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Messages - The Walrus

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Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 14, 2021, 07:43:19 AM »

It is funny how often people leave a discussion just as the evidence begins to overwhelm their point of view....

And then these people leave rather than acknowledge there is a problem with their thinking... and I would bet they leave thinking they have "won".

The same happened "on the other side" as well, with Sam in April/May. He was touting 10% IFR and whatnot. When evidence started to emerge that IFR is more like 1% in Europe and the US (and I don't think it has changed) he simply left. I think it is very unscientific if we close our eyes and ignore the truth. We all need to be able to acknowledge if and when we are wrong. I have often been wrong about many things and while it was hard to face it I know it will happen again. Such is life...(if you respect the facts)

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 13, 2021, 12:55:41 PM »
It is more variable than calculating a single value for the climate sensitivity.

And even more contentious!

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 12, 2021, 10:11:19 PM »
I suggest you stop following people publishing on Twitter

Can I safely assume that you haven't yet read any of the assorted peer reviewed articles referenced in the Twitter threads I've brought to your attention? I suggest you start reading them.

You won't have seen this screenshot either:

You haven't posted any peer-reviewed rebuttals of the Ioannidis paper. Post them here please. I'm not trawling though a twitter-thread of random low-level doctors ranting about something they clearly don't understand. Post the actual peer-reviewed rebuttals here. Not a Twitter thread. Thanks.
And you conveniently forget that the Ioannidis studies are peer-reviewed & published by the W.H.O. and the N.I.H. also (both of which always peer-review papers again before posting), and yes, by the peer-reviewed journal EJCI. It is very unusual in science for individual highly respected scientists, journal editors, editorial staff, and peer-reviewers, to just make stuff up, and get it published. Why on Earth would he (or they) damage his/their career like that? Smearing scientists casually is dangerous to science, and to the world.
And the further peer-review & publication by the W.H.O. of his 2020 paper, and now by the NIH of his 2021 paper (with a similar IFR range) are validation of the veracity of the studies. History will bear these out as correct. Denying the scientific method & the peer-review process for any random reason you can dredge up, is the same tactic used for decades by climate-science-deniers, who I fought for decades, and is very dangerous to science in general. We could be looking at a collapse of science now, and expert-advise, due to the mass-irrationality of the mainstream in 2020.
The ratios and ranges in the Ioannides studies are correct, are patently obvious, and a no-brainer now, which is perhaps why you won't answer my question:
What do you think the global IFR is Jim? And why do you specifically think it?
(Remember, experts agree that there have been 10 times the cases than have been recorded

A bit like the "Appeal to 'emeritus' authority" technique you mean?
The W.H.O. and the N.I.H. are not an emeritus scientist living in an ivory tower. They are world class bodies, who peer-review every peer-reviewed study they post.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 10, 2021, 06:54:30 PM »
Little more could have been done with our western culture. In some places, maybe a lot more (Fla), in many others, not much more (Skandinavian countries).

We are no equipped with the mindset to shut down several schools due to *a single case*, get everyone directly involved tested in 24h, quarantine children *and* parents then reopen schools free of cases in 48h.

Discipline, teamwork, submission to society, obedience,... oh and they used masks *before* the pandemic, many had them at home just in case.

Not saying I envy Korean mindset though... just admitting we follow other principles.
After more than a year, in the western countries it's perhaps time to change the mindset?

Oh, and do you realize that Australia and New Zealand used to be considered as having the same mindset? Apparently, they were able to change already.

Perhaps if we suffer an epidemic every 20-30 years as it has happened in Southeast Asia we’ll be better prepared. Now I’ve got a stock of masks, and vinyl gloves I have barely spent, but my great-grandchildren won’t, hopefully, if this doesn’t repeat in another 100 years.

Yes Australia and NZ are wonderful countries. And they have done really well.

These are peripheral low-density population islands too. That obviously helps. Compare the population, population density, and location of NZ with Taiwan. Please... the miracle is Taiwan, and how Taiwanese people and government reacted to the pandemic is something admirable that you can’t reproduce, even imagine happening, in any Western country. They didn’t even enact a single lockdown. Ever. Just a week’s pause to get prepared as far as I know. They kept manufacturing masks for themselves since late February 2020. They facilitated hygiene for children in schools. The whole society reset and prepared.  Result: 10 deaths so far in a 20 million population, economy sank just a 4%, children go to school, people carry on with their business as best as possible.

