Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Arctic sea ice => Topic started by: Nightvid Cole on March 08, 2016, 04:45:17 PM

Title: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on March 08, 2016, 04:45:17 PM
The sun is slowly returning to the Arctic, as we prepare for another melting season. The ice is thinner than last year on the Alaskan side, according to DMI, though there is less very thin ice around the North Pole:

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php)



Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 08, 2016, 04:50:50 PM
You're too earlyyyyyy...  ;D
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 09, 2016, 01:38:11 AM
You're too earlyyyyyy...  ;D

Or maybe not?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/02/the-2016-arctic-winter-sea-ice-puzzle/#comment-213802 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/02/the-2016-arctic-winter-sea-ice-puzzle/#comment-213802)

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: epiphyte on March 09, 2016, 03:09:48 AM
Maybe not too early, maybe so. Either way, I think that given the uncertainties we should defer to neven on when to start the melting season thread - if only to put him on the spot >:)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Laurent on March 09, 2016, 10:20:53 AM
This 23-Second Video Shows Old Arctic Sea Ice’s Demise
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/video-old-arctic-sea-ice-20112?utm_content=buffer8e534&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/video-old-arctic-sea-ice-20112?utm_content=buffer8e534&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer)

https://www.youtube.com/embed/fo1Boie7mtI (https://www.youtube.com/embed/fo1Boie7mtI)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 09, 2016, 01:19:31 PM
This 23-Second Video Shows Old Arctic Sea Ice’s Demise
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/video-old-arctic-sea-ice-20112?utm_content=buffer8e534&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/video-old-arctic-sea-ice-20112?utm_content=buffer8e534&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer)

https://www.youtube.com/embed/fo1Boie7mtI (https://www.youtube.com/embed/fo1Boie7mtI)
Unfortunately it stops after the 2015 minimum.

Maybe not too early, maybe so. Either way, I think that given the uncertainties we should defer to neven on when to start the melting season thread - if only to put him on the spot >:)
The Forum has a natural way of moving from one thread to another.  ;D

I think in a week or two, when the max is well behind us (CT SIA seems to have turned the corner, or at least be on a plateau, but IJIS SIE has been going up sharply in the past two days and could top the preliminary peak in the next few days) everyone will continue the discussion here.

That's when I will put a sticky on this thread, and un-sticky the freezing thread.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 09, 2016, 05:37:21 PM
I didn't know whether to put it here or in the freezing thread. Anyway, the Arctic may get a strong late season surge as "ADA" (ADA - "Arctic Dipole Anomaly") seems to make a return by next week. The question is whether this is just temporarily or if a more persistent set up with high pressure building over the Arctic in tandem with a low over nortwestern Russia will start to emerge?
If so, we should see a high transport of ice through Fram Strait. At the same time the SIE numbers should rise quite sharp for a short period.

The GFS 06z run had a very strong ADA by the time of equinox. But GFS is as we all know just like may politicians e.g changing their views many times (sorry for the ironic).

Otherwise than that, it seems to me that Okhotsk will see considerably warmer temps by next week which should start the death of all "fish ice" there.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on March 09, 2016, 07:17:41 PM
I didn't know whether to put it here or in the freezing thread. Anyway, the Arctic may get a strong late season surge as "ADA" (ADA - "Arctic Dipole Anomaly") seems to make a return by next week. The question is whether this is just temporarily or if a more persistent set up with high pressure building over the Arctic in tandem with a low over nortwestern Russia will start to emerge?
If so, we should see a high transport of ice through Fram Strait. At the same time the SIE numbers should rise quite sharp for a short period.

The GFS 06z run had a very strong ADA by the time of equinox. But GFS is as we all know just like may politicians e.g changing their views many times (sorry for the ironic).

Otherwise than that, it seems to me that Okhotsk will see considerably warmer temps by next week which should start the death of all "fish ice" there.

Is the wind also going to be out of the East, to push the ice edge Westward?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: ktonine on March 10, 2016, 09:07:30 AM
Wayne Davidson reports the first signs of bottom melt (http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/03/arctic-ocean-archipelago-sea-ifirst.html) on March 7th (South Cornwallis Island - 75N).

For comparison here are his past sightings:
2015 March 26 
2014 April 10 
2013 March 23 
2012 March 17
2011 April 15 
2010 March 19 
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Espen on March 10, 2016, 10:07:53 PM
The sea ice off North East Greenland (Fram / Greenland Sea) looks very fragile this season?:

Click on image to enlarge!
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 11, 2016, 12:24:27 AM
The sea ice off North East Greenland (Fram / Greenland Sea) looks very fragile this season?:

Ice cubes, don't you mean?

Actually, on the seaward edge, notice the pretty obvious melt margin with tendrils of disintegrating ice pulled away from the nearer-shore pack?   Highlights just how sharp the demarcation is between warmer water intruding from further south, and the cold surface flow along the Greenland margin out of the Fram.

NOAA sst anomalies attached for reference, but it appears the water warms up a full degree C warmer than normal within a couple hundred KM of the pack.  It's probably closer than that, but in the transition zone, that would be where the ice is disintegrating...
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 11, 2016, 02:10:57 PM
The sea ice off North East Greenland (Fram / Greenland Sea) looks very fragile this season?

Are you familiar with my idiosyncratic theory on that front Espen?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/01/new-year-2016-arctic-meltdown-update/#Video (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/01/new-year-2016-arctic-meltdown-update/#Video)

Quote
The ice edge did retreat in the immediate aftermath of what is referred to here in the United Kingdom as “Storm Frank“. Frank led to lots of flooding in the North of the nation, and also to some strong winds inside the Arctic Circle.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 12, 2016, 12:11:21 PM
Since we're already contemplating melting sea ice (and the snow thereon), here's the current Topaz 4 Arctic snow depth map:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#Topaz4Snow (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#Topaz4Snow)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 12, 2016, 02:04:06 PM
Thx for reminding us that source Jim. And here is the comparison of the last three years. Still a lot of snow to fall before May, but worth noting the lack of snow depth at Beaufort (makes sense given the amount of recently frozen thin ice there) and the reduced numbers in CAB (better compare the years than trust the model 100% I assume). In 2014 snow protected the Arctic ice well, you may remember.

Beaufort looks so vulnerable this time. ESS better protected as in 2014

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Paddy on March 12, 2016, 02:07:14 PM
It's far too early to predict, of course, but what are the chances all of this fragility may lead to new records being set at both maximum (area, if not extent) and minimum this year?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: wili on March 12, 2016, 05:37:34 PM
We seem to have jumped the gun a bit starting this thread so early after all:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html)

New high for the season on the 70th day--12.85256 m sq k

(still a record low for the date, though)

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 12, 2016, 06:29:00 PM
Thx for reminding us that source Jim. And here is the comparison of the last three years. Still a lot of snow to fall before May, but worth noting the lack of snow depth at Beaufort (makes sense given the amount of recently frozen thin ice there) and the reduced numbers in CAB (better compare the years than trust the model 100% I assume). In 2014 snow protected the Arctic ice well, you may remember.

Beaufort looks so vulnerable this time. ESS better protected as in 2014

seaicesailor - while I like the screen captures, what's the link to the site you are using?

Looking at the images, I'm also reflecting on how they match up to the corresponding melt season.  The low cover over the Laptev comes to mind, and how we've seen the "Laptev Bite" play out over the last few seasons.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 12, 2016, 11:46:10 PM
Thx for reminding us that source Jim. And here is the comparison of the last three years. Still a lot of snow to fall before May, but worth noting the lack of snow depth at Beaufort (makes sense given the amount of recently frozen thin ice there) and the reduced numbers in CAB (better compare the years than trust the model 100% I assume). In 2014 snow protected the Arctic ice well, you may remember.

Beaufort looks so vulnerable this time. ESS better protected as in 2014

seaicesailor - while I like the screen captures, what's the link to the site you are using?

Looking at the images, I'm also reflecting on how they match up to the corresponding melt season.  The low cover over the Laptev comes to mind, and how we've seen the "Laptev Bite" play out over the last few seasons.
http://thredds.met.no/thredds/godiva2/godiva2.html?server=http://thredds.met.no/thredds/wms/topaz/dataset-topaz4-arc-myoceanv2-be (http://thredds.met.no/thredds/godiva2/godiva2.html?server=http://thredds.met.no/thredds/wms/topaz/dataset-topaz4-arc-myoceanv2-be)

Play with layers of data, map types, scale etc.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 13, 2016, 12:07:35 AM
It's far too early to predict, of course, but what are the chances all of this fragility may lead to new records being set at both maximum (area, if not extent) and minimum this year?

Not too much IMO it very much depends on weather. Before Summer a lot of snow fell for example in 2014.

However a  bad start and a record warm year don"t help overall. I def find interesting how current condition are to follow the changes.

That weak Beaufort ice could not last much if Spring brings some warmth and sun. The ESS was cold last year too, weather changed in mid June IIRC and in a blink there was open water all along that coast.

I don't trust Summer CFSv2 predictions within the Arctic Ocean. When, how and how fast the ice starts to retreat is unpredictable and strongly dependent on weather locally, that much I learned. : - )


Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 13, 2016, 08:49:29 AM
seaicesailor - while I like the screen captures, what's the link to the site you are using?

I'm slightly surprised that you, of all people, need to ask that question! Using Jing just for once, and starting from my previous link:

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 13, 2016, 08:50:22 AM
Starting from my previous link:
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 13, 2016, 09:57:00 AM
seaicesailor - while I like the screen captures, what's the link to the site you are using?

I'm slightly surprised that you, of all people, need to ask that question! Using Jing just for once, and starting from my previous link:
<snerk>
I'm far from omniscient, Jim.  I succeed mostly by way of dogged persistence rather than brilliancy. 

I flailed around for a while trying to sort it, and rather than flail further, decided to actually *ask* and get a quick answer.

Thanks for the further explanation.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 13, 2016, 12:14:08 PM
Thx for reminding us that source Jim. And here is the comparison of the last three years. Still a lot of snow to fall before May, but worth noting the lack of snow depth at Beaufort (makes sense given the amount of recently frozen thin ice there) and the reduced numbers in CAB (better compare the years than trust the model 100% I assume). In 2014 snow protected the Arctic ice well, you may remember.

Beaufort looks so vulnerable this time. ESS better protected as in 2014

seaicesailor - while I like the screen captures, what's the link to the site you are using?

Looking at the images, I'm also reflecting on how they match up to the corresponding melt season.  The low cover over the Laptev comes to mind, and how we've seen the "Laptev Bite" play out over the last few seasons.

Yes there were webpages showing the same source. I googled around.

Laptev ice in 2015 was so thin and clean of snow because it was continuously generared during Winter by a strong sustained Polar drift. Just as Beaufort looks now thin and devoid of snow. But turned out last year that Laptev ice did not open up until very late compared to 2014. Who knows.

What really looks screwed without solution is Kara, looking back to the maps. Barentz too, but a change to North winds for a while can bring Svalbard ice back to it.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on March 13, 2016, 12:35:28 PM
One place where deeper snow cover in 2014 compared to 2015 correlates with later melt is the coast of eastern Siberia. But I know this is just one place and could have other reasons, weather most of all. Snow cover on adjoining land does of course have a big influence on warming of air which can melt that snow, so all else being equal one would expect this correlation.
The picture as a whole shows that the inflows of air masses from the south which we have seen during the winter has not increased snow cover as a whole, something I have been wondering about. Thank you Jim for that information.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Espen on March 13, 2016, 07:57:43 PM
Sea Ice breakup is well underway and ahead of recent years in Wandel Sea and Fram Strait:
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Michael Hauber on March 13, 2016, 11:20:11 PM
Snow might protect the ice from melting, but it also insulates the ice during winter and results in slower freezing.  Has anyone done any good analysis on which factor is more important? Do thickness measures include or exclude snow?  Can the sensors tell between thickly packed snow and ice?  What about when snow gets hit by water and then refreezes into a mix of snow and ocean ice?  Or does that not happen enough to matter?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 14, 2016, 07:07:51 AM
Snow might protect the ice from melting, but it also insulates the ice during winter and results in slower freezing.  Has anyone done any good analysis on which factor is more important? Do thickness measures include or exclude snow?  Can the sensors tell between thickly packed snow and ice?  What about when snow gets hit by water and then refreezes into a mix of snow and ocean ice?  Or does that not happen enough to matter?
My sense is... and what I think I've seen...  snow works out to be close to a zero sum effect.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 14, 2016, 07:52:51 AM
OK, compare and contrast.
2015-04-19 Beaufort with 2016-03-13 Beaufort.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: werther on March 14, 2016, 09:40:17 PM
Thanks, JDAllen. Those pics enlighten my words below!

Sunlight has returned to the Arctic up to 690 km from the North Pole now.  As more than 90% of the surface of the Arctic Ocean is visible on MODIS now, it is possible to do a first assessment of the state of the ice.

The Chukchi Sea shows some interesting details. NE winds have driven the ice from the Alaskan coast. New ice formation is happening, but that cover looks very thin up to 160 km from the coast. In the Bering Strait, a sort of ice-arch has formed, further to the South in the Bering Sea there’s just shedded floes, no solid ice cover. The Arctic Basin boundary lies some 400 km to the North from Barrow and Wrangel Island. In that area, older ice floes are visible within the slightly darker mesh of first year ice. In the northwest, some broad leads rip through the ice.

The Beaufort Sea ice looks incredibly messy. More than a third of the surface consist of wrecking broad leads (up to 70 km wide), where new ice formation is happening. But this will remain very thin, I guess. The usual Mackenzie Polynia is visible and will form as open water as soon as first spring warmth arrives.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 15, 2016, 12:36:17 PM
Here's the shiny new Great White Con Svalbard Sea Ice Graphs Page:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/svalbard-sea-ice-graphs/ (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/svalbard-sea-ice-graphs/)

and here's our exploration of the current state of Svalbard sea ice:

Vanishing Svalbard Sea Ice (http://greatwhitecon.info/2016/03/vanishing-svalbard-sea-ice/)

Quote
Both sources reveal an unseasonable lack of solid sea ice around Svalbard. In fact an intrepid Northwest Passage navigator who didn’t mind the dark might well currently be able to circumnavigate Svalbard!

One handy map currently looks like this:
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: wili on March 15, 2016, 01:25:38 PM
More indications that this thread was started a bit...prematurely.

We have yet again a new high for the freeze season: 12.85966 m sq k for day 73, but still (barely) in record low territory for that date.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on March 15, 2016, 07:51:49 PM
More indications that this thread was started a bit...prematurely.

We have yet again a new high for the freeze season: 12.85966 m sq k for day 73, but still (barely) in record low territory for that date.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html)

Meanwhile, NSIDC extent tells a different story...
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: werther on March 15, 2016, 09:17:20 PM
Sunlight has returned to the Arctic up to 690 km from the North Pole now.  As more than 90% of the surface of the Arctic Ocean is visible on MODIS, it is possible to do a first assessment of the state of the ice.
This is my interpretation for the ESS and Laptev Seas (13 March).

First, two images, 100x100 km:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FDetail%2520East%2520Siberian%2520Sea%2520small_zps7hq9f9wb.jpg&hash=fbb3484c5366d703d655ea3a2bd528ac)

Around Ostrov Zhokhova, De long Islands

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FDetail%2520Laptev%2520Sea%2520small_zpsdzqg6jlt.jpg&hash=30087b3c84e3bb4212c8e56e9030c31b)

NE of Vilkitsky Strait in the Laptev Sea

The enormous 500K square km fast ice stretch in the East Siberian Sea looks great. But there’s detail, a bit like in the Beaufort Sea, in there too. White floes mingle with darker leads. To the North, heavy break-up and movement is visible around the De Long Islands. The stress stretches along the Arctic Basin boundary up to the Chukchi Sea, accentuated by numerous broad leads. At this stage, those still fill up with new ice.

The Laptev Sea shows some of the most worrying signs. The ice over there hasn’t thickened much during  winter for a couple of years now. In ’14 it was just 40 cm over a large part. It doesn’t look better now. Heavily shredded and run through with leads, it might melt out very rapidly in May and June. NE of Severnaya Zemlya 30 km broad windstress leads seem hardly to promote new ice formation. As noticed before, Vilkitsky Strait is largely run through with crunched floes.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: DavidR on March 15, 2016, 09:26:27 PM
More indications that this thread was started a bit...prematurely.

We have yet again a new high for the freeze season: 12.85966 m sq k for day 73, but still (barely) in record low territory for that date.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html)

Meanwhile, NSIDC extent tells a different story...
I  think we can safely assume that the melting season and the freezing season overlap by about a month so there should be no problem running the two  threads until the maximum has been accepted.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: werther on March 15, 2016, 10:09:12 PM
David, hi.
I think most of us are on this thread to assess the coming season from what is known/visible by now. Winter has had it's best time.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on March 16, 2016, 01:41:06 AM
A large scale dipole anomaly is taking shape with very long fetch winds between a strong ridge over the pacific side and a large PV anomaly over the Kara.

The biggest impact will be ice export out the from and ice export towards the Barents.

Thicker ice as seen on cryosat 2 will be jettisoned out the arctic between NNE Greenland and the pole.

Replaced with essentially thin and mostly snow free fyi.

On the positive side older ice will be slowly pushed towards the CAB and Beaufort sees from the East.

If this is a prelude to the May/June pattern it would be pretty awful.

The most effective ice killer is a sunny ridge over the Beaufort, Western CAB, chuchki, and ESS while the laptev, Nansen basin and Kara see ice exported towards the pole/Barents.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on March 16, 2016, 01:52:39 AM
That's pretty ugly.

75% of the arctic basin is around 1.5M or thinner.

Large areas barely over 1M. Well into the 73-77N range along the entire ring of the basin


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FE9wdJKv.jpg&hash=da710aa9a75148943417c6c96d7c731f)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: werther on March 16, 2016, 12:47:29 PM
Sunlight has returned to the Arctic up to 690 km from the North Pole now.  As more than 90% of the surface of the Arctic Ocean is visible on MODIS now, it is possible to do a first assessment of the state of the ice. This is about Kara and Barentsz Seas.

The Kara Sea looks bad enough, like the Laptev, but that’s been the case for a lot of years now. Nevertheless, the +8dC anomaly for all winter has left its mark in a almost 80K sq km of open water. There’s still new ice formation in leads and stress leads elsewhere and given the weather forecast, there might be some ice strengthening in the coming period.

The Barentsz Sea is essentially ice free. There’s some light, mobile ice cover in the Pechora Sea and around Frantsa Yosefa. Won’t last long.

And a look forward into the Arctic Basin in this sector (special thanks to Friv for introducing Cryosat Mar 16!):

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2F2016%252003%252015%2520r03c04%2520Cryosat%2520and%2520MODIS_zps3eralo91.jpg&hash=c64d53c6c6ab7829464373d862529904)

There´s a 220K mostly open water region North of Svalbard and Frantsa Yosefa. What is visible further to the North looks pretty broken up, just like ice in Wandel Sea North of Greenland. This region is what is producing low extent all winter. This is also where spectacular melt out might start spreading if weather conditions get ´bad´.
Cryosat confirms this; the ice looks almost predestined to melt out into the 85dg North circle, whatever weather this summer may bring!
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 16, 2016, 02:55:20 PM
Based solely on her "feminine" intuition Snow White has very publicly called the CT area maximum:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/709898232676147200

When Neven chooses to "sticky" this thread is of course entirely up to him  ;)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 16, 2016, 11:34:27 PM
Based solely on her "feminine" intuition Snow White has very publicly called the CT area maximum:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/709898232676147200

When Neven chooses to "sticky" this thread is of course entirely up to him  ;)

We goes to ASIB, ctrl-F 'Wipneus', then he tweets and goes to bed
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Espen on March 17, 2016, 07:10:04 PM
The break up of sea ice almost reached Île-de-France of Jøkelbugt and that is pretty early:
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 17, 2016, 08:14:49 PM
Holy crap!! Is ECMWF 12z run an ominous sign of the return of "RRR"? In any case, it looks like a massive warm and moisty air intrusion might invade the Arctic by Easter.

My impression for now is that the atmosphere is trying to move into a full -AO configuration but being delayed by the fading El Niño. Including a modified return of RRR. If this idea holds we might see a very bad season in either 2016, 2017 or both years.

//LMV
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on March 18, 2016, 04:26:17 AM
Holy crap!! Is ECMWF 12z run an ominous sign of the return of "RRR"? In any case, it looks like a massive warm and moisty air intrusion might invade the Arctic by Easter.

My impression for now is that the atmosphere is trying to move into a full -AO configuration but being delayed by the fading El Niño. Including a modified return of RRR. If this idea holds we might see a very bad season in either 2016, 2017 or both years.

//LMV

PNA Index models show a slight dip, nothing too lasting

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fprecip%2FCWlink%2Fpna%2Fpna.sprd2.gif&hash=0cffccd933c041e91e4d368106d60cb3)

The RRR is associated with a long-term very negative PNA index value

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fprecip%2FCWlink%2Fpna%2Fpna.timeseries.gif&hash=0110e80e7ddc570063527e18dc535167)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 19, 2016, 07:52:02 AM
A bit earlier, Wipneus took me to task pretty much telling me that I was wrong to assume heat from warm currents into the Barents/CAB were not causing significant melt in the Atlantic side of the Arctic.

With due meditation on the topic, I find myself having to agree with him.  I think I was underestimating the influence of heat being imported.

Now let's consider the SIE map from Bremen.

The Bering, Okhotsk and Barents are thrashed. I think that's a good descriptor.  We get some  good blasts of heat and 3-400K of SIA/SIE will just vanish.  And I think it will happen before June; possibly before May.

I think what's happening in the Barents will spill over rapidly to the Kara; almost none of that ice is thicker than 2 meters, and a whole bunch of it is less than 1.

If we end up with substantial melt ponds on the Pacific side (Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS...) there will be hell to pay.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 19, 2016, 10:04:16 AM
Jdallen: in about 48 hours or so ECMWF have a quite powerful cyclone to hammer Okhotsk. Should mean a decent loss of sea ice there. OTOH, northerly winds will be quite dominating in Berings Sea which might offset some of the SIE loss in Okhotsk.

//LMV
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 19, 2016, 11:14:40 AM
Jdallen: in about 48 hours or so ECMWF have a quite powerful cyclone to hammer Okhotsk. Should mean a decent loss of sea ice there. OTOH, northerly winds will be quite dominating in Berings Sea which might offset some of the SIE loss in Okhotsk.

//LMV

Doesn't seem the Bering ice is going to expand much anymore (not much ice left) and SSTs are not so cold as to maintain ice or refreeze. If so, will be little and temporary. The offset may come from Barentz looking at the drift maps. Wasn't 2013 or 2014 when there was no ice in Svalbard North shores in February and it came back in April to stay until the Summer was past? The sea temperature at Barentz is colder and can maintain ice frozen for months

PS To be strick, North of Svalbard is still the Arctic Ocean, not the Barentz sea, but I tend to include Svalbard on it wrongly. Regardless.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 19, 2016, 11:26:03 AM
Interestingly, the minimumtemperatures at Svalbard have been slightly below normal during the last two days after being much above normal for about 2½ months. See: http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html (http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html)

The anomalies in Berings Sea are much less pronounced than in Barentz Sea. I won't be surprised if the ice edge will be pushed south.

I think it was in 2014 as the sea ice was pushed south but I honestly don't remember.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 19, 2016, 11:39:57 AM
You can check the concentration maps (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps) on the ASIG, as I've recently updated them (and added back in 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2009).
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: epiphyte on March 19, 2016, 05:11:10 PM
You can check the concentration maps (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps) on the ASIG, as I've recently updated them (and added back in 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2009).

These are really interesting to look at - Many thanks for taking the trouble.

Probably should mention though that the comparisons for march all show the same date (March 18th) for 2016...


Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on March 19, 2016, 05:17:36 PM
Interestingly, the minimumtemperatures at Svalbard have been slightly below normal during the last two days after being much above normal for about 2½ months. See: http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html (http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html)

The anomalies in Berings Sea are much less pronounced than in Barentz Sea. I won't be surprised if the ice edge will be pushed south.

I think it was in 2014 as the sea ice was pushed south but I honestly don't remember.
this terra image from today https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%28hidden%29,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%28hidden%29,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_Brightness_Temp_Band31_Night%28hidden%29,MODIS_Terra_Brightness_Temp_Band31_Day%28hidden,palette=rainbow_1,min=220.5,max=280.6,squash%29,Reference_Labels%28hidden%29,Reference_Features%28hidden%29,Coastlines&t=2016-03-19&v=243919.62215679046,-916030.8769843376,1525967.6221567905,-297534.8769843376 (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%28hidden%29,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%28hidden%29,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_Brightness_Temp_Band31_Night%28hidden%29,MODIS_Terra_Brightness_Temp_Band31_Day%28hidden,palette=rainbow_1,min=220.5,max=280.6,squash%29,Reference_Labels%28hidden%29,Reference_Features%28hidden%29,Coastlines&t=2016-03-19&v=243919.62215679046,-916030.8769843376,1525967.6221567905,-297534.8769843376)
shows cold air from the ice blowing over warm water north of svalbard. There is some movement of the edge to the south but to bring ice near to svalbard would require a more sustained push and probably change in the ocean current there. Sea water there is at least 0 degC I think.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 19, 2016, 05:27:31 PM
These are really interesting to look at - Many thanks for taking the trouble.

Probably should mention though that the comparisons for march all show the same date (March 18th) for 2016...

Yes, the 2016 SIC map on every page is hotlinked to the daily updated UB SIC map. I add the images from the archive once the melting season is over. It's too much of a hassle to do that every 6 days, especially when most people will want to look forward and not back.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 20, 2016, 09:51:53 AM
Cracking event on the Siberian side of the Arctic due to a 1053 hPa monster (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg72059.html#msg72059) (see Wipneus animation in the comment above).
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 20, 2016, 11:03:57 AM
ECMWFs most recent run suggest that we'll see a pattern change by the end of March with more cyclonic domination. Interestingly, it seems like the Arctic also is cooling now.....  :o A little late IMO.

Okhotsk is down quite rapid these days.Question is how fast melting will be.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: plinius on March 20, 2016, 12:02:42 PM
You mean in anomalies, or in real temperature? In anomalies, it will definitely cool, but that is just because we won't see a lot of summer temperature variation as long as there is some ice left in the arctic...
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 20, 2016, 03:16:25 PM
An interesting paper has just become available for "discussion" at TCD:

The EUMETSAT sea ice climate record (http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2016-34/)

Quote
An Arctic and Antarctic sea ice area and extent dataset has been generated by EUMETSAT’s Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSISAF) using the record of American microwave radiometer data from Nimbus 7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave radiometer (SMMR) and the Defense Meteorological satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSMIS) satellite sensors. The dataset covers the period from 1978 to 2014 and updates and further developments are planned for the next phase of the project.

The sea ice climate dataset is available for download at (www.osisaf.org (http://www.osi-saf.org/)) including documentation.

I'm guessing that this is the documentation referred to, but I am open to persuasion!

http://www.osi-saf.org/biblio/docs/osisaf_cdop2_ss2_pum_sea-ice-conc-reproc_2_1.pdf (http://www.osi-saf.org/biblio/docs/osisaf_cdop2_ss2_pum_sea-ice-conc-reproc_2_1.pdf)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on March 20, 2016, 04:23:08 PM
Latest update with the NSIDC extent has resulted in a new extent high for 2016 using the 5 day rolling average.  The value to the 19th is 14,481,800km2, compared to the previous high of 14,477,600km2 set back on March 2nd.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 20, 2016, 05:02:30 PM
Cracking event on the Siberian side of the Arctic due to a 1053 hPa monster (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg72059.html#msg72059) (see Wipneus animation in the comment above).
Very dramatic, and in line with what we saw in the same region in 2015.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: epiphyte on March 20, 2016, 06:56:58 PM
An interesting paper has just become available for "discussion" at TCD:

The EUMETSAT sea ice climate record (http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2016-34/)

Quote
An Arctic and Antarctic sea ice area and extent dataset has been generated by EUMETSAT’s Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSISAF) using the record of American microwave radiometer data from Nimbus 7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave radiometer (SMMR) and the Defense Meteorological satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSMIS) satellite sensors. The dataset covers the period from 1978 to 2014 and updates and further developments are planned for the next phase of the project.

The sea ice climate dataset is available for download at (www.osisaf.org (http://www.osi-saf.org/)) including documentation.

I'm guessing that this is the documentation referred to, but I am open to persuasion!

http://www.osi-saf.org/biblio/docs/osisaf_cdop2_ss2_pum_sea-ice-conc-reproc_2_1.pdf (http://www.osi-saf.org/biblio/docs/osisaf_cdop2_ss2_pum_sea-ice-conc-reproc_2_1.pdf)

From the abstract:
Quote
A new algorithm has been developed to estimate the spatially and temporally varying sea ice concentration uncertainties. A comparison to sea ice charts from the Arctic and the Antarctic shows that ice concentrations are higher in the ice charts than estimated from the radiometer data at intermediate ice concentrations. The sea ice climate dataset is available for download at (www.osisaf.org (http://www.osisaf.org)) including documentation.

I.e: "Wherever there's not much ice, there's less than you think there is."

...which makes perfect sense given the nature of the sensors, and the fact that models are ill-equipped to cope with the more complex and uncertain physics in <100% concentration environments.

...Which in turn is one reason that I have always said that the year the ice all melts, it will take everyone who goes by the numbers by surprise, and it will all go at once.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Peter Ellis on March 20, 2016, 08:25:03 PM
No, it says the opposite - that the ice concentration in the sea ice charts (hand-compiled using multiple sources including direct observations and radar as well as microwave data) is generally higher that that estimated from microwave data alone.

This is nothing new - it's one of the main reasons MODIS shows more ice than the microwave imaging, for example.  Microwaves just aren't very good at picking up thin, sparse ice.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 21, 2016, 01:48:13 AM
If the preliminary CT area maximum holds it is significantly below all previous years in their record. Next lowest is 13.144 in 2011:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/02/the-2016-arctic-winter-sea-ice-puzzle/#comment-213940 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/02/the-2016-arctic-winter-sea-ice-puzzle/#comment-213940)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Treesong on March 21, 2016, 04:06:21 AM
Latest update with the NSIDC extent has resulted in a new extent high for 2016 using the 5 day rolling average.  The value to the 19th is 14,481,800km2, compared to the previous high of 14,477,600km2 set back on March 2nd.

I've asked this before, but...can we really know the sea ice extent to six significant figures?
What are the chances that this new high is really a new high? Since it's a rolling average I imagine the trend is more meaningful than daily values, but still.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: plinius on March 21, 2016, 09:53:44 AM
rather 5 figures that you need for that difference. Out of painful own experience - yes, thank them for providing so many significant digits, otherwise people using those data would have to fight with rounding artefacts. Also please note that BftV talks about a new maximum in the index, and not the sea ice itself, which makes his statement very accurate.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on March 21, 2016, 11:35:44 AM

I've asked this before, but...can we really know the sea ice extent to six significant figures?
What are the chances that this new high is really a new high? Since it's a rolling average I imagine the trend is more meaningful than daily values, but still.

I'm pretty sure the daily values come with an error range that would make the current and previous high statistically indistinguishable, but as far as keeping the record consistent, March 19th will be ranked (so far) as the 2016 extent maximum.
It's definitely possible that the 5 day average will continue to increase over the coming days too.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: DavidR on March 21, 2016, 12:58:27 PM
Latest update with the NSIDC extent has resulted in a new extent high for 2016 using the 5 day rolling average.  The value to the 19th is 14,481,800km2, compared to the previous high of 14,477,600km2 set back on March 2nd.

I've asked this before, but...can we really know the sea ice extent to six significant figures?
What are the chances that this new high is really a new high? Since it's a rolling average I imagine the trend is more meaningful than daily values, but still.

In the last week or so both NSIDC extent and Area have changed by over 170,000 sq Km^2 in a single day, that is over 7000 Km^2 in an hour.  Any figure given is merely a best guess and should be treated as such.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on March 21, 2016, 01:22:54 PM
Latest update with the NSIDC extent has resulted in a new extent high for 2016 using the 5 day rolling average.  The value to the 19th is 14,481,800km2, compared to the previous high of 14,477,600km2 set back on March 2nd.

I've asked this before, but...can we really know the sea ice extent to six significant figures?
What are the chances that this new high is really a new high? Since it's a rolling average I imagine the trend is more meaningful than daily values, but still.

What are the chances? About 50:50 if considering just 2 dates that are that close.

While we shouldn't expect accuracy, perhaps we shouldn't be too dismissive of relative values:

Can we use different measures:
NSIDC (daily)
2016,    02,  29,     14.557 (local max)
2016,    03,  19,     14.482

ADS/IJIS
29Feb 13.96 local maximum
19Mar 13.89

If they both find the same day as the maximum....
  If they both use same satellite data then that could easily be due to noise in satellite data that is not a result of level of ice. But if they are using different satellite data maybe reporting same day for max is indicative of that being the day the ice reached max?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Pettit on March 21, 2016, 01:31:56 PM
If the preliminary CT area maximum holds it is significantly below all previous years in their record. Next lowest is 13.144 in 2011:


Yes, indeed. Wrote about this a few days ago. 2016's max-to-date was 12.885 on Day 0.2000; that's 259k less than the 2011 max you mentioned. In order for this year to climb above that 2011 mark, area would have to somehow jump by roughly 500k over the next week or so.

That's not going to happen; the new 2016 record will stand.

On a similar note, it's unlikely, though not impossible, that area will grow enough in the next week or so to surpass the max-to-date of 12.885, meaning that it's likely, though not certain, that 2016 has passed its peak.

Bonus fact: 2016 SIA is, as of today, 1.035 million km2 below where 2012 was on this same date.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 21, 2016, 01:35:14 PM
They're both using passive microwave data from different satellite sensors. IJIS uses AMSR2, and the Sea Ice Index relies on DMSP and SSMIS. The Bootstrap algorithm is used for the former, the NASA Team algorithm is used for the latter.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 21, 2016, 01:40:46 PM
Yes, indeed. Wrote about this a few days ago. 2016's max-to-date was 12.885 on Day 0.2000; that's 259k less than the 2011 max you mentioned. In order for this year to climb above that 2011 mark, area would have to somehow jump by about 478k over the next week or so.

That's not going to happen; the new 2016 record will stand.

That being the case:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/02/the-2016-arctic-winter-sea-ice-puzzle/#comment-213943 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/02/the-2016-arctic-winter-sea-ice-puzzle/#comment-213943)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 21, 2016, 01:51:05 PM
One fluke could be enough to top IJIS' preliminary peak (just a 48K difference), although I'm not seeing it in the forecast. CT SIA is a done deal, unless Wipneus sees extraordinary things coming our way in his crystal ball.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on March 21, 2016, 02:08:04 PM
I don't claim to know a lot about this region, but just looking at the temperature of ice and land surface yesterday on worldview http://go.nasa.gov/1RctEMH (http://go.nasa.gov/1RctEMH) I would guess that a drop in area could be not far off in this region.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 21, 2016, 03:54:26 PM
I don't claim to know a lot about this region, but just looking at the temperature of ice and land surface yesterday on worldview http://go.nasa.gov/1RctEMH (http://go.nasa.gov/1RctEMH) I would guess that a drop in area could be not far off in this region.
Maybe.  I think a lot of what you are seeing is cloud tops, so I'm not sure it reflects what's actually going on at 2M or so.  Regardless, the ice in Okhotsk is very weak and thin, so when the right conditions arrive, it will vanish quickly.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 21, 2016, 04:06:30 PM
Yes, indeed. Wrote about this a few days ago. 2016's max-to-date was 12.885 on Day 0.2000; that's 259k less than the 2011 max you ... jump by about 478k...

That's not going to happen; the new 2016 record will stand.

That being the case:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/02/the-2016-arctic-winter-sea-ice-puzzle/#comment-213943 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/02/the-2016-arctic-winter-sea-ice-puzzle/#comment-213943)


'k, still linear. As it should be. By ghgs alone. During winters. 'k. Tamino split his temperature response function for el nino in two parts in his recent post. Delays are 2 months and 10 months. Thisproduces a bit better fit than the previous one. I think the longer period could be for extratropical marine resposnse. October- November temperatures should be interesting in this respect.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on March 21, 2016, 04:22:16 PM
jdallen, maybe you could use the link I provided and compare visible and IR image. These "cloudtops" you think I am seeing have oddly icefloe like shapes. Please consider the possibility that someone has thought about this before posting!
What I think it shows is exactly that the ice isn't very thick and warms quickly. But isn't it better to back this up with data than to just state an opinion?
What the weather will do I have no idea but I spotted this clear sky shot and thought it tells something about the situation at the surface. Lets see what happens next and whether this observation means anything.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: epiphyte on March 21, 2016, 04:58:11 PM
No, it says the opposite - that the ice concentration in the sea ice charts (hand-compiled using multiple sources including direct observations and radar as well as microwave data) is generally higher that that estimated from microwave data alone.

This is nothing new - it's one of the main reasons MODIS shows more ice than the microwave imaging, for example.  Microwaves just aren't very good at picking up thin, sparse ice.

Holy SnowBalls, Batman! You're right I completely misread it.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Laurent on March 21, 2016, 06:20:05 PM
Colorado Bob posted this video of a US nuclear Submarine piercing through the Arctic Ice : https://www.rt.com/viral/336319-nuclear-submarine-arctic-ice/ (https://www.rt.com/viral/336319-nuclear-submarine-arctic-ice/)

I do not see the ice as being meters thick. Eye balling it does seem to be at max 50 cm thick... What do you think ? They have chosen a very weak spot ?

(I have watched Mad Max recently for the first time, but it is so cute not at all the hard rock punkish thing I thought it was... ;))
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on March 21, 2016, 07:43:06 PM
Colorado Bob posted this video of a US nuclear Submarine piercing through the Arctic Ice : https://www.rt.com/viral/336319-nuclear-submarine-arctic-ice/ (https://www.rt.com/viral/336319-nuclear-submarine-arctic-ice/)

I do not see the ice as being meters thick. Eye balling it does seem to be at max 50 cm thick... What do you think ? They have chosen a very weak spot ?

(I have watched Mad Max recently for the first time, but it is so cute not at all the hard rock punkish thing I thought it was... ;))

They use a sub-ice sonar to locate thin areas of ice to breach.  The thinnest that they can find.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 21, 2016, 07:47:08 PM
jdallen, maybe you could use the link I provided and compare visible and IR image. These "cloudtops" you think I am seeing have oddly icefloe like shapes. Please consider the possibility that someone has thought about this before posting!
What I think it shows is exactly that the ice isn't very thick and warms quickly. But isn't it better to back this up with data than to just state an opinion?
What the weather will do I have no idea but I spotted this clear sky shot and thought it tells something about the situation at the surface. Lets see what happens next and whether this observation means anything.
Sorry, AndreasT - I did use the link and spent quite some time tinkering with various settings in Worldview to get a sense of it.   I just came to a different conclusion, that's all.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: NeilT on March 21, 2016, 09:49:42 PM
Is it not the case that if the CT area continues to fall and the NSIDC extent continues to rise, that the same, or less, ice is simply being distributed over a larger area of sea.

This does not, to my mind, really give much weight to the fact that NSIDC didn't create a new record.  Just that the ice is more mobile than it used to be.

Or did I get that wrong?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Stephen on March 22, 2016, 09:45:04 AM
As an amateur, I can only say that it's kind of freaky watching how closely the 2016 peak season is following the 2015 season.  An early March bump, then a sharp decline that has us all fooled, then a late season steady climb.

Maybe the spirit of Viddaloo is haunting the ice pack?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: 6roucho on March 22, 2016, 03:57:53 PM
I think some of us are still fooled. This doesn't look very 2015-ish to me.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: epiphyte on March 22, 2016, 04:57:48 PM
Colorado Bob posted this video of a US nuclear Submarine piercing through the Arctic Ice : https://www.rt.com/viral/336319-nuclear-submarine-arctic-ice/ (https://www.rt.com/viral/336319-nuclear-submarine-arctic-ice/)

I do not see the ice as being meters thick. Eye balling it does seem to be at max 50 cm thick... What do you think ? They have chosen a very weak spot ?

(I have watched Mad Max recently for the first time, but it is so cute not at all the hard rock punkish thing I thought it was... ;))

They use a sub-ice sonar to locate thin areas of ice to breach.  The thinnest that they can find.

It does look pretty thin - but the technique used to break through looks as though it would probably work just fine on considerably thicker ice... Notice how he's rising straight upwards (i.e. with zero forward motion), trimmed up at the bow so that the initial breakthrough force is straight up and down, concentrated at two points in sequence (first the sail, then the bow). Judging by how far the bow comes out of the water he probably has more than a few truckloads of positive buoyancy pushing straight up on a very small area.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 22, 2016, 10:30:50 PM
Was I too early to unsticky the freezing season thread and sticky this thread? Both JAXA SIE and CT SIA can top their preliminary peaks tomorrow. I didn't know I could jinx it this way too.  ;D 8)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: charles_oil on March 22, 2016, 11:33:42 PM
I think we are all waiting with bated breath to see the start of a plummeting ice extent.  It feels like watching a slow motion train wreck.... thin ice, multiyear ready to escape, loud cracks, naked Svalbard & today looks like a full moon so next the remaining glaciers will crack !  If it (the max)hangs on a little longer - great.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: epiphyte on March 23, 2016, 01:51:58 AM
Was I too early to unsticky the freezing season thread and sticky this thread? Both JAXA SIE and CT SIA can top their preliminary peaks tomorrow. I didn't know I could jinx it this way too.  ;D 8)

Oh there's melting going on, alright. (look at the ice edge nw of Svalbard - it's advancing southward, but also melting at the edges).

...But on the whole it seems that there's maybe still more freezing than melting ;)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Pettit on March 23, 2016, 01:39:12 PM
Was I too early to unsticky the freezing season thread and sticky this thread? Both JAXA SIE and CT SIA can top their preliminary peaks tomorrow. I didn't know I could jinx it this way too.  ;D 8)
JAXA extent could easily surpass its max-to-date of, as it's currently just 16k below it. But my guess is that CT area's max-to-date is safe; even with Wipneus's expected 80k+ increase tomorrow, it'll still be nearly 90k below the Day 0.2000 reading. Then again, 2012 managed to add more ice this week on its way to the latest maximum on record. If 2016 reaches a new peak in the next several days, it'll come in as the second latest. Normal distribution:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FQyuJO6P.png&hash=31811017997ffe54c3a50296cb1425e1)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on March 23, 2016, 01:54:24 PM
the less ice there at this time of the year, means the more retreated to the north the ice edge is, the later spring will reach the edge and the higher the chance for partial refreezes. what we see now is that currently the edge advances on the atlantic side and retreats in the okhotsk while 10 days ago it was vice versa. the later in winter the less the chance that the cold will persist on a certain latitude around the entire globe but still it can happen that while one part of the arcitc just started refreezing a bit while the other just ended refreezing there is an overlap of a day or two which can produce short lived peaks while the general possibility of refreezing due to higher latitude average ice edges remains. hence the record years tending to peak later IMO

Edit: i'm neither a scientist nor an native english speaker hence be tolerant as to my wording please  ;)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on March 23, 2016, 02:48:44 PM
NSIDC  14.575 for 21 Mar is higher than 14.557 of 29 Feb
5Day average of 14.487 is also new peak (but only 2 days later than last peak)

92, 97, 99 2003 and 2010 had later 5 day peaks. So would have to continue upwards quite a bit longer to become record or second latest peak for extent.

IIRC the area minimum is generally a little before the extent minimum because northern areas getting increased ice coverage matters for area but not for extent.  Melting presumably tends to start at the edges rather than freezing starting in the middle. So I am not sure there is much difference or reason for a difference in the date or variability of that date in maximum between area and extent.

Perhaps just a matter of chance that we are near a very late area maximum but further from a very late extent maximum?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: pauldry600 on March 23, 2016, 03:23:23 PM
Im quite amazed at how quickly the melted ice can refreeze and appear once again.

Think the Arctic is just volatile this year,

while melt will be interesting I wouldnt be surprised to see the min extent in September just a smidgeon below what it was last year.

Looking on a worldwide basis Europe is a lot colder this year especially Spain and Med so there may be no roaster of a Summer just normal weather.

Still this is more in hope than expectation
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Archimid on March 23, 2016, 05:27:16 PM
 I am afraid that this many consecutive late freezes is an ominous sign.

https://www.quantamagazine.org/20151117-natures-critical-warning-system/ (https://www.quantamagazine.org/20151117-natures-critical-warning-system/)

Quote
The signal, a phenomenon called “critical slowing down,” is a lengthening of the time that a system takes to recover from small disturbances, such as a disease that reduces the minnow population, in the vicinity of a critical transition. It occurs because a system’s internal stabilizing forces — whatever they might be — become weaker near the point at which they suddenly propel the system toward a different state.



Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 23, 2016, 09:50:17 PM
the less ice there at this time of the year, means the more retreated to the north the ice edge is, the later spring will reach the edge and the higher the chance for partial refreezes. what we see now is that currently the edge advances on the atlantic side and retreats in the okhotsk while 10 days ago it was vice versa. the later in winter the less the chance that the cold will persist on a certain latitude around the entire globe but still it can happen that while one part of the arcitc just started refreezing a bit while the other just ended refreezing there is an overlap of a day or two which can produce short lived peaks while the general possibility of refreezing due to higher latitude average ice edges remains. hence the record years tending to peak later IMO

Edit: i'm neither a scientist nor an native english speaker hence be tolerant as to my wording please  ;)

That has a lot to do with the plateau hypothesis
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1211.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1211.0.html)

As NH gets warmer, freezing progressess less staying in higher latitudes in average (this year was the turn of the Atlantic side, last year the Pacific). Extent "virtually" peaks earlier, in February, but then there is a period where ice edge retreats and advances in different seas out of Arctic ocean properly speaking. So extent says in a nearly steady value. Geoghaphical constraints also avoid that extent starts to drop seriously until April (my opinion).
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on March 23, 2016, 10:18:43 PM
that's well explained what i meant to express in layman's terms, thanks for the complementary support   ;)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on March 24, 2016, 01:55:39 PM
the less ice there at this time of the year, means the more retreated to the north the ice edge is, the later spring will reach the edge and the higher the chance for partial refreezes.

This has been discussed. There seems little if any evidence for it.

Had another go, and this seems to indicate peak day is if anything getting earlier with lower extent.

Obviously weather can cause peaks and troughs so to minimise the effect I used 31 day average NSIDC extent.

The day seems if anything to be getting later over time particularly since 2007 (but with 2015 looking very oddly early).
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on March 24, 2016, 02:00:33 PM
Try again with graph over time.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on March 24, 2016, 02:12:32 PM
Not sure there is any relationship - perhaps what we see is just noise. But speculating a bit, maybe I can suggest:

Maybe lower extent does mean later maximum other things being equal as the post 2007 jump indicates but there is also something acting in other direction. Probably too early for snow cover over land disappearing leading to earlier max. Perhaps just higher GHG levels over time mean the ice extent line can be held in check with a slightly lower sun angle.

Something like this would then mean over long periods the two effects mainly cancel out possible leaving a small residual effect possibly in direction of earlier minimum with time/CO2.

However, year to year, if there is a large difference in extent then you tend to get a later maximum with lower extent.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on March 24, 2016, 03:55:12 PM
However, year to year, if there is a large difference in extent then you tend to get a later maximum with lower extent.

No, that doesn't work. For consecutive years, there seems a stronger relationship that higher maximum is associated with later maximum.

I am lost trying to explain that. Any ideas anyone?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on March 24, 2016, 04:16:56 PM
perhaps we need a hypothetical extreme example to explain:

assuming the pole were ice-free in march, until when do you think could even larger re-freeze occur, i say may, even june would be possible. on the other hand if the ice edge were very far south in march what chance do you see that significant re-freeze could occour in june, may or even april, close to zero chance IMO.

so now please don't argue that it cannot be ice-free in march and seas around iceland cannot be frozen in march as well. it's just the extremes to illustrate the logics and then there "is" evidence just watch all the recent years with relatively late re-freezes before a steep drop. and we were not explicitely talking abou the max but about the latest ups in ice extent, re-freezes on significant scale very late in the season, it does not matter in this context whether the re-freeze will lead to new highs like in 2012 or not like last year. of course thickness has an impact as well, hence we could agree to replace the term extent to a certain degree with volume, but only if that volume is not boosted by extreme volumes in few places like the canadian archipelago. IMO it's absolutely logical and if you can't see this now we gonna talk again in 5-10 years when this and last years pattern became more regular and probably closer to the extreme i mentioned above ( only closer, of coure there will be always ice in winter for the coming milleniums for sure)

EDIT: since the pattern is relatively new and things are ever changing very rapidly of course no-one is able to come up with evidence gathered over decades like extent and area development, which is why i refer to the logic  and used those extrem examples, quasi as an eye opener.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on March 24, 2016, 05:03:03 PM
So far we have postulated effects that:

1. Northern location for ice edge means it is later for sun to reach adequate angle to stop expansion so causing later maximum.
2. GHG levels over time cause earlier maximum.
and magnamentis extremes consideration which seems to me to boil down to
3. Extent higher than trend causes early maximum.

On average extent will be on trend, so that can't explain trends but could be useful for explaining year to year variation. This says that of 2 consecutive years if one has higher extent the maximum day will tend to be earlier as you tend to get reversion towards trend. However the last scatter plot seems to show just the opposite.

On trends

There is a possibly a slight trend towards later maximum. This agrees with effect 1 but disagrees with effect 2.
It can't be just effect 1 as this would be seen perhaps more strongly in year to year data but the year to year data disagrees.

There is negligible trend possibly later maximum with higher extent. This disagrees with 1.
A combination of effects 1 and 2 could explain trends, but the consecutive years again show opposite of what you expect from those two effects.


Seems there either must be more effects in operation and/or I am trying to explain random noise and/or I am completely miscalculating/misinterpreting what I see.

Still lost.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 24, 2016, 11:12:23 PM
However, year to year, if there is a large difference in extent then you tend to get a later maximum with lower extent.

No, that doesn't work. For consecutive years, there seems a stronger relationship that higher maximum is associated with later maximum.

I am lost trying to explain that. Any ideas anyone?

Given the increasing positive temperature anomalies in the Arctic winter, couldn't this simply be evidence of the shortening of the freeze season?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on March 24, 2016, 11:34:12 PM

Given the increasing positive temperature anomalies in the Arctic winter, couldn't this simply be evidence of the shortening of the freeze season?

That is effectively the same as postulated second effect (GHG levels over time cause earlier maximum).

That would show up as a trend towards earlier maximums but there is a slight (ie not at all significant) trend towards later maximums. Of course it might be there but outweighed by something else.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on March 24, 2016, 11:54:56 PM
Perhaps it is the simple: weather dominates:

If cold near time when maximum should occur, then extent tends to go above trend and you also tend to have a late maximum. If warm near time of maximum, extent tends to go below average and you also tend to get an early maximum.

Over a long time period there is very little trend as observed. If you look at consecutive years then you get a strong effect of high extent goes with late maximums.

This does seem likely to dominate over any other effects, and seems to adequately explain the change in consecutive year effect.

It shouldn't have a large effect over long periods of time and leaves effects 1 and 2 competing to leave little trend.

Not sure there is much evidence to support these effects actually being the major effects rather than them being made up in order to try to fit the facts.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: slow wing on March 25, 2016, 12:23:07 AM
Agree with crandles that weather will have a large effect on date of maximum sea ice area.

If looking for a trend over the years, then I would suggest doing a fit each year to a several week interval around the mean maximum date and then using that maximum determined by the fit for each year. The fit could be to e.g. the top of a sine wave, or a quadratic. That would be more robust and remove some of the weather noise.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: plinius on March 25, 2016, 07:49:25 PM
Agree with crandles that weather will have a large effect on date of maximum sea ice area.

If looking for a trend over the years, then I would suggest doing a fit each year to a several week interval around the mean maximum date and then using that maximum determined by the fit for each year. The fit could be to e.g. the top of a sine wave, or a quadratic. That would be more robust and remove some of the weather noise.

That is not more robust, but limiting your functional shape with rather unpredictable consequences. I would advise strongly against that.

@crandles: Have you possibly attempted to exclude the Ochotsk? Additionally it might be worthwhile to try to fit simultaneously the time trends in both variables and the correlation term. Should give a bit of a better guidance for that.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on March 25, 2016, 09:11:33 PM
Agree with crandles that weather will have a large effect on date of maximum sea ice area.

If looking for a trend over the years, then I would suggest doing a fit each year to a several week interval around the mean maximum date and then using that maximum determined by the fit for each year. The fit could be to e.g. the top of a sine wave, or a quadratic. That would be more robust and remove some of the weather noise.

That is not more robust, but limiting your functional shape with rather unpredictable consequences. I would advise strongly against that.

I thought it might help if the weather changes frequently between warm/melt inducing and cold/freeze extending conditions frequently. However I suspect the 31 day average deals with that adequately enough and the remaining problem is if it is warm or cool for a large part of the 31 day period. I doubt fitting to a sine wave shape helps against this remaining problem. That is just a gut reaction - doing it would help remove the doubt.


Quote
@crandles: Have you possibly attempted to exclude the Ochotsk? Additionally it might be worthwhile to try to fit simultaneously the time trends in both variables and the correlation term. Should give a bit of a better guidance for that.

I haven't tried to exclude Ochotsk. I guess that would reduce some of the variability.

Not sure if you are suggesting a multiple linear regression fit (of max date using time and extent) or something else. I could see if that gives a lower standard error than using just time or just extent.
Would suspect the noise would be such that any reduction would be tiny. Guess I won't know unless I try these suggestions.

So thanks for suggestions and sorry if I take a long time or fail to get around to them.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: slow wing on March 26, 2016, 04:09:48 AM
Thanks for replies.

Yep, taking a 31 day average would be another way of reducing year-to-year noise.


Concerning whether to remove Sea of Ochotsk, that depends on your actual motivation in studying this.

Are you looking for anything around peak ice area with a statistically significant non-zero trend through the years? If so then ice coverage at Ochotsk could be part of your signal.

Are you instead looking for a predictor of Arctic sea ice coverage at minimum? If so then I agree Ochotsk should be removed.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 26, 2016, 01:30:25 PM
Another way to put these interesting ideas:
- In a warmer Earth, ice extent growth ceases earlier: the loss of heat during the Winter night is balanced at higher latitudes by the greenhouse-trapped heat that is convected from lower latitudes.
- However, melting of sea ice:
 1. Hysteretic behavior: it requires more temperature to start surface melting than what it needed for freezing, it is fresher than when it froze. And it needs time for convecting heat from atmosphere to ocean for bottom melting.
2. Need of sunlight for direct heat, which comes always at the same time every year
3. Geographical/geometric aspect that edge retreat at outer seas means much less extent loss rate than when it retreats within the Arctic Ocean proper.

The last three convince me to think that extent curve flattens and slowly merges with previous years curves in April after a two month plateau.

Problably this is still uncharted, but to me it makes quite some sense. Unsupported by data? Absolutely : -)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on March 26, 2016, 02:16:00 PM
Not sure I am following what you wrote correctly.

Quote
In a warmer Earth, ice extent growth ceases earlier
Yes I think I get that and is the same as saying higher GHG levels can compensate for a slightly lower sun angle so the expansion of ice extent stops earlier.

Quote
the loss of heat during the Winter night is balanced at higher latitudes by the greenhouse-trapped heat that is convected from lower latitudes.

Higher GHG level reduce rate of heat being lost to space. There is also wind transported heat from lower latitudes. If the lower latitudes are getting warmer then more heat may be transported, but winds being more zonal or meridonal might play a bigger role but that quickly gets complex.

These reasons suggest lower and earlier peak, and I am not disagreeing with this.

Quote
1. Hysteretic behavior: it requires more temperature to start surface melting than what it needed for freezing, it is fresher than when it froze.

Is this changing from year to year? If so, why? If not, I am not sure how it affects things.

Quote
And it needs time for convecting heat from atmosphere to ocean for bottom melting.
Yes but it takes so much time before that starts, I don't really see it affecting timing of maximum.

Quote
2. Need of sunlight for direct heat, which comes always at the same time every year

Same time for same place, yes. However if extent is lower so edge is further north then it will be later.

Quote
3. Geographical/geometric aspect that edge retreat at outer seas means much less extent loss rate than when it retreats within the Arctic Ocean proper.

Not sure I am getting this at all. If lower extent means there is less ice outside the Arctic ocean proper then perhaps you get a swift reduction of this smaller amount of ice but then the ice loss stalls before it can get going within Arctic Ocean proper?

I guess I can see that as a possibility with Okhotz and Bering. But there is a much wider ocean/ice boundary for Barents, Kara. The shape of the extent graphs seems to me to typically continuing to accelerate the ice loss rather than showing a stall at a particular level.

Quote
The last three convince me to think that extent curve flattens and slowly merges with previous years curves in April after a two month plateau.

Not sure how you arrive at this. There seems an argument for an earlier peak and one for a later peak. Does this drive a longer more level top of the curve? Or is it more a case of determining whether the later peak or earlier peak is the stronger effect? I suggest that the data show that for a big change in extent level like happened after 2007 the later peak wins but without a significant change in extent an earlier peak tends to win. So the peak is mainly moving to a lower level with little change in date of peak.

Perhaps there are arguments for a longer flatter peak, but I am not seeing them in what you have written, but perhaps that is just me failing to understand the reasoning you labelled as '3'.

Minimums are moving downward faster than maximums. Doesn't that tend to suggest a lower left shoulder rather than longer flatter peak?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: oren on March 27, 2016, 07:11:08 AM
seaicesailor - my intuition goes along with yours, though in less scientific terms.
I feel like there is the freezing season, the melting season, and the nothing/plateau season in between. Cold is not enough to produce lasting freezing in the marginal areas, heat and sunlight are not enough to produce significant melting, so it goes back and forth for a while.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 27, 2016, 06:27:27 PM
As the intrepid Russians build ice camp Barneo 2016 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1505.0.html) the intrepid Americans have been forced to abandon Ice Camp Sargo in a hurry:

http://www.navytimes.com/story/military/2016/03/25/ice-ex-ends-abruptly-cracks-in-the-ice/82248404/ (http://www.navytimes.com/story/military/2016/03/25/ice-ex-ends-abruptly-cracks-in-the-ice/82248404/)

Quote
A crack through the Navy's Arctic ice camp forced submariners and researchers to break camp in a hurry Thursday.

More than 40 international researchers and personnel were evacuated by aircraft back to the U.S. after the crack was discovered, bringing the Navy's biennial ice station to a premature close, according to two officials familiar with the exercise. The operation, which began in early March, was slated to run another week.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.gannett-cdn.com%2F-mm-%2Ff5165edfa19bcf273643df7b3770f5690bca06dd%2Fr%3Dx404%26amp%3Bc%3D534x401%2Fhttp%2Fcdn.tegna-tv.com%2F-mm-%2F12cfb05ab2b7c9417e0da1a67f5cb2c76975d74a%2Fc%3D549-0-4911-3280%2Flocal%2F-%2Fmedia%2F2016%2F03%2F25%2FGGM%2FMilitaryTimes%2F635944960699867168-NAV-ICEX-2016-1.JPG&hash=da7f5a989a18484bb568b2c809aebac7)

There's also video of the USS Hartford surfacing near Ice Camp Sargo:

http://youtu.be/PSE9Zjh364M (http://youtu.be/PSE9Zjh364M)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Laurent on March 27, 2016, 07:40:47 PM
That's because Russians know how to swim... hum, hum.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on March 27, 2016, 08:19:20 PM
I'll call the 5 day NSIDC max as March 24th, at 14.52 million km2.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 28, 2016, 01:15:56 AM
Not sure I am following what you wrote correct ...

Hi Crandles, thanks for your answers. I am short of time for a proper response but suffice to say I agree on many of the points you make particularly for debunking my point 1 and 2 but there are other comments Id argue. One thing, I intended to say that curve flattens earlier (not that the max is strickly in Freruary but the chances grow)  and stays around similar values until early April (not that the max occurs in April either) just as Oren implies too. Anyway the exact date is relevant but not so important.

One thing though related to my point 3:  you probably wondered why extent curves collapse so closely about May? No matter how thin ice comes out of winter, no matter how low the extent can fall in September, the spread of extents during this month is pretty small. Maybe there is an answer to this that I dont know, but my first bet would be that outer seas getting depleted of ice while the main ice retrat still on the brew. But I give you the extent already is falling considerably because Hudson, Baffin come later, then Kara and possibly Chukchi and Beaufort are already opening up (Barents is more trecharous AFAIK).
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 28, 2016, 10:08:09 AM
I've finally found the energy and motivation to write the 2015/2016 Winter analysis (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/03/20152016-winter-analysis.html), a synthesis of the many things discussed over here on the ASIF.

Conclusion: Pacific side looks weak, more ice on the Atlantic side, ideally positioned for Fram Strait export.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 28, 2016, 11:08:52 AM
Fair to say that the melting season really have started. Last couple ofdayshave seen adropof about 130K. St Lawrence will most likely begone with the wind in 1-2 weeks or so. PIOMAS for March will likely show an increase in the volume, especially on the Atlantic side.
If the AO continues to be positive for the next months I find it unlikely that we'll see a new SIE record minimumthis year. The last few years have seen a dominance of positive AO.I don't think this will change much this year but if the index should go negative during june-july it certainly should have a big impact on tje minimum. The dominance of +AO won't last forever.

Another thing to look at is how all that heat from El Nino will impact the sea ice.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Meirion on March 28, 2016, 11:29:24 AM
The AARI is definitely a brown sheep this time
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 28, 2016, 12:02:54 PM
The AARI is definitely a brown sheep this time

Indeed. A ram, even. Hadn't noticed it.  ;D
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: oren on March 28, 2016, 02:04:42 PM
The AARI is definitely a brown sheep this time

The similarity is striking. I almost thought you had it photoshopped.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: 6roucho on March 28, 2016, 03:12:20 PM
The AARI is definitely a brown sheep this time

Indeed. A ram, even. Hadn't noticed it.  ;D
A strangely womb-like scene. That ram lamb will never fit out the Fram.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on March 28, 2016, 06:47:16 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/alaska-pavlof-volcano-erupts_us_56f90f3ae4b0143a9b4890da?ir=Science&section=us_science&utm_hp_ref=science (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/alaska-pavlof-volcano-erupts_us_56f90f3ae4b0143a9b4890da?ir=Science&section=us_science&utm_hp_ref=science)

Alert Levels Raised As Alaska’s Pavlof Volcano Spews Ash 20,000 Feet Into The Sky
Smoke started spurting at 4:18 p.m. local time on Sunday.

Location with current 250 mb jet stream patterns:  http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-159.92,55.36,1024/loc=-162.006,55.473 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-159.92,55.36,1024/loc=-162.006,55.473)

Currently the strong pacific ridge is causing most of the upper troposphere aerosols to stay out of the Polar Atmospheric Cell, some small percentage (less than 25%) may migrate and impact the coming warming/melt season.  If the eruption continues for a long-period and/or if the upper wind pattern changes then this may create significant reductions in temperature/insolation and ice melt through the coming season.

1 week ahead projections show a much stronger likelihood of volcanic aerosols becoming captured by the Polar Atmospheric Cell.  http://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/04/02/1200Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-160.57,69.66,1024/loc=-161.609,55.660 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/04/02/1200Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-160.57,69.66,1024/loc=-161.609,55.660)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on March 28, 2016, 06:59:52 PM
Do you think that is 20000 feet above the summit at 8261 feet or to a height of 20000 feet above sea level?

Is 20000 feet above sea level insufficient to reach stratosphere and therefore not able to stay suspended for some time?

So effect could mainly be restricted to albedo and melting point of snow assuming it reaches Alaska or sea ice covered oceans?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 28, 2016, 07:19:05 PM
Do you think that is 20000 feet above the summit at 8261 feet or to a height of 20000 feet above sea level?

Is 20000 feet above sea level insufficient to reach stratosphere and therefore not able to stay suspended for some time?

So effect could mainly be restricted to albedo and melting point of snow assuming it reaches Alaska or sea ice covered oceans?
While 20,000 feet sound like a lot, it is measured from sea level, not the summit.

Also, any activity with a VEI of less than 4 is not going to produce enough aerosols to significant affect insulation, even if restricted to the Arctic cell.  I haven't checked numbers, but this explosion is probably only a "2", if that.  In summary - the coming wildfire season will have a far greater impact than this activity.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Steven on March 28, 2016, 08:54:14 PM
Do you think that is 20000 feet above the summit at 8261 feet or to a height of 20000 feet above sea level?

According to the latest update from Alaska Volcano Observatory, the Pavlof volcanic ash plume is now up to 37,000 feet above sea level:

Quote
Issued: Monday, March 28, 2016, 8:34 AM AKDT
...
Recent Observations:
[Volcanic cloud height] 37,000 ft ASL in SIGMET
[Other volcanic cloud information] Extending for 400 miles to the NE as of 07:00 UTC

https://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/search_reports_results.php?volcano=ak210 (https://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/search_reports_results.php?volcano=ak210)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on March 28, 2016, 10:20:00 PM
At this altitude the top of the ashcloud shows up as a cold streak in this nighttime IR image. Note some other volcanos standing out because of their altitude.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on March 28, 2016, 11:34:16 PM
Ash Cloud is not Sulfur Dioxide height.  Sulfur Dioxide will necessarily migrate higher. 

Tropopause height at 55'N latitude is (roughly) 28,500 feet.  This is a strato-volcanic event.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Csnavywx on March 29, 2016, 03:20:47 AM
Ash Cloud is not Sulfur Dioxide height.  Sulfur Dioxide will necessarily migrate higher. 

Tropopause height at 55'N latitude is (roughly) 28,500 feet.  This is a strato-volcanic event.

Normally. It isn't right now because of a massive omega block setting up over the region. Current Skew-Ts have the tropopause near 40kft. In fact, the 37-38.5k figures listed for plume height are probably accurate as the plume spreads under the tropopause. Jet config will also cause the ash cloud to curl around the block and spread east and then southeast as it heads inland. The block will be stable for at least several days.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 29, 2016, 06:31:06 AM
Ash Cloud is not Sulfur Dioxide height.  Sulfur Dioxide will necessarily migrate higher. 

Tropopause height at 55'N latitude is (roughly) 28,500 feet.  This is a strato-volcanic event.

