Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Off-topic => The rest => Topic started by: JimD on January 07, 2016, 04:17:06 PM

Title: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on January 07, 2016, 04:17:06 PM
We have had the US topic here for some time.  Seem's like one on Europe is long due.  After all big disruptions are likely there long before they really impact the US.

Here is a nice start - though there have been dozens of good choices over the last couple of years.  This is going to leave a mark as the saying goes.

Germany

Quote
The assaults and harassment of women by groups of young men of Arab or North African descent have hit Cologne like a bombshell. The shocking incidents are a turning point for German society, says DW's Volker Wagener.

Under the cover of darkness they gathered in large numbers - right in the center of Cologne. They were drunk. They groped under skirts and blouses. There is no doubt about who the perpetrators were: they were young, male and looked North African or Arab.
Unfailingly, this has brought the migration and refugee debate to a new level.....

That includes strengthening the police.
How can dozens of women be at the mercy of the assailants, with no protection whatsoever? A seasoned police officer pinpoints law enforcement's helplessness, saying that filing crimes away is all they can do these days. Germany's police union has already said there probably won't be a single conviction. The police simply lack the personnel needed to conduct effective criminal proceedings.
....

http://www.dw.com/en/opinion-red-alert-in-cologne/a-18962912 (http://www.dw.com/en/opinion-red-alert-in-cologne/a-18962912)

Quote
A spate of alleged sexual assaults and robberies at New Year's Eve festivities in the German city of Cologne has fueled a political firestorm over immigration in Germany.

Ninety criminal incidents, a quarter of which were sexual assaults, were reported following New Year's Eve celebrations in the city, Cologne police told CNN.

Police said victims described the perpetrators as gangs of Arab or North African men. Many of the assaults were likely intended to distract, allowing attackers to steal mobile phones and other devices, police said.

Authorities said the crimes, including a rape, occurred around the train station, next to the western German city's landmark cathedral.....

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/05/europe/germany-cologne-new-year-assaults/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/05/europe/germany-cologne-new-year-assaults/index.html)
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on January 09, 2016, 08:56:47 PM
I sympathize with this somewhat.  I have put forward the opinion in other venues that what I would do with Americans who have become radicalized and want to leave the US to fight in Syria is not to arrest them as the FBI does.  But rather to facilitate their departure and then have an Executive Order in place to put them on the no-fly list as soon as they depart.  As soon as they land their passports are invalidated.  If we are lucky they will become martyr's and if not they can't get back here to cause us problems.

Quote
PARIS — The French police have carried out thousands of heavy-handed searches since the Nov. 13 Paris attacks, and a raft of new laws is poised to permanently concentrate even more power in the hands of the Interior Ministry.

Yet among civil libertarians, no government proposal has raised as much alarm as a recent one to strip citizenship from French-born dual nationals convicted of terrorism.

The idea, promoted by Prime Minister Manuel Valls, a Socialist with a conservative twitch, has struck at the core of France’s ideals of the rights of citizens, while underscoring the quandary the government faces as it confronts a widening threat from terrorists born and raised in France.

Quote
The reaction of the public has been far less heated, with polls suggesting that a large majority supports the idea of taking citizenship away from French-born terrorists, even if nobody considers it the antiterrorism silver bullet.

We just had 2 Iraqi immigrants arrested in the US for planning terrorist actions.  Polls indicate that the US public is largely in line with the sentiments of the French.  These types of issues in France
and the US will hurt the more liberal political parties as when faced with the kind of dangers posed by terrorism the majority of people are going to be much less accommodating of all inclusive liberal principals and much more oriented towards security.  It is a hardwired aspect of human nature.


http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/09/world/europe/french-proposal-to-strip-citizenship-over-terrorism-sets-off-alarms.html?ribbon-ad-idx=7&rref=world/europe&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Europe&pgtype=article (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/09/world/europe/french-proposal-to-strip-citizenship-over-terrorism-sets-off-alarms.html?ribbon-ad-idx=7&rref=world/europe&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Europe&pgtype=article)
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: johnm33 on January 12, 2016, 07:42:19 PM
Having doubled overall UK debt since coming to power the conservative government holds the biggest fire sale in history. http://truepublica.org.uk/united-kingdom/fastest-asset-stripping- (http://truepublica.org.uk/united-kingdom/fastest-asset-stripping-)
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on January 25, 2016, 03:46:13 PM
There are just too many items to excerpt here from the link.  A read will give a good impression how screwed up this situation is and how unlikely it can be resolved in any positive direction. 


http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/01/how-europe-will-fail-to-address-the-migration-crisis-in-early-2016.html (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/01/how-europe-will-fail-to-address-the-migration-crisis-in-early-2016.html)

Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on January 28, 2016, 03:52:39 PM
EU migrant crisis: Sweden may reject 80,000 asylum claims

Quote
Sweden may reject the asylum applications of up to 80,000 migrants and should prepare to deport them, the interior minister says.

Anders Ygeman said charter aircraft would be used to deport the migrants but it would take several years.
Some 163,000 migrants applied for asylum in Sweden in 2015, the highest per capita number in Europe.
The numbers have fallen significantly since Sweden imposed tighter border controls this year.

Yeah.  We'll see how this plays out. 


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35425735 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35425735)
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on February 23, 2016, 02:45:33 PM
Brexit

http://www.theweek.co.uk/eu-referendum (http://www.theweek.co.uk/eu-referendum)

https://theconversation.com/mayoral-maths-why-backing-brexit-was-the-only-option-for-boris-johnson-55194 (https://theconversation.com/mayoral-maths-why-backing-brexit-was-the-only-option-for-boris-johnson-55194)

http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=33017 (http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=33017)

Granularity coming your way?
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on February 24, 2016, 04:49:54 PM
Europe better hope that Russia and the US (if they are really interested in fixing the situation) can get some sort of order in place in Syria soon......

Quote
After a record 2015, migrants are coming to Europe three times faster this year

More than 100,000 migrants have arrived in Europe this year so far. That means in less than two months, migrant arrivals have already exceeded what took six months in 2015—and at this rate, the total number of people arriving in Europe should easily break last year’s record.
Greece alone has received 102,547 arrivals since the beginning of the year, according to the International Organization for Migration. The vast majority of migrants were Syrians, Afghans, Iraqis, Iranians, and Pakistanis, according to Greek authorities. Some were also from Morocco, Bangladesh, and Somalia...

Want to bet that some of Europe's politicians will be making The Donald look like a wishy washy version of a zenophobe?  Not that it will be easy to disagree with the sentiment.  If this goes on for long many parts of Europe will soon bear little resemblance to the past.

http://qz.com/623779/after-a-record-2015-migrants-are-coming-to-europe-three-times-faster-this-year/ (http://qz.com/623779/after-a-record-2015-migrants-are-coming-to-europe-three-times-faster-this-year/)
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: sesyf on February 25, 2016, 12:37:20 PM
Well, perhaps there is something taking place... we'llsee if this means much.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/24/vladimir-putin-takes-charge-of-syria-ceasefire-effort-russia (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/24/vladimir-putin-takes-charge-of-syria-ceasefire-effort-russia)

I'm sort of wondering that in Russia situation, with oil price, cost of doing even minor military action etc there is some weak hope that some progress will be made.

OTOH, Europe has something like 300 million people so few million refugees might have only local influence - but if politicians wish to promote some agenda they are of course usable source  material to whatever their policy is (xenophobia, racism, fear of other, vigorous new people to workforce.... )
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on February 25, 2016, 10:15:05 PM
Well, perhaps there is something taking place... we'llsee if this means much.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/24/vladimir-putin-takes-charge-of-syria-ceasefire-effort-russia (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/24/vladimir-putin-takes-charge-of-syria-ceasefire-effort-russia)

I'm sort of wondering that in Russia situation, with oil price, cost of doing even minor military action etc there is some weak hope that some progress will be made.

OTOH, Europe has something like 300 million people so few million refugees might have only local influence - but if politicians wish to promote some agenda they are of course usable source  material to whatever their policy is (xenophobia, racism, fear of other, vigorous new people to workforce.... )

Well Russia/Putin has certainly been a force for slowing down the disintegration in the region.  So we all owe him a measure of credit.  But there is of course no fixing the situation without a lot more blood being spilled.  Crushing ISIS and Nusra is required to really have a solid chance of some sort of political solutions and they are naturally not in favor of that.  Nor are they amenable to being coopted in any way.  It is do or die for them.  If this ceasefire (in name only really) can hold except for the 'official' terrorists then it may be possible to exert full effort on the ISIS/Nusra forces and do a really good job of removing any large scale influence they still have.  But his only applies to the Syria/Iraq theater.  BTW the Russians are basically funding what they are doing in Syria on their training budget as they are operating on a much smaller scale than the US is so low oil prices are not really a factor in this situation.

ISIS/Nusra will not be defeated so easily and they are well on their way to executing contingencies to ensure their survival and continuing struggle against modern civilization.  ISIS is well down the road to making Libya a major base of operations and will likely be the dominant presence there before they hit real opposition from the West.  It is pretty certain that in a year or two we will be seeing similar military efforts against them there by the US and the Europeans.  Unfortunately we will not likely have the Russians around to bail us out for that chapter of this long term conflict.  They most likely would prefer the international jihadi's that survive Syria/Iraq move on to Libya rather than return home to Chechnya and the other Republics to cause more mayhem there.

Not to mention all the other locations where both are currently establishing presences, like in various locations in Africa, their rise again in Afghanistan and so on throughout the Muslim world.

There is no end I think.  But the collateral damage these situations cause will be substantial over time.  It may seem like only a few million - if it is really that low I will be surprised - but the impact is already large and it will grow exponentially.  The cultural shock to the European countries will cause backlash as will the large jump in domestic terrorist actions.  Folks will only put up with so much of this.  And this is just the beginning of the migrations of refugees from war and climate change. It will never end in our lifetimes and it will get worse after we are gone.  Genocide is in our future I believe as there is no way to deal with the mass of folks who will be on the move and there is no place to put them.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on February 28, 2016, 01:08:02 AM
ISIS is moving to Libya to expand its regions of influence.  As the mess in Syria gets tamped down the natural place for them to concentrate next is Libya.  The US bombed an ISIS camp there  a few days ago and now we see that France is a bit more involved.  Though it must also be said that there are a host of mercenary/security contractors there already also.  The next game is about to kick off.

Needless to say this will blow back onto Europe just like Syria did.

Quote
The French daily 'Le Monde' revealed on Wednesday that France is currently engaged in a secret war against radical jihadist group ISIS in war-torn Libya with French special forces and intelligence operatives being deployed for covert operations in the North African nation.
Like Us on Facebook
France's covert military activities against the militants 'involved occasional targeted strikes against leaders of the ultra-radical Islamist group, prepared by discreet action on the ground, to try to slow its growth in Libya' as quoted in a report by the Business Insider.
...

http://www.newseveryday.com/articles/32121/20160226/french-troops-anti-isis-secret-war-libya.htm (http://www.newseveryday.com/articles/32121/20160226/french-troops-anti-isis-secret-war-libya.htm)

Quote
The Islamic State (ISIS) is taking on recruits faster than anyone can keep up with, and it’s heading towards Libya’s oil crescent, eyeing billions of barrels that a country at war with itself cannot protect—even with U.S. air strikes.

In mid-December, the United Nations brokered a power-sharing agreement between Libya’s rival factions, but there is no chance of implementing this. That means there is no chance that the Libyan government can fight back the advance of ISIS. Things are about to get messy, and U.S. air strikes will put only a small dent in a big problem.

According to U.S. intelligence figures, there are an estimated 6,000 ISIS fighters now in Libya, headquartered in the town of Sirte, as Oilprice.com has reported in the past. From here, they control hundreds of miles of coastline. There is nothing in Sirte they want; this is simply a strategic base.

ISIS fighters have also been tracked down to Benghazi, but here they have not solidified control yet. Still, Benghazi is an important recruitment venue. More specifically, this is where it can combine forces with it radical brethren in the form of Ansar al-Sharia and other radical factions. Benghazi is where ISIS gets bigger. And its pace of recruitment is faster than anything we’ve ever seen before. It absorbs new radical factions wherever it goes. The more successful its attacks and territory grabs, the more successful its recruiting becomes. In Libya, the former prowess of Ansar al-Sharia has quickly waned. ISIS is more brutal, and more decisive. It’s either join or be killed.

ISIS’ ability to launch attacks is not limited to Sirte, which is just the staging ground, or even to Benghazi. It can attack pretty much anywhere using hit-and-runs and suicide bombings.

So what is it after? There is a multipronged strategy here. The first is to get closer to Europe. The second is to get closer to Africa. The third is to get closer to more oil revenues to fill quickly depleting coffers in Syria and northern Iraq.....

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Unable-To-Halt-ISIS-March-Towards-Libyan-Oil.html (http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Unable-To-Halt-ISIS-March-Towards-Libyan-Oil.html)
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on February 29, 2016, 02:22:58 AM
It's going to be a tough year for the EU.

Quote
A spectre is haunting Europe. A "contagion" of referendums, fuelled by British Prime Minister David Cameron's decision to hold an in-out vote in June, risks pulling the European Union apart, its leaders fear.

Across the continent, campaigners are demanding plebiscites to opt out of key planks of EU policy, or to quit the bloc altogether.

Its advocates call it direct democracy. In Brussels, they call it populism and blackmail.
......

http://www.afr.com/news/world/referendum-contagion-threatens-to-paralyse-europe-20160228-gn62ro (http://www.afr.com/news/world/referendum-contagion-threatens-to-paralyse-europe-20160228-gn62ro)
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on February 29, 2016, 03:23:54 PM
Anarchy just 300 miles from Europe.  More on the new ISIS base in Libya

Anatomy of the coming catastrophe.

Is there any doubt that America and Nato will be knee deep in this mess soon?  And Russia is not going to help us this time.

Quote
After Colonel Qaddafi’s fall, with minimal violence and friendly interim leadership, Libya had moved quickly off the top of the administration’s agenda. The regular situation room meetings on Libya, often including the president, simply stopped. The revolt in Syria, in the heart of the Middle East and with nearly four times Libya’s population, took center stage.

Libya, Mr. Ross said, “was farmed out to the working level.”

The inattention was not just neglect. It was policy.

“The president was like, ‘We are not looking to do another Iraq,’” said Derek Chollet, then handling Libya for the National Security Council. “And by the way, the Europeans were all along saying: ‘No, no, no, we’re doing this. We got it. We believe in Libya. This is in our neighborhood.’”


Quote
While the C.I.A. moved quickly to secure Colonel Qaddafi’s chemical weapons, other efforts fell short. “There was one arsenal that we thought had 20,000 shoulder-fired, surface-to-air missiles, SA-7s, that basically just disappeared into the maw of the Middle East and North Africa,” recalled Robert M. Gates, the American defense secretary at the time.

Quote
The weapons that had made it so hard to stabilize Libya were turning up in Syria, Tunisia, Algeria, Mali, Niger, Chad, Nigeria, Somalia, Sudan, Egypt and Gaza, often in the hands of terrorists, insurgents or criminals.

In the fall of 2012, American intelligence agencies produced a classified assessment of the proliferation of arms from Libya. “It was like, ‘Oh, my God,’” said Michael T. Flynn, then head of the Defense Intelligence Agency. “We’ve not had that kind of proliferation of weapons since really the end of the Vietnam War.”

A cynical line would begin to circulate in Washington: In Iraq, the United States had intervened and occupied — and things had gone to hell. In Libya, the United States had intervened but not occupied — and things had gone to hell. And in Syria, the United States had neither intervened nor occupied — and things had still gone to hell.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/libya-isis-hillary-clinton.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/libya-isis-hillary-clinton.html)
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on June 24, 2016, 02:36:45 PM
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/06/brexit-the-crisis-begins.html (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/06/brexit-the-crisis-begins.html)

This is going to leave a mark. 

Who knows where this goes but we can be certain of one thing: the UK is going to have a lot less money to pay for adapting to or avoiding the worst of climate change.  The ripple effects of this across the world will be interesting to see.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: Neven on June 24, 2016, 04:43:48 PM
The EU is a monstrosity because it serves the interest of bureaucrats and big business, but that means you have to improve it, you have to fight fort it, and you will have to do so always, as with many things in life.

You don't just walk away, because it feels so good down in your belly and you enjoy saying 'fuck you' to people. Looks like the babyboomers are adamant on taking everyone with them to their graves.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 24, 2016, 05:40:43 PM
Maybe the Brexit will give a boost to Trump's campaign:

http://qz.com/715052/britains-brexit-debacle-shows-how-donald-trump-could-still-win/ (http://qz.com/715052/britains-brexit-debacle-shows-how-donald-trump-could-still-win/)

Extract: "If Britain’s decision to leave the European Union is any indication, Americans cannot become complacent about Donald Trump."
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: magnamentis on June 24, 2016, 06:03:37 PM
The EU is a monstrosity because it serves the interest of bureaucrats and big business, but that means you have to improve it, you have to fight fort it, and you will have to do so always, as with many things in life.

You don't just walk away, because it feels so good down in your belly and you enjoy saying 'fuck you' to people. Looks like the babyboomers are adamant on taking everyone with them to their graves.