Shared Humanity can add Taiwan to his ongoing series of nonsensical statistical comparisons.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Casual 2021 melting season predictions
« on: April 10, 2021, 01:10:18 PM »
A. Welcome, forty-first.
B. The chart is cherry-picked because it somehow misses the drops between 1992-1993 and especially between 2006-2007.
C. It is indeed possible to predict the growth of ice in the 20s, but it is certain to be wrong.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Casual 2021 melting season predictions
« on: April 08, 2021, 12:14:08 PM »
The next ten days should kick start the season with a boost.

The dangers of making predictions. Now 15 days later, things are just trundling along as usual. No kick in the boost or anything.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 28, 2021, 09:27:14 PM »

... Better?

 ;D ;D ;D Thanks. I needed that.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 27, 2021, 08:00:54 PM »
Heart disease, cancer, diabetes and strokes can also be given to you by someone else, via environmental pollution, addictive food and opioids.

Covid 19 can only be given to you by an infected individual sharing the same space with you.

 "Heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and strokes" are not infectious diseases, regardless of how much you try to take the argument to the ridiculous.

Also completely fucking avoidable, but the media doesn't scream about it 24/7 for a whole year, and so no one cares

Really? How?

Of course, the solution to that (ie healthy populations) isn't all that profitable,

I call out your bullshit. You do NOT have the solution to healthy populations, and even in the healthiest population, people die of mostly cancer and heart disease.


whereas the 'solution' to SARS-CoV-19 (medication, vaccines, mountains of plastic, mass surveillance and the destruction of SMB) is extremely lucrative.

You cry about the problem and then you cry about the solution.  Stop crying already.

Coal is in terminal decline but before declaring peak let's see what happens when economy picks up post-Covid.

Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: March 18, 2021, 06:57:34 PM »
My point was (as we are discussing the climatic effects of BOE in this thread) that just because we lose most of the Arcic Ice (=BOE) no runaway processes develop. I think the above research supports that. BOE does not CAUSE a sort of climatic collapse.

However, out actions taken together (AGW+the things you mentioned kassy and many more) could lead to runaway processes eventually both climatically and ecologically. So we most definitely need to step up and act against the destruction of our planet.

I think BOE is just a milestone and we are already seeing the effects of Arctic Ice loss. I expect more of the same during the next decades:

Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: March 15, 2021, 06:40:41 PM »
oh no, not again!!

anyway I won't look for the original papers I quoted but here is what I found quickly and are based on the same ice core recods:

"Measurements made on the ice cores reveal that temperatures over the Greenland ice-sheet warmed by 8 to 16°C at each event, sometimes within decades. ...For a long time, scientists have been wondering whether climate responses in the middle latitudes and tropics occurred simultaneously with abrupt temperature changes over Greenland, or if there were regional leads or lags in timing...Based on data spanning the entire last glacial period, our results show that abrupt climate changes occurred synchronously (within decades in some cases) across Europe and both the South American and Asian Summer Monsoon regions. "

"Studies of the ice show that the temperature in the northern hemisphere rose by as much as 10°C in just a few decades on two occasions. The first change happened 14,700 years ago, when the planet was still in the grip of the last ice age. The subsequent warmer period lasted less than 2,000 years before the climate cooled again. The second switch to warmer temperatures occurred 11,700 years ago, at the end of the ice age."

So there you have it. It was an extremely fast, extremely big warming and it happened all across the NH.

And it was even warmer up north than now

"Today, northwest Greenland hovers in the 30s and low 40s Fahrenheit and weathers snowstorms in summer. But average summer temperatures in the early Holocene (8,000 to 11,000 years ago) and Last Interglacial (116,000 to 130,000 years ago) climbed well into the 50s"

And no, despite all this, there was no runaway process. This is what science says

The politics / Re: Biden’s Presidency
« on: March 13, 2021, 08:23:47 PM »
nadir your comment seemed to be attacking only dems i was just saying repub do same thing. generally yes the deck is stacked against regular people who are not rich.

