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Messages - Aporia_filia

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: August 18, 2020, 11:37:34 AM »
I don't have enough knowledge, or time to improve it on these matters, but I have some experience sailing so...
There are a few discussions in the melting thread about currents, and tides. (Good to read the book posted in basic science). I just want to add some observations.
When you cross the Panama Channel is normal to see eddies forming when the different salinity waters encounter within the Channel.
Sailing south of Cape of Good Hope where cold and warm currents flow close one to the other, eddies can be seen and what is more important, waves can become crazy and very dangerous, implying a lot of mixing.
Wind flowing against a strong current can make enormous waves, even not being a very strong wind. Messina and Strait of Gibraltar are also dangerous for this.

These were not seen in the Arctic because of the ice cover, but I have no doubt that they are becoming part of the new picture.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 15, 2020, 11:48:53 AM »
I find all this sad, couse of emotions, and very interesting, couse of knowledge.
We are interested in the scientific knowledge about Climate Change and the Cryosphere which involves the quality of our future. Meaning that it would be almost impossible to separate this knowledge from emotions as the time goes.
This is a "low speed" huge crisis forming.
Now we experience a "fast speed" crisis and emotions are all over reasons.

Unfortunately, in my humble opinion, this shows pretty well how inadequate our response to the huge crisis is, and will be. Our brain is dominated by emotions, specially when some risk, fear, or pain is menacing ourselves.
We are NOT doing enough to stop this huge crisis and some parts of the world are already feeling unhabitable. People living there can only think of survival. (If they still can do)

Do you know that, nowadays, the main cause of death in the world is suicide ???
(Gaia works)

A place like this forum should be kind of aseptic with respect of uncontrolled emotions. We have distance and time to count up to twenty before answering.
We are only chatting, most people in comfortable and/or affluent places and positions. Wait for the real problems to hit your sofas and see who can you cooperate with to save your own ass.
 (Some in the forum seems to be suffering directly with the covid crisis and suddenly coming back to BAU is a priority, maybe for the total lack of collaboration)

Science / Re: Science basics-thread?
« on: August 14, 2020, 11:05:53 AM »
A good old sailing mate has sent me this book that could help clarifying basic knowledge about oceans (currents, tides...) Some chapters may need un update, but not the basic science.

Introduction To Physical Oceanography Robert H. Stewart Department of Oceanography Texas A & M University   Copyright 1997–2000

Understanding that can be shared since 2000, and thinking that sharing knowledge CANNOT be wrong:



The rest / Re: Wildlife
« on: July 28, 2020, 11:13:16 AM »
" It is obvious to those who regularly work with animals that there is no sharp difference between how human minds and other minds work. Even second order thinking (thinking about thinking) which is horribly difficult to rule in or out in animals occurs on a spectrum, as we regularly observe in people."

Agree! And that gives us, people who work/live with animals enough perspective to look at those actually rejecting the fact of an animal mind, like those "scientists" at the end of the  XIX Century rejecting a mind and a soul in those
living in tribes in lost forests.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 18, 2020, 02:28:04 PM »
This could be posted in several threads, but this one is where weather forecasts are used most frequently.

Weather forecasts have become less accurate during the COVID-19 pandemic due to the reduction in commercial flights, according to new research.

"A new study in AGU's journal Geophysical Research Letters finds the world lost 50-75% of its aircraft weather observations between March and May of this year, when many flights were grounded due to the pandemic.

Aircraft typically inform weather forecasts by recording information about air temperature, relative humidity, air pressure and wind along their flight path. With significantly fewer planes in the sky this spring, forecasts of these meteorological conditions have become less accurate and the impact is more pronounced as forecasts extend further out in time, according to the study, which is part of an ongoing special collection of research in AGU journals related to the current pandemic."...

The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: June 23, 2020, 09:58:56 AM »
Sorry nanning for the delay. These days are all work, can hardly find some time to read.
First time I came into this forest I discovered all hundreds different shades of green. I understood what was studied: our eyes can recognize more grades of the green colour than of any other colour.
And yep, fauna is plenty and diverse, from the big bears, wolves and deer, to an almost tropical variety of insects.
That's why it was designated a Biosphere Reserve by UNESCO.

The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: June 08, 2020, 10:28:58 AM »
For all of you Americans who can DO IT!!!

The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: June 05, 2020, 10:32:09 AM »

"A new solidarity movement is emerging. From Los Angeles to Sao Paulo, from Minneapolis to London, Black Lives Matter is a cry and demand heard around the world.

The message of this movement is powerfully simple: Stop killing Black people-in their homes, in the streets, and traveling by sea to safer shores. Yet in its simplicity it contains the seed of a radical transformation in our planetary system, raging against a racist dispossession machine to bring about collective and communal liberation everywhere.

