Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Science => Topic started by: crandles on May 16, 2016, 09:29:13 PM

Title: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: crandles on May 16, 2016, 09:29:13 PM
Data available at
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html)
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thead
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 16, 2016, 09:42:12 PM
I voted for "Not even a single day"; but per the attached Climate Central plot, I will admit that in Sept 2016 it is conceivable that one daily value might drop below 400ppm; but I still doubt it.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thead
Post by: crandles on May 16, 2016, 09:43:06 PM
Not many super El Nino year to collect reliable information, esp when they can end at different times of the year. This year could end a little sooner and more abruptly than 82/3 and 97/8. Still I get impression CO2 tends to fall rather slowly from May to Sept after super El Nino years.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thead
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 17, 2016, 08:03:42 AM
Ah, new poll. Thank you. Voted for 'not even a single day' but this isn't well based. I'm assuming the weather deviations by el nino will interfere with the physiology of plants so they won't immeditely be able to respond to the higher levels of co2. As El Nino years are not the normal years I'm assuming the evolution has preconditioned plants to work their best at other sorts of weather patterns. This goes of course only to plants that aren't cultivated so might well be wrong over the response of plantlife.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thead
Post by: TerryM on May 17, 2016, 08:29:04 AM
I voted in the lowest box as I feel that this ship has sailed. I don't expect our species to ever see 400 again.
Terry
BTW - excellent graph ASLR, hope to see follow-ups.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thead
Post by: DoomInTheUK on May 17, 2016, 09:49:19 AM
I went for never too. It will probably be close in September, but only for a day or two, and then that's it. 400+ for as long as we are capable of measuring it.

Yep excellent graph ASLR. Tick, VG.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thead
Post by: theoldinsane on May 17, 2016, 04:01:06 PM
This is not only a "once in a lifetime" Thead, it is a "once in the human race" Thead.

But please, I do not want a change of the spelling in the headline. It is a memorable thing I never will forget and the misspelling will help me to remember this historical moment (although it is only happens to be a number among all the other numbers) Beautiful  :P

BTW, I voted for the second lowest. (Daily but not weekly or monthly)
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 20, 2016, 09:41:01 PM
Mauna Loa is in the news again:

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/carbon-dioxide-levels-jump-record-amount-due-el-39235953 (http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/carbon-dioxide-levels-jump-record-amount-due-el-39235953)

Extract: "The amount of heat-trapping carbon dioxide in the air jumped by the biggest amount on record last month, a rise amplified by El Nino, scientists say.
Carbon dioxide levels increased by 4.16 parts per million in April compared to a year earlier, according to readings at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. Until this year, the biggest increase was 3.7 ppm. Records go back to 1950."
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 21, 2016, 10:01:26 PM
Keeling's opinion:  "I think we're essentially over [400 ppm] for good."

Atmospheric CO2 May Have Topped 400 PPM Permanently
Quote
Just three years ago this month, the carbon dioxide monitoring station atop Hawaii's Mauna Loa reached a significant milestone: the first measurement of CO2 concentrations that exceeded the benchmark of 400 parts per million (ppm). Now, they may never again dip below it.

As CO2 levels once again approach their annual apex, they have reached astonishing heights. Concentrations in recent weeks have edged close to 410 ppm, thanks in part to a push from an exceptionally strong El Niño.

But it is the emissions from human activities that are by far the main driver of the inexorable climb of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. That trend, in turn, is driving the steady rise of global temperatures, which have set record after record in recent months.

Those CO2 levels will soon begin to drop toward their annual minimum as spring triggers the collective inhale of trees and other plant life. But because of the remarkable heights reached this year, the fall minimum, unlike recent years, may not dip below the 400-ppm mark at Mauna Loa.

"I think we're essentially over for good," Ralph Keeling, the director of the Mauna Loa CO2 program at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, said.
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/18052016/atmospheric-co2-carbon-dioxide-400-ppm-climate-change-keeling-curve (http://insideclimatenews.org/news/18052016/atmospheric-co2-carbon-dioxide-400-ppm-climate-change-keeling-curve)
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 22, 2016, 04:30:16 PM
The week, way back, in May 8 - 14, 2016, had 407.84 ppm of CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory. The week, further away in ancient times, in May 8 - 14, 2015, had 404.83 ppm of CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory. The week, in the previous historical period, in May 8 - 14, 2006, had 385.12 ppm of CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory. Those of you who have been taught to calculate, since the government cuts in education, may observe the rise in CO2 if you are following the normal method of calculating the years, that is, you add one each time sun has passed the perigee, and not follow the cult that waits for the eventual destruction of West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and which calculates this to be the year 87. (Sorry, I slipped off the science in there)
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 23, 2016, 05:44:43 PM
Per the attached NOAA image issued today showing the daily Mauna Loa CO2 value thru May 22 2016, we may have reached, or are near, the May peak value for 2016 at 408.97ppm:
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: solartim27 on May 23, 2016, 08:02:21 PM
And it's just going up faster and faster.  I'm curious what this years average increase will be, and if the yearly average will ever go below 2 again.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 23, 2016, 08:06:40 PM
That should be it, thank you ASRL. Now to see how the plants will manage to absorb the stuff that's in and on the ground and the extra bit humanity has released from the long-period storage of dark places of the earth system.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 27, 2016, 06:12:31 AM
For the week of May 15 - 21, 2016 the number for CO2 was 407.29 ppm, 3.24 ppm more than 1 Year Ago and 22.08 more that 10 Years Ago. Oh what's the point in devising clever ways to express the same thing?? The smoothed top value for Mauna Loa was on about the same day as usual, I didn't bother to calculate it.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: crandles on May 29, 2016, 05:50:49 PM
Week beginning on May 22, 2016:     408.31 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:     403.77 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     384.68 ppm

