Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Arctic sea ice => Topic started by: Andreas T on July 20, 2016, 02:07:49 PM

Title: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Andreas T on July 20, 2016, 02:07:49 PM
prompted  by a discussion on the melting season thread I have started this a more than a month earlier than last year.
I hope nobody thinks this is to signify an early start to the refreeze, I don't believe in spells, jinxes and that sort of "magical" thinking.
It is interesting by the way to have a look at the start of last years thread with the benefit of hindsight. We are trying to learn from our observations and wish to derive an understanding which lets us detect signs of what the future will bring. I have learned that there is huge complexity in the melting and freezing of arctic sea ice and that makes me cautious with predictions. But we are all amateurs here (despite the expertise some people bring here from related areas or by doing a lot of research as a leisure activity) and that give us the benefit of not having to worry too much about making a guess and seeing something it turn out very differently. Trying to make that guess can make us work harder at understanding and being critical of ourselves as of others. So lets see how much what we have learned so far can help us in our guessing and where we need to learn more.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jplotinus on July 20, 2016, 03:58:42 PM
I imagine there might well be responses that it is far too soon to have started this thread. You may even be accused of unfairly seeking to achieve "pinned" status. I for one do not begrudge you that status at all.

In fact, based on the 'stall' that persisted throughout June and the ongoing 4 day lull in melt momentum, I would say thinking ahead toward the freezing season is perfectly proper.

I also think the extent lull (jaxa/IJIS) occurring over last 4 days may end up serving as the definite indicator that 2016 will not surpass the 2012 minimum. But, then again, the Arctic is unpredictable.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Michael Hauber on July 20, 2016, 11:12:10 PM

I see your point about what extent may mean for the melting season, but what about the freezing season?  What does a higher extent of more broken up and widely dispersed ice portend for the freezing season?  As a chemist we know that crystals form more rapidly when there are already seed crystals present.  Supercooled water can remain liquid well below freezing until it is exposed to a tiny ice crystal.  And then bam!! (to quote or paraphrase Frivolous), ice will immediately form throughout the entirety of the water.  Isn't it possible that a wide extent of broken up ice chunks dispersed more evenly throughout the Arctic than usual might act like a bunch of seed crystals that will cause more rapid and extensive re-freezing of ice in October through December compared to the type and speed of freezing that occurs with open waters?  I can see that this summer the broken up ice might suddenly turn into a huge expanse of ice-free open water, as happened in 2012.  If so, then my vote of a higher than the polled average of ice extent will be way off and I will eat crow-shaped ice chunks.  But if minimum ice extent turns out to be 4,500,000+ km2 and the ice at this time is more widely dispersed than it normally is, it might very well result in more rapid, extensive, and complete freezing once the Arctic turns to freezing. 

Wherever ice is dispersed the water in between cannot warm far above freezing without the heat being used to melt ice.  Wherever there is large amounts of open water the water can absorb lots of sunlight energy without the heat being used to melt ice.  Then when air temps drop low enough for freezing the water in between the ice can melt straight away, whereas the large areas of open water have to lose their heat first before freezing can start.

I am confident that a widely dispersed ice pack would result in faster freezing than a compact ice pack, given the same total area of ice.

rapid refreezes are definitely bad for the ice/improve the chances of a bigger melt the following year. no 'maybe' about it

Why would that be so?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on July 21, 2016, 01:21:22 AM
I understand that gaps within dispersed ice, especially in the CAB, will refreeze quickly for what Michael has explained, this has been observed in other seasons. There is an inertia due to bottom melting but if gaps were relatively small compared to the extent of ice around, the accumulated heat should be much less than at the edges. And it tends to be colder for obvious reasons (little warmth from periphery, no warm currents in general). So I agree with some of what FTB implies with his chemistry analogy, but for these different reasons.
However the ice can get compacted before Sep.
About the "the rapid refreeze is good for the ice" somebody may have a really solid explanation in one direction or the other.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Michael Hauber on July 21, 2016, 02:01:21 AM
One thing I can think of is that windy conditions could create more mixing, pulling more heat out of the deeper ocean and delaying ice formation.  Still conditions could form ice faster on the surface leaving more heat underneath.  Thicker ice means insulation holding the heat in, and potentially restricting the further growth of ice later in the freeze season. 

But faster freeze due to colder conditions with similar wind?  I'd expect thicker ice, with no downside.  Colder conditions more likely to be still?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on July 21, 2016, 02:43:28 AM

rapid refreezes are definitely bad for the ice/improve the chances of a bigger melt the following year. no 'maybe' about it

Why would that be so?
Decreased rate of heat transfer through the ice.  Loss of heat from open water is far higher than areas covered even with fairly thin ice.   Paradoxically, if we have more open water dumping heat (and melting slush that forms), the better off we are for the next melt season. 

Eventually of course, we want the balance to tip over to ice formation, but before then we want as much heat vented out of the atmosphere as possible.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Andreas T on July 21, 2016, 09:04:36 AM
I agree with jd that it comes down to heat loss at the water surface. The difficulty is to see how a larger heat loss does not produce lower temperatures at the surface and the water temperature does not go below freezing point (I don't think supercooling is a feature in the arctic ocean where water isn't entirely clear and snow can easily provide "seed crystals")
The key here is that sea water has its density maximum at its freezing point, but then the ice that forms has lower density because salt is rejected from the ice crystal. If I would cool  sea water slowly it would stay liquid until it all has reached freezing point. In the ocean water is slightly above freezing point when ice starts to form at the surface and strong cooling of the ice/ air surface allows that ice to float on water which would melt it if it would simply be dropped into a large container of that stuff.
As long as the surface of sea water is colder than the bulk of it there will be convection moving cold water from the surface down and replacing it with warmer water. Because the temperature at the water surface (water/air or water/ice) can not be lower than freezing temp. the way that heat transfer out of the bulk of the water can change is by changing the rate of convection, i.e. speeding up or slowing down movement.
With open water and wind we can expect movement of water in the vertical direction which helps that transfer of heat to the surface. With an ice cover that additional movement is absent. Since water can not move up and down in the exactly the same place at the same time the convection which continues to cool the sea below the ice also has a horizontal component which is impeded by the solid ice surface. All in all convection is slower under ice than at the open water surface.
This is how thickening of sea ice reaches a limit: when the ice is 3 meter thick (to give a rough figure) even very cold temperatures at the top will only carry as much heat through the ice (by conduction) as is taken from the cooling ocean below. Of course the ocean would eventually get so cold it would start to freeze regardless of how slowly heat is removed but then summer comes along before that and there are such other heat inputs as deeper, warmer but saltier water which does not take part in the convection described earlier.

In that simplified situation heat loss is undoubtedly reduced. But how much would in that (at this moment hypothetical) dispersed older ice at the start of the freezing season move and compact the thin younger ice, opening leads which freeze thereby producing a not much less thick ice cover than is found usually?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on July 24, 2016, 09:21:28 AM
Thanks Andreas, for providing a forming for discussing dynamics of refreezing.  I was just musing the other day and of course made some comments questioning the data record in addition to the ice as seed crystal hypothesis.  That made my post seem far more skeptical than in reality it was meant to be. I have a certain mindset based the bizarre fact that (1) I was sort of a pyro as a kid and became interested in chemistry that way, (2) studied chemistry in college though I originally declared as political science major, (3) went to law school and am practicing lawyer, and (4) formed a company that does R&D and owns patents relating to "green cement" technology to reduce CO2 footprint of cement and concrete.  Points (3) and (4) have jaded me and make me overly critical of certain points of view. But believe me I'm self-critical and self-correct as much as possible and quite pleasant and ingratiating in person notwithstanding my acerbic writing style.http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/Smileys/default/grin.gif (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/Smileys/default/grin.gif)

I appreciated everyone's passion and dedication to this endeavor and hope to not step on toes but wish to learn.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: SCYetti on July 24, 2016, 03:58:59 PM
Thanks AndreasT for your post. The mechanics of freezing is something I've given a lot of thought. I agree with everything you posted except for the super-cooling. Wouldn't super cooling have to occur in the Arctic Ocean at depth. Each 10 meters of water equals about 1 atmosphere pressure?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Andreas T on July 24, 2016, 07:32:57 PM
But what would be cooling water at that depth, i.e. where would the heat go to cool the water down there?
The coldest water at depth is cold because it has cooled at the surface (under the antarctic sea ice afaik) so while it could be colder than -2oC without freezing because it is at high pressure it can't get colder with a warm Earth beneath it and warmer surface water above it.

Or am I misunderstanding your question?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: SCYetti on July 24, 2016, 08:26:14 PM
Andreas - you understood my question despite a misplaced question mark. I'll give it some more thought and do some research and maybe get back to you if I find anything.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on August 13, 2016, 07:35:36 AM
From a post on 2016 melting season:

"However, every observer must remember that the more pulverized the sea ice becomes, the harder it is to estimate melting because the melt is increasingly driven by mixing of pulverised ice with sea water. (Water-sitting 3-dimensional ice surface area grows towards infinity the more pulverized and smaller the pieces of sea ice become - this facilitates ever greater heat transfers between water and ice. Strong winds mix sea water more efficiently in these circumstances."

It seems to me that in a reversible process factors that are favorable for producing an equilibrium effect in one direction should do the same when driven in the opposite direction.  Therefore, if highly dispersed ice promotes faster melting in the summer because of increased surface area around the edges, it should promote faster refreezing in the winter for the exact same reason.  Ice likes to form on ice like any crystal.  More solid surface area and wider distribution of ice when conditions favor refreezing should hasten refreezing.  If that were not so, then it shouldn't hasten melting either.  Given the dogged tendency of the highly dispersed ice to hang around this melt season notwithstanding warmer water temperatures means the quoted matter above may be error.  If so, then so would be my hypothesis of faster refreezing.  I'm happy to be wrong.  I just want there to be consistency in observation and prediction.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: anthropocene on August 13, 2016, 08:45:51 AM
It is interesting by the way to have a look at the start of last years thread with the benefit of hindsight. We are trying to learn from our observations and wish to derive an understanding which lets us detect signs of what the future will bring. I have learned that there is huge complexity in the melting and freezing of arctic sea ice and that makes me cautious with predictions. But we are all amateurs here

So what do you think are the lessons that could be learned from last year's freezing thread? Is it possible to draw up a hypothesis from those lessons? What measurements and tests could support or disprove that hypothesis? One of the great features of science is the scientific method and that it is quite simple and anybody can follow it. Also the scientific method stands apart and is independent of whoever is applying it. I dislike too much emphasis being made on the distinction of "professional" and "amateur". Two points to back that up:
1) Until maybe 100 years ago the vast majority of scientists would have been classed as "amateur". That didn't stop great advances in science being made.
2) The Olympics is on at the moment - many of the athletes will be classed as professional. Some athletes at the games will be amateur and there are many more amateur athletes in the world competing in the sports for fun. Do amateurs - because they are amateurs - get an opt out of doing the sport properly because they are amateurs? Do amateur marathon runners run part of the distance get in a car and drive several miles because they "are only amateurs"?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: icy voyeur on August 13, 2016, 12:56:56 PM

It seems to me that in a reversible process factors that are favorable for producing an equilibrium effect in one direction should ...

It's not an equilibrium process. Not even close. There's layerings of different salinity and thermal layers. The question is, how much mixing occurs and by what mechanisms. During summer melting you get light, low salinity cold water on top which is metastable.  During winter freezing you get high salinity water on top which is unstable because it's heavy. Larger ice sheets dampen swells which dampens one mode of mixing.  Freshman chemistry is a poor starting point to address dynamic systems.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Andreas T on August 14, 2016, 02:10:52 AM
Feel the burn, you say you are critical of what you are told, but you should also be critical of the very poor reasoning with which you draw analogies between processes at very different scales. You repeat the idea of dispersed ice forming nuclei for crystalization. This is nonsense at the scale of the arctic ocean and you simply ignore any opportunity to learn more about this.
Ice will form more easily and quickly between dispersed ice floes than on a large expanse of open water. The question which matters is: what does that mean for heat loss from the ocean. I have adressed that above but you seem to pay no notice to it. You would not be the first chemist with a poor ability to think scientifically I have come across, but you should at least be aware of your limitations and not mistake vague analogy for science.
Ice yoyeur is right in pointing to the asymmetry in the processes of melting and freezing: the process of solidifying water is happening in a situation where transfer of heat into the water is different from transfer of heat out of the water, salt is concentrated in sea water during freezing which produces buoyant ice, the convection currents for melting and freezing are not reversible.

anthropocene: the main lesson I draw from looking back is that prediction on the basis of little understanding, mistaken analogy and preconceived opinion is futile. I find the arctic capable of behaving in many different ways, a changing arctic will keep surprising us. With the comment about amateurs I meant that we can be more uninhibited to make guesses than the people who have professional reputation at stake. Many people writing on this forum are showing little self scrutiny, professionals are worried about making statements which can be shown to have been poorly evaluated. Amateurs rarely have spent the amount of time developing knowledge of the field which I would expect of a professional. We also lack access to information and the contact with knowledgeable people which have an interest in us gaining knowledge such as an academic supervisor might have.


Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on August 14, 2016, 04:39:47 AM

The more I read about the Arctic, the more complicated I anticipate any predictive model would be.   One thing seems certain, there is more thermal energy in the Arctic than in the past few years, more heat from the atmosphere, and (though hard to prove) more heat in the water forming the Atlantic Water layer. How these interact, how it affects the weather, how that effects the regions exposed to sunlight and snow cover all seem to have a huge impact on what we consider defining metrics of the state of the Arctic sea ice extent. It is hard to model; it's complicated.

What we can be sure of is the first statement. The world is hotter, there is more energy in the Arctic. The world's climate changing at an unprecedented rate, and, I fear, It's going to be a huge challenge to my children's generation.

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Michael Hauber on August 15, 2016, 03:24:28 AM
It seems to me that more pulverized ice would add sea ice extent faster than an equal area of solid ice.  The reason being that pulverized ice has a large area of open water close to the ice edge, which must be nearly at freezing point, and will therefore freeze over more or less instantly.  In contrast with one solid area there is only likely to be a small area of water near the ice boundary that is close to freezing point, and most of the rest of the water will be above freezing point requiring significant cooling before it can freeze.

I can't see why the salinity or stability of the water underneath would do anything to change this.  Is this about bottom freezing?  I would naively expect that bottom freezing is determined by the thickness of the ice (thicker ice insulates better and freezes slower) and the air temperature below.  Does proximity to open water change this in some way?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 15, 2016, 03:55:06 AM
Michael,
I think what you wrote might be true for ice in fresh water, but in sea water, the water has to get much colder in order to extract the salt.  "Old" ice in sea water will be stable in temperatures no new ice can form in.   (All this is true if I've learned what others have taught in these threads correctly.)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on August 15, 2016, 05:35:39 AM

You repeat the idea of dispersed ice forming nuclei for crystalization. This is nonsense at the scale of the arctic ocean and you simply ignore any opportunity to learn more about this.
Ice will form more easily and quickly between dispersed ice floes than on a large expanse of open water. The question which matters is: what does that mean for heat loss from the ocean. I have adressed that above but you seem to pay no notice to it. You would not be the first chemist with a poor ability to think scientifically I have come across, but you should at least be aware of your limitations and not mistake vague analogy for science.

Ice yoyeur is right in pointing to the asymmetry in the processes of melting and freezing: the process of solidifying water is happening in a situation where transfer of heat into the water is different from transfer of heat out of the water, salt is concentrated in sea water during freezing which produces buoyant ice, the convection currents for melting and freezing are not reversible.


Thanks for the lessons Andreas.  I didn't ignore what you said.  I just didn't understand it as being a direct or even indirect response to something I had said previously. 

I have no doubt I don't understand all the variables in this complex multi-variable system like you do.  But I don't think it's far-fetched to assume that if highly dispersed ice promotes melting because of higher surface area of the ice-water interface, the same ought to be true for refreezing. 

And sorry to refer to this process as "reversible" and at "equilibrium".  I do recognize that sea ice usually melts at about 0 degrees C, while ice forms when ocean water is cooled to about -1.8 degrees C.  So yes, it's not a perfect mirror image.

I feel it a major consolation that you agreed with me that more dispersed ice should hasten refreeze albeit for reasons much more nuanced and well-thought out.  Thanks for tossing me a bone.

My point, however, was not to repeat the "seed crystal" analogy but rather to respond to a point made by someone else that dispersed ice should hasten melting.  In fact, your point seems to show that dispersed ice per se would not have this effect in this complex system and that other factors are at work.  If so, fine.  I don't pretend to know that much.  I'm taking baby steps and thought that if the statement that dispersed ice promotes melting did not cause any notice or criticism it must have been generally accepted as true.  My comment was simply one of perceived symmetry of the effects of the surface area of the ice-water interface.  If true, and perhaps it's not, that the increased surface area of the sea ice-ocean water interface can promote faster melting when conditions are favorable for melting, the reverse should be true - the same increased surface area of the sea ice-ocean water interface should promote refreezing when conditions are favorable for refreezing.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Andreas T on August 15, 2016, 09:25:50 AM
This is where the details matter. Yes increased surface area increases the heat transfer from water to ice. And if water receives heat from elsewhere it will melt the ice, if ice transfers more heat away than the water recieves, it will freeze the water. That is plain thermodynamics.
The thing is that we are looking at that process in an ocean of salt water which recieves heat by shortwavelengths of EM radiation and emits it by longwavelength, where meltwater is cold and buoyant, where salt water melts ice at -1.5o. Where water absorbs heat when it isn't covered by ice but doesn't when a thin layer of ice reflects that shortwave radiation so only a small fraction of it reaches that water.
Then the logic you apply to the question is not valid. I don't have more time right now but may come back to this later.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on August 15, 2016, 06:15:03 PM
My point, however, was not to repeat the "seed crystal" analogy but rather to respond to a point made by someone else that dispersed ice should hasten melting.  In fact, your point seems to show that dispersed ice per se would not have this effect in this complex system and that other factors are at work. 

Completely contrary both to fact and what's been presented.  Very simply - dispersed ice means greater surface area exposed to heat, both directly through side melt and indirectly via increased uptake of heat from insolation, or, heat retrieved from depth via increased circulation caused by movement (Ekman pumping).  There is more to it, but just these facts break your hypothesis.

If so, fine.  I don't pretend to know that much.  I'm taking baby steps and thought that if the statement that dispersed ice promotes melting did not cause any notice or criticism it must have been generally accepted as true.  My comment was simply one of perceived symmetry of the effects of the surface area of the ice-water interface. If true, and perhaps it's not, that the increased surface area of the sea ice-ocean water interface can promote faster melting when conditions are favorable for melting, the reverse should be true - the same increased surface area of the sea ice-ocean water interface should promote refreezing when conditions are favorable for refreezing.

Two words:  Hysteresis and Enthalpy.  Systemically , how conditions change over time in the arctic - including the mechanics of re-growing the Arctic pack suffer from Hysteresis - the way the system changes lags behind those supported by current forces in play.

Secondly we have enthalpy - the total heat in the system - which has increased monstrously over the last 3 decades and that increase is accelerating, due to increased input of heat into it from multiple sources which are catching up with changing conditions; and Further, is not being reduced in the refreeze season at a rate which offsets the new inputs.  The heat we had last winter with the absurdly low ice maxima and 30C+ positive temperature anomalies is testimony to that.  I actually found that far more terrifying than the collapse of the pack in 2012, and I think it may be just as significant, if not more.

Dispersed ice will have virtually no effect one way or another on the refreeze.  It will be governed entirely by two things - the current enthalpy of the system, and how fast the system can transport that heat out of the top of the atmosphere.  In this, the formation ice is a net hindrance, as it reduces circulation, convective transfer and evaporative transfer of heat.  Conduction through ice is a poor replacement.  I'd say hope for cold temperatures and open water as long as possible.  It's how the ice will be preserved.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Andreas T on August 16, 2016, 01:50:55 AM
My comment this morning was written in a hurry and in retrospect isn't very informative. One thing to mention is that breaking ice into smaller floes and spreading them over a larger area of water is not actually increasing the surface area of the ice by much because floes are so thin relative to their size: breaking a 1m thick 10kmx10km floe into 100 1kmx1km floes increases surface area from  100.04km2 to 100.22km2 if I don't count the top surface. To have a significant increase the pieces must be much smaller because the ice is relatively thin and therefore has an already large surface area per volume. This has already been discussed on the forum and is not in dispute.
Because ice cover reduces the absorption of solar radiation by water by reflection a coherent area of ice cover means the majority of heating of water takes place further away from the ice. Some of that heat is likely to be lost to the atmosphere rather than get to the ice before the melt season ends.
Another effect, mentioned by JD, which differentiates between contigeous and dispersed ice cover is mixing: the melting ice freshens the upper water layer, under an ice cover this can protect the ice from saltier water which melts ice at lower temperature. Increased relative movement of water and ice which I expect to occur with more dispersed ice will increase the convection which increases the rate of melting.
So unless the dispersed ice cover has effects on fog and cloud which reduces heating, I do expect more volume to melt if ice is dispersed.

Now to the freezing. I have attached a still from Obuoy12 last year. What I think this shows (although in mid August it was still too warm to last) is how the ice provides calm water where snow can float on the surface and would in colder weather freeze into an ice layer which eventually covers the gap between the floes. Again it is not the surface area of the ice which is significant but the way the presence of ice affects the movement of water.
Again radiation plays a role: both water and ice loose heat by thermal IR, but the ice surface reaches lower temperature because convection in the water brings warmer water to the surface. That cold ice cools air which helps to cool the water surface. As is often stated, air temperatures have to be well below freezing to form ice on water which in its bulk is actually not yet at its freezing point. As JD writes, a quickly formed ice layer can actually reduce heat loss from the bulk of the water. Again it is reduced movement under the ice which slows the inevitable heat transfer from warmer water to colder ice. So faster freeze counterintuitively does not mean increased heat loss, it means heat is lost from a relatively small volume of surface water which turns to ice and then impedes cooling of the rest of the water column.

This is how I think understanding of the mechanisms involved provides insights where analogies and generalizations can mislead.

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Juan C. García on August 16, 2016, 02:40:06 AM
My comment this morning was written in a hurry and in retrospect isn't very informative. One thing to mention is that breaking ice into smaller floes and spreading them over a larger area of water is not actually increasing the surface area of the ice by much because floes are so thin relative to their size: breaking a 1m thick 10kmx10km floe into 100 1kmx1km floes increases surface area from  100.04km2 to 100.22km2 if I don't count the top surface.

I made this calculations:
__________________

On a floe 1m thick 10kmx10km:
One side: 10km long x 1 meter thick = 10 km2
Because there are four similar sides: 10 km2 x 4 = 40 km2
Because it is only one floe: Total: 40 x 1 = 40 km2

__________________
On the other hand, on 100 floes, 1m thick 1kmx1km:
One side: 1km long x 1 meter thick = 1 km2
Because there are four similar sides: 1 km2 x 4 = 4 km2
Because there are 100 floes: Total: 4 x 100 = 400 km2

__________________
Edit: This is not counting the top and bottom faces, that have the same area (total 100 km2 top and 100 km2 bottom).

Sorry. My mistake. I will correct my comment!
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Juan C. García on August 16, 2016, 03:09:45 AM
I made this calculations:
__________________

On a floe 1m thick 10kmx10km:
One side: 10km long x 1 meter thick (0.001 km) = 0.01 km2
Because there are four similar sides: 0.01 km2 x 4 = 0.04 km2
Because it is only one floe: Total: 0.04 x 1 = 0.04 km2

Including the bottom face: 100.04 km2, if 100% of the side faces are in contact with the water.

__________________
On the other hand, on 100 floes, 1m thick 1kmx1km:
One side: 1km long x 0.001 km thick = 0.001 km2
Because there are four similar sides: 0.001 km2 x 4 = 0.004 km2
Because there are 100 floes: Total: 0.004 x 100 = 0.4 km2

Including the bottom face: 100.4 km2, if 100% the side faces are in contact with the water.

__________________
This is not counting the top face.
Sorry for my first comment.   :-X
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Andreas T on August 16, 2016, 01:49:30 PM
Thank you Juan, you are right of course, I should have doubled the "break" lines because they create new surfaces on both sides of the break!  :-[  Thats the danger of posting past bedtime, and the benefit of critical readers putting it right when mistakes are made!
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Juan C. García on August 17, 2016, 01:12:40 AM
Thank you Juan, you are right of course, I should have doubled the "break" lines because they create new surfaces on both sides of the break!  :-[  Thats the danger of posting past bedtime, and the benefit of critical readers putting it right when mistakes are made!

You are welcome, Andreas T. The true is that I could not believe that the difference was so little, so I checked it. As you, should not post on the Forum late at night (I live at Mexico). But it is a routine to check Bremen, ADS and Neven's Forum before I go to bed. So I also made a mistake (huge in my case), thinking that the difference was bigger.
The true is that 100.22 or 100.4 km2 is the same (it is not relevant), so you are right.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Juan C. García on August 17, 2016, 01:50:19 AM
I still believe that one hundred floes of 1x1 km are more vulnerable than 1 floe of 10x10 km. I would say that the difference is important if there are long waves or swell in the Arctic Ocean and we take into account the top surface.
Assuming strong waves (5 meters high, by example) that are able to wash 100 meters of one side of a floe:
___________________
On the 10x10 km floe:
The washed area on the top surface will be: 10 km x 0.1 km = 1 km2
Because it is just one floe, the total area wet or washed will be 1 km2.
___________________
In the other hand, with 100 floes, 1km x 1 km each:
The washed area on the top surface on one floe will be: 1 km x 0.1 km = 0.1 km2
Because there are 100 hundred floes: 0.1 km2 x 100 = 10 km2
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So the washed area on 100 (1x1km) floes is 10 times bigger than the washed area of the one (10x10 km) floe. Of course, that should induce more melting on the ice, if the waves are coming periodically.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: abbottisgone on August 21, 2016, 09:21:40 AM
I still believe that one hundred floes of 1x1 km are more vulnerable than 1 floe of 10x10 km. I would say that the difference is important if there are long waves or swell in the Arctic Ocean and we take into account the top surface.
Assuming strong waves (5 meters high, by example) that are able to wash 100 meters of one side of a floe:
___________________
On the 10x10 km floe:
The washed area on the top surface will be: 10 km x 0.1 km = 1 km2
Because it is just one floe, the total area wet or washed will be 1 km2.
___________________
In the other hand, with 100 floes, 1km x 1 km each:
The washed area on the top surface on one floe will be: 1 km x 0.1 km = 0.1 km2
Because there are 100 hundred floes: 0.1 km2 x 100 = 10 km2
___________________
So the washed area on 100 (1x1km) floes is 10 times bigger than the washed area of the one (10x10 km) floe. Of course, that should induce more melting on the ice, if the waves are coming periodically.
It's a surface area argument essentially...

Is this correct: if hot goes to cold- as the first law of thermodynamics says- then the heat from the spark plug is trying to find the relative cold surface of the fuel. All the shaping of the chamber and engineering of a misted fuel load injection and so forth is simply to maximise this basic physical need of all object?

Assuming I am half correct then heat content from the ocean will enjoy as much surface contact with sea ice as possible! (??)

DID I GET IT RIGHT?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: 2phil4u on August 21, 2016, 07:59:24 PM
I was also thinking about some effects of the storm, for example more saltheavy water from depth was going up and of course it will later refreeze but in absolute, there is coming heat from the ocean and is going into space.
And today wipneus data shows an uptick.
MAybe all the heat went to the ice has also a big positive effect total also because of low temperatures at 945er level.
So like the poster before, if water with higher temps come over ice, then this water will cool down and in winter maybe this effect didnt matter at all for the next season.
Also saw that thaw daying is not that difference between 80s and now but winter temperatures was much higher.
But we have El Nina, maybe the cliff is not there the next few years.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Juan C. García on August 22, 2016, 06:49:05 AM
It's a surface area argument essentially...
DID I GET IT RIGHT?

Yes. it's a surface argument essentially.

My comment didn't get into thermodynamics, it is just about the perimeter of the floes:

       One floe of 10 x 10 km: Perimeter = 10 x 4 = 40 km2.
       One hundred floes of 1 x 1 km: Perimeter = 100 x 1 x 4 = 400 km2.

So, the perimeter of the 100 1x1 floes is 10 times the perimeter of the one 10x10 floe.
If there is some activity related to the perimeter (or like waves making an area related to the perimeter), the 100 smaller floes will be more vulnerable than the bigger floe.

Edit: Maybe in the freezing season, the effect will be the contrary: If the perimeter promotes the freezing, then the freezing will be stronger with the 100 smaller floes.  :)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: icy voyeur on August 22, 2016, 09:55:09 AM

Is this correct: if hot goes to cold- as the first law of thermodynamics says- then the heat from the spark plug is trying to find the relative cold surface of the fuel. All the shaping of the chamber and engineering of a misted fuel load injection and so forth is simply to maximise this basic physical need of all object?

No. Yuck. Please don't do that again. It's obscene.
A spark isn't trying to do anything. It just is. The spark is disconnected from later consequence, how well fuel is mixed with oxygen, shape of a cylinder or your need for speed. The spark depends on the potential and the dielectric with various 2nd and 3rd order effects which are mostly corrects to the dielectric. 

Beyond that, and this relates to ice melting and freezing, other dynamics are in play than just thermodynamics. Kinetics, convection, diffusion and more. Equilibrium style thermodynamics sets some limits, informs on how the kinetics of various processes changes with T but it's really very complex.

Consider the dual gradients of T and salinity in the water column. Model it as the consequence of what are differential equations involving the rates of diffusion, convection, turbulence, radiation, heat of fusion at the ice/water interface, salt exclusion and on. Simplify it to competing rates. Water pours into a jug at a fixed rate. As the jug fills, increasing the water column, a hole in the bottom of the jug leaks more and more water. Except that can be modeled by a simple differential equation and for freezing/thawing we have so many more variable.

Now it's perfectly reasonable to attempt to consider a single effect, to model a simplified system, or otherwise speculate but please, don't begin with completely bogus physics. Systems don't "want" to do things, or "try" to reach equilibrium or move heat. But I've ranted enough. Bad thermo does that to me.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on August 22, 2016, 11:07:51 AM

Is this correct: if hot goes to cold- as the first law of thermodynamics says- then the heat from the spark plug is trying to find the relative cold surface of the fuel. All the shaping of the chamber and engineering of a misted fuel load injection and so forth is simply to maximise this basic physical need of all object?

No. Yuck. Please don't do that again. It's obscene.
A spark isn't trying to do anything. It just is. The spark is disconnected from later consequence, how well fuel is mixed with oxygen, shape of a cylinder or your need for speed. The spark depends on the potential and the dielectric with various 2nd and 3rd order effects which are mostly corrects to the dielectric. 

Beyond that, and this relates to ice melting and freezing, other dynamics are in play than just thermodynamics. Kinetics, convection, diffusion and more. Equilibrium style thermodynamics sets some limits, informs on how the kinetics of various processes changes with T but it's really very complex.

Consider the dual gradients of T and salinity in the water column. Model it as the consequence of what are differential equations involving the rates of diffusion, convection, turbulence, radiation, heat of fusion at the ice/water interface, salt exclusion and on. Simplify it to competing rates. Water pours into a jug at a fixed rate. As the jug fills, increasing the water column, a hole in the bottom of the jug leaks more and more water. Except that can be modeled by a simple differential equation and for freezing/thawing we have so many more variable.

Now it's perfectly reasonable to attempt to consider a single effect, to model a simplified system, or otherwise speculate but please, don't begin with completely bogus physics. Systems don't "want" to do things, or "try" to reach equilibrium or move heat. But I've ranted enough. Bad thermo does that to me.

I would disagree with ^ assertion.

This is slightly off-topic but I would use the below as evidence that there is intention behind systems and that they do not merely exist in a vacuum, they behave with *some* sort of intent.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermat%27s_principle

If light can have intention (i.e., the moment it originates, it already knows its eventual end-point which is how it can take the shortest path possible), then why wouldn't other physical systems express similarly?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on August 22, 2016, 05:52:04 PM
Wow... No please. There is no "intent' in the universe. Particles might have a defined path from there initial characteristics but do not confuse that with design. We often explain concepts with 'want' or 'need', because it allows easier comprehension, but that's for high school. A photon does not have a consciousness that is implied by 'intent'
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: icy voyeur on August 22, 2016, 07:56:53 PM
I would disagree with ^ assertion.

This is slightly off-topic but I would use the below as evidence that there is intention behind systems and that they do not merely exist in a vacuum, they behave with *some* sort of intent.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermat%27s_principle

If light can have intention (i.e., the moment it originates, it already knows its eventual end-point which is how it can take the shortest path possible), then why wouldn't other physical systems express similarly?

Wrong forum to continue to discuss Fermat's principle, Schrödinger's cat, tunneling, or Maxwell's Demon, but your interpretation of Fermat is wrong.  Frankly, I can't even guess how you came to that interpretation. Almost wish I did.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Iceismylife on August 22, 2016, 08:37:58 PM
I would disagree with ^ assertion.

This is slightly off-topic but I would use the below as evidence that there is intention behind systems and that they do not merely exist in a vacuum, they behave with *some* sort of intent.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermat%27s_principle

If light can have intention (i.e., the moment it originates, it already knows its eventual end-point which is how it can take the shortest path possible), then why wouldn't other physical systems express similarly?

Wrong forum to continue to discuss Fermat's principle, Schrödinger's cat, tunneling, or Maxwell's Demon, but your interpretation of Fermat is wrong.  Frankly, I can't even guess how you came to that interpretation. Almost wish I did.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1655.0.html

I'd like to talk more about this so I started a thread in the off topic section.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: TerryM on August 26, 2016, 08:27:01 PM
Any thoughts on whether these late storms, by mixing the upper strata of the water column, then exposing this mixed column to the atmosphere in the following months, contributes to very high ice numbers in the following melt season?
2012 had a fairly late, very strong and longlasting arctic storm which helped produce the record melt numbers of that year. Did the storm also contribute to the rebound experienced in 2013?
It seems as though. by mixing the upper, fresh strata with the lower warmer/saltier layers, that during winter months the convection required before ice can grow would extend to a much deeper level than what would have been the case if no storm had occurred.
This thicker 'mixed' strata would be cooler and less able contributing to bottom melt during the next melt season.
A storm occurring early in the melt season, while more ice cover was in place, would contribute much less mixing either by wave action or Ekman pumping, and therefore would have less effect on the following seasons.
Based on this I'm now expecting 2017 to be a 'rebound' year, similar to 2013.
Terry
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: 2phil4u on August 28, 2016, 06:36:59 PM
I also think about this, freshwater on the surface freezing over can not export that much heat then saltier water in winter, so ohc should go down (if you only consider this).
I also feel that open water at n80 now with storms, esp in late september can have good effects.
But there is also stuff in internet, sorry for my bad englisch, that if water is warmer and startet melting earlyer it can give more heat and grow later but much faster in winter because it has time to mix with lower layers and so of course overall give more energy to space, but of course early openwater in summer also will reduce albedo, so this is the other factor.
But i think if storms are late and we dont count something like fraimtransport or multiyear ice it should have positive effects, not sure if this compensate or even overcompensate the damage, but if end august or early september it surely will end up to give more heat to space, but if this heat is from south and south isnt important it might be not this good as it seems from this standpoint of view.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: abbottisgone on August 30, 2016, 10:45:18 AM
I appreciate the information I've just received.

No, but seriously, I will try and speak a little more correctly.

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: iceman on September 02, 2016, 12:10:15 PM
for your October viewing pleasure: the Wrangel Stump regrows and seeks out its phantom lower limb, which is reconstituting itself from the seawater and a few scattered bones
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on September 02, 2016, 03:57:16 PM
Any thoughts on whether these late storms, by mixing the upper strata of the water column, then exposing this mixed column to the atmosphere in the following months, contributes to very high ice numbers in the following melt season?
2012 had a fairly late, very strong and longlasting arctic storm which helped produce the record melt numbers of that year. Did the storm also contribute to the rebound experienced in 2013?
It seems as though. by mixing the upper, fresh strata with the lower warmer/saltier layers, that during winter months the convection required before ice can grow would extend to a much deeper level than what would have been the case if no storm had occurred.
This thicker 'mixed' strata would be cooler and less able contributing to bottom melt during the next melt season.
A storm occurring early in the melt season, while more ice cover was in place, would contribute much less mixing either by wave action or Ekman pumping, and therefore would have less effect on the following seasons.
Based on this I'm now expecting 2017 to be a 'rebound' year, similar to 2013.
Terry
I came to this thread with these same thoughts. The GAC or PAC-MAN or whatever it's called is sucking heat out of the ocean, potentially setting up a rebound year. It's far from certain as AGW is more advanced than in 2013, the Atlantic is making inroads into the Arctic, and the state of the remaining ice at season's end is terrible. But still, raiding the heat piggy bank this year might leave less for next year.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: mmghosh on September 02, 2016, 05:02:06 PM
Lets not forget the thermal inertia of water.  It is very possible that 2017 could be a record low.  2016 July still came in as the hottest ever, in spite of a fading el Nino.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201607 (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201607)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Lord M Vader on September 02, 2016, 05:59:20 PM
About the idea that late season storms affects next seasons melt season I must ask if there wasn't a intensive cyclone roaring over the Arctic in august 1995? If so, it's worth to mention that 1996 was one of the lousiest and coldest melting seasons we have seen in modern times, perhaps THE coldest one wrt 925 hpa temps from A. Slaters page.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on September 02, 2016, 08:04:23 PM

I found this paper on the effects of freezing on the Arctic/Atlantic and heat and freshwater budgets

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JC011045/full (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JC011045/full)

There is a really good introduction on the history of analysis on the Arctic/Atlantic interaction.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Dundee on September 03, 2016, 01:24:45 AM

I found this paper on the effects of freezing on the Arctic/Atlantic and heat and freshwater budgets

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JC011045/full (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JC011045/full)

There is a really good introduction on the history of analysis on the Arctic/Atlantic interaction.

Not light reading, but should perhaps be required reading. I suspect this is about as simple a description as can be made of the role of ice in the interaction of the atmosphere, the deeper ocean proper, and the surface low-salinity lens.

If, before exclaiming "well, that must mean . . . " or "this observation means that this result must surely follow", one does not have a basic understanding of the one dimensional models presented in this paper as well as the underlying assumptions and simplifications included in them (as well as how, where, and why they would no longer be valid and the resulting implications), then it would be fair to state the exclaimer needs to do more homework.

In the forum we tend to speak more of the latent heat of fusion than of evaporation, but I suspect water entering and leaving the atmosphere has a lot to do with some things that happen in the Arctic that are otherwise inexplicable. One specific case is the nearly complete decoupling of ice conditions before roughly the equinox on the subsequent peak - changes in evaporation/ precipitation are more than influential enough (so far) to rein things back in.

I also note the paper succinctly discounts the impact that obstructing water flow though the Bering Strait would have on the overall Arctic heat balance.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on September 03, 2016, 03:52:15 AM

Not light reading, but should perhaps be required reading....

I agree, I read it once through, drew some conclusions, debunked those conclusions on a second read. It is not light, but it's also extremely well written, and I think very relevant to what we are going to see over the next few months in the Laptev, Kara and in the Barents; particularly in light of the current storms and the energy budget that they attribute to water in the atmosphere.

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on September 06, 2016, 07:37:06 PM
From the melting season thread I repost on an interesting remark by A-Team
...
It's not clear whether BB will melt out this season or remain as a few raisins in the re-freeze pudding. The Beaufort appears to be very close to melt equilibrium.

The same analysis could be done for the Wrangel arm and Chukchi. There too the trend is off and on but perhaps still slightly down, again suggesting early September conditions close to a phase boundary.
...


Either this map is completely wrong or the Pacific half of the Arctic is far from being in "melt equilibrium". If for melt equilibrium is meant freezing point.  Very curious to see the evolution of SSTs as the temperatures gradually drop.

Now I wonder what could be understood by "melt equilibrium" in the Arctic if it is not melting point. Perhaps there is a definition out there.
It may happen that surviving floes cool down surrounding water enough to create first ice structures out from the water surface, but bottom melting continues and lateral melting too in the smallest floes. Perhaps the equilibrium occurs when the propagation of this new ice is fast enough. Then the new ice area grows at the same rate as the area decrease of the small floes still melting out. This can happen only once the water is cold enough. The SST far from the ice can still be greater than melting temperature so long as the heat flux from the warmer water by mixing does not overwhelm the heat released by the cooling water around the bigger floes and to the atmosphere.
Any comment appreciated. It is going to be interesting in the next weeks, I guess.

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: JimboOmega on September 08, 2016, 08:15:20 PM
Any thoughts on whether these late storms, by mixing the upper strata of the water column, then exposing this mixed column to the atmosphere in the following months, contributes to very high ice numbers in the following melt season?
2012 had a fairly late, very strong and longlasting arctic storm which helped produce the record melt numbers of that year. Did the storm also contribute to the rebound experienced in 2013?
It seems as though. by mixing the upper, fresh strata with the lower warmer/saltier layers, that during winter months the convection required before ice can grow would extend to a much deeper level than what would have been the case if no storm had occurred.
This thicker 'mixed' strata would be cooler and less able contributing to bottom melt during the next melt season.
A storm occurring early in the melt season, while more ice cover was in place, would contribute much less mixing either by wave action or Ekman pumping, and therefore would have less effect on the following seasons.
Based on this I'm now expecting 2017 to be a 'rebound' year, similar to 2013.
Terry
I came to this thread with these same thoughts. The GAC or PAC-MAN or whatever it's called is sucking heat out of the ocean, potentially setting up a rebound year. It's far from certain as AGW is more advanced than in 2013, the Atlantic is making inroads into the Arctic, and the state of the remaining ice at season's end is terrible. But still, raiding the heat piggy bank this year might leave less for next year.

Do we think there's less overall heat than there was in 2012... or 2015?  Will the waters be slower to freeze.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Andreas T on September 09, 2016, 11:12:01 PM
As an illustration of the effect that the presence of ice has on heat loss from the ocean as input from sun and atmosphere diminishes, here are some IR images from wordview band 31  http://go.nasa.gov/2crFbvP (http://go.nasa.gov/2crFbvP)
Ice surface cools quickly and strongly, water, which was almost indistinguishable from ice in the summer, shows up as warmer leads, and floes show different surface temperatures presumably due to different thickness.
This is also seen among the more dispersed ice, the colder ice surface reduces heat loss from water beneath it compared to open water, yet air which moves from cold ice to warmer water can support freeze up of adjoining water surfaces as described in earlier comments.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on September 10, 2016, 04:28:22 AM
New ice is forming around the "shoulder" area, filling in some of the holes.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on September 15, 2016, 12:48:39 AM
Euro forecast, next four days. Cold storm; 30 kt, near gale-force winds on wide open peripheral seas.
Poll: should we place this gif at the melting season thread instead? 8)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on September 15, 2016, 02:16:58 AM
Yes, it's a strong storm and an interesting question whether it could potentially reverse at least some of the refreeze.

Currently near the North Pole and at 988 hPa, GFS at Tropicaltidbits predicts it to bottom out in around 36 hours, at 976 hPa, and to endure for about a week at below 990 hPa, located in the Arctic Basin and mainly off the Canadian Arctic coast.

What will that do to the newly formed refreeze ice?  :-\
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 15, 2016, 04:44:08 AM
Animation is on the right thread and studying winter storms in the new Arctic is certainly worth the effort. With all of this open water, storms should be able to pull energy from the ocean and affect the freeze in ways that the ice covered Arctic of the 1980's would not have allowed.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on September 15, 2016, 02:18:34 PM
GFS shows the cyclone persisting in the 970-980 hPa range for 120 hours starting later today (actually two lows with a brief 18h of minimum above 980 hPa in between).
ECMWF predicts a cyclone somewhat weaker.

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: be cause on September 15, 2016, 02:25:56 PM
GEM was well ahead in predicting current developments . At the moment it's 240 has a central Arctic storm below 960 ! 

Anyway enjoy the journey through the Northern winter and thanks to all on board for the science and opinions shared . bc
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 15, 2016, 03:16:01 PM
Last winter I lamented the fact that so many regular visitors disappeared. I spent the entire winter here and it was an amazing winter indeed, a record low maximum. I understand that the Arctic summers can be riveting but if we really want to understand how AGW is affecting the Arctic, it is just as important that we follow the Arctic winter. This includes the large positive anomalies for NH snow cover in the winter, the rapid melt of that same snow so that we have huge negative NH snow cover anomalies in the Spring. How are the warm Arctic Winters and the large stretches of open water contributing to these anomalies? What effect might these early snow blankets have on the thawing permafrost as it insulates the permafrost from the winter cold? It can't be good as it can only increase the areas of discontinuous permafrost. What about deep snow cover on the refreezing ocean. Wouldn't this also inhibit the growth of the sea ice in the winter?

What do stormy fall seas mean for the freeze season. How might it alter the nature and quality of FYI? I am fascinated by waves and the emerging physical structures we find in the sea ice, widely fractured with less and less ice that can be found as huge, very stable and relatively immobile flows. I believe our mild winters, later freezes and newly stormy winter Arctic has a dramatic impact on the physical nature of the ice, its integrity and the nature of the following melt season.

This melt season was riveting. I expect this winter freeze season to be as well.

Pass the popcorn.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: budmantis on September 15, 2016, 03:34:59 PM
This melt season was riveting. I expect this winter freeze season to be as well.

Pass the popcorn.

I'll take mine with extra butter! I like your post SH and by this time every year, I quickly lost interest in the Forum once the minimum was declared. I plan on hanging around through the winter as I've discovered there is more to Arctic sea ice than the melt season.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on September 15, 2016, 03:38:06 PM
This melt season was riveting. I expect this winter freeze season to be as well.
Great post SH. I think it would be useful to put a copy on the melting season thread too, for those who only read it and not much else.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 15, 2016, 05:57:22 PM
We're definitely in the freezing season now, so here's the Kap Morris Jesup area from the 13th:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201617-images/#CAB (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201617-images/#CAB)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Andreas T on September 15, 2016, 09:09:06 PM
the characteristic "shades" of  more recent and older leads are now showing where water that has been exposed for longer than a couple of days is gaining an ice cover visible in the satellite image.

Oden, on the way south further east is reporting air temperature of -8.6 with a northwesterly (290) wind http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=SMLQ (http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=SMLQ)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on September 15, 2016, 10:43:45 PM
My point, however, was not to repeat the "seed crystal" analogy but rather to respond to a point made by someone else that dispersed ice should hasten melting.   

Completely contrary both to fact and what's been presented.  Very simply - dispersed ice means greater surface area exposed to heat, both directly through side melt and indirectly via increased uptake of heat from insolation, or, heat retrieved from depth via increased circulation caused by movement (Ekman pumping).  There is more to it, but just these facts break your hypothesis.

Two words:  Hysteresis and Enthalpy.  Systemically , how conditions change over time in the arctic - including the mechanics of re-growing the Arctic pack suffer from Hysteresis - the way the system changes lags behind those supported by current forces in play.

Secondly we have enthalpy - the total heat in the system - which has increased monstrously over the last 3 decades and that increase is accelerating, due to increased input of heat into it from multiple sources which are catching up with changing conditions; and Further, is not being reduced in the refreeze season at a rate which offsets the new inputs.  The heat we had last winter with the absurdly low ice maxima and 30C+ positive temperature anomalies is testimony to that.  I actually found that far more terrifying than the collapse of the pack in 2012, and I think it may be just as significant, if not more.

Dispersed ice will have virtually no effect one way or another on the refreeze.  It will be governed entirely by two things - the current enthalpy of the system, and how fast the system can transport that heat out of the top of the atmosphere.  In this, the formation ice is a net hindrance, as it reduces circulation, convective transfer and evaporative transfer of heat.  Conduction through ice is a poor replacement.  I'd say hope for cold temperatures and open water as long as possible.  It's how the ice will be preserved.

Wonderful explanation!  To summarize.  Your points regarding hysteresis, enthalpy, rate of heat transfer, circulation, and conduction means that the highly dispersed ice we saw in summer of 2016 will not per se affect the rate at which ice melts during the melt season nor the rate at which it refreezes during the refreeze season.  The ice dispersal is merely a symptom, not a cause, of the totality of the system.  If true, that refutes the point I was refuting in the first place.  Thank you for the assist.  :)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on September 15, 2016, 11:11:49 PM
Anyway, to summarize the arguments and the observed data.  Andreas T and JD Allen stated that the highly dispersed ice would not affect the rate of ice refreezing because the rate of ice refreeze is dependent upon more important factors.  The converse also appears to be true, and it was borne out by the behavior of the ice this summer, that the highly dispersed ice does not and did not affect the rate of ice melt but was merely a symptom of the state of the overall system.

The ice extent through June-August held up better than predicted when it was near record lows earlier in the melt season during March-May.  (Sorry Professor Wadhams - Arctic ice lives at least one more year!)  The fast drop near the end of the melt season occurred after the Arctic cyclone, meaning that the drop was mainly the result of compaction and some Fram export rather than accelerated melting due to highly dispersed ice.  The hypothesis I was commenting on was by a poster who stated that highly dispersed ice has higher surface area exposed to water and air capable of melting ice and that this should hasten the rate of ice melt.  Obviously it didn't based on the record, and this is consistent with the fine explanations provided by Andreas T and JD Allen.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 15, 2016, 11:54:02 PM
The latest cyclone is down to 980 hPa:

http://weather.gc.ca/analysis/index_e.html (http://weather.gc.ca/analysis/index_e.html)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on September 16, 2016, 12:44:22 AM
There is a reason to believe dispersed ice (or a greater extension of broken ice edge) may have an initial positive impact on refreezing, and is that a big deal of the refreezing is seen to proceed as a propagating front.
Without entering into what the fundamental causes of this propagating nature can be, any process that evolves by propagation is initially more abundant the longer the initial interface is.
However as soon as the many propagation fronts gradually merge into two or three main fronts around the ice pack, there is no longer much difference regardless of the initial perimeter of the interface.
As I have been reading stuff about marginal ice zone lately (I posted a couple of refs in other comments sorry I am lazy) it may happen as well that a highly broken and extended edge may benefit (to some measure) faster loss of ice extent at the end of the season. The reason is quite different. It seems that the zone of very broken ice floes at the periphery of the pack exhibits a self-similar distribution of floe sizes after enough floe break-up has been caused by waves, winds, currents... That is, as you zoom in, you see a picture of dissimilar floes that in proportion look the same, whether the frame is 50km x 50km or 500m x 500m. As time goes on, the rate of floe meltout is highest for the smallest floes, while the bigger floes keep splitting without losing much area. Therefore a big proportion of the melting happens at the small-scale end of this distribution. This amount of floe breakup and final meltout is more abundant the more dispersed the pack is at the edges by August. Wasn't this stormy melting season, less dominated by surface melting, a good example?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: icy voyeur on September 16, 2016, 08:06:37 AM
Random thoughts about what makes for a good freezing season, and pondering the start of the refreeze and what might be some wind driven compaction: maybe this is a good start?
Maybe a few sessions of making ice followed by winds to pile it up and free up more surface? All the better to radiate away more of the ocean's heat? Of course the total latent heat is of the big concerns but what better way to let it radiate away than to have cold dry winds suck up moisture and pile up ice to free up surface water? Just late night musing.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 16, 2016, 02:46:22 PM
I am not sure these storms bring cold dry winds. Wouldn't this new stormy, warmer, winter Arctic be generally evidence of increased moisture? The polar region has been anomalously warm for a number of winters, north of 80 degrees. I expect this to continue. With the periodic collapse of the vortex and an increasing number of intrusions from the mid latitudes, I have to believe that humidity, dew points and precipitation in the polar region are on the rise. We are seeing large positive anomalies in NH snow cover. Isn't this evidence of increased moisture content?

Someone here said that increased moisture in the atmosphere brings a great deal more energy than higher temperatures. Did I get this right? Since H2O is a powerful greenhouse gas, acting as a blanket and holding heat in, couldn't this increased atmospheric moisture and cloudiness be contributing to the week freeze seasons we seem to be seeing?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 16, 2016, 03:34:14 PM
The Central Arctic cyclone is now down to 975 hPa MSLP, and I cannot help but wonder where Tropical Storm Ian is heading:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/september-arctic-cyclone-alert/ (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/september-arctic-cyclone-alert/)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on September 16, 2016, 10:30:35 PM
The Central Arctic cyclone is now down to 975 hPa MSLP, and I cannot help but wonder where Tropical Storm Ian is heading:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/september-arctic-cyclone-alert/ (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/september-arctic-cyclone-alert/)
I think, in so many words:  The Barents Sea

To be followed shortly thereafter by a visit to the CAB.

I'd say the Cyclone Cannon is starting to heat up.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 17, 2016, 12:05:48 AM
This could be an amazing freeze season.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on September 17, 2016, 12:33:19 AM
Wow did the cyclone strengthen in the Euro forecast too.
Although the storm helps maintain melting power in the open half of the Arctic for a while more, the pack is going to be inflated and cold air spread outwards from the CAB ice core.
The detached ice near Wrangel is really going to take that last beating anyway.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on September 17, 2016, 01:17:14 PM
This is the 5-day averaged GFS MSLP, with a sustained pattern that is not dilute by the averaging. Refreezing should continue advancing outwards from the central pack, but Beaufort sea won't see surface freezing anytime soon. Interesting situation of the detached Wrangel ice, where most probably bottom melting has not ceased yet but surface refreezing is building up. The storm may enhance both antagonistic processes simultaneously in this region...
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 17, 2016, 03:15:43 PM
Cross posted (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1493.msg90052.html#msg90052) from the "Melting season" thread.

Quote
Another cyclone => more "melting" in the CAB (and elsewhere):

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fforum.arctic-sea-ice.net%2Findex.php%3Faction%3Ddlattach%3Btopic%3D1493.0%3Battach%3D36333%3Bimage&hash=6c4cf424c882c174a0893f265ccd5b21)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Andreas T on September 17, 2016, 06:52:05 PM
A clear view of the sector which had the bite shows the refreeze with ice surface insulating the water surface. The colder ice looses less heat, thicker, older ice less than the younger thin stuff.

switch between IR and visible to see the streaks of ice forming as cold air blows off the ice.
http://go.nasa.gov/2d6habC (http://go.nasa.gov/2d6habC)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Kate on September 18, 2016, 02:02:58 PM
Lots of wind and waves will make the start of this year interesting to watch
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Andreas T on September 18, 2016, 04:19:06 PM
To adress the question whether the increase in ice area in the CAB is actual freezing ( new ice  forming at the sea surface) or spreading out of existing ice (Wayne seems to have that idea), I am comparing clear views of the 8th and 16th.http://go.nasa.gov/2d89TI8 (http://go.nasa.gov/2d89TI8) The area is the same as in the IR image I posted earlier.
marking recognizable floes I think it is clear that there is a thin layer of ice (the greyish stuff) which appears in addition to the whiter (thicker) ice which can be seen in the earlier shot.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on September 18, 2016, 05:45:43 PM
To adress the question whether the increase in ice area in the CAB is actual freezing ( new ice  forming at the sea surface) or spreading out of existing ice (Wayne seems to have that idea), I am comparing clear views of the 8th and 16th.http://go.nasa.gov/2d89TI8 (http://go.nasa.gov/2d89TI8) The area is the same as in the IR image I posted earlier.
marking recognizable floes I think it is clear that there is a thin layer of ice (the greyish stuff) which appears in addition to the whiter (thicker) ice which can be seen in the earlier shot.
Excellent stuff. Thanks.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 18, 2016, 05:49:18 PM
Lots of wind and waves will make the start of this year interesting to watch

The Barrow webcam is down. If it were working I'm sure it would show some waves. The current forecast:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/september-arctic-cyclone-alert/#Sep-17 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/september-arctic-cyclone-alert/#Sep-17)

Quote
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT MONDAY...

* WAVES AND SURF...WAVES TO 10 FEET BREAKING JUST OFFSHORE
  COMBINED WITH TIDES UP TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL CAUSE HIGH
  SURF CONDITIONS.

* ICE...WITH ICE JUST OFF SHORE FROM BARROW...IT IS POSSIBLE
  THAT CHUNKS OF SEA ICE WILL WASH UP ON SHORE EVEN WITH WINDS
  PREDICTED TO BE AT NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SHORE.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
  MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...HIGH SURF WILL WASH TO THE TOP OF THE BEACH AND
  CAUSE BEACH EROSION. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS
  POSSIBLE AND SURF COULD WASH ONTO LOW LYING ROADS NEAR THE
  BEACH.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on September 18, 2016, 10:39:44 PM
Quote
is ice in the CAB is new (forming at the sea surface) or old (existing ice spreading itself out) or some of both (what mix? are proportions stable?)
S2A had a clear view twelve days back looking north from Nansen Sound (between Ellesmere and Axel Heiberg). These images are very large because of the high resolution. It is tiled below from south to north.

It would be very instructive to continue the direction of your researches using all the applicable resources, especially color for S2A 10m.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Andreas T on September 19, 2016, 08:52:41 AM
Those closeups of ridged floes are interesting but to address the larger scale process your animation of UH AMSR2 is more useful
...
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fforum.arctic-sea-ice.net%2Findex.php%3Faction%3Ddlattach%3Btopic%3D1493.0%3Battach%3D36390&hash=7d678fd909d8aef1d01057835a2a0f11)
The expansion of the low concentration area while higher concentration features hardly move (at that scale) in the same direction is showing the same as the MODIS images above.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: ghoti on September 19, 2016, 04:25:39 PM
Look at the ground level photos by Wayne this week on his blog post:

http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/09/vast-expansion-of-scattered-sea-ice.html
 (http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/09/vast-expansion-of-scattered-sea-ice.html)

He shows areas of floating snow between established sea ice. It is a pretty clear example of how a September snowfall can result in fast expansion of first year ice area. I suppose you can debate whether the floating snow should be considered sea ice or not but it probably will freeze solid very quickly under cold calm conditions and much earlier than open water without snow.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Andreas T on September 19, 2016, 07:42:31 PM
Thanks for that link, ghoti, this helps to form an idea what it is we are looking at here. Given that the IR image shows lower brightness temperature for the grey areas I think it is more than a bit of snow floating in the water. But it is easy to imagine how cold air blowing from the cold ice further north has an easier job turning floating slush into ice than it has with salty sea water.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on September 19, 2016, 09:28:55 PM
Reinforcing Waynes point, plenty of ice
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcmems-view.cls.fr%2F%2FViewService%2Fscreenshots%2FcreateScreenshot%3Fdataset%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fthredds.met.no%252Fthredds%252Fwms%252Ftopaz%252Fdataset-topaz4-arc-myoceanv2-be%26amp%3BnumColorBands%3D20%26amp%3BlogScale%3Dfalse%26amp%3Bbbox%3D-1410644.53125%252C-480468.75%252C5410644.53125%252C4480468.75%26amp%3Babovemaxcolor%3D0x000000%26amp%3Bbelowmincolor%3D0x000000%26amp%3Bnodatacolor%3Dnull%26amp%3Blayer%3Dfice%26amp%3Btime%3D2016-09-20T00%25253A00%25253A00.000Z%26amp%3Bpalette%3Drainbow%26amp%3Bstyle%3Dboxfill%26amp%3BscaleRange%3D0%252C1%26amp%3BdisplayScaleRange%3D0%252C1%26amp%3Bopacity%3D1%26amp%3Bbbox%3D-1410644.53125%252C-480468.75%252C5410644.53125%252C4480468.75%26amp%3BlayerTitle%3Dsea_ice_area_fraction%252CArctic%2BOcean%2BPhysics%2BAnalysis%2Band%2BForecast%252C%2B12.5km%2Bdaily%2Bmean%2B%28dataset-topaz4-arc-myoceanv2-be%29%26amp%3Bcrs%3DEPSG%253A32661%26amp%3BmapHeight%3D800%26amp%3BmapWidth%3D1024%26amp%3Bstyle%3Dboxfill%26amp%3BzUnits%3Dnull%26amp%3Bunits%3D1%26amp%3BbaseUrl%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fgeoserver.myocean.eu%252Fgeoserver%252Fwms%253F%26amp%3BbaseLayers%3Dcls%253Anoaa_blue_marble_north_pole%26amp%3BoverlayUrl%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fgeoserver.myocean.eu%252Fgeoserver%252Fwms%253F%26amp%3BoverlayLayers%3Dcls%253Anoaa_blue_marble_north_pole_no_ocean&hash=b850b008be642686e3c3c2abf2a4396b)
not so much
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcmems-view.cls.fr%2F%2FViewService%2Fscreenshots%2FcreateScreenshot%3Fdataset%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fthredds.met.no%252Fthredds%252Fwms%252Ftopaz%252Fdataset-topaz4-arc-myoceanv2-be%26amp%3BnumColorBands%3D20%26amp%3BlogScale%3Dfalse%26amp%3Bbbox%3D-1410644.53125%252C-480468.75%252C5410644.53125%252C4480468.75%26amp%3Babovemaxcolor%3D0x000000%26amp%3Bbelowmincolor%3D0x000000%26amp%3Bnodatacolor%3Dnull%26amp%3Blayer%3Dhice%26amp%3Btime%3D2016-09-20T00%25253A00%25253A00.000Z%26amp%3Bpalette%3Drainbow%26amp%3Bstyle%3Dboxfill%26amp%3BscaleRange%3D0%252C4.421451%26amp%3BdisplayScaleRange%3D0%252C4.421451%26amp%3Bopacity%3D1%26amp%3Bbbox%3D-1410644.53125%252C-480468.75%252C5410644.53125%252C4480468.75%26amp%3BlayerTitle%3Dsea_ice_thickness%252CArctic%2BOcean%2BPhysics%2BAnalysis%2Band%2BForecast%252C%2B12.5km%2Bdaily%2Bmean%2B%28dataset-topaz4-arc-myoceanv2-be%29%26amp%3Bcrs%3DEPSG%253A32661%26amp%3BmapHeight%3D800%26amp%3BmapWidth%3D1024%26amp%3Bstyle%3Dboxfill%26amp%3BzUnits%3Dnull%26amp%3Bunits%3Dm%26amp%3BbaseUrl%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fgeoserver.myocean.eu%252Fgeoserver%252Fwms%253F%26amp%3BbaseLayers%3Dcls%253Anoaa_blue_marble_north_pole%26amp%3BoverlayUrl%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fgeoserver.myocean.eu%252Fgeoserver%252Fwms%253F%26amp%3BoverlayLayers%3Dcls%253Anoaa_blue_marble_north_pole_no_ocean&hash=6a80e3c76e70996b87f22d551076e28c)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on September 20, 2016, 01:13:24 AM
Here is 2015 from Sept 1st through Oct 31st, with the 18 Sept 2016 shown as green boundary. The pole hole flashes red on the 19th of Sept in the 2015 time series.