The politics / Re: Biden’s Presidency
« on: March 12, 2021, 09:21:41 PM »
You should be honest enough with yourself to recognize that both sides use propaganda machines to spread their ideology. They both misrepresent things to win converts and push their agenda.                                                                                           

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 12, 2021, 04:41:04 PM »
This is a stunningly weak virus.
This graph looks similar for any developed country.

Ageing is just an example, but the biggest one.
Add in pollution, obesity (in many countries), minorities (slightly more vulnerable to covid-19), and other factors.

I posted about how weak it obviously was back in March 2020 (on Facebook), and ranted about how dangerous lockdowns were to the socially-vulnerable.

After studying this graphic, point to where the 2020 "excess deaths" are on that graphic.

1. All deaths -
2, Ageing -

The politics / Re: Biden’s Presidency
« on: March 11, 2021, 11:45:40 PM »
In my opinion, the primary system itself is fundamentally flawed as it allows a pair of private companies (DNC and RNC) to quite heavy-handedly put their thumbs on the scales, and has been stated to be entirely permissible by party leadership. Nebulous circular arguments like "electability" often take precedence over desired policy changes, because playing the crooked game is the only way to win.

In our current system, the average American has a near-0% chance of running for office because the political elite in both parties have such a massive leg up in narrative and connections that they can snuff out all but the highest of the upper echelon just by entering the race. Most candidates win primaries by out-fundraising the competition, making back-room deals with each other, and strategically dropping out in coordinated maneuvers, rather than letting the American people organically decide which candidate has the best political goals and would represent their interests the most. How many wonderful potential representatives never even run because our system doesn't even provide a framework for them to have a fighting chance?

Why are all 50 primaries not held on the same day? Super Tuesday works completely fine, so we could have 100% of the delegates up for grabs on that day rather than just the majority. In combination with ranked choice voting, or with a built in runoff system on later dates, the electorate could keep and eliminate all candidates with their votes alone, rather than through the whims of donors and party string-pullers. I think this would result in a stronger consensus candidate for each party, rather than producing a strong party insider who barrels through the primary on corporate donations and media spin, but ends up weak and uninspiring in the general election.

City dwellers are generally completely naive about the remotest level of responsibility that is required living outside of luxury apartments, and they will quickly realize that their poor skillsets and lack of physical working ability, is not acceptable.

It's sort of like releasing a domesticated dog into a national forest.  The strongest, and smartest can survive, but the majority will die within a matter of days.

Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: March 11, 2021, 07:44:04 AM »
I have yet to see data that shows that Arctic Ice loss is interfering with agricultural production. Actually, I see the opposite: a boom in NH mid and especially high(er) latitude food production. As an example I attach Canada's soybean and wheat production timeseries plus wheat yields. Hardly pointing towards famine. They show increasing productivity and production. The same is true for postSoviet countries and most of N-Europe.

Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: March 10, 2021, 02:05:05 PM »
But all historic warming we know happened during ice age earth so for most areas during most time cooling was more of a problem then warming because plants were growing well within their tolerance zone.

We already have these pressures.

In fact we do not really need a BOE event for famines although they themselves are mostly a result of a distribution problem (we have enough food for everyone, we just are not interested in getting everyone fed).

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 10, 2021, 07:31:40 AM »
As for Africa, I think they are similar to India, where recent studies show that possibly 30-60% of the population has already been infected. Age structure and cross-immunity from previous infections probably means that mortality is only 0,1% or less there.  It is just another malaise they need to cope with - they have many other problems of bigger magnitude they need to deal with.

Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: March 09, 2021, 05:49:52 PM »
Russia: Russia is already emerging as a major agri-exporter. Warming means higher yields. Warming means some areas swithcing from wheat to corn which is more productive (because of the C4 pathway of photosythesis).

Canada: same. Warming = longer growing season= more calories

Texas: the majority of Texas DID NOT experience record cold. There were major, even colder Arctic outbreaks during the 20th century. Texas was a loser because of human stupidity (no interconnector to other states and stupid regulation), same as those Californian fires: people build in the middle of extremely dry forests which routinely burn down (natural process) and are amazed that they lode their homes...

