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Messages - Human Habitat Index

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The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: August 04, 2020, 04:55:49 AM »
"The reliability of COVID-19 tests is uncertain due to the limited evidence base"

" The extent to which a positive PCR result correlates with the infectious state of an individual is still being determined"

That is correct. A PCR test being positive doesn't mean the patient is infectious. There are also false negatives. Has nothing to do with the message of this so-called doctor though.

So the tests used to determine the extent of restrictions and lockdowns that are affecting billions of people around the world are inaccurate and that doesn't bother you ?

Kary Mullis, who received the Nobel Prize for inventing the PCR test, said that the test was not suitable as a diagnostic tool because it does not quantify a virus load.

Kary Mullis died 7 August 2019.

Event 201
The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation hosted Event 201, a high-level pandemic exercise on October 18, 2019, in New York, NY. The exercise illustrated areas where public/private partnerships will be necessary during the response to a severe pandemic in order to diminish large-scale economic and societal consequences.

Also on October 18 2019 the opening ceremony of the World Military Games in Wuhan China

In July 2019, the citizens of Wuhan protested about the toxic air pollution that was making them sick

China tops WHO list for deadly outdoor air pollution
More than 1 million people died from dirty air in one year, according to World Health Organisation

Science / Re: Magnitude of future warming
« on: June 18, 2020, 03:24:56 AM »
In my opinion based on following climate change since the 70s is that ECS, like the uncertainty of the preindustrial baseline, is a tool for obfuscation.

Why the doubling of co2, what is magical about that standard ?

After Copenhagen, I became a raging conspiracy theorist, leading me to discover many inconvenient truths in many areas besides CC.

But overall the momentum of industrial civilisation just overwhelms everything.

So I am a rational doomist because the situation is irreversible.

Anecdotally we have had clear unusually chilly nights in southern Australia, consistent with the effect of less aerosols in the atmosphere.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: June 08, 2020, 01:57:25 AM »
This is still my favorite visual of climate change.
Large online version

Click to play

Add 1750 to 1850-1900 and we probably have already breached 1.5C

PS We were heading into a cool phase so the actual forcing is substantially higher.

Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: April 10, 2020, 06:45:42 AM »
Is the data reliable ?

This from the Australian Government :-

"The reliability of COVID-19 tests is uncertain due to the limited evidence base."

"The extent to which a positive PCR result correlates with the infectious state of an individual is still being determined"

"Human coronaviruses circulate frequently every year and cause a common cold type illness. Cross reaction with antibodies formed by current and past exposure to seasonal human coronavirus infections can cause false-positive results. In addition, the false-negative rate associated with these lateral flow devices is not known."

"COVID-19 is an emerging viral infectious disease. There is limited evidence available to assess the accuracy and clinical utility of available COVID-19 tests."

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 09, 2020, 12:39:24 PM »

New evidence has emerged from China indicating that the large majority of coronavirus infections do not result in symptoms.

Chinese authorities began publishing daily figures on 1 April on the number of new coronavirus cases that are asymptomatic, with the first day’s figures suggesting that around four in five coronavirus infections caused no illness.

Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: April 09, 2020, 02:31:41 AM »
5G Towers EFFECT Bees, Birds, Trees & PEOPLE | FACT or FICTION ???

"Charles Malki, Biologist & Plant Expert for has an educated discussion with Judy Frankel of on the several studies on 5G (5th Generation) Cellphone Towers, and the approximately 10x more powerful (than the 4G Cell Tower) electromagnetic fields (EMF), and its effects on bees, birds, plants & people."

"Conversation between the famous English physicist Barrie Trower and Sir Julian Rose . Barrie Trower is a former British Navy officer who has collaborated with the ... ... British Navy officer who has collaborated with the British Secret Service ."

Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 09:02:49 AM »
Looking at the statistics, the lesson is if you are healthy you are unlikely to be affected.

Lesson for governments is to focus on wellness and preventative medicine emphasizing nutrition.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: March 29, 2020, 08:42:05 AM »
Did 2012 have a strong positive AO like 2020 had this year ?