Another big weekly increase of 4.54ppm on a year ago. I think that is 3rd highest annual rise (weekly data) after Sept 1998 rise of 4.67 and 4.59 of 6 weeks ago.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Pmt111500 on June 11, 2016, 06:57:13 AM
CO2 at Mauna Loa :
Last Week, May 29 - June 4, 2016 : 407.53 ppm lots above the concentration
1 Year Ago, May 29 - June 4, 2015 : 403.37 ppm and even more lots above the concentration
10 Years Ago, May 29 - June 4, 2006 : 384.69 ppm .

Apparently, while El Nino is over in the ocean the atmosphere still has lots of excess of the ghg. All the trees here are still not in full leaf, so even they'll drop the amount somewhat. The two harvests the soils are capable of in many parts of earth won't be limited by carbon. that much is certain.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 14, 2016, 02:11:12 AM
This will come as a surprise to no one on this Forum.  :'(  But perhaps it will help others to understand the seriousness of the crisis we face.

The atmosphere has hit a grim milestone — and scientists say we’ll never go back ‘within our lifetimes’
Quote
Scientists who measure and forecast the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere said Monday that we may have passed a key turning point. Humans walking the Earth today will probably never live to see carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere once again fall below a level of 400 parts per million (ppm), at least when measured at the iconic Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, where the longest global record of Co2 has been compiled.

“Our forecast supports the suggestion that the Mauna Loa record will never again show CO2 concentrations below the symbolic 400 ppm within our lifetimes,” write the researchers, led by Richard Betts of the U.K. Met Office’s Hadley Center, in Nature Climate Change. The study was conducted with colleagues from the Hadley Centre and Ralph Keeling of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, Calif.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/06/13/the-atmosphere-has-crossed-a-grim-milestone-and-scientists-say-well-never-go-back-within-our-lifetimes/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/06/13/the-atmosphere-has-crossed-a-grim-milestone-and-scientists-say-well-never-go-back-within-our-lifetimes/)
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: charles_oil on June 14, 2016, 02:25:02 AM
UK Met office news alerts about C02

13 June 2016 - The rising concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide has passed a symbolic threshold early due to the fastest annual increase on record

The human-caused rise in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is being given an extra boost this year by the natural climate phenomena of El Niño say climate scientists in a paper published in today's edition of the journal: Nature Climate Change. As a result, 2016 will be the first year with concentrations above 400 parts per million (ppm) all year round in the iconic Mauna Loa carbon dioxide record........... Rest at:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2016/MaunaLoaCO2_2016 (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2016/MaunaLoaCO2_2016)
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Steven on June 14, 2016, 08:23:59 PM
The atmosphere has hit a grim milestone — and scientists say we’ll never go back ‘within our lifetimes’
...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/06/13/the-atmosphere-has-crossed-a-grim-milestone-and-scientists-say-well-never-go-back-within-our-lifetimes/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/06/13/the-atmosphere-has-crossed-a-grim-milestone-and-scientists-say-well-never-go-back-within-our-lifetimes/)

Interesting article. 

Here are some quotes from the paper (Betts et al., pdf-file here (http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3063.epdf?shared_access_token=BTVQL-gguaMaF0piJk5VgtRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0Ov0S-tUrFz0ty_0hOOoNv5V5ZnHvZnP2CIvLcmhze9WW7iyqHTphNuByInChAzSMysh0odOSjs9Z2_dhNwr9OA7LIjtMXvG7x7_Qb2_O7VcK47XSxSOe9wAI2klj0_b-w%3D)):


Quote
we present a
forecast, made in October 2015, of the CO2
concentrations throughout 2016

...

We predict
the monthly mean CO2 concentration
at Mauna Loa to remain above 400 ppm
even in its annual minimum in September,
which would not have been expected
without the 2015–2016 El Niño.

...

Assuming stationarity in the distribution
of daily values around the monthly mean,
the lowest daily CO2 concentration at
Mauna Loa could be between 399.45 and
401.05 ppm. Therefore the daily values
will be most likely to stay above 400 ppm,
although values slightly below remain a
small possibility.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Pmt111500 on June 16, 2016, 06:25:34 AM
Period Week Atmospheric CO2
Last Week June 5 - 11, 2016 406.86 ppm
1 Year Ago June 5 - 11, 2015 403.30 ppm
10 Years Ago June 5 - 11, 2006 384.44 ppm

Ahem, the ocean has again started absorbing the stuff near Mauna Loa, hooray for the end of El Nino. (To give the most cursory explanation to the drop in the rate of increase looking the week to week numbers)
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: crandles on June 19, 2016, 08:24:35 PM
Quote
Week beginning on June 12, 2016:     407.20 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:     402.42 ppm
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html)

Increase on a year ago of 4.78 is a record amount.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: crandles on August 07, 2016, 05:05:54 PM
Week beginning on July 31, 2016:     403.47 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:     398.43 ppm

increase 5.04 over 1 years per weekly data is a new record.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 07, 2016, 07:15:02 PM
Week beginning on July 31, 2016:     403.47 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:     398.43 ppm

increase 5.04 over 1 years per weekly data is a new record.

