Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Greenland and Arctic Circle => Topic started by: JimD on January 19, 2016, 06:12:24 PM

Title: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: JimD on January 19, 2016, 06:12:24 PM
Interesting.

http://robertscribbler.com/2016/01/18/did-a-january-hurricane-just-set-off-a-massive-greenland-melt-event-in-winter/ (http://robertscribbler.com/2016/01/18/did-a-january-hurricane-just-set-off-a-massive-greenland-melt-event-in-winter/)

Quote
...Dr Jason Box notes that surface mass balance totals have consistently shown up as negative over the past week in the DMI measure. A record that continued today. Though Dr. Box states that such a negative mass balance could simply be chalked up to wintertime sublimation, the consistent losses showing up in the monitor over the past seven days have coincided temperatures in a melt-inducing range.

In addition, Dr Box also indicates a disturbing flushing of ice away from both Disko and Uummannaq Bays occurring on January 16th. In the satellite shot, both sea ice and ice burgs are moved en-mass from the bays and on out into the waters of Baffin.....

Sediment hitting water in this way would be a sign that a very large volume of water had been expelled along the basal zones of the Jacobshavn. In addition, the ice itself appears to have been forcibly ejected. ...

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpolarportal.dk%2Ffileadmin%2Fpolarportal%2Fsurface%2FSMB_combine_SM_day_EN_20160118.png&hash=8b1f205851098cd1e4e4771a78dc6349)
Title: Re: 2016 Greenland Melt
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 19, 2016, 06:17:18 PM
Have you by any chance seen this Jim, on this very forum?

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,154.msg68482.html#msg68482 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,154.msg68482.html#msg68482)

Quote
There has been a large outflow of meltwater into Disko Bay and Uummannaq.  I alerted Mauri Pelto, Alun Hubbard and Jason Box during the wee hours this morning.  They're having a look at it, and Mauri has already done a very nice blog post.

or this (he says modestly)?

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1377.msg68572.html#msg68572 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1377.msg68572.html#msg68572)

Quote
Temperatures in Southern Greenland [the day before] yesterday were on a par with those in Soggy South West England. The winds were somewhat stronger up there though!
Title: Re: 2016 Greenland Melt
Post by: JimD on January 20, 2016, 03:45:50 AM
Nice.  You could have started a new thread.

I actually looked for something on it but did not find your post.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Neven on January 20, 2016, 10:57:47 AM
Jim, I've adjusted your title to match this one (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1230.0.html) from last year.
Title: Re: 2016 Greenland Melt
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 20, 2016, 11:34:44 AM
Nice.  You could have started a new thread.

Now why didn't I think of that!

Cross posting from elsewhere (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,154.msg68652.html#msg68652), note the persistent easterly winds and 7 °C temperatures in Ilulissat yesterday.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fforum.arctic-sea-ice.net%2Findex.php%3Faction%3Ddlattach%3Btopic%3D154.0%3Battach%3D23965%3Bimage&hash=6dc78b98bc7cce2d8e8b1d70f0652f3f)

Meanwhile here in Soggy South West England the frosts have arrived:

Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: JimD on January 20, 2016, 06:10:01 PM
It is only a matter of time until Greenland lives up to its name ::)
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: jdallen on January 20, 2016, 07:13:47 PM
Interesting.

http://robertscribbler.com/2016/01/18/did-a-january-hurricane-just-set-off-a-massive-greenland-melt-event-in-winter/ (http://robertscribbler.com/2016/01/18/did-a-january-hurricane-just-set-off-a-massive-greenland-melt-event-in-winter/)

Quote
...Dr Jason Box notes that surface mass balance totals have consistently shown up as negative over the past week in the DMI measure. A record that continued today. Though Dr. Box states that such a negative mass balance could simply be chalked up to wintertime sublimation, the consistent losses showing up in the monitor over the past seven days have coincided temperatures in a melt-inducing range.

In addition, Dr Box also indicates a disturbing flushing of ice away from both Disko and Uummannaq Bays occurring on January 16th. In the satellite shot, both sea ice and ice burgs are moved en-mass from the bays and on out into the waters of Baffin.....

Sediment hitting water in this way would be a sign that a very large volume of water had been expelled along the basal zones of the Jacobshavn. In addition, the ice itself appears to have been forcibly ejected. ...

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpolarportal.dk%2Ffileadmin%2Fpolarportal%2Fsurface%2FSMB_combine_SM_day_EN_20160118.png&hash=8b1f205851098cd1e4e4771a78dc6349)

Per our own A-Team, here:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,154.msg68660.html#msg68660 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,154.msg68660.html#msg68660)

Robert may have jumped the gun a bit.  There does not appear to be any evidence of rainfall sufficient to cause the event.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: solartim27 on February 06, 2016, 08:47:57 PM
Is starting a little early, or perhaps it did not snow much?
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: JimD on February 23, 2016, 04:33:21 PM
This seems kind of interesting.

Image is accumulated anomaly Sep 1 2015 to Feb 22 2016.

Interestingly enough it is dead on Mean even though we have had all that incredible warmth flowing up the Atlantic.  But the contrast between the east and west sides is stark.  I do not know if this east west thing is normal or not.  Anyone?

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpolarportal.dk%2Ffileadmin%2Fpolarportal%2Fsurface%2FSMB_combine_SM_acc_EN_20160222.png&hash=f2955d0db1ae00a92fcfb6ee9840607b)
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on February 23, 2016, 05:30:55 PM
I wish the graph on the bottom was labeled correctly.  The title suggests it goes into 2016, but the legend suggests it shows data up to a year ago... :'(
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: oren on February 23, 2016, 08:19:33 PM
To my layman's eyes it looks like it's been snowing a lot, while the glaciers have been flowing especially JH and the glaciers up north on the west coast. Kind of what I would expect with AGW.
I'm just not sure what the map actually shows - departure from average for this period (which would make this quite significant), or simply the accumulated changes (which could make this perfectly normal).
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: JimD on February 23, 2016, 08:29:40 PM
Ahh I had not noticed the scale in the bottom of the graph - that is a bit confusing.

I guess the warm air flowing up the Atlantic between Greenland and Europe would result in the much heavier accumulations on the East Greenland mainland due to the extra moisture?

But has the cold been below normal and the air drier on the West Greenland mainland to cause the big shortfall on that side?

Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: RaenorShine on February 23, 2016, 08:42:48 PM
Jim,

The accumulated anomaly has been in that sort of position for the last couple of years.

You can access the historic graphs on polar portal (DMI's Sister site displaying the same model) by playing about with the URL (images go back to 2012)

For the Image :
http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_map_LA_acc_EN_20150222.png (http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_map_LA_acc_EN_20150222.png)
http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_map_LA_acc_EN_20140222.png (http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_map_LA_acc_EN_20140222.png)
etc

For the Graph (labelled correctly ;0):

http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_curves_LA_EN_20150222.png (http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_curves_LA_EN_20150222.png)
http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_curves_LA_EN_20140222.png (http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_curves_LA_EN_20140222.png)
etc

This is not normal though, as this is an anomaly plot these past couple of years are out of the ordinary.

My understanding is that Greenland is getting more precipitation in the South East for much the same reasons as NE USA is getting Snowmageddon, the warm Atlantic waters and a stuck jet stream.

The North West has seen far less precipitation than normal leaving the average 'on track'.

Without the constant stream of storms to the south east the SMB of Greenland would be seriously negative (see 2012's graphs if I am reading them correctly).
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: plinius on February 23, 2016, 09:16:17 PM
To my layman's eyes it looks like it's been snowing a lot, while the glaciers have been flowing especially JH and the glaciers up north on the west coast. Kind of what I would expect with AGW.
I'm just not sure what the map actually shows - departure from average for this period (which would make this quite significant), or simply the accumulated changes (which could make this perfectly normal).

