Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Consequences => Topic started by: Sigmetnow on August 21, 2015, 01:28:27 PM

Title: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 21, 2015, 01:28:27 PM
Western Wildfires: Experts from Australia Will Help U.S. Firefighters
More than 70 firefighting experts from Australia and New Zealand will travel to the United States to help tackle deadly wildfires across the West as local officials warned they could not keep up with the spread of the flames.
...
"We cannot keep up. We do not have the resources. It's nonstop," Okanogan County Chief Sheriff's Deputy Dave Rodriguez said. "It's all burning, and we don't have the resources available. We cannot get out and put boots on the ground for all these fires."

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/western-wildfires-experts-australia-will-help-u-s-firefighters-n413582 (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/western-wildfires-experts-australia-will-help-u-s-firefighters-n413582)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 21, 2015, 09:00:38 PM
@R5_Fire_News: **Corrected** California wildfire activity for August 21 (am) @forestservice @Cal_Fire @Cal_OES @Interior http://t.co/1igq2qGKU0 (http://t.co/1igq2qGKU0)
https://twitter.com/r5_fire_news/status/634772218828955648 (https://twitter.com/r5_fire_news/status/634772218828955648)
 
@ShastaTrinityNF: Thursday Evening Summary Report on fires burning in the @ShastaTrinityNF & @SixRiversNF. Steady progress continues. http://t.co/5Cxz8thXJO (http://t.co/5Cxz8thXJO)
https://twitter.com/shastatrinitynf/status/634579993889107972 (https://twitter.com/shastatrinitynf/status/634579993889107972)
 
Statement from Secretary Tom Vilsack on Ongoing Devastating Wildfire Season
WASHINGTON, Aug. 20, 2015 - U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack today made the following statement:

"This year, we are experiencing yet another devastating wildfire season, particularly in the drought-ravaged West. Climate change, drought, fuel buildup, insects and disease are increasing the severity of unprecedented wildfire in America's forests and rangelands, which impacts the safety of people, homes and communities. Development close to forests has also increased the threat to property, with more than 46 million homes in the United States, or about 40 percent of our nation's housing, potentially at risk from wildfire. USDA works closely with the Department of Interior and Secretary of the Interior Sally Jewell, along with other partners, to deploy the workforce, equipment, and interagency coordination necessary to respond safely and effectively to increasingly severe wildfire seasons. We are expending in excess of $150 million per week on fire suppression activities, and that will likely grow in the days and weeks ahead. Well over 26,000 firefighters and support personnel from federal, state and local agencies are deployed, along with 28 next generation and legacy air tankers, and additional aviation assets. We are now working with the U.S. Military and foreign partners, such as Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, to bring in additional resources.

http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/usdahome?contentid=2015/08/0236.xml (http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/usdahome?contentid=2015/08/0236.xml)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 23, 2015, 04:10:57 PM
This fire season has been the worst in [Washington] state’s recorded history....
This may be the first article I've seen with complaints that firefighters did nothing to protect his home.  Resources are stretched so thin, they cannot be everywhere they are needed.  For one woman, this was her third evacuation in five years....

Calmer weather gives wildfire crews a break
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/northwest/saturday-fire-update/ (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/northwest/saturday-fire-update/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 23, 2015, 05:45:58 PM
NASA:  Fires Ravaging Washington, Oregon, and California
http://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/goddard/fires-and-smoke-in-washington-oregon-and-california (http://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/goddard/fires-and-smoke-in-washington-oregon-and-california)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2015, 02:54:19 AM
Dozens of large wildfires are burning out of control around Lake Baikal in Siberia, which is the world's largest freshwater lake by volume and the deepest lake, at more than 5,300 feet deep.

Because of the composition of the soil in this part of the world, these fires are spewing unusually high amounts of carbon into the atmosphere, thereby contributing to global warming.
http://mashable.com/2015/08/24/massive-fires-are-surrounding-the-worlds-deepest-lake-in-siberia/ (http://mashable.com/2015/08/24/massive-fires-are-surrounding-the-worlds-deepest-lake-in-siberia/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: jdallen on August 25, 2015, 02:57:42 AM
From the arctic wildfire thread.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1232.msg61695.html#msg61695 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1232.msg61695.html#msg61695)

Locally, in Seattle over the weekend, the air quality was rated hazardous due to smoke blowing in from the Okanagan fires.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2015, 04:00:41 AM
Okanogan Complex: Washington State Wildfire Is Now Largest in State History, may burn until November
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/okanogan-complex-washington-wildfire-now-largest-state-history-n414916 (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/okanogan-complex-washington-wildfire-now-largest-state-history-n414916)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: solartim27 on August 25, 2015, 06:40:46 AM
I don't think I've seen smoke this thick before.  Much thicker than the Washington fires.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2015, 06:05:50 PM
Photographs.

Baikal on fire - 'it feels like doomsday'
http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/n0369-baikal-on-fire-it-feels-like-doomsday/ (http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/n0369-baikal-on-fire-it-feels-like-doomsday/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2015, 03:22:29 AM
@AirlineFlyer: It's crazy how many temporary flight restrictions are in place (red circles) because of fires in the Northwest [U.S.]. http://t.co/vyZNQWxk8k (http://t.co/vyZNQWxk8k)

https://twitter.com/airlineflyer/status/636276510526205953 (https://twitter.com/airlineflyer/status/636276510526205953)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 29, 2015, 06:30:36 PM
There Aren’t Enough Firefighters to Stop America’s West From Burning
An unprecedented 32,000 men and women are fighting blazes in what could be the most destructive fire season in history
In the Lower 48, fire season began in earnest the last week of July, when thunderstorms sent almost 2,300 lightning strikes into the drought-parched forests and foothills of Northern California. Two days later, smoke was rising from 250 new wildfires, Governor Jerry Brown called a state of emergency, and almost 10,000 firefighters from at least a dozen different fire agencies poured into Northern California.
...
Accounting for insurance costs, damages to businesses and infrastructure, and the flash floods and mudslides caused by denuded slopes, this year’s fires will likely cost taxpayers $25 billion—and that’s if a whole town or city doesn’t burn, which is a distinct possibility. If that happens, according to a report by the Natural Resources Defense Council, the costs could double or triple: One hundred forty million Americans live in fire-prone regions, and $237 billion in property sits in those high-risk areas.
...
“If you always do what you’ve always done, you’ll always get what you’ve always got,” says Tom Harbour, who, as the chief of the Forest Service’s fire department, sets the agenda for dozens of other federal, state, county, and municipal agencies and is effectively America’s wildland fire chief. “One hundred million people in the West can no longer expect to just pick up the phone, dial 911, and have a Hotshot come and save them.”
...
In 1995, the Forest Service spent 16 percent of its budget fighting fires. Today, it’s 52 percent and rising. The agency’s $5 billion budget hasn’t grown, just the portion of it spent on fire management, which includes timber operations to thin forests. “You’re no longer the Forest Service,” his boss, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, has told him. “You’re a fire department.”
...
Hotter temperatures make dense forests drier, and the fires more extreme. In California, a 1-degree temperature increase is associated with 35 percent more acres burned; in Montana, it’s twice the acreage. The conditions generate megafires, blazes far too intense for firefighters to safely stop. Arizona’s 2011 Wallow Fire was a megafire, and so were California’s 2013 Rim Fire, which burned 250,000 acres, and New Mexico’s 2011 Las Conchas. That biblical firestorm blackened 1.4 acres of mature forests every second for 14 hours straight.

Current fire policy, adopted in 2000, is actually sound, Harbour says. It allows incident commanders to make nuanced decisions about which fires, or even sections of fires, to fight and which fires to let burn; it encourages prescribed burning; and it allocates millions of dollars to thin dangerously dense forests around communities. But the policy is hard to practice, which is why, on the ground, it still looks like 1910 out there.

http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2015-wildfires-in-the-american-west/ (http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2015-wildfires-in-the-american-west/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 03, 2015, 06:20:56 PM
Wildfires have now burned a massive 8 million acres across the U.S.
As of this writing, the United States remains at wildfire preparedness level 5 — the highest level — where it has been since Aug. 13.

There are only six other years that have seen more than 8 million acres burned — 2012, 2011, 2007, 2006, 2005, and 2004 — based on National Interagency Fire Center records that date back to 1960. It is hard not to notice that all of these years came since the year 2000.
...
Considerably more acres are likely to burn this year, Jones noted, for several reasons. One is that many of the current large fires are at low containment levels. “A lot of those aren’t even at 50 percent containment, and some of those aren’t even estimating containment until the middle of October, and there’s a couple on here into November,” Jones noted.

There’s also the simple fact that there are four months left in 2015, and Southern California’s wildfire season can be at its worst in the fall, thanks to the notorious Santa Ana Winds.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/09/01/wildfires-have-now-burned-a-massive-8-million-acres-across-the-u-s-this-year/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/09/01/wildfires-have-now-burned-a-massive-8-million-acres-across-the-u-s-this-year/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Paddy on September 03, 2015, 06:41:02 PM
Wildfires have now burned a massive 8 million acres across the U.S.

Plus over 11 million acres (http://www.ciffc.ca/firewire/current.php) (4.5 million hectares) burned in Canada this year so far.  And a busy year for wildfires in Russia, too, although I can't find an estimate on the total there.  I wouldn't be surprised if this year set a new northern hemisphere record.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2015, 03:37:17 AM
@UniformStories: A Washington #Firefighter’s picture. Accurately describes the Pacific Northwest. (via hannahvstheworld/tumblr) http://t.co/ReC2iJd3ip (http://t.co/ReC2iJd3ip)

https://twitter.com/uniformstories/status/640951424885526533 (https://twitter.com/uniformstories/status/640951424885526533)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2015, 09:31:29 PM
The U.S. Forest Service is spending over half its budget fighting fires.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2015, 03:44:36 PM
When the name of your town is San Andreas, wildfire risk is not the first thing that comes to mind.

California Town of 2,700 Warned Ahead of Explosive Wildfire
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/california-wildfire-grows-more-50-000-acres-amid-heat-drought-n426121 (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/california-wildfire-grows-more-50-000-acres-amid-heat-drought-n426121)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 13, 2015, 04:30:34 PM
California Wildfires: Thousands Flee as Valley and Butte Blazes Force Evacuations
Firefighters in northern California were battling a fast-moving wildfire early Sunday that had razed buildings, forced thousands to flee, and hospitalized four firefighters with second-degree burns.

The so-called Valley Fire in Lake County, northwest of Sacramento, erupted early Saturday afternoon and rapidly chewed through brush and trees parched from several years of drought, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire).
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-wildfires-thousand-flee-firefighters-battle-blazes-n426531 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-wildfires-thousand-flee-firefighters-battle-blazes-n426531)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 14, 2015, 02:40:39 AM
Valley fire spread with 'mind-boggling' speed, experts say
Experts said the Valley fire moved faster than any other in California’s recent history. In fewer than 12 hours, it had scorched 40,000 acres.

“There aren’t very many fires in California’s history that have done that. I don’t know if there really is a precedent for it,” said Daniel Swain, climate scientist at Stanford University. “This fire sort of broke the rules even relative to this incredible season that’s already occurred.”
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-california-wildfire-spread-with-mind-boggling-speed-20150913-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-california-wildfire-spread-with-mind-boggling-speed-20150913-story.html)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 14, 2015, 10:09:56 PM
California wildfires continue to grow as flames consume small towns
Mark Ghilarducci, director of the Governor's Office of Emergency Services, said this summer's fires are the most volatile he has seen in 30 years of emergency response work. The main cause behind the fast-spreading fires is dry conditions from the four-year drought, he said.

"The bushes, the trees have absolutely no moisture in them, and the humidities are so low that we are seeing these 'fire starts' just erupt into conflagrations," Ghilarducci said, according to the Sacramento Bee.

California's central Sierra Nevada mountains are running a precipitation deficit of 71 inches since 2011, with other areas running deficits closer to 40 to 50 inches of precipitation.
http://mashable.com/2015/09/14/valley-butte-california-wildfires/ (http://mashable.com/2015/09/14/valley-butte-california-wildfires/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2015, 03:58:24 AM
More than 1,000 homes destroyed by 2 California fires. Temperatures returning to 90-100°F.
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/43381f0789ba4ce7947c557fe082a689/heat-spurs-fears-deadly-california-wildfires-could-revive (http://bigstory.ap.org/article/43381f0789ba4ce7947c557fe082a689/heat-spurs-fears-deadly-california-wildfires-could-revive)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 21, 2015, 02:48:32 PM
As Fires Grow, a New Landscape Appears in the West
Droughts are certainly not new, nor are large fires or even intense fires, Dr. Swetnam acknowledged. But the greater number of intense and large fires, and the repeated “burns on top of burns” like the ones that cleared the landscape around Cochiti canyon, are part of a pattern of worsening conditions exacerbated by the hotter droughts.

He has studied sections of many trees from the former forest near the canyon, which provided 300 years of fire history before the 2011 Las Conchas blaze, which ultimately burned 150,000 acres. “Obviously, the forest had survived many, many, surface fires,” he said. “But this fire — this fire — killed all of the trees in this area. “
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/22/science/as-fires-grow-a-new-landscape-appears-in-the-west.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/22/science/as-fires-grow-a-new-landscape-appears-in-the-west.html)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 26, 2015, 04:40:44 PM
U.S. nears wildfire record with more than 9 million acres burned
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/09/24/wildfires-acres-burned-9-million/72738140/ (http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/09/24/wildfires-acres-burned-9-million/72738140/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 27, 2015, 06:32:57 PM
In Vicious Fire Season, an Endurance Test for California Crews
The firefighters collapse in driveways and fields to steal a moment’s rest. They sleep in their engines, sprawled across fire hoses or slumped over steering wheels. After days of hacking dead brush and setting defensive fires across flaming mountains, their 24-hour rest breaks are cut short when a new fire rears up.

In this relentless wildfire season, when fire crews and resources are stretched thin from the foothills of the Rockies to Alaska’s wilderness, the latest enemy confronting firefighters is not flame. It is grinding exhaustion.

“Everybody’s beat,” said Paul Fleckenstein, a battalion chief who spent the past two weeks fighting a wildfire that killed four people and destroyed 1,958 homes and other buildings here in the parched mountains 90 miles north of San Francisco. “There’s nothing left to give.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/28/us/in-vicious-fire-season-an-endurance-test-for-california-crews.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/28/us/in-vicious-fire-season-an-endurance-test-for-california-crews.html)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 08, 2015, 03:52:56 PM
The linked article indicates that due to its extreme number of wildfires it is asking for foreign assistance for fire fighters; however, with the current El Nino certain to gain strength the situation may become worst for some months to come:


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/indonesia-asks-for-foreign-help-to-extinguish-forest-fires/2015/10/08/e64d7c50-6dbe-11e5-91eb-27ad15c2b723_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/indonesia-asks-for-foreign-help-to-extinguish-forest-fires/2015/10/08/e64d7c50-6dbe-11e5-91eb-27ad15c2b723_story.html)

Extract: "Indonesia has already deployed about 25,840 soldiers, police and fire personnel in six provinces to fight the fires, together with 25 aircraft used for water-dropping and cloud-seeding operations.

According to the Indonesian National Institute of Aeronautics and Space, 1,303 fires are currently burning across the country, mostly on Sumatra, Kalimantan and Sulawesi islands."

Edit - See also:

http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2015/1008/Why-is-Singapore-covered-in-smoke-and-what-can-be-done-about-it (http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2015/1008/Why-is-Singapore-covered-in-smoke-and-what-can-be-done-about-it)

Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: jai mitchell on October 08, 2015, 09:43:25 PM
In the last El Nino of this magnitude, the fires during the winter of 97-98 provided enough carbon into the atmosphere to equal up to 13-40%% of the mean Anthropogenic CO2 emissions for that year.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v420/n6911/full/nature01131.html (http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v420/n6911/full/nature01131.html)

Abstract:

Tropical peatlands are one of the largest near-surface reserves of terrestrial organic carbon, and hence their stability has important implications for climate change1, 2, 3. In their natural state, lowland tropical peatlands support a luxuriant growth of peat swamp forest overlying peat deposits up to 20 metres thick4, 5. Persistent environmental change—in particular, drainage and forest clearing—threatens their stability2, and makes them susceptible to fire6. This was demonstrated by the occurrence of widespread fires throughout the forested peatlands of Indonesia7, 8, 9, 10 during the 1997 El Niño event. Here, using satellite images of a 2.5 million hectare study area in Central Kalimantan, Borneo, from before and after the 1997 fires, we calculate that 32% (0.79 Mha) of the area had burned, of which peatland accounted for 91.5% (0.73 Mha). Using ground measurements of the burn depth of peat, we estimate that 0.19–0.23 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon were released to the atmosphere through peat combustion, with a further 0.05 Gt released from burning of the overlying vegetation. Extrapolating these estimates to Indonesia as a whole, we estimate that between 0.81 and 2.57 Gt of carbon were released to the atmosphere in 1997 as a result of burning peat and vegetation in Indonesia. This is equivalent to 13–40% of the mean annual global carbon emissions from fossil fuels, and contributed greatly to the largest annual increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration detected since records began in 1957 (ref. 1).

Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 09, 2015, 12:53:45 PM
Smoke and fire for the sake of palm oil.

Indonesia urged to declare national disaster as haze worsens
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/10/08/indonesia-urged-to-hose-down-smoke-and-mirrors-policies/ (http://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/10/08/indonesia-urged-to-hose-down-smoke-and-mirrors-policies/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: jdallen on October 12, 2015, 11:06:53 PM
Smoke and fire for the sake of palm oil.

Indonesia urged to declare national disaster as haze worsens
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/10/08/indonesia-urged-to-hose-down-smoke-and-mirrors-policies/ (http://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/10/08/indonesia-urged-to-hose-down-smoke-and-mirrors-policies/)
It is absolutely heartbreaking, and similarly unnecessary.  The development and exploitation of those forests across Indonesia have given utterly no benefit to the people who live there.  And now, they suffer the consequences of the greed of the people ruining them.

So sad.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 23, 2015, 01:18:13 PM
Alaskan Forest Fires Could Make Climate Change Much Worse
What’s happening in Indonesian peatlands and Alaskan boreal forests could be happening all over the world. A study published this summer in Nature Communications concluded that fire weather seasons have, on average, grown 18.7 percent longer since 1979, and that the global burnable area affected by fire season has doubled. Ecosystems that shouldn’t burn at all, such as the temperate rainforests of Washington State and Oregon, are starting to combust. Climate change is setting the world on fire, and that’s creating a huge new source of greenhouse gas emissions—amplifying global warming, in a vicious feedback loop.
http://gizmodo.com/alaskan-forest-fires-could-make-climate-change-much-wor-1737629067 (http://gizmodo.com/alaskan-forest-fires-could-make-climate-change-much-wor-1737629067)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: jdallen on October 23, 2015, 05:41:26 PM
There is no relief in sight.  The world is burning.

http://robertscribbler.com/2015/10/21/too-furious-for-human-intervention-climate-feedbacks-spur-out-of-control-wildfires-from-indonesia-to-brazil/ (http://robertscribbler.com/2015/10/21/too-furious-for-human-intervention-climate-feedbacks-spur-out-of-control-wildfires-from-indonesia-to-brazil/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: jai mitchell on October 23, 2015, 05:46:09 PM
While tropical and boreal peat fires are moving sequestered carbon into the atmosphere and, in the case of boreal peat, may significantly increase the emissions rates from the decomposition of permafrost carbon, the carbon released from forests will be offset somewhat by new growth.

However, the Brazil and Indonesia fires appear to be spurred by agriculture transformations into (oil palm?) cultivated lands which will significantly reduce those regions' new growth in terms of wood mass per hectare going forward.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 27, 2015, 08:24:33 PM
Indonesia's fires labelled a 'crime against humanity' as 500,000 suffer
Haze has caused havoc, with schools in neighbouring Singapore and Malaysia shut down, flights grounded and events cancelled.
“Large parts of Indonesia have now been in a state of emergency for over a month. Why has there not been a nationally declared total fire ban advertised 24/7 on all television channels?” asked Dr. Eric Meijaard, an Indonesia-based associate professor at the University of Queensland, in a recent editorial in the Jakarta Globe.

“Why has there not been a clear message: you burn — you go to jail?”
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/26/indonesias-fires-crime-against-humanity-hundreds-of-thousands-suffer (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/26/indonesias-fires-crime-against-humanity-hundreds-of-thousands-suffer)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: pikaia on October 30, 2015, 10:30:04 AM
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/30/indonesia-fires-disaster-21st-century-world-media (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/30/indonesia-fires-disaster-21st-century-world-media)

"it is currently producing more carbon dioxide than the US economy. "

"After the last great conflagration, in 1997, there was a missing cohort in Indonesia of 15,000 children under the age of three, attributed to air pollution. This, it seems, is worse. The surgical masks being distributed across the nation will do almost nothing to protect those living in a sunless smog. Members of parliament in Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) have had to wear face masks during debates."
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 07, 2015, 04:43:03 AM
Climate change fuels Australia bushfire threat
The bushfire season has started a month early in Australia, with record-breaking heat waves recorded across the continent in October contributing to several large fires destroying properties.
http://www.dw.com/en/climate-change-fuels-australia-bushfire-threat/a-18831755 (http://www.dw.com/en/climate-change-fuels-australia-bushfire-threat/a-18831755)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: jdallen on November 30, 2015, 07:15:50 PM
http://robertscribbler.com/2015/11/30/brazils-great-amazon-rainforest-burns-as-parched-megacities-fall-under-existential-threat/ (http://robertscribbler.com/2015/11/30/brazils-great-amazon-rainforest-burns-as-parched-megacities-fall-under-existential-threat/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: oren on November 30, 2015, 08:26:18 PM
http://robertscribbler.com/2015/11/30/brazils-great-amazon-rainforest-burns-as-parched-megacities-fall-under-existential-threat/ (http://robertscribbler.com/2015/11/30/brazils-great-amazon-rainforest-burns-as-parched-megacities-fall-under-existential-threat/)

Interesting read. And disturbing.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 10, 2015, 08:03:14 PM
We may be witnessing the worst U.S. wildfire season in recorded history
Alaska accounts for more than half of this year’s total, with 770 wildfires that so far have torched 5.1 million acres. That’s almost five times the average of typical years there.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/in-a-warming-nation-possibly-the-worst-year-for-acres-burned-by-fire/2015/12/09/80de418c-9dc1-11e5-8728-1af6af208198_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/in-a-warming-nation-possibly-the-worst-year-for-acres-burned-by-fire/2015/12/09/80de418c-9dc1-11e5-8728-1af6af208198_story.html)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 07, 2016, 04:13:30 PM
We may be witnessing the worst U.S. wildfire season in recorded history
Alaska accounts for more than half of this year’s total, with 770 wildfires that so far have torched 5.1 million acres. That’s almost five times the average of typical years there.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/in-a-warming-nation-possibly-the-worst-year-for-acres-burned-by-fire/2015/12/09/80de418c-9dc1-11e5-8728-1af6af208198_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/in-a-warming-nation-possibly-the-worst-year-for-acres-burned-by-fire/2015/12/09/80de418c-9dc1-11e5-8728-1af6af208198_story.html)

It is not comforting to think that the impacts of wildfires are not included in AR5 climate models, when they are clearly increasing worldwide, including in the USA as indicated in the linked article:


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/01/06/2015-wildfire-season-just-set-an-amazing-and-troubling-new-record/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/01/06/2015-wildfire-season-just-set-an-amazing-and-troubling-new-record/)

Extract: "U.S. wildfires just set an amazing and troubling new record. 
Last year’s wildfire season set a record with more than 10 million acres burned. That’s more land than Maryland, the District and Delaware combined.
More than half the total was the result of mega-fires in Alaska, where dryness due to historically low mountain snowpack and a freak lightning storm created perfect conditions for a huge blaze. The nation’s overall toll was about 4 million acres more than the yearly average, scorching a record set in 2006."
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: jdallen on January 11, 2016, 12:42:19 AM
Site for Australian wildfires currently active.

http://www.firenorth.org.au/nafi3/ (http://www.firenorth.org.au/nafi3/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: jdallen on January 11, 2016, 12:52:04 AM
More on southern hemisphere wildfires.  Australia and eastern Indonesia.

http://sentinel.ga.gov.au/#/main (http://sentinel.ga.gov.au/#/main)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 18, 2016, 06:29:14 PM
The linked (open access) reference projects a limited increase in wildfires under RCP 4.5, but a more significant increase in wildfires under RCP 8.5, by 2100:

Knorr, W., Jiang, L., and Arneth, A.: Climate, CO2 and human population impacts on global wildfire emissions, Biogeosciences, 13, 267-282, doi:10.5194/bg-13-267-2016, 2016.

http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/267/2016/bg-13-267-2016.html (http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/267/2016/bg-13-267-2016.html)

Abstract. Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilisation of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation.
Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ–GUESS–SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation–wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations use Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models. These were combined with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to assess the sensitivity of emissions to the effect of climate, CO2 and humans. In addition, two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model were applied. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and fast urbanisation, or continue to decline for high population growth and slow urbanisation. Only for high future climate change (RCP8.5), wildfire emissions start to rise again after ca. 2020 but are unlikely to reach the levels of 1900 by the end of the 21st century. We find that climate warming will generally increase the risk of fire, but that this is only one of several equally important factors driving future levels of wildfire emissions, which include population change, CO2 fertilisation causing woody thickening, increased productivity and fuel load and faster litter turnover in a warmer climate.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 18, 2016, 09:28:55 AM
Wildfires are forecast for tomorrow in the Central USA, due to high temperatures and winds in February.  I note that paleo-data indicates that during recent past interglacial periods such wildfires were common throughout the Central USA:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/18/us/warm-weather-february/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/18/us/warm-weather-february/index.html)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sleepy on February 18, 2016, 11:05:11 AM
So, you in the US obviously don't want to live near your coastlines in the future, in places like New York or Florida. California will dry out and drown at the same time, and you don't want to live in the mid west due to drought, fires and tornadoes. Hmm.
Scandinavia might be one of the better places to live in the future, weatherwise that is, at least for a while.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: LRC1962 on February 18, 2016, 07:50:11 PM
Canada (yah the 51st state north of the U.S. border land of snow and ice) has its good spots. Other then Vancouver which is going to get drowned almost all other heavily populated places are inland and for most places you do not have to dig too far down before you hit rock (Canadian Shield). You should see them dig basements for towers in Toronto.
As for wildfires. Until man can figure out some way to desalinate enough water to water all the land surface, wildfires are going to get worse and worse until everything turns to desert. Why? Man controlling water supplies and evaporation.
Both those problems (from the perspective of general land hydrology) are going to compound everything weather changes will do to the land. End result. Everything will dry up. Case in point. The Sahara. 4,000 years ago it fed empires. Now because the destruction that man was partly responsible for, desert. And to point out that piece of land greatly impacts weather systems in Europe, the development of hurricanes, even what happens in the Amazon.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 19, 2016, 08:16:27 PM
Wildfires are forecast for tomorrow in the Central USA, due to high temperatures and winds in February.  I note that paleo-data indicates that during recent past interglacial periods such wildfires were common throughout the Central USA:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/18/us/warm-weather-february/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/18/us/warm-weather-february/index.html)

Not only did the forecasts of wildfire come true, but our new climate change conditions generated fire tornadoes across thousands of acres in Missouri:

http://abcnews.go.com/US/high-winds-spark-fire-tornadoes-missouri/story?id=37056702 (http://abcnews.go.com/US/high-winds-spark-fire-tornadoes-missouri/story?id=37056702)

Extract: "High winds caused fires to spread across thousands of acres in Missouri on Thursday, generating whirling fire tornadoes and wreaking havoc on thousands of acres of land.
“In my 39-year career, I have never seen anything like that before,” Dean Cull, Deputy Chief of the Southern Platte Fire Protection District told ABC News today."
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 07, 2016, 01:45:48 AM
Oklahoma is suffering from a major outbreak of grass fires.
Fires from Tuesday are still burning across much of our state. Overnight winds shifted from south/southwest to north/northwest changing the direction of the fires.

Fires will continue to spread rapidly, with low humidity and winds gusting 40-45 mph.
http://m.koco.com/weather/fire-danger-still-very-high-wednesday/38889898 (http://m.koco.com/weather/fire-danger-still-very-high-wednesday/38889898)


UPDATE: Power lines blamed for massive Oklahoma wildfire
Oklahoma forestry officials say a large wildfire that has burned 86 square miles of range land was caused by power lines.

Oklahoma Forestry Services Director George Geissler says arcing power lines are to blame for the blaze in northwest Oklahoma, located about 170 miles northwest of Oklahoma City.

That area of Oklahoma saw wind gusts of 50 mph on Tuesday, which caused the power lines to arc into the dry grass, sparking the fire. Forestry spokeswoman Hannah Anderson says the blaze has not been contained at all, but that no new evacuation orders have been issued.
http://www.kake.com/home/headlines/Grassfires-breaking-out-in-Kansas-Oklahoma--374671991.html (http://www.kake.com/home/headlines/Grassfires-breaking-out-in-Kansas-Oklahoma--374671991.html)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Cate on April 08, 2016, 01:41:12 PM
Mild winter, lower snowpack, early thaw, and now a forecast for warm dry spring weather: Environment Canada warns that this could be the set-up for another bad wildfire season across the True North. 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/nwt-fire-season-weather-1.3522382 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/nwt-fire-season-weather-1.3522382)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 09, 2016, 10:24:51 PM
U.S. Forest Service:  Wildfires burn twice as many acres each year than they did 40 years ago. https://twitter.com/forestservice/status/718878782418001920
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: jdallen on April 21, 2016, 07:26:35 AM
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/04/20/canadian-fire-season-starts-far-too-early-as-fort-st-john-residents-are-forced-to-flee-the-flames/
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: jdallen on April 21, 2016, 07:28:44 AM
And...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-wildfires-rocky-view-fire-ban-1.3543426 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-wildfires-rocky-view-fire-ban-1.3543426)

It's going to be just one HELLUVA season, I can tell right now.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 03, 2016, 02:10:11 AM
Wildfire flames whip dangerously close to homes in Alberta
A state of emergency was declared near Fort McMurray in Alberta, Canada, May 1 as a wildfire engulfed parts of the area. According to reports, hundreds of people were forced to evacuate their homes. (Facebook/Brandon Serroul)

At least three wildfires are burning around an Alberta, Canada, town, and video shows the flames approaching businesses, homes and cars — way too close for comfort.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/05/02/wildfire-flames-whip-dangerously-close-to-homes-in-alberta-video/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/05/02/wildfire-flames-whip-dangerously-close-to-homes-in-alberta-video/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: baileyrorys on May 03, 2016, 08:58:12 PM
Fire season in Washington, Oregon, Idaho area was pretty bad last year. I certainly hope we can get a break this year.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 04, 2016, 01:50:29 AM
Alberta, Canada:
Fire jumps the highway, burns homes.  City of Fort McMurray is evacuating.