Winter 2011-12 was the fourth-warmest on record and spring 2012 had ENSO-neutral conditions, which are anticipated this year. Widespread warmer-than-average temperatures were recorded in the Lower 48 that spring. March 2012 was the warmest March on record and numerous records were broken east of the Rockies.

So what does all this mean for this year?

Spring 2020 Outlook
Computer models indicate above-average temperatures are likely for most of the Lower 48 from March through May.

The positive AO and the strong polar vortex will likely persist into March, which will limit the chances for prolonged cold in the contiguous U.S.

This forecast information, combined with past very warm winters being followed by warmer-than-average springs, suggest that a warm spring is likely ahead.

The linked reference provides evidence that CMIP5 model projections 'have underestimated the cooling effect that aerosol particles have had on climate in recent decades"; which 'suggests that the models are not sensitive enough to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere'.  In other words, this reference finds that the CMIP5 models (as a group) underestimated both TCR & ECS:

Trude Storelvmo et al. (29 August 2018), "Lethargic response to aerosol emissions in current climate models", Geophysical Research Letters,

The global temperature trend observed over the last century is largely the result of two opposing effects – cooling from aerosol particles and greenhouse gas (GHG) warming. While the effect of increasing GHG concentrations on Earth's radiation budget is well‐constrained, that due to anthropogenic aerosols is not, partly due to a lack of observations. However, long‐term surface measurements of changes in downward solar radiation (SDSR), an often‐used proxy for aerosol radiative impact, are available worldwide over the last half‐century. We compare SDSR changes from ∼1,400 stations to those from the CMIP5 global climate simulations over the period 1961‐2005. The observed SDSR shows a strong early downward trend followed by a weaker trend‐reversal, broadly consistent with historical aerosol emissions. However, despite considerable changes to known aerosol emissions over time, the models show negligible SDSR trends, revealing a lethargic response to aerosol emissions, and casting doubt on the accuracy of their future climate projections.

Plain Language Summary

Observations of incoming solar radiation, as measured at approximately 1400 surface stations worldwide, show a strong downward trend from the 1960s to the 1980s, followed by a weaker trend reversal thereafter. These trends are thought to be due to changes in the amount of aerosol particles in the atmosphere, and we find support for that here in the temporal evolution of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. This is expected because aerosol particles reflect and/or absorb sunlight back to space, and have a net cooling effect on Earth's climate. However, we find that the current generation of climate models simulate negligible solar radiation trends over the last half‐century, suggesting that they have underestimated the cooling effect that aerosol particles have had on climate in recent decades. Despite this, climate models tend to reproduce surface air temperature over the time period in question reasonably well. This, in turn, suggests that the models are not sensitive enough to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, with important implications for their ability to simulate future climate.

Compensatary error - amazing.

Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: October 04, 2019, 02:01:30 AM »
And for a not very realistic scenario. It´s not like we ever got close to that in any pandemic.

With the Black Death you see interesting shifts in society (labor becomes more scarce so people earn more and lots of ´male jobs´ were done by women until there were enough men to push them out again) but there is no collapse.

All the extinction events were planet wide calamities so there is no island lifeboat.

There is just one planet lifeboat.

Was the Black Death caused by climate change induced famine ?

"Now, new research using a unique combination of ice-core data and written historical records indicates that the cool, wet weather blamed for the northern European famine actually affected a much wider area over a much longer period. The work, which researchers say is preliminary, paints a picture of a deep, prolonged food shortage in the years leading to the Black Death.

“The evidence indicates that the famine was a broader phenomenon, geographically and chronologically,” said Alexander More, a postdoctoral fellow in the Harvard History Department and a lecturer in the History of Science Department.

A widespread famine that weakened the population over decades could help explain the Black Death’s particularly high mortality. Over four or five years after arriving in Europe in 1347, the pandemic surged through the continent in waves that killed millions.