Apparently, policy makers (like Nero) like to fiddle while the world (or Rome) burns; as the attached US EIA plot (issued July 20, 2016) makes it clear that worldwide production & consumption of liquid fossil fuels is at an all-time high and is headed higher:
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: TerryM on August 07, 2016, 07:25:16 PM
Over production = lower prices = higher usage = lower profit = increased production to service debt.


Rinse and repeat until WWIII kills off production (and users).


Terry
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: crandles on August 30, 2016, 05:00:01 PM

August 29:     399.46 ppm
per
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html)

but maybe it will get revised or considered unreliable.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 04, 2016, 12:36:00 AM

August 29:     399.46 ppm
per
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html)

but maybe it will get revised or considered unreliable.

This low reading was storm related as indicated by the linked article entitled: "Tropical Storm Madeline Sent CO2 Below 400 PPM":

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/tropical-storm-madeline-caused-a-dip-below-400-ppm-20657 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/tropical-storm-madeline-caused-a-dip-below-400-ppm-20657)

Extract: "Tropical Storm Madeline brought the classic impacts of heavy rains, high surf and gusty winds to Hawaii’s Big Island on Wednesday night and early Thursday. But it also brought a rather unexpected impact: carbon dioxide levels dipped below 400 parts per million (ppm) at the Mauna Loa Observatory."
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 14, 2016, 08:16:02 AM
Last Week September 4 - 10, 2016 400.97 ppm

1 Year Ago September 4 - 10, 2015 397.91 ppm

+3.06 ppm
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 20, 2016, 07:05:20 AM
To me the attached 6-month plot thru Sept 18 2016 suggests that the daily CO₂ Keeling curve reached a minimum around September 9, 2016 (note per the linked article the daily low of August 29 2016 was an outlier from the daily Keeling curve due to the occurrence of a hurricane):

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2016/08/31/brief-reprieve-from-400-ppm-era-may-be-thanks-to-a-hurricane/
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 20, 2016, 01:22:16 PM
To me the attached 6-month plot thru Sept 18 2016 suggests that the daily CO₂ Keeling curve reached a minimum around September 9, 2016 (note per the linked article the daily low of August 29 2016 was an outlier from the daily Keeling curve due to the occurrence of a hurricane):

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2016/08/31/brief-reprieve-from-400-ppm-era-may-be-thanks-to-a-hurricane/


The autumn colors of trees here have started to show up. Making a wild extrapolation that means aslr is correct and there's no need to wait a week for the minimum though more cautious persons might just want to do it.  :P ::) :o
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 20, 2016, 03:19:30 PM
To me the attached 6-month plot thru Sept 18 2016 suggests that the daily CO₂ Keeling curve reached a minimum around September 9, 2016 (note per the linked article the daily low of August 29 2016 was an outlier from the daily Keeling curve due to the occurrence of a hurricane):

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2016/08/31/brief-reprieve-from-400-ppm-era-may-be-thanks-to-a-hurricane/

Outlier or not, they did record a daily value below 400 ppm, likely the last in my lifetime. It would have to be one hell of a hurricane next year to achieve the same result.

This occurs the same year that the Cubs win the World Series. Coincidence?  8)
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 28, 2016, 12:51:50 AM
SciAm confirms that we will likely never be below the 400ppm mark in our lifetimes:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-s-co2-passes-the-400-ppm-threshold-maybe-permanently/ (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-s-co2-passes-the-400-ppm-threshold-maybe-permanently/)

Extract: "In the centuries to come, history books will likely look back on September 2016 as a major milestone for the world’s climate. At a time when atmospheric carbon dioxide is usually at its minimum, the monthly value failed to drop below 400 parts per million.

That all but ensures that 2016 will be the year that carbon dioxide officially passed the symbolic 400 ppm mark, never to return below it in our lifetimes, according to scientists."

Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: oren on September 28, 2016, 08:03:37 AM
SciAm confirms that we will likely never be below the 400ppm mark in our lifetimes:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-s-co2-passes-the-400-ppm-threshold-maybe-permanently/ (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-s-co2-passes-the-400-ppm-threshold-maybe-permanently/)

Extract: "In the centuries to come, history books will likely look back on September 2016 as a major milestone for the world’s climate. At a time when atmospheric carbon dioxide is usually at its minimum, the monthly value failed to drop below 400 parts per million.

That all but ensures that 2016 will be the year that carbon dioxide officially passed the symbolic 400 ppm mark, never to return below it in our lifetimes, according to scientists."
Am I the only one viewing this statement as optimistic?  :-\
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 01, 2016, 04:58:49 AM
CO2 Last Week,September 18 - 24, 2016:
400.87 ppm

CO2 1 Year Ago, September 18 - 24, 2015:
397.31 ppm

CO2 10 Years Ago, September 18 - 24, 2006:
378.61 ppm

Whole lotta CO2.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: budmantis on October 01, 2016, 07:17:42 AM
With a whole lot more to come, no doubt.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 03, 2016, 05:54:43 AM
Last Week       , Sep. 25 - Oct. 1, 2016 , 400.72 ppm
1 Year Ago     , Sep. 25 - Oct. 1, 2015 , 397.25 ppm
10 Years Ago , Sep. 25 - Oct. 1, 2006 , 378.94 ppm