So far, we have not seen any growth in the volatility of NH weather due to Arctic melting. I studied numerous data from various countries and have yet to see any proof of growing volatility. What I see is warming during almost all seasons.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Casual 2021 melting season predictions
« on: March 09, 2021, 05:44:37 PM »
Based on the melt in the last 10 years I predict the 2021 JAXA extent minimum will be somewhere between 2.6 and 5 million km2.

But perhaps that does not help.

Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: March 09, 2021, 03:02:16 PM »
i don't think a BOE does anything by itself. 2012 was a sort-of-BOE (in some seas) and not much was changed. I think it is more of a process than a one-off event. Our climate is already changing.

Also, BOE means more water vapour = more rain/snow in mid to high latitudes. Also, more warmth = longer growing season. 

So, BOE will likely be good at some places and bad for other regions.
I think Canada and Russia are winners.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 09, 2021, 01:55:19 PM »
As far as I know, the Swedish government opted for a strategy that wasn't based on fear, distrust and division. That was the main reason it was vilified (by BSers, of course).

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 09, 2021, 01:49:26 PM »
Reply #11276

Thomas in that second chart 100000 is equal to 10000000.

PS: One further article (not Covid related removed). Attack the argument not the poster.

The politics / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: March 07, 2021, 12:55:33 PM »
Who woulda thunk like 20, even 10 years ago that this’d be satire over a Dem senator, not a GOP?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: March 04, 2021, 05:34:22 PM »
I'm mostly curious to see if the numbers will confirm what HYCOM is predicting...

Whereas I'm curious about the differences between the CS2/SMOS, PIOMAS and GOFS thickness maps:

Like last year, Im a little skeptical of those charts because if a colder freezing season than 16/17 produces less volume even with a negative AO then there could be a fault with the model and during the 16/17 season, the PIOMAS and cryosat did disagree but the other way with PIOMAS showing much less volume than cryosat. The theory was maybe the cryostat model was getting fooled by increased snowfall and counting it as thicknesses. Given high pressure has been more in control this winter, I will assume there is less snowfall on the ice pack this year and maybe that is why its showing a lower reading.

Given the weather conditions we seen during the winter and looking at worldview, I will go along with the ice is probably thicker in the Beaufort sea due to multi year ice, the ice is thicker over the Siberian Arctic due to compaction and the ice is quite thin over/near the pole due to first year ice and somewhat higher temperatures.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Casual 2021 melting season predictions
« on: February 19, 2021, 06:22:09 PM »
I predict the professionals who predict ice futures in June [and/or July ...] (averaged) will err by expecting more September Arctic sea ice than the September reality (as published by the professionals) while we (the ASIF folks who vote in forum polls, averaged) will err by expecting less.

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: February 18, 2021, 08:25:25 PM »
It's fine here, too (middle of nowhere BC) - this is the lowest amount of snow we've had at this time of year in the 15 years or so that I've been living here.

Also, LOL Comradez - I had the same reaction to that post...  ::)  :o  ;D
Most of Canada has been pretty dry during this cold event - but when it gets too cold I thought that stopped snow from falling, and the front of the Polar Vortex has mostly been wandering across the Lower 48?

The politics / Re: The Collapse Of America
« on: February 18, 2021, 03:55:32 AM »
If you are not actively fighting for equality, you are part of the problem.
I agree with most of what you say, but not this part.

A week or two ago I read a rather sneering article about Louis Armstrong. Apparently fighting Eisenhower over segregation wasn't enough. He should have been spending every waking minute fighting racism, instead of enjoying his music, smoking pot and smiling a lot. Not everyone is cut out to be a full-time activist. There are other ways to get the message across.

The politics / Re: The Collapse Of America
« on: February 14, 2021, 11:49:21 PM »
Trump acquitted.
Gulty 57  Not guilty 43

America's reputation amongst those who cling to hope for the survival of democracy in the world slips down another notch.

Those in power in the world who regard democracy and accountabiluty as merely irritations to be swept aside take comfort in the verdict.