It's not so easy to get that 18 Sep 16 bounding mask right because of how the boundary operator fill works in gimp (dithers both boundaries slightly) so it's just attached.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 20, 2016, 01:58:56 AM
Those of you who are, like me, following the exploits of the yacht Northabout on her "Polar circumnavigation" might be interested to learn that the BBC used an interview with  David Hempleman-Adams, leader of the Polar Ocean Challenge expedition, to promulgate the views of the 5th Viscount Ridley, the world famous "Science writer"/"Coal Baron" and destroyer of Northern Rock:

"Radio Four in Arctic Sea Ice Bias Shock Today! (http://greatwhitecon.info/2016/09/radio-four-in-arctic-sea-ice-bias-shock-today/)"

Quote
At this juncture you might have supposed that one or more of those “hundreds of scientists” might have been mentioned, but you would have been wrong.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on September 20, 2016, 03:28:06 PM
I hope some remnants of big block can hold on for a couple more weeks. If they do, then I expect them to seed ice growth in the Beaufort. If that happens, then ice growth should speed up significantly since it will be growing from different fronts.

As we approach nearly ice free conditions, "big blocks" of ice could be pushed to strategic locations around the arctic to seed ice growth. This should give the freezing season a head start, maximizing ice production in the freezing season. The more ice produced in the freezing season, the more "negative heat" we can store for summer. 
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: 6roucho on September 20, 2016, 05:49:24 PM
I hope some remnants of big block can hold on for a couple more weeks. If they do, then I expect them to seed ice growth in the Beaufort. If that happens, then ice growth should speed up significantly since it will be growing from different fronts.

As we approach nearly ice free conditions, "big blocks" of ice could be pushed to strategic locations around the arctic to seed ice growth. This should give the freezing season a head start, maximizing ice production in the freezing season. The more ice produced in the freezing season, the more "negative heat" we can store for summer.
So, these are attractors at the edge of chaos to use the popular parlance.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: DoomInTheUK on September 20, 2016, 05:55:13 PM
I hope some remnants of big block can hold on for a couple more weeks. If they do, then I expect them to seed ice growth in the Beaufort. ......

Sadly not. I suspect it will remain, but the ice can only have an influence within a very small distance of itself, maybe as little as a few tens of feet. The ice will come, but the sea is not a supercooled fluid, no seeding to force nucleation here.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: solartim27 on September 20, 2016, 06:05:33 PM
Sorry, couldn't resist ( though I imagine everyone here has seen it ):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqVyRa1iuMc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqVyRa1iuMc)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on September 20, 2016, 06:05:33 PM
OTOH, the surface where Big Block melted off is possibly fresher and colder than other areas in the Beaufort, so refreeze could begin earlier and/or be faster at that area.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on September 20, 2016, 06:30:58 PM

 I suspect it will remain, but the ice can only have an influence within a very small distance of itself, maybe as little as a few tens of feet.

The floe is an area with lower temperature, lower albedo, no waves and lower salinity than the surrounding ocean.  If all other things are the same, the water very close to the floe will freeze before the water farther away. This makes the floe larger. A larger floe influences even more area. Rinse and repeat while the conditions are conductive for freezing.

This can already be seen in the beginning of the freezing season. The first part to freeze was the low concentration area close to the pole. In that area  ice grew in all directions. On the other hand, the wrangle arm solidified first (ice growth in all directions from the outside in), and is now growing from the inside out.

 I still have hopes for Big Block. Even if it was only half a kilometer of ice, it might show the behavior I describe. If it does, then we have a way to seed ice. Of course that can only be done if we indeed get a "nearly ice free" arctic before we get a literally ice free arctic. If we do, then the ice in the nearly ice free arctic can be moved around to maximize winter ice production. The more ice at the beginning of the melting season the better.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on September 20, 2016, 09:26:50 PM

 I suspect it will remain, but the ice can only have an influence within a very small distance of itself, maybe as little as a few tens of feet.

The floe is an area with lower temperature, lower albedo, no waves and lower salinity than the surrounding ocean.  If all other things are the same, the water very close to the floe will freeze before the water farther away. This makes the floe larger. A larger floe influences even more area. Rinse and repeat while the conditions are conductive for freezing.

This can already be seen in the beginning of the freezing season. The first part to freeze was the low concentration area close to the pole. In that area  ice grew in all directions. On the other hand, the wrangle arm solidified first (ice growth in all directions from the outside in), and is now growing from the inside out.

 I still have hopes for Big Block. Even if it was only half a kilometer of ice, it might show the behavior I describe. If it does, then we have a way to seed ice. Of course that can only be done if we indeed get a "nearly ice free" arctic before we get a literally ice free arctic. If we do, then the ice in the nearly ice free arctic can be moved around to maximize winter ice production. The more ice at the beginning of the melting season the better.

Where there is ice, there is less heat to be released and therefore there is greater probability of freezing around, especially if water around the remains is colder and fresher. I don't see it as seeding, simply as a sink of heat relative to the surrounding area because it is colder and solid to start with.
The problem is that the effect won't go very far or very fast unless it is a big extension, because the energy anomaly is finite. How big to be felt by the satellites before refreezing is generalized? No idea.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 20, 2016, 09:59:25 PM
Should anyone wish to join me in registering an official complaint with the BBC about coverage of Arctic sea ice on yesterday's Today programme a link to the requisite online form and my own humble effort can be seen at:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/radio-four-in-arctic-sea-ice-bias-shock-today/#Sep-20 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/radio-four-in-arctic-sea-ice-bias-shock-today/#Sep-20)

Quote
To summarise, either Matt Ridley has no idea what he’s talking about or he has an agenda. In either case reporting his views without adequate “balancing” comment badly lets down BBC Radio 4 listeners. How do you intend to remedy this?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on September 20, 2016, 10:43:09 PM
Sorry, couldn't resist ( though I imagine everyone here has seen it ):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqVyRa1iuMc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqVyRa1iuMc)
Thanks I've never seen it before. Fun and insightful stuff.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on September 20, 2016, 11:10:56 PM
Here is an approximate quantitative analysis of the Big Block remnant seen by Yuha on 250 m resolution Terra visible and infrared 3-6-7. It's a bit too small for AMSR2 on most recent days even though it seems to be just within range.

The area of the perimeter of the main block is the same as that of the bottom for 2 m thick ice. The perimeter may have far less of a meltwater skin than the bottom however as water passes by. Recall it is the relative motion of the floe with respect to a stationary open water coordinate system that matters (beyond the basics), ie what wind is doing to the floe in opposition to surface current.

Recall the Beaufort Gyre broke down completely in mid-summer after a couple of pauses and local gyre formation. The 140 day animation from May 1st to Sept 18th is a sight to see; the file size is a little problematic for the forum but something might work out there (for tomorrow).
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on September 20, 2016, 11:30:39 PM
Here is an approximate quantitative analysis of the Big Block remnant seen by Yuha on 250 m resolution Terra visible and infrared 3-6-7. It's a bit too small for AMSR2 on most recent days even though it seems to be just within range.

The area of the perimeter of the main block is the same as that of the bottom for 2 m thick ice. The perimeter may have far less of a meltwater skin than the bottom however as water passes by. Recall it is the relative motion of the floe with respect to a stationary open water coordinate system that matters (beyond the basics), ie what wind is doing to the floe in opposition to surface current.

Recall the Beaufort Gyre broke down completely in mid-summer after a couple of pauses and local gyre formation. The 140 day animation from May 1st to Sept 18th is a sight to see; the file size is a little problematic for the forum but something might work out there (for tomorrow).
Anxiously waiting for that :-)
I wonder if that is still a single floe.
The forecasts show no sight of calm weather for many days in Beaufort.
Nice south winds over the area right now
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: DoomInTheUK on September 21, 2016, 10:30:31 AM

The floe is an area with lower temperature, lower albedo, no waves and lower salinity than the surrounding ocean.  If all other things are the same, the water very close to the floe will freeze before the water farther away. This makes the floe larger. A larger floe influences even more area. Rinse and repeat while the conditions are conductive for freezing.

......

The lower salinity came from melting ice, so yes initially it will freeze up easier. This effect is limited though as freezing seawater increases salinity, and there is little melt water to replenish the fresher water - some bottom melt might still be occurring. The new ice is thin and has marginal effects on wave action.
This floe will cause very little 'extra' ice to form in the Beaufort. Cold air and darkness will do the rest.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on September 21, 2016, 01:14:12 PM
Here is the Beaufort from the 1st of May to the 18th of September (according to AMSR2 3.1k UHH). An earlier post showed the situation from January 1st to mid-July at five day intervals. It retains the original sea ice concentration color key which is critical to analysis. To show at 700 pixel width would quadruple file size to 22MB, not workable for the forum but an option after downloading (set mode to RGB and interpolation to 'none').

Note local eddies and lack of any effective Gyre from mid-season on. Import of ice from the CAA largely ceased as did export from Beaufort to Chukchi, contrary to textbook bromides.

In discussing the Beaufort Gyre, there's a potential for confusion between motion of floes and motion of surface water that has gotten worse in recent years. When floes are sparse, the effect of wind is much more pronounced and little is learned about surface currents.

Wind induced motion cannot really be predicted from reanalysis because it depends on floe freeboard lip, surface roughness and hydrodynamic drag.

Floe tracking is not essential to ocean current detection: "OSCAR global ocean surface mixed layer velocities are calculated from satellite-sensed sea surface height gradients, ocean vector winds, and sea surface temperature fields using geostrophy, Ekman, and thermal wind dynamics... modeling of the momentum transfer both within and across the boundaries of the turbulent mixed layer. http://www.esr.org/oscar_index.html (http://www.esr.org/oscar_index.html)"

This is available at nullschool along with wind power density but it would be difficult to partition floe motion between the two with oscar not specialized to the Arctic Ocean, only recalculated at five day intervals, and limited to ice free areas.

Our interest is more in transport of recalcitrant ice to regions more favorable to melt. From the animation frames, it would be feasible to estimate how much thick multi-year ice moved from the CAB to melt in the Beaufort, as part of a larger project that considered export to the CAA, Nares, Fram and Barents front. Matching seasonal time series (animations) of these regions can be carved out of the same 141 MB master file (tomorrow).

These latter process export melt thermodynamics along with the ice. This year seemed quite odd, but perhaps it was just weather rather than the new normal.

Below the animation, there's an idealized average view of annual ice drift vectors from Woods Hole. There is also a mooring (to the sea floor) in the Beaufort that does not move with the ice.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: FishOutofWater on September 21, 2016, 07:22:37 PM
The loop of ice movement shows a cyclonic flow of ice towards Barrow canyon that the buoy map does not pick up. That map also isn't showing much flow through the CAA.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on September 21, 2016, 11:49:04 PM
Nice!! Thank you A-Team.
Trying to understand these jet-like currents and the mostly clockwise rotating eddies (except near Barrow where the two main jets collide, and as FOOW points out; the rotation is anticlockwise.
Curiously the HYCOM simulations showed eddies mostly with the wrong cyclonic spin, as seen  back in June-July.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1493.msg82109.html#msg82109 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1493.msg82109.html#msg82109)
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1493.msg84743.html#msg84743 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1493.msg84743.html#msg84743)

Going thru this paper, very difficult to read, but deals with much of these eddies we have seen in the Beaufort sea this summer:
https://goo.gl/a7J5Na (https://goo.gl/a7J5Na)

Note how one of the companions of BB gets caught in the jet around mid July, and is drifted away well into the Chukchi sea.
There are batches of export of ice from CAB to Beaufort IMHO, due to the storms dispersing the ice, not as strong as that from the initial Gyre in April, but they are there and the ice melts quickly.
And the final vacuum of ice reaching the Wrangel arm, may be caused by that jet from Beaufort to Chukchi rather than, or not only by, Chukchi current or simple direct albedo amplification.
The melting power was amazing, this was really good MYI. Fascinating stuff.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on September 22, 2016, 03:19:58 PM
Compaction remains almost as low as early this month, very diffuse edges yet.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.0.html
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 23, 2016, 12:44:47 PM
Perhaps I'll have to cross post this elsewhere! It's far more obvious on AMSR2, but as we know AMSR2 doesn't report every last little bit of sea ice.

According to the Canadian Ice Service it is (or was on the 19th at least) possible to circumnavigate Banks Island in a small yacht:
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on September 23, 2016, 04:31:45 PM
Here is AMSR2 for the CAA for 01-22 Sept 2016, along with areas for estimating input of ice from the Central Arctic Basin. The necessary masks are provided; the bar at top is the original sea ice concentration palette, as are map colors. The bottom animation shows the set-up for the flux gate calculation, with residual open water (darkest blue) removed.

The channel area shown in the animation is 851,000 km2. The defining boundaries of 'Arctic Ocean' are indicated by the dark blue and taken at 14.1 mkm2; however the origin, accuracy, datum, and boundaries for that number is unclear.

I used a (complicated) new script for merging text and imagery to put in the dates; that will be described in a bit over in the developer forum.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on September 23, 2016, 06:13:07 PM
Nares and Fram export over the same date range, 01-22 Sep 2016, at native AMSR2 'large' scale with zero and 100% sea ice concentration colors replaced for clarity, along with three days of Modis 3-6-7 of 21-23 Sept 2016 whose first two dates can be compared with the last two AMSR2.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on September 23, 2016, 06:57:23 PM
Using the 5 day NSIDC extent, the cumulative extent change for September has just gone positive. This is the earliest date that this has occurred since 1996. This is all the more impressive given that up to the 9th, we had the 4th largest cumulative extent loss on record.
An overall increase in extent occurs in about 2 thirds of all previous Septembers, but in just 7 of the last 15.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 23, 2016, 11:11:30 PM
MODIS confirms there's lots of (what looks like) open water in McClure Strait:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201617-images/#CAA (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201617-images/#CAA)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on September 24, 2016, 08:04:42 AM
MODIS confirms there's lots of (what looks like) open water in McClure Strait:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201617-images/#CAA (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201617-images/#CAA)
What strikes me about that image is how much it shows heat in the water disintegrating ice at the margins.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 24, 2016, 10:12:38 AM
The other side of Kap Morris Jesup is looking a bit crumbly too:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201617-images/#CAB (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201617-images/#CAB)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Lord M Vader on September 24, 2016, 11:48:12 AM
From NSIDC data, it seems that this is the fastest freezing that have been seen since 1996. One problem to this very quick refreezing is how much snow that have been falling onto the ice? Most of the snow during the Arctic winter is, as we know, falling during the fall months. For example, Kotelny Island which belongs to the New Siberian Islands, gets an average of 46 mm of precipitation during September to November. Eureka in Canada gets about 21 mm during the fall.

A thick snow cover can be good and bad for the next melting season. A thick snow cover isolates well and the ice growth is lower. OTOH, a thick snow cover is good if low pressure dominated weather starts the melting season of 2017.

The point is: how good, or bad, is it to have a very quick refreezing of the "main" Arctic basin? I.e the areas with sea ice that are not melting away every single year.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on September 24, 2016, 12:37:10 PM
  That's a very good question on snow cover. If it insulates the ice this early then surely the dominant effect would be to minimise thickening during the freeze season? That would be bad for the 2017 melt season.

  The storms keep on rolling in. As shown below, there are currently 4 storm centres in the Arctic Basin, with the strongest having a low pressure of ~983 hPa. Yet another storm with a similar minimum pressure is predicted to arrive in around 4 days time.


  Two lines of questions for those who have watched the Arctic weather more closely than I during past freeze seasons:

1) is it normal to have as many storms, one after the other, during the beginning of the freeze season? If not, how unprecedented is the current situation; and

2) what are the likely effects and the likely consequences for the rest of the freeze season and the 2017 melt season? For example. would they be expected to dump a lot of snow on the ice? How significantly would they be mixing up the halocline and adding salt to the surface? Are they at least partly responsible for the quick initial freeze-over this year?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on September 24, 2016, 04:01:45 PM
Weird how so many people posting away on the ASI Blog on the 2016 melt season never so much as glance at the 2016 melt season forum. It seems some are able to intuit the state of the ice w/o reference to observational data.

Yet view counts reach ~5000 over time so perhaps they do look but are baffled by data presentation; I've been assuming the animations are self-explanatory (just time lapse photography) but apparently not. However a number of people here definitely get it.

From some years as professor of mathematical physics, I am ok with the fact that the public has no clue what a metric is, never mind gradient and divergence (2nd term calculus). Still, it does not seem like rocket science to realize that from mickey mouse reductive integrals like extent, it is impossible to recover the map of the ice, even approximately -- a great many different distributions have the same outcome. Better to stick with the ice which is far too complex a substance for this approach.

Below are a couple more ways of looking at the transition season. Observe vigorous melt continues through September 23rd below the Wrangel arm. Big Block has also persisted to the 23rd though it is not picked up every day by AMSR2. There must have been hellacious winds to have blown so much ice eastward in the CAA channels and lower CAB, the effect extends over thousands of km.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 24, 2016, 08:18:49 PM
What strikes me about that image is how much it shows heat in the water disintegrating ice at the margins.

A very clear image of Banks Island arrived overnight:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201617-images/#CAA (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201617-images/#CAA)

Spot the difference from yesterday:
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Cate on September 25, 2016, 12:18:53 AM
Hmm, let's see. Banks Island was white on Sept 12 under clear skies---looked snow-covered to me. The snow was there until Sept 20 and then started to disappear. Sept 23 shows lots of bare ground again, with snow only on what I assume is higher ground. Open water all around. Is this all normal, what you would expect for this time of year?   
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on September 25, 2016, 03:16:50 AM
Very informative plots, thanks A-Team! The re-freeze is impressive.

... There must have been hellacious winds to have blown so much ice eastward in the CAA channels and lower CAB, the effect extends over thousands of km.
  It's much too fast for wind-blown ice, which will typically travel at 5-10% of the wind speed.

  Instead, the water near to the ice is seen to be more susceptible to freeze-over. Speculating on some potential reasons:
  - fresher water, as is where ice has recently melted (& maybe with some residual ice still there)?
  - less windy near the ice?
  - colder water &/or air near the ice?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: budmantis on September 25, 2016, 08:14:00 AM
Hmm, let's see. Banks Island was white on Sept 12 under clear skies---looked snow-covered to me. The snow was there until Sept 20 and then started to disappear. Sept 23 shows lots of bare ground again, with snow only on what I assume is higher ground. Open water all around. Is this all normal, what you would expect for this time of year?

I'm surprised to see that Banks Island is circumnavigable this late in September. From memory, it seems there's less ice in the NW Passage right now than usual, but I could be wrong.

For the last five years, I've observed the remains, if any, of ice in the vicinity of Baffin Island. Usually there are some remnants of ice that didn't totally melt over the summer. For instance, last year in Coronation Gulf, there was a remnant of ice in the upper portion of the Gulf that remained. This is the first year that I can remember, that all water surrounding Baffin Island is free of ice.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Phil. on September 25, 2016, 12:38:48 PM
Very informative plots, thanks A-Team! The re-freeze is impressive.

... There must have been hellacious winds to have blown so much ice eastward in the CAA channels and lower CAB, the effect extends over thousands of km.
  It's much too fast for wind-blown ice, which will typically travel at 5-10% of the wind speed.

  Instead, the water near to the ice is seen to be more susceptible to freeze-over. Speculating on some potential reasons:
  - fresher water, as is where ice has recently melted (& maybe with some residual ice still there)?
  - less windy near the ice?
  - colder water &/or air near the ice?

From the travels of O buoy 14 we know that it has been transported from the open ocean into the strait over the last month.  Started off in open water and then met up with the ice and was swept into the strait with it.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on September 25, 2016, 12:53:06 PM
Very informative plots, thanks A-Team! The re-freeze is impressive.

... There must have been hellacious winds to have blown so much ice eastward in the CAA channels and lower CAB, the effect extends over thousands of km.
  It's much too fast for wind-blown ice, which will typically travel at 5-10% of the wind speed.

  Instead, the water near to the ice is seen to be more susceptible to freeze-over. Speculating on some potential reasons:
  - fresher water, as is where ice has recently melted (& maybe with some residual ice still there)?
  - less windy near the ice?
  - colder water &/or air near the ice?

From the travels of O buoy 14 we know that it has been transported from the open ocean into the strait over the last month.  Started off in open water and then met up with the ice and was swept into the strait with it.
Yep, thanks for this and sorry, A-Team, I may have been posting at cross-purposes to you. When you talked about blowing ice "eastward" and for thousands of km I thought you were referring to the re-freeze heading in the direction of Siberia. On re-reading, it appears you were instead talking about eastward within the CAA channels.

 Yes, it's true the winds this melt season have been extraordinary - indeed unprecedented in the record if I'm not mistaken.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jonthed on September 25, 2016, 08:32:23 PM
With regards to the quick refreeze, please tell me if I'm right in thinking that the lower the minimum, the more likely we'll see a faster initial rate of refreeze? Simply because there's more open water available for refreeze, being exposed to the coldest temperatures found closer to the pole? And that's if refreeze is being measured purely by daily growth, rather than absolute ice area. If we're talking about how many days after minimum a given year reaches a certain sea ice area, then the low minimum shouldn't help them be faster to the line in that race surely?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on September 25, 2016, 09:39:50 PM
With regards to the quick refreeze, please tell me if I'm right in thinking that the lower the minimum, the more likely we'll see a faster initial rate of refreeze? Simply because there's more open water available for refreeze, being exposed to the coldest temperatures found closer to the pole? And that's if refreeze is being measured purely by daily growth, rather than absolute ice area. If we're talking about how many days after minimum a given year reaches a certain sea ice area, then the low minimum shouldn't help them be faster to the line in that race surely?
Your thinking is based on good premises.  I'd only differ with your last conclusion.  More initial open water at this juncture will permit more rapid increases in extent and area, but do not necessarily mean specific area and extent milestones will be hit by a specific date.  In short, derivative measures like  rate of refreeze are more likely to be increased, but not necessarily raw scalar measures like extent and area.

I have mixed feelings about what we are seeing.  While on the one hand it is reassuring to see coverage recovering, on the other, I'm aware that this dramatically changes thermal transfer, reducing greatly the rate at which heat can escape from the ocean out of the atmosphere.

Trying to decide which I'd prefer - faster refreeze or longer open water - is a lesser of evils one, where even which one is less evil is unclear.  Later refreeze means less time for substantial ice to thicken.  Earlier refreeze means more of this season's heat trapped at high latitudes is carried over to next season to accelerate the start of melt.

Recent changes in atmospheric flow make things even worse.  With the slowing and deepening of Rossby waves as we've seen over the last few years, more heat and moisture is being pulled into the Arctic at mid-winter, and cold air displaced south.  Both the mass transfer of heat and the additional moisture in the atmosphere (coincidentally amplifying retention of heat as a very effective GHG...) will seriously impede ice growth.

I'm concerned also at the lack of ice in peripheral seas as well.  This may be another amplification; that is, that because of reduced albedo, places like the Beaufort, Chukchi, Barents and Kara, and to a lesser degree the Laptev, ESS and Greenland Sea - have spend more time taking up insolation.  At this time of year, even as far north as 75 degrees of latitude will get as much as 1.3 megajoules/3.6KWH a day of exposure.  Normally most of that would get bounced back out of the atmosphere, but now a significant fraction of it will be getting picked up by water.  That's far from enough to prevent the switch over to refreeze, but very much changes the heat exchange dynamic for this time of the year.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: be cause on September 25, 2016, 10:56:23 PM
EOSDISWorldview provides a wonderful view of the Fram-ward movement of the ice north of Greenland over the last 2 weeks . Wish I had the skills to share . Most of the ice has moved 100km toward oblivion and with the forecast winds supporting accellerating export the melting season continues even as area etc grow . bc .
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tealight on September 26, 2016, 12:06:00 AM
At this time of year, even as far north as 75 degrees of latitude will get as much as 1.3 megajoules/3.6KWH a day of exposure.

Where the hell did you get that figure from? If it where true the ocean would probably warm up and not freeze.
At this time of the year open ocean can only absorb around 0.75 kWh/m2
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on September 26, 2016, 06:16:54 AM
At this time of year, even as far north as 75 degrees of latitude will get as much as 1.3 megajoules/3.6KWH a day of exposure.

Where the hell did you get that figure from? If it where true the ocean would probably warm up and not freeze.
At this time of the year open ocean can only absorb around 0.75 kWh/m2

that is a little under 3 megajoules per m^2
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 26, 2016, 09:03:52 AM
The conversation reminded me of this elucidatory article by Mark Brandon:

http://mallemaroking.org/arctic-ocean-sensible-heat-loss/ (http://mallemaroking.org/arctic-ocean-sensible-heat-loss/)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on September 26, 2016, 09:14:24 AM
At this time of year, even as far north as 75 degrees of latitude will get as much as 1.3 megajoules/3.6KWH a day of exposure.

Where the hell did you get that figure from? If it where true the ocean would probably warm up and not freeze.
At this time of the year open ocean can only absorb around 0.75 kWh/m2
that's highly dependent on latitude. Mine is arough calc of available daily insolation at solstice at 75N.  And I very much disagree that it's enough to keep warming up the water.  It's not really quite enough to balance loss out of the top of the atmosphere. It's only about 1/3rd of what's available at peak there and is rapidly decaying. I'll happily accept others correcting my rough math, but I don't think I'm far off.

Let me add, my point isn't so much about more energy entering. Rather about less energy leaving.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tealight on September 26, 2016, 12:35:08 PM
At this time of year, even as far north as 75 degrees of latitude will get as much as 1.3 megajoules/3.6KWH a day of exposure.

Where the hell did you get that figure from? If it where true the ocean would probably warm up and not freeze.
At this time of the year open ocean can only absorb around 0.75 kWh/m2

that is a little under 3 megajoules per m^2
that's highly dependent on latitude. Mine is arough calc of available daily insolation at solstice at 75N.  And I very much disagree that it's enough to keep warming up the water.  It's not really quite enough to balance loss out of the top of the atmosphere. It's only about 1/3rd of what's available at peak there and is rapidly decaying. I'll happily accept others correcting my rough math, but I don't think I'm far off.

Let me add, my point isn't so much about more energy entering. Rather about less energy leaving.

OK I think the misunderstanding was caused by your unit conversion. 1.3 megajoules is 0.36kWh and not 3.6kWh. I only paid attention to 3.6kWh and didn't check your conversion.

On second note the difference between radiation on top of the atmosphere and on the surface in the arctic is huge at this time of the year and surface albedo isn't very relevant. Water also has a high albedo at current angles of incidence.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 26, 2016, 02:23:46 PM
An interesting new paper:

Atmospheric conditions during the Arctic Clouds in Summer Experiment (ACSE): Contrasting open-water and sea-ice surfaces during melt and freeze-up seasons. (http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0211.1)

Quote
The Arctic Clouds in Summer Experiment (ACSE) was conducted during summer and early autumn 2014, providing a detailed view of the seasonal transition from ice melt into freeze-up. Measurements were taken over both ice-free and ice-covered surfaces, near the ice edge, offering insight to the role of the surface state in shaping the atmospheric conditions. The initiation of the autumn freeze-up was related to a change in air mass, rather than to changes in solar radiation alone; the lower atmosphere cooled abruptly leading to a surface heat loss. During melt season, strong surface inversions persisted over the ice, while elevated inversions were more frequent over open water. These differences disappeared during autumn freeze-up, when elevated inversions persisted over both ice-free and ice-covered conditions. These results are in contrast to previous studies that found a well-mixed boundary layer persisting in summer and an increased frequency of surface-based inversions in autumn, suggesting that our knowledge derived from measurements taken within the pan-Arctic area and on the central ice-pack does not necessarily apply closer to the ice-edge.

What do you suppose happens if a large percentage of the "pan-Arctic area" resembles the MIZ?

A helpful hint - Also check ResearchGate.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on September 26, 2016, 03:45:18 PM
With regards to the quick refreeze, please tell me if I'm right in thinking that the lower the minimum, the more likely we'll see a faster initial rate of refreeze? Simply because there's more open water available for refreeze, being exposed to the coldest temperatures found closer to the pole? And that's if refreeze is being measured purely by daily growth, rather than absolute ice area. If we're talking about how many days after minimum a given year reaches a certain sea ice area, then the low minimum shouldn't help them be faster to the line in that race surely?

I have mixed feelings about what we are seeing.
...
 Earlier refreeze means more of this season's heat trapped at high latitudes is carried over to next season to accelerate the start of melt.
...
Is there anything written out there about this? I just can't find it.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: NeilT on September 27, 2016, 11:58:11 AM

I have mixed feelings about what we are seeing.  While on the one hand it is reassuring to see coverage recovering, on the other, I'm aware that this dramatically changes thermal transfer, reducing greatly the rate at which heat can escape from the ocean out of the atmosphere.

True but, as ever, the heat is a double edged sword in the Arctic. Simply getting the heat impacts the next season.

If it remains it will increase surface melt, but, again, it could also be radiated out through the thinner ice if it has no snow cover.

However if it evaporates out during the autumn in a late freeze event, it will create more moisture in the cooling atmosphere to drive local snow cover which will insulate the ice from more cooling.  Also, should those clouds remain during the deep winter, it will insulate the Arctic from the worst effects of the winter.

All of which leads to more melt in the following season.

The main message being the more heat absorbed in each melting season, the worse it will be for the following melt season, regardless of how it freezes up.

This winter season we dip deeper into the Solar Minimum and we switch to La Nina.  All of which will have an impact over and above the events during the re-freeze.

My bet is more, but weaker, ice than last year, followed by a 2007/2012 event next year.  Followed by a 2008/9 follow up in the freezing and melting seasons beyond.

But that's just a guess.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on September 27, 2016, 10:10:17 PM
Reading around, I find very instructive Chris Reynolds takes on the problem of most of the heat excess being vented out during refreezing, see for instanve, http://dosbat.blogspot.com.es/2011/07/arctic-sea-ice-free-this-decade.html?m=1 (http://dosbat.blogspot.com.es/2011/07/arctic-sea-ice-free-this-decade.html?m=1)
with special reference to Tietsche et al 2011 simulations
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010GL045698/full (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010GL045698/full)
in a number of posts.
Seems to me what we are witnessing is a fast refreeze for three reasons: cold weather from north; lots of marginal zones with ice and colder water that are first to refreeze; and, a litlle of initial fast propagation due to wrinkled ice edge, which increases the initial interface lenght of ice->water prone to quicker refreezing. Add plenty of divergent drift within the pack.
My first assumption is that this fast refreeze does not lock up any trapped heat. It just means areas where heat in mixed layer was lower to start with will refreeze sooner. Nothing to trap beneath it. Then, warmer areas will take longer to refreeze, and then will eventually do when they reach freezing temperatures. Nothing special thermodynamically.
Can some heat be trapped for next season? Maybe. For instance a later pulse of warmer Bering inflow water would lose more heat if it remains in open water than if it forms a pool beneath already frozen area. Likewise there is this complicated mechanism of a layer of fresher ice sealing saltier water beneath. Many other complicated things out there.
But overall I will assume them not significant for next season unless I am pointed to a good scientific resource indicating otherwise.
No seeding of refreezing with sort of a catalystic process. Which is the agent that catalizes the freezing may I ask?
Early snow cover may play a factor on limiting heat losses, but simple 1D heat equation shows that 10 or 20 cm of snow layer has a limited temporal effect (a week) on isolating ice from outside plummeting temperatures. 50 cm is another story, but you don't get that until Spring, and by then it becomes really ice-protective.
I can be wrong that nobody here pointed to scientific work, indicating massive heat can be trapped to really affect next season because of fast refreeze (except, as I said, maybe to reduce heat loss from incoming ocean currents; but for that, peripheral seas must be sealed with ice and that may still take quite some time).
What I find very worrying for next season is the low volume, low MYI survived, and the shape of the pack cannot be worse, if massive Fram export during Winter and early melting in Pacific side happen next year.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on September 27, 2016, 11:18:30 PM
I'm not sure what this means apart from maybe ongoing loss of the freshest fraction of water
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcmems-view.cls.fr%2F%2FViewService%2Fscreenshots%2FcreateScreenshot%3Fdataset%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fthredds.met.no%252Fthredds%252Fwms%252Ftopaz%252Fdataset-topaz4-arc-myoceanv2-be%26amp%3BnumColorBands%3D20%26amp%3BlogScale%3Dfalse%26amp%3Bbbox%3D14074.7070313%252C992309.5703126%252C3424719.2382813%252C3472778.3203126%26amp%3Babovemaxcolor%3D0x000000%26amp%3Bbelowmincolor%3D0x000000%26amp%3Bnodatacolor%3Dnull%26amp%3Blayer%3Dhice%26amp%3Btime%3D2016-09-01T00%25253A00%25253A00.000Z%26amp%3Bpalette%3Drainbow%26amp%3Bstyle%3Dboxfill%26amp%3BscaleRange%3D0%252C5%26amp%3BdisplayScaleRange%3D0%252C5%26amp%3Bopacity%3D1%26amp%3Bbbox%3D14074.707031%252C992309.570313%252C3424719.238281%252C3472778.320313%26amp%3BlayerTitle%3Dsea_ice_thickness%252CArctic%2BOcean%2BPhysics%2BAnalysis%2Band%2BForecast%252C%2B12.5km%2Bdaily%2Bmean%2B%28dataset-topaz4-arc-myoceanv2-be%29%26amp%3Bcrs%3DEPSG%253A32661%26amp%3BmapHeight%3D800%26amp%3BmapWidth%3D1024%26amp%3Bstyle%3Dboxfill%26amp%3BzUnits%3Dnull%26amp%3Bunits%3Dm%26amp%3BbaseUrl%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fgeoserver.myocean.eu%252Fgeoserver%252Fwms%253F%26amp%3BbaseLayers%3Dcls%253Anoaa_blue_marble_north_pole%26amp%3BoverlayUrl%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fgeoserver.myocean.eu%252Fgeoserver%252Fwms%253F%26amp%3BoverlayLayers%3Dcls%253Anoaa_blue_marble_north_pole_no_ocean&hash=683261bd010de79507e23c62887fc9c9)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcmems-view.cls.fr%2F%2FViewService%2Fscreenshots%2FcreateScreenshot%3Fdataset%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fthredds.met.no%252Fthredds%252Fwms%252Ftopaz%252Fdataset-topaz4-arc-myoceanv2-be%26amp%3BnumColorBands%3D20%26amp%3BlogScale%3Dfalse%26amp%3Bbbox%3D14074.7070313%252C992309.5703126%252C3424719.2382813%252C3472778.3203126%26amp%3Babovemaxcolor%3D0x000000%26amp%3Bbelowmincolor%3D0x000000%26amp%3Bnodatacolor%3Dnull%26amp%3Blayer%3Dhice%26amp%3Btime%3D2016-09-14T00%25253A00%25253A00.000Z%26amp%3Bpalette%3Drainbow%26amp%3Bstyle%3Dboxfill%26amp%3BscaleRange%3D0%252C5%26amp%3BdisplayScaleRange%3D0%252C5%26amp%3Bopacity%3D1%26amp%3Bbbox%3D14074.707031%252C992309.570313%252C3424719.238281%252C3472778.320313%26amp%3BlayerTitle%3Dsea_ice_thickness%252CArctic%2BOcean%2BPhysics%2BAnalysis%2Band%2BForecast%252C%2B12.5km%2Bdaily%2Bmean%2B%28dataset-topaz4-arc-myoceanv2-be%29%26amp%3Bcrs%3DEPSG%253A32661%26amp%3BmapHeight%3D800%26amp%3BmapWidth%3D1024%26amp%3Bstyle%3Dboxfill%26amp%3BzUnits%3Dnull%26amp%3Bunits%3Dm%26amp%3BbaseUrl%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fgeoserver.myocean.eu%252Fgeoserver%252Fwms%253F%26amp%3BbaseLayers%3Dcls%253Anoaa_blue_marble_north_pole%26amp%3BoverlayUrl%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fgeoserver.myocean.eu%252Fgeoserver%252Fwms%253F%26amp%3BoverlayLayers%3Dcls%253Anoaa_blue_marble_north_pole_no_ocean&hash=4c24d10b9b4fb058e79e61d3f2930758)
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Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 28, 2016, 03:01:35 AM
I believe the biggest story of this melt season is the highly fractured and dispersed nature of the remaining ice. This fast freeze will lock these relatively small MYI flows into a highly dispersed pattern, waiting for the next melt season.

Are we having fun yet?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on September 28, 2016, 05:31:48 AM
Just read in the IJIS thread that we broke the 5M km2 plane today. It definitely looks like the momentum is for the freezing side now, and not slowing down anytime soon.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on September 28, 2016, 01:44:51 PM
Trying to better understand the heat exchange of the arctic ocean with the atmosphere I stumbled upon the graph attached. It clearly shows that the lower levels of the oceans are cooling. The strongest cooling pulses seem to be correlated with strong melting seasons.   I imagine this has to do with cold stored in thick ice that melts in the surface lowering the temperature underneath.

I would love to see a graph like this but for the arctic ocean. A colder ocean should make for a faster refreeze, at least while there is ice left on the arctic.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 28, 2016, 02:00:35 PM
Sentinel 1A imagery of the Lincoln Sea from September 26th:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201617-images/#CAB (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201617-images/#CAB)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on September 28, 2016, 03:32:55 PM
Forecast for Oct 8 ECMWF.
Won't probably realize but, 934 hPa ? ? ?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Lord M Vader on September 28, 2016, 05:43:42 PM
Seaicesailor: if so, it is the remnants of the tropical cyclone Chaba. And TC interaction with the midlatitudes is always a tough nut.

The quick refreezing we have seen so far make me wondering how much impact the two intensive cyclones back in August had on the SSTs and the salinity. Any ideas?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 28, 2016, 06:30:05 PM
The latest cyclone has just crossed the coast into the East Siberian Sea with a MSLP of 976 hPa
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on September 29, 2016, 07:20:41 AM
The Wrangel arm's back and it's been hittin' the gym.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Thomas Barlow on September 30, 2016, 02:15:14 AM
Beaufort Sea Sept. 14 and 29.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Andreas Muenchow on September 30, 2016, 06:12:16 AM
The latest cyclone has just crossed the coast into the East Siberian Sea with a MSLP of 976 hPa

Where may I find this surface map and, I suspect, its daily updates? I am very nervous to be heading into that Wrangel Arm of sea ice leaving Nome via Sikuliaq on Oct.-15 to return a month later. I suspect we may take a beating at that "bad" time of the year.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on September 30, 2016, 06:24:16 AM
latent heat

massive mid-latitude blocking patterns are once again forcing moisture and heat energy into the arctic cell.  This appears to be partially due to an increase of atmospheric water vapor post the latest El Nino?  We shall see if this continues.  I hate to imagine what the El Gygytgyn +8C from today at 400 ppm CO2 looks like, but it is starting to feel like an Eocene arctic future.

http://weather.utah.edu/index.php?runcode=2016092918&t=gfs004&r=NH&d=DT (http://weather.utah.edu/index.php?runcode=2016092918&t=gfs004&r=NH&d=DT)



Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: werther on September 30, 2016, 09:14:57 AM
When one with great interest in the geophysics of our planet is on this for over ten years, one starts to get some sense for the short term and chaotical variance of all processes. 
What is going on since 7 September has a direct relation to the structure-loss of the complete Arctic sea ice pack. It is mobile and dispersed. The open ocean waters in between, having a thin, sweeter top layer, is soon ready to support formation of nilas and guard fresh fallen snow against dissolving. The satellite sensors pick this up as extent growth. They did so in earlier years too, nothing new here except for the intensively broken up structure of the pack nowadays.
This  extent growth doesn’t tell us much about the real state of the ice nor about  the nature of the coming winter season.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: binntho on September 30, 2016, 12:26:23 PM
Werther, I agree!
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 30, 2016, 06:12:02 PM
SMOS is up and running again, and reporting some "interesting" results:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#SMOS (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#SMOS)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 30, 2016, 06:18:06 PM
Where may I find this surface map and, I suspect, its daily updates?

Sorry Andreas. I "almost always" include a link, but not on this occasion. Actually there are 6 hourly updates from Environment Canada:

http://weather.gc.ca/analysis/index_e.html (http://weather.gc.ca/analysis/index_e.html)

Other people's mileage may vary, but for forecasts I head for MeteoCiel first since you can compare all sorts of sources:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0&carte=1 (http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0&carte=1)

Re the Sikuliaq, see also: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1385.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1385.0.html)

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on October 01, 2016, 11:12:08 PM
Here are some updates through the end of the month and some comparisons to the same period for the four earlier years available, of which 2012 is most remarkable.

Both melt and refreezing are continuing as of Sept 30th, depending on the region. Various 'boundary operators' are used below to highlight active areas, that is, the changing sea ice found sandwiched open water (darkest blue on AMSR2 3.1k UHH) and areas of solid ice (95-100% concentration).

It is only on a correctly constructed product, all too rare, that this is possible to do at all. (Not saying here this sea ice concentration product is fabulously accurate, just that the map would display them properly if they were.) In math 101 terms, palette assignment on the netCDF does not commute with projection to map coordinates, so the product ends up hopelessly dithered (like the mind of the matlab client).

The two main things to watch in coming months are timely refreeze (or not) of the Beaufort and  Polar Front from Svalbard to Severnaya Zemlya. The latter retreat -- and its causes -- have been the subject of numerous 2015-16 papers.

Part of the problem is that Atlantic Water is now 4ºC warmer than water just under the ice, the most extreme in two millennia. The AW is now completing its circuit with far less heat than it brought in, with far more loss than can be explained by double diffusion. So some turbulent processes are at work. This AW water is fully capable of melting all the ice regardless of what is going on with surface weather.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 02, 2016, 12:00:10 AM
A-Team thank you for these beautiful and instructive comparisons.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on October 02, 2016, 02:38:46 AM
Agree, thanks A-Team. Also very interesting about the Atlantic water.

As background, there is an introduction on that topic on the Wikipedia page, which is very well done:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_Ocean (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_Ocean)

A screen shot of the start of that section is appended:
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 02, 2016, 02:55:57 AM
Who bumped the thermostat?

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on October 02, 2016, 11:00:35 AM
For a little more insight into Atlantic water circulation http://marine.copernicus.eu/services-portfolio/access-to-products/ (http://marine.copernicus.eu/services-portfolio/access-to-products/) from the first product, specifically
http://cmems-view.cls.fr/ViewService/?permalinking=true&bgmap=Blue%20Marble%20North%20Polar&dataset=http://nrtcmems.mercator-ocean.fr/thredds/wms/global-analysis-forecast-phys-001-002&numColorBands=20&logScale=false&bbox=-1150195.3125,139648.4375,5671093.75,5100585.9375&abovemaxcolor=0x000000&belowmincolor=0x000000&nodatacolor=null&layer=u&time=2016-10-01T12%253A00%253A00.000Z&palette=rainbow&style=boxfill&scaleRange=-0.4193243,1.081576&displayScaleRange=-0.4193243,1.081576&opacity=1&record_id=ceec7b06-49e3-4c13-bfdb-1cc8d4dc423d&dataset_id=daily%20mean%20fields%20from%20Global%20Ocean%20Physics%20Analysis%20and%20Forecast%20updated%20Daily (http://cmems-view.cls.fr/ViewService/?permalinking=true&bgmap=Blue%20Marble%20North%20Polar&dataset=http://nrtcmems.mercator-ocean.fr/thredds/wms/global-analysis-forecast-phys-001-002&numColorBands=20&logScale=false&bbox=-1150195.3125,139648.4375,5671093.75,5100585.9375&abovemaxcolor=0x000000&belowmincolor=0x000000&nodatacolor=null&layer=u&time=2016-10-01T12%253A00%253A00.000Z&palette=rainbow&style=boxfill&scaleRange=-0.4193243,1.081576&displayScaleRange=-0.4193243,1.081576&opacity=1&record_id=ceec7b06-49e3-4c13-bfdb-1cc8d4dc423d&dataset_id=daily%20mean%20fields%20from%20Global%20Ocean%20Physics%20Analysis%20and%20Forecast%20updated%20Daily)
unfortunately the animation [bottom left] doesn't work on the permalink, it's worth switching to the northwards sea movement too, and switching datasets to the 2H for some insight on tidal flows.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 02, 2016, 12:10:02 PM
The two main things to watch in coming months are timely refreeze (or not) of the Beaufort

Prompts this cross post (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,416.msg90941.html#msg90941):

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fforum.arctic-sea-ice.net%2Findex.php%3Faction%3Ddlattach%3Btopic%3D416.0%3Battach%3D36826%3Bimage&hash=72627771e98618e508cb954829a76199)

The refreeze off Banks Island. Plus this:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/is-the-northwest-passage-freezing-or-melting/ (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/is-the-northwest-passage-freezing-or-melting/)

If Lars is watching, is there any chance of Hamburg processing a bit more of 2012?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 02, 2016, 12:15:00 PM
Also very interesting about the Atlantic water.

See also the new paper from Jim Thomson:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1222.msg90939.html#msg90939 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1222.msg90939.html#msg90939)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 02, 2016, 04:16:52 PM
Ok, I know the water temps are of more concern regarding freezing than the air. And it's still mild in the Arctic compared to other places, but doesn't this raise some concern? Maybe it's become the new normal.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 02, 2016, 10:55:51 PM
Who bumped the thermostat?
Thermostat didn't change - its the expected temperatures which dropped.

The problem being shown here, is the heat is hanging around, rather than dissipating.  It may be from heat coming out of open water, it may be a side effect of the huge inputs of moisture being pulled into the Arctic with Cyclones.  It may be something else, or a combination.

But, the heat is still there, and that may present a problem.  It won't prevent refreeze, but it will prevent thickening.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: NeilT on October 02, 2016, 11:07:25 PM
Indeed and perhaps it's worth checking the Mpemba effect (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mpemba_effect), where one of the answers was in the +4c circulation change.

Personally I think it's going to be a most interesting winter...
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on October 02, 2016, 11:35:18 PM
Here is the last 365 days of export at 5x the resolution provided at hycom. There are pauses on 24 Mar 2016 (NSIDC maximal winter extent) and on 10 Sep 2016 (NSIDC summer minimum). Hopefully the file is not too large to load. It is. A cropped down version seems to work.

The original hycom version is also attached, rotated 45º to standard orientation and cropped to retain dates. Files with 365 layers get very large in a hurry in RGB. It is almost better just to view the navy site in a web browser and use hard-coded monitor enlargement, the issue being hycom nowcast links aren't stable.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 03, 2016, 09:11:07 AM
Here is the last 365 days of export at 5x the resolution provided at hycom.
<snippage>
Amazing, A-Team.

Followed over the whole season, this years loss of MYI from the Pacific side looks positively catastrophic. 

The mobilization of the remaining thick pack along the CAA, Lincoln Sea and Northern Greenland is really disturbing.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 03, 2016, 11:04:17 AM
The latest GWC AMSR2 videos of the garlic press:

http://youtu.be/iPU4Y07VV8s (http://youtu.be/iPU4Y07VV8s)

and the Fram Strait:

http://youtu.be/cUH3SgfhXzs (http://youtu.be/cUH3SgfhXzs)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on October 03, 2016, 12:56:00 PM
Here are three ways of looking incrementally at the freeze/melt season from the September 10th minimum up to October 2nd. The last 2-3 days has seen melt (red) on the fringes overtaking freeze (green) though bulk ice pack motion needs consideration.

These animations take the difference between consecutive pairs of days and are similar to those long made by wipneus, though at a larger scale and from differently processed AMSR2 data, focusing only on the ice edge (open water) differences. The first animation starts on Sept 1st and pauses briefly on the 10th (red band).

These particular animations only take 5-6 clicks to make after re-purposing some menu options  -- I'll post something over at developers corner for those using gimp or imagemagick. Extracting quantitative areas on a large scale (hundreds of day pairs) remains a nuisance.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: werther on October 03, 2016, 09:37:28 PM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FDMI%2520Temp%252080N%252020161003_zps9qkxba24.jpg&hash=4e79655840e2b1dd3415d1d73b439bfe)

This looks pretty unprecedented. And in complete opposite of reported rapid sea ice extent regrowth…
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Cate on October 03, 2016, 10:58:55 PM
The Scribbler has just put up a post on heat in the Arctic and elsewhere this year.

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/10/03/abnormal-fall-arctic-warmth-intensifies-september-2016-probably-another-record-hot-month-globally/
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on October 03, 2016, 11:02:23 PM
UPDATE note new arctic cell link showing continued blocking pattern events pushing mid-latitude heat/water vapor north of 74'

latent heat

massive mid-latitude blocking patterns are once again forcing moisture and heat energy into the arctic cell.  This appears to be partially due to an increase of atmospheric water vapor post the latest El Nino?  We shall see if this continues.  I hate to imagine what the El Gygytgyn +8C from today at 400 ppm CO2 looks like, but it is starting to feel like an Eocene arctic future.



http://weather.utah.edu/index.php?runcode=2016100312&t=gfs004&r=NH&d=DT (http://weather.utah.edu/index.php?runcode=2016100312&t=gfs004&r=NH&d=DT)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 04, 2016, 05:23:36 AM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FDMI%2520Temp%252080N%252020161003_zps9qkxba24.jpg&hash=4e79655840e2b1dd3415d1d73b439bfe)

This looks pretty unprecedented. And in complete opposite of reported rapid sea ice extent regrowth…

(The T-graph is from here, if anyone was wondering http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php))

Entalphy of fusion at work, why not? As the ice edge gets over the fresher water dome produced by the melt, it hits saltier water from south and the Ts should drop pretty fast over the ice, ice growth stall, and the snows (ice fogs) on Arctic coasts should start. Or this is how I see it. But there's no knowing of what the weather will do, of course. Any signs of the climatological Arctic high yet? It should establish itself pretty soon after darkness hits, and put the polar vortex back in motion, or so would I think.  But there's no knowing of what the weather will do, of course.

Maybe the fast freeze this year is more a result of moisture condensing from the atmosphere and falling on the sea surface than direct freezing of sea water, so the T in air should stay higher than usual.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 04, 2016, 12:29:05 PM
The fast freeze seems to have hit a bit of a stall. Any guesses as to why?

I thought the one idea(above) about all the fresh water from prior melting and that puddled near the ice and then refreezing quickly, made some sense. That would explain a pause when the salt water was reached. But how much melt water would stay through storms and rough seas?

What about the slightly warmer peripheral waters and the less than ideal air temps?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on October 04, 2016, 02:00:26 PM
The fast freeze seems to have hit a bit of a stall. Any guesses as to why?

I thought the one idea(above) about all the fresh water from prior melting and that puddled near the ice and then refreezing quickly, made some sense. That would explain a pause when the salt water was reached. But how much melt water would stay through storms and rough seas?

What about the slightly warmer peripheral waters and the less than ideal air temps?

just look at seawater temps and wind/wave patterns and you got your answer, i mentioned this will happen a few days ago and the stall (with ups and downs) could continue for quite a while.

water temps are not slightly warmer, they are a lot warmer and a lot above average in peripheral seas. further air temps are way warmer above 80N than any previous year, including 2012. the energy/heat that has been there now for quite some time finally start to show it's effect. if the stormy conditions continue it will be a very late "real" refreeze because current temps do not explain the fast refreeze, must be a lot of freshwater and smaller floes floating around that held freshwater temps close to freezing temps.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on October 04, 2016, 02:58:57 PM
Quote
The fast freeze seems to have gone into reverse
Differencing of open water edge, consecutive days, from Sept 22nd to Oct 3rd.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Bruce Steele on October 04, 2016, 03:30:59 PM
Two new WHOI ITP buoys are up and running. They will give us some more info on the refreeze
season and hopefully will last into next year and provide Beaufort data for the summer melt.Their numbers are #97 and
#98.

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155136 (http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155136)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on October 04, 2016, 05:16:24 PM
Quote
Two new WHOI ITP buoys are up and running. They will give us some more info on the refreeze
We could sure use some real in situ data. The graphs are a little confusing in that the deeper of the pair lumps temperatures and salinity bottom bins that are shown at finer and  incremental scale in the upper images.

Here are two more complex views of the ice edge and just in from it over 22 Sep - 03 Oct 2016. Colors result from a shift between high and low sea ice concentration between consecutive day pairs. The overview has had noise filtering to simplify the color scheme; the Wrangel arm close-up shows AMSR2 3.1k UHH at the full resolution provided. After watching many times, ignoring the central area, and referencing the normal view (3rd animation in post #164), you can get a sense of the changes.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Lord M Vader on October 04, 2016, 06:19:36 PM
IJIS is back! And with a very interesting result too! I suppose it's the first time as an extent drop have occurred two days in a row in October(!!!) For the dates of September 27 to October 3 the IJIS SIE numbers were:

September 27: 5011447 km2
September 28: 5030140 km2 (up 18693)
September 29: 5013331 km2 (down 16809)
September 30: 5040582 km2 (up 27251)
October 1: 5035947 km2 (down 4635)
October 2:5013789 km2 (down 22158)
October 3:5034338 km2 (up 20549)

Historical or what?! Or just me who have missed something here? Obviously, there have been some small drops in October in the past, for example in 2011 and 2009.

Best, LMV
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 04, 2016, 07:39:25 PM
This season is full of surprises. I guess too much heat all around even now.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 04, 2016, 10:19:30 PM

Entalphy of fusion at work, why not?
<snippage>
Maybe the fast freeze this year is more a result of moisture condensing from the atmosphere and falling on the sea surface than direct freezing of sea water, so the T in air should stay higher than usual.
To your first point - I don't think there is enough ice forming to provide the necessary heat for the graph we are looking at.  As other posters have said - there's enormous quantities of sensible heat and moisture being driven into high latitudes by the endless series of cyclones we are seeing on both the Atlantic and Pacific.

To your second point... this hypothesis may have some sense to it, as that moisture precipitating out *will* be snow, and will be landing in water cold enough to prevent it from melting.  In sufficient quantity it would rapidly form nilas, and with a small additional dump of heat, have that fused into 20-30CM thick pack ice - quite enough to register as new extent.

The further problem we now have is, all that moisture falling now as snow will be piling onto that new ice, and reducing heat flow *out* of the water, all the while replacing/displacing heat flow out of the ice through the top of the atmosphere.  I'm pessimistic about the coming refreeze and the condition the ice will be in at max.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 04, 2016, 10:28:33 PM
<snip>
We could sure use some real in situ data. The graphs are a little confusing in that the deeper of the pair lumps temperatures and salinity bottom bins that are shown at finer and  incremental scale in the upper images.

Here are two more complex views of the ice edge and just in from it over 22 Sep - 03 Oct 2016.
<snip>
Watching the graph, it seems like there is a distinct outer margin the pack is bouncing off of.  On the Atlantic side, our oft-discussed front along extraordinarily warm Barents and Greenland Seas, and on the Pacific, the similar but not as superheated peripheral seas.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Andreas T on October 04, 2016, 11:11:15 PM
this is what ITP97 reports from its last position on 2016/10/4 60015 UTC : 79.1319° N, 150.7375° W: a 0deg layer just 50m below the surface. The heat content of 80m of water which is  on average 1degC above freezing (salt water) could prevent 1m of ice formation. But as has been said before: thinner ice also lets more heat escape.
http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155136 (http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155136)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 05, 2016, 09:04:01 AM
this is what ITP97 reports from its last position on 2016/10/4 60015 UTC : 79.1319° N, 150.7375° W: a 0deg layer just 50m below the surface. The heat content of 80m of water which is  on average 1degC above freezing (salt water) could prevent 1m of ice formation. But as has been said before: thinner ice also lets more heat escape.
http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155136 (http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155136)
Judging from this map,  and what you've just posted, I think we have the cause behind why the pack hasn't expanded faster than it has, what will limit its expansion over the next 4-6 weeks or more, and where some of the incredible heat (beyond what's being imported) is coming from.

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on October 05, 2016, 12:58:58 PM
this is what ITP97 reports from its last position on 2016/10/4 60015 UTC : 79.1319° N, 150.7375° W: a 0deg layer just 50m below the surface. The heat content of 80m of water which is  on average 1degC above freezing (salt water) could prevent 1m of ice formation. But as has been said before: thinner ice also lets more heat escape.
http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155136 (http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155136)
can one have a layer of heat staying there like that, fossilized, during the freezing season?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 05, 2016, 03:48:07 PM
Who bumped the thermostat?
Thermostat didn't change - its the expected temperatures which dropped.

The problem being shown here, is the heat is hanging around, rather than dissipating.  It may be from heat coming out of open water, it may be a side effect of the huge inputs of moisture being pulled into the Arctic with Cyclones.  It may be something else, or a combination.

But, the heat is still there, and that may present a problem.  It won't prevent refreeze, but it will prevent thickening.

I think one of the single biggest changes in the Arctic is the heavy load of moisture that is now routinely present in the atmosphere. An ice capped Arctic Ocean could best be described as a desert if you looked at precipitation with clear, sunny skies and a persistent high pressure. Due to the large stretches of open water, we now have a frequently cloudy Arctic, often with thick fog. I believe this energy rich moisture is feeding the increasingly stormy weather and clouds in the winter have got to be reducing the amount of heat radiating into space. This also has to be altering northern hemisphere weather in ways that are not clearly understood.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Bruce Steele on October 05, 2016, 07:14:15 PM
Seaicesailor, Yes the layer of warm water can persist year round. It is called Pacific Warm water and it's origin is via the Bering Strait. The Pacific Warm Water is one of the major defining characteristics  of Beaufort gyre water that differentiate it from arctic waters on the Atlantic side. You can see the durability of these waters in the yellow band in the Temperature/Salinity contours from this 300 +day run on WHOI ITP  buoy # 85 .  See link

Although there is a lot of heat represented it is usually insulated by the much colder fresh water lens that floats above it so direct transfer of Pacific Warm Water heat to the surface ice is rare. Surface insolation is a much larger contributor to ice melt.

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=139056 (http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=139056)


I also noticed a ice mass balance buoy went in with ITP 98. This should make Jim Hunt happy.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 05, 2016, 07:25:14 PM
I also noticed a ice mass balance buoy went in with ITP 98. This should make Jim Hunt happy.

I noticed that too. I'll be slightly happier if it ever appears on the CRREL/ERDC "New Results (https://imb.erdc.dren.mil/newdata.htm)" page!
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on October 06, 2016, 01:37:54 PM
In my view, it is silly to wait around for the entire Arctic Ocean to be below some arbitrary sq km cut-off and downright preposterous to wait around for five consecutive such years -- in terms of effects, the future is already here in considerable measure for the Beaufort, Chukchi, Barents, and polar front areas.

How could it not be?

The first animation shows the open water boundary of a Beaufort/Chukchi wedge for Sept 1st through Oct 4th. These waters are already seasonally ice-free for much of the insolation season and well into the fall and so are already having their 'end-game' effects on albedo, radiation budget, cloud formation, NH atmosphere, etc.

The second animation overlays the open water boundaries over Worldview infrared cloud imagery of the same dates. As jdallen notes above, a heavy cloud cover is not altogether unexpected. http://go.nasa.gov/2dTmCyZ (http://go.nasa.gov/2dTmCyZ)

Using this partition, the third animation (of Sep 10th) then classifies the cloud cover by thickness, separately for over open water and for over ice. This scheme uses just three bins for thick, thin and clear which is by no means an adequate characterization of clouds and their effect on the Arctic Ocean energy budget.

However these cloud masks, along with length of day, sun angle,and Project Sheba data from Perovich are a start on insolation reaching the surface and heat emissions being re-radiated back down from the local greenhouse effect.

The fourth image is just a visual definition of the Arctic Ocean used to convert AMRS2 UHH pixels into square kilometers for purposes of the spreadsheet columns overlaid on the first animation. Wipneus, somewhere, has a similar definition with more accurate areas. Note that official bodies such as the Int'l Hydrological Union throw in various extraneous waters such as Hudson Bay into their Arctic Ocean definition (see map at wikipedia).
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 06, 2016, 04:01:59 PM
Just eyeballing Polarview, it looks like concentration has took a sharp downturn the last few days.
I guess it could be a glitch. I don't know, though. There could be another explanation. Worth keeping an eye on.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 06, 2016, 04:20:41 PM
Here is what I am talking about. Maybe someone else can do better, but this is best visual I could find.

Click it to activate

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on October 06, 2016, 09:04:47 PM
Quote
concentration has took a sharp downturn the last few days.
Indeed, the central ice pack numbers have been wobbling back and forth. Open water can be quantitated quickly just clicking on the deepest blue on the daily AMSR2 3.1k and counting pixels. Below are the numbers for the Beaufort/Chukchi wedge above. These are easily extended back to the spring equinox.

In terms of maximal wave fetch in the season of maximal winds (now), for mixing water at depth, it doesn't get any better. In short, the surface water has just gotten too warm. The precious but precarious thermal stratification of the Arctic Ocean periphery is unravelling; the 800 kg gorilla is loose. Air doesn't have the heat capacity to cool warm water that's not radiating effectively because of the cloud cover it has helped make.

The columns are date, millions of sq km of open water in the B/C, daily melt/freeze and percent of possible overall open water.

04 Oct 16   2.91    -9   53.4 %
03 Oct 16   2.99     0   54.8 %
02 Oct 16   2.98    -3   54.7 %
01 Oct 16   3.01    14   55.1 %
30 Sep 16   2.90    -1   53.1 %
29 Sep 16   2.90     1   53.3 %
28 Sep 16   2.89     8   53.1 %
27 Sep 16   2.83   -12   51.9 % min
26 Sep 16   2.92   -17   53.5 %
25 Sep 16   3.05    -2   56.0 %
24 Sep 16   3.07     7   56.2 %
23 Sep 16   3.01   -10   55.1 %
22 Sep 16   3.09    -3   56.6 %
21 Sep 16   3.11   -11   57.0 %
20 Sep 16   3.19    -9   58.5 %
19 Sep 16   3.27     0   59.9 %
18 Sep 16   3.27    -5   59.9 %
17 Sep 16   3.31    -7   60.6 %
16 Sep 16   3.37    -4   61.7 %
15 Sep 16   3.40    -4   62.3 %
14 Sep 16   3.43     2   62.8 %
13 Sep 16   3.41     0   62.6 %
12 Sep 16   3.41    -6   62.5 %
11 Sep 16   3.46   -17   63.4 %
10 Sep 16   3.59   -13   65.8 %
09 Sep 16   3.69    -9   67.7 %
08 Sep 16   3.76    -9   68.9 %
07 Sep 16   3.83    -1   70.2 %
06 Sep 16   3.84     6   70.4 % max
05 Sep 16   3.79     1   69.5 %
04 Sep 16   3.79     1   69.4 %
03 Sep 16   3.80    -4   69.6 %
02 Sep 16   3.83    12   70.1 %
01 Sep 16   3.73     0   68.4 %
34 day ave: 3.32  -3.2   61.0%
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 06, 2016, 10:35:43 PM
Agree completely about the heat, and have seen many others concerned about it. I am afraid there may be some late bottom melt eroding  the thickness of the heart of the pack, all while the pack is growing in extent.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 07, 2016, 03:07:23 AM
Looking back over Polarview images just now, and noticed an upswing in Fram export and flushing through CAA passages, especially over the last six days. This may have at the very least contributed to thinning the pack.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Bruce Steele on October 07, 2016, 04:05:37 AM
Tigertown, We have largely been without buoys in the Beaufort for this past summer melt season but just recently three new buoys are sending water temperature and salinity readings.  WHOI  ITP 99 is the latest sending data. Interestingly it was placed in open water.  All three of the new buoys are in the Beaufort and all three show a cold fresh water lens of  about -1.6 degree water.  This  isn't  warm enough to cause surface melt. If it was very saline and -1.6 maybe but I don't don't think there is evidence of bottom melt , at least at the three buoys we now are getting data from.
 There may be some areas in the arctic more favorable to upwelling than others, I believe there are anyway, and I don't think the buoys now sending data are in those areas but the now expanding ice really isn't where I think upwelling is likely to occur either.
 So until I see a buoy with some indication of upwelling I will need more convincing that is a mechanism responsible for bottom melt. Someday yes there will be forces strong enough to break down the temperature/salinity driven stratification that protects the ice.  It will likely be in  areas close to shore in the Southern Beaufort or close to the New Siberian Islands.  Those are areas where some upwelling is indicated but getting a buoy in the right place at the right time to document the breakdown of the low salinity cold surface layer isn't something I have seen and I have been watching for it for several years.


http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155157 (http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155157)


Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Bruce Steele on October 07, 2016, 04:33:26 AM
O.K.  With the caveat that the WHOI ITP 97 buoy is new and the info it is sending maybe somewhat suspect I would like to point to the data is has sent the last couple days as something curious and maybe indicative of what a breakdown in the surface freshwater lens might look like. The  surface temperature has increased from-1.6 to ~ -1.0 and the salinity has increased from 28.5 to ~ 32 in a very short amount of time. This has happened below a layer of surface ice.  Worth watching more closely and I may have to eat my own words ( see above post )  if the buoy is sending good data.
 It is good to be an amateur sometimes as it gives me a certain amount of room to ask other better informed expertise to chime in , so maybe someone can better describe what is going on at ITP 98?


http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155156 (http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155156)

Edited. I changed buoy number ( thanks Jim ) and added correct link . See T/S contours



http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155136 (http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155136)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 07, 2016, 04:34:44 AM
Agree completely about the heat, and have seen many others concerned about it. I am afraid there may be some late bottom melt eroding  the thickness of the heart of the pack, all while the pack is growing in extent.

