Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - Jacobus

Pages: [1]
1
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: April 14, 2021, 12:08:00 PM »
The general food prices are off topic unless they relate to climate change.

I would disagree. Climate change is one of the factors causing changes in global food supply, and these are the consequences.

2
Pretty large calving as well. What are the beginning and ending dates for the gif?

March 1st and 5th

3
Melting season is starting in Jakobshavn, with both a calving and some clearing of fast ice since March 1st.

4
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« on: February 27, 2021, 06:04:40 AM »
Watch 2020’s Hurricane Season Unfold In a Mesmerizing Four-Minute Timelapse
https://www.theverge.com/2021/2/26/22302913/2020-hurricane-season-storms-nasa-timelapse-noaa

This week, NASA released a grim four-minute timelapse of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, a mesmerizing display of last year’s record-breaking string of tropical commotion.



2020’s season “smashed records with an unprecedented 30 named storms, marking the fifth year in a row with above-average hurricane activity,” NASA said in a blog accompanying the video.

The agency’s Scientific Visualization Studio used a complex algorithm to process and merge hordes of data from an array of weather satellites in orbit, combining it with estimates and observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center and National Hurricane Center.

The product is a fascinating four-minute and 26-second look at last year’s hurricane activity, unfolding in a colorful display of wispy cyclone formations tumbling across the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea.

... “The bar has been raised,” Brian McNoldy, a senior researcher at the University of Miami’s Marine and Atmospheric Science school, tweeted last week. “When we mention the average number of named storms, hurricanes, & major hurricanes, we’re typically referring to a recent 30-year ‘climate normal’. We’ve been using 1981-2010, but now we have 1991-2020, and the counts have increased by 12-19%.”

Last year’s Atlantic hurricane season was the fifth costliest on record, causing roughly $60 billion in economic damage, according to a report from AccuWeather. The most expensive season on record was in 2017, hitting $306.2 billion in costs.

“Climate normals are updated each decade to keep up with a changing climate,” McNoldy said. “What was normal 50 years ago isn’t normal now.”

Hurricane season, June 1st, 2021, is less than 100 days away.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: February 26, 2021, 10:02:11 PM »
I do find it strange that while we all agree that volume is the best measure , we ignore what it says about where we are in the freeze/melt cycle . Peak volume is probably 2 or 3 months away , at which time melt finally exceeds freeze .. Neither melt or freeze are seasonal in that both are always ongoing , unless we have passed the point where that is true , yet twice a year excitement builds . Are the Inuit and the polar bears awaiting the news with bated breath ? AS IF ! :) b.c.

     Friends, Romans, Earthlings: As one who has disparaged Extent as an incomplete, superficial, and highly variable manifestation of Volume, I come here today not to bury Extent but to praise it.

     Yes, we all agree that if the question is how much ASI remains etc., Volume is the best measure.  But a major importance of ASI is its effect on Arcitc albedo and Earth system energy balance.  (That whole bit about white polar caps acting as reflective mirrors, that are turning into dark absorptive open water.)

     So while Extent has its problems (as all the metrics do), it is a way to track the albedo dimension of ASI influence on the climate system.  And Extent has the advantage of being the easiest dimension to directly measure.

     Technically, Area might be a better metric to use for that purpose.  But Area is derived by multiplying average concentration within each grid cell x the Extent, so while Area is more closely associated with the objective (tracking albedo status), that extra layer of abstraction and estimation introduces more error.  At least that's how I understand it.  Someone can correct me if that's wrong.

     Thickness is even more difficult to directly measure than Extent because while we can see the horizontal spread of the ice, it is a lot more difficult to see the vertical dimension.  Thickness is also important on its own because ice of different thicknesses has different qualities with respect to melt rate and mobility.

     Volume is a function of Area and Thickness, so suffers from the estimation error within each of its components.  But if you want to know how much ice there is, Volume is the only measure that describes that.

     The ease of access and direct measurability for each metric decreases with how comprehensive is the information it provides.  It is kind of like renovating a house - you can have Speed, Quality, or Cheap.  But you can't have all three at once, so you have to choose where you are willing to compromise.

