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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« Last post by pearscot on Today at 09:19:23 PM »
Wow the export out of the Fram today is impressive and has been for a while now. I tried to make this as compact as possible, but hopefully this more clearly illustrates the power of the wind and how quickly it has moved the ice around. According to windy, winds are ripping thru the strait at around 40kt.

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The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« Last post by Sigmetnow on Today at 09:18:37 PM »
Quote
Lot of people say they are underwhelmed by the first flight on another planet.

It looks easy, but the atmosphere on the surface of Mars is so thin that it's the equivalent of flying at ~100k feet [19 miles; 30 km] on Earth.

No rotorcraft, piloted or uncrewed, has ever broken 50k on Earth.   
https://twitter.com/dmoberhaus/status/1384220716879343621
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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll
« Last post by pearscot on Today at 09:08:50 PM »
I'm guessing May 9th this year (I put in the 5/6-5/10)! Last year I guessed the 5th, but think it will be a little bit later. Always an interesting event to watch unfold.
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Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« Last post by Red Kite on Today at 09:04:13 PM »
https://youtu.be/_seCNGCxkMQ?t=432 F-16 Viper Cockpit Video • Exercise Amalgam Dart 2021
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Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« Last post by The Walrus on Today at 09:01:46 PM »
data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

It is difficult not to believe that the total reported cases of 142 million is a gross understimate. The attached table shows this 142 million equates to just 1.8% of the world population, while the USA figure is 9.7%, France  8.1% and Germany 3.8%.

However, for me the scary figure is India - just 1.1%, not because of any inaccuracy in that figure, but because of recent developments. The anecdotal evidence of young being more affected, possibly by new variants, in India (and Brazil) is getting very strong (e.g. news article below).


In addition to India, I do not trust the numbers from China, the Russian republics, or most of Africa.  South Africa, Libya, and Tunisia have official infection rates around 2.5%.  Maybe the virus did not infect those areas in between,  But if the rest of the continent was infected at a similar rate, about 30 million cases would be added to the worldometer totals.
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The rest / Re: War, War, War
« Last post by vox_mundi on Today at 08:53:42 PM »
EU Estimates 150,000 Russian Troops Near Ukraine’s Borders
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-europe-russia-emmanuel-macron-moscow-99c823234a9aab2db67ddfabba98177a

BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union’s foreign policy chief has estimated that more than 150,000 Russian troops have already amassed for the biggest military buildup ever near Ukraine’s borders and that it will only take “a spark” to set off a confrontation.

... More dangerous at this time, Borrell said, was the massing of Russian troops, including military field hospitals, and “all kinds of warfare.” The risk of further escalation — it’s evident,” he told reporters after the meeting.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AFP/status/1384136829843107846
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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2021 melting season
« Last post by gerontocrat on Today at 08:38:33 PM »
Is it my imagination or did we see over 100k sq. km of sea ice exit the central basin via Fram duirng April? I used the Worldview area function to estimate the area of ice north of the Fram that went zipping out between the shoulder of Greenland and northwestern Svalbard.
As at least one floe was tracked along 280km over several weeks (upthread I think), and considering the width of the exported front is several hundred kilometers, your estimate makes sense.
I tried some arithmetic

Looking at Wipneus' Fram Export graph suggests an average export volume rate of about 0.4 thousand km3 per month for the first half of April. i.e. 200 km3 (say) left the building.

1 km3 of ice at 1 metre thick covers 1,000 km2.
So if the average ice thickness exported was 2 metres, total area exported would be 500 x 200 = 100,000 km2.

Arithmetic rules again, OK?
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Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« Last post by Shared Humanity on Today at 08:37:22 PM »
data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

It is difficult not to believe that the total reported cases of 142 million is a gross understimate. The attached table shows this 142 million equates to just 1.8% of the world population, while the USA figure is 9.7%, France  8.1% and Germany 3.8%.

I am certain that the number of cases reported is far lower than the actual number of cases due to the large number of asymptomatic cases that are never verified. This undercount is occurring everywhere. I also believe deaths are far higher than reported, particularly in third world countries where it is not required to even officially record deaths, never mind not properly attributing the cause of death. If you want to get any sense of the IFR, you should look at the numbers from a developed nation that has a solid health care system and more likely to be transparent with the data.
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The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« Last post by vox_mundi on Today at 08:29:10 PM »
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Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« Last post by Shared Humanity on Today at 08:27:36 PM »

So 0.16% of the Peruvian population.

Which would support your contention that the IFR is 0.15% if every single Peruvian has already contracted the virus.
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