Hi Oren - would look like that, but as far as I know, this map shows the surface mass balance (or in that case anomaly thereof), i.e. only precipitation minus sublimation and melt. You will see the ice streams (or better their valleys), because they are at lower elevation, mostly driving sublimation (Foehn, sublimation in catabatic winds, possibly even storm ablation if they have a very detailed model) and melt rates up.

You can also check that, since Greenland still has a borderline positive SMB, but the overall balance is deep in the red due to calving.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: JimD on February 24, 2016, 08:50:19 PM
Thanks Raenor

For everyone here is where those cool daily graphics are found.

http://polarportal.dk/en/groenlands-indlandsis/nbsp/isens-overflade/ (http://polarportal.dk/en/groenlands-indlandsis/nbsp/isens-overflade/)
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Benje on March 08, 2016, 03:45:42 PM
There isn't an obvious place for posting about total Northern Hemisphere ice  but this seems as good as any since Greenland's ice dominates the hemisphere's ice.

I know that the loss of sea ice very directly affects the weather (and the climate) increasing wind speeds and energy and wave heights and energy and these effects are already with us in the Phillipines and more recently Fiji (200mph winds).

But as I have previously posted I think there is also merit in looking at the totality. As it were in another view different from the "just sea ice". It is at the other end of the spectrum: the "end" of the summer sea ice represents the "start" of the serious melting of Greenland. Neven's splendid blog now includes scientific reference to the mechanisms invoved.

Sea level rises from Greenland are presently quoted at .75mm pa (and those of Antartica .25mm pa). But if the rate of loss experienced by the sea ice transfers to Greenland 's ice the rate will imcrease to more like 2mm pa in a year or so incrementally when the summer sea ice is gone  and, I would imagine, rising fast thereafter.

Adding Greenland's more than 2,000 teratons of ice to those 11 remaing teratons of sea ice  in September 2003 shows the difference of scale between the two ice retentions. Of course global ice (incluing Antartica too would add another order of magnitude again). We are now on the slippery slope and it is a very long slope.

Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: sidd on March 28, 2016, 08:15:05 PM
Latest from the Francis team:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0391.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0391.1)

on arctic sea ice loss and greenland melt.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: johnm33 on March 31, 2016, 12:07:40 AM
There's activity at the Sermeq 'twins' in the north of Disko
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Focean.dmi.dk%2Farctic%2Fimages%2FMODIS%2FDisko%2F20160330rs02.ASAR.jpg&hash=e9e9afb4e00c4bffc53fd02ca0789a74)
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=277.0;attach=8886;image (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=277.0;attach=8886;image) [glacier names]
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Skier on March 31, 2016, 08:53:21 AM
It is only a matter of time until Greenland lives up to its name ::)

Then we will have climate as the Norsemen had in 1000 AD when they were able to have permanent settlements in the tens of thousands of inhabitants with self-sustaining farming and cattle raising.  Enough so that the Church set up several dioceses.  They wouldn't have done this had these been non-permanent settlements like we now have in Antarctica.  Currently, Greenland imports all its food, so we know it's far less green than 1000 years ago by a long shot.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Skier on March 31, 2016, 08:58:01 AM
There isn't an obvious place for posting about total Northern Hemisphere ice  but this seems as good as any since Greenland's ice dominates the hemisphere's ice.

I know that the loss of sea ice very directly affects the weather (and the climate) increasing wind speeds and energy and wave heights and energy and these effects are already with us in the Phillipines and more recently Fiji (200mph winds).

But as I have previously posted I think there is also merit in looking at the totality. As it were in another view different from the "just sea ice". It is at the other end of the spectrum: the "end" of the summer sea ice represents the "start" of the serious melting of Greenland. Neven's splendid blog now includes scientific reference to the mechanisms invoved.

Sea level rises from Greenland are presently quoted at .75mm pa (and those of Antartica .25mm pa). But if the rate of loss experienced by the sea ice transfers to Greenland 's ice the rate will imcrease to more like 2mm pa in a year or so incrementally when the summer sea ice is gone  and, I would imagine, rising fast thereafter.

Adding Greenland's more than 2,000 teratons of ice to those 11 remaing teratons of sea ice  in September 2003 shows the difference of scale between the two ice retentions. Of course global ice (incluing Antartica too would add another order of magnitude again). We are now on the slippery slope and it is a very long slope.

I think what you say is far fetched and highly inconsistent with the near monotonous sameness of total worldwide sea ice, as shown in the attached graph.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Entropy101 on March 31, 2016, 09:29:20 AM


I think what you say is far fetched and highly inconsistent with the near monotonous sameness of total worldwide sea ice, as shown in the attached graph.
Ahhh, the age old denier troll meme of confusing the sea ice area with the land ice volume. So cute.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: jdallen on March 31, 2016, 05:33:35 PM


I think what you say is far fetched and highly inconsistent with the near monotonous sameness of total worldwide sea ice, as shown in the attached graph.
Ahhh, the age old denier troll meme of confusing the sea ice area with the land ice volume. So cute.
You here too, Skier?  Look, I know you may disagree with some of the conclusions argued in these forums, but generally, someone walking into a new place, if they intend to act in good faith and are really intent on productive dialog, questions more and provokes less.

I suggest spending a bit more time understanding the "culture" of these forums and learning how to engage with us rather than insult us.

There are an awful lot of very, very smart people posting in these forums, including many people who are conducting active research into what's happening in the Cryosphere, and have made it their life's work for decades.  It is the height of conceit and fundamentally rude for someone to wander in and in the belief you are smarter, to start tossing around half-baked assertions when you really don't have a fraction of the knowledge many of these people apply as part of their vocation on a daily basis.

My recommendation to you is question more, insult less.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: magnamentis on March 31, 2016, 06:24:30 PM
but then the purpose of trolling is exactly that, trolling and on purpose, hence i admire all your patience while there is clearly only one solution to the problem IMHO.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on April 04, 2016, 10:40:20 AM
to just finish up the skier facade ....... I have noted that many 'open Deniers' are a tad afraid of surfacing here? They appear to view it as some extreme 'Warmist' operation?

For those of us here since the get go we know that the community is made up of a rich mix of beliefs but a common intent to 'understand' more. The fact that we mainly accept the science, after study, does not make up all catastrophists!

I had cause to ask one of my 'critics' what they would call a 'Doomsayer' once the Doom had arrived..... they declined to answer :)

 
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: S.Pansa on April 05, 2016, 11:10:56 AM
I just had a look at the artic weather forecast over at Climat Reanalyzer (http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/#ARC-LEA). By the looks of it (at least according to the GFS forecast from today), the Greenland Melt Season might start 2016 with a big bang.
I don't know how accurate the temp-forecast is but it looks as if most of south Greenland might see temps above freezing.  :o
Isn't it a bit early for that? Unfortunately I have not found an archive on the NSIDC Greenland page (http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/). But in 2013, for instance, the season  seems to have started  quite a bit later.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on April 05, 2016, 01:07:35 PM
I have begun to concern myself over the 'cold blob', to the SE of Greenland , and its impacts on the Jet Stream ( and so storm tracks?)?

This winter has seen a number of events run up the east coast of Greenland and if that trend continues then we should expect extreme rain events to the lower elevations through summer. I never really contemplated rainfall and ice sheet ablation....... maybe it's time for me to start too?
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: oren on April 06, 2016, 09:39:35 PM
I have begun to concern myself over the 'cold blob', to the SE of Greenland , and its impacts on the Jet Stream ( and so storm tracks?)?

This winter has seen a number of events run up the east coast of Greenland and if that trend continues then we should expect extreme rain events to the lower elevations through summer. I never really contemplated rainfall and ice sheet ablation....... maybe it's time for me to start too?

Yes...
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Cate on April 10, 2016, 07:02:43 PM
I just posted this in the What's New thread but maybe it goes here, since it's more weather-related? Sorry for duplication---still learning to find my way around here. 

Climatereanalyzer.org forecast maps are predicting temp anomalies 15C-20C above normal across much of Greenland through April 13, with large areas of ice sheet to be exposed to air above 0C. 