     Extent, simply being the outer edge of the ice (>15% concentration), is at first appearance an inadequate way to measure the status of ASI upon which the habitability of our planet depends (a realization which is relatively new to many of us, and which is still unappreciated by too many of us).  But it works well enough, and thanks to JAXA, NSIDC, JCG and Gerontocrat we get daily updates that allow us to monitor the situation with day to day granularity. 

     Thankfully, we also get Area updates, and thanks to PIOMAS, HYCOM, CS2/SMOS, Wipneus etc. we get regular updates on Thickness and Volume as well.  All of which is still amazing to me, having been born before the first grainy B&W picture of Earth from a distance was taken.

     I am frequently struck by the irony that our technical brilliance and ability to monitor and understand our planet advances at a rapid pace, and in a very close race with our irresponsible stewardship and self-defeating carelessness to foul our own nest.  I read shocking venal stupidity from the mouths of politicians on the same day I get to see stunning 4K video from Mars and read about advances in quantum manipulation that reach into the mystical realm.  These are interesting but strange times.  Let's hope the better half of our divided character wins the race.  Turns out our Moms and Dads were right, braun and brains are important, but character matters even more.

6
Consequences / Re: Origins of COVID-19
« on: February 16, 2021, 09:22:29 PM »
Considering how much science-oriented many here are I'm really surprised that no-one ever thought about to correct the thread title.

COronaVirusDesease-19 is the effect/illnes caused by SARS-COrona-Virus-2 and therefore the question would be to ask for the origin of SARS-CoV-2 not CoViD-19.

That's not nitpicking because the correct terms are essential in a discussion to have a chance for decent results. Also it's not only here that flawed terminology makes reasoning difficult, it's just a perfect example to point it out.

Of course one can ask for the origin of CoViD-19 but then the answer is obvious = SARS-CoV-2


 ;)

7
In the US, no one is legally allowed to get evicted for non-payment.  A certain portion of the entire US population is living for free, no rent, no mortgage - free housing.

They say the eviction moratorium is to stop the spread of the virus, but that's a lie.

The real reason is because if they ever lift the moratorium, the 3rd world status of the US will be more obvious.  Massive homeless populations, and massive poverty rates would ensue.


8
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: January 23, 2021, 03:08:47 AM »

https://phys.org/news/2021-01-climate-carbon-trends-million-years.html
  It's not current news being from 2006, but it's still a lovely picture.

9
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: January 20, 2021, 06:47:29 PM »
Claims to be not a denier.
Cherry picks one outlaying data set.
Only UHA gives 0.14.
All the others give 0.19C a decade or more.
https://skepticalscience.com/trend.php
Still claims we can have a hiatus in warming by looking at  noise.
It is the trend stupid .
Global warming  is the long term trend not the yearly weather fluctuations.

10
So, again, W is spreading dangerous lies about life-and-death issues on this forum.

At some point (like...already) it becomes the forums moral responsibility not to be party to the spreading of dangerous lives in the midst of a global pandemic, just as it does so well (usually) in keeping climate denialism off of its threads.

(Note also that his source does not have the best reputation in the publishing world--see this among other damning reviews cited from wiki:

Quote
According to Allison and James Kaufman in the 2018 book Pseudoscience: The Conspiracy Against Science, "Frontiers has used an in-house journals management software that does not give reviewers the option to recommend the rejection of manuscripts" and that the "system is setup to make it almost impossible to reject papers".

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 03, 2021, 04:37:25 PM »
Hi Gero.

I think that these numbers need to be changed to 2021...

NSIDC Total AREA as at 02-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,070,767 KM2         
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 17 k, 32 k less than the 2010's average gain of 49 k         
         
- 2020 2021 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 2021 ...         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 26 k, 24 k less than the 2010's average gain of 50k         
         
- 2020 2021 EXTENT is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 2021 ...   