Normally. It isn't right now because of a massive omega block setting up over the region. Current Skew-Ts have the tropopause near 40kft. In fact, the 37-38.5k figures listed for plume height are probably accurate as the plume spreads under the tropopause. Jet config will also cause the ash cloud to curl around the block and spread east and then southeast as it heads inland. The block will be stable for at least several days.

It is *still* not enough volume to make a significant difference.  It's most likely well under 1/10th KM3 of material, even including compressed volatiles like SO2 and CO2.  The silicate ash itself will be net neutral regarding atmospheric heating.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on March 29, 2016, 06:44:30 AM
[The block will be stable for at least several days.

Agreed, it looks like it will move off at 0000 UTC on April 1st.

However, It seems to me that the rate of SO2 emission has a much stronger potential to move across the tropopause.  Estimates of anthropogenic SO2 emissions moving into the stratosphere are (if I recall correctly) around 2-3% of total annual emissions.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 29, 2016, 08:25:50 AM
I really think we are making far too much of the potential SO2 emissions from this eruption.  Pinatubo, which had over 50 times the emission of ash and volatiles (probably more like 100-200 times...) than the current event at Pavlof, reduced global temperatures by only 0.6C .

The volcanoe's proximity to the arctic really won't make that big a difference either.

This eruption really isn't going to significantly alter what happens during the melt season.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on March 29, 2016, 05:50:02 PM
Pinatubo was a southern hemisphere tropical event.  The distribution of aerosols from volcanic activity on a globally averaged temperature impact was great but impacts to the arctic sea ice were minimum.  Volcanic activity in the arctic disproportionally affects that region but has little-or no effect on globally averaged temperatures, with the possible exception of a super-eruption from iceland which did both (due to scale of eruption). 

the 2011 iceland eruption lasted about 3 days and had an ash plume rise to 20k feet and drop to 10k feet elevations after 1 day. 

We can only wait and see from this point.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 29, 2016, 07:19:02 PM
Pinatubo was a southern hemisphere tropical event.  The distribution of aerosols from volcanic activity on a globally averaged temperature impact was great but impacts to the arctic sea ice were minimum.  Volcanic activity in the arctic disproportionally affects that region but has little-or no effect on globally averaged temperatures, with the possible exception of a super-eruption from iceland which did both (due to scale of eruption). 

the 2011 iceland eruption lasted about 3 days and had an ash plume rise to 20k feet and drop to 10k feet elevations after 1 day. 

We can only wait and see from this point.
Minor Kvetch - 15.14° N, 120.34° E  - Not southern hemisphere.

But yes, we need to wait and see.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 29, 2016, 08:12:07 PM
Sometimes I can't help myself.

I've dug up a list of all of the near-arctic - Kamchatka/Kuril, Aleutian, Alaskan and Icelandic - VEI 2+ eruptions in the last 20 years that I could find.  They are listed below.

I also want to point out early in 2015, there were a number of significant eruptions on the same scale as what we are seeing with Pavlof.  They do not appear to have significantly affected the melt season outcome.

I want to emphasize, I think it is easy to overestimate the impact of one of these volcanic events.  They are a lot more common than most people realize.  A VEI 4 (like Eyjafjallajokull in 2010 and Grimsvotn in 2011)  while enormously disruptive of our lives had negligible impact on the arctic melt or refreeze seasons.

http://www.kscnet.ru/ivs/kvert/index_eng.php (http://www.kscnet.ru/ivs/kvert/index_eng.php)
http://volcano.si.edu/ (http://volcano.si.edu/)

VolcanoDateVEI
Cleveland201312283
Veniaminof201306133
Pavlof201305133
Kanaga201210302
Cleveland201107202
Cleveland201009122
Cleveland201005302
Cleveland201005273
Cleveland200910022
Cleveland200906252
Redoubt200903153
Cleveland200901022
Kasatochi200808074
Omok200807124
Pavlof200708152
Cleveland200706172
Fourpeaked200609172
Cleveland200602063
Augustine200512093
Cleveland200503132
Veniaminof200501042
Shishaldin200402172
Veniaminof200402162
Cleveland200102023
Shishaldin199903133
Korovin199805083
Cleveland199705052
Omok199702113
Pavlof199607112
Shshaldin199512233
Klyuchevskoy20150828? (2+)
Karymsky20150119? (2+)
Klyuchevskoy20150101? (3+)
Zhupanovsky201406063
Zhupanovsky201310233
Chirinkotan20130611?
Tolbachhik20121127?
Alaid201210052
Kizimen201011113
Ekarma201006302
Bezymianny201005213
Bezymianny200912173
Klyuchevskoy200908012
Sarychev Peak200906114
Koryaksky200810082
Chikurachki200807292
Bezymianny200806113
Chikurachki200708192
Bezymianny200705103
Chikurachki200708192
Klyuchevskoy200702152
Bezymianny200604003
Bezymianny200511292
Ebeko200501292
Klyuchevskoy200501202
Chirinkotan200407202
Bezymianny200401143
Bezymianny200307263
Chikurachki200304172
Bezymianny200212242
Klyuchevskoy200204092
Chikurachki200201252
Bezymianny200112102
Karmsky200111153
Bezymianny200107233
Klyuchevskoy200007282
Bezymianny200007182
Mutnovsky200003172
Bezymianny200003142
Klyuchevskoy200002032
Sheveluch199907154
Sheveluch199902252
Klyuchevskoy199902052
Klyuchevskoy199807232
Sheveluch199805303
Bezymianny199712053
Bezymianny199705083
Sheveluch199703082
Alaid199612032
Klyuchevskoy199611142
Karymsky199601023
Akademia Nauk199601023
Bezymianny199509013
Grimsvotn201105214
Eyjafjallajokull201003204
Grimsvotn200411013
Hekla200002263
Grimsvotn199812183
Grimsvotn199609303
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 29, 2016, 11:36:44 PM
Nice work, jdallen.  :)

It's a small annual milestone, but the black hole on the LANCE-MODIS Arctic Mosaic (http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic) has disappeared, meaning that light has now reached the North Pole.

Somehow as I typed that, I thought it might be incorrect. Please correct, if so.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Flocke on March 30, 2016, 07:39:17 AM
The center of the sun should have passed the horizon at the north pole at 4:30 on 20th March.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Skier on March 30, 2016, 08:29:33 AM
Cryosphere Today shows an uptick in arctic ice extent.  Is now the highest of 2016 at 12.8993 on day 87.  So I guess ice is still growing?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 30, 2016, 08:41:34 AM
Thanks, Flocke! So, it took around 10 days for there to be enough light at the pole for the satellite sensor to 'see' the ice.

Cryosphere Today shows an uptick in arctic ice extent.  Is now the highest of 2016 at 12.8993 on day 87.  So I guess ice is still growing?

Welcome, Skier. Over on the 2016 sea ice area and extent data thread  (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1457.msg72595.html#msg72595)Wipneus wrote:

Quote
A big century drop almost certainly ends the march to the top, and starts the race to the bottom.

From today's NSIDC sea ice concentration data I calculate sea ice area, in the Cryosphere Today way. Here "day" is the day that CT normally publishes that data for the Northern Hemisphere, SH and global normally follow the next day. "CT-date" is approximately the date that CT uses.
When NSIDC does not revise its concentration data (they do occasionally), my values are normally accurate within a few k. Uncertainties are the exact algorithm for assumed concentration in the pole hole and some subtleties handling bad data.

day  CT-date       NH               SH                Global
Tue 2016.2356   +8.2 12.899085 +111.1  3.600973  +119.2 16.500058
Wed 2016.2384  +22.1 12.921232 +120.3  3.721245  +142.4 16.642477
Thu 2016.2411 -124.4 12.796836 +104.9  3.826190   -19.5 16.623026

It looks like CT SIA has peaked as well. Given the forecast and the time of year I don't expect it to bounce up 125K or more.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Entropy101 on March 30, 2016, 09:05:05 AM
The Pinatubo was a VEI 6 event. The current event is rated at VEI 3? Since the VEI scale is a base 10 scale, a VEI 6 is a 1000 times more powerfull than a VEI 3. So we will need 1000 eruptions of this scale or a 100 Eyjafjallajokulls to get to a Pinatubo size event and the effect on weather that was associated with that.

So as jdallen mentioned, this single eruption will not have a significant influence on the melt season.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on March 30, 2016, 10:09:22 AM
Vigorous snow melt underway over the W/NW region of North America.

Snow melt has also erupted over Western Russia reaching well into the interior.

This is earlier than 2014.  But even with 2015.

But earlier than 2010 and way earlier than 2009.

Expect the snow cover departure anomalies to slowly grow the next few weeks.

Also air running like 20C above normal is being brought into the Kara and Nansen basin.

Thanks to parents ssts being upwards of 3-5C above normal over large regions low level air masses are much warmer than historical norms as they reach the ice edge in that region.

The current flow is pumping warm air directly into the ice.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on March 30, 2016, 10:20:21 AM
Modus shows a full surface albedo drop over the Southern Kara showing surface melt starting.

Today's imagine is hopefully a but more clear.

The average temp is -18C over the Southern Kara right now.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FYr1DiAH.jpg&hash=0019b6a5fea2adb4d1489fea7571da5d)
 
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on March 30, 2016, 11:26:46 AM
That is insane.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FZoR1rcQ.jpg&hash=56e36c6d625e7ef5e8b117e0387bd9c8)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 30, 2016, 11:36:37 AM
You're right, Friv. NH snow cover has been going down again, lowest in the recent record:
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on March 30, 2016, 11:38:52 AM
Oh yeah.  The Kara surface melt on today's image has expanded.

Incredible
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: lanevn on March 30, 2016, 12:01:51 PM
Oh yeah.  The Kara surface melt on today's image has expanded.

Incredible

Can you share that image here?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Buddy on March 30, 2016, 01:16:13 PM
Groundhog day is coming....again ???

More warm Arctic air....with anomaly getting above the +5 C level is coming in about 6 or 7 days per CCI.

The same region which was wracked by warmer than normal weather in Jan and Feb:  The area from northern Greenland....across Svalbard and Franz Joseph....to the Barents and Kara Seas off the central/northern coast of Russia.

Not good.....




Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Laurent on March 30, 2016, 01:52:01 PM
North of Swalbard is even more impressive to me. http://go.nasa.gov/1UUgffY (http://go.nasa.gov/1UUgffY)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 30, 2016, 02:23:49 PM
Modus shows a full surface albedo drop over the Southern Kara showing surface melt starting.

Today's imagine is hopefully a but more clear.

The average temp is -18C over the Southern Kara right now.
Shouldn't this be caused by ice drift, strictly speaking? No signs of direct surface melting like bluer tonality. Refrozen parts detached from the coast have sharp boundary and don't look to be melting yet.
Albedo drop, yes.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww7320.nrlssc.navy.mil%2FhycomARC%2Fnavo%2Farcticicespddrfnowcast.gif&hash=0cda48db52e205f5a15acbce8f6e0387)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on March 30, 2016, 05:25:54 PM
I agree that ice edge retreat isn't always melting and the area shown by Laurent, east of Svalbard does look much more like the is ice being pushed back by wind. What is noteworthy is that 10 days ago with wind from the northeast the water opening in the lee of Franz Josef Land was freezing over, now with a southeasterly direction the water stays open without refreezing.

Directly north of Svalbard it is remarkable that the ice edge has retreated north with the general drift of the pack along and towards it. This seems to indicate sufficiently warm water to cause melt. Air temperatures measured on Svalbard only briefly reached up to 0 deg.

see the Svalbard thread I started.
Thanks Jim, that helps.
My comment is based on tracing floes (following the shape day by day on worldview is more convincing than the images below) and seeing ice between that floe and the edge disintegrate but it seems that it should spread out more if it would only break up without any melting.
interesting is also how the gaps opening between floes in the pack freeze over while the cold air doesn't manage to do that south of the edge (as far as I can see)

and south of Svalbard there is definitely melting ice (disappearing)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 30, 2016, 05:30:23 PM
Here's the thing regarding the Kara, Barents and near-Atlantic pack.  The significantly increased temperatures, and high temperature of the ice has a direct and measurable effect on the ice's compressive and tensile strength.  The abstract of this article citation has a summary good enough for my purposes.

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1023%2FA%3A1021134128038 (http://link.springer.com/article/10.1023%2FA%3A1021134128038)

Between -20C and -10C, the compressive strength of ice decreases by a factor of *5*.  So, even with similar volumes, we can be very confident that because of much higher ice temperature, not just earlier in the season, but before the *start* of the melt season the ice will begin disintegrating almost immediately when subjected to kinetic force.  I think the satellite imagery bears that out.

So, while I do think the temperatures are still far to low to support surface melting, the highly elevated temperatures, not just now, but over the entire season are responsible for what we see currently.  This isn't a result of current conditions; this is a result of the entire winter's conditions.  It is also why we really can't take much comfort in the lead ice appearing from refreezing.  Once there is no longer enough heat export to maintain it, it will rapidly turn not just into ice cubes, but slush.  It is a qualitative difference between 2016 and previous years, and a very negative one.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on March 30, 2016, 08:43:58 PM
Here's the thing regarding the Kara, Barents and near-Atlantic pack.  The significantly increased temperatures, and high temperature of the ice has a direct and measurable effect on the ice's compressive and tensile strength.  The abstract of this article citation has a summary good enough for my purposes.
Strange. I always assumed the energy compressing ice was released via formation of pressure ridges. Keeping a 1 to 2 m ice cap compressed over thousands of km2 seems a mighty unstable situation to me.
Likewise, fractures quickly release the stretching of ice.

Ice seems a pretty fragile matter being a crystal. Shouldn't we be talking about resiliency/fragility rather than structural strengths?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 30, 2016, 09:36:17 PM
Here's the thing regarding the Kara, Barents and near-Atlantic pack.  The significantly increased temperatures, and high temperature of the ice has a direct and measurable effect on the ice's compressive and tensile strength.  The abstract of this article citation has a summary good enough for my purposes.
Strange. I always assumed the energy compressing ice was released via formation of pressure ridges. Keeping a 1 to 2 m ice cap compressed over thousands of km2 seems a mighty unstable situation to me.
Likewise, fractures quickly release the stretching of ice.

Ice seems a pretty fragile matter being a crystal. Shouldn't we be talking about resiliency/fragility rather than structural strengths?
The lower strengths - tensile similarly declines by a factor of 4 over that span of temperature - reduce the ice's resistance on a larger scale.  It breaks into smaller pieces, and I would expect rather than forming durable ridges, shatters into melange - much as you see rock in fault zones ground into rubble.  That may be a good metaphor for it as well - rather than being shaped into new structures, it gets ground into rubble, which while it might get lightly welded by some freezing, doesn't gain the durability required to be persistent.

It means also that larger structures - think multi KM stretches of ice - cease to have the strength required to resist internal stresses, and break down more easily into smaller elements than the colder, stronger ice.

We've seen very good evidence supportive of this over the last few years of observation in these forums.

This year becomes even more exceptional, as for significant stretches of the main basin, as well as the peripheral seas, we've seen temperatures so high that the pack has never had sufficient opportunity to consolidate, thicken, cool and strengthen.  Buoy temperatures where we have them pretty consistently indicate temperatures considerably above -20C, which was not the case if you go back a few years.  I vaguely recall looking at temperature profiles in late spring ice, 3M thick, with core temperatures still close to -20C.

The breakage issue is important mechanically for a number of reasons I think.

1) water column turnover.  More movement of ice and direct access to sea surface by wind will increase Eckman pumping and transfer of heat from depth to the surface.

2) Lateral melt.  Melting profiles in different studies tend to suggest that lateral melting does not contribute significantly to volume loss until your flow size drops down under about 100M or so.  Once that threshold is reached, lateral melt contribution increases geometrically as the diameter decreases.  It's pure arithmetic - you decrease flow size, you increase the area available to attack by sea water.  You decrease the coherence of the ice - it's ability to maintain large expanses of unbroken ice - and you can see how the pack is evolving to a point where this will be an issue.

3) Mechanical attack by waves.  We don't need collisions or compression to cause ruptures.  With the ice significantly reduced in strength, where ever we see significant leads and fetch for wind, it will be far more prone to break up than in the past.  Further, it will do so much earlier in the season.

4) More sea surface open to insolation.  We won't need as much in the way of melt ponding to DEcrease albedo if, poorly consolidated ice ruptures, gets dispersed by movement, and opens sizeable leads.  That was part of what was at work in 2015.  I think it will only be worse this year, and may start earlier. *Has* started earlier.

Timing is important here.  In the past, the ice would weaken, and that you would see significant reduction in strength over large stretches of the Arctic - but not until fairly late in the season.  Even then, even in years like 2007, 2010, 2011 even 2012... you still had pretty sizeable stretches of ice which retained fairly high coherence.  That really hasn't been true since 2013 onwards, if you consider the megacracking events we've seen, and the near complete atomization of the pack such as we saw in 2013.  That year in particular, we were saved by nothing more than the whims of the weather and a cold freezing season.

We haven't had that for two years now.

I will be watching how the pack evolves over the early melt season with great interest.

[Edit:  One more thing occurs to me - higher temperatures means brinier ice.  It won't have had as much time or good conditions to "desalinate".  That should translate into lower melting temperatures, closer to the current SST.  Bottom melt will start sooner.]
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on March 30, 2016, 09:54:42 PM
Ice which undergoes compressive failure makes pressure ridges. Pressure ridges are a way of increasing average thickness of ice. The people setting up Barneo icecamp are reporting having to clear more ridges than in previous years to built their runway to land planes on the ice.
The interesting question isn't whether the ice is less strong than in other years, the interesting question is what consequences that has. If the ice compacts against the north coast of Greenland it stores volume where it keeps over the summer. If it moves into places where it gets too warm it increases volume loss.
Ice has always cracked, the stresses over such a large area are just too huge not to.
Increased melting around the periphery is giving it space into which the ice can spread. That spreading with the opening of water between floes in the summer is what could have a big effect. But it still needs time and the right weather conditions over a short melting season.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 30, 2016, 10:22:53 PM
Ice which undergoes compressive failure makes pressure ridges. Pressure ridges are a way of increasing average thickness of ice. The people setting up Barneo icecamp are reporting having to clear more ridges than in previous years to built their runway to land planes on the ice.
The interesting question isn't whether the ice is less strong than in other years, the interesting question is what consequences that has. If the ice compacts against the north coast of Greenland it stores volume where it keeps over the summer. If it moves into places where it gets too warm it increases volume loss.
Less consolidated ice, more cracking. I will add - I expect those individual ridges to be smaller as well - less force to compress the ice as the stress is distributed across more failures.  They will have more opportunity to relieve it through movement rather than physical deformation.  The same basic mechanism you'd see in strike/slip faults - which essentially is what the ridges are in miniature - fault zones in the ice.

Limited opportunity for this as most of the cracking will be well away from areas which are stable.


Ice has always cracked, the stresses over such a large area are just too huge not to.
Increased melting around the periphery is giving it space into which the ice can spread. That spreading with the opening of water between floes in the summer is what could have a big effect. But it still needs time and the right weather conditions over a short melting season.

Absolutely true - but what is different, is the cracking now takes place at a much smaller scale - instead of ruptures at 1 or 2KM, we see multiple ruptures across the same expanse.  The ice isn't as resistant.

Very much to the point and yes, weather will be key.  But even with favorable conditions for ice retention, we will still see a minimum of well under 5M KM2.  Average for the last few years takes us down under 4 Million.  Unfavorable flirts with 2012.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: werther on March 30, 2016, 10:40:25 PM
To illustrate the background this winter has produced as a basis for the coming melting season, I’ve calculated the mean temp anomaly for the period 1 October – 25 March based on this CAD drawing:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FWinterpower%25202015%2520-%25202016%2520big_zpsani1fzph.jpg&hash=39d06955217fb12990fb95b4eb71c2a9)

For the Arctic Ocean the calculation added up to a +4.2 dC anomaly.
That might not sound as spectacular compared to the data that have been circling around the Blog and Forum during the last few months.
But I did this FI at the end of ’13-’14, which produced IIRC  a mean between +1 and +2 (which was pretty awesome in those days).

My friends, +4.2 over such a large area and during six months is terrifying… This contributed a lot to the escalating warming reported by GISTEMP.

I’ll post a comparison to ’13-’14 later.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 31, 2016, 12:06:36 AM
To illustrate the background this winter has produced as a basis for the coming melting season, I’ve calculated the mean temp anomaly for the period 1 October – 25 March based on this CAD drawing:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FWinterpower%25202015%2520-%25202016%2520big_zpsani1fzph.jpg&hash=39d06955217fb12990fb95b4eb71c2a9)

For the Arctic Ocean the calculation added up to a +4.2 dC anomaly.
That might not sound as spectacular compared to the data that have been circling around the Blog and Forum during the last few months.
But I did this FI at the end of ’13-’14, which produced IIRC  a mean between +1 and +2 (which was pretty awesome in those days).

My friends, +4.2 over such a large area and during six months is terrifying… This contributed a lot to the escalating warming reported by GISTEMP.

I’ll post a comparison to ’13-’14 later.
Terrifying indeed. 4.3+ is bad enough, but it is even worse when you look at how that heat was distributed.  The worst anomalies 9C+, are over the the most critical ice.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Michael Hauber on March 31, 2016, 01:31:15 AM
Terrifying indeed. 4.3+ is bad enough, but it is even worse when you look at how that heat was distributed.  The worst anomalies 9C+, are over the the most critical ice.

I think the opposite.  The ice on the Atlantic side is the least critical, as it tends to be transported out of the Arctic.  We also see very small differences between summer and winter in ice edge in this area.  (unless current conditions cause unprecedented substantial melt on this side of the Arctic)  Warm Atlantic currents melt ice a long way north in this area, and once the warm current is left behind we are in the coldest part of the Arctic and it is very difficult to melt more ice. 

The most critical ice in my opinion is the Laptev and Siberian and Beaufort sectors.  Laptev and Beaufort produces early open water and start the summer albedo feedback process.  All sectors show significant year to year variation in annual minimum, with the Siberian sector being important in my opinion as 2007 and 2012 were the only years in which the thicker tongue of ice that often forms towards Siberia melted out completely.  Laptev and beaufort have seen the least warm temperatures, and some moderate temperatures have extended into Siberian  area, but not nearly as warm as some other regions.  However wind transport has been transporting quite a lot of ice from Beaufort towards Siberia, so I think the Beaufort sector is a bit worse off than the temperature maps suggest, and the Siberian sector better off.  The warmer area towards the core of the Beaufort gyre could be important - although this area is unlikely to completely melt out, it will still probably partially melt out into floes that melt around the edges and so allow the ice edge to retreat faster whenever we are in a compaction regime.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 31, 2016, 01:37:44 AM
Terrifying indeed. 4.3+ is bad enough, but it is even worse when you look at how that heat was distributed.  The worst anomalies 9C+, are over the the most critical ice.

I think the opposite.  The ice on the Atlantic side is the least critical...
<snippage>
I will ruminate on that.  Others please chime in.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Adam Ash on March 31, 2016, 04:29:55 AM
The heat is hitting the Beaufort.  Does anybody know what the rate of rotation of the Beaufort Gyre is?  Could that hard-hit portion of the Beaufort ice get to Siberia before the next freezing season?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Skier on March 31, 2016, 07:13:50 AM
That is insane.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FZoR1rcQ.jpg&hash=56e36c6d625e7ef5e8b117e0387bd9c8)

But how do we explain that at day 88, the highest artic sea ice extent of the year was reached at 12.92136 million km2?  To maintain credibility we need to follow the facts and allow them to tell the story.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 31, 2016, 07:26:03 AM
That is insane.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FZoR1rcQ.jpg&hash=56e36c6d625e7ef5e8b117e0387bd9c8)

But how do we explain that at day 88, the highest artic sea ice extent of the year was reached at 12.92136 million km2?  To maintain credibility we need to follow the facts and allow them to tell the story.
The timing really isn't particularly relevant, Skier, late or early.  +10C is still below freezing, and temperatures will remain cold enough to refreeze leads for weeks to come.

What is relevant and affected by those temperatures is...

* Ice Strength
* Ice thickness/volume
* Net ocean heat content
* Snow cover (on land, which will increase drainage outflow into the Arctic from watersheds, on
                     sea ice, to the extent that it reduced thickening or increases albedo)
* Total sea ice cover at max (which was over 1,000,000 KM2 *lower* than 2012's)

The consensus is, that how these have changed will accelerate the start of the melt season.  How much, is not yet certain.  Those are the facts, and they are telling the story.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Skier on March 31, 2016, 07:31:37 AM
That is insane.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FZoR1rcQ.jpg&hash=56e36c6d625e7ef5e8b117e0387bd9c8)

But how do we explain that at day 88, the highest artic sea ice extent of the year was reached at 12.92136 million km2?  To maintain credibility we need to follow the facts and allow them to tell the story.
The timing really isn't particularly relevant, Skier, late or early.  +10C is still below freezing, and temperatures will remain cold enough to refreeze leads for weeks to come.

What is relevant and affected by those temperatures is...

* Ice Strength
* Ice thickness/volume
* Net ocean heat content
* Snow cover (on land, which will increase drainage outflow into the Arctic from watersheds, on
                     sea ice, to the extent that it reduced thickening or increases albedo)
* Total sea ice cover at max (which was over 1,000,000 KM2 *lower* than 2012's)

The consensus is, that how these have changed will accelerate the start of the melt season.  How much, is not yet certain.  Those are the facts, and they are telling the story.

Fair enough.  But I would not predict 2016 will see record low sea ice.  In fact, I predict it will be fairly average this year.  Time will tell.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 31, 2016, 07:34:56 AM
Fair enough.  But I would not predict 2016 will see record low sea ice.  In fact, I predict it will be fairly average this year.  Time will tell.

Rather than just assert, I would suggest you present your evidence and argue your theory.  I'm sure people would be willing to evaluate it, and we all might learn something.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Skier on March 31, 2016, 07:50:06 AM
Fair enough.  But I would not predict 2016 will see record low sea ice.  In fact, I predict it will be fairly average this year.  Time will tell.

Rather than just assert, I would suggest you present your evidence and argue your theory.  I'm sure people would be willing to evaluate it, and we all might learn something.

Alright.  Looking at the arctic sea ice extent graph you'll notice that notwithstanding the fact that 2016 had the lowest high sea ice extent ever, it is still increasing later in the season than almost any previous year going back to 1979.  So I am looking at the slope which, while not steep is still positive, while almost every previous year had a negative slope by now.  Second, you mention high snow packs leading to high snow melt.  The enormous amount of heat energy required to melt snow will have a net cooling effect on the surrounding air, reducing the tendency of ice to melt this summer.  Late snows from El Nino will continue to increase snow pack leading to increased cooling due to latent heat of fusion of all that snow.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: S.Pansa on March 31, 2016, 07:59:19 AM
You are talking about this slope here? Upwards indeed. Let's stick wiht the facts, shall we?

High snow packs?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Skier on March 31, 2016, 08:00:05 AM
Alright.  Looking at the arctic sea ice extent graph you'll notice that notwithstanding the fact that 2016 had the lowest high sea ice extent ever, it is still increasing later in the season than almost any previous year going back to 1979.  So I am looking at the slope which, while not steep is still positive, while almost every previous year had a negative slope by now.  Second, you mention high snow packs leading to high snow melt.  The enormous amount of heat energy required to melt snow will have a net cooling effect on the surrounding air, reducing the tendency of ice to melt this summer.  Late snows from El Nino will continue to increase snow pack leading to increased cooling due to latent heat of fusion of all that snow.
[/quote]

And furthermore, the aerosols emitted by the recent Alaska volcanic eruption will provide a cooling effect that, while not huge, can depress temperature, leading to a feedback loop of sorts that, together with increased snow melt, will cause a further drop in temperature.  In areas such as the Great Basin when there is no wind to stir up the air, melting snow, coupled with cool air, causes heat inversion, which causes unusually cooler air near the ground surface that can last weeks.  A drop in a few degrees can greatly raise relative humidity, creating greater cloud formation, sun reflection, and temperature drop. 

My point isn't that this must happen.  Only that it can happen and no one can predict it with certainty.  Again, there is no much uncertainty in predicting ice cap coverage that my guess is as good as yours.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Skier on March 31, 2016, 08:09:30 AM
You are talking about this slope here? Upwards indeed. Let's stick wiht the facts, shall we?

High snow packs?

I was merely referring JLadden's post about melting snow pushing sea ice out to sea.  If in fact snow pack is low, then the effect he references will be smaller than normal.

Second, your graph showing a downward slope is inconsistent with Cryosphere Today, which shows the 2016 high being reached March 30 and an upward slope.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: S.Pansa on March 31, 2016, 08:17:35 AM
Second, your graph showing a downward slope is inconsistent with Cryosphere Today, which shows the 2016 high being reached March 30 and an upward slope.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html)
[/quote]

Not really. The one I showed is sea ice extent from IJIS (JAXA or whatever it is called these days), the one you refere to is Sea Ice Area. And from Wipneus (see here (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1457.msg72693.html#msg72693)) numbers we know that come thursday and friday - hence today and tomorrow - SIA will trop 124 and 137km^2 respektively. So, all of a sudden, the slope is steep down here as well. My conclusion: The slope doesn't tell us much. La tendenza è mobile. ;D
But whatever. Staying with the facts - as you have told others to do - should apply for all of us, dont' you think?

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Skier on March 31, 2016, 08:33:34 AM
Second, your graph showing a downward slope is inconsistent with Cryosphere Today, which shows the 2016 high being reached March 30 and an upward slope.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html)

Not really. The one I showed is sea ice extent from IJIS (JAXA or whatever it is called these days), the one you refere to is Sea Ice Area. And from Wipneus (see here (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1457.msg72693.html#msg72693)) numbers we know that come thursday and friday - hence today and tomorrow - SIA will trop 124 and 137km^2 respektively. So, all of a sudden, the slope is steep down here as well. My conclusion: The slope doesn't tell us much. La tendenza è mobile. ;D
But whatever. Staying with the facts - as you have told others to do - should apply for all of us, dont' you think?
[/quote]

According to NOAA's chart, at March 23, prior to last week's sharp increase in total sea ice area, we were right at the 10 year average and now likely exceeds the average.  In addition the amount of 2016 sea ice was only 3% less than the 1980-2010 average for that day and the 10 year max for that day.  We are not talking about a cataclysmic drop in sea ice. 
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: S.Pansa on March 31, 2016, 09:04:47 AM
Second, your graph showing a downward slope is inconsistent with Cryosphere Today, which shows the 2016 high being reached March 30 and an upward slope.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html)

Not really. The one I showed is sea ice extent from IJIS (JAXA or whatever it is called these days), the one you refere to is Sea Ice Area. And from Wipneus (see here (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1457.msg72693.html#msg72693)) numbers we know that come thursday and friday - hence today and tomorrow - SIA will trop 124 and 137km^2 respektively. So, all of a sudden, the slope is steep down here as well. My conclusion: The slope doesn't tell us much. La tendenza è mobile. ;D
But whatever. Staying with the facts - as you have told others to do - should apply for all of us, dont' you think?

According to NOAA's chart, at March 23, prior to last week's sharp increase in total sea ice area, we were right at the 10 year average and now likely exceeds the average.  In addition the amount of 2016 sea ice was only 3% less than the 1980-2010 average for that day and the 10 year max for that day.  We are not talking about a cataclysmic drop in sea ice.
[/quote]

Ah, now you have changed to switching goal-posts and building strawman. Perfect! What a surprise ...
Who has mentioned a cataclysmic drop in sea ice here? And why are we suddenly talking about total Ice Coverage of the Northern Hemisphere and not about Arctic Sea Ice anymore?"

Because the IMS numbers show (http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/ims_ice_extent_explanation.html):
 
Quote
... the entire area of ice covered water bodies over the entire Northern Hemisphere and are calculated in Lambert Azimuthal Equal Area Projection with a WGS84 Datum. The daily total ice extents are calculated from a 3-day running mean to eliminate daily variability and provide a clear trend line.


But as we are changing the subject to our likings and are happily cherry picking now.
Minimum Artic Sea Ice Volume in September 2016 was about 70% below the value of 1979.

PS: But this has gone really off topic now. So back to the 2016 melting season.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on March 31, 2016, 09:12:12 AM
The only sure thing is you are trolling us.

We all know the melt season will be determined by weather.

But no one is posting bs. The ice is clearly vulnerable at modern unprecedented levels.   

Get ready


Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: meddoc on March 31, 2016, 09:16:30 AM
I've played a little with NSIDC graphs.
Given that, the winter has been far warmer than that of 2011- 12 and
a simple repeat of the melt season 2012 would take us down to:
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 31, 2016, 09:58:26 AM
Ok, a while back I did some number crunching and posted it elsewhere.  I worked up numbers for NSIDC SIA and IJIS SIE, comparing annual minimum/maximums since 2003 or so.  (I've not yet crunched things down for SIA all the way back to 1980, but give it some time and it will appear.)

From this I derived what I refer to as "The Weather" - the average annual loss during those years, and steps of -2, -1, +1 and +2 Standard deviations.  This pretty much captures the variation of "weather" on the melt season, establishing within general bounds, how much energy gets transferred during a melt season into the ice, and also establishes confidence intervals pegging where we can generally expect the end of the season state to fall between.  So, here it is:

StepExpected Loss at StepApprox End of Season based on 2016 Max
-2 melt loss82435595656411
-1 melt loss89800714919929
Average Loss97165824183418
+1 SD Loss104530943446906
+2 SD Loss111896062710394
Approx. 2012 Loss115320002368000

Note that the +1SD loss puts us near 2012.  The +2 and same loss as 2012 put us well under 2012's result. An *average* loss puts us in the ball park with 2007, 2011 and 2015.

So, what the weather of the last few years tells us, combined with the El Nino year we are still experiencing, is don't expect anything resembling a recovery in 2016.

In fact, be prepared for a swan dive that blows us past 2012's numbers.

Now, my sample is rather small.  However, the losses, save 2012's for the last 5 years are almost dead-on average - right around 9.7/9.8 Million KM2 lost during the melt season - so I have fairly high confidence we'll hit the "average" numbers.  Considering the weakened state of the ice, the excess heat left over from not just a warm but positively "Hot" winter, the question in my mind is how far above that average the melt is going to run.  As I said, if we line up with 2012 conditions, we enter new and frightening territory.

Late season maximums really don't provide any comfort here.  In fact considering 2012's, they are rather worrying.

[Edit:  Since 2007, no year has had an annual loss of less than 9.56 million KM2 (2014).]
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Peter Ellis on March 31, 2016, 12:06:44 PM
Arguments over the timing of the winter maximum are just the "plateau hypothesis" in disguise - since a longer flatter winter plateau has a higher chance that random fluctuations will cause an unusually early or late maximum.

The "plateau hypothesis" is itself vacuous because there are two ways to convert a single mid-winter peak into a longer flatter winter plateau.  (a) raise the "shoulders" of the curve - i.e. the ice forms earlier and starts to melt later.  (b) cut off the "head" of the curve - i.e. a failure of ice formation at the coldest part of the year.

We can all handwave about these till the Sun turns into a red giant, at which point we will have a nice flat plateau of zero ice and indeed zero rock.

The bald fact is that after detrending, there is no correlation between the winter maximum and the summer minimum.  Everything beyond that is numerology.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Juan C. García on March 31, 2016, 01:23:08 PM
The bald fact is that after detrending, there is no correlation between the winter maximum and the summer minimum.  Everything beyond that is numerology.

I see a correlation between the winter minimum and the summer minimum. The low SIE years in winter had been 2005, 2006, 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2016.
The ASI melt crisis starts clearly in 2005. You can argue that other years -like 2002- were bad, but the tendency to lose ice on an accelerated speed, I believe it started at 2005.
2006 was a bad year and it had the possibility of break 2005 record on september. At the end it didn't happen, but it was bad enough to be noticed by NSIDC:

Quote
The relatively cool and stormy conditions that characterized August (see reports below) may have averted a repeat of the extreme ice losses of 2005.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2006/10/ (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2006/10/)
   

Besides 2012, the worst years have been 2007, 2011 and 2015, all with low winter max.
So the only year that had a huge winter max and a very low summer minimum was 2012. All the other years that had a low winter record, had a significant summer minimum. Edit: So, looking at the years with september minimum, only 2012 had a huge winter max and a very low summer minimum. But all the years that had a low winter max, had a significant summer minimum.

Of course, we will have to wait to see what will happen in 2016, but from my point of view, the start of 2016 is really a bad sign, not to be underestimated.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: ruffed on March 31, 2016, 01:38:15 PM
Postulations of disaster I see from all. I have just returned from the Seychelles. Bird Island is in real observable  danger of dissappearing due to rising sea leveles
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: DavidR on March 31, 2016, 02:44:10 PM
Arguments over the timing of the winter maximum are just the "plateau hypothesis" in disguise - since a longer flatter winter plateau has a higher chance that random fluctuations will cause an unusually early or late maximum.

The "plateau hypothesis" is itself vacuous because there are two ways to convert a single mid-winter peak into a longer flatter winter plateau.  (a) raise the "shoulders" of the curve - i.e. the ice forms earlier and starts to melt later.  (b) cut off the "head" of the curve - i.e. a failure of ice formation at the coldest part of the year.

We can all handwave about these till the Sun turns into a red giant, at which point we will have a nice flat plateau of zero ice and indeed zero rock.

The bald fact is that after detrending, there is no correlation between the winter maximum and the summer minimum.  Everything beyond that is numerology.
Without wishing to unnecessarily defend my Plateau Hypothesis, it was based on the observation that since 1998 the duration of the plateau has had an increasingly positive correlation with the loss of area or extent compared to the slightly negative relationship  prior to 1998. This was based on 15 year trend values. The timing of the maximum has nothing to do  with it. 

Scientifically the period of observation is very short and it is not a highly accurate predictive tool  but it may be one thing,  amongst many,  that assists in providing a more accurate estimate of the final extent  and area. Once we are certain that the "plateau" is over for this year  I  will produce some predictions for this year.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: ghoti on March 31, 2016, 04:08:54 PM
As I read this thread I found myself thinking "This is the kind of analysis Tamino might do". After a quick search I didn't find a blog entry on it but it doesn't mean he didn't do it.

http://blogs.planet3.org/author/tamino/ (http://blogs.planet3.org/author/tamino/)

I wonder if we could interest him in adding to the discussion.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 31, 2016, 05:52:50 PM
Arguments over the timing of the winter maximum are just the "plateau hypothesis" in disguise - since a longer flatter winter plateau has a higher chance that random fluctuations will cause an unusually early or late maximum.

The "plateau hypothesis" is itself vacuous because there are two ways to convert a single mid-winter peak into a longer flatter winter plateau.  (a) raise the "shoulders" of the curve - i.e. the ice forms earlier and starts to melt later.  (b) cut off the "head" of the curve - i.e. a failure of ice formation at the coldest part of the year.

We can all handwave about these till the Sun turns into a red giant, at which point we will have a nice flat plateau of zero ice and indeed zero rock.

The bald fact is that after detrending, there is no correlation between the winter maximum and the summer minimum.  Everything beyond that is numerology.
Without wishing to unnecessarily defend my Plateau Hypothesis, it was based on the observation that since 1998 the duration of the plateau has had an increasingly positive correlation with the loss of area or extent compared to the slightly negative relationship  prior to 1998. This was based on 15 year trend values. The timing of the maximum has nothing to do  with it. 

Scientifically the period of observation is very short and it is not a highly accurate predictive tool  but it may be one thing,  amongst many,  that assists in providing a more accurate estimate of the final extent  and area. Once we are certain that the "plateau" is over for this year  I  will produce some predictions for this year.
I think part of what Peter is objecting to, and what I think I understand, is the "Plateau" is a signal, not a cause, and the causes for actual value reached at maximum or minimum are independent of it.  It's in the same realm as what I just posted about annual average losses; the annual loss from max to minimum and gain back at the end to a new maximum are signals, not causes.

When you examine it, it's also pretty clear to me it has a rather limited data set to draw on.

Causes unfortunately are things we don't really yet have comprehensive data for - things like ocean temperature, ice strength, system heat content and temperature, rates of heat flow, interactions between the atmosphere and ocean on a global scale.  We have a ways to go, and until then are mostly tracking trends in gross metrics while looking through a glass darkly.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on March 31, 2016, 10:43:02 PM
For the sake of transparency, I'd like to announce that I've banned Skier with the accompanying text:

Quote
Skier, it was fun while it lasted, but I don't think your contributions will be a contribution to interesting discussions in a friendly atmosphere. While I was reading your comments too many flags went up because of references to worn-out climate risk denier mythinformation (global sea ice, vikings, etc). Good luck with finding another forum, or maybe try WUWT.

Best,

Neven
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: DavidR on March 31, 2016, 10:46:11 PM
Arguments over the timing of the winter maximum are just the "plateau hypothesis" in disguise - since a longer flatter winter plateau has a higher chance that random fluctuations will cause an unusually early or late maximum.
Without wishing to unnecessarily defend my Plateau Hypothesis
I think part of what Peter is objecting to, and what I think I understand, is the "Plateau" is a signal not a cause, and the causes for actual value reached at maximum or minimum are independent of it.
I  agree it is only a signal and the only question is whether it is a meaningful signal. As there is a seperate thread for this I will post this years analysis on that over the weekend.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on March 31, 2016, 11:43:46 PM
According to NOAA's chart, at March 23, prior to last week's sharp increase in total sea ice area, we were right at the 10 year average and now likely exceeds the average.  In addition the amount of 2016 sea ice was only 3% less than the 1980-2010 average for that day and the 10 year max for that day.  We are not talking about a cataclysmic drop in sea ice.

I know he's banned, but just to make sure everyone knows why that chart looked the way it does, and was so much higher than the SIE...

"Total IMS Sea and Lake Ice extent coverage calculations are based on all water bodies that have the majority of the surface covered at 4 KM resolution. Total ice coverages are only calculated from March – September of each year to capture the maximum and minimum values for the season. Values represent the entire area of ice covered water bodies over the entire Northern Hemisphere and are calculated in Lambert Azimuthal Equal Area Projection with a WGS84 Datum. The daily total ice extents are calculated from a 3-day running mean to eliminate daily variability and provide a clear trend line."

In short, bait and switch.

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/ims_ice_extent_explanation.html (http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/ims_ice_extent_explanation.html)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Michael Hauber on April 01, 2016, 12:26:03 AM
Terrifying indeed. 4.3+ is bad enough, but it is even worse when you look at how that heat was distributed.  The worst anomalies 9C+, are over the the most critical ice.

I think the opposite.  The ice on the Atlantic side is the least critical...
<snippage>
I will ruminate on that.  Others please chime in.

I don't think that damage to the ice by the hot spot on the Atlantic side is significant.  But I will add that the hot spot also represents increased winds from the South in this region, which may contribute to more warm Atlantic water entering the Arctic?  I do recall reading somewhere a long time ago that a warmer pulse of water entering the Arctic and then circulating anti clockwise along the Russian side contributed to the low ice in 2007.  But considering my patchy understanding of the THC current, I'm not sure whether an extra wind push would just mean more almost but not quite freezing dense salty water a few hundred meters under the ice, and this water reaching further north before it does its sinking thing or whether there are more significant consequences.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: bbr2314 on April 01, 2016, 12:38:15 AM
The damage on the Atlantic side has been hugely significant. Here is 2016 vs 2012 and 2015.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcires1.colorado.edu%2F%7Easlater%2FICEDIFF%2FIMG%2Fice_con_delt_2012.gif&hash=2c99415794e7474060f55685b9bc0424)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcires1.colorado.edu%2F%7Easlater%2FICEDIFF%2FIMG%2Fice_con_delt_2015.gif&hash=e025ca26b8c0d7dc63dfc17085bd6635)

& 2007 for good measure

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcires1.colorado.edu%2F%7Easlater%2FICEDIFF%2FIMG%2Fice_con_delt_2007.gif&hash=4805df84f384c105027c7ec1b9c68de7)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: LRC1962 on April 01, 2016, 06:28:55 AM
Terrifying indeed. 4.3+ is bad enough, but it is even worse when you look at how that heat was distributed.  The worst anomalies 9C+, are over the the most critical ice.

I think the opposite.  The ice on the Atlantic side is the least critical...
<snippage>
I will ruminate on that.  Others please chime in.

I don't think that damage to the ice by the hot spot on the Atlantic side is significant. <snippage>.
Looking at these comparisons:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcires1.colorado.edu%2F%7Easlater%2FARCTIC_TAIR%2FIMG%2Farctic_t2m_dfa_2011.gif&hash=3d95fe6060618390f739d9f1638c79c5)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcires1.colorado.edu%2F%7Easlater%2FARCTIC_TAIR%2FIMG%2Farctic_t2m_dfa_2012.gif&hash=006dc5f4b356252ded0f804389ed3f7b)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcires1.colorado.edu%2F%7Easlater%2FARCTIC_TAIR%2FIMG%2Farctic_t2m_dfa_2013.gif&hash=6bba2b49a97e3faaaeae27d2fd4e61a3)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcires1.colorado.edu%2F%7Easlater%2FARCTIC_TAIR%2FIMG%2Farctic_t2m_dfa_2014.gif&hash=a9e305b2c1930b7892b7c6d9a6bdb615)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcires1.colorado.edu%2F%7Easlater%2FARCTIC_TAIR%2FIMG%2Farctic_t2m_dfa_2015.gif&hash=b7f136cdf3dea9c34866faa8d4c46463)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcires1.colorado.edu%2F%7Easlater%2FARCTIC_TAIR%2FIMG%2Farctic_t2m_dfa_2016.gif&hash=1c5ce41ff39e4229cf35941ef29167a2)
trying to claim there is insignificant ice damage makes me scratch my head. ??? :o
If you look at only ice extent/area/volume numbers, you may be  able to make claims of being able to argue about damage. But, ice quality also depends upon FDD and that is why the ice in 2013-2015 survived the way it did. This year we are in territory so new it is absolutely scarey. On top of that the downturn started in the most important ice thickening time of the season.
unless we get a very cold, non-export melt season, things are not going to be very good for the ice conditions in September. Normally temps do not give great indicators for what will happen to the ice, but in the case of this year to ignore those anomalies would IMO be a very questionable approach.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: werther on April 01, 2016, 09:18:04 AM
Here’s the comparison that I wrote about above.

On the right is the temp anomaly for winter ’12 – ’13. The period is slightly different; 15 Sep – 14 Feb (instead of 1 Oct – 25 Mar for the ’15 – ’16 overview on the left).

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FWinterpower%2520comparison%25202016%2520to%25202013%2520small_zpsqak5xbgd.jpg&hash=b98da2558014cd7327d3b753f9d9dc34)

The difference in the mean anomaly is less striking than I thought two days ago. In ’13 I calculated +2.5 dC against +4.2 dC now.

Still, the margin this winter has over ’13 is large. The origins of the specifics is also different. During ’12-’13 the large open swath of Arctic Ocean after the record minimum contributed a lot. Less so for last winter. During ’12-’13 Baffin Bay and Labrador Sea had warmer anomalies. It is the only part where last winter was considerably cooler.

Unfortunately, Baffin Bay and Labrador Sea is not the region where the fate of the perennial sea ice will be decided. The regular Barentsz ‘radiator’ was stronger than ever and the crucial stretch of MYI North of the Canadian Archipelago’s channels has experienced  mean +5 dC anomalies.

This means little for the outcome of minimum extent coming September. But it does make a forecast on low PIOMAS volume numbers relevant.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: 6roucho on April 01, 2016, 11:05:28 AM
For the sake of transparency, I'd like to announce that I've banned Skier with the accompanying text:

Quote
Skier, it was fun while it lasted, but I don't think your contributions will be a contribution to interesting discussions in a friendly atmosphere. While I was reading your comments too many flags went up because of references to worn-out climate risk denier mythinformation (global sea ice, vikings, etc). Good luck with finding another forum, or maybe try WUWT.

Best,

Neven

This is probably the wrong thread, but...

Scepticism is vitally important in science. It's a crucial part the semiformal game we play called the scientific method.

Sadly, that process has gone haywire. The widespread tendency to adopt a default position of disbelief of new science has scientists bridling at any form of public challenge, for fear that it's scepticism of the second kind.

I only hope that we don't start booting out people who want to be difficult for good reasons. It'd be unfortunate to lose the baby with the bathwater.

Even refuting the arguments of 'deniers' has utility in that respect.

PS - Neven was probably right. Skier was displaying a few too many of the badges of mythinformation to be real.

PPS - Of course, scientists taking umbrage at being challenged is also part of the game.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: oren on April 01, 2016, 11:29:20 AM
The damage on the Atlantic side has been hugely significant. Here is 2016 vs 2012 and 2015.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcires1.colorado.edu%2F%7Easlater%2FICEDIFF%2FIMG%2Fice_con_delt_2012.gif&hash=2c99415794e7474060f55685b9bc0424)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcires1.colorado.edu%2F%7Easlater%2FICEDIFF%2FIMG%2Fice_con_delt_2015.gif&hash=e025ca26b8c0d7dc63dfc17085bd6635)

& 2007 for good measure

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcires1.colorado.edu%2F%7Easlater%2FICEDIFF%2FIMG%2Fice_con_delt_2007.gif&hash=4805df84f384c105027c7ec1b9c68de7)

Thanks. The differences are WOW. Will it make a difference come September? I personally think it will. The Atlantic sector is closer to where the action is, compared to Okhotsk or Labrador, and a positive insolation / albedo feedback might make a difference for the ice inside the Arctic Basin (weather-dependent of course).
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Laurent on April 01, 2016, 12:52:16 PM
If that hold, you bet it will make a difference. Until recently the Arctic was "protected" by Swalbard now that the Atlantic flow is beyond it, melt will occur full throttle, especially because of the normal Arctic drift movement.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Pettit on April 01, 2016, 01:04:16 PM
Scepticism is vitally important in science. It's a crucial part the semiformal game we play called the scientific method.

No statement could be any truer. However, there is a world of difference between true scientific skepticism and garden variety denialism. In his/her very short time here, Skier exhibited the latter. In droves: cherry picking, false equivalence, concern trolling, repetition of idiotic denialist talking points ("Greenland was green!"), and so on.

I only hope that we don't start booting out people who want to be difficult for good reasons. It'd be unfortunate to lose the baby with the bathwater.

I've never known Neven to do that; in fact, he's shown a much more patient hand than have I in fora I've managed. So I don't have any reason to suspect he's about to start doing so.

Even refuting the arguments of 'deniers' has utility in that respect.

Well, to a point. Then it becomes like arguing with your three-year-old about why he's not allowed to have candy for dinner.

PPS - Of course, scientists taking umbrage at being challenged is also part of the game.

Perhaps. Though "being challenged" is one thing, and an expected if sometimes uncomfortable part of the scientific method. Having your time wasted by someone who demonstrably has no interest whatsoever in scientific truth, but is instead only here to obfuscate that truth to delay doing something about it, is something else entirely.

Any my own apologies for going off-topic here; I'll say no more.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 01, 2016, 01:17:34 PM
@Laurent nice read, attitude and talking about it from time to time is essential and a TOPIC in each forum.

i for my part very much appreciate your input on the matter (FWIW) LOL
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 01, 2016, 01:38:41 PM
So currently the most vital thing happening in real time is the snow cover over Western Canada and Southern Alaska has been getting pummeled falling between a very anomalous and warm ridge and a vortex which have been driving warm moist air Northward.

modis 3-6-7 from today shows the extensive damage already done to the snow pack. 
Low elecation areas even in the interior have lost snow cover already.  In some cases 30 or more days early. 

Furthermore the pattern doesn't break.  Only relaxes but with strengthening solar insolation and a modeled return to an even warmer similar pattern next week that pushes further N/E.

We could be seeing an unprecedented early snow melt all the way to or near the arctic coastal region underway.


And why not?   The global temperature situation is currently running WAYYYYYY above any modern historical records.


In other words global temps are currently soul crushing the previous record's for this time of year. 
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 01, 2016, 01:41:07 PM
LRC1962, where did you find those great graphs? I know Andrew Slater's website, but couldn't find graphs from previous years. Man, those would've been a great addition to the Winter analysis. In fact, I'm going to write an addendum.  :)

The same goes for bbr2314's fantastic comparison maps!
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Siffy on April 01, 2016, 01:44:30 PM
LRC1962, where did you find those great graphs? I know Andrew Slater's website, but couldn't find graphs from previous years. Man, those would've been a great addition to the Winter analysis. In fact, I'm going to write an addendum.  :)

The same goes for bbr2314's fantastic comparison maps!

http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/index_80_t2m.html (http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/index_80_t2m.html)

The window on the left gives links for the previous years.

alternatively use the following url link  http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/IDX/index_t2m_n80_2016.html (http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/IDX/index_t2m_n80_2016.html) and change the date in the link.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 01, 2016, 01:47:20 PM
I must be blind! Because it says '+80N Arctic 2m Air Temperature' above the window with all the years, I assumed that was all they showed (like at DMI) and never scrolled down. Silly me.  ;D
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 01, 2016, 01:48:37 PM
A city called Mayo in the Yukon reached 14.6C yesterday.  Crushing its previous record of 12C set in 1960.  The records go back to 1923 there.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FP8DTboC.jpg&hash=6945402a7b577b60a7abd00a81b801ad)

Some city a but South called Carmacks reached 17.6C beating their record by 6C.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FuvgzUy9.jpg&hash=539b56066eb3087aa0c2a0d3d2a65659)

Its April 1st. 
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Siffy on April 01, 2016, 01:50:15 PM
I must be blind! Because it says '+80N Arctic 2m Air Temperature' above the window with all the years, I assumed that was all they showed (like at DMI) and never scrolled down. Silly me.  ;D

Hah, no worries. I've done exactly the same on something similar in the past. :p
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: 6roucho on April 01, 2016, 02:19:27 PM
I only hope that we don't start booting out people who want to be difficult for good reasons. It'd be unfortunate to lose the baby with the bathwater.

I've never known Neven to do that; in fact, he's shown a much more patient hand than have I in fora I've managed. So I don't have any reason to suspect he's about to start doing so.
I think you misread my post, Jim. I wasn't criticizing Neven. His work here is exemplary. Those were general concerns I have with the world, and the quality of discourse between what has become two armed camps, in a war that science is losing. The melting of skier's piste is inconsequential.[/threadjack]
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 01, 2016, 08:10:08 PM
Great reference shot of the western arctic from the Canadian Weather Service (GOES 11nm IR image)

Be interesting to check back on this later on.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 01, 2016, 08:21:33 PM
So much thin ice in and in front of Amundsen Bay...  :(

If things get as sunny there as they did last year, early in the melting season, the Pacific side is going to get kick(start)ed hard.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: NeilT on April 01, 2016, 10:51:14 PM
Looking at the discussions going on about ice volume and area and extent, I was reminded of the constant statements from Gavin Schmidt at Realclimate about seasonal variations which are ironed out in the decadal averages and only the decadal averages really show the trend.

So I grabbed the NOAA extent dataset (http://ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/) from 1979 to 2014 and carried out that exercise.

Now we don't have the whole of the 2010's so I calculated two sets of figures.  One for the decade on decade to 2008 and one for the first six years of each decade which can be compared to 2009 - 2014.

For the Maximum average the figures come out as this:

1979 - 1988  16.22
1989 - 1998  15.77
1999 - 2008  15.57

for the maximum on the first 6 years, it comes out as

1979 - 1984  16.21
1989 - 1994  15.84
1999 - 2004  15.34
2009 - 2014  15.13

For the Minimum it's somewhat more pronounced

Decadal:

1979 - 1988  6.96
1989 - 1998  6.54
1999 - 2008  5.53

for the Minimum on the first 6 years

1979 - 1984  7.02
1989 - 1994  6.57
1999 - 2004  5.93
2009 - 2014  4.56


So I have a few of questions...

What recovery?  On any decadal figure.

What recovery on the comparable decade on decade for the first 6 years of the decade?

Who wants to bet that the 2010's will finish above the 2000's when we complete the decadal average in 2019???

Who is willing to bet that the decadal average Minimum for the 2020's will be over 4M?

Who is willing to bet that the decadal average Maximum for the 2020's will be over 14M?


I think that half the discussions we have about "recovery" are driven by the very narrow, year on year or even 2-3 year view we take.  If you push it out to the decadal level, any talk of recovery is completely redundant.

Gavin was absolutely right.  If you look at the signature over the decades the message is clear and the impact is crystal clear.

Whilst it doesn't help us determine exactly what this years Minimum will be, now that we know the maximum, or how the melt season will go.  It does help us understand that the heat is having an impact and that even in a cold weather season the ice should be less than it would have been even in the 2000's.... Which is a starting point I guess.





Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Buddy on April 01, 2016, 11:26:24 PM
Quote
What recovery?  On any decadal figure.

There are no recovery's on a decadal basis.  But those who are paid by the fossil fuel industry know that.  And that is why they don't use LONGER TERM trends.

They have lied for 40 years....and many of them aren't EVER going to stop.  It's not as though they have ethics....they don't.  Look at them as the "Bernie Madoff's" or "Lance Armstrong's" of the climate business.

Arctic amplification is going into overdrive now.....and those not wearing swim trunks will be exposed in the coming 1 - 3 years.  To those looking at the science....they already ARE exposed.  But the mainstream will understand they are exposed (and lying) as well.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 02, 2016, 02:14:57 AM
Looking at the discussions going on about ice volume and area and extent, I was reminded of the constant statements from Gavin Schmidt at Realclimate about seasonal variations which are ironed out in the decadal averages and only the decadal averages really show the trend.

<snippage>
For the Minimum it's somewhat more pronounced
<and more snippage>


Good discussion, NeilT.

As to why the changes in max are less pronounced, I think it comes down to that even when forced by amplification, the Arctic in winter is still well below freezing over about the same extent.  Across areas affected by plus 10C anomalies still left temperatures at about -20C. That will still produce meter+ thick ice; just not as strong, nor as thick as it should be.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: LRC1962 on April 02, 2016, 03:24:43 AM
So currently the most vital thing happening in real time is the snow cover over Western Canada and Southern Alaska has been getting pummeled falling between a very anomalous and warm ridge and a vortex which have been driving warm moist air Northward.
Granted if you take a 30+ yr. average it is anomalous. On the other hand looking at the past few years I think it is getting to the point that the RRR-TTT setup over NA is becoming so regular that we can now change our language to it being normal. The only question is, are the other big weather systems around it strong enough to temporarily dislodge it.
As far as temps in the Yukon and Alaska go, what is even scarier is what that pertains to health of the permafrost. If it goes too long then the permafrost could melt even faster then expected and that could impact even faster changes in the land then models can handle.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: ktonine on April 02, 2016, 06:29:35 AM
As far as temps in the Yukon and Alaska go, what is even scarier is what that pertains to health of the permafrost. If it goes too long then the permafrost could melt even faster then expected and that could impact even faster changes in the land then models can handle.

Carmacks and Mayo, the two villages that Friv mentioned, are both in the 'Continuous' permafrost zone.  Both are approximately 63N latitude.  Just north of the British Columbia - Yukon border and just east of the Alaska - Yukon border.

 (https://tce-live2.s3.amazonaws.com/media/media/8161ddbd-5cc6-45d5-9037-d269afd87ea5.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 02, 2016, 07:09:39 AM
Mayo hit 13.2C today WITH a North wind.  Beating the old record high. Going back to 1925.

That's what snow cover vanishing at 63N on April 1st will do for ya.

Snow albedo effect on grand display.


Carmacks hit 15C today.  Has been at 10C+ for 11-12 hours  with a very strong ESE wind that has veered Southerly as the day progressed.


To be fair the RRR is more of a NPAC feature.  The records being seen here arent from that feature recently.  This ridging is from the nino vortex weakening and sliding West overtime and with wavelengths getting shorter naturally ridging takes place out front.  This event was aided by a nasty 2000 mile+ flow for 2-3 days bringing warm air from the NCPAC to the NAWC.   The ridge was so strong warm air crossed the mtns into be interior.

Very rare
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 02, 2016, 01:06:46 PM
Great reference shot of the western arctic from the Canadian Weather Service (GOES 11nm IR image)

Be interesting to check back on this later on.
Last year it was not sunny April but windy April what started the opening of Beaufort water by drift from continent winds. This year this drift happened in February and we have SMI (second month ice) all over the place. If this wind repeats this April and then May is sunny, Beaufort won't be as interesting as last year not making it thru July.
For starters ARC CICE drift model predicts weak drift of this sort in a week, lets see how it plays
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww7320.nrlssc.navy.mil%2FhycomARC%2Fnavo%2Farcticicespddrf%2Fnowcast%2Ficespddrf2016033118_2016040500_041_arcticicespddrf.001.gif&hash=3d11e251138f2f9a93d80f40bc9e3cf1)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww7320.nrlssc.navy.mil%2FhycomARC%2Fnavo%2Farcticicespddrf%2Fnowcast%2Ficespddrf2016033118_2016040600_041_arcticicespddrf.001.gif&hash=2aaeca2e60093bdd798b79bbc56a344d)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww7320.nrlssc.navy.mil%2FhycomARC%2Fnavo%2Farcticicespddrf%2Fnowcast%2Ficespddrf2016033118_2016040700_041_arcticicespddrf.001.gif&hash=3b55df47e4077fd11c051adc48b7a13f)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 02, 2016, 01:17:25 PM
Fresh off the ASIB press: Winter analysis addendum (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/04/winter-analysis-addendum.html)

Thanks again for shoving those graphs and maps under my nose, guys/gals. My brain usually reacts after seeing something three times.  ;)

Here's what I did:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fneven1.typepad.com%2F.a%2F6a0133f03a1e37970b01b8d1b7816e970c-800wi&hash=d5aa78c95f4a83325bc3b5b348febaa9)

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 02, 2016, 02:51:38 PM
Crack event yesterday or so close to Resolute. Fascinating wrt to the cold air there.

Does anyone know whether it's a glitch or so in the river just east of Ural mountains? Some yellow and green color there at Bremens map.

//LMV
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on April 02, 2016, 03:04:56 PM
Great reference shot of the western arctic from the Canadian Weather Service (GOES 11nm IR image)

Be interesting to check back on this later on.
Thanks but could you please add a link? It helps others to trace such images back to source, and you could save us the search for the information you already have.
10.8 micrometers is roughly 11000 nm (to be pedantic as usual)
I attach the AMSR-2 from worldviewhttp://go.nasa.gov/1oqPguy (http://go.nasa.gov/1oqPguy) for additional detail (albeit at low resolution) probably showing some differences in thickness although the influence of air temperatures (I guess) makes comparisons over large distances uncertain. Again: lets keep an eye on developments.

PS the image is from the 31.3. sorry, but difference should be small at that resolution.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 02, 2016, 04:30:40 PM
Great reference shot of the western arctic from the Canadian Weather Service (GOES 11nm IR image)

Be interesting to check back on this later on.
Thanks but could you please add a link? It helps others to trace such images back to source, and you could save us the search for the information you already have.
10.8 micrometers is roughly 11000 nm (to be pedantic as usual)

I believe jdallen got it from here (http://weather.gc.ca/satellite/index_e.html). Scroll down to HRPT (NOAA polar orbiting).
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 02, 2016, 04:43:23 PM
A view of the North Pole from Terra:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#CAB (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#CAB)

At around the same time this image was recorded the freshly cleared runway at ice camp Barneo also developed some (rather smaller!) cracks (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1505.msg72981.html#msg72981).
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: oren on April 02, 2016, 10:36:15 PM
Fresh off the ASIB press: Winter analysis addendum (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/04/winter-analysis-addendum.html)

Thanks again for shoving those graphs and maps under my nose, guys/gals. My brain usually reacts after seeing something three times.  ;)

Here's what I did:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fneven1.typepad.com%2F.a%2F6a0133f03a1e37970b01b8d1b7816e970c-800wi&hash=d5aa78c95f4a83325bc3b5b348febaa9)

Great post Neven, and that chart looks scary indeed.
I was wondering why FDDs are measured from 0degC and not from -1.8degC? This would be more appropriate for sea ice formation if I'm not mistaken. Depending on the temperature variability, this could result in slightly different charts than current definition.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 02, 2016, 11:14:29 PM
Neven, looking at those graph, aside of the incredible heat this winter there is another thing that strikes me and that is how cold August 2013 was when one look at the chart.September 2007 was not too bad either.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 03, 2016, 08:39:50 PM
Another shot from the Canadian weather service site (which I forgot to link in the previous post, but which oversight Neven corrected ;)  )

This one provides a much clearer view of the state of the ice in the Beaufort and Chukchi.

There's also some better detail of the ice quality in the approaches to the Fram.

Striking also to me is the apparent thinness of the ice in Baffin Bay. [edit: - in hindsight, this may actually be increased absorption due to atmospheric moisture]

(Link for reference:  https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_ir_100.jpg )
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on April 03, 2016, 10:46:33 PM
The Terra channel 31 which is also 10.8 -11.3 micrometer brightness is very easily accessible on Worldview where you can flick between days and years. By adjusting the colour scale contrasts can be made to stand out more than in the AVHRR black and white images. Resolution may be higher in AVHRR I'm not sure.
You are right that fog which is warmer than the ice surface can make ice appear warmer than it is. You see the intensity of emission of the fog because it emits more than it absorbs of the ice's emission. But the ice surface which probably has some snow cover is also subject to weather dependent temperature fluctuations, looking through a series of days for any region shows that clearly. But of course thicker ice generally is colder and will be therefore show up distinctly among neighboring thinner ice. How well thickness can be compared with ice in more distant regions which may have experienced different surface temperatures i.e. cooling rates is hard to judge.
But as you can see in the attached image http://go.nasa.gov/22327jV (http://go.nasa.gov/22327jV) last year the ice was colder
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 04, 2016, 05:48:11 AM
AndreasT - Nice!  I really must play more with Worldview.