Almost a certainty, considering the sea surface temperatures we are still seeing.

It's going to be a dynamic balance between the rate of heat flow and the near surface ocean temperatures. 

I'm reasonably convinced that was a factor at work in last season's anemic refreeze, which had large stretches of ice well under 2M thick even towards the end of the season.  Add the enormous inputs of heat we had, and what we see now is no surprise to me. I really wish we had more buoy data about the state of the water column.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 07, 2016, 05:41:14 AM
Just noticed this in the other thread and it really helped put the pieces together.
From the 2016 sea ice and extent data thread. Reply #961



Wipneus,   "Four days of area (shadow CT-area that is) drops in a row:

day  CT-date       NH               SH                Global
Mon 2016.7507  +68.2  3.656771   +7.8 13.875301   +76.0 17.532072
Tue 2016.7534 +134.0  3.790730  +62.6 13.937874  +196.5 17.728604
Wed 2016.7562  -83.5  3.707184  +69.8 14.007681   -13.7 17.714865
Thu 2016.7589  -27.3  3.679907  +43.1 14.050775   +15.8 17.730682
Fri 2016.7616  -63.6  3.616354  -55.4 13.995418  -118.9 17.611772
Sat 2016.7644   -2.4  3.613994  -24.6 13.970800   -27.0 17.584794


All in the CAB. Other area calculations (Jaxa, Uni Hamburg) do not show such big drops, just a slowdown in growth.

Since extent continues to grow, the compactness for the NSIDC sea ice concentration drops to remarkable low values. See the attached graph.

The attached delta map now spans 4 days, showing were that concentration dropped."

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 07, 2016, 05:57:22 AM
O.K.  With the caveat that the WHOI ITP 98 buoy is new and the info it is sending maybe somewhat suspect I would like to point to the data is has sent the last couple days as something curious and maybe indicative of what a breakdown in the surface freshwater lens might look like. The  surface temperature has increased from-1.6 to ~ -1.0 and the salinity has increased from 28.5 to ~ 32 in a very short amount of time. This has happened below a layer of surface ice.  Worth watching more closely and I may have to eat my own words ( see above post )  if the buoy is sending good data.
 It is good to be an amateur sometimes as it gives me a certain amount of room to ask other better informed expertise to chime in , so maybe someone can better describe what is going on at ITP 98?


http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155156 (http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155156)
The Buoy is probably fine. A few comments above A-Team mentioned rough seas mixing the waters and bringing both warmer water and salinity to the surface. Each reading could have been right at the given times. Anyway, glad the buoys are back in town.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: effbeh on October 07, 2016, 11:08:40 AM
Arctic temperature anomaly now up to +4.99°C according to Climate Reanalyzer Daily View.  As the expected average temperature is further declining, it will grow every day.  Increasingly curious how this will continue.  Failing to get any colder, it looks more and more like the entry to a new and different world:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Focean.dmi.dk%2Farctic%2Fplots%2FmeanTarchive%2FmeanT_2016.png&hash=ed3bc1964e488b5d83cfae05c243a1bc)

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 07, 2016, 12:59:32 PM
O.K.  With the caveat that the WHOI ITP 98 buoy is new and the info it is sending maybe somewhat suspect I would like to point to the data is has sent the last couple days as something curious and maybe indicative of what a breakdown in the surface freshwater lens might look like.

Don't you mean ITP 97 (http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155136) Bruce? The one that was "deployed in open water".  Its location seems to be well within the pack?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on October 07, 2016, 01:37:01 PM
It's widely believed on these forums that incident solar energy ceases to significantly heat open water in areas like the Beaufort in the fall, with some holding that irrelevance has already set in by late August. Yes and no.

The rapidly expanding pole hole on WorldView visible channels indeed shows markedly shortening daylight hours at these latitudes, but thanks to Project Sheba we have actual daily measurement of solar energy received through the clouds at the Arctic Ocean surface for the May 1st to Oct 1st season for the Beaufort (first figure). There's no way an ab initio calculation can compare in accuracy with observation.

Open water albedo was also measured at 8%; the exponential fall-off of heat adsorption with depth in sea water (Beer's Law) deposits most of this energy in the top ten meters (as up-shifted by seasonal planktonic content).

Since the area of open water in the Arctic Ocean is easily and accurately measured year-round via AMSR2, we're in a position to estimate solar energy capture by waters of the Beaufort/Chukchi over the entire season by weighting the open acreage by solar input for date each of the 154 days of the insolation season, with data for the years 2013-16 and the latter months of 2012 readily available.

According to surface observations, there is still about 20 watts per sq meter input of solar heat being received on Oct 1st which may only be ~5 percent of the 350 w/m2 seen on the 20 June 16 solstice, yet here's a lot more open water now (3.2:1 with Oct 1st open water at 3 million sq km, previous post) so total heat input to open water on Oct 1st is a respectable 16% of the June peak (2nd figure). For the overall Arctic Ocean, this ratio is even more pronounced, 4.8:1 in favor of Oct 1st (3rd figure).

Being so broadly distributed, this heat doesn't raise water temperatures so much (being further affected by mixing by longer fetch during peak wind season) but does contribute to the earth's deteriorating energy balance as the planet's former refrigerator.

Parts of the Beaufort'/Chukchi are already there in terms of being seasonally ice-free. And then there is the Barents Sea, mid-winter.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Ninebelowzero on October 07, 2016, 04:59:22 PM
Current jetstream loopiness.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fsquall.sfsu.edu%2Fgif%2Fjetstream_norhem_00.gif&hash=211e06efbc0339eb372a10a2781023f4)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Lord M Vader on October 07, 2016, 05:48:07 PM
A-team: don't forget Kara Sea!
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on October 07, 2016, 06:12:36 PM
O.K.  With the caveat that the WHOI ITP 98 buoy is new and the info it is sending maybe somewhat suspect I would like to point to the data is has sent the last couple days as something curious and maybe indicative of what a breakdown in the surface freshwater lens might look like. The  surface temperature has increased from-1.6 to ~ -1.0 and the salinity has increased from 28.5 to ~ 32 in a very short amount of time. This has happened below a layer of surface ice.  Worth watching more closely and I may have to eat my own words ( see above post )  if the buoy is sending good data.
 It is good to be an amateur sometimes as it gives me a certain amount of room to ask other better informed expertise to chime in , so maybe someone can better describe what is going on at ITP 98?


http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155156 (http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155156)
The Buoy is probably fine. A few comments above A-Team mentioned rough seas mixing the waters and bringing both warmer water and salinity to the surface. Each reading could have been right at the given times. Anyway, glad the buoys are back in town.

you certainly mean "out of town" LOL just kidding, agree with your meaning of course, hope the little tease is well taken. cheers :-) :D
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Hefaistos on October 07, 2016, 06:33:25 PM
Current jetstream loopiness.


Indeed, very weak.
Animated version:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-1.09,80.47,361/loc=-5.273,37.112
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on October 07, 2016, 06:46:03 PM
Current jetstream loopiness.


Indeed, very weak.
Animated version:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-1.09,80.47,361/loc=-5.273,37.112 (https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-1.09,80.47,361/loc=-5.273,37.112)

3 days hence:  https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/10/10/1500Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/equirectangular=-153.99,76.16,519/loc=-5.273,37.112 (https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/10/10/1500Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/equirectangular=-153.99,76.16,519/loc=-5.273,37.112)

this is a lower altitude, one that brings significant water vapor (from Western Pacific hurricane activity) into the arctic cell.   I outlined these kind of blocking pattern pushes into the arctic cell in the thread "changes in mid-latitude hydrology" in the consequences section.  It is this kind of activity, along with increased atmospheric water vapor levels in a warming world and following the slowdown of the polar jet that I conceive an eventual collapse of the arctic cell in Winter time and the mechanism that allows for a rapid increase of the already large arctic amplification effect on temperatures (during the Winter months)

thread here:  http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,784.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,784.0.html)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 07, 2016, 08:44:16 PM
Just look at all the places that are below normal temps. The precious Arctic cool air is spread all over the Northern Hemisphere;scientists say its the weak Jet Stream's that's to blame.

 
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 07, 2016, 10:14:58 PM
Just look at all the places that are below normal temps. The precious Arctic cool air is spread all over the Northern Hemisphere;scientists say its the weak Jet Stream's that's to blame.
The anomalies are massive, already up into the +20C range across large stretches of the Arctic, and predicted to continue.  A quick comparison on Climate Reanalyzer  suggests we are substantially warmer than at the same time last year.

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 08, 2016, 01:57:07 AM
I mentioned the Fram yesterday. Here's the glob of ice that has turned the N.E. corner of Greenland and headed south. As you can see it doesn't survive for long, even this late in the year.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 08, 2016, 09:00:14 AM
"...Some scientists state the weak Jet Stream is to blame..." let us silently remind us what the Jet Stream is, how it is generated, and pray the scientists in question do the same.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Sleepy on October 08, 2016, 11:37:17 AM
The AO is currently strongly negative (attachment). It's also negative in the stratosphere. We might see more of that this winter, unfortunately.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Hefaistos on October 08, 2016, 12:39:42 PM
Hansen explains the relation between AO and jet stream in this way:
"The degree to which Arctic air penetrates into middle latitudes is related to the AO index, which is defined by surface atmospheric pressure patterns. When the AO index is positive, surface pressure is low in the polar region. This helps the middle latitude jet stream to blow strongly and consistently from west to east, thus keeping cold Arctic air locked in the polar region. When the AO index is negative, there tends to be high pressure in the polar region, weaker zonal winds, and greater movement of frigid polar air into middle latitudes."

Hansen, James; Reto Ruedy; Makiko Sato; Ken Lo (2009). "If It's That Warm, How Come It's So Damned Cold?"
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on October 08, 2016, 01:29:14 PM
Seaicesailor, Yes the layer of warm water can persist year round. It is called Pacific Warm water and it's origin is via the Bering Strait. The Pacific Warm Water is one of the major defining characteristics  of Beaufort gyre water that differentiate it from arctic waters on the Atlantic side. You can see the durability of these waters in the yellow band in the Temperature/Salinity contours from this 300 +day run on WHOI ITP  buoy # 85 .  See link

Although there is a lot of heat represented it is usually insulated by the much colder fresh water lens that floats above it so direct transfer of Pacific Warm Water heat to the surface ice is rare. Surface insolation is a much larger contributor to ice melt.

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=139056 (http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=139056)


I also noticed a ice mass balance buoy went in with ITP 98. This should make Jim Hunt happy.

Thank you Bruce. I would assume this year had seen some of this heat impact the now impressively void of ice Pacific sector, but rocket science is kindergarten stuff compared to ocean processes in the Arctic it seems.

So, on another note, what used to be an early refreeze season, "baaaad for the ice for whatever reasons" is morphing into a late refreeze "baaaad for the ice for whatever reasons". Or not so bad. Or just the way it is.
What seems clear is how bad the thick ice is positioned for next year.
A-Team amazing stuff!! Enjoying every day lecture. Thank you very much.

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on October 08, 2016, 01:46:54 PM
The HYCOM is nowcasting a tremendous :-) pulse of Bering inflow.
SSS being represented. Green, more saline. Blue, less saline
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on October 08, 2016, 02:57:42 PM
Quote
don't forget peripheral seas such as Kara, Okhotsk, Bering, Norwegian and earlier snow-free permafrost land.
As a public service, I digitized the key journal graphic of DK Perovich showing a full season of solar heat influx measured at the surface of the Beaufort. That's provided as the .txt attachment below which is really a .cvs spreadsheet file.

The initial graphic was a bit funky, not being provided at high resolution and using phong-rendered metallic balls (inset on first graphic) instead of points or cross-hatches to indicate the data points. However just like a Landsat can be grossly over-sampled yet still be informative, it proved feasible to position vertical bars precisely and use their pixel heights as watts/sq meter values (after adjusting for irrationality in the vertical scale rendering).

Powerful online curve-fitting tools (such as http://www.xuru.org/rt/LR.asp (http://www.xuru.org/rt/LR.asp)) aren't helpful here because the data, being so affected by clouds, is just a single noisy sample from an unknown underlying distribution. However common sense suggests that function peaks at the summer solstice and tapers off monotonically on both sides without inflection points, constraining its first and second derivatives.

A rolling window convolution can then 'take out the clouds' to a certain extent (6th column of spreadsheet), yielding a reasonably tight upper bound on daily solar heat influx into open water at the latitudes of the Beaufort Sea. A top-down approach starting with the TOA solar black body spectrum and taking out atmospheric absorption isn't going to work as well, either via Ceres or modeling, because of the oblique optical path taken by light reaching the Arctic Ocean.

In summary, taking the 'dot product' of AMSR2 daily open water with column 6 solar heat influx over the 2016 season (coming shortly) will likely indicate that a quite respectable fraction of the total solar heat to be absorbed by the 'seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean' is already being taken up (since the remaining non-peripheral seas are at even more unfavorable solar latitudes).

Consequently, the effects of polar radiator loss have already begun -- what mysterious physical process could be holding them off? There's little purpose served waiting upon tipping points or invoking changes of state, whistling in your tent won't keep the bear out. Yes, there is a distinction between polar bear, grizzly bear and black bear but it's still a bear.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 08, 2016, 08:08:58 PM
This freeze season is unprecedented if for no other reason than the state of the ice at the end of the melt season, highly fractured and widely dispersed, more so than any other season that I have witnessed. We should pay close attention to how this freeze season progresses with this in mind. How might the initial state of the ice and open seas impact the freeze season?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 08, 2016, 11:15:09 PM
The HYCOM is nowcasting a tremendous :-) pulse of Bering inflow.
SSS being represented. Green, more saline. Blue, less saline

Is this natural or perhaps being driven by the "Blob" so to speak?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on October 09, 2016, 12:30:44 AM
The HYCOM is nowcasting a tremendous :-) pulse of Bering inflow.
SSS being represented. Green, more saline. Blue, less saline

Is this natural or perhaps being driven by the "Blob" so to speak?
It is being pushed by strong southernlies, note the isobars due to the low in the Asian side. Natural in any case.
Not sure how persistent it will be, but sure it is very noticeable in the simulations.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 09, 2016, 01:16:24 AM
And I am also sure that,in addition to extra salinity, warmth is being carried into the Arctic as well.
Not that it needs anymore.But that will most likely keep the waters on that side from cooling like they should. That's some of the warmest in the Pacific(for that latitude anyhow), just off the Alaskan coast.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 09, 2016, 07:46:38 AM
Cross-posting this, as I just left the IJIS thread. Interestingly, no update today. Only a small gain yesterday. NSIDC showed a slight drop on the 7th. Wipneus reported shadow CT-area drops 4 days in a row on the 2016 sea ice area and extent data thread, and concentration drops. You can see this just by eyeballing polarview over the last 7 or 8 days.
For anyone that doesn't have the link, I know most do.
www.polarview.aq/sic/arctic/ (http://www.polarview.aq/sic/arctic/)

[Update]  IJIS finally updated with 5k+ gain, BornFromTheVoid  says this October has smallest increase in extent on record.

Maybe some losses due to export. Mostly stall, I guess. If there's melt going on, it's hidden, other than the exported ice. I know this can't last perpetually, but it's got to sting.
Anyhow, just trying to summarize for perspective sake.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 09, 2016, 08:22:11 PM
O.K.  With the caveat that the WHOI ITP 97 buoy is new and the info it is sending maybe somewhat suspect I would like to point to the data is has sent the last couple days as something curious and maybe indicative of what a breakdown in the surface freshwater lens might look like.

Now the interesting looking profiles seem to have vanished?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on October 09, 2016, 09:01:25 PM
I think from time to time it's well worth to have a look at global sea-ice extent as well :-)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on October 09, 2016, 11:04:26 PM
Quote
Mostly stalled.
The first animation shows, despite the encroaching pole hole of winter, not much much net retreat of open water in the Beaufort/Chukchi.

The second shows an apparent algal bloom in the Barents area, with right half split frame showing the muddy green enhanced by false color. Suomi is shown (as it is synched with AMRSR2 ice edge sequences) but Aqua and Terra also show green here.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Bruce Steele on October 09, 2016, 11:18:49 PM
Jim Hunt,  I guess preliminary data was faulty , I had some reservations. The top reading we get from the ITP buoys is at 7 meters. For ITP 97 , 98 , and 99 we have -1.5175 , -1.5694 and -1.5016 respectively  with salinity at 27.8635 , 28.8205 , and 27.6486. 
 There is a conversation over on the ASIB about surface water temperatures in the refreezing areas . Ostensibly surface water with ice floating around is -1.8 so it appears there is still a bit of heat
 ( within 7 meters ) of the surface ice at ITP 98 . It wouldn't take much wind to mix water that close to the surface. Not the same thing as upwelling but surface mixing has some potential to keep refreeze constrained for awhile longer.  So these buoys from 77.0832 N to 78.6829 N. are giving us some interesting info.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 10, 2016, 01:17:06 AM
Surface mixing has some potential to keep refreeze constrained for awhile longer.

If you've not seen it before you may be interested in the September 2015 "ArcticMix" cruise by R/V Sikuliaq in the Beaufort Sea:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1385.msg63473.html#msg63473 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1385.msg63473.html#msg63473)

Quote
While we hypothesized this might be happening, we have been genuinely thunderstruck by how incredibly strong the turbulence is below the surface. This heat is likely playing a substantial role in the melting of the ice that we can see all around us, growing thinner every day, and our job now is to distinguish summer melting from longer term change.

Near-inertial internal waves (NIW) can propagate downwards into stratified water and break hundreds of meters or more below the surface. Crucially, mixing in this depth range can tap into the large heat reservoir of Atlantic-origin water. Increased turbulent heat fluxes up from this water mass could significantly warm the upper ocean and accelerate ice loss.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tealight on October 10, 2016, 02:19:11 AM
I think from time to time it's well worth to have a look at global sea-ice extent as well :-)

The southern hemisphere decided to copy the 2016 Arctic spring in terms of sea ice area  ;)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 10, 2016, 04:03:10 AM

Quote
While we hypothesized this might be happening, we have been genuinely thunderstruck by how incredibly strong the turbulence is below the surface. This heat is likely playing a substantial role in the melting of the ice that we can see all around us, growing thinner every day, and our job now is to distinguish summer melting from longer term change.

Near-inertial internal waves (NIW) can propagate downwards into stratified water and break hundreds of meters or more below the surface. Crucially, mixing in this depth range can tap into the large heat reservoir of Atlantic-origin water. Increased turbulent heat fluxes up from this water mass could significantly warm the upper ocean and accelerate ice loss.


Thank you Jim Hunt for bringing this out again,as some of us were not here last year. It would seem to me that the Arctic is more vulnerable to these kind of waves now than ever before. When thick heavy ice served as a sort of ballast(maybe someone has a better word), the heat down from the deep stayed there, but is now very accessible. That is scary;no sunlight needed for melting. Moisture and cloud cover,it seems would just hold the heat longer.

P.S. I had to haul water in an open container once on the back of a truck. Someone told me to put a heavy block of wood in the water. It absorbed much of the energy from the sloshing of the water, and cut down on loss. Without it, we probably would have been wasting our time, and arrived with a half empty container. Ice being heavier than wood(even wet wood), I can imagine how much energy it would absorb, and how much more the water gets disturbed with a lack of it.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: 6roucho on October 10, 2016, 06:02:21 AM
I think from time to time it's well worth to have a look at global sea-ice extent as well :-)

The southern hemisphere decided to copy the 2016 Arctic spring in terms of sea ice area  ;)
In the context of the Arctic spring, which was itself an outlier event, that's a very interesting graph.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Bruce Steele on October 10, 2016, 07:05:49 AM
Jim Hunt, Although I try to read as much as I can on the forum I did miss the Arctic -Mix cruise. The links posted there gave me some impetus to look a little deeper into internal waves and mixing across isopycnal layers.  I found a paper on the subject with some pictures that help me better understand a subject I will need to study more closely .  There are plenty of difficult subjects discussed here that give me plenty to think about. Anyway thanks for the little push.

I would put up the link but it failed .
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on October 10, 2016, 10:20:23 PM
The first animation shows ice that is neither open water nor solid ice (100% concentration) according to UHH AMSR2 from Sept 1st to Oct 9th. The 9th is reproduced separately as a fixed image (dates offset).

The ups and downs in the area of intermediate ice are plotted in the static graph (3rd image) from data supplied as a cvs .txt attachment. As noted before, persistent patterns in sequential AMSR2 images cannot be attributed to fleeting atmospheric or surface artifacts.

The maximum occurred on Sept 5th and the minimum on Oct 3rd. If the trend to Sept 5th had continued a few more days, the ice would have been in sorry shape indeed.

Parallel comprehensive commentary over at another forum is coming to similar conclusions using alternative approaches:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1457.msg91228.html#msg91228 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1457.msg91228.html#msg91228)  #961- #968
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on October 10, 2016, 11:28:59 PM
Amazing graph of Jan-Sept arctic (>66N) warming Can't embed gif but worth viewing

https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/782972414774775809
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: crandles on October 10, 2016, 11:39:00 PM
Webinar:
 
"The 2016 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) – Post Season Discussion” on Tuesday, 11 October 2016, 8:00am to 9:00am (AKDT) – Speakers: Larry Hamilton, University of New Hampshire and Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, University of Washington.

Preregistration is required - only requirement an email address register at

https://www.arcus.org/sipn/meetings/webinars/register (https://www.arcus.org/sipn/meetings/webinars/register)

Quote
This webinar is designed for the sea ice research community and others
interested in discussion about the 2016 SIO and post season analysis.
While this is an open event, attendees should be aware that the discussions
will largely be of a technical nature.

Probably wrong place for this, sorry, but wasn't sure where else to place it. Also sorry if it has been linked before.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on October 11, 2016, 12:09:21 AM
Quote
Amazing graph of Jan-Sept arctic (>66N) warming Can't embed gif but worth viewing
Yes, that new html5 'gif' twitter format for animations is really annoying. There seems to be no access to the actual gif image stack and no way of re-dstributing. It does not "protect IP content" (NCAR is public domain to begin with) because a tool providing very fast sequential screen shots, followed by cropping, retiming, and reposting, would fall under new art and fair use. On a mac, the free utility 'Grab' can be variably timed to do just that. Twitter stock down 15% today, interest has dwindled.

Here, no real purpose was served by animating. The final frame says it all.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Blizzard92 on October 11, 2016, 12:40:26 AM
Thanks! You can find the original gif here along with other sea ice figures (extent/thickness/volume/etc) under "Research Areas" on the website. I try to update them daily; eventually I will get them self-updated when I have some extra time... http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/ (http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: abbottisgone on October 11, 2016, 06:48:39 AM
I think from time to time it's well worth to have a look at global sea-ice extent as well :-)

The southern hemisphere decided to copy the 2016 Arctic spring in terms of sea ice area  ;)
Excellent: good call from magnamentis and backed up by tealight! GO TEAM!!

 ;)

I too think the global sea ice pattern is worth looking at and the Antarctic has certainly gone up and down. I think it was wayne that said science generally regards observation before explanation as the preferred timing of events.

 ;) ;)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Neven on October 11, 2016, 11:33:20 AM
Thanks! You can find the original gif here along with other sea ice figures (extent/thickness/volume/etc) under "Research Areas" on the website. I try to update them daily; eventually I will get them self-updated when I have some extra time... http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/ (http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/)

Thanks for those two temperature images. I've added them to the long-term graphs (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/longterm) page on the ASIG.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on October 11, 2016, 03:09:07 PM
Below the freezing of open water in the Beaufort-Chukchi seas is compared for the last five years from the equinox on Sept 22nd to Oct 15th. (The 2016 panel is static from the 10th on as future days are not yet available; the 2012 panel stops on Sep 30th as no later dates have been processed yet at UH.) This needs a click to animate, it is ineffectual reduced to the forum's 700 pixel limit.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on October 11, 2016, 03:37:57 PM
Quote
Thanks for those two temperature images
That one with the monthly ranking is quite dramatic after blurring the color squares and rotating the hue ...
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on October 11, 2016, 04:50:16 PM
Here is the ice edge for 2013-2015 compared 2016 for the whole Arctic Ocean on Oct 10th.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 12, 2016, 05:28:46 AM
Anyone have an inkling of an idea as to how to estimate how much ice(volume-wise) that's being lost through the CAA passages and the Fram. Watching these over several days time, they look like some sort of mechanized pump station.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 14, 2016, 05:38:12 AM
Looks like we are back in the freezing business. Good thing. It was getting close to lay-off time.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 14, 2016, 07:33:07 AM
Anyone have an inkling of an idea as to how to estimate how much ice(volume-wise) that's being lost through the CAA passages and the Fram. Watching these over several days time, they look like some sort of mechanized pump station.
Not that much through the CAA - 5000KM2 of export a day would only add up to 2 or 3 KM3/day of volume at this stage.

At its fastest, the Fram will dump out about 20,000KM2 of ice.  Assuming a reasonable average of about 2.5M in thickness, that would be about 50KM3/Day.  In winter that will be recovered pretty quickly.

I'd recon more reasonably, we're looking at 15-20KM3/day of export over time.

The export is far more critical in the summer when it translates into open water further north.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Sterks on October 14, 2016, 04:01:21 PM
Is NOAA predicting a powerful Arctic Winter?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/glbT2me3Sea.html (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/glbT2me3Sea.html)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on October 14, 2016, 10:19:59 PM
Looks like we are back in the freezing business. Good thing. It was getting close to lay-off time.

What makes you think so? Any reliable source?

It doesn't look so to me, not according to earth.nullschool.net. Look at the air temps, we are consistently in the -1 - (-5)C range even near the north pole. Only some regions near the Canadian Archipelago drop below -10C. Wind patterns aren't particularly favourable for fast freezing either, not to mention the water temp anomalies all around the arctic circle. This is further confirmed by NSIDC - the Oct 13th extent is 5.466 mln km^2, only beaten by 2012 and 2007 and even these records might get broken if the current trend lasts another 3-4 days.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Stephen on October 15, 2016, 12:06:17 AM
I think from time to time it's well worth to have a look at global sea-ice extent as well :-)

The southern hemisphere decided to copy the 2016 Arctic spring in terms of sea ice area  ;)
Excellent: good call from magnamentis and backed up by tealight! GO TEAM!!

 ;)

I too think the global sea ice pattern is worth looking at and the Antarctic has certainly gone up and down. I think it was wayne that said science generally regards observation before explanation as the preferred timing of events.

 ;) ;)

I disagree with this.  I don't think it tells us much at all.  Back in about 2010 the likes of Monckton were claiming that Global extent and area numbers proved there was no problem with sea-ice melt.  Of course they were wrong.  The trend of the past few years for area and extent to decrease is probably El Nino related, as the El Nino wanes then Antarctic extent will probably increase again - in the short term anyway - it will increase for the same reasons that it was increasing in 2010 - stronger katabatic winds and freshening of the coastal sea-water due to melt from the ice-cap.

The Arctic and the Antarctic need to be studied separately.  Adding their numbers does not give a meaningful statistic.  I could add my height in inches to my weight in kilograms and multply by my shoe size, but the resulting number wouldn't tell you anything about me.

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 15, 2016, 12:16:00 AM
The Arctic and the Antarctic need to be studied separately.  Adding their numbers does not give a meaningful statistic.
Totally agree. And when one of them is in summer the other is in winter, with albedo having very different meanings.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on October 15, 2016, 12:37:05 AM
The Arctic and the Antarctic need to be studied separately.  Adding their numbers does not give a meaningful statistic.
Totally agree. And when one of them is in summer the other is in winter, with albedo having very different meanings.

the point was not to compare them but to look out for trends, new highs lows etc. means for extremes. as it happens we currently see a new low and not by only i tiny bit but by far and this IS interesting.

however if someone would post that the skies are blue i'm quite sure that there would be someone go contra from the dark side of the globe and tell that when he looks out the window can see only a black sky LOL
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 15, 2016, 12:46:17 AM
Looks like we are back in the freezing business. Good thing. It was getting close to lay-off time.

What makes you think so? Any reliable source?

It doesn't look so to me, not according to earth.nullschool.net. Look at the air temps, we are consistently in the -1 - (-5)C range even near the north pole. Only some regions near the Canadian Archipelago drop below -10C. Wind patterns aren't particularly favourable for fast freezing either, not to mention the water temp anomalies all around the arctic circle. This is further confirmed by NSIDC - the Oct 13th extent is 5.466 mln km^2, only beaten by 2012 and 2007 and even these records might get broken if the current trend lasts another 3-4 days.

For a few days extent was practically stalled and concentration was going down. Now, both are back on an upward trend. Though not moving anything close to the pace these should be, we have to take what we can get...

P.S. add to it all a century plus gain today per JAXA
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: werther on October 15, 2016, 08:20:39 AM
What we have already been discussing is extraordinary clear on this NCEP/NCAR daily composite:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2F1000Mb%2520Temp%2520ano%25201509%2520to%252012102016_zpsghyhm6t8.jpg&hash=e4025fbf1ab07462846a2083dfac86d8)

It underlines that the ‘refreeze’ during the first four weeks of the winter season has been anomalously weak. I think this is unprecedented. It concerns all of the Arctic, up to and in some regions even across the Polar Circle.

I suppose the rapid increase of the amount of greenhouse gases during the last year is now leading to an enhanced Polar Amplification. Because it is also occurring over the Antarctic. The mechanism behind this set-up would be well worthwhile a study.

If this phenomenon would continue, the ‘winter power’ weakness from last season could easily be repeated. It is obvious that the 2017 melt season could be the year of the feared ‘black swan’-event in that case.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Lord M Vader on October 15, 2016, 09:51:35 AM
To add to Werthers latest post wrt the extremely warm first half of October in the Arctic: Longyearbyen at Svalbard usually sees winter temps by the end of September but so far the average temp for October is about +3C. The normal avg for the first half of October is -4C. In addition, there have only been about three days significantly below zero.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on October 15, 2016, 11:55:17 AM
If this indicates significant heat being vented out that otherwise would have been trapped, well, so much for that adds to the winter power.
However, I am not convinced the timing of ocean sealing has such a strong effect on the final ocean heat content. This should be an interesting year to debunk, or not, that belief.
Is NOAA predicting a powerful Arctic Winter?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/glbT2me3Sea.html (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/glbT2me3Sea.html)


I would not trust cfs v2. predictions on the Arctic. However last winter LMV brought some attention to some CFS predictions showing colder ESS in Spring and it came about right.
An Arctic lacking thick MYI completely would really thank the combination of heat escape now (if that really makes a diff...) and coldness later.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on October 15, 2016, 04:42:00 PM
Quote
the ‘refreeze’ during the first four weeks of the winter season has been anomalously weak. I think this is unprecedented. It concerns all of the Arctic
Since the equinox, open water has been declining at about 1% per day with only 3 slightly positive days out of 25 according to the AMSR2 UHH ice edge product. The animation begins on Sept 20th and pauses on Oct 12th. It does seem anomalously slow; that could be a combination of warmer water (possibly mixed from some depth), persistent warmer weather, and back-reflection by clouds of infrared emitted by open water. Low angle solar input is inconsequential at this point.

Note that, as in past years, new ice so far is forming almost solely on the perimeter of the existing ice pack.  That's not because older ice is nucleating crystallization but rather, ipso facto, because it's colder there (because of the perimeter ice).
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on October 16, 2016, 12:54:52 AM
Look at the similarities in air temps above 80 degrees north coming into and going out of the melting seasons of the 3 years with the lowest sea ice extent (2007, 2012, 2016).  Higher than the mean temps going in and then an interesting increase from the mean starting around August 25th. 

Can't help but think that this consistent air temp increase around the 25th is directly related to a more negative AO due to lack of ice extent and possibly increased ocean temps.

From Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts - October 13th https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation (https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation) :

Quote
Recent research has shown that regional anomalies are important and the sea ice region most highly correlated with the winter AO is the Barents-Kara seas region where low Arctic sea ice favors a negative winter AO.

Also they forecast the following:

Quote
The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently strongly negative and is predicted to remain negative over the next two weeks.
Quote
The polar vortex both in the stratosphere and the troposphere look to remain relatively weak for the remainder of October, if this trend continues severe winter weather is likely for widespread portions of northern Eurasia, including Europe and East Asia, and the eastern United States (US).
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 16, 2016, 07:06:56 AM
So I took the DMI above 80N Temperature charts since 1990 and noticed they're not all of the same size. Did some color adjustment to those and layered them on top of each other. This generates quite a mess as can be seen in the picture below. Still you can find 2016 autumn in there, so I'll have to say this is quite exceptional ::) :P ??? :o . Color codes would be nice, I know, blues are the earliest and reds the latest running 10 or 5 hue points in between years almost round the spectrum. (I think there's a 80 point gap so there are no purples.) Really, this should be simultaneously be done in greyscale (darkest would be most recent) as the earlier years mess up the later ones here. I thought you might get some sort of rainbow effect at some point of the year but apparently this is not the case. Weather fluctuates too much in the high Arctic for that.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 16, 2016, 10:21:01 AM
Great visualization!
Interestingly enough, in winter spring and autumn The blues are below and the reds/greens on top, but in the summer it's the opposite, blues are on top, reds below.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: dnem on October 16, 2016, 02:59:40 PM
Are the DMI temp data available anywhere so you don't have to mess around with layering a bunch of images?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on October 16, 2016, 03:05:30 PM
A similar graph with percentiles, taken from the late Andrew Slater site:

http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/index_80_t2m.html (http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/index_80_t2m.html)

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 16, 2016, 03:43:32 PM
Are the DMI temp data available anywhere so you don't have to mess around with layering a bunch of images?

I don't know, anyway it would likely be a csv or some similar file so I'd have to make it yearly on a spreadsheet so this time it was "easier' to do this way.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on October 16, 2016, 06:57:11 PM
A similar graph with percentiles, taken from the late Andrew Slater site:

http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/index_80_t2m.html (http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/index_80_t2m.html)

this graphic is not accurate.  The smoothing of the data was not performed correctly.  the bands of probability do not change with historic day to day peaks and troughs but incorporate all of those variables into regional and temporal means.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 16, 2016, 07:25:36 PM
Great visualization!
Interestingly enough, in winter spring and autumn The blues are below and the reds/greens on top, but in the summer it's the opposite, blues are on top, reds below.


Yes, that'× interesting and could be because the ice has been less salty in the past, or some similar switch of the ocean state.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on October 16, 2016, 08:05:24 PM
Great visualization!
Interestingly enough, in winter spring and autumn The blues are below and the reds/greens on top, but in the summer it's the opposite, blues are on top, reds below.


Yes, that'× interesting and could be because the ice has been less salty in the past, or some similar switch of the ocean state.

A vast region of surface-melting multi year ice absorbs summer heat while maintaining temperatures near zero, fresh water melting temperature. (That is because after some years the salt has drained down from the surface of the ice).
A vast region of surface-melting first year ice absorbs summer heat while maintaining -1.8 C or so (salty water melting temperature).
It just so happens that the Arctic ocean is composed nowadays of less than 20% of MYI when it used to be more than 50%.
The temperature itself does not say much about how much heat is being absorbed or how much ice there is. There used to be a lot more ice that survived the summer, and paradoxically it was a bit warmer while it was (never completely) melting.
In winter I guess we can see global warming effect on winter temperatures.
The excess of temperatures of 2016 is indeed extraordinary, as pre-2008 and pre-2013. If 2017 brings epic melting, so much for giving too much relevance of heat being currently released, or conversely over-rating the importance of early refreeze (I know I repeat myself a lot but I want to remember it next year... sorry...).

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: charles_oil on October 16, 2016, 08:22:43 PM
Jai - when I looked before more closely clicking back on other years - I think the outer band represents an actual maximum or minimum rather than a % / standard deviation band.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on October 16, 2016, 10:04:10 PM
It's been suggested that refreezing has been anomalously slow this fall. The figures below compare the loss of open water between the Sept 20th equinox and Oct 15th for the years 2012-2015 according to UH AMSR2 determination of sea ice edge. The key year 2012 is not available for October for AMSR2 but NSIDC happened to have a rough version of Oct 15th on display which after considerable tweaking could be added to complete the AMSR2 pair for that year.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2012/10/Figure1.png (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2012/10/Figure1.png)

The table shows the loss of open water for each of these years relative to 2016. Refreezing is considerably delayed compared to all years except 2014 which was very similar. Although the refreezing takes place on the central ice pack periphery in all years,  the distribution of new ice formed over the 25 days is quite different with respect to the pole and shores.

2016   100%
2015   154%
2014   100%
2013   169%
2012   138%
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 16, 2016, 11:24:20 PM
Thanks SIS great explanation for the summer "anomaly".
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: plinius on October 17, 2016, 02:01:38 AM
Re the declining arctic summer 2-m temperatures:

I think Sea-Icesailor has raised very good points about the summer temperature issue, but I am not entirely convinced, yet. Perhaps we should discuss this more in-depth.

1.) Is this really measured, or is this purely a re-analysis/model thing?

2.) Heat-exchange:
How does heat-exchange over ice compare to heat-exchange over water? Ice has a rather smooth surface, and how about the firn layer? We all know winter Foehn, where you can get rather high temperatures over snow in the mountains. 2 Factors at play here: a.) Sublimation/melt vs. evaporation (and if I remember correctly, evaporation is far more effective) and b) rough water surface with waves affecting the ground layer

3) Weather? Increase of summer storms may play a role here?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: plinius on October 17, 2016, 02:05:50 AM
If this indicates significant heat being vented out that otherwise would have been trapped, well, so much for that adds to the winter power.
However, I am not convinced the timing of ocean sealing has such a strong effect on the final ocean heat content. This should be an interesting year...

I fully agree with not being convinced. Not even sure, if an open ocean in winter loses really more heat than an ice surface? Ocean is blanketed with cold clouds, ice surface might radiate more heat directly. Who wins on a large surface? (a small pond surrounded by land will act differently of course).
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 17, 2016, 03:45:14 AM
Quote
1.) Is this really measured, or is this purely a re-analysis/model thing?

I just assumed they'd coupled the buoy/ship measurements with some modelling. Then there are the surface measurements from satellites that are not measuring the 2-meter temperature that could be somehow converted to 2m T's but that can't usually be done very accurately, afaik. Likely there's plenty of reanalysis involved at least for the earlier years, though there have been regular visits to high arctic by couple of nations for quite a while.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Lord M Vader on October 17, 2016, 08:57:43 AM
While far away, ECMWF 00z run has a bombcyclone in Berings for October 26 bombing out at 924 hpa(!) Taste that, 924 hpa if it comes true! Record low for the month of October in that area or have there been any lower SLPs there?

As always, operatonal runs at Day 9 is volatile but interesting anyway for all of us Arctic weather geeks 8)

In additon, the GBH seems to come to life about the same time putting a low at 975-980 hpa at the Russian coast and a 1035-1040 hpa blocking high at northern Greenland. --> old ice will be flashed out!

//LMV
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: DavidR on October 17, 2016, 12:50:54 PM
ClimateReanalyzer has the average temperature in the Arctic climbing to 5dC above average within a week.

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/#ARC-LEA (http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/#ARC-LEA)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on October 17, 2016, 05:21:25 PM
Nice initiative on DMI 80ºN trends by Pmt111500 the other day in #242. Definitely worthwhile getting effective displays of season trends, though this one is a nuisance because DMI used 5-6 different graph sizes during just 1990-2016, meaning color dithering of the red line and the 365 days never getting 365 one pixel columns, crazymaking !%?.

The animation below shows this with (a bit too much) thickening of the lines, chasing Pmt's proposed rainbow. Here the lines were tiled into a grayscale display so a consistent spectral gradient could be applied.

The second image shows the effect of averaging the 29 layers. This amounts to setting the transparency of the layers to 1, .5, 33, .25, .20 etc from bottom to top, for which there is a plug-in available for gimp or a simple command line for imagemagick. The reds got washed out but a pronounced fall warming trend is evident with respect to DMI's 1958 to 2002 climatic mean (magenta curve).

Averaging a stack of co-registered images to take out noise is a core technique in astrophysics. Here on AMSR2 it has the effect of smoothing out atmospheric and surface artifacts, as well as ice pack motion, affecting microwave imagery.

https://github.com/windytan/gimp-average-layers  gimp (Oona Räisänen)
convert -average *.png output.png  ImageMagick (unknown)

October 2016 seems without precedent as others note above.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on October 17, 2016, 11:34:30 PM
thanks A-Team that was masterful.

Clearly the daily temp anoms are not too out of sequence but the overall (previous 25 day) or (soon) monthly is well beyond statistical norms. (estimate: >2 std. dev)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 18, 2016, 04:03:05 AM
Thanks A-team for better imaging than mine, here's a screencapture of the last frame and the about the best rainbow I could easily make out of this data  :P . The day might be 68 or even 70 but anyway, there are a couple of years conflicting with a hypothetical 'always warmer'-place and date.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: DavidR on October 18, 2016, 12:22:22 PM
 In Memoriam :'(

As expected, this year Global C02 measurements failed to drop below 400 ppm for the first time in the history of the homo sapiens.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html)

It will not pass below this level again in our lifetimes.


Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on October 18, 2016, 03:58:10 PM
This DMI data really needs to be replotted from the numbers, above all to 365 pixel width. For another, it might make more sense to do as anomaly, in units of standard deviations. For that, their 'climate curve' (full ERA40 data set from 1958 to 2002) seems reasonably enough unbiased.

(Where I live, the govt weather agency diabolically downplays global warming by taking climate as 1995-2015, though even with that background we're getting clobbered.)

Couple of generally useful technical tricks on rescuing the original presentation:

Rescaling: first select the bounding box (which is a clean one-pixel black), invert selection and fill with any color, deselect and reselect interior with contiguous color picker, invert selection and delete. The file header now gives the pixel dimensions of the graph itself, eg 520 x 333, which are the rescaling parameters. DMI's graphs fall into 5-6 classes; length and width rescaling have to be decoupled -- a rather unusual incompetency. Pick one of the larger classes and bring everything to its scales. The whole thing would benefit from a larger scale to bring out trends in the summer and shoulder seasons.

Cleaning the palette: the red data line is a mess because of scale dithers and overlays. The green mean and blue 0ºC lines should always be under the data, not over it. Those need to be pulled out for a frame of their own and whited out on all the yearly data. Tile up all the frames into a single image. Select white, invert, replace the remaining selection (the reds) with a single dark gray.

Spectral coloring: This is a nightmare because equal spacing along the color wheel does not result in equal perceptual scaling or eye-distinguishable colors. Too many greens; magenta looks too warm. On a blank layer above the data layer, lay down a CCW gradient from red into purple. Select the black in the data layer, invert selection, delete in the spectral layer. Slice back into individual years; these are now colored in spectral sequence with transparency elsewhere (for stacking).

Thickening the data lines: The lines are very thin in the original and not continuous so no fix will really work. One option here is select the black in the unsliced data layer and apply 'grow selection' (in gimp). Here one pixel works better than two. More interesting: apply a gaussian blur of low radius (say 5 pixels, vertical direction only) to represent error in the reanalysis (surely documented somewhere). This thickens the data lines but with thickening falling off with y coord distance. Upon dropping the spectral layer on the blurred gray data layer, the color saturation weakens off the original reported value.

Overall it is a pity that for all the work that's gone into amassing this data (365 days x 59 years), that the follow-up presentation and analysis are so lame. This is no reflection on DMI or Denmark because here in the US we have many more clueless people on a per capita basis.

Forum folks have the capacity to fix both the statistical analysis and the graphical display. Whether "80ºN" makes sense to begin with, whether the data properly get at that, what it has to do with Arctic ice melt, whether a dramatic, accurate and engaging graphic would emerge that would tip public opinion -- those are open questions.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: diablobanquisa on October 18, 2016, 07:41:09 PM
After the pause during the melt season, Cryosat is working again:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimages.meteociel.fr%2Fim%2F6957%2Fthk_28_uis8.png&hash=b79ff5b04eefae552aff430a916e9424)

http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html (http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html)

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on October 18, 2016, 09:48:46 PM
In Memoriam :'(

As expected, this year Global C02 measurements failed to drop below 400 ppm for the first time in the history of the homo sapiens.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html)

It will not pass below this level again in our lifetimes.

Hurricane Madeline may have been behind an unexpected dip in carbon dioxide concentrations measured at Mauna Loa. The reading reported on Tuesday Aug 30th 2016 was 399.86 ppm.  :o

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2016/08/31/brief-reprieve-from-400-ppm-era-may-be-thanks-to-a-hurricane/ (https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2016/08/31/brief-reprieve-from-400-ppm-era-may-be-thanks-to-a-hurricane/)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on October 18, 2016, 10:48:27 PM
In Memoriam :'(

As expected, this year Global C02 measurements failed to drop below 400 ppm for the first time in the history of the homo sapiens.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html)

It will not pass below this level again in our lifetimes.

Hurricane Madeline may have been behind an unexpected dip in carbon dioxide concentrations measured at Mauna Loa. The reading reported on Tuesday Aug 30th 2016 was 399.86 ppm.  :o

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2016/08/31/brief-reprieve-from-400-ppm-era-may-be-thanks-to-a-hurricane/ (https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2016/08/31/brief-reprieve-from-400-ppm-era-may-be-thanks-to-a-hurricane/)

It's quite possible to achieve brief local dips here and there but that doesn't change the fact that we  have broken 400ppm for good. CO2 went from rising less than 1ppm/year to over 2ppm in the last 50-60 years, but the last 2 years were really bad: ~3.05 and 3.5 respectively. One of the most important stats is going exponential. I won't be surprised if we see a 5ppm+ jump next year. Add wildfires to the list of accelerators - https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/10/161012141702.htm (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/10/161012141702.htm) and things will look pretty grim.

Getting [somewhat] back on topic, I'm surprised how we are mostly looking at ice extent and area as stats to show melting/freezing but paying very little attention to volume changes and ice age.

Quote
Age is another indicator of the state of sea ice because older ice is generally thicker ice (Tschudi et al., 2016). As mentioned in previous posts, there has been an overall decline in ice age, particularly the oldest ice types—ice that has been in the Arctic for more than four years. Near-real-time updates (which are preliminary) indicate that at this year’s minimum, only 106,000 square kilometers (41,000 square miles) of 4+ year old ice remained, or 3.1 percent of the total ice extent. This is in stark contrast to the mid-1980s when over 2 million square kilometers (33 percent, or 772,000 square miles) of the summer minimum extent was composed of old ice that had survived at least four summer melt seasons.

If I understand this piece of information correctly, we have lost ~95% of 4+ year old ice in about 30 years?? Can someone do the math of the latent heat of fusion in this case?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Blizzard92 on October 18, 2016, 11:23:26 PM
Quite impressive warmth (Oct, to-date)... (from https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/788409176116502528 (https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/788409176116502528))
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 19, 2016, 12:18:59 AM
Getting [somewhat] back on topic, I'm surprised how we are mostly looking at ice extent and area as stats to show melting/freezing but paying very little attention to volume changes and ice age.
Check out the thread about PIOMAS volume which deals with such.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.1100.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.1100.html)

And I saw this great graph somewhere around the forum dealing with ice age distribution over time.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Cate on October 19, 2016, 02:23:31 AM
The Scribbler posted on the refreeze and got tweeted almost immediately by Bill McKibben.

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/10/18/arctic-sea-ice-falls-into-record-low-ranges-again/
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 19, 2016, 04:16:04 AM
>A-Team< yeah the sudden swings in temperatures makes the DMIabove80N graphs almost unreadable during these. I guess technically you could take the length of the lines on such situations (on these pixels of x-axis) as "the whole error margin", still one would need to fix the issues of cuts in the graph when the data graph crosses 273.15K (or melt line) or the ERA40 analysis line. This requires interpretation and a lot of handwork. At least my software shows some clues as to how the graph should be joined back together again, but not in every occasion.

Attempted to do 1990-95 as accurately as I could, enlarging the field to 730px, and fixing the cuts in line with 2px brush in order to not be too accurate  :P ::) ;D (there is such a thing, folks)  , took about 40 minutes, still there are places where it's difficult to say where the true daily value is (the "error bar" can be up to 5K), so yes, numbers would be nice.

Thanks for the tips in editing the graphs, I just stacked them with the 'darken' mode which apparently has the effect of 'greenifying' the colors in this sort of images in the program I use. The image below has been made similarly so the lines for different years get messed up when more than two of them cross at the same point.

Aw, this is the freezing season thread, maybe this needs a new thread?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on October 19, 2016, 01:34:52 PM
These images are taken from: http://images.remss.com/msu/msu_time_series.html (http://images.remss.com/msu/msu_time_series.html)

They show the temperature time series for the North Polar region. The first one shows the temperature anomaly increase in the lower troposphere. The second one shows the temperature anomaly decrease in the upper troposphere over the same region.

It is interesting to me how the upper atmosphere is cooling while the lower atmosphere is warming. I can't help to blame this on greenhouse gasses, but there may be a better explanation. Regardless of the reason, cooling in the upper troposphere means that heat is not being transferred efficiently out into space. I think this is partly to blame for the temperatures we are seeing. The third and fourth images  show the recent data of the same regions.

Pmt111500: Nice images, thank you.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: ritter on October 19, 2016, 06:31:21 PM
The Scribbler posted on the refreeze and got tweeted almost immediately by Bill McKibben.

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/10/18/arctic-sea-ice-falls-into-record-low-ranges-again/

Totally off topic, but I got to see Bill McKibben speak last night at Sonoma State University.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: JimboOmega on October 19, 2016, 06:40:13 PM
These images are taken from: http://images.remss.com/msu/msu_time_series.html (http://images.remss.com/msu/msu_time_series.html)

They show the temperature time series for the North Polar region. The first one shows the temperature anomaly increase in the lower troposphere. The second one shows the temperature anomaly decrease in the upper troposphere over the same region.

It is interesting to me how the upper atmosphere is cooling while the lower atmosphere is warming. I can't help to blame this on greenhouse gasses, but there may be a better explanation. Regardless of the reason, cooling in the upper troposphere means that heat is not being transferred efficiently out into space. I think this is partly to blame for the temperatures we are seeing. The third and fourth images  show the recent data of the same regions.

Pmt111500: Nice images, thank you.

Interesting. I know the exceptionally cold upper atmosphere was a big factor in why Nicole was able to be a hurricane as far north as it got (it's really the heat difference between lower and upper that make hurricanes thermodynamically possible).

Personally and more on topic, all season up through the minimum there was shouting about how the ice is in a bad state, and how the surrounding seas are so warm, and so on; I feel like right now, we're seeing that surrounding heat blocking the freeze up... and in particular slowing the vertical growth of the center of the pack.

It'll be interesting to see where we end up next spring. Maybe this is just a blip in the scheme of things, and once the extra heat is radiated we'll be back close to normal.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 19, 2016, 08:00:33 PM
The NSIDC 5 day average Arctic sea ice extent is once again less than on the same day of 2012:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/10/nsidc-and-cryosat-2-agreed-upon-declining-arctic-sea-ice/ (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/10/nsidc-and-cryosat-2-agreed-upon-declining-arctic-sea-ice/)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on October 19, 2016, 09:47:34 PM
gap is growing, even though interest in global sea-ice seems to be limited for reasons that evade me i think this is an outstanding, first and record graph for global sea-ice.

didn't find a thread or a sub-forum where this fits better, hence i thought this is one of the more actual threads where this can be posted from time to time for those who consider us living on one globe and not limited to hemispheres :-) ;)

BTW all arguments against the importance of global sea-ice development would apply to global warming (climate change) as well, i refer to the argument that this is useless because it's winter in one hemisphere while it's summer in the other. this and any other argument against paying attention to global sea-ice applies to temperatures and other weather patterns and phenomenons as well :-)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Ninebelowzero on October 19, 2016, 10:33:04 PM
Well give it another 10 days and we'll know if the patient is flatlining.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 19, 2016, 10:43:45 PM
gap is growing, even though interest in global sea-ice seems to be limited for reasons that evade me i think this is an outstanding, first and record graph for global sea-ice.

didn't find a thread or a sub-forum where this fits better, hence i thought this is one of the more actual threads where this can be posted from time to time for those who consider us living on one globe and not limited to hemispheres :-) ;)

BTW all arguments against the importance of global sea-ice development would apply to global warming (climate change) as well, i refer to the argument that this is useless because it's winter in one hemisphere while it's summer in the other. this and any other argument against paying attention to global sea-ice applies to temperatures and other weather patterns and phenomenons as well :-)

Thank you. That is very impressive. Somebody is always going to complain, so don't even worry about that. A lot more of us want to be informed. And it was different seasons per hemisphere in the past years on the chart, which makes it apples for apples.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tealight on October 20, 2016, 12:13:15 AM
For all who are interested in daily updated maps and sea ice area values, I created a new section on my website which updates everything automatically via scripts at 18:00 GMT. At least it does it when my computer is on. On some days it might be a few hours later depending on when I get home  ;)

Over the next few days/weeks I will add graphs and make further improvements, but daily updates should not be affected.

Link
https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/daily-data
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on October 20, 2016, 12:32:07 AM
gap is growing, even though interest in global sea-ice seems to be limited for reasons that evade me i think this is an outstanding, first and record graph for global sea-ice.

didn't find a thread or a sub-forum where this fits better, hence i thought this is one of the more actual threads where this can be posted from time to time for those who consider us living on one globe and not limited to hemispheres :-) ;)

BTW all arguments against the importance of global sea-ice development would apply to global warming (climate change) as well, i refer to the argument that this is useless because it's winter in one hemisphere while it's summer in the other. this and any other argument against paying attention to global sea-ice applies to temperatures and other weather patterns and phenomenons as well :-)
Yeah that's great, thank you, you bet there are other threads better for this in this excellent forum, but it is nice to get pontifical reminders on the shape and spin of the world once in a while so keep it here, appreciated it.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 20, 2016, 05:26:04 AM
Looks like JAXA SIE finally broke 6M km2 today. NSIDC is following close behind...
For what it's worth.

A couple little cool spots are forming off Greenland and CAA. You can see on the Anomaly map.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 20, 2016, 06:42:37 AM
gap is growing, even though interest in global sea-ice seems to be limited for reasons that evade me i think this is an outstanding, first and record graph for global sea-ice.

The closest comparison in the shape of the curve looks to be 2011 (after 2010-11 Modoki)  and we know what happened after that. Thanks for the graph.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Lord M Vader on October 20, 2016, 08:48:26 AM
Highly interesting! ECMWF 00z run has a bombcyclone in the Chukchi Sea at +168h. Berings Sea could see a SLP at 936 hpa in +144h. The cyclone will extend into the CAB and ESS.

As there is open, and very warm waters, in these regions the question should be what impact such a strong cyclone will have on the refreezing?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: budmantis on October 20, 2016, 12:27:23 PM
Looks like the temperature is finally dropping.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 20, 2016, 05:11:47 PM
Looks like the temperature is finally dropping.
"Dropping" being a relative description.

I've been browsing the navy HYCOM thickness model nowcasts going back and forth across the last 4 years, looking at October runs.

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arc_list_arcticictn.html#2014

While we are generally suspicious of these model's accuracy in real time, as they are based on consistent inputs, I think they can give us reasonable references regarding the qualitative condition of the pack over time.  I'm struck by thickness the same date last year compared to today; it sees broad stretches of the arctic as 25-50CM thinner than last year.

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2016101918_2016102000_046_arcticictn.001.gif

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2015101918_2015102000_041_arcticictn.001.gif
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on October 21, 2016, 04:12:01 AM
Quote
as these models are based on consistent inputs, can give us consistent comparisons. struck by thickness the same date last year compared to today -- broad stretches of the arctic as 25-50CM thinner than last year.
Agree. Provided there is not systemic bias, differencing removes absolute error when common to both. (However the error may be worse at the lowest thicknesses.) The blue thickness band is much larger in the 2016 (in a ratio of 4.9:1) than in 2015 and to a considerable extent, it comes at the expense of the (thicker) greens.

Here the palette is a hue progression in HSV color space (except for its extremities where hue is fixed over a short grayscale ramp). The gimp color picker has optional H, S, and V modes though by default it uses RGB composite. Pixels in polar stereographic differ from area-on-the-globe only by a few percent over the latitude range of the Arctic Ocean so pixel counting is a quite accurate proxy.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 21, 2016, 09:55:16 AM
i don't know how many SDs above normal this is but i think it may be up to +3

it seems way too coincidental to ignore at this point... i think it is becoming obvious that as we hit warmer thresholds with an increasingly ice-free Arctic, we are seeing fall albedo feedback spiral out of control as snowfall is now increasing to very above normal levels.

to put in other words, our 10/19 NHEM snow mass is about what the avg yr in the 90s/00s saw ~11/5!

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fglobalcryospherewatch.org%2Fstate_of_cryo%2Fsnow%2Ffmi_swe_tracker.jpg&hash=7d01448218c9fe1555d12dad667406c0)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: abbottisgone on October 21, 2016, 11:18:15 AM
magnamentis,

 That is a highly interesting visual aid  :o :o :o :o :o
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: abbottisgone on October 21, 2016, 11:19:13 AM
bbr,

 so is that  :'( :'(
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Sterks on October 21, 2016, 01:09:22 PM
Highly interesting! ECMWF 00z run has a bombcyclone in the Chukchi Sea at +168h. Berings Sea could see a SLP at 936 hpa in +144h. The cyclone will extend into the CAB and ESS.

As there is open, and very warm waters, in these regions the question should be what impact such a strong cyclone will have on the refreezing?

The storm has intensified in the new forecast, and passes the Bering Sea to the Arctic Ocean. Note that the wind fetch coincides with the area of the open ocean. Based on fundamental phenomena of the ocean, we would expect surface mixing as a result of waves and swells and more memorable Ekman pumping. The refreezing may be further delayed momentarily, as there is hot and salty water that came from the Bering sea.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on October 21, 2016, 04:44:24 PM
Quote
refreezing may be further delayed momentarily
Or indefinitely in the case of the Barents Sea which currently is showing as much as a 10.0ºC sea surface temperature anomaly.

The bottom animation shows the relationship between sea surface temperature, temperature anomaly, sea ice concentration, and bathymetry for the 19th of October, 2016.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on October 21, 2016, 11:39:42 PM
Looks like we are back in the freezing business. Good thing. It was getting close to lay-off time.

What makes you think so? Any reliable source?

It doesn't look so to me, not according to earth.nullschool.net. Look at the air temps, we are consistently in the -1 - (-5)C range even near the north pole. Only some regions near the Canadian Archipelago drop below -10C. Wind patterns aren't particularly favourable for fast freezing either, not to mention the water temp anomalies all around the arctic circle. This is further confirmed by NSIDC - the Oct 13th extent is 5.466 mln km^2, only beaten by 2012 and 2007 and even these records might get broken if the current trend lasts another 3-4 days.

And here we are few days later, the extent is currently ~200k below 2012 and only ~60k above 2007 for Oct 20th. With the current trend we will reach record low within the next 36 hours.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 22, 2016, 12:40:34 AM
I was not evaluating the overall state of the Arctic or human affairs as a whole, for that matter, but only the fact that extent numbers are no longer stalled, at least for now.
NSIDC SIE
2016,    10,  09,      5.386,     
2016,    10,  10,      5.425,     
2016,    10,  11,      5.446,     
2016,    10,  12,      5.515,     
2016,    10,  13,      5.554,     
2016,    10,  14,      5.598,     
2016,    10,  15,      5.736,     
2016,    10,  16,      5.857,     
2016,    10,  17,      5.880,     
2016,    10,  18,      5.931,     
2016,    10,  19,      6.105,     
2016,    10,  20,      6.310
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 22, 2016, 03:13:34 AM
Link to video by Andy Lee Robinson, originally posted by Neven on the Blog. Apologies if I am cross threading. not sure if its been posted already somewhere.

This really shows how things have went down in the Arctic over time, using volume as a gauge.

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NP0L1PG9ag (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NP0L1PG9ag)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: be cause on October 22, 2016, 03:13:52 PM
The next week looks like being dramatic across the Arctic , LMV's long predicted cyclonic monster is now predicted across the models ... pouring warmth into the Pacific side while a thrust of extra warm air pushes in from the Atlantic . Run an 850 anomaly forecast to see the warmth meet across the Arctic ..
Whither the weather is as dramatic  as forecast ; it certainly looks like the 'new' Arctic autumn/fall season is not yet over .
I would love those with a longer eye on all things Arctic to discuss the 'unusualness' of this event . This could be a week that really matters to the Arctic .... bc.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Lord M Vader on October 22, 2016, 03:51:13 PM
Brian Brettschneider has this interesting tweet. Unfortunely, it doesn't tell us if these stations from World Climate Service are just located in Alaska or around the whole Arctic.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvQeFLbVUAEFX4z.jpg:large)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: mhampton on October 22, 2016, 04:34:20 PM
That little thumbnail map in the lower right seems to indicate its all around the Arctic; looks like about 19 stations.

