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Messages - be cause

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1
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: April 18, 2021, 12:45:48 PM »
Maybe something got lost in translation.

Moderation, at least in English, is not the same as micromanagement.

One, weeds out noise, uncivil, crass, and sarcastic behavior, and mediates when necessary;  the other, imposes one's personal biases, beliefs and constraints on others.

While trolls, conspiracy nuts, and alt-right seem to be given carte blanche, appearently honest factual observation is no longer welcome.

In English that's called hypocrisy. When it's imposed on others - arrogant hypocrisy.

As Oren pointed out - it's kassy's jurisdiction

2
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« on: April 14, 2021, 09:29:43 PM »
Anyone living on the leeward side of one of the Great Lakes in the U.S. could confirm this. Lake effect snow can be 10 times the snow found in adjacent regions from a winter storm.

As someone who lived through White Death, I can confirm. Although I wouldn't consider that one to be truly lake effect - it just comes to mind. What a storm! The main way I'd experience lake effect snow was via bands of snowstorms blowing off of Lake Huron, while driving north. It could be a clear crisp winter day, then suddenly you'd drive into a veritable blizzard, drifting across the highway, then a km or two later, back to previous conditions. Lather rinse repeat, all the way from St. Thomas to Collingwood.



Anyway, sorry for getting off-topic. So, FWIW, I'll end this post with an observation from where I live - central BC. The snow on our acreage has melted away the quickest it has since we've been here (15 years), and the horse's paddocks are already dry. Normally we still have some patchy snow on the ground here, and dealing with horrible mud until about May.

3
According to Cryosphere Computing, NH snow extent anomaly is now (4/10/21) at -2.104 million km^2.

NH sea ice extent anomaly is now (4/10/21) at -0.511 million km^2. 

Combined NH extent anomaly (let's call it the NH albedo extent anomaly) is now -2.615 million km^2. 

As we head into the melting season, the latter is a number I will be starting to watch. 

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: April 11, 2021, 10:24:52 AM »
Slow animation for the last week (click to play)

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: April 10, 2021, 10:05:32 PM »
argo 6903547 reporting 2.894C at near surface on apr7

argo 3902112 at 3.416 a little further south on apr6

6
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 10, 2021, 02:52:19 PM »
United States

Confirmed Cases: 31,802,772
Confirmed Deaths: 574,840

Case Fatality Rate (CFR): 1.8%

Total Cases: ??
Total Deaths: ??

Infection Fatality Rate (IFR): ??

(In TB's defense, if every American has already been infected, then the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) is exactly 0.17% as he has argued and he is correct in stating that this IFR is very comparable to the flu.)

The reality is that not all Americans have been infected and this number is difficult to determine. However, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that about 40 percent of coronavirus carriers are asymptomatic.

https://baptisthealth.net/baptist-health-news/covid-19-roundup-higher-estimate-of-asymptomatic-carriers-supplements-and-symptoms-and-when-to-avoid-pain-meds/

The true infection numbers are likely double the confirmed cases. If 64,000,000 Americans have been infected (20% of the population) then the true IFR is 0.9%.

It's funny how that damn number keeps coming up. This is very similar to the IFR that was calculated on this thread at the very beginning of the pandemic last spring, derived from the unintentional controlled experiment that was the Diamond Princess cruise ship. This IFR is 8 to 10 times higher than the ordinary flu.

7
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« on: April 10, 2021, 02:32:47 PM »
Quote
Is this the "tropical cyclone" thread too?

Yes: Typhoons, Cyclones, and Hurricanes ...

--------------------------------------------------

A Spectacular Fujiwhara Effect Happens With Merging Tropical Cyclones Seroja and Odette, Both Head for a Rare and Damaging Impact to Australia This Weekend
https://www.severe-weather.eu/tropical-weather/fujiwhara-effect-cyclone-seroja-odette-australia-landfall-mk/



We don’t see this very often, but the tropical region is facing two merging cyclones this week. A so-called Fujiwhara effect of tropical cyclone Seroja and Odette revealed a spectacular satellite view. Seroja will be a dominant feature of both and turns towards western Australia with an extremely dangerous landfall with severe winds and flooding on Sunday.