What does stick out from your post is how much thinner ice is along the eastern end of the NW passage.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 04, 2016, 09:17:17 AM
Have a look at Beaufort and tell us what u see (if u wish). I cant make my browser work with that. It is being colder there lately, and thick ice being imported, but a lot of thin ice too ...
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on April 04, 2016, 11:05:09 AM
The reason for the thinner ice east of Resolute is that it is younger. It has kept moving through most of the winter http://go.nasa.gov/224OkJu (http://go.nasa.gov/224OkJu). Not as fast as at the southern end of Nares strait but enough to form a polynia at times. I think most of the ice from Resolute to Baffin Bay originates from ice that formed on a polynia in the preceding months. At present ice at Resolute isn't moving but you can see the outline of an earlier opening in the warmer probably thinner ice. (please note that the image i linked to in my previous post was from 2015). Younger ice also has less snow on it which also allows its surface to be warmed more by the relatively warm ocean underneath.
seaicesailor: worldview does not work as well with Explorer as has been acknowledged by NASA. I use Firefox but Chrome is also ok. If less detail is needed for larger scale features the AMSR-2 89GHz channel is interesting because it is less susceptible to weather. It still shows day to day changes due to cloud and temperature changes but you can still see movement of recognizable features. Wipneus' animations are of course better, they use data from the same sensor but processed in combination with other channels to remove these temperature, cloud and precipitation effects (not entirely). I just like being able to choose the place I want to look at and move back and forth through the days at my own pace. Unfortunately the AMSR-2 images are only available from Jan. AMSRE images are there from 2002 to Sept 2011.http://go.nasa.gov/224Scu9 (http://go.nasa.gov/224Scu9)
In either case IR or microwave I can't say how thick ice is in absolute terms. I take colder surfaces as an indication of thicker ice underneath (when air temperatures have been lower than water as they are now) all else being equal. I will keep watching and hope to learn more.
In the attached image notice the line of older floes (blues among green ) stretching to the west from the beaufort gyre.. Also the yellow along the western north coast of Alaska which is probably quite thin ice. Landfast ice is reported to be thinner than usual.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 04, 2016, 02:48:27 PM
The reason for the thinner ice east of Resolute is that it is younger. It has kept moving through most of the winter http://go.nasa.gov/224OkJu (http://go.nasa.gov/224OkJu). Not as fast as at the southern end of Nares strait but enough to form a polynia at times. I think most of the ice from Resolute to Baffin Bay originates from ice that formed on a polynia in the preceding months. At present ice at Resolute isn't moving but you can see the outline of an earlier opening in the warmer probably thinner ice. (please note that the image i linked to in my previous post was from 2015). Younger ice also has less snow on it which also allows its surface to be warmed more by the relatively warm ocean underneath.
seaicesailor: worldview does not work as well with Explorer as has been acknowledged by NASA. I use Firefox but Chrome is also ok. If less detail is needed for larger scale features the AMSR-2 89GHz channel is interesting because it is less susceptible to weather. It still shows day to day changes due to cloud and temperature changes but you can still see movement of recognizable features. Wipneus' animations are of course better, they use data from the same sensor but processed in combination with other channels to remove these temperature, cloud and precipitation effects (not entirely). I just like being able to choose the place I want to look at and move back and forth through the days at my own pace. Unfortunately the AMSR-2 images are only available from Jan. AMSRE images are there from 2002 to Sept 2011.http://go.nasa.gov/224Scu9 (http://go.nasa.gov/224Scu9)
In either case IR or microwave I can't say how thick ice is in absolute terms. I take colder surfaces as an indication of thicker ice underneath (when air temperatures have been lower than water as they are now) all else being equal. I will keep watching and hope to learn more.
In the attached image notice the line of older floes (blues among green ) stretching to the west from the beaufort gyre.. Also the yellow along the western north coast of Alaska which is probably quite thin ice. Landfast ice is reported to be thinner than usual.

Thank you!! Now trying with Chrome. Also great analysis in the other thread too, thx.
Much of the "blue" ice in that image is I believe first year ice, I don't think the Gyre brought so much MYI from central Arctic so far! Or maybe yes. Anyway, seems pretty cold. Interesting.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: DavidR on April 04, 2016, 02:57:57 PM
NOAA ESRL Temperature figures for March  are out at:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl)

Globally temperatures were again hottest for March by a significant amount (~0.4 degC).  In the Arctic (67N+) and above 80N, Air Temperatures hottest on record by a small margin,  with SST's hottest or second hottest, as they all have been all year.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: plg on April 04, 2016, 03:05:30 PM
So much thin ice in and in front of Amundsen Bay...  :(

If things get as sunny there as they did last year, early in the melting season, the Pacific side is going to get kick(start)ed hard.

I am confused:

I had to look up  Amundsen Bay... which is in Antarctica, as is Amundsen Sea. However, Amundsen Gulf is in the Canadian archipelago (all according to Wikipedia which admittedly is not always correct).

All these names, really a challenge for my memory as age advances  :o
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 04, 2016, 03:29:04 PM
Ah yes, Gulf, as in oil spill. Sorry about that.  ;D
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Flocke on April 04, 2016, 03:34:55 PM
So much thin ice in and in front of Amundsen Bay...  :(

If things get as sunny there as they did last year, early in the melting season, the Pacific side is going to get kick(start)ed hard.

I am confused:

I had to look up  Amundsen Bay... which is in Antarctica, as is Amundsen Sea. However, Amundsen Gulf is in the Canadian archipelago (all according to Wikipedia which admittedly is not always correct).

All these names, really a challenge for my memory as age advances  :o


Well, I thought about Amundsen Basin (roughly at the pole), but Gulf is much more logical.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 05, 2016, 08:38:24 AM
The March PIOMAS daily numbers have been released:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/more-of-the-usual-hype-about-arctic-sea-ice/#comment-214116 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/more-of-the-usual-hype-about-arctic-sea-ice/#comment-214116)

2016 Day 91 – 22.337 thousand kilometers cubed

Still in 2nd place behind 2011.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 06, 2016, 11:51:07 AM
Is Baffin Bay about to get torched or what (also note the forecast temps around Jakobshavn Isbrae). Here's the climax of the forecast in 5-6 days:

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on April 06, 2016, 03:01:07 PM
Over the last couple of days much of the landfast ice west of Barrow has broken up and drifted off. The large area of open water there despite refreezing now could make a difference when weather starts to warm up
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 06, 2016, 07:07:26 PM
Several cracks are visible during the last couple of days. Most pronounced west and east of Barrow but also east of Resolute. Nevens post wrt the very "warm" weather in Greenland and Labrador Sea should increase the odds for a century break or so in the near future as the ice in the southern part of Okhotsk is dissolving. Ice in Chukchi Sea should probably also take a hit soon.

Of interest is also the eventual prospect with north and northeasterly winds east of Greenland. Will possibly push MYI to the Fram Strait.

If we are going to see a full negative AO soon the Arctic will be in very BIG trouble this summer!! Seems like the atmosphere is trying quite hard to go into a full -AO.

Btw, DMI shows that the temps north of 80oN soon may get negative anomalies for the first time this year!!! http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Michael Hauber on April 07, 2016, 12:19:45 AM
Looks to be a real pause in Arctic temperatures this year.  Spring warming must be a hoax.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Michael Hauber on April 07, 2016, 12:30:33 AM
Is Baffin Bay about to get torched or what (also note the forecast temps around Jakobshavn Isbrae).

Winter has seen a few warm bursts into Baffin area, at the same time Hudson Bay has seemed to cop some of the coldest temperatures for the entire Arctic quite often, and will be well below freezing while Baffin gets torched.  Perhaps Baffin may melt out before Hudson.  If so would that be unusual?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Kate on April 07, 2016, 05:08:58 AM
Over the last couple of days much of the landfast ice west of Barrow has broken up and drifted off. The large area of open water there despite refreezing now could make a difference when weather starts to warm up

Didn't take long at all to clear the ice away again.

Really off topic but I'm curious...has anyone else noticed on the Barrow cam that the house on the far left always has the back door open ( the one leading to the ramp ). I really want to ask why??
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 07, 2016, 09:54:45 AM
Expect a lot more ice-pulling-away-from-the coast as the forecast is for a huge and persistent (!) high-pressure area to form over the Beaufort. I'm seeing 1035-1045 hPa on the ECMWF forecast chart. Will post some images later today.

The temperature anomaly isn't that huge and so temps will remain below zero, but can solar radiation due to clear skies make an impact this early in the melting season?

PS What's wrong with LANCE-MODIS? No Mosaic.  >:( :-\ :'(
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 07, 2016, 11:02:29 AM
Really off topic but I'm curious...has anyone else noticed on the Barrow cam that the house on the far left always has the back door open ( the one leading to the ramp ). I really want to ask why??
i see it closed LOL perhaps i'm just blind or you mean another one
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 07, 2016, 12:14:40 PM
Expect a lot more ice-pulling-away-from-the coast as the forecast is for a huge and persistent (!) high-pressure area to form over the Beaufort. I'm seeing 1035-1045 hPa on the ECMWF forecast chart. Will post some images later today.

The temperature anomaly isn't that huge and so temps will remain below zero, but can solar radiation due to clear skies make an impact this early in the melting season?

PS What's wrong with LANCE-MODIS? No Mosaic.  >:( :-\ :'(

According the classic solar radiation graph, at 70 deg latitude, the solar flux is already at 1/3 to 1/2 of its maximum there. I would expect this time there won't be refreezing in the opened waters.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Kate on April 07, 2016, 12:22:30 PM
Really off topic but I'm curious...has anyone else noticed on the Barrow cam that the house on the far left always has the back door open ( the one leading to the ramp ). I really want to ask why??
i see it closed LOL perhaps i'm just blind or you mean another one

Haha, yes, the far left one circled. It's closed now but I swear it's open more times than not! I see this page at least once a day. Just thought someone else might have noticed :)

On topic, I am getting lost in all the graphs and analysis atm since I'm only a hobbyist but I agree so much heat over winter has to go somewhere and do something. I appreciate all the links posted, they help heaps. Sydney city had its hottest April day on record yesterday. Lots of drought in Australia and the wet season in the NT didn't add up to much. Already getting too warm down here...
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 07, 2016, 12:35:06 PM
Expect a lot more ice-pulling-away-from-the coast as the forecast is for a huge and persistent (!) high-pressure area to form over the Beaufort. I'm seeing 1035-1045 hPa on the ECMWF forecast chart. Will post some images later today.

The temperature anomaly isn't that huge and so temps will remain below zero, but can solar radiation due to clear skies make an impact this early in the melting season?

PS What's wrong with LANCE-MODIS? No Mosaic.  >:( :-\ :'(

Actually this is what happened last year from April 7 to April 30 around Amundsen Gulf. The open waters indeed refreeze, until there is this big detachment around the 20th. Even so, there are signs of weak refreezing until the end of April.

What a different state of Beaufort BTW.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: DavidR on April 07, 2016, 02:12:54 PM
Really off topic but I'm curious...has anyone else noticed on the Barrow cam that the house on the far left always has the back door open ( the one leading to the ramp ). I really want to ask why??
i see it closed LOL perhaps i'm just blind or you mean another one

Haha, yes, the far left one circled. It's closed now but I swear it's open more times than not! I see this page at least once a day. Just thought someone else might have noticed :)

On topic, I am getting lost in all the graphs and analysis atm since I'm only a hobbyist but I agree so much heat over winter has to go somewhere and do something. I appreciate all the links posted, they help heaps. Sydney city had its hottest April day on record yesterday. Lots of drought in Australia and the wet season in the NT didn't add up to much. Already getting too warm down here...
On todays image there appears to be a child opening the door and leaving it open but it  seems to get  shut at night. Perhaps it't just  that a chile who  hasn't learned to  keep the heat in. Besides its clearly  a mudroom more out of the house than in the house.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 07, 2016, 02:15:42 PM
Actually this is what happened last year from April 7 to April 30 around Amundsen Gulf. The open waters indeed refreeze, until there is this big detachment around the 20th. Even so, there are signs of weak refreezing until the end of April.

What a different state of Beaufort BTW.

Thanks, sis (also for the solar radiation graph). Yes, the Beaufort was also hit hard and early last year, but what's coming now seems even worse. I may blog about this if I find the time today...
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Greenbelt on April 07, 2016, 07:26:23 PM
This solar power site allows you to set date and latitude to get the solar radiation potential
http://www.pveducation.org/pvcdrom/properties-of-sunlight/calculation-of-solar-insolation (http://www.pveducation.org/pvcdrom/properties-of-sunlight/calculation-of-solar-insolation)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 07, 2016, 07:33:31 PM
Neven & Co: NSIDC is now out with their analysis for March and winter. One of the more interesting pics they show is the age of the sea ice. According to that pic there is virtually no old ice left in the basin. The oldest ice is now northwest of Greenland and a small strain in Beufort close to the thinnest ice. The ice northeast of Greenland seems to be in a very bad shape. NSIDC also says that FYI in general is 1,5-2,0 m thick.

See attached pic. Courtesy: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Further, snow cover was 2nd lowest March cover for 1967-2016.



Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Meirion on April 07, 2016, 07:39:17 PM
The March 2016 AARI sheep looks like T Rex in this version
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on April 07, 2016, 09:24:10 PM
when sunlight returning to the arctic is discussed I often get the impression that the outgoing longwave radiation is overlooked. When skies are clear a lot of radiation is going out, sunshine has to make up for that loss before the surface stops cooling. This is why ice volume grows until the end of April. Only when incoming radiation exceeds outgoing, does warming start,  apart from heat convected to the Arctic of course. Albedo plays an important part in this because albedo is high for snow and ice reflecting much of the incoming radiation, but albedo is low (snow and ice have high emissivity at 10micrometer) for the long wavelengths at which thermal radiation is going out.
The plots below are small and colour scales not easy to distiguish but I haven't found better ones. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=35555 (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=35555)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 07, 2016, 10:16:07 PM
The sunlight has certainly returned to the Beaufort Sea, and the camera on O-Buoy 13 has defrosted as a consequence:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#OBuoy13 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#OBuoy13)

Note the co-located SIMB 2015J and ITP 88.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 07, 2016, 10:57:33 PM
when sunlight returning to the arctic is discussed I often get the impression that the outgoing longwave radiation is overlooked. When skies are clear a lot of radiation is going out, sunshine has to make up for that loss before the surface stops cooling. This is why ice volume grows until the end of April. Only when incoming radiation exceeds outgoing, does warming start,  apart from heat convected to the Arctic of course. Albedo plays an important part in this because albedo is high for snow and ice reflecting much of the incoming radiation, but albedo is low (snow and ice have high emissivity at 10micrometer) for the long wavelengths at which thermal radiation is going out.

Let's assume this high pressure area over the Beaufort is going to pull the ice away from the coast big time. What do you expect what will happen after that? Freeze over? Or is the incoming shortwave radiation enough to offset the outgoing longwave radiation? Or won't there simply be enough open water, high enough temperatures, and not enough light/Sun too low?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on April 08, 2016, 12:15:26 AM
You know how the Arctic can surprise us, but I would find it surprising if open water expands in Beaufort much before the end of April. In recent years openings only stay open when the adjoining land starts to loose its snow cover and warms up air blowing over the sea. Of course any freezing will get weaker and weaker until then.
Obuoy13 illustrates the issue of radiation balance well I think. Despite the image showing clear sky, its position at 75N 160W has been clear April 2 and 3 (from modis) and cloudy in the last couple of days. This is reflected in the temperature fluctuations on clear days and higher temperatures with less sunshine (less diurnal fluctuation) the key is the higher windspeed und the southerly direction.
I just want to caution against raising expectations.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 08, 2016, 12:25:26 AM
Thanks, Andreas, that's very helpful.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on April 08, 2016, 12:55:12 AM
This is a guess but looking at the ice age map on NSIDC and some of the thickness maps give some backing for this: There is a band of old floes but it is more scattered than last year and fairly narrow.
Chuckchi is weak in the east and strong in the west (which will melt in the summer too). Weather is key as always, there will be open water, how much dammage this will do depends how soon and how thrings spread from there. Looking back I am struck how weak the ice was in 2013 at this time, and how that turned out.
Attached is AMSR-2 from worldview and I do not claim to fully be able to "read" this.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: DrTskoul on April 08, 2016, 01:26:24 AM
This is a guess but looking at the ice age map on NSIDC and some of the thickness maps give some backing for this: There is a band of old floes but it is more scattered than last year and fairly narrow.
Chuckchi is weak in the east and strong in the west (which will melt in the summer too). Weather is key as always, there will be open water, how much dammage this will do depends how soon and how thrings spread from there. Looking back I am struck how weak the ice was in 2013 at this time, and how that turned out.
Attached is AMSR-2 from worldview and I do not claim to fully be able to "read" this.

We need more of these annotations !! Nifty Andreas...

-Tasos
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 08, 2016, 02:00:18 AM
Well, I've found some time and wrote a blog post on the ASIB: Beaufort under early pressure (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/04/beaufort-under-early-pressure.html)

You know how the Arctic can surprise us, but I would find it surprising if open water expands in Beaufort much before the end of April. In recent years openings only stay open when the adjoining land starts to loose its snow cover and warms up air blowing over the sea. Of course any freezing will get weaker and weaker until then.
My blog post is also partly about what will happen to the snow in Alaska, given the current temperature forecast:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fneven1.typepad.com%2F.a%2F6a0133f03a1e37970b01b8d1ba40ed970c-800wi&hash=78708db2cd04fd28357bcca01e031e5d)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: slow wing on April 08, 2016, 03:41:06 AM
Thank you, Neven. Your write-ups are superb!
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 08, 2016, 09:58:53 AM
The euro blow torches NA.

Snow cover in Canada would be decimated

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FTfREKVq.jpg&hash=b1b288d1c23ba5f55846a6cb90e89c86)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 08, 2016, 10:15:30 AM
Thank you, Neven. Your write-ups are superb!

Thanks, slow wing. I know it's early times and nothing may happen, but I'm expecting a lot of movement on the Pacific/American side of the Arctic, and so I had to write about it.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 08, 2016, 01:08:00 PM
Expect more piling-up of ice in ESS according to the maps Jim Hunt shows at the Barneo thread
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1505.msg73386.html#msg73386 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1505.msg73386.html#msg73386)

The strong drift ceases abruptly there
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: pauldry600 on April 08, 2016, 05:08:22 PM
From the Atlantic end here in North Western Europe looks like a period of stagnation this side for about 10 days to compensate your end

Great images guys

Climate Reanalyzer is my favorite website.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 08, 2016, 09:21:48 PM
The euro blow torches NA.

Snow cover in Canada would be decimated


I anticipate majorly increased early flow in the drainages, especially the Mackenzie.  Signs of it won't reach the delta for a week to ten days or so however.  We should watch for it around then.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 08, 2016, 09:55:36 PM
Some images.  First is the Barents between Svalbard and Franz Joseph, visible light.  The ice there is probably at most got a week to survive. It is obviously getting torn apart and attacked from both above and below.

Second is band-31 temperature sensing of the approaches to the Fram - which I've used instead of visible, as it tends to cut through the cloud cover.  Again, the ice there is being torn up pretty badly.

It will be very vulnerable to the developing Greenland high pressure system.

(Almost forgot - the band-31 image has the pallet compressed to about 230K to 275K.  You can clearly see the northern coast of Greenland; Svalbard is to the right under the much hotter cloud cover.)

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_Brightness_Temp_Band31_Night(min=236.3,max=281.2,squash),Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2016-04-07&v=-779972.2641164958,-1239763.184045607,1614139.7358835042,-105171.18404560699
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: TerryM on April 08, 2016, 11:43:44 PM
Tomorrow is day 100 of 2016 - and temperatures above 80 have never touched normal yet this year!
I'd checked every year since 1958 & 2012 was the only one that came anywhere close. Another way of looking at it is that north of 80 degrees, the temperatures have been like April since the year began.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php)

100 days & counting.

Terry
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: cesium62 on April 09, 2016, 12:36:53 AM
the adjoining land starts to loose its snow cover

[In case anyone was wondering, "Loose" and "lose" are neither homonyms nor synonyms.]
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: oren on April 09, 2016, 01:10:50 AM
Tomorrow is day 100 of 2016 - and temperatures above 80 have never touched normal yet this year!
I'd checked every year since 1958 & 2012 was the only one that came anywhere close. Another way of looking at it is that north of 80 degrees, the temperatures have been like April since the year began.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php)

100 days & counting.

Terry

That chart looks scary when compared to other years. Perhaps the new normal has arrived?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 09, 2016, 04:28:13 AM
The euro blow torches NA.

Snow cover in Canada would be decimated


I anticipate majorly increased early flow in the drainages, especially the Mackenzie.  Signs of it won't reach the delta for a week to ten days or so however.  We should watch for it around then.
if the pattern we are seeing the next week or two materializes into May.

The melt season would start at an unprecedented early time and rate of change.

Solar insolation is already very strong by May 1st.

We could theoretically see surface melt into the basin by then if snow cover on land is already melted to the coast.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: NeilT on April 09, 2016, 10:02:26 AM
If you look at the barrow webcam and pan it all the way right, you see that snow is already melting and ponding.  It's 0F-5F there at the moment so the second the sun goes down it freezes over.

The mass balance page shows the snow has vanished and the thickness has recorded it's first drop of the season.

Which is a bit dramatic for this time of year.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 09, 2016, 11:02:05 AM
On the environment Canada page in the Yukon if you compare recent years or pretty much any year with snow depth data many cities melt out typically between April 20th and May 1st.

This year everywhere was already melted out. 

Many cities typically have 30-40CM left right now.


Because of this low temps are running well above normal while high temps are closer.

Cities at 62N on Permafrost that average below freezing lows until mid May are having NNE winds and lows of 1-2C.

Ridiculous.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on April 09, 2016, 12:25:45 PM
these IR images from world view http://go.nasa.gov/1VGGrtC (http://go.nasa.gov/1VGGrtC) compare Beaufort and Bering
Bering shows what difference loss of snow cover makes on land (temperature scale compressed to 230 -285K) those yellows are at the top of that brightness temperature. In this daytime image, ice and water are indistinguishable ("cl" marks clouds) showing ice is not far from melting point (temperature drops at night). In those conditions the water opened by winds is not freezing over and the ice drifting south won't last long.
In Beaufort temperatures are still low, ice is cold and where it drifts from the coast water still freezes over. But there are southfacing slopes which are warming up and with warmer air from the south that picture will change.
Friv: could you explain more what "euro blow torches NA"  means? I am looking at 850Hpa temperatures for advection but don't see it.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 09, 2016, 07:21:01 PM
Here's some bonus material that wasn't included in my last ASIB blog post, snow cover in Alaska in the past two weeks (I'm curious to see how this animation will look next week):
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on April 09, 2016, 11:30:18 PM
Sentinel 1A has a nice shot of Amundsen Gulf in Beaufort http://www.polarview.aq/images/106_S1jpgsmall/201604/S1A_EW_GRDM_1SDH_20160409T151145_B7FD_N_1.jpg (http://www.polarview.aq/images/106_S1jpgsmall/201604/S1A_EW_GRDM_1SDH_20160409T151145_B7FD_N_1.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: oren on April 10, 2016, 01:46:47 AM
Here's some bonus material that wasn't included in my last ASIB blog post, snow cover in Alaska in the past two weeks (I'm curious to see how this animation will look next week):

Great animation. That snow-free front in Canada has been advancing very quickly.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 10, 2016, 05:50:32 AM
What's happening in the Beaufort is pretty impressive.

I've captured 8 days of images, using band31-night, with the temperature palette reduced to 230-273K

At the start (4/2), its pretty obvious that the temperatures are fairly low - 243 to 253K / -30 to -20C.

However, as the cracking event progresses, it's clear how extensively it affects the pack as the open sea starts dumping heat into the atmosphere.  By the end, temperatures over large stretches are running above -10C, and the cracking has spread to the Chukchi/CAB proper, if you follow the temperature signatures up and to the right. (images will be across two posts.)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 10, 2016, 05:52:19 AM
Second of series.  The Beaufort "Grinder" is now fully active.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 10, 2016, 10:51:54 AM
Wow, that looks cool.  8)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Laurent on April 10, 2016, 10:56:32 AM
Cool may not be the good word... I would say hot, oufff, very hot... we are living interesting time !
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on April 10, 2016, 11:08:52 AM
Obuoy14 which is near the upper centre of these images at roughly 75.5N 150W shows how this looks at ground level. Increasing sunshine brings daytime temperatures up to  -10degC and although clear nights bring large drops minimum temperatures are also rising.
This could well be a sign of the latent heat transfered from those opening leads into the atmosphere.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 10, 2016, 01:34:28 PM
The Beaufort "Grinder" is now fully active.

Coincidentally:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#Beaufort (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#Beaufort)

Click all the way through to Worldview to check out the adjacent snow cover. See also:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/beaufort-sea-ice-graphs/ (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/beaufort-sea-ice-graphs/)

Is the concentration really that bad across the Beaufort?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 10, 2016, 04:35:21 PM
Here are the results of my own recent research into suspiciously selective reporting in certain quarters of the cryospheric blogosphere:

"The Awful Terrible Horrible Arctic Sea Ice Crisis (http://greatwhitecon.info/2016/04/the-awful-terrible-horrible-arctic-sea-ice-crisis/)"

Quote
As our regular reader(s) will be aware, Anthony Watts has been plagiarising our content and republishing it on his “Watts Up With That” blog. In a perplexing perversity he has also been refusing to publish content that we have happily contributed to the very same blog.

Many thanks to Wipneus for his assistance with Python processing of the raw data. Here's the preliminary results:
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 10, 2016, 07:07:42 PM
A bit something on flawed data to not loose the bigger picture as to progress of melting this early in the season.
Perhaps it's just me but one of my key data providers always fails around the interesting dated of the years, last
year it was JASMES  8)

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1457.msg73561.html#msg73561 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1457.msg73561.html#msg73561)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 10, 2016, 08:11:52 PM
The Beaufort "Grinder" is now fully active.

Is the concentration really that bad across the Beaufort?

Concentration?  No.  Ice integrity?  Yes.  That's the cause of my "grinder" observation.

The impact of what's happening now won't be felt for another 6-10 weeks, I'd say. That also presumes a continuation of the kind of weather which has been typical this season.

Your additional images foreshadow a bit of what I think we can expect.

(BTW - I want to extend a thank you to Andreas T for showing me/us the thermal imaging layers available in Worldview.  Very useful!)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 10, 2016, 08:19:38 PM
Here are the results of my own recent research into suspiciously selective reporting in certain quarters of the cryospheric blogosphere:

"The Awful Terrible Horrible Arctic Sea Ice Crisis (http://greatwhitecon.info/2016/04/the-awful-terrible-horrible-arctic-sea-ice-crisis/)"

Quote
As our regular reader(s) will be aware, Anthony Watts has been plagiarising our content and republishing it on his “Watts Up With That” blog. In a perplexing perversity he has also been refusing to publish content that we have happily contributed to the very same blog.

Many thanks to Wipneus for his assistance with Python processing of the raw data. Here's the preliminary results:

How charming of him.  Keep at him, Jim.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 10, 2016, 09:21:35 PM
According to Judah Cohen the split of the polar vortex have rendered a highly unusual growth of the snow cover during the last weeks. Going from very low to very high relative the last 10 years. Only the season 2012-2013 had a larger snowcover at thistime in April....

The big question is whether this will have any significant effect on the melting season.

For those who are new here, the melting season of 2013 was avery boring one but very good for the sea ice.

Best, LMV
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on April 10, 2016, 09:29:23 PM
According to Judah Cohen the split of the polar vortex have rendered a highly unusual growth of the snow cover during the last weeks. Going from very low to very high relative the last 10 years. Only the season 2012-2013 had a larger snowcover at thistime in April....

The big question is whether this will have any significant effect on the melting season.

For those who are new here, the melting season of 2013 was avery boring one but very good for the sea ice.

Best, LMV

Interesting
given difference between
(https://www.ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/nh_sce.png)
and
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.star.nesdis.noaa.gov%2Fsmcd%2Femb%2Fsnow%2Fplots%2Fdaily_snow_extent%2Fmultisensor_4km_nh_snow_extent_by_year_graph.png&hash=c8c93c5f86894e9eadb1e8760de62287)

I was wondering if there were sensor issues with the latter as well as CT & NSIDC

Edit: Rutgers doesn't seem to show a dramatic change either see
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2016&ui_day=100&ui_set=2 (http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2016&ui_day=100&ui_set=2)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on April 10, 2016, 09:51:11 PM
https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/polar-vortex-april-2016-cold-outbreak-east

seems rather like it is mainly concerned with East coast of US and Canada.

That area has gone from negative to positive on Rutgers. Sorry if I wrongly thought global in response to what I had seen instead of checking more carefully before reacting.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on April 10, 2016, 10:08:18 PM
The environment Canada graph stops 6 days short of the NOAA one and comparison is made with different range of years, so the two graphs are not contradicting each other (yet).
The uptick is mostly in Eurasia according to the NOAA site http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html (http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html). The snowline there is some way from the arctic ocean so would have little effect there if it is shortlived I think.

sorry should have looked at your Rutgers link before posting. Eurasian increase is mainly in the Himalayas (or Hindukush?), some way from arctic, but I seem to recall lots of snow there last year too.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on April 10, 2016, 10:32:54 PM
The environment Canada graph stops 6 days short of the NOAA one and comparison is made with different range of years, so the two graphs are not contradicting each other (yet).

Comparison is made with different range of years - certainly.

6 days short - How does that work? Red line (on both) seems to display at least a week of April? I have no information to say you are wrong just curious if it is displaying a 2 week average or plotted at wrong date or I am misunderstanding date labels or something.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on April 10, 2016, 10:38:24 PM
I am just taking the date at the bottom right corner of the environment Canada graph: 2016-04-03
could it be they just update weekly?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on April 10, 2016, 10:47:02 PM
I am just taking the date at the bottom right corner of the environment Canada graph: 2016-04-03
could it be they just update weekly?

I see Last update Apr 9, 2016 on one and 2016-04-09 in corner of the other. Try a browser refresh?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 10, 2016, 11:26:29 PM
I've been looking at this too the past few says, and assumed the sudden uptick is a glitch.

Here's an animation for the entire NH. There's some snow popping up here and there, on the US east coast and in southern China (is that Himalayas?), but with all that snow disappearing in western Russia and elsewhere, I don't really see where the growth has come from:
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 10, 2016, 11:28:56 PM
Here's another animation only showing days 86 and 100. The graph is from the same source, but they're not showing the same thing, I think:

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 10, 2016, 11:40:35 PM
I've been looking at this too the past few says, and assumed the sudden uptick is a glitch.
Concur.  Considering current conditions, hard to imagine snow cover is doing anything other than declining.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: charles_oil on April 11, 2016, 12:15:12 AM
Roll-on Monday... maybe NSIDC Arctic & Antarctic, and the Snow cover will get sorted / corrected and we can get back to watching the (probably rather rapid) decline !
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 11, 2016, 12:34:25 AM
use the link in post 269 and you can watch without issues :-)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: ktonine on April 11, 2016, 01:00:02 AM
I've been looking at this too the past few says, and assumed the sudden uptick is a glitch.
Concur.  Considering current conditions, hard to imagine snow cover is doing anything other than declining.

I live in one of the affected areas - southern Wisconsin, USA.  Snow has indeed returned, albeit small, almost trace amounts, but it seems like it's been snowing for about a week straight - total accumulation amounts to zero.  It snows enough to cover the ground. It melts.  Rinse. Repeat. Temperatures have seemed to have stuck at freezing for that time.

So, I can easily imagine that large swaths of the north central plains/Great Lakes region are experiencing something similar.  It won't affect arctic sea ice since we're in the 40s latitude-wise, but it is kind of weird and out of place.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: pauldry600 on April 11, 2016, 02:50:17 AM
Sea Ice seems to have grown due to a sensory fault similar to rainfall radars.

This isnt the case

Ice is fairly stagnant and slow decline at present
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 11, 2016, 10:38:06 AM
these IR images from world view http://go.nasa.gov/1VGGrtC (http://go.nasa.gov/1VGGrtC) compare Beaufort and Bering
Bering shows what difference loss of snow cover makes on land (temperature scale compressed to 230 -285K) those yellows are at the top of that brightness temperature. In this daytime image, ice and water are indistinguishable ("cl" marks clouds) showing ice is not far from melting point (temperature drops at night). In those conditions the water opened by winds is not freezing over and the ice drifting south won't last long.
In Beaufort temperatures are still low, ice is cold and where it drifts from the coast water still freezes over. But there are southfacing slopes which are warming up and with warmer air from the south that picture will change.
Friv: could you explain more what "euro blow torches NA"  means? I am looking at 850Hpa temperatures for advection but don't see it.

Blow torch is slang for well above normal warmth.

The models have backed off a bit from setting up the persistent ridging they were showing. But recent Runs of the euro show extensively highly anomolous warm air advection into  the Northern sections of NA.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FVfV1g6P.jpg&hash=bb80ed39952630e08da41f103a93ac6b)

 This run of the euro showed 20C+ above normal 850mb temps pushing into far Northern Canada.

That's pretty much epic and would be historically warm if it actually verified.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F8mUStNY.jpg&hash=d053bf65e34b9f89d5a112808fc67e86)

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 11, 2016, 10:50:27 AM
When comparing 12-13 with 15-16 on the snow cover graphic it's pretty obvious something is way off.

I hope Mr. Cohen didn't blindly reference that graphic without doing any double checking.



(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F51D5lYU.jpg&hash=e87f12e3d53cf17512fe372ea6183b1b)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 11, 2016, 11:10:09 AM
For those who are new here, the melting season of 2013 was avery boring one but very good for the sea ice.

For those who are new here, the melting season of 2013 was a very interesting one:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2013/09/hello-world/ (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2013/09/hello-world/)

Best,

Snow White

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Anne on April 11, 2016, 04:56:44 PM
Quote
For those who are new here, the melting season of 2013 was a very interesting one:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2013/09/hello-world/ (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2013/09/hello-world/)

Best,

Snow White
David, not Jack.  ;)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 11, 2016, 09:10:48 PM
Friv and others: actually, it seems as Mr Cohen indeed did tweet without doing any double check. You can find the tweet and the ongoing discussion at: https://twitter.com/judah47/status/719129653080952833 (https://twitter.com/judah47/status/719129653080952833)

Btw, speaking about blowtorch in Greenland,due to foehn Kangerlussuaq measured a maximum temperature of 17,8oC today. Very close to the april record of 18,0oC from 1999. May be even higher if the foehn effect continues during evening. Should see some melting there soon.

Best, LMV
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: opensheart on April 11, 2016, 09:14:28 PM
We just drove from Cincinnati to Washinton DC over April 8 - 10, 2016.
The weather was really weird.   Sat Morning we had snow in and around DC,  But by afternoon one could go outside with a light jacket.
When we drove on the 10th we could see that the mountains of West Virgina had partial snow on them, that wasn't there on 8th.    partial snow in that it was not a continous blanket.   The tops of things melted off quick, but the sides and shadows had snow.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 11, 2016, 09:36:49 PM
David, not Jack.  ;)

Not A Lot Of People Know That (http://greatwhitecon.info/tag/paul-homewood/)!

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 11, 2016, 10:10:05 PM
Friv and others: actually, it seems as Mr Cohen indeed did tweet without doing any double check. You can find the tweet and the ongoing discussion at: https://twitter.com/judah47/status/719129653080952833 (https://twitter.com/judah47/status/719129653080952833)

I took the liberty of Tweeting this to Judah:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/719618087205605376
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 11, 2016, 11:37:35 PM
Could it be that the automatic Multisensor thingy also relies on the failed sensor aboard DMSP F17?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 11, 2016, 11:43:31 PM
Slightly more on-topic now, the Beaufort Gyre is having a first, early effect on SIA numbers in the Beaufort Sea:
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 12, 2016, 09:55:23 AM
Automated multisensor thingy has been fixed:
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on April 12, 2016, 10:14:29 AM
Could it be that the automatic Multisensor thingy also relies on the failed sensor aboard DMSP F17?

They use the microwave instruments onboard the DMSP satellites so it's pretty likely they're seeing similar problems.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 12, 2016, 10:34:59 AM
Automated multisensor thingy has been fixed:

Only by truncation to March 31st! An in depth analysis:

"Satellite Problems With Arctic Sea Ice Measurement (http://greatwhitecon.info/2016/04/satellite-problems-with-arctic-sea-ice-measurement/)"

Quote
Skeptical sorts across the cryoblogosphere are in meltdown mode at the moment. They seem to be unaware that satellites don’t last forever in the harsh environment of space, and the individual scientific instruments carried by a satellite don’t either. Some failures are more spectacular than others however.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 12, 2016, 09:22:30 PM
ECMWF 12z run is bad news for the sea ice and should render a lot of ice transport through Fram Strait if verified. Beaufort ice will be under pressure too. And at +240 hours the ECMWF has a ridiculous +8oC at 850 hPa-level at Alaskas west coast  :o

In 2006, the SIE according to IJIS was 12,44 Mn km2 so I think there is a decent chance that we might drop just below 12,5 Mn km2by April 30.

Best, LMV
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: charles_oil on April 13, 2016, 01:35:56 AM
Oh dear.... NSIDC has suspended and removed April data

Quote
"Sensor on F-17 experiencing difficulties, sea ice time series temporarily suspended

April 12, 2016   
 
NSIDC has suspended daily sea ice extent updates until further notice, due to issues with the satellite data used to produce these images................. " see site for rest - looks like it will be off-line for a while.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/)


Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 13, 2016, 01:47:39 AM
 
Oh dear.... NSIDC has suspended and removed April data

Quote
"Sensor on F-17 experiencing difficulties, sea ice time series temporarily suspended

:'(
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 13, 2016, 06:33:35 AM


The pattern is really bad and is going to get worse.

Even tho direct melt isn't going to take place thickening can be slowed and or stopped and flushing will get rid of thicker ice for thin ice that won't thicken up much at this point.

Solar insolation is ramping up big time and it won't be long before it starts warming the ice.

Or causing the top snow layer to get wetter or break down and lower albedo that will positive feedback with a constant ridge.

Once albedo drops the break through towards warming the ice and lower troposphere near the surface will be underway.

By May 1st solar insolation is strong enough to do this if the colder air is kept at bay over Siberia and NA.


I will assume at this point the pattern will breakdown before the melt season starts.




If not then unprecedented melting will commence in May.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 13, 2016, 09:01:12 AM
JD - Fear not. Wipneus is with us. So is SHIZUKU. Unfortunately so is Prof. Judy:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/satellite-problems-with-arctic-sea-ice-measurement/#comment-214236 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/satellite-problems-with-arctic-sea-ice-measurement/#comment-214236)

Friv - An glimpse of current Greenland albedo:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fforum.arctic-sea-ice.net%2Findex.php%3Faction%3Ddlattach%3Btopic%3D1465.0%3Battach%3D27838%3Bimage&hash=14536290cf952f977ac8c95021ad83e9)

Plus an example of current Beaufort Sea albedo:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#Beaufort (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#Beaufort)

Click through to Worldview and examine the adjacent snow cover also.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Laurent on April 13, 2016, 09:32:09 AM
Temperatures are set for melting, not much for the moment thought.
http://go.nasa.gov/1SyDbLF (http://go.nasa.gov/1SyDbLF)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 13, 2016, 11:41:37 AM
JD - Fear not. Wipneus is with us. So is SHIZUKU. Unfortunately so is Prof. Judy:

...

Plus an example of current Beaufort Sea albedo:

Click through to Worldview and examine the adjacent snow cover also.

Temperatures are set for melting, not much for the moment thought.
...

I wonder if you guys could you do something similar for Chukchi sea. In Worldview a growing opening of water can be seen but it is through clouds. I wonder what can be seen with IR layers, but I still can not make it work with my damn PC (chrome or explorer no matter!). I can only view the Terra/Aqua optical layers.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 13, 2016, 12:42:07 PM
The euro is really trying to start the melt season with a bang.

April 23rd is to early to cause surface melt even with widespread clear skies.

But if this is a preview of May and June watch out.

That is very reminescent of the record warm July 2015


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FNYlA8BY.jpg&hash=af62282493e84b4a2eb212b3c86e926c)


Someone tell me I am missing something here.  The color scale looks exactly the same.

What's the difference?  Why is last year feature much lower heights.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fz5am2iG.jpg&hash=e1fd76e008a4fe4719399c9c587b766b)



Looking back through the archives. 2005 had a great pattern for melt from mid May through early August.

What's really notable is the epic late July torching.

But inspire of this melt was slow to get underway in May where as years like 2008 and 2015 had less conducive solar patterns.

But 2015 had major land to ice warm intrusions.

Also 2005 had lower heights over the CAA region and GIS.

This proves to be a huge deal because it stopped NA side land warmth intrusions.

Also ice age probably played a huge  role.

Anyone have 2005 snow cover on ice data?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Laurent on April 13, 2016, 01:03:01 PM
This is Chukchi as requested :
http://go.nasa.gov/1V0SB1S (http://go.nasa.gov/1V0SB1S)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Acts5v29 on April 13, 2016, 02:41:37 PM
Oh dear.... NSIDC has suspended and removed April data

Quote
"Sensor on F-17 experiencing difficulties, sea ice time series temporarily suspended

April 12, 2016   
 
NSIDC has suspended daily sea ice extent updates until further notice, due to issues with the satellite data used to produce these images................. " see site for rest - looks like it will be off-line for a while.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/)

I had wondered...  a rise of 600,000 km2 at this time seemed """unusual""" (we just couldn't be that fortunate) and it seemed like it must be a satellite problem
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 13, 2016, 03:20:27 PM
This is Chukchi as requested :
http://go.nasa.gov/1V0SB1S (http://go.nasa.gov/1V0SB1S)
Big thanks! The link worked. I can even browse images (should I keep this chrome window open forever? lol)

Anyway I compared April 1 (first shot) with April 12, and, apart from the opening along the Beaufort coast, there is a big yellow-red area Northwest of Alaska. Each give its own interpretation.

What surprises me is that blue band north of Beaufort sea that is supposed to be old or thick ice. However neither Piomas or Cryosat or SMOS shows thick ice over there (the last two quite the contrary!).
Should that be thicker snow cover in that area?


Apparently not:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,587.msg73765.html#msg73765 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,587.msg73765.html#msg73765)

(the animation may need a click to start)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 13, 2016, 08:24:57 PM
in all the mess throughout the many graphs i thought i'll post again one of the few that not only contains the
the correct, but the flawed lines as well, just to shed a bit more light on to the contradicting information around.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 13, 2016, 09:22:03 PM
The euro is really trying to start the melt season with a bang.

April 23rd is to early to cause surface melt even with widespread clear skies.

It's kind of crazy to see such a persistent high-pressure area. And indeed, if this would happen any time during summer, it'd be a massacre.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 13, 2016, 10:22:12 PM
The euro is really trying to start the melt season with a bang.

April 23rd is to early to cause surface melt even with widespread clear skies.

It's kind of crazy to see such a persistent high-pressure area. And indeed, if this would happen any time during summer, it'd be a massacre.
You may have just written an epitaph.

[edit] Climate Reanalyzer has the weather showing no mercy - the high pressure actually intensifies and expands by the end of the week.  Looking at the snow cover forecast, that's also getting obliterated.  The snow line is forecast to retreat rapidly North all the way to Great Slave Lake by the end of the week.  The changes in Siberia and Alaska are similarly rapid.  There looks to be a lot of water about to be dumped into Arctic drainages.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on April 14, 2016, 01:49:26 AM
If the JAXA AMSR2 SIE from Magnamentus is correct then we are approximately 17 days ahead of the 2015 ice melt season.

[Attached image 1 SIE with "you are here"]

EOSDIS near Svalbard edge breakup from 4/8 to 4/12

[Attached images 2 and 3]

Forecast of winds in the region facilitate more breakup through 4/18, image from models 4/15 (25kt surface winds shown)

[Attached image 4]

Friv knows the story about the model forecast for high pressure through 4/20 and it is not pretty
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 14, 2016, 02:15:22 AM
If the JAXA AMSR2 SIE from Magnamentus is correct then we are approximately 17 days ahead of the 2015 ice melt season.

[Attached image 1 SIE with "you are here"]

EOSDIS near Svalbard edge breakup from 4/8 to 4/12

[Attached images 2 and 3]

Forecast of winds in the region facilitate more breakup through 4/18, image from models 4/15 (25kt surface winds shown)

[Attached image 4]

Friv knows the story about the model forecast for high pressure through 4/20 and it is not pretty
That same high pressure system - which appears to be strengthening and enlarging - will be shoving ice out of the CAB across warm water NW of Svalbard, and out of the Fram and Victoria straits.  As pointed out, most of that will be 2nd year ice.  Even this early in the season, I don't think it will survive long.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 14, 2016, 02:37:31 AM
On the other side of the CAA, the ice in the Beaufort is surrendering to the force applied to it by high pressure in the CAB.  Cracking event, starting about the 10th.  About 100,000KM2 of ice breaking off the central pack and joining the Beaufort circulation, in 4 images.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 14, 2016, 10:27:13 AM
On the other side of the CAA, the ice in the Beaufort is surrendering to the force applied to it by high pressure in the CAB.

You may be interested to discover that this news is spreading in Snow White's scientific circles:

https://twitter.com/icey_mark/status/720469805690658816
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Acts5v29 on April 14, 2016, 11:05:24 AM

 
NSIDC has suspended daily sea ice extent updates until further notice, due to issues with the satellite data used to produce these images................. " see site for rest - looks like it will be off-line for a while.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/)

Incidentally, what is the time wait for a new satellite?  or for a re-orbiting of one which can provide at least some of CryoSat-2's data?

We have already lost the early April data and cannot get it back - it is not wise to be blind for too long in a climate crisis like this one
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: DavidR on April 14, 2016, 11:13:08 AM

 
NSIDC has suspended daily sea ice extent updates until further notice, due to issues with the satellite data used to produce these images................. " see site for rest - looks like it will be off-line for a while.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/)

Incidentally, what is the time wait for a new satellite?  or for a re-orbiting of one which can provide at least some of CryoSat-2's data?

We have already lost the early April data and cannot get it back - it is not wise to be blind for too long in a climate crisis like this one

My  understanding is that they are currently recalibrating against data from the DMSP F-18  satellite. Once the data has been calibrated they will provide an updated dataset including all the April data.  In the mean time we have Espen keeping  us informed with IJIS.  So we are not,  like some people totally in the dark.

Check the link in the original post.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Acts5v29 on April 14, 2016, 11:20:43 AM

Incidentally, what is the time wait for a new satellite?  or for a re-orbiting of one which can provide at least some of CryoSat-2's data?


My  understanding is that they are currently recalibrating against data from the DMSP F-18  satellite. Once the data has been calibrated they will provide an updated dataset including all the April data.  In the mean time we have Espen keeping  us informed with IJIS.  So we are not,  like some people totally in the dark.


There no cure for some people's blindness.  Good to hear that there isn't going to be a hole in the data - thanks for your help.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 14, 2016, 12:02:53 PM

 
NSIDC has suspended daily sea ice extent updates until further notice, due to issues with the satellite data used to produce these images................. " see site for rest - looks like it will be off-line for a while.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/)

Incidentally, what is the time wait for a new satellite?  or for a re-orbiting of one which can provide at least some of CryoSat-2's data?

we're not blind at all, if you look at my post not above you'll have not only a clear impression of the situation but can assume that those graphs are based on data that recently gave me the clear impression that they are even more accurate than those widely used. i think that Uni-Hamburg data and Jaxa data together are providing a perfect image. below please find today's images:


We have already lost the early April data and cannot get it back - it is not wise to be blind for too long in a climate crisis like this one
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 14, 2016, 12:21:02 PM
We are not,  like some people totally in the dark.

I'm attempting to arrange an interview with somebody from the NSIDC regarding both the F-17 issue and the current state of the Beaufort Sea ice. More news on that front as and when they wake up in Boulder.

Meanwhile would it surprise you to learn that several of the usual suspects have been surreally suggesting that "Global sea ice makes a strong comeback!". Willard Watts has been censoring comments from both Neven and I arguing the contrary case. I'm afraid "Snow White" wasn't inclined to take that load of old ballcocks lying down. Read all about it at:

Global Sea Ice “Comeback” Conspiracy (http://greatwhitecon.info/2016/04/global-sea-ice-comeback-conspiracy/)

Quote
Both Prof. Curry and non Prof. Watts adorned their “Tweets” with a graph allegedly comparing “global temperature” with “tropical temperature”, but provided no graph of “polar temperature”. To remedy that (no doubt?) inadvertent oversight here is one we prepared earlier:
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Buddy on April 14, 2016, 01:11:55 PM
Quote
Meanwhile would it surprise you to learn that several of the usual suspects have been surreally suggesting that "Global sea ice makes a strong comeback!".

I think they're all on the same email group from HQ (Koch Brothers:).  Another site.....which I have posted to has the same thing.  Of course.....they did the same thing in the other "recovery periods) as well in prior years.

I think they will be much more persistent this year.....especially in the US.....as this is an election year.  The fossil fuel companies and their paid bloggers are pushing (lying) hard...even when it makes no sense whatever.  Koch/Watts/others can only keep the sunshine of truth hidden for so long....  I encourage others to post FACTS and SCIENCE to their sites.....
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: pauldry600 on April 14, 2016, 01:32:35 PM
In the event that all the ice is gone in late August and early September (bar the bit north of Greenland) what will we have to talk about?

Will all your wonderful posts be just of sea?

Dont melt sea ice! Im addicted to you.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 14, 2016, 02:00:23 PM
I encourage others to post FACTS and SCIENCE to their sites.....

I'm happy to oblige Buddy:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/beaufort-sea-ice-graphs/#Area (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/beaufort-sea-ice-graphs/#Area)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Buddy on April 14, 2016, 02:12:33 PM
Quote
http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/beaufort-sea-ice-graphs/#Area

Nice chart.  I did NOT realize Beaufort was off to such a bad start....  Not good.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 14, 2016, 02:21:22 PM
I encourage others to post FACTS and SCIENCE to their sites.....

I'm happy to oblige Buddy:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/beaufort-sea-ice-graphs/#Area (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/beaufort-sea-ice-graphs/#Area)

From posts above, apparently we have a week more of this pushing Beaufort and Chukchi ice away from the continent.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 14, 2016, 03:14:53 PM
From posts above, apparently we have a week more of this pushing Beaufort and Chukchi ice away from the continent.

Yes, and with pressures in the 1035-1040 hPa range. That's what so insane about this whole event, it just keeps going. I'm going to try and do an update on the ASIB later today.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 14, 2016, 04:22:14 PM
what do the pros here thing about the theory that the fact that sea-ice is in great parts not homogeneous (fractured) would help that the wind driven movement opens greater gaps (beaufort sea for example right now)

this would reduce albedo as a consequence.

one could assume that, considering the sea-ice area calculations, that due to that condition of the ice over large parts in the arctic once could call it "fake area" meaning that large arts are indeed ice covered but so thin that are will drop at high speed or as we already see stay low in the first place. i'm sure that one of you scientist, basic agreement provided, can put this into more substantial words :-) :D

EDIT: as it seems even satellites have had enough to see deniers abuse their hickups :-)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Benje on April 14, 2016, 05:33:49 PM
Pauldry 600
"In the event that all the ice is gone in late August and early September (bar the bit north of Greenland) what will we have to talk about?

Will all your wonderful posts be just of sea?"

Hi Pauldry, I know yours was really just a facetious comment but you may want to look across to the Greenland melt thread

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1465.msg73701.html#new (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1465.msg73701.html#new)

What is bad for sea ice is worse for Greenland's ice and when that 7 metres of sea level quantity of ice  really starts to melt - when the sea ice has gone - the prospect of a combination of much stronger storms from warming and more/higher water troubles me greatly.

Thanks Magnamentis for plugging the graph gaps on extent and area. I am so hooked (perhaps mesmerized would be better) on looking at them that I feel incomplete without seeing where we are going...especially this year.

Benje
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 14, 2016, 06:01:07 PM
you find the links a few pages back, else let me know so that i can send you a set of bookmarks that help me to stay current. i myself am very "visual" and like al those graphs, especially those of @jimpettit which he resumed to update more frequently. i even starded to make my own set just in case something or someone will stop doing things  8)

https://sites.google.com/site/pettitclimategraphs/system/errors/NodeNotFound?suri=wuid://defaultdomain/pettitclimategraphs/gx:83a853be9b936d5
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Buddy on April 14, 2016, 06:42:16 PM
The current year may indeed turn out to be "another 2012".........or I should say, just another in a long list of current AND future years like that.

As others have mentioned.....we are approaching an interesting time, as the Arctic ice sheet is losing more and more of its area.....and opening the dark blue waters of the Arctic Ocean to absorb more heat.  And THAT...will all Greenland to be pummeled with warmer weather and increase its melting.

2016 has already been jaw dropping from a scientific point of view.  I'm sure the next 6 months will bring more surprises on both the Arctic ice sheet AND on Greenland.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 14, 2016, 10:39:41 PM
Here's what happens when the Beaufort Gyre goes into overdrive:

http://youtu.be/hHf7Raxs5rM (http://youtu.be/hHf7Raxs5rM)

The current forecast suggests it's going to keep going like that for a while yet.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Siffy on April 15, 2016, 11:34:46 AM
Just looking at the cice drift maps leaves me kind of in awe. Can we expect this to continue for the foreseeable future?

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww7320.nrlssc.navy.mil%2FhycomARC%2Fnavo%2Farcticicespddrfnowcast.gif&hash=0cda48db52e205f5a15acbce8f6e0387)

looks like a crazy amount of ice getting thrown out of the fram strait.

The high over the Beaufort sea looks set to continue for a long while. Is the sea ice movement out through the fram being caused by this?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: oren on April 15, 2016, 12:03:29 PM
The export machine is humming. Seems a slight uptick in the Greenland Sea is (at least partly) what caused IJIS extent to stall in the last few days.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 15, 2016, 12:50:05 PM
The export machine is humming. Seems a slight uptick in the Greenland Sea is (at least partly) what caused IJIS extent to stall in the last few days.

Since the cryodenialosphere porky pie production line is still humming with fairy tales of "Satellite Problems With Arctic Sea Ice Measurement (http://greatwhitecon.info/2016/04/satellite-problems-with-arctic-sea-ice-measurement/)" not to mention the supposed "Global Sea Ice Strong Comeback (http://greatwhitecon.info/2016/04/global-sea-ice-comeback-conspiracy/)",  here's two for the price of one:
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Buddy on April 15, 2016, 01:19:53 PM

Quote
here's two for the price of one:

The Greenland sea ice chart is especially interesting since we are "transitioning" to the next phase of global warming:

1)  Phase #1 was the "attack" on the easiest ice to get at:  The Arctic ice sheet (since it is at sea level...warming oceans get at it first)....and this has been going on for the last 35 years already.

2)  Phase #2 is Greenland:  Now that more and more of the Arctic are "out of the way"....the warming ocean surrounding Greenland will work its magic and continue to melt the Greenland ice sheet at higher and higher altitudes.

3)  Phase #3 is Antarctica:  And yes....it has already started by the oceans warming the underbelly of the ice....but more significant work will wait until Greenland ice melt is further under way....and the Arctic Ocean sees more and more "ice free days" in the future.

In Greenland....I expect SIGNIFCANT changes over the next 5 years.  This year has already started with a bang...

 

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 15, 2016, 02:18:07 PM
The export machine is humming. Seems a slight uptick in the Greenland Sea is (at least partly) what caused IJIS extent to stall in the last few days.

Since the cryodenialosphere porky pie production line is still humming with fairy tales of "Satellite Problems With Arctic Sea Ice Measurement (http://greatwhitecon.info/2016/04/satellite-problems-with-arctic-sea-ice-measurement/)" not to mention the supposed "Global Sea Ice Strong Comeback (http://greatwhitecon.info/2016/04/global-sea-ice-comeback-conspiracy/)",  here's two for the price of one:

Also CAB has seen increased its extent in the last 30 days  by 100k km2, much of what it is being exported toward Svalbard falls into this region. Below extent in M. Km2 as a function of months (sorry for the lack of labels, I have stolen Wipneus' AMSR2-based calculations plot from ASIG).
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Metamemesis on April 15, 2016, 04:04:10 PM
Just looking at the cice drift maps leaves me kind of in awe. Can we expect this to continue for the foreseeable future?

looks like a crazy amount of ice getting thrown out of the fram strait.

The high over the Beaufort sea looks set to continue for a long while. Is the sea ice movement out through the fram being caused by this?

Quick observation: Although being pushed out of the Fram Strait is a death sentence for any ice, you may want to take a look at the  NASA images  (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%28hidden%29,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Graticule,Coastlines&t=2016-04-14&v=359314.0604282457,-814773.5152264289,1342354.0604282457,-329909.51522642886) for the ice heading south towards Svalbard.

There's some relatively warm water (showing up as about 0 degrees on  SST maps  (http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_newdisp_anomaly_north_pole_stereo_ophi0.png)) just to the north of Svalbard, and once ice hits that area it's just completely melting out. You can see this quite well for the 9 April to 15 April images (sadly I don't have time to insert them now).
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 15, 2016, 04:52:35 PM
Just looking at the cice drift maps leaves me kind of in awe. Can we expect this to continue for the foreseeable future?

looks like a crazy amount of ice getting thrown out of the fram strait.

The high over the Beaufort sea looks set to continue for a long while. Is the sea ice movement out through the fram being caused by this?

Quick observation: Although being pushed out of the Fram Strait is a death sentence for any ice, you may want to take a look at the  NASA images  (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%28hidden%29,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Graticule,Coastlines&t=2016-04-14&v=359314.0604282457,-814773.5152264289,1342354.0604282457,-329909.51522642886) for the ice heading south towards Svalbard.

There's some relatively warm water (showing up as about 0 degrees on  SST maps  (http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_newdisp_anomaly_north_pole_stereo_ophi0.png)) just to the north of Svalbard, and once ice hits that area it's just completely melting out. You can see this quite well for the 9 April to 15 April images (sadly I don't have time to insert them now).
Correct on both counts, Metamemsis. 

Regarding the IJIS uptick, I think the answer is dispersion pretty much everywhere in the Arctic.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 15, 2016, 05:55:38 PM
Yes, and with pressures in the 1035-1040 hPa range. That's what so insane about this whole event, it just keeps going. I'm going to try and do an update on the ASIB later today.
I've put up a Beaufort update (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/04/beaufort-quick-update.html) over on the ASIB:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fneven1.typepad.com%2F.a%2F6a0133f03a1e37970b01b8d1c04efa970c-800wi&hash=767432560100f2627ac48e14f896c03e)

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 15, 2016, 09:41:03 PM
Yes, and with pressures in the 1035-1040 hPa range. That's what so insane about this whole event, it just keeps going. I'm going to try and do an update on the ASIB later today.
I've put up a Beaufort update (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/04/beaufort-quick-update.html) over on the ASIB:

Just read it and commented.  Good post, Neven.

An additional thought - this turns up in the US Navy HYCOM/ARC models - the persistent strong flow westward along the northern Alaska coast they forecast to open considerable expanse in the Chukchi, as ice there is forced away from Alaska and then spun around to the NW into the CAB proper.  They don't predict it to stack up particularly on the Siberian side in the ESS, unfortunately.

Opening the Chukchi that much, this soon, with soon to be warming Alaskan interior to keep it from refreezing would be a very dangerous development as it will massively increase the uptake of insolation even without melt ponds.

(Link to the models - watch the NW coast of AK towards the end.)

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif)

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2016041318_2016042100_041_arcticictn.001.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2016041318_2016042100_041_arcticictn.001.gif)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: plinius on April 15, 2016, 11:07:34 PM
I would not focus so much on the Beaufort as on the European side. Within 120hours the Kara region should get into a serious WLA combined with the drift spooning the ice directly into the Fram strait. Given that all models have the weakest ice there since at least 2012, that we know that it has been an excessively warm winter there, and that one can already see the ice turning into a slush and small floes, expect a lot of action. We could actually start making bets if the Kara ice will see June at all. Same between Spitzbergen and FJL - there I have never seen the ice rim so weak and already starting to decay.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 15, 2016, 11:32:41 PM
Yes, there's enough stuff for a blog post on that too. I wanted to do something on Svalbard now and this past winter, but maybe I should expand.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: DavidR on April 16, 2016, 04:11:40 AM
The GISS March  temperature figures are out at:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ (http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/)

As expected temperatures are nearly as anomoulous as last  month at +128.  The NH anomaly  is +178. Globally this is 36 points above the previous record for March  and 66 points above the 1998 figure.
No respite for the arctic there.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 16, 2016, 07:40:31 AM


Snow cover has started to rapidly decline.

As others have said the persistence of this ridge is amazing.

We can expect snow cover to decrease faster over the next 7 days.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FmSJBBH7.jpg&hash=f9e99fee8b870b4018a020dcfad1cbc4)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 16, 2016, 07:49:00 AM
After 7 days of a major ridge.

The gfs slides into more of a traditional GIS/NA side dipole.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F088EsxW.jpg&hash=6fa1b22f2eb9a43f8c501b13d8e37fcf)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Michael J on April 16, 2016, 08:24:54 AM
Quote
Meanwhile would it surprise you to learn that several of the usual suspects have been surreally suggesting that "Global sea ice makes a strong comeback!".

I think they're all on the same email group from HQ (Koch Brothers:).  Another site.....which I have posted to has the same thing.  Of course.....they did the same thing in the other "recovery periods) as well in prior years.

I think they will be much more persistent this year.....especially in the US.....as this is an election year.  The fossil fuel companies and their paid bloggers are pushing (lying) hard...even when it makes no sense whatever.  Koch/Watts/others can only keep the sunshine of truth hidden for so long....  I encourage others to post FACTS and SCIENCE to their sites.....
I think the opposite. With a majority of voters now believing in climate change I think the GOP will want these people to STFU until after the election.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 16, 2016, 08:46:38 AM


Snow cover has started to rapidly decline.

As others have said the persistence of this ridge is amazing.

We can expect snow cover to decrease faster over the next 7 days.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FmSJBBH7.jpg&hash=f9e99fee8b870b4018a020dcfad1cbc4)

This is the same Rutgers chart of snow anomalies during March. This year the daily charts have been dispaying this annular pattern (roughly latitude-constant) during Winter and early Spring. To me this is directly related to record global temps. Spring has been coming days, even weeks earlier than usual almost everywhere in the NH. If this continues until Summer it can be bad for the ice (not probable for this to stop given how warm the NH is, and now especially if albedo amplification plays its role in the Arctic regions).
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 16, 2016, 11:57:16 AM
I've been comparing April conditions with those of previous years (see attached image). The first two weeks of April look remarkable like 2012, both temperature- and pressure-wise. 2013 saw even higher and more widespread high pressure, but temps were lower.

Then I went to the ASIB to check the archive for May and found this blog post (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/05/beaufort-break-up.html) from May 23rd with a fantastic video showing what had happened in 2012 between days 90 and 143 (March 30th-May 23rd):

! No longer available (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6EU50hFrMA0#)

I'm so happy with this video because of the LANCE-MODIS problems with the hard disk failure (no images up to December 2013) and Worldview starts in May 2012.

We can expect something similar this year, and probably worse, as the high faded somewhat during the second half of April 2012, but is currently forecast to continue (strongly) for at least another week. Second attachment shows SLP for second half of 2012.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on April 16, 2016, 02:54:30 PM
.....

Interesting
given difference between
(https://www.ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/nh_sce.png)
and
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.star.nesdis.noaa.gov%2Fsmcd%2Femb%2Fsnow%2Fplots%2Fdaily_snow_extent%2Fmultisensor_4km_nh_snow_extent_by_year_graph.png&hash=c8c93c5f86894e9eadb1e8760de62287)

I was wondering if there were sensor issues with the latter as well as CT & NSIDC

Edit: Rutgers doesn't seem to show a dramatic change either see
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2016&ui_day=100&ui_set=2 (http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2016&ui_day=100&ui_set=2)

the links crandles has provided are live and now show currently good agreement between the two graphs (25 million sqare km)
or look at the data here https://www.ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/nh_sce.png (https://www.ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/nh_sce.png) as crandles said browser refreh can be necessary to get latest version
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 16, 2016, 10:45:18 PM
As anticipated, sea ice area in the Chukchi Sea is now taking a premature nose dive:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/#comment-214274 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/#comment-214274)

The area in the Beaufort Sea, on the other hand, has increased somewhat over the last 2 days.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 17, 2016, 08:44:11 AM
The 00z gfs is amazing over the Western half of Eurasia.

Snow cover will continue to accelerate in its melt further and further East but also North pushing towards the shores of the Kara sea.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 17, 2016, 09:28:04 AM
And the euro is pure epic LOL!


Goodbye Greenland
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 17, 2016, 09:41:41 AM
Friv just checked the EURO and have to agree!! It will be very interesting to see if the forecasts verifies! If so, there should be a good set up for an onslaught later in the season.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 17, 2016, 10:44:26 AM
It is worth to notice that the GFS weakens the big Arctic high pressure system from in the first week of May with a return to normal conditions. If so, it might prevent a build up of strong melting momentum later this season as the temps are climbing up quite fast now.

See here: (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Forigin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fpeople%2Fmchen%2FCFSv2FCST%2Fweekly%2Fimages1%2Fwk3.wk4_20160415.z500.gif&hash=7b6968890d9a09844380e7a00b52187b)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 17, 2016, 10:56:17 AM
Here's the overall effect of the Great Arctic Anticyclone of 2016 on the Pacific side so far:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/satellite-problems-with-arctic-sea-ice-measurement/#comment-214280 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/satellite-problems-with-arctic-sea-ice-measurement/#comment-214280)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: pauldry600 on April 17, 2016, 12:55:49 PM
Never seen so many orange colours over Greenland on GFS

What will this do to the sea levels or is there a minimal effect

The past 3 Winters in Britain and Ireland we have had coastal flooding on an unprecedented scale.

Dont fancy it getting worse
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Laurent on April 17, 2016, 01:16:03 PM
Orange appearing in Kara !
http://go.nasa.gov/1qyOUTW (http://go.nasa.gov/1qyOUTW)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Laurent on April 17, 2016, 01:26:03 PM
And some rain, just in case it wasn't enough over Kara monday 25th. That rain will go to Laptev and the remaining will head to the pole.
http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Arctic?symbols=none&type=prec (http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Arctic?symbols=none&type=prec)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Siffy on April 17, 2016, 01:28:58 PM
And the euro is pure epic LOL!


Goodbye Greenland

Could you give more detail on what the forecast is suggesting will happen?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 17, 2016, 01:41:35 PM
Orange appearing in Kara !

Since you mention it Laurent:

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 17, 2016, 02:23:35 PM
Laurent - Have you ever tried "squashing" the brightness temperature palette? Here's the Beaufort Sea currently:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/#comment-214282 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/#comment-214282)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Shared Humanity on April 17, 2016, 02:44:00 PM
This is one of the scariest images (posted by Neven on ASIB) I have seen in a long time. The Canadian archipelago has been taking a beating the past couple of summers, including some fracturing events that ripped much of the remaining older ice away from the islands. This image suggests the last bit of 4 year and 5 year ice is set to get yanked into and crushed by the Beaufort Gyre. We need to see if those massive fractures that have recently appeared in the Beaufort continue to propagate towards that last remnant of 5 year old ice.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 17, 2016, 04:25:31 PM
And the euro is pure epic LOL!