The ice-core data is part of a unique program linking traditional historical research with scientific data-collecting techniques. The program, called the Initiative for the Science of the Human Past at Harvard (SoHP), is headed by Michael McCormick, the Francis Goelet Professor of Medieval History. SoHP’s ice-core project is being conducted in collaboration with the University of Maine’s Climate Change Institute and researchers at Heidelberg University. The project’s approach puts it at the juncture of environmental science, archaeology, and history. It is supported by the Arcadia Fund of London."

Climate change, not Global Warming caused the Black Death (bubonic plague) that killed an estimated 75 million people, or 1/3 of the Western Christian Civilization in Europe.
A study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in January of 2008 details the research of Anthropologists Sharon N. DeWitte and James W. Wood.
They examined the human remains of a Black Death cemetery in London and compared them with remains from cemeteries in Denmark, where the Black Death did not affect the local population.
The results were this:

Black Death killed more people who were starved of essential nutrients and already suffering from disease then it did well fed and healthy persons.
Why were they starved of essential nutrients and already suffering from disease?
Because the Medieval Warming Period, which ended around the year 1300, enabled abundant crops over much of Europe for hundreds of years. This continual abundance of food then created a population boom. The milder winters and longer growing seasons resulted in smaller amounts of environmental stress on the European peoples. As a result, by the year 1300 most of Europe’s people’s were well fed and generally healthy.

Then came the Great Famine of 1315–1322, the direct result of the cooling of the European climate, usually called the Little Ice Age. It started with three years of torrential rains beginning in 1315.The bad weather of the spring of 1315 resulted in crop failures over most of Europe and lasted until the summer of 1317.The unstable weather lasted in Europe until the 19th century and was characterized by severe winters and no or very short growing seasons.

When did the Black Death ravage Europe? From the years 1347 to 1351.

It doesn’t take a college degree to figure the natural chain of events caused by the Climate Change of 1300 to 1322.

The so called “Global Warming” of the Medieval Warming Period sparked the greatest boom in prosperity and health of the last 1,000 years in Europe. The climate change resulting in the Little Ice Age caused massive death and misery.

When people of the first half of the 1300's became starved, their immunity to common infections dropped, that combined with improper sanitation,lack of clean water and environmental stress set the stage for the Black Death.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Sea Ice Melting Affected by Microplastics?
« on: September 19, 2019, 05:28:08 AM »
The basic building blocks of plastic are cellulose. Currently, cellulose is primarily obtained from petroleum. However, petroleum-based plastics are harmful to human health. Not to mention destructive to the environment.

Hemp, on the other hand, happens to be an excellent source of cellulose and is sustainable.

7 Ways Hemp Plastic Could Change the World

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: September 12, 2019, 06:25:11 AM »
Amazing, thanks Nanning  :)

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: August 27, 2019, 01:16:04 AM »
Why does TRump need to control the lands close to the east of the USA?

He is an unfathomably stupid child with dementia. What do you expect?

Maybe Trump wants to buy the Amazon, I'm sure he's the type to be interested in fire sales !

And he's envious on Canadians having large access to the Arctic and he's afraid of Putin on the other side. A future geopolitical loser while the losing part will be self-inflicted and not dependent on the answer to the "Arctic Question"

I'm just brainstorming with a smirk.

Don't forget Trump is Denier in Chief and IMO is distracting from world headlines of dramatic Greenland melt by his incessant oxygen thieving Tweets.

If you raise the issue of Greenland melting these days, the hilarity of Don's Tweets will come up, as it does if you Google Greenland news.

Fake news par excellence.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: August 26, 2019, 01:34:27 AM »
Why does TRump need to control the lands close to the east of the USA?

He is an unfathomably stupid child with dementia. What do you expect?

Maybe Trump wants to buy the Amazon, I'm sure he's the type to be interested in fire sales !

Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: August 25, 2019, 09:07:52 AM »
California Releases Misleading Greenhouse Emissions Report

A very good take on California's misleading climate change report from the real news netowrk. This very much represents the "soft denial" of the countries that make so many positive statements at the UN meetings then soft-pedals when they get home.

