Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Policy and solutions => Topic started by: Laurent on April 12, 2015, 05:34:05 PM

Title: But, but, but India...
Post by: Laurent on April 12, 2015, 05:34:05 PM
We should not forget about India in the futur, let's track what they do or not...

Modi's Oxymoronic Stance on Climate Change
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chaitanya-kumar/modis-oxymoronic-stance-o_b_7045276.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green. (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chaitanya-kumar/modis-oxymoronic-stance-o_b_7045276.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green.)

Quote
Yes, the world doesn't need to tell India what to do because of our unique cultural value to the environment and our minimal contribution to historic carbon emissions, but neither can India's Prime minister continue to dwell in rhetoric and falsely lead the public into thinking he is doing enough to protect them.
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Neven on April 12, 2015, 05:54:49 PM
Great topic title!  :D
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: RaenorShine on April 12, 2015, 06:03:09 PM
Great topic, saw this a couple of days ago, nothing like shooting the messenger!

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/10/greenpeace-bank-accounts-frozen-by-indian-government (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/10/greenpeace-bank-accounts-frozen-by-indian-government)

Quote
The Indian government has frozen bank accounts of Greenpeace after accusing the international environment campaign group of encouraging “anti-development” protests in the emerging economic power.
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: JimD on April 12, 2015, 06:21:45 PM
My son at one point was a senior staffer for Greenpeace.  I clearly remember a conversation with one of our relatives back in Wyoming and their reaction to hearing about where he worked was...

"Isn't that a terrorist organization?"

True story.
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Laurent on April 24, 2015, 12:29:54 PM
 How India Welcomed Xiaomi’s Mi 4i
http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2015/04/24/how-india-welcomed-xiaomis-mi-4i/ (http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2015/04/24/how-india-welcomed-xiaomis-mi-4i/)

Interesting to see how Indians (some) are craving to get a chinese product...
I have never heard of this company, I guess It will come in France very fast...
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Laurent on April 28, 2015, 11:30:03 AM
Prime Minister Modi says India must lead on climate change
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/prime-minister-modi-says-india-must-lead-on-climate-change/2015/04/14/8585d5a8-e299-11e4-ae0f-f8c46aa8c3a4_story.html (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/prime-minister-modi-says-india-must-lead-on-climate-change/2015/04/14/8585d5a8-e299-11e4-ae0f-f8c46aa8c3a4_story.html)

A nice map of where carbon is emitted.

Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 05, 2015, 06:48:35 PM
The linked Bloomberg article indicates that Modi will spur India fossil fuel power plants to spend $25 Billion to clean-up their aerosol emissions while continuing to allow CO2 emissions.  This will clearly serve to increase the near-term rate of global warming by reducing the negative forcing associated with the aerosols.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-04/world-s-worst-air-spurs-modi-s-25-billion-utility-clean-up-push (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-04/world-s-worst-air-spurs-modi-s-25-billion-utility-clean-up-push)

Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Laurent on May 05, 2015, 07:56:54 PM
Greenpeace India could close within a month due to government crackdown
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/may/05/greenpeace-india-could-close-within-a-month-due-to-government-crackdown (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/may/05/greenpeace-india-could-close-within-a-month-due-to-government-crackdown)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 27, 2015, 12:42:32 AM
Extreme Heat Wave In India Is Killing People And Melting Roads
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/05/26/3662797/india-heat-wave-deaths/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/05/26/3662797/india-heat-wave-deaths/)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 17, 2015, 10:19:51 PM
India Just Upped Its Solar Target Five-Fold, Will Install More Solar This Year Than Germany
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/06/17/3670558/india-makes-huge-solar-commitment-100-gigawatts/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/06/17/3670558/india-makes-huge-solar-commitment-100-gigawatts/)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 10, 2015, 08:35:17 PM
Farmers using their solar panels to sell electricity rather than pump more water.

Indian farmer harvests a climate-smart crop – sunshine
Quote
" 'Solar crops' are a very exciting example of a triple-win," Tushaar Shah, IWMI senior fellow, said in a statement. "Farmers, the state, and precious water reserves all benefit from a single intervention."
http://m.csmonitor.com/World/Making-a-difference/Change-Agent/2015/0708/Indian-farmer-harvests-a-climate-smart-crop-sunshine (http://m.csmonitor.com/World/Making-a-difference/Change-Agent/2015/0708/Indian-farmer-harvests-a-climate-smart-crop-sunshine)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: anotheramethyst on July 15, 2015, 08:23:08 AM
energy and agriculture can go really well together.  the vast farms and ranches of south texas used to pump a lot of oil (some still do, unfortunately).  those areas now house a large wind farm, spread across multie properties.  farmers and ranchers always have a landbase by definition, and they also have a need to diversify to protect against drought, crop failures, and wild fluctuations in market prices.  frankly i was shocked to see the windmills in such a traditionally conservative area, but it makes a lot of sense.  usually a mineral/ energy company builds and manages all the infrastructure and pays the landowners to use the land, usually only a few tiny parcels of a field.
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 15, 2015, 04:12:28 PM
The linked article about India's environmental minister calling for the developed nations to curb their per-capita GHG emissions to make room for India's economic development; shows that the primary issue that crippled the Kyoto Protocol (the developed – underdeveloped divide) is still in effect.

http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060021726 (http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060021726)

Extract: "Americans and others in rich nations must alter their lifestyles if the world is to combat climate change, India's environment minister Prakash Javadekar said.
In an exclusive interview with ClimateWire, Javadekar yesterday called on wealthy countries to curb their per-capita greenhouse gas emissions and create room so that poorer nations like India can develop economically."
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2015, 02:45:14 AM
India: help us to deal with climate change.

Quote
India's environment minister said on Monday that the rich world could not wish away its responsibility for man-made global warming, as he urged developed nations to do more to help his country deal with the impact of climate change.
http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKKCN0QT0ZG20150824 (http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKKCN0QT0ZG20150824)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2015, 03:14:07 AM
But, but....

India’s Unconventional Plan To Increase Solar Power
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/09/08/3699229/india-coal-plus-solar/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/09/08/3699229/india-coal-plus-solar/)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 28, 2015, 11:36:33 PM
Indian Prime Minister Modi meets with Tesla CEO Elon Musk, discusses off grid power/wall [video]
Quote
...Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the company’s Fremont car plant does have some immediate ramifications. According to the Indian Foreign ministry, Musk gave the PM a tour of the plant and paid particular attention to the Tesla Powerwall which the CEO noted could, when used in conjunction with Solar, help India’s rural communities bypass the electric grid.
http://electrek.co/2015/09/28/indian-prime-minister-modi-meets-with-tesla-ceo-elon-musk-discusses-off-grid-powerwall-video/ (http://electrek.co/2015/09/28/indian-prime-minister-modi-meets-with-tesla-ceo-elon-musk-discusses-off-grid-powerwall-video/)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 29, 2015, 12:01:49 AM
Per the attached article, India is the only major country that has not yet made a pledge to CoP21 in Paris:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/despite-pledges-climate-action-seen-falling-short/2015/09/28/9b8fc030-6614-11e5-bdb6-6861f4521205_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/despite-pledges-climate-action-seen-falling-short/2015/09/28/9b8fc030-6614-11e5-bdb6-6861f4521205_story.html)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 08, 2015, 06:59:40 PM
The linked article (focused on India) discusses how the need to provide over 1.3 billion people worldwide with electricity means that fossil fuel consumption will continue to increase (to at least 2030) despite efforts to increase the use of renewables:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/indias-huge-need-for-electricity-is-a-problem-for-the-planet/2015/11/06/a9e004e6-622d-11e5-8475-781cc9851652_story.html?postshare=7811446984768218 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/indias-huge-need-for-electricity-is-a-problem-for-the-planet/2015/11/06/a9e004e6-622d-11e5-8475-781cc9851652_story.html?postshare=7811446984768218)

Extract: "… the world’s hunger for cheap electricity is complicating efforts to combat climate change.

Of the world’s 1.3 billion people who live without access to power, a quarter — about 300 million — live in rural India in states…

… India’s leaders say that the huge challenge of extending electric service to its citizens means a hard reality — that the country must continue to increase its fossil fuel consumption, at least in the near term, on a path that could mean a threefold increase in greenhouse-gas emissions by 2030, according to some estimates."
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 11, 2015, 06:37:24 PM
I am personally concerned that just as the Kyoto Protocol did not effectively address the reality of China; that CoP21 will not effectively address the reality of India today.  In particular I do not believe that the developed world will adequately help India (nor Africa for that matter) bridge the divide separating it from a low carbon future with an acceptable lifestyle for its people (particularly in Northeastern India [adjacent to Bangladesh], see first attached image); which I believe could result in substantial sectarian (between Hindus and Muslims) armed violence during the next major collapse of the monsoon season (which tend to happen in weak to moderate El Nino years, not in Super El Nino years, as indicated by the second attached image. Further I note that 2016 could possibly experience a weak El Nino according to current NOAA forecasts):

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/11/business/economy/india-is-caught-in-a-climate-change-quandary.html?_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/11/business/economy/india-is-caught-in-a-climate-change-quandary.html?_r=0)

Extract: "India is home to 30 percent of the world’s poorest, those living on less than $1.90 a day. Of the 1.3 billion Indians, 304 million do not have access to electricity; 92 million have no access to safe drinking water.
And India is going to be hammered by climate change.
The livelihoods of 600 million Indians are threatened by the expected disruption of the southwest monsoon from July to September, which accounts for 70 percent of India’s rainfall. India’s rivers depend on the health of thousands of Himalayan glaciers at risk of melting because of a warming climate, while 150 million people are at risk from storm surges associated with rising sea levels.

The United Nations expects India’s population to reach 1.5 billion by 2030, bigger than China’s. If over the next 15 years it follows anything like the fossil-fuel-heavy path out of poverty that China took over the last 15, it could blow any chance the world has of preventing a disaster.

Jairam Ramesh, who was minister of the environment under the previous prime minister, Manmohan Singh, argues that India must continue to grow at 7.5 to 8 percent a year for the next 15 years.
To power this growth, India’s electricity consumption — which accounts for over half its greenhouse gas emissions — would rise 6 to 7 percent a year. Even under the most ambitious goals for nuclear power and renewable energy, more than half of this power is expected to come from coal, the dirtiest fuel. “By 2030 India’s coal consumption could triple or quadruple,” Mr. Ramesh told me.
India has come up with a mitigation contribution plan for the Paris meeting. It aims to get 40 percent of its electricity from nonfossil fuels by 2030 and to reduce its emissions intensity by 33 to 35 percent from 2005 to 2030. It also offers to vastly increase its forest cover.
The plan, however, pointedly notes that India’s energy consumption amounts to only 0.6 metric tons of oil equivalent per person, about a third of the world average. It explains that “no country in the world” has ever achieved the development level of today’s advanced nations without consuming at least four tons."