The last decade has seen a radical shift in two terrifying directions: turning inward and taking drastic action. A new cohort of authoritarixs has rejected international cooperation in a retreat into the nation-state and its ancient myths of blood and soil. A new set of surveillance technologies has made us retreat further, reinforcing and militarizing state control over our communities. In addition, the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic has forced us into greater isolation, introducing in some cases the threat of a permanent state of emergency and associated martial law.

Around the world, protest movements are rising and spreading. In the streets of Santiago, young Chileans demonstrated against the widespread conditions of poverty, precariousness and police violence. Across India, millions of activists faced racism and anti-Muslim violence from the Modi government. And in Lebanon, demonstrators have challenged the closure to demand their basic rights to food, water, health care and education.

These are the planetary conditions in which protests have erupted across the United States. However, there is something exceptional about these protests - if only that they expose a deep rift in the doctrine of "American exceptionalism". We cannot ignore the particular hypocrisy of the hegemon, which boasts to the world of its "mission accomplished" and the freedoms granted while oppressing its black, brown and native populations in its own land. Nor should we overlook the openness that these protests have generated to break with this hegemonic power and move towards a decolonized and multipolar world.

An opening is an opening, not a guarantee. The scenes that have emerged from these international protests are those of a system at a breaking point. But there is no guarantee of the direction in which it will break down. It would be a grave mistake to underestimate the reactionary forces and their ability to seize the current opportunity to advance their repressive vision of "LAW & ORDER! (LAW & ORDER!), as President Trump so succinctly tweeted.

Our challenge, now and as always, is to organize: to turn these spontaneous expressions of solidarity into an enduring international movement to dismantle institutions of racist state violence and investigate human rights abuses by U.S. police departments, its prison system, and in particular its military.

That is why we founded Progressive International: to make solidarity more than a slogan. The marches in cities like Auckland and Amsterdam have sent an important signal to the US Government that the world is watching. But witnessing is not enough. Our task is to demonstrate the ways in which our solidarity can go beyond borders to give meaningful support to people fighting unequal battles in thousands of places around the world.

That means learning from the struggles of people against state violence, as in the case of the Lebanese activists who compiled a toolkit for protesters across the United States. That means providing resources, where possible, to support victims of police violence and their families. And it means identifying our respective roles in this planetary system, wherever we live, and delivering justice in our own communities.

Not all solidarity is equal. All too often, expressions of outrage about what's happening "over there" serve as a mask to ignore, dismiss, or somehow minimize the ritual violence that occurs here. Those Europeans marching to withdraw funds from the Minneapolis police could demand that their own governments stop funding Frontex, the EU border authority responsible for illegal expulsions and deportations across the Mediterranean.

The same thing happens in the opposite direction. The expansion of the US empire through the unlimited financing of its military-industrial complex has caused a boomerang effect in the country itself, arming the local police forces with the same equipment that the US has deployed in its endless wars abroad. If the protests in the United States are to give rise to a new sense of solidarity among its citizens, they must be extended to all the populations that have suffered from US imperial aggression and sustained occupation, especially the native populations on whose dispossession the nation itself was founded.

The infrastructure of the racist police is already international. Law enforcement agencies in the United States are trained by the Israeli army. U.S. arms producers supply police forces throughout Brazil. US companies provide the Indian government with surveillance technology. And American methods of stop-and-frisk (detention and search) in minority neighborhoods have been exported around the world.

The task of our Progressive International is to take stock of this international infrastructure - to listen to the activists and organizers who have dedicated their lives to this struggle - and to work with them to dismantle it: brick by brick, dollar by dollar, police department by police department."


Noam Chomsky, Hilda Heine, Ece Temelkuran, Gael García Bernal, Áurea Carolina, Celso Amorim, Renata Avila, Srecko Horvat, Scott Ludam, Carola Rackete, Yanis Varoufakis, John McDonnell, Andres Arauz, Alicia Castro, David Adler, Aruna Roy, Nikhil Dey, Ertuğrul Kürkçü, Nick Estes, Paola Vega and Eli Alcorta Gomez

Link to Progressive International:

The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: June 05, 2020, 10:01:28 AM »
In this forum there are hundreds of news and science information enough for all of us to make a radical change in the way we live.
But not even the 'conscious' members of the forum dare doing so (with glorious exceptions).

From Wili:
We're not eager to get back to normal

We're planning on how to go forward

to something that will be better

than the old fucking normal...

I have to keep thinking that part of our evolution as humanity has been becoming more and more domesticated.

Is so easy for a human to live in a bubble of illusion!

Again, all my support, Wili and rest of 'brothers'
Love and Change!

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: May 11, 2020, 03:54:38 PM »
Thanks a lot Vox, that's the way!

