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Messages - aperson

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Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 13, 2020, 09:28:49 AM »
If we put as much effort in greening the economy and creating healthier societies as we put in fighting COVID, the payoffs would be much bigger. So why don't we do it? Why do we focus solely on COVID?

Because the media is running a full-on propaganda operation, without any context or perspective, and that's enough to make people think there is nothing else in the world but this. Social media has compounded the problem. It's the latest chapter in Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.

Today it's COVID-19, tomorrow it will be some other hyped-up crisis that allows for a rapid advancement of bad stuff, enforced by the people itself. That's why I have hardly any hope left for humanity.

But the Austrian TV news yesterday, after its regular daily dose of Twenty Minutes Corona, had a segment on the Arctic. That was awesome.

You seem to be under the mistaken assumption that shock doctrine / disaster capitalism style crisis profiteering requires that the disasters are manufactured. This is not the case, they are glad to profit off of actual disasters as well, as is the case with COVID-19.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 23, 2020, 01:21:47 AM »
To throw some science onto the pile, here is a preprint meta-analysis of IFR estimates:

A systematic review and meta-analysis of published research data on COVID-19 infection-fatality rates

The meta-analysis demonstrated a point-estimate of IFR of 0.75% (0.49-1.01%) with high heterogeneity (p<0.001).


Within distinct study types, there was a difference in the point-estimates for IFR. Published research had  a  much  lower  point-estimate  (modelling:  0.57%,  0.22-0.69%,  observational:  0.46%,  0.14-0.90%) than  pre-prints  (1.06%,  0.81-1.3%),  although  the  lowest  heterogeneity  was  seen  in  the  pre-print research.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 23, 2020, 12:50:22 AM »
What you are doing is simply unscientific. It's just maths.


Does the whole population get the disease, or do some people simply not get it, without their immune system being triggered?

I don't think you understand what the "Infection Fatality Rate" is. If you don't get the disease, you contribute to neither the numerator nor the denominator of the IFR.

All of this aimless conjecture to increase the bounds of uncertainty reeks of the same climate skeptic tactics that get so tiresome to encounter.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 23, 2020, 12:07:12 AM »
As of May 22nd, New York City has posted the following COVID-19 attributed deaths (from

18333 confirmed deaths
4753 probable deaths

The 2019 Census estimate for New York City's population is (from,bronxcountybronxboroughnewyork,kingscountybrooklynboroughnewyork,newyorkcountymanhattanboroughnewyork,queenscountyqueensboroughnewyork,richmondcountystatenislandboroughnewyork/PST045219):


If we assumed that everyone in NYC had been infected and there is no undercounting, this gives an IFR of:

Confirmed Only: 18333 / 8336817 = 0.22%
Confirmed + Probable: (18333 + 4753) / 8336817 = 0.27%

That is the absolute floor for what the IFR could be. Claiming that the IFR is 0.2% or below is complete rubbish when we already have observations demonstrating that it is higher.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 13, 2020, 07:20:31 AM »
Environment Canada's 2020-05-12 18z Analysis put the high at 1043mb and the low at 958mb. An 85mb gradient, impressive!

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 11, 2020, 07:06:04 PM »

The Extraordinary Decisions Facing Italian Doctors

There are now simply too many patients for each one of them to receive adequate care.

The principle they settle upon is utilitarian. “Informed by the principle of maximizing benefits for the largest number,” they suggest that “the allocation criteria need to guarantee that those patients with the highest chance of therapeutic success will retain access to intensive care.”

The authors, who are medical doctors, then deduce a set of concrete recommendations for how to manage these impossible choices, including this: “It may become necessary to establish an age limit for access to intensive care.”

Those who are too old to have a high likelihood of recovery, or who have too low a number of “life-years” left even if they should survive, will be left to die. This sounds cruel, but the alternative, the document argues, is no better. “In case of a total saturation of resources, maintaining the criterion of ‘first come, first served’ would amount to a decision to exclude late-arriving patients from access to intensive care.”

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 11, 2020, 06:48:44 PM »
Here are some threads describing the situation in Italy. Twitter has been an excellent source for getting boots-on-the-ground insight into these sort of situations: (March 9th)

"1/ I may be repeating myself, but I want to fight this sense of security that I see outside of the epicenters, as if nothing was going to happen "here". The media in Europe are reassuring, politicians are reassuring, while there's little to be reassured of.

