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Messages - icebgone

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This year is looking very similar to 2010 so 3.13.

I'm going with the statistical 4.8 for now.  I am watching the Siberian fire situation.  Haze from smoke and soot falling onto bare ice have opposite effects.  It will be interesting to see which has the greater melt impact.  Also, is there a measurement of how much energy is being injected via Pacific water flowing through the Bering Strait?  I seem to remember an estimate of 4-7 PetaJoules for a situation similar to what happened on the Pacific side this year in 2010?  If so, ice volume could be an interesting guess come October.

Dr. Rood has it right.  We have reached the point at which short term strategies trump long term strategies.  IMHO, short term strategies are the only politically correct strategy. Big political campaign contributors speak loudly and persistently, drowning out all other voices.  Only a groundswell of overwhelming volume, (read that as a disaster of unprecedented effect), could break through the cacophony of uncertainty that currently exists in political decision making. 

Policy and solutions / Re: What particularly causes "The Crash"
« on: February 22, 2014, 10:42:08 PM »
"The Crash" begins when global trading in oil based currency is interrupted by an oil catastrophe, natural or manmade .  Current unrest is centered in countries that have a possibility for creating an oil catastrophe from a certain point-of-view.  Just follow the oil currency trail.  Those with the most to maintain ( U.S. consumers with large retirement accounts) have the most to lose.  Oil consumption ( and the hyper-inflated currencies it supports) will eventually destroy the world as we know it.

The rest / Re: How to secure internet ?
« on: January 05, 2014, 10:39:27 PM »
Laurent,  The Meshnet looks similar to a case study answer that I and my fellow students came up with for a case study a number of years ago.  We added two steps.  Send a keycode via slow mail to only those people with a need to know and unscramble your communications.  Secondly, we believed at the time that individual computers would have multiple servers built-in by 2012 based on Moore's law and economic drivers.  Each would encrypt a piece of your message and then distribute it randomly through the system.  The server addresses would only be known to municipal courts and access limited to warrants they would issue.  With the keycode on a non-system reader and random changes you alone could change, we estimated that 99+% of messages stay private.  It is still possible to achieve but unlikely at this point.

Antarctica / Re: Discussion of WAIS Collapse Main Period from 2060 to 2100
« on: December 16, 2013, 02:20:37 AM »
AbruptSLR, Thank you for your explanation.  The current IPCC report is definitely in need of better glacier behavior information.  The impact on SLR, storm surge strengthening, tidal erosion, salt water intrusion and biodiversity loss all hinge on change in glacier behavior.  What percent of sea terminating glaciers have a detailed history and/or photographic data that extends back at least 10 years? 

Antarctica / Re: Discussion of WAIS Collapse Main Period from 2060 to 2100
« on: December 14, 2013, 08:51:32 PM »
ASLR, Do any of the long-term climate models include changes in glacier behavior from deflation due to bottom melting?  I am thinking of Jakobshaven and it's increase in forward speed as the grounding line moves up glacier.  Is it possible that an equilibrium point for a particular glacier, (PIG for instance) could be reached and a sudden change in behavior similar to Jakobshaven be observed?  I seem to remember that the glaciers that fed Larsen B speeded up once the ice shelf disintegrated.  With continued warming the loss of snow insulation could expose ice to atmospheric as well as oceanic influences.  I have to wonder if we are being too conservative.

Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: November 19, 2013, 04:38:21 AM »
Weird weather story:  I spent part of my Sunday in the basement because of a severe weather outbreak here in MidAmerica.  More than 40 Tornadoes visited MidAmerica resulting in 6 fatalities, multiple injuries and About 1 Billion in property damage.  First time a system with this amount of energy has happened in late November.  A more typical time would be late May or early June.  The temp reached 26.5 C also common in early June.  At least one of the tornadoes had a measured wind speed of 320-340 kph.  Unfortunately, it came down in a populated area.  I know that you can not link any one weather item to atmospheric warming but the number of recent one-of-a-kind weather events is getting long.  Hope everyone else is doing well.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: August 15, 2013, 02:42:33 AM »
Terry, I think, like you, that the plug in Nares has helped save MYI.  It was aided and abetted by the cold weather and the earlier loss of oceanic and atmospheric heat during the SSW events.  The balance between oceanic influence and atmospheric wave configuration that results in + and - dipole constructs needs lots of research.  Unfortunately, we are probably going to see a reduction in satellite based climate capabilities over the next 4-5 years as old satellites cease operation and are not replaced due to cost constraints.

I wanted to believe that we could best 2010 but it just doesn't look that way right now.  Should be close though.  I expected a range from 4425-4575.  the middle is 4500.  I took the slightly more conservative bin.  I might change my mind if a new ice mixer shows up in the next 4-5 days. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: Vote with your guts - And if... ?
« on: August 12, 2013, 01:15:22 AM »
Since the 2nd SSW event I seriously doubted whether water temps just under the ice would ever recover fast enough to provide enough bottom melt.  The weather in May pretty much reduced the options.  There is still a chance to reach 2010's numbers if another ice grinder comes along soon -- in the next 4-7 days.  This last one just fizzled too soon.  The lack of big storms in the Atlantic this late in the season means a lot of heat remains stored in the ocean and will be available to keep ice formation this winter to a minimum.  The great unknown at this point is whether the pacific which is showing excess heat will be a player over the winter or early spring 2014 like it was in 2007.  If you get warm surface and mid-level water from both oceans then next year will be very interesting.  I really hope we can avoid another big SSW event.  With the ice in its weakened condition it makes forecasting very difficult.  More buoys and thermistors would help.  So would additional satellite look down capability.  When is the next launch scheduled to take the place of the aging "A" train components?

This lull in ice loss is very puzzling.  Has all the bottom melt stopped?  I understand that the weather is making it difficult for melting but these continued upward adjustments make it seem like refreezing has already begun.  The big ice grinder is not yet on the horizon and may not materialize.  I went up 1 bucket to 3.25-3.5 while I wait for more information to confirm what exactly is happening.  I may go up to the last bucket just to be on the safe side.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Ice-free Arctic (Cryosphere Today SIA)
« on: July 17, 2013, 03:56:09 AM »
I believe 2017 is the first sub 1MM year.  This year the SSW really had a powerful impact on temperatures as oceanic heat was vented early and is not now available for bottom melting.  Next year I expect area to dip into the 1.7-1.8 range if no early venting happens.  2015 could be a possibility but you would need an early spring start followed by a warmer than average 80N.  If not 2015 then 2017.  Once you get to sub 1MM the trend line looks like 2030 for the first ice free summer.  The tail could be long after that.  The long-term CO2 record becomes important for an ice free Arctic.  If we reach 500ppm by Mid-century then an ice free Arctic may be possible. 

The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: July 07, 2013, 11:27:08 PM »
Ivica, Yes, they work cooperatively and competitively.  Interlocking Boards of Directors are the bane of Capitalism.  By having shared knowledge there is restricted competition and steady profit growth, both necessary for a successful business model.  So everyone in business is dependent on other businesses to survive and be successful.  Shared data mining, favorable political support (net positive tax cash flow), and Interlocking Boards of Directors are going to be with us for some time yet.

Yes, I would expect 2013 to shrink the area and extent differences with 2012 over the next seven days.  After that, 2012 ramps up area loss over the next seven days which 2013 will have difficulty matching.  Expect area difference of approximately 750k between 2012/2013 by Mid July.  IMHO Compaction from High Pressure will reduce 15-25% of area and extent difference by August 1.