P.S. People that do nothing, they do not make mistakes. Thank you for all the work that you do!
And thanks to everyone that participates! We have the best internet Arctic sea ice forum here!

Happy new year!   ;)

12
covid and the lockdowns are responsible for 0% of hunger and poverty.

it is blindingly obvious to anyone who doesn't have their eyes rigidly shut that poverty comes from people not having money. And people not having money is because other people have nearly all the money (and power).

I'm sure all posters who express great dismay about hunger and poverty will join me in calling for an immediate redistribution of wealth, so that the richest 1% no longer owns as much as, or more than, the entire middle class (not to mention everyone else!) :)

13
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: December 07, 2020, 05:24:26 PM »
A healthy reminder for the USA folks on basic Human Rights. Will Biden+Neera Tanden revert this calamity and also give Healthcare To All?

14
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: December 07, 2020, 03:46:51 PM »
Giant Vertical Farm Opens In Denmark
https://techxplore.com/news/2020-12-giant-vertical-farm-denmark.html



Fourteen layers of racks soar from floor to ceiling in this massive, 7,000-square-metre (75,350-square-foot) hangar used by Danish start-up Nordic Harvest.

https://www.nordicharvest.com/

The produce grown here will be harvested 15 times a year, despite never seeing soil or daylight. It is lit up around the clock by 20,000 specialised LED lightbulbs.

In this futuristic farm, little robots deliver trays of seeds from aisle to aisle.



Some 200 tonnes of produce are due to be harvested in the first quarter of 2021, and almost 1,000 tonnes annually when the farm is running at full capacity by the end of 2021, explains Anders Riemann, founder and chief executive of Nordic Harvest.

The farm uses one litre of water per kilogramme of produce, or 40 times less than underground farms and 250 times less than in fields, he says.

That would make the Taastrup warehouse one of Europe's biggest vertical farms.

In Denmark, a world leader in wind farms, about 40 percent of electricity consumption is wind-based. ... "In our case, we use 100 percent energy from windmills which makes us CO2-neutral," Anders Riemann, founder and chief executive of Nordic Harvest explained.

----------------------------------------------------

15
I'll let SH or someone else knowledgeable about the minutia of these things go into the details if they have the stomach for it.

Have an Economics degree and MBA from the University of Chicago and simply do not have the inclination to engage. It is a waste of energy.

Spending time talking to this individual would make me stupider as a result.


16
Rodius, we are wrong.  The stock market is the economy.  Has been since the current market system began.  The economy has never deviated from the market - ever.  There have always been winners and losers, people at the top and bottom, from the beginning of time.  The difference between today and previous systems is that there exist a large portion in the middle.  They will be rich always and the poor will always be with us.  Someone much wiser than me once said that.

Christ almighty! The stupid hurts. Remind me to not take any investment advice from you.

Exactly.

An example of how ridiculous the stock market situation is.

About 10 years ago a whole bunch of companies listed on the stock exchange used financial products so badly that is brought the global economy to its knees.
What exactly did they contribute to the economy?
Well, the contributed debt products that destroyed the ability of people to spend their money. When their financial products, which contributed nothing at all to the true economy, failed, we were told they were too big to fail (this is in spite of the US motto of survival of the fittest... if this were true, they would have been allowed to die their natural and deserved deaths) and they were saved using tax payer money. Tax money that came from workers and small businesses who were left to fail and die.

The economy propped up a bunch of thieves.
And to top it off, they got bonuses and have done it again.
No jail time was to be had, no punishments were made, they got bailed out because of the myth that if they failed, the stock market would truly crash and it would be bad.... for rich people.

So the poor working class bailed them out via the Govt who are meant to represent their interests.

If those companies were left to die their deserved death, the gaps they left would have been filled by companies who didn't make bullshit financial products, tax payer money that was spent propping up thieves could have been given back to tax paying workers who would have spent it in companies in the economy who actually make things and provide serves that employ a lot of people.