2/ This is the English translation of a post of another ICU physician in Bergamo, Dr. Daniele Macchini. Read until the end "After much thought about whether and what to write about what is happening to us, I felt that silence was not responsible.

3/ I will therefore try to convey to people far from our reality what we are living in Bergamo in these days of Covid-19 pandemic. I understand the need not to create panic, but when the message of the dangerousness of what is happening does not reach people I shudder.

4/ I myself watched with some amazement the reorganization of the entire hospital in the past week, when our current enemy was still in the shadows: the wards slowly "emptied", elective activitieswere interrupted, intensive care were freed up to create as many beds as possible.

5/ All this rapid transformation brought an atmosphere of silence and surreal emptiness to the corridors of the hospital that we did not yet understand, waiting for a war that was yet to begin and that many (including me) were not so sure would ever come with such ferocity.

6/ I still remember my night call a week ago when I was waiting for the results of a swab. When I think about it, my anxiety over one possible case seems almost ridiculous and unjustified, now that I've seen what's happening. Well, the situation now is dramatic to say the least.

7/ The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. But now that need for beds has arrived in all its drama. One after the other the departments that had been emptied fill up at an impressive pace.

8/ The boards with the names of the patients, of different colours depending on the operating unit, are now all red and instead of surgery you see the diagnosis, which is always the damned same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia.

9/ Now, explain to me which flu virus causes such a rapid drama. [post continues comparing covid19 to flu, link below]. And while there are still people who boast of not being afraid by ignoring directions, protesting because their normal routine is"temporarily" put in crisis,

10/ the epidemiological disaster is taking place. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.

11/ Cases are multiplying, we arrive at a rate of 15-20 admissions per day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the E.R. is collapsing.

12/ Reasons for the access always the same: fever and breathing difficulties, fever and cough, respiratory failure. Radiology reports always the same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia, bilateral interstitial pneumonia, bilateral interstitial pneumonia. All to be hospitalized.

13/ Someone already to be intubated and go to intensive care. For others it's too late... Every ventilator becomes like gold: those in operating theatres that have now suspended their non-urgent activity become intensive care places that did not exist before.

14/ The staff is exhausted. I saw the tiredness on faces that didn't know what it was despite the already exhausting workloads they had. I saw a solidarity of all of us, who never failed to go to our internist colleagues to ask "what can I do for you now?"

15/ Doctors who move beds and transfer patients, who administer therapies instead of nurses. Nurses with tears in their eyes because we can't save everyone, and the vital parameters of several patients at the same time reveal an already marked destiny.

16/ There are no more shifts, no more hours. Social life is suspended for us. We no longer see our families for fear of infecting them. Some of us have already become infected despite the protocols.

17/ Some of our colleagues who are infected also have infected relatives and some of their relatives are already struggling between life and death. So be patient, you can't go to the theatre, museums or the gym. Try to have pity on the myriad of old people you could exterminate.

18/ We just try to make ourselves useful. You should do the same: we influence the life and death of a few dozen people. You with yours, many more. Please share this message. We must spread the word to prevent what is happening here from happening all over Italy."

20/ I finish by saying that I really don't understand this war on panic. The only reason I see is mask shortages, but there's no mask on sale anymore. We don't have a lot of studies, but is it panic really worse than neglect and carelessness during an epidemic of this sort?" (March 9th)

"1/ ‘I feel the pressure to give you a quick personal update about what is happening in Italy, and also give some quick direct advice about what you should do.

2/ First, Lumbardy is the most developed region in Italy and it has a extraordinary good healthcare, I have worked in Italy, UK and Aus and don’t make the mistake to think that what is happening is happening in a 3rd world country.

3/ The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, they are running 200% capacity

4/ We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ITUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of pts with severe resp failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.

5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.

6/ My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on NIV. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.

