Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Arctic sea ice => Topic started by: Dharma Rupa on August 04, 2018, 11:50:15 PM

Title: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Dharma Rupa on August 04, 2018, 11:50:15 PM
Excluding any water that is close to the coast or tightly surrounded, like the Hudson or the CAA, when will the Arctic Ocean be ice-free all year, and will that be significantly different from ice-free at the end of Summer?
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: be cause on August 05, 2018, 12:17:17 AM
I'll just go and check gfs before I answer ...
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Wherestheice on August 05, 2018, 12:58:55 AM
I think it will happen sometime between 2050-2100. The Earth is changing rapidly. Paul Beckwith says it will happen by 2030 but I have trouble seeing it happen that soon.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: sark on August 05, 2018, 01:49:19 AM
Here's some very interesting comments by James G. Anderson

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y12P76EYQJ8&t=44s

In order to speak meaningfully about the climate in the arctic beyond ~2035, I believe it is necessary to address fundamental structural changes in the circulation patterns of the northern hemisphere.

(https://14adebb0-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/grf/piomas-trnd1.png?attachauth=ANoY7crGhHVmOEpoRU6C_vMHwg63OkcqeBQmQNcBYHFm3ygHP5miO7tt0AkzyowMjiIUnC7II3dzJtt3hkzVZS38CsvD6fkK9rbuMcrangXKZrO9hkjDPGDnj69Z6a5QBr1e7yASgXZmQoRyUfPNWWdCVo6oXbFqr11GAHrGF6VGEPcuF_nDcEdwLNdu36-Y9XbI7yQaB3LWg5GjPBWjqQPFbtKTcJqumAjgyk58z094oa8Q08AbDyaVF5GUTbIYW7RG82AOQzZE&attredirects=1)

PIOMAS Volume in September has a variety of trends which hit zero in the 2020-2025 timeframe.  It seems a standard expectation is that the ice will retreat to an essentially ice free arctic basin in September, and then refreeze in the winter, and gradually the arctic will open up earlier and freeze up later than before, eventually becoming ice free year-round at some far flung date in the future like 2100.

(we used to talk about a blue ocean event happening in 2100, back in 2006)

However, I don't think we can expect the arctic to behave in a linear fashion to loss of sea ice cover.  We already see the weakening, meandering, and chaotic path finding of the jet stream with merely 1 degree Celsius of warming.  What will a warm arctic ocean surrounded by cold continents bring to the Hadley, Ferrel, and Polar cell distribution pattern of the northern hemisphere?

Are we seeing a decades long process of the three cell system entering chaos as it transforms into an equable climate distribution?

https://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/research/equable/climate.html

Click to animate, ERA-I temperature anomaly of 2007-2017 vs 1979-2000.  To my eyes, many similar reanalyses taking 2007-2017 or 2012-2016 or any such recent period in comparison to earlier periods show a warm arctic with cold anomalies over NH land mass during the winter.  This could be caused, for example, by the inability of the arctic to throw massive warm anomalies in the summer time as the heat is being used to melt ice... and the increasingly meandering jet stream delivering polar air over the continents.  So, in a sense, of course you will have a warm arctic- cold continent signal while there is ice to melt.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 05, 2018, 04:57:01 AM
moved post: I removed this from the ice-free Arctic thread, now seeing this new thread...
My understanding from reading this forum over the years is that there is plenty of heat in the deep parts of the Arctic Ocean to keep the surface ice-free through the winter if the surface 100 meters were thoroughly mixed, and as long as the surface waters remain mixed, under current atmospheric conditions (greenhouse gasses, etc.).  (Have I misunderstood the science?)

I therefore expect a seriously major storm (some day) will mix a large enough section of the central Arctic to effectively destroy the halocline and allow at least months of warm salty water that will refresh itself at the surface (as cooled water, having released heat to the colder air, will sink below warmer water of the same salinity).  Wherever there is sea ice to melt or rivers to flow or massive snows to fall, there will be a natural 'attempt' to reinstall a halocline with cold fresher water at the surface.  Which wins out after the first or second 'seriously major storm', I don't have a clue (the physics is above my abilities), but I rather expect a 'black ocean surface' through winter in the central Arctic within the next twenty years or so.  (I write "black" because it will be Arctic night, and the water won't reflect any blue.)

Over a broken/destroyed/nonexistent halocline region in the winter, the heat exchange will be intense and the air will be very humid.  Whether the resulting fog will keep the 2 meter temperature warm (above -10C) or whether it will calm the seas allowing the halocline to reestablish are beyond me (ahh, atmospheric physics!)
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Dharma Rupa on August 05, 2018, 02:23:38 PM
moved post: I removed this from the ice-free Arctic thread, now seeing this new thread...
My understanding from reading this forum over the years is that there is plenty of heat in the deep parts of the Arctic Ocean to keep the surface ice-free through the winter if the surface 100 meters were thoroughly mixed, and as long as the surface waters remain mixed, under current atmospheric conditions (greenhouse gasses, etc.).  (Have I misunderstood the science?)

I therefore expect a seriously major storm (some day) will mix a large enough section of the central Arctic to effectively destroy the halocline and allow at least months of warm salty water that will refresh itself at the surface (as cooled water, having released heat to the colder air, will sink below warmer water of the same salinity).  Wherever there is sea ice to melt or rivers to flow or massive snows to fall, there will be a natural 'attempt' to reinstall a halocline with cold fresher water at the surface.  Which wins out after the first or second 'seriously major storm', I don't have a clue (the physics is above my abilities), but I rather expect a 'black ocean surface' through winter in the central Arctic within the next twenty years or so.  (I write "black" because it will be Arctic night, and the water won't reflect any blue.)

Over a broken/destroyed/nonexistent halocline region in the winter, the heat exchange will be intense and the air will be very humid.  Whether the resulting fog will keep the 2 meter temperature warm (above -10C) or whether it will calm the seas allowing the halocline to reestablish are beyond me (ahh, atmospheric physics!)

I don't know if it will be a big storm or simply not enough Winter ice making the freshwater cap, but that is more or less what I expect -- though I have no idea of the timeline.  When it happens I think the fog rolls in and the central Arctic stays mixed and warm.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 05, 2018, 08:15:37 PM
I am not sure when the CAB will go ice free in the winter but it will not happen until temperatures north of 80 during the long polar night are significantly warmer than they are currently. The Arctic winters have been warming in an alarming manner. They are still cold enough to cause the CAB to freeze over completely.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Dharma Rupa on August 05, 2018, 09:15:44 PM
I am not sure when the CAB will go ice free in the winter but it will not happen until temperatures north of 80 during the long polar night are significantly warmer than they are currently. The Arctic winters have been warming in an alarming manner. They are still cold enough to cause the CAB to freeze over completely.

So far anyway.  I will be watching DMI 80N in winter very closely for the next few years -- though I think the most interesting time at first will be what happens at about day 250.  If the long tail of warm continues to grow then I will become pretty confident about my guess on what will happen.  If the temps revert to the norm in the Fall then I might have to rethink my expectations.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 05, 2018, 10:30:52 PM
So far anyway.  I will be watching DMI 80N in winter very closely for the next few years -- though I think the most interesting time at first will be what happens at about day 250.  If the long tail of warm continues to grow then I will become pretty confident about my guess on what will happen.  If the temps revert to the norm in the Fall then I might have to rethink my expectations.

The temps will not revert to normal in the fall. In fact, the fall is when we will continue to see anomalously warm temps due to the vast stretches of open water giving up their heat and commencing to freeze. Freezing Degree Days matter and until this drops to the point that freezing does not happen, we will see ice form.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on August 06, 2018, 06:52:59 PM

(we used to talk about a blue ocean event happening in 2100, back in 2006)


By far the most salient quote I've read here in the last few years.

Something I find fascinating is the consistent reversion to the mean mentality people hang onto despite being show in the recent past the drastic incorrectness of these projections. In other words, even the most well informed are not able to adjust their forecast away from the conventional wisdom regardless of REAL WORLD observations proving change FASTER THAN FORECAST by conventional wisdom.

I'd like to make an analogy based from the most different field imaginable: shooting.

External ballistics is a very complicated science. Shooting at far away things is complex and it is difficult to properly integrate all the variables to accurately forecast where a bullet will strike.  After the first shot visibly "splashes" it is possible to figure out how far off you were. However, this doesn't inform you as to the variable(s) which you got wrong.  So you can do new math, and make some new guesses and shoot again (example: maybe it is windier between you and the target than you guess). But if your first bullet splashed 10 feet left, and after your new math, your 2nd bullet splashed 9 feet left, the best thing to do for your 3rd shot is to simply aim 9 feet to the right. It's known as Kentucky Windage.

What I witness on these forms is people land their rounds to the left of the target every time, and simply insist that their math is good and their sights are good, and this next shot will clearly hit the target.  (this is the "we won't lose all the ice until 2200 crowd")

(FYI: in my example adjusting the sights would be akin to coming up with new physics which is not really an option, so I pretended like the sights were fixed.)
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: sark on August 06, 2018, 08:25:07 PM

(we used to talk about a blue ocean event happening in 2100, back in 2006)


...

Something I find fascinating is the consistent reversion to the mean mentality people hang onto despite being show in the recent past the drastic incorrectness of these projections. In other words, even the most well informed are not able to adjust their forecast away from the conventional wisdom regardless of REAL WORLD observations proving change FASTER THAN FORECAST by conventional wisdom.

...

Was looking for the examples I recall and came across an excellent website: http://climatechangepredictions.org/categories/arctic_sea_ice

The arctic sea ice disappearance by 2100 quote if I recall came from IPCC's 4th assessment report published in 2007:

"contraction of snow cover area, increases in thaw depth
over most permafrost regions and decrease in sea ice extent;
in some projections using SRES scenarios, Arctic
late-summer sea ice disappears almost entirely by the latter
part of the 21st century"

Here were some of the typically alarmist click-bait titles of the day

Arctic clear for summer sailing by 2040 - Published online 11 December 2006
https://www.nature.com/news/2006/061211/full/news061211-1.html

Arctic Ice Field Could Melt By 2080 - Berlin (AFP) Dec 05, 2006)
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Arctic_Ice_Field_Could_Melt_By_2080_999.html

And of course, after 2007 and 2012 there were exponential trend curves on the PIOMAS September Volume time series that hit 0 at 2016 or 2017, and nobody really believed that.  If anyone really thought you wouldn't have a retracement after 2012 I don't know who they are.  Yet, I'm sure there were click bait articles suggesting such an early melt out back in 2013.  This is seized upon by deniers who can lol at the folly of knowledge with such cherry picked examples of failed forecasts.

It's a real problem, and I think it has led to a lot of scientists working toward improving their communications, but the fact is that the IPCC and individual scientists working on their research are forced to make the whole thing more palatable so that fossil fuel and large corporate interests will tolerate their research and they won't end up hacked, attacked, and defunded.

Personally I think it's not up to scientists to communicate this message.  It is up to people like me, a high school dropout, who has had it with the inability for government to respond.  People like me are free to be political and dismissive and populist and activist, scientists are confined to higher principles that aren't effective in this confused and distracted commercial-industrial empire.

They sell, we buy.  It is a conspiracy of all of us.

But, getting back to the topic of thread of arctic sea ice disappearance in winter, I don't think it is wise to apply the same filter of "faster than expected" to published estimates.  We can now reasonably expect an open water arctic ocean in September - October near 2025.

I'm expecting the entire northern hemisphere to enter atmospheric chaos as jet streams work out path finding around Greenland and Siberia and the CAA in winter, and muddy completely in summer, leading to a more unicellular northern hemisphere in the timeframe of 2035-2045.

The jet stream wind patterns of the northern hemisphere already look like a bucket of mixed paint in the summer.

That, I believe, is the structural changes to climate that will lead to the arctic ocean being ice free year-round and I can see it happening with an accumulated global warming of +2 or +3 degrees Celcius, which I further guess will be seen by 2050.  so I'd put an ice free arctic during WINTER at the year 2050.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: El Cid on August 06, 2018, 09:16:08 PM
Paul Beckwith says it will happen by 2030 but I have trouble seeing it happen that soon.

Judging by his videos, Mr.Beckwith is pretty much nuts.