And today, with the added complexity of a virus that will ravage its way through people and the economy, the same situation is in place with stock market companies producing more bullshit products that contribute nothing to the actual economy.... and they do it because they believe that when the shit hits the fan again, they will still make money from the situation.
Why wouldn't the stock market go up when they have a govt who is always prepared to save their miserable asses?

Covid is being used as yet another means to gather in power and wealth to even more extreme levels at the expense of peoples life's, shelter, food and well being.
This has happened so many times throughout history as to be cliche.... and when the people get sick of it enough, and I suspect it is getting closer by the week, they will rise up against those in power and reset the balance.

I am sure there are examples of this happening without bloodshed and misery, but they are the exceptions, not the rule.

Covid, while bad enough, is not the biggest problem in the US or the world, but it sure as hell is the spark that will light the firestorm.

The concentration of wealth in 2020 has worsened because of the actions of wealthy and powerful people and Covid is the screen that has been used to do it.
It wont last.
People in the US are getting hungry, shelter is uncertain, and the rich get richer...... seriously, it is cliche and this is yet another thing that baffles me concerning those in power.... surely they know that it is better to give more back and keep their stupid wealth and power intact than to keep taking until there is a revolution?

The stock market is unrelated to the real economy. It is just a wealth creating project for the already rich.


17
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 23, 2020, 05:09:11 PM »
Crandles,
Our COVID is special (on this side of the Pond) in that it only affects losers, so it's okay.  That's what the President seems to say, anyway, and he should know - note how many in the White House have/had it.
[If you think this post is political, it'll be news to me.]
:)

18
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 16, 2020, 07:50:57 PM »
SARS-CoV-2 Exits Cells Via Lysosomes

A study finds that β-coronaviruses don’t use the normal secretory pathway, a possible explanation for some aspects of COVID-19 pathology.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/sars-cov-2-exits-cells-via-lysosomes-68153

19
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 12, 2020, 04:48:23 PM »
^^
For future reference:
Disastrously high
Cataclysmically high
Catastrophically high
Apocalyptically high

20
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 06, 2020, 07:12:04 PM »
It's almost like it wasn't a good idea to keep 17 million minks in cages for the sole purpose of the fashion industry.


21
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 17, 2020, 06:00:03 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 16th, 2020:
     4,928,965 km2, a drop of -9,602 km2:o
     2020 is the lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted the 5 years with a daily lowest min in September. In million km2:
     [ 1) 2012: 3.18,  2) 2020: 3.55,  3) 2019: 3.96,  4) 2016: 4.02  &  5) 2007: 4.07 ].
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

22
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: October 05, 2020, 04:30:42 PM »
I don’t know, Tor, what does make you think that?
For all those decades both statistics were near zero, and then both start rising sharply just a few years ago.
That is an observation just looking at the graphs.
What’s political about that?

23
Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: September 18, 2020, 07:57:38 PM »
As with ESAS methane, nobody wants to hear about albedo, better to err on the side of least drama, hundreds of examples documented by AbruptSLR on that forum.

Thanks.

People are also not that into real simple climate science.

Paris agreement. We keep under some ´safe´ 2C level.
Safe is not actually defined so lets substitute the usual climate tipping points. Keeping the permafrost a sink has failed. Saving the arctic ice has failed. Not triggering Antarctica too etc.
And that is with current temps.

The Arctic ices ´old ice skeleton´ is clearly failing so next year might be even worse in the Central Arctic. I think this region is more vulnerable then people usually argue so we might see unprecedented losses there soon (this decade) and then we will see what Earth calculates for the budget and what the actual knock on effects are.

24
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: September 18, 2020, 06:29:46 PM »
For decades David Attenborough delighted millions with tales of life on Earth. But now the broadcaster wants us to face up to the state of the planet
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/18/dont-look-away-now-are-viewers-finally-ready-for-the-truth-about-nature-aoe
  by Patrick Greenfield

&

(51m44)

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: September 12, 2020, 12:36:46 AM »
Mosaic posted a beautiful photo of the new mooring site taken by a small drone on Sunday 06 Sept 2020. Since the Polarstern is 180m in length bow to stern, a grid of those specs can be put over the image to establish a distance scale of 2 pixels per meter.

