Update for the week to January 2nd
The current 5 day mean is on 12,797,800km2 while the 1 day extent is at 12,811,000km2.
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -921,490km2, an increase from -775,320km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -206,470km2, an increase from -70,13km2 last week. We're currently 2nd lowest on record, up from 4th lowest last week.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FWm1SxDf.png&hash=7bc543ea24c586e2e66833b6a13a4565)
The average daily change over the last 7 days was +33.2k/day, compared to the long term average of +54.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +52.7k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +53.8k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +51.8k/day.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FwNSmZlT.png&hash=81cf67e8e515b8720669eeaae4f68ff3)
The increase so far this January is the smallest on record. To achieve the smallest monthly gain, an increase of less than 28.1k/day is required, while the largest monthly gain requires an increase of at least 61.6k/day and an average gain requires an increase of 45.0k/day.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FwH2ivtw.png&hash=af3ead75444ee84520a86f4e84c36c1c)
The increase this December was the 18th largest on record, while the average extent was the 5th smallest on record.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FuKVQH0g.png&hash=b479d474264e55a4784949223dab0b04)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FMtWs2UP.png&hash=843e2fdd4467bec95918b66549c3a770)
We are in deep trouble ;-)
We are in deep trouble ;-)
Yes, imagine having to live through 2017 twice ;) :P :-\
The recent above freezing temperature in the Arctic obviously had a disastrous effect...
We are in deep trouble ;-)
The recent above freezing temperature in the Arctic obviously had a disastrous effect...
We are in deep trouble ;-)
The recent above freezing temperature in the Arctic obviously had a disastrous effect...
We are in deep trouble ;-)
The recent above freezing temperature in the Arctic obviously had a disastrous effect...
We are in deep trouble ;-)
Just a little side note. I think we should see these things neutrally and not make them troublesome or a gift.
some regions will suffer and others will benefit while transitions will always cause disruptions. that's how things are and have always been. further i believe that the term "manmade" even though it's correct IMO, hence valid, does as well not mean good or bad, because we are a part of nature like any other factor involved. the right attempt would be to adapt and to take measures and deal with the consequences by reducing them and/or getting them under control, but not make things evil. i for my part enjoy the ever getting warmer winters and i'm living ocean side, hence not away from it all. this topic could fill many books hence it's not easy to make a good statement in a few lines but i neither like the denialists nore the doomsday approach, that's what i tried to express with this post
The recent above freezing temperature in the Arctic obviously had a disastrous effect...
We are in deep trouble ;-)
Just a little side note. I think we should see these things neutrally and not make them troublesome or a gift.
some regions will suffer and others will benefit while transitions will always cause disruptions. that's how things are and have always been. further i believe that the term "manmade" even though it's correct IMO, hence valid, does as well not mean good or bad, because we are a part of nature like any other factor involved. the right attempt would be to adapt and to take measures and deal with the consequences by reducing them and/or getting them under control, but not make things evil. i for my part enjoy the ever getting warmer winters and i'm living ocean side, hence not away from it all. this topic could fill many books hence it's not easy to make a good statement in a few lines but i neither like the denialists nore the doomsday approach, that's what i tried to express with this post
Unfortunately, trying to maintain a warm-and-fuzzy "let's not take it so seriously" attitude will do absolutely nothing to reduce the very real and catastrophic effects, the worst of which will be felt not by ocean-side dwelling First-worlders, but by 100's of millions of developing world people. The world will not end, but from a human civilization perspective (especially those with less means to adapt) "doomsday" isn't so far from the truth.
The problem is that such complacency leads to reduced action to avert more of the worst consequences. We are already so, so far behind where we need to be . . . A strong sense of urgency is vital if our species hopes to survive in the future with anything close to the lifestyles most of us commenters are accustomed to.
Unfortunately, trying to maintain a warm-and-fuzzy "let's not take it so seriously" attitude will do absolutely nothing to reduce the very real and catastrophic effects, the worst of which will be felt not by ocean-side dwelling First-worlders, but by 100's of millions of developing world people. The world will not end, but from a human civilization perspective (especially those with less means to adapt) "doomsday" isn't so far from the truth.
The problem is that such complacency leads to reduced action to avert more of the worst consequences. We are already so, so far behind where we need to be . . . A strong sense of urgency is vital if our species hopes to survive in the future with anything close to the lifestyles most of us commenters are accustomed to.
My attempt at humor at Cryosphere's data glitches have evolved into something more serious and probably off topic but will add one response.
| CT Area: |
| 11,548,790 km2 (10 January [Day 0.0247]) |
| Up 101,416 km2 (0.89%) from previous day. |
| Up 340,602 km2 (3.03%) over past seven days (daily average: 48,657 km2). |
| Up 411,153 km2 (3.69%) for January (daily average: 41,115 km2). |
| 634,865 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 231,984 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 169,115 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 782,519 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| 1st lowest January to-date average. |
| 2nd lowest value for the date. |
| 6 days this year (60% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 4 days (40%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 0 days (0%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 10 days in total (100%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| Still awaiting an update; last available data are for 31 December. |
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 12,878,297 km2 (12 January) |
| Up 26,459 km2 (0.21%) from previous day. |
| Up 546,940 km2 (4.44%) over past seven days (daily average: 78,134 km2). |
| Up 605,222 km2 (4.95%) for January (daily average: 50,435 km2). |
| 479,279 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 71,257 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 80,763 km2 above 2015 value for this date. |
| 438,179 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| 1st lowest January to-date average. |
| 4th lowest value for the date. |
| 6 days this year (50% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 0 days (0%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 0 days (0%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 6 days in total (50%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 11,716,553 km2 (11 January [Day 0.0273]) |
| Up 167,763 km2 (1.45%) from previous day. |
| Up 484,940 km2 (4.33%) over past seven days (daily average: 69,277 km2). |
| Up 578,916 km2 (5.2%) for January (daily average: 52,629 km2). |
| 496,260 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 94,049 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 5,899 km2 above 2015 value for this date. |
| 617,279 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| 1st lowest January to-date average. |
| 3rd lowest value for the date. |
| 6 days this year (54.55% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 4 days (36.36%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 1 days (9.09%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 11 days in total (100.%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 12,909,668 km2 (15 January) |
| Up 10,029 km2 (0.08%) from previous day. |
| Up 317,411 km2 (2.52%) over past seven days (daily average: 45,344 km2). |
| Up 636,593 km2 (5.2%) for January (daily average: 42,440 km2). |
| 583,450 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 159,860 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 145,110 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 298,588 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| 1st lowest January to-date average. |
| 1st lowest value for the date. |
| 8 days this year (53.33% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 1 day (6.67%) has recorded the second lowest. |
| 1 day (6.67%) has recorded the third lowest. |
| 10 days in total (66.67%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 11,836,045 km2 (15 January [Day 0.0383]) |
| Up 33,657 km2 (0.29%) from previous day. |
| Up 492,155 km2 (4.3%) over past seven days (daily average: 70,308 km2). |
| Up 698,408 km2 (6.27%) for January (daily average: 46,561 km2). |
| 540,447 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 192,087 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 248,582 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 638,252 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| 2nd lowest January to-date average. |
| 3rd lowest value for the date. |
| 6 days this year (40.0% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 4 days (26.67%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 3 days (20.0%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 13 days in total (86.67%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
BFTV and Jim.
I would like to just thank you for your informative posts here, straightforward data that allows me to easily track the Arctic. I visit this thread daily for the updates.
BFTV and Jim.I'll echo that.
I would like to just thank you for your informative posts here, straightforward data that allows me to easily track the Arctic. I visit this thread daily for the updates.
Considering forecast weather and El Nino, I don't thing we've got much reason to expect the daily increases (40-45K/day) to significantly increase.
Considering the forecast and El Nino, I also don't think we've got much reason to expect the minimum to be any later this year than it was last year. Even if it is, I don't expect it will be significantly higher.
To that end, the implication I see is, that we will only see the equivalent of about a months worth (being generous) of expansion of the ice this year. That further implies a further increase of this year's refreeze of only about 1.25 million KM2.
Extrapolate as appropriate.
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 13,086,547 km2 (22 January) |
| Up 31,611 km2 (.24%) from previous day. |
| Up 176,879 km2 (1.37%) over past seven days (daily average: 25,268 km2). |
| Up 813,472 km2 (6.65%) for January (daily average: 36,976 km2). |
| 685,150 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 189,722 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 242,710 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 273,697 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| 1st lowest January to-date average. |
| 3rd lowest value for the date. |
| 8 days this year (36.36% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 3 days (13.64%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 6 days (27.27%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 17 days in total (77.27%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 12,113,268 km2 (22 January [Day 0.0575]) |
| Up 30,353 km2 (.25%) from previous day. |
| Up 277,223 km2 (2.33%) over past seven days (daily average: 39,603 km2). |
| Up 975,631 km2 (8.76%) for January (daily average: 44,347 km2). |
| 618,584 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 130,043 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 340,957 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 103,833 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| 2nd lowest January to-date average. |
| 3rd lowest value for the date. |
| 6 days this year (27.27% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 8 days (36.36%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 6 days (27.27%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 20 days in total (90.91%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 13,284,828 km2 (30 January) |
| Up 38,684 km2 (0.29%) from previous day. |
| Up 178,704 km2 (1.36%) over past seven days (daily average: 25,529 km2). |
| Up 1,011,753 km2 (8.27%) for January (daily average: 33,725 km2). |
| 778,258 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 217,528 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 218,745 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 168,001 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| 1st lowest January to-date average. |
| 2nd lowest value for the date. |
| 10 days this year (33.33% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 7 days (23.33%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 8 days (26.67%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 25 days in total (83.33%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 12,212,527 km2 (30 January [Day 0.0795]) |
| Up 33,503 km2 (0.28%) from previous day. |
| Up 57,597 km2 (0.47%) over past seven days (daily average: 8,228 km2). |
| Up 1,074,890 km2 (9.65%) for January (daily average: 35,830 km2). |
| 767,945 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 250,069 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 481,558 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 204,186 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| 2nd lowest January to-date average. |
| 1st lowest value for the date. |
| 9 days this year (30.0% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 9 days (30.0%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 8 days (26.67%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 26 days in total (86.67%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 13,308,481 km2 (01 February) |
| Down 8,974 km2 (-0.07%) from previous day. |
| Up 118,375 km2 (0.9%) over past seven days (daily average: 16,911 km2). |
| Down 8,974 km2 (-0.07%) for February (daily average: -8,974 km2). |
| 803,339 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 236,613 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 262,887 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 147,022 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest February to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 12 days this year (37.5% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 7 days (21.88%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 8 days (25.%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 27 days in total (84.38%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 12,236,302 km2 (31 January [Day 0.0822]) |
| Up 23,775 km2 (0.19%) from previous day. |
| Up 55,686 km2 (0.46%) over past seven days (daily average: 7,955 km2). |
| Up 1,098,665 km2 (9.86%) for January (daily average: 35,441 km2). |
| 751,005 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 240,977 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 476,764 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 197,124 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| 2nd lowest January average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 10 days this year (32.26% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 9 days (29.03%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 8 days (25.81%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 27 days in total (87.1%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 13,461,104 km2 (05 February) |
| Up 43,599 km2 (0.32%) from previous day. |
| Up 214,960 km2 (1.62%) over past seven days (daily average: 30,709 km2). |
| Up 143,649 km2 (1.17%) for February (daily average: 28,730 km2). |
| 738,264 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 167,189 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 235,189 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 78,671 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest February to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 16 days this year (44.44% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 7 days (19.44%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 8 days (22.22%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 31 days in total (86.11%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 12,328,935 km2 (04 February [Day 0.0931]) |
| Up 5,419 km2 (.04%) from previous day. |
| Up 181,593 km2 (1.49%) over past seven days (daily average: 25,942 km2). |
| Up 92,632 km2 (0.83%) for February (daily average: 23,158 km2). |
| 760,905 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 320,973 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 537,913 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 216,497 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest February to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 14 days this year (40.0% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 9 days (25.71%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 8 days (22.86%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 31 days in total (88.57%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 13,461,801 km2 (12 February) |
| Down 20,104 km2 (-.15%) from previous day. |
| Up 697 km2 (.01%) over past seven days (daily average: 100 km2). |
| Up 144,346 km2 (1.18%) for February (daily average: 12,029 km2). |
| 919,460 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 343,242 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 427,512 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 452,363 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest February to-date average. |
| 1st lowest value for the date. |
| 22 days this year (51.16% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 8 days (18.6%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 8 days (18.6%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 38 days in total (88.37%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 12,564,080 km2 (12 February [Day 0.1151]) |
| Down 120,818 km2 (-0.95%) from previous day. |
| Up 257,522 km2 (2.09%) over past seven days (daily average: 36,789 km2). |
| Up 327,778 km2 (2.94%) for February (daily average: 27,315 km2). |
| 793,522 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 208,102 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 325,344 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 67,719 km2 above 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest February to-date average. |
| 2nd lowest value for the date. |
| 17 days this year (39.53% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 10 days (23.26%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 8 days (18.6%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 35 days in total (81.4%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 13,666,867 km2 (16 February) |
| Up 45,982 km2 (0.34%) from previous day. |
| Up 54,268 km2 (0.4%) over past seven days (daily average: 7,753 km2). |
| Up 349,412 km2 (2.86%) for February (daily average: 21,838 km2). |
| 775,512 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 295,232 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 216,968 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 395,623 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest February to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 26 days this year (55.32% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 8 days (17.02%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 8 days (17.02%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 42 days in total (89.36%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 12,489,930 km2 (15 February [Day 0.1233]) |
| Down 14,343 km2 (-0.11%) from previous day. |
| Down 61,378 km2 (-0.49%) over past seven days (daily average: -8,768 km2). |
| Up 253,628 km2 (2.28%) for February (daily average: 16,909 km2). |
| 908,397 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 401,276 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 661,006 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 330,940 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest February to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 20 days this year (43.48% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 10 days (21.74%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 8 days (17.39%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 38 days in total (82.61%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 13,577,466 km2 (19 February) |
| Up 30,412 km2 (.22%) from previous day. |
| Up 115,665 km2 (.86%) over past seven days (daily average: 16,524 km2). |
| Up 260,011 km2 (2.13%) for February (daily average: 13,685 km2). |
| 920,099 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 380,170 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 212,387 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 556,069 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest February to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 29 days this year (58% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 8 days (16%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 8 days (16%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 45 days in total (90%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 12,535,747 km2 (19 February [Day 0.1343]) |
| Down 39,848 km2 (-0.32%) from previous day. |
| Down 28,334 km2 (-0.23%) over past seven days (daily average: -4,048 km2). |
| Up 299,444 km2 (2.69%) for February (daily average: 15,760 km2). |
| 1,003,220 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 489,855 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 475,693 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 450,659 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest February to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 24 days this year (48% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 10 days (20%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 8 days (16%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 42 days in total (84%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 13,593,241 km2 (22 February) |
| Up 6,256 km2 (0.05%) from previous day. |
| Down 27,644 km2 (-0.2%) over past seven days (daily average: -3,949 km2). |
| Up 275,786 km2 (2.25%) for February (daily average: 12,536 km2). |
| 949,764 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 405,065 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 307,444 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 486,113 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest February to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 32 days this year (60.38% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 8 days (15.09%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 8 days (15.09%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 48 days in total (90.57%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 12,559,461 km2 (22 February [Day 0.1425]) |
| Down 44,041 km2 (-0.35%) from previous day. |
| Up 69,530 km2 (0.56%) over past seven days (daily average: 9,933 km2). |
| Up 323,158 km2 (2.9%) for February (daily average: 14,689 km2). |
| 959,421 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 501,180 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 467,064 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 451,026 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest February to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 27 days this year (50.94% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 10 days (18.87%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 8 days (15.09%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 45 days in total (84.91%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 12,446,272 km2 (23 February [Day 0.1453]) |
| Down 113,189 km2 (-0.9%) from previous day. |
| Down 79,106 km2 (-0.63%) over past seven days (daily average: -11,301 km2). |
| Up 209,970 km2 (1.89%) for February (daily average: 9,129 km2). |
| 1,074,786 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 616,101 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 637,179 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 575,501 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
Yet another century drop for CT SIA.
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 13,867,055 km2 (26 February) |
| Down 10,139 km2 (-0.07%) from previous day. |
| Up 289,589 km2 (2.13%) over past seven days (daily average: 41,370 km2). |
| Up 549,600 km2 (4.49%) for February (daily average: 21,138 km2). |
| 731,380 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 229,226 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 61,383 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 439,112 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest February to-date average. |
| 2nd lowest value for the date. |
| 34 days this year (59.65% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 10 days (17.54%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 8 days (14.04%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 52 days in total (91.23%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 12,754,528 km2 (26 February [Day 0.1534]) |
| Up 136,190 km2 (1.08%) from previous day. |
| Up 218,781 km2 (1.74%) over past seven days (daily average: 31,254 km2). |
| Up 518,226 km2 (4.65%) for February (daily average: 19,932 km2). |
| 812,567 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 378,804 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 298,207 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 391,456 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest February to-date average. |
| 2nd lowest value for the date. |
| 30 days this year (52.63% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 11 days (19.3%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 8 days (14.04%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 49 days in total (85.96%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 13,789,796 km2 (04 March) |
| Down 34,661 km2 (-0.25%) from previous day. |
| Down 87,398 km2 (-0.63%) over past seven days (daily average: -12,485 km2). |
| Down 152,711 km2 (-1.25%) for March (daily average: -38,178 km2). |
| 879,656 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 373,808 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 100,799 km2 above 2015 value for this date. |
| 909,921 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| 2nd lowest March to-date average. |
| 2nd lowest value for the date. |
| 34 days this year (53.97% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 13 days (20.63%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 9 days (14.29%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 56 days in total (88.89%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 12,765,717 km2 (02 March [Day 0.1644]) |
| Up 25,252 km2 (0.2%) from previous day. |
| Up 319,445 km2 (2.56%) over past seven days (daily average: 45,635 km2). |
| Down 10,110 km2 (-0.09%) for March (daily average: -5,055 km2). |
| 893,046 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 418,373 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 371,306 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 544,880 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| 1st lowest March to-date average. |
| 1st lowest value for the date. |
| 32 days this year (51.61% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 14 days (22.58%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 8 days (12.9%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 54 days in total (87.1%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
<snippage>This, more than the low extent, really, really worries me.<more snippage>
893,046 km2 below 2000s average for this date. 418,373 km2 below 2010s average for this date. 371,306 km2 below 2015 value for this date. 544,880 km2 below 2012 value for this date. 1st lowest March to-date average. 1st lowest value for the date.
As sea ice area (SIA) measurements are not affected by melt ponds until sometime in May, it is probable that more sunlight has hit open water (mostly glancing off, unless the water is choppy) in the far north in recent weeks than has happened in hundreds or thousands of years. Although not a lot of solar energy is getting into the ocean at this time, I expect it is more than in recent years. A physicist among us could probably give us some numbers to consider; we would then know how significant this year's situation is.<snippage>This, more than the low extent, really, really worries me.<more snippage>
893,046 km2 below 2000s average for this date. 418,373 km2 below 2010s average for this date. 371,306 km2 below 2015 value for this date. 544,880 km2 below 2012 value for this date. 1st lowest March to-date average. 1st lowest value for the date.
At this time of the year open water looses more heat than it receives. It is warmer than the ice surface and it evaporates which the ice surface does much less, so it looses more heat than an ice surface.The key element in my mind is not the current heat loss out of open water, which will be higher.
The important question though is what does the opening now mean for the state of the ice when solar inputs are much stronger in the summer. What does it say about the state of the ice and its movements?
Another side to the evaporation which can be seen as fog in satellite images is that it decreases heat loss from ice under fog relative to ice under clear sky. It also inceases heat loss from the top of the fog layer relative to a clear atmosphere.
Not a straight answer, I am sorry, how these effects balance out I don't know.
<snippage>This, more than the low extent, really, really worries me.<more snippage>
893,046 km2 below 2000s average for this date. 418,373 km2 below 2010s average for this date. 371,306 km2 below 2015 value for this date. 544,880 km2 below 2012 value for this date. 1st lowest March to-date average. 1st lowest value for the date.
.....Are these values top of the atmosphere irradiances?
In two weeks, areas at 80N will start getting 2 kilowatt hours per square meter a day of insolation. That should be about the time energy input balances out the daily radiative loss. By the time we get to April 1st, that available energy doubles. By the time we get to May 1st, we're at 14KWH/Day/M2 of incident radiation hitting the sea surface. It only gets worse.
.....
learly, short-wave radiative fluxes into the ocean will
increase in the future due to sea ice retreat, resulting in more
open water. Our results show that there will also be a signifi-
cant increase of fluxes through the (remaining) sea ice due to
the shift to more FYI. To the extent that the FYI measurements
described here are representative for todays summer condi-
tions, FYI transmits almost three times as much light as MYI,
which is expected to have less and less coverage in the future.
Averaging over the entire Arctic with a 50/50 distribution of
FYI and MYI in 2011 (Figure S5), todays transmittanceof
solar irradiance over the entire Arctic sea ice is 0.08. Assuming
similar fractions of pond coverage and transmittance ratios
of FYI and MYI in the future, solar heat input will increase by
about 50% when the point is reached where only small frac-
tions (e.g. 10%) of the Arctic are covered with MYI during
summer
However, a potential increase of
absolute fluxes through sea ice into the upper ocean also
depends on the evolution of solar surface irradiance, which is
strongly affected by clouds
For all further studies of season-
ality more (similar) large-scale observations are necessary to
allow the generation of a transmittance seasonality for dif-
ferent ice types [Nicolaus et al, 2010b; Perovich et al. 2011].
Therefore, additional observations are suggested as
future work. This would be most beneficial between May and
July when fluxes are highly relevant for sea-ice mass balance
and primary productivity. At that time of year, the distribu-
tion of snow is particularly important in determining light
penetration and control its spatial variability
In that
respect, strongly deformed FYI is also much more similar to
MYI than level FYI. Hence, changes in sea-ice dynamics
could also impact light transmittance of future sea ice beyond
the here presented aspects.
.....Are these values top of the atmosphere irradiances?
In two weeks, areas at 80N will start getting 2 kilowatt hours per square meter a day of insolation. That should be about the time energy input balances out the daily radiative loss. By the time we get to April 1st, that available energy doubles. By the time we get to May 1st, we're at 14KWH/Day/M2 of incident radiation hitting the sea surface. It only gets worse.
.....
I found some measured surface values for 75 -80 deg north here:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006JC003558/full (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006JC003558/full)
to get kWh from MJ divide by 3.6 i.e 30MJ is 8.3kWh/ day /m2 max in June
.....Are these values top of the atmosphere irradiances?
In two weeks, areas at 80N will start getting 2 kilowatt hours per square meter a day of insolation. That should be about the time energy input balances out the daily radiative loss. By the time we get to April 1st, that available energy doubles. By the time we get to May 1st, we're at 14KWH/Day/M2 of incident radiation hitting the sea surface. It only gets worse.
.....