+1

let it be at that true statement to avoid heated debates but one thing i wanna throw in: one day it could be that we (they) look back and ask whether that was worth it, or answer directly with a NO. what i have in mind here is peace as the topic above all others. only joint people, even if they fight, rarely shoot at each other and don't get me wrong, i don't mean GB agains EU, the trigger is yet unknown and the first combatants as well,

to make an example, an event in sarajevo ended events in a totally different corner of the continent.

i'm not saying or predicting but i consider it as proven that wherever fights are avoided the base for it is a feeling to belong and in the oposite case to not belong oneself or others should not belong.

can't go any further here but i'm sure that at least some get my point in general while the reminder is about terms.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: Theta on June 24, 2016, 06:10:53 PM
As much as I'd agree that getting out of the European Union is a good thing for the people and the environment, it is kind of redundant now that we are kind of at a point where the knock off effects of the Brexit are just going to bring about the destruction of the earth itself through multiple different apocalyptic consequences: http://guymcpherson.com/2016/06/a-town-hall-discussion-in-chico-california-part-iii/ (http://guymcpherson.com/2016/06/a-town-hall-discussion-in-chico-california-part-iii/)

Yes it's good to fight for something good, but it can also be a waste of time.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 24, 2016, 10:16:52 PM
As everyone knows, without need of any proof, "good (natural/sustainable systems) always triumphs over evil (unnatural systems)" in the end.  So no matter how much damage denialist manage to achieve, in the end mankind will inevitably move towards more sustainable systems.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: ChrisReynolds on June 25, 2016, 08:15:29 AM
The EU is a monstrosity because it serves the interest of bureaucrats and big business, but that means you have to improve it, you have to fight fort it, and you will have to do so always, as with many things in life.

You don't just walk away, because it feels so good down in your belly and you enjoy saying 'fuck you' to people. Looks like the babyboomers are adamant on taking everyone with them to their graves.

I couldn't agree more Neven.

The vote to leave was an economically illiterate decision that will leave the UK poorer. I had a call from one of my customers yesterday. They're going to be sending a new (reduced) schedule of work and a new production line they had been planning last year (on hold since the referendum was announced) is now an indefinitely suspended project, with engineers from an EU country now evaluating the plans.

It's really hard to assess the hit, I was looking at it yesterday morning. My best guess, a minimum -8% hit on net earnings for my branch of the company, the last 5 years have seen strong (>3%) year on year increases I suspect that will change. But as I discuss in my most recent blog post, the 'Brexit' campaign were quite open about all this.

This is the opinion of one of their lead economic advisors.
Quote
Over time, if we left the EU, it seems likely that we would mostly eliminate manufacturing, leaving mainly industries such as design, marketing and hi-tech. But this shouldn’t scare us.
Patrick Minford of the Economists for Brexit.

Something like 17 million British people just voted for that!
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: Laurent on June 25, 2016, 09:31:42 AM
And You have Scotland that is globally pro Europe. They will want an other referendum soon (may be).
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: pikaia on June 25, 2016, 10:08:21 AM
The vote to leave was an economically illiterate decision that will leave the UK poorer.
I keep hearing that, but nobody in the Remain campaign actually explained why, and as an economic illiterate I want to know. I am not willing to take it on trust. I have tried to find out but still haven't got a straight answer, so perhaps you can explain. What can your business do within the EU that you couldn't have done if it didn't exist?
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: Neven on June 25, 2016, 10:26:14 AM
I don't know about all the intricacies involved with Brexit, but as soon as extreme right-wing folks, including climate risk deniers, who can only destroy and not build up, are all for it, I know there's a 99% chance I'm against it.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: Laurent on June 25, 2016, 11:10:54 AM
The problem is none of them brexit or non brexit are right. The Europe must be reconstructed completely from the base, the Europe has been made by bankers (Giscard D'estaing among them (ex french president)). Neven is right you can't trust these bloody deniers and others extreme right wings. Is it possible to change the EU from within, I don't think so, the process is locked. I think before reshaping EU we have to reshape our own countries. I repeat we are not in democracy and as long it is so we are in trouble. How to do ... do no let the "representatives" write the constitution. Create a pool of people, choose by random to create one (because the constitution is suppose to control whose who are in power)... well you could say, it would be impossible to by pass the already existing systems... I think what we want to apply at a national or a EU level can be apply locally (town or smaller).
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: pikaia on June 25, 2016, 11:22:48 AM
On one hand we have Nigel Lawson, a climate change denier who favours Brexit, but on the other hand we have Cameron, who seems to be wrong about everything. He thinks that the UK is not overcrowded, and he has also made me a second class citizen for the crime of being single, so how can I trust the judgement of a man like that?
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: be cause on June 25, 2016, 11:31:09 AM
here on the border in Ireland a local diesel launderer is converting vehicles to suit the new people-smuggling opportunities .. it's an ill wind ...
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: silkman on June 25, 2016, 11:46:40 AM
Neven

I couldn’t agree more.

I’m still in shock following Thursday’s result and I’m struggling to get my head around what we’ve just done to the future of my six grandchildren.

The referendum campaign was a travesty, fought on both sides with soundbites, untruths and xenophobia stirred up by the popular press and was ultimately decided on a single issue that became totally conflated with EU membership – immigration.

In reality it became a plebiscite on the effectiveness of our self-interested, metropolitan political class and the decision was an understandable urge to wish a plague all their houses – Corbyn as well as Cameron.

But we now have to live with the consequences and the challenges are substantial. Just like the ice in the Arctic the resultant storm is creating cracks and fissures everywhere. Whoever picks up the poisoned chalice of Government (and even that’s unclear!) will have to face Scottish devolution, renewed pressures for a united Ireland, disputes over Gibraltar and a myriad of other challenges as well as addressing the issue of EU exit and the resultant need for new trade deals.

Climate change I’m afraid won’t get a look in though the resultant recession may seem to solve the problem for a while.

And what’s really most frightening is we have no “Brexit” government in waiting. We don’t even seem to have a plan:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/a-pyrrhic-victory-boris-johnson-wakes-up-to-the-costs-of-brexit (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/a-pyrrhic-victory-boris-johnson-wakes-up-to-the-costs-of-brexit)

I think one of Roger McGough’s poems sums it up well:

I wanna be the leader
I wanna be the leader
Can I be the leader?
Can I? I can?
Promise? Promise?
Yippee I'm the leader
I'm the leader

OK what shall we do? 
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: ChrisReynolds on June 25, 2016, 12:08:57 PM
The vote to leave was an economically illiterate decision that will leave the UK poorer.
I keep hearing that, but nobody in the Remain campaign actually explained why, and as an economic illiterate I want to know. I am not willing to take it on trust. I have tried to find out but still haven't got a straight answer, so perhaps you can explain. What can your business do within the EU that you couldn't have done if it didn't exist?

The basic problem with the exit campaign can be easily understood without getting bogged down in detail. Virtually all independent studies by qualified economists found a serious detrimental impact to the UK economy from a UK exit from the EU. When challenged in TV debates the exit campaigners did the following things.

1) Tried to answer the question with an answer to a different question.
2) Claimed those doing the studies were biassed, or ignored the study discussed and made this point about another study.
3) Pointed out that economists and their models have got things wrong in the past.
4) Appealed to the unique and special nature of the British people.

Does this seem familiar? (Typical tactics of AGW deniers and other nuts)

For detail however take just one issue. They said we'd get a tariff free access to the Eurozone after leaving because we buy German cars. This argument not only neglects the need to avoid 'contagion' of leave referendums by making it easy for the UK. It neglects the fact that someone buying a BMW is going to be less put off by a 4% tariff barrier than a manufacturer buying engine parts. The equation is not equal both ways. I've just bought some pipettes that were about 25% more expensive than the cheaper ones, were I buying 1000 of them I'd not just have used a hunch that they looked better quality and a 4% price difference could swing my choice.

They also said that the USA would never consent to being part of something like a United States of Europe. Er... it's called the United States of America for a reason!

At every turn I was seeing gaping holes in their arguments that made me marvel at just who they were meant to be persuading, i.e.  the uncritical and stupid, key ingredients of nationalism.

***

Basically my business services the manufacturing sector (I don't want to give enough details to identify us because I have been indiscreet above, sorry).  Anything that hits British manufacturing hits us. Directly or indirectly (Euro firms or suppliers to Euro supply chains) most of British industry depends on Europe. As I was saying yesterday to someone at work, and have posted in a reply to someone on my blog: If the EU gives the UK favourable terms a lot of Europe will think they can leave but keep the benefits. To combat this contagion of exit referenda the EU must play hard in the coming negotiations, that has already started (Jean-Claude Junke this morning).

How did I expect that? I am not psychic, it's what I have done before in the cut and thrust of business and it is exactly what I would do in Junke's position. In fact, I'd offer the UK the same terms as any other country outside the EU without a special agreement (3.7% import tariff +VAT) and word it so it was clear this was my first and final offer.

Laurent,

I agree, but imperfect doesn't mean you chuck it in. We (UK) should have voted in, then joined together with others across Europe, as happened with the scrapping of TTIP. Europe and the drive to a United States of Europe is a worthwhile idea, it rests upon the people to work for it.

Has anyone watched Russia Today? Their angle, direct from the Kremlin, is that this is the start of the collapse of Europe with other countries seeking referenda. My general rule of thumb - if the Kremlin wants it, I want the opposite. (They're still bloody communists)
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: ChrisReynolds on June 25, 2016, 12:13:27 PM
here on the border in Ireland a local diesel launderer is converting vehicles to suit the new people-smuggling opportunities .. it's an ill wind ...

ROFLMAO!

Pikia,
Same here. I'm hard working, but I don't have a family, and it's all aimed at hardworking families. Cameron did quite a few things right, raising the tax threshold meaning lowest paid workers don't pay tax, gay marriage. He was a lot better than the little englander racists that will now take charge.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: LRC1962 on June 25, 2016, 01:36:36 PM

http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/analysis/2462689/brexit-the-green-economy-reacts (http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/analysis/2462689/brexit-the-green-economy-reacts)
In seeing the results this week, what the future holds concerns me.
IMO this is more a reaction of voting against the establishment. Last year Canadians voted Liberal more as a protest vote against the then current ruling party then for the present ruling party.
In the US election you are seeing similar results with the surprising runs of Sanders and Trump. Looking farther back that is the core reason for the Arab Spring, also the Occupy Wall Street movement. The problem is that when you dismantle what you have and exchange it for an alternative then you are depending upon the alternative to have a coherent thought out direction in which to go.
As history has shown, more often then not many times all the energy has been used getting a coalition to dismantle what was but there is not enough agreement among that group as to where we should go from there. This brings us to the problem of the environment. History again can show that it can be very beneficial but on the other hand it has been known to be disastrous.
The question I  have is that if the ones who voted for Brexit are among the same group who believe that going green is the reason for all our financial mess and use their same votes to dismantle any green venture then needed changes could be postponed even longer and that would be very bad news for all concerned.
Imagine if Trump wins election for similar reasons? Horrors. :o :'(
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: SATire on June 25, 2016, 01:57:05 PM
Is that Brexit good or bad for EU, the still united K., AGW issues, and some "collapse" dynamics?

Just some thoughts without any final conclusions - such need much more time for observations:

(1) Firstly that Brexit is a great win for freedom: The existence of freedom is most clearly prooved by the possibility to decide utterly wrong e.g. against practical constraints.

(2) The Brexit is a proove, that politics still has all the power and poeple (like e.g. Merkel) stating "European unification is irreversible and without alternative" were wrong: Politicians (e.g. Cameron) did achieve that "reversion" even if they actually didn't want to do it. It is good to know that we still have all the chances and thus all responsibilities for what we do.

(3) I think the real economy will not be hit very hard by that Brexit. Of course the Banks in London and elsewhere are hit hard, the letterbox companies in Gibraltar are rendered useless and other "non-real just money stealing business models" will starve. This could be a good thing for most poeple and a bad thing for the ugly few. Other economies will win/loose a bit here and there since the pound gets cheaper but may/may not rise later - just BAU.     

(4) The freedom of people to move will be limited a bit more - not by much since UK was allready outside Schengen, thus the "flow of refugees" argument was similar BS as the "350 million pound/week"-lie. But students have more problems without Erasmus, other people will have to do the work the Polish poeple did so far, English people living at the Mediterranean may have to go back... Similarly the freedom of the people to move their money arround will be limited a bit more - which is a good thing because it is a fair consequence.

(5) For the environment on the British island the Brexit could be a giant step back - just remember how dirty England was before the European regulations kicked in. Most EU-regulations make a lot of sense since they also protect most people from the power of the few rich people. For AGW it probably could be a tie between win/loose: The benefit of a smaller economic growth could be compensated by more pollution on the island.

(6) The really bad thing for British politics: In future there is no Brussels to blame for own mistakes. They are blamed themselfes.

(7) later more from me or you...
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: charles_oil on June 25, 2016, 02:02:38 PM
Really sad time for Britain - our (now "their") place in the world will be diminished and I am sure there will be a reduction on UK contribution to research / science knowledge etc.  So long to spend infighting and reeling from the effects of this crazy decision. 
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: pikaia on June 25, 2016, 02:39:21 PM
IMO this is more a reaction of voting against the establishment.
There is anecdotal evidence that some people voted for Brexit as a protest, not believing it could happen. And there is now a petition on the Government's website to have a rerun of the vote. Over 1 million signatures!

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/petition-second-eu-referendum-crashes-house-of-commons-website (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/petition-second-eu-referendum-crashes-house-of-commons-website)
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: magnamentis on June 25, 2016, 02:40:31 PM
I don't know about all the intricacies involved with Brexit, but as soon as extreme right-wing folks, including climate risk deniers, who can only destroy and not build up, are all for it, I know there's a 99% chance I'm against it.

exactly, "Qui Bono" ?

always good to see who wants what and why and applies to many topics of life.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: SATire on June 25, 2016, 02:56:20 PM
I don't know about all the intricacies involved with Brexit, but as soon as extreme right-wing folks, including climate risk deniers, who can only destroy and not build up, are all for it, I know there's a 99% chance I'm against it.

It has been found a better term describing such folks, since they are not only "extreme right-wing". Here they are called "aggressive reactional Internationale" to put them all in a bowl: http://www.zeit.de/2016/25/rechtspopulismus-alexander-gauland-donald-trump-marine-le-pen (http://www.zeit.de/2016/25/rechtspopulismus-alexander-gauland-donald-trump-marine-le-pen)

that term could also fit to Farage, Putin, Le Pen, Trump, Gauland...   
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on June 25, 2016, 07:36:23 PM
A comment about some of the responses.

1.  I really liked SATire's response and would emphasize for the non-EU readers (and maybe for some of them as well I guess) is that the EU structure is not a democratic institution but rather a form of an autocracy or authoritarian political structure.  In other words the voters have lost their sovereignty to make their own decisions and this generates serious opposition even under good circumstances.  Trying to compare the EU political structure to an almost US one is way off base as they are very different animals.  Not that the US is truly democratic, but compared to the EU it is.

The fact of number 1 above and economic status are far more indicative of ones likely position on the Brexit than anything to do with climate change denial.  Here in the US the folks who are drifting into serious opposition to the PTB (i.e. the single party dual faction of the Democrats and Republicans) are driven by economic status and it has nothing to do with climate change denial as can be seen by the huge numbers supporting Sanders and Trump - almost none of Sander's supporters are climate deniers and a good percentage of Trump's are not either.

The poor, the working class, the lower middle class and the middle middle class are and have been getting gutted by the economic system built by the 1%ers and their hired thugs.  They are not unaware of this and they are reaching the point where they are taking action.  That these actions may not make their situation any better is not the relevant metric to be using as that is a typical argument (or propaganda) pushed by the thugs who work for the 1% - if you have no hope in the system built around you it makes sense to tear it down. .  "Do what we say and not what we do?"  The situation has reached the point where such messaging (whether true or false) is automatically discounted as worthy of consideration.  If you lie to folks almost all the time then when you are telling the occasional truth you should be under no illusion that you will be trusted or believed.  Make no mistake about it the forces behind Hillary are lying just as often as Trump is and everyone is aware of that.  The working paradigm of our civilization is breaking down due to the various stresses we sometimes discuss here. 

The 'leave' voters are in the process of tearing down the system to a form which is less complex.  This is happening all over the place and not just by voters but also from other factors kicking in (see Venezuela for an example) .  It is part of the collapse dynamic and it will be repeated in spades uncounted times as we go forward in time.  There will always be a complexity argument as to why decreasing complexity has some downside to it, but it is going to happen anyway as the civilizational system can no longer support certain complexities they will fall by the wayside.  There is no guarantee that what is dropped is the best choice just as many of the levels added on in the past were not good choices either - as there is no rational process involved in their creation or destruction many times.

The EU has been a dead man walking for a long time and it has no future in the world that is coming towards us at an increasing rate.  Many things which at one time seemed like good ideas are going to go away as we will no longer have the means to maintain them.  It is just what it is.


BTW there is a great discussion to be had on how bad President Hillary is going to be in terms of accelerating collapse.  Her strong neocon foreign policy positions (The Empire forever!) are certain to have serious ramifications for not only us here in the US but also for the EU as NATO and the countries of the EU will be under strong pressure to further escalate the conflict with Russia.  There is no way this is in the interests of anyone who lives in Europe.

