Messages

1

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: March 31, 2021, 09:28:47 PM »

It seems like much is riding now on the duration of immunity . Those people who initially caught covid have had plenty of time to get reinfected but reinfection seems rare unless it is to the South African or Brazilian variants. So immunity from first infection is holding about a year from first cases of the pandemic.
 Immunity gained from the vaccination campaigns that started three months ago are still holding. Hopefully immunity from vaccines lasts as long as it does from infection. The definition of immunity is going to become more important as cases if reinfection do , for whatever reason , start to rise. I think too many people think immunity is an on and off switch.
 Anyone have any ideas about how reinfection rates will develop over the next one or two year timeframe ? 

2

Policy and solutions / Re: Ships and boats

« on: March 27, 2021, 05:32:35 AM »

Or dam the canal on either side of the Ever Given and flood the resulting lake ... float her out.

3

Policy and solutions / Re: Net-Zero plans and the hard limits of carbon offsets

« on: March 24, 2021, 10:33:21 PM »

Thanks Kassy, The permanence issue of forest carbon offsets has always bothered me. I think of carbon in the carbonate sink as permanence when it settles on the continental shelf and fast cycle carbon when it dissolves below the saturation horizon. The forest carbon cycle is much faster than dissolved CO2 in the deep oceans and that doesn’t seem like a good place to put it because a thousand years doesn’t seem long enough to me either. 
 
 

4

Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event

« on: March 11, 2021, 02:25:02 PM »

El CID, While I would agree with you about current small changes to agricultural production at a local level that 120F heatwave we saw last summer was an eye opener. Even just one heatwave like that can cause damage to tree crops that take years to recover from. Do really extreme heatwaves start to show up more often ? A one time heatwave isn’t a trend ,it’s just a story , and I will need to prune out a lot of deadwood and plant but I would prefer to not replete this on an annual basis.
 The ocean however is a completely different story and I have seen the dieoffs and disease and there have been huge shifts in fish populations. The ocean heatwave of 2013 has effectively killed the entire nearshore reef system from the Columbia River to Pt. Sur  because the heatwave caused something close to extinction of a very important predator. The heatwave, and acidification, and oxygen depletion combined to kill starfish and it restructured the entire nearshore ecosystem. So I am here on my farm saying I agree that farm production doesn’t seem be have been hit too hard yet but a Blue Ocean and more ocean heatwaves are almost certainly correlated . So the ocean seems much more affected but of course nobody sees that and I doubt the heatwave last year matters to most people either but I can see it in my trees this year, dead branches.
 

5

Consequences / Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences

« on: March 11, 2021, 01:45:47 PM »

Restaurants are starting to buy my pork again after a year without selling anything to them. Because there have been winners in the Covid inspired loose money stock market run,  high end restaurants will come out of the lockdowns just fine.
 The amazon model and PayPal combine to allow small scale producers a place in the larger markets they could never access with farmers markets and farm stands. I can get a truck to pick up product at ten in the morning from my driveway and with some confidence expect it to be delivered next day , still frozen, across the entire state of Calif.  That is a big market. Producers in other states can’t reach me because shipping costs skyrocket at about a thousand miles and further.
 It would be interesting to see some energy numbers on the next day delivery model. I know the farm stand wasn’t good because individuals in cars would each drive several miles out of town to reach me and farms tend to be outside of town in most places. Farmers markets require the farmers to drive hundreds of miles a week to hit the best paying markets so they too have drawbacks. Employees and or time away from the farm.  So no perfect system ,energy wise , but quantifying the energy outputs would be interesting on the four ways to move produce. Big ag with warehouses and distribution networks are likely the most efficient because of scale but they allow zero connections with the producers themselves which ,if you care where your food comes from , is important also.
 Covid has changed how people buy their food , Community Supported Agriculture, CSA’s have expanded greatly and online shipping direct from the farm has increased also. With some local high end restaurants coming back things should be good until the government largess bleeds out of the system and we have to pay for the hangover.

