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Messages - zenith

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The rest / Re: Good music
« on: April 09, 2021, 11:06:39 PM »

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: April 06, 2021, 10:27:31 PM »

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 01, 2021, 12:50:15 AM »
Israel's 7 day average new cases have gone from 3,292 on 3/9, to 1,790 on 3/16, to 925 on 3/23, to 421 as of 3/30.

The plummet really accelerated after the first few days of March (3,664 7-day avg as of 3/2). Since 3/2, the % vaccinated went from 53% / 39% to 58% / 53%.

I would guess the delay in new case reporting is more to blame here than the last vaccines being administered (as well as seasonality now kicking in to reduce r-naught). Only 5% of the population has received their first shot since the plummet began, although 14% did get the 2nd shot.

Manhattan is now up to 40% first shot / 24% second shot. The city overall is at 33% / 19%. Two million doses were administered in March, we should see about 3-4 million administered in April.

Taking into account the lad in infections->cases, as well as seasonality's impending modulation (cases likely peaked last week of March / first week of April in NYC last year, deaths peaked first and second week of April), many Manhattan neighborhoods are now at Israel numbers, and the plummet is likely now starting in localized regions of the US, though this will not be visible in the numbers for another week or two (remember that today's numbers reflect cases from 1-2 weeks ago).

It is quite re-assuring that Israel's numbers are plummeting at a time when they were blowing up last year, even though their vax % looks to be stabilizing in the high 50s (percentage wise). The same situation is now likely unfolding in the most-vax'd localities in the US, and will soon spill over into the rest of the country.

PS: rolling recent numbers forward, Israel will be at (rolling 7-day average) of ~215 on 4/6, ~118 on 4/13, 59 on 4/20, 30 on 4/27, 15 on 5/3, 8 on 5/10, 4 on 5/17, 2 on 5/24, 1 on 5/31, and ZERO by early June. With the return of sunshine etc, these numbers may even be pessimistic. !

Compare Israel to Portugal and explain the difference.

I was relieved to hear, from your earlier post, that once the great USofA reaches the mythical herd immunity the pandemic will be over. you may want to look up the meaning of pandemic and the word parochial while you're at it.

Consequences / Re: Origins of SARS-CoV-2
« on: March 26, 2021, 06:42:30 PM »
published yesterday.
Should we discount the laboratory origin of COVID-19?

Consequences / Re: Origins of SARS-CoV-2
« on: March 26, 2021, 06:39:29 PM »
"Consider the following list of publication titles, many accepted in prestigious journals, from between 2005 and the start of the pandemic in late 2019. They are all authored by Zheng-li Shi. These eighteen research papers constitute the main focus of her published output. What they have in common is that all use the phrase “SARS-like coronavirus” or, later, “SARS-related coronavirus” or a close variant (all are bolded below). These phrases should be understood as technical terms. They denote viruses extremely closely related to SARS and only distantly related to other coronaviruses:...

...What this list demonstrates is that, while Zheng-li Shi at the WIV focused on virus collection, above all, she dedicated her research to understanding zoonotic spillovers to humans of one species alone: the SARS-related coronaviruses.

...We now know, for example, that, at the time of the outbreak, Zheng-li Shi and her colleagues had in their freezers the virus sample known as RaTG13. Among all the known coronaviruses, including within the SARS-related coronaviruses, RaTG13 is by far the closest relative of SARS-CoV-2. We also know that Zheng-li Shi implied she had not actively studied RaTG13 prior to the outbreak (in Zhou et al, 2020). We now know this was false and they had been studying it since at least 2017 (Zhou et al. 2020 addendum). These facts again do not support a natural zoonotic origin."
Why China and the WHO Will Never Find a Zoonotic Origin For the COVID-19 Pandemic Virus

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: March 24, 2021, 05:56:59 PM »
I've noticed that this site is moderated by people that really need to understand that science, ideology and narrative aren't interchangeable. Stripping away any science that doesn't fit your preferred ideology/narrative is unscientific. Then there are the unscientific sheepdogs that make the same mistake. It's really quite stunning to behold and it's always far easier to delete, or pile on in a riotous outburst of childish emotion, rather than make a rational counter-argument. It has nothing to do with science. delete, delete, delete.
I've even had songs deleted in the music thread, hilarious, and pathetic. The day the science died.

Science and Ideology

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: March 21, 2021, 02:55:42 AM »

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: March 21, 2021, 02:52:31 AM »
Hello gobekli tepe.