And Chris - to continue to describe Russia as "bloody communists" is pretty clueless.  Indeed I did not find much of anything in your response which indicates an understanding of anything beyond your wallet.  What is happening is not about what you are talking about in any meaningful sense.  And I note that you support Junke's indication that the EU should 'punish' the UK as much as possible (like they did to Greece?) in order to make a scary example of them to dissuade others to seek their own sovereignty?  It worked really well last time all right.  Not only is this supporting dictatorial actions from a non-elected entity on another exercising its rights..it will only make the situation far worse.  If the EU tries to really punishes the UK do you not think that this will have serious negative consequences?  The people of the UK will react badly and it will only embolden those in other EU countries who feel the same way as the voters in the UK who decided to depart.  Tearing the UK up will accelerate the collapse process not slow it.  And it is inevitable in any case.  So managing the decline is the better path perhaps than going all in on BAU.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: SATire on June 25, 2016, 08:27:08 PM
1.  I really liked SATire's response and would emphasize for the non-EU readers (and maybe for some of them as well I guess) is that the EU structure is not a democratic institution but rather a form of an autocracy or authoritarian political structure.  In other words the voters have lost their sovereignty to make their own decisions and this generates serious opposition even under good circumstances.  Trying to compare the EU political structure to an almost US one is way off base as they are very different animals.  Not that the US is truly democratic, but compared to the EU it is.
...
Thanks for the flowers. But I do not agree with with your words like "EU structure is not a democratic institution but rather a form of an autocracy or authoritarian political structure". That does not fit.

The democratically legitimated structures in Europe are the nations and only the nations. The individual governments in Europe decided to give some competences to some central bodies via a treaty between nations (e.g. Maastricht treaty). There is no European constitution and thus the European parliament can not set up the government. There was a plan to create a constitution but that was cancelled by elections in some countries.

Thus the European executive is the "European Commission" (which consists of people send from the governments of the nations) and the "Council of the European Union" (which are the prime ministers of the nations). The governments of the nations are of course democratically legitimated and the European executive is in this way, too. More details here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union

You see there is no reason to blame "Brussels" or "the EU" for any European laws or flaws: Every law existing in the European Union was agreed by all governments of all the member states. If you do not like a law or regulation blame your government and elect an other one.

The problem is of course that there are 28 (soon 27) governments which tried hard to find compromises and quite often make "dirty deals" to applease some local people. E.g. we have some strange regulations about cars (worked out by the German car industry lobby and forced to law by German government)  or strange regulations about banana (to help French over-see plantages) and the "British discount". Such things are annoing but compromises are a political basis and most of the time more democratic than a simple yes/no referendum about a complex matter - such only helps populist since only they have the simple (and very wrong) answers.
 
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: ChrisReynolds on June 25, 2016, 08:45:56 PM
Jim,

OK, Communists was lax, Russia is a kleptocracy run by former communists.

There are nascent leave referendum campaigns in several EU states. Yes? OK, so lets look at two scenarios. 1) The EU offers the UK generous terms of access without commitment, in which case the rest of Europe's leave tendencies may be increased and the entire EU unravels. 2) The EU offers 'punitive' terms, say the 3.7% import duty (IIRC) applied to any non-EU importer from a state without an explicit agreement.

In the case of 1 you set about the destruction of the EU. In the case of 2 you set about a process that drains industry from the UK and relocates it in the EU, whilst providing a solid example that deters people from voting to leave.

Which of the two options are in the interests of the EU?

The EU makes up 45% of the UK's export, the UK makes up 16% of Intra-EU exports. Intra EU trade is considerably more important to the EU than is UK trade.
http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/after-brexit-how-important-would-uk-trade-be-eu#.V27CedQrKt8 (http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/after-brexit-how-important-would-uk-trade-be-eu#.V27CedQrKt8)

How does that frame the coming Article 50 negotiations?

Once again, were I in Junke's shoes I'd play very hard, I'd probably not drop below a 3% tariff. And I would rely on the draw-down of operations into the EU from the UK due to that tariff barrier to offset any short term loss for the EU from loss of UK trade. Nothing personal, it's hard business calculations.

The UK, and any other EU member state can go it alone and very likely see a decline in GDP, which feeds through into a decline in living standards. Being poorer but having more sovereignty is a choice. Managed decline? Let me know when you get a government voted in that promises that. I remain the only person I know who doesn't have a car (that's because of AGW, I can afford one, I put away over £1k per month in savings and investments).

BTW - Greece isn't being punished they're paying the debt for living a financial fantasy for decades.

PS
FT.com Will the banks leave the UK for Europe?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/52d968b0-3a52-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/52d968b0-3a52-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html)
Probably yes, moves are starting.
Morgan Stanley were reported on the day of the referendum as being in the progress of shifting some operations out of London. They denied this fairly rapidly - nobody wants to create any more instability right now.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: ChrisReynolds on June 25, 2016, 08:59:01 PM
The demographics of the exit vote.
http://blogs.ft.com/ftdata/files/2016/06/brexit-big-five.png (http://blogs.ft.com/ftdata/files/2016/06/brexit-big-five.png)
From FT
http://blogs.ft.com/ftdata/2016/06/24/brexit-demographic-divide-eu-referendum-results/ (http://blogs.ft.com/ftdata/2016/06/24/brexit-demographic-divide-eu-referendum-results/)

The exit voters may have 'Brexited themselves in the foot'
http://blogs.ft.com/ftdata/files/2016/06/brexit-exports.png (http://blogs.ft.com/ftdata/files/2016/06/brexit-exports.png)
Areas with high exports to the EU have high votes for exit.  ;D

I really must find out what the sea ice is doing.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: SATire on June 25, 2016, 09:08:34 PM
There are nascent leave referendum campaigns in several EU states. Yes? OK, so lets look at two scenarios. 1) The EU offers the UK generous terms of access without commitment, in which case the rest of Europe's leave tendencies may be increased and the entire EU unravels. 2) The EU offers 'punitive' terms, say the 3.7% import duty (IIRC) applied to any non-EU importer from a state without an explicit agreement.

In the case of 1 you set about the destruction of the EU. In the case of 2 you set about a process that drains industry from the UK and relocates it in the EU, whilst providing a solid example that deters people from voting to leave.

Which of the two options are in the interests of the EU?

Chris, I think you can be very sure that there will be fair negotiations. Merkel and co. and even more the people want to be in good neighbourhood. So expect something similar like the deals with Norway, Swiss or Island. But of course not much better, since that would not be fair to them.

So if UK wants to participate on the common market with same rules like Norway, then UK must follow the EU regulations and continue to send money to Brussels. It is not clear to me if the English people would except that, since all the things the populists promised will not happen in that case: Polish people will stay, European people will come, all regulations will stay active (but without any chance to prevent a regulation). So negotiations will become "interesting" and I can understand that Cameron does not want to start that. Someone with "nuts" is needed.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: ChrisReynolds on June 25, 2016, 09:31:01 PM
SATire,

Perhaps I am being a bit negative about the negotiations. However from what I've been reading over the last few days it really looks like they'll be quite hard. My reading of the situation would support a hard stance, and various commenters are saying the same thing.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/brexit-surprises-european-politicians-1466745582 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/brexit-surprises-european-politicians-1466745582)
Of relevance: One French commentator on BBC news was describing reactions of the people she knew, she described an element who were cracking out the Champagne on Friday night celebrating a nuisance gone.

The longer we string things out and subject the Eurozone to uncertainty the less patience they may have. We'll have to see what this week brings. Will Cameron invoke article 50 or stick to waiting for October?

Anyway, the 3.7% I remembered must be from a transaction in my previous job. It turns out that tariffs are very very variable,
https://twitter.com/ftdata/status/745902120575049728/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw (https://twitter.com/ftdata/status/745902120575049728/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: SATire on June 25, 2016, 10:21:04 PM
There is still the strange possibility, that the British parliament decides not to leave the EU just by not pressing the button of article 50. The referendum is not binding. http://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2016-06/eu-ausstieg-brexit-parlament-verbleib (http://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2016-06/eu-ausstieg-brexit-parlament-verbleib)

I have no clue what the British people would do in such case... But remember Tsipras did something like that after the referendum in Greece.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: Neven on June 26, 2016, 12:02:12 AM
JimD, I sympathize with the sentiment and the general distrust that people have towards TPTB, but not if they then let themselves sheepishly be used by Adolf-light-populists like that horrible Farage and those other reactionary nitwits.

The EU is not the enemy, just like terrorism, immigrants and climate change regulation aren't. The enemy is the system that has been built around the interests of the 1%. As long as we the people do not demand a cap on how much someone can own and make, nothing will ever change to the better.

The system will find a way to use Brexit to serve its own interests. And if Brexit doesn't go through, no problem either, proceed as planned.

If you set hard limits on what someone can achieve in material terms, a lot less people will get caught in their egotistical ambitions.

I really believe this is the only solution that has any chance of being successful.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: silkman on June 26, 2016, 01:30:00 AM
  So managing the decline is the better path perhaps than going all in on BAU.

Therein lies the rub.

If I felt that the success of the Leave campaign and the consequent destabilisation of the structure of the U.K. and of Europe had anything to do with the concept of a transition to a new order that recognised the unsustainability of BAU (Green or otherwise) I'd be cheering from the roof tops.

The sad fact is that the driving force behind this outcome is an attempt to shore up the UK's position in the old world driven by exponential growth. It's all about "controlling our borders". We don't need a wall, except in Ireland, but the basic thought process is identical to Trump's solution.

Unquestionably the EU has a massive democratic deficit but it has to date played a positive role in nurturing fledgling democracies across the continent. I happen to think that is a platform to build on and not to disparage and destroy.

I'm also of the view that the UK as a mature parliamentary democracy, despite or maybe even because of its colonial history, should be playing a key role in addressing the obvious challenges created by the Brussels plutocracy.

We desperately need to start moving towards a new order that recognises that it's in the best interests of everyone to abandon the economics of exponential growth and to work towards the more equitable distribution of wealth that is needed to inhibit both conflict and migration.

This maybe pie in the sky and a collapse of society may be inevitable but I fail to see why I should do anything other than to try to realise that dream.

With that in mind it terrifies me that the victorious Brexiters have no clue as to what they intend to do next but one thing is for sure - "managing the decline" is not on their agenda.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: TerryM on June 26, 2016, 01:35:07 AM
I was blindsided by Brexit and have done no prior research as to the ramifications


How will NATO be affected?
Will Britan remove troops and armament from Europe, particularly those now threatening Russia's borders?
Merkel said that Nato should be strengthened only a few days after the German FM accused NATO of "warmongering".  What effect will Brexit have on the already confusing relationship between Germany and Nato?


What will Brexit do to the Paris Accord?
 Were all agreements between nations, or did the EU sign on collectively?
 Will Britain be tempted to also withdraw from this agreement, or will she push for higher emission reductions?
 Will reduced funding limit mitigation efforts by both parties, or will less expensive, less polluting alternatives be rushed out to lessen the financial shock?
 
How will America's ties to both play out?
 Obama, in what appears to be a turn, around now assures Britain that her "special relationship" with America won't change. Is this true and is it also true of America's relationship with the EU?
 
Will Britain sustain sanctions against Russia - will the EU?


So many questions.
Terry
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: magnamentis on June 26, 2016, 03:03:34 AM

In the case of 1 you set about the destruction of the EU. In the case of 2 you set about a process that drains industry from the UK and relocates it in the EU, whilst providing a solid example that deters people from voting to leave.

a great pleasure to read here, you and @neven are spot on imo especially the above quoted, even though that's no guarantee that they will take that path, is the key argument. they can't let the brits get away with it without pain, else EU-Doomsday is imminent. let's see.

however, not much sense to underline and repeat every point made hear but you nailed it and neven's point of view as well is spot on. one can argue left and right, back and forth but at the end those are the essentials.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: sidd on June 26, 2016, 07:23:33 AM
I am faintly surprised that no one has brought up the possibility that Europe might be better off without Britain.  There used to be very old phrasing most recently reincarnated in Maoist literature referring to "running dogs of  capitalism." It is hard to deny that the UK has functioned as one such for the capitalists in NY and DC in efforts to weaken the European Union, most lately observed in reaction against financial and privacy controls.

https://vimeo.com/85914510

Sir Humphrey Appleby: "Minister, Britain has had the same foreign policy objective for at least the last 500 years: to create a disunited Europe. In that cause we have fought with the Dutch against the Spanish, with the Germans against the French, with the French and Italians against the Germans, and with the French against the Germans and Italians. Divide and rule, you see. Why should we change now when it's worked so well?"

James Hacker: "That's all ancient history, surely."

Sir Humphrey Appleby: "Yes, and current policy. We had to break the whole thing [the EEC] up, so we had to get inside. We tried to break it up from the outside, but that wouldn't work. Now that we're inside we can make a complete pig's breakfast of the whole thing: set the Germans against the French, the French against the Italians, the Italians against the Dutch. The Foreign Office is terribly pleased, it's just like old times."
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: ChrisReynolds on June 26, 2016, 07:24:44 AM
There is still the strange possibility, that the British parliament decides not to leave the EU just by not pressing the button of article 50. The referendum is not binding. http://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2016-06/eu-ausstieg-brexit-parlament-verbleib (http://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2016-06/eu-ausstieg-brexit-parlament-verbleib)

I have no clue what the British people would do in such case... But remember Tsipras did something like that after the referendum in Greece.

SATire,

I think that would be very very dangerous. On Thursday, the day of the referendum, several of the women in the office were already claiming the ballot would be rigged (actually I  don't personally know anyone who voted exit, apart from at work). That is really rather insane reasoning! And we have already had a political murder as a result of the heated nationalistic rhetoric used by the exit campaigners.

Take this away from the 17 million who voted to leave and we could see the rise of extreme right wing parties who might actually get elected.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: ChrisReynolds on June 26, 2016, 07:42:36 AM
Magnamentis. Thanks.

Sidd,

Great quote from Yes Prime Minister.

I agree, there is another angle too: On our news it is being reported that the EU is already talking of internal reform. My advice to people in the EU is to act fast. This summer lobby your MEPs and local representatives, get out and campaign, if you can get the numbers; March in your capitals and regional centres. Use the UK's mistake and the EU's fear of contagion to try to forge a new and more democratic Europe.

In short, I think the EU could benefit greatly from the loss of the UK, but a lot depends on the people.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: GeoffBeacon on June 26, 2016, 08:56:42 AM
WELL PAID WITH HOUSES VOTED TO REMAIN BUT THE POOR HAD MORE VOTES

The Independent's 16 maps and charts that explain the EU referendum (http://indy100.independent.co.uk/article/16-maps-and-charts-that-explain-the-eu-referendum--WJxnqF24aNZ) is very interesting. One chart shows that people with high house prices tended to vote to remain. So did the more educated - and the young.

Also high pay areas vote in and low pay areas voted out. As a nation, the UK screwed the poor and are surprised they voted against us rather better off who have been given small fortunes by owning property.

HOUSING HAS SCREWED THE POOR AND YOUNG

The idealistic young didn't seem to notice, I suspect especially those that rely on the bank-of-mum-and-dad (who are property owners).

In the UK  we have really screwed the young and the poor through the housing market (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/dont-the-young-know-we-have-screwed-them/). To be fair to them we should have a shock for the housing market (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/a-shock-for-the-housing-market/) and provide starter homes at a fraction of current prices - possible for low impact developments if the racket in planning permission is sorted.

The economic blow of Brexit might be softened (just slightly) for the poor when a house prices fall.

PHYSICS TRUMPS POLITICS

But back in the real world where physics trumps politics. (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/green-wash-from-stern/)

We need a very different approach to living (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/the-green-settlement-handbook/) if we are to eke out our tiny remaining carbon budgets. (https://dontlooknow.org/2016/04/27/carbon-budget-shock-4-years-remaining/)

All the "sustainable developments" I have come across (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/three-failed-eco-towns/) are simply greenwash.

P.S. I think of new green settlements as an extension to Neven's “Il faut cultiver notre jardin”

P.P.S. pikaia. OVERCROWDING!!! AGAIN!!!

Quote
Cameron, who seems to be wrong about everything. He thinks that the UK is not overcrowded,
The UK isn't overcrowded. London has an average density of 51 pepple per hectare, rising to 200 in parts.  The rest of the South East has a density of 4.5 people per hectare. There is room for several London's in the South East and to use the much used fact: There is more space taken by golf courses in Surrey than is built up.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: pikaia on June 26, 2016, 09:46:04 AM
P.P.S. pikaia. OVERCROWDING!!! AGAIN!!!

Quote
Cameron, who seems to be wrong about everything. He thinks that the UK is not overcrowded,
The UK isn't overcrowded. London has an average density of 51 pepple per hectare, rising to 200 in parts.  The rest of the South East has a density of 4.5 people per hectare. There is room for several London's in the South East and to use the much used fact: There is more space taken by golf courses in Surrey than is built up.
So if we built several Londons in the South East it still wouldn't be overcrowded? It might be physically possible to squeeze a hundred million more into Surrey, but would any sane person  prefer to live in such a place? Would you enjoy living in an urban jungle, with nature concreted over?

Already most of our land is either covered with tiny houses packed shoulder to shoulder, or farmland which is incapable of feeding everyone so that it has to be supplemented by imports, or else only fit for sheep. Where is the unused land to feed and house even more people?
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: SATire on June 26, 2016, 11:10:52 AM
I am faintly surprised that no one has brought up the possibility that Europe might be better off without Britain.  There used to be very old phrasing most recently reincarnated in Maoist literature referring to "running dogs of  capitalism." It is hard to deny that the UK has functioned as one such for the capitalists in NY and DC in efforts to weaken the European Union, most lately observed in reaction against financial and privacy controls.

[...]

Sir Humphrey Appleby: "Yes, and current policy. We had to break the whole thing [the EEC] up, so we had to get inside. We tried to break it up from the outside, but that wouldn't work. Now that we're inside we can make a complete pig's breakfast of the whole thing: set the Germans against the French, the French against the Italians, the Italians against the Dutch. The Foreign Office is terribly pleased, it's just like old times."

As the EU is a win-win situation the Brexit clearly is a loose-loose. EU will be left with a smaller common market and UK without any but the absolute loose is about the same. In rest EU it is just devided over more partners and thus easier to carry.