Goodbye Greenland

Could you give more detail on what the forecast is suggesting will happen?

Just huge snow melt over Eurasia and Western NA.

Relentless ridging over the arctic before a turn towards another huge and nasty GIS bad -NAO(dipole)

But it's really not of an arctic like omega block.

Just going to massively precondition things.

This solution would have GIS by far to it's worst start in the modern era.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FNPQ40Dg.jpg&hash=e39279344d5327c6a741192e35ddd826)


Also looks looks thin ice formation over the Beaufort and Chuchki will be stopping by the 25th.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Laurent on April 17, 2016, 04:53:51 PM
I think the cracks will expand, it is the perfect timing and ice condition to go far, for the moment the ice is too strong on the central arctic basin so we may have to wait for the cracks to really expand.
For the palette, yes I already tried different things but I like the default one, it gives more information about what is going on I think.
The animation is from the 2nd to the 16th of april.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on April 17, 2016, 08:59:53 PM
I plan on watching the 'upside-down Ohio' shaped ice floe in the Beaufort Sea as it seems to be the most resilient hunk of ice in the region.  Will it crumble?  Will is survive the summer?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 18, 2016, 12:03:40 AM


Snow cover has started to rapidly decline.

As others have said the persistence of this ridge is amazing.

We can expect snow cover to decrease faster over the next 7 days.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FmSJBBH7.jpg&hash=f9e99fee8b870b4018a020dcfad1cbc4)

This is the same Rutgers chart of snow anomalies during March. This year the daily charts have been dispaying this annular pattern (roughly latitude-constant) during Winter and early Spring. To me this is directly related to record global temps. Spring has been coming days, even weeks earlier than usual almost everywhere in the NH. If this continues until Summer it can be bad for the ice (not probable for this to stop given how warm the NH is, and now especially if albedo amplification plays its role in the Arctic regions).

Seattle, today 28C.  Our fruit trees were blooming at the end of February. Weeks.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 18, 2016, 12:26:52 AM
The 12z euro was insane. Absolutely no exagerating.  Just nuts. 

If it happens there will be multiple open water areas of appreciable size by the 25th with albedo dropping over the Pacific side. 
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Csnavywx on April 18, 2016, 02:48:48 AM
It is worth to notice that the GFS weakens the big Arctic high pressure system from in the first week of May with a return to normal conditions. If so, it might prevent a build up of strong melting momentum later this season as the temps are climbing up quite fast now.

See here: (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Forigin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fpeople%2Fmchen%2FCFSv2FCST%2Fweekly%2Fimages1%2Fwk3.wk4_20160415.z500.gif&hash=7b6968890d9a09844380e7a00b52187b)

Careful with W3 and W4 projections. There's very little run to run consistency (dprog/dt exhibits high variability on these products anyways -- check out today's run for comparison). The best avenue is using an ensemble or paying attention to anomaly persistence with each run.

El Nino still has a chokehold on the atmospheric pattern over the Pacific, so a continuation of an Aleutian negative height anomaly is likely, flanked to the east and north by positive height anomalies.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Csnavywx on April 18, 2016, 03:19:51 AM
The 12z euro was insane. Absolutely no exagerating.  Just nuts. 

If it happens there will be multiple open water areas of appreciable size by the 25th with albedo dropping over the Pacific side.

Yeah, it brings above freezing surface temps all the way into the Beaufort towards the end of the run and a nice plume of warm 850s into that developing block. The EPS is largely on board with the OP run too. The 18Z GFS basically agrees with the pattern but is slower in initiating it. Both the EC and GFS (ENS and OP) inundate Greenland with warm air and a +2-3 SD ridge (570+ dam!) starting at day 4 and more or less leave it there for days on end.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Michael Hauber on April 18, 2016, 04:27:38 AM
In my opinion 2008 is the year to beat for early Beaufort ice melt out.  Looking at Neven's past weather patterns (no longer updated) shows that May 2008 started with a massive high pressure similar to what we have now.  Early 2008 was notable for a rather large short term drop in global temperatures, in contrast to the rather large short term rise we have now.  So although I see little correlation between short term global temps and Arctic ice changes, the last couple of months are close to 1 degree warmer than early 2008, and that would seem to have to count for something.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 18, 2016, 06:27:41 AM
The 12z euro was insane. Absolutely no exagerating.  Just nuts. 

If it happens there will be multiple open water areas of appreciable size by the 25th with albedo dropping over the Pacific side.

Yeah, it brings above freezing surface temps all the way into the Beaufort towards the end of the run and a nice plume of warm 850s into that developing block. The EPS is largely on board with the OP run too. The 18Z GFS basically agrees with the pattern but is slower in initiating it. Both the EC and GFS (ENS and OP) inundate Greenland with warm air and a +2-3 SD ridge (570+ dam!) starting at day 4 and more or less leave it there for days on end.

Gis is a 365 heat sink.

The earlier albedo is lowered and snow melts, and ssts warm the weaker it becomes since it will be absorbing that much more energy
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 18, 2016, 08:33:31 AM
The 00z gfs has an unprecedented WAA regime into the Kara, Barents, Nansen Basin and Laptev in the day 6-10 range . 

It's preceded by a week of straight torching of the snow cover over the Western half of Eurasia all the way to the arctic coastal regions.

This is an incredibly impressive setup. 


The gfs has full support of the gem and gefs.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 18, 2016, 09:01:00 AM
Friv: the EURO is out. As GFS have notoriously unreliable skill forecasts I use to be sceptic against it. However, the EURO backs it and I think we can be rather confident that the snow melt will accelerate. If this weather pattern continues through May and June it will be an onslaught to the ice! The ooz EURO has temps at 850 hPa above 0 in Chukchi and ESS by the end of April :o

Also interesting is that we almost had a century break today. A drop of about 80K is not too bad to be in the middle of April.

Does anyone know why one no longer can see the anomalies and area numbers for Kara Sea at Cryosphere Today when you look at the regional area numbers? Have been so for a while now.

And, somewhat OT but is it really 32oC in the Indian Ocean?:o Look at the area north of Madagascar! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_sst_ind_1.png (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_sst_ind_1.png) Soon, Tropical Tidbits have to extend the scale upward as the warming continues..

Best, LMV
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 18, 2016, 11:44:16 AM
The euro  is epic.
Comparing current heights to recent years.

The PV anomaly is gone. 


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FpJb9jxW.jpg&hash=41548a6c09f4d3ff58e1fd72026b08e8)


Thats unreal.  That looks, liklife MAY 20th height fee field.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Ft6aZSSf.jpg&hash=c06c4815a45be515da265a3685fbfb84)


We can't overlook that the cold pools are being pushed out of the arctic where they inherently weaken date faster with stronger sun.


So albedo over the arctic basin will drop expecially on the Pacific side.

400w/m2 * .80 = 320.  So roughly 80 wm/2 gets absorbed which isn't Shit.

400wm/2 *.60 = 240.  So double is absorbed to 160w/m2.

Get some melt pics ponds or snow free flows and the albedo drops to .40-.50 and 200-240 is absorbed.


So by early May the arctic basin could be all things being equal absorbing more insolation by 5-20% above historical norms.


My point:  melt season could start a week real earlier.

Which is hell considering it Will be near peak insolation.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Laurent on April 18, 2016, 11:49:01 AM
1 : A long crack expanding the Beaufort strength, it is now the whole arctic ice that is connected in rotation. To have something similar last year it was at least 10 days later.
2 : An other crack aiming at the pole, the constraint goes out of Beaufort, let see how it goes...
http://go.nasa.gov/1Vd3g9F (http://go.nasa.gov/1Vd3g9F)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 18, 2016, 11:50:23 AM
Does anyone know why one no longer can see the anomalies and area numbers for Kara Sea at Cryosphere Today when you look at the regional area numbers? Have been so for a while now.

One can only assume it's in response to the recent satellite "gremlins"?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/satellite-problems-with-arctic-sea-ice-measurement/ (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/satellite-problems-with-arctic-sea-ice-measurement/)

AMSR2 Kara update coming shortly!
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Stephen on April 18, 2016, 12:39:23 PM
Never seen so many orange colours over Greenland on GFS

What will this do to the sea levels or is there a minimal effect

The past 3 Winters in Britain and Ireland we have had coastal flooding on an unprecedented scale.

Dont fancy it getting worse

A total melt of the Greenland ice sheet would actually lower the sea level around the British Isles (assuming Antarctica stays intact) because the gravitational attraction of the ice sheet sucks the water in.  I think that the sea level around Greenland itself will drop by ~100 metres.   But of course as Greenland melts that raises the sea level around Antarctica which accelerates the melt down there. And the north atlantic will get the full effect of that.

People tend to talk in worrying tones about "8 metres of sea-level rise in the GIS".  But to me that's like saying falling of a 100 storey building is a worry so falling off a 10 storey building should be a cinch.   That first metre of sea-level rise is more than the world's population can cope with anyway.  But maybe we should continue this topic over on the Greenland forum (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1465.0.html).
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 18, 2016, 01:01:09 PM
Speaking of snow cover, quite large changes in the past 8 days in western Siberia, joining western North America where open patches keep reaching further into Alaska:
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 18, 2016, 01:30:03 PM
Regular readers may be interested in this document, complete with many pretty pictures:

https://issuu.com/framcentre/docs/framforum-2016-issu (https://issuu.com/framcentre/docs/framforum-2016-issu)

Turning swiftly to page 60 you will discover:

Highlights from the Fram Strait Arctic Outflow Observatory (http://www.framsenteret.no/highlights-from-the-fram-strait-arctic-outflow-observatory.5865555-373134.html)

Quote
Almost 90% of all sea ice export from the Arctic Ocean takes place through Fram Strait. Sea ice makes up about half the total freshwater outflow there. Moored, upward-looking sonars in Fram Strait have monitored sea ice thickness continuously since 1990. The measurements revealed that both thick, deformed, multi-year sea ice and level ice decreased in thickness by nearly half a metre per decade. Hence, the thickness of multi-year flat sea ice in Fram Strait is currently only 2 m, as opposed to 3 m in the 1990s.

Our time series also indicate that half of the warm Atlantic Water that flows towards the Arctic Ocean takes a short cut and recirculates in Fram Strait. This salty, “heavy” water contributes to the dense overflows further south that drive large scale circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. Monitoring the temperature of the Atlantic Water is also highly relevant because of its potential impact on the Greenland ice sheet: a warmer ocean might speed up the movement of calving glaciers in eastern Greenland.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Laurent on April 18, 2016, 02:09:38 PM
Will the ice melt or not before colliding Swalbard coast, what a suspense !!!
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 18, 2016, 02:32:47 PM
Does the persistent High, and the higher 500 hpa geopotential altitude have to do with, apparently, a Sudden Stratorpheric Warming (SSW) that happened in March? FWIW:

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation (https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation)

explains impact of current conditions -AO -NAO at NH level

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 18, 2016, 03:18:50 PM
And how about the Bering Sea? It seems those winds causing the cracking event in the Beaufort are also pushing away the ice from the coast, leaving a large polynya behind that I'm not seeing anywhere on the SIC comparison page for April 19th (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic0419). I'm expecting a Bering crash similar to last year, meaning all the ice gone within 4 weeks:
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: marcel_g on April 18, 2016, 03:34:53 PM
Will the ice melt or not before colliding Swalbard coast, what a suspense !!!

Yes, it really is very interesting. Andreas T posted some images on the Svalbard thread tracking floes in this area showing that they were indeed melting out before hitting land.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1504.msg73989.html#msg73989 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1504.msg73989.html#msg73989)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 18, 2016, 03:42:24 PM
And how about the Bering Sea? It seems those winds causing the cracking event in the Beaufort are also pushing away the ice from the coast, leaving a large polynya behind that I'm not seeing anywhere on the SIC comparison page for April 19th (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic0419). I'm expecting a Bering crash similar to last year, meaning all the ice gone within 4 weeks:
Concur. Similar openings are forming in the Chukchi. It may be significantly open by June 1.  It may rapidly turn into an abattoir for ice swept into it.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 18, 2016, 08:25:00 PM
Another potential ice graveyard.

Laptev and eastern Kara, showing the impact of the anti cyclone.  This is EOSDIS TERRA/Modis overlain by band-31 night using a blue palatte at 65% opacity with a temp range of 235-268.5K to bring out cracking under the clouds.

The whole Arctic is undoubtedly in motion and large expanses of water are opening up around the edges of the central basin proper.  Highly unlikely at this juncture they will get covered in more than slush, if that.

[click to enlarge]
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 18, 2016, 10:05:09 PM
ECMWF 12z operational run somewhat better for the ice by developing a more cyclonic pattern by the end of the forecast period. Unfortunely, for the Arctic sea ice the ECMWF ensemble 12z run shows a continued high pressure dominated Arctic.

Will wait to see what Friv says :)

//LMV
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Laurent on April 18, 2016, 10:14:29 PM
The forecast is not good indeed !
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/WeeklySummary/ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org/WeeklySummary/)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Shared Humanity on April 18, 2016, 10:26:38 PM
Will the ice melt or not before colliding Swalbard coast, what a suspense !!!

There is visible melt along the ice edge but it's moving so fast it might still hit the shoreline.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: NeilT on April 18, 2016, 10:29:06 PM
And, somewhat OT but is it really 32oC in the Indian Ocean

Nope, it actually looks like it's 34C

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ (https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/)

I noticed that the wunderground chart had to increase the temp range up to 34> from 32> a few years ago...
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 19, 2016, 01:24:28 AM
And, somewhat OT but is it really 32oC in the Indian Ocean

Nope, it actually looks like it's 34C

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ (https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/)

I noticed that the wunderground chart had to increase the temp range up to 34> from 32> a few years ago...
And Bonus!  There's a Cat 5 cyclone getting spun up by it.  Joyus.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 19, 2016, 09:53:27 AM
I thought the forecast had improved somewhat, but those winds keep blowing over the Beaufort, and then pushing away that ice into the Bering Sea, with 'heat waves' hitting Baffin Bay and the Kara Sea (above freezing temps). If the forecast comes about, we can expect this year's trend line to stay lowest for at least 10 more days.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 19, 2016, 10:15:56 AM
Whilst the distribution of the ice in the Bering Sea is rather different, the overall area is currently similar to recent years:
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 19, 2016, 12:18:17 PM
Whilst the distribution of the ice in the Bering Sea is rather different, the overall area is currently similar to recent years:
The humorous thought going through my head reading this... Feels like saying it looks like two cows are still the same meat after putting one through a grinder
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 19, 2016, 12:39:15 PM
This study (2002, Journal of Geophysical Research) estimates that about 50% of snowfall during Winter and Spring are removed by snow sublimation and blowing snow. This is a full paper open for reading.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2001JD001251/full (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2001JD001251/full)

I think this is interesting for current conditions at parts of Beaufort, CAB, Chukchi and ESS under the huge sustained high pressure system (cold, dry?, windy, sunny for weeks)

Snowfall can happen until May except for the coldest areas adjacent to North of Greenland and Canada where it can go on until June. Given the predictions, it seems there won't be much precipitation until May, but isolated snowfalls can happen during Summer as we could see all these past years.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 19, 2016, 12:46:46 PM
The view of the sun rising above the horizon from the O-Buoy 14 webcam:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#OBuoy14 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#OBuoy14)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: epiphyte on April 19, 2016, 05:24:11 PM
The humorous thought going through my head reading this... Feels like saying it looks like two cows are still the same meat after putting one through a grinder


...is this an allusion to the fact that one of them is dead?  8)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 19, 2016, 05:49:22 PM
DMI have just announced that their extent graph is updating again:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/satellite-problems-with-arctic-sea-ice-measurement/#comment-214292 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/satellite-problems-with-arctic-sea-ice-measurement/#comment-214292)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 19, 2016, 06:35:48 PM
ECMWF 12z operational run somewhat better for the ice by developing a more cyclonic pattern by the end of the forecast period. Unfortunely, for the Arctic sea ice the ECMWF ensemble 12z run shows a continued high pressure dominated Arctic.

Will wait to see what Friv says :)

//LMV


Haven't been able to check today.


But:

Snow cover is plummeting

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FnewSji3.jpg&hash=c6a1f0a14557b1cd654ea29f9b77d74e)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 19, 2016, 07:54:52 PM
I was focused on snow cover in Canada/Alaska, but good Lord, look at western Siberia!
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on April 19, 2016, 08:32:30 PM

It looks like much of Western Siberia is going to have +10 to +20°C air temperature anomalies throughout this week. Much of the air above the Kara Sea will be persistently above 0°C from Saturday through Tuesday.



Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 20, 2016, 12:23:02 AM

It looks like much of Western Siberia is going to have +10 to +20°C air temperature anomalies throughout this week. Much of the air above the Kara Sea will be persistently above 0°C from Saturday through Tuesday.

Exactly, and the Eurasian snow cover is already disappearing at light speed:
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 20, 2016, 04:26:28 AM
Back to the Beaufort.

World View, Aqua Modis band 31 night, blue palette, squashed to about 230K-272K, Beaufort and environs.

This disturbs me, and am I wrong to assume it is unprecedented?  The Anticyclone has ripped up nearly 1,000,000 KM2 of ice and continues to expand the disruption.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Juan C. García on April 20, 2016, 06:22:59 AM
This disturbs me, and am I wrong to assume it is unprecedented?  The Anticyclone has ripped up nearly 1,000,000 KM2 of ice and continues to expand the disruption.

IJIS:
12,928,117 km2(April 19, 2016)
Everyone else as speechless and terrified about this as I am?

ADS-NIPR Extent:
12,996,593 km2 (18 April)
54 days this year (50% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
95 days in total (87.96%) have been among the lowest three on record.

How many years are in which, on a daily basis, we have recorded 50% the lowest daily extent and 87.96% among the lowest three on record?

Seems to me that 2016 is going to be a very special year. The SIE has been very low and the remaining ice is not healthy.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Tensor on April 20, 2016, 06:42:04 AM
Back to the Beaufort.

World View, Aqua Modis band 31 night, blue palette, squashed to about 230K-272K, Beaufort and environs.

This disturbs me, and am I wrong to assume it is unprecedented?  The Anticyclone has ripped up nearly 1,000,000 KM2 of ice and continues to expand the disruption.

Am I wrong to assume the the breakup shown is an indication of the lack of thickness and poor condition of the ice?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: oren on April 20, 2016, 07:41:03 AM
Looking at the IJIS extent chart, it seems we are tracking about one whole week earlier than the "new normal" years. And it's quite consistent. Since Chris Reynolds has shown a while ago that the way towards an ice free arctic goes through a shorter freezing season and a longer melting season, I believe this is significant. Despite the calculations that show a "Slow Transition", it seems the actual arctic could have some surprises. This year's chart of FDDs, and the early drops in extent, could cook a very interesting year.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 20, 2016, 07:51:11 AM
Looking at the IJIS extent chart, it seems we are tracking about one whole week earlier than the "new normal" years. And it's quite consistent. Since Chris Reynolds has shown a while ago that the way towards an ice free arctic goes through a shorter freezing season and a longer melting season, I believe this is significant. Despite the calculations that show a "Slow Transition", it seems the actual arctic could have some surprises. This year's chart of FDDs, and the early drops in extent, could cook a very interesting year.
... and that "one week" is far bigger than it might appear, as it gets amplified each successive day hat passes, with increased energy getting captured and the cascading effect of melt accelerating.

If there is an "bump" week of melting on the other side of the year, I'm convinced it is almost certain we'll drop below 2012, possibly by quite a lot.  It won't take an exceptional year to get there, with two extra weeks.  If we have a year like 2012, bar the door, because Wadhams may be proven right.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 20, 2016, 08:42:10 AM
O-Buoy 14 is gradually defrosting. and an Arctic Ocean Flux Buoy  is now visible in the distance:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#OBuoy14 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#OBuoy14)

The yellow blob in the foreground may well be Ice Tethered Profiler 89. Here's what it reveals also:
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: slow wing on April 20, 2016, 09:26:57 AM
Very interesting, thanks Jim.

It took me a while to reconcile the coarse & fine scales for both temperature & salinity profiles because they distort the intermediate values for each colour in going between coarse & fine, while keeping both endpoints the same.

For the example of temperature, the endpoints are  violet at -2.0oC and red at +1.8oC, applying for both the coarse and fine scales. However the fine/coarse values respectively for 0%, 20%, 40%, 60% and 80%, 100% up the colour scale are, in degrees C, -2.0 for both (0%, violet), -1.6 vs 0.0 (20%, dark blue), -1.2 vs 0.4 (40%, light blue),  -0.8 vs 0.6 (60%, light green), -0.4 vs 0.8 (80%, yellow), 1.8 for both (100%, red).

Why do they do that!? Presumably to give slightly better resolution for both plots but... ugh!
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 20, 2016, 10:17:49 AM
Looking at the IJIS extent chart, it seems we are tracking about one whole week earlier than the "new normal" years. And it's quite consistent. Since Chris Reynolds has shown a while ago that the way towards an ice free arctic goes through a shorter freezing season and a longer melting season, I believe this is significant. Despite the calculations that show a "Slow Transition", it seems the actual arctic could have some surprises. This year's chart of FDDs, and the early drops in extent, could cook a very interesting year.

Indeed. I keep thinking about the perfect chronological order for a melting season to go really low or ice-free, and it looks something like this so far. If we get heavy melt ponding during May and June, I might cry.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: 6roucho on April 20, 2016, 10:50:54 AM
Looking at the IJIS extent chart, it seems we are tracking about one whole week earlier than the "new normal" years. And it's quite consistent. Since Chris Reynolds has shown a while ago that the way towards an ice free arctic goes through a shorter freezing season and a longer melting season, I believe this is significant. Despite the calculations that show a "Slow Transition", it seems the actual arctic could have some surprises. This year's chart of FDDs, and the early drops in extent, could cook a very interesting year.
... and that "one week" is far bigger than it might appear, as it gets amplified each successive day hat passes, with increased energy getting captured and the cascading effect of melt accelerating.

If there is an "bump" week of melting on the other side of the year, I'm convinced it is almost certain we'll drop below 2012, possibly by quite a lot.  It won't take an exceptional year to get there, with two extra weeks.  If we have a year like 2012, bar the door, because Wadhams may be proven right.
In that eventuality could we conclude that the ice has gone emeritus?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 20, 2016, 10:55:37 AM
Am I wrong to assume the the breakup shown is an indication of the lack of thickness and poor condition of the ice?

My first thought exactly. I think you're spot on while there is never only one culprit but still, the ice could not grow in thickness as usual and as a result any movement has a greater impact which will have it's consequences when it comes to Albedo reduction etc.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 20, 2016, 11:17:06 AM
Am I wrong to assume the the breakup shown is an indication of the lack of thickness and poor condition of the ice?

My first thought exactly. I think you're spot on while there is never only one culprit but still, the ice could not grow in thickness as usual and as a result any movement has a greater impact which will have it's consequences when it comes to Albedo reduction etc.

We cannot know if this has happened frequently in the past but my feeling is "yes". This atmospheric pattern is very normal in the Arctic, and it is what provides mechanical energy to the  perennial Gyre and transpolar ocean currents. I am not convinced that the fact ice is thicker or thinner is a factor on the extent of cracking (actually much of the ice cracking right now is multi-year old and 2m thick).

What does the cracking induce during the melting season if May comes warm and sunny, that can be with no precedent "thanks" to AGW.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 20, 2016, 12:04:13 PM
It looks as though the Great Arctic Anticyclone of 2016 may yet have a sting in its tail:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/#comment-214300 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/#comment-214300)

ACNFS currently suggests that next week the entrance to McClure Strait will be cleared of old ice just as the flow of (comparatively!) warm water from the Mackenzie River into the eastern Beaufort Sea starts to increase:
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: oren on April 20, 2016, 12:40:38 PM
Looking at the IJIS extent chart, it seems we are tracking about one whole week earlier than the "new normal" years. And it's quite consistent. Since Chris Reynolds has shown a while ago that the way towards an ice free arctic goes through a shorter freezing season and a longer melting season, I believe this is significant. Despite the calculations that show a "Slow Transition", it seems the actual arctic could have some surprises. This year's chart of FDDs, and the early drops in extent, could cook a very interesting year.

... and that "one week" is far bigger than it might appear, as it gets amplified each successive day hat passes, with increased energy getting captured and the cascading effect of melt accelerating.


If there is an "bump" week of melting on the other side of the year, I'm convinced it is almost certain we'll drop below 2012, possibly by quite a lot.  It won't take an exceptional year to get there, with two extra weeks.  If we have a year like 2012, bar the door, because Wadhams may be proven right.

Exactly.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: pauldry600 on April 20, 2016, 12:59:55 PM
Normally I lurk on this forum each day to see all the developments and am in awe of all the graphs and photos

Today im just downright depressed.

This year it seems like really serious things are happening "up there".

None of the posts are about refreezing or cold air. Each passing day there is more and more anomalies. It saddens me.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: pccp82 on April 20, 2016, 01:07:52 PM
I also lurk here quite often, and I want to make sure I am understanding something correctly.

with the discussion of the High pressure, does this have the effect of displacing the cold air out of the arctic?

looking at climate reanalyzer, it seems to show cold air being dragged out of the arctic into northern canada, while at the same time pulling warm air into Greenland...

In this instance, does the ice have time to recover before the sun gets too high in the sky to allow significant cooling?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 20, 2016, 01:12:07 PM
Looking at the IJIS extent chart, it seems we are tracking about one whole week earlier than the "new normal" years. And it's quite consistent. Since Chris Reynolds has shown a while ago that the way towards an ice free arctic goes through a shorter freezing season and a longer melting season, I believe this is significant. Despite the calculations that show a "Slow Transition", it seems the actual arctic could have some surprises. This year's chart of FDDs, and the early drops in extent, could cook a very interesting year.

... and that "one week" is far bigger than it might appear, as it gets amplified each successive day hat passes, with increased energy getting captured and the cascading effect of melt accelerating.


If there is an "bump" week of melting on the other side of the year, I'm convinced it is almost certain we'll drop below 2012, possibly by quite a lot.  It won't take an exceptional year to get there, with two extra weeks.  If we have a year like 2012, bar the door, because Wadhams may be proven right.

Exactly.

Like you i second that 100% and want to add that not only are we facing longer melt seasons as mentioned in the quoted post, but as well the average winter temps are that much lower that the ice will be thinning out and once the ice thickness high will stay below a certain level, even a "new normal" haha.. melting season will suffice to loose it all in ever shorter time. sorry for bad english as compared to native speakers, hope it's comprehensive.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: AmbiValent on April 20, 2016, 01:35:34 PM
It's not a new development, it's been like this for over two decades now: the up and down of weather plus the up and down of oscillations (like El Nino) plus a general downwards trend due to more heat trapped in the system equals new record lows every few years, with some up phases in between. The only ones to be surprised should be the ones who really believed in the recovery propaganda.

The only thing that really changed is that the effects on the rest of the globe get more intense over time.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Entropy101 on April 20, 2016, 02:21:00 PM
Despite the calculations that show a "Slow Transition", it seems the actual arctic could have some surprises. This year's chart of FDDs, and the early drops in extent, could cook a very interesting year.
I don't believe in a "Slow Transition". I believe a transition between two different states will start out slow, but once a certain tipping point is reached, the transition will take place very fast and very violently. A bit like jumping off of troll ledge. You jump and your speed will increase until terminal velocity and by itself that is not an issue. The thing that is the issue is the sudden deceleration at the bottom.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: AmbiValent on April 20, 2016, 02:45:52 PM
Despite the calculations that show a "Slow Transition", it seems the actual arctic could have some surprises. This year's chart of FDDs, and the early drops in extent, could cook a very interesting year.
I don't believe in a "Slow Transition". I believe a transition between two different states will start out slow, but once a certain tipping point is reached, the transition will take place very fast and very violently. A bit like jumping off of troll ledge. You jump and your speed will increase until terminal velocity and by itself that is not an issue. The thing that is the issue is the sudden deceleration at the bottom.
I think it will be less violent than you think, because there are many subsystems with their own tipping points that will be reached at different times (and some are already behind us). So while overall the development is irreversible and will become threatening when climate patterns move away from the ones favorable for humanity, there won't be a single point of violent change... just developments that seem harmless and let people get used to them - but summed up, are just as dangerous as the violent transition you spoke of.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on April 20, 2016, 02:49:22 PM
Quote
I don't believe in a "Slow Transition".

I don't either. The only thing propping up the Arctic Ocean right now is the lack of mixing. The heat is already there to melt the ice many times over. With an ice cover, the wind and waves cannot get at the density differences that keep the heat in place -- at depth where it is not in contact with the ice.

Quote
I believe a transition between two different states will start out slow, but once a certain tipping point is reached, the transition will take place very fast

I'm of the same opinion. The ice is in such a state that one of these years a really bad summer weather pattern will push way too much ice out the Fram Strait in a single drawn-out event. And there we'll be, unable turn things around, 80 years ahead of the warnings.

Quote
the development is irreversible and will become threatening when climate patterns move away from the ones favorable for humanity ...developments that seem harmless but summed up, are just as dangerous as the violent transition you spoke of.

That's the backup plan, the best we can hope for, and a good rationale for studying incremental change such as sea level and temperature rise, ocean pH, retreating glaciers, collapsing ice shelves and so forth.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: DavidR on April 20, 2016, 03:11:19 PM
NOAA have released their March analysis and nothing looks good:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201603 (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201603)

Some highlights:

- On March 24th, Arctic sea ice reached its maximum extent for the year at 5.61 million square miles, the lowest annual maximum extent in the satellite record. The maximum extent was 431,000 square miles below average and 5,000 square miles below the previous record that occurred in 2015, according to analysis by the National Snow and Ice Data Center based on data from NOAA and NASA.

- the March Arctic temperature over land for 66°–90°N overall was 3.34°C (6.01°F) higher than the 1981‐2010 average. This was the second highest March temperature on record for the region, 0.03°C (0.05°F) lower than the record set in 2011.

- The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for March 2016 was the highest for this month in the 1880–2016 record, at 1.22°C (2.20°F) above the 20th century average of 12.7°C (54.9°F).

- This surpassed the previous record set in 2015 by 0.32°C / (0.58°F), and marks the highest monthly temperature departure among all 1,635 months on record, surpassing the previous all-time record set just last month by 0.01°C (0.02°F).

- Overall, the nine highest monthly temperature departures in the record have all occurred in the past nine months.

-March 2016 also marks the 11th consecutive month a monthly global temperature record has been broken, the longest such streak in NOAA's 137 years of record keeping.

-  The first three months of 2016 were the warmest such period on record across the world's land and ocean surfaces, at 1.15°C (2.07°F) above the 20th century average of 12.3°C (54.1°F), surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.28°C (0.50°F) and surpassing January-March 1998, the last time during this period a similar strength El Niño occurred, by 0.45°C (0.81°F).

-  January–March 2016 also marks the highest departure from average for any three-month period on record. This record has been broken for seven consecutive months, since the July–September 2015 period.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on April 20, 2016, 03:29:18 PM
If March's SSW is what has tipped us into the Anticyclone over Beaufort and export from Fram ( and our cold spring in the UK!!!) then will 'normal services be resumed' in May or has the imposition of this pattern set the scene for larger portions of the summer up there?

We still have the heat from Nino working its way out of the system so we ought to expect some type of impact from this as well?

The other thing has to be the lack of cold and any changes this has brought to the ice? Surely if ice spends less time under -30 temps than normal it will not end up as 'cold' as it would have??? Am I thinking straight or am I getting turned around here?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 20, 2016, 03:47:39 PM
I also lurk here quite often, and I want to make sure I am understanding something correctly.

with the discussion of the High pressure, does this have the effect of displacing the cold air out of the arctic?

looking at climate reanalyzer, it seems to show cold air being dragged out of the arctic into northern canada, while at the same time pulling warm air into Greenland...

In this instance, does the ice have time to recover before the sun gets too high in the sky to allow significant cooling?
yes and yes, but the ice would not recover, simply might melt more slowly if that happens.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 20, 2016, 03:59:55 PM
If March's SSW is what has tipped us into the Anticyclone over Beaufort and export from Fram ( and our cold spring in the UK!!!) then will 'normal services be resumed' in May or has the imposition of this pattern set the scene for larger portions of the summer up there?

We still have the heat from Nino working its way out of the system so we ought to expect some type of impact from this as well?

The other thing has to be the lack of cold and any changes this has brought to the ice? Surely if ice spends less time under -30 temps than normal it will not end up as 'cold' as it would have??? Am I thinking straight or am I getting turned around here?
Does the persistent High, and the higher 500 hpa geopotential altitude have to do with, apparently, a Sudden Stratorpheric Warming (SSW) that happened in March? FWIW:

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation (https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation)

explains impact of current conditions -AO -NAO at NH level

I posted this link a couple of days ago. While aer.com seems a serious (for-profit) entity, how reliable it is I know not, but this page addresses March SSW (not sure how it works) and the current -AO and -NAO. The weather has worsened very much where I live in the way it is supposed to according to these indices.
Anyway, in May (inconclusive):

"Also the relationship between the AO and the weather across the mid-latitudes is much weaker in summer and can even be opposite of that in winter.  For now the best forecast is probably one of persistence, which would favor an overall negative AO into early May"

PS. Just realized the analysis has aged a bit being from April 11
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: AmbiValent on April 20, 2016, 04:00:38 PM
I'm of the same opinion. The ice is in such a state that one of these years a really bad summer weather pattern will push way too much ice out the Fram Strait in a single drawn-out event. And there we'll be, unable turn things around, 80 years ahead of the warnings.
Even if the ice would completely melt out by September, it would still return in the winter, and people would just get used to it... many would only "get it" when the changes harm them personally.

https://xkcd.com/1321/
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: marcel_g on April 20, 2016, 04:07:54 PM
Am I wrong to assume the the breakup shown is an indication of the lack of thickness and poor condition of the ice?

My first thought exactly. I think you're spot on while there is never only one culprit but still, the ice could not grow in thickness as usual and as a result any movement has a greater impact which will have it's consequences when it comes to Albedo reduction etc.

We cannot know if this has happened frequently in the past but my feeling is "yes". This atmospheric pattern is very normal in the Arctic, and it is what provides mechanical energy to the  perennial Gyre and transpolar ocean currents. I am not convinced that the fact ice is thicker or thinner is a factor on the extent of cracking (actually much of the ice cracking right now is multi-year old and 2m thick).

What does the cracking induce during the melting season if May comes warm and sunny, that can be with no precedent "thanks" to AGW.

I wonder if another factor to consider with the amount cracking is the temperature of the ice, since colder ice is much stronger than warmer ice? Not sure who posted it, but I believe it was something like -20C ice is 5x stronger than -10C ice, so if the warmer temps over the winter had an effect not only on ice growth, but on the ice temperatures as well, then it could lead to increased cracking. I'm really speculating here though, I don't have any evidence,

And like the other lurkers who check in here daily, I'm finding this year to be really worrying. I knew the ice could melt out this fast, but I somehow didn't think it would, that it would take maybe a few more years. I also don't think it'll be a slow transition, mainly because of once it's a blue sea early enough it'll accumulate so much more solar energy, and open water will get waves, which will pull up more heat from below, etc.

The other disconcerting things about a near future abrupt transition are a) how radically a warmer arctic is already messing up the jet stream and weather patterns (and therefore global agriculture) and b) how much a much warmer arctic could accelerate Greenland Ice Sheet melt, now that we're starting to understand how much surface melt and albedo changes affect ice loss.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: marcel_g on April 20, 2016, 04:14:23 PM
I'm of the same opinion. The ice is in such a state that one of these years a really bad summer weather pattern will push way too much ice out the Fram Strait in a single drawn-out event. And there we'll be, unable turn things around, 80 years ahead of the warnings.
Even if the ice would completely melt out by September, it would still return in the winter, and people would just get used to it... many would only "get it" when the changes harm them personally.

https://xkcd.com/1321/

Oh man, that xkcd is too true. Maybe it'll become non-taboo for most people when people have to start abandoning Miami or something, or when there's a giant financial crash once everyone owning coastal properties and the banks holding the mortgages realize that the properties and the mortgages will soon be worthless. I feel like a lot of people don't want to talk about it because it's too depressing, rather than they don't care about it.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Buddy on April 20, 2016, 04:37:42 PM
Quote
I feel like a lot of people don't want to talk about it because it's too depressing, rather than they don't care about it.

It is like people during the "tech crash" from 2000 - 2003......they stopped opening their retirement account statements because they didn't want to face the truth, it was too painful.

When insurance rates for homes eventually AREN'T subsidized by state or federal governments....those housing prices are going to GO DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY.  When the real cost to insure them is born by the house owner....it will be too expensive.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/banking/starting-april-1-homeowners-to-see-subsidized-flood-insurance-phased-out/2223297 (http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/banking/starting-april-1-homeowners-to-see-subsidized-flood-insurance-phased-out/2223297)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on April 20, 2016, 04:56:37 PM
Quote
Even if the ice would completely melt out by September, it would still return in the winter

Snow on thin ice, having held the heat in, gone again late-spring. The problem with vanishing ice in summer is that is when the Arctic performs its planetary refrigeration. Without reflection of solar and the equatorial gradient, the atmosphere will become quickly unhinged.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on April 20, 2016, 05:40:46 PM
Quote
Even if the ice would completely melt out by September, it would still return in the winter

Snow on thin ice, having held the heat in, gone again late-spring. The problem with vanishing ice in summer is that is when the Arctic performs its planetary refrigeration. Without reflection of solar and the equatorial gradient, the atmosphere will become quickly unhinged.

I agree a small difference now could widen to a large difference late in the melt season due to albedo effects. Volume does not seem all that much lower than past seasons so I doubt a huge effect this year. Volume products could be wrong so I don't completely rule it out.

Even if we did get an exceptional melt this year:
The ice is only going to vanish towards the very end of the melt season, it isn't going to vanish by the start of summer. Most snowfall is in autumn, and with no ice, that cannot be supported, so there is little snow for insulation, so the ice thickens quickly. Following winter's ice may be thicker than normal but with little snow. By the second year almost everything is likely back to near to trend.

While the summer albedo feedback is destabilising, the winter thickness growth feedback is stabilising and seems likely to overwhelm the summer albedo feedback destabilising effect.

Small trend changes causing weather pattern changes causing species loss and consequent effects  seems more concerning to me than some flip in Arctic sea ice state to another for the near term. Longer term ocean temp increases might make some sort of flip may well become more of a risk but I doubt such a risk is imminent.

(There are a couple of papers supporting this Tietsche et al and Schröder and Connolley. If other models behaved differently, I think we would know about it.)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: AmbiValent on April 20, 2016, 06:06:12 PM
crandles, even if a new equilibrium was reached, it would still mean repeated meltouts or near-meltouts. And that would mean that in areas of the Arctic where the ice melts earlier there will be excess heat that would increase melting processes in the Permafrost regions and Greenland. And either would have bad consequences...
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Juan C. García on April 20, 2016, 06:10:55 PM
I'm of the same opinion. The ice is in such a state that one of these years a really bad summer weather pattern will push way too much ice out the Fram Strait in a single drawn-out event. And there we'll be, unable turn things around, 80 years ahead of the warnings.
Even if the ice would completely melt out by September, it would still return in the winter, and people would just get used to it... many would only "get it" when the changes harm them personally.

The first question is how much Arctic sea ice can we loose this summer and the second question is how much warmer does Greenland will be. It does not need to be a great Greenland ice melt. Just enough to make sure that the process of losing coastal cities is starting and I hope this will trigger that the humanity will care about AGW, the prevention and the adaptation.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Archimid on April 20, 2016, 06:43:05 PM
Quote
While the summer albedo feedback is destabilising, the winter thickness growth feedback is stabilising and seems likely to overwhelm the summer albedo feedback destabilising effect.

How can you possibly know that? To the best of my knowledge, there has been ice cover on the arctic for a very long time. If  the sea ice disappears, the Arctic  will be in a completely different initial state for the freezing season. For as long as it has been studied, refreezing happens with millions of square kilometers of ice already present. That means that ocean temperature will be very different, humidity will be different, wave action and currents will be different and who know how many other factors.

 Granted the Arctic is dark for a very long time, so some refreezing  will probably occur at some point but it will be very late in the season and the warmer waters will melt it very fast come spring. And that's only the first year. After that the waters will get warmer with the longer summers, delaying refreeze even more, if at all.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 20, 2016, 07:21:50 PM
Quote
Even if the ice would completely melt out by September, it would still return in the winter

Snow on thin ice, having held the heat in, gone again late-spring. The problem with vanishing ice in summer is that is when the Arctic performs its planetary refrigeration. Without reflection of solar and the equatorial gradient, the atmosphere will become quickly unhinged.

<snippage>
Even if we did get an exceptional melt this year:
The ice is only going to vanish towards the very end of the melt season, it isn't going to vanish by the start of summer. Most snowfall is in autumn, and with no ice, that cannot be supported, so there is little snow for insulation, so the ice thickens quickly. Following winter's ice may be thicker than normal but with little snow. By the second year almost everything is likely back to near to trend.

While the summer albedo feedback is destabilising, the winter thickness growth feedback is stabilising and seems likely to overwhelm the summer albedo feedback destabilising effect.
<more snippage>

I disagree with your first point pretty strongly and your second mildly.  For one thing, both depend on status quo ante - that conditions besides the ice or lack thereof will stay the same.  They won't.  They aren't now.  Late open water in the Arctic translates into the availability of both heat and moisture required for snow.  It will happen, as low snowfall in winter is a direct product of the lack of them.  You can't depend on a lack of snow to permit robust freezing.

I'm dubious of your assertion that winter freezing will overwhelm summer  low albedo.  What would be more correct is to compare summer heat uptake with winter heat loss from the ocean.  Ice is a buffer for that, but after the first 50CM or so, it becomes a major hindrance to heat loss.  So, as a result not enough of that low albedo driven heat accumulation will get re-radiated. 

I think that is exactly what we see currently - the cumulative effect of multiple seasons of additional residual retained heat, accumulated in the system.  So in short, I don't think winter refreeze will save us from continued more precipitous summer decline, until we drop down to ~1,000,000 KM2 +/-. 

Once we reach that I think it may be some decades before enough heat accumulates such that the sea ice is eradicated entirely in summer, leaving just the various rapidly decaying Arctic ice caps, such as Greenland.  But getting there now, I think may be quite precipitous - much faster than most of us - including me - believed previously.  Our error I think was overlooking winter warming.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 20, 2016, 07:28:19 PM
Quote
Even if the ice would completely melt out by September, it would still return in the winter
...The problem with vanishing ice in summer is that is when the Arctic performs its planetary refrigeration. Without reflection of solar and the equatorial gradient, the atmosphere will become quickly unhinged.
And here I think we have the most apt and succinct characterizations yet, of what I think we are about to experience with our climate.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 20, 2016, 07:32:59 PM
O-Buoy 14 is gradually defrosting. and an Arctic Ocean Flux Buoy  is now visible in the distance:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#OBuoy14 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#OBuoy14)

The yellow blob in the foreground may well be Ice Tethered Profiler 89. Here's what it reveals also:
Thank you Jim.  I'm particularly concerned about the warm layer setting up (-0.4C) between 50 and 75 M in depth.  Sitting right there is reservoir with enough heat to chew up 20-30CM of ice, just on it's own, if it got transferred to the ice. Implications anyone?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 20, 2016, 07:41:46 PM
Am I wrong to assume the the breakup shown is an indication of the lack of thickness and poor condition of the ice?

My first thought exactly. I think you're spot on while there is never only one culprit but still, the ice could not grow in thickness as usual and as a result any movement has a greater impact which will have it's consequences when it comes to Albedo reduction etc.

We cannot know if this has happened frequently in the past but my feeling is "yes". This atmospheric pattern is very normal in the Arctic, and it is what provides mechanical energy to the  perennial Gyre and transpolar ocean currents. I am not convinced that the fact ice is thicker or thinner is a factor on the extent of cracking (actually much of the ice cracking right now is multi-year old and 2m thick).

What does the cracking induce during the melting season if May comes warm and sunny, that can be with no precedent "thanks" to AGW.

I wonder if another factor to consider with the amount cracking is the temperature of the ice, since colder ice is much stronger than warmer ice? Not sure who posted it, but I believe it was something like -20C ice is 5x stronger than -10C ice, so if the warmer temps over the winter had an effect not only on ice growth, but on the ice temperatures as well, then it could lead to increased cracking. I'm really speculating here though, I don't have any evidence,

And like the other lurkers who check in here daily, I'm finding this year to be really worrying.

<SNIPPAGE>
That would have been me, among others. Yes, ice loses significant mechanical strength as it warms, and I think that is a factor in what we are seeing in the Beaufort and elsewhere this year. The Beaufort in particular is germane because that shattered expanse contains by some estimations close to a third of the remaining 3+ year old MYI.

Your concern is well founded.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on April 20, 2016, 07:49:54 PM
Ignoring "the atmosphere will become quickly unhinged" bit for a starter:  I think winter open-water heat loss followed by ice growth will keep the Arctic Ocean in a moderately static cycle of losing more and more ice cover (& volume) during the summer and getting most of it back in the winter.

Now bringing back "the atmosphere will become quickly unhinged" bit:  At some date this unhinged weather will reach a mostly ice-free Arctic and mix the reservoir of warm deep water with the less dense surface water, and - presto - a year-round functionally ice-free Arctic Ocean.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on April 20, 2016, 08:08:31 PM
Quote
While the summer albedo feedback is destabilising, the winter thickness growth feedback is stabilising and seems likely to overwhelm the summer albedo feedback destabilising effect.

How can you possibly know that? To the best of my knowledge, there has been ice cover on the arctic for a very long time. If  the sea ice disappears, the Arctic  will be in a completely different initial state for the freezing season. For as long as it has been studied, refreezing happens with millions of square kilometers of ice already present. That means that ocean temperature will be very different, humidity will be different, wave action and currents will be different and who know how many other factors.

 Granted the Arctic is dark for a very long time, so some refreezing  will probably occur at some point but it will be very late in the season and the warmer waters will melt it very fast come spring. And that's only the first year. After that the waters will get warmer with the longer summers, delaying refreeze even more, if at all.

I am not saying there isn't a downward trend; there is and it is more pronounced in Summer than Winter.

I think I  expressed what you quoted very badly. 'likely to overwhelm' was the wrong phase which might appear to imply the summer albedo instability will disappear as it is overwhelmed. It won't disappear, it will remain dominant in summer and probably grow in strength.

While I expect strength of both to grow, I don't expect the summer albedo instability to grow and overwhelm the winter thickness growth feedback such that a flip in state becomes possible at least not for some considerable time.

Sorry I expressed that badly.

How do I reach such a conclusion?
If you are concerned about lots of factors potentially changing, modelling the important physics seems a sensible place to start. I gave references for 2 different models that tried instantaneous removal of sea ice. As I said, if other models behaved differently, I think we would know about it.

If you think there are bound to be important factors not included in the models, why would this be? I would expect modellers to try to include the important physics in their models first, but perhaps there are some things that are difficult to model. Lots of models doing wildly different things would be a bad sign. However,

(https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/_/rsrc/1452976336289/longterm/Obs%20vs%20models%20September%20SIE%202015.jpg?height=281&width=400)

shows lots of models (and other graphs will show lots more models) and most (if not all where we can see) show slowdown in rate of ice loss as ice approaches zero. How many show some sort of flip behaviour?

The models have wildly different levels of ice but their behaviour seems similar. To me, this adds to a sense of overall stability in the system.

I don't think this means there is zero chance of a flip between different states but I would suggest it makes it unlikely rather than likely.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on April 20, 2016, 08:36:08 PM
(https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3824/9586307013_77132e9dd4_o.jpg)

This seems pretty hard to overcome to me.

The growth rates will all be lower with milder temperatures but the shape remains. Also if there was a significant ocean warming effect, wouldn't we expect to see rapid ice extent growth delayed by more than about a week that we have seen so far?

With the graph shape above, losing a week so far and maybe another week over the next decade or two, isn't going to affect the maximum ice volume much. The main part of the volume loss in past decades has been thick multi-year ice. With that gone, any more ice melted in summer tends to mainly grow back in winter.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Siffy on April 20, 2016, 09:04:19 PM
(https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3824/9586307013_77132e9dd4_o.jpg)

This seems pretty hard to overcome to me.

The growth rates will all be lower with milder temperatures but the shape remains. Also if there was a significant ocean warming effect, wouldn't we expect to see rapid ice extent growth delayed by more than about a week that we have seen so far?

With the graph shape above, losing a week so far and maybe another week over the next decade or two, isn't going to affect the maximum ice volume much. The main part of the volume loss in past decades has been thick multi-year ice. With that gone, any more ice melted in summer tends to mainly grow back in winter.

I suspect you're not taking into account how aggressive the albedo loss feedback is, the main game changer will be when surface melt starts in a significant fashion at or before the peak of insolation comes instead of after. I agree a week of more open ocean towards the end of the melt season doesn't really matter much as the energy just isn't there.

Once you start getting that energy from peak insolation being absorbed instead of bounced away is when you'll see the tipping point in action.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 20, 2016, 10:17:13 PM
(https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3824/9586307013_77132e9dd4_o.jpg)
This is way to simple a model to use to effectively support your conclusion, I think.  Air temperature?  Sea water temperature?  Snow cover?  Age of the ice? - off the top of my head.

Too many variables that aren't referenced here.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Nick_Naylor on April 20, 2016, 10:24:54 PM
Quote
Even if the ice would completely melt out by September, it would still return in the winter
...The problem with vanishing ice in summer is that is when the Arctic performs its planetary refrigeration. Without reflection of solar and the equatorial gradient, the atmosphere will become quickly unhinged.
And here I think we have the most apt and succinct characterizations yet, of what I think we are about to experience with our climate.

I worry about the rate of heat escaping the Arctic after a summer where enough ice is lost so that seawater temperatures are significantly higher than Earth has seen in recent millennia. It's not too hard to remember what happened after the 2012 melt season, when Sandy took the unprecedented left hook into the US Northeast coast. How much more warming before Sandy looks like a mere warning?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: oren on April 20, 2016, 10:46:47 PM
All of the above was hotly debated a while ago in the "Slow Transition" thread started by Chris Reynolds. Basically, according to models even a totally ice-free arctic will bounce back in the following years, as the winter contains enough freezing degree days (FDDs) to recreate first-year ice of almost the same thickness regardless of initial conditions. So a "bad luck" year that melted all the ice would not cause a tipping point. Hence a slow transition to an ice-free state and not an irrevocable meltdown. At the time I thought the work was very convincing at my basic level of knowledge, but still felt it was missing something in its assumptions.

I didn't mean to start a whole theoretical discussion when I referenced that important work (maybe the thread should be revived? Or hopefully Chris will summarize it better than my poor efforts here), I just meant to point out that maybe this year might provide an example of where the assumptions could be wrong. Total number of FDDs was much lower than normal, and the melting season seems to have started much earlier than normal.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Archimid on April 20, 2016, 11:01:35 PM

While I expect strength of both to grow, I don't expect the summer albedo instability to grow and overwhelm the winter thickness growth feedback such that a flip in state becomes possible at least not for some considerable time.


I disagree.  If 0 sea ice volume is reached at any point,  it will only refreeze to a maximum volume of around 15k KM3. Evenly spread over the whole arctic that's  an average ice thickness of about 1m. A 1 m  thickness ice will melt by June, in years like this one, maybe even May. So once 0 or functionally close to 0 is reached, the total albedo increase will be much higher the following year.



Quote

How do I reach such a conclusion?
If you are concerned about lots of factors potentially changing, modelling the important physics seems a sensible place to start. I gave references for 2 different models that tried instantaneous removal of sea ice. As I said, if other models behaved differently, I think we would know about it.


My fear in this regard is that all models are made with the assumption of having an ice cap in the north pole. Having no ice will to quote A-Team.  "become quickly unhinged". So many of the most influential variables and proceses in the models won't be even valid. Only the big forcings like  the Sun and its incidence on the Arctic and local geography will remain the same.  This, I think, will render the models useless.


Quote

If you think there are bound to be important factors not included in the models, why would this be? I would expect modellers to try to include the important physics in their models first, but perhaps there are some things that are difficult to model.

Of course, but they can not include physical phenomena that have never occurred, because there has always been(as far as we are concerned)  a north pole covered in ice.

Quote
Lots of models doing wildly different things would be a bad sign. However,

(https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/_/rsrc/1452976336289/longterm/Obs%20vs%20models%20September%20SIE%202015.jpg?height=281&width=400)

shows lots of models (and other graphs will show lots more models) and most (if not all where we can see) show slowdown in rate of ice loss as ice approaches zero. How many show some sort of flip behaviour?

None, but none of them start with an arctic at 0 ice, and if they do, they can only be wild speculation, because the initial conditions will be very different and unpredictable(?).
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Archimid on April 21, 2016, 12:06:29 AM
All of the above was hotly debated a while ago in the "Slow Transition" thread started by Chris Reynolds. Basically, according to models even a totally ice-free arctic will bounce back in the following years, as the winter contains enough freezing degree days (FDDs) to recreate first-year ice of almost the same thickness regardless of initial conditions. So a "bad luck" year that melted all the ice would not cause a tipping point. Hence a slow transition to an ice-free state and not an irrevocable meltdown. At the time I thought the work was very convincing at my basic level of knowledge, but still felt it was missing something in its assumptions.

I didn't mean to start a whole theoretical discussion when I referenced that important work (maybe the thread should be revived? Or hopefully Chris will summarize it better than my poor efforts here), I just meant to point out that maybe this year might provide an example of where the assumptions could be wrong. Total number of FDDs was much lower than normal, and the melting season seems to have started much earlier than normal.

Do you have a link to that thread? I searched but could't find it. If the reason they concluded it will be  a slow transition was the freezing degree days, it might need to be reopened.
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/index_80_t2m.html (http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/index_80_t2m.html)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 21, 2016, 12:51:40 AM
None, but none of them start with an arctic at 0 ice, and if they do, they can only be wild speculation, because the initial conditions will be very different and unpredictable(?).
Wild speculation and wildly unpredictable.  Except when it isn't. That I think is where A-team's "Unhinged" comes from.  Energy will be trying to redistribute itself around the system without the previous stable heat engines to move it.  Some places will develop new semi permanent features (like the RRR of North Pacific fame).  Other places may find things akin to trying to predict the topology of the surface of a boiling pot. The Caribbean and Eastern Seaboard coastlines of N. America may fall into the later category.

I think it is true the Arctic will not be permanently ice free for some time to come, as there will be sufficient variation in weather to permit summers cool enough to retain ice.  In that regime though, we will look back at years like 2012 as "good" ones.

There will be a lot more bleed off of heat from open water as there was with 2012.   But the problem of hoping for that, is that there are other years like 2011 with only marginally (about 1.8 million more KM2 of ice) greater extent.  I don't thing the lower extent of 2012 in fall was what led to 2013.  Both had over 9 million KM2 of open water to radiate from.  What saved 2013 was lucky weather, not extra heat loss.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Michael Hauber on April 21, 2016, 01:12:53 AM
Hudson Bay totally melts each year, but forms ice again in winter.  Why should the Arctic basin be different?

Also the chart comparing model predictions against actual conditions is for CMIP4.  CMIP5 models are more aggressive and the model vs reality comparison is pretty close.

edit:  What is most important for albedo feedbacks is what happens around June 21 - peak solar insolation.  Ice free at Sep 21 is not particularly important because at that date the sun is pretty much gone and there is no significant feedback.

A quick look at NSIDC data suggests 21 June was a bit over 12m in the early 80s.  During 2012 it dropped to 10.3m.  So we have used up only a small amount of the potential albedo feedback.  Currently the ice edge at June 21 is only partially inside the Arctic Basin, and is much shorter than it might otherwise be if not constrained as much by land as it is.  I would suggest that as the ice edge in June advances further to cover the complete length from Laptev to Beaufort that the rate of ice area drop in June will get faster and the albedo feedback impact will increase at a more rapid rate  Then when we hit 0 ice in June the impact of albedo feedback will stop going up.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: oren on April 21, 2016, 01:33:20 AM
All of the above was hotly debated a while ago in the "Slow Transition" thread started by Chris Reynolds. Basically, according to models even a totally ice-free arctic will bounce back in the following years, as the winter contains enough freezing degree days (FDDs) to recreate first-year ice of almost the same thickness regardless of initial conditions. So a "bad luck" year that melted all the ice would not cause a tipping point. Hence a slow transition to an ice-free state and not an irrevocable meltdown. At the time I thought the work was very convincing at my basic level of knowledge, but still felt it was missing something in its assumptions.

I didn't mean to start a whole theoretical discussion when I referenced that important work (maybe the thread should be revived? Or hopefully Chris will summarize it better than my poor efforts here), I just meant to point out that maybe this year might provide an example of where the assumptions could be wrong. Total number of FDDs was much lower than normal, and the melting season seems to have started much earlier than normal.

Do you have a link to that thread? I searched but could't find it. If the reason they concluded it will be  a slow transition was the freezing degree days, it might need to be reopened.
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/index_80_t2m.html (http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/index_80_t2m.html)

This is the thread (warning: a long one)
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,933.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,933.0.html)

And here is a post on Chris's blog (Dosbat) explaining it all - The Slow Transition: The Thickness Growth Feedback
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.il/2015/01/the-slow-transition-thickness-growth.html (http://dosbat.blogspot.co.il/2015/01/the-slow-transition-thickness-growth.html)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Archimid on April 21, 2016, 02:56:08 AM

This is the thread (warning: a long one)
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,933.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,933.0.html)

And here is a post on Chris's blog (Dosbat) explaining it all - The Slow Transition: The Thickness Growth Feedback
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.il/2015/01/the-slow-transition-thickness-growth.html (http://dosbat.blogspot.co.il/2015/01/the-slow-transition-thickness-growth.html)

Thanks!
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: 6roucho on April 21, 2016, 05:02:27 AM
Interesting discussions of models vs. rapid change there.

There's a saying in finance that black swans have black feathers. Complex systems may include other complex systems. Whether those are stabilising or de-stabilising depends on their own propensity for rapid change, and their combined effect can quickly become impossible to calculate, even if we understand the physics of each of them quite well. The trigger for a tipping point can thus be unexpected.

As a sea ice layman I can't see any reason why a combination of substantially higher winter temperatures, weather, the relative absence of multi-year ice, and a longer melt season can't result in a substantially ice-free Arctic any year now. What physics prevents that?

Of course the intra-seasonal feedbacks leading to the state of the ice in following years are more complex, but that cuts both ways too. Reality's a great physics lab.

One thing we know is that models break in these situations. So-called black swan events are by definition instances of model incompleteness. Declaring them in or out of bounds based on model extrapolations thus becomes circular.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: epiphyte on April 21, 2016, 05:50:25 AM

One thing we know is that models break in these situations. So-called black swan events are by definition instances of model incompleteness. Declaring them in or out of bounds based on model extrapolations thus becomes circular.

Exactly.

... not to mention that predicting increasingly chaotic system behavior based on comparing current with past day-by-day ice extent is like guessing the patient's prognosis by looking at his shadow in the sunlight.

... or that at this point, the effect of an unexpected departure from the model is far more dramatic on the downside than on the upside. Think of it as a fighter jet flying 50 feet above the ground. Everything looks, and may well in fact be, normal. But the pilot knows that there are a million unlikely things that could could change that in an instant; things that would be insignificant at an even slightly higher altitude. At this height though, any one of them could kill him before he even knew it.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: sofouuk on April 21, 2016, 10:36:58 AM
Hudson Bay totally melts each year, but forms ice again in winter.  Why should the Arctic basin be different?
on this topic I'm in (virtually) complete agreement with crandles and Michael, but one difference is presumably the amount of mixing - I guess it would be significantly greater in an ice free September Arctic Ocean than in the Hudson, as A-Team says, tho I've no idea how much that would matter; even with plenty of mixing heat is going to vent and the autumn snow falls into water, leading to generally greater winter thickening. yes there are plenty of unknowns, but the scientists who model this for a living don't seem to think they're very important, and I'm willing to defer to them in the same way that I defer to scientists who study climate change for a living
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 21, 2016, 12:09:37 PM
Plummeting.  And no sign of it slowing down

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FYmRN5eU.jpg&hash=757bb110a6c2bd64dc6afeb5c4208845)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on April 21, 2016, 02:49:24 PM
I benefited from a refresher on the Great Arctic Cyclone of August 2012. We had plenty of quality coverage here on the forums and there was journal analysis later.

Quote
On 2 August 2012 a dramatic storm formed over Siberia, moved into the Arctic, and died in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago on 14 August. During its lifetime its central pressure dropped to 966 hPa, leading it to be dubbed ‘The Great Arctic Cyclone of August 2012’. This cyclone occurred during a period when the sea ice extent was on the way to reaching a new satellite-era low, and its intense behavior was related to baroclinicity and a tropopause polar vortex.

The pressure of the storm was the lowest of all Arctic August storms over our record starting in 1979, and the system was also the most extreme when a combination of key cyclone properties was considered even though climatologically summer is a ‘quiet’ time in the Arctic... http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL054259/full (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL054259/full) free
There were 92 subsequent articles that cited this early paper; it takes time for scientific snowflakes to settle so the 7 from 2016 would be the best place to see where the storm analysis is today:

* Physical processes contributing to an ice free Beaufort Sea during September 2012

* Wind and wave influences on sea ice floe size and leads in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas during the summer‐fall transition 2014

* Recent changes in sea ice area flux through the Beaufort Sea during the summer

* Enhancement of Arctic storm activity in relation to permafrost degradation in eastern Siberia

* The impact of radiosonde data on forecasting sea‐ice distribution along the Northern Sea Route during an extremely developed cyclone

* Axisymmetric Structure of the Long Lasting Summer Arctic cyclones

* Three Dimensional Structures of the Arctic Cyclones
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 21, 2016, 04:34:27 PM
I'm at the EGU General Assembly today and attended a press conference earlier on Arctic sea ice loss. It seems that sea ice volume according to CryoSat-2 is as low as 2012. Will try to post better images later, but here are two from the press conference.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 21, 2016, 04:51:49 PM
I'm at the EGU General Assembly today and attended a press conference earlier on Arctic sea ice loss. It seems that sea ice volume according to CryoSat-2 is as low as 2012. Will try to post better images later, but here are two from the press conference.

The linked EGU General Assembly article discusses reasons why 2016 could set a new low summer minimum Arctic sea ice extent record:

http://www.carbonbrief.org/arctic-sea-ice-could-shrink-to-record-low-this-summer-say-scientists (http://www.carbonbrief.org/arctic-sea-ice-could-shrink-to-record-low-this-summer-say-scientists)

Extract: "The record low for the summer minimum currently stands at 3.41m square kilometres, from 2012.
Speaking to Carbon Brief at EGU, Dr Marcel Nicolaus, a sea ice physicist at the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, says the 2016 summer could equal, or surpass, this record.
Sea ice conditions over the recent months are similar to those seen before the 2012 record, Nicolaus says. He identifies three main reasons why this year’s summer minimum could rival 2012:
“We did see a stronger melt last summer than usual, so we went into the winter in November with thinner ice than the previous years. We saw, due to the warming, less freezing and less build-up of ice mass [during winter]. And we do see a shift of secure ice towards the northern end of the Fram Strait of the Atlantic Ocean, where it’s very likely to be exported [away from the Arctic and into the North Atlantic] over the course of spring and summer.”"
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 21, 2016, 06:59:18 PM
These reasons won’t guarantee a new record, Nicolaus adds, because sea ice melt also depends on the warmth and storminess of spring and summer – but they do boost the odds.

And the article brings more comments from other scientists along the same lines.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 21, 2016, 07:10:08 PM
If one is to put any belief in the absolutely most recent GFS 12Z run the big high pressure should weaken and a switch to more cyclonic weather should emerge by the beginning of May. At least on the Atlantic side together with a nonexistent Greenland high pressure.

If the EURO backs the scenario in the coming runs we may dodge a bullet.

In any case, it is troublesome that the SIV (Sea Ice Volume) is as low as it was during 2012. The big question is whether we will see a strong high pressure over the North American side or not.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 21, 2016, 07:27:15 PM
this and not only is it low, it's also in a "bad" shape, loose floats glued together by thin ice, once all that stuff starts drifting around we shall get a very low albedo as well as low area, not to forget about the by far greater surface attacked by warm(er) waters.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 21, 2016, 10:47:06 PM
Just like one year ago, we are reaching that moment when the recently open sea seems to refreeze but not getting there ... change of sign in the radiation budget Andreas?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 22, 2016, 03:07:51 AM
Just keeps getting worse and worse.



(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FJQN7V3N.jpg&hash=aee095dcc0b9925e76d86a98f2905393)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 22, 2016, 03:29:44 AM
Here's what the cci folks think will happen a week out.

Snow rolling up to the Kara, and within a couple hundred KM of the Beaufort/CAA.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: bbr2314 on April 22, 2016, 04:17:07 AM
DMI shows nearly-open water expanding along the Alaskan shoreline through the next few days. With the polar ridging/heat projected to expand into the Beaufort in the intermediate timeframe this thin ice could quickly give way to open water, with the Bering Strait already nearly clear (in parts) as well.

This turns the melting front on the "Pacific" side of the Arctic into a massacre, spanning from Russia to the CAA instead of being stuck below the Bering Strait through the early summer, as in previous years. While the Atlantic side's shabbiness is concerning, the orientation of ice mass on the Pacific side may turn out to be just as damaging, given what has transpired with the Beaufort Gyre (massive cracking).

The ensuing feedback from the albedo decrease at the height of solar insolation is likely a very bad sign for what's coming this summer.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Focean.dmi.dk%2Fanim%2Fplots%2Fice.arc.121.png&hash=82d515f5b606e7dc5d7121e3032bd7f3)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on April 22, 2016, 05:07:54 AM
There is much about conditions in the Arctic that portend early and possibly massive melting this melting season, and many posts on these threads admirably describe these. (Do you hear the "but" coming?  ::))

There is one feature that I'm seeing that is already in place that may prevent a record minimum this year.  (Weather, of course, is the #1 influence, and we don't know what that will be like.)  It looks to me that the Beaufort Gyre, while clearing the near-shores of ice these days, is also moving some of the thickest CAB ice to the northern part of the Beaufort Sea (or just north of that) and neighboring areas.  If this continues to develop, it will be not a "thin" line of thick ice attempting to protect the thin interior ice (which has been the set-up in some years, where it sometimes holds and other years it melts), but a fairly massive bulky lot of ice.  Therefore, I don't see a lot of CAB melting out on the Pacific/Alaska side this summer.

