Arctic Sea Ice : Forum
AGW in general => Consequences => Topic started by: Sigmetnow on August 21, 2015, 01:28:27 PM
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Western Wildfires: Experts from Australia Will Help U.S. Firefighters
More than 70 firefighting experts from Australia and New Zealand will travel to the United States to help tackle deadly wildfires across the West as local officials warned they could not keep up with the spread of the flames.
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"We cannot keep up. We do not have the resources. It's nonstop," Okanogan County Chief Sheriff's Deputy Dave Rodriguez said. "It's all burning, and we don't have the resources available. We cannot get out and put boots on the ground for all these fires."
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/western-wildfires-experts-australia-will-help-u-s-firefighters-n413582 (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/western-wildfires-experts-australia-will-help-u-s-firefighters-n413582)
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@R5_Fire_News: **Corrected** California wildfire activity for August 21 (am) @forestservice @Cal_Fire @Cal_OES @Interior http://t.co/1igq2qGKU0 (http://t.co/1igq2qGKU0)
https://twitter.com/r5_fire_news/status/634772218828955648 (https://twitter.com/r5_fire_news/status/634772218828955648)
@ShastaTrinityNF: Thursday Evening Summary Report on fires burning in the @ShastaTrinityNF & @SixRiversNF. Steady progress continues. http://t.co/5Cxz8thXJO (http://t.co/5Cxz8thXJO)
https://twitter.com/shastatrinitynf/status/634579993889107972 (https://twitter.com/shastatrinitynf/status/634579993889107972)
Statement from Secretary Tom Vilsack on Ongoing Devastating Wildfire Season
WASHINGTON, Aug. 20, 2015 - U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack today made the following statement:
"This year, we are experiencing yet another devastating wildfire season, particularly in the drought-ravaged West. Climate change, drought, fuel buildup, insects and disease are increasing the severity of unprecedented wildfire in America's forests and rangelands, which impacts the safety of people, homes and communities. Development close to forests has also increased the threat to property, with more than 46 million homes in the United States, or about 40 percent of our nation's housing, potentially at risk from wildfire. USDA works closely with the Department of Interior and Secretary of the Interior Sally Jewell, along with other partners, to deploy the workforce, equipment, and interagency coordination necessary to respond safely and effectively to increasingly severe wildfire seasons. We are expending in excess of $150 million per week on fire suppression activities, and that will likely grow in the days and weeks ahead. Well over 26,000 firefighters and support personnel from federal, state and local agencies are deployed, along with 28 next generation and legacy air tankers, and additional aviation assets. We are now working with the U.S. Military and foreign partners, such as Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, to bring in additional resources.
http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/usdahome?contentid=2015/08/0236.xml (http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/usdahome?contentid=2015/08/0236.xml)
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This fire season has been the worst in [Washington] state’s recorded history....
This may be the first article I've seen with complaints that firefighters did nothing to protect his home. Resources are stretched so thin, they cannot be everywhere they are needed. For one woman, this was her third evacuation in five years....
Calmer weather gives wildfire crews a break
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/northwest/saturday-fire-update/ (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/northwest/saturday-fire-update/)
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NASA: Fires Ravaging Washington, Oregon, and California
http://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/goddard/fires-and-smoke-in-washington-oregon-and-california (http://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/goddard/fires-and-smoke-in-washington-oregon-and-california)
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Dozens of large wildfires are burning out of control around Lake Baikal in Siberia, which is the world's largest freshwater lake by volume and the deepest lake, at more than 5,300 feet deep.
Because of the composition of the soil in this part of the world, these fires are spewing unusually high amounts of carbon into the atmosphere, thereby contributing to global warming.
http://mashable.com/2015/08/24/massive-fires-are-surrounding-the-worlds-deepest-lake-in-siberia/ (http://mashable.com/2015/08/24/massive-fires-are-surrounding-the-worlds-deepest-lake-in-siberia/)
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From the arctic wildfire thread.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1232.msg61695.html#msg61695 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1232.msg61695.html#msg61695)
Locally, in Seattle over the weekend, the air quality was rated hazardous due to smoke blowing in from the Okanagan fires.
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Okanogan Complex: Washington State Wildfire Is Now Largest in State History, may burn until November
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/okanogan-complex-washington-wildfire-now-largest-state-history-n414916 (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/okanogan-complex-washington-wildfire-now-largest-state-history-n414916)
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I don't think I've seen smoke this thick before. Much thicker than the Washington fires.
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Photographs.
Baikal on fire - 'it feels like doomsday'
http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/n0369-baikal-on-fire-it-feels-like-doomsday/ (http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/n0369-baikal-on-fire-it-feels-like-doomsday/)
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@AirlineFlyer: It's crazy how many temporary flight restrictions are in place (red circles) because of fires in the Northwest [U.S.]. http://t.co/vyZNQWxk8k (http://t.co/vyZNQWxk8k)
https://twitter.com/airlineflyer/status/636276510526205953 (https://twitter.com/airlineflyer/status/636276510526205953)
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There Aren’t Enough Firefighters to Stop America’s West From Burning
An unprecedented 32,000 men and women are fighting blazes in what could be the most destructive fire season in history
In the Lower 48, fire season began in earnest the last week of July, when thunderstorms sent almost 2,300 lightning strikes into the drought-parched forests and foothills of Northern California. Two days later, smoke was rising from 250 new wildfires, Governor Jerry Brown called a state of emergency, and almost 10,000 firefighters from at least a dozen different fire agencies poured into Northern California.
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Accounting for insurance costs, damages to businesses and infrastructure, and the flash floods and mudslides caused by denuded slopes, this year’s fires will likely cost taxpayers $25 billion—and that’s if a whole town or city doesn’t burn, which is a distinct possibility. If that happens, according to a report by the Natural Resources Defense Council, the costs could double or triple: One hundred forty million Americans live in fire-prone regions, and $237 billion in property sits in those high-risk areas.
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“If you always do what you’ve always done, you’ll always get what you’ve always got,” says Tom Harbour, who, as the chief of the Forest Service’s fire department, sets the agenda for dozens of other federal, state, county, and municipal agencies and is effectively America’s wildland fire chief. “One hundred million people in the West can no longer expect to just pick up the phone, dial 911, and have a Hotshot come and save them.”
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In 1995, the Forest Service spent 16 percent of its budget fighting fires. Today, it’s 52 percent and rising. The agency’s $5 billion budget hasn’t grown, just the portion of it spent on fire management, which includes timber operations to thin forests. “You’re no longer the Forest Service,” his boss, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, has told him. “You’re a fire department.”
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Hotter temperatures make dense forests drier, and the fires more extreme. In California, a 1-degree temperature increase is associated with 35 percent more acres burned; in Montana, it’s twice the acreage. The conditions generate megafires, blazes far too intense for firefighters to safely stop. Arizona’s 2011 Wallow Fire was a megafire, and so were California’s 2013 Rim Fire, which burned 250,000 acres, and New Mexico’s 2011 Las Conchas. That biblical firestorm blackened 1.4 acres of mature forests every second for 14 hours straight.
Current fire policy, adopted in 2000, is actually sound, Harbour says. It allows incident commanders to make nuanced decisions about which fires, or even sections of fires, to fight and which fires to let burn; it encourages prescribed burning; and it allocates millions of dollars to thin dangerously dense forests around communities. But the policy is hard to practice, which is why, on the ground, it still looks like 1910 out there.
http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2015-wildfires-in-the-american-west/ (http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2015-wildfires-in-the-american-west/)
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Wildfires have now burned a massive 8 million acres across the U.S.
As of this writing, the United States remains at wildfire preparedness level 5 — the highest level — where it has been since Aug. 13.
There are only six other years that have seen more than 8 million acres burned — 2012, 2011, 2007, 2006, 2005, and 2004 — based on National Interagency Fire Center records that date back to 1960. It is hard not to notice that all of these years came since the year 2000.
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Considerably more acres are likely to burn this year, Jones noted, for several reasons. One is that many of the current large fires are at low containment levels. “A lot of those aren’t even at 50 percent containment, and some of those aren’t even estimating containment until the middle of October, and there’s a couple on here into November,” Jones noted.
There’s also the simple fact that there are four months left in 2015, and Southern California’s wildfire season can be at its worst in the fall, thanks to the notorious Santa Ana Winds.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/09/01/wildfires-have-now-burned-a-massive-8-million-acres-across-the-u-s-this-year/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/09/01/wildfires-have-now-burned-a-massive-8-million-acres-across-the-u-s-this-year/)
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Wildfires have now burned a massive 8 million acres across the U.S.
Plus over 11 million acres (http://www.ciffc.ca/firewire/current.php) (4.5 million hectares) burned in Canada this year so far. And a busy year for wildfires in Russia, too, although I can't find an estimate on the total there. I wouldn't be surprised if this year set a new northern hemisphere record.
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@UniformStories: A Washington #Firefighter’s picture. Accurately describes the Pacific Northwest. (via hannahvstheworld/tumblr) http://t.co/ReC2iJd3ip (http://t.co/ReC2iJd3ip)
https://twitter.com/uniformstories/status/640951424885526533 (https://twitter.com/uniformstories/status/640951424885526533)
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The U.S. Forest Service is spending over half its budget fighting fires.
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When the name of your town is San Andreas, wildfire risk is not the first thing that comes to mind.
California Town of 2,700 Warned Ahead of Explosive Wildfire
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/california-wildfire-grows-more-50-000-acres-amid-heat-drought-n426121 (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/california-wildfire-grows-more-50-000-acres-amid-heat-drought-n426121)
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California Wildfires: Thousands Flee as Valley and Butte Blazes Force Evacuations
Firefighters in northern California were battling a fast-moving wildfire early Sunday that had razed buildings, forced thousands to flee, and hospitalized four firefighters with second-degree burns.
The so-called Valley Fire in Lake County, northwest of Sacramento, erupted early Saturday afternoon and rapidly chewed through brush and trees parched from several years of drought, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire).
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-wildfires-thousand-flee-firefighters-battle-blazes-n426531 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-wildfires-thousand-flee-firefighters-battle-blazes-n426531)
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Valley fire spread with 'mind-boggling' speed, experts say
Experts said the Valley fire moved faster than any other in California’s recent history. In fewer than 12 hours, it had scorched 40,000 acres.
“There aren’t very many fires in California’s history that have done that. I don’t know if there really is a precedent for it,” said Daniel Swain, climate scientist at Stanford University. “This fire sort of broke the rules even relative to this incredible season that’s already occurred.”
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-california-wildfire-spread-with-mind-boggling-speed-20150913-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-california-wildfire-spread-with-mind-boggling-speed-20150913-story.html)
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California wildfires continue to grow as flames consume small towns
Mark Ghilarducci, director of the Governor's Office of Emergency Services, said this summer's fires are the most volatile he has seen in 30 years of emergency response work. The main cause behind the fast-spreading fires is dry conditions from the four-year drought, he said.
"The bushes, the trees have absolutely no moisture in them, and the humidities are so low that we are seeing these 'fire starts' just erupt into conflagrations," Ghilarducci said, according to the Sacramento Bee.
California's central Sierra Nevada mountains are running a precipitation deficit of 71 inches since 2011, with other areas running deficits closer to 40 to 50 inches of precipitation.
http://mashable.com/2015/09/14/valley-butte-california-wildfires/ (http://mashable.com/2015/09/14/valley-butte-california-wildfires/)
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More than 1,000 homes destroyed by 2 California fires. Temperatures returning to 90-100°F.
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/43381f0789ba4ce7947c557fe082a689/heat-spurs-fears-deadly-california-wildfires-could-revive (http://bigstory.ap.org/article/43381f0789ba4ce7947c557fe082a689/heat-spurs-fears-deadly-california-wildfires-could-revive)
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As Fires Grow, a New Landscape Appears in the West
Droughts are certainly not new, nor are large fires or even intense fires, Dr. Swetnam acknowledged. But the greater number of intense and large fires, and the repeated “burns on top of burns” like the ones that cleared the landscape around Cochiti canyon, are part of a pattern of worsening conditions exacerbated by the hotter droughts.
He has studied sections of many trees from the former forest near the canyon, which provided 300 years of fire history before the 2011 Las Conchas blaze, which ultimately burned 150,000 acres. “Obviously, the forest had survived many, many, surface fires,” he said. “But this fire — this fire — killed all of the trees in this area. “
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/22/science/as-fires-grow-a-new-landscape-appears-in-the-west.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/22/science/as-fires-grow-a-new-landscape-appears-in-the-west.html)
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U.S. nears wildfire record with more than 9 million acres burned
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/09/24/wildfires-acres-burned-9-million/72738140/ (http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/09/24/wildfires-acres-burned-9-million/72738140/)
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In Vicious Fire Season, an Endurance Test for California Crews
The firefighters collapse in driveways and fields to steal a moment’s rest. They sleep in their engines, sprawled across fire hoses or slumped over steering wheels. After days of hacking dead brush and setting defensive fires across flaming mountains, their 24-hour rest breaks are cut short when a new fire rears up.
In this relentless wildfire season, when fire crews and resources are stretched thin from the foothills of the Rockies to Alaska’s wilderness, the latest enemy confronting firefighters is not flame. It is grinding exhaustion.
“Everybody’s beat,” said Paul Fleckenstein, a battalion chief who spent the past two weeks fighting a wildfire that killed four people and destroyed 1,958 homes and other buildings here in the parched mountains 90 miles north of San Francisco. “There’s nothing left to give.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/28/us/in-vicious-fire-season-an-endurance-test-for-california-crews.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/28/us/in-vicious-fire-season-an-endurance-test-for-california-crews.html)
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The linked article indicates that due to its extreme number of wildfires it is asking for foreign assistance for fire fighters; however, with the current El Nino certain to gain strength the situation may become worst for some months to come:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/indonesia-asks-for-foreign-help-to-extinguish-forest-fires/2015/10/08/e64d7c50-6dbe-11e5-91eb-27ad15c2b723_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/indonesia-asks-for-foreign-help-to-extinguish-forest-fires/2015/10/08/e64d7c50-6dbe-11e5-91eb-27ad15c2b723_story.html)
Extract: "Indonesia has already deployed about 25,840 soldiers, police and fire personnel in six provinces to fight the fires, together with 25 aircraft used for water-dropping and cloud-seeding operations.
According to the Indonesian National Institute of Aeronautics and Space, 1,303 fires are currently burning across the country, mostly on Sumatra, Kalimantan and Sulawesi islands."
Edit - See also:
http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2015/1008/Why-is-Singapore-covered-in-smoke-and-what-can-be-done-about-it (http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2015/1008/Why-is-Singapore-covered-in-smoke-and-what-can-be-done-about-it)
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In the last El Nino of this magnitude, the fires during the winter of 97-98 provided enough carbon into the atmosphere to equal up to 13-40%% of the mean Anthropogenic CO2 emissions for that year.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v420/n6911/full/nature01131.html (http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v420/n6911/full/nature01131.html)
Abstract:
Tropical peatlands are one of the largest near-surface reserves of terrestrial organic carbon, and hence their stability has important implications for climate change1, 2, 3. In their natural state, lowland tropical peatlands support a luxuriant growth of peat swamp forest overlying peat deposits up to 20 metres thick4, 5. Persistent environmental change—in particular, drainage and forest clearing—threatens their stability2, and makes them susceptible to fire6. This was demonstrated by the occurrence of widespread fires throughout the forested peatlands of Indonesia7, 8, 9, 10 during the 1997 El Niño event. Here, using satellite images of a 2.5 million hectare study area in Central Kalimantan, Borneo, from before and after the 1997 fires, we calculate that 32% (0.79 Mha) of the area had burned, of which peatland accounted for 91.5% (0.73 Mha). Using ground measurements of the burn depth of peat, we estimate that 0.19–0.23 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon were released to the atmosphere through peat combustion, with a further 0.05 Gt released from burning of the overlying vegetation. Extrapolating these estimates to Indonesia as a whole, we estimate that between 0.81 and 2.57 Gt of carbon were released to the atmosphere in 1997 as a result of burning peat and vegetation in Indonesia. This is equivalent to 13–40% of the mean annual global carbon emissions from fossil fuels, and contributed greatly to the largest annual increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration detected since records began in 1957 (ref. 1).
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Smoke and fire for the sake of palm oil.
Indonesia urged to declare national disaster as haze worsens
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/10/08/indonesia-urged-to-hose-down-smoke-and-mirrors-policies/ (http://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/10/08/indonesia-urged-to-hose-down-smoke-and-mirrors-policies/)
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Smoke and fire for the sake of palm oil.
Indonesia urged to declare national disaster as haze worsens
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/10/08/indonesia-urged-to-hose-down-smoke-and-mirrors-policies/ (http://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/10/08/indonesia-urged-to-hose-down-smoke-and-mirrors-policies/)
It is absolutely heartbreaking, and similarly unnecessary. The development and exploitation of those forests across Indonesia have given utterly no benefit to the people who live there. And now, they suffer the consequences of the greed of the people ruining them.
So sad.
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Alaskan Forest Fires Could Make Climate Change Much Worse
What’s happening in Indonesian peatlands and Alaskan boreal forests could be happening all over the world. A study published this summer in Nature Communications concluded that fire weather seasons have, on average, grown 18.7 percent longer since 1979, and that the global burnable area affected by fire season has doubled. Ecosystems that shouldn’t burn at all, such as the temperate rainforests of Washington State and Oregon, are starting to combust. Climate change is setting the world on fire, and that’s creating a huge new source of greenhouse gas emissions—amplifying global warming, in a vicious feedback loop.
http://gizmodo.com/alaskan-forest-fires-could-make-climate-change-much-wor-1737629067 (http://gizmodo.com/alaskan-forest-fires-could-make-climate-change-much-wor-1737629067)
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There is no relief in sight. The world is burning.
http://robertscribbler.com/2015/10/21/too-furious-for-human-intervention-climate-feedbacks-spur-out-of-control-wildfires-from-indonesia-to-brazil/ (http://robertscribbler.com/2015/10/21/too-furious-for-human-intervention-climate-feedbacks-spur-out-of-control-wildfires-from-indonesia-to-brazil/)
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While tropical and boreal peat fires are moving sequestered carbon into the atmosphere and, in the case of boreal peat, may significantly increase the emissions rates from the decomposition of permafrost carbon, the carbon released from forests will be offset somewhat by new growth.
However, the Brazil and Indonesia fires appear to be spurred by agriculture transformations into (oil palm?) cultivated lands which will significantly reduce those regions' new growth in terms of wood mass per hectare going forward.
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Indonesia's fires labelled a 'crime against humanity' as 500,000 suffer
Haze has caused havoc, with schools in neighbouring Singapore and Malaysia shut down, flights grounded and events cancelled.
“Large parts of Indonesia have now been in a state of emergency for over a month. Why has there not been a nationally declared total fire ban advertised 24/7 on all television channels?” asked Dr. Eric Meijaard, an Indonesia-based associate professor at the University of Queensland, in a recent editorial in the Jakarta Globe.
“Why has there not been a clear message: you burn — you go to jail?”
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/26/indonesias-fires-crime-against-humanity-hundreds-of-thousands-suffer (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/26/indonesias-fires-crime-against-humanity-hundreds-of-thousands-suffer)
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http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/30/indonesia-fires-disaster-21st-century-world-media (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/30/indonesia-fires-disaster-21st-century-world-media)
"it is currently producing more carbon dioxide than the US economy. "
"After the last great conflagration, in 1997, there was a missing cohort in Indonesia of 15,000 children under the age of three, attributed to air pollution. This, it seems, is worse. The surgical masks being distributed across the nation will do almost nothing to protect those living in a sunless smog. Members of parliament in Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) have had to wear face masks during debates."
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Climate change fuels Australia bushfire threat
The bushfire season has started a month early in Australia, with record-breaking heat waves recorded across the continent in October contributing to several large fires destroying properties.
http://www.dw.com/en/climate-change-fuels-australia-bushfire-threat/a-18831755 (http://www.dw.com/en/climate-change-fuels-australia-bushfire-threat/a-18831755)
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http://robertscribbler.com/2015/11/30/brazils-great-amazon-rainforest-burns-as-parched-megacities-fall-under-existential-threat/ (http://robertscribbler.com/2015/11/30/brazils-great-amazon-rainforest-burns-as-parched-megacities-fall-under-existential-threat/)
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http://robertscribbler.com/2015/11/30/brazils-great-amazon-rainforest-burns-as-parched-megacities-fall-under-existential-threat/ (http://robertscribbler.com/2015/11/30/brazils-great-amazon-rainforest-burns-as-parched-megacities-fall-under-existential-threat/)
Interesting read. And disturbing.
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We may be witnessing the worst U.S. wildfire season in recorded history
Alaska accounts for more than half of this year’s total, with 770 wildfires that so far have torched 5.1 million acres. That’s almost five times the average of typical years there.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/in-a-warming-nation-possibly-the-worst-year-for-acres-burned-by-fire/2015/12/09/80de418c-9dc1-11e5-8728-1af6af208198_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/in-a-warming-nation-possibly-the-worst-year-for-acres-burned-by-fire/2015/12/09/80de418c-9dc1-11e5-8728-1af6af208198_story.html)
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We may be witnessing the worst U.S. wildfire season in recorded history
Alaska accounts for more than half of this year’s total, with 770 wildfires that so far have torched 5.1 million acres. That’s almost five times the average of typical years there.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/in-a-warming-nation-possibly-the-worst-year-for-acres-burned-by-fire/2015/12/09/80de418c-9dc1-11e5-8728-1af6af208198_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/in-a-warming-nation-possibly-the-worst-year-for-acres-burned-by-fire/2015/12/09/80de418c-9dc1-11e5-8728-1af6af208198_story.html)
It is not comforting to think that the impacts of wildfires are not included in AR5 climate models, when they are clearly increasing worldwide, including in the USA as indicated in the linked article:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/01/06/2015-wildfire-season-just-set-an-amazing-and-troubling-new-record/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/01/06/2015-wildfire-season-just-set-an-amazing-and-troubling-new-record/)
Extract: "U.S. wildfires just set an amazing and troubling new record.
Last year’s wildfire season set a record with more than 10 million acres burned. That’s more land than Maryland, the District and Delaware combined.
More than half the total was the result of mega-fires in Alaska, where dryness due to historically low mountain snowpack and a freak lightning storm created perfect conditions for a huge blaze. The nation’s overall toll was about 4 million acres more than the yearly average, scorching a record set in 2006."
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Site for Australian wildfires currently active.
http://www.firenorth.org.au/nafi3/ (http://www.firenorth.org.au/nafi3/)
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More on southern hemisphere wildfires. Australia and eastern Indonesia.
http://sentinel.ga.gov.au/#/main (http://sentinel.ga.gov.au/#/main)
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The linked (open access) reference projects a limited increase in wildfires under RCP 4.5, but a more significant increase in wildfires under RCP 8.5, by 2100:
Knorr, W., Jiang, L., and Arneth, A.: Climate, CO2 and human population impacts on global wildfire emissions, Biogeosciences, 13, 267-282, doi:10.5194/bg-13-267-2016, 2016.
http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/267/2016/bg-13-267-2016.html (http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/267/2016/bg-13-267-2016.html)
Abstract. Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilisation of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation.
Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ–GUESS–SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation–wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations use Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models. These were combined with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to assess the sensitivity of emissions to the effect of climate, CO2 and humans. In addition, two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model were applied. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and fast urbanisation, or continue to decline for high population growth and slow urbanisation. Only for high future climate change (RCP8.5), wildfire emissions start to rise again after ca. 2020 but are unlikely to reach the levels of 1900 by the end of the 21st century. We find that climate warming will generally increase the risk of fire, but that this is only one of several equally important factors driving future levels of wildfire emissions, which include population change, CO2 fertilisation causing woody thickening, increased productivity and fuel load and faster litter turnover in a warmer climate.
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Wildfires are forecast for tomorrow in the Central USA, due to high temperatures and winds in February. I note that paleo-data indicates that during recent past interglacial periods such wildfires were common throughout the Central USA:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/18/us/warm-weather-february/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/18/us/warm-weather-february/index.html)
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So, you in the US obviously don't want to live near your coastlines in the future, in places like New York or Florida. California will dry out and drown at the same time, and you don't want to live in the mid west due to drought, fires and tornadoes. Hmm.
Scandinavia might be one of the better places to live in the future, weatherwise that is, at least for a while.
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Canada (yah the 51st state north of the U.S. border land of snow and ice) has its good spots. Other then Vancouver which is going to get drowned almost all other heavily populated places are inland and for most places you do not have to dig too far down before you hit rock (Canadian Shield). You should see them dig basements for towers in Toronto.
As for wildfires. Until man can figure out some way to desalinate enough water to water all the land surface, wildfires are going to get worse and worse until everything turns to desert. Why? Man controlling water supplies and evaporation.
Both those problems (from the perspective of general land hydrology) are going to compound everything weather changes will do to the land. End result. Everything will dry up. Case in point. The Sahara. 4,000 years ago it fed empires. Now because the destruction that man was partly responsible for, desert. And to point out that piece of land greatly impacts weather systems in Europe, the development of hurricanes, even what happens in the Amazon.
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Wildfires are forecast for tomorrow in the Central USA, due to high temperatures and winds in February. I note that paleo-data indicates that during recent past interglacial periods such wildfires were common throughout the Central USA:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/18/us/warm-weather-february/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/18/us/warm-weather-february/index.html)
Not only did the forecasts of wildfire come true, but our new climate change conditions generated fire tornadoes across thousands of acres in Missouri:
http://abcnews.go.com/US/high-winds-spark-fire-tornadoes-missouri/story?id=37056702 (http://abcnews.go.com/US/high-winds-spark-fire-tornadoes-missouri/story?id=37056702)
Extract: "High winds caused fires to spread across thousands of acres in Missouri on Thursday, generating whirling fire tornadoes and wreaking havoc on thousands of acres of land.
“In my 39-year career, I have never seen anything like that before,” Dean Cull, Deputy Chief of the Southern Platte Fire Protection District told ABC News today."
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Oklahoma is suffering from a major outbreak of grass fires.
Fires from Tuesday are still burning across much of our state. Overnight winds shifted from south/southwest to north/northwest changing the direction of the fires.
Fires will continue to spread rapidly, with low humidity and winds gusting 40-45 mph.
http://m.koco.com/weather/fire-danger-still-very-high-wednesday/38889898 (http://m.koco.com/weather/fire-danger-still-very-high-wednesday/38889898)
UPDATE: Power lines blamed for massive Oklahoma wildfire
Oklahoma forestry officials say a large wildfire that has burned 86 square miles of range land was caused by power lines.
Oklahoma Forestry Services Director George Geissler says arcing power lines are to blame for the blaze in northwest Oklahoma, located about 170 miles northwest of Oklahoma City.
That area of Oklahoma saw wind gusts of 50 mph on Tuesday, which caused the power lines to arc into the dry grass, sparking the fire. Forestry spokeswoman Hannah Anderson says the blaze has not been contained at all, but that no new evacuation orders have been issued.
http://www.kake.com/home/headlines/Grassfires-breaking-out-in-Kansas-Oklahoma--374671991.html (http://www.kake.com/home/headlines/Grassfires-breaking-out-in-Kansas-Oklahoma--374671991.html)
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Mild winter, lower snowpack, early thaw, and now a forecast for warm dry spring weather: Environment Canada warns that this could be the set-up for another bad wildfire season across the True North.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/nwt-fire-season-weather-1.3522382 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/nwt-fire-season-weather-1.3522382)
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U.S. Forest Service: Wildfires burn twice as many acres each year than they did 40 years ago. https://twitter.com/forestservice/status/718878782418001920
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https://robertscribbler.com/2016/04/20/canadian-fire-season-starts-far-too-early-as-fort-st-john-residents-are-forced-to-flee-the-flames/
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And...
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-wildfires-rocky-view-fire-ban-1.3543426 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-wildfires-rocky-view-fire-ban-1.3543426)
It's going to be just one HELLUVA season, I can tell right now.
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Wildfire flames whip dangerously close to homes in Alberta
A state of emergency was declared near Fort McMurray in Alberta, Canada, May 1 as a wildfire engulfed parts of the area. According to reports, hundreds of people were forced to evacuate their homes. (Facebook/Brandon Serroul)
At least three wildfires are burning around an Alberta, Canada, town, and video shows the flames approaching businesses, homes and cars — way too close for comfort.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/05/02/wildfire-flames-whip-dangerously-close-to-homes-in-alberta-video/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/05/02/wildfire-flames-whip-dangerously-close-to-homes-in-alberta-video/)
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Fire season in Washington, Oregon, Idaho area was pretty bad last year. I certainly hope we can get a break this year.
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Alberta, Canada:
Fire jumps the highway, burns homes. City of Fort McMurray is evacuating.
#CBC reporters confirm homes are now burning in Fort McMurray in Beacon Hill and in the Centenial Trailer Park. #ymm
https://twitter.com/cbccalgary/status/727611087106002944
From her car fleeing the fire. @cbcian speaks to Fort McMurray resident. #ymmfire #ymm
https://twitter.com/patmorrell_cbc/status/727642641043578880
Startling video of the #ymmfire RT @jstuffcocrimlaw: My harrowing drive evacuating #ymm praying for my friends
https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/727638901402275842
Breaking: #ymmfire "beyond resources". Too dangerous to put men & aircraft between fire and #ymm @ctvedmonton #yeg
https://twitter.com/jsjamato/status/727583068760870913
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Wildfire flames whip dangerously close to homes in Alberta
A state of emergency was declared near Fort McMurray in Alberta, Canada, May 1 as a wildfire engulfed parts of the area. According to reports, hundreds of people were forced to evacuate their homes. (Facebook/Brandon Serroul)
At least three wildfires are burning around an Alberta, Canada, town, and video shows the flames approaching businesses, homes and cars — way too close for comfort.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/05/02/wildfire-flames-whip-dangerously-close-to-homes-in-alberta-video/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/05/02/wildfire-flames-whip-dangerously-close-to-homes-in-alberta-video/)
The have ordered the evacuation of the entire city, 61,000 people. Descriptions sound like something out of the apocalypse.
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And while we are at it...
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/05/03/the-fires-of-climate-change-are-burning-the-himalayas/
We are screwed this year, well and truly.
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Alberta, Canada: Fort McMurray Wildfire: 60,000 Evacuated Over Out-of-Control Blaze
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-60-000-evacuated-over-out-control-blaze-n567371 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-60-000-evacuated-over-out-control-blaze-n567371)
Ryan Maue: Temps pushed 90°F in northern Alberta on Tuesday, almost to 60ºN latitude
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/727710397910921216 (https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/727710397910921216)
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30,000 Fort McMurray residents forced to flee north as southern routes become impassable.
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More like 80,000 now. Also consider this: 87F max temperature at Fort Mc. 52F max New Jersey
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Pretty tough situation
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fthecanadianpress-a.akamaihd.net%2Fgraphics%2F2016%2Fstatic%2Fcp-alta-fort-mcmurray-fire.jpg&hash=1707c924db6fde42fe42eea03d16a39e)
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DrTskoul: note that Shared Humanity indicated 30,000 fled north. The other 50,000 went south.
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DrTskoul: note that Shared Humanity indicated 30,000 fled north. The other 50,000 went south.
Sth to be said about reading comprehension!! D'OH :o
Apologies...
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Meanwhile the words "climate change" or "global warming" have been noticeably absent from all media reports of either the record high temperatures Alberta has been experiencing this spring or of the wildfire.
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Actually ...
I've noticed several. Here's one (http://www.nationalobserver.com/2016/05/04/news/fort-mcmurray-fires-related-global-climate-crisis-says-elizabeth-may) Google reference:
Fort McMurray fires related to the global climate crisis, says Elizabeth ...
www.nationalobserver.com/.../fort-mcmurray-fires-related-global-climat (http://www.nationalobserver.com/.../fort-mcmurray-fires-related-global-climat)...
1 hour ago - The devastating destruction caused by wildfires in Fort McMurray is a sign of worse things to come if the planet doesn't scale back its ...
My hedge is that I'm not going to say if the National Observer is "mainstream media" or not, and it does use "climate crisis" and not "climate change".
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my niece had to evacuate, made it south of the city now waiting for a bus to edmonton... very tense evening last night for me for sure.
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my niece had to evacuate, made it south of the city now waiting for a bus to edmonton... very tense evening last night for me for sure.
Sorry to hear. I hope her house does not suffer any damagevent and that she stays safe.
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Yes Ms May was asked about climate change and the wildfires and her completely mundane factual response caused a huge uproar which became the subject of much main stream reporting. Much of it about whether it is appropriate to acknowledge climate change "at this time" or whether it is politicizing the tragedy.
For example:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/elizabeth-may-fort-mcmurray-climate-change-1.3566126 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/elizabeth-may-fort-mcmurray-climate-change-1.3566126)
Acknowledging scientific facts is not politicizing but trying to deny them is.
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The dash-cam video at the top of this article is nightmarish.
What Canada’s wildfire disaster looks like from Earth and space
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/05/05/what-canadas-wildfire-disaster-looks-like-from-earth-and-space/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/05/05/what-canadas-wildfire-disaster-looks-like-from-earth-and-space/)
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"At least 640,000 barrels per day of crude output is offline, according to Reuters calculations, roughly 16 percent of Canada's crude production. The outage is expected to climb as major players in the region cut production. [O/R]"
Well, I didn't expect the feedback loop of climate change to reduced carbon production to be quite so direct. Anybody else see the Irony in this?
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I agree: this video shows how frightening it must have been (probably Tuesday
evening/night - edit: 2 pm Tuesday afternoon driving through the suburb that lost 70% of the houses.).
The dash-cam video at the top of this article is nightmarish.
What Canada’s wildfire disaster looks like from Earth and space
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/05/05/what-canadas-wildfire-disaster-looks-like-from-earth-and-space/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/05/05/what-canadas-wildfire-disaster-looks-like-from-earth-and-space/)
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The Fort McMurray Disaster: Getting Beyond “Is It Climate Change?”
By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters, May 5
We don’t need attribution studies to realize that our struggling firefighting resources must be brought up to speed to match the evolving picture of longer fire seasons and more dangerous fires. A U.S. Forest Service report issued last summer sounded the alarm: “...within a decade, the agency will spend more than two-thirds of its budget to battle ever-increasing fires, while mission-critical programs that can help prevent fires in the first place such as forest restoration and watershed and landscape management will continue to suffer. Meanwhile...these catastrophic blazes are projected to burn twice as many acres by 2050.” It is no small irony that Wednesday, May 4, was International Firefighters Day.
In their deadline coverage of the Fort McMurray event, journalists such as Andrew Freedman (Mashable) have done a laudable job pointing out the complex but real connections between climate change and wildfire. We have much more to learn about exactly why and how the atmosphere is moving in directions that favor devastating fire--but for now, perhaps it’s enough simply to know that the dice are being loaded. Together with the many other threats posed by climate change, this should be more than enough motivation to get serious about emission cuts. The vast and profound effects of human-produced greenhouse gases--from intensified downpours and drought impacts to ocean acidification and sea-level rise--call for a sustained commitment to change that transcends any single disaster, even one as compelling as the nightmare unfolding in Fort McMurray.
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/the-fort-mcmurray-disaster-getting-beyond-is-it-climate-change (https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/the-fort-mcmurray-disaster-getting-beyond-is-it-climate-change)
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INCREASED FOREST FIRES NOT INCLUDED IN CLIMATE MODELS
I expect many here will know this but I recently received a reply from UK Department of Energy and Climate Change which included
the models used vary in what they include, and some feedbacks are absent as the understanding and modelling of these is not yet advanced enough to include. From those you raise, this applies to melting permafrost emissions, forest fires and wetlands decomposition.
http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/carbon-budgets-a-straightforward-answer-from-decc (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/carbon-budgets-a-straightforward-answer-from-decc)
P.S. I hope the rain comes soon in Alberta.
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So, is Fort McMurray the first city lost to climate change?
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climate change ? that might be Mohenjo Daro/Harappa
anthro climate change ? the same perhaps, Ruddiman is right.
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I would expect that a wildfire heading towards the open pit that is a the tar sands oil production of Suncor would concentrate their minds. :o
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How big is the Fort McMurray wildfire? How #ymm fire's size compares to London, NYC & Toronto
http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/06/world/canada-fire-city-comparison/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/06/world/canada-fire-city-comparison/index.html)
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CBC Nova Scotia: Wow. #FortMcMurray, before and after [GIF] via @bahadorz #ymmfire #ymm #fortmacfire #fortmac
https://twitter.com/cbcns/status/728645448181919744
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P.S. I hope the rain comes soon in Alberta.
Alberta water comes from snow melt. It is on the dry side of the mountains. The only time it gets a lot of rain is when a blocking front forces a wet system back into the mountains.
"At least 640,000 barrels per day of crude output is offline, according to Reuters calculations, roughly 16 percent of Canada's crude production. The outage is expected to climb as major players in the region cut production. [O/R]"
Well, I didn't expect the feedback loop of climate change to reduced carbon production to be quite so direct. Anybody else see the Irony in this?
That is provided that the fire does not get deep into the ground and start burning the tar sands, then things could get much worse on the GHG front as far as that area is concerned.
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Largest in the world, this new Boeing 747 Global Supertanker can fly anywhere on the planet with one fuel stop, allowing it to fight off-shore fires as well as fires in remote areas. It can carry two different fire suppressants at once, and add air to the mix, so a drop causes less damage.
Video:
http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/video/firefighting-airplane-global-supertanker-38911479 (http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/video/firefighting-airplane-global-supertanker-38911479)
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That is provided that the fire does not get deep into the ground and start burning the tar sands, then things could get much worse on the GHG front as far as that area is concerned.
Per the linked Scribbler article: "Shift in the Wind May Push Gargantuan Fort McMurray Fire Toward Tar Sands Facilities on Saturday"
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/05/06/shift-in-the-wind-may-push-gargantuan-fort-mcmurray-fire-toward-tar-sands-facilities-on-saturday/
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P.S. I hope the rain comes soon in Alberta.
Most oil sands are at least 40 feet deep...
Alberta water comes from snow melt. It is on the dry side of the mountains. The only time it gets a lot of rain is when a blocking front forces a wet system back into the mountains.
"At least 640,000 barrels per day of crude output is offline, according to Reuters calculations, roughly 16 percent of Canada's crude production. The outage is expected to climb as major players in the region cut production. [O/R]"
Well, I didn't expect the feedback loop of climate change to reduced carbon production to be quite so direct. Anybody else see the Irony in this?
That is provided that the fire does not get deep into the ground and start burning the tar sands, then things could get much worse on the GHG front as far as that area is concerned.
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A GIF worth 1,000 words:
How the ForMacFire spread, up to and including [Saturday]:
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/729077106202681345 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/729077106202681345)
Edit:
Monster Canada Wildfire Continues to Grow, Could Reach Saskatchewan
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/monster-canada-wildfire-continues-grow-people-flee-safety-n570046 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/monster-canada-wildfire-continues-grow-people-flee-safety-n570046)
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Emergency Evacuation notice issed last night for northern Saskatchewan.
@AlertOntario: THE FIRE IS IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN PLEASE BEGIN PREPARING FOR EVACUATION. PACK ESSENTIALS
https://twitter.com/alertontario/status/729077180135821312
@AlertOntario: ALERT fire is in Northern SASK please prepare to evacuate, the fire has doubled in size in just 24 hours and is expected to double
https://twitter.com/alertontario/status/729080915327102976
@AlertOntario: Fires are in the North Of Saskatchewan for your safety please start leaving the North ASAP. Pack all essentials now
https://twitter.com/alertontario/status/729090723765719041
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:'(
@Cmdr_Hadfield: A very useful up-to-the-minute map of Fort McMurray, using space-based images http://www.google.org/crisismap/2016-fort-mcmurray-fire. (http://www.google.org/crisismap/2016-fort-mcmurray-fire.) Thanks @google
https://twitter.com/cmdr_hadfield/status/729333989794848768 (https://twitter.com/cmdr_hadfield/status/729333989794848768)
http://www.google.org/crisismap/2016-fort-mcmurray-fire (http://www.google.org/crisismap/2016-fort-mcmurray-fire)
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For those who like good info resources, this is a great site for Canada. http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/maps/fm3?type=fwih (http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/maps/fm3?type=fwih)
Use the different links on the upper left side to see what the codings mean.
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compilation map showing structures that were burnt in fort mc
https://medium.com/@mcmurraymap/damage-assessment-may-5th-2016-eb91d5efe45#.o8st14nns
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http://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-expected-to-stretch-more-than-2000-square-kilometres-sunday (http://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-expected-to-stretch-more-than-2000-square-kilometres-sunday)
Good News: The wildfire hasn't grown as much as feared
“We expect to hold the fire,” said Chad Morison with Alberta Wildfire, estimating the size at just 161,000 hectares [~= 620 sq miles ] at noon Sunday, much smaller than previously expected. On Saturday, fire officials said they expected it to hit 200,000 hectares by midnight.
The fire did not reach the closest Suncor and Syncrude oilsands sites, and the Nexen Long Lake facility appears to have sustained minimal damage. Inside the city, fire crews are still putting out hotspots. They were able to protect most of the city’s critical infrastructure, including its hospital and water treatment facility.
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Photos from Astronaut Tim Peake aboard the International Space Station : Smoke from #Alberta fires now covering vast areas of North America across to Atlantic coast. #ymmfire
https://twitter.com/astro_timpeake/status/729375208654688257
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Photos from Astronaut Tim Peake aboard the International Space Station : Smoke from #Alberta fires now covering vast areas of North America across to Atlantic coast. #ymmfire
https://twitter.com/astro_timpeake/status/729375208654688257
I imagine that should generate some global cooling. I would think that is a lot of solar radiation being blocked. The problem is when the particles fall on snow or ice, raising it's albedo, resulting in increased interaction of solar radiation with the surface. I wonder which one is greater.
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Notes on black carbon as a short lived GHG.
http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/shortlived/shortlived.htm (http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/shortlived/shortlived.htm)
Also if you want ot read more:
http://www.arb.ca.gov/research/single-project.php?row_id=65207 (http://www.arb.ca.gov/research/single-project.php?row_id=65207)
"Black carbon is a component of fine particulate matter, which has been identified as a leading environmental risk factor for premature death. It is produced from the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass burning, particularly from older diesel engines and forest fires. Black carbon warms the atmosphere by absorbing solar radiation, influences cloud formation, and darkens the surface of snow and ice, which accelerates heat absorption and melting. Diesel particulate matter emissions are a major source of black carbon and are also toxic air contaminants that have been regulated and controlled in California for several decades in order to protect public health"
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Black carbon may live as a GHG short time. The thing is when it lands it can live a long time. See Dark Snow.
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http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-insurance-rates-1.3573895 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-insurance-rates-1.3573895)
Insurance companies forced to fork over billions of dollars to cover damages from the Fort McMurray wildfire will remain financially sound despite their enormous losses, but some homeowners will likely face spikes in their premiums.
"It's quite possible we could see some rate increases, probably regionally," said Jason Mercer, an analyst at Moody's Canada Inc. "Can't imagine it will be wholesale across-the-board rate increases."
Mercer said anyone who lives near a dry forest or somewhere particularly vulnerable to wildfire risks could see their rates spike.
Governments may waffle about things that need to be done to bring about CC, the insurance industry may become the biggest reason CO2 levels will be reigned in. Increasing costs will force about changes that can help drop costs.
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Governments may waffle about things that need to be done to bring about CC, the insurance industry may become the biggest reason CO2 levels will be reigned in. Increasing costs will force about changes that can help drop costs.
Increasing insurance rates might have an effect on stopping too much building near high fire risk/flood risks... (or perhaps it is more building get done then people find themselves caught out unable to afford insurance or sell property then building rates perhaps begin to slow)
but how does insurance force limits in CO2 emissions? Higher insurance rates if policyholders flies more than once a year or drives more than 30000 km or something like that? Why? Emissions of any one insurance company's policy holders will be swamped by other people who are not policyholders and any ins co that did that would be undercut by others. Not insure ff industry? That is just cutting out a market opportunity for the insurance cos. So can't see anything like that happening.
Insurance companies like uncorrelated risk which they can mitigate through aggregation and dislike correlated risks like CC. Insurance companies may have to have much higher rates for correlated risk like CC if big events become a lot more frequent or stop insuring against CC related event. Higher rates or withdrawal of cover leaves policyholders uninsured and unhappy and possibly feeling more action on CC is needed but I don't see that that causes insurance to somehow mandate cuts in emissions. Maybe eventual indirect effect of changing opinion on need for more CC action and through that political pressure for more action but this seems a bit indirect.
Perhaps I am missing something?
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The linked Scribbler article is entitled: "Massive Wildfires Erupt in Northeast China as Lake Baikal Blazes Ignite"
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/05/10/massive-wildfires-erupt-in-northeast-china-as-lake-baikal-blazes-ignite/
Extract: "An extreme heatwave and drought in East Asia is now sparking extraordinarily large wildfires in mostly unsettled regions of Northeast China near the Russian border."
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Canada wildfire - what are the environmental impacts?
In addition to the estimated $9bn damage to Fort McMurray, ‘the beast’ will affect forests, carbon emissions, air and water pollution and waste.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/11/canada-wildfire-environmental-impacts-fort-mcmurray (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/11/canada-wildfire-environmental-impacts-fort-mcmurray)
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The linked article discusses how the Fort McMurray wildfire will result in many more months of carbon emissions from the associated smoldering peat:
http://www.takepart.com/feature/2016/05/13/fort-mcmurray-fires?cmpid=pt-tw (http://www.takepart.com/feature/2016/05/13/fort-mcmurray-fires?cmpid=pt-tw)
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After Fort McMurray: where are the world's most fire-prone cities?
Images of the devastated Canadian city show just how destructive fire can be to urban populations. But the risk is greatest in informal settlements, where high population density and low-grade construction can be a deadly combination.
http://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/may/16/fort-mcmurray-alberta-canada-worlds-most-fire-prone-cities (http://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/may/16/fort-mcmurray-alberta-canada-worlds-most-fire-prone-cities)
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The Fort McMurray wildfire is still spreading:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-wildfire-enbridge-idUSKCN0Y71ZT (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-wildfire-enbridge-idUSKCN0Y71ZT)
Extract: "A massive wildfire burning around the oil sands hub of Fort McMurray was growing and moving rapidly north late on Monday, forcing firefighters to shift their focus to protecting major oil sand facilities north of the city, officials said."
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The Fort McMurray wildfire continues to intensify and has now reached at least one tarsand camp:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fort-mcmurray-oilsands-work-camp-catches-fire-1.3585921 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fort-mcmurray-oilsands-work-camp-catches-fire-1.3585921)
Extract: "The fire in Fort McMurray has hit at least one of the oil camps north of the city after the province ordered new mandatory evacuations for that region Monday night."
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Alberta reviews Fort McMurray re-entry plan as flames spread north
The Alberta government is taking a second look at its plan to allow people to return home to Fort McMurray after explosions damaged some homes in the city and a raging wildfire spread north toward oilsands plants.
...
Two explosions within Fort McMurray damaged 10 homes and poor air quality forced staff working to clean the hospital and natural gas utility workers to leave, she said.
http://www.nationalobserver.com/2016/05/17/news/alberta-reviews-fort-mcmurray-re-entry-plan-flames-spread-north (http://www.nationalobserver.com/2016/05/17/news/alberta-reviews-fort-mcmurray-re-entry-plan-flames-spread-north)
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Per the linked article, the Fort McMurray wildfire has grown 40% in the past two days:
https://news.vice.com/article/the-fort-mcmurray-fire-has-grown-40-percent-in-two-days
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Scribbler has another excellent article on the Fort McMurray wildfire:
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/05/17/the-beast-growls-warming-induced-wildfire-again-doubles-in-size-burns-tar-sands-workers-camp/
Extract: "Overall, more than 530,000 hectares have now burned throughout Canada. This total is more than 24 times the amount of land consumed in fires by this time last year. During the 20th Century, large May burn extents of the kind Canada is experiencing during 2016 were unheard of."
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A friend's daughter lives/lived in Ft. Mac. She is still displaced primarily due to the air pollution levels mentioned in your linked article, and has no idea of when they will be able to return. Her husband works for a paving company who has laid off everyone. ($0 paychecks)
I asked whether the oil companies were at least paying their employees, but she had no idea. Many workers have returned to their out of province homes while the rest are still filling the hotels of BC, Alberta & Saskatchewan.
Another article mentioned the figure of ~$9B to rebuild & I'd wondered if the money might be better spent building renewable energy systems, E-vehicles, or possibly seed money for a massive hydro electric dam. At some time the tar sands needs to be shut down. It's unlikely that another opportunity, where insurance money would help defray closeup/cleanup costs, will ever come along.
Terry
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CNN: Alberta wildfire out of control: 1,370 square miles torched, and counting
The mammoth inferno devastating northern Alberta has now destroyed more than 877,000 acres -- more than four times the size of New York City.
Well over 1,700 firefighters are trying to get a grip on the blaze, which started May 1 near Fort McMurray. But as of Wednesday, the fire is still 0% contained, the Alberta Agriculture and Forestry department said. Even worse: The blaze is marching east toward Saskatchewan and will likely reach the province Wednesday, Alberta wildfire official Chad Morrison said.
Also near the path: major oil sands used to process bitumen, CNN partner CBC reported. The inferno could actually burn through the winter and into next year, University of Alberta wildfire professor MIke Flannigan said.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/18/americas/alberta-wildfire-canada-fort-mcmurray/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/18/americas/alberta-wildfire-canada-fort-mcmurray/index.html)
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The Fort McMurray Fire (Horse River Fire) has enlarged its footprint over the last two days to 422,898 hectares (1,045,022 acres, 1,632 square miles). On May 16 it was mapped at 284,000 hectares (702,000 acres, 1,097 square miles). The east side of the fire is approximately 3 miles (5 kilometers) from the Saskatchewan border.
Fort McMurray Fire expands to 1 million acres (http://wildfiretoday.com/2016/05/16/fort-mcmurray-fire-update-may-16-2016/) (UPDATE at 8:50 a.m. MDT, May 18, 2016)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwildfiretoday.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2016%2F05%2FFtMacFire-332-am-5-18-2016.jpg&hash=38605422d984b39b0642016f1b7285c9)
Map of the Fort McMurray Fire (Horse River Fire). The red line was the approximate perimeter the morning of May 16, 2016. The white line was from May 17. The dots represent heat detected by a satellite within the last 24 hours, with red being the most recent, as late as 3.32 a.m. MDT May 18, 2016. Click on the map to see a larger version.
On Tuesday the fire reached the Black Sands Camp and burned the Executive Lodge with its 665 units in spite of the building’s sprinkler system. It next spread to the Noralta Camp that houses 3,000 people, but at the last report firefighters held the fire at bay with no damage to the structures.
Two houses recently exploded in Fort McMurray, damaging ten other nearby homes. The causes are unknown.
...
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Wildfires rage in Siberia and Russian Far East (http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0674-wildfires-rage-in-siberia-and-russian-far-east/)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fsiberiantimes.com%2FPICTURES%2FECOLOGY%2FWildfires-May-2016%2Finside_map.jpg&hash=7204492054ddb8614d6b0f0cd81018fd)
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The scale was less than in Canada's dramatic fires, but is a reminder of the grave threat annually facing many Russian regions. Head of the Federal Forestry Agency Ivan Valentik blames people for much of the carnage.
'99% of all fires in the Amur region, the Trans-Baikal region and Buryatia are caused by people who set fire to grass,' he said. He warned that the tradition of burning dried grass ahead of the sowing season - popular since Soviet times - is now against the law.
...
It appears the Siberian fires are mostly in southern Siberia. Some of the smoke, however, has been going into the Arctic. Interesting that the article says Canada's fires are on a larger scale.
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Per the linked article, it is time to learn to adapt to megafires:
http://gizmodo.com/its-time-to-adapt-to-megafires-1775565260 (http://gizmodo.com/its-time-to-adapt-to-megafires-1775565260)
Extract: "Earlier this month, a devastating wildfire swept through the Canadian city of Fort McMurray, prompting more than 88,000 residents to evacuate. As the out-of-control blaze continues to swell in size, a bigger picture is starting to emerge: major fires like this are the future, and we’d better get used to it.
Since 1979, the duration of the fire season has increased by 20 percent worldwide. The global land area affected has doubled, meaning regions that were once too wet to burn are going up in smoke. Worst of all, “megafires” that cover hundreds of thousands of acres, move at hypersonic speeds, and swallow entire cities whole are now cropping up with alarming regularity. These raging infernos weren’t even on our radar until the late 1980s, but by the end of the 21st century, scientists say they could become the norm."
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Scribbler has another excellent article on the Fort McMurray wildfire, indicating that it continues to grow, is zero percent contained and likely will continue through the boreal summer (and may continue into the boreal winter):
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/05/19/fort-mcmurray-fire-zero-percent-contained-1-2-million-acres-in-size-and-crossing-border-into-saskatchewan/
Extract: "By mid-afternoon Thursday, reports were coming in that the Fort McMurray Fire had again grown larger. Jumping to 1.2 million acres in size, or about 2,000 square miles, the blaze leapt the border into Saskachewan even as it ran through forested lands surrounding crippled tar sand facilities. It’s a fire now approaching twice the size of Rhode Island. A single inferno that, by itself, has now consumed more land than every fire that burned throughout the whole of Alberta during 2015.
….
With cooler weather and a 60 percent chance of rain today, fire conditions may abate somewhat. Rain predicted on Saturday could also aid in firefighting efforts. However, it is likely that this massive fire will continue to burn over Alberta and Saskatchewan throughout a good part of the summer.
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Fort McMurray itself now sits firmly under a northbound flow of airs invading the polar region. Such powerful meridional flows feature much warmer than normal air temperatures and heightened risk for drought and wildfires. These zones have formed over recent years due to a weakening of the Jet Stream — which has been set off by sea ice loss and an assymetric warming of the High Arctic. Such polar amplification has also set off permafrost thaw, aided in pine beetle expansion northward toward and into the Arctic zone, and generated temperatures hotter than the range in which boreal forests typically survive and grow. Permafrost thaw combines with tree death to produce added fuels for fires even as warming provides more lightning strike ignition sources. This combination of global warming related factors has resulted in large wildfires occurring in the Arctic at 10 times their mid 20th Century ignition rate and is aiding in a greatly increased risk of fire throughout the boreal forest zone."
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U.S. Forest Service: Longer fire seasons; more frequent, bigger, more severe, and more costly #wildfires
https://twitter.com/forestservice/status/734738408669650945
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Hundreds of undamaged Fort McMurray homes declared unsafe due to toxic ash
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/hundreds-of-undamaged-fort-mcmurray-homes-declared-unsafe-due-to-toxic-ash-1.3607928 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/hundreds-of-undamaged-fort-mcmurray-homes-declared-unsafe-due-to-toxic-ash-1.3607928)
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Siberian forest fires may be left to burn, according to The Siberian Times.
On 26 May, some about 129,000 hectares of forests, mainly in the Republic of Buryatia, and TransBaikal and Amur regions were on fire. Up to 219 million hectares fall into the category of 'distant and hard-to-reach territories' which could be left to burn if they caught fire.
29 May 2016
A quarter of all Russian forests, 89% of stocks in Sakha Republic, could be left to burn, even though they are essential to fight global warming.
These vast tracts of forest have been labelled 'distant and hard-to-reach territories', and as such it is officially permitted not to extinguish forest fires if they do not constitute a threat to settlements or if a fire fighting operation is extremely expensive.
At the same time, there is official recognition that some regions in Siberia are underreporting the extent of forest fires for 'political reasons', an accusation long made by environmental campaigners.
Some 86% of forest in Sakha - also known as Yakutia, and the largest constituent of the Russian Federation - is deemed to fall into the category of 'distant and hard-to-reach territories', according to reports.
Some 219 million hectares - or 2.19 million square kilometres, a larger area than either Saudi Arabia or Greenland - is covered by the definition. This amounts to quarter of all forests in Russia, where trees - especially in Siberia - are seen as an essential brake on climate change.
A new decree in Sakha Republic says the emergency services may stop extinguishing fires in such territories if there is no threat to residential areas, or if costs are disproportionate. The move comes as the forest fire season is once more biting across Siberia.
On 26 May, some about 129,000 hectares of forests, mainly in the Republic of Buryatia, and TransBaikal and Amur regions were on fire. Greenpeace Russia believes that officials and regional authorities intentionally announce figures underestimate the scale of forest fires. According to the environmental activists, open satellite sources indicated fires covering up to 3 million hectares of forests as of 23 May.
Rosleskhoz - the Federal Agency for Forestry, a federal executive body responsible for oversight of forestry issues - admitted that official figures from regions may be at odds with the actual area of raging fires. Among other reasons this could be 'because of political factors'.
The agency promised to provide correct data about damage at the end of the [fire] season.
Nikolai Krotov, deputy head of Rosleskhoz, said: 'We have concerns about differences in Amur region, Buryatia, Chelyabinsk and Irkutsk regions. We don't rule out that there can be political factors, subjective factors, when information is submitted in a different way.'
Greenpeace has argued for information in real time, not at the end of the season, so fire-fighting resources can be switched between regions to be deployed in most needed areas.
Rosleskhoz told Kommersant newspaper that the move by the authorities in Yakutsk is 'not a refusal to extinguish forest fires'.
'It shouldn't be ruled out that the local forestry service will extinguish all the fires because significant part of the republic's population leads a nomadic lifestyle and is always moving around,' said a source.
Mikhail Kreindlin, an expert on specially protected areas at Greenpeace Russia, said other countries sometimes have a rule 'not to extinguish fire of natural origin' but this practice is not always successful because there is always a risk that the heart of the blaze may grow bigger.
He pointed to massive forest fires in Canada which resulted in the evacuation of up to 80,000 people in recent weeks. Greenpeace Russia also warned that failing to tackle forest fires can destroy rare animals.
The Siberian Times (http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0688-forests-on-fire-no-attempt-will-be-made-to-extinguish-219-million-hectares-of-burning-trees/).
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Siberian forest fires may be left to burn, according to The Siberian Times.
On 26 May, some about 129,000 hectares of forests, mainly in the Republic of Buryatia, and TransBaikal and Amur regions were on fire. Up to 219 million hectares fall into the category of 'distant and hard-to-reach territories' which could be left to burn if they caught fire.
Now that we have problems receiving Arctic sea ice data from NSIDC and JAXA, it is a good time to focus on land. Unfortunately, doesn't look good. These images are the Climate Reanalyzer forescast for June 3rd to June 5th. I focus on the heat hour on Asia and I wonder the way this heat will promote permafrost melt and forest fires on the end of spring and summer.
Edit: Consequences that will become causes of global warming.
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Some chances of rain this week at limited regions in Asia, but in general, dry conditions.
We cannot make a conclusion with a few images, but they are part of a possible tendency. With permafrost melting and forest fires in Nothern Asia and Canada, humanity should be concerned that anthropogenic global warming could become the beginning of natural global warming.
Climate Reanalyzer (http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/#ARC-LEA)
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http://wildfiretoday.com/2016/05/30/environmental-activists-estimate-7-million-acres-have-burned-in-siberia/ (http://wildfiretoday.com/2016/05/30/environmental-activists-estimate-7-million-acres-have-burned-in-siberia/)
Granted Greenpeace for their own reasons sometimes do exaggerate things, but remember in Siberia you have the problem that a lot of these are peat fires and some of these may not be new fires, but fires that are now resurfacing again not did not die out from last year.
In Canada, you do not have as much peat, because of the scraping down to rock from the last ice age.
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Saw this earlier too
http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0688-forests-on-fire-no-attempt-will-be-made-to-extinguish-219-million-hectares-of-burning-trees/ (http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0688-forests-on-fire-no-attempt-will-be-made-to-extinguish-219-million-hectares-of-burning-trees/)
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Ah, that's the story I linked to earlier at #108. The Siberian Times headline's a bit misleading: the 219 million hectares aren't actually burning, they are just in an area designated as 'distant and hard-to-reach territories' which could be left to burn if they caught fire.
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Spike in Alaska wildfires is worsening global warming, US says
The devastating rise in Alaska’s wildfires is making global warming even worse than scientists expected, US government researchers said on Wednesday.
The sharp spike in Alaska’s wildfires, where more than 5 million acres burned last year, are destroying a main buffer against climate change: the carbon-rich boreal forests, tundra and permafrost that have served as an enormous carbon sink.
Northern wildfires must now be recognised as a significant driver of climate change – and not just a side-effect, according to the report from the US Geological Survey.
“This is one of the surprises that we haven’t talked about much,” said Virginia Burkett, chief climate scientist at the USGS. “It has tremendous implications for the carbon that is locked up in Alaska soils and vegetation.”
A record wildfire year – such as 2015 which was the worst in Alaska for a decade – had a measurable effect on the release of carbon dioxide and methane, which are the main drivers of climate change.
“Our scientists found that the balance of carbon storage versus release in Alaska was strongly linked with wildfires,” Burkett said. “In years where there was high wildfire activity the net carbon balance declined dramatically, and then it would rebuild in the absence of fire.”
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/01/alaska-wildfires-climate-change (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/01/alaska-wildfires-climate-change)
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This shows the complexity of understanding and predicting future events.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/09/arctic-carbon-bomb-may-never-happen-say-scientists (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/09/arctic-carbon-bomb-may-never-happen-say-scientists) shows that physics of leaks prove a slow release. Problem is that it will happen if no other events come into play. Wildfires on the other hand introduce an entirely different unpredictable element into play. It is unpredictable in that you can not tell when or how much it will happen. One thing you can be sure of is that it will happen. Question will be how much of the stored carbon it will release when it passes by.
In other words you may still end up having a bomb go off, just not as a direct result of melt.
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http://grist.org/climate-energy/the-zombie-wildfires-have-awakened-in-alaska/ (http://grist.org/climate-energy/the-zombie-wildfires-have-awakened-in-alaska/)
'The Soda Creek Fire raged through 16,500 acres in the same area last summer, according to Alaska Dispatch News. It smoldered underground, survived the winter, and finally reignited on Sunday, spreading to an acre within an hour.'
'Fire can burrow deep into the roots of old-growth trees, where it burns slowly, insulated by a thick, moisture-absorbing blanket of decomposing moss, leaves, and twigs on the forest floor. And once the ground freezes, the embers are sealed in, sometimes under feet of snow. Come spring, the ground warms up, the surrounding brush and trees dry out, and the fire can spring back to life.'
That will be having a nice impact on decomposition of calthrates in permafrost!
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New USGS Report Calculates Alaska’s Greenhouse Gas Potential (https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/content/new-report-calculates-alaska%E2%80%99s-greenhouse-gas-potential)
The scientists found that Alaska’s ecosystems currently capture as much carbon as they lose to the atmosphere. However, they said, rising temperatures, more wildfires and thawing permafrost still could tip the balance and make Alaska a net carbon source. That would further increase the concentration of gases that trap the sun’s energy and warm the Earth’s atmosphere.
Increases in wildfires are not accounted for in the CMIP5 models - the UK department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) has confirmed (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/carbon-budgets-a-straightforward-answer-from-decc/).
the models used vary in what they include, and some feedbacks are absent as the understanding and modelling of these is not yet advanced enough to include. From those you raise, this applies to melting permafrost emissions, forest fires and wetlands decomposition.
DECC avoid saying how this affects the remaining carbon budget
DECC doesn’t estimate the remaining global carbon budget, however others such as the Global Carbon Project (http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/index.htm) have estimated updates to the IPCC’s budget, based on emissions since 2010.
Anyone know how much the budgets should be decreased?
My rather rough calculations of the remaining budgets per person in the world - without reduction for missing feedbacks give
The remaining carbon budget for a 66% chance of avoiding 1.5˚C becomes
21 tonnes CO2 per person: 4 years to 1.5˚C
The remaining carbon budget for a 66% chance of avoiding 2.0˚C becomes…
85 tonnes CO2 per person: 16 years to 2.0˚C
These are for world average per person emissions. The populations of rich countries average much higher emissions.
P.S. I must admit some confusion between CO2 and CO2e in the calculations.
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Good read on the people, the tar sands, and the Fort McMurray fire.
Canada’s $6.9 Billion Wildfire Is the Size of Delaware—and Still Out of Control
The story of one Alberta family’s amazing escape from “The Beast.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-wildfire-fort-mcmurray/ (http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-wildfire-fort-mcmurray/)
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New USGS Report Calculates Alaska’s Greenhouse Gas Potential (https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/content/new-report-calculates-alaska%E2%80%99s-greenhouse-gas-potential)
The scientists found that Alaska’s ecosystems currently capture as much carbon as they lose to the atmosphere. However, they said, rising temperatures, more wildfires and thawing permafrost still could tip the balance and make Alaska a net carbon source. That would further increase the concentration of gases that trap the sun’s energy and warm the Earth’s atmosphere.
Increases in wildfires are not accounted for in the CMIP5 models - the UK department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) has confirmed (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/carbon-budgets-a-straightforward-answer-from-decc/).
the models used vary in what they include, and some feedbacks are absent as the understanding and modelling of these is not yet advanced enough to include. From those you raise, this applies to melting permafrost emissions, forest fires and wetlands decomposition.
DECC avoid saying how this affects the remaining carbon budget
DECC doesn’t estimate the remaining global carbon budget, however others such as the Global Carbon Project (http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/index.htm) have estimated updates to the IPCC’s budget, based on emissions since 2010.
Anyone know how much the budgets should be decreased?
My rather rough calculations of the remaining budgets per person in the world - without reduction for missing feedbacks give
The remaining carbon budget for a 66% chance of avoiding 1.5˚C becomes
21 tonnes CO2 per person: 4 years to 1.5˚C
The remaining carbon budget for a 66% chance of avoiding 2.0˚C becomes…
85 tonnes CO2 per person: 16 years to 2.0˚C
These are for world average per person emissions. The populations of rich countries average much higher emissions.
P.S. I must admit some confusion between CO2 and CO2e in the calculations.
Geoff,
First, per the first & seconded attached plots (based on Jan-March, and Jan-April, respectively) and issued recently by Gavin Schmidt there is a real chance that we could exceed 1.5C by the end of 2016.
Second, the USGS report that you cited not only understates the possible implications of wildfires, it clearly understates the implications of methane emissions from Alaskan lakes as indicated by the following extract from:
Edited by Zhiliang Zhu and A. David McGuire, "Baseline and Projected Future Carbon Storage and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes in Ecosystems of Alaska", USGS Professional Paper 1826, ISSN 1044-9612 (print), ISSN 2330-7102 (online)
http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1826/pp1826.pdf (http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1826/pp1826.pdf)
Extract of the last paragraph in the main body of the report: "The results of our synthesis have implications for carbon management strategies that might be implemented as part of national policies aimed at controlling the rate and overall magnitude of climate change. These results suggest that Alaska could be a sink for greenhouse gases under some climate scenarios, but under others it could be a source, depending on the response of CH4 emissions of lakes. However, it is important to recognize that CH4 emissions from lakes have not been considered in this assessment, and it is likely that Alaska would be a source of greenhouse gases under all climate simulations if these emissions were considered in the assessment. Models have recently been developed for simulating CH4 emissions of arctic lakes (Tan and others, 2015), and these models may be useful for estimating regional CH4 emissions of lakes in Alaska in future assessments to more fully inform policy decisions concerning the mitigation of greenhouse-gas emissions in the United States."
Best,
ASLR
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21 large fires currently burning in the U.S. Most are in the southwest, which is just beginning what looks to be a 10+ day major heatwave.
