Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Consequences => Topic started by: Sleepy on December 30, 2015, 06:20:44 AM

Title: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on December 30, 2015, 06:20:44 AM
2015 has come to an end and the El Nino has peaked. The aftermath awakens- ;)
Since more and more posts concerns weird weather and also expected atmospheric responses in the northern hemisphere after the 2015 El Nino, I'll start my first thread.

Science is expecting the atmospheric response to be strongest during January-March, as that follows what have been concluded in the past. But atmospheric coupling has not been like in 97-98 and I would suspect that warming in general is playing a larger role now and it should affect the aftermath as well. So, how will the aftermath of this El Nino play out?

I'll start by reposting this link with a collection of older papers regarding ENSO effects in Europe.
https://agwobserver.wordpress.com/2010/12/02/papers-on-enso-effects-in-europe/ (https://agwobserver.wordpress.com/2010/12/02/papers-on-enso-effects-in-europe/)
Europe and specifically Scandinavia is my personal interest, but feel free to post about ENSO related effects anywhere. And more recent papers of course.

A recent repost of this link from AER.
Arctic Oscillation Analysis and Forecasts
https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation (https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation)

I'll quote the part regarding El Nino and MJO which should be familiar if you have followed the El Nino thread(s).
Figure 11 shows the weekly global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. A strong El Niño is still apparent as equatorial eastern Pacific SSTs remain near record high levels, and both dynamical and statistical models continue to predict a strong El Niño for the duration of the winter. The SST anomalies have plateaued and are likely past their peak. Also of note, the models are predicting a fairly rapid weakening of El Niño through the winter months, which is fairly typical. The atmospheric response to El Niño is strongest in the months January-March and it will be interesting to see how closely the atmospheric response projects onto forecasts derived from a strong El Niño.   But at least as if on cue, the models are predicting a strong southerly Jet Stream across the Southern United States.  Another key feature in the North Pacific basin is the very warm waters in the eastern North Pacific and the north central North Pacific. It will be interesting to see if yet once again the warm temperatures in the eastern North Pacific can couple with atmospheric ridging, which is now predicted for early to mid-January.

Tropical convection is currently in moderate amplitude phase six (Figure 12) but is predicted to weaken significantly as it enters phases seven and especially eight. Phases seven and eight are associated with above normal geopotential heights in western North America, below normal geopotential heights in eastern North America and cold temperatures, therefore the MJO may help force a trough in the Eastern United States especially if it is stronger as predicted by the GFS model; though the GFS is currently not predicting stronger ridging in western North America than the ECMWF despite forecasting a much stronger MJO.


Figure 11 & 12 attached.

I don't interfere too much in the arctic sea ice threads but an important quote about that as well.
Arctic sea ice extent is expanding but continues to track well below normal (Figure 10).  The largest negative sea ice extent anomalies are almost exclusively in the Barents-Kara seas as sea ice extent is near normal on the North Pacific side of the Arctic.  With the strong advection of heat predicted into the North Atlantic side of the Arctic, we expect the trends in sea ice anomalies to continue.  This is in contrast to last year when the negative departures in sea ice were more extensive on the North Pacific side and less on the North Atlantic side.  As we anticipated, the negative sea ice anomalies in the Barents-Kara Seas region is favoring a northward shift of the positive geopotential height anomaly currently over Central Europe closer to the Barents-Kara Seas region.  In addition based on our recent research, low Arctic sea ice especially in the Barents-Kara Seas favors increased vertical energy transfer preferentially in January followed by a weakening of the polar vortex and eventually a negative winter AO.   Therefore the low Arctic sea ice increases our confidence in our expectations of further vertical atmospheric energy transfer, weakening of the polar vortex and a negative AO.

I've been told that the atmosphere from ~2000m above the pole and upwards should get colder in a warming world. When you have more heat going through thinner ice, and more heat pushing towards the north pole in the lower layers of the atmosphere, that's an amazing chimney in my mind. 2016 and 2017 will be really interesting regarding the sea ice minimum.

Trying to understand and visualize all of this chaos is almost absurd.
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: LRC1962 on December 30, 2015, 07:19:40 AM
Based on 'normal" El Nino temp charts, the North Pacific is cool and thee North Atlantic is warm. Based on the SST's as they are currently the opposite could be the case. How will the effect possible Highs and Lows in those areas? How will that affect the jet stream? How could that in the end effect the "normal" El Nino" weather patterns? Could it be possible the El Nino could restrengthen as there is obviously still a lot of heat still in the Pacific Ocean that has not been gotten rid of into the atmosphere?
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: Sleepy on December 30, 2015, 08:51:18 AM
There's certainly a lot of questions to be answered in the coming months. Right now there are some more WWB's going on and it is possible that we will see a strengthening. But I think we have passed the peak.

If 97-98 was a fast express train, this one is like a slow and heavy freight train. Looking at the upper ocean conditions (first attachment) and specifically at the basin-wide heat anomalies it would be much more likely (in my mind) that this event will take some more time to taper off.

Also the corrected pdfs from CFSv2 are looking almost silly now, still indicating that steep drop in temperatures for January at 2° (corrected) vs 2.5° (uncorrected).
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 01, 2016, 03:49:39 PM
The first two images are from the Nullschool for Jan 1 2016 for 850-hPa (elevation) Wind & Temperature - TPW, respectively, showing that tropical water vapor is carrying heat up the US West Coast to the Alaskan Gulf; that the SPCZ is well established, and that the WWB is relatively strong:

The third & fourth images are 5S-5N Wind Anom forecasts from the U at Albany from Jan 1 to 8, 2016 for 850-hPa, and 200-hPa, respectively; indicate both relatively strong WWB activity and that the Walker Cell is configured to support El Nino conditions.

The following Long Paddock Station SOI data shows that while the daily SOI supports El Nino conditions the 30-day moving average moved up as the numbers leaving the average are more negative than that entering the average:

Date           Tahiti     Darwin   Daily** 30 day avg SOI   90 day avg SOI

3 Dec 2015 1005.65 1011.10 -47.50        -6.08                  -15.01
 
...

1 Jan 2016  1006.69 1009.00 -32.50       -9.62                   -10.96

Finally, in the future I imagine that our current El Nino event will be known as the 2015-16 event, as El Nino conditions are guaranteed to last for some months to come.
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 01, 2016, 05:06:48 PM
The attached NOAA GFS Ensemble MJO forecast from Jan 1 to 15, 2016 remains relatively bullish for atmospheric conditions supporting El Nino conditions, which might even support another downwelling phase of the EKW (possibly resulting in a secondary Nino 3.4 peak, well below the 2015 peak):
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 02, 2016, 03:46:10 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average has remained constant at -8.0 (which somewhat supports El Nino conditions):
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 02, 2016, 03:16:30 PM
The first plot shows NOAA's Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for Dec 29 2015, indicating that the downwelling phase of the EKW was still degrading up to that date.

The second NOAA plot of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom circa Jan 1 2016 indicates that the degradation of the downwelling phase of the EKW may have reached a temporary bottom (or plateau) at its lowest level since the Feb/March 2015 timeframe, and which may (or may not) start to increase due to the relatively high WWB currently occurring near the Dateline.

The third and fourth images projected for January 5, 2016 of the Earth 200-hPa Wind and TCW, & TPW, respectively, show the Asian Jetstream has reached California and that by Jan 5th 2016 light Pineapple Express rains may reach Southern California with the prospect of more waves of tropical rain event to follow due to the large gyre north of the equator near 120E (due to the high MJO forecast for that timeframe) that should be entraining precipitable water from the Philippines into the Asian Jetstream.

Edit: The third & fourth images also show a slowly weakening SPCZ event still exists around Jan 5th 2016
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 02, 2016, 04:33:42 PM
More on the AO, from the Weird Weather thread:

New York Metro Weather gives a technical discussion of the massive change about to happen in the NH atmosphere, as the arctic cold currently bottled up near the pole faces a major disruption.
Quote
Thousands of miles away, forecast models are in great agreement that over the next few days, a tremendously anomalous ridge will develop through the Kara Sea. This ridge will quickly become the most dominant feature on the globe, especially in the mid levels of the atmosphere. It’s strength and presence will change the global circulations around it — and also force a disruption to the lower levels of the stratosphere.

Research on height records in the Kara sea during the months of December, January, and February shows that the GEFS are forecasting this ridge to be the strongest ever during this time period — by a fairly wide margin. Only a few years come remotely close to the strength of the forecasted ridge and heights in the mid levels of the atmosphere. This ridge will be a catalyst in setting off changes to the mid level atmospheric pattern.

As it develops, it will push northwestward toward the higher latitudes near the Pole, aiding in the development of some high latitude blocking. When juxtaposed with a ridge on the Western part of North America (which we will discuss shortly) it helps disrupt the polar vortex which had previously, for much of December, been quite stout and centralized.

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/12/29/warmth-on-borrowed-time-as-january-pa/ (https://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/12/29/warmth-on-borrowed-time-as-january-pa/)
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 02, 2016, 04:42:24 PM
The first & second attached images are from the U at Albany 5S-5N wind anom forecasts from Jan 2 to 9, 2016, for 850-hPa and 200-hPa, respectively.  These images show the current major WWB event continuing throughout the forecast period & that beginning in the second week of January both the WWB should strengthen & broaden eastward and also the Walker Cell should shift further into an El Nino pattern.
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 03, 2016, 02:17:43 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -8.2:

20151203,20160101,-8.2


Edit: Attached is the associated plot
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 03, 2016, 05:55:28 PM
The first two images show the U at Albany forecasts from Jan 3 to 10, 2016 for the 5S-5N 850-hPa, and the 200-hPa, Wind Anom, respectively.  These images both support the idea that a major WWB is developing and that the Walker Cell (for the period of the forecast) will increasingly favor El Nino conditions.

The second two images show Nullschool Earth TPW Maps for Jan 7, 2016, for 850-hPa Wind, and 250-hPa Wind, respectively.  These maps collectively show that:
(1) The Asian Jetstream will temporarily be disrupted by a high pressure system; which will delay significant Pineapple Express activity in California until later in the second week in January.
(2) Significant MJO activity will begin around the International Dateline, with associated high WWB activity and a Walker Cell configured to support El Nino reinforcement.
(3) A low pressure system near Tahiti will keep the daily SOI low (negative).
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 04, 2016, 02:39:16 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued dropping down to -8.4:
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 04, 2016, 04:50:56 PM
As DO has not posted yet, I provide the following comparison of select NOAA's Nino index data for the 1997-98 and the 2015-16 El Nino events.  This data shows that the Nino 3.4 for the week centered on Dec 30 2015 has remained constant at +2.7 and is still comparable to the 1997-98 event (expect the Nino 1&2 & 3 are weaker while the Nino 4 is stronger):

                       Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week             SST SSTA  SST SSTA   SST SSTA   SST SSTA

 05NOV1997     25.0 3.7     28.4 3.4     29.2 2.6     29.2 0.6
 12NOV1997     25.8 4.3     28.5 3.6     29.3 2.7     29.5 0.8
 19NOV1997     25.8 4.1     28.6 3.6     29.3 2.7     29.7 1.1
 26NOV1997     25.9 3.9     28.7 3.7     29.4 2.8     29.7 1.1
 03DEC1997     26.2 3.9     28.6 3.6     29.2 2.6     29.4 0.9
 10DEC1997     26.7 4.2     28.7 3.6     29.2 2.7     29.4 0.9
 17DEC1997     27.0 4.1     28.8 3.6     29.3 2.7     29.3 0.8
 24DEC1997     27.2 4.0     28.8 3.5     29.3 2.7     29.3 0.9
 31DEC1997     27.7 4.1     28.9 3.5     29.2 2.7     29.2 0.8

 
 04NOV2015     23.4 2.1     27.8 2.8     29.5 2.8     30.3 1.7
 11NOV2015     23.5 2.0     27.9 3.0     29.7 3.0     30.3 1.7
 18NOV2015     23.8 2.1     28.0 3.0     29.7 3.1     30.4 1.8
 25NOV2015     24.4 2.4     28.0 3.0     29.6 3.0     30.3 1.8
 02DEC2015     24.7 2.4     27.9 2.9     29.5 2.9     30.2 1.7
 09DEC2015     24.8 2.3     28.0 2.9     29.4 2.8     30.2 1.7
 16DEC2015     25.2 2.4     28.0 2.9     29.5 2.9     30.2 1.7
 23DEC2015     25.2 2.1     28.0 2.7     29.3 2.7     30.0 1.6
 30DEC2015     25.2 1.6     28.0 2.6     29.3 2.7     29.9 1.5

Furthermore, the first & second images were issued today by NOAA's NCEP for the Eq Pac Evolutions for the Upper-Ocean Heat Content, and the SSTA, respectively.  This data shows that the current EKW is in an upwelling trough and that NOAA has not yet identified any possible future downwelling phase.

The third image shows NOAA's GFS Ensemble MJO forecast from Jan 4 to 18 2016. which is particularly bullish for continued support of El Nino conditions.

The fourth image shows U at Albany's 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Jan 4 to 11 2016; which is also particularly bullish for a major WWB event associated with the major MJO event.
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 04, 2016, 04:59:05 PM
The first two images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Jan 3 2016.  The first image shows that the Nino 3.4 index has dropped down to +2.20; and the second image shows that the IOD is now negative (which supports long-term degradation of El Nino conditions).

The third image shows the Nullschool Earth 850-hPa Wind & TPW forecast for Jan 8 2016, showing: (1) precipitation continuing to move from the Central Pacific to the US West Coast, with the possibility of Tropical water moving to the US West Coast by the end of the second week in January; (2) Strong WWB activity and (3) Continued negative SOI daily values.

The fourth image shows NASA's forecast for rain throughout California for Jan 4 2016, and I note that this precipitation was delivered by the Asian Jetstream
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 04, 2016, 05:03:33 PM
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM for the Nino 1, 2, 3 and 4 indices, respectively, for the week ending Jan 3 2016.  All of these indices have dropped, indicating weakening of the current EKW.  However, note that the Nino 4 index remains relatively high, raising the prospect that the forecast high WWB activity could initiate another phase of downwelling for the current EKW.
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 04, 2016, 06:41:01 PM
As DO normally provides the NOAA SSTA plot, I provide the attached plot for Jan 4 2016, indicating that the current El Nino event is not changing rapidly, but is slowly declining:
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 04, 2016, 06:54:55 PM
The two linked articles discuss possible links between the current strong El Nino and the North Atlantic extreme weather:

http://robertscribbler.com/2016/01/04/climate-change-and-el-nino-locked-in-tempestuous-embrace-teleconnection-between-hot-equatorial-pacific-and-north-atlantic-cool-pool/ (http://robertscribbler.com/2016/01/04/climate-change-and-el-nino-locked-in-tempestuous-embrace-teleconnection-between-hot-equatorial-pacific-and-north-atlantic-cool-pool/)

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/27/uk-floods-and-extreme-global-weather-linked-to-el-nino-and-climate-change (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/27/uk-floods-and-extreme-global-weather-linked-to-el-nino-and-climate-change)

Also, the following linked article discusses possible connections between the 1918-19 El Nino event and the Spanish Flu outbreak; which, raises the question about sickness occurring in those weakened in 2016 by drought associated with the current strong El Nino:

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/pandemic_1918_1919.html (http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/pandemic_1918_1919.html)
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 04, 2016, 07:58:14 PM
I have read that the NCPE Ensemble MJO forecast is suppose to have a little bit more skill than the GFS Ensemble MJO forecast, so I attach the NCPE forecast from Jan 4 to 18 2016; & I note that it is only a little bit less bullish than the GFS forecast that I posted earlier:
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 04, 2016, 08:08:39 PM
I haven't posted the Kyle MacRitchie Nino forecasts in a long time, so here is a link and an attached forecast issued Jan 4 2016, indicating a forecasted brief increase in the Nino 3.4 near the beginning of the third week in January 2016:

http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/ensosst-3-4/ (http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/ensosst-3-4/)

Edit: Also note the forecasted increase in the Nino 1+2 index around the end of March 2016
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: Steven on January 04, 2016, 11:45:59 PM
The ERSSTv4 monthly sea surface temperature anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region for December 2015 came in at +2.38°C (relative to baseline 1981-2010):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst4.nino.mth.81-10.ascii (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst4.nino.mth.81-10.ascii)


Here are the monthly values for the last 12 months, and the corresponding values for 1997:

                Jan    Feb   Mar   Apr    May    Jun   Jul    Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
1997       -0.55 -0.39 -0.33  0.17  0.56  1.09  1.44  1.74  1.98  2.25  2.33  2.20
2015         0.50  0.35  0.41  0.73  0.86  0.97  1.19  1.51  1.75  2.04  2.37  2.38



The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for October-November-December 2015  (3-month average) came in at +2.25°C:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt)


                DJF    JFM   FMA  MAM  AMJ   MJJ   JJA    JAS   ASO  SON  OND  NDJ
1997      -0.50 -0.42 -0.18  0.14  0.61  1.03  1.42  1.72  1.98  2.18  2.26  2.25
2015        0.52  0.43  0.50  0.67  0.86  1.01  1.23  1.48  1.76  2.04  2.25
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 05, 2016, 12:33:01 AM
The attached plot downloaded on Jan 4 2016 compares the WWV in the Eastern and Western Pacific, through the end of 2015.  This plot makes it clear that the current El Nino event has taken less WWV from the Western Pacific than either the 83-84 or the 97-98 events; which raises the possibility/probability that the current major WWB still has more warm water available for it to push into the Eastern Pacific, thus possibly slowing the rate decline of the current El Nino (and possibly creating a secondary [lower] Nino 3.4 peak in the coming month or two):

Edit: Note that you need to slide the bar to the right to see the whole plot.
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 05, 2016, 03:09:20 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has continued dropping to -9.0, and looks set-up to continue dropping from some number of days/weeks:
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 05, 2016, 03:53:36 PM
For those wondering, the El Nino induced conveyor belt of rainfall has officially begun for the US West Coast:

http://www.latimes.com/local/weather/la-me-el-nino-20160105-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/weather/la-me-el-nino-20160105-story.html)

Extract: "At least four storms were brewing — the farthest still getting going in Asia — and all aimed at California.

It's this pattern, a series of back-to-back-to-back storms seemingly arriving on a conveyor belt, that concerns officials bracing for potential damage from the predicted winter of heavy rains.

"El Niño storms: it's steady, not spectacular. But it's relentless," said Bill Patzert, climatologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge. "It's not 10 inches in 24 hours and nothing afterward. It's a 1-inch storm, a 2-inch storm, followed by a 1-inch storm, followed by a 2-inch storm.
 
"As this goes on for many weeks, then you start to soak the hillsides — then you get more instability. And then, instead of having 6 inches of mud running down your street or off the hillside behind your house, then you can get serious mudflows — 2 to 3 feet in height.""
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 05, 2016, 05:39:51 PM
The first two images are of NOAA's NCPE, & GFS, Ensemble MJO forecasts from Jan 5 to 19 2016, respectively, both indicating strong support for El Nino conditions for this full two week period.

The third & fourth images are of the U at Albany's 5S-5N forecasts from Jan 5 to Jan 12, 2016 for the 850-hPa and the 200-hPa, Wind Anoms, respectively.  Both indicate strong support for El Nino conditions over this one week period:
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 05, 2016, 05:44:29 PM
The two attached image are from the Nullschool forecast for Jan 9, 2016, for the Earth 850-hPa & TPW, and the Earth 200-hPa & TPW, respectively.  Both indicate that air with high TPW content will be advected into the Asian Jetstream from the tropics, which might increase the associated rainfall hitting the US West Coast when this water traverses the Pacific towards the end of the second week in January 2016:

Edit: They also show a major WWB associated with the MJO being located near the Dateline at that time.
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 05, 2016, 06:24:40 PM
As BigB use to like to post daily information from the Tropical Tidbits website, I offer the two attached plots downloaded from there today, first showing that the Nino 4 index went up today (I assume due to the current WWB), and second that while the North Pacific is cooling (thus reducing the value of the PDO), the South Pacific is warming (thus indicating that the IPO is either neutral or increasing):
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: Steven on January 05, 2016, 08:01:55 PM
The first two images are of NOAA's NCPE, & GFS, Ensemble MJO forecasts from Jan 5 to 19 2016, respectively, both indicating strong support for El Nino conditions for this full two week period.

For comparison, below is the ECMWF ensemble forecast, which suggests that the MJO index moves from phase 8 to phase 1 on approximately January 12th, 2016:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FZf1GeIs.gif&hash=2f5659f1e73a14060860abe4cebbba13)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml)
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 05, 2016, 10:11:51 PM
While MJO patterns can be relatively difficult to forecast, they tend to exhibit a circulation pattern as indicated in the attached cartoon at both 200-hPa and 850-hPa elevations.  Therefore, their location can be estimated by looking at the patterns shown in Nullschool's Earth Maps near those elevations as shown in the first and second images in Reply #24 for January 9, 2016 (which shows the center of the MJO pattern east of the International Dateline, as do the NCPE, GFS and the ECMWF MJO forecasts for that date).  It will be interesting to compare the Nullschool's to NOAA's to the European Centre's MJO location forecasts over the next few days.

Edit: Also, I note that the U at Albany WWB pattern shown in Reply #23 from Jan 5 to 12, 2016; hint that they feel that the MJO will stay near the international dateline through Jan 12, 2016.
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 06, 2016, 02:45:09 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has continued dropping down to -10.1:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Neven on January 06, 2016, 12:42:59 PM
Sleepy, I've slightly adjusted your topic title, so that it can serve as the replacement for the old 2015 El Niño thread.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 06, 2016, 04:25:36 PM
Per the following extract from the January 5 2016, BoM ENSO Overview, the second half of 2016 has something less than a 50% of having a neutral ENSO, with little chance of continuing El Nino conditions,  (Note the first plot shows the current BoM POAMA Nino 3.4 forecast starting Jan 3 2016, indicates neutral conditions until at least September 2016):

BoM ENSO Overview Extract: "Recent bursts of westerly winds over the equatorial western Pacific may temporarily slow the decline of El Niño.
Based on the 26 El Niño events since 1900, around 50% have been followed by a neutral year, while 40% have been followed by La Niña. Models also suggest neutral and La Niña are equally likely for the second half of 2016, with a repeat El Niño the least likely outcome
."

I have previously stated that I believe that our current El Nino event is much more like the 82-83 Super El Nino Event (which had neutral conditions in the second half of 1983) than the 97-98 event that was followed by a La Nina.  Indeed, the attached second image of the MEI plot shows a somewhat low Standardized MEI Departure for the Oct/Nov 2015 value due to relatively low atmospheric contributions in that timeframe.  However, the 3-Standardized MEI Departures for the 82-83 event did not occur until the Jan/Feb 1983 timeframe, and I believe that the current (2016) high WWB & MJO activity will raise the MEI values for January 2016 from what they have been.  Thus, the chances that the second half of 2016 having neutral ENSO conditions, may very well be more than 50%.

To support the ideas that the Jan 2016 atmospheric conditions will contribute to high MEI values, I offer:
A) The BoM currently indicates high cloud cover near the Equatorial Dateline.
B) The third & fourth images of the Nullschool forecast for January 10, 2016 for Earth 850-hPa Wind & TPW Map, and for Earth 250-hPa Wind & TPW Map, respectively.  In my opinion these show that the MJO is located close to where it was forecast to be on Jan 9, 2016 and is not moving rapidly eastward.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 06, 2016, 04:40:33 PM
The first two images are from the U at Albany 5S-5N Wind Anom forecasts from Jan 6 to 13, 2016 for the 850-hPa, and 200-hPa, elevations respectively.  Both imply that the MJO will be near the International Dateline through the forecast period, with strong WWBs and Walker Cell conditions in an El Nino pattern.

The third image of a satellite photo for Jan 6 2016, shows strong cloud cover near the Eq Dateline.

The fourth image shows NOAA's GFS Ensemble MJO forecast from Jan 6 to 20, 2016, which indicates that the MJO may likely remain near the Dateline.
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: Steven on January 06, 2016, 05:23:06 PM
It will be interesting to compare the Nullschool's to NOAA's to the European Centre's MJO location forecasts over the next few days.

There is a side-by-side comparison of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts for the MJO index, on the webpage below (updated daily):

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/phasediags.html (http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/phasediags.html)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on January 06, 2016, 05:59:13 PM
the attached second image of the MEI plot shows a somewhat low Standardized MEI Departure for the Oct/Nov 2015 value 

An updated version of that graph was just posted on the MEI website, up to Nov/Dec 2015:


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.esrl.noaa.gov%2Fpsd%2Fenso%2Fmei%2Fcomp.png&hash=61d825f05dbea057d0af8b450786b040)

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/#discussion (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/#discussion)

Quote
Compared to last month, the updated (November-December) MEI has dropped slightly (by 0.19) to +2.12, continuing at the 3rd highest ranking, and about 0.3 sigma behind 1982 and 1997 for this season. The August-September 2015 value of +2.53 remains the third highest overall at any time of year since 1950. The evolution of the 2015 El Niño remains very similar to 1997, as monitored by the MEI, including a first peak in August-September and subsequent weakening during the remainder of the calendar year. In 1998, this was followed by a fairly strong rebound that peaked in late boreal winter 0.4 sigma higher than in Novemeber-December.
Title: Re: 2015 El Niño, the aftermath.
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 06, 2016, 06:01:25 PM
It will be interesting to compare the Nullschool's to NOAA's to the European Centre's MJO location forecasts over the next few days.

There is a side-by-side comparison of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts for the MJO index, on the webpage below (updated daily):

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/phasediags.html (http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/phasediags.html)

I notice that your link leads to Prof. Paul Roundy's website, and that Michael Ventrice (who I believe was one of Roundy's star students) now works in Europe.  Thus, I imagine that the US and European experts talk regularly to each other, and compare notes, and this will be a good test of the skill level in the different forecast systems.

However, I believe that the Roundy site compares the NCPE to the ECMF forecasts (see the labels below from the linked Clivar site).  However, I believe that what I have been calling the GFS Ensemble should be called the NCPB as it is bias-corrected and should better show NOAA's skill, and the ECMM included dependent model climatology and should better show the European Centre's skill.  So for the next few weeks I will post only the NCPB and the ECMM MJO forecast plots (while we are comparing system skill).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml)

NCPE: National Centers for Environmental Prediction - Ensemble Global Forecast System
NCPB: National Centers for Environmental Prediction - Bias-Corrected Ensemble Global Forecast System
ECMF: European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts - Ensemble System
ECMM: European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts - Ensemble System (anomalies based on lead dependent model climatology)

Furthermore, as the NCPB & the ECMM both show the MJO centered a little bit east of the Dateline today, I provide the first two attached images of the Nullschool forecast for Jan 6 2016 for the 850-hPa & MSLP, and the 250-hPa & MSLP, Maps respectively; to show what these parameters look like when all parties agree where the MJO is located.

The NCPB forecast is thus the fourth image in Reply #31, while the ECMM MJO forecast from Jan 6 to 20 2016 is the third image in this post and the fourth image is the NCPE forecast for the same period.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: crandles on January 06, 2016, 06:08:00 PM
ONI 2.3 for OND same as OND 97 the peak of 97/98 El Nino ONI numbers:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml)

Though MEI makes this El Nino look likely to be weaker than both 97/98 and 82/3.

What measure is most suitable for ranking strength of events?
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 06, 2016, 07:03:53 PM
ONI 2.3 for OND same as OND 97 the peak of 97/98 El Nino ONI numbers:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml)

Though MEI makes this El Nino look likely to be weaker than both 97/98 and 82/3.

What measure is most suitable for ranking strength of events?

It is my opinion that the ONI three-month average is the best indicator of the strength of an El Nino, w.r.t. to its impact on worldwide weather as it is this ocean surface temperature that impacts evaporation that drives the teleconnection of atmospheric energy to various parts of the world.  Also note that Steven's Reply #19 states: "The ERSSTv4 monthly sea surface temperature anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region for December 2015 came in at +2.38°C (relative to baseline 1981-2010)"; which means that on a monthly bases the 2015-16 El Nino was stronger in December than the 97-98 event.

The MEI reports standard deviation not direct strength (like Nino 3.4) and thus in my opinion is a better indicator for projecting likely ENSO behavior (as is considers deviations from climatology by season for about 6 different atmospheric and oceanic parameters), however, I do not believe that it is a good measure of the ENSO impact on worldwide weather as our current event is having an very large (I believe the largest) impact on world weather (but it is hard to separate the impact of climate change from the ENSO impact, but the UK Met office estimated that their recent extreme weather is 40% due to the El Nino and 60% due to climate change).

Finally, I note that if either the NDJ or the DJF ONI reaches (or exceeds) a value of 2.5, in my opinion our current El Nino will move from a Super to a Godzilla category.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 06, 2016, 08:45:09 PM
The MEI website linked below was updated on Jan 5 2016 and notes that the: "… November-December MEI dropped slightly (by 0.19) to +2.12, …":

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/)

Extract: "In the context of strong El Niño conditions since March-April 2015, this section features a comparison figure with the classic set of strong El Niño events during the MEI period of record.
Compared to last month, the updated (November-December) MEI has dropped slightly (by 0.19) to +2.12, continuing at the 3rd highest ranking, and about 0.3 sigma behind 1982 and 1997 for this season. The August-September 2015 value of +2.53 remains the third highest overall at any time of year since 1950. The evolution of the 2015 El Niño remains very similar to 1997, as monitored by the MEI, including a first peak in August-September and subsequent weakening during the remainder of the calendar year. In 1998, this was followed by a fairly strong rebound that peaked in late boreal winter 0.4 sigma higher than in November-December."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: LRC1962 on January 06, 2016, 10:14:22 PM
ONI 2.3 for OND same as OND 97 the peak of 97/98 El Nino ONI numbers:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml)

Though MEI makes this El Nino look likely to be weaker than both 97/98 and 82/3.

What measure is most suitable for ranking strength of events?
In those previous events, El Nino was by far the major player in world wide weather. IMO, major complicating factors for the last 2 years include The north Pacific hot Blob, the cold Blob off Greenland plus the resulting slowed down Gulf Stream, the loss of ASI and the resulting slowed down Jet Stream.
Another big factor, but harder to define by earth bound measurements, is the vastly worsening energy imbalance.
Although by strict El Nino definitions 2014 was not an El Nino year, the heat upwelling did have impacts on the global scale, just that the other global factors caused a delay in its full manifestations. Right now if it peters out would still rank 3rd, but all indicators and history say that the next 6 months will tell a fuller story.
The questions I have is that what happens if there is a whole lot more heat still locked in the Pacific that is just biding its time to come to the surface? Is there enough energy in there to keep things going for another few more months? Is there enough energy and blockings to keep the other needed weather systems in place to keep El Nino energized?
Do to the energy imbalance  IMO we are in uncharted territory, and just by looking at historical events and declare this is what will happen is indeed what will happen. 5 years ago very few people were predicting the Blobs and TTT-RRR.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 06, 2016, 10:47:18 PM
The Pliocene (which lasted from 5 to 3 million years ago) had carbon dioxide levels similar to the present day, with global mean temperatures about 2-3ºC higher, so it offers some hints of what might happen to the ENSO in the coming decades.  In this regard, the linked reference (with a free pdf), indicates that during the Pliocene the Eastern Equatorial Pacific warmed (and stayed warm) relative to today (see the first image); but that the ENSO oscillation continued during this period (see the second image).  As the warm water pool in the Western Equatorial Pacific accumulates when the trade winds (during neutral and La Nina conditions) push the warm water from east to west along the equator.  Thus if the trade winds permanently are weakened and/or occur less frequently then the Eastern Equatorial Pacific should permanently warm (as was the case during the Pliocene) due to the solar radiation shining on it.  For such cases some climate change models estimate ECS values of between 4 & 5C.

Chris Brierley (2013), "ENSO behavior before the Pleistocene", PAGES news • Vol 21 • No 2

http://www.pages-igbp.org/download/docs/newsletter/2013-2/PAGESnews_2013(2)_70-71_Brierley.pdf (http://www.pages-igbp.org/download/docs/newsletter/2013-2/PAGESnews_2013(2)_70-71_Brierley.pdf)

Extract: "The Pliocene was characterized by a weak equatorial sea surface temperature gradient in the Pacific, confusingly reminiscent of that seen fleetingly during an El Niño. Data also show interannual variability in the Pliocene, raising questions about ENSO’s dependence on the mean climate state."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 07, 2016, 02:20:17 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down from -10.1 to -10.3:

20151207,20160105,-10.3

Edit: Here is the associated plot
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on January 07, 2016, 05:43:54 AM
Sleepy, I've slightly adjusted your topic title, so that it can serve as the replacement for the old 2015 El Niño thread.

Thanks Neven.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on January 07, 2016, 10:06:44 AM
Now we have Rock'n Roll weather in Scandinavia and Arctic temperatures, it was only two weeks ago since I cut my lawn... I just posted this in the weird weather thread:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,323.msg67964.html#msg67964 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,323.msg67964.html#msg67964)
And take a look at the following comment with the anomalies for yesterday.

Also adding the temperatures further north at 925mbar and the NSIDC sea ice extent.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 07, 2016, 05:08:34 PM
And now let the skill comparison between the European Centre's and NOAA's corrected MJO forecast systems continue:

The first image shows NOAA's NCPE (their GFS bias corrected system) MJO forecast from Jan 7 to 21 2016, which is very bullish for supporting El Nino conditions and has the MJO a little east of the dateline.

The second image show's the European Centre's ECMM (with climatology adjustments) MJO forecast from Jan 7 to 21 2016, which is far less bullish than NOAA showing the MJO centered much further east than NOAA.

The third and fourth images show the U at Albany (where Prof Roundy works) 5S-5N Wind Anom forecasts from Jan 7 to 14 2016 for 850-hPa and 200-hPa, respectively.  These forecasts are both very bullish for conditions supporting El Nino growth indicating that the U at Albany is thinking that NOAA's system is more skillful.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 07, 2016, 05:18:04 PM
Continuing on from my last post (comparing the EC's to NOAA's MJO forecast system skill):

All four attached images are from the Nullschool system for wind and TPW forecasts.  The first two images are for today Jan 7 2016 and show the 850-hPa, and 250-hPa, conditions, respectively.  These plots in my opinion show that the center of the MJO is closer to the NCPB forecast than the ECMM forecast.  The last two images are fore Jan 11 2016 for the 850-hPa, and 250-hPa, conditions, respectively.  Again, in my opinion these last two plots indicate the center of the MJO to be much closer to the NCPB forecast for this date than the ECMM forecast.  Thus indicating that the Nullschool favors NOAA's forecasts.

I admit that if both the U at Albany and the Nullschool use NOAA's data as inputs then of course their forecasts would better correlate with the NCPB forecast than the ECMM forecast, so we will need to keep watching for several days/weeks to see what actually develops in this key/critical timeframe for the ENSO cycle.

Edit: Also, note that the Jan 11 2016 forecasts show significant amounts of tropical TPW being entrained in the Asian Jetstream, where it should be carried to the US West Coast by the end of the second week in January, 2016.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 07, 2016, 08:00:34 PM
NOAA has recently released more ENSO data, which I provide below:

The first two images show the Eq Pacific Subsurface Temp Anom, and Temp, profiles, respectively, for Jan 3 2016.  These plots show that while the downwelling phase of the EKW has shrunk, the deepwater remains relatively warm, which will likely set-up a new phase of downwelling, now that the upwelling phase was unable to upwell any relatively cool water to disrupt the current Super El Nino.

The third image shows that the Eq Pacific Upper Ocean Heat Content, circa Jan 7 2016, has bottom-out and is well primed to turn up again with the next downwelling phase of the EKW.

The forth image shows the SSTA for Jan 7 2016, showing that the Super El Nino remains strong, that the PDO/IPO remain positive, and that the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is rapidly breaking-up which will likely bring record surface temperatures to Western Antarctica and high associated ice mass loss (linked to the teleconnection of energy from the Eastern Pacific to West Antarctica).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on January 07, 2016, 11:35:41 PM
Michael Ventrice posted the graphic below today on Twitter (using data from ECMWF), which suggests that the westerly wind burst will remain very strong during the next 5 days or so, but weaken quickly between about January 12-15, 2016.  It will be interesting to see whether this forecast holds.

http://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/685103398501367809 (http://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/685103398501367809)


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fmedia%2FCYH56R9WcAArD6r.png%3Alarge&hash=2ad8fd9abe43c44fa79b75e25e06f876)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 08, 2016, 12:46:10 AM
Michael Ventrice posted the graphic below today on Twitter (using data from ECMWF), which suggests that the westerly wind burst will remain very strong during the next 5 days or so, but weaken quickly between about January 12-15, 2016.  It will be interesting to see whether this forecast holds.

Honestly, I have nothing but respect for the work that I have seen Michael Ventrice perform, but as it is not his skill, but the skill of the European Centre MJO system that is in question here, so I provide the attached ECMF (not the ECMM) that shows that by January 14 when Ventrice's WWB stops abruptly the MJO is all the way over Africa and approaching the Indian Ocean.  While on Jan 14 the NCPB MJO forecast shows the MJO extremely weak (which would mean a very small WWB at that time) but located at the International Dateline where NOAA projects that it will stay and strengthen until at least Jan 21 2016.

That said, I acknowledge that Ventrice's projection is compatible with the U at Albany projection that ends on Jan 14, but that through that date they are both compatible with the NCPE MJO projection.  Therefore, I concur that it will be interesting to watch for the next week or two to see what actually happens. 
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 08, 2016, 02:37:22 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped sharply down to -11.4:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: John Batteen on January 08, 2016, 05:52:04 AM
Sleepy, is there snow on your grass to insulate it from the cold?  Similarly we in Minnesota are experiencing our first major Arctic outbreak after the warmest and wettest December on record in the Midwest.  I could use some sunshine but otherwise I'm quite enjoying the El Nino.

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/multimedia/releases/2016/20160106_MidwestExperiencesWarmestandWettestDecember.pdf (http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/multimedia/releases/2016/20160106_MidwestExperiencesWarmestandWettestDecember.pdf)

http://blog-weathertalk.extension.umn.edu/ (http://blog-weathertalk.extension.umn.edu/)
For the 4th consecutive month Minnesota recorded warmer than normal temperatures. Observers reported mean monthly temperatures for December that were from 8 to 12 degrees F above normal, marking the warmest December in history on a statewide basis, surpassing the previous record from December 1939.  Extremes for the month ranged from 53F at Marshall on the 9th to -11F at Thief River Falls on the 28th.

On a statewide basis December of 2015 was the 2nd wettest in history, with an average value of nearly 1.90 inches.  Some observers reported their wettest December in history, including: 4.09" at Two Harbors; 4.90" at Caledonia; 5.38" at La Crescent; 4.28" at Preston; and 4.00 inches at Spring Grove.  Snowfall amounts for the month ranged from 3 to 10 inches, with many northern locations receiving over a foot. 

For the Twin Cities specifically, December of 2015 was the 2nd warmest in history, surpassed only by 1877.  Only two days brought colder than normal temperatures.  It was the 9th wettest in history with 2.31 inches at MSP Airport.  Snowfall total was 9.4 inches.  Only one day was sunny, and two days were partly cloudy.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpublicradio1.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com%2Fupdraft%2Ffiles%2F2016%2F01%2F200-nws-cold.png&hash=0cf548981f28565741d7c9e722caeb06)




Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on January 08, 2016, 08:39:26 AM
Yes, we've had some snow. We need winter, nature needs winter. But we get less and less of it in the south and the effects after large El Ninos are only temporary pain killers.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 08, 2016, 04:49:46 PM
The first two images are from the Nullschool forecast for Jan 12 2016 for TPW and 850-hPa Wind, and 250-hPa Wind, respectively.  This forecast shows the MJO weakening but staying just east of the Dateline.

The last two images are from the U at Albany 5S-5N Wind Anom forecast from Jan 8 to 15 2016, for 850-hPa, and 200-hPa, respectively.  They show a weakening of the MJO and associate WWB by the 15th.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 08, 2016, 05:17:57 PM
As is to be expected for MJO forecasts that are updated with observed parameters daily, the NCPB and the ECMM projections are beginning to converge towards each other (from the past several days of forecasts).  Nevertheless, for the two plots of MJO forecasts from Jan 8 to 22 2016, for the NCPB, and the ECMM, respectively, on Jan 14 the NCPB shows a very weak MJO near the Dateline while the ECMM shows the MJO over the Indian Ocean.

It will be interesting to watch to see where the MJO actually is located in the Jan 12 to 16, 2016 timeframe.

Edit: I note that the Nullschool maps for Jan 8 2016 show that today the MJO is currently located much closer to the NCPB MJO forecast than for the ECMM forecast.  See for yourself at:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-183.30,7.72,303 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-183.30,7.72,303)
 
Edit 2: Or for those who do not like to click on links I provide the last two images for Jan 8 2016 from the Nullschool showing the MSLP and 850-hPa Wind, and 250-hPa Wind, Maps, respectively, which show the MJO centered exactly where the NCPB forecast (see first image) indicated that it would be today.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 08, 2016, 07:00:49 PM
The attached map and associated NOAA linked website show the extreme reef alert conditions created by our current Super (Godzilla?) El Nino:

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/vs/map.php (http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/vs/map.php)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 08, 2016, 11:07:17 PM
I am not sure how much faith to put in long-term weather forecasts; but nevertheless, the four attached images are from the Wundermap forecast, with the images center east of the Dateline.  The image are for the dates of Jan 8, 19, 20, and 24, respectively.  I provide the image on the 8th as a reference of the current MJO actively; while it looks to me that the images of the 19th, 20th and 24th show still greater MJO activity (near the Dateline):
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 09, 2016, 03:20:57 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -11.5.  I remind readers that sustained negative values for the SOI sufficiently below -8 supports El Nino conditions while strong MJO values normal create conditions that degrade El Nino conditions; unless the MJO is located sufficiently close to the International Dateline (which happens to be the case at this time).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on January 09, 2016, 04:42:52 AM
From an Eric Blake tweet.
2048 will be just fine.  ???
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 09, 2016, 03:26:01 PM
The first two images are from the Nullschool & show the Wind & MSLP for Jan 9 2016 at the respective elevations of 850-hPa, and 250-hPa.  These images indicate that the MJO is located about where the NCPB forecast yesterday.

The last two images are from the U at Albany Wind Anom forecast from Jan 9 to 16, 2016 at the respective elevation of 850-hPa, and 200-hPa.  Notice that the WWB reaches a minimum on Jan 15, and starts increasing on Jan 16; just as yesterday's NCPB forecast would imply.  Also, note that the 200-hPa image indicates that the Walker Cell is currently configured to support El Nino conditions; which is supported by the falling SOI values (as indicated by today's daily Long Paddock Station's SOI value of -22)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 09, 2016, 03:54:06 PM
Per the attached NOAA GFS Ensemble (NCPB) MJO forecast from Jan 9 to 23 2016, the MJO is currently in the middle of the Eastern Pacific but by the 14th may be over the Atlantic/Africa before circling back to be at the International Dateline again by Jan 16, 2016, where it is projected to grow which should produce more WWB activity as indicated by the long-term Wundermap forecast that I posted yesterday.

Edit: I note that the Clivar website does not update uniformly, but it has updated the NCPO: National Centers for Environmental Prediction - Operational Global Forecast System, MJO forecast from Jan 9 to 23 2016, as shown in the second posted image (that approximates the first image).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 09, 2016, 06:18:28 PM
To some, it may seem that I have made a lot of posts just to illustrate that one MJO forecasting system may have a higher skill rating than another MJO forecasting system, for a given (unique?) set of circumstances.  However, this issue is just a distraction responding to doubts that Steven reasonably raised, while the real issue is how long will our current Super (possible Godzilla) El Nino keep having a major impact on various Earth Systems, possibly leading to accelerated global warming.

In this regard, Sleepy posted the first attached image of NOAA's CFSv2 Nino 3.4 uncorrected forecast issued Dec 30 2015, based on Dec 19-28 initial conditions; while the second image shows a comparable image issued Jan 9 2016, base on Dec 30-Jan 8 initial conditions (note that the current WWB began in earnest on Dec 30 2015).  Comparing these two figures you will see that in the first the average Nino 3.4 in January 2016 is below 2.5, while in the second image it is above 2.5.  This is a meaningful difference due primarily to the magnitude of the WWB in the initial conditions of the two forecasts.  Furthermore, if the MJO does loop back to the Dateline, circa Jan 16 2016, the projected high Nino 3.4 conditions could last long enough to prevent a La Nina condition in the second half of 2016.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 10, 2016, 03:37:27 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -11.2:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 10, 2016, 10:54:21 AM
As the last Nullschool forecast (vs current reports) that I showed was for January 12, I now provide the three attached images forecast for January 14 2016.  The first & second images show the Earth Wind & TPW forecasts at 850-hPa and 250-hPa, respectively.  This images show a significant WWB, and a steady stream (conveyor belt of storms) of precipitable water being advected by the Asian Jetstream to the US West Coast.

The third image shows the Earth 1000-hPa Wind & Temperature forecast for Antarctica.  Note that this 1000-hPa data is probably only accurate at the 1000-hPa elevation along the coast line (as inland the ice sheet elevations are quite high).  Nevertheless, this plot shows that our current Super El Nino will advect sufficient atmospheric energy to Western Antarctica that there will be extensive ice surface melting (note that the green color is above freezing) along much of the coastal ice area, including the critical Amundsen Sea Embayment area.  This is a relatively infrequent event as speaks to both the strength of our current El Nino and the extent of global warming.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: A-Team on January 10, 2016, 03:12:37 PM
I've learned since my last post that the term La Nada has already been reserved for neutral sea level in the equatorial Pacific, the dominant weather pattern there, but an still chasing down why we never hear of a strong or even a moderate La Nada. I suppose these would encroach on the Nino/Nina catastrophism narrative.

Meanwhile the southern tier of the US, the focus of literally thousands of pronouncements of greatly heightened rainfall, remains in the tenacious grip of what local Hispanics call El Bostezo (the big yawn) which is an element of a much larger US meteorological phenomenon termed El Bombo (the hype). That is, we remain in drought conditions (La Sequía) with no change in sight.

The recent series of typical winter zonal flow rain storms off the north-central Pacific were, as expected, called an 'atmospheric river' or pineapple express (Spanish: Atribución errónea) despite the widespread availability of nullschool.

While there's no doubt this extraordinary El Nino will have very significant global climatic impacts, it appears to me living here at Ground Zero USA that it has been over-written by even more forceful goings-on, namely a stationary jet stream lobe (like last year, only to the west).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 10, 2016, 03:34:05 PM
The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge persists and I fear it will continue to emerge as a semi-permanent feature of northern hemisphere weather patterns.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 10, 2016, 06:40:17 PM
I've learned since my last post that the term La Nada has already been reserved for neutral sea level in the equatorial Pacific, the dominant weather pattern there, but an still chasing down why we never hear of a strong or even a moderate La Nada. I suppose these would encroach on the Nino/Nina catastrophism narrative.

Meanwhile the southern tier of the US, the focus of literally thousands of pronouncements of greatly heightened rainfall, remains in the tenacious grip of what local Hispanics call El Bostezo (the big yawn) which is an element of a much larger US meteorological phenomenon termed El Bombo (the hype). That is, we remain in drought conditions (La Sequía) with no change in sight.

The recent series of typical winter zonal flow rain storms off the north-central Pacific were, as expected, called an 'atmospheric river' or pineapple express (Spanish: Atribución errónea) despite the widespread availability of nullschool.

While there's no doubt this extraordinary El Nino will have very significant global climatic impacts, it appears to me living here at Ground Zero USA that it has been over-written by even more forceful goings-on, namely a stationary jet stream lobe (like last year, only to the west).

A-Team,
I like that science is constantly questioning, especially w.r.t. nonstationary situations associated with both climate change superimposed on the chaotic "strange attractor" behavior of the ENSO; which may account for a reasonable number of scientists erring on the side of least drama.  Therefore, when I speculate about problematic future events like the "Pineapple Express" or WWB's (excess speculation in the public media aside); it is helpful to be questioned, as under the scientific method, hopefully we will all learn from such questioning.  Therefore, I offer the following in response to your post:

First, the Western states is a large area, and strong El Ninos primarily impact precipitation in this area from January thru March, so it is valuable to observe the whole season and to compare to the past.  Furthermore, El Nino associated rain/snow has already started in California; which may be stealing much of the rain before it gets to places like Arizona; nevertheless, the following two linked articles and images show that in our current strongest ever recorded El Nino, most of the Western states are receiving a good snowpack (even if places like Tucson is not receiving much rainfall) :

http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/story/30909302/western-snowpack-this-year-compared-to-past-el-nino-events (http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/story/30909302/western-snowpack-this-year-compared-to-past-el-nino-events)

Extract associated with attached images: "We are in the midst of the strongest El Niño ever recorded. Generally, this means a wet winter for the southern tier of the Western states but drier conditions to our north. However, rules are meant to be broken, often proved by nature itself. So far this year, it seems the entire western U.S. is winning out on the snow.
The image [see first attached image] below compares the snowpack from January 1, 2016 to the median snowpack from the 30 years between 1981 and 2010. Basically all the greens, blues, and purples are good news. It means snowpack is right where it should be, or even better, for much of the western U.S.
Snowpack is a critical part of the western water supplies. As snow melts into spring, runoff fills reservoirs that feed our water-thirsty homes, businesses, and farms through the summer and fall. Even the headwaters of the Colorado River in Wyoming, northern Utah, and western Colorado have mostly average or above-average snowpack. This is good news for Arizona since this snowmelt fills Lake Mead, which then feeds our Central Arizona Project (CAP) water canals that end in Tucson.
Compare the above numbers to those of the 1997/98 El Niño below [see second attached image]. This El Niño event was the previous strength record holder. The oranges and reds on the map indicate below average snowpack on January 1, 1998.  You can see conditions were on the dry side for much of the western U.S. The exception is in Arizona and New Mexico. January 1998 was actually a dry month for Tucson, however wet weather hit in February and March."


The Jan 9 2016 snow report from Flagstaff Arizona indicates a good snowpack:

http://azdailysun.com/news/local/the-dangers-of-deep-powder-days/article_c63a2036-50b2-570d-b23a-09c2f3807daf.html (http://azdailysun.com/news/local/the-dangers-of-deep-powder-days/article_c63a2036-50b2-570d-b23a-09c2f3807daf.html)

Second, it is fully possible/probable that climate change may result in an increased frequency/size of a "stationary jet stream lobe" or "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge", making it more complicated to make projections about precipitation events under a strong El Nino.  Which makes it even more important to wait patiently thru the end of March 2016 to gather as any observations as possible about the interactions of complex climate change and complex ENSO behavior.
Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: anthropocene on January 10, 2016, 06:43:25 PM
Question aimed mainly at AbruptSLR because he has mentioned some evidence about this topic (but rather obliquely)  before but anybody else is welcome to comment. In a very simplistic way I see the default position to be that the (Pacific) ocean is absorbing more energy (temperature) as compared to the atmosphere. In El Nino conditions this changes and the main effect is (or main driver?) is that the Pacific ocean transmits energy to the atmosphere. Since with AGW the ocean is absorbing 90% of the additional energy then the differential between the (Pacific) ocean and the atmosphere is increasing (Is this correct?). Since El Nino is a main method for attempting to equalise this imbalance I would expect characteristics of El Nino to change. It seems that there are 3 main ways this could occur: El Ninos become more frequent, El Ninos become longer or El Ninos become stronger. Do the climate models make a prediction about this? To bring the discussion onto topic of this thread: Although this El Nino is a super-strength El Nino it is arguably no stronger than 1998 or 1983. I've seen no evidence that El Ninos are becoming more frequent. This only leaves El Ninos becoming longer: Since 2014 was predictied to be a El Nino year and spent a long time in almost El Nino conditions this would give some evidence that El Ninos are becoming longer. It would also suggest that if there is to be any variance from past behaviour in the latter stages of this El Nino then it will more likely be a lengthening of the transition to neutral conditions. Any thoughts?
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 10, 2016, 06:54:44 PM
Back to the topic of WWBs and MJOs:

The first two images show the U at Albany 5S-5N Wind Anom forecasts from Jan 10 to 17 2016, for the 850-hPa, an the 200-hPa, elevations, respectively.  Collectively, these forecasts are more bullish for El Nino conditions than the forecast that Ventrice (in my view a true MJO expert) made using European Centre input as few days ago.

The last two images show the MJO forecast from Jan 10 to 24 2016, for NOAA's NCPB and for the European Centre's ECMM, respectively.  As the MJO is clearly still in the Eastern Pacific, this means that the NCPB forecast from a few days ago showed more skill than the ECMM forecast.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 10, 2016, 07:00:09 PM
The two attached Nullschool Maps are for Wind and TPW for January 10, 2016 for 850-hPa, and 250-hPa, respectively.  As the position of the MJO is clearly closer to the NCPB MJO forecast, than for the ECMM MJO forecast, in my immediate preceding post, it is reasonable to assume that for the given current circumstances that the NOAA MJO forecast system is showing more skill than the European Centre MJO forecast system:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 10, 2016, 07:46:56 PM
Question aimed mainly at AbruptSLR because he has mentioned some evidence about this topic (but rather obliquely)  before but anybody else is welcome to comment. In a very simplistic way I see the default position to be that the (Pacific) ocean is absorbing more energy (temperature) as compared to the atmosphere. In El Nino conditions this changes and the main effect is (or main driver?) is that the Pacific ocean transmits energy to the atmosphere. Since with AGW the ocean is absorbing 90% of the additional energy then the differential between the (Pacific) ocean and the atmosphere is increasing (Is this correct?). Since El Nino is a main method for attempting to equalise this imbalance I would expect characteristics of El Nino to change. It seems that there are 3 main ways this could occur: El Ninos become more frequent, El Ninos become longer or El Ninos become stronger. Do the climate models make a prediction about this? To bring the discussion onto topic of this thread: Although this El Nino is a super-strength El Nino it is arguably no stronger than 1998 or 1983. I've seen no evidence that El Ninos are becoming more frequent. This only leaves El Ninos becoming longer: Since 2014 was predictied to be a El Nino year and spent a long time in almost El Nino conditions this would give some evidence that El Ninos are becoming longer. It would also suggest that if there is to be any variance from past behaviour in the latter stages of this El Nino then it will more likely be a lengthening of the transition to neutral conditions. Any thoughts?

anthropocene,
I am running out of time to address the questions that you raise, so I point you to the 2015, and 2014, El Nino? threads linked below, and I provide a few selected extracts.
In summary, the question of whether global warming will result in more frequent, and/or stronger, El Ninos, is still under discussion, but I believe that that this discussion is leaning in favor of a "yes" answer.  Observations of the non-proxy record of Super El Ninos is relatively sparse so it is hard to say with certainty, but I lean in favor of erring on the side of human safety and assuming that it is true that global warming will result in both more frequent and larger El Ninos; which by default means that climate sensitivity is higher than the IPCC commonly assumes.  Certainly, if the NDJ, and/or the DJF, ONI index is at, or above, 2.5 for our current 15-16 event, then I would say that this evidence tends to support my position.
Best,
ASLR

For 2015 see:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1064.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1064.0.html)

The following linked reference provides some more insights on the growing ENSO risks with continued global warming; however, it concludes with a call for still further research on this complex matter:

Wenju Cai, Agus Santoso, Guojian Wang, Sang-Wook Yeh, Soon-Il An, Kim M. Cobb, Mat Collins, Eric Guilyardi, Fei-Fei Jin, Jong-Seong Kug, Matthieu Lengaigne, Michael J. McPhaden, Ken Takahashi, Axel Timmermann, Gabriel Vecchi, Masahiro Watanabe & Lixin Wu (2015), "ENSO and greenhouse warming", Nature Climate Change, Volume: 5, Pages: 849–859, doi:10.1038/nclimate2743


http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n9/full/nclimate2743.html (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n9/full/nclimate2743.html)


Abstract: "The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant climate phenomenon affecting extreme weather conditions worldwide. Its response to greenhouse warming has challenged scientists for decades, despite model agreement on projected changes in mean state. Recent studies have provided new insights into the elusive links between changes in ENSO and in the mean state of the Pacific climate. The projected slow-down in Walker circulation is expected to weaken equatorial Pacific Ocean currents, boosting the occurrences of eastward-propagating warm surface anomalies that characterize observed extreme El Niño events. Accelerated equatorial Pacific warming, particularly in the east, is expected to induce extreme rainfall in the eastern equatorial Pacific and extreme equatorward swings of the Pacific convergence zones, both of which are features of extreme El Niño. The frequency of extreme La Niña is also expected to increase in response to more extreme El Niños, an accelerated maritime continent warming and surface-intensified ocean warming. ENSO-related catastrophic weather events are thus likely to occur more frequently with unabated greenhouse-gas emissions. But model biases and recent observed strengthening of the Walker circulation highlight the need for further testing as new models, observations and insights become available."

For 2014 see:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,730.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,730.0.html)

Furthermore, the following linked reference indicates that before 2040 CMIP5 models indicate that the amplitude of the ENSO phases will increase due to global warming:
Seon Tae Kim, Wenju Cai, Fei-Fei Jin, Agus Santoso, Lixin Wu, Eric Guilyardi & Soon-Il An, (2014), "Response of El Niño sea surface temperature variability to greenhouse warming", Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2326


http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2326.html (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2326.html)

Abstract: "The destructive environmental and socio-economic impacts of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) demand an improved understanding of how ENSO will change under future greenhouse warming. Robust projected changes in certain aspects of ENSO have been recently established. However, there is as yet no consensus on the change in the magnitude of the associated sea surface temperature (SST) variability, commonly used to represent ENSO amplitude, despite its strong effects on marine ecosystems and rainfall worldwide. Here we show that the response of ENSO SST amplitude is time-varying, with an increasing trend in ENSO amplitude before 2040, followed by a decreasing trend thereafter. We attribute the previous lack of consensus to an expectation that the trend in ENSO amplitude over the entire twenty-first century is unidirectional, and to unrealistic model dynamics of tropical Pacific SST variability. We examine these complex processes across 22 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) database, forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The nine most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on the time-varying response and reveal that the non-unidirectional behaviour is linked to a longitudinal difference in the surface warming rate across the Indo-Pacific basin. Our results carry important implications for climate projections and climate adaptation pathways."

The following  two abstracts from the 2014 Ocean Sciences Meetings, in February 2014 in Hawaii clearly supports the conclusion that due to global warming we can expect to experience more frequent  strong El Nino events, both now and in the future:


"MORE FREQUENT EMERGENCE OF EL NIÑO PROPAGATION ASYMMETRY DUE TO GREENHOUSE WARMING

Sea surface temperature anomalies typically propagate westward along the equatorial Pacific during both El Niño and La Niña events. Since the late 1970’s however, an opposite propagation has been observed, most prominently during extreme El Niño events. This propagation asymmetry challenges existing theories on how ENSO works. Through heat budget analysis utilising various observational data assimilation systems, the equatorial Pacific currents are found to be an important element for this asymmetry, whereby the westward flowing currents are enhanced during La Niña but reversed during extreme El Niño events. Our results highlight that propagation asymmetry is favoured when the westward mean currents weaken. By analysing climate models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 5, it is found that as the mean currents weaken under global warming, an aggregate of models with more realistic propagation behaviour indeed simulate a doubling in the frequency of eastward propagating El Niños. Our results have implications for understanding ENSO behaviour across models, and suggest that more frequent emergence of eastward El Niño will be a symptom of a warming climate."


Authors
Santoso, A., University of New South Wales, Australia, a.santoso@unsw.edu.au

McGregor, S., University of New South Wales, Australia, shayne.mcgregor@unsw.edu.au

Jin, F. F., University of Hawaii, USA, jff@hawaii.edu

Cai, W., CSIRO, Australia, wenju.cai@csiro.au

England, M. H., University of New South Wales, Australia, m.england@unsw.edu.au

"INFERRED CHANGES IN EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION VARIANCE OVER THE PAST SIX CENTURIES

It is vital to understand how the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has responded to past changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings, in order to better understand and predict its response to future greenhouse warming. To date, however, the instrumental record is too brief to fully characterize natural ENSO variability, while large discrepancies exist amongst paleo-proxy reconstructions of ENSO. These paleo-proxy reconstructions have typically attempted to reconstruct ENSO’s temporal evolution, rather than the variance of these temporal changes. Here a new approach is developed that synthesizes the variance changes from various proxy datasets to provide a unified and updated estimate of past ENSO variance. The method is tested using surrogate data from two coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations. It is shown that in the presence of dating uncertainties, synthesizing variance information provides a more robust estimate of ENSO variance than synthesizing the raw data and then identifying its running variance. Synthesizing existing ENSO reconstructions to arrive at a better estimate of past ENSO variance changes, we find robust evidence that the ENSO variance for any 30-year period during the interval 1590-1880 was considerably lower than that observed during 1979-2009."


Authors
McGregor, S., Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW, Australia, shayne.mcgregor@unsw.edu.au

Timmermann, A., IPRC, University of Hawaii, USA, axel@hawaii.edu

England, M. H., Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW, Australia, m.england@unsw.edu.au

Elison Timm, O., University at Albany, State University of New York, USA, oelisontimm@albany.edu

Wittenberg, A. T., GFDL, NOAA, USA, andrew.wittenberg@noaa.go

The linked reference indicates that following a RCP 8.5 scenario will result in a tripling of the frequency of extreme positive IOP events, indicates that extreme El Nino events will also become more frequent in the future:

Wenju Cai, Agus Santoso, Guojian Wang, Evan Weller, Lixin Wu, Karumuri Ashok, Yukio Masumoto & Toshio Yamagata, (2014), "Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events due to greenhouse warming", Nature, 510,254–258, doi:10.1038/nature13327


http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v510/n7504/full/nature13327.html (http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v510/n7504/full/nature13327.html)

Abstract: "The Indian Ocean dipole is a prominent mode of coupled ocean–atmosphere variability, affecting the lives of millions of people in Indian Ocean rim countries. In its positive phase, sea surface temperatures are lower than normal off the Sumatra–Java coast, but higher in the western tropical Indian Ocean. During the extreme positive-IOD (pIOD) events of 1961, 1994 and 1997, the eastern cooling strengthened and extended westward along the equatorial Indian Ocean through strong reversal of both the mean westerly winds and the associated eastward-flowing upper ocean currents. This created anomalously dry conditions from the eastern to the central Indian Ocean along the Equator and atmospheric convergence farther west, leading to catastrophic floods in eastern tropical African countries but devastating droughts in eastern Indian Ocean rim countries. Despite these serious consequences, the response of pIOD events to greenhouse warming is unknown. Here, using an ensemble of climate models forced by a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), we project that the frequency of extreme pIOD events will increase by almost a factor of three, from one event every 17.3 years over the twentieth century to one event every 6.3 years over the twenty-first century. We find that a mean state change—with weakening of both equatorial westerly winds and eastward oceanic currents in association with a faster warming in the western than the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean—facilitates more frequent occurrences of wind and oceanic current reversal. This leads to more frequent extreme pIOD events, suggesting an increasing frequency of extreme climate and weather events in regions affected by the pIOD."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 11, 2016, 02:20:22 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -11.3:

20151211,20160109,-11.3


Edit: Here is the associated plot
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 11, 2016, 04:33:42 PM
Per NOAA for the week centered on Jan 6 2016 the Nino 3.4 dropped down to 2.6, while the following table compares 1997-98 Nino values to corresponding weeks in 2015-16:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 05NOV1997     25.0 3.7     28.4 3.4     29.2 2.6     29.2 0.6
 12NOV1997     25.8 4.3     28.5 3.6     29.3 2.7     29.5 0.8
 19NOV1997     25.8 4.1     28.6 3.6     29.3 2.7     29.7 1.1
 26NOV1997     25.9 3.9     28.7 3.7     29.4 2.8     29.7 1.1
 03DEC1997     26.2 3.9     28.6 3.6     29.2 2.6     29.4 0.9
 10DEC1997     26.7 4.2     28.7 3.6     29.2 2.7     29.4 0.9
 17DEC1997     27.0 4.1     28.8 3.6     29.3 2.7     29.3 0.8
 24DEC1997     27.2 4.0     28.8 3.5     29.3 2.7     29.3 0.9
 31DEC1997     27.7 4.1     28.9 3.5     29.2 2.7     29.2 0.8
 07JAN1998     28.0 4.0     28.9 3.4     29.2 2.6     29.1 0.8


 
 04NOV2015     23.4 2.1     27.8 2.8     29.5 2.8     30.3 1.7
 11NOV2015     23.5 2.0     27.9 3.0     29.7 3.0     30.3 1.7
 18NOV2015     23.8 2.1     28.0 3.0     29.7 3.1     30.4 1.8
 25NOV2015     24.4 2.4     28.0 3.0     29.6 3.0     30.3 1.8
 02DEC2015     24.7 2.4     27.9 2.9     29.5 2.9     30.2 1.7
 09DEC2015     24.8 2.3     28.0 2.9     29.4 2.8     30.2 1.7
 16DEC2015     25.2 2.4     28.0 2.9     29.5 2.9     30.2 1.7
 23DEC2015     25.2 2.1     28.0 2.7     29.3 2.7     30.0 1.6
 30DEC2015     25.2 1.6     28.0 2.6     29.3 2.7     29.9 1.5
 06JAN2016     25.7 1.8     28.1 2.7     29.1 2.6     29.7 1.4

All of the attached plots were issued by NOAA on Jan 11 2016 through the week centered on Jan 6 2016.  The first plot shows the Eq Pac SSTA evolution, the second shows the past four weeks of Eq Pac SSTA plots, the third shows the Eq Pac Upper-Ocean Heat Anom, and the fourth shows the Eq Pac Upper-Ocean Heat Anom Evolution.  All of these plot indicate that the current upwelling phase of the EKW is about to end and we will soon see whether the current WWB activity is strong enough to trigger a new downwelling phase of the EKW.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 11, 2016, 04:48:46 PM
The four attached plot were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending Jan 10 2016, showing that the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, are all down, which is characteristic of a trough in the EKW activity as the current upwelling phase is bottoming out.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 11, 2016, 04:54:42 PM
The first two images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Jan 10, 2016 with the first plot showing that the Nino 3.4 has dropped down to +2.16, and the second showing that the IOD may have bottomed-out and might (or might not) rebound upward from its neutral condition.

The last two images show that the NCPB, and the ECMM, MJO forecasts, respectively, continue to converge towards each other, with the NCPB showing that the MJO should not return to the Dateline next week but rather may return to the far Eastern portion of the Equatorial Pacific.  Thus the NCPB is less bullish than last week but continues to be more bullish than the ECMM.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 11, 2016, 05:03:50 PM
The first two images were issued today by the U at Albany showing the 5S-5N Wind Anom forecasts from Jan 11 to 18 2016 for the 850-hPa, and 200-hPa, elevations, respectively.  These forecasts show the level of the currently strong WWB decreasing to moderate from the beginning to the end of the forecast period.

The third image shows the Earth 850-hPa Wind & TPW Map for Jan 11 2016, showing that the WWB is currently strong, that the MJO is were NOAA predicted that it would be, and that the Asian Jetstream continues to convey steady waves of moderate storms to the US West Coast.

The last image shows the BoM Dateline cloud cover circa Jan 11 2016, indicating that the cloud cover is decreasing as the MJO shifts Eastward, but that there are still above average cloud cover for this time of year.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 11, 2016, 05:46:00 PM
The linked reference discusses a decadally-delayed response of the ENSO to the AMO variability.  Note that the AMO is currently entering a cooling phase and that per this research this implies that about 30-years from now (circa 2045) the ENSO will be entering a warming phase, perhaps stronger than our current phase of positive PDO behavior:

Davide Zanchettin, Oliver Bothe, Hans F. Graf, Nour-Eddine Omrani, Angelo Rubino & Johann H. Jungclaus (2016), "A decadally-delayed response of the tropical Pacific to Atlantic multidecadal variability", Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067284

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL067284/abstract (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL067284/abstract)

Abstract: "North Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies are known to affect tropical Pacific climate variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through thermocline adjustment in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Here, coupled climate simulations featuring repeated idealized cycles of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) generated by nudging its tropical branch demonstrate that the tropical Pacific response to the AMO also entails a substantial decadally-delayed component. The simulations robustly show multidecadal fluctuations in central equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures lagging the AMO by about three decades and a sub-decadal cold-to-warm transition of the tropical Pacific mean state during the AMO's cooling phase. The interplay between out-of-phase responses of seawater temperature and salinity in the western Pacific and associated density anomalies in local thermocline waters emerge as crucial factors of remotely-driven multidecadal variations of the equatorial Pacific climate. The delayed AMO influences on tropical Pacific dynamics could help understanding past and future ENSO variability."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 11, 2016, 10:29:07 PM

The following link leads to NOAA's weekly MJO update issued January 11, 2016.  The extract, and first attached image (showing the evolution of the 200-hPa wind potential), indicates that for at least another week the MJO will work constructively with the current El Nino:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf)

Extract: "The MJO remained active during the past week, with the enhanced phase now over the east-central Pacific.
Dynamical model forecasts of the MJO index generally support a continued eastward propagation of the MJO signal, although there is considerable spread among the guidance and the forcing mechanisms by which the models continue the signal is unclear.
The MJO is likely to continue to constructively interfere with the ongoing El Nino for at least the first week of the outlook period. Week-2 has high uncertainty with some models completely eliminating any MJO signal.
The MJO is likely to continue playing a role in the pattern of anomalous convection along with the ongoing El Nino."

The second, image shows the Earth 250-hPa Wind & TPW Map for Jan 11, 2016; indicating that the MJO may not be as far east as either the NCPB, or the ECMM, forecast for Jan 11.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 12, 2016, 02:26:25 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average has drifted down to -11.4:

20151212,20160110,-11.4

Edit: Here is the plot
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 12, 2016, 04:51:04 PM
The linked Climate Central article indicate NOAA's forecast of increased precipitation (see attachment) during the 15-16 Winter months, due to the current Super El Nino:

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/el-nino-peaks-but-impacts-to-come-19900 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/el-nino-peaks-but-impacts-to-come-19900)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 12, 2016, 04:57:47 PM
The first two images show the U at Albany's 5S-5N Wind Anom forecast from Jan 12 to 19 2016 for altitudes of 850-hPa and 200-hPa, respectively.  These projections are relatively close to Ventrice's projections from last week, but are slightly more bullish for El Nino support.

The last two images show the Nullschool Wind & TPW Maps at 850-hPa, and 250-hPa, respectively.  These closely match the UatA forecast, supporting the idea that the MJO has now left the Eastern Pacific and the associated WWB is beginning to decline.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 12, 2016, 05:20:13 PM
As the ECMM MJO forecast has not been updated, I provide NOAA's GFS Ensemble (NCPB) MJO forecast from Jan 12 to 26 2016.  This plot shows that yesterday the MJO was still in the far Eastern Pacific, but today should be over Africa.  This indicates to me that the most skillful forecast for the MJO last week would have been to split the difference between NOAA's (more bullish) and the European Centre's (more bearish) forecasts, as the MJO remained in the Pacific longer than the EC forecast but the MJO never looped back to the Dateline as NOAA forecast.  So we are left with a strong (but not overwhelmingly strong) WWB; which might (or might not) trigger a new downwelling phase of the EKW (note that the SOI currently is in the El Nino range and the MJO is rapidly declining in magnitude as it leaves the Pacific, so the MJO should not be a significant destructive factor for continuingly negative SOI values).

