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Messages - Aluminium

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 17
1
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« on: April 17, 2021, 08:09:01 PM »

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: April 17, 2021, 06:57:40 PM »
How much real melt & how much compaction?
There is a third possible component. Winds can push snow away from where it measured.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: April 17, 2021, 06:10:27 PM »
Isnt this just snow compaction, ie. fluffy snow becoming more dense? You don't have real melt at those temperatures, do you?
I think, persistent southerlies (10-20 m/s) did most of it. However, -1.8°C is just a threshold for the ice. It was exceeded in two points, 320 km one from other. Actual temperatures were positive and some melting is quite possible.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: April 17, 2021, 10:46:51 AM »
According to measurements in Cape Vankarem and Uelen, dew point exceeded -1.8°C. In Uelen, measured snow cover fell from 46 cm to 29 cm in 1 day.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: April 17, 2021, 10:02:17 AM »
April 11-16.

2020.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: April 16, 2021, 10:06:17 AM »
Personally I find anomaly temperature maps not very helpful unless accompanied by a regular temperature map.
Regular maps are less informative in terms of comparison. The trend is generally known and comparison seems to be only way to predict something.

Maybe I am the only one who thinks this way but I would appreciate the associated temperature map posted with temperature anomaly maps.
I tend to agree, the best way is to use both.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: April 16, 2021, 09:07:55 AM »
Forecasted temperatures are clearly above zero locally.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: April 16, 2021, 08:44:23 AM »
Warmer weather is not necessarily bad for the ice if it creates more snow cover. However, forecasted conditions in parts of the Chukchi/Beaufort are more suitable for the real melting season than preconditioning. Though the Sun is not as high as in June/July.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: April 14, 2021, 12:59:30 PM »
Relatively cold Siberia and warmth on the Pacific side. Well above normal temperatures in the Arctic Ocean. The Chukchi Sea will probably have enough heat for some melting.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: April 14, 2021, 10:33:45 AM »
April 7-13.

2020.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: River ice and Discharge
« on: April 11, 2021, 07:14:47 PM »
Belokurikha, Altai Krai, April 8.


12
Arctic sea ice / Re: Casual 2021 melting season predictions
« on: April 10, 2021, 08:17:49 PM »
Inconclusive explanation. An ordinary diesel icebreaker is enough to break two-meter one-year-old ice in winter. But in Russia they are building nuclear icebreakers that can break 5-meter ice. This means that serious people in Russia do not believe in further ice melting, and are ready to spend billions on increasing the power of icebreakers.
Once I visited "Lenin" where heard that 1.5 meters ice in winter can be harder for an icebreaker than 3-4 meters ice in summer.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: April 10, 2021, 07:16:15 PM »
There was +4.0°C and rain in Ust-Kara (69.25N 64.93E). Doesn't look like the best weather for the ice.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: April 10, 2021, 11:27:38 AM »
April 3-9.

2020.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: April 08, 2021, 06:22:07 PM »
By the way, the Kara Sea already has positive 5-day average in forecast in some places.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: April 08, 2021, 06:14:30 PM »
2-5 days of perfect melting conditions can beat any possible advantage. Just one armageddon-like heatwave from Siberia in early June. But in case of mild weather I see a chance.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: April 07, 2021, 03:56:13 PM »
PIOMAS volume in the ESS is the highest since 2010. The closest years are 2018, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2006... Excluding 2006, all these year had a minimum below 110 km3 in the ESS.

18
GFS forecast is quite aggressive in Eurasia.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: April 06, 2021, 08:40:45 AM »
March 30 - April 5.

2020.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: April 04, 2021, 10:41:23 PM »
So it seems the equation highly depends on temperature.
https://keisan.casio.com/exec/system/1224575267
Depending on which equation you use. Temperature was very close to current. Using this calculator, I didn't repeat it:

Current hPA at the station is 674.8hPA which when adjusted for sea level corrects to 1083.3hPA.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: April 04, 2021, 09:53:37 PM »
Multiplier is about 1.6. 675.8 hPa should be enough to surpass 1084.8 at sea level. 678.7 to surpass 1089.4.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: April 04, 2021, 08:54:27 AM »
The rapid snow melt both in Eurasia and NA may hit the ice later in season.
Earlier than one could think. Warm airmass is going to attack from the East European Plain. The Kara Sea may have some rain in 5 days. The ice already looks terrible there.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: April 03, 2021, 02:34:08 PM »
Siberia and Canada are melting. Positive anomaly is expected almost everywhere on the edge of snow cover.