Truth is, our climate models can not even model a Green Sahara which happened just a couple of thousand years ago, and they are also not very good at modelling paleoclimate either (without some very articial tweaks). So, nobody knows when the Arctic goes icefree during winter. Noone has a clue
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: bbr2314 on August 06, 2018, 09:23:34 PM
Paul Beckwith says it will happen by 2030 but I have trouble seeing it happen that soon.

Judging by his videos, Mr.Beckwith is pretty much nuts.

Truth is, our climate models can not even model a Green Sahara which happened just a couple of thousand years ago, and they are also not very good at modelling paleoclimate either (without some very articial tweaks). So, nobody knows when the Arctic goes icefree during winter. Noone has a clue
I can explain Green Sahara!

The bulge of warm SSTAs that enters the NATL during periods of warming shunts Greenland airmasses into Quebec instead of allowing more general movement. This results in the reglaciation of Quebec, and a severely intensified NW NATL cold pool, inklings of both of which we have seen develop this year.

Subsequently the Greenland-Quebec modified airmasses drift across the NATL before encountering the warm pool NW of Europe,whereby they fall into Iberia and Northwest Africa, resulting in much more humid and substantially cooler conditions, both of which we have also seen evolve this year. This also yields increased heat transport northward across the Eastern Sahara, at least for the moment, resulting in increasingly scorching temperatures for much of Europe and Eastern Africa, until reglaciation accelerates in Quebec to the point where the NE NATL warm bubble is resolved and glaciation commences in Europe as well.

I suspect increased seasonal snowfall across the Atlas Mountains due to ^^^ is also to blame on a local level, as this allows additional airmass modification / humidity / cooling across adjacent and downstream regions of the Sahara.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: sark on August 06, 2018, 09:53:06 PM
Paul Beckwith says it will happen by 2030 but I have trouble seeing it happen that soon.

Judging by his videos, Mr.Beckwith is pretty much nuts.


I like Paul Beckwith, but I think the problem is that he makes a lot of proclamations and explanations without couching all of it deeply in uncertainty.  The truth is, we have only a foggy idea of what's going on and what will be.  When Beckwith is describing his ideas about abrupt climate changes, he's not really supporting his comments with peer-reviewed geophysical research.

I don't mind that so much,  because I find him a wealth of information about rapid climate transitions, and it takes courage to leave your comments unconfined to that supported by literature.

it is a little annoying to be beat over the head with hypotheses that may or may not have merit, but that's how humans think.  we're a simulacrum of consciousness.  in order to assimilate information, we need to put it into a story, and that gives us a mental picture.

Personally with CO2 levels accelerating through 410ppm and a host of other greenhouse gasses in an otherwise dimmed, smoky sky, I can't really see the growth of glaciers anywhere on this planet, but that's just my own personal mental picture of the future... a future we're only able to predict in the broadest strokes.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on August 06, 2018, 10:32:14 PM
Agree with sark in too many ways to quote.

It is a huge problem when the sources of pessimistic predictions are click-bait-esque, and the optimistic predictions are the more scientifically rigorous articles. I understand the restraints on serious science to make bold predictions, but I believe the scientists should go out of their way to stress in their personal public communications the real possibilities of drastic near term consequences which are very real yet effectively unpublishable due to the inherent complexities and uncertainties.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: sark on August 06, 2018, 10:57:17 PM
I would also like to see researchers and publishers less constrained by fear of repercussions to tell us how they really feel about the pace of global warming and what sort of world will emerge by 2050.  I think scientists would have a much easier time telling us what they really think if you had a large movement of people talking about this in popular culture.

More and more people are talking about this thing, and we're only at +1C.  It's unfortunate that it has to been seen and experienced before anyone will do anything about it, but, here we are... we're seeing it and experiencing it.

It isn't just up to the scientists to communicate this, and government isn't going to do anything about it.  I'm done waiting for a managerial solution to the problem.  It's time for individual action to mitigate the emissions of greenhouse gasses.

There could be a critical mass of people who drop their personal greenhouse gas emissions from 20 or 10 tonnes, down to 2 tonnes per annum.  Doing that is very difficult, today.  If many people start doing it, a market for low and no carbon trade will emerge, legal frameworks will be established, local food networks will expand... and then it wouldn't be so difficult for someone who has a family to take this path.

I'm heading into the forest for a few days of off the grid.  Before I leave, I will criticize Paul Beckwith for sitting down with at least one promulgator of pseudoscience, who is a fraud and a clown and I hope never to read his name on this forum.  Paul Beckwith is much, much better than that, and I'm sad he sat down and did an interview with this guy.

I'll leave whoever is reading this with a video that I really like, Kevin Anderson, Delivering on 2C

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gJ78vDU17Y
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: bbr2314 on August 06, 2018, 11:24:40 PM
I would also like to see researchers and publishers less constrained by fear of repercussions to tell us how they really feel about the pace of global warming and what sort of world will emerge by 2050.  I think scientists would have a much easier time telling us what they really think if you had a large movement of people talking about this in popular culture.

More and more people are talking about this thing, and we're only at +1C.  It's unfortunate that it has to been seen and experienced before anyone will do anything about it, but, here we are... we're seeing it and experiencing it.

It isn't just up to the scientists to communicate this, and government isn't going to do anything about it.  I'm done waiting for a managerial solution to the problem.  It's time for individual action to mitigate the emissions of greenhouse gasses.

There could be a critical mass of people who drop their personal greenhouse gas emissions from 20 or 10 tonnes, down to 2 tonnes per annum.  Doing that is very difficult, today.  If many people start doing it, a market for low and no carbon trade will emerge, legal frameworks will be established, local food networks will expand... and then it wouldn't be so difficult for someone who has a family to take this path.

I'm heading into the forest for a few days of off the grid.  Before I leave, I will criticize Paul Beckwith for sitting down with at least one promulgator of pseudoscience, who is a fraud and a clown and I hope never to read his name on this forum.  Paul Beckwith is much, much better than that, and I'm sad he sat down and did an interview with this guy.

I'll leave whoever is reading this with a video that I really like, Kevin Anderson, Delivering on 2C

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gJ78vDU17Y

There will be no critical mass and if there is it will only bring about cataclysm sooner than later due to the reduction in aerosols and resultant boost to AGW of +.5C-+1.5C. We are screwed and there is no hope. Sorry!
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: sark on August 06, 2018, 11:28:13 PM

There will be no critical mass and if there is it will only bring about cataclysm sooner than later due to the reduction in aerosols and resultant boost to AGW of +.5C-+1.5C. We are screwed and there is no hope. Sorry!

I detest what you write, but I would give my life to make it possible for you to continue to write.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: El Cid on August 07, 2018, 12:04:55 AM
Paul Beckwith says it will happen by 2030 but I have trouble seeing it happen that soon.

Judging by his videos, Mr.Beckwith is pretty much nuts.

Truth is, our climate models can not even model a Green Sahara which happened just a couple of thousand years ago, and they are also not very good at modelling paleoclimate either (without some very articial tweaks). So, nobody knows when the Arctic goes icefree during winter. Noone has a clue
I can explain Green Sahara!



bbr!

That is nice, but as far as we know that is not how it happened. During the Holocene Climate Optimum Europe was pretty warm AND we had a green sahara, so no glaciation there...

I have seen two good papers modelling the Green sahara during the HCO but they really had to tweak/push the models to get the "desired" results, ie. enough precipitation in N.Africa. Same goes for modelling the Pliocene...

So I have serious doubts about our current models. I also have doubts about your Quebec glaciation hypothesis, although I like it for being interesting.

As the Chinese curse goes: "May you live in interesting times!"  :)

 
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: bbr2314 on August 07, 2018, 12:12:32 AM
Paul Beckwith says it will happen by 2030 but I have trouble seeing it happen that soon.

Judging by his videos, Mr.Beckwith is pretty much nuts.

Truth is, our climate models can not even model a Green Sahara which happened just a couple of thousand years ago, and they are also not very good at modelling paleoclimate either (without some very articial tweaks). So, nobody knows when the Arctic goes icefree during winter. Noone has a clue
I can explain Green Sahara!



bbr!

That is nice, but as far as we know that is not how it happened. During the Holocene Climate Optimum Europe was pretty warm AND we had a green sahara, so no glaciation there...

I have seen two good papers modelling the Green sahara during the HCO but they really had to tweak/push the models to get the "desired" results, ie. enough precipitation in N.Africa. Same goes for modelling the Pliocene...

So I have serious doubts about our current models. I also have doubts about your Quebec glaciation hypothesis, although I like it for being interesting.

As the Chinese curse goes: "May you live in interesting times!"  :)
Thank you! But I think I may have phrased it wrong -- I think Green Sahara occurs simultaneously as Europe reaches peak warmth (except for the Iberian peninsula).

As the Sahara re-greens and glaciation progresses, Europe eventually ices over, but initially, both Sahara Greening and "warm Europe" (or most of Europe) would occur simultaneously, with both happening due to the build-up of very warm ocean water in the NE NATL (simultaneously heating Europe, while forcing Greenland/Quebec airmasses S, into N Africa). Of course, it ends with Europe freezing over as the warm bubble is resolved, leaving the Sahara the only area of "optimized" climate.

Hopefully this makes a bit more sense.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Sebastian Jones on August 07, 2018, 12:47:36 AM

I can explain Green Sahara!


The bulge of warm SSTAs that enters the NATL during periods of warming shunts Greenland airmasses into Quebec instead of allowing more general movement. This results in the reglaciation of Quebec, and a severely intensified NW NATL cold pool, inklings of both of which we have seen develop this year.

Subsequently the Greenland-Quebec modified airmasses drift across the NATL before encountering the warm pool NW of Europe,whereby they fall into Iberia and Northwest Africa, resulting in much more humid and substantially cooler conditions, both of which we have also seen evolve this year. This also yields increased heat transport northward across the Eastern Sahara, at least for the moment, resulting in increasingly scorching temperatures for much of Europe and Eastern Africa, until reglaciation accelerates in Quebec to the point where the NE NATL warm bubble is resolved and glaciation commences in Europe as well.

.....

As the Sahara re-greens and glaciation progresses, Europe eventually ices over, but initially, both Sahara Greening and "warm Europe" (or most of Europe) would occur simultaneously, with both happening due to the build-up of very warm ocean water in the NE NATL (simultaneously heating Europe, while forcing Greenland/Quebec airmasses S, into N Africa). Of course, it ends with Europe freezing over as the warm bubble is resolved, leaving the Sahara the only area of "optimized" climate.

Hopefully this makes a bit more sense.

Perfect sense except for the awkward fact that both western North Africa and Iberia experienced record heat this summer.....
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: bbr2314 on August 07, 2018, 01:06:11 AM

I can explain Green Sahara!


The bulge of warm SSTAs that enters the NATL during periods of warming shunts Greenland airmasses into Quebec instead of allowing more general movement. This results in the reglaciation of Quebec, and a severely intensified NW NATL cold pool, inklings of both of which we have seen develop this year.

Subsequently the Greenland-Quebec modified airmasses drift across the NATL before encountering the warm pool NW of Europe,whereby they fall into Iberia and Northwest Africa, resulting in much more humid and substantially cooler conditions, both of which we have also seen evolve this year. This also yields increased heat transport northward across the Eastern Sahara, at least for the moment, resulting in increasingly scorching temperatures for much of Europe and Eastern Africa, until reglaciation accelerates in Quebec to the point where the NE NATL warm bubble is resolved and glaciation commences in Europe as well.

.....

As the Sahara re-greens and glaciation progresses, Europe eventually ices over, but initially, both Sahara Greening and "warm Europe" (or most of Europe) would occur simultaneously, with both happening due to the build-up of very warm ocean water in the NE NATL (simultaneously heating Europe, while forcing Greenland/Quebec airmasses S, into N Africa). Of course, it ends with Europe freezing over as the warm bubble is resolved, leaving the Sahara the only area of "optimized" climate.

Hopefully this makes a bit more sense.

Perfect sense except for the awkward fact that both western North Africa and Iberia experienced record heat this summer.....
They may have experienced brief record heat but it has generally been much cooler than normal.

Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: miki on August 07, 2018, 01:16:44 AM

They may have experienced brief record heat but it has generally been much cooler than normal.

It is obvious you're not of these parts.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: magnamentis on August 07, 2018, 01:17:11 AM

I can explain Green Sahara!