7/ We have seen the same pattern in different areas a week apart, and there is no reason that in a few weeks it won’t be the same everywhere, this is the pattern:

8/ 1)A few positive cases, first mild measures, people are told to avoid ED but still hang out in groups, everyone says not to panick
2)Some moderate resp failures and a few severe ones that need tube, but regular access to ED is significantly reduced so everything looks great

9/ 3)Tons of patients with moderate resp failure, that overtime deteriorate to saturate ICUs first, then NIVs, then CPAP hoods, then even O2.
4)Staff gets sick so it gets difficult to cover for shifts, mortality spikes also from all other causes that can’t be treated properly.

10/ Everything about how to treat them is online but the only things that will make a difference are: do not be afraid of massively strict measures to keep people safe,

11/ if governments won’t do this at least keep your family safe, your loved ones with history of cancer or diabetes or any transplant will not be tubed if they need it even if they are young. By safe I mean YOU do not attend them and YOU decide who does and YOU teach them how to.

12/ Another typical attitude is read and listen to people saying things like this and think “that’s bad dude” and then go out for dinner because you think you’ll be safe.

13/ We have seen it, you won’t be if you don’t take it seriously. I really hope it won’t be as bad as here but prepare."

And if you need a further visceral experience:

Woman in Italy is stuck with the body of her husband who died from coronavirus

"An Italian woman has been unable to leave her apartment where her husband’s dead body is being kept due to quarantine restrictions, Giancarlo Canepa, mayor of Borghetto Santo Spirito, told CNN Tuesday.

The husband, who had tested positive for coronavirus previously, died Monday at 2 a.m. local time.

“Yes, it is true she is still there with the body and we won’t be able to remove it until Wednesday morning,“ the mayor said. Canepa said quarantine protocol states that no one is allowed to approach the body."

Anyway, El Cid, if you think China is lying about its numbers and there is adequate ER space in Italy, you are delusional.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 01, 2020, 05:13:11 AM »
They are quite simply - wrong. The data is clear. The ~1% rate is based on a series of entirely unproven assumptions. Absent actual evidence regarding those who do not report to hospital - about whether they have been infected or not, and what their outcomes are - the assumption that these exist and do not get sick is pure illusion. It is UNSAFE to assume such is the case, and it amounts to little more than wishful thinking. Wishful thing can and does get real people killed.


Calling epidemiologists "quite simply wrong" is the kind of shit climate science deniers do. Do better. We do have evidence regarding those that do not report to the hospital because we have closed environments like the Diamond Princess Cruise. Or, as an epidemiologist put it: "Not disputing urgent need for serosurveys. But several indicators: cruise ship, Singapore, modelling, phylodynamics all point to proportion of unreported cases around ~50%, so fatality rate ~1%. Serosurveys may give surprising result; but I wouldn’t bank on it."

My naive impression is that we're seeing the beginning of an equable climate forming in the night time tropospheric polar vortex. In general, the shapes sark is showing look like patterns composed of spherical harmonics that are moving from a lower energy state to a higher state. These higher energy states seem to be stable as they increase meridional heat transport and form stable blocking patterns. In essence, once you break out of the lowest level harmonic (a single large tropospheric vortex), you get self reinforcing patterns that let air in and out of the Arctic (configurations with 4, 6, 8, etc... quasi-symmetric nodes).

Of course, this is all conjecture from me as well since I'm not a researcher in this field. But these patterns have jumped out to me as a casual weather watcher as well.

Edit: Maybe Chladni plates provide another example of what these cross-sections look like as they move from lower to higher energy states (in this case, lower hz to higher hz):

Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: October 01, 2019, 09:30:57 PM »
I can see quite clearly that it is not a cause of anxiety and unease.  Sorry, but the climate situation is not the cause of every ill on this planet.

I imagine it's pretty easy to see that when your entire posting career is one Type II error after another.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 16, 2019, 05:39:33 AM »
On the bright side we've now triple-validated our work :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 16, 2019, 05:35:06 AM »
September 15th, 2019:
     4,006,036 km2, a drop of 19,682 km2.
     2019 is now 2nd lowest on record.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 16, 2019, 01:15:41 AM »
It's not a denialist mistake to be wrong. Everybody is wrong sometimes with their predictions. It's just a mistake. What do we call people who voted for BOE option THIS YEAR, during this melting season. Or do you think that was more realistic than weatherdude's prediction. They were just wronglike him. That is it. No conspiracies or hidden meanings behind every false prediction. Some are more realistic, some are less.