The Fujiwhara effect can make forecasting track and intensity even more challenging, as a number of weather scenarios can occur with the general track and also intensity. One system typically becoming more dominant and overtakes the weaker one.

On rare occasions, the two systems can combine into one larger and intense system (as is this case), or they destroy each other. Tropical Cyclone Seroja reaches a Category 3 intensity this weekend, while the tropical low is expected to be of much weaker intensity.



... Modeled wind swath suggests that the approach of tropical cyclone Seroja will include severe winds, potentially becoming violent prior to the landfall of the system on Sunday. Wind gusts will be dangerous along the coast, possibly with gusts 140-170 km/h at the landfall.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=aus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021041006&fh=6

8
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 10, 2021, 09:30:57 AM »
Quote
global IFR of ~0.15% and ~1.5-2.0 billion infections by February 2021

Let's take the middle value of his case estimate, 1.75 billion. With his assumed IFR, that would make 2.625 million dead.

I don't know if he refers to the beginning or end of February, so let's say Feb 15. The confirmed case count then was around 110M, the confirmed death count was around 2.3M.

So he assumes that there are actually 16 times the number of confirmed cases, but only 14% more dead than the confirmed number globally.

He also assumes a global infection rate of about 22% (which would include China; without China it would be 27%). That's not possible without assuming that there are significant infection levels in large countries like the Philippines, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, the DRC, etc., all of which report very low confirmed case levels, not to speak of countries like Tanzania or North Korea where there are basically no cases officially. But we are to assume that the death count there is almost correct?

In addition, it has been pointed out many times in this thread, from mortality data in Russia or Mexico to studies from Africa or India, that death numbers are often vastly undercounted.

So his IFR is obviously inconceiving. I think he unwittingly makes a case for an IFR somewhere between 0.5% and 1%.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: April 10, 2021, 04:52:26 AM »
Arctic - Mirror of Life: RSE Symposium issues heartfelt condolences for the passing of our first Patron His Royal Highness Prince Philip this morning. Prince Philip was a great environmentalist long before the cause became popular rallying call among the public and he was instrumental in the founding of World Wildlife Fund (WWF). His son, Prince of Wales continues his environmental work focusing often on climate and Arctic region. We are greatly indebted in this regard. :'(

Press Speaker for RSE Symposium "Arctic - Mirror of Life"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50589065

10
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 10, 2021, 02:26:18 AM »


 Put a massive national debt on the millennials and the zoomers in every lockdown country, for a virus that has a 0.15% infection fatality rate (same as a bad flu), slightly higher in densely populated, polluted, aged populations (all of whIch could be seen last Spring despite harrowing pictures and headlines).



The debt is free money, at least in my country, it'll be paid off over the next quarter millennia.   We preserved the health care system, and didn't have the massive death toll that the USA or Brazil does.  You dare talk about money, now?!  After 4 years of Trump and 40+ years of Austerity politics that have seen the wealthy become richer than any 'elite' class in human history?

How often do you have to be wrong?  (damn, if I said what I'd like to say...)


11
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 05, 2021, 02:25:47 AM »
I'M TIRED OF THE PANDEMIC



12
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 28, 2021, 05:59:54 PM »




... Better?

13
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 27, 2021, 08:00:54 PM »
Heart disease, cancer, diabetes and strokes can also be given to you by someone else, via environmental pollution, addictive food and opioids.

Covid 19 can only be given to you by an infected individual sharing the same space with you.

 "Heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and strokes" are not infectious diseases, regardless of how much you try to take the argument to the ridiculous.

Quote
Also completely fucking avoidable, but the media doesn't scream about it 24/7 for a whole year, and so no one cares

Really? How?

Quote
Of course, the solution to that (ie healthy populations) isn't all that profitable,

I call out your bullshit. You do NOT have the solution to healthy populations, and even in the healthiest population, people die of mostly cancer and heart disease.

Quote

whereas the 'solution' to SARS-CoV-19 (medication, vaccines, mountains of plastic, mass surveillance and the destruction of SMB) is extremely lucrative.