(+3.47 ppm, +21.78 ppm , looking at percentages, atmospheric carbon dioxide might look like a pretty decent and a certain investment in zero-inflation situation, the fact that it isn't a corporation or company makes gaining from it pretty difficult, if not impossible. Also I'm afraid the external costs of investing in this commodity are not fully incorporated to its share value, making the investment, in long term, highly unfavorable despite the annual (or decadal) growth seen in numbers.)
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 09, 2016, 08:20:37 PM
Initial values for
Last Week     , October 2 - 8, 2016, 400.91 ppm
1 Year Ago    , October 2 - 8, 2015, 398.51 ppm
10 Years Ago, October 2 - 8, 2006, 378.81 ppm

(+2.40 ppm, + 22.10 ppm )
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 19, 2016, 02:20:59 AM
Last Week     , October 9 - 15, 2016, 401.57 ppm
1 Year Ago    , October 9 - 15, 2015, 398.03 ppm
10 Years Ago, October 9 - 15, 2006, 378.99 ppm

(+3.54 ppm , +22,58 ppm)
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 22, 2016, 06:09:34 PM
Last Week     , October 9 - 15, 2016, 401.57 ppm
1 Year Ago    , October 9 - 15, 2015, 398.03 ppm
10 Years Ago, October 9 - 15, 2006, 378.99 ppm

(+3.54 ppm , +22,58 ppm)

Here is a graphic showing NOAA's weekly Mauna Loa CO2 data thru the week of Oct 9 -15, 2016
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 22, 2016, 08:16:06 PM
A nice visualisation of atmospheric CO2 as we pass 400ppm for the last time, using weekly data from Mauna Loa
http://folk.uio.no/roberan/t/MLO_weekly.shtml (http://folk.uio.no/roberan/t/MLO_weekly.shtml)

Click to animate.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: oren on October 23, 2016, 12:14:52 AM
Wow. 2016, the year of the feedback indeed.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: budmantis on October 24, 2016, 02:31:10 PM
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37729033 (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37729033)

"CO2 levels mark new era in the world's changing climate".

Although this isn't "news" to us, the image is rather striking.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 25, 2016, 05:01:22 AM
[CO2] Last Week,     October 16 - 22, 2016, 401.65 ppm
[CO2] 1 Year Ago,    October 16 - 22, 2015, 398.49 ppm
[CO2] 10 Years Ago, October 16 - 22, 2006, 378.94 ppm

(+3.16 ppm , + 22.71 ppm)

____________________________________________________________________________

Do you get enough sleep? No?? Maybe that's because you do not get enough oxygen! Buy our oxygen tent with very minimal operating costs! (picture of a lit greenhouse)
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Tigertown on October 25, 2016, 06:16:25 AM
Noticed this Headline today while reading in the U.N. News Center.(Nerd Alert!)

www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=55387#.WA7Y6C0rLIU (http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=55387#.WA7Y6C0rLIU)

At least they are walking what they are talking; note the air conditioner. You don't see that too often in a high rise building.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)

Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Bill Fothergill on October 25, 2016, 02:23:21 PM
With the monthly Global CO2 figure for August standing at 400.47ppm, September represents the "last, best hope" that anyone now living - and possibly for many generations - will ever again see a Global monthly value below the 400 mark. The number should be published soon, but I'm not holding my breath.  :(
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html#global_data (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html#global_data)

As even the Antarctic stations are now seeing 400+, it will only be a couple of years until sub 400 is history there as well.  :-\
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/antarctica-co2-400-ppm-million-years-20451 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/antarctica-co2-400-ppm-million-years-20451)

Thank God I'm an old git.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 27, 2016, 11:19:49 AM
Just wanted to say it's nice Mauna Loa observatory personnel let people see the daily cycle as well as in these graphs, not everyday experiences a small drop, but it's regular pulse.

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/wp-content/plugins/sio-bluemoon/graphs/mlo_one_month.png
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 01, 2016, 02:42:00 AM
Last Week,     October 23 - 29, 2016, 402.07 ppm
1 Year Ago,    October 23 - 29, 2015, 398.50 ppm
10 Years Ago, October 23 - 29, 2006, 379.55 ppm
(+3.57 ppm, +22.52 ppm)

Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 01, 2016, 11:42:34 PM
Per the linked Scribbler article 2016 is on track to be the highest annual rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide increase on record:

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/11/01/2016-on-track-for-record-rate-of-atmospheric-co2-increase/

Extract: "During 2016, the annual rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide increase will have hit a record 3.2 to 3.55 parts per million (ppm)."
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: ritter on November 02, 2016, 05:39:49 PM
Per the linked Scribbler article 2016 is on track to be the highest annual rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide increase on record:

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/11/01/2016-on-track-for-record-rate-of-atmospheric-co2-increase/

Extract: "During 2016, the annual rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide increase will have hit a record 3.2 to 3.55 parts per million (ppm)."

Going the wrong way at ever-increasing speed. Nothing good can come of that.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 07, 2016, 04:53:52 AM
(revelations 20161107) And God set the instrument measuring the Carbon Dioxide at Mauna Loa pointing at values that counted up, by proper and exact calculations, to show the value of
402.81 ppm, for the average for the previous Week, that is, Oct. 30 - Nov. 5, 2016, since Sundays are the start of the week for this calculation, as has been decreed in the Manual of Measurements. 1 Year Ago, namely, Oct. 30 - Nov. 5, 2015, the value for this gas was, by God, 398.94 ppm. Thus the number had risen by 3.87 ppm from the last measurement done on the equivalent days of earth's rotation round the sun, not counting the long-period wobbles God has set on this. This the reader of revelations should remember. The value of 10 Years Ago, Oct. 30 - Nov. 5, 2006 was  379.61 ppm, as can be read in the verse 20061107.

