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Messages - blu_ice

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Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 03, 2021, 09:21:22 AM »
Rodius, with all due respect, completely closing borders is nigh impossible for countries with land borders that are being crossed by people doing their daily commute to work, families living on both sides, truck drivers delivering vital cargo etc. etc.

In that respect both AU and NZ are priviliged and able to pull off suppression strategies unavailable for most of us.

Policy and solutions / Re: Ships and boats
« on: March 26, 2021, 04:38:08 PM »
Sailing around the Cape is in effect a capacity reduction on the affected trade lanes. This will cause problems because the container market is already squeezed hard.

Policy and solutions / Re: Ships and boats
« on: March 25, 2021, 03:27:23 PM »
To make matters worse the whole container shipping industry is already struggling handle the volume of pandemic-era cargo. 

When Suez Canal is eventually cleared there is a long queue of vessels heading both directions and reaching their already congested destination ports all at the same time. This will force them to change port rotations and omit some ports because they cannot get berthing windows. Expect delays and additional costs.

Obviously things will be very different if the canal is cleared tomorrow or in a fortnight.

Policy and solutions / Re: Ships and boats
« on: March 25, 2021, 08:37:50 AM »
Ever Given is loose again's still stuck and blocking the route. This may get interesting unless situation is solved soon.

Policy and solutions / Re: Ships and boats
« on: March 24, 2021, 04:11:04 PM »
Ever Given is loose again

Based on personal experience snow melt is slow as long as night time temps are below zero and snow cover is fairly thick.

White snow reflects the sun and thick snow keeps itself cold.

Coal is in terminal decline but before declaring peak let's see what happens when economy picks up post-Covid.

Arctic background / Re: Baltic Images
« on: March 17, 2021, 09:32:29 AM »
Thanks Gero, interesting graphs.

Baltic Sea is very different from the Arctic Ocean but the lesson to be learnt here is that change isn't always linear.

My take on the graph is that since the 1990's the Baltic Proper on average no longer froze in winter.  Gulf of Bothnia, Gulf of Finland and the northern and eastern coastal areas still froze because they are less saline, shallower and located further north.

Past two winters Sea of Bothnia and large parts of Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga remained ice free. If this becomes a trend we can expect 2020's average to deviate from the winter average from 1990's to 2010's.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: March 16, 2021, 07:45:43 PM »
At least VW has finally seen the light. Now it’s time to roll up their sleeves and get to work.

One wonders what are the execs at say, Toyota, smoking.

We are approaching the point where old ICE production capacity is more of a liability than an asset. In fact the stock market already values it as such.

Policy and solutions / Re: The hydrogen economy
« on: March 15, 2021, 11:16:39 AM »
Green hydrogen becomes a relevant medium of renewable energy storage when there is plenty of renewable energy available. That is not yet the case.

Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: March 11, 2021, 07:57:20 AM »
On average warmth is good for areas where low temperature is the limiting factor for ag production.
However higher latitudes will heat more than the global average. This means they will experience a faster and more dramatic change in local climate.

Farmers like weather to be reliable in order to know when, how and which crops to grow. Yearly variability may prove difficult to handle when moving agriculture further north.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 05, 2021, 03:24:27 PM »
I expect Berlin to move Tesla's European position from a American niche automaker to one of the local big boys. German cars have a high quality brand whereas American cars do not. Also the price tag is likely to change from luxury to upper mid-range.

Texas will bring Cyber Truck and Semi.

Interesting times ahead.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 02, 2021, 06:58:55 PM »
Inaction was never a real policy option.

Remember how some countries wanted to go for herd immunity from the very beginning? For some reason Sweden, the UK and USA all decided to change course.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 02, 2021, 11:04:27 AM »
Yuval Noah Harari wrote a piece in Free to read.

The opening paragraph pretty much sums it up for me. How did such a "weak" virus cause such a mess?

Yuval Noah Harari: Lessons from a year of Covid | Free to read

How can we summarise the Covid year from a broad historical perspective? Many people believe that the terrible toll coronavirus has taken demonstrates humanity’s helplessness in the face of nature’s might. In fact, 2020 has shown that humanity is far from helpless. Epidemics are no longer uncontrollable forces of nature. Science has turned them into a manageable challenge.

Why, then, has there been so much death and suffering? Because of bad political decisions.