Map and info:
http://wxshift.com/climate-change/climate-indicators/us-wildfires (http://wxshift.com/climate-change/climate-indicators/us-wildfires)
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The Santa Barbara County fire doubled in size overnight:
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-sherpa-fire-20160617-snap-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-sherpa-fire-20160617-snap-story.html)
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The Sherpa fire in Santa Barbara County has increased from 4,000 yesterday to 6,000 acres (and is still increasing in size):
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-sherpa-fire-20160617-snap-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-sherpa-fire-20160617-snap-story.html)
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Russia significantly under-reporting wildfires, figures show
Greenpeace analysis of satellite data reveals 3.5m hectares have burned this year, while government statistics claim only 669,000 hectares
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/16/russia-significantly-under-reporting-wildfires-figures-show (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/16/russia-significantly-under-reporting-wildfires-figures-show)
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Map and info at the link.
CAL FIRE PIO Berlant : Latest on the #SherpaFire west of Goleta (Santa Barbara County) - 7,063 acres, 24% contained & over 1,200 personnel.
https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/744182746793140224
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The wildfires in the US Southwest are being fed by record heat:
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/crews-fighting-southwest-wildfires-prepare-excessive-heat-n595201 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/crews-fighting-southwest-wildfires-prepare-excessive-heat-n595201)
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The linked Climate Central article is entitled: "Climate Change is Tipping Scales Toward More Wildfires"
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/western-wildfires-climate-change-20475 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/western-wildfires-climate-change-20475)
Extract: "Climate change is producing conditions ripe for wildfires, tipping the scales in favor of the dramatic increases in large wildfires we have seen across the West since the 1970s. Snowpack is melting earlier as winter and spring temperatures rise, and in most states an increasing percentage of winter precipitation is falling as rain, meaning there is often less snowpack to begin with. Summer temperatures are rising, particularly in Southwestern states, where the number of extremely hot days is steadily increasing, creating more days where forests and grasslands are dried out and ready to burn."
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California:
ERSKINE FIRE IN KERN COUNTY SCORCHES 19,034 ACRES
A fast-moving wildfire has exploded to 19,034 acres after destroying 100 structures and forcing hundreds of evacuations in rural communities near Lake Isabella in Kern County.
So far, there is no containment estimate. Approximately 80 of the 100 structures are homes, officials said.
The blaze, dubbed the Erskine Fire, exploded in size quickly after breaking out in the area around 4 p.m. Thursday. By evening, it had burned through 5,000 acres due to low humidity conditions and high heat. Early Friday morning, it was around 8,000 acres before more than doubling in size by 10 a.m.
http://abc7.com/news/erskine-fire-in-kern-county-explodes-to-19034-acres/1399705/ (http://abc7.com/news/erskine-fire-in-kern-county-explodes-to-19034-acres/1399705/)
That's quite a detour:
CalTrans: US 395 closed near Lee Vining due to wildfire
http://foxreno.com/news/local/caltrans-us-395-closed-near-lee-vining-due-to-wildfire (http://foxreno.com/news/local/caltrans-us-395-closed-near-lee-vining-due-to-wildfire)
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Erskine Fire has burned through the communities of Squirrel Valley and South Lake, California, near Lake Isabella.
Included video shows "some of the conditions the firefighters were dealing with as the Erskine Fire at Lake Isabella burned homes."
California: scores of homes burn in Erskine Fire
http://wildfiretoday.com/2016/06/23/california-scores-of-homes-burn-in-erskine-fire/ (http://wildfiretoday.com/2016/06/23/california-scores-of-homes-burn-in-erskine-fire/)
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The linked article discusses the topic: "'Catastrophic' California Wildfires Could Erupt in ‘Unprecedented’ 66 Million Dead Trees":
https://weather.com/safety/wildfires/news/unprecedented-millions-dead-trees-california-could-fuel-catastrophic-wildfires
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http://ktla.com/2016/06/25/erskine-fire-1500-structures-threatened-by-46-square-mile-wildfire-in-kern-county-containment-at-5/ (http://ktla.com/2016/06/25/erskine-fire-1500-structures-threatened-by-46-square-mile-wildfire-in-kern-county-containment-at-5/)
Erskine Fire: 150 Structures Destroyed, 1,500 More Threatened by 55-Square-Mile Wildfire in Kern County
'growing potential on south and east sides' from InciWeb (http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/4806/).
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150 homes destroyed, 75 damaged. Short video:
CAL FIRE Battalion Chief Mike Mohler at scene in Kern County with the latest on the over 35,000 acre #ErskineFire
https://twitter.com/cal_fire/status/746833773438730240
#ErskineFire in Kern County is now 36,810 acres & 10% contained. 1,712 personnel assigned. Photo by @EPN564
https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/746924355339247617
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AbruptSLR
Just noticed your post of Jun4th.
Thanks.
It makes this Brexit fuss seem trivial, especially after those images Sigmentnow has just posted.
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Dan Lindsey: Ridiculous amounts of smoke being generated by fires in eastern #Russia - #Himawari movie: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=loop_of_the_day/20160628000000&number_of_images_to_display=100&loop_speed_ms=100 (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=loop_of_the_day/20160628000000&number_of_images_to_display=100&loop_speed_ms=100)
https://twitter.com/danlindsey77/status/747799591764922369 (https://twitter.com/danlindsey77/status/747799591764922369)
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With ENSO conditions currently being neutral (meaning no La Nina rains for the Amazon in the near future), the linked article indicates that the El Nino dried Amazon is primed for wildfires in the coming months:
http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2016/0630/This-El-Nino-season-could-spark-intense-wildfires-in-Amazon (http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2016/0630/This-El-Nino-season-could-spark-intense-wildfires-in-Amazon)
Extract: "Following the recent El Niño event, conditions in the Amazon are drier than the start of any dry season since 2002."
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The linked Scribbler article indicates that large portions of Siberia are currently experiencing wildfires and record high temperatures:
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/07/01/wildfires-in-the-land-of-frozen-ground-1000-mile-long-pall-of-smoke-covers-burning-siberia/
Extract: "Wildfires in the Land of Frozen Ground — 1,000 Mile Long Pall of Smoke Blankets Burning Siberia"
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It seems that the California wildfire season is continuing:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-wildfires-idUSKCN0ZI0YY (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-wildfires-idUSKCN0ZI0YY)
Extract: "A new wildfire burning through bone-dry grass, shrub and timber has forced the evacuation of dozens of homes in a mountain community in central California and more houses could be in the inferno's path, fire officials said on Saturday."
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The linked article is entitled: "As peatlands dry out from climate change, wildfire risk increases", and it highlights the increasing risk (with continued global warming) of boreal peatland wildfires from Canada, to Siberia to Alaska:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/drying-peatland-wildfire-risk-1.3655059?cmp=rss (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/drying-peatland-wildfire-risk-1.3655059?cmp=rss)
Extract: "Peatlands are one of the staples of the boreal forest that sweeps across Canada. The 185 billion tonnes of mossy wetlands across the country can act as firebreaks, literally dampening the flames as they move across the landscape.
But when dried, the peatlands are a tinderbox — and a new study says the latter is becoming more and more common as the climate warms."
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Singapore to pursue firms over forest fires, despite Indonesian ire (http://www.todayonline.com/world/asia/singapore-pursue-firms-over-forest-fires-despite-indonesian-ire)
JAKARTA — Singapore is refusing to back down in its pursuit of those responsible for haze-belching forest fires in Southeast Asia last year, despite struggling to bring the perpetrators before the courts and drawing a sharp rebuke from neighbouring Indonesia.
Forest fires are part of an annual dry-season problem in Indonesia, started illegally to quickly and cheaply clear land for cultivation — particularly for palm oil and pulpwood.
But last year’s haze outbreak was among the worst in memory, shrouding Malaysia, Singapore, and parts of Thailand in acrid smoke and forcing school closures as pollution reached hazardous levels and thousands fell sick across the region.
Singapore has served notice to six Indonesian companies it believes may have cleared land by burning but could target others as investigations continue, according to Singapore’s ambassador to Indonesia Anil Kumar Nayar.
...
What the "almighty dollar" (or rupiah) drives people to.
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Some north Canada headlines from CBC News (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/alberta-forest-fire-prompts-fort-smith-n-w-t-residents-to-prepare-for-evacuation-1.3662234)
Alberta forest fire prompts Fort Smith, N.W.T., residents to prepare for evacuation
Lightning starts 7 new fires in N.W.T. over the weekend
1st N.W.T. wildfire of 2016 breaks out 25 km northeast of Yellowknife
Burn ban in effect in Yellowknife, fire danger high in southern N.W.T.
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Eric Holthaus:
Most forested areas of California will have above normal risk for wildfire during July.
http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf (http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf)
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/750750879242809344 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/750750879242809344)
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El Nino has increased Amazon basin drought. The fire season will be extreme. There are already more fires than 2015.
See: http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/2016/07/el-nino-creates-amazon-drought-and.html (http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/2016/07/el-nino-creates-amazon-drought-and.html)
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CAL FIRE: Even with cooler temperatures last week, there were over 360 new wildfires. 3,112 since Jan 1 burning 120,444 acres.
https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/752600465032900608
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Calif. facing most volatile fire season in over 100 years, fire chief says
"Even though some of the fuels appear to be green there is five years of dead growth underneath those fuels and there is a potential for a catastrophic fire," he said.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/california-facing-most-volatile-fire-season-in-over-100-years-fire-chief/ (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/california-facing-most-volatile-fire-season-in-over-100-years-fire-chief/)
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California's Costly Wildfire Season Might Never End
L.A.-based photographer Stuart Palley has been chasing deadly wildfires for years now, watching the fire season get longer and longer as global warming creates a hotter, drier environment. Here, he gives us an up-close-and-personal look at the wildfires that might soon rage year-round.
"The Joshua tree is an endangered species; they evolved to survive fires, but these fires burn so hot it's beyond what they're adapted for. They're being decimated. It takes a long time for them to grow, and these fires are happening so quickly that they're not growing back."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/photo-essays/2016-07-20/california-s-costly-wildfire-season-might-never-end (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/photo-essays/2016-07-20/california-s-costly-wildfire-season-might-never-end)
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Widespread Russian Wildfire Smoke Stretches Nearly 2,000 Miles
Wildfires burning in central and eastern Russia this week have contributed to an eye-popping amount of smoke that is trapped under a dome of high pressure.
You can see the smoke – the milky white area – extending for nearly 2,000 miles from west to east across Russia in the NASA satellite image above from Wednesday. Each red dot on the map is a fire and thermal anomaly detected by satellite, illustrating where some of the active fires were occurring at that time.
https://weather.com/news/weather/news/russia-wildfire-smoke-widespread-july-2016
Images:
Smoke across Russia on satellite July 18, 2016. Each red dot shows fire/thermal anomalies detected by satellite.(NASA)
Weather pattern in Asia July 20, 2016 with high pressure centered over central Russia leading to stagnant conditions.
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Extreme fire conditions near Los Angeles this weekend. Multiple fires being fought.
Sand Fire:
Santa Clarita Brush Fire Scorches 20,000 Acres; 10 Percent Contained
http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2016/07/22/growing-20-acre-brush-fire-reported-in-santa-clarita/ (http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2016/07/22/growing-20-acre-brush-fire-reported-in-santa-clarita/)
Shelters Open To Help Animals Caught Up In Sand Fire
It was a massive team effort as volunteers lined up with trailers to evacuate more than 400 animals from the Wildlife Waystation.
“We’re moving them to multiple locations right now, but it’s a tall order,” Jerry Brown from Wildlife Waystation said.
There are horses, billy goats, and exotic animals like lions, tigers, and even bears.
“It’s painstakingly slow, because although anyone can drive, only a few vets and trainers can handle tigers, which need to be caged and sedated before being moved to nearby warehouses,” Brown said.
http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2016/07/23/shelters-open-to-help-animals-caught-up-in-sand-fire/ (http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2016/07/23/shelters-open-to-help-animals-caught-up-in-sand-fire/)
Soberanes Fire:
CAL FIRE: Evacuation Warning issued for the Carmel Highlands area due to the 6,500 acre #SoberanesFire in Monterey County.
https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/757023689363763201 (https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/757023689363763201)
CAL FIRE: Latest facts on the #SoberanesFire south of Carmel (Monterey County) - 6,500 acres, 5% contained & 780 personnel.
https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/757046133222801408 (https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/757046133222801408)
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“We are in July,” he said. “We’ve never had four major fires within six weeks in June and July.”
California: Out-of-control wildfire grows to more than 33,000 acres in Santa Clarita Valley
“Five years ago, if we had a similar fire, we would have probably caught [it] at the ridge,” Los Angeles County Fire Department Chief Daryl L. Osby said at the news conference.
...
“We’ve never seen a fire come into Sand Canyon like that,” Tripp said. “All the experience we’ve had with fires is out the window.”
...
The Sand fire, which is named for Sand Canyon, is the latest blaze to ravage L.A. County this year.
Earlier this season, Tripp said, blazes in Calabasas, Duarte and Stevenson Ranch, which would have likely claimed 20 to 50 acres in a normal year, have spread exponentially, burning thousands of acres. Tripp said he can’t help but worry about what the remainder of the season will bring.
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-santa-clarita-fire-day-three-20160724-snap-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-santa-clarita-fire-day-three-20160724-snap-story.html)
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The Sand Fire in Santa Clarita Offers Omens of a Fiery Future
Wildfires are a normal part of life in Southern California. But what’s burning right now is not a normal fire.
As of midday Sunday, the Sand Fire had grown to 22,000 acres (34 square miles) — roughly the same size as the island of Manhattan — and was just 10 percent contained. In nearby Los Angeles, the fire prompted frequent references to the Apocalypse this weekend, as the large smoke plume dropped ash and blotted out the sun.
The fire, which started as a small brush fire along the side of Highway 14 near Santa Clarita, California, on Friday, quickly spread out of control under weather conditions that were nearly ideal for explosive growth. The fire doubled in size overnight on Friday, and then doubled again during the day on Saturday.
https://psmag.com/the-sand-fire-in-santa-clarita-offers-omens-of-a-fiery-future-e142811ed90e
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Soberanes fire from my house two nights ago:
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Sand Fire Burn Scar
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=88445 (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=88445)
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Soberanes fire from my house two nights ago:
Yikes! Packed and ready just in case? Best.
My inlaws were in similar proximity to the Valley Fire that wiped out Middletown last year. Scary how explosive these things are under our current dry/hot/windy conditions.
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Fort McMurray flooding a 'bad dream' after wildfire
'It's just not our year,' city councillor says after flooding damages homes that escaped wildfire
People in Fort McMurray are taking stock of water damage after torrential rain flooded parts of the city over the weekend, including some areas that escaped devastation from the wildfire that forced tens of thousands out of the northern Alberta community in May.
Rising water prompted the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo to reopen its emergency operations centre for the first time since the wildfire, which has come to be known as the Beast.
City crews in drainage trucks pumped water out of those neighbourhoods on the weekend, even as it trickled into basements and forced road closures.
"It's a bad dream," said city Coun. Keith McGrath. "I think I'm in a bit of a denial state. How can this happen? How can so much happen within the span of three months?"
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fort-mcmurray-flooding-1.3702881 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fort-mcmurray-flooding-1.3702881)
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Soberanes fire from my house two nights ago:
Yikes! Packed and ready just in case? Best.
My inlaws were in similar proximity to the Valley Fire that wiped out Middletown last year. Scary how explosive these things are under our current dry/hot/windy conditions.
Fortunately (for us) it's not moving North and is unlikely to reach us. Residents south and east are having to move out. It's going to burn out a huge portion of the Santa Lucia highlands (where Big Sur is).
http://cdfdata.fire.ca.gov/incidents/incidents_details_info?incident_id=1348 (http://cdfdata.fire.ca.gov/incidents/incidents_details_info?incident_id=1348)
unfortunately they haven't been updating the fire maps, except the one in the local Starbucks or I'd like the extent.
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The California National Guard is joining the effort to fight Central California wildfires.
https://twitter.com/thecaguard/status/760652003630419968
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Portugal Wildfires: Hospital, Hundreds of Homes Evacuated in Madeira
The worst-hit areas were in northern Portugal, where temperatures have exceeded 86 Fahrenheit since Saturday. The region's pine and eucalyptus forests are tinder-dry after a long spell without significant rain.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/portugal-wildfires-hospital-hundreds-homes-evacuated-madeira-n626176 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/portugal-wildfires-hospital-hundreds-homes-evacuated-madeira-n626176)
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10,000 people being evacuated in Vitrolles, France, after forest fire burns about 1,800 acres - La Provence
http://www.laprovence.com/article/faits-divers-justice/4069485/feux-importants-dans-les-bouches-du-rhone-a-istres-fos-et-vitrolles-ou-des-quartiers-sont-e (http://www.laprovence.com/article/faits-divers-justice/4069485/feux-importants-dans-les-bouches-du-rhone-a-istres-fos-et-vitrolles-ou-des-quartiers-sont-e)
https://twitter.com/breakingnews/status/763440310185758721 (https://twitter.com/breakingnews/status/763440310185758721)
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And now, an article in English: ;)
Thousands Evacuated as Several Fires Blaze Across Southern France
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/thousands-evacuated-several-fires-blaze-across-southern-france-n627611 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/thousands-evacuated-several-fires-blaze-across-southern-france-n627611)
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California wildfire forces 1,000 evacuations and destroys homes
Flames racing through dry brush destroyed four homes and forced more than 1,000 people to flee a northern California lake community that was evacuated in a devastating wildfire last year.
Authorities ordered about 1,200 residents to leave 500 homes as the blaze surged south of the town of Lower Lake. The wildfire spread to more than two square miles by early Sunday, and crews faced hot weather and little cloud cover as they tried to get a handle on the flames burning largely out of control.
...
Another blaze that broke out Saturday afternoon forced the evacuation of 135 homes south of Lake Nacimiento in central California, the San Luis Obispo County sheriff’s office said. It burned more than two square miles, but no homes have been lost and it is partially contained.
In the south, residents were readying for a heat wave. Temperatures were expected to reach triple digits in valley areas north of Los Angeles, stoking an increased risk of wildfires in inland regions through at least Wednesday, the National Weather Service said.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/aug/14/california-wildfire-evacuations-homes-destroyed (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/aug/14/california-wildfire-evacuations-homes-destroyed)
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CALFIRE PIO: Latest damage estimates on the #ClaytonFire in Lake County: 175 structures destroyed. Damage assessment continues.
https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/765213876770050048 (https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/765213876770050048)
Clayton Fire burns structures near Lower Lake, California
The fire is burning near the scars from three very large fires from 2015
http://wildfiretoday.com/2016/08/14/clayton-fire-burns-structures-near-lower-lake-california/ (http://wildfiretoday.com/2016/08/14/clayton-fire-burns-structures-near-lower-lake-california/)
180-degree wind shift pushed Clayton Fire into Lower Lake
http://wildfiretoday.com/2016/08/15/180-degree-wind-shift-pushed-clayton-fire-into-lower-lake/ (http://wildfiretoday.com/2016/08/15/180-degree-wind-shift-pushed-clayton-fire-into-lower-lake/)
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Blue Cut Fire Burns 30,000 Acres, Forces 82,000 to Evacuate in California
A wildfire continued raging through rural communities in California Wednesday, triggering a state of emergency and evacuation orders for more than 82,000 residents in the San Bernardino area.
More than 700 firefighters and other emergency workers were battling the Blue Cut fire, which flared early Tuesday some 60 miles east of Los Angeles and spread rapidly along the Cajon Pass. By Wednesday morning, it had burned 30,000 acres, with firefighters unable to contain any of it, officials said.
Gov. Jerry Brown declared a state of emergency in San Bernardino County, families fled and Interstate 15 was closed as the blaze grew.
...
The fire was zero percent contained and covered 28 square miles at 11 p.m. PT (2 a.m. ET) — only 12 hours after it began — according to CalFire.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/blue-cut-fire-burns-18-000-acres-forces-82-000-n632486 (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/blue-cut-fire-burns-18-000-acres-forces-82-000-n632486)
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Blue Cut Fire Burns 30,000 Acres, Forces 82,000 to Evacuate in California
A wildfire continued raging through rural communities in California Wednesday, triggering a state of emergency and evacuation orders for more than 82,000 residents in the San Bernardino area.
More than 700 firefighters and other emergency workers were battling the Blue Cut fire, which flared early Tuesday some 60 miles east of Los Angeles and spread rapidly along the Cajon Pass. By Wednesday morning, it had burned 30,000 acres, with firefighters unable to contain any of it, officials said.
Gov. Jerry Brown declared a state of emergency in San Bernardino County, families fled and Interstate 15 was closed as the blaze grew.
...
The fire was zero percent contained and covered 28 square miles at 11 p.m. PT (2 a.m. ET) — only 12 hours after it began — according to CalFire.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/blue-cut-fire-burns-18-000-acres-forces-82-000-n632486 (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/blue-cut-fire-burns-18-000-acres-forces-82-000-n632486)
This thing literally just blew up. Unreal fire conditions. Best to all impacted by it.
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Eric Holthaus on the incredible fire weather around the Blue Cut fire. The linked article has many embedded links, including a short video showing "a rapid advance of flames in a matter of seconds."
The National Weather Service in San Diego, which has forecasting responsibility for the area around the fire, described the stunningly extreme weather that helped lead to the fire's quick growth:
DRAMATIC ATMOSPHERIC CHANGES OCCURRED OVER THE HIGH DESERTS AND THE
SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN A SURGE OF DRY AIR SENT
DEW POINTS PLUMMETING BELOW ZERO. AT 2 PM TODAY THE DEW POINT AT
DAGGETT WAS -11F, THE TEMPERATURE WAS 107, AND THE RH WAS 1%.
HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE MINIMAL TONIGHT. AT 8 PM THE RH AT DAGGETT
WAS STILL ONLY 4%.
The weather will remain nearly ideal for fire growth on Wednesday and Thursday. Interstate 15 is closed, so people traveling between L.A. and Las Vegas have to take a 5-hour detour through the desert.
http://tinyletter.com/sciencebyericholthaus/letters/today-in-weather-climate-blue-cut-fire-edition-wednesday-august-17th (http://tinyletter.com/sciencebyericholthaus/letters/today-in-weather-climate-blue-cut-fire-edition-wednesday-august-17th)
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it looks like it is a VERY bad fire
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-37113697 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-37113697)
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“Our forests and wild lands are under attack from climate change,” Governor Inslee said.
Washington state Gov. Jay Inslee has declared a state of emergency for 20 Eastern Washington counties in response to multiple wildfires that threaten homes and natural resources.
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/northwest/inslee-declares-emergency-in-20-counties-due-to-wildfires/ (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/northwest/inslee-declares-emergency-in-20-counties-due-to-wildfires/)
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CAL FIRE PIO: Last week there were 215 new wildfires in California. Over 5,350 wildfires since Jan 1 burning nearly 500,000 acres.
https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/773279496971485184
(Brief wildfire video at link.)
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Russian fires are getting pretty big (again). These have been growing since the start of the month. Did a quick news scan and did not see anything.
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Russian fires are getting pretty big (again). These have been growing since the start of the month. Did a quick news scan and did not see anything.
I think it's just amazing this isn't more visible in the media
[Edit: Another view of it]
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Wow, you're not kidding. Here's what they look like on http://earth.nullschool.net/ (http://earth.nullschool.net/) in the CO2sc and COsc views under Chem. They simply dwarf the emissions coming from Japan.
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Unbelievable levels of smoke showing over Western Siberia on this morning's MODIS. Swipe to the left to see more.
Signs of significant action too in Indonesia. When will they learn?
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All the foliage from the arctic down to Siberia visibly gets browner over the last month. Here is the link to the active fire data (google earth kml) for the region.
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/active_fire/c6/kml/MODIS_C6_Russia_and_Asia_24h.kml (https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/active_fire/c6/kml/MODIS_C6_Russia_and_Asia_24h.kml)
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California's Soberanes Fire becomes costliest to fight in US history
The center estimates the cost of fighting the blaze at $197.8 million. According to Iveth Hernandez, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Forest Service, the long duration of the fire plays a big role in the cost of the fire.
The previous record for the costliest wildfire to fight was the Biscuit Fire of 2002 at about $165 million. It started as five separate fires ignited by lightning and burned nearly 500,000 acres in Northern California and Southern Oregon, according to a Government Accountability Office report on the response to the blaze.
According to California Interagency Incident Management Team 1, the daily costs of fighting the Soberanes Fire have fallen from a peak of $8 million to $2 million. Hernandez said part of the reason for the drop in daily cost is because the fire is burning in remote areas of Los Padres National Forest and the number of personnel fighting the blaze is down from a peak of 5,636 last month to 1,392.
http://www.montereyherald.com/article/NF/20160915/NEWS/160919808 (http://www.montereyherald.com/article/NF/20160915/NEWS/160919808)
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Blazes in Southeast Asia May Have Led to Deaths of Over 100,000, Study Says
The forest fire and haze disaster in Southeast Asia last year may have led to the deaths of more than 100,000 people, according to a study released Monday by researchers from two United States universities. A vast majority of the cases were in Indonesia, where fires were deliberately set to clear land for agriculture.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/20/world/asia/indonesia-haze-smog-health.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/20/world/asia/indonesia-haze-smog-health.html)
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'The school is closed, locals are afraid to go out - the visibility is about 100-150 metres. Two flights are already cancelled - the runway is not visible.'
Oil pipes threatened by forest fires amid disputes over the scale of destruction
Greenpeace claims up to 300 times more territory in Siberia is ablaze than officially acknowledged.
20 September: Officials on Tuesday acknowledged a 20% rise in forest fires in the past 24 hours but campaigning group Greenpeace alleged that state agencies are hugely underestimating the scope of the problem.
http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0740-oil-pipes-threatened-by-forest-fires-amid-disputes-over-the-scale-of-destruction/ (http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0740-oil-pipes-threatened-by-forest-fires-amid-disputes-over-the-scale-of-destruction/)
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Brazil's raging forest fires threaten indigenous land, uncontacted tribes
Brazil's uncontacted tribes, some of the last on earth, depend on large areas of unspoiled forest land to hunt animals and gather the food they need to survive
RIO DE JANEIRO, Sept 21 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Forest fires raging in northeast Brazil are forcing indigenous people out of their traditional territories and threatening uncontacted tribes, an indigenous leader said on Wednesday.
Fire season in the Amazon and surrounding savannah normally lasts from July to November, but burning has become more intense due to climate change and illegal logging, said Sonia Guajajara, National Coordinator of the Association of Indigenous Peoples.
Uncontacted members of the Awa tribe live in areas affected by fires, and some have been forced out of the jungle, Guajajara told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.
http://news.trust.org/item/20160921171434-zkn2i/ (http://news.trust.org/item/20160921171434-zkn2i/)
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The linked Scribbler article is entitled: " We are Suffocating from Smoke” — For Russia, Climate Change is Already Producing Fires that are Too Big to Fight"
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/09/28/for-one-month-we-are-suffocating-from-smoke-for-russia-climate-change-is-already-producing-fires-that-are-too-big-to-fight/
Extract: "Over the past decade or so, a rapid warming of Siberia has resulted in a dramatic increase in fire incidence. The vast boreal forests were thrust into hotter, dryer conditions by a human-forced warming of the globe. Meanwhile, permafrost thaw added its own massive and growing volumes of peat-like fuel for burning. As the years progressed, very large fires have erupted with rising frequency. Mostly underreported, according to Greenpeace and independent satellite analysis by experts, these fires have covered millions of acres year after year after year:
“If you look at the whole area over the past 30 years, there’s a significant increase in burned area that is very clear by the early 2000s,” Susan Conrad, a former U.S. Forest Service scientist who has spent decades researching the impact of fire on Siberia, told ClimateWire.""
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Drought has led to wildfires in Tennessee and North Carolina, U.S.A.
Burning ban ordered as wildfires toast North Carolina mountains
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/local/article113130343.html (http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/local/article113130343.html)
Drought behind increase in fires in East Tennessee
http://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/local/2016/10/31/several-fires-burning-cherokee-national-forest/93063326/ (http://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/local/2016/10/31/several-fires-burning-cherokee-national-forest/93063326/)
PLUMES OF SMOKE ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...EAST TENNESSEE... AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA... AREA FIRES ARE PRODUCING PLUMES OF SMOKE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING LOCALIZED VISIBILITIES TO ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AND PRODUCING VERY UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS. AREA RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WILL WANT TO REMAIN INDOORS TO AVOID EXCESSIVE EXPOSURE TO THE SMOKE. THOSE SUFFERING FROM BREATHING AILMENTS WILL ESPECIALLY WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT WINDOWS ARE CLOSED AND AIR INTAKE SYSTEMS ARE SHUT DOWN. AN AIR QUALITY ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=gsp&wwa=special%20weather%20statement (http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=gsp&wwa=special%20weather%20statement)
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Evacuations now in five North Carolina mountain counties as wildfires top 10,000 acres
ASHEVILLE, N.C. (WNCN) – Evacuations are now taking place in five North Carolina mountain counties as nearly 20 wildfires totaling more than 10,000 acres continue to spread.
http://wncn.com/2016/11/09/evacuations-now-in-4-nc-mountain-counties-as-wildfires-top-10000-acres/ (http://wncn.com/2016/11/09/evacuations-now-in-4-nc-mountain-counties-as-wildfires-top-10000-acres/)
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Understanding fire scars on trees: How does a tree damaged by a wildfire heal the wound?
http://wildfiretoday.com/2016/11/08/understanding-fire-scars-on-trees/ (http://wildfiretoday.com/2016/11/08/understanding-fire-scars-on-trees/)
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Wildfire just southeast of Asheville, North Carolina.
https://twitter.com/joyoverturf/status/797272364287401984 (https://twitter.com/joyoverturf/status/797272364287401984)
NC mountain wildfires exceed 23,000 acres as 6th county orders evacuations
The fires are producing so much smoke that the drifting smoke prompted air quality authorities to declare a Code Orange on Friday in Charlotte.
In North Carolina’s Nantahala National Forest, more than 20 wildfires have burned more than 17,000 acres and all of them are “being investigated for suspected arson,” federal forestry officials have said.
http://wncn.com/2016/11/12/nc-mountain-wildfires-exceed-23000-acres-as-6th-county-orders-evacuations/ (http://wncn.com/2016/11/12/nc-mountain-wildfires-exceed-23000-acres-as-6th-county-orders-evacuations/)
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I have to say that image is a pretty well done hoax by the chinese. They've even put an american name and the ©-sign on it to fool the librul media. Same goes for other 'wildfires' reported in the south so no goverment aid is my recommendation.
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between the Chinese falsifying our satellite images of melting sea ice and photo-shopping fires in the USA .. are they the new Global warming scare-mongers ?
Why pmt .. just why ??? as in wtf ??
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between the Chinese falsifying our satellite images of melting sea ice and photo-shopping fires in the USA .. are they the new Global warming scare-mongers ?
Why pmt .. just why ??? as in wtf ??
Figured the site lacks the other side of the story so provided some clues as to what it might look like.
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;D
On more serious note I have to wonder when it will hit one million acres burned... Week-out forecasts don't show much if any rain over the most affected areas, and particularly across Georgia.
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The linked Scribbler article is entitled: '“Surreal” U.S. Wildfires Should Not be Burning in Mid-November'.
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/11/17/surreal-u-s-wildfires-should-not-be-burning-in-mid-november/
Extract: "In Dallas, on November 16, the thermometer hit 88 degrees Fahrenheit, breaking a 95 year old record. In Ada, Oklahoma the mercury struck 85 degrees F. Further north in high-elevation Denver, temperatures soared to 78 F — punching through a 75 year old record.
Meanwhile, strange, out-of-season wildfires continued to burn from the U.S. South to North Dakota and New England. In Atlanta, smoke streaming out of nearby wildfires blanketed the city. Red-eyed residents were increasingly forced to don protective masks beneath the choking late-fall pallor. In Chattanooga, over 200 residents were hospitalized from smoke inhalation and shortness of breath
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We're not supposed to get any real rain till Wednesday, and it is already bone dry here in Atlanta.
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Israel Vows to Punish 'Terrorism' Over Wildfire Raging Near Haifa
Upward of 60,000 were forced to evacuate their homes in Haifa and around 95 people have been treated for smoke inhalation after the fires tore across the country's north, center and parts of the occupied West Bank over the past three days.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-vows-punish-terrorism-over-wildfire-raging-near-haifa-n688256 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-vows-punish-terrorism-over-wildfire-raging-near-haifa-n688256)
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Israel Vows to Punish 'Terrorism' Over Wildfire Raging Near Haifa
Regardless of the causes (probably mixed negligence and terrorism), the fires have been raging in multiple locations around Israel helped by very abnormal weather. A strong wind has been coming from the east, bringing with it extremely dry desert air. In Haifa yesterday humidity was 11% and wind speed was 52 km/h. Normally the rainy season should have started about a month ago, but this year there was almost no rain, and temps were anomalously warm. Many people realize this is not just random weather, but definitely affected by AGW.
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Wildfires tear across drought-stricken parts of Peru
Less rain due to climate change and last year's El Nino weather pattern have made the Amazon drier than usual, scientists have said
LIMA, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Wildfires have torn through more than 22,000 hectares (54,363 acres) of forest, protected areas and farmland in drought-stricken parts of Peru as the Andean country suffers one of its driest periods in years, authorities said on Thursday.
The spate of wildfires in the past week were likely started by accident after peasant farmers burned fields to prepare them for planting, said Edgar Ortega with Peru's Civil Defense Institute.
Strong winds fanned the flames that quickly crossed the Andean regions of Cajamarca and Lambayeque in northern Peru, which are experiencing prolonged droughts, Ortega said.
http://news.trust.org/item/20161125021941-23b4r/ (http://news.trust.org/item/20161125021941-23b4r/)
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U.S.: Ash is falling in downtown Gatlinburg, Tennessee, from multiple wildfires in the nearby forests. High wind warnings are in place for much of the southeast, which is currently in severe drought conditions.
"Mandatory evacuations are underway for Gatlinburg and portions of Pigeon Forge. If you are in these areas, please follow instructions from local fire and police officials."
https://www.facebook.com/NWSMorristown/posts/1295920243772678:0 (https://www.facebook.com/NWSMorristown/posts/1295920243772678:0)
Fires force evacuations in Gatlinburg, TN; Smokies park closes roads
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/28/us/southern-fires-gatlinburg-smokies/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/28/us/southern-fires-gatlinburg-smokies/index.html)
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More on the Gatlinburg fire:
‘Worst possible conditions’: Thousands flee as flames engulf Tennessee resort towns
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/11/29/worst-possible-conditions-residents-flee-gaitlinburg-tenn-as-flames-lick-roads/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/11/29/worst-possible-conditions-residents-flee-gaitlinburg-tenn-as-flames-lick-roads/)
Edit: More: 150 Homes and businesses in Gatlinburg destroyed. Burn victims hospitalized.
http://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/2016/11/29/3-gatlinburg-burn-victims-critical-condition-vumc/94599712/ (http://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/2016/11/29/3-gatlinburg-burn-victims-critical-condition-vumc/94599712/)
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Eric Holthaus: Exceptional (D4) drought in SE US (48,733 sq mi) now larger than drought in California (33,274 sq mi).
Gatlinburg, TN fires directly linked.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/803729038313287680 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/803729038313287680)
What a Warmer Future Means for Southeastern Wildfires
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/warmer-future-southeastern-wildfires-20912 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/warmer-future-southeastern-wildfires-20912)
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Giant Gatlinburg-Sized Wildfires May Be the New Normal
Since the 1980s, wildfires in the United States have exponentially increased in frequency and duration. According to a 2006 study published in Science journal, wildfire season has increased by nearly two months, with fires occurring nearly four times more often on a land area scale six times large, and lasting nearly five times as long.
http://observer.com/2016/12/giant-gatlinburg-sized-wildfires-may-be-the-new-normal/ (http://observer.com/2016/12/giant-gatlinburg-sized-wildfires-may-be-the-new-normal/)
11 Deaths Confirmed as Smokies Wildfires Devastate Tennessee
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/seven-deaths-confirmed-great-smokies-wildfires-spread-tennessee-n690311 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/seven-deaths-confirmed-great-smokies-wildfires-spread-tennessee-n690311)
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What a Warmer Future Means for Southeastern Wildfires
And this drought was an interesting one. It really only started THIS SUMMER....it hasn't been going on for years. It had only been going on FOR MONTHS.
What happens if we do get a longer drought again like we (I live in Atlanta) had several years ago where it was a drought that lasted for 2 or 3 years?
It's STILL mind boggling that we could have intense wildfires AT THE END OF NOVEMBER. Crazy. The "new normal" that we are continuing to face.
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Perspective: If Gatlinburg fires happened in California, they'd rank as the fourth most-damaging (1,700 structures) & fifth deadliest (14).
https://twitter.com/stevebowenwx/status/805785933580816384
(California fire data at the link.)
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Chalet Village Fire Gatlinburg Amazing "Escape From Hell" Full Length Video by Michael Luciano
https://youtu.be/cI2sgyoiL1o
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Electrical Line in Tree Blamed in Deadly California Wildfire in late June
FRESNO, Calif. — An electrical line in a tree sparked a devastating summer wildfire in central California that killed an elderly couple and destroyed hundreds of homes, investigators said Thursday.
Insulation from the electrical line rubbed the tree and wore down over time, dropping hot, molten material into the dry grass below that sparked the fire, officials said.
The fire raced up a Lake Isabella hillside prone to burning, said Kern County Fire Chief Brian Marshall. But this year, firefighters couldn't stop the flames, which eventually scorched 75 square miles and turning 280 homes into tangled rubble. ...
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/electrical-line-tree-blamed-deadly-california-wildfire-n699406 (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/electrical-line-tree-blamed-deadly-california-wildfire-n699406)
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My old laptop crashed last month and with it all the bookmarks I had which included nation and worldwide wildfire reports/maps.
Can anyone recommend a few sights for me? Google searches have proven disappointing.
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My old laptop crashed last month and with it all the bookmarks I had which included nation and worldwide wildfire reports/maps.
Can anyone recommend a few sights for me? Google searches have proven disappointing.
Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center Sitrep: http://www.ciffc.ca/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=25&Itemid=212 (http://www.ciffc.ca/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=25&Itemid=212)
Canadian Fire Smoke Forecast: http://firesmoke.ca/ (http://firesmoke.ca/)
American NIFC National Interagency Coordination Center Sitrep is linked from here: https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/ (https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/)
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My old laptop crashed last month and with it all the bookmarks I had which included nation and worldwide wildfire reports/maps.
Can anyone recommend a few sights for me? Google searches have proven disappointing.
next to a backup at all times i recommend to at least import your bookmarks into google chrome from time to time ( backupwise or for use ) because they remain stored and simply sync on any machine and/or phone that is using your google account they were synced on.
i know it's OT but perhaps it helps you keep your data/bookmarks safe.
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U.S.:
http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/ (http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/)
http://wxshift.com/climate-change/climate-indicators/us-wildfires (http://wxshift.com/climate-change/climate-indicators/us-wildfires)
http://wildfiretoday.com (http://wildfiretoday.com)
Australia:
https://sentinel.ga.gov.au/#/ (https://sentinel.ga.gov.au/#/)
http://www.firenorth.org.au/nafi3/ (http://www.firenorth.org.au/nafi3/)
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Australia:
ABC Emergency: #VIC #Emergency #Bushfire Warning for #Tangambalanga #RedBluff #Kiewa. Fire is out of control. Take shelter indoors
https://twitter.com/abcemergency/status/815386941411586048
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"Dante's Inferno" in Chile: All-Time National Heat Record Smashed by 6°F
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3548 (https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3548)
Extract:
Record heat and extreme drought in Chile are contributing to their worst wildfires in decades. On Thursday, the entire town of Santa Olga was destroyed by fire, with more than 1,000 building consumed including schools, nurseries, shops and a post office.
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Massive pyrocumulus cloud above a large wildfire in NSW, Australia.
Sir Ivan fire from Dunedoo #NSWRFS
https://twitter.com/robrfs/status/830699700764319745
See the Weird Weather thread for information on the current extreme heatwave in southeast Australia.
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Australia heatwave: Unprecedented fire conditions are 'as bad as it gets'
NSW is facing the "worst possible fire conditions" in its history with a "catastrophic" warning in place across large slabs of the state after a heatwave smashed temperature records on Saturday.
Rural Fire Service (RFS) Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons said the situation was as "bad as it gets" and warned it was set to get worse on Sunday when winds are expected to sweep through scorched parts of mid to northern NSW.
...
Commissioner Fitzsimmons said conditions in some parts of NSW could be worse than Victoria's Black Saturday fires, Australia's worst ever fire disaster which claimed 173 lives in 2009....
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/nsw-heatwave-unprecedented-fire-conditions-are-as-bad-as-it-gets-20170211-guarjl.html (http://www.smh.com.au/environment/nsw-heatwave-unprecedented-fire-conditions-are-as-bad-as-it-gets-20170211-guarjl.html)
(And to think the BOM added more colors to the high end of the temperature chart only a couple years ago....)
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They will soon need more colors....
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UPDATE: Major Forest Fire Consumes More Than 100 Acres In Ocean County, New Jersey, USA.
http://patch.com/new-jersey/manchester-nj/brush-fire-closes-route-539 (http://patch.com/new-jersey/manchester-nj/brush-fire-closes-route-539)
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"Latest wildfire estimates: At least 1.48 million acres burned this week in Texas (479k), Oklahoma (342k), & Kansas (659k) w/ fires ongoing."
https://twitter.com/severeplains/status/839507087176663040
"Impressive. Gusty winds behind this front are what's fanning massive wildfires in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Colorado."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/839563181102026752
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Stretch of Alligator Alley closed due to brush fires (http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/florida/sfl-alligator-alley-brush-fires-20170308-story.html)
This is in southern Florida, USA.
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Not a good start...
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"Very warm and dry conditions have been in place since last week, says Bob Henson of wunderground.com. Boulder topped out at 81 degrees (27°C) on Saturday, making it the second earliest 80-degrees reading on record."
Wildfire Near Boulder, Colorado, Prompts Evacuation of More Than 1,000 Homes
https://weather.com/news/news/colorado-boulder-sunshine-fire-evacuations
Edit: wind, temperature, humidity, fire danger maps at the llink.
NWS: Strong winds, low humidities, and unusually warm temperatures are producing critical fire weather conditions in the South/Central Plains.
https://twitter.com/nws/status/843503190448521216
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"U.S. sees furious start to the wildfire season http://buff.ly/2n9mXU4 (http://buff.ly/2n9mXU4) via @USATODAY"
https://twitter.com/climatenexus/status/844215804317122560 (https://twitter.com/climatenexus/status/844215804317122560)
Wildfires have charred a whopping 2 million acres across the U.S. so far this year, an area larger than the state of Delaware.
It's a gigantic number for so early in the season, roughly 10 times the average and also the most acres burned as of mid-March since 2006, according to spokeswoman Jessica Gardetto of the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho.
Many of the blazes have been massive grass fires in Oklahoma and Kansas, which have both set records for number of acres burned in March, Gardetto said....
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Destructive and Deadly U.S. Wildfires Have Burned More Than Four Times the Average So Far in 2017
Wildfires have charred more than four times the average acreage to date in what has been a destructive and deadly start to 2017 in the United States.
Almost 2.2 million acres had been burned by 14,529 wildfires as of April 7, the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) reports. The area of land burned so far in 2017 dwarfs the 10-year average (2007-2016) of 434,696 acres for this point in the year, but the actual number of fires is close to the average of 13,731.
...
https://weather.com/news/weather/news/wildfires-united-states-2017-four-times-average
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Southeast U.S.: West Mims Fire burning in the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge near the Florida-Georgia border has now burned nearly 144,000 acres (58,275 hectares).
Dry pattern to offer no wildfire relief as West Mims Fire evacuations expand
As crews continue to battle the massive West Mims Fire, mainly dry weather will worsen the wildfire and drought situation across the Southeast into late May.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from southern Georgia through the Florida Peninsula has left the region a tinderbox since the beginning of the year.
The largest active fire in the region is the West Mims Fire burning in the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge near the Florida-Georgia border.
The blaze, which is only 12 percent contained, has grown exponentially to over 140,000 acres since being sparked by a lightning strike on April 6, according to InciWeb.
Mandatory evacuations were expanded on Tuesday to encompass the entire southern half of Charlton County, Georgia. ...
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/dry-pattern-to-offer-no-wildfire-relief-across-southeastern-us/70001631 (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/dry-pattern-to-offer-no-wildfire-relief-across-southeastern-us/70001631)
Fire crews can finally take offensive on West Mims Fire
http://jacksonville.com/news/georgia/2017-05-10/fire-crews-can-finally-take-offensive-west-mims-fire (http://jacksonville.com/news/georgia/2017-05-10/fire-crews-can-finally-take-offensive-west-mims-fire)
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The entire Russian district of Siberia is under an official state of emergency. It is only mid-may.
https://watchers.news/2017/04/29/massive-wildfire-engulfs-bubnovka-siberia-declares-state-of-emergency/
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The entire Russian district of Siberia is under an official state of emergency. It is only mid-may.
https://watchers.news/2017/04/29/massive-wildfire-engulfs-bubnovka-siberia-declares-state-of-emergency/
I don't want to say it with certainty, but I suspect this is being exacerbated by compounding year over year losses of permafrost. Winter doesn't help the situation either, with snowfall anomalies wayyyyyy above normal insulating the ground from cooling off, while every subsequent summer allows more heat to accumulate.
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Recent Florida wildfire status:
Florida On Fire: 125 Blazes, ‘Worst Wildfire Season in Years’
...
According to the Florida Forest Service, there were 125 active wildfires burning across the state on lands under its jurisdiction as of 7:30 a.m. [May 8]. The fires affected an estimated 31,154 acres. Twenty-seven of those fires, including Pasco’s Anclote Branch blaze, were deemed major, spanning 100 acres or more. State officials also reported there were four fires burning on federal lands in Florida. Those blazes span some 153,746 acres....
https://patch.com/florida/southtampa/florida-fire-125-blazes-worst-wildfire-season
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The linked article indicates that fire could transform the Amazon forests this century
Le Page, Y., Morton, D., Corinne, H., Ben, B.-L., Cardoso Pereira, J. M., Hurtt, G., and Asrar, G.: Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-55, (https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-55,) in review, 2017.
http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2017-55/ (http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2017-55/)
Abstract. Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, common under current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.
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Huge forest fires in Portugal kill more than 60 people
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/18/portugal-more-than-20-people-killed-in-forest-fires (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/18/portugal-more-than-20-people-killed-in-forest-fires)
At least 62 people have been killed in huge forest fires in central Portugal, many dying in their cars as they tried to flee the flames.
Portugal’s prime minister, António Costa, described the blazes – which have injured dozens more people – as “the greatest tragedy we have seen in recent years in terms of forest fires”, and warned the death toll could rise. Three days of national mouring were declared.
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32 000 hectares ablaze in Siberia, near Irkutsk, and another 10 000 hectares at Baikal see.
http://tayga.info/134863 (http://tayga.info/134863)
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Inspecting the remaining sea ice off the Mackenzie Delta this morning, I couldn't help but notice lots of smoke:
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Martians can see this smoke (Siberia) with a toy telescope.
From June 23 (still going today)
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Utah’s #BrianHeadFire has grown to the largest in the nation....
https://twitter.com/sean_breslin/status/879726619375661060
Utah's Brian Head Fire Now Largest Active Wildfire in U.S.; 13 Homes Burned
(Aticle also covers some other current western U.S. wildfires.)
https://weather.com/news/news/brian-head-fire-utah-latest-news
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The linked article is entitled: "These NASA Images Show Siberia Burning Up"; and with continued global warming, these wildfires are expected to continue to increase in frequency & extent:
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/nasa-siberia-wildfires-21576 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/nasa-siberia-wildfires-21576)
Extract: "Siberian wildfire season is off and running with multiple blazes searing the boreal forest and tundra. It’s the latest example of the vast shifts happening to the forests that cover Siberia and the rest of the northern tier of the world as climate change alters the landscape.
Those forests are burning at a rate unheard of in at least 10,000 years due largely to rising temperatures. They contain vast reserves of carbon stored in trees and soil and when they burn, they send that carbon into the atmosphere. That creates a dangerous cycle of more severe wildfires and ever rising temperatures."
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The vast area of Siberian fires appear to be marching NW, then NE.
Now within 1000 k of the Arctic Ocean.
(Siberian Sea is at the bottom)
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Breckenridge, Colorado, U.S.:
Rapidly expanding wildfire near Breckenridge threatens townwide evacuation
The fire jumped from 50 square feet to more than 20 acres in a matter of a few hours
Everyone in Breckenridge should be prepared to evacuate, official said late Wednesday afternoon.
...The fire is burning in an old growth forest of heavy timber including ponderosa pine.
http://www.denverpost.com/2017/07/05/wildfire-breckenridge-july-2017/ (http://www.denverpost.com/2017/07/05/wildfire-breckenridge-july-2017/)
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From Weird Weather
Nearly 2,000 firefighters battling out-of-control wildfires in B.C.
Province in state of emergency as more than 7,000 people are forced from their homes
"A state of emergency remains in effect for all of B.C., giving the government special authority to respond to the fires. Such a state hasn't been declared province-wide since the summer of 2003, when 2,500 fires broke out."
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-wildfires-1.4196204 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-wildfires-1.4196204)
Not looking to good up in Yukon / NW Terr either (Worldview 8 Jul)
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Oroville, California. (Yes, the site of flooding, back in February.)
Even from a distance, this looks scary as hell.
"Amazing footage of #WallFire generating rotating #pyrocumulus convection column &extreme fire behavior.#CAwx #CAfire "
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mup5-RfADik
https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/884087525043654656
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I wonder for how long those particles will remain in the atmosphere? That looks like a lot of force.
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More sad news on the wildfire front:
"Echoes of Fort McMurray — Massive Wildfire Forces the Emptying of Another Canadian City"
https://robertscribbler.com/2017/07/16/echoes-of-fort-mcmurray-massive-canadian-wildfire-forces-the-emptying-of-another-canadian-city/
Extract: :"A little more than a year after a massive wildfire forced the full evacuation of Fort McMurray in Alberta, another set of extreme wildfires in British Columbia is again forcing major population centers to empty. In the region of Williams Lake and Cariboo City, 17,400 people have been forced to flee as a wildfire is threatening the major highway exiting the area. As the fire expands, another 27,000 in the broader province may also be asked to leave. This mass evacuation has been enough to empty large urban centers — turning them into ghost towns as fires rage through the surrounding countryside."
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The linked reference, indicates that an increase in weather induced lighting strikes has driven major North American boreal forest fires:
Sander Veraverbeke, et. al. (2017), "Lightning as a major driver of recent large fire years in North American boreal forests", Nature Climate Change, 7, 529–534doi:10.1038/nclimate3329
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v7/n7/full/nclimate3329.html (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v7/n7/full/nclimate3329.html)
Abstract: "Changes in climate and fire regimes are transforming the boreal forest, the world’s largest biome. Boreal North America recently experienced two years with large burned area: 2014 in the Northwest Territories and 2015 in Alaska. Here we use climate, lightning, fire and vegetation data sets to assess the mechanisms contributing to large fire years. We find that lightning ignitions have increased since 1975, and that the 2014 and 2015 events coincided with a record number of lightning ignitions and exceptionally high levels of burning near the northern treeline. Lightning ignition explained more than 55% of the interannual variability in burned area, and was correlated with temperature and precipitation, which are projected to increase by mid-century. The analysis shows that lightning drives interannual and long-term ignition and burned area dynamics in boreal North America, and implies future ignition increases may increase carbon loss while accelerating the northward expansion of boreal forest."
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Eric Holthaus: Right now there are 20 large fires burning in California. Wildfires have burned 249% more acres than normal so far in California in 2017.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/887365869948612608
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More than 45,000 people displaced by B.C. wildfires
Evacuations prompted by wildfires in central B.C. are approaching record levels for the province, officials said Tuesday.
The total number of people displaced by the fires is now estimated at 45,806, according to Robert Turner, deputy minister for Emergency Management B.C.
"This number has changed fairly significantly in the past 48 hours and that has to do primarily with getting better information from local governments," Turner said.
"It's becoming one of the largest displacement events in the history of the province."
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-wildfires-tuesday-1.4210370 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-wildfires-tuesday-1.4210370)
Before and after satellite images of some affected areas:
http://globalnews.ca/news/3603427/b-c-wildfires-before-and-after-satellite-images-show-trail-of-destruction/ (http://globalnews.ca/news/3603427/b-c-wildfires-before-and-after-satellite-images-show-trail-of-destruction/)
Map of active wildfires in British Columbia:
http://governmentofbc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a1e7b1ecb1514974a9ca00bdbfffa3b1 (http://governmentofbc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a1e7b1ecb1514974a9ca00bdbfffa3b1)
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How Weeks of Downpours Sparked Wildfires in California
- Precipitation from the drought-busting winter has fueled fires
- Grass that greened valleys, hillsides, now is fuel to burn
Some 2,905 fires started between Jan. 1 and July 9, burning more than 68,129 acres on state and local lands, more than double the five-year average of 27,390 acres and the 30,574 that burned by the same date last year. When you throw in areas maintained by the U.S. Forest Service, the total acreage aflame or scorched across the state rises to 92,439 acres. Governor Jerry Brown declared an emergency in Santa Barbara County where two fires have forced people from their homes, threatened agriculture and could even sever major power lines and drive up electricity prices.
Transmission lines are ubiquitous in California, seemingly rising and falling over almost every hill. When one of those lines is cut, the supply is separated from its demand -- like last Thursday, when 1,000 megawatts of electricity coming in from Oregon were cut off from customers in California by a fire burning near the state line, said David Quinn, a power-market analyst specializing in California at Genscape Inc. in Boston. Or sometimes, Quinn said, power will be traveling from the southern part of the state to customers in the north when a fire interrupts the line. That’ll cause electricity prices at the destination to surge while the south finds itself awash in excess electricity.
Summer fires in California aren’t anything new, of course. Around this time of year the West in general tends to start burning, said Robyn Heffernan, a National Weather Service fire weather science meteorologist in Boise, Idaho.
What is new is that the numbers and intensity of fires seem to be rising, a consequence of climate change, Head said.
“They are much longer-burning, much hotter and much faster-spreading,” she said. “There are parts of California that don’t go out of fire season.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-18/rain-sparks-wildfire-outbreak-in-odd-weather-twist-in-california (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-18/rain-sparks-wildfire-outbreak-in-odd-weather-twist-in-california)
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The article title says it all: "Mariposa County fire doubles in size as flames force thousands to flee and threaten power to Yosemite":
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-detwiler-fire-mariposa-yosemite-20170719-htmlstory.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-detwiler-fire-mariposa-yosemite-20170719-htmlstory.html)
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British Columbia smoke in the valleys
https://go.nasa.gov/2uKBwm4
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BC looks bad indeed.
Highlighted the carbon monoxide here in Yosemite, with 3 major hotspots in North America at the moment.
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July 20
States of Emergency in California and British Columbia from Raging Wildfires
One of the largest evacuations in British Columbia history is underway, thanks to 155 wildfires—including fifteen major wildfires that threaten populated areas—that have forced more than 45,000 people from their homes. According to CBC News, the number of evacuations is approaching the province’s record set in 2003, when 50,000 people were forced out of their homes by a wildfire near Kelowna. The Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre reported on July 19 that the nation was operating at the highest level of wildfire response, Level 5, and that international assistance would likely be needed, since “national resource levels are insufficient to meet occurring and anticipated wildland fire activity.” A state of emergency was declared for the province on July 7, and has been extended through the end of July....
Detwiler Fire threatens California’s historic town of Mariposa
A state of emergency was declared on Wednesday in Mariposa County, including parts of Yosemite National Park, as the Detwiler Fire doubled in size in just one day to encompass roughly 46,000 acres on Wednesday. The fire had expanded to 70,000 acres by Thursday morning, with just 10% containment, and 45 structures had already been lost, according to CalFire. The Merced Sun-Star reported that more than 3100 firefighters were being coordinated from an incident command post at the Merced County Fairgrounds. In the crosshairs of the spreading fire on Thursday was Mariposa, a Gold Rush-era town of about 2000 residents and 4000 structures. The town was almost completely evacuated on Wednesday....
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/states-emergency-california-british-columbia-raging-wildfires (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/states-emergency-california-british-columbia-raging-wildfires)
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Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur region; St-Tropez.
France wildfires force mass evacuation
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40725294 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40725294)
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And now Greenland is burning, though it has happened before.
More pics here: https://twitter.com/Pierre_Markuse/status/894461039609352192
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Greenland burning: see posts in Greenland 2017 melt... thread starting here (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2054.msg123633.html#msg123633).
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Here's some historical data showing pixels with >30% confidence
From https://twitter.com/StefLhermitte/status/894618860032331776 (https://twitter.com/StefLhermitte/status/894618860032331776)
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Siberia is ablaze again today. I believe Putin is down there somewhere.
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Here is an update on the wildfires continuing to burn in Greenland:
Title: "There’s a Wildfire Burning in West Greenland Right Now"
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/wildfire-burning-greenland-21686 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/wildfire-burning-greenland-21686)
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Ranching in this age of wildfires.
The Day the Fire Came
A tale of love and loss on the Texas Panhandle plains.
http://features.texasmonthly.com/editorial/the-day-the-fire-came/ (http://features.texasmonthly.com/editorial/the-day-the-fire-came/)
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Not that we don't deserve it, but were sucking in wildfire smoke here in Western Canada that's making the air worse than Beijing. The Wetcoast has received less than a mm of rain since June 18. Unbelievable. (but not really)
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.... The Wetcoast has received less than a mm of rain since June 18....
A typo to cheer me up! ::)
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.... The Wetcoast has received less than a mm of rain since June 18....
A typo to cheer me up! ::)
That might not be a typo.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Left_coast#Definitions
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Surely not a typo from a poster from Vancouver.
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My, my, I learn something new every other day! ('Wet coast' today)
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Haha sorry guys, its a common tongue in cheek way to refer to our area, but I realize posters from around the world obviously wouldn't be versed in our colloquialisms. Glad I cheered somebody up, because its brutal over here! The smoke is giving everybody headaches. Apparently we might get some rain this weekend, but overall this summer is just part of a trend of droughts in a traditionally very wet area.
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cross post:
The biggest fire continues to spread. Image from Sentinel Playground August 8 (http://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel-playground/?lat=67.85690144960271&lng=-51.55319021665491&zoom=12&preset=CUSTOM&layers=B02,B08,B12&maxcc=100&gain=0.4&gamma=1.0&time=2015-01-01|2017-08-08&cloudCorrection=none&atmFilter=&showDates=false). I'm showing the color bands choices. (8/8/17 image is latest.) Note scale in lower left corner. (click if you like)
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Rip - Ah, I understand - and fully approve of the phrase. From someone in the North West UK, I can fully sympathise with a wet climate, and I willing to bet the 'droughts' we get here are nothing to what you're going through. I hope you get some relief soon.
It's still making me chuckle just for the dichotomy.
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A good summary of the Greenland fire
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/earthmatters/2017/08/10/roundtable-the-greenland-wildfire/
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BC fire situation is exceptionally bad. As of the 11th, they're up to 143 active fires (11 starts the previous day) with a season total of 646,000 ha (1.59M acres) burned in the province.
This includes the monster Elephant Hill fire, which is up to 125k ha (300k acres) in size.
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More wildfires in Oregon:
http://www.ktvz.com/news/lightning-sparks-several-new-wildfires-across-region/603262283 (http://www.ktvz.com/news/lightning-sparks-several-new-wildfires-across-region/603262283)
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I was so stunned with all the smoke I saw and smelt in Winnipeg last year during the Womens Fifa Soccer, much from Alberta. Slightly amazed at the smoke I notice via the moon in northern Iowa this year from further afield.
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A New Zealand helicopter pilot fighting enormous wildfires in Canada says everyone works in an ''apocalyptic twilight'' amid the worst conditions he has experienced in 25 years.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/336767/canada-wildfires-apocalyptic-kiwi-pilot (http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/336767/canada-wildfires-apocalyptic-kiwi-pilot)
"In my experience and that of the pilots here, we've never seen anything like this.
''This fire will be going until the first snow, so once the weather conditions physically change into fall or winter, that's when the fire will technically be over.
''There's just so much of it, what we're doing right now is just trying to contain it."
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Greece, Portugal and Corsica are also experiencing untamed wildfires:
Title: "Wildfires rage on untamed in Greece, Portugal and Corsica"
http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/French-summer-wildfires-ravage-over-2-000-11815849.php (http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/French-summer-wildfires-ravage-over-2-000-11815849.php)
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An extreme wildfire event has taken place in Northwest Territories, Canada with 1.19 million acres being burned in approx. one day. Robertscribbler has a good article up on it right now.
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Yesterday's Worldvie (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2017-08-15&z=3&v=-5499651.33112105,-3220843.0187364667,255228.66887895064,690836.9812635332)w image shows northwestern Canadian smoke. Some of it clearly (sic!) going to the Arctic. I expect today's image will be worse.
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Wow. I had read the headlines, but hadn't seen the images yet. Impressive.
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We have very smoky ground-level air here in Minneapolis, apparently from Saskatchewan fires, which are 10 times more widespread this year than normal...if there is a 'normal' any more...
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http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/336767/canada-wildfires-apocalyptic-kiwi-pilot (http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/336767/canada-wildfires-apocalyptic-kiwi-pilot)
Canada wildfires 'apocalyptic'
A New Zealand helicopter pilot fighting enormous wildfires in Canada says everyone works in an ''apocalyptic twilight'' amid the worst conditions he has experienced in 25 years.
A couple amazing pictures and lots of good descriptions here.
See also: https://robertscribbler.com/2017/08/15/area-burned-in-severe-northwest-territory-wildfires-doubles-in-just-one-day/ (https://robertscribbler.com/2017/08/15/area-burned-in-severe-northwest-territory-wildfires-doubles-in-just-one-day/)
Area Burned in Severe Northwest Territory Wildfires Doubles in Just One Day
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Today's Worldview (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2017-08-16&z=3&v=-5499651.33112105,-3220843.0187364668,255228.66887895064,690836.9812635332)
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Here's worldview images of the highest concentrations of fires.
The first image uses bands 7-2-1. The scale is 500m/pixel.
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Good grief... with fires like that, what is stopping the entire landscape from going up? Only the turning of the seasons, I suppose.
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Here is a nice NASA articles about the record smoke from Canada entering the Arctic, including nice links for further read.
“If and when the plume drifts over populated areas, it may turn day into night,” added Mike Fromm of the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory. “There’s that much aerosol in the air.”
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=90759&src=nha
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I told you so:
Smoke is not good for your health, neither in the 1990'ies, when the Tobacco Industry paid deniers to hide the truth, nor this summer, when a new NH pattern of wall-to-wall fires are trying to wreack havoc with the health of our Arctic ecosystems.
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The linked article provides a nice summary of what has been happening with Canada's wildfires over the past week and a half:
Title: "Canada's forests are on fire, and the smoke is so thick it's breaking records"
http://mashable.com/2017/08/17/canada-is-on-fire-smoke-record-arctic/?utm_cid=hp-r-1#40cC5rxJkqq7 (http://mashable.com/2017/08/17/canada-is-on-fire-smoke-record-arctic/?utm_cid=hp-r-1#40cC5rxJkqq7)
Extract: "Forests in Canada are ablaze, with 2.2 million acres going up in flames so far this year in British Columbia alone. These fires, and others in the Yukon and Northwest Territories, have been belching smoke into the air, in some cases up to 8 miles high."
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The smoke above the Northwest Passage, but viewed from below:
http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2017/#comment-222890 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2017/#comment-222890)
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U.S.: While the south and mid-section deal with rain, the west is record hot, and dry.
The desert near Burning Man festival is literally burning
RENO, Nev. — Despite the dust, the Burning Man party keeps going in the Black Rock Desert of northern Nevada.
The main route into Burning Man was closed Wednesday night because of a rapidly expanding wildfire but reopened Thursday. Bureau of Land Management officials said that area of Nevada 447, about 70 miles northwest of Reno on the edge of the Pyramid Lake Paiute Reservation, could close again.
High-voltage electric transmission lines already have been damaged in the fire, which ignited during a dry thunderstorm Thursday. The community of Empire, which has the last general store before participants make the drive to Burning Man, could be threatened in the future, according to the BLM.
The BLM spokesman, John Gaffney, said the lightning-caused Tohakum 2 Fire remained at more than 30,000 acres — almost 50 square miles — overnight. Officials have no word yet on when it will be contained. ...
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2017/08/30/wildfire-closes-main-route-between-reno-burning-man/619363001/ (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2017/08/30/wildfire-closes-main-route-between-reno-burning-man/619363001/)
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“It’s not the typical nighttime fire behavior,” Stewart told KNBC-TV. “We’re using every resource we have.”
Los Angeles, California:
Burbank residents ordered to evacuate as 2,000-acre wildfire rages toward homes
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-brush-fire-verdugo-20170901-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-brush-fire-verdugo-20170901-story.html)
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California governor declares wildfire state of emergency
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1BD013 (http://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1BD013)
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Los Angeles, California.
‘Unique’ La Tuna Fire Scorches 5,000 Acres in Verdugo Mountains, Becomes Largest Blaze in L.A. City History
http://ktla.com/2017/09/02/la-tuna-fire-scorches-about-3000-acres-in-verdugo-mountains-evacuations-remain-in-burbank-l-a/amp/ (http://ktla.com/2017/09/02/la-tuna-fire-scorches-about-3000-acres-in-verdugo-mountains-evacuations-remain-in-burbank-l-a/amp/)
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4625W-qXI0o (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4625W-qXI0o)
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La Tuna Canyon wildfire
More Than a Thousand Firefighters Battling Largest Wildfire In Los Angeles History
More than 1,000 firefighters continue to battle a wildfire that Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti called the biggest wildfire in the city's history.
At least 700 homes in Los Angeles, Burbank and Glendale remain under evacuation orders as the so called La Tuna Canyon wildfire threatens structures in the Sunland-Tujunga area of northern Los Angeles. At least three homes have been destroyed and one is damaged, according to the Los Angeles Fire Department.
"This is a slow burning, 'backing' fire (meaning it burns down hill) and we have resources at the base of the hills to defend homes," the Los Angeles Fire Department said Saturday afternoon in a press release. "When the fire encounters a canyon, it can accelerate and burn uphill. Yesterday the wind was erratic and we are watching closely to see what weather develops today." ..
https://weather.com/amp/news/news/los-angeles-wildfire-la-tuna-canyon-california.html
Largest wildfire in Los Angeles history forces hundreds to evacuate
https://mobile.twitter.com/i/moments/904288333613998080
Images and Videos.
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Everywhere we look, the world is overheated.
Wildfires continue to threaten homes and force evacuations in Eastern Washington, Oregon and British Columbia
https://mobile.twitter.com/seattletimes/status/904496866959732736
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Striking image from the La Tuna fire.
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Fort McMurray wildfire finally extinguished after 15 months
http://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-finally-extinguished-after-15-months (http://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-finally-extinguished-after-15-months)
The fire — first spotted on May 1, 2016, before entering Fort McMurray two days later — was declared extinguished on Aug. 2, said Lynn Daina of Alberta Agriculture and Forestry.
At its height, the May 2016 wildfire burned an area of 589,552 hectares, or 5,895 square-kilometres.
Even after the fire was declared under control on July 4, 2016, embers burned throughout the area during the fall. As the days grew colder, it burned underground and remained there throughout winter.
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When will the record heat, wildfire danger end in the western US?
The heat wave that has shattered records and exacerbated wildfires across the western United States will continue into midweek, but relief is on the way for parts of the region.