I found some measured surface values for 75 -80 deg north here:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006JC003558/full (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006JC003558/full)
to get kWh from MJ divide by 3.6 i.e 30MJ is 8.3kWh/ day /m2 max in June
Raw, it's about 1600W/M2 oblique at the top of the atmosphere. By the time you get down to sea level, it's about 330. You factor in the angle (about 43 degrees at 80N on Jun 21st at mid day) and I see that as around 12KWH/M2/Day. Caveat: optical calculations are not my strong suit, so if anyone can show us better numbers, I'm fine with it.
*Brain* F*rt* - *90* degrees from the pole to the equator. *90*... Nine Zero, not one hundred... :P.....Are these values top of the atmosphere irradiances?
In two weeks, areas at 80N will start getting 2 kilowatt hours per square meter a day of insolation. That should be about the time energy input balances out the daily radiative loss. By the time we get to April 1st, that available energy doubles. By the time we get to May 1st, we're at 14KWH/Day/M2 of incident radiation hitting the sea surface. It only gets worse.
.....
I found some measured surface values for 75 -80 deg north here:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006JC003558/full (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006JC003558/full)
to get kWh from MJ divide by 3.6 i.e 30MJ is 8.3kWh/ day /m2 max in June
Raw, it's about 1600W/M2 oblique at the top of the atmosphere. By the time you get down to sea level, it's about 330. You factor in the angle (about 43 degrees at 80N on Jun 21st at mid day) and I see that as around 12KWH/M2/Day. Caveat: optical calculations are not my strong suit, so if anyone can show us better numbers, I'm fine with it.
On what Planet do you live? ;D
On 21st June the max angle at 80N is only 33.4 degrees. The earth is tilted by 23.4 degrees and for 80N you just add another 10 degrees to that.
The solar constant on top of the atmosphere is on average 1365W/m2, but in June/July it is only 1321W/m2, because Earth is close to aphelion.
.....You seem to confuse scattering with absorption. Sunlight is "filtered" by the cloud droplets by scattering the incoming energy into all directions (some more than others) including downwards. That downwards scattered light is scattered again as it encounters more droplets depending on the thickness and density of the cloud.
I once created a chart which shows the distance a "light beam" has to travel through a cloud for various angles. The actual distance is of course even higher because the light gets constantly absorbed and re emitted.
....
You seem to confuse scattering with absorption. Sunlight is "filtered" by the cloud droplets by scattering the incoming energy into all directions (some more than others) including downwards. That downwards scattered light is scattered again as it encounters more droplets depending on the thickness and density of the cloud.
Diffuse light from clouds is part of the energy input at the surface, but of course that is less than would be received by direct sunlight.
Personally IMO how much radiation from sunlight the Arctic will receive this year is totally ignoring the changes that seem to be happening. Look at this chart:Completely agree, LRC. The point I've made doesn't have to do with how the Arctic was warm this winter. Rather, I'm focusing in on how early, lower extent will increase the amount of energy captured early in the melt season coming up. Compared to previous seasons, 2016 is...
<snippage>
That is all the result of a lot of heat being pumped into the Arctic via storms. I think the main culprit is the cold Blob + superheated Golf Stream setting up dipoles that spin big storms into the heart of the Atlantic side of the Arctic. Since the experts are tending to believe that with the changes in the NA, they are going to be permanent fixtures, I do not think it is going out on a limb in saying that from now on, big storms spinning into the Arctic will become a year round occurrence. If that becomes the case those storms will be the biggest decider of melt and not the sun.
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 13,858,745 km2 (07 March) |
| Up 61,752 km2 (0.45%) from previous day. |
| Down 83,762 km2 (-0.6%) over past seven days (daily average: -11,966 km2). |
| Down 83,762 km2 (-0.68%) for March (daily average: -11,966 km2). |
| 811,603 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 357,852 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 199,329 km2 above 2015 value for this date. |
| 850,341 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| 2nd lowest March to-date average. |
| 2nd lowest value for the date. |
| 34 days this year (51.52% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 16 days (24.24%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 9 days (13.64%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 59 days in total (89.39%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 12,724,465 km2 (06 March [Day 0.1753]) |
| Down 21,882 km2 (-0.17%) from previous day. |
| Down 118,621 km2 (-0.93%) over past seven days (daily average: -16,946 km2). |
| Down 51,361 km2 (-0.46%) for March (daily average: -8,560 km2). |
| 989,901 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 508,056 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 304,130 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 956,007 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest March to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 35 days this year (53.85% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 14 days (21.54%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 8 days (12.31%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 57 days in total (87.69%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 13,921,066 km2 (08 March) |
| Up 62,321 km2 (.45%) from previous day. |
| Down 3,128 km2 (-.02%) over past seven days (daily average: -447 km2). |
| Down 21,441 km2 (-.18%) for March (daily average: -2,680 km2). |
| 747,582 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 284,109 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 271,197 km2 above 2015 value for this date. |
| 685,491 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 08 March) average. |
| 2nd lowest March to-date average. |
| 2nd lowest value for the date. |
| 34 days this year (50.75% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 17 days (25.37%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 9 days (13.43%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 60 days in total (89.55%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 12,723,368 km2 (07 March [Day 0.1781]) |
| Down 1,098 km2 (-0.01%) from previous day. |
| Down 52,459 km2 (-0.41%) over past seven days (daily average: -7,494 km2). |
| Down 52,459 km2 (-0.47%) for March (daily average: -7,494 km2). |
| 995,370 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 541,114 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 284,673 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 941,751 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (Day 0.0000 - Day 0.1781) average. |
| Lowest March to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 36 days this year (54.55% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 14 days (21.21%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 8 days (12.12%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 58 days in total (87.88%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 13,855,406 km2 (10 March) |
| Down 43,077 km2 (-.31%) from previous day. |
| Up 30,949 km2 (.22%) over past seven days (daily average: 4,421 km2). |
| Down 87,101 km2 (-.71%) for March (daily average: -8,710 km2). |
| 806,501 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 306,231 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 231,638 km2 above 2015 value for this date. |
| 655,016 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 10 March) average. |
| 2nd lowest March to-date average. |
| 2nd lowest value for the date. |
| 34 days this year (49.28% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 19 days (27.54%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 9 days (13.04%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 62 days in total (89.86%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 12,754,865 km2 (09 March [Day 0.1836]) |
| Up 24,532 km2 (.19%) from previous day. |
| Down 10,852 km2 (-.09%) over past seven days (daily average: -1,550 km2). |
| Down 20,962 km2 (-.19%) for March (daily average: -2,329 km2). |
| 958,378 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 506,414 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 213,137 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 854,555 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (Day 0.0000 - Day 0.1836) average. |
| Lowest March to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 38 days this year (55.88% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 14 days (20.59%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 8 days (11.76%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 60 days in total (88.24%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 13,872,861 km2 (13 March) |
| Down 27,697 km2 (-.2%) from previous day. |
| Up 75,868 km2 (.55%) over past seven days (daily average: 10,838 km2). |
| Down 69,646 km2 (-.57%) for March (daily average: -5,357 km2). |
| 744,787 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 337,592 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 186,445 km2 above 2015 value for this date. |
| 705,035 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 13 March) average. |
| 2nd lowest March to-date average. |
| 2nd lowest value for the date. |
| 34 days this year (47.22% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 22 days (30.56%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 9 days (12.5%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 65 days in total (90.28%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 12,851,209 km2 (13 March [Day 0.1946]) |
| Up 11,456 km2 (.09%) from previous day. |
| Up 126,743 km2 (1.%) over past seven days (daily average: 18,106 km2). |
| Up 75,382 km2 (.68%) for March (daily average: 5,799 km2). |
| 804,933 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 413,859 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 143,527 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 680,341 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (Day 0.0000 - Day 0.1946) average. |
| Lowest March to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 42 days this year (58.33% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 14 days (19.44%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 8 days (11.11%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 64 days in total (88.89%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 13,874,820 km2 (15 March) |
| Up 37,813 km2 (.27%) from previous day. |
| Down 46,246 km2 (-.33%) over past seven days (daily average: -6,607 km2). |
| Down 67,687 km2 (-.55%) for March (daily average: -4,512 km2). |
| 696,999 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 373,271 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 150,382 km2 above 2015 value for this date. |
| 791,491 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 15 March) average. |
| 2nd lowest March to-date average. |
| 3rd lowest value for the date. |
| 34 days this year (45.95% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 23 days (31.08%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 10 days (13.51%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 67 days in total (90.54%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 12,859,657 km2 (14 March [Day 0.1973]) |
| Up 8,449 km2 (.07%) from previous day. |
| Up 136,290 km2 (1.07%) over past seven days (daily average: 19,470 km2). |
| Up 83,831 km2 (.75%) for March (daily average: 5,988 km2). |
| 781,672 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 420,571 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 116,133 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 660,407 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (Day 0.0000 - Day 0.1973) average. |
| Lowest March to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 43 days this year (58.9% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 14 days (19.18%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 8 days (10.96%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 65 days in total (89.04%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
Quite impressive with a possible century break already.
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 13,902,527 km2 (18 March) |
| Up 61,022 km2 (.44%) from previous day. |
| Up 31,471 km2 (.23%) over past seven days (daily average: 4,496 km2). |
| Down 39,980 km2 (-.33%) for March (daily average: -2,221 km2). |
| 627,429 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 353,406 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 194,522 km2 above 2015 value for this date. |
| 777,449 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 18 March) average. |
| 2nd lowest March to-date average. |
| 3rd lowest value for the date. |
| 34 days this year (44.16% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 23 days (29.87%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 13 days (16.88%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 70 days in total (90.91%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 12,710,984 km2 (18 March [Day 0.2083]) |
| Down 18,456 km2 (-.14%) from previous day. |
| Down 141,578 km2 (-1.1%) over past seven days (daily average: -20,225 km2). |
| Down 64,842 km2 (-.58%) for March (daily average: -3,602 km2). |
| 917,629 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 557,005 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 130,950 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 918,461 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (Day 0.0000 - Day 0.2083) average. |
| Lowest March to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 47 days this year (61.04% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 14 days (18.18%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 8 days (10.39%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 69 days in total (89.61%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 13,910,563 km2 (20 March) |
| Up 16,484 km2 (.12%) from previous day. |
| Up 37,702 km2 (.27%) over past seven days (daily average: 5,386 km2). |
| Down 31,944 km2 (-.26%) for March (daily average: -1,597 km2). |
| 579,413 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 307,768 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 204,564 km2 above 2015 value for this date. |
| 750,047 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 20 March) average. |
| 2nd lowest March to-date average. |
| 6th lowest value for the date. |
| 34 days this year (43.04% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 23 days (29.11%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 13 days (16.46%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 70 days in total (88.61%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 12,665,262 km2 (20 March [Day 0.2137]) |
| Down 20,380 km2 (-.16%) from previous day. |
| Down 185,947 km2 (-1.45%) over past seven days (daily average: -26,564 km2). |
| Down 110,564 km2 (-.99%) for March (daily average: -5,528 km2). |
| 966,433 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 591,538 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 161,749 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 1,035,412 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (Day 0.0000 - Day 0.2137) average. |
| Lowest March to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 49 days this year (62.03% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 14 days (17.72%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 8 days (10.13%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 71 days in total (89.87%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
And a bonus question - how is the difference between "slush" and solid ice determined? Is slush included in extent but not area?
I am curious about the relationship between area and extent as the seasonal melting begins. Currently, sea ice area is at a record low, and extent is not.In this example the remaining ice would still be considered 'area' so area would decrease by 40 km2 and extent could increase as you say by 300km2. However a more likely scenario is that the average coverage for the extent would be near 60% and with your assumed 40% melt there would be virtually no change in extent.
When solid sheets of ice are broken up, it is intuitively obvious that the pieces would move about, open water would separate them, and extent would increase, as would the melting rate due to the increases in the total area of ice exposed to sea water. (I am aware that the most common ice concentration cut-off point is 15%, meaning an "area" of "extent" might contain up to 85% open water.)
Therefore if a 100km2 piece of contiguous ice fractured into small bits, and 40% of it melted, a theoretical maximum extent of 400km2 could replace 100km2 of area. Would this mean that area would have decreased by100km2 and net extent could have increased by theoretical maximum of 300km2? (400km2 of new extent minus 100km2 reduction in area, which is included in extent.)
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 13,899,979 km2 (23 March) |
| Down 26,173 km2 (-.19%) from previous day. |
| Up 18,110 km2 (.13%) over past seven days (daily average: 2,587 km2). |
| Down 42,528 km2 (-.35%) for March (daily average: -1,849 km2). |
| 553,337 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 260,021 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 65,094 km2 above 2015 value for this date. |
| 670,420 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 23 March) average. |
| 2nd lowest March to-date average. |
| 5th lowest value for the date. |
| 34 days this year (41.46% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 23 days (28.05%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 13 days (15.85%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 70 days in total (85.37%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 12,808,733 km2 (23 March [Day 0.2219]) |
| Up 82,634 km2 (.65%) from previous day. |
| Up 98,375 km2 (.77%) over past seven days (daily average: 14,054 km2). |
| Up 32,906 km2 (.3%) for March (daily average: 1,431 km2). |
| 738,403 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 408,377 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 90,013 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 732,717 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (Day 0.0000 - Day 0.2219) average. |
| Lowest March to-date average. |
| 2nd lowest value for the date. |
| 51 days this year (62.2% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 15 days (18.29%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 8 days (9.76%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 74 days in total (90.24%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 13,823,186 km2 (25 March) |
| Down 38,851 km2 (-.28%) from previous day. |
| Down 79,341 km2 (-.57%) over past seven days (daily average: -11,334 km2). |
| Down 119,321 km2 (-.98%) for March (daily average: -4,773 km2). |
| 621,170 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 328,574 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 31,193 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 728,181 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 25 March) average. |
| 2nd lowest March to-date average. |
| 2nd lowest value for the date. |
| 34 days this year (40.48% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 24 days (28.57%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 13 days (15.48%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 71 days in total (84.52%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 12,830,809 km2 (25 March [Day 0.2274]) |
| Up 4,214 km2 (.03%) from previous day. |
| Up 119,824 km2 (.94%) over past seven days (daily average: 17,118 km2). |
| Up 54,982 km2 (.49%) for March (daily average: 2,199 km2). |
| 660,695 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 383,866 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 200,314 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 714,911 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (Day 0.0000 - Day 0.2274) average. |
| Lowest March to-date average. |
| 3rd lowest value for the date. |
| 51 days this year (60.71% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 15 days (17.86%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 10 days (11.9%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 76 days in total (90.48%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
The situation is a bit clearer now. Tomorrow will very likely a new max, which will be followed by a (quite certain) new max on Monday. The margins are small, but big enough to predict what CT will record.
From today's NSIDC sea ice concentration data I calculate sea ice area, in the Cryosphere Today way. Here "day" is the day that CT normally publishes that data for the Northern Hemisphere, SH and global normally follow the next day. "CT-date" is approximately the date that CT uses.
When NSIDC does not revise its concentration data (they do occasionally), my values are normally accurate withing a few k. Uncertainties are the exact algorithm for assumed concentration in the pole hole and some subtleties handling bad data.
day CT-date NH SH Global
Sat 2016.2274 +4.3 12.830855 +53.6 3.334093 +58.0 16.164948
Sun 2016.2301 +55.3 12.886181 +42.4 3.376455 +97.7 16.262636
Mon 2016.2329 +4.8 12.891012 +113.5 3.489908 +118.3 16.380920
In attached delta map, bright red (blue) indicates the concentration goes below (above) the 15% mark. Pinkish (blueish) colors when the concentration decreases (increases) by more than 7%.
If the max does occur after 2012's date will it be the latest on record?
A big century drop almost certainly ends the march to the top, and starts the race to the bottom.
A big century drop almost certainly ends the march to the top, and starts the race to the bottom.
Not latest on record... :'( ;)
A big century drop almost certainly ends the march to the top, and starts the race to the bottom.
Not latest on record... :'( ;)
True...but only by a day. ...
According to NSIDC, the latest on record is April 2,2010:
"The date of the maximum has varied considerably over the years, occurring as early as February 24 in 1996 and as late as April 2 in 2010."
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2015/03/ (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2015/03/)
It's interesting to note that, despite occurring a full 40 days after last year's maximum, 2016 nevertheless has roughly 200,000 square kilometers less area today than on the same day last year.
According to NSIDC, the latest on record is April 2,2010:
"The date of the maximum has varied considerably over the years, occurring as early as February 24 in 1996 and as late as April 2 in 2010."
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2015/03/ (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2015/03/)
Yes, but that's for NSIDC SIE. We were talking about CT SIA.It's interesting to note that, despite occurring a full 40 days after last year's maximum, 2016 nevertheless has roughly 200,000 square kilometers less area today than on the same day last year.
That's why I 'wanted' it to be latest. Lowest and latest is a cool combination, as in freaky.
Thanks for the image. Very nice.
A big century drop almost certainly ends the march to the top, and starts the race to the bottom.
From today's NSIDC sea ice concentration data I calculate sea ice area, in the Cryosphere Today way. Here "day" is the day that CT normally publishes that data for the Northern Hemisphere, SH and global normally follow the next day. "CT-date" is approximately the date that CT uses.
When NSIDC does not revise its concentration data (they do occasionally), my values are normally accurate withing a few k. Uncertainties are the exact algorithm for assumed concentration in the pole hole and some subtleties handling bad data.
day CT-date NH SH Global
Tue 2016.2356 +8.2 12.899085 +111.1 3.600973 +119.2 16.500058
Wed 2016.2384 +22.1 12.921232 +120.3 3.721245 +142.4 16.642477
Thu 2016.2411 -124.4 12.796836 +104.9 3.826190 -19.5 16.623026
In attached delta map, bright red (blue) indicates the concentration goes below (above) the 15% mark. Pinkish (blueish) colors when the concentration decreases (increases) by more than 7%.
Big drops in the Barents section and Okhotsk region.
...Another century drop brings CT-area 260k below the max, now quite certain the final one.
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 13,496,200 km2 (31 March) |
| Down 446,307 km2 (3.2%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 10,318,745 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 64,721 km2 (-.48%) from previous day. |
| Down 365,837 km2 (-2.64%) over past seven days (daily average: -52,262 km2). |
| Down 446,307 km2 (-3.65%) for March (daily average: -14,397 km2). |
| 777,590 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 566,852 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 161,940 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 1,034,607 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 31 March) average. |
| 2nd lowest March monthly average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 36 days this year (40% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 27 days (30%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (15.56%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 77 days in total (85.56%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 12,658,473 km2 (31 March [Day 0.2439]) |
| Down 262,885 km2 (2.03%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 10,424,464 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 138,455 km2 (-1.08%) from previous day. |
| Down 168,121 km2 (-1.31%) over past seven days (daily average: -24,017 km2). |
| Down 117,354 km2 (-1.05%) for March (daily average: -3,786 km2). |
| 731,603 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 567,563 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 331,673 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 1,047,931 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (Day 0.0000 - Day 0.2439) average. |
| Lowest March monthly average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 52 days this year (57.78% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 17 days (18.89%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 11 days (12.22%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 80 days in total (88.89%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
One courious thing about NSIDC Charctic graph is that it is comparing April 2, 2006 with April 1, 2016. I would say that this happens because 2016 is a leap year.
One courious thing about NSIDC Charctic graph is that it is comparing April 2, 2006 with April 1, 2016. I would say that this happens because 2016 is a leap year.
The spring equinox fell on March 20th in both 2006 and 2016. 2016's vernal equinox fell about 14 hours earlier than 2006's - so leap year should have little effect
Leap years (like 2004, 2008 and 2012) have an extra day at the end of the graph. So, on the Charctic, NSIDC compares day 92 with day 92, but it does not adjust the graph to compare April 1st., 2006 (not leap year) with April 1st., 2016 (leap year).
Edit: Being April 1st April fools, It is ok that 2006 and 2016 look even, but their are not. ;D
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 13,447,985 km2 (03 April) |
| Down 494,522 km2 (3.55%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 10,270,530 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Up 3,228 km2 (.02%) from previous day. |
| Down 352,092 km2 (-2.55%) over past seven days (daily average: -50,299 km2). |
| Down 48,215 km2 (-.39%) for April (daily average: -16,072 km2). |
| 747,246 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 540,242 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 96,810 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 1,027,163 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 03 April) average. |
| Lowest April to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 39 days this year (41.94% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 27 days (29.03%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (15.05%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 80 days in total (86.02%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 12,532,279 km2 (03 April [Day 0.2521]) |
| Down 389,079 km2 (3.01%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 10,298,270 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 58,005 km2 (-.46%) from previous day. |
| Down 358,490 km2 (-2.78%) over past seven days (daily average: -51,213 km2). |
| Down 126,194 km2 (-1.13%) for April (daily average: -42,065 km2). |
| 795,145 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 610,679 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 449,670 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 946,886 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (Day 0.0000 - Day 0.2521) average. |
| Lowest April to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 55 days this year (59.14% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 17 days (18.28%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 11 days (11.83%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 83 days in total (89.25%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 13,408,667 km2 (05 April) |
| Down 533,840 km2 (3.83%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 10,231,212 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 11,253 km2 (-.08%) from previous day. |
| Down 288,676 km2 (-2.11%) over past seven days (daily average: -41,239 km2). |
| Down 87,533 km2 (-.72%) for April (daily average: -17,507 km2). |
| 724,246 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 496,527 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 84,157 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 883,909 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 05 April) average. |
| Lowest April to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 41 days this year (43.16% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 27 days (28.42%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (14.74%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 82 days in total (86.32%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 12,490,260 km2 (05 April [Day 0.2576]) |
| Down 431,098 km2 (3.34%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 10,256,251 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 20,014 km2 (-.16%) from previous day. |
| Down 431,098 km2 (-3.37%) over past seven days (daily average: -61,585 km2). |
| Down 168,213 km2 (-1.51%) for April (daily average: -33,643 km2). |
| 807,178 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 598,135 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 354,999 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 976,908 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (Day 0.0000 - Day 0.2576) average. |
| lowest April to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 57 days this year (60% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 17 days (17.89%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 11 days (11.58%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 85 days in total (89.47%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
OSI SAF Service Message #1227
o Title :
Missing sector in OSI SAF sea ice products
o Product :
Sea Ice
o Date :
2016-04-06
o From :
MET Norway Local Manager
o Message :
The OSI SAF sea ice products distributed this morning (labelled 20160405)
have a sector of missing data due to SSMIS data outage yesterday. The data
provider (NOAA) is looking into the problem. Service message will follow
when we have more news from NOAA.
But Wip, does that mean the -360K is wrong, or is the +128K wrong? :)
o Message :
The OSI SAF sea ice products are back to nominal production today, after
the missing SSMIS data from NOAA yesterday.
In other news: IJIS extent has now shown a decrease on 16 of the past 17 days, a rare (if not unheard of) feat so close to the annual maximum...