However the drone was not directly overhead at the time of the photo because the more of the port than starboard side is shown (assuming the smokestack is centered amidship). As usual, all the Exif data has been stripped off the photo: we do not know time of day (sun angle), direction of north, nor height of the drone, nor nadir inclination of the camera.

The location of the Polarstern varied quite a bit that day, ranging from 88.7-8º  113.5-119.0º, so the lat lon at the time of the photo can only be estimated.

Consequently it is not possibly to orthorectify the photo for purposes of measure percent of melt pond area, leads and so forth. They've used Sentinel-2 in past months but that requires fog- and cloud-free conditions and decent sunlight at the time of overpass.

The new road system is visible but just barely. It heads out to 3-4 unlabelled gear depots where oceanographic and meteorological measurements are made. Some sites can be related to earlier ground-level scenes of sampling.

A curious feature of the photo: a swath 600 x 100 m just 'north' of the ship appears to show recent snow covering recently frozen melt ponds. The latter are visible after contrast enhancement. After that correction, the melt pond size and distribution appear fairly homogenous. They are in all stages of drainage and connectivity, well indicated by shades of blue. Black leads of open water and shattered ice cannot be interpreted without knowing how the ship approached the mooring site.

Mosaic's science communication through the ages:
Quote
Goethe 1774: Misunderstandings and lethargy perhaps produce more wrong in the world than deceit and malice do. At least the latter two are certainly rarer.

Heinlein 1941 "You have attributed conditions to villainy that simply result from stupidity."

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 11, 2020, 05:25:02 AM »
I ask that you indulge my bathymetry-and-ice-distribution fixation one more time.  This gif is from images on the oden site.  I was not able to get images for the same date each year, so the images are from a day from each year during the first two weeks of September, showing the approximate ice extent minimum.  The thing that jumps out here for me is how different this year is from all the others in terms of the Atlantic front, as others have noted.  2020 melt has advanced into the deep basin of the Arctic Ocean in a manner that seems qualitatively different...   Retreating halocline?  Source: https://oden.geo.su.se/map/    Maps only go back to 2014, so no 2012.

Large gif.  Click to animate.  3 secs+ per image, a bit slow so features can be observed.


27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 07, 2020, 07:59:43 PM »
It's 'old news' now, but Jim Petit's gaph/table of NSIDC extent was finally updated.  This is only the 2nd year with a 'permanent' orange band (under 4M km2) [Click on URL for current image.]
Image URL sometimes isn't as current as the actual image, for some reason: image at http://iwantsomeproof.com/extimg/sie_nsidc_max_min_plus_step_days.png

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 01, 2020, 05:31:54 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 31st, 2020:
     3,943,313 km2, a drop of -51,770 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. 2020 became the second lowest minimum on record today. There are still about two weeks left until the 2020 melting season ends.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: August 23, 2020, 01:45:36 PM »
Thanks for the level headed reply A-Team. Next time I will do some more research first, and I should probably just ignore posts by <another user> I find derailing.

<Edited said user name. O>
Well, said user is of the opinion that if you condescend, then you must expect to be derailed.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 23, 2020, 04:07:16 AM »
Most contributors choose to remain anonymous.  There's nothing wrong with that, and it may be prudent, in many cases.

Announcing to the whole Forum that you want to know the identity of another participant is inappropriate.  in my view, it's grounds for banishment.  But I'm not in charge here. 

<Removed all personal references. O>

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 22, 2020, 11:31:48 PM »
Thanks for the feedback all.

Thoughts on this version?

32
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 22, 2020, 12:14:04 AM »
Genomic Analysis Reveals Many Animal Species May Be Vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2 Infection
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-genomic-analysis-reveals-animal-species.html



Humans are not the only species facing a potential threat from SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19, according to a new study from the University of California, Davis.