See also:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_India (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_India)

Caption for the first attached image: "Poverty rate map of India by prevalence in 2012, among its states and union territories"


https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/enso-and-indian-monsoon%E2%80%A6-not-straightforward-you%E2%80%99d-think (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/enso-and-indian-monsoon%E2%80%A6-not-straightforward-you%E2%80%99d-think)

Caption for the second attached image: "Comparison of the Oceanic Niño Index to Indian monsoon rainfall from 1950-2012. La Niña years are blue, neutral years are gray, and El Niño years are red. El Niño years tend to be drier than average, but the strongest El Niño of the century (1997-98) produced a monsoon season with above-average rainfall. Graph adapted from Kumar et al. 2006."
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 12, 2015, 05:33:35 PM
Per the linked Christian Science Monitor article, I am not the only one concerned about India's future impacts on GHG emissions and on climate change refuges:

http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy/2015/1111/Can-India-make-or-break-climate-change (http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy/2015/1111/Can-India-make-or-break-climate-change)

Extract: "On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency released its annual World Energy Outlook, which warned that "Meeting India’s energy needs requires a huge commitment of capital and constant vigilance as to the implications for energy security and the environment."
For the time being, India's emissions per person are just 1.7 metric tons a year, while China's measure 6.7 and the United States, a whopping 17. "
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 16, 2015, 04:54:04 PM
Further to my Reply #18, per the linked article Richard Tol agrees that a climate change induced Hindu-Muslim conflict in the Indian Sub-continent is plausible in the future:

http://www.carbonbrief.org/in-conversation-roger-harrabin-and-richard-tol (http://www.carbonbrief.org/in-conversation-roger-harrabin-and-richard-tol)

Extract: "Under current conditions that would mean evacuating 30, 40, 50 million Bangladeshis, in the future perhaps a bit more because of population growth. Where would they go? If you look at the current political situation in Bangladesh there’s actually a low-level civil war going on. You would essentially force the Bengali out from the flats into the hills where there’s people who do not really like the Bengalis so that conflict would probably intensify. A whole lot of them would actually move into Myanmar, move into India where they’re also not very keen on Bangladeshis. That may lead to civil conflict there, at which point the Pakistanis – and it would probably be escalating to ‘Hindu versus Muslim’ type of conflict – at which point the Pakistanis may decide to come to the rescue of their Muslim brethren. And because of sea level rise, you’re talking about nuclear war on the Indian subcontinent. That’s a scenario that you cannot say is impossible. You cannot say that this sequence of events will not happen. You can actually make it sound plausible, even."
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: sidd on November 16, 2015, 10:29:15 PM
Unfortunately, I read the interview with Tol. I had evidence that he was an unsound economist after his  misanalysis and subsequent attempted defense of positive net economic effects from carbon fertilization. Now I find that he is woefully ignorant of the geology, hydrology, history and politics of both Bangladesh and the subcontinent. Takes a kind of  polymath to be simultaneously wrong in multiple disciplines and on multiple levels.

The reality is that the New Yorker will adapt with ten billion dollar seawalls, and the Bangladeshi will adapt by drowning. If he does not know that he is a fool, if he does, an apologist for class based genocide. He then proceeds to prove that he is the latter:   
 
"Tol: We just established that climate change is primarily a problem of the poor, right? I am not poor and I’ll make sure that my children aren’t poor either."

I sorta wish I hadn't read that. The man has a dead soul, not something i want to feel about anybody.

sidd
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 16, 2015, 10:49:55 PM
Unfortunately, I read the interview with Tol. I had evidence that he was an unsound economist after his  misanalysis and subsequent attempted defense of positive net economic effects from carbon fertilization. Now I find that he is woefully ignorant of the geology, hydrology, history and politics of both Bangladesh and the subcontinent. Takes a kind of  polymath to be simultaneously wrong in multiple disciplines and on multiple levels.

The reality is that the New Yorker will adapt with ten billion dollar seawalls, and the Bangladeshi will adapt by drowning. If he does not know that he is a fool, if he does, an apologist for class based genocide. He then proceeds to prove that he is the latter:   
 
"Tol: We just established that climate change is primarily a problem of the poor, right? I am not poor and I’ll make sure that my children aren’t poor either."

I sorta wish I hadn't read that. The man has a dead soul, not something i want to feel about anybody.

sidd

I concur that Tol is a broken clock; nevertheless, even a broken clock is right twice a day; and I do believe that Bangladesh will produce millions of climate refuges sooner, or later.
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: sidd on November 17, 2015, 06:49:16 AM
I entirely agree that Bangladesh will be one of the larger sources of climate refugees (you dropped the last "e" in "refugees," I would that it were so ...)

But quoting Tol in support of anything removes credibility, rather than lends it. Especially the specious argument that Pakistan would come to the support of Bangladesh in a putative war with India triggering nuclear doom. The briefest history of the 1971 conflict might have educated him before he chose to speak, but educating Tol is a thankless task given his reaction to previous attempts.

Another incredibly bad comparison in the interview was the one between the Netherlands and Bangladesh.  A reclamation and flood protection project over centuries, in an economically fortunate colonial state held as an example for one to be built by an impoverished colonial residue of six times the threatened area, ten times threatened population and twelvefold river flow influx to be constructed on decadal scale on alluvium several thousand feet deep is not even wrong.

Discussing Tol's deficiencies would be a full time occupation, I already regret the time i spent reading the interview and responding. But I owed you an explanation for my intemperance, which I have attempted, but I would rather not discuss Tol or his work any further.

The drowning of Bangladesh has already begun, you may read of unfortunate displacees already held as slaves on fishing fleets in SE Asia, or relegated to camps. But, and let me make a prediction, there will be no war. There will be death on a scale rivaling the Great Bengal Famines, and migrations dwarfing Partition, but no war, at least in that benighted land, or what will be left of it.  Of course, as always, I might be wrong.

Explaining my reasoning here would take us very far afield indeed for a climate forum, we can perhaps discuss in email.

sidd
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 19, 2015, 07:21:13 PM
I entirely agree that Bangladesh will be one of the larger sources of climate refugees (you dropped the last "e" in "refugees," I would that it were so ...)

But quoting Tol in support of anything removes credibility, rather than lends it. Especially the specious argument that Pakistan would come to the support of Bangladesh in a putative war with India triggering nuclear doom. The briefest history of the 1971 conflict might have educated him before he chose to speak, but educating Tol is a thankless task given his reaction to previous attempts.

Another incredibly bad comparison in the interview was the one between the Netherlands and Bangladesh.  A reclamation and flood protection project over centuries, in an economically fortunate colonial state held as an example for one to be built by an impoverished colonial residue of six times the threatened area, ten times threatened population and twelvefold river flow influx to be constructed on decadal scale on alluvium several thousand feet deep is not even wrong.

Discussing Tol's deficiencies would be a full time occupation, I already regret the time i spent reading the interview and responding. But I owed you an explanation for my intemperance, which I have attempted, but I would rather not discuss Tol or his work any further.

The drowning of Bangladesh has already begun, you may read of unfortunate displacees already held as slaves on fishing fleets in SE Asia, or relegated to camps. But, and let me make a prediction, there will be no war. There will be death on a scale rivaling the Great Bengal Famines, and migrations dwarfing Partition, but no war, at least in that benighted land, or what will be left of it.  Of course, as always, I might be wrong.

Explaining my reasoning here would take us very far afield indeed for a climate forum, we can perhaps discuss in email.

sidd

sidd,

All very good points (I admit it was a poor idea on my part to quote Tol); however, I am still concerned that some form of serious armed (not necessarily nuclear) conflict could occur in India as a result of climate refugee's, whether they are from Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Myanmar, Bhutan, or Pakistan.  Although, I admit that my concerns may prove unfounded in the next two to five years (again I am concerned about a collapse of the local monsoon in that timeframe, and my concern that modern people will not die [as they did in Great Bengal Famine] without a fight).

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 21, 2015, 02:51:28 PM
Solar Prices Could Be 10% Less Than Coal In India By 2020
http://cleantechnica.com/2015/11/17/solar-prices-10-less-coal-india-2020/ (http://cleantechnica.com/2015/11/17/solar-prices-10-less-coal-india-2020/)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 26, 2015, 05:05:28 PM
Those who do not think that the Northwestern part of the Indian subcontinent is not a growing powder keg for climate refugees should read the linked articles; which shows that these climate refugees are already accumulating in Bangladesh:

http://www.ipsnews.net/2015/11/climate-refugees-and-a-collapsing-city/ (http://www.ipsnews.net/2015/11/climate-refugees-and-a-collapsing-city/)

Extract: "With multiplying impacts of climate change – increasing floods, cyclones, and drought – thousands of climate refugees are migrating to Dhaka. And the city, well beyond its carrying capacity, is bursting at the seams.


The word most often associated with Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, is perhaps, “overpopulated.” Supporting more than 14 million people on less than 325 square kilometers (125 square miles) of land, the city’s drainage, waste management and transportation infrastructure is on the brink of collapse.

Against that backdrop, it is hardly surprising to find the Bangladesh capital among the worst cities to live in on the Economist Intelligence Unit’s 2015 ranking."
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 02, 2015, 05:05:31 PM
The attached plot from The Guardian indicates that there is relatively little difference between the current and the post-INDC projections for India's CO2 emissions through 2030:
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 07, 2015, 10:17:35 AM
Per the linked Reuters article, India is currently investing in more coal, so that by 2040 their CO₂ emissions are projected to double:

http://in.reuters.com/article/climatechange-summit-india-idINKBN0TP01520151206 (http://in.reuters.com/article/climatechange-summit-india-idINKBN0TP01520151206)

Extract: "… India is opening a coal mine a month and is set to double output by 2020, putting it at the forefront of a pan-Asian dash to burn more of the most polluting fossil fuel, which also happens to its most affordable and abundant.
This means that, although it is promoting solar power and other renewables, India's overall emissions will soar.
Ajay Mathur, Director General of the Bureau of Energy Efficiency and a senior member of the Indian delegation in Paris, said India's greenhouse gas emissions may grow until 2050, unless new technologies are developed.
"Projections ... that go out until 2050 are still showing an increase," he said.
While China has pledged that its emissions will peak no later than 2030, India's national plan promises only to slow the rise relative to its economic growth by then.
India's carbon dioxide emissions grew by almost 8 percent last year, according to the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, making it the biggest contributor to global emissions growth of 0.5 percent.
By 2040, they could roughly double, according to projections by U.S. scientists at Climate Interactive, overtaking the United States."
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 29, 2015, 06:31:25 PM
The linked article explains Indian Maoist guerrilla's long-term goals of a people's war in India, and that both women and children are swelling the Maoist ranks.  With continuing climate stress in this part of the world it seems likely that climate refugees will also swell the Maoist ranks:

http://www.idsa.in/book/UnderstandingIndiasMaoists (http://www.idsa.in/book/UnderstandingIndiasMaoists)
http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/ChildreninIndianMaoistRanks_pvramana_060814 (http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/ChildreninIndianMaoistRanks_pvramana_060814)
http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/women-in-maoist-ranks_pvramana_151215 (http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/women-in-maoist-ranks_pvramana_151215)

Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 04, 2016, 04:40:31 AM
Electrifying India, With the Sun and Small Loans
Quote
Selco systems typically include a small panel connected to a battery that stores enough power to run one or more lights, phone chargers and, with higher wattage options, some small appliances. Since its inception in 1995, Selco India has sold 318,400 solar home systems, and has provided power systems to almost 10,000 schools, hospitals and other institutions, almost all in Karnataka.
...
The sales presentation, once it includes assurance of financing from a bank, is much more palatable to potential customers: Pay the bank monthly installments of roughly the same price you’d spend on kerosene, and in a few short years, you’ll own the system and your basic energy needs will be fulfilled by the sun free.