CT SIA has released it's numbers for 0.2631, and, as Wipneus suggested, they are rather odd, showing a one-day increase of 139k, the largest jump since the second week of January, the fifth largest since last November, and--remarkably if not believably, the second largest one-day increase ever recorded in April (which itself was a correction from a one-day "drop" the day before of 396k). So, will there be an offsetting/correcting decrease reflected in the upcoming numbers? Only time will tell, but I'd put money on it...If you think that is strange you should see the latest NSIDC figures which suggest an increase of over 1.000,000 Km ^2. I think it is time to go and see a good movie and come back on Monday
In other news: IJIS extent has now shown a decrease on 16 of the past 17 days, a rare (if not unheard of) feat so close to the annual maximum...
If the SSMIS instrument on the F17 DMSP satellite is failing, are there immediate replacements?
CT SIA has released it's numbers for 0.2631, and, as Wipneus suggested, they are rather odd, showing a one-day increase of 139k, the largest jump since the second week of January, the fifth largest since last November, and--remarkably if not believably, the second largest one-day increase ever recorded in April (which itself was a correction from a one-day "drop" the day before of 396k). So, will there be an offsetting/correcting decrease reflected in the upcoming numbers? Only time will tell, but I'd put money on it...If you think that is strange you should see the latest NSIDC figures which suggest an increase of over 1.000,000 Km ^2. I think it is time to go and see a good movie and come back on Monday
In other news: IJIS extent has now shown a decrease on 16 of the past 17 days, a rare (if not unheard of) feat so close to the annual maximum...
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fforum.arctic-sea-ice.net%2Findex.php%3Faction%3Ddlattach%3Btopic%3D416.0%3Battach%3D18676%3Bimage&hash=e97ba670f4c1097ebf982b0feca72fc6)
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 13,237,712 km2 (08 April) |
| Down 704,795 km2 (5.06%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 10,060,257 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 71,544 km2 (-.54%) from previous day. |
| Down 223,544 km2 (-1.66%) over past seven days (daily average: -31,935 km2). |
| Down 258,488 km2 (-2.11%) for April (daily average: -32,311 km2). |
| 782,989 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 566,792 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 149,318 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 908,238 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 08 April) average. |
| Lowest April to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 44 days this year (44.9% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 27 days (27.55%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (14.29%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 85 days in total (86.73%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 12,504,183 km2 (08 April [Day 0.2657]) |
| Down 417,175 km2 (3.23%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 10,270,173 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 127,710 km2 (-1.01%) from previous day. |
| Down 117,257 km2 (-.93%) over past seven days (daily average: -16,751 km2). |
| Down 154,290 km2 (-1.39%) for April (daily average: -19,286 km2). |
| 705,398 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 498,895 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 255,063 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 658,947 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (Day 0.0000 - Day 0.2657) average. |
| Lowest April to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 59 days this year (60.2% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 18 days (18.37%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 11 days (11.22%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 88 days in total (89.8%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
Problems with the SSMIS data (dmsp f17) continue. In the north the Sea of Okhotsk is showing a lot of false ice. That is peanuts compared with the south, where the CT-area-like calculation is showing a massive bump of +1160k.
Problems with the SSMIS data (dmsp f17) continue. In the north the Sea of Okhotsk is showing a lot of false ice. That is peanuts compared with the south, where the CT-area-like calculation is showing a massive bump of +1160k.
IJIS:
13,151,679 km2（April 9, 2016）
"Beaufort under early pressure" from Neven's Blog
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/04/beaufort-under-early-pressure.html#more (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/04/beaufort-under-early-pressure.html#more)
| Year | Loss | Applied to current | ||
| SIE (4/10/2016) | ||||
| 2003 | 8355831 | 4795848 | ||
| 2004 | 8005542 | 5146137 | ||
| 2005 | 8455294 | 4696385 | ||
| 2006 | 7682078 | 5469601 | ||
| 2007 | 9400377 | 3751302 | ||
| 2008 | 9643704 | 3507975 | ||
| 2009 | 8960106 | 4191573 | ||
| 2010 | 9665334 | 3486345 | ||
| 2011 | 9431326 | 3720353 | ||
| 2012 | 10919546 | 2232133 | ||
| 2013 | 9184823 | 3966856 | ||
| 2014 | 8782169 | 4369510 | ||
| 2015 | 9175327 | 3976352 |
Looking at IJIS, based on the 4/10's numbers (13151679)
Average loss since 2007 inclusive between this date and mimimum is approximately (rounded to thousands) 9.421 million KM2. This gives us as a midpoint for 2016's minimum of 3.73 million KM2 - solidly 2nd lowest and flirting with 2012.
There really isn't enough data to produce sensible statistical boundaries (Standard Dev), so instead
here's what the numbers look like, subtracting annual losses from this date to minimum from IJIS' data, when applied to the current 4/10/2016 SIE. 7 out of 13 years beat 2007, and 3 would put us near or below 2012.
Year Loss Applied to current SIE (4/10/2016) 2003 8355831 4795848 2004 8005542 5146137 2005 8455294 4696385 2006 7682078 5469601 2007 9400377 3751302 2008 9643704 3507975 2009 8960106 4191573 2010 9665334 3486345 2011 9431326 3720353 2012 10919546 2232133 2013 9184823 3966856 2014 8782169 4369510 2015 9175327 3976352
o Message :
Due to the previously reported problems with one of the channels on SSMIS
onboard DMSP F17, OSI SAF is now working on replacing DMSP F17 with DMSP
F18 in our sea ice products.
Currently, the switch to F18 has been implemented for the ice concentration
product (OSI-401). The product dated 20160410 has been reprocessed and is
available on our FTP server, ftp://osisaf.met.no/prod/ice/conc/ (http://ftp://osisaf.met.no/prod/ice/conc/) and
ftp://osisaf.met.no/archive/ice/conc/2016/04 (http://ftp://osisaf.met.no/archive/ice/conc/2016/04)
The ice edge and type products (OSI-402 and OSI-403) will be updated to use
F18 tomorrow, 2016-04-12.
The ice emissivity product (OSI-404) has been temporary turned off.
Production will be upgraded to F18, with expected implementation 19th
April.
The LR ice drift product (OSI-405) does not use the channel with
calibration problems, but is affected to some extent since it uses the ice
edge product to define areas with ice. This product will be back to nominal
as soon as the ice edge product is updated.
o Comments or Extra information :
We are sorry for the inconvenience these problems might have caused. We
will report on the quality of the products with the new sensor as soon as
more data are available.
More information on www.osi-saf.org (http://www.osi-saf.org)
FYI, I've long maintained a daily graph (https://sites.google.com/site/pettitclimategraphs/sea-ice-extent#asiepts) helping to visualize these very numbers:Sorry, Jim, not meaning to undermine your contribution. Just stating possible end points.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FzXuR6ld.png&hash=86890f73790635665b10d898c418f80b)
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 13,134,117 km2 (15 April) |
| Down 808,390 km2 (5.8%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 9,956,662 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 23,553 km2 (-.18%) from previous day. |
| Down 103,595 km2 (-.78%) over past seven days (daily average: -14,799 km2). |
| Down 362,083 km2 (-2.96%) for April (daily average: -24,139 km2). |
| 586,567 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 477,945 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 221,042 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 916,413 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 15 April) average. |
| Lowest April to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 51 days this year (48.57% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 27 days (25.71%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (13.33%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 92 days in total (87.62%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 12,996,593 km2 (18 April) |
| NOTE: Earliest sub-13 million km2 reading on record. |
| Down 945,914 km2 (6.78%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 9,819,138 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 62,543 km2 (-.48%) from previous day. |
| Down 122,288 km2 (-.93%) over past seven days (daily average: -17,470 km2). |
| Down 499,607 km2 (-4.08%) for April (daily average: -27,756 km2). |
| 607,644 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 498,748 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 347,023 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 967,833 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 18 April) average. |
| Lowest April to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 54 days this year (50% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 27 days (25%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (12.96%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 95 days in total (87.96%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
Worth noting, between now and minimum in 2012, the Arctic shed 10.78 million KM2 of ice.
ADS-NIPR Extent: <<< snippage >>> 967,833 km2 below 2012 value for this date. Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 18 April) average. <<< snippage >>> 95 days in total (87.96%) have been among the lowest three on record.
The CT area anomaly seems to have gone back to pre-hiccup levels. Is there any indication when CT area accuracy will be completely repaired?
Notice (04/05/2016): Notice (04/19/2016): Daily sea ice concentration updates have improved. On 04/05/2016 a change in the solar panel position to shade the nitrogen tank on board the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F-17 satellite was made. In doing so, the integrity of the vertically polarized 37 GHz channel (37V) of the Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSMIS) was compromised. This is a primary channel used in the sea ice processing. On 04/13/16 an additional change in the solar panel position was made.This change has improved the problems we were seeing in the 37V GHz channel. The affected daily files from 04/05 – 04/13 have been removed from distribution.(Colored by NSIDC ).
NSIDC confirms that the situation has improved/restored (hat tip to Michael Yorke ):QuoteNotice (04/05/2016): Notice (04/19/2016): Daily sea ice concentration updates have improved. On 04/05/2016 a change in the solar panel position to shade the nitrogen tank on board the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F-17 satellite was made. In doing so, the integrity of the vertically polarized 37 GHz channel (37V) of the Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSMIS) was compromised. This is a primary channel used in the sea ice processing. On 04/13/16 an additional change in the solar panel position was made.This change has improved the problems we were seeing in the 37V GHz channel. The affected daily files from 04/05 – 04/13 have been removed from distribution.(Colored by NSIDC ).
https://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0081
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 12,877,955 km2 (20 April) |
| Down 1,064,552 km2 (7.64%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 9,700,500 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 50,162 km2 (-.39%) from previous day. |
| Down 301,885 km2 (-2.29%) over past seven days (daily average: -43,126 km2). |
| Down 618,245 km2 (-5.05%) for April (daily average: -30,912 km2). |
| 677,457 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 545,834 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 415,001 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 1,054,059 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 20 April) average. |
| Lowest April to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 56 days this year (50.91% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 27 days (24.55%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (12.73%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 97 days in total (88.18%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 12,125,451 km2 (20 April [Day 0.2986]) |
| Down 795,907 km2 (6.16%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 9,891,442 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 75,161 km2 (-.62%) from previous day. |
| Down 276,489 km2 (-2.48%) for April (daily average: -13,824 km2). |
| 523,272 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 450,561 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 400,946 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 888,195 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (Day 0.0000 - Day 0.2986) average. |
| Lowest April to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 61 days this year (60.4% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 19 days (18.81%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 11 days (10.89%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 91 days in total (90.1%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
Notice (04/21/2016): On 04/05/2016 a change in the solar panel position to shade the nitrogen tank on board the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F-17 satellite was made. In doing so, the integrity of the vertically polarized 37 GHz channel (37V) of the Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSMIS) was compromised. On 04/13/16 an additional change in the solar panel position was made. This change had improved the problems we were seeing in the 37V GHz channel for data from April 13 to April 19; however, on April 20, the 37V GHz channel started to produce bad data again. Thus, data from April 20 onward should not be used until further notice. The affected daily files from 04/05 – 04/13 have been removed from distribution.
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 12,747,752 km2 (22 April) |
| Down 1,194,755 km2 (8.57%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 9,570,297 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 89,382 km2 (-.7%) from previous day. |
| Down 386,365 km2 (-2.94%) over past seven days (daily average: -55,195 km2). |
| Down 748,448 km2 (-6.12%) for April (daily average: -34,020 km2). |
| 745,950 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 624,417 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 554,843 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 1,102,009 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 22 April) average. |
| Lowest April to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 58 days this year (51.79% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 27 days (24.11%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (12.5%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 99 days in total (88.39%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
CT SIA's numbers are ... setting a new annual maximum nearly 400k higher than what it was.That's the best news I've heard all year! ;D
...
1,102,009 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 12,633,672 km2 (24 April) |
| Down 1,308,835 km2 (9.39%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 9,456,217 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 48,001 km2 (-.38%) from previous day. |
| Down 425,464 km2 (-3.26%) over past seven days (daily average: -60,781 km2). |
| Down 862,528 km2 (-7.05%) for April (daily average: -35,939 km2). |
| 768,978 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 619,682 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 476,522 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 1,033,249 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 24 April) average. |
| Lowest April to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 60 days this year (52.63% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 27 days (23.68%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (12.28%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 101 days in total (88.6%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 11,817,238 km2 (24 April [Day 0.3096]) |
| Down 1,104,120 km2 (8.54%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 9,583,228 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| 724,800 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 600,173 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 513,767 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 1,113,250 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (Day 0.0000 - Day 0.3096) average. |
| Lowest April to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 63 days this year (61.17% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 19 days (18.45%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 11 days (10.68%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 93 days in total (90.29%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
If this year follows 2012's trajectory, we would be within a couple 100,000KM2 of dropping under 2 million KM2 extent and 1 million KM2 of area.
CT Area: 11,817,238 km2 (24 April [Day 0.3096]) Down 1,104,120 km2 (8.54%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. 9,583,228 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
724,800 km2 below 2000s average for this date. 600,173 km2 below 2010s average for this date. 513,767 km2 below 2015 value for this date. 1,113,250 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
If this year follows 2012's trajectory, we would be within a couple 100,000KM2 of dropping under 2 million KM2 extent and 1 million KM2 of area.
CT Area: 11,817,238 km2 (24 April [Day 0.3096]) Down 1,104,120 km2 (8.54%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. 9,583,228 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
724,800 km2 below 2000s average for this date. 600,173 km2 below 2010s average for this date. 513,767 km2 below 2015 value for this date. 1,113,250 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
Letting that sink in now.
Assuming the -128k drop in CT SIA stands--and there's no reason it shouldn't--2016 area fell below 12 million the earliest it ever has. In fact, this year's SIA fell below 12 million on the same day--0.3014--that 2012 fell below 13 million. Of course, one of the things that helped 2012 break the record was losing more than 1 million km2 over the next two weeks; it will be Very Interesting to see whether this year can maintain its huge lead...
It's strange. That ADS-NIPR JAXA SIE graph no longer appears on the front page of the ASIG, but I haven't changed anything and all the HTML is as it's supposed to be. As you can see in the comment above I can link to the image and it shows up.
Does anyone have a clue why this is? Given that the JAXA graph is one of the few that is still working properly, I'd really like to have it back on the ASIG.
Displaying on graphs page for me. (As well as here 2 posts above.)
Displaying on graphs page for me. (As well as here 2 posts above.)
Really? That's good, as it means that probably most people can see it.
But why just me? :'( ;)
It's not a browser issue, as both Chrome and Firefox aren't showing it for me. Could it be an IP issue and the Japanese have banned me because I accessed the image too often? I'm going to try and check that now (using VPN).
This must be the annual 'Neven thinks there's something wrong, but it's just his bloody Adblocker'-moment. I think this is the third time now this has happened to me. And I'm only 42.
Thanks, doogi! That did the trick!
The OSI SAF continuous reprocessed sea ice concentration offline product
(OSI-430) is back to nominal production and distribution, now with SSMIS
data from DMSP F18. Production has been rerun with SSMIS F18 data to cover
the missing dates since 13th April, and all data are available on our ftp
server ftp://osisaf.met.no/reprocessed/ice/conc-cont-reproc/v1p2/2016/03/
DMSP F17 troubles are still there (nearly a millennium jump in extent today). OSI-SAF reports that the changeover to the F18 is now complete including reprocessing of the sea ice concentration product.
F-17 is/was widely used, so many places are having difficulty. F-18 has a very bad channel at 150 GHz, but the other imaging channels seem to be ok. F-19 should be the best of the group, being the youngest, but quit providing data.
F-18: Mostly ok, but reduced volume of data. Many orbits' data not making it through.http://moregrumbinescience.blogspot.com/2016/04/2016-tough-on-sea-ice-satellites.html (http://moregrumbinescience.blogspot.com/2016/04/2016-tough-on-sea-ice-satellites.html)
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 12,413,834 km2 (28 April) |
| Down 1,528,673 km2 (10.96%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 9,236,379 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 85,164 km2 (-.68%) from previous day. |
| Down 423,300 km2 (-3.3%) over past seven days (daily average: -60,471 km2). |
| Down 1,082,366 km2 (-8.85%) for April (daily average: -38,656 km2). |
| 811,314 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 580,259 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 401,936 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 876,780 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 28 April) average. |
| Lowest April to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 64 days this year (54.24% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 27 days (22.88%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (11.86%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 105 days in total (88.98%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 11,547,403 km2 (28 April [Day 0.3206]) |
| Down 1,373,955 km2 (10.63%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 9,313,394 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 502,439 km2 (-4.51%) for April (daily average: -17,944 km2). |
| 795,909 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 587,385 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 437,383 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 1,103,418 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (Day 0.0000 - Day 0.3206) average. |
| Lowest April to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 66 days this year (62.26% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| 19 days (17.92%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 11 days (10.38%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 96 days in total (90.57%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 12,164,312 km2 (02 May) |
| Down 1,778,195 km2 (12.75%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 8,986,857 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 31,101 km2 (-.26%) from previous day. |
| Down 431,506 km2 (-3.43%) over past seven days (daily average: -61,644 km2). |
| Down 129,135 km2 (-1.06%) for May (daily average: -64,568 km2). |
| 895,110 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 606,596 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 470,584 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 849,792 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 02 May) average. |
| Lowest May to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 68 days this year (55.74% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 27 days (22.13%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (11.48%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 109 days in total (89.34%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 11,320,857 km2 (02 May [Day 0.3315]) |
| Down 1,600,501 km2 (12.39%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 9,086,848 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| 866,183 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 578,520 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 676,849 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 875,744 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (Day 0.0000 - Day 0.3315) average. |
| Lowest May to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| At least 67* days this year have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| At least 19* days have recorded the second lowest. |
| At least 11* days have recorded the third lowest. |
| At least 97* days in total have been among the lowest three on record. |
| * - Multiple days in the Cryosphere Today 2016 data are missing and/or invalid; for that reason, they are not represented in these sums. |
ADS-NIPR Extent: 109 days in total (89.34%) have been among the lowest three on record.
CT Area: 97 days in total (90.65%) have been among the lowest three on record.
ADS-NIPR Extent: 109 days in total (89.34%) have been among the lowest three on record.
CT Area: 97 days in total (90.65%) have been among the lowest three on record.
Thanks for these updates. I am just curious about the different number of days between these two data sets. Do you only have CT Area info for a subset of the year, so those 97 days constitutes a greater percentage (90.65%) of the recorded days, vs the 109 days of the Extent data (which only come up to 89.34%)?
Thanks
Note the edits to the previous post.Thanks, Jim, for the explanation.
Thanks for these updates. I am just curious about the different number of days between these two data sets.
Sea Ice Index Processing Suspended
May 3, 2016
The Sea Ice Index is typically updated every day to display yesterday’s ice extent for both hemispheres. The Index relies on data that come from the DMSP F17 satellite. However, these data have not been reliable since early April; so the NOAA@NSIDC team has not been able to update the Sea Ice Index since 31 March 2016.
Sea Ice Index processing uses an NSIDC NASA DAAC product, Near-Real-Time DMSP SSMIS Daily Polar Gridded Sea Ice Concentrations (NSIDC-0081), as input. The NSIDC DAAC has started the work needed to move to a new source for NSIDC-0081. This involves retrieving F18 and F16 satellite brightness temperatures from our data providers and then implementing parallel processing for ice concentration to determine which satellite will be best suited to continue the time series. The satellite selected will be the primary replacement for F17, but should that satellite fail, we will be able to switch to the other one without a service interruption.
An interim version of the NSIDC-0081 data stream will be used for the ASINA product, which is based on the Sea Ice Index, to continue to report on sea ice conditions. However, the Sea Ice Index processing itself will not resume until a version of NSIDC-0081 is available that is vetted by the science team. It is not known how long this will take, but we expect it will be a minimum of two months before NSIDC-0081 is updating regularly again with a new vetted source and the Sea Ice Index is processing that new input.
Users may want to explore daily arctic-wide ice extent from the NIC/NSIDC MASIE product as an alternative product for the Northern Hemisphere. The MASIE ice extent record is not consistent with that from the Sea Ice Index, however, nor is it necessarily internally consistent. See the MASIE documentation in order to gain a better understanding of how the product is created.
Malcolm Turnbulls gonna love that !!
Thanks for these updates. I am just curious about the different number of days between these two data sets.
hehe... thought the same days ago but was afraid to ask, thought i just missed an important point that would be obvious :-) thanks for asking and
thanks @Jim Pettit for the prompt and accurate explanation 8)
From NSIDC data announcements, it will take a minimum of two months (http://nsidc.org/the-drift/data-update/sea-ice-index-processing-suspended/) until sea ice concentration and sea ice index will be updating regularly again:QuoteSea Ice Index Processing Suspended
May 3, 2016
The Sea Ice Index is typically updated every day to display yesterday’s ice extent for both hemispheres. The Index relies on data that come from the DMSP F17 satellite. However, these data have not been reliable since early April; so the NOAA@NSIDC team has not been able to update the Sea Ice Index since 31 March 2016.
Sea Ice Index processing uses an NSIDC NASA DAAC product, Near-Real-Time DMSP SSMIS Daily Polar Gridded Sea Ice Concentrations (NSIDC-0081), as input. The NSIDC DAAC has started the work needed to move to a new source for NSIDC-0081. This involves retrieving F18 and F16 satellite brightness temperatures from our data providers and then implementing parallel processing for ice concentration to determine which satellite will be best suited to continue the time series. The satellite selected will be the primary replacement for F17, but should that satellite fail, we will be able to switch to the other one without a service interruption.
An interim version of the NSIDC-0081 data stream will be used for the ASINA product, which is based on the Sea Ice Index, to continue to report on sea ice conditions. However, the Sea Ice Index processing itself will not resume until a version of NSIDC-0081 is available that is vetted by the science team. It is not known how long this will take, but we expect it will be a minimum of two months before NSIDC-0081 is updating regularly again with a new vetted source and the Sea Ice Index is processing that new input.
Users may want to explore daily arctic-wide ice extent from the NIC/NSIDC MASIE product as an alternative product for the Northern Hemisphere. The MASIE ice extent record is not consistent with that from the Sea Ice Index, however, nor is it necessarily internally consistent. See the MASIE documentation in order to gain a better understanding of how the product is created.
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 12,081,393 km2 (04 May) |
| Down 1,861,114 km2 (13.35%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 8,903,938 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 63,054 km2 (-.52%) from previous day. |
| Down 417,605 km2 (-3.34%) over past seven days (daily average: -59,658 km2). |
| Down 212,054 km2 (-1.73%) for May (daily average: -53,014 km2). |
| 881,220 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 592,392 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 507,605 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 816,381 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 04 May) average. |
| Lowest May to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 70 days this year (56.45% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 27 days (21.77%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (11.29%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 111 days in total (89.52%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 11,021,056 km2 (04 May [Day 0.337]) |
| NOTE: the sea ice area data shown here may be inaccurate and subject to change or deletion. Use at your own risk. |
| Down 1,900,302 km2 (14.71%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 8,787,047 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 115,006 km2 (-1.03%) from previous day. |
| 994,026 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 661,057 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 812,250 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 979,720 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (Day 0.0000 - Day 0.337) average. |
| Lowest May to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| At least 69* days this year have recorded the lowest daily area. |
| At least 19* days have recorded the second lowest. |
| At least 11* days have recorded the third lowest. |
| At least 99* days in total have been among the lowest three on record. |
| * -Multiple days in the Cryosphere Today 2016 data are missing and/or invalid; for that reason, they are not represented in these sums. |
Dear colleague,
The Sea Ice Index has suspended processing due to unreliable input data. Sea Ice Index processing uses a NSIDC NASA DAAC product, Near-Real-Time DMSP SSMIS Daily Polar Gridded Sea Ice Concentrations (NSIDC-0081), as input. The NSIDC-0081 product utilizes data from the 37V channel of the DMSP F-17 satellite which is producing unreliable data. The last date available is 31 March 2016.