Edit: Here is the ECMM MJO forecast from Jan 12 to 26 2016
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 12, 2016, 06:34:13 PM
Who knows, with the potentially disruptive MJO (in the Indian Ocean) near zero by January 16  2016 (per both the NCPB & the ECMM), maybe the local conditions near the Dateline will support El Nino conditions as indicated by the attached Earth 850-hPa & MSLP forecast for Jan 16th.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on January 12, 2016, 07:31:47 PM
This indicates to me that the most skillful forecast for the MJO last week would have been to split the difference between NOAA's (more bullish) and the European Centre's (more bearish) forecasts, as the MJO remained in the Pacific longer than the EC forecast but the MJO never looped back to the Dateline as NOAA forecast. 

It looks like the ECMF product (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml) performed best.  Note that this is slightly different from the ECMM product (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml) that you are using.

The image below shows the ECMF MJO forecast that was issued on 30 December (left), 5 January (middle), and 12 January (right), respectively.  Clearly, this forecast performed very well during the last few weeks:


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FRCFsV0h.png&hash=aef417a95775743d7deae20ee3c5be10)

(See here (http://i.imgur.com/RCFsV0h.png) for larger version of the image.) 


The link below shows an animation of how these ECMF MJO forecasts changed during the last 7 days (see date label at the top of each image of the animation):

http://i.imgur.com/Ewywpon.gif (http://i.imgur.com/Ewywpon.gif)


Finally, the link below shows a similar animation for NCEP's MJO forecast (more precisely, the NCPB product, which uses bias-corrected output of GFS model), which clearly performed poorly:

http://i.imgur.com/zgLpZ4n.gif (http://i.imgur.com/zgLpZ4n.gif)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 12, 2016, 11:15:53 PM
I thought that the linked University of Washington article had some very interesting things to say about the impact of the Godzilla El Nino on West Coast weather, on its interaction with remnants of the Blob, and impacts on future PDO values:

http://www.washington.edu/news/2016/01/11/northwest-winter-weather-el-nino-coastal-effects-no-more-blob/ (http://www.washington.edu/news/2016/01/11/northwest-winter-weather-el-nino-coastal-effects-no-more-blob/)

Extract: "What some have called the “Godzilla El Niño” is now lumbering ashore, right on schedule. El Niño tends to influence North American weather after the first of January, and indeed, we’re seeing warm temperatures in Alaska and much-needed rain in California.



The West Coast effects of El Niño tend to peak in January and February and continue to be felt through March. But the Godzilla El Niño in the tropical Pacific doesn’t necessarily mean we need to brace for monster-sized effects in this region.
“There’s not a strict relationship between the magnitude of the El Niño and the magnitude of the response at the higher latitudes,” Bond said. “Sometimes more moderate El Niños seem to have a really big response, and other times the strong ones have a more moderate response. It’s not a one-to-one relationship.”
So far, this El Niño is shaping up to be a textbook event, said Cliff Mass, a UW professor of atmospheric sciences who has covered the topic on his blog.
“It’s been following the typical route for a strong El Niño,” Mass said. “Typically, even a strong El Niño doesn’t have a lot of implications for this region in the early winter, but after the first of the year the teleconnections develop and the jet stream splits to bring rainstorms to California and Alaska, with Washington right in the middle,” he said.
“This El Niño is following the typical game plan, particularly the increasing effects after the new year.”
Observations show this El Niño is already weakening in the tropics, Mass said, and models suggest a neutral situation by the middle of summer, and either neutral or the opposing La Niña phase by next winter.


El Niño’s effects on the ocean will largely replace the phenomenon known as “the blob,” the unusually warm patch in the northern Pacific that influenced coastal weather and marine ecosystems in 2014 and 2015.
That pattern – which included ocean temperatures of up to 7 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than usual – continues to be a subject of scientific study. A workshop at the UW Jan. 20 and 21 will review the unusual pattern of the blob, its effects, whether this event could have been forecast, and also consider how any remnants may be interacting with El Niño.
Although the warm-water blob is now mostly history, climate models project that the coastal winds will be more from the south than usual, resulting in a strip of relatively warm water along the West Coast this spring, Bond said. This phenomenon is related to yet another climate cycle known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
“All the models are showing that to be the case, but to varying extent. It looks like it will be warm enough along the coast to have some significant effects,” Bond said. “People are keeping an eye on that, because the ocean has [already] been warm for a couple of years. If that continues, it’s going to have implications for the marine ecosystem.”"
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 13, 2016, 12:15:37 AM
Per the first two attached NOAA images of the Eq Pac Subsurface Profile for Jan 8, 2016, for the Temperature Anom, and the Temperature, respectively; it looks like the upwelling phase has ended (note the deep tough of cool water is breaking up).  This impression is supported by the third NOAA image of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom circa Jan 11 2016; which shows the Heat Anom is now increasing (presumably as another downwelling phase moves eastward due to the current WWB).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 13, 2016, 03:29:35 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -12.1:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: gregb on January 13, 2016, 10:45:31 AM
With regards to the earlier posts, what appears to be the start of a new downwelling phase can also be seen on the TAO sensor array sectional (contours). The TOA data pentad leads the pentad analysis that appears on the NOAA page by a couple of days. It shows that the cold water has been pinched off and warmer water now reaches some depth. One had to think that the extended WWB of the last week or so would produce some sort of response even though the warm pool in the kelvin wave generation area has largely been displaced by the current El Nino event. It looks as though it has.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 13, 2016, 04:22:53 PM
While it does appear that the ECMF has better long-term MJO forecasts (partly because this raw dynamic forecast is not corrected for stationary climatology conditions that are likely out of date due to non-stationary global warming), it is not posted until later in the day and I still trust NOAA's GFS Ensemble MJO forecast over the 1 to 3-day range, so the first attached forecast indicates that the MJO should be destructive to El Nino conditions until the 15th and then should be neutral.

The second & third images show the U at Albany 5S-5N Wind Anom forecast from Jan 13 to 20 2016, for the 850-hPa, and 200-hPa, elevations, respectively, showing the WWB decreasing first rapidly and then slowly, in that timeframe.

The fourth image shows the Earth 850-hPa Wind & TPW forecast for Jan 17 2016, showing: (a) rain to hit California, (b) moderate to weak westerly wind near the Dateline, and (c) weak SPCZ activity.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 13, 2016, 05:44:46 PM
I tend to resist talking about daily Nino indices, but as the four attached Tropical Tidbits plots or the Nino 1&2, 3, 3.4 and 4 indices, respectively, thru Jan 13 2016, show an emerging pattern of the reflection of the old downwelling phase off the coast of Ecuador, causing the 1&2, the 3 (note the current +2.822 daily value) and the 3.4 (note the current +2.341 daily value) indices to begin to increase, plus the Nino 4 index cooling as it pulls in relatively cool surface water from the somewhat depleted Western Warm Water pool as the current WWB send a new downwelling pulse (see the pulse of deep warm water near the Dateline shown by gregb) eastward from the Dateline.  If this assessment is correct we should see a secondary peak in the weekly Nino 3.4 index in about two to four weeks time.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 13, 2016, 06:34:05 PM
For what it is worth, the latest (blue) members of the NOAA CFSv2 Nino 3.4 uncorrected forecast shows an increase in this index resulting in a secondary peak in two to four weeks (supporting the Tropical Tidbits pattern); however, I do realize that such member forecasts are subject to change.

The second plot shows the ECMF MJO forecast from Jan 13 to 27 2016, showing a similar pattern as the NOAA forecast through Jan 15 (at least).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 13, 2016, 10:08:26 PM
The three attached NASA Sea Level residual plots, from the Jason -2 Satellite, for Nov 18, Dec 3 and Dec 27, 2015, respectively, indicate the size of our current El Nino event and where the ocean heat content is located.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 14, 2016, 01:10:57 AM
Cat 1 Hurricane Pali is projected to weaken as it moves southwest toward the Equatorial International Dateline:

http://phys.org/news/2016-01-nasa-hurricane-pali-rainfall.html (http://phys.org/news/2016-01-nasa-hurricane-pali-rainfall.html)

On Jan. 13 at 10 a.m. EST (5 a.m. HST/1500 UTC) NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) reported the center of Hurricane Pali was located near latitude 4.2 north and longitude 171.8 west. That's about 875 miles (1,410 km) south of Johnston Island and 1,505 miles (2,420 km) southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 kph) and weakening is forecast over the next couple of days. Pali's hurricane force winds were concentrated and extended outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).

Pali was moving toward the south-southwest near 8 mph (13 kph) and a turn toward the southwest later today will be followed by a turn toward the west by Friday, Jan. 15. For updated forecasts, visit NOAA's CPHC:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/ (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/)

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 14, 2016, 01:18:29 AM
Per Wunderground the first attached image is the storm track for Hurricane Pali as of 4pm Eastern Time Jan 13 2016, which is slightly more bullish that what the Nullschool Map is indicating (as it is shown on a more northerly track than the Nullschool Map is showing).  This could be an interesting storm to watch

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/central-pacific/2016/hurricane-Pali (http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/central-pacific/2016/hurricane-Pali)


See also the second attached image of model projections from:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/central-pacific/2016/hurricane-Pali?map=model (http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/central-pacific/2016/hurricane-Pali?map=model)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 14, 2016, 02:43:04 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued dropping to -12.7:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 14, 2016, 04:08:03 PM
The first plot shows NOAA's GFS Ensemble (NCPB) MJO forecast from Jan 14 to 28, 2016; which indicates that the MJO on Jan 13 was stronger than that forecast by the ECMF and relatively close to that forecast by NOAA.  As this somewhat strong MJO is destructive to El Nino conditions, this helps to explain how abruptly the WWB has weakened as indicated by the second plot by the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Jan 14 to 21 2016, and also helps to explain why Hurricane Pali has now been downgraded to Tropical Depression Pali (see the third image of the Earth 850-hPa Wind & TPW Map for Jan 14 2016), but it is projected to stay north of the equator (see the fourth image of the modeled storm tracks forecast on Jan 14 2016):

Extract: "Tropical Depression Pali
Last Updated: ‎1‎/‎14‎/‎2016, ‎7‎:‎00‎:‎00‎ ‎AM (Pacific Standard Time)
•   Location: 2.5N 173.0W
•   Movement: SW at 5 mph
•   Wind: 35 MPH
•   Pressure: 1003 MB"

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Tor Bejnar on January 14, 2016, 04:10:15 PM
Hurricane Alex in the Atlantic may be considered to be part of the 'aftermath' of the waning(?) El Niño. (That, and a product of global warming.)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 14, 2016, 06:59:58 PM
The linked article references research by Matthew Widlansky and Axel Timmermann at the International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, and their colleague Wenju Cai at CSIRO in Australia, that indicate that local sea level fluctuations associated with the ENSO cycle will likely double the associated frequency of extreme local sea level events  (particularly in the Southwestern Pacific, near Australia) by 2100:


http://phys.org/news/2015-09-extreme-pacific-sea-events-future.html (http://phys.org/news/2015-09-extreme-pacific-sea-events-future.html)

Extract: "During El Niño, warm water and high sea levels shift eastward, leaving in their wake low sea levels in the western Pacific. Scientists have already shown that this east-west seesaw is often followed six months to a year later by a similar north-south sea level seesaw with water levels dropping by up to one foot (30 cm) in the Southern Hemisphere. Such sea level drops expose shallow marine ecosystems in South Pacific Islands, causing massive coral die-offs with a foul smelling tide called taimasa (pronounced [kai' ma'sa]) by Samoans.
The team of scientists recently asked, how will future greenhouse warming affect the El Niño sea level seesaws? The scientist used state-of-the-art climate models, which accounted for increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, together with simulations of the observed climate and tide-gauge records to verify the model results. They determined that projected climate change will enhance El Niño-related sea level extremes. By the end of this century the experiments show that the intensified wind impacts of strong El Niño and La Niña events are likely to double the frequency of extreme sea level occurrences, especially in the tropical southwestern Pacific."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 14, 2016, 07:06:23 PM
Per the linked Wunderground article, Tropical Depression Pali should be history in a few hours as it has moved too close to the equator which limits the ability of the Coriolis force to give it spin:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/alex-becomes-the-atlantics-first-january-hurricane-since-1955 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/alex-becomes-the-atlantics-first-january-hurricane-since-1955)

Extract: "Hurricane Pali weakens to a tropical depression near equator
Late Wednesday was the first time in the modern era of tropical cyclone observing and prediction that we had simultaneous named systems in the Atlantic (Alex) and Central Pacific (Pali)--or, for that matter, anywhere in the Pacific. Pali is the earliest named storm and earliest hurricane on record between the International Date Line and the Americas. It reached Category 2 strength (85 knots or 100 mph) on Tuesday. While Alex was strengthening into a hurricane on Wednesday night, Pali was falling apart. By Thursday morning, Pali had decayed into Tropical Depression Pali, located at 173.0°W and just 2.5°N. Now experiencing moderate to strong wind shear, Pali should be history within the next few hours. Very few tropical cyclones have made it as close to the equator as Pali, since they normally rely on the Corilis force (which is stronger at higher latitudes) to give them a cyclonic spin. Only two other tropical cyclones have been known to make it within 2° latitude of the equator. When it formed south of 5°N latitude on January 7, Pali became the first tropical cyclone known to have existed in any of the equatorial regions used to monitor El Niño sea-surface conditions."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 14, 2016, 10:55:19 PM
Per NOAA's ENSO Blog post by Emily Becker on Jan 14 2016, the January El Nino has a lot going on!

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/january-el-ni%C3%B1o-update-it%E2%80%99s-got-lot-going (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/january-el-ni%C3%B1o-update-it%E2%80%99s-got-lot-going)

Extract: "El Niño is ultimately measured on seasonal timescales, though, so the average of the sea surface temperature anomaly (departure from the long-term average) over three months is what we really pay attention to. In October–December 2015, the Oceanic Niño Index was 2.25°C, tied with the same period in 1997.

Whenever the MJO acts up during an El Niño event – like now - there is a tendency to say that the MJO is making the El Niño stronger, or even causing it to exist in the first place. A recent article about the MJO in Science started off by claiming that a clutch of MJO events last March caused the onset of the current strong [El Niño] event.
There’s a clear logic to this: westerly surface winds on the equator are a critical part of El Niño, and the active phase of the MJO brings those. And whereas the MJO’s clouds, rain, and surface westerlies normally tend to fizzle when the active phase reaches the Central Pacific, during El Niño, the warmer waters near and east of the dateline allow the MJO to hold itself together longer. This allows the MJO’s westerlies to reinforce surface warming.
But the MJO is, like its name says, an oscillation. The westerly anomalies are followed quickly by easterly ones, so that the average effect might be very little over the longer time scale of ENSO. And we know there would be central and eastern Pacific westerlies during El Niño even without the MJO. Westerlies have been present for the past several months, but for much of that time there has been no sign of the eastward propagation that is the MJO’s trademark.
Clearly, the question of how the MJO and El Niño act to reinforce or weaken each other is still up for debate.

In with the new

Regardless of the cause, there was a very strong westerly wind burst near the Date line early this month. Often, but not always, these wind bursts kick off downwelling Kelvin waves, sending an area of warmer subsurface waters eastward. We’ll have to wait to see if this develops to know what impact it could have on slowing the decay of El Niño through the spring."

Edit: The attached plot of NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom circa Jan 14 2016 provides a little bit more of an indication that the recent WWB has triggered a downwelling Kelvin wave of some unknown magnitude.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 15, 2016, 02:43:21 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -12.8:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on January 15, 2016, 06:06:03 AM
There are certainly a lot of people around the planet holding their breath now. Here's the rainfall forecast from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, in pictures.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 15, 2016, 04:26:23 PM
The first & second plots show the U at Albany 5S-5N Wind Anom forecasts from Jan 15 to 22 2016, for 850-hPa, and 200-hPa, respectively.  They both show weakly favorable (weak WWB) El Nino conditions from Jan 15 to 20, and then they indicate the possibility that these weakly favorable conditions may become moderately favorable.

The third plot shows NOAA's GFS Ensemble (NCPB) MJO forecast from Jan 15 to 29 2016, indicating that the MJO will be destructive to El Nino conditions until after Jan 16 and then will be neutral.

The fourth image shows the WunderMap projection near the Equatorial Dateline for Jan 23 2016 showing a possible moderately-strong WWB (cyclone northwest of the Eq. Dateline) activity.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: deep octopus on January 15, 2016, 05:27:44 PM
Tropical Tidbits is showing a moderate rebound to the Niño 3.4 index over recent days, I guess partially a result of the stronger lower level westerlies. We will see if this manifests as a rebound in the NOAA figures as well.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 15, 2016, 07:00:36 PM
Per the first attached image of the ECMF MJO forecast for Jan 15 to 29 2016, the MJO is already in the neutral area (today).

The second image shows the Earth 850-hPa Wind & TPW Map for Jan 15 2016 showing the remnants of Tropical Depression Pali & reasonably high WWB activity.

The third image show the Earth 850-hPa Wind & TCW forecast for Jan 19 2016 showing reduced WWB activity but increasing cloud activity.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 16, 2016, 02:09:39 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to
-13.5:

20151216,20160114,-13.5



Edit: Here is the plot
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 16, 2016, 04:10:11 PM
The first two images show the U at Albany 5S-5N Wind Anom forecast fro Jan 16 to 23 2016 at 850-hPa and 200-hPa, respectively.  This images indicate that by around Jan 21/22 2016 the Walker Cell may be reorganizing itself into a configuration favorable for El Nino strengthening.

The third image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom through about Jan 16 2016, showing a rapid increase in heat content, strongly indicating that another downwelling plus of the EKW is headed eastward across the Eq Pac.

The fourth image shows NOAA's CFSv2 uncorrected Nino 3.4 forecast issued Jan 16 2016; with the new ensemble members indicating a sharp increasing in the Nino 3.4 index around the end of Jan to beginning of Feb 2016 that may come somewhat close to the 2015 high.

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 16, 2016, 04:17:06 PM
The four attached images were all created from the Nullschool Earth system today showing Wind and MSLP forecasts.  The first two images so the 850-hPa, and the 250-hPa, conditions respectively for Jan 16 2016; while the last two images show the 850-hPa and the 250-hPa, conditions respectively for Jan 20 2016.  These images show a gradual weakening of the recent WWB, and a gradual reconfiguration of the Walker Cell into a pattern more conducive for favorable El Nino reinforcement.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 16, 2016, 04:27:12 PM
The first three images are from Tropical Tidbits, with the first image showing the change in SSTA for the last 7-days.  To me this first image shows that the old downwelling plus of the EKW has fully reflected off of South America and so temperatures in the Nino 1&2 range are dropping, and that as the current westerly winds are concentrated south of the equator (see the immediate past post) the Nino 4 is cooling north of the equator and warming to the south of the equator as the WWB activity pushes another downwelling plus eastward from the Dateline.  The second and third images show the daily Nino 3 and 3.4 indices, respectively, both showing rapid rates of increase as warm water flows into the two regions from both the east and the west.

The fourth image shows the NOAA GFS Ensemble (NCPB) MJO forecast from Jan 16 to 30 2016, showing that the one-day skill level of the NCPB was higher than that for the ECMF as the MJO remained destructive to El Nino conditions yesterday, but should drop to being neutral today.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on January 16, 2016, 09:02:48 PM
What I find interesting is that our El Nino now is more and more taking the shape of a full blown canonical El Nino compared to what we saw by fall and December. Another thing that I'm thinking of is the recent values from the Nino 3-area which to my old eyes are the highest so far during this event. How big were the highest anomalies in this area during 1997-1998?

By tomorrow sunday we should see how much effect the recent extremely strong WWB have had on the subsurface anomalies!

One thing that strikes me is the long build up of this event. As we now see a restrengthening one may wonder if the eventusl transition to La Nina will be slower than earlier events. A scenario like 1982-1985 is possible.

In 1998 the melt onset in the Arctic was early while the melt offset was late. At least according to DMI. Just something to watch this year...

Finally, the PDO went up to +1,01 in December according to JISAO.

Best, LMV
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: gregb on January 16, 2016, 10:01:31 PM
By tomorrow sunday we should see how much effect the recent extremely strong WWB have had on the subsurface anomalies!

No need to wait. Rapidly rising temperatures have been evident on the TAO bouy strings over the last week:http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/plots/gif/Dep_Sec_EQ_5d.gif (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/plots/gif/Dep_Sec_EQ_5d.gif)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 17, 2016, 02:19:33 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -14.6:

20151217,20160115,-14.6

Edit: Here is the plot
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 17, 2016, 06:03:36 PM
The first image shows the ECMF MJO forecast from Jan 17 to 31 2016, indicating that through Jan 24 the MJO should be neutral, and from Jan 25 to 31 may (or may not) be slightly destructive to El Nino reinforcing conditions.

The second & third images support this forecast & show the U at Albany 5S-5N Wind Anom forecast from Jan 17 to 24 2016 for the 850-hPa, and 200-hPa, cases respectively.  These plots indicate that for the period of the forecast the Walker Cell will be configured to support El Nino reinforcing conditions.

The fourth image shows the BoM Eq Dateline Cloud Cover through about Jan 17 2016 indicating that cloud cover is now increasing at the Eq Dateline, which indicates that the Walker Cell likely is supporting El Nino reinforcing atmospheric conditions.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 17, 2016, 06:10:07 PM
The first three images are from NOAA, with the first two showing Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom, and Temp Profile, respectively, for Jan 13 2016, and the third showing the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom thru about Jan 17 2016.  All of these plots show that a new downwelling phase of the EKW has now strengthening.

The fourth image show the CC-Reanalyzer 5-day Temp Anom forecast for the Southern Hemisphere issued Jan 17 2016.  This plot shows anomalously high surface temperatures across the hemisphere, supporting the idea that the current El Nino will remain relatively strong (with strong teleconnection of atmospheric energy to the Southern Hemisphere) during this period.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 17, 2016, 06:16:21 PM
While I generally prefer posting weekly, monthly, or three-month averages of Nino indices; nevertheless, I provide the four attached daily Nino indices for the Tropical Tidbits Nino 1&2, 3, 3.4 and 4, indices respectively, for Jan 17 2016, all of which support the idea that another downwelling phase of the EKW is underway and that a secondary peak for the key Nino 3.4 index is likely to occur in late Jan/early Feb 2016 (as currently forecast by the CFSv2)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 17, 2016, 06:19:46 PM
The two attached images are from the Nullschool forecast for Jan 21 2016 for the Earth 850-hPa Wind & TPW; and the Earth 250-hPa Wind & MSLP, conditions respectively.  These plots support the idea that by this date the Walker Cell will be configured into a pattern supporting El Nino reinforcement.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 17, 2016, 06:36:04 PM
Attached is the TAO plots through Jan 17 2016 of the 2S-2N 5-day average values for the Zonal Wind Anom and the Ocean Heat Content Anom.  These show that another downwelling phase of the EKW has indeed begun & was likely triggered by the recent WWB.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 18, 2016, 02:24:51 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped sharply down to -15.7:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Pmt111500 on January 18, 2016, 06:38:24 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped sharply down to -15.7:

Ah, so there might be life to the +++ENSO after all still.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 18, 2016, 12:03:13 PM
The two attached images are from the Nullschool forecast for Jan 22 2016, for 850-hPa & TCW, and for 250-hPa & TPW, respectively.  These images show: (a) suppressed trade winds; (b) extensive cloud cover around the Eq Dateline; (c) A Walker Cell that is moderately configured to support El Nino reinforcement & (d) a SPCZ that is re-establishing itself.  All of these observations indicate that the current Super El Nino will degrade more slowly than previously forecast.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on January 18, 2016, 01:43:00 PM
An animation of the uncorrected forecasts for Nino34, earlier posted in this thread. December 30, January 9 and todays forecast, January 18. Had to stretch the middle picture to fit the others due to lower resolution. Click to animate.

Also attaching the Nino4 plume from ECMWF.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: deep octopus on January 18, 2016, 03:30:51 PM
NOAA reports that the Niño 3.4 region held at +2.6 C during the week centered on January 13th. Niño 3 rebounded to +2.8 C, the strongest anomaly since mid-December. The Niño 1+2 regions cooled to +1.4 C and Niño 4 slid to +1.3 C.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 09DEC2015     24.8 2.3     28.0 2.9     29.4 2.8     30.2 1.7
 16DEC2015     25.2 2.4     28.0 2.9     29.5 2.9     30.2 1.7
 23DEC2015     25.2 2.1     28.0 2.7     29.3 2.7     30.0 1.6
 30DEC2015     25.2 1.6     28.0 2.6     29.3 2.7     29.9 1.5
 06JAN2016     25.7 1.8     28.1 2.7     29.1 2.6     29.7 1.4
 13JAN2016     25.7 1.4     28.3 2.8     29.2 2.6     29.6 1.3

Attached is the SST anomaly chart by OSPO for January 18th.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 18, 2016, 05:54:13 PM
To follow-up on DO's post, we should remember that per the daily Tropical Tidbit plots that the Nino 3.4 index did not start increasing until Jan 10 2016, show when NOAA's reports a weekly Nino 3.4 value centered on Jan 13th it is very reasonable that this value has not changed from last week.

Furthermore, the first three images were issued today (Jan 18 2016) by NOAA and show the: (a) Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom Evolution, showing that another downwelling phase has begun; (b) Eq Pac 5S-5N SSTA Evolution showing that the portion of the past EKW pulse reflected off of South America has now reached the Nino 3 zone, thus accounting for its weekly increase; and (c) the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom through Jan 18 also shows that a new downwelling phase of the EKW has entered the Eastern Eq Pac from the west.

The fourth image shows the Earth 850-hPa Wind & MSLP Map for Jan 18 2016 showing weak trade winds and a negative daily SOI.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 18, 2016, 05:59:07 PM
The first two images were issued today by the U at Albany showing the 5S-5N Wind Anom forecast from Jan 18 to 25 2016, for the 850-hPa, and the 200-hPa, conditions respectively.  These plots indicate that while the WWB has ended, the Walker Cell will reinforce El Nino conditions for the duration of the forecast.

The last two image were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Jan 17 2016, with the first image showing that the Nino 3.4 index dropped slightly, while the second image shows that the IOD remains negative but neutral.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 18, 2016, 06:01:51 PM
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending Jan 17 2016, and show that the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, all dropped last week.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 18, 2016, 09:35:55 PM
Just to continue my prior posts of Tropical Tidbit Daily Nino Indices plots, I provide these four plots for the Nino 1&2, 3, 3.4 and 4, respectively, through Jan 18 2016.  These plots support my basic premise that the current secondary peak (shoulder) will be short lived, and that the current Super El Nino will continue to degrade but more slowly than previously considered:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 19, 2016, 12:28:30 AM
Today's Oceans Are Different Than They Were Twenty Years Ago
Quote
While we can’t say that climate change causes El Nino, the evidence is mounting that the warming of our planet could be intensifying the natural phenomenon, which in turn can lead to some extreme weather events. New research published today in the journal Nature Climate Change found that half of the warming of our oceans seen since 1865 has happened in the past twenty years.

“Since the 1990s, the total amount of heat content change in the oceans is twice that of what we’d seen up until that point in the past 150 years,” said Chris Forest, a Penn State meteorology professor and coauthor of the paper.

While El Nino and La Nina are cyclical phenomena, they are powered by warm water in the Pacific and this current El Nino is accompanied by record-setting ocean temperatures. The combination has already led to a series of intense storms and flooding in line with the effects of previous strong El Nino years. While the new research does not attempt to link the data on warming oceans to the current El Nino, some see a correlation in that the two strongest El Nino events we’ve seen have occurred in that same twenty year window.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2016/01/18/todays-oceans-are-different-than-they-were-twenty-years-ago/ (http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2016/01/18/todays-oceans-are-different-than-they-were-twenty-years-ago/)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 19, 2016, 02:21:31 AM
Per the following data issued by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -16.3:

20151219,20160117,-16.3


Edit: Here's the plot
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 19, 2016, 07:21:38 PM
The first two attached plots show the U at Albany 5S-5N forecasts for Wind Anom from Jan 19 to 26 2016 for 850-hPa, and 200-hPa, respectively.  These plots show the Walker Cell weakly supporting El Nino conditions, but subject to disruption by possible future MJO activity (see the third image showing the ECMF MJO forecast from Jan 19 to Feb 2 2016).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 20, 2016, 02:23:50 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -17.4:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 20, 2016, 04:09:11 PM
The linked LA Times article indicates that to date most of this wet season's rain/snow has been in Northern California (due to an unusually persistent high pressure system to the Southwest of California), but experts believe that by the end of January through February the Southland will be more "Pineapple Express" storms:

http://www.latimes.com/local/weather/la-me-el-nino-nor-cal-20160119-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/weather/la-me-el-nino-nor-cal-20160119-story.html)

Extract: "One reason why storms haven't been able to get through to Southern California in recent weeks is an area of high pressure southwest of the state that has been unusually persistent, Stanford University climate scientist Daniel Swain said.
Although the forecast does not show any signs of major storms in the next week in the Southland, there appears to be a window of opportunity for significant precipitation to return shortly after that, Swain said.
Computer models suggest that there will be a burst of energy in the jet stream later in January.
The pattern suggests that "if there are any storms in the pipeline at the end of January, they will be able to both have a trajectory that might bring them into Southern California and it might allow them to maintain their strength," Swain said.
….

Experts say it's possible that the classic El Niño-influenced pattern could emerge by late January or early February. That would put it more in line with how the most punishing series of storms arrived in February 1998 and March of 1983.
"As we look back, the big show is usually in February, March — even into April and May," Patzert said. "So, in many ways, this is on schedule."


"This thing is getting ready to have a second peak," Patzert said. "I think El Niño will live up to its hype, but you have to be patient.""
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 20, 2016, 04:47:41 PM
The first two images are from the U at Albany 5S-5N Wind Anom forecast from Jan 20 to 27 2016, for the 850-hPa, and 200-hPa, cases, respectively.  These show atmospheric Walker conditions that reasonably reinforce El Nino conditions through Jan 23 2016, with a subsequent reversion back to near neutral atmospheric conditions.

The third image shows the Earth 850-hPa Wind & TPW forecast for Jan 24 2016, that generally supports the UatA forecast; however, I note that this image also shows that the SPCZ is becoming more organized, which might (or might not) support El Nino conditions after Jan 27.

The fourth image shows the GFS (NCPB) Ensemble MJO forecast from Jan 20 to Feb 3 2016, indicating that through Jan 23 the MJO should remain weak, but that is might (or might not) strengthen after that over the Indian Ocean which (if it were to occur) would be disruptive to El Nino (ie negative SOI) conditions:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 21, 2016, 12:30:17 AM
I thought that I would note that the attached NOAA Eq Pacific Upper Ocean Heat Anom 180-100W plot, circa Jan 20 2016, shows that the downwelling phase of the EKW is still carrying heat from the Western Pacific into the Eastern Pacific.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: James Lovejoy on January 21, 2016, 02:27:45 AM
Per the following data issued by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -18.0
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 21, 2016, 04:36:08 PM
The two attached images are from the following BBC site and they explain how/why the ITCZ shifts from one hemisphere to the other following the shift in the Thermal Equator.  Thus, the monsoon trough in the Western Pacific in January is located in the Southern Hemisphere and is currently weak.  The monsoon trough is an elongated area of low pressure that promotes the formation of Tropical Storms/Depressions and cyclones, that may (or may not) promote the development of WWBs:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/education/guides/z9yssbk/revision (http://www.bbc.co.uk/education/guides/z9yssbk/revision)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 21, 2016, 04:51:53 PM
The first image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast for Jan 21 to 28 2016, showing that the period of recent weak WWBs has come to an end.

The second image shows the ECMF MJO forecast from Jan 21 to Feb 4 2016, showing a weak MJO for the next week, which may (or may not) strengthen as it moves from the Indian Ocean into the Maritime Continent.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on January 21, 2016, 07:17:48 PM
Latest ENSO predictions plume from the IRI website:

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table (http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table)


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Firi.columbia.edu%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2016%2F01%2Ffigure4.gif&hash=3815b71085cb7b4ef69a5e2ebbeb3ac1)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Firi.columbia.edu%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2016%2F01%2Ffigure3.gif&hash=d8eed29afd8744e1e6e8b1a71f412551)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 22, 2016, 02:48:04 AM
Per the following data and the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued dropping down to -18.6:

20151222,20160120,-18.6
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on January 22, 2016, 05:32:58 AM
Tweet from Eric Blake.
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/690206247673532416 (https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/690206247673532416)
Quote
97-98 #ElNino much farther along to neutral/#LaNina than now @ subsurface- huge downwelling Kelvin Wave @ 140W noted
Open the first attachment below to view.

He also makes a comparison to January 20 in 91-92. Second attachment.
Imagine that follow up to this event... Third attachment.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 22, 2016, 06:32:06 PM
The first two images support Sleepy's post, that another pulse of downwelling for the EKW is well underway, as they show NOAA's computer model output for Jan 18 2016 for the Eq Pac Sursurface Temp Anom, and Temp, respectively.

The third image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom thru about Jan 22 2016, showing that the pulse of downwelling for the EKW continues to advect warm water from the Western Pacific to the Eastern Pacific.

The fourth image shows the Tropical Tidbit's daily Nino 3.4 through Jan 22 2016; and if this data has any correlation to the NOAA weekly Nino 3.4 data, then next Monday we can expect to see an increase in the weekly Nino 3.4 index.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 22, 2016, 06:38:22 PM
The first two images are from the Nullschool map for Jan 22 2016 showing the 850-hPa & MSLP, and the 200-hPa & TPW, maps respectively.  The last two images are the Nullschool forecast for Jan 26 2016, again for the 850-hPa & MSLP, and the 200-hPa & TPW, forecasts respectively.  These maps show that currently the daily SOI is relatively strongly negative and that a modest westerly wind persists near (south of) the Eq Dateline; but that by Jan 26 the atmosphere should provide less support for El Nino conditions (as is forecast by the UatA not shown).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 23, 2016, 02:36:06 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued dropping down to -19.2:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 23, 2016, 03:38:25 AM
The first image shows the BoM's POAMA Nino 3.4 forecast starting Jan 17 2016, clearly showing that this index show start to raise to a secondary peak (shoulder) before starting to drop again.

The last three images show the BoM's Nino 3.4 model forecast summaries for Feb., April and June 2016, respectively.  These plots show that most models agree through April, while for June only NOAA is truly bullish for remaining El Nino conditions through that month, while the BoM forecast is weakly bullish.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 23, 2016, 06:18:25 PM
For comparison with the TAO subsurface data provided in Reply #108, I provide the following two subsurface 5-day mean temperature plots for the period ending Jan 22 2016, for the temperature, and temperature anom, respectively.  This data confirms that the current downwelling phase of the EKW is underway:

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/plots/gif/Dep_Sec_EQ_5d.gif (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/plots/gif/Dep_Sec_EQ_5d.gif)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 24, 2016, 02:22:26 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -21.2.  While this is a 2.0 drop from yesterday, the real question is for how many days or weeks that the SOI can mean so low :
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 24, 2016, 04:15:33 PM
The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for Jan 24 2016, which indicates that the current downwelling phase of the EKW is: (a) effectively (for the time being) holding back cooler subsurface water from the Western Pacific, and (b) that this downwelling phase will be smaller than that in Nov 2015 and may likely peak soon.

The last statement is supported by the last three images from Levi Cowan's Tropical Tidbits which show the daily Nino 1+2, 3.4 and 4 indices for Jan 24 2016, respectively.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 24, 2016, 04:18:23 PM
As NOAA's GFS (NCPB) Ensemble MJO forecast is reasonably accurate for about 4-days, I provide the attached plot issued today by NOAA indicating that the MJO should be weak for a while and thus should have little impact on our current El Nino (for the time being).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 25, 2016, 02:28:39 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued plunging down to -22.3 (we will see if it stays this low or not):
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on January 25, 2016, 09:28:05 AM
The latest uncorrected from CFSv2 looks almost crazy towards September.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 25, 2016, 02:05:46 PM
Somewhat surprisingly to me, the following NOAA (NCEP) weekly data, for the week centered on January 20, 2016, indicates that both Nino 3 & 3.4 indices dropped down to +2.5:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 04NOV2015     23.4 2.1     27.8 2.8     29.5 2.8     30.3 1.7
 11NOV2015     23.5 2.0     27.9 3.0     29.7 3.0     30.3 1.7
 18NOV2015     23.8 2.1     28.0 3.0     29.7 3.1     30.4 1.8
 25NOV2015     24.4 2.4     28.0 3.0     29.6 3.0     30.3 1.8
 02DEC2015     24.7 2.4     27.9 2.9     29.5 2.9     30.2 1.7
 09DEC2015     24.8 2.3     28.0 2.9     29.4 2.8     30.2 1.7
 16DEC2015     25.2 2.4     28.0 2.9     29.5 2.9     30.2 1.7
 23DEC2015     25.2 2.1     28.0 2.7     29.3 2.7     30.0 1.6
 30DEC2015     25.2 1.6     28.0 2.6     29.3 2.7     29.9 1.5
 06JAN2016     25.7 1.8     28.1 2.7     29.1 2.6     29.7 1.4
 13JAN2016     25.7 1.4     28.3 2.8     29.2 2.6     29.6 1.3
 20JAN2016     26.0 1.4     28.2 2.5     29.1 2.5     29.6 1.4
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 25, 2016, 04:06:57 PM
Per the first two images from the BoM for the week ending Jan 24 2016, both the Nino 3.4 and the IOD were down (less positive and more negative, respectively).

The third image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Jan 25 to Feb 1 2016, indicating little, or no, WWB activity.

The fourth image shows the GFS (NCPB) Ensemble MJO forecast from Jan 25 to Feb 8 2016, showing little, or no, significant MJO activity in the next week.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 25, 2016, 04:09:13 PM
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending Jan 24 2016, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 and 4, indices, respectively.  All values are down, except the Nino 4 index, which is slightly up.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Pmt111500 on January 25, 2016, 05:01:10 PM
Umm, the set of images on Enso areas would very much look like the event has at most one peak still to come and maybe the waxing phase has ended. Requires confirmation of course. ENSO has already produced some of its known weather effects and we should continue to see these and more. The oddball cyclone straight to arctic would likely have had some of its energy from the tropical pacific via tropical atlantic. The strong cold break going on in Asia might be linked to the peak of nino, and why not also Jonas the storm could have been milder absent nino. Etc etc... Plenty of stuff going on that meteorologists may study.

The way i see it The next two-four-six months see direct effects of this great nino. The six following see much winter rains and then the effects may enter the Arctic. I think the n.pacific hot blob might reform but there have been el ninos that direct the hot anomalies to s.hemiphere too. I've got no idea what this one will do. Oh. This might be the longest post i've ever written with  a phone, so this might not be very fluent. Better i end here for i can't anymore remember how the message started. There maybe edits afterwards.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: gregb on January 25, 2016, 10:58:41 PM
If you have been following ASLR's daily SOI posts, this should comes as no surprise:

Quote
According to NASA's Earth Observatory, this shift in the SOI was not missed by scientists monitoring the pattern:

Bill Patzert, a climatologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, sees the potential for a second peak for this El Niño. He pointed to a recent relaxation in the trade winds and a west wind burst that could refuel the warming trend in the eastern Pacific. Weaker trade winds in the eastern Pacific allow west wind bursts to push warm waters toward the Americas. Patzert suspects February and March 2016 could still be very active months for El Niño-driven weather along the western coasts of the Americas.

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/el-nino-update-could-it-be-gaining-a-second-wind/62695/ (http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/el-nino-update-could-it-be-gaining-a-second-wind/62695/)

And a word regarding the CFS and other models - as I understand it, model skill will soon decrease as we approach the "spring barrier". Perhaps this is one cause for the increasingly chaotic output. I find it interesting that the CFS, unlike most other models, no longer indicates any sort of quick reversal into a La Nina state.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 26, 2016, 02:30:00 AM
Today's attached BoM plot indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has reached at least a two year low and now is at -23.3:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Pmt111500 on January 26, 2016, 03:33:55 AM
Thanks gregb, I wasn't aware of the statement, I occasionally check many of the graphs but do not follow those intensely, like ASRL. Rather I'm trying to 'take snapshots' of interesting situations and try to formulate some sensible text about them. Sometimes this goes way off but here at asiforum there are plenty of peers to cross-check speculations and pointing out errors, that are inevitable in the absence of perfection in the analysis of complex systems and in the presence of human fallibility and lack of correct info and fully eidetic memory.

F.e. I thought the spring barrier only applied when there isn't an el nino going on. What do you think, could the spring barrier be of mathematical origin? Say when the itcz crosses the equator there might be some zero-issues like those in the poles? This is not likely as there are no issues during autumn, but i find the specific notion odd, one would think the skill would be the same the whole time?
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on January 26, 2016, 05:58:12 AM
This might not be a good explanation, but I'll try.
The origin of the spring predictability barrier is mostly due to unpredictable weather patterns. If what you put into the models is uncertain, then the errors in the output will increase as well.

And as for trying to understand if we will have a La Nina or not later on, while following model outputs, the Nino4 region is probably the better region to monitor.

Right now in winter, with strong El Nino conditions, dynamical model outputs should provide a better forecast.
Comparing to regular weather forecasts, the initial runs from a model can sometimes be more accurate than the later ones. I don't know if thats true for these longer forecasts, but I do think that following them consistently is the way to go to try to understand when they are on track or off. And of course, following it in real time.

I'll attach the ECMWF Nino34 plumes for February, March and April from last year.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 26, 2016, 06:42:35 PM
Compared to the TAO image from Jan 24 2016 in Reply #143, the attached TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom plot for Jan 26 2016, shows a small region of +6C subsurface anomaly; which indicates that the downwelling phase of the EKW has yet to peak (but note that the SSTA looks to be somewhat coolish in the Nino 3.4 region)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 27, 2016, 02:41:42 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -23.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 27, 2016, 05:09:29 PM
The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for Jan 27 2016.  As the region of +6C temp anom has disappeared we can assume that the current downwelling phase of the EKW may have just peaked.  This idea is supported by the second image of NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom circa January 27 2016, showing that the heat content is no longer increasing.  I also note that there are no meaningful WWBs in the forecast, so it looks like the current El Nino will continue to degrade.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 27, 2016, 05:40:25 PM
The linked Robert Scribbler article supports some of A-Team's concerns that the current Super El Nino may not bring much precipitation to the US Southwest (as forecast), and raises the question of whether Polar Amplification (and/or the Blob) may be creating blocking highs that deflect storms to the north:

http://robertscribbler.com/2016/01/26/polar-amplification-vs-a-godzilla-el-nino-is-the-pacific-storm-track-being-shoved-north-by-arctic-warming/ (http://robertscribbler.com/2016/01/26/polar-amplification-vs-a-godzilla-el-nino-is-the-pacific-storm-track-being-shoved-north-by-arctic-warming/)

Extract: "Polar Amplification vs a Godzilla El Nino — Is the Pacific Storm Track Being Shoved North by Arctic Warming?



Particularly, there has been an absence of powerful storms running in over Southern California then surging on into Arizona, New Mexico and West Texas. During strong El Nino events, heat and moisture bleeding off the super-warmed Equator have typically fed powerful storms racing across the Pacific. These storms have tended to engulf the entire US Pacific Coast from San Diego through to Seattle. However, much of the storm energy is often directed further south toward Central and Southern California.


The question to be asked is, then, are these new influences related to human-forced warming also now doing battle with El Nino for control over the Pacific Storm Track? And has that influence increased enough to dramatically nudge that track northward? We may find the answer to that question in what happens to the direction of powerful Pacific Storms over the next few months. But early indications seem to be that polar warming and the related hot blob may have thrown a wrench in the kinds of El Nino storms that we’ve been used to."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 28, 2016, 02:28:50 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -23.6:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Tor Bejnar on January 28, 2016, 04:10:09 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -23.6:
Wow, that's the lowest this El Nino.  Does it imply anything?
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on January 28, 2016, 05:25:01 AM
Fluctuations in the SOI are common this time of year. Looking at the big picture, this event should be fading now. AGW is not. :(
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: A-Team on January 28, 2016, 04:01:16 PM
Quote
The linked Robert Scribbler article supports some of A-Team's concerns that the current Super El Nino may not bring much precipitation to the US Southwest (as forecast), and raises the question of whether Polar Amplification (and/or the Blob) may be creating blocking highs that deflect storms to the north
Do the math: there's not going to be any aftermath in the Southwest (a critical area of prediction effort). I called this one on 10 Dec 15 (bottom 5 links) some 47 days ahead of Scribbler, who deserves high marks though for exploring mechanism and not following the meteorological herd: JPL NASA climatology and 100 others:

http://www.latimes.com/local/weather/la-me-ln-where-is-el-nino-20160126-story.html. (http://www.latimes.com/local/weather/la-me-ln-where-is-el-nino-20160126-story.html.)

On a scale of 1-5, I can at best give the meteorological community a score of -1 in forecasting skill because bad advice is worse than no advice. Instead of squandering the public trust in science on nonsensical preparations for flooding/food hoarding, we should have been preparing them for extension of the drought.

I also predicted the excuse list back in December that will come to dominate weather news in another month but need to add a few new ones:

-- in the past, the big El Nino rains always come in January, February March April, trust us
-- with all the new data from this godzilla El Nino, we can perfect our computer models for next time
-- our computer models performed perfectly, just not where you are
-- our models successfully predicted heavy El Nino rains if you don't count the jet stream
-- just two big prior El Nino years can provide sound statistics even though the climates were different back then
-- we might be headed for a big La Nada or La Nina (if only our funding can be increased!)
-- wow, that big snowstorm in DC, no doubt that's attributable to El Nino
-- look over there, hurricane season has started in the Caribbean

I've noticed lately a lot of weather sites have taken it upon themselves to redefine 'normal' precip as relative to only the last 20 year average! When 15 of those were drought cycle? Sure, but if we go down that cherry-picking road, 2015 had fairly 'normal' CO2 and global temps too.

Colorado River basin snowpack (ie Southern California water) is now 102.72% of the January 28th 'average'. In other words, you'll be taking navy showers again by June.
Quote
Sierra Nevada snowpack showed water content statewide at 18.7 inches or 115% of the historical average for that date, according to the California Department of Water Resources. The snowpack’s water content must be significantly greater than the April 1 average of 28 inches to have any considerable effect on the drought, according to the department.  In an average year, melting snowpack provides roughly one third of the water used by California cities and farms.
I'm trying to keep an open mind about December, January, mid-February, late-Feb and March but when I open up to the 250 hPA wind and walk it back for a month (no change) or look another 10 days forward at Jeff Masters (no change), it shuts down again:

http://marine.rutgers.edu/~francis/pubs_10-05.html (http://marine.rutgers.edu/~francis/pubs_10-05.html) Jennifer Francis publications
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-110.80,42.71,393 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-110.80,42.71,393)

I have a simple proposal: let's compile all weather data from 1980 on but only north of the Mexican border, double-blind the years (eg 1997/98 --> 2fTy/m4He), test the top 100 self-appointed climate experts for their ability to identify the status of the waters in the south equatorial Pacific (numerical strength of El Nino conditions, or merely which years were the strong El Ninos).

My theory is once meteorologists are told it's a godzilla El Nino, everything under the sun gets attributed to it -- and echoed everywhere (as happened with Piltdown Man, polywater, and desktop nuclear fusion). But if you had told them it's a neutral La Nada, the identical event would get attributed to normal chaotic fluctuations in 'weather'. I'm predicting that no one can invert the data north of Mexico to the status of south equatorial Pacific waters.

We all know what happens when this is done with wine sommeliers: Two Buck Chuck and Gallo Hearty Burgundy come out on top of all them fancy bordeaux.

2015 El Niño?: Reply #1431 on December 10, 2015
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1064.msg66948.html#msg66948 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1064.msg66948.html#msg66948)

2015 El Niño?: Reply #1429 on December 10, 2015
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1064.msg66940.html#msg66940 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1064.msg66940.html#msg66940)

2015 El Niño?: Reply #1458 on December 21, 2015
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1064.msg67293.html#msg67293 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1064.msg67293.html#msg67293)

Thermohaline Circulation Connections: Reply #3 on December 31, 2015
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1448.msg67664.html#msg67664 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1448.msg67664.html#msg67664)

2015/16 El Niño the aftermath: Reply #62 on January 10, 2016
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1454.msg68122.html#msg68122 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1454.msg68122.html#msg68122)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 28, 2016, 04:32:44 PM
Fluctuations in the SOI are common this time of year. Looking at the big picture, this event should be fading now. AGW is not. :(

I concur that looking at the big picture this El Nino is clearly fading now.  Furthermore, looking at the last 30-day moving SOI average is like looking in the rearview mirror (in that it looks at the past 30-day's events that yielded a very weak downwelling phase of the EKW but that is already dissipating).  In general terms, the 30-day moving average SOI only means something when its values are sustained for periods of two to three months.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Tor Bejnar on January 28, 2016, 04:39:09 PM
Thanks, Sleepy and ASLR.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 28, 2016, 05:58:33 PM
My theory is once meteorologists are told it's a godzilla El Nino, everything under the sun gets attributed to it -- and echoed everywhere (as happened with Piltdown Man, polywater, and desktop nuclear fusion). But if you had told them it's a neutral La Nada, the identical event would get attributed to normal chaotic fluctuations in 'weather'. I'm predicting that no one can invert the data north of Mexico to the status of south equatorial Pacific waters.

We all know what happens when this is done with wine sommeliers: Two Buck Chuck and Gallo Hearty Burgundy come out on top of all them fancy bordeaux.

A-Team,

You make a lot of good points; most of which illustrate to me why it is so difficult for climate scientists to discredit denalists, and also illustrate why most climate scientists err on the side of least drama.  First, many meteorologists have expressed doubts about climate change, as they use empirically determined relationships to forecast local weather and they say that they have not seen clear proof of an emergent climate change signal.  Now w.r.t. forecasting the ENSO cycle is half way between climate trends and local weather, so one would expect a lot of message spinning in this matter.  Until forecasting agencies (like NOAA) have routine access to daily/weekly updates from well calibrated non-linear global models (like ACME 5 to 10 years from now); it will remain impossible to forecast the type of dynamic interaction between Arctic Amplification and the ENSO cycle that Scribbler is discussing.  Unfortunately, you are correct that denalists make hay about the fact that the forecasts in Arizona were off, and so they cast doubts about climate change (e.g. doubts that climate change will increase the frequency of large El Nino events); nevertheless, I say that climate scientists need to develop thick skins (like James Hansen) to take some short-term heat (note that Hansen has been proven to be a bit too bullish on short-term occasions, but has looked very wise (to me at least) in the long-term) otherwise no one will take timely climate action until the well calibrated non-linear models can provide accurate regional forecasts on a weekly basis.

Lastly, I note that per the following linked drought report, that the Godzilla El Nino has so far made a modest dent in the drought (but more so in California than Arizona).


http://www.capradio.org/articles/2016/01/28/modest-dents-in-long-term-california-drought/ (http://www.capradio.org/articles/2016/01/28/modest-dents-in-long-term-california-drought/)

Unfortunately, climate change is a "wicked problem" that likely will not be solved until well after billions of people have died this century due to lack of appropriate action.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 29, 2016, 02:35:57 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -22.7:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: wili on January 29, 2016, 04:42:41 AM
The climate system of the whole planet is fundamentally altered, so of course this El Nino is going to play out rather differently than most others. Just because LA hasn't had exactly the weather predicted yet doesn't mean that there haven't been any effects north of Mexico.

Based on the being an El Nino year, predictions were for a somewhat warmer and dryer winter than usual here in MN. We have certainly had that here so far. I haven't kept track of predicted effects versus actual weather in other areas, though.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on January 29, 2016, 05:14:35 AM
Yes, every El Nino is different and I think most people following this one have noticed that AGW played a large part. This Tamino post that was posted in the global surface air temperatures thread, deserves to be posted here as well.
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/01/27/el-nino-and-the-2015-record-breaking-heat/ (https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/01/27/el-nino-and-the-2015-record-breaking-heat/)
Quote
My result indicates that el Niño led to 0.08 deg.C warmer temperature in 2015. That’s hardly enough to explain the record heat, which was mainly due to global warming. Note, however, that el Niño caused fully 0.2 deg.C warming in 1998, so the record heat of that year — which the deniers love to point to as the “end” of global warming — really was due to el Niño.
Quote
For 2015 as a whole, el Niño contributed in a small way to its extreme heat. But the main factor was the continuing trend. That’s due to man-made greenhouse gases, and it’s called global warming.

I'll wait a bit longer. Scandinavia had a cold snap, but that's about it and it wasn't really El Nino induced. Maybe another cold snap in February, but I would favour March to be affected and colder than normal. Maybe.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 29, 2016, 04:30:34 PM
The first image of the Earth 250-hPa Wind & TPW forecast for Jan 31 2016, includes Arizona and shows that by Sunday night/Monday morning Arizona should have rain in the low-lands and snow in the high-lands.  This indicates that the Asian Jetstream has (at least temporarily) moved the high pressure system of the coast of California out of its typical path.

The second & third image shows NOAA's & TAO's Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom profiles, for Jan 23 and for Jan 29 2016, respectively.  Both of these images confirm that the recent weak downwelling phase of the EKW has already peaked and is now degrading.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 30, 2016, 02:47:45 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -21.9:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 30, 2016, 07:11:10 PM
The climate system of the whole planet is fundamentally altered, so of course this El Nino is going to play out rather differently than most others. Just because LA hasn't had exactly the weather predicted yet doesn't mean that there haven't been any effects north of Mexico.

Based on the being an El Nino year, predictions were for a somewhat warmer and dryer winter than usual here in MN. We have certainly had that here so far. I haven't kept track of predicted effects versus actual weather in other areas, though.

The linked article discusses the WHO's projection that our current super El Nino event threatens the health of a least 60 million people in high-risk developing countries:

http://www.who.int/hac/crises/el-nino/22january2015/en/ (http://www.who.int/hac/crises/el-nino/22january2015/en/)

Extract: "El Niño threatens at least 60 million people in high-risk developing countries

WHO and its partners predict a major global increase in health consequences of emergencies this year due to El Niño."

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: wili on January 30, 2016, 07:52:59 PM
We can only hope they're wrong about this one. Well, we could also prepare...

{sark}nah, better to allow a predictable crisis to explode in our faces rather than take any early preventive action. That worked so well for Ebola and now for Zika! {/sark}

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 31, 2016, 02:31:12 AM
The linked article indicates that both global warming and the ENSO cycle have contributed to the explosive spread of the Zika virus (see also the associated attached map):

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/zika-virus-climate-change-19970 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/zika-virus-climate-change-19970)

Extract: "The rapid rise of the Zika virus is turning into a full-on public health crisis. The virus, transferred via specific types of mosquitoes, “is now spreading explosively” across Latin America, according to Margaret Chan, the head of the World Health Organization (WHO).
There could be up to 4 million cases right now, just eight months after the first case was reported in Brazil. There are 23 countries where the virus is active.
A number of factors have had to line up for the Zika virus — a disease that’s been associated with birth defects — to spread so far and wide so quickly, but chief among them is heavy rain and heat. Climate change could play a future role in this virus’ — as well as other mosquito-borne illnesses — spread as it creates conditions more favorable to the mosquitoes that transmit it.
Heavy rain and warm temperatures have helped the mosquitoes carrying Zika thrive. There have been heavy rains in southern Brazil and Uruguay this winter (and really for much of the year). Those rains can translate to standing water on the ground, which is crucial mosquito breeding habitat. El Niño has a strong influence on that region and it’s likely playing a role in increased risk of the Zika virus there.
The outbreak initially started in the northeast of the country, however, which usually dries out during El Niño (this year has been no exception). It might seem counterintuitive but drought is also prime time for mosquitoes. There's a notable link between an uptick in dengue fever — another disease transmitted by mosquitoes that transmit Zika — and drought because of how people store water in the region.
Then there's the heat.

Temperatures have been above normal for much of Latin America as a whole since early last year, which was also the warmest on record for the world. El Niño has helped warm things up, but climate change is directly responsible for all of last year’s record heat globally.

That heat is in some ways a more important ingredient driving the Zika virus outbreak. It not only means mosquitoes can incubate the virus, but also that people are also more likely to be outside and have exposed skin for mosquitoes to feast on.

...

In fact, a La Niña could help the virus spread to other parts of Latin America and the Caribbean.
“Historically, La Niña periods in the Caribbean during the summer months is a dengue time bomb,” Teddy Allen, a postdoctoral researcher at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, said. “The same could be said about Zika since it is transmitted by the same aedes aegypti mosquito.”

In winter, La Niña tips the odds in favor of wetter than normal conditions in northeast Brazil, which could help the virus continue to get a foothold there as well. Vittor said it’s also possible that the virus could evolve and get picked up by other mosquitoes."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 31, 2016, 02:55:16 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -21.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on January 31, 2016, 09:12:43 AM
We can only hope they're wrong about this one. Well, we could also prepare...

{sark}nah, better to allow a predictable crisis to explode in our faces rather than take any early preventive action. That worked so well for Ebola and now for Zika! {/sark}
Hope is the last thing ever lost.
Here we are occupied with other things, like getting rid of immigrants.
http://www.svt.se/nyheter/regionalt/vast/har-tander-de-eld-pa-assyriska-foreningens-lokaler (http://www.svt.se/nyheter/regionalt/vast/har-tander-de-eld-pa-assyriska-foreningens-lokaler)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 31, 2016, 08:14:58 PM
We can only hope they're wrong about this one. Well, we could also prepare...

{sark}nah, better to allow a predictable crisis to explode in our faces rather than take any early preventive action. That worked so well for Ebola and now for Zika! {/sark}
Hope is the last thing ever lost.
Here we are occupied with other things, like getting rid of immigrants.
http://www.svt.se/nyheter/regionalt/vast/har-tander-de-eld-pa-assyriska-foreningens-lokaler (http://www.svt.se/nyheter/regionalt/vast/har-tander-de-eld-pa-assyriska-foreningens-lokaler)

Germany also wishes to return its immigrants:
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/01/31/merkel-migrants-must-return-home-once-war-is-over/ (http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/01/31/merkel-migrants-must-return-home-once-war-is-over/)

However, the reality is that only more climate refugees will be smuggled into Europe from Sub-Saharan Africa (for the next couple of years at least many of these will be associated with the current super El Nino event):
http://qz.com/605609/the-climate-change-refugee-crisis-is-only-just-beginning/ (http://qz.com/605609/the-climate-change-refugee-crisis-is-only-just-beginning/)

Edit: See also:
http://www.eturbonews.com/67840/eu-humanitarian-aid-horn-africa (http://www.eturbonews.com/67840/eu-humanitarian-aid-horn-africa)

Extract: "In Somalia, El Niño has triggered higher than usual rainfalls in the south with around 150 000 people facing floods at the end of 2015. At the same time, the weather phenomenon is linked to drought in the north, where over 340 000 people are in urgent need of assistance. In a fragile context, such as in Somalia, even small-scale natural hazards can have a devastating effect.

In Ethiopia, the number of food insecure people has increased from 2.9 million at the beginning of 2015 to over 10 million currently. Rates of acute undernutrition are well above emergency thresholds in many parts of the country. Meanwhile, the response to this situation is hindered by an important shortage of nutrition supplies. In the worst affected areas in the northern, central and eastern regions of the country, hundreds of thousands of livestock deaths have been reported.

...

The EU is one of the largest donors in the Horn of Africa, having provided over €1 billion in humanitarian aid since 2011.

For 2016, the EU will provide €77 million in humanitarian assistance in the region. The support will mostly cover the needs in the areas of food, nutrition, health, water, sanitation and hygiene, shelter, protection and education in emergencies.

This comes in addition to the El Niño related support of €79 million announced in December last year for the Greater Horn of Africa (Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan and Uganda).

Edit2: See Also:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/climate-change-could-devastate-africa-its-already-hurting-this-kenyan-town/2016/01/29/f77c8e5a-9f58-11e5-9ad2-568d814bbf3b_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/climate-change-could-devastate-africa-its-already-hurting-this-kenyan-town/2016/01/29/f77c8e5a-9f58-11e5-9ad2-568d814bbf3b_story.html)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 01, 2016, 02:27:47 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -20.6:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: wili on February 01, 2016, 01:34:01 PM
Thanks for the links (though I would steer clear of Breitbart if you are looking for reliably accurate reporting).

Meanwhile, there seem to be some odd El Nino effects going on in CA:

Ice dams choke off community


Quote
The intense weather wasn’t limited to Southern California.

In the northeast part of the state, ice dams formed on the South Fork of the Yuba River, CNN affiliate KCRA reported.

The frozen blockades — and a recent onslaught of rain — caused a backlog of water, flooding parts of Soda Springs, the affiliate said.

We can blame it on El Nino,” Vick Ferrera of the Nevada County Office of Emergency Services told KCRA.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/01/us/california-weather/ (http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/01/us/california-weather/)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 01, 2016, 04:12:12 PM
Thanks for the links (though I would steer clear of Breitbart if you are looking for reliably accurate reporting).

Thanks for the heads-up about Breitbart.  Here is a replacement link to another source:

https://www.rt.com/news/330808-merkel-refugees-go-home/ (https://www.rt.com/news/330808-merkel-refugees-go-home/)

Extract: "German Chancellor Angela Merkel says that most of the refugees entering Germany from Syria and Iraq are expected to return home once conflicts in their countries have ended. The statement comes as Merkel facing mounting pressure over her open-door policy. "
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 01, 2016, 04:19:25 PM
Per the following weekly NOAA Nino indices data, Nino 3.4 remained constant at 2.5 while the Nino 4 index rose to 1.5, for the week centered on Jan 27, 2016.  Also, the attached NOAA Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom through about Feb 1 2016 shows a plateau in ocean heat content:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 18NOV2015     23.8 2.1     28.0 3.0     29.7 3.1     30.4 1.8
 25NOV2015     24.4 2.4     28.0 3.0     29.6 3.0     30.3 1.8
 02DEC2015     24.7 2.4     27.9 2.9     29.5 2.9     30.2 1.7
 09DEC2015     24.8 2.3     28.0 2.9     29.4 2.8     30.2 1.7
 16DEC2015     25.2 2.4     28.0 2.9     29.5 2.9     30.2 1.7
 23DEC2015     25.2 2.1     28.0 2.7     29.3 2.7     30.0 1.6
 30DEC2015     25.2 1.6     28.0 2.6     29.3 2.7     29.9 1.5
 06JAN2016     25.7 1.8     28.1 2.7     29.1 2.6     29.7 1.4
 13JAN2016     25.7 1.4     28.3 2.8     29.2 2.6     29.6 1.3
 20JAN2016     26.0 1.4     28.2 2.5     29.1 2.5     29.6 1.4
 27JAN2016     26.1 1.0     28.2 2.3     29.1 2.5     29.7 1.5
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 01, 2016, 04:30:03 PM
The first two images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Jan 31 2016 showing that both the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, indices respectively, remained relatively constant last week.

The last two images were issued today by NOAA showing both the Eq Pac SSTA, and Upper Ocean Heat Anom, Evolutions respectively; which verify that a recent weak downwelling phase of the EKW just peaked (which almost certainly slowed the rate of decline for the current El Nino).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 01, 2016, 04:33:30 PM
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending Jan 31 2016, for the Nino 1, 2, 3 and 4 indices, respectively.  This shows the Nino 1&2 region relatively stable, Nino 3 declining and Nino 4 increasing:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 01, 2016, 05:30:25 PM
The first image shows the ECMF MJO forecast from Feb 1 to 15 2016, indicating that the MJO should remain neutral for the next 4 days and then should increase as it heads into the Western Pacific (where if it continues to the International Dateline it could contribute to atmospheric conditions that reinforce El Nino continues, for as long as the MJO might stay in the Central Eq Pacific).

The second image shows the BoM's Eq Pac Dateline Cloud Cover data issued circa Feb 1 2016, showing increasing cloud cover that might (or might not) eventually contribute to a Walker Cell pattern that weakly support El Nino conditions (i.e. potentially slowing the rate of the current El Nino decline).

The last two images show the U at Albany 5S-5N Wind Anom forecast from Feb 1 to 8 2016, for the 850-hPa, and the 200-hPa, conditions respectively.  These plots show suppressed trade winds for the duration of the forecast, with the possibility (or not) of enhanced Walker Cell El Nino pattern at the end of the period.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: wili on February 01, 2016, 07:19:40 PM
More on El Nino and CA (apologies if this was already linked): http://www.climatecentral.org/news/el-nino-is-here-so-why-is-california-still-in-drought-19975?utm_content=buffer4c2e0&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/el-nino-is-here-so-why-is-california-still-in-drought-19975?utm_content=buffer4c2e0&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer)


El Niño Is Here, So Why Is California Still in Drought?


Quote
A parade of El Niño-fueled storms has marched over California in the last few weeks, bringing bouts of much needed rain and snow to the parched state. But maps of drought conditions there have barely budged, with nearly two-thirds of the state still in the worst two categories of drought.

So what gives?

The short answer, experts say, is that the drought built up over several years (with help from hotter temperatures fueled in part by global warming) and it will take many more storms and almost assuredly more than a single winter — even one with a strong El Niño — to erase it...

[While some short-term indicators have improved]...Long-term impacts like depleted groundwater, low reservoir levels and pitiful stream flows, “they’re not responding much at all yet,” Brian Fuchs, another NDMC climatologist, said. “The reservoir levels have hardly moved.”

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: ritter on February 02, 2016, 01:03:45 AM
In the 2016 freezing thread, Lord M Vader notes the possible return of the RRR. My observation: After promising and "normal" December and January temperatures and rainfall, February is looking like the return of Februly with temps forecast in the high 60s to low 70s and zippo rainfall in the next two weeks for the Northern Bay Area.  :( Not the drought buster we hoped for.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 02, 2016, 02:16:39 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -19.2:

20160102,20160131,-19.2


Edit: Here's the plot
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on February 02, 2016, 08:33:50 PM
Latest monthly MJO forecast from ECMWF suggests a possibility of a moderate WWB by the second half of February as the MJO moves toward phase 6-8. If so our latest EKW should continue to build. Quite a big difference in the subsurface temps between the two last times (see noaa subsurface animation).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml)

//LMV
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Tor Bejnar on February 02, 2016, 08:40:29 PM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued dropping down to -19.2:
...
I know you meant something like "... the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up, now at -19.2" ;)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: gregb on February 02, 2016, 10:04:53 PM
In the 2016 freezing thread, Lord M Vader notes the possible return of the RRR. My observation: After promising and "normal" December and January temperatures and rainfall, February is looking like the return of Februly with temps forecast in the high 60s to low 70s and zippo rainfall in the next two weeks for the Northern Bay Area.  :( Not the drought buster we hoped for.

Weather does seem to be returning to the RRR pattern we saw last year. The following image from the long range GFS forecast looks like many from this time last year, with the same NA East/West temperature division and jet stream position. The anomalies shown below appear at the end of a forecasted week+ of warm, dry weather on the west coast. The rainfall totals have dropped off considerably in the NW since the start of the year and there is now none in the forecast after a weak system passes through over the next few days.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 03, 2016, 12:44:20 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued dropping down to -19.2:
...
I know you meant something like "... the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up, now at -19.2" ;)

Thanks.  I will need to pay more attention in the future.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 03, 2016, 02:17:04 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued dropping down to -19.2:
...
I know you meant something like "... the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up, now at -19.2" ;)


Thanks.  I will need to pay more attention in the future.

Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -17.8:

20160103,20160201,-17.8
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: JimD on February 03, 2016, 04:36:27 PM
ASLR

I wanted to point out something related to one of your posts about 10 days ago.  You were talking about the poor forecasting for precipitation in the Southwest for this El Nino.

Here in AZ we are having one of the wettest winters in many years.  While 2015 was still a drought year where I live (the last year with above average precipitation was 1998) the total was higher than all but 1 year since 1998.  And so far in 2016 we are seeing continuing significant moisture. 

This of course makes no claim as to what the eventual winter totals will be nor if they will be above the historical precipitation average, but it is indeed a wetter year than has been the norm for some time now.

I attribute some of our outlook to the need to shift our viewpoint to account for the changing climate.  What I mean here is that the old historical numbers on precipitation are no longer useful for future predictions.  Due to the nature of this long drought and the effects of climate change kicking in to drive the SW into deeper and longer term drought we can no longer use historical numbers to gauge current status.

In other words this is indeed an El Nino wet year with above average precipitation, but it is not statistically possible to recognize it since we no longer know precisely what average precipitation actually is - since the old numbers one would use to calculate them are so far from current and likely future conditions.

For example where I live in Prescott, AZ the historical norm for precipitation was 19 inches up until 1998 - not a typo there as much of the AZ high country historically received good rainfall.  Today the historical norm for precipitation is 18 inches in Prescott, but as I mentioned we have not had the historical norm (whether we consider it 19 or 18) since 1998.  We are in freefall so to speak.  Over the last 18 years our high year has been about 15 inches and the average more like 12 inches.  Where is the bottom you say?  Who knows, but this really tells us that the old numbers are no longer usefull in many ways.

If 2015 was a high precip year at just under 15 inches and with our new norm seeming to be heading for around 12 inches then this El Nino did indeed meet the forecast expectations of being a very wet SW.  It just points out to how screwed we really are.

What do you think of that?

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 03, 2016, 06:10:27 PM
New post from AGU explains the measured dearth of chlorophyll in the top layers of the ocean during El Niño.

Understanding the 2015–16 El Niño and its impact on phytoplankton
Quote
Focusing on the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño events are highlighted as times when sea-surface chlorophyll concentrations decline along the equator due to the loss of the normal nutrient supply from deep water. This decrease in primary productivity is felt by species up the highest levels of the marine food web.
https://blogs.agu.org/geospace/2016/02/01/13164/
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on February 03, 2016, 08:05:47 PM
Latest run from CFS v2 hints the possibilty of a moderate to very strong WWB by wek 3-4. At the same time the forecast indicates significantly increasing westerlies at 850 hpa west of California(!) Initially it looks like the easterlies in the far east pacific will reactivate and cool down the waters in Nino 1+2 area before the westerlies take over. Will be very interesting to see if the forecasts continue to show this solution or if it will fizzle.

See and judge for yourself http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/ (http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/)

Best, LMV
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 03, 2016, 10:55:41 PM
ASLR

I wanted to point out something related to one of your posts about 10 days ago.  You were talking about the poor forecasting for precipitation in the Southwest for this El Nino.

Here in AZ we are having one of the wettest winters in many years. 

...

It just points out to how screwed we really are.

What do you think of that?

JimD,

I think that the points that you make are reasonable.  That AGW will contribute to long-term drought in the SW, and that the ENSO pattern is super-imposed on this pattern.

That said climate change is a "wicked problem" filled with uncertainties and most people are only interested in what effects them specifically and they want a relatively high degree of certainty before they are willing to support any action at all (I note that the need for climate change action has been clear starting at least in the early 1980's, but that very little action has been taken to date).

I have posted that I am concerned that intense El Ninos will become more frequent with AGW; which does not mean that I think that the drought in the SW will not intensify.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 04, 2016, 02:16:58 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -16.8:

20160104,20160202,-16.8


Edit: here is the plot
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on February 04, 2016, 06:16:11 PM
The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) for the last 3-month period (November-December-January average) came in at  +2.31°C, exceeding the maximum ONI value of the 1997-1998 El Nino event by about 0.05°C:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: A-Team on February 04, 2016, 07:31:08 PM
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most people are only interested in what affects them specifically ... in Prescott AZ

Well, when FEMA spends a hundred million on emergency flood preparedness for the Southwest based on these ever-so-cocky predictions, then it becomes everybody's business. Perhaps some of this money should be clawed back from the salaries of these non-stop blowhards.