6

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD

« on: March 09, 2021, 11:29:54 PM »

Voxmundi, Well I am hardly non biased on the sea otter/urchin story but hoping that sea otters will fix this problem is not a whole lot more likely than the pycnopodia making a miraculous return. I know some divers think the kelp will just miraculously return even without sea otters or starfish.
 Some of my more pragmatic friends are trying to kill the purple urchins and have ongoing removal efforts but the red urchins fill in after you take the purple ones so now we get into regulatory problems with destroying a resource. Red Sea urchins are a regulated fishery with size limits , seasons, limited permits and closed areas. So just going out to kill red urchins with hammers is a problem.
 I know and despise sea otter politics. I am well versed. Just type my name and sea otters into google search. Tom may find a reason to really not like me. I negotiated an exemption to the ESA on sea otter take almost thirty years ago. Fisheries fought clear to the Supreme Court trying to save it but we lost. But three hundred sea urchin divers fought off the US Fish and Wildlife for over twenty years so losing slowly is actually success when you are fighting the US government in a court of law. They made a negotiated deal and reneged so we gave em hell.

https://g2kr.com/urchin-removal-petition

7

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD

« on: March 05, 2021, 05:21:32 PM »

Kassy, The sea star dieoff paper exposes acidification and hypoxia , already an annual springtime occurrence in the Calif. Current Ecosystem ,  exacerbating conditions on a more micro level at the skin / water surface layer for starfish. Organic matter that resulted from hot water killing phytoplankton  settles unto the skin of soft skinned sea stars where it builds up conditions ripe for bacterial remineralization. The remineralization further drops pH and oxygen resulting in skin lesions which are entry points for other pathogens. For starfish with harder smooth skin the organic matter doesn’t build up so not all starfish are susceptible to the conditions of low oxygen/ low pH at the skin surface. Not all starfish are affected.
 We also saw Red Sea urchins with lesions during the same time period , a condition called “ blackspot disease.”  It may be that some sea urchins are susceptible to the same problems as sea stars.
 There are purple urchin barrens now within prime Sea Otter habitate that Sea Otters have habituated for sixty years and there are currently urchin removal efforts by humans to try to control them. Purple urchins do not offer food value to sea otters when they build into high concentrations so you can get urchin barrens within Sea Otter territory.
 In Southern Calif. we have lobster and a fish called a Sheepshead that prey on Sea Urchins so there are a couple predators in Southern Calif. not found North of Point Conception . But even in Southern Calif. purple urchins have denuded the kelp at San Miguel Island, the northernmost of the Channel Islands. We have seen large purple urchin dieoffs during former El Niño events of 82-83 and 97-98 and when water temperatures exceed 75F we will see purples die in Southern Calif again but the problem for Northern Calif is we don’t get water temperatures that high so the purples will persist even through the next big El Niño.
 
 

8

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: February 28, 2021, 12:57:20 AM »

We had a problem at one of our local prisons.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/07/23/coronavirus-lompoc-federal-prison-failed-isolate-covid-19-inmates/5493035002/
“Lompoc officials later began testing all prisoners at one facility in the compound, where 77% of inmates tested positive.”
 Maybe not the best example but how could there be natural immunity and get 77% positive for a population that can’t say no to testing or yes to isolation.
 So far 5 have died.

9

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: February 28, 2021, 12:07:44 AM »

Your graph shows one in three hundred and your intention is to minimize those odds. Yes odds of death in the US for the first year of the pandemic were really one in six hundred but if you wish to minimize 1 in 300 then minimizing 1 in 600 is so much easier.
 Your chart is stunningly meaningless . Why show a chart with double the odds of dying unless it is simply a foil to imply one in six hundred is minuscule in comparison ?
 On this forum we prefer you to show us these studies about natural immunity. Probably more tilted crap but let’s see them. Source?

10

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: February 27, 2021, 11:12:00 PM »

Thomas, If you don’t hit the link you can’t read the numbers on your graphs/post.
 I had a job as a commercial sea urchin diver and the chance of death in any year was about 1 in 300 and other than astronaut you don’t find those odds in other occupations. No big deal but it gives me some perspective on your one million deaths out of 300 million population. Your chart.
 As a commercial diver you can also get the bends, get an embolism, lose fingers, or be maimed in numerous ways but just like your chart, we’ll just ignor those risks. 
 If everyone got Covid in the US we would have about five times more deaths so 2.5 million deaths without vaccines but maybe we could try to minimize that with a chart also. I mean it’s only a little more dangerous than being an astronaut or a sea urchin diver.
 But after getting close to accidental death a few times you kinda get more risk averse so maybe my opinion is jaded by personal close calls. Trying to minimize the risks of death by using charts just seems way to impersonal to me . One in three hundred is bad odds for dying.

11

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy

« on: February 23, 2021, 05:57:16 PM »

SciGuy, The gridley power Bill is for 1,638 kWh used in 18 days. My same energy use was 290kWh and with Solar producing 500 kWh and two powerwalls I have 185kWh put unto the grid over that same 18 day period.  OK Calif. not Texas but 1,638 kWh is more than I use in four months and no home solar or powerwall combo will fix the usage problem this homeowner has. Gotta run on way less electricity.