#CBC reporters confirm homes are now burning in Fort McMurray in Beacon Hill and in the Centenial Trailer Park. #ymm
https://twitter.com/cbccalgary/status/727611087106002944

From her car fleeing the fire. @cbcian speaks to Fort McMurray resident. #ymmfire #ymm
https://twitter.com/patmorrell_cbc/status/727642641043578880

Startling video of the #ymmfire RT @jstuffcocrimlaw: My harrowing drive evacuating #ymm praying for my friends
https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/727638901402275842

Breaking: #ymmfire "beyond resources". Too dangerous to put men & aircraft between fire and #ymm @ctvedmonton #yeg
https://twitter.com/jsjamato/status/727583068760870913
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: jdallen on May 04, 2016, 03:07:03 AM
Wildfire flames whip dangerously close to homes in Alberta
A state of emergency was declared near Fort McMurray in Alberta, Canada, May 1 as a wildfire engulfed parts of the area. According to reports, hundreds of people were forced to evacuate their homes. (Facebook/Brandon Serroul)

At least three wildfires are burning around an Alberta, Canada, town, and video shows the flames approaching businesses, homes and cars — way too close for comfort.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/05/02/wildfire-flames-whip-dangerously-close-to-homes-in-alberta-video/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/05/02/wildfire-flames-whip-dangerously-close-to-homes-in-alberta-video/)
The have ordered the evacuation of the entire city, 61,000 people.  Descriptions sound like something out of the apocalypse.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: jdallen on May 04, 2016, 03:08:30 AM
And while we are at it...

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/05/03/the-fires-of-climate-change-are-burning-the-himalayas/

We are screwed this year, well and truly.

Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 04, 2016, 01:29:17 PM
Alberta, Canada:  Fort McMurray Wildfire: 60,000 Evacuated Over Out-of-Control Blaze
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-60-000-evacuated-over-out-control-blaze-n567371 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-60-000-evacuated-over-out-control-blaze-n567371)

Ryan Maue: Temps pushed 90°F in northern Alberta on Tuesday, almost to 60ºN latitude
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/727710397910921216 (https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/727710397910921216)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 04, 2016, 05:04:33 PM
30,000 Fort McMurray residents forced to flee north as southern routes become impassable.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: DrTskoul on May 04, 2016, 05:49:01 PM
More like 80,000 now.  Also consider this: 87F max temperature at Fort Mc. 52F max New Jersey
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: DrTskoul on May 04, 2016, 05:54:49 PM
Pretty tough situation

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fthecanadianpress-a.akamaihd.net%2Fgraphics%2F2016%2Fstatic%2Fcp-alta-fort-mcmurray-fire.jpg&hash=1707c924db6fde42fe42eea03d16a39e)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 04, 2016, 05:55:23 PM
DrTskoul: note that Shared Humanity indicated 30,000 fled north.  The other 50,000 went south.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: DrTskoul on May 04, 2016, 06:01:59 PM
DrTskoul: note that Shared Humanity indicated 30,000 fled north.  The other 50,000 went south.

Sth to be said about reading comprehension!! D'OH  :o

Apologies...
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: ghoti on May 04, 2016, 06:59:13 PM
Meanwhile the words "climate change" or "global warming" have been noticeably absent from all media reports of either the record high temperatures Alberta has been experiencing this spring or of the wildfire.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 04, 2016, 07:32:09 PM
Actually ...
I've noticed several.  Here's one (http://www.nationalobserver.com/2016/05/04/news/fort-mcmurray-fires-related-global-climate-crisis-says-elizabeth-may) Google reference:
Fort McMurray fires related to the global climate crisis, says Elizabeth ...
www.nationalobserver.com/.../fort-mcmurray-fires-related-global-climat (http://www.nationalobserver.com/.../fort-mcmurray-fires-related-global-climat)...
1 hour ago - The devastating destruction caused by wildfires in Fort McMurray is a sign of worse things to come if the planet doesn't scale back its ...

My hedge is that I'm not going to say if the National Observer is "mainstream media" or not, and it does use "climate crisis" and not "climate change".
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: mati on May 04, 2016, 11:26:48 PM
my niece had to evacuate, made it south of the city now waiting for a bus to edmonton... very tense evening last night for me for sure.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: DrTskoul on May 05, 2016, 12:56:59 AM
my niece had to evacuate, made it south of the city now waiting for a bus to edmonton... very tense evening last night for me for sure.

Sorry to hear. I hope her house does not suffer any damagevent and that she stays safe.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: ghoti on May 05, 2016, 03:04:33 AM
Yes Ms May was asked about climate change and the wildfires and her completely mundane factual response caused a huge uproar which became the subject of much main stream reporting. Much of it about whether it is appropriate to acknowledge climate change "at this time" or whether it is politicizing the tragedy.

For example:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/elizabeth-may-fort-mcmurray-climate-change-1.3566126 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/elizabeth-may-fort-mcmurray-climate-change-1.3566126)

Acknowledging scientific facts is not politicizing but trying to deny them is.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 05, 2016, 07:55:32 PM
The dash-cam video at the top of this article is nightmarish.

What Canada’s wildfire disaster looks like from Earth and space
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/05/05/what-canadas-wildfire-disaster-looks-like-from-earth-and-space/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/05/05/what-canadas-wildfire-disaster-looks-like-from-earth-and-space/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on May 05, 2016, 08:07:16 PM

"At least 640,000 barrels per day of crude output is offline, according to Reuters calculations, roughly 16 percent of Canada's crude production. The outage is expected to climb as major players in the region cut production. [O/R]"

Well, I didn't expect the feedback loop of climate change to reduced carbon production to be quite so direct. Anybody else see the Irony in this?
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 05, 2016, 08:14:17 PM
I agree:  this video shows how frightening it must have been (probably Tuesday evening/night - edit: 2 pm Tuesday afternoon driving through the suburb that lost 70% of the houses.).

The dash-cam video at the top of this article is nightmarish.

What Canada’s wildfire disaster looks like from Earth and space
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/05/05/what-canadas-wildfire-disaster-looks-like-from-earth-and-space/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/05/05/what-canadas-wildfire-disaster-looks-like-from-earth-and-space/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 05, 2016, 08:44:12 PM
The Fort McMurray Disaster: Getting Beyond “Is It Climate Change?”
By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters, May 5
We don’t need attribution studies to realize that our struggling firefighting resources must be brought up to speed to match the evolving picture of longer fire seasons and more dangerous fires. A U.S. Forest Service report issued last summer sounded the alarm: “...within a decade, the agency will spend more than two-thirds of its budget to battle ever-increasing fires, while mission-critical programs that can help prevent fires in the first place such as forest restoration and watershed and landscape management will continue to suffer. Meanwhile...these catastrophic blazes are projected to burn twice as many acres by 2050.” It is no small irony that Wednesday, May 4, was International Firefighters Day.

In their deadline coverage of the Fort McMurray event, journalists such as Andrew Freedman (Mashable) have done a laudable job pointing out the complex but real connections between climate change and wildfire. We have much more to learn about exactly why and how the atmosphere is moving in directions that favor devastating fire--but for now, perhaps it’s enough simply to know that the dice are being loaded. Together with the many other threats posed by climate change, this should be more than enough motivation to get serious about emission cuts. The vast and profound effects of human-produced greenhouse gases--from intensified downpours and drought impacts to ocean acidification and sea-level rise--call for a sustained commitment to change that transcends any single disaster, even one as compelling as the nightmare unfolding in Fort McMurray.
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/the-fort-mcmurray-disaster-getting-beyond-is-it-climate-change (https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/the-fort-mcmurray-disaster-getting-beyond-is-it-climate-change)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: GeoffBeacon on May 05, 2016, 09:21:07 PM
INCREASED FOREST FIRES NOT INCLUDED IN CLIMATE MODELS

I expect many here will know this but I recently received a reply from UK Department of Energy and Climate Change which included
 
the models used vary in what they include, and some feedbacks are absent as the understanding and modelling of these is not yet advanced enough to include. From those you raise, this applies to melting permafrost emissions, forest fires and wetlands decomposition.
http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/carbon-budgets-a-straightforward-answer-from-decc (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/carbon-budgets-a-straightforward-answer-from-decc)

P.S. I hope the rain comes soon in Alberta.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Csnavywx on May 06, 2016, 03:39:38 AM
So, is Fort McMurray the first city lost to climate change?
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: sidd on May 06, 2016, 06:43:33 AM
climate change ?  that might be Mohenjo Daro/Harappa

anthro climate change ? the same perhaps, Ruddiman is right.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: DoomInTheUK on May 06, 2016, 01:57:42 PM
I would expect that a wildfire heading towards the open pit that is a the tar sands oil production of Suncor would concentrate their minds.  :o
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 06, 2016, 09:56:00 PM
How big is the Fort McMurray wildfire? How #ymm fire's size compares to London, NYC & Toronto

http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/06/world/canada-fire-city-comparison/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/06/world/canada-fire-city-comparison/index.html)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 07, 2016, 02:48:26 AM
CBC Nova Scotia: Wow. #FortMcMurray, before and after [GIF] via @bahadorz #ymmfire #ymm #fortmacfire #fortmac
https://twitter.com/cbcns/status/728645448181919744
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: LRC1962 on May 07, 2016, 04:29:16 AM

P.S. I hope the rain comes soon in Alberta.
Alberta water comes from snow melt. It is on the dry side of the mountains. The only time it gets a lot of rain is when a blocking front forces a wet system back into the mountains.
 

"At least 640,000 barrels per day of crude output is offline, according to Reuters calculations, roughly 16 percent of Canada's crude production. The outage is expected to climb as major players in the region cut production. [O/R]"

Well, I didn't expect the feedback loop of climate change to reduced carbon production to be quite so direct. Anybody else see the Irony in this?
That is provided that the fire does not get deep into the ground and start burning the tar sands, then things could get much worse on the GHG front as far as that area is concerned.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 07, 2016, 03:03:03 PM
Largest in the world, this new Boeing 747 Global Supertanker can fly anywhere on the planet with one fuel stop, allowing it to fight off-shore fires as well as fires in remote areas.  It can carry two different fire suppressants at once, and add air to the mix, so a drop causes less damage.

Video:
http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/video/firefighting-airplane-global-supertanker-38911479 (http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/video/firefighting-airplane-global-supertanker-38911479)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 07, 2016, 04:18:04 PM
That is provided that the fire does not get deep into the ground and start burning the tar sands, then things could get much worse on the GHG front as far as that area is concerned.
Per the linked Scribbler article: "Shift in the Wind May Push Gargantuan Fort McMurray Fire Toward Tar Sands Facilities on Saturday"

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/05/06/shift-in-the-wind-may-push-gargantuan-fort-mcmurray-fire-toward-tar-sands-facilities-on-saturday/
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: DrTskoul on May 07, 2016, 04:29:30 PM

P.S. I hope the rain comes soon in Alberta.

Most oil sands are at least 40 feet deep...
Alberta water comes from snow melt. It is on the dry side of the mountains. The only time it gets a lot of rain is when a blocking front forces a wet system back into the mountains.
 

"At least 640,000 barrels per day of crude output is offline, according to Reuters calculations, roughly 16 percent of Canada's crude production. The outage is expected to climb as major players in the region cut production. [O/R]"

Well, I didn't expect the feedback loop of climate change to reduced carbon production to be quite so direct. Anybody else see the Irony in this?
That is provided that the fire does not get deep into the ground and start burning the tar sands, then things could get much worse on the GHG front as far as that area is concerned.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 08, 2016, 03:17:01 PM
A GIF worth 1,000 words:
How the ForMacFire spread, up to and including [Saturday]:
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/729077106202681345 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/729077106202681345)


Edit:
Monster Canada Wildfire Continues to Grow, Could Reach Saskatchewan
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/monster-canada-wildfire-continues-grow-people-flee-safety-n570046 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/monster-canada-wildfire-continues-grow-people-flee-safety-n570046)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 08, 2016, 04:06:46 PM
Emergency Evacuation notice issed last night for northern Saskatchewan.

@AlertOntario:  THE FIRE IS IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN PLEASE BEGIN PREPARING FOR EVACUATION. PACK ESSENTIALS
https://twitter.com/alertontario/status/729077180135821312

@AlertOntario:  ALERT fire is in Northern SASK please prepare to evacuate, the fire has doubled in size in just 24 hours and is expected to double
https://twitter.com/alertontario/status/729080915327102976

@AlertOntario:  Fires are in the North Of Saskatchewan for your safety please start leaving the North ASAP. Pack all essentials now
https://twitter.com/alertontario/status/729090723765719041
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 08, 2016, 06:59:51 PM
 :'(

@Cmdr_Hadfield:  A very useful up-to-the-minute map of Fort McMurray, using space-based images http://www.google.org/crisismap/2016-fort-mcmurray-fire. (http://www.google.org/crisismap/2016-fort-mcmurray-fire.)  Thanks @google
https://twitter.com/cmdr_hadfield/status/729333989794848768 (https://twitter.com/cmdr_hadfield/status/729333989794848768)
http://www.google.org/crisismap/2016-fort-mcmurray-fire (http://www.google.org/crisismap/2016-fort-mcmurray-fire)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: LRC1962 on May 08, 2016, 07:42:12 PM
For those who like good info resources, this is a great site for Canada. http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/maps/fm3?type=fwih (http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/maps/fm3?type=fwih)
Use the different links on the upper left side to see what the codings mean.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: mati on May 08, 2016, 09:08:24 PM
compilation map showing structures that were burnt in fort mc

https://medium.com/@mcmurraymap/damage-assessment-may-5th-2016-eb91d5efe45#.o8st14nns
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: wili on May 08, 2016, 09:39:53 PM
http://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-expected-to-stretch-more-than-2000-square-kilometres-sunday (http://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-expected-to-stretch-more-than-2000-square-kilometres-sunday)

Good News: The wildfire hasn't grown as much as feared
“We expect to hold the fire,” said Chad Morison with Alberta Wildfire, estimating the size at just 161,000 hectares [~= 620 sq miles ] at noon Sunday, much smaller than previously expected. On Saturday, fire officials said they expected it to hit 200,000 hectares by midnight.

The fire did not reach the closest Suncor and Syncrude oilsands sites, and the Nexen Long Lake facility appears to have sustained minimal damage. Inside the city, fire crews are still putting out hotspots. They were able to protect most of the city’s critical infrastructure, including its hospital and water treatment facility.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 09, 2016, 12:37:33 PM
Photos from Astronaut Tim Peake aboard the  International Space Station :  Smoke from #Alberta fires now covering vast areas of North America across to Atlantic coast. #ymmfire
https://twitter.com/astro_timpeake/status/729375208654688257
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Archimid on May 09, 2016, 09:21:48 PM
Photos from Astronaut Tim Peake aboard the  International Space Station :  Smoke from #Alberta fires now covering vast areas of North America across to Atlantic coast. #ymmfire
https://twitter.com/astro_timpeake/status/729375208654688257

I imagine that should generate some global cooling. I would think that is a lot of solar radiation being blocked. The problem is when the particles fall on snow or ice, raising it's albedo, resulting in increased  interaction of  solar radiation with the surface. I wonder which one is greater.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on May 09, 2016, 10:29:02 PM
Notes on black carbon as a short lived GHG.

http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/shortlived/shortlived.htm (http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/shortlived/shortlived.htm)

Also if you want ot read more:

http://www.arb.ca.gov/research/single-project.php?row_id=65207 (http://www.arb.ca.gov/research/single-project.php?row_id=65207)


"Black carbon is a component of fine particulate matter, which has been identified as a leading environmental risk factor for premature death. It is produced from the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass burning, particularly from older diesel engines and forest fires. Black carbon warms the atmosphere by absorbing solar radiation, influences cloud formation, and darkens the surface of snow and ice, which accelerates heat absorption and melting. Diesel particulate matter emissions are a major source of black carbon and are also toxic air contaminants that have been regulated and controlled in California for several decades in order to protect public health"
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: LRC1962 on May 10, 2016, 12:04:03 AM
Black carbon may live as a GHG short time. The thing is when it lands it can live a long time. See Dark Snow.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: LRC1962 on May 11, 2016, 04:10:50 PM
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-insurance-rates-1.3573895 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-insurance-rates-1.3573895)
Insurance companies forced to fork over billions of dollars to cover damages from the Fort McMurray wildfire will remain financially sound despite their enormous losses, but some homeowners will likely face spikes in their premiums.

"It's quite possible we could see some rate increases, probably regionally," said Jason Mercer, an analyst at Moody's Canada Inc. "Can't imagine it will be wholesale across-the-board rate increases."
Mercer said anyone who lives near a dry forest or somewhere particularly vulnerable to wildfire risks could see their rates spike.
Governments may waffle about things that need to be done to bring about CC, the insurance industry may become the biggest reason CO2 levels will be reigned in. Increasing costs will force about changes that can help drop costs.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: crandles on May 11, 2016, 05:01:36 PM
Governments may waffle about things that need to be done to bring about CC, the insurance industry may become the biggest reason CO2 levels will be reigned in. Increasing costs will force about changes that can help drop costs.

Increasing insurance rates might have an effect on stopping too much building near high fire risk/flood risks... (or perhaps it is more building get done then people find themselves caught out unable to afford insurance or sell property then building rates perhaps begin to slow)

but how does insurance force limits in CO2 emissions? Higher insurance rates if policyholders flies more than once a year or drives more than 30000 km or something like that? Why? Emissions of any one insurance company's policy holders will be swamped by other people who are not policyholders and any ins co that did that would be undercut by others. Not insure ff industry? That is just cutting out a market opportunity for the insurance cos. So can't see anything like that happening.

Insurance companies like uncorrelated risk which they can mitigate through aggregation and dislike correlated risks like CC. Insurance companies may have to have much higher rates for correlated risk like CC if big events become a lot more frequent or stop insuring against CC related event. Higher rates or withdrawal of cover leaves policyholders uninsured and unhappy and possibly feeling more action on CC is needed but I don't see that that causes insurance to somehow mandate cuts in emissions. Maybe eventual indirect effect of changing opinion on need for more CC action and through that political pressure for more action but this seems a bit indirect.

Perhaps I am missing something?
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 11, 2016, 05:05:55 PM
The linked Scribbler article is entitled: "Massive Wildfires Erupt in Northeast China as Lake Baikal Blazes Ignite"

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/05/10/massive-wildfires-erupt-in-northeast-china-as-lake-baikal-blazes-ignite/

Extract: "An extreme heatwave and drought in East Asia is now sparking extraordinarily large wildfires in mostly unsettled regions of Northeast China near the Russian border."
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 13, 2016, 01:14:27 AM
Canada wildfire - what are the environmental impacts?
In addition to the estimated $9bn damage to Fort McMurray, ‘the beast’ will affect forests, carbon emissions, air and water pollution and waste.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/11/canada-wildfire-environmental-impacts-fort-mcmurray (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/11/canada-wildfire-environmental-impacts-fort-mcmurray)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 14, 2016, 04:59:51 PM
The linked article discusses how the Fort McMurray wildfire will result in many more months of carbon emissions from the associated smoldering peat:

http://www.takepart.com/feature/2016/05/13/fort-mcmurray-fires?cmpid=pt-tw (http://www.takepart.com/feature/2016/05/13/fort-mcmurray-fires?cmpid=pt-tw)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 16, 2016, 07:18:30 PM
After Fort McMurray: where are the world's most fire-prone cities?
Images of the devastated Canadian city show just how destructive fire can be to urban populations. But the risk is greatest in informal settlements, where high population density and low-grade construction can be a deadly combination.
http://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/may/16/fort-mcmurray-alberta-canada-worlds-most-fire-prone-cities (http://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/may/16/fort-mcmurray-alberta-canada-worlds-most-fire-prone-cities)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 17, 2016, 05:00:49 AM
The Fort McMurray wildfire is still spreading:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-wildfire-enbridge-idUSKCN0Y71ZT (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-wildfire-enbridge-idUSKCN0Y71ZT)

Extract: "A massive wildfire burning around the oil sands hub of Fort McMurray was growing and moving rapidly north late on Monday, forcing firefighters to shift their focus to protecting major oil sand facilities north of the city, officials said."
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 17, 2016, 07:59:38 PM
The Fort McMurray wildfire continues to intensify and has now reached at least one tarsand camp:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fort-mcmurray-oilsands-work-camp-catches-fire-1.3585921 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fort-mcmurray-oilsands-work-camp-catches-fire-1.3585921)

Extract: "The fire in Fort McMurray has hit at least one of the oil camps north of the city after the province ordered new mandatory evacuations for that region Monday night."
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 17, 2016, 08:53:38 PM
Alberta reviews Fort McMurray re-entry plan as flames spread north
The Alberta government is taking a second look at its plan to allow people to return home to Fort McMurray after explosions damaged some homes in the city and a raging wildfire spread north toward oilsands plants.
...
Two explosions within Fort McMurray damaged 10 homes and poor air quality forced staff working to clean the hospital and natural gas utility workers to leave, she said.
http://www.nationalobserver.com/2016/05/17/news/alberta-reviews-fort-mcmurray-re-entry-plan-flames-spread-north (http://www.nationalobserver.com/2016/05/17/news/alberta-reviews-fort-mcmurray-re-entry-plan-flames-spread-north)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 18, 2016, 12:49:40 AM
Per the linked article, the Fort McMurray wildfire has grown 40% in the past two days:

https://news.vice.com/article/the-fort-mcmurray-fire-has-grown-40-percent-in-two-days
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 18, 2016, 05:19:49 PM
Scribbler has another excellent article on the Fort McMurray wildfire:

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/05/17/the-beast-growls-warming-induced-wildfire-again-doubles-in-size-burns-tar-sands-workers-camp/

Extract: "Overall, more than 530,000 hectares have now burned throughout Canada. This total is more than 24 times the amount of land consumed in fires by this time last year. During the 20th Century, large May burn extents of the kind Canada is experiencing during 2016 were unheard of."
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: TerryM on May 18, 2016, 06:12:06 PM
A friend's daughter lives/lived in Ft. Mac. She is still displaced primarily due to the air pollution levels mentioned in your linked article, and has no idea of when they will be able to return. Her husband works for a paving company who has laid off everyone.  ($0 paychecks)
I asked whether the oil companies were at least paying their employees, but she had no idea. Many workers have returned to their out of province homes while the rest are still filling the hotels of BC, Alberta & Saskatchewan.
Another article mentioned the figure of ~$9B to rebuild & I'd wondered if the money might be better spent building renewable energy systems, E-vehicles, or possibly seed money for a massive hydro electric dam. At some time the tar sands needs to be shut down. It's unlikely that another opportunity, where insurance money would help defray closeup/cleanup costs, will ever come along.
Terry
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 18, 2016, 09:38:27 PM
CNN:  Alberta wildfire out of control: 1,370 square miles torched, and counting
The mammoth inferno devastating northern Alberta has now destroyed more than 877,000 acres -- more than four times the size of New York City.

Well over 1,700 firefighters are trying to get a grip on the blaze, which started May 1 near Fort McMurray.  But as of Wednesday, the fire is still 0% contained, the Alberta Agriculture and Forestry department said.  Even worse: The blaze is marching east toward Saskatchewan and will likely reach the province Wednesday, Alberta wildfire official Chad Morrison said.

Also near the path: major oil sands used to process bitumen, CNN partner CBC reported.  The inferno could actually burn through the winter and into next year, University of Alberta wildfire professor MIke Flannigan said.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/18/americas/alberta-wildfire-canada-fort-mcmurray/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/18/americas/alberta-wildfire-canada-fort-mcmurray/index.html)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 18, 2016, 10:09:42 PM
The Fort McMurray Fire (Horse River Fire) has enlarged its footprint over the last two days to 422,898 hectares (1,045,022 acres, 1,632 square miles). On May 16 it was mapped at 284,000 hectares (702,000 acres, 1,097 square miles). The east side of the fire is approximately 3 miles (5 kilometers) from the Saskatchewan border.
Fort McMurray Fire expands to 1 million acres (http://wildfiretoday.com/2016/05/16/fort-mcmurray-fire-update-may-16-2016/) (UPDATE at 8:50 a.m. MDT, May 18, 2016)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwildfiretoday.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2016%2F05%2FFtMacFire-332-am-5-18-2016.jpg&hash=38605422d984b39b0642016f1b7285c9)
Map of the Fort McMurray Fire (Horse River Fire). The red line was the approximate perimeter the morning of May 16, 2016. The white line was from May 17. The dots represent heat detected by a satellite within the last 24 hours, with red being the most recent, as late as 3.32 a.m. MDT May 18, 2016. Click on the map to see a larger version.

On Tuesday the fire reached the Black Sands Camp and burned the Executive Lodge with its 665 units in spite of the building’s sprinkler system. It next spread to the Noralta Camp that houses 3,000 people, but at the last report firefighters held the fire at bay with no damage to the structures.

Two houses recently exploded in Fort McMurray, damaging ten other nearby homes. The causes are unknown.
...
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 19, 2016, 01:30:31 AM
Wildfires rage in Siberia and Russian Far East (http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0674-wildfires-rage-in-siberia-and-russian-far-east/)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fsiberiantimes.com%2FPICTURES%2FECOLOGY%2FWildfires-May-2016%2Finside_map.jpg&hash=7204492054ddb8614d6b0f0cd81018fd)

...
The scale was less than in Canada's dramatic fires, but is a reminder of the grave threat annually facing many Russian regions. Head of the Federal Forestry Agency Ivan Valentik blames people for much of the carnage.

'99% of all fires in the Amur region, the Trans-Baikal region and Buryatia are caused by people who set fire to grass,' he said. He warned that the tradition of burning dried grass ahead of the sowing season - popular since Soviet times - is now against the law.
...

It appears the Siberian fires are mostly in southern Siberia.  Some of the smoke, however, has been going into the Arctic.  Interesting that the article says Canada's fires are on a larger scale.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 19, 2016, 10:17:13 PM
Per the linked article, it is time to learn to adapt to megafires:

http://gizmodo.com/its-time-to-adapt-to-megafires-1775565260 (http://gizmodo.com/its-time-to-adapt-to-megafires-1775565260)

Extract: "Earlier this month, a devastating wildfire swept through the Canadian city of Fort McMurray, prompting more than 88,000 residents to evacuate. As the out-of-control blaze continues to swell in size, a bigger picture is starting to emerge: major fires like this are the future, and we’d better get used to it.
Since 1979, the duration of the fire season has increased by 20 percent worldwide. The global land area affected has doubled, meaning regions that were once too wet to burn are going up in smoke. Worst of all, “megafires” that cover hundreds of thousands of acres, move at hypersonic speeds, and swallow entire cities whole are now cropping up with alarming regularity. These raging infernos weren’t even on our radar until the late 1980s, but by the end of the 21st century, scientists say they could become the norm."
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 20, 2016, 05:46:45 PM
Scribbler has another excellent article on the Fort McMurray wildfire, indicating that it continues to grow, is zero percent contained and likely will continue through the boreal summer (and may continue into the boreal winter):

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/05/19/fort-mcmurray-fire-zero-percent-contained-1-2-million-acres-in-size-and-crossing-border-into-saskatchewan/

Extract: "By mid-afternoon Thursday, reports were coming in that the Fort McMurray Fire had again grown larger. Jumping to 1.2 million acres in size, or about 2,000 square miles, the blaze leapt the border into Saskachewan even as it ran through forested lands surrounding crippled tar sand facilities. It’s a fire now approaching twice the size of Rhode Island. A single inferno that, by itself, has now consumed more land than every fire that burned throughout the whole of Alberta during 2015.
….
With cooler weather and a 60 percent chance of rain today, fire conditions may abate somewhat. Rain predicted on Saturday could also aid in firefighting efforts. However, it is likely that this massive fire will continue to burn over Alberta and Saskatchewan throughout a good part of the summer.

Fort McMurray itself now sits firmly under a northbound flow of airs invading the polar region. Such powerful meridional flows feature much warmer than normal air temperatures and heightened risk for drought and wildfires. These zones have formed over recent years due to a weakening of the Jet Stream — which has been set off by sea ice loss and an assymetric warming of the High Arctic. Such polar amplification has also set off permafrost thaw, aided in pine beetle expansion northward toward and into the Arctic zone, and generated temperatures hotter than the range in which boreal forests typically survive and grow. Permafrost thaw combines with tree death to produce added fuels for fires even as warming provides more lightning strike ignition sources. This combination of global warming related factors has resulted in large wildfires occurring in the Arctic at 10 times their mid 20th Century ignition rate and is aiding in a greatly increased risk of fire throughout the boreal forest zone."
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 23, 2016, 04:11:17 PM
U.S. Forest Service:  Longer fire seasons; more frequent, bigger, more severe, and more costly #wildfires
https://twitter.com/forestservice/status/734738408669650945
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 31, 2016, 12:55:35 PM
Hundreds of undamaged Fort McMurray homes declared unsafe due to toxic ash
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/hundreds-of-undamaged-fort-mcmurray-homes-declared-unsafe-due-to-toxic-ash-1.3607928 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/hundreds-of-undamaged-fort-mcmurray-homes-declared-unsafe-due-to-toxic-ash-1.3607928)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Anne on June 01, 2016, 05:54:40 PM
Siberian forest fires may be left to burn, according to The Siberian Times.
On 26 May, some about 129,000 hectares of forests, mainly in the Republic of Buryatia, and TransBaikal and Amur regions were on fire. Up to 219 million hectares fall into the category of 'distant and hard-to-reach territories' which could be left to burn if they caught fire.