The latest burst of heat brought the hottest conditions ever recorded in downtown San Francisco as the mercury soared to 106 degrees Fahrenheit on Friday, Sept. 1. The previous record of 103 was set on June 14, 2000.
Dozens more all-time and daily record highs were set from Los Angeles to Portland, Oregon, and Missoula, Montana, over the weekend.
The hot, dry conditions fanned the La Tuna Fire north of Los Angeles, which has charred over 7,000 acres and burned three homes since Friday, according to the Los Angeles Fire Department. This is the city’s largest wildfire in terms of acreage, Reuters reported.
California Gov. Jerry Brown issued a state of emergency declaration for Los Angeles County on Sunday due to the severity of the blaze.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/when-will-the-record-heat-wildfire-danger-end-in-the-western-us/70002636 (https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/when-will-the-record-heat-wildfire-danger-end-in-the-western-us/70002636)
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Incredible #wildfire smoke sweeping coast to coast today. #GOES16 (prelim, non-op) maps dense smoke from #Oregon thru #Montana to #Colorado.
https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/904837092005564416
GIF animation at the link.
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Wildfires are so bad in and around the Willamette Valley near Eugene, Oregon...that the Ducks had to move today's practice about 1 hour to the west of Eugene....to the Oregon coast.
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When we say the West is burning, this is what we mean:
Scores of huge fires ripping through tinder-dry forests, blanketing the US in smoke.
https://twitter.com/alexsteffen/status/905129440094519296
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Not much info on South America but the situation seems equally bad.
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After burning for months, Montana looks like a fiery apocalypse
https://twitter.com/wxshift/status/905454836396806144
there is so much smoke in Seattle, I took this picture without a filter...you can see sun spots
https://mobile.twitter.com/ohmetimothy/status/905455769381781504
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A wildfire is blackening Oregon's verdant Columbia Gorge, cutting a path of
devastation. Here's our full story:
https://t.co/WIP9vvKe2d
https://twitter.com/APWestRegion/status/905555158481895424
Time lapse video at the link.
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A large group of hikers on a popular trail became stranded.
Police Say Teenage Boy Suspected Of Starting Massive Oregon Wildfire
Police say they have identified a 15-year-old boy suspected of setting off fireworks that may have sparked a massive wildfire raging outside Portland, Ore.
"It is believed he and others may have been using fireworks which started the forest fire along the Eagle Creek Trail," Oregon State Police said in a news release.
Authorities say an investigation is still underway into the blaze that started Saturday and has so far consumed more than 30,000 acres of forestland, choking the air and raining down ash on the nearby metropolitan area. ...
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/09/06/548857077/teenage-boy-id-ed-in-oregon-wildfire-that-stranded-more-than-100-hikers (http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/09/06/548857077/teenage-boy-id-ed-in-oregon-wildfire-that-stranded-more-than-100-hikers)
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U.S.: Washington state.
These photos of golfers calmly finishing their games as wildfires rage in the background are totally real
https://twitter.com/weeddude/status/905864572380352512 (https://twitter.com/weeddude/status/905864572380352512)
These Photos Of People Golfing During A Massive Wildfire Are Extremely 2017
Definitely a metaphor.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/ishmaeldaro/wildfire-golfing-photos (https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/ishmaeldaro/wildfire-golfing-photos)
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Nice video on the Women in Wildfire Training Camp offered by @LosPadresNF Application deadline 9/18!
https://mobile.twitter.com/CaFireScience/status/906230818330341376
Video at the link.
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I've been checking the CIFFC site from time to time to see what's up with the Canada wildfires. I just noticed that the burned hectares number has jumped a lot the last month. Also the 2016 numbers are gone (column zeroed out). Maybe just some simple mistake? However, the 2017 area burned seems a bit worrying.
View the "Today's sitrep" here http://www.ciffc.ca/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=25&Itemid=27 (http://www.ciffc.ca/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=25&Itemid=27). Numbers at the bottom of the report.
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You can get the 2016 burned/burning number by date directly. For example 2016 up to Sept 15:
http://www.ciffc.ca/firewire/current.php?lang=en&date=20160915 (http://www.ciffc.ca/firewire/current.php?lang=en&date=20160915)
2016 had less than half of this year's burned area to this point.
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Oooh, nice. I've been wondering how to do that.
Looking back a handful of years it is interesting to note that 2016 was a mild year overall, in spite of the Fort McMurray fire.
2015, 2014 and 2013 all had greater area burned than this year to date.
You can get the 2016 burned/burning number by date directly. For example 2016 up to Sept 15:
http://www.ciffc.ca/firewire/current.php?lang=en&date=20160915 (http://www.ciffc.ca/firewire/current.php?lang=en&date=20160915)
2016 had less than half of this year's burned area to this point.
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US wildfire costs exceed $2 billion, a record amid a year of extremes
http://www.sfchronicle.com/news/article/U-S-fire-costs-push-past-2-billion-a-record-12199292.php (http://www.sfchronicle.com/news/article/U-S-fire-costs-push-past-2-billion-a-record-12199292.php)
The wildfire season that has leveled hundreds of homes, closed roads and parks, and sent hazy smoke into major cities across the West has become the most expensive in U.S. history, officials said Thursday, marking another chapter in a year of brutal extremes linked to climate change.
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@DrWxologist: We are picking up smaller fires much more quickly w/ GOES-16 [satellite]. Can also use fire RGB for intensity info for partners. #NWAS17
https://twitter.com/cjschultz57/status/909849239622098945
One case study in [Kansas/Oklahoma], new GOES-16 satellite detected new wildfire 12 mins before the first 911 call reporting it. Game changer. #NWAS17
https://twitter.com/MorganKIRO7/status/909849577943191552
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The linked article discusses how climate change is making wildfires bigger and more frequent around the world:
Title: "Stark Evidence: A Warmer World Is Sparking More and Bigger Wildfires"
http://e360.yale.edu/features/the-evidence-is-clear-a-warmer-world-means-more-wildfires (http://e360.yale.edu/features/the-evidence-is-clear-a-warmer-world-means-more-wildfires)
Extract: "The increase in forest fires, seen this summer from North America to the Mediterranean to Siberia, is directly linked to climate change, scientists say. And as the world continues to warm, there will be greater risk for fires on nearly every continent.
…
“Evidence is becoming more and more overwhelming,” says Flannigan, that climate change is spreading fires around the world. Globally, the length of the fire weather season increased by nearly 19 percent between 1978 and 2013, thanks to longer seasons of warm, dry weather in one-quarter of the planet’s forests. In the western United States, for example, the wildfire season has grown from five months in the 1970s to seven months today.
The number-crunching now shows an increased risk for fire on nearly every continent, says Flannigan, though most of the work has focused on North America, where there is a larger pot of funding for such research."
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This is as bad as it can get. Massive fires developing overnight, saw a video from 4 AM of hospital patients being evacuated.
http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/2-big-wildfires-prompt-evacuations-in-Napa-County-12262945.php (http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/2-big-wildfires-prompt-evacuations-in-Napa-County-12262945.php)
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The number-crunching now shows an increased risk for fire on nearly every continent, says Flannigan, though most of the work has focused on North America, where there is a larger pot of funding for such research."
The solution is fairly obvious. We need to cut the available funding for such research.
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Northern California has had fire weather warnings out for days. Last night:
Incredible video of patients being evacuated from Kaiser Hospital in #SantaRosa #NapaFire
https://twitter.com/10NewsJason/status/917384517186330626 (https://twitter.com/10NewsJason/status/917384517186330626)
Video at the link.
Wildfires erupt overnight in wine country
http://wildfiretoday.com/2017/10/09/wildfires-erupt-overnight-in-californias-wine-country/ (http://wildfiretoday.com/2017/10/09/wildfires-erupt-overnight-in-californias-wine-country/)
Governor declares emergency as wildfires ravage Sonoma and Napa counties, forcing mass evacuations in wine country
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-napa-fires-20171009-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-napa-fires-20171009-story.html)
>1000 people evacuated as tens of thousands of acres burn in Napa & Sonoma County, Calif.
"It looks like Armageddon"
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/917424978412359682 (https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/917424978412359682)
Images below and at the link.
A ridge top burns behind a vineyard in Napa on Monday morning.
https://twitter.com/MicahGrimes/status/917422723764191232 (https://twitter.com/MicahGrimes/status/917422723764191232)
Last image below: fires visible on MODIS satellite.
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Several destructive wildfires have forced evacuations in Napa County & Sonoma County in California: (link: http://ow.ly/lpKX30fKvKY (http://ow.ly/lpKX30fKvKY))
https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/917427067691700225 (https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/917427067691700225)
Article, video, images at the link. Image below.
Santa Rosa residents wake to widespread damage. #TubbsFire #JourneysEndPark
https://twitter.com/kurtisalexander/status/917411019961462784 (https://twitter.com/kurtisalexander/status/917411019961462784)
Video at the link.
Santa Rosa Police 30 minutes ago: UPDATE: Evacuation map has expanded.
https://twitter.com/Santa_Rosa_PD/status/917426631802630144 (https://twitter.com/Santa_Rosa_PD/status/917426631802630144)
Map below. More info at the link.
Approaching Kaiser in Santa Rosa, this is the smoke we see at Range & Bicentennial. @CBSSF
https://twitter.com/jackie_ward/status/917430851448725505 (https://twitter.com/jackie_ward/status/917430851448725505)
Image below.
9:30 am satellite w/ dense smoke plumes from multiple fires being spread by NE winds still locally gusting to 30 mph.
https://twitter.com/ggweather/status/917432669821997057 (https://twitter.com/ggweather/status/917432669821997057)
Satellite image below.
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Oct 8-9, 2017 Napa & Sonoma County fires: 1,500 structures burned so far, per @latimes
Among the worst in CA history
List: http://www.fire.ca.gov/communications/downloads/fact_sheets/Top20_Destruction.pdf (http://www.fire.ca.gov/communications/downloads/fact_sheets/Top20_Destruction.pdf)
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/917452944223719425 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/917452944223719425)
Follow live: Fires burn across Napa, Santa Rosa and the North Bay
http://www.sfgate.com/local/amp/Follow-live-Fires-Napa-Santa-Rosa-Sonoma-counties-12263680.php (http://www.sfgate.com/local/amp/Follow-live-Fires-Napa-Santa-Rosa-Sonoma-counties-12263680.php)
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Southern California is on fire, too. There's a major, fast-moving fire in the hills outside Anaheim #canyonfire2
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/917457017954078726
Flames already coming over the hill at the intersection of Santa Ana Canyon and Gypsum Canyon. These winds are pushing. @ABC7 #Canyon2
https://twitter.com/abc7greg/status/917447856255934469
Image at the link.
This is the big one for Anaheim Hills headed in to cover
https://twitter.com/stuartpalley/status/917449457280491521
Image below.
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Wildfires now burning homes in Anaheim Hills, SoCal.
This is already one of the worst fire days in California history, and getting worse.
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/917466906793259010
Near total devastation Santa Rosa’s Coffey Park neighborhood where #TubbsFire reduced homes to ashes. [photos]: Melissa Comfort
https://twitter.com/passantino/status/917464496477822976
Images at link.
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A home burns in a fast-burning fire that prompted evacuations in the Anaheim Hills area on Monday. #CanyonFire2
https://twitter.com/KTLA/status/917465471707840512
Video at the clip. Aerial view.
Evacuations continue as #canyonfire2 in Anaheim Hills California grows to 500 acres.
@EPN564 providing live reports
Updates via @OCFA_PIO @AnaheimFire @CBSLA @R5_Fire_News @KNX1070 @CBSLA #CaliforniaWildfires #canyon2fire
https://twitter.com/EdJoyce/status/917479447732699136
Image below.
CanyonFire2
https://twitter.com/EPN564/status/917474505198469120
"Periscope" video of firefighters working a burning ridge near a street.
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Pyrocumulous cloud pops up above the inversion layer that is keeping smoke from California fires trapped near the ground.
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No words. Entire neighborhoods have been razed by the #napafire. Aerial images from @CHP_GoldenGate
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/917496399352270848
Additional image at the link.
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And previous years of drought killed millions of trees, then very wet winter caused strong growth of grasses and brush this spring.
Classic wildland fire pattern in California after 5 months of dry weather plus high pressure over Great Basin creating gusty warm dry winds.
https://twitter.com/ggweather/status/917511125629001728
Second image from The Weather Channel.
Edit: ‘Diablo Winds’ spark historic wildfires in California wine country
https://grist.org/article/diablo-winds-spark-historic-wildfires-in-wine-country/
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Satellite imagery showing extraordinary geographic extent of #NorthBay wildfires; still spreading; out of control. #AtlasFire #TubbsFire
https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/917496942933852160
Updated North SF Bay fire map from NOAA fire mapping products.
https://twitter.com/ggweather/status/917495294211665921
Image below.
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"In flood zones, real estate agents are required to tell you about flood hazard, but we don’t do that with fire hazard"
From 2016:
When spark meets sprawl: Building in wildlands increases fire risk
Wildfires, long considered a problem exclusive to the West, now threaten many other parts of the country as extreme weather becomes more commonplace and more people live in areas at risk for wildfire.
https://www.revealnews.org/article/when-spark-meets-sprawl-building-in-wildlands-increases-fire-risk/amp/ (https://www.revealnews.org/article/when-spark-meets-sprawl-building-in-wildlands-increases-fire-risk/amp/)
WUI map below from The Weather Channel.
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California wildfires still burning; the firestorm has killed at least 10 people and destroyed 1,500 structures across eight counties.
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-wine-country-santa-rosa-napa-fire-20171009-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-wine-country-santa-rosa-napa-fire-20171009-story.html)
Wow. This statement from @NWSBayArea is chilling. Yesterday's North Bay firestorm could displace 1991 Oakland Hills as the worst in memory.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1035 PM PDT Mon Oct 9 2017
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/917740889631592450 (https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/917740889631592450)
Text image below.
#BREAKING #CanyonFire2: At least 24 structures (many homes) destroyed, 6,000 acres burned, 1,000 firefighters, only 5% contained. @NBCLA
https://twitter.com/WhitNBCLA/status/917707005246169088 (https://twitter.com/WhitNBCLA/status/917707005246169088)
Image below; brief video at the link.
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The #canyon2fire as viewed from Mount Wilson about 4am today. #canyonfire2 #orangecountyfire #lafd #ocfire #firefighters
https://twitter.com/socalguitar/status/917730371030065153
Image below.
Latest Napa and Sonoma County large Fires per Cal Fire as of Tuesday morning.
https://twitter.com/ggweather/status/917734592143962112
Image below.
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BREAKING: California fire official: 3,500 homes and businesses have been destroyed in deadly wine country wildfires.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/918157714471211014
Wow. With 3,500 structures burned, the California fires are now officially the most destructive in state history.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/918164571742986240
Image below.
NWS Bay Area: Updated Red Flag Warning and Wind Advisory Information for later today. VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER! #cawx #northbay #napa #sonoma
https://twitter.com/nwsbayarea/status/918049797986226176
Image below.
Dramatic footage shows a @sonomasheriff deputy driving through an advancing wildfire in Northern California cnn.it/2gblpso
https://twitter.com/cnn/status/918091473165475840
Brief video at the link.
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The most destructive in history and a long way from over yet.
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October fires in California:
Notice only 2 Oct. CA fires make the top20 list in terms of size, but many make the list in terms of deadliest. Testament to the fires speed
https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/918422763580379137
Images below
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California just finished its hottest summer in history — these record-breaking fires are no coincidence.
http://grist.org/briefly/californias-out-of-control-wildfires-are-officially-the-worst-in-state-history/amp/ (http://grist.org/briefly/californias-out-of-control-wildfires-are-officially-the-worst-in-state-history/amp/)
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/918222425329876992 (https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/918222425329876992)
Image below.
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Looking for example at this video taken by a drone
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxFHMNtQ3zg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxFHMNtQ3zg)
One thing I wonder is what are all those houses and buildings made of, to be leveled down to the ground in such a way by fire? If the structures were of brick and mortar, there would be some walls remaining. And side issue, what kind of pollutants are released by the burning of such materials (beyond CO2 of course)?
Comments on the video also wonder why/how buildings were leveled flat when neighbouring trees still stand with all their branches and leaves.
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No words. Entire neighborhoods have been razed by the #napafire. Aerial images from @CHP_GoldenGate
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/917496399352270848
Additional image at the link.
I lived in this neighborhood in the early 1990s. I'm still in Sonoma County and these fires have been devastating. We are finally getting the resources from around and out of state to get a hold of them. The intrusion into urban areas has been truly impressive in the worst meaning of the word. Thank you to our emergency responders, my best to those still under evacuation or beginning the process of rebuilding and sympathies to those who have lost life. I know people who have lost everything and friends that are still evacuated but families are safe. I am fortunate that my community is still intact. Sometimes, the delusion that we are in control of nature is totally shattered. Is it time to talk about climate change yet?
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Looking for example at this video taken by a drone
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxFHMNtQ3zg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxFHMNtQ3zg)
One thing I wonder is what are all those houses and buildings made of, to be leveled down to the ground in such a way by fire? If the structures were of brick and mortar, there would be some walls remaining. And side issue, what kind of pollutants are released by the burning of such materials (beyond CO2 of course)?
Comments on the video also wonder why/how buildings were leveled flat when neighbouring trees still stand with all their branches and leaves.
It's not the first fire where I thought: Those wooden (plywood...) houses are a major fire hazard and accelerant. Living trees don't burn that well.
In tightly spaced neighborhoods this can result in unimaginable fire storms. We have seen nothing yet.
Time to change the building codes. Perhaps mandatory sprinklers on every roof except brick houses.
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Mid-Thursday update. Several of the fires have merged. The winds have eased a bit, but are expected to pick back up this weekend.
NWS: On Tuesday, our air quality monitors nearest the fires measured the highest PM 2.5 concentrations on record in the Bay Area since hourly monitoring began in 2009.
At least 24 dead in horrific California wildfires, hundreds missing
Firefighters were still battling 22 wildfires in multiple counties as of Thursday morning. Intensified by strong winds, the flames have charred more than 180,000 acres of land, damaged or destroyed at least 3,500 structures and forced nearly 20,000 residents to evacuate, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. ...
http://abcnews.go.com/US/thousands-flee-wildfires-ravage-california-23-killed/story (http://abcnews.go.com/US/thousands-flee-wildfires-ravage-california-23-killed/story)
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Looking for example at this video taken by a drone
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxFHMNtQ3zg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxFHMNtQ3zg)
One thing I wonder is what are all those houses and buildings made of, to be leveled down to the ground in such a way by fire? If the structures were of brick and mortar, there would be some walls remaining. And side issue, what kind of pollutants are released by the burning of such materials (beyond CO2 of course)?
Comments on the video also wonder why/how buildings were leveled flat when neighbouring trees still stand with all their branches and leaves.
It's not the first fire where I thought: Those wooden (plywood...) houses are a major fire hazard and accelerant. Living trees don't burn that well.
In tightly spaced neighborhoods this can result in unimaginable fire storms. We have seen nothing yet.
Time to change the building codes. Perhaps mandatory sprinklers on every roof except brick houses.
That fire melted guard rails.
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That fire melted guard rails.
Guard rails are made of aluminium, of which fusion point is around 660°C. This is not a surprising temperature for such a fire.
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Worst possible situation for those in the path of these fires at the onset. No advance warning, unusually fast spread, late at night, no awakening by phone alerts which were not received because cell phone towers were disabled by the fire.
Death toll rises to 31, more victims identified in deadly Northern California fires
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-fires-20171013-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-fires-20171013-story.html)
Current fire map images: Napa valley area. Anaheim.
NWS Sacremento: Very dangerous #fire conditions expected overnight tonight due to strong winds and ongoing fires. Please be prepared & aware! #CAwx
https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento/status/918924763036356610 (https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento/status/918924763036356610)
Image below.
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That fire melted guard rails.
Guard rails are made of aluminium, of which fusion point is around 660°C. This is not a surprising temperature for such a fire.
My point is that wood ignites at temperatures between 190-260C. Sprinklers would not prevent houses from burning down unless the entire exterior of a home were doused.
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That fire melted guard rails.
Guard rails are made of aluminium, of which fusion point is around 660°C. This is not a surprising temperature for such a fire.
My point is that wood ignites at temperatures between 190-260C. Sprinklers would not prevent houses from burning down unless the entire exterior of a home were doused.
Yes. Maybe not a workable proposal. But then, if you look at the little water "sprinkled" on burning forests from helicopters and tank planes, this doesn't look effective either. Evaporating water cools things.
-------------------
Watched some more videos:
Almost everywhere there was a gas pipe still burning in the ruins. Why couldn't they shut off the gas when the fire approached? But I guess this wasn't a major factor.
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<snipped>
Watched some more videos:
Almost everywhere there was a gas pipe still burning in the ruins. Why couldn't they shut off the gas when the fire approached? But I guess this wasn't a major factor.
When you are running for your life, stopping to shut off the gas is the last thing on your mind. The fire was literally at many people's doorsteps when they were awakened. Some were trapped inside their homes by the flames.
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-wine-country-santa-rosa-napa-fire-20171009-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-wine-country-santa-rosa-napa-fire-20171009-story.html)
http://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/amp/Sonoma-County-officials-opted-not-to-send-mass-12271773.php (http://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/amp/Sonoma-County-officials-opted-not-to-send-mass-12271773.php)
https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/fight-against-california-wildfires-enters-new-phase-search-bodies-n810281 (https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/fight-against-california-wildfires-enters-new-phase-search-bodies-n810281)
http://www.latimes.com/local/abcarian/la-me-abcarian-sonoma-fire-20171012-htmlstory.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/abcarian/la-me-abcarian-sonoma-fire-20171012-htmlstory.html)
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SONOMA, Calif. (AP) — Fire official says 5,700 homes and buildings destroyed, 90,000 people displaced by Northern California wildfires.
https://twitter.com/JWilliamsAP/status/918972176417431552
Not sure I’ve ever seen air quality this bad in the US
https://twitter.com/passantino/status/918996324254588928
Image below.
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When you are running for your life, stopping to shut off the gas is the last thing on your mind.
Of course. It should be the job of the utility company. Maybe its not as easy as it looks.
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LA. Times puts the death toll at 40.
In California, Fires So Fast Hesitation Proved Lethal
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/13/us/california-wildfires-victims.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/13/us/california-wildfires-victims.html)
California fires: New evacuations ordered for Santa Rosa
The blaze threatening Santa Rosa was a new fire that erupted Friday along state Highway 12 between two other wildfires that have been burning for days.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/14/us/california-fires-updates/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/14/us/california-fires-updates/index.html)
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http://www.pnas.org/content/113/42/11770.abstract (http://www.pnas.org/content/113/42/11770.abstract)
Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests
John T. Abatzoglou and A. Park Williams
PNAS 2016
[...]
We demonstrate that human-caused climate change caused over half of the documented increases in fuel aridity since the 1970s and doubled the cumulative forest fire area since 1984. This analysis suggests that anthropogenic climate change will continue to chronically enhance the potential for western US forest fire activity while fuels are not limiting.
[...]
Short interview with Park Williams:
https://www.democracynow.org/2017/10/11/as_deadly_wildfires_rage_in_california (https://www.democracynow.org/2017/10/11/as_deadly_wildfires_rage_in_california)
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This is an extract from a post on The Trump Presidency by Sigmetnow who found it on facebook
I reproduce it in full as I think it is necessary to give it as wide a circulation as possible.
"We are safe in a hotel for another night. Well, those who know me knew my silence on the politics involved here would not last long. If it bothers you, I understand but it's time to say this. I just watched a man on television describe how his wife died in his arms in Santa Rosa and a mother in tears recounting her son succumbing to the flames in their driveway while trying to escape. People have been burned alive. A women who barely survived the carnage in Las Vegas lost her house. A woman in a wheelchair was waiting to die until a brave sheriff's officer risked his life to save her. Rescuers are finding bodies burnt beyond recognition; other reduced to bones and ash. So far, 36 people have lost their lives, 100,000 people have been evacuated trying their best to find shelter and almost 6,000 structures have been totally destroyed. People are enduring unimaginable circumstances. Also, there is no telling how many pets and wildlife didn't make it. No one can really imagine what this hell is like.
Not that I really care what he says or does, but Trump has not tweeted one word, made a speech, or shown any compassion at all for the victims of the California wildfires. Nothing. Zero. Worthless liberal heathens that we are and not as deserving as the dead red states of Texas and Florida. Are the dead in California less dead? Are their destroyed homes homes not a big deal? Are 100,000 refugees just a statistic? Others do care what the president says and his silence is deafening. If nothing else, the incredibly courageous and selfless firefighters, police, pilots, doctors, nurses and other civil servants deserve thanks and acknowledgment.
Finally, anyone who respects the educated professionals whose lives have been devoted to studying the earth and it's climate, understands that the warming earth and oceans increases the severity of nature's worst tragedies. Like fires, hurricanes and tornadoes as any American could see with their own eyes this year. Warm waters, torrential rains, overgrown brush, excessive heat, severe droughts and hurricane force winds are all a result. This is going to happen again and again as the Trump administration and their GOP and corporate enablers continue to dismantle all efforts aimed at slowing or reversing climate change. This is the new reality."
https://www.facebook.com/johnehrenfeld125/posts/10210572506853761 (https://www.facebook.com/johnehrenfeld125/posts/10210572506853761)
There is nothing more to say really, is there.
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Communication.
This is what Californians really needed during the fires
...
By late Monday morning, hordes of people in packed cars were headed north, many with no certainty where they were going. In Healdsburg, normally a 20-minute drive from Santa Rosa, but then more than an hour in traffic, the lines for gas stations spilled out into the street and many stations ran out of fuel. The delivery trucks couldn't help because the fire had spread across the highway and shut it down. I could tell who the evacuees were, but it didn't take a reporter's eye. It was obvious. Their cars were packed with belongings (if they were "lucky"), and their eyes were red from smoke, being woken up in the middle of the night, and crying. They appeared in the pharmacy, clutching deodorant, toothpaste, slippers — there was never much, because, where do you start when you lose everything? They filled hotel parking lots, meandering, hoping for a room, or rifling through possessions they'd managed to take. I heard, "my house is gone," more times than I can count.
Communication — or lack of it — during the disaster may be the biggest rub. Oddly, in a city so close to Silicon Valley, the birthplace of thousands of apps that make it easier to get everything with a smartphone (weed, lunch, laundry and a million hardly useful things that I won't mention here), there's been no one good way to share reliable information. In part, that was because many people didn't have cell service and Internet was cut off for many customers.
...
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/10/12/opinions/californians-needed-fire-alerts-kerr-opinion/index.html
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Gerontocrat: Trump is just one person. And the entire global political and economic elite are against him. Don't you think it's a little hard to blame him for everything. Why are the globalists not helping Puerto Rico. Are they not the managers of the "one world ideology". And they can't even handle a small island like Puerto Rico. And it's not just the wildfires in California, you had 3 hurricane landfalls, floodings, earthquakes in nearby Mexico. And this morning i was reading a little bit about the pasific typhoon season. In 2015 they had the first typhoon on january 15 , and last one of the year on december 17. That's almost typhoons around the clock. So if your globalists buddies can't even handle it today, they will have very little friends left in the future.
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The linked article uses wildfires in the Amazon as a canary in a coal mine to indicate that the rainforests have turned from carbon sinks to carbon sources:
Title: "Record Amazon fires stun scientists; sign of sick, degraded forests"
https://www.skepticalscience.com/2017-SkS-Weekly-News-Roundup_41.html (https://www.skepticalscience.com/2017-SkS-Weekly-News-Roundup_41.html)
Extract: "- With the fire season still on-going, Brazil has seen 208,278 fires this year, putting 2017 on track to beat 2004’s record 270,295 fires. While drought (likely exacerbated by climate change) worsens the fires, experts say that nearly every blaze this year is human-caused.
- The highest concentration of fires in the Amazon biome in September was in the São Félix do Xingu and Altamira regions. Fires in Pará state in September numbered 24,949, an astonishing six-fold increase compared with 3,944 recorded in the same month last year.
- The Amazon areas seeing the most wildfires have also seen rapid change and development in recent years, with high levels of deforestation, and especially forest degradation, as loggers, cattle ranchers, agribusiness and dam builders move in.
- Scientists warn of a dangerous synergy: forest degradation has turned the Amazon from carbon sink to carbon source; while globally, humanity’s carbon emissions are worsening drought and fires. Brazil’s rapid Amazon development deepens the problem. Researchers warn that mega-fires could be coming, unless trends are reversed.
See also the associated article at:
https://news.mongabay.com/2017/10/record-amazon-fires-stun-scientists-sign-of-sick-degraded-forests/ (https://news.mongabay.com/2017/10/record-amazon-fires-stun-scientists-sign-of-sick-degraded-forests/)
Extract: "While in the past Amazonian forests served humankind inadvertently by absorbing more carbon than emitted, delaying the worst impacts of global warming, Feldpausch says that has now changed. The Amazon has now become part of the problem: “The combined effect of continued droughts, fire, and forest degradation is reducing carbon stocks, resulting in Amazon forests being an estimated net source of carbon during the past decade.”
Indeed, a new, just published study by researchers at the Woods Hole Research Center and Boston University, has found that human-caused deforestation, forest degradation and disturbance of tropical forests in Africa, the Americas and Asia have resulted in those forests now emitting more carbon into the atmosphere than they sequester on an annual basis."
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Gerontocrat: Trump is just one person. And the entire global political and economic elite are against him. Don't you think it's a little hard to blame him for everything.
I believe that he does not care. That is the basic criticism - "frankly, my dear, he does not give a damn" for anything but himself
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I think that's a little bit a stupid critic, because who don't has some self preservation in hisself . Over here these so called socialist politicians even steal from the homeless. But one thing is for sure, he made me smile already many times. Not many politicians ever achieved that. And if you talk about good politics, just look at the news, you think that's the result of good politics.
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California fire response.
Sobering footage by @BerkeleyFD from strike team sent to #TubbsFire in #SantaRosa following main fire front. #CAfire
https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/919620116492386305
Video: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Rdk4d74j3p8&feature=youtu.be
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SKY7 showing the immense amount of smoke coming from the #NunsFire this evening. Poor Air Quality continues in the North Bay.
https://twitter.com/DrewTumaABC7/status/919722590523944960
Image below.
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It's gonna take a miracle...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CoN9PyoU80 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CoN9PyoU80)
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Video: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Rdk4d74j3p8&feature=youtu.be
At 4:12 there is an aerial image of how it was before: High density wooden houses, perfect fuel for a huge conflagration :(
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Climate change blamed as EU's forest fires more than double (http://www.euronews.com/2017/10/16/how-europe-s-wildfires-have-more-than-trebled-in-2017)
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Portugal:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DMNR1gfUMAEKQGp.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DMNdvJKUQAA1Psj.jpg)
From https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU
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When you look at these hellish images and review the trends for forest fires across the planet, how soon can we expect to be subjected to a persistent living hell?
The fires in northern California were essentially unstoppable, overwhelming our widespread yet totally insufficient response. When will the world essentially be on fire and how in the world can we possibly quell them?
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We need better trolls, the kind that can stay on topic.
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Hurricane Ophelia winds feeding wildfires in Spain and Portugal today.
Exceptional view of *THICK smoke* from fires in N Spain and Portugal being advected N into France and the UK! Image: NASA Terra / MODIS
https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/919938832568672257 (https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/919938832568672257)
Image below.
Portugal and Spain wildfires: Dozens dead and injured
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41634125 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41634125)
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More pics from Portugal. I find them weirdly beautiful :(
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DMQgOTgXcAUcdZA.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DMQmz48W0AMgJpH.jpg)
https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU
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MOPITT’s carbon monoxide data (tracer for pollution from #wildfires + more) now avail in near-real-time https://earthdata.nasa.gov/mopitt-data-now-available-in-lance
https://twitter.com/AtmosNews/status/919968118486814720
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@climateguyw The first image produced 103° heat. What will the second (occuring next week) bring? Temps may be 5° above daily record.
https://twitter.com/edgarrmcgregor/status/920079728542752768
Images below.
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Martin
They may be beautiful, but they are as terrifying as anything I've seen.
Terry
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Portuguese interior minister resigns as fires kill more than 100 people (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/19/portugal-interior-minister-resigns-wild-fires-dead)
On Sunday, a series of deadly wildfires broke out in the centre and north of the country which killed 42 people and injured another 71, the civil protection agency said.
Similar huge blazes in June killed 64 people and injured 250 near the central Pedrogao Grande region, in what were the deadliest wildfires in the country’s history.
In all, some 280,000 hectares (690,000 acres) of forest in Portugal’s central Pinhal interior region have been laid waste so far this year in the country’s worst natural disaster in living memory, according to European monitors.
EDIT: Firefighting aircraft despatched from Italy to assist Portugal. (http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_STATEMENT-17-3968_en.htm)
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California:
Updated statewide wildfire map as of this morning
#NorthBayFires #BearFire
https://twitter.com/NWSBayArea/status/921059662358810625
Image below.
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Last year, half of the fire acreage burned in all of Europe lay in Portugal—a country with just 3% of Europe’s land
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/921177904611983360
Europe’s hurricane-fueled wildfires might become a recurring nightmare
With its vast forests and typically warm and dry summers, Portugal is already Europe’s wildfire capital. And in recent decades, its profound and unique socioeconomic vulnerability to fire has only grown. Last year, half of the fire acreage burned in all of Europe lay in Portugal — a trend attributed both to haphazard forestry practices and climate change bringing hotter and drier weather.
This year, the sheer scale of the fires has been staggering. On Sunday alone, wildfires burned at least 300,000 acres — more than is normally burned in an entire year. Smoke from the fires quickly spread as far away as London.
...
“It really is a textbook example of wildfire as a socio-natural hazard,” José Miguel Pereira, a forest ecologist at the University of Lisbon tells Grist via email. Or to put it another way, human activity is making wildfires worse. These infernos are a product of our disregard for the fact that nature is now almost entirely something we’ve created — these disasters aren’t natural. ...
http://grist.org/article/europes-hurricane-fueled-wildfires-might-become-a-recurring-nightmare/
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If anybody would like a view of the structures we've lost from the fires here in the north Bay Area, this is an excellent map.
http://calfireforestry.maps.arcgis.com/apps/PublicInformation/index.html?appid=5bbcbed430ad45e5a38e6be155ef5fec (http://calfireforestry.maps.arcgis.com/apps/PublicInformation/index.html?appid=5bbcbed430ad45e5a38e6be155ef5fec)
Fortunately, we haven't had to endure a "presidential" visit and have paper towels thrown at us.
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Wow.
All 10 of California’s worst fires have now happened since 1991-Oakland Hills.
Tubbs Fire, which partly destroyed Santa Rosa, is now #1
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/921434044914634752
CAL FIRE PIO: As damage assessment of the #CAwildfires continues, 8,400 structures were destroyed, many have made the Top 20 Most Destructive List.
https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/921407668354351105
Image below.
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CAL FIRE PIO: California Statewide Fire Summary (10/22)
10 large fires
6,000 firefighters
8,400 structures destroyed
42 fatalities
http://www.fire.ca.gov/current_incidents
https://twitter.com/CALFIRE_PIO/status/922113606065385477
Image below.
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Why were California's wine country fires so destructive?
https://theconversation.com/amp/why-were-californias-wine-country-fires-so-destructive-86043
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Why were California's wine country fires so destructive?
https://theconversation.com/amp/why-were-californias-wine-country-fires-so-destructive-86043 (https://theconversation.com/amp/why-were-californias-wine-country-fires-so-destructive-86043)
I think Pruitt's New EPA would approve your link for publication. :'(
Terry
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California Statewide Fire Summary (10/30)
5 large fires
1,000 firefighters
8,900 structures destroyed
43 fatalities
http://www.fire.ca.gov/current_incidents
https://twitter.com/calfire_pio/status/925018818165878785
Image below.
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It's December, so that of course means Southern California is facing a major wildfire threat this week.
Hurricane force wind gusts + one of the driest ever starts to the rainy season = Extreme fire threat
NWS Los Angeles: Potential #SantaAnaWind impacts Mon-Thu include extreme fire danger, downed trees/powerlines, blowing dust, and power outages. #LAwind #LAWeather #Socal
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/937455047302148096
"Extremely critical" fire weather alert--the highest possible risk--just issued by NOAA for Santa Monica Mts. area for Monday. Serious stuff.
https://twitter.com/bhensonweather/status/937372718898360321
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Wildfire season is now year-round in California.
"Potential for the strongest and longest duration Santa Ana event so far this season"
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/937460345160990721
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And so it begins. Posted at 7 pm, by 11 pm it is up to 10,000 acres.
http://ktla.com/2017/12/04/fast-moving-brush-fire-in-santa-paula-area-burns-50-acres-amid-red-flag-conditions/
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And so it begins. Posted at 7 pm, by 11 pm it is up to 10,000 acres.
http://ktla.com/2017/12/04/fast-moving-brush-fire-in-santa-paula-area-burns-50-acres-amid-red-flag-conditions/
Latest from the GUARDIAN-
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/05/rapidly-spreading-california-wildfire-thousands-homes
Nearly 8,000 homes have been evacuated in southern California after ferocious winds whipped up an explosive wildfire that could soon threaten a city of more than 100,000.
The blaze broke out on Monday evening east of Santa Paula, which is about 60 miles north-west of Los Angeles. It grew to more than 100 sq km (40 sq miles) by the early hours of Tuesday, consuming vegetation that has not burned in decades, the Ventura county fire sergeant Eric Buschow said.
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http://www.breitbart.com/california/2017/12/05/fire-forces-27000-evacuate-ventura-dry-winter-looms/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social
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As of 8 AM the Thomas fire is at 45,000 acres, no containment, may stop when it reaches the ocean. Good map from the VCFD here
https://twitter.com/VCFD_PIO/status/938060292843487232?s=17
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Thermal satellite imagery loop
https://twitter.com/bill_line/status/938095085396180992
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“Within a few hours, the fire jumped to thousands of acres as Santa Ana winds, blowing as fast as 40 to 60 mph, carried its embers. The fire engulfed dry chaparral and climbed through steep terrain.”
Southern California fire is 'out of control,' forcing thousands to evacuate
By early Tuesday, the fire was burning at a rate of nearly an acre [0.4 hectares] per second. At that speed, it would have covered Manhattan's Central Park in about 15 minutes.
• About 27,000 people were under mandatory evacuation in Ventura County as fire officials warned the powerful winds could push flames further into the city of Ventura.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/05/us/ventura-county-fire-california/index.html
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I got an answer from the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/carbon-budgets-a-straightforward-answer-from-decc/) just before the department was abolished:
That’s correct, the models used vary in what they include, and some feedbacks are absent as the understanding and modelling of these is not yet advanced enough to include. From those you raise, this applies to melting permafrost emissions, forest fires and wetlands decomposition.
(my emphasis)
I've also been following the Global Carbon Project on wildfires and their carbon emissions (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/img/global-carbon-budgets-and-wildfires/). The Global Carbon Project's Global Carbon Budget 2017 (http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/17/files/GCP_CarbonBudget_2017.pdf) has this image:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.brusselsblog.co.uk%2Fimg%2FGCP_wildfiresEnd2016.jpg&hash=95327b41c4fce8d412f0bb1b238dd487)
Does anyone know how bad this season will be?
Have the models (CMIP6?) taken proper account of wildfire increases?
Are wild fires a big deal for the climate or not?
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The southern California wildfire showing up nearly as bright if not as bright as the city lights of Los Angeles.
Nighttime satellite imagery clearly highlights the explosive growth of the #ThomasFire in #SoCal (comparison from the night before). Latest estimates have it at 31,000 acres. #CAFire #cawx
https://mobile.twitter.com/nwssacramento/status/938083463349112833
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So far in 2017, wildfires have scorched some 1,700 square miles [4,400 sq km ] in California, an area larger than the state of Rhode Island.
[Data: http://cdfdata.fire.ca.gov/incidents/incidents_stats?year=2017 ]
https://twitter.com/usatodayweather/status/938120003559321603
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Last night I got a phonecall about a power outage in Santa Barbara. I put the post on the wrong thread
before I realized a fire had caused the outage. Daybreak I could see the smoke 80 miles away and by this afternoon there was smoke and bad air conditions. Freezing temperatures and inverted atmospheric conditions seem to be shoving the smoke to the ground here in the Santa Ynez Valley.
Feels kinda funky to breath .
We have been in a unrelenting drought in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties. Yes we got average rains here last winter but it in no way stopped the tree die off that has taken out millions of live oaks on Southern exposed hillsides. It has to contribute to the ferocity of these fires , dead dry oaks burning differently from live ones. The live oaks will often survive fast burning fires and produce new leaf come spring. I expect the heat of burning all that dead wood will result in extra live oak mortality on the Southern exposed hillsides.
We expect fires during Santa Ana conditions. Living in the canyons , in oak habitat , comes with risks.
I live in the flatlands by the river on agriculture land. It never , well never in the seventeen years I've lived here, blows Santa Ana here where I live. It does however freeze under these conditions and today I was fixing freeze damage on hoses that popped late night.
We need rain
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Bruce Steele wrote: “We expect fires during Santa Ana conditions.“
People can see the increase in dry vegetation and address the elevated danger in their back yards, so to speak... but I imagine it’s difficult to foresee Santa Ana conditions which are suddenly stronger, and last longer, than has been the norm up to now.
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“About a dozen people at the fairgrounds shared similar stories: smelling and then seeing a roaring red gleam approaching so quickly that they barely had time to grab belongings— a task made even more difficult because of power outages.”
More Than 150,000 Ordered To Flee As Wildfires Torch Homes In Southern California
Strong winds caused multiple fires to explode Monday night and Tuesday morning, forcing more than 150,000 people to evacuate and prompting the California governor to declare a state of emergency.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/hazelshearing/a-huge-wildfire-is-tearing-through-southern-california
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" It does however freeze under these conditions and today I was fixing freeze damage on hoses that popped late night. "
Blow them out with compressed air if freeze is expected. The fitting is ez to make or you can just buy one. O, and make sure dripcock on compressor is not frozen either ...
Nuttn worse than fighting a fire in freeze and realizing the 200 feet of hose you unspooled in a hurry is frozen and ripped.
sidd
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Use caution on U/S 101 between Ventura and Santa Barbara. Fire is burning on both sides of the highway. Expect intermittent closures and/or CHP escorts through the area. #ThomasFire #sheriffvc
https://twitter.com/venturasheriff/status/938317111503532033
First photo below.
STUNNING: Pacific Ocean glows with reflection of the Thomas Fire after the wildfire jumps Highway 101 between Ventura and Santa Barbara. http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2017/12/06/thomas-fire-jumps-highway-101/
https://twitter.com/cbsla/status/938394398114635776
Second photo below.
My friend Jim Bob Barnett took this photo last night from Ortega Hill in Summerland. Stay safe everyone! #ThomasFire
https://twitter.com/ashleydevan/status/938076812667523072
Third photo below.
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Climate context for the horrific #ThomasFire:
–Temperatures in the 80s all week, +15 above normal
–Just 0.11" of rain since Oct 1 in L.A., 94% below normal
–Exceptional Santa Ana event, with wind gusts near hurricane force
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/938136528773177344
This paper proposes a link between climate change and stronger Santa Ana winds:
Identification of two distinct fire regimes in Southern California: implications for economic impact and future change
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094005
Flames leaping near the 405 in Los Angeles this morning.
Can you *imagine* if this was your commute to work?
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/938410214382014464
Brief video at the link.
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https://twitter.com/abc7leslielopez?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Enews%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
#SkirballFire UPDATE: The 405 Fwy is now CLOSED in both directions between the 101 Fwy and 10 Fwy as the 50-acre brush fire near the Getty Center continues to rage. Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for parts of Bel Air as the fire approaches homes in the area.
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Worth noting that even before this week's latest wildfires, 2017 was the third worst year on record for the USA for total hectares burned, after 2015 in first place and then 2006 in second place. A total of 9.19 million hectares had burned by the end of November https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/nfn.htm.
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...
#SkirballFire UPDATE: The 405 Fwy is now CLOSED in both directions between the 101 Fwy and 10 Fwy as the 50-acre brush fire near the Getty Center continues to rage. ...
Can’t help but think that Elon Musk’s planned tunnel, parallel to the 405, would still be a safe mode of transport in situations like this — unlike road or rail. And such situations will certainly continue to happen in the future.
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https://watchers.news/2017/12/06/socal-wildfires-los-angeles-ventura-declare-state-of-emergency-as-200-000-evacuate/
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Thick smoke streamed from several fires in southern California when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this natural-color image in the afternoon on December 5, 2017.
The largest of the blazes—the fast-moving Thomas fire in Ventura County—had charred more than 65,000 acres (24,000 hectares or 94 square miles), according to Cal Fire. Smaller smoke plumes from the Creek and Rye fires are also visible.
https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/91000/91379/ventura_tmo_2017239_lrg.jpg
Image below; more at the link.
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I happen to be in Ventura County this week. At my location the primary issue yesterday was poor air quality from smoke. The winds have been stiffening since daybreak and the Santa Ana’s will pick up again tonight. My first experience with CA wildfires, and it’s not something I prefer to repeat.
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I happen to be in Ventura County this week. At my location the primary issue yesterday was poor air quality from smoke. The winds have been stiffening since daybreak and the Santa Ana’s will pick up again tonight. My first experience with CA wildfires, and it’s not something I prefer to repeat.
On that note, the mortality figures given for wildfires are certainly an underestimate, since they'll only cover the deaths immediately and directly attributable, and not the deaths among the general population attributable to the worsening air quality.
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Our dry air mass (orange/red colors) seen on water vapor satellite this afternoon is about to get reinforcement. More dry air forming in NV will be here by Thu, combining with strong #SantaAnaWinds in most LA and Ventura Co. valleys and mountains. #LAWeather
https://twitter.com/nwslosangeles/status/938551079125602309
Photo below; GIF at the link.
Extremely critical fire weather conditions tonight-Thursday as strong and damaging #SantaAnaWinds combine with single digit humidities. Very rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior likely. #LAwind #LAWeather #cawx
https://twitter.com/nwslosangeles/status/938571775637639169
Photo below.
Scary quote from Cal Fire re: forecast tomorrow: "There will be no ability to fight fires in these kinds of winds." (80+ mph expected)
https://twitter.com/josephserna/status/938502870940315648
Literally off the charts fire danger in LA on Thursday. 162 and above = extreme
Tomorrow there will be 4% humidity and a Brush Burning index of 296. "This is the highest number I've ever seen in my career," said L.A. Fire Chief Ralph Terrazas.
More on the index here: http://www.lafd.org/news/how-does-lafd-determine-wildfire-danger-los-angeles
https://twitter.com/kpcc/status/938565891775590400
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New uses for technology in our increasingly dangerous climate-changed world.
This Is How California Officials Alerted Hundreds Of Thousands As Wildfires Approached Their Homes
In a rare move, California officials sent sweeping emergency alerts to hundreds of thousands of people as wildfires continued to rage.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/briannasacks/as-wildfires-rip-through-southern-california-heres-how
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Thomas Fire almost surrounds Ojai, California
Wednesday night the fire spread further up the coast toward Carpinteria
http://wildfiretoday.com/2017/12/07/thomas-fire-almost-surrounds-ojai-california/
Ludicrous Fire Weather predicted in Southern California through Saturday
http://wildfiretoday.com/2017/12/06/ludicrous-fire-weather-predicted-in-southern-california-through-saturday/
Below: Map of the Thomas Fire. The red dots represent heat detected by a satellite in the 12 hours before 2 a.m. PST December 7. The red line was the perimeter 24 hours before, and the yellow line was about 48 hours before.
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California's Climate Emergency
Fires continue to burn Southern California, and climate scientists have warned us for years that the region was entering a year-round fire regime
For years, climate scientists have warned us that California was entering a year-round fire regime. For years, climate campaigners have been wondering what it would take to get people to wake up to the urgency of cutting fossil fuel emissions. For years, we've been tip-toeing as a civilization towards a point of no return.
That time is now.
The advent of uncontrollable wintertime megafires in California is a turning point in America's struggle to contain the impacts of a rapidly changing climate. Conditions that led to the Thomas fire won't happen every year, but the fact that they're happening at all should shock us. ...
http://www.rollingstone.com/culture/features/southern-california-wildfires-climate-change-emergency-w513659
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There were multiple emergency notices that went out over the I-phone last night. The fire has jumped into Santa Barbara county and is rapidly moving west. There are evacuations now in the hills from Carpenteria to Montecito. Santa Ana winds are still blowing. There is a very thick tree canopy throughout most of Montecito. The fire on the ridge line is now in the area above Jameson reservoir so any change in winds that become northerly would be worst case.
A local newsfeed called Noozhawk has been the best source of ongoing news stories .
Here is a satellite heat map from last night. Is
https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/939859196895514624/photo/1
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Santa Barbara County coastal towns under siege as Thomas fire rages
The Santa Barbara County coastal towns of Carpinteria and Montecito were under siege from the Thomas fire Sunday morning as the destructive blaze again raged out of control.
...
The Thomas fire has burned 155,000 acres and forced 88,000 people to flee their homes. Official estimates have put the cost of combating the fire at $25 million. ...
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-thomas-fire-santa-barbara-fire-20171210-story.html
From earlier:
In all, there are six wildfires burning in Southern California. About 8,500 firefighters are battling the fires, which have collectively burned 175,000 acres.
“We’re facing a new reality in this state, where fires threatened people’s lives, their properties, their neighborhoods and billions and billions of dollars. So we have to have the resources to combat the fires,” [California Gov. Jerry] Brown told reporters at a news conference at the Ventura County Fairgrounds.
The governor thanked firefighters for their efforts and expressed sympathy for residents who had lost their homes and animals, calling it a “horror” and “terrible tragedy for so many people.”
Brown added that climate change may exacerbate the weather conditions that caused the wildfires to explode.
“This is the new normal, and this could be something that happens every year or every few years,” he said. “We’re about to have a firefighting Christmas.” ...
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-wildfires-california-20171209-story.html
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CALFIRE map. The Thomas fire is upper left.
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“Latest CA fire outlook:
–Offshore winds locked in until at least Friday (a streak of 13 days in a row).
–No rain in Southern California until at least Dec. 26th (16 days from now.)
–Temperatures remain ~10°F above normal for foreseeable future.
Not good. ... “
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/939928521434116101
THE CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES COULD CONTINUE UNTIL CHRISTMAS
• Thomas fire is the first megafire in recorded California history in the month of December.
• That the fires are happening when the rainy season is normally already in full swing is one thing, but the extent and unpredictability of the flames continue to astound officials tasked with stopping their spread.
https://psmag.com/environment/california-wildfires-no-end-in-sight
#ThomasFire now the 10th largest fire in California state history. And it's happening in December.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/939901588403040256
Article and photo at the link.
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Brief video at the link shows what they are up against. :'(
#ThomasFire- Fire engines parked in front of homes at Cate School in Carpinteria. In the field are off-loaded Fire dozer transports. The dozers and operators are out making nearby fire breaks.
https://twitter.com/eliasonmike/status/939846647772614659
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#ThomasFire in #Ventura and #SantaBarbara counties now over 200,000 acres and still rapidly growing. Given extreme dryness of vegetation, persistent #SantaAna winds, & recent record warmth, could ultimately become largest fire in California history. In December. #CAwx #CAfire
https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/940024817453076480
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At 230,000 acres, Thomas is now the fifth largest fire in modern CA history, and it just went down from 15% contained to 10%.
That's 360 square miles, or 930 square kilometers.
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It's also not that far off the largest fire in modern Cal history :-S
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The smoke from the fire was Terrible yesterday. My solar system that was putting out
~ 3000 W at noon before the fire was only putting out 300 W yesterday. It would have been a blue sky but we never saw anything but a blood red sun and an Martian red sky. My wife and I holed up in the house but the critters have been in crappy air for a week now. One sow had what appeared to be a stroke but I don't know if the smoke had anything to do with it . She is still ambulatory but her front and rear legs on one side are having trouble.
Things are somewhat better today, I can see some blue . I can remember smog from the seventies that was similar to today's conditions.
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“Ferocious Santa Ana winds could gust between 40-55 mph on Monday before tapering, CNN meteorologist Rachel Aissen said. Ventura County and surrounding areas are under an elevated fire outlook, with temperatures remaining between 78-82 degrees as humidity continues to fall.”
California wildfires now larger than New York City and Boston combined
http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/11/us/california-wildfires/index.html
More photos at the link.
Below: “Palm trees sway in a gust of wind as a firefighter carries a hose while battling a wildfire at Faria State Beach in Ventura on December 7. The windswept blazes have forced tens of thousands of evacuations and destroyed homes.”
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Additional evacuations along the southern California coast, and urgent warnings about the dangerous air quality.
Calmer Winds Allow Crews To Get Strategic While Feverishly Protecting Montecito Mansions
Red Flag warnings for fire danger due to Santa Ana winds and a critical lack of moisture were extended into the week instead of expiring Monday afternoon as was initially forecast.
“It doesn’t get much drier than this folks,” the National Weather Service Service tweeted, adding that more than 80 observation sites in the region reported afternoon relative humidity levels between just 1 and 9 percent.
On Monday, ash fell like snow and heavy smoke had residents gasping for air in foothill towns near Santa Barbara, the latest flare-up after a week of wind-fanned wildfires throughout the region.
http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2017/12/12/santa-ana-winds-santa-barbara/
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“It's December. This is the rainy season on the West Coast. In California, it's missing right now.
Total rainfall forecast for the next 15 days:
Not a drop over Southern California.
The #ThomasFire is now 8x the size of San Francisco, and likely to grow further.”
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/940962960654004224
Image below.
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Due to the interface between the inland and the oceans we tend to get offshore winds at night as the inland areas cool ( and the ocean is relatively warm ) and the reverse
of a warm inland and a relatively cool ocean resulting in daytime upslope winds. The firefighters use these conditions to create a fire break between the heavily populated coastal areas and the heavy vegetation in the inland areas by " firing off " the chaparral during the daytime upslope winds. They are contemplating a very large burn tomorrow because there is a potential sundowner ( very strong downslope winds ) this weekend. They are running out of time. The decision hasn't been made yet but tomorrow's the day
There are now ~ 8,000 firefighters and 500 or 600 engines working this fire. Just one single home in Montecito can cost 30 million dollars. A bad decision might be very expensive.
There are of course risks if they get the timing wrong.
https://www.noozhawk.com/article/incident_commanders_eye_firing_operation_to_stop_thomas_fire
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Stay safe Bruce,
I'm sure you've done everything possible to protect yourself, your family, and your pigs. Just don't be tempted into heroics, even pigs can be replaced.
Terry
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SB fire history tends to be repeated . I don't live there anymore. Where I live in the Santa Ynez valley is fairly safe. If I was forced to prepare pigs for a fire I would make a big big wallow in the middle of a big dry paddock and fence them into the wallow . Kinda like getting into a swimming pool is about your best bet if you can't get out in your car..
Please don't worry about an old swineherd, worry about why rich people in Montecito refuse to ration their water during a drought or even limit new well permits. Worry about why they refuse to reduce the fuel load that surrounds their homes and create a defendable space. And finally worry why the rest of us are forced to pay a tax load to protect the real pigs. 30 million dollar homes, private jets ,a couple Teslas , and staff to keep up the grounds but firemen brought in from places like Oxnard or Compton.
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CAL FIRE update, December 14, 2017 6:23 am
Thomas Fire
Acres Burned - Containment: 242,500 acres - 30% contained
Structures Threatened: 18,000 structures threatened
Structures Destroyed: 972 Structures Destroyed, 221 Structures Damaged
Now #4 largest California fire. In December! — well into what used to be the state’s rainy season. Fire season is now year-round. :'(
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It's still early, but California's snowpack is running far behind schedule so far–just 37% of normal.
Continued warm and dry through at least Dec 30th.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/941124618185736192
Image below.
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Extreme fire behavior today at the #ThomasFire — one firefighter has been killed in the line of duty.
Rose Valley, California is north of Ojai.
#ThomasFire: Fire is now well established on the north side of Rose Valley. Crews are unable to control it.
https://twitter.com/vcscanner/status/941409502246584320
Was embedded with a crew on the Montecito side of the fire photographing a 1+ mile long firing operation. Left at 315am. The burnover allegedly occurred on the Fillmore side of the fire later in the morning. The fire is going crazy right now in Rose Valley. #thomasfire #lodd
https://twitter.com/stuartpalley/status/941410102027808768
I am very saddened to report that a firefighter fatality has occurred on the Thomas Incident. Please join me in keeping our fallen firefighter and his loved ones in your prayers. - @CALFIRE_CHIEF
http://cdfdata.fire.ca.gov/pub/cdf/images/incidentfile1922_3242.pdf
News release at the link.
THE THOMAS FIRE COULD BECOME THE LARGEST WILDFIRE IN CALIFORNIA HISTORY
Weather models continue to show absolutely no rainfall until December 30th at the earliest.
https://psmag.com/environment/thomas-fire-could-become-largest-in-california-history
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Wildfire burning in Custer State Park in the Black Hills of South Dakota, in December. Extremely unusual, never happened before. This comes on the heels of a severe drought which has yet to resolve itself.
http://rapidcityjournal.com/news/local/legion-lake-fire-now-percent-contained-more-than-square-miles/article_1fc9c496-beac-5501-9b2c-3032aa8762b1.html
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SB fire history tends to be repeated . I don't live there anymore. Where I live in the Santa Ynez valley is fairly safe. If I was forced to prepare pigs for a fire I would make a big big wallow in the middle of a big dry paddock and fence them into the wallow . Kinda like getting into a swimming pool is about your best bet if you can't get out in your car..
Please don't worry about an old swineherd, worry about why rich people in Montecito refuse to ration their water during a drought or even limit new well permits. Worry about why they refuse to reduce the fuel load that surrounds their homes and create a defendable space. And finally worry why the rest of us are forced to pay a tax load to protect the real pigs. 30 million dollar homes, private jets ,a couple Teslas , and staff to keep up the grounds but firemen brought in from places like Oxnard or Compton.
The wallow sounds like a lifesaver, BTW - hope the sow is recovering.
I'd thought you were further south, and had been worrying. The wife and I used to spend our 4th of July weekends in, and about Lompoc, as we found the whole region, with the exception of Santa Barbara, to have a wonderful ambiance so missed while living in the plastic jungle of Las Vegas.
In our last few trips we'd noted the ever expanding vineyards, each with it's mandatory mansion. We eventually headed further up the coast in our attempts to leave the madness behind.
I'd read somewhere that the California Penal System hasn't been able to provide their fair share of slave prison labor to fight the fires this year. Something to do with the "Sanctuary Cities Movement" was being blamed for this critical shortage of indentured labor.
These are dirty, dangerous, jobs, and a little additional (cattle) prodding has traditionally filled the gap.
Terry
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Terry, I know you had a place in San Bernadino and that you also knew the Great Basin. Lompoc is close to where I live and yes vineyards and mansions have taken over what used to be Lima beans and Garbonzo Beans that were dry farmed for five generations around here before grapes took over. Pot farms are springing up now with about 150 large greenhouses popping up within two miles of where live over the last year. I am but a simple pig farmer and I don't have visions of vast wealth dancing in my head like sugar plum fairies . Maybe growing up in places like Winnemuca, Baker city, and Livingston temper a honest mans expectations.
I still can see the Milky Way at night .I still have coyotes, cougar, and roadrunners as occasional visitors. Something always tugs at me to venture far afield . Most people don't want to live hard agains't the anvil but when civilization decides a pig farmer isn't what they want for a neighbor I will move someplace else .
I know I am off topic but I hope Terry and I can reminisce on memories of where we both have lived
Back on topic. I said a couple days ago that sundowners and strong north winds were the biggest threat to S.B. Saturday is going to test the fire lines in S.B. Sunday and Monday will result in Northeasters for Ventura county and the Sespe Wilderness will fry. I have hiked hundreds and hundreds of miles of the wilderness that has already burnt and as the fire digs deeper into the backcountry it will burn a lot more that I know from all the time I have been privileged to spend there. I worry the wildlife hasn't had refuge from the inferno. Sometimes our fires burn in a patchwork that provides some opportunity for survival but the drought, the dryness and the deadwood are going to be a death knell I am afraid. So many springs have dried up already...
My family has lived around here for 150 years and our ( human. ) complicity in all this destruction wears on my soul. Millions and millions of my fellow human cohabitants don't feel my pain for the Coyotes, Cougars, and minions lost. They can't feel for what they know not.
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How is the sow doing, please Bruce?
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My family has lived around here for 150 years and our ( human. ) complicity in all this destruction wears on my soul. Millions and millions of my fellow human cohabitants don't feel my pain for the Coyotes, Cougars, and minions lost. They can't feel for what they know not.
The least informed of us humans will be feeling the pain soon enough, pain that will dwarf the hurt that families who are losing their homes now feel.
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I got up before dawn and started watching live coverage on the local TV . Conditions seemed rather mild but within a half hour there were reports of downslope winds at 36 mph all along the ridge line from Montecito to Gaviota. The fire moved very quickly with spot fires jumping out in front of the majority of the flames. If the fire gets much closer to town I expect new evacuations will be be put in place and the cellphone will buzz with the new notices. I will post if that happens. We are going to have strong winds all day with the worst expected at dusk hence the term " sundowner "
There was an oil delivery truck that overturned on the Northbound lanes of the 101 freeway last night in SB and the northbound lanes have been closed for 9 hours. The 192 is the route locals would usually use to circumvent a freeway closure but it is closed due to the fire. Anyone headed north out of L.A. should take the 5 , avoid the 101.
Latest weather service has reported gusts to 55 mph above Montecito
Allison, I posted earlier about the sow... then erased the bad news. She was having lots of trouble with the front and rear legs on her right side. She was having difficulty standing. Sometimes being a farmer requires tough choices. I sold pigs to a lady who lived in the hills above Santa Paula in Wheeler canyon It burned there so fast there wouldn't have been any chance of evacuating her animals. Her phone lines are down.
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Mandatory evacuations have just been put in place for most of Montecito, everything North of the 101 is now mandatory. The cell phone is buzzing right now. This could become the most expensive fire in US history( today ) is if things go badly wrong.
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Looking pretty nasty in Santa Barbara. Live news coverage here
http://www.ksby.com/category/297505/live-stream
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Thank you Bruce. Your animals are fortunate to have you. Very best.
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Tweets from yesterday:
Conditions will be suitable for rapid wildfire growth and extreme fire behavior in *Northern California* tomorrow.
Impossible to overstate how unusual this is for mid-December.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/941684353523908608
NWS Bay Area: Critical Fire Weather conditions over portions of #CA the next two days. @NWSSPC has elevated and critical areas highlighted. Red Flag Warning remains in effect for #BayArea #cawx #cafire
https://twitter.com/nwsbayarea/status/941653277481029637
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From ~one hour ago:
VCFD PIO: #ThomasFire -Fire intensity increasing in the Santa Barbara area.
https://twitter.com/vcfd_pio/status/942085986846044160
Photo below.
VCFD PIO: #ThomasFire The strongest N winds will occur across in a SB AREA this morning & the strongest NE winds will occur in Ventura, Sunday morning
https://twitter.com/vcfd_pio/status/942089058011852800
The #thomasfire is moving quickly today, as wind speeds pick up. It’s headed towards Montecito.
https://twitter.com/yamphoto/status/942086473234313217
Brief video at the link.
Update: #ThomasFire experiencing explosive growth on the western edge near #SantaBarbara , strong sundowner winds expected to develope this evening, could be a dangerous day out there. Don't wait to evacuate !
https://twitter.com/epn473/status/942086767909285890
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Live news stream.
http://www.ksby.com/category/297505/live-stream
Homes in Montecito are burning.
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VCFD PIO: #ThomasFire -"Fire Front Following" tactic will be used if the expected wind pushes the fire downhill into Montecito/Santa Barbara areas.
https://twitter.com/vcfd_pio/status/942087332986896384
Google:
Fire front following is a fast-paced, defensive tactic that allows firefighters to defend structures while continuously advancing, but staying just behind the fire front, in the black.
"Fire Front Following" is an extreme tactic designed to preserve firefighter safety when "the chances of success are impossible".
http://www.firerescuemagazine.com/articles/print/volume-11/issue-10/wildland-urban-interface/fire-front-following.html
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/942104607328821249
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CAL FIRE: #ThomasFire - The Santa Barbara County Sheriff has issued mandatory evacuation orders and evacuation warnings for Santa Barbara county.
http://www.fire.ca.gov/current_incidents/incidentdetails/Index/1922
Full news release and other information at the link.
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Half of the city of Santa Barbara is now under either a voluntary or mandatory evacuation due to the massive Thomas Fire.
New evacuation orders for Santa Barbara County as winds pick up, threatening hundreds of homes in Montecito
Wind gusts of up to 65 mph blasted south down the San Ysidro Creek drainage directly into Montecito.
‘Unfortunately they under-predicted this one,” Zaniboni said. “We weren’t expecting this severe of a wind event and we’re certainly getting the worst...This fire is two weeks old and here we are battling it like it just started again this morning.”
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-thomas-fire-ledeall-20171216-story.html
NWS Los Angeles: Red Flag Warning in effect for much of LA/Ventura counties tonight-Sunday due to #SantaAnaWinds gusting 35-55 mph and low humidities. Potential for very rapid fire spread #LAWind #LAWeather.
https://twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/942144563568873477
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VIIRS satellite fire detections show #ThomasFire's rapid spread to the west due to 12/16 strong winds. Red=newer, yellow=older. Green line is fire boundary late last night. Evacuate early if authorities notify you.
https://twitter.com/bbdd333/status/942182173687267328
Image below.
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#ThomasFire now approaching largest fire in California history at 267,500 acres this evening and 40% contained. Largest previous Fire was the 273,246 acre Cedar Fire. #VenturaCounty #SantaBarbara
https://twitter.com/Info_CIIMT1/status/942215620963139584
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Just heard that California has some big wildfires about. Check it out, other Europeans. Are the republicans fleeing or fighting the fires?
(edit: Ah, sigmetnow has reported this already. Anyway, first i heard in finnish.
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@Pmt111500 Here in France the California fires have made it to the breaking news in all mainstream media more than a week ago. But we are certainly more concerned in Southern Europe, south of France (where I live), Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece ... where wildfires are becoming with years more frequent and destructive. What happens to California is just an ominous prefiguration of what we have to expect here in the years to come, with basically the same ingredients : dry forest and brush in remote mountains, anarchical urbanization, powerful local dry winds (the infamous "mistral" in Provence), longer and hotter droughts.
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The fire in the Montecito-Santa Barbara area seems to have for the most part burned itself out overnight. There were a couple homes lost but it is a testament to the firefighters skill and planning that things didn't go much worse.
There will be three days of good weather to snuff out the small hot spots still burning on the West end of the fire. The East end of the fire by Fillmore and the back country are still troublesome but how we got through yesterday without larger losses is just amazing.
I would have predicted worse but my guesses on various polls on this forum force me to question my predictive skills. There have been multiple fires in the years I have been living around here where hundreds of houses burned but S.B. looks to have dodged the bullet this time.
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It seems that this year worst case scenarios have come true more often than usual. I'm very glad to hear that this wasn't one of those. Stay safe.
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VCFD PIO: #ThomasFire -Firefighters achieved huge successes yesterday during a BIG firefight to hold their line & SAVED hundreds of homes in Montecito
https://twitter.com/VCFD_PIO/status/942456877253763072
Map at the link.