Policy and solutions / Re: Ships and boats
« on: March 01, 2021, 03:33:18 PM »

Discussion of ideas is what this forum is about. 

In truth, I was expecting someone to reply that 1 million cubic liters of hydrogen is not enough to supply even one ocean-going ship.  Is it?  The SpaceX idea is no crazier than the mid-ocean seaports suggested by others.  It simply has a brand — with an (almost) working prototype!
And discussion is preferred to stay in relevant topics.

I'm pretty sure rocket fuel to the future Spacex floating spaceports will be supplied by ships, not the other way around.

Policy and solutions / Re: Ships and boats
« on: March 01, 2021, 01:35:30 PM »
One thing to consider is that freight rates are volatile based on supply and demand whereas costs for shipowners are not.

That's why container carriers kept their slow steaming programs although oil price went down after the financial crisis. There was chronic oversupply on the market and slower cruise speed requires more vessels to serve the same route, hence capacity is reduced. They are also keen to make so called blank or void sailings, ie cancelling departures whenever rates and vessel utilization go down.

In fact about a year ago when China locked down for Covid, some vessels made the backhaul voyage from Europe to Asia around Africa. Bunker oil was very cheap after Covid hit and they saved the Suez Canal fee and reduced supply from the market thanks to longer sailing time.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 01, 2021, 01:24:27 PM »
Africa is not immune. Tanzania's Covid-denying president is reconsidering his policy when top officials began to die.

Tanzania: Will Magufuli’s U-turn on Covid restore regional faith in the country?
By Abdul Halim, in Dar es Salaam
Posted on Saturday, 27 February 2021 00:29

Tanzania's President Magufuli
Tanzania's President John Magufuli addresses a news conference during his official visit to Nairobi, Kenya October 31, 2016. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya
Tanzania, the largest East African country, is hurting its standing in the region due to its handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. Will President John Magufuli's recent U-turn make a difference?

After the region reported its first case of coronavirus in March 2020, Tanzania has and continues to walk alone after President Magufuli refused to join his regional counterparts in taking a common stance against the virus.

But after months of denying the obvious, several high-ranking former and current officials have died from what many suspect to be coronavirus. The government has not commented on what killed the top officials.

READ MORE Coronavirus: Tanzania's handling of pandemic raises eyebrows

The deceased top officials include: chief secretary to State House John Kijazi, former deputy finance minister Gregory Teu, former governor of Bank of Tanzania Benno Ndulu and first vice-president of Zanzibar Maalim Seif Sharrif Hamad, whose party ACT Wazalendo confirmed he had tested positive for Covid-19 just before his death.

Speaking at the funeral of Kijazi, Magufuli urged Tanzanians to participate in three days of prayer for “respiratory illnesses” that had become a challenge in Tanzania.

The authorities are asking doctors to refrain from referring to unspecified respiratory illnesses as Covid-19 or accepting patients that claim to have symptoms specific to the virus.

From a previous report in The Africa Report, one anonymous doctor said: “We are pressured by the authorities not to attend to people who have coronavirus symptoms rather than treating them for pneumonia and lung infections.”

Economy over lives
Rather than opt for a lockdown or curfew as neighbouring countries did, early on Magufuli declared Tanzania to be free from coronavirus after three days of prayers. As of May 2020, the Magufuli administration had stopped testing people and releasing data on the number of infections. By then, the country had reported 509 cases with 21 fatalities.

While other countries reported new cases, recoveries and fatalities and even took measures like testing at their borders, officials in Tanzania were dancing and singing that Covid cannot survive in their bodies after prayers.

But diplomatic and political analyst Wetengere Kitojo in Dar es Salaam says contrary to what some people believe, Tanzania is observing all guidelines issued by health experts.

“Regardless of what others in the region are saying, our government is serious about protecting people in a way that does not affect the economy. Tanzania should not be dictated on this matter.”

Kitojo adds that Tanzania’s measures were primarily aimed at protecting the economy.

Tanzania is endangering its neighbours
In a statement issued on 21 February, the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) director general Tedros Adhanom called the situation in Tanzania concerning and urged it to follow scientific protocols: “This underscores the need for Tanzania to take robust action both to safeguard their own people and protect the population in these countries and beyond.”