Brian Brettschneider has this interesting tweet. Unfortunely, it doesn't tell us if these stations from World Climate Service are just located in Alaska or around the whole Arctic.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvQeFLbVUAEFX4z.jpg:large)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on October 22, 2016, 04:54:21 PM
Meanwhile, according to NSIDC, SIE is just 30k km^2 from record low (2007) and 300k below 2012 for Oct 21st.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Lord M Vader on October 22, 2016, 06:48:55 PM
And on the other pole, Antarctica is 2nd lowest behind 1986 for the date....
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tealight on October 23, 2016, 01:02:55 AM
Meanwhile, according to NSIDC, SIE is just 30k km^2 from record low (2007) and 300k below 2012 for Oct 21st.
And on the other pole, Antarctica is 2nd lowest behind 1986 for the date....

If you look at sea ice area we are currently lowest at both poles.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on October 23, 2016, 05:41:27 AM
I was not evaluating the overall state of the Arctic or human affairs as a whole, for that matter, but only the fact that extent numbers are no longer stalled, at least for now.
NSIDC SIE
2016,    10,  09,      5.386,     
2016,    10,  10,      5.425,     
2016,    10,  11,      5.446,     
2016,    10,  12,      5.515,     
2016,    10,  13,      5.554,     
2016,    10,  14,      5.598,     
2016,    10,  15,      5.736,     
2016,    10,  16,      5.857,     
2016,    10,  17,      5.880,     
2016,    10,  18,      5.931,     
2016,    10,  19,      6.105,     
2016,    10,  20,      6.310

10-21-16: 6.466 million km2. 1 million km2 of increased ice extent in 10 days. Still slower than previous years, but hopefully picking up steam.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on October 23, 2016, 05:46:26 AM
That little thumbnail map in the lower right seems to indicate its all around the Arctic; looks like about 19 stations.

Brian Brettschneider has this interesting tweet. Unfortunely, it doesn't tell us if these stations from World Climate Service are just located in Alaska or around the whole Arctic.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvQeFLbVUAEFX4z.jpg:large)

Perhaps the heat is caused by the beneficial heat venting JD Allen says is the result of more open water later in the season? Possibly a good thing as heat escapes from the ocean?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on October 23, 2016, 10:34:22 AM
That little thumbnail map in the lower right seems to indicate its all around the Arctic; looks like about 19 stations.

Brian Brettschneider has this interesting tweet. Unfortunely, it doesn't tell us if these stations from World Climate Service are just located in Alaska or around the whole Arctic.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvQeFLbVUAEFX4z.jpg:large)

Perhaps the heat is caused by the beneficial heat venting JD Allen says is the result of more open water later in the season? Possibly a good thing as heat escapes from the ocean?
A good thing, the heat that, to start with, is there due to AGW, is being vented out. How relevant for next melting season? We'll see.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: meddoc on October 23, 2016, 02:43:05 PM
That Arctic Temps Graph resembles pretty much the global trend.
So- again- what's going on in the Arctic is progressing globally- probably with some inertia.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on October 23, 2016, 05:54:34 PM
That's it, SIE is now lowest on record for Oct 22nd - 6,279 mln km^2
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on October 23, 2016, 10:08:20 PM
This interesting model forecast (4-days) of West Pacific extratropical cyclone moving above the jet stream and combining with a second low pressure vortex to move into the arctic circle.  This is another clear example of how midlatitude moisture (and heat) is finding it much easier to translate into the polar cell.  Also documented in "changes in mid-latitude hydrology" thread.

here: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,784.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,784.0.html)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Geoff on October 24, 2016, 05:41:40 AM
Brian Brettschneider has this interesting tweet. Unfortunely, it doesn't tell us if these stations from World Climate Service are just located in Alaska or around the whole Arctic.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvQeFLbVUAEFX4z.jpg:large)

What to expect in the future?

http://www.nims.go.jp/water/temp_water.html (http://www.nims.go.jp/water/temp_water.html)
Temperature of ice water in a glass
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nims.go.jp%2Fwater%2Fimages%2Fice_water.jpg&hash=5cc8baa460cae01291b8cc814efd20ad)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nims.go.jp%2Fwater%2Fimages%2Ft_t_curve1.jpg&hash=88644ca89b38830708025a1f26a48c19)

It would be cool if there were really clear practical descriptive experiments based around this principle to describe to people what happens when the arctic melts completely.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 24, 2016, 08:41:15 AM

What to expect in the future?

http://www.nims.go.jp/water/temp_water.html (http://www.nims.go.jp/water/temp_water.html)
Temperature of ice water in a glass
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nims.go.jp%2Fwater%2Fimages%2Fice_water.jpg&hash=5cc8baa460cae01291b8cc814efd20ad)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nims.go.jp%2Fwater%2Fimages%2Ft_t_curve1.jpg&hash=88644ca89b38830708025a1f26a48c19)

It would be cool if there were really clear practical descriptive experiments based around this principle to describe to people what happens when the arctic melts completely.

Nice to see that sort of an image again. Thanks.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Phil. on October 24, 2016, 03:19:41 PM

What to expect in the future?

http://www.nims.go.jp/water/temp_water.html (http://www.nims.go.jp/water/temp_water.html)
Temperature of ice water in a glass
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nims.go.jp%2Fwater%2Fimages%2Fice_water.jpg&hash=5cc8baa460cae01291b8cc814efd20ad)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nims.go.jp%2Fwater%2Fimages%2Ft_t_curve1.jpg&hash=88644ca89b38830708025a1f26a48c19)

It would be cool if there were really clear practical descriptive experiments based around this principle to describe to people what happens when the arctic melts completely.

Nice to see that sort of an image again. Thanks.

Trouble is this is characteristic of freshwater not seawater, you'd see something quite different with saltwater.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: dnem on October 24, 2016, 03:30:54 PM
Different how?  Would the basic physics differ?  Wouldn't the temperature of the water begin to increase much more quickly after all the ice had changed phase to water?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: wili on October 24, 2016, 03:57:57 PM
I would say an even bigger difference is that this is an ocean rather than a cup. But I think the basic point still holds. Once all the ice is gone, the great amount of energy necessary for phase shift from ice to water is now available to heat the whole water column, as long as there is a heat source.

But when winter comes, the surface will still cool and be colder than the subsurface temperatures (unlike what happens in most non-polar ocean waters where the thermocline generally has warmest waters at the surface, iirc).

Also of concern is what happens to the water vapor that an icefree ocean can generate, since water vapor is itself a powerful ghg. I think the effects of increased water vapor in the Arctic can already be seen in the anomalously warm conditions we see up there even 35 some days since the sun set up there.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: JMP on October 24, 2016, 04:03:15 PM
Generally speaking in the Arctic Ocean there is stratification based on salinity (a halocline) rather than temperature (a thermocline)  but my (albeit limited) understanding is that this only enhances the temperature inversion.   And, it's the very existence of this temperature inversion that allows us to even have the Sea Ice.  So I don't get the "trouble is" comment at all.   
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: JMP on October 24, 2016, 04:19:47 PM
I would say an even bigger difference is that this is an ocean rather than a cup. But I think the basic point still holds. Once all the ice is gone, the great amount of energy necessary for phase shift from ice to water is now available to heat the whole water column, as long as there is a heat source.

My understanding is that all the heat necessary to melt the ice is already available in the water column  but kept at depth due to salinity and so I'm thinking this means that the halocline stratification prevents the water column from absorbing and storing energy (at least in a straight forward way)? 


Also of concern is what happens to the water vapor that an icefree ocean can generate, since water vapor is itself a powerful ghg. I think the effects of increased water vapor in the Arctic can already be seen in the anomalously warm conditions we see up there even 35 some days since the sun set up there.
Doesn't the water vapor have to be at the right level in the atmosphere though?
 

 
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on October 24, 2016, 05:17:20 PM
The gap between 2016 and 2007/2012 is slowly growing, SIE is now 70k below 2007 and 350k below 2012 for Oct 23rd.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: wili on October 24, 2016, 05:53:35 PM
Good point about salinity. Fresh water rivers will continue to flow into the Arctic Ocean, continuing to provide it with a relatively fresh water 'lens.'

As to water vapor, its behavior as a ghg does not depend on altitude, but when it takes the form of clouds, then the effects do get more complicated and altitude is a crucial factor in that, as I understand it.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 24, 2016, 09:28:04 PM

<snip>
Temperature of ice water in a glass
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nims.go.jp%2Fwater%2Fimages%2Fice_water.jpg&hash=5cc8baa460cae01291b8cc814efd20ad)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nims.go.jp%2Fwater%2Fimages%2Ft_t_curve1.jpg&hash=88644ca89b38830708025a1f26a48c19)

It would be cool if there were really clear practical descriptive experiments based around this principle to describe to people what happens when the arctic melts completely.

Nice to see that sort of an image again. Thanks.

Trouble is this is characteristic of freshwater not seawater, you'd see something quite different with saltwater.
Not really; the temperature thresholds will change, but the curve is governed by the energy taken up by the phase change, not salinity.  The net energetic effect on the system and sensible heat will still be the same.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on October 24, 2016, 11:15:32 PM
The Siberia/Alaska, 949 hPa - 1030 hPa dipole established predicted for tomorrow morning (GFS today 12Z prediction for Tue 06Z), injecting atmospheric and oceanic heat into the Arctic.
The DMI temp maps shows BIG SST temperature anomalies at both sides of the Bering strait; for the last 30 days the flow of water through the strait has been northward and the current winds will keep the flow going strong in that direction.
There may be another interesting effect due to the strong winds pulling surface water away from the Alaskan Arctic coast and forcing upwelling of saltier warmer water, but not sure if that is important, depending if the winds do persist.
https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortsss_nowcast_anim30d.gif
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 24, 2016, 11:42:50 PM
I have heard some doubts 'round and about, as to whether all the peripherals will be covered with ice at the end of this season. I personally believe that if these are covered it will be by weak, thin short lived ice. Especially so in the Barents,Kara, Laptev, and East Siberian Seas. It will be a while yet before these can even start to freeze over.
ESS might be the exception out of those.


...............

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 25, 2016, 02:57:56 AM
I have heard some doubts 'round and about, as to whether all the peripherals will be covered with ice at the end of this season. I personally believe that if these are covered it will be by weak, thin short lived ice. Especially so in the Barents,Kara, Laptev, and East Siberian Seas. It will be a while yet before these can even start to freeze over.
ESS might be the exception out of those.

Last year IIRC  the edges of Beaufort and southern CAA were still open, as was most of the eastern ESS.  The Laptev had already frozen up to the eastern Kara.

By the time we get to late November, the western Kara was still mostly open, along with the Chukchi and the Barents. Everything else had pretty well frozen up, in spite of the earlier heat.

I'm confident the pattern will be much the same this year, with the peripherals getting pretty much covered over by the first of December.  What's not so sure to me is how much the ice will thicken and strengthen between the winter solstice and spring equinox.

The pattern I'd watch for would be strong generally persistent high pressure systems setting up over (1) northern Greenland/NE CAA and (2) in Siberia north and west of the Sea of Okhotsk.

Combine those with the "cyclone cannons" along the relevant eastern continental seaboards, and I think we'll have a recipe for driving cold arctic air out of the CAB into central Siberia and to a lesser degree, down the Canadian Shield and across Quebec in NAM, with strong inputs of heat and moisture to be introduced across the Bering/Chukchi and NE Barents.

The Greenland high will be important and dangerous from the standpoint that it may drive considerable surviving older ice out through the Fram, or into our still active Atlantic front "Killing zone" for the ice.  I think we will see ice driven more persistently towards the Barents, even exceeding the coverage we saw last year, but I expect it will be ephemeral, and will draw back whenever there isn't enough wind to drive ice south to replace that which will rapidly melt out.

I will be interested to see if my hypothesis plays out.

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Adam Ash on October 25, 2016, 04:24:20 AM
With the on-going export of ice via Fram and CAA the volume exported from the north must, I guess, be replaced with a similar volume of water imported from the south.  Are there any indications of higher-than-usual northbound currents?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: idunno on October 25, 2016, 07:53:14 AM
I find the animation of changing sea ice temps, from the Graphs page, very informative, and it's not very clear from the site that it is animated. It's worth a watch...

http://polarportal.dk/en/havisen-i-arktis/nbsp/sea-ice-temperature/ (http://polarportal.dk/en/havisen-i-arktis/nbsp/sea-ice-temperature/)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on October 25, 2016, 04:46:22 PM
The gap between 2016 and 2007/2012 is slowly growing, SIE is now 70k below 2007 and 350k below 2012 for Oct 23rd.

Oct 24: 2016 is 107k below 2007 and 409k below 2012. (and 1.2 Mln below 2015)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: SCYetti on October 25, 2016, 08:11:45 PM
Brian Brettschneider has this interesting tweet. Unfortunely, it doesn't tell us if these stations from World Climate Service are just located in Alaska or around the whole Arctic.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvQeFLbVUAEFX4z.jpg:large)

What to expect in the future?

http://www.nims.go.jp/water/temp_water.html (http://www.nims.go.jp/water/temp_water.html)
Temperature of ice water in a glass
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nims.go.jp%2Fwater%2Fimages%2Fice_water.jpg&hash=5cc8baa460cae01291b8cc814efd20ad)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nims.go.jp%2Fwater%2Fimages%2Ft_t_curve1.jpg&hash=88644ca89b38830708025a1f26a48c19)

It would be cool if there were really clear practical descriptive experiments based around this principle to describe to people what happens when the arctic melts completely.

Sea water would have a different result due in part because of the density of sea water. Fresh water is the most dense at about 4C. Sea water continues to become more dense until it reaches freezing point of about -1.8C. If you did this experiment with sea water I would expect the temperature at the top and bottom would both be -1.8C.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on October 25, 2016, 09:44:26 PM

This is a useful resource for looking at density of seawater:

http://linkingweatherandclimate.com/ocean/waterdensity.php (http://linkingweatherandclimate.com/ocean/waterdensity.php)

Part of the preservation of the halocline is melting of freshwater ice (along with freshwater input from rivers). I think I read somewhere that ice becomes 'fresher' as it ages, the pockets of brine eventually being expelled. If so I'd expect younger ice to be saltier and melt <0°C and also that the halocline will be weaker as the melt water is also saltier.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: NeilT on October 25, 2016, 10:14:38 PM
Personally I have my own hobby horse.

Go to the CT interactive chart (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html), deselect everything after 2006.  Look at the comparison between what happened then and what is happening now.

Then have a look at the solar (http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/solar-cycle-10-cm-radio-flux.gif) charts (http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/solar-cycle-sunspot-number.gif) and compare 2006 with 2016.

Then we look at the 2006 80N temp anomaly (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php) chart and the 2016 80N anomaly (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php) chart.  Now I recall reading here that the temperatures drop then pop back up again and stay higher until the ocean has released it's heat.

Add to it the volume comparison between 2006 and 2016 plus the area and extent comparison between 2006 and 2016.

And I believe we have reached the same cycle from a different start point.  But we will probably see the same kind of end.  Granted we have to throw a huge El Nino into the pot and higher start temperatures and significantly more CO2 and Arctic methane to sequester the heat.

Then remember what 2007 started off as....

I think it is going to be a most instructive winter and following melt season.  I would be extremely happy to be totally wrong.  But it's not looking like it.

Here's the fun thing.

How do you compare one season with another when the only thing which is relatively constant is the solar output??  The temperatures are higher, globally, the CO2 is higher, Globally, the Methane is higher, locally, the Arctic ice is radically lower in volume.

Yet there is an expectation that we can compare one season with another.  I don't believe we can.  I believe we can only look at how each season unfolds and try to map it into a pattern of how the seasons have unfolded before.

Because when everything else is different, temp, CO2, Ice volume, Methane, then I would expect the end result to follow the cycle fairly closely but have greater impacts as the end result.  Even the weather will be markedly different.

Setting us up for a 2006/7 style transition into a perfect storm of melting.

Looking at 2007/2012, to me, won't do it.  Because, to me, we're not in that cycle.  That is to come.  The reason we're close to those levels is to do with sequestered heat and CO2 and methane, as I see it.  Not because it's some epic melt season in 2016, it wasn't, June and July were nowhere.

Just step way back and look at it in another way.  Not in the details, but in broad.

Epic start to the year in spring
Mediocre melt in the high melt time
Miss by a long way for the record.

What follows? 

Record lows going into the heart of winter.
Huge melt ponding in the spring
Perfect storm of melting in June/July/August

Or some variation of the kind because we're unlikely to see a 2007 year any time soon as the conditions can't support it. The ice is too fragile, too much heat and moisture is escaping into the weather systems.

But the type of melting year should be close.

I'm going to watch sporadically but it's already unfolding that way.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Geoff on October 26, 2016, 03:31:00 AM

This is a useful resource for looking at density of seawater:

http://linkingweatherandclimate.com/ocean/waterdensity.php (http://linkingweatherandclimate.com/ocean/waterdensity.php)

Part of the preservation of the halocline is melting of freshwater ice (along with freshwater input from rivers). I think I read somewhere that ice becomes 'fresher' as it ages, the pockets of brine eventually being expelled. If so I'd expect younger ice to be saltier and melt <0°C and also that the halocline will be weaker as the melt water is also saltier.

Huh - "As mentioned earlier, the maximum density of water affects the convection and ice formation in fresh water. For oceans, the salinity is usually 35 psu. For this level of salinity, the temperature of maximum density is below the freezing point which means as water cools on the surface, it will convect and mix with the water below. There are a few places in the world where salinity is below the critical 24.7 psu. For example, in the Siberian Sea there is water from rivers lowering the salinity and ice forms much sooner there than in other places."

Makes sense.

I posted the picture mostly to show what happens to temperatures once the ice is gone, and the speed at which it increases, but this actually explains pretty well a pretty important mechanism in the freezing season.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 26, 2016, 04:49:39 AM
This is coming up via Climate Reanalyzer in about 3 days time or so.

This for me qualifies as a breath-taking image - two huge warm wet air masses colliding on the eastern side of the central Arctic basin....
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 26, 2016, 05:14:57 AM
This is coming up via Climate Reanalyzer in about 3 days time or so.

This for me qualifies as a breath-taking image - two huge warm wet air masses colliding on the eastern side of the central Arctic basin....
While the colors are red the airmasses are still below freezing at that point (at least in some areas) so that is where the pretty colors sort of misrepresent the reality. Yes it is way way warmer vs normal but if temps are still below 32 the effect is different.

If you have a huge areas of above normal temps but the avg is still in the 20s (what will probably happen this winter) the enhanced precipitation of snow ends up overwhelming other factors, at least temporarily (for now), resulting in additional upper and mid-latitude cooling.

We are now seeing this occur over the entire Northern Hemisphere and I am terrified of the coming winter. I strongly suspect it will be the most severe in the past century for many locations with continuous bouts of record or near-record cold interspersed with some warmth.

I am looking at Nov15-Dec15 specifically for Eastern North America at the moment and I think there may be a signal for a very major East Coast event around Thanksgiving. We shall see.

In any case, I have to say that I have not seen any sort of substantial discussion about how autumnal snow totals across the NHEM are now increasing each and every year. Fairly soon I suspect the increase will overwhelm warmth outright in places like Quebec but we are still a few years from that.

The logical conclusion from Hansen's model output is that an ice age is about to begin (surprise surprise!). What people have forgotten is that a background state of +1.5C doesn't mean that locations like Quebec are always +1.5C and in fact we may soon see annual temperatures begin to fall in locations near the Greenland cold pool (it already seems to be happening).

The spatial distribution of the warmth is currently being optimized to form a heat pump directly into Greenland/the Arctic and this will continue until the balance is equalized. And the dissolution of humanity's collective farts through the vast mass of the Greenland ice sheet results in an equation where the cold output is probably sufficient to overwhelm the heat input over a very substantial area for at least some kind of length of time.

Winter is coming...

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/nh_swe.png)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 26, 2016, 05:38:27 AM
I know this is the wrong thread for this, so I will keep it simple and post further info in the proper threads, but just in case anyone is unaware; Beginning early September, Antarctic SIE took a nosedive and, looking at the JAXA graph there appears to be  a goodly chance of a record setting year there. Per an article I posted on the What's new in Antarctica thread today, warm water is attacking the ice from the bottom. This has been an outstanding year for overall ocean temps. and evidently currents have taken warmer waters into the area.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: 6roucho on October 26, 2016, 06:39:31 AM
The logical conclusion from Hansen's model output is that an ice age is about to begin (surprise surprise!).
Isn't that a debunked denier trope?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on October 26, 2016, 06:42:07 AM
@bbr,

I see you have found a new extreme theory to fancy, totally opposite from the last one. What about that "blue ocean" event we were so eagerly waiting for?  ::)

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: budmantis on October 26, 2016, 07:38:17 AM
@bbr,

I see you have found a new extreme theory to fancy, totally opposite from the last one. What about that "blue ocean" event we were so eagerly waiting for?  ::)

Aikimox has a point BBR, but there are points in your thesis that intrigue me and I suspect there's more here than meets the eye. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you're saying that temps in the arctic, though warmer than normal are still below freezing which will result in increased snowfall. Taking it to the next step, your thinking is the increased snowfall could potentially overwhelm the warming trend we've seen and result in an extended period of cooling? That's quite a reach, but I'd like to know more details.

Keep in mind everyone, that "outside the box" thinking seldom comes from conventional wisdom. The "blue ocean" event didn't happen this year, but if circumstances were different, we could have seen a new record low in sea ice area, extent and volume. Before BBR's assertions are dismissed "out of hand", let's be open at least to what further points he has to make.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 26, 2016, 08:14:12 AM
Looks like  Arctic SIE is headed toward the 7M km2 mark in just a matter of days.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: effbeh on October 26, 2016, 08:34:37 AM
Looks like  Arctic SIE is headed toward the 7M km2 mark in just a matter of days.

While previous record holders 2012 and 2007 already had surpassed the 7M km mark at this
time and 2015 was even approaching 8M km.  Yet here we are with a meager 6.68 and the
current trajectory doesn't suggest it is playing catch-up anytime soon.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on October 26, 2016, 08:37:40 AM
@bbr,

I see you have found a new extreme theory to fancy, totally opposite from the last one. What about that "blue ocean" event we were so eagerly waiting for?  ::)

Aikimox has a point BBR, but there are points in your thesis that intrigue me and I suspect there's more here than meets the eye. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you're saying that temps in the arctic, though warmer than normal are still below freezing which will result in increased snowfall. Taking it to the next step, your thinking is the increased snowfall could potentially overwhelm the warming trend we've seen and result in an extended period of cooling? That's quite a reach, but I'd like to know more details.

Keep in mind everyone, that "outside the box" thinking seldom comes from conventional wisdom. The "blue ocean" event didn't happen this year, but if circumstances were different, we could have seen a new record low in sea ice area, extent and volume. Before BBR's assertions are dismissed "out of hand", let's be open at least to what further points he has to make.

Open for sure. But we need more than just "more snowfall/colder winter => Ice Age" to start taking this claim seriously. One of the signature features of global warming is the extremes, their frequency and severity. Yes, it's likely that this winter will be cold in some regions. However, it would require more than just a few storms to create a fast transition into an ice age. Pole Reversal? Ocean current disruption? Low solar activity? Post WWW3 nuclear winter?

 Right now we have C02, methane, and a few dozen other positive feedback loops driving us into the unknown. Both Antarctic and Arctic SIE are around lowest on record. 2016 is set to become the hottest year on record and I wouldn't be surprised to see a blue ocean event next summer. I'd rather start looking into the possibilities of abrupt heating after we reach near zero arctic ice cover. How about 5c in 12 years? To me it sounds way more real than an ice age at this point. 
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 26, 2016, 08:42:32 AM
@bbr,

I see you have found a new extreme theory to fancy, totally opposite from the last one. What about that "blue ocean" event we were so eagerly waiting for?  ::)

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you're saying that temps in the arctic, though warmer than normal are still below freezing which will result in increased snowfall. Taking it to the next step, your thinking is the increased snowfall could potentially overwhelm the warming trend we've seen and result in an extended period of cooling? That's quite a reach, but I'd like to know more details.
Before BBR's assertions are dismissed "out of hand", let's be open at least to what further points he has to make.

To be honest, the first time I read this thesis it was intriguing, though in my mind undoubtedly wrong. I think that was some months ago. Now that I've read the thesis for the twentieth time (at least) it becomes a repetitive extreme theory.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 26, 2016, 09:08:09 AM
@bbr,

I see you have found a new extreme theory to fancy, totally opposite from the last one. What about that "blue ocean" event we were so eagerly waiting for?  ::)

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you're saying that temps in the arctic, though warmer than normal are still below freezing which will result in increased snowfall. Taking it to the next step, your thinking is the increased snowfall could potentially overwhelm the warming trend we've seen and result in an extended period of cooling? That's quite a reach, but I'd like to know more details.
Before BBR's assertions are dismissed "out of hand", let's be open at least to what further points he has to make.

To be honest, the first time I read this thesis it was intriguing, though in my mind undoubtedly wrong. I think that was some months ago. Now that I've read the thesis for the twentieth time (at least) it becomes a repetitive extreme theory.

It is beginning to look less and less like theory but you are welcome to disagree. Below is what the GFS/CMC ensembles project for D10. The map stays mostly the same, cooling more in North America now vs current, which will be bigger shift going through 11/15 IMO.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tropicaltidbits.com%2Fanalysis%2Fmodels%2Fgfs-ens%2F2016102600%2Fgfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_41.png&hash=561deb3912bfb62de0fc498926139217)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tropicaltidbits.com%2Fanalysis%2Fmodels%2Fgem-ens%2F2016102600%2Fgem-ens_T2ma_nhem_41.png&hash=417eb474bd4d653bf839d67cd42fb3d7)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 26, 2016, 09:12:09 AM
This is coming up via Climate Reanalyzer in about 3 days time or so.
<snip>
While the colors are red ... <snip> ...Of course... </snip>

<snip> I am terrified of the coming winter. ...with good reason, but perhaps not for the same details...</snip>

<snip>The logical conclusion from Hansen's model output is that an ice age is about to begin ... oh for crying out loud... </snip>

<snip> What people have forgotten is that a background state of +1.5C... ...no we haven't... </snip>

<snip> ...where the cold output is probably sufficient to overwhelm the heat input... ...big and very iffy assertion which really doesn't have a lot of support.  Very hard to justify when you examine how cold the CAB *should* be right now...</snip>


My point was, not that temperature were above zero, but that the distribution, and therefore the *flow* of heat is/will be well and truly scrambled, and not in any sort of way which is supportive to the production of ice, even if there's enough flow out of the ocean surface for some portions of it to freeze.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 26, 2016, 09:18:20 AM
@bbr,

I see you have found a new extreme theory to fancy, totally opposite from the last one. What about that "blue ocean" event we were so eagerly waiting for?  ::)

Aikimox has a point BBR, but there are points in your thesis that intrigue me and I suspect there's more here than meets the eye. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you're saying that temps in the arctic, though warmer than normal are still below freezing which will result in increased snowfall. Taking it to the next step, your thinking is the increased snowfall could potentially overwhelm the warming trend we've seen and result in an extended period of cooling? That's quite a reach, but I'd like to know more details.

Keep in mind everyone, that "outside the box" thinking seldom comes from conventional wisdom. The "blue ocean" event didn't happen this year, but if circumstances were different, we could have seen a new record low in sea ice area, extent and volume. Before BBR's assertions are dismissed "out of hand", let's be open at least to what further points he has to make.

The details are as follows.

As we continue to see more warming the Arctic will continue accumulating heat until the point where it hits a state change (possibly what we are seeing occur this year?).

While the Arctic will hit this point soon (if it hasn't already), Greenland is *very different*. Unlike the sea ice Greenland has a mass something like 10,000 times as great (I know I've posted these silly ideas a bunch of times and done the calcs before, but it is a veeeeery large factor above).

So while conventional thinking says "oh when you melt all the sea ice Greenland keeps melting too and everything keeps getting hotter" that is literally a bunch of idiotic garbage.

When sea ice hits the tipping point we may or may not have passed already the heat burden for the Northern Hemisphere falls entirely on Greenland. But while it takes a long time to discharge heat that accumulates from the Arctic -- which is why it keeps warming each year -- when Greenland starts to bear the brunt of NHEM heating, the reaction is very different.

Crucially, as GHG forcing increases and atmospheric heights rise/"Arctic Amplification" increases, I think the planet's topographic features also begin to have a more pronounced effect on weather. Higher heights = weaker jet stream = more impact of low-altitude topography on sensible weather.

That brings me back to my point regarding Greenland. It seems to me that once Arctic sea ice degrades to the point we are at now, the atmospheric/oceanic heat plumes that would've previously dissipated somewhere over the Arctic ice sheet through radiational cooling or whatever other process are instead pushed over Greenland, falling out the bottom as cold-ass-air that ends up filtering into either Europe or North America.

I suspect that the net cooling effect of Greenland on a plume of hot air is substantially more significant than the Arctic, such that removing the Arctic results in an *increase* in the planet's ability to resolve heat until such time as most of Greenland melts.

Perhaps my math is wrong here but if it is I don't see why the weather maps look the way they do and why Hansen's maps look even worse...

This would also explain melt pulses and why they have occurred the way they have previously. The point at where the Arctic begins to be ice free is the same time that Greenland begins discharging mass. I suspect it is a natural response to heat accumulation leading to an ice free Arctic, which is why the Arctic is so rarely ice-free (or at least why each blip over the past however many million yrs has been quickly followed by ice ages).
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 26, 2016, 09:18:47 AM
This is coming up via Climate Reanalyzer in about 3 days time or so.
<snip>
While the colors are red ... <snip> ...Of course... </snip>

<snip> I am terrified of the coming winter. ...with good reason, but perhaps not for the same details...</snip>

<snip>The logical conclusion from Hansen's model output is that an ice age is about to begin ... oh for crying out loud... </snip>

<snip> What people have forgotten is that a background state of +1.5C... ...no we haven't... </snip>

<snip> ...where the cold output is probably sufficient to overwhelm the heat input... ...big and very iffy assertion which really doesn't have a lot of support.  Very hard to justify when you examine how cold the CAB *should* be right now...</snip>


My point was, not that temperature were above zero, but that the distribution, and therefore the *flow* of heat is/will be well and truly scrambled, and not in any sort of way which is supportive to the production of ice, even if there's enough flow out of the ocean surface for some portions of it to freeze.
Oh, I agree with your points, wasn't disagreeing with you just mentioning. :)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 26, 2016, 09:37:52 AM
I think that's enough for this general freezing season thread. Would you be so kind as to open a dedicated thread for this, and limit long posts about this subject to that thread?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Pettit on October 26, 2016, 01:21:42 PM
Looks like  Arctic SIE is headed toward the 7M km2 mark in just a matter of days.

Yes, IJIS extent will indeed cross over the 7M km2 mark within the next, say, three-six days. About time; it's the only year not to have reached that threshold this late in the year. In fact, 2016 SIE is now 1.1M km2 lower than both the five-year and ten-year averages for the date. That's primarily due to two factors, of course: 1) the near-record summer minimum, and 2) the anomalously low amount of extent growth so fa this month, as seen in this graph:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimage.prntscr.com%2Fimage%2Fffc54b0d497a40ac9a1653839c29abbf.png&hash=306b0cd64a56e04e535f05fb67abdfb1)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: DoomInTheUK on October 26, 2016, 03:22:17 PM
Jim, it's even more remarkable when you consider how early the minimum was. We're nearly two months into the re-freeze and it's still a fairly sluggish growth.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: marcel_g on October 26, 2016, 04:22:21 PM
I'm just not seeing how bbr's hypothesis works. Sure a melting greenland might cause a drop in nearby sea surface temps, causing an increase in the severity of north atlantic storms, and maybe some places like northern europe might get cooler overall due to weather pattern shifts, but the bottom line is that there already is an enormous amount of extra heat in the earth's system, and that will rapidly accelerate in the Arctic as more and more ocean becomes open water.

I really doubt that how the air swirls around Greenland is really going to somehow get that heat out into space or absorb it into the ice sheet.

I think it might snow a lot more over northern lands because of the moisture coming off of an open Arctic Ocean, but to imagine a general cooling trend to happen, we'd have to imagine that a significant amount of that snow would have to last all the way through the summer. And if the Arctic is mostly open in the summer and the avg temps are going to be or already are 5C higher than they were pre-Anthropocene, then there's no way land snow won't melt out quickly.

I think it's more plausible that we end up with an equable climate at some point if the loss of Arctic sea ice stops the jet stream and polar cell from forming and there's no longer a barrier to heat from the tropics dissipating into the Arctic, but I'm just guessing there.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Darvince on October 26, 2016, 04:55:49 PM
Oh, I agree with your points, wasn't disagreeing with you just mentioning. :)
I think what you may be failing to remember is that only the surface area of the ice is effective to produce cooling, and so while the amount of ice on Greenland is far higher than the amount of Arctic sea ice, the effective cooling of the Greenland ice sheet is less than it is for the sea ice because the area that is in direct contact with air is much lower for Greenland than it is for the sea ice.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on October 26, 2016, 04:58:27 PM
The gap between 2016 and 2007/2012 is slowly growing, SIE is now 70k below 2007 and 350k below 2012 for Oct 23rd.

Oct 24: 2016 is 107k below 2007 and 409k below 2012. (and 1.2 Mln below 2015)

Oct 25: 2016 is 164k below 2007 and 430k below 2012.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on October 26, 2016, 05:53:20 PM
1) the near-record summer minimum, and 2) the anomalously low amount of extent growth so fa this month, as seen in this graph:

just about to agree on terms, the latter, (2) is not a cause IMO but a result of the real causes that are:

a) record above average temps

b) large amounts of heat in the system (water) measured through far above average water temps in some regions.

nevertheless i got your point, just trying to distinguish between cause and effect and IMO the slow re-freeze in october is an effect, not a cause, hope it's well taken, ready to stand corrected if i got that wrong
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: effbeh on October 26, 2016, 06:10:37 PM
It seems to me that once Arctic sea ice degrades to the point we are at now, the atmospheric/oceanic heat plumes that would've previously dissipated somewhere over the Arctic ice sheet through radiational cooling or whatever other process are instead pushed over Greenland, falling out the bottom as cold-ass-air that ends up filtering into either Europe or North America.

At least for Europe I remain skeptic.   Even if the air has been cold over Greenland, there is a lot of ocean in between.  NW or NNW don't have the potential for cold-ass-air up to now and I doubt this is going to change anytime soon.  Severe winter usually involves a weather pattern that cuts us of from NW or NNW winds, e.g. in form of high pressure over Fennoscandia.  Cold-ass-air is imported as a bone dry continenal air mass from E or -worse- NE.  At least if it is still available there...
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 26, 2016, 06:11:50 PM
Oh, I agree with your points, wasn't disagreeing with you just mentioning. :)
I think what you may be failing to remember is that only the surface area of the ice is effective to produce cooling, and so while the amount of ice on Greenland is far higher than the amount of Arctic sea ice, the effective cooling of the Greenland ice sheet is less than it is for the sea ice because the area that is in direct contact with air is much lower for Greenland than it is for the sea ice.
That is incorrect. As Greenland melts it becomes more porous and the gigantic fractures running through the ice sheet turn it into swiss cheese. In fact, air passing through/over Greenland encounters substantially more ice surface area that it does over the Arctic. The melt ponds that disappear as they drain through the sheet also create huge tunnels/chasms for air to funnel through which further enhances Greenland's cooling abilities.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 26, 2016, 06:16:15 PM
It seems to me that once Arctic sea ice degrades to the point we are at now, the atmospheric/oceanic heat plumes that would've previously dissipated somewhere over the Arctic ice sheet through radiational cooling or whatever other process are instead pushed over Greenland, falling out the bottom as cold-ass-air that ends up filtering into either Europe or North America.

At least for Europe I remain skeptic.   Even if the air has been cold over Greenland, there is a lot of ocean in between.  NW or NNW don't have the potential for cold-ass-air up to now and I doubt this is going to change anytime soon.  Severe winter usually involves a weather pattern that cuts us of from NW or NNW winds, e.g. in form of high pressure over Fennoscandia.  Cold-ass-air is imported as a bone dry continenal air mass from E or -worse- NE.  At least if it is still available there...
Siberia works too. In fact it seems southern Siberia has been very very very cold vs normal.

I suspect this has been enhanced this year by the gradient. Since Siberia is now completely surrounded by open water to the N, with this year's waters taking in the most heat on record, the resulting differential as you head into autumn (land becomes snow-covered, creating a huge gradient w the newly warmish ocean waters) feeds huge plumes of moisture over the continents resulting in record snowfalls as we have seen this year.

It must be remembered that record snowfalls in September/October have a much larger impact on global albedo balance than they would in Dec/Jan as well. A substantial increase in autumnal snow cover will have a very large effect on planetary albedo forcing and I think (which is another reason that the anomalies this yr have been so persistently - across Eurasia).
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on October 26, 2016, 06:27:22 PM
1) the near-record summer minimum, and 2) the anomalously low amount of extent growth so fa this month, as seen in this graph:

just about to agree on terms, the latter, (2) is not a cause IMO but a result of the real causes that are:

a) record above average temps

b) large amounts of heat in the system (water) measured through far above average water temps in some regions.

nevertheless i got your point, just trying to distinguish between cause and effect and IMO the slow re-freeze in october is an effect, not a cause, hope it's well taken, ready to stand corrected if i got that wrong

It is not a cause, it is the cause
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 26, 2016, 06:31:09 PM
bbr I repeat my request please open a thread for this Greenland bad-ass cooling and new ice age. This thread is swamped for no good reason.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 26, 2016, 06:42:19 PM
This is coming up via Climate Reanalyzer in about 3 days time or so.
<snip>

My point was, not that temperature were above zero, but that the distribution, and therefore the *flow* of heat is/will be well and truly scrambled, and not in any sort of way which is supportive to the production of ice, even if there's enough flow out of the ocean surface for some portions of it to freeze.
Oh, I agree with your points, wasn't disagreeing with you just mentioning. :)
Text is such an incomplete medium 😁

While I agree Greenland melt might produce cold pools, along with reduced thermo-haline flow, unlike what happened during the Dryas, I see total increased heat in the global system due to forcing overwhelming local conditions.

Rather, I see thermal buffering from Greenland melt and higher albedo acting more like a "lightning rod" for heat flow.  Over all, I think there is too much heat and too little sink to permit cold to persist even year over year.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on October 26, 2016, 07:11:49 PM
I think that this winter will be brutal in terms of snowfall and sporadic severe cold spells, but it will be interrupted by prolonged heat spells. That pattern should repeat over most of the northern hemisphere except for places stuck in cold or hot spells. On average temperatures will be higher or at least not low enough to change the current path.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: budmantis on October 26, 2016, 08:00:49 PM
bbr I repeat my request please open a thread for this Greenland bad-ass cooling and new ice age. This thread is swamped for no good reason.

"Swamped for no good reason"? The discussion is "on-topic" Oren, even if you don't agree with the argument.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: marcel_g on October 26, 2016, 08:59:43 PM

It must be remembered that record snowfalls in September/October have a much larger impact on global albedo balance than they would in Dec/Jan as well. A substantial increase in autumnal snow cover will have a very large effect on planetary albedo forcing and I think (which is another reason that the anomalies this yr have been so persistently - across Eurasia).

Haha, Has an albedo effect? Did you even check the amount of sunlight of the angle of the sun at northern latitudes? Eg. Northern Quebec right now gets ~8hrs of sunlight, and the sun doesn't get up to 20degrees. There really isn't much sun's energy to deflect at this time of the year compared to the amount that the arctic ocean gets in midsummer.

Also, I think you're confusing the amount of snow with coverage. The snow isn't going to be falling earlier or further south, it's just going to be deeper. But deeper snow still melts off pretty quickly in May, so it will have very little effect on global albedo or the sea ice melt season.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: marcel_g on October 26, 2016, 09:02:29 PM
Oh, I agree with your points, wasn't disagreeing with you just mentioning. :)
I think what you may be failing to remember is that only the surface area of the ice is effective to produce cooling, and so while the amount of ice on Greenland is far higher than the amount of Arctic sea ice, the effective cooling of the Greenland ice sheet is less than it is for the sea ice because the area that is in direct contact with air is much lower for Greenland than it is for the sea ice.
That is incorrect. As Greenland melts it becomes more porous and the gigantic fractures running through the ice sheet turn it into swiss cheese. In fact, air passing through/over Greenland encounters substantially more ice surface area that it does over the Arctic. The melt ponds that disappear as they drain through the sheet also create huge tunnels/chasms for air to funnel through which further enhances Greenland's cooling abilities.

Hahahaha. Nope. He's quite correct.

That's pretty funny though. Greenland dissipating heat from air because it's porous like a radiator. heh heh.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 26, 2016, 10:06:41 PM
The swiss cheese analogy of Greenland's ice sheet is actually quite accurate, but I don't know that it could take on the accumulated heat energy the Earth has stored since about 1880. The rate of accumulation since 1990 has been about 2 x 1023 Joules per second for the oceans alone. This rate has increased over time, ironically with a snowball like effect. That's why all the ocean's are so warm now, but the heat has also gone toward melting land and sea ice, heating land itself, as well as air.

This chart shows how the heat is distributed.From https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229038139_Global_energy_accumulation_and_net_heat_emission (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229038139_Global_energy_accumulation_and_net_heat_emission)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on October 26, 2016, 10:45:12 PM
good job TT thanks for sharing
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Darvince on October 27, 2016, 12:37:34 AM
Based on all I have read on this forum, I'm surprised at how high the fractions are for ground, air, and sea ice are. Especially when you consider the volumes of each.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 27, 2016, 01:28:48 AM
That's the overall accumulation for the modern Industrial Era. I am sure at different intervals of time each absorbed energy at different rates. For at least the last few decades, the oceans have literally saved our hides by serving as a vast reservoir for energy. It would take 1024 Joules to melt all the ice in Greenland; the oceans absorb that amount every 5 seconds. The oceans are vast, but not infinite.

P.S. By the way, it would only take a fraction more(1020 Joules) to heat all that water from Greenland's melted ice up to a cozy 33 deg. C. after being melted...
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on October 27, 2016, 02:20:03 AM
I remember at the end of July I felt relief because we still had sea ice in the arctic. I said to myself, maybe we get a strong refreeze and we do have at least a decade of sea ice. I can have a good year, postpone the stress. But then, this freezing season happens. ughh.
 
I for one hope that BBR is right and we get a respite from the heat.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: abbottisgone on October 27, 2016, 04:34:49 AM
I certainly find it interesting that sea ice takes up more of the heat than air.

It also brings it home how important it is if it also takes up to over a third of what the whole ocean does.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: abbottisgone on October 27, 2016, 05:17:47 AM


Hahahaha. Nope. He's quite correct.

That's pretty funny though. Greenland dissipating heat from air because it's porous like a radiator. heh heh.

Can I play some type of advocate? (Well, "..can I?" being the ultimate self test hehe!)

I can't help but feel that the more highly organised structure that is The Greenland Ice Sheet, as compared to the Arctic Sea Ice, invites more destructive force.

Looking at the identified importance of surface area we could say that moulins   are flowing water and that means an almost infinite surface area is in effect being presented to the heat filled air : meaning I don't think the numbers are in on this!

ergo: bbr may have a point!


 - sure, my use of the word 'infinite' is most probably a faux pas in someones book but what else is considered argument worthy of proper consideration?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: effbeh on October 27, 2016, 06:10:13 AM
I remember at the end of July I felt relief because we still had sea ice in the arctic. I said to myself, maybe we get a strong refreeze and we do have at least a decade of sea ice. I can have a good year, postpone the stress. But then, this freezing season happens. ughh.

After reaching an early minimum I was ready to relax and let the sea ice recover in peace but it does anything but that.  The season is looking increasingly anomalous as it progresses.  Both extent and area are in new territory.  The most ominous question is - what does it implicate for the next season?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: budmantis on October 27, 2016, 06:18:51 AM
I for one hope that BBR is right and we get a respite from the heat.

Wili posted this article from Scientific American on the Global Surface Air Temperatures thread about a returning polar vortex this winter.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: abbottisgone on October 27, 2016, 06:30:22 AM
After reaching an early minimum I was ready to relax and let the sea ice recover in peace but it does anything but that.  The season is looking increasingly anomalous as it progresses.  Both extent and area are in new territory.  The most ominous question is - what does it implicate for the next season?
Artful Dodger seems to think the loss of multi-year ice means that can only lead to salty first year ice replacing it which tends to melt very easily.

 Throw a slow freeze up into the next year and it can't be good at all.

 The multi-year sea ice in the Arctic is what people are most concerned about right around the whole world: even in Australia.

 The more open ocean in the Arctic means the more cyclones doesn't it? I think this world is very happy for a La Nina!!
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 27, 2016, 06:38:07 AM
bbr I repeat my request please open a thread for this Greenland bad-ass cooling and new ice age. This thread is swamped for no good reason.

"Swamped for no good reason"? The discussion is "on-topic" Oren, even if you don't agree with the argument.

Talking about an approaching ice age has no business on the thread which is about the 2016/2017 freezing season. This topic does not belong on this thread and I am now stupider for having read the comments.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 27, 2016, 06:54:13 AM
I for one hope that BBR is right and we get a respite from the heat.

Wili posted this article from Scientific American on the Global Surface Air Temperatures thread about a returning polar vortex this winter.

Right now, every time any cold air builds up in the Arctic, it leaks out to lower latitudes and warmer air replaces it. I am not sure this will not continue all winter. It is a hard situation to reverse.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on October 27, 2016, 07:42:32 AM
I for one hope that BBR is right and we get a respite from the heat.

Wili posted this article from Scientific American on the Global Surface Air Temperatures thread about a returning polar vortex this winter.

Right now, every time any cold air builds up in the Arctic, it leaks out to lower latitudes and warmer air replaces it. I am not sure this will not continue all winter. It is a hard situation to reverse.

It will continue until there's no more dynamics at higher latitudes, in other words till the arctic region is frozen solid, - which is getting delayed due to high dynamics  ??? as a result of low ice extent, area, volume and generally higher than average temps.
Check earth.nullschool.net air temps near the north pole - it's minus 3c! Some areas are probably still stuck in the melting season...
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: budmantis on October 27, 2016, 07:44:05 AM
bbr I repeat my request please open a thread for this Greenland bad-ass cooling and new ice age. This thread is swamped for no good reason.

"Swamped for no good reason"? The discussion is "on-topic" Oren, even if you don't agree with the argument.

Talking about an approaching ice age has no business on the thread which is about the 2016/2017 freezing season. This topic does not belong on this thread and I am now stupider for having read the comments.

Whether you agree with it or not, it did elicit some good discussion. In light of that, I find it hard to believe it made anyone "stupider". I think it was a fair and frank exchange. If the argument continued much longer, I would agree with Oren that it should be diverted to a dedicated thread, but I find it troubling that some folk on this esteemed Forum are so quick to dismiss a novel idea, whether it be farfetched or not. Some of us tend to be dogmatic in our views. Let's leave that kind of thinking with those that espouse religion and at least be willing to consider and discuss novel opinions, as opposed to dismissing them "out of hand".
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on October 27, 2016, 09:23:34 AM
bbr I repeat my request please open a thread for this Greenland bad-ass cooling and new ice age. This thread is swamped for no good reason.

"Swamped for no good reason"? The discussion is "on-topic" Oren, even if you don't agree with the argument.

Talking about an approaching ice age has no business on the thread which is about the 2016/2017 freezing season. This topic does not belong on this thread and I am now stupider for having read the comments.

Whether you agree with it or not, it did elicit some good discussion. In light of that, I find it hard to believe it made anyone "stupider". I think it was a fair and frank exchange. If the argument continued much longer, I would agree with Oren that it should be diverted to a dedicated thread, but I find it troubling that some folk on this esteemed Forum are so quick to dismiss a novel idea, whether it be farfetched or not. Some of us tend to be dogmatic in our views. Let's leave that kind of thinking with those that espouse religion and at least be willing to consider and discuss novel opinions, as opposed to dismissing them "out of hand".

Ice age is quite possible, it's one of the very few stable climatic states of our planet if we look far enough into the earth's history. So is the hothouse state which preceded all? major ice ages in the past. Here's the problem, the rate of climate change we are experiencing right now is thousands of times higher than during the PETM. At this point, given how complex the system is and how much we are affecting it on so many levels, I'd say anything is possible. But between going Venus vs Ice Age the former looks more likely based on the current state of events.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on October 27, 2016, 09:56:20 AM
Right now, every time any cold air builds up in the Arctic, it leaks out to lower latitudes and warmer air replaces it. I am not sure this will not continue all winter. It is a hard situation to reverse.

Is what you are referring to basically just a continuation of the extraordinary storminess of the Arctic this year relative to any other year in the satellite record?


Attached is the tropicaltidbits.com ECMWF 72h forecast, which is for 957 hPa at the edge of the ESS opposing 1043 hPa in front of Greenland - which would give an 86 hPa swing across the Arctic basin.

Concerning the other models, the GFS 78h prediction is only somewhat less aggressive: 1040 hPa - 966 hPa = 74 hPa swing; the most aggressive, CMC GEM at both 66h and 72h gives 87 hPa; JMA at 96h gives 72 hPa; while the least aggressive, NAVGEM at 90h gives 65 hPa.

So the general guidance from all the models is for very strong winds across the Arctic basin in the next few days.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: budmantis on October 27, 2016, 01:50:54 PM
But between going Venus vs Ice Age the former looks more likely based on the current state of events.

I agree. I think it is far more likely that AGW will continue unabated.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaice.de on October 27, 2016, 02:17:12 PM
Production of Arctic SMOS sea ice thickness data continues again: http://icdc.cen.uni-hamburg.de/1/daten/cryosphere/l3c-smos-sit.html (http://icdc.cen.uni-hamburg.de/1/daten/cryosphere/l3c-smos-sit.html)

The SMOS sea ice thickness method resolves thickness up to about 1.5 meter but uncertainties strongly increase for thicknesses above one meter.

Latest validation paper: http://www.seaice.de/Kaleschke_RSE_2016_final.pdf (http://www.seaice.de/Kaleschke_RSE_2016_final.pdf)

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: 6roucho on October 27, 2016, 04:16:09 PM
- sure, my use of the word 'infinite' is most probably a faux pas in someones book but what else is considered argument worthy of proper consideration?
"More"?

As in, Q: How many concern trolls can dance on the head of a pin? A: More.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Pettit on October 27, 2016, 04:54:09 PM
I find it troubling that some folk on this esteemed Forum are so quick to dismiss a novel idea, whether it be farfetched or not. Some of us tend to be dogmatic in our views. Let's leave that kind of thinking with those that espouse religion and at least be willing to consider and discuss novel opinions, as opposed to dismissing them "out of hand".

No one is complaining about the posting of crackpot theories; they're unhappy that those crackpot theories are being posted here, in this forum dedicated to--as the title clearly states--the 2016/2017 freezing season. "We're about to enter an ice age" nonsense doesn't belong here, period. There are other fora for such things. That's all...
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on October 27, 2016, 05:19:48 PM
The gap between 2016 and 2007/2012 is slowly growing, SIE is now 70k below 2007 and 350k below 2012 for Oct 23rd.

Oct 24: 2016 is 107k below 2007 and 409k below 2012. (and 1.2 Mln below 2015)

Oct 25: 2016 is 164k below 2007 and 430k below 2012.
Oct 26: 2016 is now 247k below 2007 and 453k below 2012
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: budmantis on October 27, 2016, 05:30:08 PM
I find it troubling that some folk on this esteemed Forum are so quick to dismiss a novel idea, whether it be farfetched or not. Some of us tend to be dogmatic in our views. Let's leave that kind of thinking with those that espouse religion and at least be willing to consider and discuss novel opinions, as opposed to dismissing them "out of hand".

No one is complaining about the posting of crackpot theories; they're unhappy that those crackpot theories are being posted here, in this forum dedicated to--as the title clearly states--the 2016/2017 freezing season. "We're about to enter an ice age" nonsense doesn't belong here, period. There are other fora for such things. That's all...

The last post by BBR on what you call his "crackpot theory" was reply #348. More space has been used to voice displeasure at his point, than the point itself. As to his point, I think it highly unlikely to happen, but I believe it is at least a possibility. BBR has made his point and has moved on, I suggest we do the same.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 27, 2016, 05:59:29 PM
Ice age is quite possible, it's one of the very few stable climatic states of our planet if we look far enough into the earth's history. So is the hothouse state which preceded all? major ice ages in the past. Here's the problem, the rate of climate change we are experiencing right now is thousands of times higher than during the PETM. At this point, given how complex the system is and how much we are affecting it on so many levels, I'd say anything is possible. But between going Venus vs Ice Age the former looks more likely based on the current state of events.
OK, I think we really *do* need to move this stuff to a different topic.  I have thoughts about this, but won't express them here. Let's stay on topic please - 2016/2017 freezing season.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 27, 2016, 06:36:01 PM
Ok, I will get it started. Just notice how, over the last 10 days or so, ice has grown around and wrapped the New Siberian Islands and spanned all the way to shore.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Pettit on October 27, 2016, 07:28:40 PM
Ok, I will get it started. Just notice how, over the last 10 days or so, ice has grown around and wrapped the New Siberian Islands and spanned all the way to shore.

Hardly a surprise. In fact, it's about time, given that it's a) the last week of October, and b) those islands are in the Arctic Ocean above 75N, where there are 20 hours of darkness every day this time of year. (The average daily temperature in October for Kotelny Island: −10.7 C [12.7F]).
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on October 27, 2016, 08:18:59 PM
With the single day NSIDC extent, we're now lowest on record by over 400k.
The previous latest date to hit the 7 million mark was Oct 24th in 2007 - we still haven't hit 7 million km2 this year.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 28, 2016, 03:30:35 AM
Right now, every time any cold air builds up in the Arctic, it leaks out to lower latitudes and warmer air replaces it. I am not sure this will not continue all winter. It is a hard situation to reverse.

Is what you are referring to basically just a continuation of the extraordinary storminess of the Arctic this year relative to any other year in the satellite record?


Attached is the tropicaltidbits.com ECMWF 72h forecast, which is for 957 hPa at the edge of the ESS opposing 1043 hPa in front of Greenland - which would give an 86 hPa swing across the Arctic basin.

Concerning the other models, the GFS 78h prediction is only somewhat less aggressive: 1040 hPa - 966 hPa = 74 hPa swing; the most aggressive, CMC GEM at both 66h and 72h gives 87 hPa; JMA at 96h gives 72 hPa; while the least aggressive, NAVGEM at 90h gives 65 hPa.

So the general guidance from all the models is for very strong winds across the Arctic basin in the next few days.

If this prediction proves correct and with a nearly ice free Beaufort, we are going to see some serious damage to the newly forming ice on the margins from waves.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 28, 2016, 05:10:53 AM
I have never been much of a weather person, but just from listening to others, I surmise that what makes a storm is a gradient. The elements are basically trying to reach a balance again. Then things are calm until they get out of balance once more. It used to be that a powerful jet stream kept the cold and hot air separated for the most part. Now, warm air swaps out with cold air so easily in the Arctic, it's bound to keep things off kilter. I know the moisture plays a part, but I will let someone who understands weather a little better get into that. Bottom line, probably more Arctic storms to be expected and more often.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on October 28, 2016, 05:14:12 PM
With the single day NSIDC extent, we're now lowest on record by over 400k.
The previous latest date to hit the 7 million mark was Oct 24th in 2007 - we still haven't hit 7 million km2 this year.

And we are still below 7mln km2 - 6,885 for Oct 27. We are below 2012 by 450k and starting from today 2007 will be of no useful reference. Also, we are one day behind lowest on record for Antaractic SIE.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 28, 2016, 06:41:18 PM
Actually NSIDC just posted for 10-27 at 7.004 M km2. JAXA is not quite there yet.

And yes, Antarctica bears keeping a close eye on this year.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on October 28, 2016, 06:43:20 PM
I'm surprised there is no sea ice maximum poll.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on October 28, 2016, 06:46:44 PM
Actually NSIDC just posted for 10-27 at 7.004 M km2. JAXA is not quite there yet.

Link?

Attached is a screenshot from their interactive graph for Oct 27.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 28, 2016, 06:49:31 PM
It may be a bit early yet to make any kind of educated guess at the maximum. Maybe in a couple months, just my opinion though.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 28, 2016, 06:55:04 PM
Actually NSIDC just posted for 10-27 at 7.004 M km2. JAXA is not quite there yet.

Link?

Attached is a screenshot from their interactive graph for Oct 27.

Here, but don't ask me why their graph is different.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/NH_seaice_extent_nrt_v2.csv
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on October 28, 2016, 06:56:24 PM
The Charctic graph uses a trailing 5 day average. The ftp link is to the single day values.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 28, 2016, 07:53:35 PM
Thank you very much. I knew it had have a logical explanation.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on October 28, 2016, 11:01:47 PM
Not sure yet but the continuation of abnormal arctic temperatures (really now for non-summer months) has been all year post El Nino) may have a signature found in this study of paleoclimate models.  It indicates that past hothouse climates experienced possible shifts in cloud structures, leading to rapidly increased warming at the poles.

I don't think this is the answer to what we are seeing, but it is an indication of some of the uncertainties in the current body of work.

http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/2001/20130093 (http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/2001/20130093)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: pauldry600 on October 29, 2016, 12:31:33 AM
Max 13.5m about

Although having said that there are around 140 melt days left so need nearly 50k jump a day on average every day to get that. Seems simple as its upping by over 100k at times but there are many days especially in early 2017 during freeze season that it will fall or even stagnate for a few days so 13.5m may be unrealistic. Around March the ice tends to stay around a plateau for a month and then drop. At least Ive noticed this lately.

Sorry for no paragraphs. Typing on a small cell.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Hefaistos on October 29, 2016, 07:30:44 AM
Those two hotspots at Svalbard might survive the winter also this year.
The first pic is SSTA, the second is SST.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: DavidR on October 29, 2016, 09:57:51 AM
Global sea temperatures so far this year (to end of Sept) have been remarkable and in the Arctic they have typically been close to 0.8 deg above the previous records. 

This may not seem a lot but consider the range for each  latitude:

Global      Increase above record: 0.27 deg.  Previous Range since 1948: 0.92
60-70 N   Increase above record: 0.77 deg.  Previous Range since 1948: 2.07
70-80 N   Increase above record: 0.92 deg.  Previous Range since 1948: 3.68
80-90 N   Increase above record: 0.78 deg.  Previous Range since 1948: 5.76

So when we try to understand what will happen to the Arctic Ice over the winter we have to accept that all the waters north of 60N are significantly hotter than in any  previous year. Therefore ice formation should be much lower than in previous years.

It's reasonable, even at this stage, to  suggest a record low maximum is highly possible. 
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 29, 2016, 02:30:09 PM
I think from time to time it's well worth to have a look at global sea-ice extent as well :-)

It may be a good year to have a thread dedicated to keeping up with Global SIE. I would think the gap between this year and previous would have to be growing, and that is going to affect the global weather system.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: pearscot on October 29, 2016, 07:35:02 PM
Wow, just wow. I was looking at the tiny 14k growth on IJIS and I can't believe what's happening. I've been reading what everyone has been saying and it is hard to believe how slow the growth has been this year. There have been some decent articles lately describing the the dipole that is forming.

It's way too early to tell, but it certainly seems like there has been some paradigm shift.  I really agree with that was written above about how the cold air 'leaks' out of the arctic.  If the rest of the season continues this way, I fear what we will see during the melt season next year.  Additionally, large amplitudes in the jet stream driven by less temperature differentials is only going to make it easy for more heat to be injected into the arctic. But as described already, the 'warm' ocean temperatures are quite profound.

The ice must have been in weaker shape than I thought at the end of the melt season as it seems so susceptible to the arctic's current conditions.

And not to get off track with stupid anecdotal stories, but the weather has been scary where I live in Colorado. We broke two heat records this week when it hit almost 85 degrees. The mountains have literally no snow and we have had the same weather pattern for months on end. I only mention this, because this is yet another effect driven by diminishing ice levels.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on October 29, 2016, 07:47:51 PM
I find it troubling that some folk on this esteemed Forum are so quick to dismiss a novel idea, whether it be farfetched or not. Some of us tend to be dogmatic in our views. Let's leave that kind of thinking with those that espouse religion and at least be willing to consider and discuss novel opinions, as opposed to dismissing them "out of hand".

No one is complaining about the posting of crackpot theories; they're unhappy that those crackpot theories are being posted here, in this forum dedicated to--as the title clearly states--the 2016/2017 freezing season. "We're about to enter an ice age" nonsense doesn't belong here, period. There are other fora for such things. That's all...

I have seen lots of posts from people proposing all kinds of theories. In fact, most theories until proven with substantial empirical data showing that models fit the observations and the predictions turn out to be correct, are in a way "crackpot". Maybe "crackpot" means a smaller consensus than "sound".
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 29, 2016, 07:48:31 PM
Every action has an equal and opposite reaction... this is even more anomalous than the sea ice, also record setting all time i believe at this point

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fclimate.rutgers.edu%2Fsnowcover%2Fpng%2Fdaily_dn%2F2016294.png&hash=84a623f379665443c5ac551a08f1ee7f)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fglobalcryospherewatch.org%2Fstate_of_cryo%2Fsnow%2Ffmi_swe_tracker.jpg&hash=7d01448218c9fe1555d12dad667406c0)

the consequence of this in terms of albedo must be very extreme... given how far S the blues are this year and the fact that we are literally two-three weeks ahead of recent years in terms of coverage means that a huge additional % of land is now reflecting much more sunlight back into space. the differential with previous years is now increasing each and every year and the earlier the differential begins blowing up the worse the albedo feedback will be. this is very scary
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on October 29, 2016, 07:54:41 PM
Wow, just wow. I was looking at the tiny 14k growth on IJIS and I can't believe what's happening. I've been reading what everyone has been saying and it is hard to believe how slow the growth has been this year. There have been some decent articles lately describing the the dipole that is forming.


The arctic has picked up about 3 million km2 since the low. I went back and compared that with every year since 1978 and found out that this amount of growth is fairly typical. Some years were much higher, with 5-6 million km2 on Oct 28 after the season low. However, many years were 4 million km2 or less (between 2-4 million km2). The pace now is about 1 million km2 of ice extent gained every 9 days. Who can say how the rate will change as the freezing season proceeds, but if the arctic can pick up 2-3 million km2 of ice from now until Feb-March, I don't expect to see a catastrophe.

The temperature in the arctic, especially above open water, has been well above average. It was stated several times that open water releases much more heat than water trapped beneath ice and that at least one person hoped we would have more open water for longer to help vent more heat. That may very well be happening.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on October 29, 2016, 08:57:03 PM
... this is even more anomalous than the sea ice, also record setting all time i believe at this point

...the differential with previous years is now increasing each and every year and the earlier the differential begins blowing up the worse the albedo feedback will be. this is very scary

The land absorbs far less heat than the ocean, and during winter, albedo is not much of a factor.  So when spring comes, the cooling effect of this snow will not be as significant as the heating due lack of sea ice. In other words, the amount of cold forcing from more snow in no way can reverse the momentum of heating embodied in our increasingly warm oceans and corresponding lack of sea ice.  Of more interest to me is the effect of excess snow on sea ice formation.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 29, 2016, 08:59:19 PM
... this is even more anomalous than the sea ice, also record setting all time i believe at this point

...the differential with previous years is now increasing each and every year and the earlier the differential begins blowing up the worse the albedo feedback will be. this is very scary

The land absorbs far less heat than the ocean, and during winter, albedo is not much of a factor.  So when spring comes, the cooling effect of this snow will not be as significant as the heating due lack of sea ice. In other words, the amount of cold forcing from more snow in no way can reverse the momentum of heating embodied in our increasingly warm oceans and corresponding lack of sea ice.  Of more interest to me is the effect of excess snow on sea ice formation.
It isn't winter yet...
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tealight on October 29, 2016, 09:32:50 PM
@bbr2314

More snow and colder 2m air temperatures shouldn't be seen as cooling at this time of the year. The snow insulates the ground and prevents it from radiating heat into space. If the ground doesn't lose heat air temperatures are of course lower. This is another factor amplifying the reduction of permafrost.