There is more than one form of collapse.

How silly, the only people trying to end Democracy are those trying to curtail free speech and those who think an International Press , dedicated to the idea that Leftist viewpoints are all correct and must be protected at all costs is the only way to go.
They think by controlling the dialogue and crushing all opposition they are protecting Democracy, it’s exactly the opposite and it’s a shame you don’t get that.

The politics / Re: The Collapse Of America
« on: February 13, 2021, 07:30:13 PM »
Not so Lefty has a line of thinking about the rich and trikle down economics that has been proven wrong time and time and time again.

It is simple to prove wrong.... the rich are getting richer in the US while the poor are getting poorer.
That lovely pie you talk about may be getting bigger, (which is also stupid given we live on a finite planet.... but lets ignore that flaw of logic as well) but the rich take almost all of the extra bits leaving the poor with less per person.

Here is a little article to read to explain this in the current situation...

What you call the so-called poor when I was a child, pretty much doesn’t  exist anymore.
Nobody is hungry, the problem for the poor in America is too much obesity, everyone has a cell phone and the Internet and in my area, everyone wears $150 sneakers LOL.
the worst cars used by the poorest for transportation work better, ride better and need less maintenance than the cars of the past.
Over 60% of Americans own their own homes which means there is more home ownership now then there were people in the country before WW2.
I live in a suburb of NYC and all I see are young people , who went to college, got married, choose a profession where they actually get paid, are having children and are buying homes that over time will add value and become a retirement fund.

my grandfather came here from Europe in 1918 right after WW1.

He was destitute and didn’t speak English but a distant cousin “ sponsored” him , which meant he guaranteed my grandfather wouldn’t use public assistance, medical debt, get in legal trouble, etc.
after three years of eating just enough to live, while working three jobs, he was able to bring over my grandmother and their daughter who was then 4.

He eventually opened his own business , made a decent living working 10 hours a day and raised 4 sons who went off to fight in WW2 instead of attending college.
Those brothers started as peddlers then opened their own business and my cousins and I were able to to attend college and we have mostly all done very well.

my three children are married have three children each and own their own homes in an upscale suburban area which they purchased themselves, not with my help.
What is the point of my story?
It took 100 years for my family to get to a place where everyone is financially “ OK”  , stable.

The American dream is not and never was Free Medical for all, it was and should be the country that no matter how poor and/or uneducated you might be   you can lift yourself up by your own bootstraps and become anything you want through hard work and determination.

Seems like today, people come here , demand everything free, go to school , major in Lesbian dance theory and Leftist ideology , don’t get married, raise children out of wedlock and then complain that the rich are getting richer when they don’t put themselves in a position to make a decent living.

Duh, compound interest is mans best friend, not the dog, the older you get the more wealth you attain just by living and having a plan.

Of course trickle down works, we are a consumer society if the middle class , upper middle class and very rich are spending & creating, people have jobs , trickle down has always worked, the problem is, since the leftists and Globalists joined up a lot of the wealth has been trickling down outside the country , which is why 75 million people supported Trump.

Lockdowns Have Devastated the Global Poor
In particular, developing countries likely do not have the same support structures be it private or public as countries like the United States do. They cannot simply print trillions of dollars to finance quantitative easing policies to prop up the stock market or send stimulus checks to ailing citizens. They also likely lack the private safety nets created by nonprofits and the general flexibility of an advanced business sector. One can only imagine the damage economic depression would bring upon such communities.

U.K. Economy Suffers Biggest Slump in 300 Years Amid Covid-19 Lockdowns
Lockdowns in Britain contributed to the largest contraction of the world’s major economies in 2020

Housing market is a little bit special because houses for rent are mainly built when prices are high, so low prices stop new constructions for rental until prices go up again.

In the US, no one is legally allowed to get evicted for non-payment.  A certain portion of the entire US population is living for free, no rent, no mortgage - free housing.

They say the eviction moratorium is to stop the spread of the virus, but that's a lie.

The real reason is because if they ever lift the moratorium, the 3rd world status of the US will be more obvious.  Massive homeless populations, and massive poverty rates would ensue.

Re: The poor always among us.
Fair, free, equal - Pick two.