The very same day of the WHO’s statement, Magufuli made a slight amendment to his usual discourse regarding Covid. After months of refusing to impose a lockdown or release any data on rising cases, he emerged from a Church service asking Tanzanians to put on locally made face masks instead of imported ones. Masks coming from abroad could not be trusted he said, echoing earlier statements of distrust regarding the vaccine.

“As Tanzanians, we must be keen to wear these face masks. If those who created them are not dying, then they are good for us. Please use masks produced by the ministry of health,” said Magufuli after exiting Saint Peter’s Catholic Church.

Despite the recent nod to mask wearing, opposition and rights activists in Tanzania have been calling the country’s approach shameful. Zitto Kabwe, the head of ACT Wazalendo, says the government’s denial has not only been putting people in the country at risk but also the entire region.

READ MORE Tanzania: Magufuli not keen on Covid shots, but without vaccines many would be dying of smallpox

“This is a global challenge. So denying the truth about the spread of the virus in Tanzania is putting the entire country and region at risk. A lot of people are getting sick, hospitals are becoming overwhelmed and the elderly are losing their lives.”

Fatma Karume – a rights activist, daughter of Zanzibar’s former president Aman Abeid Karume and a fierce critic of President Magufuli – says the world should not stay quiet while Magufuli’s dictatorship downplays Covid-19.

“The world should not allow Magufuli’s authoritarianism and Covid denialism to turn a nation of 60 million souls into a petri dish for bleeding Covid-19 mutations.”

Regional issue
Up until now, very few in the region appear to have much faith in Tanzania after it refused to collaborate with its neighbours on establishing a common stance on fighting the virus.

Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda and Mozambique have been following the guidelines of the WHO and regional authorities like the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.

For example, Kenya has imposed – several times now – a curfew and lockdown in Nairobi and Mombasa and even imposed travel bans to and from Nairobi to curb the spike of infections.

READ MORE Nairobi's fight against Coronavirus gets violent

Kenya’s top opposition politician Raila Odinga declared Covid-19 to be a regional issue.

“If we don’t control Kenya, it will affect Tanzania, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi. Our destiny is tied together. We don’t want a situation where any of these countries will have to close their borders with the others,” Odinga was quoted as saying by the South African Broadcasting Corporation in 2020.

At one point though, Kenya did close its border with Tanzania, accusing Magufuli’s administration of disregarding the region’s common stance.

Kenya’s President Uhuru Kenyatta also said East Africa Community (EAC) member states need to have a common vision in order to defeat the virus.

“At the end of the day, we need to work together. Our people are one, and our borders are shared,” said Kenyatta in a televised address in May 2020.

Of the countries in the region, Kenya has been the hardest hit. It has recorded more than 100,000 cases, followed by Uganda which has recorded 40,154 cases, while Rwanda has recorded 17,835 cases.

In the case of Rwanda, the small East African country has taken a strong approach by imposing lockdowns on the most-affected areas, including its capital, Kigali.

President Paul Kagame, the current EAC chairman, criticised the lack of planning among regional leaders to fight the pandemic. Officials from both Tanzania and Burundi were absent from a virtual meeting on that topic.

Bottom Line
While Magufuli made a slight U-turn on his usual discourse of the pandemic, it is not a sea change.

Without publishing official numbers, the public and medical workers have no real sense of how bad the situation is.

Judging by the efforts Tanzania’s neighbours, the situation requires much more attention and stricter measures.

Policy and solutions / Re: Ships and boats
« on: February 25, 2021, 04:40:11 PM »
Oil tankers are not very fast to begin with. Container vessels were much faster but adopted practices just before the financial crisis to cut high bunker costs at the time.

Nowadays container transit times are longer than fifteen years ago and new vessels are designed to lower cruise speeds.

There’s an obvious downside. Slower speed means more time at sea which means higher personnel and capital cost and less chargeable voyages.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 23, 2021, 09:59:54 PM »
Tech stocks are going down the most because they were seriously overvalued.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 23, 2021, 03:20:40 PM »
In the age of robocar there won't be Uber drivers of any kind. That's why Uber is designing it's own robocars.

Uber wants to count drivers as contractors, because that would move downside of not having rides to the drivers. All the upside is supposed to remain with Uber, of course.

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: February 22, 2021, 09:49:08 PM »
Well, no. Rather trade some efficiency to resiliency.

Connect TX grid with the rest of the US. Don’t build near sea level. Have a stock of essential goods instead of just-in-time deliveries. Maintain a proper health care system.