Hi colchonero, I agree with you. Regardless, I don't think you understand the context for this specific poster. They post denialist rhetoric on other forums like americanwx and then disappear whenever SIE or SIA goes back to low values. They seem to have registered here to do the same.

I agree with making falsifiable predictions and verifying them, in fact I have one coming up in just a few days that may bust that I will be posting about! It is not his prediction I have a problem with, it is his hubris: "Despite all of the hyperbole and wish casting, 2019 will not be in the top 3 lowest sea ice minimums on record in area or extent."

And note that this is not the first time this specific user has done this on this forum or elsewhere. Without this surrounding context I would have not been so judgmental.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 11:07:43 PM »
He is a denier troll and it was not a risk, it was a lie designed to further obfuscate and derail the discourse on this forum.

Yep, this isn't the only forum he does this garbage on. Unfortunately he made the denialist mistake of making a falsifiable prediction.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 08:12:25 PM »
Hi weatherdude88,

I can't wait to hear your verification summary from this July prediction:

Despite all of the hyperbole and wish casting, 2019 will not be in the top 3 lowest sea ice minimums on record in area or extent. We may not end up in the top 5 in a sea ice area metric (looking at UH AMSR2 and NSIDC daily data and extrapolating).

The regions that will matter at the end of the 2019 melt season are the Central Arctic Basin, East Siberian sea, Beautfort sea, Greenland sea, and Canadian Archipelago.

For the most part, we are lagging the highest melt years in these regions (There are 5 years that lead 2019 in all these areas combined).

There is too much high latitude ice in the critical regions. All the subjective interpretation of data will not translate to reality, no matter how many members reiterate it.

By the end of the first week of August, it will become evident that 2019 will be ordinary, as it relates to sea ice minimums over the last decade.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 07, 2019, 10:00:35 PM »
Would it really be so bad if the trust of the "general public" in the NWS was reduced? In those susceptible to "trust reduction" I would argue that most already do not believe in climate change and are generally egregiously stupid. If they get sucked into a tornado or blown away by a hurricane, what's the loss? I would say it is actually a gain in terms of reducing emissions, ironically the roundabout way of doing this is also the most effective.  :)

You're a bit too high on your own supply of irony here friend. Put it down before you start believing other foolish things like an imminent reglaciation.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 07, 2019, 08:31:26 PM »
I do think this is more than a little overblown.
But I won't get drawn into a debate.
It was stupid. It didn't bring the NOAA to a halt.

I think it's a serious problem because it erodes the public's trust in impact forecasting. Can you imagine how much of a nightmare emergency management & response would be if the populace was as distrusting of the NWS as they were of climate scientists?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 04, 2019, 09:40:55 PM »
I've been watching Lingling and Dorian recently, and I'm interested that they both undergo extratropical transition and integrate their momentum into the jet stream around the same time:

Dorian and Lingling are the symmetrically opposite 968mb lows here. Their angular momentum seems to enhance a dipole pattern, and the timing of their momentum transfer will be critical to how it sets up here. Regardless of the exact configuration, it looks like this will split the initiating tropospheric polar vortex into two lobes and allow a major heat/moisture intrusion from the Pacific

As we enter peak hurricane season, it's important to remember that one of the major heat engines that moves heat from equator to pole are tropical cyclones, so watching their activity will be critical to see how the freezing season initiates (or fails to)

This to me indicates that the melting season is not over yet and way may see losses for the next two weeks. I would be stunned if the AO does not go negative again in the next two weeks, but then again I'm just a naive observer and not a pro meteorologist.

Edit: And after looking at this month's PIOMAS, I really wonder if this will push the Sept 15 update into first place.

Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: June 28, 2019, 11:20:26 PM »
You can't think that you'll be reviled in 50 years if there's no concept of how things might be 50 years in the future.  One has to operate within the reality of the moment.  Do you condemn geologists for talking about the fixed placement of continents prior to Wegener introducing the idea of continental drift in 1912?

There is a difference between scientific fact and moral imperative. I would hope even you are aware that this is an egregious false equivalency.

If you have a basic sense of empathy and compassion you can easily find many things where there is a dissonance between how people act and how people should act. I can spot many things now that are generally acceptable that will likely be seen as taboo in the future: Denying transgender people rights, littering, etc....