Tweeted and FB'd today by Severe Weather Europe.

https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/719115326705770496/photo/1
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: RaenorShine on April 11, 2016, 11:50:27 PM
Robert Scribbler has just posted another Greenland Article

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/04/11/warm-southerly-winds-gust-at-hurricane-force-over-greenland-in-staggering-early-season-heatwave-temperatures-now-hitting-up-to-41-degrees-f-above-average-at-summit/ (https://robertscribbler.com/2016/04/11/warm-southerly-winds-gust-at-hurricane-force-over-greenland-in-staggering-early-season-heatwave-temperatures-now-hitting-up-to-41-degrees-f-above-average-at-summit/#comments)

Weather Underground have a high of 17C (In April!) for Kangerlussuaq, Greenland https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/BGSF/2016/04/11/DailyHistory.html (https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/BGSF/2016/04/11/DailyHistory.html)

Going to be interesting to check the DMI surface mass balance readings over the next couple of days. NSIDC have not even started their daily readings yet...
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: charles_oil on April 12, 2016, 12:40:09 AM
I just asked NSIDC today - email response: "Although an exact date has not been determined, we will commence with Greenland melt data for 2016 sometime this month." so we may miss a main event in real-time !
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: bbr2314 on April 12, 2016, 07:21:55 AM
vroom

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dmi.dk%2Fuploads%2Ftx_dmidatastore%2Fwebservice%2Fe%2Fn%2Fi%2Fb%2Fm%2FMelt_combine.png&hash=ab54c75fe12b8b42933686f71a985f13)
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: RaenorShine on April 12, 2016, 10:23:56 AM
DMI shows Surface melt as bbr2314 points out.

DMI Surface Mass balance balance increased in the DMI model by 6Gt on 11/4. This is due to rain/snow over the majority of the sheet more than offsetting the heavy loss along the westernmost edge.

Although this is a gain, it does not show the early damage done to the snow blanket over the sheet or melt ponds created, the model will account for these once water leaves the ice sheet over the season.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on April 12, 2016, 03:54:50 PM
A message sent out on cryolist:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dear all,
 
On behalf of a number of colleagues and collaborators we would like to alert you to an unusually early melt event over the Greenland ice sheet this week.
We calculate around 11.8% of the area of the ice sheet melted yesterday and according to our analysis (back to 1990, we will extend this back to 1980 shortly), this is a full month earlier over such a large area (more than 10% of the ice sheet) than has occurred previously.
 
Observations from Greenland show that for example, Kangerlussuaq measured 17.8C (only 0.2C off the record temperature measured for the whole of Greenland in April) and Summit station -6.6C, a new record for April. PROMICE station KAN_U showed a daily mean temperature of 0.5C with a maximum hourly temperature of 3.05C, most of the lower PROMICE stations recorded temperatures between 5 and 10C.
 
The culprit driving melt at this time is an interesting omega pressure pattern with a very cold north America and warm air over Greenland.
 
We have assembled some information from AWS, radiosondes and models in the attached pdf document to explain the context of this strange start to the melt season in 2016. As usual, since 2013, daily updated surface mass balance plots, and PROMICE observations as well as GRACE total mass balance can all be viewed  here (in English):
 
http://polarportal.dk/en/groenlands-indlandsis/nbsp/isens-overflade/ (http://polarportal.dk/en/groenlands-indlandsis/nbsp/isens-overflade/)
 
Data and model output is available for research purposes.
 
On behalf of Polar Portal scientists at DMI, DTU and GEUS,
 
Best wishes
 
Ruth Mottram
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: A-Team on April 12, 2016, 04:07:05 PM
Quote
We have assembled some information from AWS, radiosondes and models in the attached pdf document
The first of 4 pages of that are:

http://lists.cryolist.org/pipermail/cryolist-cryolist.org/attachments/20160412/df4b427c/attachment-0001.pdf (http://lists.cryolist.org/pipermail/cryolist-cryolist.org/attachments/20160412/df4b427c/attachment-0001.pdf)

Unusually Early Greenland Melt
By Ruth Mottram, DMI

An early melt event over the Greenland ice sheet occurred this week, smashing by a month the previous records of more than 10% of the ice sheet melting. Based on observation-initialized weather model runs by DMI, almost 12% of the Greenland ice sheet had more than 1mm of melt on Monday 11th April, following an early start to melting the previous day.

Scientists at DMI were at first incredulous due to the early date. “We had to check that our models were still working properly” said Peter Langen, a climate scientist at DMI. “Fortunately we could see from the PROMICE.dk stations on the ice sheet that it had been well above melting, even above 10 °C. This helped to explain the results”.

The former top 3 earliest dates for a melt area larger than 10% were previously all in May (5th May 2010, 8th May 1990, 8th May 2006). “Even weather stations quite high up on the ice sheet observed very high temperatures on Monday”, said Robert Fausto, a scientist at GEUS who maintains PROMICE.dk melt data.

“At KAN_U for example, a site at 1840 m above sea level, we observed a maximum temperature of 3.1°C. This would be a warm day in July, never mind April”. Other PROMICE stations in the network at lower levels had daily average temperatures between 5 and 10 °C.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Barthol on April 12, 2016, 05:47:39 PM
Tweets from Jason Box
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 13, 2016, 12:46:13 AM
Picture from Snow White:

Greenland 2016 Melt Starts A Month Early (http://greatwhitecon.info/2016/04/greenland-2016-melt-starts-a-month-early/)

Some clouds around, but I expect you get the idea?
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Neven on April 13, 2016, 12:50:12 AM
I decided to do a short blog post on this: Greenland under early pressure too (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/04/greenland-under-early-pressure-too.html)
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 13, 2016, 03:20:41 AM
Quote
Eric Holthaus:  Greenland’s annual melt season just got underway…about two months early.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/720007480869126147

Quote
Kees van der Leun: Wondering why Greenland ice sheet is melting at record rate for April? Temperatures around 20°C above normal today!
https://twitter.com/sustainable2050/status/719984096198397952
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Shared Humanity on April 13, 2016, 02:20:02 PM
Realize this is anecdotal but I have been an avid gardener for 40 years and live in Chicago. We have had remarkably mild, wet summers for the past 5 or 6 years that have wreaked havoc on my tomato  and pepper plants. I have posted data here showing this but have not been able to locate it. I will revisit and post later when I have the time. I believe the pattern we are seeing in the Arctic right now with anomalously cold temps across the midsection of NA and a ridiculously warm Arctic may be the new normal for summer.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: bbr2314 on April 13, 2016, 05:23:32 PM
I think in a direct response to Greenland/AMOC slowdown, Quebec's snowpack is now hugely anomalous, and winter's grip shows no sign of letting go.

Most or all of this will fade by summer's end but I would imagine the albedo differential caused during spring as solar insolation increases would be very significant in terms of downstream cooling (that is a *lot* more solar energy deflected than during winter). Combined with the warm Atlantic, the gradient should trigger continued storminess heading into Greenland, with systems tapping deep Atlantic moisture/heat for prolonged periods of warmth over the icepack.

This may also be connected to an apparent recent lengthening in Hudson Bay's ice seasons, which we may or may not see play out again this year in the face of overwhelming warmth almost everywhere else.

...but all of the above come back to the freshwater pulse now emanating from Greenland on an increasingly long basis each year. Pretty crazy.

(https://www.ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/plot_anom_sdep.png)
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 14, 2016, 11:23:31 PM
Here is more information on the recent surface ice melting event in Greenland:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/greenland-ice-sheet-melting-as-temperatures-warm/ (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/greenland-ice-sheet-melting-as-temperatures-warm/)

Extract: "According to the Danish study, the ice melt occurring now was driven by warm air that advanced from the southwest, bringing rain with it along the coast. The researchers said this was similar to an extreme ice melt in 2012, when an astonishing 95 percent of the ice sheet surface experienced melt.
Usually at this time of year, rainfall and ice sheet meltwater encounters snow and re-freezing.
"Meltwater refreezing releases heat into the snow at depth, reducing the amount of heating needed for melt to start and forming ice layers that can help meltwater run off the ice sheet earlier with climate warming," said Jason Box of the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland.
"It is a very unusual situation, especially so early in the year, with very cold air and deep low pressures system to the west and east of Greenland and very warm air forming a 'cap' over the island," Martin Stendel, a DMI climate scientist, said on the organization's website. "This helped to force a frontal system with very warm air up the west coast bringing rain over the ice sheet.""