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: February 22, 2021, 03:16:43 PM »
I'd say it's about time people start to build their infrastructure, supply chains, institutions, well basically everything, to better withstand freak events.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Casual 2021 melting season predictions
« on: February 19, 2021, 07:11:17 AM »
My prediction is we will witness one or more occurrences of very weird weather around the Arctic (and elsewhere). Something like the record breaking Siberian heatwave or the GAAC of 2020.

Because in climate and weather, weird is the new normal.

Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 18, 2021, 10:06:56 PM »
Tbh it must be awful being stuck in -15C temps in poorly insulated houses without power and water. It’s a life threatening situation.

A widespread blackout in mid-winter would be a national emergency up here in Finland and we are used to such conditions.

Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 18, 2021, 05:34:01 PM »
I’m afraid pumps and pipes and valves in those solid frozen pools will need some fixing when the temperature rises.

Policy and solutions / Re: Cryptocurrency
« on: February 13, 2021, 12:01:51 PM »
Chamath Palihapitiya (@chamath) 2/9/21, 4:10 PM
Loss porn: In 2014 I bought an empty lot in Lake Tahoe for $ Bitcoin.  :'( ;D ;D ;D
Price adjusted for today, I paid $27.5M for it.…
Chamath Palihapitiya:
I got the math cost $128M. #FML 
A perfect example why bitcoin is useless as a medium of exchange, ie money.

Cryptos are for speculation without any practical use.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 13, 2021, 11:56:19 AM »
I wonder how much intra-day battery storage would cost in the NL? They need to transfer the solar output from noon time maximum to later afternoon and early evening. Batteries should be very good in that but gigawatt scale solutions do have a pricetag.

Policy and solutions / Re: Cryptocurrency
« on: February 10, 2021, 08:58:09 AM »
There is this famous tweet that describes Bitcoin pretty accurately:

imagine if keeping your car idling 24/7 produced solved Sudokus you could trade for heroin

It seems you can trade them for Tesla cars also but the basic principle remains the same. It's a useless waste of energy and computing power.

Also, cryptos are terrible medium of exchange because their value is volatile an mainly increasing. Why spend 1 BC for a model 3 if next year it will buy you two model S.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 09, 2021, 10:49:49 AM »
Does anyone else find it disappointing that Tesla have invested in something so energy intensive and wasteful as bitcoin?

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 05, 2021, 12:09:54 PM »
Energy company ST1 is building a deep geothermal plant in Espoo, next to Helsinki. Their goal is to drill two 6,5 km holes in the granite bedrock to get 110 C water back at the surface. Heat would be used for the local district heating network.

It's a pilot project. They are several years behind initial schedule and cost overruns are likely >100 MEUR by now. There's been complaints about local mini-earthquakes and noise. It's an interesting project nevertheless, go check it out.

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: February 03, 2021, 03:22:45 PM »
Not the most forgiving field of work, this rocket business.

But it was fun to watch regardless. The "belly flop" looks amazing.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 03, 2021, 08:06:31 AM »
What is our medical science literate members' take on the new variants, such as E484K? Based on what I've read in the news there is a real risk the virus will develop resistance to immunity, whether obtained by disease or vaccination

Even if Covid variants will become partly resistant to vaccines, we can kiss goodbye vaccination certificates for international travel etc.

Obviously it's possible to update the vaccines also, but the challenges in production and distribution remain.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 01, 2021, 01:43:34 PM »
I seem to have missed quite a lot this weekend.

The above is all true as an expectation. The major downside is that we simply do not know because they are all too new.

Many models are based on incomplete data.

Time is a luxury we do not have but certainty requires time. In the end it becomes a risk based evaluation on choosing certain technologies.

The risk is that 10-15 years from now we find the true cost of wind was underestimated. Apart from the obvious backbiting that will follow, there is a risk that opportunities to have a bigger, better, faster solution don't happen because the exploding cost of wind ate all the money.

Right now, don't know really does mean don't know.  It should not stop progress on renewables, but someone has to keep an eye on the ball as we do not have time to go down rabbit holes.
Exactly. Despite all the progress in renewables we haven't decreased global CO2 emissions.

Wind may be cheaper than FF nowadays, but we don't know if wind + grid scale storage is cheaper than FF, or cheaper than wind + FF.  However, we can be certain intermittency has a price tag which is likely to have a higher marginal cost when renewable share increases.