12

Policy and solutions / Re: Becoming Vegan

« on: February 20, 2021, 05:08:34 PM »

“Impossible Foods also issued a press release earlier this week declaring it is doubling the size of its research and development department, with the goal of helping "eliminate animal agriculture."
 From Sigmetnow link above.

Bill Gates is a supporter and is buying LOTS of land in the best field pea production areas of the US. Yellow peas production is IMO why Gates is buying farmland. Just to be clear this is just a theory but the Palouse has been one of the best pea production areas and Gates recently bought a $171 million dollar property in Horse Heavens.
https://landreport.com/2021/01/bill-gates-americas-top-farmland-owner/

13

Science / Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero

« on: February 09, 2021, 03:16:10 PM »

The amount of shelf is relatively large for the Arctic Ocean. The shelf and areas shallower than the carbonate compensation depth act as long term carbonate sinks and so long as the saturation horizon doesn’t shoal too much the Arctic Oceans shelf area may prove to be an important part of the earths long term carbon burial system when the ice recedes. However if the saturation horizon shoals to the surface the Arctic and other oceanic carbon sinks will fail. So even though the Arctic oceans surface area is small it’s relatively large shelf area may prove important to earths ability to sink carbon over the next hundred thousand years .

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/4/eabd4876
Hat tip to Kassy

. The world's largest continental shelf extends 1,500 km (about 930 miles) from the coast of Siberia into the Arctic Ocean.
www.britannica.com › science › con...
Continental shelf | geology | Britannica

about 15% of the world's shelf seas (Menard and Smith 1966),

14

The rest / Re: eggs not a cardivascular hazard, actually help.

« on: February 06, 2021, 05:50:06 PM »

Chickens and the eggs they lay are very important to any survival food planning. I am pleased that they are healthy but when you’re hungry they are an important protein source and a few years less to live isn’t probably top of your decision matrix.
 Eggs or whipped egg whites can leaven cakes , cookies, or breads if you have nothing else available.
Palatability is important to enjoying your food and leavened cake is a big improvement on hard tack, IMO.
 Cooking doesn’t seem to get much attention , deserves more . I can’t imagine cooking without eggs.
The hens run loose , and they are enjoyable company around the farm. Beautiful really.

15

Science / Re: Carbon Cycle

« on: February 01, 2021, 06:00:00 PM »

Kassy, The Komar/ Zeebe paper is open access.

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/4/eabd4876

Thanks for the news article, now for some deep reading.

16

Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)

« on: January 30, 2021, 05:39:08 PM »

Sigmetnow, I believe some ag lands that have been using conventional  industrial ag  can change their operating practices and add carbon back to their farmland. Mollisol  soils  that are naturally deep and fertile can be saved and some of the carbon released with plows and conventional chemical fertilizers can be added back but getting carbon levels back to virgin ground ( prairies ) is just fantasy. Some farmers have changed how they farm and can document carbon capture but restoring formerly fertile ground is not the same as converting desert lands or thin soil profiles into carbon sinks.
It took millions of years to build deep, rich prairie soils . It  took less than two hundred years to turn those rich soils into carbon sources and to be practical we should think about the next two hundred years to restore them.
 Paying people to restore ag land when they profited off ruining it seems like one more scam to me but I suppose some form of bribery will be used to help placate corporate ag interests and carbon capture looks to be the likely form . We can measure the efficacy of using ag land to capture carbon and incentives can be tailored to results but I doubt that is how the government will proceed.
 We are getting scammed just like those carbon credits rich people buy to assuage their guilt when they fly. Where are the studies that document how much carbon has been buried by tree planting paid for with carbon credits ?
 But then where is the proof that the tax incentives Tesla receives have resulted in carbon savings commensurate with their costs ? Tesla owners want to believe they are saving the planet and deserve their handouts and big ag just wants in on the payola.
 A tax system that pays people who don’t need new cars, or big tractors, or vast landholdings and can live frugally isn’t going to make the rich richer and therefor it isn’t going to happen. Tesla and big ag are much more likely the benefactors of our false prophets.