Am I off base?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: cesium62 on April 22, 2016, 06:04:52 AM
(https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3824/9586307013_77132e9dd4_o.jpg)

This seems pretty hard to overcome to me.

The growth rates will all be lower with milder temperatures but the shape remains. Also if there was a significant ocean warming effect, wouldn't we expect to see rapid ice extent growth delayed by more than about a week that we have seen so far?

With the graph shape above, losing a week so far and maybe another week over the next decade or two, isn't going to affect the maximum ice volume much. The main part of the volume loss in past decades has been thick multi-year ice. With that gone, any more ice melted in summer tends to mainly grow back in winter.

Yes, but once you lose all the multi-year ice, any ice that freezes in winter melts by the end of summer.  (modulo weather)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: cesium62 on April 22, 2016, 06:09:41 AM
Hudson Bay totally melts each year, but forms ice again in winter.  Why should the Arctic basin be different?

Hudson Bay is a more enclosed body of water and contains fresher water than the Arctic as a whole.

[I'm saying that implies anything.  I'm just pointing out it's different.]
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: cesium62 on April 22, 2016, 07:48:24 AM
There is much about conditions in the Arctic that portend early and possibly massive melting this melting season, and many posts on these threads admirably describe these. (Do you hear the "but" coming?  ::))

There is one feature that I'm seeing that is already in place that may prevent a record minimum this year.  (Weather, of course, is the #1 influence, and we don't know what that will be like.)  It looks to me that the Beaufort Gyre, while clearing the near-shores of ice these days, is also moving some of the thickest CAB ice to the northern part of the Beaufort Sea (or just north of that) and neighboring areas.  If this continues to develop, it will be not a "thin" line of thick ice attempting to protect the thin interior ice (which has been the set-up in some years, where it sometimes holds and other years it melts), but a fairly massive bulky lot of ice.  Therefore, I don't see a lot of CAB melting out on the Pacific/Alaska side this summer.

Am I off base?

Yes, a lot like last year.  And this year doesn't seem as warm around Alaska as last year.  On the other hand, the ice seems thinner overall.

arctic-news.blogspot.com has a nice comparison graphic: (https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-x8HdlsIw3lE/VwNhth5RpYI/AAAAAAAAUFQ/IgGOBF3BVEQOyZE2INV_5TaTNvJf3WCtg/s640/Thickness-Apr-3-cr.png)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: bbr2314 on April 22, 2016, 08:48:07 AM
If HYCOM is accurate a majority of the AK coast will open up over the next week with the Bering clearing out and Fram export getting ready to rumble. The latest GFS/EURO show multiple surges of melt weather deep into the Arctic in the medium/long-range and April seems poised to end with a bang.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww7320.nrlssc.navy.mil%2FhycomARC%2Fnavo%2Farcticictn%2Fnowcast%2Fictn2016042018_2016042800_042_arcticictn.001.gif&hash=017416a2272b87a71eb5c91fc319e8e1)

EURO shows a blowtorch into Beaufort beginning at D5 and continuing through D10. Wow.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tropicaltidbits.com%2Fanalysis%2Fmodels%2Fecmwf%2F2016042200%2Fecmwf_T850_namer_10.png&hash=826031398cd0c3e1821e64949d760243)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on April 22, 2016, 08:57:44 AM
Just like one year ago, we are reaching that moment when the recently open sea seems to refreeze but not getting there ... change of sign in the radiation budget Andreas?
I wish I could answer that question. I guess the reason that this information is not so easy to find is that it isn't all that easy to measure. Only very few weather stations seem to report incoming shortwave and longwave radiation .
But the significance of the areas which are opening now is of course that they absorb the short wavelengths which are now coming in more strongly. This absorption is not all taking place at the surface and therefore heats a quite large volume which makes the temperature rise so much slower than that seen on snow free land.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 22, 2016, 11:22:27 AM
There is much about conditions in the Arctic that portend early and possibly massive melting this melting season, and many posts on these threads admirably describe these. (Do you hear the "but" coming?  ::))

There is one feature that I'm seeing that is already in place that may prevent a record minimum this year.  (Weather, of course, is the #1 influence, and we don't know what that will be like.)  It looks to me that the Beaufort Gyre, while clearing the near-shores of ice these days, is also moving some of the thickest CAB ice to the northern part of the Beaufort Sea (or just north of that) and neighboring areas.  If this continues to develop, it will be not a "thin" line of thick ice attempting to protect the thin interior ice (which has been the set-up in some years, where it sometimes holds and other years it melts), but a fairly massive bulky lot of ice.  Therefore, I don't see a lot of CAB melting out on the Pacific/Alaska side this summer.

Am I off base?


Yes
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 22, 2016, 11:27:57 AM
If HYCOM is accurate a majority of the AK coast will open up over the next week with the Bering clearing out and Fram export getting ready to rumble. The latest GFS/EURO show multiple surges of melt weather deep into the Arctic in the medium/long-range and April seems poised to end with a bang.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww7320.nrlssc.navy.mil%2FhycomARC%2Fnavo%2Farcticictn%2Fnowcast%2Fictn2016042018_2016042800_042_arcticictn.001.gif&hash=017416a2272b87a71eb5c91fc319e8e1)

EURO shows a blowtorch into Beaufort beginning at D5 and continuing through D10. Wow.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tropicaltidbits.com%2Fanalysis%2Fmodels%2Fecmwf%2F2016042200%2Fecmwf_T850_namer_10.png&hash=826031398cd0c3e1821e64949d760243)

Hycom will not be right
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 22, 2016, 12:19:45 PM
Hycom will not be right

In what way will Hycom "not be right"?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#Beaufort (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#Beaufort)

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Buddy on April 22, 2016, 12:57:22 PM
Quote
If HYCOM is accurate a majority of the AK coast will open up over the next week with the Bering clearing out and Fram export getting ready to rumble. The latest GFS/EURO show multiple surges of melt weather deep into the Arctic in the medium/long-range and April seems poised to end with a bang.

CCI Reanalyzer shows continued warm anomaly to persist over the next week in the Arctic:  3 - 5 degrees C above normal.  Northern coast of Alaska.......north-central coast of Russia.....and southern and western Greenland/northeastern Canada being the main culprits.

The "set up" for the melting season continues to play out in a bad way (accelerated melting).  There are now too many "weak spots" in the Arctic ice for mother nature to attack.  And that is why as we get down "towards the end" of the Arctic ice (these last 3 - 5 years IMHO)....it can go rather quickly.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on April 22, 2016, 02:30:11 PM
The Beaufort is making for a great animation over the next few days. Below is an overview of the entire Arctic Ocean for 01-21 Apr 16. I'll add a zoom animation for new Beaufort cracking development in a bit when the full April 21st arrives. These take a bit of special processing on the contrast side as there is a lot more in this Worldview imagery than white on white.

The second image below shows the situation on 20 Apr 16; the blue square shows the area zoomed to in the partial scene available for the 21st. The inverse is shown for the 21st to bring out the expanding crack system.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Nick_Naylor on April 22, 2016, 04:58:35 PM
The Earth can't take any more Captain - she's breaking up!
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on April 22, 2016, 05:25:39 PM
Just like one year ago, we are reaching that moment when the recently open sea seems to refreeze but not getting there ... change of sign in the radiation budget Andreas?

Or is it more likely the increased warming of Pacific current intrusion that Maslowski warned us about in 2011?  http://www.oc.nps.edu/NAME/Maslowski%20et%20al.%202012%20EPS%20Future%20of%20Arctic%20Sea%20Ice.pdf (http://www.oc.nps.edu/NAME/Maslowski%20et%20al.%202012%20EPS%20Future%20of%20Arctic%20Sea%20Ice.pdf)

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: CraigsIsland on April 22, 2016, 06:10:10 PM
huge hat tip to A-Team et al. on this site for the communication provided in graphical form - that animation of Beaufort is absolutely stunning and flawless in execution.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 22, 2016, 06:24:04 PM
I mis-read that as the Alaskan coast would be ice free not the majority would be ice free. 


My mistake.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Comradez on April 22, 2016, 06:35:52 PM
The Beaufort looks so bad.  I've seen it look like this in early June in some recent years.  This is at least a month ahead of schedule.

And this is coming at exactly the time in the season where these leads will not re-freeze over, and where they are getting more and more sun wattage.  If this were happening a month earlier, you could make the case that this would help the sea ice survive the summer by venting more heat from the ocean than it was taking in from the albedo change.  But not now.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on April 22, 2016, 08:42:27 PM
Quote
a month ahead of schedule..when these leads will not re-freeze over ... more and more sun.  If this were happening a month earlier this would help the sea ice survive... not now
I'll have to fish through the archives to see what and when the Beaufort last looked like this; i dimly recall animating this in 2012 or so. Looking now at just the 21 Apr 16 image, it would apper much more cracked at 250 m resolution than it appears at 1 km, making me wonder what a 10 m Sentinel 2A would reveal about the state of the ice.

The scene below takes a click (or open in new tab) to display at full size. I've processed this Aqua Modis image from the WorldView portal to emphasize the cracks, neither is not natural color (what you would see out an airplane window). I'll post the three week animation here along with the angular rotational velocity in a bit. (Did someone say above this weather is continuing to the end of the month!?!))

The third image uses three consecutive days, 19-21 Apr 16, dropped to grayscale and then reconstituted as RGB to show movement. The fourth image shows a peculiar non-arcuate region in the central upper third of the early two image at the maximal resolution available, 250 m.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 22, 2016, 08:43:58 PM
If this were happening a month earlier, you could make the case that this would help the sea ice survive the summer by venting more heat from the ocean than it was taking in from the albedo change.  But not now.

Can you please elaborate why one month later when there will be stronger insolation (higher angle) that would suddenly have the opposite effect?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Csnavywx on April 22, 2016, 09:32:46 PM
Long range ensemble runs keep positive height and surface pressure anomalies through the first week of May almost right where they are. Combined with the persistent negative pressure and height anomalies near the Bering/Aleutians, this favors southerly flow over the Beaufort, Chukchi and eventually the CAB itself, resulting in widespread warmer than normal temperatures. The details will vary a bit (indeed the high is forecast to temporarily weaken in a few days as a small upper low meanders around), but the large scale pattern looks to remain unchanged through early-mid May. If it continues much further past that, we'll have record early snow melt and melt ponding over a fairly large area.

The upcoming warm episode in western Siberia and a few days later in NW Canada/AK looks to remove most of the remaining snow cover over those areas. In fact, the latest EC run begins developing an omega block over western Canada from day 7 onwards, which, if correct, would melt the snowpack back all the way to the Arctic Coast right around the start of May. Ensembles show some support for it.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on April 22, 2016, 10:51:37 PM
Very helpful weather digest, thx cs.

Here is the movement of the Beaufort Gyre for 01 - 21 Apr 2016. The second view emphasizes development of what seems to be open water and slush. These animations are open source, feel free to circulate.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 22, 2016, 11:47:21 PM
A-Team, I had a cursory look at cracking in earlier years, but 2012 seemed to start later, and 2015 was less extensive at this time of year. But I would have to check more thoroughly to be sure.

Still, I think what we're seeing now, is quite unprecedented.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on April 23, 2016, 12:20:45 AM
It looks like this particular Aqua satellite goes back to 08 May 2012 on Nasa's incredible Worldview portal. That may be the most efficient way to check.

http://tinyurl.com/jcm77qx (http://tinyurl.com/jcm77qx)

It says I registered on the forum on 29 July 2013 but posts are only archived back to June 26, 2014. That would rule out 2012? That suggests 2013 for my earliest animations. 

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F%26quot%3Bhttp%3A%2F%2Fneven1.typepad.com%2F.a%2F6a0133f03a1e37970b017d42818926970c-800wi.gif%26quot%3B+alt%3D%26quot%3BBeaufort+Gyre%26quot%3B&hash=f5232d0ff8b4efbaddacfd9d0ea1a069)

Now is some guy talking already about a third Beaufort Gyre animation back on 23 June 2010 so maybe we already have a longer term archive of the BG:

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2010/06/animation-3-beaufort-sea.html (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2010/06/animation-3-beaufort-sea.html)

And later he is still going on with that line of thought ...

Quote
Some speculate that this is a sure sign that the ice is thin and thus easier to boss around. Of course, all the cracks and polynyas are freezing over again as it's still freezing in the Beaufort Sea. This is extra ice, and the 2013 cracking event (see here*, here* and here*) taught us that though ominous-looking such cracking can actually increase volume by a fair share, and a cold start to the melting season may then be enough to spare a large part of the (multi-year) ice in this crucial zone.

* http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/03/the-cracks-of-dawn.html (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/03/the-cracks-of-dawn.html)
* http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/03/crack-is-bad-for-you-and-sea-ice.html (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/03/crack-is-bad-for-you-and-sea-ice.html)
* http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/04/on-the-move.html (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/04/on-the-move.html)

These are the magic links. It was a VERY early onset that year, like February. Chris Reynolds reviewed the whole issue of timing back to 1999:

Quote
"I've done some digging around regards this long fracture/lead in Beaufort. Nothing as big has occurred since 1999 in QuikScat or Ascat, the weather doesn't seem that abnormal, so I think it's probably mainly due to abnormally thin sea ice."
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: ktonine on April 23, 2016, 12:45:03 AM

Quote
Some speculate that this is a sure sign that the ice is thin and thus easier to boss around. Of course, all the cracks and polynyas are freezing over again as it's still freezing in the Beaufort Sea. This is extra ice, and the 2013 cracking event (see here*, here* and here*) taught us that though ominous-looking such cracking can actually increase volume by a fair share, and a cold start to the melting season may then be enough to spare a large part of the (multi-year) ice in this crucial zone.


"Ice factories" are those areas that see ice blown away from the coast so that new ice can then be made on newly opened waters. Widespread cracking events can accomplish the same function.

At this time of year, though, it is unlikely that the newly opened waters are refreezing.  Leads at higher latitudes are probably refreezing, but the area for this to occur is getting smaller everyday as insolation increases.

The dispersal of the MYI will be interesting to watch as the season progresses. If the warmest weather hotspots align with the MYI, we'll see slowdowns as the MYI doesn't melt out quickly.  OTOH, if the weather hotspots align with thinner ice we may see a final shape to the ice never seen before.  I fully expect Maslowski's prediction to be borne out this year.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: slow wing on April 23, 2016, 01:27:20 AM
huge hat tip to A-Team et al. on this site for the communication provided in graphical form - that animation of Beaufort is absolutely stunning and flawless in execution.
Hear! Hear! Terrific graphics & analysis on this site! Kudos to those responsible.

Awe-inspiring and alarming to see the Beaufort ice getting ripped up this early in the melt season. And on the other side of the Arctic, the heat already in the water north of Svalbard is gobbling up the advancing ice floes.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: werther on April 23, 2016, 08:21:46 AM
Extent numbers are plunging. Which is not surprising looking at an April analysis through NCEP/NCAR daily composites:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2F500Mb%2520Geo%2520ano%252001%2520to%252020042016%2520r%2520and%2520t_zpsjtt7cmka.jpg&hash=b338325f5f5bb8abe00038c95850a9af)

A regular ridging pattern contributes to Bering Sea ice loss at great speed. Weatern Alaska has +4-+6 dC temp anomalies at sea level.
I assume rapid extent loss could pause a bit in the coming weeks, when the Bering Sea is depleted of ice. But the ridging pattern also shows possible effects over Baffin Bay and Kara Sea.
That, combined with the preconditioning by an anomalously warm winter, is bound to keep holding our attention.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Meirion on April 23, 2016, 09:28:43 AM
Climate Reanalyser forecast to end of April now even warmer implying episodes of melting in all areas except CAA

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/#NH-SAT (http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/#NH-SAT)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Revillo on April 23, 2016, 09:44:52 AM
Here's the same spot over the beaufort for today's date, 2013-2016.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FHQtT2t9.jpg&hash=022e08ba2a020955c7c29cce25d85873)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 23, 2016, 09:57:51 AM
The 00z models are relentless.

1. The kara and the laptev have 2M temps above 0c for parts to nearly all of the next 72 hours. 

2.  Snow pack over GIS and Western Russia gets decimated. 

3.  Gis gets very early and consistent surface melt over the Southern 1/2 upwards of 2000M. 


4.  WESTERN NA/CANADA/ALASKA GETS POUNDED WHEN PERSISTENT WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW

BRINGING MAJOR SNOW,MELT ALL THE WAY TO THE SHORES OF THE ARCTIC BASIN.


5.  Winds are relentless at pushing ice away from the Alaskan coast. 

Ice formation has almost stopped and will stop the next few days.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 23, 2016, 10:00:17 AM
Here's the same spot over the beaufort for today's date, 2013-2016.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F1D1z8uF.jpg&hash=957115add6b96918b6f116e8268c0973)

Awesome but the 2013 imagine is off
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Revillo on April 23, 2016, 10:19:29 AM
Ran into a hitch because it seems the worldview photos don't export correctly for the 2013 and earlier data so I cropped it from a screen shot. And good catch - it was also one day off. I've reuploaded it.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 23, 2016, 10:37:00 AM
Looking back May 17th to May 26th 2011 had insane warmth with a massive ridge and Southerly FLOW into the Pacific side.

Amsr channel 89ghz shows the ice abruptly deteriorate from dry and solid to so wet the sensor almost thought the surface was purely water.

 Then a cool down for 2 weeks in laye May into mid June prevented a likely complete Western Cab collapse.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 23, 2016, 11:00:58 AM
It looks like this particular Aqua satellite goes back to 08 May 2012 on Nasa's incredible Worldview portal.

However N.B.

Quote
On 2013-06-06 the polar projections for some layers changed as follows:

The Arctic projection changed from Arctic Polar Stereographic (EPSG:3995, "Greenwich down") to NSIDC Polar Stereographic North (EPSG:3413, "Greenland down"). Coastlines and Graticule in the older projection can be found in the Add Layer tab by searching for "EPSG:3995".
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: wanderer on April 23, 2016, 11:04:47 AM
I bet we will see a new record. Temperatures are much higher than in 2012...
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on April 23, 2016, 12:39:01 PM
Ran into a hitch because it seems the worldview photos don't export correctly for the 2013 and earlier data so I cropped it from a screen shot. And good catch - it was also one day off. I've reuploaded it.

Is it me or does the 2013 image look to have the land outline of the same spot but the ice image that contains entry to Nares Straight and Eastern end of North West Passage?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Nick_Naylor on April 23, 2016, 01:33:28 PM
It's not you. The ice images changed on June 6 2013, so they don't line up with most of the other layers. They plan to "eventually" re-project the older images, but I'm not holding my breath. Here's the message from the WV site:

"On 2013-06-06 the polar projections for some layers changed as follows:

The Arctic projection changed from Arctic Polar Stereographic (EPSG:3995, "Greenwich down") to NSIDC Polar Stereographic North (EPSG:3413, "Greenland down"). Coastlines and Graticule in the older projection can be found in the Add Layer tab by searching for "EPSG:3995".

The Antarctic projection changed from being projected onto a sphere with radius of 6371007.181 meters to being projected onto the WGS84 ellipsoid. The projection is now the correct Antarctic Polar Stereographic (EPSG:3031). This change results in a shift of the imagery that ranges up to tens of kilometers, depending on the location.

Imagery before this transition date will eventually be reprocessed to be consistent with the imagery after it. In addition, the "Population Density" layer can no longer be displayed properly in the older projection.

Thanks for your patience as we improve and expand our imagery archive."
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Laurent on April 23, 2016, 02:02:20 PM
I did not notice that there is a strength animation in Hycom/arc, it does look even more dramatic than the thickness even thought it is already astounding.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif)
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortstrength_nowcast_anim30d.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortstrength_nowcast_anim30d.gif)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on April 23, 2016, 02:17:55 PM
I wasn't aware of the strength animation before, a good addition. Only the first frame loaded above, it won't animate. It is better just to crop off the white space and lat,lon to 700 pixels width on Hycom maps than to downsize them. The forum will display a 700x700 animation if it is below 5 MB in size.

The Beaufort Gyre movement of ice has been going on and off since late February. The ice cannot very well turn in a circle if that circle hits one of the Canadian islands; Banks Island is often limiting. On April 14th, the circle of cracking ice expanded to a crack out from the next one over, Prince Patrick. The overall motion of ice could get quite interesting over the next few days if the weather pattern persists. The animation shows developments during 16-22 April 16; the April 23rd tiles are still coming in.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: johnm33 on April 23, 2016, 03:36:24 PM
I had to check the original when I saw that extraordinary  # grid on the strength animation, but it's on there too. Any ideas as to what that's about? http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortstrength_nowcast_anim30d.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortstrength_nowcast_anim30d.gif)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Shared Humanity on April 23, 2016, 06:07:14 PM
(https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3824/9586307013_77132e9dd4_o.jpg)

This seems pretty hard to overcome to me.

The growth rates will all be lower with milder temperatures but the shape remains. Also if there was a significant ocean warming effect, wouldn't we expect to see rapid ice extent growth delayed by more than about a week that we have seen so far?

With the graph shape above, losing a week so far and maybe another week over the next decade or two, isn't going to affect the maximum ice volume much. The main part of the volume loss in past decades has been thick multi-year ice. With that gone, any more ice melted in summer tends to mainly grow back in winter.

I am absolutely in your camp.

When I first started visiting here and learning from you guys, the idea of a year round ice free Arctic Ocean was being discussed and I expressed that I could not imagine any near term future where the Arctic night and the still brutal cold (although less brutal) would not cause the Arctic to freeze over. I still feel this way and your exposition on the effects of the cold temps and ocean heat escaping to the atmosphere has me convinced. One of the current trends that supports this is the increasing spread between the annual minimum and the annual maximum, this despite the fact that warm anomalies, north of 80 degrees, have been strongest in the winter refreeze.

I wondered if tracking this spread between annual min and max might be useful and, when the tendency for this spread to increase transitioned into a shrinking spread, it would signal a tipping point.

I, half in jest, suggested that this spread measure should be called the Bifurcated Intra-Annual Chryosphere Oscillation Trend or BICOT for short. It would also be known as "Baby, it's cold out there." as research scientists huddled in their shelters, warming themselves in the long polar night.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: epiphyte on April 23, 2016, 06:30:31 PM
Looking over the past few days posts I don't have much to add to the general consensus - but I did want to mention my appreciation of the great job that you guys are all doing of illustrating ongoing events in near real-time this year. There's so much happening all at once that it had occurred to me to take some time out to make a contribution... but between this thread and the Svalbard one it's hard to find an area of visible interest that one-or other of you hasn't already got covered!
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on April 23, 2016, 06:41:48 PM
Quote
extraordinary #grid on the strength animation, but it's on there too. Any ideas as to what that's about?
Not sure what the question is here. The cross-hair grid artifacts in some frames? The long thin streamers jetting out more or less corresponding to new leads? The animation shows the Beaufort over to the Bering Straits with a few CAA islands thrown in, there may be a separate one for the whole Arctic Ocean (if not, why not?).

It makes some sense to see the lower Beaufort and Mackenzie River delta in purple and white, compressive strengths pushing zero. But why this giant expanding lobe of increasing compressive strength blowing out from Prince Patrick island out into the center?

The ice there is under compressed from the Beaufort Gyre but that is not quite the same as compressive strength. Unless by that is meant a dominating bulk property that more or less amounts to open areas (leads). Which might better fall under the term compaction (sometimes called convergence on forums).

I clipped off the scale units above - the multiplier of compression in newtons per meter is 104. Here ACNFS is explained at the link below. It seems unlike that the shift from 04.1b to 04.2 at frame 22 has any significance.

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/SIF/docs/Arctic_Cap_Nowcast_Forecast_System_Rick_Allard.pdf (http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/SIF/docs/Arctic_Cap_Nowcast_Forecast_System_Rick_Allard.pdf)

The two sets of date-like numbers step out of synch by units of 100. I have no idea what is being conveyed with this, the animation runs the standard 30 days.

Compressive strength in newtons/meter is explained well enough overall at wikipedia, that of ice at the link below (and its 145 citing articles). I don't know what data is observed that allows them to compute the compressive strength other than some black box assumptions in the model. It seems unlikely that anyone is out there measuring compressive strength of rapidly changing 2016 Arctic ice.

http://www.tms.org/pubs/journals/JOM/9902/Schulson-9902.html (http://www.tms.org/pubs/journals/JOM/9902/Schulson-9902.html)

There is some potential confusion with units of stress (pascals):

Quote
The compressive strength of ice varies from 5–25 MPa over the temperature range −10°C to −20°C. The ice compressive strength increases with decreasing temperature and increasing strain rate. Here one pascal is one newton of force applied over an area of one square meter squared which has units kilogram per meter per second squared.

Quote
so much happening all at once
Yes, it seems like non-stop action for so early in the season. Quite a few people are posting good researches. The down side to that is trying to keep up with all that output!
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 23, 2016, 09:08:33 PM

The melt season is already well underway.

Soundings indicate that 0c+ temps have breached the arctic basin.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FYJjtjrc.jpg&hash=db06b0c708677dbd83b4362358d3217e)

Pretty absurd pwats streaming into the Kara region

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FdcpOlms.jpg&hash=8a92e949a751f57b8c791c1b3fc1aaa2)

The surface temp anomalies are insane over the region with warm air advecting.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FXIK7Pbl.jpg&hash=441ac1e7e2fbea91f566f48ad9b9c635)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Buddy on April 23, 2016, 09:12:37 PM
The north/central Russian coast has been hammered with anomalous heat on and off all winter.  And for the next week gets more of it again.....not good.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: 6roucho on April 24, 2016, 05:13:06 AM
(https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3824/9586307013_77132e9dd4_o.jpg)

This seems pretty hard to overcome to me.

The growth rates will all be lower with milder temperatures but the shape remains. Also if there was a significant ocean warming effect, wouldn't we expect to see rapid ice extent growth delayed by more than about a week that we have seen so far?

With the graph shape above, losing a week so far and maybe another week over the next decade or two, isn't going to affect the maximum ice volume much. The main part of the volume loss in past decades has been thick multi-year ice. With that gone, any more ice melted in summer tends to mainly grow back in winter.

I am absolutely in your camp.

When I first started visiting here and learning from you guys, the idea of a year round ice free Arctic Ocean was being discussed and I expressed that I could not imagine any near term future where the Arctic night and the still brutal cold (although less brutal) would not cause the Arctic to freeze over. I still feel this way and your exposition on the effects of the cold temps and ocean heat escaping to the atmosphere has me convinced. One of the current trends that supports this is the increasing spread between the annual minimum and the annual maximum, this despite the fact that warm anomalies, north of 80 degrees, have been strongest in the winter refreeze.

I wondered if tracking this spread between annual min and max might be useful and, when the tendency for this spread to increase transitioned into a shrinking spread, it would signal a tipping point.

I, half in jest, suggested that this spread measure should be called the Bifurcated Intra-Annual Chryosphere Oscillation Trend or BICOT for short. It would also be known as "Baby, it's cold out there." as research scientists huddled in their shelters, warming themselves in the long polar night.

That seems obviously right. The medium- long-term future for the Arctic surely must be melting out in summer and freezing back in winter. For that not to happen would require > freezing conditions during the Arctic winter, which implies runaway global warming, and possibly a lack of any scientists left to observe it.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: DavidR on April 24, 2016, 06:13:53 AM
(https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3824/9586307013_77132e9dd4_o.jpg)

This seems pretty hard to overcome to me.

The growth rates will all be lower with milder temperatures but the shape remains. Also if there was a significant ocean warming effect, wouldn't we expect to see rapid ice extent growth delayed by more than about a week that we have seen so far?

With the graph shape above, losing a week so far and maybe another week over the next decade or two, isn't going to affect the maximum ice volume much. The main part of the volume loss in past decades has been thick multi-year ice. With that gone, any more ice melted in summer tends to mainly grow back in winter.
This growth rate is unlikely to change when the preconditions are met. What we are seeing is a rapid loss in area where the preconditions for this growth rate are met. 

Across the Arctic (67N+), this year has seen sea surface temperatures on average 2dC warmer than the previous record average, an average that has varied by only 7dC since 1948. In the high Arctic (80N+), the record has been broken by over 3dC where the previous range was only 10dC.

Only about 30% of the ice ever reaches the 2m level shown in this graph so the vast majority of the ice will be effected by these record sea temperatures and other changes consequent on the low area and extent levels.

This is not just an effect of El Nino, in 1998 SSTs did not come close to the record.  Even global  sea surface temperatures show a similar jump. After ranging from 12.8 to 13.6 since 1948 they  gave suddenly jumped to  a record 14.0.

We are truly in uncharted waters here and any  preconceptions based on previous years are suspect.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 24, 2016, 07:42:13 AM
2009,10,14,15,16.

Geezus!!

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FXI4XXRA.jpg&hash=15ac408caa5185201b8fe9f7800628f9)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 24, 2016, 08:24:51 AM
That's just epic.

If we don't see a major pattern change between say May 15th and June 15th for at least half that time we will be set up to challenge 2012.

If this pattern stays relentless into mid June. 

Wow just WOW

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FzcMYr6P.jpg&hash=1fbe45db4d5f8ff575291f28ccafdbb8)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 24, 2016, 09:52:32 AM
The Sea Ice Prediction Network is getting going earlier than usual this year:

https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2016/informal-contributions (https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2016/informal-contributions)

Quote
SIPN is accepting pre-season and informal contributions to the 2016 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO). These contributions will be in addition to the regular SIO monthly reports in June, July, and August that synthesize predictions for the September monthly average extent of Arctic sea ice.

Pre-season and informal contributions provide a way to share information on sea ice parameters or time periods not included in the regular monthly reports as well as any early field observations, such as unusual early season conditions. These contributions are valuable for understanding initial conditions as well as sea ice dynamics throughout the season.

Questions and contributions should be sent to Betsy Turner-Bogren at ARCUS (betsy@arcus.org).
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on April 24, 2016, 03:11:31 PM
When push comes to shove: the animation below for 20-23 April 16 shows the boundary between the rotating part of Beaufort Gyre and the central Arctic region to the east which is not (yet) part of the rotation and being displaced sideways (right edge of image) because the Gyre is slightly elliptical and the long axis is coming around with the clockwise rotation.

Some new cracks have appeared though the Gyre remains in its extended rotational mode (from April 14th on, delimited by Prince Patrick island rather than Banks). The area shown is north of Borden island at the outer edge of the rotation.

The overall rotation and shifting of the ice is complicated. However, for a big block that retained its corner feature from first light in 21 Feb 16 until today, a center of rotation exists over 20 days ending 23 April 16 during which the angular velocity of the big block was constant at 1.04 degrees per day at a radial distance of 349 km (from #486 animations run at 100 frames/sec).

If you watch other blocks 'ahead' of big block, they can be seen to be ejected from the top of the Gyre (bottom animation) in the direction of the Chukchi Sea / Wrangell Island where they are destined to melt out later in the season. If this keeps up, it will take out quite a bit of the thickest and oldest ice of the CAA. There is some independent fracturing along the Alaskan coast in the vicinity of Barrow. The big block's blue tip appears in the last frame.

This is a colossal amount of kinetic energy considering the mass of all this ice -- and this despite 'slipping the clutch' losses on the CAA block to the east. The Gyre may have reached its terminal configuration and velocity, in the sense that resistive forces grow so fast beyond this speed that even the ominous forecast (thx to friv above) won't have much overt effect other than to sustain.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: oren on April 24, 2016, 04:01:43 PM
When push comes to shove: the animation below for 20-23 April 16 shows the boundary between the rotating part of Beaufort Gyre and the central Arctic region to the east which is not (yet) part of the rotation and being displaced sideways (right edge of image) because the Gyre is slightly elliptical and the long axis is coming around with the clockwise rotation.

Some new cracks have appeared though the Gyre remains in its extended rotational mode (as of April 14th, delimited by Prince Patrick island rather than Banks). The area shown is north of Borden island at the outer edge of the rotation.
Beautiful and instructive. The power of this.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on April 24, 2016, 06:58:14 PM
looking around for data on radiation balance I have found this:
https://ceres-tool.larc.nasa.gov/ord-tool/jsp/EBAFSFCSelection.jsp (https://ceres-tool.larc.nasa.gov/ord-tool/jsp/EBAFSFCSelection.jsp)
CERES surface radiation values calculated to match TOA observations (if I understand correctly)
2015 seem to be the most recent available. Shown are monthly all sky averages. I hope you can recognize the north coast of Alaska and Beaufort sea

If any one has better information please let us know

What I think this shows is the role open water plays. just have a look at those net values where there was open water in June. The water absorbs SW like snowfree land does but emits less LW than land which has higher temperatures!
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on April 24, 2016, 07:22:18 PM
T
Quote
his shows is the role open water plays. just have a look at those net values where there was open water in June. The water absorbs SW like snowfree land does but emits less LW than land which has higher temperatures!

you can recognize the north coast of Alaska and Beaufort sea
Very interesting. We have not done nearly enough with the observational side of radiation balance. I wonder why the lag time is so long with Ceres ... why not provide a rolling average out to the current date?

Hycom has all sorts of new products for the north coast of Alaska and Beaufort sea area. I trimmed down their open lead forecast to show their predictions out to 29 Apr 16 -- some interesting things coming around Prince Patrick and offshore if this is at all accurate.

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/ (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 24, 2016, 08:11:32 PM
GFS 12Z run is out. And the pic is clear: continued heat pressure at the Pacific side. The coldest air will be situated at Taimyr Peninsula. Main question is whether the ice in Kara Sea will benefit from the cold weather?

I'm sure Friv would say:this is epic and brutal! Relentless hammering of the sea ice! Just WOW :)

//LMV
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on April 24, 2016, 11:18:08 PM
Quote
i'm sure Friv would say:this is epic and brutal!
Did you try a text search for 'blowtorch' on the forums?

I looked to see if free high resolution imagery was available this far north. It is, Sentinel 2A 10 m color. That means the tiniest little patch, like the one shown below for an area off Prince Patrick, is already 10890 pixels on a side (118 MB). This is shown below at six levels of magnification, from 1/16th to 2x, as indicated by the nested boxes. These range from 5 m resolution to 160 m pixels (the worse resolution slightly better than WorldView Aqua 250 m).

These were processed as 8-bit rather than 16. Wipneus has a pipeline for color processing at 16 bit which would give better results. There might be some interest in this type of imagery for distinguishing ice from refrozen lead water from sea water from Mackenzie River fresh water (which is leaching out from under its ice already according to Hycom SSS (salinity).

I don't believe anyone uses this resolution imagery in figuring sea ice area or extent, first and foremost because coverage doesn't extend over the whole Arctic Ocean and if it did, wouldn't be cloud-free. However a tile like this could be used to spot-check some of the >15% stories.

http://sentinel-s2-l1c.s3-website.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/#tiles/9/X/WG/2016/4/19/0/ (http://sentinel-s2-l1c.s3-website.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/#tiles/9/X/WG/2016/4/19/0/)

http://sentinel-pds.s3-website.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/ (http://sentinel-pds.s3-website.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 24, 2016, 11:34:03 PM
New ASIB blog post: CryoSat-2 confirms: sea ice volume is low (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/04/cryosat-2-confirms-sea-ice-volume-is-low.html)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: oren on April 24, 2016, 11:49:58 PM
Quote
i'm sure Friv would say:this is epic and brutal!
Did you try a text search for 'blowtorch' on the forums?

I looked to see if free high resolution imagery was available this far north. It is, Sentinel 2A 10 m color. That means the tiniest little patch, like the one shown below for an area off Prince Patrick, is already 10890 pixels on a side (118 MB). This is shown below at six levels of magnification, from 1/16th to 2x, as indicated by the nested boxes. This ranges from 5 m resolution to 160 m pixels (similar to WorldView Aqua 250 m).

These were processed as 8-bit rather than 16. Wipneus has a pipeline for color processing at 16 bit which would give better results. There might be some interest in this type of imagery for distinguishing ice from refrozen lead water from sea water from Mackenzie River fresh water (which is leaching out from under its ice already according to Hycom SSS (salinity).

I don't believe anyone uses this resolution imagery in figuring sea ice area or extent, first and foremost because coverage doesn't extend over the whole Arctic Ocean and if it did, wouldn't be cloud-free. However a tile like this could be used to spot-check some of the >15% stories.

http://sentinel-s2-l1c.s3-website.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/#tiles/9/X/WG/2016/4/19/0/ (http://sentinel-s2-l1c.s3-website.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/#tiles/9/X/WG/2016/4/19/0/)

http://sentinel-pds.s3-website.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/ (http://sentinel-pds.s3-website.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/)

The resolution is astounding. Definitely a good tool to do localized reality checks on the overall stats.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 25, 2016, 01:32:14 AM
GFS 12Z run is out. And the pic is clear: continued heat pressure at the Pacific side. The coldest air will be situated at Taimyr Peninsula. Main question is whether the ice in Kara Sea will benefit from the cold weather?

I'm sure Friv would say:this is epic and brutal! Relentless hammering of the sea ice! Just WOW :)

//LMV

The 18z is even more epic.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Juan C. García on April 25, 2016, 02:48:57 AM
We are starting to have above 0º C temperatures at Kara Sea.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on April 25, 2016, 04:37:54 AM
Quote
New ASIB blog post: CryoSat-2 confirms: sea ice volume is low.
I believe it. The animation allows some comparison of the six years. However the image I had to work with from ASIB was fairly low in resolution so it would not work to form yearly difference images. The second image uses full resolution images from http://www.meereisportal.de/en/ (http://www.meereisportal.de/en/)  with the third frame showing the change between Jan and Feb 2016 sea ice thickness.

From the ASIB:

Quote
This sea ice portal (http://www.meereisportal.de/en.html (http://www.meereisportal.de/en.html)) is quite well done and very effective at serving Cryosat-2 data either as graphic or as underlying data. The netCDF format can be opened in with free Panoply with no need for matlab or command line.

The originals for these graphics are quite generous, 3747 3747 pixel pngs. They crop quite nicely to a more manageable 1400x1400 for the Arctic Ocean. It is easy to make a black landmask by subtracting two images.

I would suggest to them an opt-out for the lat,lon graticule overlay. These are few people who do not already have access to a globe. Better to provide mouse-over lat,lon as done on so many other sites.

Erstaunlicherweise ist die Palette ganz falsch für wissenschaftliche Zwecke: the bins do not correspond to metric divisions and it does not drop to a linear grayscale. This is only 6-bit data (64 bins) after all.

It is far better to be able to explore time series data intuitively as graphics. Later you can go back and repeat the useful manipulations in netCDF numeric arrays.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 25, 2016, 05:24:39 AM

Crosphere surface melt has started to spread much more quickly than in 2015. 

And the weather will continue to be incredibly anonymously warm. 


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FBBjhsrr.jpg&hash=be420640c0d02c45d095932f9ff63340)

FREAKING EPIC. 


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FCezeEY0.jpg&hash=4dcc361bd3b3640f777dfcc4da835f99)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 25, 2016, 05:58:19 AM


Damn, thickness outside the inner inner core is total shyt.

Its straight awful in the Chuchki and Beaufort.

Seriously, 1-1.5M?   No wonder it's being chopped up so easily.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FykskPpI.jpg&hash=d741b145a4c6f2a276cc65b4c6a2f0b0)


So far everything is pointing towards a big chance for historic melt this summer.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 25, 2016, 08:12:35 AM
I believe it. The animation allows some comparison of the six years. However the image I had to work with from ASIB was fairly low in resolution so it would not work to form yearly difference images

Yes, I often make images smaller so that they load faster. You can get 800x800 PNGs at seaiceportal.de (http://www.seaiceportal.de). And the purple ones at the top of the ASIB post are 3600x3600, downloadable at the AWI press release (http://www.awi.de/nc/en/about-us/service/press/press-release/der-arktis-droht-ein-meereisverlust-wie-im-negativrekordjahr-2012.html).

That gift of extreme SLP and SAT just keeps on giving, doesn't it? The Chukchi and Bering are next in line, it seems.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Wipneus on April 25, 2016, 08:34:21 AM

These were processed as 8-bit rather than 16. Wipneus has a pipeline for color processing at 16 bit which would give better results.

Not too difficult. Here is the same animation in RGB, just using Imagemagick commands.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on April 25, 2016, 01:23:26 PM
Per graph Feb 2013 has less ice per cryosat with Feb 2012 second lowest and 2016 third lowest. (Piomas thinks 2011 lowest then 2016 then 2014. Should we prefer Cryosat data to a PIOMAS model? Maybe a combination and 2016 is the only year in lowest 3 of both? )

Anyway back to more volume than 2013 per Cryosat:

But look at the snow cover on land differences:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fclimate.rutgers.edu%2Fsnowcover%2Fpng%2Fdaily_dn%2F2013115.png&hash=bbef95a73ec2bf72430953afc6da694d)
2013

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fclimate.rutgers.edu%2Fsnowcover%2Fpng%2Fdaily_dn%2F2016115.png&hash=c5ad910a52ea333c382e7e0a9880ce9e)
2016

With above snow difference,
Warm water,
Beaufort cracking in April vs Feb,
Low extent & area to provide low albedo to help a rapid start to melt
... (got more factors to add, please do make suggestions)

it seems hard to imagine the weather could be so extremely good for retaining sea ice that we could have a 2013 sort of year.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 25, 2016, 02:04:02 PM
Yes.
This year with all that, it is difficult not to believe Beaufort and Chukchi will be obliterated really early, MYI included (just see what is still to come during this week for more preconditioning!).

However ESS is much stronger than last year.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: DoomInTheUK on April 25, 2016, 02:58:52 PM
For the last couple of years we appear to have dodged a bullet, but it seems that every year there are ever more bullets to dodge.
One year our luck will run out we'll get that 'poof' moment. This year may or may not be the one, but it's certainly doing more harm than good to the ice.

I'm wondering if we'll ever see the pack be detached from all the coastlines at once so that we have a skull-cap of ice. Probably not, but I keep hoping.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on April 25, 2016, 03:14:36 PM
Quote
Not too difficult. Here is the same animation in RGB, just using Imagemagick commands.
It looks like the S2A sensors are not compensated correctly at the swath edges, it is not too hard to see the artifactual green striping. That fellow from NASA helping us last summer said to correct red and blue for more/less atmospheric scattering for ice and water scenes, so that should maybe be added to the canned Imagemagick commands (if that is allowed).

I am not seeing any persuasive shades of blue that would distinguish the different states of ice, melt, and water that we are after. Maybe wayne or someone living way up north can lay out some really large brightly colored tarps so we can see what it takes to get them color corrected with bands 234?

The final image shows Worldview Aqua 250m for three consecutive days, on the northern edge of the Beaufort Gyre. The blue band (day 22) is narrower than the green (day 23) or red (day 24) in the large lead, indicating that the lead is widening faster on the latter two days.

Quote
seems that every year there are ever more bullets to dodge. One year our luck will run out we'll get that 'poof' moment... wondering if we'll ever see the pack be detached from all the coastlines

That is the way I see it too, playing with a very dangerous slot machine. One day it will stop with the 3 lemons showing: high pressure anomaly, heat anomaly, cyclone anomaly at just the wrong times in the same summer season following a preconditioning. If each were independently probablility 1/2, that is an expectancy of (1/2)3 or 8 years (for illustrative purposes only, no idea what the odds are, other than they appear to get worse with each passing emission year).

We've seen the ice pulled away from the entire CAA coastline, not that uncommon with an active Gyre. There is no question though that the off-center geometry of the bounding lands and north pole are very influential in constraining ice motion. For example, CAA ice can ground in the extensive shoals north of Greenland in the Kaffekluben area, a barrier to exiting the Fram Strait.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 25, 2016, 04:46:14 PM
Per graph Feb 2013 has less ice per cryosat with Feb 2012 second lowest and 2016 third lowest. (Piomas thinks 2011 lowest then 2016 then 2014. Should we prefer Cryosat data to a PIOMAS model? Maybe a combination and 2016 is the only year in lowest 3 of both? )

Anyway back to more volume than 2013 per Cryosat:

But look at the snow cover on land differences:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fclimate.rutgers.edu%2Fsnowcover%2Fpng%2Fdaily_dn%2F2013115.png&hash=bbef95a73ec2bf72430953afc6da694d)
2013

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fclimate.rutgers.edu%2Fsnowcover%2Fpng%2Fdaily_dn%2F2016115.png&hash=c5ad910a52ea333c382e7e0a9880ce9e)
2016

With above snow difference,
Warm water,
Beaufort cracking in April vs Feb,
Low extent & area to provide low albedo to help a rapid start to melt
... (got more factors to add, please do make suggestions)

it seems hard to imagine the weather could be so extremely good for retaining sea ice that we could have a 2013 sort of year.

Almost no chance of that.

2013 was the second best year weather wise for ice retention since 1996.

In about one week snow cover next to the MacKenzie will almost. all be gone.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 25, 2016, 04:49:51 PM
Quote
2013 was the second best year weather wise for ice retention since 1996.

I still wonder if that was some kind of reaction to 2012, but if so, don't have a clue as to how that works mechanically. Maybe it was just a fluke.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: DoomInTheUK on April 25, 2016, 05:18:13 PM
I imagine 2013 was a reaction to 2012. The balancing act that is the heat flow into and out of the Arctic will have times of imbalance and rebalance. 2013/14/15 may have swung the balance too far and now we start to get the backlash.

Regression to the mean is rarely a smooth path, especially in such a chaotic system as a full year in the Arctic. The problem we currently face is that the system is trying to rebalance but the fundamentals are changing too fast.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: cesium62 on April 25, 2016, 07:04:35 PM
Quote
2013 was the second best year weather wise for ice retention since 1996.

I still wonder if that was some kind of reaction to 2012, but if so, don't have a clue as to how that works mechanically. Maybe it was just a fluke.

Looking at the graph of September min extents, 2013 looks like just a normal relatively slightly cold year.  A bit colder (relatively) than 2009, about the same as 2006.  Nowhere near as cold as 1996.  2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2012 were all warmer than trend.  2009, 2013, 2014 were a little bit colder than trend. 

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 25, 2016, 07:14:01 PM
I imagine 2013 was a reaction to 2012. The balancing act that is the heat flow into and out of the Arctic will have times of imbalance and rebalance. 2013/14/15 may have swung the balance too far and now we start to get the backlash.

Regression to the mean is rarely a smooth path, especially in such a chaotic system as a full year in the Arctic. The problem we currently face is that the system is trying to rebalance but the fundamentals are changing too fast.
It may be that as the system becomes more energetic, it also becomes more volatile - with greater variation year over year. 

If this year follows 2012's trajectory, we'll be flirting with an "Ice free" state.  Next year, we could bounce back to 2007/2011/2015.  We may have several decades like that; one year satisfying our "Ice free" criteria, followed by a 2007, or somewhere in between.

Eventually, the 2007/2011/2015's become so infrequent that they are the black swan event, rather than the other way around.

Then we will start watching the winter refreeze instead, hoping for the greatest possible increases in volume and area, and watching them slowly diminish to very little or nothing, except perhaps  along the Siberian coast and the CAA.

How very depressing.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: wili on April 25, 2016, 07:30:17 PM
"If this year follows 2012's trajectory..."

I would be interested in hearing your and others' opinions as to whether this melt season may be even faster and more thorough than 2012's trajectory.

Surely the ice is even weaker, thinner, etc.

We had a very warm winter up there, and we are likely heading into the first or second warmest years globally on record.

Last I checked, snow cover levels are very low in many places, another factor that correlates with low end-of-melt-season sea ice extent numbers, iirc.

Mostly, people talk about 2012 rate of ice melt as if it is some ultimate limit. Is that a well founded assumption, or just our own version of reticence??
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 25, 2016, 07:59:52 PM

Looking at the graph of September min extents, 2013 looks like just a normal relatively slightly cold year.  A bit colder (relatively) than 2009, about the same as 2006.  Nowhere near as cold as 1996.  2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2012 were all warmer than trend.  2009, 2013, 2014 were a little bit colder than trend.

2013 wasn't just about being slightly colder than the trend. It was also a very cloudy year because of persistent cyclones (check the defunct SLP Patterns (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/slp-patterns) page on ASIG). This combination allowed it to rebound as much as it did.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 25, 2016, 08:16:57 PM
Quote
2013 was the second best year weather wise for ice retention since 1996.

I still wonder if that was some kind of reaction to 2012, but if so, don't have a clue as to how that works mechanically. Maybe it was just a fluke.

Looking at the graph of September min extents, 2013 looks like just a normal relatively slightly cold year.  A bit colder (relatively) than 2009, about the same as 2006.  Nowhere near as cold as 1996.  2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2012 were all warmer than trend.  2009, 2013, 2014 were a little bit colder than trend.

That's because the ice was already decimated.

The snow/ice albedo effect was severely weakened
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 25, 2016, 09:20:19 PM
"If this year follows 2012's trajectory..."

I would be interested in hearing your and others' opinions as to whether this melt season may be even faster and more thorough than 2012's trajectory.

Surely the ice is even weaker, thinner, etc.

We had a very warm winter up there, and we are likely heading into the first or second warmest years globally on record.

Last I checked, snow cover levels are very low in many places, another factor that correlates with low end-of-melt-season sea ice extent numbers, iirc.

Mostly, people talk about 2012 rate of ice melt as if it is some ultimate limit. Is that a well founded assumption, or just our own version of reticence??
As I refer to it in my comment, 2012 is just one example of how a melt season can go, not a limit or a metric.  I'm just using one example for which we have direct observational experience; it has happened, so it could happen again. 

It is wholly possible that there could be greater melt than 2012.  In fact I think there is good probability for that happening this year. 
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: werther on April 25, 2016, 09:22:09 PM
The situation now is about in line with my expectations. Given the right combination of events, a crash in ice extent/volume is possible any year since ’10.

I remain with my point of view December ’14: a ’17 black swan-event putting extent < 1 Mkm2 initiating a bifurcation in the state of the Arctic Ocean, a series of ‘on/off’ summers, a first < 1Mkm3 volume year around ’23 and a 10 year decline into a perennial ice-free Arctic Ocean. And mind, some FYI will form even then in Hudson Bay, Foxe Basin, the CAA and other sheltered nooks.

ECS, rather sad, seems to be at the high end of what’s modelled. Some important carbon sinks are losing their once-reliable capacity. OHC continues to strengthen, in spite of the strong El Nino-event that is now fading.

I still think there’s reason to expect ’17 for larger odds in favour of this initiating black swan-event. The low ice formation during last winter was in my opinion dominated by atmospheric effects. The trend however in this low winter ice regrowth is influenced mostly by OHC creeping in. Both processes will precondition the ice pack volume this summer much like the ’10 and ’11 example.

But I don’t expect a combination of woeful events will be strong enough in ’16 already to “do the job”.

Nothing in weather/climate works by now as it did just a couple of years ago. That’s why I think whatever weather will be predominant, summer ’16 will bring back volume near the low ’12 level combined with even worse physical conditions. Next winter will set the hazards. Will the Arctic experience a strong La Nina atmospheric set-up or will neutral/slightly positive ONI-circumstances prevail?

Anyway, positive PDO conditions will remain, so there’s a big chance atmospheric winter-warming will continue.
After that, during ’17, odds for a combination of high-impact melt events will be very high.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on April 25, 2016, 10:38:02 PM
Strong correlation of melt out years to exceptionally dry (non cloudy, snowy) spring times as evidenced by the Pacific North American Index.  Currently the ensemble mean shows a positive through the first week of May. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna_index_mrf.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna_index_mrf.shtml)

as you can see, from the monthly average graphic below, the years with a strong positive in spring (2007, 2012) had exceptional melt and those that had strong negatives in spring (2013,2014) have record low melts.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fprecip%2FCWlink%2Fpna%2Fpna.timeseries.gif&hash=0110e80e7ddc570063527e18dc535167)

The PNA index is a measure of the relative high/low pressure density zones near the Aleutian Islands and the Bearing Straight.  A strong negative over an extended period of time, caused by an atmospheric blocking mechanism forces mid-latitude moisture into the arctic cell, creating clouds and precipitation in the spring months.

High cloudiness, lower temperatures and precipitation in the spring months suppresses melt pond formation and is the primary indicator of later season ice melt extents.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 25, 2016, 11:46:14 PM
Above freezing temps forecast for Beaufort:  :-X
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Greenbelt on April 26, 2016, 12:19:00 AM
Those predicted above-freezing temps in the Beaufort would get close to http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy14/camera (http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy14/camera) if they verify.

I know May melt ponds are associated with low September minima, but April melt ponds?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 26, 2016, 12:31:53 AM
Above freezing temps forecast for Beaufort:  :-X

I noticed that and the further drift, as well as the cold air displaced to ESS/Laptev including storms weather. Will be extremely interesting May start
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 26, 2016, 12:45:42 AM
I know May melt ponds are associated with low September minima, but April melt ponds?

Even worse!
Very early Spring in almost everywhere of the NH in the warmest year on record, maybe the Arctic Ocean is headed to be no exception.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: OldLeatherneck on April 26, 2016, 02:10:58 AM
"If this year follows 2012's trajectory..."

I would be interested in hearing your and others' opinions as to whether this melt season may be even faster and more thorough than 2012's trajectory.

Surely the ice is even weaker, thinner, etc.

We had a very warm winter up there, and we are likely heading into the first or second warmest years globally on record.

Last I checked, snow cover levels are very low in many places, another factor that correlates with low end-of-melt-season sea ice extent numbers, iirc.

Mostly, people talk about 2012 rate of ice melt as if it is some ultimate limit. Is that a well founded assumption, or just our own version of reticence??
As I refer to it in my comment, 2012 is just one example of how a melt season can go, not a limit or a metric.  I'm just using one example for which we have direct observational experience; it has happened, so it could happen again. 

It is wholly possible that there could be greater melt than 2012.  In fact I think there is good probability for that happening this year.

I'll respond to both Wili's and JD's comments (highlighted above) regarding using the losses of 2012 as a "Gold Standard" that seldom, if ever, would be matched or exceeded.  My rebuttal to that way of thinking is to remind everyone that the earth's climate is NOT currently in a state of equilibrium.  When recent statistics and deviations from the norm are used, it implies that the occurrence of any given event had a likelihood of happening within a given time frame. Typically, 2 Standard Deviations (2 STDs) from  the norm are considered within the realm of normal random occurrences, 3 STDs are considered rare.  Unfortunately, this assumes some semblence of normalcy in the major variables which can result in being either positive or negative feedbacks.

Among some most prominent variables, that are no longer in equilibrium, that can have an impact on Arctic  ice loss are GHG levels (elevated),SSTs (elevated globally and more so in the Arctic), Surface Temperatures (record high globally and well above normal in the Arctic), NH snow cover very low and that pesky Jet Stream that hasn't learned how to respond to Arctic  Amplification.

Given that situation, there is  nothing to prevent any given year not to have ice losses greater than 2012.

Well, that last statement is not entirely true.  Some year, in the not too distant future,there will not be enough ice in the Arctic, as measured by any metric, to permit losses greater thatn those that occurred in 2012.

Sadly, that may well occur in my lifetime.....and I'm fast approaching my 70th birthday!!
 
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: DavidR on April 26, 2016, 05:06:10 AM
I know May melt ponds are associated with low September minima, but April melt ponds?

Even worse!
Very early Spring in almost everywhere of the NH in the warmest year on record, maybe the Arctic Ocean is headed to be no exception.
From Jan - Mar, Arctic sea temperatures have averaged more than 1 std deviation warmer than  the previous record, based on the NOAA data covering the last 68 years. The Arctic is already  a long  way into  uncharted waters as far as water temperature is concerned.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Mike Fliss on April 26, 2016, 06:59:48 AM
Yo Friv, As always, epic forecast or as you'd say:

"...so much heat it could cause global warmin' (it's getting' hot)
and you know I keep the room for something foreign
so when you hear shots just know it's not a warnin'"

Kind regards, Kelly Price
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 26, 2016, 08:10:07 AM
The 00z gfs is incredible. 

Almost through the entire run a Southerly flow hammers the Baugh BeAufort.

And its already in epic form.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FOKJ5OLJ.jpg&hash=08392c8a0034f3305316ab32d4405128)

All that Gray ice in the above image is razor thin.  These flows will be exposed so early in May with potential warming waters.

The gfs shows most of the snow in the BeAufort and Chuchki being severely melted by May 2bd.

That's wild. 

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FNRCNcOz.jpg&hash=ad7fb25f9a64d594ab7238e1f512e2fc)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 26, 2016, 08:45:36 AM
The 00z gfs is incredible. 

Almost through the entire run a Southerly flow hammers the Baugh BeAufort.

And its already in epic form.

All that Gray ice in the above image is razor thin.  These flows will be exposed so early in May with potential warming waters.

The gfs shows most of the snow in the BeAufort and Chuchki being severely melted by May 2bd.

That's wild. 


It does look pretty dire - the snow melt in particular, both in N. America and western Asia and Russia.  That will translate into a sharp pulse of much warmer melt water getting injected into deltas all across the basin weeks to months earlier than it would arrive otherwise.  There are a lot of cascading events taking place, a lot earlier than they should be.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 26, 2016, 09:36:25 AM
The 00z gfs is incredible. 

Almost through the entire run a Southerly flow hammers the Baugh BeAufort.

And its already in epic form.

All that Gray ice in the above image is razor thin.  These flows will be exposed so early in May with potential warming waters.

The gfs shows most of the snow in the BeAufort and Chuchki being severely melted by May 2bd.

That's wild. 


It does look pretty dire - the snow melt in particular, both in N. America and western Asia and Russia.  That will translate into a sharp pulse of much warmer melt water getting injected into deltas all across the basin weeks to months earlier than it would arrive otherwise.  There are a lot of cascading events taking place, a lot earlier than they should be.

Positive feedbacks.

The most important piece is the May sun.

If we add just one extra week is legit ice melt in May it will have major consequences.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: wili on April 26, 2016, 12:19:41 PM
Thanks, jd and OLn.

That's pretty much what I was thinking.

I find this kind of attitude in the context of other climate and weather related events--that the most extreme event/storm, usually the most extreme local or regional event/storm--sets the limit for any expected storms in the future.

In a stable climate, that would be a relatively safe thing to do. But the bell curve of extreme events is shifting and widening to include extremes beyond anything we have seen (and possibly beyond what many can imaging) as we go forward into the horrific world we have created for ourselves and our progeny.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 26, 2016, 12:38:22 PM
This is perhaps superflous given the clarity of the skies over the Beaufort Sea throughout April, but here's my latest passive microwave animation:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/beaufort-sea-ice-graphs/ (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/beaufort-sea-ice-graphs/)

http://youtu.be/H0SiuA7SWlY (http://youtu.be/H0SiuA7SWlY)

and here's the effect of the sustained high pressure on Beaufort Sea ice area:

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Nick_Naylor on April 26, 2016, 01:04:01 PM
. . .  the bell curve of extreme events is shifting and widening to include extremes beyond anything we have seen . . .

Very true. When we look at any event in terms of how many standard deviations from the mean it represents, it's always a little tongue in cheek. We're comparing current events to a static random distribution that is out of date - and was never static in the first place. That's why we can see 100 year storms every year or two, and frequently exceed 2 or 3 sd's.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Carex on April 26, 2016, 02:31:17 PM
OldLeatherneck: "Among some most prominent variables, that are no longer in equilibrium, that can have an impact on Arctic  ice loss are GHG levels (elevated),SSTs (elevated globally and more so in the Arctic), Surface Temperatures (record high globally and well above normal in the Arctic), NH snow cover very low and that pesky Jet Stream that hasn't learned how to respond to Arctic  Amplification."

What worries me is that these levels are elevated, continue to elevate, and are elevating at an increasing rate.  And, have the GHG levels reached that point that natural (or secondary anthropogenic) GHG sources are becoming available at levels that can maintain or increase the GHG levels even if primary anthropogenic sources are curbed or eliminated. 

Lakes Baikal and Winnipeg are beginning to break up and there are open stretches on the Irtysh and Nelson Rivers.  The warm water cometh.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 26, 2016, 02:57:31 PM
Oh, my.  Arctic anomaly today: +4.17°C.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on April 26, 2016, 02:57:40 PM
Quote
open stretches on the Irtysh and Nelson Rivers.  The warm water cometh.
Here is an update on the Beaufort Gyre, observed 24-25 Apr and Navy Hycom predicted out to 02 May 16. tl;dr: the Gyre continues its gyrations. The influx of warm fresh water from the Mackenzie River is always a highlight of the Beaufort spring; no surface signs of land melt as yet. This year we will have it in high resolution color on Sentinel 2A.

There is a trick to chopping one of these animations down from 30 days down to just the predictive tail because the 'combine' feature in a gif requires differencing from earlier frames: open in gimp, use the 'new from visible' command to capture the days wanted, then delete everything else, then crop, retaining dates if possible an rescale to 700 pixel forum width. http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/ (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 26, 2016, 04:06:06 PM
i predict that that last image (prediction) will show to be quite "off", too many peripherals that are quite warm already and predicted to remain that way, show no loss at all, just shifting current ice around. let's see :-)  ;)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: meddoc on April 26, 2016, 04:14:37 PM
What worries me is that these levels are elevated, continue to elevate, and are elevating at an increasing rate.  And, have the GHG levels reached that point that natural (or secondary anthropogenic) GHG sources are becoming available at levels that can maintain or increase the GHG levels even if primary anthropogenic sources are curbed or eliminated. 

Lakes Baikal and Winnipeg are beginning to break up and there are open stretches on the Irtysh and Nelson Rivers.  The warm water cometh.


Adding more & more GHGs to an already unprecedented level, last seen 10s of millions of years before present is obviously kicking in other feedbacks- big time.

Besides albedo & latent heat loss; rivers are of huge impact, too. Not often talked about and seem to be delivering hammerous, puls- like blows to the Ice.
As May is coming, we shall see it, again.

My estimate- at best: slightly above 2 M km2 by end of September.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 26, 2016, 04:23:08 PM
fully agree, in some very warm and windy spots the ice is lingering for days in bad state now and i predict that it will be gone overnight within short time now. if that happens we shall be around 2M indeed, in extremis could be below that even while that's a a daring forecast though  8)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: 6roucho on April 26, 2016, 04:26:52 PM
. . .  the bell curve of extreme events is shifting and widening to include extremes beyond anything we have seen . . .

Very true. When we look at any event in terms of how many standard deviations from the mean it represents, it's always a little tongue in cheek. We're comparing current events to a static random distribution that is out of date - and was never static in the first place. That's why we can see 100 year storms every year or two, and frequently exceed 2 or 3 sd's.
Regression to a moving mean - not straightforward in a complexly self-referential system like the Arctic melting season.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on April 26, 2016, 04:35:01 PM
Ice features are quite persistent in the Beaufort Gyre area, making it possible to determine the mean velocity between any pair of days and changes in velocity (acceleration) between any two pairs for the last couple of months. However the ice leads can open and close, absorbing or exaggerating position shifts of ice floes, so ice blocks do not quite move uniformly.

As shown below, floes in the region near 'big block' slowed down slightly (about 5%) between 23-24 and 24-25 Apr 2016. However the overall displacement in this region will approach 600 km for the month.

There is a not-completely-tight teleconnection between the Beaufort Gyre movements, compression and eastward movement of the main block of older CAA ice, the Transarctic Drift current, and export of ice out the Fram Strait. Velocity changes measured in the Gyre should have a muted and perhaps delayed correlation with those in the Fram which are also easily monitored out of WorldView (despite more April clouds).

Export out the Fram spares the Arctic sun/air/water a large amount of melt thermodynamics on thicker older ice as the melt requirements are off-loaded to the vast heat reservoirs of the North Atlantic. The impact there is mainly a buoyant layer of freshwater melt.

The Fram Strait animations are 'sideways' from WorldView presentation. Svalbard can be seen in the upper left corner, the flow goes along the east coast of Greenland with melt-out nearly complete about half way down.  The last five days of that fascinating area are shown in the 4th animation.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 26, 2016, 07:17:23 PM
Quote
open stretches on the Irtysh and Nelson Rivers.  The warm water cometh.
Here is an update on the Beaufort Gyre, observed 24-25 Apr and Navy Hycom predicted out to 02 May 16. tl;dr: the Gyre continues its gyrations. The influx of warm fresh water from the Mackenzie River is always a highlight of the Beaufort spring; no surface signs of land melt as yet. This year we will have it in high resolution color on Sentinel 2A.

There is a trick to chopping one of these animations down from 30 days down to just the predictive tail because the 'combine' feature in a gif requires differencing from earlier frames: open in gimp, use the 'new from visible' command to capture the days wanted, then delete everything else, then crop, retaining dates if possible an rescale to 700 pixel forum width.

Amazing images and predictions.

There is still some benefit for the huge blue band of MYI that has been stretched and displaced from Beaufort toward ESS. The amazing prediction of drift shows it will be now pushed Northwards away from coast. This will help protect this ice for longer time during the melting season.

Last year, the more abundant Beaufort MYI seemed it might survive, but a couple of weak cold cyclones caused the ice to drift toward the coast in June. That was not good.

Gets more and more interesting.

Somehow related, a lot of ice has been and is being compressed at ESS and CAB, due to the Feb - April drift (see how ice decelerates at that area, sometimes abruptly, while the streamlines remain parallel in most of the drift maps, especially in February and early April). The ice must be very much ridged up. 2015F bouy data show a steady ice growth too. Also, theoretically, this strong Gyre should cause retaining of cold fresh water in the center of the Gyre (Beaufort side of CAB?), while permitting upwelling of saltier water at coasts ... precisely now that they are opening up, with warm days coming and sun pretty high.

Altogether, a lot of resistance in CAB particularly toward ESS, where models estimate thicker ice and snow depth over ice and adjacent lands. But, really fast melting might happen at Beaufort and Chukchi coasts. Kara and Laptev as usual, gone.

i predict that that last image (prediction) will show to be quite "off", too many peripherals that are quite warm already and predicted to remain that way, show no loss at all, just shifting current ice around. let's see :-)  ;)

It will take a "little" longer I think ; - )
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 26, 2016, 07:26:21 PM
It will take a "little" longer I think ; - )

ok, game on  8)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 26, 2016, 07:56:41 PM
The polynya north of Prince Patrick Island seems to have refrozen almost completely. The question is how thin it will be when the temps are going above 0 there? As there is no snow on this ice it might grow quite fast. However, this area should more or less be bathing in sunlight now 24/7.

