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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season

« on: October 31, 2020, 11:58:47 PM »

The 'Freeform season chatter and light commentary' is a good alternative location for casual posts, as is '2020/21 Freezing Season Predictions' for one-day records and 'Smart and Stupid Questions Feel Free To Ask' for people wanting to become better informed.

Agree to all the above.

It's been quite interesting to read the 'device' forum. No question, desktops are the new buggy whip ...  I have an iPhone, it's read-only, can't do any work, can't display the graphics properly. So who wants to make tiny pictures for a vanishing audience? The cost of a used 21" iMac like the 2009 used above is ~$150 if that (make coffee/sandwich at home, skip starbucks.)

Indeed I echo the sentiment, a computer enables much more effective contributions.

The rest I will take as constructive criticism. Yes, each community member can and should strive to do more. Yes, the stuff is doable. No, I don't think there is apathy. And I still encourage all to post, within guidelines. This is especially true for new users who are not sure if their contributions are worth as much as the very quality stuff posted here. My answer is yes, more participation is desirable, and initial posts are always the hardest. At worst, posters could get some flak, but don't give up. If posts don't fit I can always move them elsewhere. The other threads mentioned above are certainly useful and appropriate for various types of posts, and feel free to practice there.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season

« on: October 31, 2020, 03:03:04 PM »

the current situation isn’t really comparable to the history we have

Right. Where and why did "peak gains" occur, how might that location data be interpreted, what will the gains be tomorrow? Does not daily extent trivia belong on the extent forum?

I see zero interest in endlessly boring copy/pasting off the NSIDC site followed by droning on and on in October about maybe-records next March and Sept 2021. One-day records don't adequately characterize the situation in the Arctic to begin with, plus we don't have the slightest basis yet to predict what will happen.

Maybe we need a separate forum for the actual freezing season. Here we are in the middle of an incredible ongoing open water anomaly event on the Siberian side and we can only muster 5-6 people out of 1783 members to contribute anything. A cargo cult has developed.

There is a tremendous amount to do given three very informative NEW sources of data on top of the usuals. Analysis is just a click or two away but only a few will take those clicks. Many hands make light work: it doesn't get any easier than plotting sea surface temperatures from buoys, it's high school complexity.

Tracking the unprecedented nature of the current freezing season is essential to understanding why it happened, what consequences are likely to follow, and whether it is one-off weather or beginnings of an annual trend. The fall season is peak Arctic Amplification, not a word about it here.

The first, attribution, has seen hand-waving -- but no apportionment -- about early melt, high insolation of resulting open water and winds mixing ice, combined with a Siberian heat wave and overall temperature anomaly. Some aspects of this are newly doable. The second, eg mapping rate of regional growth of ice thickness, is newly feasible from observables. The last needs a global model perspective so best we can do there is find the better journal treatments.

A-Team, your educational efforts and your analytic contributions are greatly appreciated, and have been served rather generously lately which makes me a very happy reader. However, I must make some moderator comments here:
* Posting "boring" data gathered from various sites may not be glamorous or interesting to some, but it is an important contribution to the forum nonetheless, appreciated by many readers.
* Various extrapolations and discussions of extent data belong in this thread, while the data itself belongs in the data thread. Admittedly current extrapolations to 2021 min (or max) are IMHO meaningless, but they are still allowed and some readers appreciate them.
* Not all users are as analytically or scientifically capable, or have available time, or priorities, or confidence, to contribute as much as others. I know I am quite capable with Excel and some charts but lack both time, ability and inclination to deal with Panoply, netcdf and various other related matters. Tried and failed. So I consume what others produce, I appreciate, I thank, I even press "Like" which might be meaningless to most. But that's all I can do at this present time.
* I think the uptake of these data new sources is slowly growing, and the educational efforts are paying off. More users are joining the heavy analysis bandwagon. However, results take time and patience.
* I encourage users to post their best opinion even if not backed up by hard science or rigorous data (as long as posts are limited in number and length, so as not to drown the thread(s) in noise). Wide participation is an important value and promotes a higher readership in the long term.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news

« on: September 21, 2020, 11:34:49 AM »

great uniquorn contributions to forums

Looks like uniquorn was given some kind of big award for buoy work!