Sorry for OT banter in between.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Bill Fothergill on November 08, 2016, 05:25:10 PM
@ PMT111500

As you are clearly such a fan of the Book of Revelations, perhaps you are also familiar with the book "Good Omens", written jointly by Neil Gaiman and the much-missed Terry Pratchett.

Possibly my favourite bit is when a bunch of hairy-arsed bikers happen to be present in a transport cafe when the Four Riders of the Apocalypse turn up. One of the bikers asks...

  "You're Hell's Angels, then? What chapter are you from?"

To which Pratchett's recurring character, Death, succinctly replies in his normal, doom-laden tones...

   "REVELATIONS. CHAPTER SIX.

Returning to something more akin to the thread topic, further to my comment #43, the Global September figure has just come in at 400.72 ppm(v). So, we can now safely say that October 2015 was the last time that anyone living (and possibly for many, many generations) will ever see a sub-400 global monthly value.

Thank God I'm an old git, but I worry what kind of a biosphere future generations will inherit.

Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: silkman on November 08, 2016, 06:11:52 PM
.....and August 29th 2016 was almost certainly the last single day with a Mauna Loa CO2 reading below 400ppm for an extremely long time. If one ever needed evidence that mankind was capable of geoengineering the planet then this, surely, is it. And still the GOP is in denial. Everything crossed over here in the UK for a Hillary victory today.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 08, 2016, 07:20:13 PM
... Book of Revelations ...
Many will know the apocalyptic "Book of Revelation" (AKA "Revelation of John" and variations on these themes) is the last book in the Christian bible and is deemed to be of a single revelation by ecclesiastic scholars (to the extent that I understand anything about such matters).  Those using the word "Revelations", including, apparently, Pratchett's character, Death, tend to be judged [Oh, no!] ignorant by true believers. 

Speaking of belief (and to wander back into on-topic), I wonder-if/suspect/believe the combination of increased CO2e with the large El Nino (just past) are major contributors to the current exceptional dearth of global sea ice.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: werther on November 08, 2016, 07:50:59 PM
October 2016:        401.57 ppm
October 2015:        398.29 ppm

An incredible 3.28 ppm rise....
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Bill Fothergill on November 09, 2016, 12:14:52 AM
... Book of Revelations ...
...  Those using the word "Revelations", including, apparently, Pratchett's character, Death, tend to be judged [Oh, no!] ignorant by true believers. 

Guilty as charged.
To think of all those years at school and at university wasted learning frivolities such as Physics, Chemistry, Mathematics, Thermodynamics, etc., when I could (and should) have been learning important stuff instead.  ;)

... Everything crossed over here in the UK for a Hillary victory today.
Astonishingly (to me, at least) both the BBC and Channel 4 have been using Frank Luntz as one of their talking heads.  ???

For those perhaps unfamiliar with the gentleman in question, he was the author of a playbook written to the Bush (Dubya) Administration on how to handle matters pertaining to Climate Change. The search string "Luntz Memo" will bring up a variety of relevant hits, including...
https://www2.bc.edu/~plater/Newpublicsite06/suppmats/02.6.pdf

Back to the television now to watch the results come in. If DJT ends up with the keys to 1600 Penn, I might just top myself.  :(
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 09, 2016, 03:05:57 AM
... Book of Revelations ...
Many will know the apocalyptic "Book of Revelation" (AKA "Revelation of John" and variations on these themes) is the last book in the Christian bible and is deemed to be of a single revelation by ecclesiastic scholars (to the extent that I understand anything about such matters).  Those using the word "Revelations", including, apparently, Pratchett's character, Death, tend to be judged [Oh, no!] ignorant by true believers. 

Speaking of belief (and to wander back into on-topic), I wonder-if/suspect/believe the combination of increased CO2e with the large El Nino (just past) are major contributors to the current exceptional dearth of global sea ice.

I've had my share of fantasy, yes. Tried to find a fitting quote of the Surah from my translated copy of Quran to explain the error, but got distracted again, just goes to show you shouldn't translate the book. It appears Mohammed had revelations, not John. I'm not going to go to other religious books on the shelf like Kalevala, parts of Poetic Edda, the Bible or Silmarillion here  ;)

Meanwhile, the Christians at Mauna Loa were uncertain of the true number on the eve of the election, I hope this has a natural Godly reason, and that this is not affected by the progress of election results arriving:
November 7, 2016, data too variable
November 7, 2015, 399.34 ppm

 
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 09, 2016, 11:02:52 AM
With President Elect Donald Trump waiting in the wings we could well be headed to a climate change apocalypse:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Heaven

Extract: "Modern Bible commentators view the "war in heaven" in Revelation 12:7–13 as an eschatological vision of the end of time or as a reference to spiritual warfare within the church, rather than (as in Milton's Paradise Lost) "the story of the origin of Satan/Lucifer as an angel who rebelled against God in primeval times." Some Christian commentators have seen the war in heaven as "not literal" but symbolic of events on earth."
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Bill Fothergill on November 09, 2016, 12:16:28 PM
Bloody hell!   >:(

Auvoir Accord de Paris.

RCP8.5 here we come.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/rcp.php?t=3#PrimaryCharacteristics (http://www.skepticalscience.com/rcp.php?t=3#PrimaryCharacteristics)
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: ritter on November 09, 2016, 05:51:10 PM
Bloody hell!   >:(

Auvoir Accord de Paris.