Albedo doesn't play a major role anymore and overall the heat loss of the planet should be lower with snow at high latitudes.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on October 29, 2016, 09:46:01 PM
It isn't winter yet...

Yes, thanks for that i should have put fall/winter.  The main point is that snow albedo can not appreciably reverse or slow the extra heat from long days of direct sunlight pumping gigajoules into our increasingly ice-free arctic seas.  The arctic sea ice death spiral continues to be the most significant single reason why our holocene planetary energy budget is getting completely thrown out of wack.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on October 29, 2016, 10:05:53 PM
The building storm is pulling lots of warm moist air into the Arctic basin.

With long reaches of ~60 km/h winds, there will be some waves as well.

Current NullSchool...
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on October 29, 2016, 10:21:23 PM
It was stated several times that open water releases much more heat than water trapped beneath ice and that at least one person hoped we would have more open water for longer to help vent more heat. That may very well be happening.
Yes, and of course it follows that having all that open water is good eventually because after the heat vents ice can form.  Problem is the winds from all these pressure gradients and cyclone cannons just replenish the ocean surface with warm water from depth.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 29, 2016, 10:31:03 PM
I cannot believe that the lack of snowfall is not causing more harm than good in the long run. I would like to hear more of the vets on here chime in on the matter. I would at least think the dryness would hurt the permafrost, in the long run. How that compares to the missed insulating quality of the snow, I don't know?

North America received a lesser amount of snowfall in the 2011-2012 winter, however that may have affected the Arctic that following summer.

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/snow/climate.html
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 29, 2016, 10:33:15 PM
The arctic has picked up about 3 million km2 since the low. I went back and compared that with every year since 1978 and found out that this amount of growth is fairly typical. Some years were much higher, with 5-6 million km2 on Oct 28 after the season low. However, many years were 4 million km2 or less (between 2-4 million km2). The pace now is about 1 million km2 of ice extent gained every 9 days. Who can say how the rate will change as the freezing season proceeds, but if the arctic can pick up 2-3 million km2 of ice from now until Feb-March, I don't expect to see a catastrophe.
Most of those years had much higher minimum ice during September, and therefore had a hard time gaining ice in the fall. This year had ice-free areas all the way to the North Pole, it had the second-lowest minimum extent, and still produced a lower-than average fall refreeze.
And the Arctic is supposed to pick up about 7 million km2 from now until Feb-March.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 29, 2016, 10:36:28 PM
It was stated several times that open water releases much more heat than water trapped beneath ice and that at least one person hoped we would have more open water for longer to help vent more heat. That may very well be happening.
Yes, and of course it follows that having all that open water is good eventually because after the heat vents ice can form.  Problem is the winds from all these pressure gradients and cyclone cannons just replenish the ocean surface with warm water from depth.
Exactly,
What heat escapes is only going to be from near the surface. If anything stirs the water later, more heat will come up from the depths below. The only protection against that would be thick, heavy multi-year ice, which is getting to be a commodity.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on October 29, 2016, 10:45:46 PM
I cannot believe that the lack of snowfall is not causing more harm than good in the long run. I would like to hear more of the vets on here chime in on the matter. I would at least think the dryness would hurt the permafrost, in the long run. How that compares to the missed insulating quality of the snow, I don't know?

North America received a lesser amount of snowfall in the 2011-2012, however that may have affected the Arctic that following summer.

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/snow/climate.html

Snow is a good insulator, so a lack of winter snow cover is better for permafrost regions as it allows the cold to penetrate more.

The early snow cover over much of Canada and Siberia currently will actually insulate the permafrost from the extreme cold during Winter, leaving it slightly warmer than it would have been otherwise come Spring.

The opposite is then true in Spring and Summer.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 29, 2016, 11:17:46 PM
(bbr2314 Post 292)

We have been seeing anomalously high snow covers in the fall and early winter for many years now. We have also been seeing earlier and earlier melting of this snow so that we have seen increasing negative snow cover anomalies in the Spring. I have to believe the early and high snow covers are at least partly due to the open seas in the Arctic as well as the increased moisture load in the atmosphere and the intrusions of the Arctic air mass further and further south. Thank you for posting these anomalies. It is certainly related to this freezing season. Please don't drift as you seem prepared to do into how it is evidence of the approaching ice age.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: pccp82 on October 30, 2016, 01:18:07 AM
Amateur observation here:

it is staggering to me how the cold temps just have not been able to build in the high arctic via GFS 6 day outlooks. The temp anomaly chart indicates that this indeed a significant event, and especially on Oct 31, it's temp anomaly presentation is nothing short of spectacular. I don't have many years experience looking at this sort of thing, so its difficult for me to put it into context just how out of the ordinary this is.

Is the damage already done for this freezing season? My intuition says that this is going to manifest itself in some way later on in the freezing season, whether that be most apparent in volume, area, or both. This stuff is probably all self evident, I know...but it makes me wonder just how close we are to a tipping point....and how few people are paying attention.





Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: be cause on October 30, 2016, 01:43:39 AM
An embarassingly amateur observer here , but certainly paying attention . Watching the drama unfold is extraordinary . We are probably in the middle of weather with at least the importance of the 2012 GAC .. but almost without commentary .
Is an 80mb pressure gradient between pole and ESS abnormal ? . Is a storm below 965 mb unusual at this time ? . The temperatures ? The winds and waves ? The stalling freeze ? ..
 The rapid seperation of this season from the pack will keep my ring-side seat warm all winter !
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Blizzard92 on October 30, 2016, 02:15:27 AM
I too am a bit surprised at the lack of discussion (at least in comparison to pre-min) concerning the ongoing record-breaking sea ice...

The persistence and coverage of above normal temperatures in the entire Arctic Ocean is particularly alarming over the next 1-2 weeks... https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/792019418821779458 (https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/792019418821779458). In combination with unusually warm SST and a tight pressure gradient, it should maintain sea ice at record low levels for the foreseeable future.

While CryoSat-2 real-time data is also available now (http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html (http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html)), I am interested in seeing the PIOMAS October SIT/SIV numbers in just a few days.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 30, 2016, 04:15:26 AM
The Weather channel talks Polar Vortex.

https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/polar-vortex-shifting-away-from-north-america-climate
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Blizzard92 on October 30, 2016, 04:26:09 AM
And the extent gap continues to grow...
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 30, 2016, 05:49:32 AM
Though less than perfect the HYCOM Thickness model gives a fairly good idea of how things have gone down, starting in 2012. In GIF form.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 30, 2016, 07:29:36 AM
Though less than perfect the HYCOM Thickness model gives a fairly good idea of how things have gone down, starting in 2012. In GIF form.

Thanks for the animation. The ESS is Ground Zero of this poor refreeze season. Once it does refreeze extent will be playing catch-up.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 30, 2016, 08:36:03 AM
Though less than perfect the HYCOM Thickness model gives a fairly good idea of how things have gone down, starting in 2012. In GIF form.

Thanks for the animation. The ESS is Ground Zero of this poor refreeze season. Once it does refreeze extent will be playing catch-up.
ESS, Beaufort and Kara.  I include all three.

The Chukchi has remained open fairly late all 4 years, but in the others, either one or both of the Beaufort and Kara are extensively covered.  This year, the absence of ice on both is pretty stark, and I think is a direct testament to just how much insolation they got, much earlier and for much longer; heck, the Beaufort is *still* getting some sunlight (6 hours, at low angle) - not much, but some, which strikes me as ludicrous.

Just consider what things looked like just 10 years ago - 10/28/2006 via CT - and I think that emphasizes my point.  Compare the extent to 2016.  For this much water to be this open this late at this high a latitude really  *IS* unprecedented.   I consider it just as shocking as the record low in 2012.

Here's some ponderage for all of you... let's watch the Bering sea very carefully.  It isn't dumping heat, at all, with the storms we've been seeing.  If this weather pattern continues, and keeps sending heat and moisture into the Bering and north into the Chukchi, we may see record low extent there... as in possibly very little beyond nilas much south of St. Lawrence Island or hard up against the coast where cold air flow off the land can lock it down.  Just how fast will that melt out next spring?  What will a fast Bering melt out do to the very fragile, late forming and low-thickness ice that's going to form all across the Pacific side of the Arctic, from the ESS to the Amundsen Gulf?  Any resemblance to the previous typical energy budget in the Arctic has just gone out the window.

The effect on the Arctic Biome is going to be devastating, for a start.  It goes down hill from there. I think we're in free fall, bouncing off the walls on the way to the bottom.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: CalamityCountdown on October 30, 2016, 04:23:42 PM
Summing the temperature anomaly reported by cci-reanalyzer.org/ in the arctic and antarctic together could easily be characterized as "denier math", but the +6.03 C anomaly in the arctic and the +2.20 anomaly in the antarctic sums to a stunning +8.23 C polar anomaly.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: dnem on October 30, 2016, 04:29:59 PM
These anomalies are not additive.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 30, 2016, 04:39:33 PM
jdallen....

Could you post 2016 image for comparison purposes?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: 6roucho on October 30, 2016, 05:06:59 PM
These anomalies are not additive.
Although they are averagable. A bipolar +4.115 is probably far from any recorded average.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 30, 2016, 06:31:33 PM
These anomalies are not additive.

Although, who knows the effects of a record low maximum SIE in the Arctic at the same time as a record minimum SIE around Antarctica???
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: 6roucho on October 30, 2016, 07:13:34 PM
These anomalies are not additive.

Although, who knows the effects of a record low maximum SIE in the Arctic at the same time as a record minimum SIE around Antarctica???
At the risk of being pedantic, the discussion was of temperature, and the record low maximum Arctic SIE wasn't at the same time as the record minimum Antarctic SIE. But their correlation is interesting.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on October 30, 2016, 07:37:20 PM

While CryoSat-2 real-time data is also available now (http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html (http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html)), I am interested in seeing the PIOMAS October SIT/SIV numbers in just a few days.

It will be a new record low in Sept-Oct avg growth.  It is important to realize that SIE is anachronistic to the new regime of climate in the arctic now.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 30, 2016, 08:11:44 PM
These anomalies are not additive.

Although, who knows the effects of a record low maximum SIE in the Arctic at the same time as a record minimum SIE around Antarctica???
At the risk of being pedantic, the discussion was of temperature, and the record low maximum Arctic SIE wasn't at the same time as the record minimum Antarctic SIE. But their correlation is interesting.
Was speaking of the upcoming possibility, say around early March. Temps are hindering freezing in Arctic and aiding melting around Antarctica.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: FishOutofWater on October 30, 2016, 08:16:19 PM
Antarctic is melting from below which results in a cold fresh water layer in the top 100m that doesn't sink. This means the SSTs in the southern ocean don't warm much but the oceanic heat content of the oceans rises rapidly. Don't count on an antarctic sea ice record minimum because the melting of glacial ice at depth of hundreds to thousands of meters below sea level doesn't reduce the thin ice at the surface.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 30, 2016, 08:51:56 PM
The cold melt water might have a little trouble staying in one place as there are underwater currents around Antarctica constantly bringing in more warm water. And yes the glacial ice is melting from below in many of the glaciers, especially the ones that have a retro-grade inland from the grounding lines, but the currents are also melting the sea ice. There is at least the possibility of a record coming up. I did not say it in an over confident way, just saying it could happen.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 30, 2016, 10:06:23 PM
jdallen....

Could you post 2016 image for comparison purposes?
Wish I could, but CT hasn't been updating their images for months - since the Satellite failure.  Perhaps Bremen can give us a reasonable comparison...

[Edit]  Looking at it some more, the amount of water north of 75 degrees latitude - where it is well and truly dark right now - really stands out.  That's most of the Kara, a good slug of the Barents, and even some open exposure in the CAB proper.  There's even open water still north of 80 (!!!). 

It's really pretty amazing to look, at this date, and see the *entirety* of the Kara open.  Even if this means its venting heat, it also means there was that much *more* heat to dump, and implies we're far from done.  That being the case, it calls to me to question whether the opportunity will exist for decent 2M+ ice to form.

Back to the Beaufort - If there's any thick MYI ice left, it's relict disconnnected floes, and very rare.  None of the rest (and probably most of the MYI that survived) is over 2M thick outside of areas close to the CAA, and most is actually under 1M.  That's completely at odds with what used to exist in the past.

System change.

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: NeilT on October 30, 2016, 10:18:25 PM
The effect on the Arctic Biome is going to be devastating, for a start.  It goes down hill from there. I think we're in free fall, bouncing off the walls on the way to the bottom.

Pretty much the 2017 season should be a shocker, followed by the, now common (two 5 year cycles in a row), rebound in 18/19, ready for the drop off again starting in 2020.

If that really is the cycle we're seeing (and Hans Gunnstaddar and I, on the blog, are convinced), then the black swan event could be next year but will not be any later than 2026.  Not that I'd bet on any later than 2022.

Whilst I believe that 2016 is a seminal event, I don't try to compare it with 2012 or, even, directly with 2006.  What I do is try to compare the 2016 melting season in the context of melting of 2012 to 2016 and the comparable differences between 2002 to 2006.

When we look at how 2006 diverges from the 2002 - 2005 and how 2016 diverges from 2012 - 2015, I see similarities.  Of course you have to allow for the fact that 2012 was a HUGE melt season never really seen before and that messes stuff up just like 1998 messed up the temperature records.

But that is the relationship I'm looking for.  Not a direct year on year comparison but a cycle to cycle comparison.

Because if I'm right, 2017 is going to be far more like 2007 than 2012 and it's going to be in the context of the low volume and weak ice post 2007 and 2012.

Which is, you would think, almost enough to give us the black swan event we all are waiting for but could all happily wait a lot longer to see.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Blizzard92 on October 30, 2016, 10:22:00 PM
A look at how dramatic the last few weeks has been for sea ice extent via https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/792824223618113536 (https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/792824223618113536)

This is [ daily 2016(SIE) - years(previous min) ] from JAXA record...

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on October 30, 2016, 11:03:42 PM
<SNIP>
Just consider what things looked like just 10 years ago - 10/28/2006 via CT - and I think that emphasizes my point.  Compare the extent to 2016.  For this much water to be this open this late at this high a latitude really  *IS* unprecedented.   I consider it just as shocking as the record low in 2012.
<SNIP>
The effect on the Arctic Biome is going to be devastating, for a start.  It goes down hill from there. I think we're in free fall, bouncing off the walls on the way to the bottom.

a perfect assessment indeed :-) applies to snipped parts as well, just wanted to keep the quote short :-)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Pettit on October 30, 2016, 11:05:28 PM
The arctic has picked up about 3 million km2 since the low. I went back and compared that with every year since 1978 and found out that this amount of growth is fairly typical.

Over the previous ten seasons--2006-2015--IJIS has increased an average of 3.69M km2 between minimum and today. This year, on the other hand, has seen just 2.86M, or lass than 78% of the ten-year average.

That doesn't seem "fairly typical" to me.

Of course, most of that s-l-o-w increase has been in October, with just 58% of the average month-to-date increase:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimage.prntscr.com%2Fimage%2F34ba88e01e3448bbbf9168121d5d94c3.png&hash=a1031c98938e22e492eae7a32f8fe0e0)

What's most alarming about the slow increase, of course, is that years with a very low minimum--2007, 2012, etc.--generally have faster growth rates. Not so this year; something is different.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on October 30, 2016, 11:59:37 PM
As of late October 2016, large areas of open water remain in the Beaufort, Chukchi, Bering Straits, and East Siberian Sea. The peripheral surface waters are far too warm for ice to stably form — in places some 4º C above the freezing point (-1.9º at surface salinity) — except in the eastern Beaufort and Laptev seas.

The Beaufort, Chukchi and Barents seas are seasonally ice-free now, with all that that implies. We need not wait until 2050, it’s here now. The Beaufort had significant areas of open water by the 1st of May this year and still has not frozen over six months later.

This development in the Chukchi is primarily attributable to to long fetches of open water allowing strong winds to turbulently mix surface with lower warmer water, to large and increasing inputs of warm Pacific Water crossing the 50m x 85km sill at the Bering Strait, teleconnections of an El Nino year and Pacific blob, persistent Arctic Ocean cloud cover reflecting back radiated heat, for which the stage has been set by long term trends in sea ice loss due to global warming and its Arctic amplification.

The 55-day time series below shows sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and sea surface temperature (SST) at 70º N, 170º W (green circle) and the sea ice edge response to conditions (AMSR2 zero ice concentration envelope, yellow line). Solar input has ceased; colder air temperatures are ineffectual at cooling large volumes of mixed water — the meagre heat capacity and low conductivity of air are no match for wind-mixed waters or the recent and continuing surge through the Bering Strait suggested by surface salinity data. However air temperatures themselves have been most anomalously warm, see https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/790579202181390336 (https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/790579202181390336)

The mean October anomaly at the indicated site is 2.3º C above the average sea surface temperature of 4.3º. It’s feasible to obtain these statistics regionally (over each daily expanse of open water) using the AMSR2 mask to restrict a contoured version of the nullschool display, but probably better to retrieve the raw data product RTG-SST/NCEP/NWS or its daily contour map.

Sea ice-dependent marine mammals such as walruses reach feeding grounds by resting on floes carried by wind and current; an embedded sub-animation shows a walrus shaking its head as it fades to near-oblivion on the final frame. On October 24th, the nearest ice to Barrow AK was 448 km to the north. The first few kilometers of that gray/pancake/underwater frazil ice would not support the weight of a gerbil.

Indeed the Arctic Ocean has not frozen north of Svalbard either, which is 730 km farther north than Barrow and just 1050 km from the north pole. The issues here are different for the Barents though, involving the Atlantic Water currents and a close-in continental shelf.

The Arctic Ocean does not need a ‘black swan’ event any more to fall catastrophically below its trend line, a gray swan event will do. That’s weather conditions well within normal variation but ill-timed: sunny weather during early melt season, strong cyclones in August, persistent warm and humid air brought in by lower latitude hurricanes, steady pressure dipoles whose winds expors ice out the Fram, and so on. Here the black swan of September morphs to white by the end of October to represent the Chukchi and Bering Straits are not freezing up as in the past (3rd and 4th animations).

Some very recent scientific articles describe the currents and heat inputs across the Bering Strait and analyse the satellite record in this area. Note though that an article published in October 2016 will have a data cutoff of 2014, but the 37 abstracts at this December’s AGU2016 mentioning the Chukchi or Beaufort bring these up to date..

Emerging trends in the sea state of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas
J Thomson et al  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2016.02.009 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2016.02.009)
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00345/45590/45202.pdf (http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00345/45590/45202.pdf) free full text

The sea state of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas is controlled by the wind forcing and the amount of ice-free water available to generate surface waves. Clear trends in the annual duration of the open water season and in the extent of the seasonal sea ice minimum suggest that the sea state [ie waves] should be increasing, independent of changes in the wind forcing…. The increase in wave energy may affect both the coastal zones and the remaining summer ice pack, as well as delay the autumn ice-edge advance [to the extent waves hit the edge].

A Synthesis of Year-Round Interdisciplinary Mooring Measurements in the Bering Strait (1990–2014)
RA Woodgate et al
Oceanography | September 2015
http://tos.org/oceanography/assets/docs/28-3_woodgate.pdf (http://tos.org/oceanography/assets/docs/28-3_woodgate.pdf)  free full text

Although the volume transport of the Alaskan Coastal Current (ACC) of  ~0.1 Sv is small compared to the full Bering Strait throughflow of ~0.8 Sv [which in turn is a quarter of Atlantic Waters entering at the Barents at 3.2 Sv],  the ACC is 5ºC warmer and 7 psu fresher than the main waters of the strait, it carries a third of the heat and onequarter of the freshwater flux of the Bering Strait.

Perhaps most dramatic interannual variability is the increase in Bering Strait volume flux from 2001 to 2013 from ~0.7 Sv to ~1.1 Sv, almost a 50% increase in the flow. Since to first order whatever enters the Bering Strait must exit the Chukchi Sea into the Arctic Ocean, this increases ventilation of the Arctic halocline, decreases residence time in the Chukchi by several months, and increases oceanic heat flux.

Since Pacific waters exit the Arctic via the Fram Strait and the CAA at near-freezing temperatures, this allows us to quantify the heat lost from the Pacific waters somewhere in the Chukchi/Arctic system. Including corrections for the ACC and stratification, calendar-mean Bering Strait heat fluxes are 3 6 x 1020 J/ yr 1 (or 10 -20 TW,  comparable to  shortwave solar input to the Chukchi Sea.

This quantity of heat is sufficient to melt 1-2 million square km of 1 m thick ice. Bering Strait heat flux may act as a trigger to create open water upon which the ice albedo feedback can act, and also provides a year-round subsurface source of heat potentially thinning Arctic sea ice, since Pacific summer waters are found in half the Arctic Ocean.

Variability, trends, and predictability of seasonal sea ice retreat and advance in the Chukchi Sea
MC Serreze, AD Crawford, JC Stroeve, AP Barrett, RA Woodgate
J. Geophys. Res. Oceans,121, doi:10.1002/2016JC011977 (2016) blocked access, figures available

As assessed over the period 1979–2014, the date that sea ice retreats to the shelf break (150 m contour) of the Chukchi Sea has a linear trend of 20.7 days per year. The date of seasonal ice advance back tothe shelf break has a steeper trend of about 11.5 days per year, together yielding an increase in the open water period of 80 days.

Based on detrended time series, we ask how inter-annual variability in advance and retreat dates relate to various forcing parameters including radiation fluxes, temperature and wind, and the oceanic heat inflow through the Bering Strait (from in situ moorings). Of all variables considered, the retreat date is most strongly correlated with the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow. Predictability will likely always be limited by the chaotic nature of atmospheric circulation patterns.

Enhanced heat fluxes from the ocean back to the atmosphere in autumn and winter is a major driver of Arctic amplification — the outsized rise in Arctic surface air temperatures relative to the rest of the planet. Whether the effect of ice loss on Arctic amplification extends through a deep enough layer of the troposphere to alter jet stream patterns with impacts on middle-latitude weather is a vibrant area of debate.

GC24A-01: Sea State and Boundary Layer Physics in the Emerging Arctic Ocean
Tuesday, 13 December 2016 Moscone West - 3005

The sea state of the Arctic Ocean is changing. With an increasing retreat of sea ice in the summer months, storms are now more likely to occur over open water, and the result is an increasing trend in both the heights and periods of surface waves in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. The elevated sea state affects, in turn, the refreezing process in the autumn. In 2015, a field campaign collected a comprehensive suite of air-ice-ocean measurements during the autumn freeze-up in the Beaufort Sea, and these measurements are used to investigate the surface wave effects and coupled dynamics.

The most prominent process is the formation of pancake ice, which occurs when surface wave motions disturb newly forming frazil ice. Analysis of a wave event from open water through different stages of a gradually maturing pancake ice cover shows high sensitivity of the surface waves to the types of ice cover. Other cases suggest that waves impact the near-surface heat flux convergence, impacting the ice formation. Hence, there is a two-way interaction between ice and waves. Wave attenuation is captured with adjustment of a viscoelastic parameterization in a wave hindcast model. The results suggest that a fully coupled air-ice-wave model will be necessary to describe the evolution of sea state and ice cover during the Arctic freeze-up.

C31D-02: Regional Upper Ocean Variability and Ocean Heat Losses during the 2015 Autumn Ice-Edge Advance in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas as Observed during the Sea State Field Campaign
Wednesday, 14 December 2016 Moscone West

Some of the fastest Arctic sea ice changes are happening in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas as indicated by a much earlier (by ~49 days over the last 36 years) ice-edge retreat in spring, followed by a much later (by ~43 days) ice-edge advance in autumn (based on 1979-2014 satellite observations). The lengthening of the summer open water season and increasing fetch also mean greater upper ocean heat content and a longer, possibly stronger period of wind/wave forcing on the upper ocean and advancing sea ice cover.

To understand how surface waves and winds affect air-sea-ice interactions and consequently the timing of the autumn ice-edge advance in the emerging Arctic, a Sea State field campaign was conducted aboard NSF’s R/V Sikuliaq from 4 Oct to 5 Nov 2015. During the campaign we obtained contemporaneous in situ observations of the atmospheric boundary layer, ice cover, wave state and upper ocean along a cruise track in and out of the advancing ice cover in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. Vessel-underway (uCTD) profiler was used to collect over 4200 upper ocean profiles during both quiescent and stormy conditions in and outside the ice cover.

Using the uCTD data we describe the spatial variability in upper ocean structure and heat content within the context of its recent past regarding summer open water duration and wind/wave forcing, as well as regional variability in water mass characteristics. We then describe the contemporaneous air-sea-ice observations, including air-ocean energy fluxes and changes in upper ocean heat content during brief periods of ice-edge advance, loitering and retreat to explain the overall space/time evolution of the ice-edge advance in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas during autumn 2015.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on October 31, 2016, 03:01:31 AM
The arctic has picked up about 3 million km2 since the low. I went back and compared that with every year since 1978 and found out that this amount of growth is fairly typical.

Over the previous ten seasons--2006-2015--IJIS has increased an average of 3.69M km2 between minimum and today. This year, on the other hand, has seen just 2.86M, or lass than 78% of the ten-year average.

That doesn't seem "fairly typical" to me.


Thanks for challenging my eyeball assessment. I was impressed by the quote by Christian Wolf (Ben Affleck) from The Accountant: "I don't guess." Therefore, to remove all doubt I took the daily ice extent data published by NSIDC, dropped it into a spread sheet, identified the minimum for each year since 1979, and created a formula to calculate the min-to-date increase for every published date. I admit I didn't take the 5-day moving average but the daily amounts should be good enough for this exercise. Here is the min-to-date increase for October 29 every year since 1979 in million km2. You can decide for yourself what is "fairly typical." When Oct 29 data isn't available for a given year I am reporting Oct 30.

1979          2.902
1980          2.378
1981          2.817
1982          3.038
1983          3.110
1984          3.037
1985          3.080
1986          3.195
1987          2.819
1988          2.831
1989          3.154
1990          3.867
1991          3.412
1992          2.860
1993          3.688
1994          3.136
1995          3.806
1996          2.542
1997          2.860
1998          2.977
1999          4.046
2000          3.389
2001          2.685
2002          3.554
2003          3.077
2004          3.217
2005          3.810
2006          4.353
2007          3.938
2008          4.559
2009          3.339
2010          3.486
2011          3.947
2012          4.299
2013          3.733
2014          3.850
2015          3.902
2016          3.028
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on October 31, 2016, 04:20:55 AM
I find it interesting that the older you go in the data, the lower growth there is. It makes sense, since the minimum was much higher in the 80's and much lower in recent years. It is also interesting that 2007 and 2012 have much higher than average growth, which also makes sense because they were record minimum years. That 2016 minimum extent was lower than 2007 but the growth to date was still poor is what is concerning.

To me this is just a preview of what it will look like after the first ice free year in the Arctic. Right now there is a whole bunch of albedo related heat overwhelming the freezing power of the Arctic winter. My guess and hope is that at some point before February, winter power can take care of most of the heat, allowing the ice to regrow. If/when that happens I expect sea ice to jump up at record speeds, like we saw in September. If that happens early enough, then maybe there will be enough time for ice to thicken before the melting season begins.

 
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Magma. on October 31, 2016, 04:34:32 AM

Thank you for that excellent post, packed full of comments and references worth studying in detail. One minor font-related issue; for whatever reason the Serreze et al. abstract on ice retreat in the Chukchi Sea showed annual trends as 20.7 days per year and 11.5 days per year rather than -0.7 days per year and +1.5 days per year.

Quote
As assessed over the period 1979–2014, the date that sea ice retreats to the shelf break (150 m contour) of the Chukchi Sea has a linear trend of -0.7 days per year. The date of seasonal ice advance back to the shelf break has a steeper trend of about +1.5 days per year, together yielding an increase in the open water period of 80 days.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: abbottisgone on October 31, 2016, 04:43:29 AM
Though less than perfect the HYCOM Thickness model gives a fairly good idea of how things have gone down, starting in 2012. In GIF form.

Thanks for the animation. The ESS is Ground Zero of this poor refreeze season. Once it does refreeze extent will be playing catch-up.
All this open ocean will continue to play tricks with the freeze up.

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: budmantis on October 31, 2016, 04:55:59 AM
I'd like to add my thanks as well A-Team for a very thorough and detailed post.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 31, 2016, 05:08:34 AM
 I didn't know JAXA had this thickness map. I kind of stumbled onto it.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on October 31, 2016, 05:24:57 AM
Yes that was a great post A-Team thank you!!
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: mmghosh on October 31, 2016, 06:51:18 AM
Is there an approximate date around which the Bering Strait closes?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 31, 2016, 07:11:07 AM
You can decide for yourself what is "fairly typical."
Eyeballing, 3.1 for the past climate, 3.8 for the new climate of the past ten years, which was the point.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: abbottisgone on October 31, 2016, 07:13:17 AM
I didn't know JAXA had this thickness map. I kind of stumbled onto it.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
I hope that map is wrong  :o :o :o :o :o :o
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 31, 2016, 10:24:59 AM
So I've been assuming the recent refreeze stall and Chukchi extent drop is mainly the resut of a cyclone on the pacific side. Is this more or less correct?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 31, 2016, 10:45:50 AM
So I've been assuming the recent refreeze stall and Chukchi extent drop is mainly the resut of a cyclone on the pacific side. Is this more or less correct?

As the stationary cyclones tend to raise the waters under them they help the Pacific waters to enter arctic, so kind of yes i'd say. The A-team post shows one of these surges, i think. Moreover the cyclones bring also atmospheric warmth to arctic if theyre in a correct position, so still kind of yes. There could be more to it than i get though
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Pettit on October 31, 2016, 11:54:19 AM
Thanks for challenging my eyeball assessment. I was impressed by the quote by Christian Wolf (Ben Affleck) from The Accountant: "I don't guess." Therefore, to remove all doubt I took the daily ice extent data published by NSIDC, dropped it into a spread sheet, identified the minimum for each year since 1979, and created a formula to calculate the min-to-date increase for every published date. I admit I didn't take the 5-day moving average but the daily amounts should be good enough for this exercise. Here is the min-to-date increase for October 29 every year since 1979 in million km2. You can decide for yourself what is "fairly typical." When Oct 29 data isn't available for a given year I am reporting Oct 30.

1979          2.902
1980          2.378
1981          2.817
1982          3.038
1983          3.110
1984          3.037
1985          3.080
1986          3.195
1987          2.819
1988          2.831
1989          3.154
1990          3.867
1991          3.412
1992          2.860
1993          3.688
1994          3.136
1995          3.806
1996          2.542
1997          2.860
1998          2.977
1999          4.046
2000          3.389
2001          2.685
2002          3.554
2003          3.077
2004          3.217
2005          3.810
2006          4.353
2007          3.938
2008          4.559
2009          3.339
2010          3.486
2011          3.947
2012          4.299
2013          3.733
2014          3.850
2015          3.902
2016          3.028

As Arachmid noted in a comment adjacent to yours, "I find it interesting that the older you go in the data, the lower growth there is. It makes sense, since the minimum was much higher in the 80's and much lower in recent years."

Indeed.

I'm of the opinion that comparisons to much older years for this particular metric are truly a case of apples to oranges. IOW, of course post-minimum extent increases in the past weren't as dramatic as they have been recently, as there was simply more extent to begin with. But that wasn't the case in 2007, say, or 2012, recent years for which comparisons to 2016 are far more valid. That 2016 had so little extent at minimum and is nevertheless lagging far behind those other years is very telling of something more than "fairly typical". I'm not crying, "Catastrophe!"; I'm just noting the oddity of the current situation--and utterly odd it is.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tealight on October 31, 2016, 11:57:45 AM
The Beaufort, Chukchi and Barents seas are seasonally ice-free now, with all that that implies....

Shouldn't it be Kara Sea instead of Barents Sea? Most of the Barents Sea is year-round ice-free.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on October 31, 2016, 04:40:22 PM
Meanwhile we are over 500k km2 below 2012 for Arctic and now matching 1986 for lowest extent in Antarctica... 
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 31, 2016, 04:50:52 PM
The Beaufort, Chukchi and Barents seas are seasonally ice-free now, with all that that implies....

Shouldn't it be Kara Sea instead of Barents Sea? Most of the Barents Sea is year-round ice-free.
The Barents has gotten quite a bit of ice as recently as 2014.  A totally ice-free Barents Sea at this point in the year is a very new phenomenon - new not just to this century, but to this *decade*.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on October 31, 2016, 05:49:01 PM
NSIDC has stalled a couple times in the last week and finally did a back-slide.

2016,    10,  25,      6.956,     
2016,    10,  26,      6.965,     
2016,    10,  27,      7.006,     
2016,    10,  28,      7.103,     
2016,    10,  29,      7.111,     
2016,    10,  30,      7.048,
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tealight on October 31, 2016, 06:40:18 PM
The Barents has gotten quite a bit of ice as recently as 2014.  A totally ice-free Barents Sea at this point in the year is a very new phenomenon - new not just to this century, but to this *decade*.

To be exact the Barents Sea is between totally ice-free and seasonally ice-free. If I combine the highest extent of the last 10 years, over 50% of the Barents remained ice-free.

My comment was meant to question the group: "The Beaufort, Chukchi and Barents seas "
The Barents sea just doesn't fit in because unlike the other two it doesn't completly freeze over in Winter. The Kara Sea would fit this group much better.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 31, 2016, 09:43:25 PM
Eric Holthaus:  Parts of the Arctic are currently more than 20 deg C warmer than “normal”...
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 31, 2016, 10:00:47 PM
<snip>
<snip>
My comment was meant to question the group: "The Beaufort, Chukchi and Barents seas "
The Barents sea just doesn't fit in because unlike the other two it doesn't completly freeze over in Winter. The Kara Sea would fit this group much better.
Point taken. 

I'll still hair split with you a bit over it, in so far as the Barent's extent at this stage is significantly down from where we would normally expect it to be, considering the historic behavior.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 31, 2016, 10:03:25 PM
Eric Holthaus:  Parts of the Arctic are currently more than 20 deg C warmer than “normal”...
Key take-away from that image is *ALL* of the Arctic Ocean is well above normal.  That means areas already frozen are building that much less ice, even now.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on October 31, 2016, 10:33:19 PM
we are observing a post ENSO driven shift in the climate regime of the Arctic. 

This is not albedo-driven warming as the regional heat and temperatures were not expressed until refreeze.  Note that this trend of temperature abnormality in the low-insolation months was expected with increased water vapor intrusion from the mid-latitudes and the collapse of the polar atmospheric cell.

note continual northern latitude blocking pattern driven intrusion of mid-latitude moisture into Arctic region

http://weather.utah.edu/index.php?runcode=2016103112&t=gfs004&r=NH&d=DT (http://weather.utah.edu/index.php?runcode=2016103112&t=gfs004&r=NH&d=DT)

See the animation of tracked warmth/water vapor here:  https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/10/31/2100Z/wind/isobaric/700hPa/orthographic=-154.71,78.97,816 (https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/10/31/2100Z/wind/isobaric/700hPa/orthographic=-154.71,78.97,816)

this is our current graph of SIE, note that this metric is no longer a good comparison with previous years due to loss of multi-year ice

attached below:

If >80'N avg temperatures and SIE comparisons are any indication we will be approaching the 2012 absolute minimum sea ice volume in PIOMASS for both the Nov 1st and October monthly average values (should be slightly higher than 2012 in both measures)

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 31, 2016, 10:52:42 PM
This is not albedo-driven warming as the regional heat and temperatures were not expressed until refreeze.
Not disagreeing with your post, just nitpicking with the quoted comment. I believe that the early melt out of peripheral seas like the Beaufort did help accumulate heat that made itself present at the end of the season. In addition, I have a nagging gut feeling that the long time from melt to refreeze in those areas means that surface salinity managed to go higher over the season and the surface water became well mixed, and this in turn helps postpone the refreeze. This can possibly be verified by someone with more knowledge.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: plinius on October 31, 2016, 11:03:54 PM
Shouldn't it be Kara Sea instead of Barents Sea? Most of the Barents Sea is year-round ice-free.
Barents has been ice-free in summer since about 1990 (with outliers on both sides). And never ice-free in winter (though we are slowly getting there with a record of <0.5 Mio sqkm in 2011/12).
Kara is more recent - summer ice has been lost around 2005, and 2011/12 and 2015/16  have been the first incidents ever of incomplete winter coverage. I suppose you forgot how _fast_ things are changing up there. A-Team probably has a longer baseline of observing them than you.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on October 31, 2016, 11:08:51 PM
If the albedo driven warming input was that significant then we would not have such a high average october temperature shift (as compared to 2007 and 2012), plus the regional temps were already breaking records BEFORE the melt season.  Not saying that there is NO imput from albedo (there is) but that the impact of a collapse of the Polar cell is now observable.  I attribute this directly to the increase in water vapor levels and upper tropospheric warming (and resulting increase in 500mb heights) as a result of reductions in Anthropogenic SO2 emissions.

note Svalbard (black is normal temp)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.yr.no%2Fstasjon%2Feklima%2F99840%2Fgraf%2Fmnd.eng.png&hash=8a7525d06d7c8937e8dcaa7861e7068b)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on October 31, 2016, 11:15:20 PM
Parts of the Arctic are 20C above normal   :o

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwH11LMVMAA85Ia.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: NeilT on October 31, 2016, 11:25:50 PM
This is not albedo-driven warming

Would this be a good time to go back and look at the historical CO2 levels for the years we're trying to compare and also look at what methane is doing?

Back in 2006 it was, fully, 22ppm lower in CO2, in August, than it was in 2016.  In 1996 it was fully 55ppm CO2 lower than it was in August 2016.

When AMEG started it's dire warnings about the catastrophic Methane driven warming in the Arctic, they were warning about highs of 1900ppb methane levels being recorded.

Methane levels in the Arctic in October 2016 were up at 2400ppb.

Taking a step back and looking at it.  With the same input forcing, if we were _not_ seeing catastrophic changes in ice melt, ice re-freeze and in anomalously high temperatures at the  beginning of winter;  it would negate the entire premise of carbon driven warming.

Comparing ice volume and melt and re-freeze with 1996, when there was 55ppm less CO2 in the atmosphere (globally), should not be possible; without being able to derive the additional ice melt required to balance the temperature increase of that much heat sequestration.

Once we have analysed the 1996 figures with the ice melt capability and heat sequestration of 55ppm CO2 and 20 years of additional warming as that CO2 grew, it should then be possible to work out if 2016 was an anomalous year (outlier), or just an expected consequence of CO2 and methane driven warming.

Well that's my thinking anyway.

Of course I'm not clever enough to do the math. I'm not even sure that a model exists to calculate that specific outcome.  What I am sure of is that 50 years from now science will know exactly what happened, how it happened and what drove it.  All from clear observations and the end result of the experiment humanity is carrying out with the gas balance of the atmosphere.



Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 01, 2016, 12:13:46 AM
This is not albedo-driven warming

Would this be a good time to go back and look at the historical CO2 levels for the years we're trying to compare and also look at what methane is doing?
<snippage>
Taking a step back and looking at it.  With the same input forcing, if we were _not_ seeing catastrophic changes in ice melt, ice re-freeze and in anomalously high temperatures at the  beginning of winter;  it would negate the entire premise of carbon driven warming.
<more snippage>

I think there is no question that a lot of what we see this year is the culmination of many decades of incremental change in the global heat budget and atmospheric circulation, and I expect that in part is Jai's point.

On the other hand, the last few years have provided us with a cornucopia of unanticipated feedbacks and accelerations.  To speak to some other folks points, I think that's where the discussion of albedo comes from.

Even then, that still is not a "prompt" phenomenon; the effects of albedo (if any) on what is happening now is a result of increased insolation uptake from last spring and early summer.  That's where the unbalance would really be felt.

So, what we are seeing is a sum of a wide range of variable but increasing forces.  I think the attached image link may provide a useful metaphor.

https://farm1.staticflickr.com/339/19361016472_83bb01214d_o.gif
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 01, 2016, 04:08:48 AM
                  The oceans have been absorbing about 93% of all globally accumulated heat since about 1971. They absorbed heat before that but not at that rate. The rate has changed over the years, with the most recent rate being about   1022 total joules accumulated each year for all the oceans. At a variable rate per year and some difference in opinion as to what year to start counting and absorption varying between 0.5 watts per meter and 1.0 watts per meter, we get a good ballpark estimate. This adds up because the oceans take up 360,600,000 km2 and has a volume of roughly 1,334,900,000 km3 total water. Mind boggling to me. An astronomical amount of heat has been stored in the oceans over the last several decades. Thanks to the MOC, this heat has been redistributed from the tropics to the poles.


Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on November 01, 2016, 05:53:32 AM
                  The oceans have been absorbing about 93% of all globally accumulated heat since about 1971. They absorbed heat before that but not at that rate. The rate has changed over the years, with the most recent rate being about   1022 total joules accumulated each year for all the oceans. At a variable rate per year and some difference in opinion as to what year to start counting and absorption varying between 0.5 watts per meter and 1.0 watts per meter, we get a good ballpark estimate. This adds up because the oceans take up 360,600,000 km2 and has a volume of roughly 1,334,900,000 km3 total water. Mind boggling to me. An astronomical amount of heat has been stored in the oceans over the last several decades. Thanks to the MOC, this heat has been redistributed from the tropics to the poles.

This is based on multiple assessments of ocean heat data but the most recent iteration of arctic warmth involves rapidly increased meridional transport of atmospheric heat to the poles.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on November 01, 2016, 07:17:54 AM
Parts of the Arctic are 20C above normal   :o

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwH11LMVMAA85Ia.jpg)
I disagree with what you said before and this map you show is the argument I have. The current weather pattern is enabling all this Arctic heat release, and the heat being released was sun radiation absorbed in spring and summer, plus whatever came from direct ocean input before and during the season.
There is a big pulse of Bering inflow associated with it. Otherwise, this weather pattern is the one you would really want to alleviate the extreme overheating of the Arctic. I mean, the heat is going to the place where the planet can best get rid of it.
I am not convinced this will be too relevant for next season if weather comes warm, what really makes a difference is the lack of thick ice and multi year ice and the global warming in the background. Another early warm spring in the Northern Hemisphere and 2017 may simply go lower than 2016 and 2012.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Sleepy on November 01, 2016, 07:24:43 AM
Lookalikes on the 5:th of November at 10mb.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 01, 2016, 09:10:20 AM
Parts of the Arctic are 20C above normal   :o
I disagree with what you said before and this map you show is the argument I have. The current weather pattern is enabling all this Arctic heat release, and the heat being released was sun radiation absorbed in spring and summer, plus whatever came from direct ocean input before and during the season.
There is a big pulse of Bering inflow associated with it. Otherwise, this weather pattern is the one you would really want to alleviate the extreme overheating of the Arctic. I mean, the heat is going to the place where the planet can best get rid of it.
I am not convinced this will be too relevant for next season if weather comes warm, what really makes a difference is the lack of thick ice and multi year ice and the global warming in the background. Another early warm spring in the Northern Hemisphere and 2017 may simply go lower than 2016 and 2012.
A few thoughts.

The first is, without imported heat, the top layers of ocean in the peripheral seas would have started freezing over weeks ago.  The rate of loss I think would have been sufficient to cool the top few meters sufficiently that we'd see a cap form; perhaps not thick, but ice none the less.

I don't think the Arctic ocean and peripheral seas are really losing that much heat.  I'd love to see this image *if* it weren't for the fact all of that heat is coming via imported moisture from lower latitudes.  Now doubt "superheated" (1-4C SST's in some places...) peripheral seas are contributing, but not as much as what is being imported.

Lastly, cloud cover and precipitation.  There's a lot of it, and I don't think its home grown.  Again, this is energy being swept into the arctic from further south.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on November 01, 2016, 09:38:10 AM
Agree, jdallen.

Another factor - as pointed out by A-Team in his terrific post - is the cloud cover minimizes the radiative heat loss from the ocean surface into space, which would presumably otherwise be the dominant heat loss mechanism at this time of year.

  On the Pacific side of the Arctic basin, that weather pattern is forecast to continue at least for the next few days, though with weakening winds.

  On the Atlantic side, the forecast is for the high pressure system that is currently on the Arctic side of Greenland to drift southwards. I'm guessing that will bring clear skies to help cool the water near the ice pack edge and so allow the ice pack to expand somewhat more quickly on the Atlantic side. There are lots of unknowns though - at least to me - in the relative importance of the various heat flows and reservoirs - and there appears to be a lot more heat this year than usual in the surface water near the Atlantic sea ice edge - so we will see what happens.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: BenB on November 01, 2016, 10:42:59 AM
More on Svalbard (in Norwegian):

http://www.yr.no/artikkel/svalbard-pa-vei-mot-solid-varmerekord-for-2016-1.13199881 (http://www.yr.no/artikkel/svalbard-pa-vei-mot-solid-varmerekord-for-2016-1.13199881)

Basically, the 2016 calendar year is very likely to be record warm, there will be a record low number of frost days, October experienced record high rainfall and the climate is visibly and rapidly changing.

The average temperature in October came in at plus 3.2 °C, against an average of minus 5.5 °C, and over the past 12 months temperatures averaged -0.4 °C, over six degrees above the average of -6.7 °C.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: JayW on November 01, 2016, 11:57:20 AM
Attachment 1 is an animation of the last 7 days using SUOMI VIIRS I05 images. Basically centered on the Alaska.

http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/search?utf8= (http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/search?utf8=)✓&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B3%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B16%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B1%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B15%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B17%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B3%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B18%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B10%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B11%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B9%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B8%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B12%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B13%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B14%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B6%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B5%5D=1&search%5Bstart%5D=&search%5Bend%5D=&commit=Search

  It's my attempt at a water vapor loop and show the weather over the last week.  The dark areas are generally where the densest clouds are, white areas generally are cloud free. 


Second attachment is the same shot, just 3 different channels to illustrate what the dark and light areas actually show. Let others interpret what's going on.  I have my thoughts  :)  edit: it goes I05 to landcover to truecolor.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: dnem on November 01, 2016, 03:43:11 PM
There has been a tremendous amount of interesting discussion recently about the source, fate and impact of extra heat in the arctic across this, the IJIS and the "Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation" threads.

The unknowns include:
Is the extra heat in the arctic exogenous (imported from lower latitudes) or endogenous (albedo-related or upwelled from warmer water at depth or both)?
Are the current anomalously high air temps "good" (venting heat from the system to be lost to space) or "bad" (indicative of the import of exogenous heat)?
Is low SIE "good" (allows venting of heat from the water) or bad (slow freeze season will lead to fast/big next melt season)

To me, asking if the current low SIE is good or bad rather begs the question.  Obviously an arctic covered in ice and then blanketed in snow does reduce the loss of oceanic heat.  But it also prevents storms from mixing the water column and keeps the heat safely at depth ("We've ALWAYS had enough heat in the arctic to met all the ice").

So it is both: low SIE must be allowing heat out of the ocean, but it appears to meeting exogenous heat and increased water vapor in the atmosphere so it is not really an efficient means of truly venting heat out of the system.  It also allows summer insolation to warm the ocean and storms to mix warmer waters at depth to the surface.

Similarly with respect to the source of the heat: it is both.  If there was really always enough heat in the arctic to melt the ice, more of that MUST be coming in contact with the ice due to enhanced mixing.  And it strains credulity to suggest that there are not meaningful quantities of exogenous heat entering the system through both oceanic (see A-Team's brilliant post #435) and atmospheric routes.

So to sum up, I would conclude that large and excess quantities of both exogenous and endogenous heat are present in the arctic.  Some of this heat is escaping the ocean due to mixing and low SIE where it is encountering a warmer and wetter atmosphere.  Perhaps more is escaping the system to space than before the presence of all this excess heat, but I can't imagine that it is anywhere near enough to come close to balancing the equation. 

SIE is at an all-time low and is more vulnerable than at any time perhaps in the history of the human species to a run of good but not exceptional melting weather leading to a blue ocean event in the arctic.







Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: epiphyte on November 01, 2016, 03:53:50 PM
As of late October 2016, large areas of open water remain in the Beaufort, Chukchi, Bering Straits, and East Siberian Sea. The peripheral surface waters are far too warm for ice to stably form — in places some 4º C above the freezing point (-1.9º at surface salinity) — except in the eastern Beaufort and Laptev seas.

The Beaufort, Chukchi and Barents seas are seasonally ice-free now, with all that that implies. We need not wait until 2050, it’s here now. The Beaufort had significant areas of open water by the 1st of May this year and still has not frozen over six months later.

This development in the Chukchi is primarily attributable to to long fetches of open water allowing strong winds to turbulently mix surface with lower warmer water, to large and increasing inputs of warm Pacific Water crossing the 50m x 85km sill at the Bering Strait, teleconnections of an El Nino year and Pacific blob, persistent Arctic Ocean cloud cover reflecting back radiated heat, for which the stage has been set by long term trends in sea ice loss due to global warming and its Arctic amplification.

The 55-day time series below shows sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and sea surface temperature (SST) at 70º N, 170º W (green circle) and the sea ice edge response to conditions (AMSR2 zero ice concentration envelope, yellow line). Solar input has ceased; colder air temperatures are ineffectual at cooling large volumes of mixed water — the meagre heat capacity and low conductivity of air are no match for wind-mixed waters or the recent and continuing surge through the Bering Strait suggested by surface salinity data. However air temperatures themselves have been most anomalously warm, see https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/790579202181390336 (https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/790579202181390336)

The mean October anomaly at the indicated site is 2.3º C above the average sea surface temperature of 4.3º. It’s feasible to obtain these statistics regionally (over each daily expanse of open water) using the AMSR2 mask to restrict a contoured version of the nullschool display, but probably better to retrieve the raw data product RTG-SST/NCEP/NWS or its daily contour map.

Sea ice-dependent marine mammals such as walruses reach feeding grounds by resting on floes carried by wind and current; an embedded sub-animation shows a walrus shaking its head as it fades to near-oblivion on the final frame. On October 24th, the nearest ice to Barrow AK was 448 km to the north. The first few kilometers of that gray/pancake/underwater frazil ice would not support the weight of a gerbil.

Indeed the Arctic Ocean has not frozen north of Svalbard either, which is 730 km farther north than Barrow and just 1050 km from the north pole. The issues here are different for the Barents though, involving the Atlantic Water currents and a close-in continental shelf.

The Arctic Ocean does not need a ‘black swan’ event any more to fall catastrophically below its trend line, a gray swan event will do. That’s weather conditions well within normal variation but ill-timed: sunny weather during early melt season, strong cyclones in August, persistent warm and humid air brought in by lower latitude hurricanes, steady pressure dipoles whose winds expors ice out the Fram, and so on. Here the black swan of September morphs to white by the end of October to represent the Chukchi and Bering Straits are not freezing up as in the past (3rd and 4th animations).

Some very recent scientific articles describe the currents and heat inputs across the Bering Strait and analyse the satellite record in this area. Note though that an article published in October 2016 will have a data cutoff of 2014, but the 37 abstracts at this December’s AGU2016 mentioning the Chukchi or Beaufort bring these up to date..

Emerging trends in the sea state of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas
J Thomson et al  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2016.02.009 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2016.02.009)
http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00345/45590/45202.pdf (http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00345/45590/45202.pdf) free full text

The sea state of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas is controlled by the wind forcing and the amount of ice-free water available to generate surface waves. Clear trends in the annual duration of the open water season and in the extent of the seasonal sea ice minimum suggest that the sea state [ie waves] should be increasing, independent of changes in the wind forcing…. The increase in wave energy may affect both the coastal zones and the remaining summer ice pack, as well as delay the autumn ice-edge advance [to the extent waves hit the edge].

A Synthesis of Year-Round Interdisciplinary Mooring Measurements in the Bering Strait (1990–2014)
RA Woodgate et al
Oceanography | September 2015
http://tos.org/oceanography/assets/docs/28-3_woodgate.pdf (http://tos.org/oceanography/assets/docs/28-3_woodgate.pdf)  free full text

Although the volume transport of the Alaskan Coastal Current (ACC) of  ~0.1 Sv is small compared to the full Bering Strait throughflow of ~0.8 Sv [which in turn is a quarter of Atlantic Waters entering at the Barents at 3.2 Sv],  the ACC is 5ºC warmer and 7 psu fresher than the main waters of the strait, it carries a third of the heat and onequarter of the freshwater flux of the Bering Strait.

Perhaps most dramatic interannual variability is the increase in Bering Strait volume flux from 2001 to 2013 from ~0.7 Sv to ~1.1 Sv, almost a 50% increase in the flow. Since to first order whatever enters the Bering Strait must exit the Chukchi Sea into the Arctic Ocean, this increases ventilation of the Arctic halocline, decreases residence time in the Chukchi by several months, and increases oceanic heat flux.

Since Pacific waters exit the Arctic via the Fram Strait and the CAA at near-freezing temperatures, this allows us to quantify the heat lost from the Pacific waters somewhere in the Chukchi/Arctic system. Including corrections for the ACC and stratification, calendar-mean Bering Strait heat fluxes are 3 6 x 1020 J/ yr 1 (or 10 -20 TW,  comparable to  shortwave solar input to the Chukchi Sea.

This quantity of heat is sufficient to melt 1-2 million square km of 1 m thick ice. Bering Strait heat flux may act as a trigger to create open water upon which the ice albedo feedback can act, and also provides a year-round subsurface source of heat potentially thinning Arctic sea ice, since Pacific summer waters are found in half the Arctic Ocean.

Variability, trends, and predictability of seasonal sea ice retreat and advance in the Chukchi Sea
MC Serreze, AD Crawford, JC Stroeve, AP Barrett, RA Woodgate
J. Geophys. Res. Oceans,121, doi:10.1002/2016JC011977 (2016) blocked access, figures available

As assessed over the period 1979–2014, the date that sea ice retreats to the shelf break (150 m contour) of the Chukchi Sea has a linear trend of 20.7 days per year. The date of seasonal ice advance back tothe shelf break has a steeper trend of about 11.5 days per year, together yielding an increase in the open water period of 80 days.

Based on detrended time series, we ask how inter-annual variability in advance and retreat dates relate to various forcing parameters including radiation fluxes, temperature and wind, and the oceanic heat inflow through the Bering Strait (from in situ moorings). Of all variables considered, the retreat date is most strongly correlated with the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow. Predictability will likely always be limited by the chaotic nature of atmospheric circulation patterns.

Enhanced heat fluxes from the ocean back to the atmosphere in autumn and winter is a major driver of Arctic amplification — the outsized rise in Arctic surface air temperatures relative to the rest of the planet. Whether the effect of ice loss on Arctic amplification extends through a deep enough layer of the troposphere to alter jet stream patterns with impacts on middle-latitude weather is a vibrant area of debate.

GC24A-01: Sea State and Boundary Layer Physics in the Emerging Arctic Ocean
Tuesday, 13 December 2016 Moscone West - 3005

The sea state of the Arctic Ocean is changing. With an increasing retreat of sea ice in the summer months, storms are now more likely to occur over open water, and the result is an increasing trend in both the heights and periods of surface waves in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. The elevated sea state affects, in turn, the refreezing process in the autumn. In 2015, a field campaign collected a comprehensive suite of air-ice-ocean measurements during the autumn freeze-up in the Beaufort Sea, and these measurements are used to investigate the surface wave effects and coupled dynamics.

The most prominent process is the formation of pancake ice, which occurs when surface wave motions disturb newly forming frazil ice. Analysis of a wave event from open water through different stages of a gradually maturing pancake ice cover shows high sensitivity of the surface waves to the types of ice cover. Other cases suggest that waves impact the near-surface heat flux convergence, impacting the ice formation. Hence, there is a two-way interaction between ice and waves. Wave attenuation is captured with adjustment of a viscoelastic parameterization in a wave hindcast model. The results suggest that a fully coupled air-ice-wave model will be necessary to describe the evolution of sea state and ice cover during the Arctic freeze-up.

C31D-02: Regional Upper Ocean Variability and Ocean Heat Losses during the 2015 Autumn Ice-Edge Advance in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas as Observed during the Sea State Field Campaign
Wednesday, 14 December 2016 Moscone West

Some of the fastest Arctic sea ice changes are happening in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas as indicated by a much earlier (by ~49 days over the last 36 years) ice-edge retreat in spring, followed by a much later (by ~43 days) ice-edge advance in autumn (based on 1979-2014 satellite observations). The lengthening of the summer open water season and increasing fetch also mean greater upper ocean heat content and a longer, possibly stronger period of wind/wave forcing on the upper ocean and advancing sea ice cover.

To understand how surface waves and winds affect air-sea-ice interactions and consequently the timing of the autumn ice-edge advance in the emerging Arctic, a Sea State field campaign was conducted aboard NSF’s R/V Sikuliaq from 4 Oct to 5 Nov 2015. During the campaign we obtained contemporaneous in situ observations of the atmospheric boundary layer, ice cover, wave state and upper ocean along a cruise track in and out of the advancing ice cover in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. Vessel-underway (uCTD) profiler was used to collect over 4200 upper ocean profiles during both quiescent and stormy conditions in and outside the ice cover.

Using the uCTD data we describe the spatial variability in upper ocean structure and heat content within the context of its recent past regarding summer open water duration and wind/wave forcing, as well as regional variability in water mass characteristics. We then describe the contemporaneous air-sea-ice observations, including air-ocean energy fluxes and changes in upper ocean heat content during brief periods of ice-edge advance, loitering and retreat to explain the overall space/time evolution of the ice-edge advance in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas during autumn 2015.

A-Team, I can't imagine how someone with your talent for distilling vivid meaning from dry data can possibly afford to spend so much time enlightening the members of this forum - thank you so much for your work. I do hope you're looking into ways to expose it to a much larger audience - You paint the sort of pictures that can do more than say a thousand words... they can refute a thousand lies.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on November 01, 2016, 04:48:12 PM
Dnem,

well said.

The amount of relative atmospheric vs. ocean exogenous heat is about 100:1

current snow cover anomalies in the northern hemisphere are at a new record, there is no residual albedo warming that is coming from the land.  It is all mid-latitude warmth.  A further discovery of the rapidly expanding Hadley Cell in the mid-latitudes is additional indication of the loss of the arctic 'backstop' that allows for rapid expansion of the 30'N desert zone (as well as imported heat from the tropics to mid latitudes)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.agu.org%2Fwildwildscience%2Ffiles%2F2016%2F11%2FScreen-Shot-2016-11-01-at-12.48.13-AM.png&hash=0b4b986e4d8114d1839416877b3d91b6)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: wili on November 01, 2016, 08:56:29 PM
dnem wrote:

"Is the extra heat in the arctic exogenous (imported from lower latitudes) or endogenous (albedo-related or upwelled from warmer water at depth or both)?"

Wherever the heat is originating from, is it being held close to the surface more than it has in the past because of increases in water vapor in the region due to the long and late and widespread ice free areas of the Arctic Ocean?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Watching_from_Canberra on November 01, 2016, 09:44:16 PM
The unknowns include:
Is the extra heat in the arctic exogenous (imported from lower latitudes) or endogenous (albedo-related or upwelled from warmer water at depth or both)?

Either way, it must be resulting from more heat in the system as a whole.  Unless, of course, it's anomalously cold somewhere else?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on November 01, 2016, 10:13:08 PM
Compare Nov 1, 2013 to today
at 850 mb height (about 1,500 meters)

there is about 230% more water vapor at the north pole and the temperature is 9C warmer

Note, the common definition of "arctic air" is an 850mb height with temperatures below 20C  --> https://www.wunderground.com/blog/24hourprof/arctic-air-masses (https://www.wunderground.com/blog/24hourprof/arctic-air-masses)

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on November 01, 2016, 11:27:22 PM
Consider that the arctic has been shedding sea ice at an average annual rate of 13,500 square miles (35,000 square kilometers) since 1979, the equivalent of losing an area larger than the state of Maryland every year.  Given the accumulating effect of this, in terms of increasing area of insolation, one could clearly see how oceanic heating momentum can really build, especially with the additional forcing related to the multi-year trend of staggering increases in arctic air temps, and exogenous moisture influxes, both of these additively block the oceanic heat from escaping.

With this in mind, what if we look at the arctic oceanic heat content as the primary index for a kind of persistent multi-year Arctic El Nino, that fluctuates year to year but maintains a clear trend of heating toward an ever-warmer Nino state?  The westerly wind bursts that push oceanic heat east to create Nino conditions in the central/eastern Pacific are somewhat equivalent to the exogenous atmospheric winds that bring moisture and heat into the arctic - but instead of causing the advection of oceanic heat equatorially across thousand of miles of ocean, they advect atmospheric heat medorinally across thousands of miles of atmosphere.  Of course, as A-Team's points out in his excellent post, the amount of heat advected by ocean currents far exceeds that which the atmosphere advects.  However, our arctic nino atmospheric winds ekman pump up significant heat from depth while weakening the halocline.

All of this helps set into motion a feedback mechanism where warming SSTs (particularly in the Barents-Kara seas) can split the polar vortex and slow/disrupt the jet stream, which in turn allow in more heat, winds and moisture that further increase SSTs.  The corollary in tropical nino exists in how warming equatorial SSTs feedback into the Walker cell, causing it to grow more westerly wind bursts which in turn create even higher SSTs.  With tropical nino we have the vastly deep pacific ocean that comes into play to help reverse the amplification of the Walker cell by absorbing extra upper-ocean heat via the nina half of the oscillation.  Unfortunately, in the Arctic we don't seem to have such an oscillation or buffer, so there is no stoping the train :0

To summarize, I think the oceanic-heat content in the arctic has reached a state where the momentum of its extraordinary heating due to insolation is now more fully expressing itself via the help of medorinal atmospheric transport and advection.  Going forward it seems clear to me that the arctic nino will become the main player in climate changes with the tropical nino feeding into its intensity while also increasing net enthalpy of the earth's climate system primarily by putting more moisture into the atmosphere and thereby trapping more heat.

The following data is for anyone who wants to explore the math around the insolation-derived energy gains in the Arctic/Planetary energy budget - given the average annual 35,000 square kilometers extent loss since 1979.

Amount of Solar Energy Received Per Day - Per Unit Area by Season and Latitude
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on November 02, 2016, 04:14:57 AM
From Neven's comparison page, https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic1101 (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic1101), this year has a lot more blue water on the Pacific side of the Arctic Basin than on any other 01 November in the satellite record:
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 02, 2016, 06:11:20 AM
Cross posted this because of the importance.