See also:
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/04/13/greenland_is_melting_much_faster_than_scientists_expected.html (http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/04/13/greenland_is_melting_much_faster_than_scientists_expected.html)
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 15, 2016, 11:06:15 AM
A Landsat 8 glimpse through the clouds of the recent surface melt:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/greenland-2016-melt-starts-a-month-early/#Apr-15 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/greenland-2016-melt-starts-a-month-early/#Apr-15)

Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: oren on April 15, 2016, 02:51:40 PM
Wow
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Shared Humanity on April 15, 2016, 03:58:24 PM
Do we know how much rain fell? Could some of these lakes include significant amounts of warm rainwater?
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: crandles on April 15, 2016, 09:09:44 PM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpolarportal.dk%2Ffileadmin%2Fpolarportal%2Fmass%2FGrace_curve_La_EN_20150800.png&hash=cdd93e3d05a9abb364669c652867c0a4)

Seems like 2012 was remarkable decline in mass. Since then looks like going back more towards the longer term straight line decline.

Any thought on this? I seem to recall talk of lots of layers becoming saturated with water. Perhaps once too much saturation, a lot of the water drains out giving high mass loss that year but subsequent years tend not to lose much mass?

Is it possible that an early melt event may not mean much?
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Buddy on April 15, 2016, 09:21:41 PM
Quote
Seems like 2012 was remarkable decline in mass. Since then looks like going back more towards the longer term straight line decline.

I would be "cautious" in coming to that conclusion.  Remember.....we are coming OFF the bounce of 2012 "trough"....to the 2014 "peak" (in Wall Street speak.....a "dead cat bounce").

When I look at that chart I see this:  A SLIGHTLY "arcing" downtrend that will continue to pick up speed to the downside after the two year "rebound" that is now "rolling over".  That "technical look" at the chart....also goes along with the physics of the situation the Greenland ice now finds itself:  Given all the feedback effects that are kicking in....in and around Greenland....I would EXPECT a slight to moderate pickup in the loss of ice over the next 5 - 10 years.

That's my "beancounter" 2 cents worth (and worth every penny you paid for it:)

Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Neven on April 17, 2016, 10:25:17 AM
The forecast of western Greenland undergoing another 'heat wave', is getting closer.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Shared Humanity on April 17, 2016, 03:23:47 PM
We may be witnessing the beginning of an historic melt season for the southern half of Greenland.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Buddy on April 17, 2016, 03:43:43 PM
Quote
We may be witnessing the beginning of an historic melt season for the southern half of Greenland.

Very possible.  And not very surprising (although disappointing).  The Arctic looks to be "attacked" from several areas this spring:

1)  "Inside" Svalbard (from the intrusion of waters from the north Atlantic....EARLY intrusion)
2)  Beufort Gyre fracturing...
3)  Warming northern and northeastern coast of Russia
4)  Early season Greenland warming...especially southern half of Greenland

This is the "sort" of thing one would expect as "the noose tightens" in around the Arctic ice sheet.  Nature "picks off" the easiest stuff first......but everything is eventually impacted.

Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Wipneus on April 18, 2016, 09:19:50 AM
I found this here:
SMOS confirms that Winter is NOT coming (http://www.cesbio.ups-tlse.fr/SMOS_blog/?p=5134)

Quote
From the late seventies with SMMR, passive microwave sensors have already shown their ability to monitor ice caps.

SMOS, thanks to its L-band capacity is sensitive to layering in the snow/ice pack but liquid water on the surface will also change drastically brightness temperatures  and this is exactly what happened.

SMOS sees thus the brightness temperatures over Western Greenland decrease due to heavy surface melting.

The videos below show an animation of SMOS measurements over Greenland.

The the South Eastern part of Greenland, along the coast line, the brightness temperatures suddenly drop from relatively high values (> 240 K. orange colour) to values lower than 220 K. (light blue, green yellow).


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cesbio.ups-tlse.fr%2FSMOS_blog%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2016%2F04%2FH.gif&hash=8753b3d02a4dcf719e75c90490717266)
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: A-Team on April 18, 2016, 01:43:55 PM
I'm struggling to see this. West Greenland was supposed to melting too, all the way north of Jakobshavn to Store Gletscher.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Neven on April 18, 2016, 02:47:51 PM
The forecast still looks like Greenland may be in for another heat wave:
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: A-Team on April 19, 2016, 01:27:58 PM
Quote
The forecast still looks like Greenland may be in for another heat wave:

However this new one plays out, I'm beginning to wonder overall if current climate models have any kind of grip on future weather patterns coming to Greenland.

Where in published climate models do we find the odd weather seen these days? If it is not some one-off random weather noise but a harbinger of an unforeseen new normal, we're in trouble a lot sooner than expected. It's fair to say that nobody has a clue which it is.

Rain rather than snow, thin clouds that hold in the heat as in the 2012 extreme, more open water longer in the adjacent Arctic Ocean, meltwater induced changes in the AMOC off SE Greenland -- these strike me both individually and jointly as inherently unfavorable for accurate modeling at a fine enough scale to predict the the necessary subtleties of localized temperature and precip trends that matter to the western Greenland ice sheet.

Along these same lines, I'm becoming increasing skeptical that paleo (ie the last interglacial) has any applicability to the near-future of Greenland. Although the ice sheet overall got through the Eemian better than once thought, a long list of considerations such as warming ramp-up and Milankovitch phasing do not seem remotely comparable. I would say the same -- little guidance there -- even had the ice sheet completely melted out back then.

The risk with both paleo and climate models is false reassurances followed by complacency. To justify their existence, academic fields must exude confidence and continually overstate knowledge and applicability. This does not seem to be working out for us if recent developments are any indication. Yet wait-and-see does not provide much lead time compared to precautionary principle.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: RaenorShine on April 19, 2016, 01:36:37 PM
NSIDC have now started the daily melt readings, and have updated the graph back to the beginning of the year. it shows the early melt blast at around 10% of the area, similar to the DMI model.

Image courtesy of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, Boulder.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Buddy on April 19, 2016, 01:37:29 PM
Full disclosure:  I'm not a scientist....but a financial guy.

Quote
Along these same lines, I'm becoming increasing skeptical that paleo (ie the last interglacial) has any applicability to the near-future of Greenland.

I've dealt with models in the financial world....and they "work" when conditions closely approximate what happened before under the same circumstances.

I have felt like you for a few years.  We are NOT dealing with the "same circumstances" AT ALL.  The rise in CO2 seems to be leading to a very fast transition to a new climate......where feedback forces are on steroids.  And we aren't even to the point of "finishing off" the Arctic ice sheet yet.  When that puppy is gone....Greenland is TOAST.  And just getting to that point.....with more and more open water is really putting the hammer down on the Arctic ice AND the Greenland ice sheet.

But to your point....I think the climate models are VERY LIKELY UNDERSTATING what is NOW happening...and will happen in the next 5 - 10 years as you know what hits the fan.

Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 19, 2016, 06:39:36 PM
Full disclosure:  I'm not a scientist....but a financial guy.

Quote
Along these same lines, I'm becoming increasing skeptical that paleo (ie the last interglacial) has any applicability to the near-future of Greenland.

I've dealt with models in the financial world....and they "work" when conditions closely approximate what happened before under the same circumstances.