To comment about your "Britain messing up EU": Some things like that happened (e.g. blaming the German austerity the reason for Greek crisis while UK rejecting any solidarity). But others in EU acted similar quite often, too. We know each other quite well in our family. It is better to do such "messing up" in a common house, since then all have to remove the shit together after the party with some educational effects. If we are sitting all in our own houses again it is to risky that some of the houses might catch fire for some reason... 
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: GeoffBeacon on June 26, 2016, 01:38:16 PM
pikaia

CONCRETE??

The gap between your view and mine may be too large to bridge. I believe I am trying to come to terms with the physical reality of climate change and still envisage a quality of life that most people would like. That may now be impossible but to give it a try we must cut consumption and therefore cut production so I warm to silkman saying

Quote
Climate change I’m afraid won’t get a look in though the resultant recession may seem to solve the problem for a while.

But this won't cut consumption nearly enough. The consumption we must cut includes


So no new concrete cities. In my mind (&elsewhere (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/)) I plan idyllic green settlements where I don't have to live next to motorists. They have wooden houses, most food locally produced, clean air, lots of bicycles &etc.

If real climate disaster is to be avoided consumption must be cut quickly as our remaining carbon budgets are tiny and production cannot be decarbonised quickly enough.

After BRexit I feel ashamed to be British but the EU's plans for cutting emissions have been pathetic. Any Brexit recession in Europe will be tiny compared to what is required by the physics of climate change.

Physics trumps politics and economics.

Yes. Physics wins, humanity looses.


Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: Theta on June 26, 2016, 02:02:51 PM
pikaia

CONCRETE??

The gap between your view and mine may be too large to bridge. I believe I am trying to come to terms with the physical reality of climate change and still envisage a quality of life that most people would like. That may now be impossible but to give it a try we must cut consumption and therefore cut production so I warm to silkman saying

Quote
Climate change I’m afraid won’t get a look in though the resultant recession may seem to solve the problem for a while.

But this won't cut consumption nearly enough. The consumption we must cut includes

  • Building with concrete and steel
  • Driving cars
  • Flying in planes
  • Eating beef and lamb
  • &etc

So no new concrete cities. In my mind (&elsewhere (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/)) I plan idyllic green settlements where I don't have to live next to motorists. They have wooden houses, most food locally produced, clean air, lots of bicycles &etc.

If real climate disaster is to be avoided consumption must be cut quickly as our remaining carbon budgets are tiny and production cannot be decarbonised quickly enough.

After BRexit I feel ashamed to be British but the EU's plans for cutting emissions have been pathetic. Any Brexit recession in Europe will be tiny compared to what is required by the physics of climate change.

Physics trumps politics and economics.

Yes. Physics wins, humanity looses.

Seems a brexit recession is enough to cause global dimming loss and the death of earth well before 2030
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on June 26, 2016, 03:34:07 PM
JimD, I sympathize with the sentiment and the general distrust that people have towards TPTB, but not if they then let themselves sheepishly be used by Adolf-light-populists like that horrible Farage and those other reactionary nitwits.

The EU is not the enemy, just like terrorism, immigrants and climate change regulation aren't. The enemy is the system that has been built around the interests of the 1%. As long as we the people do not demand a cap on how much someone can own and make, nothing will ever change to the better.

The system will find a way to use Brexit to serve its own interests. And if Brexit doesn't go through, no problem either, proceed as planned.

If you set hard limits on what someone can achieve in material terms, a lot less people will get caught in their egotistical ambitions.

I really believe this is the only solution that has any chance of being successful.

Hmmm...

In a perfect world perhaps?

The basic issue I have with how Chris and many are framing the argument is that they are approaching this issue in a manner similar to those who advocate what I call the Green BAU solutions to climate change issues.  In other words what they are doing (or saying in the comments above) are all good in their own way but they do not and cannot properly address the core of the issue and thus are not solutions.  Green BAU does not solve climate change since it does not address the core causes of it and the comments above are of a tactical nature when the problem is strategic.

How can one make an argument about how the masses are supposed to rationally think of these types of situations and then present them some sort of road map to a solution?  How are the ones doing this going to be perceived by them as any different than the populists you so disagree with?  The methods of manipulation you so decry in the populists are not materially different than the propaganda spewed out by the main stream media which is in the employ of the PTB is it?  You do realize that the masses are not really stupid about these things.  Literally everyone knows that almost everything they are told by the media, the politicians, the spokesman for the ruling class, and anyone who is well off is basically a lie intended to manipulate them into some actions which will benefit the speaker more than it will benefit them.  This is a certainty of life and how human interaction works.  Is it not?  In those circumstances all choices are bad and the worst perceived evil is the one which currently has the most power over you.

So when Neven tells them this
Quote
The EU is not the enemy, just like terrorism, immigrants and climate change regulation aren't. The enemy is the system that has been built around the interests of the 1%. As long as we the people do not demand a cap on how much someone can own and make, nothing will ever change to the better.
and, even if Neven really means what he says, the way it is going to be perceived is that it is just another argument to work within the system that we have been hearing for a 100 years and what this type of action always results in is the 'system' dragging its feet for years and diluting change and the folks on the bottom ending up with less or nothing.  That is the sum of the experiences of their lives and you ask them to be rational in their decision making?  But the rational thing to do in their circumstances is pretty hard to describe and it asks them to do something which few humans are capable of.  Let us not forget we are not rational decision makers us humans.

People are not really letting themselves be sheepishly used by the populists any more than they have been by the PTB are they.  To them it is just one side fighting with the other.  They are not totally ignorant that both sides are lying to them.


Side stuff:

I do have particular disagreements with Chris on Russia even after his modification.  Kelptocrat's to some extent (but we can hardly complain about that when our 1%er's make them look like pikers - right?), but I don't see any of them in any definitional way being any sort of communists.  But it is also not an important point in the decision process of how to deal with them. 

SATire in trying to define the EU as any real democratic system one has to dance around what democratic means pretty fast.  There is next to zero accountability in Brussels and the various countries are played off each other and only select ones have much say in matters and not in a particularly democratic way at that.  Guess we will just not agree on this issue.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: ChrisReynolds on June 26, 2016, 03:47:10 PM
Geoff,

I do get extremely annoyed by the meme that we have ample room (so can invite unlimited numbers of immigrants from all over the world). The UK is far too overcrowded already.

How do we define overcrowded?

The answer is IMO very simple.

The UK imports 40% of total foodstuffs.
http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/issue/uk.html (http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/issue/uk.html)

UK Land usage does not permit for an immediate transition of other categories of land to food production. In any case there is not enough land to immediately transition to food.

Category / 1000hectares / %useage
Agriculture   15333   67%
Forestry   3059   13%
Urban   2748   12%
Other   1658   7%
Total    22798   

One might argue that we could convert pasture to crops, but this could not happen within one growing season. And much pasture is land unsuitable for crops, e.g. upland and wet flood plain pasture.

Thus if some catastrophe were to happen that led to other countries ceasing exports in order to feed their own population. If the catastrophe did not affect domestic food production we would face severe difficulty feeding our population, but would probably just about manage with organised rationing. In the event of a massive volcanic event, comet/meteor impact or some climatic event (tipping point) that does affect food production it seems we would have no choice but to let some people starve to death, especially if the catastrophic event happened in the Spring.

Thus we probably need to drop our population not increase it.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: ChrisReynolds on June 26, 2016, 04:04:31 PM
Jim,

"Politics is the art of the possible.", so said Otto Von Bismarck.

I said above in my reply to you that I am the only person I know who doesn't own a car because of AGW, everyone at work drives to work and flies on holiday. When you and people like you are able to persuade say 50% of people to stop driving and flying we might be at a point where we can seriously talk about reducing CO2 and a paradigm shift. Until that point, I am sorry, but I view claims that we should shift the paradigm from the existing one of exponential growth as idle day dreams. So I will continue to reason under the prevalent paradigm.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on June 26, 2016, 04:13:40 PM
  So managing the decline is the better path perhaps than going all in on BAU.

Therein lies the rub.

If I felt that the success of the Leave campaign and the consequent destabilisation of the structure of the U.K. and of Europe had anything to do with the concept of a transition to a new order that recognised the unsustainability of BAU (Green or otherwise) I'd be cheering from the roof tops.

The sad fact is that the driving force behind this outcome is an attempt to shore up the UK's position in the old world driven by exponential growth. It's all about "controlling our borders". We don't need a wall, except in Ireland, but the basic thought process is identical to Trump's solution.

Unquestionably the EU has a massive democratic deficit but it has to date played a positive role in nurturing fledgling democracies across the continent. I happen to think that is a platform to build on and not to disparage and destroy.

I'm also of the view that the UK as a mature parliamentary democracy, despite or maybe even because of its colonial history, should be playing a key role in addressing the obvious challenges created by the Brussels plutocracy.

We desperately need to start moving towards a new order that recognises that it's in the best interests of everyone to abandon the economics of exponential growth and to work towards the more equitable distribution of wealth that is needed to inhibit both conflict and migration.

This maybe pie in the sky and a collapse of society may be inevitable but I fail to see why I should do anything other than to try to realise that dream.

With that in mind it terrifies me that the victorious Brexiters have no clue as to what they intend to do next but one thing is for sure - "managing the decline" is not on their agenda.

A good post. 

If I thought that either side in this political dustup had any chance of meaningfully executing plans to deal with climate change I would be full on in support of them...but sadly I have watched them and thought about what they are doing and are capable of doing and come to the conclusion that none of them are serious about our long term survival.  To me it is just two BAU camps at war over whose hands will be on the levers of the technology which is being used to prop up our totally unsustainable civilization.  The data does not lie - the climate change and carrying capacity problems cannot be solved with anything like our current population levels or even an average 3rd world standard of living. 

Any proposed answer to the existential problems we face which does not include population reductions as its core platform is dead on arrival.  So neither path out of this vote leads to any long term positive change.




pikaia

CONCRETE??

The gap between your view and mine may be too large to bridge. I believe I am trying to come to terms with the physical reality of climate change and still envisage a quality of life that most people would like. That may now be impossible but to give it a try we must cut consumption and therefore cut production so I warm to silkman saying

Quote
Climate change I’m afraid won’t get a look in though the resultant recession may seem to solve the problem for a while.

But this won't cut consumption nearly enough. The consumption we must cut includes

  • Building with concrete and steel
  • Driving cars
  • Flying in planes
  • Eating beef and lamb
  • &etc

So no new concrete cities. In my mind (&elsewhere (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/)) I plan idyllic green settlements where I don't have to live next to motorists. They have wooden houses, most food locally produced, clean air, lots of bicycles &etc.

If real climate disaster is to be avoided consumption must be cut quickly as our remaining carbon budgets are tiny and production cannot be decarbonised quickly enough.

After BRexit I feel ashamed to be British but the EU's plans for cutting emissions have been pathetic. Any Brexit recession in Europe will be tiny compared to what is required by the physics of climate change.

Physics trumps politics and economics.

Yes. Physics wins, humanity looses.




Geoff's comment, to me, is where this discussion's real value is.  The point is not the tactical reasons for exit or not.  Nor is it the tactical decisions regarding what the EU and the UK should do going forward as it relates to the partial dissolution of the EU.  The point is that this is partial collapse in action right before our eyes.

It is a process well underway in many other places around the globe.  If I had been asked where I thought the first few meaningful locations where collapse would manifest itself 5 years ago I almost certainly would not have picked the EU.  But here it is.  So what does this mean?  Does it mean, contrary to what seemed logical, that the most technologically advanced and wealthy locations are actually the most fragile and thus subject to collapse first?  Or not?  It is a good question.  Does the rise of Sanders and Trump here in the US, the Exiter's in the UK, and the populist parties around the developed world indicate that we are much weaker than we thought?

The world is full of failed and failing states (and the US seems bound to accelerate this phenomenom - Hillary's past actions only promise even more of it) which are undergoing some form of collapse.  Perhaps the global recession currently underway will be accelerated by this decision and it will quickly spread across the developed world like it has the developing world.  A distinct possibility I think.   Following on the footsteps of 2009, from which we saw no meaningful recovery, another deep global recession would likely take us down another full step along the path to deep collapse.  This is how collapse is likely to progress.  The system sets after a decline at a point where it can hold on for a time, the stresses of climate change and carrying capacity continue to build, at the next inflection point the system breaks again and falls to the next point of temporary stability.  And the process repeats.  Until we reach the point where population and resource needs are balanced with their effects on the climate and global carrying capacity there is no other thing which can happen.  BAU solutions will not solve this problem.

We can learn from this situation if we step back from the tactical level and look at our long term prospects.  Using the most optimistic possible viewpoint (one I clearly do not hold) we still have some chance to change the outcome if we radically overhaul our current civilizational structure, dramatically reduce population, and so on.  Collapse takes decades but it does not stop until one reaches sustainability.  Meaningful actions now will have positive long term benefits.  Tactical decisions will have no effect.

Anyway I am rambling.  It is 7 am and I need some coffee. 
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on June 26, 2016, 04:18:34 PM
Jim,

"Politics is the art of the possible.", so said Otto Von Bismarck.

I said above in my reply to you that I am the only person I know who doesn't own a car because of AGW, everyone at work drives to work and flies on holiday. When you and people like you are able to persuade say 50% of people to stop driving and flying we might be at a point where we can seriously talk about reducing CO2 and a paradigm shift. Until that point, I am sorry, but I view claims that we should shift the paradigm from the existing one of exponential growth as idle day dreams. So I will continue to reason under the prevalent paradigm.

Well in all my years of arguing about this stuff I am not aware of ever changing anyone's mind and really have no expectations of doing so (though I did once).  So 50% is beyond my means unfortunately. 

I fully agree that changing the paradigm of our approach to civilization is likely far beyond our capabilities as we as a species do not actually reason our way to anything.  I just cannot let the argument go I guess. 

In any case, cheers!.  I like to read all your stuff and find it valuable.  I mean no personal disrespect.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on June 26, 2016, 04:24:15 PM
Here is a great blog post.  It address's many of my viewpoints about whether the EU or the US are democratic institutions.

http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2016/06/undemocratic-liberalism.html#comments (http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2016/06/undemocratic-liberalism.html#comments)
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: SATire on June 26, 2016, 05:20:46 PM
SATire in trying to define the EU as any real democratic system one has to dance around what democratic means pretty fast.  There is next to zero accountability in Brussels and the various countries are played off each other and only select ones have much say in matters and not in a particularly democratic way at that.  Guess we will just not agree on this issue.
JimD, I did not try to define something. I tried to explain it. To make "my dance" easier to understand also for people in USA: The EU is not a state. Thus it does not matter if the EU itself is democratic. All accountability is in the governments of the states, which are the 28 democratic legitimated members and which all agreed to the treaties.

I am really tired of reading that the EU is to be blamed for this or that. Blame the governments, which made the treaties. Blame the people who elected thoose government. Blame todays government that they are not able to allow any progress. Blame todays people that they did not start the "grass root canal therapy" of the EU yet (cited words stolen from 2 Swiss authors here: http://www.zeit.de/politik/2016-06/eu-nationalismus-europaeische-integration-buergernaehe (http://www.zeit.de/politik/2016-06/eu-nationalismus-europaeische-integration-buergernaehe) ).
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: ChrisReynolds on June 26, 2016, 05:21:31 PM
Jim,

The respect is mutual. You might have noticed, I rarely say how pessimistic I am about the prospects for dragging things to a more intelligent direction. At the moment we really are no better than yeast or bacteria...

Anyway, the reason I don't tend to express that pessimism is I don't want to reduce the chances for a change and for someone to get a solution I haven't thought of. So I'll shut up now.  :)
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: OldLeatherneck on June 26, 2016, 05:39:17 PM
Here is a great blog post.  It address's many of my viewpoints about whether the EU or the US are democratic institutions.

http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2016/06/undemocratic-liberalism.html#comments (http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2016/06/undemocratic-liberalism.html#comments)
JimD

Thanks for sharing that link.  There's a lot of food for thought in that, and much of it is not easy to digest.

Other than that, I've been thinking about how Brexit will impact any efforts to curb AGW/CC.  In the short term, the governments of Europe are going to be forced to focus on managing Britain's exit from the EU rather than focus on Climate Change.  In the long term, a weakened EU with growing social unrest and the rise of right wing nationalist movements will not be cohesive enough to take the necessary and painful steps to address the looming threat of Climate Change.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 26, 2016, 07:00:20 PM
The World Economic Forum's New Champions ("summer Davos") is taking place this week (June) in Tianjin, China, and TPTB project a negative view of Brexit and a positive view of the coming technological singularity (or Fourth Industrial Revolution).  I believe that TPTB are also very sensitive to the lack of sustainability of our current situation and that they have two solutions in mind: (a) If populism/nationalism leads to excessive rates of decline, they will use military law to impose restrictions comparable to what the feudal lords used to address the "Tyranny of the Commons" problem; or (b) If societal collapse can be held off long enough then they view themselves as "New Champions" of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.  Both of these topics are discussed in articles posted at the weforum.org website linked below:

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/06/brexit-is-hot-topic-at-summer-davos (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/06/brexit-is-hot-topic-at-summer-davos)

Extract: "Ian Bremmer, President and Founder, Eurasia Group
"You are talking about the diminishment of the most important alliance in the post-war order, the transatlantic relationship, which was already before Brexit at its weakest since World War Two. You're talking about not only the removal of the UK from the EU, but you're also talking, I think reasonably likely, about the eventual disintegration in further part of the UK itself. And you're also talking at the very least about the severe diminishment of what the EU actually means, its footprint globally, its common values and its ability to continue to integrate.""


https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/06/highlights-of-day-one-at-the-annual-meeting-of-the-new-champions-2016 (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/06/highlights-of-day-one-at-the-annual-meeting-of-the-new-champions-2016)

Extract: "Britain's recent decision to leave the European Union and its economic implications for the rest of the world dominated the conversations, with several experts taking a gloomy view.
"It could be – I’m not saying it is going to be – the beginning of the disintegration of the European Union or the Eurozone," said Nouriel Roubini, the economist who predicted the 2008 housing crash in the United States."
But it wasn't all about Brexit. Not entirely. There were other dazzling moments in a day of illuminations and bright ideas. New technologies, for instance."
With regards to new technologies, the theme of the January 2016 Davos World Economic Forum was: “Mastering the Fourth Industrial Revolution”.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/11/what-is-the-theme-of-davos-2016 (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/11/what-is-the-theme-of-davos-2016)

Extract: "Earlier Industrial Revolutions advanced human progress through new forms of power generation, mass production and information processing. Building on a ubiquitous and mobile internet, smaller, cheaper and more powerful sensors, as well as artificial intelligence and machine learning, the Fourth Industrial Revolution is distinct in the speed, scale and force at which it transforms entire systems of production, distribution, consumption – and possibly the very essence of human nature.