“When we say free, their ears prick up,” Mr. Prasad said.
...
For many of Selco’s customers, financing the solar home system is their first interaction with a bank. The experience is often new for the bankers, too.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/03/business/energy-environment/electrifying-india-with-the-sun-and-small-loans.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/03/business/energy-environment/electrifying-india-with-the-sun-and-small-loans.html)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 09, 2016, 02:59:56 PM
India/Modi is planning to tap private investors to double its coal production by 2020 when the Paris Pact kicks-in:

http://in.reuters.com/article/india-coal-idINKBN0UM1K520160108 (http://in.reuters.com/article/india-coal-idINKBN0UM1K520160108)

Extract: "India is getting ready to open up commercial coal mining to private companies for the first time in four decades, with the aim of shifting the world's third-biggest coal importer towards energy self-sufficiency.

Anil Swarup, the country's top coal bureaucrat, told Reuters on Friday the government has identified mines it plans to auction, and is now finalising other terms such as eligibility criteria for companies to take part and whether and how to set up revenue sharing.

He said a plan should be ready in the 2-3 months, setting a clear timeline on a plan that has previously only been vaguely marked out.

India has an ambitious plan to double its coal production to 1.5 billion tonnes a year by 2020, as part of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's push to bring power to 300 million people who live without electricity, and give a boost to manufacturing."
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: sidd on January 09, 2016, 09:48:10 PM
Private investors in indian coal projects ? One look at the financial positions of Tata Power, Adnani and GVK would have disabused Modi and Swarup. Perhaps they did look, and perhaps this is an illustration of the blindness of power. Zizek has pointed out one of Rumsfeld's more egregious fallacies, in that he failed to include the fourth region of a quadrature, and possibly the more dangerious, that of the "unknown knowns." These are truths that one knows, but _fails to see_

I particularly like this plaintive screed from GVK:

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-07-21/news/64683014_1_alpha-west-coal-projects-gvk-coal-developers-hancock-coal-pty (http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-07-21/news/64683014_1_alpha-west-coal-projects-gvk-coal-developers-hancock-coal-pty)

"GVK Coal is currently under development phase and is making losses and its current liabilities exceed current assets by $885 million (Rs 5,539 crore) based on unaudited financial statements for the year ended June 30, 2014, ..."

"Management believes that GVK Coal would be able to establish profitable operations, meet its obligations, and its current liabilities being in excess of current assets is temporary situation and will not impact ability of the company to continue in operation in foreseeable future and accordingly will not have any material adverse impact upon operations and cash flows of the company, the company hoped."

"GVK coal is also in discussion with non-controlling shareholders realign the option exercise dates and additional funding from potential investors," the report said."

Good luck with that.

And here is a message from Tata Power, after the huge Mundra plant debacle:

http://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/it-s-an-unfair-almost-subprime-like-situation-anil-sardan-112061500084_1.html (http://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/it-s-an-unfair-almost-subprime-like-situation-anil-sardan-112061500084_1.html)

"The right message is to control losses."

That guy is learning. Pity it took a few billion for his education so far.

But Modi and Swarup are not self-delusional, or at any rate, not as much as Rumsfeld. I suspect they know none of these plans will ever come to fruition, and more important, they are not intended to. They know that none of the coal companies are in a position to take on more projects. Rather, they are "improving" their position hoping for climate blackmail: pay us or we burn a lot of coal. This is a deeply cynical and morally bankrupt ploy, whose only saving grace is that the threat is not credible ...

sidd
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 10, 2016, 02:08:01 PM
...
But Modi and Swarup are not self-delusional, or at any rate, not as much as Rumsfeld. I suspect they know none of these plans will ever come to fruition, and more important, they are not intended to. They know that none of the coal companies are in a position to take on more projects. Rather, they are "improving" their position hoping for climate blackmail: pay us or we burn a lot of coal. This is a deeply cynical and morally bankrupt ploy, whose only saving grace is that the threat is not credible ...

sidd

That's an interesting take on the situation.  And I see others have doubt about India's grand coal goals, as well:

Quote
It's imperative that India opens up the sector so that private companies can bring in new technologies and the efficiencies that we keep talking about," said Dipesh Dipu at energy-focused Jenissi Management Consultants. "But I don't think private companies will be able to produce more than 100 million tonnes this decade as the process has yet to start."

The move is likely to attract coal block bids from Indian conglomerates such as the Adani Group and GVK, but the government may find it harder to lure big multinational miners such as Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Anglo American and Peabody Energy. Rio Tinto did not respond to requests for comment.

Coal prices are at multi-year lows amid global oversupply, and foreign companies have faced obstacles to investing in India, such as problems in getting land and environmental approvals.
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/developed-countries-turn-coal-india-fires-production-n493156 (http://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/developed-countries-turn-coal-india-fires-production-n493156)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: sesyf on January 10, 2016, 09:34:59 PM
Inveeetment environment in India could look a bit difficult from foreign viewpoint; a few years ago India tax officials required Nokia (the ex phone maker, you know...) to pay additional taxes although there was an agreement between Finland and India that India should not demand anything in this context. Don't know the details, but I think that the relevant factories in India remained with Nokia and were not transferred to Microsoft when the whole phone business was sold to MS.

So perhaps there is some wariness in some corners of big businesses - they might suspect that the business environment in India is  not stable enough...

Seppo
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 11, 2016, 05:18:50 PM
...
But Modi and Swarup are not self-delusional, or at any rate, not as much as Rumsfeld. I suspect they know none of these plans will ever come to fruition, and more important, they are not intended to. They know that none of the coal companies are in a position to take on more projects. Rather, they are "improving" their position hoping for climate blackmail: pay us or we burn a lot of coal. This is a deeply cynical and morally bankrupt ploy, whose only saving grace is that the threat is not credible ...

sidd

That's an interesting take on the situation.  And I see others have doubt about India's grand coal goals, as well:

Quote
It's imperative that India opens up the sector so that private companies can bring in new technologies and the efficiencies that we keep talking about," said Dipesh Dipu at energy-focused Jenissi Management Consultants. "But I don't think private companies will be able to produce more than 100 million tonnes this decade as the process has yet to start."

The move is likely to attract coal block bids from Indian conglomerates such as the Adani Group and GVK, but the government may find it harder to lure big multinational miners such as Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Anglo American and Peabody Energy. Rio Tinto did not respond to requests for comment.

Coal prices are at multi-year lows amid global oversupply, and foreign companies have faced obstacles to investing in India, such as problems in getting land and environmental approvals.
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/developed-countries-turn-coal-india-fires-production-n493156 (http://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/developed-countries-turn-coal-india-fires-production-n493156)


Per the linked article an the Aussie Nathan Tinkler thinks that the coal export industry in Australia is far from doomed, and he is gearing up to increase exports to South (India) and Southeast Asia:

http://www.afr.com/leadership/nathan-tinkler-the-coal-industry-is-far-from-doomed-20160110-gm30lm (http://www.afr.com/leadership/nathan-tinkler-the-coal-industry-is-far-from-doomed-20160110-gm30lm)


Extract: ""I think the coal industry is far from doomed."

Regain crown

Tinkler is betting on forecasts that Asian markets, including India, will still need coal well into the future, despite the global move toward natural gas, wind and solar power.

Australia is forecast to overtake Indonesia and regain its position as the world's largest coal exporter, according to the International Energy Agency.


Its shipments of power station coal are expected to grow 4.5 per cent a year through 2020 as cost cuts help the sector, the IEA said.

India, Malaysia and Vietnam will probably drive demand for Australian coal as China's consumption slows, said Matthew Boyle, a Sydney-based industry consultant at CRU Group who estimates the South Pacific nation's thermal coal exports will grow about 1.5 per cent a year through 2020."



Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 12, 2016, 02:40:36 PM
India's existing power grid has daily outages, so intermittent renewables may not be as big a deal there as you may think....   ;)

Here comes the sun: Indian consumers go solar as costs plunge
Quote
Although it still faces issues, solar power is competitive with newly-built thermal, hydro and nuclear power plants.

The price of solar energy has fallen by half over two years, with prices dropping from Rs 10-12 per unit to Rs 4.63 per unit in 2015, the price at which Sun Edison, a US company, offered to supply electricity in Andhra Pradesh recently, closely followed by another project.

At these levels, solar power is competitive with newly-built thermal, hydro and nuclear power plants, although it still faces issues of being available mainly when the sun shines. Nevertheless, these rates are encouraging a growing number of consumers to bypass India’s creaky electricity grid and directly go solar.