29 May 2016
A quarter of all Russian forests, 89% of stocks in Sakha Republic, could be left to burn, even though they are essential to fight global warming.
These vast tracts of forest have been labelled 'distant and hard-to-reach territories', and as such it is officially permitted not to extinguish forest fires if they do not constitute a threat to settlements or if a fire fighting operation is extremely expensive.
At the same time, there is official recognition that some regions in Siberia are underreporting the extent of forest fires for 'political reasons', an accusation long made by environmental campaigners.
Some 86% of forest in Sakha - also known as Yakutia, and the largest constituent of the Russian Federation - is deemed to fall into the category of 'distant and hard-to-reach territories', according to reports.
Some 219 million hectares - or 2.19 million square kilometres, a larger area than either Saudi Arabia or Greenland - is covered by the definition. This amounts to quarter of all forests in Russia, where trees - especially in Siberia - are seen as an essential brake on climate change.
A new decree in Sakha Republic says the emergency services may stop extinguishing fires in such territories if there is no threat to residential areas, or if costs are disproportionate. The move comes as the forest fire season is once more biting across Siberia.
On 26 May, some about 129,000 hectares of forests, mainly in the Republic of Buryatia, and TransBaikal and Amur regions were on fire. Greenpeace Russia believes that officials and regional authorities intentionally announce figures underestimate the scale of forest fires. According to the environmental activists, open satellite sources indicated fires covering up to 3 million hectares of forests as of 23 May.
Rosleskhoz - the Federal Agency for Forestry, a federal executive body responsible for oversight of forestry issues - admitted that official figures from regions may be at odds with the actual area of raging fires. Among other reasons this could be 'because of political factors'.
The agency promised to provide correct data about damage at the end of the [fire] season.
Nikolai Krotov, deputy head of Rosleskhoz, said: 'We have concerns about differences in Amur region, Buryatia, Chelyabinsk and Irkutsk regions. We don't rule out that there can be political factors, subjective factors, when information is submitted in a different way.'
Greenpeace has argued for information in real time, not at the end of the season, so fire-fighting resources can be switched between regions to be deployed in most needed areas.
Rosleskhoz told Kommersant newspaper that the move by the authorities in Yakutsk is 'not a refusal to extinguish forest fires'.
'It shouldn't be ruled out that the local forestry service will extinguish all the fires because significant part of the republic's population leads a nomadic lifestyle and is always moving around,' said a source.
Mikhail Kreindlin, an expert on specially protected areas at Greenpeace Russia, said other countries sometimes have a rule 'not to extinguish fire of natural origin' but this practice is not always successful because there is always a risk that the heart of the blaze may grow bigger.
He pointed to massive forest fires in Canada which resulted in the evacuation of up to 80,000 people in recent weeks. Greenpeace Russia also warned that failing to tackle forest fires can destroy rare animals.
The Siberian Times (http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0688-forests-on-fire-no-attempt-will-be-made-to-extinguish-219-million-hectares-of-burning-trees/).
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Juan C. García on June 01, 2016, 06:40:14 PM
Siberian forest fires may be left to burn, according to The Siberian Times.
On 26 May, some about 129,000 hectares of forests, mainly in the Republic of Buryatia, and TransBaikal and Amur regions were on fire. Up to 219 million hectares fall into the category of 'distant and hard-to-reach territories' which could be left to burn if they caught fire.

Now that we have problems receiving Arctic sea ice data from NSIDC and JAXA, it is a good time to focus on land. Unfortunately, doesn't look good. These images are the Climate Reanalyzer forescast for June 3rd to June 5th. I focus on the heat hour on Asia and I wonder the way this heat will promote permafrost melt and forest fires on the end of spring and summer.

Edit: Consequences that will become causes of global warming.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Juan C. García on June 01, 2016, 07:33:40 PM
Some chances of rain this week at limited regions in Asia, but in general, dry conditions.

We cannot make a conclusion with a few images, but they are part of a possible tendency. With permafrost melting and forest fires in Nothern Asia and Canada, humanity should be concerned that anthropogenic global warming could become the beginning of natural global warming.

Climate Reanalyzer (http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/#ARC-LEA)

Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: LRC1962 on June 01, 2016, 08:10:39 PM
http://wildfiretoday.com/2016/05/30/environmental-activists-estimate-7-million-acres-have-burned-in-siberia/ (http://wildfiretoday.com/2016/05/30/environmental-activists-estimate-7-million-acres-have-burned-in-siberia/)
Granted Greenpeace for their own reasons sometimes do exaggerate things, but remember in Siberia you have the problem that a lot of these are peat fires and some of these may not be new fires, but fires that are now resurfacing again not did not die out from last year.
In Canada, you do not have as much peat, because of the scraping down to rock from the last ice age.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: johnm33 on June 01, 2016, 09:56:22 PM
Saw this earlier too
http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0688-forests-on-fire-no-attempt-will-be-made-to-extinguish-219-million-hectares-of-burning-trees/ (http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0688-forests-on-fire-no-attempt-will-be-made-to-extinguish-219-million-hectares-of-burning-trees/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Anne on June 01, 2016, 10:36:18 PM
Ah, that's the story I linked to earlier at #108. The Siberian Times headline's a bit misleading: the 219 million hectares aren't actually burning, they are just in an area designated as 'distant and hard-to-reach territories' which could be left to burn if they caught fire.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 02, 2016, 01:43:58 PM
Spike in Alaska wildfires is worsening global warming, US says
The devastating rise in Alaska’s wildfires is making global warming even worse than scientists expected, US government researchers said on Wednesday.

The sharp spike in Alaska’s wildfires, where more than 5 million acres burned last year, are destroying a main buffer against climate change: the carbon-rich boreal forests, tundra and permafrost that have served as an enormous carbon sink.

Northern wildfires must now be recognised as a significant driver of climate change – and not just a side-effect, according to the report from the US Geological Survey.

“This is one of the surprises that we haven’t talked about much,” said Virginia Burkett, chief climate scientist at the USGS. “It has tremendous implications for the carbon that is locked up in Alaska soils and vegetation.”

A record wildfire year – such as 2015 which was the worst in Alaska for a decade – had a measurable effect on the release of carbon dioxide and methane, which are the main drivers of climate change.

“Our scientists found that the balance of carbon storage versus release in Alaska was strongly linked with wildfires,” Burkett said. “In years where there was high wildfire activity the net carbon balance declined dramatically, and then it would rebuild in the absence of fire.”
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/01/alaska-wildfires-climate-change (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/01/alaska-wildfires-climate-change)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: LRC1962 on June 02, 2016, 05:16:05 PM
This shows the complexity of understanding and predicting future events.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/09/arctic-carbon-bomb-may-never-happen-say-scientists (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/09/arctic-carbon-bomb-may-never-happen-say-scientists) shows that physics of leaks prove a slow release. Problem is that it will happen if no other events come into play. Wildfires on the other hand introduce an entirely different unpredictable element into play. It is unpredictable in that you can not tell when or how much it will happen. One thing you can be sure of is that it will happen. Question will be how much of the stored carbon it will release when it passes by.
In other words you may still end up having a bomb go off, just not as a direct result of melt.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Adam Ash on June 03, 2016, 10:54:12 AM
http://grist.org/climate-energy/the-zombie-wildfires-have-awakened-in-alaska/ (http://grist.org/climate-energy/the-zombie-wildfires-have-awakened-in-alaska/)

'The Soda Creek Fire raged through 16,500 acres in the same area last summer, according to Alaska Dispatch News. It smoldered underground, survived the winter, and finally reignited on Sunday, spreading to an acre within an hour.'

'Fire can burrow deep into the roots of old-growth trees, where it burns slowly, insulated by a thick, moisture-absorbing blanket of decomposing moss, leaves, and twigs on the forest floor. And once the ground freezes, the embers are sealed in, sometimes under feet of snow. Come spring, the ground warms up, the surrounding brush and trees dry out, and the fire can spring back to life.'


That will be having a nice impact on decomposition of calthrates in permafrost!
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: GeoffBeacon on June 03, 2016, 12:52:32 PM
New USGS Report Calculates Alaska’s Greenhouse Gas Potential (https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/content/new-report-calculates-alaska%E2%80%99s-greenhouse-gas-potential)

The scientists found that Alaska’s ecosystems currently capture as much carbon as they lose to the atmosphere. However, they said, rising temperatures, more wildfires and thawing permafrost still could tip the balance and make Alaska a net carbon source. That would further increase the concentration of gases that trap the sun’s energy and warm the Earth’s atmosphere.
Increases in wildfires are not accounted for in the CMIP5 models -  the UK department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) has confirmed (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/carbon-budgets-a-straightforward-answer-from-decc/).

the models used vary in what they include, and some feedbacks are absent as the understanding and modelling of these is not yet advanced enough to include. From those you raise, this applies to melting permafrost emissions, forest fires and wetlands decomposition.
DECC avoid saying how this affects the remaining carbon budget

DECC doesn’t estimate the remaining global carbon budget, however others such as the Global Carbon Project  (http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/index.htm) have estimated updates to the IPCC’s budget, based on emissions since 2010.
Anyone know how much the budgets should be decreased?

My rather rough calculations of the remaining budgets per person in the world - without reduction for missing feedbacks give
The remaining carbon budget for a 66% chance of avoiding 1.5˚C becomes

21 tonnes CO2 per person: 4 years to 1.5˚C

The remaining carbon budget for a 66% chance of avoiding 2.0˚C becomes…

85 tonnes CO2 per person: 16 years to 2.0˚C
These are for world average per person emissions. The populations of rich countries average much higher emissions.

P.S. I must admit some confusion between CO2 and CO2e in the calculations.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 04, 2016, 07:04:03 PM
Good read on the people, the tar sands, and the Fort McMurray fire.

Canada’s $6.9 Billion Wildfire Is the Size of Delaware—and Still Out of Control
The story of one Alberta family’s amazing escape from “The Beast.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-wildfire-fort-mcmurray/ (http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-wildfire-fort-mcmurray/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 04, 2016, 07:41:38 PM
New USGS Report Calculates Alaska’s Greenhouse Gas Potential (https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/content/new-report-calculates-alaska%E2%80%99s-greenhouse-gas-potential)

The scientists found that Alaska’s ecosystems currently capture as much carbon as they lose to the atmosphere. However, they said, rising temperatures, more wildfires and thawing permafrost still could tip the balance and make Alaska a net carbon source. That would further increase the concentration of gases that trap the sun’s energy and warm the Earth’s atmosphere.
Increases in wildfires are not accounted for in the CMIP5 models -  the UK department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) has confirmed (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/carbon-budgets-a-straightforward-answer-from-decc/).

the models used vary in what they include, and some feedbacks are absent as the understanding and modelling of these is not yet advanced enough to include. From those you raise, this applies to melting permafrost emissions, forest fires and wetlands decomposition.
DECC avoid saying how this affects the remaining carbon budget

DECC doesn’t estimate the remaining global carbon budget, however others such as the Global Carbon Project  (http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/index.htm) have estimated updates to the IPCC’s budget, based on emissions since 2010.
Anyone know how much the budgets should be decreased?

My rather rough calculations of the remaining budgets per person in the world - without reduction for missing feedbacks give
The remaining carbon budget for a 66% chance of avoiding 1.5˚C becomes

21 tonnes CO2 per person: 4 years to 1.5˚C

The remaining carbon budget for a 66% chance of avoiding 2.0˚C becomes…

85 tonnes CO2 per person: 16 years to 2.0˚C
These are for world average per person emissions. The populations of rich countries average much higher emissions.

P.S. I must admit some confusion between CO2 and CO2e in the calculations.

Geoff,

First, per the first & seconded attached plots (based on Jan-March, and Jan-April, respectively) and issued recently by Gavin Schmidt there is a real chance that we could exceed 1.5C by the end of 2016.

Second, the USGS report that you cited not only understates the possible implications of wildfires, it clearly understates the implications of methane emissions from Alaskan lakes as indicated by the following extract from:

Edited by Zhiliang Zhu and A. David McGuire, "Baseline and Projected Future Carbon Storage and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes in Ecosystems of Alaska", USGS Professional Paper 1826, ISSN 1044-9612 (print), ISSN 2330-7102 (online)

http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1826/pp1826.pdf (http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1826/pp1826.pdf)

Extract of the last paragraph in the main body of the report: "The results of our synthesis have implications for carbon management strategies that might be implemented as part of national policies aimed at controlling the rate and overall magnitude of climate change. These results suggest that Alaska could be a sink for greenhouse gases under some climate scenarios, but under others it could be a source, depending on the response of CH4 emissions of lakes. However, it is important to recognize that CH4 emissions from lakes have not been considered in this assessment, and it is likely that Alaska would be a source of greenhouse gases under all climate simulations if these emissions were considered in the assessment. Models have recently been developed for simulating CH4 emissions of arctic lakes (Tan and others, 2015), and these models may be useful for estimating regional CH4 emissions of lakes in Alaska in future assessments to more fully inform policy decisions concerning the mitigation of greenhouse-gas emissions in the United States."

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 17, 2016, 01:40:25 PM
21 large fires currently burning in the U.S.  Most are in the southwest, which is just beginning what looks to be a 10+ day major heatwave.

Map and info:
http://wxshift.com/climate-change/climate-indicators/us-wildfires (http://wxshift.com/climate-change/climate-indicators/us-wildfires)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 17, 2016, 04:52:49 PM
The Santa Barbara County fire doubled in size overnight:

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-sherpa-fire-20160617-snap-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-sherpa-fire-20160617-snap-story.html)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 18, 2016, 09:24:54 AM
The Sherpa fire in Santa Barbara County has increased from 4,000 yesterday to 6,000 acres (and is still increasing in size):

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-sherpa-fire-20160617-snap-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-sherpa-fire-20160617-snap-story.html)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 18, 2016, 01:41:55 PM
Russia significantly under-reporting wildfires, figures show
Greenpeace analysis of satellite data reveals 3.5m hectares have burned this year, while government statistics claim only 669,000 hectares
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/16/russia-significantly-under-reporting-wildfires-figures-show (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/16/russia-significantly-under-reporting-wildfires-figures-show)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 18, 2016, 07:03:36 PM
Map and info at the link.

CAL FIRE PIO Berlant : Latest on the #SherpaFire west of Goleta (Santa Barbara County) - 7,063 acres, 24% contained & over 1,200 personnel.
https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/744182746793140224
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 20, 2016, 03:31:18 AM
The wildfires in the US Southwest are being fed by record heat:

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/crews-fighting-southwest-wildfires-prepare-excessive-heat-n595201 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/crews-fighting-southwest-wildfires-prepare-excessive-heat-n595201)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 24, 2016, 06:03:10 PM
The linked Climate Central article is entitled: "Climate Change is Tipping Scales Toward More Wildfires"

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/western-wildfires-climate-change-20475 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/western-wildfires-climate-change-20475)

Extract: "Climate change is producing conditions ripe for wildfires, tipping the scales in favor of the dramatic increases in large wildfires we have seen across the West since the 1970s. Snowpack is melting earlier as winter and spring temperatures rise, and in most states an increasing percentage of winter precipitation is falling as rain, meaning there is often less snowpack to begin with. Summer temperatures are rising, particularly in Southwestern states, where the number of extremely hot days is steadily increasing, creating more days where forests and grasslands are dried out and ready to burn."
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 24, 2016, 08:08:01 PM
California:

ERSKINE FIRE IN KERN COUNTY SCORCHES 19,034 ACRES
A fast-moving wildfire has exploded to 19,034 acres after destroying 100 structures and forcing hundreds of evacuations in rural communities near Lake Isabella in Kern County.

So far, there is no containment estimate. Approximately 80 of the 100 structures are homes, officials said.

The blaze, dubbed the Erskine Fire, exploded in size quickly after breaking out in the area around 4 p.m. Thursday. By evening, it had burned through 5,000 acres due to low humidity conditions and high heat. Early Friday morning, it was around 8,000 acres before more than doubling in size by 10 a.m.
http://abc7.com/news/erskine-fire-in-kern-county-explodes-to-19034-acres/1399705/ (http://abc7.com/news/erskine-fire-in-kern-county-explodes-to-19034-acres/1399705/)


That's quite a detour:
CalTrans: US 395 closed near Lee Vining due to wildfire
http://foxreno.com/news/local/caltrans-us-395-closed-near-lee-vining-due-to-wildfire (http://foxreno.com/news/local/caltrans-us-395-closed-near-lee-vining-due-to-wildfire)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 25, 2016, 05:13:39 PM
Erskine Fire has burned through the communities of Squirrel Valley and South Lake, California, near Lake Isabella.
Included video shows "some of the conditions the firefighters were dealing with as the Erskine Fire at Lake Isabella burned homes."

California: scores of homes burn in Erskine Fire
http://wildfiretoday.com/2016/06/23/california-scores-of-homes-burn-in-erskine-fire/ (http://wildfiretoday.com/2016/06/23/california-scores-of-homes-burn-in-erskine-fire/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 25, 2016, 11:03:44 PM
The linked article discusses the topic: "'Catastrophic' California Wildfires Could Erupt in ‘Unprecedented’ 66 Million Dead Trees":

https://weather.com/safety/wildfires/news/unprecedented-millions-dead-trees-california-could-fuel-catastrophic-wildfires
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 26, 2016, 01:14:38 AM
http://ktla.com/2016/06/25/erskine-fire-1500-structures-threatened-by-46-square-mile-wildfire-in-kern-county-containment-at-5/ (http://ktla.com/2016/06/25/erskine-fire-1500-structures-threatened-by-46-square-mile-wildfire-in-kern-county-containment-at-5/)
Erskine Fire: 150 Structures Destroyed, 1,500 More Threatened by 55-Square-Mile Wildfire in Kern County

'growing potential on south and east sides' from InciWeb (http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/4806/).
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 26, 2016, 12:25:00 PM
150 homes destroyed, 75 damaged.  Short video:
CAL FIRE Battalion Chief Mike Mohler at scene in Kern County with the latest on the over 35,000 acre #ErskineFire
https://twitter.com/cal_fire/status/746833773438730240

#ErskineFire in Kern County is now 36,810 acres & 10% contained. 1,712 personnel assigned. Photo by @EPN564
https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/746924355339247617
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: GeoffBeacon on June 26, 2016, 03:11:16 PM
AbruptSLR

Just noticed your post of Jun4th.

Thanks.

It makes this Brexit fuss seem trivial, especially after those images Sigmentnow has just posted.

Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 28, 2016, 10:35:32 PM
Dan Lindsey:  Ridiculous amounts of smoke being generated by fires in eastern #Russia -  #Himawari movie: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=loop_of_the_day/20160628000000&number_of_images_to_display=100&loop_speed_ms=100 (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=loop_of_the_day/20160628000000&number_of_images_to_display=100&loop_speed_ms=100)

https://twitter.com/danlindsey77/status/747799591764922369 (https://twitter.com/danlindsey77/status/747799591764922369)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 01, 2016, 04:45:01 PM
With ENSO conditions currently being neutral (meaning no La Nina rains for the Amazon in the near future), the linked article indicates that the El Nino dried Amazon is primed for wildfires in the coming months:

http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2016/0630/This-El-Nino-season-could-spark-intense-wildfires-in-Amazon (http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2016/0630/This-El-Nino-season-could-spark-intense-wildfires-in-Amazon)

Extract: "Following the recent El Niño event, conditions in the Amazon are drier than the start of any dry season since 2002."
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 01, 2016, 05:26:00 PM
The linked Scribbler article indicates that large portions of Siberia are currently experiencing wildfires and record high temperatures:

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/07/01/wildfires-in-the-land-of-frozen-ground-1000-mile-long-pall-of-smoke-covers-burning-siberia/

Extract: "Wildfires in the Land of Frozen Ground — 1,000 Mile Long Pall of Smoke Blankets Burning Siberia"
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 03, 2016, 05:25:32 PM
It seems that the California wildfire season is continuing:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-wildfires-idUSKCN0ZI0YY (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-wildfires-idUSKCN0ZI0YY)

Extract: "A new wildfire burning through bone-dry grass, shrub and timber has forced the evacuation of dozens of homes in a mountain community in central California and more houses could be in the inferno's path, fire officials said on Saturday."
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 03, 2016, 06:53:59 PM
The linked article is entitled: "As peatlands dry out from climate change, wildfire risk increases", and it highlights the increasing risk (with continued global warming) of boreal peatland wildfires from Canada, to Siberia to Alaska:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/drying-peatland-wildfire-risk-1.3655059?cmp=rss (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/drying-peatland-wildfire-risk-1.3655059?cmp=rss)

Extract: "Peatlands are one of the staples of the boreal forest that sweeps across Canada. The 185 billion tonnes of mossy wetlands across the country can act as firebreaks, literally dampening the flames as they move across the landscape.

But when dried, the peatlands are a tinderbox — and a new study says the latter is becoming more and more common as the climate warms."
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 04, 2016, 01:05:33 AM
Singapore to pursue firms over forest fires, despite Indonesian ire (http://www.todayonline.com/world/asia/singapore-pursue-firms-over-forest-fires-despite-indonesian-ire)

JAKARTA — Singapore is refusing to back down in its pursuit of those responsible for haze-belching forest fires in Southeast Asia last year, despite struggling to bring the perpetrators before the courts and drawing a sharp rebuke from neighbouring Indonesia.

Forest fires are part of an annual dry-season problem in Indonesia, started illegally to quickly and cheaply clear land for cultivation — particularly for palm oil and pulpwood.

But last year’s haze outbreak was among the worst in memory, shrouding Malaysia, Singapore, and parts of Thailand in acrid smoke and forcing school closures as pollution reached hazardous levels and thousands fell sick across the region.

Singapore has served notice to six Indonesian companies it believes may have cleared land by burning but could target others as investigations continue, according to Singapore’s ambassador to Indonesia Anil Kumar Nayar.
...
What the "almighty dollar" (or rupiah) drives people to.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 04, 2016, 01:29:11 AM
Some north Canada headlines from CBC News (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/alberta-forest-fire-prompts-fort-smith-n-w-t-residents-to-prepare-for-evacuation-1.3662234)

    Alberta forest fire prompts Fort Smith, N.W.T., residents to prepare for evacuation
    Lightning starts 7 new fires in N.W.T. over the weekend
    1st N.W.T. wildfire of 2016 breaks out 25 km northeast of Yellowknife
    Burn ban in effect in Yellowknife, fire danger high in southern N.W.T.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 06, 2016, 08:08:53 PM
Eric Holthaus:
Most forested areas of California will have above normal risk for wildfire during July.
http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf (http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf)
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/750750879242809344 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/750750879242809344)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on July 08, 2016, 10:05:34 PM
El Nino has increased Amazon basin drought. The fire season will be extreme. There are already more fires than 2015.

See: http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/2016/07/el-nino-creates-amazon-drought-and.html (http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/2016/07/el-nino-creates-amazon-drought-and.html)

Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 12, 2016, 01:10:54 AM
CAL FIRE: Even with cooler temperatures last week, there were over 360 new wildfires. 3,112 since Jan 1 burning 120,444 acres.
https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/752600465032900608
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 12, 2016, 01:47:41 AM
Calif. facing most volatile fire season in over 100 years, fire chief says
"Even though some of the fuels appear to be green there is five years of dead growth underneath those fuels and there is a potential for a catastrophic fire," he said.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/california-facing-most-volatile-fire-season-in-over-100-years-fire-chief/ (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/california-facing-most-volatile-fire-season-in-over-100-years-fire-chief/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 20, 2016, 08:25:55 PM
California's Costly Wildfire Season Might Never End
L.A.-based photographer Stuart Palley has been chasing deadly wildfires for years now, watching the fire season get longer and longer as global warming creates a hotter, drier environment. Here, he gives us an up-close-and-personal look at the wildfires that might soon rage year-round.
"The Joshua tree is an endangered species; they evolved to survive fires, but these fires burn so hot it's beyond what they're adapted for. They're being decimated. It takes a long time for them to grow, and these fires are happening so quickly that they're not growing back."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/photo-essays/2016-07-20/california-s-costly-wildfire-season-might-never-end (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/photo-essays/2016-07-20/california-s-costly-wildfire-season-might-never-end)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 20, 2016, 09:15:46 PM
Widespread Russian Wildfire Smoke Stretches Nearly 2,000 Miles
Wildfires burning in central and eastern Russia this week have contributed to an eye-popping amount of smoke that is trapped under a dome of high pressure.

You can see the smoke – the milky white area – extending for nearly 2,000 miles from west to east across Russia in the NASA satellite image above from Wednesday. Each red dot on the map is a fire and thermal anomaly detected by satellite, illustrating where some of the active fires were occurring at that time.
https://weather.com/news/weather/news/russia-wildfire-smoke-widespread-july-2016


Images:
Smoke across Russia on satellite July 18, 2016. Each red dot shows fire/thermal anomalies detected by satellite.(NASA)

Weather pattern in Asia July 20, 2016 with high pressure centered over central Russia leading to stagnant conditions.

Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 24, 2016, 01:16:59 PM
Extreme fire conditions near Los Angeles this weekend.  Multiple fires being fought.

Sand Fire:
Santa Clarita Brush Fire Scorches 20,000 Acres; 10 Percent Contained
http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2016/07/22/growing-20-acre-brush-fire-reported-in-santa-clarita/ (http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2016/07/22/growing-20-acre-brush-fire-reported-in-santa-clarita/)

Shelters Open To Help Animals Caught Up In Sand Fire
It was a massive team effort as volunteers lined up with trailers to evacuate more than 400 animals from the Wildlife Waystation.

“We’re moving them to multiple locations right now, but it’s a tall order,” Jerry Brown from Wildlife Waystation said.

There are horses, billy goats, and exotic animals like lions, tigers, and even bears.

“It’s painstakingly slow, because although anyone can drive, only a few vets and trainers can handle tigers, which need to be caged and sedated before being moved to nearby warehouses,” Brown said.
http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2016/07/23/shelters-open-to-help-animals-caught-up-in-sand-fire/ (http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2016/07/23/shelters-open-to-help-animals-caught-up-in-sand-fire/)


Soberanes Fire:
CAL FIRE:  Evacuation Warning issued for the Carmel Highlands area due to the 6,500 acre #SoberanesFire in Monterey County.
https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/757023689363763201 (https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/757023689363763201)
CAL FIRE:  Latest facts on the #SoberanesFire south of Carmel (Monterey County) - 6,500 acres, 5% contained & 780 personnel.
https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/757046133222801408 (https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/757046133222801408)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 25, 2016, 02:02:20 PM
“We are in July,” he said. “We’ve never had four major fires within six weeks in June and July.”

California:  Out-of-control wildfire grows to more than 33,000 acres in Santa Clarita Valley
“Five years ago, if we had a similar fire, we would have probably caught [it] at the ridge,” Los Angeles County Fire Department Chief Daryl L. Osby said at the news conference.
...
“We’ve never seen a fire come into Sand Canyon like that,” Tripp said. “All the experience we’ve had with fires is out the window.”
...
The Sand fire, which is named for Sand Canyon, is the latest blaze to ravage L.A. County this year.

Earlier this season, Tripp said, blazes in Calabasas, Duarte and Stevenson Ranch, which would have likely claimed 20 to 50 acres in a normal year, have spread exponentially, burning thousands of acres. Tripp said he can’t help but worry about what the remainder of the season will bring.
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-santa-clarita-fire-day-three-20160724-snap-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-santa-clarita-fire-day-three-20160724-snap-story.html)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 25, 2016, 02:05:52 PM
The Sand Fire in Santa Clarita Offers Omens of a Fiery Future
Wildfires are a normal part of life in Southern California. But what’s burning right now is not a normal fire.

As of midday Sunday, the Sand Fire had grown to 22,000 acres (34 square miles) — roughly the same size as the island of Manhattan — and was just 10 percent contained. In nearby Los Angeles, the fire prompted frequent references to the Apocalypse this weekend, as the large smoke plume dropped ash and blotted out the sun.

The fire, which started as a small brush fire along the side of Highway 14 near Santa Clarita, California, on Friday, quickly spread out of control under weather conditions that were nearly ideal for explosive growth. The fire doubled in size overnight on Friday, and then doubled again during the day on Saturday.
https://psmag.com/the-sand-fire-in-santa-clarita-offers-omens-of-a-fiery-future-e142811ed90e
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on July 25, 2016, 08:25:34 PM

Soberanes fire from my house two nights ago:
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 26, 2016, 02:43:47 AM
Sand Fire Burn Scar
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=88445 (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=88445)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: ritter on July 26, 2016, 05:38:17 PM

Soberanes fire from my house two nights ago:

Yikes! Packed and ready just in case? Best.

My inlaws were in similar proximity to the Valley Fire that wiped out Middletown last year. Scary how explosive these things are under our current dry/hot/windy conditions.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 02, 2016, 09:04:34 PM
Fort McMurray flooding a 'bad dream' after wildfire
'It's just not our year,' city councillor says after flooding damages homes that escaped wildfire
People in Fort McMurray are taking stock of water damage after torrential rain flooded parts of the city over the weekend, including some areas that escaped devastation from the wildfire that forced tens of thousands out of the northern Alberta community in May.

Rising water prompted the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo to reopen its emergency operations centre for the first time since the wildfire, which has come to be known as the Beast.

City crews in drainage trucks pumped water out of those neighbourhoods on the weekend, even as it trickled into basements and forced road closures.

"It's a bad dream," said city Coun. Keith McGrath. "I think I'm in a bit of a denial state. How can this happen? How can so much happen within the span of three months?"
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fort-mcmurray-flooding-1.3702881 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fort-mcmurray-flooding-1.3702881)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on August 02, 2016, 09:31:04 PM

Soberanes fire from my house two nights ago:

Yikes! Packed and ready just in case? Best.

My inlaws were in similar proximity to the Valley Fire that wiped out Middletown last year. Scary how explosive these things are under our current dry/hot/windy conditions.

Fortunately (for us) it's not moving North and is unlikely to reach us. Residents south and east are having to move out. It's going to burn out a huge portion of the Santa Lucia highlands (where Big Sur is).

http://cdfdata.fire.ca.gov/incidents/incidents_details_info?incident_id=1348 (http://cdfdata.fire.ca.gov/incidents/incidents_details_info?incident_id=1348)

unfortunately they haven't been updating the fire maps, except the one in the local Starbucks or I'd like the extent.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 03, 2016, 03:16:06 PM
The California National Guard is joining the effort to fight Central California wildfires.

https://twitter.com/thecaguard/status/760652003630419968
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 09, 2016, 07:54:57 PM
Portugal Wildfires: Hospital, Hundreds of Homes Evacuated in Madeira
The worst-hit areas were in northern Portugal, where temperatures have exceeded 86 Fahrenheit since Saturday. The region's pine and eucalyptus forests are tinder-dry after a long spell without significant rain.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/portugal-wildfires-hospital-hundreds-homes-evacuated-madeira-n626176 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/portugal-wildfires-hospital-hundreds-homes-evacuated-madeira-n626176)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 10, 2016, 10:11:33 PM
10,000 people being evacuated in Vitrolles, France, after forest fire burns about 1,800 acres - La Provence
http://www.laprovence.com/article/faits-divers-justice/4069485/feux-importants-dans-les-bouches-du-rhone-a-istres-fos-et-vitrolles-ou-des-quartiers-sont-e (http://www.laprovence.com/article/faits-divers-justice/4069485/feux-importants-dans-les-bouches-du-rhone-a-istres-fos-et-vitrolles-ou-des-quartiers-sont-e)
https://twitter.com/breakingnews/status/763440310185758721 (https://twitter.com/breakingnews/status/763440310185758721)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 11, 2016, 03:08:29 PM
And now, an article in English:  ;)

Thousands Evacuated as Several Fires Blaze Across Southern France
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/thousands-evacuated-several-fires-blaze-across-southern-france-n627611 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/thousands-evacuated-several-fires-blaze-across-southern-france-n627611)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 15, 2016, 02:13:33 PM
California wildfire forces 1,000 evacuations and destroys homes
Flames racing through dry brush destroyed four homes and forced more than 1,000 people to flee a northern California lake community that was evacuated in a devastating wildfire last year.