"Even if it were possible to get rid of swearing, it is doubtful we would actually want to. In fact, swearing can actually benefit us and our workplaces. People who can recall the most swearwords also tend to have better general linguistic abilities. A study of 75,000 Facebook users found that those who swore more on their pages were also likely to be more honest. A lab experiment found that people who were asked to swear while pedalling on an exercise bike went faster than those who were asked to repeat a neutral word. Swearing also helps people to tolerate pain and can help a work group pull together and bond. Swearwords are also great for blowing off stress or dispelling tensions without having to resort to physical violence. They also are ideal for grabbing someone’s attention.

Foul language may trigger strong emotional reactions in some snowflakes. But when foul language is used in the right way, it can be good for us and our workplaces. Those who are upset by swearing at work are unlikely to find a “safe space” to shelter from F-bombs. Perhaps it is time that they find something else to be offended about."

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 10, 2020, 11:30:27 AM »
Quote from Oren
I am getting somewhat tired of this. Almost every time a new fact is posted in this scientific thread on this scientific forum ( e.g. a dangerous but rare condition affects some children) someone starts ranting about fear mongering and Trump and the media and what have you. Surprisingly that someone is the respected admin who taught us so diligently not to derail threads and not engage in meta-discussions... can't this be discussed elsewhere? Leave this thread for science.  What is the R? The IFR? Do lockdowns make a difference? Does reopening make a difference? What do models say? What is the disease progress or decline in various countries? What various policies are enacted?
E.g. Do you think IFR is lower and flu-like? Post statistics models and estimates supporting this. Is anyone on this thread fear mongering? Report them to moderator! Will the disease affect Trump reelection? Discuss in the politics section. Do Trump's policies affect disease progression? Discuss here. Massive transfer of wealth? Discuss in the COVID economics thread. But for heaven's sake please let this thread breathe a little.


Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: May 05, 2020, 11:47:04 AM »
With respect freezing and sunflowers I found the next article from an Argentine University. It is only in Spanish but this is the translation for the interesting paragraph (South Hemisphere):

"The sunflower is the most frost-resistant crop in its germination stage, as it has a low germination temperature. But if frost occurs in its flowering stage it destroys the plant. Late-sowing sunflowers are not damaged by late frosts in September-October as they occur in frost-resistant vegetative periods; on the other hand, early-sowing sunflowers are affected by their premature sowing date, in their critical phase such as the beginning of flowering.

In the case of other crops, the most critical and vulnerable moment is the first phase of germination-emergence. In these crops, mainly in spring, a great sensitivity to sudden changes in temperature begins. A frost in spring can affect the plant, reducing its yield and even causing its death.
"The damage caused by frost is caused more by the stage of the crop in which it is found than by the intensity of the meteorological phenomenon" explained Professor Martínez Jiménez.

She added that the autumn frosts have shown practically no negative influence on the crops."

Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: May 04, 2020, 11:29:31 AM »
Thanks nanning for sharing your experiences with the garden.
A couple of comments.
My experience with sunflower is that you need them to be already growing by April, otherwise they won't be able to dry before wet and low sun time comes after August and the seeds will rotten.
Almost the same with tomatos. With these the main danger is an excess of humidity in the soil and/or the leaves.

In your little gardening space you are suffering, surrounded by rich people, what Grecian (& others) are living with respect of their rich neighborhood.   :-\ >:(

Is the Netherlands becoming a target because of their strong opposition to the so called corona bonds?

In the Netherlands, as in everywhere, there are good people and foul souls. You can find, probably, the best ethic Bank and the worse kind of psychopathic billionaires. The politicians in charge at the moment are neocons with psychopathic and racist behavior. You can call that good reasons. Every selfish person will be with you.
It has been pointed out before, but climate deniers take that same position and will not change their BAU way of living "for good reasons"

Is not new but now is much more disgusting, repulsive, how the Netherlands (and Luxembourg) are Paradise islands always ready to bleach black money and send cooperation to hell.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 28, 2020, 02:37:18 PM »
First numbers comparing normal death in this time of the year with the impact of the virus. In Spain.
Translated with Deepl from ""

The impact on lives and health of the coronavirus epidemic in Spain is very high and has not yet abated. Although the speed of death has slowed in all communities, this Saturday reached the 5,690 official deaths by adding 832 in 24 hours. The COVID-19 has been felt very strongly and has almost doubled the usual mortality in many areas of Spain such as Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha, Madrid, Aragón or Navarra. On a national level, the excess of deaths over the historical series between 21 and 25 March was 16.7%, according to the latest report published by the Carlos III Institute of Health.