17

Walking the walk / Re: Gardening

« on: January 27, 2021, 10:22:01 PM »

El CID, I used to have five acres in vegetables, soil prep, drip tape, planting, cultivating, picking,  selling to restaurants and four days of farm stand offerings seven months a year. My wife would help in the farm stand but otherwise I did it alone. I keep logs but in general vegetables sold for $1 a pound and I could grow 15 to 20 thousand pounds a year. It’s not that it’s so very much work but that it’s so very little money. I had another job as a commercial sea urchin diver for the remaining five winter months so I had year round very physical work and farming was the easy part.
 I learned some labor saving techniques and it is amazing how much food one man and a small tractor can produce. Drip tape, plastic mulch, fertilizer, and irrigation but ultimately very little money and damn hard on the land growing crops like corn. As a fluke I starting raising Mangalitsa pigs . Pigs are less work but they are work 365 days a year. The money is roughly four times better. The pigs are hard on the ground so I keep them off the best garden dirt.
  I play with farming my little acre area with as much care, compost and manure( chicken horse goat ) as I can grow onsite. This year I splurged and bought forty yards. I try to not use my little cultivating tractor and prefer my electric wheelhoe. I don’t use plastic drip tape or plastic mulch anymore except a little floating cover for frost protection. I know I am on track when I can see healthy worms . So I used to farm my vegetables to sell but now I only grow them for the fun and no I don’t think it’s that much work .
 This year I found a spring or more like a small weep and I have been working on plumbing it to a tank. 
I have several Chilean wine palms I have grown from seed collected from 100 year old trees in Santa Barbara. I am going to try and devise a way to use the little spring to water the palm  trees so that when I am gone the trees will have gravity access to water.  I have a moreton bay fig that I am going to plant as a specimen tree. Figs tend to freeze out around here but with a little greenhouse built around it maybe I can give it a head start before climate change kicks in. I am planting trees that are really better adapted to warmer climes but soon enough they will be well adapted and my stone fruit will suffer lack of winter chill.
 Anyway it’s a good day of rain and I think I have spring fever.

 

18

Walking the walk / Re: Gardening

« on: January 27, 2021, 05:44:00 PM »

El CID, I have just planted my carrots as we are about to get the first substantial rains. Last year I had lots of carrots and kohlrabi leaves so I cooked guanciale and fried the root crops in the oil. The kohlrabi reseeded this year so in a couple months we will have abundance again.
 I usually put out a cover crop but rains are so late this year I didn’t put in the cover. Instead I bought $800 of compost last spring,  a semi load. I put it out about four inches thick over and area of half and acre and smoothed it with a rake. I stretched and old heavy rope in one hundred foot straight lines and pulled it to make nice long lines to plant my seeds. So without much work I have my garden started.
 Too bad there aren’t any victory gardens being promoted with the Covid hunger issues expanding. The government could help as they did in WW2 but I guess sitting in your car waiting for food handouts is easier. Handouts aren’t  a solution in the long run but as usual nobody is thinking our problems are systemic or long lasting. I think people might starve rather than get their hands dirty.
 There are ways to eat that are very inexpensive. Buying bulk wheat or corn and making your own bread or masa can feed a family on pennies per day. At some point there will be no rescue from free food. At some point we either learn how to take care of ourselves or risk our electronic neverland coming back to bite us.

19

Policy and solutions / Re: Water Resource Management

« on: January 20, 2021, 07:46:47 AM »

Vox , If enough of this gel were placed high on a mountain you could produce energy from hydropower.
Close to a perpetual motion machine.
Harvest of water vapor will of course leave someone’s air drier downstream/ downwind. For an environment like Coastal Southern Calif. nighttime fog may turn into a water resource but a lowered air moisture content might prove detrimental to native flora. That is I don’t believe in free lunches.
 Our Southern Calif. water season has delivered less than two inches so far this year although some rains are forecast for the weekend. If we can change fog into water it will be a large temptation to do so no matter the consequences to native plant life and dependent fauna.

20

Consequences / Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences

« on: January 19, 2021, 05:47:55 PM »

Tom, So even if you paid the 70 billion in overdue rent where are the jobs and income to pay next months rent ? Where are the tax revenues to keep funding all the county , state and federal jobs that have continued to receive incomes even though a large part of the tax base disappeared a year ago ?
And with a reduced tax base those government agencies expanded by borrowing ?
 But, High end residential real estate in Florida, Calif. and Hawaii is doing very well , prices are up and inventory is down.
 All bets are on Covid going away. If Covid sticks around for the ten years of your poll there are a lot of government jobs that will evaporate like the service sector workforce already has. I remember our economy was called a service economy a year ago. What do we call it now? 
 And none of this ruffles the feathers of the almighty Dow because Covid is going away and the service sector is gonna come charging back, this summer or maybe next year .
 Any guesses ?