This year is surely very interesting with temperatures above the normal i the Arctic. However, our memory is not very long! Back in 2015 we had even bigger temperature anomalies at this time at year. While this year haven't seen any temps below normal in the high Arctic, 2015 only had 2 short occurrences with temperatures below normal. But the beginning of May was very cold and saved us last year from an even worse melting season.

Finally, I notice that according to DMI, the sea ice volume is now more or less "on pair" with 2012... I hereby claim the official start for volume melting season 2016!!
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: bbr2314 on April 26, 2016, 09:03:29 PM
First splotches of blue showing up by end of DMI's forecast range, along the AK coast. With the Bering Strait already near melting-out, the Pacific melt front will soon stretch all the way from the CAA to Rangel Island.

The significance of this is enormous; in a normal year in the 20th century the Pacific barely got to the Strait, if at all, and the melt front was confined to the immediate coast (if that) and the tiny border in the vicinity of the Strait.

With so much more heat to transfer in general this is not that surprising, but I think it may result in a non-linear response to where we are possibly ice-free this yr. If models are correct, the Rangel-CAA front would be open in 10-14 days or so, and with bulk being pushed towards Fram on the other side....

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Focean.dmi.dk%2Fanim%2Fplots%2Fsst.arc.121.png&hash=153dd6b02f2f6051281048ba841a5c16)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 26, 2016, 09:17:51 PM
12z ECMWF run is brutal!! 1040 hPa high pressure by the end of next week!!
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 26, 2016, 09:24:55 PM
First splotches of blue showing up by end of DMI's forecast range, along the AK coast. With the Bering Strait already near melting-out, the Pacific melt front will soon stretch all the way from the CAA to Rangel Island.

The significance of this is enormous; in a normal year in the 20th century the Pacific barely got to the Strait, if at all, and the melt front was confined to the immediate coast (if that) and the tiny border in the vicinity of the Strait.

The two attached Regional ASIE plots for April 25 2016, illustrate the points that you are making about the Bering Strait and Beaufort ASIE actual, and potential, ice loss.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: bbr2314 on April 26, 2016, 09:33:57 PM
The only "positive" is that Hudson Bay is still mostly frozen solid and at a decent thickness, too -- Baffin is in a similar boat. There is also an extraordinary amount of ice in Ungava Bay at the moment, much more than normal, and I think all of these things are attributable to ++freshwater melt from Greenland as well as expansion of the Hadley Cell, which relegates a permanent polar low to the Baffin Bay vicinity in lieu of any permanent Polar Cell.

Snowpack over Quebec also remains robust and while losses are likely in coming days I think the trends re: AMOC shutdown are actually resulting in more durable first-yr ice in the aforementioned regions.

In either case, I would imagine the above might be a reason for Hansen's storms of years past. A sustained summertime cold patch in Hudson Bay/Quebec as a result of other changes for the warmer elsewhere would result in an increasing gradient between remaining cold up N & the heat belching from the S. In other words, bad things are coming our way.

Despite some heat, it is still winter over much of Quebec, and this shows no signs of letting up anytime soon. In fact, you can notice the EURO is now pushing the polar low much further SE than it had previously in the long-run, back to its "resting" spot over Hudson Bay vicinity.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tropicaltidbits.com%2Fanalysis%2Fmodels%2Fgem%2F2016042612%2Fgem_asnow_namer_40.png&hash=34d8925282b11e2ef347c3be061c3f49)

(https://www.ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/plot_anom_sdep.png)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 26, 2016, 09:47:50 PM
The only "positive" is that Hudson Bay is still mostly frozen solid and at a decent thickness, too -- Baffin is in a similar boat. There is also an extraordinary amount of ice in Ungava Bay at the moment, much more than normal, and I think all of these things are attributable to ++freshwater melt from Greenland as well as expansion of the Hadley Cell, which relegates a permanent polar low to the Baffin Bay vicinity in lieu of any permanent Polar Cell.

Snowpack over Quebec also remains robust and while losses are likely in coming days I think the trends re: AMOC shutdown are actually resulting in more durable first-yr ice in the aforementioned regions.

In either case, I would imagine the above might be a reason for Hansen's storms of years past. A sustained summertime cold patch in Hudson Bay/Quebec as a result of other changes for the warmer elsewhere would result in an increasing gradient between remaining cold up N & the heat belching from the S. In other words, bad things are coming our way.

Despite some heat, it is still winter over much of Quebec, and this shows no signs of letting up anytime soon. In fact, you can notice the EURO is now pushing the polar low much further SE than it had previously in the long-run, back to its "resting" spot over Hudson Bay vicinity.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tropicaltidbits.com%2Fanalysis%2Fmodels%2Fgem%2F2016042612%2Fgem_asnow_namer_40.png&hash=34d8925282b11e2ef347c3be061c3f49)

(https://www.ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/plot_anom_sdep.png)


Those regions will melt out anyways.

A PV anomaly over Eastern Canada means ridging W/NW of there.

So a direct warm flow into the arctic basin
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 26, 2016, 09:59:43 PM
The euro wants to get the party started about a month earlier than 2007.

A serious change is gonna have to happen without a fast track to unprecedented melt.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F4A30902.jpg&hash=7657021b1d8411b69ba68abed1e26ca1)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fkgj88XS.jpg&hash=a9fcb99e141d3cb8b8e629805ea564c1)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: bbr2314 on April 26, 2016, 10:06:29 PM
The EURO also wrecks the remaining Bering Sea ice under a ~980mb low, which also appears in a similar spot on the GFS. The Pacific side is going to be remnants by early May.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 26, 2016, 10:38:45 PM
Polynyas no longer freezing over:
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Siffy on April 26, 2016, 10:58:11 PM
Polynyas no longer freezing over:

Indeed, I've been watching this on the daily images taken by the EOSDIS World view. It's only within the last couple of days or so that the open water has stopped freezing over, looks like the melting season is underway for real now in the beaufort sea.

Also the lack of clouds over greenland are showing a large snow free patch in the south west, near Sisimiut something to keep an eye on maybe?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 26, 2016, 11:32:36 PM
Also the lack of clouds over greenland are showing a large snow free patch in the south west, near Sisimiut something to keep an eye on maybe?

not only maybe and one doesn't have to go that far south to almost all the snow gone

Ilulissat, Greenland
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.hotel-arctic.gl%2Ffiles%2Fwebcam%2Fwebcamshot.jpg&hash=218dcb41a4590f4d23a6a8dd4830acce)

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: oren on April 27, 2016, 12:14:47 AM
Also the lack of clouds over greenland are showing a large snow free patch in the south west, near Sisimiut something to keep an eye on maybe?

not only maybe and one doesn't have to go that far south to almost all the snow gone

Ilulissat, Greenland
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.hotel-arctic.gl%2Ffiles%2Fwebcam%2Fwebcamshot.jpg&hash=218dcb41a4590f4d23a6a8dd4830acce)

Wow!
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 27, 2016, 12:38:42 AM
Polynyas no longer freezing over:
Certainly fits the visual evidence on Worldview. 

Just think, all of those 10's of thousands of KM2 of low albedo open water, feeling the loving attention of rapidly increasing near 24hr sunlight under 1040hPa cloudless skies.

 :o :o :o :o :o

Could we write a nastier script for the start of the melt season?  I guess, but it would probably involve aliens.

[edit: A additional bad thought struck me.  With the snow cover, this is also near perfect conditions for ice-surface pooling of snow melt, caused by said insolation that doesn't get reflected.  Once inside the snowpack matrix, that energy is pretty well trapped, and the top cover of snow prevents it's exit.  Embryonic melt ponds just waiting for a little push in a few days.  I'm just so cheery today, aren't I?]
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 27, 2016, 12:52:20 AM
by now, 13 consecutive hours of temps above 5C and after ten hours, before that truck was back, behind it, there was nice naked brown spot. forecasts predict a few days around the range of  0-7C + wind + a bit of sun and those hills to the left share the fate of so many places nowadays.

last year that fiord melted out very very late in the season and now the channel at the entrance on clear conditions shows very dark spots which corresponds with some ice concentration maps.

if the weather patterns don't significantly change, we're in for a not so nice worse than expected surprise IMO

and Barrow will be next and that makes it large line form western greenland to chucki. only place that is somehow within the standards for now is ESS but that one will melt out anyways like hudson last year, was extremely late but was eventually doomed still.

ohh.... since i'm now a citicen when shall i get my passport? before or after the tax bill? haha.....

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kimmirutweather.com%2Fwebcam.jpg&hash=258d28636277de27e4ecadcb151514ea)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Watching_from_Canberra on April 27, 2016, 08:48:27 AM
Long time lurker here - just had to comment on the previous post.

Magnamentis's last post includes a webcam image of Kimmirut, Nunavut which seems to be suggesting the temperature at 2am is around 6degC.  Well, I'm in Canberra, Australia and we went down to 2.8degC last night (not unusual for here).  My latitude is about 35 degrees, not 62 degrees though.  What's going on up there??
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 27, 2016, 10:23:56 AM
Polynyas no longer freezing over:

Looks that way. A close up view:
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: werther on April 27, 2016, 10:53:46 AM
I’ve been looking at Wave Activity Flux once more to try to get a grip of what’s upon the Arctic at present. The circulation seems to rapidly accelerate from the known climatic mean into unknown patterns.
It led me to question how heat would be transferred to the Arctic. I tried to generalize the Rossby Wave patterns, FI like this in ’13:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FArctic%2520ice%25202013%2FTotal500Mbwaveaxes1213small_zps10075d47.jpg&hash=bdd16ece07e6cb23871e5aca211b9224)

It resembles mean 10-day positions of ridges and troughs during winter ’12-’13.

Right now the pattern seems stuck around these positions:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2F500Mb%2520Geo%2520ano%252001%2520to%252020042016%2520r%2520and%2520t_zpsjtt7cmka.jpg&hash=b338325f5f5bb8abe00038c95850a9af)

In the 3D mental visualization that I’ve learned to make (which is subject to my limited capacities, I’m aware…), the transfer of heat would concentrate on the tips of the ridges.
Following that visualization, I struck on this study:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~sbf1/papers/Flournoy_etal_2016.pdf (http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~sbf1/papers/Flournoy_etal_2016.pdf)

It describes a mechanism that may very well have influenced the Arctic winter that just ended:

Tropically Excited Arctic Warming (TEAM)

Now that sunlight has arrived all over the Arctic, import of large volumes of humid air may have changed into the build-up of that persistent high over the Beaufort sector of the Central Arctic Basin.
And very persistent it is, like the ridging over Western North America, Greenland and the Ural region between Russia and Siberia. Not to speak of the nasty trough over Western Europe, that causes wet, cold weather seemingly without an end over here.

Anyway, let’s keep an eye on proceeding melt/disruption in the Beaufort Sea. But that’s not the only place where this melt season will produce surprises. The ridges over Greenland and the Ural have preconditioned the Labrador Sea/baffin Bay and the Kara Sea.

Expect some rapid extent losses over there next two weeks.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: werther on April 27, 2016, 10:58:37 AM
Ah, I forgot to mention what looks interesting comparing the general wave positions during winter '12-'13 and the momentary positions right now.
The Western American ridge is right where ridging is expected. The Atlantic ridge however, is displaced. It doesn't centre on the British Isles, but on Greenland.

Let's hope it won't reside there into summer!
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Nick_Naylor on April 27, 2016, 12:55:51 PM
Polynyas no longer freezing over:


Looking at Beaufort in Worldview, it looks like maybe 10% of Beaufort "ice" is frozen-over polynyas - translucent first-month ice. So even the low numbers we do have overstate the true state of the ice.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmap2.vis.earthdata.nasa.gov%2Fimage-download%3FTIME%3D2016117%26amp%3Bextent%3D-2206095.666334097%2C-268602.1119020312%2C-1617295.6663340968%2C318149.8880979688%26amp%3Bepsg%3D3413%26amp%3Blayers%3DMODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%2CCoastlines%26amp%3Bopacities%3D1%2C1%26amp%3Bworldfile%3Dfalse%26amp%3Bformat%3Dimage%2Fjpeg%26amp%3Bwidth%3D575%26amp%3Bheight%3D573&hash=1644601070d5c78f69bfaccefc8c410d)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on April 27, 2016, 12:56:37 PM
The animation below looks at the squishy mechanical coupling between an expanding radius of rotation for the Beaufort Gyre (as driven by wind associated with the stationary high pressure) and enhanced export out the Fram Strait for five days ending 26 Apr 16.

The pairing shown has nominal zero offset, ie the two parts originate from what on WorldView is called the same day. Since the satellite is in near-polar orbit, there would actually be a delay between when the Fram is imaged and when Aqua gets over the Beaufort, likely proportional to the 130º degree difference in longitudes, or 24*(130/360) which is 8.7 hours. There may be time stamps on the individual tiles which may be in the Worldfile.zip.

At any rate, it is easy to add a nominal day or two to Fram's offset to allow for non-rigid coupling. What's needed though is an abrupt change in the Beaufort Gyre with a distinctive signature that generates a recognizable and unambiguous counterpart in the Fram.

Contrary to expectations, the new development over the last 2-3 days has been a tightening of the Beaufort Gyre, seemingly with the inner core seeking to slightly rotate faster than compatible with central Arctic ice strength. The resulting torque on the ice is causing it to fracture in the east which will facilitate independent inner rotation at the expense of coupled rotation above and beyond Prince Patrick.

However the Gyre is still pushing the central ice pack strongly poleward (upper right of animations) so I don't expect to see diminishment of export down the Fram as this new development unfolds. The still image from nullschool shows a favorable wind situation for spin-up, though it is slightly off-center relative to ice motion.

The 3rd animation shows a flux gate halfway down the coast of East Greenland. It;s a little choppy as I've deleted  cloudy days (though some could be lifted with advanced techniques_. In theory we could provide real-time monitoring of export area and volume (using various thickness products) using the WorldView or Hycom animation of the flux gate.

The Fram has been studied for decades, though as Neven notes, cryosphere publications lag with the latest often looking backward to 2012 and earlier. The Fram has a mooring transect in the north that measures current, temperature and thickness of ice passing overhead but data has to be periodically retrieved by ship. A lot is known about ocean currents in the area. Below is a selection of 2016 papers:

Fram Strait and Greenland Sea transports, water masses, and water mass transformations 1999–2010 (and beyond)
M Marnela

The Expedition PS93 of the Research Vessel POLARSTERN to the Greenland Sea and the Fram Strait in 2015
R Stein

Eddy‐driven recirculation of Atlantic Water in Fram Strait
T Hattermann

The inflow of Atlantic water at the Fram Strait and its interannual variability
T Kawasaki

Submarine Mass Wasting on Hovgaard Ridge, Fram Strait, European Arctic
M Forwick
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 27, 2016, 04:45:15 PM
24h or temps between 4 and 7C !

Truck is gone hence the naked earth is showing, no sun yet but we're in for a few sunshine hours in the coming days so watch out what happens to those hills.

since the image above updates to last image we cannot compare but those who saw yesterdays image perhaps remember that the snow was white while it's getting darker now. looking forward to some muddy rough roads upon first sunshine hour.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kimmirutweather.com%2Fwebcam.jpg&hash=258d28636277de27e4ecadcb151514ea)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 27, 2016, 06:00:54 PM
Probably this is a bit BS, because it sounds very early for snow being removed and so, but I wonder if during this April a lot of snow over Beaufort has been swept away toward ESS. Just because I recently found this article that estimates a 40% of snow removal by sublimation and a 10% by wind blowing (and if some of that sublimation had happened during this dry sunny windy month, let alone the blowing :-| ),

http://goo.gl/u193G9 (http://goo.gl/u193G9)

Where would the added humidity go? Slowly deposed with the blown snow as the air mass flows towards the ESS? I mean, it's been almost one month same pattern non-stop.

Anyway. A question blowing in the wind. I doubt snow models could capture such subtleties, if they happened.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 27, 2016, 06:14:42 PM
@seasailor sorry for the noob question, what does BS stand for?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: DoomInTheUK on April 27, 2016, 06:18:52 PM
Mag - Something like Bull ShootI suspect.  ::)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 27, 2016, 06:25:30 PM
that's beyond my english skills, thanks for your help, interesting choice of words  ;)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 27, 2016, 06:39:32 PM
@seasailor sorry for the noob question, what does BS stand for?

Bering Strait, of course!  ;D
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 27, 2016, 07:01:14 PM
ok i believe you because i want to  ;)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on April 27, 2016, 07:18:02 PM
Proof Neven is not a native English speaker! 8)
@seasailor sorry for the noob question, what does BS stand for?

Bering Strait, of course!  ;D
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 27, 2016, 07:30:27 PM
BULLSHIT Tor! :P ;D
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 27, 2016, 08:12:23 PM
@seasailor sorry for the noob question, what does BS stand for?

Bering Strait, of course!  ;D

Yeah that too : - )
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 27, 2016, 08:13:02 PM
BULLSHIT Tor! :P ;D
That is BS, too
:P
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 27, 2016, 08:14:14 PM
@seasailor sorry for the noob question, what does BS stand for?

LOL ;-)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on April 27, 2016, 09:12:35 PM
So , post 2007 how many 'good' summers has the Arctic basin seen. Now I'm using 'good' in the way I would for my part of the UK and do not mean "good for holding onto as much ice as possible" good.

07' was an 8 out of 10 on the scale of 'good summers' . So if 3 out of 10 is an 'average' summer and 1 out of ten is an 'ice retentive summer' how many 'good summers' has the basin seen since 07'?

In the UK the question would run from 06' but same sh1t!

To me we have not seen one 'good Summer' since 07'.

2008/2009/2013/2014 were '1's' or 2's and the rest were 3's

What if this summer is a 4 or a 5? If a '3' gives us 2010 or 2012 (from their individual 'start points') then where would a '4' or a '5' leave us in Sept?

Of course some years will be a '0' or a '10'.........
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 27, 2016, 09:48:33 PM
Ok done with the Bering Strait, I hope.
Large extent of Kara ice might be wet due to rain, this MODIS 3-6-7 image from yesterday shows big area of darker red tone (which I believe can be a sign of wet surface). It has been there since the day before, at least. Today clouds hide the zone.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: plinius on April 27, 2016, 10:04:38 PM
Probably this is a bit BS, because it sounds very early for snow being removed and so, but I wonder if during this April a lot of snow over Beaufort has been swept away toward ESS. Just because I recently found this article that estimates a 40% of snow removal by sublimation and a 10% by wind blowing (and if some of that sublimation had happened during this dry sunny windy month, let alone the blowing :-| ),

http://goo.gl/u193G9 (http://goo.gl/u193G9)

Where would the added humidity go? Slowly deposed with the blown snow as the air mass flows towards the ESS? I mean, it's been almost one month same pattern non-stop.

Anyway. A question blowing in the wind. I doubt snow models could capture such subtleties, if they happened.

Mass transport does not allow you to blow your entire snow cover into the ESS. Mass transport is <1kg/(ms), i.e. for a thousand km wide strip you could transport << 1.0e-6 kg/s and m^2 at maximum feasible windspeed, figuring bad angles, lower speeds, etc. you transport off <0.1 mg/s and m^2, or <8g/m^2 and day  (that is less than 8micrometers water equivalent). Doesn't work.

What their paper is about is dumping the snow into leads, which is a sizeable fraction of the annual budget.

Concerning sublimation - I am no expert, but due to the spring warming in action the capacity for water vapor increases continuously, so you will sublimate snow across the whole line, as rising temperatures keep the humidity down. In this case it is also more important where the surface divergence is: The air sinking near the centre of the high pressure system has the lowest humidity.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on April 27, 2016, 10:25:21 PM
As a beginner at this I was playing with climate reanalyzer and noticed that the whole of the Mackenzie river basin was going to have high heat anomalies for at least a couple of days, With the Great Slave lake seeing temperature highs of 25°C. Reading a review of 2012, the warm Mackenzie water is argued to have a big impact on the Beaufort Sea:
(http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013GL058956/full (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013GL058956/full)

Their analysis shows the landfast ice breaking up after the 14th of June, with what looks like a 'tiny' lead on the seaward side of the landfast ice, certainly compared to the images from this year.

I wondered if anybody had an idea of exactly how much heat and meltwater had to end up in the MacKenzie before it started flowing into the Beaufort sea and if there was any record of the dates in the past when it did so? Climate Reanalyzer also show that all the snow cover for much of the watershed melting by May 3rd.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on April 27, 2016, 10:39:59 PM
Quote
BS chatter is soooo boring
Forum 'airheads' have a major role to play this season because to the extent that stationary air pressure patterns are foreseeable and the details fixable after the fact by reanalysis the wind patterns are as well, and so ice fragmentation, insolation access, and ice export. Meteorology thus rules, though oceanic currents, turbulence, turbidity, river inputs etc have substantial roles to play.

However for the Beaufort Gyre we are not so interested wind velocity resulting from highs and lows but rather in the instantaneous wind power density, which is what actually makes the ice move. Up to minor adjustments for air density, that's given by the cube of the wind speed on the area moved.

The third power comes in because power is rate of change of kinetic energy which is the integral of forces acting to change momentum which bring in mv and then 1/2mv2, with the mass flux dm/,dt is ~density x flow rate the 3rd power of v.

Eyeballing a predictive pressure chart or wind display doesn't work for a second reason: wind power averages play out non-linearly because of the cube. A floe seeing a steady wind speed of 20 km/hr will be dramatically less moved than if wind were flat half the time and 40 km/hr the other half.

Sea ice has another complexity missing in wind turbine blades: surface roughness, raised edges of floes and compression ridges. These disproportionately catch the wind compared to a uniform hard ice surface. This creates a vicious cycle in a stationary wind pattern: the longer the Beaufort gyrates, the more the ice cracks up, the more it is hit by the wind, the more it cracks up...

Fortunately for us the instantaneous wind power density WPD is a display option at nullschool calculated at 3 hour intervals. A sample of that is shown below. There is no forward WPD prediction at this site or Hycom though it could be instructive.

Two very recent Beaufort publications:

Recent changes in sea ice area flux through the Beaufort Sea during the summer
SEL Howell 2016
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JC011464/full (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JC011464/full) DOI: 10.1002/2015JC011464

Replacement of multiyear sea ice and changes in the open water season duration in the Beaufort Sea since 2004
RJ Galley 2016
J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 121, 1806–1823, doi:10.1002/ 2015JC011583.

http://web.mit.edu/windenergy/windweek/Presentations/Wind%20Energy%20101.pdf (http://web.mit.edu/windenergy/windweek/Presentations/Wind%20Energy%20101.pdf)  wind energy 101 at MIT
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on April 27, 2016, 10:43:44 PM
Probably this is a bit BS, because it sounds very early for snow being removed and so, but I wonder if during this April a lot of snow over Beaufort has been swept away toward ESS. Just because I recently found this article that estimates a 40% of snow removal by sublimation and a 10% by wind blowing (and if some of that sublimation had happened during this dry sunny windy month, let alone the blowing :-| ),

http://goo.gl/u193G9 (http://goo.gl/u193G9)

Where would the added humidity go? Slowly deposed with the blown snow as the air mass flows towards the ESS? I mean, it's been almost one month same pattern non-stop.

Anyway. A question blowing in the wind. I doubt snow models could capture such subtleties, if they happened.
maybe something to discuss on another thread. I have been thinking about this since you posted that research. What I noticed is how relative humidity measured by Obuoys is lower in winter than in summer. That would suggest that there is a sink somewhere where water vapour is removed from air, i.e. deposited as frost? or precipitated as snow somewhere?
At low temperatures not a lot of water vapour is needed to saturate air so why isn't it? If the measured values are correct they are  down to around 70%
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 28, 2016, 12:15:27 AM
@plinius
So if I understood you, dry air mass will sublimate ice, increase its humidity and transport that vapor away from the high pressure center. It wont saturate if the high pressure system is strong enough to keep the air moving, and if temperatures are high enough... correct?

@Andreas From your graph, it seems humidity at that location has been steadily increasing during April but staying below 100% for the time being, no fog.
I dont understand what you meant about humidity in Winter though, why shouldnt make sense the lower humidity given the absence of heat sources in Winter? By the time humid air reaches the Central Arctic, it should have yielded most of its latent heat, so very low vapor content.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Michael Hauber on April 28, 2016, 12:23:33 AM
So , post 2007 how many 'good' summers has the Arctic basin seen. Now I'm using 'good' in the way I would for my part of the UK and do not mean "good for holding onto as much ice as possible" good.

07' was an 8 out of 10 on the scale of 'good summers' . So if 3 out of 10 is an 'average' summer and 1 out of ten is an 'ice retentive summer' how many 'good summers' has the basin seen since 07'?

In the UK the question would run from 06' but same sh1t!

To me we have not seen one 'good Summer' since 07'.

2008/2009/2013/2014 were '1's' or 2's and the rest were 3's

What if this summer is a 4 or a 5? If a '3' gives us 2010 or 2012 (from their individual 'start points') then where would a '4' or a '5' leave us in Sept?

Of course some years will be a '0' or a '10'.........

I'd consider 5 to be average, and rate them:

2007: 10
2008: 7
2009: 4
2010: 7
2011: 8
2012: 9
2013: 2
2014: 4
2015: 6

Chris Reynolds showed (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,499.0.html) that the pattern from 2007 to 2012 was unusual for the time period since 1980, so it is reasonable to score most of these years as above average melt years. 

The question is why did we get this pattern?  Was it some natural variation that is now over, or perhaps may reoccur in 2 or 5 or 50 years time?  Or is it somehow triggered by AGW, and the lack of this pattern since 2013 is a natural variation.  Which may now be over as the current pattern looks a bit like the 2007-2012 pattern.

The current run of above average temperatures shown in Andrew Slater's page (http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/) is quite remarkable in its persistence.  I cannot find anything like it going back into recent years.  And consider that a good part of December was below average, and Oct to Nov was only a little above average and in my opinion would count as being 'cool' when compared to recent years.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 28, 2016, 12:26:43 AM
I wondered if anybody had an idea of exactly how much heat and meltwater had to end up in the MacKenzie before it started flowing into the Beaufort sea and if there was any record of the dates in the past when it did so?

See: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/beaufort-sea-ice-graphs/#Mackenzie-Flow (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/beaufort-sea-ice-graphs/#Mackenzie-Flow)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 28, 2016, 12:28:18 AM
As a beginner at this I was playing with climate reanalyzer and noticed that the whole of the Mackenzie river basin was going to have high heat anomalies for at least a couple of days, With the Great Slave lake seeing temperature highs of 25°C. Reading a review of 2012, the warm Mackenzie water is argued to have a big impact on the Beaufort Sea:
(http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013GL058956/full (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013GL058956/full)

Their analysis shows the landfast ice breaking up after the 14th of June, with what looks like a 'tiny' lead on the seaward side of the landfast ice, certainly compared to the images from this year.

I wondered if anybody had an idea of exactly how much heat and meltwater had to end up in the MacKenzie before it started flowing into the Beaufort sea and if there was any record of the dates in the past when it did so? Climate Reanalyzer also show that all the snow cover for much of the watershed melting by May 3rd.
I wrote about this paper back in 2014: Warm rivers and Arctic sea ice loss (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/03/warm-rivers-and-arctic-sea-ice-loss.html)

What I found interesting at the time, was this quote by the lead author:

“When the Mackenzie River’s water is held back behind the sea ice barrier, it accumulates and gets warmer later in the summer,” said Nghiem. “So when it breaks through the barrier, it’s like a strong surge, unleashing warmer waters into the Arctic Ocean that are very effective at melting sea ice. Without this ice barrier, the warm river waters would trickle out little by little, and there would be more time for the heat to dissipate to the atmosphere and to the cooler, deeper ocean.”

Maybe you can find some more info in that blog post and the comments below, RTG.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: plinius on April 28, 2016, 12:33:40 AM
@plinius
So if I understood you, dry air mass will sublimate ice, increase its humidity and transport that vapor away from the high pressure center. It wont saturate if the high pressure system is strong enough to keep the air moving, and if temperatures are high enough... correct?
Almost. You need the air to warm up, or you need fresh air dropping from above (adiabatic warming). Both keeps moisture levels significantly below 100%.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on April 28, 2016, 01:53:48 AM

Thanks Neven and Jim! So much to learn. There seems to be discrepancy in the timing between the flood of warm water into the Beaufort sea after June 14 2012, and the spike of flow at Red River (I believe at the head of the delta?), which is around the 30th May 2012. That's an awful lot of water to hold back for a few weeks! 
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: cesium62 on April 28, 2016, 02:07:15 AM
So , post 2007 how many 'good' summers has the Arctic basin seen. Now I'm using 'good' in the way I would for my part of the UK and do not mean "good for holding onto as much ice as possible" good.

07' was an 8 out of 10 on the scale of 'good summers' . So if 3 out of 10 is an 'average' summer and 1 out of ten is an 'ice retentive summer' how many 'good summers' has the basin seen since 07'?

In the UK the question would run from 06' but same sh1t!

To me we have not seen one 'good Summer' since 07'.

2008/2009/2013/2014 were '1's' or 2's and the rest were 3's

What if this summer is a 4 or a 5? If a '3' gives us 2010 or 2012 (from their individual 'start points') then where would a '4' or a '5' leave us in Sept?

Of course some years will be a '0' or a '10'.........

I'd consider 5 to be average, and rate them:

2007: 10
2008: 7
2009: 4
2010: 7
2011: 8
2012: 9
2013: 2
2014: 4
2015: 6

Chris Reynolds showed (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,499.0.html) that the pattern from 2007 to 2012 was unusual for the time period since 1980, so it is reasonable to score most of these years as above average melt years. 

The question is why did we get this pattern?  Was it some natural variation that is now over, or perhaps may reoccur in 2 or 5 or 50 years time?  Or is it somehow triggered by AGW, and the lack of this pattern since 2013 is a natural variation.  Which may now be over as the current pattern looks a bit like the 2007-2012 pattern.

The current run of above average temperatures shown in Andrew Slater's page (http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/) is quite remarkable in its persistence.  I cannot find anything like it going back into recent years.  And consider that a good part of December was below average, and Oct to Nov was only a little above average and in my opinion would count as being 'cool' when compared to recent years.

As perhaps a slightly different approach... Slater apparently also has monthly rankings (http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/IDX/tair_ranks.html) for how hot each year is that month.   The Degree Day Thawing rankings from near the bottom of that page would tend to correspond to how amenable the summer is to basking.  From that chart, and splitting the ranks into 10 groups, I would get:

2007:  10
2008:    5
2009:    6
2010:    4
2011:  10
2012:    8
2013:    2
2014:    3
2015:    6
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Michael Hauber on April 28, 2016, 04:58:07 AM

As perhaps a slightly different approach... Slater apparently also has monthly rankings (http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/IDX/tair_ranks.html) for how hot each year is that month.   The Degree Day Thawing rankings from near the bottom of that page would tend to correspond to how amenable the summer is to basking.  From that chart, and splitting the ranks into 10 groups, I would get:

2007:  10
2008:    5
2009:    6
2010:    4
2011:  10
2012:    8
2013:    2
2014:    3
2015:    6

A good approach.  Interesting that 2010 scores so low.  Conditions certainly slammed into a brick wall in summer after a screaming start, which saw 2010 500k lower than same day 2007 at the end of June.  But PIOMAS suggests a massive drop in volume during 2010 which was arguably as significant as the 2007 losses, and I've tended to think of 2010 as a strong melt year where the impact of the melt on volume was partially hidden by dispersion when considering extent and area.

2012 is hard to assess.  Its a bit hard to tell how much of the strong record was due to strong melt conditions that year, and how much was due to preconditioning in 2011 and perhaps 2010.  I remember the comments at the time that despite cloudy conditions the ice continued to melt rapidly.  My assessment of ADS and MODIS images suggests that 2012 had the earliest start to widespread surface melt ponds of any year, and I suspect that a moderately strong but short lived low pressure system early in summer acted to spread out the ice to allow albedo effects in the open water between each floe.  And may have actually had more impact on the final result than the much more widely discussed record breaking cyclone late in the year which acted mostly to melt ice that would have melted out anyway - specifically a significant area of ice towards Siberia that had largely detached from the main pack.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 28, 2016, 05:18:15 AM
So there is a huge correlation between big melt seasons and early snow cover loss.

In order 2005, 07, 11, 12, 15, 16

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FR08s5CR.jpg&hash=8e7daaa771d85b3be4e8f82274b1b688)

Unreal

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fsl03F7u.jpg&hash=a3f042c7378579d22e9689224f80ba40)

Even more unreal.  It's COMPLETELY UNPRECEDENTED.

COULD BE A THOUSAND YEARS SINCE WE HAVE SEEN THIS.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FG6nAJpy.jpg&hash=651ece4b3ef1294884bb03c0f8eefe8a)

The kara is already seeing sustained surface MELT.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fd668sAy.jpg&hash=da54ca31bbdfef6717c46162289d65a1)



IT'S APRIL 28th
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 28, 2016, 06:36:25 AM
So there is a huge correlation between big melt seasons and early snow cover loss.

In order 2005, 07, 11, 12, 15, 16
Unreal
Even more unreal.  It's COMPLETELY UNPRECEDENTED.
COULD BE A THOUSAND YEARS SINCE WE HAVE SEEN THIS.
The kara is already seeing sustained surface MELT.
IT'S APRIL 28th

Add... now under 12.5 million KM2 of extent (per IJIS).  Add... astonishing heat on top of the snow melt you point out.  Looking at the Beaufort, insolation in the water is already tearing up vulnerable lead ice formed in the last few weeks.

Export through the Fram of MYI is over 7000KM2/day.

The anti-cyclone is grinding ice across the basin into slush.

I think a system state change may be taking place before our eyes.

If things don't cool off as a result of feed backs in June, I'm not sure there's any way we can avoid beating 2012 by a large margin.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Revillo on April 28, 2016, 08:58:34 AM
It's not you. The ice images changed on June 6 2013, so they don't line up with most of the other layers. They plan to "eventually" re-project the older images, but I'm not holding my breath."

Ah that makes a lot of sense, I was wondering why 2013 looked so different form the others... I would take it down for the shame but perhaps it'll serve as a warning to others looking at the old worldview data.

Anyway, take a look at this gfs projection for May 3rd. Looks like siberia's gone ice fishing with a hook of high temperatures swirling into the arctic basin. Will the ice manage to avoid the bait and survive another season, or will our hero meet its untimely doom at the hands of anthropogenic warming and usher in a new clima(c)tic era for the denizens of earth? Stay tuned!

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FJRt5w4j.jpg&hash=d3865a22bc1ef2c4c10e3ea5250c69ef)

Yeah, i'm just here for the drama and pretty pictures.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: 6roucho on April 28, 2016, 09:12:42 AM
That looks much more menacing than the March 2016 AARI sheep.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: bbr2314 on April 28, 2016, 09:18:18 AM
The 00z EURO shows a blowtorch into the Beaufort more or less constantly through 240, with 850s hitting +8C or higher along the coast. I think the models have a hard time picking up on melt dynamics and as the repercussions from this are observed the extended-range outlook will likely turn even warmer as albedo feedback becomes involved re: open water.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: abbottisgone on April 28, 2016, 09:29:23 AM
Ok, so as a major recap: looking at everything since circa 2005- arctic extent wise- it could be said that there has only been a few major blowouts from the mean.

Given the above: "What can be pointed to as rock solid evidence that climate change is an issue?"

 ** Feel free to add other metrics! Otherwise, simply point out what in the arctic extent metric needs focussing on!!
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: abbottisgone on April 28, 2016, 09:32:35 AM
I ask these questions as a conservative world needs real indicators ... :o
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Siffy on April 28, 2016, 09:48:28 AM
So looking at the Kara sea on worldview it looks pretty vulnerable, what are the chances it melts out completely by the end of may?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: cesium62 on April 28, 2016, 09:49:41 AM

As perhaps a slightly different approach... Slater apparently also has monthly rankings (http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/IDX/tair_ranks.html) for how hot each year is that month.   The Degree Day Thawing rankings from near the bottom of that page would tend to correspond to how amenable the summer is to basking.  From that chart, and splitting the ranks into 10 groups, I would get:

2007:  10
2008:    5
2009:    6
2010:    4
2011:  10
2012:    8
2013:    2
2014:    3
2015:    6

A good approach.  Interesting that 2010 scores so low.  Conditions certainly slammed into a brick wall in summer after a screaming start, which saw 2010 500k lower than same day 2007 at the end of June.  But PIOMAS suggests a massive drop in volume during 2010 which was arguably as significant as the 2007 losses, and I've tended to think of 2010 as a strong melt year where the impact of the melt on volume was partially hidden by dispersion when considering extent and area.

2012 is hard to assess.  Its a bit hard to tell how much of the strong record was due to strong melt conditions that year, and how much was due to preconditioning in 2011 and perhaps 2010.  I remember the comments at the time that despite cloudy conditions the ice continued to melt rapidly.  My assessment of ADS and MODIS images suggests that 2012 had the earliest start to widespread surface melt ponds of any year, and I suspect that a moderately strong but short lived low pressure system early in summer acted to spread out the ice to allow albedo effects in the open water between each floe.  And may have actually had more impact on the final result than the much more widely discussed record breaking cyclone late in the year which acted mostly to melt ice that would have melted out anyway - specifically a significant area of ice towards Siberia that had largely detached from the main pack.

Someone had just asked about which summers were balmy, which is why I focused on thawing degree days.  The freezing degree days on the same page seems interesting as well.  While the 90s have plenty of high thawing degree days, the low freezing degree day years are mostly recent years.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: cesium62 on April 28, 2016, 09:58:09 AM
Ok, so as a major recap: looking at everything since circa 2005- arctic extent wise- it could be said that there has only been a few major blowouts from the mean.

Given the above: "What can be pointed to as rock solid evidence that climate change is an issue?"

 ** Feel free to add other metrics! Otherwise, simply point out what in the arctic extent metric needs focussing on!!

Um, yeah, 30% of recent years were huge blowout years.  The others were just typical new-normal years maintaining the low ice volumes created during the blow outs.

But I've just been watching _In the Heart of the Sea_ so I'm sympathetic to theories that whales are carting off the ice.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: 6roucho on April 28, 2016, 10:10:22 AM
Ok, so as a major recap: looking at everything since circa 2005- arctic extent wise- it could be said that there has only been a few major blowouts from the mean.

Given the above: "What can be pointed to as rock solid evidence that climate change is an issue?"

 ** Feel free to add other metrics! Otherwise, simply point out what in the arctic extent metric needs focussing on!!
The rapidly warming Arctic is itself rock-solid evidence that climate change is an issue. We don't need to see major blowouts from the mean since 2005: we can observe the trend over a much longer period than that.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 28, 2016, 10:18:23 AM
...
Add... now under 12.5 million KM2 of extent (per IJIS).  Add... astonishing heat on top of the snow melt you point out.  Looking at the Beaufort, insolation in the water is already tearing up vulnerable lead ice formed in the last few weeks.

Export through the Fram of MYI is over 7000KM2/day.

The anti-cyclone is grinding ice across the basin into slush.

I think a system state change may be taking place before our eyes.

If things don't cool off as a result of feed backs in June, I'm not sure there's any way we can avoid beating 2012 by a large margin.
Greetings, gentlemen.

There was massive acceleration of ice export through Fram this last 15/16 winter, as noted in the last paragraph of http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2015_midwinter_warming.html (http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2015_midwinter_warming.html) .

System state change it is, but personally i think it'd take more than one (or even, few) seasons for said change to be completed. The loss of significant summer ice cover (<1M area minimum) would occur far before the change would be completed, of course.

If it'll be this year, then prof. Maslowski's prediction (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/dec/09/us-navy-arctic-sea-ice-2016-melt) of 2016 +-3 years for nearly ice-free summer Arctic would be spot on. However so far i don't see the signs for 2016 to be _the_ year; not quite yet. Could be if the melt season will be one of most unfortunate for the ice, yes, but not very likely. 2017 is more likely to be, IMHO.

Oh, and today, i read that both DMI sea ice volume and Cryosphere Today sea ice area - are all-time-low for the date, and the trend is definitely for earlier development of melting this year.

I think it's quite likely to beat 2012 this year, but still more than 1M area would survive at the minimum.

P.S. And given the courage, knowledge and his own modelling research backing up his prediction, i think i may be forgiven for pasting the copy of Wieslaw Maslowski's prediction into this very post for the history. This quote: "Given the estimated trend and the volume estimate for October–November of 2007 at less than 9,000 km3, one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover." (c) Wieslaw Maslowski, ~2009 (iirc)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: abbottisgone on April 28, 2016, 10:52:14 AM
Ok, so as a major recap: looking at everything since circa 2005- arctic extent wise- it could be said that there has only been a few major blowouts from the mean.

Given the above: "What can be pointed to as rock solid evidence that climate change is an issue?"

 ** Feel free to add other metrics! Otherwise, simply point out what in the arctic extent metric needs focussing on!!

Um, yeah, 30% of recent years were huge blowout years.  The others were just typical new-normal years maintaining the low ice volumes created during the blow outs.

But I've just been watching _In the Heart of the Sea_ so I'm sympathetic to theories that whales are carting off the ice.
I appreciate the response as a conservative world needs actionable rationale on which to act.

If you caveat the rationale with 'of recent years' then automatically you aren't talking about 30 year trends, and I would further say you aren't even talking about 11 year trends which is a single solar cycle.

How can a conservative world- interested in staving off anarchy by keeping people gainfully employed- be expected to act on such arguably unactionable advice?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: abbottisgone on April 28, 2016, 10:55:45 AM
Ok, so as a major recap: looking at everything since circa 2005- arctic extent wise- it could be said that there has only been a few major blowouts from the mean.

Given the above: "What can be pointed to as rock solid evidence that climate change is an issue?"

 ** Feel free to add other metrics! Otherwise, simply point out what in the arctic extent metric needs focussing on!!
The rapidly warming Arctic is itself rock-solid evidence that climate change is an issue. We don't need to see major blowouts from the mean since 2005: we can observe the trend over a much longer period than that.
What is the smoking gun?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 28, 2016, 11:08:22 AM
...
How can a conservative world- interested in staving off anarchy by keeping people gainfully employed- be expected to act on such arguably unactionable advice?
This seems to be off-topic here, so i will not discuss this further (here) after completing this paragraph. You see, keeping people gainfully employed was, in general, possible so far - in terms of physical reality and resources required for people of the world to be (mostly) gainfully employed. But, this will change extremely very soon (in both geologic and historic terms) - present-day young adults are likely to see this change during their lifetime, and present-day kids - are very likely to see it. The time to act, in terms of any attempt to prevent this tragic event, is long gone - may be it was possible to prevent this if unprecedented, mankind-redefining action would be taken in 1970s and 1980s, but now it's too late. Now, it's only possible to delay the inevitable thermal maximum a little, but not for long and at the cost of creating much more rapid and damaging jump of temperature at a later point. Therefore, for both of said reasons, there is no actual meaning in either giving that sort of advice, nor acting on it, and this does not depend on whether one realizes it, or not (at least parts of conservative world certainly do, but are not willing to admit it in public).
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 28, 2016, 11:19:33 AM
I agree, the forum is very large and covers many, many subjects. There's a whole category for AGW in general.

----

Normally, I'd be saying (like I did last year): As soon as the easy ice is gone, this year will slow down, and the other years will catch up.

But there is still so much easy ice to go!

The weather needs to switch big time to slow this monster down.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: DavidR on April 28, 2016, 11:23:47 AM
I agree, the forum is very large and covers many, many subjects. There's a whole category for AGW in general.

----

Normally, I'd be saying (like I did last year): As soon as the easy ice is gone, this year will slow down, and the other years will catch up.

But there is still so much easy ice to go!

The weather needs to switch big time to slow this monster down.
Its also worth considering that both Hudson Bay and the Canadian Archipelago have been much  warmer than in recent years through Jan  - Mar.  We can expect an early onset of melt in those regions compared to recent years. 
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 28, 2016, 11:35:53 AM
Neven, about weather switching, it gets wild this year. In central Russia (Moscow region), this last 15/16 winter was insanely warm (see for yourself (https://www.rt.com/news/326679-moscow-winter-warm-temperatures/)), but some time around late March, the weather switched indeed, and now they have rather cool April (by recent years standards). It is my understanding that right now lots of cold is going to mainland Russia, and the only source large enough to affect this much land i can imagine - is the Arctic. Looking at the Jet Stream (http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream;sess=) and checking current temperature in London, Berlin, Moscow and Helsinki - i see that Arctic sends lots of air into UK, which then goes through continental Europe and into Russia, and then gets back to Arctic through Scandinavia, and with LOTS of those places lacking snow cover, air mass gets lots of warmth into it on its way. Which then melts Arctic. I suppose this configuration will remain for quite a while?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: oren on April 28, 2016, 11:38:12 AM
I agree, the forum is very large and covers many, many subjects. There's a whole category for AGW in general.

----

Normally, I'd be saying (like I did last year): As soon as the easy ice is gone, this year will slow down, and the other years will catch up.

But there is still so much easy ice to go!

The weather needs to switch big time to slow this monster down.
Looking at the regional extent charts, the major one that stands out is the Beaufort, which shouldn't be easy ice at all in April.
Kara, Barents, Bering, Baffin are tracking low but not very low, and Okhotsk which should be the easiest is having a normal year. So plenty more to go before the hardcore ice is reached.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Laurent on April 28, 2016, 11:44:51 AM
The grinding machine is expanding his territories to the Pole area.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 28, 2016, 12:37:54 PM
I've rescaled my UH AMSR2 Beaufort Sea ice area closeup graph this morning:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/#comment-214383 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/#comment-214383)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: 6roucho on April 28, 2016, 12:44:37 PM
Ok, so as a major recap: looking at everything since circa 2005- arctic extent wise- it could be said that there has only been a few major blowouts from the mean.

Given the above: "What can be pointed to as rock solid evidence that climate change is an issue?"

 ** Feel free to add other metrics! Otherwise, simply point out what in the arctic extent metric needs focussing on!!
The rapidly warming Arctic is itself rock-solid evidence that climate change is an issue. We don't need to see major blowouts from the mean since 2005: we can observe the trend over a much longer period than that.
What is the smoking gun?
That is the smoking gun. Are you requesting an argument from thermodynamics that when the temperature of water rises above the freezing point, ice starts to melt? Anyway, that's enough from me. I'm going to go back to reading about the science.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: meddoc on April 28, 2016, 12:46:03 PM
Some motherf*cker left the fridgedoor open!

It's snowing in UK, Germany, Austria:

http://www.vezess.hu/hirek/2016/04/27/ausztriat-megbenitotta-a-havazas-tizezrek-aram-nelkul/ (http://www.vezess.hu/hirek/2016/04/27/ausztriat-megbenitotta-a-havazas-tizezrek-aram-nelkul/)


Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 28, 2016, 12:53:21 PM
It may not be apparent from the area graph, but there is obviously some refreezing taking place in the Beaufort Sea:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#Beaufort (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#Beaufort)

An intriguing optical illusion too, to my ageing eyes at least!
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 28, 2016, 01:00:24 PM
Some motherf*cker left the fridgedoor open!

It's snowing in UK, Germany, Austria:

http://www.vezess.hu/hirek/2016/04/27/ausztriat-megbenitotta-a-havazas-tizezrek-aram-nelkul/ (http://www.vezess.hu/hirek/2016/04/27/ausztriat-megbenitotta-a-havazas-tizezrek-aram-nelkul/)
Farmers are crying in a 200-mile radius around me (except perhaps to the south). Hundreds of millions of euros of damage to fruit trees and other agricultural products. Arktis-Kälte they call it. I may join in the crying as the berry bushes had started to bloom already because it was 20-25 °C last week, and they've been hit hard by 3 nights of low temps/frost. Not to speak of the poor seedlings in the vegetable garden. I'm building a greenhouse next year.

Anyway, this is one for the Weird weather and Gardening threads.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 28, 2016, 01:02:06 PM
Beaufort Sea on April 13th, 20th and 27th:
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 28, 2016, 02:02:21 PM
Some motherf*cker left the fridgedoor open!

It's snowing in UK, Germany, Austria:

http://www.vezess.hu/hirek/2016/04/27/ausztriat-megbenitotta-a-havazas-tizezrek-aram-nelkul/ (http://www.vezess.hu/hirek/2016/04/27/ausztriat-megbenitotta-a-havazas-tizezrek-aram-nelkul/)
No wonder, considering my previous post. Jet Stream is nuts right now; more like Jet Streams, that is, if you'd ask me...

And i have the feeling that every snowflake dropping to gardens and fields of Europe now, a bit of cold is taken "out of" the Arctic to Europe, and the end result of that for the ice - average temperatures going higher and higher than normal. So right now farmers may well be crying about their dying crops and trees, and Neven may well end up rather angry about those berries, too, but if this would go on for any long, then we're also talking about sea ice arriving to melting point temperature even sooner than could be expected with everything else "the same" - probably (no concrete certainty in anything in Arctic, these days). Thus, likely more open water for more of max insolation period, with rather obvious consequences.

P.S. So i think, some temporary greenhouse (http://www.twowests.co.uk/category/greenhouses/temporary-greenhouses) would be just enough, it's for a few years anyway.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: DoomInTheUK on April 28, 2016, 02:16:43 PM

An intriguing optical illusion too, to my ageing eyes at least!

That looks like very thick ice!!!
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 28, 2016, 02:18:53 PM

An intriguing optical illusion too, to my ageing eyes at least!

That looks like very thick ice!!!
Yep. Very much so. Ironic it'd be, if not so cruel (in my book anyway).
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Stephen on April 28, 2016, 02:19:25 PM
Some motherf*cker left the fridgedoor open!

It's snowing in UK, Germany, Austria:

http://www.vezess.hu/hirek/2016/04/27/ausztriat-megbenitotta-a-havazas-tizezrek-aram-nelkul/ (http://www.vezess.hu/hirek/2016/04/27/ausztriat-megbenitotta-a-havazas-tizezrek-aram-nelkul/)
No wonder, considering my previous post. Jet Stream is nuts right now; more like Jet Streams, that is, if you'd ask me...

As a cycling fan I was watching the Liege-Bastogne-Liege race last Sunday (Ardennes region of Belgium).  The poor riders started their ride at 1C and were continually riding through snow showers.  Great way to get frozen fingers.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on April 28, 2016, 02:55:25 PM
Quote
timing between the flood of warm water into the Beaufort sea and the spike of flow at Red River (at the head of the delta?), which is around the 30th May 2012. That's an awful lot of water to hold back for a few weeks! 
Rox was asking about the location of the main gauging station on the Mackenzie River. It is located at the confluence with the Tsiigèhnjik or Arctic Red River about 10 km upstream of the current delta  The main spike in flow occurs early in May as can be seen on the links to data and break-up video provided by Jim H above.

Quote
Of all the outstanding natural features of the river, its hydrology is the most fascinating. During the ice break-up in May, the level of the Arctic Red can rise 10 metres above winter levels. The Arctic Red typically clears itself of ice before the Mackenzie. When the Mackenzie ice breaks, it too will rise 10 metres or more. Mackenzie River ice is then pushed upriver along the smaller Arctic Red. In years of high water, Mackenzie River ice can be pushed 70 km up the Arctic Red. The flowing ice leaves scars on river bank trees, 5 m above the river surface. http://www.chrs.ca/Rivers/ArcticRed/ArcticRed-F_e.php (http://www.chrs.ca/Rivers/ArcticRed/ArcticRed-F_e.php)
The best color coverage will be provided by Sentinel 2A and Landsat-8, the latter having better image previewing at adequate resolution but less frequent coverage. The 27 Apr 16 image is quite cloudy and the delta snowy; LC80640112016111LGN00 on the 20th shows the whole region nicely including old and new ice in the Beaufort Gyre (3rd image).

It should not be assumed just because the river surface is frozen that water does not continue to flow to a certain extent  beneath, perhaps through subsurface gravels. Indeed, looking closely at sea surface salinity, Hycom shows a consistent dilution off the delta (attached animation, yellow arrow).

http://sentinel-pds.s3-website.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/#ImagerySearch (http://sentinel-pds.s3-website.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/#ImagerySearch)
http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/ (http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/)
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/ (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 28, 2016, 03:26:02 PM
edit: ah, two days difference, i see now. Striking out this one. ><

Rather strange thing i see about SST anomaly next to Novaya Zemlya. According to this (http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/), we have Novaya Zemlya's western tip touched by above-zero Celcius water, the rest of its western shore washed by some -1.5...0C water. Ok, but then according to this one (http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.4.25.2016.gif), we have some +1...+2.5C SST anomaly in the same region - near western shore of Novaya Zemlya and large part of the ocean next ot it, but this large "yellow" part of the ocean then has that "light-blue" thin stripe around it, which is a _negative_ SST anomaly of -1...-1.5C. And i don't see anything resembling such a "cold stripe around big warmer part" on the former map.

What gives?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on April 28, 2016, 03:38:39 PM
Quote
SST anomaly next to Novaya Zemlya. What gives?
The linked image has terrible resolution and distortion in the Arctic Ocean. Maybe look at the Arctic SST or nullschool anomaly zooms? http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticsst_nowcast_anim30d.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticsst_nowcast_anim30d.gif) The nullschool color palettes are unfortunate for many of the views so it's necessary to experiment with variations to see what was in the data. (The palette should be embedded so it co-varies.

More adventures with Landsat color of the Beaufort Gyre. The image below used bands 235 for RGB except ImageJ loaded them backwards as 532 RGB, giving fairly decent color despite being all wrong. It's feasible to measure the area of open water in leads using a color picker.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: DavidR on April 28, 2016, 03:39:12 PM
So , post 2007 how many 'good' summers has the Arctic basin seen. Now I'm using 'good' in the way I would for my part of the UK and do not mean "good for holding onto as much ice as possible" good.

07' was an 8 out of 10 on the scale of 'good summers' . So if 3 out of 10 is an 'average' summer and 1 out of ten is an 'ice retentive summer' how many 'good summers' has the basin seen since 07'?

In the UK the question would run from 06' but same sh1t!

To me we have not seen one 'good Summer' since 07'.

2008/2009/2013/2014 were '1's' or 2's and the rest were 3's

What if this summer is a 4 or a 5? If a '3' gives us 2010 or 2012 (from their individual 'start points') then where would a '4' or a '5' leave us in Sept?

Of course some years will be a '0' or a '10'.........

I'd consider 5 to be average, and rate them:

2007: 10
2008: 7
2009: 4
2010: 7
2011: 8
2012: 9
2013: 2
2014: 4
2015: 6

Chris Reynolds showed (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,499.0.html) that the pattern from 2007 to 2012 was unusual for the time period since 1980, so it is reasonable to score most of these years as above average melt years. 

The question is why did we get this pattern?  Was it some natural variation that is now over, or perhaps may reoccur in 2 or 5 or 50 years time?  Or is it somehow triggered by AGW, and the lack of this pattern since 2013 is a natural variation.  Which may now be over as the current pattern looks a bit like the 2007-2012 pattern.

The current run of above average temperatures shown in Andrew Slater's page (http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/) is quite remarkable in its persistence.  I cannot find anything like it going back into recent years.  And consider that a good part of December was below average, and Oct to Nov was only a little above average and in my opinion would count as being 'cool' when compared to recent years.
If  2007  was a 10 we are going to have to change the scale this year.  Based on esrl-noaa data 2007 rated between 11 - 18th on the Air and SST temperatures for the Arctic and for 80N+ from January to March.  It  was however closer to the second place year, on all four measures, than 2016 the current record holder. Thats why we are seeing the melt season off to a flying start and with an El Nino in the air nothing is likely to hold the temperature back. 

In the summer 2007 rated third behind 2012 and 2011, with  2015 and 2010 rounding up the top 5. In the May 2007 like 2015 failed to make it to the 20 warmest. 

So we can go a whole lot higher than a 10.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 28, 2016, 04:05:10 PM
If  2007  was a 10 we are going to have to change the scale this year.  Based on esrl-noaa data 2007 rated between 11 - 18th on the Air and SST temperatures for the Arctic and for 80N+ from January to March.  It  was however closer to the second place year, on all four measures, than 2016 the current record holder. Thats why we are seeing the melt season off to a flying start and with an El Nino in the air nothing is likely to hold the temperature back. 

In the summer 2007 rated third behind 2012 and 2011, with  2015 and 2010 rounding up the top 5. In the May 2007 like 2015 failed to make it to the 20 warmest. 

So we can go a whole lot higher than a 10.
You can't just focus on temperature. You also need to take atmospheric pressure into account (Dipole etc). 2007 was exceptional in this respect. Weeks on end a strong Beaufort Gyre was pushing out ice through Fram Strait, compressing the rest of the ice pack, with the Sun beating down incessantly.

If we get a 10 like this again, extent will go much, much lower because ice has become so much thinner since then.

Quote
I'd consider 5 to be average, and rate them:

2007: 10
2008: 7
2009: 4
2010: 7
2011: 8
2012: 9
2013: 2
2014: 4
2015: 6

As things can always get worse, I'd go for:

2007: 9
2008: 5
2009: 4
2010: 6
2011: 7
2012: 8
2013: 2
2014: 4
2015: 6
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Laurent on April 28, 2016, 04:13:37 PM
Banks island will see the ice gone on the north side start of may. Last year we had to wait mid June to see it...
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on April 28, 2016, 05:39:59 PM

As things can always get worse, I'd go for:

2007: 9
2008: 5
2009: 4
2010: 6
2011: 7
2012: 8
2013: 2
2014: 4
2015: 6

I really don't get any of this at all.  The only thing that matters is PIOMAS sea ice volume difference from max to min for the year.  In that case then 2011 was the worse (I think) and 2014 was the best (I am sure)  Now I know you all are saying well, what about ice export? 

yes, prevalent wind patterns really matter as well.  But really, do they matter that much?  what if the export ratio is simply correlated to the larger pressure/temp scale that you are working with already?  It seems that similar circulation patterns (as well as inflows from rivers) are all working from the same notes wrt larger pattern shifts.

in the last 7 days there has been (roughly) 20,000 km^2 sea ice either melting out at or passing through the Fram.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on April 28, 2016, 05:48:24 PM
From August of last year

http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/9/4205/2015/tcd-9-4205-2015-print.pdf (http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/9/4205/2015/tcd-9-4205-2015-print.pdf)

Fram Strait spring ice export and
September Arctic sea ice
M. H. Halvorsen1
, L. H. Smedsrud1,2,3
, R. Zhang4
, and K. Kloster5

The Arctic Basin exports ∼ 10 % of the sea ice area southwards annually through Fram
Strait. A larger than normal export decreases the remaining mean thickness and ice
area. A new updated timeseries from 1979–2013 of Fram Strait sea ice area export
shows an overall increase until today, and that more than 1 million km2
5 has been exported
annually in recent years. The new timeseries has been constructed from high
resolution radar satellite imagery of sea ice drift across 79◦ N from 2004–2013, regressed
on the observed cross-strait surface pressure difference, and shows an increasing
trend of 7 % per decade.
The trend is caused by higher southward ice drift
10 speeds due to stronger southward geostrophic winds, largely explained by increasing
surface pressure on Greenland.
Spring and summer area export increases more
(∼ 14 % per decade) than in autumn and winter, and these export anomalies have
a large influence on the following September mean ice extent.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 28, 2016, 06:05:25 PM
I really don't get any of this at all.  The only thing that matters is PIOMAS sea ice volume difference from max to min for the year.  In that case then 2011 was the worse (I think) and 2014 was the best (I am sure)  Now I know you all are saying well, what about ice export?

I agree with you that volume/thickness is the most important metric long-term. As it is, people look at extent/area when discussing the minimum, because that's what we can see when taking the satellite view.

The grades I gave are for the combination of temp and SLP. You could even subtract 1 from all the years except 2007. Of course, thickness/volume determines the final outcome. But weather is still important.

As for PIOMAS (modelled) max-min, 2010 and 2012 saw the largest total volume loss (19.693 and 19.692 respectively, 2011 had the lowest max), followed by 2015 (18.718 km3). 2014 indeed had the lowest loss, 2006 was lower still.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 28, 2016, 06:57:10 PM
Ok done with the Bering Strait, I hope.

you certainly allow that i keep an eye on the matter :-)

- i made 2 main statements, muddy rough roads within few days and snow mostly gone on those hills to the left.
. here are images from the last 3 days and i think that even if "a few days" can be laid out as 3, 4 or some more .  . days, BS is more off than my guess i'm sure. i'll be back in 2 or 3 days when the road will be snowfree mud,
. as to the hills, i mentioned some sunshine needed, perhaps it goes even without but at least i believe in my
. own boring BS that 1 or 2 days of sunshine with all those brown spots will do the job like in illulisat on the last
. pic where one week ago there was as similar or even more snow cover.

since this about discussing outcomes and there is a lot of prediction throughout many posts here, i still don't understand which part of my post triggered that "interesting" reply? i think not that many people really care and think about how to turn things around, hence i believe we should encourage and support each other and not bash.

sorry for the bore but for me it's exiting LOL

p1 = kimmirut 2 days ago
p2 = kimmirut yesterday
p3 = kimmirut today ( has been removed and replaced with a better image one post later )
p4 = Ilulissat webcam

one can watch the videos here: https://www.lookr.com/lookout/1198520951-Kimmirut#action-play-month (https://www.lookr.com/lookout/1198520951-Kimmirut#action-play-month)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 28, 2016, 07:01:57 PM
a better pic for today, the other one did not illustrate the situation too well  8)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 28, 2016, 07:18:39 PM
Ok done with the Bering Strait, I hope.

you certainly allow that i keep an eye on the matter [...]

I hope I didn't ruffle anyone's feathers with my answers because they were completely friendly and well intentioned, if not I am sorry.
As for my prediction, yes I was off evidently.

@ A-team how can HYCOM catch such small river discharge? Just wondering.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: cesium62 on April 28, 2016, 07:38:41 PM
So , post 2007 how many 'good' summers has the Arctic basin seen. Now I'm using 'good' in the way I would for my part of the UK and do not mean "good for holding onto as much ice as possible" good.

I'd consider 5 to be average, and rate them:

2007: 10
2008: 7
2009: 4
2010: 7
2011: 8
2012: 9
2013: 2
2014: 4
2015: 6

Chris Reynolds showed (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,499.0.html) that the pattern from 2007 to 2012 was unusual for the time period since 1980, so it is reasonable to score most of these years as above average melt years. 

The question is why did we get this pattern?  Was it some natural variation that is now over, or perhaps may reoccur in 2 or 5 or 50 years time?  Or is it somehow triggered by AGW, and the lack of this pattern since 2013 is a natural variation.  Which may now be over as the current pattern looks a bit like the 2007-2012 pattern.

The current run of above average temperatures shown in Andrew Slater's page (http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/) is quite remarkable in its persistence.  I cannot find anything like it going back into recent years.  And consider that a good part of December was below average, and Oct to Nov was only a little above average and in my opinion would count as being 'cool' when compared to recent years.
If  2007  was a 10 we are going to have to change the scale this year.  Based on esrl-noaa data 2007 rated between 11 - 18th on the Air and SST temperatures for the Arctic and for 80N+ from January to March.  It  was however closer to the second place year, on all four measures, than 2016 the current record holder. Thats why we are seeing the melt season off to a flying start and with an El Nino in the air nothing is likely to hold the temperature back. 

In the summer 2007 rated third behind 2012 and 2011, with  2015 and 2010 rounding up the top 5. In the May 2007 like 2015 failed to make it to the 20 warmest. 

So we can go a whole lot higher than a 10.

The original poster asked about Balmy Summers in the Arctic Basin.  But the question you raise as to which metric one should look at to judge a Balmy summer is interesting.  Slater (I presume) writes (http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/about_tair.html):
"
925hPa temperature was chosen as it is less influenced by the melting surface in the summer months than 2m temperature (and should be more influenced by data assimilation). Thus 925hPa Tair is more illustrative of heat in the Arctic that might impact sea ice; for example, compare the years 1996 and 2007 using the both 925hPa Tair and the +80N 2m Temperature. (Note that radiation is still the biggest player with respect to ice melt forced by the atmosphere.)
"
I wonder if NOAA has a [summer] radiation metric?

So I think calling 2007 a "10" on the narrow question of Summer throughout the Arctic Basin is not unreasonable.

For the more on-topic question of how 2016 is shaping up...  Yeah the CAB looks in poor shape and the broader Arctic ocean is looking toasty.

Do you have a link to the SST graphs?  I'm not seeing those on Slater's site.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 28, 2016, 07:45:25 PM
I hope I didn't ruffle anyone's feathers with my answers because they were completely friendly and well intentioned, if not I am sorry.

ok, peace, perhaps it's a simple language barrier, in my region BS is close to AH, if i misunderstood that, mea culpa.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: cesium62 on April 28, 2016, 08:34:17 PM
I really don't get any of this at all.  The only thing that matters is PIOMAS sea ice volume difference from max to min for the year.  In that case then 2011 was the worse (I think) and 2014 was the best (I am sure)  Now I know you all are saying well, what about ice export?

I agree with you that volume/thickness is the most important metric long-term. As it is, people look at extent/area when discussing the minimum, because that's what we can see when taking the satellite view.

The grades I gave are for the combination of temp and SLP. You could even subtract 1 from all the years except 2007. Of course, thickness/volume determines the final outcome. But weather is still important.

As for PIOMAS (modelled) max-min, 2010 and 2012 saw the largest total volume loss (19.693 and 19.692 respectively, 2011 had the lowest max), followed by 2015 (18.718 km3). 2014 indeed had the lowest loss, 2006 was lower still.

Looking at the weather provides additional context.  On the one hand, we can see that "balmy" years occur every three or four years and 2015 wasn't all that "balmy".  Also, 2007 was "balmy" but didn't have as much affect on volume as 2012 simply because the ice was thicker back then.  Thicker ice is harder to push south, harder to export through the Fram, etc. 

"balmy" weather is frequent, and as the years pass, "balmy" weather has a greater effect on the ice.  2007 had a much greater effect than 1999.  2012 had a much greater effect than 2007.   2015 had an effect on the ice even though it wasn't all that balmy.