"Broad host range of SARS-CoV-2 predicted by comparative and structural analysis of ACE2 in vertebrates," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2020).
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/08/20/2010146117

33
Hi Jim , I'm battered but unbruised , Roof remains .. catching up on lost sleep.. :) b.c.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 07:17:43 PM »
Well Friv, 3rd was always, and still is a much better chance than getting down to 2-2.5m.

NO, as I said, 1 more like this and we are close to second even in the best year for the ice and then conditions are as far away from that could happen as it can get for now.

So it's a simple NO without having to get out on a limb.

<Removed personal stuff. O>

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: August 19, 2020, 12:18:17 AM »
Wadhams has been thinking the ice was due to vanish in 2015 since 2012 and has been ignoring data since 2012 in order to keep thinking that way. Maybe its because his expertise is in old ice, and the old ice has virtually all gone and he can't bring himself to understand an Arctic where the ice has a 2 year lifespan rather than the 10 year lifespan of the ice in the Arctic he studied.

Probably Wadhams is right, after all. The Arctic is already unrecognizable for those who loved it 40/30/20 years ago. Maybe the BOE we are all waiting for to happen in the near future, has just occurred under our deceived eyes. And what we are witnessing right now, is just the destroyed ice world shedding its last spoils.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: Updating the ASIG
« on: August 15, 2020, 04:26:38 PM »
I apologize for being so late with updating the SIC maps. I always tend to procrastinate when it comes to tedious jobs. But it's all updated now, all the way to end of November.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 09, 2020, 06:26:45 PM »
I think someone fell flat on the face and is bleeding out now... DIAL 911!!!  ;D

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 05, 2020, 05:52:53 PM »
  .. or not ! .. I've got things covered .. I offered to cover Gero in circumstances like this a year or 2 ago so now i am .. however I'm delighted to see community in action .. b.c.

39
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 03, 2020, 10:19:52 PM »
To all the anti-vax, anti-mask, anti-everything people, this is the logical conclusion of “freedom”.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 07:02:21 AM »
July 1-31 (fast).

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: Off Topic
« on: July 28, 2020, 06:06:27 PM »
A little about bathymetry and atlantification, not enough for a thread, and don't want to affect popcorn eaters on ms thread.The tides will build from today towards 03:08 but due to the low by the Faroes there's been a decent amount of Atl. waters forced north, we have a high by Kara so only the most energetic fraction will penetrate to St. Anna trough, which implies a fair bit of forcing through Fram. The Pacific side had a persistent high for long enough to evacuate maybe 20+cms of water and now a deep low is there calling all that back and more. The persistent high forced a current to establish flowing away from it towards Lomonosov that drew in Pacific waters in it's wake and the hole [in the ice cover] north of Wrangel is where this current naturally falls into the deep and by coincidence it's right by a 'pinch point' of steeper slope where the Atl. waters that have made their way around the basins detatch, maybe due to loss of inertia maybe too saline[?]. Each current will accelerate the other so are likely to persist.
The incoming through Fram will seperate according to it's energetic state, that with the most inertia will drive along the Barents shelf and here it will generate vortices which stretch vertically causing melt above and small waves below in passing. Less energetic waters will be drawn across to Greenland and Ellesmere being the easiest means by which to resupply the Pacific side and here too as it passes it'll cause vortices as it holds fast to the shelf north of Greenland/ Ellesmere if not clearing the shelf then not allowing anything to settle.
Pessimistically it seems to mean up to 45cms of water will be drawn in from the Atl. and Pac and since these flows are pulsed with the tides then the extra movement around the Basins, before waves and wind are considered, is going to 'lubricate' the rotation of the 'pack'.
Already we see that surface ice is moving towards the low rather than being dispersed.
Other 'pinch points' exist the first in the rotation being directly after Laptev, spinning water off to the far side of Lomonosov the next at approx. 160E, other things to note is the emerging divide above Gakel ridge by Laptev and that as shown by Mercator the vorticiity is not confined to the shelf side of Amundsen/Nansen.
This much forcing followed by it's opposite is going to accelerate the exchange of Atl. and Arctic waters


42
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 27, 2020, 08:01:46 AM »
Trump owes the world suicide.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 24, 2020, 11:57:39 PM »
Can people please just wait for JCG and Gerontocrat to do their things. It is always funny watching people try to jockey for the honorable position of daily data updater.