I have felt like you for a few years.  We are NOT dealing with the "same circumstances" AT ALL.  The rise in CO2 seems to be leading to a very fast transition to a new climate......where feedback forces are on steroids.  And we aren't even to the point of "finishing off" the Arctic ice sheet yet.  When that puppy is gone....Greenland is TOAST.  And just getting to that point.....with more and more open water is really putting the hammer down on the Arctic ice AND the Greenland ice sheet.

But to your point....I think the climate models are VERY LIKELY UNDERSTATING what is NOW happening...and will happen in the next 5 - 10 years as you know what hits the fan.

The link leads to a NOAA presentation at a January 29 2016 seminar on climate models, and the attached image shows how well various CMIP5 models match the indicated observed data.  In an ideal world all of the squares on the matrix would be colored deep blue; which gives an idea just how fare current climate models have to go to reasonably match reality.

http://cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/MAPP/Webinars/2016/01-29-16/Lamarque.pdf (http://cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/MAPP/Webinars/2016/01-29-16/Lamarque.pdf)
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Carex on April 20, 2016, 02:33:33 PM
I think a large part of the problem is that the very concept of climate implies a certain level of stability.  We are currently in a situation where the planetary energy levels are in a state of change.  If you run a model 100 times in a changing system you are going to find 100 different results.  It is highly unlikely to be able to predict how all of this new energy is going to effect a million different variables.  In a complex system in a state of flux chaos rules, in my limited understanding, this is where the butterfly effect is important, this is where the diversity of possible futures is highest.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: crandles on April 20, 2016, 06:21:02 PM
I think a large part of the problem is that the very concept of climate implies a certain level of stability.  We are currently in a situation where the planetary energy levels are in a state of change.  If you run a model 100 times in a changing system you are going to find 100 different results.  It is highly unlikely to be able to predict how all of this new energy is going to effect a million different variables.  In a complex system in a state of flux chaos rules, in my limited understanding, this is where the butterfly effect is important, this is where the diversity of possible futures is highest.

Conventional wisdom is that weather is chaotic but climate is not being a boundary condition problem rather than a chaotic problem.

"In a complex system in a state of flux chaos rules" If there is a stable underlying system with chaotic noise on top, how are you ruling out small stable changes in the underlying system in order to jump to the chaos conclusion?



All models are wrong; some models are useful.
In this case, models are better at some things than others. Probably important to try to use them where they are reasonable? If you want to use them where they are bad, maybe a few bad models is better than no model, but take care.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 21, 2016, 05:27:52 PM
The ratio of the NOAA Temp Anoms for the Land vs Land-Ocean is much higher for the 2015-16 Super El Nino event than for the 1997-98 Super El Nino event (see the data at the following links):

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/globe/land/p12/12/1880-2016.csv (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/globe/land/p12/12/1880-2016.csv)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/globe/land_ocean/p12/12/1880-2016.csv (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/globe/land_ocean/p12/12/1880-2016.csv)

I suspect that this is partially the case because in 2016 the cold spots in the North Atlantic, and the Southern, Oceans are much more pronounced than in 1998, which reduces the Land-Ocean Temp Anom while leaving the Land Temp Anom largely unaffected (see the attached image from the linked NOAA State of the Climate report for March 2016):

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201603 (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201603)

I would like to know if anyone here has the skills to analyze the amount that the North Atlantic, and Southern, Oceans cold sports (associated with glacial ice melting) are suppressing the global mean land-ocean surface temperature anom, by integrating the color coding of the cold spots shown in the attached NOAA temp anom map (note that per Hansen et al 2016 the magnitude of this suppression will likely increase rapidly if we stay on the RCP 8.5 90%CL pathway that we are currently following).
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: A-Team on April 21, 2016, 10:24:41 PM
Quote
skills to analyze the amount that the North Atlantic, and Southern, Oceans cold spots (associated with glacial ice melting) are suppressing the global mean land-ocean surface temperature anom, by integrating the color coding of the cold spots

It would be a nightmare as the pixel count for each color would have to be convoluted with the areal distortion of each each lat/lon square in their long-depracated Robinson projection. The coloration is all wrong -- the palette squares themselves are a mixed bag of thousands of colors. That can't be fixed here by posterizing to say 5-bit. Although it is a small .png file, it has undergone lossy compression. The land boundaries and grid should always be done as a removable layer.

More importantly, it was the authors' job to provide the color histogram numbers in the first place, indeed to do the analysis you are proposing. Plus place a prominent link to an archived numerical table. So another piece of throw-away eye candy?

If you want science-level graphics, you may have to restrict your reading to papers from the E Rignot group and handful of others.

Quote
The Robinson projection is neither equal-area nor conformal, abandoning both for a compromise. The creator felt this produced a better overall view than could be achieved by adhering to either. The meridians curve gently, avoiding extremes, but thereby stretch the poles into long lines instead of leaving them as points. Hence, distortion close to the poles is severe, but quickly declines to moderate levels moving away from them.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robinson_projection
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 21, 2016, 10:46:42 PM
So another piece of throw-away eye candy?

If you want science-level graphics, you may have to restrict your reading to papers from the E Rignot group.

Thanks for the thoughtful reply.  Who knows, maybe Rahmstorf will write a new peer-reviewed paper on this topic.  However, Rahmstorf might need to expand his interest in cold spots to include the Southern Ocean.



See also:
https://climatecrocks.com/2016/03/01/mystery-deepens-around-greenland-cold-spot/

Extract: "The North Atlantic between Newfoundland and Ireland is practically the only region of the world that has defied global warming and even cooled. Last winter there even was the coldest on record – while globally it was the hottest on record. Our recent study (Rahmstorf et al. 2015) attributes this to a weakening of the Gulf Stream System, which is apparently unique in the last thousand years.

The whole world is warming. The whole world? No! A region in the subpolar Atlantic has cooled over the past century – unique in the world for an area with reasonable data coverage (Fig. 1). So what’s so special about this region between Newfoundland and Ireland?"
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 23, 2016, 10:44:23 AM
The forecast is pretty epic by May 1st gis will be snow free on land South of 70S.

AMAZING
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: orgu on April 24, 2016, 09:19:22 PM
With the recent heatwave on Greenland and another one coming aorund next few days (0-isotherm lingering around and above 1500m in many places in the south for many days), I would have liked to follow some runoff numbers. Like we have in Norway:

http://www2.nve.no/h/hd/plotreal/Q/index.html (http://www2.nve.no/h/hd/plotreal/Q/index.html)

especially this one which drain directly from the glacier Jostedalsbreen, and spikes in mid-summer heat-waves:

http://www2.nve.no/h/hd/plotreal/Q/0078.00008.000/ (http://www2.nve.no/h/hd/plotreal/Q/0078.00008.000/)

Anyone know of something??
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: A-Team on April 25, 2016, 01:56:47 AM
Quote
like to follow some runoff numbers for s Greenland. Like we have in Norway: Anyone know of something?
very impressive array of gauges there in Nway.

For western Greenland, the marine terminating glaciers don't have surface rivers so much; water exiting the glacier at the base of the calving front say 500 m below sea level, is only rarely measured by sonar.

Land-terminating glaciers to the south of Jakobshavn may have gauges seasonally. However with braided, shifting outlet streams it would not be feasible to measure total outfall. Kangerlussuaq is the best bet. I believe glaciologist D van As was down there last week measuring a stream. I have not seen any real time online river web sites.

However even with river gauge, automatic weather stations and fixed GPS, we would still be thrashing around for the perfect proxy to follow to monitor how much heat was absorbed, where it went, and what effect it is having surface discharge, frozen lenses, melt lakes, crevasse wedging, moulins or bedrock lubrication in western Greenland. I think it is way too early for the latter three.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: oren on April 25, 2016, 03:12:26 PM
Quote
like to follow some runoff numbers for s Greenland. Like we have in Norway: Anyone know of something?
very impressive array of gauges there in Nway.

For western Greenland, the marine terminating glaciers don't have surface rivers so much; water exiting the glacier at the base of the calving front say 500 m below sea level, is only rarely measured by sonar.