“There are many challenges in the world today, and I feel that one of the most intense and impactful will be shaping the ‘Fourth Industrial Revolution’ – driven by the speed, the breadth and the complete ‘systems innovation’ of technological change underway. The challenges are as daunting as the opportunities are compelling. We must have a comprehensive and globally shared understanding of how technology is changing our lives and that of future generations, transforming the economic, social, ecological and cultural contexts in which we live. This is critical, in order to shape our collective future to reflect our common objectives and values,” said Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum."

In short, TPTB are placing a big bet on AI (as the critical factor in a Fourth Industrial Revolution) as discussed further in the "Adapting to the Anthropocene" thread:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1308.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1308.0.html)

Edit: In other words the first option of military law (say by the US GOP-led Congress declaring an endless war on ISIS [which triggers NATO obligations of support from Europe including from a Brexit UK], leading two WWII type rationing and Japanese-style internment camps for "others") would result in "democracy without rights"; while for the second option an AI dominated singularity would result in "rights without democracy" (think how Millennials are quick to give-up privacy in order to easily get what they want from a smart internet dominated by Google's AI et al) .
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: oren on June 26, 2016, 07:26:45 PM
In the long term, a weakened EU with growing social unrest and the rise of right wing nationalist movements will not be cohesive enough to take the necessary and painful steps to address the looming threat of Climate Change.

Very interesting thread.
To generalize on OLN's comment - the coming collapse will reduce global ability to deal with global issues such as emissions and climate change, refugees, carrying capacity and overpopulation etc. and therefore will serve as a positive feedback to enhancing the problems at hand, and keeping solutions away, thus bringing additional collapse faster.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: GeoffBeacon on June 26, 2016, 09:38:15 PM
Chris

Thanks for the link to The UK imports 40% of total foodstuffs (http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/issue/uk.html) from foodsecurity.ac.uk. I don't remember coming across them before.  As yu point out they say
Quote
But although the UK has a thriving farming sector – it exported £12Bn of food and drink in 2007 (ref 2) – Britain is not self-sufficient in food production; it imports 40% of the total food consumed and the proportion is rising (ref 1). Therefore, as a food-trading nation, Britain relies on both imports and thriving export markets to feed itself and drive economic growth.
This uses the language of the UK Department of Business Information and Skills (BIS) who are now the sponsoring department of the Met Office. It's agribusiness language.

Food security has concerned me for a while e.g.  Food: Scientists vs amateurs. (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/food-whos-right-scientists-or-amateurs/)
(2011) which starts

Quote
  • In Ireland before the famine, potatoes, with some milk and pigs could support a population density approaching 10 people per hectare.
  • The world now has about 0.5 people per hectare.
  • That’s about 5% of the population density of pre-famine Ireland.

So the problem is not food (calories, protein & etc.) per. se.

The problem is that the rich (i.e. us) turn lots of food growing capacity into not much food at all. Foods like beef and lamb require many more times the land area (and other resources) than fruit, vegetables and pulses.

We may also be betting too much on “scientific” agriculture. By “scientific” I mean agriculture that attracts research funding. I got caught between advocates of gardening, permaculture, horticulture recently and three “scientific” professors from Rothamstead Research and the UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council.

I characterise the gardeners as “the amateurs” and the professors as “the scientists”. Starting with claims the “gardening can’t feed the world” from one the professors I found none of the professors knew anything much about the topic.
I think it is still the case that “the scientists” know too little about food production that isn't agribusiness, partly because it's quite difficult to say what terms like  “support a population density” mean but also because there is little or no research funding of the type that agribusiness and lobbied governments can dish out.

“The amateurs” aren't too much help, it's difficult to find anything with numbers in their claims that can be checked.  The best I have done is find an old article that I was allowed to republish, Food and permaculture. (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/food-and-permaculture/) by David Blume. He starts

Quote
I wrote this in response to post to the bioregional listserve from a woman at ATTRA who said something like “Of course you couldn’t feed the world with such a hippy-dippy, hunter-gatherer, landscape system like permaculture.” Well that got me a little steamed so this is what I wrote.
Here are his points


I'm not sure how to interpret this. I does seem to be a factual account and, at the moment,  I trust David Blume more than foodsecurity.ac.uk who say

Quote
Should crop yields be significantly affected by the decline in insect pollinators, or even a small proportion of the British sheep population succumb to bluetongue, exports would be curtailed, jobs would be lost, and food wasted. Furthermore, culling sheep or cattle would have a knock-on effect on other meat prices, sending them spiralling.
So "culling sheep or cattle would have a knock-on effect on other meat prices" but the bonus would be a substantial cut in our carbon emissions. In my view climate trumps a highly carnivorous diet.

Quote
unlimited numbers of immigrants from all over the world

That's another question altogether.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on June 26, 2016, 09:48:57 PM
As the link is self explanatory I won't even say anything more than think how much worse it is going to get.

http://www.theplaceswelive.com/ (http://www.theplaceswelive.com/)
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: SATire on June 27, 2016, 10:17:28 AM
[...]   I've been thinking about how Brexit will impact any efforts to curb AGW/CC.  In the short term, the governments of Europe are going to be forced to focus on managing Britain's exit from the EU rather than focus on Climate Change.  In the long term, a weakened EU with growing social unrest and the rise of right wing nationalist movements will not be cohesive enough to take the necessary and painful steps to address the looming threat of Climate Change.
In the short term you are surely right - everybody here is now busy with internal matters of EU. But on the long run there is a nice chance:
Now for everyone it is pretty clear, that the BS the aggressive reactionists are talking about could become a reality. And what then? What are the plans of Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage now? Today it seems as if they started thinking about that right now. E.g. using a time-machine and disappear into the past?

Starting with last Friday every populist in EU will have to give complex answers on the complex questions: What are your plans if you win the BS you suggest? They are in serious trouble.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: TerryM on June 27, 2016, 04:23:35 PM
The Pound and the Euro are both down, as is oil.
Britain's economy will take a hit, and so will Europe's. While CC may take a back seat, there may be even less enthusiasm for increasing military outlays. It's even possible that sanctions against Russia might be lifted to increase trade.
The sudden drop in crude prices is due to an expectation of less fuel being burned in both Britain and Europe & this is a positive for climate concerns. If this disruption should also result in more normalised relations with Russia it could end as a huge positive for everyone.
I'd assume that European governments will be doing everything they can to prevent any further defections. This might include halting immigration which most people seem to be opposed to, increasing trade to increase job opportunities, and possibly investing in climate change mitigation projects, again to increase jobs.
Terry
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: magnamentis on June 27, 2016, 05:03:34 PM
a bit of an exageration, typical news "headline making" the euro is quite stable within the range it has been for months, have seen 1.09 as well as 1.14 while 1.11, 1.10 1.09 was where it has spent most of the time.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 27, 2016, 06:00:20 PM
SkS calls Brexit: "Inter-generational theft"

https://www.skepticalscience.com/inter-generational-theft-brexit-climate-change.html (https://www.skepticalscience.com/inter-generational-theft-brexit-climate-change.html)

Extract: "The problem is of course that younger generations will have to live with the consequences of the decisions we make today for much longer than older generations. Older generations in developed countries prospered as a result of the burning of fossil fuels for seemingly cheap energy."

Furthermore, I read that the Paris Pact will need to be modified due to Brexit.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: TerryM on June 27, 2016, 08:01:56 PM
ASLR
In defence of fellow Boomers.


It seems as though those that were born in the EU voted to remain, while those born in pre-EU Britain prefered to return. Fear of the unknown as well as euphoric recall may explain part of the split.


My politics is of the far left & a good part of the reason is that I'm old enough to remember the world as it was before Reagan & Thatcher. I was teargassed in Berkeley while attending protests that eventually ended Vietnam. I remember friend's reactions to the Kennedy assassinations. When Watts exploded, when MLK was killed, and when Rodney King's assailants were freed, I was close to the turmoil.
I was young when the Cuban Missile Crisis almost killed everyone, and many years later I shook the hand of Khrushchev's son, and thanked his family for the fact that my family was alive.


We did negotiate great retirement packages, and gave up pay raises in the bargaining. We drove "muscle cars", built suburban sprawls, and kicked consumerism to levels never before imagined. We also cheered on Che Guevara, lived in communes, and preached love & tolerance.


Our parents had lived through the depression and WWII. Their heros herded neighbors into "detainment camps", wore military uniforms at formal outings and killed indians from horseback every friday night. I never understood the experiences that formed their mindset, and don't expect those under 50 to understand mine.


Remember that for every Chaney or Bundy there was a Lennon, a Hansen, or a Chaves.


Terry
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: be cause on June 27, 2016, 09:11:29 PM
Ironic that Cameron went to great lengths to make it difficult for the young to register to vote before the last general election ; when in the referendum he needed them like never before !
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 27, 2016, 09:52:14 PM
ASLR
In defence of fellow Boomers.


It seems as though those that were born in the EU voted to remain, while those born in pre-EU Britain prefered to return. Fear of the unknown as well as euphoric recall may explain part of the split.


My politics is of the far left & a good part of the reason is that I'm old enough to remember the world as it was before Reagan & Thatcher. I was teargassed in Berkeley while attending protests that eventually ended Vietnam. I remember friend's reactions to the Kennedy assassinations. When Watts exploded, when MLK was killed, and when Rodney King's assailants were freed, I was close to the turmoil.
I was young when the Cuban Missile Crisis almost killed everyone, and many years later I shook the hand of Khrushchev's son, and thanked his family for the fact that my family was alive.


We did negotiate great retirement packages, and gave up pay raises in the bargaining. We drove "muscle cars", built suburban sprawls, and kicked consumerism to levels never before imagined. We also cheered on Che Guevara, lived in communes, and preached love & tolerance.


Our parents had lived through the depression and WWII. Their heros herded neighbors into "detainment camps", wore military uniforms at formal outings and killed indians from horseback every friday night. I never understood the experiences that formed their mindset, and don't expect those under 50 to understand mine.


Remember that for every Chaney or Bundy there was a Lennon, a Hansen, or a Chaves.


Terry

Terry,

I appreciate all of your points, as I am also a boomer, who went to school at UC Berkeley, and my great grandfather road horses and shot-up the Old West, and I have lived the California dream my entire life (including being a vegetarian and being married to a woman whose family was interred in the Japanese-camps in WWII).  Nevertheless, the Brexit vote was not a vote about the past but about the future, and in my opinion is an example of the "Tyranny of the Contemporary" who are squeezing the young and future generations by myopically thinking about themselves in a self-serving/egotistical manner.

All the best,
ASLR


Edit: As a side note, I also believe that the communists had very large carbon footprints, so when I am talking about the "Tyranny of the Contemporary" I am not just talking about neo-classical/neo-liberal economic types like Ronald Reagan, but more about material values within a socio-economic system.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: johnm33 on June 27, 2016, 11:52:28 PM
A brief article by Steve Keen, who was in favour of 'brexit' but was surprised it happened, it links through to Forbes

    "The central planners in Brussels and at the ECB in Frankfurt are not unaware that under their command, a historically unprecedented economic dislocation has taken place in the EU during the past ten years, including massive asset and property bubbles, banking crises and large-scale unemployment in all the periphery countries – with over 50% youth unemployment in Greece, Spain and Portugal, as well as the lack of any serious controls of the EU external borders to prevent an influx of unparalleled numbers of illegal immigrants and economic migrants.

    However, the EU central planners are in denial about the fact that these problems have been caused entirely by their own misguided and disastrous policies. As a result, they argue that the solution to such problems can only be further concentration of powers into their hands … This United States of Europe, an undemocratic leviathan that the European peoples never wanted, is the culmination of the much repeated mantra of “ever closer union”.
  http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2016/06/27/what-next-after-brexit/ (http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2016/06/27/what-next-after-brexit/)
He makes no mention of the Italian banks being on the brink, or the underwater French bank, which has led to a restriction in the size of cash transactions, Spanish and Portuguese banks too are seriously at risk, if there was any way to save the bondholders it would have already been done, all that's left is extend and pretend. All of these countries need either a 'handout' from either Germany or the ECB or a devaluation, the first is not culturally possible for the Germans, the second impossible whilst they remain in the Euro.
[edit- spelling]
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: magnamentis on June 28, 2016, 01:22:22 AM
another one of those "a pleasure to read"

i enjoy a few of those almost every day and find it interesting albeit not surprising to find such
sophisticated content in exactly this forum, while one at times has to read all week long to find
such a concentration of quality content form various angles elsewhere. seems to be a good mix
in this place and the only thing that would make it even better for me woud be if it were in my
mother tongue :-) not to read but to write, that's where the the difficulty to write in a foreign
language at times is a bit frustrating. at least i hope that i was able to convey my compliments.

Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 28, 2016, 04:56:02 PM
The linked Scribbler article is entitled: "Britain Succumbs to Fear — Europe Shattered by Deteriorating Physical and Political Climate".

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/06/27/britain-succumbs-to-fear-europe-shattered-by-deteriorating-physical-and-political-climate/

Extract: "In Central India, during 2016, millions of farmers who have lost their livelihoods due to a persistent drought made worse by climate change are migrating to the cities. The climate change induced monsoonal delays and ever-worsening drought conditions forced this most recent wave of climate change refugees to make a stark choice — move or watch their families starve.
It’s a repeat of a scene that happened in Syria during 2006 through 2010, but on a much larger scale. A scene that will repeat again and again. In Bangladesh and the other low lying coastal and delta regions of the world, hundreds of millions will be uprooted by sea level rise. In the US Southwest, India, Africa, South America, the Middle East and Southern Europe hundreds of millions more will be uprooted by drought. All because we, as a global civilization, failed to work together to halt fossil fuel burning soon enough and prevent a temperature increase great enough to wreck cities, states, and regions and to start to destabilize human civilization."
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: Xulonn on June 28, 2016, 09:10:48 PM
Scribblers' writing style makes him sound like a fear-mongering rabble-rouser.

But what if he is correct? 
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 28, 2016, 09:37:23 PM
Scribblers' writing style makes him sound like a fear-mongering rabble-rouser.

But what if he is correct?

If ECS is closer to 4C than the current consensus value of 3C, you (we all) may soon be wondering why Scribbler erred so much on the side of least drama.

For example, the linked reference analyzes the CMIP3&5 results to conclude the ECS is likely 3.9C +/- 0.45C:

Chengxing Zhai, Jonathan H. Jiang & Hui Su (2015), "Long-term cloud change imprinted in seasonal cloud variation: More evidence of high climate sensitivity", Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065911
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: johnm33 on June 29, 2016, 01:03:39 PM
I rarely disagree with RS's take on things but he accepted the demonisation of the out voters, which was intended to shame them into voting 'in' as a fair description. Here's another economists view on the situation http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=33894 (http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=33894) it starts, "The class struggle is back! Who would have thought. After years of being told by the likes of John Major and then Tony Blair that “the class war is over” (Blair) and the we now all live in “the classless society” (Major) the working class has fought back, albeit under the motivation of the looney, populist Right rather than a progressive left, who remain a voice for capital. Remember when we were told that the Left-Right continuum was irrelevant now in this global world where nation states had given way to grand communities (like the EU) and that, in this new post-modern world, we could all be entrepreneurs (meaning we sell our labour to a capitalist!). And now we know that class never went away. It might have been hi-jacked by the Right but it is there – and it is powerful. Planet Earth to British Labour – do something about it or wither away and make way for a progressive new organised working class movement." Bill Mitchell is rarely brief and always full of links, sources and quotes, but I feel he nails it with this peice.
[added] Ok last link to someone economically literate, here's Peter Schiffer outlining what one of my fears is, that lots of stuff that needs to happen will happen now and it will be hung on the 'Brexit' vote.
"First of all, this is not about Brexit. Brexit is all the media. Brexit is the catalyst. It is like the match that lights the tinderbox. The markets are artificially propped up by central banks, by cheap money, by QE, and it’s all hype and hope. The markets never should have been where they were. And what Brexit is doing is challenging the belief that the markets have the confidence in central bankers to keep all these bubbles in the air…There’re a lot of dominoes that are going to come down. Yes, the Fed is going to use this maybe as an excuse to cut rates and do QE 4. It was looking for an excuse for a long time. But we have some real serious problems that go beyond what is happening in Britain.”
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 29, 2016, 05:10:18 PM
Carbon Brief provides the linked article entitled: "Brexit: 94 unanswered questions for climate and energy policy", that discusses areas where Brexit makes the fight against climate change harder and less certain to be effective:

http://www.carbonbrief.org/brexit-94-unanswered-questions-for-climate-and-energy-policy (http://www.carbonbrief.org/brexit-94-unanswered-questions-for-climate-and-energy-policy)

Extract: "… Rudd conceded that the referendum result had made the path to climate action harder, raising a host of questions. Adding to the air of uncertainty, there is now the prospect of a new Conservative prime minister being in place by September, as well as the possibility of a snap general election."
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: TerryM on June 29, 2016, 09:15:57 PM
ASLR


Small,small world. Power to the People. Roll with The Barb. Electric Kool Aid & Purple Owsley.