Authorities ordered about 1,200 residents to leave 500 homes as the blaze surged south of the town of Lower Lake. The wildfire spread to more than two square miles by early Sunday, and crews faced hot weather and little cloud cover as they tried to get a handle on the flames burning largely out of control.
...
Another blaze that broke out Saturday afternoon forced the evacuation of 135 homes south of Lake Nacimiento in central California, the San Luis Obispo County sheriff’s office said. It burned more than two square miles, but no homes have been lost and it is partially contained.

In the south, residents were readying for a heat wave. Temperatures were expected to reach triple digits in valley areas north of Los Angeles, stoking an increased risk of wildfires in inland regions through at least Wednesday, the National Weather Service said.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/aug/14/california-wildfire-evacuations-homes-destroyed (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/aug/14/california-wildfire-evacuations-homes-destroyed)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 15, 2016, 07:26:35 PM
CALFIRE PIO: Latest damage estimates on the #ClaytonFire in Lake County: 175 structures destroyed. Damage assessment continues.
https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/765213876770050048 (https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/765213876770050048)
Clayton Fire burns structures near Lower Lake, California
The fire is burning near the scars from three very large fires from 2015
http://wildfiretoday.com/2016/08/14/clayton-fire-burns-structures-near-lower-lake-california/ (http://wildfiretoday.com/2016/08/14/clayton-fire-burns-structures-near-lower-lake-california/)

180-degree wind shift pushed Clayton Fire into Lower Lake
http://wildfiretoday.com/2016/08/15/180-degree-wind-shift-pushed-clayton-fire-into-lower-lake/ (http://wildfiretoday.com/2016/08/15/180-degree-wind-shift-pushed-clayton-fire-into-lower-lake/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 17, 2016, 04:34:45 PM
Blue Cut Fire Burns 30,000 Acres, Forces 82,000 to Evacuate in California
A wildfire continued raging through rural communities in California Wednesday, triggering a state of emergency and evacuation orders for more than 82,000 residents in the San Bernardino area.

More than 700 firefighters and other emergency workers were battling the Blue Cut fire, which flared early Tuesday some 60 miles east of Los Angeles and spread rapidly along the Cajon Pass. By Wednesday morning, it had burned 30,000 acres, with firefighters unable to contain any of it, officials said.

Gov. Jerry Brown declared a state of emergency in San Bernardino County, families fled and Interstate 15 was closed as the blaze grew.
...
The fire was zero percent contained and covered 28 square miles at 11 p.m. PT (2 a.m. ET) — only 12 hours after it began — according to CalFire.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/blue-cut-fire-burns-18-000-acres-forces-82-000-n632486 (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/blue-cut-fire-burns-18-000-acres-forces-82-000-n632486)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: ritter on August 17, 2016, 06:05:35 PM
Blue Cut Fire Burns 30,000 Acres, Forces 82,000 to Evacuate in California
A wildfire continued raging through rural communities in California Wednesday, triggering a state of emergency and evacuation orders for more than 82,000 residents in the San Bernardino area.

More than 700 firefighters and other emergency workers were battling the Blue Cut fire, which flared early Tuesday some 60 miles east of Los Angeles and spread rapidly along the Cajon Pass. By Wednesday morning, it had burned 30,000 acres, with firefighters unable to contain any of it, officials said.

Gov. Jerry Brown declared a state of emergency in San Bernardino County, families fled and Interstate 15 was closed as the blaze grew.
...
The fire was zero percent contained and covered 28 square miles at 11 p.m. PT (2 a.m. ET) — only 12 hours after it began — according to CalFire.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/blue-cut-fire-burns-18-000-acres-forces-82-000-n632486 (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/blue-cut-fire-burns-18-000-acres-forces-82-000-n632486)

This thing literally just blew up. Unreal fire conditions. Best to all impacted by it.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 17, 2016, 11:46:35 PM
Eric Holthaus on the incredible fire weather around the Blue Cut fire.  The linked article has many embedded links, including a short video showing "a rapid advance of flames in a matter of seconds."

The National Weather Service in San Diego, which has forecasting responsibility for the area around the fire, described the stunningly extreme weather that helped lead to the fire's quick growth:

DRAMATIC ATMOSPHERIC CHANGES OCCURRED OVER THE HIGH DESERTS AND THE 
SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN A SURGE OF DRY AIR SENT 
DEW POINTS PLUMMETING BELOW ZERO. AT 2 PM TODAY THE DEW POINT AT 
DAGGETT WAS -11F, THE TEMPERATURE WAS 107, AND THE RH WAS 1%. 
HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE MINIMAL TONIGHT. AT 8 PM THE RH AT DAGGETT 
WAS STILL ONLY 4%.

The weather will remain nearly ideal for fire growth on Wednesday and Thursday. Interstate 15 is closed, so people traveling between L.A. and Las Vegas have to take a 5-hour detour through the desert.
http://tinyletter.com/sciencebyericholthaus/letters/today-in-weather-climate-blue-cut-fire-edition-wednesday-august-17th (http://tinyletter.com/sciencebyericholthaus/letters/today-in-weather-climate-blue-cut-fire-edition-wednesday-august-17th)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on August 18, 2016, 02:08:27 AM

it looks like it is a VERY bad fire

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-37113697 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-37113697)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2016, 12:24:42 AM
“Our forests and wild lands are under attack from climate change,” Governor Inslee said.

Washington state Gov. Jay Inslee has declared a state of emergency for 20 Eastern Washington counties in response to multiple wildfires that threaten homes and natural resources.
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/northwest/inslee-declares-emergency-in-20-counties-due-to-wildfires/ (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/northwest/inslee-declares-emergency-in-20-counties-due-to-wildfires/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2016, 01:03:56 AM
CAL FIRE PIO:  Last week there were 215 new wildfires in California. Over 5,350 wildfires since Jan 1 burning nearly 500,000 acres.
https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/773279496971485184

(Brief wildfire video at link.)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: solartim27 on September 17, 2016, 06:09:12 PM
Russian fires are getting pretty big (again).  These have been growing since the start of the month.  Did a quick news scan and did not see anything.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: jdallen on September 17, 2016, 08:30:58 PM
Russian fires are getting pretty big (again).  These have been growing since the start of the month.  Did a quick news scan and did not see anything.
I think it's just amazing this isn't more visible in the media
[Edit: Another view of it]
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: MrVisible on September 18, 2016, 01:44:09 AM
Wow, you're not kidding. Here's what they look like on http://earth.nullschool.net/ (http://earth.nullschool.net/) in the CO2sc and COsc views under Chem. They simply dwarf the emissions coming from Japan.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: silkman on September 19, 2016, 10:10:24 AM
Unbelievable levels of smoke showing over Western Siberia on this morning's MODIS. Swipe to the left to see more.

Signs of significant action too in Indonesia. When will they learn?
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Fairbanksnchill on September 19, 2016, 11:04:39 AM
All the foliage from the arctic down to Siberia visibly gets browner over the last month. Here is the link to the active fire data (google earth kml) for the region.

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/active_fire/c6/kml/MODIS_C6_Russia_and_Asia_24h.kml (https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/active_fire/c6/kml/MODIS_C6_Russia_and_Asia_24h.kml)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2016, 05:16:03 PM
California's Soberanes Fire becomes costliest to fight in US history
The center estimates the cost of fighting the blaze at $197.8 million. According to Iveth Hernandez, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Forest Service, the long duration of the fire plays a big role in the cost of the fire.

The previous record for the costliest wildfire to fight was the Biscuit Fire of 2002 at about $165 million. It started as five separate fires ignited by lightning and burned nearly 500,000 acres in Northern California and Southern Oregon, according to a Government Accountability Office report on the response to the blaze.

According to California Interagency Incident Management Team 1, the daily costs of fighting the Soberanes Fire have fallen from a peak of $8 million to $2 million. Hernandez said part of the reason for the drop in daily cost is because the fire is burning in remote areas of Los Padres National Forest and the number of personnel fighting the blaze is down from a peak of 5,636 last month to 1,392.
http://www.montereyherald.com/article/NF/20160915/NEWS/160919808 (http://www.montereyherald.com/article/NF/20160915/NEWS/160919808)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2016, 05:21:39 PM
Blazes in Southeast Asia May Have Led to Deaths of Over 100,000, Study Says
The forest fire and haze disaster in Southeast Asia last year may have led to the deaths of more than 100,000 people, according to a study released Monday by researchers from two United States universities. A vast majority of the cases were in Indonesia, where fires were deliberately set to clear land for agriculture.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/20/world/asia/indonesia-haze-smog-health.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/20/world/asia/indonesia-haze-smog-health.html)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 24, 2016, 02:33:40 AM
'The school is closed, locals are afraid to go out - the visibility is about 100-150 metres. Two flights are already cancelled - the runway is not visible.'

Oil pipes threatened by forest fires amid disputes over the scale of destruction
Greenpeace claims up to 300 times more territory in Siberia is ablaze than officially acknowledged.
20 September:  Officials on Tuesday acknowledged a 20% rise in forest fires in the past 24 hours but campaigning group Greenpeace alleged that state agencies are hugely underestimating the scope of the problem.
http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0740-oil-pipes-threatened-by-forest-fires-amid-disputes-over-the-scale-of-destruction/ (http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0740-oil-pipes-threatened-by-forest-fires-amid-disputes-over-the-scale-of-destruction/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 24, 2016, 08:02:00 PM
Brazil's raging forest fires threaten indigenous land, uncontacted tribes
Brazil's uncontacted tribes, some of the last on earth, depend on large areas of unspoiled forest land to hunt animals and gather the food they need to survive

RIO DE JANEIRO, Sept 21 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Forest fires raging in northeast Brazil are forcing indigenous people out of their traditional territories and threatening uncontacted tribes, an indigenous leader said on Wednesday.

Fire season in the Amazon and surrounding savannah normally lasts from July to November, but burning has become more intense due to climate change and illegal logging, said Sonia Guajajara, National Coordinator of the Association of Indigenous Peoples.

Uncontacted members of the Awa tribe live in areas affected by fires, and some have been forced out of the jungle, Guajajara told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.
http://news.trust.org/item/20160921171434-zkn2i/ (http://news.trust.org/item/20160921171434-zkn2i/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 29, 2016, 09:38:31 PM
The linked Scribbler article is entitled: " We are Suffocating from Smoke” — For Russia, Climate Change is Already Producing Fires that are Too Big to Fight"

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/09/28/for-one-month-we-are-suffocating-from-smoke-for-russia-climate-change-is-already-producing-fires-that-are-too-big-to-fight/

Extract: "Over the past decade or so, a rapid warming of Siberia has resulted in a dramatic increase in fire incidence. The vast boreal forests were thrust into hotter, dryer conditions by a human-forced warming of the globe. Meanwhile, permafrost thaw added its own massive and growing volumes of peat-like fuel for burning. As the years progressed, very large fires have erupted with rising frequency. Mostly underreported, according to Greenpeace and independent satellite analysis by experts, these fires have covered millions of acres year after year after year:

“If you look at the whole area over the past 30 years, there’s a significant increase in burned area that is very clear by the early 2000s,” Susan Conrad, a former U.S. Forest Service scientist who has spent decades researching the impact of fire on Siberia, told ClimateWire.""
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 08, 2016, 03:55:41 PM
Drought has led to wildfires in Tennessee and North Carolina, U.S.A.

Burning ban ordered as wildfires toast North Carolina mountains
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/local/article113130343.html (http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/local/article113130343.html)

Drought behind increase in fires in East Tennessee
http://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/local/2016/10/31/several-fires-burning-cherokee-national-forest/93063326/ (http://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/local/2016/10/31/several-fires-burning-cherokee-national-forest/93063326/)

PLUMES OF SMOKE ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...EAST TENNESSEE... AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA... AREA FIRES ARE PRODUCING PLUMES OF SMOKE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING LOCALIZED VISIBILITIES TO ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AND PRODUCING VERY UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS. AREA RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WILL WANT TO REMAIN INDOORS TO AVOID EXCESSIVE EXPOSURE TO THE SMOKE. THOSE SUFFERING FROM BREATHING AILMENTS WILL ESPECIALLY WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT WINDOWS ARE CLOSED AND AIR INTAKE SYSTEMS ARE SHUT DOWN. AN AIR QUALITY ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=gsp&wwa=special%20weather%20statement (http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=gsp&wwa=special%20weather%20statement)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 10, 2016, 07:15:23 PM
Evacuations now in five North Carolina mountain counties as wildfires top 10,000 acres
ASHEVILLE, N.C. (WNCN) – Evacuations are now taking place in five North Carolina mountain counties as nearly 20 wildfires totaling more than 10,000 acres continue to spread.
http://wncn.com/2016/11/09/evacuations-now-in-4-nc-mountain-counties-as-wildfires-top-10000-acres/ (http://wncn.com/2016/11/09/evacuations-now-in-4-nc-mountain-counties-as-wildfires-top-10000-acres/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 10, 2016, 07:17:04 PM
Understanding fire scars on trees:  How does a tree damaged by a wildfire heal the wound?
http://wildfiretoday.com/2016/11/08/understanding-fire-scars-on-trees/ (http://wildfiretoday.com/2016/11/08/understanding-fire-scars-on-trees/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 13, 2016, 04:00:54 AM
Wildfire just southeast of Asheville, North Carolina.
https://twitter.com/joyoverturf/status/797272364287401984 (https://twitter.com/joyoverturf/status/797272364287401984)


NC mountain wildfires exceed 23,000 acres as 6th county orders evacuations
The fires are producing so much smoke that the drifting smoke prompted air quality authorities to declare a Code Orange on Friday in Charlotte.

In North Carolina’s Nantahala National Forest, more than 20 wildfires have burned more than 17,000 acres and all of them are “being investigated for suspected arson,” federal forestry officials have said.
http://wncn.com/2016/11/12/nc-mountain-wildfires-exceed-23000-acres-as-6th-county-orders-evacuations/ (http://wncn.com/2016/11/12/nc-mountain-wildfires-exceed-23000-acres-as-6th-county-orders-evacuations/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 17, 2016, 06:54:03 AM
I have to say that image is a pretty well done hoax by the chinese. They've even put an american name and the ©-sign on it to fool the librul media. Same goes for other 'wildfires' reported in the south so no goverment aid is my recommendation.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: be cause on November 17, 2016, 10:39:22 AM
between the Chinese falsifying our satellite images of melting sea ice and photo-shopping fires in the USA .. are they the new Global warming scare-mongers ?
Why pmt .. just why ??? as in wtf ??
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 17, 2016, 10:47:17 AM
between the Chinese falsifying our satellite images of melting sea ice and photo-shopping fires in the USA .. are they the new Global warming scare-mongers ?
Why pmt .. just why ??? as in wtf ??

Figured the site lacks the other side of the story so provided some clues as to what it might look like.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Darvince on November 17, 2016, 12:57:34 PM
 ;D

On more serious note I have to wonder when it will hit one million acres burned... Week-out forecasts don't show much if any rain over the most affected areas, and particularly across Georgia.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 17, 2016, 07:56:05 PM
The linked Scribbler article is entitled: '“Surreal” U.S. Wildfires Should Not be Burning in Mid-November'.

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/11/17/surreal-u-s-wildfires-should-not-be-burning-in-mid-november/

Extract: "In Dallas, on November 16, the thermometer hit 88 degrees Fahrenheit, breaking a 95 year old record. In Ada, Oklahoma the mercury struck 85 degrees F. Further north in high-elevation Denver, temperatures soared to 78 F — punching through a 75 year old record.
Meanwhile, strange, out-of-season wildfires continued to burn from the U.S. South to North Dakota and New England. In Atlanta, smoke streaming out of nearby wildfires blanketed the city. Red-eyed residents were increasingly forced to don protective masks beneath the choking late-fall pallor. In Chattanooga, over 200 residents were hospitalized from smoke inhalation and shortness of breath
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Buddy on November 18, 2016, 03:28:10 AM
We're not supposed to get any real rain till Wednesday, and it is already bone dry here in Atlanta.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 25, 2016, 02:37:05 PM
Israel Vows to Punish 'Terrorism' Over Wildfire Raging Near Haifa
Upward of 60,000 were forced to evacuate their homes in Haifa and around 95 people have been treated for smoke inhalation after the fires tore across the country's north, center and parts of the occupied West Bank over the past three days.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-vows-punish-terrorism-over-wildfire-raging-near-haifa-n688256 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-vows-punish-terrorism-over-wildfire-raging-near-haifa-n688256)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: oren on November 25, 2016, 10:12:03 PM
Israel Vows to Punish 'Terrorism' Over Wildfire Raging Near Haifa
Regardless of the causes (probably mixed negligence and terrorism), the fires have been raging in multiple locations around Israel helped by very abnormal weather. A strong wind has been coming from the east, bringing with it extremely dry desert air. In Haifa yesterday humidity was 11% and wind speed was 52 km/h. Normally the rainy season should have started about a month ago, but this year there was almost no rain, and temps were anomalously warm. Many people realize this is not just random weather, but definitely affected by AGW.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 27, 2016, 02:48:21 PM
Wildfires tear across drought-stricken parts of Peru
Less rain due to climate change and last year's El Nino weather pattern have made the Amazon drier than usual, scientists have said
LIMA, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Wildfires have torn through more than 22,000 hectares (54,363 acres) of forest, protected areas and farmland in drought-stricken parts of Peru as the Andean country suffers one of its driest periods in years, authorities said on Thursday.

The spate of wildfires in the past week were likely started by accident after peasant farmers burned fields to prepare them for planting, said Edgar Ortega with Peru's Civil Defense Institute.

Strong winds fanned the flames that quickly crossed the Andean regions of Cajamarca and Lambayeque in northern Peru, which are experiencing prolonged droughts, Ortega said.
http://news.trust.org/item/20161125021941-23b4r/ (http://news.trust.org/item/20161125021941-23b4r/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 29, 2016, 05:04:06 AM
U.S.:  Ash is falling in downtown Gatlinburg, Tennessee, from multiple wildfires in the nearby forests.  High wind warnings are in place for much of the southeast, which is currently in severe drought conditions.

"Mandatory evacuations are underway for Gatlinburg and portions of Pigeon Forge. If you are in these areas, please follow instructions from local fire and police officials."
https://www.facebook.com/NWSMorristown/posts/1295920243772678:0 (https://www.facebook.com/NWSMorristown/posts/1295920243772678:0)

Fires force evacuations in Gatlinburg, TN; Smokies park closes roads
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/28/us/southern-fires-gatlinburg-smokies/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/28/us/southern-fires-gatlinburg-smokies/index.html)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 29, 2016, 08:52:25 PM
More on the Gatlinburg fire:

‘Worst possible conditions’: Thousands flee as flames engulf Tennessee resort towns
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/11/29/worst-possible-conditions-residents-flee-gaitlinburg-tenn-as-flames-lick-roads/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/11/29/worst-possible-conditions-residents-flee-gaitlinburg-tenn-as-flames-lick-roads/)


Edit: More:  150 Homes and businesses in Gatlinburg destroyed.  Burn victims hospitalized.
http://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/2016/11/29/3-gatlinburg-burn-victims-critical-condition-vumc/94599712/ (http://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/2016/11/29/3-gatlinburg-burn-victims-critical-condition-vumc/94599712/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 30, 2016, 01:44:16 AM
Eric Holthaus:  Exceptional (D4) drought in SE US (48,733 sq mi) now larger than drought in California (33,274 sq mi).
Gatlinburg, TN fires directly linked.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/803729038313287680 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/803729038313287680)

What a Warmer Future Means for Southeastern Wildfires
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/warmer-future-southeastern-wildfires-20912 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/warmer-future-southeastern-wildfires-20912)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 02, 2016, 03:25:52 AM
Giant Gatlinburg-Sized Wildfires May Be the New Normal
Since the 1980s, wildfires in the United States have exponentially increased in frequency and duration. According to a 2006 study published in Science journal, wildfire season has increased by nearly two months, with fires occurring nearly four times more often on a land area scale six times large, and lasting nearly five times as long.
http://observer.com/2016/12/giant-gatlinburg-sized-wildfires-may-be-the-new-normal/ (http://observer.com/2016/12/giant-gatlinburg-sized-wildfires-may-be-the-new-normal/)


11 Deaths Confirmed as Smokies Wildfires Devastate Tennessee
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/seven-deaths-confirmed-great-smokies-wildfires-spread-tennessee-n690311 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/seven-deaths-confirmed-great-smokies-wildfires-spread-tennessee-n690311)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Buddy on December 02, 2016, 02:09:05 PM
What a Warmer Future Means for Southeastern Wildfires

And this drought was an interesting one.  It really only started THIS SUMMER....it hasn't been going on for years.  It had only been going on FOR MONTHS.

What happens if we do get a longer drought again like we (I live in Atlanta) had several years ago where it was a drought that lasted for 2 or 3 years?

It's STILL mind boggling that we could have intense wildfires AT THE END OF NOVEMBER.  Crazy.  The "new normal" that we are continuing to face.

Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 06, 2016, 01:50:23 AM
Perspective: If Gatlinburg fires happened in California, they'd rank as the fourth most-damaging (1,700 structures) & fifth deadliest (14).
https://twitter.com/stevebowenwx/status/805785933580816384

(California fire data at the link.)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Archimid on December 18, 2016, 02:44:06 PM
Chalet Village Fire Gatlinburg Amazing "Escape From Hell" Full Length Video by Michael Luciano

https://youtu.be/cI2sgyoiL1o
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 23, 2016, 02:59:14 PM
Electrical Line in Tree Blamed in Deadly California Wildfire in late June
FRESNO, Calif. — An electrical line in a tree sparked a devastating summer wildfire in central California that killed an elderly couple and destroyed hundreds of homes, investigators said Thursday.

Insulation from the electrical line rubbed the tree and wore down over time, dropping hot, molten material into the dry grass below that sparked the fire, officials said.

The fire raced up a Lake Isabella hillside prone to burning, said Kern County Fire Chief Brian Marshall. But this year, firefighters couldn't stop the flames, which eventually scorched 75 square miles and turning 280 homes into tangled rubble. ...
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/electrical-line-tree-blamed-deadly-california-wildfire-n699406 (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/electrical-line-tree-blamed-deadly-california-wildfire-n699406)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: frankendoodle on December 28, 2016, 12:21:07 AM
My old laptop crashed last month and with it all the bookmarks I had which included nation and worldwide wildfire reports/maps.

Can anyone recommend a few sights for me? Google searches have proven disappointing.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: 1rover1 on December 28, 2016, 02:19:47 AM
My old laptop crashed last month and with it all the bookmarks I had which included nation and worldwide wildfire reports/maps.

Can anyone recommend a few sights for me? Google searches have proven disappointing.

Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center Sitrep:   http://www.ciffc.ca/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=25&Itemid=212 (http://www.ciffc.ca/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=25&Itemid=212)

Canadian Fire Smoke Forecast: http://firesmoke.ca/ (http://firesmoke.ca/)

American NIFC National Interagency Coordination Center Sitrep is linked from here:  https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/ (https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/)


Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: magnamentis on December 28, 2016, 06:41:10 PM
My old laptop crashed last month and with it all the bookmarks I had which included nation and worldwide wildfire reports/maps.

Can anyone recommend a few sights for me? Google searches have proven disappointing.

next to a backup at all times i recommend to at least import your bookmarks into google chrome from time to time ( backupwise or for use ) because they remain stored and simply sync on any machine and/or phone that is using your google account they were synced on.

i know it's OT but perhaps it helps you keep your data/bookmarks safe.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 28, 2016, 06:55:35 PM
U.S.:
http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/ (http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/)

http://wxshift.com/climate-change/climate-indicators/us-wildfires (http://wxshift.com/climate-change/climate-indicators/us-wildfires)

http://wildfiretoday.com (http://wildfiretoday.com)


Australia:
https://sentinel.ga.gov.au/#/ (https://sentinel.ga.gov.au/#/)

http://www.firenorth.org.au/nafi3/ (http://www.firenorth.org.au/nafi3/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 01, 2017, 05:26:49 PM
Australia:

ABC Emergency:  #VIC #Emergency #Bushfire Warning for #Tangambalanga #RedBluff #Kiewa. Fire is out of control. Take shelter indoors
https://twitter.com/abcemergency/status/815386941411586048
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Archimid on January 27, 2017, 08:47:36 PM
"Dante's Inferno" in Chile: All-Time National Heat Record Smashed by 6°F

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3548 (https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3548)

Extract:

Record heat and extreme drought in Chile are contributing to their worst wildfires in decades. On Thursday, the entire town of Santa Olga was destroyed by fire, with more than 1,000 building consumed including schools, nurseries, shops and a post office.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 12, 2017, 02:00:06 PM
Massive pyrocumulus cloud above a large wildfire in NSW, Australia.

Sir Ivan fire from Dunedoo #NSWRFS
https://twitter.com/robrfs/status/830699700764319745

See the Weird Weather thread for information on the current extreme heatwave in southeast Australia.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 12, 2017, 06:55:48 PM
Australia heatwave: Unprecedented fire conditions are 'as bad as it gets'
NSW is facing the "worst possible fire conditions" in its history with a "catastrophic" warning in place across large slabs of the state after a heatwave smashed temperature records on Saturday.

Rural Fire Service (RFS) Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons said the situation was as "bad as it gets" and warned it was set to get worse on Sunday when winds are expected to sweep through scorched parts of mid to northern NSW.
...
Commissioner Fitzsimmons said conditions in some parts of NSW could be worse than Victoria's Black Saturday fires, Australia's worst ever fire disaster which claimed 173 lives in 2009....
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/nsw-heatwave-unprecedented-fire-conditions-are-as-bad-as-it-gets-20170211-guarjl.html (http://www.smh.com.au/environment/nsw-heatwave-unprecedented-fire-conditions-are-as-bad-as-it-gets-20170211-guarjl.html)


(And to think the BOM added more colors to the high end of the temperature chart only a couple years ago....)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: DrTskoul on February 12, 2017, 09:17:04 PM
They will soon need more colors....
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 20, 2017, 01:58:50 AM
UPDATE: Major Forest Fire Consumes More Than 100 Acres In Ocean County, New Jersey, USA.
http://patch.com/new-jersey/manchester-nj/brush-fire-closes-route-539 (http://patch.com/new-jersey/manchester-nj/brush-fire-closes-route-539)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 08, 2017, 08:53:36 PM
"Latest wildfire estimates: At least 1.48 million acres burned this week in Texas (479k), Oklahoma (342k), & Kansas (659k) w/ fires ongoing."
https://twitter.com/severeplains/status/839507087176663040

"Impressive. Gusty winds behind this front are what's fanning massive wildfires in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Colorado."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/839563181102026752

Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Tor Bejnar on March 08, 2017, 09:37:17 PM
Stretch of Alligator Alley closed due to brush fires (http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/florida/sfl-alligator-alley-brush-fires-20170308-story.html)

This is in southern Florida, USA.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: DrTskoul on March 08, 2017, 11:16:38 PM
Not a good start...
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 19, 2017, 07:55:41 PM
"Very warm and dry conditions have been in place since last week, says Bob Henson of wunderground.com. Boulder topped out at 81 degrees (27°C) on Saturday, making it the second earliest 80-degrees reading on record."

Wildfire Near Boulder, Colorado, Prompts Evacuation of More Than 1,000 Homes
https://weather.com/news/news/colorado-boulder-sunshine-fire-evacuations


Edit: wind, temperature, humidity, fire danger maps at the llink.

NWS:  Strong winds, low humidities, and unusually warm temperatures are producing critical fire weather conditions in the South/Central Plains.
https://twitter.com/nws/status/843503190448521216
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 22, 2017, 01:01:03 AM
"U.S. sees furious start to the wildfire season http://buff.ly/2n9mXU4 (http://buff.ly/2n9mXU4) via @USATODAY"
https://twitter.com/climatenexus/status/844215804317122560 (https://twitter.com/climatenexus/status/844215804317122560)

Wildfires have charred a whopping 2 million acres across the U.S. so far this year, an area larger than the state of Delaware.

It's a gigantic number for so early in the season, roughly 10 times the average and also the most acres burned as of mid-March since 2006, according to spokeswoman Jessica Gardetto of the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho.

Many of the blazes have been massive grass fires in Oklahoma and Kansas, which have both set records for number of acres burned in March, Gardetto said....
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 14, 2017, 10:51:36 PM
Destructive and Deadly U.S. Wildfires Have Burned More Than Four Times the Average So Far in 2017
Wildfires have charred more than four times the average acreage to date in what has been a destructive and deadly start to 2017 in the United States.

Almost 2.2 million acres had been burned by 14,529 wildfires as of April 7, the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) reports. The area of land burned so far in 2017 dwarfs the 10-year average (2007-2016) of 434,696 acres for this point in the year, but the actual number of fires is close to the average of 13,731.
...
https://weather.com/news/weather/news/wildfires-united-states-2017-four-times-average
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 11, 2017, 02:14:29 AM
Southeast U.S.:  West Mims Fire burning in the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge near the Florida-Georgia border has now burned nearly 144,000 acres (58,275 hectares).

Dry pattern to offer no wildfire relief as West Mims Fire evacuations expand
As crews continue to battle the massive West Mims Fire, mainly dry weather will worsen the wildfire and drought situation across the Southeast into late May.

Severe to extreme drought conditions from southern Georgia through the Florida Peninsula has left the region a tinderbox since the beginning of the year.

The largest active fire in the region is the West Mims Fire burning in the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge near the Florida-Georgia border.

The blaze, which is only 12 percent contained, has grown exponentially to over 140,000 acres since being sparked by a lightning strike on April 6, according to InciWeb.

Mandatory evacuations were expanded on Tuesday to encompass the entire southern half of Charlton County, Georgia. ...
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/dry-pattern-to-offer-no-wildfire-relief-across-southeastern-us/70001631 (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/dry-pattern-to-offer-no-wildfire-relief-across-southeastern-us/70001631)

Fire crews can finally take offensive on West Mims Fire
http://jacksonville.com/news/georgia/2017-05-10/fire-crews-can-finally-take-offensive-west-mims-fire (http://jacksonville.com/news/georgia/2017-05-10/fire-crews-can-finally-take-offensive-west-mims-fire)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: jai mitchell on May 17, 2017, 07:10:19 PM
The entire Russian district of Siberia is under an official state of emergency.  It is only mid-may.

https://watchers.news/2017/04/29/massive-wildfire-engulfs-bubnovka-siberia-declares-state-of-emergency/

Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: bbr2314 on May 17, 2017, 08:45:06 PM
The entire Russian district of Siberia is under an official state of emergency.  It is only mid-may.

https://watchers.news/2017/04/29/massive-wildfire-engulfs-bubnovka-siberia-declares-state-of-emergency/
I don't want to say it with certainty, but I suspect this is being exacerbated by compounding year over year losses of permafrost. Winter doesn't help the situation either, with snowfall anomalies wayyyyyy above normal insulating the ground from cooling off, while every subsequent summer allows more heat to accumulate.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 22, 2017, 07:46:53 PM
Recent Florida wildfire status:

Florida On Fire: 125 Blazes, ‘Worst Wildfire Season in Years’
...
According to the Florida Forest Service, there were 125 active wildfires burning across the state on lands under its jurisdiction as of 7:30 a.m. [May 8]. The fires affected an estimated 31,154 acres. Twenty-seven of those fires, including Pasco’s Anclote Branch blaze, were deemed major, spanning 100 acres or more. State officials also reported there were four fires burning on federal lands in Florida. Those blazes span some 153,746 acres....
https://patch.com/florida/southtampa/florida-fire-125-blazes-worst-wildfire-season
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 06, 2017, 03:39:45 PM
The linked article indicates that fire could transform the Amazon forests this century

Le Page, Y., Morton, D., Corinne, H., Ben, B.-L., Cardoso Pereira, J. M., Hurtt, G., and Asrar, G.: Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-55, (https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-55,) in review, 2017.

http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2017-55/ (http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2017-55/)

Abstract. Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, common under current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Archimid on June 18, 2017, 02:43:44 PM
Huge forest fires in Portugal kill more than 60 people

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/18/portugal-more-than-20-people-killed-in-forest-fires (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/18/portugal-more-than-20-people-killed-in-forest-fires)

At least 62 people have been killed in huge forest fires in central Portugal, many dying in their cars as they tried to flee the flames.