The bulge of warm SSTAs that enters the NATL during periods of warming shunts Greenland airmasses into Quebec instead of allowing more general movement. This results in the reglaciation of Quebec, and a severely intensified NW NATL cold pool, inklings of both of which we have seen develop this year.

Subsequently the Greenland-Quebec modified airmasses drift across the NATL before encountering the warm pool NW of Europe,whereby they fall into Iberia and Northwest Africa, resulting in much more humid and substantially cooler conditions, both of which we have also seen evolve this year. This also yields increased heat transport northward across the Eastern Sahara, at least for the moment, resulting in increasingly scorching temperatures for much of Europe and Eastern Africa, until reglaciation accelerates in Quebec to the point where the NE NATL warm bubble is resolved and glaciation commences in Europe as well.

.....

As the Sahara re-greens and glaciation progresses, Europe eventually ices over, but initially, both Sahara Greening and "warm Europe" (or most of Europe) would occur simultaneously, with both happening due to the build-up of very warm ocean water in the NE NATL (simultaneously heating Europe, while forcing Greenland/Quebec airmasses S, into N Africa). Of course, it ends with Europe freezing over as the warm bubble is resolved, leaving the Sahara the only area of "optimized" climate.

Hopefully this makes a bit more sense.

Perfect sense except for the awkward fact that both western North Africa and Iberia experienced record heat this summer.....

but i'am and my dad is and my grandma was and measuring temps is a daily thing on each side of the house and i drive mostly by motorbike and visit the ocean each day so many times i have to listen to my gut feeling while this time i know and no-one can convince me of something i can feel and measure myself every day.

everyone of my neighbours and friends agree that we have second very pleasant summersi in a row, until now whithout one single day with 33-36C night temps which before we had almost each year

further we had a lot of rain in southern spain and the entire spring was cool, it's mostly even cooler here than in germany and other middle european countries.

don't fall for headlines and madrid is not spain and lisbon is not portugal etc.

each years some are calling me that they heard it's snowing in spain while the news mentioned asome snow that remained a few minutes or hours in madrid and then in the mountains it snows each year.

i write this because it's the second time someone makes that claim taken from mainstream media and i can tell you that i have 6 inside and 3 outside thermometers (in the shadow of course) even with highest and lowest temp feature stored for up to two years and it's very pleasantly cool below 40 a t all times with one single exception this year.

of course i can speak only for my area but i know that others have even cooler temps, up to 5C less in marbella that's about 60km from here.

as to temps they're often presented very misleading, by country, by max without mentioning wheter that max was reached for a few minutes or 8 hours etc. etc.

only thing i know we have sufficient water, not many wildfires and no superhot days or nights yet and to the east and to the west it's even more so.

the hottest spots here are cordoba and sevilla and even they reach 43 while 45 is very common each year, both is super hot of corse but not extraordinary hot for those places.

further i can tell you that we go 3 times per week for sports at the beach and all members of our group agree that is was extraordinarily cool, windy and humid this spring as well.

i read a lot of such things but rarely can proof something while in this case i've spent each day here which is an exception and checked the measurement tools each day several times to decide when to open and close which windows and whethter it's too hot (or cold in winter) to get up for sports.

i'm not a weather pro but they're more often off than not if conditions are not stable and then at least i had to learn weather to get and keep my pilots and watercraft license and once upon a time as a 4 days a week windsurfer it was key to learn something about the weather.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: bbr2314 on August 07, 2018, 01:18:41 AM

They may have experienced brief record heat but it has generally been much cooler than normal.

It is obvious you're not of these parts.
Do you not see the maps? I was in Barcelona last week and I am still in Europe. It is hot. But Iberia is not all of Europe and Morocco is not all of Africa.

Also, as the NATL anomalies are resolved due to lack of snowmelt / Greenland melt, the cold pool is dissipating and the entirety of Europe will scorch. Cold Iberia / Africa is dependent on a sustained NATL cool pool.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: bbr2314 on August 07, 2018, 01:21:15 AM

I can explain Green Sahara!


The bulge of warm SSTAs that enters the NATL during periods of warming shunts Greenland airmasses into Quebec instead of allowing more general movement. This results in the reglaciation of Quebec, and a severely intensified NW NATL cold pool, inklings of both of which we have seen develop this year.

Subsequently the Greenland-Quebec modified airmasses drift across the NATL before encountering the warm pool NW of Europe,whereby they fall into Iberia and Northwest Africa, resulting in much more humid and substantially cooler conditions, both of which we have also seen evolve this year. This also yields increased heat transport northward across the Eastern Sahara, at least for the moment, resulting in increasingly scorching temperatures for much of Europe and Eastern Africa, until reglaciation accelerates in Quebec to the point where the NE NATL warm bubble is resolved and glaciation commences in Europe as well.

.....

As the Sahara re-greens and glaciation progresses, Europe eventually ices over, but initially, both Sahara Greening and "warm Europe" (or most of Europe) would occur simultaneously, with both happening due to the build-up of very warm ocean water in the NE NATL (simultaneously heating Europe, while forcing Greenland/Quebec airmasses S, into N Africa). Of course, it ends with Europe freezing over as the warm bubble is resolved, leaving the Sahara the only area of "optimized" climate.

Hopefully this makes a bit more sense.

Perfect sense except for the awkward fact that both western North Africa and Iberia experienced record heat this summer.....

but i'am and my dad is and my grandma was and measuring temps is a daily thing on each side of the house and i drive mostly by motorbike and visit the ocean each day so many times i have to listen to my gut feeling while this time i know and no-one can convince me of something i can feel and measure myself every day.

everyone of my neighbours and friends agree that we have second very pleasant summersi in a row, until now whithout one single day with 33-36C night temps which before we had almost each year

further we had a lot of rain in southern spain and the entire spring was cool, it's mostly even cooler here than in germany and other middle european countries.

don't fall for headlines and madrid is not spain and lisbon is not portugal etc.

each years some are calling me that they heard it's snowing in spain while the news mentioned asome snow that remained a few minutes or hours in madrid and then in the mountains it snows each year.

i write this because it's the second time someone makes that claim taken from mainstream media and i can tell you that i have 6 inside and 3 outside thermometers (in the shadow of course) even with highest and lowest temp feature stored for up to two years and it's very pleasantly cool below 40 a t all times with one single exception this year.

of course i can speak only for my area but i know that others have even cooler temps, up to 5C less in marbella that's about 60km from here.

as to temps they're often presented very misleading, by country, by max without mentioning wheter that max was reached for a few minutes or 8 hours etc. etc.

only thing i know we have sufficient water, not many wildfires and no superhot days or nights yet and to the east and to the west it's even more so.

the hottest spots here are cordoba and sevilla and even they reach 43 while 45 is very common each year, both is super hot of corse but not extraordinary hot for those places.

further i can tell you that we go 3 times per week for sports at the beach and all members of our group agree that is was extraordinarily cool, windy and humid this spring as well.

i read a lot of such things but rarely can proof something while in this case i've spent each day here which is an exception and checked the measurement tools each day several times to decide when to open and close which windows and whethter it's too hot (or cold in winter) to get up for sports.
They ignore my maps of actual data, they will ignore your first-hand account of actualities as well, but ignorance is bliss so who can blame them?
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: colchonero on August 07, 2018, 03:40:00 AM

I can explain Green Sahara!


The bulge of warm SSTAs that enters the NATL during periods of warming shunts Greenland airmasses into Quebec instead of allowing more general movement. This results in the reglaciation of Quebec, and a severely intensified NW NATL cold pool, inklings of both of which we have seen develop this year.

Subsequently the Greenland-Quebec modified airmasses drift across the NATL before encountering the warm pool NW of Europe,whereby they fall into Iberia and Northwest Africa, resulting in much more humid and substantially cooler conditions, both of which we have also seen evolve this year. This also yields increased heat transport northward across the Eastern Sahara, at least for the moment, resulting in increasingly scorching temperatures for much of Europe and Eastern Africa, until reglaciation accelerates in Quebec to the point where the NE NATL warm bubble is resolved and glaciation commences in Europe as well.

.....

As the Sahara re-greens and glaciation progresses, Europe eventually ices over, but initially, both Sahara Greening and "warm Europe" (or most of Europe) would occur simultaneously, with both happening due to the build-up of very warm ocean water in the NE NATL (simultaneously heating Europe, while forcing Greenland/Quebec airmasses S, into N Africa). Of course, it ends with Europe freezing over as the warm bubble is resolved, leaving the Sahara the only area of "optimized" climate.

Hopefully this makes a bit more sense.

Perfect sense except for the awkward fact that both western North Africa and Iberia experienced record heat this summer.....

but i'am and my dad is and my grandma was and measuring temps is a daily thing on each side of the house and i drive mostly by motorbike and visit the ocean each day so many times i have to listen to my gut feeling while this time i know and no-one can convince me of something i can feel and measure myself every day.

everyone of my neighbours and friends agree that we have second very pleasant summersi in a row, until now whithout one single day with 33-36C night temps which before we had almost each year

further we had a lot of rain in southern spain and the entire spring was cool, it's mostly even cooler here than in germany and other middle european countries.

don't fall for headlines and madrid is not spain and lisbon is not portugal etc.

each years some are calling me that they heard it's snowing in spain while the news mentioned asome snow that remained a few minutes or hours in madrid and then in the mountains it snows each year.

i write this because it's the second time someone makes that claim taken from mainstream media and i can tell you that i have 6 inside and 3 outside thermometers (in the shadow of course) even with highest and lowest temp feature stored for up to two years and it's very pleasantly cool below 40 a t all times with one single exception this year.

of course i can speak only for my area but i know that others have even cooler temps, up to 5C less in marbella that's about 60km from here.

as to temps they're often presented very misleading, by country, by max without mentioning wheter that max was reached for a few minutes or 8 hours etc. etc.

only thing i know we have sufficient water, not many wildfires and no superhot days or nights yet and to the east and to the west it's even more so.

the hottest spots here are cordoba and sevilla and even they reach 43 while 45 is very common each year, both is super hot of corse but not extraordinary hot for those places.

further i can tell you that we go 3 times per week for sports at the beach and all members of our group agree that is was extraordinarily cool, windy and humid this spring as well.

i read a lot of such things but rarely can proof something while in this case i've spent each day here which is an exception and checked the measurement tools each day several times to decide when to open and close which windows and whethter it's too hot (or cold in winter) to get up for sports.

i'm not a weather pro but they're more often off than not if conditions are not stable and then at least i had to learn weather to get and keep my pilots and watercraft license and once upon a time as a 4 days a week windsurfer it was key to learn something about the weather.

I don't have time to analyze now, I agree with most of the things, as I myself am from Madrid (Spanish-American), not there in the last 15 days though, I am on vacation, so I haven't experienced this heatwave. The thing I want to say real quick (the only thing that I don't agree) is when you said that we've had two normal and pleasant Summers. I mean it's not even a disagreement, maybe just different locations as you have mentioned above, Madrid is not that close to Marbella.

So, last year we've had (in Madrid) 3 or 4 similar heatwaves to this current one, when temp reached 40C (which is really high when you consider that Madrid is at 700m above sea level) and Montoro measured a national record with 47,3C. So it was exceptional. This summer when you look at aemet es. (Spanish meteo center) you'll find that it was pretty normal. But the statistics don't show that personal gut feeling that you wrote about. There were so many cloudy days through June and part of July, and I can't recall such a rainy spring as this one. So everyone here thinks this was one of the coldest spring/beginning of the summer in the last XY years (because 20C is not the same on a sunny/rainy day). Last year we've had the total opposite, the summer was dominated by high pressure, I couldn't find a "single cloud" (paraphrasing) for days, there were heatwaves especially in the first part, and then the drought came and held until the Winter. Experts say it was the worst drought in the last 20+ years.  Manzanares river contrast between the 2 years(a small river in Madrid, I don't know if that should even qualify for being called a river  ;D ;D) was so huge. Last year it was almost gone, and this spring I thought, I was looking at Guadalquivir :D :D  (a big river in southern Spain)
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on August 07, 2018, 04:42:29 AM
not sure the above could be more off topic
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Michael Hauber on August 07, 2018, 06:07:25 AM
Ice free in winter is not going to happen in the next few centuries.

(https://i.imgur.com/KyKdaXi.png)
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Sam on August 07, 2018, 06:54:35 AM
Predicting on extent or area is misleading. They are 2D measures and exclude the vital third dimension - thickness. The thickness is failing far faster than the areal measures.