As ocean temps rise, the Arctic will be affected more and more. An army of 3800 robots that can dive and drift and dive again, and then float back to the surface and communicate via satellite could really help understand how the oceans are warming. A program called Argo is already doing just that.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on November 02, 2016, 07:16:06 AM
Agree, Tigertown, that it is vitally important to deploy more buoys &/or robot divers to better characterise the air, ice, snow and water parameters throughout the Arctic Basin.


This topic has been discussed in some detail on the "What the Buoys are Telling" thread, beginning with http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,327.msg90613.html#msg90613 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,327.msg90613.html#msg90613) (#1184).

See, in particular,
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,327.msg90678.html#msg90678 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,327.msg90678.html#msg90678) (#1194 - on the Argo program you refer to).


Yes, a large-scale program such as this should definitely be implemented by next year's melt season!

Is there anyone on here who can assist in making this happen?  :)

Anyone in the Argo collaboration who knows of Argo's Arctic plans? Can push for more monitoring there?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 02, 2016, 01:01:06 PM
Light winds from the Atlantic side cross the Pole, picked up -1,8C from 87,5N, c. 155 miles from pole. Most cold winds go down to Siberia splaining some of the snow anomaly.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 02, 2016, 02:21:47 PM
Agree, Tigertown, that it is vitally important to deploy more buoys &/or robot divers to better characterise the air, ice, snow and water parameters throughout the Arctic Basin.


This topic has been discussed in some detail on the "What the Buoys are Telling" thread, beginning with


Yes, a large-scale program such as this should definitely be implemented by next year's melt season!

Is there anyone on here who can assist in making this happen?  :)

Anyone in the Argo collaboration who knows of Argo's Arctic plans? Can push for more monitoring there?

Sorry, didn't find your post there when I did a search prior to posting.

I don't know if there are plans to expand the program or not, but as the system is, a good deal can be learned about the heat that is reaching great depths and the currents carrying the heat to the Arctic and Antarctic.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: abbottisgone on November 02, 2016, 02:22:44 PM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Focean.dmi.dk%2Farctic%2Fplots%2FmeanTarchive%2FmeanT_2012.png&hash=481a22253b2fa26b708e4e0db8602dee)

2012 didn't show much abnormal temperatures: it was a true anomalie shall we say!

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Focean.dmi.dk%2Farctic%2Fplots%2FmeanTarchive%2FmeanT_2016.png&hash=ed3bc1964e488b5d83cfae05c243a1bc)

2016, if you check the temp records at dmi for past 80N, are wacko in comparison to all other years.

Curious factors are emerging.... something must bind them however.

Should we just call it advection???
(I should possibly modify my comment by saying 2007

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Focean.dmi.dk%2Farctic%2Fplots%2FmeanTarchive%2FmeanT_2007.png&hash=9e5861715da3787676b8ffbcc0548bee)

shares a common path in the latter days yet the preconditioning seems quite different,... obviously 2012 is wacked tho!)

 (2009 also seems close...)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: charles_oil on November 02, 2016, 02:24:19 PM
Do we know if the degree day freezing / degree day thawing charts from the late Andrew Slater's site will be updated - or replicated ?

With the recent high temps they would be an interesting graphic.

http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/ (http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: abbottisgone on November 02, 2016, 03:08:52 PM
slow wing: may I say that wrangel island seems to be the pinch point?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 02, 2016, 06:33:49 PM
Hat tip to Colorado Bob for finding this.  Reposted link from Neven's blog:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2016GL070526/abstract (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2016GL070526/abstract)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 02, 2016, 06:35:21 PM
Do we know if the degree day freezing / degree day thawing charts from the late Andrew Slater's site will be updated - or replicated ?

With the recent high temps they would be an interesting graphic.

http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/ (http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/)
If we can get access to his data and on-going changes, I think any one of a number of us here can sort out how to do that.  I'm also sure any number of us would be interested in seeing that.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 02, 2016, 06:58:18 PM
Hat tip to Colorado Bob for finding this.  Reposted link from Neven's blog:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2016GL070526/abstract (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2016GL070526/abstract)

And thanks jdallen for bringing the link here. I've reduced the number of sites I follow intensely reading most comments too so might have missed this one. This looks like what's up in the 2040s if not earlier.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: werther on November 02, 2016, 09:41:14 PM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FDMI%2520Temp%252080N%252020161102_zpsgdanpd0t.jpg&hash=cbe7193883dfd88902a05dc40145e6bb)

This is getting progressively worse…
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on November 02, 2016, 09:55:29 PM
I can't believe that thing went up again. The current temperatures are  September temperatures. What's next, melting? Has that happened before, in November?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on November 02, 2016, 10:06:13 PM
In 1996 there was a somewhat similar jump. Here is the temperatures and sea extent for 1996.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: werther on November 02, 2016, 10:33:49 PM
Yes, Arch,

But that 'jump' appeared on the background of some already steady freeze during October. This time, good ice-producing freeze has been limited to a few days until now.
And the DMI graph tells us little about the situation in the Beaufort-, Chukchi and ESS seas.
The 'no refreeze' anomaly out there parallels North of 80 degrees temperature weirdness.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on November 02, 2016, 10:52:49 PM
That DMI graph is only for >80 degrees N, that is, a 10-degree circle around the North Pole.

The temperature bumps in the graph come from weather patterns that are easily identified from looking at nullschool:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-35.44,93.43,1444 (https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-35.44,93.43,1444)

The current bump is due to warmer southerly winds heading into the 10-degree circle from Svalbard and through the Fram Strait. The nullschool screenshot has has already been posted above at #482
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1611.msg92869.html#msg92869 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1611.msg92869.html#msg92869)

Nullschool also displays the current temperatures in, e.g., the Beaufort-, Chukchi and ESS seas.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on November 02, 2016, 10:56:10 PM
All too true werther. I just needed some kind of context and that's the best I found.

In 1996, from Nov 1 to maximum extent the ice grew about 5.8 Mkm2. If this season followed the same pattern of growth that would put this year maximum at 12.9 Mkm2. Record low by 1.2Mkm2.

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on November 02, 2016, 11:29:19 PM
Here we are in November still sailing into uncharted waters in the peripheral seas of the Arctic Ocean.

This post provides a quantitative summary of the open water situation for the Chukchi, Beaufort and East Siberian seas from 01 April - 01 Nov 2016 with an eye to calculating solar energy absorbed by open water (not ice) during the last seven months.

The future has arrived for these regions of the Arctic (not mention the Barents) — they’re already ‘open seasonally’ (75% of potential maximal area, 3 months or more of summer heating season).

A newspaper article last week in the WaPo quotes scientists to the effect “it doesn’t count” unless the Arctic Ocean is 100% open 100% of the year, not to worry until 2100 if even then.

That is a terrible misunderstanding. The Arctic is already failing regionally at its job of planetary refrigerator:

The first image below shows the expanded study area relative to the Chukchi as defined by  Serreze et al 2016. It lies north of the Bering Strait, bounded by the 150º E (nicking the New Siberian Islands), to the east by 120º W (taking in the Beaufort Gyre at Banks Island) and to the north by the 75th parallel (incorporating the 150 m continental shelf isobath).

Perovitch measured solar energy received on the ground in the central Beaufort for the entire 1998 season, some 92% of this energy is absorbed by open water; Serreze et al provide a very accurate measurement of Chukchi WGS84 area which is fully transferable to high resolution UHH AMSR2 determinations of daily ice edge, as explained in the lower right of the figure.

The second image shows that solar input peaks as expected on the solstice (wavy red line, w/m2 scale on right) but varies greatly according to cloud cover. Open water in this area peaks considerably later (blue bars, millions of km2 scale on left). Consequently, solar heat absorbed by open water (sum of daily product of solar input x open water) reaches its maximum at an intermediate time (regularized yellow curve, area underneath representing total heat input). Here however we don’t know how cloudiness in 2016 compared to the year of measurement.

As the Arctic hasn’t had significant solar input for months, clearly solar cannot immediately explain the current open water anomaly — the massive and unexpected delay of refreezing which shows no sign of abating. However it’s very difficult to disentangle all the feedback processes and their phasing in the solar, ocean, atmosphere and ice system.

The animation runs for 215 days. Land is blocked out as yellow, CAA and Aleutian waters are light blue (not considered), and the central Arctic is grayed out. Ice concentrations are retained (blue to white). Only the darkest blue (zero sea ice concentration) is considered open water during the pixel counting process and conversion to area. These conventions are necessary to reduce file size to within forum bounds. The attached spreadsheet txt file provides the raw data used to make the graphs. [Despite that, so far forum software declines to load it...]
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on November 02, 2016, 11:36:28 PM
Looking at my favorite extent forecast source - the regional amsr2 graphs - most seas reach full extent during the winter peak regardless of what went on during refreeze. These include the Kara, ESS, Hudson, Beaufort and Chukchi, the CAA and the CAB of course. Others reach the same typical extent during peak season, these include the Greenland Sea and Baffin. This means that extent records are mostly set on the Barents, Bering and especially Okhotsk, where the numbers seem somewhat random and therefore hard to predict. I wouldn't count on this season to produce a record low extent by a large margin. On the other hand, I would expect record low thickness/volume (and record high ice salinity) by a significant margin due to the lateness and weakness of the refreeze season. This may or may not show up on PIOMAS, but will almost certainly affect the 2017 melting season.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: JimboOmega on November 02, 2016, 11:45:27 PM
Looking at my favorite extent forecast source - the regional amsr2 graphs - most seas reach full extent during the winter peak regardless of what went on during refreeze. These include the Kara, ESS, Hudson, Beaufort and Chukchi, the CAA and the CAB of course. Others reach the same typical extent during peak season, these include the Greenland Sea and Baffin. This means that extent records are mostly set on the Barents, Bering and especially Okhotsk, where the numbers seem somewhat random and therefore hard to predict. I wouldn't count on this season to produce a record low extent by a large margin. On the other hand, I would expect record low thickness/volume (and record high ice salinity) by a significant margin due to the lateness and weakness of the refreeze season. This may or may not show up on PIOMAS, but will almost certainly affect the 2017 melting season.

Historically the peak extent has not had much variation, it's true.  Watching the 2012 refreeze was quite interesting, as it rapidly moved towards the normal.

But the question is if this is really an atypical year where the current amount of open water makes a difference that persists in some way into the next year.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: be cause on November 03, 2016, 12:23:01 AM
Thank you A-team .. my ringside seat just gets better and better .Your ballet of ice has me mesmerised !
The last few frames help show the damage being done to the ice by the recent and current weather .. 
and another last hurra ! for big block :)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 03, 2016, 12:57:10 AM
From the Arctic Sea Ice Blog. Pertinent to current situation in the Arctic.
This year has been an outstanding year for ocean heat. Why shouldn't it be reflected in the Arctic?

" the Monterey researcher believes these models have seriously underestimated some key melting processes. In particular, Professor Maslowski is adamant that models need to incorporate more realistic representations of the way warm water is moving into the Arctic basin from the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.

"My claim is that the global climate models underestimate the amount of heat delivered to the sea ice by oceanic advection," Professor Maslowski said."

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/06/ocean-heat-flux.html

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Blizzard92 on November 03, 2016, 05:35:30 AM
Updated monthly rankings [38 = warmest]... (from https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/793961158688415745 (https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/793961158688415745))

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on November 03, 2016, 06:18:22 AM
Meanwhile we are over 500k km2 below 2012 for Arctic and now matching 1986 for lowest extent in Antarctica...

And we are still heading strong... into the unknown. SIE is now 670k km2 below 2012, 1.1mln below 2007, and 1.5mln below 2015. Yes, it's obvious that in a few days/weeks the refreeze will resume and get back to "normal", but the new dynamics in the region has been set and we can only hope that there are negative feedback mechanisms that can potentially restore the balance. I wonder how long it would take for our race to realize that once we transition from the unprecedented to the abrupt, it's virtually game over regardless of your location or social status. Does anyone else have a gut feeling that the life as we know it is about to change for all of us? Or am I nuts? And I'm not talking 2100. More like 2020 the latest. Can the global economy take a big impact of a sudden climate change and keep going as usual? 
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: etienne on November 03, 2016, 06:18:47 AM
Updated monthly rankings [38 = warmest]...

Thank you, very good graph. Looks like 2002 would be a turning point.

When looking at the extent graphs, the turning point seems to be more around 2005-2006. Probably inertia in the system.

Etienne
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: abbottisgone on November 03, 2016, 07:30:14 AM
Meanwhile we are over 500k km2 below 2012 for Arctic and now matching 1986 for lowest extent in Antarctica...

And we are still heading strong... into the unknown. SIE is now 670k km2 below 2012, 1.1mln below 2007, and 1.5mln below 2015. Yes, it's obvious that in a few days/weeks the refreeze will resume and get back to "normal", but the new dynamics in the region has been set and we can only hope that there are negative feedback mechanisms that can potentially restore the balance. I wonder how long it would take for our race to realize that once we transition from the unprecedented to the abrupt, it's virtually game over regardless of your location or social status. Does anyone else have a gut feeling that the life as we know it is about to change for all of us? Or am I nuts? And I'm not talking 2100. More like 2020 the latest. Can the global economy take a big impact of a sudden climate change and keep going as usual?
Me, yes: basically I hear you.

The multi year sea ice is falling apart and, symbolism being aside, it means real politik.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: vigilius on November 03, 2016, 08:29:06 AM
I expect everyone here has seen this, but FWIW-

"The Arctic Ocean seems to have forgotten it's supposed to be freezing up right now."
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-sea-ice-slow-growth-20838 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-sea-ice-slow-growth-20838)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: NeilT on November 03, 2016, 11:44:57 AM
In 1996 there was a somewhat similar jump. Here is the temperatures and sea extent for 1996.

Archimid, thanks for that link to the beta NSIDC resource.  I've been looking for something like that for years, the CT one has colours too similar to each other in older years to help.

What I've been trying to say, for a while now, is that there is a 10 year cycle with a mid point 5 year cycle, roughly, going on here.

I don't have time to do the images right now as I'm sick and late for work (not a good combination), but here is the gist.

Take everything out but 1992 - 1996 and copy the image.
Do it again for 2002 - 2006
And again for 2012 - 2016

If you ignore everything but the re-freeze you see a pattern emerging.  The sudden step sideways on the re-freeze leading to the next season with anomalously weak and thinner ice.  Also you see the bump is moving earlier and larger.

If you then select only 1996/7, 2006/7 and 2016, you see a pattern emerging which, if repeated  a third time, will drive the ice almost to extinction in 2017.

Have to head to work now.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on November 03, 2016, 01:58:14 PM
Does anyone else have a gut feeling that the life as we know it is about to change for all of us? Or am I nuts? And I'm not talking 2100. More like 2020 the latest. Can the global economy take a big impact of a sudden climate change and keep going as usual? 

I think the chance for catastrophic destruction is less than 50% but higher than 10%. That's too high, way too high for comfort. But I also think that if the arctic does recover in the next year, then things might flip for a little while. It is likely that the oceans will soon flip to a cooler state and we enter  a warming hiatus for a few years. That will buy us time. Maybe Geoengineering projects get underway that save the Arctic sea ice, prolonging abrupt change further into the future. But we need the ice to grow. If it doesn't recover we need an extremely mild melting season.

We might be pushing our luck too hard.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 03, 2016, 02:46:46 PM
The oceans can't flip anymore. That's the problem now.For the most part, the depths have heated . For the waters to heat more, everything else has to also, to stay in balance.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on November 03, 2016, 03:23:18 PM
The oceans can't flip anymore. That's the problem now.For the most part, the depths have heated . For the waters to heat more, everything else has to also, to stay in balance.


I still have hope for cold reserves on the deep oceans and ice melt from glaciers. Maybe the earth lost a lot of heat to space during the last el niño. Also for what is worth, the sun has been very quiet. Maybe that's enough for a respite.   But as you say, the oceans look very hot. It also seems as if the deeper you get the hotter it gets.

The image attached is from: https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/ (https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/)


Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: etienne on November 03, 2016, 03:24:53 PM
I think the chance for catastrophic destruction is less than 50% but higher than 10%.

Hello,

Catastrophic is very subjective. Was Sandy a catastrophy ? Is drough in California a catastrophy ? Is sea level rise in Norfolk VA a catastrophy ? In 2008, there were many debates on peak oil, and somebody said something smart : that peak oil is a slow worsening of the living conditions, as long as you live in a rich country and you're able to keep your job, you don't feel it too much. I believe that climate change is the same, if you're lucky, you can just forget about it and keep going.

Best regards,

Etienne
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Blizzard92 on November 03, 2016, 03:47:25 PM
I think the full version may be too large for the forums, but I've updated the Arctic mean surface air temperature plot from January through October --> https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/794187142251429888 (https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/794187142251429888)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on November 03, 2016, 04:17:34 PM
I guess that the are  more objective words than "catastrophic destruction". "Tipping point",  "paradigm shift" or "state change" are probably better to describe what will happen after the first BOE, but that does not qualifies if the change will be positive or negative.  I think catastrophic destruction is a more accurate description, even if it is scary.

Quote
Was Sandy a catastrophy ?

To those directly affected, yes. Globally no.

Quote
Is drough in California a catastrophy ?


Not yet, but once the point is reached where demand outstrips supply things start to change. There are so me low hanging fruit water savings that can be done to postpone catastrophe, but those are being used now. There could be a point where it becomes locally catastrophic in less than a year.

Quote
Is sea level rise in Norfolk VA a catastrophy ?

Not yet, but a sudden melt pulse could change that in a matter of days. Sea level rise is on the milimeter scale only globally. Locally, the sky is the limit.


Quote
I believe that climate change is the same, if you're lucky, you can just forget about it and keep going.

Climate change is like that if there was no BOE until 2050, temperatures hit 2C by 2100 and sea level rises by a meter in a century. But if those events all happen within the next 10 years, they will change your life regardless of who you are.

I think off it as a highly connected network. if you remove some nodes, the network remains connected specially if there is replacements of nodes or connections. But if you remove too many nodes it stops being connected.

Because of this I think the people with the most money will lose the most, but life loss will be equitable for all, determined only by the geography of the planet and the roll of the dice.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: effbeh on November 03, 2016, 07:30:00 PM
Does anyone else have a gut feeling that the life as we know it is about to change for all of us? Or am I nuts? And I'm not talking 2100. More like 2020 the latest. Can the global economy take a big impact of a sudden climate change and keep going as usual?

The 2016 SIE curve makes me feel uneasy.  Can't put a finger on it, but something just feels wrong.  The low maximum.  The headstart until June that seemingly was back to almost normal later.  And now a highly anomalous refreeze season.   I wonder what the start of a game-changing collapse of the artic ice sheet would look like. Increasingly erratic and anomalous development of the melt season would be a good bet. 
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on November 03, 2016, 07:58:38 PM
Looking at my favorite extent forecast source - the regional amsr2 graphs - most seas reach full extent during the winter peak regardless of what went on during refreeze. These include the Kara, ESS, Hudson, Beaufort and Chukchi, the CAA and the CAB of course. Others reach the same typical extent during peak season, these include the Greenland Sea and Baffin. This means that extent records are mostly set on the Barents, Bering and especially Okhotsk, where the numbers seem somewhat random and therefore hard to predict. I wouldn't count on this season to produce a record low extent by a large margin. On the other hand, I would expect record low thickness/volume (and record high ice salinity) by a significant margin due to the lateness and weakness of the refreeze season. This may or may not show up on PIOMAS, but will almost certainly affect the 2017 melting season.

true as to extent but in extremis the volume could end up at something between 60 and 70% of what's normal which will have it's impact next year when it comes to the amount of energy it will take to melt the "reminder"
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 03, 2016, 10:17:04 PM
NSIDC has gone from 7.08M km2 on 10-31 to 7.342M km2 on 11-02. Most of this appears to have been been in the Beaufort, though you can see little patches elsewhere. A little narrow stretch of shore in the Kara Sea is starting to get a foothold.

I don't know if this serves much of a purpose at the moment other than as a curiosity, but here it is anyway.  9-18 til now
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on November 03, 2016, 10:46:26 PM
Meanwhile we are 773k km2 below previous record low (2012), 1.2mln km2 below 2007 and 1.57mln km2 below 2015 for Oct 2nd.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on November 04, 2016, 12:31:37 AM
Hat tip to Colorado Bob for finding this.  Reposted link from Neven's blog:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2016GL070526/abstract (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2016GL070526/abstract)

full text found here (pdf) https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Koji_Yamazaki2/publication/308009569_On_the_atmospheric_response_experiment_to_a_Blue_Arctic_Ocean_Climate_Response_to_Blue_Arctic_Ocean/links/57d8a0aa08ae5f03b498608f.pdf?origin=publication_list (https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Koji_Yamazaki2/publication/308009569_On_the_atmospheric_response_experiment_to_a_Blue_Arctic_Ocean_Climate_Response_to_Blue_Arctic_Ocean/links/57d8a0aa08ae5f03b498608f.pdf?origin=publication_list)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on November 04, 2016, 02:20:12 AM
 :-[
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on November 04, 2016, 05:57:10 AM
Data from Earth System Research Laboratory
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Sleepy on November 04, 2016, 06:33:38 AM
I think the full version may be too large for the forums, but I've updated the Arctic mean surface air temperature plot from January through October --> https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/794187142251429888 (https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/794187142251429888)
~4MB is too much, but there's no need for that size if you wish to post it here. Attached is a quick&dirty recording from your tweet at ~200kB. Somewhat larger than that would be nice and readable.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 04, 2016, 06:39:38 AM
Re:Ice Shieldz               I think the moisture is everywhere. I just went to check on http://floodlist.com/news  so as to update the Article links thread, and was just completely flabbergasted as there was just too much to post. Spain, Columbia, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Honduras, El Salvador, Haiti, Papua New Guinea, Vietnam, Egypt, U.S.A., Argentina, Indonesia, Ukraine, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Romania, Albania, Greece, Thailand, Mexico, and Australia. Most of these were major floods that multiple people died in. Also, two Typhoons hit the Philippines. Chaba caused flooding in many parts of Asia and Matthew in the U.S.. Over what time period, you ask? All of this happened within October, 2016. If I wanted to cover September, it would take another paragraph. I am lost for words as to how to conclude this post, and will let each do so for themselves.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Sleepy on November 04, 2016, 11:20:15 AM
Tuesday via nullschool.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Blizzard92 on November 04, 2016, 04:04:17 PM
Thanks Sleepy for posting!

I've reversed the temperature rankings on this heat map to be a bit more clear (http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/ (http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/)...
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on November 04, 2016, 04:05:44 PM
Here are some comparisons of Oct-Nov refreezing for 2013-2016. The first figure tracks open water in the Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS and Bering Strait region (as defined in a previous post) using UHH AMSR2, in units of millions of sq km.

Below that, four hycom 30-day runs for temperature, salinity, sea surface height and ice thickness are synched at 2x size. The prediction component goes out to November 11th and suggest considerable closing in of the ice pack: 666,000 sq km of open water still on that date (which translates to 44208 deepest blue pixels on the AMSR2 product, not shown).

If this event is associated in part with anomalously higher inflows through the Bering Strait, we might ask why the Pacific flows into the Arctic Ocean to begin with. According a comprehensive 2015 review by R Woodgate, the lead scientist monitoring Bering Strait influx (at the A3 mooring, data retrieved once a year), nobody knows. It’s often attributed to persistent low pressure over the Aleutians however.

Lower air pressure does in fact result in higher sea levels: an decrease in air pressure of 1 hPa, a slight decrease from the average air pressure of 1013 hPa, raises water level by 1 cm. Air pressure routinely varies between 950 and 1050 hPa during a year, so the expected variation in sea level amounts to +63 cm and -37 cm around mean sea level.

However sea level at a particular location is not only affected by the local air pressure above but also by other factors, so a simple correlation is rarely observed. For example, the sea surface on the Baltic can slope significantly both from north to south and from west to east. A dipole of deep low pressure passages over the Bothnian Bay, combined with high pressure over the southern Baltic, can lead sea level differences of up to 2 m across a moderate distance, according to an account at Sweden’s SMHI.

The data below do not support the notion of higher sea levels south of the Bering Strait driving anomalous volumes of warmer Pacific Water through the Strait over this time frame. However tides and winds from the south can also affect the sverdrups passing over the very shallow sill. Large variations in flux can occur within a few hours; the 21-year mean and std for the Bering Strait are provided in Serreze 2016.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: aslan on November 04, 2016, 09:39:40 PM
For October, there is an interesting point. According to the reanalysis, IRs radiations to space where not exceptionally high. This is an argument for a strong feedback from water vapor and clouds which insulate the Arctic. As said, moisture is everywhere. Advection of warm air and water was probably a factor also. But datas show that Arctic is not radiating energy back to space, despite polar night and warmer than average temperature. Difference with 2007 is stark.

2016 upward long wave radiation at top of atmosphere (OLRs for short):

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg15.hostingpics.net%2Fpics%2F26911085682456830814553.png&hash=a499c63fb5e3af40d58351b03ba0fe22)

2012:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg15.hostingpics.net%2Fpics%2F5535192012.png&hash=9311e5c4a84a99428a2e780c009f42b1)

2007:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg15.hostingpics.net%2Fpics%2F8228452007.png&hash=667b505900b2de585c4be78ba3f1c8a9)

And the trend:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg15.hostingpics.net%2Fpics%2F168040climindex85682456830814317.png&hash=798d999311fe8d22a5fbb7311239b424)

2016 is high, but it's nothing special given the record warmth and record low sea ice extent.

This is in agreement with weather stations. October was warm, but cloudy with nearly all the time a Nh = 8 (low cloud cover):

http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=21982&decoded=yes&ndays=50&ano=2016&mes=11&day=04&hora=18 (http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=21982&decoded=yes&ndays=50&ano=2016&mes=11&day=04&hora=18)

For the monthly mean temperature of October, Ostrov Vrangela broke its old record (2007) by a wide margin of 2.3°C! The monthly Tm was even warmer than one daily record high...

Same here, but sea ice reached Ostrov Kotel'nyj in the end of the month, so the feedback was shut down and temperatures cooled:

http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=21432&ano=2016&mes=11&day=4&hora=18&min=0&ndays=50 (http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=21432&ano=2016&mes=11&day=4&hora=18&min=0&ndays=50)

This does not bode well. Arctic is probably not loosing a lot of energy currently. So perhaps the sluggish growth will not be compensated by a lower heat content, which is bad new for 2017. And with current order of magnitude of heat transport, Arctic is probably able to sustain itself trough the polar night without sea ice. We are one month and half before solstice, and sea ice is still not able to grow on the Pacific side. For the latest point, there is still a bit of time, but after a blue summer, it seems likely that clouds and water vapor will be able to insulate Arctic through the polar night.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on November 04, 2016, 11:15:21 PM
 - Global warming is a myth!!! Look it's not particularly warm at all! Very average for summer ;D
 - Yeah...Except it's November 4th! And those are in Celsius! :o
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on November 05, 2016, 01:47:29 AM
I'm sure i speak for many here in thanking Zack Labe (@Blizzard92) for all the work he's doing.

Recently on twitter, Zack offered a reality check for those who, like myself, put forth conclusions about how lack of Barents–Kara sea-ice are driving some of the changes we're currently seeing in the Arctic and related areas.

In a dialog with Anthony Maseillo, Zack draws attention to a number of studies suggesting the cold in Eurasia is more likely due to internal variability in the signal rather than Barents–Kara sea-ice connection.  This variability expresses itself as a high pressure over the Barents–Kara Sea and a downstream trough (full text: http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2820.epdf?author_access_token=oEjnyfdS1I_kzcuXv2NK0dRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0MXAtfUgKiCfZeyzIVnl24D1uNsd7q9wdYS58Zy6RLG0QHcjXMLCSU3f-_X3kNq-mwBLh0JvmiMyyoVk-OPvhnj (http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2820.epdf?author_access_token=oEjnyfdS1I_kzcuXv2NK0dRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0MXAtfUgKiCfZeyzIVnl24D1uNsd7q9wdYS58Zy6RLG0QHcjXMLCSU3f-_X3kNq-mwBLh0JvmiMyyoVk-OPvhnj))

Anthony thinks that expanding Hadley Cells and its effect on wave trains has something to do with it.  To which Zack replied that folks in his group are doing research related to that.  What a marvelously complex and interconnected climate system we live in, so much to learn, 8)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 05, 2016, 04:56:26 AM
The Arctic has had a few days in a row of century plus gains per JAXA. It sure makes the graphs look better.  NSIDC  has been showing strong gains in the Arctic, posting 7.551M for the 3rd of Nov.

Meanwhile, the Antarctic, where the SIE  had been making nominal drops everyday after the early September scare, all of a sudden took another nosedive today, loosing 230k+ in one day.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: epiphyte on November 05, 2016, 06:00:06 AM
For October, there is an interesting point. According to the reanalysis, IRs radiations to space where not exceptionally high. This is an argument for a strong feedback from water vapor and clouds which insulate the Arctic. As said, moisture is everywhere.


Next stop; Venus :-(
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on November 05, 2016, 07:23:48 AM
For October, there is an interesting point. According to the reanalysis, IRs radiations to space where not exceptionally high. This is an argument for a strong feedback from water vapor and clouds which insulate the Arctic. As said, moisture is everywhere. Advection of warm air and water was probably a factor also. But datas show that Arctic is not radiating energy back to space, despite polar night and warmer than average temperature. Difference with 2007 is stark.

2016 upward long wave radiation at top of atmosphere (OLRs for short):

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg15.hostingpics.net%2Fpics%2F26911085682456830814553.png&hash=a499c63fb5e3af40d58351b03ba0fe22)

2012:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg15.hostingpics.net%2Fpics%2F5535192012.png&hash=9311e5c4a84a99428a2e780c009f42b1)

2007:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg15.hostingpics.net%2Fpics%2F8228452007.png&hash=667b505900b2de585c4be78ba3f1c8a9)

And the trend:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg15.hostingpics.net%2Fpics%2F168040climindex85682456830814317.png&hash=798d999311fe8d22a5fbb7311239b424)

2016 is high, but it's nothing special given the record warmth and record low sea ice extent.

This is in agreement with weather stations. October was warm, but cloudy with nearly all the time a Nh = 8 (low cloud cover):

http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=21982&decoded=yes&ndays=50&ano=2016&mes=11&day=04&hora=18 (http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=21982&decoded=yes&ndays=50&ano=2016&mes=11&day=04&hora=18)

For the monthly mean temperature of October, Ostrov Vrangela broke its old record (2007) by a wide margin of 2.3°C! The monthly Tm was even warmer than one daily record high...

Same here, but sea ice reached Ostrov Kotel'nyj in the end of the month, so the feedback was shut down and temperatures cooled:

http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=21432&ano=2016&mes=11&day=4&hora=18&min=0&ndays=50 (http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=21432&ano=2016&mes=11&day=4&hora=18&min=0&ndays=50)

This does not bode well. Arctic is probably not loosing a lot of energy currently. So perhaps the sluggish growth will not be compensated by a lower heat content, which is bad new for 2017. And with current order of magnitude of heat transport, Arctic is probably able to sustain itself trough the polar night without sea ice. We are one month and half before solstice, and sea ice is still not able to grow on the Pacific side. For the latest point, there is still a bit of time, but after a blue summer, it seems likely that clouds and water vapor will be able to insulate Arctic through the polar night.
1. I see a lot of red in 2016 over Beaufort sea and Chukchi seas, which makes a lot of sense.
2. What if 2007 red blob was caused by exceptionally clear skies that year's October in that region? It seems the anomaly in the series, not saying that you cherrypicked but that you might have picked a cherry (unadvertedly).
3. Granted that the weather pattern has favored cloudy skies precisely in the open half of the Arctic, and that this in part explains the unexceptional lwr you show. But it does not seem to me that is going to catastrophically put us at the other side of the hill. Not this year. Just look at Hycom, which by the way, it is predicting the advance of refreeze waves really well.
Why choosing to forget that winter is coming. In December the extent will be back within range, although in the lowest limit with the chronic delay in the Atlantic side and this year Chukchi and later Bering (will it have much or any ice this year?).
More worrying to me is the spatial configuration of the second and multi- year ice, much of it can be rapidly lost if the Beaufort drift-transpolar drift-Fram export sets in motion as usually does in winter. And the sustained pulse of Pacific water thru the Bering, this will not help in a warm summer. We might see a wide opening of the Pacific side next year again.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on November 05, 2016, 07:59:31 AM
Comparing SSTs with 2015, note the much higher temps in Bering sea, even when the Pacific in general is cooler this year. The Bering current is neatly revealed as it was a flowing river.
The Atlantic Ocean seems as warm, and the temperatures in Barentsz and Kara are even warmer!
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on November 05, 2016, 08:41:16 AM
A-Team thanks for you excellent and eye-opening post.
I found this link from R. Woodgate and colleagues which adds more details for those like me who want to explore more on Bering Strait flows.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/HLD/Bstrait/bstrait.html (http://psc.apl.washington.edu/HLD/Bstrait/bstrait.html)

For October, there is an interesting point. According to the reanalysis, IRs radiations to space where not exceptionally high. This is an argument for a strong feedback from water vapor and clouds which insulate the Arctic.
...
This does not bode well. Arctic is probably not loosing a lot of energy currently. So perhaps the sluggish growth will not be compensated by a lower heat content, which is bad new for 2017. And with current order of magnitude of heat transport, Arctic is probably able to sustain itself trough the polar night without sea ice. We are one month and half before solstice, and sea ice is still not able to grow on the Pacific side. For the latest point, there is still a bit of time, but after a blue summer, it seems likely that clouds and water vapor will be able to insulate Arctic through the polar night.
Your post is very interesting and worrying but I think it will be a very long time before the Arctic manages to survive the whole winter with no sea ice, even in the peripheral seas and even after a blue ocean event. Yes, after a blue ocean the freezing season will be much shorter, the ice thinner and probability of complete melt the year after that will greatly be increased. The clouds and water vapor serve as positive feedback to advanced summer melt by inhibiting winter growth. But lasting through the whole polar night with open water is much more difficult, and I think requires some other mechanism.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Sleepy on November 05, 2016, 09:17:54 AM
Persistent shift of the Arctic polar vortex towards the Eurasian continent in recent decades.
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3136.html (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3136.html)
Quote
The wintertime Arctic stratospheric polar vortex has weakened over the past three decades, and consequently cold surface air from high latitudes is now more likely to move into the middle latitudes1, 2, 3, 4, 5. However, it is not known if the location of the polar vortex has also experienced a persistent change in response to Arctic climate change and whether any changes in the vortex position have implications for the climate system. Here, through the analysis of various data sets and model simulations, we show that the Arctic polar vortex shifted persistently towards the Eurasian continent and away from North America in February over the past three decades. This shift is found to be closely related to the enhanced zonal wavenumber-1 waves in response to Arctic sea-ice loss, particularly over the Barents–Kara seas (BKS). Increased snow cover over the Eurasian continent may also have contributed to the shift. Our analysis reveals that the vortex shift induces cooling over some parts of the Eurasian continent and North America which partly offsets the tropospheric climate warming there in the past three decades. The potential vortex shift in response to persistent sea-ice loss in the future6, 7, and its associated climatic impact, deserve attention to better constrain future climate changes.
My bold.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 05, 2016, 10:35:56 AM
The 80N DMI temps are just absurd.  I'm at a loss for words.   :o

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Sleepy on November 05, 2016, 11:42:11 AM
80°N temps can be even more absurd if the forecasts for Tuesday comes through.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on November 05, 2016, 11:45:33 AM
just a little heads up for everyone:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vj1G9gqhkYA (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vj1G9gqhkYA)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: aslan on November 05, 2016, 11:47:07 AM
1. I see a lot of red in 2016 over Beaufort sea and Chukchi seas, which makes a lot of sense.

Yep, it's logical that 2016 is still radiating to space a lot of energy. Even with clouds and water vapor temperatures are still really high. For the world, OLRs should not increase, remaining around 240 W/m² but locally and at times this will probably be not the case.

Quote
2. What if 2007 red blob was caused by exceptionally clear skies that year's October in that region? It seems the anomaly in the series, not saying that you cherrypicked but that you might have picked a cherry (unadvertedly).

Yep agree, 2007 was really an outlier. But the point is that 2016 is not loosing as much energy as we could expected given such low sea ice and such high temperatures. This is why I compared 2016 and 2007. Before this year, 2007 was the warmest October and lowest sea ice extent. Lacking precedent can make such comparison a bit artificial (perhaps also 2007 is not representative). Nevertheless, this shows that 2016 is not loosing a lot of energy, which is worrying.

Quote
3. Granted that the weather pattern has favored cloudy skies precisely in the open half of the Arctic, and that this in part explains the unexceptional lwr you show. But it does not seem to me that is going to catastrophically put us at the other side of the hill. Not this year. Just look at Hycom, which by the way, it is predicting the advance of refreeze waves really well.
Why choosing to forget that winter is coming. In December the extent will be back within range, although in the lowest limit with the chronic delay in the Atlantic side and this year Chukchi and later Bering (will it have much or any ice this year?).
More worrying to me is the spatial configuration of the second and multi- year ice, much of it can be rapidly lost if the Beaufort drift-transpolar drift-Fram export sets in motion as usually does in winter. And the sustained pulse of Pacific water thru the Bering, this will not help in a warm summer. We might see a wide opening of the Pacific side next year again.

Yep agree, I don't think this year will put us at the other side of the hill, it will still take time (and CO2...) for this. For the clouds, yes the pattern was favorable, but water vapor reached an extreme peak in October 2016 in the Arctic and I don't see this being only due to advection.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on November 05, 2016, 12:22:57 PM
The CFS-v2 ensemble prediction of sea ice concentration for March 2017. The model's lack of skill in correctly predicting sea ice in summer is well known but the skill of the model improves at lower latitudes (or at least the members agree better). So it is interesting to see that almost no ice is predicted to form in the Bering sea, but a more normal Barents sea ice cover is predicted compared to 2016. SSTs are also predicted to be colder than last year's north of Norway
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/glbSSTe3Sea.html (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/glbSSTe3Sea.html)
Another low maximum but should not smash the records?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: dnem on November 05, 2016, 04:52:15 PM
The 80N DMI temps are just absurd.  I'm at a loss for words.   :o

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png)

Here's a little picture I made to fill in for lost words.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 05, 2016, 07:00:46 PM
Yep agree, I don't think this year will put us at the other side of the hill, it will still take time (and CO2...) for this. For the clouds, yes the pattern was favorable, but water vapor reached an extreme peak in October 2016 in the Arctic and I don't see this being only due to advection.
CO2  is already there - it's just a matter of time.

What's different between now and the late Pliocene, is how fast the CO2 has appeared.  In the Pliocene, nature did the metaphorical equivalent of lifting a basket of eggs, and putting it on the top shelf of the pantry.  In the Anthropocene, humanity has taken a similar basket of eggs, and just chucked it up on to the shelf, with expected fallout.

The entire system is reacting to the very abrupt input of energy.  As we only see it in terms of human lifetimes, it doesn't seem abrupt - 150 years or so for most of the change - but it is.  The weather/temperature chaos in the Arctic is emblematic of this, as the system can't equilibrate fast enough to distribute the additional heat.  We're talking hundreds of zettajoules (10^21 joules) of additional heat here - monstrous amounts of energy - all trying to find places to go. 

It may be we're seeing the climatic equivalent of a dam bursting (failure of the Hadley, Ferrel and Arctic cells).  This now translates into 20C+ temperature anomalies across the entire Arctic.  We were excited *last* year looking at those temperatures hitting about half of the basin at a time in waves.  Now its the *entire* basin, and persistent.

(Reference to give you the source of my heat uptake numbers)
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/grantham-institute/public/publications/briefing-papers/Ocean-heat-uptake---Grantham-BP-15.pdf (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/grantham-institute/public/publications/briefing-papers/Ocean-heat-uptake---Grantham-BP-15.pdf)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Okono on November 05, 2016, 07:24:49 PM
It may be we're seeing the climatic equivalent of a dam bursting (failure of the Hadley, Ferrel and Arctic cells).

We're seeing enough highly anomalous yet highly persistent behavior to flag awareness of violent phase shifts, but that's about as dramatic as it could get.

So, here's your raised eyebrow. :D  I had heard often of the expansion of the Hadley cells being a primary risk from global warming, but I'm less familiar with prognosticated risk of complete circulatory failures(beyond the hypothesized THC failure).

Was this seriously perceived as possible, is this seriously possible, and has anyone seriously modeled plausible forcings for such collapse or the impact globally as well as for the Arctic, fully aware that it's so far out of ordinary behavior that we could have at best a crude guess, and "did we see it coming" would be the least of our worries?  Have you some studies at the ready for the studious amongst us?  ;D
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Rippleillusion on November 05, 2016, 09:12:39 PM
Thank you all for the eye-popping charts and updates. I have quite a deficit of Sea ice knowledge and understanding relative to all of you, but I really haven't seen any recent evidence to support an earth that doesn't become Venus 2.0 within this century. We've got all the energy we need and more to make it happen. That flood website is astounding. Guy Mcpherson looks more like a genius every day. If only this was some other planet that we didn't also happen to rely on for survival...  :-\ Question is, how much time do we have? Do we measure in years, months or days? Who knows at this point. All we can do is keep watching and see what the arctic has in store for us next.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Williams on November 05, 2016, 09:17:00 PM
I don't really know why we had the phase change, but if you look at the DMI Daily Mean Temperatures North of 80 degrees for 2015 you can almost pick out the exact date at the end of the year near the Winter Solstice when it happened.  I guess that is when the humidity and the the ocean climate finally pushed far enough North to change the strange attractor and cause a (mathematical) catastrophe.

I've been saying for a long time that the real greenhouse gas is H2O, and that the switch would come in the form of a long delayed freeze-up in Fall.  Anyone who has experienced night in the desert and night on the coast ought to know that.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on November 05, 2016, 09:28:43 PM
Persistent shift of the Arctic polar vortex towards the Eurasian continent in recent decades.
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3136.html (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3136.html)
Quote
The wintertime Arctic stratospheric polar vortex has weakened over the past three decades, and consequently cold surface air from high latitudes is now more likely to move into the middle latitudes1, 2, 3, 4, 5. However, it is not known if the location of the polar vortex has also experienced a persistent change in response to Arctic climate change and whether any changes in the vortex position have implications for the climate system. Here, through the analysis of various data sets and model simulations, we show that the Arctic polar vortex shifted persistently towards the Eurasian continent and away from North America in February over the past three decades. This shift is found to be closely related to the enhanced zonal wavenumber-1 waves in response to Arctic sea-ice loss, particularly over the Barents–Kara seas (BKS). Increased snow cover over the Eurasian continent may also have contributed to the shift. Our analysis reveals that the vortex shift induces cooling over some parts of the Eurasian continent and North America which partly offsets the tropospheric climate warming there in the past three decades. The potential vortex shift in response to persistent sea-ice loss in the future6, 7, and its associated climatic impact, deserve attention to better constrain future climate changes.
My bold.
The point Zack was making is that recent studies, in part, refute this claim.  These studies are not getting as much media attention.  Perhaps because they don't show how the effects of climate change account for what we're currently seeing in simple or more seemingly obvious terms, like loss of Barents–Kara sea ice.
 
http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2820.epdf?author_access_token=oEjnyfdS1I_kzcuXv2NK0dRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0MXAtfUgKiCfZeyzIVnl24D1uNsd7q9wdYS58Zy6RLG0QHcjXMLCSU3f-_X3kNq-mwBLh0JvmiMyyoVk-OPvhnj (http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2820.epdf?author_access_token=oEjnyfdS1I_kzcuXv2NK0dRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0MXAtfUgKiCfZeyzIVnl24D1uNsd7q9wdYS58Zy6RLG0QHcjXMLCSU3f-_X3kNq-mwBLh0JvmiMyyoVk-OPvhnj)
Quote
. . . we find no evidence of Arctic sea-ice loss having impacted Eurasian surface temperature. In our atmosphere–ocean simulations, we find just one simulation with Eurasian cooling of the observed magnitude but Arctic sea-ice loss was not involved, either directly or indirectly. Rather, in this simulation the cooling is due to a persistent circulation pattern combining high pressure over the Barents–Kara Sea and a downstream trough. We conclude that the observed cooling over central Eurasia was probably due to a sea-ice-independent internally generated circulation pattern ensconced over, and nearby, the Barents–Kara Sea since the 1980s.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on November 05, 2016, 09:46:28 PM
...
And the trend:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg15.hostingpics.net%2Fpics%2F168040climindex85682456830814317.png&hash=798d999311fe8d22a5fbb7311239b424)
...
Aslan, I am really intrigued by this nice time series. A question: why do you include only the sector of longitudes E120° to 270° ( 90° West I  guess).
Is it possible to get similar plots of specific and/or relative humidity at tropopause pressure altitude of 200 hPa. Just to see if indeed we can see the expected humidity increase (with a small drop of relative humidity, see link below) given the temperature plot that Zack Labe was showing.
http://m.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WaterVapor/water_vapor3.php (http://m.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WaterVapor/water_vapor3.php)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 05, 2016, 10:28:26 PM
<snippage>
I've been saying for a long time that the real greenhouse gas is H2O, and that the switch would come in the form of a long delayed freeze-up in Fall.  Anyone who has experienced night in the desert and night on the coast ought to know that.
I generally concur - CO2's the match and tinder, H2O the accelerant and primary fuel.  Your phase shift may be tied to some crucial absolute humidity saturation level; with global temperatures generally up about a degree and a half, that's close to a 10% overall potential increase in atmospheric carrying capacity for H2O.  As the heat is not universally distributed, the increase is disproportionately at high latitudes.

I think we need to keep this in mind - those high arctic temperatures also mean 200-500% increase in absolute moisture carrying capacity.  E.g. going from ~248K to ~262K as DMI 80N suggests, our theoretical max H2O goes from 0.5 grams/liter of atmosphere to about 1.75 - a 250% increase.

Now, we probably aren't consistently pegging humidity at 100%, but even considering that, we have both more non-sensible heat (from H2O phase changes) *and* increased radiative forcing. 

(I haven't been able to find references which show how H2O radiative forcing changes with increases in humidity - anyone have any hints? I'd like to at least ballpark how much additional heat is being trapped).

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Okono on November 05, 2016, 10:45:23 PM
Which adds more clouds and heat, preventing refreeze or a decrease of OLR, temperature differential shrinks leading to more meridional heat and moisture transport, which adds more clouds and heat, preventing refreeze or a decrease of OLR,

Okay, I'm starting to get why this is concerning.  I still don't see how there's a link to the primary atmospheric circulation cells of the Earth breaking down.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on November 05, 2016, 10:55:40 PM
  I still don't see how there's a link to the primary atmospheric circulation cells of the Earth breaking down.

I have to wonder what happens when a wandering polar jet lobe impacts a northerly loop of the sub tropical Jet?

Does that really open the door to rapid flooding of tropical air north whilst the Polar airs give extreme cold for a few days before 'acclimatising' ,via a couple of days of Equatorial heating, to its new location?

The bigger impact would come from that rapidly migrating tropical air over regions not normally so impacted? And all that moisture laden air suddenly cooling???

So I think the 'system' fuses as the highly meridonal Polar jet amplification frequently 'short out' the Sub Tropical Jet?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 05, 2016, 11:19:20 PM
A couple people made claims earlier this year that all the main jet streams connected for a time and allowed pole to pole transport of warm moist air from equatorial regions. There was quite a bit of controversy and confusion over it. Some "authorities" on the matter tried to say it happened all the time. I could not find any verification that it had done so other than with some lower altitude winds, which are not the same.

P.S. Not that the moisture and heat necessarily needed the jet stream to get there.

Scripps Institution of Oceanography has done a lot of studies on clouds and moisture migrating to the Arctic, or actually both poles.
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/clouds-are-moving-higher-subtropical-dry-zones-expanding-according-satellite-analysis
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on November 06, 2016, 12:07:55 AM
Quote
I still don't see how there's a link to the primary atmospheric circulation cells of the Earth breaking down.

I don't know enough about the details of atmospheric circulations, but how can it not affect it? Atmospheric circulations are ruled by temperature/pressure and gravity. Gravity has not changed but temperature/pressure has.  They have been at relative equilibrium for thousand s of years and then in one hundred years we inject a heck of a lot of heat into the system.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: aslan on November 06, 2016, 12:38:07 AM
...
And the trend:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg15.hostingpics.net%2Fpics%2F168040climindex85682456830814317.png&hash=798d999311fe8d22a5fbb7311239b424)
...
Aslan, I am really intrigued by this nice time series. A question: why do you include only the sector of longitudes E120° to 270° ( 90° West I  guess).
Is it possible to get similar plots of specific and/or relative humidity at tropopause pressure altitude of 200 hPa. Just to see if indeed we can see the expected humidity increase (with a small drop of relative humidity, see link below) given the temperature plot that Zack Labe was showing.
http://m.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WaterVapor/water_vapor3.php (http://m.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WaterVapor/water_vapor3.php)

Yep, it's from the reanalysis:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl)

Why 120°E to 270°WE? because plots from reanalysis are only possible over latitude - longitude box with a simple definition (from east to west and north to south). Extending the box would have taken into account snow lands or the open Atlantic. And I was too lazy to done my own calculations and integrate OLRs over the central Arctic stricto sensu ^^" One BIG caveat is the validity of the reanalysis before the satellite era for such parameters. Before the late 70s, data are probably totally unreliable.

Reanalysis also give humidity parameters. Near the surface, it is generally good with some caution, up in the atmosphere it is sometimes less reliable. Tropopause is lower in Arctic in October, generally around 300 hPa. So here it is for the level 400 hPa, acknowledging that data are more reliable in recent years:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg15.hostingpics.net%2Fpics%2F183518climindex85682456830916378.png&hash=c92ba12fbe8a2761e5b7357775195086)

And precipitable water:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg15.hostingpics.net%2Fpics%2F111537climindex856824568309163816.png&hash=8b2c30e1114f657a96baead559594f75)

Quote
I haven't been able to find references which show how H2O radiative forcing changes with increases in humidity - anyone have any hints? I'd like to at least ballpark how much additional heat is being trapped

Perhaps here, from Pierrehumbert 1995:

https://scienceofdoom.com/2012/12/23/clouds-water-vapor-part-five-back-of-the-envelope-calcs-from-pierrehumbert/ (https://scienceofdoom.com/2012/12/23/clouds-water-vapor-part-five-back-of-the-envelope-calcs-from-pierrehumbert/)

Or here:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI3611.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI3611.1)
ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/water/annrev00.pdf (http://ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/water/annrev00.pdf)

And so to continue with radiative flux, downward IRs at surface for 2016:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg4.hostingpics.net%2Fpics%2F1251292016.png&hash=ffa4e0e8b53ee2884c6a4651afd47559)

The normal:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg4.hostingpics.net%2Fpics%2F743942norm.png&hash=22b4e3d81188c9c0ca1791f65d64f0dd)

2012:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg4.hostingpics.net%2Fpics%2F5937242012.png&hash=db8c147878278d631d2e1e8f70c83eb6)

En 2003 -high water vapor content also according to the reanalysis-:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg4.hostingpics.net%2Fpics%2F7872992003.png&hash=3e2b0b438c2f3aaf41dfb5a38ebbec31)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 06, 2016, 01:04:55 AM
Excessive anomalous temperatures up to 20°C are expected to continue in the Arctic over at least the next 7-days.

Animation at the link:  https://mobile.twitter.com/ZLabe/status/794561803141267456
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on November 06, 2016, 02:03:59 AM
The SIE is now 800k km2 below the previous record and 1.6mln km2 below 2015 for Oct 4th. The antarctic SIE is supposed to hit record low today.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 06, 2016, 02:12:53 AM
Speaking of...
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: D: on November 06, 2016, 02:24:53 AM
Aikimox 31 Oct
To answer your question I quote my post at Neven1 which is as follows:-

"The deployment of any new technology will almost certainly be 'out of time'. Time is of the essence.

I find it difficult to imagine how a catastrophic event can now be avoided and the question on my mind is whether or not a catastrophic event will trigger the necessary global response to avert a cataclysmic event.

In the context of this discussion I would suggest the following definitions:-
Catastrophic: A severe global dislocation of all systems that support life as we know it today.
Cataclysmic: An extinction or near extinction event.

I am 72 years old and do not expect my children and grandchildren to enjoy such longevity of life. I desperately hope that I am wrong but unless there is an unforseen interceding event I fear the worst.

A Prediction from a peer reviewed scientific paper I read some years ago...'The Arctic Ocean will be ice free at a point in time in 2020 + or - 4 years'.

I fear that what is about to happen and the consequencies will not play out over a couple of lifetimes."
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 06, 2016, 04:35:09 AM
Big gains in the Arctic today. Century drop in the Antarctic.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 06, 2016, 04:51:14 AM
For October, there is an interesting point. According to the reanalysis, IRs radiations to space where not exceptionally high. This is an argument for a strong feedback from water vapor and clouds which insulate the Arctic. As said, moisture is everywhere. Advection of warm air and water was probably a factor also. But datas show that Arctic is not radiating energy back to space, despite polar night and warmer than average temperature. Difference with 2007 is stark.


This does not bode well. Arctic is probably not loosing a lot of energy currently. So perhaps the sluggish growth will not be compensated by a lower heat content, which is bad new for 2017. And with current order of magnitude of heat transport, Arctic is probably able to sustain itself trough the polar night without sea ice. We are one month and half before solstice, and sea ice is still not able to grow on the Pacific side. For the latest point, there is still a bit of time, but after a blue summer, it seems likely that clouds and water vapor will be able to insulate Arctic through the polar night.
Related article her:
www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/stratosphere-shrinks-as-record-breaking-temperatures-continue-because-of-climate-change-20161027-gscd0w.html (http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/stratosphere-shrinks-as-record-breaking-temperatures-continue-because-of-climate-change-20161027-gscd0w.html)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on November 06, 2016, 07:42:18 AM
Yep agree, I don't think this year will put us at the other side of the hill, it will still take time (and CO2...) for this. For the clouds, yes the pattern was favorable, but water vapor reached an extreme peak in October 2016 in the Arctic and I don't see this being only due to advection.
CO2  is already there - it's just a matter of time.

What's different between now and the late Pliocene, is how fast the CO2 has appeared.  In the Pliocene, nature did the metaphorical equivalent of lifting a basket of eggs, and putting it on the top shelf of the pantry.  In the Anthropocene, humanity has taken a similar basket of eggs, and just chucked it up on to the shelf, with expected fallout.

The entire system is reacting to the very abrupt input of energy.  As we only see it in terms of human lifetimes, it doesn't seem abrupt - 150 years or so for most of the change - but it is.  The weather/temperature chaos in the Arctic is emblematic of this, as the system can't equilibrate fast enough to distribute the additional heat.  We're talking hundreds of zettajoules (10^21 joules) of additional heat here - monstrous amounts of energy - all trying to find places to go. 

It may be we're seeing the climatic equivalent of a dam bursting (failure of the Hadley, Ferrel and Arctic cells).  This now translates into 20C+ temperature anomalies across the entire Arctic.  We were excited *last* year looking at those temperatures hitting about half of the basin at a time in waves.  Now its the *entire* basin, and persistent.

(Reference to give you the source of my heat uptake numbers)
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/grantham-institute/public/publications/briefing-papers/Ocean-heat-uptake---Grantham-BP-15.pdf (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/grantham-institute/public/publications/briefing-papers/Ocean-heat-uptake---Grantham-BP-15.pdf)

One thing to consider is that any paleoclimate scenario allowed for a slower change in the rate of GHG forcing within a primoridal earth system.  That means that there was approximately 300% the total mass of bony fish in the oceans and at least 1000% more carbon represented in primordial forests. 

Due to the slower rate-change of forcing, the oceans were not significantly out of balance to the scale of top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance.  The rate of forcing change was proportional to the overturning circulation.  This is not the case today.

In other words, the earth has never experienced a change in CO2 levels at this rate, not in geologic time.  We simply do not have a roadmap that can give us comfort to be sure that we will not experience a sudden and catastrophic transformation of our global atmospheric circulation patterns under these modern circumstances.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Sleepy on November 06, 2016, 07:44:54 AM
The point Zack was making is that recent studies, in part, refute this claim.  These studies are not getting as much media attention.  Perhaps because they don't show how the effects of climate change account for what we're currently seeing in simple or more seemingly obvious terms, like loss of Barents–Kara sea ice.
I read that study earlier. Unfortunately I fail to see the "reality check" as you wrote in your earlier post, also how a statistical and modeled approach explains what's been going on this year in and above the Arctic. But I was also confused while reading a study with Fyfe about the "slowdown" a few years back, so I might be narrow minded here or simply not understanding.
I haven't read the discussion you referred to in your earlier comment so I can't comment on Zachary Labe's point or the "other studies". But I'm aware that there's an ongoing debate.

There's nothing simple here. Add the anomalous QBO this year, more are working on it now, sparc provides regular updates on their site. Thought about starting a thread about the QBO and related science, but so many other things interfere in life, today I will have to spend the day shovelling snow. We're looking at a record warm 2016, a negative AO since early October, a record low ASI, a record early PV-split, a record early PV-displacement. Let's see how this winter unfolds, hopefully we'll be wiser but right now I have no use for a statistical approach to that white stuff outside, in early november, and below 60°N. ;)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on November 06, 2016, 11:07:22 AM
The antarctic SIE is supposed to hit record low today.

The NSIDC daily number has already "hit record low" a couple of times:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/10/nsidc-and-cryosat-2-agreed-upon-declining-arctic-sea-ice/#comment-216249 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/10/nsidc-and-cryosat-2-agreed-upon-declining-arctic-sea-ice/#comment-216249)

Most recently 16.29 million km² on November 3rd. The 5 day trailing average may well follow suit shortly.


Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on November 06, 2016, 03:54:43 PM
e first animation compares refreezing in the Beaufort, Chukchi, Bering Strait and East Siberian Seas from the first of October to the 4th of November for the years 2013-2015. The key year 2012 is not yet available for this time frame.

The current year 2016 is only partly available but the second animation (kaleidoscopic about the Bering Strait) fills in some of the missing dates using 6 days of forward predictions of hycom and 22 additional dates of simulated open water to bring the time series to Dec 1st by gradually ’refreezing’ in from the edge of the ice pack on the last hycom of Nov 9th.

On Dec 1st, only 36% of the open water of Nov 1st is left in the 2016 panel but this is still 141% of that left on the same date in 2015. As projected, the anomaly has persisted but not worsened (relative to earlier years) even as refreezing has advanced.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 06, 2016, 04:22:17 PM
Aikimox 31 Oct
To answer your question I quote my post at Neven1 which is as follows:-

"The deployment of any new technology will almost certainly be 'out of time'. Time is of the essence.

I find it difficult to imagine how a catastrophic event can now be avoided and the question on my mind is whether or not a catastrophic event will trigger the necessary global response to avert a cataclysmic event.

In the context of this discussion I would suggest the following definitions:-
Catastrophic: A severe global dislocation of all systems that support life as we know it today.
Cataclysmic: An extinction or near extinction event.

I am 72 years old and do not expect my children and grandchildren to enjoy such longevity of life. I desperately hope that I am wrong but unless there is an unforseen interceding event I fear the worst.

A Prediction from a peer reviewed scientific paper I read some years ago...'The Arctic Ocean will be ice free at a point in time in 2020 + or - 4 years'.

I fear that what is about to happen and the consequencies will not play out over a couple of lifetimes."

Actually, an intercession wouldn't be unforeseen, it's predicted at Revelations 11:18. If you choose to believe the Earth has a Creator, it only makes sense, He wouldn't let it be destroyed.

I know that's OT, but it kept coming up. I will explain anything on that in further detail, in private.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Williams on November 06, 2016, 05:01:22 PM
I generally concur - CO2's the match and tinder, H2O the accelerant and primary fuel.  Your phase shift may be tied to some crucial absolute humidity saturation level; with global temperatures generally up about a degree and a half, that's close to a 10% overall potential increase in atmospheric carrying capacity for H2O.  As the heat is not universally distributed, the increase is disproportionately at high latitudes.

I think we need to keep this in mind - those high arctic temperatures also mean 200-500% increase in absolute moisture carrying capacity.  E.g. going from ~248K to ~262K as DMI 80N suggests, our theoretical max H2O goes from 0.5 grams/liter of atmosphere to about 1.75 - a 250% increase.

Now, we probably aren't consistently pegging humidity at 100%, but even considering that, we have both more non-sensible heat (from H2O phase changes) *and* increased radiative forcing. 

(I haven't been able to find references which show how H2O radiative forcing changes with increases in humidity - anyone have any hints? I'd like to at least ballpark how much additional heat is being trapped).

OK then, first test...Is the Arctic unusually cloudy this Winter?

The next question for this Winter will be whether enough freezes up and becomes desert to get the surface temperature in the far North to fall to near normal levels, or will the surrounding oceans provide enough absolute humidity to prevent any significant region of desert conditions?

P.S.  It looks like there was an attempted phase change in the Fall of 2012; which failed.  No other year looks similar.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: etienne on November 06, 2016, 06:02:37 PM

Actually, an intercession wouldn't be unforeseen, it's predicted at Revelations 11:18. If you choose to believe the Earth has a Creator, it only makes sense, He wouldn't let it be destroyed.

I know that's OT, but it kept coming up. I will explain anything on that in further detail, in private.

Hello,

I have here a language question. What do you mean by "intercession" ? If it is a hope that extranatural forces would save earth, I am skeptical. I wouldn't jump from the brigde and pray to stay alive, but I have the feeling that it's what we are doing with climate change.

Maybe we could start a theological topics. For example in the "AGW in general/Science", but maybe it's a bad idea.

Best regards,

Etienne
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: binntho on November 06, 2016, 06:10:55 PM
The intercession of God is not something to look forward to. Apparently He just killed 300 innocent people in Italy because of new laws on civil unions. Not the kind of psycho killer I'd hold out for.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on November 06, 2016, 06:12:48 PM
@ Sleepy

Discovering other explanations for the changing AO and PV, for me was a kind of reality check because, as you indicate, the science on this matter is not settled, and my hypothesis would go a lot further if I base it on more settled science. 

I too am inclined to go with a dynamical modeling over statistical modeling given all the record breaking and changing dynamics we are seeing in the Arctic and beyond.  It was funny after reading your original comment, I started looking for info/research on how the QBO could be related - and then in your second comment i saw that you are also interested in it  :)  It's particularly interesting to me because it provides another possible way for far-flung dynamics to interconnect or teleconnect with the Arctic.

Perhaps Zachary himself could chime in here?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 06, 2016, 06:16:24 PM
Re: etienne,       I drive a truck that drops from 6 cylinder to 4 cylinder every chance possible so as to save gas. I just spent a lot of money on LED  bulbs that use less energy, a lot less. I recycle and try to be responsible in every way possible. I like brilliant ideas that help the environment, but I know my limitations.


P.S. I really would like an electric automobile of some sort, but these are not yet readily available in my area, but will be here soon. They are starting to install some charging stations.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 06, 2016, 06:29:16 PM
The intercession of God is not something to look forward to. Apparently He just killed 300 innocent people in Italy because of new laws on civil unions. Not the kind of psycho killer I'd hold out for.