On those days, the expected deaths in Spain (obtained from historical averages based on the mortality observed on 1 January 2008) were 5,661. Deaths from all causes: the observation does not distinguish between causes as it is based on data submitted by 3,900 civil registries. Those finally observed reached 6,609, an excess of 948. However, the panorama is very different according to Autonomous Community. There were "excess deaths" in Aragón, Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha, Catalunya, Comunitat Valenciana, Comunidad de Madrid and Navarra according to the situation report of 26 March 2020.

The two castes are the ones that have suffered an acceleration in mortality. Both exceed 93% excess. In Castile and Leon, the statistics estimated that 498 deaths could be expected from 18 to 25 March and 964 were observed. In Castile-La Mancha (between the 15th and 25th of this month) there were 1,137 real deaths compared to the average of 558. Another aspect that points to the effect of the COVID-19 is that the groups most affected by the increase in mortality were men (with more than 100% excess) and the ages of over 74 in Castile and Leon and 65 to 74 in Castile-La Mancha, which more than doubled the volume of deaths. According to studies carried out since the first outbreak in Wuhan (China), men and the elderly are the group with the worst diagnosis of infection.

In Aragon, from March 23rd to 25th, according to the Carlos III Institute of Health, the excess reached 75% and the group with the worst unemployment was that of 65 to 74 years of age, which long doubled its mortality: from 12 estimated to 25 reais. In the Autonomous Community of Navarre, it jumped from a historical estimate of 48 deaths to the 90 recorded. Once again, the age between 65-74 years saw a rise of 133% (from 6 to 14) and that of over 74 years of 97%: 70 deaths as opposed to the average of 36.

However, in the epicenter of the epidemic in Spain, the Community of Madrid, the data are much more behind. The system has detected an excess mortality between 10 and 17 March of 71%: 1,548 deaths compared to the 904 expected.

The Daily Mortality Surveillance (MoMo) system applies to all causes of death and in providing the results it does not specify whether the deceased had been included in the official coronavirus count, which only feeds into records where a case has been confirmed by a test as positive for COVID-19. That is, there may be deaths of patients with coronavirus that are not officially attributed to that statistic.

In addition, the report details that "at present we observe a delay in the notification of deaths in the civil registries of several autonomous communities, being notable in Galicia, Community of Madrid and La Rioja".

Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: March 25, 2020, 08:59:45 PM »
Some people already have all the answers  :o  ::)

RALPH DROLLINGER, a minister who leads a weekly Bible study group for President Donald Trump’s cabinet, released a new interpretation of the coronavirus pandemic this week, arguing that the crisis represents an act of God’s judgment.
“Relative to the coronavirus pandemic crisis, this is not God’s abandonment wrath nor His cataclysmic wrath, rather it is sowing and reaping wrath,” wrote Drollinger. “A biblically astute evaluation of the situation strongly suggests that America and other countries of the world are reaping what China has sown due to their leaders’ recklessness and lack of candor and transparency.”
Neither does he miss a chance to condemn those who worship the “religion of environmentalism” and express a “proclivity toward lesbianism and homosexuality.” These individuals, Drollinger argues in “Is God Judging America Today?”, one of the minister’s posts about coronavirus pandemic, have infiltrated “high positions in our government, our educational system, our media and our entertainment industry” and “are largely responsible for God’s consequential wrath on our nation.”

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 19, 2020, 02:30:48 PM »
 Most of us are wondering if this is gonna become personal, that's getting sick with the corona, or when getting sick. I wish the best for all.
But as we are also worried about the climate change "pandemic", what about looking at it in the same way?
Our "green revolution" last century was somehow parallel, with differences in time, to our "sanitary revolution". The victory over most infectious diseases, the victory over the land and their inhabitants to produce food. The two of them made the population boom possible.
Now we can see the backlash of the green deal and maybe find some useful knowledge from there.
The total biomass of humanity and his animals is about 90% of the world total (mammals), more or less. Ecologists say parasites are needed to keep this biosphere in order. We are gathering in megacities more and more (as it did the size of farms), plages and pandemics look as a the normal and natural things to expect in this way of living. Parasites will keep evolving to be able to use the most of the world biomass and with so little diversity to focus on, all mutations targeting humans would be favored by this fact.
What do you think?

(Don't look at us, people who has radically change their way of living, as preppers but as people who want to live in harmony with nature and be consequent with the way we think)

Consequences / Re: Global recession
« on: March 18, 2020, 10:38:29 PM »
Naomi klein view.
Coronavirus capitalism - and how to beat it

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: March 14, 2020, 12:07:14 PM »
My support, pietkuip!
I don't want to say anything wrong about A-team. I did once and regret having done so. He is way too much respected in this forum, so any critics would bring bad emotions on to you.
But you are right and his answer is, at least, childish, in my humble opinion.
I worked more than 15 years in charge of a lab in Valencia University and we had to suffer a professor who was so full of himself that, in petit comite he would admit that his books were written not to be understood, that way he was considered more intelligent, so much that most people could not follow him. This extremely pathetic story is totally true.
I'm not saying this is the case with A-team, don't know enough of him. <snip, irrelevant, personal information; N.>
I'm adding these lines because I'm very conscious of all my mistakes, I admit my ignorance, but want to push for a bit of humbleness for everyone in this forum.