Extent in particular is most misleading. It counts any area with 15% ice as all ice. As the ice cap breaks apart from thinning and losing integrity, it is shattering and spreading out. This is especially apparent over the last decade. This falsely makes the extent appear far larger than it really is.

Based on the thinning (volume), the Arctic will be ice free in September in about 2022-2023 plus or minus about two years. And yes, if we have an El Niño next year or the year after it could be that soon.

Based on those same trends, without any additional feedback from the blackwater event of a warming ice free ocean, naively projecting the ice volume declines forward, the Arctic will be ice free about 2053, plus or minus a couple of years. With even a small nudge of positive feedback that is 2050.

But let's not be naive shall we? The black water event (ice free periods, expanding each year) will have profound impacts on the energy storage in the ocean and the delay in succeeding years refreeze. That may pull forward the first ice free Arctic winter to circa 2035.

But then too, as the ocean over the Arctic plain warms, more methane clathrate will undoubtedly 'break' releasing yet more methane. Already we have massive streams of methane being released. When those are rapid enough. The decline in ocean density in the region above the clathrate will fall due to the increasing gas content in the water. At some point, that crosses a threshold. The decreased pressure on the sea floor then leads to a runaway methane release over some region of unknown size that then completely releases its clathrates as gas in a giant 'boil'.

We have seen this happen in the Gulf of Mexico from oil drilling, and from subsea slides. The areal extent of these is limited there. They may not be so limited on the Arctic plain. Gigatons of methane may release all at once over a very short period.

In the gulf, these 'boiling' events are quite likely the cause of ships sinking, planes lost, ... colloquially called the Bermuda Triangle.

Whatever the case, even without added methane releases, the black water event will pull forward the first ice free Arctic winter date by perhaps 5-10 years (my guess, and only a guess). That would mean circa 2043-2048. It takes very little added positive feedback to pull that forward further to 2035.

And with the added winter heat, tundra fires in Siberia, rotting of the tundra, collapse of tundra, methane belching from the Yamal peninsula, or a dozen others each of which easily cause that, 2035 is not unreasonable.

What is very certain is that it will occur far before 2,100 and under no possible circumstance in centuries.

We are very close.... very close indeed.

It is very likely that all of us on ASIF will live to see the first ice free Arctic September. And it is even likely that most of us on ASIF will live long enough to see a fully ice free Arctic - barring of course that we do not get killed by the various wars, plagues, famines, droughts, deluges, fires, civil strife, and other calamities that come with such enormous changes in the operation of our biosphere.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: binntho on August 07, 2018, 08:32:20 AM
I can explain Green Sahara!

The bulge of warm SSTAs that enters the NATL during periods of warming shunts Greenland airmasses into Quebec instead of allowing more general movement.

A major claim  - any evidence?

This results in the reglaciation of Quebec, and a severely intensified NW NATL cold pool, inklings of both of which we have seen develop this year.

If the cold air above Greenland were to be "shunted" eastwards it would warm up considerably, and besides it would be bone-dry. So I don't really see any glaciation being caused by this. The cold pool south of Greenland is indeed colder, but there are no "inklings" of reglaciation of Quebec!


Subsequently the Greenland-Quebec modified airmasses drift across the NATL before encountering the warm pool NW of Europe,whereby they fall into Iberia and Northwest Africa, resulting in much more humid and substantially cooler conditions, both of which we have also seen evolve this year.

Well, there have been unusually warm conditions in Iberia and NW Africa this year, with Algiers reaching an all-time temperature maximum for Africa, and Iberia being literally baked these last weeks. So I'm not seeing any "substantially cooler conditions" evolving this year. It did rain a bit in July, but the draught indicator for August shows rainfall well under par.

This also yields increased heat transport northward across the Eastern Sahara, at least for the moment, resulting in increasingly scorching temperatures for much of Europe and Eastern Africa, until reglaciation accelerates in Quebec to the point where the NE NATL warm bubble is resolved and glaciation commences in Europe as well.

Well, having read this far, I suddenly realize that you are only joking! Or maybe not ...

I suspect increased seasonal snowfall across the Atlas Mountains due to ^^^ is also to blame on a local level, as this allows additional airmass modification / humidity / cooling across adjacent and downstream regions of the Sahara.

So all this has already started? But all your previous indicators do not really hold up, and even though the Atlas mountains did get unusual amounts of snow this last winter there is no reason to think that your line of reasoning is valid.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Wherestheice on August 07, 2018, 08:33:10 AM
yeah I agree Sam, looking at Extent alone is kinda like saying looking at the ground and saying the earth is flat. There's a lot more to it than just extent. Extent is a good factor though for yearly observations.

https://14adebb0-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/grf/piomas-trnd2.png?attachauth=ANoY7coDmauRMMTrzNKUcDjZuMylbUy7ygjESNJyflpVbNdLCf1g_BFKhkT5A5uiRKxordyi460gD-Y3z42NAwjCpTLfaggyejemZuD4sxTt3eS5rRd5dgzERekBU3VPQabV0H8kcPgZQICPYuiRW075ZFQ0NIm-yf-1I9BgFJtiFkTTtDFOMRN0e2Xzz5Ii-0bPhPSq9TSodxlmUKn7EhwQsowDWKSPqAsLXmd7mYPOmOAmjM5mzqy5NvfN78WF58cN4O7bEtDc&attredirects=1
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: binntho on August 07, 2018, 08:41:26 AM
BBR, saw your maps of temperatures in Iberia and NW Africa for June and July. Well, the temperatures there vary quite a lot from month to month as can be seen here (https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/).

Haven't you heard about the difference between climate and weather?
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on August 07, 2018, 08:57:45 AM
Ice free in winter is not going to happen in the next few centuries.


Ice free in winter already began happening in 1900.

My statement is probably going to end up being closer to reality than Michael's.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Stephan on August 07, 2018, 09:21:31 AM
Ice free in winter is not going to happen in the next few centuries.
If you extrapolate the data from 1979-2018 (which is, of course, quite speculative) to a zero extent and volume you will see the extent going to zero much later than the volume, independent whether you do a linear or a log evaluation. The latter almost always delivers you earlier dates which shows that the decay of ASI is not really linear. In this evaluation there is only one value after 2100 (April volume, linearly extrapolated)!
See attached table.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on August 07, 2018, 09:31:10 AM
Maybe there will be negative volume, yet still quite a bit of extent. I hadn't considered it previously, but I'm warming to the idea.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: sark on August 07, 2018, 08:44:41 PM
...
But then too, as the ocean over the Arctic plain warms, more methane clathrate will undoubtedly 'break' releasing yet more methane. Already we have massive streams of methane being released. When those are rapid enough. The decline in ocean density in the region above the clathrate will fall due to the increasing gas content in the water. At some point, that crosses a threshold. The decreased pressure on the sea floor then leads to a runaway methane release over some region of unknown size that then completely releases its clathrates as gas in a giant 'boil'.
...

Are you able to add a little support a risk of methane clathrate destablization in the near term?  I'll note that in your comment you note that even without destabilization of clathrates, the topic of ice free arctic during winter is still a looming impact this century.  I agree.

However, I think the ice free arctic will emerge from a breakdown in the atmospheric circulation setup of a 3 cell system, setting up a more and more equable climate distribution, long before heat in the deep ocean will destabilize methane clathrates.

Because of that depth and burial of methane clathrates, and because since the clathrate gun hypothesis a number of investigators have talked down the risk (Richard Alley comes to mind), it seems to diminish some of the risk of methane releases from clathrates in this century.  There's a hell of a lot of heating required to melt permafrost, and there's a hell of a lot of time required to deliver heat to the deep ocean.

Any research or background you can point me toward on these subjects would be very constructive.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Dharma Rupa on August 07, 2018, 10:21:49 PM
However, I think the ice free arctic will emerge from a breakdown in the atmospheric circulation setup of a 3 cell system, setting up a more and more equable climate distribution, long before heat in the deep ocean will destabilize methane clathrates.

The cause-effect relationship between the collapse of the polar cell and the encroachment of the Atlantic on the Arctic is complex and hard to figure out, but I'm inclined to think that they cause each other.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: gerontocrat on August 07, 2018, 11:24:47 PM

Are you able to add a little support a risk of methane clathrate destablization in the near term?  I'll note that in your comment you note that even without destabilization of clathrates, the topic of ice free arctic during winter is still a looming impact this century.  I agree.

Because of that depth and burial of methane clathrates, and because since the clathrate gun hypothesis a number of investigators have talked down the risk (Richard Alley comes to mind), it seems to diminish some of the risk of methane releases from clathrates in this century.  There's a hell of a lot of heating required to melt permafrost, and there's a hell of a lot of time required to deliver heat to the deep ocean.

Any research or background you can point me toward on these subjects would be very constructive.

Suggest you go to the methane thread in the permafrost topic. Lots of links to papers.

 the deep ocean  The Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf is huge and large parts at an average depth of less than 10 metres, with vast methane deposits in the clathrates and under that frozen lid vast amounts of highly organic soil and free methane under pressure.

Use the search facility in this forum "The Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf " or simply search for "ESAS".

(And loads and loads more CO2 / methane trapped in the tundra. )

Bathymetry map attached (click to see full size)
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Michael Hauber on August 07, 2018, 11:57:44 PM
Ice free in winter is not going to happen in the next few centuries.


Ice free in winter already began happening in 1900.

My statement is probably going to end up being closer to reality than Michael's.

Based on what evidence?  Even the models that overestimate current ice loss do not get below 10m sq km of ice in winter by the end of this century.  I'd trust models over extrapolating a trend.  And extrapolating extent over extrapolating volume.  It is not how thick the ice is that determines ice free winter - it is the extent of ocean that is cold enough in the coldest part of winter to support the formation of ice.  Even extrapolating volume gives us another century until ice free winter.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: sark on August 08, 2018, 12:27:42 AM
Ice free in winter is not going to happen in the next few centuries.


Ice free in winter already began happening in 1900.

My statement is probably going to end up being closer to reality than Michael's.

Based on what evidence?  Even the models that overestimate current ice loss do not get below 10m sq km of ice in winter by the end of this century.  I'd trust models over extrapolating a trend.  And extrapolating extent over extrapolating volume.  It is not how thick the ice is that determines ice free winter - it is the extent of ocean that is cold enough in the coldest part of winter to support the formation of ice.  Even extrapolating volume gives us another century until ice free winter.

How does the model maintain the cold halocline layer despite the lack of sea ice cover?

You're talking about a model of arctic sea ice decline, not a model of a blue ocean event.  We have no clue what that looks like, but the hypotheses floating around suggest papers in the next couple of years that begin to test the subject.  Models of arctic sea ice disappearance may be able to be sourced in such discussions right about the time it's happening right in front of our eyes.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on August 08, 2018, 02:25:19 AM
Ice free in winter is not going to happen in the next few centuries.


Ice free in winter already began happening in 1900.

My statement is probably going to end up being closer to reality than Michael's.

Based on what evidence?  Even the models that overestimate current ice loss do not get below 10m sq km of ice in winter by the end of this century.  I'd trust models over extrapolating a trend.  And extrapolating extent over extrapolating volume.  It is not how thick the ice is that determines ice free winter - it is the extent of ocean that is cold enough in the coldest part of winter to support the formation of ice.  Even extrapolating volume gives us another century until ice free winter.

Even volume? Even volume? You are aware the world does occur in 3D, right? How could you prefer extent more than volume? There is a place for it, but the top indicator has to be volume...cuz it is, like,  the actual amount. Takes a certain amount of energy to melt a certain volume of ice. You simply can't say that about extent. Extent could be historically normal and we could be a week away from no ice (cuz it could all be an few inches thick). If volume was historically normal, there isn't a problem.

Linearly extrapolating "winter" (April) maximum volume would have the trend line hitting zero in about 2100. September trend would hit zero about 2035. It's not a huge mental leap to figure that once there is no ice to melt, that warming would go into the ocean and start subtracting from the winter maximum. So that would bring winter BOE to about 2070.

But all of that is if there is no lag in the climate system. Which is madness. And it also assumes that the GHGs wont continue to increase. Which is madness.