The NSIDC DAAC has started the work needed to move to a new data source for NSIDC-0081. An interim version of the NSIDC-0081 data stream will be available with the new data source, however Sea Ice Index processing will not resume until a calibrated version of NSIDC-0081 is available. For more information please see http://nsidc.org/the-drift/data-update/sea-ice-index-processing-suspended/ (http://nsidc.org/the-drift/data-update/sea-ice-index-processing-suspended/)
Access to the data and documentation is provided on the Sea Ice Index web site at: https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/ (https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/)
If you have questions, please contact NSIDC's User Services Office at nsidc@nsidc.org
Data Acknowledgements
Data authors: Fetterer, F., K. Knowles, W. Meier, and M. Savoie
Data set DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7265/N5QJ7F7W
Data center: NOAA@NSIDC (http://nsidc.org/noaa/ (http://nsidc.org/noaa/))
Sponsor: NOAA/NESDIS/NGDC and the NOAA Arctic Research Program
Best regards,
NSIDC User Services
Use at your own risk.
Down 1,900,302 km2 (14.71%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384].
8,787,047 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 115,006 km2 (-1.03%) from previous day.
994,026 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
661,057 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
812,250 km2 below 2015 value for this date.
979,720 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
CT Area:On behalf of New Scientists' Feedback page can I ask how big is that in Elephant Hides ;D
11,021,056 km2 (04 May [Day 0.337])
NOTE: the sea ice area data shown here may be inaccurate and subject to change or deletion.QuoteUse at your own risk.
Down 1,900,302 km2 (14.71%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384].
8,787,047 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 115,006 km2 (-1.03%) from previous day.
994,026 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
661,057 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
812,250 km2 below 2015 value for this date.
979,720 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
Part of Jim's data is above.
For those wanting a "visual idea". That 812,250 km2 is just under TWICE THE SIZE OF TEXAS. That's....a LOT.
CT Area:On behalf of New Scientists' Feedback page can I ask how big is that in Elephant Hides ;D
11,021,056 km2 (04 May [Day 0.337])
NOTE: the sea ice area data shown here may be inaccurate and subject to change or deletion.QuoteUse at your own risk.
Down 1,900,302 km2 (14.71%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384].
8,787,047 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 115,006 km2 (-1.03%) from previous day.
994,026 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
661,057 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
812,250 km2 below 2015 value for this date.
979,720 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
Part of Jim's data is above.
For those wanting a "visual idea". That 812,250 km2 is just under TWICE THE SIZE OF TEXAS. That's....a LOT.
812,000 km2 is about 20% bigger than Texas. But it's still a hell of a lot -- very nearly twice the size of California.
CT Area:On behalf of New Scientists' Feedback page can I ask how big is that in Elephant Hides ;D
11,021,056 km2 (04 May [Day 0.337])
NOTE: the sea ice area data shown here may be inaccurate and subject to change or deletion.QuoteUse at your own risk.
Down 1,900,302 km2 (14.71%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384].
8,787,047 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 115,006 km2 (-1.03%) from previous day.
994,026 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
661,057 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
812,250 km2 below 2015 value for this date.
979,720 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
Part of Jim's data is above.
For those wanting a "visual idea". That 812,250 km2 is just under TWICE THE SIZE OF TEXAS. That's....a LOT.
Using the formula S = -8.245 + 6.807H + 7.073FFC
(Estimation of the total surface area in Indian elephants (Elephas maximus indicus) Sreekumar / Nirmalan et al (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2316192)), it's calculated that an average pachyderm has a surface area of about 20 square meters. Thus, (812,250 km2 / 1,000,000) / 20 = 40,612,500,000, or 40.6125 billion elephants.
CT Area:On behalf of New Scientists' Feedback page can I ask how big is that in Elephant Hides ;D
11,021,056 km2 (04 May [Day 0.337])
NOTE: the sea ice area data shown here may be inaccurate and subject to change or deletion.QuoteUse at your own risk.
Down 1,900,302 km2 (14.71%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384].
8,787,047 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 115,006 km2 (-1.03%) from previous day.
994,026 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
661,057 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
812,250 km2 below 2015 value for this date.
979,720 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
Part of Jim's data is above.
For those wanting a "visual idea". That 812,250 km2 is just under TWICE THE SIZE OF TEXAS. That's....a LOT.
Using the formula S = -8.245 + 6.807H + 7.073FFC
(Estimation of the total surface area in Indian elephants (Elephas maximus indicus) Sreekumar / Nirmalan et al (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2316192)), it's calculated that an average pachyderm has a surface area of about 20 square meters. Thus, (812,250 km2 / 1,000,000) / 20 = 40,612,500,000, or 40.6125 billion elephants.
Oh sure. You use the smaller Indian elephant to exaggerate the problem. >:(
Hey, don't blame me; 'twas Sreekumar & Nirmalan who wrote the paper.They're obviously part of the dark-money Worldwide Elephant Hide Area Comparsion cabal. Bastards...
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 11,986,358 km2 (06 May) |
| NOTE: Earliest sub-12M reading by six days; ahead of ten-year average by > 13 days |
| Down 1,956,149 km2 (14.03%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 8,808,903 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 52,727 km2 (-.44%) from previous day. |
| Down 361,622 km2 (-2.93%) over past seven days (daily average: -51,660 km2). |
| Down 307,089 km2 (-2.51%) for May (daily average: -51,182 km2). |
| 871,517 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 591,431 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 438,752 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 838,282 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 06 May) average. |
| Lowest May to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 72 days this year (57.14% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 27 days (21.43%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (11.11%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 113 days in total (89.68%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
Down 1,956,149 km2 (14.03%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February.(emphases added)
Based on the IJIS record since 2003, this is the third biggest decline in the record. The two declines that were bigger, 2003 and 2004 had more than 750,000 km^2 more ice at the maximum. They declined 300 - 400K km^2 more.QuoteDown 1,956,149 km2 (14.03%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February.(emphases added)
I'm curious how this relates to other years. 2016 started from a lower place than other years, so if decline matched another year (with a similar start date, at least), 2016's extent would stay below it. But 1980 (as a random selection) started its melt season with a lot more ice, and I don't have much clue as to which year lost more ice between max and today. I believe someone else was asking about percent decline, perhaps a more meaningful guage.
We've had a lot of days in a row that were the lowest on record. What's the most consecutive "lowest IJIS extent on record" days? How many days with it take to beat that record?We're looking at it right now. We beat it every day. 2012 might be an exception, but I don't have the data in front of me. That would have been on the front end rather than back end - after we'd passed other years heading towards the minimum. Even then, I doubt it made 90+ days worth.
In the period leading up to 2007 long record runs were commonplace in IJIS because of the very short record. 2007 had 132 continuous record breaking days from Jul 3rd.We've had a lot of days in a row that were the lowest on record. What's the most consecutive "lowest IJIS extent on record" days? How many days with it take to beat that record?We're looking at it right now. We beat it every day. 2012 might be an exception, but I don't have the data in front of me. That would have been on the front end rather than back end - after we'd passed other years heading towards the minimum. Even then, I doubt it made 90+ days worth.
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 11,633,343 km2 (10 May) |
| Down 2,309,164 km2 (16.56%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 8,455,888 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 49,817 km2 (-.43%) from previous day. |
| Down 511,104 km2 (-4.21%) over past seven days (daily average: -73,015 km2). |
| Down 660,104 km2 (-5.4%) for May (daily average: -66,010 km2). |
| 1,022,807 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 687,388 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 479,473 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 1,039,956 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 10 May) average. |
| Lowest May to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 76 days this year (58.46% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 27 days (20.77%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (10.77%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 117 days in total (90.%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
Unfortunately neither NSIDC publishes real time sea ice extent nor does CT appear to have switched to the preliminary F18 sea ice concentration data.
If CT would have, I could have reported a -180k drop is expected for coming Friday.:
Unfortunately neither NSIDC publishes real time sea ice extent nor does CT appear to have switched to the preliminary F18 sea ice concentration data.
If CT would have, I could have reported a -180k drop is expected for coming Friday.:
You should be hire by CT, NSIDC or other, Wipneus. You are doing better work than them!
If CT would have, I could have reported a -180k drop is expected for coming Friday.:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Mon 2016.3479 -75.3 10.917531 +95.8 7.285143 +20.5 18.202674
Tue 2016.3507 -11.6 10.905968 +45.0 7.330120 +33.4 18.236088
Wed 2016.3534 -35.6 10.870406 +79.9 7.410037 +44.4 18.280443
Thu 2016.3562 -39.3 10.831096 +143.9 7.553953 +104.6 18.385049
Fri 2016.3589 -181.9 10.649181 +42.4 7.596343 -139.5 18.245524
If CT would have, I could have reported a -180k drop is expected for coming Friday.:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Mon 2016.3479 -75.3 10.917531 +95.8 7.285143 +20.5 18.202674
Tue 2016.3507 -11.6 10.905968 +45.0 7.330120 +33.4 18.236088
Wed 2016.3534 -35.6 10.870406 +79.9 7.410037 +44.4 18.280443
Thu 2016.3562 -39.3 10.831096 +143.9 7.553953 +104.6 18.385049
Fri 2016.3589 -181.9 10.649181 +42.4 7.596343 -139.5 18.245524
Do you have calculated CT area values for all of April until today available for download? I'm working on some Albedo calculations which are based on CT data and the sensor error screws the current year over. I would really appricate it if you could provide the daily area values. Then I can post the results here on the forum before CT switches to F18 in a few weeks or months.
I can't switch to AMSR2 because they don't have any data before 2012.
The Chukchi apparent drop in concentration travels forward into the interior (recovery in the wake).
Virtual CT area report:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Tue 2016.3507 -11.6 10.905968 +45.0 7.330120 +33.4 18.236088
Wed 2016.3534 -35.6 10.870406 +79.9 7.410037 +44.4 18.280443
Thu 2016.3562 -39.3 10.831096 +143.9 7.553953 +104.6 18.385049
Fri 2016.3589 -182.2 10.648849 +42.4 7.596343 -139.9 18.245192
Sat 2016.3616 -162.6 10.486256 +52.7 7.649043 -109.9 18.135299
The attached delta map shows that yesterday's concentration drop is today's recovery.
Wonderful work you do.
The attached delta map shows that yesterday's concentration drop is today's recovery.
Does this seem odd? I don't remember seeing such pronounced behaviour but maybe I wasn't paying appropriate attention to notice and it is normal? Could there be some calibration adjustments required with new sensor to reduce such overshoot behaviour?
Or is what is happening just unusual for this early in season and this somehow causes such swings? or some other explanation?
Probably rather difficult to answer without a lot of time and data which we don't yet have with new sensor, so sorry for asking so soon. Asking for any gut feelings might also be too early a question to ask so I hope you don't mind me canvassing any views there might be.
Wonderful work you do.
The attached delta map shows that yesterday's concentration drop is today's recovery.
Does this seem odd? I don't remember seeing such pronounced behaviour but maybe I wasn't paying appropriate attention to notice and it is normal? Could there be some calibration adjustments required with new sensor to reduce such overshoot behaviour? Or is what is happening just unusual for this early in season and this somehow causes such swings? or some other explanation?
Probably rather difficult to answer without a lot of time and data which we don't yet have with new sensor, so sorry for asking so soon. Asking for any gut feelings might also be too early a question to ask so I hope you don't mind me canvassing any views there might be.
Wipneus,
I should have asked this here, and not in the melting season thread.
If possible and if it is not too much to ask, could you also make an updated CAPIE chart to show how this year is doing as compared to previous years? Generally, Neven does that, but just like arctic ice, he has disappeared from this forum lately ( ;D).
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 11,262,361 km2 (15 May) |
| Down 2,680,146 km2 (19.22%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 8,084,906 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 31,365 km2 (-.28%) from previous day. |
| Down 519,805 km2 (-4.41%) over past seven days (daily average: -74,258 km2). |
| Down 1,031,086 km2 (-8.43%) for May (daily average: -68,739 km2). |
| 1,166,219 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 773,876 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 604,920 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 1,107,042 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 15 May) average. |
| Lowest May to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 81 days this year (60% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 27 days (20%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (10.37%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 122 days in total (90.37%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area*: |
| 10,448,430 km2 (15 May [Day 0.3671]) |
| Down 2,472,928 km2 (19.14%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 8,214,421 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Up 29,855 km2 (.29%) from previous day. |
| Down 469,101 km2 (-4.3%) over past seven days (daily average: -67,014 km2). |
| Down 768,902 km2 (-6.9%) for May (daily average: -51,260 km2). |
| 1,047,044 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 628,854 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 665,033 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 906,254 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (Day 0.0000 - Day 0.3671) average. |
| Lowest May to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| * -Due to ongoing satellite issues, multiple days in the Cryosphere Today 2016 dataset are missing and/or invalid; for that reason, these numbers include Wipneus's calculated area numbers instead of the actual published numbers |
The scary part is that it is the 3rd largest drop and at the same time the lowest extent we have ever had. Put the 2 together and by percentages the Arctic is dropping very fast.
The extent drop so far this May is the 3rd largest on record. To achieve the largest monthly loss, a drop of at least 63.3k/day is required, while the smallest loss requires an increase of at least 13.4k/day and an average loss requires a drop of 23.5k/day.
I don't know anything about the concept of hysteresis so tried to use it over at skeptical science and quickly got told there is, as yet, no hysteresis as regards the discussion of the worlds sea ice at the moment but the concept does have a valid place when discussing land ice.The scary part is that it is the 3rd largest drop and at the same time the lowest extent we have ever had. Put the 2 together and by percentages the Arctic is dropping very fast.
The extent drop so far this May is the 3rd largest on record. To achieve the largest monthly loss, a drop of at least 63.3k/day is required, while the smallest loss requires an increase of at least 13.4k/day and an average loss requires a drop of 23.5k/day.
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 11,144,719 km2 (17 May) |
| Down 2,797,788 km2 (20.07%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 7,967,264 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 53,190 km2 (-.47%) from previous day. |
| Down 488,624 km2 (-4.2%) over past seven days (daily average: -69,803 km2). |
| Down 1,148,728 km2 (-9.39%) for May (daily average: -67,572 km2). |
| 1,188,821 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 777,532 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 606,845 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 1,033,524 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 17 May) average. |
| Lowest May to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 83 days this year (60.58% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 27 days (19.71%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (10.22%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 124 days in total (90.51%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area*: |
| 10,287,978 km2 (18 May [Day 0.3754]) |
| Down 2,633,380 km2 (20.38%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 8,053,969 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 33,266 km2 (-.32%) from previous day. |
| Down 543,118 km2 (-5.1%) over past seven days (daily average: -77,588 km2). |
| Down 929,354 km2 (-8.34%) for May (daily average: -51,631 km2). |
| 1,029,512 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 599,767 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 568,373 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 782,051 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| * - Due to ongoing satellite issues, multiple days in the Cryosphere Today 2016 data are missing and/or invalid; for that reason, this table incorporates sea ice area figures as calculated by Wipneus using NSIDC's numbers. |
..typos?
..typos?
Where?
..typos?
Where?
Shouldn't the 5 day mean be at least 100k higher than the most recent extent?
Thanks. I sure didn't see that in the curve :o
Wipneus,
I'm sure that I speak on behalf of the ASIB/ASIF community if I want to THANK YOU for the marvelous work you are doing.
Due to the F-17 issues, many of the regular sea ice information sources are disfunctional, which leaves your data as a crucial source of information of what is going on during this epic melting season.
Especially the AMSR2 regional graphs that you produce on the arctischepinguin site are essential, as and the 'shadow' CT area and 'shadow' NSIDC area and extent info are just phenomenal.
Just one question : Do you have a graph (or a data file) for the 'shadow' CT area and 'shadow' NSIDC area and extent ?
That might be helpful, although in retrospect the charts are obviously too smooth to be anything else.
What I meant to say is that - even knowing it's a 5 day average - it's hard to see what daily values would have to be in order to give the chart and the stats at the same time.
I'm still not understanding what prompted the original "typos?" posting though.
Wipneus,+1
I'm sure that I speak on behalf of the ASIB/ASIF community if I want to THANK YOU for the marvelous work you are doing.
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 10,880,319 km2 (23 May) |
| Down 3,062,188 km2 (21.96%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 7,702,864 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 43,644 km2 (-.4%) from previous day. |
| Down 317,590 km2 (-2.84%) over past seven days (daily average: -45,370 km2). |
| Down 1,413,128 km2 (-11.55%) for May (daily average: -61,440 km2). |
| 1,126,654 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 708,050 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 436,128 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 1,007,308 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 23 May) average. |
| Lowest May to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 89 days this year (62.24% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 27 days (18.88%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (9.79%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 130 days in total (90.91%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 9,896,835 km2 (24 May [Day 0.3917]) |
| Down 3,024,523 km2 (23.41%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 7,662,826 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 94,437 km2 (-.95%) from previous day. |
| Down 424,409 km2 (-4.13%) over past seven days (daily average: -60,630 km2). |
| Down 1,320,497 km2 (-11.86%) for May (daily average: -55,021 km2). |
| 1,010,888 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 603,686 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 583,022 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 736,273 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| * - Due to ongoing satellite issues, multiple days in the Cryosphere Today 2016 data are missing and/or invalid; for that reason, this table incorporates sea ice area figures as calculated by Wipneus using NSIDC's numbers. |
Sub-9 million km^2 by June 1st? Maybe? That would be insane.Reasonable assumptions, but I will be very surprised if we pass 10 million km2 by June 1. If similar weather continues in June, we could easily see over 2.5 million km2 of melt in both June and July, and potentially almost 2 million in August. It's going to be about the momentum - additional heat picked up early amplifying later melt.
Even at 9.5 mil by June 1st, we gotta figure:
*June is good for a 2.5 mil drop.
*July is good for a 2.5 mil drop.
*August is good for a 1.5 mil drop.
That would already bring us down to 2.5 million km^2 for Sept. 1st.
We are already at 9.77M KM2...Sub-9 million km^2 by June 1st? Maybe? That would be insane.Reasonable assumptions, but I will be very surprised if we pass 10 million km2 by June 1. If similar weather continues in June, we could easily see over 2.5 million km2 of melt in both June and July, and potentially almost 2 million in August. It's going to be about the momentum - additional heat picked up early amplifying later melt.
Even at 9.5 mil by June 1st, we gotta figure:
*June is good for a 2.5 mil drop.
*July is good for a 2.5 mil drop.
*August is good for a 1.5 mil drop.
That would already bring us down to 2.5 million km^2 for Sept. 1st.
ADS-NPR extent is at 10.8 as shown above. What measure are we looking at?We are already at 9.77M KM2...Sub-9 million km^2 by June 1st? Maybe? That would be insane.Reasonable assumptions, but I will be very surprised if we pass 10 million km2 by June 1. If similar weather continues in June, we could easily see over 2.5 million km2 of melt in both June and July, and potentially almost 2 million in August. It's going to be about the momentum - additional heat picked up early amplifying later melt.
Even at 9.5 mil by June 1st, we gotta figure:
*June is good for a 2.5 mil drop.
*July is good for a 2.5 mil drop.
*August is good for a 1.5 mil drop.
That would already bring us down to 2.5 million km^2 for Sept. 1st.
Sub-9 million km^2 by June 1st? Maybe? That would be insane.Average melt over the last 10 years to June 1st is 665K km^2 taking area to 9.1 M.
Even at 9.5 mil by June 1st, we gotta figure:
*June is good for a 2.5 mil drop.
*July is good for a 2.5 mil drop.
*August is good for a 1.5 mil drop.
That would already bring us down to 2.5 million km^2 for Sept. 1st.
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 10,792,665 km2 (24 May) |
| Down 3,149,842 km2 (22.59%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 7,615,210 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 87,654 km2 (-.81%) from previous day. |
| Down 352,054 km2 (-3.16%) over past seven days (daily average: -50,293 km2). |
| Down 1,500,782 km2 (-12.27%) for May (daily average: -62,533 km2). |
| 1,165,979 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 737,015 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 482,997 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 1,053,737 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 24 May) average. |
| Lowest May to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 90 days this year (62.5% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 27 days (18.75%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (9.72%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 131 days in total (90.97%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 9,776,938 km2 (25 May [Day 0.3945]) |
| Down 3,144,420 km2 (24.34%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 7,542,929 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 119,866 km2 (-1.21%) from previous day. |
| Down 511,040 km2 (-5.%) over past seven days (daily average: -73,006 km2). |
| Down 1,440,394 km2 (-12.93%) for May (daily average: -57,616 km2). |
| 1,043,275 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 670,951 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 707,050 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 822,586 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (Day 0.0000 - Day 0.3945) average. |
| Lowest May to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| * - Due to ongoing satellite issues, multiple days in the Cryosphere Today 2016 dataset are missing and/or invalid; for that reason, this table incorporates sea ice area figures as calculated by Wipneus using NSIDC's numbers. (Thanks, Wipneus!) |
Down 3,149,842 km2 (22.59%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February
One way to look at 2016 is this: We have burned through 3.15 million square kilometers of ice so far this year. What is the amount of ice that we had burned through in 2012 (from peak ice that year to this date)?
I can "kind of eyeball" it on a chart....and it looks like we have burned through more ice (maybe about 500,000 more 2K). But Jim....if you DO have the numbers.....I would be curious to know: The absolute square kilometers burned through for 2012 from peak to May 25th of that year.
We know that 2016 is 1.054 million square kilometers below 2012.....but 2012 started at a much higher winter maximum (eyeballing it.....maybe 500,000 above the 2016 maximum).
2012 extent topped out at 14,709,086 km2 on 7 March
2016 extent topped out at 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February
Difference: 766,579 km2
So: very similar loss per day numbers, with the slight edge to 2016. Which doesn't sound too astounding until one considers that 2012 likely had more "easy" ice to lose in the first place.
FWIW, 2012 hit its first (and perhaps steepest) "cliff" on 5 June; that kicked off a ten-day spree of decrease that averaged 119k per day, and included seven consecutive century drops. It'll be interesting to see, then, how much of the current 2012-2016 spread disappears over the next three weeks. Some? Most? All?
2012 didn't really have much more easy ice to lose than 2016. It did have a lot more ice in the Pacific but most of that was gone by June 1.
