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Messages - blu_ice

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Based on personal experience snow melt is slow as long as night time temps are below zero and snow cover is fairly thick.

White snow reflects the sun and thick snow keeps itself cold.

Coal is in terminal decline but before declaring peak let's see what happens when economy picks up post-Covid.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 23, 2021, 09:59:54 PM »
Tech stocks are going down the most because they were seriously overvalued.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: January 22, 2021, 04:05:49 PM »
This was textbook trolling.

Instead of Global Surface Air Temperatures people are now discussing whether there is a hiatus or not. Discussion was successfully derailed to a denier talking point.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: January 22, 2021, 10:25:54 AM »
Could we drop the "hiatus" please? Everybody knows global temps are noisy. A new record year is not followed by a record year after a record year, even in a warming world. Variability is not hiatus.

the Us and Europe still talk like they should be aplauded for getting to net zerro by 2050. we need a ban on new ff infrastructure ice vehicles today. net zero by 2030 or 2035 should be our goal.
It should, but it isn't. If net zero goal is placed within a decade, people currently in power would have to make the tough decisions. They don't want to do that.

As net zero goal is placed further into the future, it's all business as usual until the powers-that-be conveniently retire. Technology may reduce some emissions so everybody can pretend things are being done, when in fact nothing isn't.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: January 14, 2021, 10:33:55 AM »
A friendly suggestion: delete all Covid related threads.

The forum is built on topics related to arctic ice, climate and the environment.  We all share interest in those them, as well as somewhat similar worldview.

It should be obvious by now that the good members of the ASIF will never find common ground regarding the pandemic. The endless toxic discussion is destroying the forum.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: December 30, 2020, 03:32:23 PM »
Well, now that they're trialing multiple "vaccines" on the general public, there will be a large enough sample size to determine whether or not any of them are actually effective.

What could go wrong? ;D
They are already approved, not in trial.

And yes, by the time I'm about to receive my dose probably hundreds of millions of people have already received their vaccinations.  That's why risk groups receive their shots first.

IMO the worst thing that can happen is that anti-vaxxer idiots refuse to get vaccinated in such numbers that herd immunity won't be reached and the virus will eventually mutate to a strain that the vaccination doesn't give protection. And the same circus just keeps on going.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: December 30, 2020, 01:59:37 PM »
The new strain is probably all over the place by now. Or will be, because it's even more difficult to stop than the original Covid-19. Which was proven unstoppable.

R0 will be higher than before causing exponential growth. Especially so because it is mid-winter in the NH, prime time for infectious diseases. On the upside, vaccinating risk groups will decrease fatality.

It's starting to look like it's either vaccination or infection for most people.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: December 16, 2020, 10:24:57 AM »
EV advantage is that you can plug it in for the night and wake up every morning with a full "tank".

Low kW charger is enough for this, but the problem is city people need to have chargers on the streets where they park for the night.

High kW chargers are needed on the road for long distance driving. Most people rarely drive long distances, even in sparsely populated countries.

Remember how people were hoarding all sorts of things last spring? Waiting for the global supply chains to fail due to the pandemic? Well it didn't happen then but it is happening now. 

UK is the worst hit country thanks to self-inflicted brexit injury. The nation that invented free trade has to learn it's benefits the hard way.

The rest of the world is not far behind, though. Expect shortages.

Ikea latest firm to suffer shortages and delays due to clogged UK ports
Swedish chain says it is struggling to meet demand and apologises to customers

Zoe Wood and Joanna Partridge

Sat 12 Dec 2020 07.00 GMT

Ikea has become the latest victim of the UK’s gridlocked ports, with the retailer blaming delayed orders and stock shortages on the congestion, which is now also derailing food imports.

The Swedish chain said it was experiencing “operational challenges” as shipments of its flatpack furniture are held up at clogged ports. The hold-ups came as Ikea struggled to meet increased demand for home furnishings, which has soared this year as Britons have switched to homeworking.

Ikea’s social media channels have been besieged by angry customers, venting over late and missing furniture deliveries. The situation was made worse for some by long periods spent on hold to its contact centres.

One customer, Kathy Hall, said she had received her wardrobe doors but was told the frame would not be in stock until February. “If you don’t sort yourselves out and concentrate on giving a good customer service you will be out of business soon,” she tweeted.

The problems at Ikea came as Richard Ballantyne, chief executive of the British Ports Association, said the congestion issues were “cascading” beyond the container ports. He added that delays and queues at lorry ports on the east coast were now increasingly common.

