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Messages - Peter Ellis

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 21, 2020, 07:57:43 PM »

Usually I am read only here. However, this one rises a question. Looking at the avg. thickness, would it be possible to see a stall or even drop in extend/area in early November with increased bottom melt?

No. The pattern is that after September, ice in the center starts to thicken (that's why the chart goes up in Sept-Oct). Then after October, new , very thin ice starts to form on the edges. This pulls down average thickness. It's not that ice starts to thin in October, or November. So, first, just as an example, you have 1 m thick ice in the middle, which thickens to 2 m, then a lots of new, say 50 cm ice forms, so average thickness falls to 1,25 m.

You won't get a BOE in November.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 25, 2020, 07:28:23 AM »
I have a simple and fast way of knowing how bad the actual weather (forecast) is for the ice. I simply count how many posts Friv does during the day


Based on this metric, the outlook is pretty bad

 :) :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: April 18, 2020, 12:23:30 AM »
The Polar Vortex Looks Happy...

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 03, 2019, 04:25:51 PM »
let's say extent loses cease. Yay.

Where do the extra heat goes? If the sides are not melting but the sun is still shining, where all that heat goes?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 15, 2019, 04:11:41 PM »
There's a good view for the first time in a long time on the ice that's left in the ESS. I'm absolutely gobsmacked to see how long that ice is lasting. I think I predicted a month ago that it would only last a few more days. Yet today, it's still there... Amazing! That was a good lesson!
You really only need to look at Hudson Bay to understand that what worldview shows as pretty wispy strands of ice can survive for a long time - the Bay has had SSTs around 6C but the SST around that ice has remained around 0C. We forget that the max resolution in WV is 10km/inch and some of those clumps in the wispy areas may be 30km long and 10km wide and represent a pretty large volume of remaining ice. And the surface SST around the clump is cooled by the surrounding wisps.

Without a lot of stormy mixing of the water and movement of the ice, the wisps can hang on for weeks - that said, the week to week clear images still show significant decreases and the wisps in the ESS are doomed this year.

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 29, 2019, 11:55:15 PM »
I guess that is like trying to calculate the earth’s energy budget by focusing solely on incoming solar energy during the daytime hours.

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 25, 2019, 10:57:12 PM »
Just finished an exhausting forced march through this thread since my last visit. That's 40 minutes of my life I will never get back. When I would stumble upon a comment that actually had content, I struggled to connect with it due to the morass of detritus that preceded it.

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 24, 2019, 04:18:13 AM »
I also think Sam's numbered comments has it about right.

Particularly this:
2) the transition is abrupt, though non-linearities soften that slightly. The first day, week or month of BOE isn't likely to cause the collapse. But, it won't take much more than that to cause an abrupt state transition in both the atmospheric and oceanic circulation with cataclysmic impact on the Earth's biota, fauna, and us. The transition is likely to take about 3-8 years. And with the beginning imminent in 3-8 years itself, that puts us ~11 years +/- ~6 years from that transition to a radically different system. Those are my guesstimates.

Your other comments have it about right also.

I trust you are being sarcastic? How did the last 15-20 BOE not have a "cataclysmic impact on the Earth's biota, fauna" and the last 3 on "us", but this one will?

And how can you take seriously someone who posts lots of links to peer reviewed papers that do not agree with what he is saying, and then "guesstimates" the time it takes the global climate to undergo incredible, severe and cataclysmic changes to a few years.

Is this some sort of end-of-world cultism that has taken hold in this thread?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 21, 2018, 12:37:58 PM »
Im guessing you are reading from an undergraduate thermodynamics textbook and pretending to be an expert.
This guess, I can tell you, is wrong. The rest is your opinion.

There are many, many things we don't know about the arctic.  If you have a theory great!   But don't call it "established scientific fact" unless you can point to undisputed peer reviewed journal articles that have established those facts through observational data. 
Ok, perhaps it is the way Wayne asserted that "surface temperature". Does he mean water surface? In which case I don't have to go to any peer-reviewed paper: the continuity of temperature across the interface of bodies on different states (solid-liquid-gas) is something I have measured in the lab, imposed as boundary conditions in the computational lab, and frankly I hope it is "common understanding" in this high-level educated forum.

If he means 2m temperature, or temperature measured at land nearby the coast where he is or was doing his ice measurements, then that is a different story. I suscribe to what Binntho and Tor say above. A temperature well under freezing (as measured in land, near the freezing ocean) is required for a period of time because water is releasing its latent heat, and if you go down near the water and place a thermometer near the surface, it will be nonetheless -2C. That the (land) temperature has to be under -11C, for some uncertain period of time, well I doubt it. Everything will depend on which sea is this being measured and what type of sea (shallow or deep, salty or less salty) it is, if ocean currents reach the place, what was the ocean temperature at the surface and in depth to start with, if the location is open coast or some narrow inlet, etc etc.