Beyond the horizon of the place we lived when we were young
In a world of magnets and miracles
Our thoughts strayed constantly and without boundary
The ringing of the division bell had begun

Along the Long Road and on down the Causeway
Do they still meet there by the Cut

There was a ragged band that followed in our footsteps
Running before time took our dreams away
Leaving the myriad small creatures trying to tie us to the ground
To a life consumed by slow decay

The grass was greener
The light was brighter
With friends surrounded
The nights of wonder

Looking beyond the embers of bridges glowing behind us
To a glimpse of how green it was on the other side
Steps taken forwards but sleepwalking back again
Dragged by the force of some inner tide

At a higher altitude with flag unfurled
We reached the dizzy heights of that dreamed of world

Encumbered forever by desire and ambition
There's a hunger still unsatisfied
Our weary eyes still stray to the horizon
Though down this road we've been so many times

The grass was greener
The light was brighter
The taste was sweeter
The nights of wonder
With friends surrounded
The dawn mist glowing
The water flowing
The endless river
Forever and ever

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 20, 2021, 08:01:18 PM »
Long-term prospects for the pandemic probably include COVID-19 becoming an endemic disease, much like influenza. But in the near term, scientists are contemplating a new normal that does not include herd immunity.

Five reasons why COVID herd immunity is probably impossible
Even with vaccination efforts in full force, the theoretical threshold for vanquishing COVID-19 looks to be out of reach.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 19, 2021, 06:53:51 PM »
Canadians could become the perfect mutant vectors with this strategy.

All Canadians could get 1 dose of COVID-19 vaccine by summer — if all goes well

Why? Are they planning to vaccinate people with symptoms or recent positive test or something?

Otherwise UK with 12 weeks between doses and cases running at 6k per day compared to Canada's 3k per day. Seems like UK is twice as bad to me but maybe I am missing something?

The UK produces vaccine while Canada scrambles around trying to get anything they can when they can (read the article). Focusing on having as many people given a single dose while hoping the second doses arrive on schedule is playing with fire. On top of that the variants are on the rise.

The US too.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 18, 2021, 08:33:56 PM »
Canadians could become the perfect mutant vectors with this strategy.

All Canadians could get 1 dose of COVID-19 vaccine by summer — if all goes well

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 18, 2021, 05:09:55 PM »
“If the rampant spread of the virus continues and more critical mutations accumulate, then we may be condemned to chasing after the evolving SARS-CoV-2 continually, as we have long done for influenza virus,” Ho says.

New Study of Coronavirus Variants Predicts Virus Evolving to Escape Current Vaccines, Treatments

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 18, 2021, 04:34:42 PM »
SO FAR THE VIRUS does not appear to have become resistant to COVID-19 vaccines, says vaccinologist Philip Krause, who chairs a WHO working group on COVID-19 vaccines. “The not-so-good news is that the rapid evolution of these variants suggests that if it is possible for the virus to evolve into a vaccine-resistant phenotype, this may happen sooner than we like,” he adds. That possibility adds to the urgency of putting good surveillance in place to detect such escape variants early on, says biostatistician Natalie Dean of the University of Florida.

Some scientists worry that proposed changes in vaccine dosing regimens could hasten the evolution of such strains. Desperate to tame a massive surge in cases, the United Kingdom on 30 December decided to allow up to 12 weeks between the first and second dose of two authorized vaccines, rather than the 3 or 4 weeks used in the vaccines' clinical trials, so more people can get their first dose quickly and have at least some immunity. And the Trump administration decided to ship all available doses immediately, rather than holding back 50% to guarantee that people receive their second doses on time. That policy, which the Biden administration has said it will follow, could inadvertently extend the dosing interval if future vaccine deliveries don't arrive or aren't administered on time.

Widespread delays of the second dose might create a pool of millions of people with enough antibodies to slow the virus and avoid getting sick, but not enough to wipe it out. That could well be the perfect recipe for creating vaccine-resistant strains, says virologist Florian Krammer of the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai: “If we end up with everybody just getting one dose with no doses available for a timely boost, that would in my opinion, be a problem.”

New mutations raise specter of ‘immune escape’

Consequences / Re: Origins of SARS-CoV-2
« on: March 16, 2021, 10:14:16 PM »

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy Transition and Consumption
« on: February 02, 2021, 09:26:10 PM »
Thank you ralfy! At least ralfy (and nanning) comprehend something approximating reality.

Limits Revisited—A review of the limits to growth debate. A report to the All-Party Parliamentary Group on LImits to Growth.