Comment from the video :-

Dennis Renner

1 day ago

Our whole society is caught in this type of hypocrisy.  Each, and every one of us thinks the quality of our lives is better because of products made, or produced by the polluting industries that are destroying our environment.    The fact we are all using some type of electronic device to watch this news program is proof.  All these electronic devices would not exist with out the use of fossil fuels.  From the mining of basic resources to factories,  The foods the workers eat, the transportation of materials all depends on the fuels that are running us off this cliff.  Even the production of clean renewables are not really clean.  The resins to produce wind generators are an oil product.  Solar panels use about 4 tons of coal to produce each panel.   Every aspect of our lives adds to the problem.  Civilization is a heat engine.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« on: August 23, 2019, 12:50:58 AM »
Yes, the suspence is killing me.

Policy and solutions / Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« on: August 20, 2019, 09:17:58 AM »
Also expressed by negative interest rates and inverted yields where long term bonds pay less interest than short term bonds.

Policy and solutions / Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« on: August 19, 2019, 12:57:04 AM »
Global debt hits a new record at $247 trillion. Global debt has hit another high, climbing to $247 trillion in the first quarter of 2018

Who/what is it owed to ?

The future ; Our biosphere ?

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: August 11, 2019, 09:05:01 AM »
Can the amount of soot from the fires landing on the surviving ice be quantified ?

What effect will it have on the freezing season ?

Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: August 08, 2019, 05:51:02 AM »
nanning, I very much appreciate your posts.

We can be alone together  :)

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: August 08, 2019, 01:57:54 AM »
Greta is part of a limited hangout operation to hide the true extent of the horror about to befall on us.

Ultimate climate destruction is baked in - that is the science - we can quibble about the timing, but when Greta talks about her grandchildren, you know she has no idea about the severity of the situation.

I thought the numbers in those AR5 graph showing anthro carbon emissions on the x axis were taken directly from the prescribed RCPs while the temperature rise and risk factors were from AR5 results ?

A much bigger issue is, as AbruptSLR has pointed out in this very thread, that feedbacks will probably increase atmospheric carbon load both in  CO2 and CH4 more than AR5 thought.

AR6 is going to use something called  "Shared Socioeconomic Pathways" (SSPs)

which seem prescribe land use changes and fluxes and a whole bunch of other things to drive CMIP6 models. But the SSPs were developed even before the deadline for AR6 papers. So i think they are already out of date.

The things are out of date when published. My larger point is, that is not the fault of the IPCC but rather the procedure. They need to publish updates yearly, but they haven't the budget for it. Sad, innit ?


not sad but planned

The rest / Re: Is Man the "Unnatural Animal?"
« on: May 16, 2019, 06:47:30 AM »
I think you are missing an important point in evaluating homo sapiens - it all depends on political structures.

The advent of agriculture meant grains could be stored and this is the basis of a monetary system.

A hierachical governance system was a consequence as wealth accumulation became a thing.

We left the Garden of Eden (hunter and gatherer), which eventually led to Jesus losing his cool with money dealers at the Temple.

Australian Aborigines lived in harmony with nature for over 2,000 generations before the rapacious
colonisers arrived.

The rest / Re: Algorithms of Hate
« on: February 27, 2019, 12:33:48 AM »
The extinction will not be televised.

The politics / Re: The Empire vs Venezuela - News and History
« on: February 19, 2019, 10:53:21 AM »
Anti Maduro protestors are all wearing designer clothes.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: November 26, 2018, 04:57:48 AM »

When people "wake up" and stop buying 30 year bonds the economy collapses, industrial activity falls rapidly, aerosols wash out of the sky and we fry.

Except we know that aerosols will increase warming by only around .25-.4C...

So a decade or two of warming in about 6 weeks is nothing to worry about ?

Nature is not wrong or right, it just is.

Humans are part of nature.

Humans want to survive, thrive and multiply.

Humans discovered fossil fuels.

Human knowledge has known of the consequences of fossil fuel usage for a long time.

No politician can be elected by promising to cut off what makes us powerful.

Even if one part of the world did this, another part would take advantage.

In any case, the die is cast (which IMO is the reason for rise in Trump style super-denialism).

In the meantime, I love the science and the marvellous contribution of fellow posters  :)

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