You cry about the problem and then you cry about the solution.  Stop crying already.

14
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 16, 2021, 03:12:33 PM »
Leprosy Drug Holds Promise as At-Home Treatment for COVID-19
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-03-leprosy-drug-at-home-treatment-covid-.html


Clofazimine broadly inhibits coronaviruses including SARS-CoV-2, Nature, (2021)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03431-4

This is great news. Keep the research coming. You have become my number 1 source for information about COVID.

Thank Goddess for science.

15
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 14, 2021, 09:33:54 AM »
The main mod is trying to force a viewpoint upon us. He has trolled this thread many times and do so to this day. He also released trolls like BBR  on this thread and let them run rampant.

At every point, Kassy has defended these attacks on the forum and thread while simultaneously modding me.

DNFTT, will not work in the troll's house.

It saddens me greatly to see this happening to ASIF. Trolls can be dealt with. Trolling mods? That's something else.

16
The rest / Re: Masks
« on: March 09, 2021, 08:45:51 PM »
The CDC (I believe) said we could visit with other vaccinated individuals (3 weeks after final vaccination) indoors without a mask.  It was odd having our son and his friend over for an hour visit with no masks on faces.  (We all qualified.)

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: March 06, 2021, 11:45:40 AM »
PIOMAS is not perfect...

But it seems to me to have a better idea of where the thicker ice is currently to be found than GOFS/HYCOM:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/03/the-2021-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-volume/#Mar-06

See this ASCAT animation of the 2020/21 freezing season for example:


18
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 03, 2021, 11:40:04 AM »
One of the reasons dad and I talked is our family was being affected by the Vietnam War. As a 14 year old, it seemed like a pretty big deal. My older brother had just registered for the draft in 1969.

Looking at this chart, I'm wondering why the hippies were so upset. I mean, Hell, the numbers of wounded, dead and MIA are so low the bars don't even appear on the chart.
The Vietnamese have a different graph.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: February 22, 2021, 04:09:05 PM »
The goings on in the last 10 days to the north of Greenland and Svalbard
(click to play)

20
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: February 21, 2021, 12:23:11 PM »
thanks uni

21
The politics / Re: The problem of social media
« on: February 21, 2021, 11:45:11 AM »
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/19/mark-zuckerberg-facebook-news-australia-power

An article from Marina Hyde - who takes no prisoners - on Zuckerberg. A few quotes below.

The question every politician should be asking is, what does Mark Zuckerberg want with us?

This is about more than Facebook and news – it’s about the pursuit of power in a world where companies are stronger than countries

Quote
Of course, Facebook is the galactic leader in PR crises. In the company’s short, unimaginably powerful existence, they have made so many monstrous cock-ups and on such grand scales that it seems reasonable to predict the full collapse of human civilisation will be immediately succeeded by a Facebook statement containing the words: “We know we have more work to do.” It’ll probably have been drafted by Nick Clegg, whose political endpoint was always going to be donning Earth’s last crew-necked sweater and doing comms for the apocalypse.

Quote
As for the rest of us, it’s hard being told how beautiful it is to connect by Zuckerberg, whose smile hasn’t connected with his eyes since 2014. If friends are so important to our common goals, how come he doesn’t have any? Maybe commodifying friendship gives Mark the excuse for not partaking in it. You don’t see crack dealers using their own product, as the saying goes.

Quote
People often claim you’re frozen developmentally at the time you become famous, which presumably stunts Zuckerberg back at the stage he was in his Harvard dorm room. I can’t believe a product created to rate women has ended up as what the business professor and tech commentator Scott Galloway calls “the biggest prostitute of hate in the history of mankind”. Honestly, what were the chances?

Quote
But as he accrues more and more unprecedented global power, the question every single politician should be asking themselves, like, yesterday, is: what does Mark Zuckerberg want with us? They should have clicked long ago that he isn’t remotely interested in news as an idea or service. In 2016, Zuckerberg summarily fired the team that curated “trending” news topics and replaced them with an algorithm that promptly began pushing fabricated news, as well as a video of a man wanking with a McChicken Sandwich.
Quote
In her book The Boy Kings, Katherine Losse chronicles her time at Facebook, from being one of the firm’s earliest employees to eventually becoming the person Zuckerberg appoints to write in his voice.