Here in the north of Spain the weather looks a bit crazy. Look the difference  a couple of days make. Photos were taken 100 meters away each other.

The politics / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: March 03, 2020, 04:04:01 PM »
About the influence of mass media and internet

"In the modern world we know, the mass media – television, radio, and the internet – function as humanity’s collective nervous system linking billions of people worldwide. The problem is these media are failing big time when it comes to serving the public as honest brokers of information and understanding."

The rest / Re: Is Man the "Unnatural Animal?"
« on: February 22, 2020, 10:06:45 AM »
You seem to have completely misunderstood the ideas I've presented (both my own and those of others). No one is saying that "all is well and good in the world." Where did I say that? In fact, all it does is repeat your own attitude back to you: you've conflated "natural" as the non-human with "natural" as a moral concept. You're then assuming that the move of renaturalizing humans also means assigning a moral status (that of "good") to humans and our practices. No where have I done that, nor have the philosophers who I have referred to. Those are your own attitudes showing through. You're not reading carefully enough.

Agree, wdmn. Wili is suffering from his own bored way of "rationalizing his ingrained thoughts and behaviors". When using that racist example he is projecting his own hate and contempt. Very common with religious people.
But he's still a good fella.

nanning, I feel myself more away from civilization than you. That's probably why I sound harsh. And yep, there are some understanding problems.

The politics / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: February 19, 2020, 10:40:19 AM »
Mr. Piketty publishes a new book. It looks like again he's clearly pointing out the obvious.

"His premise in Capital and Ideology is a moral one: inequality is illegitimate, and therefore requires ideologies in order to be justified and moderated. “All history shows that the search for a distribution of wealth acceptable to the majority of people is a recurrent theme in all periods and all cultures,” he reports boldly. As societies distribute income, wealth and education more widely, so they become more prosperous. The overturning of regressive ideologies is therefore the main condition of economic progress."

Consequences / Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« on: February 02, 2020, 11:09:49 AM »
Big hug and love b.c.

Consequences / Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« on: January 28, 2020, 12:50:48 PM »
There are zero fish stocks driven to extinction by fishing

Bruce, agreeing with Sidd and Terry I cannot understand your position. As well as industrial farming is destroying the land, industrial fishing is destroying the seas. Where are the tuna, the cod, the Chinook, the whales... Maybe no species has been completely gone extinct, but they have disappeared from where they were usual and became rare.
Even, countries have signed treaties not to overfish, and they are hard to convince.
I saw disappear abundant and varied fishing in the Gulf of Cádiz, just after the first trawler and the first long distance statics nets were used (the first came with a game change for the other fishermen). The "almadrabas" used for fishing tuna were already famous in the Roman Empire. I have dived in them with dozens of tuna fish with a few of them bigger than caws, >500kg, going in circles around me. Nowadays they're lucky if they catch one or two over 200hkg. Mackerels were so abundant! We used to throw off board a mixture of grinded mackerel with its oil and sand and in a few minutes the sea around our boat was silver coloured and you could catch them with a 5 meters line and a couple of hooks with nothing on them.

And there are different ways industrial fishing can be harming.

The rest / Re: How Educated are we as a Forum
« on: January 27, 2020, 12:18:22 PM »
Griff is sorry to say that he brings the educational standards of this blog down.
High school drop out at 14.
IQ 145
EQ 0

“A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.”

― Robert A. Heinlein

Call me brother, mate!
Not the same story, but similar. I call myself jack of all trades (doesn't have a positive meaning, does it?, but it does for me)
I did enjoy a daily read of this forum. Now I'm making the effort to cooperate it is sometimes painful.

The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: January 26, 2020, 11:55:17 AM »
This is mainly for philosophers and humanists  ;)
The more we learn about our brain the less we know about our mind.
"The barrier between mind and body appears to be crumbling."

The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: January 25, 2020, 12:35:50 PM »

(I hope your feeling better nanning. If you look at  you'll find that you live in one of the most polluted places in Europe and also searching a bit more you might find links between pollution and health symptoms like yours)
((Hope you're right with your perception of stronger winds, that could help your problems considering that you are right))

Unfortunately natural sources for vitamin D are mainly animal.

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: January 25, 2020, 12:07:33 PM »
Wili, did humans have early population booms (small compared to the last one) coming with the development of old civilizations? What happened to those civilizations?
Although they were ridiculous in size compared with actual.
I can not see any other important difference between the San and a 'civilized' EU citizen than that I see between animals and a 'civilized' citizen: the number of members and the way they take in their relation with their environment. Animals and Sans adapt and enjoy, we have to change everything for our 'benefit'.