When Californians drastically ramp down conservation efforts baseed on these pronouncements, then later come raiding other states' water for relief (Frasier River pipeline would come down from BC), it affects many peoples lives.

When the meteorological community degrades the public confidence in science with their worthless predictions, that too becomes everybody's business. This is one of most intensively researched topics ever ... yet here we are with absolutely nothing to show for it. Why should the public believe sea level rise coming from these 'same' scientists?

AZ is in fact having an exceedingly dry winter (if by AZ you include Phoenix and Tucson). The main topic of conversation around here is the rain we had back in October (neither monsoonal nor nino). And we're looking at another ten days with no change, mid February temperatures in the low 80's (28.3ºC) to evaporate whatever soil moisture might still be around.

I would echo JimD on the the mickeymouse around 'average' rainfall. Same story in Tucson ... look at those older numbers, scratch your head, watch the cactus turn yellow and the CA joshua trees fall over, wonder how the old-timers ranched creosote bush, and imagine how things would look like if we ever saw average rain years again.

Also I should have added 'ridiculously resilient ridge' to the el nino excuse list in my previous post. I am sorting through google hits right now to see which excuses have been used most often and how that changes over time. They're going to ride this BS right out to the end, then switch over abruptly to hurricanes, that's my prediction.

The forums here have been well balanced and informative. By mid-March though, we may need to replace the aftermath forum with an undermath forum, lessons learned from failure and all that.

Edit: I should have made clear to folks overseas that this is not about our backyards being dry. It is about the Pacific Ocean weather systems that furnish most of the water to North America. And -- with the still-mysterious RRR forming up five years in a row -- this is not about some butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil.

It is about older weather statistics deteriorating rapidly in predictive value, models that rely on them and associated paradigms too much, the consequent breakdown in forecasting ability that comes with rapid climate change, and the meteorologists who can't admit to any of it.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Tor Bejnar on February 04, 2016, 07:49:39 PM
Quote
DROUGHT:
No respite for Southwest as weather patterns shift -- study
Scott Streater, E&E reporter
Published: Thursday, February 4, 2016

Changing weather patterns are resulting in decreased rainfall and worsening drought conditions across the southwestern United States, and the trend is likely to continue well into the late 21st century, according to a new federal study.

The study, which analyzed weather patterns across the country over a 35-year period between 1979 and 2014, found that, in the Southwest, weather patterns that typically produce moisture are becoming increasingly rare.

The study, published online today in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, was led by researchers with the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
...
(I know 'nobody' trusts E&E, but I can read it at work.)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: wili on February 04, 2016, 07:56:19 PM
I guess I'm not following the qvetch here, ATeam...a couple locations didn't get quite the rain that we would have usually expected in an El Nino year, so it's ok for people to through out the entire science of climate change?? Aren't all El Nino's a bit different? Shouldn't we expect all 'normal' patterns to act more and more abnormally (and in more and more unpredictable ways) as GW screws up everything? Your rant is sounding a bit like the old canard that says, "The weatherman said it was going to rain today, but it didn't, so the theory of AGW is a hoax!"

Please tell me I'm missing something.

Even long term predictions for precise locations can be very difficult. As Jim pointed out, the over-all prediction for the SW under GW is that it will further dry out. That's what's happening. So what's the problem (besides that it means pretty much everyone there is going to have to move or die!).

And yes, of course the Hot Blob or RRR or whatever is a huger wrench in the system. It was not predicted so it wasn't put into predictions of other things.

Again, complaining about people pointing to it as a partial explanation for irregularities in these cycles sounds a lot like denialists that whine about people pointing to irregularities in the jet stream to account for cold outbreaks and snows into the far south. I don't take you for a denialist, so perhaps again you could tell me what I'm missing.



Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: sedziobs on February 04, 2016, 10:48:00 PM
Your rant is sounding a bit like the old canard that says, "The weatherman said it was going to rain today, but it didn't, so the theory of AGW is a hoax!"
Please tell me I'm missing something.

I believe A-Team is satirizing the response of the uninitiated to a blown forecast.  He is cautioning that publicizing (and indeed acting upon) low-confidence forecasts is likely to instill doubt about more rigorous high-confidence climate projections.  Your statement in quotes is not what A-Team thinks, it's what he is worried about.  And he is saying that some well-intending people in positions of leadership are perhaps not considering the potential consequences of their words and actions.

At least that is my interpretation of A-Team's comments.   
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 05, 2016, 02:34:29 AM
Your rant is sounding a bit like the old canard that says, "The weatherman said it was going to rain today, but it didn't, so the theory of AGW is a hoax!"
Please tell me I'm missing something.

I believe A-Team is satirizing the response of the uninitiated to a blown forecast.  He is cautioning that publicizing (and indeed acting upon) low-confidence forecasts is likely to instill doubt about more rigorous high-confidence climate projections.  Your statement in quotes is not what A-Team thinks, it's what he is worried about.  And he is saying that some well-intending people in positions of leadership are perhaps not considering the potential consequences of their words and actions.

At least that is my interpretation of A-Team's comments.

If your interpretation is correct, then the disruption caused by taking early action would need to be worse than the mitigation delay sensitivity (MDS) consequences cited in the linked (open access) reference, in order to be truly counterproductive.  Is it really a good idea to preserve one's ego (or good reputation) at the expense of future generations paying a consequence bill many times higher than the consequence we are already seeing today?  That said, I have no problem with pointing out excessive reporting by the press (or meteorologists, or other quasi-authoritarian figures).


Patrik L Pfister and Thomas F Stocker (21 January 2016), "Earth system commitments due to delayed mitigation", Environ. Res. Lett. 11 (2016) 014010, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/1/014010


http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/1/014010/pdf (http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/1/014010/pdf)

Abstract: "As long as global CO2 emissions continue to increase annually, long-term committed Earth system changes grow much faster than current observations. A novel metric linking this future growth to policy decisions today is the mitigation delay sensitivity (MDS), but MDS estimates for Earth system variables other than peak temperature (ΔTmax) are missing. Using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity, we show that the current emission increase rate causes a ΔTmax increase roughly 3–7.5 times as fast as observed warming, and a millenial steric sea level rise (SSLR) 7–25 times as fast as observed SSLR, depending on the achievable rate of emission reductions after the peak of emissions. These ranges are only slightly affected by the uncertainty range in equilibrium climate sensitivity, which is included in the above values. The extent of ocean acidification at the end of the century is also strongly dependent on the starting time and rate of emission reductions. The preservable surface ocean area with sufficient aragonite supersaturation for coral reef growth is diminished globally at an MDS of roughly 25%–80% per decade. A near-complete loss of this area becomes unavoidable if mitigation is delayed for a few years to decades. Also with respect to aragonite, 12%–18% of the Southern Ocean surface become undersaturated per decade, if emission reductions are delayed beyond 2015–2040.Weconclude that the consequences of delaying global emission reductions are much better captured if the MDS of relevant Earth system variables is communicated in addition to current trends and total projected future changes."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 05, 2016, 02:38:59 AM
Per the attached image issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -15.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on February 05, 2016, 05:02:49 AM
As for ASLRs earlier comment about starting to act in the -80's, connecting with Tor post about drought in the southwest and earlier comments. Here's what Manabe said back then. The clip is at the end.
http://youtu.be/2iKF-hWUOHk (http://youtu.be/2iKF-hWUOHk)
Personally I started to listen in the early -90's and then rolled on for another decade with a positive attitude. In the early naughties I started to get annoyed. Now it's 2016 and we still do not see an effort worth mentioning.

I wonder what Syukuro Manabe is thinking nowadays, considering the papers he wrote in the -60's.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on February 05, 2016, 05:55:31 AM
The forums here have been well balanced and informative. By mid-March though, we may need to replace the aftermath forum with an undermath forum, lessons learned from failure and all that.
You can call this thread whatever you want. Personally I might even call it the 2014/15/16 AGW-induced El Nino and it's aftermath, since I'm not only looking at USA's classifications. And this is the aftermath of it, no matter how it plays out. But if you wish, delete that last part as well.
Quote
Edit: I should have made clear to folks overseas that this is not about our backyards being dry. It is about the Pacific Ocean weather systems that furnish most of the water to North America. And -- with the still-mysterious RRR forming up five years in a row -- this is not about some butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil.
As a European, I do feel there's a slight imbalance in the threads of this forum at times. There's a whole world out there, it's more like the US of the World. Some Americans in here are very good at keeping a broader perspective though.
Weather is chaos. That's why every supercomputer built so far has been more or less obsolete from start. Now we're waiting for this:
http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2015/escape-project-set-prepare-new-era-supercomputing (http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2015/escape-project-set-prepare-new-era-supercomputing) and when that one becomes operational it will be insufficent as well.
Quote
It is about older weather statistics deteriorating rapidly in predictive value, models that rely on them and associated paradigms too much, the consequent breakdown in forecasting ability that comes with rapid climate change, and the meteorologists who can't admit to any of it.
Yes, it has been noted several times in these threads that the dynamic models have had better skill than the statistically corrected ones.
As for meteorologists, there are a number of good ones out there, not all of them blindly follow the operational and corrected model outputs.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 05, 2016, 09:41:46 AM
The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) for the last 3-month period (November-December-January average) came in at  +2.31°C, exceeding the maximum ONI value of the 1997-1998 El Nino event by about 0.05°C:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml)

Well, I guess that from NOAA's point of view this makes our current El Nino the "King of the Super El Ninos", or possibly the "King of the Monsters" aka Godzilla.  However, from my point of view to be a Godzilla event the peak ONI would need to be above 2.5.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Buddy on February 05, 2016, 01:41:51 PM
Quote
Well, I guess that from NOAA's point of view this makes our current El Nino the "King of the Super El Ninos", or possibly the "King of Monsters" aka Godzilla.

It will be interesting to see how high this will push surface temperatures in the atmosphere over the coming year.  Could be substantial...
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 05, 2016, 04:35:51 PM
Quote
Well, I guess that from NOAA's point of view this makes our current El Nino the "King of the Super El Ninos", or possibly the "King of Monsters" aka Godzilla.

It will be interesting to see how high this will push surface temperatures in the atmosphere over the coming year.  Could be substantial...

The attached UK Met Office projection considers Earth System states (like the ENSO phase, etc.) to make more accurate decadal-level projections than the AR5 projections, and it shows a marked increase in the rate of global mean surface temperature rise from 2016 to 2020 (blue shaded area) as compared to the AR5 forecasts (green shaded area):
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: JimD on February 05, 2016, 04:36:47 PM
Quote
most people are only interested in what affects them specifically ... in Prescott AZ

.........
AZ is in fact having an exceedingly dry winter (if by AZ you include Phoenix and Tucson). The main topic of conversation around here is the rain we had back in October (neither monsoonal nor nino). And we're looking at another ten days with no change, mid February temperatures in the low 80's (28.3ºC) to evaporate whatever soil moisture might still be around.

I would echo JimD on the the mickeymouse around 'average' rainfall. Same story in Tucson ... look at those older numbers, scratch your head, watch the cactus turn yellow and the CA joshua trees fall over, wonder how the old-timers ranched creosote bush, and imagine how things would look like if we ever saw average rain years again.........


Edit: I should have made clear to folks overseas that this is not about our backyards being dry. It is about the Pacific Ocean weather systems that furnish most of the water to North America. And -- with the still-mysterious RRR forming up five years in a row -- this is not about some butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil.

It is about older weather statistics deteriorating rapidly in predictive value, models that rely on them and associated paradigms too much, the consequent breakdown in forecasting ability that comes with rapid climate change, and the meteorologists who can't admit to any of it.

Funny you should quote it that way.  Since.....

I agree pretty much with your post but the point about this being an exceedingly dry winter for AZ is not accurate for the state as a whole.  Remember that Phoenix/Tuscon/Yuma are in the south of the state and though perceptions in the cities are that they are all there is to AZ that is far from accurate.    The mid and north of the state have seen significant precipitation.  Snowpack in the high country is mostly running from 110-150% of normal.  While Dec was pretty dry in the south, Jan was not as you can see from the 2nd link Tuscon and Phoenix overall received pretty much normal precip for the month.  Feb is all TBD still but the mid and north of the state got big snowfalls already this month.

http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/story/31139732/el-nino-hitting-hard-to-our-north (http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/story/31139732/el-nino-hitting-hard-to-our-north)

http://rainlog.org/usprn/html/main/maps.jsp (http://rainlog.org/usprn/html/main/maps.jsp)

http://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/tucson/arizona/united-states/usaz0247 (http://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/tucson/arizona/united-states/usaz0247)

http://www.usclimatedata.com/climate.php?location=USAZ0166 (http://www.usclimatedata.com/climate.php?location=USAZ0166)

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 05, 2016, 04:58:33 PM
As Sleepy would like more international discussion in this thread, and many people do not look in the "But, but India" thread, I repost the first attached image from that thread that shows that the Indian monsoons tend to collapse during weak El Ninos, and per the second attached NOAA corrected Nino 3.4 forecast issued February 5, 2016, there is a reasonable chance of a weak to moderate El Nino in the second half of 2016 (which might, or might not, extend into the beginning of 2017).  If such a scenario were to occur the suffering in both India and Bangladesh would be severe:


https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/enso-and-indian-monsoon%E2%80%A6-not-straightforward-you%E2%80%99d-think (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/enso-and-indian-monsoon%E2%80%A6-not-straightforward-you%E2%80%99d-think)

Caption for the first attached image: "Comparison of the Oceanic Niño Index to Indian monsoon rainfall from 1950-2012. La Niña years are blue, neutral years are gray, and El Niño years are red. El Niño years tend to be drier than average, but the strongest El Niño of the century (1997-98) produced a monsoon season with above-average rainfall. Graph adapted from Kumar et al. 2006."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 05, 2016, 08:22:17 PM
While the contribution of the current El Nino to the GMST is discussed extensively in the "Global Surface Air Temperatures" thread, I provide the following link that indicates that about 8-10% of the GISTEMP for 2015, and about 25% of the GISTEMP for 2016, was/will-be due to the current El Nino:

https://www.skepticalscience.com/how-much-el-nino-boost-2015-temp.html (https://www.skepticalscience.com/how-much-el-nino-boost-2015-temp.html)

Extract: "A quick comparison of either Schmidt or Cropper’s numbers with NASA’s temperature anomaly for 2015 of 0.87C above the 1951-1980 average suggests El Niño contributed about 8-10%.

That percentage will change, however, depending on the choice of historical baseline. Using a more recent baseline of 1980-2010 makes the El Niño contribution to 2015’s global temperature appear larger – around 16%. Compared to a period indicative of preindustrial times (1880-1900), however, the contribution from El Niño contribution comes out lower – around 6%.

...

As Scaife told Carbon Brief last week, the boost to global temperature in 2016 is likely to be more in the region of 25%. He explains further today:


The forecast for next year is about 0.8C above the 1961-1990 baseline. About 0.2 of that is likely to come from El Niño, hence the 25%.

There’s no doubt the El Niño that developed in 2015, which is still underway, has been abnormally strong, exceptional even. But with a contribution somewhere around the 10% mark, it seems clear from scientists that El Niño can’t be blamed for 2015’s record warmth. In fact, its contribution was strikingly small."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 05, 2016, 08:31:41 PM
The linked open access reference indicates that the US Southwest may have already been pushed into a long-term drought cycle due to climate change, that is only partially disrupted by the current El Nino
Andreas F. Prein, Gregory J. Holland, Roy M. Rasmussen, Martyn P. Clark & Mari R. Tye (2016), "Running dry: The U.S. Southwest's drift into a drier climate state", Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066727


http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL066727/abstract?campaign=wlytk-41855.5282060185 (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL066727/abstract?campaign=wlytk-41855.5282060185)

Abstract: "Changes in precipitation have far-reaching consequences on human society and ecosystems as has been demonstrated by recent severe droughts in California and the Oklahoma region. Droughts are beside tropical cyclones the most costly weather and climate related extreme events in the U.S. We apply a weather type (WT) analysis to reanalysis data from 1979–2014 that characterize typical weather conditions over the contiguous United States. This enables us to assign precipitation trends within 1980–2010 to changes in WT frequencies and changes in precipitation intensities. We show that in the North Atlantic and Midwest region precipitation intensity changes are the major driver of increasing precipitation trends. In the U.S. Southwest, however, WT frequency changes lead to a significant precipitation decrease of up to −25% related to an increase in anticyclonic conditions in the North East Pacific. This trend is partly counteracted by increasing precipitation intensities."

See also:
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/southwest-drier-climate-change-19990 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/southwest-drier-climate-change-19990)
Extract: "The Southwest is already the most arid part of the U.S. Now new research indicates it’s becoming even more dry as wet weather patterns, quite literally, dry up.
The change could herald a pattern shift and raises the specter of megadrought in the region.
“We see a very intense trend in the Southwest,” Andreas Prein, a postdoctoral researcher at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said. “The Southwest might already have drifted into a drier climate state.”"
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 05, 2016, 10:53:09 PM
The first images & associated Extract for Feb 5 2016 indicates that the MEI increased slightly & is staying in third place:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/)

Extract: "In the context of strong El Niño conditions since March-April 2015, this section features a comparison figure with the classic set of strong El Niño events during the MEI period of record.

Compared to last month, the updated (December-January) MEI has increased slightly (by 0.08) to +2.20, continuing at the 3rd highest  ranking, and 0.3 to 0.5 sigma behind 1998 and 1983, respectively, for this season. The August-September 2015 value of +2.53 remains the third highest overall at any time of year since 1950. The evolution of the 2015-16 El Niño remains very similar to 1997, as monitored by the MEI, including a first peak in August-September and subsequent weakening during the remainder of the calendar year. In 1998, this was followed by a second peak in late boreal winter 0.2-0.3 sigma higher than in December-January.

Looking at the nearest 6 rankings (+2/-4) in this season gives us four 'analogues' already identified three months ago: 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, and 1997-98, plus 1957-58 and 1991-92. Two of these six analogues evolved into La Niña events one year later (1973-74 and '98-99), two of them ended up neutral ('83-84 and '65-66), and two hung onto weak El Niño conditions ('58-59 and '92-93)."

The second image show NOAA's Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for Jan 28 2016, showing the Pacific Ocean is still in an El Nino pattern.

The third image shows the ECMF MJO forecast from Feb 5 to 19 2016, indicating that for the next couple of weeks the MJO will be mildly disruptive to El Nino conditions; while after that period the MJO might (or might not) become constructive for El Nino conditions.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on February 05, 2016, 11:02:34 PM
The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) for the last 3-month period (November-December-January average) came in at  +2.31°C, exceeding the maximum ONI value of the 1997-1998 El Nino event by about 0.05°C:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml)

Well, I guess that from NOAA's point of view this makes our current El Nino the "King of the Super El Ninos", or possibly the "King of Monsters" aka Godzilla.

0.05°C is a small difference, so I would guess that the 2015 and 1997 El Nino events can be considered to be practically tied in terms of their maximum ONI values.

Moreover, it looks like the current ONI values are not corrected for the long-term warming trend between e.g. 1997 and 2015.  So they are not properly detrended.

The ONI website says the following about detrending:


Quote
There will be multiple centered 30-year base periods that will be used to define the Oceanic Niño index (as a departure from average or "anomaly"). These 30-year base periods will be used to calculate the anomalies for successive 5-year periods in the historical record

So, ONI values during 1950-1955 will be based on the 1936-1965 base period, ONI values during 1956-1960 will be based on the 1941-1970 base period, and so on and so forth.

In real-time operations, the past 30-year base period (e.g. 1981-2010) will continue to be used to compute the departure from average. However, CPC will create an additional 30-year base period every 5 years instead of every 10 years (the next update will be at the beginning of 2016). When these 5 year updates occur, the ONI values over the most recent decade will change slightly because of the inclusion of more recent data.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_change.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_change.shtml)


So it looks like the ONI values for the last 10 to 15 years are somewhat provisory, and will be revised a few times in the future when the baseline is updated.  If I understand correctly, the following baselines are currently used for the ONI values for the super El Nino years 1982, 1997 and 2015 respectively:

1982 values:  centered baseline 1966-1995
1997 values:  centered baseline 1981-2010
2015 values:  provisory baseline 1981-2010 (to be replaced in the future by baseline 1996-2025)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 05, 2016, 11:08:11 PM
Moreover, it looks like the current ONI values are not corrected for the long-term warming trend between e.g. 1997 and 2015.  So they are not properly detrended.

If one is trying to understand the oscillatory behavior of the ENSO then detrending is important.  However, if one is concerned with the contribution of the Equatorial Pacific to ECS (via deep atmospheric convention) then it is better not to detrend.  It all depend on what you are concerned about.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 05, 2016, 11:20:33 PM
You can compare the attached TAO image of the Eq Pacific Subsurface Temp Anom for Feb 5 2016; with that shown in Reply #169 for Jan 29 2016.  This comparison indicates that the downwelling phase of the EKW has moved eastward which is allowing cooler deep water from follow along behind it.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 06, 2016, 02:38:21 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -15.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on February 06, 2016, 05:58:14 AM
When looking at NOAA's weekly SST data, it's now over a year ago since they reported negative anomalies for the Nino4 region. And the last time it was at -0.5° (or lower) was in April 4:th, 2013.

Now there's only five individual runs below 0° in the attached Nino4 forecast from CFSv2, the trend has been that the demize of this event has been pushed forwards and it's becoming more and more likely that we will not have a La Nina at all this year.

It will be really interesting to see the plumes from ECMWF for February.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on February 06, 2016, 06:28:38 AM
Reconnecting to ASLRs Reply #210 and my own previous Reply #205.
More people will probably die from this event, as it is, than the entire Californian population.

And if we were to see a follow up to this event like in the early 90's, (Reply #136) it would be truly awful.
Let us hope, we do not.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 07, 2016, 02:38:49 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -14.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: A-Team on February 07, 2016, 12:04:32 PM
Quote
#212 notes an article to the effect the US Southwest has already been pushed into a long-term drought cycle that is 'only partially disrupted by the current El Nino'.
This article is an easy read and recommended, a refreshing change from the daily drivel attributing every sneeze in Seattle to El Nino. They classify 35 years of reanalysis using PCA and k-means into 12 weather types to separate precipitation trends due to changes in the frequency of weather types out from changes in precipitation intensity.

Running dry: The U.S. Southwest's drift into a drier climate state
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL066727/full (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL066727/full) free full text )

Quote
The annual WT frequencies are not correlated  with large-scale climate indices such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation or the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (correlation coefficients are typically below ±0.3 and insignificant). The highest correlation coefficients are found for detrended time series of the Arctic Oscillation Index and WT3 and WT4 frequencies. The correlation coefficients between the frequencies of WTs with significant decreasing trends  with ERA-Interim SST are typically low indicating that their decrease is not related to SST variability.
El Nino meteorologists haven't just "missed a one-off local forecast," they've missed the whole Pacific Ocean for the NH. It's evident that no one can demonstrate even a first-order grip on tele-effects. No doubt they're there and consequential in some areas in some years but -- despite the non-stop claims -- they have not been shown to be a significant consideration for NA in 2016. So did this get to be textbook level received wisdom?

I wonder how much of this is attributable to 'nature deficit disorder', too much time at the terminal, not enough sticking heads outside. I saw this coming in early December, how was this possible. We run triplicate calibrated rain gauges on our property. Out to March 1st, I would say it's way drier than average over a huge swath of the Southwest, even if you let your average be dominated by the last 15 years of drought (the new way of covering up climate change).

My challenge remains open: I give you 30 years of double-blinded NH data, you tell me which years were El Ninos and how strong. Most of these 2016 El Nino attributions in NA are pure bunkum, fully attributable to psychological suggestion. It's the same with La Nina, every sunny day was only to be expected.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: LRC1962 on February 07, 2016, 03:10:01 PM
A-Team: I believe it was something quite simple.  They opened up their historical understanding of what happens during an El Nino year. Plugged in the numbers for their prediction of the strength of the ENSO. Then said this is what will happen.
The hot blob off Alaska was completely ignored or for some reason thought it was going to completely over whelmed by the ENSO. The cold blob off Greenland did not even hit the radar and the the slowing down of the jet stream resulting the the TTT-RRR effects of the last few years for some reason also was ignored.
Just because you have a perceived understanding of a climatic event, you must still include in you understanding what is happening globally.
 Oceans are heating up, the ASI is disappearing, the Gulf stream is slowing down and changing its path, the NH jet stream is increasing its waviness and slowing down because the temperature differences between equator and pole is getting smaller. All these factors must redefine what is normal. Until that happens. Weather forcastors are going to look worse and worse.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 07, 2016, 05:21:16 PM
I provide the following ENSO information from the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, UCAR, & the National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR:

https://www2.ucar.edu/news/backgrounders/el-nino-la-nina-enso

Extract: "The maps at right {first image} show the most common teleconnections associated with El Niño and La Niña during northern summer and winter. Not every warm- or cool-water event will produce all of these impacts, because other atmospheric features interact with each ENSO event to influence weather and climate around the globe. Weaker events, in particular, may look quite different from the prototypes shown here. El Niño Modoki events (where the warming is concentrated further to the west than usual) show significant differences in teleconnections from other El Niño events.

In the United States, a strong El Niño event tends to produce milder- and drier-than-average conditions toward the north and cooler- and wetter-than-average conditions to the south. In California, a strong El Niño very often brings more moisture than usual. However, during the weakest El Niño events, San Francisco and Los Angeles are a bit more likely to be unusually dry than unusually wet. (Meteorologist Jan Null maintains a compilation of additional El Niño “myths and realities.”)

Do El Niño and La Niña influence global temperature?

During El Niño, a deep pool of warm water usually restricted to the western tropical Pacific is replaced by a much larger, more shallow pool of warm water that covers most or all of the tropical Pacific. The expanded zone of warm sea surface temperatures allows more heat to be conveyed from the ocean into the atmosphere for months at a time. As a result, globally averaged temperatures often rise by a few tenths of a degree Fahrenheit during the latter stages of a strong El Niño event. Conversely, global temperatures can drop by a similar amount during a La Niña event.

NCAR scientist Kevin Trenberth has likened El Niño to a “pressure valve” that releases built-up heat from the oceans into the atmosphere. The oceans cool during El Niño events, while the global atmosphere warms.

Scientists often account for ENSO by factoring out these bumps and dips in global temperature when analyzing the long-term trends related to climate change. For example, the first 15 years of this century saw more La Niña than El Niño influence, and global air temperatures showed little rise. Prior to that period, in the 1980s and 1990s, when El Niño events were more frequent, global temperatures rose more sharply.

The map at right {second image} shows year-to-year fluctuations in global temperature (in red), the long-term trend of rising global temperature (in black), and the starts and stops of all ENSO events (shaded vertical bars). Note that other factors also influence global temperature, such as the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. The volcano threw enough sun-blocking material into the atmosphere to cause a drop in global temperatures during 1992, despite the presence of El Niño.
Shifts in global temperature, as well as in the likelihood of ENSO events, are closely associated with the state of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a pattern of ocean temperatures that reverses every 20-30 years. More La Niña events tend to be observed when the PDO is negative, and more El Niño events when it is positive. Scientists are not yet sure what prompts the PDO to shift modes."


Caption for first image: "These maps show the most commonly experienced impacts related to El Niño (“warm episode,” top) and La Niña (“cold episode,” bottom) during the period December to February, when both phenomena tend to be at their strongest. (El Niño and La Niña images courtesy NWS/NCEP Climate Prediction Center.)"

Caption for second image: "The red line above shows surface temperatures (over land and ocean), in a running 12-month average, as calculated by NOAA. The vertical, shaded bars indicate El Niño (buff) and La Niña (sky blue) periods, based on Niño3.4 SST (sea surface temperature) anomalies. These anomalies appear in red (warm) and blue (cool) in the lower panel. (Figure 6, “An apparent hiatus in global warming?” Kevin E. Trenberth and John T. Fasullo, Earth’s Future, 2013.)"
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 07, 2016, 05:34:11 PM
While the ENSO cycle is a textbook example of a chaotic system, the linked article offers another attempt to explain global connections.  I separately note that the next generation of climate models should be better at identifying the interactions of the ENSO and climate change:

http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2016/02/02/el-nino-and-global-warming-whats-the-connection/ (http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2016/02/02/el-nino-and-global-warming-whats-the-connection/)

Extract: "“We have to think climate change will influence El Niño in some way and will impact its impacts,” said Goddard. “But how El Niño events themselves change because of global warming? It’s hard to say, and harder to observe because there is so much variation in El Niño by itself from decade to decade. It’s a tough question to answer.”
Scientists are working on it, however. One of the World Climate Research Programme’s CLIVAR (Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change) projects is bringing together scientists from around the world to study “ENSO in a Changing Climate.”  CLIVAR says that it has not been possible to determine how ENSO will be affected by changes in coming decades because there has not been long and comprehensive enough observation of ENSO phenomena, and because the ability of computers to model the complex interplay of the many ocean and atmospheric processes involved in ENSO is limited. The project’s goal is to better understand how different physical processes influence ENSO and the variability of El Niño events over decades.
This research is critical, because future El Niño events will unfold against the background of global warming. Michael Jarraud, former secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, warned that El Niño could be “playing out in uncharted territory.” “This naturally occurring El Niño event and human induced climate change may interact and modify each other in ways we have never before experienced,” said Jarraud."

See also:
http://www.clivar.org/research-foci/enso (http://www.clivar.org/research-foci/enso)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: andy_t_roo on February 07, 2016, 10:40:00 PM
When looking at NOAA's weekly SST data, it's now over a year ago since they reported negative anomalies for the Nino4 region. And the last time it was at -0.5° (or lower) was in April 4:th, 2013.

Now there's only five individual runs below 0° in the attached Nino4 forecast from CFSv2, the trend has been that the demize of this event has been pushed forwards and it's becoming more and more likely that we will not have a La Nina at all this year.

It will be really interesting to see the plumes from ECMWF for February.

Given that the world as a whole has warmed, isn't an average of 0.5 indicative of just a shift in the mean,  and not an excess buildup of heat in only 1 specific area? 

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 07, 2016, 11:11:37 PM
According to most authorities the rate of increase of anthropogenic CO2 emissions is slowing down; however, per the attached Mauna Loa plot the most recent three days in February 2016 atmospheric concentrations have been about 4.35ppm above the same time last year.  Is it possible/probable that the combination of both global warming and a Super El Nino is triggering positive CO2 emission feedbacks?

Edit: The second attached image provides the associated numbers:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 08, 2016, 02:23:25 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -13.1:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: plinius on February 08, 2016, 02:54:54 AM
Looks like the eastern pacific is quickly turning in direction of La Nina
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.atmos.albany.edu%2Fstudent%2Fventrice%2Freal_time%2FtimeLon%2Fu.anom.30.5S-5N.gif&hash=4e02dc49a12de3548e6a8589ce630eed)

@AbruptSLR: Pretty negligible as a feedback, but yes, El Nino reduces the absorption of CO2 into the ocean temporarily.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on February 08, 2016, 08:19:31 AM
Plinius: i'm not so sure about that. Sure, the easterlies will dominate this week but the MJO is moving to the western Pacific, which virtually all models agree about, and in about 10 days or so a new WWB should emerge. By the same time, the easterlies are foreseen to weaken, especially by week 3-4 according to NOAA CFSv2: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/ (http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: crandles on February 08, 2016, 12:00:14 PM
When looking at NOAA's weekly SST data, it's now over a year ago since they reported negative anomalies for the Nino4 region. And the last time it was at -0.5° (or lower) was in April 4:th, 2013.

Now there's only five individual runs below 0° in the attached Nino4 forecast from CFSv2, the trend has been that the demize of this event has been pushed forwards and it's becoming more and more likely that we will not have a La Nina at all this year.

It will be really interesting to see the plumes from ECMWF for February.

Given that the world as a whole has warmed, isn't an average of 0.5 indicative of just a shift in the mean,  and not an excess buildup of heat in only 1 specific area?

Ocean surface temperature trend rates over 1979 to 2012 per IPCC AR5:
0.072 ± 0.024 °C per decade per HadISST to 0.124 ± 0.030 °C per decade per HadSST3

Even taking fastest rate, tropical ocean regions will be warming more slowly, so .5°C is certainly well over 40 years of trend warming and can not be considered to be caused by warmer world; it is almost entirely ENSO noise about the trend.

As to "it's becoming more and more likely that we will not have a La Nina at all this year"

CFS is only one model though we do have different initial condition ensemble. Worth seeing how other models see it?
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Firi.columbia.edu%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2016%2F01%2Ffigure4.gif&hash=3815b71085cb7b4ef69a5e2ebbeb3ac1)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 08, 2016, 12:14:00 PM
The first three images were issued today by the BoM through the week ending Feb 7 2016.  The first image shows that the Nino 3.4 has remained nearly constant at +2.09.  The second shows that the IOD remains neutral, and the third shows the Eq Pac Dateline cloud cover increasing.

The fourth image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for Feb 7 2016, showing that the Pacific Ocean remains in an El Nino pattern.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 08, 2016, 12:17:44 PM
The four attached plots where issued today by the BoM through the week ending Feb 7 2016, & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  The Nino 1, 2 & 4 indices are up slightly, while the Nino 3 index is effectively unchanged.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on February 08, 2016, 02:34:09 PM
When looking at NOAA's weekly SST data, it's now over a year ago since they reported negative anomalies for the Nino4 region. And the last time it was at -0.5° (or lower) was in April 4:th, 2013.

Now there's only five individual runs below 0° in the attached Nino4 forecast from CFSv2, the trend has been that the demize of this event has been pushed forwards and it's becoming more and more likely that we will not have a La Nina at all this year.

It will be really interesting to see the plumes from ECMWF for February.

Given that the world as a whole has warmed, isn't an average of 0.5 indicative of just a shift in the mean,  and not an excess buildup of heat in only 1 specific area?

Ocean surface temperature trend rates over 1979 to 2012 per IPCC AR5:
0.072 ± 0.024 °C per decade per HadISST to 0.124 ± 0.030 °C per decade per HadSST3

Even taking fastest rate, tropical ocean regions will be warming more slowly, so .5°C is certainly well over 40 years of trend warming and can not be considered to be caused by warmer world; it is almost entirely ENSO noise about the trend.

As to "it's becoming more and more likely that we will not have a La Nina at all this year"

CFS is only one model though we do have different initial condition ensemble. Worth seeing how other models see it?
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Firi.columbia.edu%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2016%2F01%2Ffigure4.gif&hash=3815b71085cb7b4ef69a5e2ebbeb3ac1)

That picture was posted 21:th of January by IRI and are for the Nino34 region. Not Nino4.
A quote from NOAA:
Quote
SST values in the Niño 3.4 region may not be the best choice for determining La Niña episodes but, for consistency, the index has been defined by negative anomalies in this area. A better choice might be the Niño 4 region, since that region normally has SSTs at or above the threshold for deep convection throughout the year. An SST anomaly of -0.5°C in that region would be sufficient to bring water temperatures below the 28°C threshold, which would result in a significant westward shift in the pattern of deep convection in the tropical Pacific.
Time series attached for the Nino4 region.
Also attached is the anomalous depth of the equatorial Pacific thermocline (Nino34) from here:
http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/ENSO/Time_Series/Heat_Storage_West_Pac.html (http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/ENSO/Time_Series/Heat_Storage_West_Pac.html)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 08, 2016, 04:21:13 PM
Per the linked article, Zimbabwe just declared an El Nino related drought-driven state of disaster:

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/a494195cb2994e11893223a617810691/drought-stricken-zimbabwe-declares-state-disaster (http://bigstory.ap.org/article/a494195cb2994e11893223a617810691/drought-stricken-zimbabwe-declares-state-disaster)

Extract: "Underscoring the severity of the drought linked to the El Nino weather pattern hitting much of southern Africa, Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe declared a state of disaster Thursday, with the hope of speeding up the flow of aid to needy communities.

The drought has devastated crops. The situation is especially acute in Zimbabwe, where a declining economy and rising unemployment have made life hard for many people in a country once known as a regional breadbasket."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 08, 2016, 04:34:10 PM
Per the following NOAA data, for the week centered on Feb 3 2016, the Nino 3.4 index has moved back up to +2.6 (representing a shoulder):
 
                    Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 18NOV2015     23.8 2.1     28.0 3.0     29.7 3.1     30.4 1.8
 25NOV2015     24.4 2.4     28.0 3.0     29.6 3.0     30.3 1.8
 02DEC2015     24.7 2.4     27.9 2.9     29.5 2.9     30.2 1.7
 09DEC2015     24.8 2.3     28.0 2.9     29.4 2.8     30.2 1.7
 16DEC2015     25.2 2.4     28.0 2.9     29.5 2.9     30.2 1.7
 23DEC2015     25.2 2.1     28.0 2.7     29.3 2.7     30.0 1.6
 30DEC2015     25.2 1.6     28.0 2.6     29.3 2.7     29.9 1.5
 06JAN2016     25.7 1.8     28.1 2.7     29.1 2.6     29.7 1.4
 13JAN2016     25.7 1.4     28.3 2.8     29.2 2.6     29.6 1.3
 20JAN2016     26.0 1.4     28.2 2.5     29.1 2.5     29.6 1.4
 27JAN2016     26.1 1.0     28.2 2.3     29.1 2.5     29.7 1.5
 03FEB2016     26.6 1.2     28.3 2.2     29.3 2.6     29.6 1.5

Also, the three attached images were all issued by NOAA on Feb 8 2016.  The first shows that the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom remains relatively stable, the second shows that the Eq Pac SSTA Evolution is relatively stable, and the third shows that the per the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom Evolution that the downwelling phase of the EKW is still moving eastward (and should continue to increase the values of the Nino 1 & 2 indices):
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 08, 2016, 04:40:01 PM
The first attached image shows NOAA's NCPE MJO forecast from Feb 8 to 22 2016; which is rather bullish for supporting future El Nino reinforcement in about two weeks time.

The second image shows the ECMF MJO forecast for the same period; which is markedly less bullish.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on February 08, 2016, 08:37:13 PM
The image below was tweeted today by Michael Ventrice.  It compares the sea surface temperature anomaly forecasts for July 2016 from several different models.  Most models seem to indicate a transition to La Nina-like conditions.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/696734426705850368


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CatMRNCWIAA5e0_.jpg:large)

(click on image to enlarge)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on February 08, 2016, 08:50:47 PM
There is also an interesting recent blog post by Anthony Barnston (dated 28 January 2016, but I think it hasn't been posted yet in this thread):

Will La Niña follow El Niño? What the past tells us (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/will-la-ni%C3%B1a-follow-el-ni%C3%B1o-what-past-tells-us)


Quote
...

Aside from doing this number crunching on the historical observations, there are accepted physical reasons for expecting a tendency toward La Niña the year after a significant El Niño. One of these is the delayed oscillator theory, introduced in 1988 by Suarez and Schopf.

The theory says that the low-level westerly wind anomalies, a hallmark of El Niño, not only trigger eastward-moving oceanic Kelvin waves at the equator (see Michelle’s blog), but also westward-moving waves just north and south of the equator (called Rossby waves). While Kelvin waves are pushing warm water east, these Rossby waves move cooler subsurface water toward the west. They then bounce off the western side of the tropical Pacific (around Indonesia) and have a return trip, traveling eastward near the equator.

On their eastward trip, these waves also promote cooler water, and can neutralize or reverse El Niño around 6 months after the westerly wind bursts. This cool pulse interrupts the positive feedback mechanism responsible for the growth of an El Niño, ending El Niño and promoting La Niña development.

Since stronger El Niño events often involve stronger westerly wind anomalies, these events tend to trigger stronger Rossby waves and stronger tendencies for El Niño to decay and possibly reverse after peaking at the end of a calendar year.

Based on the statistics derived from the historical data and on the more physical basis as described by delayed oscillator theory, the CPC/IRI team is expecting some cooling coming up in 2016-17. So, stay tuned to upcoming ENSO outlooks
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 09, 2016, 01:33:51 AM
The image below was tweeted today by Michael Ventrice.  It compares the sea surface temperature anomaly forecasts for July 2016 from several different models.  Most models seem to indicate a transition to La Nina-like conditions.

As noted previously, the CFSv2 projection shows weak El Nino conditions for that period.

Edit: See the attached July 2016 CFSv2 SSTA forecast plot
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 09, 2016, 02:25:29 AM
The attached plot issued today by the BoM, indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -12.2:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on February 09, 2016, 06:10:53 AM
Maybe we should note that there are still large uncertainties in our ability to forecast ENSO. The event in 82-83 took everyone by surprise and there were exactly zero forecasts for that event.
To me there's no such thing as a consensus in model outputs, some do better and some do worse, and La Nina is not a mirror image of El Nino.

Regarding the tweet by Michael Ventrice above posted by Steven, why not look into one of those models who try to do better, NMME.
Quote
As of Aug 2015, the NMME real time Nino3.4 plume has been corrected for systematic bias in the amplitude. (Correcting for mean error continues unchanged.) The model forecast anomalies have been divided by a correction factor, equal to the ratio of the models' hindcast standard deviation to the standard deviation of the IOSST observed SST (1982-2010). The correction factor is calculated for each model, start month and lead and feeds into the multi-model ensemble. For most but not all models this procedure means a reduction in amplitude of all members, and also the ensemble mean.
Attached is the latest ensemble mean from NMME. As you can see, some do indicate a La Nina but you can also see what all of them do in August. NMME does not indicate a La Nina.

Things are changing right now. Looking at, and comparing with the past won't help us much when the base state of the oceans are changing.

If we should see a follow up as in the early nineties (as previously posted), we would need a bunch of Pinatubos to keep things cool for a few years.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 09, 2016, 11:30:28 AM
There is also an interesting recent blog post by Anthony Barnston (dated 28 January 2016, but I think it hasn't been posted yet in this thread):

Will La Niña follow El Niño? What the past tells us (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/will-la-ni%C3%B1a-follow-el-ni%C3%B1o-what-past-tells-us)


While I concur with Sleepy, that in the non-stationary climatic situation that we are all in right now, looking for strict historical analogies can have its limitations; nevertheless the following extract from the Feb 5 2016 MEI report notes that when looking at only the top 6 ranked events, there is about a 33% chance of our current Super El Nino being following by a weak El Nino one year later.  Furthermore, this limited data also indicates a 33% chance of neutral conditions one year later (i.e. by the second half of 2016).


http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/)

Extract: "Looking at the nearest 6 rankings (+2/-4) in this season gives us four 'analogues' already identified three months ago: 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, and 1997-98, plus 1957-58 and 1991-92. Two of these six analogues evolved into La Niña events one year later (1973-74 and '98-99), two of them ended up neutral ('83-84 and '65-66), and two hung onto weak El Niño conditions ('58-59 and '92-93)."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 09, 2016, 04:21:27 PM
While it is doubtful that the recent high Mauna Loa CO2 concentrations are due exclusively to our current Super El Nino, it seems to me that the superposition of high global warming and our current Super El Nino may well be triggering an acceleration of net carbon loss from the tropics:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: A-Team on February 09, 2016, 04:28:14 PM
¿Dónde está El Niño?       ...      Dijeron El Niño se acerca, pero no ha pasado nada       ...     El calor no se quiere ir

That's a timely headline ... and about time. At least the excuse list hasn't dried up yet:

-- El Nino is having the predicted effects, only these big ones don't.

-- El Nino will indeed have the predicted effects, when it winds down in April.

-- It's been influencing the atmosphere exactly the same way we've seen previously, only not.

-- Jet stream has hardly budged, though 2000 km off is enough to ruin our predictions.

-- This El Nino is not too big to fail, it's too big to succeed.

http://www.latimes.com/local/weather/la-me-winter-heat-20160209-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/weather/la-me-winter-heat-20160209-story.html)

Quote
Calendar says winter, but it's hot and dry: Has El Niño abandoned LA? By this point in the winter, Southern California was supposed to be dealing with rains and flooding, not brush fires and beach weather. Yet temperatures have soared this week, breaking records in downtown Los Angeles and other locations across California, with even hotter conditions expected Tuesday.

For all the talk of monster rains from El Niño, all but three days in the last month have been dry in the Los Angeles area.

Has El Niño abandoned L.A.? It's too early to be certain. But some scientists say El Niño is operating differently than they expected — at least for Southern California. Last fall, the consensus was that El Niño would give Southern California the best chance for above-average rains and much less of a chance to Northern California. But the opposite has turned out to be true.

Southern California is still well below average rainfall, with downtown L.A. reporting 52% of normal since Oct. 1. But deluge after deluge to the north has built back the snowpack — it's 105% of normal in the Sierra Nevada [[with another 10 dry days coming, snowpack will drop well below average]] — and begun to refill drought-depleted reservoirs [[reservoir levels haven't budged]].

For Southern California, the strong El Niño "hasn't been a great predictor so far this winter," said Stanford University climate scientist Daniel Swain, and "hasn't been influencing the atmosphere in exactly the same way that we have seen."

A massive ridge of high pressure is keeping much of California dry and warm this week. In Southern California, that brought dry winds and temperatures that approached 90. A series of big El Niño-influenced storms [[bogus attribution IMO]] the first week of January left Mt. Baldy and other winter resorts with snow. But the promised "conveyor belt" of storms has not materialized since then.

But something changed this year. With the zone of warm water in the ocean particularly large and persistent, the movement of warm air above it traveled farther north than expected. That means the parade of storms zipping across the Pacific Ocean established a path over Northern California and even the Pacific Northwest — and bypassed Southern California, Swain said.

That may be the reason why all but one storm have missed L.A. over the last month. "It may be because El Niño is so strong," Swain said. The difference in the path of the jet stream is "very slight in the global context," Swain said in an interview. "But if you're in Los Angeles, that difference means a lot." 

Bill Patzert, a climatologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge, said one hypothesis is that El Niño needs to weaken before the storm track can reemerge over Southern California. In 1998, it was a weakening El Niño in January that preceded storms that pounded L.A. in February. Last month, El Niño was still extremely large and potent — about two and a half times the size of the continental United States.

In other words: "This is not too big to fail, but with regard to Southern California, it's too big to succeed," Patzert said. "I'm still saying: Be patient. In terms of getting Southern California their El Niño fix, this thing has to shrink somewhat.... So if that idea is correct, then we're looking good for March and April."

For the period from Feb. 20 to March 4, the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center forecasted a better-than-even chance of above-average rains for Southern California, given the strong El Niño condition in the ocean [[though we know now that has no predictive value]].

Even though we haven't seen El Niño pan out" in sending storms to Southern California, said specialist Stuart Seto of the National Weather Service office in Oxnard, "that still doesn't mean we can't see good rains in the latter part of February and in March." [[double negatives won't bring precip]]
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: plinius on February 09, 2016, 04:31:48 PM
@ASLR: I would point out that oceans are globally still absorbing CO2, not emitting. You can say that El Nino slows this absorption, but it does not trigger net emission (apart from fires of course).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 09, 2016, 05:36:09 PM
@ASLR: I would point out that oceans are globally still absorbing CO2, not emitting. You can say that El Nino slows this absorption, but it does not trigger net emission (apart from fires of course).

First, I note that it is well known that the primary source of CO₂ fluctuations over the ENSO cycle is due to changes in land vegetation in the tropics (from 30N to 30S), rather than due to emissions from the ocean.  Second, the first reference (and associated image) shows that there has been a two-fold increase of carbon cycle sensitivity to tropical temperature variations over the past several decades.  Third, the second reference indicates global warming is increasing the frequency of extreme El Ninos.  As strong El Ninos increase both the temperature and induce droughts in the tropics it is clear that CO₂ emissions increase from the tropical land vegetation during strong El Ninos:

Wang, X., Piao, S., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Myneni, R.B., Cox, P., Heimann, M., Miller, J., Peng, S.P., Wang, T., Yang, H. and Chen, A., (2014), "A two-fold increase of carbon cycle sensitivity to tropical temperature variations", Nature, 2014; DOI: 10.1038/nature12915.


http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v506/n7487/full/nature12915.html#extended-data (http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v506/n7487/full/nature12915.html#extended-data)

http://sites.bu.edu/cliveg/files/2014/01/wang-nature-2014.pdf (http://sites.bu.edu/cliveg/files/2014/01/wang-nature-2014.pdf)

Abstract: "Earth system models project that the tropical land carbon sink will decrease in size in response to an increase in warming and drought during this century, probably causing a positive climate feedback. But available data are too limited at present to test the predicted changes in the tropical carbon balance in response to climate change. Long-term atmospheric carbon dioxide data provide a global record that integrates the interannual variability of the global carbon balance. Multiple lines of evidence demonstrate that most of this variability originates in the terrestrial biosphere. In particular, the year-to-year variations in the atmospheric carbon dioxide growth rate (CGR) are thought to be the result of fluctuations in the carbon fluxes of tropical land areas. Recently, the response of CGR to tropical climate interannual variability was used to put a constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change. Here we use the long-term CGR record from Mauna Loa and the South Pole to show that the sensitivity of CGR to tropical temperature interannual variability has increased by a factor of 1.9 ± 0.3 in the past five decades. We find that this sensitivity was greater when tropical land regions experienced drier conditions. This suggests that the sensitivity of CGR to interannual temperature variations is regulated by moisture conditions, even though the direct correlation between CGR and tropical precipitation is weak. We also find that present terrestrial carbon cycle models do not capture the observed enhancement in CGR sensitivity in the past five decades. More realistic model predictions of future carbon cycle and climate feedbacks require a better understanding of the processes driving the response of tropical ecosystems to drought and warming."

Caption for image: " Figure 1 | Change in detrended anomalies in CGR and tropical MAT, in
dCGR/dMAT and in ªintCGR over the past five decades. a, Change in detrended CGR anomalies at Mauna Loa Observatory (black) and in detrended tropical MAT anomalies (red) derived from the CRU data set16. Tropical MAT is calculated as the spatial average over vegetated tropical lands (23uN to 23u S).  The highest correlations between detrended CGR and detrended tropicalMAT are obtained when no time lags are applied (R50.53, P,0.01). b, Change in dCGR/dMAT during the past five decades. c, Change in cintCGR during the past five decades. In b and c, different colours showdCGR/dMATor cint CGR estimated with moving time windows of different lengths (20 yr and 25 yr). Years on the horizontal axis indicate the central year of the moving time window used to derive dCGR/dMAT or cintCGR (for example, 1970 represents period 1960–1979 in the 20-yr time window). The shaded areas show the confidence interval of dCGR/dMATand cintCGR, as appropriate, derived using 20-yr or 25-yr moving windows in 500 bootstrap estimates."



Wenju Cai, Agus Santoso, Guojian Wang, Sang-Wook Yeh, Soon-Il An, Kim M. Cobb, Mat Collins, Eric Guilyardi, Fei-Fei Jin, Jong-Seong Kug, Matthieu Lengaigne, Michael J. McPhaden, Ken Takahashi, Axel Timmermann, Gabriel Vecchi, Masahiro Watanabe & Lixin Wu (2015), "ENSO and greenhouse warming", Nature Climate Change, Volume: 5, Pages: 849–859, doi:10.1038/nclimate2743


http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n9/full/nclimate2743.html (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n9/full/nclimate2743.html)

Abstract: "The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant climate phenomenon affecting extreme weather conditions worldwide. Its response to greenhouse warming has challenged scientists for decades, despite model agreement on projected changes in mean state. Recent studies have provided new insights into the elusive links between changes in ENSO and in the mean state of the Pacific climate. The projected slow-down in Walker circulation is expected to weaken equatorial Pacific Ocean currents, boosting the occurrences of eastward-propagating warm surface anomalies that characterize observed extreme El Niño events. Accelerated equatorial Pacific warming, particularly in the east, is expected to induce extreme rainfall in the eastern equatorial Pacific and extreme equatorward swings of the Pacific convergence zones, both of which are features of extreme El Niño. The frequency of extreme La Niña is also expected to increase in response to more extreme El Niños, an accelerated maritime continent warming and surface-intensified ocean warming. ENSO-related catastrophic weather events are thus likely to occur more frequently with unabated greenhouse-gas emissions. But model biases and recent observed strengthening of the Walker circulation highlight the need for further testing as new models, observations and insights become available."


See also, for input from Peter Cox:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v494/n7437/full/nature11882.html (http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v494/n7437/full/nature11882.html)

Extract: "We estimate that over tropical land from latitude 30° north to 30° south, warming alone will release 53 ± 17 gigatonnes of carbon per kelvin."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on February 09, 2016, 07:05:49 PM
the following extract from the Feb 5 2016 MEI report notes that when looking at only the top 6 ranked events, there is about a 33% chance of our current Super El Nino being following by a weak El Nino one year later.  Furthermore, this limited data also indicates a 33% chance of neutral conditions one year later (i.e. by the second half of 2016).


http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/)

Extract: "Looking at the nearest 6 rankings (+2/-4) in this season gives us four 'analogues' already identified three months ago: 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, and 1997-98, plus 1957-58 and 1991-92. Two of these six analogues evolved into La Niña events one year later (1973-74 and '98-99), two of them ended up neutral ('83-84 and '65-66), and two hung onto weak El Niño conditions ('58-59 and '92-93)."

That is a poor way to calculate probabilities.  Why are only the top 6 ranked events used (rather than, say, the top 4 or top 12 events)?  Moreover, some of those "one-year-later" events were borderline cases, whose classification depends on the precise dataset and definition that is used.  E.g. if one uses the ONI (rather than MEI) data for the 6 events mentioned above, then

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fggweather.com%2Fenso%2Foni.jpg&hash=d5b164af0639bb0614f20618924b0f6a)
http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm (http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm)


Compare with the regression analysis in Anthony Barnston's blog post (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/will-la-ni%C3%B1a-follow-el-ni%C3%B1o-what-past-tells-us):

Quote from: A. Barnston
When looking at the results for weak, moderate, and strong El Niño separately, I find an average sea surface temperature anomaly [for the Niño3.4 region] of -0.15 °C the year after the 11 weak El Niños, -0.40 °C after the 7 moderate El Niños, and -1.17 °C for the 3 strong El Niños
...
The resulting correlation is -0.31, which translates to a very weak tendency for the sea surface temperature the following year to be colder when the El Niño the first year is stronger
...
the standard error of estimate... says that the probability of getting La Niña for 2016-17 is 66%, leaving a 34% chance for falling short of the La Niña threshold... The large uncertainty of this method is why forecasters don’t just look at the past to predict the future, but also take into account other prediction tools...
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on February 09, 2016, 07:23:32 PM
Regarding the tweet by Michael Ventrice above posted by Steven, why not look into one of those models who try to do better, NMME.
Quote
As of Aug 2015, the NMME real time Nino3.4 plume has been corrected for systematic bias in the amplitude. (Correcting for mean error continues unchanged.) The model forecast anomalies have been divided by a correction factor, equal to the ratio of the models' hindcast standard deviation to the standard deviation of the IOSST observed SST (1982-2010). The correction factor is calculated for each model, start month and lead and feeds into the multi-model ensemble. For most but not all models this procedure means a reduction in amplitude of all members, and also the ensemble mean.
Attached is the latest ensemble mean from NMME. As you can see, some do indicate a La Nina but you can also see what all of them do in August. NMME does not indicate a La Nina.

The text you quoted says that the bias correction procedure usually leads to a reduction in amplitude of the forecast.  I would guess that the correction is largest near the end of the forecast period (i.e. September 2016 in this case), since the uncertainty is greatest there.  So I'm not sure if the apparent flattening of the forecast curves between July and September 2016 should be taken at face value.  Anyway, it will be interesting to compare with later updates.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 09, 2016, 07:29:01 PM
That is a poor way to calculate probabilities. 

Given that we are facing the "Spring Barrier", it is worthwhile acknowledging that all means of projecting the ENSO state in the second half of 2016 come with a high degree of uncertainty.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on February 09, 2016, 09:12:27 PM
Todays model runs for the MJO continues to be highly splitted. While NOAAs run shows an even more bullish solution than yesterday with a WWB which might go through the roof the ECMWFs runs shows just a weak WWB as MJO moves into phase 6-7.

Interestingly, ECMWFs monthly run shows that the MJO should go into phase 6-7 and possibly also phase 8 AND may stay there for a MONTH(!)

If NOAAs forecast holds we'll most likely see a strong surge in the Nino 3.4 anomaly. If not, maybe La Nina will arrive by summer?  Feels like we are going to a critical period now which should decide the outcome of ENSO state by late summer/early fall.

By the way, everyone living at the US West coast and especially in SoCal should follow this evolution closely! The CFS v2 NOAA forecast also hints a possible evolution of the Pineapple express by late February and first half of March. Well, let's see if this solution actually willevolve!
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 09, 2016, 09:42:26 PM
The linked reference indicates that the current generation of global climate models do not adequately account for ENSO behavior as compared to the paleo-record (thus indicating that we do not yet adequately understand the physics of this chaotic phenomenon):

J. Emile-Geay, K. M. Cobb, M. Carré, P. Braconnot, J. Leloup, Y. Zhou, S. P. Harrison, T. Corrège, H. V., McGregor, M. Collins, R. Driscoll, M. Elliot, B. Schneider & A. Tudhope (2016), "Links between tropical Pacific seasonal, interannual and orbital variability during the Holocene", Nature Geoscience, Volume: 9, Pages: 168–173, doi:10.1038/ngeo2608

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v9/n2/full/ngeo2608.html (http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v9/n2/full/ngeo2608.html)

Abstract: "The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual climate variability. However, it is unclear how ENSO has responded to external forcing, particularly orbitally induced changes in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle during the Holocene. Here we present a reconstruction of seasonal and interannual surface conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean from a network of high-resolution coral and mollusc records that span discrete intervals of the Holocene. We identify several intervals of reduced variance in the 2 to 7 yr ENSO band that are not in phase with orbital changes in equatorial insolation, with a notable 64% reduction between 5,000 and 3,000 years ago. We compare the reconstructed ENSO variance and seasonal cycle with that simulated by nine climate models that include orbital forcing, and find that the models do not capture the timing or amplitude of ENSO variability, nor the mid-Holocene increase in seasonality seen in the observations; moreover, a simulated inverse relationship between the amplitude of the seasonal cycle and ENSO-related variance in sea surface temperatures is not found in our reconstructions. We conclude that the tropical Pacific climate is highly variable and subject to millennial scale quiescent periods. These periods harbour no simple link to orbital forcing, and are not adequately simulated by the current generation of models."

See also:

https://news.usc.edu/89793/current-climate-models-misrepresent-el-nino/ (https://news.usc.edu/89793/current-climate-models-misrepresent-el-nino/)

Extract: "The finding contradicts the top nine climate models in use today, which associate exceptionally hot summers and cold winters with weak El Niños, and vice versa.
“The idea behind this link is based on very well-established physics, so it’s appealing to think that nature works this way. But our analysis shows that it’s not that simple,” said Julien Emile-Geay, lead author of a study contradicting the models and assistant professor of earth sciences at the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 09, 2016, 09:47:39 PM
Todays model runs for the MJO continues to be highly splitted. While NOAAs run shows an even more bullish solution than yesterday with a WWB which might go through the roof the ECMWFs runs shows just a weak WWB as MJO moves into phase 6-7.

Interestingly, ECMWFs monthly run shows that the MJO should go into phase 6-7 and possibly also phase 8 AND may stay there for a MONTH(!)

If NOAAs forecast holds we'll most likely see a strong surge in the Nino 3.4 anomaly. If not, maybe La Nina will arrive by summer?  Feels like we are going to a critical period now which should decide the outcome of ENSO state by late summer/early fall.

By the way, everyone living at the US West coast and especially in SoCal should follow this evolution closely! The CFS v2 NOAA forecast also hints a possible evolution of the Pineapple express by late February and first half of March. Well, let's see if this solution actually willevolve!

For some reason this morning I forgot to post the two attached MJO forecasts from Feb 9 to 23 2016, for the NCPE and ECMF ensembles, respectively, but they support your post:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 10, 2016, 02:36:06 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -12.2:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 10, 2016, 04:40:07 PM
The first image shows the GFS Ensemble (NCPB - biases corrected) MJO forecast from Feb 10 to 24 2016, indicating that by Feb 17 the MJO may (or may not) be in position to start reinforcing El Nino conditions (was as at the moment it is suppressing El Nino reinforcement).

The second image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Feb 10 to 17, 2016; which supports the idea that by Feb 17 2016, the MJO may well be in position to start reinforcing (instead of suppressing) El Nino conditions.

Edit: The third & fourth images show MJO forecasts from Feb 10 to 24 2016 for the NCPE (uncorrected), and the ECMF (uncorrected) ensembles, respectively.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: plinius on February 10, 2016, 06:57:30 PM
@ASLR: You are muddling _land_ based estimates with the more important ocean balance.

What concerns Nino and Super-Nino frequency in times of climate change. I will believe it, when I see it in the data. With all my awe for modern climate modelling, that is just outside the prediction accuracy.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 10, 2016, 08:30:12 PM
@ASLR: You are muddling _land_ based estimates with the more important ocean balance.

What concerns Nino and Super-Nino frequency in times of climate change. I will believe it, when I see it in the data. With all my awe for modern climate modelling, that is just outside the prediction accuracy.

No one is perfect; however, I offer the attached images and following linked pdf to indicate that:
1.  The Land CO₂ sink is much more variable than the Ocean CO₂ sink.
2.  The ENSO has a pronounced influence on the Land CO₂ sink particularly with regard to tropical rainforests.
3. Climate change is threatening the carbon cycle in tropical rainforests with a possible tipping point.

http://biogeomod.net/talks/P_Cox_4_10_2011.pdf (http://biogeomod.net/talks/P_Cox_4_10_2011.pdf)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 11, 2016, 03:28:41 PM
The attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -11.2:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 11, 2016, 03:48:27 PM
The first linked article discusses wildfires in the Amazon in 2015, as well as pending legislation that would legalize more deforestation.  While our current El Nino brought the drought & high regional temperatures, most of these fires were ignited by people and this trend is likely to continue.  Furthermore, I note that the wildfire season in Indonesia should start again in March

http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_round_up/2986882/brazil_as_forest_fires_rage_new_laws_will_open_gates_of_hell.html (http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_round_up/2986882/brazil_as_forest_fires_rage_new_laws_will_open_gates_of_hell.html)

Extract: "New laws passing through Congress will encourage deforestation by removing safeguards and opening up indigenous territories to mega-projects. Serious drought is already contributing to a big increase in forest fires.
Almost a quarter of a million forest fires were detected in Brazil last year - and the main cause of a huge increase is being attributed to climate change that brought about a year-long drought in much of the country.
Satellite data revealed a 27.5% increase in forest fires in 2015 compared with the previous year.



"This (2015) was a year with less rain, and hotter than the historic average, especially in central Brazil, in the south of the Amazon region and in parts of the Northeast. Some regions registered temperatures 4°C above the average."
These conditions favour the spread of fires, but Dr Setzer emphasises that it was not spontaneous combustion that caused the fires. "It was human activity, whether carelessness or deliberate", he says.

The increase in forest fires contributed to the general 16% increase in deforestation registered in 2015. And these figures present a stark contrast to Brazil's commitment at the COP21 climate change conference in Paris last month to reduce carbon emissions by 43% by 2030.
To achieve this, the government promised it would ensure zero illegal deforestation. Yet a lot of deforestation is technically legal, thanks to changes to the country's Forest Code. Also in jarring contrast to the government's Paris commitment are two bills now under debate in Congress, which, if made law, will greatly increase 'legal' deforestation.
One will overturn the ban on infrastructure projects inside indigenous territories, with a payoff to the communities of 2% of the value of the project. The other will 'streamline' the environmental licensing system for major infrastructure projects, such as roads, mines and dams.
The existing system demands detailed environmental, anthropological and archaeological studies and public hearings before a project is given the go-ahead. Not only will this system be scrapped, it will be replaced with self-licensing by the very companies that plan to build the projects.
Studies show that most deforestation takes place around these big projects, because they open up access to previously inaccessible areas. They also show that indigenous reserves in the Amazon region tend to be far better preserved than surrounding areas.
If Congress approves both these bills, and the president sanctions them, they will actively stimulate deforestation."


See also:
http://www.pri.org/stories/2016-02-10/current-el-ni-o-may-hold-lessons-how-deal-warming-planet (http://www.pri.org/stories/2016-02-10/current-el-ni-o-may-hold-lessons-how-deal-warming-planet)

Extract: "“In some sense, what we're seeing around the world right now is an advanced view of the sort of things that we'll see more of in the future — all of the weather systems being somewhat more vigorous than they have been in the past, the risk of both droughts in some regions and flooding in other regions,” says climate scientist Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
El Niño is essentially a “mini global warming" event, Trenberth explains. It arises from a build-up of heat in the waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The warm ocean waters and higher sea levels begin in the western tropical Pacific and then spread to the central and eastern Pacific. The warm tropical ocean releases additional water vapor into the atmosphere through evaporation.
When warm air rises from the oceans to higher levels of the atmosphere, the moisture in the air “rains out,” in a process called “latent heating of condensation.” As that moisture gets released, it leads to additional warming of the air and invigorates weather systems around the world, especially in the eastern Pacific. What’s more, changes in ocean temperature become amplified over dry land, according to one study."

http://www.pri.org/stories/2016-02-10/current-el-ni-o-may-hold-lessons-how-deal-warming-planet (http://www.pri.org/stories/2016-02-10/current-el-ni-o-may-hold-lessons-how-deal-warming-planet)

Caption for image: "The atmospheric temperature above land and ocean in the tropics (relative to changes in ocean temperature). The pressure on the y-axis indicates the altitude; 1000hPa is the surface and 200hPa is 10-15km high"
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 11, 2016, 05:11:38 PM
The first two images show the MJO forecasts from Feb 11 to 25 2016 for the NCPB (GFS) and the ECMF, respectively.  They both show the active phase of the MJO is now on the move eastward towards the International Dateline.

The third image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom, which confirms that the MJO may likely start to generate moderate WWB conditions beginning on Feb 17 2016.


Edit: For comparison, I provide the fourth attached image of the NCPE (uncorrected) MJO forecast from Feb 11 to 25 2016; which is the most bullish of all the forecasts.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 11, 2016, 06:32:12 PM
That's a timely headline ... and about time. At least the excuse list hasn't dried up yet:

-- El Nino is having the predicted effects, only these big ones don't.

-- El Nino will indeed have the predicted effects, when it winds down in April.

-- It's been influencing the atmosphere exactly the same way we've seen previously, only not.

-- Jet stream has hardly budged, though 2000 km off is enough to ruin our predictions.

-- This El Nino is not too big to fail, it's too big to succeed.

Robert Scribbler provides support for your concerns that Arctic Amplification is beating the pants off a Super El Nino w.r.t. providing rainfall to the US Southwest.

http://robertscribbler.com/2016/02/10/even-a-monster-el-nino-cant-beat-the-southwest-drought/ (http://robertscribbler.com/2016/02/10/even-a-monster-el-nino-cant-beat-the-southwest-drought/)

Extract: "Quite frankly, it’s insane that we’re still seeing these conditions during a monster El Nino. These droughts should be rolling back as the storm track intensifies and hurls severe weather at the US West Coast. But that’s not what’s happening. At least not consistently. Instead, we keep getting these extreme ridge patterns in the Jet Stream over western North America. We keep getting these very warm, very dry spells of weather during the wet season. And now, we have California Snowpack melting away in February of all times.

The fact that these weather patterns emerged after the warmest January and lowest sea ice extents on record for the Arctic is a point that should not be missed by weather and climate analysts. It appears that what we are seeing is yet more evidence that polar amplification is driving a consistent high amplitude bulge in the Jet Stream over Western North America together with severe periods of warmth, dryness and snowpack melt during Winter. The hot side of a dipole pattern that is also setting up more extreme storm potentials as cold air is driven out of the Arctic along a deep trough over the Eastern US, slams into a record hot Gulf Stream, and then sets off a series of atmospheric bombs along a storm track running all the way across the North Atlantic and into Western Europe. Yet more evidence that what happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 12, 2016, 03:31:33 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -10.2:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 12, 2016, 04:59:38 PM
The first image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Feb 12 to 19 2016, showing that the forecast WWB is both sustained and strengthening.

The last three images show the MJO forecasts from Feb 12 to 26 2016, for the NCPE (uncorrected), NCPB (bias corrected), and ECMF (uncorrected), respectively.  All of these forecasts are relatively bullish for atmospheric conditions to reinforcing El Nino conditions after Feb 17 (through at least Feb 26 and well beyond).  Certainly the NOAA forecasts are more bullish than the EC forecast; however, I note that yesterday the NCPE had the most skillful one-day forecast for the MJO today.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 12, 2016, 05:32:13 PM
The linked Robert Scribbler article discusses how El Nino driven drought in Africa is causing both a major tropical wildfire outbreak (see two images) and famine.  Furthermore, I note that typically Indonesia's wildfire season typically re-starts by the end of March:

http://robertscribbler.com/2016/02/11/major-wildfire-outbreak-in-central-and-western-africa-as-drought-hunger-grow-more-widespread/ (http://robertscribbler.com/2016/02/11/major-wildfire-outbreak-in-central-and-western-africa-as-drought-hunger-grow-more-widespread/)

Extract: "Major Wildfire Outbreak in Central and Western Africa as Drought, Hunger Grow More Widespread

Central Africa is but the most recent region to feel the effects of extreme drought and related risks to food security. For through 2015 and on into early 2016, both drought and hunger grew in scope and intensity across Africa. An impact that is almost certainly related to the combined influences of a near record El Nino and global average temperatures that are now in the range of 1.1 degrees Celsius hotter those seen at the end of the 19th Century."


Caption for second attached image: (Large sections of Africa suffering from severe drought as of February 7th in the Africa Flood and Drought Monitor graphic above. Widespread areas in red show soil moisture levels hitting their lowest possible rating in the monitor over widespread regions during recent days.)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 12, 2016, 06:47:48 PM
The following data indicates that the PDO for January 2016 has increased to +1.53:

YEAR     JAN    FEB    MAR    APR    MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC
2014    0.30    0.38   0.97    1.13    1.80   0.82    0.70   0.67   1.08   1.49   1.72   2.51
2015    2.45    2.30   2.00    1.44    1.20   1.54    1.84   1.56   1.94   1.47   0.86   1.01
2016   1.53

The first image shows the NOAA Eq Pac. Upper Ocean Heat Anom circa Feb 12 2016, indicating that after a recent decline the values have plateaued again.

The second and third images show the Eq Pac. Subsurface Temp Anoms for, the NOAA Feb 7 2016 model projection, and the TAO Feb 12 2016 observed data, respectively; showing that the recent downwelling phase of the EKW has not yet dissipated.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 12, 2016, 07:06:56 PM
I note that the Lenton et al (2008) image in Reply #256 indicates that with continued global warming the Indian Monsoon should experience Chaotic Multistability; while, the linked article indicates that there is currently divided opinions about where a La Nina in the second half of 2016 will restore the Indian monsoon rainfall, or whether warm Indian Ocean temperatures will bring below-average monsoon rainfall.  I note again that a weak El Nino in the second half of 2016 might bring severe drought conditions to Indian this year:

http://www.producer.com/2016/01/could-indias-2016-monsoon-disappoint-again/ (http://www.producer.com/2016/01/could-indias-2016-monsoon-disappoint-again/)

Extract: "Conventional wisdom suggests that will lead to plentiful rain during monsoon season and increased pulse crop production for the world’s biggest pulse producer.