Maybe not this year, maybe not next, but we will soon get another "2007" which will devastate a much weaker ice pack.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: 6roucho on April 28, 2016, 08:54:45 PM
The balmy winter seems to have had a greater effect than a balmy summer might, by establishing the conditions for both snow melt and the current grinding dynamic. Do we have an equivalent top list for warm winters? 2016 would undoubtedly dominate it.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 28, 2016, 08:55:17 PM
Here you go, from NSIDC summarizing of melt season 2015, courtesy National Snow and Ice Data Center. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/1999/10/airtemp.png (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/1999/10/airtemp.png)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fnsidc.org%2Farcticseaicenews%2Ffiles%2F1999%2F10%2Fairtemp.png&hash=6848a7363b07587cce545e112dc8c178)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 28, 2016, 09:13:26 PM
a better pic for today, the other one did not illustrate the situation too well  8)
Land-side albedo dropping like a stone, and I think what looks like melt ponding started on the far side of the channel.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 28, 2016, 09:22:49 PM
Here you go, from NSIDC summarizing of melt season 2015, courtesy National Snow and Ice Data Center. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/1999/10/airtemp.png (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/1999/10/airtemp.png)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fnsidc.org%2Farcticseaicenews%2Ffiles%2F1999%2F10%2Fairtemp.png&hash=6848a7363b07587cce545e112dc8c178)
Great find, LMV!

There seems some consistency across 2007, 11 & 12  in as much as they tend to be clustered in the top third of the graph.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: oren on April 28, 2016, 09:24:24 PM
a better pic for today, the other one did not illustrate the situation too well  8)

The change over two days is impressive.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Siffy on April 28, 2016, 09:45:52 PM
 :o

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kimmirutweather.com%2Fwebcam.jpg&hash=258d28636277de27e4ecadcb151514ea)

Is that melt ponding visible on the far left of the image?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 28, 2016, 10:23:16 PM
i'm not that privy with the exact terms but i've seen them and it looks like what i'd call "wet snow" spots in laymen's terms.

This is probably where "ponds" would eventually result from. They're dark spots but definitely not looking like liquid water yet.

Since it's getting slightly cooler and the weather is and has been a bit on the cloudy side i think that the most impressive parts of the current development as far as speed is concerned comes to an end, except if we were in for bright and sunny day at temps above freezing.

BTW the reason why that pics caught my attention is that it was one of the later places to melt out last summer, i think it was in august only.

anyways, beside all the records and all the stuff what is the most impressive thing this year is that it's so persistent, no big ups and downs, no huge areas with exceptions on the other end of the scale, the heat
starts ruling more or less across the board. the only relative small exception would be ESS which IMO will melt out anyways, hence no real refuge for the ice, exactly like hudson bay last year, way too late but couldn't keep it.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on April 28, 2016, 10:49:55 PM
The first animation shows that the wind power dropping by 2/3 at the indicated spot over the next 4 days to 02 May 16 and the center of rotation becoming increasingly misaligned with that of the ice gyre. If so, this will bring a reduction of fracturing and a slowing of rotation of the ice.

The second animation looks at the feasibility of co-registration of WorldView satellite images with a favorable choice of nullschool projection, S for 'stereographic'. This is a rare case where this works out without a round-trip to gdal. The frames show wind power, the ice as seen from Aqua (an earlier April date), side-by-side, and a transparency overlay.

This product, daily for the last month, would serve the gateway to physical understanding of Beaufort Gyre response to wind forcing. The most intense day in April was on the 14th, 3d image, with counter-rotating cells.

It turns out that the weird wind power palette in nullschool can be made into a quantitative grayscale by partitioning into the L.a.b color space; this allows wind power statistics over a region to be animated over a contoured map and the first moment arm about the center to be determined from pixel coord differences, 4th image.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: bbr2314 on April 28, 2016, 11:07:09 PM
It should be noted that Hudson Bay's yearly melt out should not necessarily be taken for granted. Last year saw a decent-sized chunk of ice persist into September before partially disintegrating, and the ensuing quick reformation in Foxe Basin and northern Hudson Bay was pretty much unprecedented in the recent satellite record as to timing (earliness, that is).

I think this is partially due to the newly-permanent polar low over Foxe Basin vicinity, but is aided by Greenland & surrounding islands' meltwater, which floods through from the N.

One of the implicit observations of Hansen's work (IMO) is that there could actually be glaciation of places like Quebec/Scotland if the anomalies he posted are realized. Realistically they would result in year-round winter-ish weather, which we already seem to be experiencing in these regions.

In any case, while the Hudson Bay pack will be subject to occasional 0C+ weather over next 10 days, it looks to largely remain below freezing with ample opportunities for snowfall. If recent years are any guide it will persist healthily into late June/early July before declining in August. But with the polar low increasingly stuck over Foxe Basin, perhaps this could be the first year where a more substantial amount makes it through the summer.

While it may be summer soon down here, it is still snowing heavily up across much of Canada with Quebec at the heart of the +depth anomalies.

The next question to ask is: does this exacerbate Beaufort warming even more? If HB/Foxe Basin serves as an "albedo anchor" for our cold vortex, do warmer temps in Beaufort and the ensuing albedo feedback from open waters up N translate into cold lows centered on multi-yr ice and snow at lower latitudes?

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tropicaltidbits.com%2Fanalysis%2Fmodels%2Fgem%2F2016042812%2Fgem_asnow_namer_40.png&hash=59eeec56af19396e5366657bffb65f33)

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: DrTskoul on April 28, 2016, 11:24:40 PM
:o

Is that melt ponding visible on the far left of the image?

Yes
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: DavidR on April 29, 2016, 12:12:17 AM
Do you have a link to the SST graphs?  I'm not seeing those on Slater's site.
You can get the monthly data from here:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl)

There are lots of metrics to chose from and the ones I  am using are SST and Air Temperature at the surface.  You  can also choose Air Temp at 925mb as Slater does. Its the only site I am aware of that  gives monthly comparisons on a wide range of factors within few days of the end of the month.

It  shows 2007 as the hottest summer in AT and third hottest  in SST up until that time.
2012 and 2011 now ahead in AT. Most of this decade (ex 2104) has been hotter for SST's.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 29, 2016, 12:13:48 AM

Rox was asking about the location of the main gauging station on the Mackenzie River. It is located at the confluence with the Tsiigèhnjik or Arctic Red River about 10 km upstream of the current delta  The main spike in flow occurs early in May as can be seen on the links to data and break-up video provided by Jim H above.

The Liard River is visibly turning liquid (http://go.nasa.gov/1WtIcuI), and hence the Mackenzie flow way upstream at Fort Simpson is starting to build:

http://wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/report/report_e.html?mode=Graph&type=realTime&stn=10GC001&dataType=Real-Time&startDate=2016-04-01&endDate=2016-04-28&prm1=46&y1Max=&y1Min=&prm2=47&y2Max=&y2Min= (http://wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/report/report_e.html?mode=Graph&type=realTime&stn=10GC001&dataType=Real-Time&startDate=2016-04-01&endDate=2016-04-28&prm1=46&y1Max=&y1Min=&prm2=47&y2Max=&y2Min=)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 29, 2016, 12:43:21 AM
It should be noted that Hudson Bay's yearly melt out should not necessarily be taken for granted.

i have to agree, matter of factly there were indeed residues. BTW this kind of topic as to definitions of ice-free
we shall face once the CAB will be "ice-free" some will declare it ice free and others will point to the residues.

i tend to agree with your point of view because free is free and not "somehow" free LOL

hence my post was a bit exagerated to make a point, same can indeed happen to ESS where there can be fast-ice residues in the bays and fjords (sorry if there are no fjords haha... ) but i think it's obvious what i want to say.

thanks for pulling in the reigns for me a bit, horses went through a bit as it seems. ;)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on April 29, 2016, 01:00:35 AM
WorldView appears to be broken, via someone trying to "Improve" it.

Anyone on the forum have any contacts with the group that runs that page?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 29, 2016, 01:29:59 AM
Been searching around, google "HYCOM river"; apparently the model already includes historical mean discharge rates of +1000 rivers around the world by default, but it allows the user enter monthly data and possibly, if available, daily data (for instance U.S. rivers). This inflow is modeled, into the ocean boundary, at the river mouth location, and can be simulated as very heavy rain too. Since the Mackenzie river has very small but non-zero discharge rate, both in historical and current data (and even for winter), hence the tiny fresh water signal shown at the mouth location. Whether this is accurate or even relevant, I know not. Surely in less than a month it will be.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: 6roucho on April 29, 2016, 04:09:34 AM
It should be noted that Hudson Bay's yearly melt out should not necessarily be taken for granted.

i have to agree, matter of factly there were indeed residues. BTW this kind of topic as to definitions of ice-free
we shall face once the CAB will be "ice-free" some will declare it ice free and others will point to the residues.

i tend to agree with your point of view because free is free and not "somehow" free LOL

hence my post was a bit exagerated to make a point, same can indeed happen to ESS where there can be fast-ice residues in the bays and fjords (sorry if there are no fjords haha... ) but i think it's obvious what i want to say.

thanks for pulling in the reigns for me a bit, horses went through a bit as it seems. ;)

The usual definition of an ice-free Arctic is < 1m sq km of ice. Hopefully it won't be completely devoid of ice, even in summer, for quite some time yet, since that would signify a drastically changed climate.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 29, 2016, 04:58:58 AM
2007 had an epic Ridge/dipole almost all summer.


Purely insane and insane low level temps in June.

A repeat of that would be crazy.

Ice free to the pole for sure.

Wet dream

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FlZHg5BC.jpg&hash=112c548f698bcba0e52f6bd8ad4ba491)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FcpJvTSh.jpg&hash=5e1d8b3d79eebf001ae44e602904b8e9)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 29, 2016, 05:14:19 AM
May of 2011 had an epic warm intrusion from the 15th on.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F6xrcvtb.jpg&hash=025945e76584f462c4eb2594c634a4dd)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F4os74aJ.jpg&hash=ca5e85460aa02d088da853e945628e25)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Michael Hauber on April 29, 2016, 05:47:26 AM
The record for poorest freezing season (freezing day anomalies by Slater) used to be held by 2006.  This was then broken in 2013.  Both poor melt years.  Smashing this record in 2016 would seem no guarantee of a good melt season.  We've had 4 months of very warm conditions with almost no let up.  Presumably this will change and sometime between now and September we'll see a period of cool cloudy conditions that will slow things down.  If we don't we'd be looking at weather as extreme as 2007 but with a higher baseline of global warming.  And with a significantly weaker ice pack - there was a lot of 5+ year ice prior to 2007.  Squash the pack up against Greenland a good bit further, and blow all the way through the tongue of ice that in 2007 extended along the Atlantic towards Laptvev/Kara border.  Basically almost ice free.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 29, 2016, 08:55:57 AM
...
I agree with you that volume/thickness is the most important metric long-term. As it is, people look at extent/area when discussing the minimum, because that's what we can see when taking the satellite view.
...
While this is certainly so, there is another and more important reason to look at area (specifically) when discussing both minimum and amounts during summertime: that is, however thin (within reason - 0.1mm doesn't count! :D), if ice is present, then it changes/introduces/prevents important prysical processes between the ocean and the athmosphere, such as evaporation, sunlight absorbtion/reflection, mixing gases into and out of surface layer (including possibility for methane to freely go out of shallow waters into the athmosphere before being much consumed in the ocean by microorganisms and inorganic chemistry, if present in significant amounts, - which affects local greenhouse effect), plant and marine life (which by itself can have significant push on local climate, circa Gaia theory), near-surface temperature profile, etc etc.

IMHO.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 29, 2016, 09:11:45 AM
According to DMI, the sea ice volume is now just slightly below 2012 for the date of April 28. Check out: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/images/FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20160428.png (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/images/FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20160428.png)

Latest operational ECMWF 00z run hints that the big Arctic high pressure system will start to break down sometime next week and open up for more cloudy and perhaps cyclonic weather. The run may be an outlier but I haven't seen the ensemble yet. Interesting to see if the upcoming runs will keep this scenario or not. Might be this years "Saved by the bell" for the Arctic basin, or not. We'll see!

Best, LMV
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 29, 2016, 09:12:45 AM
...
The usual definition of an ice-free Arctic is < 1m sq km of ice. Hopefully it won't be completely devoid of ice, even in summer, for quite some time yet, since that would signify a drastically changed climate.
It will be completely devoid of ice (during late summer, and later more of a summer), - most likely, few years after it first gets under 1M km2 minimum. But not to worry! That is, the climate change will be drastic in either case, you see. Because <1M km2 minimum does not appear out of thin air in a single night; no. To get it, you need the Arctic to have massively less than normal ice volume and area (and extent as well) for most (more like, all) of a summer. Which by itself alters climate drastically, since "massively less than normal area" tends to happen in a specific way: namely, "further from pole" parts of the Arctic sea ice cap - disappear first. Sadly, those are exactly places which get high (over 30° above horizon at noon) Sun for quite a while during summer time, producing that exactly "drastic" effect on climate because of so much changed albedo (no reflective ice on the surface = dark and wavy water surface, so massively lower albedo). Lots of evaporation going on for much of a summer where normally was very little, - tends to wreak havoc on "normal" climate, switching it to a completely new state.

And then if to talk about slightly further perspective, there are those huge methane clathrate deposits near melting point, sitting within shallow Arctic shelves, until recently protected by exactly those "near 80° latitude and to the south of it" summer ice fields, ones which disappear before our eyes these days during summer time. With all the mighty feedbacks associated due to methane being so potent greenhouse gas, that sort of methane release will drastically change climate world-wide, not just Arctic, given enough time - for more details see, for example, rather famous Shakhova et al, in particular their point about expected effects of 50Gt methane release (which is just very small fraction of the total amount locked even in ESAS alone). Estimates vary, of course, for when it'll become practical (and possibly, terminal) issue for "business as usual", however i didn't hear any serious scientist denying the "eventual" global methane release event if the Arctic goes largely ice-free summers (happened before during at least one of previous Great Extinctions, lots of specialists are quite sure was the primary cause of it).

I'd love not to talk about effects of Arctic sea ice melt long-term, but then, if noone ever does, our kind (i mean - humans) will definitely be screwed much more than otherwise possible. Plus, i think it's good to put all the technical details and amazing data presented in this topic into some little "why exactly we some of us are here?" perspective, sometimes. Right?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 29, 2016, 09:13:37 AM
Here is the record of the past 24 hours weather from Inuvik, on the eastern channel of the Mackenzie Delta:

https://weather.gc.ca/past_conditions/index_e.html?station=yev

High: 7.2 °C

Here is today's weather forecast for Tuktoyaktuk, on the shore of the eastern Beaufort Sea:

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nt-20_metric_e.html

High: 4.0 °C
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 29, 2016, 09:49:35 AM
The east coast of Svalbard, including the Austfonna glacier (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1325.msg57094.html#msg57094). The first image from the recently launched Sentinel 1B satellite:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/svalbard-sea-ice-graphs/#Images (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/svalbard-sea-ice-graphs/#Images)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 29, 2016, 10:02:28 AM
Here you go, from NSIDC summarizing of melt season 2015, courtesy National Snow and Ice Data Center. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/1999/10/airtemp.png (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/1999/10/airtemp.png)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fnsidc.org%2Farcticseaicenews%2Ffiles%2F1999%2F10%2Fairtemp.png&hash=6848a7363b07587cce545e112dc8c178)
Was it sarcasm? If so, disregard the following... /blush

Ain't summarizing no melt season, this thing, in any significant part to talk of. It's about air temperatures, and this is why it does not relate any ice melt season to any other melt season any reliably, except it would - somewhat, - for any melt seasons which have very close or same sea ice extent and area for every week (at least; or better every day) of the whole season. But we don't have any such seasons on record, do we.

Why? Because as most people here know very well, amount and speed of melt of Arctic sea ice depends on several major variables, air temperatures being only one of them; not even the main of them. Years of talk about winds, pressure, water currents, salinity, albedo, waviness/storms, temperature profiles, thickness, "quality" of ice and other things, - everyone who have been here for any long can tell: extremely very different melt seasons can be while air temperature would remain very much the same. Especially when those melt seasons have massively different ice cover at any given date.

Which those graphs themselves clearly confirm: we know early 80s' melt seasons were different from 2010s' seasons in the "less and slower melt" way generally, yet we see many of them 80s' and 2010s' melt seasons happened with rather similar air temperatures. Take for example '79 and '14; the latter was "colder air" for all 4 months presented except August, and so what - 2014 melt season had less melt than '79? Gee. It hadn't. Checked CT interactive just to be sure - yep, 2014 melt season had significantly larger area lost during it, and over way shorter time frame. So those graphs defeats their own "purpose" (of being any indication of "a melt season") with their own data. Funny.

And then look at '13! Cold (relatively to most other years on these graphs) air for all 4 months presented for '13. Should be way slower melt than most other years, then? Way slower than most 80's? It just doesn't work that way, there is no correlation to speak of...

And i believe, if we take a glass with some ice cubes, have it at room temperature, and put a lid on it, - the air under the lid will be remain nearly 0°C both when ice cubes start to melt, and when ice cubes are nearly gone. Courtesy of specific heat of melt, - as long as there is small yet significant amount of solid ice at the surface, incoming heat (which goes in from the room through the glass' walls) is spent to melt the ice 1st, not to warm up air and surface water.

P.S. I suspect they think something like "oh look, August 2015 had real cool air in Arctic, that's why the melt in August was damn slow". Wrong. It was damn slow melt because of whole complex of causes, and cold air temperatures IMHO was more a consequence than a cause, whole process considered... Air temperature is not proper thing to be any indicator here, as demonstrated just above with '79 vs '14 and '13 example.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on April 29, 2016, 10:30:45 AM
In other climate forums I frequent you can guarantee that some die hard Denier will pop up the DMI 80N graph to show just what a 'cold ' summer the Arctic has seen ( avoiding all other measures of the summer there) as they know that the temps over the ice will always hover around Zero whilst ice remains. Some day not to far off we will see significant ice loss throughout the 80N ice and that red line will do what it does over the rest of the year and spike well above the 'average'. Oh! how I am ready for that time!!! ( LOL) ;)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: werther on April 29, 2016, 10:31:38 AM
Next few days could be interesting over the Beaufort region. Several of us have pointed at the forecast melt temps. On top of that, the jet stream produces a large loop reaching over the Beaufort and Banks Island:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2F250Mb%2520Jet%2520GFS%2520T%2520plus%2520120h%2520for%252003052016_zpshvnf2ifb.jpg&hash=66254e07869964a90a26b92a9bbba17a)

On its’ track, a small Low detaches from the Aleutian giant depression and enters the high Arctic. Thus forcing an end to the month long Beaufort Gyre-high.  Around 4 May it might even produce a day long windforce Bft 7 from the S-SE over Amundsen Gulf and further up NW.

Look for clearance and enlargement of the polynia and a very early melt/opening on the Mackenzie Delta.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Adam Ash on April 29, 2016, 12:53:37 PM
I wonder, from my position of great ignorance of such things, whether the changes in temperature and cyclonic activity in the polar regions are the precursors of the intense energy=gradient driven storms Hansen et al refer to in their recent paper.

Someone here a while back mentioned that a '2012 Event' is not an upper bound, but merely a sample of what is to come.

Similarly are not the RRR and the general push of warm air towards the North Pole a small sample of Hanson's storms?  And, considering the 50-tonne boulders those storms kicked up in the Caribbean 'last time around', this years storms and circulation are not an upper bound either - they just fluffing the feathers of the very worried canary in the coal mine.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Carex on April 29, 2016, 01:22:09 PM
Been searching around, google "HYCOM river"; apparently the model already includes historical mean discharge rates of +1000 rivers around the world by default, but it allows the user enter monthly data and possibly, if available, daily data (for instance U.S. rivers). This inflow is modeled, into the ocean boundary, at the river mouth location, and can be simulated as very heavy rain too. Since the Mackenzie river has very small but non-zero discharge rate, both in historical and current data (and even for winter), hence the tiny fresh water signal shown at the mouth location. Whether this is accurate or even relevant, I know not. Surely in less than a month it will be.



Rivers Ob and Yenis now have long reaches of open water that should soon be reaching the Kara.  The Lena is open just below L. Baikal but has a long cold slide to the delta.  The Mackenzie is still tight from Lake Athabaska north but should begin to open this coming week if the forecast is at all accurate.  The Red River of the North is also still solid and running through a snow covered landscape.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on April 29, 2016, 01:47:03 PM
Quote
Next few days could be interesting over the Beaufort region.
Here are the wave heights along the Alaskan coast off the Mackenzie River delta and at a second site where they reach maximal height, according to WaveWatch III  +NCEP + NWS as visualized at nullschool for the 25 April to 03 May time frame. On the 27th of April the largest waves reached 1.96 m at 06:00 UTC which is not at all conducive to ice formation or persistence.

The weather will be making a definite change in pattern by May 4th. The Beaufort Gyre will experience fairly strong winds pushing it latitudinally to the west over the next six days, rather than torquing it in the Banks Island/Mackenzie delta area.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Buddy on April 29, 2016, 01:53:56 PM
If you go to the following link....and look at the SECOND SET of graphs....you'll see a graphic of the Arctic in 1980 and 2012.

Look at the "fat tail" that hangs over in the Beaufort Sea.  I think that fat tail could be history this year.  As well.....some portion of ice on the CAB side (the "north pole side) of the ice hugging the Canadian Archipelago will get chewed away.

You can also see that the McKenzie River Delta along the northern Canadian coast...a few hundred miles EAST of the Alaska/Canada border (on the map....it is where the coast turns from going towards the southeast...and turns up to the northeast).  Conditions of the MacKenzie will help chew away that fat tail of ice from 2012.

http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/arctic-sea-ice-volume-extent-charts_30.html (http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/arctic-sea-ice-volume-extent-charts_30.html)

You can also see....by looking at the FIRST SET of graphs of early April ice in 2012, 2015, and 2016....that the ice is much thinner now.....and is "set up" to go, should the right conditions prevail.

While 2 million 2k sounds "crazy" and "undoable"....it is "possible" (not LIKELY...not PROBABLE.....but DOABLE).

If you take out that "fat tail" hanging out in the Beaufort....and take a good chunk of the northernmost shore of the ice that is in the CAB (north pole) side......you've taken away 40% of the ice that was there at the END of the 2012 season (and that was 3.14 million 2k).  40% off of 3.14 mill takes you down to 2 million 2k.  Again...not LIKELY....but doable (10% - 15% chance).

Also....if you look further down the page in the SAME LINK...to the 14th GRAPHIC....you'll find the "DMI TEMPS ABOVE 80 LATITUDE".  In 2012....the DMI had crossed BELOW the "normal average" temperature line (green line) from day 115 through about day 140.  This year...we're STILL ABOVE that "normal line" (warmer) and we're past day 120.  So conditions are warmer now than they were in 2012.

All in all....my eyes will be on the Beaufort and the CAB...   

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Buddy on April 29, 2016, 05:14:56 PM
Possible/likely impacts of significant Arctic melt...as well as possible significant Greenland melt this year:

1)  Political impacts on the US elections.  A significant melt WILL likely impact the US elections this summer and fall.  The nominating conventions are July 18-21 for Republicans...and the week AFTER for Democrats.  The election itself....is in early November.  So any "significant events" in the Arctic and Greenland this summer WILL have an impact on AT LEAST the elections....if not the nominating conventions.

2)  Equity markets:  This is an interesting one.  It will be interesting to see how this summer plays out from a "physics" point of view....and how Wall Street views that.  Solar stocks after "bottoming out" in mid 2012....had a nice run up until about April of 2015.  Since then they have "pulled back" on lower volume over the last year, and I suspect they will continue to "base and repair" until they start their NEXT RISE sometime this late spring or summer.  I suspect that HARD COMMODITES (ie lithium, copper, iron ore, etc) already "bottomed" this winter in January and February....and have a "nice life" ahead of them as the world SLOWLY comes to grips that we will have to build out a LOT OF INFRASTURE to change energy systems.  It will also become apparent in coming years (next 3 years) that we may have a LOT of infrastructure building to do in the not too distant future because of rising tides.  It takes a LONG TIME to move a city..... :-\

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on April 29, 2016, 05:28:27 PM
It will also become apparent in coming years (next 3 years) that we may have a LOT of infrastructure building to do in the not too distant future because of rising tides.  It takes a LONG TIME to move a city..... :-\

How much sea level rise do you expect in next 3 years to cause such a reaction?

If really high above 20mm then perhaps society may realise? 7mm for just one year and it would be dismissed as probably exceptional due to El Nino or something like that. Even 20mm over 3 years might still be viewed that way. Even if this could get society reacting, is it likely to be this much so soon?

If high 12-19mm, do you really expect significant reaction?

If normal 6mm-11mm, well it is normal so will society carry on with thinking maybe 1m from 2000 to 2100?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Buddy on April 29, 2016, 05:47:51 PM
Quote
How much sea level rise do you expect in next 3 years to cause such a reaction?

It's NOT the amount of sea level rise in the next 3 years (that is VERY MINIMAL).....its the REALIZATION that in FUTURE DECADES WE HAVE NO CHOICE.  THAT...is what the markets will understand.  And they will "get" just how much it will take.

Building a new energy infrastructure DOES NOT HAPPEN OVERNIGHT.  Markets will understand that.  And energy infrastructure will be the FIRST thing that the markets will impact.  The "hope" will be, of course, that we can build enough energy infrastructure QUICKLY ENOUGH OVER THE NEXT 2 DECADES OR SO....that we don't HAVE TO MOVE CITIES.  I don't know if that can....or can not be done now.  We'll get a better idea over the coming 10 years.  But there is still a MASSIVE AMOUNT of building JUST TO CHANGE THE ENERGY INFRASTURE.  MASSIVE.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 29, 2016, 05:57:44 PM
Buddy, there's an entire Category (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=collapse;c=1;sa=collapse;f2d3c6a6=3005e3e4b577ffa15cf804c4150feb80#c1) to make your texts on-topic. Cheers.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Buddy on April 29, 2016, 06:03:34 PM
My bad....apologies to all.  Neven....maybe you can move those comments.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on April 29, 2016, 06:18:54 PM
No problem, I do it too sometimes. Looking at how things are progressing right now, it's only natural to look ahead at what it may potentially mean for all kinds of things.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on April 29, 2016, 06:59:57 PM
The southward movement at the Fram strait has slowed over the last couple of days, which fits the Hycom prediction. Hycom http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arc_list_arcticicespddrf.html (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arc_list_arcticicespddrf.html)further predicts slowdown of movement in the whole arctic. Is that just an older weather prediction?
dates shown are 29.4. and 2.5.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: plinius on April 29, 2016, 08:07:35 PM
It may not be apparent from the area graph, but there is obviously some refreezing taking place in the Beaufort Sea:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#Beaufort (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#Beaufort)

An intriguing optical illusion too, to my ageing eyes at least!

Actually, those white lines are very intruiging. Checked the past days, and it seems like typically one (or sometimes none) line is added per day - stronger re-freeze at night creating some coastal features to the ice floes?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 29, 2016, 08:17:58 PM
It may not be apparent from the area graph, but there is obviously some refreezing taking place in the Beaufort Sea:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#Beaufort (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#Beaufort)

An intriguing optical illusion too, to my ageing eyes at least!

Actually, those white lines are very intruiging. Checked the past days, and it seems like typically one (or sometimes none) line is added per day - stronger re-freeze at night creating some coastal features to the ice floes?

@Jim Hunt are you sure? night temps in the areas with open water were around -4/-5C and even though my knowledge is limited that would not be cold enough for proper re-freezing. i was reading it takes to be around -10C for freezing. ready to learn otherwise though

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on April 29, 2016, 09:16:18 PM
Obuoy14 is not near the area discussed but the pattern may apply. Obuoy13 http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy13/weather (http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy13/weather) also has that cycle even without the diurnal temperature variation. Could the presence of open water even  strengthen the cycle.
There is a clear 24 hour oscillation in wind speed. Since the ice forms at first in loose platelets its movement may well be the cause of these daily "growth rings".
Temperatures at Barrow are higher than between these still cold ice floes and I have doubts that the -10 deg which are often quoted are really such an absolute limit.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 29, 2016, 10:06:07 PM
Obuoy14 is not near the area discussed but the pattern may apply. Obuoy13 http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy13/weather (http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy13/weather) also has that cycle even without the diurnal temperature variation. Could the presence of open water even  strengthen the cycle.
There is a clear 24 hour oscillation in wind speed. Since the ice forms at first in loose platelets its movement may well be the cause of these daily "growth rings".
Temperatures at Barrow are higher than between these still cold ice floes and I have doubts that the -10 deg which are often quoted are really such an absolute limit.

ok, didn't see that the post referred to buoy 14 or 13, the pic was showing quite some open water and distorted ice cover which is close to the coastline mostly and the temps on that coast are very similar from McKenzie delta over to Barrow. however perhaps i just got that wrong and good to know that those -10C limit is not as absolute as one can get the impression while reading through forums and blogs, thanks for clarification.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on April 29, 2016, 10:23:38 PM
The 24 days in April animated below show the exit of Amundsen Gulf at Banks Island, a nearby and sometimes synergistic partner of the Mackenzie freshwater injector. As the Amundsen melts out, the wind fetch becomes longer, conspiring with prevailing wind direction and consistently high speed to make larger waves in the Beaufort, which is unfavorable for re-freezing, floe persistence, avoidance of turbulently mixed warm water, and retention rather than export to the floe graveyard of the Chukchi.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Peter Ellis on April 29, 2016, 10:33:07 PM
http://go.nasa.gov/1Tk5Qoi (http://go.nasa.gov/1Tk5Qoi)

If you look in the open leads here and scroll back and forward a few days, you can watch new ice being formed each day, and count each night's growth as a separate band.  It looks to me as though refreezing stopped on the 26th or 27th is some of the leads, but is ongoing in others.  Someone better than I can probably make the animation to prove it (he said, hopefully).
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on April 29, 2016, 11:14:45 PM
Quote
refreezing stopped on the 26th or 27th is some of the leads, but is ongoing in others.
I'm not in the habit of constructing radiatiave transfer functions that aren't fit for purpose, see #488 4th animation. There are however legitimate ice interpretive issues in scenes where individual pixels are at best 250 m on a side, with thin clouds and variable illumination. It is not enough to 'see' or 'intuit' refreezing, there has to be an evidentiary rationale. For that reason, the vastly improved true color 10 m Sentinel 2A (625-fold areal improvement over Aqua Modis) as in #644 gives some guidance when applied to the same scenes. However leads can be in a whole lot of different states other than refrozen/not refrozen binary classification bins.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 30, 2016, 12:12:31 AM
as predicted those wet snow spots today with a bit of sunshine turned into genuine melt ponds, clearly distinguishable by the reflections of liquid water as compared to the mate wet snow from yesterday and the roads indeed became close to snow free muddy rough roads.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: johnm33 on April 30, 2016, 12:49:38 AM
Magnamentis "ok, didn't see that the post referred to buoy 14 or 13, the pic was showing quite some open water and distorted ice cover which is close to the coastline mostly and the temps on that coast are very similar from McKenzie delta over to Barrow. however perhaps i just got that wrong and good to know that those -10C limit is not as absolute as one can get the impression while reading through forums and blogs, thanks for clarification."
-11C seems to be what it takes to freeze seawater, but if there's fresh water on the surface from ongoing melt? who knows.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: ghoti on April 30, 2016, 02:20:02 AM
Also note the the tides in the bay at Kimmirut are huge

http://www.kimmirutweather.com/tideprediction.html (http://www.kimmirutweather.com/tideprediction.html)

That certainly has to add to the tendency for ice to break and water to pool.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on April 30, 2016, 02:30:09 AM
Magnamentis "ok, didn't see that the post referred to buoy 14 or 13, the pic was showing quite some open water and distorted ice cover which is close to the coastline mostly and the temps on that coast are very similar from McKenzie delta over to Barrow. however perhaps i just got that wrong and good to know that those -10C limit is not as absolute as one can get the impression while reading through forums and blogs, thanks for clarification."
-11C seems to be what it takes to freeze seawater, but if there's fresh water on the surface from ongoing melt? who knows.

certainly you have a point as to salinity is a factor, just wondering out of curiosity whether it's possible that at those wind speeds and wave hight it's possible that fresh water would stay on the surface because it's less dense
it's like in astrophysics, each theory and observation raises a multitude of new questions, very complex indeed :-)
thanks for the hint however, perhaps one of the pros has a more educated opinion on the matter.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Greenbelt on April 30, 2016, 02:51:21 AM
Nearing 0c at Sachs Harbour this today. Record high temps will be approached this week.

Location:  https://www.google.com/maps/place/Sachs+Harbour,+NT,+Canada/@71.9866738,-143.1961827,4z/data= (https://www.google.com/maps/place/Sachs+Harbour,+NT,+Canada/@71.9866738,-143.1961827,4z/data=)!4m2!3m1!1s0x5109fd63f172c395:0xae7a914c6901e9c2
Weather:  http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nt-19_metric_e.html (http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nt-19_metric_e.html)
Records:  http://weather.gc.ca/almanac/almanac_e.html?id=2503650 (http://weather.gc.ca/almanac/almanac_e.html?id=2503650)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: ecojosh on April 30, 2016, 06:19:42 AM



Rivers Ob and Yenis now have long reaches of open water that should soon be reaching the Kara.  The Lena is open just below L. Baikal but has a long cold slide to the delta.  The Mackenzie is still tight from Lake Athabaska north but should begin to open this coming week if the forecast is at all accurate.  The Red River of the North is also still solid and running through a snow covered landscape.
[/quote]


As for the Red from Winnipeg to Lake Winnipeg, it has been wide open for weeks.  Possibly, you are thinking about the Nelson that runs into Hudson Bay.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: oren on April 30, 2016, 07:48:55 AM



Rivers Ob and Yenis now have long reaches of open water that should soon be reaching the Kara.  The Lena is open just below L. Baikal but has a long cold slide to the delta.  The Mackenzie is still tight from Lake Athabaska north but should begin to open this coming week if the forecast is at all accurate.  The Red River of the North is also still solid and running through a snow covered landscape.
Or probably Arctic Red River?

As for the Red from Winnipeg to Lake Winnipeg, it has been wide open for weeks.  Possibly, you are thinking about the Nelson that runs into Hudson Bay.
[/quote]
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 30, 2016, 09:14:30 AM
Parts of the arctic will see albedo busting weather.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FZxAOt1l.jpg&hash=416fce67793afde859c02e78c74193c5)



What the hell?

Insane!!!!!


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FgIqH2Pp.jpg&hash=307175e44295a7e883bbec4f1842cb4f)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Frd2O9OU.jpg&hash=3929aa60a811e5a90ee7e6ff51b3bddb)



Its FU***** April 29th
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on April 30, 2016, 09:24:03 AM
Nearing 0c at Sachs Harbour this today. Record high temps will be approached this week.

Location:  https://www.google.com/maps/place/Sachs+Harbour,+NT,+Canada/@71.9866738,-143.1961827,4z/data= (https://www.google.com/maps/place/Sachs+Harbour,+NT,+Canada/@71.9866738,-143.1961827,4z/data=)!4m2!3m1!1s0x5109fd63f172c395:0xae7a914c6901e9c2
Weather:  http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nt-19_metric_e.html (http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nt-19_metric_e.html)
Records:  http://weather.gc.ca/almanac/almanac_e.html?id=2503650 (http://weather.gc.ca/almanac/almanac_e.html?id=2503650)
Thanks that's very useful, upwind from the gyre. The temperatures for earlier this week can also be seen there http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?StationID=10076&Month=4&Day=28&Year=2016&timeframe=2 (http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?StationID=10076&Month=4&Day=28&Year=2016&timeframe=2)
on the 27th it was -7.5 C max and -14.4 min. It could actually have been warmer than that over the sea ice further west and explain the daily pattern in the ice formation.
We can expect that to stop now.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 30, 2016, 10:46:54 AM
F.Tinoli: no sarcasm!! And I now realize that I missed to post this link from NSIDC: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2015/10/2015-melt-season-in-review/ (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2015/10/2015-melt-season-in-review/)

Now, to the most recent conditions! Our good ole high pressure continues to be in charge for another couple of days ahead. The most interesting is when the temps will start to drop below normal according to DMI graph.

My forecast for the rest of this melt season is that the conditions will continue to be good for ice melting. However, I don't think that we'll see a record low extent by mid-september. The extent will be very low, probably below 4 Mn km2 according to IJIS numbers but not lower than 2012. More likely 3,7-3,9 Mn km2. Volume should be very close to 2012. 2016 should not be followed by another 2013 but instead of two big melt years in 2017-2018 which will push the Arctic to a new regime and further send shock  waves to the rest of the world. More like a repeat of 2010-2012 evolution.

Best, LMV
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on April 30, 2016, 12:47:39 PM
Signs of surface melting over land and ice at Point Hope AK (Chukchi sea). Yesterday. Here refreezing of open sea seems very unlikely.

Lord M Vader:

No sarcasm here either but your jump from short-term forecast to a melt season prediction was quite a leap! Coming from you it'd be very interesting to know the rationale behind your prediction. Feel free about it, obviously.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Carex on April 30, 2016, 02:45:40 PM

Or probably Arctic Red River?

As for the Red from Winnipeg to Lake Winnipeg, it has been wide open for weeks.  Possibly, you are thinking about the Nelson that runs into Hudson Bay.
[/quote]

Yes, the Arctic Red River.  It has always stuck in my head as the Red River of the North. Maybe London, or Marsh, or Curwood or White referred to it as such in one of their northern romances.  Or more likely that I totally forget about that southern stream that drains the southern high plains.  To those with a more southern mind that great slough through Dakota territory is probably thought of as north.

And yes the main tributaries feeding L. Winnipeg are flowing free, but not flooding this spring, The Red and Winnipeg, even the great western Assiniboine and Saskatchewan are open (although I can't really tell if the channels around Cumberland house are open).

Apologies for confusion caused.

And the Nelson now has good stretches of open water, both at the outlet and down stream of Stephen's Lake
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on April 30, 2016, 02:59:24 PM
Not sure if anyone has mentioned Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook (SIWO) 28 April report is out:

https://www.arcus.org/search-program/siwo (https://www.arcus.org/search-program/siwo)

Quote
2016 maximum winter extent of Arctic sea ice to be the lowest in the satellite record (1979-present), noting that unusually warm conditions have undoubtedly played an important role. This was due to a combination of factors, including unusually high winter air temperatures and well above normal water temperatures in the northeast Pacific (see January AOOS post), which was in part due to a strong El Niño. With reduced winter ice extent this year, the open ocean is able to take up more heat from the sun during spring, which may then also cause more rapid and extensive ice retreat in the northern Bering and southern Chukchi Seas later in the season.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Quantum on April 30, 2016, 03:13:09 PM
Can anyone confirm whether this is new sea ice or not?
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs32.postimg.org%2Fbrcc17781%2Fnewice.jpg%3FnoCache%3D1462021961&hash=56a9ab545497b3ea177191d66aecf048)

I'm honestly not sure whether it is or not and I'd appreciate people clarifying.  I'd also be interested to know how you know whether it is or isn't new ice.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 30, 2016, 05:40:24 PM
Quantum: I think it's refreezing! Look at https://sites.google.com/site/apamsr2/home/pngcby32/ (https://sites.google.com/site/apamsr2/home/pngcby32/) and compare the Beaufort for the last three days.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 30, 2016, 07:43:57 PM
Can anyone confirm whether this is new sea ice or not?

Have a look on Worldview: http://go.nasa.gov/24saV5Y (http://go.nasa.gov/24saV5Y)

Use the controls at the lower left to scroll back and forth a day at a time. There's a large area of thin wispy stuff in that vicinity.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on April 30, 2016, 09:11:53 PM
Here is a piece of the current complex motion at the rotation/translation interface, width of animation is 200 km. Rather warm out there right now. The circulation is predicted to shift to counterclockwise rotation by May 4th.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on April 30, 2016, 09:25:42 PM
Beufort (thanks steven!) refreeze of leads on April 28 EOSDIS

Cloud cover since then,

wonder what it will look like when the sky clears?

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Steven on April 30, 2016, 09:39:48 PM
Berents refreeze of leads on April 28 EOSDIS

Cloud cover since then,

wonder what it will look like when the sky clears?

I think you mean Beaufort (rather than "Berents").  The image you posted seems to be from the region in Beaufort Sea that Peter Ellis linked to in Reply #702 upthread:

http://go.nasa.gov/1Tk5Qoi (http://go.nasa.gov/1Tk5Qoi)

Here is an animation for that region, for 21 to 28 April:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FiDojC2F.gif&hash=772db449655cffaddbea899de871aa06)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: werther on April 30, 2016, 10:40:39 PM
To Seaicesailor:
Lord M Vader's prediction seems to have been conceived along the same lines as mine posted on 25 April. This COULD BE the "dragon king"- year, but I expect this to be a 'preppers' year. The odds for '17 look stronger. There's still a lot of volume to wreck...
To Quantum:
The swath you mark is in my opinion 60% debris from FIY Amundsen Gulf-ice blown out to the NW and 40% thin refreeze in between...
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: johnm33 on May 01, 2016, 12:05:39 AM
Quantum if you need more convincing
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww7320.nrlssc.navy.mil%2FhycomARC%2Fnavo%2Fbeaufortictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif&hash=a545ff636fc54ca2011c39d16a46223a)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on May 01, 2016, 01:25:20 AM
Whoa ... new Beaufort cracks extended several hundred km into the central icepack today. The middle 2 images are worth a click to view at full size (thin cracks don't display well at 700 pixel forum width). The bottom shows a brittle shear zone.

The reason for these new cracks? The Beaufort Gyre this year is slightly egg-shaped. The long axis points to the pole (moe or less). An elongate body cannot rotate freely -- it comes up against the central ice pack which is immobilized against the shore.

Earlier in the week, the Gyre was fracturing in such a way as to make a circle at the south end of the ellipse. A circle is free to rotate regardless of outside ice. However Gyre ice poleward of this circle was still had considerable angular momentum. This stress to the north was taken up by the central ice pack but it became too much at some point on April 30th.

Several small cracks appeared at high latitude but a point of weakness was found where we see the rapidly widening crack initiate in the animation of the next post. The scale is such that this crack is already 1-2 km wide at its mouth.

What happens tomorrow? More of the same, the wind pattern doesn't become unfavorable until May 4th.

What does it mean? It depends on what weather comes next. We have seen similar crack networks develop in past years. This timing this year, in terms of insolation and temperature, is unfavorable for the ice. However follow-on weather makes all the difference ... and that is not foreseeable very far out.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on May 01, 2016, 02:06:34 AM
Here is the run-up to the 30 Apr 16 event at 250 m resolution. These cracks open and close like lightening strikes on a scale of single days. The speed of propagation is hard to pin down given once a day imaging. The locator map is provided in #725.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: oren on May 01, 2016, 06:51:31 AM
Here is the run-up to the 30 Apr 16 event at 250 m resolution. These cracks open and close like lightening strikes on a scale of single days. The speed of propagation is hard to pin down given once a day imaging. The locator map is provided in #755.

Amazing. Almost looks like a glitch.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Tensor on May 01, 2016, 08:07:17 AM
Here is the run-up to the 30 Apr 16 event at 250 m resolution. These cracks open and close like lightening strikes on a scale of single days. The speed of propagation is hard to pin down given once a day imaging. The locator map is provided in #755.

I was fascinated by the movement, of the main mass, to the top right of the picture, after the crack happens, for some reason. That's a lot of Ice to be moving. 
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on May 01, 2016, 09:16:05 AM
Whoa ...
Something to add to your list of things that make you sit up and take notice in the morning; A-Team going "Whoa".

Now looking at it, I find myself more concerned about the shear zones.  They are more indicative of widespread weakness in the ice.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Pi26 on May 01, 2016, 09:29:04 AM
Then every km2 sea ice as 1000 pieces gets factor 1.2 to 1.5 more surface against water. Together with moving (also more transfer) averaged energy transfer and thereby melting rates soon could be factor 1.5 - even at factor 1.15 overall most arctic sea ice goes before melt season ends?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 01, 2016, 10:02:00 AM





Incredible


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FiLBILLM.jpg&hash=ab75bf0a33263cf411237ba4c3b100a7)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F5JLjW7C.png&hash=9669160b31db0d47f258e42d3569dc3a)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: werther on May 01, 2016, 10:10:13 AM
This is a compilation of the for MODIS tiles around the North Pole. It’s from 29 April.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2F2016%252004%252029%2520North%2520Pole%2520small_zpszvxl3xip.jpg&hash=5cee1719a031b0c07f710710df1ee121)

Within the red 50 km diameter circle there are already a lot of visible stress leads. My conclusion is that there’s less snow cover than usual. The movement of the sea ice is extremely visible considering it is only end of April.
It makes me wonder if a stretch of the safe-icepack pattern I got used to since I started sampling MODIS (around 2009) will be visible this summer.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 01, 2016, 11:07:46 AM
Seaicesailor: Werther is quite correct in his analysis of my thinking. I shall evolve it later though! :)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: DavidR on May 01, 2016, 12:07:02 PM
Seaicesailor: Werther is quite correct in his analysis of my thinking. I shall evolve it later though! :)
You  guys sound like a Farmer telling  us it always rains after a drought.

We are in the middle of the biggest heating event in the records. The NH  temperatures are shattering records, half a degree above the previous records . It won't stop till September. The only thing that  makes this year a "preppers" year is that  next  year will be much worse for the ice, probably  ice free.

This year will  be bad enough.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: 6roucho on May 01, 2016, 01:00:20 PM
Seaicesailor: Werther is quite correct in his analysis of my thinking. I shall evolve it later though! :)
You  guys sound like a Farmer telling  us it always rains after a drought.

We are in the middle of the biggest heating event in the records. The NH  temperatures are shattering records, half a degree above the previous records . It won't stop till September. The only thing that  makes this year a "preppers" year is that  next  year will be much worse for the ice, probably  ice free.

This year will  be bad enough.
Another thing to consider is that next year's winter heating event might be worse than this year's. In some respects that would be more alarming than becoming ice free in the summer.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 01, 2016, 02:06:57 PM
A mid to late May to early to mid June Western CAB, Beaufort, Chuchki, and ESS ridge could result in a massive polyanna by July 1-10 between 75-80N in the Pacific side basin.

That is a ridiculous amount of 1.25M and thinner ice. 

And it's really far North.

As soon as melt ponds form and snow is melted off. Being such thin FYI bottom ice melt will explode.

Bottom melt could start as early as June 1st. 

In the 1950s to 1980s bottom ice melt didn't get going until August and even then it was pathetic.

Last summer bottom ice melt was kicking ass

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fp1qx5k0.jpg&hash=0a0a1249bc68d84d4e40ce01e32ee4b2)


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FZgBz8gN.jpg&hash=851816e977a4e3dae545884ae2c6d462)

I apologize but this is incredibly exciting.

We are running through new territory.  This isn't some bogus Hudson bay or SOO early melt out.

The Beaufort, Baffin, Barents, Bering, and soon to be Kara and Chukchi are losing ice at an unprecedented rate for this time of year. 

Insitu melt is weak but no melt/no thickening is real add that to endless cyclonic dipole pushing ice into the fram, Barents, and NATL and it gets shredded while new open water in the basin sees no to very thin new ice.

This means we currently have a record area of dark ocean dlsucking up energy.

This is the catalyst for a mid Summer epic thrust of heat directly into the Southern CAB.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: AmbiValent on May 01, 2016, 02:19:49 PM
Plus some of the thickest ice is incredibly exiting right through Fram Strait.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Buddy on May 01, 2016, 02:38:13 PM

Quote
Plus some of the thickest ice is incredibly exiting right through Fram Strait.

I think that this is something to watch closely this year for two reasons:  (1)  The only thick ice left is that along the northern coast of the Canadian Archipelago, and (2) it looks like that warm Atlantic waters never really ended last fall....and have caused melting to occur EARLIER this year "inside" of Svalbard.

The Fram has the potential to transport quite a bit more ice this year....  With the Beaufort breaking up early...and Fram providing a warmer more "fluid" push down through the strait....that could lead to an interesting season indeed...


Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: oren on May 01, 2016, 02:44:36 PM
Friv thank you for saying it so well.
The most amazing thing when looking at 2014 and 2015 is that the differences are in the heartland of the pack, inside the basin.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on May 01, 2016, 03:11:41 PM
The May 1st Aqua won't be fully loaded for another 12 hours but a portion of it is available now. The motion over the last ten days has been consistent in an erratic kind of way in the 80º 150ºW region. The animation is rotated -15º from WorldView so that the poleward 150th meridian is horizontal.

discourage Fram export. The animated contour map of wind power at bottom shows the rapid nature of change at 3 hour intervals (and is a little jumpy because nullschool does not have data for all incremented times).
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Greenbelt on May 01, 2016, 04:34:11 PM
Forecast for a few days hence looks like a big high right over the central Arctic
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpamola.um.maine.edu%2F%2FDailySummary%2Fframes%2FGFS-025deg%2FARC-LEA%2FT2_anom%2F32.png&hash=245ddb4fd48fa17591003d5c0a038f0f)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpamola.um.maine.edu%2Ffcst_frames%2FGFS-025deg%2FARC-LEA%2FPRCP%2F31.png&hash=b2a2c28966f12479dc03420d414510d2)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wetterzentrale.de%2Fpics%2FRecmnh961.gif&hash=9969948cf4e0734cfdc04f73d742ff2a)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: epiphyte on May 01, 2016, 05:56:09 PM
Quote from: Frivolousz21 link=topic=1493.msg75267#msg75267 date=1462104417

 [
could result in a massive polyanna ...


Interesting word use there, Friv! I was wondering what you were going to do when you ran out of superlatives.

...but now? ... such deftly-constructed reflexive auto-irony :)  Outstanding!
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 01, 2016, 06:52:03 PM
Forecast for a few days hence looks like a big high right over the central Arctic
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpamola.um.maine.edu%2F%2FDailySummary%2Fframes%2FGFS-025deg%2FARC-LEA%2FT2_anom%2F32.png&hash=245ddb4fd48fa17591003d5c0a038f0f)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpamola.um.maine.edu%2Ffcst_frames%2FGFS-025deg%2FARC-LEA%2FPRCP%2F31.png&hash=b2a2c28966f12479dc03420d414510d2)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wetterzentrale.de%2Fpics%2FRecmnh961.gif&hash=9969948cf4e0734cfdc04f73d742ff2a)

Insolation is reaching a point of busting down the cold pool over the arctic region by overwhelming the snow albedo effect.


Right now the entire arctic basin is mostly dry snow. 

With an albedo ranging from .70 to .80(+/-.03 to .05) even on a clear day with 350w/m2 of down welling insolation even 400+ as we get into May.   Three majority of the suns heat is being reflected back.

However even without surface melt. The sun will break the snow flakes down.  The surface will slowly moisten up and eventually a break through will happen where the top layer of the snow or bare ice will get wet. 

And if the pattern continues surface melt will quickly erupt into shallow very shallow melt puddles and with that albedo will drop from .7 to .8 down to .40 to .55(+/-.60).

All of a sudden solar energy on a clear day in mid to late May is doubled or even tripled in terms of surface absorbtion.

Which means OLR will go up a ton and of course general long wave radiation will also increase. 


As this happens we can expect the models to start showing major ridging over the Pacific side.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FCFTpCTF.jpg&hash=8a56e3f0fbb20d589c5f69e3406c8694)


The CAA is extremely vital to the fate of the Southern Cab and GIS. 

Since roughly half of it is land once the snow melts during sunny ridging or WAA events the land areas will dry out and warm  up dramatically.


 Under the right circumstances localized inversions along the shore line will get broken and the solar driven warm air will flow over the ice sheet and accelerate melt.

And since the CAA ice is land fast most of the summer large melt lakes miles long/wide form and likely dramatically lower albedo.

This special warming is what allows 3-5M ice in the CAA to melt out in one summer.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Ninebelowzero on May 01, 2016, 07:15:36 PM
Is anyone currently doing research on modelling heat transfer to the Arctic by the jetstream meander?

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on May 01, 2016, 07:43:54 PM
Forecast for a few days hence looks like a big high right over the central Arctic
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpamola.um.maine.edu%2Ffcst_frames%2FGFS-025deg%2FARC-LEA%2FPRCP%2F31.png&hash=b2a2c28966f12479dc03420d414510d2)

Goes without saying I am not an expert in meteorology. But recalling from past years, these big, but low-gradient HP do not harm much the ice. This one in particular brings much weaker winds from continents and CR predicts clear conditions only over the central region. It comes with a general cooling of the CAB (some peripheral areas warm up though).

Werther surely remembers 2014 persistent cold highs in June and July that brought fog over the melting/sublimating ice and actually protected it from sun. An unexpected negative feedback no scientist had spoken of before (as far as I remember, was a lurker then). Where funny kinds of UFO-like mini-lows were creating strange circular shapes visible in MODIS as they were cuttting thru the mist. :) Actually it was fun. Cannot find the posts with the pics, they were cool! (In all senses of the word)

PS. In any case, the ice detachment from the Northwest Passage that HYCOM predicts can have quite an impact!
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on May 01, 2016, 07:46:45 PM
I'll just relay a reply I posted over on my blog....

Quote
Dreessen, David,

I am becoming much more optimistic about the prospects for a really exciting year in the Arctic Ocean.

Beaufort may prove critical. ASCAT shows some export over winter, so the crash I'll be discussing in my next post may well stall (a bit). Given ice state in Beaufort there is a reasonable expectation (IMO) of large tracts of open water early in the melt season under high insolation. From previous work for the whole Arctic, current ice thickness in Beaufort (~1.6m now) is well within the range of seasonal thinning - i.e. near 100% open water formation efficiency.

Under the Arctic Dipole (AD) regime of post 2007 summers the June/July average pressure shows a strong Beaufort High. This should drive water warmed in early season open ocean in Beaufort towards Chukchi and under the main pack. What goes towards Chukchi may then be entrained under the AD and driven into the East Siberian Sea. Ekman pumping may be expected to drive net flow to the right of the wind direction through the entire ocean column, but surface warming will be more in line with the wind flow.

The end result being that early inroads into the very thin poor ice state in Beaufort may then assist melt in the thicker (more normal) ice state in the East Siberian and Chukchi seas. That is before we get to considering the import of Pacific water through Bering due to the AD. The ENSO warmed tail from the tropics along the US/Canada East Coast may be entailed into Bering flow.

.....

In 2012 nothing at the start of the season justified the outcome. I haven't seen a year more primed to large losses than this year (noting that I have not carried out a forensic study of all years since 1979).

It's early to be sure, but I think we're in for a really exciting melt season.  8)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: pearscot on May 01, 2016, 07:47:03 PM
Is anyone currently doing research on modelling heat transfer to the Arctic by the jetstream meander?

You bring up a good point. I know the jetstream meanders more, meaning large dips and even small sections being 'cut off.'  Much of what's been thought is that this is due to less of a temperature differentiation between the arctic and equatorial latitudes. In addition, the jet stream is slowing as a result (like a rubber band loosening).  I think that you are correct in saying that massive, more stable blocking high patterns allow for greater amounts of warm air to travel closer to the arctic facilitated by an ever increasing cosineal pattern. Moreover, I think changes in ocean current (see cold blob) are also affecting heat transfer to the arctic both in the ocean and atmosphere.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 01, 2016, 07:48:54 PM
My Arctic Mayday message to the Twittosphere:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/726744699189473280 (https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/726744699189473280)

Any and all "Retweets" welcome!

Here's the gist of it:

http://youtu.be/E-6uPrJJl6Y (http://youtu.be/E-6uPrJJl6Y)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: theoldinsane on May 01, 2016, 07:56:57 PM
Interesting word use there, Friv! I was wondering what you were going to do when you ran out of superlatives.

Maybe Friv sometimes exaggerating things, but there are a lot of knowledge behind his writings. I love it.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Nick_Naylor on May 01, 2016, 08:50:59 PM
Interesting word use there, Friv! I was wondering what you were going to do when you ran out of superlatives.

Maybe Friv sometimes exaggerating things, but there are a lot of knowledge behind his writings. I love it.

Which word are you reacting to - Pollyanna? I assumed he was referring to the G.O.P.  :o
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: 6roucho on May 01, 2016, 09:17:21 PM
Friv would seem to be the opposite of the Polyanna principle (which is positivity bias).
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: lanevn on May 01, 2016, 09:25:22 PM
Just wonder, is Pollyanna an english word? It mean "meltpond" in Russian and maybe in some other languages, but google translate show something strange for english.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: lanevn on May 01, 2016, 09:28:59 PM
Ah, it correctly "polynya"
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on May 01, 2016, 09:39:09 PM
Quote
there is a lot of knowledge behind Friv's writings.
I also find Friv's posts very helpful. I sometimes have my hands full with technicalities of getting a product out the door and appreciate Friv chasing down the big picture overview and including source documentation that's informing it.

The central Arctic ice has not (yet) shattered like a broken mirror but there have been some follow-on developments on yesterday's event.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: werther on May 01, 2016, 09:44:21 PM
“You  guys sound like a Farmer telling  us it always rains after a drought”…

Well, David, “we” seem to have had some experience during the last say 13 years. Things do progress fast, at least on a geological perspective. But on a year to year human lifetime basis, things don’t work out overnight.

Considering all this, it sure has been the geophysical trip of a lifetime that I am witnessing.  I am aware that some may consider me to be an alarmist, but I’m not going into hyperdrive. Expect no expressions of torching, kick ass or whatsoever. I like to hold a standard in the right spelling of physical phenomena, even when they’re of non-English heritage. And I have the same respect for good scientific observation.

This planet is in trouble, but won’t stop turning tomorrow…

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: werther on May 01, 2016, 10:05:26 PM
“Is anyone currently doing research on modelling heat transfer to the Arctic by the jetstream meander?”
Ninebelowzero, I posted on that topic on 27 April. Look for:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~sbf1/papers/Flournoy_etal_2016.pdf (http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~sbf1/papers/Flournoy_etal_2016.pdf)

It describes a mechanism that may very well have influenced the Arctic winter that just ended.
The jetstream is a sideshow in this Rossby-wave promoted heat-transfer.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: werther on May 01, 2016, 10:23:27 PM
“Werther surely remembers 2014 persistent cold highs in June and July that brought fog over the melting/sublimating ice and actually protected it from sun.”

Seaicesailor, you refer to these sort of minicyclones in ’14:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FArctic%2520Ice%25202014%2FMicrocycloneCAB0207small_zps67bc55e8.jpg&hash=ad8c511028d8e86bd9073b26fcee26ae)

Indeed, I remember very well how weather played a crucial role during several ‘rebound’-years. Nevertheless, the general trend was never broken by these variable years. In some ways, winter warming has been a growing force in this trend. Especially the last one.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on May 01, 2016, 11:32:12 PM
Interesting word use there, Friv! I was wondering what you were going to do when you ran out of superlatives.

Maybe Friv sometimes exaggerating things, but there are a lot of knowledge behind his writings. I love it.

i as well can see and like underlaying knowledge but i wish sometimes that people were more aware that exageration of any kind comes at the cost of credibility and provides ammunition to interest driven deniers.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on May 01, 2016, 11:56:09 PM
Frivolousz: could you please say what the graph of insolation shows, is it daily average on clear days? is it top of atmosphere? can you quote a source?

"Which means OLR will go up a ton and of course general long wave radiation will also increase."
not sure what you mean there Outgoing Longwave Radiation is mainly a function of temperature because emissivity doesn't vary much between snow, ice and water. So OLR goes up when the surface warms from -30 to 0 degC but when looking at it as 243 to 273 K the increase isn't that huge even at T4. Dec to July averages at Barrow are in the range of 200 to 350 W/m2 which qualifies to the term "ton" if that means "hundredweight".
OLR is not interesting at all in the summer, what is interesting is whether incoming radiation is smaller or larger. You are right about albedo, these open waters in the Beaufort and those which will open when thinly refrozen leads melt will have a very different radiation balance from snow covered ice. But absorption of incoming short wave radiation (sun) is taking place through greater volume of ice or water, so it warms slowly. I think 2015 showed the effect of early open water when melt continued strongly in August when incoming shortwave is dropping off.
The other thing is that snow is a good absorber of Downwelling Longwave Radiation which comes from warm clouds. Warm moist air getting into the arctic kills snow more than any other weather feature unless it gets cold enough to precipitate as snow.
Obuoy14 seems to show fresh or newly drifted snow at about 76.7N 156W
 
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on May 02, 2016, 01:29:30 AM
NSIDC have done something with extent data. 20 April miles out but others til then look more reasonable.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: werther on May 02, 2016, 05:41:50 AM
NSDIC maybe, but JAXA has the melt still at ram course. Books almost a century drop. Bering, Okhotsk, Pechora; all periphery Seas are losing ice cover fast.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 02, 2016, 06:18:13 AM



Another century drop.


Unreal



(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FhYo4typ.jpg&hash=24e566d224d87bb34bdcc8a73b0862af)



(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FpoX5HuU.jpg&hash=b55b492e9dc84920c7a5385bd137c64b)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: epiphyte on May 02, 2016, 06:36:05 AM
Friv would seem to be the opposite of the Polyanna principle (which is positivity bias).

You got it... Apologies for the unintentional culturally-loaded reference - Polyanna was the protagonist in a mid-20th century children's novel, who was indefatigably optimistic, in spite of being an orphan living with an aunt who didn't like her - even to the extent of looking on the bright side of being hit by a car and being rendered unable to walk.

...so the perceived irony was that Friv doesn't do that.
...Except that he did. In a manner of speaking, at least :)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on May 02, 2016, 06:37:46 AM



Another century drop.


Unreal


Expect more.  Judging from the forecast for the next week looking at cci-reanalyzer, I expect the Bering an Okhotsk to all but melt out completely, major melt to take place in the Barents and Baffin Bay, More open water in the Beaufort, and melt starting in the Chukchi and Kara.

I think we'll pass 12 million extent 10 days ahead of the previous earliest date, and have a very good chance of blowing past 10.5 million by May 31.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: 6roucho on May 02, 2016, 07:15:20 AM
Friv would seem to be the opposite of the Polyanna principle (which is positivity bias).

You got it... Apologies for the unintentional culturally-loaded reference - Polyanna was the protagonist in a mid-20th century children's novel, who was indefatigably optimistic, in spite of being an orphan living with an aunt who didn't like her - even to the extent of looking on the bright side of being hit by a car and being rendered unable to walk.

...so the perceived irony was that Friv doesn't do that.
...Except that he did. In a manner of speaking, at least :)
Now I DO get it.  :)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Sourabh on May 02, 2016, 08:13:57 AM
This is the first time in which temperature has been above average so far. If we look at past four DMI temperature graph, every year remained below average for almost entire May and June. So, this year with already less ice (in extent, area, and volume) and higher temperature, things might become really interesting in coming two or three weeks.


Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 02, 2016, 08:54:49 AM
Folks, I just ran over this very interesting article from NOAA's ENSO-blog by Dr Amy Butler dubbed "El Niño and stratospheric polar vortex":

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/el-niño-and-stratospheric-polar-vortex (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/el-niño-and-stratospheric-polar-vortex)

Interesting reading! :)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: abbottisgone on May 02, 2016, 09:01:19 AM
Interesting word use there, Friv! I was wondering what you were going to do when you ran out of superlatives.

Maybe Friv sometimes exaggerating things, but there are a lot of knowledge behind his writings. I love it.

i as well can see and like underlaying knowledge but i wish sometimes that people were more aware that exageration of any kind comes at the cost of credibility and provides ammunition to interest driven deniers.
You can't live your life scared of vested interests.

People in positions of Authority are hamstrung by the politics of process and the IPCC reports are necessarily conservative by nature as all contributing governments have to agree what goes into those reports.

Numbers speak volumes but they are only indicators in themselves! The process of measurement is itself conservative is what I'm trying to say I think.

..  :o ....yeh, yeh-I think that's it!!
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 02, 2016, 11:13:17 AM
Folks, I just ran over this very interesting article from NOAA's ENSO-blog by Dr Amy Butler dubbed "El Niño and stratospheric polar vortex":

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/el-niño-and-stratospheric-polar-vortex (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/el-niño-and-stratospheric-polar-vortex)

Interesting reading! :)

Definitely goes hand in hand with the weather we, have had This Spring
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 02, 2016, 01:10:32 PM
The floe that ice mass balance buoy 2015F is sitting on has finally reached a thickness of 2 meters:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-2015-16-imbs/#2015F-Temp (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-2015-16-imbs/#2015F-Temp)

It's now warming up rapidly though. Here's the current overview:

Pos: 81.85 N, 149.52 W
Air Temp: -11.17 C
Air Pres: 1026.92 mb
Snow depth: 17 cm
Ice thickness: 200 cm

FDD: 4749
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: DavidR on May 02, 2016, 02:33:23 PM
Interesting word use there, Friv! I was wondering what you were going to do when you ran out of superlatives.

Maybe Friv sometimes exaggerating things, but there are a lot of knowledge behind his writings. I love it.

i as well can see and like underlaying knowledge but i wish sometimes that people were more aware that exageration of any kind comes at the cost of credibility and provides ammunition to interest driven deniers.
There is also the danger of not making reasonable predictions, which  justifies people claiming that they weren't warned.  Given the extraordinary temperatures of the last six months and the melting we have seen so far this year it  is not unreasonable to predict  the high likelihood of a record melt this year.

Deniers will prove to be wrong, but the people who  make decisions should be aware of what is happening based on reasonable predictions.  We were told years ago that  the ice would disappear about now and it is likely to happen. Would we be better off if the scientists came out and said "Surprise!, the Arctic ice has disappeared". 

Its better to have an alarm that goes off unnecessarily than have one that doesn't go off till it's too late.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on May 02, 2016, 05:08:05 PM
The floe that ice mass balance buoy 2015F is sitting on has finally reached a thickness of 2 meters:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-2015-16-imbs/#2015F-Temp (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-2015-16-imbs/#2015F-Temp)

It's now warming up rapidly though. Here's the current overview:

Pos: 81.85 N, 149.52 W
Air Temp: -11.17 C
Air Pres: 1026.92 mb
Snow depth: 17 cm
Ice thickness: 200 cm

FDD: 4749

This buoy is at the perfect location to tell us how far the melt front from the Pacific side will go. If by July 1 it doesn't show clear bottom AND surface melting, we can be almost certain 2012 record will not be broken (see 2012 uni bremen map of that date).

The buoy is within the best protected areas of the Pacific area according to PIOMAS thickness, TOPAZ snow depth model (about a 30 cm layer), temperatures during Winter  (bottom growth has been sustained and substantial), and set into 3rd year ice (it was set last year over 2nd year old ice).
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on May 02, 2016, 05:10:12 PM
......
[i as well can see and like underlaying knowledge but i wish sometimes that people were more aware that exageration of any kind comes at the cost of credibility and provides ammunition to interest driven deniers.
There is also the danger of not making reasonable predictions, which  justifies people claiming that they weren't warned.  Given the extraordinary temperatures of the last six months and the melting we have seen so far this year it  is not unreasonable to predict  the high likelihood of a record melt this year.