(I hope your feeling better nanning. If you look at  you'll find that you live in one of the most polluted places in Europe and also searching a bit more you might find links between pollution and health symptoms like yours)
((Hope you're right with your perception of stronger winds, that could help your problems considering that you are right))

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: January 24, 2020, 11:55:09 AM »
Modeling migration patterns in the USA under sea level rise

"Sea level rise in the United States will lead to large scale migration in the future. We propose a framework to examine future climate migration patterns using models of human migration. Our framework requires that we distinguish between historical versus climate driven migration and recognizes how the impacts of climate change can extend beyond the affected area. We apply our framework to simulate how migration, driven by sea level rise, differs from baseline migration patterns. Specifically, we couple a sea level rise model with a data-driven model of human migration and future population projections, creating a generalized joint model of climate driven migration that can be used to simulate population distributions under potential future sea level rise scenarios. The results of our case study suggest that the effects of sea level rise are pervasive, expanding beyond coastal areas via increased migration, and disproportionately affecting some areas of the United States."

My bold, access here:

UN Human Rights Committee issues first ruling in favor of climate refugees

Full sentece in pdf. here:

(Sorry, don't know how to take extracts from the document, but it addresses interesting views on the consequences of climate change)

Translated from with the help of DeepL:

"The storm that has hit the Levant these last three days has illustrated the new climatic normality that Spain is facing: extreme phenomena recorded in unexpected times. The Gloria storm has left at least ten dead, record waves, hurricane winds, marine invasion and destruction on the coast. The climate crisis decreed by the government this Tuesday seems, in this scenario, more justified. 

This squall reveals that we are still heading down an unexplored path of climate change. An isolated depression (DANA) formed over the Mediterranean at a historically unfavourable time of year has coincided with an anticyclone unprecedented in more than half a century in the British Isles. The result has been glory.

The new climate parameters have several components. The oscillation of the Jet Stream (the fast and narrow air flow that circulates in the upper layers of the atmosphere) becomes more intense, resulting in this type of isolated low pressure in our environment even in unfavorable times.

The arrival of cold air masses to the western Mediterranean is frequent in the months of January and February. They usually result in intense invasions of very cold air of polar or Siberian origin as an effect of the retrograde movement of air from the interior of the European continent to the Iberian Peninsula; that is, contrary to the normal circulation of the atmosphere.

What is not so frequent is that these air masses are isolated in our environment at this time of the year and acquire the explosive and erratic behavior typical of the DANAs, and much less that they end up in a storm of east as intense as the one we have suffered. All this, although rare, is not something that has not happened before.

But Gloria has gathered more exceptional things. The key ingredient to understand what happened was about 1,500 kilometers north of the peninsula. In Britain, there was an unusual atmospheric stability. So unusual that it hadn't been recorded for 63 years.

On the evening of January 19th, the British weather service announced on Twitter a historical record of pressure in West Wales. The barometer located at Mubles Head reached 1050.5 hPa, a record not seen since 1957. The powerful anticyclone ensured stability on the Islands.

So, with Gloria in the Levant and the extraordinary anticyclone in the British South, the conditions were created for the wind coming from the North East to acquire almost hurricane force. From then on, all records began to be beaten by one of the worst adverse weather phenomena on record.
Impacts of the storm

The eastern slopes of the Balearic Islands, as well as the entire Valencian and Catalan coastline, have suffered the worst effects of the Gloria storm. The extremely strong eastern storm has caused wind gusts of over 110 km/h and sustained winds of over 100 km/h. It was a hurricane force on a Mediterranean area not used to strong waves, which literally swallowed up a large part of the eastern coast of the peninsula.

The records have been historic. The Valencia buoy has measured waves of 8.44 meters high, the highest level ever recorded by Puertos del Estado on the peninsula's Mediterranean coast. The Mediterranean has literally demanded the property deeds in its natural domains. At points in Mallorca and Girona, the waves have reached double the height of entire four-storey blocks and have flooded the streets of towns such as Tossa de Mar with sea foam.

In addition, in the Ebro delta, the force of the wind pushed the waves inland from the river system of deposits that the Ebro has at its mouth. An environmental disaster pending assessment in one of the most threatened areas of the Iberian Peninsula in the face of the scenarios posed by Climate Change due to the delicate ecological balance it maintains.