However, one weather observer said a warming Indian Ocean could result in the third consecutive year of below-average monsoon rainfall and another year of healthy pulse demand out of India
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 12, 2016, 08:17:40 PM
The linked article discusses how it is possible that global warming is increasing the frequency of extreme El Nino events, and indicates that this frequency may have already doubled from once every 20 years to once every 10 years & who knows whether this trend will continue:


http://e360.yale.edu/feature/el_nino_and_climate_change_wild_weather_may_get_wilder/2960/ (http://e360.yale.edu/feature/el_nino_and_climate_change_wild_weather_may_get_wilder/2960/)

Extract: "Climatologists are still calculating whether this is the biggest El Niño on record. What they do agree on is that there have now been three “super-El Niños” in the space of just over three decades — in 1982-83, 1997-98, and now 2015-16. This unusual recurrence gives weight to a forecast made by Wenju Cai of Australia’s national science agency, CSIRO, two years ago that headline-grabbing “super El Niños” were in the process of upgrading from once every 20 years to once every ten years.



Cai’s study, using 20 climate models from different research institutions that simulate Pacific Ocean conditions with and without climate change, found that this rhythm of normal El Niño cycles is unlikely to change as the world warms. But most of th e models predict that the chances of routine El Niños turning into extreme events — super El Niños — is growing strongly, with the likelihood of extremes expected to double.

Cai explains why: Big El Niños happen when the warm waters from the western Pacific push most strongly eastward. And climate change is making that easier, because temperatures in the normally cool waters along the western coasts of North and South America are rising faster than those in other parts of the oceans. So the extra heat from the west can spread further, which loads the dice in favor of major El Niño events."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 13, 2016, 02:46:01 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -9.9:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 13, 2016, 05:07:02 PM
The first image shows the U at Albany 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Feb 13 to 20 2016, showing a much more bullish forecast (for conditions reinforcing El Nino development) than yesterday's forecast.  Showing that the major WWB will start Feb 16 2016 and will strengthen thereafter.

The last three images show the MJO forecasts from Feb 13 to 27 2016 for the NCPE, NCPB, and ECMF, respectively.  These forecasts are all in general more bullish (for supporting El Nino development) than yesterday and on the one-day timeframe indicate that the NCPE has the most skill in this quadrant.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 13, 2016, 05:13:57 PM
The first two images show the Nullschool Earth forecasts for Feb 17 2016 for the 850-hPa Wind & MSLP; and for the 250-hPa Wind & TPW, respectively.  These maps show: a WWB, a SPCZ, a negative SOI, a Walker Cell in an El Nino pattern and rain for California.

The third image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 200-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Feb 13 to 20 2016, supporting the idea that by the end of the forecast period the Walker Cell will be in an El Nino pattern.

The fourth image shows the corrected CSFv2 Nino 3.4 forecast, both showing the shoulder that I had talked about earlier, and increasing the probability that a weak El Nino may occur in the second half of 2016.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 14, 2016, 02:21:08 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -9.4:

20160114,20160212,-9.4


Edit: Here is the plot
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 14, 2016, 10:25:57 AM
Per the linked Washington Post article from Feb 10, 2016, Kevin Trenberth says that there has been little cooling of the Western Tropical Pacific during our current Super El Nino; which may help explain (to my way of thinking) why the MJO is forecast to strengthen as it crosses the Western Tropical Pacific on its way to the International Dateline:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/02/10/90-in-february-this-is-not-what-california-was-expecting-from-a-super-el-nino/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/02/10/90-in-february-this-is-not-what-california-was-expecting-from-a-super-el-nino/)

Extract: "“This El Niño has been called ‘very strong’ and one of the top-three strongest on record,” said Trenberth. “That is true if one measures it only by the warmth in the eastern tropical Pacific. But most El Niños also feature a cooling in the western tropical Pacific, and that is largely absent this year.”"
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 14, 2016, 10:33:14 AM
The attached Nullschool Earth 850-hPa Wind & TPW forecast for Feb 18 2016, shows both strong WWB near the Dateline, and rain in Southern California (apparently due to the forecasted strong MJO in the Western Tropical Pacific at that time).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 14, 2016, 05:13:30 PM
The four attached plot all show the MJO forecasts from Feb 14 to 28 2016, for the NCPE, NCPB (corrected), ECMF and ECMM (corrected), respectively.

Once again the NCPE one-day MJO forecast was the most skillful of those cited yesterday.

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 14, 2016, 05:19:32 PM
The two attached plots show the U at Albany Wind Anom forecasts from Feb 14 to 21 2016 for the 850-hPa, and the 200-hPa, cases respectively.

As the University at Albany appears to use Ventrice developed software, apparently with European Centre (ECMF) input, it is not surprising (given my last post) that these forecasts are starting the WWB earlier but with slightly lower intensity than yesterday's forecast.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 15, 2016, 03:11:32 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -9.4:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 15, 2016, 03:40:28 AM
Per the linked Climate Central (The Guardian) article, NOAA & NASA have teamed up to study our current El Nino in more detail than has ever before for major El Nino event:

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/noaa-and-nasa-team-up-investigate-el-nino-20015 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/noaa-and-nasa-team-up-investigate-el-nino-20015)

Extract: "America’s two leading climate science agencies are conducting an unprecedented survey via land, sea and air to investigate the current El Niño event and better understand its impact on weather systems that have brought both parched and soaking conditions to North America.

The project, which will conclude in March, will deploy resources from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and NASA to analyze one of the strongest El Niños on record. El Niño is a periodic phenomenon in which parts of the eastern Pacific warm, causing a ripple effect for weather around the world.

...

“A field campaign ordinarily takes years to plan and execute. But we recognized what an important opportunity we had and everyone worked hard to pull this mission together.”

NOAA said it was conducting the rapid assessment due to heightened interest over El Niño’s impact upon California, which is in the midst of a historic four-year drought. El Niño brought a slew of rain to California in December and January, prompting warnings to residents not to let their guard down in an unprecedented water conservation push.

...

While California has received some welcome rain, other parts of the US have experienced exceptionally dry and mild conditions. According to NOAA, only 5.7 percent of the Great Lakes’ surface was covered by ice as of Feb. 3, a huge drop on 2015, when 50 percent of the lakes’ surface was frozen.

The impact of El Niño has perhaps been most pernicious in Africa, with Zimbabwe declaring a state of emergency this week over a drought that has ravaged much of the south of the continent. An estimated 26 percent of Zimbabwe’s population, around 2.4 million, are now considered food insecuytre due to dying cattle and failed crops."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on February 15, 2016, 09:56:18 AM
Sou made a nice blog post (which could go in any thread in here), including a nice graph comparing El Nino years with temperature anomalies.
http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2016/02/hottest-january-on-record-with-el-nino.html#more (http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2016/02/hottest-january-on-record-with-el-nino.html#more)
Graph attached below.

I've been pondering over the SSW we had now. I noticed it on Feb 02 and made a couple of animatons, posted in the refreeze thread.
GFS: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1377.msg69378.html#msg69378 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1377.msg69378.html#msg69378)
ECMWF: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1377.msg69472.html#msg69472 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1377.msg69472.html#msg69472)

One would think that this SSW would be larger, considering the present large El Nino. But according to the following link, the larger SSW's might be more connected with weaker El Ninos like in 2009/10.
http://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2012/12119-impact-enso-european-climate.pdf (http://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2012/12119-impact-enso-european-climate.pdf)
Quote
5. Atypical events: “noise”, non-stationarity or non-linearity?
The North Atlantic/European region is highly variable from year to year due to fluctuations in the strength of the storm track and the associated NAO pattern which dominates year to year changes (Hurrell 1995). Of course much of this variability is unassociated with ENSO and may simply be unpredictable internal variability. However, during many ENSO events this appears not to be the case. Mathieu and colleagues (2004) showed that North Atlantic anomalies during individual ENSO events appear to be reproducible in ensembles of climate model experiments. On the other hand, they also concluded that this reproducible signal differedbetween different ENSO events.
The reproducible but apparently variable impact of ENSO on the North Atlantic also appears in longer sections of the observational record. For example, the average effect of ENSO in the latter 20 years of the 20th century was quite different to the average signal in the previous 20 years. Given that these signals are reproducible in models the obvious conclusion might be that the signals are real but “non-stationary” and therefore time-varying (Greatbatch et al, 2004).

An alternative idea is that the Atlantic response to ENSO could be non-linear. If El Nino events are segregated into the strongest one third and the weakest two thirds of events then an apparent consistency emerges in the Atlantic response (Toniazzo and Scaife, 2006). Only the moderate to weak events show the canonical negative NAO pattern while the strongest events show a rather different pattern with a barotropic high to the west of Europe. This response has been explained as a tropospheric wave train from the tropical Atlantic which appears to dominate the Atlantic response during the strongest El Niño events (Toniazzo and Scaife 2006). As this was a primarily observational result one might be forgiven for thinking that the apparent non-linearity appears in the observational record due to a random ‘fluke’. However, recent experiments with a climate model in which the amplitude of the El Niño signal in the tropical Pacific was artificially increased were able to reproduce the observed transition between a negative NAO like response and a pattern similar to the observed response strong El Nino events (Bell et al, 2009). This last piece of evidence adds weight to the idea that the observed non-linearity is indeed a real effect. Finally, it appears that the canonical response of the Atlantic to ENSO may continue for many years to come as it has been found to persist even under climate change conditions (Müller and Roeckner, 2006)

Edit, adding the conclusion as well.
Quote
6. Conclusion
Both observational and modelling studies show a consistent Atlantic climate response to ENSO. The canonical response is for a negative winter NAO pattern during El Nino and cold winter anomalies over Northern Europe. The whole depth of the atmosphere is involved in transmitting this signal from the tropical Pacific to the Aleutian region, into the stratosphere and subsequently back down in to the Atlantic basin. Most steps in this pathway are at least partly understood.
A number of other important details have been added to this basic picture. The signal mentioned above is strongest during late Winter. This intraseasonality is reproduced in some GCM studies where it coincides with the descent of a westward wind anomaly through the stratosphere. There is also evidence for non-linearity in the Atlantic response to El Niño, with the few strongest events showing a different (but consistent) pattern which can be attributed to a tropospheric wave train emanating from the tropical Atlantic. La Niña shows roughly opposite signals to El Niño, including the intraseasonality of the signal, although some authors have argued that this signal is less clearly reproduced in numerical models.
Finally it is worth remarking on the practical use of these signals for seasonal forecasting. Quantification of the size of the ENSO signal against the total variability in the Atlantic region shows that ENSO produces a shift in basic climatological parameters such as temperature or rainfall over Europe that is several tens of percent of the magnitude of observed variability (Ineson and Scaife 2009). These teleconnections are therefore an important component for European seasonal prediction, when ENSO is active. A very recent example may be the winter of 2009/10 which contained a moderate El Niño event and a record negative NAO, which may be partly explained by the canonical teleconnetion described in this paper.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 15, 2016, 10:51:24 AM
Sleepy's excellent post on how the ENSO cycle can impact the climate/weather in Europe, made me think that I should provide some information about the impact of the ENSO cycle (including our current Super El Nino) on Australia.  The first linked website (& three associated images) discusses the general trends of impacts of the ENSO on Australia, while the second linked article provides a discussion of the current Super El Nino and its forecasted impact on Australian weather as El Nino conditions degrade.  Much like the US Southwest, Southern Australia has been in drought conditions but the forecast predicts some limited amount of rain relief:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a008-el-nino-and-australia.shtml (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a008-el-nino-and-australia.shtml)

Caption for first image: "Growing season (April–November) rainfall anomalies for eastern Australian plotted against the SOI averaged for April–November for all years from 1900 to 2013, showing the varied effect of both strong and weak El Niño events on rainfall. El Niño is typically associated with sustained negative SOI values."

Caption for second image: "Australian winter–spring mean maximum temperature deciles averaged for twelve strong El Niño events."

Caption for third image: "Australian mean rainfall deciles during October–December (left) and February–April (right) averaged for twelve strong El Niño events."
Extract: "The date of the monsoon onset in tropical Australia is generally 2–6 weeks later during El Niño years than in La Niña years. This means that rainfall in the northern tropics is typically well-below-average during the early part of the wet season for El Niño years, but close to average during the latter part of the wet season."

See also the following Australian Broadcasting Corporation, ABC, forecast:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-28/el-nino-declines-wetter-cooler-weather/7120288 (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-28/el-nino-declines-wetter-cooler-weather/7120288)

Extract: "The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting above average rainfall in for southern Australia in February to April as a strong El Nino declines
But the bureau warns it will not be enough to break the drought.
The latest long-range outlook suggests rainfall is more likely to be above average across much of southern Australia, with the strongest probability in the south-east, while the tropical north is expected to have a drier than average three months.
February will also be cooler than average across much of New South Wales and southern Queensland.
The bureau said while the rainfall forecast would be welcome in dry parts of southern Australia, a significant period of above average rain would be needed to recover from the long-term dry.
Dr Paul Feikema of the Bureau of Meteorolgy said the breakdown of El Nino historically saw good rainfall in some, but not all, areas.
"While each El Nino is unique, during the break down phase we usually expect some wetter than normal conditions in parts of southern Australia."
Dr Feikema said despite some rain in January, short and long-term drought continued in many parts of the country.
"Long-term deficiencies, over three years persist, particularly in Queensland, northern New South Wales and Victoria."
He said lower layer soil moisture remained below average across much of eastern Australia, particularly in areas affected by long-term drought."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 15, 2016, 11:31:38 AM
The two attached images show Nullschool forecasts for the South Pacific showing the 850-hPa Wind & MSLP forecasts for Feb 16, and 19, 2016, respectively.  These images indicate that the forecasted WWB will begin one day earlier than first forecast and will (at least initially) be focused south of the equator due to very strong and stable low pressure system just west of Tahiti (which will soon drive the SOI to become more negative):
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 15, 2016, 11:49:46 AM
The first three images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Feb 14 2016, with the first image showing that the Nino 3.4 index decreased, & the second image shows that the IOD increased (but remained both negative and neutral).  The third image shows that significant cloud cover was in place last week near the Equatorial Dateline.

The fourth image shows the TAO Eq. Pac. Subsurface Temp. Anom. for Feb 14 2016, showing that the recent downwelling phase of the EKW is dissipating rapidly.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 15, 2016, 11:52:35 AM
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending Feb 14 2016 for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively; all of which decreased last week.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: A-Team on February 15, 2016, 03:04:05 PM
Quote
#276 NOAA said it was conducting the rapid assessment due to heightened interest over El Niño’s impact upon California, which is in the midst of a historic four-year drought. El Niño brought a slew of rain to California in December and January, prompting warnings to residents not to let their guard down in an unprecedented water conservation push.
No it didn't. Nothing of the sort happened. Does NOAA not realize that 50 million people are actually living out here?

When December was bone dry, we were told 50 times to wait, El Nino wasn't expected to kick in until January. Stop your car at every dry drainage, there might be a flash flood upstream. Forget about water conservation, your house will wash into the sea.

When January had one Pacific storm train that didn't remotely fit anything previously defined as the "El Nino Pacific storm pattern", we were told 100 times that it was a perfect fit to the "El Nino Pacific storm pattern" but just wait until February, that  is normally the big month.

When February did not provide a drop, we were told 150 times that March or -- because this was a godzilla year -- April would be big.

But, see the cross-post at Arctic Humor #260, now we're being told by Keith Trenberth at NCAR that this was in fact a fairly minor El Nino if the strength is measured the right way (his way, not NOAA's or NASA's) and that the only part that counts for North Pacific tele quit two weeks ago.

Quote
"While this is technically a very strong El Niño, it’s not playing out as expected because tribal members are too focused on temperatures of specific regions, rather than the big picture. This El Niño has been called ‘very strong’ but that is true if one measures it only by the warmth in the eastern tropical Pacific. But most El Niños also feature a cooling in the western tropical Pacific, and that is largely absent this year.”

As a result, Trenberth said, the differences in temperature along the equator are much less than previous super El Niños, and the reversal in the trade winds that blow across the tropics is much weaker than we saw in the winter of 1997-1998, when Southern California saw nearly 14 inches of rain in the month of February alone..In addition, a lot of action is occurring in a very warm tropical Indian Ocean, which is interfering with the Pacific Ocean activity.

“A consequence of this is that the activity in the eastern Pacific has been nowhere near as strong as expected, and in fact it disappeared a couple of weeks ago,” said Trenberth. It’s the eastern Pacific activity that tends to have the most influence on Southern California storm tracks. 12 Feb 16

So naturally no rain should be predicted in February, especially from the safe perspective of a hindcast (Trenberth could see dry weather out to March 1st). We learn his computer model performed brilliantly, though time constraints prevented results from being shared with NOAA, FEMA, NASA, western water managers, agricultural interests, and the public until months after the fact.

Right: computer modeling successfully predicted tele effects of this El Nino on the northern hemisphere. And war is peace, freedom is slavery, ignorance is strength.

If the models are already so great, why do we need to spend further millions on this rushed new airplane survey of NOAA & NASA?

In June 2015, we were told that Miracle May -- that broke 125 year old rain records in Colorado and ended water rationing downstream in Arizona and California -- was exactly the kind of thing to be expected in an El Nino year even though the indices had hardly budged by then and the main event was still 8 months away. I'm not joking, those are the exact words of a climate scientist to Associated Press.

I'm going on the record as predicting -- if we get another Miracle May this year -- it too will be attributed to the current El Nino, even though the supposed tele effects of that have already disappeared. Everything anywhere in and around an El Nino event is attributed to that El Nino, it's that simple. In La Nada years, it's just weather (though patterns can coincidentally be a perfect match to El Nino's!).

There seem to be no agreed-upon rules or criteria for attribution, only endlessly shape-shifting definitions and measures that provide a good temporary fit to recent weather. There are no consequences for pushing complete rubbish out to the press. There seems to be zero accountability or standards within the profession -- a C- grade on a multiple choice test certifies you as meteorologist.

Will some science-hating humanities academic pound on Google Search to ridicule who said what when during the last six shabby months? I think that very likely.

My take overall is that El Nino tele climatology is not outright scientific fraud but is pushing the limits. By any practical measure, it's been harmful, which is worse than useless. People are pretending to have knowledge that they don't. There is pressure to show results after decades of continuing failure. We are still stuck at recording event data and developing backwards-looking indicators that fit it.

Interestingly, D Swain has backed off from the 'ridiculously resilient ridge' as having any predictive value ('resilient means persistent and that can only be determined after the fact') and has (wisely) frozen his California weather blog awaiting a flurry of El Nino scientific papers (excuses) expected in June.

This could just as well go in the humor forum: the endlessly repeated mantra of 1982/83 and 1997/98 bringing above average precip to the Southwest will get dragged down badly this 3rd year but carry on, that can be quietly changed to the one thing you can count on in El Nino years is below average precip without the little people even noticing.

The participants here really need to look at the larger picture -- when one sector of science abuses public credibility, legitimate scientists in other fields get caught up in the downdraft of public contempt. This will very much detract from our ability to communicate the real risks of coming climate change.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Csnavywx on February 15, 2016, 03:35:06 PM
Part of the issue is the heavy use of analogs for forecasting and extrapolation on small sample sizes. I've been arguing for some time now that these analogs are becoming a liability for the forecasting community because the "baseline" state is now changing so fast that by the time you have a decent data set of 30-year climate normals the system has already changed enough to basically invalidate most of them. Some still hold -- but finding them and vetting them is difficult. AA is wreaking havoc on the atmospheric pattern in the Northern Hemisphere and has now become powerful enough to start dominating the winter pattern on a virtually year-to-year basis since the big melt-out in 2007.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 15, 2016, 04:37:40 PM
Per the following data, NOAA indicates that for the week centered on Feb 10 2016, the Nino 3.4 index has dropped down to +2.5, that the Nino 4 index remained constant at +1.5, and that both the Nino 1+2 and the Nino 3 indices dropped significantly:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 16DEC2015     25.2 2.4     28.0 2.9     29.5 2.9     30.2 1.7
 23DEC2015     25.2 2.1     28.0 2.7     29.3 2.7     30.0 1.6
 30DEC2015     25.2 1.6     28.0 2.6     29.3 2.7     29.9 1.5
 06JAN2016     25.7 1.8     28.1 2.7     29.1 2.6     29.7 1.4
 13JAN2016     25.7 1.4     28.3 2.8     29.2 2.6     29.6 1.3
 20JAN2016     26.0 1.4     28.2 2.5     29.1 2.5     29.6 1.4
 27JAN2016     26.1 1.0     28.2 2.3     29.1 2.5     29.7 1.5
 03FEB2016     26.6 1.2     28.3 2.2     29.3 2.6     29.6 1.5
 10FEB2016     26.5 0.7     28.3 2.0     29.2 2.5     29.6 1.5
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 15, 2016, 04:50:35 PM
The first two images were issued today by NOAA showing the Eq Pac Evolutions for the SSTA and the Upper-Ocean Heat Anom, respectively.  These two images support the idea that the current downwelling phase of the current EKW is nearly completed.

The last two images were issued by the U at Albany today for 5S-5N Wind Anoms at 850-hPa and 200-hPa, respectively.  The third image indicates break in the projected WWB by Feb 21, while the fourth image indicates less Walker Cell participation than was originally projected a few days ago.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 15, 2016, 04:59:45 PM
The first two images were issued today by NOAA & show the MJO forecast from Feb 15 to 29 2016 for the NCPE (uncorrected), and the NCPB (bias corrected), respectively.

The third image show the MJO forecast for the same period for European Centre's ECMF forecast.

Again, yesterday's NCPE showed the most skill for a 1-day MJO forecast as the MJO is now just entering the Western Pacific.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 15, 2016, 07:57:52 PM
Part of the issue is the heavy use of analogs for forecasting and extrapolation on small sample sizes. I've been arguing for some time now that these analogs are becoming a liability for the forecasting community because the "baseline" state is now changing so fast that by the time you have a decent data set of 30-year climate normals the system has already changed enough to basically invalidate most of them. Some still hold -- but finding them and vetting them is difficult. AA is wreaking havoc on the atmospheric pattern in the Northern Hemisphere and has now become powerful enough to start dominating the winter pattern on a virtually year-to-year basis since the big melt-out in 2007.

I concur that climate change is coming faster (including AA) than most people are prepared to admit, and this means that most climate change models (I note that of these models ice sheet models are widely acknowledged by experts to be the least accurate) including ENSO models will increasingly struggle to remain accurate.  Furthermore, due to moral hazard all kinds of parties (policymakers, media reporters, politicians, bloggers, etc.) will take advantage of this uncertainty to promote their own personal agendas.  Furthermore, as the linked survey results indicate that even middle and high school science teachers are befuddled about climate change, and scientists are widely acknowledged to poorly communicate their messages, so what chance is there that the general public will understand climate change, let alone a classically chaotic systems like ENSO?  That said, when engaged in battle the best thing to do is to keep your head down and keep fighting:

http://www.modernreaders.com/survey-climate-change-befuddles-most-teachers/40065/melissa-taylor (http://www.modernreaders.com/survey-climate-change-befuddles-most-teachers/40065/melissa-taylor)

Extract: "A new survey commissioned by the National Center for Science Education and Penn State University suggests that middle and high school teachers are often confused when it comes to climate change."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 16, 2016, 02:42:48 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has re-continue moving up to -9.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 16, 2016, 10:11:16 AM
Here is the Nullschool's forecast for Feb 20 2016, for the Earth 850-hPa Wind & MSLP, indicating that the WWB is slight weaker than the forecast for Feb 19 2016:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 16, 2016, 04:27:34 PM
NASA: The Demise of the Warm Water Blob
Quote
Thanks in part to the strong El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, the Blob has finally broken up. Beginning in November 2015, strong winds blowing south from Alaska began to pick up, and sea surface temperatures in the northeastern Pacific began to cool.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=87513 (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=87513)

Top image is from July 2015; bottom image is from January 2016.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 16, 2016, 04:29:18 PM
Part of the issue is the heavy use of analogs for forecasting and extrapolation on small sample sizes. I've been arguing for some time now that these analogs are becoming a liability for the forecasting community because the "baseline" state is now changing so fast that by the time you have a decent data set of 30-year climate normals the system has already changed enough to basically invalidate most of them. Some still hold -- but finding them and vetting them is difficult. AA is wreaking havoc on the atmospheric pattern in the Northern Hemisphere and has now become powerful enough to start dominating the winter pattern on a virtually year-to-year basis since the big melt-out in 2007.

The linked website indicates that NOAA is the USA's lead agency for model forecasts on the timescales of weeks to years (which includes the ENSO cycle), and one of its priorities is to improve its Climate Forecast System (CFS) version2.  Hopefully, they are receptive to helpful suggestions on how to improve their CFSv2 ENSO forecasts given the non-stationary nature of climate change and the positive feedback that the ENSO will have on future global warming:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/CTB/ov.htm (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/CTB/ov.htm)

Extract: "NOAA/NCEP is the lead agency with responsibility for producing US operational climate monitoring, models and predictions on time scales ranging from weeks to years. The mission of NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB) is to accelerate research-to-operation (R2O) to improve NCEP operational climate models, monitoring and predictions, and to provide operations-to-research (O2R) support to the climate research community with access to operational models, forecast tools and datasets.

The CTB’s current priorities include i) multi-model ensembles for climate predictions, ii) Climate Forecast System (CFS) improvements, iii) climate forecast tools and products; and iv) climate-quality reanalysis."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 16, 2016, 04:46:12 PM
The first two images show NOAA's MJO forecast from Feb 16 to March 1 2016 for the NCPE (uncorrected) and NCPB (bias corrected) systems.  The NCPB showed the most 1-day skill of all Clivar MJO forecasts from yesterday (see the attached link), and indicates more bullish El Nino supporting conditions today than yesterday.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml)

The third image shows the U at Albany's 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Feb 16 to 23 2016, which is more bullish on the current WWB than its forecast from yesterday.

The European Centre has not yet posted updated MJO forecasts, but I will post the ECMF MJO forecast here when it is available.

Edit: The fourth image shows the ECMF MJO forecast from Feb 16 to March 1 2016
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 17, 2016, 02:44:40 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -9.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Pmt111500 on February 17, 2016, 03:56:07 AM
Not that the MJO is the easiest system to predict accurately (in fact it might be one of the hardest of almost regular weather/climate phenomena to predict) I'd like to think the large difference between NCPB and EMFC forecasts would be indicative of something. Maybe this WWB is the last one strong enough to give support to El Nino conditions? Thus Nino would be soon over and the tropical maximum response to it would be in late March -early April once the effect has rounded the globe?

Also, Sleepy has posted images of a potential SSW event, which in it self is interesting. Some scholars are attempting to statistically connect enso and qbo, I thought the strong WWBs assocciated with MJOs during the build up of el ninos would mediate the connection, but one of the scholars said SSWs are more likely the physical link. The trouble with this is, the SSWs do not generally start from the Pacific! I believe there is a connection, but the level of maths involved pass my expertise by a half-a-mile, so it's not likely I can contribute to this effort, that imo could make the ENSO forecasts way more reliable.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on February 17, 2016, 06:21:10 AM
Pmt, when I started reading about ENSO a few years back I was quite surprised when I ended up with reading papers fom the sixities about the QBO... Why? It's a large scale clockwork oscillation that's still not well understood. The same goes for the MJO. And ENSO, and it's aftermath. There's a fundamental misunderstanding here somewhere, maybe the coriolis effect? I think we (they) will have to check the cornerstones here. But I'm just a novice reading, trying to understand.

ASLR posted a link to a new paper in the Conservative Scientists & its Consequences thread yesterday.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1053.msg70113.html#msg70113 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1053.msg70113.html#msg70113)
If someone has access to that paper I would love to read it.

Here's a paper from 2014.
Northern Hemisphere mid-winter vortex-displacement and vortex-split stratospheric sudden warmings: Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
http://web.gps.caltech.edu/~kfl/paper/Liu2014.pdf (http://web.gps.caltech.edu/~kfl/paper/Liu2014.pdf)
Quoting the abstract:
Quote
We investigate the connection between the equatorial Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and
different types of the Northern Hemisphere mid-winter major stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs), i.e., vortex-displacement and vortex-split SSWs. The MJO-SSW relationship for vortex-split SSWs is stronger than that for vortex-displacement SSWs, as a result of the stronger and more coherent eastward propagating MJOs before vortex-split SSWs than those before vortex-displacement SSWs. Composite analysis indicates that both the intensity and propagation features of MJO may influence the MJO-related circulation pattern at high latitudes and the type of SSWs. A pronounced Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) dependence is found for vortex-displacement and vortex-split SSWs, with vortex-displacement (-split) SSWs occurring preferentially in easterly (westerly) QBO phases. The lagged composites suggest that theMJO-related anomalies in the Arctic are very likely initiated when the MJO-related convection is active over the equatorial Indian Ocean (around the MJO phase 3). Further analysis suggests that the QBO may modulate the MJO-related wave disturbances via its influence on the upper tropospheric subtropical jet. As a result, the MJO-related circulation pattern in the Arctic tends to be wave number-one/wave number-two ~25–30 days following phase 3 (i.e., approximately phases 7–8, when the MJO-related convection is active over the western Pacific) during easterly/westerly QBO phases, which resembles the circulation pattern associated with vortex-displacement/vortex-split SSWs.

And there's a workshop in Helsinki in June.
The Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation: Confronting Model Biases and Uncovering Mechanisms
http://www.sparcdynvar.org/enso-and-qbo/ (http://www.sparcdynvar.org/enso-and-qbo/)
Quote
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the stratospheric Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) are major sources of interannual tropical variability, and are also known to generate teleconnections between the tropics and extratropics. However, their effects in the stratosphere are hard to separate in the analysis of observational data and realistic simulations. Recent papers have shown a non-linear stratospheric response when they combine (e.g. Calvo et al. 2009) and also in some cases, the influence of these stratospheric signals in the troposphere (e.g. Cagnazzo and Manzini 2009). This DynVar Research Topic focuses on characterizing the ENSO and QBO signals and their combined effects in the stratosphere; and also on investigating the possible role of the stratosphere on tropospheric ENSO and QBO teleconnections.
Let's hope some information is published after that one.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: JD on February 17, 2016, 06:38:11 AM
Have a look at what WebHubbleTelescope has done on QBO and his sloshing model for the El Nino at http://contextearth.com/ (http://contextearth.com/). The maths is beyond me, but he explains the principles simply enough for me to just about follow.

From one of his recent posts:

"I have been on a path to understand ENSO via its relationship to QBO and the Chandler wobble (along with possible TSI contributions, which is fading) for awhile now. Factors such as QBO and CW have all been considered as possible forcing mechanisms, or at least as correlations, to ENSO in the research literature.

Over time, I got sidetracked into trying to figure out the causes of QBO and the Chandler wobble hoping that it might shed light into how they could be driving ENSO.

But now that we see how the QBO and the Chandler wobble both derive from the seasonally aliased lunar Draconic cycle, it may not take as long to piece the individual bits of evidence together.

I am optimistic based on how simple these precursor models are. As far as both QBO and the Chandler wobble are concerned, one can't ask for a simpler explanation than applying the moon's Draconic orbital cycle as a common forcing mechanism."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Pmt111500 on February 17, 2016, 06:59:11 AM
Thanks for the link, i'm using the phone so links are pretty hard to add in context... WebHubTel was the scholar in question, a couple of my comments in there (by different nick...)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Pmt111500 on February 17, 2016, 03:32:37 PM

ASLR posted a link to a new paper in the Conservative Scientists & its Consequences thread yesterday.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1053.msg70113.html#msg70113 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1053.msg70113.html#msg70113)
If someone has access to that paper I would love to read it.

Here's a paper from 2014.
Northern Hemisphere mid-winter vortex-displacement and vortex-split stratospheric sudden warmings: Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
http://web.gps.caltech.edu/~kfl/paper/Liu2014.pdf (http://web.gps.caltech.edu/~kfl/paper/Liu2014.pdf)
Quoting the abstract:
Quote
<cut> The lagged composites suggest that theMJO-related anomalies in the Arctic are very likely initiated when the MJO-related convection is active over the equatorial Indian Ocean (around the MJO phase 3). Further analysis suggests that the QBO may modulate the MJO-related wave disturbances via its influence on the upper tropospheric subtropical jet. As a result, the MJO-related circulation pattern in the Arctic tends to be wave number-one/wave number-two ~25–30 days following phase 3 (i.e., approximately phases 7–8, when the MJO-related convection is active over the western Pacific)

And there's a workshop in Helsinki in June.
The Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation: Confronting Model Biases and Uncovering Mechanisms
http://www.sparcdynvar.org/enso-and-qbo/ (http://www.sparcdynvar.org/enso-and-qbo/)

That sounds like a plausible mechanism for the observed difference of the periods of qbo and enso WebHubTel talks about in the ''Daily Double' article. Yes, let's hope they'll get this solved, Robert Grumbine has also talked of this in his blog.

That could be a reason to visit Helsinki ;) , thanks for the info.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 17, 2016, 06:49:42 PM
The first two images show the MJO forecasts from Feb 17 to March 2 2016 for the NCPE and the ECMF, ensembles respectively.  The NCPE's 1-day forecast from yesterday showed the most skill, and today's forecast is more bullish for reinforcing El Nino conditions than yesterday's forecast.

The last to images show the U at Albany 5S-5N Wind Anom forecast from Feb 17 to 24 2016, for the 850-hPa, and the 200-hPa, cases, respectively.  These images taken together indicate that through at least Feb 21 the SPCZ is the dominate cause of the current strong WWB, while by at least Feb 24 the Walker Cell will begin to dominate (in agreement by both the NCPE & the ECMF):
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 17, 2016, 07:04:01 PM
And there's a workshop in Helsinki in June.
The Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation: Confronting Model Biases and Uncovering Mechanisms
http://www.sparcdynvar.org/enso-and-qbo/ (http://www.sparcdynvar.org/enso-and-qbo/)
Quote
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the stratospheric Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) are major sources of interannual tropical variability, and are also known to generate teleconnections between the tropics and extratropics. However, their effects in the stratosphere are hard to separate in the analysis of observational data and realistic simulations. Recent papers have shown a non-linear stratospheric response when they combine (e.g. Calvo et al. 2009) and also in some cases, the influence of these stratospheric signals in the troposphere (e.g. Cagnazzo and Manzini 2009). This DynVar Research Topic focuses on characterizing the ENSO and QBO signals and their combined effects in the stratosphere; and also on investigating the possible role of the stratosphere on tropospheric ENSO and QBO teleconnections.
Let's hope some information is published after that one.

The June 2016 Helsinki summary linking MJO activity in the Indian Ocean to subsequent SSW and ENSO activity, might possibly be associated with Randall Gates Simpson's April 2013 proposal (see link and two associated images) that the majority of SSW's originate in the Tibetan Plateau (which MJO activity in the Indian Ocean might possibly activate):

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/04/sudden-stratospheric-warmings-causes-effects.html (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/04/sudden-stratospheric-warmings-causes-effects.html)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 18, 2016, 12:38:30 AM
The BoM issued the following Nino 3.4 forecasts yesterday.  The first image shows the POAMA forecast projecting that by the BoM's standard the second half of 2016 will be ENSO neutral.  The last three images show Nino 3.4 model summaries for March, May and July 2016, respectively.  Clearly, the NOAA forecast is the most bullish for continuing El Nino conditions into the second half of 2016, but the other models are less bearish than when summaries were issued last.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 18, 2016, 02:42:31 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving down to -10.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on February 18, 2016, 08:20:20 AM
ASLR, thanks for the link (both here and in the refreeze thread) to Randall Gates Simpson's excellent post at Nevens blog. I saw that link the first time here in the refreeze thread:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1377.msg69411.html#msg69411 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1377.msg69411.html#msg69411)

Unfortunately I haven't followed Neven blog and that's a really, really good read over there. I will go through that more times than one, as it takes a while for my sleepy brain to process things. After that, it also has to stick to my teflon memory. :)

Attached are the nino plumes from ECMWF from February. For those interested you can also find the public EUROSIP multi model nino plumes here (still not updated for February though):
http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/ (http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 18, 2016, 05:14:09 PM
The first two images show the U at Albany 5S-5N Wind Anom forecasts for Feb 18 to 25 2016, for the 850-hPa, and 200-hPa, cases respectively.  Both forecasts are more bullish than yesterday, and confirm that the strong WWB will transition from being primarily driven by the SPCZ to one with both SPCZ & Walker Cell, contributions to the WWB, and will be sustained for some time to come.

The third image shows the NCPE (the ECMF has not yet been posted) MJO forecast from Feb 18 to March 3 2016.  It indicates that yesterday's MJO was more bullish than the previous one-day MJO forecast by both NOAA and the European Centre.  I will post the ECMF forecast when available.

Edit: Attached is the ECMF MJO forecast from Feb 18 to March 3 2016, and as expected it is more bullish than yesterday's forecast but it is less bullish than today's NCPE forecast.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on February 18, 2016, 05:40:31 PM
ASLR, the ECMWF most recent forecasts are out now! :)

Though not as bullish as the NOAA they show WWB to last until about leap day :)

/LMV
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: LRC1962 on February 18, 2016, 06:34:54 PM
A few questions do come to mind.
Given that the oceans do have more heat in them the, say in the last major ENSO event, could forecasting how much energy, and therefore how long and strong, is left in the ENSO area be more difficult to predict?
Normally the weather systems the ENSO kicks up travels east to west. This in turn mixes the atmosphere along the equator around the whole globe which would then I feel develop a  certain evenness and 'calmness' thereby taking a lot of energy out of the event. Given that the RRR-TTT interruptions occurring over NA pushing systems into the Arctic, could that bring even more instability along the equator,  therefore creating  systems along the equator in the near future which cold result in prolonging the ENSO?
As per normal we can only predict the future based on our understanding of what has happened in the past. My thinking is that we are missing 2 very critical elements when it comes to major weather events  such as PDO, AO, ENSO, La Nina, ...., and that is with the warming Arctic the temperature variance between the equator  and the Arctic is getting a lot smaller and therefore the east west variances now become far more important, also there is far more energy in the whole global system which is rising all the time because of the energy imbalance, then was there in the past decade, our understanding of what should happen should become murkier as we are now in an unstable time period until a new balance is reached. Also any new understanding how all systems work and interact with each other should be taken under advisement until that new balance is reached, because periods of instability are inherently very unpredictable. Not that we can not learn from what is happening, but what is it that we are learning?
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 18, 2016, 07:47:26 PM
Dr. Jeff Masters on this El Niño, and recent record temperatures and storms.

Quote
...El Niño peaked in strength in late November 2015, when the weekly Niño3.4 temperature anomaly hit a record 3.1°C. The anomaly was still a hefty +2.5°C this week, and El Niño is not weakening as quickly as many forecasts have predicted. NOAA still expects a transition to neutral conditions during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, though, with a possible transition to La Niña conditions during the fall. Many of the El Niño computer models are predicting La  Niña conditions during the August-September-October peak of hurricane season, which could lead to an active Atlantic hurricane season (NOAA"s CFSv2 model is a noteworthy exception, with the latest ensemble average from Feb. 15 suggesting that weak El Niño conditions might hang on through at least autumn 2016.) Even though NOAA has not issued an official "La Nina Watch", the probability is trending towards one, said NOAA El Niño expert Michelle L'Heureux, in an interview with Reuters last week. El Niño model predictions are least likely to be accurate when issued during the period from February to May, though, which is called the "Predictability Barrier" for forecasting El Niño.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/earth-rings-in-2016-with-its-warmest-january-on-record (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/earth-rings-in-2016-with-its-warmest-january-on-record)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on February 18, 2016, 07:48:11 PM
Latest plume of model ENSO predictions from the IRI website: 


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Firi.columbia.edu%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2016%2F02%2Ffigure4.gif&hash=973e66264a5a28d38ae8f3fbea638205)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Firi.columbia.edu%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2016%2F02%2Ffigure3.gif&hash=c28ea148fa5d19d0dabbc14ac2a97bf7)

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ (http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: plinius on February 18, 2016, 11:30:50 PM
Plinius: i'm not so sure about that. Sure, the easterlies will dominate this week but the MJO is moving to the western Pacific, which virtually all models agree about, and in about 10 days or so a new WWB should emerge. By the same time, the easterlies are foreseen to weaken, especially by week 3-4 according to NOAA CFSv2: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/ (http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/)

Congrats, you were fully right. Impressive WWB now.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 19, 2016, 02:17:08 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued dropping down to -10.5:

20160119,20160217,-10.5

Edit: Here is the plot
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 19, 2016, 04:05:38 PM
Further to A-Team's point that you cannot consider the ENSO impacts in isolation, but that one needs to look at the whole picture; the linked emphasizes the need to look at the warm Pacific blob, the cool Atlantic blob, AA (Arctic Amplification), ENSO, etc. (and the synergy of such phenomena).  Per the article, the attached image "… shows how the temperature departures from average change based on one’s latitude location on the Earth. As you can see, things get especially warm, relative to what the Earth is used to, as you enter the very high latitudes: 
Global warming has long been known to be particularly intense in the Arctic — a phenomenon known as “Arctic amplification” — but even so, lately the phenomenon has been extremely pronounced.

The low sea ice situation has now continued into February. Current ice extent is well below levels at the same point in 2012, which went on to set the current record for the lowest sea ice minimum extent:
“We’re way down, we’re at a record low for this time of year right now,” says Serreze. When it comes to the rest of 2016 and the coming summer and fall season when ice melts across the Arctic and reaches its lowest extent, he says, “we are starting out in a deep hole.”
So what’s causing it all? It’s a complicated picture, say scientists, but it’s likely much of it has to do with the very strong El Niño event that has carried over from 2015. But that’s not necessarily the only factor.
“We’ve got this huge El Niño out there, we have the warm blob in the northeast Pacific, the cool blob in the Atlantic, and this ridiculously warm Arctic,” says Jennifer Francis, a climate researcher at Rutgers University who focuses on the Arctic and has argued that Arctic changes are changing mid-latitude weather by causing wobbles in the jet stream. “All these things happening at the same time that have never happened before.”
Serreze agrees that the El Niño has something to do with what’s happening in the Arctic. “I think this is more than coincidence. That we have this very strong El Niño at the same time when we have this absurd Arctic warmth. But exactly what the details are on that, I don’t think we can say right now,” he says."


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/02/18/scientists-are-floored-by-whats-happening-in-the-arctic-right-now/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/02/18/scientists-are-floored-by-whats-happening-in-the-arctic-right-now/)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 19, 2016, 04:36:49 PM
This indicates to me that the most skillful forecast for the MJO last week would have been to split the difference between NOAA's (more bullish) and the European Centre's (more bearish) forecasts, as the MJO remained in the Pacific longer than the EC forecast but the MJO never looped back to the Dateline as NOAA forecast. 

It looks like the ECMF product (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml) performed best.  Note that this is slightly different from the ECMM product (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml) that you are using.

The image below shows the ECMF MJO forecast that was issued on 30 December (left), 5 January (middle), and 12 January (right), respectively.  Clearly, this forecast performed very well during the last few weeks:


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FRCFsV0h.png&hash=aef417a95775743d7deae20ee3c5be10)

(See here (http://i.imgur.com/RCFsV0h.png) for larger version of the image.) 


The link below shows an animation of how these ECMF MJO forecasts changed during the last 7 days (see date label at the top of each image of the animation):

http://i.imgur.com/Ewywpon.gif (http://i.imgur.com/Ewywpon.gif)


Finally, the link below shows a similar animation for NCEP's MJO forecast (more precisely, the NCPB product, which uses bias-corrected output of GFS model), which clearly performed poorly:

http://i.imgur.com/zgLpZ4n.gif (http://i.imgur.com/zgLpZ4n.gif)

Further to my post pointing-out A-Team's wisdom to look beyond just the ENSO input to the whole Earth System, I use this post as an opportunity to point-out Steven's wisdom that one needs to look beyond one Met center's forecasting methodology.  As Steven points out in January the NCPB MJO forecast "... clearly performed poorly:"  Now in February, following his wisdom we note that it is the ECMF's MJO turn to clearly perform poorly as indicated by the first image showing the ECMF MJO forecast from Feb 9 to 23 2016; which did not perform well compared to the historical data shown in the second attached image of the NCPB MJO forecast from Feb 19 to March 4 2016.  The third image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Feb 19 to 25 2016, that shows that the current WWB should strength by Feb 24-25.  The fourth attached image shows the NOAA-NCEP corrected Nino 3.4 forecast, which is more bullish than in January and clearly forecasts weak to moderate El Nino conditions for the boreal Fall of 2016.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 19, 2016, 04:53:23 PM
The two attached images show the Nullschool's Feb 19 2016 Wind Map, for 850-hPa & MSLP, and 250-hPa & TPW, respectively.  These maps show that: (a) The SPCZ is moderate; (b) the active phase of the MJO is still centered west of the International Dateline, and (c) the WWB is reasonably strong now but is centered south of the equator.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 19, 2016, 10:52:14 PM
The first two images show the MJO forecasts from Feb 19 to March 4 2016, for the ECMF, and the NCPE, respectively. The third image shows the NOAA Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom circa Feb 19 2016, indicating that we are in another trough that may reverse if the current WWB creates another downwelling phase of the EKW.  The fourth image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom model hindcast for Feb 12 2016 (possibly indicating that the recent downwelling phase of the EKW may have already reflected off of South America and may be headed westward where it might reinforce a possible new WWB-induced downwelling phase of the EKW heading eastward from the Western Tropical Pacific.  If so this could temporarily increase the Nino 3.4 index in few weeks time).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 20, 2016, 02:28:54 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained unchanged at -10.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 20, 2016, 06:45:13 PM
For the past few days (including yesterday) the NCPB (bias corrected) MJO has shown the most forecasting skill, so the first image shows this forecast from Feb 20 to March 5 2016, and it is very bullish for reinforcing El Nino conditions.  The second & third images show the MJO forecasts for the same period for the NCPE & the ECMF, respectively.

The fourth image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Feb 20 to 27 2016, showing that by the Feb 24-25 timeframe our current WWB will intensify up to conditions during the January 2016 WWB (which was also driven by high active phase MJO values near the dateline).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 20, 2016, 08:12:26 PM
Perhaps I have been negligent in pointing-out that the current WWB is partially being supported by Tropical Cyclone Winston (see the links & Cyclocane image), which is the most powerful tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere.  This is yet another example of how global warming is likely contributing to the inaccuracies of conventional ENSO forecasts (such as the early February ECMF MJO forecast):

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/20/us/tropical-cyclone-winston-fiji/ (http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/20/us/tropical-cyclone-winston-fiji/)


Extract: "Record-setting Tropical Cyclone Winston re-energizes as it punishes Fiji.  The most powerful storm on record in the Southern Hemisphere is reintensifying over open waters after making landfall in Fiji on Saturday evening."

http://www.cyclocane.com/tropical-storm-risk/#spac (http://www.cyclocane.com/tropical-storm-risk/#spac)

Extract: "SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 200000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.2S 179.9W, APPROXIMATELY 111 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA,
FIJI, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 160 KNOTS GUSTING"
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 20, 2016, 08:22:45 PM
The linked Mashable article discusses the relatively low rainfall in California, so far during the 2015-16 El Nino:

http://mashable.com/2016/02/17/el-nino-was-supposed-to-bail-out-parched-california-so-where-are-the-storms/#iUaKuwC5jaqx (http://mashable.com/2016/02/17/el-nino-was-supposed-to-bail-out-parched-california-so-where-are-the-storms/#iUaKuwC5jaqx)

Extract: "Regardless of how the rest of the rainy season goes, this El Niño has already proven the weather forecaster's adage that no two El Niño events are exactly alike.

...

“This year so far we haven’t had anything to write home about in southern California,” said Tony Barnston, the lead climate forecaster at the Institute for International Research on Climate and Society (IRI) in an interview.

“It’s been near normal, which is not good enough.”"
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 21, 2016, 02:47:55 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -10.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 21, 2016, 06:09:25 PM
The first two images give the NCPB (bias corrected) & ECMF (uncorrected) MJO forecasts from Feb 21 to March 6 2016.  While the NCPB forecast is more bullish, these two forecasts are beginning to converge as compared to a week ago.

The last two images so the U at Albany 5S-5N Wind Anom forecasts from Feb 21 to 28 2016 for 850-hPa, and 200-hPa, respectively.  These indicate that current WWB will continue through the end of the forecast period, but that the Walker Cell likely will remain in a neutral configuration, indicating that the WWB likely will start losing intensity after the 28th.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 22, 2016, 02:26:38 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped back down again to -10.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 22, 2016, 03:40:36 AM
The linked reference uses data from 1979 to 2014 to correlate variation in the ITCZ and the energy flux equator, EFE, with such phenomena as the ENSO:

Ori Adam, Tobias Bischoff & Tapio Schneider (2016), "Seasonal and interannual variations of the energy flux equator and ITCZ. Part I: Zonally averaged ITCZ position", Journal of Climate, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0512.1 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0512.1)


http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0512.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0512.1)


Abstract: "In the zonal mean, the ITCZ lies at the foot of the ascending branch of the tropical mean meridional circulation, close to where the near-surface meridional mass flux vanishes. The ITCZ also lies near the energy flux equator (EFE), where the column-integrated meridional energy flux vanishes. This latter observation makes it possible to relate the ITCZ position to the energy balance, specifically, the atmospheric net energy input near the equator and the cross-equatorial energy flux. Here the validity of the resulting relations between the ITCZ position and energetic quantities is examined with reanalysis data for the years 1979-2014. In the reanalysis data, the EFE and ITCZ position indeed co-vary on timescales of seasons and longer. Consistent with theory, the ITCZ position is proportional to the cross-equatorial atmospheric energy flux and inversely proportional to atmospheric net energy input at the equator. Variations of the cross-equatorial energy flux dominate seasonal variations of the ITCZ position. By contrast, variations of the equatorial net energy input, driven by ocean energy uptake variations, dominate interannual variations of the ITCZ position, e.g., those associated with ENSO."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Pmt111500 on February 22, 2016, 04:54:21 AM
The linked reference uses data from 1979 to 2014 to correlate variation in the ITCZ and the energy flux equator, EFE, with such phenomena as the ENSO:

Ori Adam, Tobias Bischoff & Tapio Schneider (2016), "Seasonal and interannual variations of the energy flux equator and ITCZ. Part I: Zonally averaged ITCZ position", Journal of Climate, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0512.1 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0512.1)


http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0512.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0512.1)

(clip)
This latter observation makes it possible to relate the ITCZ position to the energy balance, specifically, the atmospheric net energy input near the equator and the cross-equatorial energy flux. (clip) Consistent with theory, the ITCZ position is proportional to the cross-equatorial atmospheric energy flux and inversely proportional to atmospheric net energy input at the equator. Variations of the cross-equatorial energy flux dominate seasonal variations of the ITCZ position. By contrast, variations of the equatorial net energy input, driven by ocean energy uptake variations, dominate interannual variations of the ITCZ position, e.g., those associated with ENSO."

It is probably out of scope of the article to connect the position of ITCZ with the PDO or AMO, though I guess the ITCZ positions in Atlantic and Pacifíc would likely be one indicator of these long-period cycles. Interesting approach for studying ENSO, still. Thius might make the early record of ENSO (1750-1930) more reliable, and possibly more derivable from the sparse weather observations from the early shipping logs (assisted by proxy measurements of marine bottom layers on relevant locations). I would further imagine this could be an approach to measure the difference between Arctic and Antarctic warming, thus be a confirmatory evidence of what we already know that Arctic is going to warm faster and more.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 22, 2016, 11:36:24 AM
The first two plots were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Feb 21 2016, indicating that both the Nino 3.4 and the IOD are down (compared to last week), respectively.

The last two images show the Nullschool forecasts for Feb 26 2016 for the 850-hPa Wind & MSLP, and for the 250-hPa Wind & TPW, respectively.  This plots show: a reasonably strong WWB, reasonably strong MJO activity, and reasonable Walker Cell participation for reinforcing El Nino conditions.

Collectively, these images confirm that the current El Nino is degrading, but that the current MJO & WWB activity will most likely slow the rate of that degradation as compared to earlier forecasts.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 22, 2016, 11:39:25 AM
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM, for the week ending Feb 21 2016 for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  All of these indices are down from last weeks values, indicating lowly degrading El Nino conditions.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 22, 2016, 05:02:33 PM
Per the following NOAA data the Nino 3.4 has drifted down to +2.4 for the week centered on Feb 17 2016:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 23DEC2015     25.2 2.1     28.0 2.7     29.3 2.7     30.0 1.6
 30DEC2015     25.2 1.6     28.0 2.6     29.3 2.7     29.9 1.5
 06JAN2016     25.7 1.8     28.1 2.7     29.1 2.6     29.7 1.4
 13JAN2016     25.7 1.4     28.3 2.8     29.2 2.6     29.6 1.3
 20JAN2016     26.0 1.4     28.2 2.5     29.1 2.5     29.6 1.4
 27JAN2016     26.1 1.0     28.2 2.3     29.1 2.5     29.7 1.5
 03FEB2016     26.6 1.2     28.3 2.2     29.3 2.6     29.6 1.5
 10FEB2016     26.5 0.7     28.3 2.0     29.2 2.5     29.6 1.5
 17FEB2016     26.6 0.5     28.3 1.9     29.1 2.4     29.5 1.4
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 22, 2016, 05:15:48 PM
The first three images were issued today (Feb 22 2016) by NOAA.  The first image shows the SSTA Evolution, indicating a degrading El Nino condition.  The second & third images show that the Eq Pac Upper-Ocean Heat Anom may soon be reaching the bottom of a trough.  The fourth image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Feb 22 to 29 2016; which indicates that the current WWB will likely be strong enough to create a new weak downwelling phase for the current EKW, which will likely allow the Upper-Ocean Heat Anom to reach another relatively low crest in over two months, or so.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 22, 2016, 05:35:24 PM
The first two images show the MJO forecast from Feb 22 to March 7 2016 for the NCPB and the ECMF, respectively.  Both forecasts are similar to each other (with both being bullish for the development of another weak downwelling phase of the EKW) with the NCPB being slight more bullish.

The third image show the BoM's Eq Pac. Dateline Cloud Cover circa Feb 22 2016, indicating relatively high cloud cover, which is suitable for temporarily sustaining the Walker Cell in a condition to weak reinforce El Nino conditions, thus slowing down the current rate of El Nino degradation.

The fourth image show the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for Feb 22 2016, indicating that Eq Pacific remains in an El Nino configuration, which should allow another downwelling phase of the current EKW to develop with only a moderately intense WWB event, such as currently forecast.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on February 22, 2016, 06:07:39 PM
Anthony Masiello have an interesting discussion with comparing figures about analog years to El Nino that have gone either neutral or to La Nina. Really intersting actually! :)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 23, 2016, 02:35:53 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -11.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 23, 2016, 05:24:50 PM
The first three images so the MJO forecast from Feb 23 to March 8 2016 for the NCPE, NCPB and the ECMF, cases respectively.  Of these the NCPB is the most bullish (& the NCPE is the least bullish) for conditions reinforcing slower El Nino degradation than previously forecast.

The last image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Feb 23 to March 1, 2016; which show strong WWB condition for the duration of the forecast:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 23, 2016, 05:34:48 PM
The two attached plots are from the Nullschool forecast for Feb 27 2016 for the Earth 850-hPa Wind & MSLP, and the Earth 250-hPa Wind & MSLP, cases respectively.  These images indicate conditions favorable for the formation of a new weak downwelling phase of our current EKW:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 24, 2016, 02:37:23 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -12.4:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 24, 2016, 05:48:25 PM
The first image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Feb 24 to March 2 2016, which shows to current WWB starting to weaken around Feb 29 2016.  The last three plots so the MJO forecasts from Feb 24 to March 9 2016 for the NCPE (uncorrected), NCPB (bias corrected), and the ECMF (uncorrected) MJO, cases respectively; which imply that the U at Albany WWB forecast uses European Centre input to their forecasts as both of the NOAA MJO forecast do not weaken sufficiently by Feb 29 2016 to support the U at Albany forecast.

Furthermore, I note that the NCPB had the most skillful one-day MJO forecast from yesterday.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 24, 2016, 07:54:48 PM
The first two images show Nullschool forecasts for Feb 28 2016 for the 850-hPa Wind & MSLP, and the 250-hPa Wind & TPW, cases respectively.  These images show a moderately strong active phase of the MJO centered on the Dateline, resulting in a strong WWB pattern.  If the GFS MJO forecast are correct a condition similar to this will persist into the beginning of March, while if the European Centre MJO forecast is correct this condition should start to dissipate after Feb 29.

The third image shows the NOAA Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom circa Feb 24 2016, showing that this Anom is currently dropping rapidly in the Eastern Tropical Pacific; while the fourth image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for Feb 24 2016 showing that warm surface water from the Western Tropical Pacific is slowly starting to move eastward and within two weeks may (or may not) develop a new downwelling phase of the current EKW (depending on what the MJO does during the beginning of March).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on February 24, 2016, 09:08:08 PM
Quite fascinating that the negative anomalies now extends almost the whole way to far Eastern Pacific. Makes me wondering if this WWB willhave any significant effect or just will make the OHC plateauing temporarily.

How are the prospects for the odds regarding a transition to La Nina at this stage? What did early dissipating El Ninos look like in the end of February? E.g 1973, 1983, 1987, 1992,  1998, 2003 and 2010?

//LMV
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: gregb on February 24, 2016, 10:20:43 PM
How are the prospects for the odds regarding a transition to La Nina at this stage? What did early dissipating El Ninos look like in the end of February?

The 97/98 subsurface anomalies were quite similar to what we see now. And as we all probably know, a strong La Nina event followed.

-g.b.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 24, 2016, 10:25:53 PM
Quite fascinating that the negative anomalies now extends almost the whole way to far Eastern Pacific. Makes me wondering if this WWB willhave any significant effect or just will make the OHC plateauing temporarily.

How are the prospects for the odds regarding a transition to La Nina at this stage? What did early dissipating El Ninos look like in the end of February? E.g 1973, 1983, 1987, 1992,  1998, 2003 and 2010?

//LMV

To address your first comment, what is key is the depth of the cool water as if it becomes shallow then the next upwelling phase will upwell cool water instead of the current warm water that is sustaining the current El Nino.
To address your second comment, as the devil is in the detail (all El Ninos are different) I will only look at the Nino indices for the 98 transition to La Nina, but you can look at the linked data for other rapid transitions:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for)

Looking at the following 98 data, I concur with Sleepy that the Nino 4 index is currently unusually high, so I continue to suspect that periodic WWBs may be sufficient to prevent a La Nina for the second half of 2016 (see the attached PDF corrected CFSv2 Nino 3.4 forecast issued Feb 24 2016), but I could be wrong:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 07JAN1998     28.0 4.0     28.9 3.4     29.2 2.6     29.1 0.8
 14JAN1998     28.4 4.0     28.9 3.3     29.1 2.5     29.0 0.7
 21JAN1998     28.4 3.7     28.9 3.2     29.0 2.4     28.9 0.7
 28JAN1998     28.3 3.2     29.1 3.1     29.1 2.4     28.9 0.7
 04FEB1998     28.9 3.4     29.1 3.0     29.2 2.5     29.0 0.9
 11FEB1998     28.9 3.0     29.0 2.7     29.0 2.3     29.0 0.9
 18FEB1998     29.1 3.0     28.8 2.3     28.7 1.9     28.8 0.7
 25FEB1998     29.1 2.9     28.9 2.2     28.6 1.7     28.8 0.7
 04MAR1998     29.2 2.8     29.0 2.2     28.5 1.5     28.6 0.4
 11MAR1998     29.2 2.8     29.1 2.1     28.7 1.6     28.8 0.7
 18MAR1998     29.2 2.7     29.1 2.0     28.6 1.4     28.6 0.4
 25MAR1998     29.1 2.8     29.2 2.0     28.8 1.5     28.6 0.4
 01APR1998     29.1 3.1     29.3 1.9     28.7 1.2     28.6 0.2
 08APR1998     28.8 3.0     29.2 1.8     28.6 1.0     28.5 0.0
 15APR1998     28.6 3.1     29.1 1.6     28.4 0.6     28.5 0.0
 22APR1998     28.4 3.2     29.0 1.6     28.5 0.7     28.5-0.1
 29APR1998     28.3 3.4     28.9 1.6     28.7 0.8     28.7 0.1
 06MAY1998     27.8 3.2     29.4 2.1     29.1 1.3     28.7 0.1
 13MAY1998     28.1 3.8     28.7 1.6     28.8 0.9     28.7-0.1
 20MAY1998     27.9 3.9     27.6 0.7     28.3 0.5     28.6-0.2
 27MAY1998     27.0 3.3     27.1 0.2     27.9 0.1     28.8 0.0
 03JUN1998     26.2 2.8     26.1-0.6     27.1-0.6     28.7-0.1
 10JUN1998     26.1 3.0     26.2-0.3     26.9-0.8     28.6-0.2
 17JUN1998     24.6 1.8     25.8-0.6     26.7-1.0     28.7-0.1
 24JUN1998     24.5 2.0     26.0-0.2     26.4-1.1     28.5-0.3
 01JUL1998     24.1 1.9     25.7-0.3     26.4-1.1     28.3-0.5
 08JUL1998     23.6 1.7     25.6-0.2     26.2-1.2     28.2-0.6
 15JUL1998     23.6 2.0     25.3-0.4     25.9-1.4     28.1-0.7
 22JUL1998     23.0 1.5     24.9-0.6     25.7-1.4     28.0-0.8
 29JUL1998     23.2 2.0     24.9-0.5     25.7-1.4     27.8-1.0
 05AUG1998     22.6 1.7     24.8-0.4     25.6-1.4     27.9-0.8
 12AUG1998     21.8 1.1     24.6-0.5     25.5-1.4     27.8-0.9
 19AUG1998     21.3 0.7     24.4-0.6     25.2-1.6     27.6-1.0
 26AUG1998     21.2 0.7     24.7-0.3     25.6-1.2     27.6-1.0
 02SEP1998     21.1 0.6     24.5-0.4     25.6-1.2     27.8-0.8
 09SEP1998     20.9 0.5     24.3-0.6     25.9-0.8     28.3-0.4
 16SEP1998     21.0 0.7     24.2-0.7     25.7-1.0     28.0-0.7
 23SEP1998     20.5 0.1     24.1-0.7     25.5-1.2     27.6-1.1
 30SEP1998     20.9 0.3     23.7-1.2     25.1-1.6     27.2-1.4
 07OCT1998     20.9 0.2     23.9-1.0     25.3-1.4     27.5-1.2
 14OCT1998     21.2 0.4     24.1-0.8     25.4-1.3     27.3-1.4
 21OCT1998     21.1 0.1     24.1-0.8     25.3-1.4     27.2-1.5
 28OCT1998     21.6 0.5     24.2-0.7     25.5-1.2     27.3-1.3
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 25, 2016, 02:32:55 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -13.4:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: plinius on February 25, 2016, 02:50:44 PM
@ASLR: with strong ENSO events you should use this:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif)

instead of the PDF-corrected model predictions. The latter are unfortunately biased due to a rather questionable treatment of their outliers.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 25, 2016, 04:45:37 PM
@ASLR: with strong ENSO events you should use this:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif)

instead of the PDF-corrected model predictions. The latter are unfortunately biased due to a rather questionable treatment of their outliers.

plinius,

Thanks, I do check that plot daily and readers can use your link to check it whenever they want.  I find the business of bias corrections are a bit of a black box and it is difficult to say what they are doing as the corrections seem to change with the season and other climatology (such as the status of the MJO, PDO, etc).

Best,
ASLR

Next, the first two plots show the MJO forecasts from Feb 25 to March 10 2016 for the NCPB, and ECMF, cases respectively.  Once again, the NCPB 1-day MJO forecast proved to be the most skillful as compared to yesterday's projection.

The last two images show the U at Albany's 5S-5N Wind Anom forecasts from Feb 25 to March 3 2016 for 850-hPa, and 200-hPa, cases respectively.  The 850-hPa forecast sustains the intense portion of the current WWB to March 2 (while yesterday it forecast a date of Feb 29), and the 200-hPa forecast indicates the possibility that the Walker Cell might (or might not) configure itself to reinforce El Nino conditions by March 3rd.  Thus the U at Albany is more bullish than yesterday.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 25, 2016, 10:30:01 PM
The first image & the following extract common from the Wiki-link about the monsoon trough (which is a portion of the ITCZ).  Per theory the Australian monsoon portion of the trough is most prominent in the Southern Hemisphere in February.   Nevertheless, the second image from Cyclocane showing the Tropical Pacific Convective Active 48-hr forecast issued Feb 25 2016 shows the monsoon trough on both sides of the equator with the southern branch being stronger.  These trough increase the frequency of tropical storms that can contribute to WWBs:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monsoon_trough

Extract: "The monsoon trough is a portion of the Intertropical Convergence Zone  as depicted by a line on a weather map showing the locations of minimum sea level pressure, and as such, is a convergence zone between the wind patterns of the southern and northern hemispheres.
Westerly monsoon winds lie in its equatorward portion while easterly trade winds exist poleward of the trough.



Monsoon troughing in the western Pacific reaches its zenith in latitude during the late summer when the wintertime surface ridge in the opposite hemisphere is the strongest. It can reach as far as the 40th parallel in East Asia during August and the 20th parallel in Australia during February. Its poleward progression is accelerated by the onset of the summer monsoon which is characterized by the development of lower air pressure over the warmest part of the various continents. In the Southern Hemisphere, the monsoon trough associated with the Australian monsoon reaches its most southerly latitude in February, oriented along a west-northwest/east-southeast axis."
Caption for the first image: "February position of the ITCZ and monsoon trough in the Pacific Ocean, depicted by area of convergent streamlines offshore Australia and in the equatorial eastern Pacific."

The last two images so the Nullschool forecast for Feb 29 2016 for the 850-hPa Wind & MSLP, and the 250-hPa Wind & TPW, cases respectively.  They show strong WWB activity (focused south of the equator) and some weak participation from the Walker Cell, but primarily driven by MJO activity.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 26, 2016, 02:27:17 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving down to -13.9:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: plinius on February 26, 2016, 01:17:42 PM
Well, it's quite an obvious problem. If you do a simple PDF-correction (seaon-dependent or not), you typically compare the set of forecasts with the outcome. Since forecasts are scattering about the model mean, there are always outliers above and below. Now, the PDF-correction comes in and simply asks: What is the average outcome, when a model predicted x. On the extreme tails, most predictions of x will have been model fails, i.e. extreme outliers, because extreme El Nino events are rare. Which also means that in strong events on both sides, the PDF correction is exactly where you do not want to go, because a) it hides the real model uncertainty, and b) it exhibits a strong bias towards the mean. If you don't believe me, just compare the insane PDF-corrected forecasts with the real outcome during the past half-year. The model itself has its own issues, but the PDF-correction just makes things worse, currently.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 26, 2016, 05:45:28 PM
Well, it's quite an obvious problem. If you do a simple PDF-correction (seaon-dependent or not), you typically compare the set of forecasts with the outcome. Since forecasts are scattering about the model mean, there are always outliers above and below. Now, the PDF-correction comes in and simply asks: What is the average outcome, when a model predicted x. On the extreme tails, most predictions of x will have been model fails, i.e. extreme outliers, because extreme El Nino events are rare. Which also means that in strong events on both sides, the PDF correction is exactly where you do not want to go, because a) it hides the real model uncertainty, and b) it exhibits a strong bias towards the mean. If you don't believe me, just compare the insane PDF-corrected forecasts with the real outcome during the past half-year. The model itself has its own issues, but the PDF-correction just makes things worse, currently.

First, considering that we are facing the Spring Barrier virtually all long-term forecasts (corrected or not) have a high degree of uncertainty; plus different forecast centers use different corrections so it is hard to make blanket statements.  Second, NOAA's corrected values seem to match the ONI values better, so it can be easier to try to interpret the corrected forecasts than the uncorrected forecasts.  Third, I am not saying that people should not look at the uncorrected information (I do myself daily), but on a blog format, it can be difficult explaining to a broad range of readers all of the various considerations.

That said, the first three images show the MJO forecasts from Feb 26 to March 11 2016 for the NCPE (uncorrected), NCPB (bias corrected) and ECMF (uncorrected), respectively.  These three forecasts are much closer together than in recent weeks, but now the ECMF is most bullish for conditions supporting a slower degradation of El Nino conditions than previously forecast, while once again the 1-day forecast of the NCPB showed the most skill when looking at yesterday's forecast.

The last image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Feb 26 to March 4 2016; which is more bullish than yesterday's forecast (as today's ECMF forecast is more bullish than yesterday's ECMF forecast), with the current intense WWB now starting to diminish in strength after March 2 (instead of March 1).  We should know by the first week in March whether a new downwelling phase of the EKW will develop.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on February 26, 2016, 06:06:05 PM
ASLR, it's interesting to see that while the WWB will decay after March 2, the westerly anomalies seems to expand over a large part of the EPAC which they should as the MJO moves over to the western hemisphere.

Aside of this, ECMWF monthly forecast calls for MJO to destructively interfere with El Nino during the second half of March.

According to Mike Ventrice via twitter there seems to be a huge signal for La Nina around the corner.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 26, 2016, 06:30:43 PM
Aside of this, ECMWF monthly forecast calls for MJO to destructively interfere with El Nino during the second half of March.

According to Mike Ventrice via twitter there seems to be a huge signal for La Nina around the corner.

As all of the MJO forecasts show the active phase destructively interfering with the Walker Cell (and the SOI) in the second half of March, I have to believe that Michael Ventrice is correct in his observation.  That said, both the MJO and the Walker Cell are atmospheric conditions that can relatively quickly change again after the ocean slowly moves through another downwelling EKW phase for the next month and a half (assuming that the current intense WWB starts such a downwelling pulse).  Therefore, in the late April to early May timeframe, we will need to see whether the active phase of the MJO is once again showing up near the Dateline in time to generate another downwelling phase that might (or might not) stop the Tropical Pacific Ocean from flipping into a La Nina pattern.

Lastly, not to split hairs but in the attached TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom profile for Feb 26 2016, it looks to me like the thickness of the surface warm water layer in the Nino 4 region is already beginning to increase; which might (or might not) indicate that the downwelling pulse is already beginning to form.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on February 26, 2016, 07:01:40 PM
Another thing that I was thinking about is how much the seasonal warming of the Western Pacific may prevent La Nina? Looking at Tropical Tidbits it seems to have been a substantial warming in both the west Pacific as in the far eastern Pacific. In the WPAC the surface anomalies seems like they soon will go positive.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: LRC1962 on February 27, 2016, 09:43:19 AM
I recognize that the Southern Hemisphere is much more stable at, least for now, as far as general weather patterns are concerned in comparison to the NH.
The NH is developing TTT-RRRs, moving of the Arctic highs from NP to Greenland seemingly,the funnelling of intense storms from the equator in to the high Arctic, etc.
To get to the point I understand how SOI is arrived at and why. The question I have is how closely are the points of Darwin and Tahiti being watched as regards to SOI given that so many past normals as applied to weather centres are dramatically relocating? And a corollary to that if those 2 points get moved to get an proper SOI reading, how would that impact how El Nino and La Ninas behave?
In no way am I implying that is happening now, but would it not be reasonable to assume that since weather in the NH have change that in the near future weather patterns in the SH would also change?
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 27, 2016, 09:55:58 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to
-14.4:

20160127,20160225,-14.4
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 27, 2016, 11:28:43 AM
The attached Nullschool forecast for March 2 2016 shows the Earth 850-hPa Wind & MSLP map; which indicates that an intense WWB will likely remain through that date:

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 27, 2016, 05:24:32 PM
The first two images show the MJO forecast from Feb 27 to March 12 2016 for NCPB, and ECMF, respectively.  Again the NCPB is the more bullish of the two for conditions supporting a relatively slow degradation of El Nino conditions.

