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Messages - wallen

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 23, 2020, 02:07:20 PM »
A tad off subject, but I would like to give credit to Oren, for his handling of the Moderator position during this melt season. I am sure at times he may have felt that Neven handed him a stick of dynamite. At times the comments this season have been fair contentious, but I think Oren has reigned with the required fairness and discipline.

Thank you Oren.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 11:22:56 AM »
Quote from: pauldry600 on August 20, 2020, 10:02:47 AM
Why are people more excited at the ice disappearing and getting their figures right than the disaster the planet now faces because of this?
When we are all looking at the side effects of the melted Arctic will some people be saying well at least my JAXA prediction was right.

Would suggest that most are so tired of trying for years to get those in power, to put the right policies and steps in place to address the issue.  Sadly, nothing that goes on from the science side is likely to have the required impact, unless there is an 'Armageddon" like event. So maybe the sooner the better. FRIV alluded to this, earlier in the season.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 05:26:49 AM »
Tend agree with Friv, about 2020 not finishing 3rd or higher. Given the state of the ice and the considerable extent lead it still has over the previous years. Gerontocrat's assessment that as at 29/7 (For the minimum to be above 4.0 million km2,  remaining melt needs to be  20.0% or more below the previous 10 years average remaining melt.), I believe gives credence to this.

This aside, I am curious as to what would be the worst specific scenario(Weather wise) for the ice from now to the end of the melt season.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 10:07:51 AM »
Seen several mentions of MYI. Except for the odd floe, seems to be next none of it left.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 04:59:56 AM »
The number of people here  that appear to be suddenly jumping off the record melt band wagon. The high that hung around for ever and a day has moved and Jaxa finally had a sub 100k day. 99k(Shock horror) .

Meanwhile 2020 as at 21/7 was still 626k lower than any other year. Looking at  the AMSR 2 image for 22/7, I wont be surprised if it jumps up again, as the ESS appears to have vanished over night.

 Gerontocrats data(As at 21/7) shows that just average melt will still see an extent of 3.29million km2 . For it to finish 4+ million km2, it would have to have 24% less than average melt.

The heat built into the waters particularly on the Russian side, most certainly isn't going to disappear in a blink.

While the weather patterns aren't showing a super doom high. It hasn't backed off to non melting conditions. Don't know what temperatures are occurring in the various regions, but the anomalies look to to be reasonably high.

I certainly am no scientist of any type, but even to a blind Freddie like me, it is likely to take something special to stop the rest of this melt season in it's tracks.

Whether it breaks 2012 is to be seen, but it has a been a season to remember, with a lot to learn from and still a long way to go.


6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 08:44:03 AM »
At this rate, there will be next to no sea ice left south of 80N and the arc between 90E and 150E, by the end of July. Wonder when this last happened ?

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 10, 2020, 07:52:20 AM »
At this rate any thoughts of several large polynas opening well inside 80N and added impact?

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 16, 2020, 01:35:45 PM »
I know am a novice at this, but cracking in various directions to this extent deep in the CAB, I would think is very concerning, this early in the melting season. See Worldview 16/4 towards the pole from the ESS.  Would ad a pic but not good at this...yet.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: October 02, 2019, 07:15:58 AM »
When you look at Worldview and see the "Blackout " area extending daily, is this the extending limit of 24 hour darkness or a visual limitation of the satellite as the Arctic progresses toward winter.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 03, 2019, 06:12:46 AM »
Think it is going to need the Bering Strait and Svalbard and possibly FJL to be ice free at the start of the melt season. Which isn't that far fetched.

11
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: September 03, 2019, 01:44:07 AM »
Wow, looking at Lincoln Sea. No floes left that you could cork a bottle of wine with, let alone the Nares Strait

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 07, 2019, 06:51:49 AM »
When your going down the highway at 100mph and another vehicle goes past you at 150mph. :o

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 02, 2019, 05:52:03 AM »
With approx 40 days till the end of the melt season, all cards are still on the deck.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 27, 2018, 07:54:46 AM »
Been reading an awful lot of speculation of the direction the "Melt season"  is headed. I am not a scientist, but an interested observer who has followed this forum for several years. My thoughts... The "Melt season" has a very, very long way to go.

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