For now, the Creator does not control this world, as the "whole world lies in the power of the wicked one."  He let it be that way for a short time, as a lesson.
1John 5:19

I am sure we are going to be told to move this conversation or make it private.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Neven on November 06, 2016, 07:01:22 PM
For now, the Creator does not control this world, as the "whole world lies in the power of the wicked one."  He let it be that way for a short time, as a lesson.
1John 5:19

I am sure we are going to be told to move this conversation or make it private.

Religious discussion are henceforth excommunicated from this thread. Amen.  ;)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Blizzard92 on November 06, 2016, 07:50:40 PM
I've updated all of my PIOMAS sea ice volume and thickness figures here: http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/ (http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/).

Here's an animation of PIOMAS October sea ice thickness from 1979 through 2016...
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 06, 2016, 08:00:50 PM
For now, the Creator does not control this world, as the "whole world lies in the power of the wicked one."  He let it be that way for a short time, as a lesson.
1John 5:19

I am sure we are going to be told to move this conversation or make it private.

Religious discussion are henceforth excommunicated from this thread. Amen.  ;)

Thank you.

(Lights lamp in tribute to Brighid, Hearth Goddess of Ireland.)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 06, 2016, 09:14:49 PM

For now, the Creator does not control this world, as the "whole world lies in the power of the wicked one."  He let it be that way for a short time, as a lesson.
1John 5:19

I am sure we are going to be told to move this conversation or make it private.

Religious discussion are henceforth excommunicated from this thread. Amen.  ;)
Ok. Other threads in the rest section might be used for this still, or so i understand. Is there a demand for a new religion or can the old ones manage the results of their actions?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Pi26 on November 06, 2016, 09:37:27 PM
The antarctic SIE is supposed to hit record low today.

The NSIDC daily number has already "hit record low" a couple of times:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/10/nsidc-and-cryosat-2-agreed-upon-declining-arctic-sea-ice/#comment-216249 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/10/nsidc-and-cryosat-2-agreed-upon-declining-arctic-sea-ice/#comment-216249)

Most recently 16.29 million km² on November 3rd. The 5 day trailing average may well follow suit shortly.

Really? Twice as much open waters to date than usual at Beaufort, Chuckchi and East Sibirian Sea?
700000 km2 more open waters? I think these waters have to realease at least 50000 billions kWh of energy for a single meter of ice there - and perhaps these waters even could release far more energy.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: budmantis on November 06, 2016, 10:28:23 PM
For now, the Creator does not control this world, as the "whole world lies in the power of the wicked one."  He let it be that way for a short time, as a lesson.
1John 5:19

I am sure we are going to be told to move this conversation or make it private.

Religious discussion are henceforth excommunicated from this thread. Amen.  ;)

And given that commandment, may the deity of your choice bless you and keep you during these turbulent times.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on November 06, 2016, 10:35:04 PM
The antarctic SIE is supposed to hit record low today.

The NSIDC daily number has already "hit record low" a couple of times:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/10/nsidc-and-cryosat-2-agreed-upon-declining-arctic-sea-ice/#comment-216249 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/10/nsidc-and-cryosat-2-agreed-upon-declining-arctic-sea-ice/#comment-216249)

Most recently 16.29 million km² on November 3rd. The 5 day trailing average may well follow suit shortly.

Really? Twice as much open waters to date than usual at Beaufort, Chuckchi and East Sibirian Sea?
700000 km2 more open waters? I think these waters have to realease at least 50000 billions kWh of energy for a single meter of ice there?
Yes, the 5 day trailing graph is now showing some 80k km2 below 1986, gratz on another record low. I wonder if there's any link between the climate chaos we are witnessing and the fact that about 70% mansions in our area are currently up for sale....
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 06, 2016, 11:00:02 PM
The SIE will probably stay behind for a while or maybe the whole season, but we have had some strong gains the last few days. NSIDC came in at 7.858 for Nov. 5th and will hit 8 M pretty soon. The temps in the Beaufort and ESS are giving in slowly but still giving nonetheless, however much km2's  that will add up upon freezing. However, I have my doubts about the other side of the Arctic, as I along with others have suspicion that the Atlantic is keeping a good supply of warmer waters into the better portion of those seas.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 07, 2016, 12:14:34 AM
I think before too long, we will have things pretty well refrozen in the central basin and directly connected peripheral seas.  What will remain then to determine if we have a new "Min/Max" will be tied to how the extent spreads across the Bering, Okhotsk, Kara, Barents and Greenland seas, along with Baffin Bay.

On the Atlantic side, I see a clear challenge to the ice spreading much further than it has already, outside of the Kara.  SST's are still pretty astonishingly high.  There are two upwelling hot spots where the temperatures are at or above 14C (!).  Much of the rest is 2-4C or warmer.  That doesn't bode well for either ice drifting into those regions, and suggests that there will be energy sources for high latitude storms right through the freezing season.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: DoomInTheUK on November 07, 2016, 10:02:46 AM
JD - I agree, and it's the result of those high latitude storms that I'm interested in.
The Arctic may not have 'tipped' just yet, but it's one very sick puppy.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Sleepy on November 07, 2016, 10:04:54 AM
Ice Shieldz; yes, the teleconnections are interesting. Based on my earlier commments (both here and in my own country) the interest is rather low.

Blizzard92; Nice animation but the attachement is too big so it won't animate. I took the liberty to shrink it, also slowed it down a bit from 2012. Hope you don't mind.

Click to animate.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on November 07, 2016, 10:05:22 AM
Really? Twice as much open waters to date than usual at Beaufort, Chuckchi and East Sibirian Sea?
700000 km2 more open waters?

The Beaufort Sea in particular is now suddenly playing catch up.

Meanwhile in other news PIOMAS volume on October 31st was lowest for the date (since their records began), joining Arctic & Antarctic area/extent in that position:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/11/global-sea-ice-at-record-low-levels/ (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/11/global-sea-ice-at-record-low-levels/)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Okono on November 07, 2016, 12:03:16 PM
Pop sci is picking up on the story a bit.

http://gizmodo.com/the-arctic-is-having-a-very-bad-time-1788537714 (http://gizmodo.com/the-arctic-is-having-a-very-bad-time-1788537714)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on November 07, 2016, 12:40:38 PM
Thinking out loud here. If we do lose the older thicker ice ( currently poised over Fram/Barentsz) then are we not left with a pack similar to what would reform after a B.O.E.?

Should winter prove similar to last year ( warm and disruptive to the ice) then we may well be in a position that does not demand a 'perfect melt storm synoptic' to bring about ice free conditions? Could we find that the ice proves to be as durable as that in Bering/Baffin/Hudson?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: CalamityCountdown on November 07, 2016, 02:05:29 PM
magnamentis posted this link a couple of days ago, but if you have not viewed it, it's worth checking out this animation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vj1G9gqhkYA (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vj1G9gqhkYA)

Published on Oct 28, 2016
Arctic sea ice has not only been shrinking in surface area in recent years, it’s becoming younger and thinner as well. In this animation, where the ice cover almost looks gelatinous as it pulses through the seasons, cryospheric scientist Dr. Walt Meier of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center describes how the sea ice has undergone fundamental changes during the era of satellite measurements.

An updated version of this visualization can be downloaded in HD here: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4510 (http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4510)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Blizzard92 on November 07, 2016, 04:30:58 PM
Ice Shieldz; yes, the teleconnections are interesting. Based on my earlier commments (both here and in my own country) the interest is rather low.

Blizzard92; Nice animation but the attachement is too big so it won't animate. I took the liberty to shrink it, also slowed it down a bit from 2012. Hope you don't mind.

Click to animate.

Ah thanks! I keep forgetting about modifying the file size.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on November 07, 2016, 04:49:42 PM

Arctic sea ice has not only been shrinking in surface area in recent years, it’s becoming younger and thinner as well. In this animation, where the ice cover almost looks gelatinous as it pulses through the seasons, cryospheric scientist Dr. Walt Meier of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center describes how the sea ice has undergone fundamental changes during the era of satellite measurements.


The halocline in the Arctic is critical for sea ice preservation and is supported by the input of freshwater from the summer and by the melting of ice. The mechanism of freezing produces briny water that sinks during the freeze, and melting of the less briny ice produces freshwater that floats and inhibits vertical mixing. As the ice thins and becomes younger and 'less fresh' I would think the salinity gradient will deteriorate and make it easier to mix the the surface of the ocean with deeper warmer and saltier water.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 07, 2016, 08:00:06 PM
The Beaufort is cooling down and will be next to freeze over, imo. ESS will be delayed a little bit, but soon to follow.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on November 07, 2016, 10:44:20 PM
For sure it will, but we are in the second week of November and still behind the lowest on record by some 650k km2. We have been in the unprecedented for a long time now. The new ice will be thin, the region is still very dynamic and might stay this way well into the freezing season. 
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on November 07, 2016, 11:01:03 PM
Sorry for double-posting. Couldn't figure out how to attach files to the previous posts.

Look at this. All the way into mid November! These are basically mild summer temps.

The average for November is around 0 to-5C!

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: dnem on November 07, 2016, 11:17:38 PM
DMI 80N temps bounced back up again too.  Running about 13 C over climatology right now.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Blizzard92 on November 07, 2016, 11:50:26 PM
A look at the spatial distribution of temperature anomalies so far this November over the Arctic Ocean... (from  https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/795684077168771072 (https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/795684077168771072))

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on November 07, 2016, 11:54:49 PM
A strong low pressure system is currently entering the Arctic Basin through the Fram Strait.

GFS predicts it to bottom out in about 12 hours at around 966 hPa.

How much of an effect will this have on current and future sea ice formation on the Atlantic side?

Waves disrupting ice formation?
Waves and Ekman pumping mixing in warmer, saltier water from the Atlantic near the ice edge?

I don't feel I can quantify these effects even at a level to determine whether they are significant.

Usual gut feeling is the Winter is long and cold and tends to wash out any potential effects on next year's melt season of the weather at this time of year.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: budmantis on November 07, 2016, 11:57:28 PM
Looks like the Baffin Island lakes are finally about to ice over.

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: DrTskoul on November 08, 2016, 12:28:08 AM
Sorry for double-posting. Couldn't figure out how to attach files to the previous posts.

Look at this. All the way into mid November! These are basically mild summer temps.

The average for November is around 0 to-5C!

Holy... I spent a couple of years in Calgary. Three years ago in December it got down to -40C and two Septembers ago we had a more than 4" of wet snow.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on November 08, 2016, 12:34:06 AM
Waves on the the Atlantic side
https://www.windytv.com/?wwaves,80.000,-54.141,4 (https://www.windytv.com/?wwaves,80.000,-54.141,4)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on November 08, 2016, 12:36:48 AM
Q: which season does this temperature graph for the northern polar region show

A: SPRING  :o

BTW a nice example about the impact on the graphic's scale/cutout for opinion building if intended which of course is not the case here, just a little joke with a prise of truth.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on November 08, 2016, 01:03:20 AM
observation of Hadley Cell expansion into Arctic

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Okono on November 08, 2016, 02:55:14 AM
observation of Hadley Cell expansion into Arctic

I'm not qualified enough to know whether it's rare for specific storm systems to get slurped up like that, but I suspect it happens from time to time.

I would still like to see some research, past or present, that indicates collapse of atmospheric circulation on that magnitude is even a theoretical possibility.  Perturbations, sure, but I've been perturbed since the day I was

"The large scale atmospheric circulation 'cells' shift polewards in warmer periods (e.g. interglacials compared to glacials), but remain largely constant as they are, fundamentally, a property of the Earth's size, rotation rate, heating and atmospheric depth, all of which change little.

Over very long time periods (hundreds of millions of years), a tectonic uplift can significantly alter their major elements, such as the jet stream, and plate tectonics may shift ocean currents. During the extremely hot climates of the Mesozoic, a third desert belt may have existed at the Equator. But, the overall latitudinal pattern of Earth's climate has not changed."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_circulation

I read this to indicate that the mode of atmospheric circulation is exceptionally stable and we would not expect any of the relevant variables to be affected by global warming.

I'm definitely willing to be proven wrong, but I remain skeptical about the claims.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on November 08, 2016, 04:02:58 AM

"The large scale atmospheric circulation 'cells' shift polewards in warmer periods (e.g. interglacials compared to glacials), but remain largely constant as they are, fundamentally, a property of the Earth's size, rotation rate, heating and atmospheric depth, all of which change little.

"Earth's size, rotation rate, heating and atmospheric depth, all of which change little" With Global warming heating changes. With arctic amplification heat difference changes dramatically, changing the temperature difference from the pole to the equator. Atmospheric depth also changes with changes in temperature. Its a physical impossibility for atmospheric circulation not to change with global warming.

The real question is, will the change be significant? That depends on the warming being significant enough. How significant is the warming we are experiencing? For this I will use a non conventional scientific source. XKCD. https://xkcd.com/1732/ (https://xkcd.com/1732/)which goes back 20k years.

If you wanna see further back in time then see the allpaleotemps graph in wikipedia. Here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:All_palaeotemps.png (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:All_palaeotemps.png)

Atmospheric circulation is remarkable stable, for as long as the earth size, rotation rate and heating is remarkably stable. For hundreds of thousands of years heating was stable, with glacial and inter glacial periods happening at very slow rates (in human terms). In the last 10,000 years, the Holocene, the climate has been also extremely stable. But AGW changed that. Now atmospheric circulation must change.


Quote
Over very long time periods (hundreds of millions of years), a tectonic uplift can significantly alter their major elements, such as the jet stream, and plate tectonics may shift ocean currents.

Global warming is already shifting ocean currents.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 08, 2016, 04:21:41 AM
observation of Hadley Cell expansion into Arctic

I'm not qualified enough to know whether it's rare for specific storm systems to get slurped up like that, but I suspect it happens from time to time.

<snippage>

I read this to indicate that the mode of atmospheric circulation is exceptionally stable and we would not expect any of the relevant variables to be affected by global warming.

I'm definitely willing to be proven wrong, but I remain skeptical about the claims.

Well, we have 2 years worth of pretty compelling observational evidence of storms being "shlurped" far more than "time to time".

You need to keep in mind the baseline temperatures in the Arctic, and just how far they currently are off that baseline - consistently 10C above normal, with some areas skyrocketing to 30+C above normal.  That would be the equivalent here in Seattle of us suddenly getting a 40C heat wave.

It's persistent and consistent - if you look at last year's (2015) DMI graph over winter and check the spikes against weather maps, you will see a fairly major storm associated with each one.  This year, there isn't even a pause.

As a Geologist, I have a fundamental problem with your "exceptionally stable" assertion.  That position is based in the paradigm of incrementalism - as my old Zoology prof once put it "Natura Non Facit Saltum" - Nature does not make leaps.

Given everything else being equal, that is the correct assumption - that the variables driving climate - insolation, chemistry, topology - will vary slowly and the corresponding behavior of systems will follow similarly in train.

Only they *aren't*, or specifically chemistry is not.

To a great degree topology is not either - as we have massively changed forestation and made other changes which affect heat uptake and albedo.  We have literally drained seas (the Aral) and by way of that utterly and probably permanently changed the climate over vast stretches of central Asia.

So, your variables on which your incrementalist conclusion is based... have already slipped their leashes and are running off with the controls to the system.

There is massive hysteresis in our climate right now; the last time CO2 levels were this high, (3.6 MYA), Average summer temps around the shores of the arctic were 15C; we've got a long way to go before the inputs from that extra CO2 reach a stable relationship with the net enthalpy in the system.  Until then, it will be attempting to equilibrate, in increasingly dramatic ways.  Even after that, the relative "stability" that will return will be far more enegetic - that's determined purely by the mechanics of water and how much bigger a load of moisture the atmosphere will be capable of carrying.

So, I'd say, if you think atmospheric circulation will remain stable in the face of increasing levels of CO2, you need a more convincing argument than something dug out of a Wikipedia article.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 08, 2016, 06:07:30 AM
observation of Hadley Cell expansion into Arctic
I have read a tremendous amount about this happening, but this is the best visual that I have seen of it. We have no doubt been seeing the effects of this lately, as it has contributed to the anomalies.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on November 08, 2016, 06:30:13 AM
yeah, I have been watching this development for 3 years now, this is by far the most dramatic impact I have seen.  The blob of red moving into the arctic circle in this animation represents air that should be at Tropopause height.  the color means that it is above freezing.  Obviously the Tropopause has lifted in the region, the lapse rate effects are what we are seeing on the surface.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on November 08, 2016, 06:36:14 AM
"The large scale atmospheric circulation 'cells' shift polewards in warmer periods (e.g. interglacials compared to glacials), but remain largely constant as they are, fundamentally, a property of the Earth's size, rotation rate, heating and atmospheric depth, all of which change little.

The last I have seen, we do not have a good understanding of cloud behavior during glacial maximums.  Recent shifts in observed cloud fractions show that the hadley cell is expanding much more rapidly than expected.  This years abnormal winter temps and observed polar jet stream behavior are perfectly clear.  The arctic cell is collapsing.

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2828.html (http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2828.html)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on November 08, 2016, 06:41:42 AM
"The large scale atmospheric circulation 'cells' shift polewards in warmer periods (e.g. interglacials compared to glacials), but remain largely constant as they are, fundamentally, a property of the Earth's size, rotation rate, heating and atmospheric depth, all of which change little.

The last I have seen, we do not have a good understanding of cloud behavior during glacial maximums.  Recent shifts in observed cloud fractions show that the hadley cell is expanding much more rapidly than expected.  This years abnormal winter temps and observed polar jet stream behavior are perfectly clear.  The arctic cell is collapsing.

What do you mean by collapsing? Care to elaborate on this a bit more?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Sleepy on November 08, 2016, 10:52:06 AM
observation of Hadley Cell expansion into Arctic
I would still like to see some research, past or present, that indicates collapse of atmospheric circulation on that magnitude is even a theoretical possibility.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1107.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1107.0.html)
As I understand this, it's a real possibility if we slow down this planets rotational speed to the same as Venus. And it is a theoretical possivility if we get the same amounts of greenhouse gasses as during PETM, but as far as I know no-one has successfully modeled this with todays configuration of planet Earth.

Here's an article at NASA from earlier this year:
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/expanding-tropics-pushing-high-altitude-clouds-towards-poles (https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/expanding-tropics-pushing-high-altitude-clouds-towards-poles)
Attaching fig3 below and here's a quote from that paper:
Quote
This study concentrates on the cloud and radiation response to dynamical shifts that may be caused by natural variability patterns, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or anthropogenic influences such as ozone depletion and greenhouse warming. The analysis results suggest that the observed multidecadal Southern Hemisphere cloud field shifts are more likely related to tropical expansion than to a poleward shift in the storm tracks. This result, along with the strong correlations of the Hadley cell edge with the midlatitude high cloud field, highlights a prominent role of the Hadley circulation in affecting midlatitude cloud shifts and indicates that tropical expansion, rather than baroclinic jet shifts, might be the more important driver of midlatitude radiative feedbacks resulting from cloud-dynamics interactions. It is important to note, however, that the dynamical interactions between the Hadley cell and the midlatitude jets are complex and not yet fully understood. Our analysis also shows that the high cloud amount is the cloud property that more strongly responds to circulation changes and that the radiative effect of poleward high cloud shifts can differ significantly, even in sign, depending in part on the properties of the background cloud field in which the high clouds are embedded.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 08, 2016, 11:26:55 AM
For what it's worth, the daily average temp anomalies have dropped a little. +4.41 C for the Arctic and   +3.04 C for the Antarctic. These seemed to have ease downward a little each day lately. I don' t know if the cold Arctic night can reverse the trends we see developing, as it sets in deeper into the winter or what, but it looks like at the least, there's a rough year ahead.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: charles_oil on November 08, 2016, 01:24:01 PM
See also UK Met office

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2016/quasibiennialoscillation (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2016/quasibiennialoscillation) - Sept 8th

The normal flow of air high up in the atmosphere over the equator, known as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), was seen to break down earlier this year. These winds in the The stratosphere are found high above the tropics, their direction and strength changes in a regular two-to three-year cycle which provides forecasters with an indication of what weather to expect in Northern Europe. Westerly winds are known to increase the chance of warm and wet conditions, while easterlies bring drier and colder weather.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: marcel_g on November 08, 2016, 03:00:57 PM
observation of Hadley Cell expansion into Arctic

I'm not qualified enough to know whether it's rare for specific storm systems to get slurped up like that, but I suspect it happens from time to time.

I would still like to see some research, past or present, that indicates collapse of atmospheric circulation on that magnitude is even a theoretical possibility.  Perturbations, sure, but I've been perturbed since the day I was

"The large scale atmospheric circulation 'cells' shift polewards in warmer periods (e.g. interglacials compared to glacials), but remain largely constant as they are, fundamentally, a property of the Earth's size, rotation rate, heating and atmospheric depth, all of which change little.

I'm definitely willing to be proven wrong, but I remain skeptical about the claims.

This page has some summaries of plausible theories for what could cause an equable climate.

https://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/research/equable/climate.html (https://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/research/equable/climate.html)

One of them is that Hadley cells extend all the way to the poles. Another is that tropical storms could bring heat to the poles, but says that phenomena hasn't been observed and is very unlikely that a tropical storm could transfer heat to the Arctic. However, these pages were obviously posted before what we've been seeing this past winter and this fall.

Is it possible that it could be a combination of the various theories of an equable climate that could make it happen? The weakening of the jet stream and the increase in the magnitude of the Rossby waves (one theory) now allows tropical storms to carry their heat and moisture into the arctic (another theory), helped along by the wintertime convective cloud feedback that prevents winter cooling (another theory)?

I have no idea how plausible that is, but I whenever I remember that systems don't usually change in linear incremental ways, I really wonder how fast this system is going to flip to a new state?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on November 08, 2016, 03:29:43 PM
Refreezing of the Bering Chukchi Beaufort ESS is currently delayed (offset) 13 days with respect to the 2015 season, ie 895,000 sq km on 07 Nov 16 versus 905000 sq km on 25 Oct 15.

As the ice pack has been shifting to the west and south in recent days, some of the 2016 daily losses do not represent refreezing but simply ice moving into the measurement zone. The average area of open water here over the last two weeks amounts to 9.5% of the Arctic Ocean.

The area of open water is gradually closing down, though when (and whether) the Chukchi will freeze over is unclear. Regions of elevated water temperatures will be diminishing over the next week per the hycom forecast (4th animation).

Wondering when the Arctic Ocean will be ‘seasonally ice free’ asks the wrong question, which quickly morphs into a silly rules game. Meanwhile sizable regions of the Arctic Ocean are seasonally ice-free already (along with land regions with early snow melt). Thus the Arctic (including permafrost lands) heat budget must already be affected, the real question being how much and what knock-on effects on lands to the south is this having already.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on November 08, 2016, 05:54:28 PM
 ::)
compare

2016
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/11/03/1500Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-126.08,82.13,355

2013
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2013/11/03/1500Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-126.08,82.13,355

this is at 250mb heights, so toward the upper end of the Troposphere.

this is only 3 years worth of difference.  in another 10 we will see no polar cell integrity  the Coriolis effect isn't enough to prevent radiative forcing driven expansion of mid-latitdue heat energy into the upper latitudes and fluid dynamics from forcing this heat/moisture in regular catapult launches into the arctic circle.

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on November 08, 2016, 05:59:04 PM
"observation of Hadley Cell expansion into Arctic" Jai when did this happen? Am I the only one who sees an 'attempt' for three northern cells to set up each rotating heat north?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on November 08, 2016, 06:21:21 PM
h/t to @ZLabe

(https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IikAiZiwK4s/WCE7FtrvxRI/AAAAAAAAF5o/CQ_NmqVoamw-A9ECvk_CxfQP3QnG7kd2wCLcB/s1600/arctic_tmp_daily_2016.png)

source:  http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2016/11/arctic-warmth.html (http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2016/11/arctic-warmth.html)

Quote
The chart below shows the mean temperature anomaly for these 19 stations in each October since 1971.  Remarkably, the 19-station mean temperature in October 2016 was 5.6°C above the 1981-2010 normal and more than 2°C above the 2012 record
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Okono on November 08, 2016, 07:58:14 PM
So, I'd say, if you think atmospheric circulation will remain stable in the face of increasing levels of CO2, you need a more convincing argument than something dug out of a Wikipedia article.

I'm not making the claim that the old circulation model is or is not breaking.  I'm not refuting it nor promoting it.

It sounds like this is an aspect of paleoclimate that we have been able to determine with some confidence.  Has it not displayed stability throughout radical changes already?  The Deccan Traps, Chicxulub...

I use Wikipedia as a source because I'm no expert in the field and I know experts in the field do curate those articles aggressively.

I'm suggesting the burden of evidence falls on people who do make that claim.  If it doesn't and this should be patently obvious as something that is happening now, then I'm an idiot, and please sally forth.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Okono on November 08, 2016, 08:01:16 PM
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1107.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1107.0.html)
As I understand this, it's a real possibility if we slow down this planets rotational speed to the same as Venus. And it is a theoretical possivility if we get the same amounts of greenhouse gasses as during PETM, but as far as I know no-one has successfully modeled this with todays configuration of planet Earth.

Epic.  Thanks so much, Sleepy.  I'll go educate myself.  *That* is the magnitude of change I thought would be needed.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on November 08, 2016, 08:30:35 PM
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1107.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1107.0.html)
As I understand this, it's a real possibility if we slow down this planets rotational speed to the same as Venus. And it is a theoretical possivility if we get the same amounts of greenhouse gasses as during PETM, but as far as I know no-one has successfully modeled this with todays configuration of planet Earth.

Epic.  Thanks so much, Sleepy.  I'll go educate myself.  *That* is the magnitude of change I thought would be needed.

the Eocene Model Intercomparison Project (EoMIP) has some interesting results that show an equitable climate happening at much lower CO2 ECS values, simply by changing the cloud reflectivity parameter.

Your assumptions of stability are not correct.  Nor are your assumptions regarding a paleoclimate analog to todays values.  This is due to the radical change in atmospheric forcing compared to sea surface temperatures.  We have never had a 100-year transformation of our planet's climate, perhaps outside of meteor impact. 

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on November 08, 2016, 08:36:46 PM
Has it not displayed stability throughout radical changes already?  The Deccan Traps, Chicxulub...


I'm sure it destabilized then, but after millions of years it entered equillibrium again and allowed life to flourish again. This has happened many times in deep time.

Quote
I'm suggesting the burden of evidence falls on people who do make that claim.  If it doesn't and this should be patently obvious as something that is happening now, then I'm an idiot, and please sally forth.

 The physics say that if the temperature changes atmospheric circulation changes. Will the changes be significant? That's unknown, and until it happens speculative. If once it happens we find out that it will be significant, we're too late.

But I don't not see how those changes will possible be good. Nature does not work that way. WHen changes like these happen, usually mass extinction happen in the short term.

The burden of proof should be on those saying that the atmospheric currents are some how isolated from global warming, but because it is such a scary prospect, it is not.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on November 08, 2016, 08:52:27 PM
Refreezing of the Bering Chukchi Beaufort ESS is currently delayed (offset) 13 days with respect to the 2015 season, ie 895,000 sq km on 07 Nov 16 versus 905000 sq km on 25 Oct 15.

As the ice pack has been shifting to the west and south in recent days, some of the 2016 daily losses do not represent refreezing but simply ice moving into the measurement zone. The average area of open water here over the last two weeks amounts to 9.5% of the Arctic Ocean.

The area of open water is gradually closing down, though when (and whether) the Chukchi will freeze over is unclear. Regions of elevated water temperatures will be diminishing over the next week per the hycom forecast (4th animation).

Wondering when the Arctic Ocean will be ‘seasonally ice free’ asks the wrong question, which quickly morphs into a silly rules game. Meanwhile sizable regions of the Arctic Ocean are seasonally ice-free already (along with land regions with early snow melt). Thus the Arctic (including permafrost lands) heat budget must already be affected, the real question being how much and what knock-on effects on lands to the south is this having already.
There is this elongated area a couple hundred kilometers north of Barrow where the waters seem holding much more heat than the surroundings, same area where clockwise eddies and jets showed up in summer making huge floes dance around the Big block. I suspect that a lot of heat was transported from Beaufort to Chukchi along this region, partly responsible of the ocean opening that started in Chukchi as late as August ... and wont refreeze almost until mid november!!
No ice of all those huge MYI floes that Healy cam photographed in mid July has survived. Nothing! (Well, perhaps small bits but I highly doubt it).
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Hubert on November 08, 2016, 09:23:15 PM
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/sieMon.gif (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/sieMon.gif)
Bad forecast.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: pauldry600 on November 08, 2016, 11:10:14 PM
Think 14m is a bit optimistic

13.5m will be an achievement
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 09, 2016, 02:52:36 AM
Concentrate on this for a while.
Tap or click it or whatever, to animate.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Ninebelowzero on November 09, 2016, 06:09:47 AM
Showing this to the punter in the street and exclaiming "Look  what's happening in the Arctic!"

 
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=1611.0;attach=38044;image)

Will  garner a likely response  of horror as a malevolent suppurating presence overwhelms the seacape and oozes into Canadian waters.

Can we have the palette reversed so it looks more like toast? :)


Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 09, 2016, 04:24:26 PM
The Arctic seems to have lost the ability to to retain "cool" air. The Arctic air gets spilled all over the world. Though still cooler than elsewhere,it might be difficult to form ice thick enough to survive next summer.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on November 09, 2016, 04:40:16 PM
Being the optimist that I am, I am happy to see that the arctic ice extent has more than doubled in 2 months since its minimum.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on November 09, 2016, 04:43:07 PM
The Arctic is the most broken than we've ever known it and until it gets the humidity down the temps will keep high even once the basin is sealed in ice? The PV looks to be trying to set up between Greenland and Iceland and that ain't gonna work!!!
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on November 09, 2016, 05:04:03 PM
Being the optimist that I am, I am happy to see that the arctic ice extent has more than doubled in 2 months since its minimum.

We are some 500k km2+ below the record low and over 1mln km2 below 2007 for Nov 9. 
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: budmantis on November 09, 2016, 05:11:04 PM
Being the optimist that I am, I am happy to see that the arctic ice extent has more than doubled in 2 months since its minimum.

We are some 500k km2+ below the record low and over 1mln km2 below 2007 for Nov 9.

There is no silver lining to be found in that very dark cloud of data.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Williams on November 09, 2016, 06:33:03 PM
Being the optimist that I am, I am happy to see that the arctic ice extent has more than doubled in 2 months since its minimum.
We are some 500k km2+ below the record low and over 1mln km2 below 2007 for Nov 9.
There is no silver lining to be found in that very dark cloud of data.

Yes there is.  Now it is Trump's problem.

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Williams on November 09, 2016, 06:40:52 PM
The Arctic is the most broken than we've ever known it and until it gets the humidity down the temps will keep high even once the basin is sealed in ice? The PV looks to be trying to set up between Greenland and Iceland and that ain't gonna work!!!

I look at that word "until" and get a cold shiver down my back.  I would like to see the temperature north of 80 degrees fall to the climatology at least once this Winter, but it jumped high back at the very end of 2015 -- in midwinter.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on November 09, 2016, 11:09:20 PM
Concentrate on this for a while.
Tap or click it or whatever, to animate.
I wouldn't be very surprised to see the ESS (at 2-3 weeks delay from recent years) and parts of the Chukchi freeze over a week from now, but I highly doubt that Hycom has the crystal ball required to model and predict that.

Looking at other regions usually active at this date, it seems Hudson and Baffin are starting their long climb up more or less along with other years, maybe a bit late, while Beaufort and Kara keep growing along the very late path of 2012. Only the ESS and Chukchi are in new territory for refreeze curve compared to the past 4 years.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 09, 2016, 11:25:56 PM
Looking better, anyhow. I really think  thickness is going to be the big problem, more so than extent, in the long run for this freezing season. Extent can recover real fast, but not saying it will not come up short.        NSIDC posted SIE at 8.238M for Nov. 8th         Polarview Nov. 8th
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: S.Pansa on November 10, 2016, 10:16:56 AM
Hm ... seems The Ronald is unstoppable now. Next target: the Artic :o

Doesn't look like AA, more like triple A.
Any news from those all important rating agencies on that? Fitch and ditch perhaps ...
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Glenn Tamblyn on November 10, 2016, 12:16:35 PM
Holy Crap!

If I am reading that right, that is nearly +20 anomalies across most of the CAB.

For ice that saw it through this year - 2m thick or more, is bottom freeze even happening at all right now?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on November 10, 2016, 12:34:13 PM
The time series below looks at graphical blending of various Arctic Ocean map products relevant to the the 2016/17 freezing season in the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea regions. Only two of these offer forward-looking products (nullschool and hycom) and these predict at most a week out at variable resolution at moderate quality.

It is straightforward to merge various pairs of Hycom products since five of the animations use the same base map (after removing horizontal shifts) and palette. For example, if sea surface temperature and sea surface salinity maps are stacked, then a map of sea surface freezing temperature could be derived from the interaction of palette colors. This ranges from 0ºC for no salinity to -1.8ºC at 34 psu (pressure-adjusted calculator at http://www.csgnetwork.com/h2ofreezecalc.html (http://www.csgnetwork.com/h2ofreezecalc.html)).

In all likelihood, the outcome is already baked into hycom ice edge products (concentration and thickness) using air temperature forecasts as well. Somewhat mysteriously, the salinity map extends out under the ice pack where it cannot be measured by satellite, the sea surface there is a bit ambiguous, and salinity of water below the ice would be affected by brine rejection during freezing. Thus it might make more sense to mask out these areas and only make the calculation for open water.

The animation shows the outcome for the predictive regime for eight days out to Nov 16th.  On the technical side, the three hycom gifs need to first be ‘unoptimized’, converted from indexed color to RGB, trimmed to the 631 x 631 map, tiled up into long single images, interleaved as layers, interacted, then sliced back down to individual days, cropped to a relevant area, re-sized to forum width, and layered back up into animation frames. Four interaction options are shown for Nov 12th. One of these could be chosen and re-paletted for sea surface freezing point
 
The second blend places nullschool sea surface temperature and its anomaly under an open water mask taken from two November dates of UHH AMSR2. It would be helpful if nullschool allowed palette expansion along the lines of Worldview as the differences are fairly slight. A variant on this would replace open water on predicted hycom sea ice thickness with surface wind or air temperature from RTG-SST / NCEP (nullschool) which hycom doesn’t furnish. RTG goes out four days vs six with hycom. Neither hycom nor RTG carry future sea surface temperature anomalies.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Entropy101 on November 10, 2016, 01:42:03 PM
I'm amazed by the DMI Daily Arctic mean temperatures north of 80N graphs. I've been browsing through them and the current heat is unprecedented by a huge margin. If this keeps up and just eyeballing I would say that the average temperature for the first 100 days of the year are at least 6 degrees above baseline and if it keeps up, the last 100 days will be even worse. I could not find the data to make the graphs myself, but it would be a nice exercise to see how unprecedented this current year is.

I'm wondering if this kind of set-up will materialize next year as well. If so, it looks like the start of a new winter baseline.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on November 10, 2016, 02:25:50 PM
Hi Entropy!

I think there are a number of us on here are wondering if this will be the one ( that folk point back too as being "The one that started it")?

The poor state of ice , last spring, was a result of a very warm Arctic winter. This allowed a pretty dismal June/July/Aug to still take enough ice to leave us with issues ( and a very smashed, dispersed pack!) this refreeze?

Should these late refreezes really be messing with both the Polar Jet and the setting up of the winter Polar Vortex then we are tripping toward a point that deep cold, settled conditions cannot exist within the Arctic for any lengthy periods anymore? We end up with winds setting up fracture events and ice , limited in thickness, never seeing any deep cold seeping into it.

Since 2012 this period, to me,  had been the most important period we faced as I thought that we would be seeing the return of the perfect melt storm synoptic in summer 2017. The past few years have eased that fear as I now think that the Arctic is driving its own weather over the summer months with Low Pressure now ever more common over June/July/Aug so limiting the return of the perfect melt storm.

I think Mother Nature did try and hold things static, post 07', but the continuing onslaught in the basin has now seen Her inertia overcome, hence what we see today.

EDIT: changed a wrong 'can' to the correct 'cannot'
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: pccp82 on November 10, 2016, 04:10:09 PM
I have to wonder if they need to change the temp scales on that anomaly chart. Might there be temps in that plume that exceed the upper limit?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: dnem on November 10, 2016, 05:28:45 PM
I'm amazed by the DMI Daily Arctic mean temperatures north of 80N graphs. I've been browsing through them and the current heat is unprecedented by a huge margin. If this keeps up and just eyeballing I would say that the average temperature for the first 100 days of the year are at least 6 degrees above baseline and if it keeps up, the last 100 days will be even worse. I could not find the data to make the graphs myself, but it would be a nice exercise to see how unprecedented this current year is.

When I made this figure I had hoped to be able to integrate the area under (over) the curve and above (below) the climatology line to create a quantitative index to compare years..  But I just don't have the drawing program or the chops to do it.  It should be pretty straightforward, though.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: be cause on November 10, 2016, 05:40:25 PM
just as the heat wave of the next 5 days end .. we have a new autumnal storm heading in to the Arctic . some models have pressure below 960 mb .Whatever the pressure, lots more heat and moisture heading poleward ! .. and of coure wind,waves .. and tides..
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on November 10, 2016, 06:49:46 PM
It's like we used to have a nice strong 'dome' over the basin by now in the form of heavy ,cold , dry air sat over the thick ice below and a resultant vortex casting off any Low that dared come close. Now we have flaccid, moisture laden , air mass collapsed across it ?

Every time another injection of temperate air arrives it must slow the repairs to the running of the 'normal Arctic' going on below?

We see a Cold Eurasian strip, with some areas of extreme precipitation, a Wimpy PV trying to be something over East Greenland and the U.S. still seeing warmth. Sadly I don't think we have many 'Weather Nuts' willing to go full 'Rapid climate shift ongoing' when entering data into our major weather models so they all strive back to climalogical averages beyond T 80 ( ish) so we cannot even see what is on the horizon with much faith?

For us in the UK it is the nightmare that low ice drove the U.S. Eastern cold plunge in 2012/13  and drove that stormy Jan for us as US cold air met warm Atlantic and fired up the Jet aimed right at us in the UK!!!

I think the Low Solar Sunspots will spare us from a repeat of that winter by H.P. driving any such invigoration of the Polar Jet ,across  the Atlantic, either north or  south by the Atlantic blocking we see during low Solar?

That leaves it that any storms must either go North, over Iceland and into Fram, or South , into France/Portugal or Spain?, and bring those regions the same flood problems we are unwilling ( here in the UK) to have to face again?

A track North destroys the last of the bulk of the 'good ice' left in the basin, sat over Fram or on the frozen edges of Barentsz and drives swells into the weak Atlantic side ice?

The maintained high temps must also manifest with some regions ( like the U.S. has been warm?)  whilst continental areas build their winter cold Highs and entice the PV to linger there a while?

It will be worth watching I feel?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tealight on November 10, 2016, 10:55:21 PM
When I made this figure I had hoped to be able to integrate the area under (over) the curve and above (below) the climatology line to create a quantitative index to compare years..  But I just don't have the drawing program or the chops to do it.  It should be pretty straightforward, though.

It's quite easy with programming skills. All you have to do is get the y positions of the red and green pixels and calulate the difference. Maybe I can replicate Andrew Slaters "Degree Days Freezing" from DMI charts. The "degreeday" part might be a bit difficult because the diagram is 520 pixel wide. This makes each day 1.42 pixels wide.

However this doesn't effect the average temperature anomaly. Below are the results of the past 5 years:

Average Temperature anomaly(in K):
Year                  2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016
whole year           5.96   6.83   5.54   6.91   6.65   8.44
since refreezing   0.48   2.45   1.05   2.08   2.15   5.08


Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: charles_oil on November 11, 2016, 01:32:31 PM
It would be great to get the degree day freezing / thawing back on line in some form.

I have asked via Andrew Slater's site if his great work will be continued / restarted and they are considering it - and hopefully will respond back about any plans....
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on November 11, 2016, 04:39:14 PM
he table below of open water as percentage of entire Arctic Ocean shows that over the last 19 days, open water in 2016 has averaged 20.2% of the maximum possible despite the late date (23 Oct to 10 Nov). This is almost double the average area (11.3%) for the same date range in 2015.

Thus a considerable portion of the Arctic Ocean — and thus a considerable portion of the effects thereof — is ‘seasonally open’ now (ie for 7 months).  As analyzed in an earlier graph, the peak open water period is currently shifted to a later date relative to the peak solar input season. While the overlap will 'improve' in coming years as the Arctic opens up earlier, open water late in season also seriously perturbs the Arctic energy budget and future ice thickness and cover.

These percentages were determined by read-out of zero ice concentration pixels (darkest blue) on the highest resolution UHH AMSR2 data set (which resolves coastal features better, important as freezing ice closes in). As the whole ocean comprises 1,860,509 pixels in this set-up and since refreezing takes place almost exclusively on the periphery of the central ice pack where Serreze 2016 accurately determined area per pixel, percentages can be translated quite accurately into sq km of open water despite the fact that the UHH projection is not quite equal area.

The Arctic Ocean, as defined here in the figure below, may differ from other sources which sometimes include Baffin Bay, the Bering Sea south of the Strait, the Barents Sea and even Hudson Bay! Those choices make sense in terms of overall high latitude heat budget but are not suitable for assessing effects of weather or Atlantic and Pacific ocean water intrusions on the main Arctic Ocean ice cover which are governed by currents, flux gates, shelf bathymetry and, increasingly, vertical mixing processes.

Unlike with the Chukchi region, refreezing is not closing in on the Barents (2nd animation, also hybridized by an extension of Hycom predicted developments).

Date        2016   2015   ratio
10 Nov 16   11.4    7.8   1.46
09 Nov 16   12.5    8.2   1.52
08 Nov 16   13.6    7.9   1.72
07 Nov 16   15.0    8.2   1.83
06 Nov 16   16.3    8.8   1.85
05 Nov 16   17.6    9.7   1.81
04 Nov 16   18.8   10.5   1.79
03 Nov 16   20.1   11.1   1.81
02 Nov 16   21.6   11.1   1.95
01 Nov 16   23.1   11.0   2.10
31 Oct 16   23.8   11.0   2.16
30 Oct 16   23.3   11.4   2.04
29 Oct 16   22.6   11.9   1.90
28 Oct 16   23.0   12.5   1.84
27 Oct 16   23.3   13.2   1.77
26 Oct 16   23.7   14.0   1.69
25 Oct 16   24.1   14.9   1.62
24 Oct 16   24.8   15.6   1.59
23 Oct 16   25.8   16.7   1.54
average     20.2   11.3   1.79
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Sleepy on November 11, 2016, 05:06:07 PM
It would be great to get the degree day freezing / thawing back on line in some form.

I have asked via Andrew Slater's site if his great work will be continued / restarted and they are considering it - and hopefully will respond back about any plans....
Thanks, followed that site for a long time and would love to see it up and running again.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 11, 2016, 07:34:07 PM
NSIDC SIE numbers have been steady moving up the last several days.

2016,    10,  31,      7.080
2016,    11,  01,      7.172
2016,    11,  02,      7.342
2016,    11,  03,      7.551
2016,    11,  04,      7.634
2016,    11,  05,      7.858
2016,    11,  06,      8.042
2016,    11,  07,      8.184
2016,    11,  08,      8.238
2016,    11,  09,      8.386
2016,    11,  10,      8.403

Still, you have to expect, or ask, that when everything facing the Bering Strait is frozen over, however thinly, will there be another pause on the Atlantic fed side?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on November 11, 2016, 08:17:10 PM
i think that not much further explanation as to what we can expect from the next 7 days is necessary :-(

on both sides where still is open open water we gonna see high winds, warm air and waters inflow from the south and moist air in addition which will probably make up for another significant stall in refreeze, this of course only if the forecast comes to be true.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on November 12, 2016, 01:44:52 PM
It is feasible to calculate shrinking perimeters of open water (in addition to areas) during seasonal refreezing. That’s done below for 23 Oct to 11 Nov 2016 by counting boundary pixels of the open water, converting those square pixels (which are areas) to length either by height (table)  or diagonal to bracket the contribution to perimeter.

It’s evident from animations that refreezing takes place almost solely along this perimeter which is the boundary of the much-studied MIZ (mixed ice zone, see AGU2016 abstracts). There may very well be more rapid freezing in narrow embayments or regions of high curvature (easily calculable) of this perimeter where the environment is calmer and colder. It seems unlikely that refreezing could be predicted from trends in scalar field integrals (eg area, extent) from which perimeter data has been dropped.

https://robertscribbler.com (https://robertscribbler.com) massive die-off of tufted puffin

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/11/tufted-puffins-die-off-bering-sea-alaska-starvation-warm-water-climate-change/ (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/11/tufted-puffins-die-off-bering-sea-alaska-starvation-warm-water-climate-change/)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: dnem on November 12, 2016, 01:46:53 PM
All you have to do is get the y positions of the red and green pixels and calulate the difference.
However this doesn't effect the average temperature anomaly. Below are the results of the past 5 years:

Average Temperature anomaly(in K):
Year                  2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016
whole year           5.96   6.83   5.54   6.91   6.65   8.44
since refreezing   0.48   2.45   1.05   2.08   2.15   5.08

Thanks Tealight.  That's exactly what I was saying.  If you don't mind, how do you extract the y positions of the red and green pixels?

So the data say that the temperature anomaly for this refreeze season inside 80N is about twice as large as any other year in the past five (and 10X larger than the coolest year in the last five).
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tealight on November 12, 2016, 02:24:45 PM
All you have to do is get the y positions of the red and green pixels and calulate the difference.
However this doesn't effect the average temperature anomaly. Below are the results of the past 5 years:

Average Temperature anomaly(in K):
Year                  2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016
whole year           5.96   6.83   5.54   6.91   6.65   8.44
since refreezing   0.48   2.45   1.05   2.08   2.15   5.08

Thanks Tealight.  That's exactly what I was saying.  If you don't mind, how do you extract the y positions of the red and green pixels?

So the data say that the temperature anomaly for this refreeze season inside 80N is about twice as large as any other year in the past five (and 10X larger than the coolest year in the last five).

I programed this in Python using the image libary Pillow(PIL). With it I can read out a pixel values e.g. red=3 and green=4.  Then a simple "for loop" finds all red and green pixels with a specific x value and saves them in a list. Sometimes the red line has 2 or more pixels for the same x value (vertical line). In that case i took the average of all pixels. The rest is simple math like "green y value" minus "red y value" and divide the pixel difference by 7.4 to get Kelvin.

You could say the anomaly is 10 times larger than the coolest year, but you would exploit the law of small numbers. Like 1.0 is 100 times larger than 0.01.

I attched the raw data (in Kelvin) as a comma seperated file. You can just open it in Excel and specify "comma" as the seperator. Maybe you can create interesting graphs or make other investigations.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on November 12, 2016, 08:47:13 PM
Keeping an eye on the predictions of the Hycom, a more textbook-like drift pattern may be emerging soon, how persistent we will see.
The model has been predicting refreezing very well btw.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: 6roucho on November 12, 2016, 08:56:45 PM
All you have to do is get the y positions of the red and green pixels and calulate the difference.
However this doesn't effect the average temperature anomaly. Below are the results of the past 5 years:

Average Temperature anomaly(in K):
Year                  2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016
whole year           5.96   6.83   5.54   6.91   6.65   8.44
since refreezing   0.48   2.45   1.05   2.08   2.15   5.08

Thanks Tealight.  That's exactly what I was saying.  If you don't mind, how do you extract the y positions of the red and green pixels?

So the data say that the temperature anomaly for this refreeze season inside 80N is about twice as large as any other year in the past five (and 10X larger than the coolest year in the last five).

I programed this in Python using the image libary Pillow(PIL). With it I can read out a pixel values e.g. red=3 and green=4.  Then a simple "for loop" finds all red and green pixels with a specific x value and saves them in a list. Sometimes the red line has 2 or more pixels for the same x value (vertical line). In that case i took the average of all pixels. The rest is simple math like "green y value" minus "red y value" and divide the pixel difference by 7.4 to get Kelvin.

You could say the anomaly is 10 times larger than the coolest year, but you would exploit the law of small numbers. Like 1.0 is 100 times larger than 0.01.

I attched the raw data (in Kelvin) as a comma seperated file. You can just open it in Excel and specify "comma" as the seperator. Maybe you can create interesting graphs or make other investigations.
Unless I'm missing something, 1 is 100 times larger than 0.01, and the law of small numbers is a logical fallacy.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: dnem on November 12, 2016, 10:36:26 PM
Well I didn't intend to ascribe any particular significance to that result (hence referring to it in parentheses).  BUT, the 80N temperature anomaly so far this refreeze IS more than twice as large as any other one in the past five years.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 12, 2016, 10:37:06 PM
Keeping an eye on the predictions of the Hycom, a more textbook-like drift pattern may be emerging soon, how persistent we will see.
The model has been predicting refreezing very well btw.
<Waves buhbybuhbye to the MYI...> :P
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 12, 2016, 10:41:30 PM
Well I didn't intend to ascribe any particular significance to that result (hence referring to it in parentheses).  BUT, the 80N temperature anomaly so far this refreeze IS more than twice as large as any other one in the past five years.
It is far from a good start, to be certain.  That so much open water remains after the release of so much heat strikes me as ominous as well.  It implies substantial heat remains to get sealed under the ice for the rest of the season, which will limit thickening.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on November 13, 2016, 02:55:40 AM
I remain optimistic. 3 million new km2 of ice extent the past 30 days, nearly 1 million more the past 8 days.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: pauldry600 on November 13, 2016, 04:02:57 AM
Im optimistic also. But still think 13.5m will be the max before a 3m min but by 2018 the min will be 1m possibly
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 13, 2016, 04:33:54 AM
Ju-ust checking the wider world. MSLP + 250 hPa winds from nullschool, ah, nothing too special. Considering unfollowing people who post too detailed forecasts too far into the future.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 13, 2016, 06:18:40 AM
Found these Argo temp graphs and thought I might post these here first. Maybe later under the Ocean Temperatures thread.
First is CircumArctic Jan2004-June2016
I found the heat stored at depths very intriguing .
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)


Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 13, 2016, 06:22:38 AM
Second is the Barents from 1955.
Note: Anomaly in GJ/m2

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 13, 2016, 06:26:51 AM
In the third, we have the East Greenland Sea.
Note: Also, Anomaly in GJ/m2

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on November 13, 2016, 07:29:06 AM
Found these Argo temp graphs and thought I might post these here first. Maybe later under the Ocean Temperatures thread.
First is CircumArctic Jan2004-June2016
I found the heat stored at depths very intriguing .

Interesting how the temps at mid-depths have been visibly dropping since about 2012. It's as if surface ice loss is slowly sucking the heat from the depths. I wonder if this means ice loss will be slowed down at some point (though I doubt it). Has anyone seen any research to explain these trends?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 13, 2016, 07:45:13 AM
I can't find much info on mid-depths. In some areas giant gyres draw the heat down to the depths, though not sure about the Arctic area in general. Once down there, disturbances by wind and waves are less likely to pull the heat back from such depths. So you may be right about the heat coming back up from the mid-depths.

Edit: As oren said, more sub-Arctic than Arctic area.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 13, 2016, 07:52:09 AM
Found these Argo temp graphs and thought I might post these here first. Maybe later under the Ocean Temperatures thread.
First is CircumArctic Jan2004-June2016
I found the heat stored at depths very intriguing .

Interesting how the temps at mid-depths have been visibly dropping since about 2012. It's as if surface ice loss is slowly sucking the heat from the depths. I wonder if this means ice loss will be slowed down at some point (though I doubt it). Has anyone seen any research to explain these trends?

Rumors of AMOC dying have been exaggarated, I'd say, maybe the overturning locations have shifted. Would love to be proven wrong here. Attaching 55-65N map so people know where the graph orginates. (always scares me to see I'd be likerly to eaten by a polar bear on the same latitude on the shore of Hudson Bay, it looks like the most close location would be Thlewiaza River (no, I hadn't heard about it either before) mouth)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Rob Dekker on November 13, 2016, 09:00:30 AM
Found these Argo temp graphs and thought I might post these here first. Maybe later under the Ocean Temperatures thread.
First is CircumArctic Jan2004-June2016
I found the heat stored at depths very intriguing .
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)

Where did you find these graphs ?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on November 13, 2016, 11:12:28 AM
Attaching 55-65N map so people know where the graph orginates.
Thanks, didn't notice it was sub-arctic.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: be cause on November 13, 2016, 11:36:52 AM
Has PMT got pmt ?   Not much happening up north ?
 Much of the Arctic is currently too warm to stop an ice lolly melting and the forecasts suggest little change . DMI 80 @ 15'C above norm .. a 960mb low within 48 hours drawing more warm wet  weather with it .
  Must go back to bed .. nothing to see here folks ....
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Sleepy on November 13, 2016, 12:13:51 PM
Current 2m temps by DMI and anomalies/snowdepth for Sweden (I've had somewhere between 20-30 cm and that's below 60°N).
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: P-maker on November 13, 2016, 01:06:02 PM
Rob:

Quote
Where did you find these graphs ?

Watch out!. The Climate4you site is maintained by Ole Humlum (see Desmogblog for a description). Although he is not himself an outrigtht "Fact-Resistant-Evidence-Denier (FRED), some of his friends posting stuff like this may be in that league...
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 13, 2016, 01:39:03 PM
I got the graphs from Climate4you, but they are from Argo data. I doubt anyone would have changed Argo data, to make their point. The first one was labeled CircumArctic, as having read before how the Argo system works, it most likely could not be deployed in the Arctic proper.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on November 13, 2016, 10:22:42 PM
Quote
"The Bering Sea has been off-the-charts warm," said Nate Mantua, an ecologist at NOAA’s Southwest Fisheries Science Center in Santa Cruz, California. "We've never seen anything like this. We're in uncharted territory. We're in the midst of an extraordinary time."
NOAA has put together an amazing Arctic, Antarctic and global bathymetry resource at the link below. It is light-years more sophisticated than what we do around here or see in climate science products, requiring 334 separate files to build a single map view. Of these, 169 are rendered vector files, 141 items are java scripts, 12 css, 11 png, 1 gif and then the html shell itself.

This is a full-blown GIS setup, a huge improvement over the IBCAO wall poster, for example in finding depth contours on the continental shelves or colocating with various sea ice concentration, thickness, hycom, nullschool and satellite maps such as Worldview.

The polar stereographic used, ESPG3995, does not differ materially from 3413 but is rotated 45º with respect to our favorite orientation (Greenland down). Both the DEM and The animation below shows a sampler of layer choices north of the Bering Strait.

https://maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/bathymetry/

We’re interested in colocated bathymetry because almost a third of the Arctic Ocean is very shallow, less than 100 m in depth at current mean sea level (the greatest depths are the Molloy Hole of 5669 m and Litke Deep at 5,450 m). Both inflowing warm currents follow continental shelf breaks (for reasons given by Rossby in the 1930’s). Shallower waters have greater prospects for wind mixing of vertical stratification with adverse consequences for ice formation, not to mention the massive quantities of subsurface methane clathrate.

The second animation below shows bathymetry contours showing through a cut-out of AMSR2 open water from 22 Oct-12 Nov 2016 for the Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS and Bering Strait regions. It did not work out stubbing in SSTA, RTG-SST, or hycom SST for the Bering Sea itself because the coastline resolutions are far too coarse in these. However forecasts show the unprecedented anomaly in SST dissipating over the coming week. They’ve been between 2 and 10.5º Celsius above average as illustrated in previous time series.

The refreeze is belatedly closing in around the Chukchi region following a flash freeze in the Laptev followed by consolidation. The correspondence is not so strong here as along the Front north of Svalbard, where the ice is stopped by the sharp shelf break with delimited leakage at the St Anna Trough.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on November 14, 2016, 02:05:36 AM
YES! now we're cooking. great stuff A-Team
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on November 14, 2016, 03:33:14 AM

Fantastic work A Team!
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on November 14, 2016, 04:12:59 AM
Yep, fantastic work, A-team and the others working on this - really helps to understand what is going on.


  In the short term, yet another strong storm is predicted to be entering the Arctic Basin through the Fram Strait around tomorrow, with a central pressure bottoming out in the 950s in hPa - see attached graphics.

This will bring waves and strong, warmer, moist winds into the Arctic Basin from the Atlantic side.

For those watching the graph of average surface air temperature north of 80N, that should bump the temperature value up even further above the temperature baseline for this time of year. 
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on November 14, 2016, 04:18:27 AM
you're referring to this, not to forget the upcoming similar event on the pacific side a few days later

Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 14, 2016, 09:31:59 AM
Great work, A-Team - thanks for the work and research.

That said, looking at Climate Reanalyzer 6 days out, I can't say as I see where the heat is dissipating particularly....
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: 6roucho on November 14, 2016, 04:14:06 PM
I got the graphs from Climate4you, but they are from Argo data. I doubt anyone would have changed Argo data, to make their point. The first one was labeled CircumArctic, as having read before how the Argo system works, it most likely could not be deployed in the Arctic proper.
Unfortunately climate obfuscation usually results from cherry-picking subsets, rather than changing data.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Metamemesis on November 14, 2016, 04:47:39 PM

That said, looking at Climate Reanalyzer 6 days out, I can't say as I see where the heat is dissipating particularly....

You may have a point, there. +7.45 degrees air temp anomoly seems...excessive.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 14, 2016, 04:55:48 PM
I think the plume of heat that extends over the Arctic does get resolved somewhat, but the bigger factor is now +++snowcover over Eurasia... the huge Siberian high we've seen this yr is a very effective mechanism for getting rid of heat; as the warm ATL/Arctic air advects over Siberia it is dissipated through albedo mechanisms. Maybe I'm wrong but that would explain why we're seeing such a huge area of -anomalies over Eurasia.

PS if the models are correct, the entirety of the NHEM (or well, most of it) is about to enter the brutal grip of winter... with temps wayyyyyyy below normal across all of Europe/Eurasia and soon, North America as well.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 14, 2016, 04:59:12 PM
I got the graphs from Climate4you, but they are from Argo data. I doubt anyone would have changed Argo data, to make their point. The first one was labeled CircumArctic, as having read before how the Argo system works, it most likely could not be deployed in the Arctic proper.
Unfortunately climate obfuscation usually results from cherry-picking subsets, rather than changing data.

Can you describe more specifically how that applies. I am always looking for more information on ocean heating and if you have more detailed regional data, please share.

P.S. I never have tried to be an advocate for any particular site.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: JimboOmega on November 14, 2016, 05:59:10 PM
I think the plume of heat that extends over the Arctic does get resolved somewhat, but the bigger factor is now +++snowcover over Eurasia... the huge Siberian high we've seen this yr is a very effective mechanism for getting rid of heat; as the warm ATL/Arctic air advects over Siberia it is dissipated through albedo mechanisms. Maybe I'm wrong but that would explain why we're seeing such a huge area of -anomalies over Eurasia.

PS if the models are correct, the entirety of the NHEM (or well, most of it) is about to enter the brutal grip of winter... with temps wayyyyyyy below normal across all of Europe/Eurasia and soon, North America as well.

Albedo shouldn't really matter at this time of year.  Clouds and water vapor do matter, but surface snow (or not) doesn't matter, because what sun does shine at those latitudes is weak. The air at very high latitudes is cooling all the time, there is no input of heat other than what is slowly being released from the ice pack and the ocean beneath it, and heat is always heading off to space.

My understanding of the anomaly: the system is always seeking balance thermodynamically speaking. Heat is being added wherever the sun shines brightest (near the tropic of capricorn, this time of year), and heads out from there, trying to balance (and getting rather turned around thanks to coriolis "forces", giving us the trades, westerlies, etc)

But when these things are all disrupted - when the arctic basin has warm(relative to the continents) water in it, the gradients are all mixed up - the big cells that pump all this energy around start to get confused. 

So the flow fails in Asia - temperatures at the North Pole and Beijing are not that far apart, really. So the air sits, slowly stewing around. In the long Siberian night, it just gets colder and colder, not getting heat from anywhere in particular.

So it comes to be still in Siberia... and very, very cold
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: 6roucho on November 14, 2016, 06:08:22 PM
I got the graphs from Climate4you, but they are from Argo data. I doubt anyone would have changed Argo data, to make their point. The first one was labeled CircumArctic, as having read before how the Argo system works, it most likely could not be deployed in the Arctic proper.
Unfortunately climate obfuscation usually results from cherry-picking subsets, rather than changing data.

Can you describe more specifically how that applies. I am always looking for more information on ocean heating and if you have more detailed regional data, please share.

P.S. I never have tried to be an advocate for any particular site.
I don't have data in this case, Tigertown. It was a general observation, from a working mathematician in my case. Generally speaking, effective obfuscators (not you of course - I'm referring to Climate4you as a source of possibly 'massaged' results) cherry-pick by optimizing start and end dates for data ranges to produce favourable outcomes, and by picking subsets of data ranges favourable to their argument. It's a recurring form of dishonesty in fringe climate science, and can be very difficult to spot, and can find its way into popular and even established science. I certainly wasn't intending to criticize you.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 14, 2016, 06:40:25 PM
No problem Groucho, and I see your point. Seriously though, I have searched for more Argo data in the past and could not find much. If I recall correctly, the only links Argo provides are for raw data which I could not make heads or tails out of. It would be a good cause to take up for someone with the experience and ability.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 14, 2016, 06:44:49 PM
I think the plume of heat that extends over the Arctic does get resolved somewhat, but the bigger factor is now +++snowcover over Eurasia... the huge Siberian high we've seen this yr is a very effective mechanism for getting rid of heat; as the warm ATL/Arctic air advects over Siberia it is dissipated through albedo mechanisms. Maybe I'm wrong but that would explain why we're seeing such a huge area of -anomalies over Eurasia.

PS if the models are correct, the entirety of the NHEM (or well, most of it) is about to enter the brutal grip of winter... with temps wayyyyyyy below normal across all of Europe/Eurasia and soon, North America as well.

Albedo shouldn't really matter at this time of year.  Clouds and water vapor do matter, but surface snow (or not) doesn't matter, because what sun does shine at those latitudes is weak. The air at very high latitudes is cooling all the time, there is no input of heat other than what is slowly being released from the ice pack and the ocean beneath it, and heat is always heading off to space.

My understanding of the anomaly: the system is always seeking balance thermodynamically speaking. Heat is being added wherever the sun shines brightest (near the tropic of capricorn, this time of year), and heads out from there, trying to balance (and getting rather turned around thanks to coriolis "forces", giving us the trades, westerlies, etc)

But when these things are all disrupted - when the arctic basin has warm(relative to the continents) water in it, the gradients are all mixed up - the big cells that pump all this energy around start to get confused. 

So the flow fails in Asia - temperatures at the North Pole and Beijing are not that far apart, really. So the air sits, slowly stewing around. In the long Siberian night, it just gets colder and colder, not getting heat from anywhere in particular.