Relying solely on a technological fix is extremely dangerous as it's bound to fail.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 02, 2021, 07:41:50 PM »

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 01, 2021, 06:35:27 PM »
You still refuse to understand that baseload is demand. Yes, everything in any energy discussion is subsidized and manipulated, including green energy. Demand is still demand, a factory gets the juice it needs to operate or it closes. Cities of 10, 20, 30 million people suck up massive amounts of energy to operate, they need a steady supply, the baseload, along with peak loads and any other loads. Why is this so difficult to comprehend? I can't help but notice I've fallen into an echo-chamber where anything can mean whatever is desired.

As for the rest of your assertions, I'm reminded of Paul Kingsnorth.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 01, 2021, 05:53:43 PM »
He was suggesting that baseload demand was tied to the fossil fuel industry, I was making the point that it's not about the source of generation.

To suggest that intermittent sources can't provide the steady supply of juice that civilization demands isn't denial, it's fact. That's why storage capacity is so talked about. I get the impression that many here are in denial of the scope and SCALE required.

If I had known using the word baseload was so loaded I would have never used it. holy moly.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 01, 2021, 02:21:15 AM »
in other words scale, and the scale is mega massive.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 01, 2021, 12:36:30 AM »
Baseload demand is a hurdle so long as intermittent renewables can't provide the necessary power to meet demand. Imagine brown-outs or black-outs and how industry, never mind individuals, would cope with that on a regular basis.

I chose BC because the terminology for those that manage the power grid remains relevant. Base load demand is a real thing regardless of how the electrons are generated. You want to make it about something it's not. Fossil fuels remain the primary source of electrical generation for a reason: people demand power at the flip of a switch. 

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 31, 2021, 11:51:20 PM »
What debate? You don't understand the concept of baseload demand. Furthermore you insist on an ideological physics-in-a-box result for the world, which is absurd.

I live in British Columbia, Canada and our baseload and every other load is generated by hydro-power. If I went to the people that manage our energy grid they would talk in term of baseloads and peak loads, these aren't political terms. I don't live in some small subsection of Australia that may, or may not, be able to cope with baseloads and peak loads based on intermittent sources of generation. 

Again, when/if storage capacity from intermittent sources of electrical generation is realized then all loads/demands would be covered for large parts of the world.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 31, 2021, 11:29:33 PM »
i give up. paiiin. more paaiin. uhhh.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 31, 2021, 10:56:59 PM »
You're a total headache as you don't understand the basic terminology you're using and you're creating arguments where there are none based on your ideological blinkers and the propaganda you consume.

On top of that invoking Denmark as some sort of world model is useless as Denmark is a unique case that's irreproducible in the vast majority of the world.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 31, 2021, 10:19:55 PM »

Baseload is demand, regardless of generation. Our baseload demands per capita have roughly doubled since the 1960's. Peaks and troughs have gone crazy for all sorts of reasons related to the ways we're consuming energy, it's become a nightmare to manage apparently. You want to make baseload something it's not.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 31, 2021, 10:14:43 PM »
That video is all about Musk hype about a plane. Nevertheless, the battery claims that are explored are relevant across the transport sector. It's a cautionary tale.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 31, 2021, 09:15:47 PM »
It's not as though I stuck it in the electric cars thread, it seemed entirely appropriate in the Tesla glory/failure thread. Regardless, the battery education is worth the price of admission. Particularly what's discussed beginning @ 17 mins. in.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 31, 2021, 06:33:02 PM »
When I initially mentioned baseload I said - "Primary sources are baseload providers and renewables aren't there without increased efficiency and storage capacity."

When/if storage capacity is achieved it will provide the baseload required to operate an energy grid.

Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation
« on: January 31, 2021, 06:13:29 PM »
Batteries are much discussed in the video.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 31, 2021, 06:06:05 AM »
"While Baseload Power is a social fiction, it is still grounded in physical reality in power generation."

wtf are we doing with language? Word games don't change reality. This is insanity, you've gone insane and you're insisting I go with you but I refuse. This isn't a political issue it's scientific fact.

Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation
« on: January 31, 2021, 05:58:12 AM »
How is talking about a Tesla plane in the Tesla thread off topic?

I read the article and the last sentence says it all: "The electric aviation race will be as much against bankruptcy as rivals."

We've heard about plenty of things over the years that were going to happen and change the world that are filed in the "where are they now" bin.

As for your other question about landing weights of aircraft:
Why do airplanes dump fuel?