21

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum

« on: January 15, 2021, 09:29:37 PM »

That van is equipped with chicken wire on the roof to block , EMP ?  Tinfoil for sure.
More people should realize that any advice given is usually wasted hot air anyhow.

22

Arctic sea ice / Re: polar vortex - where?

« on: January 15, 2021, 05:51:38 PM »

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.shtml

 It looks like the cold over Greenland pushes right across North America and east into the Western North Pacific.
 The SSW warming , or the temperatures at 10, 30, and 50 hPa are currently spiking back up.
 

23

Consequences / Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences

« on: January 15, 2021, 05:25:46 PM »

YLL, reminds me of a Bukowski quote.

“suicide fails as you get older:
there’s less and less to kill.”

24

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season

« on: January 13, 2021, 03:18:08 AM »

The AO was at historic lows below-3 on the 4th . Well I did find Jan. 1966 at -3.2 , Feb. 2010 -4.2 and Feb. 2020 also below -3 but those are the only numbers below -3 since 1950.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

Also lots of warming at 30hPa

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

25

Walking the walk / Re: Gardening

« on: January 11, 2021, 02:53:05 AM »

El CID, Yes well written. I think some inclusion of foraging and low energy input agriculture can be rebuilt in some places but all the energy we currently use allows farming marginal land and pumping deep aquifers. Without lots of energy there will be less land viable for food production.

26

The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency

« on: January 07, 2021, 06:22:46 PM »

DC Mayors office has photos of persons of interest. So some of these retards are going down.
https://mpdc.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/mpdc/publication/attachments/POIs%20of%20Interest_1.7.21.pdf

Dear Republican Warriors, recognize your buddies?

27

Arctic sea ice / Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting

« on: January 07, 2021, 05:34:24 AM »

From JMA  “ A major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) started in the Northern Hemisphere at 30-hPa around 4 January 2021. ”

28

Arctic sea ice / Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting

« on: January 05, 2021, 09:19:33 PM »

The JMA 10hPa temp. at the North Pole has jumped 50 degrees in less than a week.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

29

Arctic sea ice / Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting

« on: January 03, 2021, 06:06:37 PM »

Shared Humanity, Born from the Void did an article predicting a developing SSW a couple weeks ago. His article talked about a Ural blocking high pressure that sets up conditions for a SSW to develop. So if you get a chance to read his article it is a perfect primer for the other link I posted yesterday.

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/10610-arctic-amplification-and-winter-weather---whats-the-connection

I liked this explanation from BFTV’s article


“Capturing the Ridge
When a jet stream ridge reaches eastern Europe/western Russia, the added atmospheric thickness in the Barents/Kara region can amplify it. The amplified ridge creates a stronger high-pressure system to its east. In this case, it promotes a stronger Siberian high pressure, pulling colder air south and enhancing snowfall.
Secondly, the amplification also slows down eastward progression of the Rossby waves, encouraging blocking high pressure around the Ural Mountains, otherwise known as Ural Blocking. This is where we come back to the stratosphere! This Ural Blocking is positioned in such a way that when the eastward moving Rossby waves encounter the block, the waves can break. This results in energy being driven both poleward (towards the Arctic) and vertically into the stratosphere. Picture it like a wave breaking against a cliff, with water shooting vertically and horizontally. The net result being disruption of the Arctic stratospheric vortex. A reduction or reversal of the dominant westerly winds then occurs, which can propagate down through the atmosphere, disrupting weather patterns at the surface and allowing cold air to spill south out of the Arctic.“

30

Arctic sea ice / Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting

« on: January 02, 2021, 06:14:14 PM »

I found a good write up on the current SSW.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/stratosphere-major-winter-warming-watch-january-2021-fa/

31

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: December 31, 2020, 06:08:53 PM »

Here is a Texas antivax site on Facebook

https://m.facebook.com/TexansForVaccineChoice/posts/

This is a political action committee site so not at radical as what I am seeing in the murkier realms of the internet.
But it looks like there may be enough antivax problems to cut into herd immunity . So if the US fails how will other countries that succeed deal with perpetual carrier countries like we may become ?

32

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor

« on: December 29, 2020, 05:16:08 PM »

HapHazard, I have to claim ownership of  some part of your amusement . I am conflicted and from the comforts of my couch I question the cost of it. And for my amusement I struggle back through the layers of tools technology has straddled us with to try and figure a way around it . And maybe no we wouldn’t be humans without fire but it’s worth some experimenting , to make sure.
 