One of several essays Zuckerberg instructed Losse to write in his voice was “Companies over countries”. She resigned without completing it, but not before having asked him if he could expand the slogan. “I think we are moving to a world in which we all become cells in a single organism,” came Mark’s mild reply, “where we can communicate automatically and can all work together seamlessly.” Wow. A vision of our future that has me immediately paging Morpheus.

22
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: February 13, 2021, 06:15:04 PM »
Yay!  Furnace fixed!  The drain that drains the inducer motor of moisture was frozen/clogged underneath the house, so water was backing up into the inducer turbine, which wasn't allowing the turbine to produce enough exhaust airflow, which wasn't allowing the ignition sensor to see that it was safe for the ignition and gas to turn on.  At first the technician thought that the entire inducer motor might have worn its bearings out (after 1 and a half years from when I bought it new?!) but nope, it was the moisture drain to it that was frozen shut underneath the house. 

Now we are ready for the -10 F low that we are forecast to have Tuesday morning...

23
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 11, 2021, 08:49:13 PM »
The Oxford/AstraZeneca affairs smell politics, or corruption, or both.

Given the well-earned prestige of the WHO when speaking on COVID-19, science could be safely discarded. They however may have a good (political) intention, that is encouraging poor countries to fully adopt the vaccine no matter the age.


@nadir can you please pass what you are smoking?

the WHO is one of the least credible organizations when it comes to COVID-19.  They literally didn't even mention the virus was droplet spread, until well beyond the point of no return.

Moreover, they did not even attempt to declare it a pandemic until it was literally so bad that the entire world had to shut down.

 They appear to have done such a poor job with COVID-19 that the world's health has dramatically declined.

Didn’t you notice my sarcasm when I said “science can be safely discarded”?

Sarcasm is difficult in Internet

24
The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: February 11, 2021, 06:43:35 AM »
A taste of humour from Friesland (Fryslân).
(3m52)

25
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 03, 2021, 01:40:48 AM »
I don't write often in this thread, but I want to write something

1.Great news about sputnik v. Not a fan of Russia, but many people knew long time ago that this vaccine was good. I don't mean just random people but medical experts, people that know how vaccines are made. Everything suggested it would be good.  Now proved, I can't even say proved just peer reviewed by people having access to Lancet.

2 But the fckin bureaucracy and politics in every sphere. As we know for sinopharm too that it is good. Millions vaccinated with no major problems,400-500k in Serbia alone in the middle of Europe, no severe issues, Hungary ordering, but the people in Brussels are doing nothing, nothing at all, just talking *** as usual in front of tv, and complaining while many regular citizens are dying. They should never again say they are not basing decisions on politics. Mosf of Europe stopped vaccination with less than 3% vaccinated, and they will keep yelling at people about not following the measures.
They can't even sign a good contract making sure they get what they ask for. Trump was maybe an idiot in some ways but even he was 10x more efficient than gentlemen from EU.I am writing this as a European, Europe was the first region really severely impacted, Europe should be the most developed region, the most advanced healthcare,  the richest region. And everything we saw during the pandemic was failure after failure. Lockdowns and lockdowns, no vaccines, no control over covid, both waves with many deaths,no clear strategy through the whole pandemic. I bet they will reopen later than all others. Later than the middle east, later than Russia, UK(europe but not eu), US, Latin America- all regions that experienced severe covid problems. .And they will still give lessons in the future.Only WHO heads are possibly on the same disaster level as EU heads. They also changed their minds and advices 100 times, with no explanation and information provided why all the sudden did they change theiropinion.

26
Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: January 28, 2021, 03:54:21 PM »

Designing a Forest Garden: The Seven-Layer Garden


https://www.chelseagreen.com/2020/designing-a-forest-garden-the-seven-story-garden/

Yes, that's from Gaia’s Garden: A Guide to Home-Scale Permaculture, Second Edition by Toby Hemenway, which is one of the best/most inspiring books on (permaculture) gardening I have read.