FWIW, 2012 hit its first (and perhaps steepest) "cliff" on 5 June; that kicked off a ten-day spree of decrease that averaged 119k per day, and included seven consecutive century drops. It'll be interesting to see, then, how much of the current 2012-2016 spread disappears over the next three weeks. Some? Most? All?
snip
snip
Don't ask questions that aren't tied directly to sea ice area and extent data in this thread. Ask in the buoy thread.
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 10,652,073 km2 (26 May) |
| Down 3,290,434 km2 (23.6%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 7,474,618 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 52,880 km2 (-.49%) from previous day. |
| Down 389,153 km2 (-3.52%) over past seven days (daily average: -55,593 km2). |
| Down 1,641,374 km2 (-13.42%) for May (daily average: -63,130 km2). |
| 1,220,829 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 763,419 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 529,970 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 1,090,443 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 26 May) average. |
| Lowest May to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 92 days this year (63.01% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 27 days (18.49%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (9.59%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 133 days in total (91.1%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 9,647,368 km2 (27 May [Day 0.4000]) |
| Down 3,273,990 km2 (25.34%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 7,413,359 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 66,128 km2 (-.68%) from previous day. |
| Down 495,169 km2 (-4.91%) over past seven days (daily average: -70,738 km2). |
| Down 1,569,964 km2 (-14.1%) for May (daily average: -58,147 km2). |
| 1,074,362 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 669,775 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 656,014 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 786,521 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| NOTE: due to the prolonged absence of official CT sea ice area data, I'm instead using Wipneus' calculated area numbers. The official numbers will be inserted if/when available. In the meantime, thanks, Wipneus! |
1,090,443 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
..., will there be the June drop due the melt ponds this year too, now that CT is having issues? Is it seen in the Wipneus' numbers of area?
..., will there be the June drop due the melt ponds this year too, now that CT is having issues? Is it seen in the Wipneus' numbers of area?
Shadow CT will show it if the new satellite calibration is aligned by then. Home brew shows a much smaller melt pond effect.
Thank you much, Wipneus, for your continued updates on area and extent.
One quick question : In your daily maps, there are signs of losses and gains in areas that clearly do not have any more ice. Like in the Baltic, St. Lawrence, and around [edit] Sakhalin Island.
Are these artifacts of the methods used, and do they affect the area and extent estimates you report ?
Correct, you may have a look at this oneedit: sorry put my own ords in the quote box!
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S003442571200017X (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S003442571200017X)Tying this to the observations in the posts above, it is very likely that some changes in the microwave signal as the burst of warm, moist air passed through were temporary, some persisted. What they actually represent on the ground is probably impossible to say with certainty.
The exit to Fram doesn't seem to be too fast for the moment :If anything it looks almost completely stalled, especially the last week or so... It's just sitting in the straight, melting...
It is easier to see with the thickness map :
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif)
It is normal, the Beaufort gyre is attracting the whole Arctic ice, that does happen in cycle, some release, some stall (depends of the winds also). if we want the ice to be preserved, it'd better stay there, once passed the Fram, it is chao bye bye the ice... well that was before when the Atlantic wasn't in the Arctic. Now that it is in, I think the melting is going on, we are not seeing it yet clearly at Svalbard level but it is. Let's look at it !A bit off topic, the Atlantic flow circulation is abetted by having Bering Strait open.
Update for the week to May 28th
... while the smallest loss requires an increase of at least 323.6k/day (>865k/day with single day values) ...
The extent drop so far this May is the 2nd largest on record. To achieve the largest monthly loss, a drop of at least 110.0k/day is required (requiring >218k/day with with daily values) . . .BFTV - This new specificity regarding the 5-day averages vs. the daily values definitely helps me understand which values you are providing - thanks!
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FBQSZyRt.png&hash=afc8ae55d05901d4f99bc23d7be2b5af)
| CT Area: |
| 9,353,630 km2 (01 June [Day 0.4137]) |
| Down 3,567,728 km2 (27.61%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 7,119,621 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 77,424 km2 (-.82%) from previous day. |
| Down 423,676 km2 (-4.36%) over past seven days (daily average: -60,525 km2). |
| Down 77,424 km2 (-.7%) for June (daily average: -77,424 km2). |
| 1,056,625 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 678,820 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 687,360 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 586,594 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| NOTE: due to the prolonged absence of official CT sea ice area data, I'm instead using Wipneus' calculated area numbers in places. The official numbers will be inserted if/when available. In the meantime, thanks, Wipneus! |
Tomorrow I expect to report the first of the month numbers, in June this guarantees big drops as lots of false ice will be masked out. Looking at the numbers I expect 80-150k of extra extent loss.
The average daily drop from May 31st to June 1st is 138k. These range from small 24k drop in 1987 to a max drop of 244k in 1990.I think the number given in espens thread for june 1 was very low: sub 30k.
Only one drop in the last 27 years was small enough to prevent 2016 from being below 11 million km2 on June 1st.
I think the number given in espens thread for june 1 was very low: sub 30k.
The preceding few days were circa 50k so I suppose this is almost typical pause-like behaviour which seems to be normal at this exact time as seen by my grossly amatuer involvement thus far!
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 10,405,086 km2 (01 June) |
| Down 3,537,421 km2 (25.37%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 7,227,631 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 21,958 km2 (-.21%) from previous day. |
| Down 299,867 km2 (-2.8%) over past seven days (daily average: -42,838 km2). |
| Down 21,958 km2 (-.18%) for June (daily average: -21,958 km2). |
| 1,218,364 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 717,414 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 440,699 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 1,038,112 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 01 June) average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 98 days this year (64.47% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 27 days (17.76%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (9.21%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 139 days in total (91.45%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 9,322,383 km2 (02 June [Day 0.4164]) |
| Down 3,598,975 km2 (27.85%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 7,088,374 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 31,845 km2 (-.34%) from previous day. |
| Down 391,113 km2 (-4.05%) over past seven days (daily average: -55,873 km2). |
| Down 108,671 km2 (-.98%) for June (daily average: -54,335 km2). |
| 1,032,736 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 643,823 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 750,309 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 556,003 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| * - NOTE: due to the prolonged absence of official CT sea ice area data, I've incorporated Wipneus' area numbers as calculated from NSIDC data. The official numbers will be inserted if/when available. In the meantime, thanks, Wipneus! |
"those drops are caused by the first of the month effect."
How can there be any blue on the Great Lakes - that is, ice growth between May 31 and June 1 if a mask now prevents false ice showing up there. Just to make sure - there is no ice on the Great Lakes now, right? (I know there was some ice on Lake Superior until June 5 or 6, 2014.)
"those drops are caused by the first of the month effect."
How can there be any blue on the Great Lakes - that is, ice growth between May 31 and June 1 if a mask now prevents false ice showing up there. Just to make sure - there is no ice on the Great Lakes now, right? (I know there was some ice on Lake Superior until June 5 or 6, 2014.)
A repeat seems in order about lake ice.
CT-area and NSIDC extent are based on the same data, available as NSIDC gridded sea ice concentration data.
NSIDC does not include in its calculation ice detected in lakes, so there is no need to filter that says "No lake ice in July". In the ocean it _is_ filtered, so there will be "No ice in St. Lawrence" for example.
CT-area does include lake ice and also does not filter anything unless NSIDC has filtered it already.
This is only one of the deficiencies (my judgement) of the CT-area figures. But is a popular measure so I add some additional information about it. That is report it timely, summarize the regional deviations and note obvious "false" changes, like (dis)appearance of "lake ice".
Thanks. Is the following correct?
NSIDC: always a lake mask (regardless of what the blue/red change maps show) Seashore masks change each month (but you don't know what they are by looking at the blue/red change maps)
CT: never a lake or sea mask (therefore responsive to data that shows up on the blue/red change maps)
Wipneus,
Is the F18 data available for last year?
if so you could get a feel for how accurate is by running last years data through your algorithm, and comparing the the F17 data previously used.
Wipneus,No. The only dates for which I have parallel measurements are from 1st of April to the beginning of
Is the F18 data available for last year?
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 10,354,257 km2 (04 June) |
| Down 3,588,250 km2 (25.74%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 7,176,802 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Up 3,537 km2 (.03%) from previous day. |
| Down 223,174 km2 (-2.11%) over past seven days (daily average: -31,882 km2). |
| Down 72,787 km2 (-.59%) for June (daily average: -18,197 km2). |
| 1,129,707 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 646,031 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 334,711 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 998,455 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 04 June) average. |
| Lowest June to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 101 days this year (65.16% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 27 days (17.42%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (9.03%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 142 days in total (91.61%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 9,046,261 km2 (05 June [Day 0.4247]) |
| Down 3,875,097 km2 (29.99%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 6,812,252 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 97,340 km2 (-1.06%) from previous day. |
| Down 480,473 km2 (-5.06%) over past seven days (daily average: -68,639 km2). |
| Down 384,793 km2 (-3.45%) for June (daily average: -76,959 km2). |
| 1,044,391 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 644,823 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 765,090 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 709,884 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| * - NOTE: due to the prolonged absence of official CT sea ice area data, I've incorporated Wipneus' area numbers as calculated from NSIDC data. The official numbers will be inserted if/when available. In the meantime, thanks, Wipneus! |
Shadow CT-area report (based on F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data, we don't know if it is calibrated):
day CT-date NH SH Global
Sat 2016.4192 -22.0 9.300101 +160.8 9.359640 +138.8 18.659741
Sun 2016.4219 -156.5 9.143601 +100.7 9.460318 -55.8 18.603919
Mon 2016.4247 -97.3 9.046325 +199.8 9.660105 +102.5 18.706430
Tue 2016.4274 -71.5 8.974781 +51.3 9.711412 -20.2 18.686193
Thanks. That's now the earliest SIA has been below 9 million km2. But by just five days; I predict that 2016's area will drop (rise?) to second place behind 2012 within the next two weeks (say, June 20).The most likely date is June 16th, which is when the 2012 plummet finishes. After that 2012 flatlines for 4 days then drops at a pretty average rate for the rest of the month.
day CT-date NH SH Global
Sun 2016.4219 -156.5 9.143601 +100.7 9.460318 -55.8 18.603919
Mon 2016.4247 -97.3 9.046325 +199.8 9.660105 +102.5 18.706430
Tue 2016.4274 -71.5 8.974842 +51.3 9.711446 -20.1 18.686288
Wed 2016.4301 -41.3 8.933579 +148.2 9.859658 +106.9 18.793237
day CT-date NH SH Global
Sun 2016.4219 -156.5 9.143601 +100.7 9.460318 -55.8 18.603919
Mon 2016.4247 -97.3 9.046325 +199.8 9.660105 +102.5 18.706430
Tue 2016.4274 -71.5 8.974842 +51.3 9.711446 -20.1 18.686288
Wed 2016.4301 -41.3 8.933579 +148.2 9.859658 +106.9 18.793237
And where is current increase in area?
day CT-date NH SH Global
Sun 2016.4219 -156.5 9.143601 +100.7 9.460318 -55.8 18.603919
Mon 2016.4247 -97.3 9.046325 +199.8 9.660105 +102.5 18.706430
Tue 2016.4274 -71.5 8.974842 +51.3 9.711446 -20.1 18.686288
Wed 2016.4301 -41.3 8.933579 +148.2 9.859658 +106.9 18.793237
And where is current increase in area?
You're probably thinking of the increase in extent. You can check the IJIS thread for more detail on that.
the question is legit after reading the below linked post from this morning where he stated that extend & area
increased. thought the same but was sure it will be explained eventually :-) let's see
the question is legit after reading the below linked post from this morning where he stated that extend & area
increased. thought the same but was sure it will be explained eventually :-) let's see
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg79320.html#msg79320 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg79320.html#msg79320)
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 10,333,107 km2 (06 June) |
| Down 3,609,400 km2 (25.89%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 7,155,652 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 20,208 km2 (-.2%) from previous day. |
| Down 147,583 km2 (-1.41%) over past seven days (daily average: -21,083 km2). |
| Down 93,937 km2 (-.77%) for June (daily average: -15,656 km2). |
| 1,057,538 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 544,120 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 256,229 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 838,662 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 06 June) average. |
| Lowest June to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 103 days this year (65.61% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 27 days (17.2%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (8.92%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 144 days in total (91.72%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 8,933,579 km2 (07 June [Day 0.4302]) |
| Down 3,987,779 km2 (30.86%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 6,699,570 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 41,263 km2 (-.46%) from previous day. |
| Down 497,475 km2 (-5.32%) over past seven days (daily average: -71,068 km2). |
| Down 497,475 km2 (-4.47%) for June (daily average: -71,068 km2). |
| 1,048,994 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 617,765 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 666,829 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 728,143 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| * - NOTE: due to the prolonged absence of official CT sea ice area data, I've incorporated Wipneus' area numbers as calculated from NSIDC data. The official numbers will be inserted if/when available. In the meantime, thanks, Wipneus! |
With temps 80N+ at 0+ the earliest on record per DMI
Shadow NSIDC extent is 10.8434 (-26.7k). Kara did a larger drop (-42k), but extent in Baffin increased (+13k).
In the attached delta map, notice the dark colors in the Canadian Archipelago on the one side and in ESS/Laptev on the other side.
... and amazingly weird. The best explanation I have is draining melt ponds.
FWIW, yesterday's century increase is the largest June one-day rise since 2011, and only the fourth ever in the satellite record.
... and amazingly weird. The best explanation I have is draining melt ponds.
FWIW, yesterday's century increase is the largest June one-day rise since 2011, and only the fourth ever in the satellite record.
... and amazingly weird. The best explanation I have is draining melt ponds.
FWIW, yesterday's century increase is the largest June one-day rise since 2011, and only the fourth ever in the satellite record.
Or melt pond refreeze in the CAB?
Here is the shadow CT-area report (based on F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data, we don't know if it is calibrated):
day CT-date NH
Sat 2016.4384 -136.4 8.695805
Sun 2016.4411 -146.0 8.549799
Mon 2016.4438 +100.3 8.650090
Tue 2016.4466 -81.6 8.568522
This marks the first time in 103 days--since 12 February--that 2016 SIA has been above 2012. It's also the first time in 55 days that 2016 SIA has been in any position besides first. Among other factoids: even if 2016 were to precisely follow 2012's daily trajectory from now until mid-September--complete with the remainder of that year's steep June cliff and the GAC, etc.--it still wouldn't set a record.How is it a factoid that a year behind another year wouldn't beat that year if it had the same drop as that year? That is common sense.
How is it a factoid that a year behind another year wouldn't beat that year if it had the same drop as that year? That is common sense.
I think the rhetoric re: optimism is LOLworthy and both models and satellite show massive heat into the Arctic through D10. IMO, the false area drops and rises are a sign that the main pack is now being pre-conditioned. Meanwhile, the peripheral seas are about to start falling apart.
You are not stating a helpful fact, it is like saying if you start at 2 you can count quicker to 10 than if you start at 1 -- duh... not insightful whatsoever and does not further discourse, esp. when, IMO, you seem to be minimizing the impacts of the melt this yr.How is it a factoid that a year behind another year wouldn't beat that year if it had the same drop as that year? That is common sense.
Not sure I follow you. A "factoid" is a trivial bit of information. Do you use an alternate definition of the term?I think the rhetoric re: optimism is LOLworthy and both models and satellite show massive heat into the Arctic through D10. IMO, the false area drops and rises are a sign that the main pack is now being pre-conditioned. Meanwhile, the peripheral seas are about to start falling apart.
You're missing the point. I'm merely stating facts and figures. For me to say that following 2012's daily behavior from here on would not result in beating that year's record minimum is neither "rhetoric" nor "optimism"; it's just telling it like it is. As to whether it's "LOLworthy" I'll leave up to the individual; I guess some people are just more easily amused. ;)
sometimes it's important to consider the exact order of the events. the statement you criticize was the REPLY after someone questioned a post that simply stated obvious facts, like a color blind questioning that i see green and then when i say; but you're color blind, someone else would say, but that's not nice [shake head]The elderly have destroyed this planet with no regard for young people. Baby boomers may single handedly rank amongst the devastating events this planet has ever experienced. So I don't think that automatically kow-towing to someone bc they are older and probably uninformed is sensible, but that is just me.
it's certainly never wrong to state the obvious and it's certainly legit to get a bit annoyed if people who don't think before they write are starting to question the obvious in a, to a certain degree, condescending manner.
and then if someone is known to provide perfect and valuable information for all of us it's perhaps one more good reason to read and consider very carefully before shooting away. at least my generation was raised to way to show a bit of extra respect towards the elderly (more experienced) members of a society.
over and out
The elderly have destroyed this planet with no regard for young people. Baby boomers may single handedly rank amongst the devastating events this planet has ever experienced. So I don't think that automatically kow-towing to someone bc they are older and probably uninformed is sensible, but that is just me.After saying that posts based on feelings should be banned you go and vomit this out... why don't you ban yourself?
...
Maybe if Baby Boomers hadn't been so blindly selfish we wouldn't be witnessing what's about to unfold. No matter, but most definite proof that age does not automatically merit respect.
That is not a feeling it is a factThe elderly have destroyed this planet with no regard for young people. Baby boomers may single handedly rank amongst the devastating events this planet has ever experienced. So I don't think that automatically kow-towing to someone bc they are older and probably uninformed is sensible, but that is just me.After saying that posts based on feelings should be banned you go and vomit this out... why don't you ban yourself?
...
Maybe if Baby Boomers hadn't been so blindly selfish we wouldn't be witnessing what's about to unfold. No matter, but most definite proof that age does not automatically merit respect.
over and out
That is not a feeling it is a fact
The elderly have destroyed this planet with no regard for young people.
This marks the first time in 103 days--since 12 February--that 2016 SIA has been above 2012.... if 2016 were to precisely follow 2012's daily trajectory from now until mid-September--complete with the remainder of that year's steep June cliff...(Averages below are based on the past 10 years)
Although it will be hard for 2016 to keep pace with 2012 for area over the next 5 days, an average decline over the next 8 will see 2016 ahead again.
Both IJIS and NSIDC extent are well below 2012 levels and will probably not be caught for some time.
Thu 2016.4521 ... 8.519380
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 10,054,193 km2 (14 June) |
| Down 3,888,314 km2 (27.89%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 6,876,738 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 46,444 km2 (-.46%) from previous day. |
| Down 243,619 km2 (-2.37%) over past seven days (daily average: -34,803 km2). |
| Down 372,851 km2 (-3.05%) for June (daily average: -26,632 km2). |
| 963,085 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 329,237 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 283,058 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 110,925 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| 1st lowest year-to-date (01 January - 14 June) average. |
| 1st lowest June to-date average. |
| 1st lowest value for the date. |
| 111 days this year (67.27% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 27 days (16.36%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (8.48%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 152 days in total (92.12%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 8,519,380 km2 (15 June [Day 0.452]) |
| Down 4,401,978 km2 (34.07%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 6,285,371 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 57,010 km2 (-.66%) from previous day. |
| Down 370,061 km2 (-4.19%) over past seven days (daily average: -52,866 km2). |
| Down 911,674 km2 (-8.19%) for June (daily average: -60,778 km2). |
| 905,640 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 280,799 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 467,061 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 315,435 km2 above 2012 value for this date. |
| 2nd lowest value for the date. |
| At least 138* days in total have been among the lowest three on record. |
| * - NOTE: due to the prolonged absence of official CT sea ice area data, I've incorporated Wipneus' area numbers as calculated from NSIDC data. The official numbers will be inserted if/when available. In the meantime, thanks, Wipneus! |
After investigating the difference in ice extent as the algorithm tie points were varied, it was found that the current F17 tie points provided the best match in sea ice extent for the overlap period, so no adjustment in algorithm parameters was needed for F18.
Sun 2016.4603 ... 8.234949
The attached delta map shows it all, in particular the decline of the ice around Svalbard.
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 9,636,570 km2 (20 June) |
| Down 4,305,937 km2 (30.88%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 6,459,115 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 94,616 km2 (-.97%) from previous day. |
| Down 464,067 km2 (-4.59%) over past seven days (daily average: -66,295 km2). |
| Down 790,474 km2 (-6.46%) for June (daily average: -39,524 km2). |
| 994,222 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 358,238 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 450,395 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 169,199 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 20 June) average. |
| Lowest June to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 117 days this year (68.42% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 27 days (15.79%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (8.19%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 158 days in total (92.4%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 7,906,922 km2 (21 June [Day 0.4685]) |
| Down 5,014,436 km2 (38.81%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 5,672,913 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 107,887 km2 (-1.35%) from previous day. |
| Down 669,468 km2 (-7.86%) over past seven days (daily average: -95,638 km2). |
| Down 1,524,132 km2 (-13.68%) for June (daily average: -72,578 km2). |
| 863,838 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 199,990 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 262,042 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 168,662 km2 above 2012 value for this date. |
| 2nd lowest value for the date. |
| * - NOTE: due to the prolonged absence of official CT sea ice area data, I've incorporated Wipneus' area numbers as calculated from NSIDC data. The official numbers will be inserted if/when available. In the meantime, thanks, Wipneus! |
here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
Thu 2016.4712 ... 7.829501
Area keeps dropping making good speed.
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Wed 2016.4685 -109.9 7.904862 +182.0 11.437148 +72.0 19.342010
Thu 2016.4712 -75.1 7.829714 +50.3 11.487430 -24.9 19.317144
Fri 2016.4740 -137.3 7.692412 -36.4 11.451015 -173.7 19.143427
Sat 2016.4767 -174.0 7.518434 +52.2 11.503208 -121.8 19.021642
CAB (-79k), ESS (-35k) and Chukchi (-31k) are the heavy lifters here. The CAA increased area by +24k.
Shadow NSIDC ended at 10.4544 a drop of -153.8k. Kara (-38k), Hudson (-30k), Barents (-24k) and Chukchi (-22k) declined most.
The attached delta map shows where the damage is done. Or just a wet surface after rain of course.
Something seems a little off, Wipneus.
The shadow NSIDC was at 10.0219 on yesterdays update, but 10.4544 today?
A shadow CT area fall of over 850 000 sq km in 7 days and over 1 million in the last 10 .
Maintaining similar losses would leave an ice -free Arctic before the end of the melt season . At the rate of losses of the last 2 days we would have no ice to follow in only 25 days !
I am not expecting ice-free but most certainly a major North Pole Hole seems very likely and very news worthy when it happens ..
As we have seen recently, these large area drops in the middle of the pack do not mean the ice is gone, just that its top is wet/ponded. In a couple of days some of these drops might be reversed.
...idk how people are confusing the gaping fissures that span from Siberia to Canada with melt ponds but it seems like half the people here have blinders on to what is ongoing.A shadow CT area fall of over 850 000 sq km in 7 days and over 1 million in the last 10 .
Maintaining similar losses would leave an ice -free Arctic before the end of the melt season . At the rate of losses of the last 2 days we would have no ice to follow in only 25 days !
I am not expecting ice-free but most certainly a major North Pole Hole seems very likely and very news worthy when it happens ..