We should keep on building renewables. But don't count on time and technological silver bullet to take care of our emission problems.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: January 27, 2021, 10:18:26 AM »

Which makes my point.

It is not just rules on taxation of imports.  It is company law, financial law, ease of access, ease of setting up a business relationship.

I work regularly in the EU.  I have a UK limited company.  To set that up in the UK I need £150 and a UK registered address.  In Belgium I need a degree and put down a €16,000 deposit.

Commercial law is entirely different in different EU countries.  The UK has the most open commercial law in Europe and the least regulation over businesses.

To assume that a HUGE impact such as the UK, the 5th largest economy in the world, leaving the EU, would have little or no impact on the EU, even when the motor trade was heavily lobbying the commission to make an exception to vehicle parts, is a little disingenuous.

Ford manufactures 1.6m engines in Dagenham each year.  It sold 155k cars in the UK in 2020.  These engines will have up to 30 or 40 micro controllers in them.

To try and avoid rules of origin it is highly likely that EU vehicle manufacturers are trying to get more stock of micro controllers in order to fabricate out of the UK.

Now they are finding that supplier relationships, commercials and supply chain don't change in a few weeks.
Well, no. You said chips were imported to the EU via Britain because continental countries were more "hostile" towards Asian manufacturers. Nowhere have you shown any proof for this hostility. Commercial reasons don't require "hostility" elsewhere.

Most importantly the current microchip shortage is global, not restricted to the EU or the UK.
In Louisville, Kentucky, Monday, a Ford factory that assembles the Escape SUV began a weeklong shutdown because it doesn’t have enough semiconductor supplies. It has become the latest automaker to feel the impact of a global chip shortage.
There are many logistical bottlenecks around the globe right now. Most are Covid caused, Brexit is adding a local insult to injury.

BTW on the World Bank Ease of Doing Business index the highest ranking European country is Denmark, the global number 4. The UK is ranking second in Europe and 8th globally. Interestingly, 16 EU countries share the number 1 spot on Trading across Border section, while the UK is number 33.

But now we are getting off-topic.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: January 26, 2021, 10:23:40 AM »
Doesn't make sense and is therefore also not true. I'm working for one of those 'Asian' manufacturer of micro controller. Those are shipped neither via the UK nor via Rotterdam but always via air freight, a lot via Frankfurt but of course it depends on where the micro controller are used by the likes of Bosch, Continental and others. Not so much by the OEMs. Most manufacturing is done in Germany, but there is some manufacturing in France but also e.g. Ireland.
Those items have a far to high cost / weight ratio to send them via ship.
I work for a freight forwarder handling imports to Europe and fully agree with you. Reasons to import via another EU country are commercial or logistical, ie. a company in member state A has a supplier in Asia and they import all cargo first to their own country and then sell to their customers in member states B, C and D. This way they can either control the supply chain or get economies of scale logistically.

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: January 25, 2021, 03:24:13 PM »
Progress on Starship is pretty impressive.

Sigmetnow do you know when Spacex is planning to start test flights on the booster stage also? That will be impressive to watch.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: January 25, 2021, 03:16:01 PM »
Reality is that manufacturers like VW sucked in tens of millions of microprocessors through the UK as mainland EU countries have more "hostile" attitudes to Asian electronics.

That makes little sense to me, 
The single market makes goods acceptable regardless of port of entry and the port of entry for a significant amount of goods from the far east destined for the UK was Rotterdam.
I suppose Rotterdam was mostly a transit port only and the import to the EU was done in the UK.

Besides that minor detail I agree with you 100%. If goods were good to import to the EU via UK, they were good to import via any member state.

Unlike duty, VAT is national but the importers can pass that on. And UK VAT rate wasn't lower than for example German VAT rate.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: January 22, 2021, 04:05:49 PM »
This was textbook trolling.

Instead of Global Surface Air Temperatures people are now discussing whether there is a hiatus or not. Discussion was successfully derailed to a denier talking point.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: January 22, 2021, 10:25:54 AM »
Could we drop the "hiatus" please? Everybody knows global temps are noisy. A new record year is not followed by a record year after a record year, even in a warming world. Variability is not hiatus.

Policy and solutions / Re: Ships and boats
« on: January 21, 2021, 08:29:49 PM »
Skou: Maersk will order first carbon-neutral ships within the next three years

Søren Skou, the CEO of AP Moller-Maersk, the group that controls the largest containerline in the world, has mapped out when he will put pen to paper to order the company’s first carbon-neutral ships.

