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Messages - litesong

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Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: December 23, 2018, 01:40:50 PM »
Weeeelll... moon dust just got a lot more dangerous...

From New Scientist:

To estimate how many radicals would be produced in humans after exposure to lunar dust, Donald Hendrix at Stony Brook University, New York, and his colleagues took dust from two iron-rich minerals – olivine and augite – found on the moon, and soaked it in a liquid that simulates human lung fluid.

After 15 minutes, the two minerals had released about nine times more hydroxyl radicals per litre of fluid than quartz dust, which is highly toxic.

I do suspect that as we are adapted to our environment the very technical environment we would be forced to live in Moon and Mars (and also the gravity is weaker among other things) would be very problematic on many levels...

The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: November 13, 2018, 11:03:26 AM »
your side-kick (Lurk)

High praise indeed ... I have added that to my profile column.

Thanks Rob :)

You are welcome, Lurk.
Your status as Neven's side-kick is well-deserved.

The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: November 12, 2018, 10:12:24 AM »
Can you spot the one who just doesn't get it ?

And the one who doesn't care ?

Give it a rest. That kind of stuff is what makes nevertrumpers looks stupid- no better than the Fish thing in Japan. Thought people here are smarter than that.

The rest / Re: Elections 2018 USA
« on: November 06, 2018, 02:00:52 AM »
Laursen at counterpunch presents a case for abstention:

"non-voters have been sending an increasingly loud and consistent message for at least 50 years now: we’ve lost our faith in electoral democracy. "

"a deep disillusionment that’s been growing for decades with an electoral democracy that becomes less democratic all the time, a sclerotic and highly institutionalized two-party system"

"Voting affirms the present system. It signifies our assent ... It maneuvers potentially revolutionary social movements into unthreatening political channels (the best decision Black Lives Matter ever made was to not endorse candidates). It nudges us to blame specific policies and politicians, rather than take a desperately needed hard look at electoral democracy itself."

" The right to say No to the whole damn thing is the most powerful political weapon we have as members of this or any society, because it denies the State legitimacy. "

" the worst thing about voting: it distracts us from the need to explore, collectively, without mediation by governments or politicians, how we can manage our future. "


The power of no is what makes a Brexit voting is abdication of one's civic responsibility....

The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: September 28, 2018, 06:38:35 PM »
Jeff Flake - another Man of Principle with feet of clay all the way up to his armpits.

The politics / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: September 26, 2018, 08:25:36 AM »
Salisbury suspects: Russian security services chase for 'leaks' after series of intelligence blunders

The three weeks since Britain identified the men suspected of poisoning former double agent Sergei Skripal have been miserable ones for Russia’s intelligence agencies.

First came the RT interview and Alexander Petrov and Roman Boshirov’s much-ridiculed cover story. Few in Russia, let alone the west, believed the fable of two supposedly gay men, drawn to a sleepy English town by a gothic cathedral and its 123m spire.

Things got worse once open-source sleuths like Bellingcat and The Insider got to work. Their investigations revealed that the classified passport details of the two men led directly back to the country’s military intelligence service (GRU). What was more, several dozen GRU agents appeared to been issued passports in numerical sequence. It was enough to check travel records to identify probable intelligence officers. Some publications have already begun to do so, with largely unclear legal consequences.

On Tuesday, however, Russia’s security agency, the FSB, appeared to be making a belated effort to limit the fallout. According to the Rosbalt information agency, agents had begun to conduct urgent searches at the Interior Ministry – the source, they believe, of the passport information that found its way to Bellingcat.

Bellingcat’s founder Eliot Higgins told The Independent that the reaction “spoke to the authenticity of the material” they had published.

“Russian officials try to attack Bellingcat’s work publicly, but privately it appears they’re taking it far more seriously,” he said.

Immigration and passport data have always been fairly easy to access illicitly from vendors at certain city markets or via online agencies. One detective agency, still accessible online at the time of writing, offers data from the official Rospasport (passport) and Peremescheniye (cross-border travel) databases. Detailed phone records are available to those even more curious. Prices range from 5,000 to 40,000 roubles (£58 to £462), with discounts of up to 40 per cent for “especially loyal customers”.