Ballantyne said: “We are seeing a big increase in traffic, which is now cascading across the wider ports industry. This is the result of a perfect storm of a global surge in container movements, the traditionally busy pre-Christmas period and people moving more goods before the UK’s Brexit transition ends. This is putting pressure on the logistics and storage sectors both in the UK and abroad.

Dublin port, the gateway to Ireland’s economy, is also bracing for post-Brexit delays that could cause knock-on hold-ups in UK ports. The director of port operations for Stena, which operates Holyhead port in Wales, has expressed concern that congestion at Dublin will disrupt ferry schedules in Welsh ports, where Ireland-bound trucks face pre-clearance to meet Irish regulations.

Ikea told the Guardian it had been faced with “unprecedented” demand for its products, which include bestselling lines such as the Pax wardrobe and Billy bookcase.

However, the strong sales had come at a time when Ikea’s “supply chain, including the ports and goods terminals where our products are received, has been impacted by Covid-19. Our product availability has been affected as a result,” it said.

Ikea declined to say which ports it relied on but the most congested ports are the container ports of Felixstowe, Southampton and London Gateway, according to the supply chain risk advisory firm Resilience360.

Other retailers are also struggling to get stock into stores in time for the critical Christmas period. Toy stores, stores that sell electrical goods and builders’ merchants have all reported shortages and delays in receiving stock. The delays are also affecting other industries, with Honda forced to halt production at its Swindon plant this week due to a shortage of car parts.

In recent weeks the congestion at container ports has prompted vessels to “cut and run” – either partially unloading or skipping UK calls altogether to offload cargo at mainland European ports such as Antwerp, Rotterdam and Zeebrugge.

Until now the delays have not hit businesses bringing food to the UK but that is changing as goods destined for supermarket shelves end up marooned at foreign ports.

The rerouting of cargo has affected produce suppliers such as Minor, Weir and Willis, which said it had two container loads of ginger stuck in Zeebrugge. They could be driven to the UK within 12 hours but the company told the Grocer magazine that the paperwork could take days, a situation the company described as “maddening”.

Ikea said it was working hard to resolve the stock issues and had hired additional staff on its customer helplines: “These continue to be extraordinary times and we apologise unreservedly for the inconvenience caused to our customers. We fully understand their frustration and want to assure them that we are working intensively to resolve these challenges as soon as possible.”

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: December 14, 2020, 02:59:46 PM »
To improve EV adaptation European cities must build charging infrastructure along streets where people park their cars for the night. I wonder who's gonna pay for that when most people still drive ICEs.

And if those charger spots are for EVs only, where shall all the ICEs go? City parking space is usually in short supply.

Expect lots of heated and emotional arguments.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: November 26, 2020, 10:36:51 AM »
My prediction based on myself alone is that before the end of this decade Russian economy will hit a brick wall because of all the built-in fossil fuel dependency. Oil, their main source of income will be hit particularly hard.

Oil prices may recover post-pandemic but road transportation electrification is already underway. Road transportation consumes appr. 50% of oil globally. Assuming an average 50% decrease in consumption per vehicle per year equates to 25% decrease in global demand for oil. Yes, there will be more vehicles, but OTOH -50% is a rather conservative estimate as BEVs oil consumption is zero. Hybrids also have an effect.

12-15% is consumed by aviation and shipping which is likely to remain more stable. Their consumption is unlikely to grow for many years though, as aviation will have hard time reaching 2019 figures.

Good luck opening Arctic oilfields.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 27, 2020, 10:08:16 AM »


I don't know who prepared this map, but it looks like propaganda. If US and UK  are best prepated, it means that the author likes a specific way of working. I can't believe that Thailand is better prepared than Italy or Belgium.
How things change. It's getting very obvious that Thailand was a lot better prepared than Italy or Belgium.

And US and UK has tought us preparedness doesn't matter if leadership is incompetent.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 23, 2020, 09:59:06 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

On the following days, 2019 is going to have several increases of more than 200K km2. As a result, on October 27th, the year 2016 starts having the lead as the lowest on record.

For 2020 to have a difference of less than one million km2 versus 2016, 2020 needs to have an average increase of more than 112.5K km2 until August 27.

Will 2020 have this average increase? If it does not have it, then on August 27th, the year 2020 will be more than one million km2 lower than any other year on record.
My guess is that on Oct 27th 2020 will have it's biggest lead. If not, this will get very interesting indeed.

Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: October 23, 2020, 09:56:44 AM »
Guys, I feel a strong anything but nuclear attitude here. Even fossil fuels are getting support  :o

3GW of nuclear capacity with 90% capacity factor generates the same amount of electricity than 6GW of wind power with 45% CF. Of these two, only nuclear can reliably produce power at peak demand. Availability has a value also! Scheduled maintenance breaks can be arranged to take place during low demand periods such as summer holidays and maintenance time can be split between reactor units. Wind power on the other hand can vary between 5 and 100 % in a few hours.