As we have seen recently, these large area drops in the middle of the pack do not mean the ice is gone, just that its top is wet/ponded. In a couple of days some of these drops might be reversed. Of course the ice has suffered in the meantime, but still it's risky to simply extrapolate these numbers.
| ADS-NIPR (IJIS) Extent: |
| 9,331,851 km2 (24 June) |
| Down 4,610,656 km2 (33.07%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 6,154,396 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 93,778 km2 (-.99%) from previous day. |
| Down 538,872 km2 (-5.46%) over past seven days (daily average: -76,982 km2). |
| Down 1,095,193 km2 (-8.95%) for June (daily average: -45,633 km2). |
| 1,018,402 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 366,591 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 584,955 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 229,431 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 24 June) average. |
| Lowest June to-date average. |
| Lowest value for the date. |
| 121 days this year (69.14% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 27 days (15.43%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (8.%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 162 days in total (92.57%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 7,502,533 km2 (25 June [Day 0.4795]) |
| Down 5,418,825 km2 (41.94%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 5,268,524 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 16,151 km2 (-.21%) from previous day. |
| Down 732,571 km2 (-9.03%) over past seven days (daily average: -104,653 km2). |
| Down 1,928,521 km2 (-17.32%) for June (daily average: -77,141 km2). |
| 887,920 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 253,103 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 454,608 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 131,304 km2 above 2012 value for this date. |
| 3rd lowest value for the date. |
| * - NOTE: due to the prolonged absence of official CT sea ice area data, I've incorporated Wipneus' area numbers as calculated from NSIDC data. The official numbers will be inserted if/when available. In the meantime, thanks, Wipneus! |
Century extent drop. Area takes it slow.
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Fri 2016.4740 -137.3 7.692412 -36.4 11.451015 -173.7 19.143427
Sat 2016.4767 -173.7 7.518684 +51.9 11.502902 -121.8 19.021586
Sun 2016.4795 -16.1 7.502592 +24.3 11.527170 +8.2 19.029762
Mon 2016.4822 -27.3 7.475246 +12.0 11.539198 -15.3 19.014444
Century extent drop. Area takes it slow.
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Fri 2016.4740 -137.3 7.692412 -36.4 11.451015 -173.7 19.143427
Sat 2016.4767 -173.7 7.518684 +51.9 11.502902 -121.8 19.021586
Sun 2016.4795 -16.1 7.502592 +24.3 11.527170 +8.2 19.029762
Mon 2016.4822 -27.3 7.475246 +12.0 11.539198 -15.3 19.014444
And just like that, SIA drops back to 4th place (behind 2010, 2012, and 2007), and out of the top three for the first time since March. And with both 2007 and 2012 losing around a million km2 over the next eight-day stretch, 2016 will have to really turn on the heat to stay close to the front of the pack.
Since 2016 is a leap year, it depends on whether you're comparing by date, or by day of the year.
2007.4795 -1.5666438 7.5740676 9.1407118 (same date)
2007.4822 -1.5840672 7.4571447 9.0412121 (same day number)
Neither method is 100% "fair" . . .
Tue 2016.4849 ... 7.306147
Since 2016 is a leap year, it depends on whether you're comparing by date, or by day of the year.>:( >:(..such is the errata of all measurement : oh woe is the meaning of smallish beer!
2007.4795 -1.5666438 7.5740676 9.1407118 (same date)
2007.4822 -1.5840672 7.4571447 9.0412121 (same day number)
Neither method is 100% "fair" . . .
NOAA@NSIDC to Release Sea Ice Index Version 2 Next Week
June 28, 2016
An improved version of the Sea Ice Index is coming. On Wednesday, 6 July 2016, Sea Ice Index Version 2 will be released. It will look and act the same as Version 1, but will have updated processing code and will use a new version of the input data. Because of these updates, minor changes in some of the ice extent and area numbers will be seen. These will be clearly described in the documentation, which will also be updated on 6 July.
We are alerting users to this impending update because file names will change. Any scripts that automatically download Sea Ice Index data each day will need to be updated to reflect this file name change. The new file names will have a “_v2” appended to the end of the file name such as N_04_area_v2.txt and N_04_plot_v2.png.
QuoteIt could be very significant, eg if the new code does a better job at removing false coastal ice.
I doubt this. But I heard that OSI SAF have implemented the method of Maaß and Kaleschke (2010). However, not sure if it is already in their operational product.
Maaß, N., L. Kaleschke, Improving passive microwave sea ice concentration algorithms for coastal areas - Applications to the Baltic Sea, Tellus A, Volume 62, Issue 4, Pages: 393–410, 2010
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 8,973,708 km2 (30 June) |
| Down 4,968,799 km2 (35.64%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 5,796,253 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 60,021 km2 (-.66%) from previous day. |
| Down 451,921 km2 (-4.79%) over past seven days (daily average: -64,560 km2). |
| Down 1,453,336 km2 (-11.88%) for June (daily average: -48,445 km2). |
| 932,493 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 189,709 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 508,608 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 66,203 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 30 June) average. |
| Lowest June average. |
| 2nd lowest value for the date. |
| 124 days this year (68.51% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 30 days (16.57%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (7.73%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 168 days in total (92.82%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 7,049,632 km2 (01 July [Day 0.4958]) |
| Down 5,871,726 km2 (45.44%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 4,815,623 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 44,636 km2 (-.63%) from previous day. |
| Down 469,052 km2 (-6.25%) over past seven days (daily average: -67,007 km2). |
| Down 44,636 km2 (-.4%) for July (daily average: -44,636 km2). |
| 707,717 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 71,009 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 370,134 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 436,899 km2 above 2012 value for this date. |
| 4th lowest value for the date. |
| * - NOTE: due to the prolonged absence of official CT sea ice area data, I've incorporated Wipneus' area numbers as calculated from NSIDC data. The official numbers will be inserted if/when available. In the meantime, thanks, Wipneus! |
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
Sun 2016.4986 ... 6.945792
WOW, a double century break by monday! 8)
...Thanks, Jim. Perspective is always helpful!
Didn't gain much, though; Day 0.5014 has been, historically, the day each year with the highest average daily area decrease. In fact, 10 out of the past 20 Day 5014s have seen a double century area loss, while the average decrease for the day over the past 30 years has been 184k km2. At any rate, both 2012 and 2014 lost more, so 2016 is now in 5th place for only the fifth time this year, and the first time since early February. The leaders: 2012, 2007, 2010, and, in fourth place, 2011.
WOW, a double century break by monday! 8)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FqZ3Dh7z.png&hash=0bea84611c2f4c5c160ffd36d7dec1b6)The last graph is interesting if June has always been considered a 'stalling month' for ice loss!
The last graph is interesting if June has always been considered a 'stalling month' for ice loss!
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Sun 2016.4986 -103.7 6.945783 +22.4 11.919443 -81.3 18.865226
Mon 2016.5014 -202.6 6.743183 -1.7 11.917756 -204.3 18.660939
Tue 2016.5041 -132.8 6.610378 -43.0 11.874765 -175.8 18.485143
Wed 2016.5068 -125.4 6.484964 -46.9 11.827910 -172.3 18.312874
Fourth century in a row, supported by CAB (-57k), Hudson (-38k) and CAA (-26k). ESS went up by +17k.
Shadow NSIDC extent is 9.0479 dropping -62.8k. Hudson (-32k) and Kara (-29k) lost most.
In the attached delta image the drop in concentration north of Ellesmere is noticeable.
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Sun 2016.4986 -103.7 6.945783 +22.4 11.919443 -81.3 18.865226
Mon 2016.5014 -202.6 6.743183 -1.7 11.917756 -204.3 18.660939
Tue 2016.5041 -132.8 6.610378 -43.0 11.874765 -175.8 18.485143
Wed 2016.5068 -125.4 6.484964 -46.9 11.827910 -172.3 18.312874
Fourth century in a row, supported by CAB (-57k), Hudson (-38k) and CAA (-26k). ESS went up by +17k.
Shadow NSIDC extent is 9.0479 dropping -62.8k. Hudson (-32k) and Kara (-29k) lost most.
In the attached delta image the drop in concentration north of Ellesmere is noticeable.
hard to resist to refer to past postings haha... even worse than expected, even the 200k happened while temps above 80N are cooler than average. but the what are 0.2-0.3C less against the 20C less in january and almost through the entire winter. a perfect fit to general conditions, thinner, warmer, less solid and the likes.
@bbr2314 i see you smile big time :-)
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Sun 2016.4986 -103.7 6.945783 +22.4 11.919443 -81.3 18.865226
Mon 2016.5014 -202.6 6.743183 -1.7 11.917756 -204.3 18.660939
Tue 2016.5041 -132.8 6.610378 -43.0 11.874765 -175.8 18.485143
Wed 2016.5068 -125.4 6.484964 -46.9 11.827910 -172.3 18.312874
Fourth century in a row, supported by CAB (-57k), Hudson (-38k) and CAA (-26k). ESS went up by +17k.
Shadow NSIDC extent is 9.0479 dropping -62.8k. Hudson (-32k) and Kara (-29k) lost most.
In the attached delta image the drop in concentration north of Ellesmere is noticeable.
hard to resist to refer to past postings haha... even worse than expected, even the 200k happened while temps above 80N are cooler than average. but the what are 0.2-0.3C less against the 20C less in january and almost through the entire winter. a perfect fit to general conditions, thinner, warmer, less solid and the likes.
@bbr2314 i see you smile big time :-)
I would be smiling if my ego were more important than the health of the planet... :)
At this point I think my assertion that this year will go ice-free is looking more and more likely... maybe we maintain a token million KM2 dispersed in old floes along the basin's periphery, but beyond the ice that's still 3-4M+ in thickness, it looks to me like everything else is going to go... note that on HYCOM/etc, the highest concentrations outside of what's pressed up against the CAA is along the ATL coast... right next to an impending scorch of SSTs surpassing 50F.
Equally important is the abysmal state of Greenland Sea ice, which has now allowed the fast ice N of Greenland to begin breaking up and joining what's being exported towards FRAM... another front pressing into the thickest ice there is. Perhaps what's more interesting/impactful over there besides the raw potential of sea ice loss is the water's encroachment into Greenland's glaciers, which are likely going to begin calving in an unprecedented fashion.
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Mon 2016.5014 -202.6 6.743183 -1.7 11.917756 -204.3 18.660939
Tue 2016.5041 -132.8 6.610378 -43.0 11.874765 -175.8 18.485143
Wed 2016.5068 -125.3 6.485084 -46.9 11.827910 -172.1 18.312994
Thu 2016.5096 +47.5 6.532555 +103.1 11.931030 +150.6 18.463585
Huge recovery of the CAB (+109k). CAA (-21k), Hudson (-18k) and ESS (-16k) are not enough to prevent an uptick in the total.
Do you realise your buddys chose extinction?The last graph is interesting if June has always been considered a 'stalling month' for ice loss!
Do you realize that you can comment without quoting the whole post?
I would think it is likely that this month sees the largest % decline of any July in history, possibly any month on record, though with August starting at an area baseline of 3-4MKM2 it could easily beat July's crash in terms of raw % lost.Yeh, well,.. if you're saying 3K is global market panic I think it's already been written in triplicate!
With only 6.5MKM2 left, 30 more days of century drops leave us staring 3KM2 in the face...
NOAA@NSIDC is pleased to announce the release of Sea Ice Index Version 2. Improvements include using the most recently available version of the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) input sea ice concentration data and revising three computations in the Sea Ice Index processing code. The new GSFC data have undergone additional manual quality control procedures at the GSFC that go farther to remove spurious ice. The GSFC data are available as their own data set from the NSIDC DAAC as Sea Ice Concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS Passive Microwave Data [http://nsidc.org/nsidc-0051]. The other three updates adjust calculations present in the old Sea Ice Index processing code that were in need of improvement. Because of these updates, minor changes in some of the ice extent and area numbers can be seen with the average change in the trends over all 12 months being on the order of 0.05 percent/decade (approximately 500 sq. km/year).
For a complete description of these changes and their effects, please see:
http://nsidc.org/data/docs/noaa/g02135_seaice_index/#jul-2016 (http://nsidc.org/data/docs/noaa/g02135_seaice_index/#jul-2016)
Access to the data and documentation is provided on the Sea Ice Index web site at: https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/ (https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/)
Shadow NSIDC is 8.7998 a drop of -154.4k. Big drops in Hudson (-43k), Baffin (-37k), Kara (-26k) and Beaufort (-20k).
| ADS-NIPR (IJIS) Extent: |
| 8,401,287 km2 (06 July) |
| Down 5,541,220 km2 (39.74%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 5,223,832 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 85,785 km2 (-1.01%) from previous day. |
| Down 632,442 km2 (-7.%) over past seven days (daily average: -90,349 km2). |
| Down 572,421 km2 (-4.68%) for July (daily average: -95,404 km2). |
| 1,032,096 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 212,659 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 695,050 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 21,712 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| 1st lowest year-to-date (01 January - 06 July) average. |
| 1st lowest July to-date average. |
| 1st lowest value for the date. |
| 127 days this year (67.91% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 33 days (17.65%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 14 days (7.49%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 174 days in total (93.05%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 6,304,220 km2 (07 July [Day 0.5123]) |
| Down 6,617,138 km2 (51.21%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 4,070,211 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 228,201 km2 (-3.49%) from previous day. |
| Down 790,048 km2 (-11.21%) over past seven days (daily average: -112,864 km2). |
| Down 790,048 km2 (-7.09%) for July (daily average: -112,864 km2). |
| 814,801 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 205,664 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 511,039 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 244,289 km2 above 2012 value for this date. |
| 3rd lowest value for the date. |
| * - NOTE: due to the prolonged absence of official CT sea ice area data, I've incorporated Wipneus' area numbers as calculated from NSIDC data. The official numbers will be inserted if/when available. In the meantime, thanks, Wipneus! |
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
Sat 2016.5151 ... 6.154631
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Wed 2016.5068 -125.3 6.485084 -43.0 11.874765 -168.3 18.359849
Thu 2016.5096 +47.3 6.532421 -46.9 11.827910 +0.5 18.360331
Fri 2016.5123 -228.3 6.304103 +103.1 11.931036 -125.2 18.235139
Sat 2016.5151 -149.5 6.154631 +188.1 12.119158 +38.7 18.273789
Biggest supporters are the CAB (-54k), ESS (-38k) and Baffin (-21k).
Shadow NSIDC extent is now 8.7799 a drop of -19.9k. Biggest drop is Baffin (-29k), Beaufort increased by +16k.
The attached delta map shows concentration drops in he central Arctic.
The hurricane-esque gyre that now dominates the entire basin is plainly obvious to me here but perhaps I am seeing things...
Correct, this is a common human perception issue to identify structures that are not really there. Great for preventing being eaten by a tiger, but also good for seeing ghosts, gods, conspiracies, or a hurricane in your water glass ;-)
Ergo, I suspect what this means is that this year there is more open water within the pack and less melt ponding than in previous years. That's consistent with the weather conditions which have favoured divergence over direct solar input.
Neven and Wipneus,
I have been following the ice concentration numbers for a while now, and I noticed that the higher resolution observations tend to show a record, while the lower resolution numbers do not.
For example, from the "Home brewed AMSR2" thread, Wipneus reported again that 2016 is in the lead for ice concentration (with only 2015 being almost equal in concentration, but 700k behind in extent) :
Extent: -92.6 (-700k vs 2015, -215k vs 2014, -401k vs 2013, +36k vs 2012)
Area: -220.4 (-667k vs 2015, -505k vs 2014, -641k vs 2013, -129k vs 2012)
The ice concentration map from Wipneus tends to show the same thing :
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-compact-compare.png
High resolution (AMSR2 3.125 km resolution) is in the lead for 2016, while lower resolution (Bootstrap AMSR2 10 km, or NASA team SSIMS 25 km resolution) is lagging behind, and not showing 2016 in the lead (yet :o).
I've been thinking about that difference, and it seems to me that if high resolution shows lower ice concentration than lower resolution, considering that ice concentration in the main pack should not matter at which resolution it is measured, that maybe the ice edge is smaller (less fragmented) this year than in other years. But considering the fragmented ice edge in areas like the Beaufort, that explanation is not satisfying.
[edit] Come to think of it, if the ice edge is highly fragmented at the smaller than 25 km (or even 10 km) resolution, then highest resolution (3.125 km) will show more high-resolution pixels with low ice concentration than low-resolution pixels with low ice concentration, which will lower the high-resolution ice concentration and explain the observations.
Is that what is going on ?
Wondering if you have any rational explanation for this apparent difference in ice concentration from the different resolution observations.
Some (and maybe most) is going to be down to the algorithm difference, not the resolution difference.
.....QuoteSome (and maybe most) is going to be down to the algorithm difference, not the resolution difference.
Wipneus also commented that, but does either one of you know of such an algorithmic difference that obtains different ice concentration from the same source satellite data ?
......
.....QuoteSome (and maybe most) is going to be down to the algorithm difference, not the resolution difference.
Wipneus also commented that, but does either one of you know of such an algorithmic difference that obtains different ice concentration from the same source satellite data ?
have a look at https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Natalia_Ivanova5/publication/272794543_Satellite_passive_microwave_measurements_of_sea_ice_concentration_an_optimal_algorithm_and_challenges/links/54eeeedd0cf2e55866f3b64f.pdf (https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Natalia_Ivanova5/publication/272794543_Satellite_passive_microwave_measurements_of_sea_ice_concentration_an_optimal_algorithm_and_challenges/links/54eeeedd0cf2e55866f3b64f.pdf)
this is freely accessible, but very technical (not very accessible in that sense). But it gives an impression what algorithms do and how they can give different results by dealing with weather and surface conditions differently.
It is also useful to be aware that the seaice concentration plots that we look at are the result of processes which have to interpret the brightness temperature data coming in (have a look at AMSR2 data on worldview) which do not give by themselves straightforward ice/ no ice information.
I always thought that the significant difference in methods from Wipneus concentration graphs :
https://14adebb0-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-compact-compare.png?attachauth=ANoY7cp_hktB3zd5pIuHTBDHQkFMea-QccNN1rwFNqyS49CbJah5Umem5XV5ZIGh1ViTiIxoayh6a7uz3VMEbwPzGG3SFaEHh6dyfNx_7Ajr2ur_LMkL8fZ5WBAlTgTPgd9Pd9RPwTAl9XjsOJFbzMweyDi0ATaDeci2aMkG5QLoz-QPQay6r6GwLJb6i1VoIyQzf79S9T2WmL5yrayIyxCp5UjNrKXgck0c_BEDMF5PgYSu7go55UFk2qmXma1U1h-bc7SxlGnS&attredirects=1 (https://14adebb0-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-compact-compare.png?attachauth=ANoY7cp_hktB3zd5pIuHTBDHQkFMea-QccNN1rwFNqyS49CbJah5Umem5XV5ZIGh1ViTiIxoayh6a7uz3VMEbwPzGG3SFaEHh6dyfNx_7Ajr2ur_LMkL8fZ5WBAlTgTPgd9Pd9RPwTAl9XjsOJFbzMweyDi0ATaDeci2aMkG5QLoz-QPQay6r6GwLJb6i1VoIyQzf79S9T2WmL5yrayIyxCp5UjNrKXgck0c_BEDMF5PgYSu7go55UFk2qmXma1U1h-bc7SxlGnS&attredirects=1)
between the NASA Team algorithm on SSMIS 25 km and Bootstrap on AMSR2 10 km (as well as Uni Hamburg ASI algorithm on AMSR2 3.125 km) was caused by the resolution difference of these three methods.
But after reading the paper you referenced, and some quick "back-of-the-envelope" calculations on how much "resolution" can affect "ice concentration", I'm not so sure any more.
day CT-date NH SH Global
Sat 2016.5151 -149.5 6.154631 +327.0 12.446055 +177.5 18.600686
Sun 2016.5178 -118.1 6.036550 +173.2 12.619207 +55.1 18.655757
Mon 2016.5205 -56.1 5.980457 +232.2 12.851426 +176.1 18.831883
Tue 2016.5233 -156.3 5.824159 +140.1 12.991487 -16.2 18.815646
[/tt]
That is true. The drop in "compactness" is mostly caused by the effects of liquid water: from dry ice/snow to wet ice/snow to melt ponds. NSIDC sea ice concentration, calculated by the NASA Team algorithm, is more sensitive than the other two methods used in that graph.
The effects of resolving leads and open water are there and similar, but not that big.
From these findings and the concentration maps that you publish, can we cautiously conclude that 2016 is in the lead when it comes to lead/polynia/open water next to ice, while when it comes to overall water on the ice (including wet snow and melting ponds) that it is in the middle of the pack, and not setting records ?
Richard, I have some info on that in my latest blog post: 2016 Melting momentum, part 3 (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/07/2016-melting-momentum-part-3.html)
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Sun 2016.5178 -118.1 6.036550 +173.2 12.619207 +55.1 18.655757
Mon 2016.5205 -56.1 5.980457 +232.2 12.851426 +176.1 18.831883
Tue 2016.5233 -156.1 5.824326 +140.1 12.991531 -16.0 18.815857
Wed 2016.5260 -108.8 5.715556 +14.6 13.006105 -94.2 18.721661
The century is supported by the CAB (-58k) and Hudson (-31k).
Shadow NSIDC extent is 8.4181 dropping -94.4k. Hudson is star: -76k. Chukchi increased +24k, Beaufort dropped -20k.
Attached delta map shows what is going on.
On current trajectory, I think sub-4MKM2 is very doable by 8/1.
QuoteOn current trajectory, I think sub-4MKM2 is very doable by 8/1.
On current trajectory, I don't see that there is any way to get sub-4Mkm^2 by 8/1.
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?N
...
Would you be able to provide 2012's area benchmarks for 8/1 and 8/16? Just curious!
...
QuoteOn current trajectory, I think sub-4MKM2 is very doable by 8/1.
On current trajectory, I don't see that there is any way to get sub-4Mkm^2 by 8/1.
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?N
Rob,
When bbr mentioned the possibility of a sub-4 by the beginning of August, I'm pretty sure this was referring to the shadow-CT value kindly provided by Wipneus, rather than the ADS extent value to which you linked . As the shadow-CT area now (as of Wed 13th July) stands at 5.716 million sq kms, it is certainly within the bounds of possibility for the drop rate over the next 18 days to average about 95k/day.
I'm not sticking my neck out and saying that this will happen, but I don't think it can be ruled out.
...
Would you be able to provide 2012's area benchmarks for 8/1 and 8/16? Just curious!
...
Links to the actual CT numbers (NH, SH & Global) are contained within the Sea Ice Graphs link on the ASIB.
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/
The values for the dates you requested were 3.787 & 2.942 respectively.
NSIDC servers are back. This is the report from sea ice concentration dated 2016-07-12.That shadow SIA reading for Day 0.5315 is lower than the SIA annual minimum recorded in 1980. One down, 36 to go...
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Tue 2016.5233 -156.1 5.824326 +140.1 12.991531 -16.0 18.815857
Wed 2016.5260 -108.8 5.715507 +14.5 13.006019 -94.3 18.721526
Thu 2016.5288 -127.6 5.587861 -4.2 13.001869 -131.8 18.589730
Fri 2016.5315 -82.5 5.505383 -64.0 12.937885 -146.5 18.443268
That shadow SIA reading for Day 0.5315 is lower than the SIA annual minimum recorded in 1980. One down, 36 to go...