The last two images show the U at Albany Wind Anom forecasts from Feb 27 to March 5 2016, showing both the strong WWB event that will likely induce another downwelling pulse, and also Walker Cell conditions that weakly support El Nino conditions.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 28, 2016, 04:56:40 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -15.3:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 28, 2016, 05:59:48 PM
The first two images are from the U at Albany 5S-5N Wind Anom forecast from Feb 28 to March 6 2016, for the 850-hPa, & 200-hPa, cases respectively.  These are more bullish than yesterday and show both the WWB event lengthening in duration and a small intensification of the Walker Cell for supporting El Nino conditions.

The last two images show MJO forecasts from Feb 28 to March 13 2016 for the NCPB, & the ECMF, respectively.  While these two forecasts are in general agreement, the NCPB forecast is more bullish & appears to be more in line with the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa WWB forecast.

In my opinion this forecast all but guarantees that another weak downwelling pulse of the EKW will occur, which will slow the rate of degradation of our current Super El Nino as compared to all earlier forecasts, including the relatively bullish forecasts from NOAA.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 28, 2016, 06:12:07 PM
The linked article discusses how NASA's latest ENSO models shows that our current El Nino event will likely differ significantly from the 97-98 event (which ended in La Nina conditions).

http://phys.org/news/2016-02-nasa-kind-el-nino.html (http://phys.org/news/2016-02-nasa-kind-el-nino.html)

Extract: ""In the past, very strong El Niño events typically transition to neutral conditions and then a La Niña event," said Kovach. February computer model runs forecast a return to normal sea surface temperatures by June. The latest Feb 5, 2016 forecast does not yet predict below normal sea surface temperatures that would result in a large La Niña. As of Feb. 14, 2016, the latest ocean computer model shows colder-than-average water temperatures off the South American coast from Ecuador to Panama. "This current El Niño has been different so it will be interesting to see what happens in the next forecast and the coming months.""
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 29, 2016, 02:26:44 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued dropping down to -16.3:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: LRC1962 on February 29, 2016, 06:01:21 AM
The linked article discusses how NASA's latest ENSO models shows that our current El Nino event will likely differ significantly from the 97-98 event (which ended in La Nina conditions).

http://phys.org/news/2016-02-nasa-kind-el-nino.html (http://phys.org/news/2016-02-nasa-kind-el-nino.html)

Extract: ""In the past, very strong El Niño events typically transition to neutral conditions and then a La Niña event," said Kovach. February computer model runs forecast a return to normal sea surface temperatures by June. The latest Feb 5, 2016 forecast does not yet predict below normal sea surface temperatures that would result in a large La Niña. As of Feb. 14, 2016, the latest ocean computer model shows colder-than-average water temperatures off the South American coast from Ecuador to Panama. "This current El Niño has been different so it will be interesting to see what happens in the next forecast and the coming months.""
As you can see visually, I think the biggest factor is that 97-98 has a fair amount of cold areas around the main El Nino event. 15-16 has a lot of warm to fairly hot spots.
We can easily be driven to a neutral because strong weather effects need both the cold and hot to keep things running, but I question how fast we go into a La Nina because that diversity to drive a La Nina is getting harder and harder to find. The other part is believing there is the cold you could get from the upwelling. Remember the 'hiatus'? Could it be that we may start finding out this year where some of that missing heat went?
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 29, 2016, 03:41:52 PM
NOAA NWS Ocean Prediction Center:  "Extremely busy Pacific Basin includes three developing hurricane force lows, two of which are rapidly intensifying, three storms and three gales. Wow!"
https://www.facebook.com/NWSOPC/posts/1014707908587940:0 (https://www.facebook.com/NWSOPC/posts/1014707908587940:0)

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 29, 2016, 04:22:50 PM
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending Feb 28 2016 for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  All of these indices are slightly up, indicating that we may be near the trough of the current upwelling phase of the EKW.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 29, 2016, 04:29:06 PM
The first two plots were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Feb 28 2016.  The first image shows that the Nino 3.4 index dropped slightly, indicating that the current WWB and the reflection of the old EKW pulse off of South America, has not yet influenced the Nino 3.4 area.  The second plot shows that the IOD is neutral.

The third image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for Feb 29 2016, showing that the WWB is thickening the warm water depth in the Nino 4 zone and that the old EKW pulse is reflecting off of South America (& is headed westward).

The fourth image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom circa Feb 29 2016, indicating that the current upwelling phase of the EKW is approach the bottom of its trough.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 29, 2016, 04:37:48 PM
The following NOAA Nino data through the week centered on Feb 24 2016, indicates that the Nino 1&2 is up, the Nino 4 is steady, the Nino 3 is slightly down & the Nino 3.4 is down to +2.1:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 06JAN2016     25.7 1.8     28.1 2.7     29.1 2.6     29.7 1.4
 13JAN2016     25.7 1.4     28.3 2.8     29.2 2.6     29.6 1.3
 20JAN2016     26.0 1.4     28.2 2.5     29.1 2.5     29.6 1.4
 27JAN2016     26.1 1.0     28.2 2.3     29.1 2.5     29.7 1.5
 03FEB2016     26.6 1.2     28.3 2.2     29.3 2.6     29.6 1.5
 10FEB2016     26.5 0.7     28.3 2.0     29.2 2.5     29.6 1.5
 17FEB2016     26.6 0.5     28.3 1.9     29.1 2.4     29.5 1.4
 24FEB2016     27.1 0.9     28.4 1.8     29.0 2.1     29.5 1.4

The first two plots were issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac Evolution for the SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively.  These images support the idea that we are in an upwelling phase and that we are slowly approaching its trough.

The last two images were issued today by the U at Albany for the 5S-5N Wind Anom forecast from Feb 29 to March 7 2016, for the 850-hPa, and the 200-hPa, cases respectively.  These confirm that the current intense WWB is continuing for the duration of the forecast, and that this WWB is driven by the MJO and only weakly supported by the Walker Cell.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 29, 2016, 05:07:22 PM
The MJO may have moved into a range where the European Centre forecasts are more accurate than the NOAA forecasts, so I provide four plots for comparison at this possible transition point.

All four attached MJO forecasts were issued today by Clivar for the period from Feb 29 to March 14 2016 for the NCPE (uncorrected), NCPB (corrected), ECMF (uncorrected) and the ECMM (corrected), cases respectively.  The ECMF is the least bullish (& possibly the most skillful in this range); while the NCPB is the most bullish (we will see) for slowing-down the rate of degradation of the current El Nino.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 01, 2016, 02:40:24 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued its plunge down to -17.3:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 01, 2016, 03:53:29 PM
Per todays' plots I'd say there's no more strenght (warmth) left in the western parts of Pacific to continue this El Nino. SOI may try to push water around still , but it's cooler thus clouds in wwbs that make the mjo tick hard won't be as vigorous as before. Guessing the ENSO goes neutral and expecting a quiet typhoon season for Asia. I've known to have got these wrong before, so caveats abound. What happens in autumn is so far out, much can happen in between.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 01, 2016, 04:34:28 PM
Per todays' plots I'd say there's no more strenght (warmth) left in the western parts of Pacific to continue this El Nino. SOI may try to push water around still , but it's cooler thus clouds in wwbs that make the mjo tick hard won't be as vigorous as before. Guessing the ENSO goes neutral and expecting a quiet typhoon season for Asia. I've known to have got these wrong before, so caveats abound. What happens in autumn is so far out, much can happen in between.

While every El Nino event is different, and I concur that we are looking directly at the Spring Barrier; nevertheless, the first images shows the Tropical Tidbits SSTA Map for March 1 2016 which indicates that there is sufficient surface warm water in the Western Eq. Pacific to create another downwell pulse into the Eastern Eq Pacific.  The second image shows the TAO 2S-2N Subsurface Mean & Anom Temp Profiles for March 1 2016, which confirms that indeed a new downwelling pulse is forming in the Nino 4 zone and will shortly be headed eastward into the Nino 3.4 zone.

The last two images show the most recent TAO data for the WWV Anom East vs West, and for the WWV vs Nino 3.4, respectively.  These images show that our current El Nino is more similar to the 82-83 event rather than the 97-98 event that produces a strong La Nina in 98.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 01, 2016, 04:55:43 PM
The first two images show the Clivar MJO forecasts from March 1 to 15 2016 for the NCPB, and the ECMF, cases respectively.  Both forecasts are very similar to each other showing that after March 2 the influence of the MJO on the WWB show decrease rapidly.  Also note that as the MJO departs the Pacific it loses strength relatively quickly so it may not be as disruptive to the SOI as it could have been.

The last two images show the U at Albany 5S-5N Wind Anom forecasts from March 1 to 8 2016 for the 850-hPa, and the 200-hPa, cases respectively.  These forecast confirm that after March 2 to WWB decreases rapidly, but also show that a moderate WWB lingers through March 8, by which time the downwelling phase of the EKW should be well on its way headed eastward to slow the rate of degradation of our current El Nino as compared to earlier Nino 3.4 forecasts.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 01, 2016, 05:13:23 PM
The first two images are Nullschool forecasts for March 1, while the last two are Nullschool forecasts for March 5 2016.

The first image shows the Earth SSTA & Ocean Current Map, confirming that there is sufficient surface heat in the Western Eq. Pacific to generate another downwelling phase of the EKW.

The second image shows the strength of the current WWB and how negative the SOI currently is.

The third image shows how by March 5 the WWB will become moderate & the SOI will become much less negative.

The fourth images shows how by March 5 there will be rain in Southern California as the MJO moves eastward in the Tropical Pacific.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 02, 2016, 02:41:33 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued its plunge down to -18.7:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 02, 2016, 05:18:46 PM
As the NCPB had the most skillful one-day MJO forecast yesterday, I only show it (see the first image for the forecast from March 2 to 16 2016) in this post as I am limited to four attached images and I want to be a precise as possible at this critical timeframe for forming a downwelling pulse for the EKM.  Note that it shows the MJO temporarily increasing in strength (as compared to yesterday) and drops rapidly as it moves out of Zone 8 (on the RMM diagram), thus the MJO may not be as disruptive to future SOI values as Ventrice previously forecast.

The second image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for March 2 2016, clearly showing the beginnings of a weak downwelling phase in the Nino 4 region.

The third image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from March 2 to 9 2016, showing that the intensity phase of the WWB has already dropped-off rapidly (I note that I believe that the UatA uses ECMF input and thus is less bullish than the CFSv2).

The fourth image shows the Earth 850-hPa Wind & MSLP Map for March 2 2016, showing that the current WWB is stronger than that forecast by the U at Albany (indicating that it may be reasonable to have some confidence in NOAA projections at this point in time).

Lastly I note that the Long Paddock Station daily SOI for March 2 2016 was: -36.80
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 03, 2016, 02:39:04 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued plunging down to -20.1:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 03, 2016, 04:29:40 PM
The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for March 3 2016, showing that a downwelling pulse is clearly forming and will likely stop upwelling of cool deep water.

The second & third images show the U at Albany 5S-5N Wind Anom forecast from March 3 to 10 2016, for the 850-hPa and 200-hPa, cases respectively, confirming that the WWB is decreasing in intensity from continuing through about March 8th (which will keep the downwelling pulse small but in good health).

The fourth image shows the NCPB MJO forecast from March 3 to 17, 2016, confirming that the MJO will decrease rapidly as it moves east, indicating that it will not be much of a disruptive factor for a slowly degrading El Nino.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 03, 2016, 05:26:14 PM
Per the attach Earth SSTA & Current Map for March 3 2016, it is possible/probable that I have oversold the downwelling's pulse to stop upwelling of cool deep water (note the cool area in the Nino 3.4 region); however, maybe it will limit the amount of cooling that will occur.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 04, 2016, 02:36:06 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued dropping down to -21.1:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 04, 2016, 04:56:50 PM
It is difficult to say whether the westward moving upwelling pulse is going to dominate the eastward moving downwelling pulse in the Nino 3.4 region, or vice versa.

The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for March 4 2016, showing that the westward moving pulse of warm water reflected off of South America is weakening quickly, and that the eastward moving pulse of warm water is meeting resistance from the upwelling cool water in the Nino 3.4 region.

The second image shows the Earth SSTA & Ocean Current Map for March 4 2016, showing the location of the upwelling cool water in the Nino 3.4 region.

The third image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom from March 4 to 11 2016; showing that a moderate WWB remains in effect until around March 8 2016.

The fourth images shows the NCPB MJO forecast from March 4 to 18 2016, showing the MJO degrading rapidly as it moves eastward (which if it were to occur would minimize disruption from the MJO to El Nino conditions).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 05, 2016, 02:38:59 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -22.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 05, 2016, 04:29:44 PM
The first image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from March 5 to 12 2016, showing that the WWB has intensified today; which is turning-out to be a critical day for reinforcing the weak new eastward traveling downwelling pulse of the EKW.

The second image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for March 5 2015, showing that indeed the downwelling pulse is moving eastward and it slowing closing the recent short-term upwelling event in the Nino 3.4 area.

The third image shows the Earth SSTA & Ocean Current Map for March 5, 2016; which indeed confirms that the recent upwelling event is being over-taken by the downwelling pulse; which is keeping the Nino 3.4 SSTA higher than it otherwise would be (but the current El Nino is clearly still degrading).

The fourth image shows the NCPB (corrected) MJO forecast from March 5 to 19, 2015, indicating that the MJO is contributing to the current weak pulse of WWB, before it rapidly declines in strength as it leaves the Eastern Pacific (which will limit its destructive impact on SOI conditions that favor El Nino [or at least neutral] conditions).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 06, 2016, 05:15:46 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -22.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 06, 2016, 04:49:45 PM
The first plot shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from March 6 to 13 2016, indicating a more bullish WWB forecast than yesterday that should support the current weak downwelling pulse of the EKW.

The second plot shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom plot for March 6 2016, indicating that the upwelling activity has stalled as the downwelling pulse moves eastward.

The third plot shows the Earth SSTA & Ocean Current plot for March 6 2016, showing that while the upwelling activity in the Nino 3.4 region has stalled, the overall Tropical Pacific SSTA's are slowly dropping; while other SSTA's elsewhere (near Japan, US East Coast, Indian Ocean etc) are unusually high.

The fourth plot shows the NCPB MJO forecast (which is similar to the ECMF today) form March 6 to 20 2016; indicating that the MJO showed be weak for the duration of the forecast.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 06, 2016, 08:23:01 PM
I'm sorry ASLR, but to me the ECMWF forecast seems to differ a lot to NCPB forecast. The ECMWF forecast calls for a quite rapid move of MJO to phase 4 in avout a week or so and then move into phase 5 a few days later.  See attached link (courtesy NOAA): 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml)

Question: how much destructive interference with El Nino does MJO have in phase 4-5? In phase 1-3 it's significant.

The latest OHC analysis also clearly shows a small increase of the OHC.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 06, 2016, 09:41:33 PM
I'm sorry ASLR, but to me the ECMWF forecast seems to differ a lot to NCPB forecast. The ECMWF forecast calls for a quite rapid move of MJO to phase 4 in avout a week or so and then move into phase 5 a few days later.  See attached link (courtesy NOAA): 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml)

Question: how much destructive interference with El Nino does MJO have in phase 4-5? In phase 1-3 it's significant.

The latest OHC analysis also clearly shows a small increase of the OHC.

Much to do about nothing
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 06, 2016, 10:14:40 PM
ASLR,  thanks for that! ???
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 07, 2016, 02:23:38 AM
For the third day in a row the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -22.0, per the attached plot issued today by the BoM:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 07, 2016, 04:59:24 PM
Per the following weekly Nino data issued by NOAA for the week centered on March 2 2016, the Nino 3.4 dropped down to +1.9, while the Nino 3 & 4 indices remained constant and the Nino 1+2 index increased:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 06JAN2016     25.7 1.8     28.1 2.7     29.1 2.6     29.7 1.4
 13JAN2016     25.7 1.4     28.3 2.8     29.2 2.6     29.6 1.3
 20JAN2016     26.0 1.4     28.2 2.5     29.1 2.5     29.6 1.4
 27JAN2016     26.1 1.0     28.2 2.3     29.1 2.5     29.7 1.5
 03FEB2016     26.6 1.2     28.3 2.2     29.3 2.6     29.6 1.5
 10FEB2016     26.5 0.7     28.3 2.0     29.2 2.5     29.6 1.5
 17FEB2016     26.6 0.5     28.3 1.9     29.1 2.4     29.5 1.4
 24FEB2016     27.1 0.9     28.4 1.8     29.0 2.1     29.5 1.4
 02MAR2016    27.3 1.0     28.6 1.8     28.9 1.9     29.5 1.4

The three attached images were issued by NOAA on March 7 2016 for the: (a) Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom, which shows an increase; (b) the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom Evolution, which shows the bottom of the current trough has been reached; and (c) the SSTA Evolution, which shows slowly degrading El Nino conditions.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 07, 2016, 05:13:52 PM
The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for March 7 2016, indicating that the current downwelling pulse has closed the recent weak upwelling gap in the Nino 3.4 region; which should help to sustain slowly degrading El Nino conditions; which decreases the probability of either neutral or La Nina conditions this Fall.

The second image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from March 7 to 14 2016; which is more bullish than yesterday for conditions supporting a weak El Nino this Summer.

The last two images show the NCPB and the ECMF MJO forecasts from March 7 to 21 2016, respectively; which indicate that both support the idea that the MJO will not be destructive to the current moderate El Nino for at least the next 7-days (note that the ECMF forecast for the next 7-days came more inline with yesterday's NCPB forecast).

Edit: I note that both the NCPB and the ECMF MJO forecasts beyond 7-days typically change, often significantly.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 07, 2016, 05:22:04 PM
The four attached images were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending March 6 2016 for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  These images support the idea that the current moderate El Nino is degrading more slowly than the BoM previously forecast.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 07, 2016, 05:26:13 PM
The three attached images were issued today by the BoM, with the first two showing weekly data through the end of March 6 2016.  The first image shows that the Nino 3.4 index dropped to +1.58; & the second image shows that the IOD remains neutral. The third image shows relatively high cloud cover near the Equatorial International Dateline (which indicates Walker Cell activity weakly supporting El Nino conditions).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 07, 2016, 06:22:33 PM
I had to dig down really deep, but I managed to find following tweet from Eric Webb where he's posting the top ENSO years. See: https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/673935388717789184 (https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/673935388717789184)

What is interesting wrt the current El Niño is the triplet of El Niño in 1939-1942. If you look at the pic Webb is showing you'll find both 1940 and 1941 in the top. This should be the most long-lived El Niño. Interestingly, it arrived around the same time as the PDO started to turn negative for a couple of decades. But it did push the global temps to record highs which peaked in 1944. From 1945 and onwards, lower global temps were apparent and the record high from 1944 wasn't broken until 1980 (according to NASAs values).

Maybe someone know where the full data set with ONI values for the years 1870-2015 is available?

Two additional interesting tweets from Webb: https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/666015043092422656 (https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/666015043092422656)

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/663021244237918208 (https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/663021244237918208)

Best, LMV
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on March 07, 2016, 09:19:43 PM
Latest NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble) forecast for Nino 3.4 index:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2FNMME%2Fcurrent%2Fimages%2Fnino34.rescaling.ENSMEAN.png&hash=b2a0e5054b5b0cdff9fd11c3f5cd7add)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/plume.html (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/plume.html)

Animation from April to September 2016 with 1-month time step:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F36P2HOw.gif&hash=b24669dc0429be5150cfdab911c60d53)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 08, 2016, 12:09:10 AM
Latest NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble) forecast for Nino 3.4 index:

This NMME forecast does not seem unreasonable (although not as bullish as the attached CFSv2 PDF corrected Nino 3.4 forecast issued today); however, I note that the NMME forecast shows ENSO neutral conditions by Fall 2016.  So it seems that a La Nina event in the Fall of 2016 is less likely than projected earlier this year by the Plume Ensemble.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 08, 2016, 02:58:21 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, for the fourth day in a row, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -22.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 08, 2016, 04:58:11 PM
The linked reference uses CMIP5 projections to estimate that increases in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations accelerate during El Nino events due to reductions in terrestrial productivity:

Jin-Soo Kim, Jong-Seong Kug, Jin-Ho Yoon and Su-Jong Jeong (2016), "Increased atmospheric CO2 growth rate during El Niño driven by reduced terrestrial productivity in the CMIP5 ESMs", Journal of Climate, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00672.1 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00672.1)


http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00672.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00672.1)


Abstract: "Better understanding of factors that control the global carbon cycle could increase confidence in climate projections. Previous studies found good correlation between the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 concentration and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Growth rate of atmospheric CO2 increases during El Niño but decreases during La Niña. In this study, long-term simulations of the Earth System Models (ESMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive were used to examine the interannual carbon flux variability associated with ENSO. The ESMs simulate the relationship reasonably well with a delay of several months between ENSO and the changes in atmospheric CO2. The increase in atmospheric CO2 associated with El Niño is mostly caused by decreasing Net Primary Production (NPP) in the ESMs. It is suggested that NPP anomalies over South Asia are at their maxima during boreal spring; therefore, the increase in CO2 concentration lags four to five months behind the peak phase of El Niño. The decrease in NPP during El Niño may be caused by decreased precipitation and increased temperature over tropical regions. Furthermore, systematic errors may exist in the ESM-simulated temperature responses to ENSO phases over tropical land areas, and these errors may lead to overestimation of ENSO-related NPP anomalies. In contrast, carbon fluxes from heterotrophic respiration and natural fires are likely underestimated in the ESMs compared with offline model results and observational estimates, respectively. These uncertainties should be considered in long-term projections that include climate–carbon feedbacks."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 08, 2016, 06:30:29 PM
The first image shows BoM's POAMA Nino 3.4 forecast with Feb 28 2016 initial conditions, which projects neutral ENSO conditions in the Fall of 2016.

The second image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from March 8 to 15 2016, which is less bullish (for reinforcing El Nino conditions) than yesterday's forecast.

The third image shows TAO's Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for March 8 2016, showing that while the current weak downwelling pulse has stopped the recent upwelling activity; this plot also implies that the current downwelling pulse may be too weak to quickly eliminate the relatively cool water that was upwelled into the Nino 3.4 area last week.

The fourth image shows the ECMF MJO forecast from March 8 to 22 2016, which is less bullish (for reinforcing El Nino conditions) than yesterday's forecast, which raises the possibility that in about 7-days time the MJO could become destructive to El Nino conditions.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on March 08, 2016, 07:54:48 PM
Latest NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble) forecast for Nino 3.4 index:

This NMME forecast does not seem unreasonable (although not as bullish as the attached CFSv2 PDF corrected Nino 3.4 forecast issued today); however, I note that the NMME forecast shows ENSO neutral conditions by Fall 2016.  So it seems that a La Nina event in the Fall of 2016 is less likely than projected earlier this year by the Plume Ensemble.

The image below compares the NMME forecast for Niño 3.4 that was issued in early February (left image) with the one that was issued yesterday (right image).  The multi-model mean (dashed black line) is similar in both cases: it shows ENSO neutral conditions by June 2016, and from July 2016 onwards it is plateauing slightly above the La Niña threshold of -0.5°C.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FxCQQ1sx.png&hash=2002bfc90fe42742998d28a24edfe9de)
 (click image to enlarge)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on March 08, 2016, 08:00:30 PM
The Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for January-February 2016 (2-month average) came in at +2.12:


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.esrl.noaa.gov%2Fpsd%2Fenso%2Fmei%2Fcomp.png&hash=61d825f05dbea057d0af8b450786b040)

Quote
Compared to last month, the updated (January-February) MEI has decreased slightly (by 0.08) to +2.12, continuing at the 3rd highest ranking, but falling further behind 1983 and 1998, compared to earlier this season. ...  The evolution of the 2015-16 El Niño is now slightly more similar to 1965-66 than to 1997-98, as monitored by the MEI. This means that the odds of having a second peak in late winter/early spring have collapsed to zero.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/#discussion (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/#discussion)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: islandraider on March 08, 2016, 08:11:04 PM
Related to ASLR's comment above regarding CO2 concentrations increasing during El Nino years:

CO2 concentration February 2016: 404.16 ppm
CO2 concentration February 2015: 400.31 ppm
Year-on-year increase in CO2 concentration: 3.85 ppm

Faster than expected.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 09, 2016, 04:06:27 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -22.0 for a fifth day in a row:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 09, 2016, 04:33:00 PM
The first image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom circa March 9 2016, showing that this value is once again declining (at a much slower rate than last week).

The second image shows TAO's Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for March 9 2016 showing that while the weak downwelling pulse continues to slowly gain strength, the Eq Pac eastward of the downwelling pulse is dissipating upper ocean heat content faster than the downwelling pulse is continuing (thus explaining the first image).

The third image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from March 9 to 16 2016, indicating that while the WWB will not return within the next week, nevertheless neither will the trade winds.

The fourth image shows NOAA's modeled Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom plot for March 4 2016, which shows a larger area than the TAO's observed data.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 09, 2016, 04:44:53 PM
The two attached images (from Clivar) show the MJO forecasts from March 9 to 23 2016 for the NCPB and the ECMF, cases respectively.  The two forecasts are essentially the same for the next six days and thereafter NOAA's forecast is more bullish (for El Nino conditions) than the European Centre (which shows the MJO becoming destructive as it enters the west end of the Maritime Continent).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 09, 2016, 05:06:47 PM
The first attached image shows the U of Colorado's GMSL vs MEI plot through about Oct 21 2016, indicating that during the 2015-16 El Nino GMSL rose much more than during the 1997-98 El Nino; which to me indicates that we are now in period when climate change is having a major impact on sea level rise (due both to increased rainfall in the ocean and increased melting of land ice).

The second image shows the U of Colorado's GMSL data through approximately the end of 2015, showing that GMSL continued to rise after Oct 2015.

The third image shows the Aviso GMSL data through Dec 24 2015, showing that the U of Colorado data may either ESLD or cherry picked a date for their last data point to correspond with a temporary downward fluctuation (as on Dec 24 2015 the Aviso data was fluctuating upward).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on March 09, 2016, 08:27:35 PM
The second image shows the U of Colorado's GMSL data through approximately the end of 2015, showing that GMSL continued to rise after Oct 2015.

The third image shows the Aviso GMSL data through Dec 24 2015, showing that the U of Colorado data may either ESLD or cherry picked a date for their last data point to correspond with a temporary downward fluctuation (as on Dec 24 2015 the Aviso data was fluctuating upward).

According to the data on the University of Colorado website,  the global mean sea level peaked in mid-October 2015 (more precisely, date 2015.791) and decreased somewhat at the end of 2015.  This is in line with the fact that the strength of the current El Niño peaked in about November 2015.


http://sealevel.colorado.edu/files/2016_rel1/sl_ns_global.txt (http://sealevel.colorado.edu/files/2016_rel1/sl_ns_global.txt)
http://sealevel.colorado.edu (http://sealevel.colorado.edu)

    Date          Global mean sea level (millimeters) (seasonal signals removed)
2015.5196     72.910
2015.5467     72.841
2015.5739     74.661
2015.6010     77.431
2015.6281     78.319
2015.6553     79.259
2015.6824     77.904
2015.7096     75.077
2015.7367     75.954
2015.7639     80.615
2015.7910    82.353
2015.8182     82.322
2015.8453     77.204
2015.8725     74.061
2015.8996     78.798
2015.9268     80.957
2015.9539     79.313
2015.9811     75.886
2016.0082     72.107

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fd7vzzP4.png&hash=b6f180877018ad4c07f782919a81bbe9)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 09, 2016, 09:12:17 PM
The U of Colorado sea level data is seasonally adjusted while it appears that the following Aviso data is not, and it also shows a peak sea level of 8.446479e-02 at mid-October (which is meaningful before the El Nino peak) followed by a drop in sea level down to 8.244981e-02 by late November (near the El Nino peak), followed by an increase up to 8.392903e-02 by December 24 2015:

2015.571978 7.983945e-02
2015.599126 8.062358e-02
2015.626273 8.139951e-02
2015.653421 8.182920e-02
2015.680568 8.202416e-02
2015.707716 8.237811e-02
2015.734863 8.308479e-02
2015.762011 8.391971e-02
2015.789159 8.446479e-02
2015.816306 8.440208e-02
2015.843454 8.372341e-02
2015.870601 8.287790e-02
2015.897749 8.244981e-02
2015.924896 8.262044e-02
2015.952044 8.320409e-02
2015.979191 8.392903e-02


Edit: I also note that as per the U of Colorado sea level in January 2015 was as low as 62.335mm, their data indicates over a 1cm rise in sea level from mid-January to mid-October 2015.

Edit 2: While there are several different ways to measure a peak El Nino, but one way is via the weekly NOAA Nino 3.4 index; which per the following data occurred during the week centered on Nov 18 2015:



                      Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA   SST SSTA   SST SSTA

 07OCT2015     23.4 2.7     27.7 2.8     29.1 2.4     29.7 1.0
 14OCT2015     23.3 2.5     27.5 2.6     29.1 2.4     29.7 1.1
 21OCT2015     23.1 2.2     27.5 2.6     29.2 2.5     29.9 1.3
 28OCT2015     23.4 2.3     27.7 2.8     29.4 2.7     30.0 1.4
 04NOV2015     23.4 2.1     27.8 2.8     29.5 2.8     30.3 1.7
 11NOV2015     23.5 2.0     27.9 3.0     29.7 3.0     30.3 1.7
 18NOV2015     23.8 2.1     28.0 3.0     29.7 3.1     30.4 1.8
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 10, 2016, 02:50:22 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -21.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on March 10, 2016, 01:29:47 PM
Thought some of ye might find this interesting.

Science AMA Series: Hi, Reddit! I'm Kris Karnauskas, a professor at the University of Colorado and Editor of AGU's Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. I'm here to talk with you about oceanography and climate science.approved by Doomhammer458 28 minutes ago (self.science)T
submitted 28 minutes ago by AmGeophysicalU-AMA [+1]American Geophysical Union AMA Guest N H

Hello! I'm Kris Karnauskas, faculty member at the University of Colorado Boulder's (http://www.colorado.edu (http://www.colorado.edu)) Department of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences (http://www.colorado.edu/atoc/ (http://www.colorado.edu/atoc/)) and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (http://cires.colorado.edu/ (http://cires.colorado.edu/)). I’m also an editor of AGU's Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans (http://tinyurl.com/ztaob5k (http://tinyurl.com/ztaob5k)). I lead the Oceans & Climate Lab (http://www.colorado.edu/oclab/ (http://www.colorado.edu/oclab/)), which aims to understand what makes the climate system tick, the role of the ocean in climate, and what are the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and human society. My team just published a study about some ongoing changes in the Pacific Ocean near the equator (http://tinyurl.com/gohynr9 (http://tinyurl.com/gohynr9)), and what they mean for penguins hanging in the balance. With one of the strongest El Nino events in recorded history peaking just last month, it has been an incredibly exciting year to be an oceanographer and climate scientist!
Talk to you soon!
I’ll be back at 12 pm EST (9 am PST, 7 pm UTC) to answer your questions, ask me anything!

Link is here https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/49t5gf/science_ama_series_hi_reddit_im_kris_karnauskas_a/ (https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/49t5gf/science_ama_series_hi_reddit_im_kris_karnauskas_a/)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 10, 2016, 04:37:15 PM
As I will be out of pocket for most of today, and as the MJO and WWB situations have not changed much, I only provide the attached TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom Profile for March 10 2016, showing that the upper ocean heat content continues to drop as that the downwelling pulse is insufficient to infuse sufficient new heat to counter act the heat being dissipated:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 10, 2016, 04:51:31 PM
Here  is a very interesting tweet from Eric Blake wrt the TAO pic comparing 97-98 and 15-16. It's also much better as the scale is limited to 200 m depth. See: https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/707241335175127041 (https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/707241335175127041)

So far, we are behind 97-98.

//LMV
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on March 10, 2016, 05:07:05 PM
The U of Colorado sea level data is seasonally adjusted while it appears that the following Aviso data is not, and it also shows a peak sea level of 8.446479e-02 at mid-October (which is meaningful before the El Nino peak) followed by a drop in sea level down to 8.244981e-02 by late November (near the El Nino peak), followed by an increase up to 8.392903e-02 by December 24 2015:

2015.571978 7.983945e-02
2015.599126 8.062358e-02
2015.626273 8.139951e-02
2015.653421 8.182920e-02
2015.680568 8.202416e-02
2015.707716 8.237811e-02
2015.734863 8.308479e-02
2015.762011 8.391971e-02
2015.789159 8.446479e-02
2015.816306 8.440208e-02
2015.843454 8.372341e-02
2015.870601 8.287790e-02
2015.897749 8.244981e-02
2015.924896 8.262044e-02
2015.952044 8.320409e-02
2015.979191 8.392903e-02

The table below compares the latest Aviso data (rightmost column of the table) with the ones that were posted in the sea level thread of this forum on 2 March 2016 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,874.msg71094.html#msg71094) (middle column):
 
      Date                 Recent Aviso data (centimeters)
2015.571978      7.983224     7.983945             
2015.599126      8.061223     8.062358
2015.626273      8.138412     8.139951
2015.653421      8.180773     8.18292
2015.680568      8.199674     8.202416
2015.707716      8.234852     8.237811
2015.734863      8.308320     8.308479
2015.762011      8.400241     8.391971
2015.789159      8.458516     8.446479
2015.816306      8.434915     8.440208
2015.843454      8.344596     8.372341
2015.870601      8.267728     8.28779
2015.897749      8.262383     8.244981
2015.924896      8.329785    8.262044
2015.952044      8.447426    8.320409
2015.979191                           8.392903


The data shown in boldface in the middle column were revised downward substantially in the last update (compare with the corresponding values in the rightmost column).  So it looks like the last few data points of the Aviso dataset are very preliminary and can be expected to be revised substantially.

Apparently the Aviso data are also adjusted for seasonal signals.  At their website they say that they use a "low-pass filter in order to remove signals of less than 2 months or 6 months, and the annual and semi-annual periodic signals are also adjusted".

Anyway, it is still possible that the October 2015 peak value for global mean sea level is exceeded by a higher peak in early 2016.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Wouter on March 10, 2016, 07:25:32 PM
I was thinking about the strength of the 2015-2016 El Niño compared to the other years. On the figure you see 6 graphs. Upper graphs: Nino3.4-index. Middle graphs: MEI-index. Lower graphs: SOI-index (lower values = stronger El Niño). Left side: data values, compared to the 1950-2015 baseline. Right side: data values, detrended and compared to the 1950-2015 baseline.
Blue: 1982-1983
Red: 1997-1998
Green: 2015-2016

The 2015-2016 is the strongest one on the Nino3.4-index, as long as it is not detrended. When looking at the MEI it is only third, and loses on the other years due to detrending. For the SOI detrending has almost no effect (no trend), and 2015-2016 is clearly not the strongest.

As a result, I would say that the El Niño of this year is slightly less strong than the two other monsters, but seems stronger due to the climate change induced warming of the oceans.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 11, 2016, 03:51:25 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -21.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 11, 2016, 08:24:05 AM
Latest PDO-value from February is in at +1,75. Only behind 2015 (+2,30) and 1941 (+2,07). An oddity is that four (!) years all have had a February value at +1,75. These years are 2016, 2003, 1987 ad 1936. After these years we find 1940 (+1,74) and 1927 (+1,73).

//LMV
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 11, 2016, 05:54:43 PM
The first two images show the MJO forecasts from March 11 to 25 2016 for the NCPB and the ECMF, cases respectively.  These forecasts both indicate that for about the next 7 days the MJO will be weak, and thereafter will strength near the middle of the Maritime Continent and will then move eastward toward the Western Pacific (where it might again become constructive to strengthening El Nino conditions).

The third image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom circa March 11 2016, indicating that this value continues to relatively slowly decrease.

The fourth image shows TAO's Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for March 11 2016, indicating that the downwelling pulse continues to move eastward (warming the Nino 4 region as it goes); but that the heat in the Eastern Eq Pac. is dissipating energy faster than the new downwelling pulse is delivering new heat.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 11, 2016, 08:17:17 PM
The linked (open access) reference indicates that with continued warming westerly winds above the equator may increase in intensity:

Henrik Carlson & Rodrigo Caballero (6 March 2016), "Enhanced MJO and transition to superrotation in warm climates", JAMES, DOI: 10.1002/2015MS000615


http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015MS000615/full (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015MS000615/full)

Abstract: "Using the NCAR CAM3 model in aquaplanet configuration, we perform a suite of simulations spanning a broad range of warm climates. The simulations show a spontaneous transition to superrotation, i.e., westerly winds at upper levels above the equator. The momentum convergence leading to superrotation is driven by eastward-propagating equatorial waves with structure similar to the modern Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), whose amplitude increases strongly with temperature. We analyze the moist static energy (MSE) budget of the model's MJO to identify mechanisms leading to its enhanced amplitude. Two such mechanisms are identified: a rapid increase of mean low-level MSE with rising temperature, as found in previous work, and reduced damping of the MJO by synoptic-scale eddies. Both effects imply a reduced gross moist stability and enhanced MJO amplitude. The reduced eddy damping is caused by the transition to superrotation, which allows a greater penetration of extratropical eddies into the equatorial zone; the dominant effect of this greater penetration is to flatten the meridional gradient zonal-mean MSE, which effectively impedes the generation of anomalous MSE divergence by MJO-modulated eddies. This mechanism implies a positive feedback between superrotation and the MJO which may hasten the transition into a strongly superrotating state."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 12, 2016, 02:21:43 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved back down to -21.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 12, 2016, 05:56:05 PM
The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for March 12 2016, which indicates to me that the recent downwelling pulse is still strengthening, but it appears to be pushing a submerged "wave" of cool intermediate water ahead of it that is causing the NOAA Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom plot circa March 12 2016, shown in the second image, to continue to decline slowly.

The last two images show the NCPB and ECMF MJO forecasts form March 12 to 26 2016, respectively.  These two plots both show the MJO remaining relatively weak for about the next 7-days (indicating that the daily SOI may remain neutral over that 7-day period).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 13, 2016, 02:22:14 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -22.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 13, 2016, 06:42:28 PM
The first image shows NOAA's modeled Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for March 9 2016, showing that the Eq Pac remains in a weakening El Nino configuration; which is confirmed by the second attached image of the TAO observed Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for March 13 2016.  This raises the possibility that another intense WWB episode towards the end of April (or beginning of May) might (or might not) result in another downwelling pulse that might (or might not) sustain a weak El Nino condition into the boreal Summer of 2016.

The last two images show the MJO forecast from March 13 to 27 2016 for the NCPB, and the ECMF, cases respectively.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 14, 2016, 02:25:53 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued dropping down to -22.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 14, 2016, 04:25:30 PM
The first image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom circa March 14 2016, showing a continuing slow decline.

The second images shows TAO's Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for March 14 2016, confirming the slow decline in Upper Ocean heat content, but showing that the SSTA are not declining as rapidly as the Upper Ocean heat content.

The last two images show the MJO forecasts from March 14 to 28 2016 for the NCPB, and the ECMF, respectively.  This shows that the MJO is a little bit disruptive to negative SOI values and will become increasingly disruptive to negative SOI values for at least the next one, to two, week(s).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 14, 2016, 07:07:07 PM
First, the following Nino index data issued today by NOAA for the week centered on March 9 2016, shows both Nino 3 and 3.4 slowly decreasing and Nino 1+2 and 4, increasing slightly:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 06JAN2016     25.7 1.8     28.1 2.7     29.1 2.6     29.7 1.4
 13JAN2016     25.7 1.4     28.3 2.8     29.2 2.6     29.6 1.3
 20JAN2016     26.0 1.4     28.2 2.5     29.1 2.5     29.6 1.4
 27JAN2016     26.1 1.0     28.2 2.3     29.1 2.5     29.7 1.5
 03FEB2016     26.6 1.2     28.3 2.2     29.3 2.6     29.6 1.5
 10FEB2016     26.5 0.7     28.3 2.0     29.2 2.5     29.6 1.5
 17FEB2016     26.6 0.5     28.3 1.9     29.1 2.4     29.5 1.4
 24FEB2016     27.1 0.9     28.4 1.8     29.0 2.1     29.5 1.4
 02MAR2016     27.3 1.0     28.6 1.8     28.9 1.9     29.5 1.4
 09MAR2016     27.7 1.2     28.6 1.6     28.9 1.8     29.6 1.5



Secondly, I think that the attached Tropical Tidbit image of the SSTA for March 14 2016, illustrates that since the week centered on March 9 2016:

1) The Nino 3 and 3.4 values are continuing to drop slowly & have been effected by the recently terminated upwelling event in these areas.

2) Then Nino 1+2 value is now dropping relatively quickly.

3) The Nino 4 index is now slowly dropping; however, the SSTA to the west of the Nino 4 region remains relatively warm, which raises the possibility that another WWB event (possibly MJO driven) could trigger another eastward propagating downwelling pulse by the end of April (or so).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 14, 2016, 07:18:38 PM
The four attached Nino indices were issued today by the BoM for the week ending March 13 2016, and all indicate relatively neutral changes in the Nino 1, 2, 3 and 4 indices, respectively.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 14, 2016, 07:24:58 PM
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM.

The first image shows the POAMA Nino 3.4 forecast started on March 13 2016; which, is much more bullish for neutral (or possibly weak El Nino) conditions by the boreal Fall of 2016; which translates into a significantly lower probability for La Nina conditions in the same timeframe.

The second image shows the Equatorial Dateline Cloud Cover, which is increasing (which is supportive of atmospheric conditions that weakly support El Nino conditions, thus increasing the probability of relatively slow degradation of El Nino conditions this week).

The third image shows the IOD & the Nino 3.4 indices for the week ending March 13 2016, indicating a neutral (but negative) IOD, and a declining Nino 3.4.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 14, 2016, 07:38:11 PM
The four attached images were all issued today by NOAA.

The first image shows the Eq Pac SSTA Evolution, showing a slow degradation of El Nino conditions.

The second image shows the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom Evolution, showing that we may be near the bottom of the current upwelling trough.

The third image shows the 850-hPa Wind Anom Evolution, showing how relatively weak the recent WWB was relative to earlier events on the plot.

The fourth image shows four recent NOAA Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom profiles, showing how slowly the recent degradation in El Nino supporting oceanic conditions have occurred.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 14, 2016, 09:20:07 PM
The Washington Post offers the linked article about the Feb 2016 GMST spike, and the offer the attached image of NASA surface temp anoms (referenced to a 1951-1980 baseline), sub-divided between Meteorological Stations and Land-Ocean Temperature Index data through Feb 2016:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/03/14/the-planet-had-its-biggest-temperature-spike-in-modern-history-in-february/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/03/14/the-planet-had-its-biggest-temperature-spike-in-modern-history-in-february/)

Edit: I placed this post here by accident, so I will leave it here and also re-post it to the GMST thread.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 15, 2016, 02:21:53 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -21.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 15, 2016, 05:00:02 PM
While none of the attached images look particularly bullish for weak El Nino conditions this summer; I still maintain that there is a chance that by the end of April, the MJO might trigger sufficient WWB activity to develop a new downwelling EKW pulse by early May.  If so this would greatly increase the chances of maintain weak El Nino conditions for early summer.

The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom profile for March 15 2016.

The second image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from March 15 to 22 2016.

The last two images show the MJO forecast from March 15 to 29 2016, for the NCPB, and the ECMF, cases respectively.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 15, 2016, 06:09:24 PM
The following linked reference presenting the most current thinking about how to characterize the PDO, could go into several different threads; but I put it here because the impact of the PDO has been discussed extensively here:

Matthew Newman, Michael A. Alexander, Toby R. Ault, Kim M. Cobb, Clara Deser, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Nathan J. Mantua, Arthur J. Miller, Shoshiro Minobe, Hisashi Nakamura, Niklas Schneider, Daniel J. Vimont, Adam S. Phillips, James D. Scott, and Catherine A. Smith (2016), "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited", Journal of Climate, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0508.1 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0508.1)

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0508.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0508.1)

Abstract: "The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the dominant year-round pattern of monthly North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, is an important target of ongoing research within the meteorological and climate dynamics communities, and is central to the work of many geologists, ecologists, natural resource managers, and social scientists. Research over the last fifteen years has led to an emerging consensus: the PDO is not a single phenomenon, but is instead the result of a combination of different physical processes, including both remote tropical forcing and local North Pacific atmosphere/ocean interactions, which operate on different timescales to drive similar PDO-like SST anomaly patterns. How these processes combine to generate observed PDO evolution, including apparent regime shifts, is shown using simple autoregressive models of increasing spatial complexity. Simulations of recent climate in coupled GCMs are able to capture many aspects of the PDO, but do so based on a balance of processes often more independent of the Tropics than is observed. Finally, it is suggested that assessment of PDO-related regional climate impacts, reconstruction of PDO-related variability into the past with proxy records, and diagnosis of Pacific variability within coupled GCMs should all account for the effects of these different processes, which only partly represent direct forcing of the atmosphere by North Pacific Ocean SSTs."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 15, 2016, 06:34:15 PM
The linked article provides a summary of many of the global impacts of the 2015-2016 El Nino:

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/monster-el-nino-transforms-worlds-weather-20138 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/monster-el-nino-transforms-worlds-weather-20138)

Extract: "From crippling drought in southern Africa to a record number of February tornadoes in the U.S. Southeast, an exceptionally strong El Niño has been making headlines around the globe as it tampers with the world’s weather.

While the event has begun its slow decline, those wide-ranging impacts will continue to be felt for weeks and months to come — good news for those in California, who need El Niño-fueled rains, but bad news for the many areas, like Indonesia, which is suffering from deep drought, food and water shortages, and wildfires.

Already this year, El Niño-related weather has cost billions of dollars in damage and left some 100 million people facing food and water shortages."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 15, 2016, 07:40:10 PM
Interesting to see that the cool area in the eastern Pacific has shrunk. OTOH, the cool area in the western Pacific seems to have grown with two small areas of -4.

According to ECMWFs latest forecast for the Niño 3.4 - area the majority favors cool neutral or weak La Niña conditions by early fall.

See: http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/nino-plumes-public-charts-long-range-forecast?time=2016030100,0,2016030100&nino_area=3.4&forecast_type_and_skill_measure=plumes (http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/nino-plumes-public-charts-long-range-forecast?time=2016030100,0,2016030100&nino_area=3.4&forecast_type_and_skill_measure=plumes)

Best, LMV
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 15, 2016, 08:04:47 PM
Interesting to see that the cool area in the eastern Pacific has shrunk. OTOH, the cool area in the western Pacific seems to have grown with two small areas of -4.

According to ECMWFs latest forecast for the Niño 3.4 - area the majority favors cool neutral or weak La Niña conditions by early fall.

See: http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/nino-plumes-public-charts-long-range-forecast?time=2016030100,0,2016030100&nino_area=3.4&forecast_type_and_skill_measure=plumes (http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/nino-plumes-public-charts-long-range-forecast?time=2016030100,0,2016030100&nino_area=3.4&forecast_type_and_skill_measure=plumes)

Best, LMV

I note that the ECMWF Nino 3.4 forecast cited by LVM is based on March 1 2016 conditions, while the WWB was still on-going (thus that forecast likely does not consider the success of the downwelling pulse at stopping the upwelling of cooler waters).  Both the POAMA Nino 3.4 started March 13 (that I posted earlier in Reply #420) and the attached corrected CFSv2 Nino 3.4 issued on March 15 2016, are more bullish for either neutral or weak El Nino conditions in the second half of 2016:

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 16, 2016, 02:16:51 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -20.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 16, 2016, 05:02:57 PM
As I have observed that when the active phase of the MJO is in the Maritime Continent, the European Centre forecasts tend to show more skill, the first two images show the MJO forecasts from March 16 to 30 2016 for the ECMF, and the corrected ECMM, respectively.  These plots show that the MJO is now disruptive to El Nino conditions, so we can expect the SOI to plunge upward (less negative) for the next couple of weeks.

The third image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for March 16 2016, showing that the weak downwelling pulse is slowing down, but is still keeping the deep cool water from upwelling.

The fourth image shows the NOAA Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom circa March 16 2016, showing that this value is currently still dropping slowly.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on March 16, 2016, 06:43:05 PM
The BoM updated today their summary of international climate model outlooks for Nino 3.4:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean)

April 2016:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bom.gov.au%2Fclimate%2Fmodel-summary%2Farchive%2F20160316.nino_summary_2.png&hash=7efb720cd4d4e909814e4d576679c914)

June 2016:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bom.gov.au%2Fclimate%2Fmodel-summary%2Farchive%2F20160316.nino_summary_4.png&hash=3332ae73ecda8f58e4f7fa3ca984c3ca)

August 2016:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bom.gov.au%2Fclimate%2Fmodel-summary%2Farchive%2F20160316.nino_summary_6.png&hash=dc43ccda14cdc7e49c5d18c1697f1c23)

Multi-model mean for April 2016 (left), June (middle) and August 2016 (right):

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FpveuxKP.png&hash=9baaa04a69f07bc26583746f6b565a51)

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 17, 2016, 02:20:44 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has started its upward plunge and is now at -19.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 17, 2016, 04:13:51 PM
The linked article indicates that more than 36 million people currently face hunger across Sub-Saharan Africa due to a combination of our Super El Nino and climate change.  If we have a weak El Nino this boreal summer we could see similar famines in South Asia due to a potential failure in the summer monsoons.


http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/16/drought-high-temperatures-el-nino-36m-people-africa-hunger (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/16/drought-high-temperatures-el-nino-36m-people-africa-hunger)


Extract: "More than 36 million people face hunger across southern and eastern Africa, the United Nations has warned, as swaths of the continent grapple with the worst drought in decades at a time of record high temperatures.
The immediate cause of the drought which has crippled countries from Ethiopia to Zimbabwe is one of the strongest El Niño events ever recorded. It has turned normal weather patterns upside down around the globe, climate scientists say.
But with the world still reeling from record-high temperatures in February, there are fears that the long-term impacts of climate change are also undermining the region’s ability to endure extremes in weather, leaving huge numbers of people vulnerable to hunger and disease.
The worst hit country in the current crisis is Ethiopia, where rains vital to four-fifths of the country’s crops have failed. Unicef has said it is making plans to treat more than 2 million children for malnutrition, and says more than 10 million people will need food aid.
“Ethiopia has been hit by a double blow, both from a change to the rainy seasons that have been linked to long-term climate change and now from El Niño, which has potentially led the country to one of the worst droughts in decades,” said Gillian Mellsop, Unicef representative to Ethiopia."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 17, 2016, 05:08:40 PM
The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for March 17 2016, indicating that the downwelling pulse is weakening and the warm surface layer is thinning.

The second image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom circa March 17 2016, indicating that this value could soon turn negative, and indeed NOAA has increased their La Nina forecast to a 50-50 probability by Fall of 2016.

The last two images show the MJO forecasts from March 17 to 31 2016, for the ECMF, and ECMM (corrected), cases respectively.  Both of this forecasts indicate that for more than a week the MJO will be disruptive to El Nino conditions so we can expect the SOI to continue plunging upward.  Nevertheless, the ECMM raises the possibility of MJO driven WWB activity in April 2016.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on March 17, 2016, 08:50:37 PM
Latest IRI ENSO predictions plume:
http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table (http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table)


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Firi.columbia.edu%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2016%2F03%2Ffigure4.gif&hash=acb40df93061ef72f1490b0256002252)

...and precipitation outlook for the next few months:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FLSmx8Pt.png&hash=97ca5ff7ce7a114960bab7bfce47b48a)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Michael Hauber on March 18, 2016, 12:54:43 AM
The linked article indicates that more than 36 million people currently face hunger across Sub-Saharan Africa due to a combination of our Super El Nino and climate change.  If we have a weak El Nino this boreal summer we could see similar famines in South Asia due to a potential failure in the summer monsoons.


http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/16/drought-high-temperatures-el-nino-36m-people-africa-hunger (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/16/drought-high-temperatures-el-nino-36m-people-africa-hunger)


Extract: "More than 36 million people face hunger across southern and eastern Africa, the United Nations has warned, as swaths of the continent grapple with the worst drought in decades at a time of record high temperatures.
The immediate cause of the drought which has crippled countries from Ethiopia to Zimbabwe is one of the strongest El Niño events ever recorded. It has turned normal weather patterns upside down around the globe, climate scientists say.
But with the world still reeling from record-high temperatures in February, there are fears that the long-term impacts of climate change are also undermining the region’s ability to endure extremes in weather, leaving huge numbers of people vulnerable to hunger and disease.
The worst hit country in the current crisis is Ethiopia, where rains vital to four-fifths of the country’s crops have failed. Unicef has said it is making plans to treat more than 2 million children for malnutrition, and says more than 10 million people will need food aid.
“Ethiopia has been hit by a double blow, both from a change to the rainy seasons that have been linked to long-term climate change and now from El Niño, which has potentially led the country to one of the worst droughts in decades,” said Gillian Mellsop, Unicef representative to Ethiopia."

The normal rainfall patterns during an el nino are for enhanced rainfall in eastern Africa, and reduced rainfall in western and southern Africa.  google scholar search (https://scholar.google.com.au/scholar?q=enso+rainfall+africa&btnG=&hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&as_vis=1)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 18, 2016, 02:33:47 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued its sharp upward plunge to -17.4:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Tor Bejnar on March 18, 2016, 02:47:28 PM
I think of things "plunging" downwards and "soaring" upwards, but I'm enjoying ASLR's usage.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 18, 2016, 04:33:31 PM
I think of things "plunging" downwards and "soaring" upwards, but I'm enjoying ASLR's usage.

I will use "surge" up in the future.

Now, the first image shows the NOAA Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued March 18 2016, showing that this value may be reaching a plateau slightly above zero; which might indicate that we have reached the bottom of the current trough.

The second image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for March 18 2016, showing that the warm surface layer thinned slightly from yesterday but appears stable.

The last two images show the MJO forecast from March 18 to April 1 2016 for the ECMF, and the corrected ECMM, cases respectively.  While showing that the active phase of the MJO is currently destructive to El Nino conditions, particularly the ECMM forecast raises the possibility that some time in April, a MJO driven WWB event might (or might not) occur.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 18, 2016, 06:28:42 PM
ASLR, I like plunging and soaring so use them if you want to! :)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 19, 2016, 02:19:16 AM
ASLR, I like plunging and soaring so use them if you want to! :)

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -15.4:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 19, 2016, 06:39:09 PM
The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for March 19 2016, showing temporarily plateaued conditions.

The second image show the UatA 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from March 19 to 26 2016 showing some minor WWB activity in the Western Eq Pac.

The third image shows the ECMM MJO forecast from March 19 to April 2 2016; indicating that the SOI should continue to become less negative for at least a week, and then might (or might not) become relatively neutral.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 20, 2016, 02:33:53 AM
The attached plot was issued today by the BoM & it indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -14.3:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 20, 2016, 06:36:24 PM
The first image shows the ECMM MJO forecast from March 20 to April 3 2016, indicating that currently the MJO is destructive to El Nino conditions, but retains a small chance that MJO might (or might not) increase as it moves eastward toward the International Dateline (which if it were to occur might produce a relatively intense WWB, or not).

The second image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom plot issued March 20 2016 showing that this value is now essentially at zero (or slightly negative).

The third image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from March 20 to 27 2016, indicating near-term weak WWB activity in the Western Eq Pac.

The four images shows the Earth 850-hPa Wind and MSLP Map for March 20, 2016; which both confirms the weak WWB activity west of the International Dateline, and indicates as weak daily SOI (which means that the 30-day moving average SOI should move upwards rapidly as highly negative values from 30-days ago are leaving the moving average)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 20, 2016, 06:41:05 PM
The attached U of Colorado image was issued on March 9 2016 and compares the detrended GMSL with the normalized MEI.  While this plot does confirm the correlation between these two values, it also illustrates both: (a) how different the 97-98 Super El Nino event was from our current Super El Nino event; and (b) that the recent detrended GMSL values represent the highest anomalies in the observed record (indicating that the impacts of the current Super El Nino are piggybacked on top of significant global warming contributions the GMSL).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 20, 2016, 07:16:50 PM
El Niño Upsets Seasons and Upends Lives Worldwide
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/20/science/el-nino-upsets-seasons-and-upends-lives-worldwide.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/20/science/el-nino-upsets-seasons-and-upends-lives-worldwide.html)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 21, 2016, 02:24:29 AM
I am a little surprised to note that per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -14.3:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 21, 2016, 03:33:36 PM
Per the following NOAA Weekly Nino data for the week centered on March 16 2016, the Nino 1+2, 3.4 and 4 indices have all dropped slightly, while the Nino 3 index increased slightly.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 24FEB2016     27.1 0.9     28.4 1.8     29.0 2.1     29.5 1.4
 02MAR2016     27.3 1.0     28.6 1.8     28.9 1.9     29.5 1.4
 09MAR2016     27.7 1.2     28.6 1.6     28.9 1.8     29.6 1.5
 16MAR2016     27.5 1.0     28.8 1.7     28.9 1.7     29.6 1.4

The first two images we issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac Evolutions of the SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively; which correlates well with the weekly Nino indices given above.

The third image was issued by NOAA today for the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom, indicating that this values is slowly becoming more negative.

The fourth image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for March 21 2016; which matches all of the above information.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 21, 2016, 03:37:09 PM
The four attached images show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, for the week ending March 20 2016.  The trends shown in these plots seem to roughly parallel the previously posted NOAA data.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 21, 2016, 03:46:22 PM
The first two attached images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending March 2016, for the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, indices respectively.  The Nino 3.4 has dropped while the IOD increased.

The third image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from March 21 to 28 2016, showing weak westerly wind activity in the Western Eq Pac.

The fourth image shows the ECMM (corrected) MJO forecast from March 21 to April 4 2016; showing that the MJO continues to slowly move towards the Western Pacific; and is currently acting destructively to atmospheric conditions that might reinforce El Nino conditions.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 21, 2016, 04:29:22 PM
The three attached images are nullschool forecasts for March 25 2015 for: the 250-hPa Wind & MSLP, the 850-hPa Wind & TPW, and the Surface Wind & TCW, cases respectively.  Collectively, these images indicate that by March 25 we may see the beginning of weak SPCZ activity, and the leading edge of the active phase of the MJO entering the Western Pacific.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 22, 2016, 02:27:00 AM
Per the following data and the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -13.7:

20160220,20160320,-13.7
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 22, 2016, 04:22:24 PM
The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for March 22 2016, showing that the weak downwelling pulse continues to move eastward; which allows cooler water to follow behind the downwelling pulse.  This is resulting in the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom to continue decreasing as indicated by the second image from NOAA issued today.

The third image shows the ECMM (corrected) MJO forecast from March 22 to April 5 2016, showing that the eastward movement of the active phase of the MJO has slowed but has not stopped.  This is supported by the fourth image of the Earth 250-hPa Wind & TPW forecast for March 26 2016, which shows the leading edge of the active phase of the MJO appearing on the western edge of the Western Eq Pac (but which shows much less SPCZ activity than yesterday's nullschool forecast).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 23, 2016, 02:25:32 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -12.1:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 23, 2016, 04:25:42 PM
I believe that all of the following plots strengthen the case for ENSO neutral conditions for the boreal Fall of 2016; which if so would strengthen the case for 2016 having the highest GMST on record.

The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for March 23 2016, showing that while the warm surface layer continues to thin, there is no indication of the upwelling of cool deep water in the near future.

The second image shows the NOAA Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued March 23 2016, showing that this value is becoming increasingly negative as the deeper cool water layer becomes larger and the warm surface layer thins.

The third image shows the ECMM (corrected) MJO forecast from March 23 to April 6 2016, which indicates a forecast that is less bullish for future El Nino conditions than yesterday's forecast.

The fourth image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from March 23 to 30-2016, showing consistent weak westerly wind activity in the Western Eq Pac during the forecast period.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 23, 2016, 10:12:58 PM
In one of Mike Ventrices tweets at https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/712290782938533888 (https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/712290782938533888), Eric Webb is responding by posting following link where he has put together an ENS-ONI index spanning from 1865 to present day. Of course,the uncertainities are bigger for early data.

See the full data at: http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Ensemble-Oceanic-NINO-Index-ENS-ONI-Raw-Data-1865-Present-4.txt (http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Ensemble-Oceanic-NINO-Index-ENS-ONI-Raw-Data-1865-Present-4.txt)

Unofficially, it seems clear that El Niño 2015/2016 is the strongest on record beating out 1877/1878. The strong El Niño 1997/1998 is ranked at third place.

Unofficially, so far there have only been one La Niña which maybe could have been classified as a "Super La Niña" and that was 1988/1989. The ENS-ONI for NDJ reached -2,00 which is exactly what he is considering as a "Super La Niña".

//LMV
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 23, 2016, 10:38:57 PM
In addition to my earlier post, I forgot to mention this very interesting article "The Global Climate Anomaly 1940-1942" by Brönnimann (2015). The winters of 1940-1942 were very or extremely cold in Europe. By the same time, El Niño was in charge during 1940-1942...

See and read more at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/230104157_The_global_climate_anomaly_1940-1942 (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/230104157_The_global_climate_anomaly_1940-1942)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 23, 2016, 10:52:04 PM
Unofficially, it seems clear that El Niño 2015/2016 is the strongest on record beating out 1877/1878. The strong El Niño 1997/1998 is ranked at third place.

Unofficially, it seems like 2015-16 was the King of the Super El Ninos (aka: Godzilla).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 24, 2016, 02:39:51 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -10.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 24, 2016, 06:17:55 PM
The following images indicate that the current El Nino is at a point where it might (or might not) permit some (more) upwelling of cooler deep water to the surface in the far Eastern Eq Pac, as indicated in the first image of the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for March 24 2016.  It is possible that the eastward traveling downwelling pulse might be strong enough to reach this possible upwelling point in a few weeks time, as the second attached image of the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from March 24 to 31 2016 indicates that there is still some weak westerly winds that continue to feed a little bit of warm water in to the Nino 4 region thus providing a little bit of support to the weak downwelling pulse.

That said, the third image of the NOAA Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued March 24 2016, indicates that this value continues to become more negative, and the fourth image of the ECMM MJO forecast from March 24 to April 7 2016 is less bullish for possible future conditions supporting El Nino conditions than yesterday's forecast.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 25, 2016, 02:35:59 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved rapidly up to -9.4:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 25, 2016, 04:46:53 PM
The first plot shows the NOAA Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued March 25 2016, showing that this value is becoming increasingly negative; and the second image of the TAO Subsurface Temp Anom for March 25 2016, indicates that this is because the deep cool water layer is becoming thicker, while the warm top layer is becoming thinner; but there is still no upwelling of the deeper cool water.

The third image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from March 25 to April 1 2016; showing stronger westerly wind activity west of the International Dateline.

The fourth image shows the ECMM MJO forecast from March 25 to April 8 2016; which indicates that the active phase of the MJO has now entered the Western Pacific and thus is probably weakly supportive of reinforcing El Nino conditions (which may be contributing the increased westerly wind forecast; which will help reinforce the current weak downwelling pulse of the EKW).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 25, 2016, 04:54:37 PM
All of the attached images are nullschool forecasts issued on March 25 2016.  The first two images are for March 26, with the first image showing 850-hPa Wind & TPW, and the second showing the 250-hPa Wind & MSLP.  The last two images are for March 29 and show the 850-hPa Wind & TPW and the 250-hPa Wind & MSLP, respectively.

These images indicate that on March 26th their will be a combination of weak MJO and weak SPCZ activity driving westerly wind in the Western Eq Pac; while March 29 the MJO & SPCZ contributions have largely dissipated, while the weak westerly wind activity is sustained by a weak monsoon trough that creates some weak cyclonic disturbance activity both north & south of the equator in the western end of the Western Eq Pac.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on March 25, 2016, 07:10:55 PM
Blog post by Bob Henson today:

Here Comes La Niña--Or Does It? What History, Models, and Experts Tell Us. 

Quote
Several models have a moderately strong La Niña in place as soon as late summer, while a couple of other models bring back El Niño for a return visit by late 2016. It turns out that at least two of the models favoring El Niño (the CCSM4 and CFSv2 models, seen in Figure 4 (http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2016/iri-plume-3.17.16.jpg)) were being swayed by an implausibly cold Atlantic--the type of initialization problem where unrealistic starting-point data can lead to unorthodox model behavior down the line.

...

Update: NOAA is announcing on Friday that an adjustment to the initialization system used for CCSM4 and CFSv2 is being implemented on Monday, addressing the cold bias in the Atlantic Ocean. Importantly, when it tested this adjustment, NOAA found a major shift: "the long-lead forecasts evolved from the current El Niño event into neutral or La Niña conditions during the next 9 months in the Nino3.4 SST plumes." Here's a NOAA technical briefing (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/downloads/CFSv2_Atlantic_cold_bias_problem.pptx) on the results. The NOAA/CPC outlook issued last week called for a roughly 50% chance of La Niña conditions by fall. However, given the latest initialization news, it wouldn't be a surprise to see those odds going up in April.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/here-comes-la-niaor-does-it-what-history-models-and-experts-tel (https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/here-comes-la-niaor-does-it-what-history-models-and-experts-tel)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Tor Bejnar on March 25, 2016, 08:29:47 PM
That would put NOAA more in line with other forecasters, at least at this time.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 26, 2016, 02:24:08 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued to move rapidly up to -8.3:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on March 26, 2016, 07:36:13 AM
That would put NOAA more in line with other forecasters, at least at this time.
A short awakening from my hibernation.

Yes, but.
Consider the present record braking negative OLR anomalies and persistent negative SOI anomalies, both will need to turn persistently positive by late summer, at least.
Adding a comparison between March 2010 and now to display the differences in SSTs at this time of year.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ospo.noaa.gov%2Fdata%2Fsst%2Fanomaly%2F2010%2Fanomp.3.25.2010.gif&hash=22c0db91ec840e32e51bd7cf60ecf846)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ospo.noaa.gov%2Fdata%2Fsst%2Fanomaly%2F2016%2Fanomp.3.24.2016.gif&hash=46e7d46e0e926f688cfbc292c55931a9)

And if we look at that experimental output (attached) it's showing a weak La Nina in August/September, which will be too late to form a La Nina of any magnitude in 2016.

This freight train seems to show very little interest to be in line with anything.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 26, 2016, 12:15:39 PM
A short awakening from my hibernation.

Sleepy,

It is great to have you back (no matter how short) from your hibernation.  As NOAA is currently indicating a 50%-50% chance of a La Nina before the end of this year, we will just have to watch and see where this freight train ends-up in 2016 (or as the title says: "2015/16 El Nino, the aftermath").

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: A-Team on March 26, 2016, 01:29:31 PM
Quote
a weak La Nina in August/September too late to form a La Nina of any magnitude in 2016. This freight train seems to show very little interest.
I'm of the opinion we don't need 9 months of daily updates under these circumstances.

It seems to me that the top priority here should be a post-mortem analysis of the overall scientific fiasco  and how to rein in grotesque public miscommunications of climate science that occurred throughout the year. I discovered that quite a bit of the latter is single-source, a colorful 74-year old oceanographer at JPL who loves to be on tv.

Instead of the same old textbook tripe about tele-effects on Pacific Ocean storm tracks, it would be better to face our new reality, deprecate El NoNo, discard historic weather statistics as a predictive tool, and start digging into what the real driving factors are today.

The fact is, the drought has continued unabated. CAP is talking again about water rationing again for the Colorado River basin. If this continues -- given record evaporation for 2016 and ever more groundwater depletion -- we may have to actually address where the water is actually going: to desert alfalfa and forage crops for S Ca dairy feedlots. Meatless Monday is not going to be enough.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 26, 2016, 07:19:27 PM
Quote
a weak La Nina in August/September too late to form a La Nina of any magnitude in 2016. This freight train seems to show very little interest.
I'm of the opinion we don't need 9 months of daily updates under these circumstances.

A-Team,

Up until today I would have said that there was a small chance that a strong MJO near the Eq Pac Dateline had a chance of generating another downwelling pulse towards the middle of April, which might have slowed the rate of decline of our current strong El Nino conditions.  However, the following four (daily) images make it relatively clear that by Fall 2016 we will most likely have either negative neutral conditions, or weak La Nina conditions.  Furthermore, the main point of my daily updates* has been that increases in El Nino with global warming is a major contributor to climate sensitivity, so getting a better handle on both the intensity and frequency of El Nino events could improve future forecasts (see the following link to NOAA's daily USA regional forecasts).

https://www.climate.gov/maps-data (https://www.climate.gov/maps-data)

With that said, the first image shows the TAO Subsurface Temp Anom for March 26 2016; which indicates to me that the weak downwelling pulse will not be sufficient to prevent some upwelling of relatively cool deep water in the Nino 3 region in the near future.  The second image of NOAA's Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued March 26 2016, shows that the heat anom continues to become negative, indicating to me that we many not just be in a simple trough, but rather the Eq Pac is likely shifting into a non-El Nino state.  The third image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa forecast from March 26 to April 2 2016; indicates that once the current weak MJO-driven WWB ends in a few days, there will be a lull in WWB activity.  The fourth image show the ECMM MJO forecast from March 26 to April 9 2016; indicating, that while today and tomorrow the MJO weakly supports El Nino conditions, after that the MJO will move rapidly into a neutral state (for the duration of the forecast).

Best,
ASLR

* The secondary reason for my daily updates has been my concern that if weak El Nino conditions survive until early Summer of 2016, there could have been a major drought in the summer monsoon season for South Asia; which could have put major pressure on humanitarian relief resources condition the demand that is certain to grow in Africa due to the current El Nino-driven drought in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on March 26, 2016, 08:23:06 PM
The El Niño Rapid Response Campaign: Monitoring the 2015-2016 El Niño from the land, sea, and air (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/el-ni%C3%B1o-rapid-response-campaign-monitoring-2015-2016-el-ni%C3%B1o-land-sea-and)

Quote
From January to March 2016, scientists have been collecting data in a notoriously data-sparse region of the Pacific via Gulfstream jets, high-tech unmanned aircraft, ship cruises, weather balloon launches, and instruments dropped right out of aircraft. This effort is known as the El Niño Rapid Response campaign.

...

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F2EnwEGw.png&hash=4e26d7de988c822ba86a0e60c9964f9e)

...

Now that the campaign is over, the observations that were taken will be used to identify model biases that limit the skill of forecasting West Coast precipitation events over the Jan-March period. Also, we'll study how improving the initial state of the atmosphere in the models during El Niño can impact forecast skill.
...
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: gregb on March 26, 2016, 09:09:59 PM
Before someone goes off and creates a 2016 La Nina thread (should that come to pass), I would like to suggest that Neven (or whoever) simply start a new "ENSO" sticky thread each year. I also believe that we can drop some of the the daily observations as they are of little use or interest as we slip back into neutral territory.

-g.b.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 27, 2016, 04:50:47 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -8.3:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 28, 2016, 03:20:05 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -8.2:

20160226,20160326,-8.2

Edit: Here is the plot
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 28, 2016, 05:03:40 PM
Per the following data issued today by NOAA for the week centered on March 23 2016, all of the Nino indices are down, with the Nino 3.4 down to +1.5 (which is still considered strong El Nino conditions)

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 24FEB2016     27.1 0.9     28.4 1.8     29.0 2.1     29.5 1.4
 02MAR2016     27.3 1.0     28.6 1.8     28.9 1.9     29.5 1.4
 09MAR2016     27.7 1.2     28.6 1.6     28.9 1.8     29.6 1.5
 16MAR2016     27.5 1.0     28.8 1.7     28.9 1.7     29.6 1.4
 23MAR2016     27.2 0.9     28.6 1.4     28.8 1.5     29.5 1.2

The first two images were issued today by NOAA showing the Evolution in the Eq Pac for the SSTA, and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively.  They confirm that the current strong El Nino continues to degrade and will soon be a moderate El Nino.