The destructive storms on the coasts are increasing. Wind speeds and wave heights have been increasing for three decades, according to research published in the journal Science in April last year. This, coupled with the effects of climate change predict that episodes like Gloria, the storm that ripped out balconies in Tenerife in November 2018, which forced the closure of the promenade of A Coruña a year ago or hit the Andalusian coast in March 2019 will be repeated more frequently, explained the researchers then. A new normality marked by the alteration of the climate. "

Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: January 21, 2020, 01:03:04 PM »
No, nanning, I don't have a human partner but, as I said, some animal partners.
I have an old car that hate using. Living on your own is not environmentally friendly! Unless you managed to be totally self sufficient. That's why I like the idea of some conscious neighbors.

It looks as if I also misunderstood you about how you felt in your neighborhood. Sorry.
Is not the first time you mentioned being totally certain about something. We have to disagreed. You know my alias.
I studied psychology just for fun and the perception subject teach you to be very aware of what you see. So, much more care needed for what you think. Our brain is built to cheat ourselves.

Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: January 20, 2020, 12:02:47 PM »
Nanning, you were saying not feeling comfortable where you were living. That's why I wondered why you were not considering any other option and I mentioned some of them.

Where I live now I have all the problems that Sidd mentioned. But the paths are only for real 4x4 vehicles. And when rain or snow are hard, like now, you can only walk in or out, with a short cut of 2 hours walking (if you're fit) and 400m unevenness. No paid work possible, no shops, no TV, evasive satellite internet, telephone only with good weather... I haven't seen humans in two weeks now.

When I work for some of the locals I never charge them any money, they give me some food in exchange.

When I lost my eco-farm (because of a wrong marriage) that I had worked so hard that now is difficult to imagine (like having both joints of my right thumb broken and didn't stop working) I took your very same determination: I was going to live poor, BUT in close relation with nature and not depending on anyone. I don't have any incomes (my very old parents still send me a couple of hundreds for xmast or birthday) but I pay taxes. Taxes as if I were working just to have the chance of a decent pension in 9 years time. Taxes, as every other poor or not, to buy food (VAT) or any other item. I haven't and won't ask for any Government help.

"Reality is merely an illusion" and mine is feeling free.

I don't like the idea of owning land, but is a MUST if you want to live like I do. The price of the square meter is less than 0.5 euros, in part because you are advise that services do not work in a Natural Park. You have to look after yourself and the paths and there are very tight restrictions to change anything.

By the way, when I lived in Valencia I had an illegal Moroccan staying for two months at home. It was impossible to do something else for him so he left to Mallorca looking for any luck. An abandoned Russian sailor stayed with my aunt's family for two years. My cousin is working in Africa helping refugees since the 90s. I grew up in a healthy cooperative atmosphere.

Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: January 19, 2020, 07:51:17 PM »
From nanning: is that affluence?

I'm living on less than 6.000€ a year.

Do I have a choice?

Good question.
And I don't understand "any limits"

Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: January 19, 2020, 01:17:59 PM »
Could all this mental diversity show that we are evolving?
Evolution didn't stop on us.
(my test looks like a top-hat inclined to the red, no neurotypical)

Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: January 19, 2020, 12:19:24 PM »
nanning, we must be as consequent as possible with the way we think, but don't forget that you should also admit some adaptation crutches. It's almost impossible not to have an influence on the environment, which is natural.
You're receiving money from the Government, aren't you? Is it totally clean money?
Here, in this valley in the middle of a mountain riff, you can forage most of the year, you can grow your food by planting trees and vegetables that become part of the natural environment. Why introducing some plants that cannot become a danger for the rest, is a bad thing? You can even have free meat stealing some of what the wolves kill, my dogs do that.
I live with a couple of dogs and cats, but they are my friends, not my possessions. They can move where they want, sleep where they want. I'm even considering the chance of looking after some small sheep for their wool.
You preserve them from wolves attacks and they give you some wool in exchange.
A half Belgian/Argentinian in his forties has bought another small stone house and now is living part of the year in Belgium, earning some money, and the rest here. Restoring his house now but desperate to come here full time. We think in a cooperative way, we share tools, knowledge, food, one car is more than enough and probably we'll share the sheep idea. A painter in his sixties is the only other temporary inhabitant of the valley, but he comes and goes if the weather is too tuff. He doesn't even have a toilet.
Last month in a near hamlet the few inhabitants were all nervous because a rich Californian woman was looking for a hamlet to buy, to start another ecovillage. I think this was too rough for her, at the end.
At least here in Spain and Portugal this is not that strange.
There are a few ecovillages where people live how you want, although is not easy to be allowed in.

Policy and solutions / Re: Legal Approach to Climate Change Resolutions
« on: January 19, 2020, 11:21:34 AM »
This means, provably, the chances for a coordinated global effort to stop Doomsday's scenarios are finished. Only a storming of the Bastille as a chance. But that doesn't solve the overpopulation problem.  :-\

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 18, 2020, 12:19:06 PM »
Thanks very much, Rodius, and congratulations for your family.
Depression, anger and action! Showing we're similar animals we all go through the same process if this mess is understood. Collective single actions would change our world. Having such a nice hope gives meaning and joy to your life even if you're fighting against the most powerfuls.
If there's any 'cozy' future should be for them.
My best wishes!

