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Messages - romett1

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: April 06, 2021, 01:27:22 AM »
The next week's animation should be interesting . The low complex N. of Norway seems destined to slowly move to the central Arctic , while high pressure is maintained over G'land and north Canada . This should increase the crackopalypse already apparent from Fram to beyond the pole as the winds remain strong across the region . 
I'm also wondering if there is almost non-stop Fram export for the next 7 - 9 days what the picture will be. Currently Canadian satellite image shows this. I marked myself those two arrows in red.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: April 04, 2021, 02:45:04 PM »
3 day average wind speed and direction says it's not quite peaceful and tranquil between Norway and Greenland. But yes it is interesting to see the effects of this to Barents and Kara (Barents will get the wind first).

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: March 21, 2021, 07:55:48 PM »
Fram export will be brutal if the forecast doesn't change...
Hello everybody. I haven’t been active here for ages. But Fram export is always fascinating – this floe (marked in red) has moved about 38 km in just one day.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: December 10, 2020, 11:04:14 PM »
Without a substantial increase in extent on tomorrows update, looks like we'll be back to lowest on record.
Main reason seems to be the area east to Novaya Zemlya - Dec 9, 2020 vs Dec 9, 2019.
Models are still showing sea surface temperatures to be above 0 °C in some parts of the Kara Sea on Dec 19.


5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 16, 2020, 10:08:38 PM »
Canuck maps show Hudson refreeze is progressing rapidly, I anticipate the evacuation of all this heat / release of heat associated with freezing will deal the ATL front continued blows for the next few weeks, I would not be surprised to see the front retreat dramatically in Kara / Laptev / Barentz vicinity.
Hudson and areas surrounding it are indeed forecasted to be much colder than average. And everything between Bering Sea and Barents Sea (including Beaufort) is relatively warm (7 day forecast mean).

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 16, 2020, 07:49:02 AM »
Today's a warm day on the Atlantic Front
And nice 7 - 9 m waves most of today.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 12, 2020, 04:34:06 PM »
Meanwhile new November record of 9.4 °C was just broken for Svalbard (previous record was 7.5 °C).

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/climate-crisis/2020/11/record-november-warmth-svalbard

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 03, 2020, 09:02:23 PM »
There is lot of warmth on the way from the Atlantic towards Laptev between Nov 11 and Nov 13. Still far away but worth to look at.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 03, 2020, 07:37:30 PM »
ESS, Laptev between Oct 30 and Nov 2 and 7-day outlook. Sea surface temp forecast for Nov 12 also added, seems like it takes some time until Laptev freezes over.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 02, 2020, 07:56:26 PM »
ESS between Oct 29 and Nov 1 and 7-day outlook.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 01, 2020, 10:51:01 AM »
ESS between Oct 31 and Oct 28 and 7-day outlook.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 31, 2020, 01:58:04 PM »
Ob-Kara region - gains between Oct 30 and Oct 28. However looking at 7-day outlook things are not that rosy.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 28, 2020, 06:23:49 AM »
3-day average wind forecast - Kara, Laptev, ESS, Chukchi all restless. Especially Kara Sea.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 22, 2020, 08:22:03 PM »
Thanks for the updates - it's crazy to think that on average 141 days to maximum. I'm starting to think this way - Nov 1 seems to be still "hot", we can say from there about 130 days to maximum.
130 days is 7.80% less than 141 days.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 15, 2020, 11:38:54 AM »
It is impressive that we are still losing ice within the 85°N parallel.
Yep - difference between Sept 14 and Sept 9.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 14, 2020, 11:56:32 AM »
Difference between today and Saturday - those winds have pushed ice edge some 40 - 50 km further north towards North Pole.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 12, 2020, 10:51:31 AM »
Scorpion tail Sept 11 vs Sept 6. It's getting slightly thinner visually and moving towards Banks Island and Canadian coast.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 10, 2020, 12:28:32 PM »
Will that wind in the Beaufort sea create big enough waves to destroy the last remainder of the Beaufort scorpion tail? Or is the freshwater there too cold for that?
Thinking same here. Waves about 2 - 2.5 m are starting to hit the area today. And then between Sunday to Tuesday similar or even larger waves forecasted. Picture - today's wave forecast in about three hours.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 26, 2020, 08:30:13 PM »
A mess is coming up above the Fram, will it happen this time? It does seem so.
Latest 10m wind gust forecast for hours 51 - 75 GFS (Fri - Sat).
Some Fram export if true.


20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 22, 2020, 06:39:51 AM »
Jaxa dropped -98K today.

Almost another century break.
5 day difference shows most of it came from the Pacific side. But also Atlantic front is worth looking at. Not to mention situation north of Greenland.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 07:46:19 PM »

And so here is the next question; How much open water will we see between Greenland and the pole next week?