Speaking of madness...saying "well this is what is going to happen cuz a  few models say so..." is effectively like pontificating about what would happen in a zombie outbreak cuz thats what happened in Fortnite or Call of Duty waves. How good do you believe the models are? Can any models tell me what the weather will be like in a month?
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Michael Hauber on August 08, 2018, 11:00:30 AM

How does the model maintain the cold halocline layer despite the lack of sea ice cover?

You're talking about a model of arctic sea ice decline, not a model of a blue ocean event.  We have no clue what that looks like, but the hypotheses floating around suggest papers in the next couple of years that begin to test the subject.  Models of arctic sea ice disappearance may be able to be sourced in such discussions right about the time it's happening right in front of our eyes.

I'm sure the model programmed by Arctic experts does a better job of predicting the influence of the cold halocline on sea ice than the guesses of members of this forum.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Michael Hauber on August 08, 2018, 11:13:33 AM


Even volume? Even volume? You are aware the world does occur in 3D, right? How could you prefer extent more than volume?

I think I explained it just fine in my last post.  Is there some part of it you didn't understand.

There is a place for it, but the top indicator has to be volume...cuz it is, like,  the actual amount. Takes a certain amount of energy to melt a certain volume of ice.

Winter maximum isn't about melting ice, it is about conditions being cold enough for sea water to freeeze.

Speaking of madness...saying "well this is what is going to happen cuz a  few models say so..." is effectively like pontificating about what would happen in a zombie outbreak cuz thats what happened in Fortnite or Call of Duty waves. How good do you believe the models are? Can any models tell me what the weather will be like in a month?

Climate deniers don't like what the models say so run exactly the same argument.  Seems you don't like what the models are saying and so are running exactly the same argument.  This is a science based forum and not Watts Up with That.  The models are certainly imperfect, but whats a better method for predicting the future? 
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: gerontocrat on August 08, 2018, 01:44:19 PM
The models are certainly imperfect, but whats a better method for predicting the future?

All models have parameters buried inside them. I should know, I've made a few fairly complex ones in my time.

I used to display the important parameters (and the assumed values) - the "drivers" - in the front of the model together with the changes in results caused by changing the parameters. This helped me to find out the sensitivity of the output from changes in the parameters, and so my audience could see what parameters mattered.

Scientists tend to bury all this inside a mass of code. So when I look at what the IPCC and conventional wisdom is saying, I try to figure out what parameters and assumptions they are using to drive their models.

An example is PIOMAS trends from The Polar Science Center. They use a linear regression to find the average yearly volume loss (280 km3).  The decadal averages say volume loss is on an accelerating trend.

Should I, as a professional analyst, base my opinion as to the future  on the linear trend?

Another example is methane emissions. On the methane thread a few months ago there was a long discussion on whether a massive increase in methane emissions is possible or even likely from places such as the EAAS and the tundra. This included access to papers by climate scientists suggesting that this is happening to some extent now (and from elsewhere such as gas wells and pipelines).

But the NOAA data for their Greenhouse Gas Index has methane and other non CO2 gases emissions as almost flat over many years, and the CO2e monitoring stations they have are few and far between.

I could go on and on - the change in boreal and Tropical forests from carbon sinks to carbon emitters.

This is not being picked up sufficiently by the established system of the IPCC, which due to its stately progress is always behind the curve.

It seems to me that, as you say, this is a science based forum, healthy scepticism (as in the proper meaning of the word) is a necessary part of these discussions. Mind you, hyperbole based on an absence of fact and reason, should also be discarded.

So I repeat. Should I, as a professional analyst, base my opinion as to the future on the models or should I take them as the base and do some pluses and minuses from the data flooding in from all sides ?

Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Dharma Rupa on August 08, 2018, 02:46:47 PM
Climate deniers don't like what the models say so run exactly the same argument.  Seems you don't like what the models are saying and so are running exactly the same argument.  This is a science based forum and not Watts Up with That.  The models are certainly imperfect, but whats a better method for predicting the future?

Paleontology.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: P-maker on August 08, 2018, 05:36:05 PM
Gerontocrat
I really like your message. It is spot om.

Palaeontology is not the answer.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Sam on August 08, 2018, 05:50:03 PM
Paleocivisicide would be more useful (though wholly inadequate) - the study of how and why ancient civilizations died. 
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on August 08, 2018, 06:20:37 PM

Michael does make a good point.

The halocline is formed during the melt/freeze cycle, and by freshwater input from the Arctic Rivers.

We can do a very simply thought experiment. Lets assume that we have a simply thermodynamic model. That the heat is building up in the earth constantly. That energy is distributed evenly, and that the additional heat energy to melt the ice reflected in PIOMASS volume reductions continues to build up in the Arctic and prevents ice formation. Lets assume that trend is linear.

PIOMASS winter volume is around 20000 cubic Km. It's reducing at 3100 cubic Km per decade. That gives us about 70 years before the Arctic is ice free in winter.

Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: jdallen on August 08, 2018, 06:26:11 PM
Gerontocrat
I really like your message. It is spot om.

Palaeontology is not the answer.
Paleontology and the models reinforce one another. Both together in context are more skillful than either alone.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Stephan on August 08, 2018, 08:23:38 PM
...
PIOMASS winter volume is around 20000 cubic Km. It's reducing at 3100 cubic Km per decade. That gives us about 70 years before the Arctic is ice free in winter.
...and if you assume that the trend is not linear but slightly exponential you reach that ice-free state 6-8 years earlier (see the table I posted a couple of days ago) and thus BEFORE 2100.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: magnamentis on August 08, 2018, 08:38:41 PM
...
PIOMASS winter volume is around 20000 cubic Km. It's reducing at 3100 cubic Km per decade. That gives us about 70 years before the Arctic is ice free in winter.
...and if you assume that the trend is not linear but slightly exponential you reach that ice-free state 6-8 years earlier (see the table I posted a couple of days ago) and thus BEFORE 2100.

and i expect a logarithmic development due to the location of the ever smaller amount of remaining ice where it will be more difficult to melt not easier, hence a slow down, not an acceleration is what i see coming, i for one probably won't see which is true ;)
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on August 08, 2018, 08:46:10 PM

I'm sure the model programmed by Arctic experts does a better job of predicting the influence of the cold halocline on sea ice than the guesses of members of this forum.


I'm not saying modeling is a pointless endeavor ( look at Adriana Lima for example ;) ). But they seem to systemically conservative.  They have been around for long enough that we can check their veracity. Every model I know of considered 2007 and 2012 arctic ice extents outside the bounds of possibility. Same for the global sea ice extent in 2016 and 2017. Same for temperature in 2014, 2015, 2016. So if the models always show things as more stable than reality, it should follow that when you look at model predictions you go "hey, reality is probably a lot less stable than these models are prediction" and not "hey, this model says the system is stable, so I believe it."

If there are model prediction from this millennium, which have turned out to show climate systems as less stable than they have proven to be, please share them with me.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: gerontocrat on August 08, 2018, 09:01:38 PM

Lets assume that trend is linear.


But perhaps let us not ?
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Dharma Rupa on August 08, 2018, 09:29:37 PM
Gerontocrat
I really like your message. It is spot om.

Palaeontology is not the answer.
Paleontology and the models reinforce one another. Both together in context are more skillful than either alone.

The models all want continuous change, the evidence is that change has been discontinuous.  Until you offer a model that both seems to handle Historical data and the sudden changes which seem to have happened I am disinterested in them -- and I only really ask that they have some demonstrated skill (which they do not).   But absent predictions of sudden changes, I think the models can be completely ignored.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: jai mitchell on August 08, 2018, 10:05:44 PM
2065
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Michael Hauber on August 08, 2018, 10:22:58 PM
How many centuries does paleontology tell us it took to go ice free last time the earth was this warm and warming at this rate?

How warm was it last time paleontology told us it was ice free in winter?  I could look it up myself, but maybe those who want to appeal to paleontology should do the work?  Also +x degrees at equilibrium will be different from +x degrees while rapidly warming.  During rapid warming the land warms significantly faster than the ocean surface, and the ocean surface warms faster than the subsurface.  Both will make a big difference as to whether the ocean can resist several months of winter darkness/cold without freezing.  Arctic ocean surface might be an exception, but moreso in summer.  Outside Arctic is still going to warm slower than land and make a difference to how much heat is brought in by currents.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Dharma Rupa on August 08, 2018, 10:26:45 PM
How many centuries does paleontology tell us it took to go ice free last time the earth was this warm and warming at this rate?

Seems to me there have been a number of papers indicating sea level changes in the tens of meters in less than a decade.  If you think sea level can rise 30 feet and the Arctic still be ice covered.....
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: deconstruct on August 08, 2018, 10:40:32 PM
Linearly extrapolating "winter" (April) maximum volume would have the trend line hitting zero in about 2100. September trend would hit zero about 2035. It's not a huge mental leap to figure that once there is no ice to melt, that warming would go into the ocean and start subtracting from the winter maximum. So that would bring winter BOE to about 2070.
Aehm.. you are aware that it doesn't work like that?
The current winter ice loss is nearly completely in the peripheral areas, not in the CAB. And that is the easy to melt (or not-to-regrow) ice, because it is right on the edge, where temperatures are so high, that there already was the border between ice-free and ice-covered in winter.

The central CAB is about 20°C *colder* than that, so there is no way, that there will not be ice growth in the winter, even in 2100 or 2200. The only possibility that this will happen is, if there happens something extraordinary, but that is naturally not infered from linear extrapolation (or any sort of extrapolation).

And as long as temperatures are cold enough - ice will form. There will be half a year no sun and that won't change, no matter what. Even in mid-latidudes lakes freeze in winter or seas like the Baltic still grow a (small) ice cover. And it is *much much* warmer there than at the North Pole.

So IMO it is completely unrealistic to expect that there will be no ice growth in winter in the central Artic. And off course Volume can be much, much lower than today, and still there will be like 3-4 million square km of winter sea ice. If you have now a 1m thick layer of ice and in 2100 it will only grow to 10 cm thickness in winter, it will be only 10% of the volumen, despite having still a considerably large extent.

So no, for the question if there will be ice growth in winter  in the Arctic, volume is not the best metric.


Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: deconstruct on August 08, 2018, 10:51:26 PM
Seems to me there have been a number of papers indicating sea level changes in the tens of meters in less than a decade.  If you think sea level can rise 30 feet and the Arctic still be ice covered.....
Please, name one paper that claims that in a respected journal!

And of course not counting events like a big asteroid hitting Antarctica which instantly melts most of it, but climatic events.

The total *possible* sea level rise (i.e. all of Greenland and Antarctica melts) holds around 65
meters of sea level. To melt "tens of meters in less than a decade", would mean that you would melt *all* of Antarctica and Greenland in just 10 years.

That is totally unplausible and just nuts...

I can only repeat myself... The claims in this forum get crazier and crazier...
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on August 08, 2018, 11:00:21 PM

Yes, of course, if it remains at -20°C and that the AML survives.

There is evidence that you start to get 1000m convection cells forming when the AML breaks down, say because of the lack of summer ice, and that would certainly cause enough heat to be transported to the cloudy dark rainy Arctic to keep it ice free.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-017-3849-9

Reduce the FDD days enough, add enough heat in the atmosphere and the ocean and add convection to the top 1000m of the Arctic? Perhaps that would be enough heat to keep it ice free during the long cold Arctic night. 
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Dharma Rupa on August 08, 2018, 11:06:09 PM

Yes, of course, if it remains at -20°C and that the AML survives.

There is evidence that you start to get 1000m convection cells forming when the AML breaks down, say because of the lack of summer ice, and that would certainly cause enough heat to be transported to the cloudy dark rainy Arctic to keep it ice free.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-017-3849-9

Reduce the FDD days enough, add enough heat in the atmosphere and the ocean and add convection to the top 1000m of the Arctic? Perhaps that would be enough heat to keep it ice free during the long cold Arctic night.

You only need enough convection to well mix the top 100M of the ocean.  There is already plenty of heat there.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on August 09, 2018, 12:15:51 AM

The central CAB is about 20°C *colder* than that, so there is no way, that there will not be ice growth in the winter, even in 2100 or 2200. The only possibility that this will happen is, if there happens something extraordinary, but that is naturally not infered from linear extrapolation (or any sort of extrapolation).