NWS Los Angeles: Red Flag Warnings in effect for much of LA/Ventura counties until 8 pm this evening. Potential for very rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior due to strong #SantaAnaWinds. #LAWind #LAWeather
https://twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/942455521096994817
Image from: https://twitter.com/eric_doherty/status/942464240853512192
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Thomas fire now at 271,750 acres in size, which is less than 2000 acres below the Califirnuan record, but also 50% contained now, thankfully http://m.fire.ca.gov/IncidentsCurrent.aspx
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The winds that have been driving the Thomas fire are due to return today: http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-fire-ledeall-20171220-story.html
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Thomas Fire
272,000 acres - 60% contained
Last Updated: 2017-12-20 09:31:00
Cal Fire (http://m.fire.ca.gov/IncidentsCurrent.aspx)
#2 for size of post 1932 fires in California
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Congrats to @usfs fire photographer @stuartpalley for capturing this poignant shot at the #ThomasFire this week.
Firefighters there are working through the holidays—during the middle of what's normally the "rainy" season. The humanity of life in the anthropocene.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/943925206543949824
Image below.
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272,200 acres - 60% contained (+200 a. from yesterday)
Last Updated: 2017-12-21 11:08:00
Cal Fire (http://m.fire.ca.gov/IncidentsCurrent.aspx)
Still #2 (1,046 acres less than #1 or about 1/3 of 1% [3.8‰] less than #1)
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I used to have a 125 lb. dog that was a good hiking partner. We would go off trail and that often required crawling under the brush known as chaparel . The dog would make better time than I could and when I was completely stymied I would call out to him and wherever he crashed back through the heavy cover I would follow because he could find the game trails with his nose. If you look at the attached photo you wouldn't know these slopes were ever completely brush covered for the last hundred years. Like I said before the game it protected is gone. I am still hoping for rain this season but any heavy rains will be scary . I miss the dog, he was a real trooper.
https://www.noozhawk.com/article/ray_ford_thomas_fire_causes_serious_damage_to_frontcountry_trails
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Thomas fire becomes largest wildfire on record in California.
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-thomas-fire-size-20171222-20171222-htmlstory.html
"The Thomas fire on Friday became California’s largest wildfire on record, burning 273,400 acres during its destructive march across Ventura and Santa Barbara counties.
The fire eclipsed the 2003 Cedar fire in San Diego County, which burned 273,246 acres."
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“The [Thomas] fire area has not received any rainfall over .10 inches since February. Live fuel conditions are far below critical levels.“
CALFIRE Incident Update and photo:
https://twitter.com/LosPadresNF/status/944422029360377857
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That is, the largest fire in California (counting only California territory) since 1932.
Rush Fire in 2012 burned 315,577 acres, 43,666 acres in Nevada.
Santiago Canyon Fire of 1889 burned at least 300,000 acres.
per Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_California_wildfires)
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I mentioned before that I had sold some pigs to a lady who lived up Wheeler Canyon, a long dead end canyon road downwind and close to where the fire started. I had tried her phone but only got a strange tone. The roads are open so I took a drive to see how her farm had fared. As I feared she was totally burned out but amazingly her livestock survived even as the house and barns burnt to the ground.
Now however without power her friends were hand watering her 60 or seventy head of alpacas, pigs and horses. Neighbors were pitching in to help clean up and fixing the fences to keep the stock within her very scorched perimeter.
I did make contact and I am going to buy back as many pigs as I can market or afford. I told her that I would be willing to sell her new stock when she got back on her feet for whatever price she sold me the now stranded herd members. The wooden bridge to her property was burnt out but she said it was the first priority and would be replaced soon.
She was apparently there as the fire arrived because she told me the pigs were calm and never panicked even as the flames burned everything around them.
I am going to be challenged both monetarily and logistically in trying to get her pigs to market . I hope my restaurant customers can step up and handle some extra product. Like I said already I will be here if and when she wants to grow her herd again but these sorts of experiences leave any farmer questioning whether they want to start again.
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Australia.
Natalie Peters:
My parents are evacuating their home at Mulgoa (with all the relatives there for Christmas in tow) due to a nearby bushfire. Thinking of everyone out there right now, and thanking all the @NSWRFS crews. #sydney
https://twitter.com/nataliejpeters/status/944792739375222785
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Extraordinary double green-flash sunset from San Diego, enhanced by smoke from the California fires--maybe the only good thing to come from them. (Photo: Chris Mannerino) http://earthsky.org/todays-image/photo-double-green-flash-san-diego
https://twitter.com/coreyspowell/status/944578147982495749
Photo below.
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Totally amazing!
I had no idea that a double green flash was even possible.
Terry
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Thomas Fire is now 281,620 acres in size, but 86% contained. http://m.fire.ca.gov/IncidentsCurrent.aspx
1500 fire fighters are still working on bringing this completely under control: http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-thomas-fire-christmas-20171225-story.html
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Dec 30, 2017:
#ThomasFire [update] north of Santa Paula (Ventura and Santa Barbara County) per @LosPadresNF remains 281,893 acres and 92% contained. (link: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/5670/) inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/5670/
https://twitter.com/CAL_FIRE/status/947143807786631168
Photo below.
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Keeping global warming within 1.5 °C constrains emergence of aridification (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4) in Nature Climate Change is paywalled but Phys.Org says (https://phys.org/news/2018-01-significantly-drier-world.html)
Dr Chang-Eui Park from SusTech, one of the authors of the study, said: "Aridification is a serious threat because it can critically impact areas such as agriculture, water quality, and biodiversity. It can also lead to more droughts and wildfires - similar to those seen raging across California.
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Thomas Fire in Southern California:
Goleta, Calif., January 2, 2018 — For Immediate Release.
Start Date: December 4, 2017 Cause: Under Investigation Size: 281,893 acres
Containment: 92% Personnel: 487 Structures Destroyed: 1,063 Structures Damaged: 280
source: inciweb (https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/5670/)
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Fire reductions 'make methane numbers add up'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-42555568
Wildfires in particular have been going down as the amount of land under agricultural control has expanded.
Surprised me a little.
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It's January! And California is still dealing with elevated wildfire risk.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/948291451032567808
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Fire reductions 'make methane numbers add up'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-42555568
Wildfires in particular have been going down as the amount of land under agricultural control has expanded.
Surprised me a little.
Yes, I saw that as well, and felt the same. It does seem to be borne out by the data, though:
http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/royptb/371/1696/20150345.full.pdf
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Fire reductions 'make methane numbers add up'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-42555568
Wildfires in particular have been going down as the amount of land under agricultural control has expanded.
Surprised me a little.
I've noticed that the BBC is getting a little better in it's reporting of climate change after years (particularly since 2007 (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6979596.stm)) of hiding the awful truth from it's audience (https://dontlooknow.org/2015/12/30/more-climate-silence-from-the-bbc/).
In the title the term "Fire reductions" makes me suspicious that there is still an element of climate hiding at the BBC. The article says
The mean burnt area (a priori)-based estimate from GFED4s is slightly larger and shows a slightly smaller decrease (2.3 Tg CH4 per year) in fire emissions after 2007 relative to the 2001–2006 time period.
but also points out
Wetter years associated with La Nina during the 2008 through 2014 time periods likely contributed to the observed decrease in fire emissions in South America and Indonesia. It is also
likely that this increased precipitation in these regions affects the fuel moisture content and in turn the combustion efficiency of the fires.
So there may have been less biomass burning as "the amount of land under agricultural control has expanded" but comparing a few dryer El Niño years with some wetter La Nina years does not amount to a "Fire reductions" trend.
I know the BBC piece does not actually claim a fire reduction trend but I think it's implied. Am I just being too suspicious?
Note: I have an FOI with the BBC "Can I use a BBC image, which makes it look like Jeremy Corbyn is using Nazi salute? (https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/can_i_use_a_bbc_image_which_make#outgoing-689541)" which is long overdue. I suspect someone in the BBC cropped the picture (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-40393921/jeremy-corbyn-appears-at-glastonbury) to give the impression of a Nazi salute - to me it looked even more Nazi-like in the thumbnail that was on the News page. I want to show the original and the BBC-cropped version. The request is long overdue.
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Yes, I saw that as well, and felt the same. It does seem to be borne out by the data, though:
http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/royptb/371/1696/20150345.full.pdf
Perhaps Leon Festinger's cognative dissonance (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance) (aka stubborness) has got me but I'm not convinced by the Royal Society paper
What is not spreading equally well is the recognition
that fire is a fundamental natural ecological agent in many
of our ecosystems and only a ‘problem’ where we choose
to inhabit these fire-prone regions or we humans introduce
it to non-fire-adapted ecosystems [3]. The ‘wildfire problem’
is essentially more a social than a natural one.
In the back of my mind is
a) Fires may spread to a drier Amazon basin causing enormous release of carbon.
b) The Indonesian fires of 1997 & 2015 were related to palm oil production.
c) Canadian wildfires are encouraged by changes in insect infestations caused by climate change.
d) Increased wildfire in the Arctic
But to be more specific on the RoyalSoc paper...
75 deaths a year rising to 100,000 deaths in a year
In the RoyalSoc paper, I'm surprised by "Table 2. Human and economic losses from wildfire ‘disasters’ by global region from 1984 to 2013". This reports 748 people killed in Asia in a decade (75 deaths a year?)when Columbia and Harvard research tells us Southeast Asia Haze Caused Over 100,000 Deaths (http://environment.harvard.edu/news/faculty-news/southeast-asia-haze-caused-over-100000-deaths-study-says),
A study by two U.S. universities estimated that more than
100,000 people in parts of Southeast Asia died prematurely
last year from breathing the noxious haze related to fires
set to clear land for agriculture.
$1.2 billion a year costs rising to 16.1 billion costs in a year
Table 2 also gives the economic cost of the fires in Asia as $11.9 billion for the decade ($1.2 biliion a year?) but the World Bank estimated (http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/776101467990969768/pdf/103668-BRI-Cost-of-Fires-Knowledge-Note-PUBLIC-ADD-NEW-SERIES-Indonesia-Sustainable-Landscapes-Knowledge-Note.pdf) the 2015 fires alone cost Indonesia $16.1 Billion. They also say
Calculating the GHG emissions from Indonesia’s
fires is difficult and hinges primarily on quantifying
the amount and depth of peatland burned. While
all fires produce GHG emissions, the CO2 emissions
from fire are usually balanced by regrowth after
the fire. However, this is not the case for peat fires
because they burn carbon that has been deposited
over thousands of years and cannot be replaced.
Peatlands have long been a target for land conversion
– draining seemingly unproductive swamp land and
then clearing it with fire for agriculture. Dry peatland is
quick to burn and difficult to extinguish.
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Thanks for the analysis, Geoff - I suspected that the paper wasn't actually realistic, but didn't like to cast aspersions without anything to back them up.
Among the most obvious alarm wells were indeed that the vast fires in Indonesia (especially) are directly related to increasing agricultural land use, and the huge swathes of fire-affected taiga and tundra in Siberia and North America... which I was fairly certain were increasing. Sounds like a case of extreme cherry-picking, but we'll have to look up the references they're citing to get to the bottom of it.
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NWS Los Angeles : Flash Flood Watch in effect Monday Night-Tuesday for recent burn areas of SBA, Ventura, LA counties. Significant threat for flash flooding/debris flows. Peak rainfall rates 0.50-1.00 inch per hour. Make preparations now and follow directions of local officials. #CAstorm #LArain
https://twitter.com/nwslosangeles/status/950065347629060098
Infographic at the link.
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Thomas Fire
same area and % containment, but updated info.
from inciweb (https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/5670/):
Current as of 1/6/2018, 9:09:54 P
Cause Unknown
Date of Origin Monday December 04th, 2017 approx. 06:35 AM
Location Ojai, Santa Paula, Ventura, Montecito, Carpenteria, Santa Barbara, Fillmore
Incident Commander California IMT3 IC Valencia
Current Situation
Total Personnel 326
Size 281,893 Acres
Percent of Perimeter Contained 92%
Estimated Containment Date Saturday January 20th, 2018 approx. 12:00 AM
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This is something i had never heard of before: Raptors spreading wildfires ... intentionally (!)
Bonta et al.
doi: 10.2993/0278-0771-37.4.700
"While driving past a smoky roadside fire on the Cape York Peninsula, QLD, Dick Eussen saw Black Kites swooping on prey amidst smoke and sparks, while others hopped about on the road in front of the fire as it burned itself out (Table 1:Record 14). He saw one bird swoop to grab a smoking stick in its talons, dropping it onto the road. The ember was apparently too hot for the kite to hold. Another was more successful, dropping a stick on the other side of the road in the unburnt grass, which soon flared up."
"In all, he put out seven fires, all caused by the kites."
"Fire-spreading by raptors is found across a 2400 km E-W and 1000 km N-S swath of northern Australia. The behavior is likely known to most, if not all, Aboriginal groups within this region. Most accounts and traditions unequivocally indicate intentionality on the part of three raptor species and a handful provide evidence of cooperative fire-spreading by select individuals from within larger fire-foraging raptor assemblages."
sidd
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Spreading grass fires to force their prey to flee....
Resulting in a short period of easy pickings –– then they abandon the ruined area, and move on. How human! :-\
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Here is why wildfires aren't always bad.
Spreading grass fires to force their prey to flee....
Resulting in a short period of easy pickings –– then they abandon the ruined area, and move on. How human! :-\
Not necessarily ruined. E.g. the deep fertile black soil (Chernozem) of Ukraine's wheat basket contains an enormous amount of fire derived carbon. Natural terra preta soil accumulated over millenia from grass fires.
Rodionov et al (2010), Black carbon in grassland ecosystems of the world
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009GB003669/full
Wolf et al (2014), Black carbon: Fire fingerprints in Pleistocene loess–palaeosol archives in Germany
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0146638014000618
Maximum BC amount occurred at times of intensive pedogenesis [soil formation]
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'Bet the Thomas fire is out now!
From weather.com (https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/2018-01-09-california-flooding-debris-flows-burn-areas) news:
The heaviest rain California's L.A. Basin has seen since last February, has triggered mudslides, rockslides, and debris flows over areas recently charred by destructive wildfires.
Parts of Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties, near the Thomas fire burn area were particularly hard hit Tuesday morning. Up to waist-high mud flowed into parts of Montecito, California, according to Santa Barbara County fire spokesman Mike Eliason.
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More on the post-wildfire floods in the Floods thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1951.msg138347.html#msg138347
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Here is why wildfires aren't always bad.
Spreading grass fires to force their prey to flee....
Resulting in a short period of easy pickings –– then they abandon the ruined area, and move on. How human! :-\
Not necessarily ruined. E.g. the deep fertile black soil (Chernozem) of Ukraine's wheat basket contains an enormous amount of fire derived carbon. Natural terra preta soil accumulated over millenia from grass fires.
...
And California’s giant Sequoia trees don’t spread their seeds until a wildfire opens up their cones. I know, it’s not all bad. ;)
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2017's Western #wildfire season cost at least $18 billion, tripling the previous record annual wildfire toll
https://mobile.twitter.com/climatenexus/status/950464716111077376
Weather and climate disasters cost the U.S. a record $306 billion in 2017
http://mashable.com/2018/01/08/2017-record-year-billion-dollar-disasters-third-warmest
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I know, it’s not all bad. ;)
Yup, sounds like trivializing Global Warming ;) Pleading guilty.
Anyhow, one of my more radical plans to save the carbon cycle involves managed forest fires. Of eucalypt no less. Coppiced eucalypt, however, not the huge firebombs that ravaged Australia and Portugal.
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I've been telling for almost a decade now that what is happening in California looks like a highway to desertification: Burn and flush, burn and flush, ... until all soil is gone and forests can no longer regrow.
But I'm not so sure about this theory. Any observations?
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I've been telling for almost a decade now that what is happening in California looks like a highway to desertification: Burn and flush, burn and flush, ... until all soil is gone and forests can no longer regrow.
But I'm not so sure about this theory. Any observations?
Observations suggest that SoCal especially is a place becoming less liveable and likely to degrade further.
Until recent years impacts of climate change in the so-called developed world have been transitory - large but short-term disruptions to normal life. Places like SoCal with massive and often badly planned urban development and a dodgy climate are therefore likely to be among the first to face more and more frequent disruptions from climate-driven events.
Life isn't fair in that California is in many ways a leader in combating climate change.
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Chumash Indians burnt the chaparel for thousands of years before white man arrived. They burned in the spring after the rain season so the wet ground wouldn't burn. They were trying to improve grass and feed to support more game. Condors thrived on the increased game and open areas to land and take off. They also hunted sea otters to help improve shellfish stocks, or that was the result.
I don't think California is " less livable " unless we turn off the power. This is LaLa land ( Disneyland ) and it is a manipulated environment. There is lots of building , growth and yes solar panels and Teslas but I would be careful about touting our environmental credentials . We are masters at deception and there is a profit in the dream.
Here is a real estate site for Montecito.
https://www.christiesrealestate.com/eng/sales/montecito-ca-usa
So if you would like a couple Teslas in your three car garage and live the dream you better pony up .
It is just a dream and there isn't anyone in the U.S.that can better afford to rebuild. They will continue to avoid creating defendable space to fight fires, they will continue to avoid water conservation, they will import all their food , and pay the help to keep it all beautiful. So please don't worry about the weather , global warming , fires, floods or food, some people have enough money to avoid reality.
If you'd like to get a better look at something closer to ground level and how thousands of Californians live plan your vacation for Fresno. Enjoy !
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from InciWeb (https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/article/5670/42440/)
01-11-2018 Daily Update Thomas Fire
Incident: Thomas Fire Wildfire
Released: 3 hrs. ago
Thomas Fire Update
Goleta, Calif., January 11th, 2018 — For Immediate Release.
Start Date: December 4, 2017 Cause: Under Investigation Size: 281,893 acres
Containment: 92% Personnel: 13 Structures Destroyed: 1,063 Structures Damaged: 280
Current Situation: Due to high wind, some over flights were cancelled yesterday. The flights will resume today to assess the Thomas Fire. The incident commander will be on these over flights for an evaluation of the containment percentage.
...
I'm surprised they haven't changed the containment percentage, but note they will discern this today. I note personnel is down to a bakers dozen.
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I know, it’s not all bad. ;)
Yup, sounds like trivializing Global Warming ;) Pleading guilty.
Anyhow, one of my more radical plans to save the carbon cycle involves managed forest fires. Of eucalypt no less. Coppiced eucalypt, however, not the huge firebombs that ravaged Australia and Portugal.
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I've been telling for almost a decade now that what is happening in California looks like a highway to desertification: Burn and flush, burn and flush, ... until all soil is gone and forests can no longer regrow.
But I'm not so sure about this theory. Any observations?
California has a very rich diversity of habitats. In the Thomas fire area, much of that is chaparral that has burned on a pretty regular basis. The soils are not usually very high in organic matter, except in the lower parts of the canyon where a more mesic micro-habitat can develop. Big/hot catastrophic fires can change the landscape in this area, but over time, the chaparral has a pretty good chance of re-establishing. The more mesic canyons, with some riparian vegetation, usually don't lose as much vegetation in the fires, nor lose all their organic content in the soils. The fires don't usually burn down hill as hot as the do up-hill, but this is a great simplification. in any case, those canyons can also recover, even if there are some pretty good debris flow floods. The debris flows are messy, and leave quite a bit of organic material along the channel, so the ability to recover is still there, albeit from the bottom up.
I spend a lot of time in the Sierras, and in the chaparral belt I expect over time, some of this to turn into blue oak-woodland due to climate change... But the big worry is that the yellow pine forest and black oak woodland (above the chaparral), with a decent organic content soils, will have much of its lower areas turn into chaparral, and lose its organic soils. The community above is red fir, and those soils are low in organic material, so the ability of black oaks to move up maybe limited - low water retention and low nutrients. If this is the scenario that climate change causes, then a loss of soil carbon in the Sierras would be positive feedback.
Fire looks to be the tipping point, with a plant community hanging on until a fire comes through. If we have a hot fire, the soils lose much of their organic matter, seed base, and seed donors. At that point, a new community type, if it is more in attuned to climate conditions, will be generated. Established communities can hang on in adverse climate conditions, at least for a while.
My two cents - from a systems ecologist that is making a SWAG!
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Welcome jmshelton and thanks for your interesting post.
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Insurers take a hard look at California and see growing wildfire risk
• California suffered record-breaking wildfires last year and now insurers are taking a harder look at fire risk.
• Urban areas are increasingly getting considered as a fire hazard.
• Insurers refused to renew thousands of policies in fire areas after previous disasters.
• A proposed state bill would limit insurers' ability to cut coverage in areas after a wildfire disaster.
...
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/18/after-wildfires-it-gets-tougher-to-insure-a-home-in-california.html
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“Wildfires are not at all common in northern California during mid-winter, when vegetation is normally very moist. But recent record warmth and prolonged dry spell have dried fuels to near/below record low levels for Feb. #CAwx #CAfire ”
https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/963288074959519744
Video at the link: CALFIRE Butte County.
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OK... this is not an area renowned for wildfires, at least in winter:
The Outer Hebrides
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-43277232
and West Highlands and Inner Hebrides of Scotland:
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/highlands/1426926/much-scotland-shivers-heavy-snow-three-wildfires-break-highlands-islands/
Yes, the rest of the country is covered by snow. There are some other recent (2013) records of March wildfires in the Northwest Highlands, but this is a little bit odd.
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There are fires already in southern Russia where the snow has melted away. (North from China.)
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=geographic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2018-04-04&z=3&v=119.51868264009883,47.812261278933015,136.39368264009883,57.374761278933015 (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=geographic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2018-04-04&z=3&v=119.51868264009883,47.812261278933015,136.39368264009883,57.374761278933015)
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The suggestion is the fires in eastern Russia were started by people on purpose.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=91969&src=twitter-nh
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Are these fires in Southeast Asia unnatural too?
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=geographic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2018-04-13&z=3&v=91.53684662794848,14.278470668632277,108.41184662794848,23.840970668632277 (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=geographic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2018-04-13&z=3&v=91.53684662794848,14.278470668632277,108.41184662794848,23.840970668632277)
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/04/14/1200Z/chem/surface/level/overlay=cosc/orthographic=-261.18,20.51,1613/loc=102.472,20.753 (https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/04/14/1200Z/chem/surface/level/overlay=cosc/orthographic=-261.18,20.51,1613/loc=102.472,20.753)
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Are these fires in Southeast Asia unnatural too?
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=geographic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2018-04-13&z=3&v=91.53684662794848,14.278470668632277,108.41184662794848,23.840970668632277 (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=geographic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2018-04-13&z=3&v=91.53684662794848,14.278470668632277,108.41184662794848,23.840970668632277)
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/04/14/1200Z/chem/surface/level/overlay=cosc/orthographic=-261.18,20.51,1613/loc=102.472,20.753 (https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/04/14/1200Z/chem/surface/level/overlay=cosc/orthographic=-261.18,20.51,1613/loc=102.472,20.753)
Good question. Is this an area where people burn cover off the fields every year? That's what started the fires in Russia. It also is what caused the insane smog over India this past year. We are our own worst enemy.
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Oklahoma. In addition to today’s midwest blizzard and southeast tornadoes, Oklahoma has Wildfires.
“#okfire Western OK has taken a major hit. Over 350k acres burned, fatalities, lost homes and property. And the fires and extreme fire conditions continue. ”
https://twitter.com/george_geissler/status/985607378551918592
Images at the link.
NWS:
“Sunday included a much-needed respite from widespread critical fire weather in the southern Plains where numerous wildfires that began last week continue. Unfortunately, critical-to-extremely critical fire weather will return with a vengeance on Monday and persist through much of the workweek. These conditions include strong winds, low humidity, and severe-to-exceptional drought. Any new or existing fires in the southern High Plains and Desert Southwest will be able to spread rapidly.”
https://www.facebook.com/NWS/posts/10156943067974041
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/overview.html
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Sydney bushfire: Blaze remains out of control as authorities talk extra funding out of fire season
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-16/sydney-bushfire-conditions-ease-for-firefighters/9660818 (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-16/sydney-bushfire-conditions-ease-for-firefighters/9660818)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fnews%2Fimage%2F9660990-3x2-700x467.jpg&hash=8107dbb07409490f0b3f678f2ea56ddc)
Although fires like this are a new phenomenon in late Autumn in Eastern Australia, climate change rarely gets a mention.
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Upgraded to Extremely Critical:
“1:40am CDT #SPC Day2 #FireWX Extremely Critical: a large part of the southern rockies and adjacent southern/central high plains...”
https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/985769902995894272
Image below.
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3 Dogs Are Rebuilding Chilean Forests Once Devastated By Fire
Last year, forest fires in central Chile wreaked havoc in the El Maule region with more than 100 different wildfires sweeping through the area and destroying over a million acres of forest land. It was the worst wildfire season in the country’s history, taking several lives and created an estimated $333 million of dollars worth of damages. The animals were forced to flee to safer areas.
The job to replant endless acres of forests seemed like a daunting endeavor. That is until three unusual workers took up the task. Six-year-old Das and her two daughters, Olivia and Summer are three Border Collies who have been trained to run through the damaged forests with special backpacks that release native plant seeds. Once they take root, these seeds will help regrow the destroyed area. ...
http://www.greenmatters.com/amp/living/2018/02/19/2m3wBf/border-collies-forest
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“Finished the day watching logged Greater Glider habitat burning, smoking and choking Melbourne and the Yarra Valley. #habitat ... #pollution #climate #wildlife ”
https://twitter.com/sarahrees/status/987675099061874691
Image below.
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there is a lot of smoke on worldview today rising from Siberia .. some fires have been burning for a while . The number and scale is increasing rapidly . A look @ 54'N and 128'E will put you in the picture .. b.c.
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Copernicus has a nice wildfire application, indeed showing plenty of them in southern west Siberia.
http://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/maps/fire-activity#1._fire_radiative_power_[w_m-2]_(provided_by_cams,_the_copernicus_atmosphere_monitoring_service)/5/11.997/-90.055
What i noticed most the past weeks is many fires in central America, places like Honduras and Nicaragua.
Rainforest area that is so could be slash and burn i guess....
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Thick smoke on May 9 in Eastern Russia.
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“High levels of carbon monoxide from #AmurOblast #Russia #wildfires reaching into the #Arctic in the latest #Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service forecast (link: https://bit.ly/2L5VHA8) bit.ly/2L5VHA8 @polarprediction @steverarnold @SanGasso @hjethva05 @Pierre_Markuse @blkahn @avoiland ”
https://twitter.com/m_parrington/status/996680664660480001
Image below.
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On a positive note, increased levels of CO has only an indirect impact on warming.
https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch2s2-10-3-2.html
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On a positive note, increased levels of CO has only an indirect impact on warming.
https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch2s2-10-3-2.html
Good; but where there is CO from wildfires, there is likely also soot, which is not good for Arctic snow and ice.
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https://inhabitat.com/wildfires-in-siberia-are-emitting-enough-carbon-to-harm-the-entire-planet/
Siberian Fire Season has already started
This spring, dry, warm conditions in Siberia have readied the area for wildfires, according to Earther — and in May, the fires have picked up in a big way. Local farmers sometimes light fires in Siberia to replenish soil nutrients or clear land, but winds can cause the fires to blaze out of control.
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California
Evacuations Remain as More Than 400 Firefighters Continue to Fight Aliso Fire
A brush fire in Laguna Beach and Aliso Viejo continued to burn into the morning hours on Sunday as flames scorched hundreds of acres.
The wind-driven Aliso Fire was 10 percent contained and at 150 acres as of around 9:25 a.m. Sunday, according to the Orange County Fire Authority.
Mandatory evacuation orders were lifted for Aliso Viejo around 9 p.m. Saturday, but around 300 homes and 600 residents remained evacuated as of around 10:20 a.m. Sunday, including residents in the Top of the World neighborhood of Laguna Beach, the Laguna Beach Police Department said. ...
https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Evacuations-as-Fire-Breaks-Out-in-Laguna-Beach-484392461.html
Article and video at the link.
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U.S.: New Mexico
“Pic: The #UteParkFire burns in the mountains east of Eagles Nest late Sat night. About 32,000 acres were burning as of this morning w/no containment. Rain is expected today, which may slow growth. But so is high wind & lightning, dangers. #nmfire #nmfireinfo #nmdrought #nmwx ”
https://twitter.com/robbrow/status/1003359970685906944
Image below.
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Wildfires Erupt in the Southwest U.S.
https://weatheroptics.net/wildfires-erupt-in-the-southwest/
Los Angeles, California, June 3: “As of noon, Acton has already soared to 98 degrees with RH of 8%. Elevated fire weather concerns across interior sections today due to hot and dry conditions coupled with gusty onshore winds. #LAWeather #cawx #LAheat #Socal”
https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/1003351609584300032
"The combination of deepening #drought and the carryover of fine fuels from 2017 is expected to lead to a continuance of Above Normal Significant Large Fire Potential across western portions of the Four Corners Region and Southern #California during June" (link: http://bit.ly/2mu6g6I )
https://twitter.com/EdJoyce/status/1003357194388045825
Image below.
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Western U.S.
Hot, dry conditions help fuel fast-moving wildfires in the West
Hot and dry conditions are helping fuel fast-moving wildfires blazing throughout the West.
As of Wednesday afternoon there were 43 large fires burning in 12 states throughout the country: Alaska, Washington, California, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas and Florida.
In Utah and Colorado, winds could reach 40 mph Wednesday afternoon and evening, and coupled with the dry fuel and low humidity, the danger for fire is heightened.
The dangerous fires have prompted some evacuations from southern California to Colorado.
In Colorado, massive wildfires displaced thousands of people and destroyed tens of thousands of acres, while in Beverly Hills some residents were forced to flee their homes Tuesday as flames erupted and threatened million dollar mansions. ...
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wildfires-explode-southwest-severe-weather-northeast/story?id=55856760
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June 26.
Drought-stricken West braces as wildfire season flares up
In California, officials said unusually hot weather, high winds and highly flammable vegetation turned brittle by drought helped fuel the fires that began over the weekend.
Thousands fled their homes as major wildfires encroached on a charred area of Northern California still recovering from severe blazes in recent years, sparking concern the state may be in for another destructive series of wildfires this summer.
Severe drought has already forced officials in several western states to close national parks as precautions against wildfires and issue warnings throughout the region to prepare for the worst.
In California, officials said unusually hot weather, high winds and highly flammable vegetation turned brittle by drought helped fuel the fires that began over the weekend, the same conditions that led to the state’s deadliest and most destructive fire year in 2017.
Gov. Jerry Brown on Monday declared a state of emergency in Lake County, where the biggest fire was raging about 120 miles (190 kilometers) north of San Francisco, a rural region particularly hard-hit by fires in recent years. The declaration will enable officials to receive more state resources to fight the fire and for recovery.
Jim Steele, an elected supervisor, said the county is impoverished and its fire-fighting equipment antiquated. He also said the county has just a few roads into and out of the region, which can hinder response time. Steele said the area has also been susceptible to fire for many decades because dense brush and trees in the sparsely populated area, but the severity of the latest blazes is unexpected.
“What’s happened with the more warming climate is we get low humidity and higher winds and then when we get a fire that’s worse than it’s been in those 50 years,” Steele said.
The fire that broke out Saturday evening has forced 3,000 residents from their homes and destroyed at least 22 buildings. It is the latest devastating blaze to rip through the isolated and impoverished county of just 65,000 people in the last few years.
In 2015, a series of fires destroyed 2,000 buildings and killed four people.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/26/drought-stricken-west-braces-as-wildfire-season-flares-up.html
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Wild fire in my neck of the woods destroyed 36 homes and damaged several more a couple days ago in the coastal fishing village of Eastpoint: Fast-moving wildfire damages homes in North Florida (https://www.news4jax.com/news/florida/fast-moving-wildfire-damages-homes-in-florida)
Eastpoint is ... near the historic town of Apalachicola and the beach area at St. George Island. The fire broke around late Sunday afternoon …
The cause of the fire is still under investigation. Two often mentioned possibilities are lightning and a prescribed/controlled burn (https://www.fws.gov/fire/pftc/about.shtml).
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No. This isn't Siberia or even California. This is Saddleworth Moor about six miles from the Eastern edge of Manchester in NW England and renowned for its rain.
We've had no significant rain for two months now and there's no change on the horizon - static highs and no jet stream to move things on. 28C here today about 15 miles from the fire.
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I'm over in the Calder Valley and our Moors are just as dry as over the hill on Saddleworth Moor. I worry that there will be some folk that think it a good idea to copycat that fire over here...... but then one discarded fag end or bottle could do that all on its own!
The problem is now that the peat itself is burning so even when they think it's out it's still smouldering deep down. With the breeze we have here currently I do not see them regaining control any time soon?
On the Met Office visible sat. image you can see the plume from the centre of the UK out to the west coast south of the River Ribble.
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I took a look at that earlier on nullschool (https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/06/28/0600Z/chem/surface/level/overlay=cosc/orthographic=-3.73,53.26,3000/loc=56.864,80.703)
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Further to the Limerock Fire (Eastpoint, FL) (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1368.msg160879.html#msg160879):
Florida Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam this morning announced that Wildlands Service, Inc. was responsible for the fire. The company was conducting a [prescribed/controlled] burn (https://www.fws.gov/fire/pftc/about.shtml) at the time on land managed by the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission [FWC].
...
The wildfire burned through a heavily wooded residential area on the edge of Tate's Hell State Park (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tate%27s_Hell_State_Forest). Residents of Ridge Road, Wilderness Road and Buck Road managed to evacuate just minutes before the fire consumed their homes.
FWC said in a morning news release that a private vendor began the burn a week before the wildfire started in the Apalachicola River Wildlife and Environmental Area. The FWC said the site of the burn was separated from the Eastpoint neighborhood by 580 acres of private land.
“While the cause of the wildfire is still unknown and is being investigated by the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, the FWC Inspector General is also investigating that all protocols and operations at FWC’s prescribed fire program were followed and that the agency’s program provides the safest operation,” FWC said in a news release.
It is curious that we both know who was responsible for the fire and the cause is still unknown!
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If the weather doesn't change this could be a really bad year for the siberian forests.
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If the weather doesn't change this could be a really bad year for the siberian forests.
I was about to post the same satellite image!
The fires are now beginning to truly rage. The visible comparison from yesterday to today shows the smaller breakouts now growing into conflagrations. The anomalies the past few weeks should continue so these are going to keep growing for the foreseeable future.
The only plus side should be nice sunsets for many...?
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The thawing of the permafrost , apart from allowing decay to start up again, allows any water to drain out leaving rich peat to dry. This is a huge mass of material that can burn.
If it burns the surface is left blackened so albedo plummets and more permafrost melts ( at the same temp) and water drains allowing more material to dry....
This ain't going away any time soon methinks?
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Western US.
The West is burning, and it’s barely July
The heat is breaking temperature records coast-to-coast, drought covers half of the country, and — sure enough — wildfires are already enveloping the West. More than 30 large fires are burning in 12 states right now.
In Utah, dozens of homes have been destroyed and hundreds more are threatened from a largely out-of-control blaze in the eastern part of the state. In Colorado, some of the largest fires in state history have already drawn comparisons to the nightmare fire seasons of 1988 and 2002.
And then there’s California, where the “County fire” began on Saturday near Sacramento and quickly spread out of control, threatening hundreds of homes and growing at a rate of 1,000 football fields an hour. It’s the latest megafire in a state still recovering from the most damaging wildfire season in history.
Wildfires across California have burned more than twice the five-year average so far this year, as of July 1. The County fire alone has burned 70,000 acres — twice the size of San Francisco and more than every other fire in the state this year combined. Over the weekend, smoke and ash from the fire drifted over the Bay Area, reminding residents of last year’s horrific blazes and partially blocking out the sun. ...
https://grist.org/article/the-west-is-burning-and-its-barely-july/
Image: latest Drought Monitor
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“This is now the third largest wildfire in Colorado history. More than 250 homes have been lost so far.
#SpringCreekFire”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1014916124352352257
“7/5 Thursday #SpringFire #SpringCreekFire Colorado 103,357 acres per overnight infrared analysis by fire staff. Open online map: https://t.co/mkaM9Y8Iwt Want map legend? Need help? Open the map then click "Map tips" upper left corner. #GeoSpatial”
https://twitter.com/mappingsupport/status/1014848425022533632
Image below.
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“It's not every day that you see a tornado skipping through a wild fire. No, this isn't a firewhirl, it is a legit tornado produced by a thunderstorm that moved across the Weston Pass Fire near Fairplay. Wow...#cowx #cofire Courtesy Leeland Odie”
https://twitter.com/brianbledsoe/status/1014968254941429760
Image below.
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Some of the smoke from the wildfires ends up in the CAB.
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The Siberian smoke plume is now covering much of NW North America. If the GFS and other models are correct the first populated areas it will impact will be southern Canada and the US Northeast. By D3-4 the GFS shows the airmass centered over the Megalopolis.
Very curious to see how much smoke makes it through. It should also be noted that this will be coincidental with a cyclone turning up the frontside of the system delivering the smoke.
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More impressive view --
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/FD/GEOCOLOR/20181892330_GOES16-ABI-FD-GEOCOLOR-1808x1808.jpg
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24 hours later about 48 hours out from the NE. How crazy it is still mostly intact!
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New evacuations ordered as fire raging near Yosemite National Park grows to 12,525 acres
A wildfire burning outside Yosemite National Park continued its push south toward nearby rural communities as hundreds of firefighters flooded into the area Tuesday.
Amid high temperatures, low humidity and light winds, the Ferguson fire has scorched 12,525 acres south of Highway 140 west of the park and was 5% contained, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection said.
The blaze has killed one firefighter and is threatening more than 100 homes as it marches southeast along a fork of the Merced River toward Jerseydale, Mariposa Pines and Yosemite West, Cal Fire said. ...
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-ferguson-fire-spread-20180717-story.html
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”The Copernicus Earth observation programme, which gives daily updates of fires in Europe, shows more than 60 fires burning across Sweden, with sites also ablaze in Norway, Finland and Russia, including in the Arctic Circle.”
Wildfires rage in Arctic Circle as Sweden calls for help
Sweden worst hit as hot, dry summer sparks unusual number of fires, with at least 11 in the far north
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/18/sweden-calls-for-help-as-arctic-circle-hit-by-wildfires
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Detail of;
1. Fires Sweden
2. Fires Siberia
3. Fires Canada
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Many fires are happening in Holland as well but we have choppers in the air and adequate response by firefighters they don't get out of hand.
One advantage of being small i guess.
Siberian times reporting that according to environmentalists, fires are being ignored/downplayed by Russian government.
We can see them for months already on satellite of course but the locals there probably don't watch Worldview....
http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/concern-over-raging-wildfires-as-smoke-from-siberia-crosses-alaska-and-canada-reaching-new-england/
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The Siberian smoke plume is now covering much of NW North America. If the GFS and other models are correct the first populated areas it will impact will be southern Canada and the US Northeast. By D3-4 the GFS shows the airmass centered over the Megalopolis.
Very curious to see how much smoke makes it through. It should also be noted that this will be coincidental with a cyclone turning up the frontside of the system delivering the smoke.
NASAs take:
According to Hiren Jethva, an atmospheric scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Russia's summer fires have been more intense this year than in the past. Satellite data shows that Central Russia saw 7,200 fires during the first half of July, about four times as many fires as detected during the same period between 2013 and 2017.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/92439/from-russia-with-aerosols
needs a click
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Sweden's wildfires: how this year compares with the last decade. Spot the anomaly?
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It was mentioned on the Austrian radio news yesterday, so it must be really bad.
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It sure is.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/fyra-brander-for-stora-for-att-slacka (https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/fyra-brander-for-stora-for-att-slacka)
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/viktigt-meddelande-till-allmanheten-om-skogsbrander (https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/viktigt-meddelande-till-allmanheten-om-skogsbrander)
Edit; adding temperature and precipitation ensembles for Stockholm. This is not over.
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Has anyone quantified/estimated the amount of heat generated by a given amount of surface area during a wildfire event?Hint-my Vermont Castings wood stove gives off 50,000 btu's of heat per hour while in use.
50 K btu per hour for about the equivalent of a 2 sq. ft. campfire.Or another hint-a 1500 watt electric heater gives off 5000 btu's of heat per hr.How many sq ft. of sunlight in a day would that equal?
Of course peat,tundra,and forests give off varying amounts of heat when burning.Sunlight is measured in watts per meter sq. hitting the land surface.I think that number could be around 1360 watts per m sq/day.
So if a fire is burning in a forest that sq meter of surface is generating about 50,000 btu x5
(10.5 sq ft per meter)=250,000+/- btu per sq m per hour x4150( one acre divided by 10.5)= slightly over one billion btu per hour per acre!Vs less than 21 million btu a day of sunlight falling in a day.
Houston are you still there?And we have another problem- thousands of acres of burning Siberian peat exhausting in sweltering plumes into the Arctic Circle each day.That heat also is part of a problem that nobody considers.The co2 and clouds keep it in the atmosphere.It is dynamically drawn to one of the coldest parts of the planet and is melting ice as I type.Large areas along the Siberian Coast are already blue water and shallow.The stage is set and we have many warm/hot days in the Arctic before this year's melt stops in the fall!
One more point, it will not take a complete melt of the Arctic Ice Cap to generate a calamity
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At least 20 dead in Greece as wildfires rage out of control
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/23/greeks-urged-to-leave-homes-as-wildfires-spread-near-athens
Authorities urged people to abandon their homes on Monday after high winds whipped up the worst fires for more than a decade in two areas either side of the capital, destroying properties and closing the the main motorway west to Corinth.
The majority of the victims died in their homes or their cars in Mati, a holiday resort 29km (18 miles) north-east of Athens that was devastated by a fast-moving blaze that started at around 5pm local time, government spokesman Dimitris Tzanakopoulos said early on Tuesday.
He said 88 adults and 16 children were injured, 11 of them seriously. One of the youngest victims was thought to be a six-month-old baby who died of smoke inhalation.
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At least 20 dead in Greece as wildfires rage out of control
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/23/greeks-urged-to-leave-homes-as-wildfires-spread-near-athens
Authorities urged people to abandon their homes on Monday after high winds whipped up the worst fires for more than a decade in two areas either side of the capital, destroying properties and closing the the main motorway west to Corinth.
The majority of the victims died in their homes or their cars in Mati, a holiday resort 29km (18 miles) north-east of Athens that was devastated by a fast-moving blaze that started at around 5pm local time, government spokesman Dimitris Tzanakopoulos said early on Tuesday.
He said 88 adults and 16 children were injured, 11 of them seriously. One of the youngest victims was thought to be a six-month-old baby who died of smoke inhalation.
This image is perhaps the worst-case scenario -- a gridlocked highway and flames bearing down. What do you do? You can only run. But most people wouldn't want to lose their cars and would probably stay in their vehicles (prioritizing property over life is how we've come to this predicament in the first place).
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c0af35b1487a13ed6fd13cb51db5616339cfb6f/0_0_3696_2456/master/3696.jpg?w=620&q=20&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&dpr=2&s=8bebc33974bfe9063d60e051c09d7d8e)
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Now 60+ dead.
https://youtu.be/jK_fddb4f5Y
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Authorities urged people to abandon their homes on Monday after high winds whipped up the worst fires for more than a decade in two areas either side of the capital, destroying properties and closing the the main motorway west to Corinth.
The majority of the victims died in their homes or their cars in Mati, a holiday resort 29km (18 miles) north-east of Athens that was devastated by a fast-moving blaze that started at around 5pm local time, government spokesman Dimitris Tzanakopoulos said early on Tuesday.
He said 88 adults and 16 children were injured, 11 of them seriously. One of the youngest victims was thought to be a six-month-old baby who died of smoke inhalation.
This image is perhaps the worst-case scenario -- a gridlocked highway and flames bearing down. What do you do? You can only run. But most people wouldn't want to lose their cars and would probably stay in their vehicles (prioritizing property over life is how we've come to this predicament in the first place).
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c0af35b1487a13ed6fd13cb51db5616339cfb6f/0_0_3696_2456/master/3696.jpg?w=620&q=20&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&dpr=2&s=8bebc33974bfe9063d60e051c09d7d8e)
great post, there is a lot in what you're saying/conveying.
back to greed as always, at least as a co-factor but mostly a key-factor, greed and envy are the root of all evil said jesus and is still right ;)
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Hundreds fled into the sea, where some drowned. Arson is suspected.
Greece wildfires: Dozens dead in Attica region
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44932366
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Yosemite Valley will close due to fire. ‘Get yourself out of here,’ official says
Visitors in Yosemite Valley were being asked to evacuate as fears grew that Highway 41 would become “a very dangerous place,” Reynolds said. Food supplies were expected to diminish due to the closure on Highway 41.
...
The air quality has been a concern for fire and park officials. The air inside Yosemite Valley has been at hazardous levels for at least one hour a day in the past few days, Reynolds said.
http://amp.fresnobee.com/news/local/article215400735.html
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Hundreds fled into the sea, where some drowned. Arson is suspected.
Greece wildfires: Dozens dead in Attica region
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44932366
That was the easy answer from a completely unprepared government reminiscent of 2007's fires in peloponese. No arson back then..
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Yosemite Valley will close due to fire. ‘Get yourself out of here,’ official says
I profited from such evacuation ca. 1992. Was one of the first mortals who got a back country permit after they re-opened. Eerie walk through white ashes and huge black columns of charred remains of trees. We met a bunch of weird Vietnam vets who didn't evacuate and just hid in the bushes. Else we were alone except for a ranger or two. Feeling like Ansel Adams, except it's summer... But just for one day and night.
And then the masses came in... Frightened Japanese tourists throwing all their food supplies to the bears (and grudgingly deciding to walk back), city girls cursing their slippers (but still asking about the way to Half Dome), and miffed extreme climbers reaching the top of Half Dome the hard way (bivouac in the wall) refusing our morning coffee and not even enjoying the magnificient view toward the Pacific...
If you are around, try to catch the glory of Yosemite undisturbed by crazy mass tourism.
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LOL we did once so years back. Our international airfare came with a free trip there from San Fran. Weren't sure about it as high summertime so we knew would be busy. The Valley Floor was packed (evidently equivalent of the population of my town) but we just walked a few hundred yards down various tracks & had the place almost to ourselves. Magic! Woodpeckers, a coyote crossed just ahead of us, deer, we will never forget that visit!
And that no one likes to walk more than a few yards from their cars!! ;)
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Hundreds fled into the sea, where some drowned. Arson is suspected.
Greece wildfires: Dozens dead in Attica region
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44932366
That was the easy answer from a completely unprepared government reminiscent of 2007's fires in peloponese. No arson back then..
Perhaps, but this time, per the article: "Fifteen fires had started simultaneously on three different fronts in Athens," said government spokesman Dimitris Tzanakopoulos.
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Hundreds fled into the sea, where some drowned. Arson is suspected.
Greece wildfires: Dozens dead in Attica region
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44932366
That was the easy answer from a completely unprepared government reminiscent of 2007's fires in peloponese. No arson back then..
Perhaps, but this time, per the article: "Fifteen fires had started simultaneously on three different fronts in Athens," said government spokesman Dimitris Tzanakopoulos.
Climate as dry as South California, strong winds and heat, non existent fire potential alert system, irresponsible human behavior ( cigarette butts thrown outside, barbeque with strong winds etc etc) weather or accident are the first culrprits. I would believe a spoken of a Greek government if they catch somebody. I grew up in Athens, I have the experience of 26 years of annual fire problem throughout Greece. Arson has been used to clear land for development but it has also been the goto excuse to shift blame away from the negligence and the lack of plan and preparedness..the dead deserve better than that...
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Tonight the Carr fire jumped the sacramento river and is moving rapidly into west Redding (pop 90,000) evacuation routes are gridlocked and fire effect weather and 90 degree temps are creating extremely erratic and dangerous conditions.
http://amp.sacbee.com/news/state/california/fires/article215624595.html?__twitter_impression=true
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Wow, this looks really bad. Unconfirmed reports part of Redding CA has been destroyed. Midnight there currently so hard to know what is going down. See live link below.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYWlyMIF6N0
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More on th Redding fire, and on the Yosemite Park fire.
Firefighters in California are battling strong winds and daytime highs of 100-110°F (38-43°C).
Raging NorCal wildfire turns deadly, forces "mass evacuations"
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/carr-fire-raging-wildfire-northern-california-turns-deadly-reaches-redding-forces-mass-evacuations/
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Quoth Very Serious MSNBC Weatherman: Imagine those firefighters with their gear working at 110°. That is insane...
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The amount of water these firefighters must drink to keep their body temperatures in operating range must be ridiculous.
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Tonight the Carr fire jumped the sacramento river and is moving rapidly into west Redding (pop 90,000) evacuation routes are gridlocked and fire effect weather and 90 degree temps are creating extremely erratic and dangerous conditions.
http://amp.sacbee.com/news/state/california/fires/article215624595.html?__twitter_impression=true
“This fire is extremely dangerous and moving with no regard to what’s in its path.”
How very rude of it.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vN5tjze2GZQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLKr-fJZpMc
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Multiple California fires.
“Fire fighting aircraft requests across California today are going unfilled, no state or Federal fixed wing available anywhere. #CAfire"
https://mobile.twitter.com/EPN473/status/1022968205608804352
CA Fire Scanner on Twitter: "Mendocino Co has problems - all aircraft being diverted off the #RanchFire onto the #RiverFire, unspecified why - likely due to life/structure threat. Still unable to fill on any additional air tankers."
https://mobile.twitter.com/CAFireScanner/status/1022972210192023553
ABC10 on Twitter: "No, this is not a tornado. The Carr Fire in Shasta County created this rotation updraft. #CarrFire #California”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ABC10/status/1022862397780852739
Image below, video clip at the link.
Damon Arthur on Twitter: "One of three high voltage transmission towers melted and blown over by the #CarrFire west of Redding. https://t.co/rZakIaFcDH "
https://mobile.twitter.com/damonarthur_RS/status/1022887834590445568
Image below.
Edit:
CA Fire Scanner on Twitter: "#CarrFire - Latest figures reported in the media are ~45000 acres, 125 structures destroyed, 38000 people evacuated, 2 firefighters killed. Containment in the low single figures. High temps & winds continue tonight. #Redding"
https://mobile.twitter.com/CAFireScanner/status/1022990609777418240
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The Greece wildfires are the second most deadly fires this century - after the catastrophes in Australia in 2009.
What about the wildfires in Portugal in 2017?
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I once drove over the Croatian highway, and there were fires ahead. There were cops on the road who were signalling us to continue driving. Those flames weren't very close, but we could feel the heat in the car. In hindsight, it was pretty scary.
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The Greece wildfires are the second most deadly fires this century - after the catastrophes in Australia in 2009.
What about the wildfires in Portugal in 2017?
Yeah. It had aspects of Australia - Eucalypt fire blasts, surviving in the basement, and all... Should be in the same box as Australia 2009.
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The Greece wildfires are the second most deadly fires this century - after the catastrophes in Australia in 2009.
What about the wildfires in Portugal in 2017?
Portugal 2017 wildfire deaths: 66
Greece 2018 wildfire deaths: 87 confirmed so far, more sadly expected.
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Deadly Redding, California blaze nearly doubles in size overnight
The Carr Fire that burned into Redding grew to 80,906 acres — around 125 square miles — and was only 5 percent contained as of Saturday morning, according to Cal Fire. On Friday, the fire was 48,312 acres.
The number of fire personnel battling the blaze also nearly doubled by Saturday, rising from 1,700 to 3,410.
“You can’t make assumptions of what the fire is going to want to do. This is a different era,” Cal Fire Division Chief Chris Anthony said Saturday. ...
https://www.sfgate.com/california-wildfires/amp/Deadly-Redding-blaze-nearly-doubles-in-size-13113040.php
Edit:
Brian L Kahn on Twitter: "Unreal aerial view of the vortex driven by super heated air rising upwards in the middle of the #CarrFire https://t.co/FxWuflulpp"
https://mobile.twitter.com/blkahn/status/1023268342688370688
Raw video at the link.
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Dr. Daniel Swain on Twitter: "What the heck is going on with California wildfire situation? Vegetation moisture in many areas now at/near record low levels. Why? Persistently hotter than avg. temperatures, plus dry winter. Map via NW Clim. Toolbox: https://t.co/cbOMwqHBiy #CAwx #CAfire #CarrFire #RiverFire ..."
https://mobile.twitter.com/Weather_West/status/1023709829305487360
Image below.
“... This is the view from my home town in Lakeport, CA. We have fires approaching from two sides. We’ve evacuated and now just wait. #MendocinoComplexFire #riverfire”
https://mobile.twitter.com/jamenta/status/1023705995892015104
Image below.
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“... This is the view from my home town in Lakeport, CA. We have fires approaching from two sides. We’ve evacuated and now just wait. #MendocinoComplexFire #riverfire”
https://mobile.twitter.com/jamenta/status/1023705995892015104
Image below.
The Mendocino Complex is two fires. The River Fire is currently at 21,000 acres and threatening Lakeport and Kelseyville. The Ranch Fire is currently at 35,000 acres and threatening Upper Lake. Over 10,000 people evacuated. Fire crews are stretched really thin and there isn't enough air support across the state.
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Six of California's Most Destructive Wildfires Have Struck in the Past 10 Months
The Carr Fire near Redding has joined five other large fires since Oct. 2017 on the state's 20 most destructive wildfires list. Through 7 a.m. PDT July 30, the Carr Fire had destroyed 966 structures and killed six people, ranking as the ninth most destructive wildfire.
https://weather.com/news/news/2018-07-30-california-20-most-destructive-wildfires-carr-fire
Data image below.
Justin Benedetti on Twitter: "I’m concerned for those battling fires out in CA; the weather forecast is bleak, w/ no rain modeled for N. central CA through the next 16 days. I *hope* significant advances can be made b/w Fri-Mon when higher dews advect off the pacific, & before the ridge rebuilds. #CarrFire”
https://mobile.twitter.com/qustneverything/status/1024019388024934400
Image below.
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That bit about modeled precipitation is funny. We won't have any meaningful rainfall until October, at the earliest.
The Tubbs fire was horrific and the chart is somewhat misleading since the Tubbs, Atlas and Nuns (and Pocket fire, not making the list) were all at the same time in essentially the same area. It was not a fun couple of weeks.
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"Google’s 2018 Statewide Fire Map for California lists all the active fires in the state for which California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) is responding. The continuously updated map is a good way for people not in the midst of the smoke to get a better understanding of the challenges currently facing the Golden State."
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1HacmM5E2ueL-FT2c6QMVzoAmE5M19GAf&ll=40.66054230000002%2C-122.62579800000009&z=8
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How about some good news?
http://www.thejournal.ie/fires-portugal-4156266-Jul2018/
Whatever the Portugese are doing they are doing it right it seems.
They have no problems this year!
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Apocalypse 4 Real (http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/) posted a summary ten days ago: A World of Fire and Smoke - A July 20 2018 Snapshot (http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/2018/07/a-world-of-fire-and-smoke-july-20-2018.html) --
from Oregon wheat field wildfires to Central African charcoal making to probably un-fightable (due to years of drought) Siberian fires.
A4R's occasional posts are always well worth reading.
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Apocalypse 4 Real (http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/) posted a summary ten days ago: A World of Fire and Smoke - A July 20 2018 Snapshot (http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/2018/07/a-world-of-fire-and-smoke-july-20-2018.html) --
from Oregon wheat field wildfires to Central African charcoal making to probably un-fightable (due to years of drought) Siberian fires.
A4R's occasional posts are always well worth reading.
Was thinking the same thing Tor.
Siberian fires will probably go on and on for who knows how long?
Much like the NW Canadian ones last year in spite of international help.
I suspect ENSO conditions play a part in where it gets real bad for those two i.e:
2016-worst fires were in Siberia during el Niño.
2017- Canada bad, Siberia somewhat less during la Niña.
2018 -Both in terrible shape during ENSO neutral
Could be wrong about that...dunno.
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Re: Reply #528 above ( https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1368.msg164732.html#msg164732 ):
The Carr fire whirl on Thursday contained max wind speeds equivalent to an EF-3 tornado!
NWS Sacramento on Twitter: "The NWS & @CAL_FIRE Serious Accident Review Team (SART) are conducting a storm damage survey regarding the large fire whirl that occurred Thursday evening in Redding. Preliminary indicators placed max wind speeds achieved by the fire whirl in excess of 143 mph. #cawx #CarrFire”
https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSSacramento/status/1025125984465498112
Image below.
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Wow! That is almost unbelievable.
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https://www.cbc.ca/radio/day6/episode-400-toronto-gun-violence-arctic-wildfires-house-of-frightenstein-johnny-clegg-and-more-1.4761861/we-ain-t-seen-anything-yet-even-the-arctic-is-burning-as-wildfires-rage-around-the-world-1.4761878
'Some of the biggest fires that we’ve seen worldwide now are occurring in the subarctic,’ says science writer
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Horrific scenes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_yJwX4kgkY
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Horrific music... ::)
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Over 1,600 structures have burned to the ground. Fire started from a flat tire.
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... Fire started from a flat tire.
Which puzzled me, until I read that the flat tire caused the metal tire rim to scrape the pavement, creating sparks....
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California
Mendocino Complex fire keeps growing; 68 homes lost and more evacuations ordered
The Mendocino Complex fire continued to grow at an alarming rate, burning 254,000 acres by Sunday morning and becoming fifth largest in California history.
The massive blaze, the most serious of 17 major brush fires burning in California this weekend, was raging across wilderness on both sides of Clear Lake, forcing more evacuations in rural areas of three Northern California counties.
Officials said 15,000 structures are threatened, 68 homes have burned another 12 damaged.
The Mendocino Complex is two fires, the Ranch and River, which have burned in separate directions for days. ...
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-mendocino-fire-20180805-story.html
“The #RanchFire is now more than 207,000 acres and still just 23% contained. At this rate, in the next several days, it will become the largest wildfire in California history.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1026255326201434112
http://www.fire.ca.gov/current_incidents
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“Hard to find a photo that better tells the story of the California wildfires than a tree burning from the inside (AP/Josh Edelson) #RanchFire”
https://mobile.twitter.com/sean_breslin/status/1026448487079182336
Photo below.
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“By later today, the #MendocinoComplex will likely become the largest wildfire incident in California history.
It's still just 33% contained, with the peak of wildfire season still to come.”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1026514200955432960
“Of course this isn't just happening in California.
There are, right now, 62 large wildfires burning throughout the West.”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1026515216165687299
Map below.
Brief thread updating the larger fires:
https://twitter.com/emmaruthoneill/status/1026504054308917248
Map of Mendocino Complex fires below.
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California Fires: 14,000 firefighters now battling 16 major blazes across state
The Mendocino Complex Fire has become the largest wildfire in recorded California history
https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/08/06/california-fires-14000-firefighters-now-battling-16-major-blazes-across-state/
Heat and winds are returning. And a Yosemite resort was destroyed.
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Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus)
8/8/18, 10:07 AM
As of this morning, the #MendocinoComplex is the first wildfire incident in California state history to surpass 300,000 acres.
That's the same size as the land area of the entire city of Los Angeles.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1027194633724542976
CAL FIRE info and map at the link.
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Numb to it all now. It seems California is toast. Makes my fire-prone British Columbia look tame in comparison.
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images from space and on the ground
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Are you sure that 3th pic is not fake ? Anyway, it looks impressive. Looks like hell on earth.
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"Smoke from western wildfires has now reached every state in the contiguous United States.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1027272610936172544
GIF map at the link.
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Are you sure that 3th pic is not fake ? Anyway, it looks impressive. Looks like hell on earth.
the third picture is looking at the fire with the setting sun behind it.
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CAL FIRE (@CAL_FIRE)
8/11/18, 10:33 AM
#NelsonFire [update] near Nelson Rd and Cherry Glen Rd, Vacaville (Solano County) is now 1000 acres and 70% contained. Unified Command: CAL FIRE Sonoma-Lake-Napa Unit, Solano County Fire
https://twitter.com/cal_fire/status/1028288312954384385
40-second video from tanker plane at the link.
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Permafrost thaw from wildfires: originally posted by CDN_dude at
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1053.msg166992.html#msg166992
" ... we showed that wildfire in boreal peatlands within the discontinuous permafrost zone cause permafrost thaw through active layer deepening and talik expansion on peat plateaus, but also through accelerated thermokarst bog development along peat plateau edges."
" ... permafrost thaw at the edges of peat plateaus (i.e. thermokarst bog development) is considered irreversible given that these ecosystems undergo a complete successional shift to a new vegetation community that also includes strongly altered soil thermal and hydrological regimes."
"We estimated the total peat plateau loss to 9800 ± 4100 km^2 (95% CI), of which 2200 ± 1500 km^2 , or ~23%, was directly attributed to the increased rate of thermokarst bog development that occurs following wildfire."
Caveat: "It is not clear from this study whether the role of wildfire as a driver of thermokarst bog expansion has become relatively more important ..."
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05457-1
open access, read all about it.
sidd
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U.S.:
Eric Holthaus on Twitter: "This weekend, Glacier National Park recorded the hottest temperature in its history: 100°F [37.8°C]. Now, it's on fire and being partially evacuated. Glacier -- National -- Park”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1028998735924285440
Photos at the link.
Multiple Structures Lost to Glacier Park Wildfire - Flathead Beacon
https://flatheadbeacon.com/2018/08/13/multiple-structures-lost-glacier-park-wildfire/
Glacier National Park is on fire — and yes, warming is making things worse | Grist
https://grist.org/article/glacier-national-park-is-on-fire-and-yes-warming-is-making-things-worse/
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Yeah we need a new name for Glacier national park. Also for the Sierra Nevada. Death valley will probably be fine.
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Yeah we need a new name for Glacier national park. Also for the Sierra Nevada. Death valley will probably be fine.
“In 1850, there were 150 glaciers in the area now known as Glacier National Park. Today there are 26. They’ve been there for 7,000 years — but in just a few decades, the glaciers of Glacier National Park will almost surely be gone. By then the park will need a new name. Glacier Memorial Park doesn’t have the same ring to it.”
:'(
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Heavy smoke from wildfires drifts across northwest U.S.
NWS Seattle on Twitter: "Satellite imagery on a clear day (July 14) compared to a smoke-filled day (Aug 13) across the state. #WAwx”
https://mobile.twitter.com/nwsseattle/status/1029414498413604864
Image below; GIF at the link.
Bonnie Norman on Twitter: "Smoke from Canada & Montana has arrived here at the Gorge. Air quality is so bad that everyone is told to stay inside, windows closed. If you don't think #ClimateChange is real, please unfollow. And get off my feed.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/bonnienorman/status/1029470537590796288
Image below. Tesla Model X “Biohazard” air filter control pic at the link.
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Smoke from California and Canada wildfires now extends all the way to Europe.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2237.msg167620.html#msg167620
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Couple suspected of accidentally starting the Carr Fire — which was fueled by hot & dry conditions — receives outpouring of support
Letters Pour In Supporting Couple Whose Trailer May Have Sparked Carr Fire
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/letters-support-carr-fire-couple_us_5b7422e5e4b0182d49af4491
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...
It is curious that we both know who was responsible for the fire and the cause is still unknown!
It's official: the prescribed burn in the East Point, Florida area caused the devastating fire in East Point. The intentional fire smoldered for 'several days' before strong winds re-ignited it, to disastrous effect.
Didn't Smokey the Bear teach us to leave fires out cold?
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Crazy fire year here (again) in BC. The smoke is insufferable as well. Here's a pic from the bridge across Lake Okanagan, in my neck of the woods. On a normal clear day vs. yesterday. (today looks even worse, from my window)
(https://i.redd.it/97bws4ro8xg11.jpg)
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Wildfire moves closer to Glacier National Park's scenic road
MISSOULA, Mont. (AP) — A wildfire in Montana's Glacier National Park is forcing more evacuations and has burned within a half-mile of the scenic Going-to-the-Sun Road. ...
https://apnews.com/868e5119be484b7aaaf58f75997bf53f
A father and son made a mad dash "through hell" in the middle of a blazing forest fire while driving down a winding mountain road in Glacier National Park in Montana -- and have it all caught on a harrowing video.
The pair emerged with their lives, but not the car -- they ended up abandoning it to the flames
Video shows father, son driving through raging forest fire
https://abcnews.go.com/US/video-shows-father-son-driving-forest-fire-escape/story?id=57267808
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8/20/18, 9:51 PM
The #MendocinoComplex is now the first 400,000+ acre [162,900+ hectares] wildfire incident in California history.
A few days ago, it became the first 300,000+ acre wildfire incident in California history.
There's simply never been a fire like this as long as we've been keeping track.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1031720413007622144
More info at the link.
8/20/18, 10:04 PM
First Yosemite, then Glacier, now Olympic National Forest -- a wildfire is burning in a rainforest right now -- one of the rainiest places in the continental United States.
It is expected to burn until the wintertime rains arrive.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1031723622459756546
More info at the link.
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Wildfires are another example of climate change that seems to affect “other areas, not where I live” — until it hits home.
Seattle’s air quality is as bad as smoking 7 cigarettes. Blame wildfires.
Ash and smoke are choking Seattle’s air for the second week in a row, as wildfires smolder in the Cascades and in British Columbia.
As of Tuesday morning, the Air Quality Index in Seattle was at 181, a rating classified as “unhealthy.” In parts of the city, the index rose as high as 220, which is “very unhealthy.” To put it in perspective, an AQI of 150 is roughly equal to smoking seven cigarettes in a day. That means residents should avoid being outside and exerting themselves, particularly people with heart and lung problems, the elderly, and children.
On August 15, many noted that air quality in Seattle was worse than in Beijing, one of the world’s most notoriously polluted cities.
The flames from some of the massive wildfires that have raged from Alaska to New Mexico have destroyed homes and taken lives, but the smoke and ash in the air are one of the most insidious threats to health. Since nearly 2 million acres have burned in the United States this year from 109 fires in 12 states ranging from Alaska to New Mexico, many regions are affected.
Wildfires have ignited in the Pacific Northwest before, but usually Seattle’s weather quenches flames and clears smoke pretty quickly.
That the region has remained so hot and dry this year, allowing smoke to linger, is highly unusual, Andrew Wineke, a spokesperson for the state Ecology Department’s air quality program, told Q13 Fox. But it also happened last year.
“The trend is clear. You see the number of forest fires increasing, and so there’s going to be wildfires,” Wineke said. “There’s going to be smoke. It’s going to be somewhere.” ...
https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/energy-and-environment/2018/8/21/17761908/seattle-air-quality-haze-smoke-wildfire-health
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Nearly 600 Fires Rage Across B.C. as Alberta Researcher Points to Climate Connection
With nearly 600 fires raging across British Columbia, communities are on evacuation alert, many are choking on smoke, and especially northern ones are saying the province’s recently-announced state of emergency comes very late in the day.
Since the Horgan government declared a province-wide state of emergency last week, nearly 40 new blazes have erupted, “mostly sparked by lightning,” CBC reports.
Another CBC update notes that many B.C. communities are on evacuation alert, including the East Kootenays town of Kimberley, population 4,500. “Officials are also watching the Shovel Lake fire, a blaze seven times the size of the city of Vancouver, which has prompted evacuation orders or alerts from Fraser Lake all the way north to Fort St. James in north-central B.C.” ...
http://www.theenergymix.com/2018/08/19/nearly-600-fires-rage-across-b-c-as-alberta-researcher-points-to-climate-connection/
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Canada:
2018 now worst fire season on record as B.C. extends state of emergency
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/state-emergency-bc-wildfires-1.4803546
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Big rigs abandoned as wildfire scorches California freeway
https://apnews.com/c6df1fe03b91418b881f48a490863c49
Truckers abandoned big-rigs and motorists screamed in fear as they came dangerously close to an explosive wildfire that shut down about 45 miles of a major California interstate near the Oregon border that authorities were desperately trying to reopen.