Would it help with your nut allergy if you soaked the nuts before eating them? That's what my wife almost always does, as she maintains that nuts contain toxins to discourage predators.

27
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 23, 2021, 02:58:43 PM »


British scientists already had concluded that the variant, known as B.1.1.7, spread between 30%-70% faster than the previous dominant coronavirus strain in the U.K. 


That range is expanding downwards. I've yet to see a robust analysis showing its changed, but its hard to explain how low R is under lockdown with B.1.1.7 dominant unless its at or below the lower end of that range. 50-70% was pretty robust for December, and it still looks pretty robust for Denmark, but I haven't seen a decent analysis of UK data in January that says anything other than the data has got messier.

Possibly the main advantage B.1.1.7 has is reducing or reversing the advantage adult spreaders have over children so closing the schools has drastically reduced its relevance. Thats the hypothesis I'm looking to disprove at the moment. I think greater mobility than April is roughly balanced by greater immunity from infection than April, but same R as April needs something that affects B.1.1.7 in particular.

28
The politics / Re: Biden’s Presidency
« on: January 20, 2021, 06:27:24 PM »
Amanda Gorman was AWESOME!!!! 🙂


29
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: January 14, 2021, 06:35:25 PM »
Dear Tom,
You wrote:
'be cause & gerontocrat:
I notice that the most cogent arguments you can make against my linked article are, basically, to foam at the mouth
.'
While it is true that you have engendered a certain amount of gnashing of teeth and foaming at mouths, the reasons do not include acknowledgement and frustration by the devastating strength of your argument.
Indeed, quite the opposite.
I draw to your attention the concept of Logical Fallacies, linked here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies
In the interests of saving time, I direct you to the fallacy of 'False Equivalence:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_equivalence

Equating BLM protests against extra judicial killings of an identified group with a mass insurrection based on anger against a legal election is an example of a false equivalency.

It is an easy trap to fall into, one that you are regularly ensnared by, but the moderators of this forum have wisely requested we do not take it up with you.

Regards,
Sebastian

30
Consequences / Re: Origins of COVID-19
« on: January 10, 2021, 01:46:34 AM »
John.....
You make a wild ass guess then make some sort of point based on said wild ass guess.
And you wonder why I don't take your points seriously.

And given you have preconceived ideas, all you needed to do from that point was find information to back up your own thinking.

Fauci lied about some things. What you are not taking into consideration about those lies is the context he was doing it in. Namely, Trump wanted the entire thing ignored and Fauci wouldn't do that. Fauci wanted to remain in the public eye to try to get as much information out as possible without being fired. This is a context that needs to be considered when looking at why he lied. Also, he remained (for the most part) within the ranges stipulated, he just shifted the range he talked about upwards when he felt the public and Trump could deal with it.
Clearly it failed given the current situation.

I don't care about Dore's politics, he is not providing a clear picture of events, or he cant see them, or he simply wants to make a video that people will watch and create a public discussion so he can get paid. He lacks context in this case.

Just because I am from Australia, doesn't mean I cant care about other places around the world. Fauci matters in the US, and the discussion was started by you and I replied. I saw a lack of context in the video that you provided as some sort of evidence about something.
This is an international forum, it talks a lot about the US.
If you don't understand that people can care about other countries, maybe that is a reflection  that the US citizen really doesn't care much about anything outside of the USA. Most of the rest of the world actually know a lot more about other countries than your average run of the mill US citizen. So, I can actually care about the US while living in Australia.

And yes, Australia does have their own experts, and our politicians (for the most part) listen to them. Have you looked at the differences in the Covid results between each country and wondered why they are so radically different? Maybe the US should look at how Australia is doing it and learn a few things.... except they are so caught up in their political bullshit that acting based on science is pretty much impossible.
Let the US machine keep working for the benefit of those with money and power, what are a few hundred thousand extra deaths this year to them so long as the capitalistic machine keeps working for their benefit.

31
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: January 09, 2021, 10:02:43 PM »
Yep kassy, if you want to talk solutions to global warming you can't avoid politics.