These prices will also boost Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ambitious solar-energy plans. Of a target of 175 giga watt or 175,000 MW of renewable energy capacity by 2022, solar power will account for 100 GW, as Factchecker.in reported. India currently has 5,000 MW of solar power installations; so the government’s target is a 20-fold jump over the next seven years.
http://scroll.in/article/801507/costs-plunge-consumers-go-solar-bypass-grid (http://scroll.in/article/801507/costs-plunge-consumers-go-solar-bypass-grid)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 12, 2016, 03:09:37 PM
Rapidly growing economies are always better able to take advantage of new technologies as they do not have the huge investments in older technologies. This is why China has a far superior communications system than the U.S. They built the industry from scratch. Developed countries should help third world nations rapidly expand wind and solar. The irony is this will leave these countries in a far better position as the U.S. and others deal with their massive investment in coal generated electricity.
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 14, 2016, 08:11:30 PM
The linked Reuters article indicates that while India's economy has its share of problems, its economy is expected to grow at more than 7% next year, thus picking-up the slack from the slowing Chinese economy.  This indicates that the global economy will most likely continue to impose relatively high rates of radiative forcing on the Earth for some years to come:


http://in.reuters.com/article/india-economy-growth-poll-rbi-rate-idINKCN0US0MU20160114 (http://in.reuters.com/article/india-economy-growth-poll-rbi-rate-idINKCN0US0MU20160114)

Extract: ""India continues to experience moderate inflation and only a gradual uptick in economic activity," wrote Siddhartha Sanyal at Barclays, one of the two analysts calling for a more than 25 basis point cut in the RBI's repo rate, currently 6.75 percent.
Still, this is a better outlook than for some fellow emerging market economies, like China, where growth forecasts have been reduced modestly but financial market turmoil since the start of the year suggests greater problems.
India is likely to comfortably maintain a faster growth rate than China over the next few years. The most pessimistic forecast for growth next year in India matches the most optimistic figure for China - 7 percent.
India's economy is expected to expand 7.5 percent in 2015/16 and at a slightly faster 7.8 percent in 2016/17, the same as forecast in a poll three months ago."
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 30, 2016, 08:27:49 PM
India Coal Plant Developer Switches to Solar for Site in Punja
Quote
A prominent developer of coal-fired power plants in India is seeking to switch to solar for an 800-acre (324-hectare) site in Punjab it had earmarked for another thermal plant, saying the economics of photovoltaics are more attractive.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-29/india-coal-plant-developer-switches-to-solar-for-site-in-punjab (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-29/india-coal-plant-developer-switches-to-solar-for-site-in-punjab)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 04, 2016, 08:50:33 AM
The linked Aljazeera article discusses the malaria crisis in India that the government does not want to acknowledge.  Malaria is carried by mosquitoes that are likely beginning promoted by climate change (in much the same manner as the Zika virus):

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2016/1/11/malaria-crisis-india-doesnt-want-to-acknowledge.html (http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2016/1/11/malaria-crisis-india-doesnt-want-to-acknowledge.html)

Extract: "The Indian government has spent billions of dollars — about $500 million from 2000 to 2013 — in its fight against malaria, a mosquito-borne disease. International agencies such as the World Bank and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, a big funder of global public health efforts, have provided major support. The country’s revamped national malaria program is on par with the standard of global care. But its recordkeeping has few admirers. Last year the government recorded only 561 deaths due to malaria, while an independent estimate earlier in the decade shows that the real toll could be as high as 200,000 each year. The disease is especially prevalent among the poor and in India’s vast rural areas, where about two-thirds of the population lives but is served by just 20 percent of the country’s health care infrastructure."
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 04, 2016, 09:12:34 AM
The linked Al Jazeera article discusses how climate change has altered India's monsoons & the associated consequences.  I note that some of the worse collapses of India's monsoons have occurred in weak to moderate (i.e. ONI 0.5 to 1.0) El Nino years (see my Reply #18 in this thread), as the attached NOAA plot is projecting for the second half of 2016.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2016/01/india-monsoons-change-rain-160124090758074.html (http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2016/01/india-monsoons-change-rain-160124090758074.html)

Extract: "Climate change has altered India's monsoons and, consequently, affected its land, species and people."

Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 22, 2016, 02:47:06 AM
The linked article indicates that if the West assists with financing then India could help dramatically in the fight against climate change; however, if the West continues playing politics, then India's contribution could well tip in the other direction:

http://www.psmag.com/nature-and-technology/indias-next-decade-could-decide-the-future-of-our-climate (http://www.psmag.com/nature-and-technology/indias-next-decade-could-decide-the-future-of-our-climate)

Extract: "India faces many challenges in climate change policy. It has more than twice as many vehicles today as in 2005. As wealth expands, those numbers will balloon further. Deforestation—much of it linked to coal extraction—has the potential to undermine the country’s gains in renewable energy. The list goes on.

But in so many ways, India is moving in the right direction. It just needs a financial nudge. Will the world give one, or is India simply too useful as a scapegoat?"
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 22, 2016, 07:17:17 PM
The linked (open access) reference provides observational records showing that climate change is accelerating a trend for Indian monsoon related droughts.  This combined with the risk of ENSO related Indian monsoon droughts, indicates the potential for future unrest in the Indian sub-continent (I note also the India is the world's largest arms importer which may be partially related policy approach to climate change induced instability):

Ganeshchandra Mallya, Vimal Mishra, Dev Niyogi, Shivam Tripathi & Rao S. Govindaraju (6 February 2016), "Trends and variability of droughts over the Indian monsoon region", Weather and Climate Extremes, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2016.01.002

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094715300578 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094715300578)

Abstract: "Drought characteristics for the Indian monsoon region are analyzed using two different datasets and standard precipitation index (SPI), standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), Gaussian mixture model-based drought index (GMM-DI), and hidden Markov model-based drought index (HMM-DI) for the period 1901–2004. Drought trends and variability were analyzed for three epochs: 1901–1935, 1936–1971 and 1972–2004. Irrespective of the dataset and methodology used, the results indicate an increasing trend in drought severity and frequency during the recent decades (1972–2004). Droughts are becoming more regional and are showing a general shift to the agriculturally important coastal south-India, central Maharashtra, and Indo-Gangetic plains indicating higher food security and socioeconomic vulnerability in the region."
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 24, 2016, 06:50:57 PM
The linked "The Next Great Famine" by Amy Davidson, notes that great famines can occur relatively abruptly and singles out the possibility of a sustained failure of the South Asian (Indian) monsoon.  I have previously noted that the interaction of global warming with ENSO variations could result in a failure of the South Asian monsoon (mixed with intermittent floods)  much sooner than indicated by the article:

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/01/11/the-next-great-famine (http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/01/11/the-next-great-famine)

Extract: "A particularly alarming prospect is the sustained failure of the South Asian monsoon. The food supply for more than a billion people relies on the rains of the monsoon season. Models suggest that, in the next century, monsoons will become more and more erratic and extreme. A failed monsoon can mean that the rain hasn’t come, or that it has come in the wrong place for the wrong amount of time. In recent years, India has experienced droughts but also floods, like the one that wreaked havoc in Chennai in December. Last year, in a report on possible monsoon failures, The Economist noted that “immense cloudbursts in Uttarakhand killed over 6,000 people in 2013.” And India’s polluted, particle-heavy air can make the rain fall harder."
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 25, 2016, 03:49:25 PM
The WTO swats down India’s massive solar initiative:

http://grist.org/climate-energy/wto-swats-down-indias-massive-solar-initiative/ (http://grist.org/climate-energy/wto-swats-down-indias-massive-solar-initiative/)

Extract: "The World Trade Organization delivered a blow to India’s ambitious solar power program on Wednesday at the behest of the United States. So much for all that nice chatter about international climate cooperation back in December.

Responding to a U.S. complaint, a WTO dispute panel ruled that several provisions of India’s National Solar Mission were “inconsistent” with international trade norms. The point of contention? India’s solar plan, which seeks to install 100 gigawatts of solar capacity by 2022, requires a certain percentage of cells and panels to be manufactured locally."
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 12, 2016, 09:05:44 PM
Protest in India against planned coal power plant.

‘Long march to save Sundarbans' begins
Quote
Demonstrators have begun a four-day-long “long march” from Dhaka to Khulna in protest against the Rampal power plant, which they believe is a threat to the world’s largest mangrove forest the Sundarbans.

Environmentalists, cultural and political activists, and eminent individuals kick-started the march that began from Jatiya Press Club this morning in a bid to press the government to abandon the Rampal power plant.

The government, until now, is bent on establishing the India-Bangladesh joint venture 1,320MW coal-fired power plant 14 kilometres upstream of the Sundarbans Reserve Forest, a world heritage site declared by UNESCO.
...
“It is a project of mass destruction,” said Prof Anu Muhammad, member secretary of National Committee to Protect Oil, Gas, Mineral Resources, Power and Ports at the launch of the “long march” from Dhaka.

He slammed the government for “dubious approach” to climate change – claiming recognition for contribution to environment while “trying to destroy the Sundarbans” all the same.
http://www.thedailystar.net/country/‘long-march’-save-sundarbans-begins-789157 (http://www.thedailystar.net/country/‘long-march’-save-sundarbans-begins-789157)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 12, 2016, 09:20:11 PM
More on the WTO Ruling (see #45):

Solar mission: India to appeal against WTO ruling
Quote
India's solar manufacturers still largely assemble products with the basic material - such as polysilicon chips - purchased mostly from China. As a result, Indian solar cells and modules end up becoming 8-10% costlier than those from China, Malaysia or Taiwan - from where most solar developers in India source their modules - and are often technologically inferior. Even though the US had complained against India to the WTO, solar imports from the US are fairly low.

"It is a blow for domestic solar manufacturers because the DCR was a safety net for them," said Vinay Rustagi, managing director of Bridge to India, a consultancy firm. "But DCR could never have been a long-term, sustainable policy. Many fundamental reforms are needed to make local industry competitive in the long run."

Sunil Rathi, director of sales and marketing at Waree Energies insisted that the local industry was quite capable of competing. "Developers are changing their attitude to Indian modules," he said. "Our prices too are falling. We are becoming competitive. But to make 'Make in India' a success, local manufacturers need to be encouraged in a bigger way."

"The root cause of our problems is the dumping of solar cells and modules by China," said Sharma of ISMA. Either anti-dumping duty should be imposed or DCR should be continued. If neither of these is done, local industry will be seriously damaged. And heavy dependence on imports is highly risky for solar developers too because of the currency fluctuations. Low-cost imports are only a short-term benefit."
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/solar-mission-india-to-appeal-against-wto-ruling/articleshow/51147890.cms (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/solar-mission-india-to-appeal-against-wto-ruling/articleshow/51147890.cms)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 29, 2016, 04:48:24 PM
The linked article indicates that the water supply from the Ganges River is becoming less reliable due to a combination of climate change induced reductions in monsoon rains, and reduced meltwater from the Himalayas:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-35888535 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-35888535)

Extract: "Monsoon rains have been scanty in India for the second year in succession. The melting of snow in the Himalayas - the mountain holds the world's largest body of ice outside the polar caps and contributes up to 15% of the river flow - has been delayed this year, says SK Haldar, general manager of the barrage. "There are fluctuations like this every year," he says."
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Bob Wallace on March 29, 2016, 08:50:21 PM
India has recognized the problems they will face with climate change and has been building a number of dams to store water.  California may have to do the same as the annual snowpack lessens and takes away a natural water storage system.
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 29, 2016, 09:59:48 PM
India has recognized the problems they will face with climate change and has been building a number of dams to store water.