The Pacific side is cold and, according to PIOMAS, relatively solid this year, especially in the ESS. With some luck, the season may end with significant amount of ice outside the CAB.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: April 02, 2021, 09:46:31 AM »
March 26 - April 1.

2020.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: March 31, 2021, 09:12:15 PM »
It's still here. Pressure is becoming unreal when this high crosses ice sheet, well above sea level.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: March 29, 2021, 08:23:49 PM »
Wow.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: March 29, 2021, 01:04:10 PM »
March 23-28.

2020.

28
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: March 27, 2021, 06:51:14 PM »

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: March 26, 2021, 09:46:51 AM »
March 20-25.

2020.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: March 24, 2021, 11:21:37 AM »
Yep I was a bit surprised by Aluminiums post and could not tell if they were being tongue in cheek or not.

In terms of the cold temperatures, its an amazing contrast to what happened at this time of year in 2017 with the major 'warmth' which saw air temperatures about 20C above average across the Kara and Laptev seas. All that said, the situation could be totally different come May essoecially if snowcover retreat is rapid again.

I had nothing against anyone, sorry if it felt bad.

There is well known formula: thickness (cm) = 1.33 * FDD (°C)^0.58. Let's do some math: thickness/FDD (cm/°C) = 0,77 * FDD (°C)^(-0.42). If FDD = 500 °C, thickness = 49 cm, thickness/FDD = 0,057 cm/°C. If FDD = 5000 °C, thickness = 186 cm, thickness/FDD = 0,022 cm/°C. Therefore, higher thickness means that freezing is less effective. Until the real melting season will begin in high latitudes, I think, negative anomaly doesn't matter a lot.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: March 23, 2021, 11:32:07 PM »
The latest data from Uelen weather station near the Bering Strait: 10-min average wind speed 19 m/s, southerly. 29 m/s in gusts. I guess, the Chukchi Sea may open a bit.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: March 23, 2021, 11:13:24 AM »
March 17-22.

2020.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: March 22, 2021, 11:52:51 AM »
First, bott of Okhotsk and Berings Sea will likely see a big blow up in the next few days. Okhotsk will be hammered by a sub-970 low which will destroy the ice. Berings will see southerlies soon which will press the ice together.
Indeed, 962 mb low and 1040 mb high combines their power to destroy all ice in the Pacific Ocean. Simultaneously, devastation is ongoing on the Atlantic side, snow cover extent reduced to below average in North America, widespread melting is expected in Eurasia. The melting season will end in July at this rate.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: March 21, 2021, 01:05:53 PM »
18.03 - 21.03, north of Novaya Zemlya.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: March 20, 2021, 06:25:43 PM »
A new low is forecasted to reach Svalbard at 956 mb.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: March 20, 2021, 09:19:22 AM »
March 12-19.

2020.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: March 19, 2021, 01:08:48 PM »
Does it really matter if we'll see new maximum? The Sun is already rising on the North Pole. Spring is coming! Snow cover is going to reduce significantly next days including vicinity of Hudson Bay.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: March 18, 2021, 05:16:33 PM »
Currently winds are more favorable for Fram import than export. Not for a long time though.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: March 18, 2021, 08:14:14 AM »
GFS predicts 969 mb in 42-48 hours. Nothing extraordinary now but it's still strong and long-lived.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: March 16, 2021, 10:03:09 PM »
The latest GFS forecasts 964 mb in 84-102 hours. There is always some thin ice in that place. I expect notable effect in extent/area.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: March 15, 2021, 05:00:33 PM »
I found something similar in the 2016/2017 freezing season. The result was impressive.


42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: March 15, 2021, 02:46:50 PM »
This event is much stronger than we see usually. It's forecasted 100+ km/h at surface, up to 175 km/h at 850 hPa (nullschool). Further forecast is not much better.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: March 15, 2021, 07:21:19 AM »
March 6-14.

2020.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: March 14, 2021, 06:55:36 PM »
High speed heat advection, March 18. Fasten belts!

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: March 09, 2021, 07:35:32 AM »
September 8 - March 8.

46
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 23, 2021, 03:11:56 PM »
Isn´t that in the Ural mountains?
It's close but still Europe and only 75 meters above sea level. More data. About location.

47
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 23, 2021, 01:57:51 PM »
Meanwhile, temperature fell below -50°C in Europe.


48
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: February 21, 2021, 05:31:51 PM »
Has the Gulf of Mexico any ice in history?

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: February 17, 2021, 08:05:50 AM »
January 31 - February 16.

2020.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: February 03, 2021, 08:54:16 AM »
January 19 - February 2.

2020.

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