The politics / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: September 23, 2018, 09:32:39 AM »
After all the distractions, it's time to return to the subject of this thread : Russia.
Let me address the issues that fell between the cracks in first-come-first-serve-order.

First one is that Russian Defense Ministry press-conference about MH17 from last week. Here it is again :

Now, there are two parts to this press conference.

The first 12 minutes presents documents regarding the missile that shot down MH17. In particular, there is one "top-secret" document that cannot leave Russia, which shows some numbers that they say shows that the missile was shipped to Ukraine in 1986, suggesting that Ukraine launched the missile.

Now let's think about that for a second.

Four years of evidence collecting by the JIT and the Dutch Safety Board, and yes, instrumental reports from countless video and picture evidence analyzed by open source journalists like Bellingcat, which ALL suggest that the missile system was brought in from the 53rd Brigade in Kursk, and launched from a Russian controlled field south of Snizhne, and the only thing the Russians present in return is a page of a book which is supposedly "top secret" and cannot leave Russia.

Russia understands that to be credible, they would have to not just present their "top-secret" document putting the blame on Ukraine, but they also would have to debunk ALL the evidence that the JIT and the Dutch Safety Board presented. That's where the remainder of the video comes in, and I'd like to show how pathetic the Russian argument is.

At 12:30 they claim that a highly qualified top Russian experts found that the videos that the JIT presented are falsified.

As their first exhibit, they show the JIT video of the BUK (which was geo-located to be in Donetsk).
At 13:38 they show that the linear perspective lines of the BUK don't end up on the horizon, but end up below it. That they claim is proof that the video was falsified.

However, a much easier explanation is that the BUK was not 'level' on the low-loader.
The following picture is also from Donetsk, geo-located a few streets away from the video location. taken a few hours before the video, and it clearly shows that the BUK is titling forward, because the front wheel is sitting in a dip in the low loader :

Source of the image :

That explains not just why the the Russian argument is bogus, but it also shows that the Russians would have to explain and debunk more forensic evidence than just a few videos.

Second exhibit is a video that was geo-located to Makiivka.
At 15:25 they seem to think that the top of the truck cabin "disappears" contrary to some white surfaces on the side, when it drives through a shadow, and they say that is an indication that the video is fabricated.

However, there is a very simple explanation for this effect : The top of the truck cabin is not white as they seem to suggest, but a shiny black cover that is supposed to reflect sunlight, which of course turns dark when they drive through a shadow. You can see that clearly in this close up picture of the truck cabin :

Source of the image :

Not to mention that this video from Makiivka coincided with a satellite picture taken at almost the same time, which you can actually see on Google Earth if you were willing to check the truth !

And then the Russians don't even address the implication of their statement (of the missile shipment to Ukraine) on launch location.

Should I could go on ?

It should be clear by now that the Russian MoD is grasping at straws in trying to find any, ANY sort of argument, no matter how easy to debunk, against the massive amount of evidence that the forensic experts from the MH17 JIT and the Dutch Safety Board have collected, verified and presented. That MH17 was shot down by a BUK missile system from the 53rd brigade from Kursk, and launched from a Russian controlled field just south of Snizhne. Just like Bellingcat already concluded in September 2014.

Neven said :
So, again, my problem with Bellingcat is its obvious bias, and thus the way the evidence is framed. It is not science.

Please tell me where is the "bias" and "the way the evidence is framed" in Bellingcat's and others geo-location and timing of these (and many other) pictures and videos, and satellite images, of this BUK from the 53rd brigade in Kursk driving through Russian controlled Eastern Ukraine ?

The politics / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: September 22, 2018, 08:11:01 AM »
I caused quite a stir with my comments, it looks like.

I have three comments to make.

