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Messages - edmountain

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Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: February 07, 2020, 09:14:55 PM »
It is time for the monthly update of my extrapolation when the extent [Extent], volume [Volumen], thickness [Dicke] and area [Fläche] will reach zero. The extrapolation occured linearly and by a logarithmic function; the latter one almost constantly resulting in earlier times (valid for volume, area and thickness, not for extent in the winter months). The January value now includes 2020.
Extent, area and volume for January 2020 lie well above the long term trend lines whereas thickness is only slightly above it. The "BOE numbers" increased by averaged 8 years (extent) and 2 years (volume) whereas the "BOE number" for thickness has decreased by 3 years compared to January 2019.
The order (earlier → later BOE) generally is volume < thickness < area < extent.

Please note that this is not a forecast but a trend!
See attached table. stg = slope.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: December 13, 2019, 07:20:04 PM »
dnem, do you think that when, for instance, your country is at war and under attack, that the GDP metric will have any importance?
Of course not. Everything will be put on hold because there has to be an immediate and radical response. Anything other is insane.
Remember the Montreal Protocol? Immediate and radical response from the whole planet.

binntho, the only acceptable goal should be: he survival of the human race and society (from civilisation's viewpoint).

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 15, 2018, 04:26:02 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 14 October (5 day trailing average) =  3,894,678 km2

Total Area gain on this day 93 k, 3k less than the 2010's average, area now 743 k less than 2017.

Peripheral Seas loss        3 k,
Central Seas     gain       99 k,                                 
Other Seas       loss         0.7 k, (Okhotsk)
CAB Seas
Beaufort Sea                 gain    21 k
Canadian Archipelago    gain     18 k
East Siberian Sea (ESS) gain     25 k ,
Central Arctic Sea          gain     25 k,

Arctic temperature anomaly staying at around 4 celsius until.....? But as darkness descends temperatures continue to drop like a stone. See attached image. Freezing has taken hold. Attention switches to the pace of that freezing and where it is happening. On this day strong gain in the CAB seas while the Greenland Sea lost 5k (warm weather coming in?).

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