Continuing problems with mail delivery
Maryland lawmakers are urging leaders of the United States Postal Service (USPS) to fix mail delivery problems they say continue to plague the USPS well after the holiday rush has ended.

Chicago mail problems mount, US lawmakers get involved
For its part, in a statement to ABC 7, USPS apologized for the inconvenience, blaming COVID-19, weather conditions, and short staff, although a cursory search on the USPS website shows no or few Chicago jobs open. Residents are still left waiting.

The UK may not be in a double-dip recession, but it will feel like it
Slowdown toward end of 2020 will be followed by slump in output in first quarter of 2021

Euro zone in double-dip recession, recovery risks to downside: Reuters poll
The euro zone economy is in double-dip recession amid lockdown restrictions due to a resurgence in coronavirus cases, according to a Reuters poll of economists, who said the risks to their already weak outlook was skewed more to the downside.

How The Pandemic Recession Has Affected Housing Insecurity
For American Indicators, NPR's Ari Shapiro speaks with Lee Camp, a St. Louis attorney who represents tenants, about how the pandemic recession has affected housing insecurity.

Renters Are Getting Evicted Despite 'CDC Eviction Ban' — 'I'm Scared'
Sheila Ambert has finally found another job — scheduling people for COVID-19 vaccinations. And some of her long-delayed unemployment benefits have come through. So she has the money to start paying rent again.
But the landlord is still trying to evict her. And she says that's making it very hard to find another apartment.

Looming Wave of Evictions in San Diego County Due to Pandemic Pause
NBC 7 found that between March of last year and January this year, there were more 2,204 eviction petitions filed with the court

With eviction avalanche looming, court documents fail to ensure due process for tenants | Editorial
A flaw in the Philadelphia eviction system uncovered by this board in July and yet to be addressed is set to make an anticipated avalanche of evictions more harmful and disruptive.

Moratorium Set to Expire With Backlog of Thousands of Pending Evictions
Thousands of tenants are on the verge of eviction because of the pandemic. NBC 7’s Alexis Rivas has more.

Oklahoma bill that would prevent courts from halting evictions during a pandemic passes House committee
The bill is authored by Rep. Tom Gann, (R-Inola). It would prevent courts from halting evictions, even in the event of a health emergency, like the pandemic.   

Judge grants eviction against St. Peters woman too sick from COVID-19 to be allowed in courthouse
Legal expert says the courts face an eviction "tsunami" even with a CDC order in place to keep people in their homes.

Schools teach kids and feed them. As hunger rises, Colorado is racing to ensure kids eat this summer.
“So I think there’s a really, really significant need now that didn’t exist with these levels prior to COVID,” said Ulric, implementation director at the Colorado Blueprint to End Hunger, which aims to eliminate hunger in Colorado in the next four years.

The politics / Re: The Collapse Of America
« on: February 12, 2021, 01:55:00 AM »
Re: Context of Life Expectancy
How much of that is because the US makes Herculean efforts to save inviable babies who die a few days after birth, lowering life expectancy, while other countries just let them die and do not count them? Or is that "fake news"?

The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: February 08, 2021, 01:14:49 PM »
I am certainly not alt-Right.
But am I Right or Left?
I am "Right" on right-to-life.
I am "Left" on environmentalism
I am "Right" on transgenderism.
I am "Left" on immigration.
I am "Right" on same sex marriages.
I am "Left" on racial equality and helping minorities get ahead.
When a pollster calls and asks if I am Conservative or Liberal, I keep saying "Catholic". It drives them nuts.
I do not agree with either political party.

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: February 03, 2021, 12:26:59 AM »
>more and more open water in summer
>atmosphere over cracked up ice ... some day we are going to get a steady drizzle

What make you think these are not gradual processes slowly encroaching further into the Arctic applying throughout the period of record and into the future, and instead are going to pick up in importance in some future period to cause a noticeable acceleration in ice loss?

One is physics.

Open water. If a large stretch of water opens up earlier in the year it will soak up more heat during the summer which will make it harder to freeze when next winter comes. Then there is also a chance of storms mixing up heat from below which increases with the time we have open water during summer.