For me weather remains the key.  The current cold trend for north of 80 degrees remains in place and currently is cooler than ever.  I would not be surprised to find that everything north of 80 continues as is and may even begin refreezing prior to the start of September.  If the weather changes then I will look at coming down a bin or two but either way this is a brief recovery year.  Given the strange weather and the warmth lurking in the Atlantic and now the Pacific too, a new low maximum ice area and volume for winter 2013 may result.  Perhaps even an early bottom melt beginning as early as March 1, 2014?

While extent has dropped rapidly in the last few days that pace will slow down significantly once Hudson and Baffin are gone.  Beaufort is going to be delayed and may not all melt out.  I expect part of ES to survive also.  The CAB is holding its own.  That makes a total of 4.03-4.08 for Sept. average.  The intrusion of a cyclone would change everything.  I do not yet see one on the 10 day.  After that insolation starts to decline rapidly.

Melt should be reaching its peak between now and mid July if my memory serves me correct.  There is a delay between peak insolation and actual melting as energy is transmitted into the ice from above and below.  This has been covered before but I don't remember the exact details. 

Summer is here!  1M down and counting this week.  If this area loss rate keeps for the next 2 weeks, and I expect it will, 2013 area will draw even with 2012 by the middle of July.  Extent shows no real signs of dropping off a cliff but who cares.  Transportation across the NP is not far away, even if it takes place through a sea of slush.  It might even help keep the barnacles to a minimum.

Antarctica / Re: Glaciology Basics and Risks - Uncertainties
« on: June 23, 2013, 12:21:29 AM »
Excellent post ASLR.  PIG and TG have potential to destabilize quickly if conditions warrant.  In-depth measurements and analysis point to a need for installation of long-term self-sustaining field equipment in the critical zones.  I understand better now why you fear their early collapse before the end of this century.  The more so if we begin experiencing strong El Nino events before the end of this decade.  I fear any strong El Nino because it can create havoc above and beyond what has already been happening.  My glaciology knowledge is a bit old but still useful.  I wonder if it would be possible to reduce development time and money by borrowing existing measurements and technologies from pavement strain experiments used by Engineers to build highways and bridges in various environments? 
There is nothing like watching and hearing glaciers flow.  I recommend everyone to do this at least once in their life.  Each glacier also has a unique geochemistry taking place between the glacier, basal objects carried by the glacier and the underlying rock on which it flows.  It is difficult for me to believe that within a few lifetimes glaciers, the insatiable ice dragons of the earth, could be destroyed by the fires of man is sad indeed.     

That is a wonderful visual Chris.  Well done.  High pressure tends to clear the atmosphere and let the sun shine through while low pressure tends toward cloudiness which actually could warm the atmosphere during the long arctic night but could help cool during sunlight hours.  But I have a question about the timing of convergence/divergence once an atmospheric pressure gradient forms.  Does someone keep information about the gradient strength vs. amount and duration of ice movement?  And I also have a question about whether sunlight can be focused by atmospheric lensing under high pressure regimes.  Is the size of a gradient anomaly enough to align light so that the temperature under the lens is warmer than the fringe?

Nightvid, Looks like an early opening Laptev Bite caused by warm water being deflected upwards by the shelf that extends into this area.  It is a localized artifact of the undersea landforms rather than a more generalized upwelling.  The early opening is almost certainly linked to the combination of rotten ice and the persistent cyclone.

We are currently 300k above 2012 area as we enter the 1MM 2012 drop zone.  I can only count about 700k of potential melt area in the next five days.  So 600k above 2012 by June 15.  Until Nares clears out  continued growth in Beaufort and CAA volume from cyclonic movement so 2.25-2.50 by minimum.  Just do not think ES and Beaufort are at as much risk this year.  CA may hold out despite its weakened condition if it has a source of ice from it's perimeter for replacment.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 09, 2013, 11:56:23 PM »
I was counting on the Nares to be open for business by the end of June.  Right now it looks as solid as stone.  Until the Nares breaks there is going to be continued thickening of ice in the Beaufort and the CAA.

