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Messages - voyageur9

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« on: March 15, 2021, 09:51:41 AM »
Following three days of extent losses, concentrated in "real" seas such as Bering, Barents and the Greenland Sea, rather than the marginally attached Okhotsk, and considering the relatively late date, we are now officially switching over to the 2021 melting season. Fasten your seat belts!

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 06, 2020, 03:20:23 PM »
NSIDC DAILY extent at 3.822 million km2 is unchanged from the day before.

The last 3 (or was it 4?) times it happened the data was duff, and NSIDC put a revised set of spreadsheets out later in the day or the following day.

How likely is it chance? It has happened zero times in the last 5 years (after data was corrected), though it has happened 8 times in the 5 years before that.

There is a good chance the data is duff - and being Labour Weekend ?? So I am not posting today, unless revised data comes out later.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 05, 2020, 04:13:47 PM »
Sorry folks but...

Dog + Coffee + Laptop = DISASTER.

Laptop may not be repairable and as my budget does not run to a new laptop that's me out of action indefinitely.ΔΊ

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 10:05:47 AM »
In physical reality, what matters most is thickness distribution (and volume), then area, then extent. If the ice is driven in a compacting transport, extent will plummet with not much physical impact, while the reverse is also true under a divergence regime. What we can see unfortunately with the satellites and models is the opposite, extent in high accuracy, area in medium accuracy, thickness distribution and volume with low accuracy and delays.
This allows both parties to have numbers and data on their side, which is fine, just has to be interpreted according to physics and not just visible numbers on a chart.
The sunny July did huge damage to the CAB in terms of volume, and the open Siberian seas are a disaster waiting for imports, while the Atlantic front has huge amounts of open water as in 2012 and 2016, very unlike 2019. OTOH the Beaufort is full of ice and the CAA and Greenland Sea are still holding up. The question we do not know is how much of the remaining ice is in marginal conditions - still whole for now but will melt out by mid-Sept. This is what will dictate the area numbers, and partially the volume numbers as well, as volume calculation is tied to measured area changes. The extent numbers will be dictated by area numbers, but very highly affected by compaction or divergence - very visible, much less important IMHO. 2016 was almost as low as 2012 in terms of area, but very high up in terms of extent.
My take on things is that the ice is thinner than appears, due to the impact of July insolation and due to very high movements in the last few weeks, which induced faster bottom melt. I have never seen so many days where the CAB was entirely visible, and this while the ice was doing a crazy dance around the basin. Then came the cyclone with movements induced in the other direction. The CAA has been sweltering in heat and the ice is all broken up. So I expect a some point a lot of the ice which originated with a standard FYI thickness will melt out, and so will some of the thinner MYI. This will probably leave us with a total area record or near-record, even though the Beaufort may not be in record territory at all. Oh yeah, I also expect a volume record. I can't say the same for extent, which might be far away from 2012's record, though surely below 2019. This depends on random September factors so can beat the seasoned forecasters easily.
August is upon us, the answers will be clear in a few weeks time, not much longer to wait.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 24, 2020, 05:25:29 PM »
JAXA Extent -Comparisons with other years

With Juan having a bit of a rest (I hope - he certainly deserves one**) while others take up the slack, I attach my not-as-good-as-Juan's table of variations of Jaxa extent c.f. previous years from 2000.

I also attach another not-as-good-as-Juan's table, this one showing extent on this day c.f. previous years MINIMA from 2000. As extent diminishes 2020 will slide down the table.
** Juan can't go to bed until the JAXA data arrives, and sometimes it doesn't..
Me, I can yawn, scratch my arse, get up, have a coffee or 3 and only then wake my laptop up.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 24, 2020, 03:38:41 PM »
The thick ice that originated north of Greenland and is now swirling around in the Lincoln Sea is debating whether to be sucked down the Nares or not. My bet is on a yes.

Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: July 22, 2020, 11:10:15 AM »
Mosaic Pbuoys passing through the 'Fram flux gate', jun25-jul22

Changes from June 30.

Laptev ... -89%
Hudson ... -85%
Barents ... -77%
Kara ... -73%
Baffin ... -71%
ESS ... -68%
Chukchi ... -46%
Greenland ... -26%
CAA ... -21%
CAB ... -19%
Beaufort ... -19%

Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: December 13, 2019, 06:59:45 PM »
I'll only do this once, because I have nothing to add but gratitude. A-Team's last 24-hr shear gif is jaw-dropping. It sure looks to be a dangerous place. The people on that boat are clearly risking their lives for invaluable understanding of the icecap. Above and beyond... what can you say?

The reporting in this thread has been riveting, and also invaluable for understanding the icecap.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: September 01, 2018, 09:56:28 PM »
From the very first post in this thread, way back in March:

Personally, I think we will end up somewhere around 4,5 Mn km2 by the middle of September.

FWIW, it's now September and the current projected JAXA minimum (rounded to one decimal place) is in fact 4.5 million km2.  Not bad!

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 05, 2018, 10:55:39 PM »
Time to break out 2018's Arctic minimum running back chart (named after the way it will wiggle through a crowd of dots in a few weeks' time).

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