In a video, a passenger in a vehicle screams: “Oh my God, I want to go!” as nearby trees burst into flames.
“I can’t breathe,” the woman says, sobbing. “Please, guys, come put it out.”
Wildfire near Redding nearly triples in size, triggers evacuations
https://abc7news.com/wildfire-near-redding-nearly-triples-in-size-triggers-closure-of-i-5/4162362/
Interstate 5 remains closed in Shasta County because of a fast-moving wildfire. The Delta Fire is burning about ten miles north of Redding. So far, the fire has grown to 23 square miles and has zero percent containment. It was 8 square miles on Wednesday.
Caltrans says there are no plans to reopen I-5 north of Redding on Thursday night and will re-evaluate on Friday morning.
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Probably not wildfires. But it's pretty clear that the rainforest are burning.
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A grass fire near a California natural gas pipeline has forced 4,000 to evacuate
...the company was purging the pipeline of natural gas and would inject it with nitrogen to extinguish the fire in the vault.
There is presently not a risk of an explosion, officials said, but residents were evacuated for their safety.
"Until that fire is extinguished, we're not comfortable that truly there is no chance that there could be a catastrophic failure" of the pipe, Carey said. "So in the abundance of caution four our citizens and our personnel, we've chosen to keep the evacuation order in effect until that is truly mitigated."
https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/18/us/california-bay-point-grass-fire-evacuation/index.html
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Very dry and warmer-than-average conditions likely to persist across California (and much of the West Coast) for the next 10+ days. Wildfire risk will be elevated in CA, especially during occasional periods of strong offshore wind (#SantaAna/#DiabloWind). #CAwx #ORwx #CAfire pic.twitter.com/z8bJFT4Rtd
https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/1060312024129798146
Maps at the link.
Rob Elvington (@RobElvington)
11/7/18, 8:11 PM
Don't even look at the grasses tomorrow. I can't recall seeing this much extreme on the Fire Danger Map. #CAfire #CAwx
https://twitter.com/robelvington/status/1060339020063010816
Image below.
Daniel Swain (@Weather_West)
11/8/18, 11:36 AM
Unfortunately, looks like yet another dangerous, extremely fast-moving California fire in wildland/urban interface amidst record-dry vegetation conditions. This time, it's #CampFire east of #Chico and already burning structures in #Paradise. Strong winds blowing. #CAwx #CAfire
https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/1060571894963830784
YubaNet Fire News (@YubaNetFire)
11/8/18, 11:07 AM
Mandatory evacuation for the entire Town of Paradise. Leave now! #CampFire bit.ly/2D8aU1Y pic.twitter.com/dDZWSo0fGc
image below.
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Daniel Swain (@Weather_West)
11/8/18, 12:17 PM
True emergency situation in #Paradise now due to #CampFire. Similar urgency to situation during #CarrFire near Redding earlier this summer. Folks trying to leave are trapped and stuck on roads with fire in all directions. Sobering, yet again. #CAwx #CAfire twitter.com/engineco16/sta…
https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/1060582063391223808
Dave Toussaint (@engineco16)
11/8/18, 12:12 PM
#CampFire black out conditions, vehicles can't move. Many trapped. Fire is at Pentz Rd, Skyway, Forest Glen, If you're anywhere in front of the fire GET OUT NOW before it's too late!
Daniel Swain (@Weather_West)
11/8/18, 12:42 PM
This is purportedly a photo from 10 minutes ago at 9:30am local time in #Paradise, CA. Gridlocked traffic in evacuation zone amid total blackout conditions under #CampFire smoke plume. Wow. #CAwx #CAfire twitter.com/glenncanon/sta…
https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/1060588493762523136
Glennui (@glenncanon)
11/8/18, 12:38 PM
0930
Paradise,CA
#CampFire pic.twitter.com/frGzr1Xsjl
Neil Lareau (@nplareau)
11/8/18, 1:15 PM
Not looking good for #Paradise. Images show (1) location of town/structures, (2) location of radar derived fire perimeter showing head fire moving into town. #Campfire #CAwx #CAfire pic.twitter.com/1r5VR9Xq1x
https://twitter.com/nplareau/status/1060596724685623301
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Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus)
11/8/18, 1:41 PM
#CampFire is growing at an estimated rate of 80 football fields PER MINUTE.
Conditions are nearly ideal for explosive fire growth in Northern California today, at the peak of fall wildfire season. Record or near-record dry vegetation + strong and dry offshore winds. A nightmare.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1060603106566713344
J Pierson (@jdpiersoniv)
11/8/18, 1:00 PM
My mother is trapped with other drivers on Pearson Rd in Paradise with houses burning nearby. People leaving vehicles and running with children and pets.
@CALFIRE_ButteCo #CampFire
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Laura Eng (@LauraEngNews)
11/8/18, 1:06 PM
Check out the view from the Skyway. Smoke covering the sky from the #CampFire and traffic heading down both lanes. pic.twitter.com/7oHhhfawDG
https://twitter.com/lauraengnews/status/1060594450517250048
10-second vid at the link.
Scarlett (@nkaylynn)
11/8/18, 12:02 PM
I was standing outside looking at the smoke in the sky with the #campfire near my office and this fell out of the sky. pic.twitter.com/ZQME56awS7
https://twitter.com/nkaylynn/status/1060578284222599168
Image below.
NICO (@nicohenson)
11/8/18, 1:19 PM
Clark road in paradise 10:00 AM. Stay safe everyone #campfire pic.twitter.com/TOGElPBw0n
https://twitter.com/nicohenson/status/1060597787207725056
30-sec video at the link: fire just behind houses on residential street. Caution: language.
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More on the CAMP fire, Northern California
Paradise evacuated as 5,000-acre wildfire explodes in Butte County, 2 CHP officers escape on foot
Evacuations are underway as firefighters work to contain a 1,000-acre blaze in Butte County, Cal Fire’s Butte Unit said Thursday morning.
Fueled by winds of up to 50 mph, a 5,000-acre fire threatened the town of Paradise in Butte County Thursday morning, prompting the mandatory evacuation of large sections of the town of about 26,000 people.
At least two California Highway Patrol units had their vehicles disabled and surrounded by fire, having to escape on foot, according to live dispatch radio traffic available on Broadcastify.com. The dispatcher can be heard sending fire crews to assist the officers at about 9:45 a.m.
The fire and evacuations led to gridlock traffic on Skyway in Paradise, with dispatch radio traffic indicating multiple civilians had also abandoned their vehicles. Several fire officials reported flames were about 15 yards from major roadways about 9:45 a.m.
...
Butte is one of eight counties in which Pacific Gas and Electric Co. has announced a potential planned power shutoff event that could begin Thursday.
PG&E announced the possible shutoff earlier this week in light of forecasts for high winds and dry conditions creating high fire risk in a large portion of Northern California. National Weather Service issued a Red Flag Warning, in place Wednesday night through the end of the week.
http://amp.sacbee.com/news/state/california/fires/article221349345.html
Edit:
NWS Bay Area on Twitter: "1-minute satellite imagery from GOES-East of #CampFire smoke plume from 10:32 to 10:51 am PST. Note the southwestward progression of the plume as a result of the northeast winds aloft. #CAwx #RedFlagWarning https://t.co/WHvo9kyyBX"
https://twitter.com/NWSBayArea/status/1060606517228003330
GIF at the link shows startlingly fast advancement of the smoke plume.
Dave Toussaint (@engineco16)
11/8/18, 2:17 PM
#CampFire dozers given permission to move cars off the roadway if they're blocking it.
https://twitter.com/engineco16/status/1060612173188100096
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A post 10 minutes ago said they were trying to get a bus in to evacuate 70 people (Around 1 pm PST)
Imagine being stuck in traffic, flames leaping through your hometown, and a firefighter knocks on your car window says "get out, we have to go right now" and pulls you into a Walgreens as your best hope of surviving
https://mobile.twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1060620464362536961?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1060620464362536961&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpublish.twitter.com%2F%3Fquery%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Ftwitter.com%252FEricHolthaus%252Fstatus%252F1060620464362536961%26widget%3DTweet
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Daniel Swain (@Weather_West)
11/8/18, 4:21 PM
Fire now up to 17,000+ acres [6,900 hectares] (per @CALFIRE_PIO) in 5-6 hours since it was reported. That is a truly astonishing rate of spread. #CAwx #CAfire #CampFire #Paradise #Chico #Magalia twitter.com/Weather_West/s…
https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/1060643479393468416
Daniel Swain (@Weather_West)
11/8/18, 12:41 PM
Incredible #GOES16 satellite imagery of extremely dangerous, fast-moving wildfire in wildland-urban interface currently burning through #Paradise, California at an estimated 80 acres *per minute.* Strong, dry east winds. Really bad feeling about this one. #CampFire #CAwx #CAfire
https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/1060588082578124800
GIF at the link.
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Twitter has many messages from people with disabled family members in the fire area whom they have not been able to contact. Power is out in the area (NOT due to preventative utility cuts). People who were at work in nearby Chico are unable to get home to rescue family or pets....
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...
J Pierson (@jdpiersoniv)
11/8/18, 1:00 PM
My mother is trapped with other drivers on Pearson Rd in Paradise with houses burning nearby. People leaving vehicles and running with children and pets.
@CALFIRE_ButteCo #CampFire
Update:
J Pierson (@jdpiersoniv)
11/8/18, 3:17 PM
She's made it to Neal Rd. Fire still everywhere. People running down the hill are saying all of Paradise is burning. @CALFIRE_ButteCo #CampFire
https://twitter.com/jdpiersoniv/status/1060627293221998592
Paradise, California is a town of 27,000 people. Evacuations have been ordered stretching almost to Oroville.
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Other fires have broken out farther south in California, closer to the coast in Ventura County. Fire has jumped the 101 freeway. Evacuations underway.
VCFD PIO on Twitter: "#HillInc Fire is 8- 10,000 acres with mandatory evacs in Cam Springs and a hard closure of US 101 North and South. @VCFD @VCAirUnit @VCSOVentura”
https://twitter.com/VCFD_PIO/status/1060675906132500482
Alex Lamers on Twitter: "Holy moly. 8000+ acres in an hour and a half. #HillFire https://t.co/TZQtKyO8bd"
https://twitter.com/AlexJLamers/status/1060679240541261826
CA Fire Scanner on Twitter: "#HillFire (Ventura Co) - 3,500-4,000 structures threatened along w/ immediate life threat."
https://twitter.com/CAFireScanner/status/1060678382260613120
CA Fire Scanner on Twitter: "#WoolseyFire (Simi Valley) - IC reports fire is now 600 acres."
https://twitter.com/CAFireScanner/status/1060678511520698368
CA Fire Scanner on Twitter: "South Ops advising no more air tankers are available.. #HillFire #WoolseyFire"
https://twitter.com/CAFireScanner/status/1060678793373741056
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VCscanner on Twitter: "#HillFire = Newbury Park, Cam Springs, CSUCI
#WoolseyFire = Simi Valley spreading towards Oak Park."
https://twitter.com/VCscanner/status/1060678935980077056
NWS Los Angeles on Twitter: "Current conditions near #HillFire: Temp 78, Relative humidity 10%, Wind NE 15G25 MPH. #SantaAnaWinds will increase this evening and overnight. #cawx"
https://twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/1060677570197442561
Elizabeth Garrett on Twitter: "#hillfire from Mission Oaks area.”
https://twitter.com/liztomaniaaa/status/1060681153311428608
Image below.
Demi on Twitter: "Watch what happened at 0:05 in @RC_FirePhoto's broadcast: #hillfire “
https://twitter.com/DemiSann/status/1060683708607344641
Video of fast-spreading fire along Highway 101.
Dave Toussaint (@engineco16)
11/8/18, 6:45 PM
#hillfire VLAT dropping on fire in Newbury Park near Wendy
https://twitter.com/engineco16/status/1060679737981394944
Video of air tanker dropping fire retardant.
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Dave Toussaint (@engineco16)
11/8/18, 5:12 PM
#CampFire if we go off of the heat signature, know fire locations it's probably close to 40K acres. PIO just now said 17K acres, so this map may not be far off. [ Image below.]
https://twitter.com/engineco16/status/1060656301158522880
- #CampFire Clark x/Skyway units advising they're running out of water, need water tenders. They have 150 people in a building with several buildings and a gas station on fire next to it.
- #CampFire sending strike teams of engines to help, 10 engines. Clark x/Skyway.
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Thanks for following & posting this Sigmetnow.
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'Mass devastation' as fire destroys at least 1,000 structures in Northern California town of Paradise - Los Angeles Times
http://www.latimes.com/local/la-me-camp-fire-20181108-story.html
Butte County Sheriff on Twitter: "UPDATE: An Evacuation Warning has been issued for the following areas:
-Hwy 32 at Nople Avenue down to the Chico City Limits.
-Skyway from Lower Paradise down the Skyway to the Chico City Limits
This evacuation warning does not include the City of Chico #ButteSheriff #CampFire"
https://twitter.com/ButteSheriff/status/1060718816244559872
NWS Bay Area on Twitter: "Record dry airmass over our region today. The 00Z Oakland Sounding from this afternoon reported a precipitable water value of only 0.12". This is well below the record for the date of 0.24" and one of the all-time driest soundings at Oakland in more than 60 years. #CAwx
https://twitter.com/NWSBayArea/status/1060716203994464256
Data/graph at the link.
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Camp Fire: Paradise evacuated as wildfire rages, no containment
UPDATE, 6:35 p.m.
The evacuation warning up to Chico city limits has now been upgraded to an order.
People who live from Highway 32 at Nople Avenue to Chico city limits and on Skyway from lower Paradise to Chico city limits need to leave. The order doesn't include the city itself yet.
UPDATE, 6:29 p.m.
A police officer who helped residents escape the Camp Fire says the town of Paradise has been devastated, The Associated Press reported Thursday night.
Chico police officer Mark Bass said he returned to the town and found offices, large stores and restaurants leveled or burning.
Another police officer in Chico, John Barker, said many elderly people live in Paradise and some are immobile, The AP said. People posted photos on Twitter of missing seniors.
Barker said he was briefly trapped by fire while trying to get people out, with flames across the road in front of him and behind him.
https://www.redding.com/story/news/2018/11/08/evacuations-underway-paradise-camp-fire-rages/1930719002/
Continual updates on the CAMP fire in Paradise/nearing Chico at the above link.
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CAMP fire:
Firefighters worked Thursday night to prevent the Camp Fire from burning into Chico, although flames destroyed homes on the outskirts. Evacuations extended to the north (Magalia). 15,000 structures threatened. 20,000 acres.
https://www.redding.com/story/news/2018/11/08/evacuations-underway-paradise-camp-fire-rages/1930719002/
CALFIRE page:
http://www.fire.ca.gov/current_incidents/incidentdetails/Index/2277
VCFD PIO on Twitter: "#Woolseyfire update - 30,000 homes threatened. Multiple structures damaged/ destroyed. No fatalities or severe injuries. Fire threatening to cross Highway 101 at Westlake Blvd. Unified Command: @VCFD @LAFD @LACoFDPIO @lacountysheriff @LAPDHQ @VENTURASHERIFF”
https://twitter.com/VCFD_PIO/status/1060842581137883136
LACounty Fire PIO on Twitter: "#Woolseyfire *UPDATE* Fire is at approx. 8000 acres. 0% Containment. New Mandatory evacuation orders south of 101 fwy north of Potrero rd. between Westlake bl. & Wendy dr. Evacs. in Hidden Hills area of LA County and @LAFD operational area have been down graded to voluntary.“
https://twitter.com/LACoFDPIO/status/1060847403266277376
VCFD PIO on Twitter: "#WoolseyFire Multiple structures reported burning Erbes Rd. and Moorpark Rd.”
https://twitter.com/VCFD_PIO/status/1060845736231763968
VCFD PIO on Twitter: "#Woolseyfire incident fact sheet [at the link]
https://twitter.com/VCFD_PIO/status/1060835661475852289
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Southern California fires force evacuation of Malibu (http://www.startribune.com/southern-california-fires-force-evacuation-of-1-000-homes/500119652/) - Woolsey Fire
The entire city of Malibu [California] was ordered evacuated early Friday as a ferocious Southern California's wildfire roared toward the beachside community that is home for many Hollywood celebrities.
The Los Angeles County Fire Department tweeted that the fire raging through the Santa Monica Mountains was headed to the ocean. Malibu has about 13,000 residents and lies along 21 miles (34 kilometers) of coast at the southern foot of the mountain range.
Edit:
Malibu officials initially said the order issued early Friday applied to the entire city but have now defined an area that is approximately the western two-thirds of the community.
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I'm 100 miles, as the crow flies, southwest of the Camp Fire. Smoke is so bad here schools have closed for the day. While we're in no danger from the fire, we had ours in October 2017 that burned many places in Sonoma, Mendocino, Lake and Napa counties to the ground. Nerves are frayed. Best to those in danger, evacuating and fighting this monster.
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GRAPHIC but necessary.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yd_AqyPaUTg
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That was intense, BBR.
A future with AGW will create more opportunities for carnage and heart break like this.
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That was intense, BBR.
A future with AGW will create more opportunities for carnage and heart break like this.
His narration was interesting re: how one woman allegedly had to get made-up before leaving. She died because of it.
LA is on fire. Watch live: https://abc7.com/live/23340/
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Air Station Point Mugu And Key Radar Station Threatened By Blaze (http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/24807/evacuated-naval-air-station-point-mugu-and-key-radar-station-threatened-by-blaze)
Now called the Hill Fire, the Southern California blaze broke out at 2pm on Thursday and has so far scorched 10,000 acres as it makes its way toward the Navy's sprawling air base located along the coast near Camarillo, California. An optional evacuation notice has turned into a mandatory one this evening as the commander that has purview over Naval Air Station Point Magu saw no other choice but to get his people to safety in case the fire, which has been whipped up by high winds, blitzes into the installation. Even more pressing is the status of an important radar telemetry and communications station on nearby Laguna Peak.
This facility provides surveillance and support for Point Mugu Range Complex and SOCAL Range Comlex activities and also does critical space tracking work.
Laguna Peak, which looks over the air base, seems at great high risk here—that is if it is still intact. As of 8pm, the facility was given high priority and water tenders were moving up the hill to help keep the flames at bay as the water tanks on site were empty.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ai6yrham/status/1060678892363509760
... High priority protection on Navy satellite installation on Laguna Peak
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Geoff Cornish on Twitter: "A dessicating, gusty wind has led to explosive fire behavior in California. The Camp Fire in Butte Co has grown to 70,000 acres (at least 5 killed). The Woolsey Fire has consumed 14,000 acres, threatens Malibu. Hill Fire burned 6,100 acres. #CampFire #WoolseyFire #HillFire #cawx”
https://twitter.com/StormOfCorn/status/1061014266906636288
Image with peak wind gusts at the link.
Jon Passantino on Twitter: "Malibu officials say they can't remember such a widespread evacuation of the coastal community ever happening before. 200,000 people now under evacs in the area.”
https://twitter.com/passantino/status/1061016675548463104
Buzzfeed article with many vids: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/buzzfeednews/california-wildfires
Dozens of links in this article:
Entire cities evacuate as hellish wildfires whip through California
https://grist.org/article/entire-cities-evacuate-as-hellish-wildfires-whip-through-california/
Even away from the flames, the smoke is so thick it turns day into night and reduces visibility to near zero, making it impossible to see where the fire is:
Whitney Ashton on Twitter: "Terrifying scene as @PatrickNBCLA reports from Broad Beach in #Malibu. Follow our continuous fire coverage here on @NBCLA: https://t.co/Lc81NUiFGp #WoolseyFire”
https://twitter.com/whit_ashton/status/1060989598375936000
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Excellent news. Much more of this kind of thing is needed. On the cusp of winter too hey? Well well well.
A massive fire though Sth Florida and especially Mar-a-Lago would be nice.
FUCK OFF LURK !
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Because Lurk has responded, I'll let the FO stand.
Is it such a controversial opinion to say that if catastrophes are needed to wake people up (both climate risk deniers and 'moderates' who believe AGW is real, but essentially don't want to see the status quo changed in any menaingful way), then so be it? I mean, it's out of our hands anyway.
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Because Lurk has responded, I'll let the FO stand.
Is it such a controversial opinion to say that if catastrophes are needed to wake people up (both climate risk deniers and 'moderates' who believe AGW is real, but essentially don't want to see the status quo changed in any menaingful way), then so be it? I mean, it's out of our hands anyway.
Maybe Lurk has a point - there is a saying "it it ain't broke, don't fix it". This can be changed to "people won't fix it 'til it's broke".
However, to gloat over an event which included people being burnt to death while trying to escape in their autos does not seem acceptable, at least to me.
Quote from Lurk:-
If a few have to die, to sacrifice themselves for the greater long term good of Billions and the planet herself, so be it. I'm not going to cry over it.
That comment could have come from just about any tin-pot dictator.
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Quote from Lurk:-
If a few have to die, to sacrifice themselves for the greater long term good of Billions and the planet herself, so be it. I'm not going to cry over it.
That comment could have come from just about any tin-pot dictator.
But many people think like this all the time, some consciously even. That's okay as long as nobody says it outright? I'll concede that the form of Lurk's content isn't pleasant, but there's nothing wrong with the content per se. And if he would express himself thusly at every turn, I would berate him at some point. But I can get let this one go, and get the gist of it, and so should others.
And it's very nice to feel for others outside of our monkeysphere (http://www.cracked.com/article_14990_what-monkeysphere.html), but oftentimes we feel that way because we think we ought to.
I also want people to act and demand the system is changed radically before the real catastrophes start to hit, and I will do everything I can to make it so, but I can't control a climate that's out of control, so if catastrophes happen and they wake people up faster, so be it.
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Unlikely to make a difference, unfortunately. Check out Trump's tweet:
There is no reason for these massive, deadly and costly forest fires in California except that forest management is so poor. Billions of dollars are given each year, with so many lives lost, all because of gross mismanagement of the forests. Remedy now, or no more Fed payments!
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I have expressed my views privately to Neven and Jim P, so all I will say is I concur with Gerontocrat completely on this. In my opinion, the original post nr 605 contained no redeeming rationale whatsoever. For the record I consider the planet's situation as nothing less than an energing existential crisis, happening mostly in slow motion - I am no denier. However, there are better ways to wish for people to become activated - not wishing harm or suffering, or suggesting it would helpful for it to happen here or there.
RC
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For the record I consider the planet's situation as nothing less than an energing existential crisis, happening mostly in slow motion - I am no denier. However, there are better ways to wish for people to become activated - not wishing harm or suffering, or suggesting it would helpful for it to happen here or there.
RC
You are correct. We are in the midst of a slowly evolving catastrophe.
The arguments most often that I hear fall on this same spectrum. Do we bang the drum, yell at the wind, and curse the stars? Or do we stand by as our neighbors fall victim to disasters of our own creation, either silently, grimly, or even gleefully (schadenfreude of a sort I guess)?
My own experience is that none of these work. Buckling down to do the hard work sometimes works. In this case alas the predicament we are in is too large for that to have any significant meaning. People seldom learn except by their own misfortune. Few learn by others sad experience. Fewer yet learn by wisdom.
And in the case of climate change, the delays in the system are so large that we have already set the stage for the house to burn down completely, before we ever knew that we set the house ablaze while we are locked inside.
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Unlikely to make a difference, unfortunately. Check out Trump's tweet:
There is no reason for these massive, deadly and costly forest fires in California except that forest management is so poor. Billions of dollars are given each year, with so many lives lost, all because of gross mismanagement of the forests. Remedy now, or no more Fed payments!
I am absolutely no fan from Trump but here hé has a point.
Every year there are big fires in California and every time it seems to be a surprise. You can do nothing and blame Global warming or you can act on it and try to prevent.
I am living in the Netherlands and this would never happen over here.
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Everyone alive today shares the blame because the root cause is overpopulation & degradation of the biosphere.
That door closed back in 1970's. Blame or Schadenfreude distracts.
(https://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/SmokeMap_noonPST_11-9.jpg)
https://wildfiretoday.com/2018/11/09/wildfire-smoke-map-4/
The map above shows the prediction for the distribution of wildfire smoke at noon PST November 9.
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Unlikely to make a difference, unfortunately. Check out Trump's tweet:
There is no reason for these massive, deadly and costly forest fires in California except that forest management is so poor. Billions of dollars are given each year, with so many lives lost, all because of gross mismanagement of the forests. Remedy now, or no more Fed payments!
I am absolutely no fan from Trump but here hé has a point.
Every year there are big fires in California and every time it seems to be a surprise. You can do nothing and blame Global warming or you can act on it and try to prevent.
I am living in the Netherlands and this would never happen over here.
No, Trump doesn't have a point. Trump's pissed because California is a progressive state that can't stand him or his policies. It's a state that kicked his ass in 2016, and kicked it even harder last Tuesday. It's a state that has Hollywood and Silicon Valley, places that neither need nor want his and the GOP's regressive bullshit. It's a state with millions of minorities. His tone-deaf, brain-dead, asshole remarks about the fires weren't to make a point; they were to childishly lash out against tens of millions of people who will never bow and scrape before him. Period.
From a strictly logical point of view, blaming forestry mismanagement for the rapidly increasing number of large, destructive, and deadly blazes in the state (and entire Southwest) is about as stupid as blaming Oklahoma farmers for tornadoes.
The man is an imbecile.
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Unlikely to make a difference, unfortunately. Check out Trump's tweet:
There is no reason for these massive, deadly and costly forest fires in California except that forest management is so poor. Billions of dollars are given each year, with so many lives lost, all because of gross mismanagement of the forests. Remedy now, or no more Fed payments!
I am absolutely no fan from Trump but here hé has a point.
Every year there are big fires in California and every time it seems to be a surprise. You can do nothing and blame Global warming or you can act on it and try to prevent.
I am living in the Netherlands and this would never happen over here.
Trump, as usual, is talking out of his posterior.
The US Forest budget performs 2 functions - managing forests and fighting forest fires. The fighting forest fires portion has swallowed the managing forests function. Add to that people moving into small towns in forested areas - much of the fighting forest fires money is now simply used for protecting life and property. This has also made it much harder to do controlled burns to rid the forest of fuel on the ground.
An attempt was made to separate the two budgets, so that managing forests could be maintained. The legislation failed, per usual.
And the Netherlands does not have a lot of mountain forests - I remember a small wood near Arnhem.
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I hardly know what to say about such horror and tragedy.
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GRAPHIC but necessary.
Not necessary IMHO.
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Maybe Lurk has a point - there is a saying "it it ain't broke, don't fix it". This can be changed to "people won't fix it 'til it's broke".
However, to gloat over an event which included people being burnt to death while trying to escape in their autos does not seem acceptable, at least to me.
I agree. It's no different than if someone were to gloat that the Ten Thousand Oaks gun deaths were needed and many more as well so that we could tackle the gun problem in this country.
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Unlikely to make a difference, unfortunately. Check out Trump's tweet:
There is no reason for these massive, deadly and costly forest fires in California except that forest management is so poor. Billions of dollars are given each year, with so many lives lost, all because of gross mismanagement of the forests. Remedy now, or no more Fed payments!
I am absolutely no fan from Trump but here hé has a point.
Every year there are big fires in California and every time it seems to be a surprise. You can do nothing and blame Global warming or you can act on it and try to prevent.
I am living in the Netherlands and this would never happen over here.
These ecosystems include fire (SoCal is not forest, it is chaparral). California was in a decade long drought until last year, and how has drought conditions across the state again. When you add strong winds, it doesn't matter what sort of management you apply, you get strong fires capable of jumping fire breaks, roads, lakes, etc. In that sense, you're right that it shouldn't be a surprise that there are fires.
The fires have been getting worse, both in terms of size and devastation, as models have predicted they would for well over a decade.
For Trump to say "There is no reason... except" is absurd. Especially because it was the first (and only thing) he (has) said about them, and it was >36 hours after the first one started.
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From a strictly logical point of view, blaming forestry mismanagement for the rapidly increasing number of large, destructive, and deadly blazes in the state (and entire Southwest) is about as stupid as blaming Oklahoma farmers for tornadoes.
The man is an imbecile.
Especially since the most prominent vegetation that fuels these fires are not trees but the explosive growth of grasses that occur after each rainy season. Paradoxically, the most deadly fires occur after very wet rainy seasons as this results in more fuel for the approaching fire season.
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What can I do if i get a sense of justice knowing that Trump and all the climate change deniers that stopped humanity from mounting a defense will suffer climate change like the rest of us, maybe more. Even then. I wish that justice was spared because I will share in it, like we all will.
As climate change increases it's toll on humanity more people will certainly jump into action, unless there is a force telling them that there is nothing to fear. Then most of them will take the comforting voice over the horrible fear. Smart... in the short term is the most profitable fraud in history. Dumb... in the long term it will destroy everything.
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The CAMP fire is now 100,000 acres and 20% contained, according to CALFIRE this morning. It is threatening several additional cities, including Oroville.
http://www.fire.ca.gov/current_incidents/incidentdetails/Index/2277
Camp Fire grows to 100,000 acres, threatens Oroville
The Camp Fire is threatening the city of Oroville, Cal Fire warned Saturday morning.
“The fire will continue to burn to the southwest toward Big Bend, Berry Creek and threatening the city of Oroville,” Cal Fire said in its incident information report for Saturday morning.
“The expected strong northeast wind event has the potential to drive fire across Lake Oroville threatening the city of Oroville,” the agency said.
Fire officials said engines and crews will be “prepositioned in preidentified locations in anticipation of the wind event.”
Meanwhile, firefighters are continuing to patrol Paradise, Concow and Magalia.
https://www.redding.com/story/news/2018/11/10/donald-trump-threatens-federal-funding-california-fires-camp-fire/1951713002/
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Sunday is going to be very bad, IMO. It is telling that we are now setting records for "worst" fires in consecutive years. Why not 100,000+ homes in one go? One day soon, it is probably going to happen, and when it does, tendrils of gridlock will be transformed into ad-hoc cemeteries.
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LACounty Fire PIO (@LACoFDPIO)
11/9/18, 10:52 PM
#WoolseyFire *UPDATE* Approx. 35,000 acres, 0% contained, very significant number of homes in the operational area damaged or destroyed by fire. More than 200,000 residents and 75,000 homes under mandatory evacuation. 0700 @CAL_FIRE type 1 IMT 5 will assume command of this fire.
https://twitter.com/lacofdpio/status/1061104371910332416
Edit: now 70,000 acres, per CALFIRE.
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CAL FIRE (@CAL_FIRE)
11/10/18, 11:16 AM
#HillFire [update] at Hill Canyon Rd and Santa Rosa Rd, Santa Rosa Valley (Ventura County) is now 4,531 acres and 25% contained. Unified Command: CAL FIRE and @VCFD
vcemergency.com
https://twitter.com/cal_fire/status/1061291434068783104
Image below.
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Want to help fire victims? Don’t send any more stuff
Cash is best, disaster aid groups say, because it can be spent on what disaster victims need at the moment they need it.
Following the Carr Fire, for instance, a mother of three young children needed a car seat and gas, so volunteers used donated funds to buy her a new one and fill up her tank, said Dusty Steele, a Shasta County volunteer who’s helping distribute donations to victims.
https://www.sacbee.com/latest-news/article215793825.html
Send cash and gift cards; not stuff. After every disaster, huge piles of donationed goods just get thrown out.
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I was born in Southern Calif. and have lived here most of my life. In the fall we get Santa Ana wind conditions and we usually get fires. Southern Calif. has not escaped drought conditions for eight years although Northern Calif. did get out of drought conditions for a couple years. S. Cal chaparel is a very fire prone habitat and building houses there is an invitation to disaster. We will however build there and as long as insurance pays for our risk taking we won't change.
I don't know how long this drought will last. The return of the ridiculously resistant ridge is in my opinion a better indicator of climate change than the rather predictable fires. If the drought drags on long enough our S.Cal. reserviors will go dry and finding water to control the fires will dictate when we lose the ability to live in the hills.
For ten thousand years the native Americans that lived here burned the chaparel in the spring when the ground was wet enough to limit the risk of fires getting out of control. The grasses that came after the fires supported deer, rabbits and game that provided food for the Indians. Mechanically cutting down the chaparel and composting it would be a better option than waiting for it to burn . It is of course the mega rich who occupy the Malibu hills. If they lose their mansions they kinda deserve it for ignoring the obvious, for being the gross carbon emitters they are and for sniveling about their views being damaged by brush removal or controlled burns. That some poor schmuck from Compton has to pay taxes to help the rich people in Malibu, Thousand Oaks, Montecieto or Santa Barbara just ain't right but fleecing the masses is as chronic as the climate denial that permeates our society.
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Photos from the Camp fire.
Photographer captures devastation from the front lines of the Camp Fire
Edelson has photographed California wildfires for more than 10 years and says the fast-pace of the Camp Fire resembled the Carr Fire that blackened 229,651 acres near Redding in the summer.
"I've been doing this a long time, and they wildfires have gotten a lot crazier," he says. "It used to be relatively predictable. Now, you don't know what to expect. Every year, a new fire breaks out that defies all the rules and behavior of fires. Every year is the new normal, the new extreme. More deaths. More destruction."
https://www.sfgate.com/california-wildfires/article/Camp-Fire-Josh-Edelson-Photographer-Paradise-13377948.php
More:
Paradise lost: Before-and-after photos show a town devoured by a raging wildfire
https://www.sfgate.com/california-wildfires/article/Camp-Fire-Paradise-before-and-after-photos-13378605.php
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Remarkable images - thanks for posting
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California Firefighters President Rips Trump’s Fire Tweet: ‘Ill-Informed, Ill-Timed and Demeaning’ (https://www.thewrap.com/trumps-california-fire-tweet-ill-informed-ill-timed-demeaning-says-ca-firefighters-president/amp/)
“The president’s message attacking California and threatening to withhold aid to the victims of the cataclysmic fires is Ill-informed, ill-timed and demeaning to those who are suffering as well as the men and women on the front lines,” California Professional Firefighters President Brian K. Rice said in a statement on Saturday.
“At a time when our every effort should be focused on vanquishing the destructive fires and helping the victims, the president has chosen instead to issue an uninformed political threat aimed squarely at the innocent victims of these cataclysmic fires.”
“The president’s assertion that California’s forest management policies are to blame for catastrophic wildfire is dangerously wrong,” Rice continued. “Wildfires are sparked and spread not only in forested areas but in populated areas and open fields fueled by parched vegetation, high winds, low humidity and geography. Moreover, nearly 60 percent of California forests are under federal management, and another two-thirds under private control. It is the federal government that has chosen to divert resources away from forest management, not California.”
“At this moment, thousands of our brother and sister firefighters are putting their lives on the line to protect the lives and property of thousands. Some of them are doing so even as their own homes lay in ruins. In my view, this shameful attack on California is an attack on all our courageous men and women on the front lines.
“Natural disasters are not “red” or “blue” – they destroy regardless of party. Right now, families are in mourning, thousands have lost homes, and a quarter-million Americans have been forced to flee. At this desperate time, we would encourage the president to offer support in word and deed, instead of recrimination and blame.”
- California Professional Firefighters President Brian K. Rice
International Association of Fire Fighters calls President Donald Trump's comments "Irresponsible, Reckless and Insulting." (https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Trump-Threatens-to-Withhold-Federal-Payments-to-California-Claiming-its-Forest-Management-is-Poor-500197612.html?amp=y)
The International Association of Fire Fighters is calling President Donald Trump's comment about massive wildfires burning throughout California "irresponsible, reckless and insulting."
The firefighters union responded to what were Trump's first 'thoughts' about the wildfires, including a blaze that incinerated most of the Northern California town of Paradise and killed at least nine people, saying that his "crass" suggestion in cutting off federal payments to the state "shows a troubling lack of real comprehension about the disaster at hand."
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For ten thousand years the native Americans that lived here burned the chaparel in the spring when the ground was wet enough to limit the risk of fires getting out of control.
Ethnographic studies and other historical documents show that California Indians were responsible for extensive burning and type-conversion of chaparral and other shrublands to grasslands in order to increase favored game species, protect themselves from predators (the favored habitat of the California grizzly bear was chaparral), and as a tool of warfare.
http://www.californiachaparral.com/enativeamericans.html
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https://wildfiretoday.com/2018/11/10/wildfire-smoke-map-november-10-2018/
(https://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/AirQualitySacramento.jpg)
At 11:20 a.m. PST Saturday the air quality north of Sacramento was Unhealthy to Very Unhealthy.
(https://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/SmokeForecast_11-10.jpg)
Above is the forecast for the distribution of smoke from wildfires at 6 p.m. PST November 10, 2018.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Drk4-0GX4AAuUqt?format=jpg&name=small)
Paradise, CA has only seen 0.88" of rain since May 1st. The Average rainfall between May 1st & Oct 31st is 7.13"! This is the conditions that have lead to a absolutely horrific fire known as the #CampFire #CAwx #CalFire #CaliforniaFires
https://mobile.twitter.com/JamesSinko/status/1060942166892204033
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At one point in history, we had a Republican President who - through a little experience - vaguely understood protecting homes from wildfire.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Drqa0JnV4AAfSzk?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Mr. Nixon was wetting down his shake shingle roof as a wildfire burned near his San Clemente, California home.
https://mobile.twitter.com/jduhnkrack/status/1061330892931493888
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I think human habitation may have a far greater impact on SSTA / the RRR than previously thought. When looking at the East Coast / Canada / etc you can clearly see where rivers interact with the oceans, they generally cool off substantially (source regions play a key part, but the flow in general is crucial). With river flows dwindling consistently into the 2010s as big agriculture / etc have siphoned off all the water, this is probably an additional reason that SSTA / RRR have become so outrageous so consistently in CA, in particular. A self-reinforcing loop, if you will, or at least it must play some part. The decline in mountain snowpack / western glaciers is surely another factor.
However, I think the lack of ice in the Bering is probably the PRIMARY driver (?)
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Death toll in California wildfires climbs to 25 (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna934846)
Butte County Sheriff Kory L. Honea said the 14 bodies were recovered in the Camp Fire, thought to be the most destructive wildfire in state history. Nine deaths had previously been reported in that fire.
... Honea said that of the 14 new deaths, four were in the Concow area, east of Paradise, and 10 were in the Paradise area. He said 110 people remain unaccounted for but cautioned that some may be duplicative. On Friday, officials said five bodies were found in or near cars that were overcome by flames, and four others were found at residences in Paradise.
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Re: tRump's poor "forest management" tweet...
... The Pasadena Firefighters Association strongly objected to the president’s remarks, tweeting: “Mr. President, with all due respect, you are wrong. The fires in So. Cal are urban interface fires and have NOTHING to do with forest management."
"Come to SoCal and learn the facts & help the victims," the tweet, attributed to Scott Austin, the president of the International Association of Fire Fighters 809, read.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PFA809/status/1061307981638193152
Trump in August made similar claims about California's water and environmental management in relation to fires, claims which were rejected by experts.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/experts-reject-trump-claim-california-water-policies-hurt-firefighting-n898101
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Private firefighters and five-star hotels: how the rich sit out wildfires
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/20/private-firefighters-wildfire-insurance-climate-change-capitalism
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Disturbing thread about an uncontained nuclear meltdown and other historic toxic pollution at the Santa Susana Field Laboratory near the Woolsey fire
https://mobile.twitter.com/BradleySA/status/1060715044218884096
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To be sung to the tune of "Spam" https://youtu.be/anwy2MPT5RE?t=66
Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! Trump! and Trump!
It would be more interesting if his remarks on the wildfire would be used to beat him around the ears with, hang it around his neck. But I suspect it's all about that Whitaker guy now or whatever the distraction du jour it is that ASLR is copypasting.
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Death toll in California wildfires climbs to 25
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/deaths-suspected-california-wildfires-winds-set-pick-back-n934846
This was Paradise: ‘How do you quantify everything being gone?’
The Camp Fire sparked around 6:30 a.m., near Camp Creek Road off Highway 70. The sky turned yellow first, which was alarming, but residents here are used to smoke. Northern California had been on fire all summer. In July, darkness had cloaked the sun for days as the Carr Fire roared in Redding.
Then everything went black.
The Butte County Sheriff’s Office issued a red-alert to 23,682 contacts over email, text and phone call. More than 1,038 people calls clogged the 911 line, and more than 600 requests for welfare checks were made. As the Camp Fire roared into Paradise, the California Highway Patrol reversed the in-bound lanes on Skyway Road and Highway-32.
Officials had planned for this — 11 evacuation zones and more alerts. But the Camp Fire moved faster than humans can, burning nearly an acre per second.
Chaos ensued. Cell service cut out in much of the town. Headlights barely pierced the midnight smoke. Residents sheltered in the Walgreens and K-Mart parking lots, waiting for county buses to rescue them. Some drivers abandoned their cars in the gridlock of traffic, running down Skyway Road or pushing their loved ones in wheelchairs down the sidewalk. ...
https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/article/This-was-Paradise-How-do-you-quantify-13381061.php
A dozen or so articles on people, pets, and devastation in the Paradise (Camp) fire in this thread:
https://twitter.com/sfchronicle/status/1061268837855830016
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Randall Gates (@rgatess)
11/11/18, 1:51 PM
The high amplitude meridonal jet stream flow we are now beginning to see more frequently is both a predicted effect of #ClimateChange and a factor influencing extreme weather events, including the current #CaliforniaFires h/t @MichaelEMann
https://twitter.com/rgatess/status/1061692842773368832
Image below; GIF at the link.
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Dave Toussaint (@engineco16)
11/11/18, 1:23 PM
#CampFire Air attack ordering 5 very large air tankers (LATs) and 2 very large air tankers (VLATs). We also have two IR planes over the fire right now.
https://twitter.com/engineco16/status/1061685906954829824
Image below: past tracks of two aircraft attacking the Camp fire 1 hour ago.
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NWS (@NWS)
11/11/18, 3:18 PM
Strong offshore flow, promoting significant wildfire potential, will continue across much of southwestern California on Monday resulting in extremely critical conditions.
There is an elevated risk in northern California.
https://twitter.com/nws/status/1061714717675319297
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As of Sunday night, the Camp Fire has killed at least 29 people and destroyed 6,713 buildings in and around the Northern California city of Paradise, but those numbers could still increase as officials continue their surveys. More than 200 people remain missing, warned the local sheriff’s office.
It’s now the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in state history.
Woolsey fire:
City of Calabasas (@CityofCalabasas)
11/11/18, 8:33 PM
ENTIRE CITY OF CALABASAS NOW UNDER MANDATORY EVACUATION NOTICE. Please see statement from City Manager Gary Lysik
https://twitter.com/cityofcalabasas/status/1061794018508468226
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Another round of extreme fire weather
The next several days will be a grueling period for California firefighters and residents, especially in the hilly terrain stretching from Santa Barbara to San Diego. An upper-level low settling into the central U.S. is pushing a surface high into California, much like the one that triggered high winds on Thursday. The air making its way into the state from Nevada is exceptionally dry. The 12Z Sunday morning sounding held just 0.10” of precipitable water at Reno, NV, and 0.13” at Las Vegas, which is about a third of the average amount for this time of year. As this air is pushed over California’s mountain ranges, it will warm upon descent, and the relative humidity will plummet to the 5% range in some areas. Temperatures across California will not be extremely warm the next several days—in part because the widespread smoke will block solar heating—but the air is so dry that relative humidity will still be very low.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/High-Winds-Through-Tuesday-Will-Worsen-Californias-Historic-Wildfire-Disaster?cm_ven=cat6-widget
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Still not enough. We need more destruction, more often, in more places.
It needs to get much worse and more deadly until all the people really notice and then consciously choose to take Global warming and the economic myths driving us to global destruction much more seriously and then ACT accordingly - eg to repeatedly riot on the streets and topple the Governments who are refusing to act on our and our descendants behalf.
Or is that just too damn radical?
In this vein, I'd like to ask again: Are Trump's inane remarks on the wildfires causing a shitstorm in the media? Is this policy-related stuff hung around his neck like a stone? Or is it all about the stuff Buddy, ASLR and Rob Dekker keep posting in various threads, related to the Mueller investigation or some other non-policy-related thing that Trump does or is being done to Trump?
Because if it's the latter, I agree with Lurk.
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Because if it's the latter, I agree with Lurk.
Mostly nothing sticks in the media about Trump (SOME for good reason some for not ) and eventually it all reverts back to Mueller ,Russia and maybe tax returns.
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Mostly nothing sticks in the media about Trump
Not sure about that. Those comments about the Forest Service will have pissed off a lot of people all over the USA. The Forest Service is close-knit and highly loyal to its duties and each other. A hell of a lot of people have seen the forest service risking life and limb for their fellow citizens.
Being belittled by the President will have an effect..
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Even if you choose the inhumane approach, the people of California have taken notice a long time ago. So wish your disasters on the deniers and wanton destroyers.
And Trump is taking shit from all directions. I've seen lots of angry replies from ordinary people as well as officials. But does he care?
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Still not enough. We need more destruction, more often, in more places.
It needs to get much worse and more deadly until all the people really notice and then consciously choose to take Global warming and the economic myths driving us to global destruction much more seriously and then ACT accordingly - eg to repeatedly riot on the streets and topple the Governments who are refusing to act on our and our descendants behalf.
Or is that just too damn radical?
In this vein, I'd like to ask again: Are Trump's inane remarks on the wildfires causing a shitstorm in the media? Is this policy-related stuff hung around his neck like a stone? Or is it all about the stuff Buddy, ASLR and Rob Dekker keep posting in various threads, related to the Mueller investigation or some other non-policy-related thing that Trump does or is being done to Trump?
Because if it's the latter, I agree with Lurk.
No. I don´t agree at all.
I have a daughter living on north Los Angeles and I am concerned that Woolsey Fire could spread into Santa Monica. Why can we think that more destruction is necessary? Or why should we wish for a new lowest record on ASI, and think that we have to wait for it to happen?
The situation is bad enough. I understand that it has been exhausting all the effort of creating a Forum and be concerned all these years. But we cannot quit, and we cannot think that it is necessary to have more damage.
We must spread our point of view. We must make summaries of what it has happened and continue fighting to make governments and general public react against AGW.
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They don't care and neither does my neighbour, who has something that's reminiscent of a confederate battle flag hanging outside his house.
Anyone who find these videos disturbing?
(Do NOT watch these, if you should and don't understand Swedish, select the second one.)
https://youtu.be/fA5sGtj7QKQ (https://youtu.be/fA5sGtj7QKQ)
Posted 20181021 and now 242 162 views.
It's the same crap here:
https://youtu.be/h2SeZiKjzYk (https://youtu.be/h2SeZiKjzYk)
Posted 20181012 and now 46 671 views.
The IPCC SR15 Press Conference posted 20181008 now has 11 876 views. When it was live it hovered around 450 views...
Just to make this slightly on topic, two Paradise's gone in the US. The first was hauled away by Peabody.
https://youtu.be/DEy6EuZp9IY
Posted 20070720 and now 2 374 352 views, that's what the IPCC press conference should've had, if people did care about a summary.
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@Sleepy
Terrifying. I could only watch a couple of minutes.
There are lots of people who will not be convinced by anything that happens. I've already noticed a conspiracy theory going around to explain these fires as the result of a "directed energy weapon" being used to manipulate the environment. (I heard similar things about hurricane Michael).
"Mother Nature doesn't behave like that," said one poster, not understanding that "mother nature" is not fixed for all eternity, and that she does now behave like this. Such people are lost causes, I'm afraid.
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Robert Rohde (@RARohde)
11/12/18, 5:42 AM
This year, like 2017, California has had an unusually hot & dry fire season. Most of the largest and most destructive wildfires in CA history have happened under such conditions. Climate change is making this situation worse.
#CaliforniaFires #ClimateChange
[Image below]
I also created an animated version which helps to emphasize how weather conditions during California's fire season have evolved over time. #CaliforniaFires #ClimateChange
https://twitter.com/rarohde/status/1061932207940530176
[GIF at the link.]
Weather data for these images is taken from @NOAA's Climate at a Glance Data Explorer, e.g. ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/statewide/….
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Saddest part of us 'wishing' Mother N. to hit back with a vengeance (so as to leave folk no doubt that we have pushed her too far?) and so see the need act decisively NOW! is that it will probably be a developing world catastrophe and not in the developed world that set all of this into motion?
Of course if P.I.G./Thwaites begin a rapid, ice cliff failure, collapse threatening all our ocean coast sited nuke power stations then that might do it? ( but then what of the ports/oil terminals? which would they focus on first???)
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No. I don´t agree at all.
I have a daughter living on north Los Angeles and I am concerned that Woolsey Fire could spread into Santa Monica. Why can we think that more destruction is necessary? Or why should we wish for a new lowest record on ASI, and think that we have to wait for it to happen?
My point is that if instead of hanging this around Trump's neck, people prefer the political wrestling, the Kabuki theatre of Mueller, Whitaker and Jim Acosta and whatever the daily media-ratings-propaganda crap is that is copypasted onto this forum every day, then obviously things still aren't deemed bad enough. And thus need to get worse.
I wish it weren't so, but if there's one thing I've learned from running this forum for five years, it's that even people who accept the science of AGW, aren't really serious about AGW or its causes.
But forget the wildfires. Does Mueller finally have Roger Stone by the balls? Has Jim Acosta been declared holy by the Pope yet? And where are the tax returns? Look! There! Russia!
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Neven,
There has been a significant outcry over Trump’s ignorant ‘forest mismanagement’ comment. First, the federal government manages over 40% of California's land; the state, 30%. The Forest Service has been asking for years for more money for forest management, but what money the federal government has allocated was earmarked for fighting fires, instead. In addition, the Woolsey, etc. fires in southern California are not in “forests,” but in wildland-urban interfaces. Grasses and weeds grow up quickly after brief periods of rain, then die in subsequent drought; susceptible to any spark.
Trump blames California wildfires on 'gross mismanagement of forests' -
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-blames-california-wildfires-on-gross-mismanagement-of-forests-2018-11
https://variety.com/2018/politics/news/trump-wildfire-blame-backlash-praise-first-responders-1203025524/
It’s easier for news outlets (and, I suppose, forum commenters ;) ) to whip up clicks/outrage featuring politics rather than reporting on real events, but I assure you, people care more about this crisis than all the political blathering you may see.
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There are lots of people who will not be convinced by anything that happens. I've already noticed a conspiracy theory going around to explain these fires as the result of a "directed energy weapon" being used to manipulate the environment. (I heard similar things about hurricane Michael).
Of course it is an "energy weapon" - burning fossil fuels creating excess energy in the atmosphere which is changing "manipulating" the environment. And it is "directed", by the massive effort from the lobbying industry to keep on burning fossil fuels. Perhaps a synonym for a "directed energy weapon" is "Business As Usual"?
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In this vein, I'd like to ask again: Are Trump's inane remarks on the wildfires causing a shitstorm in the media?
...
Here is a very small selection of some of mainstream media's cover of Trump's inane remarks. And by in large this seems to be policy related criticisms:
Title: "Firefighter union president rips Trump for "demeaning" comments about California wildfires"
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-tweet-about-california-fires-firefighter-union-president-responds-for-what-president-said-about-california-wildfires/
&
Title: "President Trump's tweet on California wildfires angers firefighters, celebrities"
https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/11/politics/california-wildfires-trump-tweets/index.html
&
Title: "Here's everything President Donald Trump has tweeted about the California wildfires"
https://www.redding.com/story/news/local/fires/2018/11/11/california-fires-camp-woolsey-donald-trump-tweets/1967717002/
&
Title: "CNN Meteorologist Explains Why President Trump Is So Wrong About California's Wildfires"
https://earther.gizmodo.com/cnn-meteorologist-explains-why-president-trump-is-so-wr-1830377986
&
Title: "Trump keeps up criticism as California fires rage"
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-energy/2018/11/12/trump-keeps-up-criticism-as-california-fires-rage-408151
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Still not enough. We need more destruction, more often, in more places.
It needs to get much worse and more deadly until all the people really notice and then consciously choose to take Global warming and the economic myths driving us to global destruction much more seriously and then ACT accordingly - eg to repeatedly riot on the streets and topple the Governments who are refusing to act on our and our descendants behalf.
Or is that just too damn radical?
In this vein, I'd like to ask again: Are Trump's inane remarks on the wildfires causing a shitstorm in the media? Is this policy-related stuff hung around his neck like a stone? Or is it all about the stuff Buddy, ASLR and Rob Dekker keep posting in various threads, related to the Mueller investigation or some other non-policy-related thing that Trump does or is being done to Trump?
Because if it's the latter, I agree with Lurk.
Trump is a symptom not a cause. E.G., by the time cities start burning to the ground, the illness will have already progressed to the point where cities are burning to the ground, and it will only keep getting worse.
My attitude towards watching the world burn with my dear Austrian friend Neven at my side:
(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/00/af/10/00af100720935e0decc99cb7be6e13a9.gif)
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Still not enough. We need more destruction, more often, in more places.
It needs to get much worse and more deadly until all the people really notice and then consciously choose to take Global warming and the economic myths driving us to global destruction much more seriously and then ACT accordingly - eg to repeatedly riot on the streets and topple the Governments who are refusing to act on our and our descendants behalf.
Or is that just too damn radical?
In this vein, I'd like to ask again: Are Trump's inane remarks on the wildfires causing a shitstorm in the media? Is this policy-related stuff hung around his neck like a stone? Or is it all about the stuff Buddy, ASLR and Rob Dekker keep posting in various threads, related to the Mueller investigation or some other non-policy-related thing that Trump does or is being done to Trump?
Because if it's the latter, I agree with Lurk.
first of all +1
second i want to add that to wake up the mob it takes more undeniable directly related events and i fear that only once the atlantic inundated kind of places like the donald's golf course in florida or in other words once people have to leave and lose their homes and their fortunes (mortgages on houses that don't exist anymore) a vast majority will come to terms, again unfortunately that won't go peacefully and the effect of the uproar will be even much more destructive than the slowly but steadily rising waters.
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Still not enough. We need more destruction, more often, in more places.
It needs to get much worse and more deadly until all the people really notice and then consciously choose to take Global warming and the economic myths driving us to global destruction much more seriously and then ACT accordingly - eg to repeatedly riot on the streets and topple the Governments who are refusing to act on our and our descendants behalf.
Or is that just too damn radical?
In this vein, I'd like to ask again: Are Trump's inane remarks on the wildfires causing a shitstorm in the media? Is this policy-related stuff hung around his neck like a stone? Or is it all about the stuff Buddy, ASLR and Rob Dekker keep posting in various threads, related to the Mueller investigation or some other non-policy-related thing that Trump does or is being done to Trump?
Because if it's the latter, I agree with Lurk.
first of all +1
second i want to add that to wake up the mob it takes more undeniable directly related events and i fear that only once the atlantic inundated kind of places like the donald's golf course in florida or in other words once people have to leave and lose their homes and their fortunes (mortgages on houses that don't exist anymore) a vast majority will come to terms, again unfortunately that won't go peacefully and the effect of the uproar will be even much more destructive than the slowly but steadily rising waters.
At that point the US Army and massive private security forces will be rounded up to corral whatever cattle are misbehaving. Those who lose their homes will simply be destitute and poor. They should be paying attention to the warnings currently flying and their consumption makes them culpable as well so is the loss of a large part of the "middle class" really an actual loss anyways (?)
Also, DT's Mar A Lago is situated atop the highest point of the coastal limestone ridge along the FL shore, so it is going to be among the last properties to go under. Millions of poor and middle class people in MIA will be affected by 2025. I anticipate South Florida will look a bit like an American Syria come the 2030s.
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And California probably faster than 2030. With snowfall going down in the southern rockies, and rainfall already more than a month to late it's not promising much good for the future. And with hundreds of thousand of people moving in legally, and hundreds of thousands moving in illegally every year, i wish them all the luck in the world. And last year there were even rapports from firefighters starting the fires themself. They were a private company, and they only get payed if there is a fire.
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“We cling to the edge of the continent, shaken by loss, too foolish to run, or too much in love.”
One California calamity after another, and yet we always endure - Los Angeles Times
http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-lopez-calamity-11112018-story.html
Terrifying tales of survival in Paradise, and horror for those who didn't make it out of the Camp fire
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-paradise-fire-survival-20181112-story.html
In pictures: The animals caught in California's wildfires
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46178230
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CAL FIRE (@CAL_FIRE)
11/12/18, 2:34 PM
The #CampFire has produced an online interactive evacuation map for citizens to view. You can view the map at this URL:
Camp Fire - Evacuation/Repopulation Map
http://nifc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=41fe4499192a4e008a1d0c69a96d6284
https://twitter.com/cal_fire/status/1062066124454473728
Evacuation area currently extends to the edge of Oroville.
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It’s easier for news outlets (and, I suppose, forum commenters ;) ) to whip up clicks/outrage featuring politics rather than reporting on real events, but I assure you, people care more about this crisis than all the political blathering you may see.
Thanks, Sig. Keep up the good work.
Title: "Trump keeps up criticism as California fires rage"
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-energy/2018/11/12/trump-keeps-up-criticism-as-california-fires-rage-408151
He keeps it up? Perfect! That means 'The Resistance' should keep it up too, and leave all the lawyer bullshit be for a few days. This is the kind of stuff that brings Trump down, not the Russiagate wrestling event.
Anything else on the illegal endless wars, millions of Americans living paycheck to paycheck until someone gets sick, crushing student debt, Trump being part of the establishment swamp? There's hours of material to pick from every day for the mainstream media, instead of propping up Trump for ratings with all the lawyer bullshit and political theatre.
This is what brings Trump down.
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Aha...
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My point is that if instead of hanging this around Trump's neck, people prefer the political wrestling, the Kabuki theatre of Mueller, Whitaker and Jim Acosta and whatever the daily media-ratings-propaganda crap is that is copypasted onto this forum every day, then obviously things still aren't deemed bad enough. And thus need to get worse.
I wish it weren't so, but if there's one thing I've learned from running this forum for five years, it's that even people who accept the science of AGW, aren't really serious about AGW or its causes.
But forget the wildfires. Does Mueller finally have Roger Stone by the balls? Has Jim Acosta been declared holy by the Pope yet? And where are the tax returns? Look! There! Russia!
MSNBC just ran a harrowing interview with a fire survivor, and then discussed the insane Trump tweet about the fires. Pretty powerful. Alas they don't have it on their Youtube channel yet.
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This is the kind of stuff that brings Trump down, not the Russiagate wrestling event.
Did Katrina (New Orleans) hurt GW Bush or raise AGW awareness? Nope.
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MSNBC just ran a harrowing interview with a fire survivor, and then discussed the insane Trump tweet about the fires. Pretty powerful. Alas they don't have it on their Youtube channel yet.
Great, thanks for mentioning.
This is the kind of stuff that brings Trump down, not the Russiagate wrestling event.
Did Katrina (New Orleans) hurt GW Bush or raise AGW awareness? Nope.
It definitely hurt Bush, I believe (see Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_government_response_to_Hurricane_Katrina)).
If it is done with the same fervour the MSM invests in Russiagate, this kind of stuff can really hurt Trump. I'm sure of it. And there are other social issues that hurt Trump a lot more than the stuff that drives ratings. The thing is, these things also hurt the system and raise awareness, which is not what corporate media is about.
PS I've seen some videos today, and they're as horrible as any I've seen before. Wildfires are the worst.
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https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=la66Q1ZbEoI
Meteorologist debunks Trump on wildfires tweet
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And California probably faster than 2030. With snowfall going down in the southern rockies, and rainfall already more than a month to late it's not promising much good for the future. And with hundreds of thousand of people moving in legally, and hundreds of thousands moving in illegally every year, i wish them all the luck in the world. And last year there were even rapports from firefighters starting the fires themself. They were a private company, and they only get payed if there is a fire.
You really need to leave now.
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Immmediate preventative measures:
#NBC7 San Diego on Twitter: "FIRST ALERT WEATHER: Power has been shut off to dozens of San Diego-area communities during today's Red Flag Warning.
https://twitter.com/nbcsandiego/status/1062090925508308992
Long-term preventative measures:
Fueling the Fire
...
Controlling combustibles is a major reason we halted the routine conflagration of cities that afflicted America’s cities up to a century ago. Until then, towns burned as often as the surrounding countryside since both were made of the same materials and experienced the same drought and winds. In principle, a similar logic might apply to our rural and wild landscapes if we could agree on what we wanted and how to achieve it. Proper tinkering, many observers think, might allow us to promote the good fires we want and prevent the bad fires we don’t.
For members of the Trump administration, this reasoning leads to “forest management,” which they seem to equate with chain saws. They argue that big-tree logging can be a benign (and profitable) surrogate for fire. But while all fuel is biomass, not all biomass is available as fuel. What fire wants is particles with a lot of surface relative to mass; it wants what a campfire or hearth fire wants. If you wish a fire to flash and roar, put in pine needles, dry grass, and kindling. Add a freshly cut green log and the fire will go out.
Which is to say, logging and burning do different things. Logging physically removes biomass; fire chemically changes it. Logging takes the big stuff and leaves the little; fire burns the little stuff and leaves the big. After a crown fire—a fire that flashes through a forest canopy—what remains are the tree trunks that logging would have hauled off. Removing them earlier would have lathered the land with post-cut debris called slash—exactly the kind of volatile fuel that fire favors. Slash disposal, in turn, typically means burning it, which has its own hazards for escape fires and which fills the sky with noxious smoke. Up until recent decades, the great conflagrations of American history have, with almost preternatural cunning, trailed logging and land-clearing. This is a country that is good at startups, not so great at cleaning up after itself. But that doesn’t mean some kinds of active management can’t work.
Where fires are crashing into towns, the real fuel is the built environment. Aerial photos of savaged suburbs tend to show incinerated structures and still-standing trees. The vegetation is adapted to fire; the houses aren’t. Once multiple structures begin to burn, the local fire services are overwhelmed and the fire spreads from building to building. This is the kind of urban conflagration Americans thought they had banished in the early 20th century. It’s like watching measles or polio return. Clearly, the critical reforms must target our houses and towns and revaccinate them against today’s fire threats. The National Fire Protection Association’s Firewise program shows how to harden houses and create defensible space without nuking the scene into asphalt or dirt. ...
https://slate.com/technology/2018/11/california-woolsey-camp-fire-trump-forest-management.html
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Authorities have reported 13 more fatalities from a blaze in Northern California that destroyed a town, bringing the total death toll so far to 42 and making it the deadliest wildfire in recorded state history.
7:35 p.m.
A woman who owns property near the location where a deadly wildfire started in Northern California says she got an email from utility Pacific Gas & Electric Co. last week. It said crews needed to come on her property because their transmission system was causing sparks.
It’s still not clear what caused the massive fire that has killed 29 people. PG&E said Thursday it experienced a problem on an electrical transmission line near the site of the massive fire, minutes before the blaze broke out.
It started in the area of 64 acres of land in Pulga, California, owned by Betsy Ann Cowley.
She said she had received an email on Wednesday, the day before the fire started, saying that crews needed to come to her property. Cowley said the email said crews were coming to work on the high-power lines because “they were having problems with sparks.”
PG&E declined to discuss the email when contacted by The Associated Press.
California fire investigators were at Cowley’s property on Monday.
https://apnews.com/a848e5aae864417fae58cf8c8c0c841e
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And California probably faster than 2030. With snowfall going down in the southern rockies, and rainfall already more than a month to late it's not promising much good for the future. And with hundreds of thousand of people moving in legally, and hundreds of thousands moving in illegally every year, i wish them all the luck in the world. And last year there were even rapports from firefighters starting the fires themself. They were a private company, and they only get payed if there is a fire.
You really need to leave now.
Ah, I wondered why I had him on ignore. Is it wrong to wish weather-related harm to types of A555?
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It's just the inconvenient truth. But did you not supported this way of life yourself that created this mess ? That's maybe why you like to blame Trump for everything. To hide yourself behind. And a lot can happen by 2030. If you take Florida, the red tide. How many beaches were closed a big part of the year ? They say that human activity contributes to the red tide. And how did all that stuff made it to the sea. Hurricanes, floods..... It started last year just after the hurricane season. And this year again you had 2 hurricanes that flooded importend industrial and agricutural land. So if this contributes to the red tide and it continues until next summer. Than how will Florida look like by than ? A globalist graveyard. And did you not supported that one world/open border policy yourself. But i understand that you don't like to hear this.
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11/12/18, 10:21 PM
UPDATE: The #CampFire began under atmospheric conditions with “no analog/comparison” in history for the date. Northern California vegetation dryness was off the charts.
Very simply: Without climate change, this fire would not have been so severe. This is an unnatural tragedy.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1062183675612332034
An update to my EDDI posts with data now through November 7. The 1-week, 4-week, 6-week, 3-months all maxed out on the EDDI. Extreme fire conditions in these fuels has no analog/comparison.
https://twitter.com/robelvington/status/1062136957269008385
Image below; more at the link.
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By the way .... if you have 6,500 houses destroyed, at an average of 2,000 sq feet (conservatively), at a rebuild cost of $130 sq ft (again .... conservatively) .... you get just under $1.7 BILLION.
This doesn’t include other costs like lost work/wages, the cost of fighting the fire, loss of life, etc.
You would think that any FISCAL conservative would see the FINANCIAL wisdom of trying to mitigate global warming before the costs of treating the results of global warming get too out of hand. We’re just now scratching the surface of accelerating costs of treating the results of global warming.
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By the way .... if you have 6,500 houses destroyed, at an average of 2,000 sq feet (conservatively), at a rebuild cost of $130 sq ft (again .... conservatively) .... you get just under $1.7 BILLION.
This doesn’t include other costs like lost work/wages, the cost of fighting the fire, loss of life, etc.
You would think that any FISCAL conservative would see the FINANCIAL wisdom of trying to mitigate global warming before the costs of treating the results of global warming get too out of hand. We’re just now scratching the surface of accelerating costs of treating the results of global warming.
There has been no proof that wildfires and global warming have any connection besides in the media. There is more cost of damage because there are more people and more property than before.
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There has been no proof that wildfires and global warming have any connection besides in the media. There is more cost of damage because there are more people and more property than before.
Yes, it's all a coincidence. Let's just wait until the proof is in... ::)
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On the same page above there's this graph.
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There has been no proof that wildfires and global warming have any connection besides in the media. There is more cost of damage because there are more people and more property than before.
Yes, it's all a coincidence. Let's just wait until the proof is in... ::)
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There is no proof only if you keep your head deeply buried in the sand. That won’t prevent burning your ass but at least it keeps you sane while disasters approaches.
If only there was a way to make sure that the cowards remember their cowardice when it is their turn to deal with climate change. Regrettably, expert cowards that ignore the danger now have the perfect mindset to forgive themselves and pretend they bear no responsibility when disaster hits them.
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@mostly_lurking
Your data on area burned is misleading, since modern fire fighting techniques did not begin in California (or elsewhere in the U.S.) until after world war two. Most fires are now contained, bringing down the total area burned. The fires that can't be contained easily are due to extreme conditions making it impossible to do so. The trend clearly shows these increasing from 2000 onwards, so much so that even with the efforts to contain these fires they are becoming the largest fires by size in state history. eg. see sigmetnow's scatterplot.
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M_L, two separate pieces were posted upthread - the one that pmt reposted, and the one sig posted on the unprecedented atmospheric conditions. I would think this should be enough.
In addition, California has been warming significantly, October and November have been less rainy than in the past, I can't post the proofs of that atm but I recommend that you check it out. Climate change doesn't subscribe to political agendas - it just is.
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There has been no proof that wildfires and global warming have any connection besides in the media. There is more cost of damage because there are more people and more property than before.