As long as users post data ir's ok. Maybe not always useful but no harm. Thanks to all who make the effort.

JAXA Extent -Comparisons with other years

With Juan having a bit of a rest (I hope - he certainly deserves one**) while others take up the slack, I attach my not-as-good-as-Juan's table of variations of Jaxa extent c.f. previous years from 2000.

I also attach another not-as-good-as-Juan's table, this one showing extent on this day c.f. previous years MINIMA from 2000. As extent diminishes 2020 will slide down the table.
___________________________________________
** Juan can't go to bed until the JAXA data arrives, and sometimes it doesn't..
Me, I can yawn, scratch my arse, get up, have a coffee or 3 and only then wake my laptop up.

Thank you all for your comments. The true is that it is hard to be the one that has the job to post 10 or 15 minutes after ADS makes public their data. Sometimes I want to go to bed earlier and sometimes I am doing other stuff and I have to leave it, just because it is the time to post. So, sometimes I just want to skip the post.

Yesterday I was watching Netflix with my wife and I have to stop watching, to make the post 15 minutes later than usual. In a way, it was a relief to saw the posts of Frivolousz21 and MrGreeny (*). I decided to return to watch TV. I think there is not harm if I don't post every single day.

So, thank you, Frivolousz21 and MrGreeny.

I understand the excitement that we have now, with all the records that are being broken. I share this excitement, so, as it is said on boxing, I am not throwing the towel. I will look to continue posting.

If I haven't made the post in 15 minutes after the JAXA data has been released, please feel free to make the post.
 
________________________
(*) P.S. A great relief that there was not a century drop...  :)

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 08:22:43 AM »
Here is the next 3 days on the 00Z euro.  The ESS , part of the Chuchki, far far Northern Laptev, and the central Arctic basin is truly going to get decimated by this.

Concentration is going to straight
Plummet. 

Area will have a mini cliff.

Extent will continue to drop.

I AM ALMOST ASHAMED AT HOW EXCITED I AM ABOUT THIS.  WE ARE WITNESSING EPIC HISTORY IN REAL TIME!!!!


45
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 18, 2020, 07:15:28 PM »
Apologies if someone already mentioned it, but I thought it worth noting that the sea ice extent as measured by NSIDC on July 17th (6.954 million km2) is already lower than the September minimum extents from 1980 (7.533), 1982 (7.16), 1983 (7.204), 1986 (7.122), 1988 (7.048), 1992 (7.159), and 1996 (7.147).

46
Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: July 17, 2020, 08:56:50 PM »
Wind farms can't make wind farms. A drilled oil field can provide enough energy to drill a new field (or make a wind farm). Basically the energy comes from fossil fuels originally. If the energy is used to build a solar panel rather than spin a turbine, maybe it is more efficient, but the foundation is always fossil fuel energy.

Industry relies are fossil fuels. Manufacturing, mining, and practically everything else can't be run on wind or solar. These renewables are great at providing addition electricity to a grid that has a base load maintained on fossil fuels. This is the lowest of the low hanging fruit. And we are barely succeeding at that.

The transition will always seem to be at hand in the next decade or two. But it will never happen (until society collapses). It is impossible.

47
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 17, 2020, 08:14:17 PM »
Military Medics Deploy in California, Texas as Virus Surges
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/military-medics-deploy-california-texas-virus-surges-200717154400390.html

Teams of military medics were deployed in Texas and California to help hospitals deluged by coronavirus patients, as Miami area authorities on Friday began stepping up enforcement of a mask requirement - echoing efforts in many parts of the world to contain surging infections.

In California, military doctors, nurses and other healthcare specialists were being deployed to eight hospitals facing staffing shortages amid record-breaking case numbers. In Houston, an 86-person army medical team worked to take over a wing of United Memorial Medical Center.