Dams on the Ganges in India are generally bad news for the even more desperate people in Bangladesh.  It sound like policy makers are just kicking the can down the road.
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Bob Wallace on March 29, 2016, 11:22:12 PM
More like one group of people acting in their own self interest.

Like that hasn't happened before?

Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 30, 2016, 12:35:03 AM
More like one group of people acting in their own self interest.

Like that hasn't happened before?

Which is precisely why we are in the climate change situation that we are currently in, and why it will likely be difficult to avoid large negative climate change impacts.
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Bob Wallace on March 30, 2016, 04:41:53 AM
Sure it will be difficult.  The road will not be smooth and some missteps will occur.

We are in the climatic fix we're in because almost no one understood the gravity of what we were doing.  To a large extent we are still in the awaking phase and only entering the "let's not let this get out of hand" phase.  But the great thing is that we have the technology we need right now to get us off fossil fuels and those technologies have become affordable.  In fact, by switching to renewable energy and electric transportation we will spend much less for both our electricity and travel.

As awareness and concern grow we'll ramp up the transition off fossil fuels and, hopefully, dodge the big bullet.
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 31, 2016, 01:18:31 PM
EU, India outline climate and clean energy package
Quote
The European Union vowed to help India realise its clean energy aspirations at a bilateral summit in Brussels on Wednesday.

In a joint declaration, the major economies pledged to cooperate on integrating India’s electricity grid with large solar parks, support the development of smart grids and assist in the planning of its first offshore wind array.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/03/30/eu-india-outline-climate-and-clean-energy-package/ (http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/03/30/eu-india-outline-climate-and-clean-energy-package/)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 18, 2016, 08:38:10 PM
The linked Vox article is entitled: "The climate fight will be won or lost in India, in 8 charts", and indicates that unless the first world steps up and provides at least an addition $5.3 trillion in sustainable investments in India, Vietnam, and other SE Asian nations (well before 2040), then the Paris Pact goals are toast:

http://www.vox.com/2016/6/14/11919610/india-decarbonization-8-graphs (http://www.vox.com/2016/6/14/11919610/india-decarbonization-8-graphs)

Extract: "… India, not China, is becoming the key to global decarbonization.
Most of the big emitters have gotten a handle on their electricity systems, meaning that they are on track to phase out coal and (somewhat later) natural gas. They’re not doing it fast enough, but at least they are on the right trajectory. That’s even true for China, where just a few years ago analysts were saying that coal would dominate forever. Now there’s a post-2020 moratorium on new coal plants.
India, however, is a different story. Its economy is growing quickly, and with it electricity demand. That means even with the audacious renewable energy goals Modi has laid out, coal consumption is going to triple in India by 2040, with 258 GW of new coal capacity coming online.
As a result of this new coal, BNEF says, "power sector emissions will still be 5 percent higher in 2040, as progress in the EU, US and China is offset by steep emissions growth in India and SE Asia.""
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 22, 2016, 05:20:41 PM
Scribbler just posted the linked article entitled: "The Increasingly Dangerous Hothouse — Local Reports Show It Felt Like 160 F (71 C) in India on June 13th, 2016".  I agree with Scribbler that the impact of climate change on the 1.2 Billion Indians is a "pretty big deal".  Policy makers who think that what happens in India will stay in India, will likely soon find out that they were sadly mistaken:

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/06/21/the-increasingly-dangerous-hothouse-local-reports-show-it-felt-like-170-f-77-c-in-bhubaneswar-on-june-13th-2016/

Extract: "The climate change induced delay of India’s monsoon is a pretty big deal. Not only does it reduce the amount of moisture — necessary for the provision of life-giving crops for this country of 1.2 billion — provided by the annual rains, it also increases the potential for life threatening heatwave conditions. And according to local reports, some of the highest heat index values ever recorded on the face of the Earth were seen in Bhubaneswar, India during a period of record heat and high humidity as the Asian Monsoon struggled to advance."
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 30, 2016, 05:48:01 PM
Climate change is already leading to an abrupt increase in murder and violence in India:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-water-violence-idUSKCN0ZF0IW (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-water-violence-idUSKCN0ZF0IW)

Extract: "Murders, violence on rise as parched central India battles for water."

Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 05, 2016, 07:40:38 PM
How India's 'smart villages' are centralising solar power
Quote
India's green energy sector has a tendency to "sell and run" - high-end equipment is installed, but a lack of maintenance support for remote villages means systems often fall into disrepair, he adds.

So Mr Das decided to create a smart grid technology that allows a village's entire electrical infrastructure to be monitored remotely.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-36681112 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-36681112)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 26, 2016, 02:07:14 AM
‘Solar Zones’ policy announced by India to spur large-scale solar projects
Quote
India has been in the news, as we’ve seen, lately with their admirable efforts to speed up their country’s transition to more sustainable energy sources. We have already seen India announce its plan for all their cars to be electric by the year 2030, and more recently, we saw the country’s transport minister offer up its land for Tesla. Fast forward to today, as reported by Planetsave, India has now publicized their initiative to “identify and designate ‘solar zones'” in the country.

The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy states in the beginning of their ten-page document that they seek to have a total of 10 ‘solar zones’ with each of them having around 10,000 hectares of either government or private land. They continue on to state their main objective for the program:

The scheme aims to provide a huge impetus to solar energy generation by acting as a flagship demonstration facility to encourage project developers and investors, thereby helping the country in achieving its target of 100,000 MW by 2022. The solar zones will enable the States to bring in significant investment from project developers, meet its Solar Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO) mandate and provide employment opportunities to local population. The State will also reduce its carbon footprint by avoiding emissions equivalent to the solar zone’s installed capacity and generation. Further, the State will also avoid procuring expensive fossil fuels to power conventional power plants.
http://electrek.co/2016/07/25/solar-zones-policy-announced-by-india-to-spur-large-scale-solar-projects/ (http://electrek.co/2016/07/25/solar-zones-policy-announced-by-india-to-spur-large-scale-solar-projects/)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 31, 2016, 06:43:23 PM
Railways aims to significantly reduce carbon footprints
Quote
NEW DELHI: Indian Railways, the largest energy consumer in the country, has set a target of harnessing 1,000 MW of solar energy and 15 MW of wind energy in the next four years as part of efforts to reduce its carbon footprint.

"We have undertaken steps to increase the use of clean energy to reduce emissions and in this regard we have set a target of harnessing 1,000 MW of solar and 150 MW of wind energy by 2020," said Railway Executive Director Sudhir Garg at the release of a report on 'Decarbonisation Indian Railways' here today.

The Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations and the Climate Policy Initiative in their reports have identified potential pathways to decarbonise the Railways by 2030.
http://m.timesofindia.com/india/Railways-aims-to-significantly-reduce-carbon-footprints/articleshow/53338488.cms (http://m.timesofindia.com/india/Railways-aims-to-significantly-reduce-carbon-footprints/articleshow/53338488.cms)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 24, 2016, 05:59:34 PM
India now has an electrical energy surplus; which it has primarily achieved by building more coal-fired power plants:

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/india-achieves-historical-first-ever-surplus-of-power/ (http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/india-achieves-historical-first-ever-surplus-of-power/)

Extract: "For the first time since India’s independence in 1947, the country now has a power surplus. This is a remarkable achievement as India was just a few years ago grappling with rampant power deficits and outages. The surplus comes from increased capacity (mostly coal) additions rather than energy efficiency improvements, but with Indian cities accounting for six out of the top 10 worst polluted cities in the world, progress is not without complications.

India’s progress on achieving a power surplus is movement forward by one important metric, but unless it expands electrification and reduces pollution (both local and global) it will be a pyrrhic victory."
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: sidd on August 24, 2016, 07:24:38 PM
A "surplus of electrical power" is a terrible term to use when 300 million souls have no access to electricity in India
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 09, 2016, 07:19:41 PM
India is the key to a potential timely agreement on HFC, as discussed in the linked article:

http://in.reuters.com/article/climatechange-hfcs-idINKCN1290CO (http://in.reuters.com/article/climatechange-hfcs-idINKCN1290CO)

Extract: "India will face pressure to speed up its plans for cutting greenhouse gases used in refrigerators, air conditioning and aerosols when governments meet this week to hammer out what would be a third key deal to limit climate change in a month.
About 150 nations meet in Rwanda, from Oct. 10-14 to try to agree a phase down of factory-made hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) gases. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will be among those attending.
A quick phase-down of HFCs could be a big contribution to slow climate change, avoiding perhaps 0.5 degree Celsius (0.9 Fahrenheit) of a projected rise in average temperatures by 2100, scientists say.
But India wants a peak in poor nations' rising emissions only in 2031, to give industries time to adapt. More than 100 other nations including the United States, the European Union and African states, favour a peak in 2021.
"It really does matter how early the agreement kicks in," said Jake Schmidt, of the U.S. Natural Resources Defense Council, which reckons India's proposal would add the equivalent of almost a year of global carbon emissions to the atmosphere.
"We must get enough time before the phasing out period starts. We are very clear," Indian Environment Minister Anil Madhav Dave said on Oct. 1, according to the Times of India.
Use of HFCs, which can be 10,000 times more powerful than carbon dioxide as greenhouse gases, is already declining in many rich nations."
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 06, 2016, 02:08:05 PM
The linked article is entitled: "New Delhi Crippled by Pollution, Forcing Closure of Schools and Power Plants".  It looks like New Delhi is experiencing the air pollution problems that Beijing experienced not too long ago:

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/new-delhi-crippled-pollution-forcing-closure-schools-power-plants-n678601 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/new-delhi-crippled-pollution-forcing-closure-schools-power-plants-n678601)

Extract: "India's capital announced a slew of measures Sunday to combat the crippling air pollution that has engulfed the city, including closing down schools, halting construction and ordering that all roads be doused with water to settle dust.

New Delhi, one of the world's dirtiest cities, saw levels of PM2.5 — tiny particulate matter that can clog lungs — soar to over 900 micrograms per cubic meter on Saturday. That's more than 90 times the level considered safe by the World Health Organization and 15 times the Indian government's norms."
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 17, 2016, 05:35:11 PM
Some of the new coal plants will replace old, worse-polluting ones.

India to halt building new coal plants in 2022
Draft government plan finds no need for new coal stations beyond those already under construction, calls for massive renewable energy push
Quote
At the same time, the report aims to add 100GW of solar and wind. These renewable energy additions would more than double India’s clean energy capacity.