“Original Sin” Robinson Jeffers

  https://staringatangels.wordpress.com/2009/11/21/two-amazing-poems/

33

Walking the walk / Re: Meat Consumption and Global Warming

« on: December 24, 2020, 05:41:03 PM »

Kassy, I tried to read the paper linked in the guardian article to see why it’s results are different than other studies I have read about farming and carbon inputs. The article links other studies but doesn’t reveal how it reaches it’s conclusions. Near the end it includes costs of healthcare due to eating meat but IMO science involving farming issues should be more frank in methods used to compare different farming techniques.  It would also help if a simple farmer could read and understand claims made.
Otherwise someone like me tends to think the author performed a writing exercise to justify their predetermined policy advice.

A carbon tax redistributed from the highest users to the lowest users would seem easier than a meat tax. But I am a pig farmer.” Tax the rich, feed the poor, till there are no rich no more. “

34

The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread

« on: December 24, 2020, 05:25:15 PM »

Nanning, It is good to hear from you . I miss contributions from proponents of “small is beautiful “.
If you haven’t looked at zeroinputagriculture give it a look. I wish we could actually compare the carbon footprint of minimalists like you or Shane at zeroinput with the techno utopia proponents . The techno crowd seems to push their toys not their carbon footprint.
If you have examples of other minimalists publishing their results please link their sites.
Merry Christmas

35

Walking the walk / Re: Zero-Carbon Farming and Living via the Acorn Path

« on: December 21, 2020, 05:17:49 PM »

Organic SU, I posted a link to another zeroinput agriculture adventurer upthread. Here is a piece he wrote about extracting starch from cannas. Arrowroot starch.

https://zeroinputagriculture.wordpress.com/2019/10/21/tools-and-techniques-canna-flour/

36

Walking the walk / Re: Zero-Carbon Farming and Living via the Acorn Path

« on: December 19, 2020, 04:27:21 PM »

OrganicSU, I don’t have a good answer.  I prefer to process acorns that haven’t cracked open because I harvest in public spaces and would prefer to avoid contamination. When you look at a USDA lists of food born pathogens pistachios reoccur as vectors. Pistachios crack before they fall from the tree so they are susceptible to contamination on the ground. Pistachios are eaten raw so they are a higher risk than acorns that get cooked .
 Our holm oaks are late to fall this year. I checked and still need to wait a couple more weeks. The dried acorns from last year are running low because I am feeding up a couple pigs on them. I have less than a hundred pounds in storage.

37

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues

« on: December 18, 2020, 05:44:22 PM »

The value of a barrel of oil is the value of each of it’s component parts, kerosene, gas, diesel , lubricants, LNG, combined.  Seems logical . And yes if sales and price of any component part drops either the other parts price rise to compensate or the value of your barrel of oil drops.
 Covid has monkey-wrenched how we use fuel, how much we travel , where we work, whether we attend meetings, fly, etc. and it is interesting to think about how those component parts of the oil barrel are faring . Kerosene use is down for sure so how does that affect the value of a barrel ? Are stockpiles of kerosene building ? Is price of kerosene dropping?
 Does society get back to pre-Covid travel and working conditions?  Pretty big issues . Demand destruction for component parts of the oil barrel is one part, and long term implications for renewables is another. Will US fracking resume even if oil prices increase ?
 So anyway it’s interesting .

38

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD

« on: December 16, 2020, 05:05:03 PM »

El CID,      El Niño , La Niña , and the PDO warm and cold events all have predictive value of precipitation for different regions. But I don’t see any models that accurately predict any of them two or three years in advance , let alone decades in advance, so any model predictions of long term precipitation will be flawed by where we are in any one of the cycles mentioned above. Cold or warm water PDO events can last multiple decades so model predictions of precipitation will only be accurate in very long term averages and since we farm on annual availability of rains I would much prefer better predictive values to the Ninos and PDO. Our average precipitation over century scales is interesting but not very useful considering the very likely heating involved on century scale timelines.

39

Consequences / Re: 2020 ENSO

« on: December 14, 2020, 09:34:11 PM »

The PDO index is still negative .

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.graph

It is very dry in the Southwest and unfortunately La Niña and a negative PDO both portend more drought.
30,000 Western Monarchs , off subject but somehow related. They are just something that went from great numbers I remember well, to near ruin. Millions and millions of people have seen the same thing and yet are numb to it, or blind maybe.

https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/pdo

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/10/climate/la-nina-southwest-drought.html

40

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season

« on: December 12, 2020, 09:54:03 PM »

Bornfromthevoid, Does the SSW in El Cids post above have something to do with your checklist ?

