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The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: July 27, 2017, 10:55:25 PM »
I come here daily and only lurk, as I have no expertise in this matter other than what I have picked up in the forum. I am just an interested and frightened observer of what we are doing to the world. It seems to me that Greatdying2 went a little off the rails in this past week, maybe well off the rails, but otherwise has been a valuable contributor.  These are very trying times, particularly in the U.S. right now (I don't know where GD2 is from), and people are falling apart everywhere. Neven runs a terrific forum and let me be the first to support him in his volunteer efforts to police the place, but a suggestion I would make is to maybe give a person a cooling off period before the ban. I seem to remember this happening in the past with a commenter who was quite persistent and grating.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 13, 2017, 05:26:36 AM »
Poor FeeltheBurn. Every time he opens his mouth there's another century drop.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: May 24, 2016, 12:48:19 AM »

When there is no urgency it is always best to collect all the data before formulating a conclusion; however, when time is of the essence it has been mathematically proven that it is optimal to make a decision based on only 37% of the data that you will eventually gather.


ASLR, I don't think you have the Secretary Problem quite right . . . it gets the correct answer 37 percent of the time, which is different from drawing conclusions from only 37 percent of the available data.

Can anyone explain to me the CVFS2 data that show no August anomaly in Arctic sea ice?  Joe Bastardi is trumpeting it on WUWT as the beginning of the end of sea ice decline.  What is the model seeing that the experts here are not, and that is causing this result?

Also as to the "fast" discussion: there is a beautiful short chapter of Moby Dick called "Fast Fish and Loose Fish" that discusses the 19th Century legal test for determining who owns the whale you just speared if there is already someone else's spear in it.  It's fascinating.

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