Land-terminating glaciers to the south of Jakobshavn may have gauges seasonally. However with braided, shifting outlet streams it would not be feasible to measure total outfall. Kangerlussuaq is the best bet. I believe glaciologist D van As was down there last week measuring a stream. I have not seen any real time online river web sites.

However even with river gauge, automatic weather stations and fixed GPS, we would still be thrashing around for the perfect proxy to follow to monitor how much heat was absorbed, where it went, and what effect it is having surface discharge, frozen lenses, melt lakes, crevasse wedging, moulins or bedrock lubrication in western Greenland. I think it is way too early for the latter three.

If any budgeted body is reading this, It would be great to have a chart of water flux at Kangerlussuaq (like there is for the Mackenzie for example), to be consulted during the melting season and compared between years. It should be a good proxy for southern GIS surface melt conditions. I'm not sure how difficult this might be to produce technically, given the torrential flow that comes every once in a while, and freezing conditions at other times.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Andreas Muenchow on April 25, 2016, 04:23:48 PM
I've dealt with models in the financial world....and they "work" when conditions closely approximate what happened before under the same circumstances.
<Philosophical Derail>There are fundamental truths in physics that are expressed as partial differential equations that may look complicated, but in their essence are really simple. Conservation of mass, energy, and angular momentum are such simple laws that are expressed as complex equations that are the basis of climate modeling.

Most people in climate debates (including many scientists) prefer to think in linear regressions between as few variables as possible. Financial models, too, have a strong foundation in past data that often is an expression of human behavior. While this has been useful, there is no guarantee that yesterday's regression is any good tommorrow.

To me as a physicist, these are not models, but statistical attempts to discern patterns where no model exists. This is why in Finance you can model only what has happened before, but in physics you can model accurately what has never happened before. The difference is that our physical laws such as conservation of mass and energy are independent of data, they always hold. This allows us to make predictions beyond the event horizon of what has happened already and for what we have no data.</Philosophical Derail>
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: magnamentis on April 25, 2016, 05:03:04 PM
can't get enough of this kind, a genuine pleasure to read ;)
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Buddy on April 25, 2016, 06:32:33 PM
Philosophical Derail:  Finance models vs scientific models.

Andreas:  I would agree with much that you say.  What I call "financial modeling"....is an attempt to "put numbers to what I THINK is likely to happen in the future to a number of variables."  It is based on some "laws"....but the outcome of reality in the future vs the model, is ALWAYS dependent on things we have no ABSOLUTE CONTROL OVER:  (1) The decisions people will make day-to-day, and (2) the type of "execution" people will have on a day-by-day basis, (3) as well as decisions that customers might make that affect us.

And I think what you are saying....is that is NOT "modeling to you".  I understand what you are trying to say.

In physics....the laws of physics hold.  PERIOD (for the most part...unless a "law" is found not to be true).  And you have no "difference of execution by humans" as you do in financial modeling.  So yours is a mathematical exercise of sorts...and as long as ALL THE VARIABLES have been accounted for.....it can be "modeled" out into the future that will come close to the actual outcome.

I guess I would raise two points:  (1)  if you look at the "modeling" of the Arctic ice sheet 10-15 years ago.....I doubt you would find a single model that would reflect the melt that we have to date.  Over the last 15 years.....as each year passes, the models keep brining in the date that the ice will first "be gone."  And this is really the premise for me saying that it is my belief that "the climate models" have been TOO CONSERVATIVE.  They have UNDERESTIMATED the melting of the Arctic ice sheet.

Which leads me to a second point:  (2)  If they have underestimated the melting of the Arctic ice sheet....won't that lead to them underestimating things such as (a) increased temperatures at an earlier date than modeled, (b) melting of the permafrost at an earlier date than modeled, (c) warming of the oceans at an earlier date than modeled, (d) the earlier melting of Greenland than initially modeled, etc.

The other problem with have with scientific models.....is we hand them over to politicians to make decisions with them... :-[

Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: P-maker on April 25, 2016, 08:37:18 PM
orgu, A-Team & oren

The official Greenlandic authority in charge of streamflow, river gauges and run-off is: http://www.asiaq.gl/en (http://www.asiaq.gl/en)

As you say A-Team: no run-off measurements are apparently available online. However, you can see the current positive air temperatures up along the west coast here: http://vejr.asiaq.gl/#/table. (http://vejr.asiaq.gl/#/table.) It is also possible on the basis of these numbers and on the basis of PROMICE–data (available here: http://promice.org/CurrentWeatherMap.html (http://promice.org/CurrentWeatherMap.html) ) to calculate “melting degree days” based on either daily or monthly averages (e.g.  https://www.escholar.manchester.ac.uk/api/datastream?publicationPid=uk-ac-man-scw:1b4062&datastreamId=POST-PEER-REVIEW-PUBLISHERS.PDF (https://www.escholar.manchester.ac.uk/api/datastream?publicationPid=uk-ac-man-scw:1b4062&datastreamId=POST-PEER-REVIEW-PUBLISHERS.PDF) see fig. 2 & 4)

Norway found oil and can now afford direct measurements of almost everything in every second stream all over their country. Greenland did not find oil and can now hardly afford to keep a system of off-line data loggers running throughout the year.

I would use this opportunity to question whether we really need to know all the details of the tidewater glaciers to & fro. Do we really need to measure every freaking detail up- and down the coast to know, that harsh southerly winds along the west coast of Greenland with temperatures above freezing will lead to extensive melting and run-off. Sometimes it is sad enough to just know the overall picture of an ice-sheet vanishing before your eyes in the midst of April.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Carex on April 26, 2016, 03:44:59 PM
I think a large part of the problem is that the very concept of climate implies a certain level of stability.  We are currently in a situation where the planetary energy levels are in a state of change.  If you run a model 100 times in a changing system you are going to find 100 different results.  It is highly unlikely to be able to predict how all of this new energy is going to effect a million different variables.  In a complex system in a state of flux chaos rules, in my limited understanding, this is where the butterfly effect is important, this is where the diversity of possible futures is highest.

Conventional wisdom is that weather is chaotic but climate is not being a boundary condition problem rather than a chaotic problem.

"In a complex system in a state of flux chaos rules" If there is a stable underlying system with chaotic noise on top, how are you ruling out small stable changes in the underlying system in order to jump to the chaos conclusion?



All models are wrong; some models are useful.
In this case, models are better at some things than others. Probably important to try to use them where they are reasonable? If you want to use them where they are bad, maybe a few bad models is better than no model, but take care.

1.  Bad models are useful.  Perhaps we learn most and fastest from bad models as we learn to improve them.  I strongly believe in the use of a wide variety of models in any undertaking that involves thinking.

2. I do not consider my jump to the chaos conclusion as a given but as a higher probability.  The primary reasons being that as total energy in the system increases the likelihood that each physical feature on the planet will react to or alter the energy in the system in an unforeseen manner increases.  These unforeseen details have an increased chance of accumulating in unseen ways to produce unseen results.  Each stable underlying system is increasingly likely to be altered, to become less stable.  Although stable systems are likely to resist change, changing the systems around them increases the likelihood of changing them as well.

3. We are now in a system with energies for which we do not have solid historical data to check and calibrate our models with.  The energies in the system are continuing to increase, decreasing our ability to check the model.  The rate of increase of energy in the system is continuing to increase.  Chaos, I believe, increases the probability of un-predicted (unpredictable?) conditions occurring, particularly during the periods of most rapid change.  Once  energy levels become more stable model predictability will increase but the next steady state may not reflect the conditions that occur during the periods of rapid change.  The period of rapid change will be, at a minimum, 100 years.