I can cultivate compassion and listen to others and spot even more things. I would hope that the leader of our country is a person that does this instead of a means-tested weathervane that naively follows the zeitgeist through bad and good like Joe Biden.

Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: June 28, 2019, 09:35:31 PM »
I suspect many of you, when in your seventies, will be able to look back at things you thought and did when you were much younger and realize that you did not think or do the right thing by current standards.  But at the time that seemed to be the right thing to think or do.

Rather than using this as a rationalization for poor actions, it's a good thought experiment to consider whether what you're doing is truly progressive or not. If you think what you're doing will be reviled in 50 years, maybe try harder?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 20, 2019, 09:08:22 PM »
Just for the record, I was asking a question, not making a point.  Pedantry would imply I was imparting knowledge.  I was seeking it.

Indeed, I am the one being pedantic  :)

Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: June 17, 2019, 11:40:15 PM »
who cares?

The relatives of the ones who die from this do care quite a lot. Not that i know them, but i feel save to assume so.

Pretty sure what kills people is the wet bulb temperature, not the temperature in the sun. All they have to do in the latter is just to seek shade.

While you are "pretty sure", you are not really correct here. To determine heat stroke threat, the NWS uses the Heat Index, which is a regression that includes both temperature and relative humidity. It is distinct from a dewpoint calculation, see:

Hot and dry environments with a suitably high heat index would have a low dew point yet would still present a high heat stroke threat.

Also note that "All they have to do in the latter is just to seek shade" is not very good advice given how rapidly heat exhaustion can present and how much it affects your physical and cognitive abilities.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 17, 2019, 09:44:36 PM »
As a layman, I don't really know what I'm talking about, so maybe someone can help me out. Frivolous, who seems to speak with some amount of authority/expertise, is posting 5-10 day forecasts; how much attention should we pay to those? I know that temp forecasts beyond a few days out are often wildly inaccurate, are long-range MSLP forecasts typically better?

It depends. Typically there is high variability around D5 on operational runs, e.g. GFS and ECMWF. If there is consistency between multiple runs, it may be indicating a pattern that models have higher confidence on appearing.

For anything past D5 we should only be posting ensemble model outputs instead of operational runs, e.g. GEFS and EPS, but we often don't. These ensemble runs are like their operational counterparts, however the initial conditions are modified slightly for each ensemble member to generate a spread of outputs that can better find divergent states or more confidently show that there is convergence on a given single state. The output for things like 500mb heights in ensembles then represents the blended state across all ensemble members rather than the single expected state that one model run sees.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 26, 2019, 02:59:00 AM »
You care more about looking smart than educating people.

You indicated you were an engineer, I gave you a short response that I figured was geared toward an engineer. I will try to provide a better Simple English answer in the future to spare you from throwing a tempter tantrum.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 25, 2019, 08:37:34 PM »
edit: I've just seen the ECMWF forecast and it looks pretty terrible indeed. Anything above 1030 hPa around this time of year, is a disaster for the ice. I'll post the latest forecast this evening.
Can you explain why you say it's bad in reference a pressure? I understand Pa refers to a Pascal. I'm an engineer, and the importance of air pressure rather than temperature is not obvious to me.

High pressure indicates subsidence. This inhibits cloud formation which means that the Arctic regions underneath the high will receive more incoming shortwave radiation.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 26, 2019, 03:12:42 AM »
Oren, if you knew people will read, edit  or censure what you write, would you write the same way? No. Impossible. Censuring your own writing for fear of censorship is probably the quickest way to kill creativity. Elon still enjoys the right to free speech and this tweet did not move the markets in any way.

This tweet was not material information, was after market hours and clarification was offered before  market open. I think he SEC is significantly over reaching. The courts will decide.

Non-public production numbers are material information. The original tweet was made at 7:15PM ET which is 45 minutes before the After-hours market closes.

I understand you like to cheerlead for Tesla. I recommend that you cheerlead by not posting information that is factually incorrect.

The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: November 18, 2018, 01:24:34 AM »
I wish I could spend likes to force another user to cite their claim or make a falsifiable prediction. If they don't provide, they get banned 1 day for every like I spent.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 14, 2018, 12:28:44 AM »
...did you bother reading my post or are you just angry and illiterate?