First off I called the twitter poster that Neven brought up (Elena Evdokimova) a "Russian troll". Not Lurk. Read the only four short comments I made, starting here, and you will see that I didn't issue any ad hominem to Lurk :,1974.msg173480.html#msg173480

Second, regarding my comment "I'm not sure what litesong said here" after Neven censored him was because Neven said he was not censoring the political threads.
So I wondered how horrendous litesong's statements must have been, especially since Lurk seems to be able to get away with quite a bit of abuse. And still does.

Since the main issue on this thread appears to be between Lurk and me, I have a suggestion which should seriously reduce unnecessarily distractions on these threads :

BOTH Lurk and me ignore each other completely.

That means, we do NOT respond to each other's comments AT ALL. Not even a hint.

DEAL, Lurk ?

[edit] Of course, Neven be the moderator. That would solve the issue of Neven having to moderate the entire forum or the political threads. He would only need to moderate if there is any interaction between Lurk and me. Is that reasonable, Neven ?

The politics / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: September 22, 2018, 04:38:05 AM »
[edited repost] I think this adequately address everyone's recent comments, so consider it that way please.

I see the ASIF as a deeply important resource on the net.  We have a community that discusses highly sophisticated, deeply technical matters that relate directly to the future of the entire planet and of our species.  Neven, you've done a profound service to humanity by creating and tending to this garden of thought and discourse.  I believe you're now allowing it to be degraded and harmed by permitting posts that corrode the collegiality that's been painstakingly built by many dedicated individuals.  This is a needless tragedy.
Agreed. This has been bothering me for a long time. I honestly don't care about these discussions and can't tell who is right (probably no one when opinions are so polarized) but this is destroying the ASIF slowly but surely.

There's an old saying that goes .... everything after but is bs. There's some truth to that.
No, I think a plain reading of the contribution indicates that the flame wars here are, indeed, destroying the community.

But here is a true fact that must not be missed - there is one person here who believes he is right all the time - and one person here who keeps asserting that Bellingcat is Right all the time, because he has never found a single fault in anything they have produced - and he has never once even raised a suspicion, possibility or a skeptical view on a single Factoid in their arsenal of claims directed against all things Russia. He then proceeds for months and years on end to castigate ridicule and demand proof from anyone and everyone who would dare posit a different Opinion - then repeatedly challenges them to chnage their opinions and agree with him and Bellingcat.

Give it a rest.  Rob (inappropriately) refers to you as a Russian troll, and you respond with paragraphs of character assassination.  There's dramatic asymmetry here, and it's not in your favor.

Rob has contributed many posts of value on the ice science side of the forum.  Can you say the same?

The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: September 17, 2018, 05:05:21 AM »
And you consciously choose "to believe" the Washington Post's reporting......
Ah, Lurk earns his name, answering within minutes, even giving years' old fishheads which I never smelled. Ya ken tell Lurk listens intently to FOX, which was created only to keep future re-pubic-lick-un PRESSY-Dents from impeachment. Jawohl!  That Robert Mueller chopper is makin' "don'T rump" nervous......5000 lies & rising. Seems that the Post will report more "don'T rump" lies & I'll do more..... extrapolatin'.

What a nice wank that was.
"pears Lurch is gettin' nervous 'bout "don'T rump" lies. Lurch seyz he don't care fer "don'T rump", altho he supports him more than a jockstrap.

Psycho Troll

Whatever you call him, Litesong has a point.

This all started with this claim by litesong :

The Washington Post has documented 4229 lies by "don'T rump", as of Aug. 1, 2018, at a rate of 7.6 lies per day. At that given rate extrapolated to today, "don'T rump" should have lied 4571 times. However, the Washington Post reports "don'T rump" lies are up to 5000, showing that "don't rump" is getting nervous.

Which comes from here :

Which you attacked right away by questioning the credibility of the Washington Post about the war in Iraq (without giving any reference) and not addressing the subject of the comment.

If you dispute that Trump told 4229 lies as of Aug 1,2018, than please present some counter evidence that shows the Washington Post is wrong.

I checked around a bit, and Trump's record is abysmal. Here is politifact's overview :
Only 5% of his statements analyzed are labeled 'true'.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: July 14, 2018, 11:02:50 AM »
A nice reminder that when Greenland's glaciers calve, big stuff falls off.