This is an accelerating process because it further hinders the overall growth of ice and in the HCO it it is the most plausible mechanism for the quick climate flips.

We can also turn the argument around.

Why would you expect this current system to be stable? If we just went through an event which flushed out the big ice then why on earth would that same process fail to flush out much thinner ice in the long term?

The key metric is volume and ice grows from ice. Prolonged open water is what will allow mixing up heat from below at some point. You can go by spreadsheets or think about the physical processes going on.

>If a large stretch of water opens up earlier in the year
This of course has been going throughout last 20 years.

>make it harder to freeze when next winter comes
Heat does build up when there is open water. But come winter open water loses heat much faster. Extent is possibly delayed by a month over last 40 year but winter is longer than a month and given the much faster rate of heat loss through no or thin ice there is quite a bit of time to mostly catch up. Of course this has also been going on throughout last 20 years.

>a chance of storms mixing up heat from below which increases with the time we have open water during summer.
A lot of open water for a long time does seem to offer much more chance for storms to stir up heat. So I think I should admit there is possibility of accelerating effect here. I did wonder whether to argue that we are already giving extra chance of stirring up heat around the edges so this effect is already built into the slow rates of decline before and after the naughties. Perhaps not fully built in and unfortunately I am not sure of the size of this effect - does a storm stir it up everywhere or is it fairly limited to ekman pumping only near the centre of rotation? How significant will this be?

>If we just went through an event which flushed out the big ice then why on earth would that same process fail to flush out much thinner ice in the long term?

I explained that the thick multi year ice if thinned does not regrow in winter. Thin ice if melted out does largely regrow in winter. This is quite different from 'flushing out'.

Since you mention flushing out, have you looked at what happens to remaining MYI from one year to the next? There are big losses in the naughties. Since then one year it may look like it is nearly at point of being flushed out the fram, next year it bounced bach to being more abundant nearer Beaufort. Another year it look like beaufort gyre is about to flush it into Beaufort sea but the next year it bounces back to being more abundant nearer Greenland, another year it may look like the 5 year old MYI is down to a tiny thin strip so perhaps the oldest MYI is going but then it bounces back to a much thicker strip.

This bouncing back makes it quite clear that the MYI is down to a new much lower equilibrium level compared to before 2000. So any losses of this MYI is now slow and the FYI largely grows back each winter.

There are still losses but these are at a slow rate compared to the fast rate when we were losing thick MYI.

The politics / Re: Biden’s Presidency
« on: January 29, 2021, 05:08:49 PM »

Fracking for optimal geothermal outputs may be what is on his mind...
Or maybe Biden's mind is on the 2022 mid-term elections? Remember the Democrat results down-ballot did not live up to the hype in November. Republicans could easily get the House back. Lose the House and his presidency will only have one year max to make a big difference.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 25, 2021, 09:57:29 PM »
Looks like somebody sacrificed the population to let Trump look bad. Archimid, you bad boy, was it you ?

Birx said that her efforts to advise then-President Trump about the pandemic were complicated by people presenting him with "a parallel set of data." [... Alternate facts?]

"I saw the president presenting graphs that I never made, so I know that someone - or someone out there or someone inside - was creating a parallel set of data and graphics that were shown to the president. I k

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: January 23, 2021, 04:59:45 AM »
if you use the word "hiatus" then you have an agenda, nothing innocent there. Especially if you have a history of this kind of discussion.

Sorry, shouldn't have used 'hiatus' if i knew it was so controversial. Could have used 'interregnum' instead :) Where the El Ninos seem to be the rulers, at least in short terms.

My agenda is just that i'm learning all i can about climate. Currently, i've become more interested in the natural variability of the climate, and how it relates to general trends.

The forum is about an exchange of information and thoughts, that's a great learning experience to be able to have such discussions. Thanks!


I am pleased to see someone else argue optimistically that BAU has changed dramatically. Too many around here believe in climate catastrophe is imminent.


Being realistic is not equivalent to expecting climate catastrophe. I, for one, am quite cynical about politicians, but at the same time expect humanity to completely give up fossil in due time. I expect no catastrophe whatsoever. But I expect decades of warming still, because going to zero carbon is a very long process.

