Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Arctic sea ice => Topic started by: Michael Hauber on July 30, 2014, 10:07:53 AM

Title: Who's right - The models or the recent trend?
Post by: Michael Hauber on July 30, 2014, 10:07:53 AM
Its a central belief of some people that the models underestimate ice melt in the Arctic.  The recent trend towards stronger than predicted ice loss in the Arctic means a disaster and that the scientists have made a bad mistake with their models.

Its a central belief of other people that the models overestimate warming of the globe.  The recent trend towards slower than predicted warming means that everything is ok and that the scientists have made a bad mistake with their models.

Ever heard of natural variation?
Title: Re: Who's right - The models or the recent trend?
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 30, 2014, 11:13:20 AM
Which models are you talking about Michael? There are lots of different flavours! How do you define "recent"?

For much more on sea ice models in particular see also:

The Distributed Arctic Sea Ice Model (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,108.0.html)

Ever heard of the top of the atmosphere radiation budget?
Title: Re: Who's right - The models or the recent trend?
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 19, 2019, 06:18:31 PM
Why we underestimate speed of AGW:
http://macskamoksha.com/2019/06/climate-change-always-sooner-than-predicted
Title: Re: Who's right - The models or the recent trend?
Post by: TeaPotty on June 19, 2019, 06:30:34 PM
The recent trend towards slower than predicted warming means that everything is ok and that the scientists have made a bad mistake with their models.

Ever heard of natural variation?

<snip, Michael isn't that, I believe, and even if he were, we should be able to handle that, so don't harp; N.>
Warming has not slowed, and our civilization is in danger of collapse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQ-_OPSO61s
Title: Re: Who's right - The models or the recent trend?
Post by: binntho on June 19, 2019, 06:37:15 PM
Models cannot be "right" - they are models!

And recent trends are always "right" - they are the reality!
Title: Re: Who's right - The models or the recent trend?
Post by: Pragma on June 19, 2019, 06:37:40 PM
Michael,

In light of your recent posting stating your position on ACC and the IPCC, would you care to comment on the link that Tom Mazanec posted?

Cheers
Title: Re: Who's right - The models or the recent trend?
Post by: Klondike Kat on June 19, 2019, 06:56:15 PM
Models cannot be "right" - they are models!

And recent trends are always "right" - they are the reality!

Agreed.  Models are based on how well they can predict future trends.
Title: Re: Who's right - The models or the recent trend?
Post by: be cause on June 19, 2019, 07:34:39 PM
  Clever of Michael to be hiding in full sight for so long ! :)

The shit is hitting the fan now . Some will say ' I don't see no shit' until they drown in it . They've been shovelling shit all their lives , thinking they were storing up riches . Others will buy an umbrella . Little use when the shit gets to 50 foot deep ..
  Models aren't much use when reality overwhelms them . Time to pay attention to models more than 3 days out was 40 years ago .. but no-one that could make a difference did .  .. b.c.

ps .. get your tickets now for the North Pole Cruises leaving a port near you soon .. bring your own shit ..

Title: Re: Who's right - The models or the recent trend?
Post by: Dharma Rupa on June 19, 2019, 07:50:34 PM
  Models aren't much use when reality overwhelms them . Time to pay attention to models more than 3 days out was 40 years ago .. but no-one that could make a difference did .  .. b.c.

40 years ago I made sure I wasn't living at sea level.  I'll also oppose any attempt to mitigate damage caused by a rising sea level.  Be the change you want to be.

You didn't really need any models then and you certainly don't need them now to know that we fucked up.
Title: Re: Who's right - The models or the recent trend?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 19, 2019, 07:54:14 PM
The recent trend towards slower than predicted warming means that everything is ok and that the scientists have made a bad mistake with their models.

Ever heard of natural variation?
Does anyone need any more evidence that Michael is a troll?
Warming has not slowed, and our civilization is in danger of collapse.

That you take Michael's quote from five years ago out of context makes it look like you are a troll.  But real trolls tend to be much worse, so no, I don't actually think you are a troll, T.P., but this name calling of yours is a bit much!
Title: Re: Who's right - The models or the recent trend?
Post by: Pragma on June 19, 2019, 07:55:05 PM
Models cannot be "right" - they are models!

And recent trends are always "right" - they are the reality!

Agreed.  Models are based on how well they can predict future trends.

"It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong."

 Richard P. Feynman
Title: Re: Who's right - The models or the recent trend?
Post by: TeaPotty on June 19, 2019, 08:12:07 PM
Its a WASTE of time to argue with deniers.
They never discuss in good faith. Prudence with rich ppl's money is more important to them than prudence with human life and livelihood. History will judge us all as horrible people... and they will be right! But some of us more than others really have a deathwish hiding behind a gambling problem they call Capitalism.


The recent trend towards slower than predicted warming means that everything is ok and that the scientists have made a bad mistake with their models.

Ever heard of natural variation?
Does anyone need any more evidence that Michael is a troll?
Warming has not slowed, and our civilization is in danger of collapse.

That you take Michael's quote from five years ago out of context makes it look like you are a troll.  But real trolls tend to be much worse, so no, I don't actually think you are a troll, T.P., but this name calling of yours is a bit much!
Title: Re: Who's right - The models or the recent trend?
Post by: What is the problem on June 19, 2019, 08:35:54 PM
Models cannot be "right" - they are models!

And recent trends are always "right" - they are the reality!

Agreed.  Models are based on how well they can predict future trends.

Models describe the past. For future predictions one assumes (hopes) the same behaviour as in the past will be valid in the future too. Only with a perfect model this will be the case otherwise adjustments to the model need to be made after some time and availability of new data.
Title: Re: Who's right - The models or the recent trend?
Post by: magnamentis on June 19, 2019, 08:45:51 PM
Its a WASTE of time to argue with deniers.


that's correct but not one single post here fits into the category (ies) you mentioned.

this must be something personal which i understand it can happen but i can't see any benefit in
repeating the "D" word and the "T" word ad infinitum.

you made your point, i personally disagree but respect your opinion and now we should follow your own guidance (statement) that it's a waste of time (and energy)

agree ?

if so, no comment needed
Title: Re: Who's right - The models or the recent trend?
Post by: TeaPotty on June 19, 2019, 09:49:49 PM
Its a WASTE of time to argue with deniers.


that's correct but not one single post here fits into the category (ies) you mentioned.

this must be something personal which i understand it can happen but i can't see any benefit in
repeating the "D" word and the "T" word ad infinitum.

you made your point, i personally disagree but respect your opinion and now we should follow your own guidance (statement) that it's a waste of time (and energy)

agree ?

if so, no comment needed

Nice counter-attack.

How about this... find some good quality Hauber posts where he is clearly contributing to discussion and arguing in good faith.

Instead, you see Hauber ruins discussion threads. Those who have been here long enough will not forget how people like him drove posters like AbruptSLR away.

Hauber isn't concerned about how Climate Change effects human life, he is concerned about spending too much money to stop it.
Title: Re: Who's right - The models or the recent trend?
Post by: Neven on June 19, 2019, 09:52:45 PM
I was the one who drove posters like ASLR away.

I adjusted your comment, but didn't know that you've kicked up this thread. So, now I'm closing this thread, and urge you to leave it be. Even if Michael is a denier troll, which I don't believe he is, we should be able to handle him. At least, he is not a concern troll (posing as alarmists), who are the real PITA.