Congratulations Chris.  I was not expecting this big a break until June 15.  I expect to have one or more triple century breaks before the end of June.  This one was close given the early date.  I suspect that the ice on the Canadian side is ridging up and hidden under the clouds.  Combined with the early fracturing, persistent cold, and slow down in Fram export the Beaufort may be a late comer to the melting party.  This should also delay the opening of the NW passage.  After a slow start Greenland is finally getting in the spirit of melt. The dome is still cold though, so just some peripheral melting for the next month or so.   

Walking the walk / Re: Threat - Response Levels
« on: June 06, 2013, 03:37:01 AM »
The oceans hold the key to all life on Earth.  Eventually, the oceans will cease absorbing CO2 and become a source of CO2.  Game over for all life on Earth's surface.  Honeybees are part of the early warning system.  As more and more land areas experience temperatures above 47.2C the bees will collapse and die from thermal exhaustion.  No predators or potent chemicals, just lots of heat.

Science / Re: Mauna Loa CO2
« on: June 05, 2013, 04:30:27 AM »
A part of the delay is the flooding here in the U.S.A. which has postponed much of the spring planting west of the Mississippi River.  If they are unable to get the corn in the ground soon we will see a rapid and substantial reduction in per/acre yield for this year especially if winter decides to come early.  Within 50 miles of where I live the percentage of corn planted and growing is close to zero.  The fields are standing quagmires of mud and flooded creeks and ponds.

Consequences / Re: Weird Weather
« on: June 03, 2013, 03:21:56 AM »
The polar jet and the subtropical jet are so weak and disorganized weather has become a regional disaster.  A blocking high in the Atlantic has formed early and further north than historical average.  Both central North America and Europe are wet and cold while western North America and eastern Europe are dry and hot with high fire danger.  Burn or flood seems to be the new weather and there is no change in the forecast future.  From a year without a winter to one without a summer back-to-back.  It's all about change.  I would not be surprised if we have an Atlantic hurricane that lasts for a month this year.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA
« on: June 02, 2013, 12:02:33 AM »
I'm waiting to declare summer melting in full swing when I see the first triple century melt day.

I am glad they are returning to a plastic rheology model for understanding ice dynamics.  IMHO it is necessary for a complete understanding of ice behavior.  It helps to describe the relationship between ice and underlying geology across time and sites.  In response to the missing years of ice coring samples, Did they do an inter comparison of the cores from various locations or are we dealing with just one or two cores?  I ask, because pits and holes formed from glacier sliding or ice sheet settling can result in bottom seizure and ice shearing.  If you happen to drill downstream of a pit a discontinuity may result.  Inter comparisons removes that possibility.   Lastly, A sampling of the ice milk at the ice/bedding plane interface  provides evidence for ice sheet chemistry and movement through the bedding plane over time.  Difficult to get though!

AbruptSLR,  What measurements would be needed to define an abrupt (2060) RIS melt out in progress.  Do we drill ice cores in 5 year increments?  Is there a quantification of predecessor events and their timing?  How do we separate out natural fluctuations from accelerated feed backs?  Is SLR the primary trigger for mechanical leveraging of ice fractures?  I suppose a 3D chart which integrates the primary drivers similar to the one demonstrating the retreat of Arctic Ice Volume might be a good place to start?  I agree that early loss of RIS and other buttresses of ice flow would have devastating impacts on global SLR.  It is difficult to imagine the loss of a mass of ice as thick as RIS in such a short period of time.  How many extra joules of energy would the ocean have to deliver over the next 50 years to make it possible?  I say extra because the floating ice beyond the RIS would have to be melted first each year.

Consequences / Re: When and how bad?
« on: May 20, 2013, 05:16:12 AM »
I wonder when the superbugs will begin to take over from the Ag Chemicals?  Will it be when the arctic ice is gone for the summer or will they wait until there is no ice at all.  Many insects have mutated defenses to individual chemicals.  Now they have to applied in combinations to have the desired control effect.  If the bugs win will they consume everything?