This would put India on course to far exceed its pledges to the Paris agreement, said Siddharth Singh, associate fellow at The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) in New Delhi.

Narendra Modi’s government has promised to get 40% of  its electricity from non-fossil sources (renewable and nuclear) by 2030, with finance and technology sharing from wealthier countries.

The CEA proposal would mean the non-fossil share would increase to 53% as early as 2027, up from 31% today, without relying on international support.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/12/16/india-to-halt-building-new-coal-plants-in-2022/ (http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/12/16/india-to-halt-building-new-coal-plants-in-2022/)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 02, 2017, 03:35:10 PM
In Rural India, Solar-Powered Microgrids Show Mixed Success
As India looks to bring electricity to the quarter of its population still without it, nonprofit groups are increasingly turning to solar microgrids to provide power to the nation’s villages. But the initiatives so far have faced major challenges.
http://e360.yale.edu/feature/in_rural_india_solar-powered_microgrids_show_mixed_success/2948/ (http://e360.yale.edu/feature/in_rural_india_solar-powered_microgrids_show_mixed_success/2948/)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 21, 2017, 09:51:34 PM
India’s solar capacity to double in 2017
Quote
In 2017, India’s solar capacity is projected to double to 18 GW, with 14.2 GW of solar projects currently under development and tenders for approximately 6.3 GW are yet to be auctioned.

India’s solar capacity is set to double as large projects are commissioned, despite the short-term challenges of power limitation and weak tendering in certain states, according to sector expert and power producers.
http://www.climateactionprogramme.org/news/indias_solar_capacity_to_double_in_2017 (http://www.climateactionprogramme.org/news/indias_solar_capacity_to_double_in_2017)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 27, 2017, 12:22:44 AM
India’s polluted air now kills 1.1 million people per year
Quote
...India has also set a lofty goal for its transition to renewable energy, with plans to obtain around 60 percent of the country’s electricity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2027. That would put the country on track to beat its commitments made during the Paris climate conference in 2015 years ahead of schedule. As the world’s fourth-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, that would be a big win for climate — but it would also help cut down on the air pollution and particulate matter plaguing Indian cities. Over the past year, India has received over $20 million in investments aimed at building out the country’s solar capacity in order to meet the country’s growing demand for electricity; currently, some 240 million people in India lack access to electricity, meaning they often turn to polluting sources like wood and animal dung. A Delhi-based research group also suggested earlier this week that if the cost of renewable energy continues to decline at its current rate, India could be completely coal-free by 2050....
https://thinkprogress.org/air-pollution-deaths-china-india-report-7b50ca86c3b2
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 12, 2017, 06:19:02 PM
The linked article is entitled: "Modi's BJP Party Wins Heart of India Voters".  It is my opinion that the win by Modi's BJP party can be seen as an extension of the worldwide alt-right populist movement to 'purportedly" provide more jobs/wealth to the people; even at the expense of the environment.

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/03/12/519897399/modi-s-bjp-party-wins-heart-of-india-voters (http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/03/12/519897399/modi-s-bjp-party-wins-heart-of-india-voters)

Extract: "Young Indians want a more prosperous country in their lifetime and appear to have seized on Prime Minister Narendra Modi to deliver it."

Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: James Lovejoy on March 13, 2017, 05:29:08 PM
Modi may have some characteristics of the alt-right, but he isn't a captive of ff like some.

His development goals include installing 175 GW of renewables by 2022, and past policies included providing LEDs to the people.

Some of his views may be problematic, and I hope that those aren't implemented.  But though he may not be a green warrior, he is agressively pushing clean energy.

Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: rboyd on March 13, 2017, 09:42:27 PM
India has massively overbuilt its coal-fired electricity generating capacity in the past five years, and together with the 50GW additions from 2017-2022 will have doubled its coal-fired capacity in 10 years - to 249GW (plus 30GW natural gas capacity). This is a huge amount of brand-new capacity that can have very high utilization rates (much higher than wind and solar), and financial pressure for higher utilization levels.

Increases in renewables will be more than offset by increases in electricity demand, with the result that India's emissions will continue to rise through 2027. The capacity mix will be substantially altered by then, down to 44% from fossil fuels, plus 11% from hydro and 43% from other renewables, plus 2% from nuclear. Capacity * Utilization = output, and with the fossil fuel plants capable of much higher levels of utilization quite possibly 60%+ of output could still be from fossil fuels.

India's commitment to a huge buildout of renewables is commendable, but the logic of continued rapid economic growth driving rapid growth in electricity demand that more than offsets renewable growth is the reality that faces all the optimistic prognostications.

I gave up a long time ago relying on a lot of the climate change sites to not positively spin everything, so ended actually reading the underlying policy documents.

Government of India (2016), Draft National Energy Plan, Government of India. Accessible at http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/committee/nep/nep_dec.pdf (http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/committee/nep/nep_dec.pdf)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 23, 2017, 03:41:34 PM
750 Megawatt Solar Project In India Will Receive Loan At 0.25% From World Bank
Quote
The solar power project that has taken the Indian market by storm is set to receive debt funding at perhaps the cheapest possible rates.

Rewa solar power park will receive debt finance at just 0.25% from the World Bank. A few weeks back, a competitive auction for the 750 megawatt (MW) solar power park in Rewa, Madhya Pradesh, yielded the lowest-ever tariff for a solar power project in India. The contract for development of the solar park has been awarded to three companies that will set up 250 megawatts of capacity each....
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/03/22/750-megawatt-solar-project-india-will-receive-loan-0-25-world-bank/


Electrek says:
Quote
This is just below the going rate for banks that borrow directly from the United States (or really rich people who have hard collateral). The World Bank does have political reasons for giving a loan like this and the loan is probably backed by India. Nonetheless, big names like this giving big money like this are important – for one, that one group is doing it means others will soon follow. And that means 1GW solar power plants will get built a lot more often.
https://electrek.co/2017/03/23/electrek-green-energy-brief-worldbank-loan-at-0-25-for-750mw-trump-says-no-to-carbon-tax-more/
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 15, 2017, 10:35:24 PM
Local opposition and central government pivots have stopped the construction of many coal plants in India
Quote
... Of the 16 giant plants that India proposed, just two Ultra Mega Power Projects were built — a 4,000-megawatt station in Gujarat and a second in Madhya Pradesh. Both are hindered by severe operating and financial stresses, along with powerful civic opposition. Last summer, due to lack of interest by developers, the government announced it was cancelling UMPP installations in Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Odisha. The Cheyyur plant never attracted a committed builder.
...
By July 2014, though, when the study was made public, the pressure and urgency for building mega power projects was visibly deflating. The cost for completing UMPP plants had more than doubled, according to government figures. Prime Minister Modi, and Piyush Goyal, India’s energy minister, announced striking policy shifts to pivot India’s electricity sector to renewable energy sources from more expensive and polluting fossil fuels, a sizable share of which had to be imported. Moreover, the equipment to harvest wind and solar could be made in India.
...
In December 2016, India released a draft national energy plan that set a target of generating nearly 60 percent of the country’s electricity, around 275 gigawatts, from wind, solar, biomass, and small hydropower plants by 2027. India currently relies on coal for about 70 percent of its electricity. Modi pledged to “achieve energy security for India based on clean fuels.”

The policy changes are having their desired effects. The Central Electric Authority declared that India does not need to start construction of any new coal-fired generating plants for at least the next decade.

Energy Minister Goyal, who is intensely interested in closing a drain on India’s balance of trade and limiting climate emissions, also is a powerful influence. He has vowed to halt coal imports by the end of the decade. Coal imports, which reached an average of 18 million metric tons monthly in 2014, fell to 11.6 million metric tons a month from March to May, 2016. In an address to a meeting of energy officials shortly after the December energy plan was made public, Minister Goyal declared: “We have to look at a world beyond fossil fuels.”
http://www.circleofblue.org/2017/world/chased-drought-rising-costs-clean-technology-india-pivots-coal-fired-power/ (http://www.circleofblue.org/2017/world/chased-drought-rising-costs-clean-technology-india-pivots-coal-fired-power/)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: sidd on April 16, 2017, 01:26:04 AM
Heeheehee. What Goyal's statement tells me is that Adnani has fallen out of favor in New Delhi, and it will be a cold day in hell before he sells any australian coal in india. Poor, dumb bastard. Mark down Adnani Group debt as a short.
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 16, 2017, 04:15:50 AM
The linked article is entitled: “Soaring beyond 100: Early heat wave that bakes India is a sign of what’s to come”, & it indicates that India could act like a canary in a coal mine to show the rest of the world the coming impacts of climate change.

http://www.salon.com/2017/04/15/soaring-beyond-100-early-heat-wave-that-bakes-india-is-a-sign-of-what-will-to-come_partner/ (http://www.salon.com/2017/04/15/soaring-beyond-100-early-heat-wave-that-bakes-india-is-a-sign-of-what-will-to-come_partner/)

Extract: “Temperatures across northern India, including the capital New Delhi, are set to soar well above 100°F (37.8°C) through the weekend and into next week thanks to a pre-monsoon heat wave that has set in somewhat earlier than normal.

Such heat waves are expected to become both more common and more intense as the world warms from the continued buildup of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, in India and elsewhere, posing a threat to public health. Studies have suggested that India will be a particular hotspot for populations stressed by the combination of extreme heat and humidity.”
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: rboyd on April 24, 2017, 02:48:30 AM
India has launched an impressive renewable energies program, but its coal consumption will continue to grow in the years ahead. This illustrates the difficulty of launching an energy transition when economic growth, demographic pressure and the emergence of a middle class make all forms of energy necessary.

"With 1.3 billion inhabitants, India is the world's second most populous country, after China. In less than seven years, it should overtake its Asian neighbor and see its population rise to 1.5 billion by around 2030. In 2035, India aims to be one of the world's top five economies, with major development in its middle classes. This demographic and economic expansion means that the Indian sub-continent has a growing need for energy. Its energy consumption has doubled since 1990, making it the world's third-largest consumer, after China and the United States. Of course, average per capita energy consumption remains very low."

"While demand for coal is rising in India, it is stabilizing in China where consumption levels in 2021 should be below those of 2013. India's difficulty in following China's example is due to a much higher birth rate and rapid economic growth that it justifiably refuses to curb. According to Indian national statistics, between March 2015 and March 2016 growth in GDP was 7.6%, the highest rate worldwide."