Science / Re: Science basics-thread?
« on: January 15, 2020, 01:35:32 PM »
I don't know if this is the right thread for this web, happy to move it somewhere else.

NASA free software. More than 600 programs for very different subjects. Have a look!

The politics / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: January 13, 2020, 12:14:41 PM »
Thanks a lot Sidd, again, for that bright interview with the old Master. (He's being old all through my life :o)
This should be a must (to read) for those so proud of human intelligence.
We flow with the majority. But unless you make the hard work of trying to think of humans as if they were insects, or aliens, all that cultural baggage we drag uphill through our lives distort reality while inflating our ego.
OT: it was proved that our brain works without most of those prejudices inherent to our culture when you read and reason in a language that's not your mother's. ??? ;)
I've chosen to live like the auto excluded character in Huxley's novel, and when looking at society I can only see a big bunch of crazy armed monkeys and a much bigger flock of domesticated monkeys. But all of them very proud of their own self (and intelligence).

Consequences / Re: Forests: An Endangered Resource
« on: January 08, 2020, 11:15:00 AM »
Another silent tragedy...

"But still, a report commissioned by the government said 20m cubic metres of timber is disappearing from the forests each year, a number bigger than the total amount of legal logging, signifying both a huge hole in the government budget and a potential climate disaster.

“The situation is out of the control of the central authorities. They don’t know what’s happening in these forests. They don’t use satellite images, they don’t use smart tools,” said Ciprian Găluşcă, of Greenpeace Romania."

The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: December 26, 2019, 09:03:04 PM »
Thanks to you Terry, also for the link.
The big building is 5x5m inside and it was a barn, the small one is actually where people stayed seasonally. In the sixties the barn was transformed into the house and the small one used as warehouse and bathroom. After the reforms it was only used during weekends. I came in three years ago. Installed the PVs and brought a washing machine and a fridge.

About the insulation, thanks again, but I'm staying like this. I have to think any expense and the dormice are not a problem. I heard lots of terrible stories about them being a pest. The way the roof is, allows them to have their room without making any mess. Well, they are very noisy in June, July looking for a partner and you can hear them on top of your head rattling wile running at night. But they spend winter hibernating. And they were here before me.Sending a photo of one of them, hanging on one of the wooden beams. I feel very lucky for being able to share my home with such a wild animal. This is in a Natural Park and it's wildlife is a treasure that constantly amaze me.

The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: December 25, 2019, 10:39:26 AM »
Terry, this is another photo trying to imitate the other one, but taken this morning with no snow.
Being in the north of Spain we don't suffer from long periods under 0°C, but staying just over is frequent.
I don't cut trees for wood. Only use broken ones. A beautiful old, big, beech did fall a week ago and with this new delicious spring weather I'm up to chop it for winter next year. Last week I was searching wolves in the snow storm and today is going to be sweating with no clothes on top. Crazy weather.
Happy xmas for u all

The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: December 24, 2019, 09:12:43 PM »
Well, Terry, that's my home, where I live all year around.
Didn't expend a penny in insulation, it has very old 1m think rock walls. Only two little windows with single glass and wood cover. The roof has a wavy thin old protection for the water, the tiles on top and a wooden false ceiling where some families of dormice live without paying any rent.
The temperature now in winter inside the  house moves between 10-14°C, now with the fireplace on, in the evening I keep it around 16°C for two or three hours. The bathroom is in the little shed without any heating, the temperature there stays between 5-10°C. You get use to it. It's not painful ;)
The snow doesn't stay for many days, but comes frequently. But yes I have to keep the PVs clean, the sun has been very rare companion the last two months.

The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: December 24, 2019, 11:40:00 AM »
The same for you, nanning, and for the rest of members and readers!!!
From this neck of the woods.

(nanning, have you seen this thread?,1677.0.html

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: December 04, 2019, 11:54:32 AM »
Binntho, in my humble opinion, you are more than average intelligent person. You have the ability to succeed in the world of ideas. But you look like Icarus.
Sidd is totally right. We are living because some 10% of our body mass are bacterias and other alien microorganisms that live in symbiosis with our body. Gaia can stay in homeostasis because of all life interacting in her guts.
Maybe one solution could be that all the tech-believers join Elon and fly to Mars so they can fiddle their environment, their GDP, their abstract ideas and with no 'nature' inconvenience, colonize again a planet till it's all overcrowded and spoilt, and then jump to another one. Good luck!
The rest of us, not regretting tech, but not idolising it, could try to live calmly controlling our numbers and not controlling the rest of Gaia. (Although I think this would need some evolution in the H. Sap.)

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