If you expect everything to stay ordinary for the next 200 years, um why? Are you aware that our current GHG levels are extraordinary and it is causing extraordinary warming but its just getting started.  The last time GHG levels were this high, the arctic was ice free. So relative these GHG levels, it would actually be pretty ordinary for the arctic to be ice free.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: josh-j on August 09, 2018, 12:38:25 AM
Things won't stay ordinary. But that doesnt mean things will change in the way you expect either. We all know the trends but this is a complex system. I'm sure something dramatic could happen that gives us a winter BOE but that doesnt mean it will happen any time soon. It might be reasonable to predict it as a possibility but not assume it is near-certain to happen within a few decades.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Michael Hauber on August 09, 2018, 01:07:01 AM

Yes, of course, if it remains at -20°C and that the AML survives.

There is evidence that you start to get 1000m convection cells forming when the AML breaks down, say because of the lack of summer ice, and that would certainly cause enough heat to be transported to the cloudy dark rainy Arctic to keep it ice free.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-017-3849-9

Reduce the FDD days enough, add enough heat in the atmosphere and the ocean and add convection to the top 1000m of the Arctic? Perhaps that would be enough heat to keep it ice free during the long cold Arctic night. 

How long will that take?.  Also consider shallow shelves on Laptev  Convection and warm currents might maintain ice free at north pole right through winter, but Laptev being shallow and protected from warm currents, and adjacent to cold land mass will take longer.  Consider current situation in Antarctica and north Pacific.  What is AML?  Something to do with stratification of Arctic?  Antarctica and North Pacific don't have this and manage to get ice in winter.  Just needs to be cold enough, so it depends on how long it stays cold enough.  Judging by model projections I'd say best guess is it will stay cold enough for centuries.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: magnamentis on August 09, 2018, 01:34:07 AM
How many centuries does paleontology tell us it took to go ice free last time the earth was this warm and warming at this rate?

Seems to me there have been a number of papers indicating sea level changes in the tens of meters in less than a decade.  If you think sea level can rise 30 feet and the Arctic still be ice covered.....

arctic sea ice has no impact on sea-level talking about that in this thread (arctic ocean)
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 09, 2018, 04:53:04 AM

Lets assume that trend is linear.


But perhaps let us not ?

None of the trends related to AGW are linear. I would welcome someone posting one that is so that I can stand corrected.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 09, 2018, 04:56:48 AM
How many centuries does paleontology tell us it took to go ice free last time the earth was this warm and warming at this rate?

Seems to me there have been a number of papers indicating sea level changes in the tens of meters in less than a decade.  If you think sea level can rise 30 feet and the Arctic still be ice covered.....

An ice free Arctic Ocean by itself has no impact on sea level rise and what papers are predicting sea level rise of tens of meters in less than a decade?

I am having a hard time following this conversation. It's as if everyone is talking past the others.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on August 09, 2018, 05:27:34 AM
How many centuries does paleontology tell us it took to go ice free last time the earth was this warm and warming at this rate?

Seems to me there have been a number of papers indicating sea level changes in the tens of meters in less than a decade.  If you think sea level can rise 30 feet and the Arctic still be ice covered.....

An ice free Arctic Ocean by itself has no impact on sea level rise and what papers are predicting sea level rise of tens of meters in less than a decade?

I am having a hard time following this conversation. It's as if everyone is talking past the others.

Ice free arctic wouldn't directly have an effect on sea level, but greenland melt would probably go into overdrive. Maybe there would be more snow too but melt would probably overwhelm a snow increase.

I agree, we are all talking past each other. I think it speaks to the complexity of the issue. The weight each person puts on different factors.  There really is no way to definitively prove the impact of any given component. Uncharted territory.  This is why I find proclamations that certain things WILL BE a certain way decades or centuries in the future quite annoying.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: El Cid on August 09, 2018, 08:52:07 AM
"This is why I find proclamations that certain things WILL BE a certain way decades or centuries in the future quite annoying."

Couldn't agree more!
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: kynde on August 09, 2018, 11:45:03 AM
Judging by model projections I'd say best guess is it will stay cold enough for centuries.

You can't really use contemporary models which are used to model present situation to make multi century projections. The temperature is heavily coupled to the assumption of ice presence, and that cannot be used to predict continued ice presence without circular reasoning. The odds of game changing forcings to manifest this century are simply too much.

It was already stated how models, while currently exhibiting our best scientific knowledge of arctic climate, are not tuned for the changes that are in the pipeline which are largely unknown. What seasonally ice free arctic and narrowing temperature difference will do to the northern hemisphere climate is largely unknown. And _that_ is happening well within century scale.

Now, just to be clear. I'm not saying one way or another about how cold it will stay up north in the years to come,  I'm just strongly opposed to using current models to project "centuries" given that we can't really claim to even know what's going to happen with the seasonally ice free arctic in the decades after. And as a result, how could the models do any better?

Your qualitative arguments about Laptev shallowness etc make a better argument.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Michael Hauber on August 09, 2018, 12:21:54 PM

I'm just strongly opposed to using current models to project "centuries" given that we can't really claim to even know what's going to happen with the seasonally ice free arctic in the decades after. And as a result, how could the models do any better?

Multi-century model projections are obviously problematic.  Is there a better alternative?  (I don't think so)  Or do we just avoid talking about the issue altogether?
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Dharma Rupa on August 09, 2018, 01:49:05 PM
...Also consider shallow shelves on Laptev  Convection and warm currents might maintain ice free at north pole right through winter, but Laptev being shallow and protected from warm currents, and adjacent to cold land mass will take longer...

Please see the first post in this thread, as the question was only about the Central Arctic Basin.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Dharma Rupa on August 09, 2018, 02:22:28 PM
How many centuries does paleontology tell us it took to go ice free last time the earth was this warm and warming at this rate?

Seems to me there have been a number of papers indicating sea level changes in the tens of meters in less than a decade.  If you think sea level can rise 30 feet and the Arctic still be ice covered.....

An ice free Arctic Ocean by itself has no impact on sea level rise and what papers are predicting sea level rise of tens of meters in less than a decade?

I am having a hard time following this conversation. It's as if everyone is talking past the others.

e.g.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/oceans-can-rise-in-sudden-bursts/
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 09, 2018, 06:53:23 PM

Seems to me there have been a number of papers indicating sea level changes in the tens of meters in less than a decade.  If you think sea level can rise 30 feet and the Arctic still be ice covered.....
An ice free Arctic Ocean by itself has no impact on sea level rise and what papers are predicting sea level rise of tens of meters in less than a decade? …
e.g.  https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/oceans-can-rise-in-sudden-bursts/
From that SA article:
Quote
Scientists already knew this was a time marked by significant sea-level rise. But the existence of the terraces suggests, for the first time, that the process was not gradual, but rather occurred in sharp, sudden bursts. In fact, the terraces suggest several meters of sea-level rise may have occurred on the scale of just decades during this time.
That is, meters per decades, not 10s of meters per decade.  That's about half an order of magnitude difference on each side of the 'per', making the original ascertain an exaggeration by about a factor of 10.   (Yes, this is just one publication, but I think others will duplicate this 'fastest SLR' rate, outside of breached 'dams' - e.g., Mediterranean & Black Sea.)

But this is OT as to the CAB surface going 'black' in the winter due to climate change.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Dharma Rupa on August 09, 2018, 07:05:31 PM
But this is OT as to the CAB surface going 'black' in the winter due to climate change.

True, but my point is that people are proclaiming Truth when it isn't even yet clear they are working with a viable Theory.

I'd like to hear suggested mechanisms, not obeyance to the Great Modelling Gods.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Michael Hauber on August 09, 2018, 10:47:07 PM
But this is OT as to the CAB surface going 'black' in the winter due to climate change.

True, but my point is that people are proclaiming Truth when it isn't even yet clear they are working with a viable Theory.

I'd like to hear suggested mechanisms, not obeyance to the Great Modelling Gods.

Strawman.  Models are not truth, no one has claimed that they are.

I'd say anyone who think that Arctic ice can disappear this century during winter lacks a viable theory and the challenge is to come up with a better method than the models of predicting future sea ice conditions.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Dharma Rupa on August 09, 2018, 11:41:00 PM
But this is OT as to the CAB surface going 'black' in the winter due to climate change.

True, but my point is that people are proclaiming Truth when it isn't even yet clear they are working with a viable Theory.

I'd like to hear suggested mechanisms, not obeyance to the Great Modelling Gods.

Strawman.  Models are not truth, no one has claimed that they are.

I'd say anyone who think that Arctic ice can disappear this century during winter lacks a viable theory and the challenge is to come up with a better method than the models of predicting future sea ice conditions.

I don't know when the CAB will be ice-free in Winter.  I just think it will happen suddenly, and at about the same time it is ice-free in Summer.  The areas close to the continents are going to probably take longer.

I do think that any claim to knowing when is pure bullshit.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 10, 2018, 12:13:15 AM
This thread had promise. It has devolved into a distraction. Carry on.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: magnamentis on August 10, 2018, 12:57:04 AM
But this is OT as to the CAB surface going 'black' in the winter due to climate change.

True, but my point is that people are proclaiming Truth when it isn't even yet clear they are working with a viable Theory.

I'd like to hear suggested mechanisms, not obeyance to the Great Modelling Gods.

Strawman.  Models are not truth, no one has claimed that they are.

I'd say anyone who think that Arctic ice can disappear this century during winter lacks a viable theory and the challenge is to come up with a better method than the models of predicting future sea ice conditions.

I don't know when the CAB will be ice-free in Winter.  I just think it will happen suddenly, and at about the same time it is ice-free in Summer.  The areas close to the continents are going to probably take longer.

I do think that any claim to knowing when is pure bullshit.

to have an opinion based on an educated guess is sometimes less "BS" as you name things than bringing up utterly non-sensual stupid ideas, camouflage it with "i don't know but i think" and then discredit anyone else who has a valid point but can't provide proof because things lay so far in the future.

you're posts are very close to be trollish IMO and sooner or later others will stumble upon and recognize it.

IMO you are the one with a dedicated bias that quite often lacks any common sense and react very aggressively when others show traces of annoyance about it and/or surprise as to how someone can genuinely believe that the arctic ocean or the CAB will once of a sudden become ice-free in winter soon. we're not even close to being ice-free in summer.

after all this planet's poles definitely look away from the sun in winter and no-one can tell me that we shall "suddenly" and "soon" see a 20-30C plus in winter across the board and permanently. not even places in mid latitudes that after all some claim to release sufficient heat into the arctic, sufficient to remain ice-free during winter, are currently warm enough for such events.

and i'm fully aware that the gulf-stream keeps parts of the arctic ice-free in winter but this is neither
the CAB yet nor can one warm inflow keep it's heat across the entire arctic any time soon. it will cool down as it does now and eventually be neighboured by colder regions. that will freeze, no matter which parts won't freeze in a few decades.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: oren on August 10, 2018, 02:39:55 AM
I don't know when the CAB will be ice-free in Winter.  I just think it will happen suddenly, and at about the same time it is ice-free in Summer.  The areas close to the continents are going to probably take longer.

I do think that any claim to knowing when is pure bullshit.
I agree with your first statement, but most certainly don't agree with the second. Every arctic location that has transitioned from perennial ice cover to being seasonally ice free has followed a pattern - from the first "BOE" it takes a decade or more to achieve a reliable annual BOE, then over time the ice-free season grows longer - melt-out arrives earlier and refreeze arrives later. This process takes time as well. And only parts of locations that are fed by a warm neighboring ocean such as the Barents (including parts of adjacent CAB) and the Bering are transitioning to a perennial ice-free state. These processes take decades. So I can't know when the CAB becomes ice-free in winter, but I can most certainly know that it will not happen when it first becomes ice-free in summer, but at least several decades after that event, most probably several centuries due to the size of the CAB and the shortness of the current melting season in the CAB compared to the freezing season.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Rod on August 10, 2018, 03:51:53 AM


you're posts are very close to be trollish IMO and sooner or later others will stumble upon and recognize it.

There is a troll in this thread, but you called out the wrong person.  The real troll is much more savvy than DanielB ever was, and he is very good at getting people to fight over nonsense.   

The real shame in this is that long time experts are not posting this year, presumably because of all the nonsense, and this year is an extremely interesting season of melting. 

The Atlantic front has moved farther north, and stayed there for longer, than at anytime ever in the satellite record.   The Beaufort gyre has clearly slowed, and possibly reversed, which might mark the first reversal since before the 2007 crash. 

These are very important issues that could mark a profound change in the ocean currents that could lead at sometime in the future to an ice free CAB. 

