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Messages - Pi26

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Arctic sea ice / Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« on: December 25, 2017, 08:12:41 AM »
From 11653621 km2 (December 24 2017) to 12096796 km2 (lowest December 31 value in 2016) now 443175 km2 (63311 km2 per day) required to miss a new lowest record.

For 3rd place 77K km2 per day required.

I guess a new record low, because the currently warm arctic.

Forseeable if we watch and measure the heating season instead simply the melting season only?

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 23, 2017, 03:16:10 PM »
Hmmm.  What would be better?

Is odd for place 5 so small, because it is has such a small range?

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 23, 2017, 01:52:32 PM »
Extent for 8/22:  5003285 (drop of 44622; 5th lowest for this date).

Live version of the predict-o-matic now says 4.27 (range 4.03-4.51).  There is a 41% chance of 4th place and a 48% chance of 6th place.  Complete list of odds:

1st place:  0%
2nd place:  2%
3rd place:  3%
4th place: 41%
5th place:  4%
6th place:  48%
7th place:  3%
8th place or higher: 0%

Extent losses similar to those from 2007-2016 for the remaining days of the season would result in a 2017 minimum of 4.11 to 4.45.

That output totally works against my logic module  :o ;)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 19, 2017, 08:40:35 PM »
Would it be safe to say that one of the NW passage routes is now open/navigable?


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 19, 2017, 04:54:27 PM »
I mean once again very old and important "extend" from north of greenland here goes around the corner to south.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 19, 2017, 02:50:38 PM »
In 20 days tops, this is over.

Sept. 7 is not that early.  I believe last year the minimum occurred on that date, and 2015 was a day later.  Later dates are the exception.  With a colder Atlantic and snows in Greenland, I would tend to agree with that date, if not earlier.

I prefer to look at the refreeze on november 5 to see how last melting season really did, because the first quarter of freezing season also shows how much heat was left in water.
I am most afraid of the energy capacity chucki has to discharge (while melting season or even much later)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 16, 2017, 09:08:53 PM »
The north of Greenland cools now, it's about -10 °C today. Air temperatures in the ocean still above melting point.
The animation below shows snapshots in 8 AUG and today.
Need a click

And in 13th august the situation there was also clearly visible.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 13, 2017, 08:44:45 PM »
Image from the cyclon (< 980 hPa) east of Greenland near Svalbard.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 13, 2017, 08:14:33 PM »
Much ice north of FJL and Svalbard seems doomed.

Worldview images from today.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 13, 2017, 11:29:08 AM »
The lower-bound for September average from the Slater's forecast model was 4.5 M km^2, which occurred in the first half of  September.

But seems in a few days the observed line has to continue horizontally until september 20?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 09, 2017, 10:51:40 PM »
According to the 06Z Environment Canada synopsis the latest cyclone is down to 980 hPa MSLP:

Some hours later ECMWF had it at 977 mb and forecasts it at 974 mb 24 hours later.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 07, 2017, 10:54:55 PM »
What will the storm do after 3 days...?

This world only will do whatever a world must do, after humans did what humans must do. 😎

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 07, 2017, 03:11:27 PM »
Much more fast ice around Greenland mobilizes.
Images from 7th and 3rd August.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 04, 2017, 05:42:37 PM »

I agree that this freeze season should be riveting....I will be here daily all winter.

And where will you stay in october, november and december? 😎

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 23, 2017, 09:07:12 PM »
Today Worldview has very clear but imho horrible images of the area north from Svalbard and north to north east from Greenland.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (mid July update)
« on: July 19, 2017, 07:50:13 PM »
Fram daily export was more negative than positive in the first 15 days in July. IOW it was more like import, all according to the PIOMAS model.

Yes, it was more like an import of a Trojan Horse   :-\

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 01, 2017, 11:37:26 PM »
This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly/September average minimum

What is an "average minimum"?  For each day in september you go plus and minus 15 days to get a monthly average and then take the minimum of those 30 samples?

These are the September minimums for the last 12 years ...

    2012: 3.63

You used "September average" on the poll title, then said it was the "September average minimum", then gave data for the "September minimum"...  I'm a computer programmer and a math major, can we be more literal and consistent? ;D

Charctic says that the NSIDC 2012 September daily minimum was 3.387, so presumably we are consistently not talking about that.