Wind and solar can be backed up with battery storage, hydro, fossil fuels and long range transmission lines. All these have a cost which need to be added on the total cost of the energy system. Again, availability has a value. Imported energy needs to be available and it is not guaranteed to be carbon neutral. In fact peak demand power is usually the most carbon intensive because that's when also the high marginal cost fossil plants are needed.

Wishful thinking doesn't change the laws of physics. We can argue about this ad infinitum or we can take a look at what happens in neighbouring Germany. Nuclear power was phased out and Germany is now locked into long term fossil fuel investments and high per capita emissions despite enormous investments in renewables. It's only a matter of perception whether German energy mix is coal and gas supported by renewables or vice versa.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 20, 2020, 03:25:38 PM »

If that "insider" is not aware the there are no concerts or sports events in Sweden (since spring), they don't know anything.

But you just wrote Sweden didn't have restrictive measures in place?

It seems Swedish measures are at least as restrictive than in many other European countries. One could even think the failed herd-immunity strategy has been quietly switched to a suppression strategy.

Consequences / Re: Places becoming more livable
« on: October 20, 2020, 03:15:04 PM »
Climate change is a lose-lose game. Some are just losing more than the others. High latitudes are supposed to be the relative winners.  Unfortunately there may be unforeseen risks due to higher rate of temperature change.

Rapid change means high fluctuation which by itself makes agriculture difficult, even when average conditions would become more favorable.

Then there are the truly black swans. We cannot rule out major geoengineering experiments taking place later this century. In fact they are quite likely, given our inadequate measures to combat climate change. A sudden cooling caused by sunlight blocking particles would be catastrophic at high latitudes.

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 07, 2020, 12:50:22 PM »
Or one step among many. It seems Arctic ice is in terminal decline.

As you pointed out the recovery years are not really recoveries at all.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: October 07, 2020, 10:57:36 AM »
At some point in BEV market penetration the vehicle replacement cycle will speed up. Old ICE cars become undesirable when there is a substantial market for affordable second hand BEVs. ICE cars will obviously decrease in value, but their high fuel and maintenance costs will remain. This means more demand for used BEVs, which increases their prices encouraging BEV drivers to replace their cars with latest models. Rinse and repeat.

Also, petrol aka gasoline is a commodity sold in high volume and with a small margin. Decreasing sales mean increasing marginal cost and higher price on the pump.

Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation
« on: October 05, 2020, 12:15:35 PM »
The last A380 superjumbo has been built.

Sep 25, 2020,12:36pm EDT
The Last A380 Just Rolled Off Airbus’ Production Line. It May Never Fly A Single Passenger.
Eric Tegler

Aerospace & Defense

The last ever Airbus A380 awaits final assembly after rolling off the Airbus production in Toulouse
Airbus completed initial assembly of the last A380, the world’s largest passenger plane, at its production plant in Toulouse, France, on Wednesday. The company has built 242 of the double-decker airliners but the future of the final jet, serial number 272 is uncertain. Will it ever fly passengers?

That’s a question for the airline customer, Airbus says. The last A380 is one of eight that Dubai-based Emirates still has on order. Emirates is the largest operator of A380s with a fleet of 115 in service. Thanks to Covid-19, all but a handful of its current fleet of superjumbos is grounded though the airline did resume A380 service to six destinations - Moscow, Toronto, Cairo, Ghuangzhou, London and Paris - starting in July.

As of August, the number of parked A380s worldwide stood at 204, excluding previously retired jets. There simply isn’t passenger demand for superjumbos or other widebodies though analysts point out that airlines are reluctant to take them off the books now since their retirement would trigger impairment charges.

Since A380s form the backbone of its fleet, that’s a thorny problem for Emirates. However there may be a way to partially get around it. Emirates could cancel its final order for superjumbos.

In May, Bloomberg reported that the Middle East carrier was seeking to cancel five of its last eight A380 deliveries. With the pandemic expected to drag on into 2021 and a full rebound in passenger demand not expected until several years later, Emirates may try to cancel its entire order including the very last A380 built.

I asked Airbus for an interview on the future of superjumbo 272 but the company declined, sending emailed responses instead. The last A380 will stay in Toulouse for production checks, engine installation, systems calibration and a test flight. Next, it will go to Airbus’ Hamburg, Germany facility for cabin installation and full painting in Emirates’ livery. And then?

Emirates said it couldn’t comment on its A380 plans, citing the lack of available spokespeople with the onset of the weekend in Dubai. That leaves 272’s future in question.