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season

« on: August 20, 2020, 09:57:00 AM »

Latest daily sea ice change

Some ice has re-appeared in the Chukchi sea, but the main feature is the compaction across the Beaufort/Chukchi, as show by the red along the edges and increased concentration. Similar is apparent along the Atlantic ice front

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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: August 15, 2020, 01:37:22 PM »

As I was saying before I was so rudely interrupted by my daughter's dog.....

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,039,562 KM2 as at 14-Aug-2020

- Extent loss on this day 82k, 24 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 58k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,408 k, 555 k, 6.3% more than the 10 year average of 8,853 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  271 k MORE than 2019,
- Extent is  295 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  389 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  145 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 89.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 31 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.94 million km2, 0.76 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

For a record low, remaining melt needs to be  69.6% or more above average.
For the 2020 minimum to be above the 2019 minimum of 3.96 million km2,  remaining melt needs to be  1.6% or more below the previous 10 years average remaining melt.

Like most of us, I have been bemused by the rotten state of the sea ice so clearly shown on the melting season thread while measured sea ice losses have been so low. Just maybe today's above average extent loss is the beginning of sea ice disintegration being reflected in extent loss.
______________________________
N.B. Click once on an image to make it full-size

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season

« on: July 02, 2020, 06:34:20 PM »

In case anyone is interested in an on-the-ground perspective on this year's melting season, I put together a time-lapse video using still images from the observatory's webcam here in Alert.  The video covers 12 days from June 18-30, which includes the record-breaking June high temperature of 18.6°C recorded on the 28th.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Yukon River breakup is up - Place your guess for the breakup date here

« on: April 22, 2020, 07:40:59 PM »

Totally off-topic (?)....

I wanted the gold, and I sought it;
   I scrabbled and mucked like a slave.
Was it famine or scurvy—I fought it;
   I hurled my youth into a grave.
I wanted the gold, and I got it— 
   Came out with a fortune last fall,—
Yet somehow life’s not what I thought it,
   And somehow the gold isn’t all.

No! There’s the land. (Have you seen it?)
   It’s the cussedest land that I know,
From the big, dizzy mountains that screen it
   To the deep, deathlike valleys below.
Some say God was tired when He made it;
   Some say it’s a fine land to shun;
Maybe; but there’s some as would trade it
   For no land on earth—and I’m one.

You come to get rich (damned good reason);
   You feel like an exile at first;
You hate it like hell for a season,
   And then you are worse than the worst.
It grips you like some kinds of sinning;
   It twists you from foe to a friend;
It seems it’s been since the beginning;
   It seems it will be to the end.

I’ve stood in some mighty-mouthed hollow
   That’s plumb-full of hush to the brim;
I’ve watched the big, husky sun wallow
   In crimson and gold, and grow dim,
Till the moon set the pearly peaks gleaming,
   And the stars tumbled out, neck and crop;
And I’ve thought that I surely was dreaming,
   With the peace o’ the world piled on top.

The summer—no sweeter was ever;
   The sunshiny woods all athrill;
The grayling aleap in the river,
   The bighorn asleep on the hill.
The strong life that never knows harness;
   The wilds where the caribou call;
The freshness, the freedom, the farness—
   O God! how I’m stuck on it all.

The winter! the brightness that blinds you,
   The white land locked tight as a drum,
The cold fear that follows and finds you,
   The silence that bludgeons you dumb.
The snows that are older than history,
   The woods where the weird shadows slant;
The stillness, the moonlight, the mystery,
   I’ve bade ’em good-by—but I can’t.

There’s a land where the mountains are nameless,
   And the rivers all run God knows where;
There are lives that are erring and aimless,
   And deaths that just hang by a hair;
There are hardships that nobody reckons;
   There are valleys unpeopled and still;
There’s a land—oh, it beckons and beckons,
   And I want to go back—and I will.

They’re making my money diminish;
   I’m sick of the taste of champagne.
Thank God! when I’m skinned to a finish
   I’ll pike to the Yukon again.
I’ll fight—and you bet it’s no sham-fight;
   It’s hell!—but I’ve been there before;
And it’s better than this by a damsite—
   So me for the Yukon once more.