There were signs elsewhere in the country's Sunbelt that the virus was stretching states' capacity to respond. The medical examiner's office in metro Phoenix has gotten portable storage coolers and ordered more to handle an influx of bodies - reminiscent of New York City at the height of the pandemic there earlier this year.

In Florida's Miami-Dade County, the county commission unanimously approved an emergency order giving all code and fire inspectors authority to issue tickets of up to $100 for individuals and $500 for businesses not complying with guidelines to wear masks and practice social distancing. Police officers already had this enforcement power.

---------------------------------

US Military Arrives at Eisenhower Health in Rancho Mirage Amid Hospital's Staffing Shortage
https://abc7.com/eisenhower-health-rancho-mirage-hospital-us-army-doctors-riverside-county-coronavirus/6321377/

... Dr. Alan Williamson, the hospital's chief medical officer and vice president of medical affairs, told ABC News earlier this week they're "close" to a breaking point.

As of late Thursday night, the intensive care unit was at capacity.

----------------------------------

White House Document Shows 18 States in Coronavirus "Red Zone"
https://publicintegrity.org/health/coronavirus-and-inequality/exclusive-white-house-document-shows-18-states-in-coronavirus-red-zone-covid-19/

A document prepared for the White House Coronavirus Task Force but not publicized suggests more than a dozen states should revert to more stringent protective measures, limiting social gatherings to 10 people or fewer, closing bars and gyms and asking residents to wear masks at all times.

The document, dated July 14 and obtained by the Center for Public Integrity, says 18 states are in the “red zone” for COVID-19 cases, meaning they had more than 100 new cases per 100,000 population last week. Eleven states are in the “red zone” for test positivity, meaning more than 10 percent of diagnostic test results came back positive.

The following 18 states are in the red zone for cases: Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Utah.

The document has been shared within the federal government but does not appear to be posted publicly.

Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, said he thought the information and recommendations were mostly good.

“The fact that it’s not public makes no sense to me,” Jha said Thursday. “Why are we hiding this information from the American people? This should be published and updated every day.”

... In May, the World Health Organization recommended that governments make sure test positivity rates were at 5 percent or lower for 14 days before reopening. A COVID-19 tracker from Johns Hopkins University shows that 33 states were above that recommended positivity as of July 16.

---------------------------



----------------------------

Faced With Second Wave, Europe Tightens Virus Measures
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-europe-tightens-virus.html

Here is an overview of recent developments in each individual country, which include localised lockdowns and the obligation to wear face masks among others: ...


48
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 17, 2020, 10:14:32 AM »
Force Trump to fire him

I think you are being unfair, Archimid.

Ask yourself the question if you want Fauci or a random trump goon in this position. Because this is the alternative.

Trump turns everything he touches into brown stinking liquid shit. This is a trump problem, not a scientist problem. Please don't fall into this trap.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 06:15:14 AM »
My bad on implying I would walk away from the forum over what I take as deliberate ignorance or you could call it deliberate misdirection.

I only meant that I'm not going to engage in the nonsense that seems to seep out of ideology being crushed


Anyways...


From the other thread.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 16th, 2020:
     6,820,565 km2, a century drop of -145,352 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Now 420,000km2 below #2 and roughly 600,000km2 below the average of the worst years.

Truly amazing.


The BIG QUESTION IS BECOMING....

HOW MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CAB MELTS OUT THIS SUMMER??

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 05:50:46 AM »
To Friv, and all, please don't be frustrated by some dissenting voices here. Part of the forum is about educating less knowledgeable folks, who sometimes make ignorant comments. These do not dominate the conversation, though they can piss off sometimes.

I will take the feedback to heart though, and from now on I will try to moderate and edit more heavily claims that are in contradiction to common knowledge and established ice science (as far as my limited knowledge allows). Ignorant and insistent posters will have to suck it up or take the arguments to less popular threads.

This is certainly an unprecedented melting season, and the damage done will manifest itself even more in the next two months. Stick around! You won't be sorry.

Pages: [1]