"The reason to dump fuel is simple: to drop weight. Any given aircraft has a Maximum Landing Weight (MLW) at which it can land, and in most cases that weight is lower than its Maximum Takeoff Weight (MTOW). So if an airplane has to return to its departure airport shortly after takeoff – especially when it’s loaded up with fuel for an 11-hour flight like London to Los Angeles – it will likely need to reduce weight in order to land."

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 31, 2021, 01:15:50 AM »
He doesn't address it in this video but somebody in the comments asked a pertinent question: how do you land a plane with all this battery weight onboard? We're truly living in mad times.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 31, 2021, 12:58:30 AM »
Baseload is based on demand. There are peaks and troughs but the baseload remains. Something consistent, predictable and under our control has to deliver.

This is the basic problem, people think words can mean whatever they want them to mean, they don't.

This isn't a fairy tale where you can interpret everything according to your wishes. We're talking about science and realties.

We really are living in lala land in almost every aspect regarding 'reality'. Ape chatter isn't realistic, no matter how much it's repeated. Let's not mention national debts.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 31, 2021, 12:16:12 AM »
Correct, natural gas replacing coal is energy decarbonization according to the scientific definition Smil uses. Base loads are base loads and they need to be met. Primary sources are baseload providers and renewables aren't there without increased efficiency and storage capacity.

Hydro-power is where it's at where I live, and it also provides base load for the US west coast too, like Manitoba does for the central plains States, and Quebec for the Eastern States.

There are places in B.C. where solar panels or wind could make sense but where I live it would be redundant and extremely inefficient compared to the hydro that was built decades ago. Useful on a personnel scale when the power goes out though, but meh. Electric cars are fine in the lower mainland/ van. island of B.C. but rather useless up north as the batteries don't perform. It's not going to happen. Limits, there are limits, even though we're hydro-powered.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 30, 2021, 10:17:24 PM »
We currently have a new mega dam being built in B.C., which is one of the few places on the planet that is 100% hydro-powered, meaning our primary source is turbine generation. This latest dam is going to flood some of the best northern agricultural land in the province, perhaps the world. Why? To provide for our wasteful needs and to sell power to the US, down to California, so they can feel good about driving their Teslas while dreaming that the primary source of the electricity they're consuming comes from the solar panels on their roof.

It's turned into a complete "green" boondoggle.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 30, 2021, 09:49:41 PM »
In other words you don't like, or understand, Smil's comprehensive analysis based on science and the realities that our civilization is built upon. It's really all about bang for buck in energy conversion to power DEMANDS. This isn't an ideological argument, it's a scientific argument. There are primary drivers that power this civilization: fact. period. We have been decarbonizing our energy sources towards those that pack more punch: fact. period. Our energy DEMANDS (extremely wasteful) are met by these sources of power that our current civilization (extremely wasteful) relies on to fulfill our DEMANDS, including for the production of renewable energy. This isn't a video game where the whole planet suddenly levels up. People weren't scientifically idiotic and suddenly everything has changed because the word legacy is invoked as some sort of denigrating magic spell. There are scientific/physical realities (even though physics can't define/understand physical).

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 29, 2021, 10:27:43 PM »
Word Games don't change realities. Smil is not your enemy.

There are so many mundane technological innovations, like building better insulated houses/buildings, that have yet to be adopted and were entirely doable yesterday.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 29, 2021, 08:35:51 PM »
People should read the Smil paper that Ken posted as it gives a brief summary of the scale and complexity transforming our energy demands on a global scale will entail.

Smil is not your enemy. While we dream about all this sexy innovation there are very real things we could be doing to reduce waste and absurd consumption. These are largely based on changing our economic system, priorities and lifestyles and that is beyond the pale. Strip industry of all subsidies and let's find out the true cost of things. Make planned obsolescence illegal. People want their cake and to eat it too. Good luck. Tick-tock goes the clock on our extinction. War is more imaginable than true change. The war machine and technological innovation go hand in hand, like the space race.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 29, 2021, 06:58:00 PM »
wow, your ideological filter leads to reading comprehension difficulties. Any honest actor will see through your gish gallop and I'm not going to waste my time unravelling the mess you just made.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 29, 2021, 05:41:35 PM »
@Richard Rathbone
Bill Gates is Smil's biggest fan until Smil mentions limits, that's verboten according to the ruling "philosophy". Smil wrote that book as a response to the extraordinary claims of Kurzweil et al.

