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1
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Last post by NeilT on Today at 10:44:12 PM »
Some interesting things to watch on the Tesla Q1 financial call.

I noticed that the gross margin for Q4 2020 was lower than Q3, even though they sold more S/X models in Q4 than in Q3.  This probably means the model 3 coming out of China (and likely the Y), are higher margin than the S/X.

Tesla sold 3,822 more models S/X than they made in 2020.  Yet managed to sell another 2k or so in Q1 2021.  I assume the old models are all cleaned out now.

It is likely that the Shanghai Models 3/Y made a larger proportion of the Models 3/Y sold in Q1 21 than in Q4 20.  If the gross margin is higher, then it should mean more GAAP profit.

Whichever way it goes it will make an interesting read and should set the scene for margin and profits going forward in 2021.

I'm assuming they will also recognise some more FSD cash with the release of the FSD beta to a selected group of owners.

Beyond that, Energy will be worth tracking.
2
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« Last post by Jim Hunt on Today at 10:43:41 PM »
I'm outta here. folks.

Cheerio Thomas.
3
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« Last post by Shared Humanity on Today at 10:39:53 PM »
You do know people can get covid twice right?  I personally know several people who have had it twice.

You, of course, are not suggesting that all Belgians have been infected and 3 million have been infected a 2nd time?

I suppose it could be that 7 million have been infected and then infected a 2nd time.
4
Policy and solutions / Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Last post by NeilT on Today at 10:35:18 PM »
Meanwhile NVIDIA have unveiled their Drive Atlan chip concept, due in 2025 and with 1,000 tops.

https://electronics360.globalspec.com/article/16583/nvidia-unveils-new-ai-processor-for-self-driving-cars

Nobody is talking about how much power it will draw but with a data throughput of 400mbits/s and the ability to host dozens of input devices, I doubt it will be low.

Also Nvidia is delving into heavy duty AI training including self drive AI training.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davealtavilla/2021/04/12/nvidia-unveils-powerful-grace-ai-supercomputing-cpu-and-atlan-secure-autonomous-vehicle-platform/?sh=6310eefc5d15

5
Policy and solutions / Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Last post by NeilT on Today at 10:23:45 PM »
And, of course, new entrants know who the competition is.

Quote
Huawei’s autonomous-driving technology has already beaten Tesla’s in some domains by enabling cars to independently cruise for over 1,000 kilometers (621 miles), as per Rotating Chairman Eric Xu.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/huawei-targets-over-1b-self-161517027.html
6
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« Last post by John Batteen on Today at 10:22:00 PM »
You do know people can get covid twice right?  I personally know several people who have had it twice.
7
Policy and solutions / Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Last post by NeilT on Today at 10:20:59 PM »
I was looking at the article on the future of Waymo with the new co-CEO's.  I was interested in one of the pictures.

It is clear that the Waymo vehicle is using extensive pre mapped data to project a very clear picture of where it is.  It recognises certain types of vehicles and obstacles but, really, doesn't see very much at all.

There has already been one cross map of FSD images on the road video.

Also the article talks about AI and the need for deep AI skills then it says.

Quote
The AI technology is not ready, and despite the lidar, radar, and other sensor technologies used to complement deep learning models, self-driving cars still can’t handle unknown conditions in the same way as humans do. They can run thousands of miles without making errors, but they might suddenly make very dumb and dangerous mistakes when they face corner cases, such as an overturned truck on the highway or a fire truck parked at the wrong angle.

https://bdtechtalks.com/2021/04/08/waymo-ceo-reshuffling-self-driving-car-industry/
8
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« Last post by Thomas Barlow on Today at 10:16:01 PM »
TB

In your simple calculations, in each case you are assuming that all of the elderly have contracted COVID. ??

By the standards of those tests, and by expert opinion as I already posted, yes, 100s of millions of people have fought off covid-19 in the USA. Most will not even have noticed according to the studies I posted earlier. Most will have had none, to very mild, symptoms. That includes elderly. There is a 91% to 95% survival-rate among the over 65s. Most just brush it off without ruffling a feather.
(but don't tell that to the vampire-profiteers, Pfizer)

The Ioannidis studies have a range to them, up to 1.6% in some regions - eg. In the regions with the polluted/toxified characteristics I just explained in the previous reply: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2996.msg305627.html#msg305627

450,000 deaths = 1.6% of 1/2 of the elderly (over-65) in the USA. So, yes, probably more than 1/2 of the elderly have been exposed to covid-19 according to the studies. Many instances have shown that you just can't avoid covid-19, even if you are on a ship, with everyone tested beforehand, everything sanitised, a month at sea. Or in an Antarctic research station. Our own state medical expert for covid-19 said last year “We just can’t keep covid-19 out of nursing homes” , and he was referring to the whole USA (and therefore, same for all elderly. Can't fully protect them from it). So yes, far more than 1/2 the elderly have been exposed to covid-19, and the ratios seen in the Ioannidis study appear to be spot on.

I'm outta here. folks.
Let me know when you realise covid-19 is a very weak virus, in an ageing, polluted/toxified population.

9
Policy and solutions / Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Last post by Sigmetnow on Today at 10:06:34 PM »
Quote
Mobileye’s turn-key self-driving system features a full-sensor suite of 13 cameras, three long-range LiDARs, six short-range LiDARs, and six radar. It also includes the Israeli company’s EyeQ system-on-a-chip and a data crowdsourcing program called the Road Experience Management, or REM, which uses real-time data from Mobileye-equipped vehicles to build out a global 3D map.

Removing the crutches:  Tesla is transitioning to pure vision as its self-driving method, figuring that the remaining vision software problems must be solved, regardless of any other sensors on the vehicle.

Elon Musk explains Tesla’s pure vision approach to Autopilot and Full Self-Driving 
Quote
“When radar and vision disagree, which one do you believe? Vision has much more precision, so better to double down on vision than do sensor fusion. Sensors are a bitstream and cameras have several orders of magnitude more bits/sec than radar (or lidar). Radar must meaningfully increase signal/noise of bitstream to be worth complexity of integrating it. As vision processing gets better, it just leaves radar far behind,” Musk explained. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-autopilot-fsd-camera-approach-explained-elon-musk/
10
Policy and solutions / Re: The hydrogen economy
« Last post by wehappyfew on Today at 09:29:04 PM »
For mid to longer term storage (longer than hours or days), ammonia will be far better than H2.

It can be burned like natural gas in a peaker plant for quick reaction and high power but low efficiency, or converted in a fuel cell directly to electrons at high efficiency (but high capital cost, thus lower power).

The infrastructure to synthesize, transport, and store is already developed, just needs expansion.

Hydrogen has too many missing or expensive technologies in the chain for quick deployment.

NH3 stores as a liquid at moderate pressures and/or temps... vs H2 storage = hugely difficult outside of a few natural gas storage facilities that can handle it.
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