HB is going to freeze very quickly over the next week, EURO shows most of it falling sub-29/30F through this time. It has taken awhile to get going but my 11/15 prediction for 75%+ coverage (using NATICE) should be off by less than a week which I am not sad about.

Maybe they were referring to your original post:

By 10/25, Foxe Basin should be entirely covered, by 11/15, Hudson should be mostly complete (I will say 75-85% at that point). We can revisit this post 11/16 and see if I am wrong.

You made a falsifiable forecast and it busted. Kudos to you for actually making a falsifiable prediction for once. However, accept your estimation error instead of shifting the goalposts.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: September 27, 2018, 05:41:47 AM »
This seems like the beginning of a repeat of how the DJF trimonth went last year.

1. Low SIE in the Bering/Chukchi seas helps support a Rossby wavetrain that enhances a strong -EPO pattern. The -EPO pattern creates a heat dome over these regions that prevents refreeze and creates a feedback loop.

2. Weak SIE in these regions alongside persistent blocking highs result in more transport of ice into the ESS and a slowing/shutdown of transpolar drift into the Atlantic

3. A lack of ice transported into the Atlantic results in less of a freshwater lens along the Atlantic margin.

4. Atlantification continues deeper into the Atlantic margins of the Arctic as saline water can mix closer to the surface.

Honestly, freezing season is when the Arctic is exciting.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: August 23, 2018, 12:44:36 AM »
You could also take the view that heat out varies with 4th power of temperature and this is a strong negative feedback that dominates the system and tends to prevent run away situations.

Please explain.  I'd say justify too, but I think an explanation would cover that.

(This could explain why we are not Pluto or Venus, but I don't understand it.)

The Stefan-Boltzmann law for black body radiation says that the amount of energy radiated from a black body varies with the 4th power of the surface temperature of the body. If you want to go full Venus, you'll need to add energy at a rate strong enough to dominate this effect, see:

Edit: Thank you Ned for correcting my error.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 05, 2018, 05:45:18 AM »
Those are clouds formed from Lee Waves

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 01, 2018, 11:00:06 PM »
Yearly comparison of HYCOM CICE thickness for July 1st (June 30th on 2017 for the nearest date with data). Click to animate.

The main remarkable feature continues to be the thickness of ice along the Barents sea into the basin proper. The lack of transpolar drift associated with this also appears to be showing up as thicker ice along the Siberian side of the CAB as well. It appears that 2016 shows similar behavior but is less extreme both in terms of where thickness is lost and gained.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 01, 2018, 10:10:36 PM »
Looks like I was right. Thanks for the confirmation!

I hate going OT but this is too clear of an example of confirmation bias to avoid, and it's something we all need to work on here.

You did not make a falsifiable prediction. You implied that the Nares would open at some point soon. Approximately two months later, it did. Was that soon? According to you, it was.

The real issue is that you didn't even bother making a falsifiable prediction in the first place. Whenever you make a prediction, state clearly what success and failure outcomes look like. What is the time frame to "...imminently entail the re-opening of Nares for export"? Is it a day? A month? Some time during the melting season? We'll never know because you never stated the failure criteria for your prediction.

Because you only state the success criteria for your predictions and you hide this success in imprecision, you give yourself a recipe to repeatedly "confirm" your suspicions and lead yourself into chasing down noise.

I'm definitely not an expert in any of the stuff we're discussing here, but I know damn well what a good experiment looks like, and I'm sick of seeing the same cycle of bad hypothesis -> confirmation bias -> worse hypothesis bat deduction going down in this thread.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 23, 2018, 11:52:03 AM »
One part I'd like to know re SMOS data: Is the meltponding appearance in the CAA from actual top melt or from recent rain over the region? It has been raining there, but there was a strong temperature inversion layer with a cool surface. How do we know how much actual melt has occurred there?

Also, midrange forecasting has been pretty useful here. It showed us the Warm Air Advection event from the first cyclone well in advance to form a -DA pattern, and now it's showing us moving into opposite phase with a +DA pattern. That's essentially a forecast for a 1-2 punch to set up proper melt-ponding around the entire Arctic during peak insolation.