There’s gold, and it’s haunting and haunting;
   It’s luring me on as of old;
Yet it isn’t the gold that I’m wanting
   So much as just finding the gold.
It’s the great, big, broad land ’way up yonder,
   It’s the forests where silence has lease;
It’s the beauty that thrills me with wonder,
   It’s the stillness that fills me with peace.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season

« on: April 12, 2020, 04:52:47 PM »

TB, I hope you can cool down and not take offense. But I also ask you to continue any further discussions of moderation actions to the Forum Decorum thread.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season

« on: April 12, 2020, 04:16:02 PM »

I have the research for what I said.

Linked research is one of the biggest reasons I am a regular here. Could you provide the link on the BOE thread?

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season

« on: April 12, 2020, 09:34:00 AM »

 Actually yes, it is.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season

« on: April 12, 2020, 08:50:55 AM »

I've decided to let #269 stand, in all its dubious glory, as I'm more concerned with denialism of science than with silly insults. However TB is on my radar screen, should this continue.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season

« on: April 12, 2020, 08:26:23 AM »

Oren may have a little more moderating to do.  See comment #269 upthread.

I thought that as well!

The "Skeptical Science style" of moderation has a lot to recommend it, if you have the time to do it well.

Thanks Oren.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012

« on: August 03, 2019, 11:38:49 AM »

8/01/2019 = -51k
                = 5.91M km sq., a record low for the date.

8/02/2019 = -60k, or 5.85M

Daily Change to Exceed 2012 Record Daily Lows

8/03/2012 = 6.03M km sq.
8/02/2019 = Gain of < 180k km sq. required for the record.

 Call it -65k+/-10k to 5.785 (5.79).

Analysis: I don't see anything that's going to change the daily numbers much for 8/03. We've had a 40k, 50k, and 60k day in the last three days largely because, imo, the wind direction favors expansion of the sea ice, particularly in areas where concentration is low allowing for easy wind effect. That still holds: Winds coming off of the CAA and Greenland aid compaction, but there's precious little space to move with the main ice pack sitting there; winds from Svalbard to Russia generally favor expansion, but the island chain is there and there are some crossing winds muching things up. There's a cyclone straddling the Bering Strait which currently  should be creating a net expansion of ice. Later in the day this one moves north of the CAA and another is entering the Bering Strait... cancelling each other out?

A push. Another middling day mostly because all the mush on the Pacific side and along Siberia should continue melting, plus a little help along the CAA and Greenland.

Caveat: All that mush. A bunch of it could melt away due to the cyclones.

Daily Changes Needed to Exceed 2012 low on Aug. 10. (Related to effect of GAC and it's import vs. 2019's melt cycle.)

8/10/2012 stood at 4.94M km sq.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 113.75k km sq. for a record low on this post-GAC date. (9 days.)

I fully expect 2019 to have a higher extent than 2012 sometime between the 5th and 7th, and much more likely the 5th or 6th than the 7th except for the "caveat" above. We could see very little actual ice loss over the next 8 days and still see a huge drop in extent if that mush melts away.

Daily Changes Needed to Exceed 2012 Record Low on Sept. 15. (Related to comparison of 2012 vs 2019's melt cycle.)

9/15/2012 stood at 3.18M km sq. on this date.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 60.68k km sq. for a record low on this date. (45 days)

This still has a fair chance of happening, but gets less likely each day these small meltouts happen. The caveat is... the above caveat. There's an awful lot of low concentration ASI right now and if that all melts out, things will be getting interesting.

Will 2019 get it's "big week in June" and/or "big week in August?"

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data

« on: October 06, 2018, 07:29:09 AM »

And here is an extract from the JAXA Global Graph, to show that the pen is still writing on the unused part of the paper.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data

« on: October 05, 2018, 09:43:31 AM »

And here is an extract from the JAXA Global Graph, to show that the pen is still writing on the unused part of the paper.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data

« on: September 07, 2018, 06:05:38 AM »

[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

September 6^th, 2018: 4,704,891 km², a drop of -12,429 km².
2018 is the 8^th lowest on record.

PS: Have you notice that the 12^th lowest years today, are the 12^th last years?
If we are concern about climate change, should we be looking at this, instead of thinking that we need a catastrophe on a single year to prove a catastrophe on climate?

1 Like