But some political issues have no impact on GW, so those are perhaps best left out.

The website owner(s) get to make the rules, at any rate. Like 'em or lump 'em. There's tons of other places around teh interwebz to bicker over these things.

Personally, I like how things are done here, better than most, and I'm extremely grateful for the "walled garden" that is the Cryosphere sub-section.

32
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: January 09, 2021, 09:21:30 PM »

33
The rest / Re: Masks
« on: January 08, 2021, 09:11:34 PM »
I refuse to click such sites - but taking a peek on the Internet, I think he's wrong. Murders are up because of rising social anger, thanks to the Orange Idiot on the one hand and the Covid crisis on the other hand. Masks are annoying and uncomfortable but do not lead to increased murders, or else the East Asians would have murdered themselves to death already.

34
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: January 04, 2021, 11:31:11 PM »

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 03, 2021, 12:29:43 PM »
JAXA Data - a bit more on 2020

2020 had the lowest average daily sesa ice extent in the satellite record.

The simple daily average daily sea ice extent for the year was 9.674 million km2.
This was 42k less than in 2016, and 285k less than in 2012.

Put in another way, in 2020 there was on average 42k less ice and 42 k more open water for every day of the year than in any other year.

36
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 02, 2021, 08:49:55 AM »
The local Health Dept. phoned about an hour ago giving us (wife and me) appointments to receive our first Moderna vaccination shot, tomorrow mid-day.
:)

The nurse, working at 8 pm on New Year's Day, chuckled when I answered the phone (not knowing who it was) with a cheery "Happy New Year!"

Forecast is for rain all day, maybe some lightning, so appointments could get cancelled...
 :-\

Didn't know that rain or lightning made vaccination impossible. In my country they usually administer it indoors
 :):):)

37
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: January 01, 2021, 04:21:50 PM »
kassy, you may not understand this but blumenkraft is a friend of mine. Yes, abstract as all of you are. Still, I will act on my well-developed-but-not-perfect senses and do the right thing. Hell, what is this about kassy? I repeat my question; Do you have a heart?


edit: typo

38
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: December 30, 2020, 12:01:53 AM »



39
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: December 24, 2020, 03:46:15 AM »
It appears that some people think Australia is in permanent lockdown with a Govt keeping us under firm control.

Truth is this.... for 4 months one city was in lockdown for about four months. It was not fun, people complained, but we did what was needed. It worked. Melbourne has had zero community transmissions for 55 days in a row and 1 case that came into Melbourne from the cluster in Sydney because the person drove here a few days ago.

The only restrictions we have now are wearing a mask while doing things like supermarket shopping. For the most part, our economy is almost fully open and recovering.

Sydney has targeted lockdowns because of its cluster. It is hard and fast, it will almost certainly work, and within the coming week or two, Sydney will be mostly fully open as well.

This is hardly a dictator state or country, in fact, we are almost back to normal and nobody is dying from Covid and the cases are very, very low.

Not bad for 4 months of misery.

Compared to places likes the US, where Trump bloody mindedly did everything he could to let it rip through, with thousands of deaths per day, an economy that is struggling, job loses, hunger increasing, people living in unstable housing due to rent non payment and a hospital system that is all but collapsed and getting worse, I pick the four months of lockdown every single time.

For the people who think Covid isnt much of a thing, a common cold, or no worse than the flu, if any of those people can provide any evidence of any kind that shows them doing what Covid is doing right now, please present the evidence for us to see. Any information at all will do.

Shit, give any information from the US only... find the worst flu season in the last 100 years and compare it to what is happening in the US right now.
You can even present finding from the 1914 flu if you want as that is the closest you will probably come to Covid.

Melbourne fought hard to remove the virus. Lockdowns are needed, so are masks, testing, tracing and strong political leadership. But it was temporary and no longer in place.
And here is the funny thing, the people in Melbourne are prepared to do it all again should it be required. Most people are aware that when our winter comes around next year we may well have to do it again, and that is okay with most people here because the results show that it is worth it.

I just wanted that to be clearly stated.