Correct me if I am wrong but that is about 600k of extent gone in 4 days
ok, so can anyone provide the number that is officially considered a "cliff" so that i can learn to use terms correctly or refer to such a statement. yesterday there was a discussions where some guys said the cliff does/did not happen and is this a one. so if i'm wrong here i at least wanna know for the future and the other way
would of course be even better :-)
ok, very well, that makes sense, i took it more optical, some kind of steepening from the previous mainIf the last three days would have occurred prior to our comments, I wouldn't have argued with your use of the word cliff. Although I think Born's definition is a pretty good one.
direction of the curve but i think what you elaborated can be well used as a definition for now. thanks, very much appreciated.
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 7,611,399 km2 (14 July) |
| Down 6,331,108 km2 (45.41%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 4,433,944 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 145,972 km2 (-1.88%) from previous day. |
| Down 735,737 km2 (-8.81%) over past seven days (daily average: -105,105 km2). |
| Down 1,362,309 km2 (-11.13%) for July (daily average: -97,308 km2). |
| 1,154,419 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 211,858 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 644,187 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 65,254 km2 below 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 14 July) average. |
| Lowest July to-date average. |
| 2nd lowest value for the date. |
| 128 days this year (65.64% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 34 days (17.44%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 19 days (9.74%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 181 days in total (92.82%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 5,411,760 km2 (15 July [Day 0.5343]) |
| Down 7,509,598 km2 (58.12%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 3,177,751 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 93,487 km2 (-1.7%) from previous day. |
| Down 742,871 km2 (-12.31%) over past seven days (daily average: -106,124 km2). |
| Down 1,682,508 km2 (-15.11%) for July (daily average: -112,167 km2). |
| 971,742 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 283,265 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 457,741 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 308,751 km2 above 2012 value for this date. |
| 2nd lowest value for the date. |
| * - NOTE: due to the prolonged absence of official CT sea ice area data, I've incorporated Wipneus' shadow area numbers as calculated from NSIDC data. The official numbers will be inserted if/when available. In the meantime, thanks, Wipneus! |
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Thu 2016.5288 -127.6 5.587861 -4.2 13.001869 -131.8 18.589730
Fri 2016.5315 -82.6 5.505247 -64.0 12.937879 -146.6 18.443126
Sat 2016.5342 -93.5 5.411760 -51.9 12.886004 -145.4 18.297764
Sun 2016.5370 -66.7 5.345110 -66.6 12.819450 -133.2 18.164560
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
Tue 2016.5425 ... 5.240669
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Sun 2016.5370 -66.5 5.345257 -66.2 12.819805 -132.7 18.165062
Mon 2016.5397 -12.8 5.332489 +42.1 12.861951 +29.4 18.194440
Tue 2016.5425 -91.8 5.240649 +5.7 12.867640 -86.2 18.108289
Wed 2016.5452 -129.5 5.111185 -20.6 12.847038 -150.1 17.958223
Thanks, Wipneus. For those keeping score, 2016 SIA is now lower than the September minimums measured in 1979-1980, 1982-1983, 1986-1988, and 1996.
Neven, I think there's something wrong with those compactness graphs. Calculating CAJAX, I obtain the same values as in your graph above, for all the years 2007-2015, but not for 2016. It doesn't seem to be a leap-year problem, since I got the same values as you for 2012 and 2008 (but not for 2016). I guess the problem is that the CT-area values for the year 2016 in your spreadsheet are not aligned correctly relative to the 2007-2015 data?
Neven, I think there's something wrong with those compactness graphs. Calculating CAJAX, I obtain the same values as in your graph above, for all the years 2007-2015, but not for 2016. It doesn't seem to be a leap-year problem, since I got the same values as you for 2012 and 2008 (but not for 2016). I guess the problem is that the CT-area values for the year 2016 in your spreadsheet are not aligned correctly relative to the 2007-2015 data?
Steven, the latest SIA number as reported by Wipneus is 5111185 km2. I have entered this number for July 17th on my spreadsheet. You probably have it for July 16th, right?
edit: I'm checking my spreadsheet and 0.5452 for all other years is July 18th, but we can't know 0.5452 for this year yet as it's the 18th today.
@ Steven & Neven RE: CT date formats
As regards yyyy.5452, I've only imported the CT data from 2000 onward, and that date stamp certainly relates to July 18 each time. (Which is Day 200 for leap years, and Day 199 the rest of the time.)
So, basically, if I get this year to be in line with all the other years in my spreadsheet, and then transfer that to my CAJAX sheet, CT will basically be one day ahead of JAXA?
Neven, Here is a piece of my CT-area spreadsheet (for the last 4 years), with the last column including the latest values reported by Wipneus:
Date 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0.5370 5.047 5.905 5.961 5.735 5.345
0.5397 5.037 5.784 5.864 5.616 5.332
0.5425 4.862 5.512 5.735 5.492 5.241
0.5452 4.800 5.351 5.606 5.399 5.111
Could you check whether your CT-area values are aligned in the same way? I think your CT-area data in the last column (for 2016) are aligned in a different way compared to the other years.
This has something to do with 0.000 not being the first day of the year, but the last day. Or something like that. I believe that as Wipneus is taking the latest NSIDC data to produce the CT SIA number, the 5.111 value must be for July 17th.
Steven, I've just checked the CT SIA data file and the numbers correspond with the data up to 2015. However, if I look at Wipneus' file, I get this:
Date Steven Wip
0.5370 5.345 5.332
0.5397 5.332 5.241
0.5425 5.241 5.111
0.5452 5.111 5.027
Could you please check your spreadsheet and compare to Wipneus' AreaCalculatedLikeCryosphereToday.txt file?
CT-date NH ...
2016.5370 ... 5.345257 ...
2016.5397 ... 5.332489 ...
2016.5425 ... 5.240649
2016.5452 ... 5.111185
2016.5452 - 5.111185
2016.5452 - 5.027240
We're getting to the crux of the matter.
On July 18th and 19th Wipneus wrote this:Quote2016.5452 - 5.111185
But in the AreaCalculatedLikeCryosphereToday.txt data file it says (see attachment):Quote2016.5452 - 5.027240
So, what is it? I couldn't be more confused.
Ohh, that is obviously incorrect. I will let you know when fixed, checked and double checked.
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
2016.5616 ... 4.751969
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 6,990,510 km2 (24 July) |
| Down 6,951,997 km2 (49.86%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 3,813,055 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 77,463 km2 (-1.1%) from previous day. |
| Down 464,446 km2 (-6.23%) over past seven days (daily average: -66,349 km2). |
| Down 1,983,198 km2 (-16.21%) for July (daily average: -82,633 km2). |
| 887,147 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 20,029 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 126,567 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 280,016 km2 above 2012 value for this date. |
| 1st lowest year-to-date (01 January - 24 July) average. |
| 1st lowest July to-date average. |
| 4th lowest value for the date. |
| 128 days this year (62.44% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 35 days (17.07%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 24 days (11.71%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 187 days in total (91.22%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 4,751,969 km2 (25 July [Day 0.5616]) |
| Down 8,169,389 km2 (63.22%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 2,517,960 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 9,638 km2 (-.2%) from previous day. |
| Down 488,680 km2 (-9.56%) over past seven days (daily average: -69,811 km2). |
| Down 2,342,299 km2 (-21.03%) for July (daily average: -93,692 km2). |
| 801,202 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 79,029 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 190,334 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 326,777 km2 above 2012 value for this date. |
| 4th lowest value for the date. |
| * - NOTE: due to the prolonged absence of official CT sea ice area data, I've incorporated Wipneus' "shadow area" numbers as calculated from NSIDC data. The official numbers will be inserted if/when available. In the meantime, thanks, Wipneus! |
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:<snippage> moved to a better thread for the discussion.
day CT-date NH SH Global
Wed 2016.5644 -84.3 4.667566 +81.4 13.249363 -2.9 17.916929
Thu 2016.5671 -46.3 4.621301 +7.4 13.256794 -38.8 17.878095
Fri 2016.5699 -52.9 4.568436 +54.4 13.311186 +1.5 17.879622
Sat 2016.5726 -64.4 4.504044 -52.5 13.258720 -116.9 17.762764
Like yesterday is is only the CAB that is moving: -41k this time.
Shadow NSIDC extent is now 7.1386 dropping -32.8k. Kara had an uptick of +23k. Other regions were slow, Beaufort most with -13k.
The daily delta map is where you can expect it.
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Wed 2016.5644 -84.3 4.667566 +81.4 13.249363 -2.9 17.916929
Thu 2016.5671 -46.3 4.621301 +7.4 13.256794 -38.8 17.878095
Fri 2016.5699 -52.9 4.568436 +54.4 13.311186 +1.5 17.879622
Sat 2016.5726 -64.4 4.504044 -52.5 13.258720 -116.9 17.762764
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 6,622,391 km2 (29 July) |
| Down 7,320,116 km2 (52.5%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 3,444,936 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 62,949 km2 (-.94%) from previous day. |
| Down 505,285 km2 (-7.09%) over past seven days (daily average: -72,184 km2). |
| Down 2,351,317 km2 (-19.22%) for July (daily average: -81,080 km2). |
| 848,518 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 20,395 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 107,661 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 419,358 km2 above 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 29 July) average. |
| 3rd lowest July to-date average. |
| 4th lowest value for the date. |
| 128 days this year (60.95% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 35 days (16.67%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 24 days (11.43%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 187 days in total (89.05%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 4,321,657 km2 (30 July [Day 0.5753]) |
| Down 8,599,701 km2 (66.55%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 2,087,648 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 181,981 km2 (-4.04%) from previous day. |
| Down 482,066 km2 (-10.12%) over past seven days (daily average: -68,867 km2). |
| Down 2,772,611 km2 (-24.89%) for July (daily average: -92,420 km2). |
| 965,307 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 238,082 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 210,109 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 85,790 km2 above 2012 value for this date. |
| 3rd lowest value for the date. |
| * - NOTE: due to the prolonged absence of official CT sea ice area data, I've incorporated Wipneus' "shadow" area numbers as calculated from NSIDC data. The official numbers will be inserted if/when available. In the meantime, thanks, Wipneus! |
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
2016.5808 ... 4.137335
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
2016.5808 ... 4.137335
Currently 2nd lowest (behind 2012):
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FJVRgZ4p.png&hash=c83572136a9ce306910bb655ca383154)
...
leaves us with floes so small the heat enters through top, base and sides.
...
ADS daily change: -96228
For what it's worth, side melt doesn't contribute significantly until your floe size gets under 150M or so in diameter....
leaves us with floes so small the heat enters through top, base and sides.
...
Exactly. Consider the hypothetical case of a cube of ice that is (say) one metre along each edge. The volume would obviously be one cubic metre, and its surface area would be 6 sq metres.
Now imagine if this was somehow fractured into 8 identical smaller cubes, such that each edge was only 0.5 metres. The volume would be unchanged, but the total surface area would double to 12 sq metres. With uneven fracturing, the ratio between surface area and volume would rise much faster.
As the rate of energy transfer into the ice is a function of surface area... Well, I don't think it needs to be spelled out.
For what it's worth, side melt doesn't contribute significantly until your floe size gets under 150M or so in diameter.
This study claimed that without the GAC 2012 minimum would have been only 150k higher.
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 6,321,835 km2 (01 August) |
| Down 7,620,672 km2 (54.66%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 3,144,380 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 116,275 km2 (-1.81%) from previous day. |
| Down 590,452 km2 (-8.54%) over past seven days (daily average: -84,350 km2). |
| Down 116,275 km2 (-.95%) for August (daily average: -116,275 km2). |
| 885,576 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 137,399 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 146,308 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 239,435 km2 above 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 01 August) average. |
| 4th lowest August to-date average. |
| 4th lowest value for the date. |
| 128 days this year (60.09% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 35 days (16.43%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 24 days (11.27%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 187 days in total (87.79%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 4,039,888 km2 (02 August [Day 0.5836]) |
| Down 8,881,470 km2 (68.73%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 1,805,879 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 97,276 km2 (-2.35%) from previous day. |
| Down 627,678 km2 (-13.58%) over past seven days (daily average: -89,668 km2). |
| Down 241,338 km2 (-2.17%) for August (daily average: -120,669 km2). |
| 1,025,733 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 290,693 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 206,603 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 252,692 km2 above 2012 value for this date. |
| 2nd lowest value for the date. |
| * - NOTE: due to the prolonged absence of official CT sea ice area data, I've incorporated Wipneus' shadow area numbers as calculated from NSIDC data. The official numbers will be substituted in if/when available. In the meantime, thanks, Wipneus! |
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Mon 2016.5781 -40.1 4.281226 +156.9 13.572847 +116.8 17.854073
Tue 2016.5808 -144.1 4.137164 +187.3 13.760145 +43.2 17.897309
Wed 2016.5836 -97.1 4.040073 -114.9 13.645262 -212.0 17.685335
Thu 2016.5863 -90.9 3.949171 -36.5 13.608778 -127.4 17.557949
Seems that today we have an important ASI compaction and/or flash melt.Looking at this area with NASA Worldview it seems to me that most of the concentration-change is due to a change in cloud cover (see the two pics below). If you zoom in (http://go.nasa.gov/2aI5fyn) you can see that there is definitely some melting going on. But the changes do not look that massive between the 4th and 5th - at least to my eyes.
...]
Thank you Juan,Hey Rob thank you! I was waiting to download another image later this week.
I think it was seaicesailor who first noted that the ice north-north-east of Wrangel island showed a "path" of weak ice, with holes forming along the way north, and he suggested this had to do with ocean currents from the Bering.
I found this image of the currents out of the Bering Strait into the Arctic, and I think seaicesailor does have a point : There is a current out of the Bering that flows right next to (to the east of) Wrangel island, through "Harald Valley" and due north, which matches with the location where (at least on AMSR) Arctic sea ice is forming increasingly large polynia :
...
Elsewhere I found that this current is called "Anadyr" water, and since it comes directly out of the Bering, it can very well have contributed to the weakening of the ice along the current (by bottom melt) which now culminates in dropping off the AMSR2 radar.
This does not bode well for the ice in that area, which is already extremely fragmented as JayW's animations clearly show.
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 5,868,941 km2 (06 August) |
| Down 8,073,566 km2 (57.91%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 2,691,486 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 93,189 km2 (-1.56%) from previous day. |
| Down 665,397 km2 (-10.18%) over past seven days (daily average: -95,057 km2). |
| Down 569,169 km2 (-4.65%) for August (daily average: -94,862 km2). |
| 988,410 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 217,865 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 283,861 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 374,805 km2 above 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 06 August) average. |
| 3rd lowest August to-date average. |
| 3rd lowest value for the date. |
| 128 days this year (58.72% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 35 days (16.06%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 29 days (13.3%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 192 days in total (88.07%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 3,801,130 km2 (06 August [Day 0.5973]) |
| Down 9,120,228 km2 (70.58%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 1,567,121 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 123,622 km2 (-3.15%) from previous day. |
| Down 480,096 km2 (-11.6%) over past seven days (daily average: -68,585 km2). |
| Down 480,096 km2 (-4.31%) for August (daily average: -68,585 km2). |
| 1,018,109 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 238,507 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 150,878 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 375,763 km2 above 2012 value for this date. |
| * - NOTE: due to the prolonged absence of official CT sea ice area data, I've incorporated Wipneus' shadow area numbers as calculated from NSIDC data. The official numbers will be inserted if/when available. In the meantime, thanks, Wipneus! |
Thank you Juan,...
I think it was seaicesailor who first noted that the ice north-north-east of Wrangel island showed a "path" of weak ice, with holes forming along the way north, and he suggested this had to do with ocean currents from the Bering.
...
Right now the polynya is being moved laterally with the ice. We'll see if the ocean opens up again in the previous location, but anyway the polynya is so huge now that we may end up not seeing a thing.
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
2016.6000 ... 3.675573
Flash-unflash-flash-unflash? :)
Bumpy ride...
Flash-unflash-flash-unflash? :)
Bumpy ride...
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Sun 2016.5945 -4.4 3.924752 +37.5 13.945810 +33.1 17.870562
Mon 2016.5973 -123.7 3.801093 -2.2 13.943580 -125.9 17.744673
Tue 2016.6000 -124.7 3.676421 -37.7 13.905869 -162.4 17.582290
Wed 2016.6027 +2.0 3.678457 -3.7 13.902207 -1.6 17.580664
Flash-unflash-flash-unflash? :)
Bumpy ride...
Flash-unflash-flash-unflash? :)
Bumpy ride...
Time of year when temperatures hoovering around freezing point. The daily cycle of temperatures gets more prominent as well. Since the satellite orbits do not exactly repeat after 24 hours, I speculate there may be a cause and effect.
animation needs a click to start
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Thu 2016.6055 -9.0 3.669434 +59.6 13.961410 +50.6 17.630844
Fri 2016.6082 -49.9 3.619535 -5.3 13.956136 -55.2 17.575671
Sat 2016.6110 -12.6 3.606984 -45.9 13.910256 -58.4 17.517240
Sun 2016.6137 +29.5 3.636496 +29.0 13.939217 +58.5 17.575713
| ADS-NIPR Extent: |
| 5,420,490 km2 (12 August) |
| Down 8,522,017 km2 (61.12%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 2,243,035 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 73,342 km2 (-1.33%) from previous day. |
| Down 541,640 km2 (-9.08%) over past seven days (daily average: -77,377 km2). |
| Down 1,017,620 km2 (-8.32%) for August (daily average: -84,802 km2). |
| 1,082,297 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 201,538 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 242,491 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 626,976 km2 above 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 12 August) average. |
| 3rd lowest August to-date average. |
| 3rd lowest value for the date. |
| 128 days this year (57.14% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 35 days (15.63%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 35 days (15.63%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 198 days in total (88.39%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 3,636,496 km2 (12 August [Day 0.6136]) |
| Down 9,284,862 km2 (71.86%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 1,402,487 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Up 29,512 km2 (.82%) from previous day. |
| Down 288,256 km2 (-7.58%) over past seven days (daily average: -41,179 km2). |
| Down 644,730 km2 (-5.79%) for August (daily average: -49,595 km2). |
| 905,509 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 142,760 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 49,754 km2 above 2015 value for this date. |
| 523,395 km2 above 2012 value for this date. |
| * - NOTE: due to the prolonged absence of official CT sea ice area data, I've incorporated Wipneus' shadow area numbers as calculated from NSIDC data. The official numbers will be inserted if/when available. In the meantime, thanks, Wipneus! |
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
...
2016.6192 ... 3.580469
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Sun 2016.6137 +29.5 3.636514 +28.9 13.939110 +58.4 17.575624
Mon 2016.6164 -78.5 3.557990 +51.4 13.990507 -27.1 17.548497
Tue 2016.6192 +23.1 3.581084 +131.4 14.121924 +154.5 17.703008
Wed 2016.6219 -76.7 3.504432 +105.5 14.227472 +28.9 17.731904
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Mon 2016.6164 -78.5 3.557990 +51.4 13.990507 -27.1 17.548497
Tue 2016.6192 +23.1 3.581084 +131.4 14.121924 +154.5 17.703008
Wed 2016.6219 -76.4 3.504732 +105.6 14.227520 +29.2 17.732252
Thu 2016.6247 -169.7 3.335018 +84.3 14.311798 -85.4 17.646816
All due to a huge drop in Laptev: -110k.
Losses in CAA (-122k),Can you say flash melt much? :o
| ADS-NIPR (IJIS) Extent: |
| 5,173,737 km2 (16 August) |
| Down 8,768,770 km2 (62.89%) from 2016 maximum of 13,942,507 km2 on 29 February. |
| 1,996,282 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012). |
| Down 109,341 km2 (-2.07%) from previous day. |
| Down 482,442 km2 (-8.53%) over past seven days (daily average: -68,920 km2). |
| Down 1,264,373 km2 (-10.33%) for August (daily average: -79,023 km2). |
| 1,103,958 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 187,131 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 296,907 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 706,946 km2 above 2012 value for this date. |
| Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 16 August) average. |
| 3rd lowest August to-date average. |
| 3rd lowest value for the date. |
| 128 days this year (56.14% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent. |
| 35 days (15.35%) have recorded the second lowest. |
| 39 days (17.11%) have recorded the third lowest. |
| 202 days in total (88.6%) have been among the lowest three on record. |
| CT Area: |
| 3,335,018 km2 (16 August [Day 0.6246]) |
| Down 9,586,340 km2 (74.19%) from 2016 maximum of 12,921,358 km2 on 29 March [Day 0.2384]. |
| 1,101,009 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012). |
| Down 169,714 km2 (-4.84%) from previous day. |
| Down 334,416 km2 (-9.24%) over past seven days (daily average: -47,774 km2). |
| Down 946,208 km2 (-8.5%) for August (daily average: -55,659 km2). |
| 1,048,044 km2 below 2000s average for this date. |
| 365,189 km2 below 2010s average for this date. |
| 259,835 km2 below 2015 value for this date. |
| 392,672 km2 above 2012 value for this date. |
| * - NOTE: due to the prolonged absence of official CT sea ice area data, I've incorporated Wipneus' shadow area numbers as calculated from NSIDC data. The official numbers will be inserted if/when available. In the meantime, thanks, Wipneus! |
It is outstanding that almost no blue appears either in the Atlantic or the Pacific side on the last two concentration maps above. Only Laptev edge shows some.That drift map is really awful for the ice. Everything along the edges is being dispersed into much warmer water. Laptev ice is being driven into warm near shore. Chukchi and near-CAB is driven towards warmer Chukchi and Beaufort water. All across the Atlantic side, from the Fram to past Franz Josef, ice is being driven towards water that is 1 to 10+(!)C above normal. And all the while more heat is being drawn up from depth in the middle of the pack.
If 2016 area loss were to end now, shadow SIA would still be in 7th place. Here's a list of the additional area 2016 needs to lose in order to reach each of the remaining ranks:
6th: 2015: 136k
5th: 2010: 157k
4th: 2008: 226k
3rd: 2007: 310k
2nd: 2011: 325k
1st: 2012: 995k
On a related note: were the remainder of the SIA melt season to proceed exactly as 2013 did from this point onward, 2016 would set a new record.
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Thu 2016.6247 -169.7 3.335046 +84.3 14.311867 -85.3 17.646913
Fri 2016.6274 -74.5 3.260544 +73.9 14.385759 -0.6 17.646303
Sat 2016.6301 -31.7 3.228863 +39.5 14.425276 +7.8 17.654139
Sun 2016.6329 -24.7 3.204134 +98.6 14.523893 +73.9 17.728027
It is not moving slowly. It is being ripped apart each and every day, the clouds are masking the damage. I would bet that the "real" area is now below all minimums besides 07/11/12.
You can see large inexplicable blue areas flashing back and forth... with AMSR2's data yday and the small decrease today that probably means we are going to see a 150-200K loss tomorrow.