Well that settles that. Who has the 'real' data? Chinese coal power may be going down as part of their overall energy mix but their coal capacity is still increasing. They're also building coal plants in other countries.

@Ken Feldman
When you can give Smil, or anyone, the true cost of the coke that went into making the steel required for the industrial processes for renewables, and the true cost of the diesel required for those processes, like mining and transport, or the true cost of the petroleum in the wind blades then you'd get a more accurate answer. All of it is subsidized so nobody knows the true cost, as I already said.

"To suggest that burning coal is a method of decarbonization is preposterous.  That's what Smil does."
That's not Smil's argument. You could always try reading. I'm done.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 27, 2021, 09:27:04 PM »
@Ken Feldman

To suggest that Vaclav Smil doesn't understand the carbon cycle is beyond absurd. You'll find a way to dismiss him out of hand one way or another though. You're dismissing one of the, if not the, pre-eminent scientific scholars regarding energy transitions on the planet with inane arguments, fyi.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 27, 2021, 08:53:19 PM »

I'm not a climate denier, nor is Smil.
I'm getting a faith based religious vibe going on in this thread, as opposed to a sceptical science based mindset. You'll need to look elsewhere for a heretic to burn.

If somebody posts articles about China's "renewable" energy builds they should off-set that with all the recent coal fired development, that will be around for decades, and all the new coal plants being built.

We don't live in the realm of angels, we live in a messy material world. Simple narratives are appealing though.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 27, 2021, 05:12:01 PM »
@Ken Feldman

Talking about any form of energy in cost ($) terms is pointless as it's all subsidized a million different ways and nobody knows the actual cost of any of it. Smil's arguments are written in academic books that are easily available for you to read and they go far beyond "cost".

You didn't understand your own statement about batteries. You were talking about future batteries, not current batteries, and if batteries ever packed enough power for commercial flight, for ex., they would be bombs waiting for detonation.

Yes, gas burns, or erupts in an explosive fireball even and then it's over. You know there's a difference with battery fires.

The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: January 27, 2021, 04:10:36 PM »
You're operating under the false assumption that you understand what Judaism is about. If you won't read I can't help you.
look up amalek on youtube to hear how that's interpreted.

"Christianity" is an absolute mess.

Welcome to the alt-right... "all the world is a stage..."

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 26, 2021, 11:52:22 PM »
It tells you in big bold letters at the top of the page that's per kg.

Vaclav Smil isn't against renewable energy, he lays out his argument(s) extremely comprehensibly and comprehensively.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 26, 2021, 11:37:25 PM »
"Solar cells are mostly silicon and aluminum"

Electronic grade silicon (CVD process): 7,590-7,755MJ (2,108,700 to 2,154,900 watt-hours).

The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: January 26, 2021, 11:23:48 PM »
I don't know what rock you've been hiding under...

The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: January 26, 2021, 10:47:17 PM »
It could be said that the whole global north, global south divide is racist. I'm not interested in in-group out-group tactics and strategies to live my life, but I'm aware of those who are. Both the Sicilian Mafia and the Ndrangheta are criminals as far as I'm concerned. Lions with manes or without manes are all lions to me. If a pride attacks me from the front in daylight or another attacks me in the dark from behind I'm dead either way.

Just because the DPRK has democratic in the name doesn't mean I believe it. 

I'm suggesting that you question your assumptions and do some reading as the day has dawned and there's a pride of lions wandering around in plain sight, and they've grown very bold and arrogant.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 26, 2021, 10:14:39 PM »

Dr. Vaclav Smil understands he wasted his time writing 44 books as people want to believe what they want to believe. His book on power densities is considered the bible on the subject in some professional circles though.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 26, 2021, 10:10:49 PM »
 @Ken Feldman
"Batteries are improving and will eventually meet our transport needs, even in aircraft."
If that ever happens, which is unlikely, you're proposing to load up transportation with bombs waiting for detonation in an accident.

As for the rest of your ideological wish list, I'm waiting to grow angel wings to fly out of this insane asylum.

The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: January 26, 2021, 04:25:38 PM »
@ be cause

You should take down the post that mentions Jacob and Esau too. The only reason you haven't is due to ignorance as to what it's about in Judaism. The guy dressed up as Esau understood what he was doing though.

Tischler was one of a throng of Orthodox Jews who traveled down to Washington, DC, to join mass protests of the election results Wednesday.

Christian Zionists waving Israeli flags, blowing shofars, throngs of orthodox jews - Trump's base that stormed the capitol.

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