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/10610-arctic-amplification-and-winter-weather---whats-the-connection

41

The rest / Re: SpaceX

« on: December 12, 2020, 08:26:44 PM »

So if you run out of fuel on VirginAtlantic you glide back in and safely land but if you run low on or out of fuel on Starship...kaboom!

42

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: December 12, 2020, 05:02:42 PM »

Yesterday I was in Atascadero and Paso Robles , two cities in northern San Luis Obispo County Ca.
Although San Luis county is in the Southern Calif. block of counties that have been ordered to shut down indoor dining there is a coordinated revolt and restaurants are still open to indoor dining. Paso Robles has been leading the case numbers for San Luis County for some time but leaving your restaurants open with the current surge in Southern Cal is  an invitation to get a Christmas surprise.
The county board voted to support the business owners and the police and sheriffs say they won’t enforce new restrictions. The county board later said they don’t have authority over state regulations but the business owners are hearing what they want to hear.
From a local paper”San Luis Obispo County Sheriff Ian Parkinson and District Attorney Dan Dow on Tuesday both said they won’t strictly enforce the new state coronavirus rules or pursue criminal charges against residents who violate the stay-at-home order.

“Families and businesses in our county are struggling to keep their head above water and survive financially,” Dow said. “There is no sense in labeling a business owner or a business as a criminal for choosing to keep their business open in a manner that adequately protects their customers — who, by the way, are not being forced to enter their business.”

Read more here: https://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/local/article247780705.html#storylink=cpy

The counties of Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo still do have intensive care beds available but if S.D,L.A. San Bernardino and Orange Counties fill their ICU beds the state ,I believe, would like to have the ability to send cases north. We are not acting like we are one country, one state or even a region ( Southern Calif. ) .  Every man for himself , and have a nice dinner.

43

The rest / Re: SpaceX

« on: December 10, 2020, 05:32:20 PM »

Sigmetnow,  Can starship reach orbit and then slow down and simply fall back to earth ? We see standard rocket re-entry with lots of friction and heat , does the starship fall slowly enough to avoid heat or any worries about burning up. I would think at very high altitudes there is very little air and falling speed would be very high.

Btw, The comments on the YouTube about the SN8 launch are very funny.

44

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD

« on: December 07, 2020, 06:20:46 PM »

might i mourn the plants never seeing the sun or feeling the warm breeze of a new spring day. The rabbits who would so enjoy the sweet green, the bugs that might otherwise bother us but feed a sky of birds. The fungi never grown, the soil as dead as a concrete slab. The air sanitized so the powered mildew never forms. All things controlled by panels and sensors but never feeling the soft touch of the gardener hands like all things are an end point to be rationalized, no circle of life. No circle of life and we wonder why the planet is dying ?  We are fucked up in the head.

45

Walking the walk / Re: Zero-Carbon Farming and Living via the Acorn Path

« on: December 05, 2020, 06:29:13 PM »

 El CID, I know you aren’t thinking bottlenecks in the human population but land once farmed that reverts to forest will regrow it’s soil . Getting humans to facilitate that conversion , less humans more trees , is counterintuitive from a humans perspective. So we rationalize cutting down the forests to plant crops because it is better for humans. Even if we plant cover crops, maintain vegetive growth and ideal soil moisture year round the crops we grow pull some of that fertility back out of the soil each year.
But trees just sit there with very deep roots and over the hundreds of years they may live they build leaf cover under their boughs and with the help of symbiotic bacteria their roots carry carbon down deep into the soil.  Your garden doesn’t carry carbon to depth and tests on carbon at depth in no-till settings , like the mollisols  Gabe is farming, are still declining. But yes he is doing better work than anyone I have ever seen. The vast majority of us ( farmers ) are not putting carbon back into our soil.
 If my efforts are more garden sized and I keep as much ground cover as I can on the surface and I never till, and add compost , and grow a nitrogen building cover crop annually and still don’t use fossil fuel ,my soil , my garden , and my efforts still will never mimic a thousand year old oak forest that otherwise might be here , without modern agriculture.
 I can’t fix it , I am just trying to minimize my contribution to progress. I will plant some oak trees this year anyway and hope for the best.
 Just a thought but progress somehow has good connotations connected with it. I can’t think of a word that means going backward and also is viewed as a positive thing.