Portugal’s prime minister, António Costa, described the blazes – which have injured dozens more people – as “the greatest tragedy we have seen in recent years in terms of forest fires”, and warned the death toll could rise. Three days of national mouring were declared.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Hefaistos on June 19, 2017, 09:59:32 PM
32 000 hectares ablaze in Siberia, near Irkutsk, and another 10 000 hectares at Baikal see.

http://tayga.info/134863 (http://tayga.info/134863)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 25, 2017, 12:47:32 PM
Inspecting the remaining sea ice off the Mackenzie Delta this morning, I couldn't help but notice lots of smoke:
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Thomas Barlow on June 27, 2017, 04:02:43 AM
Martians can see this smoke (Siberia) with a toy telescope.
From June 23 (still going today)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 27, 2017, 06:13:09 PM
Utah’s #BrianHeadFire has grown to the largest in the nation....
https://twitter.com/sean_breslin/status/879726619375661060

Utah's Brian Head Fire Now Largest Active Wildfire in U.S.; 13 Homes Burned
(Aticle also covers some other current western U.S. wildfires.)
https://weather.com/news/news/brian-head-fire-utah-latest-news
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 29, 2017, 07:52:29 AM
The linked article is entitled: "These NASA Images Show Siberia Burning Up"; and with continued global warming, these wildfires are expected to continue to increase in frequency & extent:

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/nasa-siberia-wildfires-21576 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/nasa-siberia-wildfires-21576)

Extract: "Siberian wildfire season is off and running with multiple blazes searing the boreal forest and tundra. It’s the latest example of the vast shifts happening to the forests that cover Siberia and the rest of the northern tier of the world as climate change alters the landscape.

Those forests are burning at a rate unheard of in at least 10,000 years due largely to rising temperatures. They contain vast reserves of carbon stored in trees and soil and when they burn, they send that carbon into the atmosphere. That creates a dangerous cycle of more severe wildfires and ever rising temperatures."
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Thomas Barlow on July 01, 2017, 09:14:44 PM
The vast area of Siberian fires appear to be marching NW, then NE.
Now within 1000 k of the Arctic Ocean.
(Siberian Sea is at the bottom)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 06, 2017, 02:34:09 AM
Breckenridge, Colorado, U.S.:

Rapidly expanding wildfire near Breckenridge threatens townwide evacuation
The fire jumped from 50 square feet to more than 20 acres in a matter of a few hours
Everyone in Breckenridge should be prepared to evacuate, official said late Wednesday afternoon.

...The fire is burning in an old growth forest of heavy timber including ponderosa pine.
http://www.denverpost.com/2017/07/05/wildfire-breckenridge-july-2017/ (http://www.denverpost.com/2017/07/05/wildfire-breckenridge-july-2017/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: solartim27 on July 09, 2017, 02:47:13 AM
From Weird Weather
Nearly 2,000 firefighters battling out-of-control wildfires in B.C.
Province in state of emergency as more than 7,000 people are forced from their homes


"A state of emergency remains in effect for all of B.C., giving the government special authority to respond to the fires. Such a state hasn't been declared province-wide since the summer of 2003, when 2,500 fires broke out."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-wildfires-1.4196204 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-wildfires-1.4196204)
Not looking to good up in Yukon / NW Terr either (Worldview 8 Jul)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 09, 2017, 07:52:33 PM
Oroville, California. (Yes, the site of flooding, back in February.)
Even from a distance, this looks scary as hell. 

"Amazing footage of #WallFire generating rotating #pyrocumulus convection column &extreme fire behavior.#CAwx #CAfire "
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mup5-RfADik

https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/884087525043654656
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Archimid on July 09, 2017, 08:47:37 PM
 I wonder for how long those particles will remain in the atmosphere? That looks like a lot of force.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 16, 2017, 07:07:44 PM
More sad news on the wildfire front:

"Echoes of Fort McMurray — Massive Wildfire Forces the Emptying of Another Canadian City"

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/07/16/echoes-of-fort-mcmurray-massive-canadian-wildfire-forces-the-emptying-of-another-canadian-city/

Extract: :"A little more than a year after a massive wildfire forced the full evacuation of Fort McMurray in Alberta, another set of extreme wildfires in British Columbia is again forcing major population centers to empty. In the region of Williams Lake and Cariboo City, 17,400 people have been forced to flee as a wildfire is threatening the major highway exiting the area. As the fire expands, another 27,000 in the broader province may also be asked to leave. This mass evacuation has been enough to empty large urban centers — turning them into ghost towns as fires rage through the surrounding countryside."
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 17, 2017, 11:58:20 PM
The linked reference, indicates that an increase in weather induced lighting strikes has driven major North American boreal forest fires:

Sander Veraverbeke, et. al. (2017), "Lightning as a major driver of recent large fire years in North American boreal forests", Nature Climate Change, 7, 529–534doi:10.1038/nclimate3329

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v7/n7/full/nclimate3329.html (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v7/n7/full/nclimate3329.html)

Abstract: "Changes in climate and fire regimes are transforming the boreal forest, the world’s largest biome. Boreal North America recently experienced two years with large burned area: 2014 in the Northwest Territories and 2015 in Alaska. Here we use climate, lightning, fire and vegetation data sets to assess the mechanisms contributing to large fire years. We find that lightning ignitions have increased since 1975, and that the 2014 and 2015 events coincided with a record number of lightning ignitions and exceptionally high levels of burning near the northern treeline. Lightning ignition explained more than 55% of the interannual variability in burned area, and was correlated with temperature and precipitation, which are projected to increase by mid-century. The analysis shows that lightning drives interannual and long-term ignition and burned area dynamics in boreal North America, and implies future ignition increases may increase carbon loss while accelerating the northward expansion of boreal forest."
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 18, 2017, 09:43:06 PM
Eric Holthaus:  Right now there are 20 large fires burning in California. Wildfires have burned 249% more acres than normal so far in California in 2017.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/887365869948612608
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Andre on July 19, 2017, 05:03:48 AM
More than 45,000 people displaced by B.C. wildfires

Evacuations prompted by wildfires in central B.C. are approaching record levels for the province, officials said Tuesday.

The total number of people displaced by the fires is now estimated at 45,806, according to Robert Turner, deputy minister for Emergency Management B.C.

"This number has changed fairly significantly in the past 48 hours and that has to do primarily with getting better information from local governments," Turner said.

"It's becoming one of the largest displacement events in the history of the province."


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-wildfires-tuesday-1.4210370 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-wildfires-tuesday-1.4210370)


Before and after satellite images of some affected areas:

http://globalnews.ca/news/3603427/b-c-wildfires-before-and-after-satellite-images-show-trail-of-destruction/ (http://globalnews.ca/news/3603427/b-c-wildfires-before-and-after-satellite-images-show-trail-of-destruction/)

Map of active wildfires in British Columbia:

http://governmentofbc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a1e7b1ecb1514974a9ca00bdbfffa3b1 (http://governmentofbc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a1e7b1ecb1514974a9ca00bdbfffa3b1)

Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 19, 2017, 06:35:23 PM
How Weeks of Downpours Sparked Wildfires in California
- Precipitation from the drought-busting winter has fueled fires
- Grass that greened valleys, hillsides, now is fuel to burn
Some 2,905 fires started between Jan. 1 and July 9, burning more than 68,129 acres on state and local lands, more than double the five-year average of 27,390 acres and the 30,574 that burned by the same date last year. When you throw in areas maintained by the U.S. Forest Service, the total acreage aflame or scorched across the state rises to 92,439 acres. Governor Jerry Brown declared an emergency in Santa Barbara County where two fires have forced people from their homes, threatened agriculture and could even sever major power lines and drive up electricity prices.

Transmission lines are ubiquitous in California, seemingly rising and falling over almost every hill. When one of those lines is cut, the supply is separated from its demand -- like last Thursday, when 1,000 megawatts of electricity coming in from Oregon were cut off from customers in California by a fire burning near the state line, said David Quinn, a power-market analyst specializing in California at Genscape Inc. in Boston. Or sometimes, Quinn said, power will be traveling from the southern part of the state to customers in the north when a fire interrupts the line. That’ll cause electricity prices at the destination to surge while the south finds itself awash in excess electricity.

Summer fires in California aren’t anything new, of course. Around this time of year the West in general tends to start burning, said Robyn Heffernan, a National Weather Service fire weather science meteorologist in Boise, Idaho.

What is new is that the numbers and intensity of fires seem to be rising, a consequence of climate change, Head said.

“They are much longer-burning, much hotter and much faster-spreading,” she said. “There are parts of California that don’t go out of fire season.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-18/rain-sparks-wildfire-outbreak-in-odd-weather-twist-in-california (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-18/rain-sparks-wildfire-outbreak-in-odd-weather-twist-in-california)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 19, 2017, 07:35:32 PM
The article title says it all: "Mariposa County fire doubles in size as flames force thousands to flee and threaten power to Yosemite":

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-detwiler-fire-mariposa-yosemite-20170719-htmlstory.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-detwiler-fire-mariposa-yosemite-20170719-htmlstory.html)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: J Cartmill on July 20, 2017, 01:44:35 AM
British Columbia smoke in the valleys

https://go.nasa.gov/2uKBwm4
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Forest Dweller on July 20, 2017, 01:33:04 PM
BC looks bad indeed.
Highlighted the carbon monoxide here in Yosemite, with 3 major hotspots in North America at the moment.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 21, 2017, 12:12:08 AM
July 20

States of Emergency in California and British Columbia from Raging Wildfires
One of the largest evacuations in British Columbia history is underway, thanks to 155 wildfires—including fifteen major wildfires that threaten populated areas—that have forced more than 45,000 people from their homes. According to CBC News, the number of evacuations is approaching the province’s record set in 2003, when 50,000 people were forced out of their homes by a wildfire near Kelowna. The Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre reported on July 19 that the nation was operating at the highest level of wildfire response, Level 5, and that international assistance would likely be needed, since “national resource levels are insufficient to meet occurring and anticipated wildland fire activity.” A state of emergency was declared for the province on July 7, and has been extended through the end of July....

Detwiler Fire threatens California’s historic town of Mariposa

A state of emergency was declared on Wednesday in Mariposa County, including parts of Yosemite National Park, as the Detwiler Fire doubled in size in just one day to encompass roughly 46,000 acres on Wednesday. The fire had expanded to 70,000 acres by Thursday morning, with just 10% containment, and 45 structures had already been lost, according to CalFire. The Merced Sun-Star reported that more than 3100 firefighters were being coordinated from an incident command post at the Merced County Fairgrounds. In the crosshairs of the spreading fire on Thursday was Mariposa, a Gold Rush-era town of about 2000 residents and 4000 structures. The town was almost completely evacuated on Wednesday....
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/states-emergency-california-british-columbia-raging-wildfires (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/states-emergency-california-british-columbia-raging-wildfires)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 27, 2017, 04:09:48 AM
Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur region;  St-Tropez.

France wildfires force mass evacuation
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40725294 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40725294)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: solartim27 on August 07, 2017, 08:08:51 PM
And now Greenland is burning, though it has happened before.
More pics here:  https://twitter.com/Pierre_Markuse/status/894461039609352192
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 07, 2017, 08:28:58 PM
Greenland burning:  see posts in Greenland 2017 melt... thread starting here (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2054.msg123633.html#msg123633).
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: solartim27 on August 07, 2017, 09:12:04 PM
Here's some historical data showing pixels with >30% confidence
From  https://twitter.com/StefLhermitte/status/894618860032331776 (https://twitter.com/StefLhermitte/status/894618860032331776)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: silkman on August 08, 2017, 12:08:02 AM
Siberia is ablaze again today. I believe Putin is down there somewhere.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 08, 2017, 04:50:25 PM
Here is an update on the wildfires continuing to burn in Greenland:

Title: "There’s a Wildfire Burning in West Greenland Right Now"

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/wildfire-burning-greenland-21686 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/wildfire-burning-greenland-21686)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 09, 2017, 11:05:22 PM
Ranching in this age of wildfires.

The Day the Fire Came
A tale of love and loss on the Texas Panhandle plains.
http://features.texasmonthly.com/editorial/the-day-the-fire-came/ (http://features.texasmonthly.com/editorial/the-day-the-fire-came/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Rippleillusion on August 11, 2017, 03:30:33 AM
Not that we don't deserve it, but were sucking in wildfire smoke here in Western Canada that's making the air worse than Beijing. The Wetcoast has received less than a mm of rain since June 18. Unbelievable. (but not really)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: DoomInTheUK on August 11, 2017, 12:15:03 PM
.... The Wetcoast has received less than a mm of rain since June 18....

A typo to cheer me up!  ::)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Bill Fothergill on August 11, 2017, 03:52:48 PM
.... The Wetcoast has received less than a mm of rain since June 18....

A typo to cheer me up!  ::)

That might not be a typo.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Left_coast#Definitions
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: oren on August 11, 2017, 05:21:46 PM
Surely not a typo from a poster from Vancouver.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 11, 2017, 05:58:23 PM
My, my, I learn something new every other day! ('Wet coast' today)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Rippleillusion on August 11, 2017, 07:19:48 PM
Haha sorry guys, its a common tongue in cheek way to refer to our area, but I realize posters from around the world obviously wouldn't be versed in our colloquialisms. Glad I cheered somebody up, because its brutal over here! The smoke is giving everybody headaches. Apparently we might get some rain this weekend, but overall this summer is just part of a trend of droughts in a traditionally very wet area.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 11, 2017, 07:33:08 PM
cross post:
The biggest fire continues to spread.  Image from Sentinel Playground August 8 (http://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel-playground/?lat=67.85690144960271&lng=-51.55319021665491&zoom=12&preset=CUSTOM&layers=B02,B08,B12&maxcc=100&gain=0.4&gamma=1.0&time=2015-01-01|2017-08-08&cloudCorrection=none&atmFilter=&showDates=false).  I'm showing the color bands choices. (8/8/17 image is latest.) Note scale in lower left corner.  (click if you like)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: DoomInTheUK on August 11, 2017, 10:19:31 PM
Rip - Ah, I understand - and fully approve of the phrase. From someone in the North West UK, I can fully sympathise with a wet climate, and I willing to bet the 'droughts' we get here are nothing to what you're going through. I hope you get some relief soon.

It's still making me chuckle just for the dichotomy.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: solartim27 on August 12, 2017, 06:22:09 PM
A good summary of the Greenland fire
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/earthmatters/2017/08/10/roundtable-the-greenland-wildfire/
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Csnavywx on August 12, 2017, 08:54:36 PM
BC fire situation is exceptionally bad. As of the 11th, they're up to 143 active fires (11 starts the previous day) with a season total of 646,000 ha (1.59M acres) burned in the province.

This includes the monster Elephant Hill fire, which is up to 125k ha (300k acres) in size.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 12, 2017, 11:29:40 PM
More wildfires in Oregon:

http://www.ktvz.com/news/lightning-sparks-several-new-wildfires-across-region/603262283 (http://www.ktvz.com/news/lightning-sparks-several-new-wildfires-across-region/603262283)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: longwalks1 on August 13, 2017, 05:36:41 AM
I was so stunned with all the smoke I saw and smelt in Winnipeg last year during the Womens Fifa Soccer, much from Alberta.  Slightly amazed at the smoke I notice via the moon in northern Iowa this year from further afield. 
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: miki on August 13, 2017, 06:06:32 AM
A New Zealand helicopter pilot fighting enormous wildfires in Canada says everyone works in an ''apocalyptic twilight'' amid the worst conditions he has experienced in 25 years.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/336767/canada-wildfires-apocalyptic-kiwi-pilot (http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/336767/canada-wildfires-apocalyptic-kiwi-pilot)

"In my experience and that of the pilots here, we've never seen anything like this.
''This fire will be going until the first snow, so once the weather conditions physically change into fall or winter, that's when the fire will technically be over.
''There's just so much of it, what we're doing right now is just trying to contain it."
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 14, 2017, 04:39:22 PM
Greece, Portugal and Corsica are also experiencing untamed wildfires:

Title: "Wildfires rage on untamed in Greece, Portugal and Corsica"

http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/French-summer-wildfires-ravage-over-2-000-11815849.php (http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/French-summer-wildfires-ravage-over-2-000-11815849.php)

Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Csnavywx on August 16, 2017, 03:25:52 AM
An extreme wildfire event has taken place in Northwest Territories, Canada with 1.19 million acres being burned in approx. one day. Robertscribbler has a good article up on it right now.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 16, 2017, 06:39:06 PM
Yesterday's Worldvie (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2017-08-15&z=3&v=-5499651.33112105,-3220843.0187364667,255228.66887895064,690836.9812635332)w image shows northwestern Canadian smoke.  Some of it clearly (sic!) going to the Arctic.  I expect today's image will be worse.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Neven on August 16, 2017, 10:31:15 PM
Wow. I had read the headlines, but hadn't seen the images yet. Impressive.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: wili on August 16, 2017, 10:47:08 PM
We have very smoky ground-level air here in Minneapolis, apparently from Saskatchewan fires, which are 10 times more widespread this year than normal...if there is a 'normal' any more...
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: wili on August 17, 2017, 01:28:38 AM
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/336767/canada-wildfires-apocalyptic-kiwi-pilot (http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/336767/canada-wildfires-apocalyptic-kiwi-pilot)

Canada wildfires 'apocalyptic'

A New Zealand helicopter pilot fighting enormous wildfires in Canada says everyone works in an ''apocalyptic twilight'' amid the worst conditions he has experienced in 25 years.

A couple amazing pictures and lots of good descriptions here.

See also: https://robertscribbler.com/2017/08/15/area-burned-in-severe-northwest-territory-wildfires-doubles-in-just-one-day/ (https://robertscribbler.com/2017/08/15/area-burned-in-severe-northwest-territory-wildfires-doubles-in-just-one-day/)

Area Burned in Severe Northwest Territory Wildfires Doubles in Just One Day
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 17, 2017, 04:38:47 AM
Today's Worldview (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2017-08-16&z=3&v=-5499651.33112105,-3220843.0187364668,255228.66887895064,690836.9812635332)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Yuha on August 17, 2017, 08:47:01 AM
Here's worldview images of the highest concentrations of fires.
The first image uses bands 7-2-1. The scale is 500m/pixel.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Mozi on August 17, 2017, 02:47:15 PM
Good grief... with fires like that, what is stopping the entire landscape from going up? Only the turning of the seasons, I suppose.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: nicibiene on August 19, 2017, 09:25:35 AM
Here is a nice NASA articles about the record smoke from Canada entering the Arctic, including nice links for further read.

“If and when the plume drifts over populated areas, it may turn day into night,” added Mike Fromm of the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory. “There’s that much aerosol in the air.”

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=90759&src=nha
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: P-maker on August 19, 2017, 03:13:16 PM
I told you so:

Smoke is not good for your health, neither in the 1990'ies, when the Tobacco Industry paid deniers to hide the truth, nor this summer, when a new NH pattern of wall-to-wall fires are trying to wreack havoc with the health of our Arctic ecosystems.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 19, 2017, 03:22:51 PM
The linked article provides a nice summary of what has been happening with Canada's wildfires over the past week and a half:

Title: "Canada's forests are on fire, and the smoke is so thick it's breaking records"

http://mashable.com/2017/08/17/canada-is-on-fire-smoke-record-arctic/?utm_cid=hp-r-1#40cC5rxJkqq7 (http://mashable.com/2017/08/17/canada-is-on-fire-smoke-record-arctic/?utm_cid=hp-r-1#40cC5rxJkqq7)

Extract: "Forests in Canada are ablaze, with 2.2 million acres going up in flames so far this year in British Columbia alone. These fires, and others in the Yukon and Northwest Territories, have been belching smoke into the air, in some cases up to 8 miles high."
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 19, 2017, 06:11:07 PM
The smoke above the Northwest Passage, but viewed from below:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2017/#comment-222890 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2017/#comment-222890)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 01, 2017, 01:43:24 PM
U.S.:  While the south and mid-section deal with rain, the west is record hot, and dry.

The desert near Burning Man festival is literally burning
RENO, Nev. — Despite the dust, the Burning Man party keeps going in the Black Rock Desert of northern Nevada.

The main route into Burning Man was closed Wednesday night because of a rapidly expanding wildfire but reopened Thursday. Bureau of Land Management officials said that area of Nevada 447, about 70 miles northwest of Reno on the edge of the Pyramid Lake Paiute Reservation, could close again.

High-voltage electric transmission lines already have been damaged in the fire, which ignited during a dry thunderstorm Thursday. The community of Empire, which has the last general store before participants make the drive to Burning Man, could be threatened in the future, according to the BLM.

The BLM spokesman, John Gaffney, said the lightning-caused Tohakum 2 Fire remained at more than 30,000 acres — almost 50 square miles — overnight. Officials have no word yet on when it will be contained. ...
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2017/08/30/wildfire-closes-main-route-between-reno-burning-man/619363001/ (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2017/08/30/wildfire-closes-main-route-between-reno-burning-man/619363001/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 02, 2017, 12:53:14 PM
“It’s not the typical nighttime fire behavior,” Stewart told KNBC-TV. “We’re using every resource we have.”

Los Angeles, California:

Burbank residents ordered to evacuate as 2,000-acre wildfire rages toward homes
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-brush-fire-verdugo-20170901-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-brush-fire-verdugo-20170901-story.html)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 02, 2017, 01:29:31 PM
California governor declares wildfire state of emergency
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1BD013 (http://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1BD013)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 02, 2017, 08:23:36 PM
 Los Angeles, California.

‘Unique’ La Tuna Fire Scorches 5,000 Acres in Verdugo Mountains, Becomes Largest Blaze in L.A. City History
http://ktla.com/2017/09/02/la-tuna-fire-scorches-about-3000-acres-in-verdugo-mountains-evacuations-remain-in-burbank-l-a/amp/ (http://ktla.com/2017/09/02/la-tuna-fire-scorches-about-3000-acres-in-verdugo-mountains-evacuations-remain-in-burbank-l-a/amp/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: wili on September 03, 2017, 07:08:51 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4625W-qXI0o (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4625W-qXI0o)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 03, 2017, 07:50:14 PM
La Tuna Canyon wildfire

More Than a Thousand Firefighters Battling Largest Wildfire In Los Angeles History
More than 1,000 firefighters continue to battle a wildfire that Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti called the biggest wildfire in the city's history.

At least 700 homes in Los Angeles, Burbank and Glendale remain under evacuation orders as the so called La Tuna Canyon wildfire threatens structures in the Sunland-Tujunga area of northern Los Angeles. At least three homes have been destroyed and one is damaged, according to the Los Angeles Fire Department.

"This is a slow burning, 'backing' fire (meaning it burns down hill) and we have resources at the base of the hills to defend homes," the Los Angeles Fire Department said Saturday afternoon in a press release. "When the fire encounters a canyon, it can accelerate and burn uphill. Yesterday the wind was erratic and we are watching closely to see what weather develops today." ..
https://weather.com/amp/news/news/los-angeles-wildfire-la-tuna-canyon-california.html


Largest wildfire in Los Angeles history forces hundreds to evacuate
https://mobile.twitter.com/i/moments/904288333613998080
Images and Videos.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: pileus on September 04, 2017, 02:20:13 AM
Everywhere we look, the world is overheated.

Wildfires continue to threaten homes and force evacuations in Eastern Washington, Oregon and British Columbia

https://mobile.twitter.com/seattletimes/status/904496866959732736
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: pileus on September 04, 2017, 05:10:21 AM
Striking image from the La Tuna fire.

Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Archimid on September 04, 2017, 02:40:48 PM

Fort McMurray wildfire finally extinguished after 15 months

http://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-finally-extinguished-after-15-months (http://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-finally-extinguished-after-15-months)

The fire — first spotted on May 1, 2016, before entering Fort McMurray two days later — was declared extinguished on Aug. 2, said Lynn Daina of Alberta Agriculture and Forestry.

At its height, the May 2016 wildfire burned an area of 589,552 hectares, or 5,895 square-kilometres.

Even after the fire was declared under control on July 4, 2016, embers burned throughout the area during the fall. As the days grew colder, it burned underground and remained there throughout winter.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 04, 2017, 03:49:58 PM
When will the record heat, wildfire danger end in the western US?
The heat wave that has shattered records and exacerbated wildfires across the western United States will continue into midweek, but relief is on the way for parts of the region.

The latest burst of heat brought the hottest conditions ever recorded in downtown San Francisco as the mercury soared to 106 degrees Fahrenheit on Friday, Sept. 1. The previous record of 103 was set on June 14, 2000.

Dozens more all-time and daily record highs were set from Los Angeles to Portland, Oregon, and Missoula, Montana, over the weekend.

The hot, dry conditions fanned the La Tuna Fire north of Los Angeles, which has charred over 7,000 acres and burned three homes since Friday, according to the Los Angeles Fire Department. This is the city’s largest wildfire in terms of acreage, Reuters reported.

California Gov. Jerry Brown issued a state of emergency declaration for Los Angeles County on Sunday due to the severity of the blaze.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/when-will-the-record-heat-wildfire-danger-end-in-the-western-us/70002636 (https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/when-will-the-record-heat-wildfire-danger-end-in-the-western-us/70002636)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2017, 12:47:42 AM
Incredible #wildfire smoke sweeping coast to coast today. #GOES16 (prelim, non-op) maps dense smoke from #Oregon thru #Montana to #Colorado.
https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/904837092005564416
GIF animation at the link.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Buddy on September 05, 2017, 05:04:10 AM
Wildfires are so bad in and around the Willamette Valley near Eugene, Oregon...that the Ducks had to move today's practice about 1 hour to the west of Eugene....to the Oregon coast.

Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2017, 09:28:28 PM
When we say the West is burning, this is what we mean:
Scores of huge fires ripping through tinder-dry forests, blanketing the US in smoke.
https://twitter.com/alexsteffen/status/905129440094519296
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 06, 2017, 09:34:35 AM
Not much info on South America but the situation seems equally bad.

Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 06:27:06 PM
After burning for months, Montana looks like a fiery apocalypse
https://twitter.com/wxshift/status/905454836396806144

there is so much smoke in Seattle, I took this picture without a filter...you can see sun spots
https://mobile.twitter.com/ohmetimothy/status/905455769381781504
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 01:28:07 AM
A wildfire is blackening Oregon's verdant Columbia Gorge, cutting a path of
devastation. Here's our full story:
https://t.co/WIP9vvKe2d

https://twitter.com/APWestRegion/status/905555158481895424
 Time lapse video at the link.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 02:55:12 PM
A large group of hikers on a popular trail became stranded.

Police Say Teenage Boy Suspected Of Starting Massive Oregon Wildfire
Police say they have identified a 15-year-old boy suspected of setting off fireworks that may have sparked a massive wildfire raging outside Portland, Ore.

"It is believed he and others may have been using fireworks which started the forest fire along the Eagle Creek Trail," Oregon State Police said in a news release.

Authorities say an investigation is still underway into the blaze that started Saturday and has so far consumed more than 30,000 acres of forestland, choking the air and raining down ash on the nearby metropolitan area. ...
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/09/06/548857077/teenage-boy-id-ed-in-oregon-wildfire-that-stranded-more-than-100-hikers (http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/09/06/548857077/teenage-boy-id-ed-in-oregon-wildfire-that-stranded-more-than-100-hikers)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 09:05:12 PM
U.S.:  Washington state.

These photos of golfers calmly finishing their games as wildfires rage in the background are totally real
https://twitter.com/weeddude/status/905864572380352512 (https://twitter.com/weeddude/status/905864572380352512)

These Photos Of People Golfing During A Massive Wildfire Are Extremely 2017
Definitely a metaphor.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/ishmaeldaro/wildfire-golfing-photos (https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/ishmaeldaro/wildfire-golfing-photos)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2017, 09:11:13 PM
Nice video on the Women in Wildfire Training Camp offered by @LosPadresNF  Application deadline 9/18!
https://mobile.twitter.com/CaFireScience/status/906230818330341376
Video at the link.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Grubbegrabben on September 13, 2017, 11:43:19 PM
I've been checking the CIFFC site from time to time to see what's up with the Canada wildfires. I just noticed that the burned hectares number has jumped a lot the last month. Also the 2016 numbers are gone (column zeroed out). Maybe just some simple mistake? However, the 2017 area burned seems a bit worrying.

View the "Today's sitrep" here http://www.ciffc.ca/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=25&Itemid=27 (http://www.ciffc.ca/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=25&Itemid=27). Numbers at the bottom of the report.

Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: ghoti on September 15, 2017, 07:27:56 PM
You can get the 2016 burned/burning number by date directly. For example 2016 up to Sept 15:

http://www.ciffc.ca/firewire/current.php?lang=en&date=20160915 (http://www.ciffc.ca/firewire/current.php?lang=en&date=20160915)

2016 had less than half of this year's burned area to this point.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: swoozle on September 16, 2017, 04:53:24 PM
Oooh, nice. I've been wondering how to do that.

Looking back a handful of years it is interesting to note that 2016 was a mild year overall, in spite of the Fort McMurray fire.
2015, 2014 and 2013 all had greater area burned than this year to date.