When, or if, that might happen is anyone's guess.   However, as A-Team remarked earlier this melt season, the time of peak solar activity does not overlap well with the time of minimum ice.   

Therefore, it is safe to say that an ice free arctic would have to be caused by more than just sunshine.   If the lower amounts of ice that we are seeing now allow warmer and more salty water to move deeper into the CAB, that could be a potential mechanism. 

This thread is based upon speculation, and that is what we are all doing.  No one knows when, or even if, the CAB will become ice free in winter.   

But it is still an interesting topic to discuss.   Just ignore the trolls, and respond to the posts that you think have merit.   

If people stop attacking each other so much, it might prompt other people who have valuable things to say to get involved in the discussion.   
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Bruce Steele on August 10, 2018, 04:50:47 AM
Rod, "The Beaufort gyre has clearly slowed, and possibly reversed, which might mark the first reversal since before the 2007 crash."
 Could you give me some info on this claim? I watch the ITP Whoi data and 108 and it's path around the Beaufort seems sluggish but a reversal , a long one , would be something I haven't seen .
Would be important I agree if it were to happen.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Rod on August 10, 2018, 06:19:48 AM
Rod, "The Beaufort gyre has clearly slowed, and possibly reversed, which might mark the first reversal since before the 2007 crash."
 Could you give me some info on this claim? I watch the ITP Whoi data and 108 and it's path around the Beaufort seems sluggish but a reversal , a long one , would be something I haven't seen .
Would be important I agree if it were to happen.

I'm not claiming it has reversed.  Only that it might have.  The drift pattern of ITP108 is consistent with a reversal.   The ice it is attached to ignored the typical clockwise rotation.  It has now clearly stalled, so there is not much more we can learn from it.

Unicorn and A-Team have posted several images this melt season that show the ice flows are moving in a direction inconsistent with the typical gyre current.  I consider that to be the most compelling evidence. 

Hyperion and FishOutofWater also showed several model outputs that indicated the gyre currents had were circulating fresh water down through the CAA.  FOW commented on this most recently about a week ago. 

A close inspection of the Parry Channel over the last month (when it's not cloudy which is rare) indicates the ice is piling up in a way that would be consistent with ice being forced downward and opposite of the typical clockwise gyre pattern. 

Finally, the area in the CAB that would normally be full of ice from a typical clockwise gyre is streatched thin and looks as if it might be ice free by the end of the melt season. 

The experts have said that the gyre is due for a reversal when persistent low pressure systems settle into the Beaufort.  The Beaufort has certainly had persistent lows this summer. 

This is all circumstantial evidence.  That is why I said that at a minimum the gyre has slowed, and possibly reversed.

As I'm sure you know, we are many years past the predicted reversal.  We will just need to wait now until the experts chime in and tell us what they think has really happened.




Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: bbr2314 on August 10, 2018, 06:29:35 AM
Most recent available month or so of SLP anomalies verifying ^

Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: deconstruct on August 10, 2018, 02:37:19 PM
e.g.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/oceans-can-rise-in-sudden-bursts/

Aehm.. that link references a paper that claims:
"In fact, the terraces suggest several meters of sea-level rise may have occurred on the scale of just decades during this time."

That paper claims, that sea-level rose by several meters within multiple decades. So lets say several meters are 3 meters and multiple decades are 5 decades. That would be a rise of 0.06 m per year.

Your original claim however was, that sea-level rose tens of meters in less than a decade. So lets say tens of meters are 30m and less than a decade would be 8 years, so sea level would have risen with 3.75 meters per year.

That is 60 (!) times faster than what that paper says. That is a difference of nearly 2 orders of magnitude!

That supports in no way your claim, but just shows how absurd it is, when even in the transition from the last ice age the highest speed of sea level rise is 60x lower.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 10, 2018, 05:18:29 PM
Deconstruct,
Did you read my post (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2364.msg166502.html#msg166502)?  I like that you put numbers to DR's and the article's 'meters' and 'decades'.  You 'blew it', however, with the "nearly 2 orders of magnitude".  One order of magnitude (https://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/order-of-magnitude) over 3.75 is 37.5 and two orders is 375.  Where I come from, 60 is significantly closer to 37.5 than it is to 375, and, significantly, shares the same number of (greater than zero) decimal places.  (Interestingly, the absolute differences between 60 and [37.5 and 375] are over an order of magnitude different!  [22.5 and 315])
Edit: more precisely, 60 is 1.2 orders of magnitude over 3.75. [3.75 x 10^x = 60; 10^x = 16; x = log(16)]
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Dharma Rupa on August 10, 2018, 05:44:30 PM
Deconstruct,
Did you read my post (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2364.msg166502.html#msg166502)?  I like that you put numbers to DR's and the article's 'meters' and 'decades'.  You 'blew it', however, with the "nearly 2 orders of magnitude".  One order of magnitude (https://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/order-of-magnitude) over 3.75 is 37.5 and two orders is 375.  Where I come from, 60 is significantly closer to 37.5 than it is to 375, and, significantly, shares the same number of (greater than zero) decimal places.  (Interestingly, the absolute differences between 60 and [37.5 and 375] are over an order of magnitude different!  [22.5 and 315])

That's alright Tor, I just grabbed the very first article I could find on the subject.  Reality is that the guesstimates are all over the place, and I have seen papers that talked about 30 meters in less than a decade at some points in the past.  Which papers are right cannot be known, and the real point is that sudden sea level changes can happen; which tends to lend doubt about most if not all the current GCM; which do not predict the possibility of sudden change.

My real problem with some of the people who use the GCM is this:  Take two statements:

Statement 1:  Model X says Y, therefore I think Y.
Statement 2:  Model X says Y, therefore Y must be true.

Statement 1 is completely valid, and not only might help people figure out what is likely, but more importantly might help fill out the set of possibilities.

Statement 2 is pure bullshit and needs to be called out for what it is.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: gerontocrat on August 10, 2018, 07:48:52 PM
e.g.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/oceans-can-rise-in-sudden-bursts/

Aehm.. that link references a paper that claims:
"In fact, the terraces suggest several meters of sea-level rise may have occurred on the scale of just decades during this time."

That paper claims, that sea-level rose by several meters within multiple decades. So lets say several meters are 3 meters and multiple decades are 5 decades. That would be a rise of 0.06 m per year.


Those who have worked in the South Pacific know that coral reefs are very sensitive to water depth. I found the "claim" in the paper very persuasive and logical. Yet another bit of evidence to support Hansen's abrupt SLR views. Whether that supports the argument for a winter ice free Arctic I have not a clue.

However, those living in Florida, London, New York, New Orleans, Shanghai et al, may find the findings of more immediate concern.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 10, 2018, 08:11:00 PM
...
However, those living in Florida, London, New York, New Orleans, Shanghai et al, may find the findings of more immediate concern.
I live at 120 feet (sounds higher than 35 m  ::)), so I'm tempted to say, "Bring it on."  But my pension is from the State of Florida, so I say, "Please, not here, or at least, not now."
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Tetra on August 10, 2018, 10:26:09 PM
e.g.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/oceans-can-rise-in-sudden-bursts/

Aehm.. that link references a paper that claims:
"In fact, the terraces suggest several meters of sea-level rise may have occurred on the scale of just decades during this time."

That paper claims, that sea-level rose by several meters within multiple decades. So lets say several meters are 3 meters and multiple decades are 5 decades. That would be a rise of 0.06 m per year.


Those who have worked in the South Pacific know that coral reefs are very sensitive to water depth. I found the "claim" in the paper very persuasive and logical. Yet another bit of evidence to support Hansen's abrupt SLR views. Whether that supports the argument for a winter ice free Arctic I have not a clue.

However, those living in Florida, London, New York, New Orleans, Shanghai et al, may find the findings of more immediate concern.

As a Londoner, perhaps I should invest in a boat...or water wings.

On a more serious note, I think we’re gonna be reaping what we sow pretty soon in regards to SLR.

I also think the arctic will go ice free within the decade, thanks to atlantification, rate of volume and extent loss since 1979 finally catching up to the present, and etc, as well as my own gut acting up and informing me I’m right.

As that quote from Deus Ex Human revolution goes- “It’s not quite the end of the world ice, but you can see it from here”.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: deconstruct on August 10, 2018, 11:55:48 PM
You 'blew it', however, with the "nearly 2 orders of magnitude". 
One order of magnitude[/url] over 3.75 is 37.5 and two orders is 375.  Where I come from, 60 is significantly closer to 37.5 than it is to 375, and, significantly, shares the same number of (greater than zero) decimal places.
I would recommend, that you read my post again.

The cited paper speaks from a sea-level rise 0.06 m per year.
Dharma Rupas claim was a rise of 3.75 m per year.

In other words: DRs rate is 60 times the rate of the one from the paper.

One order of magnitude would be 10 times the rate.
Two orders of magnitude would be 100 times the rate.

60 times is IMHO "nearly 2 orders of magnitude", and in any case is 60 nearer to 100 than to 10, if you want it spelled out in your logic.

I have no idea where you get the idea to compare 3.75 meters per year with 60 meters per year (which nobody ever spoke of).

Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 11, 2018, 01:03:10 AM
Yup, I missed something:  I saw your numbers, and when I fetched them (after starting to write my post) to 'do the math', I got the 60 from 60x instead of the 0.06 rate.  (I grabbed the wrong "6".)  Sorry about that.  (It works out that 3.75 is 1.8 orders of magnitude over 0.06.)
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: deconstruct on August 11, 2018, 01:45:57 AM
That's alright Tor, I just grabbed the very first article I could find on the subject.
Oh my god...
That paper contradicts your claim!

If you make an extraordinary claim that IMO is nowhere in the ballpark of reality, it is obviously not enough to "grab the first article on the subject". You should grab an article that supports your claim. I can't even wrap my brain around your logic..

Reality is that the guesstimates are all over the place, and I have seen papers that talked about 30 meters in less than a decade at some points in the past.
Again: Show that paper please.

A rise of 30 meters in less than a decade is complete and utter nonsense.

Just a back-of-the-envelope calculation:

So, to melt that much ice in 7 years, you would need the energy from a radiative imbalance of 32 W/m² that goes completely into melting ice. Just to compare: The radiative forcing from a doubling of CO2 is only 3.7 W/m². The whole radiation from the sun absorbed by the earth surface is only about 170 W/m², so we talk about nearly 20% of the total energy received from the sun!

And that heat would have to go completely into ice melting, so no warming of the oceans etc.

Such an amount of energy delivered in such a small period of time is totally unrealistic and could only delivered e.g. by an dinsoaur-grade asteroiod impact, which didn't happen in that time.


Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: oren on August 11, 2018, 10:53:42 AM
Deconstruct, while I disagreed with the original comment mentioning tens of meters SLR in a decade as a way to discredit climate models, I think you might be going too far in decnstructing that comment.
During the final draining of Lake Agassiz, sea level (away from north America) is estimated to have risen several meters in less than one year, which is the same rate as touted in the original comment (but does not support it or its assertions). You might wonder how that happened, given your melt rate calculations? Quite simple really. Meltwater that have accumulated on land over centuries from the melting and retreat of a continental ice sheet suddenly burst their ice dam (following changes in continental topography), and flowed to the sea. This cannot happen today as there are no appropriate ice sheets to feed such a phenomenon.
(Antarctica due to its location and climate is retreating at its oceanic edges, while Greenland is too small and too close to the sea to manage to accumulate large amounts of meltwater held back by ice).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/8.2_kiloyear_event (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/8.2_kiloyear_event)
For the SLR discussion read the "Cooling Event" section.

Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Sterks on August 11, 2018, 11:56:34 AM
BBR, saw your maps of temperatures in Iberia and NW Africa for June and July. Well, the temperatures there vary quite a lot from month to month as can be seen here (https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/).

Haven't you heard about the difference between climate and weather?
Of all things said on this funny thread, I support the evidence (as measured by the cells of my skin, my June-July electricity bill, and family of mine probing different areas of the Iberian peninsula by the same methods) that this summer in Spain has been mild, even pleasant, with the exception of the first week of August. It is OK now!

The rest is speculation.

Carry on
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 11, 2018, 02:09:31 PM


you're posts are very close to be trollish IMO and sooner or later others will stumble upon and recognize it.