"As in China, the new Indian willingness is strengthened by the problems of urban pollution, resulting from surrounding coal-fired power plants, an exponential increase in vehicles running on fuels not subject to European standards and the lack of truck traffic regulations. Pollution has reached alarming levels in the capital New Delhi where the level of fine particles is the world's highest according to the World Health Organization (WHO)."

http://www.planete-energies.com/en/medias/close/india-and-coal-difficult-energy-transition-developing-countries (http://www.planete-energies.com/en/medias/close/india-and-coal-difficult-energy-transition-developing-countries)

Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Bob Wallace on April 24, 2017, 03:52:44 AM
IIRC, India has overbuilt and has coal plants that they don't need.

India could use a much larger amount of electricity but they are grid limited.  The grid they have is pretty funky and there are many places the grid does not reach.

And upon checking...

Quote
More surprisingly, India’s latest National Electricity Plan showed no need for further plants beyond those already under construction. Despite huge latent demand, with around one in three Indians off the power grid, some stations have been idling. Affordability and a lack of network infrastructure remain barriers to access – and financiers are getting cold feet.

http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/03/22/coal-power-pipeline-shrinks-dramatically-boon-climate/ (http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/03/22/coal-power-pipeline-shrinks-dramatically-boon-climate/)


I'd suggest we take any predictions about increasing coal (and nuclear) plant installations with a grain of salt at this time.  I don't think the people doing the predictions fully understand what really cheap wind, solar and storage are going to do to "What shall we build?" decisions.
---

I think India really needs to do some wind mapping at 140 meter hub heights.  They don't have a lot of inland wind at 80 meters.  Neither did the US Southeast.  But we stuck the anemometers up another 60 meters and the picture greatly changed.
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: rboyd on April 24, 2017, 05:18:36 AM
India has all the extra coal capacity they need to meet their extra coal usage needs in the next few years. Agreed that there will not be any new builds, but that does not mean that there will not be any increase in the usage of coal.

Fixed now, thanks Bob.
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Bob Wallace on April 24, 2017, 05:42:25 AM
Quote
Agreed that there will not be any new builds, but that does not mean that there will be any increase in the usage of coal.

It that what you meant to write?
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: sidd on April 24, 2017, 05:54:56 AM
Coal India, the largest coal company in the world, is building solar plants. They know whats coming.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/power/coal-india-to-call-tender-for-setting-up-800-mw-solar-project-at-rs-4800-crore/articleshow/51032377.cms (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/power/coal-india-to-call-tender-for-setting-up-800-mw-solar-project-at-rs-4800-crore/articleshow/51032377.cms)

Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Bob Wallace on April 24, 2017, 06:35:37 AM
India is pretty much the only country among the larger users that has continued to increase consumption through 2015.  But there are signs that coal consumption increases might be plateauing.

Quote
For all the coal industry continues to point to India as a source of growth for thermal coal, the reports out of India show that far from growth, India is looking to rationalize and modernize its coal fired power fleet in the face of increasing water stress and particulate pollution. Having doubled the coal cess (sic) in the latest budget, in May 2016 India announced plans to close 37 GW of coal fired power capacity that has reached the end of its useful life and where upgrades are not commercially viable.

http://ieefa.org/coal-decline-steepens-2016-2/ (http://ieefa.org/coal-decline-steepens-2016-2/)


Prime Minister Modi is a major supporter of solar.  He made his name largely by overseeing some massively large solar farms in Gujarat where he was head of the state government before he came to national office.

And as India's economy improves there is more and more call to clean up the air.   

Finally there's the coal/water problem.  India can find better things to do with massive amounts of water other than cleaning coal and turning it to steam.
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: rboyd on April 24, 2017, 07:56:39 PM
I wonder if the intensifying droughts will have an impact here, due to water shortages and reduced efficiency of the coal-fired stations (warmer water will reduce the cooling efficiency).

Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: TerryM on April 24, 2017, 10:31:38 PM
I wonder if the intensifying droughts will have an impact here, due to water shortages and reduced efficiency of the coal-fired stations (warmer water will reduce the cooling efficiency).
I would guess that phase change between water/water vapor is what is utilized for cooling. If so the initial temperature of the water matters very little. The amount of water available to boil off should be the determining factor.


Terry
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: rboyd on April 24, 2017, 11:44:38 PM
Thanks Terry, so the big variables will be drought and flooding (I still remember the images of a nuclear power plant next to the Missouri River surrounded by water in 2011).

Given that the Indian rivers may get swollen as upstream glaciers melt out, and have sudden large discharges as lake walls collapse, that could be a problem - for any thermal power plant. The timeframe may be decades away though. So in the near-term, its droughts and seems to be a reality already - from last year:

"Coal power plants in eastern, central and southern India have had to shut down due to a lack of water for cooling. Some shutdowns have been temporary, for a few days or weeks, but others have been much more serious, lasting months ... As of June 1, 2016, over 4GW of coal remained shut due to a lack of cooling water."

http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/2016/06/09/drought-costs-india-coal-companies-350-million/ (http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/2016/06/09/drought-costs-india-coal-companies-350-million/)

That nuclear power station, surrounded by the river
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Bob Wallace on April 24, 2017, 11:50:02 PM
I wonder if the intensifying droughts will have an impact here, due to water shortages and reduced efficiency of the coal-fired stations (warmer water will reduce the cooling efficiency).

Water use by coal plants (and coal cleaning) is a topic of discussion both in India and China.  Both countries are in need of more water and spend a huge amount on coal (and nuclear).

This is likely to be a factor going forward.  With much more affordable renewables becoming available I suspect there's going to be a lot more critical analysis given to thermal plants.  Water use (and air pollution for coal) will get line item inclusion in the decision making process.  Both countries are getting significant pushback from their citizens over coal pollution and both governments realize the consequences of large scale water shortages.
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: rboyd on April 25, 2017, 05:10:34 AM
Natural Gas plants, being thermal, would have the same problem?
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Bob Wallace on April 25, 2017, 05:21:46 AM
Combined cycle plants which have both a turbine and a steam generator.  The waste heat from the turbine is used to boil water into steam.

Gas peakers are turbine only.  And mostly used for short term demand as they are about 40% less efficient than CCNG plants.  But it takes around three hours for the steam portion of a CCNG to get hot enough to generate electricity.

Since a larger portion of the electricity from a CCNG plant comes from steam I would guess that they use something less than half as much water as a coal or nuclear plant per MWh. 

And coal uses a lot of water in cleaning/processing the coal before it's used.
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: rboyd on April 25, 2017, 06:19:57 AM
Increasing drought could then have very serious issues for electricity provision. Fossil fuel and nuclear generation may be greatly limited, and hydroelectricity will also be limited (as in Brazil recently).
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: sidd on April 25, 2017, 07:05:55 AM
I posted here about the effects of drought on one of the larger coal plants in the world, 2+GW shutdown due to drought in West Bengal last year

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,846.msg72549.html#msg72549

sidd
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Hefaistos on May 10, 2017, 07:17:56 PM
Solar power is already cheaper than FF alternatives in India - prices have fallen to 2.62 rupees per kilowatt hour, i..e  4 cents  (USD). Wholesale auction price. Last year’s previous record lowest bid was 4.34 rupees per kWh so it's a very dramatic fall in prices.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/may/10/indian-solar-power-prices-hit-record-low-undercutting-fossil-fuels (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/may/10/indian-solar-power-prices-hit-record-low-undercutting-fossil-fuels)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Bob Wallace on May 10, 2017, 11:06:43 PM
Quote
In India the Gujarat government has dropped a proposed 4000 megawatt (MW) coal plant, preferring to add new renewable energy capacity instead.

The results of the latest solar power auction in India underscore the speed of the shift: the winning bid was four US cents a kilowatt hour, on par with existing coal-fired generation. Even new coal plants in India are facing big problems. The leading Indian ratings agency, IRR, has warned falling utilisation rates at over 45,000 MW of coal plants are likely to result in loan defaults by private power utilities.

http://mailchi.mp/bfd0db83df87/coalwire-weekly-news-bulletin?e=2bbfae5944 (http://mailchi.mp/bfd0db83df87/coalwire-weekly-news-bulletin?e=2bbfae5944)

Looks like the tide is turning against coal in India.  India is likely to be aggressive in its move away from coal due to public pressure over poor air quality.  Add in a strong move to EVs and India is likely to hit personal CO2 peak before long.
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Bob Wallace on May 24, 2017, 07:37:16 AM
Quote
Though India had been expected to be the site of a coal boom, plans for new coal construction totaling nearly 14 GW have been cancelled so far this month.

Analyst Tim Buckley of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis pegged the coal cancellations on record-low solar tariffs of three cents per KW/hr, The Independent reported. Buckley said as of January last year energy analysts predicted such a low price could never be achieved.
That price is lower than the current wholesale coal power price of four cents per KW/hr.

“For the first time solar is cheaper than coal in India and the implications this has for transforming global energy markets is profound,” Buckley said.

“Measures taken by the Indian Government to improve energy efficiency coupled with ambitious renewable energy targets and the plummeting cost of solar has had an impact on existing as well as proposed coal fired power plants, rendering an increasing number as financially unviable. India’s solar tariffs have literally been free falling in recent months.”

http://www.power-eng.com/articles/2017/05/india-cancels-plans-for-14-gw-of-coal-due-to-cheap-solar.html (http://www.power-eng.com/articles/2017/05/india-cancels-plans-for-14-gw-of-coal-due-to-cheap-solar.html)

Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 02, 2017, 12:58:23 AM
Cross-posted from Cars thread:

India will sell only electric cars within the next 13 years
Quote
Every car sold in India from 2030 will be electric, under new government plans that have delighted environmentalists and dismayed the oil industry.

It’s hoped that by ridding India’s roads of petrol and diesel cars in the years ahead, the country will be able to reduce the harmful levels of air pollution that contribute to a staggering 1.2 million deaths per year.

India’s booming economy has seen it become the world’s third-largest oil importer, shelling out $150 billion annually for the resource – so a switch to electric-powered vehicles would put a sizable dent in demand for oil. It’s been calculated that the revolutionary move would save the country $60 billion in energy costs by 2030, while also reducing running costs for millions of Indian car owners.
...
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/05/india-electric-car-sales-only-2030/ (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/05/india-electric-car-sales-only-2030/)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Bob Wallace on June 02, 2017, 01:08:49 AM
Quote
India will sell only electric cars within the next 13 years

That's going to drive the EV market.  India's economy is creating many more middle class people who want to own a car.

BTW, I just found out that Bangladesh's economy has been growing like gangbusters for the last few years.  Largely due to garment manufacturing which is bringing in needed capital.

India and Bangladesh really need battery powered autorickshaws. 
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: rboyd on June 05, 2017, 12:02:41 AM
India, Once a Coal Goliath, Is Fast Turning Green

"“Modi’s constituency is the middle class, and the middle class in Indian cities is choking on pollution,” Mr. Pant said. “Modi knows climate change is good politics. Climate change makes sense to Modi because he believes it as it is good economics and politics.”