2.1 by September 9.  Variable weather takes us to 2.6.  A busy fram results in 1.6-1.8. Hence the median response.  By July 15, we'll know for sure.

Arctic background / Re: Arctic climate sensitivity: 8C/400ppm CO2
« on: May 11, 2013, 05:03:44 AM »
If the baseline co2 is similar then how long before this level of change is thermometer verified in our current world?  How long was the lag before full effects were measurable historically?

I am voting for 2.1 SIA.  I think volume is going to drop below 2,000km3.  Thinner ice tends to spread out increasing SIE over 2012's but decreasing SIA slightly.  I still think it will be 2017 before we see a month long ice free arctic but 2015 is looking like at least a few days ice free.  That is really a scary thought!  I am now more inclined to believe we will see a long thin tail of persistent ice for several years before all the ice vanishes during summer because irradiance peaks this year and then begins a long decline.

Either Crandle's or Slow Wing's bucket sizes will work.  I think most of us think of a range of estimates as satisfying our decision making processes rather than a point estimate.  Over on the ASIB many used ranges, including myself.  Perhaps as we get closer to minimum, ranges can be pruned and standard deviations tightened to make tracking easier.

Hydroelectricity generation has the highest Energy Return on Investment (EROI) according to an April 2013 Scientific American article.  Ranked according to EROI, hydroelectricity and easily extracted oil and natural gas top the list.  The author's list is based on mankind's current need to sustain an energy EROI of 5-9 to maintain current lifestyle and provide growth.  Wind, biomass from sugarcane and switchgrass and solar all supply the necessary EROI.  Tar sands, ethanol from maize and fracturing of oil and natural gas fields failed to meet the minimum.  Sounds like BAU with a twist.  Without a Hansen style global carbon tax the future looks bleak indeed.     

The AMSR2 is showing what looks like a significant amount of snow melt and ponding in Hudson Bay and across the Central Arctic.  I would be very interested in what the ice underneath all that snow is really like.  Perhaps we will find out in a few days if this push of warm air is followed shortly by another warm pulse after the upcoming cool down in North America.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Accelerated melting.
« on: April 19, 2013, 06:09:34 AM »
April 17 IJIS extent and Cryosphere Today area are only 188,000 km2 apart.  I am somewhat surprised that they are this close.  As melting accelerates their difference grows reflecting what each measures.  But as ice thins and volume shrinks do we really need either measurement?  As shipping across the Arctic gets closer and closer to the North Pole the churning of their propellers will hasten ice melting and permanent removal.  If we get a strong dipole and lots of sun could this be the year when their measurements grow closer together instead of farther apart?

Gray Wolf, The crumple zones in the Ross Ice Shelf might also be stretch marks that reflect differences in speeds between parts of the shelf.  As Lunar cycles come and go the floating section of the shelf gets tugged by tidal currents while the anchored sections remain locked in place.  Eventually melting from underneath will thin the floating portion of the shelf to the extent that it will become a very large free floating berg.  Probably in the 2200-2300 time frame?

Consequences / Re: ITCZ (InterTropical Convergence Zone) to move
« on: April 07, 2013, 01:27:51 AM »
I will be reading that study.  Movement of the ITCZ has implications planet wide, especially in the location of the Hadley/Ferrell cells and location of the trade wind belts.

Melting on the Atlantic side is in full swing as well.  Following intrusion of Atlantic water from north of Svalbard to north of Franz Joseph the ice is thinning.  Any guesses on how long it will be before the northern route is open?  With Pacific water hammering on the Bering and ES Seas and Atlantic water plowing a path past Svalbard and Franz Joseph.   

Any plans to measure glacier forward momentum so comparison to prior years is possible?  Also height of melting between years?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic sea ice free (extent)
« on: March 30, 2013, 02:28:33 AM »
I agree with you Jim.  Summer drought in the U.S. and Europe/Russia is more likely due to sluggish weather patterns.  Cold in winter/Hot in Summer and much much drier during growing season.  All-in-all a truly ugly and dangerous long-term change for mankind.  Planning for change is difficult for all living things.  Unfortunately, failure is an option.