Clouds can make the apparent concentration go down as well as up. All we can say is that the data are currently noisier than usual.
It is not moving slowly. It is being ripped apart each and every day, the clouds are masking the damage. I would bet that the "real" area is now below all minimums besides 07/11/12.
You can see large inexplicable blue areas flashing back and forth... with AMSR2's data yday and the small decrease today that probably means we are going to see a 150-200K loss tomorrow.
Oh, I'm not doubting that the ice is disappearing; that's why I stated that the numbers were going down slowly, and not the ice. But the numbers are all we have to go by and refer to. Your "bets" and "probablys" may very well come to pass--in fact, they could be understatements, given what's happening--but, in the end, data rules.
FWIW, 2016 SIA is almost certainly going to end up in that 670k gap where 2nd place awaits...
I would say the pack now has a huge potential for compaction, being at record low levels.I think the problem we are seeing this year is there is too much open water for compaction to be effective... eg, if you are "compacting" an extent of 1M SQ KM with an area of 300-400K KM2 (that is also thin), the movement alone makes the ice go 'poof' so instead of a meaningful agglomeration as an end result, you have nothing...
We dont have to wait 10 days for pretty extreme events, this is Tuesday 23 to 25.
I'm anticipating that with the remnants of the Wendel Island "bridge" and a large slug of the Laptev.I would say the pack now has a huge potential for compaction, being at record low levels.I think the problem we are seeing this year is there is too much open water for compaction to be effective... eg, if you are "compacting" an extent of 1M SQ KM with an area of 300-400K KM2 (that is also thin), the movement alone makes the ice go 'poof' so instead of a meaningful agglomeration as an end result, you have nothing...
We dont have to wait 10 days for pretty extreme events, this is Tuesday 23 to 25.
This does not hold for the area immediately N of the CAA & NW of Greenland, but for everywhere else, "compaction" seems to be translating into straight-up melting this yr instead of yielding any positive effects (more structural stability, etc).
I would say the pack now has a huge potential for compaction, being at record low levels.
We dont have to wait 10 days for pretty extreme events, this is Tuesday 23 to 25.
Why would it almost certainly end up there? I think it will go below 2012...
Tealight, I appreciate you doing the model - and also others who do similar. It's a service to us and can inform us.
Was wondering though, in your forecast model, how much of the warm salty water from the 'Atlantic layer' of the Arctic Ocean did the storm mix in or bring to the surface?
How much of this warm water was from Ekman pumping? How much from wave action?
How much ice will this be melting over the coming days and weeks?
How did you calibrate your model for these effects? How big are the uncertainties in the calibration? In the modelling of the storm?
all current models are based on past data and experience and while i'm not sayin' it has to happen now (this year), sooner or later we shall see the events that make all models based on previous years appear obsolete, not to say misleading.magnamentis, your statement is more misleading than any model can be.
Storms mostly increase the energy transfer between ocean-ice and (ocean-ice)-Atmosphere, but they don't add any energy to the system. The atmosphere is already sucking energy out of the ocean and as the days go by it will become more and more.
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Fri 2016.6274 -74.5 3.260544 +73.9 14.385759 -0.6 17.646303
Sat 2016.6301 -31.7 3.228863 +39.5 14.425276 +7.8 17.654139
Sun 2016.6329 -24.7 3.204209 +98.8 14.524028 +74.1 17.728237
Mon 2016.6356 -31.9 3.172290 +210.4 14.734400 +178.5 17.906690
It's the total energy budget in question here, Nick. While weather will bring heat north, as insolation drops, the best that imported heat can do is balance out the heat being lost out of the top of the atmosphere. That's what we saw last winter - it doesn't put heat into the ice or water, it slows movement out of the water, so more can go into the ice.Storms mostly increase the energy transfer between ocean-ice and (ocean-ice)-Atmosphere, but they don't add any energy to the system. The atmosphere is already sucking energy out of the ocean and as the days go by it will become more and more.
Are you certain about this?
My uninformed sense is that storms can pull energy from warmer regions into the Arctic and deposit it there by condensation, convection and mechanical work (especially now that there are many polynyas where waves can form). I am open to being contradicted though ???
...Your model assumes no heat transfer from lower layers to upper layers in the water column. Is that correct?
Storms mostly increase the energy transfer between ocean-ice and (ocean-ice)-Atmosphere, but they don't add any energy to the system. The atmosphere is already sucking energy out of the ocean and as the days go by it will become more and more. Once all melt potential is gone new ice has to form. It is a simple energy input-output equation.
...
It's the total energy budget in question here, Nick. While weather will bring heat north, as insolation drops, the best that imported heat can do is balance out the heat being lost out of the top of the atmosphere.
Yes, you've pretty well summarized it. The heat the storm applies to the ice is already there.It's the total energy budget in question here, Nick. While weather will bring heat north, as insolation drops, the best that imported heat can do is balance out the heat being lost out of the top of the atmosphere.
OK - so you're saying the storm does transfer energy to the Arctic system from the South, but not enough at this time of year to move net energy balance of the Arctic from negative to positive, and not enough to materially affect the ice. Is that correct?
...Your model assumes no heat transfer from lower layers to upper layers in the water column. Is that correct?
Storms mostly increase the energy transfer between ocean-ice and (ocean-ice)-Atmosphere, but they don't add any energy to the system. The atmosphere is already sucking energy out of the ocean and as the days go by it will become more and more. Once all melt potential is gone new ice has to form. It is a simple energy input-output equation.
...
So how sever a storm is necessary to violate your assumption in a meaningful way?
It's the total energy budget in question here, Nick. While weather will bring heat north, as insolation drops, the best that imported heat can do is balance out the heat being lost out of the top of the atmosphere.
OK - so you're saying the storm does transfer energy to the Arctic system from the South, but not enough at this time of year to move net energy balance of the Arctic from negative to positive, and not enough to materially affect the ice. Is that correct?
The problems with storms is that they never affect the whole arctic. They have maybe a radius of 500-1000km where waves, ekman pumping and heat from the south will significantly impact melting, but the Arctic basin stretches over an area of roughly 3300*2800km. A storm on the Atlantic side can't prevent freezing on the pacific side and vice versa. Usually the other side of the Arctic experiences cooler than average conditons because it has cold winds from the north.
Edit: A SuperTyphoon(2200km diameter) is still not big enough to cover the entire Arctic.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4e/Typhoonsizes.jpg)
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Sat 2016.6301 -31.7 3.228863 +39.5 14.425276 +7.8 17.654139
Sun 2016.6329 -24.7 3.204209 +98.8 14.524028 +74.1 17.728237
Mon 2016.6356 -32.2 3.172037 +210.4 14.734391 +178.2 17.906428
Tue 2016.6384 -43.5 3.128512 +84.5 14.818940 +41.0 17.947452
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Sat 2016.6301 -31.7 3.228863 +39.5 14.425276 +7.8 17.654139
Sun 2016.6329 -24.7 3.204209 +98.8 14.524028 +74.1 17.728237
Mon 2016.6356 -32.2 3.172037 +210.4 14.734391 +178.2 17.906428
Tue 2016.6384 -43.5 3.128512 +84.5 14.818940 +41.0 17.947452
2016 would finish up in 7th place overall were the melt season to end today. The updated list of the additional area 2016 needs to lose in order to reach each of the remaining ranks:
6th: 2015: 35k
5th: 2010: 57k
4th: 2008: 125k
3rd: 2007: 210k
2nd: 2011: 224k
1st: 2012: 895k
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Sat 2016.6301 -31.7 3.228863 +39.5 14.425276 +7.8 17.654139
Sun 2016.6329 -24.7 3.204209 +98.8 14.524028 +74.1 17.728237
Mon 2016.6356 -32.2 3.172037 +210.4 14.734391 +178.2 17.906428
Tue 2016.6384 -43.5 3.128512 +84.5 14.818940 +41.0 17.947452
2016 would finish up in 7th place overall were the melt season to end today. The updated list of the additional area 2016 needs to lose in order to reach each of the remaining ranks:
6th: 2015: 35k
5th: 2010: 57k
4th: 2008: 125k
3rd: 2007: 210k
2nd: 2011: 224k
1st: 2012: 895k
Looks like a lock on 4th place with 2nd still a very strong possibility.
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Sat 2016.6301 -31.7 3.228863 +39.5 14.425276 +7.8 17.654139
Sun 2016.6329 -24.7 3.204209 +98.8 14.524028 +74.1 17.728237
Mon 2016.6356 -32.2 3.172037 +210.4 14.734391 +178.2 17.906428
Tue 2016.6384 -43.5 3.128512 +84.5 14.818940 +41.0 17.947452
2016 would finish up in 7th place overall were the melt season to end today. The updated list of the additional area 2016 needs to lose in order to reach each of the remaining ranks:
6th: 2015: 35k
5th: 2010: 57k
4th: 2008: 125k
3rd: 2007: 210k
2nd: 2011: 224k
1st: 2012: 895k
Looks like a lock on 4th place with 2nd still a very strong possibility.
At this point, I will--possibly foolishly--slide all my chips over to 2nd place. My "logic": over the last ten years, the average drop from today through minimum has been 470k, with nine of those ten years seeing enough additional area loss to give 2016 the silver (2007 was the lone holdout; a repeat of that year's remaining decrease would leave 2016 in 4th.)
But, as always, we will see...
It will really surpise me if this year does not take over first place minimal area wise.
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Mon 2016.6356 -32.2 3.172037 +210.4 14.734391 +178.2 17.906428
Tue 2016.6384 -43.1 3.128940 +84.9 14.819282 +41.8 17.948222
Wed 2016.6411 +21.2 3.150159 +99.0 14.918244 +120.2 18.068403
Thu 2016.6438 +25.0 3.175113 -36.4 14.881868 -11.4 18.056981
The problem is that area is not increasing. The "increases" are clouds or interference of whatever type. Clearly, the Kara is completely ice-free and 15K KM2 of ice did not spontaneously appear along its shorelines. It is just noise and the gains should not be interpreted as legitimate (at least not until we hit minimum).Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Mon 2016.6356 -32.2 3.172037 +210.4 14.734391 +178.2 17.906428
Tue 2016.6384 -43.1 3.128940 +84.9 14.819282 +41.8 17.948222
Wed 2016.6411 +21.2 3.150159 +99.0 14.918244 +120.2 18.068403
Thu 2016.6438 +25.0 3.175113 -36.4 14.881868 -11.4 18.056981
FWIW, one or more days of increased area isn't a rarity around this time. Just last year, we saw four consecutive days of area growth that lead to 150k of net growth--followed by 16 days of ice decrease in which an additional 523k disappeared. 2012 had a four-day span that saw two large increases and just 15k of area loss, and that was followed by 493k before minimum. And one more: 2007 went through an 11-day span in which area rose by 103k, and that was followed by an 8-day drop to minimum of 257k.
The problem is that area is not increasing. The "increases" are clouds or interference of whatever type. Clearly, the Kara is completely ice-free and 15K KM2 of ice did not spontaneously appear along its shorelines. It is just noise and the gains should not be interpreted as legitimate (at least not until we hit minimum).
I am not saying data is bad, I am saying this data is corrupted and somewhat inaccurate. While it certainly has value, that value is lessened when people misinterpret clouds as gains.The problem is that area is not increasing. The "increases" are clouds or interference of whatever type. Clearly, the Kara is completely ice-free and 15K KM2 of ice did not spontaneously appear along its shorelines. It is just noise and the gains should not be interpreted as legitimate (at least not until we hit minimum).
The thing is, scientists use data. They don't simply dismiss out of hand those they don't like because numbers disagree with what they think or feel they should be. At the end of the season, we can't look at any of the metrics and say, "I don't care what PIOMAS, or IJIS, or NSIDC, or anyone else says; they were all just measuring 'clouds or interference', so the official numbers 'should not be interpreted as legitimate'."
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Tue 2016.6384 -43.1 3.128940 +84.9 14.819282 +41.8 17.948222
Wed 2016.6411 +21.2 3.150159 +99.0 14.918244 +120.2 18.068403
Thu 2016.6438 +24.7 3.174887 -36.3 14.881905 -11.6 18.056792
Fri 2016.6466 -86.3 3.088544 -127.7 14.754198 -214.0 17.842742
I am not saying data is bad, I am saying this data is corrupted and somewhat inaccurate.
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:
day CT-date NH SH Global
Tue 2016.6384 -43.1 3.128940 +84.9 14.819282 +41.8 17.948222
Wed 2016.6411 +21.2 3.150159 +99.0 14.918244 +120.2 18.068403
Thu 2016.6438 +24.7 3.174887 -36.3 14.881905 -11.6 18.056792
Fri 2016.6466 -86.3 3.088544 -127.7 14.754198 -214.0 17.842742
That puts 2016 ahead of 2015 and into 6th place overall. Here's a list of the years in 1st through 5th place, along with how much more ice needs to disappear for 2016 to move into each of the remaining ranks:
5th: 2010: 17k
4th: 2008: 85k
3rd: 2007: 170k
2nd: 2011: 184k
1st: 2012: 855kI am not saying data is bad, I am saying this data is corrupted and somewhat inaccurate.
So data that are "corrupted" and "inaccurate" aren't necessarily "bad"? Lemme check my dictionary on that one... ;-)
There is noise in data.
There is noise in data.
Thank you Rox.
This noise is clear in Wipneus' latest posts :
Aug 21: Shadow NSIDC extent is now 5.0224 a drop of -163.8k.
Aug 22: Shadow NSIDC extent is now 5.0214 dropping -1.0k.
Aug 23: Shadow NSIDC extent is now 5.1012 an uptick of +79.8k.
Aug 24: Shadow NSIDC extent is now 4.9823 dropping -118.9k.
Maybe this is why IJIS and NSIDC use multiple-day averages.
As Neven said, this is 'the slowest horse race in the world'.
Let us not get over excited about single day changes.
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:Given the false gains this shows despite still attaining a loss of 170K KM2, I think we still have several century++ losses remaining... tomorrow we should clear the #2 spot leaving only 2012 ahead. I don't think it'll stay ahead...
day CT-date NH SH Global
Wed 2016.6411 +21.2 3.150159 +99.0 14.918244 +120.2 18.068403
Thu 2016.6438 +24.7 3.174887 -36.3 14.881905 -11.6 18.056792
Fri 2016.6466 -86.3 3.088586 -129.1 14.752838 -215.4 17.841424
Sat 2016.6493 -170.0 2.918591 +26.1 14.778897 -143.9 17.697488
Most of this in the CAB: -146k.
Shadow NSIDC extent is now 4.9397 dropping -42.6k. CAB declined -31k, CAA increased +32k. Small changes elsewhere.
The attached daily delta map has put some colors in the CAB, missing in the last few days.
Most of this in the CAB: -146k.
Shadow NSIDC extent is now 4.9397 dropping -42.6k. CAB declined -31k, CAA increased +32k. Small changes elsewhere.
Here is the shadow CT-area report based on calibrated F18 NSIDC sea ice concentration data:Given the false gains this shows despite still attaining a loss of 170K KM2, I think we still have several century++ losses remaining... tomorrow we should clear the #2 spot leaving only 2012 ahead. I don't think it'll stay ahead...
day CT-date NH SH Global
Wed 2016.6411 +21.2 3.150159 +99.0 14.918244 +120.2 18.068403
Thu 2016.6438 +24.7 3.174887 -36.3 14.881905 -11.6 18.056792
Fri 2016.6466 -86.3 3.088586 -129.1 14.752838 -215.4 17.841424
Sat 2016.6493 -170.0 2.918591 +26.1 14.778897 -143.9 17.697488
Most of this in the CAB: -146k.
Shadow NSIDC extent is now 4.9397 dropping -42.6k. CAB declined -31k, CAA increased +32k. Small changes elsewhere.
The attached daily delta map has put some colors in the CAB, missing in the last few days.
@ Neven
I dont know, i think now where the ice is thin and more open, it becomes more effctive then in June/july, because of more wave forcing and effective energy imput (because of the clouds and warm air).
Its the same thing with the GAC in 2012, this in June would not destroyed so many Extent as it has.
But would agree, it should not be enough to beat Area from 2012, but could give the chance to fill the place between 2012 and other years
True, but it would cause an enormous amount of preconditioning that would make itself felt in August.
The sun is much lower now, and the cold is coming. The dispersed ice on the periphery (especially the Wrangel arms) would probably be a goner anyway after the GAC. This is going to be a compaction event. Compaction towards the end of the melting season makes a real difference.
Yes, this is as good as certain for CT SIA. Already third lowest now, just 14K needed to breeze past 2011.
Such a Dipole in June or July... I don't even want to think about how the ice would look right now.
I've bolded the chief problem we've seen so far this year. In fact, the ice has only recently barely started compacting in the triangle N of Greenland & the CAA. Elsewhere, where it would normally compact, the amount of open water between floes has instead caused it to simply drift, which is *very bad* for the ice.@ Neven
I dont know, i think now where the ice is thin and more open, it becomes more effctive then in June/july, because of more wave forcing and effective energy imput (because of the clouds and warm air).
Its the same thing with the GAC in 2012, this in June would not destroyed so many Extent as it has.
True, but it would cause an enormous amount of preconditioning that would make itself felt in August.
The sun is much lower now, and the cold is coming. The dispersed ice on the periphery (especially the Wrangel arms) would probably be a goner anyway after the GAC. This is going to be a compaction event. Compaction towards the end of the melting season makes a real difference.QuoteBut would agree, it should not be enough to beat Area from 2012, but could give the chance to fill the place between 2012 and other years
Yes, this is as good as certain for CT SIA. Already third lowest now, just 14K needed to breeze past 2011.
I've bolded the chief problem we've seen so far this year. In fact, the ice has only recently barely started compacting in the triangle N of Greenland & the CAA. Elsewhere, where it would normally compact, the amount of open water between floes has instead caused it to simply drift, which is *very bad* for the ice.@ Neven
I dont know, i think now where the ice is thin and more open, it becomes more effctive then in June/july, because of more wave forcing and effective energy imput (because of the clouds and warm air).
Its the same thing with the GAC in 2012, this in June would not destroyed so many Extent as it has.
True, but it would cause an enormous amount of preconditioning that would make itself felt in August.
The sun is much lower now, and the cold is coming. The dispersed ice on the periphery (especially the Wrangel arms) would probably be a goner anyway after the GAC. This is going to be a compaction event. Compaction towards the end of the melting season makes a real difference.QuoteBut would agree, it should not be enough to beat Area from 2012, but could give the chance to fill the place between 2012 and other years
Yes, this is as good as certain for CT SIA. Already third lowest now, just 14K needed to breeze past 2011.
I think that is what makes the difference between sub-2M KM2 and 1M (which, I know you ppl may think is crazy, I think is still a possibility).Yes, I think sub-2M is crazy, and not a serious possibility.
I think that is what makes the difference between sub-2M KM2 and 1M (which, I know you ppl may think is crazy, I think is still a possibility).Yes, I think sub-2M is crazy, and not a serious possibility.
1M is out of the question.
QuoteBut would agree, it should not be enough to beat Area from 2012, but could give the chance to fill the place between 2012 and other years
Yes, this is as good as certain for CT SIA. Already third lowest now, just 14K needed to breeze past 2011.
Is this real (from ASIG page) ?
Is this real (from ASIG page) ?
With an official # at 2.8 despite all the clouds, I think the "real" number we would be able to see if IR was perfect would be just about where 2012 is right now...
Yes :)With an official # at 2.8 despite all the clouds, I think the "real" number we would be able to see if IR was perfect would be just about where 2012 is right now...
Instead of "IR", I assume that you mean SSMIS or AMSR2 ?
Now, an intellectually honest person will discount all those daily numbers if they're going to discount any; they won't declare only those numbers that validate their (sometimes) overzealous forecasts as true and correct, and dismiss as "inaccurate" and "corrupt" any numbers that show otherwise. Doing so is called "cherrypicking", of course, and it's --rightly--frowned upon in scientific circles. So, either we reject all minimum/maximum sea ice records based on all daily numbers being suspect, or we reject none, acknowledging that they may or may not precisely reflect reality, but that biases have been accounted for.
(As a recap, this particular thread began a few days back when I noted that Wipneus's shadow area numbers had gone up for two consecutive days, and one member responded that area had NOT gone up, based on the fact that Wipneus's numbers for those two days only were corrupt and inaccurate.)
...That is a mouthful. I've seen something repeated several times that I lack a physics explanation for.
If data doesn't meet a common-sense test or match physical theory and no explanation can be found, THEN physical theory needs revision.
...
I hesitate to pollute this thread with this type of meta-analysis, but it's become less and less fun to read the comments when more and more I see nothing but harsh criticisms of others *opinions.*There are nicer ways of dealing with "problems".
Now, an intellectually honest person will discount all those daily numbers if they're going to discount any; they won't declare only those numbers that validate their (sometimes) overzealous forecasts as true and correct, and dismiss as "inaccurate" and "corrupt" any numbers that show otherwise. Doing so is called "cherrypicking", of course, and it's --rightly--frowned upon in scientific circles. So, either we reject all minimum/maximum sea ice records based on all daily numbers being suspect, or we reject none, acknowledging that they may or may not precisely reflect reality, but that biases have been accounted for.
No, biases have NOT been fully accounted for. That's precisely why the uncertainties are so large. And scientists are constantly discounting data from observations - it's a fundamental part of science. It has little to do with 'cherry-picking' - just an adequate BS detector. Even the scientists who collected the FTL neutrino data didn't believe it. If data doesn't meet a common-sense test or match physical theory and no explanation can be found, THEN physical theory needs revision. Usually an explanation can be found after further scrutiny. Spencer & Christy's satellite data showing global *cooling* is another case in point. The fact this may be the best we have or that it's a helluva scientific achievement to even be able to produce it does not mean you should trust the results beyond the uncertainties stated and even then show some skepticism.(As a recap, this particular thread began a few days back when I noted that Wipneus's shadow area numbers had gone up for two consecutive days, and one member responded that area had NOT gone up, based on the fact that Wipneus's numbers for those two days only were corrupt and inaccurate.)
It's worth noting that the three days following the uptick saw 365k in losses. The gains were a mirage. bbr's statement that you can't always trust daily numbers was nothing outlandish. Anyone that follows these numbers knows it's true. What was the point of criticizing it?
I hesitate to pollute this thread with this type of meta-analysis, but it's become less and less fun to read the comments when more and more I see nothing but harsh criticisms of others *opinions.*
Seems to me that the 2016 GATF (Great Arctic Toilet Flush) could potentially be getting ready to take place. The 2016 GPAC (Grand Persistent Acrtic Cyclone) has compacted the ice, and now the dipole is going to come in a flush it out the Greenland meltway.
This has certainly been an interesting year in the arctic.
Big big drops of extent fellows.
These must be accurate! They adhere well to the established theories around.
NSIDC area (*) is becoming a neck and neck race with only 132k behind 2012.
Date "NSIDC area"
2015-08-27 3.384752
2010-08-27 3.365565
2008-08-27 3.290108
2011-08-27 3.128499
2007-08-27 3.117733
2016-08-27 2.649995
2012-08-27 2.517081