You can get the 2016 burned/burning number by date directly. For example 2016 up to Sept 15:

http://www.ciffc.ca/firewire/current.php?lang=en&date=20160915 (http://www.ciffc.ca/firewire/current.php?lang=en&date=20160915)

2016 had less than half of this year's burned area to this point.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Archimid on September 17, 2017, 05:55:09 PM
US wildfire costs exceed $2 billion, a record amid a year of extremes

http://www.sfchronicle.com/news/article/U-S-fire-costs-push-past-2-billion-a-record-12199292.php (http://www.sfchronicle.com/news/article/U-S-fire-costs-push-past-2-billion-a-record-12199292.php)

The wildfire season that has leveled hundreds of homes, closed roads and parks, and sent hazy smoke into major cities across the West has become the most expensive in U.S. history, officials said Thursday, marking another chapter in a year of brutal extremes linked to climate change.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2017, 08:47:19 PM
@DrWxologist: We are picking up smaller fires much more quickly w/ GOES-16 [satellite]. Can also use fire RGB for intensity info for partners. #NWAS17
https://twitter.com/cjschultz57/status/909849239622098945

One case study in [Kansas/Oklahoma], new GOES-16 satellite detected new wildfire 12 mins before the first 911 call reporting it.  Game changer. #NWAS17
https://twitter.com/MorganKIRO7/status/909849577943191552
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 02, 2017, 04:31:29 PM
The linked article discusses how climate change is making wildfires bigger and more frequent around the world:

Title: "Stark Evidence: A Warmer World Is Sparking More and Bigger Wildfires"

http://e360.yale.edu/features/the-evidence-is-clear-a-warmer-world-means-more-wildfires (http://e360.yale.edu/features/the-evidence-is-clear-a-warmer-world-means-more-wildfires)

Extract: "The increase in forest fires, seen this summer from North America to the Mediterranean to Siberia, is directly linked to climate change, scientists say. And as the world continues to warm, there will be greater risk for fires on nearly every continent.

“Evidence is becoming more and more overwhelming,” says Flannigan, that climate change is spreading fires around the world. Globally, the length of the fire weather season increased by nearly 19 percent between 1978 and 2013, thanks to longer seasons of warm, dry weather in one-quarter of the planet’s forests. In the western United States, for example, the wildfire season has grown from five months in the 1970s to seven months today.

The number-crunching now shows an increased risk for fire on nearly every continent, says Flannigan, though most of the work has focused on North America, where there is a larger pot of funding for such research."
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: solartim27 on October 09, 2017, 05:14:25 PM
This is as bad as it can get.  Massive fires developing overnight,  saw a video from 4 AM of hospital patients being evacuated.
http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/2-big-wildfires-prompt-evacuations-in-Napa-County-12262945.php (http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/2-big-wildfires-prompt-evacuations-in-Napa-County-12262945.php)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 09, 2017, 05:35:38 PM

The number-crunching now shows an increased risk for fire on nearly every continent, says Flannigan, though most of the work has focused on North America, where there is a larger pot of funding for such research."

The solution is fairly obvious. We need to cut the available funding for such research.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 09, 2017, 06:46:31 PM
Northern California has had fire weather warnings out for days.  Last night:

Incredible video of patients being evacuated from Kaiser Hospital in #SantaRosa #NapaFire
https://twitter.com/10NewsJason/status/917384517186330626 (https://twitter.com/10NewsJason/status/917384517186330626)
Video at the link.

Wildfires erupt overnight in wine country
http://wildfiretoday.com/2017/10/09/wildfires-erupt-overnight-in-californias-wine-country/ (http://wildfiretoday.com/2017/10/09/wildfires-erupt-overnight-in-californias-wine-country/)

Governor declares emergency as wildfires ravage Sonoma and Napa counties, forcing mass evacuations in wine country
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-napa-fires-20171009-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-napa-fires-20171009-story.html)

>1000 people evacuated as tens of thousands of acres burn in Napa & Sonoma County, Calif.
"It looks like Armageddon"
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/917424978412359682 (https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/917424978412359682)
Images below and at the link.

A ridge top burns behind a vineyard in Napa on Monday morning.
https://twitter.com/MicahGrimes/status/917422723764191232 (https://twitter.com/MicahGrimes/status/917422723764191232)

Last image below: fires visible on MODIS satellite.

Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 09, 2017, 07:03:36 PM
Several destructive wildfires have forced evacuations in Napa County & Sonoma County in California: (link: http://ow.ly/lpKX30fKvKY (http://ow.ly/lpKX30fKvKY))
https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/917427067691700225 (https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/917427067691700225)
Article, video, images at the link.  Image below.

Santa Rosa residents wake to widespread damage. #TubbsFire #JourneysEndPark
https://twitter.com/kurtisalexander/status/917411019961462784 (https://twitter.com/kurtisalexander/status/917411019961462784)
Video at the link.

Santa Rosa Police 30 minutes ago:  UPDATE: Evacuation map has expanded.
https://twitter.com/Santa_Rosa_PD/status/917426631802630144 (https://twitter.com/Santa_Rosa_PD/status/917426631802630144)
Map below.  More info at the link.

Approaching Kaiser in Santa Rosa, this is the smoke we see at Range & Bicentennial. @CBSSF
https://twitter.com/jackie_ward/status/917430851448725505 (https://twitter.com/jackie_ward/status/917430851448725505)
Image below.

9:30 am satellite w/ dense smoke plumes from multiple fires being spread by NE winds still locally gusting to 30 mph.
https://twitter.com/ggweather/status/917432669821997057 (https://twitter.com/ggweather/status/917432669821997057)
Satellite image below.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 09, 2017, 08:19:04 PM
Oct 8-9, 2017 Napa & Sonoma County fires: 1,500 structures burned so far, per @latimes
Among the worst in CA history
List:  http://www.fire.ca.gov/communications/downloads/fact_sheets/Top20_Destruction.pdf (http://www.fire.ca.gov/communications/downloads/fact_sheets/Top20_Destruction.pdf)

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/917452944223719425 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/917452944223719425)


Follow live: Fires burn across Napa, Santa Rosa and the North Bay
http://www.sfgate.com/local/amp/Follow-live-Fires-Napa-Santa-Rosa-Sonoma-counties-12263680.php (http://www.sfgate.com/local/amp/Follow-live-Fires-Napa-Santa-Rosa-Sonoma-counties-12263680.php)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 09, 2017, 08:45:59 PM
Southern California is on fire, too. There's a major, fast-moving fire in the hills outside Anaheim  #canyonfire2
     https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/917457017954078726

Flames already coming over the hill at the intersection of Santa Ana Canyon and Gypsum Canyon. These winds are pushing.  @ABC7 #Canyon2
https://twitter.com/abc7greg/status/917447856255934469
Image at the link.

This is the big one for Anaheim Hills headed in to cover
https://twitter.com/stuartpalley/status/917449457280491521
Image below.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 09, 2017, 09:12:42 PM
Wildfires now burning homes in Anaheim Hills, SoCal.
This is already one of the worst fire days in California history, and getting worse.
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/917466906793259010



Near total devastation Santa Rosa’s Coffey Park neighborhood where #TubbsFire reduced homes to ashes. [photos]: Melissa Comfort
https://twitter.com/passantino/status/917464496477822976
Images at link.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 09, 2017, 10:28:59 PM
A home burns in a fast-burning fire that prompted evacuations in the Anaheim Hills area on Monday. #CanyonFire2
https://twitter.com/KTLA/status/917465471707840512
Video at the clip. Aerial view.

Evacuations continue as #canyonfire2 in Anaheim Hills California grows to 500 acres.
@EPN564 providing live reports
Updates via @OCFA_PIO @AnaheimFire @CBSLA @R5_Fire_News @KNX1070 @CBSLA #CaliforniaWildfires #canyon2fire
https://twitter.com/EdJoyce/status/917479447732699136
Image below.
 
CanyonFire2
https://twitter.com/EPN564/status/917474505198469120
"Periscope" video of firefighters working a burning ridge near a street.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2017, 12:00:29 AM
Pyrocumulous cloud pops up above the inversion layer that is keeping smoke from California fires trapped near the ground.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2017, 12:04:16 AM
No words. Entire neighborhoods have been razed by the #napafire. Aerial images from @CHP_GoldenGate
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/917496399352270848
Additional image at the link.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2017, 12:31:44 AM
And previous years of drought killed millions of trees, then very wet winter caused strong growth of grasses and brush this spring.

Classic wildland fire pattern in California after 5 months of dry weather plus high pressure over Great Basin creating gusty warm dry winds.
https://twitter.com/ggweather/status/917511125629001728

Second image from The Weather Channel.

Edit:  ‘Diablo Winds’ spark historic wildfires in California wine country
https://grist.org/article/diablo-winds-spark-historic-wildfires-in-wine-country/
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2017, 12:57:56 AM
Satellite imagery showing extraordinary geographic extent of #NorthBay wildfires; still spreading; out of control. #AtlasFire #TubbsFire
     https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/917496942933852160

Updated North SF Bay fire map from NOAA fire mapping products.
     https://twitter.com/ggweather/status/917495294211665921
Image below.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2017, 03:55:57 AM
"In flood zones, real estate agents are required to tell you about flood hazard, but we don’t do that with fire hazard"

From 2016:

When spark meets sprawl: Building in wildlands increases fire risk
Wildfires, long considered a problem exclusive to the West, now threaten many other parts of the country as extreme weather becomes more commonplace and more people live in areas at risk for wildfire.
https://www.revealnews.org/article/when-spark-meets-sprawl-building-in-wildlands-increases-fire-risk/amp/ (https://www.revealnews.org/article/when-spark-meets-sprawl-building-in-wildlands-increases-fire-risk/amp/)

WUI map below from The Weather Channel.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2017, 03:28:06 PM
California wildfires still burning; the firestorm has killed at least 10 people and destroyed 1,500 structures across eight counties.
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-wine-country-santa-rosa-napa-fire-20171009-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-wine-country-santa-rosa-napa-fire-20171009-story.html)

Wow. This statement from @NWSBayArea is chilling. Yesterday's North Bay firestorm could displace 1991 Oakland Hills as the worst in memory.
  Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 
1035 PM PDT Mon Oct 9 2017
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/917740889631592450 (https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/917740889631592450)
Text image below.

#BREAKING #CanyonFire2: At least 24 structures (many homes) destroyed, 6,000 acres burned, 1,000 firefighters, only 5% contained. @NBCLA
https://twitter.com/WhitNBCLA/status/917707005246169088 (https://twitter.com/WhitNBCLA/status/917707005246169088)
Image below; brief video at the link.




Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2017, 03:31:19 PM
The #canyon2fire as viewed from Mount Wilson about 4am today. #canyonfire2 #orangecountyfire #lafd #ocfire #firefighters
     https://twitter.com/socalguitar/status/917730371030065153
Image below.

Latest Napa and Sonoma County large Fires per Cal Fire as of Tuesday morning.
     https://twitter.com/ggweather/status/917734592143962112
Image below.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 11, 2017, 09:04:22 PM
BREAKING: California fire official: 3,500 homes and businesses have been destroyed in deadly wine country wildfires.
     https://twitter.com/AP/status/918157714471211014

Wow. With 3,500 structures burned, the California fires are now officially the most destructive in state history.
     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/918164571742986240
     Image below.


NWS Bay Area: Updated Red Flag Warning and Wind Advisory Information for later today. VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER! #cawx #northbay #napa #sonoma
     https://twitter.com/nwsbayarea/status/918049797986226176
     Image below.

Dramatic footage shows a @sonomasheriff deputy driving through an advancing wildfire in Northern California cnn.it/2gblpso
https://twitter.com/cnn/status/918091473165475840
Brief video at the link.

Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Paddy on October 11, 2017, 10:41:58 PM
The most destructive in history and a long way from over yet.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 12, 2017, 04:03:57 PM
October fires in California:

Notice only 2 Oct. CA fires make the top20 list in terms of size, but many make the list in terms of deadliest. Testament to the fires speed
     https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/918422763580379137
Images below
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 12, 2017, 04:06:02 PM
California just finished its hottest summer in history — these record-breaking fires are no coincidence.
http://grist.org/briefly/californias-out-of-control-wildfires-are-officially-the-worst-in-state-history/amp/ (http://grist.org/briefly/californias-out-of-control-wildfires-are-officially-the-worst-in-state-history/amp/)
     https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/918222425329876992 (https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/918222425329876992)
Image below.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Bernard on October 12, 2017, 06:50:50 PM
Looking for example at this video taken by a drone
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxFHMNtQ3zg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxFHMNtQ3zg)

One thing I wonder is what are all those houses and buildings made of, to be leveled down to the ground in such a way by fire? If the structures were of brick and mortar, there would be some walls remaining. And side issue, what kind of pollutants are released by the burning of such materials (beyond CO2 of course)?

Comments on the video also wonder why/how buildings were leveled flat when neighbouring trees still stand with all their branches and leaves.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: ritter on October 12, 2017, 07:12:24 PM
No words. Entire neighborhoods have been razed by the #napafire. Aerial images from @CHP_GoldenGate
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/917496399352270848
Additional image at the link.

I lived in this neighborhood in the early 1990s. I'm still in Sonoma County and these fires have been devastating. We are finally getting the resources from around and out of state to get a hold of them. The intrusion into urban areas has been truly impressive in the worst meaning of the word. Thank you to our emergency responders, my best to those still under evacuation or beginning the process of rebuilding and sympathies to those who have lost life. I know people who have lost everything and friends that are still evacuated but families are safe. I am fortunate that my community is still intact. Sometimes, the delusion that we are in control of nature is totally shattered. Is it time to talk about climate change yet?
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Martin Gisser on October 12, 2017, 07:34:33 PM
Looking for example at this video taken by a drone
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxFHMNtQ3zg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxFHMNtQ3zg)

One thing I wonder is what are all those houses and buildings made of, to be leveled down to the ground in such a way by fire? If the structures were of brick and mortar, there would be some walls remaining. And side issue, what kind of pollutants are released by the burning of such materials (beyond CO2 of course)?

Comments on the video also wonder why/how buildings were leveled flat when neighbouring trees still stand with all their branches and leaves.

It's not the first fire where I thought: Those wooden (plywood...) houses are a major fire hazard and accelerant. Living trees don't burn that well.

In tightly spaced neighborhoods this can result in unimaginable fire storms. We have seen nothing yet.

Time to change the building codes. Perhaps mandatory sprinklers on every roof except brick houses.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 12, 2017, 07:43:55 PM
Mid-Thursday update.  Several of the fires have merged. The winds have eased a bit, but are expected to pick back up this weekend. 

NWS:  On Tuesday, our air quality monitors nearest the fires measured the highest PM 2.5 concentrations on record in the Bay Area since hourly monitoring began in 2009.

At least 24 dead in horrific California wildfires, hundreds missing
Firefighters were still battling 22 wildfires in multiple counties as of Thursday morning. Intensified by strong winds, the flames have charred more than 180,000 acres of land, damaged or destroyed at least 3,500 structures and forced nearly 20,000 residents to evacuate, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. ...
http://abcnews.go.com/US/thousands-flee-wildfires-ravage-california-23-killed/story (http://abcnews.go.com/US/thousands-flee-wildfires-ravage-california-23-killed/story)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 13, 2017, 12:40:53 AM
Looking for example at this video taken by a drone
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxFHMNtQ3zg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxFHMNtQ3zg)

One thing I wonder is what are all those houses and buildings made of, to be leveled down to the ground in such a way by fire? If the structures were of brick and mortar, there would be some walls remaining. And side issue, what kind of pollutants are released by the burning of such materials (beyond CO2 of course)?

Comments on the video also wonder why/how buildings were leveled flat when neighbouring trees still stand with all their branches and leaves.

It's not the first fire where I thought: Those wooden (plywood...) houses are a major fire hazard and accelerant. Living trees don't burn that well.

In tightly spaced neighborhoods this can result in unimaginable fire storms. We have seen nothing yet.

Time to change the building codes. Perhaps mandatory sprinklers on every roof except brick houses.

That fire melted guard rails.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Bernard on October 13, 2017, 11:40:15 AM
That fire melted guard rails.

Guard rails are made of aluminium, of which fusion point is around 660°C. This is not a surprising temperature for such a fire.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 13, 2017, 10:06:51 PM
Worst possible situation for those in the path of these fires at the onset.  No advance warning, unusually fast spread, late at night, no awakening by phone alerts which were not received because cell phone towers were disabled by the fire.

Death toll rises to 31, more victims identified in deadly Northern California fires
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-fires-20171013-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-fires-20171013-story.html)

Current fire map images:  Napa valley area.  Anaheim.

NWS Sacremento:  Very dangerous #fire conditions expected overnight tonight due to strong winds and ongoing fires. Please be prepared & aware! #CAwx
     https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento/status/918924763036356610 (https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento/status/918924763036356610)
Image below.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 13, 2017, 10:43:38 PM
That fire melted guard rails.

Guard rails are made of aluminium, of which fusion point is around 660°C. This is not a surprising temperature for such a fire.

My point is that wood ignites at temperatures between 190-260C. Sprinklers would not prevent houses from burning down unless the entire exterior of a home were doused.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Martin Gisser on October 13, 2017, 11:38:56 PM
That fire melted guard rails.

Guard rails are made of aluminium, of which fusion point is around 660°C. This is not a surprising temperature for such a fire.

My point is that wood ignites at temperatures between 190-260C. Sprinklers would not prevent houses from burning down unless the entire exterior of a home were doused.
Yes. Maybe not a workable proposal. But then, if you look at the little water "sprinkled" on burning forests from helicopters and tank planes, this doesn't look effective either. Evaporating water cools things.
-------------------

Watched some more videos:
Almost everywhere there was a gas pipe still burning in the ruins. Why couldn't they shut off the gas when the fire approached? But I guess this wasn't a major factor.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 14, 2017, 03:30:04 AM
<snipped>

Watched some more videos:
Almost everywhere there was a gas pipe still burning in the ruins. Why couldn't they shut off the gas when the fire approached? But I guess this wasn't a major factor.

When you are running for your life, stopping to shut off the gas is the last thing on your mind.  The fire was literally at many people's doorsteps when they were awakened.  Some were trapped inside their homes by the flames.

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-wine-country-santa-rosa-napa-fire-20171009-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-wine-country-santa-rosa-napa-fire-20171009-story.html)

http://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/amp/Sonoma-County-officials-opted-not-to-send-mass-12271773.php (http://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/amp/Sonoma-County-officials-opted-not-to-send-mass-12271773.php)

https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/fight-against-california-wildfires-enters-new-phase-search-bodies-n810281 (https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/fight-against-california-wildfires-enters-new-phase-search-bodies-n810281)

http://www.latimes.com/local/abcarian/la-me-abcarian-sonoma-fire-20171012-htmlstory.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/abcarian/la-me-abcarian-sonoma-fire-20171012-htmlstory.html)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 14, 2017, 03:32:41 AM
SONOMA, Calif. (AP) — Fire official says 5,700 homes and buildings destroyed, 90,000 people displaced by Northern California wildfires.
     https://twitter.com/JWilliamsAP/status/918972176417431552

Not sure I’ve ever seen air quality this bad in the US
     https://twitter.com/passantino/status/918996324254588928
Image below.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Martin Gisser on October 14, 2017, 04:41:02 AM
When you are running for your life, stopping to shut off the gas is the last thing on your mind.
Of course. It should be the job of the utility company. Maybe its not as easy as it looks.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 15, 2017, 04:26:04 AM
LA. Times puts the death toll at 40.

In California, Fires So Fast Hesitation Proved Lethal
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/13/us/california-wildfires-victims.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/13/us/california-wildfires-victims.html)

California fires: New evacuations ordered for Santa Rosa
The blaze threatening Santa Rosa was a new fire that erupted Friday along state Highway 12 between two other wildfires that have been burning for days.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/14/us/california-fires-updates/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/14/us/california-fires-updates/index.html)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Martin Gisser on October 15, 2017, 02:55:43 PM
http://www.pnas.org/content/113/42/11770.abstract (http://www.pnas.org/content/113/42/11770.abstract)
Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests
John T. Abatzoglou and A. Park Williams
PNAS 2016

[...]
We demonstrate that human-caused climate change caused over half of the documented increases in fuel aridity since the 1970s and doubled the cumulative forest fire area since 1984. This analysis suggests that anthropogenic climate change will continue to chronically enhance the potential for western US forest fire activity while fuels are not limiting.
[...]

Short interview with Park Williams:
https://www.democracynow.org/2017/10/11/as_deadly_wildfires_rage_in_california (https://www.democracynow.org/2017/10/11/as_deadly_wildfires_rage_in_california)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: gerontocrat on October 15, 2017, 03:44:31 PM
This is an extract from a post on The Trump Presidency by Sigmetnow who found it on facebook
I reproduce it in full as I think it is necessary to give it as wide a circulation as possible.

"We are safe in a hotel for another night. Well, those who know me knew my silence on the politics involved here would not last long. If it bothers you, I understand but it's time to say this. I just watched a man on television describe how his wife died in his arms in Santa Rosa and a mother in tears recounting her son succumbing to the flames in their driveway while trying to escape. People have been burned alive. A women who barely survived the carnage in Las Vegas lost her house. A woman in a wheelchair was waiting to die until a brave sheriff's officer risked his life to save her. Rescuers are finding bodies burnt beyond recognition; other reduced to bones and ash. So far, 36 people have lost their lives, 100,000 people have been evacuated trying their best to find shelter and almost 6,000 structures have been totally destroyed. People are enduring unimaginable circumstances. Also, there is no telling how many pets and wildlife didn't make it. No one can really imagine what this hell is like.

Not that I really care what he says or does, but Trump has not tweeted one word, made a speech, or shown any compassion at all for the victims of the California wildfires. Nothing. Zero. Worthless liberal heathens that we are and not as deserving as the dead red states of Texas and Florida. Are the dead in California less dead? Are their destroyed homes homes not a big deal? Are 100,000 refugees just a statistic? Others do care what the president says and his silence is deafening. If nothing else, the incredibly courageous and selfless firefighters, police, pilots, doctors, nurses and other civil servants deserve thanks and acknowledgment.

Finally, anyone who respects the educated professionals whose lives have been devoted to studying the earth and it's climate, understands that the warming earth and oceans increases the severity of nature's worst tragedies. Like fires, hurricanes and tornadoes as any American could see with their own eyes this year. Warm waters, torrential rains, overgrown brush, excessive heat, severe droughts and hurricane force winds are all a result. This is going to happen again and again as the Trump administration and their GOP and corporate enablers continue to dismantle all efforts aimed at slowing or reversing climate change. This is the new reality."

https://www.facebook.com/johnehrenfeld125/posts/10210572506853761 (https://www.facebook.com/johnehrenfeld125/posts/10210572506853761)

There is nothing more to say really, is there.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 15, 2017, 04:38:34 PM
Communication.

This is what Californians really needed during the fires
...
By late Monday morning, hordes of people in packed cars were headed north, many with no certainty where they were going. In Healdsburg, normally a 20-minute drive from Santa Rosa, but then more than an hour in traffic, the lines for gas stations spilled out into the street and many stations ran out of fuel. The delivery trucks couldn't help because the fire had spread across the highway and shut it down. I could tell who the evacuees were, but it didn't take a reporter's eye. It was obvious. Their cars were packed with belongings (if they were "lucky"), and their eyes were red from smoke, being woken up in the middle of the night, and crying. They appeared in the pharmacy, clutching deodorant, toothpaste, slippers — there was never much, because, where do you start when you lose everything? They filled hotel parking lots, meandering, hoping for a room, or rifling through possessions they'd managed to take. I heard, "my house is gone," more times than I can count.

Communication — or lack of it — during the disaster may be the biggest rub. Oddly, in a city so close to Silicon Valley, the birthplace of thousands of apps that make it easier to get everything with a smartphone (weed, lunch, laundry and a million hardly useful things that I won't mention here), there's been no one good way to share reliable information. In part, that was because many people didn't have cell service and Internet was cut off for many customers.
...
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/10/12/opinions/californians-needed-fire-alerts-kerr-opinion/index.html
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Alexander555 on October 15, 2017, 04:53:52 PM
Gerontocrat: Trump is just one person. And the entire global political and economic elite are against him. Don't you think it's a little hard to blame him for everything. Why are the globalists not helping Puerto Rico. Are they not the managers of the "one world ideology". And they can't even handle a small island like Puerto Rico. And it's not just the wildfires in California, you had 3 hurricane landfalls, floodings, earthquakes in nearby Mexico. And this morning i was reading a little bit about the pasific typhoon season. In 2015 they had the first typhoon on january 15 , and last one of the year on december 17. That's almost typhoons around the clock. So if your globalists buddies can't even handle it today, they will have very little friends left in the future.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 15, 2017, 05:23:29 PM
The linked article uses wildfires in the Amazon as a canary in a coal mine to indicate that the rainforests have turned from carbon sinks to carbon sources:

Title: "Record Amazon fires stun scientists; sign of sick, degraded forests"

https://www.skepticalscience.com/2017-SkS-Weekly-News-Roundup_41.html (https://www.skepticalscience.com/2017-SkS-Weekly-News-Roundup_41.html)

Extract: "- With the fire season still on-going, Brazil has seen 208,278 fires this year, putting 2017 on track to beat 2004’s record 270,295 fires. While drought (likely exacerbated by climate change) worsens the fires, experts say that nearly every blaze this year is human-caused.

- The highest concentration of fires in the Amazon biome in September was in the São Félix do Xingu and Altamira regions. Fires in Pará state in September numbered 24,949, an astonishing six-fold increase compared with 3,944 recorded in the same month last year.

- The Amazon areas seeing the most wildfires have also seen rapid change and development in recent years, with high levels of deforestation, and especially forest degradation, as loggers, cattle ranchers, agribusiness and dam builders move in.

- Scientists warn of a dangerous synergy: forest degradation has turned the Amazon from carbon sink to carbon source; while globally, humanity’s carbon emissions are worsening drought and fires. Brazil’s rapid Amazon development deepens the problem. Researchers warn that mega-fires could be coming, unless trends are reversed.

See also the associated article at:

https://news.mongabay.com/2017/10/record-amazon-fires-stun-scientists-sign-of-sick-degraded-forests/ (https://news.mongabay.com/2017/10/record-amazon-fires-stun-scientists-sign-of-sick-degraded-forests/)

Extract: "While in the past Amazonian forests served humankind inadvertently by absorbing more carbon than emitted, delaying the worst impacts of global warming, Feldpausch says that has now changed. The Amazon has now become part of the problem: “The combined effect of continued droughts, fire, and forest degradation is reducing carbon stocks, resulting in Amazon forests being an estimated net source of carbon during the past decade.”

Indeed, a new, just published study by researchers at the Woods Hole Research Center and Boston University, has found that human-caused deforestation, forest degradation and disturbance of tropical forests in Africa, the Americas and Asia have resulted in those forests now emitting more carbon into the atmosphere than they sequester on an annual basis."
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: gerontocrat on October 15, 2017, 05:44:39 PM
Gerontocrat: Trump is just one person. And the entire global political and economic elite are against him. Don't you think it's a little hard to blame him for everything.
I believe that he does not care. That is the basic criticism - "frankly, my dear, he does not give a damn" for anything but himself
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Alexander555 on October 15, 2017, 07:09:15 PM
I think that's a little bit a stupid critic, because who don't has some self preservation in hisself . Over here these so called socialist politicians even steal from the homeless. But one thing is for sure, he made me smile already many times. Not many politicians ever achieved that. And if you talk about good politics, just look at the news, you think that's the result of good politics.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 15, 2017, 08:08:04 PM
California fire response.

Sobering footage by @BerkeleyFD from strike team sent to #TubbsFire in #SantaRosa following main fire front. #CAfire
    https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/919620116492386305

Video: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Rdk4d74j3p8&feature=youtu.be
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 16, 2017, 04:19:55 AM
SKY7 showing the immense amount of smoke coming from the #NunsFire this evening. Poor Air Quality continues in the North Bay.
     https://twitter.com/DrewTumaABC7/status/919722590523944960
Image below.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: wili on October 16, 2017, 04:35:51 AM
It's gonna take a miracle...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CoN9PyoU80 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CoN9PyoU80)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Martin Gisser on October 16, 2017, 05:25:35 AM
Video: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Rdk4d74j3p8&feature=youtu.be
At 4:12 there is an aerial image of how it was before: High density wooden houses, perfect fuel for a huge conflagration :(
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: MrVisible on October 16, 2017, 01:56:38 PM
Climate change blamed as EU's forest fires more than double (http://www.euronews.com/2017/10/16/how-europe-s-wildfires-have-more-than-trebled-in-2017)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Martin Gisser on October 16, 2017, 02:38:48 PM
Portugal:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DMNR1gfUMAEKQGp.jpg)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DMNdvJKUQAA1Psj.jpg)

From https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 16, 2017, 04:19:34 PM
When you look at these hellish images and review the trends for forest fires across the planet, how soon can we expect to be subjected to a persistent living hell?

The fires in northern California were essentially unstoppable, overwhelming our widespread yet totally insufficient response. When will the world essentially be on fire and how in the world can we possibly quell them?
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 16, 2017, 04:31:40 PM
We need better trolls, the kind that can stay on topic.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 16, 2017, 05:16:12 PM
Hurricane Ophelia winds feeding wildfires in Spain and Portugal today.

Exceptional view of *THICK smoke* from fires in N Spain and Portugal being advected N into France and the UK! Image: NASA Terra / MODIS
https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/919938832568672257 (https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/919938832568672257)
Image below.

Portugal and Spain wildfires: Dozens dead and injured
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41634125 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41634125)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Martin Gisser on October 16, 2017, 05:52:42 PM
More pics from Portugal. I find them weirdly beautiful :(

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DMQgOTgXcAUcdZA.jpg)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DMQmz48W0AMgJpH.jpg)

https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 16, 2017, 07:06:54 PM
MOPITT’s carbon monoxide data (tracer for pollution from #wildfires + more) now avail in near-real-time   https://earthdata.nasa.gov/mopitt-data-now-available-in-lance

https://twitter.com/AtmosNews/status/919968118486814720

Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 17, 2017, 03:24:34 AM
@climateguyw The first image produced 103° heat. What will the second (occuring next week) bring? Temps may be 5° above daily record.
    https://twitter.com/edgarrmcgregor/status/920079728542752768
Images below.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: TerryM on October 17, 2017, 04:58:16 AM
Martin
They may be beautiful, but they are as terrifying as anything I've seen.
Terry
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Paddy on October 19, 2017, 07:02:43 AM
Portuguese interior minister resigns as fires kill more than 100 people (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/19/portugal-interior-minister-resigns-wild-fires-dead)

On Sunday, a series of deadly wildfires broke out in the centre and north of the country which killed 42 people and injured another 71, the civil protection agency said.

Similar huge blazes in June killed 64 people and injured 250 near the central Pedrogao Grande region, in what were the deadliest wildfires in the country’s history.

In all, some 280,000 hectares (690,000 acres) of forest in Portugal’s central Pinhal interior region have been laid waste so far this year in the country’s worst natural disaster in living memory, according to European monitors.


