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Messages - Dr Freeze

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 26, 2019, 08:44:26 PM »
Temps during planting season 2010-2019

&

Temps rolling 7 day July to date

both click to runs

I don't like it when comparisons from different years use different colour scales to represent temperatures, it implys a greater difference in temperatures between the years.  I wouldn't have caught it if it wasn't that I thought it strange that Greenland was so much colder in 2019 than 2010.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 13, 2019, 11:38:53 PM »
So Be cause, has at the bottom of his posts 2007-2012-2016-2019?  which clearly indicated top melt years 5, then 4 then 3 years apart.  the majority of contributors think that 2019 will a top 3 year for area.  If so does that make the prediction correct, and if so does that make the next record melt year 2021?

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: July 08, 2019, 08:29:31 PM »
while I agree with what you are saying it just seems that the ice keeps lifting off the coast there this year.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: July 08, 2019, 05:30:58 PM »
Does anyone think that there is a chance this year that a third route might open up this year, the third route being the ice free zone just north of the Canadian arctic islands all the way to north of Greenland.  Personally I don't think I would want to travel it in case the winds shift and blew the ice back towards the coast.  But it seems like this year so much of the MYI that clings to these islands have lifted off.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: How soon could we go ice free?
« on: June 20, 2018, 06:58:21 PM »
Yes, that graph is from 89 ensemble runs under RCP8.5 emission scenario.  The mean value is still above 1.0 M km2 by 2100.  The large variability is due to how much weight is placed on various factors, such as albedo, clouds, radiation losses, and observational data. 

Due to the non-normal distribution of the models mean should not be counted, median is the correct value to use.  Basically the models in red are ridiculous outliers that are shifting the mean too high.

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