From looking at worldview I haven't seen much evidence of bottom melt so far. Most ice that's melted has broken up into smaller floes or has drifted into open water that has had time to warm.

The only notable Sea Surface Salinity event I've seen is that we have Atlantic water intruding farther poleward along Svalbard compared to previous years. Attached is HYCOM Sea Surface Salinity for June 22nd.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: June 21, 2018, 03:25:35 AM »
The image just provided uses Fahrenheit while the one above it uses Celsius.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 14, 2018, 05:28:19 AM »
Much smaller ice-pack bunching up? Yes.
Zero ice-pack anywhere, and just some icebergs distantly floating around? No chance.

Ice-Free in this forum is typically understood to mean < 1 million km^2 of sea ice extent to avoid this sort of semantic debate.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 13, 2018, 05:09:38 AM »
Terra / MODIS Bands 7-2-1 imagery from June 10th to 13th of the East Siberian Sea (ESS) coastline (click to animate. It may load slowly but I think it's instructive to see what sustained insolation and above freezing temperatures due to ice).

I recommend using this band over visible imagery since it makes melt pond intensity much clearer, and it separates clouds from snow better in the melt season since fewer clouds are composed of ice droplets. From the description:

Liquid water on the ground appears very dark since it absorbs in the red and the SWIR. Sediments in water appear dark blue. Ice and snow appear as bright turquoise. Clouds comprised of small water droplets scatter light equally in both the visible and the SWIR and will appear white. These clouds are usually lower to the ground and warmer. High and cold clouds are comprised of ice crystals and will appear turquoise.

In this series of images we can sea rapid snowpack retreat and melt pond formation. I am surprised at the change in albedo over 4 days.

Thankfully differing opinions result in a good ensemble spread of estimates!

A non-ensemble 10 day max provides so little information I'm not sure why the site would offer charts of it. Model biases after 5 days quickly become extreme.

I would stick to ensembles like GEFS or EPS and stick to mean temperatures instead of min or max.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 10, 2018, 03:47:21 AM »
I tried to get information from Worldview but am left guessing here (my fault, not yours).  Can I assume this image shows black-body IR from the Earth?  (I can see from the Worldview scale and the data itself that red values are close to 273K and more orange values represent higher temperatures.  And I can guess strange diagonal lines of discontinuity are results of different passes of the satellite.)  In cloud-free conditions, is this the best method of analysis of temperature?  Is it tricky to interpret?  Are the other surface temperature maps mostly interpolated from this data?  It seems to me that, among many things, this is a great tool to detect ice that is either melting or about to melt. 

Yes, this is using the brightness temperature band from Suomi / VIIRS which uses longwave IR. This will show the cloud top temperature (and by proxy the cloud top height) in cloudy environments, and the surface temperature in cloud free environments.

It is good to see which ice is thinning as well as the surface temperatures of water. For example, the Lena River delta in the above image is extremely warm. In tandem with subgeometer's animation above we can get a qualitative understanding of discharge rate and total thermal energy of the delta.

Suomi / VIIRS and MODIS both perform multiple passes and stitch images together. Discontinuities occur along these lines. However, the IR and True Color imagery should be from essentially the same time on each section, so the overlay should match up with the underlying truecolor rendering.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 10, 2018, 01:58:39 AM »
June 9th with IR overlay from the 272.8-273.4K bucket (-0.35C - 0.25C) to the 292.9-293.5K bucket:

Image link:
Worldview link:

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 09, 2018, 06:59:05 AM »
Lena River delta melt 2018-06-05 to 2018-06-09 (click to animate)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 08, 2018, 10:20:49 PM »
More concern to me is moderate high pressure ridge setting up in the Pacific sector, and the strong import of warm air between the ridge and this low.  I see strong sunshine and surface melting kicking off from Laptev to Chukchi/Beaufort.

Absolutely agreed. There's an extreme amount of warm air advection in this region followed by a stagnant block that will cook the area for week(s).

