Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Consequences => Topic started by: Sigmetnow on January 24, 2021, 09:01:10 PM

Title: Hurricane Season 2021
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 24, 2021, 09:01:10 PM
New year, new storms.

Mark Sudduth
Off-Season Discussion for January 18, 2021
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=acsKFq6c_-Y&feature=youtu.be

From:
HurricaneTrack.com- Hurricane News, Information and Live Field Coverage of Landfalls
http://hurricanetrack.com/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2021
Post by: Richard Rathbone on February 10, 2021, 11:04:23 PM
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/02/tropical-cyclone-faraji-in-indian-ocean-is-first-category-5-storm-of-2021/

Not an immediate threat to land, might end up on Madagascar late next week.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2021
Post by: vox_mundi on February 12, 2021, 09:50:33 PM
Increasing Hurricane Intensity Around Bermuda Linked to Rising Ocean Temperatures
https://phys.org/news/2021-02-hurricane-intensity-bermuda-linked-ocean.html

New research shows that hurricane maximum wind speeds in the subtropical Atlantic around Bermuda have more than doubled on average over the last 60 years due to rising ocean temperatures in the region.

Between 1955 and 2019 mean hurricane intensity near Bermuda, measured by the maximum wind speed, increased from 35 to 73mph - equivalent to over 6mph per decade.  At the same time sea surface and sub surface temperatures in the region increase by upto 1.1°C, providing the additional energy for hurricanes to intensify.

The study, published in Environmental Research Letters,  also develops a predictor for the intensity of hurricanes moving through the Bermuda area using the average upper ocean temperature in the top 50m layer.

Mark Guishard, co-author and Director of the Bermuda Weather Service said "the research demonstrates the greater relevance of upper ocean heat versus sea surface temperatures alone in the prediction of hurricane intensity. Preliminary testing with the recent passage of Hurricane Paulette shows promising results that this technique could be further developed into an additional operational tool for forecasters locally."

These findings are the result of a statistical analysis on hurricane paths within 100km of Bermuda, between 1955 and 2019. The research used surface and subsurface ocean temperature observations from the Bermuda Atlantic Times Series (BATS) Hydrostation S program, managed by the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences.

Samantha Hallam et al, Increasing tropical cyclone intensity and potential intensity in the subtropical Atlantic around Bermuda from an ocean heat content perspective 1955- 2019, Environmental Research Letters (2021)
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abe493
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2021
Post by: vox_mundi on February 27, 2021, 06:04:40 AM
Watch 2020’s Hurricane Season Unfold In a Mesmerizing Four-Minute Timelapse
https://www.theverge.com/2021/2/26/22302913/2020-hurricane-season-storms-nasa-timelapse-noaa

This week, NASA released a grim four-minute timelapse of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, a mesmerizing display of last year’s record-breaking string of tropical commotion.

https://youtu.be/Mh3FyTwAVuA

2020’s season “smashed records with an unprecedented 30 named storms, marking the fifth year in a row with above-average hurricane activity,” NASA said in a blog accompanying the video.

The agency’s Scientific Visualization Studio used a complex algorithm to process and merge hordes of data from an array of weather satellites in orbit, combining it with estimates and observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center and National Hurricane Center.

The product is a fascinating four-minute and 26-second look at last year’s hurricane activity, unfolding in a colorful display of wispy cyclone formations tumbling across the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea.

... “The bar has been raised,” Brian McNoldy, a senior researcher at the University of Miami’s Marine and Atmospheric Science school, tweeted last week. “When we mention the average number of named storms, hurricanes, & major hurricanes, we’re typically referring to a recent 30-year ‘climate normal’. We’ve been using 1981-2010, but now we have 1991-2020, and the counts have increased by 12-19%.”

Last year’s Atlantic hurricane season was the fifth costliest on record, causing roughly $60 billion in economic damage, according to a report from AccuWeather. The most expensive season on record was in 2017, hitting $306.2 billion in costs.

“Climate normals are updated each decade to keep up with a changing climate,” McNoldy said. “What was normal 50 years ago isn’t normal now.”

Hurricane season, June 1st, 2021, is less than 100 days away.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2021
Post by: Juan C. García on March 05, 2021, 01:51:08 AM
Quote
New climate ‘normal’ for Atlantic hurricanes shows more frequent and intense storms
By Matthew Cappucci and Andrew Freedman
March 3, 2021 at 11:38 a.m. CST

During the most recent 30-year period, which spans 1991 to 2020, there has been an uptick in the number of named storms and an increase in the frequency of major hurricanes of category 3 intensity or greater in the Atlantic.
...
That comes as no surprise amid a spate of extreme hurricane activity that has featured seven Category 5 storms swirling across Atlantic waters in just the past five years.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/03/03/hurricanes-atlantic-climate-normal/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/03/03/hurricanes-atlantic-climate-normal/)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2021
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 17, 2021, 08:08:48 PM
Goodbye Greek names for tropical cyclones! Hello supplemental name lists, via ⁦‪@WMO‬⁩ press release:  
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/supplemental-list-of-tropical-cyclone-names-raiv
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2021
Post by: vox_mundi on March 18, 2021, 02:56:14 PM
Precise Prediction of Hurricane Power vs. Ocean Temperature
https://phys.org/news/2021-03-precise-hurricane-power-ocean-temperature.html

Researchers have been studying the relation between water temperature and hurricane frequency for years now. There have been suggestions that as temperature increases, storms become more powerful.

Now, Tandon researcher Edward Wolf has released new research that confirms both facts. In studying recent hurricane data, Wolf was able to pinpoint the ocean temperature where it becomes possible for hurricanes to form. That temperature is approximately 26.5 degrees Celsius. Much like how water boils at 100 degrees Celsius (and not a degree lower), weather patterns cannot phase change into a hurricane until this water temperature is met.