- 95% of cars sold in 2021 are using gas/diesel. Those cars will still be on the roads in 2050 (in India, Africa, etc).
- many industrial processes are hard to decarbonise
- gas turbines are needed to counterbalance volatile solar/wind
- newly built coal plants will NOT be closed for a long time (at least a decade) due to sunk costs

Will emissions start to go down some time in the 20s? Hopefully yes (but considering that oil will at least be stable, gas will go up, coal down and industrial and agri likely up that is not sure at all). Shall we hit zero by 2030-40? Absolutely not. Not even by 2050.

2015-20 warmed +0,29 C vs 2005-10. Considering Arctic feedback, it is hard to see how that will not be more in the next decade, since emissions are higher now than 10 yrs ago. We are already +1,2 C above pre industrial. This means that by 2030 we shall hit at least +1,5 C. If you are optimistic then you can argue that warming will slow after this, so maybe +0,2 C and +0,15 C and +0,1 C the following decades. This still means that we will reach around +2 C by 2060 - provided that there are no sudden climate impacts.

I don't think this will make the Earth unlivable. I even think that it will be positive agriculturally for many NH midlatitude countries as they will warm by another 1,5-2 C.


The politics / Re: The Collapse Of America
« on: January 20, 2021, 08:22:42 PM »
FG, you should only post when sober. (I assume).

No, that is not the case with Arctic sea ice. We will lose the summer ice, but not even close to year-round.  Also, summer sea ice can come back if temperatures cool. So not being on an RCP8.5 track is very relevant.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 16, 2021, 07:11:28 PM »
I mostly ignore the original poll on this thread, but it's been a year (13-14 months?) from when the epidemic started with 'reported' worldwide COVID-19 deaths exceeding 2 million, and with probably an additional 1 million of 'related' deaths, aka (additional) excess deaths, I had a look. Nearly half of us underestimated the long-term consequences.

The various threads on the ASI Forum do not tend to predict things very well, but there is a chance our 'average' will come to pass in this instance.  (In other words, I'm ready for the virus to die, disappear or otherwise become harmless.)

The politics / Re: Biden’s Presidency
« on: January 14, 2021, 07:30:59 PM »
I don't think Trump can rise to power ten years from now, FrostKing70...he's too old. The one we have to look out for is some Joe Shmoe character who is a Governor or Senator, or maybe even less known personage, who will rise to power as the 99% get poorer and more desperate.

Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 11, 2021, 02:10:57 PM »
Jaxa Data - a bit more

Antarctic Sea Ice - How average can it get?

The plume shows the erratic nature of extent change over the years.

I attach the graph of the current estimate of the January monthly average. As you can see, the linear change trend is an enormously SMALL 811 Km2 gain per year with an R2 value of 0.00. At 4.7 million the average would be about 200k below that meaningless trend, or more meaningfully about 200k below the 42 year January average.

Meanwhile, the 365 day trailing average is going up - and possibly in around 2 months will reach the 42 year average of 11.6 million km2.

After 42 years of ups and downs one ends up back where one started, But AGW has happened, the AIS is losing mass. But Antarctic sea ice extent does not seem to be a nice simple metric on which to track the impact of AGW.

Tor and El Cid:
You seem to make calculations where forcings are linearly related to emissions, or to concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere.
However, forcings from CO2 are logarithmic.

"The relationship between carbon dioxide and radiative forcing is logarithmic, at concentrations up to around eight times the current value, and thus increased concentrations have a progressively smaller warming effect."

Thus, with flat emissions, the forcings will slowly decline. The decay function for CO2 is central for the argument.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 365 day average extent poll
« on: December 30, 2020, 12:11:10 AM »
If the 2921 melting season does not at least equal that then a new record low is indefinitely postponed.
Maybe not "indefinite", but 900 years is a long time!

The forum / Re: Merry Christmas everyone.
« on: December 26, 2020, 07:20:50 AM »
Merry Christmas all. ;D
The spirit of Christmas is giving to others but not always things and not always to people you know. Think random acts of kindness. Call people and tell them how much you appreciate them.

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