Speaking in the latest episode of the Outrage and Optimism podcast, which focused on the future of shipping, Skou said Maersk would order carbon-neutral ships within the next three years, starting off with smaller tonnage ships aimed at regional trades, before taking the knowledge and experience from this landmark first generation of new ships to order a round of larger boxships.

“Three years from now, we expect to buy the first order,” Skou said, saying the initial series would be smaller ships that can operate in a defined geographical area, likely Europe.

“Then we can go out and make supply contracts with people that can provide, whether it’s ammonia or alcohol, methanol and ethanol,” Skou continued, saying the aim was then to order larger carbon-neutral ships before the end of the decade.

Maersk has eschewed new orders lately and has avoided going down the LNG-fuelled path of many of its rivals.

In December 2018, Maersk came out as the first major shipping line to pledge to be carbon neutral by 2050.

In October 2019 the Danish carrier identified three fuels to focus on in its decarbonisation drive, namely renewable methanol, biogas and ammonia.

“A ship has a life expectancy of between 20 and 25 years, so we need to start replacing ships by 2030 in order to be ready at 2050,” Skou told the podcast.

“This is really very encouraging, it’s just the level of ambition and commitment we need to see across the whole industry. It makes perfect commercial sense so I’d hope to see other shipping companies joining the race. What we really need is real zero emissions vessels in operation by 2030 to avoid catastrophic climate change,” Di Gilpin from the UK-based Smart Green Shipping Alliance told Splash today.

Greg Atkinson from Japan’s Eco Marine Power took issue with the terminology carbon neutral when contacted by Splash.

“Carbon neutral is a pretty vague term but if they mean CO2 neutral then this seems feasible depending on the size of the ship,” Atkinson said.

“The industry has come together to work on the decarbonisation issue, which requires collaboration across the value chain – from the fuel suppliers to the classification societies to the ports and shipowners,” commented Andrew Stephens, the executive director of the Sustainable Shipping Initiative.

“First movers are an essential part of this chain, investing into R&D for sustainable zero carbon fuels and setting their ambitions above what is expected and leading the way. We need industry leaders like Maersk to share research and learnings to enable and accelerate the industry’s transition to zero emissions,” Stephens said.

Last July, Maersk joined the likes of Nike and Mercedes-Benz as one of the nine founding signatories to the Transform to Net Zero initiative, which intends to develop and deliver research, guidance, and implementable roadmaps to enable all businesses to achieve net zero emissions.

Last month the European Commission presented its transport initiatives for the coming four years as part of longer terms plans to decarbonise the sector.

Under new goals set by Brussels, by 2030 zero-emission marine vessels will be market-ready with ports in a position to supply the requisite new fuel, and carbon pricing in place to ensure there is a strong uptake of these new vessels.

It should, but it isn't. If net zero goal is placed within a decade, people currently in power would have to make the tough decisions. They don't want to do that.

As net zero goal is placed further into the future, it's all business as usual until the powers-that-be conveniently retire. Technology may reduce some emissions so everybody can pretend things are being done, when in fact nothing isn't.

This is a rather simplistic and untrue explanation

Simplistic, absolutely. Untrue? I wouldn't be so sure about that.

I suppose most here agree that coal is yesterday's fuel and a revolution in energy is underway. But we disagree on it's pace. Global emissions keep on rising. We need a pandemic scale emission cuts every year.

If, as some here claim, renewable technology is soon bringing emissions to net-zero, why are governments and corporations placing their net-zero goals decades into future? I doubt their leaders are stupid. Maybe they just don't want to be held accountable on promises they cannot keep?

the Us and Europe still talk like they should be aplauded for getting to net zerro by 2050. we need a ban on new ff infrastructure ice vehicles today. net zero by 2030 or 2035 should be our goal.
It should, but it isn't. If net zero goal is placed within a decade, people currently in power would have to make the tough decisions. They don't want to do that.