Regrew my beard at 65 since life as an over the hill hippy has it's attractions. Berkley was Sex, Drugs & Rock & Roll - in that order. Never felt the urge to actually enroll.


Terry
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 03, 2016, 06:43:23 PM
Another view.

Imagining the U.K. and the EU Three Years After Brexit
Quote
It's the summer of 2019, three years after British voters stunned the world by voting to leave the European Union. The U.K. has regained its economic and financial footing, as well as its national confidence. A smaller and more unified European Union now functions in a more coherent fashion.

But the road has been bumpy and, as a result, the global economy came close to recession, financial instability and more isolationist policies. Meanwhile, the global standing and influence of both the EU and the U.K. are much reduced....
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-06-28/imagining-the-u-k-and-the-eu-three-years-after-brexit (http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-06-28/imagining-the-u-k-and-the-eu-three-years-after-brexit)
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: VeliAlbertKallio on July 05, 2016, 01:05:11 AM
A few years ago a Turkish friend of mine suggested that the North Pole (escaping sea ice cap) will join the European Union rather than Turkey (whose EU membership negotiations had been progressing at glacial space). It rather seems - now - that the breaking polar vortex and changing jet streams are blowing the Britain towards North Pole instead. What does NSIDC models say about this outcome?  :P
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: SATire on July 06, 2016, 06:24:22 PM
A few years ago a Turkish friend of mine suggested that the North Pole (escaping sea ice cap) will join the European Union rather than Turkey (whose EU membership negotiations had been progressing at glacial space). It rather seems - now - that the breaking polar vortex and changing jet streams are blowing the Britain towards North Pole instead. What does NSIDC models say about this outcome?  :P
Your Turkish friend seems to be a master in understatement. Since Erdogan startet to orient towards Arabia and to islamic state the EU negotiations "progressed" like the calving front of Jakobshavn isbrae. In recent times that negotiations have been collapsing like the ice in that famous movie. "To be solved issues" increase every day (freedom of press, Turkey is now part of the international civil war in the near and middle east).

Regarding "blowing Britain towards the North Pole" I do not know what NSIDC computes. The Euro (ECMWF) model shows rapidly alternating rain/hail/sun but no storm all over Europe in the near future. Long term predictions remain unstable: Mixed sun (for working people) and rain (for banks and big business) perhaps. But no storm and Britain will stay where it is since good neighborhood is, what everybody here wants.
So let us calm down, wait and we'll see. Maybe ignoring the economics wasn't a bad decision by most of the Brexetiers. The non-wealthy people did not benefit too much from the union anyway and getting a passport is not that much of a problem.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 06, 2016, 08:05:24 PM
The linked Op-Ed piece is based largely on German's experience in trying to transform into a "Green Economy", and it indicates that this process will be harder than most people (Paris Pact negotiators) think:

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/limits-to-green-growth-by-lili-fuhr-et-al-2016-07 (https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/limits-to-green-growth-by-lili-fuhr-et-al-2016-07)
Extract: "Will reconciling environmental and economic imperatives be harder than we think?
In a word, yes. The mainstream perception is that the green economy will enable us to break free from our dependence on fossil fuels, without sacrificing growth. Many argue that the shift to a green economy can even spur new growth. But, as appealing as this idea is, it is not realistic, as we show in our new book Inside the Green Economy.
To be sure, it is possible for a genuinely “green” economy to be prosperous. But the model that prevails today focuses on quick and easy solutions. Moreover, it reasserts the primacy of economics, thereby failing to recognize the depth of the transformation that is required.
Instead of rethinking our economies with a view to adapting their functioning to environmental limits and imperatives, today’s green economy seeks to redefine nature, in order to adapt it to existing economic systems. We now attach a monetary value to nature and add it to our balance sheets, with the protection of “natural capital,” such as ecosystem services, offsetting environmental degradation, gauged by the global abstract currency of carbon metrics. New market-based mechanisms, such as the trading of biodiversity credits, exemplify this approach. None of this prevents the destruction of nature; it simply reorganizes that destruction along market lines.
As a result of this narrow approach, current conceptions of the green economy have so many blind spots that the entire enterprise should be regarded as largely a matter of faith. The most powerful talisman is technological innovation, which justifies simply waiting for a cure-all invention to come along. But, though new ideas and innovations are obviously vital to address complex challenges, environmental or otherwise, they are neither automatic nor inevitable.

If we are to decouple economic growth from energy consumption and achieve real resource efficiency in a world of nine billion, much less ensure justice for all, we cannot let the economy lead the way.
Instead, we must view the green transformation as a political task. Only a political approach can manage, through genuinely representative institutions, differences of opinion and interest, guided by the kind of open debate, engaging civil society, that is vital to a pluralistic democracy.

The real problem is the lack of political will to implement and scale up those innovations opposed by vested economic interests. The challenge is thus to overcome these minority interests and ensure the protection of the broader public good – a task that is often left to civil society.
Some might argue that calling for radical transformation, rather than incremental change, is inappropriate. At a time when the world faces so many pressing challenges, from economic stagnation to political upheaval to massive refugee flows, any progress toward sustainability should be viewed as a victory. Pragmatic, politically feasible solutions to the environmental crisis should be celebrated, not criticized.

The task that the world’s democracies face today is to continue the project of modernity, embracing the latest knowledge about planetary boundaries, while advancing broad democratic participation and reducing poverty and social injustice. This is no small undertaking, and requires passion and tenacity. But it is not beyond our capacity. The first step is to recognize the constraints that the “green economy” places on thought and action."
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on July 07, 2016, 08:26:15 PM
ASLR

The author is really torn between an urge to face facts and the fear of facing them.  The inability to see the elephant in the room syndrome?   An adherent to the Progress religion?  Just another coward?


....
Extract: "Will reconciling environmental and economic imperatives be harder than we think?
In a word, yes. The mainstream perception is that the green economy will enable us to break free from our dependence on fossil fuels, without sacrificing growth. Many argue that the shift to a green economy can even spur new growth. But, as appealing as this idea is, it is not realistic, as we show in our new book Inside the Green Economy. ..

Thus a nice phrase about the Green BAU perception.  We can have it all if we go green..growth, affluence, yada, yada.  Bull crap.  Unrealistic is putting it mildly.  Impossible is more accurate.  If folks don't keep overpopulation and climate change in front of them at all times and deal with them as part of the solution they will fail spectacularly.

Quote
To be sure, it is possible for a genuinely “green” economy to be prosperous.

Not if we are not solving the problems of overpopulation and climate change first.  This is the fantasy (the religious faith that Progress will save us) that the Greeen BAU crowd falls into every day.  Electric cars for example do not solve overpopulation (carrying capacity issues) nor climate change.  They just slow the inevitable crash you get if you ignore them.    Even a genuinely green economy only works temporarily and goes then collapses when enough of the various trigger points are passed since it does not address the core problems.  I have been arguing about this forever. 

 
Quote
But the model that prevails today focuses on quick and easy solutions. Moreover, it reasserts the primacy of economics, thereby failing to recognize the depth of the transformation that is required.
Instead of rethinking our economies with a view to adapting their functioning to environmental limits and imperatives, today’s green economy seeks to redefine nature, in order to adapt it to existing economic systems. 

Exactly.  If our society does not have the courage to look the problem in the eye this is what happens.  Emotional solutions which sound good but don't address core issues.  This kind of approach to problem solving reminds me strongly of those who fall for Trumps verbiage. he triggers off of peoples emotional stress just like the green bau folks with their verbal nonsense.

Quote
We now attach a monetary value to nature and add it to our balance sheets, with the protection of “natural capital,” such as ecosystem services, offsetting environmental degradation, gauged by the global abstract currency of carbon metrics. New market-based mechanisms, such as the trading of biodiversity credits, exemplify this approach. None of this prevents the destruction of nature; it simply reorganizes that destruction along market lines.
As a result of this narrow approach, current conceptions of the green economy have so many blind spots that the entire enterprise should be regarded as largely a matter of faith.

I don't know how many times I have written this very sentence.  The modern belief in Progress is irrational and amounts to a religious faith. It is merely wishing for a miracle.

Quote
The most powerful talisman is technological innovation, which justifies simply waiting for a cure-all invention to come along. But, though new ideas and innovations are obviously vital to address complex challenges, environmental or otherwise, they are neither automatic nor inevitable.
Nor do they come without adverse consequences.  Most technologies have just as many downsides as they do ups.  We are far past the point where there is any balance in the world on these issues.

Quote

If we are to decouple economic growth from energy consumption and achieve real resource efficiency in a world of nine billion, much less ensure justice for all, we cannot let the economy lead the way.

It is much worse than that.  There is no solution with nine billion people.  There is not one with 7 billion either.  Justice for all means affluence for all...not poverty for all.  The world cannot handle anything like the current population living any where near a developing world standard of living.  Let alone something resembling how we live in the US and EU.  Let us not forget that even if we somehow achieve the maximum of "resource efficiency" we will still be well over the global carrying capacity and we will still have a large net carbon emission.  There are no carbon neutral or fully sustainable energy technologies, civilized lifestyles, global scale farming systems, militaries, cities, etc.  We don't need or want economic growth...we need degrowth.  We need to slow down the engine of civilization as it is speeding towards a cliff.  The more we slow the less we make things worse and the more time it gives us.  Doing what we are doing now is just the opposite.
Quote
Instead, we must view the green transformation as a political task. Only a political approach can manage, through genuinely representative institutions, differences of opinion and interest, guided by the kind of open debate, engaging civil society, that is vital to a pluralistic democracy.

Ummm...nope!  That system is how we got here.  If all interests are taken into account and given their due we end up where we are at...the problem is that some interests have a lot more sway than others.  Where does this utopian benevolent government come from?  Where exactly in the human condition are you going to find that perfect setup where everyone sacrifices for the greater good?  Open debate..seriously?  Pluralistic democracy is what the supporters of Trump want...they want to live in within the bounds of their personal prejudices and beliefs...as does everyone.  But most of those prejudices and beliefs are incompatible with survival and totally irrational.  This is not going to work.
Quote

The real problem is the lack of political will to implement and scale up those innovations opposed by vested economic interests. The challenge is thus to overcome these minority interests and ensure the protection of the broader public good – a task that is often left to civil society.
Some might argue that calling for radical transformation, rather than incremental change, is inappropriate. At a time when the world faces so many pressing challenges, from economic stagnation to political upheaval to massive refugee flows, any progress toward sustainability should be viewed as a victory. Pragmatic, politically feasible solutions to the environmental crisis should be celebrated, not criticized.

No that is not even close to the real problem.  That statement is assuming that the green bau solutions (the faith in Progress) will work.  They won't.  This is just one religion fighting with another.  It is useless.  The global inability to face overpopulation and to stop doing the actions which are accelerating climate change are the real problem.  This article does not argue for radical transformation but for another version of progressive bau.  It is dead in the water from the time it was written.  There is certainly a pragmatic solution but to date it is not politically feasible..dramtic reductions in population in concert with a dramatic reduction in affluence, lifestyles, and standards of living...with a goal of reaching some point where carbon emissions are a small fraction of what they are now and the use of global resources has shrunken to the point where natural systems can recover and regenerate.  Then and only then will the remaining green technological techniques be helping us survive and not perpetrating our destruction.
Quote

The task that the world’s democracies face today is to continue the project of modernity, embracing the latest knowledge about planetary boundaries, while advancing broad democratic participation and reducing poverty and social injustice.

No it is not.  The task is to survive and nothing else matters. You can be as sweet and cuddly as my dog but if there is no food to eat, no place to live, no air to breathe you die.  Democracy cannot solve a problem whose solution requires everyone do behave in specific ways...depopulation, reducing affluence, ending global competition, killing off capitalism.  Democracy is not in our future if we are going to have one I am pretty certain.

Quote
This is no small undertaking, and requires passion and tenacity. But it is not beyond our capacity. The first step is to recognize the constraints that the “green economy” places on thought and action."

Well maybe it is not beyond our capacity but all the evidence to date indicates it actually is.  As this article demonstrates. 

Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 08, 2016, 12:29:19 AM
ASLR

The author is really torn between an urge to face facts and the fear of facing them.  The inability to see the elephant in the room syndrome?   An adherent to the Progress religion?  Just another coward?
 

Jim,

You make many points that I agree with; however, facing facts I suspect that the only way that the global population (now over 7.4 billion) is going to decrease before 2100 is by partial socio-economic collapse (see attached UN projections).  That said, I do believe that after such a partial collapse (possibly in the 2040 to 2070 timeframe) that there will remain several billion people who might be better motivated/equipped to enjoy more of a "small is beautiful" (while probably still including some high tech component) life-type.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on July 08, 2016, 05:03:28 PM
ASLR

Yes I agree that a deliberate strategy to quickly reduce population is very unlikely to happen.  The sad thing is that it is also likely the only action we could execute which would really improve our prospects going forward.

By the time your scenario happens (which it will) the additional damage we will have all caused will way overwhelm us and wipe out all the minor gains being made on secondary items...which would have been really useful to have made if we had also attacked the core problems.  The bottom will be much further down than it needed to be.

I remain pessimistic but hopeful.

No matter how cynical you are it is not enough?
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 08, 2016, 05:44:17 PM
ASLR

Yes I agree that a deliberate strategy to quickly reduce population is very unlikely to happen.  The sad thing is that it is also likely the only action we could execute which would really improve our prospects going forward.

By the time your scenario happens (which it will) the additional damage we will have all caused will way overwhelm us and wipe out all the minor gains being made on secondary items...which would have been really useful to have made if we had also attacked the core problems.  The bottom will be much further down than it needed to be.

I remain pessimistic but hopeful.

No matter how cynical you are it is not enough?

Jim,

There is a reason why all natural systems include both births and deaths, and that in "natural selection" one species is replaced by another; as learning the art of living entails understanding the art of dying.  Clinging to the past is a waste of time & effort, and it is best to accept the unfolding of future generations, even if the coming of those beautiful future generation entail painful births (which doesn't mean that we [the current generation] shouldn't work to reduce the painfulness of those births).

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 08, 2016, 10:24:46 PM
"Othering" results from fossil fueled capitalism, and it will contribute to significant population loss when society reaches a tipping point (note that "othered" Arabs & Muslims are right next door to Europe):

https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2016/06/25/naomi-klein-the-racism-that-underlies-climate-change-inaction (https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2016/06/25/naomi-klein-the-racism-that-underlies-climate-change-inaction)

Extract: "There is also an avalanche of evidence that there is no peaceful way to run an economy powered by coal, oil and gas. The trouble is structural. Fossil fuels, unlike renewable forms of energy such as wind and solar, are not widely distributed but highly concentrated in very specific locations, and those locations have a bad habit of being in other people’s countries. Particularly that most potent and precious of fossil fuels: oil. This is why the project of orientalism, of othering Arab and Muslim people, has been the silent partner of our oil dependence from the start – and inextricable, therefore, from the blowback that is climate change. If nations and peoples are regarded as other – exotic, primitive, bloodthirsty, as Said documented in the 1970s – it is far easier to wage wars and stage coups when they get the crazy idea that they should control their own oil in their own interests. The reverberations from such interventions continue to jolt our world, as do the reverberations from the successful burning of all that oil. The Middle East is now squeezed in the pincer of violence caused by fossil fuels, on the one hand, and the impact of burning those fossil fuels on the other.

The most important lesson to take from all this is that there is no way to confront the climate crisis as a technocratic problem, in isolation. It must be seen in the context of austerity and privatisation, of colonialism and militarism, and of the various systems of othering needed to sustain them all. The connections and intersections between them are glaring, and yet so often resistance to them is highly compartmentalised. The anti-austerity people rarely talk about climate change, the climate change people rarely talk about war or occupation.
Overcoming these disconnections – strengthening the threads tying together our various issues and movements – is the most pressing task of anyone concerned with social and economic justice. It is the only way to build a counterpower sufficiently robust to win against the forces protecting the highly profitable but increasingly untenable status quo."



See also:
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n11/naomi-klein/let-them-drown (http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n11/naomi-klein/let-them-drown)

Extract: "Let Them Drown

The Violence of Othering in a Warming World"

&

https://www.rt.com/uk/341981-climate-change-naomi-klein/ (https://www.rt.com/uk/341981-climate-change-naomi-klein/)

Extract (Remember that Africa is also right next to Europe): "Addressing the audience, Klein said the rise of poverty, discrimination and conflict as climate change intensifies is aggravated by greed and individualism.

“It is not about things getting hotter and wetter but things getting meaner and uglier,” she said.

...

Klein branded climate change an emergency that threatens global security, and said current proposals to tackle the crisis, as laid out under the Paris agreement, are “reckless.”

“In 2009, African nations said this was a death sentence,” she said."