Yes, it's all a coincidence. Let's just wait until the proof is in... ::)
It is crazy how stupid people are even at a forum like this... we are truly screwed
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There is no proof only if you keep your head deeply buried in the sand. That won’t prevent burning your ass but at least it keeps you sane while disasters approaches.
Here's a little e-collage I made in 2008:
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Yes, the same Oroville Dam that suffered major flood damage last year.
Camp Fire: Oroville Dam officials keep close watch on approaching blaze
OROVILLE, Butte County — The Camp Fire’s relentless push to the south overnight had California officials preparing for the worst Monday at the nation’s tallest dam.
Employees of the state Department of Water Resources, with the help of firefighting crews, were cutting brush and watering down landscapes around Lake Oroville to prevent the 117,000-acre blaze from damaging the reservoir’s infrastructure, including the 770-foot-tall Oroville Dam.
Already, flames had licked a finger on the north side of the giant lake, and construction crews finishing the rebuilding of the reservoir’s spillways after last year’s near-catastrophic fracturing were sent home.
State water officials feared that strong winds from the northeast could blow the fire south to the reservoir’s power plants and water-supply facilities, still some 10 miles away from the blaze.
“We’ve put contingencies in place,” said Erin Mellon, spokeswoman for the Department of Water Resources. “The department will continue to maintain sufficient staffing to monitor the incident around the clock.”
The scare at the lake comes a year and a half after the reservoir’s two major spillways began to erode amid winter storms, causing a precautionary evacuation downstream of nearly 200,000 people.
A $1.1 billion effort to reconstruct the spillways was completed last month and crews have since been doing finishing touches. Mellon said the work stoppage during the fire would not affect the dam’s ability to operate.
The community of Oroville, south of the lake, has not been evacuated, though communities north of the reservoir have been ordered out.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/amp/Camp-Fire-threatens-recently-reconstructed-13384859.php
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CAL FIRE on Twitter: "#WoolseyFire [update] at E St and Alfa Road Rd, south of Simi Valley (Ventura County) is now 96,314 acres and 35% contained. ...
https://twitter.com/CAL_FIRE/status/1062358120666525696
Image below.
Woolsey Fire: Agoura Hills Restaurant Owner Stays Behind to Help Feed Over 1,000 First Responders
https://ktla.com/2018/11/12/woolsey-fire-agoura-hills-restaurant-owner-stays-behind-to-help-feed-over-1000-first-responders/
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CAL FIRE releases map showing status of structures affected by Camp Fire (https://wildfiretoday.com/2018/11/13/cal-fire-releases-map-showing-status-of-structures-affected-by-camp-fire/)
The data is work in progress and not all areas have been surveyed for damage. The information from the field inspections is subject to change. It appears that the data is not restricted to just structures in Paradise, CA.
(https://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/ScreenShot_damageInfo.jpg)
(https://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Legend.jpg)
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Here's a little e-collage I made in 2008:
;D ;D ;D
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Wildfires are likely to continue to outpace recent projections because the underlying global climate models used underestimate precipitation changes in California, including periods of prolonged drought.
California’s Wildfire and Climate Change Warnings Are Still Too Conservative, Scientist Says
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/13112018/california-deadliest-wildfire-climate-change-warnings-firefighting-costs-too-conservative-scientists?
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There has been no proof that wildfires and global warming have any connection besides in the media. There is more cost of damage because there are more people and more property than before.
Yes, it's all a coincidence. Let's just wait until the proof is in... ::)
there is already enough proof and i as well vote to put most weight and energy to communicate clear cases than provide ammunition the the retarded who question anything without proof and catch the vast majority with no own knowledge and opinion.
BTW that is exactly of what trumps followership consists, of a vast number of people who fall for what they want to hear and doubt any facts even those with proof (lying to themselves)
i think it's clear what i want to say, doomsday pictures about things that would happen perhaps less often but still happen even when i new ice age would approach, are not best suited to convince the big REST of the population.
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Michael Mann has been interviewed on BBC World today - but not on BBC's UK output. Here are twitter links. (I don't know how to get direct links to the video.)
Part 1: https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann/status/1062334226132058112
Part 2: https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann/status/1062334792992210944
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Thanks Geoff. Watched, downloaded, re-encoded (slightly compressed) and now uploaded below.
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Thanks Geoff. Watched, downloaded, re-encoded (slightly compressed) and now uploaded below.
Did the Prof say "California - you are screwed" ? I think he did.
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“This is not ‘the new normal,’ this is ‘the new abnormal’.”
Gov. Brown: Mega-fires 'the new abnormal' for California
“This is not the new normal, this is the new abnormal. And this new abnormal will continue certainly in the next 10 to 15 to 20 years. Unfortunately, the best science is telling us that dryness, warmth, drought, all those things, they’re going to intensify,” Brown said. “We have a real challenge here threatening our whole way of life, so we’ve got to pull together.”
http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-california-fires-woolsey-hill-camp-gov-brown-mega-fires-the-new-1541985742-htmlstory.html
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Thanks Geoff. Watched, downloaded, re-encoded (slightly compressed) and now uploaded below.
Did the Prof say "California - you are screwed" ? I think he did.
No but yes.
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US Drought Monitor has had a makeover. https://www.drought.gov/drought/states/california.
Attached is a graph of Cal droughts.
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Thanks Geoff. Watched, downloaded, re-encoded (slightly compressed) and now uploaded below.
Did the Prof say "California - you are screwed" ? I think he did.
Very much sounded like that. California could in theory go for desalination for their water needs, but it's still a very populated country, like some high tech-Spain... Well spain has high speed rail.
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Well spain has high speed rail.
And brick houses that don't work as gigantic tinder. Again it looks like American style houses are a major fire hazard.
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American style houses are a major fire hazard.
American style disastrous CO2 emitting drivers who love 10MPG vehicles, 1-3MPG racing vehicles, drag racers, 0.1MPG(less?) dirt&water-bowl 6000HP mudders, equally powered Tractor Pull events & environmentally calamitous drift racers far out-strip per capita energy consumption, creating heat retarding atmospheric CO2...... & extra wild fires.
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California Professional Firefighters - CPF President Brian Rice Responds to President Attack on CA Fire Response
http://www.cpf.org/go/cpf/news-and-events/news/cpf-president-brian-rice-responds-to-president-attack-on-ca-fire-response/
Videos:
“Aerial video shows fire crews extinguishing a brush fire that sparked along the 118 Freeway in Simi Valley, California, on Monday. Firefighters were able to get the flames under control, preventing the fire from spreading further, according to KABC”
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1062536947065937920
Paradise, CA resident finds his town destroyed after the #CampFire
https://twitter.com/AMHQ/status/1062688392893345793
Twitter thread with photos:
“Here's the crazy story of just one of the many heroes in Paradise, the town destroyed by California's deadliest fire ever. His name is Allyn Pierce, and he's the badass nurse who drove this truck through the flames.”
https://twitter.com/jacknicas/status/1062162154906742784
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California's "Camp Fire" death toll jumps to 48 as lawsuit blames utility
The number of homes burned in the Camp fire in northern California, is 7,600 .... and 200 people are still missing.
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-news/california-fires-camp-woolsey-containment-evacuations-death-toll-2018-11-14-live-updates/
Anyone who doesn't understand that forest fires are made WORSE by a "speeding up of the hydrological cycle" in a warming planet ...... needs to re-visit their high school science books. As temperatures warm, water evaporates more quickly .... thus taking away water from the ground and from plants more quickly than before. The dryer the ground and the plants .... the greater the damage that will happen during forest fires. NOT ROCKET SCIENCE ........ even a finance guy could understand this basic science. ;)
However ..... since I AM a finance guy ..... I understand that SIGNIFICANT $$$$$ are going to be spent NOW and in future years dealing with the OUTCOME of global warming, rather than spending FEWER DOLLARS UPFRONT PREVENTING THE BAD OUTCOME IN THE FIRSTPLACE.
That is why I register and THINK as an Independent .... rather than a Republican .... because the Republican party is NOT FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE. They are owned by the lobbyists. Sorry to interject "politics" here ... but I think it is important for people to realize what REAL FISCAL responsibility is all about. And that some policies that are considered "PROGRESSIVE" ARE ALSO FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE (dealing with global warming and single payor healthcare being just two of them).
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Here's the latest on the devastating #CampFire in Paradise:
- 130,000 acres burned
- 35% contained
- 48 people dead
- 52,000 remain evacuated
- 8,817 structures destroyed, including 7,600 homes
Camp Fire: Death toll grows to 48, Butte County requests National Guard help in search for remains
Lisa Almaguer, communications manager for the Butte County Health Department, said that the evacuation order is in place for a good reason — not only are firefighters still battling the blaze but the fire-ravaged territory is far from safe. There is no power or water or phone service in most of the evacuated precincts.
Well water could be contaminated; ash and soil toxic. Any food left in a refrigerator would be spoiled by now. People attempting to return to their destroyed or damaged properties could encounter collapsed septic tanks, crumbing walls, or be injured by falling limbs or chimneys. Piles of ashes or charred wood that appear to be cool could still contain burning embers. ...
https://www.sfgate.com/california-wildfires/article/Camp-Fire-grows-to-130-000-acres-35-percent-13389817.php
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Sig
Any ideas on why they are warning of collapsing septic tanks?
These are a minimum of 18" below grade, are generally made of concrete and are filled with water.
Those returning after the fire don't need to be distracted by such unwarranted fears.
Terry
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Terry , I thought the tone of the warning was alarmist but we do use plastic septic tanks and you are told when they put them in to not drive on them.
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Terry , I thought the tone of the warning was alarmist but we do use plastic septic tanks and you are told when they put them in to not drive on them.
Plastic melts when it is hot. Maybe water pipes have burst as well. Raw sewage may be underfoot and not good if your footwear isn't so good. It happened to me in a third world country (inspecting the open sewers in a very low-income area) and damn near killed me. Bugs are democrats, rich or poor makes no difference to them.
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A relief center in California recognized its susceptibility to losing grid power due to wildfires, and installed a micro-grid of solar and batteries, with a diesel backup.
Direct Relief, a nonprofit organization with the goal to “help people affected by poverty or in emergency situations”, says that its Santa Barbara-based pharmaceutical warehouse “can never afford to lose power.” It’s why they contracted Tesla to deploy a microgrid at the location to keep it running in case of a disaster.
The warehouse stores emergency supply in case of disasters like earthquakes and wildfires, yet, the organization admits that it is itself vulnerable to disasters.
They wrote in a blog post today:
“Geographically isolated Santa Barbara is connected to the world by a thin thread. Nearly all its electricity comes via a single pair of power lines coming in through remote, wildfire-prone terrain. If that pair is cut by fire or earthquake or preventatively shut off during high winds—or if the power grid is crippled by a natural disaster—Santa Barbara could go dark.”
Power is essential since they need to constantly maintain a cold temperature between 36- and 41-degrees Fahrenheit in order to store some medicine. ...
https://electrek.co/2018/11/14/tesla-microgrid-direct-relief-emergency-supply-warehouse-disaster/
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This is what climate refugees look like ...
Refugee camps for fire survivors? Butte County on ‘edge’ of humanitarian crisis after Camp Fire
http://amp.sacbee.com/news/state/california/fires/article221594715.html
A Wal-Mart parking lot has become a de facto refugee camp as those who have lost everything seek the most basic of necessities: a place to be.
... Local officials warned the destruction from the Camp Fire could set off a wave of refugee migration akin to a smaller version of the Dust Bowl of the 1930s.
“Big picture, we have 6,000, possibly 7,000 households who have been displaced and who realistically don’t stand a chance of finding housing again in Butte County,” said Ed Mayer, the executive director of the county’s housing agency. “I don’t even know if these households can be absorbed in California.”
... “We could make the choice to put them in temporary (shelters) to try to absorb those households for three to five years, meaning refugee camps and trying to keep our community together. That’s one choice,” ... “The other choice is we say, ‘We can’t do it, we don’t have the ability (to find shelters) and go fend for yourselves.’”
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A relief center in California recognized its susceptibility to losing grid power due to wildfires, and installed a micro-grid of solar and batteries, with a diesel backup.
Out-frigging-standing.
I hope they take full advantage of the concept of efficiency as the first fuel. The diesel generator should only work at optimum RPM. No need to throttle. 100% of the power it produces at it's most efficient RPM's should be used to charge the batteries and then shutdown. The batteries should dispatch power only as needed. No need to over generate power to provide for demand spikes
I hope the facility develops an SOP to operate in a sort of "low power mode" when running on backup power. A state of minimum energy consumption could be achieved by things like turning unused lights off, unused equipment and keeping high awareness among the staff and patients of the low power conditions.
If all emergency facilities were energy independent climate change will have a much tougher time killing us.
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Firefighters battled 500 fires in 30 days, a new all time high i think.
https://www.news8000.com/news/national-news/california-braces-for-more-wildfire-casualties/863384147
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Factcheck: How Global Warming Has Increased US Wildfires
https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-global-warming-has-increased-us-wildfires
Recently, some commentators have tried to dismiss recent increases in the areas burnt by fires in the US, claiming that fires were much worse in the early part of the century. To do this, they are ignoring clear guidance by scientists that the data should not be used to make comparisons with earlier periods.
... According to data from the NIFC, there has been a clear trend in increased area burned by wildfires in the US since the 1980s, when reliable US-wide estimates based on fire situation reports from federal and state agencies became available.
Today, wildfires are burning more than twice the area than in the 1980s and 1990s. These figures include all wildland fires in both forested and non-forested areas. Most of the area burned today is in the western US, where dryer conditions tend to allow for large, quickly-spreading wildfires.
The NIFC explicitly warns users on its website: “Prior to 1983, sources of these figures are not known, or cannot be confirmed, and were not derived from the current situation reporting process. As a result, the figures prior to 1983 should not be compared to later data.”
Those sceptical about the role of climate change in the recent increase in fires have pointed to the full dataset, trying to argue that the fire area has decreased by around 80% over the past century.
This is not an accurate comparison, according to Randy Eardley, a spokesman at the NIFC.
... To try and compare any of the more modern data to that earlier data is not accurate or appropriate, because we didn’t have a good way to measure [earlier data]. Back then we didn’t have a reliable reporting system; for all I know those came from a variety of different sources that often double-counted figures. When you look at some of those years that add up to 60 or 70 million acres burned a lot of those acres have to be double counted two or three times. We didn’t have a system to estimate area burned until 1960, but it was really refined in 1983.
If 50m acres had actually burned in the early 20th century, it would amount to an area of land equal to the entire state of Nebraska going up in flames every year.
(https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/annual-wildland-acres-burned.png)
Eardley suggests that earlier records were inflated by including areas where fires were purposefully set to clear forests for agriculture, or where rangelands were torched to get rid of sagebrush to improve grazing conditions. Other federal reports suggest that most of the area burned between 1930 and 1950 was in southeastern US and were primarily intentionally set fires for clearing land.
While the early 20th century data is not reliable and likely double or even triple-counted actual fires, Eardley says that it is possible that fire extents were higher back then for a simple reason: there was no large-scale firefighting organisation in the first half of the 20th century. Therefore, fires would burn through larger areas before being extinguished or burning themselves out, particularly when they were not close to towns or settlements.
There has been no proof that wildfires and global warming have any connection besides in the media...
It's revealing that mostly_lurking used disingenuous graphics (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=1368.0;attach=111437;image) from WhatUpWithThat to support his global warming denial.
<snip, I believe you, no need to link to that s**thole; N>
Watts, et.al (and apparently mostly_lurking) deliberately misrepresented data (https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_stats_totalFires.html) from the US National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) and ignored the database warning:
... Prior to 1983, sources of these figures are not known, or cannot be confirmed, and were not derived from the current situation reporting process. As a result the figures prior to 1983 should not be compared to later data.
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Thanks (as always), vox. I had a feeling that I had seen those doctored and intentionally mis-representing graphs from other denialists and pseudo-sceptics on other sites. Thanks for doing the extra work of actually tracking them down.
I had the impression that this was one place we wouldn't have to put up with non-stop trolling from WUWT enthusiasts. Sadly, some still seem to squeak through. Apparently they've learned that all they have to do is mouth approval of some of the head moderators pet favorite sites (Dore, etc) and positions, and then they can get away with all sorts of crap not usually allowed here.
On another note, I was a bit surprised that this now-fairly-common denialist trope has not yet made it into the "Most Used Climate Myths" over at Skeptical Science (unless I missed it).
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It's revealing that mostly_lurking used disingenuous graphics (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=1368.0;attach=111437;image) from WhatUpWithThat (https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/09/19/the-new-normal-for-western-forest-fires-not-necessarily/) to support his global warming denial.
<snip, I believe you, no need to link to that s**thole; N>
Watts, et.al (and apparently mostly_lurking) deliberately misrepresented data (https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_stats_totalFires.html) from the US National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) and ignored the database warning:
Oh, really? I wasn't aware of that. If mostly-lurking does it again, he's out of here. If you can't find graphs or arguments from reputable sources, and only from a source like WUWT, there's a 99.9% chance it's BS. Don't link to that stuff here, ever.
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On another note, I was a bit surprised that this now-fairly-common denialist trope has not yet made it into the "Most Used Climate Myths" over at Skeptical Science (unless I missed it).
Just to make sure I registered with Skeptical Science and added a comment all about it to their article from Yale (with a credit to ASIF) and the suggestion it needed adding to the myths list.
mostly_lurking did a service really - provoked the research and the rebuttal and got me energized enough to send the message on.
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If mostly-lurking does it again, he's out of here.
It's not the first time that mostly_lurking has posted WUWT propaganda on this forum. In fact, you've already given him a final warning before:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2278.msg169292.html#msg169292
<Thanks, I had forgotten about that, he's banned now; N.>
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The Camp and Woolsey Fires have burned more than 9,000 structures (https://wildfiretoday.com/2018/11/15/the-camp-and-woolsey-fires-have-burned-more-than-9000-structures/)
The death toll increases to a total of 59 for the two fires in California.
About 460 workers and 22 cadaver dogs are assessing the path that the Camp Fire took as it devastated the town of Paradise in Northern California on November 8. The estimated number of homes destroyed in the blaze is fluid and keeps rising, reaching 8,756 Thursday morning with another 260 commercial structures destroyed. The fatalities the crews have discovered has risen to 56, with 130 people still unaccounted for.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5306cc8cf38c4252830a38d467d33728&extent=-13547810.5486%2C4824920.1673%2C-13518764.4778%2C4841526.1117%2C102100
California’s Deadliest Wildfire is Also a Massive Air-Quality Problem
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2018/11/15/californias-deadliest-wildfire-is-also-massive-air-quality-problem/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.26370735d706
(https://cdns.abclocal.go.com/three/kgo/weather/maps/air_quality_bay_area.jpg)
Wildfire smoke, thick with soot and other particles, sent the air quality plummeting in the Bay Area to the “very unhealthy” level — the second-lowest rating, just above “hazardous” — in the week since the Camp Fire started, said Bay Area Air Quality Management District spokesman Walter Wallace. By midday Wednesday, the air-quality advisory for the Bay Region had improved slightly to the “unhealthy” level.
Smoke pours into Bay Area, air quality as unhealthy as Beijing
Air quality in Portland 'unhealthy for sensitive groups'
RealTime Air Quality Map: https://airnow.gov/state/CA/index.cfm https://airnow.gov/
Chico, Sacramento (https://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_city&cityid=327), Yuba City (https://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_city&cityid=296), CA air-quality like New Delhi (https://aqicn.org/city/india/new-delhi/us-embassy/)
(https://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/SmokeForecast6pmPST_11-13-2018.jpg)
NOAA’s forecast for the distribution of wildfire smoke at 6 p.m. PST November 13, 2018. Much of Central and Northern California has severely compromised air quality and is in the “unhealthy” category.
https://wildfiretoday.com/2018/11/13/wildfire-smoke-and-air-quality-maps-november-13-2018/
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Neven said: "
<Thanks, I had forgotten about that, he's banned now; N.>"
Thanks...and may I say, respectfully--Finally! :)
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600+ unaccounted for, nearly 12,000 structures destroyed in the Camp Fire.
The death toll from the devastating Camp fire jumped to 63 on Thursday as search crews recovered seven more bodies in the burn area.
The number of people unaccounted for jumped dramatically to 631 people, up from 130 on Wednesday evening.
https://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-california-fires-woolsey-hill-camp-camp-fire-death-toll-climbs-to-xxx-1542330098-htmlstory.html
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A time-series of total fires or acres burned is difficult. Fire fighting techniques, technology have advanced a lot. Not to mention most starts are human related. The way to look at is the fuels: ERCs, BIs, 1000-hours etc.
Increasing evaporative demand, migrating snowpack, pest proliferation, tree mortality all are enhanced by warming. Camp Fire had fuel levels never before seen this late in the season. Regardless of if PG&E’s line started it, AGW has had a significant effect on fuels.
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What's up with that Santa Susana Field Lab now? Folks are sharing a Russia Today story (won't click nor link) and the Cosmopolitan reports about Kardashians (who's that?) living nearby. Google in Germany gives no serious sources. Anything?
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This seems to be the thread to follow
https://www.twitter.com/bradleysa
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What's up with that Santa Susana Field Lab now? Folks are sharing a Russia Today story (won't click nor link) and the Cosmopolitan reports about Kardashians (who's that?) living nearby. Google in Germany gives no serious sources. Anything?
Has anyone, will anyone, take samples of this contaminated air and find out what are the levels of contaminants (including any ooh-nasties from the "Contaminated Santa Susana Field Laboratory, Close to Site of Partial Meltdown" ?( e.g. The Physicians for Social Responsibility - Los Angeles.,)
Attached is a map of contaminants found in the soil - at offsite locations. (from the tweets)
Statement by Physicians for Social Responsibility - Los Angeles (@PSRLA)
🔎 https://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2018/11/12/18819057.php …
The California Dept. of Toxic Substances Control (DTSC), which has regulatory oversight over the parties responsible for cleaning up the contamination – the Dept. of Energy, NASA, and the Boeing Company – signed legally binding agreements to fully cleanup the contamination by 2017. However, the cleanup has not even begun and DTSC is considering vastly weaker cleanup plans. “If DTSC and those responsible for polluting SSFL had not broken their cleanup commitments, we wouldn’t be facing the prospect of contamination now being driven off site by the fire,” said Duffield.
“The Woolsey Fire likely released and spread radiological and chemical contamination that was in SSFL’s soil and vegetation via smoke and ash,” said Dr. Bob Dodge, President of Physicians for Social Responsibility-Los Angeles. “All wildfire smoke can be hazardous to health, but if SSFL had been cleaned up long ago as DTSC promised, we’d at least not have to worry about exposure to dangerous radionuclides and chemicals as well.”
A statement released by DTSC approximately 10 hours after the fire began said the agency doesn’t believe the fire caused the release of hazardous substances. Mohsen Nazemi, Deputy Director for DTSC’s Brownfields & Environmental Restoration Program, participated in a community meeting Sunday night in Woodland Hills, repeating the same unfounded denials and leaving without taking questions.
“We’ve learned not to trust anything DTSC says, so we’re demanding independent testing and air monitoring for radiation and chemicals from SSFL,” said Melissa Bumstead, a West Hills resident whose daughter has twice survived leukemia that she believes was caused by SSFL. Bumstead’s Change.org petition urging that SSFL cleanup commitments be upheld has been signed by over 430,000 people. “DTSC has made one broken promise after another, and it wasn’t truthful about SSFL’s contamination long before the fire started.” said Bumstead. “Why would we believe DTSC’s statement that the fire caused no additional risk, when they know they’re the ones responsible for SSFL still being contaminated in the first place?”
Marie Mason, Simi Valley resident and co-founder of the Rocketdyne Cleanup Coalition, agrees. “We’re outraged that after all these years, decades of foot-dragging by DTSC, an agency that is captured by polluters, may have resulted in even more toxic exposures. We’ve always worried about a fire at SSFL, and now a massive wildfire has started on site itself. SSFL could have and should have been cleaned up a long time ago.”
PSR-LA’s Duffield said, “While we must await the final investigation of the cause of the fire, the presently available evidence indicates it appears to have begun on the Santa Susana Field Lab, and the failure to clean it up has significantly increased risks to the public nearby.”
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Aww how cute of them to refer Pu-238 numbers compared to background levels. Cs-137 is another one, they must've measured the backgrounds right after cessation of atmospheric nuke tests.
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EPA's RadNet doesn't show any extreme spikes (... then again, the EPA said the air around the World Trade Center/ 911 was healthy as mother's milk (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/10/epa-head-wrong-911-air-safe-new-york-christine-todd-whitman))
Though there seems to be a slight uptick in background around the time of the fire (due to smoke?)
https://www.epa.gov/radnet/near-real-time-and-laboratory-data-state#CA
(https://www3.epa.gov/radnet00/images/gammasum/sanfrancisco-gammasum.jpg)
Note: scale is semi-log
(https://www3.epa.gov/radnet00/images/beta-gamma/losangeles-gamma.jpg)
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Though there seems to be a slight uptick in background around the time of the fire (due to smoke?)
I bet it's due to the smoke. Heavy metals and radionuclides accumulate in tree bark and soil funghi.
(That's why I always cut the bark from my fire wood, to minimize contamination of my garden compost from my ashes.)
To check this theory, mercury data would be good.
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A relief center in California recognized its susceptibility to losing grid power due to wildfires, and installed a micro-grid of solar and batteries, with a diesel backup.
Out-frigging-standing.
I hope they take full advantage of the concept of efficiency as the first fuel. The diesel generator should only work at optimum RPM. No need to throttle. 100% of the power it produces at it's most efficient RPM's should be used to charge the batteries and then shutdown. The batteries should dispatch power only as needed. No need to over generate power to provide for demand spikes
I hope the facility develops an SOP to operate in a sort of "low power mode" when running on backup power. A state of minimum energy consumption could be achieved by things like turning unused lights off, unused equipment and keeping high awareness among the staff and patients of the low power conditions.
If all emergency facilities were energy independent climate change will have a much tougher time killing us.
Looks like there is lots of efficiency logic built into the system:
”...The system is run by Tesla’s smart software that is able to seamlessly switch between power sources as conditions change and send excess solar power back into the grid for others to use.”
They say that they got the idea after they worked with Tesla to restore power at key health facilities in Puerto Rico, where they lost an estimated 80 percent of the island’s vaccines and other medicines that require refrigeration after the hurricanes destroyed the electric grid last year.
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The bizarre and frightening conditions that sparked the Camp Fire
https://grist.org/article/the-bizarre-and-frightening-conditions-that-sparked-the-camp-fire/
Article has lots of links.
Carl Quintanilla on Twitter: A burned neighborhood in #ParadiseFire: (via @NBCNews)
https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1063249673669013510
Image below.
Brian L Kahn on Twitter: "Satellite imagery from before and after the Camp Fire is just horrifying
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/1062738175813148672
GIF at the link.
Camp Fire evacuees in Walmart tent city told to leave
http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/article221747730.html
Deadly Camp Fire sparks new lawsuit against California utility
https://grist.org/article/deadly-camp-fire-sparks-new-lawsuit-against-california-utility/
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Smoke From Camp Fire Making Sacramento the Most Polluted City on Earth
by Dr. Jeff Masters
Smoke from California’s Camp Fire has settled into Central California’s valleys and cities and refuses to leave, like a bad case of bronchitis one simply can’t shake. On Friday, the pollution became so severe that all schools in the San Francisco Bay area were closed, including area colleges, and the city’s iconic cable cars were taken out of service. The state capitol, Sacramento, also closed all of its schools. This is a rare and extremely dangerous air pollution episode, and I’m not familiar with a case where a major U.S. city shut down all of its schools for wildfire smoke. A Berkeley Earth website that tracks global pollution levels has consistenly shown Sacramento, California as having the worst air pollution for any major city on Earth over the past day, beating out the big cities in India and China that usually hold that position.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Smoke-Camp-Fire-Making-Sacramento-Most-Polluted-City-Earth
Lizzie Johnson on Twitter: "Breathing the air in San Francisco today is the equivalent of smoking 11.5 cigarettes. And in Paradise, it's closer to 22 cigarettes. #CampFire"
https://twitter.com/lizziejohnsonnn/status/1063495963887595520
Xiao Ma (@xiaoma) 11/16/18, 1:31 AM
AQI in perspecitives: San Francisco, Beijing, and Delhi.
https://twitter.com/xiaoma/status/1063318703113035776
Graphs below.
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Anyone else anticipating that life expectancy in the USA will be dropping a little further this year?
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Image below.
What a perspective! :o Is it beautiful or harrowing?
Looks like the trees will survive the house fires. Amazing. And those houses burn really hot.
(As I said already: American houses are a fire hazard. One wooden thing right next to the other. American suburbia looks suicidally stupid to me. It's not just in CA. Also seen in Arizona in the desert...)
A completely different housing crisis now. :'(
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P.S.: Looks more like a trailer park?
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If there is a silver lining, there's an opportunity here to do a really good job rebuilding communities according to better plans and standards. Absolutely insane to rebuild the same way in the same places. No more three car garages!
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Image below.
What a perspective! :o Is it beautiful or harrowing?
Looks like the trees will survive the house fires. Amazing. And those houses burn really hot.
(As I said already: American houses are a fire hazard. One wooden thing right next to the other. American suburbia looks suicidally stupid to me. It's not just in CA. Also seen in Arizona in the desert...)
A completely different housing crisis now. :'(
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P.S.: Looks more like a trailer park?
Most of the trees are burned to death, it’s difficult to tell from the photo. Trees continue to burn inside even when the outside looks cool.
Yes, I believe this is from a mobile home park. Keep in mind that land is very expensive in California, so most people cannot afford spacious grounds.
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Brianna Sacks (@bri_sacks)
11/16/18, 9:47 PM
Officials have been using dental records and fingerprints to identify #campfire victims, but they’re now going to utilize this rapid DNA machine and are asking parents and children of missing people to go to the Chico Sears and submit a mouth swab
https://twitter.com/bri_sacks/status/1063624718488494080
Extensive Thread. 30 sec vid at the link describing the rapid DNA machine.
Nothing Can Prepare The People Who Have To Search For Charred Bodies After The California Wildfires
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/briannasacks/search-rescue-california-wildfire-victims
Umair Irfan on Twitter: "THREAD - I spent the past few days in Northern California reporting on the #CampFire. I wrote a couple articles on the human impacts of this disaster, which is now the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in state history. ...”
https://twitter.com/umairfan/status/1063554601633214465
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As the possibly only Finn here, it is perhaps for me to say that Trumps' side-mouthed gargle about finnish forestry is quite inaccurate.
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What's up with that Santa Susana Field Lab now? Folks are sharing a Russia Today story (won't click nor link) and the Cosmopolitan reports about Kardashians (who's that?) living nearby. Google in Germany gives no serious sources. Anything?
A rather aged report from 2016 provides some history of the Santa Susana Field Laboratory.
https://www.rt.com/usa/341636-us-nuclear-workers-compensation/
I'd not been aware of the 1959 problems that were kept under wraps for so long, even though my wife was working for the EPA in Nevada in the early 60's.
OT, but the last of her field supervisors died (of cancer) in 2004. The nuclear test facilities must have saved $Millions in pensions over the years. :-X
Terry
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As the possibly only Finn here, it is perhaps for me to say that Trumps' side-mouthed gargle about finnish forestry is quite inaccurate.
Good to know. We were apparently supposed to think all Finns were out “raking up the forest.” ::)
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Evacuation plan 'out the window' when fire hit California town
When a “megafire” engulfed Paradise, California, officials and residents had to abandon their evacuation plans and improvise new ways to save lives, learning lessons that could help the growing number of U.S. communities at risk to wildfires. ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-california-wildfires-evacuation/evacuation-plan-out-the-window-when-fire-hit-california-town-idUSKCN1NM0G5
Southern California:
Why California Authorities Are Sharing This Terrifying Video of a Woman Escaping a Wildfire
http://time.com/5454126/la-sheriffs-shares-video-malibu-fire-escape/
California searches for 1,000 missing in its deadliest fire
Forensic recovery teams pressed their search for more victims in the flame-ravaged northern California town of Paradise on Friday as authorities sought clues to the fate of about 1,000 people reported missing in the state’s deadliest wildfire on record.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-california-wildfires/california-searches-for-1000-missing-in-its-deadliest-fire-idUSKCN1NL1CH
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Editorial: Camp Fire, the tragedy we were all warned about – Chico Enterprise-Record
“Nobody would have ever thought this could happen,” President Donald Trump said while touring the Camp Fire devastation Saturday.
That’s not true. The Camp Fire was inevitable. It is the event that so many dreaded for so long.
People prepared. Fire prevention officials planned. They drilled. They worked with homeowners. They invented fire-safe councils and Fire on the Ridge and sent fire prevention officials to schools via a program called Fire Pals. They raised money to keep fire lookouts open when the state said it wouldn’t.
Eventually, geography and topography proved to be the trap everyone thought it was. ...
https://www.chicoer.com/2018/11/17/editorial-camp-fire-the-tragedy-we-were-all-warned-about/
Friends of Science (@FriendsOScience)
11/18/18, 12:28 AM
Very brave editorial. Everyone wants to blame #climatechange instead of addressing this tragic reality. Ppl must learn from it. #Tragedy
https://twitter.com/friendsoscience/status/1064027432796139520
Photos, text image, article and fire prevention information at the link.
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No Way Out! ...
Satellite imagery of Camp Fire seven hours after it started
https://wildfiretoday.com/2018/11/16/satellite-imagery-of-camp-fire-seven-hours-after-it-started/
Deer Creek Resources of Chico, California has produced four images that show the Camp Fire about seven hours after it started near Pulga, California on November 8, 2018. Zeke Lunder used data from LANDSAT 8 with the infrared heat layer to map the location of the fire at 1:10 p.m. PST. By that time it was burning thousands of homes in Paradise.
https://twitter.com/DeerCreekGIS/status/1063125888269570051
We used LANDSAT 8 imagery to create these infrared visualizations of the initial push of the #campfire. @CAL_FIRE @usfs_psw @R5_Fire_News
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DsD7WTEVsAAU7Gx.jpg:large)
Individual homes in flames
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DsD7WTFUUAA3k7p.jpg:large)
Escape Route Skyway Blvd: In flames
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DsD7WTEUcAA_Scg.jpg:large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DsD7WTFU0AAsu8E.jpg:large)
Paradise in flames!
On Saturday, Cal Fire officials went house-to-house inspecting damage. Search-and-rescue teams, clad in white hazmat jumpsuits and yellow helmets, drew crosses with orange spray paint in front of residences and on cars. Vehicles were also adorned with yellow and pink flags to indicate those surveyed for survivors and the deceased.
“Lots of people died in their cars,” said a Cal Fire worker.
(https://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/CampFireProgMap_11-18-900x756.jpg)
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A power line malfunctioned shortly before the fire was first reported. Evacuation notices came late, if at all. The town escape routes turned into traffic jams as the fire popped tires and melted steering wheels.
California fire: What started as a tiny brush fire became the state’s deadliest wildfire. Here is the story of how Paradise burned.
http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-camp-fire-tictoc-20181118-story.html
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As the possibly only Finn here, it is perhaps for me to say that Trumps' side-mouthed gargle about finnish forestry is quite inaccurate.
No you're not Pmt, but here's Rohdes take on that nonsense:
https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1064073322089074688 (https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1064073322089074688)
And, of course, it is easy to compare Finland and California because they have very similar climates.
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Peter Kalmus:
https://twitter.com/ClimateHuman/status/1064207182260883456 (https://twitter.com/ClimateHuman/status/1064207182260883456)
Listening to @NPR @KPCC this Sunday morning. Lots of emotional coverage of fires. No mention of climate. Par.
And then just now: "Good news at the gas pump..."
People, it's fossil fuel. That cheap gas is warming the planet, which is causing the deadly fires. What will it take?
Well, Californian gas prices are certainly not similar to ours.
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Lizzie Johnson is an important Paradise Fire storyteller, reporting for the San Francisco Chronicle.
A fire, a newborn baby and a pact: Tales of survival from Paradise
https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/article/A-fire-a-newborn-baby-and-a-pact-Tales-of-13402034.php
After Camp Fire, cops patrol a ruined Paradise: ‘There’s really no one to watch over’
https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/article/In-Paradise-police-adjust-to-roles-as-both-13393413.php
Paradise Town Council meets, shattered by fire’s devastation but doing its duty
https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/article/Paradise-Town-Council-s-agenda-road-projects-13390335.php
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Camp Fire: Walmart parking-lot refuge closed as weather worsens
Officials shut down the tent city on Sunday, citing safety reasons over temperatures in the 30s, rain in the forecast and the need to connect to services at the official shelters.
Yet there were still hundreds of Camp Fire evacuees in the Walmart parking lot and the adjacent field as of Sunday night.
...
Federal Emergency Management Agency administrator Brock Long said rebuilding homes in Paradise is not the first thing that needs to be done in the community.
Much of the infrastructure in the town was destroyed by the fire and will need to be rebuilt first, he said.
Debris left from the fire needs to be removed before homes and businesses can be rebuilt, he said.
“It’s a new normal. You’re not going to be able to rebuild Paradise the way it was,” Long said. “It’s one of the worst disasters I’ve seen in my career.”
https://www.redding.com/story/news/2018/11/15/camp-fire-evacuees-walmart-parking-lot-new-crisis-brewing/2020250002/
Latest stats on the Camp Fire:
Acres Burned - Containment: 151,000 acres - 66% contained
Structures Threatened: 14,500
Structures Destroyed: 11,713 residences, 472 commercial and 3,388 other buildings
http://www.fire.ca.gov/current_incidents/incidentdetails/Index/2277
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VCFD PIO: "#Woolseyfire is now 94% contained and 95,949 acres. The firefighters are working diligently to get full containment. We are expecting full containment on 11/22/18. ...”
https://twitter.com/VCFD_PIO/status/1064553239503233024
1,500 structures burned. Updated report at the link.
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Significant rain in the forecast for southern California. Los Angeles County has readied dozens of sandbag distribution sites for people to prepare for flooding and mud flows from the burn scar area.
LACounty Fire PIO (@LACoFDPIO)
11/20/18, 8:03 PM
#WoolseyFire *INFO* to help residents prepare for the coming rain we’ve put together a comprehensive list of sandbag distribution sites in both #LACounty and #VenturaCounty.
https://twitter.com/lacofdpio/status/1065047928622858240
Text image at the link.
NWS QPF image below.
Edit: here’s the NWS warning:
NWS (@NWS) 11/20/18, 7:49 PM
Multiple rounds of heavy rain and mountain snow are forecast for the West from Wednesday through #Thanksgiving into Friday. There is an elevated concern for flash flooding, mudslides and debris flows near wildfire burn scars in #California. See weather.gov for more.
https://twitter.com/nws/status/1065044372301983744
Precip maps at the link.
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More trouble in Paradise: Camp Fire region braces for floods and mudslides
Northern California faces a new threat in the aftermath of the disastrous Camp Fire: Weather forecasters are growing more confident that downpours, which could bring flash floods and mudslides, are headed for the fragile, scorched terrain.
On Monday night, the National Weather Service issued flash-flood watches for recent burn areas, in preparation for a series of heavy rainfall events arriving between Wednesday and Friday.
The forecast prompted an escalation of ongoing search and recovery efforts in Paradise, with fears that the rains could wash away the remains of fire victims, reducing the chances of families of the hundreds of residents still listed as missing finding closure.
Kory Honea, the sheriff of Butte County, told the Associated Press that the looming rains means that it’s within the “realm of possibility” that officials might never be able to determine the fire’s exact death toll.
...
Current forecasts call for as much as six inches of rain near Paradise — about as much as the region gets in an average November — arriving in the span of just a few days. That kind of a deluge would not only frustrate recovery efforts, but it could also spawn mudslides and flash floods by turning the newly barren soil into a roiling, debris-filled torrent. That the still-burning fire that started this whole mess could be extinguished in the process is almost an afterthought. ...
https://grist.org/article/more-trouble-in-paradise-camp-fire-region-braces-for-floods-and-mudslides/
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Airbnb hosts offer free housing to evacuees displaced by California wildfires
With California’s recent cluster of devastating wildfires destroying homes and claiming lives, Airbnb is offering some shelter to displaced residents in its home state. This week, the company added free housing listings to serve evacuees affected by the Hill and Woolsey Fires outside Los Angeles and the Camp Fire in northern California.
The free Airbnb housing is currently available through November 29, 2018 for both displaced residents and relief workers helping out with recovery. The Camp Fire area shows as many as 700 participating homes in the area and the Hill and Woolsey fire areas show more than 1,400. ...
https://techcrunch.com/2018/11/14/airbnb-hosts-offer-free-housing-to-evacuees-displaced-by-california-wildfires/
Garance Franke-Ruta (@thegarance)
11/20/18, 9:06 AM
This is nuts. Where is FEMA? // With disease in shelters and hotels at capacity, wildfire evacuees desperately seek refuge
https://twitter.com/thegarance/status/1064882630984982533
Link to WaPo article at the link.
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Further to what Sigmetnow wrote yesterday, here is the NOAA Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml) for Nov. 21-24 (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif?1542830125179) (times/dates on chart are GMT, so you have to subtract 8 hours to get local time). The brown color is 7-10 inches or ~180-250 mm. Paradise, California (and Camp Fire location) approximately circled.
National Weather Service 2-day forecast (https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w3u=1&w5=pop&w7=rain&w13u=0&w15u=1&AheadHour=0&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=39.7508&textField2=-121.6077&site=all&unit=0&dd=&bw=) for Paradise itself.
Actual accumulation in "Garbo Gap" which is about 5 mi (8 km) east of Paradise (as best I can tell), per NWS (https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sto&sid=JBGC1&num=72&raw=0) (0.20" or 5 mm so far)
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Dave Toussaint: "#CampFire UPDATE 11/21 - - 83 fatalities, 59 identified, 563 missing. - 18,431 structures destroyed (residential/commercial combined) - 153,336.acres burned, 85% containment"
https://twitter.com/engineco16/status/1065435761275617280
1,643 structures destroyed.
LACounty Fire PIO: "#WoolseyFire *UPDATE* Incident Fact Sheet for Wednesday evening November 21st: 96,949 and 100% contained. ...”
https://twitter.com/LACoFDPIO/status/1065433681857114112
Report at the link.
The burn scar from California's Woolsey Fire is visible from space
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1065432463076409344
Image below.
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Rain update for Pleasure, I mean, Paradise. Rain since the fire: 2.45" (62 mm) with 1.6" more predicted today, per the National Weather Service (https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Paradise&state=CA&site=STO&textField1=39.7597&textField2=-121.621&e=1) (3-day history (https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sto&sid=JBGC1&num=72&raw=0) and hourly forecasts (https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.7597&lon=-121.621&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical))
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Rain update for Pleasure, I mean, Paradise. Rain since the fire: 2.45" (62 mm) with 1.6" more predicted today, per the National Weather Service (https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Paradise&state=CA&site=STO&textField1=39.7597&textField2=-121.621&e=1) (3-day history (https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sto&sid=JBGC1&num=72&raw=0) and hourly forecasts (https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.7597&lon=-121.621&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical))
And now the soil gets washed away. Not good. A recipe for desertification. No soil, no water. And it will get even hotter: Less plants, less cooling by evapotranspiration. Forget California :(
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Forget California :(
The climate vice may squeeze but I wouldn't write us off. As with acidification , adapt, adapt.
Almost anyone could survive a forest fire with a good sealed root cellar and a full scuba bottle.
I really believe individual adaptation is far more useful than political activism. Nature , the mother of invention, and all that.
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"The rain is over. The rain is over. The rain is over and gone." (Sacred Harp song: last words in the Rose of Sharon (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9t3DKs1cQ8) anthem.)
Rain total since fire: 3.01 inches (76mm)
Rain update for Pleasure, I mean, Paradise. Rain since the fire: 2.45" (62 mm) with 1.6" more predicted today, per the National Weather Service (https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Paradise&state=CA&site=STO&textField1=39.7597&textField2=-121.621&e=1) (3-day history (https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sto&sid=JBGC1&num=72&raw=0) and hourly forecasts (https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.7597&lon=-121.621&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical))
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Quite cheered me up to read that, Bruce!
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Well it was Thanksgiving , We had a grand meal ,apple pie , the lard crust was close to perfect. It's Calif. and we still have the last of the seasons tomatoes on the porch. No I believe the Pacific will continue to moderate temperatures , at least locally . Yes it is likely continue to dry ... the squeeze of the vise, but I also believe we will on occasion get Big El Niño floods. Perched here on the edge of the continent , as far as we could push west.
I think some times of England where I spent a few years of my youth. I think England has changed more , but it has been sixty years from my last visit.
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Dave Toussaint (@engineco16)
11/24/18, 11:11 PM
#Update #CampFire 11/24
- 87 fatalities, 475 missing
- 153336 acres 98% contained
- 13954 single/multi family homes destroyed
- 514 commercial buildings destroyed
- 4265 other structures destroyed
- Total of 18733 structures destroyed
- 570 structures damaged
https://twitter.com/engineco16/status/1066544988232679424
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Dave Toussaint (@engineco16)
11/24/18, 11:11 PM
#Update #CampFire 11/24
- 87 fatalities, 475 missing
- 153336 acres 98% contained
- 13954 single/multi family homes destroyed
- 514 commercial buildings destroyed
- 4265 other structures destroyed
- Total of 18733 structures destroyed
- 570 structures damaged
https://twitter.com/engineco16/status/1066544988232679424
The persistently high missing number is what concerns me. You would think that family members and friends would have been able to reach each other by now.
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San Francisco Chronicle (https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/article/Firefighters-close-in-on-full-containment-of-13418233.php)
on the Camp Fire
...
The rain that moved into Northern California on Wednesday doused the flames and helped firefighters gain more control of the blaze. Officials were concerned that heavy rain could cause mudslides and debris flows in the burn scar areas of Paradise and Magalia.
There were no reports of any slides. And that’s because the rain was steady but not too intense, said Bill Rasch, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.
“We just got really lucky,” Rasch said. “The rain came down at a slow enough pace and hit the sweet spot — steady rain, not a lot of impact.”
The town of Paradise has received 3.22 inches of rain, Concow had close to 5 inches and Magalia has recorded 5.41 inches, according to the National Weather Service.
...
I concur that the large number of (remaining) missing persons is troubling. A large death toll, unfortunately, is what I expected when I read the fire was advancing 80 acres (32 ha) per minute (https://earther.gizmodo.com/explosive-northern-california-is-consuming-80-acres-of-1830318601) on Nov. 8.
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Considering that the town was a favorite spot for many elderly and disabled people, the geography, the speed of the fire, the lack of sufficient escape routes, the quick loss of electricity and cell reception, I think the death toll could have been yet much higher were it not for lots of local heroism and some luck.
What amazes me is that it is still burning. The rain was certainly a welcome development - hopefully fire season in California is over for the year.
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“An unstable utility grid will drive up costs and is bad for consumers. Our priority will be on maintaining reliable and affordable utility service for all Californians, not on the fate of any utility provider — we will proceed with that principle in mind.”
Camp Fire aftermath: PG&E to get close look from California lawmakers
The future of Pacific Gas and Electric Co., in jeopardy after two years of devastating wildfires, will be one of the most pressing concerns before California lawmakers when they resume meeting next week.
PG&E could face billions of dollars in potential liabilities due to last year’s Wine Country wildfires and the recently contained Camp Fire in Butte County — which left at least 88 people dead — casting doubt on whether the state’s largest utility can stay financially viable in the long run.
Lawmakers have already floated new measures, including one to let PG&E pass on to consumers more wildfire-related costs and another that could break up the company. ...
https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/amp/Camp-Fire-aftermath-PG-E-to-get-close-look-from-13423376.php
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Queensland bushfires: Thousands told to flee 'catastrophic' threat
Thousands of Australians have been told to evacuate their homes as powerful bushfires threaten properties in Queensland.
The state's fire danger warning has been raised to "catastrophic" - the highest level - for the first time.
...
The worst threat is from a fast-moving bushfire near the town of Gracemere, said Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.
Authorities have ordered about 8,000 people in the town and its surrounding areas to evacuate immediately.
...
Unlike in Australia's drier south, intense fire conditions are unusual in central Queensland in late November because it is the wet season.
The region has been experiencing a record-breaking heatwave, with temperatures soaring above 40C (104F) in places.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-46366964
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I looked at the Ozzy reports and thought of this;
https://youtu.be/C3uaXCJcRrE
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Camp Fire (Paradise, California) update via Chico-Redding Action News (https://www.actionnewsnow.com/content/video/501442441.html?ref=441):
sheriff's office says the number of people missing from the camp fire has dropped by more than 50 [great news!]. it is now at 158. the death toll still stands at 88
…
national weather service has issued a flash flood watch for areas impacted by the camp fire. [10] o'clock tonight through 10 tomorrow morning
debris flows possible (again) with approximately 1.3" (30 mm) of new rainfall forecast.
also: mobilized ash has clogged some drains in the area, causing water damage to buildings.
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Australia’s Fire and Heat Season Is Off to a Grim Start | by Bob Henson | Category 6 | Weather Underground
Perennial fires amid a changing climate
Bushfires are a normal part of Australian climate. They often rage across vast stretches of the thinly populated Outback. Australia’s bushfires pose the greatest threat to life and property when they rip across the more heavily vegetated and populated areas of southeast and far eastern Australia, and especially when they hit communities on the wildland-urban interface. Here, they can be every bit as deadly and destructive as the worst California wildfires.
According to Geoscience Australia, major bushfires from 1967 to 2013 caused 433 deaths, 8000 injuries, and some $4.7 billion in damage (2013 Australian dollars, roughly equal to $5 billion in 2018 USD). If this were scaled up to the U.S. population, it would represent more than 5000 deaths and 100,000 injuries.
Since southern Queenland gets much of its moisture during summer, its fire season tends to be most intense from spring into early summer, so this week’s fires are on target in terms of seasonality. One thing helping to make these fires so fierce and widespread is an intense drought that’s parched the landscape in recent months across much of eastern Australia. In turn, this year's drought falls on the heels of six abnormally dry years across the region.
A special report (see PDF) from the nation’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) concluded that “the recent dry conditions in eastern Australia have few precedents for their combination of extent and duration.” In many locations, the six-year dryness is comparable only to multi-year droughts in the late 1960s and from the mid-1920s to mid-1930s.
Insurance broker Aon puts the cost of Australia's 2018 drought thus far at $1.2 billion. According to EM-DAT, the international disaster database, only three other droughts have caused more damage in Australia: 1981 - 1982 ($6 billion 1982 dollars), 2002 ($2 billion 2002 dollars), and 1993 - 1995 ($1.5 billion 1995 dollars). ...
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Australias-Fire-and-Heat-Season-Grim-Start
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They thought they’d die trapped in a parking lot. How 150 survivors of California's deadliest fire made it out alive
https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-paradise-survivors-20181202-htmlstory.html
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Camp Fire (Paradise, CA) Wikipedia update (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camp_Fire_(2018)) has good news: death toll decreased! and number of missing way down. Looks like fewer than 100 people were killed, all told.
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Insurance company goes under after California's Camp Fire
California's Camp Fire didn't just kill dozens of people and destroy thousands of homes. It also left an insurance company in financial ruins, unable to pay millions of dollars to policyholders.
A state judge ruled that Merced Property & Casualty Co. can't meet its obligations after last month's Camp Fire, the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in California history.
Merced's assets are about $23 million, but it faced about $64 million in outstanding liabilities just in the city of Paradise, court filings show. ...
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/04/us/camp-fire-insurance-company-liquidation/index.html
Also posted in the AGW > Policy & Solutions > Insurance thread.
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[Merced's assets are about $23 million, but it faced about $64 million in outstanding liabilities just in the city of Paradise, court filings show. ...
Oh dear. Such concentration of local risk beyond the ability to pay should not be allowed with proper regulation, unless the company has a reinsurance policy.
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[Merced's assets are about $23 million, but it faced about $64 million in outstanding liabilities just in the city of Paradise, court filings show. ...
Oh dear. Such concentration of local risk beyond the ability to pay should not be allowed with proper regulation, unless the company has a reinsurance policy.
Some countries also have a fund, paid into by all insurance companies, to cover such eventualities. In the USA? Don't know but rather doubt it. Even Lloyd's of London, where underwriters were at risk of personal bankruptcy in such circumstances, now have a backstop to limit their liability.
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I'm sure that the board, as well as all of the major stockholders, will dig as deeply as necessary into their personal coffers to see to it that those who entrusted their future to them will be made whole.
Anyone suggesting less is a communist sympathizer intent on undermining our faith in American Capitalism.
Terry
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[Merced's assets are about $23 million, but it faced about $64 million in outstanding liabilities just in the city of Paradise, court filings show. ...
Oh dear. Such concentration of local risk beyond the ability to pay should not be allowed with proper regulation, unless the company has a reinsurance policy.
Some countries also have a fund, paid into by all insurance companies, to cover such eventualities. In the USA? Don't know but rather doubt it. Even Lloyd's of London, where underwriters were at risk of personal bankruptcy in such circumstances, now have a backstop to limit their liability.
California has one. See the wiki article Tor linked to above.
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The number of missing is down to 6, with no increase in deaths (85), per Wikipedia.
Camp Fire (Paradise, CA) Wikipedia update (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camp_Fire_(2018)) has good news: death toll decreased! and number of missing way down. Looks like fewer than 100 people were killed, all told.
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CAL FIRE Chief says 1) some areas should be off-limits to housing, 2) citizens should be prepared to shelter in place, 3) the agency is having a "sea change" about prescribed fire, 4) firefighters are "living climate change"
Cal Fire chief: State must mull home ban in fire-prone areas
Cal Fire Director Ken Pimlott will leave his job Friday after 30 years with the agency. In an interview with The Associated Press, he said government and citizens must act differently to protect lives and property from fires that now routinely threaten large populations.
That may mean rethinking subdivisions in thickly forested mountainous areas or homes along Southern California canyons lined with tinder-dry chaparral. Los Angeles County supervisors on Tuesday were considering whether to allow a 19,000-home development in fire-prone mountains amid heavy criticism of the location's high fire danger.
California residents should also train themselves to respond more quickly to warnings and make preparations to shelter in place if they can't outrun the flames, Pimlott said.
Communities in fire zones need to harden key buildings with fireproof construction similar to the way cities prepare for earthquakes, hurricanes or tornadoes, and should prepare commercial or public buildings to withstand fires with the expectation hundreds may shelter there as they did in makeshift fashion when flames last month largely destroyed the Sierra Nevada foothills city of Paradise in Northern California. ...
https://www.kcra.com/article/cal-fire-chief-state-must-adapt-to-new-wildfire-norm/25475297
Cross-posted in Places thread
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Perhaps fire fighters should be required to stay on the job, rather than sending equipment and personnel to attend police funeral processions?
Terry
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At Least $9bn in Preliminary Insurance Claims from California Fires
https://m.phys.org/news/2018-12-9bn-california.html
Insurance claims from the recent devastating California wildfires that killed at least 89 people and destroyed 19,000 homes and businesses have reached at least $9 billion, the state's insurance commissioner said Wednesday.
He said the figures released in connection with the three wildfires—the Camp Fire, The Woolsey Fire and the Hill Fire— are preliminary.
State and federal authorities announced on Tuesday that it will cost at least $3 billion to clear debris from the blazes.
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After the Fire: Blazes Pose Hidden Threat to the West's Drinking Water
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/after-fire-blazes-pose-hidden-threat-west-s-drinking-water-n954806
(https://images.thestar.com/u-ia2gviOdvtAwjH-RL0oSCMgMI=/480x320/smart/filters:cb(1508000265022)/https://www.thestar.com/content/dam/thestar/news/world/2017/10/14/gusty-winds-fan-california-wildfires-force-yet-more-evacuations/firefighters_jpg.jpg)
At least 65 percent of the public water supply in the Western U.S. comes from fire-prone areas
... When Serene Buhrz turned the water on for the first time several days after the fire, the chemical smell from their kitchen tap was overpowering.
"If [he] hadn't called in to report a chemical smell in the water, we may never have known about it," said Bennett Horenstein, who was director of Santa Rosa Water during the fire. "It makes me wonder how many times this has happened and gone unreported."
Santa Rosa Water found the problem was not confined to the Buhrz home. Throughout Fountaingrove, plastic water pipes had melted as houses burned, releasing a carcinogenic chemical called benzene into the neighborhood's water system.
For nearly a year after the fire, Fountaingrove residents were told not to drink water from the tap, even if it was boiled first. ... In total, the City of Santa Rosa had to spend $8 million replacing hydrants, valves, and other water system components in 352 properties, including 1,265 feet of water main.
(https://tse3.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.2p_ORmyK_dfq4N9Q9Y8alQHaCh)
According to U.S. Forest Service data, in just 20 years, new wildland-urban interface (WUI) areas grew by more than 46 million acres, covering an area larger than Washington State.
When these homes become wildfire tinder, insulation, roofing and home furnishings release toxins as they go up in flames, creating new sources of water contamination.
In addition to releasing toxins into the water supply, fires kill healthy tree roots. Without the roots, contaminating sediment and ash are flushed by rain into the reservoirs, rivers and lakes that supply cities with drinkable water.
In 2017 the U.S. Geological Survey published a study (https://www.usgs.gov/news/increases-wildfire-caused-erosion-could-impact-water-supply-and-quality-west-2) that predicted wildfires could double the amount of sediment in a third of the largest western watersheds by 2050. In some areas, sediment could increase 1,000 percent, potentially carrying parasites and harmful metals and chemicals with it.
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This is what will happen in the ocean when the waves drown Miami and other coastal cities. Widespread long-lasting pollution. People may retreat to higher ground, but their infrastructure will not.
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This is what will happen in the ocean when the waves drown Miami and other coastal cities. Widespread long-lasting pollution. People may retreat to higher ground, but their infrastructure will not.
Exactly! This is what I've been telling my town council. Unfortunately, they're still acting like they live in the 20th century.
It looks like California won't have to wait to long to reap the problems the fire has wrought. (... This is with just 1.2 inches of rain)
Mudslides Shut Down Pacific Coast Highway in Malibu
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/mudslides-shut-down-pacific-coast-highway-malibu-n955256
A mudslide forced the closure of Pacific Coast Highway in Malibu Saturday as a flash flood warning remained in effect for areas in both Los Angeles and Ventura counties where hillsides have been left denuded by the recent Woolsey and Hill fires, authorities said.
... A mud flow on Pacific Coast Highway near Mullholland Highway in Malibu trapped two cars in mud, according to the CHP. Both directions of travel were shut between Las Posas Road and Encinal Canyon Road as crews cleaned up the mess. The closure was expected to last through at least Sunday, according to Caltrans.
Another mudslide covered all lanes of traffic along PCH near Tonga Street in Ventura County, prompting a road closure, CHP logs showed.
(https://cbslocal-uploads.storage.googleapis.com/captures/110/DA2/110DA2A1411544C9BAD9DD702C7A1CAA.jpg)
Those living in the recently burned areas are urged to take steps to protect their property, remain alert an follow any directions given by emergency responders.
also, January and February are high rainfall months
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7y70PTJ163Y
https://www.vox.com/2018/4/24/17270340/california-rain-drought-flooding-climate-change
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Letting 4000 Americans die in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria wasn't good enough for him ...
Trump Threatens To End FEMA Funds for California Wildfires
https://www.axios.com/trump-tweets-california-fema-money-wildfires-95c90124-5c9f-4195-9bb7-0dc9a3cac278.html
President Trump threatened to cut off FEMA funding for California's wildfire relief in a Wednesday tweet, blaming the state's poor land management.
"Billions of dollars are sent to the State of California for Forest fires that, with proper Forest Management, would never happen. Unless they get their act together, which is unlikely, I have ordered FEMA to send no more money. It is a disgraceful situation in lives & money!"
The Camp Fire that ravaged northern California was both the deadliest in state history and the costliest with overall losses of $16.5 billion and insured losses of $12.5 billion, according to Munich Re in a press release.
Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) responded to President Trump's tweet:
"Californians endured the deadliest wildfire in our state’s history last year. We should work together to mitigate these fires by combating climate change, not play politics by threatening to withhold money from survivors of a deadly natural disaster."
Newly elected Gov. Gavin Newsom tweeted:
"Mr. President -- Just yesterday, @OregonGovBrown, @GovInslee, and I sent a letter asking the federal government to work with us in taking on these unprecedented wildfires. We have been put in office by the voters to get things done, not to play games with lives."
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A federal judge tells PG&E to cut down or trim all trees that might fall on power lines. PG&E has until Jan. 30th to respond.
https://www.npr.org/2019/01/09/683815660/federal-judge-proposes-restrictions-on-unsafe-pg-e-power-lines
Gavin Newsom , our new governor , is apparently making the PG&E problems a priority in his new administration. Seems to me that there is a conflict between the new green governors credentials and federal judges proposal to cut down tens of thousands of trees.
I am buying a tesla power wall because I think our PG&E power grid and intermittent power are inevitable.
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Brian Chappatta: "BREAKING: PG&E downgraded to junk by Moody's (Ba3 from Baa2). Company is officially a fallen angel."
https://twitter.com/BChappatta/status/1083475964208779264
"We see a much more challenging environment for PG&E, as potential liabilities grow, liquidity reserves decline and access to capital becomes more uncertain. The company is increasingly reliant on extraordinary intervention by legislators and regulators."
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PG&E CEO to Leave With Utility at Brink of Bankruptcy
... The company has seen two-thirds of its market value wiped out since November’s Camp Fire -- the deadliest wildfire in California’s history. Investigators have been probing whether the power giant’s equipment ignited the fire, along with its potential liability for blazes that devastated Northern California’s wine country in 2017 -- costs that may tally as much as $30 billion. Its debt has been downgraded to junk and state regulators have called for a management shakeup.
...
The company’s deepening financial crisis has forced California regulators and policy makers to consider a bailout package and PG&E is weighing whether to file for bankruptcy. The utility is planning to notify employees as soon as Monday that it may make a Chapter 11 filing within 15 days, people familiar with the plan said Saturday. Such a notice would be required by state law.
...
Under Williams, PG&E spent millions of dollars trying to convince state lawmakers to change a legal doctrine known as inverse condemnation, under which utilities are liable for damages if their equipment is found to have sparked a wildfire, even if they weren’t negligent. Williams called the doctrine bad public policy that made utilities the default insurer in the state. She said the wildfires were a symptom of climate change with hotter and drier conditions sparking more frequent and intense blazes. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-01-14/pg-e-ceo-is-said-to-leave-with-utility-at-brink-of-bankruptcy
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California utility firm suspected of starting deadly wildfires goes bankrupt
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jan/14/california-wildfires-pacific-gas-and-electric-bankruptcy
... The board of directors of Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) has determined that the move “is ultimately the only viable option to restore PG&E’s financial stability to fund ongoing operations and provide safe service to customers”, the San Francisco-based company stated in a filing at the Security and Exchange Commission.
No bad deed goes unrewarded ...
Ex-California utility CEO to receive $2.5m severance amid firm's bankruptcy
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jan/15/california-pge-ceo-severance-wildfires-bankrupt
(https://frrl.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/goldenparachute_3levels.jpg)
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Great summation of this whole PG&E disaster.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mA_6avNYxWM
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This is my first real natural disaster and it sucks | First Dog on the Moon
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/30/this-is-my-first-real-natural-disaster-and-it-sucks
Vignettes from the fires in Australia
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'It eats everything'—the new breed of wildfire that's impossible to predict
...
New normal
There have been signs of trouble since the 1990s, according to Castellnou.
"This change has been cooking for a long time, but the first time we realised something wrong was happening were the years 2009 and 2012," he said, referring to the Black Saturday bushfires in the Australian state of Victoria that killed 173 people and wildfires in Spain, Portugal, Chile and California, US. Many in the fire community initially thought these were just abnormal events, he says.
But then wildfires in Chile and Portugal in 2017 indicated that those weren't simply extreme years. "That was the new normal arriving. 2018 has confirmed that," he said, referring to the deadly wildfires in Greece and in California.
On October 15, 2017, Castellnou was in central Portugal to conduct analysis then support the local services as the wildfires became firestorms.
...
In the past, he says, a fire that destroyed 25,000 hectares a day was considered extreme. According to his figures, the October fires in Portugal consumed 220,000 hectares of forest, an area 22 times the size of Lisbon and killed more than 40 people. Castellnou says that at their peak, wildfires burned at a rate of 10,000 hectares per hour over seven hours.
"This is something that blew my mind and I cannot use technology to simulate that because models can't predict it,"
...
https://phys.org/news/2019-02-everythingthe-wildfire-impossible.html
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Wildfire Risk in California No Longer Coupled to Winter Precipitation
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-north-pacific-jet-stream-moisture.html
From 1600 to 1903, the position of the North Pacific jet stream over California was linked to the amount of winter precipitation and the severity of the subsequent wildfire season, the team found. Wet winters brought by the jet stream were followed by low wildfire activity, and dry winters were generally followed by higher wildfire activity.
After 1904, the connection between winter moisture brought by the jet stream from December through February and the severity of the wildfire season weakened. The weakened connection between precipitation and wildfires corresponds to the onset of a fire suppression policy on U.S. federal lands, the team reports in the March 4 issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The connection disappeared altogether after 1977.
Now, fuel buildup from decades of fire suppression in the 20th century plus rising temperatures from climate change means any year may have large fires, no matter how wet the previous winter, the team writes.
... The likelihood that every year may be a high-fire year will be a significant societal challenge, ...
(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/IllustriousDeafeningAnemoneshrimp-size_restricted.gif)
Eugene R. Wahl el al., "Jet stream dynamics, hydroclimate, and fire in California from 1600 CE to present," (https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/02/15/1815292116) PNAS (2019)
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Audio: The first 2 hours of radio traffic from the Paradise, California wildfire, starting from the initial dispatch. The fire begins near Pulga, in the upper right of the map below, spreading quickly to Concow, then Paradise.
Radio traffic - The first 2 hours of the Camp Fire in Paradise
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPgZch5HW9o
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https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3004156/least-26-killed-chinese-forest-fire
Thirty Chinese firefighters killed in Sichuan blaze after change in wind creates ‘huge fireball’
All those reported missing on Sunday while fighting blaze in remote part of country’s southwest confirmed dead
A forest fire in southwest Chin has killed 30 firefighters who became trapped after a sudden change in wind direction created a “huge fireball”, state media reported on Monday.
The firefighters had been reported missing on Sunday while fighting the blaze in a remote, mountainous part of Liangshan prefecture in Sichuan province.
The became trapped after the wind abruptly changed direction, before they lost contact with other rescuers and were engulfed in flames.
The emergency ministry confirmed the following day that it had found the bodies of all 30 missing, China Central Television reported.
The blaze had still not been brought under control on Monday evening, and efforts to tackle the fire continued.
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Now, in Siberia.
https://twitter.com/CopernicusEU/status/1119535957886349312
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More info on the Siberian wildfire
http://tass.com/emergencies/1054698
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The UK is burning. It is April. #winterisdying
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-48010513
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In England too.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/apr/22/huge-area-of-yorkshire-moorland-destroyed-by-fire-barbecue
Moorland fires in Northern England are modest in comparison to the greater threats in other more vulnerable regions of the world but we're just into the first days of Spring and this is the third such blaze this year. Will it help to raise awareness of the proximity of the threat of Climate change in the UK?
I hope so.
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This one hits close to home, literally. I watched it spread from my bedroom window and man it was fast at times.
Now the whole hillside is black and, sadly, some other small fires have started/been started on other patches nearby - frankly in those places arson is a possibility, but also one fire by a roadside that could easily have been a discarded cigarette.
This after the fairly big (by UK standards) fire in almost the same area in February. That one was indeed arson, but this time the main fire appears to have been caused accidentally by people with a BBQ.