EDIT: Firefighting aircraft despatched from Italy to assist Portugal. (http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_STATEMENT-17-3968_en.htm)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 19, 2017, 07:13:18 PM
California:

Updated statewide wildfire map as of this morning
#NorthBayFires #BearFire
     https://twitter.com/NWSBayArea/status/921059662358810625
Image below.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 20, 2017, 03:41:00 AM
Last year, half of the fire acreage burned in all of Europe lay in Portugal—a country with just 3% of Europe’s land
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/921177904611983360

Europe’s hurricane-fueled wildfires might become a recurring nightmare
With its vast forests and typically warm and dry summers, Portugal is already Europe’s wildfire capital. And in recent decades, its profound and unique socioeconomic vulnerability to fire has only grown. Last year, half of the fire acreage burned in all of Europe lay in Portugal — a trend attributed both to haphazard forestry practices and climate change bringing hotter and drier weather.

This year, the sheer scale of the fires has been staggering. On Sunday alone, wildfires burned at least 300,000 acres — more than is normally burned in an entire year. Smoke from the fires quickly spread as far away as London.
...
“It really is a textbook example of wildfire as a socio-natural hazard,” José Miguel Pereira, a forest ecologist at the University of Lisbon tells Grist via email. Or to put it another way, human activity is making wildfires worse. These infernos are a product of our disregard for the fact that nature is now almost entirely something we’ve created — these disasters aren’t natural. ...
http://grist.org/article/europes-hurricane-fueled-wildfires-might-become-a-recurring-nightmare/
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: ritter on October 20, 2017, 06:30:27 PM
If anybody would like a view of the structures we've lost from the fires here in the north Bay Area, this is an excellent map.

http://calfireforestry.maps.arcgis.com/apps/PublicInformation/index.html?appid=5bbcbed430ad45e5a38e6be155ef5fec (http://calfireforestry.maps.arcgis.com/apps/PublicInformation/index.html?appid=5bbcbed430ad45e5a38e6be155ef5fec)

Fortunately, we haven't had to endure a "presidential" visit and have paper towels thrown at us.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 20, 2017, 08:01:28 PM
Wow.
All 10 of California’s worst fires have now happened since 1991-Oakland Hills.
Tubbs Fire, which partly destroyed Santa Rosa, is now #1
     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/921434044914634752

CAL FIRE PIO:  As damage assessment of the #CAwildfires continues, 8,400 structures were destroyed, many have made the Top 20 Most Destructive List.
     https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/921407668354351105
Image below.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 23, 2017, 05:12:57 PM
CAL FIRE PIO:  California Statewide Fire Summary (10/22)
10 large fires
6,000 firefighters
8,400 structures destroyed
42 fatalities
http://www.fire.ca.gov/current_incidents
     https://twitter.com/CALFIRE_PIO/status/922113606065385477
Image below.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 29, 2017, 08:21:01 PM
Why were California's wine country fires so destructive?
https://theconversation.com/amp/why-were-californias-wine-country-fires-so-destructive-86043
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: TerryM on October 29, 2017, 09:37:29 PM
Why were California's wine country fires so destructive?
https://theconversation.com/amp/why-were-californias-wine-country-fires-so-destructive-86043 (https://theconversation.com/amp/why-were-californias-wine-country-fires-so-destructive-86043)


I think Pruitt's New EPA would approve your link for publication.  :'(
Terry
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 30, 2017, 04:21:02 PM
California Statewide Fire Summary (10/30)
5 large fires
1,000 firefighters
8,900 structures destroyed
43 fatalities
http://www.fire.ca.gov/current_incidents

    https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/925018818165878785
Image below.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 04, 2017, 12:01:28 AM
It's December, so that of course means Southern California is facing a major wildfire threat this week.
Hurricane force wind gusts + one of the driest ever starts to the rainy season = Extreme fire threat

NWS Los Angeles: Potential #SantaAnaWind impacts Mon-Thu include extreme fire danger, downed trees/powerlines, blowing dust, and power outages. #LAwind #LAWeather #Socal

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/937455047302148096


"Extremely critical" fire weather alert--the highest possible risk--just issued by NOAA for Santa Monica Mts. area for Monday. Serious stuff.
https://twitter.com/bhensonweather/status/937372718898360321
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 04, 2017, 12:17:49 AM
Wildfire season is now year-round in California.
"Potential for the strongest and longest duration Santa Ana event so far this season"
     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/937460345160990721
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: solartim27 on December 05, 2017, 08:08:15 AM
And so it begins.  Posted at 7 pm, by 11 pm it is up to 10,000 acres.
http://ktla.com/2017/12/04/fast-moving-brush-fire-in-santa-paula-area-burns-50-acres-amid-red-flag-conditions/
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: gerontocrat on December 05, 2017, 02:40:16 PM
And so it begins.  Posted at 7 pm, by 11 pm it is up to 10,000 acres.
http://ktla.com/2017/12/04/fast-moving-brush-fire-in-santa-paula-area-burns-50-acres-amid-red-flag-conditions/

Latest from the GUARDIAN-
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/05/rapidly-spreading-california-wildfire-thousands-homes

Nearly 8,000 homes have been evacuated in southern California after ferocious winds whipped up an explosive wildfire that could soon threaten a city of more than 100,000.

The blaze broke out on Monday evening east of Santa Paula, which is about 60 miles north-west of Los Angeles. It grew to more than 100 sq km (40 sq miles) by the early hours of Tuesday, consuming vegetation that has not burned in decades, the Ventura county fire sergeant Eric Buschow said.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Alexander555 on December 05, 2017, 04:39:24 PM
http://www.breitbart.com/california/2017/12/05/fire-forces-27000-evacuate-ventura-dry-winter-looms/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: solartim27 on December 05, 2017, 05:21:20 PM
As of 8 AM the Thomas fire is at 45,000 acres, no containment, may stop when it reaches the ocean.  Good map from the VCFD here
https://twitter.com/VCFD_PIO/status/938060292843487232?s=17
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: solartim27 on December 05, 2017, 06:21:30 PM
Thermal satellite imagery loop
https://twitter.com/bill_line/status/938095085396180992
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 05, 2017, 07:20:34 PM
“Within a few hours, the fire jumped to thousands of acres as Santa Ana winds, blowing as fast as 40 to 60 mph, carried its embers. The fire engulfed dry chaparral and climbed through steep terrain.”

Southern California fire is 'out of control,' forcing thousands to evacuate
By early Tuesday, the fire was burning at a rate of nearly an acre [0.4 hectares] per second. At that speed, it would have covered Manhattan's Central Park in about 15 minutes.

• About 27,000 people were under mandatory evacuation in Ventura County as fire officials warned the powerful winds could push flames further into the city of Ventura.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/05/us/ventura-county-fire-california/index.html
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: GeoffBeacon on December 05, 2017, 07:33:03 PM
I got an answer from the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/carbon-budgets-a-straightforward-answer-from-decc/) just before the department was abolished:

That’s correct, the models used vary in what they include, and some feedbacks are absent as the understanding and modelling of these is not yet advanced enough to include. From those you raise, this applies to melting permafrost emissions, forest fires and wetlands decomposition.
(my emphasis)

I've  also been following the Global Carbon Project on  wildfires and their carbon emissions (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/img/global-carbon-budgets-and-wildfires/). The Global Carbon Project's Global Carbon Budget 2017 (http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/17/files/GCP_CarbonBudget_2017.pdf) has this image:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.brusselsblog.co.uk%2Fimg%2FGCP_wildfiresEnd2016.jpg&hash=95327b41c4fce8d412f0bb1b238dd487)

Does anyone know how bad this season will be?

Have the models (CMIP6?) taken proper account of wildfire increases?

Are wild fires a big deal for the climate or not?
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 05, 2017, 09:56:07 PM
The southern California wildfire showing up nearly as bright if not as bright as the city lights of Los Angeles.

Nighttime satellite imagery clearly highlights the explosive growth of the #ThomasFire in #SoCal (comparison from the night before). Latest estimates have it at 31,000 acres. #CAFire #cawx
https://mobile.twitter.com/nwssacramento/status/938083463349112833
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 05, 2017, 10:03:45 PM
So far in 2017, wildfires have scorched some 1,700 square miles [4,400 sq km ] in California, an area larger than the state of Rhode Island. 
[Data:  http://cdfdata.fire.ca.gov/incidents/incidents_stats?year=2017 ]

https://twitter.com/usatodayweather/status/938120003559321603
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Bruce Steele on December 06, 2017, 03:08:31 AM
Last night I got a phonecall about a power outage in Santa Barbara. I put the post on the wrong thread
before I realized a fire had caused the outage. Daybreak I could see the smoke 80 miles away and by this afternoon there was smoke and bad air conditions. Freezing temperatures and inverted atmospheric conditions seem to be shoving the smoke to the ground here in the Santa Ynez Valley.
Feels kinda funky to breath .
 We have been in a unrelenting drought in Ventura and  Santa Barbara counties. Yes we got average rains here last winter but it in no way stopped the tree die off that has taken out millions of live oaks on Southern exposed hillsides. It has to contribute to the ferocity of these fires , dead dry oaks burning differently from live ones. The live oaks will often survive fast burning fires and produce new leaf come spring. I expect the heat of burning all that dead wood will result in extra live oak mortality on the Southern exposed hillsides.
 We expect fires during Santa Ana conditions. Living in the canyons , in oak habitat , comes with risks.
I live in the flatlands by the river on agriculture land. It never , well never in the seventeen years I've lived here, blows Santa Ana here where I live. It does however freeze under these conditions and today I was fixing freeze damage on hoses that popped late night.
 We need rain
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 06, 2017, 04:10:26 AM
Bruce Steele wrote:  “We expect fires during Santa Ana conditions.“

People can see the increase in dry vegetation and address the elevated danger in their back yards, so to speak... but I imagine it’s difficult to foresee Santa Ana conditions which are suddenly stronger, and last longer, than has been the norm up to now.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 06, 2017, 04:27:49 AM
“About a dozen people at the fairgrounds shared similar stories: smelling and then seeing a roaring red gleam approaching so quickly that they barely had time to grab belongings— a task made even more difficult because of power outages.”

More Than 150,000 Ordered To Flee As Wildfires Torch Homes In Southern California
Strong winds caused multiple fires to explode Monday night and Tuesday morning, forcing more than 150,000 people to evacuate and prompting the California governor to declare a state of emergency.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/hazelshearing/a-huge-wildfire-is-tearing-through-southern-california
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: sidd on December 06, 2017, 06:05:53 AM
" It does however freeze under these conditions and today I was fixing freeze damage on hoses that popped late night. "

Blow them out with compressed air if freeze is expected. The fitting is ez to make or you can just buy one. O, and make sure dripcock on compressor is not frozen either ...

Nuttn worse than fighting a fire in freeze and realizing the 200 feet of hose you unspooled in a hurry is frozen and ripped.

sidd
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 06, 2017, 03:02:22 PM
Use caution on U/S 101 between Ventura and Santa Barbara. Fire is burning on both sides of the highway. Expect intermittent closures and/or CHP escorts through the area. #ThomasFire #sheriffvc
     https://twitter.com/venturasheriff/status/938317111503532033
First photo below.

STUNNING: Pacific Ocean glows with reflection of the Thomas Fire after the wildfire jumps Highway 101 between Ventura and Santa Barbara. http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2017/12/06/thomas-fire-jumps-highway-101/
     https://twitter.com/cbsla/status/938394398114635776
Second photo below.

My friend Jim Bob Barnett took this photo last night from Ortega Hill in Summerland. Stay safe everyone!  #ThomasFire
     https://twitter.com/ashleydevan/status/938076812667523072
Third photo below.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 06, 2017, 03:18:10 PM
Climate context for the horrific #ThomasFire:
–Temperatures in the 80s all week, +15 above normal
–Just 0.11" of rain since Oct 1 in L.A., 94% below normal
–Exceptional Santa Ana event, with wind gusts near hurricane force
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/938136528773177344

This paper proposes a link between climate change and stronger Santa Ana winds:
Identification of two distinct fire regimes in Southern California: implications for economic impact and future change
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094005

Flames leaping near the 405 in Los Angeles this morning.
Can you *imagine* if this was your commute to work?
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/938410214382014464
Brief video at the link.

Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: jai mitchell on December 06, 2017, 05:12:40 PM
https://twitter.com/abc7leslielopez?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Enews%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
#SkirballFire UPDATE: The 405 Fwy is now CLOSED in both directions between the 101 Fwy and 10 Fwy as the 50-acre brush fire near the Getty Center continues to rage. Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for parts of Bel Air as the fire approaches homes in the area.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Paddy on December 06, 2017, 06:31:55 PM
Worth noting that even before this week's latest wildfires, 2017 was the third worst year on record for the USA for total hectares burned, after 2015 in first place and then 2006 in second place. A total of 9.19 million hectares had burned by the end of November https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/nfn.htm.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 06, 2017, 06:46:01 PM
...
#SkirballFire UPDATE: The 405 Fwy is now CLOSED in both directions between the 101 Fwy and 10 Fwy as the 50-acre brush fire near the Getty Center continues to rage. ...

Can’t help but think that Elon Musk’s planned tunnel, parallel to the 405, would still be a safe mode of transport in situations like this — unlike road or rail.  And such situations will certainly continue to happen in the future.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Alexander555 on December 06, 2017, 07:45:13 PM
https://watchers.news/2017/12/06/socal-wildfires-los-angeles-ventura-declare-state-of-emergency-as-200-000-evacuate/
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 06, 2017, 08:02:12 PM
Thick smoke streamed from several fires in southern California when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this natural-color image in the afternoon on December 5, 2017.

The largest of the blazes—the fast-moving Thomas fire in Ventura County—had charred more than 65,000 acres (24,000 hectares or 94 square miles), according to Cal Fire. Smaller smoke plumes from the Creek and Rye fires are also visible.
https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/91000/91379/ventura_tmo_2017239_lrg.jpg

Image below; more at the link.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: pileus on December 07, 2017, 12:46:50 AM
I happen to be in Ventura County this week.  At my location the primary issue yesterday was poor air quality from smoke.  The winds have been stiffening since daybreak and the Santa Ana’s will pick up again tonight.  My first experience with CA wildfires, and it’s not something I prefer to repeat.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Paddy on December 07, 2017, 01:01:30 AM
I happen to be in Ventura County this week.  At my location the primary issue yesterday was poor air quality from smoke.  The winds have been stiffening since daybreak and the Santa Ana’s will pick up again tonight.  My first experience with CA wildfires, and it’s not something I prefer to repeat.

On that note, the mortality figures given for wildfires are certainly an underestimate, since they'll only cover the deaths immediately and directly attributable, and not the deaths among the general population attributable to the worsening air quality.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 07, 2017, 03:52:43 AM
Our dry air mass (orange/red colors) seen on water vapor satellite this afternoon is about to get reinforcement. More dry air forming in NV will be here by Thu, combining with strong #SantaAnaWinds in most LA and Ventura Co. valleys and mountains. #LAWeather
https://twitter.com/nwslosangeles/status/938551079125602309
Photo below; GIF at the link.

Extremely critical fire weather conditions tonight-Thursday as strong and damaging #SantaAnaWinds combine with single digit humidities. Very rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior likely. #LAwind #LAWeather #cawx
https://twitter.com/nwslosangeles/status/938571775637639169
Photo below.

Scary quote from Cal Fire re: forecast tomorrow: "There will be no ability to fight fires in these kinds of winds." (80+ mph expected)
https://twitter.com/josephserna/status/938502870940315648

Literally off the charts fire danger in LA on Thursday. 162 and above = extreme

Tomorrow there will be 4% humidity and a Brush Burning index of 296. "This is the highest number I've ever seen in my career," said L.A. Fire Chief Ralph Terrazas.
More on the index here: http://www.lafd.org/news/how-does-lafd-determine-wildfire-danger-los-angeles
https://twitter.com/kpcc/status/938565891775590400
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 07, 2017, 03:11:58 PM
New uses for technology in our increasingly dangerous climate-changed world.

This Is How California Officials Alerted Hundreds Of Thousands As Wildfires Approached Their Homes
In a rare move, California officials sent sweeping emergency alerts to hundreds of thousands of people as wildfires continued to rage.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/briannasacks/as-wildfires-rip-through-southern-california-heres-how
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 07, 2017, 04:08:31 PM
Thomas Fire almost surrounds Ojai, California
Wednesday night the fire spread further up the coast toward Carpinteria
http://wildfiretoday.com/2017/12/07/thomas-fire-almost-surrounds-ojai-california/

Ludicrous Fire Weather predicted in Southern California through Saturday
http://wildfiretoday.com/2017/12/06/ludicrous-fire-weather-predicted-in-southern-california-through-saturday/


Below: Map of the Thomas Fire. The red dots represent heat detected by a satellite in the 12 hours before 2 a.m. PST December 7. The red line was the perimeter 24 hours before, and the yellow line was about 48 hours before.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 08, 2017, 08:35:26 PM
California's Climate Emergency
Fires continue to burn Southern California, and climate scientists have warned us for years that the region was entering a year-round fire regime
For years, climate scientists have warned us that California was entering a year-round fire regime. For years, climate campaigners have been wondering what it would take to get people to wake up to the urgency of cutting fossil fuel emissions. For years, we've been tip-toeing as a civilization towards a point of no return.

That time is now.

The advent of uncontrollable wintertime megafires in California is a turning point in America's struggle to contain the impacts of a rapidly changing climate. Conditions that led to the Thomas fire won't happen every year, but the fact that they're happening at all should shock us. ...
http://www.rollingstone.com/culture/features/southern-california-wildfires-climate-change-emergency-w513659
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Bruce Steele on December 10, 2017, 04:15:46 PM
There were multiple emergency notices that went out over the I-phone last night. The fire has jumped into Santa Barbara county and is rapidly moving west. There are evacuations now in the hills from Carpenteria to  Montecito. Santa Ana winds are still blowing. There is a very thick tree canopy throughout most of Montecito. The fire on the ridge line is now in the area above Jameson reservoir so any change in winds that become northerly would be worst case.
 A local newsfeed called Noozhawk has been the best source of ongoing news stories .

Here is a satellite heat map from last night. Is

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/939859196895514624/photo/1
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 10, 2017, 04:26:51 PM
Santa Barbara County coastal towns under siege as Thomas fire rages
The Santa Barbara County coastal towns of Carpinteria and Montecito were under siege from the Thomas fire Sunday morning as the destructive blaze again raged out of control.
...
The Thomas fire has burned 155,000 acres and forced 88,000 people to flee their homes. Official estimates have put the cost of combating the fire at $25 million. ...
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-thomas-fire-santa-barbara-fire-20171210-story.html

From earlier:
In all, there are six wildfires burning in Southern California. About 8,500 firefighters are battling the fires, which have collectively burned 175,000 acres.

“We’re facing a new reality in this state, where fires threatened people’s lives, their properties, their neighborhoods and billions and billions of dollars. So we have to have the resources to combat the fires,” [California Gov. Jerry] Brown told reporters at a news conference at the Ventura County Fairgrounds.

The governor thanked firefighters for their efforts and expressed sympathy for residents who had lost their homes and animals, calling it a “horror” and “terrible tragedy for so many people.”

Brown added that climate change may exacerbate the weather conditions that caused the wildfires to explode.

“This is the new normal, and this could be something that happens every year or every few years,” he said. “We’re about to have a firefighting Christmas.” ...
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-wildfires-california-20171209-story.html
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 10, 2017, 04:39:38 PM
CALFIRE map.  The Thomas fire is upper left.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 10, 2017, 07:50:16 PM
“Latest CA fire outlook:
–Offshore winds locked in until at least Friday (a streak of 13 days in a row).
–No rain in Southern California until at least Dec. 26th (16 days from now.)
–Temperatures remain ~10°F above normal for foreseeable future.
Not good. ... “
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/939928521434116101

THE CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES COULD CONTINUE UNTIL CHRISTMAS
• Thomas fire is the first megafire in recorded California history in the month of December.
• That the fires are happening when the rainy season is normally already in full swing is one thing, but the extent and unpredictability of the flames continue to astound officials tasked with stopping their spread.
https://psmag.com/environment/california-wildfires-no-end-in-sight


#ThomasFire now the 10th largest fire in California state history. And it's happening in December.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/939901588403040256
Article and photo at the link.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 10, 2017, 09:55:03 PM
Brief video at the link shows what they are up against. :'(

#ThomasFire- Fire engines parked in front of homes at Cate School in Carpinteria. In the field are off-loaded Fire dozer transports. The dozers and operators are out making nearby fire breaks.
https://twitter.com/eliasonmike/status/939846647772614659
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 11, 2017, 03:15:03 AM
#ThomasFire in #Ventura and #SantaBarbara counties now over 200,000 acres and still rapidly growing. Given extreme dryness of vegetation, persistent #SantaAna winds, & recent record warmth, could ultimately become largest fire in California history.  In December. #CAwx #CAfire
https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/940024817453076480
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: wili on December 11, 2017, 05:09:49 AM
At 230,000 acres, Thomas is now the fifth largest fire in modern CA history, and it just went down from 15% contained to 10%.

That's 360 square miles, or 930 square kilometers.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Paddy on December 11, 2017, 08:27:00 AM
It's also not that far off the largest fire in modern Cal history :-S
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Bruce Steele on December 11, 2017, 06:30:14 PM
The smoke from the fire was Terrible yesterday. My solar system that was putting out
~ 3000 W at noon before the fire was only putting out 300 W yesterday. It would have been a blue sky but we never saw anything but a blood red sun and an Martian red sky. My wife and I holed up in the house but the critters have been in crappy air for a week now. One sow had what appeared to be a stroke but I don't know if the smoke had anything to do with it . She is still ambulatory but her front and rear legs on one side are having trouble.
 Things are somewhat better today, I can see some blue . I can remember smog from the seventies that was similar to today's conditions.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 11, 2017, 09:54:29 PM
“Ferocious Santa Ana winds could gust between 40-55 mph on Monday before tapering, CNN meteorologist Rachel Aissen said. Ventura County and surrounding areas are under an elevated fire outlook, with temperatures remaining between 78-82 degrees as humidity continues to fall.”

California wildfires now larger than New York City and Boston combined
http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/us/california-wildfires/index.html
More photos at the link.

Below: “Palm trees sway in a gust of wind as a firefighter carries a hose while battling a wildfire at Faria State Beach in Ventura on December 7. The windswept blazes have forced tens of thousands of evacuations and destroyed homes.”
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 13, 2017, 03:30:41 PM
Additional evacuations along the southern California coast, and urgent warnings about the dangerous air quality.

Calmer Winds Allow Crews To Get Strategic While Feverishly Protecting Montecito Mansions
Red Flag warnings for fire danger due to Santa Ana winds and a critical lack of moisture were extended into the week instead of expiring Monday afternoon as was initially forecast.

“It doesn’t get much drier than this folks,” the National Weather Service Service tweeted, adding that more than 80 observation sites in the region reported afternoon relative humidity levels between just 1 and 9 percent.

On Monday, ash fell like snow and heavy smoke had residents gasping for air in foothill towns near Santa Barbara, the latest flare-up after a week of wind-fanned wildfires throughout the region.
http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2017/12/12/santa-ana-winds-santa-barbara/
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 14, 2017, 01:18:22 AM
“It's December. This is the rainy season on the West Coast. In California, it's missing right now.

Total rainfall forecast for the next 15 days:
Not a drop over Southern California.

The #ThomasFire is now 8x the size of San Francisco, and likely to grow further.”

     https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/940962960654004224
Image below.


Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Bruce Steele on December 14, 2017, 08:42:02 AM
Due to the interface between the inland and the oceans we tend to get offshore winds at night as the inland areas cool ( and the ocean is relatively warm ) and the reverse
 of a warm inland and a relatively cool ocean resulting in daytime upslope winds. The firefighters use these conditions to create a fire break between the heavily populated coastal areas and the heavy vegetation in the inland areas by " firing off " the chaparral during the daytime upslope winds. They are contemplating a very large burn tomorrow because there is a potential sundowner ( very strong downslope winds ) this weekend. They are running out of time. The decision hasn't been made yet but tomorrow's the day
 There are now ~ 8,000 firefighters and 500 or 600 engines working this fire. Just one single home in Montecito can cost 30 million dollars. A bad decision might be very expensive.
 There are of course risks if they get the timing wrong.

https://www.noozhawk.com/article/incident_commanders_eye_firing_operation_to_stop_thomas_fire
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: TerryM on December 14, 2017, 01:07:38 PM
Stay safe Bruce,
I'm sure you've done everything possible to protect yourself, your family, and your pigs. Just don't be tempted into heroics, even pigs can be replaced.
Terry
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Bruce Steele on December 14, 2017, 04:28:52 PM
SB fire history tends to be repeated . I don't live there anymore. Where I live in the Santa Ynez valley is fairly safe. If I was forced to prepare pigs for a fire I would make a big big wallow in the middle of a big dry paddock and fence them into the wallow . Kinda like getting into a swimming pool is about your best bet if you can't get out in your car..
Please don't worry about an old swineherd, worry about why rich people in Montecito refuse to ration their water during a drought or even limit new well permits. Worry about why they refuse to reduce the fuel load that surrounds their homes and create a defendable space. And finally worry why the rest of us are forced to pay a tax load to protect the real pigs. 30 million dollar homes, private jets ,a couple Teslas , and staff to keep up the grounds but firemen brought in from places like Oxnard or Compton.
 
 
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 14, 2017, 05:10:21 PM
CAL FIRE update, December 14, 2017 6:23 am

Thomas Fire
Acres Burned - Containment:   242,500 acres - 30% contained
Structures Threatened:   18,000 structures threatened
Structures Destroyed:   972 Structures Destroyed, 221 Structures Damaged

Now #4 largest California fire.  In December!  — well into what used to be the state’s rainy season.  Fire season is now year-round. :'(
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 14, 2017, 05:28:46 PM
It's still early, but California's snowpack is running far behind schedule so far–just 37% of normal.
Continued warm and dry through at least Dec 30th.
    https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/941124618185736192
Image below.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 15, 2017, 12:01:33 AM
Extreme fire behavior today at the #ThomasFire — one firefighter has been killed in the line of duty.
Rose Valley, California is north of Ojai.

#ThomasFire: Fire is now well established on the north side of Rose Valley. Crews are unable to control it.
https://twitter.com/vcscanner/status/941409502246584320

Was embedded with a crew on the Montecito side of the fire photographing a 1+ mile long firing operation. Left at 315am. The burnover allegedly occurred on the Fillmore side of the fire later in the morning. The fire is going crazy right now in Rose Valley. #thomasfire #lodd
https://twitter.com/stuartpalley/status/941410102027808768

I am very saddened to report that a firefighter fatality has occurred on the Thomas Incident. Please join me in keeping our fallen firefighter and his loved ones in your prayers. - @CALFIRE_CHIEF
http://cdfdata.fire.ca.gov/pub/cdf/images/incidentfile1922_3242.pdf
News release at the link.



THE THOMAS FIRE COULD BECOME THE LARGEST WILDFIRE IN CALIFORNIA HISTORY
Weather models continue to show absolutely no rainfall until December 30th at the earliest.
https://psmag.com/environment/thomas-fire-could-become-largest-in-california-history
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: John Batteen on December 15, 2017, 06:58:38 PM
Wildfire burning in Custer State Park in the Black Hills of South Dakota, in December.  Extremely unusual, never happened before.  This comes on the heels of a severe drought which has yet to resolve itself.

http://rapidcityjournal.com/news/local/legion-lake-fire-now-percent-contained-more-than-square-miles/article_1fc9c496-beac-5501-9b2c-3032aa8762b1.html
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: TerryM on December 15, 2017, 10:33:23 PM
SB fire history tends to be repeated . I don't live there anymore. Where I live in the Santa Ynez valley is fairly safe. If I was forced to prepare pigs for a fire I would make a big big wallow in the middle of a big dry paddock and fence them into the wallow . Kinda like getting into a swimming pool is about your best bet if you can't get out in your car..
Please don't worry about an old swineherd, worry about why rich people in Montecito refuse to ration their water during a drought or even limit new well permits. Worry about why they refuse to reduce the fuel load that surrounds their homes and create a defendable space. And finally worry why the rest of us are forced to pay a tax load to protect the real pigs. 30 million dollar homes, private jets ,a couple Teslas , and staff to keep up the grounds but firemen brought in from places like Oxnard or Compton.
The wallow sounds like a lifesaver, BTW - hope the sow is recovering.

I'd thought you were further south, and had been worrying. The wife and I used to spend our 4th of July weekends in, and about Lompoc, as we found the whole region, with the exception of Santa Barbara, to have a wonderful ambiance so missed while living in the plastic jungle of Las Vegas.
In our last few trips we'd noted the ever expanding vineyards, each with it's mandatory mansion. We eventually headed further up the coast in our attempts to leave the madness behind.

I'd read somewhere that the California Penal System hasn't been able to provide their fair share of slave prison labor to fight the fires this year. Something to do with the "Sanctuary Cities Movement" was being blamed for this critical shortage of indentured labor.
These are dirty, dangerous, jobs, and a little additional (cattle) prodding has traditionally filled the gap.

Terry
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Bruce Steele on December 16, 2017, 04:44:38 AM
Terry, I know you had a place in San Bernadino and that you also knew the Great Basin. Lompoc is close to where I live and yes vineyards and mansions have taken over what used to be Lima beans and Garbonzo Beans that were dry farmed for five generations around here before grapes took over. Pot farms are springing up now with about 150 large greenhouses popping up within two miles of where live over the last year. I am but a simple pig farmer and I don't have visions of vast wealth dancing in my head like sugar plum fairies . Maybe growing up in places like Winnemuca, Baker city, and Livingston temper a honest mans expectations.
 I still can see the Milky Way at night .I still have coyotes, cougar, and roadrunners as occasional visitors. Something always tugs at me to venture far afield . Most people don't want to live hard agains't the anvil but when civilization decides a pig farmer isn't what they want for a neighbor I will move someplace else .
 I know I am off topic but I hope Terry and I can reminisce on memories of where we both have lived
 Back on topic. I said a couple days ago that sundowners and strong north winds were the biggest threat to S.B.   Saturday is going to test the fire lines in S.B. Sunday and Monday will result in Northeasters for Ventura county and the Sespe Wilderness will fry. I have hiked hundreds and hundreds of miles of the wilderness that has already burnt and as the fire digs deeper into the backcountry it will burn a lot more that I know from all the time I have been privileged to spend there. I worry the wildlife hasn't had refuge from the inferno. Sometimes our fires burn in a patchwork that provides some opportunity for survival but the drought, the dryness and the deadwood are going to be a death knell I am afraid. So many springs have dried up already... 
My family has lived around here for 150 years and our ( human. ) complicity in all this destruction wears on my soul. Millions and millions of my fellow human cohabitants don't feel my pain for the Coyotes, Cougars, and minions lost. They can't feel for what they know not.
 