&

http://moderndiplomacy.eu/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=1561:this-changes-everything-capitalism-and-climate-change&Itemid=670 (http://moderndiplomacy.eu/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=1561:this-changes-everything-capitalism-and-climate-change&Itemid=670)
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on July 09, 2016, 04:03:12 PM
Quote
...The most important lesson to take from all this is that there is no way to confront the climate crisis as a technocratic problem, in isolation. It must be seen in the context of austerity and privatisation, of colonialism and militarism, and of the various systems of othering needed to sustain them all. The connections and intersections between them are glaring, and yet so often resistance to them is highly compartmentalised. The anti-austerity people rarely talk about climate change, the climate change people rarely talk about war or occupation.....

Sounds like Naomi has been reading my stuff.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 09, 2016, 06:41:02 PM
You can't fix stupid from the outside, you can only encourage stupid to want to fix itself.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: magnamentis on July 09, 2016, 07:18:01 PM
that works for ignorance, lack of education and lack of experience but not for stupidity. remember what
our good ol' friend albert E. said, the only thin we can be (he was) sure about to be infinite is human
stupidity while he was not 100% sure about the universe.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on July 18, 2016, 04:22:11 PM
Quite long but well worth it.  Raises some interesting historical points as well as current issues.

http://www.firstthings.com/article/2016/08/all-the-east-is-moving (http://www.firstthings.com/article/2016/08/all-the-east-is-moving)
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: SATire on July 18, 2016, 07:31:33 PM
Quite long but well worth it.  Raises some interesting historical points as well as current issues.

http://www.firstthings.com/article/2016/08/all-the-east-is-moving (http://www.firstthings.com/article/2016/08/all-the-east-is-moving)
Nice read. But why is such story in "America's most influential journal of religion and public life"? The 1. empire history is not explained precisely and its mixture with lord of rings and with more modern history is very odd. One could even get the impression that the battle at Lech field could have some similarity to todays difficulities between Pegida (partiotic europeans against the islamization of the Occident) and the refugees, but not much things could be more wrong... 

Only common thing I could see: More than 1000 years ago some clever people used religion to motivate people to do cruel things together (and to make Otto the emperor of the previoulsy not-so-united German nations) and similar things are happening until today. In those times people usually had only the choice between baptism with water or blood (cutting the head off). If you look what christians did to each other 1618-48 (about 1/3 of people killed in this land - larger percentage than in any WW) todays islamists of various type could be considered moderate and liberal.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on July 19, 2016, 04:12:11 PM
It is common for people to think of human history as a path through time along which we travel that, while it passes through rough terrain, entails strife and suffering, none-the-less is still a constant progression towards a better future.  Enlightened progress we could say.  However this is not a good description of history in most ways.  Civilizations cycle.  They rise towards some version of enlightenment and tolerance while they are in the growth of wealth stage.  And then they fall when the resource base can no longer support the complexity of their creation.  And then they usually return to the more base behaviors of the past which taught them that such was the road to survival. This pattern has repeated itself throughout history.

I think what we see here in this article is a drawing in the sand of a line which is stating that the time is coming when sides will have to be taken and those 'immigrants' will have to either bow their heads to one form of baptism or another - as you stated.  To the extremists on both sides of the religious divide which overlays many of today's problems the religious layer is the most important as it is one of the defining historical answers to the repeating problem of collapse through our history.  The authors are laying the Christian groundwork for this conflict just as the fundamentalists in Islam have been doing for a long time now.  Where this goes over the next couple of decades is hard to say but the arc of time leans towards more conflict it seems.

Yes one can say that today's issues and conflicts are not to any where near the scale of those of Otto's time and one might hope that this time it is different.  But that is a hope and not a certainty after all.  Lines are being drawn and walls are being built.  Words are moving towards actions.  Just because only a few are today separating heads in baptisms of blood does not at all guarantee that such behavior will not spread as we decline and the stresses build.  These authors are taking sides and laying down where they think evil lies. 
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: SATire on July 19, 2016, 07:23:26 PM
Yes, history was never a linear sequence of events. Not everything in the past was worse than today and "good old times" rarely were better than todays life.
However, there is always a good possibility to learn from past times and to learn from errors other people made. Unfortunately some are even not able to learn from their own recent mistakes even in case friends tell them about it (e.g. like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_k_QbpFl7RM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_k_QbpFl7RM) ).

Looking at history it seems easy to blame religion for most cruel events. But that is to short minded: It was never the religion doing something, things were done allways by the people and sometimes they used religion to motivate something. Today also other things may be used in a similar way, e.g. "its the economy, stupid", e.g. using xenophobia to motivate a Brexit, e.g. talking against globalisation to motivate french people to vote against a European constitution.

One should not blame the people to lead people into wrong directions, since they just take their chance and they can justify anything by the "good goal". Blame the people following so willingly and thoughtlessly. That is were the evil lies.

People thinking globally have a really tough time today. We were just thinking about the implications of the Brexit and how we could live together in peace and friendship. We had a very short time for that until we had to turn our head to Nice and then rapidly to Turkey, where we see another aggressive reactionist following his old plan to transform a nation into an islamic republic to become a sultan (is he really religious or does he just follow the easy way?). The internet makes the things so fast and plentyful so it is hard to stay on track - seducing people to search for simple categories (this religion, that extreme left/right wing, those rich, these refugees...) which are wrong by nature and result always in hurting other people and provoking similar harsh reactions.

It is too fast, too simple, too brutal. So let us try some de-growth of categories. Evil is who evil does.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on July 20, 2016, 04:57:39 PM
Well we could digress into a very interesting discussion about the promoters/creators of evil and those who carry out the actions.  Who instigates, who is manipulated and who goes willingly. And which of the various types of people are the most evil.

But all I was doing was trying to answer your question about why such a article was found in a prominent religious journal.  It is not about blaming religion and those who are acting are always responsible for their actions.  In times of decline and social stress humans are going to have a much greater tendency to behave according to their subconscious hardwired behavior modes which we evolved into over time.  These behaviors are most easily manipulated through religious or religious like manipulations.  Though there are certainly many other methods also as are often seen in populist political leaders.  There are many adherents to Christianity, Judaism and Islam who are eager to explain what is going on in the world in their terms and to follow along the paths which lead from those convictions.  Thus my comment that the authors of the article are just some of the Christian versions of the radical Islamists we have grown so familiar with. 

We are heading into deep conflict imho and much of that conflict will be defined via religious terms which support xenophobia, tribalism, racism and just the general hatred of those not like oneself or who are just basically strangers.  Not that all of those behaviors will not arise from other sources as well which are not religiously based.  These behaviors are always present in human conflict.  And while it is possible to learn from past errors there is a limit and scale to such learning.  Humans throughout history have never demonstrated the ability to learn not to do what we are talking about here and to find a way to cooperate with each other at a deep level.  It may happen but I for one find the idea somewhat fantastical.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on July 22, 2016, 03:53:22 PM
An article very pertinent to some of the earlier discussions in this topic.  Specifically my contention that the EU is not a democratic union but rather an autocracy.

Quote
..Of course, the alacrity with which other European leaders have said that the Leave vote in the UK must be respected is somewhat surprising. It is worth noting that the European Union so far has not been particularly responsive to the voice of popular will, typically forcing people to bend rather than the other way around, even when there have been significant democratic pressures within member countries against its mandates. Consider just a few examples. In Denmark, 51.7 per cent of voters wanted to reject the Maastricht Treaty in 1992, but the country was made to vote again until the treaty was passed by an even smaller majority. In 2002, the EU Constitution was rejected by 54.9 per cent of French voters and 61.5 per cent of Dutch voters, but these results were simply ignored and the Lisbon Treaty was put in place. In 2008, Ireland voted against the Lisbon Treaty by 53.8 per cent, but were made to vote again until a more satisfactory result was obtained. In 2015, 61.3 per cent of Greek voters – an overwhelming majority – voted against the austerity programme of the EU, but this too was rejected. At that time, the president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker even said, “There can be no democratic choice against the European treaties.”.......

...The European Union as it exists today is unstable and probably unsustainable. But it will be tragic indeed if it collapses under the weight of its own contradictions only to yield to the petty and xenophobic forms of national neoliberalism that are currently the most forceful alternative to neoliberal economic integration. What Europe and the world require are more internationalist alternatives based on popular sovereignty, solidarity, the improvement of workers’ conditions and the rights of citizens. Sadly, at this time there are only very few voices making such demands.



http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/07/what-next-for-the-eu.html (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/07/what-next-for-the-eu.html)
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: SATire on July 22, 2016, 04:38:39 PM
An article very pertinent to some of the earlier discussions in this topic.  Specifically my contention that the EU is not a democratic union but rather an autocracy.

Quote
... In 2002, the EU Constitution was rejected by 54.9 per cent of French voters and 61.5 per cent of Dutch voters, but these results were simply ignored and the Lisbon Treaty was put in place. [...].[/b]......

[...] What Europe and the world require are more internationalist alternatives based on popular sovereignty, solidarity, the improvement of workers’ conditions and the rights of citizens. Sadly, at this time there are only very few voices making such demands.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/07/what-next-for-the-eu.html (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/07/what-next-for-the-eu.html)
What an opinion-driven bullshit can be found again on this nakedcapitalism blog?!?

Just two examples picked: The constitution was rejected and thus there is no constitution in EU. There are treatys between countries like Lisboa Treaty.
Jim, how can such set of treaties be a democracy or autocraty? Could NATO be a democracy? Or TTIP? And if EU would be an autocracy who would be the autocrat? Junkers?? He can not do anything against the governments of the countries (the council) - even less than a president in USA, since the latter can e.g. press an important button (but can not close a jail or increase a tax...).

And then we find this conclusion: "What Europe and the world require are more internationalist alternatives based on popular sovereignty, solidarity, the improvement of workers’ conditions and the rights of citizens." What the hell is ment by this??? Like Pegida or other international aggressive reactionists? Alternatives like from the Putin-Le-Pen-axis, Erdogan concepts or more like the things Trump suggests? Or similar suggestions we hear from Italian 5 stars and also sometimes from the newly united far left-right-wing-international in Europe?

I think the blog-poster confuses democracy with plebiszites. In Swiss that may be ok to put those things together - including very precise information long before the plebiszite and open discussions in the public. But elsewhere a plebiszite is often the opposite of democracy: It is frequently used as a tool for individual policians to enforce somethings against the own or other parties - and most often it is some populistic idea which turns the plebiszite into something completely different: Just ask the French people if they think that they once voted against an European constitution. Most of the public discussions were about somethings else...

To conclude: I think I will start to ignore blog posts from nakedcaptialism from now on, since those crazy arguments and distorted propaganda drive my blood pressure and could make me write for hours, risking to do something similar to the reader of my words. I am sorry - this polarization is so wrong and keeps me&you from doing the real things.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on July 23, 2016, 05:15:17 PM
......
What an opinion-driven bullshit can be found again on this nakedcapitalism blog?!?

.....

To conclude: I think I will start to ignore blog posts from nakedcaptialism from now on, since those crazy arguments and distorted propaganda drive my blood pressure and could make me write for hours, risking to do something similar to the reader of my words. I am sorry - this polarization is so wrong and keeps me&you from doing the real things.

First the opinion did NOT come from the blog as what I linked clearly has this at the beginning

Quote
By Jayati Ghosh, Professor of Economics and Chairperson at the Centre for Economic Studies and Planning, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Originally published in Frontline

In further defense of the NakedCapitalism blog it is one of the most prestigious blogs in the world and if one only read a single blog it would be my first choice as the depth of its work (talking here about the posts actually written by the 2 bloggers) is superb.  And the breadth of its links is also almost unparralled.  But do what you want of course.

To your statement that the opinion that the EU is not a democracy is 'bullshit" I would just respond that you seem to be so close to the trees you cannot see the forest.  It is basically indefensible to hold the opinion that the EU, being an unelected body which enforces its will upon the citizens of supposedly sovereign countries, is a democratic institution.  You are entitled to hold whatever opinion you choose to, but then again so are all the folks like LePen and Trump and the millions who have come to the conclusion that this undemocratic structure is not in their interests.  Check out my post today in the empire thread about the US and you see the same problems being generated here by our disintegrating 'democracy'.   I am sure that most Germans think the EU is working great (though that number shrinks every day) as they are the dominant power in it and get most of the economic benefits.  But ask a Greek how much of a democracy the EU actually is.

The winners in any economic/political structure tend to hold strong opinions that it must be right and good...after all they are doing just fine.  But these systems are not working for the bulk of the population in either the EU or the US and the problems generated are coming home to roost.  And they are going to get worse going forward as well.

The point of these topics I created is to demonstrate how the stresses which lead to collapse progress and are progressing.  These giant complex globalized structures do not have an endless lifespan.  They grow with the creation of cheap energy and rising wealth and they stagnate and eventually die when the cheap energy goes away and the decline in resources sets in.  This is the way of all empires. 

Fighting with all ones strength to maintain complexities which cannot stand only serves to waste huge amounts of ones personal resources in a cause which is futile. 

A large segment of our populations is reaching the point where they will not stand for the status quo. Their world is crumbling right in front of their eyes and they are being backed into a corner.  When they decide which way they are going to break it will be best not to be in the way.

If we want to have a future beyond the collapse being driven by climate change, over population and political conflict we have to break with the standard human response of trying to maintain the various forms of BAU.  It is not that I expect this to happen as I think I have a pretty sound understanding of how humans react to long term threats and make their decisions subconsciously.  But it is in my nature not to give up hope that there might be a shred of common sense and rational behavior still out there that I might reach and that would make a slightly better difference.

Regards
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: SATire on July 24, 2016, 12:22:41 AM
JimD - I guess you did not understand what I tried to explain. Maybe I am bad in explaining what I think the problems in Europe are. And I used the articles you refered to as basis to show the misleading ideas which I think are part of the problems not only here but also elsewhere.

I want to give some background so you may understand some of my earlier comments better -  just in case you would like to know.

The European Union is not a democratic set-up and can not be democratic legitimated. Junckers is right in that point cited in above link. The attempt to give the EU a democratic legitimation was defaeted in the referendum in France and the Netherlands against the constitution. Therefore, the European Union is "only" a set of treaties between countries and can not be democratic legitimated anymore. But the countries are legitimated democraticly. Since Lisboa treaty Germany has more weight than other countries in some matters because some decisions need a certain percentage of population. Since Germany has larger population the weight of the German government is sometimes more important than that of other governments. That is it with the power of Germany.

The German populations benefit from European Union is that people inside EU may move to other places EU and live there with equal right. This benefit is the same for all the population in EU. Also we have no control at any boarders between the Schengen countries - no real borders anymore - that is convenient. The common currency Euro is similarely convenient for the people. Furtehrmore, we profit from EU laws by better laws to protect the environment, the human rights and also consumer protection. Such standards are pretty high inside EU and that is a benefit for the people. Of course such standars are a big barrier for new countries - e.g. Turkey can not come in due to that, but they do not want anyway such kind of standards.

About the Greek issue adressed in you link we discussed in previous posts a lot. That referendum was ignored by the Greek government only. The post you linked above blamed missing democracy in EU wring, since it was a pure Greek decision to ignore that referendum. Most people e.g. in Germany are not happy about that ignorance and people know they will have to pay for that. Since in EU no country can be forced to leave it was only the decision of the countries government to stay or go. Just like now with Britain - exit negotioations will start after Britain governments triggers arcticle 50. Same thing for every country here, since all countries signed the same treaties (but not all countries signed all treaties, e.g. no Schengen nor Euro currency in Britain). Similarly most other "facts" in the linked post are just wrong due to misunderstandings. EU is not a united staates and probably will never be. E.g. the French can not give up their nation as easy as the Germans did give up their currency.

All this kind of discussions I feel distract us from the more important problems we face in Europe and also elsewhere:

Lack of democracy: In EU that can only be a lack of democracy in countries with governments. In Hungary we see some problems arising. In Turkey we today see the clash between Europe and Arabia just at the Bosphorus. In Russia and Belarus we see succesfull autocratic governments - Putin made Russia great again... The democracy here is indeed challenged by sucessfull autocratic governments in the neighborhood. That success of autocrats and the difficulties to explain/understand the set-up of European Union help the international left-right-wing reactionist here.

The social questions (as it is called here - better maybe: The issues related to unfairly distributed wealth from the common fruits of the work of the people) is pushing people from the far left wing to the far right wing quickly: The "International Solidarity" means of course that solidarity with the poorest people means solidarity with poor people abroad. Not only political refugees (which have a right for asylum here) but also "economical refugees". That is a competition for poor people inside the country, because suddenly they are middle class in comparison and fear to loose their privileges for good reasons. Since our left wing parties still are also preaching internation solidarity our working class is driven towards the right wing reactionists - just like the "white trash" in USA easily walks from Sanders to Trump. So what could be a basis for international answers to the social question? I would say international treaties like European Union but not restricted to a single continent...

Economical issues: I think one can ignore them at this point. Of cours big money profited from European Union a lot - at cost of the people also in Germany. That business will become more and more difficult in the close future since with Britain the neoliberalism starts leaving Europe. Next thing to do is to fire all those former Goldman-Sachs (and other Wall street banks like Deutsche) people from political positions... Banks not only in London will be hurt. So let us ignore economics here - it is not that real anymore today.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on July 24, 2016, 02:10:15 AM
SATire

I have always liked our interchanges as they make me think and study as you are never shallow and thoughtless.  So yes I am always interested in what you have to say - with the understanding that we are not going to agree a lot of the time because we value the present and the future differently.

I understand your position fairly well I think.  There is nothing new to me in what you have written above.  Some of our differences are 'interpretation' of what constitutes what is fact.  As I am sure you are aware there are many who take the positions I do on these matters. 