4.  This is the babbling of a lowly field botanist who is better suited to roaming around the woods and looking for things.  I am happy to be schooled in matters physical and mathematical.  I consider it a complement that my comment drew criticism from you Mr. Crandles as I have had my opinions changed more than once by your commentary.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 26, 2016, 05:41:24 PM
The first image shows the Nullschool Surface Temp & Wind Map focused on Greenland for April 26 2016; and the second shows the comparable forecast conditions for April 30 2016.  For this entire five-day period nullschool projects above freezing temperatures along large portions of Greenland's West Coast areas, which will likely stimulate calving activity for such key marine terminating glaciers in this area as Jakobshavn.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: RaenorShine on May 18, 2016, 08:26:52 PM
The Greenland melt season has continued to get off to an above average start, with a far larger melt pulse over the last couple of days.

DMI are showing that surface met has got underway in earnest on the west coast, with 2Gt being lost each day at the moment, a few weeks earlier than the 2012 start of the melt season.

Image courtesy of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, Boulder.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 10, 2016, 03:05:16 AM
Per the linked article, changes in the jet stream may well be making Greenland's melt season worse:

http://www.adn.com/arctic/2016/06/09/weird-jet-stream-behavior-could-be-making-greenlands-melting-even-worse-scientists-say/ (http://www.adn.com/arctic/2016/06/09/weird-jet-stream-behavior-could-be-making-greenlands-melting-even-worse-scientists-say/)

Extract: "But when a group of scientists looked back at the last summer melt season — 2015 — they found something odd and troubling.

Specifically, they found that Greenland had shown much more unusual melting in its colder northern stretches than in the warmer south, and that this had occurred because of very strange behavior in the atmosphere above it. During the month of July, an atmospheric phenomenon called a "cutoff high" — a region of high pressure that stayed relatively immobile over the ice sheet, bringing with it sustained sunny conditions — lingered for many days and produced unusual warmth at the surface and record melting for northwest Greenland."

Edit: See also:

M. Tedesco, T. Mote, X. Fettweis, E. Hanna, J. Jeyaratnam, J. F. Booth,   R. Datta & K. Briggs (June 9, 2016), "Arctic cut-off high drives the poleward shift of a new Greenland melting record", Nature Communications 7, Article number: 11723 doi:10.1038/ncomms11723

http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160609/ncomms11723/full/ncomms11723.html (http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160609/ncomms11723/full/ncomms11723.html)

Abstract: "Large-scale atmospheric circulation controls the mass and energy balance of the Greenland ice sheet through its impact on radiative budget, runoff and accumulation. Here, using reanalysis data and the outputs of a regional climate model, we show that the persistence of an exceptional atmospheric ridge, centred over the Arctic Ocean, was responsible for a poleward shift of runoff, albedo and surface temperature records over the Greenland during the summer of 2015. New records of monthly mean zonal winds at 500 hPa and of the maximum latitude of ridge peaks of the 5,700±50 m isohypse over the Arctic were associated with the formation and persistency of a cutoff high. The unprecedented (1948–2015) and sustained atmospheric conditions promoted enhanced runoff, increased the surface temperatures and decreased the albedo in northern Greenland, while inhibiting melting in the south, where new melting records were set over the past decade."
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 10, 2016, 09:59:09 PM
Greenland witnessed its highest June temperature ever recorded on Thursday
Quote
Greenland has been abnormally warm this spring. (NASA)

Nuuk, Greenland’s capital, soared to 75 degrees (24 Celsius) Thursday, marking the warmest temperature ever recorded in the Arctic country during June. Nuuk sits on Greenland’s southwest coast, where the country’s warmest weather typically occurs.

It was warmer in Nuuk than it was in New York City, where the high was only 71 degrees.

The Danish Meteorological Institute has confirmed on a preliminary basis that the Nuuk measurement would replace the previous record of 73.8 degrees (23.2 Celsius), which was set in Kangerlussuaq on June 15 in 2014. That temperature was also recorded in southwest Greenland about 200 miles (320 km) north of Nuuk.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/06/10/greenland-witnessed-its-highest-june-temperature-ever-recorded-on-thursday/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/06/10/greenland-witnessed-its-highest-june-temperature-ever-recorded-on-thursday/)
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: sidd on June 11, 2016, 09:56:06 PM
http://nsidc.org/greenland-today (http://nsidc.org/greenland-today)

Melt extent is up,up and away. I note that the saddle between north and south domes around 67N is now melting. That saddle is collapsing as in the Gregoire treatment (doi: 10.1038/nature11257), to which i have alluded earlier.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: wili on June 11, 2016, 11:39:27 PM
Could this be related to the slowdown/reverse of sea ice retreat? How much of that fresh water is making its way into the Arctic basin?
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Neven on June 11, 2016, 11:44:30 PM
Could this be related to the slowdown/reverse of sea ice retreat? How much of that fresh water is making its way into the Arctic basin?

I'm thinking almost none of it enters the Arctic as currents move south on the eastern side of Greenland, and then up Baffin Bay where melt is proceeding fast, and then most of it moves south again, or God knows where.

But even if all of it would end up in the Arctic, it wouldn't have any impact at all. I can't imagine it matches what the Lena, Ob, Yenisei and MacKenzie are bringing to the Arctic.

The slowdown in the rate of sea ice decrease is mostly weather-related.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Adam Ash on June 12, 2016, 01:47:26 PM
Isn't it more likely that the main effect of increased melt across the island is to bring more energy into the middle and base of the ice mass - thus warming the ice, reducing its tensile strength and bringing it all to a much more sensitive state even if it is still standing up pretending it is ice?

I would imagine that there  would be some 'leveling' of the temperature gradients during non-melt periods which will spread the heat throughout the ice mass - tending towards a fairly uniform temperature.  A possible end result being that vastly more ice gets brought to a temperature where it can switch from standing up and firm and moving only in terms of the ice models relating to very cold ice to a much more fluid state, under only a minor impetus.  That impetus could be thermal (more melt) and/or physical such as a minor tremor from a nearby glacier calving, a nearby earthquake or release of support as a glacier lurches down the hill. 

I'm imagine there are lots of sites with temperature probes in depth keeping an eye on this, but to me it all increases the potential for sudden surges of globally significant ice loss.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 12, 2016, 04:02:29 PM
Isn't it more likely that the main effect of increased melt across the island is to bring more energy into the middle and base of the ice mass - thus warming the ice, reducing its tensile strength and bringing it all to a much more sensitive state even if it is still standing up pretending it is ice?

I am sure this is a major result of the melt. I believe there is another major effect where melt ponds form on the ice sheet. These areas of the ice sheet are also showing pronounced and sustained drops in elevation. None of this melt water flows on top of the ice to the sea. It instead slices to the base of the ice sheet and flows to the sea as dramatically increased basal flow, carrying with it large amounts of sediment.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on June 12, 2016, 05:30:03 PM
I think we really need to look into the ice sheet under active melt pond regions to see just how mangled the basal ice is becoming?

In mining any caver collapse propagates up to ten times the height of the collapse so a swiss cheese base will loose integrity from both melt and collapse?

I fear 'slumping' over geographic structures dropping ice at higher elevations into melting zones and increasing meltwater outflow?
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Stephen on June 13, 2016, 02:06:25 AM
A few questions that maybe belong in the stupid questions thread:

Is there a chartic type graph available anywhere that allows us to compare time-of-year over multiple years?

Is there any way to estimate the volume of ice melted? (monthly perhaps?) Or do we need to wait for end-of-year for those kind of estimates?
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Tigertown on June 13, 2016, 02:26:40 AM
GRACE is the NASA program for measuring the ice both for Greenland and Antarctica. They rarely update their official site, other than stating that 280 billion metric tons a year are melting with regard to Greenland alone, including what calves off and melts as icebergs later. Funny thing is, I watched an interview of the GRACE programs leader, who stated that the number is about 330 billion metric tons a year,again Greenland only. So, I think the site info needs updated. If anyone knows of another site that gives monthly or more frequent info, it would be great to know.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Juan C. García on June 13, 2016, 03:18:07 AM
A few questions that maybe belong in the stupid questions thread:

Is there a chartic type graph available anywhere that allows us to compare time-of-year over multiple years?