Other operators like Air France and Lufthansa have announced the retirement of their A380 fleets, possibly as soon as 2022-23. For carriers like Asiana Airlines, Qatar Airways, Etihad Airways, Malaysia Airlines and Thai International Airways, shrinking or retiring the A380 portions of their fleet looks likely. That leaves only a few including British Airways, Singapore Airlines and Qantas as longer term potential A380 operators.

Even for these airlines, the numbers will have to make sense. Industry analyst Dhierin Bechai points out that the minimum A380 fleet size “for aircraft to benefit from scale advantages and service a route is considered to be six aircraft.”

A380 production began in 2006 after a two-year delay and $25 billion in investment from Airbus. The company anticipated a market for up to 1,200 of its massive airliners capable of carrying up to 853 passengers.

In the years since, Airbus estimates that the global A380 fleet has carried approximately 320 million passengers. But in late 2020 it appears possible that the last superjumbo ever built may never carry even one paying passenger.

*Emirates offered this late-breaking statement regarding the A380:

The Emirates A380 experience remains highly sought after by travelers for its spacious and comfortable cabins. The airline will gradually expand the deployment of this popular aircraft in line with demand and operational approvals.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy Transition and Consumption
« on: October 05, 2020, 10:03:40 AM »

Yes, I did understand your point, but you've ignored mine, and just repeated nonsense.  When it comes to economics, harnessing renewable energy is a matter of producing manufactured goods.

When in human history has any major manufactured good ever shown a pattern of diminishing returns for any extended period of time?    We essentially always see the opposite, economies of scale and efficiencies of production.

You're casting vague dire predictions about a phenomenon that hasn't been observed and is not being observed now.

Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence.  You've provided none.
Do you remember Kodak, diminishing returns usually can't last too long because many costs are not related to the produced volume.
AT&T is also a similar story.
Each time that a technology fades away, you have such a story.
You are talking about technology replacement which is a different issue altogether.

Kodak didn't fail because it's production process started to produce diminishing returns. It failed because there was no longer demand for it's obsolete products. Same has happened to coal, and may very well started to happen to oil as well.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: September 29, 2020, 09:39:04 AM »
No Ralfy, that's not how any of this works.

Commodity prices don't "eventually go up". The real cost of raw materials, minerals or fossil fuels have gone down, not up. The same applies to virtually every commodity people have ever had any use for, from salt and pepper to cotton, timber or coal. Geophysical limitations have been overcome by technology and innovation time and time again.

In fact we've become so efficient in exploiting the material resources of the planet that we are about to destroy it's biosphere while doing so.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: September 25, 2020, 10:05:56 AM »

I'm one of those returners. None of my old posts are deleted. The old account just is labelled "guest".

If you want to take rebirth here: It would be nice to give a hint of your previous existence.
Same here, posts are there and labelled as guest. My former login was bluice

I deleted my account because I wouldn't have had the discipline to stay out otherwise. I wanted to delete my account because I got tired and annoyed about the rants bordering conspiracy theories, often related to Covid threads. Also I spent way too much time on the forum at the time.

I share your opinion about the Russia threads. I honestly think they undermine the credibility of the community here. But at the same time I don't want to complain too much. This is not my forum. If one cannot stand the discussion and moderation it is better to leave than whine.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 23, 2020, 09:06:29 AM »
pps: Please shoot me down if you can. I don't really want to believe NSIDC could get it so wrong.
Is it really bad science or just bad politics?

In a better world, say one without politically motivated science denialism, it would make sense to look at Arctic post-2007 as a separate timeline.

But in the fact-challenged mess we live in this will fuel the denialist camp with another faux hiatus.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy Transition and Consumption
« on: September 22, 2020, 09:23:09 AM »
the waste heat that comes with FF but is not part of renewable energy
Oren, the issue of heat is more complex than simply waste. The largest part of my energy bill, and by a very large margin, goes into heating. Living at 60N is somewhat extreme, but the situation is similar in significant areas of the world such as Europe north of the Alps, large parts of North America and Asia and many mountainous regions. This is even more pronounced when taking into account also the energy used for heating hot water.

It's very easy to make heat by burning something. Lot more difficult by fully electric renewable energy.  It's not deal breaker for RE but a cost and capacity issue nevertheless.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: September 17, 2020, 08:26:06 AM »
My apologies to the good members of this forum for my sudden departure earlier this season. I am sorry for leaving without saying anything. That is not good manners.

I'm not going to dig deeper to the reasons of my exit. I just want to say people delete their accounts when leaving because that's the only way to actually leave. A temporary ban or lockout would be great in that respect.

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