10m GFS wind gust forecast between Mon and Fri next week - area between Greenland and North Pole is going to be really interesting.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 22, 2020, 10:02:33 PM »
5 day difference - look how quickly dark and even white areas vanish over ESS.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 22, 2020, 09:15:27 AM »
In this sector open water area today roughly about 55,000 km² (yesterday 50,000 km²).

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 21, 2020, 09:52:09 AM »
In this sector open water area today roughly about 50,000 km². And winds about 6 - 8 m/s continue today, tomorrow.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 17, 2020, 11:44:19 PM »
Looks like a polar bear (today's Worldview).

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 08:21:48 AM »
00Z GFS - Slightly updated forecast. 3.5 MB file. Compared to previous (12Z) forecast now 986 is appearing.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 11:00:35 PM »
Animated version Monday to Thursday next week. Warning: 3.1 MB file.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 08:00:00 PM »
12Z GFS - This is forecast for July 22th - wind and rain over North Pole. Not too far away.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 09:01:38 AM »
3-day average 10m wind speed forecast (GFS) - Laptev -> North Pole.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 12, 2020, 01:51:47 PM »
3-day average 10m wind speed forecast (GFS) - wind is really picking up over Laptev.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 10, 2020, 03:24:23 AM »
18Z GFS - Browsing through July 19th - H 1033 still sitting there.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 08, 2020, 08:36:32 PM »
3-day average 10m wind speed forecast (GFS) - today's forecast vs Tuesday's forecast. Area north to Svalbard to watch, also area around Franz Josef Land.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 08:24:09 PM »
3-day average 10m wind speed forecast (GFS) - today's forecast vs Monday's forecast. Slightly less wind (but still a wind) over ESS and Laptev over the next three days. At the same time windy conditions continue over the area north of Svalbard and especially around Franz Josef Land.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 05:26:04 AM »
Uni Bremen July 6 - North Pole  :o

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 06, 2020, 09:24:55 PM »
3-day average 10m wind speed forecast (GFS) - today's forecast vs Sunday's forecast. Seems like more wind towards North Pole, Fram Strait.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 05, 2020, 09:09:06 PM »
12Z GFS - So the big high is going to establish itself over Beaufort after finishing North Pole? This is forecast for July 15th. Still far away, but worth looking at.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 05, 2020, 12:28:27 PM »
3-day forecasted average 10m wind speed (GFS) - today's forecast vs Saturday's forecast.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 04, 2020, 05:21:42 PM »
Today's Worldview - I don't know the outcome if this area should get some kind of strong cyclone.

39
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 27, 2020, 12:36:02 PM »
Using the link (JayW post yesterday) a new crack has developed.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 27, 2020, 10:09:01 PM »
Latest June 4th forecast for Laptev coast is a bit less dramatic than yesterday's. But still - this image is for June 6th, Climate Reanalyzer.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 26, 2020, 10:57:54 PM »
Seems like wild temperatures are starting to reappear near Laptev coast next week. This image is for June 4th, Climate Reanalyzer.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 09, 2020, 04:28:54 PM »
Fram export May 04 - May 09. There is this relatively big block interesting to follow. Images: Worldview.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 22, 2019, 07:14:15 PM »
Kotelny Island next week is really hot - this is forecast for June 27 (Windy.com).

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 03, 2018, 11:44:58 AM »
Speaking about Lena River Delta, then quite high temperatures (+25.3 °C) forecasted for Wednesday.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 27, 2018, 12:11:25 PM »
5-day difference (May 26 vs May 21). Laptev, Baffin, Beaufort and Barents usual suspects. Kara and ESS are so far holding on. Images: ftp://ftp-projects.cen.uni-hamburg.de/seaice/AMSR2/

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 26, 2018, 01:06:41 PM »
Just wanted to say that I highly appreciate both A-Team's and gerontocrat posts. Sometimes you see something interesting and just post short comment, sometimes you prepare for a long time and post bit more informative posts - this is the way it should be.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 15, 2018, 07:16:02 PM »
Small update about FDD (Freezing Degree Days) anomaly north of 80° N between Jan 01 and May 14. May has been significantly warmer than 2017 and looking at the weather forecast it is possible that 2016 level (since start of the year) may be reached. Image: https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/fdd

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 08, 2018, 07:44:53 PM »
Small update about FDD (Freezing Degree Days) anomaly north of 80 °N. Not surprisingly May has been warm (north of 80 °N) and still trying to chase 2016 as well (since start of the year). Image: https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/fdd

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 05, 2018, 10:07:37 AM »
As next 7 days are anyway interesting north of 80 °N, it is worth looking also longer term forecast. Current models are forecasting new heatwave from the Atlantic side between May 11 and May 16. Image for May 14: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 04, 2018, 07:22:23 PM »
Also strong winds forecast for area north of Greenland, starting around Sunday and lasting until Wednesday. Captured this 115 km/h wind gust forecast for Tuesday morning (www.windy.com).

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