I could not find that comment of Neven within this thread, even if he answered you here COMPLETLY OFFTOPIC ;)
But then I found (probably inspired by Adam Riese) you tried to post into another thread?:o ::

Arctic sea ice / NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 01, 2017, 08:10:24 PM »
In comes another century extent loss, this time area loss is even
Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
East Siberian Sea
562.6  -20.0  -155.8   

ESS SIA - seems a fast growing dangerous burner gets tanked up as never before.
Anomaly could reach -200K km2 within a week?

Arctic sea ice / Re: How soon could we go ice free?
« on: June 01, 2017, 12:40:22 AM »
Hmmm, maybe I should change the thread title to 'How soon could we go sweat-free?'.  ;)

But not before year 3500?

Arctic sea ice / Re: How soon could we go ice free?
« on: May 31, 2017, 03:23:13 PM »
magnamentis, that's the ability for warm-blooded creatures (including us) to lose metabolic heat.  If we cannot lose the heat generated by our own metabolic processes, we experience cell death both apoptotic and necrotic, leading to death.  Any place that experiences temperatures that make it thermodynamically impossible to lose metabolic heat, even for a few hours, becomes uninhabitable.

Parts of Iran, Pakistan and India have already come close.

...See also:

Before 2019. And were the previous generations of most of our geoengineers (and someone hundret other different "actors" in "our" "modern" world) farmer kids less than two centuries before?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« on: January 18, 2017, 08:10:02 AM »
Thanks Tealight, for me your AWP-image is the best arctic overview.
But You should additional show the numbers of Albedo-Melting-Potential in meters of ice -  would be 1/60 of Kwh numbers?

Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: December 28, 2016, 06:37:35 PM »
We only have till sometime in February until the melting ends....and February will likely be "flatish" one more month of any significant melting.....and then the attention turns to the North...

With additional some hundret Petawatthours that heated into these waters, because we had since mid November always 1.5-2.0 M km2 less SIE than usual, melting ends probably in March or as soon it is done completly.

And I think REALLY, that not the antarctic and arctic will have issues in the next years, but we all.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: November 15, 2016, 08:54:39 PM »
SIE is an anachronistic metric and should be avoided as much as possible [...]
The appropriate metric to watch is sea ice VOLUME as produced by PIOMAS

The two are not comparable: one is data, one is a model.  You need both.  The only data we have on volume is Cryosat, which is still quite experimental and nowhere near as high resolution or as detailed as SIE/SIA measurements.

I am absolutly sure Jai always uses both - but prefers from November clearly volume.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: November 06, 2016, 09:37:27 PM »
The antarctic SIE is supposed to hit record low today.

The NSIDC daily number has already "hit record low" a couple of times:

Most recently 16.29 million km² on November 3rd. The 5 day trailing average may well follow suit shortly.

Really? Twice as much open waters to date than usual at Beaufort, Chuckchi and East Sibirian Sea?
700000 km2 more open waters? I think these waters have to realease at least 50000 billions kWh of energy for a single meter of ice there - and perhaps these waters even could release far more energy.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: September 02, 2016, 01:40:28 PM »
  :o very precise melting now:

...a lot of perfect horizontal or vertical light blue little  lines/rectangles on zoom in:

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 31, 2016, 04:25:24 PM »
Yes, Slow wing. 2.4 M km2 would fill 2/3 of the entire sea area inside 10 degrees from the pole.
For me This animation seems to show remaining ice from 1.2-1.5 M km2.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 11, 2016, 10:20:05 PM »

Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: July 13, 2016, 12:41:49 PM »
I think in the next 2-3 weeks the developement within the area between 70-83N from 160W to 110E is very important. Currently I mean there is good extend but too less volume.

My vote is 1.75-2.00. The atlantik was too early and deep within 80N and prepared thus by pumping heat the later melt of entire eurasian half within the circle above 80N. After 3 dC higher January-March temperatures there that ice was also not the strongest from beginning.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 09, 2016, 07:06:38 PM »
Melting season 2012 ended 16th September at 3 million km2 extend (JAXA). If we define +/- 1 Million km2 as hype, then currently nearly the majority already hype by that amount upwards. Because we are currently nearby on par with 2012 extend values the positive extend hype is 4 million km2 for melting season end as the negative hype is at 2 million km2.
There are 70 days to go - so, please allow my downward hype of 14000 km2 more average melt of "difficult" ice per remaining day against 2012, because i think this 2016 "difficult ice" melts at least as much easier.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 26, 2016, 12:37:33 AM »
Errors are no problem, as long as they are made consistently,

What else?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: May 01, 2016, 09:29:04 AM »
Then every km2 sea ice as 1000 pieces gets factor 1.2 to 1.5 more surface against water. Together with moving (also more transfer) averaged energy transfer and thereby melting rates soon could be factor 1.5 - even at factor 1.15 overall most arctic sea ice goes before melt season ends?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« on: March 14, 2016, 02:21:02 AM »
I am going to pull stuff from university...