Then we have temperatures well into the ocean. As people are observing these days, freezing is happening with now-casts showing 2M air temperatures of around -5C. Not so far from -1.8C. This year, for instance, the Beaufort sea has not warmed as much as other years during summer, so we are observing this flash refreeze around the ice remains that almost disappeared. The reason is simple, temperatures did not build up much above freezing, and not much time and not much low temperatures are required to get the water surface at freezing temperature and the overall heat balance negative. Ocean in relative calm, absent of heat transport from beneath, and of mechanical effects that would delay the formation of sizeable ice structures (not the delay of freezing certainly), well there you go.

It is nothing against the person of Wayne, but he has a PUBLIC blog where he does PUBLIC claims, and as such one can criticize his public persona for doing such bold claims that, honestly, do not make much sense to me, and open up the door to pseudo-science. Like Goddard, Watts, Trump and the likes are routinely (and correctly IMO) criticized here.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 21, 2018, 11:31:03 AM »

New sea ice starts from 3 important concurring factors: -1.8 C water, little or no sea waves and colder than -11 C surface temperatures....

...  there is an apparent thermal balance,  where as,  colder than -11 C  surface air seems
imperative for sea ice to form.WD October 4, 2016   

So far -11 degrees for sea ice formation looks like a load of....
There is an observation showing a correlation and if you can't think of a model to fit the data then it's probably your understanding that's a load and not the observation! Don't dismiss observations because you don't like them.

My guess is the water can't lose enough heat rapidly enough through cooling air. The cooling top layer of the ocean becomes dense and circulates as it loses heat. You end up with a pattern of insulating cold air and circulating water that warms as you circulate the top 100m of the ocean. Not conducive to forming ice.

I thought that it was that the IR loss of both the ocean and the atmosphere producing the correct conditions for ice formation. An under those conditions the atmosphere is -11C and the water at freezing point. The freezing water is going to make a lot of heat as ice forms.
I rather thought that I would be shot down, but it was worth it.

My conclusion is - is that once again one is in an on-going lack of data situation. Wayne's observations were about one location in the Arctic (the Archipelago) over one small? period of time. That location includes lots of land(?) which is a very different environment than, say, the Central Arctic, itself very different from, say, , Hudson Bay. I am sure that his observations were methodical and accurate but surely not sufficient to make a general rule applicable to all the Arctic (and not to the Northern Caspian Sea - see a post some way back).

The comments on the -11 air temperature "rule of thumb" illustrated the many factors involved in sea ice formation, but none pointed to a study or series of studies that collected data over many locations with different environmental conditions. So is it a case of knowing all the parameters but not being able to put values on them?

I look at a current GFS map of Arctic temperatures as of today and it is nearly all below freezing.  Do I follow blindly the -11 degree rule and as a generalisation say there is not much of the Arctic where ice is going to form?

I am confused.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 21, 2018, 12:58:15 AM »
I'm grateful that Wayne took temperature measurements and photographs and posted them to add to the very limited 'on the ground' information available to us.
The solar ray deflection measurements to determine ice thickness, plus those comments at Neven’s over the many years that have proven more often wrong than right? Like the predictions of summer wall-to-wall clear skies (the Big Blue or something like that) done during some recent years that ended with cloudest summers? Yes, yes, very valuable.

Why do we have a thread called ‘what the buoys are telling’, and not one ‘What Wayne is telling’ given his invaluable on the ground insights?

Sorry I like the guy, he seems nice and all and always responds to everyone very civic way, but he is at odds with established scientific facts, and one has to reject that from the outset.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 27, 2018, 12:02:03 PM »
I really get tired in this once great forum, to check for many posts here, if the claims made are actually wrong or just "fake news". But it seems that the "alternate facts" have also made it to the Arctic. And many people here just don't seem to care, if claims are actually true, as long as it fits into the general The-Arctic-is-doomed-narrative.

Quoting for posterity and future use.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 17, 2018, 03:37:18 PM »
Wowwwww @ NPAC ridging

Knockout blow...

With all of these spectacular events and knock out blows, the ice remains remarkably resilient by every measure available.

Long term, Arctic ice is doomed. This melt season is not proving to be the knock out blow and this is due to a lack of clear skies where the sun can precondition the ice for later melt. A cloudy Arctic is not conducive to melt.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 25, 2018, 07:15:57 AM »
enuff with the long winded speculations and hyperbolic predictions ...

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