Deniers will prove to be wrong, but the people who  make decisions should be aware of what is happening based on reasonable predictions.  We were told years ago that  the ice would disappear about now and it is likely to happen. Would we be better off if the scientists came out and said "Surprise!, the Arctic ice has disappeared". 

Its better to have an alarm that goes off unnecessarily than have one that doesn't go off till it's too late.

The problem is that the alarm which goes off prematurely can be taken as a sign that the alarm itself is unreliable, this is exploited of course by those which oppose action to reduce CO2 output.
I am hoping to be listened to because I choose what I say carefully  and can back it with science, but that can take me a long time.

I like friv's comments for the information they contain (and more so if I can learn something from them), I never cared much for excited sports commentary.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on May 02, 2016, 05:16:37 PM
The floe that ice mass balance buoy 2015F is sitting on has finally reached a thickness of 2 meters:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-2015-16-imbs/#2015F-Temp (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-2015-16-imbs/#2015F-Temp)

It's now warming up rapidly though. Here's the current overview:

Pos: 81.85 N, 149.52 W
Air Temp: -11.17 C
Air Pres: 1026.92 mb
Snow depth: 17 cm
Ice thickness: 200 cm

FDD: 4749

This buoy is at the perfect location to tell us how far the melt front from the Pacific side will go. If by July 1 it doesn't show clear bottom AND surface melting, we can be almost certain 2012 record will not be broken (see 2012 uni bremen map of that date).

The buoy is within the best protected areas of the Pacific area according to PIOMAS thickness, TOPAZ snow depth model (about a 30 cm layer), temperatures during Winter  (bottom growth has been sustained and substantial), and set into 3rd year ice (it was set last year over 2nd year old ice).
What date is your DMI image?  Here's today's.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on May 02, 2016, 05:31:12 PM
As posted by a-team in comment 740 nullschool shows wind direction in the beaufort to change. Weaker wind will blow towards Amundsen gulf instead of out of it. Will this reduce the open water or just stop its growth? We will see.
North of Svalbard ice will be transported towards the Fram and temperatures which are already making leads freeze very slowly there are set to rise. But this is exporting younger ice than the more northerly direction which has persisted for over a  month
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: dnem on May 02, 2016, 05:57:17 PM
Longtime lurker.  Have to say the friv/pollyanna/polynya misunderstanding is one of the funniest language confusions I've come ever across.  Just priceless.  I once gave a talk at an international tuna management (ICCAT) meeting in the Azores that was simultaneously translated.  Every time I said "poisson distribution" they translated it into "fish distribution"!

Thanks everyone for the incredible level of discourse across these forums.  Following this melt season here promises to be incredibly fascinating.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: theoldinsane on May 02, 2016, 06:40:19 PM
Longtime lurker.  Have to say the friv/pollyanna/polynya misunderstanding is one of the funniest language confusions I've come ever across.  Just priceless.  I once gave a talk at an international tuna management (ICCAT) meeting in the Azores that was simultaneously translated.  Every time I said "poisson distribution" they translated it into "fish distribution"!

Thanks everyone for the incredible level of discourse across these forums.  Following this melt season here promises to be incredibly fascinating.

+1

Only love remains as Guy McPherson use to say. I want to add something: Only love and joy remains. It is our duty to relax and try to enjoy life as it is right now because we don´t know how long it will last.

Excuse me Neven. I know this is OT in this thread.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on May 02, 2016, 07:02:12 PM
Longtime lurker.  Have to say the friv/pollyanna/polynya misunderstanding is one of the funniest language confusions I've come ever across.  Just priceless.  I once gave a talk at an international tuna management (ICCAT) meeting in the Azores that was simultaneously translated.  Every time I said "poisson distribution" they translated it into "fish distribution"!

I concur, language is a funny thing.  Glad you took a moment to say, "hello".

Quote
Thanks everyone for the incredible level of discourse across these forums.  Following this melt season here promises to be incredibly fascinating.

if by "fascinating", you mean "terrifying", "tragic", "macabre", "upending" and "dissolving of global paradigms".
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: cesium62 on May 02, 2016, 07:03:21 PM
Another century drop.

Expect more.  Judging from the forecast for the next week looking at cci-reanalyzer, I expect the Bering an Okhotsk to all but melt out completely, major melt to take place in the Barents and Baffin Bay, More open water in the Beaufort, and melt starting in the Chukchi and Kara.

I think we'll pass 12 million extent 10 days ahead of the previous earliest date, and have a very good chance of blowing past 10.5 million by May 31.

The Bering and Okhotsk nearly melting out the first week of May would be quite something.  Wipneus' extent graphs suggest the Bering might not "normally" nearly melt out until the 3rd week of May.  Okhotsk tends to melt out sooner, but it would be a precipitous drop from where we are now.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on May 02, 2016, 07:17:12 PM
FDD anomaly reached 1001
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcires1.colorado.edu%2F%7Easlater%2FARCTIC_TAIR%2FIMG%2Farctic_t2m_dfa_2016.gif&hash=1c5ce41ff39e4229cf35941ef29167a2)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 02, 2016, 07:36:45 PM
Time to update the scale or? :P
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 02, 2016, 08:29:02 PM
From DMI's thickness/volume chart it's now clear that we are slightly ahead 2012 in terms of volume. However, we are still behind 2011 which had the lowest volume at May 1.See: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php)

Further, DMI hints that volume increase/loss was more or less zero for April.Should be interesting to see what PIOMAS yields!

//LMV
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on May 02, 2016, 08:31:42 PM
Time to update the scale or? :P

I'd say.  We're 800 FDD's below anything even *resembling* average.  Now do also remember this is the anomaly not the total FDD count.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on May 02, 2016, 09:49:07 PM

This buoy is at the perfect location to tell us how far the melt front from the Pacific side will go. If by July 1 it doesn't show clear bottom AND surface melting, we can be almost certain 2012 record will not be broken (see 2012 uni bremen map of that date).

The buoy is within the best protected areas of the Pacific area according to PIOMAS thickness, TOPAZ snow depth model (about a 30 cm layer), temperatures during Winter  (bottom growth has been sustained and substantial), and set into 3rd year ice (it was set last year over 2nd year old ice).
What date is your DMI image?  Here's today's.

i think he mentioned July 1st 2012 and those are Uni Bremen images except i misunderstood something, standing to be corrected.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: werther on May 02, 2016, 09:57:10 PM
The positive anomalies in temp still dominate the Arctic. The Beaufort Gyre produced 14 days of max. 8 dC. Temp anomalies in the Kara sea up to 9dC. And the Labrador/Baffin at +4-5 dC.

The Low intrusion into the Beaufort Sea doesn't look to produce the effect forecast 3-4 days ago.
Expect steady further losses in extent for the next fortnight. However, this year might regress a bit to normal extent numbers when usual Hudson Bay melt happens later and more spread out.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on May 02, 2016, 10:02:00 PM
some may remember those little melt ponds that developed from slightly darker wet snow spots a few days ago. for me as laymen it's quite interesting to see that those areas are still growing every day, even though temps have been permanently below freezing and that's freshwater (snow and ice ) as far as i can tell.

to me that seems to be a good example as to what huge impact lower albedo has to melting, just slightly darker, light blue spots are seemingly sufficiently dark to grow, despite the below freezing temps, just with a bit of sunshine, not even 100% blue skies.

if there is another reason for this i'd gladly learn about it :-)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: werther on May 02, 2016, 10:24:30 PM
Magnamentis, it's great you and others are following this so closely.
I've been looking at that webcam in former years and IIRC this first melt is very early. It coincides with strong positive temp anomalies over Labrador Sea/Baffin Bay through April.

Expect some more as Climate Reanalyzer forecasts a fresh gust of warm weather over the CAA within a few days.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on May 02, 2016, 10:25:30 PM
The floe that ice mass balance buoy 2015F is sitting on has finally reached a thickness of 2 meters:
[...]
Here's the current overview:

Pos: 81.85 N, 149.52 W
Air Temp: -11.17 C
Air Pres: 1026.92 mb
Snow depth: 17 cm
Ice thickness: 200 cm
FDD: 4749

This buoy is at the perfect location to tell us how far the melt front from the Pacific side will go. If by July 1 it doesn't show clear bottom AND surface melting, we can be almost certain 2012 record will not be broken (see 2012 uni bremen map of that date).

The buoy is within the best protected areas of the Pacific area according to PIOMAS thickness, TOPAZ snow depth model (about a 30 cm layer), temperatures during Winter  (bottom growth has been sustained and substantial), and set into 3rd year ice (it was set last year over 2nd year old ice).
What date is your DMI image?  Here's today's.

Maybe I did not express myself clearly. I repost the map of ice concentration of July 1, 2012 (from University of Bremen). Over it, I have placed now a square marker showing the approximate position of buoy 2015F. Observe that a reduction of concentration was already present at such high latitude by that date in 2012. If there was surface melting, it is reasonable to think that bottom freezing had already ceased and was picking up.
Browsing the maps one can observe that the concentration reduction was on and off during the following days until mid July when it started to steadily decrease and did not stop decreasing until September. That location ended being right at the ice edge of the 2012 September minimum.

If this year's melting is to go beyond 2012's this buoy will have shown some surface melting by July. No surface melting by then, or still has snow on top, it will tell me of very low probability of a record two months in advance.

Just to remark the fine location of that buoy this year. Keep an eye.

PS. By the way, this map is based on SSMIS 17 rather than AMSR2; hence the greater sensitivity of concentration on surface melting. Uni Bremen browser displays AMSR2-based maps from August 1 July 24, 2012 thereon.

PPS. Other years as 2015 have shown surface melting or broken ice at that latitude by that day. With the pedantry my English allows, this will be a sine qua non condition.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: werther on May 02, 2016, 10:37:47 PM
BTW, I checked the location of Kimmirut on today's MODIS tile.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FKimmirut_zpsvsrvmjhl.jpg&hash=a4fcf73bf79508175268c1676d8bb7fc)

In front of the fjord-coast there's still a broad swath of fast-ice. It does show some indications of wet stretches, but it will take some time before it clears and the Kimmirut fjord will really start melting/washing out.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on May 03, 2016, 01:22:50 AM
Quote
The floe that ice mass balance buoy 2015F is sitting on has finally reached a thickness of 2 meters:
Pos: 81.85 N, 149.52 W
Air Temp: -11.17 C
Snow depth: 17 cm
Ice thickness: 200 cm
It would really be a lot better to plot the drift of these buoys on some other projection than Mercator, namely the common projection used by nullschool stereographic and and WorldView (Greenland-down polar). Then we could see what the past, present and predicted ambient conditions are by combining the various available features.

This buoy is [[NOT]] actually sitting on the outer edge of the active Beaufort Gyre. Here I maneuvered the upper right corner of the snapshot feature until the lat,lon coordinates matched up very closely to those provided.

[Edit: this is incorrect, WorldView has a nasty display bug, see next two posts].
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Tensor on May 03, 2016, 01:43:28 AM
Quote
The floe that ice mass balance buoy 2015F is sitting on has finally reached a thickness of 2 meters:
Pos: 81.85 N, 149.52 W
Air Temp: -11.17 C
Snow depth: 17 cm
Ice thickness: 200 cm
It would really be a lot better to plot the drift of these buoys on some other projection than Mercator, namely the common projection used by nullschool stereographic and and WorldView (Greenland-down polar). Then we could see what the past, present and predicted ambient conditions are by combining the various available features.

This buoy is actually sitting on the outer edge of the active Beaufort Gyre. Here I maneuvered the upper right corner of the snapshot feature until the lat,lon coordinates matched up very closely to those provided.

A-Team,
are those coordinates accurate on the image?  If they are, it appears your image has the buoy around 105 W, not 149 W.  Or am I missing something?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on May 03, 2016, 04:03:12 AM
Quote
are those coordinates accurate on the image?  If they are, it appears your image has the buoy around 105 W, not 149 W.  Or am I missing something?
You're right. What you see is what I got taking a screenshot of EOSDIS Worldview display coordinates, it looks like they have a grievous programming error in the mouse-over lat, lon coordinates as well as the snap box corners. The text is so small I could not read the longitude labels on the radial lines to see the conflict.

This is not a confusion of E and W but may be some problem with coordinates not keeping pace with zoom. Worldview does not allow entry/display of coordinates or strings of them (paths) in the manner of Google Earth kml. It offers two distinct lat,lon grids, one simply called 'polar view graticule' and the other EPSG3995 that draw the latitude circles in different places. There might be a slight effect if one used the WGS84 ellipsoid and the other didn't.

Meanwhile nullschool does offer a variety of projections but these seem very sketchily described and not referenced to the international nomenclature standards (WorldView uses EPSG3413). None of them seem to exactly match the plate carree (EPSG: 4326) system of Google Earth which itself has been the source of endless confusion.

Nullschool does not offer any mechanism for snapping to a standard view or returning to a previous one. The grid option provides of unlabelled latitude circles, no longitude lines, no scale, no orientation. I get the sense that the server is still going great but coding stopped a couple years ago.

It would be very convenient to put buoy paths into Google Earth but not so convenient to load WorldView satellite image or nullschool weather data on top, despite an option for doing so. On the other hand, there is no convenient export of vector data out of Google Earth into nullschool or Worldview that I know of. It does seem feasible to get WorldView and nullschool to overlay very well using the 'Stereographic' projection in the latter followed by a scale change and rotation (example a few posts back).

Overall we've run into similar incompatibilities many times before. NSIDC uses the best choice for polar view and a lot of our resources also use that. The Arctic and Antarctic are special situations and for some sites, just a sideline that they have not overly concerned themselves with. Landsat-8 and Sentinel 2A scenes are so tiny in extent compared to the whole Arctic Ocean that the little UTM zones make sense for them.

It is an unfortunate situation that we can't effortlessly marshall all the data in one sensible coord system. Every time something has to be re-projected, the data is degraded. Only a very few operations are harmless.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: DavidR on May 03, 2016, 04:13:10 AM
ESRL-NOAA temperature data for April is available now at:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl)

Arctic 67N+ temperatures for Air and SST were fourth in the records

80N+ temperatures were 8th and 10th respectively.  These ratings are consistent with the DMI graphs. Although (edit April)  2016 has been consistently above the average it has not had any periods of exceptional warmth. Not sure whether that is good or bad for the ice.

Global Temperatures were 0.2 dC above the previous record for April which means the April report should indicate 12 successive record months.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Tensor on May 03, 2016, 04:52:40 AM
Quote
are those coordinates accurate on the image?  If they are, it appears your image has the buoy around 105 W, not 149 W.  Or am I missing something?
You're right. What you see is what I got taking a screenshot of EOSDIS Worldview display coordinates, it looks like they have a grievous programming error in the mouse-over lat, lon coordinates as well as the snap box corners.

snip...

It is an unfortunate situation that we can't effortlessly marshall all the data in one sensible coord system. Every time something has to be re-projected, the data is degraded. Only a very few operations are harmless.

OK, thanks for the explanation.  I'm excited in a way, as I am no where near you guys when it comes to manipulating data, images, and explaining these things.   So, for me to catch something, and be of some small bit of help is kinda cool for me.  That it came at the expense of your work, makes it a little less cool.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: S.Pansa on May 03, 2016, 07:42:38 AM
This forecast is still a long way out so .... but GFS and Euro do agree quite well methinks.

If this comes true, the Beaufort Sea might soon be all blue.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on May 03, 2016, 08:29:40 AM
I have contacted NASA via the feedback link on the "i" button in the top right corner on a different issue (band31 night was displaying antarctica instead of arctic) and in the reply Jeff Schmaltz said very apologetically "We made some major software, hardware, and network changes late last week and we're still picking up the pieces." Maybe the issues you had are related?
Looking at the lat/lon coordinates for the pointer, they now look reasonable to me but haven't checked them against known locations.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 03, 2016, 09:52:07 AM
It would be very convenient to put buoy paths into Google Earth but not so convenient to load WorldView satellite image or nullschool weather data on top, despite an option for doing so. On the other hand, there is no convenient export of vector data out of Google Earth into nullschool or Worldview that I know of. It does seem feasible to get WorldView and nullschool to overlay very well using the 'Stereographic' projection in the latter followed by a scale change and rotation (example a few posts back).

Here's how things look in Google Earth. The background is Terra from April 27th, loaded via:

http://map1.vis.earthdata.nasa.gov/twms-geo/kmlgen.cgi?layers=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor&time=2016-04-27 (http://map1.vis.earthdata.nasa.gov/twms-geo/kmlgen.cgi?layers=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor&time=2016-04-27)

The foreground is available by scrolling to the very bottom of:

https://batchgeo.com/map/imb-2015f (https://batchgeo.com/map/imb-2015f)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on May 03, 2016, 09:55:39 AM
ESRL-NOAA temperature data for April is available now at:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl)

Arctic 67N+ temperatures for Air and SST were fourth in the records

80N+ temperatures were 8th and 10th respectively.  These ratings are consistent with the DMI graphs. Although 2016 has been consistently above the average it has not had any periods of exceptional warmth. Not sure whether that is good or bad for the ice.

Global Temperatures were 0.2 dC above the previous record for April which means the April report should indicate 12 successive record months.

what seems to be noteworthy in this context is that even though we can mostly find years with warmer temps for a specific date, that this year the values are consistently in the top ranks. what i'm trying to say is that in every given year of the past, for example in the years temps were higher on a given date then this year, one would easily find much lower temps before and after that date while this year, the only thing one would find is another top 10 or worse rank. in short, the graphs are quite relentless and stable on a very high temperature level while they usually would drop and peak and drop and peak intermittently.

if someone would like to pick this topic and find a better way to explain perhaps? just hope i was able to at least submit the basic thought as to what i mean. :-)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 03, 2016, 10:10:19 AM
The models all show a ridge building into a dipole. 

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fafzo8HX.jpg&hash=910798e4ffd9ee59b35c6801373c973b)


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FHviZWGk.jpg&hash=1e1c2a1c9b0eee590cdaa0a0ac71adbb)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: 6roucho on May 03, 2016, 01:56:51 PM
ESRL-NOAA temperature data for April is available now at:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl)

Arctic 67N+ temperatures for Air and SST were fourth in the records

80N+ temperatures were 8th and 10th respectively.  These ratings are consistent with the DMI graphs. Although 2016 has been consistently above the average it has not had any periods of exceptional warmth. Not sure whether that is good or bad for the ice.

Global Temperatures were 0.2 dC above the previous record for April which means the April report should indicate 12 successive record months.
Can someone explain this to me? We've had what seemed like record winter temperatures. Why are 57N+ and 80N+ air and SSTs so far from being the highest on record?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on May 03, 2016, 01:57:42 PM
Quote
excited to catch something
That's the great strength of these forums, one person thrashes around and the next person improves it. Within hours as someone is awake somewhere. JimH has made a great addition hooking us into this new Nasa GIBS service https://wiki.earthdata.nasa.gov/display/GIBS/GIBS+API+for+Developers (https://wiki.earthdata.nasa.gov/display/GIBS/GIBS+API+for+Developers)

Quote
I contacted NASA via the feedback link and got the reply "We made some major changes and we're still picking up the pieces." the lat/lon coordinates for the pointer ok reasonable to me but haven't checked them against known locations.
Good initiative! That could explain a lot. The north pole and a few of their lat,lon intersections should be checkable.

Quote
http://map1.vis.earthdata.nasa.gov/twms-geo/kmlgen.cgi?layers=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor&time=2016-04-27
I tried to open that "link" in Firefox + Safari + Chrome and discovered Safari + Chrome download a file called kmlgen.kml (variously kmlgen.cgi and kmlgen.cgi.kml) to desktop that opens in Google Earth in Temporary Places as  the expected Terra photo, along with numerous artifacts. It's easy to change the link to Aqua and a different date. Temporary Places has an option for adding a new network link such as these.

http://map1.vis.earthdata.nasa.gov/twms-geo/kmlgen.cgi?layers=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor&time=2016-05-01 (http://map1.vis.earthdata.nasa.gov/twms-geo/kmlgen.cgi?layers=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor&time=2016-05-01)

Quote
The foreground is available by scrolling to the very bottom of:
https://batchgeo.com/map/imb-2015f (https://batchgeo.com/map/imb-2015f)
Meaning, "copy the lat,lon text numbers from the last known position on that page into "Add Placemark" in Google Earth" or stub them all into a kml path template file as viewed in a text editor. 81.8471, -149.516 are the proper coordinates needed for a proper zoom in. Jim provides a very clean database of all the buoy measurements; these can also be brought into Google Earth for click-to-display or coloring the icons.

<Placemark>
      <name>Buoy Path example</name>
      <styleUrl>#m_ylw-pushpin</styleUrl>
      <LineString>
         <tessellate>1</tessellate>
         <coordinates>
            -149.5319636411747,81.84547621225951,0 -149.5196637261326,81.84457795393938,0 -149.5073927463677,81.84531375087926,0 -149.5047402439652,81.8468932657495,0
         </coordinates>
      </LineString>
   </Placemark>

Quote
Every time something has to be re-projected, the data is degraded. Only a very few operations are harmless.
This re-projection of Terra looks fairly awful in Google Earth.

Next up: how to fold in all the Nullschool resources into Google Earth?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Tealight on May 03, 2016, 02:15:41 PM
to me that seems to be a good example as to what huge impact lower albedo has to melting, just slightly darker, light blue spots are seemingly sufficiently dark to grow, despite the below freezing temps, just with a bit of sunshine, not even 100% blue skies.

if there is another reason for this i'd gladly learn about it :-)

Kimmirut is located at 63N outside the arctic circle and the sun already reaches 42.8 degrees above the horizon at noon. At 80-90 degrees north, the lower albedo wouldn't be quite as significant.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on May 03, 2016, 02:27:59 PM
if that were the reason the entire surface would give in to insolation while the white survace reflects most of the sunlight, no matter how high, at least at below freezing temps, only the dark spots that originated from the melting when temps were above freezing got bigger. in this case i think that the sun angle on bright white surfaces and below freezing temps has a minor impact.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: plinius on May 03, 2016, 02:45:17 PM
if that were the reason the entire surface would give in to insolation while the white survace reflects most of the sunlight, no matter how high, at least at below freezing temps, only the dark spots that originated from the melting when temps were above freezing got bigger. in this case i think that the sun angle on bright white surfaces and below freezing temps has a minor impact.

Careful with that. Sun angle has a very large impact on the ocean, because of the rising reflectance at low angle that is equally or more important than the mere geometric term. In addition - larger fetch increases waves, which can absorb a bit more sunlight at low sun elevation. So, while you are right on land, it makes quite a difference at sea, which is amongst the reasons why a dense ice/snow cover is so enormously important for the central arctic in May/June.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Tealight on May 03, 2016, 02:48:53 PM
the amount of energy absorbed doesn't just depend on surface reflectance. Especially with light cloud cover the amount of energy absorbed and reflected by the atmosphere varies greatly with the angle of incidence.

I can recommend the following page for details:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_mass_(solar_energy)#Accuracy_near_the_horizon

In the webcam picture the temperature was shown to be just 1.9C below 0C. Lets assume this equates to energy losses of 190W/m2. If light clouds let 50% of the sunlight through (500W/m2) and the dark spots have an albedo of 0.4 then the spots absorb 300W/m2. So the total energy gain is 110W/m2 at 1.9C below freezing.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on May 03, 2016, 03:45:00 PM
ESRL-NOAA temperature data for April is available now at:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl)

Arctic 67N+ temperatures for Air and SST were fourth in the records

80N+ temperatures were 8th and 10th respectively.  These ratings are consistent with the DMI graphs. Although 2016 has been consistently above the average it has not had any periods of exceptional warmth. Not sure whether that is good or bad for the ice.

Global Temperatures were 0.2 dC above the previous record for April which means the April report should indicate 12 successive record months.
Can someone explain this to me? We've had what seemed like record winter temperatures. Why are 57N+ and 80N+ air and SSTs so far from being the highest on record?

This is looking at April only which has been fairly normal:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcires1.colorado.edu%2F%7Easlater%2FARCTIC_TAIR%2FIMG%2Fbw_area_wgt_t2m_n80_2016.gif&hash=0c4a400907d4846c778f12037f68bf74)

 If you look at Jan-Mar period, then it has been really warm: 80-90N Air temp was record warmest in each of Jan, Feb and Mar and by quite large margins.

80-90N is a small part of global so there will be much more variability than in the global average.

Year__Jan_____Feb____Mar_____Apr       
2016  -19.938  -21.219  -21.939  -17.633
Previous
warmest: -21.042 -23.760 -23.702 -14.724

Jan - April 2016 -20.182
next warmest
Jan - April  2014 -23.049
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: 6roucho on May 03, 2016, 04:34:57 PM
Thank you crandles. D'oh, as Homer's fond of saying.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on May 03, 2016, 04:52:40 PM

Careful with that. Sun angle has a very large impact on the ocean, because of the rising reflectance at low angle that is equally or more important than the mere geometric term. In addition - larger fetch increases waves, which can absorb a bit more sunlight at low sun elevation. So, while you are right on land, it makes quite a difference at sea, which is amongst the reasons why a dense ice/snow cover is so enormously important for the central arctic in May/June.[/quote]

it's ok, everything has an impact of course just in THIS case i said because there are no waves and ice covered ocean cannot be compared with open waters and/or otherwise not fully covered. this is not such a big topic, it was clearly visible (one can compare the images i posted earlier with the later ones) that the growth of those dark spots originated from the smaller dark spots, while the white blanket, where was no melting before, remained white.

as someone who grew up in snow covered areas including summer snow, i remember very clearly that as long as temps were below zero, the snow first started to get wet in places where it was dirty (darker) while the rest remained quite intact even at higher sun angles and on slopes with a southern orientation.

that only changed when temps got a above freezing, hence the snow got wet and darker, which was when wider spread melt got a hold.

another scenario was when there was no fresh snow for an extended period of time so that the old snow got dirty from polution and eventually pollen and whatever else was in the air, dust, sand etc. i think we can agree that there are a variation of factors impacting melting behaviour, my point was the below zero part and the clearly visible impact of darker surfaces, nothing that new or surprising really.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: plinius on May 03, 2016, 06:06:48 PM
well, I'd point out then that measuring albedo differences with a usually self-adjusting camera is a bit difficult, and that pollution will be worse near a settlement. But I suppose we anyway agree on the core of the issue.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on May 03, 2016, 06:27:55 PM
exactly, i'm sure we mean the same, thank you to put it into a short and concise form haha... LOL
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on May 03, 2016, 06:51:39 PM

This is looking at April only which has been fairly normal:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcires1.colorado.edu%2F%7Easlater%2FARCTIC_TAIR%2FIMG%2Fbw_area_wgt_t2m_n80_2016.gif&hash=0c4a400907d4846c778f12037f68bf74)



I have often wondered if the regular decline in arctic DMI temperatures that occurs between April 15 and May 15th each of the past 4 years (and right around that time) through 2009!  is in some way all or partially attributable to the shift in U.S. gasoline refineries production of summer blend gasoline that occurs in late march.

just a thought, another would be a shift in polar cell behavior as the mid-latitudes warms up and the increased solar melt-transpiration of snow leading to increased water vapor content in early spring. . .
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jdallen on May 03, 2016, 10:04:18 PM
Young lead ice disintegrating in the Western Kara Sea.  4/27, 4/30, 5/1 and 5/3, in order.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: opensheart on May 03, 2016, 10:05:45 PM
I've seen the same 'stall' in temps north of 80 for the past few years.
To me it seems that in both spring and fall, the temps bounce around somewhere close to the -11 C mark.  Which is the 'observational' reported required air temp to get open, wave action, sea water to freeze solid.

Thus I've thought of that -11C temp as a boundary temp between freezing and melting states.  and thus there is some hesitency, or back and forth behavior, before the state changes.   Thus it seems to me to happen in spring as the state changes from freezing to melting and in late fall when the state changes from melting to freezing.

I consider the stall at this range to be Negative feedback,  (Negative is the one that moderates and pulls back to normal, right. Can never keep those straight).

If/when we loose this behavior,  meaning we no longer see a stall at this range. (like the spring temps stay above normal all the way up to 0C. )  I would take that as a bad sign that we have forced our way passed a tipping point of sorts and have lost/overpowered a Negative feedback.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: DavidR on May 03, 2016, 11:03:20 PM
Thank you crandles. D'oh, as Homer's fond of saying.

67N+ has also  been at record levels through Jan - Mar.  Both 67N and 80N were 1 Std deviation above the previous record for the period for both  Air and SST measurements.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Quantum on May 03, 2016, 11:06:41 PM
The high resolution model is predicting some colder air over the beaufort in the next 48 hours. I'd hope that we can get a covering of new ice (again I'd appreciate some insight as to the likelyhood of it happening at this time of year) to increase the albedo. The effect of the open water prevents the temperatures from lowering over the ice, with a quite impressive gradient visible.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpamola.um.maine.edu%2Ffcst_frames%2FHIRES-AK%2FAK-HIRES%2FT2%2F47.png&hash=cba4008ddd4d6c4886d495432513758a)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Neven on May 03, 2016, 11:14:20 PM
tomorrow a great workshop starts with a huge amount of interesting presentations: Polar Prediction Workshop (https://www.arcus.org/sipn/meetings/workshops/may-2016/agenda).

The presentations are going to be streamed and the stream will be available here (http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/video/livestream-2015-polar-prediction-workshop).

Things start tomorrow at 9:00am EDT, which is 15:00 o'clock CET, I believe.

I hope to catch some of those presentations. Nice follow-up to the stuff I saw at EGU.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Laurent on May 03, 2016, 11:15:49 PM
Believe it or not hycom predict that the Arctic Ice will start unstick from the land next week...
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortstrength_nowcast_anim30d.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortstrength_nowcast_anim30d.gif)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on May 03, 2016, 11:36:12 PM
Believe it or not hycom predict that the Arctic Ice will start unstick from the land next week...
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortstrength_nowcast_anim30d.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortstrength_nowcast_anim30d.gif)

If it does then the entire CAB may become rotational.  I don't believe this model, if it is true, this early and this severe, well. . .

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
the falcon cannot hear the falconer. . .
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on May 04, 2016, 01:02:11 AM
Okay.. from a quick look at EOSDIS. I warn you I am an amateur on ice and satellite images.

I was looking at the images of the Beaufort and noticed that there are big curved cracks extending towards Wrangle Island from the Anzhu islands that propagated roughly 1000km across the East Siberian sea towards Alaska from around the 29th April to today. The direction of separation is along the coast of Russian. Basically East to West (examining the cracks in detail give a good indication of the movement). It implies that these were opened by clockwise rotation.  There are chunks of ice in the cracks that are being rotated. There is one below, that was rotated through 10-15km by the motion on 2nd may, and moved about 15km in the last 24 hours, or around 17cm/s.

I'm a new observer.. Is my interpretation reasonable and would this support detachment seen above?


Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Nick_Naylor on May 04, 2016, 02:09:50 AM
Believe it or not hycom predict that the Arctic Ice will start unstick from the land next week...
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortstrength_nowcast_anim30d.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortstrength_nowcast_anim30d.gif)

If it does then the entire CAB may become rotational.  I don't believe this model, if it is true, this early and this severe, well. . .

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
the falcon cannot hear the falconer. . .

That would be extraordinary. However, HYCOM has predicted some spectacular events the last couple years that failed to materialize. Still, the model that called "wolf" can still be right now and then.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: magnamentis on May 04, 2016, 02:13:59 AM
Okay.. from a quick look at EOSDIS. I warn you I am an amateur on ice and satellite images.

I was looking at the images of the Beaufort and noticed that there are big curved cracks extending towards Wrangle Island from the Anzhu islands that propagated roughly 1000km across the East Siberian sea towards Alaska from around the 29th April to today. The direction of separation is along the coast of Russian. Basically East to West (examining the cracks in detail give a good indication of the movement). It implies that these were opened by clockwise rotation.  There are chunks of ice in the cracks that are being rotated. There is one below, that was rotated through 10-15km by the motion on 2nd may, and moved about 15km in the last 24 hours, or around 17cm/s.

I'm a new observer.. Is my interpretation reasonable and would this support detachment seen above?

if i'm not mistaken what you're talking about is the beaufort gyre which is one of the often discussed and mentioned topic in this thread, especially over the last 10-20 days. if you didn't do that already, reading back a bit will give you a quite complete picture as to what we're dealing with here.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on May 04, 2016, 03:01:31 AM
Okay.. from a quick look at EOSDIS. I warn you I am an amateur on ice and satellite images.

I was looking at the images of the Beaufort and noticed that there are big curved cracks extending towards Wrangle Island from the Anzhu islands that propagated roughly 1000km across the East Siberian sea towards Alaska from around the 29th April to today. The direction of separation is along the coast of Russian. Basically East to West (examining the cracks in detail give a good indication of the movement). It implies that these were opened by clockwise rotation.  There are chunks of ice in the cracks that are being rotated. There is one below, that was rotated through 10-15km by the motion on 2nd may, and moved about 15km in the last 24 hours, or around 17cm/s.

I'm a new observer.. Is my interpretation reasonable and would this support detachment seen above?

if i'm not mistaken what you're talking about is the beaufort gyre which is one of the often discussed and mentioned topic in this thread, especially over the last 10-20 days. if you didn't do that already, reading back a bit will give you a quite complete picture as to what we're dealing with here.

I was looking at the area between Wrangle Island and the Anzhu Islands in the East Siberian Sea. It seems that the whole sea is moving clockwise North of the cracking. The movement is in the same direction as the Beaufort, but from what I have read is a much larger extent than would be expected from the Gyre.

Yay! Figured out how to link it.. If you cycle backwards and forwards on days you can see the break up pretty clearly.

http://go.nasa.gov/1W7O12D (http://go.nasa.gov/1W7O12D)



Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: bbr2314 on May 04, 2016, 03:14:11 AM
DMI's model agrees with HYCOM which would seem to indicate something unprecedented is going to happen in the next few days. Should also be noted that all models have the first legitimate blowtorch of the season over the entire Pacific icepack from D5+.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Focean.dmi.dk%2Fanim%2Fplots%2Ficec.arc.121.png&hash=2263e5e6456542637aeb7a2a41ed714d)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: 6roucho on May 04, 2016, 04:54:22 AM
Believe it or not hycom predict that the Arctic Ice will start unstick from the land next week...
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortstrength_nowcast_anim30d.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortstrength_nowcast_anim30d.gif)

If it does then the entire CAB may become rotational.  I don't believe this model, if it is true, this early and this severe, well. . .

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
the falcon cannot hear the falconer. . .
That a very fine literary quote in this context, jai mitchell.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Csnavywx on May 04, 2016, 05:25:41 AM
GFS 18Z and EC 12Z runs commence widespread surface melting over the Pacific side (Beaufort and Chukchi Seas) in about a week.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: epiphyte on May 04, 2016, 06:28:48 AM
Believe it or not hycom predict that the Arctic Ice will start unstick from the land next week...
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortstrength_nowcast_anim30d.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortstrength_nowcast_anim30d.gif)

If it does then the entire CAB may become rotational.  I don't believe this model, if it is true, this early and this severe, well. . .

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
the falcon cannot hear the falconer. . .

 ...Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
    Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,


That is so apposite that it occurred to me as well to post it this morning - but I thought it would go unappreciated. I guess I was wrong about that!
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on May 04, 2016, 09:07:16 AM
Okay.. from a quick look at EOSDIS. I warn you I am an amateur on ice and satellite images.

I was looking at the images of the Beaufort and noticed that there are big curved cracks extending towards Wrangle Island from the Anzhu islands that propagated roughly 1000km across the East Siberian sea towards Alaska from around the 29th April to today. The direction of separation is along the coast of Russian. Basically East to West (examining the cracks in detail give a good indication of the movement). It implies that these were opened by clockwise rotation.  There are chunks of ice in the cracks that are being rotated. There is one below, that was rotated through 10-15km by the motion on 2nd may, and moved about 15km in the last 24 hours, or around 17cm/s.

I'm a new observer.. Is my interpretation reasonable and would this support detachment seen above?

Yes that is a crack that appeared in mid April and relieved the ice in that huge area in its tendency to rotate following the Gyre (although the displacement speed was much slower than that at Beaufort, as apparent from the drift maps too).

It was very clear from IR images, I will see if I can find any, on the mobile now. Bust rest assured there is no such a thing as "ice detachment" in the way implied in some comments here. Even if the whole Arctic rotates unison. It is not like a giant let loose from its chains. At any location, ice inertia is balanced by ocean dragging at the bottom, wind pulling at the top, pressure and shear forces at sides , and other forces. Gravity balanced too. It is not going to "fly away". ;-)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: abbottisgone on May 04, 2016, 10:26:16 AM
Believe it or not hycom predict that the Arctic Ice will start unstick from the land next week...
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortstrength_nowcast_anim30d.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortstrength_nowcast_anim30d.gif)

If it does then the entire CAB may become rotational.  I don't believe this model, if it is true, this early and this severe, well. . .

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
the falcon cannot hear the falconer. . .

 ...Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
    Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,


That is so apposite that it occurred to me as well to post it this morning - but I thought it would go unappreciated. I guess I was wrong about that!
Where are those words from or did you make them up?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: meddoc on May 04, 2016, 10:38:29 AM

"Yes that is a crack that appeared in mid April and relieved the ice in that huge area in its tendency to rotate following the Gyre (although the displacement speed was much slower than that at Beaufort, as apparent from the drift maps too).

It was very clear from IR images, I will see if I can find any, on the mobile now. Bust rest assured there is no such a thing as "ice detachment" in the way implied in some comments here. Even if the whole Arctic rotates unison. It is not like a giant let loose from its chains. At any location, ice inertia is balanced by ocean dragging at the bottom, wind pulling at the top, pressure and shear forces at sides , and other forces. Gravity balanced too. It is not going to "fly away". ;-)
"

And what about the possibility of winds, cyclones, storms sweeping the ice out of place into the warm waters of the Atlantic?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: 6roucho on May 04, 2016, 11:46:55 AM
Believe it or not hycom predict that the Arctic Ice will start unstick from the land next week...
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortstrength_nowcast_anim30d.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortstrength_nowcast_anim30d.gif)

If it does then the entire CAB may become rotational.  I don't believe this model, if it is true, this early and this severe, well. . .

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
the falcon cannot hear the falconer. . .

 ...Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
    Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,


That is so apposite that it occurred to me as well to post it this morning - but I thought it would go unappreciated. I guess I was wrong about that!
Where are those words from or did you make them up?
    Turning and turning in the widening gyre
     The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
     Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
     Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
     The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
     The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
     The best lack all conviction, while the worst
     Are full of passionate intensity.

    Surely some revelation is at hand;
     Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
     The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
     When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
     Troubles my sight: a waste of desert sand;
     A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
     A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
     Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
     Wind shadows of the indignant desert birds.

    The darkness drops again but now I know
     That twenty centuries of stony sleep
     Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
     And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
     Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

WB Yeats, the Second Coming
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: F.Tnioli on May 04, 2016, 12:05:37 PM
...
I have often wondered if the regular decline in arctic DMI temperatures that occurs between April 15 and May 15th each of the past 4 years (and right around that time) through 2009!  is in some way all or partially attributable to the shift in U.S. gasoline refineries production of summer blend gasoline that occurs in late march.

just a thought, another would be a shift in polar cell behavior as the mid-latitudes warms up and the increased solar melt-transpiration of snow leading to increased water vapor content in early spring. . .
May be both.

I'd also suspect "summer blend" of jet fuel, especially if they add extra "anti-corrosive" and other alluminium-containing additives to it. That and may be more passenger flights over the Arctic can add significant Al2O3 nano-scale particulate, akin to Welsbach seeding, thus slowing down the "normal" temperature increase.

Those and other negative feedbacks and alike are seemingly not enough to halt the death spiral, but are enoguh to slow it down somewhat, so far - whatever it is, post-2012, i mean.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: F.Tnioli on May 04, 2016, 01:13:14 PM
Okay.. from a quick look at EOSDIS. I warn you I am an amateur on ice and satellite images.

I was looking at the images of the Beaufort and noticed that there are big curved cracks extending towards Wrangle Island from the Anzhu islands that propagated roughly 1000km across the East Siberian sea towards Alaska from around the 29th April to today. The direction of separation is along the coast of Russian. Basically East to West (examining the cracks in detail give a good indication of the movement). It implies that these were opened by clockwise rotation.  There are chunks of ice in the cracks that are being rotated. There is one below, that was rotated through 10-15km by the motion on 2nd may, and moved about 15km in the last 24 hours, or around 17cm/s.

I'm a new observer.. Is my interpretation reasonable and would this support detachment seen above?

if i'm not mistaken what you're talking about is the beaufort gyre which is one of the often discussed and mentioned topic in this thread, especially over the last 10-20 days. if you didn't do that already, reading back a bit will give you a quite complete picture as to what we're dealing with here.

I was looking at the area between Wrangle Island and the Anzhu Islands in the East Siberian Sea. It seems that the whole sea is moving clockwise North of the cracking. The movement is in the same direction as the Beaufort, but from what I have read is a much larger extent than would be expected from the Gyre.

Yay! Figured out how to link it.. If you cycle backwards and forwards on days you can see the break up pretty clearly.

http://go.nasa.gov/1W7O12D (http://go.nasa.gov/1W7O12D)
Yep, i can see that too. Tried to estimate the speed of the movement, appears to be a bit higher than previsouly estimated, if my pixel hunting can mean anything, that is:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs32.postimg.org%2F7uk3eatyd%2FArctic_ice_pack_starts_rotating.png&hash=842bf4c206f46b6c4b9983dd91ff2dd6)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on May 04, 2016, 01:45:30 PM
...
I have often wondered if the regular decline in arctic DMI temperatures that occurs between April 15 and May 15th each of the past 4 years (and right around that time) through 2009!  is in some way all or partially attributable to the shift in U.S. gasoline refineries production of summer blend gasoline that occurs in late march.

just a thought, another would be a shift in polar cell behavior as the mid-latitudes warms up and the increased solar melt-transpiration of snow leading to increased water vapor content in early spring. . .
May be both.

I'd also suspect "summer blend" of jet fuel, especially if they add extra "anti-corrosive" and other alluminium-containing additives to it. That and may be more passenger flights over the Arctic can add significant Al2O3 nano-scale particulate, akin to Welsbach seeding, thus slowing down the "normal" temperature increase.

Those and other negative feedbacks and alike are seemingly not enough to halt the death spiral, but are enoguh to slow it down somewhat, so far - whatever it is, post-2012, i mean.

My reaction to US gasoline was that was extremely unlikely to be a factor. Maybe if Canada and Russia were doing the same....

These ideas seem rather optimistic for geo-engineering.

Polar cell changes, quite possible given what little I know.

I would have thought a more likely explanation might derive from snow cover changing albedo. We now have more snow because of warmer temperatures and therefore atmosphere holding more water. 2007 and 2010 had low snow cover. 2010 didn't snow that negative anomaly but 2007 did. Still maybe some part of an explanation coming from this?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on May 04, 2016, 02:18:07 PM
Major development on 03 May along the lines of what Hycom was saying, the Beaufort Gyre clutch gaining some traction on the CAA ice. The first close-up shows crack initiation just above Prince Patrick island, the other close-up is in the 'upper right' corner of the Gyre. This is a rather abrupt departure from the trend of the last few days.

We've seen similar events before, with detachment all the way past Ellesmere Island. The significance, if any, depends on what happens with the wind in coming weeks.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: F.Tnioli on May 04, 2016, 02:26:12 PM
My reaction to US gasoline was that was extremely unlikely to be a factor. Maybe if Canada and Russia were doing the same....

These ideas seem rather optimistic for geo-engineering.

Polar cell changes, quite possible given what little I know.

I would have thought a more likely explanation might derive from snow cover changing albedo. We now have more snow because of warmer temperatures and therefore atmosphere holding more water. 2007 and 2010 had low snow cover. 2010 didn't snow that negative anomaly but 2007 did. Still maybe some part of an explanation coming from this?
"Optimistic" is an understatement, short-term, as Lowell Wood (at least) once have put it about Al2O3 seeding, "it will sure work", but "it's like riding on necks of our grand-kids" - mitigating current problems this way "for a while" creates massive danger for some ~40...50 years later and forwards. Still, it's my understanding that at least some significant efforts to apply additional particulate cooling into the athmosphere (jet cruising altitudes) are likely being done for a while now, and it's good to keep it in mind as one of probable factors affecting present-day melt seasons in the Arctic and related events.

As for "we now have more snow" - in the air, sure. On the ground? I don't think so. Moe of snow falls down, yes, but the increase of snow melting speed more than compensates for it. The https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global-snow/201505 (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global-snow/201505) tells us decade trend for May is -0,86*10^6 km2, for April is -0.48*10^6 km2 lately. I can't call this "we have more snow" if we talk albedo. So quite the opposite, i think the albedo is in favor for higher temperatures during spring months, in general, - not lower. Other factors exist which produce relatively low temperatures _despite_ this trend of decreasing snow cover, and factors powerful enough to overcome this substantial albedo drop in Spring because of snow cover reduction.

Perhaps clouds. Yeah, when not sure, blame clouds. Can't go wrong with this one, hehe. :D
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on May 04, 2016, 02:57:39 PM
Yes, you are right even trend for March snow cover is downward. Snow depth near the Arctic ocean looks like it may be upward but even if it is through April I can't see that having enough effect by albedo. Doubt there are significant further effects even if melting more snow does have an effect of cooling air temps. Sorry about that, got the timing completely wrong on that one.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on May 04, 2016, 02:59:49 PM
Here is a couple of views of the cracks mentioned above in the Wrangel - Anzhu island area for 27 April to 04 May 2016. The latter date has a 600ms pause.

Looking at two recognizable and persistent features at 125 m resolution, 3rd animation, it can be seen the ice continues to crack under torsional stress but showing very little net motion (especially after adjustment for widening leads). In particular it is not co-rotating with the Beaufort Gyre which circles almost a degree per day over this time frame.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: plinius on May 04, 2016, 03:22:13 PM
Yes, you are right even trend for March snow cover is downward. Snow depth near the Arctic ocean looks like it may be upward but even if it is through April I can't see that having enough effect by albedo. Doubt there are significant further effects even if melting more snow does have an effect of cooling air temps. Sorry about that, got the timing completely wrong on that one.

I once figured that the albedo effect of retreating snow cover on heat flow is magnitudes larger than the melt enthalpy of the bits of additional snow. Just use the fact that just 100 Watts melt about 1kg of ice per hour, or put on the square meter, about 2.6 cm water equivalent per day (or something like 15cm of snow cover).
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: pccp82 on May 04, 2016, 03:32:21 PM
It's way OT for this thread and perhaps more in line with consequences....but I would like to call to attention the wildfire that has forced the evacuation of 60,000 people out of Fort McMurray in Alberta Canada.

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: plinius on May 04, 2016, 03:45:05 PM
It's way OT for this thread and perhaps more in line with consequences....but I would like to call to attention the wildfire that has forced the evacuation of 60,000 people out of Fort McMurray in Alberta Canada.

By the way - as we are on peripherals. It's quite interesting to watch the Siberian rivers. The upper parts of the Lena valley have thawed, though the stream seems to still have an intact ice cover. However, the Ob has the spring flood marching towards the Kara a good week earlier than the already early last year.
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%28hidden%29,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%28hidden%29,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels%28hidden%29,Reference_Features%28hidden%29,Coastlines&t=2016-05-04&v=1936628.6454543862,769325.78307069,3284212.6454543862,1461549.78307069 (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%28hidden%29,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%28hidden%29,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels%28hidden%29,Reference_Features%28hidden%29,Coastlines&t=2016-05-04&v=1936628.6454543862,769325.78307069,3284212.6454543862,1461549.78307069)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on May 04, 2016, 04:15:30 PM
...
I have often wondered if the regular decline in arctic DMI temperatures that occurs between April 15 and May 15th each of the past 4 years (and right around that time) through 2009!  is in some way all or partially attributable to the shift in U.S. gasoline refineries production of summer blend gasoline that occurs in late march.

just a thought, another would be a shift in polar cell behavior as the mid-latitudes warms up and the increased solar melt-transpiration of snow leading to increased water vapor content in early spring. . .
May be both.

I'd also suspect "summer blend" of jet fuel, especially if they add extra "anti-corrosive" and other alluminium-containing additives to it. That and may be more passenger flights over the Arctic can add significant Al2O3 nano-scale particulate, akin to Welsbach seeding, thus slowing down the "normal" temperature increase.

Those and other negative feedbacks and alike are seemingly not enough to halt the death spiral, but are enoguh to slow it down somewhat, so far - whatever it is, post-2012, i mean.

My reaction to US gasoline was that was extremely unlikely to be a factor. Maybe if Canada and Russia were doing the same....

These ideas seem rather optimistic for geo-engineering.

Polar cell changes, quite possible given what little I know.

I would have thought a more likely explanation might derive from snow cover changing albedo. We now have more snow because of warmer temperatures and therefore atmosphere holding more water. 2007 and 2010 had low snow cover. 2010 didn't snow that negative anomaly but 2007 did. Still maybe some part of an explanation coming from this?

It isn't just California or the U.S. it is the entire northern hemisphere, it is a function of lowering the evaporation rate of gasoline under moderately warmer (summer) temperatures

http://www.platts.com/news-feature/2014/oil/europe-oil-q1/gasoline (http://www.platts.com/news-feature/2014/oil/europe-oil-q1/gasoline)

Quote
On March 13, the discount of Eurobob gasoline barges to the front-month swap was assessed by Platts at a 12-month high on the back of ample supply of winter-specification material.

The widening of the contango in the physical market was the result of the transition to the more-expensive low-RVP summer-specification gasoline at a time of remaining ample stocks of high-RVP winter-specification material ahead of the formal transition to summer gasoline on April 1.

interestingly, it really involves using more (or less) butane

http://www.arabnews.com/high-butane-refiners-celebrate-winter%E2%80%99s-arrival (http://www.arabnews.com/high-butane-refiners-celebrate-winter%E2%80%99s-arrival)

Quote
The swing is equivalent to almost 500,000 barrels of butane per day between Jun/July/Aug and Nov/Dec/Jan, roughly 3-4 percent of total inputs to US refineries.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: AmbiValent on May 04, 2016, 04:27:06 PM
What are you aiming at? Do you think that effect is caused by carbon dioxide, by soot or by something completely different?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on May 04, 2016, 04:30:12 PM
it was just a thought. sorry for bringing it up.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 04, 2016, 05:23:00 PM
Here is bad news from NSIDC:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fnsidc.org%2Farcticseaicenews%2Ffiles%2F2016%2F05%2FASINA_May_Fig4a.png&hash=6736cf6218f7d3cf7622f22a33c179ab)

Courtesy: National Snow and Ice Data Center, courtesy M. Tschudi, C. Fowler, J. Maslanik, R. Stewart/University of Colorado Boulder; W. Meier/NASA Cryospheric Sciences

A comparison for 2011 to 2015, courtesy NSIDC:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fnsidc.org%2Farcticseaicenews%2Ffiles%2F2016%2F05%2Ffig4b.png&hash=4bea476c366845e3bcc9efab7ecea062)

Age category, new measurements show a bigger number of FYI, courtesy National Snow and Ice Data Center, courtesy W. Meier/NASA Cryospheric Sciences :

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fnsidc.org%2Farcticseaicenews%2Ffiles%2F2016%2F05%2F2015_age_extent_plot.png&hash=03e661e14cbfb0e3831135616d86952f)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on May 04, 2016, 05:44:48 PM
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/)

is the link for above.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on May 04, 2016, 05:51:49 PM
tomorrow a great workshop starts with a huge amount of interesting presentations: Polar Prediction Workshop (https://www.arcus.org/sipn/meetings/workshops/may-2016/agenda).

The presentations are going to be streamed and the stream will be available here (http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/video/livestream-2015-polar-prediction-workshop).

Things start tomorrow at 9:00am EDT, which is 15:00 o'clock CET, I believe.

I hope to catch some of those presentations. Nice follow-up to the stuff I saw at EGU.

This is supposed to start streaming in 20 minutes a presentation at the link above, though it is not currently feeding on my computer.  I hope to see this presentation:

Impact of Aerosols on Arctic Sea Ice Extent Prediction

Quote
Marie-Éve Gagné, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada , Marie-Eve.Gagne@canada.ca

This study considers the influence of both stratospheric and tropospheric aerosol changes on Arctic sea ice extent on interannual to decadal timescales. While it is well-known that accounting for volcanic aerosol increases the skill of interannual to decadal predictions of surface temperature, its impact on sea ice prediction has not been widely considered. Here we analyze the impact of historical volcanoes on Arctic sea ice extent using a large ensemble of 20th-century climate simulations, and demonstrate that an increase in Arctic sea ice extent following these eruptions persists for up to a decade. Even though we do not find a detectable response in observations, these results suggest that inclusion of the effect in seasonal to interannual predictions of sea ice extent should improve skill on these timescales. Secondly, while the influence of future greenhouse gas changes on sea ice extent is known to be important for predictions on decadal timescales, the influence of projected tropospheric aerosol changes has received less attention. We examine the simulated response of Arctic sea ice to projected aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions changes under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, and show that projected aerosol emissions decreases drive approximately 20-30% of the projected decrease in annual mean Arctic sea ice extent on decadal timescales.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: crandles on May 04, 2016, 05:57:43 PM
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/video/livestream-2015-polar-prediction-workshop (http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/video/livestream-2015-polar-prediction-workshop)

just turned back on?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on May 04, 2016, 06:42:25 PM

"Yes that is a crack that appeared in mid April and relieved the ice in that huge area in its tendency to rotate following the Gyre (although the displacement speed was much slower than that at Beaufort, as apparent from the drift maps too).

It was very clear from IR images, I will see if I can find any, on the mobile now. Bust rest assured there is no such a thing as "ice detachment" in the way implied in some comments here. Even if the whole Arctic rotates unison. It is not like a giant let loose from its chains. At any location, ice inertia is balanced by ocean dragging at the bottom, wind pulling at the top, pressure and shear forces at sides , and other forces. Gravity balanced too. It is not going to "fly away". ;-)
"

And what about the possibility of winds, cyclones, storms sweeping the ice out of place into the warm waters of the Atlantic?

Talking about possibilities, an off-topic factoid but at least evident within the modern understanding of physics: Did you know that there are more than 99% chances that any breath you take contains at least one atom expelled by Julius Caesar's "you too Brutus" last breath?

More on topic, for what is worth, I attach a gif showing Worldview IR images, 16 to 20 of April, of an ESS subtle crack that was created when the rotational motion started in April. Not sure if it is the same revealed now. The crack is not so apparent, but it is a huge arc dividing the static ice from that in motion
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on May 04, 2016, 07:14:01 PM
seaicesailor, you should not call these images "IR" they are thermal radiation but in the microwave part of the spectrum. Intensities are lower which reduces the resolution of these images below those of IR images and the emissivity of water and ice is different at these wavelengths, which makes them used for determining the AMSR-2 ice concentration maps. The structure and surface conditions of the ice also affects emitted intensity so interpretation is tricky but they show movement of the ice even when obscured in visible frequency images.

Nullschool http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-43.85,79.94,512 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-43.85,79.94,512)
shows a forcast of a very changed wind pattern by the 8th May. Attached are 1000hPa winds because they show force driving the ice more clearly (I think).
This could open a lead along the north coast of Ellesmere island and narrow the openings at the New Siberian islands.

I agree that opening cracks at this time doesn't make ice disappear but moves it elsewhere or pushes up (and down) ridges within the ice.
The interesting question is what this does to later melting, I expect increased absorption of incoming solar radiation into open water. But it could also reduce the formation of meltponds.
The paper you linked some time ago ( I am still pondering the issue of snow sublimation) mentioned snow drifting into leads. When snow drifts across uninterrupted ice cover what is removed in one place is deposited elsewhere and can be shifted again. If snow drifts into an open lead it may aid the formation of new ice but it will not add to snow cover elsewhere. How much is that a factor in  the effect of cracks on conditioning of the ice?
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: seaicesailor on May 04, 2016, 07:52:33 PM
seaicesailor, you should not call these images "IR" they are thermal radiation but in the microwave part of the spectrum. Intensities are lower which reduces the resolution of these images below those of IR images and the emissivity of water and ice is different at these wavelengths, which makes them used for determining the AMSR-2 ice concentration maps.

Thanks for the correction Andreas
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: 6roucho on May 04, 2016, 08:01:21 PM
Okay.. from a quick look at EOSDIS. I warn you I am an amateur on ice and satellite images.

I was looking at the images of the Beaufort and noticed that there are big curved cracks extending towards Wrangle Island from the Anzhu islands that propagated roughly 1000km across the East Siberian sea towards Alaska from around the 29th April to today. The direction of separation is along the coast of Russian. Basically East to West (examining the cracks in detail give a good indication of the movement). It implies that these were opened by clockwise rotation.  There are chunks of ice in the cracks that are being rotated. There is one below, that was rotated through 10-15km by the motion on 2nd may, and moved about 15km in the last 24 hours, or around 17cm/s.

I'm a new observer.. Is my interpretation reasonable and would this support detachment seen above?

Yes that is a crack that appeared in mid April and relieved the ice in that huge area in its tendency to rotate following the Gyre (although the displacement speed was much slower than that at Beaufort, as apparent from the drift maps too).

It was very clear from IR images, I will see if I can find any, on the mobile now. Bust rest assured there is no such a thing as "ice detachment" in the way implied in some comments here. Even if the whole Arctic rotates unison. It is not like a giant let loose from its chains. At any location, ice inertia is balanced by ocean dragging at the bottom, wind pulling at the top, pressure and shear forces at sides , and other forces. Gravity balanced too. It is not going to "fly away". ;-)

I doubt anyone on here thinks that! The prospect of a wider polar gyre has been discussed in detail before. It's that even the limited interpretation is alarming in context.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: A-Team on May 04, 2016, 09:21:40 PM
Quite about IR vs microwave and a nice explanation why this matters.
Quote
1000hPa winds because they show force driving the ice more clearly (I think).
As explained earlier, here you want nullschool's 1000hPa 'instantaneous wind power density' WPD map, wind3 is what moves the floes of ice (freeboard ~turbine blade), not gentle zephyrs of wind1. They are both derived primarily from air pressure reanalysis/forecast, not measured in situ to any extent.
 
I've noticed no one has been posting time series of nullschool, presumably because it's a total  nuisance layering up screenshots: the slightest mouse movement throws off the nullschool alignment (it has browser page-back but it could be several).

We would further like the nullschool images to be at at the same map scale, projection, and land mass orientation as the WorldView satellite time series, the scalable but non-rotating EPSG 3143, NSIDC's polar stereographic Greenland-down 70º main parallel.

There are two easy ways to script out an animated nullschool overlay of WorldView at maximal forum-compatible size of 700x700.

The first trick is to carefully precondition the view in nullschool's AE projection (azimuthal equidistant). This projection defaults exactly to a north pole-centered -45º rotation relative to rigid WorldView which surprisingly aligns indistinguishably to EPSG 3143 on the scale of the Arctic Ocean.

Mousing over the screen (never clicking) enlarges the scale without introducing a rotation, best done on a blank advanced date that has 'no data'. Note the url actually changes in real time as you mouse which can be co-calibrated with WorldView to match scales.

The second trick is to put the mouse down and use keyboard commands instead (below) to cycle through the date range build layers in Gimp (respectively stacks in ImageJ) via whole-window screenshots (command option shift 4 space on a Mac), switching apps back and forth (with command tab/tilde).

Although it takes only ~3-4 minutes for a 10-day time series, including the chained rotation, cropping, a round or two of contrast enhancement, pause-building, frame rate testing and uploading to forum, it pays to turn on keystroke recording to add other nullschool views like temperature.

One frame of nullschool tracers suffices to disambiguate wind direction; there's a keyboard command to turn them off. As noted, the palette has a linear decomposition to grayscale as the L layer of L.a.b color space. This allows replacement of the original ugly palette by arbitrary contoured indexed color which in turn enables quantitation or GIS layer arithmetic interaction.

The second approach starts with an easy tear-down of the starting date's dynamic url into a flat file database of its building blocks. No scripting: build additional dates and incremental views with 'fill-down' spreadsheet commands (kept as template), the new urls are layered with 'Open Location' in Gimp.

Repeating with the same dates in Worldview, the two animations can be butted side-by-side with 'filmstrip' and 'guide-cropping'. In the case of wind WPD, the suspected dominant contributor to daily variation in floe displacement, it makes sense to stagger the times, ie to anticipate WorldView dated movement. The former are furnished at 3 hour intervals (8x per day); the latter are wedge-shaped tiles from different orbital passes.

I will be offline traveling for the next few weeks and will post some examples later
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: DavidR on May 04, 2016, 11:32:15 PM

I have often wondered if the regular decline in arctic DMI temperatures that occurs between April 15 and May 15th each of the past 4 years (and right around that time) through 2009!  is in some way all or partially attributable to the shift in U.S. gasoline refineries production of summer blend gasoline that occurs in late march.

just a thought, another would be a shift in polar cell behavior as the mid-latitudes warms up and the increased solar melt-transpiration of snow leading to increased water vapor content in early spring. . .
I think the answer to this is a very prosaic issue, weather. Summer temperatures tend to  be fairly stable but from sept -> may temperatures in the north typically jump around quite a bit. Winter temperatures are now typically 3-4 degrees warmer than the average so they appear 'warm' even in cold spells. However by April / May  temperatues are rising rapidly and a decline for a week or so plunges the temperatures below average.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 04, 2016, 11:57:07 PM
Keep in mind that with the previous detachment events north of CAA over the past couple of years, the thickest and oldest ice is no longer adjacent to the islands. The bulk of the ice adjacent to the shores are thinner and no older than 2nd year ice.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: jai mitchell on May 05, 2016, 03:42:07 AM
Amazing

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: NeilT on May 05, 2016, 04:44:58 AM
Dramatic

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-5uh2GQcrVRg/VyqzdFSs95I/AAAAAAAAFBk/zX2vsUmRRg02FYTskHMA3-WpF0m3k_JDACCo/s640/dramatic.PNG)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Watching_from_Canberra on May 05, 2016, 05:31:18 AM
Have I misunderstood today's EOSDIS image?  Are there cracks in the ice from Svalbard almost across the pole to this new crack show in Jai Mitchell's post above?  See attached.  Or are those dark lines something else?

Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Watching_from_Canberra on May 05, 2016, 05:41:16 AM
Sorry - should have included lat/long lines...
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: bbr2314 on May 05, 2016, 06:13:41 AM
 very bad, gif attached/click to animate (may 3 vs 4)

should add that first glimpse of images from 5/5 show the crack now splitting/expanding and almost meeting the ones originating from the Russian/ATL sides, imagery later today should be pretty crazy

& if models are right, the western CAB is going to shatter further this week, with area decrease steepening across Beaufort in a very dramatic way
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: bbr2314 on May 05, 2016, 07:22:01 AM
The models are now showing catastrophic potential through D10 for the sea ice. The blowtorch begins around 120 hours on the GFS.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tropicaltidbits.com%2Fanalysis%2Fmodels%2Fgfs%2F2016050500%2Fgfs_T2m_namer_21.png&hash=3fe5a8d780039e94ca99fae1c66a58ad)

The blowtorch ends up covering over half the Arctic Ocean by D10. Insane.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tropicaltidbits.com%2Fanalysis%2Fmodels%2Fgfs%2F2016050500%2Fgfs_T2m_namer_41.png&hash=838b51ffb690846758a5087d727d80c5)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tropicaltidbits.com%2Fanalysis%2Fmodels%2Fgfs%2F2016050500%2Fgfs_T2ma_nhem_39.png&hash=4c501dba7183343e51c5f632eba4c999)

This is truly insane.

If there's any year that could be a black swan from several angles, it seems like 2016 could be it. The fracturing we have already seen and the decline in snowcover over Alaska (combined with a very minimal Pacific pack) look to allow an unprecedented belch of heat (for this time of the yr) access to what may well be the entire Arctic Ocean when all is said and done.

While this will be bad for the thick pack on the Russian side it will be truly devastating to what's left in the Beaufort & the other areas on the Pac side that already have open water. I would think area numbers will begin to plummet at this point -- and worse, the open water means a repeat of the GAC from 2012 becomes more likely, especially as it absorbs all the springtime radiation sea ice would normally reflect.

This is quite possibly our black swan/blue Arctic year.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Andreas T on May 05, 2016, 09:16:16 AM
Have I misunderstood today's EOSDIS image?  Are there cracks in the ice from Svalbard almost across the pole to this new crack show in Jai Mitchell's post above?  See attached.  Or are those dark lines something else?
cracks can be seen in this microwave image from the 5th of April. the difference is that temperatures are now higher over the whole arctic and cracks which open freeze over more slowly so they now show up in the visible wavelengths.
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 05, 2016, 09:53:56 AM
Snow cover anomalies HAVE plummeted.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FvIvO0Ar.jpg&hash=8427e302e8d9be16b63e77b9e998fc0a)


April was the lowest April on record.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FcuOngJZ.jpg&hash=3a42b764afd765f3df1cb74cabbdeee9)
Title: Re: The 2016 melting season
Post by: F.Tnioli on May 05, 2016, 10:19:21 AM

I have often wondered if the regular decline in arctic DMI temperatures that occurs between April 15 and May 15th each of the past 4 years (and right around that time) through 2009!  is in some way all or partially attributable to the shift in U.S. gasoline refineries production of summer blend gasoline that occurs in late march.

just a thought, another would be a shift in polar cell behavior as the mid-latitudes warms up and the increased solar melt-transpiration of snow leading to increased water vapor content in early spring. . .
I think the answer to this is a very prosaic issue, weather. Summer temperatures tend to  be fairly stable but from sept -> may temperatures in the north typically jump around quite a bit. Winter temperatures are now typically 3-4 degrees warmer than the average so they appear 'warm' even in cold spells. However by April / May  temperatues are rising rapidly and a decline for a week or so plunges the temperatures below average.
Possible, but not very likely. There is "normal" or even a bit "delayed" temperature increase trend lately, instead of expected "things should get warmer sooner" for spring time, out of general Arctic amplification. If it'd be a single year, sure thing, "it's weather" would be most appealing. Or even two or three years. But when it's a trend, "i