I would like to see evidence of a worse disease than Covid to see what pops up.... something that has gone global and has done what Coivd is doing.
MERS and SARS might appear as counters to this, but given MERS and SARS were relatively easy to beat, and isn't global, it isn't really a fair comparison. Ebola isn't either. All three of those diseases could have gotten a lot worse and still been brought into containment as they are today because they only spread with symptoms.

So, please, present the findings of how the flu has done what Covid has done to health care systems globally, show the real number deaths, the real organ damages, lets compare them properly.

If it can be shown that Covid is, in fact, no worse than the flu, then I will change my mind. Until then, if you think Covid is no worse than the flu, either front up with researched evidence or stop saying it.

Rant over.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: December 20, 2020, 03:47:50 PM »
First interesting news of the freezing season.

JAXA, December 18, 2020

Extent: 11,562444 km2
Gain of 144,467 km2

5th lowest in the satellite record. Could only last a day. Could move down to 6th.

2016:  11,295,762 km2
2017:  11,546,507 km2
2019:  11,553,665 km2
2010:  11,548,406 km2
2020:  11,562,444 km2
2018:  11,564,084 km2

<FTB, haven't seen you in a while, it seems tendency for cherrypicking has remained. Am approving this post on a one-time basis but will not tolerate on an ongoing basis. O>

Aluminium’s animation shows that the prevailing winds bringing coldness from Alaska and inducing very strong ice drift over the Chukchi sea explain the recent increases in extent (mostly)

The guys at MOSAIC thread are documenting what’s going on with the anticyclonic drift basin-wide very nicely. Go have a look.

Also the strong high pressure dome has displaced cold air to the periphery in particular to Kara, that was late in refreeze and is quickly picking up.

If you find this event the first interesting news from the freezing season, you have not been following or you are quite ill intentioned as oren suggests.

41
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: December 09, 2020, 04:04:16 PM »


@realDonaldTrump is a petulant child with 70 million idiots behind him that all believe in the power to walk on water.

Reality (science) is not for religious nutcases!

America is getting destroyed by religious extremism and the complete void of reason and believe in science.


He is not religious at all but pretends to be to reach out to those guys to vote for him.

This doesn't take anything away from what you said, just added an important detail as to he being religious. ( a true believer )

Most so called religious people got stuck in the old testamont and are far away from being christian in the meaning of being forgiveful, tolerant and love to love you fellow humans like themeselves.

Most religious people are cherry picking from their appropriate guides (Bible, Quran etc.) To justify their evil doings.
Even some real believers tend to get nasty in the name of god if things or someone doesn't function their way.

In short, he is a pharisee at best and certainly a hypocrite which are kind of synonyms.

42
The politics / Re: Brexit...
« on: December 09, 2020, 10:55:51 AM »
Excellent summary of the mad saga of Brexit so far: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/08/codpieces-zeppelins-best-brexit

"David Cameron’s referendum on EU membership was intended to “settle the issue for a generation”. Since then, Britain has been trapped in a midsummer night’s scream that has lasted four and a half years, and has not technically actually even begun. We must hope the way to the sunlit uplands is via shit creek – because that’s certainly the direction we took. Still, as we sit and wait for deal or no deal, let’s take a look at Brexit’s best bits.

At one point, Michael Howard threatened war with Spain. On another occasion, a Ukip leader wrote to the Queen to inform her she had committed treason when she signed the Maastricht treaty. A thinktank suggested the Irish border issue could be resolved with zeppelins – the only problem being, they were insanely expensive and entirely weather-dependent. During one of the “meaningful votes” – sorry, no idea – an MP intoned to parliament: “This is a turd of a deal, which has now been taken away and polished, and is now a polished turd. But it might be the best turd that we’ve got.”

Preposterous people became a thing. Throbbing forehead vein Mark Francois compared a mild letter from the Airbus CEO with Rommel’s Atlantic wall defences. Steve Baker uttered the words: “Everybody knows I’m Brexit hardman Steve Baker.” Boris Johnson uttered the words “Fuck business.”