The point is though, that people aren't used to the ground being so dry especially so early in the year. Moorland being flammable in February is not normal! If this is the direction things are moving in, all these upland areas will be a huge fire risk for most of the year - particularly worrying because this is peatland that can burn long and deep, emitting a large amount of carbon in the process.
If only there were TREES and other vegetation. I think I'm right in saying that a typical woodland in the UK would not have as high a fire risk as these open moors because the trees trap moisture at ground level? Unfortunately, Marsden Moor is almost entirely treeless - and for the last week or so dry, and covered with flammable grass tussocks.
I feel pretty bad for the National Trust which has had to spend thousands of pounds an hour on the helicopters fighting these fires; I can hear one flying outside as I type. On the other hand, I really feel that a change in land use is required to allow trees to grow here again without being eaten by sheep or (on other moors) broken down to keep the heather going for the grouse.
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Here in Finland sunsers have been unusually red, first idea was sand fom Sahara, now the actual cause has been found and it’s grass and forest fires somewhere in Ukraine and other East European parts...
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Winnie the Pooh's Real-Life Hundred Acre Wood Hit by Forest Fire
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/04/29/europe/winnie-the-pooh-forest-fire-trnd/index.html
(https://i.etsystatic.com/7741975/r/il/dc704b/894423979/il_570xN.894423979_rxfx.jpg)
An overnight fire ripped through a forest in England that provided the setting for the Winnie the Pooh children's stories.
The blaze at Ashdown Forest, in East Sussex, started at around 9.30 p.m. on Sunday and affected an area of more than 35 acres, according to the East Sussex Fire and Rescue Service.
Ashdown Forest is in the heart of the High Weald Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty, which covers parts of Kent, Sussex and Surrey in southeast England.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iMjZNBYSjyg
House at Pooh Corner, by Kenny Loggins & Jim Messina
Christopher Robin and I walked along,
Under branches lit up by the moon.
Posing our questions to Owl and Eeyore,
As the days disappeared far too soon.
Now I wandered much further today than I should,
And I can't find my way to the three-acre wood.
So help me if you can, I've got to get
Back to the house At Pooh Corner by one.
You'll be surprised, there's so much to be done,
Count all the bees in the hive,
Chase all the clouds from the sky,
Back to the days of Christopher Robin,
And Pooh.
Winnie the Pooh doesn't know what to do,
Got a honey jar stuck on his nose.
He came to me asking help and advice,
And from here no one knows where he goes.
So I went in to ask of the Owl, if he's there,
How to loosen a jar from the nose of a bear.
So help me if you can I've got to get,
Back to the house At Pooh Corner by one.
You'll be surprised there's so much to be done,
Count all the bees in the hive,
Chase all the clouds from the sky,
Back to the days of Christopher Robin,
Back to the ways of Christopher Robin,
And Pooh
Story Behind the Song: 'House at Pooh Corner'
https://amp.tennessean.com/amp/15237517
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Forest Fires Accelerating Snowmelt Across Western US, Study Finds
https://m.phys.org/news/2019-05-forest-snowmelt-western.html
Forest fires are causing snow to melt earlier in the season, a trend occurring across the western U.S. that may affect water supplies and trigger even more fires, according to a new study by a team of researchers at Portland State University (PSU) , the Desert Research Institute (DRI), and the University of Nevada, Reno.
Researchers found that more than 11 percent of all forests in the West are currently experiencing earlier snowmelt and snow disappearance as a result of fires. ... They found that not only did snow melt an average five days earlier after a fire than before all across the West, but the accelerated timing of the snowmelt continued for as many as 15 years.
"This fire effect on earlier snowmelt is widespread across the West and is persistent for at least a decade following fire," said Kelly Gleason, the lead author
... In the last 20 years, there's been a four-fold increase in the amount of energy absorbed by snowpack because of fires across the West.
Open Access: Kelly E. Gleason et al, Four-fold increase in solar forcing on snow in western U.S. burned forests since 1999 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-09935-y), Nature Communications (2019)
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California Dispatches Goats to Eat Brush, Prevent Wildfires
California firefighters are enlisting help from some unusual allies to prevent more deadly wildfires from ripping across the state -- goats.
The Ventura County Fire Department is releasing hundreds of goats next week north of Los Angeles to eat dead brush that could become fuel for a fires.
“They’ll eat until we like the way the landscape looks, and then we move them to another area,” Captain Ken VanWig, who oversees the department’s vegetation management program, said in an interview. “They’re very effective.”
The concept’s not unique to Ventura County, which has been using goats to trim vegetation for about five years. Departments across the state are doing the same as firefighters work to prevent deadly fires like the one that destroyed the town of Paradise in Northern California last November, killing 85 people, said Scott McLean, a spokesman for California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.
“It’s another tool in the tool box,” he said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-05-03/california-dispatches-goats-to-eat-brush-prevent-wildfires
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Brilliant. Solar powered brush mowers.
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Rabbits ere introduced in Australia as pets.
They also ate the grass that fires burn.
The fires are still happening and worsening.
And we have a rabbit problem as well.
When will we learn to stop being clever and start fixing the actual cause of the problem?
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‘It’s way too early’: Officials, residents scramble as B.C. wildfires spread sooner than expected (https://globalnews.ca/news/5269194/bc-wildfires-early-start/)
Already an anxious time for me out here...
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Not sure who-all can watch this, and for how long, but this is an excellent presentation on wildfires and the US historical attitude towards preventing and fighting them. Much on the California megafires of 2018, and the effects of climate change on forests.
Inside the Megafire | Season 46 Episode 8 | NOVA | PBS
https://www.pbs.org/video/inside-the-megafire-uzvhug/
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More fires in BC....
https://www.castanet.net/news/Penticton/256278/Richter-Creek-fire-400-ha
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'Fires near Mexico City have filled the skies with smoke over the metropolitan area, which is home to around 22 million people. Air quality has become hazardous as smoke pollution has far exceeded levels considered to be safe. Officials in Mexico City have declared an environmental emergency, closed schools, and advised people to stay inside.'
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145062/wildfire-smoke-shrouds-mexico-city
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So, here they are...
"Black skies over Siberia as wildfires rage around the world’s oldest lake
By The Siberian Times reporter, 10 May 2019
Cries to urgently call state of emergency in Irkutsk region as it chokes in smoke."
http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/black-skies-over-siberia-as-wildfires-rage-around-the-worlds-oldest-lake/
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GOES west today, northern Alberta.
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Alberta Government (@YourAlberta)
5/20/19, 3:40 PM
UPDATE: mandatory Evacuation Order issued for residents S & SE of the Town of High Level and South of the Bushe River Reserve. Evacuees must register at the Town of High Level Arena - 10101 105 Ave. Crews will be going door-to-door to notify residents.
https://twitter.com/youralberta/status/1130558951207055360
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CBC reports (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/slave-lake-wildfire-evacuation-high-level-1.5143124)
An out-of-control wildfire burning Tuesday near a town in northwestern Alberta is rated at the highest possible danger level, and the dry, windy weather means the danger is expected to increase this week, says Alberta Premier Jason Kenney.
"The fire is jumping from crown to crown of trees," Kenney said at a news conference Tuesday. "Unfortunately, the dry conditions in northern Alberta are expected to continue for the foreseeable future, with the fire danger possibly increasing this week."
The fire near the town of High Level is ranked as a Level 6, the top of the wildfire intensity scale. Increased fire danger is common during the spring because of the abundance of dry, flammable materials in the period between the snow melt and the green-up of the landscape.
…
Evacuation successful
The fire was within five kilometres of High Level but Kenney said no homes have been damaged and there are no known injuries as a result of the fire.
(https://i.cbc.ca/1.5143670.1558463071!/fileImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/original_780/high-level-fire-map.jpg)
(https://i.cbc.ca/1.5143488.1558456366!/fileImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/16x9_780/high-level-fire.jpg)
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Still going on in Alberta. https://watchers.news/2019/05/27/massive-wildfires-burning-in-alberta-canada/
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I wonder what the results will be of all the rain in California. Lots of greens that will pop up.
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B.C.'s air quality affected by Alberta wildfires:
https://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/b-c-s-air-quality-affected-by-alberta-wildfires/wcm/8404a2ee-39db-44f0-a724-ec5ad93312b5?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1559172620
EDIT: Latest on Alberta fires (while carbon tax is repealed):
https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/j5wvnk/as-alberta-burns-jason-kenney-repeals-carbon-tax?utm_source=reddit.com
EDIT 2: BC record fire seasons the New Normal:
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-s-bad-fire-seasons-a-new-norm-of-unprecedented-wildfires
Wildfire smoke particularly bad:
https://www.popsci.com/wildfire-smoke-public-health
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Canadian Wildfire Smoke Spreads Into the Eastern U.S.
https://wildfiretoday.com/2019/06/01/canadian-wildfire-smoke-spreads-into-the-eastern-u-s/
On Saturday smoke from the wildfires in Alberta, Canada was affecting parts of Washington, Oregon, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Minnesota, Iowa, South Dakota, and most of the states east of the Mississippi River — plus the Canadian provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba.
(https://i0.wp.com/wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Smoke_6-1-2019.jpg?ssl=1)
(https://i2.wp.com/wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/ForecastSmoke_6-2-2019.jpg?ssl=1)
--------------------------
Wildfire Smoke Swirls Over the Atlantic Ocean, Invades the UK
https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/wildfire-smoke-swirls-over-atlantic-162441079.html
The skies in Edmonton, Canada were recently so red and smoky that a local meteorologist told NASA "it looked like we were on Mars."
Now, that prodigious wildfire smoke has left Canada, streamed thousands of miles across the Atlantic Ocean, and passed over the UK. On Monday morning, the UK Met Office posted imagery of the North American wildfire smoke sailing over the island nation.
https://mobile.twitter.com/metoffice/status/1135501635910811648
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CO levels look about normal so far. don't bother clicking video.
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1 Billion Acres At Risk For Catastrophic Wildfires, U.S. Forest Service Warns
https://www.npr.org/2019/06/05/729720938/1-billion-acres-at-risk-for-catastrophic-wildfires-u-s-forest-service-warns
The chief of the U.S. Forest Service is warning that a billion acres of land across America are at risk of catastrophic wildfires like last fall's deadly Camp Fire that destroyed most of Paradise, Calif.
... "When you look nationwide there's not any place that we're really at a fire season. Fire season is not an appropriate term anymore," Christiansen said in an interview with NPR at the agency's headquarters in Washington. ... "It's always fire season"
In line with a controversial Trump administration executive order pushing for "active forest management," the agency was directed to treat 3.5 million acres this year alone, though it's behind target because of weather and administrative holdups. Part of the administration policy has also included an attempt to ramp up commercial logging on federal lands, an objective that conservation groups say will not reduce fire risk, unlike clearing of the smaller diameter wood that the timber industry has so far found little market for.
-------------------------
Total column (CO) carbon monoxide forecast - Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service
https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/cams/carbon-monoxide-forecasts?facets=undefined&time=2019060500,3,2019060503&projection=classical_global&layer_name=composition_co_totalcolumn
(https://stream.ecmwf.int/data/gorax-green-005/data/scratch/ef/34/render-gorax-green-005-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-o4zNvC.png)
Fire Activity - Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service
https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/cams/fire-activity?facets=undefined&time=2019060400,24,2019060500&projection=classical_global
(https://stream.ecmwf.int/data/gorax-green-004/data/scratch/e6/74/render-gorax-green-004-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-OKwERK.png)
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Health effects of wildfires:
https://www.outsideonline.com/2397137/wildfire-smoke-health-risks
EDIT: Minnesota skies are getting smokey:
https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/06/05/climate-change-is-making-minnesotas-skies-smoky-this-summer
EDIT 2:
Alberta wildfires linked to AGW:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-wildfires-climate-change-1.5168355
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Emergency generator, or solar + batteries, quickly becoming a must-have in California, where “fire season” is now year-long.
< Can you add the new PG&E fire blackouts to storm watch for Powerwalls? Much needed feature in California...
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 6/11/19, 1:32 AM
Storm Watch was active for hundreds of Powerwall customers this weekend as a result of @NWS Red Flag Fire Warnings in California, and we will continue to activate it whenever there advance awareness of a potential power outage or physical danger
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1138317952145534976
Tesla activated 'Storm Watch' for 'hundreds' of Powerwall owners over California fires
https://electrek.co/2019/06/11/tesla-storm-watch-powerwall-california-fires/
Background:
May 30: California approves wide power outages to prevent wildfires
The plans could inconvenience hundreds of thousands of customers while endangering some who depend on electricity to keep them alive.
California regulators on Thursday approved allowing utilities to cut off electricity to possibly hundreds of thousands of customers to avoid catastrophic wildfires like the one sparked by power lines last year that killed 85 people and largely destroyed the city of Paradise.
Utilities' liability can reach billions of dollars, and after several years of devastating wildfires, they asked regulators to allow them to pull the plug when fire risk is extremely high. That's mainly during periods of excessive winds and low humidity when vegetation is dried out and can easily ignite.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-approves-wide-power-outages-prevent-wildfires-n1012271
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Alberta wildfires:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-wildfire-update-evacuation-orders-1.5179484
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13 June. Wildfires in Siberia.
Alarming wildfires rage near giant ‘Mouth of Hell’ gash in the tundra, a wonder of Siberia
The fires are now raging some 10 to 15 kilometres from the megaslump crater - a large hole in the frozen Arctic soil which highlights the dramatic speed of thawing permafrost.
The Batagaika or Batagai "megaslump" is a tadpole-shaped depression around one kilometre long, 800 metres wide and 100 metres deep.
It is growing by some 15 to 30 metres a year - but if it is hit by the nearby inferno this would destroy trees on its rim and loosen the soil even more, resulting in further collapses.
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Changes in the local climate have seen an ‘almost snowless’ winter in this northern outpost with dry weather exacerbating the risk of wildfires spreading. ...
http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/alarming-wildfires-rage-near-giant-mouth-of-hell-gash-in-the-tundra-a-wonder-of-siberia/
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Wet winters mean fierier summers:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/wet-california-winter-is-a-boon-for-skiers-and-water-supply-but-it-brings-a-threat-wildfires/2019/06/17/444acaa6-8bb6-11e9-b08e-cfd89bd36d4e_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.69360d3c10db
AGW means two times as much fire, twelve times as much smoke in 2100 Alberta:
https://www.stalberttoday.ca/local-news/up-to-12-times-more-smoke-due-to-climate-change-warns-prof-1517353
Alaskan tundra fires proliferate in warmer weather:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-alaska-fires/with-far-north-temperatures-rising-alaska-tundra-fires-proliferate-idUSKCN1TN00I
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Insurance Companies Say They're Not Allowed to Plan for the ‘New Normal’ of Intense Wildfires
https://www.voiceofsandiego.org/topics/science-environment/insurance-companies-say-theyre-not-allowed-to-plan-for-the-new-normal-of-intense-wildfires/
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California home insurers are required to predict future losses based on losses that happened in the past, usually over the past 20 years.
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Since 10 of California’s 20 biggest fires have happened in the past five years, rates are already rising quickly.
Using the last 20 years as a baseline is not going to work.
Allison Castro, a spokeswoman for the state’s Department of Insurance, said there hasn’t been an instance yet where an insurer tried to use a model and was denied, but the department has a litany of concerns. Regulators worry the models aren’t credible, and that they’re a “black box” and could be used to overcharge consumers.
Of course the government could create an organisation running such models to set bounds if they actually cared.
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This is ridiculous and at the same time what is likely happening everywhere.
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Northern forests exhibiting similar conditions now compared to Pliocene. Current models have included some of these feed backs but not older models.
https://www.clim-past.net/15/1063/2019/
:(
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It was the worst June inside the arctic circle by far.
https://imgur.com/a/NPVXCIG (https://imgur.com/a/NPVXCIG)
https://imgur.com/a/CE5ULXW (https://imgur.com/a/CE5ULXW)
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More on the June wildfires in arctic
Mark Parrington, a senior scientist working on wildfire emissions at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said in an email that in June 2019 Arctic wildfires released 50 megatons of carbon dioxide. In the first couple days of July, he said, the Arctic Circle has already released 4.5-5 megatons of CO2.
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/qv79b5/unprecedented-wildfires-are-burning-across-the-arctic-circle
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Wildfires on Greenland again !
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145302/another-fire-in-greenland
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Alaska suffering more wildfires because of AGW:
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/11072019/arctic-wildfires-alaska-climate-change-heat-wave-2019-university-funding
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/12/arctic-wildfires-c02-carbon-emissions-same-sweden?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR2sWJWcLGetGRua9jT1zOr5hBGZemQMYXKxztKa9C_5ee7RV1yzX8-ZsRQ
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Coastal Forest fire risk rising:
https://thetyee.ca/News/2019/07/15/Increase-Fire-Risk-Coastal-Forests/
and around the world as well:
https://thinkprogress.org/climate-change-california-wildfires-alaska-temperatures-new-research-2cc12958a05a/
while Maui burns:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hawaii-wildfires/hawaii-governor-declares-emergency-for-maui-wildfires-idUSKCN1U70RN
EDIT: California wildfires 500 percent larger because of AGW:
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/07/climate-change-500-percent-increase-california-wildfires/594016/
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Smoke-cane in Siberia
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Smoke-cane in Siberia
Looks like a swarm of meteorites entering the atmosphere...
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Getting bigger
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Awesome photos...
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The amount of area that covers is just mind blowing.
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Surely the scale of these fires is unprecedented. There's some amazing coverage in the Siberian Times:
https://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/major-siberian-cities-choking-from-strong-wildfires/
"According to the Federal Service Avialesokhrana on 21 July, some 492,750 hectares of forests are ablaze in Krasnoyarsk region and only 28,366 are being extinguished.
Smoke from wildfires is observed in several districts of the Irkutsk region, further to the east.
Smoke covered Bratsky, Chunsky, Ust-Ilimsky, Nizhneilimsky and Ust-Kut districts.
As of the morning of 21 July, 86 forest fires are registered in Irkutsk region.
The total area of burning forests is 217,418 hectares."
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Thanks for the link, Silkman
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Arctic firestorm
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These are some of the biggest fires on the planet, with a few appearing to be larger than 100,000 hectares (380 square miles)," Smith said. "The amount of CO2 (carbon dioxide) emitted from Arctic Circle fires in June 2019 is larger than all of the CO2 released from Arctic Circle fires in the same month from 2010 through to 2018 put together.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2019/07/23/arctic-fires-shown-satellite-concerning-scientists/1793530001/
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These are some of the biggest fires on the planet, with a few appearing to be larger than 100,000 hectares (380 square miles)," Smith said. "The amount of CO2 (carbon dioxide) emitted from Arctic Circle fires in June 2019 is larger than all of the CO2 released from Arctic Circle fires in the same month from 2010 through to 2018 put together.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2019/07/23/arctic-fires-shown-satellite-concerning-scientists/1793530001/
Peat fires have been known to burn through the winter.
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How much CO2 is the Siberian fire pumping out?
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How much CO2 is the Siberian fire pumping out?
More than in any year in the 17 year record, and a lot of it is coming from peat which is old, sequestered carbon.
Dr. Smith has a lot of good images and links in his thread. These are screen shots so I can’t make the links active. If you want more information, you can search him on Twitter and get the active links there. @DrTELS
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Continued:
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Unprecedented Wildfires Are Smothering The Arctic In Smoke
I think it's fair to say July Arctic Circle #wildfires are now at unprecedented levels," Copernicus senior scientist Mark Parrington said on Twitter Monday.
Parrington says the amount of CO2 added to the atmosphere by Arctic wildfires during the first three weeks of July is equal to the annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions for Bulgaria, Hungary and Sweden.
Atmospheric scientist Dr. Santiago Gasso says the fires burning in the Siberian regions of Krasnoyarsk Krai and Sakha have "now created a smoke lid extending over 4 and half million (square km) over central northern Asia. This is staggering."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2019/07/24/the-arctic-is-on-fire-like-never-before/
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https://globalnews.ca/news/5663184/arctic-fires-co2-sweden/
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Yesterday, there was a discussion on the melting thread about whether the smoke from the arctic wildfires has impacted the sea ice.
The smoke plume from the Alaska wildfires has extended to the North Pole with heavier concentrations of aerosols on the way.
So far, the smoke from the Siberian wildfires has stayed south of the ice.
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I know this isn't supposed to be a political thread, but even though Russia produces more forest fire particulate, the U.S.A. exports more. :-\ :o :'(
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#winning
Not sure if these countries actually care about the connection.
Personally i am looking forward to physics free missele launches. 8)
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CO2 emissions of arctic wildfires:
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2211013-huge-arctic-fires-have-now-emitted-a-record-breaking-amount-of-co2/
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The sheer scale of this years fires is just boggling. *Millions* of KM2 seriously affected by smoke...
7/25/2019 Worldview capture with a few added notations for reference.
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The Arctic is suffering its worst wildfire season on record, with huge blazes in Greenland, Siberia and Alaska producing plumes of smoke that can be seen from space.
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“The amount of [carbon dioxide] emitted from Arctic circle fires in June 2019 is larger than all of the CO2 released from Arctic circle fires in the same month from 2010 through to 2018 put together.”
In June alone, the WMO said, Arctic fires emitted 50 megatonnes of CO2, equal to Sweden’s total annual emissions.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/26/unprecedented-more-than-100-wildfires-burning-in-the-arctic-in-worst-ever-season?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
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Fires and floods in Siberia.
Almost 3 million hectares on fire, including Arctic, with fumes having hit area larger than European Union. Worst hit is Yakutia where 1.8 million hectares are now ablaze.
https://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/fire-and-flood-apocalypse-with-wildfires-raging-and-dire-threat-to-baikal-worlds-deepest-lake/
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Hi guys. Many thanks for all that information! It's absolutely scary what's going on with all these fires. The fires can be seen more clearly again on today's Worldview image, and it looks like those fires just keep spreading...
https://go.nasa.gov/2yqQNs4
With corrected reflectance bands it's easier to see the scars that are left behind by the fires.
https://go.nasa.gov/2ymzJna
I read that the peat has now caught fire, and I know that peat fires can burn for many years, underground, but is that also the case when they get covered with snow? Will enough snow (water) put out the peat fire eventually? Or will these peat fires become a big problem?
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A peat fire will burn downwards and outward becoming the largest fires on earth in the mass of fuel that is burned. They continue to burn even in winter and reignite in the summer according to the LSE study.
Peat, the world's largest terrestrial carbon store, ignites into 'unprecedented' Arctic firestorms. (https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/7/27/1874542/-Peat-the-world-s-largest-terrestrial-carbon-store-ignites-into-unprecedented-Arctic-firestorms) (Daily Kos article published July 27, 2019)
I remember reading (several years ago) about a peat fire someplace in Alaska that 'seemed' to get put out each winter but came back each summer for a few years.
Some 'background':
Chapter 1 - Smoldering-Peat Megafires: The Largest Fires on Earth (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B978044459510200001X) - Science Direct - 2015
Abstract
Smoldering megafires are the largest and longest burning fires on Earth. They destroy essential peat land ecosystems and are responsible for 15% of annual global greenhouse gas emissions. This is the same amount attributed to all the combustion engine vehicles in the world, yet it is not accounted for in global carbon budgets. Peat fires also induce surges of respiratory emergencies in the population and disrupt shipping and aviation routes for long periods, weeks, and even months. Despite their importance, we do not understand how smoldering fires ignite, spread, or extinguish, which impedes the development of any successful mitigation strategy. Megafires are routinely fought across the globe with techniques that were developed for flaming fires, and are thus ineffective for smoldering. Moreover, the burning of deep peat affects older soil carbon that has not been part of the active carbon cycle for centuries to millennia, and thus creates a positive feedback to the climate system.
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Tor...reading the peat fire links, is it just me or does every new story always contain info that makes things worse then they appeared to be? I can't remember the last time I read an article about AGW where I said "Boy that's good".
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I'm wondering if these peat fires are the first triggers of rapid climate change. Will these fires trigger or speed up other feedback loops? I presume they will... These fires are really bad news for the planet... The first domino has fallen...
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I'm wondering if these peat fires are the first triggers of rapid climate change. Will these fires trigger or speed up other feedback loops? I presume they will, so these fires are really bad news for the planet... The first domino has fallen...
indeed.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05457-1
Wildfire as a major driver of recent permafrost thaw in boreal peatlands
Carolyn M. Gibson et. al.
Abstract
Permafrost vulnerability to climate change may be underestimated unless effects of wildfire are considered. Here we assess impacts of wildfire on soil thermal regime and rate of thermokarst bog expansion resulting from complete permafrost thaw in western Canadian permafrost peatlands. Effects of wildfire on permafrost peatlands last for 30 years and include a warmer and deeper active layer, and spatial expansion of continuously thawed soil layers (taliks). These impacts on the soil thermal regime are associated with a tripled rate of thermokarst bog expansion along permafrost edges. Our results suggest that wildfire is directly responsible for 2200 ± 1500 km2 (95% CI) of thermokarst bog development in the study region over the last 30 years, representing ~25% of all thermokarst bog expansion during this period. With increasing fire frequency under a warming climate, this study emphasizes the need to consider wildfires when projecting future circumpolar permafrost thaw.
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https://www.dw.com/en/russia-declares-emergency-over-huge-wildfires-in-siberia/a-49817454
Russia declares emergency over huge wildfires in Siberia
Raging wildfires have swallowed up an area bigger that the state of Belgium across Siberia, with smoke enveloping cities. Observers and activists slammed the Russian government for not responding earlier.
An area of 3.2 million hectares (7.9 million acres) was engulfed by forest fires in remote regions of Russia on Monday. In comparison, the total surface of the nation of Belgium is 3.07 million hectares.
With fires raging for days, immense clouds of smoke reached large population centers, including Russia's third biggest city, Novosibirsk. Authorities declared emergencies in several regions.
"The smoke is horrible," pensioner Raisa Brovkina told state television after being hospitalized in Novosibirsk.
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Tor...reading the peat fire links, is it just me or does every new story always contain info that makes things worse then they appeared to be? I can't remember the last time I read an article about AGW where I said "Boy that's good".
Unfortunately, that is a reflection of the consistent underestimation of the severity of the problem, the exclusion of serious and important feedback loops from the projections; combined with the response of leaders and people all over the world failing to recognize the severity or even the reality of the problems we face.
Only once we come to grips with reality AND do meaningful things to respond will there be any chance for stories that make any of us feel like “Boy that’s good.”
But even then, we have almost certainly pushed the world over the edge and into the transition to a new dramatically different state. It is likely under those circumstances that we will not reach a place where we can honestly say “Boy that’s good” in any living human’s lifetime.
More importantly and more fundamentally, this is not about feelings and emotions. Those certainly come into play for each of us. The problem though is a very very real tangible problem. Changing how we feel to being more positive will not only do nothing to resolve any of the issues we now face, doing so will distract us from the urgent needs.
Sam
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Only once we come to grips with reality AND do meaningful things to respond will there be any chance for stories that make any of us feel like “Boy that’s good.”
There are reasons to say "Boy that's good". Go to the Tesla thread or the renewables thread. There is movement in the right direction and it is accelerating. It is far too slow and we will need geoengineering, but there is hope for all of us yet. There is a lot we can do in a decade, even if under fire from climate change.
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Siberian Smoke Heading Toward U.S. and Canada
https://phys.org/news/2019-07-siberian-canada.html
... "The smoke looks to be arriving late tonight (July 30), but definitely by July 31, 2019," said Colin Seftor, atmospheric scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. The date on the image refers to west of the dateline (the Siberian portion of the image.)
(https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_width/public/thumbnails/image/colin.jpg?itok=x5PI0tI4)
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Observers and activists slammed the Russian government for not responding earlier.
And short of a declaration of emergency, exactly what should be expected of the Russian government. These fires are in remote areas and, for the most part, cannot be fought.
We are going to see similar complaints in the U.S. from wealthy communities along the lengthy shorelines and there will be little the government can do.
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Observers and activists slammed the Russian government for not responding earlier.
And short of a declaration of emergency, exactly what should be expected of the Russian government. These fires are in remote areas and, for the most part, cannot be fought.
We are going to see similar complaints in the U.S. from wealthy communities along the lengthy shorelines and there will be little the government can do.
Yes, there is no way to put those fires out. You cannot send people and with just planes you achieve nothing...
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The Amazon may follow in 5-10 years
Drought-Driven Wildfires On Rise In Amazon Basin, Upping CO2 Release
https://news.mongabay.com/2018/02/drought-driven-wildfires-on-rise-in-amazon-basin-upping-co2-release/
- Severe droughts are expected to become more common in the Brazilian Amazon as natural oceanic cycles are made more extreme by human-induced climate change.
- In this new climate paradigm, limiting deforestation alone will not be sufficient to reduce fires and curb carbon emissions, scientists say. The maintenance of healthy, intact, unfragmented forests is vital to providing resilience against further increases in Amazon fires.
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Amazon Deforestation is Accelerating Under Bolsonaro, and Scientists Fear a Tipping Point
https://qz.com/1676400/brazils-amazon-deforestation-accelerating-under-jair-bolsonaro/
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Siberian wildfires have made it to Bloomberg News.
I am sure I read that the Russian Taiga is a carbon sink ranking alongside the Amazon?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-31/putin-sends-military-to-fight-wildfires-raging-in-siberia?srnd=politics-vp
Putin Sends Military to Fight Wildfires Raging in Siberia
By Jake Rudnitsky
31 July 2019, 14:58 BST
Russia declares state of emergency in four Siberian regions
Fires are burning across a territory the size of Belgium
President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian military to help battle wildfires burning across a territory the size of Belgium after record high temperatures turned huge patches of forest into a tinderbox.
Russia has declared a state of emergency in four Siberian districts because of the fires, following mounting pressure to act as plumes of smoke visible from space stretched across the region to the Urals mountains thousands of miles away. Putin told the Defense Ministry to join the fight after a meeting with Emergencies Minister Yevgeny Zinichev, the Kremlin said Wednesday.
The mobilization marks a reversal from the hands-off approach that allowed the fires to spread during a hot summer in which June temperatures in the affected regions were about 10 degrees Fahrenheit (6 degrees Celsius) above the 30-year average from 1981 to 2010. There were efforts to fight just 107,000 hectares (264,400 acres) of blazes out of a total of 3 million hectares that were burning Wednesday, according to Russia’s Federal Forestry Agency.
Greenpeace Russia spokesman Andrey Allakhverdov said the fires are on track to be the worst since the government eased rules on containing blazes in 2015, when it created zones of control in which the authorities were effectively allowed to ignore conflagrations that didn’t threaten to damage property or lives.
“Due to climate change, we’re seeing a much higher frequency of extreme weather events,” said Oksana Tarasova, head of the World Meteorological Organization’s Atmospheric Research and Environment Department in Geneva. “We’ve seen longer periods without precipitation and with higher temperatures that create the ideal conditions for these fires.”
Tarasova said emissions from the fires, which were on par with the annual output of a small country, were less a concern than the destruction of forests that serve as vital carbon storage sinks for the planet.
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So how much has this wildfire/peatfire been included in all models so far. The wildfires added up over certain areas put out CO2 equal to countries (think i have seen Belgium and Sweden mentioned) then there is the peat fires which do not stop and they might be very damaging even when you do not see them.
They seem like a recurring problem and the planetary climate trend says why not?
We might have severely underestimated sink/source at the level where it mattters.
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Such a great amount of discussion about the impact of these wildfires on the arctic melt situation.Nobody mentions the one impact that has yet to be quantified in any rational way.The amount of actual HEAT produced per square mile of burned forest and a relative example to amount of heat given off per square mile by an unburned forest.Thus giving an observer the ability to calculate how much extra heat is entering the regions around the arctic during major wildfire events.A tremendous amount of heat to be sure but enough to influence the weather patterns?
Keep your Atomic Bomb analogies to yourself!
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The "Smoking Hills" of the North West Territories have been burning for a very long time. Coal and sulfur don't make stable neighbors and the fires had been burning long before Franklin noted them in 1826.
Rain might douse the fire, but it also fires up the sulfur. The nearest village is named Paulatuk or Place of Coal.
Burning Mountain in New South Wales, Australia is a coal fire that has been burning for ~6,000 years while in Germany Brennender Berg's coal seam was only ignited in 1688.
I assume that more than a few of these peat fires may continue for an equally long duration.
Terry
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Also : The world’s longest burning fires: China's unseen story (https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/6296-The-world-s-longest-burning-fires-China-s-unseen-story)
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Canada's arctic wildfires:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/arctic-wildfires-1.5228945
Siberian wildfires:
http://news.trust.org/item/20190730151546-0a06p/ and https://www.dw.com/en/russias-putin-orders-troops-to-help-fight-siberia-wildfires/a-49832130
See them from spaaaaace:
https://metro.co.uk/2019/07/31/arctic-engulfed-wildfires-huge-can-see-space-10489042/
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So how much has this wildfire/peatfire been included in all models so far. The wildfires added up over certain areas put out CO2 equal to countries (think i have seen Belgium and Sweden mentioned)
I find these "equal to emissions from Country X" comparisons dumb and unhelpful. I saw one report saying that the output of arctic fires in June totaled about 50 megatons. That's about 0.26% of total annual global CO2 emissions (if I got my orders of magnitude right!). Assuming that number has now doubled or tripled or more, fires in the north may be contributing on the order of 1% of emissions due to the burning of fossil fuels.
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Giant sinkholes appear as wildfires rage near Siberia (https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2019/08/02/siberia-wildfires-pleitgen-pkg-newday-vpx.cnn)
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Giant sinkholes appear as wildfires rage near Siberia (https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2019/08/02/siberia-wildfires-pleitgen-pkg-newday-vpx.cnn)
I believe fighting the fires that threaten towns and cities is the same policy that Canada uses when we fight forest fires. I'd assume that it's the same in Alaska and other northern forests.
Terry
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So how much has this wildfire/peatfire been included in all models so far. The wildfires added up over certain areas put out CO2 equal to countries (think i have seen Belgium and Sweden mentioned)
I find these "equal to emissions from Country X" comparisons dumb and unhelpful. I saw one report saying that the output of arctic fires in June totaled about 50 megatons. That's about 0.26% of total annual global CO2 emissions (if I got my orders of magnitude right!). Assuming that number has now doubled or tripled or more, fires in the north may be contributing on the order of 1% of emissions due to the burning of fossil fuels.
We're up to ~120 megatons and counting from the Arctic fires That's about 0.3% of the 40 Gt global total or 1 day of extra emissions.
If you look at it as an isolated concealed event, not such a big deal.
But it ain't that. This is an example of a positive feedback, not an isolated event. By the time this thing burns out and you consider the lost CO2 uptake from those trees not being there in years to come, maybe this is a 1,000+ megaton event. And then you start adding in comparable events like sundry methane leaks and fires elsewhere and Japanese and Europeans buying millions of air conditioning units to cope with unprecedented heat.
and badda bing, badda boom.....shit starts getting away from us.
It's only 2019. We're just starting to see AGW react to the Great Acceleration. What we're seeing in the Arctic now is the work of AGW as a precocious child. A malevolent teenager is coming soon before we get the real deal.
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I now see that I had already made a guess at 100 megatons (and used 38 GT as my baseline) to arrive at 0.26%. Anyway, yes, it's an increasing feedback and not insignificant even at this level when it's imperative for annual emissions to be dropping.
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Does anyone know what could cause these high levels of carbon monoxide? Could this "hotspot" be a peat fire?
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surface/level/overlay=cosc/orthographic=-52.10,113.69,3000/loc=122.788,65.764
This spot also has the highest concentration of CO2 on the planet. 485 ppm. ???
Edit; There are a few other spots on the planet with higher concentrations. The world is on fire...
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surface/level/overlay=co2sc/orthographic=-55.53,114.11,3000/loc=123.300,66.032
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Siberian fires as big as Belgium, threaten more arctic melting:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g18NPYZccjk&fbclid=IwAR3auoMjEG0jBe_6nN1PpCx7LNvAhMKYW0vq0ZvawShvdxvzr4uiJ4lCLhQ
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California: Burn, Build, Repeat:
https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2019/08/burn-build-repeat-why-our-wildfire-policy-is-so-deadly/
The fires in the Arctic make AGW worse which makes Arctic fires worse:
https://www.outsideonline.com/2400498/arctic-fires-creating-feedback-loop-climate
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Siberian wildfires meet ammo depot. https://www.facebook.com/wedonthavetime.org/videos/472966976836926/?__tn__=%2CdkCH-R-R&eid=ARDBbNjjjevZvy-Zyn1qBrTSjoIt7Qfd9aAgOXxCDb7CH01vUJpvqDFo20HjKrvtqJUzsOw3vki3be1j&hc_ref=ARTHrtaeRUl14fkEdTiD-f3YuBdk0SfcA0Z8Rc44bzUie50XhATr5VuLiGiQvGHMNZ4&fref=nf&hc_location=group
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Smoke from wildfires now covers an area "bigger than the EU" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/12/arctic-wildfires-smoke-cloud
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I was wandering around a bit of ASIF history and found - from 2013
silkman
Siberian Fires
« on: June 30, 2013, 08:56:23 AM »
MODIS this morning has a very clear image of wild fires in Siberia with the smoke plume spreading hundreds of miles to the East.
Though these are a part of the natural course of events it's concerning to consider the implications of more frequent conflagrations on this scale in such a remote area, particularly to arctic albedo.
Things have got a lot worse in the last 6 years, and can no longer be considered as "a part of the natural course of events ". 6 years is not a long time.
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Things have got a lot worse in the last 6 years
Indeed. Worsening ever more. There'll be no end to the worsening for the next couple of centuries I guess. As long as GMST keeps rising. Or until the forests are gone of course.
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Things have got a lot worse in the last 6 years
Indeed. Worsening ever more. There'll be no end to the worsening for the next couple of centuries I guess. As long as GMST keeps rising. Or until the forests are gone of course.
Or until the humans are (mostly) gone ;D
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I read recently- somewhere, maybe even here- that because we have altered most of the very fire prone savanna around the world, that total annual area burned has declined over the past few centuries.
This surprised me- probably mostly because I live in the boreal and fire season is definitely getting longer.
So I noodled around to look for evidence, pro or con and what I found is....it's complicated.
Yes it does appear that global fire incidence is lower now than a couple of hundred years ago, but there are strong regional variations.
Complicating my search is the fact that the denier-sphere has, naturally, latched onto this trend as evidence for whatever thing it is that they are denying.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society is pretty legit.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4874420/ (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4874420/)
Extract:
"Thus, while there are clearly some noteworthy trends in area burned for specific recent periods and regions, the general perception of increasing fire around the world is not supported by the data available to date. This does not withstand the observation of increasing fire season length in some areas [50], which is an important contributor to the increase in area burned during this century in the northwestern USA [43,46], boreal Canada and Alaska [51,52]. A future lengthening of the fire season is also anticipated for many other regions of the globe, with a potential associated increase of fire activity [19,53–56]. It is, however, important to recognize that in addition to direct climatic factors, other factors such as fuel availability and human influence will also strongly affect future fire activity [57,58].
Thus the widespread use of limited datasets or excessive extrapolation of short-term regional trends may go some way in explaining the widely held view of generally increasing fire around the world. The wider impacts of fire on society examined in §3b–d, however, may be even more relevant in driving the overall perceptions of fire trends."
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Fires are getting too severe for species that require fires. Black backed woodpecker next on endangered species list (if Trump doesn't end it)?
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/2019/08/forest-fires-too-intense-adapted-woodpeckers/
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Second out of control wildfire in Gran Canaria this year.
https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/08/19/inenglish/1566205037_427383.html?autoplay=0
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Amazon fires: Brazilian rainforest burning at record rate, space agency warns
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-49415973
Brazil's Amazon rainforest has seen a record number of fires this year, according to new data from the country's space research agency.
The National Institute for Space Research (Inpe) said its satellite data showed an 83% increase on the same period in 2018.
It comes weeks after President Jair Bolsonaro fired the head of the agency amid rows over its deforestation data.
Smoke from the fires caused a blackout in the city of Sao Paulo on Monday.
The daytime blackout, which lasted for about an hour, came after strong winds brought in smoke from forest fires burning in the states of Amazonas and Rondonia, more than 2,700km (1,700 miles) away.
Conservationists have blamed Mr Bolsonaro, saying he has encouraged loggers and farmers to clear the land.
Inpe said it had detected more than 72,000 fires between January and August - the highest number since records began in 2013. It said it had observed more than 9,500 forest fires since Thursday, mostly in the Amazon region.
more at the link.
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Smoke from Amazon Wildfires Plunges Sao Paulo Into Darkness In Middle of Day
https://mobile.twitter.com/Gianvitor/status/1163526142088876038
https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/scienceandhealth/2019/08/cold-front-and-wild-fires-cause-sao-paulo-to-go-dark-during-the-day.shtml
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ECWlzm_WsAA-EcE?format=jpg&name=small)
Morpheus: ... We don't know who struck first, us or them. But we do know it was us that scorched the sky. - Matrix (1999)
The largest city in Brazil was plunged into darkness in the middle of the day on Monday after billowing smoke from ongoing wildfires in the Amazon region combined with a weather pattern, creating an ominous, dark blanket over the metropolis.
Thick, black clouds moved over Sao Paulo around 3 p.m. and stayed over the area for more than an hour.
Officials from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology, known as Inment, said the phenomenon was due to the combination of several factors: a cold front, humid air, heavy clouds, and winds bringing particulate matter from ongoing wildfires in Brazil, Paraguay and Bolivia.
"The darkening of the sky was quite intense," Inmet meteorologist Franco Nadal Villela told the Folha de S. Paulo newspaper.
The World Meteorological Organization said Tuesday on Twitter that atmospheric monitoring data shows smoke from fires across the Amazonian region has caused smoke to reach the Atlantic coast, including Sao Paulo.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ECbWRTaWkAACaId?format=jpg&name=small)
https://dailyhive.com/mapped/sao-paulo-smoke-amazon-rainforest-fires
This year Brazil has had the highest number of forest fires since 2013. As of Sunday (18), there were already 71,497 fires burning in the country. The record was 2016, with 66,622 fires.
The month of August is also breaking records for the past seven years, with 32,932 fires, up 264% from the same period in 2018. The figure is also about 50% higher than the previous year.
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Smoke Has Blotted Out the Sun in São Paulo as the Amazon Burns
https://earther.gizmodo.com/smoke-has-blotted-out-the-sun-in-sao-paulo-as-the-amazo-1837413488
What began as a “day of fire” a week and a half ago has now turned daytime skies in São Paulo an inky black. The Amazon has been in deep, deep trouble ever since far-right president Jair Bolsnaro took over running Brazil. Advocates feared his regime would commit ecological “genocide” in the Amazon and with each passing month, those fears are becoming reality.
The Brazilian state of Pará saw a huge burst of fire activity last week after farmers called for a “day of fire” on August 10, according to Brazilian paper Folha de S. Paolo. INPE spotted hundreds of fires across the state as farmers lit up rainforest, a practice often used to clear land to put in mono crops like soybeans or open land for pastures and cattle farming. The fires have also sent carbon dioxide emissions spiraling well above normal, according to data from the European Union’s Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service.
“The recent increase of the deforestation combined with fires could exponentially affect Amazonia by liberating CO2 and other greenhouse gases,” Vitor Gomes, an environmental scientist at the Federal University of Pará in Brazil, told Earther.
Those fires, along with others in the state of Amazonas to the northwest, have continued burning for the past 10 days, unleashing a massive plume of smoke. Prevailing winds on Monday and Tuesday took that smoke and transported it nearly 2,000 miles to southeast. That blackened São Paulo skies on Monday, creating eerie scenes like darkened streets and cars driving with headlights in mid-afternoon.
The vibe is reminiscent of last year, when smoke from wildfires did the exact same thing in British Columbia. But in some ways, the Brazilian situation is more ominous. After all, the fires in British Columbia weren’t inspired by a fascist president looking to open the forest up for business.
... Eventually, rising temperatures and drought coupled with deforestation could permanently alter one of the world’s most iconic ecosystems, effectively cleaving the Amazon in two. It’s not like the damage can be easily undone. Once the Amazon is gone, it’s gone... , meaning climate change could accelerate there and over the rest of the planet.
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"The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured these images of several fires burning in the states of Rondônia, Amazonas, Pará, and Mato Grosso on August 11 and August 13, 2019.
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Sao Paulo from Worldview, Monday ...
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-52.03609092558956,-27.113768909906003,-45.70796592558956,-17.973143909906003&t=2019-08-19-T04%3A09%3A28Z&l=Graticule,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines
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As wildfires get worse, insurers pull back from riskiest areas
A growing number of Western homeowners are being dropped by their insurance companies, prompting warnings from officials and worries about what comes next.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/20/climate/fire-insurance-renewal.html
AUG 22
Bigger, more frequent wildfires turning Canada’s boreal forest into source of carbon: researchers
https://globalnews.ca/news/5794851/wildfires-climate-change-boreal-forest/
Bigger, hotter wildfires are turning Canada’s vast boreal forest into a significant new source of climate-changing greenhouse gases, scientists say.
The shift, which may have already happened, could force firefighters to change how they battle northern blazes, said Merritt Turetsky, an ecologist at the University of Guelph and co-author of a paper that appeared in the science journal Nature on Wednesday.
Amazon rainforest fires leave São Paulo in the dark
https://news.mongabay.com/2019/08/amazon-rainforest-fires-leave-sao-paulo-in-the-dark/
The number of forest fires in Brazil soared 85 percent between January 1 and August 20 compared to a year ago, according to data from the Brazilian National Institute of Space Research (INPE). Roughly half of fire occurrences of this year were registered in the last 20 days, INPE data showed.
In a technical note released in the evening of August 20, the Brazilian NGO IPAM (Institute of Environmental Research in Amazonia) said the occurrences are directly connected to deforestation as it didn’t find any evidence to argue that the fires could be a consequence of a lack of rain.
Fires in Brazil came to spotlight since the afternoon of August 19, when São Paulo’s skies suddenly turned black, spurring discussion about the linkage between the fires and the phenomenon. Since then, “Amazon Fires” are trending on Twitter under the hashtag #PrayforAmazonas.
See a real-time map of all the fires burning down the Amazon
https://www.fastcompany.com/90394036/see-a-real-time-map-of-all-the-fires-burning-down-the-amazon
A map from Global Forest Watch, a project from the nonprofit World Resources Institute, shows fire alerts in near real time, pulling data from NASA satellites that track changes in heat and brightness, and then running the data through an algorithm to determine if it’s a fire. (They technically map “fire alerts,” because it’s not possible to tell whether one dot on the map is its own fire or part of an adjacent one). The map is updated every 12 hours.
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Brazil CO2 and CO surface concentration (from Nullschool).
A tragedy. :-\
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surface/level/overlay=cosc/orthographic=-61.07,-10.27,601/loc=-57.838,-19.401 (https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surface/level/overlay=cosc/orthographic=-61.07,-10.27,601/loc=-57.838,-19.401)
On CO2 be careful, reddish colors means low CO2, bluish colors mean high CO2.
P. S. There are several places on the world with high concentrations, but the Amazon should be a sink, not a producer of CO and CO2.
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And it looks like the african forests are not burning less. This is going to be a disaster.
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Fast-moving wildfire erupts in California, forcing thousands to evacuate
Mountain fire races across hundreds of acres in just hours as wildfire season looms large over the state
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/22/mountain-fire-california-evacuation-shasta-latest
Quote:
A fast-moving wildfire that broke out on Thursday in northern California has forced the evacuation of nearly 4,000 residents, racing across at least 600 acres within just a few hours, officials say.
The Mountain fire, which erupted on the outskirts of a national forest in northern California, has threatened 1,110 homes and structures. As of Friday morning the fire was 40% contained , according to Cal Fire.
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Amazon fires: the tribes fighting to save their dying rainforest
A video by the Guardian (<2m):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upU1hlPXBpY
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Well, just pointing out, the Amazonas rainforest is a rainy area largely because of the evaporation from the massive amount of plant life. As it looks like they want to change it to contain much less plants, the amount of rain they'll get is going to diminish quite a lot. By how much, you'd have to consult a specialist in the tropical weather and plants.
My guess would be it decrease in rain is going to be less than linear, as the planetary tropical waves bring some moisture from the Atlantic, but make no mistake, this system isn't going to miraculously get more active, rather the increase in S-N winds would direct the moisture towards higher latitudes. Traditionally slash and burned soil gives some 5 years of diminishing crops, so much of the now cleared land will be pretty much useless in, say 7 years.
And no, there's absolutely no guarantee that the rainforest will ever grow back. As the Arctic Ice biome is slowly vanishing before our eyes, we might also get a new biome in Brazil, a stunted growth extremely hot savanna.
Guardian attempt to tell people about this:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/31/amazon-rainforest-deforestation-weather-droughts-report
Plenty more studies if one cares to search.
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Brazil says it lacks resources to fight Amazon wildfires as dispute rages over who is to blame
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-23/bolsonaro-says-brazil-lacks-resources-to-fight-amazon-fires/11440998
The Bishops Conference for Latin America expressed concern about what it called "a tragedy", and on Thursday called on countries to take immediate action to protect the rainforest and the communities that live in and around it.
"We urge the governments of the Amazon countries, especially Brazil and Bolivia, the United Nations and the international community to take serious measures to save the world's lungs," the Bishops Conference said.
"If the Amazon suffers, the world suffers."
Glad to see my Church speaking out!
What the Amazon fires mean for wild animals
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/2019/08/how-the-amazon-rainforest-wildfires-will-affect-wild-animals/
For the thousands of mammal, reptile, amphibian, and bird species that live in the Amazon, the wildfires’ impact will come in two phases: one immediate, one long-term.
“In the Amazon, nothing is adapted to fire,” says William Magnusson, a researcher specializing in biodiversity monitoring at the National Institute of Amazonian Research (INPA) in Manaus, Brazil.
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Well, just pointing out, the Amazonas rainforest is a rainy area largely because of the evaporation from the massive amount of plant life.
Another pattern is the spatial pattern of deforestation.
See graphic in reply 200. The fire network looks just like light at night maps in more populated areas. They will connect up the blotches that are not connected yet and thus the forest gets cut too pieces exposing more edges which dry out quicker.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,755.msg224453.html#new
BTW i also recommend reading post 189 on the previous post of that thread because it explains the incentive to burn down the forest.
And ( #199):
It's Not Just Brazil's Amazon - Bolivia's Vital Forests Are Burning Out of Control, Too
Up to 800,000 hectares of the unique Chiquitano forest were burned to the ground in Bolivia between August 18 and August 23. That's more forest than is usually destroyed across the country in two years.
...
The Chiquitano dry forest in Bolivia was the largest healthy tropical dry forest in the world. It's now unclear whether it will retain that status. The forest is home to Indigenous peoples as well as iconic wildlife such as jaguars, giant armadillos, and tapirs. Some species in the Chiquitano are found nowhere else on Earth.
https://www.sciencealert.com/it-s-not-just-brazil-s-amazon-bolivia-s-vital-forests-are-on-fire-too
I want to add a comment but i just can´t find a way to state how appalled i am by all this.
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We look at the short-term - CO2 emissions etc.
The question is (see above post) what will be the long-term effects?
It used to be assumed that after a wildfire - there is all that ash on the ground - fertiliser, plus lot of open spaces, promoting regrowth the following year at a furious pace. i.e. the forest or bush or grassland would heal itself.
But with climate change and more frequent and widespread wildfire events, will the recovery be harder and harder to occur? And if the forest stays dry in regions with a lot of peat - will the underground peat fires persist and spread?
I don't know the answers to these questions - anybody got any links to research papers ?
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I don´t think peat fires need to stay dry, they just need to be ignited.
There is so much playing a role in this that in a way reading the old research papers posted here might give a clue but if you really figure it out you can probably submit a paper instead of a post at the end.
One thing that is obvious is that climate change is on the march so your forests are not regrowing in the same circumstances. Also usually nowadays the burn more, harder and longer so the ´naked patches´ are bigger. A big scar in an even bigger forest heals quicker then a wasteland.
With the Amazon down the next big targets are the Congo which has rare earths and peat layers that will make Indonesia look like a BBQ.
And probably PNG (rather random link there but it has some land use info).
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/08/25/sustaining-indigenous-forests-with-blockchain-technology/
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From 2014: Drought Bites as Amazon’s ‘Flying Rivers’ Dry Up
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/sep/15/drought-bites-as-amazons-flying-rivers-dry-up
Some Brazilian scientists say the absence of rain that has dried up rivers and reservoirs in central and southeast Brazil is not just a quirk of nature, but a change brought about by a combination of the continuing deforestation of the Amazon and global warming.
This combination, they say, is reducing the role of the Amazon rainforest as a giant “water pump”, releasing billions of litres of humidity from the trees into the air in the form of vapour.
Meteorologist Jose Marengo, a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, first coined the phrase “flying rivers” to describe these massive volumes of vapour that rise from the rainforest, travel west, and then − blocked by the Andes − turn south.
In 2009 Antonio Nobre, a Brazilian climate scientist, stated that without the flying river, much of southern Brazil, which produces approximately 70% of the country's GNP, would be arid desert. Clearing the Amazon forest for logging and agriculture is likely to result in lower yields elsewhere. Smoke from the fires set by some farmers to clear land sends particles into the atmosphere, resulting in diminished precipitation, which in turn leaves the trees, which have evolved in wet conditions, vulnerable to fire. The drought in southern Brazil in 2010 is believed to be due to the drying up of the flying rivers, and the even worse 2014-5 drought is also attributed to this.
In an interview with the journal Valor Economica, he said: “Destroying the Amazon to advance the agricultural frontier is like shooting yourself in the foot. The Amazon is a gigantic hydrological pump that brings the humidity of the Atlantic Ocean into the continent and guarantees the irrigation of the region.”
“Of course, we need agriculture,” he said. “But without trees there would be no water, and without water there is no food.
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Researchers find link between Amazon fire risk, devastating hurricanes
https://phys.org/news/2015-08-link-amazon-devastating-hurricanes.html
"North Atlantic hurricanes and Amazon fires are related to one another through shared linkages to ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical Atlantic Ocean," he said.
The mechanics of the ocean-fire link in the Amazon are fairly straightforward. When the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal, less rain falls in the southern Amazon. As a consequence, groundwater is not fully recharged by the end of the rainy season. Coming into the next dry spell, when there's less water stored away in the soil, plants can't evaporate and transpire as much water out through their stems and leaves. As a result, the atmosphere gets drier and drier, creating conditions in which fires can spread rapidly. Ground-clearing fires set by farmers for agricultural purposes can easily jump from fields to dense forests under these conditions.
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Fire retardant drop from aircraft. SUV is smashed!
CAL FIRE (@CAL_FIRE) 8/23/19, 5:14 PM
This test was w/ 9,000 pounds of fire retardant. Imagine what could happen w/ a 170,000 pound low drop. Aircraft flying through smoke can have a difficult time seeing you. Help alleviate risk. Be aware of your surroundings. #HeadsUpClearOut Full video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONdSoiI4zIA
https://twitter.com/cal_fire/status/1165009443756470272
1-min vid at tweet. Full video is about 5 minutes long.
——
Glendale, California. Fire in the video at the link was limited to uninhabited area near highway. Dry conditions are forecast for the western U.S. for several more days at least.
Aug 25, 2019: Freeway 134 Glendale,Ca #Glendalefire / Twitter
https://mobile.twitter.com/purpleondapus/status/1165774315603652608
45 second vid at link.
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We For News (@WeForNews) 8/26/19, 7:05 AM
#BREAKING G7 to finance fire-fighting aircraft for Amazon: French presidency-AFP
Dave Toussaint (@engineco16) 8/26/19, 7:12 AM
Interesting statement. So where do we find all of these planes?
https://twitter.com/wefornews/status/1165943327037878273
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We're horrified when we learn of wildfires - yet expect applause when we burn pelletised wood?
Terry
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The propaganda is taking hold
ORWELLIAN BRAZIL: ‘THERE IS NO FIRE’ (https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5d633428e4b0b59d2576d02d)
An airplane pilot who declined to give his name accused space agency scientists in the United States of releasing doctored satellite photos of the Amazon.
“There is so much sensationalism. The images of Nasa — that show fire — are manipulated,” the pilot said. “I have been flying since Monday and have not seen anything.”
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... “I have been flying since Monday and have not seen anything.”
Maybe he's blind? ...
(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/e0/b8/6c/e0b86c7fd5dfc4a3c4bc8cbe94856f45.jpg)
-------------------------------------
NASA's AIRS Maps Carbon Monoxide from Brazil Fires
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-nasa-airs-carbon-monoxide-brazil.html
New data from NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument, aboard the Aqua satellite, shows the movement high in the atmosphere of carbon monoxide associated with fires in the Amazon region of Brazil.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/13/Carbon_monoxide_from_Amazon_fires.gif/640px-Carbon_monoxide_from_Amazon_fires.gif)
This time series maps carbon monoxide at an altitude of 18,000 feet (5,500 meters) from Aug. 8-22, 2019. As the series progresses, the carbon monoxide plume grows in the northwest Amazon region then drifts in a more concentrated plume toward the southeastern part of the country.
Each "day" in the series is made by averaging three days' worth of measurements, a technique used to eliminate data gaps. Green indicates concentrations of carbon monoxide at approximately 100 parts per billion by volume (ppbv); yellow, at about 120 ppbv; and dark red, at about 160 ppbv. Local values can be significantly higher.
A pollutant that can travel large distances, carbon monoxide can persist in the atmosphere for about a month. At the high altitude mapped in these images, the gas has little effect on the air we breathe; however, strong winds can carry it downward to where it can significantly impact air quality. Carbon monoxide plays a role in both air pollution and climate change.
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The Amazon Fires Reveal the Dysfunction of the Global Community
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2019/08/amazon-fires-reveal-dysfunction-global-community/159426/
The case for territorial incursion in the Amazon is far stronger than the justifications for most war.
When Jair Bolosonaro won Brazil’s presidential election last year, having run on a platform of deforestation, David Wallace-Wells asked, “How much damage can one person do to the planet?” Bolsonaro didn’t pour lighter fluid to ignite the flames now ravishing the Amazon, but with his policies and rhetoric, he might as well have. The destruction he inspired—and allowed to rage with his days of stubborn unwillingness to douse the flames—has placed the planet at a hinge moment in its ecological history. Unfortunately, the planet doesn’t have a clue about how it should respond.
In part, the problem is that so much of the world is now governed by leaders who share Bolsonaro’s sensibility. Even before Bolsonaro presided over the incineration of the world’s storehouse of oxygen, he led a dubious regime. His path to power began with the corrupt impeachment of Dilma Rousseff, followed by the arrest of his higher-polling electoral rival.
In part, the problem is the dismal state of international institutions, which haven’t been so tattered since World War II. In the face of global critics begging Bolsonaro to stop the destruction of the Amazon, he shouts about the threats to Brazil’s sovereignty. For that complaint to land, he would need democratic legitimacy, and this revanchist has none; yet those critics do nothing more than sputter inconsequential rage.
Like Donald Trump, he squeezes personal joy from his confrontations with foreign leaders and NGOs, posing as the manly enemy of the effete elites. In other words, he’s letting the fires burn, at least in part, to troll his enemies. He’s cutting out the world’s lungs for the sake of owning the libs.
... If a country obtains chemical or biological weapons, the rest of the world tends to react with fury—or at least it did in the not-so-distant past. ... The destruction of the Amazon is arguably far more dangerous than the weapons of mass destruction that have triggered a robust response. The consequences of the unfolding disaster—which will extinguish species and hasten a worst-case climate crisis—extend for eternity.
To lose a fifth of the Amazon to deforestation would trigger a process known as “dieback,” releasing what The Intercept calls a “doomsday bomb of stored carbon.”
If there were a functioning global community, it would be wrestling with how to more aggressively save the Amazon, and acknowledging that the battle against climate change demands not only new international cooperation but, perhaps, the weakening of traditional concepts of the nation-state. ... In the meantime, the planet chokes on old notions of sovereignty.
-----------------------
Brazil’s Bolsonaro Is Endangering the World
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2019/08/brazils-amazon-policies-endanger-world/159425/
As a store of carbon, the Amazon is fundamental to the survival of every person. If destroyed or degraded, the giant rain forest is simply beyond humanity’s ability to get back. Even if people were to replant half a continent’s worth of trees, the diversity of creatures across Amazonia, once lost, will not be replenished for roughly 10 million years. And that is 33 times longer than Homo sapiens, as a species, has existed.
-------------------------------
G7: Trump Skips Talks On Climate Crisis and Amazon Fires
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/26/donald-trump-skips-g7-talks-on-climate-crisis-and-amazon-fires
Donald Trump did not attend Monday’s crucial discussion on climate and biodiversity at the G7 meeting of international leaders in Biarritz, missing talks on how to deal with the Amazon rainforest fires as well as new ways to cut carbon emissions.
Reporters noticed at the start of the session that the US president’s chair was empty.
Trump was later asked by reporters covering a meeting with the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, whether he had attended the climate session. He replied: “We’re having it in a little while.” He did not appear to hear when a reporter told him it had just taken place.
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I've been trying to find out whether increased wildfires are in the CMIP models
account for forest fire feedbacks. I wrote Carbon Footprints & Wildfires (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/carbon-footprints-wildfires/) just before the Amazon Headlined.
My latest score is
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EC92Uz2XYAANB8i?format=jpg&name=small).
Corrections and improvements welcome.
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Other than CO2 increase isn't any other feedback associated with forest fires captured by the land use sub models
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... “I have been flying since Monday and have not seen anything.”
Maybe he's blind? ...
<snip>
Or, it’s so smokey, he’s flying purely on instruments because there’s nothing to see out the windows but clouds and smoke. :-\
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Deforestation from space:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1165184384867192832
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I've been trying to find out whether increased wildfires are in the CMIP models
account for forest fire feedbacks. I wrote Carbon Footprints & Wildfires (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/carbon-footprints-wildfires/) just before the Amazon Headlined.
My latest score is
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EC92Uz2XYAANB8i?format=jpg&name=small).
Corrections and improvements welcome.
I put the wildfire feedbacks into the backstory for The Climate Trail game, because I read that one major California wildfire (say Paradise) offsets all the annual gains in reducing CO2 emissions in the state.
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As Amazon burns, fires in next-door Bolivia also wreak havoc
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/25/world/americas/bolivia-fires-amazon.html?action=click&module=Latest&pgtype=Homepage
The fires have engulfed the country’s largest city in smoke, and are threatening villages, productive farms, and endangered species.
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‘Worst of wildfires still to come’ despite Brazil claiming crisis is under control
Forestry expert warns annual burning season had yet to fully play out and calls for urgent steps to reduce potential damage
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/28/brazil-amazon-wildfires-worst-to-come
Excerpts:
The fires raging in the Brazilian Amazon are likely to intensify over the coming weeks, a leading environmental expert has warned, despite government claims the situation had been controlled.
About 80,000 blazes have been detected in Brazil this year – more than half in the Amazon region – although on Saturday far-right president Jair Bolsonaro claimed the situation was “returning to normal”.
“The worst of the fire is still to come,” wrote Tasso Azevedo, a forest engineer and environmentalist who coordinates the deforestation monitoring group MapBiomas.
At a summit of Amazon governors on Tuesday – supposedly convened to discuss responses to the fires – Bolsonaro repeatedly attacked environmentalists and indigenous activists who he claimed were holding back Brazil’s economy.
Many, though not all, of the Amazon governors backed Bolsonaro’s vision for the region.
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Africa has more fires than Amazon
Experts Brace For An Apocalyptic Future As Earth’s Forests Burn To The Ground
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/experts-brace-for-an-apocalyptic-future-as-earths-forests-slowly-burn-to-the-ground
A world without forests would be an apocalyptic wasteland, and right now we are losing our forests at an astounding rate. As you read this article, more than 10,000 wildfires are ripping through forested areas of South America and Africa, and global leaders seem powerless to do anything about it. Most of the media attention has been on the horrific wildfires in the Amazon rainforest, and we are being told that the number of fires in Brazil is up 85 percent compared to last year. But the number of fires is actually much higher in Africa. In fact, it is being reported that there are “approximately five times as many wildfires burning in Africa than in the Amazon” at this point. Our planet is literally being destroyed right in front of our eyes, and a lot of people don’t seem to care.
Yeah, yeah , he's a bit of a crackpot but that doesn't mean he is wrong on this.
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Wildfires in Africa:
Yes, more fires are burning in sub-Saharan Africa than in Brazil. But context is important
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/27/world/africa-wildfires-amazon-trnd/index.html
African grasslands are meant to burn – we can’t let this distract from the Amazon fires
http://theconversation.com/african-grasslands-are-meant-to-burn-we-cant-let-this-distract-from-the-amazon-fires-122564
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America's Finest News Source reports on an isolated tribe revealed by wildfires in the Amazon rainforest:
"a small tribe of isolated rich sociopaths who are completely untouched by consequence ... a tiny society of wealthy agribusiness executives and financiers who have never before been visited by any ramifications for their actions,”
" living in a totally isolated bubble means that they’ll fight back against any integration efforts, so we have to proceed with caution"
" while we may not yet understand their greedy and reckless lifestyle, it’s theirs, and they want to preserve it."
https://www.theonion.com/amazon-deforestation-reveals-tribe-of-isolated-rich-soc-1837623801
sidd
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Experts explain how the Brazilian wildfires became so devastating and what can be done to save the rain forest
https://abcnews.go.com/International/experts-explain-brazilian-wildfires-devastating-save-rain-forest/story?id=65194500&cid=clicksource_4380645_null_card_hed
Wildfires in Brazil occur every year when farmers illegally start them to either clear new land for farming and cattle ranching or to prevent new vegetation from sprouting, which is common in a tropical, humid climate, Rachel Garrett, environmental policy professor at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, told ABC News.
The Amazon, Siberia, Indonesia: A world of fire
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/climate/fire-amazon-africa-siberia-worldwide.html
The growing intensity of wildfires and their spread to new corners of the globe raises fears that climate change is exacerbating the dangers.
Where there’s wildfire, there’s smoke. Protecting ‘clean-air refugees.’
https://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2019/0828/Where-there-s-wildfire-there-s-smoke.-Protecting-clean-air-refugees
Wildfire smoke has produced the lowest air quality readings ever recorded in a handful of Western cities the past two years, including San Francisco and Portland, Oregon. The rising public health concerns over the increasing size, frequency, and intensity of wildfires have prodded elected officials across the West to seek remedies. Their proposals advance practical solutions that, on another level, counter the dual sense of futility and isolation that climate change can provoke.
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America's Finest News Source reports on an isolated tribe revealed by wildfires in the Amazon rainforest:
"a small tribe of isolated rich sociopaths who are completely untouched by consequence ... a tiny society of wealthy agribusiness executives and financiers who have never before been visited by any ramifications for their actions,”
" living in a totally isolated bubble means that they’ll fight back against any integration efforts, so we have to proceed with caution"
" while we may not yet understand their greedy and reckless lifestyle, it’s theirs, and they want to preserve it."
https://www.theonion.com/amazon-deforestation-reveals-tribe-of-isolated-rich-soc-1837623801 (https://www.theonion.com/amazon-deforestation-reveals-tribe-of-isolated-rich-soc-1837623801)
sidd
Some have escaped and may be living in your neighborhood!
Remain calm, but report any egregious examples encountered.
Politicians and their immediate entourage usually are found to be indigenous sociopaths.
An unexpected outbreak has recently been sighted in Singapore!
Soundproofing your home and using Saran Wrap to seal window openings may prove a sufficient barrier.
Stay Vigilant, Stay Safe, Stay Home.