But if ice, cold air, cold water and snow are our wortfhul ressources there, exactly as much cold air there gets consumed for producing snow from imported humidity. I think much snow in central arctic shows, that humidity came to far to north and especially late added snow is no real win.
Or is it?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« on: March 09, 2016, 06:14:28 PM »
Pi26: it's highly unlikely that the SIE number as of NSIDC would be below 11,5 Mn km2. Less than 11,5 Mn km2 by June 1 is also pretty hard to reach as it would probably be a new record low for that date.


I ment the problem starts, when we have clearly to less ice in the worlds airconditioner and not when there is no ice past summer.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« on: March 09, 2016, 04:22:31 PM »

That part I get... but what the reduction in winter heat loss translates to in terms of subsequent summer ice loss is less obvious (to me at least). My guess (and it's little more than that) is that in the past it generally wouldn't have changed much at all near the surface since the ~0-10m depth temperature and salinity are pretty-much self-stabilizing as long as the ice sheet is unbroken.

...but even so the reduced winter losses contribute to the energy reservoir lower down accumulating over time. What I was trying to get at in my earlier comment was that once the surface sheet is no longer unbroken over a large area, big waves and mixing between the ice and the warmer, more saline lower layers becomes possible. At that point, I'd speculate, it all goes at once.

Anyway less than 11.5 million km2 ice extension at end of April will imho raise bad global climate problems during such summers. And for me currently it looks like 11.25 to 11.75 million km2 at May 1.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: September 01, 2015, 09:24:04 PM »
Yes, that may be true for the ice itself. But the cold air being held by it in one place it's another story. The jetstream anomalies are expected to ramp up exponentially as soon as the ice is gone.
Making weather chaos in the NH permanent.u
And we haven't touched on the issue of clathrates.plo

Its all about cooling capacity. Clearly the available cooling capacities at the arctic work different and shared. But I think global warming already is driven several times stronger by lost cooling capacities (including all glacier melting and albedo) than by burnings. Dangerous much more cooling capacity maybe lost soon.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: September 01, 2015, 02:42:53 PM »

Really, it's a very long list. There is no one mechanism, there is just all kinds of bad stuff going on moving in and out of phase. Had we had 2007 weather this summer, new lows in area and volume,

This Summer was very warm for the Northern Hemisphere and for the Arctic in particular. Google "global temperatures NOAA" if you wish. As for the Arctic, see the current SSTs, for instance (I don't mind cherry-picking this time)

BTW, right now this map shows an interesting fact: the area of ocean heat excess that is contributing most to direct melting right now is that yellowish area in Beaufort/Chukchi, because even when there is just 1 C of above average temperature, this will keep bottom and lateral melt of dispersed and broken ice for a good while (google "ITP buoy arctic" and "mil buoy arctic" and "greatwhitecon").

Nice image Diablobanquisa. See in the map green/blueish area around the Laptev's bite's bite.

For the rest of the world the Arctic Airconditioner always seems completly melted, as soon it requires its ice mostly to cool its local waters and air. Seems currently already from beginning of August?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 31, 2015, 12:43:11 PM »
Killian, 6roucho,

....However would it be expected to have a four year period? I suspect not, I would expect a random periodicity, which with a sufficently large dataset (e.g. parallel runs in a model), might have similar frequency domain charateristics but not a regular cycle (e.g. 4 years in every run of the model).

I think melting water from sea ice puts in its slow moving cooling capacity.

1. A lot of ice melts and its melting water cools the local water - helps to (nearby) refreeze
2. All melts again but expands wider and refreezes
3. All melts again but expands too wide
4. It has expanded far too wide

The duration may vary with the melting volume

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 31, 2015, 09:06:32 AM »
Code: [Select]
[quote author=AySz88 link=topic=1149.msg62366#msg62366 date=1441001780]
[quote author=ChrisReynolds link=topic=1149.msg62301#msg62301 date=1440917792]
[img width=483 height=409][/img]

p-value = Chance of a random ordered set of 12 years...

Clearly when ice melts there is fast cooling as it consumes warmth immediatly, but also slow cooling until the ice water heats up to world wide average temperature.

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