The last two images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending March 27 2016, respectively showing that the Nino 3.4 is now +1.35, and that the IOD is now positive (but neutral).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 28, 2016, 05:06:06 PM
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM, showing that the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, are all slightly down; indicating that the El Nino continues to slowly degrade.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 28, 2016, 05:19:34 PM
The first image show the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from March 28 to April 4 2016, indicating moderate WWB activity adequate to support the current weak downwelling phase of the EKW.

The second image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for March 28 2016, showing that there may not be any upwelling in the Nino 3 region anytime in the near future.

The third image shows the BoM's Eq Dateline Cloud Cover, showing that there has been more cloud cover recently than in a typical year.

The fourth image shows NOAA Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued March 28 2016.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 28, 2016, 06:58:55 PM
Good to see that the area with -3oC and colder is shrinking  8)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 29, 2016, 03:19:12 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -7.6 (and if sustained is now in the neutral range):

20160227,20160327,-7.6

Edit: Here is the plot
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on March 29, 2016, 05:16:46 AM
A short awakening from my hibernation.

Sleepy,

It is great to have you back (no matter how short) from your hibernation.  As NOAA is currently indicating a 50%-50% chance of a La Nina before the end of this year, we will just have to watch and see where this freight train ends-up in 2016 (or as the title says: "2015/16 El Nino, the aftermath").

Best,
ASLR
Thanks ASLR, you might remember that I started following ENSO in late 2013 and I'm certainly not stopping now when we are on the doorstep of finding out how much AGW is changing the third largest climate variation on this planet. Late 2013 and early 2014 the models were off and most of the "experts" as well, thanks to AGW as I see it.

I know it's considered a 50/50 chance fo a La Nina, or with climatological probabilities roughly 33/33/33 for the end of this year (OND). In two or three months we will probably know how this develops. Unless it becomes a roller coaster like in 2014 and ends up fooling most of us. I will still gamble on that, dispite what the subsurface temperatures shows right now (models using that shows a bit higher percentage for a La Nina developing towards July/August).

Thank you for your relentless daily updates.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Stephen on March 29, 2016, 12:45:40 PM
This El Nino has contributed to massive, widespread bleaching of the far northern Great Barrier reef.

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2015/s4432792.htm (http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2015/s4432792.htm)

Quote
EIGH SALES, PRESENTER: Exclusive footage of the Great Barrier Reef shows what could be the most severe and extensive coral bleaching on record.

A leading coral researcher has just returned from a four-day aerial survey of reefs off Australia's far north coast, and of the 520 reefs his team flew over, all but four were damaged.

The extreme bleaching event is likely to kill some of the world's most pristine coral, as Peter McCutcheon reports.

TERRY HUGHES, JAMES COOK UNIVERSITY: This will change the Great Barrier Reef forever. We're seeing huge levels of bleaching in the northern 1,000-kilometre stretch of the Great Barrier Reef.

PETER MCCUTCHEON, REPORTER: The sheer scale of coral bleaching is revealed in footage shot for a scientific survey last week. For over 1,000 kilometres from Cairns to the Torres Strait, the once-colourful ribbons of reef are a ghostly white. Leading this expedition is one of Australia's most eminent coral scientists, Professor Terry Hughes.

TERRY HUGHES: For me personally, it was devastating to look at out of the chopper window and see reef after reef destroyed by bleaching. But really my emotion is not so much sadness as anger. I'm really angry that the Government isn't listening to the evidence that we're providing them since 1998.

PETER MCCUTCHEON: Terry Hughes and his team rated a staggering 95 per cent of the reefs they flew over in the most severely bleached categories. That's considerably more severe than past bleaching events, where the figure was under 20 per cent.

TERRY HUGHES: It's too early yet to tell precisely how many of the bleached corals will die, but judging from the extreme level of bleaching, even the most robust corals are snow white. I'd expect to see about half of those corals die in the coming month or so. We're already seeing mortality beginning in our underwater surveys near Cairns and Port Douglas.

PETER MCCUTCHEON: Coral bleaching is caused by abnormally high sea temperatures that kill the tiny marine algae essential to coral health.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 29, 2016, 05:23:03 PM
Sleepy,

In their ENSO overview issued by the BoM today, they agree with you that caution should be exercised about NOAA's 50%-50% probability forecast of a weak La Nina in the boreal Fall (austral Spring) of 2016, as we are currently in a low-skill period for ENSO forecasts.  Furthermore, per the attached POAMA Nino 3.4 forecast started March 27 2016, there is nearly a 100% probability of being ENSO neutral by the boreal Fall (austral Spring) of 2016::

"Tropical Pacific Ocean continues towards ENSO-neutral
Issued on 29 March 2016 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
The decline of the 2015-16 El Niño continues in the tropical Pacific. Temperatures below the ocean surface have cooled steadily, with only the top 50 metres more than +1 °C warmer than normal. It is likely this is the coolest this top layer of ocean has been since January 2015. Atmospheric indicators reflect such changes in the ocean. For instance, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has returned to weak El Niño levels. However, some indicators, such as cloudiness near the Date Line, have been slower to respond and still show a clear El Niño signal.
International climate models suggest El Niño will continue to weaken during the southern autumn, returning to neutral levels by mid-2016. For winter and spring, climate models suggest neutral and La Niña are equally likely. However, the accuracy of forecasts made at this time of year is lower than those at other times, and therefore some caution should be exercised."

Very Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 29, 2016, 08:26:43 PM
It seems to me that the top priority here should be a post-mortem analysis of the overall scientific fiasco  and how to rein in grotesque public miscommunications of climate science that occurred throughout the year. I discovered that quite a bit of the latter is single-source, a colorful 74-year old oceanographer at JPL who loves to be on tv.

The linked reference correlates skill in predicting East Coast heat with Pacific sea surface temps:


K. A. McKinnon, A. Rhines, M. P. Tingley & P. Huybers (2016), "Long-lead predictions of eastern United States hot days from Pacific sea surface temperatures", Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo2687


http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2687.html (http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2687.html)


Abstract: "Seasonal forecast models exhibit only modest skill in predicting extreme summer temperatures across the eastern US. Anomalies in sea surface temperature and monthly-resolution rainfall have, however, been correlated with hot days in the US, and seasonal persistence of these anomalies suggests potential for long-lead predictability. Here we present a clustering analysis of daily maximum summer temperatures from US weather stations between 1982–2015 and identify a region spanning most of the eastern US where hot weather events tend to occur synchronously. We then show that an evolving pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies, termed the Pacific Extreme Pattern, provides for skillful prediction of hot weather within this region as much as 50 days in advance. Skill is demonstrated using out-of-sample predictions between 1950 and 2015. Rainfall deficits over the eastern US are also associated with the occurrence of the Pacific Extreme Pattern and are demonstrated to offer complementary skill in predicting high temperatures. The Pacific Extreme Pattern appears to provide a cohesive framework for improving seasonal prediction of summer precipitation deficits and high temperature anomalies in the eastern US."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: islandraider on March 30, 2016, 12:56:10 AM
Thank you to all the contributors to this forum!  I visit daily & greatly appreciate the data presented, the explanations of the data, and the discussions.  Thanks you guys!
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 30, 2016, 03:27:47 AM
Per the attached plot issued by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to -6.4:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 30, 2016, 03:53:41 AM
Mashable's Andrew Freedman discusses the study ASLR references in comment #483 above.

We may soon be able to predict heat waves 7 weeks before they happen
Quote
The pattern is best described as an area of the ocean where there is a sharp contrast between milder-than-average and cooler-than-average waters.

When the pattern appears, the odds of an extreme heat event in a particular week, or even on a particular day, "can more than triple," according to a press release.

The potential payoff of accurate heat wave warnings far in advance could be huge, considering the major consequences such events have on society, from heat-related illnesses to strains on power grids and crop losses.
...
"Since our analysis is based upon observations rather than modeling, it is difficult to definitely determine cause and effect," McKinnon said. "We have two primary hypotheses about the role of the ocean. The first is that the ocean interacts with the atmosphere to preferentially produce and enhance an atmospheric circulation that leads to both low precipitation over the Eastern U.S. and, later, the hot weather that we predict," she said.

It's also possible, she said, that both the sea surface temperature pattern and the heat waves are both parts of a larger, as-yet unidentified cycle, which might mean one doesn't necessarily cause the other.
http://mashable.com/2016/03/28/heat-wave-predictions-50-days/ (http://mashable.com/2016/03/28/heat-wave-predictions-50-days/)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 31, 2016, 03:22:46 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -4.7:

20160229,20160329,-4.7

Edit: Here is the plot
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 31, 2016, 01:33:00 PM
More on the coral bleaching event:
"At some reefs off far northeast Australia near the tip of Cape York, up to 50 percent of coral have already died."

Longest Coral Bleaching Event on Record Continues to Hammer Reefs
Quote
Even as the El Niño of 2015-16 winds down, coral reefs remain threatened by the longest episode of global-scale bleaching on record. NOAA announced in October 2015 that the third global bleaching event had begun, with reefs from the Florida Keys to Fiji suffering widespread damage over the past year.  In February, NOAA scientists announced that the bleaching event was the longest on record. The event is a result of widespread ocean warming related to long-term climate change as well as regional warmings triggered by El Niño, which began in early 2015. The prolonged nature of the bleaching event is especially worrisome because it allows for multiple years of damage during seasonal peaks in upper-ocean temperature, giving the reefs less time to recover. “We may be looking at a 2- to 2½-year-long event,” said Mark Eakin, coordinator of NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch program. “Some areas have already seen bleaching two years in a row.”

In its 2015 annual summary of conditions across U.S. coral reefs, issued on March 7, 2016, NOAA projected that the global bleaching event will likely extend into 2017. Since 2014, the report noted, 100% of all U.S. coral reef areas have experienced at least some level of thermal stress associated with unusually warm waters, with 41% experiencing Alert Level 2 thermal stress (typically associated with widespread bleaching and mortality). Record-breaking events occurred in 2015 near Hawaii, American Samoa, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Florida. Reefs near Hawaii were hard hit by bleaching in both 2014 and 2015.

Major damage at Great Barrier Reef
Severe bleaching is now under way across the northern reaches of the Great Barrier Reef, which is a UNESCO World Heritage Site and one of the world’s great treasuries of marine diversity. At some reefs off far northeast Australia near the tip of Cape York, up to 50 percent of coral have already died. The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority classified the unfolding event as Level R3, the most dire, because of severe regional bleaching over the last few days. (R3 can also be triggered if less-severe bleaching is particularly widespread.) “To put it in simple, stark terms, multiple areas of the reef are now dead and dying,” said David Suggett (University of Technology Sydney) in a Conversation essay published last week. South of the hardest-hit area, clouds and heavy rain had tamped down ocean temperatures and reduced the extent of bleaching, according to a March 21 update from the park authority.
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/longest-coral-bleaching-event-on-record-continues-to-hammer-reefs (https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/longest-coral-bleaching-event-on-record-continues-to-hammer-reefs)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: wehappyfew on March 31, 2016, 04:53:16 PM
CFSv2 has a new chart... "Atl Nino3"

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fpeople%2Fwwang%2Fcfsv2fcst%2FimagesInd3%2Fatl3Mon.gif&hash=9d6b9e17a1f3efa873960242da2a8ce2)

This has something to do with the Atlantic initialization problem some people have mentioned?

It will be interesting to see how the subsequent model runs adjust and propagate to the rest of the world as the influence of those non-physical temps are removed.

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 31, 2016, 05:59:55 PM
The first image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-Wind Anom forecast from March 31 to April 7 2016, showing a current strong WWB that will help to sustain our current weak downwelling pulse.

The second Earth 850-hPa Wind & MSLP Map for March 31 2016, shows that the WWB looks like.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 01, 2016, 03:38:59 AM
Per the following data and attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -4.7:

20160229,20160329,-4.7
20160301,20160330,-4.7
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 02, 2016, 03:35:57 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI moved up to -3.6:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 02, 2016, 04:24:48 PM
The first image shows NOAA's modeled Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for March 29 2016, that shows the prospect of the upwelling of deep cool water near the Nino 3.4 region.

However, the TAO measured Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for April 2 2016, shows that the recent strong WWB adequately strengthened the weak downwelling pulse to avoid any such upwelling, indicating that the NOAA Nino 3.4 forecasts will likely err on the side of least drama for the time being.

The third image shows NOAA Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued April 2 2016, showing that the rate of cooling of this value is slowing down.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 02, 2016, 05:58:39 PM
Not much use for the green and blue colors on temperature anomaly maps these days.  :o

Quote
Ok #climate is more than a month's data but two images: For Aust hottest March ever & for Oz summer waters
https://twitter.com/jconnoroz/status/715788013758988288

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 03, 2016, 03:27:55 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -3.3:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 04, 2016, 03:29:35 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued drifting up to -3.1:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 04, 2016, 09:46:43 AM
The first three images we issued today by the BoM thru April 3 2016 for the : (a) Nino 3.4 index; (b) the IOD index; and (c) the cloud cover near the Equatorial Dateline, respectively.  They indicate a moderate but declining El Nino conditions.

The fourth image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for April 3 2016, indicating moderate but declining El Nino conditions

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 04, 2016, 09:49:24 AM
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending April 3 2016, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively; indicating that the Nino 1, 2 & 3 indices are up, while the Nino 4 index is down.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 04, 2016, 04:50:43 PM
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data for the week centered on March 30 2016, the Nino 1 and 2 indices both increased, the Nino 3.4 remained constant at 1.5C and the Nino 4 index decreased

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 24FEB2016     27.1 0.9     28.4 1.8     29.0 2.1     29.5 1.4
 02MAR2016     27.3 1.0     28.6 1.8     28.9 1.9     29.5 1.4
 09MAR2016     27.7 1.2     28.6 1.6     28.9 1.8     29.6 1.5
 16MAR2016     27.5 1.0     28.8 1.7     28.9 1.7     29.6 1.4
 23MAR2016     27.2 0.9     28.6 1.4     28.8 1.5     29.5 1.2
 30MAR2016     27.5 1.5     28.9 1.6     29.0 1.5     29.5 1.1

The first three images were issued today for the Eq Pac, respectively showing the: (a) SSTA Evolution, (b) Upper Ocean Heat Anom Evolution and (c) Upper Ocean Heat Anom.  They all indicate a moderate El Nino that is slowly degrading.

The fourth image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for April 4 2016, showing little change from the day before.

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 04, 2016, 05:34:11 PM
ASLR, your last picture showing the subsurface temperatures indeed shows that the minimal area of -3oC at about 75 m depth have grown since yesterday.

Latest forecast for the wind anomalies indicates that weak westerlies will encompass most of the equatorial Pacific from about April 8. ECMWFs forecast is that the MJO will be more or less stucked in the Indian Ocean for the next two weeks or so.

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html (http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 04, 2016, 05:56:00 PM
ASLR, your last picture showing the subsurface temperatures indeed shows that the minimal area of -3oC at about 75 m depth have grown since yesterday.

Latest forecast for the wind anomalies indicates that weak westerlies will encompass most of the equatorial Pacific from about April 8. ECMWFs forecast is that the MJO will be more or less stucked in the Indian Ocean for the next two weeks or so.

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html (http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html)

I called the increase in -3C at about 75m a "little change"; however, maybe the term "little" is relative.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 04, 2016, 08:54:18 PM
Well, all the other differences were more or less the same but that minor area was so obvious for ones eyes :)

ASLR, thank you for everything you are doing at this forum! :) I think we can put the title "Mr. El Niño" on you! :)

Best, LMV
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 05, 2016, 03:22:56 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -3.4:

20160305,20160403,-3.4

Edit: Here is the plot
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 06, 2016, 06:09:21 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.2:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 07, 2016, 06:38:53 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -4.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: James Lovejoy on April 07, 2016, 07:02:59 AM
Earth System Research Laboratory's MEI is agreeing with just about every measure that the el Nino is fading.  http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/)

The writer of the page says "Meanwhile, I believe that general El Niño conditions (rankings iin top 30%) are still more likely than not through May-June, in the MEI sense."


 
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 07, 2016, 11:49:15 AM
Earth System Research Laboratory's MEI is agreeing with just about every measure that the el Nino is fading.  http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/)

The writer of the page says "Meanwhile, I believe that general El Niño conditions (rankings iin top 30%) are still more likely than not through May-June, in the MEI sense."

The attached plot is from the link that you provided, and while the author's statement could be taken to mean that he thinks the current El Nino will end in the May-June time frame, it can just as early be taken to mean that a weak El Nino could continue past June 2016, where it might disrupt India's summer monsoon season.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: charles_oil on April 07, 2016, 11:54:50 AM
El-Nino is causing drought in Panama - so restrictions on the vessel drafts that can use it.  Still - should be able to go round the North soon !

https://gcaptain.com/drought-brings-second-round-of-panama-canal-draft-restrictions/#.VwYr-um77aE.email
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on April 07, 2016, 08:24:19 PM
Latest NMME multi-model ensemble forecast for Niño 3.4:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FBEAccX9.png&hash=ec1c8fe6e368a65249c381681aace8be)

suggests a transition to weak La Niña by July/August 2016.

Forecast for August 2016:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fspss3ad.png&hash=4cee43b7293c32dbdc2910594476b39e)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/ (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 08, 2016, 03:32:27 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -4.9:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 08, 2016, 05:21:12 PM
The first image show the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for April 8 2016, showing that the thin layer of relatively warm surface water is persisting and does not show any signs of upwelling of cool deeper water.

The second image shows the Eq Pac Dateline cloud cover through about April 8 2016, indicating relatively persistent cloud cover (which is an indication of continuing El Nino conditions).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 09, 2016, 04:01:52 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -5.8:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on April 09, 2016, 08:26:01 AM
Still no signs of atmospheric coupling and a transition towards a La Nina. Feels like that slow and sluggish response by the atmosphere in 2014. There's too much heat and time is slowly running out.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 09, 2016, 04:59:19 PM
Maybe when we get past the Spring Barrier for forecasting we will have a better idea of what the future will bring:

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/will-la-nina-follow-one-of-strongest-el-ninos-20223 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/will-la-nina-follow-one-of-strongest-el-ninos-20223)

Extract: "Right now Barnston puts the odds at slightly better than 50 percent that a La Niña does develop.
...
It’s far too early to tell how strong any La Niña that does develop might be, forecasters say.

“It's difficult to forecast strength of events. An added difficulty is that things change pretty quickly when an event is decaying — this is the time of year when the accuracy of forecasts is lower,” Catherine Ganter, a senior climatologist with Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, said in an email.

Barnston said they should have a better idea of the potential strength by August, possibly a bit sooner if there is a very sharp cool down in Pacific Ocean temperatures."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 09, 2016, 10:07:47 PM
La Niña is Coming. Here’s What That Means for You.
By Eric Holthaus
Quote
On Thursday, the National Multi-Model Ensemble, a blend of the most reliable seasonal forecasts available, showed the clearest signal yet that tropical Pacific waters will cool rapidly over the next six months, likely ushering in La Niña conditions.

Here’s exactly what’s about to happen, as explained by the fine folks at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:

In a nutshell, El Niño’s burst of warm water has slackened the trade winds across the tropical Pacific Ocean, and pushed the atmosphere there into an unsustainable setup. El Niño is now in the process of eating itself, as Anthony Barnston, one of the world’s foremost experts on El Niño and La Niña told Climate Central’s Andrea Thompson. As this happens, the trade winds will return with a vengeance, and will promote cooler, upwelling ocean water (which we call La Niña) that will shift weather patterns worldwide.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/04/08/la_nina_2016_2017_what_it_means_for_you.html (http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/04/08/la_nina_2016_2017_what_it_means_for_you.html)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 10, 2016, 03:51:45 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -6.7:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on April 10, 2016, 06:33:07 AM
Maybe when we get past the Spring Barrier for forecasting we will have a better idea of what the future will bring:

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/will-la-nina-follow-one-of-strongest-el-ninos-20223 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/will-la-nina-follow-one-of-strongest-el-ninos-20223)

Extract: "Right now Barnston puts the odds at slightly better than 50 percent that a La Niña does develop.
...
It’s far too early to tell how strong any La Niña that does develop might be, forecasters say.

“It's difficult to forecast strength of events. An added difficulty is that things change pretty quickly when an event is decaying — this is the time of year when the accuracy of forecasts is lower,” Catherine Ganter, a senior climatologist with Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, said in an email.

Barnston said they should have a better idea of the potential strength by August, possibly a bit sooner if there is a very sharp cool down in Pacific Ocean temperatures."
Yes, maybe. Model outputs should be taken with caution right now. They also failed in early 2014.

The time frame is important, as later transitions into a La Nina has (historically) produced weaker and/or delayed events. We would like to see negative SSTs in June and by late July we would like to see OLR and SOI persistently positive if we whish to see a stronger La Nina.

And the decline of this El Nino has been slow so far.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on April 10, 2016, 08:36:18 AM
A comparison of SSTs between -98/-10/-16. NOAA.

                       Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
01APR1998      29.1 3.1     29.3 1.9     28.7 1.2     28.6 0.2
31MAR2010     25.9-0.1     28.1 0.8     28.4 0.9     29.2 0.8
30MAR2016     27.5 1.5     28.9 1.6     29.0 1.5     29.5 1.1

2010 had an earlier start and/but lower temperatures.
1998 was earlier but the Nino4 region was 0.9° colder and Nino1+2 1.6° warmer.

1983 was similar to 1998 at this point in time for the Nino3.4 region but plateued between April and May.
Our present event is in a hurry to catch up but maybe those colder subsurface anomalies will provide those colder anomalies needed. Or not.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 10, 2016, 04:05:50 PM
And the decline of this El Nino has been slow so far.

To support Sleepy's observations, the attached images show that our current El Nino is declining slower than most forecasts.

The first image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued April 10 2016, showing that the EKW has either reached a trough or at least a plateau.

The second image shows the Tropical Tidbits SSTA for April 10 2016, showing clear El Nino conditions.

The third image shows the TAO Subsurface Temp Anom profile for April 10 2016, showing that the warm surface layer remains stable (will no sign of the upwelling of cooler deeper water).

The fourth image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from April 10 to 17 2016, showing more WWB activity than what was forecast a few days ago.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 11, 2016, 03:35:01 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -6.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 11, 2016, 03:06:34 PM
Per the following data issued by NOAA today the Nino 3.4 for the week centered on April 6 2016 has dropped down to +1.3:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 09MAR2016     27.7 1.2     28.6 1.6     28.9 1.8     29.6 1.5
 16MAR2016     27.5 1.0     28.8 1.7     28.9 1.7     29.6 1.4
 23MAR2016     27.2 0.9     28.6 1.4     28.8 1.5     29.5 1.2
 30MAR2016     27.5 1.5     28.9 1.6     29.0 1.5     29.5 1.1
 06APR2016     27.1 1.3     28.8 1.4     28.9 1.3     29.3 0.9

The two attached images were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending April 10 2016.  The first image shows that the Nino 3.4 has dropped down to +1.15, and the second shows that the IOD remains neutral:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 11, 2016, 03:10:42 PM
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM thru the week ending April 10 2016, for the Nino 1, 2, 3 and 4 indices, respectively.  They all indicate that the current El Nino has dropped down in to the moderate strength range.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 11, 2016, 05:30:06 PM
The first three images were issued today by NOAA respectively showing the: (1) Eq Pac SSTA Evolution; (2) Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom Evolution and (3) Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom profile for April 3 2016.

The fourth image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for April 11 2016; which shows the warm surface layer of water intact (unlike what is shown in NOAA's model for April 3rd shown in the third image), and the deeper cooler waters are dissipating as compared to the past several days.  This raises the prospect that no upwelling phase of the EKW will bring cooler deep water to the surface from some time to come.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 12, 2016, 05:16:56 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has jumped down to -7.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 12, 2016, 09:12:30 PM
Latest PDO-value for March from JISAO just arrived. A huge value of +2,40 is the second highest trailing behind 1941 which had a value of +2,41.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 13, 2016, 02:57:35 AM
Kiritimati Atoll:  The Largest Coral Atoll In The World Lost 80 Percent Of Its Coral To Bleaching in the Last Ten Months
Quote
Their estimate is, as of early April, about 80 percent of the coral colonies at Kiritimati are now dead, and another 15 percent are severely bleached and likely to die. It’s as if someone decided to cut down 90 percent of the Redwood Forest. Overnight, an entire ecosystem has essentially blinked out of existence.

I spoke with the team by satellite phone on one of their last days of dives, and the shock in their voices was palpable.

“There’s a good chance that this reef will never be the same,” said Cobb. “It’s a wake-up call.”

From cores that Cobb’s team has analyzed, she estimated there’s been nothing like the current die-off in Kiritimati in the 7,000 years of ancient coral history there. About 10 months ago, this reef was still mostly healthy, as it has been for thousands of years. Global warming will make the pressure on global corals even worse in the coming decades, and many of the world’s reefs can expect future bleaching events to occur more frequently. For some, like those in Kiritimati, the last few months — the worst global coral bleaching episode in history — may be a point of no return.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/04/12/3768723/coral-bleaching-christmas-atoll/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/04/12/3768723/coral-bleaching-christmas-atoll/)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Bruce Steele on April 13, 2016, 05:27:46 AM
I wonder if people can. Get their mind around the whole cascade of emptiness, barren skeletal reef a 80% severely bleached atoll leaves behind?
 There are pictures of bleached bison bones collected for their contained fertilizer , phosphorus
 Collected years after they were gunned down
And you can look at one of those pictures and envision the enormous herds gone
You can get your mind around it a little but and atoll 80% dead
A hundred atolls dead
The enormity of it and I don't think we feel the pain properly
Not like the bison herds gone, we just don't feel it somehow
So if you envision just a a few inches, a few meters and stare at it, even the aquarium
And that's a faint faint reflection of a reef but still stare at the coral moving the fish and their forts
On the scale of an inch, an atoll, a hundred , hundreds and our minds eye fails
Last line
A point of no return


   
   
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 13, 2016, 09:18:50 AM
EXTREMLY HUGE cooling of SSTs in the far Eastern Pacific!! According to Tropical Tidbits, the Niño 1+2 - area dropped about 0,6oC in just a day or so(!!) Road to strong La Niña or what?! :o

See more at: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png)

and: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png)

RIP Godzilla El Niño!!
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on April 13, 2016, 04:16:44 PM
EXTREMLY HUGE cooling of SSTs in the far Eastern Pacific!! According to Tropical Tidbits, the Niño 1+2 - area dropped about 0,6oC in just a day or so(!!) Road to strong La Niña or what?! :o

See more at: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png)

and: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png)

RIP Godzilla El Niño!!

It's shown up on the latest unisys chart too.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssa&inv=0&t=cur (http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssa&inv=0&t=cur)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 13, 2016, 05:56:33 PM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -7.3:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 14, 2016, 03:34:17 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -8.3:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 14, 2016, 07:41:25 PM
The very strong cooling of the Nino 1+2 area continues. In just 3 days the temps have drooped with about 1,2oC.

Moreover, the MJO is forecasted to be stucked in phase 2-4 for the next 2 weeks or so.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on April 14, 2016, 08:00:05 PM
Latest CPC/IRI probabilistic forecast suggests there is a 70% chance of La Niña by Autumn 2016:

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume (http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume)


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Firi.columbia.edu%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2016%2F04%2Ffigure1.gif&hash=4b1a09e088389e946f43e7da8d4f880f)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 15, 2016, 03:33:34 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -10.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 15, 2016, 07:30:24 PM
The attached plot shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for April 15 2016; and while it indicates that the warm surface layer is relatively thin, it is still not clear to me that upwelling of the cooler deeper water will occur any time in the near-term:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 16, 2016, 01:16:19 AM
Per the linked article, India is currently experiencing much higher temperatures than normal for this time of year.  Again, I am concerned that if our current El Nino conditions drop into the weak range by mid-June, the current heatwave could be compounded by a failure of India's summer monsoon rains; possibly leading to severe drought conditions:

http://www.seeker.com/high-temps-in-india-and-greenland-1731665799.html (http://www.seeker.com/high-temps-in-india-and-greenland-1731665799.html)

Extract: "2016 has seen higher than usual temperatures around the world, most recently in India and Greenland. Temperatures are soaring in India earlier than usual this year, with no sign of cooling down. Dozens of people have been reported dead in India's southern states, according to the BBC. The city of Bhubaneswar in Orissa reached a record high for April on Monday at 114 degrees Fahrenheit (45.8C).
The monsoon season typically starts in mid-June in India, and temperatures always climb beforehand, but this year's heatwave came much sooner than expected. The extreme heat has extended throughout most of the country."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 16, 2016, 03:28:52 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -11.7:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on April 16, 2016, 05:47:35 AM
Adding the ECMWF plumes. Not much to get exited about right now though. The trend in them this year have been that most members have been indicating colder than reality has proven. Also adding a comparison from NOAA for Nino3.4 vs earlier events.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 17, 2016, 04:24:07 AM
Adding the ECMWF plumes. Not much to get exited about right now though. The trend in them this year have been that most members have been indicating colder than reality has proven. Also adding a comparison from NOAA for Nino3.4 vs earlier events.

Thanks again Sleepy, as your plots remind us all that before an official La Nina can be declared, the ONI needs to stay at or below -0.5 for five consecutive 3-month overlaying periods (for a total period of seven months).

Also, the attached plot issued today by the BoM, indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has continued plunging down to -12.8:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on April 17, 2016, 07:33:28 AM
Only two views on the attached comparison from NOAA in my previuos comment and one is my own. Hmm, maybe I'm too obsessed with the timeframe here, but I think it's important. This event is not a repeat of 97-98 and I think a follow up like then, is not possible as things looks now.
More speculations, it feels like the models are underestimating the OHC and the recent cooling in Nino1+2 might be facing a tough time soon.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 17, 2016, 08:40:06 AM
Only two views on the attached comparison from NOAA in my previuos comment and one is my own.

For what it is worth, when an image is so large that is requires using the slide-bar to see then it receives fewer views.  If you resize it, like the attached, then it normally receives more views.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on April 17, 2016, 10:53:11 AM
Yes that might be the case ASLR. But I didn't want to resize that graph since the original was better to look at.
It was also not clear that it was a follow up to my previous comment in #517:
Quote
The time frame is important, as later transitions into a La Nina has (historically) produced weaker and/or delayed events. We would like to see negative SSTs in June and by late July we would like to see OLR and SOI persistently positive if we whish to see a stronger La Nina.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 17, 2016, 05:46:51 PM
According to latest NOAA analysis it seems like the thin layer of warmer water will be gone soon. OTOH, TAO/TRITON has a somewhat different picture. And what the heck is the MJO doing?! :o Big differences between NCPE, NCPB and ECMWF. The first suggests a weak to moderate WWB to emerge while the later suggests more destructive interference.

The first attached pic shows a more closer look at the SST anomalies for the equatorial Pacific. Notice that the pic is having a different scale compared to the one ASLR use to post.

The second one is also from NOAA but extending all the way to South America. The third one shows the MJO forecast from NCPB while the fourth and last one shows the same forecast but from ECMWF (the corrected one).

I'm sure ASLR can give a clearer pic of the differences which to me might be critical for whether we may head into a La Niña or not.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 18, 2016, 03:34:36 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued plunging down to -14.7:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on April 18, 2016, 09:09:34 AM
Let me try to blur things.
Atmospheric response is critical but we are in the spring barrier.
Statistical models are no good right now and they normally starts to show some skill in May, dynamical models already in March, but not much better than the roll of a dice.
Atmospheric forecasts are normally good for a couple of weeks. Right now all forecasts are affected since the signals are low and the noise is high. The atmosphere also likes to respond to SST gradients over the pacific, we don't see much of that now, apart from that cooling in the far eastern part.

A note about subsurface temperatures, the thermocline in the far eastern part is shallower so readings there are less realistic than near the dateline where the thermocline is deeper.

Add the following study to blur things up a bit more regarding the models: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3057-z (http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3057-z)
And quoting the abstract:
Quote
Various observation-based datasets are employed to robustly quantify changes in ocean heat content (OHC), anomalous ocean–atmosphere energy exchanges and atmospheric energy transports during El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These results are used as a benchmark to evaluate the energy pathways during ENSO as simulated by coupled climate model runs from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives. The models are able to qualitatively reproduce observed patterns of ENSO-related energy budget variability to some degree, but key aspects are seriously biased. Area-averaged tropical Pacific OHC variability associated with ENSO is greatly underestimated by all models because of strongly biased responses of net radiation at top-of-the-atmosphere to ENSO. The latter are related to biases of mean convective activity in the models and project on surface energy fluxes in the eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone region. Moreover, models underestimate horizontal and vertical OHC redistribution in association with the generally too weak Bjerknes feedback, leading to a modeled ENSO affecting a too shallow layer of the Pacific. Vertical links between SST and OHC variability are too weak even in models driven with observed winds, indicating shortcomings of the ocean models. Furthermore, modeled teleconnections as measured by tropical Atlantic OHC variability are too weak and the tropical zonal mean ENSO signal is strongly underestimated or even completely missing in most of the considered models. Results suggest that attempts to infer insight about climate sensitivity from ENSO-related variability are likely to be hampered by biases in ENSO in CMIP simulations that do not bear a clear link to future changes.

We can still speculate though but I will be tremendously surprised if we enter a strong La Nina this year, or next.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 18, 2016, 03:35:44 PM
The linked reference uses the CESM to study the differences & similarities between El Ninos and global warming induced El Nino-like SST patterns in the tropical Pacific Ocean.  Among numerous other finding, the study confirms that continued global warming will increase the frequency of intense El Nino events:

Fukai Liu, Yiyong Luo, Jian Lu & Xiuquan Wan (15 April 2016), "Response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to El Niño versus global warming", Climate Dynamics, pp 1-22, DOI 10.1007/s00382-016-3119-2



http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3119-2 (http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3119-2)


Abstract: "Climate models project an El Niño-like SST response in the tropical Pacific Ocean to global warming (GW). By employing the Community Earth System Model and applying an overriding technique to its ocean component, Parallel Ocean Program version 2, this study investigates the similarity and difference of formation mechanism for the changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean under El Niño and GW. Results show that, despite sharing some similarities between the two scenarios, there are many significant distinctions between GW and El Niño: (1) the phase locking of the seasonal cycle reduction is more notable under GW compared with El Niño, implying more extreme El Niño events in the future; (2) in contrast to the penetration of the equatorial subsurface temperature anomaly that appears to propagate in the form of an oceanic equatorial upwelling Kelvin wave during El Niño, the GW-induced subsurface temperature anomaly manifest in the form of off-equatorial upwelling Rossby waves; (3) while significant across-equator northward heat transport (NHT) is induced by the wind stress anomalies associated with El Niño, little NHT is found at the equator due to a symmetric change in the shallow meridional overturning circulation that appears to be weakened in both North and South Pacific under GW; and (4) heat budget analysis shows that the maintaining mechanisms for the eastern equatorial Pacific warming are also substantially different."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 18, 2016, 04:29:23 PM
We can still speculate though but I will be tremendously surprised if we enter a strong La Nina this year, or next.

I agree with Sleepy, that I would be tremendously surprised if a strong La Nina forms in 2016; and I believe that it is even premature to state that a weak La Nina will be officially recognized in 2016 (although a weak La Nina this year is possible).  The following weekly NOAA Nino indices indicate that the Nino 3.4 index remained unchanged at +1.3C for the week centered on April 13 2016 (which is higher than all of the dynamic forecasts projected for this period).

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 02MAR2016     27.3 1.0     28.6 1.8     28.9 1.9     29.5 1.4
 09MAR2016     27.7 1.2     28.6 1.6     28.9 1.8     29.6 1.5
 16MAR2016     27.5 1.0     28.8 1.7     28.9 1.7     29.6 1.4
 23MAR2016     27.2 0.9     28.6 1.4     28.8 1.5     29.5 1.2
 30MAR2016     27.5 1.5     28.9 1.6     29.0 1.5     29.5 1.1
 06APR2016     27.1 1.3     28.8 1.4     28.9 1.3     29.3 0.9
 13APR2016     25.6 0.1     28.6 1.2     29.1 1.3     29.3 0.8

Also, the first attached image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from April 18 to 25 2016, showing a reasonably strong WWB that should help support our current weak downwelling EKW phase (thus sustaining the relatively thin warm surface layer for some time to come).  The second image shows the Earth 850-hPa Wind & MSLP forecast for April 22 2016, showing that the forecast WWB is associated with a SPCZ low pressure system.

The third & fourth images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending April 17 2016, with the third image indicating that the Nino 3.4 index is +1.07C, and the fourth image shows that the IOD remains neutral.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 18, 2016, 04:37:12 PM
The first image shows NOAA's modeled Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom & Temp Profile for April 13 2016.  The second image shows the TAO observed Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Profile and Temp Anom issued April 18 2016.  These images both show that the thin warm surface layer remains intact in the Central Eq Pacific, which is key for the continued production of evaporation that decreases the trade winds and allows for the WWB forecast by both the nullschool & the U at Albany this week.

The third & fourth images were issued today by NOAA for the Evolution of the Eq Pac for the SSTA and Upper-Ocean Heat Anom, respectively.  These images indicate slowly (not rapidly) degrading El Nino conditions.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 18, 2016, 04:41:38 PM
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending April 17 2016 showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Note that the cooling trend in the Nino 1 & 2 regions is less pronounced than the daily Tropical Tidbit reports have indicated.  Otherwise, these values all confirm that El Nino conditions are slowly degrading.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on April 18, 2016, 06:23:29 PM
The BoM updated today their summary of international model outlooks for the Niño 3.4 index:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean)

May 2016:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F9TSTwxv.png&hash=38a1ee3ec564c6cda2e4c3513ab1a4c8)

July 2016:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FoybJ7ja.png&hash=94f1134943b058b25ecccce3079120be)

September 2016:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FNGhVU0y.png&hash=0e5cdc0a9145d759994f2f856a87002d)


Quote
The all-model average NINO3.4 outlook for May is +0.5 °C, which is within neutral bounds (i.e., no longer at El Niño levels). By July, the model average drops to -0.8 °C (La Niña levels), with September the average dropping slightly further to -1.0 °C.

While model skill is generally low at this time of year, particularly for forecasts beyond mid-year, there is a strong model consensus for significantly cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean. Six of eight models indicate La Niña will form. The seventh model briefly falls into La Niña levels during July, but does not exceed La Niña thresholds for long enough to be considered an event.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 18, 2016, 06:29:38 PM
The attached image was taken from the BoM website today and shows that the Eq Dateline cloud cover (OLR) has been and remains cloudy; which, indicates that the Walker Cell could help to slow the rate of decline of our current moderate strength El Nino.

Edit: The second attached image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 200-hPa Wind Anom forecast from April 18 to 25 2016.  This image confirms that the Walker Cell is contributing to slow the rate of decline of our current moderate strength El Nino.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 19, 2016, 03:32:46 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -15.2:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 19, 2016, 05:08:57 PM
Per the linked Cyclocane warning there is a high probability of a tropical cyclone in the South Pacific within the next 24 hours (see first attached image issued by Cyclocane on April 19 2016 & the second attached image of the nullschool Earth 850-hPa Wind & MSLP Map for April 19 2016):

http://www.cyclocane.com/tropical-storm-risk/#spac (http://www.cyclocane.com/tropical-storm-risk/#spac)

Extract: "SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.1S
176.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 175.9W, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM WEST
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH LIMITED CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 190251Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH ASSOCIATED, LIMITED CONVECTION
WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. A 181800Z
PARTIAL WINDSAT PASS FURTHER SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL, BUT IMPROVING, ENVIRONMENT WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND AN EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD INTO A MARGINALLY BETTER VWS ENVIRONMENT WITH
CORRESPONDING SLOW CONSOLIDATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 30
CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE AND IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 190400) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 19, 2016, 09:24:42 PM
The linked article puts a human face (from Africa to Asia to South America) on the worldwide suffering caused by our current El Nino.  In the extract, I focus on the recent suffering in India due to El Nino impacts on the Indian Monsoons, as I am concerned that the associated suffering in 2016 in India could be still greater, if a weak El Nino still exists by this coming early boreal summer:


http://gulfnews.com/culture/environment/el-ni-o-upsets-seasons-and-upends-lives-globally-1.1710558 (http://gulfnews.com/culture/environment/el-ni-o-upsets-seasons-and-upends-lives-globally-1.1710558)

Extract: "A Blow to India’s Monsoons
For the first time in his life, Jeevan Lal Yadav from Mahoba district has been getting his wheat and vegetables from the market 8 kilometres away, rather than from his own farm.
Yadav, 43, has not been able to grow anything this past year on the two hectares he cultivates here in the heart of northern India, parts of which are experiencing a severe drought.
He is one of millions struggling after a strong El Niño led to reduced rain from the southwest monsoons.
Rainfall in 2015 from monsoons, which sweep over most of India from June to September, was 14 per cent below the average. The reduction was more than 40 per cent in some areas, including India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, where Yadav lives.
Because most Indians are farmers, and a majority rely entirely on the monsoon rains, a blow to the rainy season is devastating, rendering lives barely recognisable."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 20, 2016, 03:31:11 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued dropping down to -16.4:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on April 20, 2016, 07:01:44 AM
The linked reference uses the CESM to study the differences & similarities between El Ninos and global warming induced El Nino-like SST patterns in the tropical Pacific Ocean.  Among numerous other finding, the study confirms that continued global warming will increase the frequency of intense El Nino events:

Fukai Liu, Yiyong Luo, Jian Lu & Xiuquan Wan (15 April 2016), "Response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to El Niño versus global warming", Climate Dynamics, pp 1-22, DOI 10.1007/s00382-016-3119-2



http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3119-2 (http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3119-2)


Abstract: "Climate models project an El Niño-like SST response in the tropical Pacific Ocean to global warming (GW). By employing the Community Earth System Model and applying an overriding technique to its ocean component, Parallel Ocean Program version 2, this study investigates the similarity and difference of formation mechanism for the changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean under El Niño and GW. Results show that, despite sharing some similarities between the two scenarios, there are many significant distinctions between GW and El Niño: (1) the phase locking of the seasonal cycle reduction is more notable under GW compared with El Niño, implying more extreme El Niño events in the future; (2) in contrast to the penetration of the equatorial subsurface temperature anomaly that appears to propagate in the form of an oceanic equatorial upwelling Kelvin wave during El Niño, the GW-induced subsurface temperature anomaly manifest in the form of off-equatorial upwelling Rossby waves; (3) while significant across-equator northward heat transport (NHT) is induced by the wind stress anomalies associated with El Niño, little NHT is found at the equator due to a symmetric change in the shallow meridional overturning circulation that appears to be weakened in both North and South Pacific under GW; and (4) heat budget analysis shows that the maintaining mechanisms for the eastern equatorial Pacific warming are also substantially different."
Thanks ASLR.
The submitted print version can be found here:
http://wxmaps.org/jianlu/Liu_Luo_Lu.CLDY15.submitted.pdf (http://wxmaps.org/jianlu/Liu_Luo_Lu.CLDY15.submitted.pdf)
Quoting the first part of the summary:
Quote
6. Summary and discussion
There is increasing evidence that climate models tend to produce an El Niño-like sea surface response in the tropical Pacific under the forcing of increasing concentration of greenhouse gases. However, through a GW-El Niño inter-comparison analysis, we find that many of the GW response features in the ocean as well as the related maintaining mechanisms turn out to be quite different from a typical El Niño. As summarized in Fig. 14, the major similarities and differences for the annual mean response are:

1. Both El Niño- and GW-induced patterns are featured with weakened equatorial trade winds. In response to the slowdown of the trade winds, there appears to be weakening in zonal SEC and meridional STC, enhancements in surface warming over the EEP and shoaling of thermoclines in the WEP.
2. Associated with the eastward shift of the weakened easterlies, the surface-warming center moves eastward and the weakening of the SEC are more significant in the EEP under GW in contrast to El Niño.
3. Over the EEP region, GW induces greater warming in the surface than subsurface while it is the other way around during El Niño. Taken together, GW-induced response is characteristic more of an enhanced stratification in the upper ocean than a shallower thermocline, whereas El Niño corresponds to a weaker upper ocean stratification and a deeper thermocline.

Also attaching fig. 14 where the first picture depicts the changes for El Nino and the second, Global Warming.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 20, 2016, 05:57:00 PM
The first image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from April 20 to 27 2016, showing a slightly more intense WWB than yesterday's forecast.

The second image shows the nullschool Earth 850-hPa Wind & MSLP forecast for April 22 2016 (the peak of the WWB).

The third image & the following extract are from Cyclocane's 48-hr forecast for the South Pacific, showing TC-20P and a nearby tropical disturbance:

Extract: "SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 200000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WAS LOCATED NEAR
13.1S 178.2W, APPROXIMATELY 316 NM WEST OF AVATA SAMOA, AND HAD
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 200300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.0S 159.2W,
APPROXIMATELY 435 NM WEST OF BORA BORA. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE CIRCULATION LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) AND STRONG POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PATTERN IS LESS THAN OPTIMAL, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 21, 2016, 03:32:57 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued dropping down to -17.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Revillo on April 21, 2016, 06:22:40 AM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/04/20/and-then-we-wept-scientists-say-93-percent-of-the-great-barrier-reef-now-bleached/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/04/20/and-then-we-wept-scientists-say-93-percent-of-the-great-barrier-reef-now-bleached/)

"This is, by far, the worst bleaching they’ve seen on the Great Barrier Reef."

I remember visiting the great barrier reef and scuba diving through its corals about 10 years ago. The threat of bleaching was discussed at an exhibit at the Townsville Aquarium, with samples of corals withering and dying for us tourists to gawk at. Back then, they weren't really talking about climate change. I was hearing more talk about pollution and fertilizer runoff and pesky tourists dumping who knows what overboard. They were so strict that if you dropped anything off the boat they made you eat a spoonful of vegemite as punishment.

It's clear now that heat both from el nino and global warming seems to play the biggest role in bleaching, and the reef might recover somewhat until the next heatwave, and then who knows. I have to wonder if I'll be among the last generation to have seen a living reef.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 21, 2016, 04:44:02 PM
As our current El Nino lingers, the current heatwave/drought cited in the linked article could get worse by early summer:

http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2016/apr/21/india-drought-flooding-natural-disasters-risk-population-economy-insurance (http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2016/apr/21/india-drought-flooding-natural-disasters-risk-population-economy-insurance)

Extract: "High temperatures and a crippling shortage of rainfall in India is forcing schools to close and communities to ration drinking water."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 21, 2016, 05:49:38 PM
The first image show the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast April 21 to 28 2016 indicating that the forecast WWB is stronger than previously forecast.

The second & third images show the nullschool Earth 850-hPa Wind & MSLP maps for April 21 and 22 2016, respectively; & both show how strong the current WWB is.

The last image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom issued April 21 2016, showing (together with the information about the WWB) that the relatively warm surface layer in the Nino 3 and 3.4 regions are not going to dissipate quickly.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 22, 2016, 03:39:16 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -18.2:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 23, 2016, 03:25:14 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average has continued plunging down to -19.6:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 23, 2016, 08:00:02 PM
The linked article provides some evidence that the monsoons in India are already weak, and if I am right that the current El Nino may likely degrade relatively slowly, then the cited suffering of 330 million Indians could well become much worse:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/20/india-drought-affecting-330-million-people-weak-monsoons (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/20/india-drought-affecting-330-million-people-weak-monsoons)

Extract: "About 330 million people are affected by drought in India, the government has said, as the country reels from severe water shortages and desperately poor farmers suffer crop losses.

A senior government lawyer, PS Narasimha, told the supreme court that a quarter of the country’s population, spread across 10 states, had been hit by drought after two consecutive years of weak monsoons."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 24, 2016, 03:22:40 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -20.2:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 25, 2016, 03:37:55 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -20.1:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 25, 2016, 04:54:19 PM
The following NOAA weekly Nino indices information indicates that all indices are down except the Nino 4 index that remained constant at 0.8, while the Nino 3.4 is at 1.1C for the week centered on April 20 2016:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 09MAR2016     27.7 1.2     28.6 1.6     28.9 1.8     29.6 1.5
 16MAR2016     27.5 1.0     28.8 1.7     28.9 1.7     29.6 1.4
 23MAR2016     27.2 0.9     28.6 1.4     28.8 1.5     29.5 1.2
 30MAR2016     27.5 1.5     28.9 1.6     29.0 1.5     29.5 1.1
 06APR2016     27.1 1.3     28.8 1.4     28.9 1.3     29.3 0.9
 13APR2016     25.6 0.1     28.6 1.2     29.1 1.3     29.3 0.8
 20APR2016     24.7-0.6     28.0 0.6     28.9 1.1     29.4 0.8

The first & second images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending April 24 2016, indicating that the Nino 3.4 index is down to +1.05C while the IOD remains neutral.

The third and fourth images were issued today by NOAA showing the Eq Pac Evolution for SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively, both indicating that the current EKW may be bottoming-out:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 25, 2016, 04:58:30 PM
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending April 24 2016, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 and 4 indices, respectively.  Note that the Nino 4 index is up to +0.88C(while all the others are down):
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 25, 2016, 05:15:24 PM
The first image shows NOAA Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued April 25 2016 supporting the idea that the current EKW may have reached a trough.

The second image show the TAO Subsurface Temp Profile & Temp Anom issued April 25 2016, showing that in the Nino 3, 3.4 & 4 regions that the thin warm surface layer has been stabilized by recent WWB activity.

The third image show the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind anom forecast from April 25 to May 2 2016, showing a hint of possible WWB activity at the end of the forecast period.

The fourth image shows the nullschool Earth Current & SSTA Map for April 23 2016, showing that the SSTA in the Eastern Tropical Pacific has turned mostly negative while the Western Tropical Pacific remains mostly positive.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 26, 2016, 03:36:04 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -20.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 27, 2016, 05:31:39 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -20.7:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on April 27, 2016, 07:12:41 AM
Hmm, we should be seeing a rapid shift in the SOI values by now, but we're not. Looking at the latest 90-day values at longpaddock (april 20&21) they actually dropped slightly. There's still some time for a rapid shift in the coming weeks.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: wili on April 27, 2016, 11:14:39 AM
I don't know whether it is part of the aftermath of the Super El Nino, but South Asia is going through one Hell of a heat wave right now:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fgdb.voanews.com%2F80DD7059-3955-4955-A738-059DAC9561B1_mw1024_s_n.png&hash=7a4ad8889f7b711934ad526b94da5b58)

And it's still only April!

http://www.voanews.com/content/punishing-heat-wave-sets-records-across-asia/3304515.html (http://www.voanews.com/content/punishing-heat-wave-sets-records-across-asia/3304515.html)

Nearly 200 already dead, just in India. Last year's heatwave killed over 2000 in India. How many will die from this across South Asia this year?

If anyone has info on wet bulb temps in any of these areas, please pass that data along.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 27, 2016, 06:24:48 PM
I don't know whether it is part of the aftermath of the Super El Nino, but South Asia is going through one Hell of a heat wave right now:

And it's still only April!

Nearly 200 already dead, just in India. Last year's heatwave killed over 2000 in India. How many will die from this across South Asia this year?

If anyone has info on wet bulb temps in any of these areas, please pass that data along.

The drought in India is intensifying and drought-migrants are moving to cities to access water:

http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/apr/27/india-drought-migrants-head-to-cities-in-desperate-search-for-water (http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/apr/27/india-drought-migrants-head-to-cities-in-desperate-search-for-water)

Extract: "India's drought migrants head to cities in desperate search for water
Parts of India are being parched by a drought that means farmers are unable to irrigate their fields, with some areas even running out of drinking water"
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 27, 2016, 06:33:56 PM
Latest analysis from NOAA per April 23 shows that the area with cold water have continued eastward and with a small area where the anomalies now are 5o below normal around 110W. See attached pic no 1.

The latest analysis per April 26 from another TAO/TRITON (NOAA) source reveals the same picture but also that the SSTAs are slowy increasing in the far Western Pacific. See second attached pic.

At this point, given the cold pool, I don't see how we are going to dodge a transition to a La Niña or cold neutral conditions.

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 28, 2016, 03:28:48 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has continued dropping down to -21.4:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on April 28, 2016, 09:35:53 AM
Longpaddock has now updated their SOI values to the 26:th and their 90-day average continued to drop as well, to -13.85.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 28, 2016, 04:55:29 PM
In the linked article Robert Scribbler discusses how this year over half a billion people worldwide face suffering from water and food shortages due to a combination of global warming and the residual effects of our degrading Super El Nino:

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/04/27/climate-change-drives-half-a-billion-people-to-suffer-hunger-water-shortages-as-droughts-and-heatwaves-wreck-crops-across-the-globe/


Extract: "Climate Change Drives Half a Billion People to Suffer Hunger, Water Shortages as Droughts and Heatwaves Wreck Crops Across the Globe
At least 12 Indian states are believed to be facing famine and experts have warned that the water crisis could worsen if urgent action is not taken.

El Nino has caused that heat to build up over the Equatorial and near-Equatorial regions of the world. Serving as a kind of human-forced warming amplifier for drought, heat, and water stress in these regions.
For the Summer of 2016, following one of the strongest El Ninos on record and entering a period when the world has never experienced such amazingly high global temperatures, the level of disruption is likely to be extraordinarily severe. Record heat will pull more moisture from soils and rivers than ever before, will take down the mountain snows that still exist faster than ever before, will dwindle the remaining glaciers to the lowest levels yet seen. In addition, consistent warm air invasions into the Arctic will tend to create high amplitude waves in the Jet Stream — setting up zones where droughts and heatwaves are further enhanced. So the crisis period for the Summer of 2016 has just begun."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 28, 2016, 05:07:09 PM
The first image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N Eq Pac 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from April 28 to May 5 2016, showing some limited but strategically (for sustaining the thin warm surface layer in the Nino 3, 3.4 and 4 regions) timed/positioned WWB activity.

The second image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom profile issued April 28 2016, showing that indeed the thin warm surface layer remains stable in the Nino 3, 3.4 and 4 regions.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 29, 2016, 03:41:43 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -21.4:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 29, 2016, 07:50:25 PM
The first image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N Eq Pac 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from April 29 to May 6 2016, showing some limited but strategically (for sustaining the thin warm surface layer in the Nino 3, 3.4 and 4 regions) timed/positioned WWB activity.

The second image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom profile issued April 29 2016, showing that indeed the thin warm surface layer remains stable in the Nino 3, 3.4 and 4 regions.

The third image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom profile for April 23 2016, which largely support the TAO observations.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 30, 2016, 01:13:42 AM
El Niño and the stratospheric polar vortex

"El Niño, with its modified planetary waves, tends to promote the breakdown of the polar vortex"
Quote
ENSO influences climate all over the world by generating planetary-scale “wave trains” that shift the jet stream and associated weather patterns.  During El Niño winters, these wave trains may occur more often in an ideal location to strengthen into the stratosphere, causing a weaker stratospheric polar vortex in late winter and more frequent major disruptions of the polar vortex....

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/el-ni%C3%B1o-and-stratospheric-polar-vortex (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/el-ni%C3%B1o-and-stratospheric-polar-vortex)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 30, 2016, 03:38:38 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -21.3:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 30, 2016, 05:35:10 PM
According to Tropical Tidbits, CDAS Niño 3.4-index dropped below +1,0 and is now at +0,972. This means that our El Niño have dropped to the weak range. In addtion, the Niño 1+2-area have warmed anomalously much the last couple of days and is now at +0,351 above normal.

If the Indian Ocean continues to warm, Tropical Tidbits will soon have to extend their upper limit to 33oC.

According to Mike Ventrices figure, moderate westerly anomalies will emerge now in the far Eastern Pacific.

//LMV
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 01, 2016, 03:26:49 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -21.2:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 01, 2016, 11:03:16 AM
Compared to the April 25 2016 image shown in Reply #569, the attached nullschool Earth Ocean Current & SSTA map for April 29 2016, indicates that the cool surface regions of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific are beginning to decrease in extent (possibly due to recent WWB activity).  Also, I note that this image indicates that the PDO value for April will likely remain positive.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 01, 2016, 05:24:18 PM
With our current El Nino heading into the weak range, this could intensify the drought in India that is already severe:

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/04/30/asia-pacific/parts-india-ban-daytime-cooking-hundreds-die-heat-fire/#.VyYca02UOP9 (http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/04/30/asia-pacific/parts-india-ban-daytime-cooking-hundreds-die-heat-fire/#.VyYca02UOP9)

Extract: "With sizzling temperatures claiming more than 300 lives in India in April, officials said they were banning daytime cooking in some parts of the drought-stricken country in a bid to prevent accidental fires that have killed nearly 80 more people."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Michael Hauber on May 02, 2016, 12:20:32 AM
Current 30 day forecast shows the atmosphere switching into a cool ENSO pattern in about two weeks time.  Trade winds are shown returning to normal through the Pacific, with weak easterly anomalies over the Australian region which represents a significant westward extension of trade wind activities and a transfer of enhanced convection out of the central and eastern Pacific and into the Australian and east Indian ocean region.  The forecast is still chopping and changing a bit, but there seems some consistency to the theme of an end to westerly anomalies within the forecast period.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmonitor.cicsnc.org%2Fmjo%2Fv2%2Fhov%2Fcfs%2Fuwnd850.cfs.eqtr.png&hash=cb640aea4934bbb8ad771e0dd18e643e)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 02, 2016, 03:16:29 AM
The two linked articles discuss why the spring "predictability barrier" for ENSO events represent such a challenge due to the complexity of the atmospheric-ocean system including: (a) the influence of salt in the ocean; (b) initialization challenges and (c) the physical size of the phenomena.  Therefore, most forecasts emphasizing the 50%-50% chance of a La Nina this year depends heavily on statistics of a relatively small amount of data, rather than on a clear understanding of the physical reality:

https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/opinion/michele-rienecker-nasa (https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/opinion/michele-rienecker-nasa)


Extract: "Why is it so difficult to represent ENSO in a computer model?
It's very much a coupled phenomenon, with subtle interactions between the atmosphere and ocean that make a difference in how ENSO evolves. You need a very good representation of the atmospheric boundary layer and the ocean surface layer. These are areas where a lot of model improvement is still needed. In the western Pacific, we've tended to just look at the upper-ocean temperature anomalies and how winds can force those anomalies and respond to them. Now we're learning how salt can mediate that exchange. What's called a barrier layer inhibits the mixing deep down to the thermocline in the western Pacific. It's a very complex environment. ENSO is also very large in scale, so it depends on conditions throughout the Pacific, not just westerly wind bursts driving a subsurface anomaly to the east. We've seen cases where conditions in the eastern Pacific can completely suppress a developing El Niño or La Niña.
What's the status of dynamical forecasts of El Niño and La Niña now versus a few years ago?
For the last big El Niño [1997–98], once the warming was underway, model predictions did very well, including predicting the subsequent cooling. After the 1998 La Niña, there was a change in sign of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO] in 1999, and a lot of the forecasts—including ours—tended to overpredict warming for a few years afterward. In the past we've tended to initialize the atmosphere by itself and the ocean by itself. When you do that, they tend to be slightly inconsistent and have a tendency to produce "shocks"—which can still happen in our model and others. For the next generation of models, our community will pay a lot more attention to coupling in the initialization. We also have a lot more data for initializing the ocean; the Argo floats give us more information on subsurface salinity, for example. One thing we recognize is that ENSO is not a purely cyclic phenomenon—there are differences in each event, which make them more difficult to predict. We're trying to look at larger-scale processes that affect the predictability of the ENSO system, such as the PDO, as well as the impacts of local wind variations.
Why do you think the GMAO model did so well with the onset of the current El Niño?
Our model tends to be sensitive to the subsurface conditions— it likes to generate anomalies—and our thermocline is quite sharp. Starting in January, the subsurface in the western Pacific tended to be warm, and so our model propagated those anomalies to the east and projected a warm event. However, we've only had one very large El Niño since we started doing forecasting in 1993. In terms of building up confidence in our forecasts, that presents a problem.
Can we get past the spring "predictability barrier" for ENSO forecasts?
Once you get through the July time frame, the forecasts tend to do better, but in March-April-May, it's really tough. The westerly wind bursts, which are important when they have a long duration and long fetch, represent a chaotic input that is difficult to predict. So it's tough for prediction models to get things right. We're now realizing that the information we can get in a month's time is quite important. So instead of doing only one forecast a month, groups are starting to do predictions more frequently throughout the month in order to include the high-frequency information from winds across the Pacific."

See also:
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/march-2016-el-ni%C3%B1o-update-spring-forward (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/march-2016-el-ni%C3%B1o-update-spring-forward)

Extract: "Where does the 50% chance of La Niña come from? Forecasters take into consideration what happened in the past, the predictions of computer models, and current conditions when making their forecast.
La Niña conditions have followed six of the ten moderate and strong El Niños since 1950, including two of the three previous strongest El Niños. However, this small number of cases means that it’s hard to make a very confident forecast based only on the previous events."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 02, 2016, 03:21:46 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -22.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 02, 2016, 04:58:40 PM
Per the following Nino data issued by NOAA thru the week centered on April 27 2016, the Nino 3.4 has dropped down to +0.8C (and thus is weak which puts India's current drought at risk of intensifying); while both the Nino 4 and the Nino 1+ 2 indices increased from last week:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 06APR2016     27.1 1.3     28.8 1.4     28.9 1.3     29.3 0.9
 13APR2016     25.6 0.1     28.6 1.2     29.1 1.3     29.3 0.8
 20APR2016     24.7-0.6     28.0 0.6     28.9 1.1     29.4 0.8
 27APR2016     24.7-0.3     27.7 0.4     28.7 0.8     29.5 0.9

The first two attached images were issued today by the BoM; for the week ending May 1 2016, indicating that the Nino 3.4 dropped down to +0.81C and that the IOD is now positive but neutral.

The last two images were issued today by NOAA & show the Eq Pac. Evolutions for the: Upper Ocean Heat Anom, and SSTA, respectively; indicating that the thin warm surface layer of water is still intact near the Nino 3.4 & 4 regions.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 02, 2016, 05:02:04 PM
The four attached images were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending May 1 2016, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively; confirming that the Nino 4 increased while the Eastern Equatorial Pacific continues to cool.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 02, 2016, 05:12:25 PM
The first two attached images were issued today by NOAA with the first showing that the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom may have plateaued; while the second attached image shows the Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom model projection for April 28 2016 indicating that the Eastern Eq. Pacific water is cool.

The third image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom issued May 2 2016, indicating a small zone of warm surface water in the Eastern Eq Pacific.

The fourth image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast for May 2 to 9 2016, confirming that there is currently a weak WWB near 100W; which might (or might not) continue to advect some warm surface water from the Western to the Eastern Eq Pacific.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 02, 2016, 06:15:08 PM
The linked article indicates that the drought in India has intensified to the point that the government must use armed guards to protect reservoirs:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/02/armed-guards-at-indias-dams-as-drought-grips-country (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/02/armed-guards-at-indias-dams-as-drought-grips-country)

Extract: "Desperate farmers from a neighbouring state regularly attempt to steal water from the Barighat dam, forcing authorities in central Madhya Pradesh to protect it with armed guards to ensure supplies.
India is officially in the grip of its worst water crisis in years, with the government saying that about 330 million people, or a quarter of the population, are suffering from drought after the last two monsoons failed.
“Water is more precious than gold in this area,” Purshotam Sirohi, who was hired by the local municipality to protect the dam, in Tikamgarh district, told AFP.
“We are protecting the dam round the clock.”"
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 03, 2016, 03:32:09 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -21.0
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 04, 2016, 03:25:28 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -20.7:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 05, 2016, 03:24:16 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -19.7:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 05, 2016, 11:05:59 PM
If the upcoming forecast for MJO verifies, we should see destructive interference for El Nino by mid May as strong easterlies will encompass the whole Pacific. This should be a big threat to the warm layer in Nino 4 area. Moreover, ifverified it should clearly increase the odds for a transition to La Nina.

Cortesy NOAA.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Forigin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fpeople%2Fmchen%2FCFSv2FCST%2Fweekly%2Fimages1%2Fwk3.wk4_20160504.wnd850.gif&hash=2a85144f6340867490ea9a61a4eec92a)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Michael Hauber on May 06, 2016, 02:33:47 AM
If that verifies it will totally smash the warm water along the equatorial warm pool.

All models are showing a transition to cool ENSO conditions in the next few months, although the models are not clear on whether the cooling will be strong enough to qualify as a La Nina.  Only ECMWF allows the possibility of a rebound back to warmer than average conditions later this year, although it is one of the best models.  In nearly all historical instances of a strong el nino switching to cool ENSO conditions cool ENSO conditions have lasted at least 2 years.

The CFS 30 day forecast has been fairly consistent in forecasting an end to suppression of the trade winds by next week for a while now.  With significant subsurface cool anomalies even normal trade winds should be enough for these cooler subsurface waters to displace the thin layer of warm water above.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 06, 2016, 03:24:32 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -18.6:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 06, 2016, 10:35:18 PM
As the Arctic tends to lose more sea ice during La Nina years, and as La Nina events are more frequent during the negative phase of the PDO; the findings of the linked reference are not surprising concludes that: " We speculate that the observed recent shift to the positive PDO phase, if maintained and all other factors being equal, could act to temporarily reduce the pace of wintertime Arctic warming in the near future."

James A. Screen & Jennifer A. Francis (2016), "Contribution of sea-ice loss to Arctic amplification is regulated by Pacific Ocean decadal variability", Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3011


http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3011.html (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3011.html)

Abstract: "The pace of Arctic warming is about double that at lower latitudes—a robust phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. Many diverse climate processes and feedbacks cause Arctic amplification, including positive feedbacks associated with diminished sea ice. However, the precise contribution of sea-ice loss to Arctic amplification remains uncertain. Through analyses of both observations and model simulations, we show that the contribution of sea-ice loss to wintertime Arctic amplification seems to be dependent on the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Our results suggest that, for the same pattern and amount of sea-ice loss, consequent Arctic warming is larger during the negative PDO phase relative to the positive phase, leading to larger reductions in the poleward gradient of tropospheric thickness and to more pronounced reductions in the upper-level westerlies. Given the oscillatory nature of the PDO, this relationship has the potential to increase skill in decadal-scale predictability of the Arctic and sub-Arctic climate. Our results indicate that Arctic warming in response to the ongoing long-term sea-ice decline is greater (reduced) during periods of the negative (positive) PDO phase. We speculate that the observed recent shift to the positive PDO phase, if maintained and all other factors being equal, could act to temporarily reduce the pace of wintertime Arctic warming in the near future."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 06, 2016, 11:23:29 PM
The linked reference finds that natural variability increases with increasing global warming; indicating that we can expect to experience more intense El Nino & La Nina events with continued global warming:

Xiuhua Zhu , John Bye, Klaus Fraedrich and Isabella Bordi (2016), "Statistical structure of intrinsic climate variability under global warming", Journal of Climate, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0505.1 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0505.1)

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0505.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0505.1)

Abstract: "Climate variability is often studied in terms of fluctuations with respect to the mean state, whereas the dependence between the mean and variability is rarely discussed. We propose a new climate metric to measure the relationship between means and standard deviations of annual surface temperature computed over non-overlapping 100-year segments. This metric is analyzed based on equilibrium simulations of the Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model (MPI-ESM): the last millennium climate (800-1799), the future climate projection following the A1B scenario (2100-2199), and the 3100-year unforced control simulation. A linear relationship is globally observed in the control simulation and thus termed intrinsic climate variability, which is most pronounced in the tropical region with negative regression slopes over the Pacific warm pool and positive slopes in the eastern tropical Pacific. It relates to asymmetric changes in temperature extremes and associates fluctuating climate means with increase or decrease in intensity and occurrence of both El Niño and La Niña events. In the future scenario period, the linear regression slopes largely retain their spatial structure with appreciable changes in intensity and geographical locations. Since intrinsic climate variability describes the internal rhythm of the climate system, it may serve as guidance for interpreting climate variability and climate change signals in the past and the future."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 06, 2016, 11:56:22 PM
The linked reference discusses atmospheric & oceanic coupling & the ENSO cycle:

Zeng-Zhen Hu, Yu-heng Tseng, Wanqiu Wang, Arun Kumar, Jieshun Zhu & Bhaskar Jha (03 May 2016), "Does vertical temperature gradient of the atmosphere matter for El Niño development?", Climate Dynamics, pp 1-17, DOI 10.1007/s00382-016-3149-9


http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3149-9 (http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3149-9)

Abstract: "In this work, we examine the connection of vertical temperature gradient of the tropospheric atmosphere along the equator with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the possible impact of the long-term change of the gradient. It is suggested that when the temperature anomalies in the lower troposphere are relatively warmer (cooler) than in the upper troposphere, the atmosphere is less (more) stable and favors an El Niño (a La Niña) event to develop. ENSO evolutions in 1997–1998 and 2014–2015 events are good examples of this relationship. They started from similar ocean anomaly states in the springs of 1997 and 2014, but developed into an extreme El Niño in 1997–1998 and a borderline El Niño in 2014–2015. That may be partially due to differences in the evolutions of the vertical temperature anomaly gradient in troposphere. Thus, in addition to the significant atmospheric response to ENSO, the preconditioning of vertical gradient of the tropospheric temperature due to internal atmospheric processes to some extent may play an active role in affecting ENSO evolution. The long-term trend with more pronounced warming in the upper troposphere than in the lower troposphere causes a reduction in the vertical temperature gradient in the troposphere. Moreover, unlike almost homogenous warm anomalies in the upper troposphere, the lower troposphere shows remarkable regional features along the equator during 1979–2014, with cold anomaly trends over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean associated with the so-called hiatus and some warm anomalies on its two sides in the east and west. This vertical and zonal distribution of the air temperature trends in the troposphere over the Pacific Ocean is consistent with the convection suppression over the central Pacific since 2000, implying a weakening of atmosphere and ocean coupling."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 07, 2016, 03:28:36 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -18.4:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on May 07, 2016, 02:21:36 PM
Latest NMME multi-model ensemble forecast for Nino 3.4:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FLNUNQPg.png&hash=e14b95cb1b45d036b7c0c1a5696b1414)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/plume.html (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/plume.html)


June 2016:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FhDnlTwn.png&hash=04112e95ef105f9a6dd2d45f3a2666a1)

August 2016:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FjPeho5G.png&hash=7c3f505cac76c4d7c4a9a849d80d6696)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 08, 2016, 03:19:06 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -17.3:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 08, 2016, 05:19:24 PM
The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom issued May 8 2016, indicating that the thin warm surface layer has restored its integrity in the past few days; which is supported by the second image of the Tropical Tidbits Daily Nino 3.4 index which is back into the moderate El Nino range.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 09, 2016, 03:23:33 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -15.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 09, 2016, 04:46:07 PM
Per the following NOAA data issued for the week centered on May 4 2016, the Nino 3.4 remained constant at +0.8.  The first image shows the NOAA Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued May 8 2016, and the second image showing NOAA projection of the Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for May 3 2016, both indicating relatively stable oceanic conditions compared to the prior week:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 06APR2016     27.1 1.3     28.8 1.4     28.9 1.3     29.3 0.9
 13APR2016     25.6 0.1     28.6 1.2     29.1 1.3     29.3 0.8
 20APR2016     24.7-0.6     28.0 0.6     28.9 1.1     29.4 0.8
 27APR2016     24.7-0.3     27.7 0.4     28.7 0.8     29.5 0.9
 04MAY2016     25.1 0.4     27.6 0.4     28.6 0.8     29.5 0.8

The last two images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending May 8 2016, showing that the weekly Nino 3.4 and the weekly IOD, respectively, remained relatively stable as compared to the prior week.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 09, 2016, 04:48:30 PM
The four attached plots were issued today by the BoM for the week ending May 8 2016, and they show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, and indicate relatively stable conditions as compared to last week.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 09, 2016, 04:57:06 PM
The two attached images were issued today by NOAA, showing the Eq Pac Evolution for the SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively.  The both indicate slowly degrading El Nino conditions.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 10, 2016, 03:19:41 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -14.4:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 10, 2016, 05:44:56 PM
Is a major WWB about to emerge in the Indian Ocean with a rare formation of twin cyclones?! :o The ECMWF 00z run actually thinks so and develope two twin cyclones in a couple of days ahead. Of course, the Indian monsoon is about to set up in any day or so but twin cyclones? :o

We see them sometimes in the Western Pacific but this should be something extraordinary if twin cyclones would develope in the Indian Ocean! Or am I mistaken? Does anyone know how the OHC in the IO looks like right now? Should be quite high given the extraordinary high water temperatures there.