Terry
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Amazon fires show world heading for point of no return according to UN
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/amazon-fires-show-world-heading-for-point-of-no-return-says-un/ar-AAGz6NF
There are now 93,175 fires in Brazil right now and number keeps rising everyday.
http://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br/queimadas/portal-static/situacao-atual/
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Amazon fires 'extraordinarily concerning', warns UN biodiversity chief
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/30/amazon-fires-biodiversity-united-nations?CMP=share_btn_tw
Cristiana Paşca Palmer, the executive secretary of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity, said the destruction of the world’s biggest rainforest was a grim reminder that a fresh approach was needed to stabilise the climate and prevent ecosystems from declining to a point of no return, with dire consequences for humanity.
“The Amazon fires make the point that we face a very serious crisis,” she told the Guardian. “But it is not just the Amazon. We’re also concerned with what’s happening in other forests and ecosystems, and with the broader and rapid degradation of nature. The risk is we are moving towards the tipping points that scientists talk about that could produce cascading collapses of natural systems.”
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I don't mean to downplay any of the amazon burning, but when I look at most of the satellite data it looks like most of the burning is on the periphery, rather then the heart of the amazon? Am I wrong in this?
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You can see patterns of human in the data, see #892 and the link there.
They are probably connecting roads and freeing up better connected spaces.
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Bolivia is burning. https://watchers.news/2019/08/30/wildfires-bolivia-2019/
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‘It’s really close’: How the Amazon Rainforest could self-destruct
...
The Amazon’s plant life stores an estimated 100 billion tonnes of carbon. By comparison, every coal plant worldwide combined emitted 15 billion tonnes of carbon in 2017. So even if only a small proportion of the trees destroyed by large-scale deforestation burn, this longtime buffer against climate change could instead become a driver of it.
...
Asked for a best guess as to when the Amazon might cross that threshold, Thomas Lovejoy, a prominent environmental scientist, said he and another scientist based in Brazil, Carlos Nobre, had independently arrived at the same estimate: 20 per cent to 25 per cent deforestation.
The number was a “hip shot,” Mr Lovejoy said. And deforestation alone would not set off the cycle but was shorthand for a more complex set of drivers.
The Brazilian government’s own estimate for deforestation of the Amazon stands at 19.3 per cent, though some scientists consider this an under-count.
...
They subjected plots of rainforest to a decade of small but repeated fires like those set by farmers, and they found something alarming. After enough cycles, even if the fires caused only moderate damage, if rainfall dropped, the trees began dying off in huge numbers.
The proportion of plant life that died after a fire suddenly spiked from 5 per cent or 10 per cent to 60 per cent - sudden ecological death.
“We were able to document that, yes, the Amazon does have a tipping point,” Ms Balch said of her team’s experiment, which is still going on. “And it can happen in a very short period of time.”
But what most disturbed the scientists was how this phenomenon seemed to fit into a larger cycle - one that implicated the rainforest as a whole.
That cycle is triggered by four forces, all but three of them man-made: roads, fires, invasive grasses and climate change.
...
Repeated studies have found that deforestation leads to reductions in rainfall - and can even extend the annual dry season by a full month. There are already indications that Amazon deforestation will lead to catastrophic reductions in rainfall.
A study led by Claudia Stickler, an environmental economist, projected that, under current rates of deforestation in the area around Brazil’s Belo Monte hydroelectric dam, rainfall will decline so precipitously that the dam will generate only 60 per cent of its planned output.
“If you talk to indigenous groups, they all say that rainfall has changed,” Mr Nepstad said. “This is, to me, what we need to be focused on.”
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/it-s-really-close-how-the-amazon-rainforest-could-self-destruct
In the nineties simulations pointed to 2050 as the time when the amazon would change to a carbon emitter but at this rate that date will move forward quite a bit.
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Another view from 'outside' on civilisation:
We, the peoples of the Amazon, are full of fear. Soon you will be too
by Raoni Metuktire, tribe chief
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/02/amazon-destruction-earth-brazilian-kayapo-people
Quotes:
What you are doing will change the whole world and will destroy our home – and it will destroy your home too.
And that common enemy is you, the non-indigenous peoples who have invaded our lands and are now burning even those small parts of the forests where we live that you have left for us.
When your money comes into our communities it often causes big problems, driving our people apart. And we can see that it does the same thing in your cities, where what you call rich people live isolated from everyone else, afraid that other people will come to take their piu caprim away from them. Meanwhile other people starve or live in misery because they don’t have enough money to get food for themselves and their children.
making sure that everyone else has enough to eat before they feed themselves, which is our way, the way of the Kayapó, the way of indigenous people.
You have to change the way you live because you are lost, you have lost your way. Where you are going is only the way of destruction and of death.
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Somebody should arm them, so that they at least can fight back. Before these globalists kill them all.
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Somebody should arm them, so that they at least can fight back. Before these globalists kill them all.
Because an "Armed community is a Safe community"?
Terry
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A beautiful comment in the Guardian on the above article.
The Meaning Of Life:
by pinkmouse
https://discussion.theguardian.com/comment-permalink/132590167
Something the environmental crisis has revealed is the depth of nihilism in capitalist society. People genuinely see no meaning in their lives, no humanity in other people’s eyes. Life for them is about entertaining oneself until the moment of death. The entirety of existence is about eating burgers, going on holiday and getting Instagram likes.
I think those of us who wish to prevent ecocide and not see indigenous people enslaved by capitalism need to call this nihilism out for what it is. People leading meaningless lives don’t want to be told that their lives are meaningless and are at root often deeply uncomfortable about how vaid and shallow their existence is. Greta Thunberg tweeted yesterday:
Before I started school striking I had no energy, no friends and I didn’t speak to anyone. I just sat alone at home, with an eating disorder.
All of that is gone now, since I have found a meaning, in a world that sometimes seems shallow and meaningless to so many people
For the indigenous people of the Amazon like the Kayapo the meaning and sanctity of the world around them is beyond question. It is us wallowing in dead leaves.
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Just because life has no meaning does not mean one can't make one up for oneself and enjoy the entertainment!! :-*
Extinction is the way this thing works we mustn't forget. At least what appears to be extinction is appears to be happening i.e. death in general apart from entropy. Given a long enough time line nothing will remember noone or no thing!!
However it is always nice to help where one can!!!
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"There's no doubt about it" -- Researchers suggest increased fire activity, and cost, due to climate change in Alaska
https://www.ktuu.com/content/news/Theres-no-doubt-about-it-Researchers-suggest-increased-fire-activity-and-cost-due-to-climate-change-in-Alaska-559099721.html
Wildfires have ravaged Southcentral and Southwestern Alaska in the 2019 fire season. As of Aug. 30, total acreage burned in Alaska accounted for 64 percent of all acreage burned in the U.S. The cost of fighting fires in Southcentral and Southwest Alaska is just over $51 million, and growing.
Researchers have made conservative estimates of the costs of wildfire response in Alaska's changing climate, ranging from $1.2 - $2.1 billion by 2100.
As fires ravage the Amazon, indigenous tribes pray for protection
http://news.trust.org/item/20190902022725-lsdgm/
In the village of Feijo, in the West of Brazil, approaching the border with Peru, indigenous people from the tribe of Shanenawa on Sunday performed a ritual to try to find peace between humans and nature. With faces painted, dozens danced in circles as they prayed to put an end to the fires.
Fire hazard: Children struggle to breathe as smoke chokes Amazon city
http://news.trust.org/item/20190902192659-y8bp5/
The smoke permeating the city, the capital of Brazil's northwestern state of Rondonia, is leading concerned parents to wait for hours in line at local hospitals to get help for their children who are struggling to breathe.
The Thomson Reuters Foundation visited four health centres in the city, one of the hardest hit by smoke from the burning rainforest. In all, there were reports of children, some of them infants, seeking medical care due to smoke inhalation.
Hidden Danger in Water Confronts California Wildfire Survivors
https://news.bloombergenvironment.com/environment-and-energy/hidden-danger-in-water-confronts-california-wildfire-survivors
California’s 2018 Camp Fire was the deadliest blaze in state history. The fast-moving inferno burned 153,000 acres in Butte County, destroyed nearly 19,000 buildings, and caused the deaths of 86 people.
From all that destruction, a mysterious threat has emerged for those who appeared to have gotten by unscathed: household water supplies with concentrations of toxic benzene—including one sample that had 923 times what the state considers safe.
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The Amazon Fires Reveal the Dysfunction of the Global Community
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2019/08/amazon-fires-reveal-dysfunction-global-community/159426/
The case for territorial incursion in the Amazon is far stronger than the justifications for most war.
When Jair Bolosonaro won Brazil’s presidential election last year, having run on a platform of deforestation, David Wallace-Wells asked, “How much damage can one person do to the planet?” Bolsonaro didn’t pour lighter fluid to ignite the flames now ravishing the Amazon, but with his policies and rhetoric, he might as well have. The destruction he inspired—and allowed to rage with his days of stubborn unwillingness to douse the flames—has placed the planet at a hinge moment in its ecological history. Unfortunately, the planet doesn’t have a clue about how it should respond.
In part, the problem is that so much of the world is now governed by leaders who share Bolsonaro’s sensibility. Even before Bolsonaro presided over the incineration of the world’s storehouse of oxygen, he led a dubious regime. His path to power began with the corrupt impeachment of Dilma Rousseff, followed by the arrest of his higher-polling electoral rival.
In part, the problem is the dismal state of international institutions, which haven’t been so tattered since World War II. In the face of global critics begging Bolsonaro to stop the destruction of the Amazon, he shouts about the threats to Brazil’s sovereignty. For that complaint to land, he would need democratic legitimacy, and this revanchist has none; yet those critics do nothing more than sputter inconsequential rage.
Like Donald Trump, he squeezes personal joy from his confrontations with foreign leaders and NGOs, posing as the manly enemy of the effete elites. In other words, he’s letting the fires burn, at least in part, to troll his enemies. He’s cutting out the world’s lungs for the sake of owning the libs.
... If a country obtains chemical or biological weapons, the rest of the world tends to react with fury—or at least it did in the not-so-distant past. ... The destruction of the Amazon is arguably far more dangerous than the weapons of mass destruction that have triggered a robust response. The consequences of the unfolding disaster—which will extinguish species and hasten a worst-case climate crisis—extend for eternity.
To lose a fifth of the Amazon to deforestation would trigger a process known as “dieback,” releasing what The Intercept calls a “doomsday bomb of stored carbon.”
If there were a functioning global community, it would be wrestling with how to more aggressively save the Amazon, and acknowledging that the battle against climate change demands not only new international cooperation but, perhaps, the weakening of traditional concepts of the nation-state. ... In the meantime, the planet chokes on old notions of sovereignty.
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Brazil’s Bolsonaro Is Endangering the World
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2019/08/brazils-amazon-policies-endanger-world/159425/
As a store of carbon, the Amazon is fundamental to the survival of every person. If destroyed or degraded, the giant rain forest is simply beyond humanity’s ability to get back. Even if people were to replant half a continent’s worth of trees, the diversity of creatures across Amazonia, once lost, will not be replenished for roughly 10 million years. And that is 33 times longer than Homo sapiens, as a species, has existed.
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G7: Trump Skips Talks On Climate Crisis and Amazon Fires
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/26/donald-trump-skips-g7-talks-on-climate-crisis-and-amazon-fires
Donald Trump did not attend Monday’s crucial discussion on climate and biodiversity at the G7 meeting of international leaders in Biarritz, missing talks on how to deal with the Amazon rainforest fires as well as new ways to cut carbon emissions.
Reporters noticed at the start of the session that the US president’s chair was empty.
Trump was later asked by reporters covering a meeting with the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, whether he had attended the climate session. He replied: “We’re having it in a little while.” He did not appear to hear when a reporter told him it had just taken place.
And that one person is Obama. You have to understand that the USD is the world reserve currency. For most international trade countries need USD. And Obama printed 10 trillion USD. That money made the rest of the world grow. And when they grow, they need more USD. And that makes the USD stronger and stronger. A couple years ago you had a little more than 1,5 brasilian real for 1 usd. Today you have 4 brasilian real for 1 usd. That makes brasilian soybeans 70% cheaper than US soybeans compared to a couple years ago. If they asked 1,5 real for 1 kilo soybeans a couple years ago, they now almost get 3 kilo soybeans for that same 1 usd. And US farmers can not drop their price with 70 %, for them 1 USD stays 1 USD. And that creates plenty demand for brasilian soybeans. And i know what Bolsanero has been telling before the elections, but maybe he counted on the people to vote for him because they are tired of all that political correctness. I'am not sure if he realised it was going to have such an impact. ofcourse, it's his job to protect the forest. But demands comes from global growth, and that global growth is triggered by Obama's money printing spree. And because he did'nt do what he had to do, the money printing continues. Consumption on basis of printed money, soon we can say goodbuy to the entire Amazon forest i think. And in a low yield world, 70 % is a big margin. And did you ever asked yourself the question if there are some brasilian soybeans involved in the products you buy. I think many people don't do. So they will eat the Amazon without knowing. And Trump, he tries to sell American soybeans to keep US farmers alive. Maybe he will fail, but it will cost us the Amazon forest.
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Murietta, California
Kitty Alvarado (@HeyKitty) 9/5/19, 6:48 PM
#TenajaFire burning behind homes pushed firefighters back it was intense #Murrieta
https://twitter.com/heykitty/status/1169744086925897728
Frightening 30-sec video, and she shouldn’t be there.
CAL FIRE Riverside (@CALFIRERRU) 9/5/19, 9:33 AM
#TenajaFIRE Morning Update 09/05/2019 6:20 a.m.: The fire is 1,400 acres and is now 7% contained. Resources remain on scene as they work to fully contain and control the fire. All evacuation orders remain in place.
https://twitter.com/calfirerru/status/1169604525860114432?s=21
CAL FIRE Riverside (@CALFIRERRU)9/5/19, 5:33 PM
#TenajaFIRE New Evacuation orders issued for for Montanya Place, Botanica Place, Belcara, Place, Lone Oak Way @RivCoReady
https://twitter.com/calfirerru/status/1169725208820715522
Evac orders at the link.
Tenaja Fire Maps: Evacuations, Size & Photos in Murietta, CA
https://heavy.com/news/2019/09/tenaja-fire-california-murrieta/
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A lot is on fire in this thread. However, the burnt area is trending down over time, according to data from NASA earth observatory. "Globally, the total acreage burned by fires declined 24 percent between 1998 and 2015, according to a new paper published in Science. "
First graph needs a click to display.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/90493/researchers-detect-a-global-drop-in-fires
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A lot is on fire in this thread. However, the burnt area is trending down over time, according to data from NASA earth observatory. "Globally, the total acreage burned by fires declined 24 percent between 1998 and 2015, according to a new paper published in Science. "
First graph needs a click to display.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/90493/researchers-detect-a-global-drop-in-fires
Less to burn?
And even if it has reduced, it is still destroying more than is being grown back.
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...even if it has reduced, it is still destroying more than is being grown back.
That statement is seemingly not correct.
At least if we look at forestation/deforestation, the trend during the same period as the data on wildfires, is that "global tree cover is actually increasing." according to research reported in Nature.
Mainly, it is human activities that's behind this increase in forestation: "We show that—contrary to the prevailing view that forest area has declined globally5—tree cover has increased by 2.24 million km2 (+7.1% relative to the 1982 level). This overall net gain is the result of a net loss in the tropics being outweighed by a net gain in the extratropics. Global bare ground cover has decreased by 1.16 million km2 (−3.1%), most notably in agricultural regions in Asia. Of all land changes, 60% are associated with direct human activities and 40% with indirect drivers such as climate change."
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0411-9
https://phys.org/news/2018-08-global-forest-loss-years-offset.html
Graph byline: "a, Mean annual estimates. b, Long-term change estimates. Both mean and change estimates are expressed as per cent of pixel area at 0.05° × 0.05° spatial resolution. Pixels showing a statistically significant trend (n = 35, two-sided Mann–Kendall test, P < 0.05) in either TC, SV or BG are depicted on the change map. Circled numbers in the colour legend denote dominant change directions: 1, TC gain with SV loss; 2, BG gain with SV loss; 3, TC gain with BG loss; 4, BG gain with TC loss; 5, SV gain with BG loss; and 6, SV gain with TC loss. Credit: Nature (2018). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0411-9"
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The UN disagrees with your info.
http://www.fao.org/state-of-forests/en/
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This one is more appropriate given the longer time frame being used.
https://ourworldindata.org/forests
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The UN disagrees with your info.
http://www.fao.org/state-of-forests/en/
The UN is not based on science or data. Satellite measurements firmly support the data posted by Hefaistos (and my constant scouring of data, anecdotally, also supports this notion).
Furthermore the linked articles only discuss DEFORESTATION which is meaningless when you do not include REFORESTATION as well. Saying 1M KM^2 of forests are disappearing every year when 1.5M KM^2 of forests are also appearing every year, yet the bigger number is being left out, is a gross omission.
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Are the forests that are regrown the same as the forests that disappear? Monoculture vs biodiversity, for instance. Or how much is contiguous and how much isn't. Can a 500-year old tree be compared to a sapling? Etc.
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A Livestock Farmer’s Response to the Amazon Fires
https://civileats.com/2019/09/04/a-livestock-farmers-response-to-the-amazon-fires/
As for the assertion that we should all “eat less meat,” I believe we already do that when we choose humanely raised meat—because it’s more expensive and challenging to find.
For now, I believe the best way for American meat eaters to respond to the Amazon fires is to do our homework on meat labeling. And to learn the name of every livestock farmer within 50 miles, so we can buy meat we trust, regardless of the labels.
Amazon fires are 'true apocalypse', says Brazilian archbishop
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/05/amazon-fires-are-true-apocalypse-says-brazilian-archbishop
The archbishop’s words also highlight a widening division between the Catholic church and the Pentecostal movement. Pope Francis has championed a more harmonious relationship with the natural world for the sake of future generations, in contrast to the fast-growing new-world Pentecostalists who form the support base for the ramped-up resource exploitation advocated by Bolsonaro and Donald Trump.
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Are the forests that are regrown the same as the forests that disappear? Monoculture vs biodiversity, for instance. Or how much is contiguous and how much isn't. Can a 500-year old tree be compared to a sapling? Etc.
Yes, there are tons of problems with quantification due to vague criteria for what counts as "forest." So yes, a teak plantation (non-native) in Costa Rica planted on a pasture to be harvested every ~18 years is considered "reforestation."
It is clear that the main problem now is in the tropics, though the logging of old growth, pushing farther and farther into areas that were previously never logged in the "global north" is damaging even though it is not deforestation.
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The Best Way to Fight Fires in the Amazon
https://newrepublic.com/article/154926/best-way-fight-fires-amazon
No matter how great the international pressure, in the end, the Amazon’s most powerful ally will be the Brazilian people. In the last five years alone, popular rage has contributed to the impeachment of a president, the imprisonment of another, and the emergence of the current one. Finding ways to work with, rather than against, public opinion is vital. Over the last week, in cities all over Brazil, thousands have marched to demand government action on the fires. By continuing to ignore the Amazon’s plight, Bolsonaro risks alienating his base at home and the country’s trading relations abroad. Pretty soon, this Brazilian administration will be forced to admit that there’s nothing to be gained from deforestation.
HOW FIRES IN THE AMAZON COULD HURT MIGRATORY BIRDS
https://www.alleghenyfront.org/how-fires-in-the-amazon-could-hurt-migratory-birds/
In North America, a lot of areas are adapted to this cycle of fire, and then regrowth. There are species that require pristine forest, but there are also species that require a habitat that is growing back up. Many of those species have had to the most precipitous declines, because if we aren’t managing the landscape for those habitats, they may not happen on their own, especially if we’re suppressing fire.
It’s the accumulation of all these threats that’s an issue, and it isn’t just habitat loss. There are other threats, as well, but habitat loss is certainly the greatest threat that birds face.
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Forests are no plantations.
Data sets are only of use when considering the type of forest.
Plantations are nowhere near the same quality as real, old growth forests.
In some cases data can be ignored in terms of usefulness. Intuition or just plane old fashioned observation is enough to know that old growth forests are basically gone.
Europe used to be filled with them, where are they now? The Black Forest is nowhere near what it was a few hundred years ago.
The Amazon is quickly becoming a shade of itself over the last century.
Australia basically has no forest left. I drove 30 hours across Southern Australia in January and spent 26 hours of that time driving across farmland that used to be forests.... and I deliberately went out of my way to visit the forest regions and reserves.
The US is basically a huge farm at the expense of nature.
Russia still has vast forests but they are also burning and being destroyed by newly arrived insects that are eating the trees out of existence.
SE Asia is taking so much old growth forest that the wildlife has nowhere to hide anymore.
Old growth forest is what matters.
It takes centuries to do that, maybe even longer. If there was any data that compared forests today to that of 300 years ago, then the comparison would be stark.
That is what I am talking about.... not a mere comparison between 30 or 40 years.
Nature, forests, are on their knees.
Mono culture forests are not forests, not the kind that makes a difference anyway. They are for our own needs, and I would put money on it that they burn far more often than old growth forest.
I havent looked for the research, which for this forum is a bad thing, but sometimes it is obvious beyond belief that forest are disappearing, and are not being replaced as they once were.
It is like looking at the videos of arctic ice disappearing ans saying nothing is wrong in the arctic. You dont need copious amounts of data to see the obvious in the arctic... and you dont really need it to see old growth forests are disappearing just as fast.
If you want time hunt down supporting research, I will find it when I have time over the coming week, but I would be seriously surprised if anyone here would disagree with the idea the old growth forests are dying rapidly and I doubt anyone would disagree with the concept that new growth forest and plantations are equal to old growth forests.
But if research is needed to state the obvious, I will look for it if needs be.
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But if research is needed to state the obvious, I will look for it if needs be.
I would say research is always needed to state the obvious, because in science sometimes it turns out that the obvious just ain't so.
Not that I am disagreeing with you on your point...in fact I suspect you are right.
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I agree with Tom. I suspect you are right, but I can't look that way. Research would be welcomed.
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I am sorry if I don’t go deep enough or I have wandered somewhat. I am not a researcher and I don’t have a degree.
What I found (research listed below)
The first three articles support the idea that primary forests have indeed been reduced in area. Although complex, the global area is reducing for old growth forests.
Reforested land or plantations do make up for it somewhat but ultimately the amount of land that is forested has decline over the last 300 odd years. Not a massive surprise.
It does appear that the temperate regions (Russia) remains about the same although it is stressed. Tropical regions are not doing as well (https://www.sciencealert.com/worlds-tropical-forests-declining)
I then saw something about soil and carbon, so I looked into that to see if there was a difference between how much carbon was held in old growth forests compared to plantation forests. From what I can determine at this quick glance, is old growth forests store a lot of carbon and the soil goes deeper. Reforested or plantations also store a lot of carbon in the soil but the depth of the soil is less and the root systems are not as deep as old growth forests. BUT, plantation forest are a positive influence in taking carbon out of the air and into the soil and is one way to improve soil quality over time. (my thinking is it would be better to simply not destroy old growth forest in the first place)
Burning old growth forests does release more carbon via burning and then soil degradation after the fact, something that is happening in Central Africa, SE Asia and the Amazon. Australia as well, but I don’t think that is deliberate, that is just climate changing in a way that allows more and bigger fires to occur naturally.
This is getting way off track, if I dig any deeper I will find myself down a bottomless pit of reading.
In short, old growth forests are reducing over the last 300 years. Reforestation is sort of keeping up but is losing the battle, and the quality of forest (diversity of life, soil quality etc) is reduced.
I am so sorry for dragging the wildfire thread off topic. The only thing I got from this is that old forest destruction via burning is far worse than other types of forests mostly because of the degradation of soil and reduced diversity of life.
Article One
Abstract
Here, we provide the first global gridded estimates of the underlying land conversions (land‐use transitions), wood harvesting, and resulting secondary lands annually, for the period 1700–2000. Using data‐based historical cases, our results suggest that 42–68% of the land surface was impacted by land‐use activities (crop, pasture, wood harvest) during this period, some multiple times. Secondary land area increased 10–44 × 106 km2; about half of this was forested. Wood harvest and shifting cultivation generated 70–90% of the secondary land by 2000
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01150.x
Article 2
Abstract
The results of a new approach to the specification of the relationship between deforestation and population are presented. They suggest that approximately half of the deforestation that has occurred over the long sweep of human history can be explained statistically in terms of population growth. It is cautioned, however, that serious conceptual and methodological problems confront the analysis of the relationship.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(19981030)12:13/14%3C1983::AID-HYP713%3E3.0.CO;2-M
Article three
Forests in Flux
Forests worldwide are in a state of flux, with accelerating losses in some regions and gains in others. Hansen et al. (p. 850) examined global Landsat data at a 30-meter spatial resolution to characterize forest extent, loss, and gain from 2000 to 2012. Globally, 2.3 million square kilometers of forest were lost during the 12-year study period and 0.8 million square kilometers of new forest were gained. The tropics exhibited both the greatest losses and the greatest gains (through regrowth and plantation), with losses outstripping gains.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/342/6160/850
Soil
Article 1
Abstract
Old-growth forests remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere1,2 at rates that vary with climate and nitrogen deposition3. The sequestered carbon dioxide is stored in live woody tissues and slowly decomposing organic matter in litter and soil4. Old-growth forests therefore serve as a global carbon dioxide sink, but they are not protected by international treaties, because it is generally thought that ageing forests cease to accumulate carbon5,6. Here we report a search of literature and databases for forest carbon-flux estimates. We find that in forests between 15 and 800 years of age, net ecosystem productivity (the net carbon balance of the forest including soils) is usually positive. Our results demonstrate that old-growth forests can continue to accumulate carbon, contrary to the long-standing view that they are carbon neutral. Over 30 per cent of the global forest area is unmanaged primary forest, and this area contains the remaining old-growth forests7. Half of the primary forests (6 × 108 hectares) are located in the boreal and temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere. On the basis of our analysis, these forests alone sequester about 1.3 ± 0.5 gigatonnes of carbon per year. Thus, our findings suggest that 15 per cent of the global forest area, which is currently not considered when offsetting increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, provides at least 10 per cent of the global net ecosystem productivity8. Old-growth forests accumulate carbon for centuries and contain large quantities of it. We expect, however, that much of this carbon, even soil carbon9, will move back to the atmosphere if these forests are disturbed.
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature07276
Soil article 2
Results
Mean annual temperature (MAT) was the most important predictor of soil C. Forest age explained little to no variability in soil C, in contrast with above‐ground studies. Data on long‐term trends in soil C are limited, as median time since forest growth was 15 years. Soil C stocks were similar between tropical secondary forests, tree plantations and reference forests. Differences between plantation and successional forests only appeared below 10 cm on sites with MAT < 21.3 °C. Former pastures and cultivated sites differed from each other only to depths of 30 or 100 cm. Climatic variables appeared multiple times across all layers of the regression trees, consistent with strong interactions between MAT and precipitation on soil C stocks.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2012.00788.x
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Thanks for the effort Rodius :). Interesting articles. I don't think it is off-topic.
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Thanks for the effort Rodius :). Interesting articles. I don't think it is off-topic.
Seconded. And I have posted a cross-link in the Forests thread.
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Australia
NSW RFS on Twitter: "This morning there are more than 65 bush & grass fires across #NSW. 3 fires remain at Emergency Warning. More than 500 firefighters continue to protect homes & work to control fires in difficult conditions. #nswrfs #nswfires”
https://twitter.com/NSWRFS/status/1170093147872874496
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Australia.
I am not entirely sure the fires even stopped in Northern Australia this year.
The entire Central East of the country is in the worst drought since records began.... I personally think it isnt a drought but desertification.
Rivers are struggling to survive... between the drought and agriculture sucking the rivers dry up North they are killing the river system.
On top of that, with Antarctica doing its funky stratospheric thing, that is going to bring in even more heat and reduced rain for at least the next three months.
In Victoria, the winter has been normal, so enough rain to grow grass and turn it green again for the first time in ten years.... while this is nice, in Oz that means more fuel for the fires this year.
This year is already bad but it is going to become much worse. The entire East Coast is primed and ready for super massive fires. I dont think cities are even immune to them this year.
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Disaster strikes in Bolivia as fires lay waste to unique forests
https://news.mongabay.com/2019/09/disaster-strikes-in-bolivia-as-fires-devastate-unique-forests/
Fires are raging in Bolivia, hitting particularly hard the Chiquitano dry forests of the country’s southern Santa Cruz region.
Officials say the fires are largely the result of intentional burning to convert forest to farmland. Sources say this practice has recently intensified after Bolivian president Evo Morales signed a decree in July expanding land demarcated for livestock production and the agribusiness sector to include Permanent Forest Production Lands in the regions of Beni and Santa Cruz.
Satellite data indicate 2019 may be a banner year for forest loss, with tree cover loss alerts spiking in late August to levels more than double the average of previous years. Most of these alerts are occurring in areas with high fire activity, with data from NASA showing August fire activity in Santa Cruz was around three times higher than in years past.
Human communities are suffering due to the fires, with reports of smoke-caused illnesses and drinking water shortages. Meanwhile, biologists are worried about the plants and animals of the Chiquitano dry forests, many of which are unique, isolated and found nowhere else in the world.
Australia Bushfires Arrive Early, Destroying Historic Lodge in ‘Omen’ of Future
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/09/world/australia/bushfires-wildfires-climate-change.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fclimate&action=click&contentCollection=climate®ion=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront
Experts and some state officials, agreeing with that dire assessment, have been quick to identify climate change as a major cause — a controversial argument for some people here in a country that is heavily reliant on the coal industry, with a conservative government that has resisted making climate policy a priority.
But the recent flames spreading not just through the country’s dry middle but also into its rainforests are one of many data points that make the patterns and problems undeniable.
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Australia Bushfires Arrive Early, Destroying Historic Lodge in ‘Omen’ of Future
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/09/world/australia/bushfires-wildfires-climate-change.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fclimate&action=click&contentCollection=climate®ion=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront
But over the weekend, a bushfire destroyed the beloved getaway, one of Australia’s oldest nature resorts — drawing tears from neighbors and alarm from officials who warned that climate change and drought threatened to bring Australia its worst fire season on record.
“This is an omen, if you will,” said Andrew Sturgess, who is in charge of fire prediction for the state of Queensland, where the lodge had stood in Lamington National Park.
This is a worst-possible wildfire scenario for Southern California
https://www.vox.com/2019/9/10/20804560/climate-change-california-wildfire-2019
The wildfire that smashes all of California’s previous notions of “the worst that could happen” begins with an illegal firecracker set off by campers in the the San Bernardino National Forest. Patches of this forest, near the spa city of Palm Springs, have burned many times before. But this fire becomes monstrously big in a matter of hours because a severe, multi-year drought and an extra-long hot summer have left an unprecedented number of trees and shrubs bone dry, defenseless to flame.
As tall Ponderosa and sugar pine trees in the federally protected area are engulfed, embers from their crowns fly forward, propelled by wind, igniting the next patch of forest. US Forest Service firefighters try to contain it, but the fire is too big and moving much too fast with fierce winds helping it along. In just two days, the fire is 10 miles wide.
The fire can spread in all directions inside the national forest with so much available fuel, and at first there isn’t much threat to human life. But as it grows bigger, it will race eastward toward the edge of Palm Springs, population 48,000, and northeast toward San Bernardino, population 220,000.
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PG&E Agrees To Pay $11 Billion Insurance Settlement Over California Wildfires
https://www.npr.org/2019/09/13/760479525/pg-e-to-pay-11-billion-insurance-settlement-over-wildfires-in-paradise-and-elsew
Utility giant PG&E has agreed to a second large settlement over devastating Northern California wildfires, saying it will pay $11 billion to resolve most insurance claims from the wine country fires in 2017 and massive Camp Fire in 2018.
"These claims are based on payments made by insurance companies to individuals and businesses with insurance coverage for wildfire damages" in those catastrophic blazes, PG&E said in announcing the deal.
The utility says the tentative deal with a group of insurers covers about 85% of claims from those fires. While the $11 billion sum is large, it's far smaller than the roughly $20 billion that the insurance companies wanted, after paying out billions to California wildfire victims.
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Brazilian Amazon fires scientifically linked to 2019 deforestation: report
https://news.mongabay.com/2019/09/brazilian-amazon-fires-scientifically-linked-to-2019-deforestation-report/
A scientific report released today by the Monitoring of the Andean Amazon Project (MAAP) reveals critical overlap between deforestation and fire alerts. Mongabay had exclusive access to the report ahead of release.
At least 52,500 hectares (130,000 acres) of the Brazilian Amazon — the equivalent to 72,000 soccer fields — were cleared through 2019 and then burned in August. The findings offer a base map overlapping 2019 deforestation and fire hotspots, and include 16 high-resolution time lapse videos unveiling newly cleared agricultural lands linked to fire occurrences.
MAAP’s findings show that the dramatic photos that garnered worldwide attention of smoky fires sweeping the Brazilian Amazon in August do not correspond with burning rainforest, but instead coincide with areas intentionally deforested this year, with the cleared land then set ablaze to finish the agricultural conversion process.
Although the report didn’t detect major forest fires in Brazil to date, the risk still exists, as the dry season deepens, given that many fire occurrences were detected on agriculture-forest boundaries. The study doesn’t say how much of the 52,500 hectares cleared in the first 8 months of 2019 were illegally deforested.
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Death Toll Rises as Millions in Indonesia Suffer from Raging Forest Fires https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/death-toll-rises-as-millions-in-indonesia-suffer-from-raging-11902862
... According to the Indonesian National Disaster Mitigation Agency, more than 285,000ha of land have been burned since the dry season began in June.
On Friday morning, a total of 3,673 hotspots were detected across three provinces in Sumatra and three provinces in the Indonesian part of Borneo, compared to 1,092 hotspots detected in mid-August.
The forest fires have caused several Indonesian cities to be blanketed by thick smog. Neighbouring Singapore and Malaysia were not spared either.
(https://images.spot.im/image/upload/q_70,fl_lossy,dpr_3,c_limit/v200/07473a858d0279194013474ca5d7afea)
Fires & Haze over Indonesia
On Friday afternoon, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore topped the list of major cities with the worst air quality according to Swiss-based group AirVisual.
In Singapore, the AQI ranged between 156 and 160. AQI measures the concentration of six major pollutants in the air.
Meanwhile in Indonesia, an AQI of 580 was recorded on Friday afternoon, a level which is considered “hazardous”, meaning that the air is deemed toxic and poses serious risk to the heart and lungs.
The haze was so thick in the city that visibility dropped to as low as 300 metres.
... This year’s forest fires are the worst since the 2015 haze crisis, when smog from forest fires in Indonesia reached as far as Hanoi and Phnom Penh.
Scientists had estimated that the 2015 fires released CO2 emissions comparable to Japan or India's annual fossil fuel emissions, exposed more than 69 million people to unhealthy air, and cost more than US$16 billion in damages.
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Australia
After fires tore through parts of Queensland in an earlier-than-expected bushfire season, emergency services are warning of the growing threat to suburban backyards as the weather gets hotter and drier.
Queensland's early bushfire season prompts call for emergency plans in suburbia
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-14/queensland-bushfire-season-early-emergency-plan/11502320
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Amazon fish species at risk if fires destroy river habitat
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/09/amazon-fires-brazil-threaten-fish/
The fires burning through the Brazilian Amazon are a threat to the fish that rely on forest flooding to survive, raising fears the fish will be lost.
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Lax law enforcement causing Indonesia's forest fires: Greenpeace
https://www.dw.com/en/lax-law-enforcement-causing-indonesias-forest-fires-greenpeace/a-50460060
According to data released by the Indonesian National Board of Disaster Management (BNPB), 3287.4 square kilometers of forest and land was burned across Indonesia between January and August 2019. Smoke from the fires also gave rise to toxic smog in Malaysia and Singapore.
DW spoke to Greenpeace Indonesia's Forest Campaigner Rusmadya Maharuddin about the reasons behind the calamity.
The Lawless Frontier at the
Heart of the Burning Amazon
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/amazon-burning-bolsonaro-novo-progresso-deforestation-885114/
Inside the battle for the forest's future — and ours — as Brazilian ranchers and farmers vow to protect their way of life at any cost
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Defending Your Home from a Raging Wildfire
https://www.outsideonline.com/2402319/protect-home-wildfire
The 2018 Carr Fire was one of the worst wildfires in California history. By the time it was contained, it had burned 359 square miles, destroyed close to 2,000 buildings, and killed seven people. It also spawned a massive fire tornado—only the second ever recorded. Meteorologists examining the damage afterward estimated that the vortex had generated winds of up to 165 miles per hour. When a blaze like that is coming your way, the only sane thing to do is run for your life. But Gary and Lori Lyon did the opposite, staying to defend their home. Outside contributor Stephanie Joyce has the story on why, in an era of increasingly intense fires, someone would dare to stand and fight an inferno.
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Hundreds Of Cameras Will Be Watching For Wildfires In California, Nevada This Fire Season
As fall approaches, bringing strong winds to California’s dry landscape, a coalition of universities, public safety agencies and utility companies is building a network of cameras in high fire risk areas like the foothills, coastal mountains and the rangelands of Nevada.
...
“In the old days, a few years ago, it was basically a guess,” Kent said. “You might have a lookout tower with somebody who’s experienced with binoculars. But that was always a conversation, they could never see it.”
But now, command staff can see a developing fire for themselves and even watch a timelapse video of its behavior, so they get a better sense of what resources they need to send, whether it’s ground crews, fire engines or air tankers. ...
https://www.ijpr.org/post/hundreds-cameras-will-be-watching-wildfires-california-nevada-fire-season
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1967 Black Tuesday fires that destroyed Hobart 'will happen again', experts warn
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-23/experts-warn-fire-threat-to-hobart-is-imminent/11531494
"Every firefighter and fire expert I speak to says it's not a question of if we get a big fire, it's when," Cr Reynolds, Hobart's Lord Mayor, says.
"And a lot of them are increasingly nervous that when is going to be very soon."
Her council will spend $1.9 million on bushfire preparations this year. The money will go to fire-trail management, hazard reduction burns and firebreaks.
"It's absolutely the number-one risk to Hobart. We've always been a dry city. But with climate change it's becoming a tinderbox city," she says.
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Western U.S.: Firefighters battle 6,000-acre blaze in Colorado
Hundreds of firefighters in Colorado are battling a 6,000-acre wildfire that threatens communities near Salida, a city located 142 miles south of Denver.
Low humidity and wind gusts are causing problems for the 730 people working on the Decker Fire, according to the Rocky Mountain Incident Management Team's Facebook page.
Lightning started the fire September 8, the Incident Management Team said. A combination of low humidity and high winds have created significant potential for spotting, the team said. This threat lead to a pre-evacuation notice for Howard, Pine Ridge, Wellsville and Swissvale communities Friday afternoon.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/10/05/us/decker-fire-colorado/index.html
On ‘Pivotal Day’ For Decker Fire, Several Colorado Towns Await Word On Evacuation
Fremont County Sheriff Allen Cooper urged people to be prepared to evacuate in case the fire takes a turn for the worse. He said officials want to be sure residents have plenty of time to move their livestock.
“If we get into an evacuation plan, that is not the time to move your stock,” he said. “The time to move your stock is now.”
https://www.cpr.org/2019/10/05/decker-fire-colorado-evacuations/
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Extreme Fire Danger: PG&E Issues Unprecedented Power Shut-Off Watch for Much of Northern California
https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/amp/PG-E-issues-unprecedented-power-shutoff-watch-for-14498454.php
Pacific Gas & Electric Co. issued an unprecedented notification to potentially shut off power across much of Northern California — as many as 30 California counties including almost all of the Bay Area — on Wednesday and Thursday to prevent power lines and equipment from sparking wildfires.
... Winds are expected to be 20 mph to 30 mph in the mountains with gusts of at least 55 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph are expected in valleys.
(https://lostcoastoutpost.com/loco-media/cache/01/18/011844aab21edb719ee8ddfde7fc1b4f.jpg)
... This is basically an earthquake kit situation without the earthquake, and will potentially affect millions of Californians between Wednesday morning and Thursday afternoon.
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PG&E Power Shut-Off: 257,000 Bay Area Customers on Alert; Outages Could Start at Midnight
https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/amp/PG-E-power-shut-off-257-000-Bay-Area-residents-14500945.php
Officials in Oakland and Contra Costa County said Tuesday that the shut-offs could begin as early as midnight Wednesday, four hours earlier than Pacific Gas & Electric Co.’s initial estimate of 4 a.m. The outages could affect a total of 1.8 million people, Oakland officials said.
“We encourage you to find alternative energy sources for light, charging devices and other necessities,” official said. “Plan ahead with food and water, and make sure your grab-and-go emergency kits are ready.”
National Weather Service forecasters have issued red flag warnings for the East Bay and North Bay hills, as well as the Santa Cruz Mountains.
(https://s.hdnux.com/photos/01/06/13/11/18395775/15/rawImage.jpg)
Update: PG&E has announced it will shut off power to more than 800,000 customers in an effort to prevent new wildfires, in the largest preventive outage in state history.
Pacific Gas & Electric utility said it will start turning off power to 34 counties in northern and central California after midnight Wednesday.
It may take several days to fully restore power, Michael Lewis, senior vice-president of PG&E’s electric operations, said in a statement.
Separately, the Southern California Edison utility website said more than 106,000 of its customers in parts of eight counties could face power cuts.
The affected regions include an area of wine country north of San Francisco where several fires two years ago killed 22 people and destroyed thousands of homes.
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PG&E shut-offs: Could you lose power? Map of potential outages in the Bay Area, California
https://projects.sfchronicle.com/trackers/power-outages/
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Dave Toussaint (@engineco16) ;)10/8/19, 7:17 PM
The fire has hit Sweetwater Ridge Rd at the top of the ridge. So it's larger than the 3400+ acres I'm showing here.
#BriceburgFire @CALFIREMMU Several have asked where the Ferguson Fire is in relationship to this fire. The green line is the Ferguson.
https://twitter.com/engineco16/status/1181710276711706624
Dave Toussaint (@engineco16) 10/8/19, 5:49 PM
#BriceburgFire @CALFIREMMU The fire is capping out again and growing larger and larger by the minute. It's still moving in an ESE direction, but this evening the winds will shift to a more north wind.
https://twitter.com/engineco16/status/1181688180409372673
The red pin on the map below is Briceburg.
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Millions without power as PG&E shuts down grid amid critical fire danger - Los Angeles Times
Based on the latest forecasts, the utility says it expects high winds will last through midday Thursday with peak winds reaching up to 70 mph from early Wednesday through Thursday morning. Once the fire weather subsides, PG&E will inspect and test the grid both with on-site crews and electronically before restoring service, a company official said.
It took the utility less than a day to restore power to customers during a three-county shutoff last weekend and another in September, the company said in a statement.
Assembly Republican leader Marie Waldron (R-Escondido) said PG&E’s announcement is a sign of how far the state has fallen behind in efforts to prevent catastrophic wildfires.
“This is the frustrating result of decades of forest mismanagement and aging energy infrastructure,” Waldron said. “These shutoffs highlight the need to invest in vegetation management, update our energy grid and help Californians harden their homes against wildfires.” ...
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-10-09/pg-e-cuts-power-across-northern-california-as-winds-bring-critical-fire-danger
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#BREAKING: The #SaddleridgeFire has completely consumed the 5 freeway in the #newhall pass... MAJOR FIRE EMERGENCY
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EGk-IJPUcAErZWt.jpg:large
Attached is the infrared satellite view of SoCal as of 8:16Z. Just four hours ago it wasn't even visible.
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^^
Some bad ass fires in California tonight!
It'll be a little harder to put the blame on PG&E this year.
Terry
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Fires in California push south forcing evacuations around Los Angeles amid rolling power outages today
Despite an unprecedented effort to prevent wildfires, at least three of them erupted in Southern California on Thursday fueled by strong winds and dry conditions. The fires quickly claimed more ground, destroying homes and by Friday morning at least 100,000 people had been forced to flee under mandatory evacuation orders around Los Angeles.
L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti confirmed evacuation orders after the high winds pushed the Saddleridge fire across two freeways and into communities. Most of the residents ordered out were in neighborhoods about 20 miles northwest of central Los Angeles.
The Los Angeles Fire Department said early Friday that the blaze had grown to 2,000 acres, and it was being battled by more than 400 firefighters, but it was still moving.
...
“We have found multiple cases of damage or hazards" caused by heavy winds, including fallen branches that came in contact with overhead lines, said Sumeet Singh, a vice president for the utility. "If they were energized, they could've ignited."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/california-fires-power-outages-today-wildfires-santa-ana-high-winds-evacuations-2019-10-11/
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BBC Video: Lebanon Battles Worst Wildfires in Decades
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-middle-east-50063429/lebanon-battles-worst-wildfires-in-decades
Firefighters and specialist aircraft in Lebanon are working to tackle a series of wildfires which have broken out during a period of high temperatures and strong winds.
The blazes started in Lebanon's western mountains, but have spread to other areas. The initial cause is not known.
Officials said on Tuesday that more than 100 fires had broken out in the space of 24 hours.
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Oct 23: Blackouts set for Northern California. PG&E announces major shutoff starting this afternoon
After days of warnings, PG&E Corp. announced it will launch a major safety blackout this afternoon in 17 north and central California counties, the second such deliberate power outage in two weeks.
The troubled utility, citing forecasts of dangerous winds that could cause wildfires, said it will cut power to approximately 179,000 households and businesses in the Sierra foothills and Bay Area. Pacific Gas and Electric Co. has been warning about the power shutoff since Monday.
The National Weather Service issued a red flag warning for much of Northern and Central California.
The size of the “public safety power shutoff” has been dialed back slightly. It was originally targeting 209,000 customers. ...
https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/article236563918.html
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“They shut off the power and we still had a fire.”
Kincade fire in Sonoma County scorches 10,000 acres
The wind-driven Kincade fire has burned an estimated 10,000 acres and has no containment, according to Cal Fire and local officials. The fire started in a mountainous area near Kincade and Burned Mountain roads.
...
The entire town of Geyersville and vineyards across the California wine country were forced to evacuate as a monster fire, pushed by wind gusts topping 70 mph, spread rapidly in a rural section of Sonoma County.
Some Geyersville residents evacuated in the darkness after Pacific Gas & Electric Company shut power off to areas in Sonoma County and the Kincade fire crossed Highway 128, moving west toward homes in the town of about 929 people. ...
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-10-23/kincade-fire-sonoma-county-prompts-evacuations
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Is Earth On Fire? Data Shows Almost Five Times as Many Wildfires Over Last Year
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-earth-wildfires-year.html
Data from the Sentinel-3 World Fire Atlas (https://s3worldfireatlas.esa.int/) shows that there were almost five times as many wildfires in August 2019 compared to August 2018, but a detailed analysis reveals precisely where these fires have been occurring—most of which were in Asia.
The Copernicus Sentinel-3 mission recorded 79,000 fires in August this year, compared to just over 16,000 fires detected during the same period last year. These figures were achieved by using data from the Sentinel-3 World Fire Atlas Prototype, which is also able to provide a breakdown of these fires per continent.
The data reveals 49 percent of fires were detected in Asia, around 28 percent were detected in South America, 16 percent in Africa, and the remaining were recorded in North America, Europe and Oceania.
(https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/hires/2019/isearthonfire.jpg)
ESA's Olivier Arino comments, "We have never seen an increase of wildfires of this kind since the ATSR World Fire Atlas was created in 1995."
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California
Kincade Fire: PG&E tower near ignition point of Sonoma County wildfire was not shut off, had broken equipment
SONOMA COUNTY, Calif. (KGO) -- The Kincade Fire erupted near some power lines and a power plant just minutes after a PG&E transmission tower experienced an outage, possibly because of a broken piece of equipment.
This is according to details uncovered in a PG&E electric incident report, filed to the California Public Utility Commission Thursday morning.
This new report is raising some questions about whether PG&E's planned power shutoffs are effective.
According to PG&E's website, this area was part of a Public Safety Power Shutoff, but the power was not cut in the area until 28 minutes after the fire started. ...
https://abc7news.com/pg-e-tower-near-kincade-fires-starting-point-wasnt-shut-off/5644820/
Kincade Fire in Sonoma County continues to rage: 21,900 acres, 5% containment
https://www.sfgate.com/california-wildfires/article/Wildfire-Kincade-Sonoma-County-Geysers-14558378.php
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Oct 25, 2019 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/
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I am extremely concerned about the upcoming period of high winds. Both 2017 and 2018 saw extensive devastating wildfires occurring during similar events. In 2017 much of Santa Rosa and Napa Valley burned, in 2018, Paradise burned to the ground, and much of Ventura County also caught fire. I would imagine we will see at least one major firestorm in Northern CA, possibly alongside one in Southern CA as well.
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It is worth noting there were no "destructive" wildfires between 2008 and 2015. In 2017 there were five, in 2018 there were three. There haven't been any yet in 2019.
The below are the 500MB composite anomaly patterns for 10/7-8/2017, and 11/7-8/2018. The last image is the EURO's 72 hour forecast. The similarity with last year's 500MB look at the time of the Paradise and Woolsey Fires is uncanny. It is also a close match to the October 2017 event.
In 2017, almost 10,000 structures burned by the end of the year. In 2018, almost 20,000 burned. If those are at all analogous to what's impending in the next 72 hours, we are about to see a very bad situation unfold in California.
(https://media.giphy.com/media/loMc1qCmYGDyF2tlhC/giphy.gif)
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California
Mary and Charles Lindsey went to sleep to the glow of the Tick fire, but they had seen wildfires before, and their two-story home in the Santa Clarita foothills seemed safe enough. All Thursday, they hadn't gotten a reverse-911 alert, or an emergency email, or a phone call. All had seemed quiet since 11 a.m., when Southern California Edison shut off their power.
It wasn't until 2:30 a.m. Friday that something — maybe the whir of helicopters or perhaps the providence of God — woke Mary up. She saw the unusual light creeping through the bedroom curtains. “That’s not right,” she thought, grabbing a flashlight.
Outside, a sheriff’s deputy cruising by noticed the flashlight in the window and flicked on his siren, then shouted into the home: “It’s a mandatory evacuation!” The deputy wondered why the occupants hadn't gotten an alert. She told him that entire section of the Stonecrest community didn't have a clue. They were all still in their homes. "Oh, my God!" the deputy replied.
What followed, by Mary Lindsey's recollection the next day at an evacuation center at the College of the Canyons in Valencia, was a pitch-black rush to safety for the Lindseys and dozens of their neighbors — just a microcosm of the unsettling new abnormal confronting residents in California's sprawling wildfire country: managing emergency evacuations without lights, electrical garage doors, internet-enabled phone lines or air conditioning.
...
As fires still raged in Northern California's wine country and close to the suburbs above the 14 Freeway in Southern California, evacuees described how getting out, and getting on, felt markedly more frightening because the state's biggest utilities had cut power as part of wide "public safety power shut-offs." There was no small irony in the fact that the discomfiting power outages had been ordered to prevent the fires in the first place.
California has built much of its emergency response system around the premise that alerts and evacuation orders will be received by residents with cellphones or landlines. But landline technology has changed, and telecommunications companies are increasingly relying on internet technology, which is subject to power outages, to serve households with voice calls. ...
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-10-26/power-outages-residents-miss-fire-evacuation-alerts
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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
BAY AREA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...Portions of northern California including most of the Sacramento
River Valley...
Extremely critical conditions are expected to develop rather quickly
Sunday morning in areas near and north of the Bay Area, as RH values
drop quickly to around 10% amidst sustained winds of 25-40 mph
(locally greater) with higher gusts across terrain-favored regions.
Surrounding the extremely critical area, critical conditions are
expected to spread into at least the central Sacramento Valley. See
the previous discussion below for more details regarding the
dangerous fire-weather conditions expected on Sunday.
...Southern California...
Elevated to locally critical conditions still appear likely to
develop Sunday night into Monday morning across the higher terrain
and foothills of southern CA. The elevated area has been expanded
based on latest high-resolution and pressure gradient guidance, with
a critical area added for areas in and near the higher terrain of
southern CA, where sustained winds in excess of 20 mph (with much
stronger gusts) and critical RH values at or below 15% are expected
to develop Sunday night or early Monday morning.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
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Daniel Swain (@Weather_West) 10/26/19, 2:15 PM
Geographic scope of anticipatory evacuations for the #KincaidFire in advance of upcoming extreme wind event is absolutely stunning. Wow. Based on this map, it seems like fire officials are worried fire could jump Hwy 101 and make a run toward the Pacific Ocean... #CAwx #CAfire
https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/1188157279847075840
- Update: official Evacuation Warning now does officially extend all the way to the Pacific Ocean--35 miles from the fire's current location. #KincaidFire [Image below.]
< I’m packing up and leaving my little home in Healdsburg soon. :'(
< I'm so sorry. Healdsburg is a lovely little town and it'd be heart-breaking to see it destroyed.
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Thousands of Homeowners in Fire Zones are Losing Their Insurance
https://abc7news.com/amp/insurance-companies-refusing-policies-in-wildfire-areas/5647865/
ORINDA, Calif. (KGO) -- It's getting harder for thousands to find fire insurance. The disastrous blazes have insurance companies dropping customers living in wildfire areas-- and many new homeowners can't buy a policy in a wildfire area.
The state Department of Insurance released some astonishing figures. Insurance companies refused to renew more than 167,000 homeowner policies last year.
That's up six percent statewide -- and up 10 percent in wildfire areas alone. Statistics show about nine thousand residents in disaster zones lost their homeowners insurance in 2018. They were living in or near one of the major fires of the past two years. Also, state officials say an estimated 88,000 homeowners living in fire-prone areas -- that is rural, wooded, hot and windy -- lost their coverage last year even if there was no actual fire near them.
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Latest: Wind Gusts Up To 93 mph Recorded in Healdsburg Hills
https://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/10227533-181/latest-winds-picking-up-in
Wind gusts as high as 93 mph were recorded in the Healdsburg hills early Sunday morning, the National Weather Service reported, an example of the intensity of the windstorm that prompted widespread evacuations from the Kincade fire.
-
^^
Has the velocity of the Santa Ana winds been increasing due to AGW? They were fierce back in the '60s & will make California living more difficult/dangerous if so.
I was once blown across 3 lanes of freeway by a sudden gust when coming out of Orange County.
Terry
-
^
I don't think so Terry.
AGW will increase the prevalence of drought, but the Santa Ana winds are caused by a pressure gradient between a High in the Great Basin and a Low along the Pacific shore. A drought would increase the fuel but not the wind speed.
-----------------
2 Million Californians Without Power And 180,000 Ordered To Evacuate Amid Wildfires
https://www.npr.org/2019/10/27/773844324/2-million-californians-without-power-and-180-000-ordered-to-evacuate-amid-wildfi
PG&E, the state's bankrupt electric utility, said it would be cutting power to 940,000 homes and businesses in 38 counties. That means an estimated 2.35 million people are without power, according to the AP.
... They are also preparing for more Santa Ana winds expected on Sunday evening and Monday morning. Critical fire conditions are possible on Wednesday and Thursday, as gusts could reach 50-70 miles per hour and humidity is low.
-
San Francisco area.
Vallejo is 55 miles south of Geyserville where the massive Kincade Fire has forced 185,000 people to flee their communities.
Interstate 80 Shuts Down, Evacuations Ordered as Fire Breaks Out in Vallejo, California
https://weather.com/news/news/2019-10-27-vallejo-glen-cove-fire-shuts-interstate-80-forces-evacuations
“Fieldstone Winery Alexander Valley Sonoma County CA #KincadeFire”
https://mobile.twitter.com/cphilpottcraig/status/1188422695379062785
Video clip at the link.
“Soda rock winery total loss. Awful. #KincadeFire”
https://mobile.twitter.com/stuartpalley/status/1188416243453136896
Photo at the link.
Edit:
“Driving on Hwy 128 [last night] near Fieldstone Winery Alexander Valley CA #KincadeFire”
https://mobile.twitter.com/cphilpottcraig/status/1188429631386308609
Video clip at the link.
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California wildfires, strong winds prompt Newsom to declare state of emergency; 200,000 ordered to evacuate (https://www.foxnews.com/us/california-wildfires-winds-gavin-newsom-state-of-emergency-evacuations)
(as reported 2 hours ago)
...
Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) shut off power to 2.3 million people across 36 counties ...
Kincade Fire, which began Wednesday night and has burned 47 square miles and has destroyed 79 structures, was only 10 percent contained Sunday morning ...
Strong winds hit Sunday as gusts reached 93 mph in the hills north of Healdsburg and topped more than 80 mph in many other areas, according to the National Weather Service.
-
***Dangerous, extremely critical fire weather will continue across southern California Wednesday***
The ongoing forecast is generally on track and more details are in the previous outlook. Very strong winds are expected across coastal ranges in southern California early in the day, with 75-85 mph wind gusts possible across Ventura, Los Angeles, and western San Bernardino counties with 75-85 mph wind gusts through 19Z Wednesday - with 60 mph wind gusts farther south toward San Diego County around that same time period. These conditions will combine with extremely low RH values (3-8%) and result in an extremely dangerous environment capable of rapidly moving fires exhibiting extreme and unpredictable behavior.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
-
Google Taps Satellites to Offer Clearer Picture of Wildfires
https://www.axios.com/google-taps-satellites-to-offer-clearer-picture-of-wildfires-b27dfd4c-2020-4074-be39-d1efa47deb3a.html
With this week's wildfires, Google is using the power of two U.S. satellites to provide a clearer and more quickly updated view of how the blazes are spreading.
Why it matters: Official information can often be hard to find and presented in less than straightforward ways, especially for those trying to quickly assess their situation in an emergency.
What's new: Google is drawing on both near-infrared and visible spectrum images to create a map of the Kincade Fire in Northern California, which can be updated every 5-20 minutes.
It's then combining the map with other official information as part of its official page on the fire.
https://www.google.com/search?q=kincade%20fire
What's next: Google hopes to expand beyond the U.S. to offer similar alerts in other countries.
"We think natural disasters are only going to get bigger as climate change takes hold," said Pete Giencke, a product manager for Google search.
-
By the Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2019/oct/30/california-unprecedented-extreme-red-flag-warning-issued-as-wildfires-spread-video
-
I think the Montana / "Triangle of Coldness" I won't shut up about is connected to the situation in SoCal (though not always). The engorged Hadley Cells press against the Rockies and the higher heights result in more topographic influence on sensible weather. In practical terms this results in the jetstream being forced from W->E across North America (on the west coast) to N->S.
The jet has shifted to N->S many times throughout history, however, it has never done so in recorded history on an extremely extended basis. The instances where this occurs for a long period result in severely cold temperatures in the Lower 48, like literally the coldest weather the States have ever seen, as the heart of the anomalies partially reside in the area of coldest ordinary temperatures.
The same phenomenon is responsible for the summertime desertification of California. When the jet shifts from W->E to N->S, precip that would normally deposit over the SW Rockies instead falls over the NW Rockies and Highest Plains. This feedback will worsen further as open water in the Arctic continues to increase on a seasonal basis.
Besides the fact that the shift in the jet deposits snow/rain over the Rockies of Montana and the plains of the Dakotas instead of California, the severe cold that accompanies the airmasses drifting down from the Arctic into Montana et al also sometimes descends on SoCal from the N / NE. This has been the case for both of the wind events of recent (previous and ongoing) as well as the events of 2017 and 2018.
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Thousands of hectares of prime koala habitat near Port Macquarie has been burnt during this week's Crestwood-Lake Cathie fire, killing as many as 350 of the marsupials and many other species.
Wildlife researchers visited some of the areas destroyed in the bushfire but only located two live koalas during a survey of about 100 hectares on Thursday.
...
While some animals such as kangaroos, wallabies and birds can typically evade the bushfires, koalas' survival strategy is typically to climb higher in the trees.
https://www.theage.com.au/environment/conservation/the-whole-place-went-up-fears-for-koala-colonies-as-nsw-fires-burn-on-20191031-p5366y.html
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“Video of the day from the #EasyFire. A horse goes back into the blaze to get his [sic] family.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/loganhallnews/status/1189598883849990144
Video clip at the link.
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Brazil wildfires: Blaze advances across Pantanal wetlands
A 50 kilometre-long (31 mile) wildfire is advancing across Brazil's Pantanal wetlands.
The governor's office in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul said the fire was "bigger than anything seen before" in the region.
At least 50,000 hectares of vegetation have already been destroyed.
The area, located in the southern part of the country, is one of the most biodiverse regions in the world and a popular tourist destination.
The fire began on 25 October and is said to be advancing rapidly due to the combination of high temperatures and high winds.
...
Over 8,000 fires have been recorded in the Pantanal until 30 October, up 462% on the same period last year.
Brazil has had a large number of forest fires this year. Official figures show more than 167,000 forest fires were recorded from January until 30 October this year.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-50257684
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Victor Venema on Twitter:
"California Wildfire Denial
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2019/11/02/california-wildfire-denial/
@TaminoClimate responds to Roy Spencer. That is an impressive fit using only temperature & precipitation. One would expect the problem to be much more complicated,but maybe it is not or these other factors did not change much.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/variabilityblog/status/1190690854148677632
Image below; model explanation at the tamino link.
-
Personally, I prefer the hot-dry-wind (HDW) index developed by the U.S. Forest Service:
https://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/pubs/ja/2018/ja_2018_goodrick_001.pdf
Updated and historical values can be found here:
https://hdwindex.org/
-
Australia:
New South Wales and Queensland
The fire season in those regions has barely started, this is only the beginning......
Quotes from the article:
“Unfortunately we are in uncharted territory this afternoon - we’ve never seen this many fires concurrently at emergency warning level,” Fitzsimmons told ABC TV.
Fitzsimmons said bush and grass fires were burning through about 370,000 hectares of NSW land – more than the entire land area burned last year.
“On top of the current weather, we’ve had stress on the plants, we’ve got a lot of what’s called curing, a lot of the grass is already brown,” Queensland Fire and Emergency Services superintendent James Haig said.
“What I’m saying is, the drought conditions, the long-term dry conditions, the lack of rainfall, have exacerbated the bushfire conditions.”
Wind gusts of up to 80km/h are expected Friday afternoon as a low-pressure trough sweeps across the southeast.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/08/dozens-of-bushfires-burn-out-of-control-in-nsw-and-queensland-as-temperatures-soar
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West East Australia via Himawari-8.
24 frames, 20-minute increments.
-
Oops.
If this is Western Australia, it's the first time I have seen wildfires in the Indian ocean?
-
Damn! Thanks, Ruffed! ;)
-
There are plenty of fires on the West Coast, but the winds blow the smoke inland, not out to sea (most of the time.)
Australia is going to put on a fire show this year on the East Coast.
It is extremely dry.
The heat is already in the middle of Australia and waiting for the wind to blow it East.
The prediction for the coming three months is well below average rain and well above average temps.
Tropic forests are burning (that shouldnt be happening at all) right now.
If we are lucky, we will avoid a massive disaster.
-
Oops.
If this is Western Australia, it's the first time I have seen wildfires in the Indian ocean?
Well, North could have been down with the wind blowing smoke westward over the Indian Ocean (clearly the land is to the left of the white like line - I like to think it is 'surf' and not a mapmaker's addition* :P). But it looks like 'prevailing winds', and they would be from the west, not to the west.
And isn't that Fraser Island near the image's top? Who moved it from Queensland to Western Australia? :o Does blumenkraft have powers we don't know about? :D
______
* - I remember from some years ago an article somewhere that said the image shown was "exactly what folks on the International Space Station would see." The image was of the eastern part of North America, with white state boundaries included. I've seen big white plastic sheeting "X"s on the ground for 'ground proofing' air photography (I presume). It must have been some project outlining all the eastern states with the stuff! ::) :P
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Sydney has just entered its fire season.
Quote from the article.......
The NSW Rural Fire Service (RFS) has warned Tuesday's bushfire risk for the Greater Sydney and Greater Hunter areas is set to be "catastrophic".
It is the first time the Sydney region has been rated at that level since the new fire danger ratings were introduced in 2009.
The RFS has launched a strong warning that "lives and homes will be at risk" as high temperatures, strong winds and low humidity combine to create fierce conditions.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-10/nsw-weather-conditions-ease-but-high-risk-fires-expected/11690080
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Australia
NSW bushfires: RFS upgrades 'catastrophic' fire conditions after Premier declares state of emergency
The "catastrophic" fire warning for the Greater Sydney and Hunter regions has been extended to include the Illawarra and Shoalhaven regions after NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian declared a state of emergency for the next seven days as the state prepares for extreme bushfire conditions.
The Victorian Black Saturday bushfires occurred during similar conditions, Rural Fire Service Commander Shane Fitzsimmons said on Monday morning.
"The fire danger is now expected to be worse than originally forecast," the RFS said.
"The Illawarra Shoalhaven has now been added as an area of Catastrophic fire danger.
"Catastrophic is the highest level of bush fire danger. Homes are not designed to withstand a fire under these conditions.
"If a fire starts and takes hold during Catastrophic fire danger conditions, lives and homes will be at risk.
Catastrophic fire danger is now forecast for the Greater Sydney, Greater Hunter and Illawarra Shoalhaven areas, due to worsening weather conditions.
The state of emergency declared by the Premier on Monday came after Rural Fire Service Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons wrote to her on Sunday night requesting the emergency powers.
The last time such an emergency declaration was made in the state was in October 2013, when there were extensive bushfires in the Blue Mountains, the Premier said.
The broad emergency powers allow the RFS Commissioner to control and coordinate the allocation of government resources; direct any government agency to conduct or refrain from conducting its functions; evacuate people from property; close roads; order the shutdown of essential utilities including gas and water; and take possession of property. ...
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/almost-one-million-hectares-burnt-as-catastrophic-bushfire-conditions-loom-20191111-p539a5.h
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I will pile on a bit. The next 48 hours are going to produce a potentially terrible situation concerning fire storms.
What boggles me is how the Govt is still ignoring climate change and denying the links between the coming events and climate change.
From the article:
People in bushfire-risk areas have been told to start thinking now about a survival plan and head to larger towns and built-up areas.
Commissioner Fitzsimmons warned, "we cannot guarantee a fire truck at every home" and encouraged early evacuation for those at risk.
"If you're not doing that tonight, you certainly need to be doing it early tomorrow morning," he said.
"We know the fires on the northern coast are not going to be contained ahead of tomorrow's weather, which means those fires are going to spread, they're going to spread quickly and spread aggressively."
A total fire ban is in place statewide for Monday and Tuesday and some schools have been closed.
Commissioner Fitzsimmons said more than 1,400 personnel from interstate had joined the firefighting effort in NSW and 400 more were set to arrive today ahead of tomorrow's dangerous conditions.
He said up to 20 firefighters had already accessed medical attention in hospitals as blazes intensified.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-11/nsw-bushfires-850000-hectares-destroyed-worst-to-come/11691038
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“Gagging climate change experts from speaking in the middle of a bushfire disaster is a new low from this government.”
Link >> https://tamino.wordpress.com/2019/11/13/gagging-climate-change-experts-from-speaking-in-the-middle-of-a-bushfire-disaster-is-a-new-low-from-this-government/
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I liked this perspective on the Australian bush fires and was moved by the symbol of hope this person had. A longish but worthwhile read.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-17/bushfires-my-sons-birth-gives-me-hope/11709776
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Hope is nice but she actually has to demand that future along with the other Australians.
-
This is what it looks like when your government sells out the climate for votes
“We can’t talk about climate because the country is burning.”
Let’s be clear about what this line of argument is.
It’s self-serving crap.
https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/15/this-is-what-it-looks-like-when-your-government-sells-out-the-climate-for-votes