Good news for relatively unpopulated wilderness areas and former abused grazing lands.  However, once man has poisoned the land with chemicals, leachate, garbage etc. remediation is much more difficult.  I found that preplanning for seasonality is necessary for growing and maintaining usable land, much as this video makes clear.  Guesswork = failure.  Observations are critical.  Timing is everything!  Prioritizing what is going to happen each and every day requires consistent attention to detail.  He did not mention how they would handle natural fire or droughts.  Questions to follow up on.

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will we see open ocean at the north pole?
« on: March 28, 2013, 02:26:10 AM »
Since I believe that area will drop below 1Mk in 2017 I vote for an ice free ocean at the North Pole in late August 2016 say August 25-31 from the Kara Sea.  The ice above the 85th parallel will be the last to go but if it gets thin enough to be driven by wind and tides then open ocean at the North Pole may precede a general melt out.  On the other hand it could be that another example of last year's powerful summer storm coupled with weak unanchored ice could create an open/slushy ocean hole near the North Pole that is to big to call a Polyna but without a connecting channel to a nearby sea.  Perhaps this summer!

The forum / Re: Thanks for setting up the forum
« on: March 26, 2013, 12:38:08 AM »
Neven, This forum is terrific!  I love being able to reach new posts quickly on specific topics.  I sense that the blog and forum have become teachers of all things Arctic and why it is important.  Interpreting the language of climate science so that it is understandable to the merely curious gives the blog and forum a value far beyond the science research and measurements that they support.  We need to get the word out to a wider sampling of the general public, but how?  Do you think we could be or should be linked in on other science sites or other sites around the world?  Education sites and government sponsored science sites come to mind.   

Developers Corner / Re: Excel - Spreadsheeting sea ice basics.
« on: March 25, 2013, 05:19:53 AM »
Chris, Your explanations have triggered some old memories of my days manipulating financial information.  I look forward to further posts.  I am available to help part-time with inputting if the need arises.  It has been 10 years since I last looked at a Pitot table and used a four way split screen to watch data flowing into the final presentation.  I would have to brush up on my If-then and other excel short cuts in order to be really useful.  Think I'll visit my local library and reread Excel again.  Maybe its time to lose some of the rust in my brain.

Policy and solutions / Re: A radical plan
« on: March 24, 2013, 04:32:49 AM »
GFWellman,  You are right about the ancillary technology being needed.  One important piece can be found at "" where a 250kwh electromechanical battery is described as operational and available for hospitals, businesses, wind farms, solar and individuals in rural locations etc.  The other necessary piece is marketplace demand.  Here in the U.S. we operate on a 120V system.  In Europe its 240V.  These correspond to SAE j1772 levels 1 & 2.  Japan uses level 3 which utilizes 200-600V DC under 400A for a total of 240kw.  California is seriously considering this level.  Heat from the 250kwh battery has almost been eliminated and DC flowing through superconducting materials or using inductance via magnetic fields should fill batteries with little heat effect.  This all may come to fruition only if the price of electricity is less than ICE fuel.  Personally, I think $5-6 per gallon may be my limit.  I generally refill once a week whether I really need to or not and my alternative is biking when possible.

Policy and solutions / Re: A radical plan
« on: March 24, 2013, 12:57:37 AM »
 Lawrence Livermore Laboratory has engineered a composite plug that will enable higher voltages and reduced loss of current for daily public recharge use at refill stations.  Estimated time to refill a standard electric car battery array is 5-8 minutes.  Time to commercial deployment is estimated at 5 years - assuming commercial demand.  The key has been development of manufacturing techniques for layering of superconducting materials that can withstand high temperatures and swings in temperatures for extended periods of time.  This should make electric cars comparable to ICE for long trips.  Change is coming!!

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