Wolf also developed a simple algorithm that can predict the severity of a storm by measuring the temperature of the water beneath it. As the temperature goes up, the severity of the storm increases in a consistent and measurable manner. Not only does this prove that water temperature and storm strength are directly linked, it could be a tool to efficiently gauge the strength of a storm—an early warning system that could help communities in its path prepare.

Wolf's research also provides one surprising detail: the algorithm describing how storm severity increases in proportion to ocean temperatures finds a direct analog in ferromagnetism—the strength of an iron magnet's field: the temperature-defined phase change of ferromagnetism follows the same critical exponent formula T-Tc ⅓ determining shift to magnetism at specific temperatures.

Researchers are now able to use the vast scientific literature on ferromagnetism in order to study hurricane formation, which by its nature has less raw data to work with. Wolf was able to use previous iron studies to fine tune his algorithm, producing even finer data.

Precise Prediction of Hurricane Power vs Ocean Temperature, International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. Vol. 5, No. 1, 2021, pp. 1-5.
http://www.ijaos.org/article/298/10.11648.j.ijaos.20210501.11
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2021
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 22, 2021, 06:47:33 PM
U.S.
Quote
National Weather Service
@NWS 3/22/21, 1:21 PM

.@NOAA’s flagship weather model is undergoing a major #upgrade today to improve weather forecasts for hurricanes, snowfall, and heavy rain.
...
The upgraded GFS model now has double the vertical resolution and for the first time is coupled with a global wave model to extend wave forecasts out from 10 to 16 days. We put more horsepower in the #GFS engine.

Read more at http://noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-upgrades-flagship-us-global-weather-model 
https://twitter.com/nws/status/1374048646992396288
⬇️ Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2021
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 08, 2021, 08:46:04 PM
Brad Panovich on Twitter:  Dr. Phil Klotzbach has released his first installment of the 2021 Hurricane Season outlook for the Atlantic basin. He is expecting another above-average season for the Atlantic. The full write-up is in the link:
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2021-04.pdf
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2021
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 10, 2021, 11:50:16 AM
Is this the "tropical cyclone" thread too?

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/10/western-australia-cyclones-evacuations-ordered-as-odette-and-seroja-loom

Quote
Residents of Geraldton in Western Australia’s mid-west have been warned to brace for destructive cyclonic winds of a kind not seen in the area for decades.

Two cyclones were bearing down on the state’s mid-west and north-west coast on Saturday afternoon.

The first, tropical Cyclone Odette, was downgraded from cyclone strength on Saturday morning but was still expected to bring strong winds to the Exmouth region and parts of the Gascoyne coast. Cyclones are more common in the far north-west and buildings are designed to withstand such events.

But authorities say Odette is likely be absorbed by the second cyclone, Cyclone Seroja, which is causing authorities the most concern.

It was expected to make landfall much further south on Sunday or early Monday, between Carnarvon and Jurien Bay, which sit to the north and south of Geraldton respectively.

Geraldton, with a population of 37,648, is not built to withstand cyclones and residents are not used to dealing with such extreme weather events, authorities said.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2021
Post by: vox_mundi on April 10, 2021, 02:32:47 PM
Quote
Is this the "tropical cyclone" thread too?

Yes: Typhoons, Cyclones, and Hurricanes ...

--------------------------------------------------

A Spectacular Fujiwhara Effect Happens With Merging Tropical Cyclones Seroja and Odette, Both Head for a Rare and Damaging Impact to Australia This Weekend
https://www.severe-weather.eu/tropical-weather/fujiwhara-effect-cyclone-seroja-odette-australia-landfall-mk/

(https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/tropical/fujiwhara-effect-cyclone-seroja-odette-australia-landfall-merging-systems.png)

We don’t see this very often, but the tropical region is facing two merging cyclones this week. A so-called Fujiwhara effect of tropical cyclone Seroja and Odette revealed a spectacular satellite view. Seroja will be a dominant feature of both and turns towards western Australia with an extremely dangerous landfall with severe winds and flooding on Sunday.

The Fujiwhara effect can make forecasting track and intensity even more challenging, as a number of weather scenarios can occur with the general track and also intensity. One system typically becoming more dominant and overtakes the weaker one.

On rare occasions, the two systems can combine into one larger and intense system (as is this case), or they destroy each other. Tropical Cyclone Seroja reaches a Category 3 intensity this weekend, while the tropical low is expected to be of much weaker intensity.

(https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/tropical/fujiwhara-effect-cyclone-seroja-odette-australia-landfall-diagram.png)

... Modeled wind swath suggests that the approach of tropical cyclone Seroja will include severe winds, potentially becoming violent prior to the landfall of the system on Sunday. Wind gusts will be dangerous along the coast, possibly with gusts 140-170 km/h at the landfall.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=aus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021041006&fh=6
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2021
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 11, 2021, 01:26:21 PM
The latest on Seroja from the BoM:

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDW24100.html

Quote
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 27.4 degrees South 113.4 degrees East, estimated to be 85 kilometres west northwest of Kalbarri and 195 kilometres northwest of Geraldton.

Movement: southeast at 48 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Seroja lies close to the WA coast north of Kalbarri. It is moving rapidly towards the southeast, and is likely to cross the coast between Kalbarri and Geraldton this evening. Impacts are occurring about the coast between Carnarvon and Geraldton, and conditions will deteriorate further during this evening.

Seroja has maintained its intensity during the past few hours and a category 3 coastal impact is now more likely.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2021
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 13, 2021, 12:54:16 PM
EUMetSat on the Fujiwhara effect:

https://www.eumetsat.int/tropical-cyclone-seroja-undergoes-fujiwhara-effect