It was announced that a “major Hollywood studio” was turning Arron Banks’s Bad Boys of Brexit book into a $60m, six-part TV drama, which would have made it one of the most expensive shows then on TV. Kevin Spacey was tipped to play Farage. (Probably worth going back to him now.)
...
"

Satire is dead.

43
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: December 07, 2020, 02:39:49 AM »
It's kinda sad. Neven would never accept someone posting a youtube of some random scientist from a field not related to climate who down played that crisis... of evidence of, well, anything--except what we already know: even 'scientists' can be idiots, especially when they start pontificating about stuff outside of their field. The guys a diet specialist, and that field barely qualifies as science, anyway.

Bring me the considered judgment of epidemiologist, and ideally organizations of epidemiologists, who say the thing this nitwit is saying, and then maybe I'll start to listen.

Why do some people's standards of evidence get thrown out the window, when they know form experience with climate denial that the opinions of any one random dude, even one with some random advanced degree, is basically worthless, especially when it so flagrantly goes against the considered judgment of people who actually know what they're talking about, against the overwhelming evidence, and against, well, just ... the obvious

:::::::::::

Meanwhile, Giuliani has just been admitted to the hospital with covid (and Barr, by the way, is reportedly considering resigning).

44
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: December 06, 2020, 06:30:04 PM »





45
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 29, 2020, 05:07:04 AM »
A good article about the challenges the Victorian Govt, Australia, had during the second wave in Melbourne.

In essence, the right wing Murdoch media attacked him throughout the event, lied, made false claims and wanted the economy opened up the entire time.

Worth a read.

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/11/27/how-dictator-dan-defied-a-dangerous-murdoch-media-and-led-australia-to-covid-victory/

46
The rest / Re: When will post-pandemic normalcy return?
« on: November 27, 2020, 08:14:29 AM »
Normal for whom?
Here in NZ it is normal. Catching Covid is not a risk for almost all of us  here .
The only difference from  normal life ?
We don't have tens of thousands of tourists cluttering up the place.
But.
Kiwis usually spend  as much being tourists overseas as tourists bring into our economy so that hardly matters.

Today I even confirmed  my attendance  at the usual yearly social gatherings over Christmas for the extended family's on both sides ... no problems, no issues, no risks.
I will spare a though for all you poor buggers living is less well run country's as I crack a cold one and burn dead animal bits  on the BBQ as we traditionally do for the seasons celebrations in NZ.

47
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: November 24, 2020, 05:36:35 AM »
Hello, on November 20th an ice storm, maybe the same one mentioned above hit Changchun city, Jilin Province, China (were I am) and much of northern china.  There were of branches of trees everywhere broken off with the weight of the ice and the wind.  This was followed by quite heavy snow.  It has been sunny for several days now.

I can tell you travelling to work on the bus (the light rail did not work) took hours.  I have no idea how the bus drivers managed to drive on the ice and snow covered roads that were lined with broken trees.

48
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: November 22, 2020, 12:40:14 PM »
An unusual ice storm occurred in Vladivostok on Nov. 20. Massive layer of ice was deposited on all surfaces, with severe damage to trees and wires. Most of trees are severely damaged, and the ground is covered with broken off branches.

Parts of city still have no electricity, water and heating. Two high voltage transmission line towers collapsed under the added weight of ice, causing blackout in part of city. It's still unknown when the power will be restored.

A separate big concern is for birds who lost access to seeds, an important food source this season.




Ice that formed on the wires:


More photos at: http://kirr.homeunix.org/nature/2020-11-20-Vladivostok-Ice-Storm/.

I've no idea if such events are getting more frequent or more severe with the changing climate.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 17, 2020, 01:59:03 PM »
A small visual analysis of possible years for state change using Wipneus' piomas modeled ice thickness (Zhang and Rothrock 2003). I think there are data and charts that show roughly the same thing though limiting the observed area to that of the thickest remaining ice near the september minimum may be instructive.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 16, 2020, 07:17:34 AM »
Here's the September anomaly map from Climate Reanalyzer.  I'll be interested to see Octobers when it turns up, and Nov. after that to see if my hunch is borne out.

wait no more:

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