Is there any way to estimate the volume of ice melted? (monthly perhaps?) Or do we need to wait for end-of-year for those kind of estimates?

The only graph that I now is this NSIDC graph. And maybe we have been keeping to much attention on Arctic Sea Ice and we should focus more on land and Greenland.

Big jump on June!
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Tigertown on June 13, 2016, 04:27:24 AM
If that trend continues, I'm sure we will have to pay more attention.If anyone hasn't seen the clip on Youtube of Kangerlussuaq, Greenland from July 12,2012 of the bridge over Watson River washing out from melt water runoff and a tractor getting carried off, might want to look it up. This year might be worse.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: swoozle on June 13, 2016, 04:37:50 AM
So, I think the site info needs updated. If anyone knows of another site that gives monthly or more frequent info, it would be great to know.
Danish polar portal
(http://polarportal.dk/en/groenlands-indlandsis/nbsp/isens-overflade/ (http://polarportal.dk/en/groenlands-indlandsis/nbsp/isens-overflade/))
has info such as:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: diablobanquisa on June 13, 2016, 11:42:54 PM
In addition to NSIDC and Polar Portal, you can also check:

DMI: http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/ (http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/)

Xavier FETTWEIS, MAR model: http://climato.be/cms/index.php?climato=the-2016-melt-season-over-greenland-as-simulated-by-marv3-5-2 (http://climato.be/cms/index.php?climato=the-2016-melt-season-over-greenland-as-simulated-by-marv3-5-2)


Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Tigertown on July 03, 2016, 02:05:41 PM
Time.com had a short article on 7/2/2016 saying that Greenland is having an exceptional melt season. Other than stating the early start which I think everybody pretty much knew about already, they featured a GIF from NASA. Not much more info than that or any real data.
Click on image to activate

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: johnm33 on July 03, 2016, 05:14:39 PM
Looks like everything is heading @10% south[?]
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: iceman on July 17, 2016, 11:53:27 AM
Last big melt spike of the season coming up, as pressure systems align to draw some of the northern Baffin heat over Greenland.  On current forecast it looks like melt extent will approach 40% from the 19th through 21st or longer.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Hugabufallo on July 21, 2016, 12:43:57 AM
Last big melt spike of the season coming up, as pressure systems align to draw some of the northern Baffin heat over Greenland.  On current forecast it looks like melt extent will approach 40% from the 19th through 21st or longer.

Looks like you can see the effects of that Baffin bay heat on the west coast of Greenland. This is MODIS terra for 20th July on the area just south of Jakobshavn.

Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: prokaryotes on July 21, 2016, 01:11:20 AM
The people who investigate and follow up on Greenland's ice melt should also take a close look at the potential of methane emissions connected to subglacial melting.

Molecular and biogeochemical evidence for methane cycling beneath the western margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Quote
Microbial processes that mineralize organic carbon and enhance solute production at the bed of polar ice sheets could be of a magnitude sufficient to affect global elemental cycles. To investigate the biogeochemistry of a polar subglacial microbial ecosystem, we analyzed water discharged during the summer of 2012 and 2013 from Russell Glacier, a land-terminating outlet glacier at the western margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The molecular data implied that the most abundant and active component of the subglacial microbial community at these marginal locations were bacteria within the order Methylococcales (59–100% of reverse transcribed (RT)-rRNA sequences). mRNA transcripts of the particulate methane monooxygenase (pmoA) from these taxa were also detected, confirming that methanotrophic bacteria were functional members of this subglacial ecosystem. Dissolved methane ranged between 2.7 and 83 μm in the subglacial waters analyzed, and the concentration was inversely correlated with dissolved oxygen while positively correlated with electrical conductivity. Subglacial microbial methane production was supported by δ13C-CH4 values between −64‰ and −62‰ together with the recovery of RT-rRNA sequences that classified within the Methanosarcinales and Methanomicrobiales. Under aerobic conditions, >98% of the methane in the subglacial water was consumed over ~30 days incubation at ~4 °C and rates of methane oxidation were estimated at 0.32 μm per day.

Our results support the occurrence of active methane cycling beneath this region of the Greenland Ice Sheet, where microbial communities poised in oxygenated subglacial drainage channels could serve as significant methane sinks.
http://www.nature.com/ismej/journal/v8/n11/full/ismej201459a.html (http://www.nature.com/ismej/journal/v8/n11/full/ismej201459a.html)

The region was at least during the sample time, a source of atmospheric methane. If there is a discussion on this topic somewhere here, please point me to it, thanks.

Related
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_Glacier_(Greenland) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_Glacier_(Greenland))
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: prokaryotes on July 21, 2016, 11:30:42 PM
Made a blog post

Ice sheet deglaciation and methane emissions, with the scope on Greenland’s melt season
Greenland's melt, what does it mean for future atmospheric methane?
http://climatestate.com/2016/07/21/ice-sheet-deglaciation-and-methane-emissions-with-the-scope-on-greenlands-melt-season/ (http://climatestate.com/2016/07/21/ice-sheet-deglaciation-and-methane-emissions-with-the-scope-on-greenlands-melt-season/)
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: silkman on July 22, 2016, 08:51:36 AM
Melt extent, as forecast, went above 40% on July 20.

Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 03, 2016, 06:50:57 PM
Per Jason Box's tweet today (see images) the darkness of Greenland in July 2016 was the 5th darkest of the past 17 Julys.
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: etienne on August 19, 2016, 12:01:29 AM
Hello,

NSIDC has a new Greenland Cumulative melt day area graph. I once asked them if they could do something like that, maybe this could explain why it now exists.

This graph allows an easy comparison of different melt years.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fnsidc.org%2Fgreenland-today%2Ffiles%2F2016%2F08%2FGrnToday_Aug2016_Fig2_adj.png&hash=8f8b43e63d1366fd819d4df19271f8e1)

Best regards,

Etienne
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Tealight on August 19, 2016, 11:06:11 AM
According to DMI this year has been a pretty average melting season in terms of surface mass balance. The melting area was even below average for most of the summer
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Lennart van der Linde on August 19, 2016, 11:48:26 AM
According to DMI this year has been a pretty average melting season in terms of surface mass balance. The melting area was even below average for most of the summer

Pretty average compared to 1990-2013 yes, but above average compared to 1981-2010, according to NSIDC:
http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/ (http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/)
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: Darvince on August 20, 2016, 05:05:48 AM
According to DMI this year has been a pretty average melting season in terms of surface mass balance. The melting area was even below average for most of the summer
This may be a stupid question, but why is the DMI mass balance for almost every year positive when the ice sheet is thinning?
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: JimD on August 20, 2016, 05:29:43 AM
According to DMI this year has been a pretty average melting season in terms of surface mass balance. The melting area was even below average for most of the summer
This may be a stupid question, but why is the DMI mass balance for almost every year positive when the ice sheet is thinning?

Not a stupid question at all.

Quote
.....The figure below shows the total daily contribution from all points on the ice sheet (top) and the same accumulated from September 1st to now (bottom). The blue curves show this season’s surface mass balance in gigatons (Gt; 1 Gt is one billion tons and corresponds to 1 cubic kilometer of water), and for comparison the mean curves from the historical model run are shown with two standard deviations on either side. Note that the accumulated curve does not end at 0 at the end of the year. Over the year, it snows more than it melts, but calving of icebergs also adds to the total mass budget of the ice sheet. Satellite observations over the last decade show that the ice sheet is not in balance. The calving loss is greater than the gain from surface mass balance, and Greenland is losing mass at about 200 Gt/yr.....

1GT is equal to a cubic kilometer

http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/ (http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/)
Title: Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
Post by: oren on August 31, 2016, 01:12:41 AM
Hello,

NSIDC has a new Greenland Cumulative melt day area graph. I once asked them if they could do something like that, maybe this could explain why it now exists.

This graph allows an easy comparison of different melt years.

Best regards,

Etienne

Good graph indeed.