Some of our differences are also what each of us thinks is the most important factors to put in the front of the que.  I am more concerned with the reality of how the system works than the legal structures which bind the EU.  As we see all the time the EU managers ignore their own rules and do what they want to do.  Many of the countries in the EU of course exhibit the same kinds of behavior.  This type of behavior by the ruling class is endemic globally and we here in the US are likely to end up in the Hall of Fame ourselves to give it a sports analogy.  Most of this undemocratic/autocratic behavior is in service to the 1%ers who stand to gain the most economically as we all know.  Considerations as to what is best for the native populations of the various countries is not even a secondary concern to them.  The tide however is turning and there will be great struggle between the citizens and the 1%ers over the next 10-20 years - after that it will not matter much as events will over take everyone.

Many things about the EU and the Euro which seem to have been at one time to the benefit of the people of Europe were mostly side effects to the main purposes of the union and the common currency.  Just like NATO was not really intended to 'just' control the Soviet Union as we both know.  If that had been its only significant purpose it would have long ago ceased to exist.  What the US uses NATO for today is not in the best interests of the people of Europe in many ways.

I think from our many conversations that you and I are not far off in what we think the primary problems are and their likely end result.  Where I think we really differ is where the current short term emphasis should be placed.  I think that you still want to pursue the approaches to dealing with global problems as we have done in the past.  I think to do so is a waste of effort and will leave us in a worse place than the minimum could be.  So I emphasize what I think is the best for those who will stand in our place a hundred years from now and will willingly sacrifice those of the present to get us there (I do not have any hope that this path will be taken at all..but I still have hope for the future as that is just part of being human I guess).

Quote
So what could be a basis for international answers to the social question? I would say international treaties like European Union but not restricted to a single continent...

Economical issues: I think one can ignore them at this point. Of cours big money profited from European Union a lot - at cost of the people also in Germany. That business will become more and more difficult in the close future since with Britain the neoliberalism starts leaving Europe. Next thing to do is to fire all those former Goldman-Sachs (and other Wall street banks like Deutsche) people from political positions... Banks not only in London will be hurt. So let us ignore economics here - it is not that real anymore today.


I have deep disagreements with the two main points in that quote.  International answers to our primary problems (being climate change and exceeding the global carrying capacity) have been sorely lacking to date and have demonstrated conclusively the failure of pursuing bau international approaches to solving problems.  The pointless and useless Paris agreement being the latest prime example of such efforts.  There is not a country of significance which will hold to that agreement.  And the agreement is an agreement to destroy the world anyway.   Global approaches to solving our primary issues are not possible IMHO in a democratic structure as solving the problems requires almost everyone to give up most of what they have.  Perhaps I am misunderstanding your point about ignoring economic issues above as I think the opposite is the case.  Economic issues are the drivers of all of this mess and thus have to be the most critical places where significant social change is required.  But change on both of those fronts is unlikely to come from current approaches.  Radical change is what is needed and it will come one way or another.

As to what is best for the peoples of the countries of Europe I am pretty certain that those who live in those individual countries are going to decide what is best for themselves over the next 10 years ...and most of those decisions will not favor unions like the EU and they will not favor mass migration - which really does dramatically and permanently change the character of a country.  And in most cases what they decide will not work as there is no real solution to the problems we have other than degrowth.  Europe cannot stand to have mass migration from the Middle East and Africa.  Right now it might seem manageable but it will become unmanageable.  And over time the vast majority of people will not think that those who want to come there have any right to do so.   We here in North America cannot and will not allow it when it actually becomes a real issue here (our issues with immigration now are not actually significant and look at how controversial they are already). The early stages of collapse will most likely result in Europe becoming much more like it was 100 years ago in terms of sovereignty.  This is the path of collapse and, yes, this quite likely will lead to increasing conflict again.

I would have liked to work on this more but my regular life calls and I must go.

Regards






Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: SATire on July 25, 2016, 01:47:42 PM
JimD, also for me it is very valuable to discuss with you such things: To see the real things it is important to look at them from various different positions.

Why did I say "ignore economics"? Of course AGW and economics are closely related. But non of todays signs for possible collpase dynamics in Europe are AGW related - the weather is still fine here. I mean simple economic numbers like GDP should be ignored, since they are misleading and too BAU'ish. To stress my points a bit more: You know we discussed elsewhere the usual collapse dynamics and you know, how our last collapse evolved. So I am looking at the things from that perspective and see such things on the rise again. Not that I am not able to see different possibile future routes, but I think thoose others are just not very likely today (or next 10 years) as the following:

The last collapse here was initiated by a takeover of a aggressive populistic extreme left-right-wing party (national socialists = Nazi) and accompanied by lies blaming others for all the evil (the globalized rich 1%, the jews, the gypsis, "other kind" of people). So I see similar tendencies today as probable signs for a collapse here:

* Blaming "EU managers" like you (and many others theese days) do is just a lie. You may ignore the legal set-up of EU as you stated. But ignoring that all decisions in EU are made by the governments of the countries and the very same politicians after that blame "the EU" for that decision is just an evil lie. I feel such behaviour is a possible seed for collapse and thus I try to fight it by explaining the facts. There are no "EU managers" and there is no EU government other than the managers/governments of the countries. So blame them and only them.

* Blaming refugees or other people for the unfair results for poor people here is a lie. Blame the existing people here for doing unfair things or making unfair laws. Blame USA for destroing the peoples governments during the wars for terror in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and paving the way for the IS. We have the choice to let them die or let them in. If humanity has any value we should help and let them in.

* What is happening in Turkey today is very worring and reminds me (and my relatives living in Istanbul) to very similar things happening in Germany before initiating the last collapse: Division of powers is terminated, freedom of press is gone, judges are in jail, teachers are fired, academic people are not allowed to travel and normal people fear to talk about their opinion. This is a thread just at our door. Other aggressive reactionists are present in Russia and Belarus or on the rise in Hungary and as international left-right-wing parties all over in Europe. We have to fight such developments even more insistently than the British did the last time. And we should do that together without weakening each other by dividing the democratic countries.

PS: JimD, our main difference was about the idea, that an intentional collapse could be helpful (by AGW, nuclear war or a virus...). We should not discuss that point because we can not come together anyway and it hurts me just too much. If inhuman actions would be necessary to rescue humanity I would prefer exactly not to do that and to go extinct due to failure. A suicide/murder is a possible cure for any disease but... I do not want to discuss this point with you. But I really love to discuss everything else with you and learn a lot. I love learning to increase complexity as much as possible.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on July 26, 2016, 04:31:06 PM
I admit it is a bit of a stretch to put this in this topic (as personally I don't consider Turkey as part of the EU), however, Turkey has been trying to join the EU and is a NATO member so here seems best. 

A very interesting read...not that anyone will agree with all of it.

Quote
Thoughts on the Coup Attempt in Turkey

There is still a lot that is murky about it, the most murky being US involvement and foreknowledge, but I believe some conclusions can be drawn.

Quote
1.  There was a real, home-grown coup being plotted against Erdoğan......

2.  This coup had been in preparation for some time and Turkish security got wind of it (“received information” is the phrase being used) in time to warn Erdoğan to get out just ahead of the assassins. The story that Russian intelligence had picked up the clues and forewarned him is very believable. .......

4.  Washington and the coup. .......

5.  Whatever the reality may be, Erdoğan and his people are blaming Washington. There have been enough direct and indirect statements to make that plain....

9.  I believe that Erdoğan and his people began a sort of cost-benefit analysis recently and, just before the coup, we saw the first moves with his overtures to Israel and Russia. First, the cost side of the ledger. Turkey is never going to be admitted into the EU (not that that is so attractive these days); following Washington’s lead in the Middle East has brought it disaster and defeat; rightly or wrongly, Ankara believes Washington has betrayed it. The Western orientation is mostly on the cost side of the ledger. On the benefit side, Ankara has learned how much Russia’s enmity can cost it (and, if its true that Moscow tipped Erdoğan off to the coup, what Russia’s friendship can give). Then there are the future benefits: tangible in the shape of becoming Russia’s gas spigot to southern Europe and the potentially enormous gains from China’s “One Belt, One Road” strategy. Therefore, a simple cost-benefit calculation shows that a Eurasian turn has many benefits for Turkey while the status quo has about paid out.

10.  A more brutal calculation would have Erdoğan & Co considering the correlation of forces. Who’s winning? Which is the side to bet on? In 2000 the USA was by far the most powerful country on Earth; most powerful in every measurable way. But it’s been at war ever since and it’s losing these wars; it has outsourced the manufacturing power that was the foundation of its power last century; its foreign activities are fumbling and incoherent. As to the other Western standard-bearer, no one could possibly pretend that the future of the EU is bright. The power of the West is fading and what remains is incompetently managed. Since 2000, on the other hand – although the consumer of Western media absurdities would be unaware of it – under very capable management, Russia has grown in wealth and power. The same goes for China – steady economic and military growth combined with intelligent and wise leadership. If you were running Turkey, with which would you throw in your fate? Especially when your Western “allies” have so frequently spurned you? And may just have tried to kill you?....

12.  Turkey will leave NATO. What is not clear is the timing and the optics. I can easily imagine a gradual pulling back that doesn’t quite ever formally leave. But, if the Eurasian turn is indeed happening, then NATO is gone. ...

https://patrickarmstrong.ca/2016/07/25/thoughts-on-the-coup-attempt-in-turkey/
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on July 29, 2016, 05:08:18 PM
More Turkey stuff

Quote
Amnesty International has gathered credible evidence that detainees in Turkey are being subjected to beatings and torture, including rape, in official and unofficial detention centres in the country.
The organization is calling for independent monitors to be given immediate access to detainees in all facilities in the wake of the coup attempt, which include police headquarters, sports centres and courthouses. More than 10,000 people have been detained since the failed coup.

Amnesty International has credible reports that Turkish police in Ankara and Istanbul are holding detainees in stress positions for up to 48 hours, denying them food, water and medical treatment, and verbally abusing and threatening them. In the worst cases some have been subjected to severe beatings and torture, including rape...

If Turkey is now becoming an Islamist dictatorship one can only imagine the problems coming down the pike. 

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/07/turkey-independent-monitors-must-be-allowed-to-access-detainees-amid-torture-allegations/ (https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/07/turkey-independent-monitors-must-be-allowed-to-access-detainees-amid-torture-allegations/)
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: TerryM on July 30, 2016, 08:43:57 AM
It's difficult to believe that a Turkish autocrat could sink to depths of depravity not witnessed since the dark days of W's reign.



As I understand it, anyone in country with ties to the US of A is in deep do-do. 
How this apre-coup regroup will play out with regard to Syria, ISIS, and the various pipeline projects planned to transit Turkey is anyone's guess. The military will certainly be weakened, and possibly so involved with policing itself, that power projection beyond their own borders becomes negligible.


Will the crackdown be hard on the Kurds, or will those long standing problems be put on the back burner while the immediate threat to the State takes precedence? ISIS may be pushed back in Syria, and a retreat into Turkey could complicate matters, especially if Turkey now views them as problematic WRT making up with Russia.
 
Erdogan's meeting with Putin on the 9th of August, his first face to face with a world leader since the coup attempt, is indicative of Erdogan's wish to normalize relations with Russia. How far Putin is willing to go, how high a price he extracts for his support, and how much he is able to trust Erdogan could determine the look of the ME for decades to come.


A successful coup is now the only hope that America has to pull Turkey back into the fold, and Erdogan seems to be going to extreme lengths to prevent this possibility. It seems that TPTB made a serious miscalculation, possibly by again underestimating the capability of Putin's spooks.



When you strike at a king, you must kill him.
R W Emerson


Terry
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: SATire on July 30, 2016, 02:32:27 PM
TerryM,

I did not understand some of the abbreviations, slang or code words you used. But since I got the feeling that "a successful coupe" could be something good I must disagree:
All Turkish parties were united against the coupe, including the Kemalists and the Curds (see here: http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-idUKKCN1040K7 (http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-idUKKCN1040K7) ). It was surely a great victory for democracy and for the people that the coupe failed.

However, what is happening now is not looking good. It is maybe similar to the reaction of USA after 9/11: A big thread and subsequently a "clean-up", people again are rating security over liberty. Similarly the alliance partners warn but are ignored again and thus it is likely, that the reaction will make things worse again. Not to be able to learn from history is not an US of A monopoly.

But if there will be any proove, that the USA was somehow involved in the coupe (is that really what you say? What does "TPTB" or "do-do" mean?), then that would be the end of NATO. If a treaty member is involved in a coupe in another democratic member then not only Turkey will leave that "treaty"...

Regarding Turkey and Russia: Not sure how it will end, but it looks like Russia-Assad are winning against Turkey-various-Islamists and Turkey-Islamists vs. Curds-Europeans also is not looking good. Maybe Erdogan just gives up and realizes, that autocrats are better partners for autocrats then complicated governments?

However, Europe is concerned. Istanbul is part of Europe and millions of Turkish people are living in Germany. Tomorrow there will be a demonstration in Cologne initiated by AKP: ~30 thousands people will demonstrate against the coupe. Right-wing lokal extremes, left wing autonomes and liberals will demonstrate against Erdogan at the same time - it will get "interesting". No simple answers are useful these days, we have to draw more complicated pictures and we have to try to understand before we start any wrong actions.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: TerryM on July 30, 2016, 07:57:47 PM
SATire


I'm so sorry for writing unintelligibly:
W = GW Bush
do-do = ecrement, human waste, crap, feces, dung. "in deep do-do" = "in deep trouble"
TPTB = The Powers That Be - Those in charge.


I certainly am not in favor of a "successful coup", I'm no fan of Erdogan's, but, being old enough to remember the American coup of 1963 and the horrors that followed, I much prefer changes that come with at least the trappings of democracy.


My last post was based on the idea that America was behind the attempted coup, that Erdogan is aware of this, and that he now will do business with those he feels he can trust. I'm unsure of how NATO will be affected, will Turkey withdraw? Will NATO be reformed? Will NATO collapse? None of the above?


If, as you say "all Turkish parties were against the coup", does it not follow that some party outside of Turkey was responsible?


Those protesting Erdogan's excesses are wise to do so far from the Turkish borders. I fear for their health if they should ever return. Here in Canada, returning home every 6 mo. is required if one expects to retain various privileges.


I'm very appreciative of European feedback. My own thoughts are definitely a minority view in Canada. Our present and recently deposed governments are united in their abhorrence of Putin, and firm in their support for the new government of Ukraine. It was Canada that had Russia removed from the Group of Eight, all with the approval of the populace. I read RT, Sputnik, and The Saker and these sources have either corrupted my thoughts or widened my viewpoint.


I had lived 40 year in the States, and simply by immersing oneself in two different cultures, one can't help but notice the propaganda emanating from both. Rather than seeing either country as a beacon of light and a source of hope for the world, I've come to view each government as a source of disinformation, more intent on pleasing their masters than caring for their charges.


Two years ago America saw Russian and German financial success's as the greatest dangers to American hegemony in the coming decades. Today, with the demonization of Volkswagen and Putin, as well as sanctions that negatively affect both countries, these over-achievers have been dealt a blow. As long as war isn't seen as the solution I will acquiesce.


Terry
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: SATire on July 30, 2016, 08:28:35 PM
If, as you say "all Turkish parties were against the coup", does it not follow that some party outside of Turkey was responsible?
Here I was not clear: I meant the political parties in the Turkish parliament. The government party AKP and also the oposition Kemalists (CHP), and Curds (HDP)  acted against the coupe. Not sure about extreme right MHP....

From here it looked like part of the Turkish military tried that coupe. Maybe just because they did/tried that frequently in history.
Title: Re: Europe - Collapse dynamics
Post by: JimD on July 31, 2016, 12:53:24 AM
A little speculation on my part.

If the US had been behind the coup (I do not think it was) there would have been a much higher involvement of more senior officers ...that is at least the standard Colonels which are required (as they command the requisite size of units needed) and most likely a set of Generals (as the US has deep connections with them).  So one could conclude that whomever started this coup did not have US backing.

That being said it is entirely possible that the US knew this was going to happen.  It appears that the Russians were aware of it and we have at least equal monitoring capabilities. 

The Russians 'may' have warned Erdogan to flee whereas we would not likely have done that as it would be in the US's interests to have Erdogan gone  -  he is after all an Islamist and clearly intent on creating a dictatorship.  Erdogan actually succeeding in creating a dictatorship however is not necessarily contrary to Russian interests and Russian national security.  So where does that leave us as the Russians have the ability to monitor but not to instigate a coup.

This situation played hugely into Erdogan's hands. He may have been democratically elected but he is clearly intent on creating a dictatorship.  For the US and the EU it would have been a much better outcome if the coup had succeeded.  Erdogan has made huge progress on fulfilling his goal of total control and it is very unlikely now that there will be any further meaningful democracy within Turkey.

So I would say the best guess is that Erdogan himself instigated this and that he was never in any danger.  This could have been accomplished by planting his own men into the right places and then triggering a 'coup' which would look really dangerous but have no chance of succeeding.  And thus would cement his iron fisted control of the country as it allowed him to purge the entire country of his remaining political opponents and further gut the formerly independent military leadership. the only winner here is Erdogan so that is the best place to look  -  not that it matters who started it all that really matters is the result.

Relations with the EU and the US will become much more difficult and problematic.  This plays well into Russian security interests.  The potential impact on other situations in the Middle East will be unpredictable I think.  With the exception that the Kurds are undoubtedly going to get pressed very hard.  If the Russians play their cards right (and Putin seldom does anything else) they will gain significantly from this situation.