Here's the entire t=-72,384 run of GFS to hammer the point home. This is going to be disastrous for Siberian permafrost and ice.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 08, 2018, 07:04:36 AM »
Rapid melt at the Gusinaya River delta in the East Siberian Sea.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 08, 2018, 12:36:06 AM »
I think this storm will end up being more than a flash in the pan, some of the main features I'm noticing from it:

- Increased Fram export
- Rapid blueing of ice around the cyclone
- Floes near the cyclone decreasing in surface area
- Substantial rain in different regions of the Arctic for the next week
- Transport of ice into areas along the Alaskan coast with high SSTs

This is compounded by recent runs essentially showing the cyclone zip back across the Arctic in reverse once it runs into a large 5H block near Alaska.

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: June 07, 2018, 04:22:43 AM »
The Harris County Flood Control District report on Harvey was published today. It is available at I highly recommend reading it, it is a wild ride.

Selected Quotes:
60,049 residents were rescued by government resources across all portions of Harris County, most of them from their homes with 32,000-34,000 staying in 65 temporary shelters. Tens of thousands of additional residents were rescued by local civilian resources and help that arrived from around Texas and surrounding states.


It is estimated that over 300,000 vehicles were flooded across Harris County many of which were at homes, parking garages, and dealership lots.

Dr. John Nielson-Gammon examined the largest rainfall events ever recorded in
United States history and compared against Hurricane Harvey for durations of 48, 72, and 120
hours and in spatial coverage of 1,000, 2,000, 5,000, 10,000, 20,000, and 50,000 square miles.
Harvey exceeded the previous records in all of the 18 different combinations except one. The
most astounding statistic is that for the 120 hour duration over 10,000 square miles, Harvey
exceeded the previous record from June 1899 by 13.33 inches or 62%.

Of the 154,170 homes flooded, 48,850 were within the 1% (100-yr) floodplain, 34,970 within the .2% (500-yr) floodplain, and 70,370 were outside of the 1% (100-yr) and .2% (500-yr) floodplains. Of the 154,170 homes flooded, 105,340 or 68% were outside the 1% (100-yr) floodplain.


64% of the homes flooded did not have a flood insurance policy in effect.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 07, 2018, 01:06:19 AM »
GFS joins the Euro on a major rain event (on the order of 1"+ of rain in large swaths) across the CAA in the 5d range. This will be due to moisture / warm air advection from an omega block centered over North America.

We're currently looking at over a week more of conditions that will severely negatively impact the ice, all the way from the kara sea to the ESAS and along the CAA.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 05, 2018, 09:04:33 PM »
12Z ECMWF bottoms out fairly early as well with a minimum SLP of around 970hPa. Given the different location and timing of this cyclone compared to the GAC, I think the effects will be qualitatively different and we will need to hold on any comparisons until reanalysis. However, this setup appears to be catastrophic.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 05, 2018, 07:46:22 PM »
While surface ice has been advected west up the Alaskan coast for months by winds, the silt is just spreading out, indicating no current even at continental shelf depths.

The silt is also accumulating heat rapidly. Above freezing values are shaded in 0.6C increments starting at -0.3C - 0.3C bucket. The hottest regions are currently around 4C. Models are showing ice getting transported into this region in the D4-D8 range due to actions of the upcoming Arctic cyclone.

(June 4th worldview).

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 05, 2018, 08:53:17 AM »
I've been looking for a quick way to validate temperatures from models across the Arctic. VIIRS Brightness Temperature (Band I5, Day) and Night overlays seem to work pretty well. In tandem with using Terra / MODIS Bands 7-2-1 to locate clouds, one can look at the surface temperatures where there are no clouds.

Here is June 4th with the day band overlayed. The lowest shaded bucket is 270.9-271.6K (-2.25C - -1.55C). Above freezing temps occur at the transition to purple and max out at 4.05C.


Here is a link to Worldview which has this overlay specified for VIIRS day and night bands:,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),Coastlines,VIIRS_SNPP_Brightness_Temp_BandI5_Day(opacity=0.67,palette=rainbow_1,min=270.9,271.6,max=276.6,277.2,squash),VIIRS_SNPP_Brightness_Temp_BandI5_Night(hidden,opacity=0.67,palette=rainbow_1,min=270.9,271.6,max=276.6,277.2,squash)&t=2018-06-04-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-2860023.1037379596,-1120673.8055663547,3038216.8962620404,2700894.1944336453

My biggest takeaway is that the open water on the Pacific side is a kill zone for ice that gets transported into it.

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