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Alison on December 16, 2017, 03:35:28 PM
How is the sow doing, please Bruce?
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Shared Humanity on December 16, 2017, 03:44:08 PM

My family has lived around here for 150 years and our ( human. ) complicity in all this destruction wears on my soul. Millions and millions of my fellow human cohabitants don't feel my pain for the Coyotes, Cougars, and minions lost. They can't feel for what they know not.

The least informed of us humans will be feeling the pain soon enough, pain that will dwarf the hurt that families who are losing their homes now feel.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Bruce Steele on December 16, 2017, 05:18:11 PM
I got up before dawn and started watching live coverage on the local TV . Conditions seemed rather mild but within a half hour there were reports of downslope winds at 36 mph all along the ridge line from Montecito to Gaviota. The fire moved very quickly with spot fires jumping out in front of the majority of the flames. If the fire gets much closer to town I expect new evacuations will be be put in place and the cellphone will buzz with the new notices. I will post if that happens. We are going to have strong winds all day with the worst expected at dusk hence the term " sundowner "
 There was an oil delivery truck that overturned on the Northbound lanes of the 101 freeway last night in SB and the northbound lanes have been closed for 9 hours. The 192 is the route locals would usually use to circumvent a freeway closure but it is closed due to the fire. Anyone headed north out of L.A. should  take the 5 , avoid the 101.
 Latest weather service has reported gusts to 55 mph above Montecito
 Allison, I posted earlier about the sow... then erased the bad news. She was having lots of trouble with the front and rear legs on her right side. She was having difficulty standing. Sometimes being a farmer requires tough choices. I sold pigs to a lady who lived in the hills above Santa Paula in Wheeler canyon It burned there so fast there wouldn't have been any chance of evacuating her animals. Her phone lines are down.
 
 
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Bruce Steele on December 16, 2017, 05:37:26 PM
Mandatory evacuations have just been put in place for most of Montecito, everything North of the 101 is now mandatory. The cell phone is buzzing right now. This could become the most expensive fire in US history( today ) is  if things go badly wrong.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: solartim27 on December 16, 2017, 06:08:30 PM
Looking pretty nasty in Santa Barbara.  Live news coverage here
http://www.ksby.com/category/297505/live-stream
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Alison on December 16, 2017, 06:32:28 PM
Thank you Bruce. Your animals are fortunate to have you. Very best.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 16, 2017, 07:26:31 PM
Tweets from yesterday:

Conditions will be suitable for rapid wildfire growth and extreme fire behavior in *Northern California* tomorrow.
Impossible to overstate how unusual this is for mid-December.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/941684353523908608

NWS Bay Area:  Critical Fire Weather conditions over portions of #CA the next two days.  @NWSSPC has elevated and critical areas highlighted.  Red Flag Warning remains in effect for #BayArea #cawx #cafire
https://twitter.com/nwsbayarea/status/941653277481029637
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 16, 2017, 07:35:01 PM
From ~one hour ago:

VCFD PIO: #ThomasFire -Fire intensity increasing in the Santa Barbara area.
https://twitter.com/vcfd_pio/status/942085986846044160
Photo below.

VCFD PIO: #ThomasFire The strongest N winds will occur across in a SB AREA this morning & the strongest NE winds will occur in Ventura, Sunday morning
https://twitter.com/vcfd_pio/status/942089058011852800

The #thomasfire is moving quickly today, as wind speeds pick up. It’s headed towards Montecito.
https://twitter.com/yamphoto/status/942086473234313217
Brief video at the link.

Update: #ThomasFire experiencing explosive growth on the western edge near #SantaBarbara , strong sundowner winds expected to develope this evening, could be a dangerous day out there. Don't wait to evacuate !
https://twitter.com/epn473/status/942086767909285890




Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Shared Humanity on December 16, 2017, 07:43:55 PM
Live news stream.

http://www.ksby.com/category/297505/live-stream

Homes in Montecito are burning.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 16, 2017, 08:00:08 PM
VCFD PIO: #ThomasFire -"Fire Front Following" tactic will be used if the expected wind pushes the fire downhill into Montecito/Santa Barbara areas.
https://twitter.com/vcfd_pio/status/942087332986896384

Google:
Fire front following is a fast-paced, defensive tactic that allows firefighters to defend structures while continuously advancing, but staying just behind the fire front, in the black.

"Fire Front Following" is an extreme tactic designed to preserve firefighter safety when "the chances of success are impossible".
http://www.firerescuemagazine.com/articles/print/volume-11/issue-10/wildland-urban-interface/fire-front-following.html

     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/942104607328821249
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 16, 2017, 08:08:10 PM
CAL FIRE:  #ThomasFire - The Santa Barbara County Sheriff has issued mandatory evacuation orders and evacuation warnings for Santa Barbara county. 
http://www.fire.ca.gov/current_incidents/incidentdetails/Index/1922

Full news release and other information at the link.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 16, 2017, 11:40:03 PM
Half of the city of Santa Barbara is now under either a voluntary or mandatory evacuation due to the massive Thomas Fire.

New evacuation orders for Santa Barbara County as winds pick up, threatening hundreds of homes in Montecito
Wind gusts of up to 65 mph blasted south down the San Ysidro Creek drainage directly into Montecito.

‘Unfortunately they under-predicted this one,” Zaniboni said. “We weren’t expecting this severe of a wind event and we’re certainly getting the worst...This fire is two weeks old and here we are battling it like it just started again this morning.”
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-thomas-fire-ledeall-20171216-story.html

NWS Los Angeles: Red Flag Warning in effect for much of LA/Ventura counties tonight-Sunday due to #SantaAnaWinds gusting 35-55 mph and low humidities. Potential for very rapid fire spread #LAWind #LAWeather.
https://twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/942144563568873477

Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 17, 2017, 03:28:40 AM
VIIRS satellite fire detections show #ThomasFire's rapid spread to the west due to 12/16 strong winds. Red=newer, yellow=older. Green line is fire boundary late last night. Evacuate early if authorities notify you.
     https://twitter.com/bbdd333/status/942182173687267328
Image below.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 17, 2017, 03:30:55 AM
#ThomasFire now approaching largest fire in California history at 267,500 acres this evening and 40% contained.  Largest previous Fire was the 273,246 acre Cedar Fire.  #VenturaCounty #SantaBarbara
     https://twitter.com/Info_CIIMT1/status/942215620963139584
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Pmt111500 on December 17, 2017, 08:38:14 AM
Just heard that California has some big wildfires about. Check it out, other Europeans. Are the republicans fleeing or fighting the fires?

(edit: Ah, sigmetnow has reported this already. Anyway, first i heard in finnish.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Bernard on December 17, 2017, 11:14:00 AM
@Pmt111500 Here in France the California fires have made it to the breaking news in all mainstream media more than a week ago. But we are certainly more concerned in Southern Europe, south of France (where I live), Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece ... where wildfires are becoming with years more frequent and destructive. What happens to California is just an ominous prefiguration of what we have to expect here in the years to come, with basically the same ingredients : dry forest and brush in remote mountains, anarchical urbanization, powerful local dry winds (the infamous "mistral" in Provence), longer and hotter droughts.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Bruce Steele on December 17, 2017, 05:34:41 PM
The fire in the Montecito-Santa Barbara area seems to have for the most part burned itself out overnight. There were a couple homes lost but it is a testament to the firefighters skill and planning  that things didn't go much worse.
 There will be three days of good weather to snuff out the small hot spots still burning on the West end of the fire. The East end of the fire by Fillmore and the back country are still troublesome but how we got through yesterday without larger losses is just amazing.
 I would have predicted worse but my guesses on various polls on this forum force me to question my predictive skills. There have been multiple fires in the years I have been living around here where hundreds of houses burned but S.B. looks to have dodged the bullet this time.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Archimid on December 17, 2017, 06:51:36 PM
It seems that this year worst case scenarios have come true more often than usual. I'm very glad to hear that this wasn't one of those. Stay safe.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 17, 2017, 07:51:35 PM
VCFD PIO: #ThomasFire -Firefighters achieved huge successes yesterday during a BIG firefight to hold their line & SAVED hundreds of homes in Montecito
https://twitter.com/VCFD_PIO/status/942456877253763072
Map at the link.

NWS Los Angeles:  Red Flag Warnings in effect for much of LA/Ventura counties until 8 pm this evening. Potential for very rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior due to strong #SantaAnaWinds. #LAWind #LAWeather
https://twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/942455521096994817

Image from: https://twitter.com/eric_doherty/status/942464240853512192
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Paddy on December 19, 2017, 03:24:27 PM
Thomas fire now at 271,750 acres in size, which is less than 2000 acres below the Califirnuan record, but also 50% contained now, thankfully http://m.fire.ca.gov/IncidentsCurrent.aspx
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Paddy on December 20, 2017, 04:41:10 PM
The winds that have been driving the Thomas fire are due to return today: http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-fire-ledeall-20171220-story.html
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Tor Bejnar on December 20, 2017, 07:12:14 PM
Thomas Fire
272,000 acres - 60% contained
Last Updated: 2017-12-20 09:31:00
Cal Fire (http://m.fire.ca.gov/IncidentsCurrent.aspx)
#2 for size of post 1932 fires in California
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 21, 2017, 08:45:11 PM
Congrats to @usfs fire photographer @stuartpalley for capturing this poignant shot at the #ThomasFire this week.
Firefighters there are working through the holidays—during the middle of what's normally the "rainy" season. The humanity of life in the anthropocene.
     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/943925206543949824
Image below.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Tor Bejnar on December 21, 2017, 08:58:37 PM
272,200 acres - 60% contained (+200 a. from yesterday)
Last Updated: 2017-12-21 11:08:00
Cal Fire (http://m.fire.ca.gov/IncidentsCurrent.aspx)
Still #2 (1,046 acres less than #1 or about 1/3 of 1% [3.8‰] less than #1)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Bruce Steele on December 22, 2017, 05:05:14 AM
I used to have a 125 lb. dog that was a good hiking partner. We would go off trail and that often required crawling under the brush known as chaparel . The dog would make better time than I could and when I was completely stymied I would call out to him and wherever he crashed back through the heavy cover I would follow because he could find the game trails with his nose. If you look at the attached photo you wouldn't know these slopes were ever completely brush covered for the last hundred years. Like I said before the game it protected is gone. I am still hoping for rain this season but any heavy rains will be scary . I miss the dog, he was a real trooper.

https://www.noozhawk.com/article/ray_ford_thomas_fire_causes_serious_damage_to_frontcountry_trails
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: miki on December 23, 2017, 05:48:30 AM
Thomas fire becomes largest wildfire on record in California.

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-thomas-fire-size-20171222-20171222-htmlstory.html

"The Thomas fire on Friday became California’s largest wildfire on record, burning 273,400 acres during its destructive march across Ventura and Santa Barbara counties.

The fire eclipsed the 2003 Cedar fire in San Diego County, which burned 273,246 acres."
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 23, 2017, 02:54:20 PM
“The [Thomas] fire area has not received any rainfall over .10 inches since February.  Live fuel conditions are far below critical levels.“

CALFIRE Incident Update and photo:
https://twitter.com/LosPadresNF/status/944422029360377857
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Tor Bejnar on December 23, 2017, 08:36:15 PM
That is, the largest fire in California (counting only California territory) since 1932.
Rush Fire in 2012 burned 315,577 acres, 43,666 acres in Nevada.
Santiago Canyon Fire of 1889 burned at least 300,000 acres.
per Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_California_wildfires)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Bruce Steele on December 24, 2017, 05:11:53 AM
I mentioned before that I had sold some pigs to a lady who lived up Wheeler Canyon, a long dead end canyon road downwind and close to where the fire started. I had tried her phone but only got a strange tone. The roads are open so I took a drive to see how her farm had fared. As I feared she was totally burned out but amazingly her livestock survived even as the house and barns burnt to the ground.
Now however without power her friends were hand watering her 60 or seventy head of alpacas, pigs and horses. Neighbors were pitching in to help clean up and fixing the fences to keep the stock within her very scorched perimeter.
 I did make contact and I am going to buy back as many pigs as I can market or afford. I told her that I would be willing to sell her new stock when she got back on her feet for whatever price she sold me the now stranded herd members. The wooden bridge to her property was burnt out but she said it was the first priority and would be replaced soon.
 She was apparently there as the fire arrived because she told me the pigs were calm and never panicked even as the flames burned everything around them.
 I am going to be challenged both monetarily and logistically in trying to get her pigs to market . I hope my restaurant customers can step up and handle some extra product. Like I said already I will be here if and when she wants to grow her herd again but these sorts of experiences leave any farmer questioning whether they want to start again.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 24, 2017, 06:23:47 PM
Australia.

Natalie Peters:
My parents are evacuating their home at Mulgoa (with all the relatives there for Christmas in tow) due to a nearby bushfire. Thinking of everyone out there right now, and thanking all the @NSWRFS crews. #sydney
https://twitter.com/nataliejpeters/status/944792739375222785
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 25, 2017, 01:15:08 AM
Extraordinary double green-flash sunset from San Diego, enhanced by smoke from the California fires--maybe the only good thing to come from them. (Photo: Chris Mannerino) http://earthsky.org/todays-image/photo-double-green-flash-san-diego
https://twitter.com/coreyspowell/status/944578147982495749
Photo below.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: TerryM on December 25, 2017, 10:46:37 PM
Totally amazing!
I had no idea that a double green flash was even possible.


Terry
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Paddy on December 26, 2017, 02:56:05 AM
Thomas Fire is now 281,620 acres in size, but 86% contained.  http://m.fire.ca.gov/IncidentsCurrent.aspx

1500 fire fighters are still working on bringing this completely under control: http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-thomas-fire-christmas-20171225-story.html
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 31, 2017, 05:11:28 PM
Dec 30, 2017:

#ThomasFire [update] north of Santa Paula (Ventura and Santa Barbara County) per @LosPadresNF remains 281,893 acres and 92% contained. (link: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/5670/) inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/5670/
https://twitter.com/CAL_FIRE/status/947143807786631168
Photo below.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: GeoffBeacon on January 03, 2018, 04:42:04 AM
Keeping global warming within 1.5 °C constrains emergence of aridification (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4) in Nature Climate Change is paywalled but Phys.Org says (https://phys.org/news/2018-01-significantly-drier-world.html)
Dr Chang-Eui Park from SusTech, one of the authors of the study, said: "Aridification is a serious threat because it can critically impact areas such as agriculture, water quality, and biodiversity. It can also lead to more droughts and wildfires - similar to those seen raging across California.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Tor Bejnar on January 03, 2018, 05:00:52 AM
Thomas Fire in Southern California:
Goleta, Calif., January 2, 2018 — For Immediate Release.
Start Date: December 4, 2017 Cause: Under Investigation Size: 281,893 acres
Containment: 92% Personnel: 487 Structures Destroyed: 1,063 Structures Damaged: 280
source: inciweb (https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/5670/)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: crandles on January 03, 2018, 04:22:05 PM
Fire reductions 'make methane numbers add up'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-42555568

Wildfires in particular have been going down as the amount of land under agricultural control has expanded.

Surprised me a little.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 03, 2018, 08:04:27 PM
It's January! And California is still dealing with elevated wildfire risk.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/948291451032567808
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Avalonian on January 04, 2018, 11:05:10 AM
Fire reductions 'make methane numbers add up'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-42555568

Wildfires in particular have been going down as the amount of land under agricultural control has expanded.

Surprised me a little.

Yes, I saw that as well, and felt the same. It does seem to be borne out by the data, though:
http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/royptb/371/1696/20150345.full.pdf
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: GeoffBeacon on January 04, 2018, 11:54:55 AM
Fire reductions 'make methane numbers add up'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-42555568

Wildfires in particular have been going down as the amount of land under agricultural control has expanded.

Surprised me a little.

I've noticed that the BBC is getting a little better in it's reporting of climate change after years (particularly since 2007 (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6979596.stm)) of hiding the awful truth from it's audience (https://dontlooknow.org/2015/12/30/more-climate-silence-from-the-bbc/).

In the title the term "Fire reductions" makes me suspicious that there is still an element of climate hiding at the BBC. The article says

The mean burnt area (a priori)-based estimate from GFED4s is slightly larger and shows a slightly smaller decrease (2.3 Tg CH4 per year) in fire emissions after 2007 relative to the 2001–2006 time period.
but also points out
Wetter years associated with La Nina during the 2008 through 2014 time periods likely  contributed to the observed decrease in fire emissions in South America and Indonesia. It is also
likely that this increased precipitation in these regions affects the fuel moisture content and in turn the combustion efficiency of the fires.

So there may have been less biomass burning as "the amount of land under agricultural control has expanded" but comparing a few dryer El Niño years with some wetter La Nina years does not amount to a "Fire reductions" trend.

I know the BBC piece does not actually claim a fire reduction trend but I think it's implied. Am I just being too suspicious?

Note: I have an FOI with the BBC "Can I use a BBC image, which makes it look like Jeremy Corbyn is using Nazi salute? (https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/can_i_use_a_bbc_image_which_make#outgoing-689541)" which is long overdue. I suspect someone in the BBC cropped the picture (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-40393921/jeremy-corbyn-appears-at-glastonbury) to give the impression of a Nazi salute - to me it looked even more Nazi-like in the thumbnail that was on the News page.  I want to show the original and the BBC-cropped version. The request is long overdue.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: GeoffBeacon on January 04, 2018, 01:17:58 PM

Yes, I saw that as well, and felt the same. It does seem to be borne out by the data, though:
http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/royptb/371/1696/20150345.full.pdf

Perhaps Leon Festinger's cognative dissonance (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance) (aka stubborness) has got me but I'm not convinced by the Royal Society paper

What is not spreading equally well is the recognition
that fire is a fundamental natural ecological agent in many
of our ecosystems and only a ‘problem’ where we choose
to inhabit these fire-prone regions or we humans introduce
 it to non-fire-adapted ecosystems [3]. The ‘wildfire problem’
is essentially more a social than a natural one.

In the back of my mind is

a) Fires may spread to a drier Amazon basin causing enormous release of carbon.
b) The Indonesian fires of 1997 & 2015 were related to palm oil production.
c) Canadian wildfires are encouraged by changes in insect infestations caused by climate change.
d) Increased wildfire in the Arctic

But to be more specific on the RoyalSoc paper...

75 deaths a year rising to 100,000 deaths in a year

In the RoyalSoc paper, I'm surprised by "Table 2. Human and economic losses from wildfire ‘disasters’ by global region from 1984 to 2013". This reports 748 people killed in Asia in a decade (75 deaths a year?)when Columbia and Harvard research tells us Southeast Asia Haze Caused Over 100,000 Deaths (http://environment.harvard.edu/news/faculty-news/southeast-asia-haze-caused-over-100000-deaths-study-says),
A study by two U.S. universities estimated that more than
100,000 people in parts of Southeast Asia died prematurely
last year from breathing the noxious haze related to fires
set to clear land for agriculture.

$1.2 billion a year costs rising to 16.1 billion costs in a year

Table 2 also gives  the economic cost of the fires in Asia as $11.9 billion for the decade ($1.2 biliion a year?) but the World Bank estimated (http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/776101467990969768/pdf/103668-BRI-Cost-of-Fires-Knowledge-Note-PUBLIC-ADD-NEW-SERIES-Indonesia-Sustainable-Landscapes-Knowledge-Note.pdf) the 2015 fires alone cost Indonesia $16.1 Billion. They also say

Calculating the GHG emissions from Indonesia’s
fires is difficult and hinges primarily on quantifying
the amount and depth of peatland burned. While
all fires produce GHG emissions, the CO2 emissions
from fire are usually balanced by regrowth after
the fire. However, this is not the case for peat fires
because they burn carbon that has been deposited
over thousands of years and cannot be replaced.
Peatlands have long been a target for land conversion
– draining seemingly unproductive swamp land and
then clearing it with fire for agriculture. Dry peatland is
quick to burn and difficult to extinguish.


Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Avalonian on January 04, 2018, 02:26:59 PM
Thanks for the analysis, Geoff - I suspected that the paper wasn't actually realistic, but didn't like to cast aspersions without anything to back them up.

 Among the most obvious alarm wells were indeed that the vast fires in Indonesia (especially) are directly related to increasing agricultural land use, and the huge swathes of fire-affected taiga and tundra in Siberia and North America... which I was fairly certain were increasing. Sounds like a case of extreme cherry-picking, but we'll have to look up the references they're citing to get to the bottom of it.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 07, 2018, 07:21:03 PM
NWS Los Angeles : Flash Flood Watch in effect Monday Night-Tuesday for recent burn areas of SBA, Ventura, LA counties. Significant threat for flash flooding/debris flows. Peak rainfall rates 0.50-1.00 inch per hour. Make preparations now and follow directions of local officials. #CAstorm #LArain
https://twitter.com/nwslosangeles/status/950065347629060098
Infographic at the link.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Tor Bejnar on January 07, 2018, 10:48:26 PM
Thomas Fire
same area and % containment, but updated info.

from inciweb (https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/5670/):

Current as of   1/6/2018, 9:09:54 P
Cause   Unknown
Date of Origin   Monday December 04th, 2017 approx. 06:35 AM
Location   Ojai, Santa Paula, Ventura, Montecito, Carpenteria, Santa Barbara, Fillmore
Incident Commander   California IMT3 IC Valencia
Current Situation
Total Personnel   326
Size   281,893 Acres
Percent of Perimeter Contained   92%
Estimated Containment Date   Saturday January 20th, 2018 approx. 12:00 AM
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: sidd on January 08, 2018, 02:27:10 AM
This is something i had never heard of before: Raptors spreading wildfires ... intentionally (!)

Bonta et al.

doi: 10.2993/0278-0771-37.4.700

"While driving past a smoky roadside fire on the Cape York Peninsula, QLD, Dick Eussen saw Black Kites swooping on prey amidst smoke and sparks, while others hopped about on the road in front of the fire as it burned itself out (Table 1:Record 14). He saw one bird swoop to grab a smoking stick in its talons, dropping it onto the road. The ember was apparently too hot for the kite to hold. Another was more successful, dropping a stick on the other side of the road in the unburnt grass, which soon flared up."

"In all, he put out seven fires, all caused by the kites."

"Fire-spreading by raptors is found across a 2400 km E-W and 1000 km N-S swath of northern Australia. The behavior is likely known to most, if not all, Aboriginal groups within this region. Most accounts and traditions unequivocally indicate intentionality on the part of three raptor species and a handful provide evidence of cooperative fire-spreading by select individuals from within larger fire-foraging raptor assemblages."

sidd
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 08, 2018, 04:44:18 PM
Spreading grass fires to force their prey to flee.... 
Resulting in a short period of easy pickings –– then they abandon the ruined area, and move on. How human!  :-\
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Martin Gisser on January 08, 2018, 06:06:28 PM
Here is why wildfires aren't always bad.

Spreading grass fires to force their prey to flee.... 
Resulting in a short period of easy pickings –– then they abandon the ruined area, and move on. How human!  :-\
Not necessarily ruined. E.g. the deep fertile black soil (Chernozem) of Ukraine's wheat basket contains an enormous amount of fire derived carbon. Natural terra preta soil accumulated over millenia from grass fires.

Rodionov et al (2010), Black carbon in grassland ecosystems of the world
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009GB003669/full

Wolf et al (2014), Black carbon: Fire fingerprints in Pleistocene loess–palaeosol archives in Germany
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0146638014000618
Maximum BC amount occurred at times of intensive pedogenesis [soil formation]
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Tor Bejnar on January 09, 2018, 04:42:56 PM
'Bet the Thomas fire is out now!
From weather.com (https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/2018-01-09-california-flooding-debris-flows-burn-areas) news:
The heaviest rain California's L.A. Basin has seen since last February, has triggered mudslides, rockslides, and debris flows over areas recently charred by destructive wildfires.
 
Parts of Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties, near the Thomas fire burn area were particularly hard hit Tuesday morning. Up to waist-high mud flowed into parts of Montecito, California, according to Santa Barbara County fire spokesman Mike Eliason.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 09, 2018, 05:13:53 PM
More on the post-wildfire floods in the Floods thread:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1951.msg138347.html#msg138347
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 09, 2018, 05:17:52 PM
Here is why wildfires aren't always bad.

Spreading grass fires to force their prey to flee.... 
Resulting in a short period of easy pickings –– then they abandon the ruined area, and move on. How human!  :-\
Not necessarily ruined. E.g. the deep fertile black soil (Chernozem) of Ukraine's wheat basket contains an enormous amount of fire derived carbon. Natural terra preta soil accumulated over millenia from grass fires.
...

And California’s giant Sequoia trees don’t spread their seeds until a wildfire opens up their cones.  I know, it’s not all bad.  ;)
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 09, 2018, 05:21:12 PM
2017's Western #wildfire season cost at least $18 billion, tripling the previous record annual wildfire toll
https://mobile.twitter.com/climatenexus/status/950464716111077376

Weather and climate disasters cost the U.S. a record $306 billion in 2017
http://mashable.com/2018/01/08/2017-record-year-billion-dollar-disasters-third-warmest
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Martin Gisser on January 10, 2018, 02:37:08 PM
I know, it’s not all bad.  ;)
Yup, sounds like trivializing Global Warming ;) Pleading guilty.

Anyhow, one of my more radical plans to save the carbon cycle involves managed forest fires. Of eucalypt no less. Coppiced eucalypt, however, not the huge firebombs that ravaged Australia and Portugal.

-------------
I've been telling for almost a decade now that what is happening in California looks like a highway to desertification: Burn and flush, burn and flush, ... until all soil is gone and forests can no longer regrow.

But I'm not so sure about this theory. Any observations?
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: gerontocrat on January 10, 2018, 04:43:10 PM

I've been telling for almost a decade now that what is happening in California looks like a highway to desertification: Burn and flush, burn and flush, ... until all soil is gone and forests can no longer regrow.

But I'm not so sure about this theory. Any observations?

Observations suggest that SoCal especially is a place becoming less liveable and likely to degrade further.

Until recent years impacts of climate change in the so-called developed world have been transitory - large but short-term disruptions to normal life. Places like SoCal with massive and often badly planned urban development and a dodgy climate are therefore likely to be among the first to face more and more frequent disruptions from climate-driven events.

Life isn't fair in that California is in many ways a leader in combating climate change.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Bruce Steele on January 10, 2018, 05:27:15 PM
Chumash Indians burnt the chaparel for thousands of years before white man arrived. They burned in the spring after the rain season so the wet ground wouldn't burn. They were trying to improve grass and feed to support more game. Condors thrived on the increased game and open areas to land and take off. They also hunted sea otters to help improve shellfish stocks, or that was the result.
 I don't think California is " less livable " unless we turn off the power. This is LaLa land ( Disneyland ) and it is a manipulated environment. There is lots of building , growth and yes solar panels and Teslas but I would be careful about touting our environmental credentials . We are masters at deception and there is a profit in the dream.
 Here is a real estate site for Montecito.
https://www.christiesrealestate.com/eng/sales/montecito-ca-usa
So if you would like a couple Teslas in your three car garage and live the dream you better pony up .
It is just a dream and there isn't anyone in the U.S.that can better afford to rebuild. They will continue to avoid creating defendable space to fight fires, they will continue to avoid water conservation, they will import all their food , and pay the help to keep it all beautiful. So please don't worry about the weather , global warming , fires, floods or food, some people have enough money to avoid reality.
 If you'd like to get a better look at something closer to ground level and how thousands of Californians live plan your vacation for Fresno. Enjoy !

 
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Tor Bejnar on January 11, 2018, 09:10:15 PM
from InciWeb (https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/article/5670/42440/)
01-11-2018 Daily Update Thomas Fire
Incident: Thomas Fire Wildfire
Released: 3 hrs. ago
Thomas Fire Update
Goleta, Calif., January 11th, 2018 — For Immediate Release.
Start Date: December 4, 2017 Cause: Under Investigation Size: 281,893 acres
Containment: 92% Personnel: 13 Structures Destroyed: 1,063 Structures Damaged: 280
Current Situation: Due to high wind, some over flights were cancelled yesterday. The flights will resume today to assess the Thomas Fire. The incident commander will be on these over flights for an evaluation of the containment percentage.
...

I'm surprised they haven't changed the containment percentage, but note they will discern this today.  I note personnel is down to a bakers dozen.

Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: jmshelton on January 12, 2018, 08:30:21 PM
I know, it’s not all bad.  ;)
Yup, sounds like trivializing Global Warming ;) Pleading guilty.

Anyhow, one of my more radical plans to save the carbon cycle involves managed forest fires. Of eucalypt no less. Coppiced eucalypt, however, not the huge firebombs that ravaged Australia and Portugal.

-------------
I've been telling for almost a decade now that what is happening in California looks like a highway to desertification: Burn and flush, burn and flush, ... until all soil is gone and forests can no longer regrow.

But I'm not so sure about this theory. Any observations?

California has a very rich diversity of habitats.  In the Thomas fire area, much of that is chaparral that has burned on a pretty regular basis.  The soils are not usually very high in organic matter, except in the lower parts of the canyon where a more mesic micro-habitat can develop.  Big/hot catastrophic fires can change the landscape in this area, but over time, the chaparral has a pretty good chance of re-establishing.  The more mesic canyons, with some riparian vegetation, usually don't lose as much vegetation in the fires, nor lose all their organic content in the soils.  The fires don't usually burn down hill as hot as the do up-hill,  but this is a great simplification.  in any case, those canyons can also recover, even if there are some pretty good debris flow floods.  The debris flows are messy, and leave quite a bit of organic material along the channel, so the ability to recover is still there, albeit from the bottom up.

I spend a lot of time in the Sierras, and in the chaparral belt I expect over time, some of this to turn into blue oak-woodland due to climate change... But the big worry is that the yellow pine forest and black oak woodland (above the chaparral), with a decent organic content soils, will have much of its lower areas turn into chaparral, and lose its organic soils.  The community above is red fir, and those soils are low in organic material, so the ability of black oaks to move up maybe limited - low water retention and low nutrients.  If this is the scenario that climate change causes, then a loss of soil carbon in the Sierras would be positive feedback. 

Fire looks to be the tipping point, with a plant community hanging on until a fire comes through.  If we have a hot fire, the soils lose much of their organic matter, seed base, and seed donors. At that point, a new community type, if it is more in attuned to climate conditions, will be generated.  Established communities can hang on in adverse climate conditions, at least for a while.

My two cents - from a systems ecologist that is making a SWAG!
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: oren on January 12, 2018, 11:51:38 PM
Welcome jmshelton and thanks for your interesting post.
Title: Re: Wildfires
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 19, 2018, 08:45:21 PM
Insurers take a hard look at California and see growing wildfire risk
• California suffered record-breaking wildfires last year and now insurers are taking a harder look at fire risk.
• Urban areas are increasingly getting considered as a fire hazard.
• Insurers refused to renew thousands of policies in fire areas after previous disasters.
• A proposed state bill would limit insurers' ability to cut coverage in areas after a wildfire disaster.
...
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/18/after-wildfires-it-gets-tougher-to-insure-a-home-in-california.html