https://www.lexico.com/synonyms/retrograde

46

Walking the walk / Re: Zero-Carbon Farming and Living via the Acorn Path

« on: December 04, 2020, 05:16:01 PM »

I found a blog directly dealing with the challenge of converting agriculture to zero fossil fuel inputs.
It is so encouraging to see other people in a similar pursuit of farming in ways that directly address the fact that we feed ourselves with a total dependence on unsustainable energy resources and how we can individually change that paradigm. There really aren’t books to read on the subject and permaculture doesn’t specifically address energy inputs.
 El CID recommended Gabe Browns regenerative farming techniques but they are all very dependent upon conventional fossil fueled equipment . Yes the soil benefits ,and I do respect that soil is a very important consideration, but if those techniques that save the soil need modern fossil fueled tractors I view them as lessons but not solutions. Ultimately farming requires positive cash flow and selling your produce invariably uses conventional transportation, processing and refrigeration. Our cereal crops utilize driers to get moisture content down to where grains can be siloed. Fuel fuel fuel.
 So anyway I am happy to read about someone whose priorities line up with civilizations challenge. How do we feed ourselves in the future. And how do we do that today, with lessons learned.

https://zeroinputagriculture.wordpress.com/2019/09/15/zero-input-agriculture/
 

47

Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1

« on: December 01, 2020, 09:39:47 PM »

El CID, I don’t think regenerative agriculture can do the things it is purported to do. Or not at scale in  areas currently farmed in deserts or areas with marginal rainfall. Take Israel or Calif. for instance. Where does the organic material to build compost at scale come from in desert environs? What happens to soil that is allowed to dry out ? Can we just pour more water on the desert ?
 I have put out a winter cover crop for our rain season every year for twenty years. I had my soil tested this year and both nitrogen and carbon are abysmally low, still. Yes I can grow crops with additions of fertilizer far below commercial recommendations or by buying compost or building some from manures produced on site but my yields are low. I can’t keep the soil wet year round and yes I till my land so I am lucky if I can get cover crops to mitigate part of what is consumed by production. Almost all no till farmers till on occasion.
 There are parts of the world where agriculture is regenerative but I would think that area shrinks every year rather than growing and vast swaths of forest are plowed to make room for more farmland to feed the growing numbers of humans. I would be interested in any population , a small town, a city or a country that feeds its population with regenerative agriculture . If they exist they are likely still farming with preindustrial ag practices . I have looked for farms or communes that have closed food systems that both grow and consume all their own food. There are very few examples. Primitive cultures have a better chance than those of us working ag lands intensively cultivated. That is it is easier to do what is sustainable with land before years of tilling has degraded soil biomes, soil structure and carbon content. Restoration is a long slow process.
 I like examples of working farms doing the right thing. But those places tend to have soils built over the eons by nature as well as adequate rainfall. We wouldn’t be worried about population density if humans had stuck to those places and methods of farming in the first place.

https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/05/regenerative-agriculture-climate-change

 

48

Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1

« on: December 01, 2020, 06:14:08 PM »

So we use Haber-Bosch to create ammonia , which releases lots of CO2, then we transport the resulting fertilizer and spread it with large transport and farming machinery , emitting more CO2, and then till and cultivate the land on a regular basis which degrades the soil biome and releases the soil carbon and results in a reduced capacity of the terrestrial carbon sink. And those processes have enabled humans to far exceed the carrying capacity of the planet even if we weren’t spitting out billions of tons of CO2 for airplanes, automobiles, and heating our homes.
 If there are still places in the world where people have lived for thousands of years without modern agriculture , without tractors, without synthetic fertilizers, and still fed their people then by all means we must convert them to our highly productive farming technologies so they too can become fat and lazy and forget their connection to the other creatures and plants we share the world with.
 Progress

49

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: November 27, 2020, 06:19:36 PM »

I don’t know how bexit affects Covid but it seems rule of law provisos from Brussels are having some pushback by Hungary and Poland on Covid funding ?
 I’d like to hear more on European politics because I am hoping for some diversion from Trump 24 seven.

 https://www.dw.com/en/eu-agrees-to-link-rule-of-law-to-budget-fund-access/a-55512303

El CID ?

50

Consequences / Re: COVID-19

« on: November 24, 2020, 10:36:25 PM »

Walrus, Covid-19 spreads early in the infection cycle and people infected die weeks later. So what does it matter to the corona virus whether we live or die after a prolonged illness ? What matters more is  whether the virus mutates fast enough to evade or deter the efficacy of vaccines or immunity from a prior bout of Covid.