As net zero goal is placed further into the future, it's all business as usual until the powers-that-be conveniently retire. Technology may reduce some emissions so everybody can pretend things are being done, when in fact nothing isn't.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 15, 2021, 10:43:54 AM »
This thing will be mostly over by the end of May. 20-30% of the American/European population will have been infected by then and at least 20% will get the vaccine (even in Europe where there is a scarcity of vaccines). Since COVID is highly seasonal, summertime R is definitely lower than wintertime R. Last summer R was 1,2-1,5 in Europe with basically not effort, no masks, nothing. This means that even vaccinating 20% (plus 20-30% who got it before) will be enough to push it back into the shadows (because R will be lower than 1, even with the mutant version).
Then, during summer and autumn you will have to vaccinate the rest of the population which will happen.
Yep. Mortality should decrease even faster because risk groups are vaccinated first.

The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: January 14, 2021, 10:54:40 AM »
be cause & gerontocrat:
I notice that the most cogent arguments you can make against my linked article are, basically, to foam at the mouth.
Tom, what kind of reaction did you expect?

Trump lost the election fair and square, then discredited the results, pressured election officials and when all this failed, sent his violent mob to the Congress to stop the legal process of declaring Biden the new president. Fortunately only 5 people died. Even more fortunate is the strength of the American democratic institutions, although I doubt we have seen the end of this.

To us living outside the US, Trump behaved like a caricature 1960's African dictator. (Apologies for all Africans, but the post-colonial decades were not very stable on the continent.)

The post you linked compared attempted coup to protests against police brutality. Stupid claims rarely get smart responses.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: January 14, 2021, 10:33:55 AM »
A friendly suggestion: delete all Covid related threads.

The forum is built on topics related to arctic ice, climate and the environment.  We all share interest in those them, as well as somewhat similar worldview.

It should be obvious by now that the good members of the ASIF will never find common ground regarding the pandemic. The endless toxic discussion is destroying the forum.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 13, 2021, 02:18:37 PM »
But then again, I suppose nobody expected Tesla to conquer the market without ever facing competition.

Everyone expected the market to compete to kill Tesla before it became a threat.

Nobody expected that the market would keep on pushing out compliance cars until after Tesla became a force to recon with.

I'm sure it will become a classic business case study at the business colleges in the future.

It is quite possible that the incumbents thought that there would be no need for other than compliance cars until legislation forced it.  i.e. that EV's were too expensive and uncompetitive to become a mass market car without governments forcing the cheap and cheerful fossil burning planet killing cars of the road.

Seems they were wrong.
That is true of course, and some legacy car makers are still in denial. Toyota is a prime example with their hybrid cars and hydrogen fantasies.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 13, 2021, 11:06:26 AM »

I wouldn't rule out VW group yet. They have a decent BEV portfolio with ID.3 and ID.4, Audi E-Tron, Skoda Enyaq, Seat Mii, Porsche and so on. They are behind Tesla in software and electric drivetrain technology but they do know how to mass produce quality vehicles. Most importantly they sold very well in Q4 2020, overtaking Model3 in many European countries. In the end of the day it is sales, not reviews or "expert" opinion that counts. Something that Tesla has proven over the years.

The Koreans are also learning and it will be interesting to see how the new Ioniq will be received.

But then again, I suppose nobody expected Tesla to conquer the market without ever facing competition.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 12, 2021, 12:32:10 PM »
Gero, you are not mistaken.

And if too much money is squeezed off the company, one can always cut costs.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 12, 2021, 08:28:29 AM »

If Tesla does not pay investors, then the company is literally a ponzi scheme. it is illegal for a corporation to never intend to pay investors. Although the SEC is completely toothless, I understand, but eventually investors will pull out if they realize this.

You are badly mistaken here.

Dividend isn't the only way for a company to create monetary value to its shareholders. Stock buyback is a common method, and many growing companies decide to invest all revenue back into the business as they see this is the most effective way to increase shareholder value.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is famous for never paying dividend. Buffett believes his investors cannot make better return elsewhere making it unoptimal for paying dividend which would be invested elsewhere with lower return.

I suppose Tesla investors are quite happy with Tesla's strategy so far.

The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: January 07, 2021, 06:21:16 AM »
Had Trump managed to get elected for four more years there's a good chance the USA would have never returned to the rule of democracy (such as it is anyway). Luckily, his power is not fully consolidated and many of the old guard in his own party oppose some of his crazier initiatives. Even so, the USA has tottered on the brink of anarchy in the last two months.
Yes. Four more years of Trump would have changed America into a quasi-democracy such as Hungary or even Russia. Elections are being held but they are not a real competition as power is de facto always held by the ruling party.

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