RCP8.5 here we come.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/rcp.php?t=3#PrimaryCharacteristics (http://www.skepticalscience.com/rcp.php?t=3#PrimaryCharacteristics)

Yup. I'm calling it the climate denial trifecta.  :(
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: werther on November 09, 2016, 07:14:34 PM
In my opinion this planet is in "all over"-mode ever since COP15 failed. The present political and economic turmoil is one of the consequences. Most people seem not to discern this. I can't judge them. In a way, I can understand. It's a tragedy....
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: werther on November 09, 2016, 07:17:41 PM
By the way, Bill....

In France they will probably mention it as "Adieu accord de Paris"! We will never again see such an opportunity...
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Bill Fothergill on November 09, 2016, 10:49:24 PM
werther,

I knew "auvoir" didn't sound quite right, but my feeble intellect couldn't drag up "adieu". As soon as I saw your comment, it was a bit of a Homer Simpson moment.

merde

(Completely OT, yesterday I met a couple of French visitors strolling aimlessly round our Devon village. I managed to dredge up enough school French to direct them towards the most photogenic part of the village, and probably quite surprised them in the process. Given my Scottish accent, most people have trouble understanding what I say when I'm using Ingerlish.)

C'est la vie
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 10, 2016, 12:20:10 AM
For those who come here from countries other than the U.S., I would like to just say I am sorry. We have lost our minds and you can no longer depend on us for anything.

Carry on.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: magnamentis on November 10, 2016, 12:31:21 AM
werther,

I knew "auvoir" didn't sound quite right, but my feeble intellect couldn't drag up "adieu". As soon as I saw your comment, it was a bit of a Homer Simpson moment.

merde

(Completely OT, yesterday I met a couple of French visitors strolling aimlessly round our Devon village. I managed to dredge up enough school French to direct them towards the most photogenic part of the village, and probably quite surprised them in the process. Given my Scottish accent, most people have trouble understanding what I say when I'm using Ingerlish.)

C'est la vie

au revoir is ok if you want to say : see you later or see you again which is that precise translation

while werther pointed out that he prefers not to see that again in which case the term is

adieu, means good bye for ever or translated, be with god.

however, au revoir is a very common term to say good bye, similar like the spanish adios and the au revoir equivalent "hasta luego" or in terminator talk LOL "hasta la vista" :D
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 14, 2016, 08:45:55 PM
Here is a graphic for Mauna Loa CO2 concentration thru Nov 5, 2016
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: TerryM on November 14, 2016, 09:26:56 PM
ASLR
That is an amazingly effective graph, It not only shows the increase over time, but also the increase of the increase over time.
Do you happen to know if a similar chart is available that takes the accumulated effect of all greenhouse gasses. I'd love to see one based on a ten year timeframe.


Terry
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 14, 2016, 09:46:37 PM
ASLR
That is an amazingly effective graph, It not only shows the increase over time, but also the increase of the increase over time.
Do you happen to know if a similar chart is available that takes the accumulated effect of all greenhouse gasses. I'd love to see one based on a ten year timeframe.


Terry

Terry,

The graph comes from the linked Global Carbon Project site.  As far as I can tell they only post graphs for CO₂ .

http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/index.htm (http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/index.htm)
&
http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/16/files/GCP_budget_2016_v1.0_FinalRelease.pdf (http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/16/files/GCP_budget_2016_v1.0_FinalRelease.pdf)

All the other plots of GHG CO2-eq that I have seen are not as nice and also use a GWP100 of 25 for methane instead of 34 (Edit: such as the second attached image by NOAA through the Spring of 2016).  Nevertheless, the attached plot shows that the other GHGs are increasing rapidly:
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 15, 2016, 07:09:24 AM
Filo pastry image is good. Thanks ASRL.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Bill Fothergill on November 22, 2016, 04:36:46 PM
@ ASLR,

As noted by Terry & Pmt111500, the graph you posted is very effective in getting its point across.

Sadly, only certain types of variables lend themselves to this form of rendition. Each year, the concentration at any given date monotonically rises in comparison to that obtained for the equivalent date during the previous year.

It is this monotonic nature of CO2 concentration that makes this type of graph work so well. For intrinsically noisy data sets - such as Arctic sea ice extent - the overall effect would not be so good.

However, leaving that aside, it's still a bloody good graph - one that I fully intend to plagiarise.  ;)

Thanks for sharing.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 22, 2016, 05:35:19 PM
It is this monotonic nature of CO2 concentration that makes this type of graph work so well.

Bill,

Sadly since 2007 (when the plot begins) both CH4 and NO2 have also been monotonically increasing.  Thus I note that per NOAA CO₂-eq at the end of 2015 was 486ppm using a GWP100 of 25 for methane; however, I note that if one uses the correct GWP100 value for methane of 35 instead of 25, then NOAA's calculated value for the CO2-eq for 2015 would be 518ppm (and rising) instead of 485ppm (see Reply #65).

That is why Terry asked for a comparable plot showing CO2-eq, using the correct GWP100.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Bill Fothergill on November 22, 2016, 06:01:59 PM
@ ASLR

I should also have said thanks for dragging me up to speed on the revised GWP100 for Methane. I had still been thinking in terms of the value of 23 that was being talked about at the time of the 3rd Assessment Report.