This is just pure speculation... What's your ideas about this?

WRT to the Pacific, in a day or so anomalously strong easterlies should start to emerge through virtually the whole Pacific basin. And the thin layer with warm water should shrink quite fast.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 10, 2016, 05:59:54 PM
Per Cyclocane there are no suspected tropical storms in the Indian Ocean within the next 48-hours (see the first attached image):

http://www.cyclocane.com/tropical-storm-risk/#sin (http://www.cyclocane.com/tropical-storm-risk/#sin)

Per TAO (see the second attached image) the thin warm upper ocean layer in the Western Eq Pac is still intact.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 10, 2016, 06:18:26 PM
There are some tropical development possibilities in the Indian Ocean, according to Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/) (Edit:  this graphic is 'live', so it changes every day.  Possible development is more likely on May 13 than it was on May 10.)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ssd.noaa.gov%2FPS%2FTROP%2FTCFP%2Fdata%2Fcurrent%2Fgl_rCUMP_048.gif&hash=8c1b4610839aee6686e4a63ce5d20941)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 11, 2016, 03:29:43 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -14.2:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 11, 2016, 05:59:59 PM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -14.2:
AbruptSLR or others:  Do you think the SOI going up (this time) is associated with the final demise of the El Nino?  Or do you see the possibility of events prolonging El Nino into June?
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 11, 2016, 06:22:30 PM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -14.2:
AbruptSLR or others:  Do you think the SOI going up (this time) is associated with the final demise of the El Nino?  Or do you see the possibility of events prolonging El Nino into June?

I assume that you are considering the weekly NOAA Nino 3.4 value as determining the "demise of the El Nino" as the ONI will likely indicate El Nino conditions until at least MJJ.  As LMV has indicated not only is the SOI going up now, but also the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast (see for image from May 11 to 18 2016) indicates easterly wind anoms; and the second attached image shows the NCPB (bias corrected) MJO forecast from May 10 to 24 2016, indicating that for this period the MJO should be disruptive to El Nino conditions.  That said the third image shows the location of the Nino Regions indicating that the Nino 3.4 is from 170W to 120W; while the fourth attached image shows that the warm surface layer (indicated by the TAO Eq Pac Temp and Temp Anom profiles issued May 11 2016) is nearly centered on this 170W to 120W region. 

Therefore, to answer your question, I suspect that the weekly NOAA Nino 3.4 will remain above +0.5 at least through June 11 2016, and whether it lasts after that depends on whether the active phase of the MJO moves aggressively from the Maritime Continent into the Western Pacific (where it becomes constructive to El Nino conditions) and then possibly on to the International Dateline by July where it might (or might not) generate WWBs.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 11, 2016, 07:19:41 PM
Thanks, AbruptSLR, for sharing your suspicions. 
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 11, 2016, 07:25:22 PM
Just some adds to yesterdays post about the possibility of twin TCs in Indian Ocean. Tweet no 2-4 from Levi Cowan are clearly the most intersting of them all. An earlier run from GFS at May 7 even had a double pair of twin cyclones in IO - no URL link to that as it is "old news"(!) The last tweet from MJ Ventrice consider yesterdays ECMWF EPS forecast for the wind anomalies at 850 hPa.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/729829103466057733 (https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/729829103466057733)

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/730438334938554368 (https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/730438334938554368)

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/729025363913940995 (https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/729025363913940995)

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/728643797467340801 (https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/728643797467340801)

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/729733481492787200 (https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/729733481492787200)

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/729828765925310465 (https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/729828765925310465)

And finally a very interesting article with link to the new study " http://research.noaa.gov/News/NewsArchive/LatestNews/TabId/684/ArtMID/1768/ArticleID/11723/Leftover-warm-water-in-Pacific-Ocean-fueled-massive-El-Ni241o.aspx (http://research.noaa.gov/News/NewsArchive/LatestNews/TabId/684/ArtMID/1768/ArticleID/11723/Leftover-warm-water-in-Pacific-Ocean-fueled-massive-El-Ni241o.aspx)

At the following URL you find the full article from Geophysical Research Letters where you can download a pdf: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069204/abstract (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069204/abstract)

Best, LMV
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Michael Hauber on May 11, 2016, 11:10:17 PM
The trade wind surge which is now underway will be the final demise of the el nino.  Nino 3.4 should easily be under el nino threshold by the end of May,
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 12, 2016, 03:18:54 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -14.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on May 12, 2016, 07:11:03 PM
According to today's update from CPC: 

Quote
La Niña is favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75% chance of La Nina during the fall and winter 2016-17.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html)



(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Firi.columbia.edu%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2016%2F05%2Ffigure1.gif&hash=2186711a0d51eef39bf40e3ce870c1be)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 13, 2016, 03:26:07 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -13.8:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 13, 2016, 11:19:28 AM
Latest analysis from Joint Typhoon Warning Center reveals that there are two area of invests in the Indian Ocean. Courtesy: Joint Typhoon Warning Center. (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.usno.navy.mil%2FNOOC%2Fnmfc-ph%2FRSS%2Fjtwc%2Fab%2Fabiosair.jpg&hash=23d72bef4c98fe6cc8c18b4abec8d417)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 13, 2016, 06:47:47 PM
According  to Emily Becker at NOAA, the subsurface temps in the Pacific during March-April was the second coolest, only trailing behind 1998. All of the six springs with the coolest temperature anomalies were followed by La Nina.

The whole text can be read at https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2016-el-niñola-niña-update-switcheroo (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2016-el-niñola-niña-update-switcheroo)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 14, 2016, 03:22:35 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -12.7:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 14, 2016, 11:33:29 AM
According to earth.nullschool.net and joint typhoon warning center there are now two twin cyclones in the Indian Ocean. They are right now located at 6N and 7,5S and are generating strong westerlies. It remains to see if they will evolve to a TD or TS.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fearth.nullschool.net%2F%23current%2Fwind%2Fsurface%2Flevel%2Forthographic%3D-265.58%2C-2.82%2C512%2Floc%3D84.622%2C0.566&hash=0674f392d3da856c772a26585331ae7f)

Best, LMV
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 14, 2016, 04:06:47 PM
The following is the Cyclocane report on these two Indian Ocean TDs:

North Indian Ocean
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 86.3E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 83.8E, APPROXIMATELY 257 NM SOUTHEAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ENHANCED BY A STRONG
WESTERLY SURGE ALONG THE EQUATOR. A 131147Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE BROAD LLCC WITH LIMITED CONVECTION.
THE DISTURBANCE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

South Indian Ocean
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1S 79.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.7S 82.9E, APPROXIMATELY 317 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
SHALLOW CONVECTION, EVIDENT ON THE 131106Z SSMIS F-16 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. RECENT MOSAIC ASCAT PASSES SHOW A WELL DEFINED BUT
BROAD LLCC WITH A STRONG 30 KNOT WESTERLY WIND BURST ALONG THE
EQUATOR THAT IS ENHANCING CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW
BUT HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 14, 2016, 04:49:50 PM
The first image shows the TAO 5-day Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom issued May 14 2016, showing that the thin warm surface layer in the Nino 3.4 region is being meaningfully degraded.

The second image shows the ECMM MJO forecast from May 14 to 28 2016; showing that the MJO is currently disruptive to El Nino conditions; but soon will be moving into the Maritime Continent.

On the face of this, it is possible that the weekly NOAA Nino 3.4 may fall into the neutral range before the end of May; but I will be interested in seeing whether the active phase of the MJO makes it to the Equatorial International Dateline towards the end of June with any strength.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 14, 2016, 09:45:07 PM
Mangroves die-off in Queensland's Gulf Country and Limmen Bight 'may be due to warmer oceans'
Quote
Experts have been focusing on hundreds of kilometres of mangroves along the coast of Karumba in Queensland's Gulf Country and at Limmen Bight in the Northern Territory that have turned a ghostly white.

"It appears to coincide with a period of hot water in the southern Gulf, but we need more evidence," Professor Norm Duke from Queensland's James Cook University said.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-10/mangroves-die-off-along-coast-of-qld-gulf-country-limmin-bight/7400626 (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-10/mangroves-die-off-along-coast-of-qld-gulf-country-limmin-bight/7400626)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 15, 2016, 03:21:51 AM
Per the attached plot, and following data, issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has move up to -11.8:

20160414,20160513,-11.8

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 15, 2016, 04:40:41 PM
The linked article discusses why NOAA forecasts a 75% chance for La Nina conditions by the Fall of 2016, which are primarily the extant cool deep water across the Eq Pac, statistics & dynamic models:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2016-el-ni%C3%B1ola-ni%C3%B1a-update-switcheroo (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2016-el-ni%C3%B1ola-ni%C3%B1a-update-switcheroo)


Extract: "In short, all La Niña events in our record have started within two years of an El Niño. (But not all El Niño events are followed by La Niña.) El Niño does not have a similar rule, as several of the 23 El Niños on record have started four or more years after the last La Niña.

La Niña events often last longer than El Niño events. Only once on record has El Niño lasted through two straight winters, 1986-1988, but it has happened with La Niña three times. The La Niña event that followed the 1997/98 El Niño lasted for thirty-three months, through three winters!"
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 15, 2016, 05:01:27 PM
The following is the latest Cyclocane forecast for the two TDs in the Indian Ocean:

"North Indian Ocean
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 83.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 83.9E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
140815Z ATMS NPP 88.2GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT ORGANIZED AND
ENHANCED FLARING CONVECTION ABOUT A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), EVIDENT ON MOST RECENT SCAT PASSES. THE
DISTURBANCE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT
SUPPORTED BY A POINT SOURCE NEARLY OVERHEAD, LOW TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

South Indian Ocean
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.7S 82.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2S 85.9E, APPROXIMATELY 736 NM NORTHWEST OF
COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DIMINISHED
FLARING CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD AND ELONGATED LLCC, EVIDENT ON A
PARTIAL RAPIDSCAT PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH VERY HIGH (20 TO 30
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW."

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 16, 2016, 03:20:36 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -11.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 16, 2016, 04:30:18 PM
Per the following data NOAA's Nino 3.4 for the week centered on May 11 2016 drifted down to +0.6; which was confirmed by the first attached image from the BoM showing the Nino 3.4 index for the week ending May 15 2016; while the second attached image shows that the IOD remained neutral for the same period.


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 06APR2016     27.1 1.3     28.8 1.4     28.9 1.3     29.3 0.9
 13APR2016     25.6 0.1     28.6 1.2     29.1 1.3     29.3 0.8
 20APR2016     24.7-0.6     28.0 0.6     28.9 1.1     29.4 0.8
 27APR2016     24.7-0.3     27.7 0.4     28.7 0.8     29.5 0.9
 04MAY2016     25.1 0.4     27.6 0.4     28.6 0.8     29.5 0.8
 11MAY2016     24.9 0.5     27.6 0.4     28.4 0.6     29.4 0.6

The third & fourth images were issued today by NOAA showing the Eq Pac Evolution for the SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively.  These indicate that our current weak El Nino event might say above the +0.5 threshold for a few more weeks, or alternatively, could drop down into the neutral range as early as next week.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 16, 2016, 04:34:59 PM
The four attached plots were issued today by the BoM for the week ending May 15 2016, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  They confirm that our current weak El Nino is gradually degrading:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 16, 2016, 04:43:09 PM
The first image shows NOAA Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom modeled values for May 8 2016, showing that the thin surface layer near the Nino 3.4 region is partially in the +0.5 to +1.0 range and is apparently degrading.

The second image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued today, indicating that the long awaited trough may be occurring now.

The third image shows the ECMM MJO forecast from May 15 to 29 2016; showing that the MJO is now disruptive to El Nino conditions.

The fourth image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from May 16 to 23 2016, showing that we are in a period of intensifying trade winds (which will continue to degrade the thin warm surface layer).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 16, 2016, 10:14:49 PM
The attached plot issued today by TAO shows the 5-day Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles.  These indicate that the Nino 3.4 index could become neutral next week.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Bruce Steele on May 17, 2016, 12:59:48 AM
PDO index is out for April.  2.62
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 17, 2016, 03:28:29 AM
PDO index is out for April.  2.62

Seems rather high to me, but I am not in a place where I can check the PDO records.

Separately, per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -9.7:

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 17, 2016, 04:10:06 AM
PDO index is out for April.  2.62

Seems rather high to me, but I am not in a place where I can check the PDO records.



When I scanned back through the record I only found four values that were higher and they all occurred from October 1955 to Feb 1956 in the following order: -2.80  -3.08  -2.75 -2.48  -2.74
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on May 17, 2016, 05:05:58 AM
Those PDO values were on the negative side ASLR, there are some even lower.

The following are the ones I found to be higher (and later):
1936 Nov 2.65
1941 Jun 3.01
1941 Aug 3.31
1983 Jul  3.51
1987 Aug 2.83
1993 Aug 2.69
1997 Jun 2.76
1997 Aug 2.79

So April 2016 is the earliest and highest April ever and we are now up to 28 consecutive months of positive values.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 18, 2016, 12:36:48 AM
Those PDO values were on the negative side ASLR, there are some even lower.

The following are the ones I found to be higher (and later):
1936 Nov 2.65
1941 Jun 3.01
1941 Aug 3.31
1983 Jul  3.51
1987 Aug 2.83
1993 Aug 2.69
1997 Jun 2.76
1997 Aug 2.79

So April 2016 is the earliest and highest April ever and we are now up to 28 consecutive months of positive values.

Thanks for the update & per the attached Tropical Tidbits SSTA plot for May 17 2016, it is easy to see why the PDO is so positive and why the current El Nino is degrading.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 18, 2016, 03:35:45 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -8.7:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 18, 2016, 05:48:36 PM
The first image shows NOAA Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued May 18 2016.
The second image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom issued May 18 2016.
Collectively, these two images indicate that the deep cool water is starting to dissipate together with the think warm surface layer.  It will be interesting to see if we have a soft landing into neutral conditions and avoid La Nina conditions later this year.

The third image shows the NCPE MJO forecast from May 18 to June 1 2016, showing that the active phase of the MJO has moved into the Maritime Continent, and if forecast to weaken rapidly in about a weeks time.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 18, 2016, 06:04:06 PM
Per Cyclocane TC 01B has now formed in the North Indian Ocean, and per the attached image is now dropping some rainfall on Southeastern India:


 NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 180600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.2N 81.5E, APPROXIMATELY 84 NM NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, AND
HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 180900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 18, 2016, 08:44:21 PM
A look back at what has happened in the past when a La Niña followed a strong El Niño.

El Niño to La Niña years
http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2016/05/el-nino-to-la-nina-years.html (http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2016/05/el-nino-to-la-nina-years.html)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 19, 2016, 03:23:57 AM
Per the following data and attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average has moved down to -9.3:

20160418,20160517,-9.3
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on May 19, 2016, 05:39:43 AM
The first image shows NOAA Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued May 18 2016.
The second image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom issued May 18 2016.
Collectively, these two images indicate that the deep cool water is starting to dissipate together with the think warm surface layer.  It will be interesting to see if we have a soft landing into neutral conditions and avoid La Nina conditions later this year.

The third image shows the NCPE MJO forecast from May 18 to June 1 2016, showing that the active phase of the MJO has moved into the Maritime Continent, and if forecast to weaken rapidly in about a weeks time.
Adding graphics provided by BoM for the vertical temperature anomaly sections at the equator, also indicating that those colder subsurface temperature anomalies are dissipating.
Those anomalies are also shallower when comparing to previous events. In May 1998 the deepest colder anomalies were somewhere between 250-300m at 150E. Now above 250m, and thinning.

Edit; adding May 1998 for reference.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on May 19, 2016, 09:39:26 AM
A summary at Wunderground by Jeff Masters and Bob Henson, of our present global disaster.
April 2016: Earth's 12th Consecutive Warmest Month on Record.
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/april-2016-earths-12th-consecutive-warmest-month-on-record (https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/april-2016-earths-12th-consecutive-warmest-month-on-record)
I'll settle with just a couple of small quotes.
First around global temperature in 2016, considering ENSO and a comparison with 1998:
The drop from Jan-Apr to May-Dec would need to be twice as large this year as it was in 1998 in order to put this year’s annual average below that of 2015.
Second quote about estimated costs:
Between January - April 2016, there were twelve billion-dollar weather disasters.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 19, 2016, 06:08:12 PM
Will our thin warm layer survive this week wrt these strong easterlies? Doubtful! Negative anomalies seems to increase in EPAC while the positive anomalies are increasing at depth in WPAC. MJO is scheduled to weaken during the next couple of days.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.atmos.albany.edu%2Fstudent%2Fventrice%2Freal_time%2FtimeLon%2Fu.anom.30.5S-5N.gif&hash=4e02dc49a12de3548e6a8589ce630eed)

Longpaddock produced two days now with low values.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 19, 2016, 06:26:15 PM
Will our thin warm layer survive this week wrt these strong easterlies? Doubtful! Negative anomalies seems to increase in EPAC while the positive anomalies are increasing at depth in WPAC. MJO is scheduled to weaken during the next couple of days.

There is no doubt that the current El Nino will end shortly; however, the real question is whether we will experience neutral conditions later this year as occurred in 1983, or La Nina conditions as occurred in 1998.  Your U of Albany plot shows that the increase in the trade winds should end by about May 24 2016 and seems to be followed by more westerly conditions.  Furthermore, the attached TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued May 19 2016, show that the cool deep layer continues to dissipate, while the warm thin surface layer persists.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 20, 2016, 03:25:27 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -8.3:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on May 20, 2016, 07:35:51 AM
Will our thin warm layer survive this week wrt these strong easterlies? Doubtful! Negative anomalies seems to increase in EPAC while the positive anomalies are increasing at depth in WPAC. MJO is scheduled to weaken during the next couple of days.

There is no doubt that the current El Nino will end shortly; however, the real question is whether we will experience neutral conditions later this year as occurred in 1983, or La Nina conditions as occurred in 1998.  Your U of Albany plot shows that the increase in the trade winds should end by about May 24 2016 and seems to be followed by more westerly conditions.  Furthermore, the attached TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued May 19 2016, show that the cool deep layer continues to dissipate, while the warm thin surface layer persists.
A follow up like in 1983 is what comes to my mind first. At present I'm stupid enough to gamble for a follow up like between -83 and -92.

One key is of course atmospheric coupling, the red line through this event (since 2014) has been that wind stress forcing has not been behaving as expected. In 2014 it stopped the expected El Nino and there is a good previous comparison to 2014, and that is 1990... During 2015 it wasn't that strong, compared to earlier very strong events. And if forcing fails from now on, we will have a La Nada.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 20, 2016, 05:17:25 PM
India has just eclipsed a heat record that was set in 1886.  This heat wave is currently leading to hundreds if not thousands of deaths, and if the monsoon rains do not come in mid-June, many more people will die from drought:

http://mashable.com/2016/05/19/india-hottest-temperature-record/#Z9noRb4E8Gqw (http://mashable.com/2016/05/19/india-hottest-temperature-record/#Z9noRb4E8Gqw)

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 21, 2016, 03:34:46 AM
Per the following data, and attached plot, issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -8.0:

20160420,20160519,-8.0

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 21, 2016, 06:40:33 PM
The APs lead story for May 20 2016, was the continuing crippling drought in India, where 60% of population works in agriculture and less than half the farmland is irrigated.  If for some reason the monsoons do not start on time by mid-June, we could see a human disaster in the making:

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/f906a3717f1c4fae883593fc7f46babe/crippling-drought-central-india-leaves-millions-brink (http://bigstory.ap.org/article/f906a3717f1c4fae883593fc7f46babe/crippling-drought-central-india-leaves-millions-brink)

Extract: "Monsoon showers, which normally run from June to September, are crucial in a country where 60 percent of the population works in agriculture and less than half the farmland is irrigated."

See also:
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/05/20/wet-bulb-near-35-c-heatwave-mass-casualties-strike-india-amidst-never-before-seen-high-temperatures/ (https://robertscribbler.com/2016/05/20/wet-bulb-near-35-c-heatwave-mass-casualties-strike-india-amidst-never-before-seen-high-temperatures/)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 21, 2016, 09:36:37 PM
Quote
Mark McCarthy:  If we switch to la nina I wonder how many past el ninos it will be warmer than.
https://twitter.com/markpmcc/status/734049125231169536
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 22, 2016, 11:30:27 AM
Per the attached plot issued by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -5.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 23, 2016, 12:01:52 AM
Per the linked Wikipedia article, most Pacific tropical cyclones develop between May and October.  Therefore, it will be interesting to see whether any Western Pacific tropical cyclones/typhoons generate WWB activity in June to push eastward the thin warm surface layer shown in the attached TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom issued May 22 2016:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Pacific_typhoon_season

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 23, 2016, 03:24:32 AM
Per the following data and the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -4.5:

20160422,20160521,-4.5
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 23, 2016, 05:30:46 PM
Per the following weekly NOAA data for the week centered on May 18 2016, the recent high trade winds shown in the first image of the UatA 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from May 23 to 30 2016, has indeed taken the weekly Nino 3.4 into the neutral range at Nino 3.4 = 0.2.  However, note that the first image also indicates that period of high trade winds is now over.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 20APR2016     24.7-0.6     28.0 0.6     28.9 1.1     29.4 0.8
 27APR2016     24.7-0.3     27.7 0.4     28.7 0.8     29.5 0.9
 04MAY2016     25.1 0.4     27.6 0.4     28.6 0.8     29.5 0.8
 11MAY2016     24.9 0.5     27.6 0.4     28.4 0.6     29.4 0.6
 18MAY2016     24.3 0.2     26.9-0.1     28.1 0.2     29.4 0.6

The second and third images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending May 22 2016, with the second image showing that the weekly Nino 3.4 is now +0.25; and the third image showing that the IOD is now neutral but negative.

The fourth image shows the NOAA Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued May 23 2016, showing that this value is still slowly becoming more negative.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 23, 2016, 05:34:29 PM
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending May 22 2016, for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Showing that on a weekly basis (but not on an official basis, and the Nino 4 index is still in the El Nino range) we are now essentially in a ENSO neutral condition.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 23, 2016, 05:41:02 PM
The first two images were issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac Evolution, with the first image showing the SSTA, and the second showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom.  These images support that idea that we are transitioning to neutral conditions.

The third NOAA image as issued today shows the corrected CFSv2 Nino 3.4 forecast indicating that on a weekly basis we may not transition into weak La Nina conditions until August (if then) and that on an ONI basis it is still uncertain whether 2016 will develop official La Nina conditions.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 24, 2016, 03:25:40 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -2.6:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on May 24, 2016, 05:32:19 AM
Regarding the weekly NOAA data. Trying to determine a La Nina, the Nino4 region is the key for shifting deep convection patterns westwards, and it's still at +0.6°C.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on May 24, 2016, 06:54:48 PM
Quoting a part of the ENSO wrap-up from BoM today.
Quote
The tropical Pacific Ocean has returned to a neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific have cooled to neutral levels over the past fortnight, supported by much cooler-than-average waters beneath the surface. In the atmosphere, indicators such as the trade winds, cloudiness near the Date Line, and the Southern Oscillation Index have also returned to neutral levels. Outlooks suggest little chance of returning to El Niño levels, in which case mid-May will mark the end of the 2015–16 El Niño. 

International climate models indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool, with six of eight models suggesting La Niña is likely to form during the austral winter (June–August). However, individual model outlooks show a large spread between neutral and La Niña scenarios.

Changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, combined with current climate model outlooks, suggest the likelihood of La Niña forming later in 2016 is around 50%, meaning the Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at La Niña WATCH.
Also adding their model run from the 22:nd.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 25, 2016, 03:27:27 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -3.3:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 26, 2016, 03:24:51 AM
Per the following data and attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -2.2:

20160425,20160524,-2.2
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 27, 2016, 03:30:53 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -0.5
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 27, 2016, 05:30:06 PM
Regarding the weekly NOAA data. Trying to determine a La Nina, the Nino4 region is the key for shifting deep convection patterns westwards, and it's still at +0.6°C.

The attached TAO 5-day Eq Pac Subsurface Temp and Temp Anom profiles thru May 26 2016, reaffirms Sleepy's point that the Nino 4 surface temps are remaining stable.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 27, 2016, 07:52:39 PM
FWIW, seems like the trades are going to be more normal for the next week or so in the Eastern Pacific and maybe also later in the western Pacific too by U Albany: (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmikeventrice.weebly.com%2Fhovmollers.html&hash=27999cd085a2f994b79a531da7a13637)

Best, LMV
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 28, 2016, 03:24:41 AM
Per the following data and the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up into the positive range and is now +0.6:

20160427,20160526,0.6
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on May 28, 2016, 06:24:57 AM
The SOI 90-day average is now also increasing.

CDAS presented by Levi Cowan. In the order I like to look at them right now.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 29, 2016, 03:26:22 AM
Per the following data, and attached image, both issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +0.7:

20160428,20160527,0.7
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 30, 2016, 05:48:35 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average has drifted up to +0.9
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 31, 2016, 03:32:44 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +1.9:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 31, 2016, 05:03:58 PM
If you've just joined us, here's an explainer on the meaning of SOI, courtesy of NOAA.  ;)

Quote
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a standardized index based on the observed sea level pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. The SOI is one measure of the large-scale fluctuations in air pressure occurring between the western and eastern tropical Pacific (i.e., the state of the Southern Oscillation) during El Niño and La Niña episodes. In general, smoothed time series of the SOI correspond very well with changes in ocean temperatures across the eastern tropical Pacific. The negative phase of the SOI represents below-normal air pressure at Tahiti and above-normal air pressure at Darwin. Prolonged periods of negative (positive) SOI values coincide with abnormally warm (cold) ocean waters across the eastern tropical Pacific typical of El Niño (La Niña) episodes. The methodology used to calculate SOI is available below. More information can be found at the Climate Prediction Center SOI page.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/soi/ (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/soi/)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 31, 2016, 05:36:54 PM
Per the following NOAA data through the middle of the week for May 25 2016, the Nino 3.4 index has dropped down to -0.1C.  I note that at this critical time in the Arctic that if the Nino 3.4 drops below -0.5C that this could accelerate the advection of warm atmospheric winds from the south into the Arctic Basin, which (if it were to occur) could accelerate Arctic Amplification this summer:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 13APR2016     25.6 0.1     28.6 1.2     29.1 1.3     29.3 0.8
 20APR2016     24.7-0.6     28.0 0.6     28.9 1.1     29.4 0.8
 27APR2016     24.7-0.3     27.7 0.4     28.7 0.8     29.5 0.9
 04MAY2016     25.1 0.4     27.6 0.4     28.6 0.8     29.5 0.8
 11MAY2016     24.9 0.5     27.6 0.4     28.4 0.6     29.4 0.6
 18MAY2016     24.3 0.2     26.9-0.1     28.1 0.2     29.4 0.6
 25MAY2016     24.0 0.2     26.6-0.3     27.7-0.1     29.4 0.6

Separately, the first two images were issued on May 30 2016, by NOAA for the Eq Pac for the SSTA, and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, Evolutions, respectively.  These indicate that we are in a period of transition.

The last two images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending May 29 2016, with the third image showing the Nino 3.4 and the fourth showing the IOD.  Again, both plots show that we are in a period of transition.

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 31, 2016, 05:42:26 PM
The four attached images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending May 29 2016, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 and 4 indices, respectively.  These plots show that the Eastern Tropical Pacific is transitioning earlier than the Western Tropical Pacific, as indicated by the fact that the Nino 4 index remains relatively high at +0.57C (which is close to NOAA's value of +0.6C).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 31, 2016, 06:00:34 PM
ASLR & Co latest analysis from Ventrice/U Albany indicates a possible WWB developing around 120oW. In addition, the trades seems to be fairly normal or even weak positive in most of the Pacific basin with start from June 2. This WWB would if materialized be just right over the cold pool water.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.atmos.albany.edu%2Fstudent%2Fventrice%2Freal_time%2FtimeLon%2Fu.anom.30.5S-5N.gif&hash=4e02dc49a12de3548e6a8589ce630eed)

Best, LMV
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 31, 2016, 07:18:18 PM
ASLR & Co latest analysis from Ventrice/U Albany indicates a possible WWB developing around 120oW. In addition, the trades seems to be fairly normal or even weak positive in most of the Pacific basin with start from June 2. This WWB would if materialized be just right over the cold pool water.
Best, LMV

LMV,
First, I provide the attached TAO Eq Pac 5-day Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued May 31 2016; which can be compared with the situation showing in Reply #672 for the same profiles issued May 26 2016.  Comparing this two plots it can be observed that while the deep cool water pool has not changed very much the thin warm layer in the Nino 4 region has become more robust.  Thus while it is probable that the June 2 WWB near 120oW, that you point to, may cause some upwelling of the deep cold water pool, it is most likely that any such upwelling of cold water will primarily impact the Nino 1, 2 & 3 regions with less impact on the Nino 3.4 region and almost no impact on the newly robust Nino 4 region.

While it is most likely that we are headed for a weak La Nina, an official-NOAA-ONI La Nina requires eight months with the Nino 3.4 below -0.5C; while the linked NOAA CFSv2 uncorrected Nino 3.4 forecast has the Nino 3.4 falling below -0.5C in mid-June and apparently headed above -0.5C by mid-January 2017; which means that officially we me be headed for a negative but neutral ENSO condition.  However, as a worse case scenario, I noted in the IJIS thread that if the Nino 3.4 falls below -0.5C by mid-June this should theoretically promote the advection of warm southerly winds northward into the Arctic Basin beginning in early to mid-June; which would promote sea ice extent loss; and then if WWB west of 180o were to occur by late July or August, then the warm surface layer in the Nino 4 region could move the Nino 3.4 back into the positive range; which could cause GMST departures to remain very high in 2016, leading to both high Arctic Amplification and high global warming.  We will all know in a few months whether such a worse case scenario actually develops.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 01, 2016, 04:22:44 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +2.8:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 02, 2016, 03:24:01 AM
Per the following data, and attached plot, both issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +2.8:

20160502,20160531,2.8

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 02, 2016, 07:06:47 PM
The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued on June 2 2016, showing that the cool subsurface waters are beginning to upwell in the Nino 3 range.

The second image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from June 2 to 9 2016; indicating that westerly wind anomalies should promote further upwelling of cool subsurface waters in the Nino 3, and the eastern portions of the Nino 3.4, regions while working to sustain the warm surface layer in the western portions of the Nino 3.4, and in the Nino 4, regions.

Such conditions promote both the likelihood of accelerating Arctic Amplification and for weak La Nina like conditions through at least the early summer of 2016.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 03, 2016, 03:30:02 AM
Per the following data, and attached plot, both issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +3.0:

20160503,20160601,3.0
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 03, 2016, 05:59:31 AM
Adding the 4-month sequence of vertical temperature anomaly sections at the equator, Pacific for June 2016 by BoM. Ananlysis from Jun 2. Indicating a diminishing cold pool.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 03, 2016, 06:17:10 PM
Adding the 4-month sequence of vertical temperature anomaly sections at the equator, Pacific for June 2016 by BoM. Ananlysis from Jun 2. Indicating a diminishing cold pool.

While it is an excellent point that the deep cold pool has been diminishing for months, your images also so that the warm surface layer has also been diminishing (as supported by the first attached image of the Tropical Tidbit's daily Nino 3.4 index issued June 3 2016, which is now negative); and per the second attached image of NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom (issued June 3 2016) the impact of the loss of the warm surface layer has been greater on net Upper Ocean Heat than the loss of the deeper cold pool; while now we may have finally reached a trough in the Upper Ocean Heat Anom.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 04, 2016, 03:27:10 AM
Per the following data, and attached plot, both issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average has drifted up to +3.1:

20160504,20160602,3.1
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 04, 2016, 06:28:33 AM
Adding the 4-month sequence of vertical temperature anomaly sections at the equator, Pacific for June 2016 by BoM. Ananlysis from Jun 2. Indicating a diminishing cold pool.

While it is an excellent point that the deep cold pool has been diminishing for months, your images also so that the warm surface layer has also been diminishing (as supported by the first attached image of the Tropical Tidbit's daily Nino 3.4 index issued June 3 2016, which is now negative); and per the second attached image of NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom (issued June 3 2016) the impact of the loss of the warm surface layer has been greater on net Upper Ocean Heat than the loss of the deeper cold pool; while now we may have finally reached a trough in the Upper Ocean Heat Anom.
Yes, and what I'm thinking about is how large that trough really is since the OISST values that the models are fed with are interpolated. I should have pointed out that my comment was a follow up to my Reply #650. Not only trying to keep a comparison to 98 in mind but also comparing the June analysis by BoM to their previous from May. Hopefully better displayed in the attached picture.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 05, 2016, 03:29:46 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to +2.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 06, 2016, 03:27:19 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to +1.7:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 06, 2016, 04:54:58 PM
First, per the follow weekly NOAA values, the Nino 3.4 value for the week centered on June 1 2016 drifted down to -0.2:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 18MAY2016     24.3 0.2     26.9-0.1     28.1 0.2     29.4 0.6
 25MAY2016     24.0 0.2     26.6-0.3     27.7-0.1     29.4 0.6
 01JUN2016     23.4 0.0     26.4-0.3     27.6-0.2     29.3 0.5

The first two images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending June 5 2016, showing that the Nino 3.4 is still positive while the IOD has become more negative, respectively.

The last two images were issued today by NOAA showing the Eq Pac Evolutions for the SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 06, 2016, 06:08:44 PM
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending June 5 2016 showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 06, 2016, 06:20:35 PM
The first image issued by NOAA today shows that the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom is now increasing (becoming less negative).

The second image issued today by TAO shows the Eq Pac Subsurface 5-day Temp & Temp Anom profiles, showing the zone where the cool deep water is slowly upwelling and the zones where the warm surface water is becoming stronger.

The third image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from June 6 to 13 2016, indicating that the forecasted WWB near 120W is strengthening.

The fourth images shows that the MAM ONI is 1.1C.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on June 06, 2016, 10:34:31 PM
Latest NMME forecast for the Niño 3.4 index:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fi6SCByR.gif&hash=86ba4a114954cb596395dab81c1b394b)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/plume.html (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/plume.html)


Below is an animation of the NMME forecast (ensemble mean) for the next months.  The first frame of the animation is for July 2016 and the last frame is for January 2017:


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FySjSIZm.gif&hash=c4f3259d7e1420fb9a510394bdf3beab)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 07, 2016, 03:26:38 AM
Per the following data, and attached image, both issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +0.3:

20160507,20160605,0.3
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 07, 2016, 05:36:32 AM
Shifting El Niño inhibits summer Arctic warming and Arctic sea-ice melting over the Canada Basin.
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160602/ncomms11721/full/ncomms11721.html (http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160602/ncomms11721/full/ncomms11721.html)
Quote
Arctic climate changes include not only changes in trends and mean states but also strong interannual variations in various fields. Although it is known that tropical-extratropical teleconnection is sensitive to changes in flavours of El Niño, whether Arctic climate variability is linked to El Niño, in particular on interannual timescale, remains unclear. Here we demonstrate for the first time a long-range linkage between central Pacific (CP) El Niño and summer Arctic climate. Observations show that the CP warming related to CP El Niño events deepens the tropospheric Arctic polar vortex and strengthens the circumpolar westerly wind, thereby contributing to inhibiting summer Arctic warming and sea-ice melting. Atmospheric model experiments can generally capture the observed responses of Arctic circulation and robust surface cooling to CP El Niño forcing. We suggest that identification of the equator-Arctic teleconnection, via the ‘atmospheric bridge’, can potentially contribute to improving the skill of predicting Arctic climate.
Also attaching fig 4: Case verifications in JJA of 2014 and 2015.
Original size here: http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160602/ncomms11721/fig_tab/ncomms11721_F4.html (http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160602/ncomms11721/fig_tab/ncomms11721_F4.html)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 08, 2016, 03:39:17 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -1.2:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 08, 2016, 08:46:25 AM
BoMs update yesterday wasn't exciting, everything's pretty much in neutral, OLR as well. Their latest subsurface analysis showed a bit more elongated and slightly strengthened pool of negative anomalies than their analysis from June 2:nd. But also some tiny positive surface anomalies.

Made a couple of animations of the NCEP RTG_SST_HR anomalies from June 1-7. First the globe and second, the area between 160W-95W and 25S-20N. The area around the dateline shows increases together with the area around Berings Strait. Also along the entire US west coast and the area just north of the equator. We only have three weeks left of June, while watching a shallow cold pool and increasing surface anomalies.

Click to animate. There are 2s delays on the first and last images in the animation, the rest is 1s.
Edit; deleted the second animation instead of lowering the resolution, it didn't work after upload.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 09, 2016, 03:25:07 AM
Per the following data, and attached plot, both issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -1.8:

20160509,20160607,-1.8
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Michael Hauber on June 09, 2016, 05:21:08 AM
Shifting El Niño inhibits summer Arctic warming and Arctic sea-ice melting over the Canada Basin.
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160602/ncomms11721/full/ncomms11721.html (http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160602/ncomms11721/full/ncomms11721.html)


Interesting.

A Central Pacific el nino leads to increased sea ice during summer.  But an east Pacific el nino has no effect.  As the effect is deduced by correlation between the CP index and values such as temperature, SST and ice concentration in the Arctic, it seems that the reverse should hold and that a Central Pacific La Nina would lead to reduced ice.

The central pacific index they use is a box located much further west, and includes a much wider north to south slice than the traditional nino 3.4 index, and would be closer to the nino 4 index.  Current cooling is mainly in the east and only quite close to the equator, and models do not suggest this will change in a hurry.  This index would almost certainly be significantly positive and could easily remain positive throughout the current NH summer.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 09, 2016, 09:25:31 AM
Michael, I thought so too. It's at least something to keep an eye on. The 925mb temps have been noted to differ in the past and this might be the cause. There were a small discussion in the IJIS thread a couple of weeks back, so I posted it here since speculations about ENSO correlations to the arctic sea ice demise was considered OT there.

Adding fig 5 & 17 from the study as well.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 09, 2016, 09:44:59 AM
Another oscillation connected to both ENSO and the arctic, is the QBO. Adding this study from last year on how QBO would affect the subtropical jet and the NAO in combination with a La Nina.
Tropospheric QBO–ENSO Interactions and Differences between the Atlantic and Pacific.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0164.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0164.1)
Quote
This study investigates the interaction of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the troposphere separately for the North Pacific and North Atlantic region. Three 145-yr model simulations with NCAR’s Community Earth System Model Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM-WACCM) are analyzed where only natural (no anthropogenic) forcings are considered. These long simulations allow the authors to obtain statistically reliable results from an exceptional large number of cases for each combination of the QBO (westerly and easterly) and ENSO phases (El Niño and La Niña). Two different analysis methods were applied to investigate where nonlinearity might play a role in QBO–ENSO interactions. The analyses reveal that the stratospheric equatorial QBO anomalies extend down to the troposphere over the North Pacific during Northern Hemisphere winter only during La Niña and not during El Niño events. The Aleutian low is deepened during QBO westerly (QBOW) as compared to QBO easterly (QBOE) conditions, and the North Pacific subtropical jet is shifted northward during La Niña. In the North Atlantic, the interaction of QBOW with La Niña conditions (QBOE with El Niño) results in a positive (negative) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. For both regions, nonlinear interactions between the QBO and ENSO might play a role. The results provide the potential to enhance the skill of tropospheric seasonal predictions in the North Atlantic and North Pacific region.
My bold.
At present we are having a La Nada regarding both ENSO and QBO. Looking at the graph at fu-berlin the transition this year resembles no previous year on record. I don't like that.
http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/ (http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on June 09, 2016, 06:49:53 PM
During the last 10 days, there have been considerable differences in the Pacific subsurface waters which the two attached images from TAO/TRITON shows:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pmel.noaa.gov%2Fcache-tao%2Fsb1%2Fjsdisplay%2Fdep_lon_20160527_EQ_0_300_t_hf_2016060909.gif&hash=d7d8a9a2b997c501f7c652f9a98aa015)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pmel.noaa.gov%2Fcache-tao%2Fsy1%2Fjsdisplay%2Fdep_lon_20160606_EQ_0_300_t_hf_2016060909.gif&hash=0f49ca9314d97beb20b3a7f3cde9ff81)

As can be seen, the warm pocket in Western Pacific has increased and the cold pocket in the Eastern Pacific has shrunk. Some upwelling of cold water is still present around 125-130W.

Best, LMV
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 09, 2016, 07:01:16 PM
Western Pacific hydroclimate linked to global climate variability over the past two millennia
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160608/ncomms11719/full/ncomms11719.html (http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160608/ncomms11719/full/ncomms11719.html)
Quote
Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature, yet the extent to which these phenomena influence global climate on multicentury timescales is still poorly known. Here we present a 2,000-year, multiproxy reconstruction of western Pacific hydroclimate from two speleothem records for southeastern Indonesia. The composite record shows pronounced shifts in monsoon rainfall that are antiphased with precipitation records for East Asia and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. These meridional and zonal patterns are best explained by a poleward expansion of the Australasian Intertropical Convergence Zone and weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) between ~1000 and 1500 CE Conversely, an equatorward contraction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and strengthened PWC occurred between ~1500 and 1900 CE. Our findings, together with climate model simulations, highlight the likelihood that century-scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.
My bold.

Fig5 attached.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 09, 2016, 07:42:29 PM
Western Pacific hydroclimate linked to global climate variability over the past two millennia
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160608/ncomms11719/full/ncomms11719.html (http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160608/ncomms11719/full/ncomms11719.html)
Quote
Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature, yet the extent to which these phenomena influence global climate on multicentury timescales is still poorly known. Here we present a 2,000-year, multiproxy reconstruction of western Pacific hydroclimate from two speleothem records for southeastern Indonesia. The composite record shows pronounced shifts in monsoon rainfall that are antiphased with precipitation records for East Asia and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. These meridional and zonal patterns are best explained by a poleward expansion of the Australasian Intertropical Convergence Zone and weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) between ~1000 and 1500 CE Conversely, an equatorward contraction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and strengthened PWC occurred between ~1500 and 1900 CE. Our findings, together with climate model simulations, highlight the likelihood that century-scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.
My bold.

Sleepy,

Thanks for the recent series of posts on the influence of the Tropical Pacific on both Arctic Amplification and GMST departures.  It is clear to me that the Tropical Pacific can act as a chaotic strange attractor to amplify otherwise relatively weak radiative forcing inputs, and your last post of Fig. 5 indicates that we are now entering a phase of the century-scale variations in which Tropical Pacific modes naturally promote more strong El Ninos, which must then be added to the influences of anthropogenic forcing.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 09, 2016, 09:47:19 PM
El Niño is dead, leaving behind legacy of a heated planet, devastated corals and monster storms
Quote
“We’re sticking a fork in this El Niño and calling it done,” writes NOAA climate analyst Emily Becker on its El Niño blog.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/06/09/el-nino-is-dead-leaving-behind-legacy-of-a-heated-planet-devastated-corals-and-monster-storms/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/06/09/el-nino-is-dead-leaving-behind-legacy-of-a-heated-planet-devastated-corals-and-monster-storms/)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 10, 2016, 03:24:58 AM
Per the following data, and associate plot, both issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -0.1:

20160510,20160608,-0.1
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 10, 2016, 06:26:19 AM
As a follow up to my comments around the subsurface cold pool in #691 & #701 I made an animation of the latest updates by BoM. The dates are May16, June02, June06 & June09.
2s delays on first and last frames, 1s on the middle ones.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 10, 2016, 08:44:53 AM
Western Pacific hydroclimate linked to global climate variability over the past two millennia
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160608/ncomms11719/full/ncomms11719.html (http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160608/ncomms11719/full/ncomms11719.html)
Quote
Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature, yet the extent to which these phenomena influence global climate on multicentury timescales is still poorly known. Here we present a 2,000-year, multiproxy reconstruction of western Pacific hydroclimate from two speleothem records for southeastern Indonesia. The composite record shows pronounced shifts in monsoon rainfall that are antiphased with precipitation records for East Asia and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. These meridional and zonal patterns are best explained by a poleward expansion of the Australasian Intertropical Convergence Zone and weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) between ~1000 and 1500 CE Conversely, an equatorward contraction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and strengthened PWC occurred between ~1500 and 1900 CE. Our findings, together with climate model simulations, highlight the likelihood that century-scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.
My bold.

Sleepy,

Thanks for the recent series of posts on the influence of the Tropical Pacific on both Arctic Amplification and GMST departures.  It is clear to me that the Tropical Pacific can act as a chaotic strange attractor to amplify otherwise relatively weak radiative forcing inputs, and your last post of Fig. 5 indicates that we are now entering a phase of the century-scale variations in which Tropical Pacific modes naturally promote more strong El Ninos, which must then be added to the influences of anthropogenic forcing.

Thanks ASLR and yes, unfortunately. First we have ENSO, the largest signal in the interannual variation of the atmosphere-ocean system, then add the positive decadal variation we seem to be entering right now and then add this, a century-scale variation. :(

Eyeballing other atmospheric oscillations and the arctic sea ice, I don't really see many resemblances in indices to years like 2007 & 2012 so the badly shaped ice might survive this year as well. There's still much to do for those who work with this though, using the QBO as an example, it is still not incorporated in most models as far as I know. Also add the issues the models still have with forecasts over the arctic. So maybe 2017 for the anticipated new record drop.

Regarding the other study posted in #699, following Wipneus updates to his home brew thread is a must right now, while keeping an eye on temperatures around the nino4 region.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 11, 2016, 03:34:19 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +0.8:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 11, 2016, 06:19:35 AM
Same animation as in #701 above but now June1-10. Hopefully this will work since it's just shy of 2MB. One of many "things" to follow, is the Nino3 area.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 11, 2016, 08:16:11 PM
In the linked article Scribbler notes that India's monsoon is delayed for the third year in a row (see the first attached image), and that climate change is the likely cause.  However, I note that it is human subjectivity, and not science, that makes us evaluate the impacts of climate change separately from ENSO impacts, and I note that while the media (& Scribbler) believe that La Nina is beginning to bloom, the second image of the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued June 11 2016, indicate that the recent upwelling of cool deep water in the Nino 3, & eastern Nino 3.4, regions is now subsiding and the cool deep pool of water is dissipating (see the third attached image); it appear more likely that we are headed towards La Nada (neutral) conditions rather than La Nina conditions (as Sleepy has already pointed out):

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/06/10/indias-monsoon-is-delayed-for-the-third-year-in-a-row-climate-change-is-likely-cause/

Extract: "The reduction in India’s monsoon rains is a big deal. It generates systemic drought, creates a prevalence for heatwaves, and locally amplifies the impacts of human-caused climate change. For three years now, the Indian monsoon has been delayed. India is experiencing its worst heatwaves ever recorded and water shortages across the country are growing dire. The monsoonal rains are coming, again late. And people across India — residents as well as weather and climate experts — are beginning to wonder if the endemic drought and heat stress will ever end.

Historically, there was only one climate condition known to bring about a delay in India’s Monsoon — El Nino. And last year, a strong El Nino is thought to have contributed both to the Monsoon’s late arrival and to a very severe drought that is now gripping the state. What the 2015 El Nino cannot also account for is the 2014 delay and weakening of monsoonal rains. And during 2016, as India’s monsoon has again been held back by 1-2 weeks, and El Nino is now but a memory, it’s beginning to become quite clear that there’s something else involved in the weakening of India’s annual rains.

Delays in the Indian Monsoon result in a loss of precipitation due to the fact that the duration of the event is greatly reduced. Rainfall has to therefore be more intense over a shorter period of time in order to make up for losses. Increasing drought prevalence results in further moisture losses due to a kind of atmospheric heat and dryness barrier that tends to sap storms of precipitation even as they start to form. The net result for India is a prediction of severe moisture loss due to human-caused climate change.

This year’s India monsoonal delay — as with the delay during 2014 — falls into that pattern. And the massive drought that India is now experiencing as a result appears to be emerging from a set of atmospheric conditions that are consistent with human-caused climate change. India’s risk for continued drought and increasingly extreme heatwaves over the coming years is therefore on the rise. And it is yet to be seen if this year’s monsoon will deliver the hoped-for and desperately-needed relief. Already, the rain-bearing storm system is lagging. And that’s not a good sign."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 12, 2016, 03:26:25 AM
Per the following data, and associated plot, both issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +1.8:

20160512,20160610,1.8
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 12, 2016, 09:32:18 AM
Connecting to what ASLR wrote above regarding human subjectivity, I would like to use an analogy from chess. A novice can beat an expert, but will never beat a grand master. Apart from spectators like myself, there are a lot of novices, then a large number of experts, but also a few grand masters in climate science. One of the latter is Syukuro Manabe who started using computers and models in the 60's. In the 80's he said that warming will be greatest at the north pole, during winter. This is now a fact. In the 90's he concluded that part of the warming trend in the pacific may be attributed to sustained thermal forcing. This is now a fact. The models he used back then indicated that the SST gradient along the equator slackened together with the easterlies, and this would result in an El Nino-like pattern of changes. This is still not a fact(?).

This event has showed a weak annual cycle (regarding coupling) and a strong ENSO regime. The PDO has been positive for 29 consecutive months now (May +2.35). We are consistently breaking greenhouse gas records and one can go on forever about feedbacks.
Still, a lot of people and media have for a very long time now been speculating about how strong the following La Nina will be. Very little about; what if we do not see a La Nina at all or just a quick dip into La Nina territory? What if we are entering a new era with this event? We can't bargain with the ocean.

But sure, this might still develop into a La Nina and the experts are still expecting a 50-75% possibility for that.

Man made climate change can't be separated from ENSO, neither can the Arctic sea ice.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Gray-Wolf on June 12, 2016, 12:12:03 PM
I'm also  little 'ticked off' by the number of folk who expect the Nina to 'balance out' the Nino impacts? I ,for the life of me, cannot see how they arrive at this conclusion?
We may well slip into Nina but the past Nino took a long time to arrive and sat a long while ast near Nino temps. The forecast Nina does appear to slip below Nina temps but do they stay there long enough for Nina to be called?

Anyhoo's I do not think Nina will dent global temps to the same extent as we saw temps rise whilst under Nino conditions.... those temp gains were not Nino alone but general warmth around the planet ( esp. the Oceans).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 12, 2016, 05:32:27 PM
From an AGW point of view it really doesn't matter if we have La Nina or El Nino now. With ~90% of the energy going into the ocean the heat will come back to haunt us soon anyway. The ocean will always win.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Gray-Wolf on June 12, 2016, 06:02:53 PM
I'm still not convinced we will see Nina? I think the wider ocean warmth will over ride it and looking at the sst's plot either side of the cold plume???
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 12, 2016, 11:22:34 PM
I'm still not convinced we will see Nina? I think the wider ocean warmth will over ride it and looking at the sst's plot either side of the cold plume???

Gray-Wolf,

I concur that based on current trends the chances of a La Nina event this year appear to be diminishing.  In this regards:
(a) The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued June 12 2016; indicating that both the upwelling of cool deep water to the surface in the Nino 3 & 3.4 regions is continuing to diminish rapidly; while the cool pool of deep water is also diminishing relatively rapidly.
(b) The second image shows both the CDAS SSTA (upper panel) and 7-day change in SSTA (lower panel) for June 12 2016; indicating (as you point-out) that the warm surface waters on either side of the equator appear to be moving towards the equator in both the Nino 3 & 3.4 regions (probably associate with the reduction in upwelling cited in item (a).
(c) The third attached image shows the daily CDAS Nino 3.4 values through June 12 2016, indicating that this value (while bearing uncertainty in mind) has moved up to +0.31C.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 12, 2016, 11:48:16 PM
From an AGW point of view it really doesn't matter if we have La Nina or El Nino now. With ~90% of the energy going into the ocean the heat will come back to haunt us soon anyway. The ocean will always win.

While I appreciate the point that you are making on a macro-scale; on a decadal-scale I am concerned that the chaotic ratcheting mechanism illustrated in the first attached image could shift (upwards) the quasi-static equilibrium condition of say the Arctic Sea Ice Extent (and consequently the associated Arctic Amplification) if a La Nina were to have begun at the beginning of this month (and advected more warm atmospheric energy into the Arctic Basin).  Furthermore, if the butterfly events in the first image are taken to be a positive PDO phase instead of an ENSO event; this it is possible that the illustrated chaotic ratcheting mechanism could serve to trigger the collapse of the WAIS, which if Hansen et al 2016 are correct (see the second attached image) this could greatly amplify the Earth Energy Imbalance for many decades to come (which effectively increases the ECS for the next several decades with regard to more ice sheet melting and more extreme weather events).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 13, 2016, 03:26:43 AM
Per the following data, and accompanying plot, both issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +1.8:

20160513,20160611,1.8
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 13, 2016, 07:18:45 AM
I'm still not convinced we will see Nina? I think the wider ocean warmth will over ride it and looking at the sst's plot either side of the cold plume???
Neither am I, Gray-Wolf. As I wrote in reply #2 in this thread from Dec 30 2015: "Looking at the upper ocean conditions (first attachment) and specifically at the basin-wide heat anomalies it would be much more likely (in my mind) that this event will take some more time to taper off."
And the decline of El Nino has been slow and I've stuck to that idea since then, speculating about La Nada and maybe a quick dip into La Nina territory and by the look of things now, it might just be so (late forming La Ninas also tend to be weak). Now that's not scientific by any means, since I was anticipating a slow decline, continuing positive PDO values and continued weak coupling from the atmosphere. But I'm just a retired IT-Manager, so I don't have to bother about my reputation or employment. ;)

Regarding your previous question; if we stick to the ONI, then events are defined as 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods at or below the -0.5°C anomaly for La Nina.

Apart from ASLRs points above you can also look at the animations I've made earlier, latest in #711 and #714. Regarding the arctic I've been playing with a scenario wich will give less melt now (as it has been since late May when I proposed that in the IJIS thread) and more next year.
On the macro-scale, apart from risking to be in a continuing decal positive regime in the pacific, we might now also add a natural positive century scale variation (see previous posts in this thread). Hansen's latest, might turn out to be conservative.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on June 13, 2016, 09:11:16 AM
Latest PDO value from JISAO came in at +2,35 making it the highest value on record for the month May. on a second place we find 1940 which had a May value at +2,32 and with 1941 on a third placewith +2,25. The only other year that had a May value above 2,00 is May 1996 and 1993 which had +2,18 and +2,13 respetively.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 13, 2016, 11:02:43 AM
LMW, also as noted in #717 we are now up to 29 consecutive months of positive PDO values.

ASLR, I recognized the graphics from your posts in the Hansen et al thread so I'm with you, I hope...

We humans always needs to fall back on statistics. Weather is chaos and has no memory, it starts from now. Here's a study from March, they are using a markov switching autoregressive model to describe the SOI.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/287816294_A_Markov_regime-switching_framework_to_forecast_El_Nio_Southern_Oscillation_patterns (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/287816294_A_Markov_regime-switching_framework_to_forecast_El_Nio_Southern_Oscillation_patterns)
Only 39 reads but the forecast given there for the SOI is rather interesting.
Attaching Fig10: Forecast obtained with the proposed model for the SOI index (2014-2018).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on June 13, 2016, 03:59:13 PM
Sleepy, very interesting figure you have provided us! :) A new El Niño in 2017-2018 would surely have a good shot to beat out 2016 record high temperatures and put us even closer to the 1,5oC-goal.

The most important thing we should think about right now is that the last time the PDO was positive e.g 1977-1998 the world warmed about 0,4-0,5oC.Given that the humanity have blown up an even higher amount of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere since 1998 I don't think it's completely unreasonable to believ that we might see a temperature increase of 0,5-1oC until about 2035. 2035 seems to be a year quite reasonabe to believe the PDO will switch back to the negative phase. In any case, this would blow us away from the dear 2oC-goal

The prospect of La Niña should however see a decent boost as (ccording to U Albany) an Easterly Wind Burst seems to emerge over the Niño 3.4-area in a couple of days as the MJO moves into the Indian Ocean and strengthens there.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.atmos.albany.edu%2Fstudent%2Fventrice%2Freal_time%2FtimeLon%2Fu.anom.30.5S-5N.gif&hash=4e02dc49a12de3548e6a8589ce630eed)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Gray-Wolf on June 13, 2016, 04:07:02 PM
I believe the PDO is 'milding out' since the early 80's? We still haqve folk telling us we are in PDO-ve and that this positive is just a phase within a phase even if , by Christmas, it will be the longest contiguous phase sign since 98' ( and positive has more 2. something values since 98)'.

If PDO positive generally sees more Nino ,than Nina, activity what would its 'milding out signal?

I'm not saying Nina is dead but if there is a link between phase state and predominance in Nino/Nina occurrences then we should be looking more closely at these 'changes'?

 

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 13, 2016, 07:20:52 PM
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week centered on Jun 8 2016, the Nino 3.4 has increased to +0.1C



                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 18MAY2016     24.3 0.2     26.9-0.1     28.1 0.2     29.4 0.6
 25MAY2016     24.0 0.2     26.6-0.3     27.7-0.1     29.4 0.6
 01JUN2016     23.4 0.0     26.4-0.3     27.6-0.2     29.3 0.5
 08JUN2016     23.7 0.6     26.6 0.0     27.8 0.1     29.5 0.6

The first two attached image were issued today by the BoM for the week ending June 12 2016, for the Nino 3.4 and the IOD indices, respectively, confirming that the current Nino 3.4 is indeed positive, but as the IOD is increasingly negative this implies that the SOI will likely become more positive in coming weeks.

The last two attached images were issued by NOAA today showing the Eq Pac Evolution for the SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively.  Both figures confirm that we have passed the bottom of the EKW trough and so we may stay in ENSO neutral conditions for at least some weeks to come.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 13, 2016, 07:23:44 PM
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for weekly Nino index values through the week ending June 12 2016, for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  The all indicate that ENSO neutral conditions may be sustained for at least some weeks to come.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 14, 2016, 03:25:54 AM
Per the following data, and associated plot, both issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +1.2:

20160514,20160612,1.2
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 14, 2016, 07:45:37 AM
Continuing the pattern seeking.
https://www.esr.org/enso_index.html (https://www.esr.org/enso_index.html)
ENSO cycle as indicated by 1st EOF of surface current and SST anomalies.
Quote
We use the near real-time surface current (SC) output from the diagnostic model to monitor the evolution of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The SC anomaly variations, with the seasonal climatology removed, have a very strong ENSO signal as seen in their principal empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and its comparison with the EOF of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SST). This figure portrays the first EOF mode of SC and SST anomalies for the past decade extending through the latest 10-day period. The amplitude time series (top panel) are computed by fitting the data sets to 10-year base period eigen vectors (1993-2002) The amplitudes are then normalized by their respective standard deviations. The bottom panel shows the corresponding EOF maps, scaled accordingly. The El Niño signal can be seen as periods of positive excursions (> 1 Std. Dev.) of the amplitude time series.
1st pic the EOF plot and the 2nd only the last three years.

The PDO.
https://www.esr.org/pdo_index.html (https://www.esr.org/pdo_index.html)
Quote
A study of the long period baroclinic variability in the Northeast Pacific Ocean (Cummings and Lagerloef, 2004) concluded that this variability occurs as a response to stochastic atmospheric forcing. They report that a significant percentage (~40%) of this variability is evident in the first EOF mode (EOF1) of a Markov model driven by local Ekman pumping as well as the EOF1 mode of the Topex/Poseiden/Jason Altimeter representing the SSH. This indicates that  the EOF1 of the altimeter data is a useful indicator of the decadal variability in the northeast Pacific.   Because SSH variability represents the vertically integrated buoyancy changes of the upper ocean and pycnocline, it provides more slowly varying and robust signal than SST, which responds more rapidly to atmospheric forcing.  This is consistent with previous studies of dynamic height anomalies over the Gulf of Alaska (Lagerloef, 1995), spectra of sea surface temperature and salinity (Hall and Manabe, 1997), and a long time series of pycnocline depth anomalies at Station P (Cummings and Lagerloef, 2002).
As previous pictures above, 3rd pic shows the longer time frame and the 4th the last three years.
Quote
As a method of monitoring this variability, we present the EOF1 amplitude and spatial pattern of the altimeter SSH anomaly (from the long-term mean seasonal cycle).   Other North Pacific variability indices are shown for comparison:  (1) The PDO SST index (Mantua, 1997, is portrayed as blue and red bars, and (2) the historic (1968-1990) Alaska Gyre dynamic height anomaly EOF1 (Lagerloef, 1995), scaled with a factor of 3.5, is the black line. The normalized altimeter SSH anomaly EOF1 amplitude is included as the green line. The most recent SSH anomalies from the 1993:2007 climatology are also shown.
Quote
Note: The gridded SSH data used in this analysis has recently changed. Previously we used a gridded SSH product derived exclusively from the Topex/Poseiden/Jason altimeters. Beginning in 2009, the data presented here are based on the AVISO data product, which analyses multiple altimeters and offers higher spatial resolution than the previous analysis.  Consequently, the newly derived EOF1 spatial pattern shows more structure than the previous analysis.  The 15-year correlation coefficient between the respective SSH EOF1 time series is 0.97.
There are no signs of a PDO decline and the equatorial currents are still anomalously negative.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 14, 2016, 07:53:56 AM
CDAS by Levi Cowan.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 15, 2016, 03:22:14 AM
Per the attached plot issue today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +0.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: gregb on June 15, 2016, 03:45:48 AM
What a difference 2 weeks makes.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 15, 2016, 07:17:02 AM
As a follow up to the animation in #711 here's a comparison between the subsurface analysis from Bom between June 9 and June 13.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on June 15, 2016, 08:29:44 PM
Latest Ensemble ECMWF calls for cool ENSO neutral conditions or weak La Niña conditions by fall.

The majority of the members favor La Niña by July with a bump up in August.

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/nino-plumes-public-charts-long-range-forecast?time=2016060100,0,2016060100&nino_area=3&forecast_type_and_skill_measure=plumes (http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/nino-plumes-public-charts-long-range-forecast?time=2016060100,0,2016060100&nino_area=3&forecast_type_and_skill_measure=plumes)

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 16, 2016, 03:26:25 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +0.6:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 16, 2016, 06:41:30 AM
As noted previously the ECMWF's nino34 forecasts has predicted colder than reality, starting with their March forecast. While this is during the spring barrier it's still a persistent feature. I also noted that ECMWF hasn't updated their forecast from May with that black dotted line yet.

Superimposing the June forecast's dotted line over May (works also with the March forecast over May) gives the attached, and odd, result.

Also attached is CDAS Nino4 by Levi Cowan, now at +0.727
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on June 16, 2016, 05:53:32 PM
Seems like the MJO will move quite quickly over the Indian Ocean and into the Maritime continent during the next couple of days (NCPB). The ECMM forecast has the same solution, but also depicts a scenario in which the MJO, although in a weak state, might reach phase 6 by early July.

This means that there will only be a short time with stronger trades. The ECMM scenario would in addition mean a weak WWB by early July.

U_Albany forecast:(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.atmos.albany.edu%2Fstudent%2Fventrice%2Freal_time%2FtimeLon%2Fu.anom.30.5S-5N.gif&hash=4e02dc49a12de3548e6a8589ce630eed)

ECMM forecast for June 16-June 30 (courtesy NOAA): (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fprecip%2FCWlink%2FMJO%2FCLIVAR%2Fecmm.shtml&hash=076c7e09e10b0281e0269ae09ebfccbf)

NCPB forecast from NOAA: (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fprecip%2FCWlink%2FMJO%2FCLIVAR%2Fncpb.shtml&hash=14866f936e55713517568ee3be6f8ae3)

//LMV
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Steven on June 16, 2016, 07:55:00 PM
Latest plume of model forecasts for the Niño 3.4 index, from the IRI website:


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Firi.columbia.edu%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2016%2F06%2Ffigure4-1.gif&hash=3a27fc09ec84325f25b82d7ffa7d80a1)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Firi.columbia.edu%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2016%2F06%2Ffigure3-4.gif&hash=2d79b37b222ed03c6f8d8320cbd80631)

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-quicklook (http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-quicklook)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 17, 2016, 03:24:40 AM
Per the attached plot issued by the BoM today; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +0.7:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 17, 2016, 05:52:48 AM
The same animation as in #711, but now with June 13 & 16 added. Click on it.
In the last frame the cold pool is surfacing at 140W, also clearly visible on the second picture from yesterday.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 18, 2016, 03:30:14 AM
Per the following data, and associated plot, both issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +1.7:

20160518,20160616,1.7
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 19, 2016, 03:24:10 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +3.4:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 19, 2016, 04:39:15 PM
While at the moment the atmosphere is tending toward promoting future weak La Nina-like conditions, the attached plot showing the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom issued June 19 2016, indicates that at the moment the ocean is tending to promoting neutral conditions.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 20, 2016, 03:23:54 AM
Per both the following data, and the associated attached plot, issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +3.5:

20160520,20160618,3.5
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 20, 2016, 04:35:10 PM
Per the following Nino indices data issued by NOAA through the week centered on June 15 2015, the weekly Nino 3, 3.4 and 4 indices are all more positive.


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 25MAY2016     24.0 0.2     26.6-0.3     27.7-0.1     29.4 0.6
 01JUN2016     23.4 0.0     26.4-0.3     27.6-0.2     29.3 0.5
 08JUN2016     23.7 0.6     26.6 0.0     27.8 0.1     29.5 0.6
 15JUN2016     23.3 0.4     26.6 0.2     27.8 0.2     29.5 0.7
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 20, 2016, 04:52:44 PM
The first and second images show NOAA's Eq Pac evolutions for SSTA and Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively, issued June 20 2016; which together with the third attached image issued today by NOAA of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom; all indicate that we have moved past the trough of the upwelling EKW phase and into a more neutral condition.

The fourth image issued today by the BoM shows the Nino 3.4 index for the week ending June 19 2016, indicating that this index is more positive (but still neutral) as compared to last week.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 20, 2016, 04:58:16 PM
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM showing data through the week ending June 19 2016 for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively (which are generally slightly up):
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 20, 2016, 05:21:03 PM
Showing much the same thing (I think!):(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fpeople%2Fwwang%2Fcfsv2fcst%2Fimages3%2Fnino34Monadj.gif&hash=324b145206ed74bd0607c0c7037ce038)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on June 20, 2016, 05:43:31 PM
The most recent forecast from U_Albany depicts a couple of days ahead with strong easterlies across most of the Pacific basin. This should make the SSTAs plunging down quickly and maybe pave the way for a La Nina.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmikeventrice.weebly.com%2Fhovmollers.html&hash=27999cd085a2f994b79a531da7a13637)

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 21, 2016, 03:26:56 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +3.7:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 21, 2016, 05:21:31 AM
Showing much the same thing (I think!):(https://s31.postimg.org/61oqv7n9n/nino34_Monadj.gif)
I would rather note the blue member runs.
Models aside and right now, we might be looking at a borderline La Nina later on this year, -0.5°C.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 21, 2016, 06:25:37 AM
BoM will be updating today but I won't be able to follow that since I'll be attending my brothers funeral. Here's the same animation as in #743 and earlier, now with June 20 added. Those colder subsurface anomalies are breaking up.
Click to animate.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 21, 2016, 02:37:22 PM
Our condolences, Sleepy.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 21, 2016, 04:47:43 PM
Our condolences, Sleepy.

Our thoughts are with you, Sleepy.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on June 21, 2016, 05:59:11 PM
Our thoughts and condoleances are with you Sleepy!  :(
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: werther on June 21, 2016, 07:59:14 PM
Letting go is the hardest part of life, Sleepy. I wish it was a beautiful ceremony.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 22, 2016, 07:11:17 AM
@all
I'm surprised and amazed by the comments and the PMs I've got. I'm deliberately not too social in my own comments and I did not expect the response.
Letting go never becomes a habit, just break down and get moving again. Life is more important than death, but it's nothing without it.

Thank you very, very much.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 22, 2016, 09:16:39 AM
A quote from BoM yesterday.
Quote
The tropical Pacific Ocean remains in a neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state—neither El Niño nor La Niña—with all ocean and atmospheric indicators now near normal.

Recent observations and climate model forecasts continue to suggest La Niña may develop in the coming months, hence the Bureau’s ENSO Outlook remains at La Niña WATCH level. A La Niña WATCH means there is a 50% likelihood of La Niña developing during the second half of 2016.  If La Niña does develop, climate models suggest it is unlikely to reach levels seen in the most recent event of 2010–12, which was one of the strongest La Niña events on record.
Latest POAMA Nino34 from June 19 attached along with those from May 8 & May 22. POAMA Nino3 & Nino4 never reaches La Nina (BoM threshold at -0.8°C).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 22, 2016, 04:36:13 PM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to +3.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 23, 2016, 04:01:14 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to +2.3:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 24, 2016, 05:02:29 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +2.4 (and thus is still neutral):
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 24, 2016, 08:22:38 AM
Yet another subsurface animation, as the previous ones, now with June 23 added.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 25, 2016, 03:24:47 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 26, 2016, 03:32:10 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 26, 2016, 08:37:34 PM
The first image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued June 26 2016.  The second images shows TAO's Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom also issued June 26 2106.  The third image shows U at Albany's 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from June 26 to July 3 2016.  Collectively, this images support the idea that ENSO neutral conditions will continue for some time to come.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 27, 2016, 03:23:45 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +3.6:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 27, 2016, 05:13:21 PM
The following NOAA data on weekly Nino indices information through the week centered on June 22 2016, indicates neutral conditions with the Nino 3.4 index at -0.4C:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 25MAY2016     24.0 0.2     26.6-0.3     27.7-0.1     29.4 0.6
 01JUN2016     23.4 0.0     26.4-0.3     27.6-0.2     29.3 0.5
 08JUN2016     23.7 0.6     26.6 0.0     27.8 0.1     29.5 0.6
 15JUN2016     23.3 0.4     26.6 0.2     27.8 0.2     29.5 0.7
 22JUN2016     22.4-0.1     25.9-0.3     27.2-0.4     29.3 0.5

The first two images were issued today by the BoM with weekly data through the week ending June 26 2016, with the first image for the Nino 3.4 index and the second for the IOD index, both of which are down from last week.