Women will drive transition to electric cars, study finds
More focused marketing of electric cars to women could be more effective in creating the required revolution away from more polluting vehicles than universal government intervention, a new study has said.

Highly educated women are an untapped but potentially lucrative market for electric vehicle sales because they have greater environmental and fuel efficiency awareness than men, says a new study by researchers at the University of Sussex and Aarhus University in Denmark.

The research also recommends the newly retired be targeted for electric vehicle promotion, even though they as a group have less interest in more environmentally friendly vehicles. Pensioners have high car ownership, drive short distances, have high budgets for car purchases and are less interested in design - all characteristics that could make them ideal electric vehicle owners. ...

“Women rank ease of operation, safety, running costs and environmental impact - making electric vehicles a better fit for their specification.”

“This is false. My wife won’t drive my model 3 because people keep asking her about it.”

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: July 03, 2018, 05:51:34 PM »
Nice overview of what you can find on Cryoportal from this thread.
Ruth Mottram (@ruth_mottram) Tweeted:
The final meeting for phase 2 of the @esaclimate #CCI #Greenland #icesheet project showing the evolution of the #icevelocity data with improvements to coverage and algorithms from #Sentinel1


Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: June 17, 2018, 12:29:32 AM »
I seem to have omitted the Massom paper doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0212-1 on the protective effect of sea ice on ice shelves through attenuation of ocean swell. They intensively examine the Larsen and Wilkins collapses.

"A decadal-scale reduction of sea ice coverage (concentration, that is the proportion of the ocean surface covered by sea ice, and duration) over the satellite era (since 1979) in the northwestern Weddell Sea and the Bellingshausen Sea (Fig. 3; also ref. 27 ) dramatically increased the potential for substantial ocean wave energy to reach the ice shelf fronts in mid- to late summer and in early autumn. An increase in
open-water duration of approximately three months occurred between 1979/1980 and 2009/2010 [27]."

"The sea ice loss in each case resulted in extensive and sustained periods of exposure to broadly open-ocean conditions offshore "

"Occurring immediately before each disintegration event, sliver-berg calvings (Fig. 2) removed keystone blocks from the arch-like configuration of the ice shelf front that were crucial to its structural integrity."

i attach figure 3, showing decline in sea ice in the region.


Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: June 16, 2018, 09:37:56 PM »
Two other papers came to my attention, althoug not from Nature:

Bamber et al. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aac2f0 look at land ice contribution to sea level rise in the satellite era. Their result is smaller than many GRACE derivations, which they claim is due to smaller trends for glaciers and ice caps.

Dow et al. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aao7212 analyse the effect of basal channelized melt on ice shelf fracture. Their principal area is Nansen but they have this to say about PIG:

"Pine Island Glacier is one of the most vulnerable regions of the Antarctic to ice shelf collapse and has seen marked thinning rates and grounding line retreat over the last decade (4, 6). Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf has had five large calving events between 2000 and 2017. The fracture that grew to cause the most recent calving event in September 2017 initiated over one of the ice shelf basal channels. The channels have been identified from MODIS imagery (5) and radar surveys (6). A 4-km-wide polynya identified from Landsat imagery in 2000 also supports the presence of a channel in this location. The fracture (Fig. 1G) can first be seen in March 2015 with a length of 3.7 km. By February, the fracture had moved 3.4 km downstream and lengthened to 7 km. In January 2017, the fracture was 5.4 km downstream and 19 km long. This fracture culminated in a calving event in September 2017 creating the 185-km 2 B-44 iceberg. The formation of a fracture originating from the center of the ice shelf and propagating laterally, rather than from the edge toward the center has previously been attributed to crevasses originating from the grounding line (27). Here, we suggest that thinning within the basal channel is a driver for the initial transverse location of the fracture, and the role of grounding line originated crevasses is to determine the longitudinal location of fracture formation."

I attach the picture for PIG, but they have many others including Totten and Petermann.


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