CFCs have been largely brought under control since the Montreal Agreement, but I wonder (and worry) about HCFCs and equivalents based upon other halogens. I suspect that many of these will also display this pattern of monotonic increase.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 22, 2016, 07:49:29 PM
Bill,

With a hat-tip to Csnavywx, I provide the linked reference that indicates that China commonly under-reports their coal C02 emission; which commonly get updated later.  So one also needs to keep an eye open on the shell game being played on anthropogenic GHG emissions:

Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters and Robbie M. Andrew (28 MARCH 2016), "Uncertainties around reductions in China’s coal use and CO2emissions, Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2963


http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2963.epdf?referrer_access_token=CQP0e8ieJx1p7TA4Hn6QaNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0MzjhCJlVVAmG13-5PJDnSySK2Lxzv3D_ee1oyBWt_RNpsoeEXf8rGQ1sfSfZpnHLN21KeGCC5IysWOE3jY7AGT-hevVoHZP2jp5ylpvz3usEEnC2eT_4OFxH0CPHcOFJlJKy7ZZMDGY51QP_Jcm7BI285BkjiTSBAwR_z94dbuV_oRKKwHKYsyaewc4HfyV8mXb8vtZmOzb0Ii0gd8E65I&tracking_referrer=www.climatecentral.org (http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2963.epdf?referrer_access_token=CQP0e8ieJx1p7TA4Hn6QaNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0MzjhCJlVVAmG13-5PJDnSySK2Lxzv3D_ee1oyBWt_RNpsoeEXf8rGQ1sfSfZpnHLN21KeGCC5IysWOE3jY7AGT-hevVoHZP2jp5ylpvz3usEEnC2eT_4OFxH0CPHcOFJlJKy7ZZMDGY51QP_Jcm7BI285BkjiTSBAwR_z94dbuV_oRKKwHKYsyaewc4HfyV8mXb8vtZmOzb0Ii0gd8E65I&tracking_referrer=www.climatecentral.org)

Extract: "Chinese coal consumption dropped 2.9% in 2014 according to preliminary official statistics released in 2015. This was hailed as historic after China’s meteoric growth in the 2000s.  The International Energy Agency used it to estimate ∼1.5% reduction in Chinese fossil CO₂ emissions for 2014, and an unprecedented 0.2% reduction in global emissions. Similar preliminary coal consumption statistics are announced every year, and will be watched closely after China’s recent slowdown in emissions growth and pledge to peak emissions in 2030 or earlier. However, Chinese energy statistics are frequently revised and often contain large anomalies, implying high uncertainty. For example, BP used different Chinese data to estimate a 0.9% increase in 2014 CO₂ emissions. Here, we analyse these preliminary announcements, with an approach that can be used to assess the robustness of similar future announcements. We show that the preliminary 2.9% reduction in coal consumption is inappropriate for estimating CO₂ emissions, that coal-derived energy consumption stayed flat but is likely to have decreased in 2015, and that Chinese fossil CO2 emissions probably increased ∼0.8% in 2014. We also analyse recent revisions of official energy statistics, and find that they imply 925 MtCO2 (11.2%) higher emissions for 2013, and 7.6 GtCO2 (9.2%) higher total emissions for 2000–2013."

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 23, 2016, 10:20:48 AM
The data entries for the week of Nov 13- 19, XXXX are as follows:
Last Week, November 13 - 19, 2016, 403.74 ppm
1 Year Ago, November 13 - 19, 2015, 400.59 ppm
10 Years Ago, November 13 - 19, 2006, 379.96 ppm

the 3.15 ppm rise from the value year ago isn't likely notable in the human cognition analyses, whereas the 23,78 ppm rise from ten years ago can affect temperatures round the planet, that is, temperatures rise, which in turn may affect  people.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Bill Fothergill on November 25, 2016, 12:36:03 AM
ASLR

Thanks for the Nature link. All in all, a thoroughly depressing read.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 28, 2016, 12:11:04 AM
ASLR

Thanks for the Nature link. All in all, a thoroughly depressing read.

Bill,

Depressing, or not, facing the truth can be galvanizing; & in this vain of thought I note that many officials (scientists & policymakers) blame the current high atmospheric CO2 concentrations (see the attached NOAA Mauna Loa plot showing values over 405ppm on Nov 25 & 26) on last year's Super El Nino (even though NOAA claims that we are now in La Nina conditions).  ENSO is a chaotic Earth System which can accelerate climate change via Lorenz attractors; so assuming that ENSO fluctuations will soon return us back to more typical CO2 concentrations, seems to me like wishful thinking.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 28, 2016, 05:27:07 AM
CO2-amount looks to be rising even in Late November compared to previous measurements in earlier years:

Last Week, November 20 - 26, 2016, 403.98 ppm
1 Year Ago, November 20 - 26, 2015, 400.30 ppm
10 Years Ago, November 20 - 26, 2006, 380.71 ppm
(+3.68 ppm, +23.27 ppm)
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 28, 2016, 09:33:11 PM
In addition to the influence of the ENSO on atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (see Reply #73), the linked reference & associated article discuss the effect of enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake from 2002 to 2014; which may (or may have already) change into a positive feedback with continued global warming:

Keenan et. al. (2016) "Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO₂ due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake", Nature Communication, doi:10.1038/ncomms13428.

http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms13428 (http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms13428)

See also the associated article entitled: "Rise in atmospheric CO2 slowed by green vegetation"

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37909361 (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-37909361)

Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Bill Fothergill on December 02, 2016, 11:10:01 PM
@ASLR

I was not overly impressed by the questionable end point selections that were employed in that Nature study. It is redolent of the "no temp rise since blah-blah" bollox that is sadly so prevalent in the world of climate change denial - or Flatland, as I prefer to call it.