The last two images were issued today by NOAA showing Eq Pac Evolution plots for SSTA and Upper Ocean Heat Anoms, respectively.  Both of which indicate continuing ENSO neutral conditions.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 27, 2016, 05:16:57 PM
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM for weekly data thru the week ending June 26 2016, & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  This data indicates neutral ENSO conditions.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 28, 2016, 04:40:20 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 29, 2016, 03:20:19 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 29, 2016, 09:47:42 AM
Kind of a stand still anticipating a drop into La Nina territory during July. The most interesting area right now is probably the one that contains the earlier discussed Nino CP region. Not only for teleconnections to the Arctic but also because it contains the smaller Nino4 region which is an important area during a transition to La Nina.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 30, 2016, 03:21:26 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +5.6:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on June 30, 2016, 08:20:10 AM
An animated comparison between June28 & June29 of the same region as in Reply #774.
It shows warming again, that area is amazingly stubborn.

I also noted Robert Scribblers latest and that several people got hung up on the jet stream crossing the equator. That itself is not unusual as it has happened many times before. The changes in wind anomalies in the stratosphere are, which can be observed by the QBO index.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 01, 2016, 03:24:47 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +5.7:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on July 01, 2016, 07:28:27 AM
A study published in 2012 on what might be going on in the Nino3 area (open access):
Parameterization of Tropical Instability Waves and Examination of Their Impact on ENSO Characteristics
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00233.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00233.1)
Abstract.
Quote
The impact of tropical instability waves (TIWs) on El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) characteristics is investigated by introducing a new parameterization of TIWs into an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM), the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), with a medium-resolution (~1.4°) ocean model (known as MIROCmedres). Because this resolution is not sufficient to reproduce eddies at the spatial scale of TIWs, this approach isolates TIW effects from other factors that can affect ENSO characteristics. The parameterization scheme represents the effect of baroclinic eddy heat transport by TIWs. A 100-yr integration reveals a significant role of TIWs in observed ENSO asymmetry. Asymmetric heat transport associated with TIWs that are active (inactive) during La Niña (El Niño) generates a significant asymmetric negative feedback to ENSO and explains the observed asymmetric feature of a stronger-amplitude El Niño and weaker-amplitude La Niña. Furthermore, the parameterized eddy heat flux also affects the mean subsurface heat balance via the shallowing and steepening thermocline. This change in subsurface stratification induces a stronger thermocline feedback and a longer ENSO period.
A small quote from the summary as well.
Quote
Observational data have shown that the asymmetry of ENSO has increased concurrent with the 1970s climate shift (Wu and Hsieh 2003; An 2004; An and Jin 2004; An et al. 2005). An and Jin (2004) reported that the interdecadal changes in ENSO nonlinearity were related to SST climate-state change and subsurface temperature. Many studies have shown that the SST pattern change in the 1970s has produced local maximum values in the off-equatorial eastern Pacific in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres (e.g., Imada and Kimoto 2009); that is, the increasing meridional SST gradient at the north of the cold tongue is favorable for the activation of TIWs.
My bold in both quotes above.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 02, 2016, 03:27:51 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +5.8:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on July 02, 2016, 07:14:00 AM
Multidecadal Variations of the Effects of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the Climate System.
http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/acp-2016-502/ (http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/acp-2016-502/)
Quote
Effects of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) on tropospheric climate are relatively small or appear only intermittently. Studying them requires long time series of both the QBO and climate variables, which has restricted previous studies to the past 30-50 years. Here we use the benefits of an existing QBO reconstruction back to 1908. We first investigate additional, newly digitized historical observations of stratospheric winds to test the reconstruction. Then we use 20 the QBO time series to analyze atmospheric data sets (reconstructions and reanalyses) as well as the results of coupled ocean-atmosphere-chemistry climate model simulations that were forced with the reconstructed QBO. We investigate effects related to (1) tropical-extratropical interaction in the stratosphere, wave-mean flow interaction, and subsequent downward propagation and (2) interaction between deep tropical convection and stratospheric flow. We generally find weak connections, though some are statistically significant over the 100-year period and consistent with model results. Apparent 25 multidecadal variations in the connection between the QBO and the investigated climate responses are consistent with a small effect in the presence of large variability, with one exception: the imprint on the northern polar vortex, which is seen in recent reanalysis data, is not found in the period 1908-1957. Conversely, an imprint in Berlin surface air temperature is only found in 1908-1957, but not in the recent period. In the model simulations, likewise, both links tend to appear alternatingly, suggesting a more systematic modulation. Over the Pacific warm pool, we find increased convection during easterly QBO 30 mainly in boreal winter in observation-based data as well as in the model simulations, with large variability. No QBO effects were found in the Indian monsoon strength or Atlantic hurricane frequency.


The Impact of GCM Dynamical Cores on Idealized Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and their QBO Interactions
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0242.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0242.1)
Quote
The paper demonstrates that Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) can be simulated in an ensemble of dry dynamical cores that miss the typical SSW forcing mechanisms like moist processes, land-sea contrasts or topography. These idealized General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations are driven by a simple Held-Suarez-Williamson (HSW) temperature relaxation and low-level Rayleigh friction. In particular, the four dynamical cores of NCAR’s Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) are used which are the semi-Lagrangian (SLD) and Eulerian (EUL) spectral transform models, the Finite-Volume (FV) and the Spectral Element (SE) model.

Three research themes are discussed. First, it is shown that SSW events in such idealized simulations have very realistic flow characteristics that are analyzed via the SLD model. A single vortex-split event is highlighted that is driven by wavenumber 1 and 2 wave-mean flow interactions. Secondly, the SLD simulations are compared to the EUL, FV and SE dynamical cores, which sheds light on the impact of the numerical schemes on the circulation. Only SLD produces major SSWs while others only exhibit minor stratospheric warmings. These differences are caused by SLD’s more vigorous wave-mean flow interactions in addition to a warm pole bias which leads to relatively weak polar jets in SLD. Thirdly, it is shown that tropical Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)-like oscillations and SSWs can co-exist in such idealized HSW simulations. They are present in the SLD dynamical core that is used to analyze the QBO-SSW interactions via a Transformed Eulerian Mean (TEM) analysis. The TEM results provide support for the Holton-Tan effect.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on July 02, 2016, 07:16:22 AM
This one's unfortunately paywalled.

Mjo-related intraseasonal variation of gravity waves in the southern hemisphere tropical stratosphere revealed by high-resolution airs observations.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JD024463/abstract (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JD024463/abstract)
Quote
The intraseasonal variability of gravity waves (GWs) in the austral summer middle stratosphere was examined using dedicated high-resolution temperature retrieval from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder data. Composite maps were made of stratospheric GW temperature variances, large-scale zonal winds around the tropopause, and precipitation based on the real-time multivariate Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) index. Regional distributions of these quantities are synchronized with the MJO: The GW variances are larger for stronger precipitation, and for more strongly westward wind around the tropopause at a given precipitation. These results suggest that the GWs observed by AIRS in the stratosphere originate from convection. Moreover, it is shown that the zonal wind around the tropopause likely controls the GW propagation into the stratosphere by a critical level filtering mechanism and/or the GW generation by an obstacle source effect. This means that the MJO can modulate the middle atmospheric circulation by regulating the GWs in two ways, namely, generation and propagation.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on July 02, 2016, 07:47:45 AM
Animation/flip between the latest two analyses by BoM, first July01 second June30.
Click to animate.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 02, 2016, 07:38:49 PM
Per the linked reference, the Indo-Pacific warm pool is growing (32% in the past 60-years) and warming due to anthropogenic causes:

Evan Weller, Seung-Ki Min, Wenju Cai, Francis W. Zwiers, Yeon-Hee Kim and Donghyun Lee (01 Jul 2016), "Human-caused Indo-Pacific warm pool expansion", Science Advances, Vol. 2, no. 7, e1501719, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1501719


http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/7/e1501719 (http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/7/e1501719)

Abstract: "The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) has warmed and grown substantially during the past century. The IPWP is Earth’s largest region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), has the highest rainfall, and is fundamental to global atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle. The region has also experienced the world’s highest rates of sea-level rise in recent decades, indicating large increases in ocean heat content and leading to substantial impacts on small island states in the region. Previous studies have considered mechanisms for the basin-scale ocean warming, but not the causes of the observed IPWP expansion, where expansion in the Indian Ocean has far exceeded that in the Pacific Ocean. We identify human and natural contributions to the observed IPWP changes since the 1950s by comparing observations with climate model simulations using an optimal fingerprinting technique. Greenhouse gas forcing is found to be the dominant cause of the observed increases in IPWP intensity and size, whereas natural fluctuations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation have played a smaller yet significant role. Further, we show that the shape and impact of human-induced IPWP growth could be asymmetric between the Indian and Pacific basins, the causes of which remain uncertain. Human-induced changes in the IPWP have important implications for understanding and projecting related changes in monsoonal rainfall, and frequency or intensity of tropical storms, which have profound socioeconomic consequences."

See also:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/07/01/the-biggest-body-of-warm-water-on-earth-is-getting-even-bigger/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/07/01/the-biggest-body-of-warm-water-on-earth-is-getting-even-bigger/)

Extract: "And the warm pool is growing.
“It is about four or five times larger than Australia,” said Seung-Ki Min, a researcher at Pohang University of Science and Technology in South Korea and an author of a new study in Science Advances on the warm pool’s expansion. “It has been increasing about 32 percent over the last 60 years in size.”"
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 03, 2016, 03:17:17 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +5.9:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 04, 2016, 03:28:42 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +5.9:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on July 04, 2016, 06:59:22 AM
So, the pacific storm drought is coming to an end according to JTWC.
Earlier records of inactivity in the western pacific were in 72-73 and 97-98 (198 days) and 82-83 (196 days). The warmer than normal waters in the western pacific has been countered by stronger than normal vertical wind shear.

In the eastern pacific the previously latest date for a troiplcal storm to form was in 20090621 with Andres.

Edit; read this now: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/west-pacific-ocean-longest-stretch-without-tropical-activity-on-record-july-2/58455831 (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/west-pacific-ocean-longest-stretch-without-tropical-activity-on-record-july-2/58455831)
Quote
The new record of 199 days ended on Sunday with the development of Tropical Storm Nepartak. The lack of tropical systems occurred from Dec. 17, 2015 to July 2, 2016.
Quote
The development of Nepartak ended this season's bid to break another tropical record. July 7 marks the latest start to a single season without a named tropical system in history
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 04, 2016, 05:14:36 PM
The first two images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending July 3 2016, showing the Nino 3.4 and IOD, indices, respectively.

The last two images were issued today by NOAA, with the first showing the CFSv2 Nino 3.4 forecast and the second showing the NCPB MJO forecast.

All of these images support the idea that ENSO neutral conditions will prevail for some time (months) to come.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 04, 2016, 05:18:39 PM
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM thru the week ending July 3 2016 and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  All images indicate ENSO neutral conditions.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on July 05, 2016, 06:35:35 AM
Latest analysis by BoM (20160704) shows that subsurface cold pool strengthening again. And warmer anomalies both below and above strengthening. The anaysis from 20160701 seemed a bit odd. Not cropped and no animation this time.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on July 05, 2016, 07:42:26 AM
BoM have issued a Negative Indian Ocean Dipole. Current weekly IOD value is the lowest on 15 years according to BoM. Often means higher maxtemps and warmer nights in the northern parts of Australia. They also indicate that if a La Niña forms, climate models suggest it's unlikely that it would be of the same magnitude as during 2010-2012.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/)

Latest ONI value from NOAA for AMJ is +0,7.ENSO of 1992 and 1983 both had a higher AMJ value at +1,0 respectively. 1958 had an equal high value at this time of year. So did 1987 too, but that year should be seen as a special case. None of the years 1992, 1983 and 1958 saw a La Niña emerging during the second half of year. In fact, 1958 saw a minimal El Niño developing through the beginning of 1959.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 05, 2016, 04:34:00 PM
The following weekly NOAA Nino data indicates that the Nino 3.4 index remained unchanged at -0.4C:

                   Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 01JUN2016     23.4 0.0     26.4-0.3     27.6-0.2     29.3 0.5
 08JUN2016     23.7 0.6     26.6 0.0     27.8 0.1     29.5 0.6
 15JUN2016     23.3 0.4     26.6 0.2     27.8 0.2     29.5 0.7
 22JUN2016     22.4-0.1     25.9-0.3     27.2-0.4     29.3 0.5
 29JUN2016     22.6 0.4     25.9-0.1     27.1-0.4     29.1 0.3

The first three attached images were all issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac, with the first two showing the Evolutions for the SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively.  The third image shows the Upper Ocean Heat Anom; while the fourth image was issued yesterday by the BoM and indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +5.1.  These images support the idea of neutral ENSO conditions.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 06, 2016, 03:29:22 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +5.1:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on July 06, 2016, 10:19:22 AM
As for the aftermath of this thread, in -67 Manabe and Wetherald projected a cooling stratosphere over a warming troposphere, what are we seeing now?
 
A qoute from the following paper by Gerber and also the 1st picture attached with the vertical temperature structure of the atmosphere showing the January zonal-mean temperature at 40 N.
The Stratosphere and its Coupling to the Troposphere and Beyond
http://math.nyu.edu/~gerber/pages/documents/gerber-strat_trop_coupling-Encyc_Applied_Comp_Math.pdf (http://math.nyu.edu/~gerber/pages/documents/gerber-strat_trop_coupling-Encyc_Applied_Comp_Math.pdf)
Quote
Anthropogenic forcing has changed the stratosphere, with resulting impacts on the surface. While greenhouse gases warm the troposphere, they increase the radiative efficiency of the stratosphere, leading to a net cooling in this part of the atmosphere. The combination of a warming troposphere and cooling stratosphere leads to a rise in the tropopause, and may be one of the most identifiable signatures of global warming on the atmospheric circulation.
We have seen changes in stratospheric winds (QBO) as mentioned above in this thread, but what about the temperatures after this El Nino?
The main point of entry is in the tropics, attached in the 2nd picture are the tropical zonal mean temperatures for 70, 50 and 30mb. They are showing cooler than normal temperatures. If that will affect higher latitudes we surely must see some effects in the following year?

To visualise what I'm playing with, I'll attach a 3rd picture, Fig14 from this recent article:
Tambora and the “Year Without a Summer” of 1816. A Perspective on Earth and Human Systems Science.
http://www.geography.unibe.ch/unibe/portal/fak_naturwis/e_geowiss/c_igeogr/content/e39624/e39625/e39626/e426207/e431533/tambora_e_web_eng.pdf (http://www.geography.unibe.ch/unibe/portal/fak_naturwis/e_geowiss/c_igeogr/content/e39624/e39625/e39626/e426207/e431533/tambora_e_web_eng.pdf)

If warming thanks to eruptions gives that delay seen in the 3rd picture (Fig14), would not cooling thanks to global warming and the recent strong El Nino do the (mirrored) same?
82-83 is a bad year to check (thanks to El Chichon) but after 97-98, a cooling is possible to see over the Arctic the following winter and spring. How much warmer, wetter and (less) ice will that give in 2017?

Or have I simply lost my marbles? :)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on July 06, 2016, 04:11:09 PM
Oh, Nepartak is a Cat5 now.
JTWC: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
Heading towards Taiwan.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 07, 2016, 03:25:47 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +5.1:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on July 07, 2016, 07:14:03 AM
More QBO.
A quote from a tweet by Sam Lillo including the 1st picture.
Quote
QBO still in process of shifting nearly 180 degrees out of phase from the oscillation we've observed for decades

2nd picture from the University of Reading showing a time-pressure section for the last two years zonal mean equatorial winds in more detail than the graphs from fu-berlin posted earlier.

An older link to Sandro Wellyanto Lubis site describing planetary waves.
https://sandrolubis.wordpress.com/2012/09/19/planetary-waves/ (https://sandrolubis.wordpress.com/2012/09/19/planetary-waves/)
Quote
Planetary waves can be defined as large-scale perturbations or disturbances of the atmospheric dynamical structure having zonal wavelengths of the scale of the earth’s radius. These waves have significant influence on the wind speeds, temperature, distribution of ozone, and other characteristics of the middle atmosphere structure. Planetary waves (PW) are responsible for the longer-period variability in the stratospheric dynamic such as QBO, SSW, and vacillation of the mean flow at extratropical latitudes and also play an important role in the dynamic of MLT (Salby 1984, Pogoreltsev et al., 2007, Forbes et al. 2004). These waves are generated by orographic and diabatic heating in the troposphere and also possible forced by irregular thermal or mechanical forcing in the lower atmosphere (Holton 2004, Andrews et al., 1987, Fedulina 2004).

The QBO is not behaving as supposed. Also adding Table II from this paper.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291186271_The_Climate-system_Historical_Forecast_Project_Do_stratosphere-resolving_models_make_better_seasonal_climate_predictions_in_boreal_winter (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291186271_The_Climate-system_Historical_Forecast_Project_Do_stratosphere-resolving_models_make_better_seasonal_climate_predictions_in_boreal_winter)

The 82-83 El Nino with a WQBO was followed by QBO neutral. Whatever the QBO is up to now, it will probably mess up some forecasts.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 07, 2016, 09:50:24 PM
Scribbler notes that not only will Super Typhoon Nepartak have a big impact on Taiwan, but it will also have a big impact on mainland China that has already sustained well above average rainfall (& associated flooding):

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/07/06/rapid-bombification-super-typhoon-nepartak-barrels-toward-taiwan-takes-aim-at-already-flooded-china/

Extract: "Super Typhoon Nepartak Barrels Toward Taiwan, Takes Aim at Already Flooded China"
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 08, 2016, 03:27:17 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +6.7 (but remains in the neutral range):
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on July 08, 2016, 08:14:51 AM
A follow up to my comment in #796 and still stratosphere related. To be blunt, the ECMWF nino plumes are messed up. I've had a hard time accepting the modeled outputs all spring (not only ECMWF). The outputs from January-February were actually better than the following ones.
Attaching the Nino4, Nino3 and Nino34 plumes for June.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 09, 2016, 03:34:05 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +5.2:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 10, 2016, 03:26:18 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +4.4:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 11, 2016, 03:35:54 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +4.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on July 11, 2016, 06:25:56 AM
Nino4 going up again according to CDAS by Levi Cowan, Nino3 down. Subsurface cold pool diminishing according to TAO/TRITON.
70&10mb winds almost a carbon copy of 2015 when viewed through earth.nullschool.net.
Quite different Nino34 plumes from ECMWF compared to June.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 11, 2016, 06:42:45 PM
Per the following NOAA data the ENSO conditions remain neutral for the week centered on July 6 2016 (with Nino 3.4 remaining constant at -0.4C):

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 15JUN2016     23.3 0.4     26.6 0.2     27.8 0.2     29.5 0.7
 22JUN2016     22.4-0.1     25.9-0.3     27.2-0.4     29.3 0.5
 29JUN2016     22.6 0.4     25.9-0.1     27.1-0.4     29.1 0.3
 06JUL2016     22.2 0.2     25.5-0.4     27.0-0.4     29.1 0.3

The first two images were issued by the BoM for the week ending July 10 2016, with the first showing the Nino 3.4 remains neutral and the second showing that the IOD is now more negative that it has been in several years.

The last two images were issued by NOAA for the Eq Pac Evolution issued July 11 2016 for the SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Content Anom, respectively.  All of this data indicates continuing ENSO neutral conditions for some weeks to come.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 11, 2016, 06:44:36 PM
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending July 10 2016, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4, indices respectively.  All plots indicate continuing ENSO neutral conditions.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 11, 2016, 06:55:00 PM
The first image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued July 11 2016.

The second image shows NOAA Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom plot issued July 11 2016.

The third image shows the ECMM MJO forecast from July 11 to 25 2016.

The fourth image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from July 11 to 18 2016.

All of these plots indicate continuing ENSO neutral conditions for some weeks to come.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 12, 2016, 03:23:36 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +3.7:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on July 12, 2016, 06:16:38 AM
70&10mb winds almost a carbon copy of 2015 when viewed through earth.nullschool.net.
A short follow up to that, here viewed with the graphics presented at the University of Reading.
First picture is their graphics for June 9.
Second is a cross section cut from the approximately same time of last year compared now.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 13, 2016, 03:24:36 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 14, 2016, 03:34:19 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +4.5 (and thus remains ENSO neutral):
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 15, 2016, 10:26:23 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +3.8:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 16, 2016, 03:26:34 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +3.9:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on July 16, 2016, 07:23:11 AM
So, finally we mere mortals have been blessed with access to ECMWF's July nino plumes. The earlier post with the July Nino34 in Reply #803 was from a tweet by a meteorologist.
The Nino4 is even more interesting.

Edit; here's the June Nino4 posted earlier.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fforum.arctic-sea-ice.net%2Findex.php%3Faction%3Ddlattach%3Btopic%3D1454.0%3Battach%3D32205%3Bimage&hash=db94caf2f67fa6785c71eba880d2f72b)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Archimid on July 16, 2016, 04:57:46 PM
I don't understand what happened in the last leg of observations of the NINO4 SST. The observation blue dotted lines have red dotted lines below it. Does this means that the observations took a  higher path that prior projections?
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 16, 2016, 06:55:03 PM
Quote
Ed Vallee:  Real-time ENSO water temp analysis showing first official #LaNina reading in the 3.4 region today. Must watch trends
https://twitter.com/edvalleewx/status/754319838932262913
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 17, 2016, 03:27:56 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +3.1:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on July 17, 2016, 06:29:39 AM
I don't understand what happened in the last leg of observations of the NINO4 SST. The observation blue dotted lines have red dotted lines below it. Does this means that the observations took a  higher path that prior projections?
You mean the plumes from June?
My earlier comment where I posted that, might help?
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1454.msg82734.html#msg82734 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1454.msg82734.html#msg82734)

I'll also add a quote from ECMWF:
Quote
The biggest risk factor to the validity of the p.d.f. is the risk that the ENSO SSTs in future years will be biased warm or cold relative to the calibration period for reasons that are missing from the models, or that one or more of the models suffers from some error or mistake that will result in future forecasts being biased relative to model performance in the calibration period.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on July 17, 2016, 06:41:31 AM
Quote
Ed Vallee:  Real-time ENSO water temp analysis showing first official #LaNina reading in the 3.4 region today. Must watch trends
https://twitter.com/edvalleewx/status/754319838932262913
Better watch trends in the Nino4 region. A quote from NOAA:
Quote
SST values in the Niño 3.4 region may not be the best choice for determining La Niña episodes but, for consistency, the index has been defined by negative anomalies in this area. A better choice might be the Niño 4 region, since that region normally has SSTs at or above the threshold for deep convection throughout the year. An SST anomaly of -0.5°C in that region would be sufficient to bring water temperatures below the 28°C threshold, which would result in a significant westward shift in the pattern of deep convection in the tropical Pacific.
And also attaching CDAS for Nino4 by Levi Cowan.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 18, 2016, 03:26:12 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +2.4:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on July 18, 2016, 04:32:08 PM
Decided to blog on Nino 3.4 SST's and what it looks like when we change the base by using the NCDC SST data. The SST data goes back to 1854. The difference is attached for 1981-2010 vs 1854-1883 SSTs and anomalies.

The blog link is: http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/2016/07/super-el-nino-over-perhaps-not-base.html (http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/2016/07/super-el-nino-over-perhaps-not-base.html)

A4R
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 18, 2016, 06:08:25 PM

The following NOAA data indicates that for the week centered on July 13 2016 both the Nino 3.4 & the Nino 3 have drifted down to -0.6:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 15JUN2016     23.3 0.4     26.6 0.2     27.8 0.2     29.5 0.7
 22JUN2016     22.4-0.1     25.9-0.3     27.2-0.4     29.3 0.5
 29JUN2016     22.6 0.4     25.9-0.1     27.1-0.4     29.1 0.3
 06JUL2016     22.2 0.2     25.5-0.4     27.0-0.4     29.1 0.3
 13JUL2016     21.8 0.0     25.1-0.6     26.7-0.6     29.1 0.3

Per the first two images issued today by the BoM for the week ending July 17 2016, the first image indicates the Nino 3.4 remains in the neutral range (at -0.21) while the second image indicates that the IOD remains negative.

The last two images were both issued today by NOAA & the third image indicates that the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom remains relatively unchanged as is also the case for the Eq Pac SSTA Evolution shown in the fourth image:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 18, 2016, 06:10:56 PM
The four attached images were all issued by the BoM today for the week ending July 17 2016, for the Nino 1, 2 3 & 4 indices, respectively; and they all indicate ENSO neutral conditions:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 19, 2016, 09:27:01 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +1.8:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 20, 2016, 03:29:33 AM
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +1.8:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on July 20, 2016, 05:10:19 AM
June PDO at 2.03°C.
The PDO has now been positive for 30 consecutive months.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 21, 2016, 03:31:31 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +2.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on July 21, 2016, 07:12:02 AM
QBO.
The multivariate QBO index employs two EOFs that together describe 95.4% of the variance in the winds. MQI phase space. The annotation on the plot indicates the pressure level of the relevant wind extrema (e.g. W50 is a westerly wind max at 50mb).
First picture shows the projected changes, the second July 16, by Sam Lillo.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on July 21, 2016, 08:43:38 AM
Multi-year persistence of the 2014/15 North Pacific marine heatwave.
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3082.html (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3082.html)
Paywalled.
Between the winters of 2013/14 and 2014/15 during the strong North American drought, the northeast Pacific experienced the largest marine heatwave ever recorded. Here we combine observations with an ensemble of climate model simulations to show that teleconnections between the North Pacific and the weak 2014/2015 El Niño linked the atmospheric forcing patterns of this event. These teleconnection dynamics from the extratropics to the tropics during winter 2013/14, and then back to the extratropics during winter 2014/15, are a key source of multi-year persistence of the North Pacific atmosphere. The corresponding ocean anomalies map onto known patterns of North Pacific decadal variability, specifically the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) in 2014 and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in 2015. A large ensemble of climate model simulations predicts that the winter variance of the NPGO- and PDO-like patterns increases under greenhouse forcing, consistent with other studies suggesting an increase in the atmospheric extremes that lead to drought over North America.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 22, 2016, 04:57:00 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.3:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 23, 2016, 03:24:30 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on July 23, 2016, 06:27:06 AM
Nino4 now at -0.307°C according to CDAS presented by Levi Cowan.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 24, 2016, 03:39:48 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +4.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 25, 2016, 03:29:18 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; for the third day the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +4.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 25, 2016, 04:48:40 PM

Per the following table issued by NOAA today thru the week centered on July 20 2016, the Nino 3.4 & 4 have remained constant:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 06JUL2016     22.2 0.2     25.5-0.4     27.0-0.4     29.1 0.3
 13JUL2016     21.8 0.0     25.1-0.6     26.7-0.6     29.1 0.3
 20JUL2016     21.6 0.2     25.1-0.5     26.6-0.6     29.0 0.3

The first two attached plot were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending July 24 2016 show the Nino 3.4 at -0.17 & the IOD at -1.06, respectively.

The last two plots were issued today by NOAA & show the Eq Pac Evolution for the SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively.

On balance this information indicates continuing ENSO neutral conditions.

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 25, 2016, 04:51:21 PM
The four attached plot were all issued today by the BoM thru the week ending July 24 2016, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  These plots indicate continuing ENSO neutral conditions.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 26, 2016, 03:33:10 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; for the third day the 30-day moving average SOI has drifter up to +4.1:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on July 26, 2016, 09:12:23 AM
Nino4 temps going up again (CDAS), equatorial subsurface cold pool slowly tapering off, atmosphere not responding, PDO continously postive, it's the end of July, etc...
2017/18 El Nino?
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 27, 2016, 03:22:42 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; for the second day the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +4.1:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on July 27, 2016, 04:25:29 AM
QBO, update to #827 above. Sam Lillo keeps updating these graphs via tweets.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on July 27, 2016, 04:39:11 AM
More on the Nino4 region but a trip back to the former El Nino thread, December 16:th and CFSv2.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1064.msg67183.html#msg67183 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1064.msg67183.html#msg67183)
Hotlinking to that graph there:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fforum.arctic-sea-ice.net%2Findex.php%3Faction%3Ddlattach%3Btopic%3D1064.0%3Battach%3D23046%3Bimage&hash=c4a572d2bc7e62c786e03eefe8a63409)
And attaching the present Nino4 from CFSv2.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on July 27, 2016, 08:02:27 AM
ENSO-related variation of equatorial MRG and Rossby waves and forcing from higher latitudes.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2842/full (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2842/full)
Quote
Abstract
The contrasting behaviour of westward-moving mixed Rossby–gravity (WMRG) and the first Rossby (R1) waves in El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) seasons is documented with a focus on the Northern Hemisphere winter. The eastward-moving variance in the upper troposphere is dominated by WMRG and R1 structures that appear to be Doppler-shifted by the flow and are referred to as WMRG-E and R1-E. In the east Pacific and Atlantic the years with stronger equatorial westerly winds, LN in the former and EN in the latter, have the stronger WMRG and WMRG-E. In the east Pacific, R1 is also a maximum in LN. However, R1-E exhibits an eastward shift between LN and EN.

The changes with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase provide a test bed for the understanding of these waves. In the east Pacific and Atlantic, the stronger WMRG-E and WMRG with stronger westerlies are in accord with the dispersion relation with simple Doppler-shifting by the zonal flow. The possible existence of free waves can also explain stronger R1 in EN in the Eastern Hemisphere. 1-D free-wave propagation theory based on wave activity conservation is also important for R1. However, this theory is unable to explain the amplitude maxima for other waves observed in the strong equatorial westerly regions in the Western Hemisphere, and certainly not their ENSO-related variation. The forcing of equatorial waves by higher-latitude wave activity and its variation with ENSO phase is therefore examined. Propagation of extratropical eastward-moving Rossby wave activity through the westerly ducts into the equatorial region where it triggers WMRG-E is favoured in the stronger westerlies, in LN in the east Pacific and EN in the Atlantic. It is also found that WMRG is forced by Southern Hemisphere westward-moving wave trains arching into the equatorial region where they are reflected. The most significant mechanism for both R1 and R1-E appears to be lateral forcing by subtropical wave trains.
Plus a quote from within the paper:
Quote
The fact that EN events significantly suppress WMRG waves over the central-eastern Pacific in both winter and summer may have an implication for the stratosphere QBO. Maruyama and Tsuneoka (1988) found that EN events had a connection to longer-lasting QBO westerly/shorter-lasting QBO easterly. This is consistent with the finding here considering that the tropospheric WMRG waves, which propagate upwards and contribute to the easterly momentum acceleration, are suppressed in EN years. In addition, given that Kelvin waves contribute to the westerly momentum acceleration, the QBO difference may also be related to the fact that upper-tropospheric Kelvin waves are substantially enhanced by EN events, as shown in Yang and Hoskins (2013). A modelling study of Maury et al. (2013) indeed showed that ENSO has a substantial influence on stratospheric Kelvin waves.
My bold.

Another recent discussion paper:
Tropical temperature variability and Kelvin wave activity in the UTLS from GPS RO measurements.
http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/acp-2016-576/ (http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/acp-2016-576/)
Quote
Abstract. Tropical temperature variability over 10–30 km and associated Kelvin wave activity is investigated using GPS radio occultation (RO) data from January 2002 to December 2014. RO data are a powerful tool to quantify tropical temperature oscillations with short vertical wavelengths due to their high vertical resolution and high accuracy and precision. Gridded temperatures from GPS RO show strongest variability in the tropical tropopause region (on average 3 K²). Large-scale zonal variability is dominated by transient high-frequency waves (2 K²) and about half of high-frequency variance is explained by eastward traveling Kelvin waves with periods of 7 to 30 days (1 K²). Quasi-stationary waves associated with the annual cycle and inter-annual variability contribute about a third (1 K²) to total resolved zonal variance. High-frequency waves, including Kelvin waves, are highly transient in time. Above 20 km, Kelvin waves are strongly modulated by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in stratospheric zonal winds, with enhanced wave activity during the westerly shear phase of the QBO. In the tropical tropopause region, however, peaks of Kelvin wave activity are irregularly distributed in time. Several peaks coincide with maxima of zonal variance in tropospheric deep convection, but other episodes are not evidently related. Further investigations of convective forcing and atmospheric background conditions are needed to better understand variability near the tropopause.
My bold.

Also attaching fig 10 from the discussion paper.
Quote
Figure 10. Time series of daily Kelvin wave variance (thin gray) and smoothed Kelvin wave variance (thick black) at 18 km (top panel) and time series of daily variances of high-pass filtered OLR data between 10°S and 10°N (bottom panel). Green and red lines indicate points of time with smoothed Kelvin wave variance outside of one standard deviation (1.59 K², indicated by the dashed yellow line). Green lines indicate matched peaks between Kelvin wave variance and OLR variance, red lines indicate a peak in Kelvin wave variance but a missing peak in OLR variance. Blue lines in the bottom panel indicate a peak in OLR variance but a missing peak in Kelvin wave variance.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 27, 2016, 11:25:04 AM
QBO, update to #827 above. Sam Lillo keeps updating these graphs via tweets.

For those who are interested, the following links directly to Sam Lillo's Twitter feed:

https://twitter.com/splillo?lang=en
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on July 28, 2016, 05:36:59 AM
CDAS Nino4 by Levi Cowan.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 28, 2016, 07:01:34 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; for the third day in a row the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +4.1:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 29, 2016, 03:30:00 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +2.8:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on July 29, 2016, 06:10:20 AM
ESA's SMOS satellite has found a rise in fresh water in the tropical Pacific Ocean during last year's El Niño event.
http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/SMOS/SMOS_tracks_Pacific_fresh_water_pools (http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/SMOS/SMOS_tracks_Pacific_fresh_water_pools)
Quote
The SMOS satellite first acquired sea-surface salinity observations in early 2010 as a weak El Niño was fading out and reversed into a strong La Niña, which lasted until 2012. Lower than usual salinities were observed in early 2010 in the equatorial Pacific as the Western Pacific Fresh Pool extended east. The pool retracted back westward as La Niña settled in.
Last year, a strong El Niño developed again. The central Pacific high salinities disappeared and gave way for the Western Pacific Fresh Pool to reach the Eastern Pacific Fresh Pool. This is the greatest El Niño-related salinity anomaly ever measured at the basin scale.

“Scientists have shown that low-salinity pools modify the ocean’s vertical structure and change the impact of the atmospheric forcing on it,” said Audrey Hasson, researcher at LOCEAN in Paris, France.

“A study combining satellite observations with models is underway to understand the role of salinity in the development of the most recent El Niño event.”

Furthermore, scientists have identified the rain-dominated Eastern Pacific Fresh Pool as an ideal place to carry out experiments to better understand the link between sea surface salinity, freshwater fluxes and the oceanic circulation.

Scientists have not only used SMOS data to examine the extent of the fresh pool at the surface, but also salinity measurements collected by Argo buoys to estimate the depth of the fresh pool.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.esa.int%2Fvar%2Fesa%2Fstorage%2Fimages%2Fesa_multimedia%2Fimages%2F2016%2F07%2Fsalinity_at_the_equator%2F16081470-1-eng-GB%2FSalinity_at_the_equator_node_full_image_2.jpg&hash=b88eae2ddeb757516407a2d3f9b4905b)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.esa.int%2Fvar%2Fesa%2Fstorage%2Fimages%2Fesa_multimedia%2Fimages%2F2016%2F07%2Feastern_pacific_fresh_pool_2010-2015%2F16081264-1-eng-GB%2FEastern_Pacific_Fresh_Pool_2010-2015_medium.gif&hash=241e603e435836712b7011c26f5ad411)

If someone wish to dive further into the output from ESA's SMOS satellite Proteus:
https://smos.argans.co.uk/ (https://smos.argans.co.uk/)

Edit; I'd like to attach the trend from SARAL and SLR in the Pacific as well. Welcome to the Anthropocene.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 30, 2016, 03:50:53 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +2.8:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Gray-Wolf on July 30, 2016, 07:29:25 PM
So it is starting to look like my 'Gut' was right and we will not see Nina develop this year ( by the 5 tri monthly period reckoning) with 3.4 now above -0.5 anom? That means it has to reverse back below -0.5 by Tuesday or Aug is also out of reckoning???

Models all seem to be pointing to 3.4 being in positive values by Feb 2017 so we will have quite a wait for any Nina to get sorted into some kind of strength to cover the 5 tri monthly trigger point?

To me PDO flipped positive over 2 years ago and so 'favours' Nino over Nina . To do this Nina's get shoved up into being Nada's and Nada's get pushed up into being Nino's so dropping Nina frequency and increasing Nino's share?

Under PDO-ve we might be in a low grade Nina by now but the PDO/IPO being positive appears to have kibosh-ed that?

Any thoughts?

Also, I know we had a big warm pool in place since 2013 ( at least 2013) and Nino must have depleted this but could we still see the repeat of a big KW event in late Jan/early Feb 2017 as we had seen previously?
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 31, 2016, 09:13:29 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +2.8 for the third day:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 01, 2016, 03:33:50 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 01, 2016, 05:28:38 PM

Per the following weekly ENSO data issued by NOAA for the week centered on July 27 2016, the Nino 3.4 index has drifted up to -0.5, while over all conditions remain neutral:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 22JUN2016     22.4-0.1     25.9-0.3     27.2-0.4     29.3 0.5
 29JUN2016     22.6 0.4     25.9-0.1     27.1-0.4     29.1 0.3
 06JUL2016     22.2 0.2     25.5-0.4     27.0-0.4     29.1 0.3
 13JUL2016     21.8 0.0     25.1-0.6     26.7-0.6     29.1 0.3
 20JUL2016     21.6 0.2     25.1-0.5     26.6-0.6     29.0 0.3
 27JUL2016     21.3 0.1     24.8-0.6     26.6-0.5     29.0 0.2

The first two images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending July 31 2016, and indicated respectively a Nino 3.4 of -0.37 and a relatively negative IOD.

The third image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Aug 1 to 8 2016, indicating conditions favorable for transitioning slowly from ENSO neutral to weakly La Nina conditions.

The fourth image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued Aug 1 2016, indicating a possible transition from neutral to slight/weak La Nina conditions.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 01, 2016, 05:31:01 PM
The four attached plot were issued today by the BoM for the week ending July 31 2016 for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices respectively.  They collectively indicate ENSO neutral conditions.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 01, 2016, 05:34:13 PM
The three attached images were all issued today by NOAA. The first two show the Eq Pac SSTA & Upper Ocean Heat Anom, evolutions, respectively; while the third image shows the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom.  Collectively they indicate ENSO neutral conditions that might possibly be trending towards weak La Nina conditions in coming months.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 02, 2016, 03:34:50 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.2:

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on August 02, 2016, 07:09:46 AM
The fourth image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued Aug 1 2016, indicating a possible transition from neutral to slight/weak La Nina conditions.
A few days back the readings at the TAO/TRITON data display indicated that -3°C anomaly increasing, while BoM's Ocean Subsurface Analyses did not. Here's the TAO/TRITON plot from 1 Aug (as of today) indicating a decrease again.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 02, 2016, 05:48:24 PM
The fourth image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued Aug 1 2016, indicating a possible transition from neutral to slight/weak La Nina conditions.
A few days back the readings at the TAO/TRITON data display indicated that -3°C anomaly increasing, while BoM's Ocean Subsurface Analyses did not. Here's the TAO/TRITON plot from 1 Aug (as of today) indicating a decrease again.

Sleepy,

Thanks for keeping us current.  The attached image issued today of CDAS's SSTA shows just how large the sea surface temp instability waves are getting along the Equatorial Pacific.  Thus we can expect signification daily/weekly fluctuations with appreciable uncertainly about long-term trends.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 03, 2016, 03:43:21 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on August 03, 2016, 04:02:14 AM
ASLR, I'm just observing. Now I'm not sure, but to me it seems like those subsurface readings are changing faster now, and if they are, it might also indicate increased subsurface mixing. If that's true, then it also supports the idea of a developing La Nina. Looking at the atmospheric response so far and where those colder surface anomalies are, we might be looking at a weak modoki. Lot's of if's and but's as usual though. :)

There's at least some support for the if's and but's in these papers:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v500/n7460/full/nature12363.html (http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v500/n7460/full/nature12363.html)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL066472/abstract (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL066472/abstract)
That last paper is also yet another that indicates that we (science) have not properly accounted for the rotational effects of this planet in the models. As I see it there are no mysteries here, it's "just" a matter of more computational power and money.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 03, 2016, 05:25:50 AM
ASLR, I'm just observing. Now I'm not sure, but to me it seems like those subsurface readings are changing faster now, and if they are, it might also indicate increased subsurface mixing. If that's true, then it also supports the idea of a developing La Nina. Looking at the atmospheric response so far and where those colder surface anomalies are, we might be looking at a weak modoki. Lot's of if's and but's as usual though. :)

There's at least some support for the if's and but's in these papers:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v500/n7460/full/nature12363.html (http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v500/n7460/full/nature12363.html)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL066472/abstract (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL066472/abstract)
That last paper is also yet another that indicates that we (science) have not properly accounted for the rotational effects of this planet in the models. As I see it there are no mysteries here, it's "just" a matter of more computational power and money.

Interesting observations (although I am not sure why signs of a developing La Nina soon would indicate that a modoki would follow); particularly as a modoki in the Spring would likely result in decreased Arctic sea ice loss in the summer of 2017 (see the following reference):


Chundi Hu, Song Yang, Qigang Wu,   Zhenning Li, Junwen Chen, Kaiqiang Deng, Tuantuan Zhang & Chengyang Zhang (02 June 2016), "Shifting El Niño inhibits summer Arctic warming and Arctic sea-ice melting over the Canada Basin", Nature Communications 7, Article number: 11721 doi:10.1038/ncomms11721


http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160602/ncomms11721/abs/ncomms11721.html (http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160602/ncomms11721/abs/ncomms11721.html)

Abstract: "Arctic climate changes include not only changes in trends and mean states but also strong interannual variations in various fields. Although it is known that tropical-extratropical teleconnection is sensitive to changes in flavours of El Niño, whether Arctic climate variability is linked to El Niño, in particular on interannual timescale, remains unclear. Here we demonstrate for the first time a long-range linkage between central Pacific (CP) El Niño and summer Arctic climate. Observations show that the CP warming related to CP El Niño events deepens the tropospheric Arctic polar vortex and strengthens the circumpolar westerly wind, thereby contributing to inhibiting summer Arctic warming and sea-ice melting. Atmospheric model experiments can generally capture the observed responses of Arctic circulation and robust surface cooling to CP El Niño forcing. We suggest that identification of the equator-Arctic teleconnection, via the ‘atmospheric bridge’, can potentially contribute to improving the skill of predicting Arctic climate."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on August 03, 2016, 07:42:15 AM
Sorry ASLR, I saw your orignal post but didn't notice the update until now.
My modoki speculation was mainly due to how the ocean and the (lack of) atmospheric response looks right now, and if a weak modoki then this year.
I've been following that study since I posted it here in early June in Reply #699 and also the extent numbers in the arctic. The CP region in the study differs and is larger than the regular Nino4 and the modoki Nina region is centered around 160°W (if I remember correctly) so I suspect they are not directly comparable. Hotlinking to the picture I posted in #699. (a) depicts the CP region.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=1454.0;attach=30474;image)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 03, 2016, 10:38:49 AM
I do not know whether the linked reference entitled "Nonlinear ENSO Warming Suppression (NEWS)
causing a La Nina-like mean-state response to global warming" is correct, or not; but it considers a possible mechanism to suppress strong El Nino events with continued global warming:

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~dennis/KH16_news_ver2.pdf (http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~dennis/KH16_news_ver2.pdf)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 04, 2016, 03:39:01 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 05, 2016, 03:26:51 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 05, 2016, 05:49:13 PM
Per the following link, the 2016 MJJ ONI value is 0.2 (which is in the neutral range):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 06, 2016, 03:27:24 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.9:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 07, 2016, 03:26:28 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.7:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 08, 2016, 12:19:38 AM
The attached plot downloaded from TAO today shows that with regards to WWV and the Nino 3.4 SSTA, our current 2015-16 event seems to more similar to the 82-83 event than the 97-98 event.  Furthermore, in 1983 an official ONI La Nina event was never declared.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 08, 2016, 03:24:07 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.5:


Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 08, 2016, 04:45:53 PM
The following weekly NOAA Nino data through the week centered on August 3 2016, indicates that the Nino 3.4 index has remained constant at -0.5; while the first two attached image issued by the BoM for the week ending August 7 2016 indicates that the Nino 3.4 index has drifted up to -0.33, while the IOD have become significantly less negative, respectively:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 29JUN2016     22.6 0.4     25.9-0.1     27.1-0.4     29.1 0.3
 06JUL2016     22.2 0.2     25.5-0.4     27.0-0.4     29.1 0.3
 13JUL2016     21.8 0.0     25.1-0.6     26.7-0.6     29.1 0.3
 20JUL2016     21.6 0.2     25.1-0.5     26.6-0.6     29.0 0.3
 27JUL2016     21.3 0.1     24.8-0.6     26.6-0.5     29.0 0.2
 03AUG2016    21.5 0.5     24.7-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1

The last two images were issued today by NOAA & show the Eq Pac Evolution for the SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively.  All of this data indicates continuing neutral ENSO conditions.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 08, 2016, 04:48:44 PM
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM showing weekly Nino information for the week ending August 7 2016, for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Collectively, these plots indicate continuing neutral ENSO conditions:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 08, 2016, 09:35:28 PM
Here are some ENSO related plots that I haven't updated in a while, with all plots issued today, Aug 8 2016:

The first image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom, indicating we are in a plateau.
The second image shows Tao's Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles; confirming that we are in a plateau.
The third image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast, indicating that the recent easterly wind burst is now dissipating.
The fourth image shows the ECMM MJO forecast from Aug 8 to 22 2016, indicating the possibility that the recent atmospheric conditions that favored developing La Nina like conditions, are likely to dissipate (thus supporting the U at Albany 850-hPa wind anom forecast).
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 09, 2016, 03:26:48 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 09, 2016, 07:23:29 PM
I do not know much about the QBO (see various posts by Sleepy & the attached image about the structure of the QBO), but as it is changing rapidly at the moment I provide  the following link to Freire Universitat – Berlin article entitled: "The Quasi-Biennial-Oscillation (QBO) Data Serie":

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/ (http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/)

Extract: "Almost 50 years ago, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of the winds in the equatorial stratosphere was detected due to the establishment of a global, regularly measuring radiosonde network (Graystone, 1959; Ebdon, 1960)."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 10, 2016, 03:25:56 AM
Per the following data issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.9:

20160710,20160808,4.9

Edit: Here is the associated plot
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on August 10, 2016, 05:06:45 AM
Found this now, finally a paper about this. And paywalled of course.  :-X

The anomalous change in the QBO in 2015-16
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL070373/abstract (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL070373/abstract)

Quote
Abstract

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a tropical lower stratospheric, downward propagating zonal wind variation, with an average period of ~28 months. The QBO has been constantly documented since 1953. Here we describe the evolution of the QBO during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015-16 using radiosonde observations and meteorological reanalyses. Normally, the QBO would show a steady downward propagation of the westerly phase. In 2015-16, there was an anomalous upward displacement of this westerly phase from ~30 hPa to 15 hPa. These westerlies impinge on, or “cut-off” the normal downward propagation of the easterly phase. In addition, easterly winds develop at 40 hPa. Comparisons to tropical wind statistics for the 1953-present record demonstrate that this 2015-16 QBO disruption is unprecedented.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on August 10, 2016, 09:52:26 AM
ECMWF's July Nino plumes.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 11, 2016, 03:25:37 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.7:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 12, 2016, 03:28:25 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +3.9:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 13, 2016, 03:25:40 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.4, and thus remains neutral:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on August 13, 2016, 07:14:22 AM
A nice graph made by Anthony Masiello. Precipitable water vapor anomalies between June 1997 to June 2016 with plotted Jan 1998 max.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 14, 2016, 03:28:16 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.9:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 15, 2016, 03:26:53 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.7:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 15, 2016, 05:22:01 PM
The following information indicates that for the past week, while remaining neutral, ENSO conditions have fluctuated towards La Nina-like conditions, as indicated by all of the Nino indices for the week centered on August 10 2016 in the following NOAA data:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 29JUN2016     22.6 0.4     25.9-0.1     27.1-0.4     29.1 0.3
 06JUL2016     22.2 0.2     25.5-0.4     27.0-0.4     29.1 0.3
 13JUL2016     21.8 0.0     25.1-0.6     26.7-0.6     29.1 0.3
 20JUL2016     21.6 0.2     25.1-0.5     26.6-0.6     29.0 0.3
 27JUL2016     21.3 0.1     24.8-0.6     26.6-0.5     29.0 0.2
 03AUG2016     21.5 0.5     24.7-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
 10AUG2016     21.0 0.1     24.5-0.7     26.3-0.6     28.6-0.1

The first two attached images were issued by the BoM thru the week ending August 14 2016 and show the Nino 3.4 at -0.43 and the IOD index becoming markedly less negative.

The third image shows the ECMM MJO forecast from August 15 to 29 2016, showing that the atmosphere now weakly favors El Nino-like conditions for the coming two weeks.

The fourth image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom thru August 15 2016, which indicates the impact of the recent strong trade winds.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 15, 2016, 05:25:37 PM
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM thru the week ending Aug 14 2016 for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, and while they are all lower than last week, they all indicate current ENSO neutral conditions:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 15, 2016, 05:35:22 PM
The first image shows the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from August 15 to 22 2016; which confirms that for the forecast period the atmosphere will weakly favor El Nino inducing conditions.

The second & third images were issued today by NOAA showing the Eq Pac Evolutions for the SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively; & both show the impacts of the recent strong trade winds.

The fourth image shows the TAO Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued August 15 2016, which indicates that the cool pool at depth is continuing to dissipate which implies that the recent down-turn in the Upper Ocean Heat Anom is due to the recent strong trade wind impact on Eq Pac SSTA.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 16, 2016, 03:25:02 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 17, 2016, 03:26:56 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 18, 2016, 03:25:12 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.9:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 19, 2016, 03:52:47 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +4.1:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Bruce Steele on August 19, 2016, 06:31:17 AM
The PDO index comes in at 1.25 for July. I would expect it to drop further as the El Niño fades .
If it goes negative I doubt it will go negative for long.
Question for AbruptSLR - 
Is there a mechanism to adjust the PDO index to the rising  SST trend in the Pacific ?  If the El Niño in the Niño34 region for three months at +.5 is adjusted over time to trend I was wondering about the PDO.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 19, 2016, 10:03:27 AM
The PDO index comes in at 1.25 for July. I would expect it to drop further as the El Niño fades .
If it goes negative I doubt it will go negative for long.
Question for AbruptSLR - 
Is there a mechanism to adjust the PDO index to the rising  SST trend in the Pacific ?  If the El Niño in the Niño34 region for three months at +.5 is adjusted over time to trend I was wondering about the PDO.

Bruce,

As the issue that you raise is a little complicated (because the PDO index is reconstructed as the superimposition of both tropical forcing and extra-tropical processes), I provide the following link to the Wikipedia article about the PDO, which notes that linear inverse modeling (LIM) can be used to account for global trends for up to 4 seasons (see the following extract):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillation



Extract: “NOAA's forecast products do not include the PDO at this time. Alexander et al., explored the prediction skill of a linear inverse modeling (LIM) method to predict the PDO, LIM assumes that the PDO can be separated into a linear deterministic component and a non-linear component represented by random fluctuations.

Much of the LIM PDO predictability arises from ENSO and the global trend rather than extra-tropical processes and is thus limited to ~4 seasons. The prediction is consistent with the seasonal footprinting mechanism in which an optimal SST structure evolves into the ENSO mature phase 6–10 months later that subsequently impacts the North Pacific Ocean SST via the atmospheric bridge.

Skills in predicting decadal PDO variability could arise from taking into account the impact of the externally forced and internally generatedPacific variability. The difference in phasing of the PDO can provide predictive power for regional climate anomalies, such as is the case for the American West's drought cycle. The Great Salt Lake of Utah, for example, follows a distinct phase of this oscillation.
Commercial climate forecasting vendors such as MW&A, utilize solar factors to predict the PDO index. This vendor also utilizes the PDO, along with other parameters to forecast drought patterns in the American West.”
Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 19, 2016, 06:11:08 PM
Further to my last post, the linked reference indicates that it would be advisable to develop a PDO Index based on heat content in the upper 300 meters of the ocean (HC300) as opposed to the traditional definition of PDO based on SST's:

Arun Kumar and Caihong Wen (2016), "An Oceanic Heat Content Based Definition for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation", Monthly Weather Review, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0080.1 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0080.1)

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0080.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0080.1)

Abstract: "Based on the variability of heat content in the upper 300 meters of the ocean (HC300), the feasibility of defining an index of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is explored. The motivation for defining PDO index on HC300 stems from the following considerations: (a) a need to accentuate lower frequency variations in the monitoring of PDO and (b) to take into account variations in the temperatures associated with the PDO that extend throughout the upper ocean (and are modulated by the seasonal cycle of mixed layer variability). It is demonstrated that HC300 based definition is better suited to encapsulate these characteristics in the PDO variability. The variability in an HC300 based definition is also contrasted with the traditional definition of the PDO based on SSTs."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 20, 2016, 03:28:45 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to +3.3:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 21, 2016, 03:23:34 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +3.7:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 22, 2016, 03:23:20 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to +3.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 22, 2016, 05:00:12 PM
Per the following data, and the first image of the Eq Pac SSTA Evolution, issued by NOAA for the week centered on Aug 17 2016; the second image issued by NOAA today of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom, and the last two images issued today by the BoM for the week ending Aug 21 2016 (for Nino 3.4 and the IOD, respectively); ENSO conditions remain neutral:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 29JUN2016     22.6 0.4     25.9-0.1     27.1-0.4     29.1 0.3
 06JUL2016     22.2 0.2     25.5-0.4     27.0-0.4     29.1 0.3
 13JUL2016     21.8 0.0     25.1-0.6     26.7-0.6     29.1 0.3
 20JUL2016     21.6 0.2     25.1-0.5     26.6-0.6     29.0 0.3
 27JUL2016     21.3 0.1     24.8-0.6     26.6-0.5     29.0 0.2
 03AUG2016     21.5 0.5     24.7-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
 10AUG2016     21.0 0.1     24.5-0.7     26.3-0.6     28.6-0.1
 17AUG2016     21.1 0.5     24.5-0.5     26.3-0.5     28.7 0.0
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 22, 2016, 05:02:13 PM
The four attached images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Aug 21 2016, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively; all indicating neutral ENSO conditions:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 23, 2016, 03:30:47 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +2.8:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 24, 2016, 03:26:18 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.3, and thus remains neutral:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 25, 2016, 03:26:02 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +2.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 26, 2016, 03:37:44 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 27, 2016, 03:28:00 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.1:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 28, 2016, 03:26:46 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.6:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 29, 2016, 03:34:23 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.1:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 29, 2016, 05:13:19 PM
The following table provides NOAA weekly Nino index values thru the week centered on August 24 2016, and shows a Nino 3.4 value of -0.6C.  However, the BoM shows a Nino 3.4 value of -0.42C, with the first two images issued by the BoM for the week ending August 28 2016, for the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, respectively.  The third image shows TAO's Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles issued Aug 29 2016, and the fourth image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom also issued on Aug 29 2016, both of which indicate that the deep cool pool of water is slowly dissipating.  Taken together this information indicates that the ENSO remains on the cool side of neutral:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 20JUL2016     21.6 0.2     25.1-0.5     26.6-0.6     29.0 0.3
 27JUL2016     21.3 0.1     24.8-0.6     26.6-0.5     29.0 0.2
 03AUG2016     21.5 0.5     24.7-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
 10AUG2016     21.0 0.1     24.5-0.7     26.3-0.6     28.6-0.1
 17AUG2016     21.1 0.5     24.5-0.5     26.3-0.5     28.7 0.0
 24AUG2016     20.8 0.2     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.6     28.6-0.1
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 29, 2016, 05:16:08 PM
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending August 28 2016, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Taken together this information indicates that the ENSO remains on the cool side of neutral.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 30, 2016, 03:16:57 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +4.9:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on August 30, 2016, 07:59:28 AM
If a La Niña will develope later this year, I'm inclined to believe it will be a "Modoki La Niña" given the current temp anomalies in the Pacific. From what I have found out, Modoki Niñas for example enhance the possibility for a wintertime positive NAO in western Europe, opposite to the EP based Niña as well as .

I've found following articles discussing Modoki La Niñas. Right now I don't have the time to dig deeper into this so I'm just put the links here for eventual further discussions depending on how the proposed weak La Niña evolves. These articles are free don't need any payment but are open:

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11434-012-5423-5 (http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11434-012-5423-5)

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JC007304/abstract (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JC007304/abstract)

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z (http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z)

Best, LMV
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 31, 2016, 04:25:09 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.4:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 01, 2016, 03:27:05 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +5.3 (and thus remains ENSO neutral):
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 02, 2016, 04:56:00 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +5.3:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 03, 2016, 03:25:46 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.8:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 04, 2016, 03:28:15 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +6.2:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 04, 2016, 08:11:05 PM
NASA on the QBO:

A Strange Thing Happened in the Stratosphere
Quote
High above Earth’s tropics, a pattern of winds changed recently in a way that scientists had never seen in more than 60 years of consistent measurements.

This disruption to the wind pattern – called the “quasi-biennial oscillation” – did not have any immediate impact on weather or climate as we experience it on Earth’s surface. But it does raise interesting questions for the NASA scientists who observed it: If a pattern holds for six decades and then suddenly changes, what caused that to happen? Will it happen again? What effects might it have?

“The quasi-biennial oscillation is the stratosphere’s Old Faithful,” said Paul Newman, Chief Scientist for Earth Sciences at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, and lead author on a new paper about the event published online in Geophysical Research Letters. “If Old Faithful stopped for a day, you’d begin to wonder about what was happening under the ground.”
...
With this disruption now documented, Newman and colleagues are currently focused on studying both its causes and potential implications. They have two hypotheses for what could have triggered it – the particularly strong El Niño in 2015-16 or the long-term trend of rising global temperatures. Newman said the scientists are conducting further research now to figure out if the event was a “black swan,” a once-in-a-generation event, or a “canary in the coal mine,” a shift with unforeseen circumstances, caused by climate change.
http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/a-strange-thing-happened-in-the-stratosphere (http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/a-strange-thing-happened-in-the-stratosphere)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 05, 2016, 03:38:58 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +6.7:

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: budmantis on September 05, 2016, 06:25:15 AM
NASA on the QBO:

A Strange Thing Happened in the Stratosphere

Sigmetnow:

What are the implications for this phenomenon or is that an unknown at this point?
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 05, 2016, 07:46:30 PM
The first two images were issued today by the BoM & show the Nino 3.4 and IOD for the week ending Sept 4 2016.  The third image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued Sept 5 2016; while the fourth image shows TAO's Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles also issued Sept 5 2016.  Taken together with the following Weekly Nino data issued by NOAA through the week centered on August 31 2016 (with a Nino 3.4 of -0.7C); this indicates that the ENSO is fluctuating about the cool side of neutral:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 27JUL2016     21.3 0.1     24.8-0.6     26.6-0.5     29.0 0.2
 03AUG2016     21.5 0.5     24.7-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
 10AUG2016     21.0 0.1     24.5-0.7     26.3-0.6     28.6-0.1
 17AUG2016     21.1 0.5     24.5-0.5     26.3-0.5     28.7 0.0
 24AUG2016     20.8 0.2     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.6     28.6-0.1
 31AUG2016     20.9 0.3     24.6-0.3     26.0-0.7     28.5-0.1
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 05, 2016, 07:48:26 PM
The four attached weekly plots were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Sept 4 2016 & show the Nino 1,2, 3 & 4, indices, respectively.  This data indicates that the ENSO continues to fluctuate on the cool side of neutral:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on September 05, 2016, 08:25:41 PM
Latest ONI value for JJA was down to -0,3.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 06, 2016, 04:20:49 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +7.2:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 07, 2016, 03:33:49 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +7.7:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 08, 2016, 03:43:45 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +6.8:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: jai mitchell on September 08, 2016, 05:16:14 PM
the NOAA ENSO diagnostic analysis has been updated reflecting new model runs that indicate a stronger neutral ENSO this year.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_sep2016/ensodisc.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_sep2016/ensodisc.shtml)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fanalysis_monitoring%2Fenso_disc_sep2016%2Ffigure7.gif&hash=d6974ac0ab4f44e6a2193f59ffa51e9c)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2016, 07:51:21 PM
CPC's @ejbecker looks at thinking behind cancelling #LaNina Watch

September 2016 ENSO update: Cooling our heels
Quote
Since the demise of the big 2015-16 El Niño in April, the tropical Pacific has been loitering around in neutral… and now forecasters think it’s likely to stay that way through the winter. For now, we’re taking down the La Niña Watch, since it no longer looks favorable for La Niña conditions to develop within the next six months.

What happened?

Over the last few months, sea surface temperature anomalies (the departure from the long-term average) in the Niño3.4 region have become more negative, which was expected.  Currently, the sea surface temperature in the Nino3.4 region is about -0.5° below the long-term average, according to the ERSSTv4 data. 

This is the La Niña threshold! However, the second step of the La Niña conditions decision process is “do you think the SST will stay below the threshold for the next several overlapping seasons?” For now, the answer to this question is “no.”

In fact, the dynamical climate models are predicting that this month’s Niño3.4 index will be the low point, and sea surface temperatures will recover to near average over the next few months. There is still a range of forecasts, but all eight of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble models expect the negative anomalies to weaken toward zero.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/september-2016-enso-update-cooling-our-heels (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/september-2016-enso-update-cooling-our-heels)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 09, 2016, 04:11:46 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI ha drifted down to +6.7:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 09, 2016, 03:42:29 PM
NASA on the QBO:

A Strange Thing Happened in the Stratosphere
[

Here is another follow-on article about Newman et al 2016's work on the QBO:

Stanley, S. (2016), Mysterious anomaly interrupts stratospheric wind pattern, Eos, 97, doi:10.1029/2016EO058557.

https://eos.org/research-spotlights/mysterious-anomaly-interrupts-stratospheric-wind-pattern?utm_source=eos&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EosBuzz090916

Extract: "The weather we experience on Earth typically occurs in the troposphere, the lowest layer of the atmosphere. But the stratosphere, which envelops the planet just above the troposphere, is home to winds of its own. In a new study, Newman et al. report an anomalous interruption in an otherwise reliable stratospheric wind pattern known as the quasi-biennial oscillation.

Each cycle of the quasi-biennial oscillation begins with strong westerly winds that flow through the stratosphere in a belt around the equator. Over the course of about 1 year, these winds gradually weaken and descend in altitude to the lower stratosphere as easterly winds replace them. These easterly winds slowly sink and weaken, too, as westerly winds return. The cycle repeats roughly once every 28 months.

The researchers plan to continue analyzing wind and temperature data to determine what caused this anomaly and what its implications may be. Their investigation will include an exploration of possible connections with the 2015–2016 El Niño and climate change."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2016, 09:13:23 PM
All of zero U.S. states were cooler than average this summer.

USA swelters through hottest summer nights in 121 years
Quote
Nights provided no relief from the heat this summer: While days were certainly hot across the USA, it was the endless parade of sultry, swampy nights that set an all-time record.

The summer of 2016 recorded hotter nights than any summer since records began in 1895, according to data released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The national average low temperature rested at a balmy 60.8 degrees, about 2.4 degrees above average, said climate scientist Jake Crouch of NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. Meteorologists define summer as the year's warmest months of June, July and August.

The reason for the nighttime swelter, especially in the East, was unusually high levels of humidity due to a persistent flow of moisture-laden air off the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean, Crouch said. Temperatures don't drop as much at night when the atmosphere is humid.

The devastating flooding in West Virginia in June, Ellicott City, Md., in July and Louisiana in August were also related to the flow of warm, humid air, Crouch said.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2016/09/08/usa-summer-climate-report/89998172/ (http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2016/09/08/usa-summer-climate-report/89998172/)


The State of the Climate Summary Information is a synopsis of the collection of national and global summaries released each month.
National Summary Information - August 2016
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/national/201608 (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/national/201608)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 10, 2016, 04:00:18 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +6.6:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on September 10, 2016, 05:43:56 PM
Strong easterly wind burst in Central Pacific coming up for next week. Dr. Mike Ventrice's hovmoller from U_Albany calls for two weeks with strong easterlies over the area from 150W to the Date Line. See the tweet from Dr. Mike Ventrice: https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/774581178242392064 (https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/774581178242392064)

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Interestingly, the cold pool at subsurface have diminished in the Central Pacific and the area with -2oC temps is more or less gone now. OTOH, the cold pool in the far Western Pacific have strengthened during the last week or so. Interestingly, a small "bridge" with marginally warmer water between the cold pool in the east and the one in west has established during the last few days.

Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 11, 2016, 03:29:58 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +7.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 12, 2016, 03:24:36 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +7.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sleepy on September 12, 2016, 08:53:04 AM
NCEI (based on ERSST) has the PDO at -0.66 for August, that's ending a streak of 23 months with positive values.
Nate Mantua (based on OISST) hasn't updated with the August values yet.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 12, 2016, 05:17:13 PM

Per the following weekly NOAA Nino data issued today thru the week centered on Sept 7 2016, all Nino values remain unchanged from last week; indicating that the ENSO remains on the cool side of neutral:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 27JUL2016     21.3 0.1     24.8-0.6     26.6-0.5     29.0 0.2
 03AUG2016     21.5 0.5     24.7-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
 10AUG2016     21.0 0.1     24.5-0.7     26.3-0.6     28.6-0.1
 17AUG2016     21.1 0.5     24.5-0.5     26.3-0.5     28.7 0.0
 24AUG2016     20.8 0.2     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.6     28.6-0.1
 31AUG2016     20.9 0.3     24.6-0.3     26.0-0.7     28.5-0.1
 07SEP2016     20.8 0.3     24.6-0.3     26.1-0.7     28.6-0.1

The first two images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Sept 11 2016, for the Nino 3.4 and IOD, respectively (which indicate that the ocean is clearly neutral while the atmosphere has hints of future La Nina tendencies).
The last two images were issued today by NOAA with the third image showing the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom (which is becoming less negative), and the fourth image showing that the Eq Pac SSTA Evolution is essentially in a neutral condition.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 12, 2016, 05:19:48 PM
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending Sept 11 2016, & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively; all of which indicate cool but neutral ENSO conditions.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on September 12, 2016, 05:32:03 PM
ASLR, wrt "hints of future La Niña tendencies", it seems like a really strong Easterly Wind Burst (EWB) has started today around the Date Line and should last for about 5 days or so.

Courtesy: U_Albany.

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Best, LMV
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 13, 2016, 03:29:25 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +8.6 (and is now about the +8.0 threshold for the first time since June 2014):
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 14, 2016, 03:25:57 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has zoomed up to +9.7:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: budmantis on September 14, 2016, 07:55:44 AM
ASLR: The SOI (southern oscillation index?) has gone up rapidly the last couple of days. From my perspective, it seems extreme, but I've only been observing this for a short time.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 15, 2016, 05:06:12 AM
ASLR: The SOI (southern oscillation index?) has gone up rapidly the last couple of days. From my perspective, it seems extreme, but I've only been observing this for a short time.

The SOI is the most volatile ENSO index because it is associated with the atmosphere (rather than the ocean).  if it stays above 8 for a few months then it means something.  In any case the 30-day moving average SOI has zipped up to +10.8:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: budmantis on September 15, 2016, 07:21:37 AM
Highest since mid-2014.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 15, 2016, 03:00:27 PM
Highest since mid-2014.

While the atmosphere may be tilting towards cooler conditions at the moment, the attached NOAA plot of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom issued Sept 15 2016; indicates that the ocean is currently leaning towards neutral conditions.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 16, 2016, 03:21:05 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has zoomed up to +11.8:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2016, 12:47:56 PM
We Don’t Know If It Will Be Sunny Next Month But We Know It’ll Be Hot All Year
By Gavin Schmidt
Quote
To summarize, some key climate statistics are easily predictable far beyond the scales at which weather forecasts are skillful. Those predictions clearly suggest an annual global temperature record in 2016 and a (relative) cooling in 2017, all while the long-term upward trends continue.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-we-dont-know-if-it-will-be-sunny-next-month-but-we-know-itll-be-hot-all-year/ (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-we-dont-know-if-it-will-be-sunny-next-month-but-we-know-itll-be-hot-all-year/)
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 18, 2016, 03:23:06 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +12.8:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2016, 07:28:48 PM
Quote
@simondonner:  Like any good horror movie, the Blob may have a sequel #climate #oceans
https://twitter.com/simondonner/status/776847157030559744
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 19, 2016, 01:23:54 AM
The linked article is entitled: "Is La Niña Here? Depends Who You Ask":

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/la-nina-forecast-winter-2016-20706 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/la-nina-forecast-winter-2016-20706)

Extract: "According to the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), La Niña has in fact arrived.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, another of the big tropical Pacific watchers, still has a La Niña watch in place, but is still waiting for its “official” arrival.
But the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration dropped its La Niña watch last week, indicating that it’s unlikely that a La Niña will form this fall or winter.
All three agencies are looking at the same ocean, but have come to different conclusions about when — or even if — La Niña is going to happen. The main reason comes down to how you define La Niña."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 19, 2016, 03:32:59 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +12.6:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 19, 2016, 04:21:39 PM
The following NOAA ENSO data issued through the week centered on Sept 14 2016, shows cool neutral conditions with the Nino 3.4 increasing slightly from -0.7 last week to -0.6C:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 10AUG2016     21.0 0.1     24.5-0.7     26.3-0.6     28.6-0.1
 17AUG2016     21.1 0.5     24.5-0.5     26.3-0.5     28.7 0.0
 24AUG2016     20.8 0.2     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.6     28.6-0.1
 31AUG2016     20.9 0.3     24.6-0.3     26.0-0.7     28.5-0.1
 07SEP2016     20.8 0.3     24.6-0.3     26.1-0.7     28.6-0.1
 14SEP2016     20.6 0.2     24.7-0.2     26.1-0.6     28.5-0.2

The first two plots were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Sept 18 2016, with the first plot showing that the Nino 3.4 drifted down to -0.52C; while the second shows the IOD remained largely unchanged.

The last two plots were issued today by NOAA, with the third showing that the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom continues to drift slowly upward, and the fourth showing the Eq Pac SSTA evolution.  All of these plots indicate continuing cool ENSO neutral conditions.
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 19, 2016, 04:24:21 PM
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM showing Nino index data thru the week ending Sept 18 2016; showing the Nino 1, 2 3 &4 indices, respectively.  All data indicates continuing cool ENSO neutral conditions:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 20, 2016, 06:56:11 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +13.0:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: Lord M Vader on September 20, 2016, 05:39:30 PM
To add ASLR's daily reports of the SOI, I notice that the Pacific is cooling down rather quickly now at subsurface. The cold pool in WPAC have strengthened. In addition, we have an easterly wind burst right now piling up warm water further west and more easterlies are under way according to latest forecast from UAlbany. See attached pics. The first shows the forecasted easterlies for the upcoming week, the second one the subsurface temperatures per September 19 while the last one shows subsurface temps per September 4. (OBS! Don't put any attention to the filename,the pics are corrct in their order. However, the filenames are not!)

--> Higher odds for La Niña!

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Best, LMV
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 21, 2016, 03:37:30 AM
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM; the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +13.5:
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 21, 2016, 03:28:23 PM
The linked Scribbler article is entitled: "Giant Gravity Waves Smashed Key Atmospheric Clock During Winter of 2016 — Possible Climate Change Link"

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/09/19/giant-gravity-waves-smashed-key-atmospheric-clock-during-winter-of-2016-possible-climate-change-link/

Extract: " …scientists believe that the quasi-biennial oscillation could become more susceptible to similar disruptions as the climate warms. — Physics.org (emphasis added)."
Title: Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 22, 2016, 04:50:54 PM