Two major economic factors lie at the heart of India’s move away from coal. The first is that the country’s growth rate, while faster than that of most major economies, slipped to 6.1 percent for the most recent quarter, down from 7 percent in the previous quarter. And much of that growth has come in service industries rather than in power-hungry manufacturing.

Equally important is the startling drop in the price of renewable energy sources. Many energy experts say renewables are poised to become a less expensive alternative to coal within the next decade."

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/02/world/asia/india-coal-green-energy-climate.html?_r=0 (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/02/world/asia/india-coal-green-energy-climate.html?_r=0)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Bob Wallace on June 05, 2017, 01:06:57 AM
Where are wind and solar more expensive than new coal?
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 11, 2017, 08:02:36 PM
cross post from "Coal" thread:
It seems clear that money does not make a person smart.  :-\

An Indian billionaire is forging ahead with a massive coal mine in Australia that activists say will be a disaster for the environment.
Quote
Gautam Adani said Tuesday that he had given the "green light" to his firm's $12 billion coal project in Australia's northeastern Queensland state.

"This is the largest single investment by an Indian corporation in Australia, and I believe others will follow with investments and trade deals," Adani said in a statement.

The Adani Group is also building a 240-mile railway line and an airstrip at the mine, which it says will create at least 10,000 new jobs.

Environmental groups and many politicians are bitterly opposed to the project, saying it will lead to the destruction of the environment. Greenpeace Australia described it as a "death sentence" for the Great Barrier Reef.

"The people of Australia have overwhelmingly rejected this toxic project," Greenpeace campaigner Nikola Casule said in a statement on Tuesday. "The age of coal is dead and we need real leadership to ensure a just transition away from fossil fuels."

India, where Adani is planning to ship most of the Queensland coal, is trying to make that transition despite still relying on coal for 60% of its power. The Indian government is targeting a tenfold increase in solar energy capacity by 2022, and solar power is now cheaper than electricity from coal fired power stations.

"It doesn't make sense to be planning huge long-term investments in coal when we have surplus power production and rapidly falling cost of renewable power," Vinay Rustagi, managing director of energy consultancy Bridge to India, told CNNMoney. "It is hard to see any merit in this news from an Indian perspective."

Adani doesn't see it that way. He says the project will relieve "energy poverty in India," where 300 million people still aren't connected to the electricity grid....
http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/06/news/economy/coal-mine-australia-india-adani/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/06/news/economy/coal-mine-australia-india-adani/index.html)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: rboyd on June 14, 2017, 07:26:23 PM
Coal India will close 37 coal mines and plans 1 GW of solar

https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/coal-india-will-close-37-coal-mines-and-plans-1-gw-solar-india.html (https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/coal-india-will-close-37-coal-mines-and-plans-1-gw-solar-india.html)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 15, 2017, 04:04:48 AM
Tesla in active discussion with Indian government over sales and local manufacturing
Quote
Elon Musk confirmed via Twitter Wednesday that Tesla is in active discussions with the Indian government over the possibility of entering the local market with sales and manufacturing. When asked by one of his 9 million plus Twitter followers on whether Tesla’s plan to enter the Indian market has been postponed, Musk replied “In discussions with the government of India requesting temporary relief on import penalties/restrictions until a local factory is built”.

Tesla is in negotiations with Indian officials to work out a deal that would allow the manufacturer to bring its vehicles into the country without facing the steep penalties and restrictions that are currently levied on imports. Indian regulations currently impose heavy import duties on vehicles manufactured out of country to ensure locally produced vehicles can compete in the market....
http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-active-discussions-indian-government-sales-local-manufacturing/ (http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-active-discussions-indian-government-sales-local-manufacturing/)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 23, 2017, 02:30:05 AM
World's biggest coal company closes 37 mines as solar power's influence grows
Quote
The largest coal mining company in the world has announced it will close 37 mines because they are no longer economically viable.

Coal India, which produces around 82 per cent of India's coal, said the mines would be decommissioned by March 2018.

The closures, of around 9 per cent of the state-run firm's sites, will reportedly save around 8,000,000,000 rupees (£98m).

India's solar sector has received heavy international investment, and the plummeting price of solar electricity has increased pressure on fossil fuel companies in the country.

The government has announced it will not build any more coal plants after 2022 and predicts renewables will generate 57 per cent of its power by 2027 – a pledge far outstripping its commitment in the Paris climate change agreement.

Plans for nearly 14 gigawatts of coal-fired power stations – about the same as the total amount in the UK – were scrapped in May, signalling a seismic shift in the India's energy market.
...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coal-india-closes-37-mines-solar-power-sustainable-energy-market-influence-pollution-a7800631.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coal-india-closes-37-mines-solar-power-sustainable-energy-market-influence-pollution-a7800631.html)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 05, 2017, 07:05:29 PM
Nice effort.  I wonder how many will survive?

India plants 66 million trees in 12 hours in record-breaking bid to meet Paris Agreement promise
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-05/india-breaks-record-planting-66-million-trees-in-12-hours/8677302 (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-05/india-breaks-record-planting-66-million-trees-in-12-hours/8677302)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Paddy on November 07, 2017, 09:25:02 AM
A good summary of the state of play in India, where on the one hand CO2 emissions are rising with a high potential to increase further, and on the other hand renewables and a backlash against the air pollution caused by coal power and road traffic are on the rise:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/06/how-indias-battle-with-climate-change-could-determine-all-of-our-fates
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 18, 2019, 07:36:27 PM
As the Monsoon and Climate Shift, India Faces Worsening Floods
https://e360.yale.edu/features/as-the-monsoon-and-climate-shift-india-faces-worsening-floods
Quote
Extreme precipitation events are on the rise in India, driven by warming temperatures and changes in the monsoon. The resulting floods are being exacerbated by unplanned urban growth and environmental degradation, driving millions from their homes and causing widespread damage.
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: rboyd on December 16, 2019, 03:25:16 AM
Slowdown Blues: It's not ordinary but 'Great Slowdown', Indian economy headed towards ICU, says ex-CEA Arvind Subramanian

Looks like India is going into a significant recession, industrial production is already negative year over year. Y-o-y gdp growth of 4.5% is very slow for a developing nation like India.

Quote
Look at electricity generation growth, it's falling off the bottom, and it's never been like this ever. So this is the sense in which I would say this is not just any slowdown, this is the great slowdown that India is experiencing and we should look at it with all seriousness ...and the economy seems headed for the intensive care unit

The result is being seen with falling electricity demand, and therefore falling coal demand (helped by weather that delivered more rain for hydropower and beneficial wind trends).

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/slowdown-blues/slowdown-blues-not-ordinary-but-great-slowdown-indian-economy-headed-towards-icu-arvind-subramanian/story/392071.html (https://www.businesstoday.in/current/slowdown-blues/slowdown-blues-not-ordinary-but-great-slowdown-indian-economy-headed-towards-icu-arvind-subramanian/story/392071.html)
Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: Ken Feldman on December 17, 2019, 08:14:50 PM
Renewable energy is one sector of the Indian economy that continues to grow despite the economic slowdown.

https://thebulletin.org/2019/12/good-news-for-climate-change-india-gets-out-of-coal-and-into-renewable-energy/ (https://thebulletin.org/2019/12/good-news-for-climate-change-india-gets-out-of-coal-and-into-renewable-energy/)

Quote
Good news for climate change: India gets out of coal and into renewable energy

By Tim Buckley, December 16, 2019

In the often grim world of climate reporting, there is at least one upbeat story: India has been aggressively pivoting away from coal-fired power plants and towards electricity generated by solar, wind, and hydroelectric power. This means that the amount of carbon dioxide the country emits into the atmosphere should come down dramatically.

Quote
Consequently, with this massive reduction in the cost of renewables, India is able to shift away from the world’s dirtiest fossil fuel, and to much cleaner sources. It’s a stunning change, and one that could have profound implications on the world energy market. While western countries continue to baulk at reducing their reliance on fossil fuels, India is accelerating its plans to lock in a sustained, aggressive reduction in the carbon emissions intensity of its economy. In fact, India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, is targeting a fivefold expansion of the electricity generated from renewable energy sources by 2030—and this from a country that has already doubled its renewable energy in the past three years.

Quote
The rapid diversification of India’s electricity sector is creating an abundance of jobs and bringing an influx of new investment—needing to reach $500 billion over the coming decade if the targets are to be met—while reducing India’s emissions profile.

(https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/India-Power-Sources.jpg.webp)

Quote
The bidding for renewable projects became so frenetic that five leading Indian billionaires wrote a joint letter to the prime minister demanding limits to the injections of foreign capital. They said they could not compete with the flood of international investment that was driving electricity prices  down and crowding out India’s domestic giants. The government reluctantly complied, putting a cap of $1 billion per bid per participant. An astonishingly good problem to have! India had been suffering from acute electricity supply shortages for a decade and now it was being overwhelmed with new investment in ultra-low cost electricity supply.

The result? The government of India enabled $40 billion of new investment and a doubling of renewable energy capacity in just over three years, to 83 gigawatts by September 2019, with another 45 gigawatts of large scale hydro-electricity. (To give a sense of scale, the Hoover Dam generates 2 gigawatts.)

Buoyed by the success, India’s initial target of 175 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2022 was expanded to a target of 275 gigawatts by 2027. Then in September 2019, Prime Minister Modi proclaimed a new target of 450 gigawatts by 2030, or another $500 billion of investment in the coming decade.


Title: Re: But, but, but India...
Post by: rboyd on January 26, 2020, 02:57:19 AM
India installed 7.5 GW of solar power and 2.4 GW of wind energy in 2019

Seems lots of implementation issues led to delays of projects, pushing them into 2020 and reducing the 2019 installations below forecasts.

Quote
Unfortunately, total solar capacity additions fell short of projections due in large part to project delays across the industry and which are now likely to be commissioned in the first half of 2020.

These project delays were caused by a variety of issues, including land acquisition issues, execution delays, delays caused by secondary power off-takers in submitting approvals, policy uncertainty, and the withdrawal of open access benefits, re-tendering, etc.

While wind energy accounts for a larger share of India’s current renewable energy share, it nevertheless accounted for a smaller increase in 2019 capacity additions, installing 2.4GW, increasing total wind capacity by 10%.

Again, however, the majority of wind projects allocated in 2018 and scheduled to be commissioned in 2019 were delayed and are now set to be commissioned this year. These delays were primarily due to various land availability issues and lack of grid transmission availability.

https://www.evwind.es/2020/01/24/india-installed-7-5-gw-of-solar-power-and-2-4-gw-of-wind-energy-in-2019/73225