I managed to find the annual growth data used to populate their graph, and I have plotted it below - without the arbitrary break-points.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html#global_growth (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html#global_growth)

I also applied 3-year centred smoothing to a second chart. In this second chart, much of the argument for a "hiatus" simply disappears. However, in either case, the economic collapse of the Soviet Union (and many of its Eastern European satellite states) is clearly visible in the dramatic (but temporary) decline in emissions around the end of the 1980's.

http://www.nytimes.com/1991/12/08/world/carbon-dioxide-emissions-dropped-in-1990-ecologists-say.html (http://www.nytimes.com/1991/12/08/world/carbon-dioxide-emissions-dropped-in-1990-ecologists-say.html)

You might also be interested in looking out for a little book by David Archer called "The Global Carbon Cycle". As I only did one year of Chemistry at university, it certainly helped me with some of the concepts involved.


Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 03, 2016, 01:35:38 AM
I was not overly impressed ...

Bill,

Getting the science right is difficult, but getting the interpretation of the science can be even more difficult.  If the Nature reference is correct that terrestrial plant absorption increased over the reference period, and if you are correct that no pause in atmospheric CO2 concentrations occurred over the reference period; then climate sensitivity is likely higher than consensus science is prepared to acknowledge publically (assuming that the increase in terrestrial plant CO2 absorption is temporary with continued global warming causing plant distress).

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Bill Fothergill on December 04, 2016, 06:31:07 PM
The "confusing" aspect of the chart that was employed in the Nature article is that it relates to the rate of change in the growth rate, i.e. it is tracking a second derivative.

The scale on the Y-axis is given by the annual growth rate in atmospheric CO2, and is shown in ppm(v) per annum. The gradient of the chart is therefore the rate of change in the growth rate. (Expressing this as a derivative would be something like d2(ppm)/d(time)2.) One can attempt to make the case that places where the trend is non-linear give some insight into 3rd order (or higher) derivatives w.r.t time - although personally I think the data is too noisy for such interpretation.

The chart I used does have the benefit of including the 2015 data. As this is the biggest full annual increment (until 2016?) it makes the interpretation of some kind of slow down/hiatus rather questionable.

As I said, I think the break point selection was, at best, dodgy. The best analogy I can think of is with the temperature change "escalator" used on the Skeptical Science site. [I hate spelling "sceptical" with a "k".]
http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47 (http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47)
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: crandles on December 05, 2016, 09:14:16 PM
Global not Mauna Loa but

October 2016:       402.31 ppm
October 2015:       398.60 ppm

Increase 3.71 which is a record high increase for any 12 months from any month since record began in 1980!

Edit:
Though not by much - next largest was 3.68 increase for July 2016 over July 2015, and prior to this year the record was 3.59 for Sept 98. Clearly ENSO is one of the main drivers for these departures from normal. So not greatly surprising.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Pmt111500 on December 06, 2016, 09:30:21 AM
Period Week Atmospheric CO2

Last Week Nov. 27 - Dec. 3, 2016 404.38 ppm

1 Year Ago Nov. 27 - Dec. 3, 2015 400.75 ppm

10 Years Ago Nov. 27 - Dec. 3, 2006 381.24 ppm

I think a part of the rise is because of using turf as energy source. Many in Finland disagree. Happy independence day.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Pmt111500 on December 13, 2016, 03:15:25 AM
Last Week December 4 - 10, 2016, Mauna Loa Observatory, CO2 = 403.87 ppm

As we still get numbers from Mauna Loa Observatory, despite the planned future government, it might be a good time to reflect the amounts of CO2 at Mauna Loa in earlier years:
1 Year Ago December 4 - 10, 2015, Mauna Loa Observatory, CO2 = 401.25 ppm
10 Years Ago December 4 - 10, 2006, Mauna Loa Observatory, CO2 = 381.41 ppm

The yearly rise in CO2 was not as pronounced during December 4 - 10 as it was earlier this year. This on the other hand, has nothing to do with the election results, but is connected to the state of the ocean in the neighborhood (500*500 km)  of the measuring station.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Pmt111500 on December 27, 2016, 10:56:47 AM
The darkest week of the year:
Last Week, December 18 - 24, 2016, 404.52 ppm

Oops, I missed the numbers from the previous week, hopefully this doesn't ruin anybody's Christmas.
1 Year Ago December 18 - 24, 2015, 402.63 ppm

But it looks like Christmas week had the lowest rise for a long time, so interpolate, man, interpolate.
10 Years Ago December 18 - 24, 2006, 382.14 ppm

Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on December 30, 2016, 03:32:05 AM
Thanks Crandles and Pmt,

Here are the full trending of the 1 5, and 10 year monthly change for October, 2016.

More is at: http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/2016/12/global-co2-october-2016-hits-record.html (http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/2016/12/global-co2-october-2016-hits-record.html)

Crandles, I decided to run the ENSO/El Nino change and CO2 increase by month to determine how much pattern exists, and I'll blog on that shortly.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: Pmt111500 on January 03, 2017, 05:15:01 AM
El Nino's contribution to the high yearly rise could be at the end?

Last Week December 25 - 31, 2016 404.78 ppm

1 Year Ago December 25 - 31, 2015 402.09 ppm (+2.69 ppm)

10 Years Ago December 25 - 31, 2006 382.23 ppm (+22.55 ppm)

Likely time for a new thread.
Title: Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 03, 2017, 06:52:33 PM
It is not good news when the daily Mauna Loa atmospheric CO2 concentration exceeds 407ppm with neutral ENSO conditions (see the attached image):