There is a troll in this thread, but you called out the wrong person.  The real troll is much more savvy than DanielB ever was, and he is very good at getting people to fight over nonsense.   

The real shame in this is that long time experts are not posting this year, presumably because of all the nonsense, and this year is an extremely interesting season of melting. 

The Atlantic front has moved farther north, and stayed there for longer, than at anytime ever in the satellite record.   The Beaufort gyre has clearly slowed, and possibly reversed, which might mark the first reversal since before the 2007 crash. 

These are very important issues that could mark a profound change in the ocean currents that could lead at sometime in the future to an ice free CAB. 

When, or if, that might happen is anyone's guess.   However, as A-Team remarked earlier this melt season, the time of peak solar activity does not overlap well with the time of minimum ice.   

Therefore, it is safe to say that an ice free arctic would have to be caused by more than just sunshine.   If the lower amounts of ice that we are seeing now allow warmer and more salty water to move deeper into the CAB, that could be a potential mechanism. 

This thread is based upon speculation, and that is what we are all doing.  No one knows when, or even if, the CAB will become ice free in winter.   

But it is still an interesting topic to discuss.   Just ignore the trolls, and respond to the posts that you think have merit.   

If people stop attacking each other so much, it might prompt other people who have valuable things to say to get involved in the discussion.

Quoted in its entirety because I do this when I encounter a perceptive post.

Trolls have tells and, while I am generally opposed to banning on any forum, Neven should exercise this when it becomes obvious.

I also miss very much some of the experts who come around far less often, whatever their reason.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 11, 2018, 02:15:28 PM
Deconstruct,
Did you read my post (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2364.msg166502.html#msg166502)?  I like that you put numbers to DR's and the article's 'meters' and 'decades'.  You 'blew it', however, with the "nearly 2 orders of magnitude".  One order of magnitude (https://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/order-of-magnitude) over 3.75 is 37.5 and two orders is 375.  Where I come from, 60 is significantly closer to 37.5 than it is to 375, and, significantly, shares the same number of (greater than zero) decimal places.  (Interestingly, the absolute differences between 60 and [37.5 and 375] are over an order of magnitude different!  [22.5 and 315])

That's alright Tor, I just grabbed the very first article I could find on the subject.  Reality is that the guesstimates are all over the place, and I have seen papers that talked about 30 meters in less than a decade at some points in the past.  Which papers are right cannot be known, and the real point is that sudden sea level changes can happen; which tends to lend doubt about most if not all the current GCM; which do not predict the possibility of sudden change.

My real problem with some of the people who use the GCM is this:  Take two statements:

Statement 1:  Model X says Y, therefore I think Y.
Statement 2:  Model X says Y, therefore Y must be true.

Statement 1 is completely valid, and not only might help people figure out what is likely, but more importantly might help fill out the set of possibilities.

Statement 2 is pure bullshit and needs to be called out for what it is.

This is very tiresome.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 11, 2018, 02:19:53 PM

As a Londoner, perhaps I should invest in a boat...or water wings.


With very rapid sea level rise, a boat is advisable.

I'm getting a bulldozer to deal with the more immediate threat of deepening BS on this thread.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: binntho on August 11, 2018, 02:20:42 PM
Speculation is fun, and this thread is of course pure speculation. But when somebody makes repeated claims that they are unable to substantiate, but still feel they can use them as arguments in discussions, even going to the lengths of condescending the opinions on others, then they should expect to be called out.

A bit more of "I think this might be the case" and somewhat less of "I make this claim and become very angry and hurt if I'm forced to back it up" and the experts might come back?
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 11, 2018, 02:24:24 PM
Reality is that the guesstimates are all over the place,...

Casually dismissing decades of multidisciplinary science in a single, simple clause because...

...you know better.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: magnamentis on August 11, 2018, 11:49:28 PM
BBR, saw your maps of temperatures in Iberia and NW Africa for June and July. Well, the temperatures there vary quite a lot from month to month as can be seen here (https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/).

Haven't you heard about the difference between climate and weather?
Of all things said on this funny thread, I support the evidence (as measured by the cells of my skin, my June-July electricity bill, and family of mine probing different areas of the Iberian peninsula by the same methods) that this summer in Spain has been mild, even pleasant, with the exception of the first week of August. It is OK now!

The rest is speculation.

Carry on

confirms what i posted earlier. i use the same measurement tools, that with the E-Bill for aircon is a good one but so true and undeniable ;)

i only react to such claims of extreme heat or cold or humidity when i've spent most of the time in the region and in early spring we all commonly agreed that it's a bit extra cools in the mornings. i know which jacket i have to wear on the bike and whether i need the heated handle bars or not ;)
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Peter Ellis on August 12, 2018, 10:28:17 PM
However, as A-Team remarked earlier this melt season, the time of peak solar activity does not overlap well with the time of minimum ice. 

Why would you expect it to?  Even in a world where sunlight is the main cause of ice melt, then the peak solar activity would not coincide with the point of minimum ice but with the peak point of ice loss - i.e. the steepest part of the yearly ice loss curve during the melt season.

As it happens, there's a little bit of extra lag beyond that, because it takes a while for various short-term summer feedbacks (snow melt lowering albedo, melt ponds and leads likewise, and the sheer time taken to melt through the ice layer) to kick in. Not much of a lag though - the point of fastest melt rate typically occurs within 2-4 weeks after the solstice.

The inflection point between melting and freezing (i.e. the annual minimum) happens at or around the equinox, more or less exactly as you'd expect from that being the point where solar input (or rather radiation balance) starts to turn negative.

If you approximate ice extent as a yearly sine wave, it's offset by 1/4 of a cycle from the solar input cycle, exactly as you'd expect if insolation was the main factor affecting melt and freeze-up.  Sure, there are other interesting dynamics from warm air and warm water intrusion - and we discuss them to death every year - but they're second order effects.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Rod on August 13, 2018, 01:27:09 AM
However, as A-Team remarked earlier this melt season, the time of peak solar activity does not overlap well with the time of minimum ice. 

Why would you expect it to?  Even in a world where sunlight is the main cause of ice melt, then the peak solar activity would not coincide with the point of minimum ice but with the peak point of ice loss - i.e. the steepest part of the yearly ice loss curve during the melt season.

As it happens, there's a little bit of extra lag beyond that, because it takes a while for various short-term summer feedbacks (snow melt lowering albedo, melt ponds and leads likewise, and the sheer time taken to melt through the ice layer) to kick in. Not much of a lag though - the point of fastest melt rate typically occurs within 2-4 weeks after the solstice.

The inflection point between melting and freezing (i.e. the annual minimum) happens at or around the equinox, more or less exactly as you'd expect from that being the point where solar input (or rather radiation balance) starts to turn negative.

If you approximate ice extent as a yearly sine wave, it's offset by 1/4 of a cycle from the solar input cycle, exactly as you'd expect if insolation was the main factor affecting melt and freeze-up.  Sure, there are other interesting dynamics from warm air and warm water intrusion - and we discuss them to death every year - but they're second order effects.

Hmmmm.  Seems like you are attacking me for something I never said.  I never said that I expected peak solar activity to coincide with minimum ice.  I was simply pointing out the obvious in connection with the topic of this thread. 

You can calculate all the sine waves you want, but ignoring the effects of warm water air and warm water intrusion is just silly.   When the ice finally goes, the warm ocean currents are what will kill it. 
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: John Batteen on August 13, 2018, 03:21:38 AM
I'm with Rod.  I miss the atmosphere here about 3-5 years ago.  Even 2 years ago.  It used to be straight information.  I loved lurking here and learning.  Now there's a high signal-to-noise ratio requiring much sorting and sifting to get to the goods.  I still enjoy lurking here but...  it's more taxing than it once was.

On topic, about 9 years ago when I was just beginning my journey into self-education on weather and climate, Gavin Schmidt came to the university in the city near me to give some kind of talk.  I drove an hour to get there, and during the Q&A at the end I asked him this very question.  At the time I was disappointed by his answer: "Long after we're dead."  Think about the Great Lakes.  Living in Minnesota at the time, I'm only really familiar with Lake Superior, but it freezes at least a little bit every winter and the adjacent land masses see temperatures into the 80s every year and occasionally 90s.  I know there is a difference freshwater versus salt, but even so.  It will be a long time before the Arctic is that warm.  That much polar night surrounded by large continents for cold air masses.  It will get pretty warm in the summer yet and still freeze in the winter.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: bbr2314 on August 13, 2018, 03:27:00 AM
I'm with Rod.  I miss the atmosphere here about 3-5 years ago.  Even 2 years ago.  It used to be straight information.  I loved lurking here and learning.  Now there's a high signal-to-noise ratio requiring much sorting and sifting to get to the goods.  I still enjoy lurking here but...  it's more taxing than it once was.

On topic, about 9 years ago when I was just beginning my journey into self-education on weather and climate, Gavin Schmidt came to the university in the city near me to give some kind of talk.  I drove an hour to get there, and during the Q&A at the end I asked him this very question.  At the time I was disappointed by his answer: "Long after we're dead."  Think about the Great Lakes.  Living in Minnesota at the time, I'm only really familiar with Lake Superior, but it freezes at least a little bit every winter and the adjacent land masses see temperatures into the 80s every year and occasionally 90s.  I know there is a difference freshwater versus salt, but even so.  It will be a long time before the Arctic is that warm.  That much polar night surrounded by large continents for cold air masses.  It will get pretty warm in the summer yet and still freeze in the winter.
The Great Lakes aren't directly adjacent to the Atlantic Ocean for thousands of miles...
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Rod on August 13, 2018, 04:40:20 AM


On topic, about 9 years ago when I was just beginning my journey into self-education on weather and climate, Gavin Schmidt came to the university in the city near me to give some kind of talk.  I drove an hour to get there, and during the Q&A at the end I asked him this very question.  At the time I was disappointed by his answer: "Long after we're dead."  Think about the Great Lakes.  Living in Minnesota at the time, I'm only really familiar with Lake Superior, but it freezes at least a little bit every winter and the adjacent land masses see temperatures into the 80s every year and occasionally 90s.  I know there is a difference freshwater versus salt, but even so.  It will be a long time before the Arctic is that warm.  That much polar night surrounded by large continents for cold air masses.  It will get pretty warm in the summer yet and still freeze in the winter.
The Great Lakes aren't directly adjacent to the Atlantic Ocean for thousands of miles...

I understand his point, and I think you do too bbr.  It is just like the Hudson that we were all talking about a few days ago. While your statement is true, it was unnecessary.  Don't be hypocritical.  It hurts your credibility.  I enjoy your posts and don't want to see you moderated or banned like Hyperion was. 
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: HapHazard on August 13, 2018, 04:53:05 AM
I'm with Rod.  I miss the atmosphere here about 3-5 years ago.  Even 2 years ago.  It used to be straight information.  I loved lurking here and learning.  Now there's a high signal-to-noise ratio requiring much sorting and sifting to get to the goods.  I still enjoy lurking here but...  it's more taxing than it once was.

Sad part is that it will only get worse as time goes on - in conjunction with the Arctic sea ice itself.  :(
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: jdallen on August 13, 2018, 06:49:51 AM

Just a back-of-the-envelope calculation:
  • The energy required to melt enough ice for a 30m sea-level-rise (about 1016 cubic meters of water)
    1.08 * 1019 kg * 3.335 * 105 J/kg
    = 1021 Wh
  • The energy absorbed by the whole earth surface for a radiative forcing of 1 Watt/m² over 7 years is
    5.1 * 1014 m² * 1 W/m² * 7 * 8760 h 
    = 3.13 * 10^19 Wh


Thank you. I was about yo go through exactly the same exercise.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: John Batteen on August 13, 2018, 07:44:08 AM
I think seasonal ice will cling to the edges of the continents for some time to come.  I could see some portion of the interior or Atlantic-facing areas staying ice free over winter if kept well mixed in the not so distant future.
Title: Re: When will the Arctic Ocean (CAB) go Ice Free in Winter?
Post by: Dharma Rupa on August 13, 2018, 01:58:51 PM
I think seasonal ice will cling to the edges of the continents for some time to come.  I could see some portion of the interior or Atlantic-facing areas staying ice free over winter if kept well mixed in the not so distant future.

Which was my original question.  I asked only about the CAB -- areas that were not close to the continents or tightly surrounded by land.

It is my guess that when the CAB goes ice-free in Summer it also goes ice-free in Winter.