So it comes to be still in Siberia,

idk about that. of course the sun is weak right now but it is still the main heat source even far N. and i think the implications of +++Eurasian snowcover extend into areas that still receive substantial sun, even now -- consider the mountains of southern/central Asia, which are more likely to become snow-covered with a very cold Siberia, as airmasses sag in various directions.

even if the effect in a specific location is relatively small, the sheer area covered by +++snow this fall has been near record-setting, and that was back in October as well. *yes* that comes at a time when solar insolation is dropping but the differential is still significant vs previous years, IMO.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 14, 2016, 07:44:41 PM
idk about that. of course the sun is weak right now but it is still the main heat source even far N. and i think the implications of +++Eurasian snowcover extend into areas that still receive substantial sun, even now -- consider the mountains of southern/central Asia, which are more likely to become snow-covered with a very cold Siberia, as airmasses sag in various directions.

even if the effect in a specific location is relatively small, the sheer area covered by +++snow this fall has been near record-setting, and that was back in October as well. *yes* that comes at a time when solar insolation is dropping but the differential is still significant vs previous years, IMO.
Opinion I'm afraid doesn't sway me.

To prove your point - that increased albedo due to snow cover significantly reduces heat north of 65 degrees latitude this time of year - you're going to have to show me numbers which back up your claim.

You are also going to have to demonstrate how much additional snow cover is present, what the net effect of that is on heat uptake, and that this *also* changes the heat equation enough to make a difference.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 14, 2016, 07:49:28 PM
idk about that. of course the sun is weak right now but it is still the main heat source even far N. and i think the implications of +++Eurasian snowcover extend into areas that still receive substantial sun, even now -- consider the mountains of southern/central Asia, which are more likely to become snow-covered with a very cold Siberia, as airmasses sag in various directions.

even if the effect in a specific location is relatively small, the sheer area covered by +++snow this fall has been near record-setting, and that was back in October as well. *yes* that comes at a time when solar insolation is dropping but the differential is still significant vs previous years, IMO.
Opinion I'm afraid doesn't sway me.

To prove your point - that increased albedo due to snow cover significantly reduces heat north of 65 degrees latitude this time of year - you're going to have to show me numbers which back up your claim.

You are also going to have to demonstrate how much additional snow cover is present, what the net effect of that is on heat uptake, and that this *also* changes the heat equation enough to make a difference.

not just 65N, mid-latitudes are where it is most prominent, probs 40-65N or so...

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/nh_swe.png)

see impact below re: anomalies

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tropicaltidbits.com%2Fanalysis%2Fmodels%2Fgem%2F2016111412%2Fgem_T2ma_asia_38.png&hash=2d1e6c056b6aec0aae2c69c5b9c778f7)

which are there bc snowcover is much more extensive than normal... already nearing snows in Shanghai where snow even in mid winter is unusual

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tropicaltidbits.com%2Fanalysis%2Fmodels%2Fgem%2F2016111412%2Fgem_asnow_asia_40.png&hash=00c8676b72cdabcc76f17d786cb2cb41)

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 14, 2016, 08:16:06 PM
not just 65N, mid-latitudes are where it is most prominent, probs 40-65N or so...

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/nh_swe.png)

see impact below re: anomalies

which are there bc snowcover is much more extensive than normal... already nearing snows in Shanghai where snow even in mid winter is unusual


You are not quantifying the effect, even considering your adding land mass down to 45N.

Your images show increased snow fall depth - I'm not seeing what they indicate in the way of increased *Persistent* area coverage.  That's where the rubber needs to meet the road in your argument.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: JimboOmega on November 14, 2016, 08:32:58 PM

not just 65N, mid-latitudes are where it is most prominent, probs 40-65N or so...

(pictures snipped for space)

So compared to the arctic-based cci-reanalyzer graphs we're used to (plenty posted upthread), you're showing me a very different image.   Just north of Kazakhstan/Russian border sits a 10C+ blob of warmth, where today's 'nowcast' shows -20C anomaly. That's a huge swing and makes these hard to compare. Granted you've picked a 9-day-in-the-future forecast, but I don't think we'll see a flip like that.

Your graph of snowfall anomaly is hard to compare because it doesn't show the coverage anomaly. Snowfall has been very heavy in Greenland this year (just look at DMI surface mass budgets) but that does little for Albedo. Also, It's currently 16 C in Shanghai with 20s forecast later in the week. It doesn't look like "almost snowing" weather to me.

Granted - Rutgers does show a lot of positive snow cover anomaly as such. I'm willing to accept it as a real thing.

So is there enough light? Messing with a calculator -

75 N - always night (0 W/m^2)
65 N - 26 W/m^2 average today, dropping to 10 W/m^2 by the end of the month
55 N -  89 W/m^2 average, dropping to 65 W/m^2
45 N - 159 W/m^2 average, dropping to 133 W/m^2
and Shanghai? 33N - 262 -> 232

The core of the cold anomaly (as seen on CCI-reanalyzer's GFS-generated anomaly plot) I'd put somewhere near Tomsk, so (say) 56N. It's about 1/6th the peak  of the summer.

Sadly I don't have time to calculate the snow coverage anomaly at those latitudes, compare with albedo numbers, and put an actual number on it, but we could do all those things.

Except... I notice that the snow cover anomaly covers all of Canada, where it's been warm, too.   It makes it a much more difficult argument given that.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: TerryM on November 14, 2016, 09:09:48 PM
Some thoughts without any research.


1 C of snow, 1 M of snow, and 10 M of snow have ~= albedo but an insulative value roughly proportional to their depth.


If the underlying surface is not subject to the very cold arctic air temperatures yet to come, is it possible that a thicker snow cover might preserve a reservoir of the past summer's heat?


I do recall a study posted here some years ago by Lodger that showed that ice in the CAA was much more resistant to thaw if it had not been covered by snow for much of the winter. The insulative property mentioned above was partly to blame, but the snow cover also caused enhanced melt ponds which affected albedo early in the melt season.


If deep snow cover melt leads to more warm water than usual in the spring, and if in addition the covered landforms have retained even a small fraction of last summer's heat, extensive snow cover is probably a positive factor favoring next summer's melt.


Terry



Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 14, 2016, 09:17:15 PM
I don't think land really retains heat unless you are talking permafrost areas.

Re: previous comment -- here is the graph for extent for NHEM.

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/nh_sce.png)

Eurasia has boomed which has mostly compensated for the stunning drop across North America. That should correct over the next 10 days as models show snow reaching back/exceeding normal coverage across Canada and the US.

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/na_sce.png)

& Eurasia...

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/eu_sce.png)

As you can see, the largest extent anomalies occurred in October, when the impact to insolation would've been even greater than now. I may be wrong here but if we are running at +5% coverage over all NHEM land surfaces, the differential in terms of solar insolation is probably more than enough to counter the absolute feedbacks of a broiling Arctic (considering that is the first spot to lose sunlight).

Please rip ^ apart with data points/etc as best as you all can as I am very much enjoying the data in the rebuttals here. :)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: JimboOmega on November 14, 2016, 09:38:04 PM
I don't think land really retains heat unless you are talking permafrost areas.

Re: previous comment -- here is the graph for extent for NHEM.

(images removed)

As you can see, the largest extent anomalies occurred in October, when the impact to insolation would've been even greater than now. I may be wrong here but if we are running at +5% coverage over all NHEM land surfaces, the differential in terms of solar insolation is probably more than enough to counter the absolute feedbacks of a broiling Arctic (considering that is the first spot to lose sunlight).

Please rip ^ apart with data points/etc as best as you all can as I am very much enjoying the data in the rebuttals here. :)

Thanks for posting the more relevant graphs! Weird that we were more than + 1 SD over normal at the start of the season (in August/September), and never really went that far from that number. Any idea why? 

You give the number of 5% above average. I personally don't think this is "more than enough" to counter the heat in the arctic oceans, though it may be "more than enough" to counter the reduced albedo anomaly of the water itself.

However... perhaps most of all, if snow is falling that much more, it is cloudy that much more, and we all know what clouds and water vapor do in the winter. I think "clouds over snow" is a warmer regime than "clear skies over bare earth" in the NH winter.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on November 14, 2016, 09:58:45 PM
may i throw in that 5cm of snow have the same impact on albedo like 50 or more cm of snow and the snow covered area does not seam significantly higher, all the increased snowfall does not automatically indicate wider area, just the amount of snow which as mentioned above does not necessarily have an impact on albedo. sibiria for example is generally snow covered this time of the year, so if there is an increase in area it must be marginal as compared to the entire are that is snow covered anyways this time of the year IMO

and then i agree with all those who doubt a significant impact on albedo in that region this time of the year as well and then overfrozen tundra has a lower albedo than greenish summer vegetation anyways, so any difference, no matter how small, is even smaller due to that fact.

EDIT: as you it was mentioned hereafter, even the theoretically still postive impact of insolation according to the angle is even more reduced through mist, cloud and fog coverage, not even puting into account the short hours that the sun angle is in a range of having any significant effect.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 14, 2016, 10:00:50 PM
I don't think land really retains heat unless you are talking permafrost areas.

Re: previous comment -- here is the graph for extent for NHEM.

(images removed)

As you can see, the largest extent anomalies occurred in October, when the impact to insolation would've been even greater than now. I may be wrong here but if we are running at +5% coverage over all NHEM land surfaces, the differential in terms of solar insolation is probably more than enough to counter the absolute feedbacks of a broiling Arctic (considering that is the first spot to lose sunlight).

Please rip ^ apart with data points/etc as best as you all can as I am very much enjoying the data in the rebuttals here. :)

Thanks for posting the more relevant graphs! Weird that we were more than + 1 SD over normal at the start of the season (in August/September), and never really went that far from that number. Any idea why? 

You give the number of 5% above average. I personally don't think this is "more than enough" to counter the heat in the arctic oceans, though it may be "more than enough" to counter the reduced albedo anomaly of the water itself.

However... perhaps most of all, if snow is falling that much more, it is cloudy that much more, and we all know what clouds and water vapor do in the winter. I think "clouds over snow" is a warmer regime than "clear skies over bare earth" in the NH winter.

IDK if 5% is accurate or not... it looks like it was significantly more than that earlier on and as average increases the incremental difference is less and less as you head into winter... but!

I highly suspect that clouds over snow is still much colder than clear skies over bare earth unless you are talking the permafrost regions... at the same time, those areas with unusually early snowfall aren't always covered by clouds, and may also have clear skies a decent amount of time... and that is where the albedo feedback really kicks in. Look at the massively enlarged Siberian High this yr... sure there are clouds over Russia a decent part of the time, but I think that it largely favors clear skies over the (newly) snowcovered regions of Eurasia.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 14, 2016, 10:03:59 PM
may i throw in that 5cm of snow have the same impact on albedo like 50 or more cm of snow and the snow covered area does not seam significantly higher, all the increased snowfall does not automatically indicate wider area, just the amount of snow which as mentioned above does not necessarily have an impact on albedo. sibiria for example is generally snow covered this time of the year, so if there is an increase in area it must be marginal as compared to the entire are that is snow covered anyways this time of the year IMO

and then i agree with all those who doubt a significant impact on albedo in that region this time of the year as well and then overfrozen tundra has a lower albedo than greenish summer vegetation anyways, so any difference, no matter how small, is even smaller due to that fact.
I think the key thing to look at is September/October... the earlier mid-lower latitude areas see snowcovered the more sunlight is reflected.

This also has an important impact on the Arctic... since more of the NHEM is now snow-covered earlier in the yr, I think it helps force more heat into the Arctic as the "warm" ocean ends up quickly (at least, more quickly than normal) surrounded by snow-covered land, which sheds tremendous amounts of heat. The sandwiching of the polar ice cap between warm oceans and even colder land acts to further increase poleward heat transport, which results in additional heat dissipation over landmasses but additional retention in the Arctic (as we can see from the anomaly charts this yr).

 :-\

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Focean.dmi.dk%2Farctic%2Fplots%2FmeanTarchive%2FmeanT_2016.png&hash=ed3bc1964e488b5d83cfae05c243a1bc)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on November 14, 2016, 10:48:21 PM
is it time to panic yet?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on November 14, 2016, 10:55:37 PM
bbr,

  Yes, the high, and rising, average surface air temperature above 80N is unprecedented for the date in the DMI record, going at least as far back as 1958, as Terry has checked & posted on another thread.

  This is as I predicted yesterday in comment #671 above.

  It is caused by the strong low pressure currently at 954 hPa that is entering the Arctic Basin through the Fram Strait and is additionally opposed by high pressures above 1040 hPa over Siberia - see first graphic below.

  This dipole setup across the Atlantic side of the Arctic is sweeping warmer (and presumably moisture laden) strong winds into the Arctic basin - see the nullschool graphic below. The point marked by the small green circle, North of Svalbard, registers 64 km/h winds at +0.4oC.


  The current air pressure configuration, at its current strength, is probably also unprecedented in the records for the Arctic at this time of year, given the unprecedented DMI temperature value.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tealight on November 14, 2016, 11:27:46 PM
I did some more programming with the DMI 80N charts. The Unit is now Degree Day Freezing like Andrew Slater used, but for the whole year and not a freezing season spanning over two years. In summer the temperature is above freezing so the graphs take a small dip downwards.


Andrew Slaters graphs:
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/ (http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/ARCTIC_TAIR/)

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Williams on November 14, 2016, 11:48:31 PM
The more I look at the DMI 80 degrees and North graph the more I wonder what 0 Fahrenheit has to do with it.  That seems to be the current bottom.

Quote
If you’ve ever stopped to ponder why exactly the freezing point on the Fahrenheit scale is set at 32 degrees–a rather arbitrary number, all things considered–you’ll need to ponder all the way back to the 18th century.

It was then, in the 1720s, that Daniel Gabriel Fahrenheit was ironing out zero point for his temperature scale. The coldest temperature that Fahrenheit could produce in his laboratory was the result of mixing ice, water, and ammonia chloride to make a frigid slurry. This measurement became the zero-point for the scale. The second point of reference was the temperature of water when chilled to the point that ice began to form–pure water forming ice was assigned to 32 degrees. Fahrenheit later assigned 212 degrees as the value for boiling water because the 180 degree difference between the two is 180 degrees because 180 can be easily and evenly divided by a variety of numbers.

After a long period of metrification starting in the 1960s, the only countries that still use Fahrenheit for conventional measurements are the United States, Belize, and the British territory of the Cayman Islands.

BTW -- I see it is up again today.

P.S.  It was also last Winter's top, and I have even less understanding of about 246 Kelvin; which after it popped up was the bottom.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: NeilT on November 15, 2016, 12:08:55 AM
Of course Fahrenheit was also a member of the Royal Society, who's currency was a mixture of Bases 12, 20 and 10.  Nobody thought it odd to have a scale of 212 when there were 240 pennies, 480 ha'pnies and 960 farthings to the £.....

Sorry just a bit of history...  ;D  I digress...
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on November 15, 2016, 12:36:01 AM
is it time to panic yet?

there is never a time to panic, panic makes the probable certain the negative way :-)

as the sayin' goes, fear is a horrible counselor !
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 15, 2016, 12:38:21 AM
is it time to panic yet?

there is never a time to panic, panic makes the probable certain the negative way :-)

as the sayin' goes, fear is a horrible counselor !
i guess the only alternative to panic is a stoic acceptance that the world is going to end sooner rather than later...?  ;D
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Williams on November 15, 2016, 12:47:30 AM
is it time to panic yet?

there is never a time to panic, panic makes the probable certain the negative way :-)

as the sayin' goes, fear is a horrible counselor !
i guess the only alternative to panic is a stoic acceptance that the world is going to end sooner rather than later...?  ;D

World isn't going to end for billions of years.  It doesn't care if we live or die.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on November 15, 2016, 12:48:59 AM
is it time to panic yet?

there is never a time to panic, panic makes the probable certain the negative way :-)

as the sayin' goes, fear is a horrible counselor !
i guess the only alternative to panic is a stoic acceptance that the world is going to end sooner rather than later...?  ;D

that's anyways a matter of fact, latest once our dear mother sun becomes a red giant but there are many more events that mean extinction 100% certain before that will happen in a few billion years :-) but seriously, things will change and for same to the bad and for others to the better but global warming, even though a catastrophy for some, will not mean doomsday, if deniars have one valid point then it is that live prospered enormously once when the earth was definitely much warmer than now, basically ice-free. the point is basically the speed in which this happens which will make it hard to adapt for those who cannot simply move and that will shift values. i.e. real estate that is now ocean side will have zero value (disappear) and real estate that is now 4th or 5th row becomes ocean side. not that i think this is very important next to more important topics but then it's an example that is easy to understand.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 15, 2016, 01:02:50 AM
is it time to panic yet?

there is never a time to panic, panic makes the probable certain the negative way :-)

as the sayin' goes, fear is a horrible counselor !
i guess the only alternative to panic is a stoic acceptance that the world is going to end sooner rather than later...?  ;D

that's anyways a matter of fact, latest once our dear mother sun becomes a red giant but there are many more events that mean extinction 100% certain before that will happen in a few billion years :-) but seriously, things will change and for same to the bad and for others to the better but global warming, even though a catastrophy for some, will not mean doomsday, if deniars have one valid point then it is that live prospered enormously once when the earth was definitely much warmer than now, basically ice-free. the point is basically the speed in which this happens which will make it hard to adapt for those who cannot simply move and that will shift values. i.e. real estate that is now ocean side will have zero value (disappear) and real estate that is now 4th or 5th row becomes ocean side. not that i think this is very important next to more important topics but then it's an example that is easy to understand.
yep, point taken re: red giant, but even then, if we survive this somehow, starlifting opens possibility to extending the sun's life.

in either case, even if all the little humans die, we can take solace in the writing of Isaac Asimov... (or be horrified since we'll be reliving it over and over again -- which is why no point being sad?)

a slight segue but hopefully not too OT

www.physics.princeton.edu/ph115/LQ.pdf (http://www.physics.princeton.edu/ph115/LQ.pdf)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: JimboOmega on November 15, 2016, 01:43:49 AM
So to bring it back to ice...

What do people think the maximum is going to be? Is it going to be severely depressed by this ongoing weather?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Aikimox on November 15, 2016, 01:50:15 AM
is it time to panic yet?

there is never a time to panic, panic makes the probable certain the negative way :-)

as the sayin' goes, fear is a horrible counselor !
i guess the only alternative to panic is a stoic acceptance that the world is going to end sooner rather than later...?  ;D

that's anyways a matter of fact, latest once our dear mother sun becomes a red giant but there are many more events that mean extinction 100% certain before that will happen in a few billion years :-) but seriously, things will change and for same to the bad and for others to the better but global warming, even though a catastrophy for some, will not mean doomsday, if deniars have one valid point then it is that live prospered enormously once when the earth was definitely much warmer than now, basically ice-free. the point is basically the speed in which this happens which will make it hard to adapt for those who cannot simply move and that will shift values. i.e. real estate that is now ocean side will have zero value (disappear) and real estate that is now 4th or 5th row becomes ocean side. not that i think this is very important next to more important topics but then it's an example that is easy to understand.

I disagree entirely. You are making the assumption that we humans can live and even prosper regardless of what happens to the rest of the biosphere on this planet. This is wrong in so many ways. The biggest problem is that the rate of change we are seeing right now is greater than even during PETM. What this means is that 90%+ of the species will be gone in a very short time. We could adapt fast but we can't survive without food and we can't hope to be able to grow enough food when our habitat enters the sudden death mode. With the climate change we will have way more wildfires and draughts until there's very little left to burn. Death of phytoplankton is another concern (which can't be remedied by dumping iron dust into the ocean, and that's our best solution up to date!). Oceans are undergoing major changes from acidification to poor oxygenation at depth. Will we stop polluting them with toxic waste? Microbeads anyone? Air quality will plummet to the point when humans will have to wear oxygen masks outdoors at all times.

And I'm completely excluding the human factor. I'm sure we will all smile, shake hands, and work very hard together, helping each other when entire nations will start dying and mass migrations take place. We will, of course, lay down all weapons and forget the word WAR, and just share the remaining resources equally, right?!  8)

And that's just for starters. But it's nice to ponder about how we gonna survive, while sitting at Starbucks and typing on your macbook. No personal offence, Magnamentis, this is about us all, our illusions and our ignorance. Even scientists, focusing on one narrow field (like arctic) can't see the whole picture. 

@BBr,
 Extra snow != ice age! We have heard that tune many times before and still kept on going into record hot, year after year. It doesn't matter how much snow falls in Siberia this winter. It will preserve the warm ground, so the spring melt will be way faster. This is just another accelerator of global warming. There could be mechanisms for abrupt ice age transition but I doubt those are related to winter snow cover in any way.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 15, 2016, 02:06:30 AM
Can we please stay on topic? I come here to understand how the freeze season is progressing. There are many threads to carry on this conversation in the Consequences portion of this wonderful site.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on November 15, 2016, 02:24:17 AM
So to bring it back to ice...

What do people think the maximum is going to be? Is it going to be severely depressed by this ongoing weather?

I think the maximum extent could be anything from record minimum maximum to middle of the road maximum, more likely on the low side. Volume and ice condition worry me terribly. I think this warmth has more effect on volume than on extent.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Adam Ash on November 15, 2016, 02:32:45 AM
As I noted elsewhere, its interesting to see that BPIOMAS Sea Ice Volume is about to fall out the bottom of the curve set too...

http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1_CY.png (http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1_CY.png)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on November 15, 2016, 02:57:49 AM
The animation below tracks open water over bathymetry for the whole Arctic Ocean from 10 Sept minimum extent / maximum open water to 11 Nov 16.

Variations on this could cut the mask down to the -50 m contour of the continental shelf where mixing of waters and solar absorption (during that season) will be worst.

The open water cut-out could be co-displayed with wind, wave action, significant wave height, atmospheric pressure, cloud cover, total cloud water, ocean currents, temperature, temperature anomaly, salinity, sea level height and so forth.

It is just a matter of retrieve, re-project, rescale, rotate, then activating the animation generating script. By clicking checkboxes, any boolean, arithmetic, or statistical operation can be performed between any combination of channels and masks. WorldView and NOAA bathymetry are already onto this but not yet all the way there.

It seems more accurate results could be obtained by using raw grid data in netCDF files for each of these separate condition monitoring projects, but this turns out to be a tower of Babel in terms of grids, resolutions, instrument issues, error, interpolative choices, data formats and open source availability whereas each project's graphical output puts its best foot forward, skipping black box internals to provide a cross-project compatible bottom line component. While stereographic projection, conformal but not equal area pixels, appears to introduce unnecessary error, it is inconsequential relative to instrument, algorithmic, pixel footprint size and most importantly, to operational goals.

It is sometimes argued that distinguishing climate change from natural variation requires utmost care in processing data so additional noise is not introduced. However the cryosphere is changing too rapidly for a statistical baseline to be established around which natural variation varies.

Trends cannot be detrended without self-defeating strong assumptions. The burden of proof has shifted today: attributing unprecedented conditions to ‘weather’ or ‘natural variation’ is an extraordinary claim requiring extraordinary evidence. The end stages of unravelling cannot plausibly follow incremental trends. And we are not too far away unravelling.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 15, 2016, 03:02:27 AM
I highly suspect that clouds over snow is still much colder than clear skies over bare earth
NOPE.  It's all about the moisture.  In a dry climate, you can see a 50C swing between daytime and night time temperatures when you don't have clouds.  Heat flow through through bare ground has absolutely no practical ability to affect that.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 15, 2016, 03:41:56 AM
NSIDC SIE was up to 8.615M on Nov.12th, but back down to 8.613M on the 13th. There seems to be a trend of a couple days growth and then another short stall. I suspect the stall will soon become more extended, as there is little room left for growth in the Chukchi area, and the Atlantic fed waters are not  allowing much extent growth. The shore that started freezing in the Kara is struggling just to maintain.And some of the front of the main pack has actually retreated slightly from where it was on Nov. 1st. So, it's probably going to go from slow to slower, SIE-wise.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 15, 2016, 04:28:56 AM
I highly suspect that clouds over snow is still much colder than clear skies over bare earth
NOPE.  It's all about the moisture.  In a dry climate, you can see a 50C swing between daytime and night time temperatures when you don't have clouds.  Heat flow through through bare ground has absolutely no practical ability to affect that.
Got it. I just want to note I happily accept all raging/corrections against my inaccuracies as I enjoy being proven wrong, it is the only way to learn.  :)

Tigertown: I think you are correct. DMI shows that we should see a dramatic retraction in the ATL side of the pack with large areas N of 80 becoming open once again thanks to the repeat LPs driving warm air/water into the Arctic.

While ice extent may continue growing in Hudson Bay/Sea of Okhotsk, it seems like the stall will continue in the actual Arctic, with minimal growth occurring in Kara.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: abbottisgone on November 15, 2016, 05:05:33 AM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Focean.dmi.dk%2Farctic%2Fplots%2FmeanTarchive%2FmeanT_2016.png&hash=ed3bc1964e488b5d83cfae05c243a1bc)

 :'( :'(
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on November 15, 2016, 05:20:51 AM
@ Tealight . Awesome graph! I'm so glad to see Andrew Slater's work continued. It seems that you have also improved it. I find it very insightful  how the melting season is captured in your way of presenting this data.

The thought that occurs to me when I see it is that the less ice extent, the less effective DFF's are because there is less ice surface area thickening.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: TerryM on November 15, 2016, 10:01:51 AM
Such strangeness!


A-Team
Whenever a surge or even a low pressure system causes the sea level to rise above the sill that limits Pacific water flow into the Arctic, does the flow measurably increase? Would a long lasting low over Bering Strait add a notable amount of Pacific water to the Arctic? enough to interfere with winter freeze-up?


bbr
Last read Asimov's piece in the 1950's, I'd always remembered the title as "Entropy". So much for long term memory. Didn't appreciate the magic ending then or now, but still loved the work.


The last few weeks have been every bit as scary as September 2012, again I'm unsure whether to wander the streets screaming "The end is Nigh", or to sit home mute, and appear sane.


Will the open water release it's heat to space, or will it contribute to cloud cover that blankets the region and stalls freeze-up until spring.


If open water is the cause of this fall anomaly, why didn't it occur after 2007 or 2012?
Should we expect a rebound year, or an unusual second year of record loss?


The more I know, the more I question.
Terry



Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 15, 2016, 11:38:20 AM
From what I hear, our stratosphere is colder now than in the past because the planet overall is retaining heat. I don't think the Arctic is losing heat very fast at all, as it seems distribute so well in water and is stubborn about leaving it, especially through moist air as a medium, or possibly more accurately a barrier in this case. Someone that knows more can correct me if wrong, but that's what I have pieced together.

Also, on the side of the Arctic fed by the Gulf Stream, I think the heat is constantly being replenished.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on November 15, 2016, 12:17:13 PM
There have been a number of years , since the turn of the century, that have shown early winter snow cover/depth anomalies. The proof of the pudding is the spring trend in snow cover.

As ice removal impacts temps 1,500km away snow removal must show a similar thermal forcing. As such the Snow cover crash set up 2007 for the start of this 'open water' era.

Parts of Siberia saw 5 months of snow over October. This does indeed form a cosy blanket preserving this years permafrost melt and limiting surface re-freeze .The problem comes in spring when that snow cover melts and causes both flooding but also a rapid start to the permafrost melt season ( melt water percolates into the lower, unfrozen ground , attacking the ice below).

My advice? Wait for spring and see whether this extra snow is gone by late April!

Siberia was always cold over the Arctic winter. Transport moisture there ( not normal) and what do you get? We get floods here in the UK when anomalous moisture laden air masses flow over us, Siberia gets deep snow. All are due to a warming atmosphere carrying more moisture and a whacked out Polar Jet delivering that cargo to odd places unused to such extremes.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: TerryM on November 15, 2016, 04:36:16 PM
Nullschool, 10:30 AM EST, 15/11/2016  at the North Pole +0.1 C

Terry
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on November 15, 2016, 04:42:53 PM
is it time to panic yet?

there is never a time to panic, panic makes the probable certain the negative way :-)

as the sayin' goes, fear is a horrible counselor !
i guess the only alternative to panic is a stoic acceptance that the world is going to end sooner rather than later...?  ;D

that's anyways a matter of fact, latest once our dear mother sun becomes a red giant but there are many more events that mean extinction 100% certain before that will happen in a few billion years :-) but seriously, things will change and for same to the bad and for others to the better but global warming, even though a catastrophy for some, will not mean doomsday, if deniars have one valid point then it is that live prospered enormously once when the earth was definitely much warmer than now, basically ice-free. the point is basically the speed in which this happens which will make it hard to adapt for those who cannot simply move and that will shift values. i.e. real estate that is now ocean side will have zero value (disappear) and real estate that is now 4th or 5th row becomes ocean side. not that i think this is very important next to more important topics but then it's an example that is easy to understand.
yep, point taken re: red giant, but even then, if we survive this somehow, starlifting opens possibility to extending the sun's life.

in either case, even if all the little humans die, we can take solace in the writing of Isaac Asimov... (or be horrified since we'll be reliving it over and over again -- which is why no point being sad?)

a slight segue but hopefully not too OT

www.physics.princeton.edu/ph115/LQ.pdf (http://www.physics.princeton.edu/ph115/LQ.pdf)

thanks for the link, i'm very interested in all that stuff because i believe to think beyond what's present knowledge is good for a more holistic approach and way of thinking and will make it easier to define what's ethical. the more unknowns the more excuses the egomaniacs have to sail under the banner of "relativity"

cheers
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on November 15, 2016, 05:28:14 PM
SIE is an anachronistic metric and should be avoided as much as possible, it is irrelevant if enough brash ice forms to produce 100% of the regional cover.  The current DMI temperature at 80'N and above is 17C above the 30 year average and only 8C below freezing.  This is an average temperature with higher and lower values throughout the CAB.

The appropriate metric to watch is sea ice VOLUME as produced by PIOMAS and displayed on our PIOMAS thread by Sir Wipneus (the stalwart).  The current re-freeze temp anomalies have been much higher than even the record-setting 2016 winter anomalies that were about 6C above the 30 year average.

The warmer air temperatures significantly slowed sea ice volume accumulation during this time.  The accumulation of sea ice volume during the refreeze has also slowed so that we are now at a lower sea ice volume level for this day of the year than any day in the previous record, beating the 2012 minimum value.

If these temperature anomalies continue or even strengthen over the winter, we could have a PIOMAS April maximum at 18,000 cubic kilometers, or 4,000 km^3 below the previous April high.  However, if temperatures return to normal or even near normal levels, the rate of accumulation will increase and we will be fairly close to the previous high.  I expect that we will have a new winter max/min of -2,000 km^3 and this is the best case scenario.  worst case is that we end up with a new climate regime in the arctic and experience complete melt out by Sept. of 2017.  I give this between 5-10% probability.

(https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/grf/piomas-trnd4.png)

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 15, 2016, 06:07:31 PM
 And not to mention what a winter storm or two might do to set that back.

 Edit: Like last winter.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhF9nLdZ7ZY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhF9nLdZ7ZY)

 Also, with a low volume, melt momentum can set in early next year and build up fast.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Nick_Naylor on November 15, 2016, 06:09:19 PM
worst case is that we end up with a new climate regime in the arctic and experience complete melt out by Sept. of 2017.  I give this between 5-10% probability.

In other words, as unlikely as Brexit or President Donald Trump. Whew!! I was worried there for a minute  :o
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on November 15, 2016, 06:32:18 PM
SIE is an anachronistic metric and should be avoided as much as possible, it is irrelevant if enough brash ice forms to produce 100% of the regional cover.  The current DMI temperature at 80'N and above is 17C above the 30 year average and only 8C below freezing.  This is an average temperature with higher and lower values throughout the CAB.

The appropriate metric to watch is sea ice VOLUME as produced by PIOMAS and displayed on our PIOMAS thread by Sir Wipneus (the stalwart).  The current re-freeze temp anomalies have been much higher than even the record-setting 2016 winter anomalies that were about 6C above the 30 year average.

The warmer air temperatures significantly slowed sea ice volume accumulation during this time.  The accumulation of sea ice volume during the refreeze has also slowed so that we are now at a lower sea ice volume level for this day of the year than any day in the previous record, beating the 2012 minimum value.

If these temperature anomalies continue or even strengthen over the winter, we could have a PIOMAS April maximum at 18,000 cubic kilometers, or 4,000 km^3 below the previous April high.  However, if temperatures return to normal or even near normal levels, the rate of accumulation will increase and we will be fairly close to the previous high.  I expect that we will have a new winter max/min of -2,000 km^3 and this is the best case scenario.  worst case is that we end up with a new climate regime in the arctic and experience complete melt out by Sept. of 2017.  I give this between 5-10% probability.

(https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/grf/piomas-trnd4.png)

a very good assessment of the situation except one tiny thing worth to mention IMO, even piomas data, meaning the models and/or Algorithms need a though rework as well or perhaps we need more accurate measurement tools (applied satellite based technology) the details are beyond me but i think it's clear what's meant. thanks again for pointing out what i was preaching the entire season, that extent at 16% coverage counts as 100% which makes it a close to useless
value ( i know it's not useless but again i think it's clear what's meant 16=100 cannot be good )
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Peter Ellis on November 15, 2016, 07:14:11 PM
SIE is an anachronistic metric and should be avoided as much as possible [...]
The appropriate metric to watch is sea ice VOLUME as produced by PIOMAS

The two are not comparable: one is data, one is a model.  You need both.  The only data we have on volume is Cryosat, which is still quite experimental and nowhere near as high resolution or as detailed as SIE/SIA measurements.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on November 15, 2016, 08:47:49 PM
Dr. Stroeve's analysis recently published regarding the amount of ice surface area lost per metric tonne of CO2 emissions shows that the utilization of this metric as a hindcast and predictive tool is absolutely and completely incongruous to good science.  The nature of the numerical value of SIE during the 2016 Sept minimum does not, in any way, convey the same state of the sea ice through numeric value attributed to 1996.  The two ice packs are as different as would occur on 2 different planets (or epochs)

What do you suppose was the percentage of SIE in 2016 that could be attributed to brash ice? 10%? 20%?  What percent of the sea ice extent in 1996 was brash?

and then consider what extent of VOLUME in 2016 was contributed to by the existence of brash ice and what contribution (as a percent of total ice volume) did brash ice provide to the ice pack in 1996?

Using SIE for anything but SIE numerical statements without regard to these dramatic, cataclysmic and outside-of-the-95th-percentile model responses we are seeing is beyond foolish it is foolhardy and suicidal.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Pi26 on November 15, 2016, 08:54:39 PM
SIE is an anachronistic metric and should be avoided as much as possible [...]
The appropriate metric to watch is sea ice VOLUME as produced by PIOMAS

The two are not comparable: one is data, one is a model.  You need both.  The only data we have on volume is Cryosat, which is still quite experimental and nowhere near as high resolution or as detailed as SIE/SIA measurements.

I am absolutly sure Jai always uses both - but prefers from November clearly volume.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: NeilT on November 15, 2016, 09:34:35 PM
It is sometimes argued that distinguishing climate change from natural variation requires utmost care in processing data so additional noise is not introduced. However the cryosphere is changing too rapidly for a statistical baseline to be established around which natural variation varies.

Is it not true that if we accept the fact that natural variation is endemic in the figures, then it would, over time, return to the median baseline.

Therefore if the baseline is a line which tilts from high ice on the left to low ice on the right, then we are in a situation where natural variation is only producing noise and that the "statistical trend" is clear.  Decline.

Those who doubt it have an "unreasonable doubt" and you're never going to overturn that with statistics.  Only with direct impact.

Is it not true that every time there is a major climatic incident in the US, the number of people who believe in Anthropogenic Climate Change, in the US, increases...

As my brother in law used to say "It's like educating Pork"...
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on November 15, 2016, 09:37:03 PM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Focean.dmi.dk%2Farctic%2Fplots%2FmeanTarchive%2FmeanT_2016.png&hash=ed3bc1964e488b5d83cfae05c243a1bc)

And Nullschool giving a reading of 0.1 c at the pole at 3:30pm gmt

We know that the pole saw high temps last December 24th so we have about a month to get those temps down to average or we have lost a whole winters 'Deep cold' this freeze season as we enter the months of temp spikes before spring....... what will that mean for the ice?

Temps higher than Hudson for the winter and ice of similar thickness to Hudson's Will the basin do a 'Hudson' next summer , no matter what the weather?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: NeilT on November 15, 2016, 09:37:52 PM
So to bring it back to ice...

What do people think the maximum is going to be? Is it going to be severely depressed by this ongoing weather?

OK I'll bite.

Slightly above the lowest we've seen but still around 1-2SD below the trend.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 15, 2016, 09:41:29 PM
So to bring it back to ice...

What do people think the maximum is going to be? Is it going to be severely depressed by this ongoing weather?

OK I'll bite.

Slightly above the lowest we've seen but still around 1-2SD below the trend.
Too soon to say definitively, but we can agree the refreeze is starting very badly.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 15, 2016, 10:01:44 PM
Either way, it won't last long. It can't be the same durable ice that has held on for so long in the past melt seasons. No way.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on November 15, 2016, 11:14:53 PM
Either way, it won't last long. It can't be the same durable ice that has held on for so long in the past melt seasons. No way.

Exacta Mon Day!

...........and that is before Jan /Feb gives us a vague chance of a Beaufort high ( as the PV does one from Siberia) to rip the ice apart into easily melt-able portions.......
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Williams on November 15, 2016, 11:37:09 PM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Focean.dmi.dk%2Farctic%2Fplots%2FmeanTarchive%2FmeanT_2016.png&hash=ed3bc1964e488b5d83cfae05c243a1bc)

And Nullschool giving a reading of 0.1 c at the pole at 3:30pm gmt

We know that the pole saw high temps last December 24th so we have about a month to get those temps down to average or we have lost a whole winters 'Deep cold' this freeze season as we enter the months of temp spikes before spring....... what will that mean for the ice?

Temps higher than Hudson for the winter and ice of similar thickness to Hudson's Will the basin do a 'Hudson' next summer , no matter what the weather?

I saw that and thought oh shitte and ran over here to see...

Is that going to head up to freezing ocean wide or what???
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on November 15, 2016, 11:44:56 PM
not sure if I posted this, I think it is important to understand why

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 15, 2016, 11:56:38 PM
not sure if I posted this, I think it is important to understand why
Looking at Earthlink, there's a daisy chain of lows starting about 45N swinging across to the Norwegian Sea then feeding into the low currently north of Greenland.  The pattern persists more or less for the next week looking at CCI.

It appears to be a somewhat persistent heat pump pulling heat and moisture from the mid latitudes to stream 5000KM north to dump out directly over the pack.  My "cyclone cannon" has turned into a firehose.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Geoff on November 15, 2016, 11:57:39 PM
Uhhh the red on that map is at ~370K, which is ~100C, which is water boiling temperatures. I don't think the world is melting just yet?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 16, 2016, 12:05:47 AM
NSIDC SIE was up to 8.615M on Nov.12th, but back down to 8.613M on the 13th. There seems to be a trend of a couple days growth and then another short stall. I suspect the stall will soon become more extended, as there is little room left for growth in the Chukchi area, and the Atlantic fed waters are not  allowing much extent growth. The shore that started freezing in the Kara is struggling just to maintain.And some of the front of the main pack has actually retreated slightly from where it was on Nov. 1st. So, it's probably going to go from slow to slower, SIE-wise.

JAXA being back up now and all, they were nice enough to make this GIF(actually self service) , showing where the ice has grown(actually a thickness map, but serves the purpose) since November 1st. Watch the ice front on the European side closely.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on November 16, 2016, 12:39:59 AM
Uhhh the red on that map is at ~370K, which is ~100C, which is water boiling temperatures. I don't think the world is melting just yet?

potential temperature, not absolute

https://www.shodor.org/os411/courses/_master/tools/calculators/pottemp/pt1calc.html (https://www.shodor.org/os411/courses/_master/tools/calculators/pottemp/pt1calc.html)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: FishOutofWater on November 16, 2016, 01:22:29 AM
Folks, that potential temperature map shows the polar vortex being injected with tropical heat. That could cause a major winter warming in the stratosphere. Stay tuned. Wow.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 16, 2016, 03:23:43 AM
Folks, that potential temperature map shows the polar vortex being injected with tropical heat. That could cause a major winter warming in the stratosphere. Stay tuned. Wow.
Germane to your comment.  Some models are predicting an SSW out about a week, and continued failure of the polar vortex to organize through January.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation (https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Watching_from_Canberra on November 16, 2016, 11:30:06 AM
Wow, JAXA is showing Arctic ice extent at a record low for this time of year, with growth flattening out for a few days.  And the Antarctic is also at a record low for this day, by a huge margin, and plummeting.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Adam Ash on November 16, 2016, 12:11:02 PM
...and meanwhile out there in the darkness the CAA Garlic Press is probably still doing its thing. 

I stepped through WorldView until the edge of darkness overtook the region, and there was evidence of southbound ice export through the CAA until late October.

So not only are we seeing weak ice formation conditions but ice export has been extraordinary as well - particularly given that the CAA-wide garlic press process is a new feature only observed to this degree in 2016. 

None of this bodes well for 2017 for the Arctic, or for the biosphere generally.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: pauldry600 on November 16, 2016, 02:46:53 PM
Too early to say what max will be but i reckon
around 13.5m is optimistic ....so ill guess that
Coz im a glass half full guy
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: NeilT on November 16, 2016, 03:05:40 PM
This stall is interesting.

See the attached file (picasa screwed by google, imgur pw rules arcane keep forgetting).

Note the day 310ish onwards.

I'm expecting that the end of the year will follow a decadal pattern that you see.  Slower growth back becoming worse and worse as each decade passes and the ice becomes less and less.

This is what I've based my predictions on all year.  The fast start, the stall in the high loss months, the August melt (not I must admit predicted correctly as to how it would lose the ice, just that it would), followed by a later re-freeze.

If that pattern is, in truth, repeating, we're going to see a fairly monumental low in ice extent all the way to the end of the year.

My reason for predicting that 2017 will not be an outright low at maximum is that this is not the pattern I was seeing.  So if it is repeating, then the spring will look better but be worse.  2007 like.

It's going to be interesting to watch anyway.  However it goes.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on November 16, 2016, 03:39:23 PM
Quote
Terry asks: can low pressure systems in the Bering sea cause barotrophic flows of Pacific waters over the 50 m sill barrier into the Chukchi enough to affect winter freeze-up?
Bering Strait inflow can be quite significant at almost a cubic km per second (0.8 sverdrups, about 2/3 all the world’s rivers, according to three Bering Strait moorings over 20 years) but variability of volume and location of currents is quite high, even over the course of a single day. There is no simple scheme at present that explains or predicts inflows according to 2015-16 reviews of R Woodgate, the principal oceanographer for the Straits. One component, the warm Alaskan Coastal Current, follows the coast well into the Beaufort.

Moorings are retrieved once a year, so our best daily option for detecting another surge in heat transport this winter is probably Hycom sea surface salinity and temperature animations. Right now, strong winds blowing south out the Straits will reduce inflows, which in any event are only one contributing factor to freeze-up despite the huge difference in heat content and conductivity of water relative to atmosphere.

Note a substantial fraction of the Arctic Ocean lies within the 50 m bathymetry contour — nearly all the Chukchi and ESS but not so much the Beaufort. Thus a cubic km per second for a day fills 50 m x 20 sq km x 86.400 ksec, or a surface patch 1730 sq km in area if extending to the sea floor, so about a year’s worth at actual mean inflow to amount to the Chukchi’s 528,000 sq km (as defined in Serreze 2016). Depending on mixing and buoyancy, the heat could be localized in near-surface water affecting the ice front with increased salinity slightly lowering freezing temperatures.
Quote
NeilT asks: doesn’t natural variation about a baseline continue even in times of rapid change?
Yes and no. The weather will continue to be chaotic, indeed more so than ever (because of increased energy and water vapor in the system aka sampling from a larger phase space). However variation on a 1950-1980 baseline or a 1978-2008 satellite record has ever-decreasing relevance. There would be a nice new baseline in the works eg 2016-2048 if only climate change would slow down. However 2017, 2018, 2019 … may be so different from 2016 etc (after discounting natural variability applicable to that year) such that each will require its own baseline yet items such as mean and std deviation are observationally unobtainable over such short time frames.

So a decomposition into baseline plus weather is no longer a viable option. The underlying reason is Arctic feedbacks are overwhelmingly of the runaway kind as the system approaches the seasonally ice-free summer/fall and styrofoam-covered winter ice of the Arctic heat budget end-game.

It's unfortunate that so many stopped following this unprecedented fall refreezing season after some silly map integral record was set; one number on one day cannot capture much of anything other than a buried headline. Late February will bring a superficially similar ice cover to earlier years, covering up significant consequences of this fall. Here R Scribbler is on to something better with the ‘end of winter as we know it’.

Right now, the Arctic Ocean is experiencing a very strong cyclonic event bring warm wet air up from mid-latitude. Nasa just put up a very nice animation of a similar event in late Dec 2015 which seems to have fallen below the forum radar screens back then, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A561WmydceE (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A561WmydceE)

The current 15 Nov 2016 event is shown unfolding below. Watch the color overlays of wind for colors from the south that have penetrated to the north. As noted in the Nasa voice-over, warm moist air from mid-latitude is deleterious to ice formation and net radiation from open water to space. Three ‘moisture’ channels are included in the slide show though quantitative effects are murky. The Arctic Ocean was described as arid in years gone by.

Since the main ice pack is fairly solid by now, that which doesn't fracture and rotate about Kap Morris Jesup will pivot with the applied wind as a block, away from the Svalbard-FJI axis on the Atlantic side, including withdrawal from the St Anna Trough; Fram export of the very oldest, thickest ice will be high; and on the Pacific side, marginal brash ice will get pushed into the Chukchi, still warm from the Bering Sea anomaly. Thus the melt season is continuing somewhat in dodgy ice of the Barents and East Siberian Sea in mid-November even as refreezing proceeds.

At this time of year, AMRS2 open water provides an accurate one-click counterpart to algorithmic extent. We'll need to check back in a week to see how the ice surface responded to this cyclonic event. The 50 m bathymetry below scale is set to co-register with UHH AMSR2.

As a technical note, nullschool time series are best made by setting up the view, moving the date by (shift) J or K, capturing whole-window screenshots for co-registered layers that can be cropped. If the url contains ‘current’, it is unstable; if the lat,lon are chosen sensibly, the image won’t need a rotation to register with products such as ice cover; even the scale parameter can be adjusted to improve fit.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/11/15/1200Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/stereographic=-45.00,89.17,1808 (https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/11/15/1200Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/stereographic=-45.00,89.17,1808)

ftp://ftp-projects.zmaw.de/seaice/AMSR2/3.125km/Arc_20161115_res3.125.png (http://ftp://ftp-projects.zmaw.de/seaice/AMSR2/3.125km/Arc_20161115_res3.125.png)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: NeilT on November 16, 2016, 04:48:05 PM
ATeam,

Apologies I was thinking historical baseline for comparison to current deviation.  There is no way in hell we can baseline for the future as the decline is not linear.  I was thinking more about comparing current deviation from the previous trent (79 - 2000) rather than trying to do the thankless task of projecting a baseline forward.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on November 16, 2016, 05:19:13 PM
This stall is interesting.

See the attached file (picasa screwed by google, imgur pw rules arcane keep forgetting).

Note the day 310ish onwards.

I'm expecting that the end of the year will follow a decadal pattern that you see.  Slower growth back becoming worse and worse as each decade passes and the ice becomes less and less.

This is what I've based my predictions on all year.  The fast start, the stall in the high loss months, the August melt (not I must admit predicted correctly as to how it would lose the ice, just that it would), followed by a later re-freeze.

If that pattern is, in truth, repeating, we're going to see a fairly monumental low in ice extent all the way to the end of the year.

My reason for predicting that 2017 will not be an outright low at maximum is that this is not the pattern I was seeing.  So if it is repeating, then the spring will look better but be worse.  2007 like.

It's going to be interesting to watch anyway.  However it goes.

the only crook with all those "old" patterns and models is that they less and less are applicable which is why we see every season the back and forth argument between observers and anticipators and those who rely on models and patterns that were from the "good'ol" times LOL

this is meant as an add-on to your post no as a contradiction or denying, just that this should more and more put into considerations when it comes to predictions. the stall i predicted 10 days ago when some were already only seeing the steep climb is such an example, while who was looking and water temps and weather forecasts could see it coming.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on November 16, 2016, 05:27:32 PM

the only crook with all those "old" patterns and models is that they less and less are applicable which is why we see every season the back and forth argument between observers and anticipators and those who rely on models and patterns that were from the "good'ol" times LOL

this is meant as an add-on to your post no as a contradiction or denying, just that this should more and more put into considerations when it comes to predictions. the stall i predicted 10 days ago when some were already only seeing the steep climb is such an example, while who was looking and water temps and weather forecasts could see it coming.

So I have to wonder what N.Hemisphere weather models make of the Arctic at the mo? Do they fall back on past 'averages' when they run beyond current data as , from what we can see, the Arctic is running well above past 'averages ( 30 yr climate means?)

As such how can we put trust in the models as , at some point, the data they are running with is trying to hold the basin to the averages we used to see and not what we are seeing?

We are being told that things are about to 'flip' and Europe turn above average whilst the US sees its first cold plunge across the lower 48....... can we trust this or do we just look out of the window for our forecast?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on November 16, 2016, 05:45:11 PM
Folks, that potential temperature map shows the polar vortex being injected with tropical heat. That could cause a major winter warming in the stratosphere. Stay tuned. Wow.

Stay tuned here:  http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php (http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php)

note the sampled animated gif was from late October.  It is posted as an example of what is causing these abnormal temps.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on November 16, 2016, 05:49:58 PM

My advice? Wait for spring and see whether this extra snow is gone by late April!

well if historic trends are any indication. . .

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=eurasia&ui_month=10 (http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=eurasia&ui_month=10)



Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: NeilT on November 16, 2016, 06:24:59 PM
the only crook with all those "old" patterns and models is that they less and less are applicable

No argument there.  Which is why I picked two years, on a decadal cadence, to compare with 2016, one more decade on.

Specifically what it was doing in winter and how that trend was pushing further and further away from the norm.

If you put even 2012 into that mix or 2007 into that mix you see a normal steep growth of ice once it starts growing.

However once a decade there is this "pause" in the re-growth and the conditions which cause it are getting worse and worse as each decade goes by.  Which means that 2016 should have some really spectacular stall and blocking of re-growth over the next two weeks.  If it's getting worse each decade and this really is a repeating pattern.

Interestingly, for me, that means the nearest we'll get to some areas of ice free all year round, inside the boundaries of the Arctic itself (assuming that it will take many more decades to make it the entire basin), are likely to come in 2026 after a year like 2016 but in a situation where the ice volume is closer to the 0 mark.

Well if there really is a decadal pattern and if what I think I'm seeing plays out this year making it a third in a row over two decades.

Only time will tell.

Of course that then leads into speculation as to whether 2017 will also be like 2007.  Which is, after all, only speculation.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on November 16, 2016, 09:39:22 PM

Stay tuned here:  http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php (http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php)

note the sampled animated gif was from late October.  It is posted as an example of what is causing these abnormal temps.

I wonder how things would be different from October given the upcoming trend forecasted by GFS:
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: JimboOmega on November 16, 2016, 09:53:25 PM

Stay tuned here:  http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php (http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php)

note the sampled animated gif was from late October.  It is posted as an example of what is causing these abnormal temps.

I wonder how things would be different from October given the upcoming trend forecasted by GFS:

Can you explain what that graph means? What is a "negative" zonal flow? Does that mean that the flow is more meridional than zonal? What does it say about the absolute magnitude of the average wind vector?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on November 16, 2016, 10:04:31 PM
Can you explain what that graph means? What is a "negative" zonal flow? Does that mean that the flow is more meridional than zonal? What does it say about the absolute magnitude of the average wind vector?
It's forecasting a stratospheric zonal wind reversal at 65N latitude.

@Judah Cohen
"Season of superlatives looks to continue. Have to believe GFS can't miss wind reversal by this magnitude but take nothing for granted."
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on November 16, 2016, 10:52:10 PM
Right now, the Arctic Ocean is experiencing a very strong cyclonic event bring warm wet air up from mid-latitude.
The current 15 Nov 2016 event is shown unfolding below. Watch the color overlays of wind for colors from the south that have penetrated to the north. As noted in the Nasa voice-over, warm moist air from mid-latitude is deleterious to ice formation and net radiation from open water to space. Three ‘moisture’ channels are included in the slide show though quantitative effects are murky. The Arctic Ocean was described as arid in years gone by.

Rain today and yesterday in the Franz Josef Land. 81 North.

Max temp of +1.6 C is a new November record there.

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=20046&lang=en&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2016&mes=11&day=16&hora=18 (http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=20046&lang=en&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2016&mes=11&day=16&hora=18)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Williams on November 16, 2016, 11:09:39 PM
So I have to wonder what N.Hemisphere weather models make of the Arctic at the mo? Do they fall back on past 'averages' when they run beyond current data as , from what we can see, the Arctic is running well above past 'averages ( 30 yr climate means?)
Weather models will do just fine -- as long as you do not look beyond about 4 days, maybe even 9 but that is a stretch.  Anything looking further out has just become toast.  I think the brown stuff hit the fan about last Winter Solstice, but that is a mere guess.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: NeilT on November 16, 2016, 11:12:29 PM
Well it's official now.  CO2 average monthly (Global), for 2016 bottomed out at 400.44 and is on the rise again.  That is the last time anyone on this site, or their children or their grandchildren, will see 3xxppm again.

I'll be interested to see just how much we climb in 2017.  Was it just the Nino?  Is the Ocean finally beginning to reject new CO2 absorption?  Will the levelling of emissions from humans actually stop the annual rises or will they continue anyway with the same forcing?  I'm pretty sure the average annual rise is going to be circa 3ppm for 2016.  For 2015 it was 2.96 and 2016 was higher, driven by the El Nino.

The lowest differential, this year so far, was 3.08 in January.  Peaked at 3.6 in July/August and is at 3.57 in September.

To me, unless something really drastically changes for the last quarter, that looks like >3ppm average annual rise.

That certainly won't help with this years freezing season.

Add to that the 15mm SLR in the last 18 months (reported on the blog) and things are looking a tad more towards abrupt step change than towards gradual change.

We're just ending two "interesting" years.  I have no doubt that 2017 is also going to be special in it's own way.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on November 16, 2016, 11:32:48 PM
Maybe Mother N. likes Hooke's Law?

Maybe the Feb QBO 'event' was Her twanging the 'Elastic Limit'?

Maybe the upcoming 65N SSW is Her giving it another 'Twang'?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: JimboOmega on November 16, 2016, 11:33:39 PM
Right now, the Arctic Ocean is experiencing a very strong cyclonic event bring warm wet air up from mid-latitude.
The current 15 Nov 2016 event is shown unfolding below. Watch the color overlays of wind for colors from the south that have penetrated to the north. As noted in the Nasa voice-over, warm moist air from mid-latitude is deleterious to ice formation and net radiation from open water to space. Three ‘moisture’ channels are included in the slide show though quantitative effects are murky. The Arctic Ocean was described as arid in years gone by.

Rain today and yesterday in the Franz Josef Land. 81 North.

Max temp of +1.6 C is a new November record there.

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=20046&lang=en&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2016&mes=11&day=16&hora=18 (http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=20046&lang=en&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2016&mes=11&day=16&hora=18)

There's a lot of ice around franz josef land (per ASMR2), but cci-reanalyzer shows it above 0C now and indeed, around a lot of the ice edge in that area.

Given that extent isn't responding quite so drastically to such temperatures... and understanding we're in uncharted territory here... is it possible that ice forms and/or survives even at near-freezing temperatures because it loses more heat radiatively (to space) than it gains conductively (from air)?

I'd be interested to know what the energy flows look like at the ice surface for various temperature regimes... We should be able to look at factors like ice surface temperature, clouds/IR emissions and air temperature to determine if the ice pack is actually gaining or losing energy at the top.

And if it is losing energy... compare that to the historical values to determine how much less ice it is capable of forming.

Everyone has been saying volume in particular should be terrible, but do we have any numbers to back that up? Other than PIOMAS which just crossed into record territory (and is not way, way beyond it as temps are)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on November 16, 2016, 11:59:41 PM
http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/ (http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/)

The Blue on the right hand image ( the second line of images?) show me that Piomas may take a further dip if Fram opens up over winter?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Williams on November 17, 2016, 12:17:05 AM

I'll be interested to see just how much we climb in 2017.  Was it just the Nino?  Is the Ocean finally beginning to reject new CO2 absorption?  Will the levelling of emissions from humans actually stop the annual rises or will they continue anyway with the same forcing?  I'm pretty sure the average annual rise is going to be circa 3ppm for 2016.  For 2015 it was 2.96 and 2016 was higher, driven by the El Nino.


CO2 is interesting as the hammer that hit the bullet...but the bullet is still H2O.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on November 17, 2016, 12:30:43 AM
Here is an update on the 954 hPa cyclone that just blew through the Fram Strait into the northeastern Arctic Ocean. For reference, the the 23 Aug 2016 event attained a low of 969 hPa and the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012 bottomed out at 966 hPa. Probably should wait a week to see what reanalysis of nullschool GFS data looks like.

It's problematic to compare the effect of storms of different location, duration and timing. However this one is bringing prolonged strong winds, up to 83 kph, across a long open reach perpendicular to a thousand km ice front which is very unfavorable to newly formed or even thin ice.

More detail is available on the 28 Dec 2015 cyclone: 'during the height of the storm, the mean air temperatures in the Kara and Barents seas were 10ºC warmer than the baseline for the date (since 2003). The extremely warm and humid air mass associated with the cyclone caused an amount of energy equivalent to the power used in one year by half a million American homes to be transferred from the atmosphere to the surface of the sea ice. As a result, the area’s sea ice thinned by almost 10 centimeters on average.

At the same time, the storm winds pushed the edges of the sea ice north, compacting the ice pack. “During the cyclone, the sea ice retreated northward, causing a loss in coverage equaling the area of the state of Florida,” said Linette Boisvert, lead author of the study..

Several talks at AGU2016 from floe drift camps are very pertinent to storm effects on ice in the Svalbard region:

C34A-07: Six Months of Ocean Mixing Rates and Heat Flux in the Arctic North of Svalbard
Wednesday, 14 December 2016

Heat fluxes and mixing processes between the ocean and the sea ice are key to understanding the energy budget of the new first year sea ice regime in the Arctic. Here we present observations collected between January and June 2015 during the Norwegian Young sea Ice (N-ICE2015) expedition in the Arctic Ocean north of Svalbard.

Oceanographic, atmospheric, sea ice, snow and biological data were collected above, on, and below the ice using R/V Lance as the base for the ice camps that were drifting south towards the Fram Strait. Over six months, four different drifts took place, from the Nansen Basin, through the marginal ice zone, to the open ocean.

Throughout the drifts, the oceanography team collected turbulence measurements to estimate mixing and heat fluxes in the ice-ocean boundary layer and between the sub-surface warm Atlantic Water layer and the ice-ocean boundary layer close to freezing point. Water tracer data was collected to map water mass properties, and the distribution of the Atlantic Water inflow.

Using 600 under-ice microstructure profiles, mixing rates and heat fluxes were estimated in the upper ocean (300 m). These were combined with high resolution heat flux estimates near the ice-ocean interface from turbulence instrument clusters.

We show that both in winter and spring, large atmospheric storms enhanced mixing throughout the mixed layer and beyond. In spring, the presence of shallow inflowing Atlantic Water over the Yermak Plateau combined with enhanced mixing from wind forcing resulted in the largest heat flux to sea ice recorded and spectacular basalt melt events. Such ocean heat fluxes play a significant role in the overall energy budget of the sea ice in this region.

C41A-0640: Hydrographic and Current Observations Collected during the N-ICE2015 Expedition in the Arctic Ocean north of Svalbard (Invited)
Thursday, 15 December 2016

New oceanographic observations from the Eurasian Basin north of Svalbard collected between January and June 2015 during the Norwegian Young sea Ice (N-ICE2015) are presented. For six months, oceanographic, atmospheric, sea ice, snow and biological data were collected above, on, and below the sea ice using R/V Lance as the base for the ice camps that were drifting south towards the Fram Strait.

Altogether, four different drifts took place, from the Nansen Basin, through the marginal ice zone, to the open ocean. Throughout the drifts, the oceanography team collected water tracer data and current data to map water mass properties, and the distribution of the Atlantic Water inflow.

The new winter observations contribute to existing climatologies for the Arctic Ocean, and show a 100 m deep winter mixed layer. The recorded current observations cover the water column down to 200 m and show largely barotropic flow, enhanced in strength when the camps drifted over the shallow Yermak Plateau.

The two branches of inflowing Atlantic Water are partly captured, confirming that the outer Yermak branch traces the plateau, and the inner Svalbard branch the coast. The Atlantic Water is found directly below the mixed layer down to 800 m depth, and is warmest along the slope. In late May the drift was over the Yermak Plateau and sea ice melt was observed as the drift approached the ice edge and hydrographic conditions changed dramatically.

C34A-08: Seasonal thickness changes of Arctic sea ice north of Svalbard and implications for satellite remote sensing, ecosystem, and environmental management
Wednesday, 14 December 2016

Sea-ice thickness is a crucial parameter to consider when assessing the status of Arctic sea ice, whether for environmental management, monitoring projects, or regional or pan-arctic assessments. Modern satellite remote sensing techniques allow us to monitor ice extent and to estimate sea-ice thickness changes; but accurate quantifications of sea-ice thickness distribution rely on in situ and airborne surveys.

From January to June 2015, an international expedition (N-ICE2015) took place in the Arctic Ocean north of Svalbard, with the Norwegian research vessel RV Lance frozen into drifting sea ice. In total, four drifts, with four different floes were made during that time.

Sea-ice and snow thickness measurements were conducted on all main ice types present in the region, first year ice, multiyear ice, and young ice. Measurement methods included ground and helicopter based electromagnetic surveys, drillings, hot-wire installations, snow-sonde transects, snow stakes, and ice mass balance and snow buoys.

Ice thickness distributions revealed modal thicknesses in spring between 1.6 and 1.7 m, which is lower than reported for the region from comparable studies in 2009 (2.4 m) and 2011 (1.8 m). Knowledge about the ice thickness distribution in a region is crucial to the understanding of climate processes, and also relevant to other disciplines.

Sea-ice thickness data collected during N-ICE2015 can also give us insights into how ice and snow thicknesses affect ecosystem processes. In this presentation, we will explore the influence of snow cover and ocean properties on ice thickness, and the role of sea-ice thickness in air-ice-ocean interactions. We will also demonstrate how information about ice thickness aids classification of different sea ice types from SAR satellite remote sensing, which has real-world applications for shipping and ice forecasting, and how sea ice thickness data contributes to climate assessments.

C41A-0641: Winter ocean-ice interactions under thin sea ice observed by IAOOS platforms during NICE2015:salty surface mixed layer and active basal melt
Thursday, 15 December 2016

IAOOS platforms, measuring physical parameters at the atmosphere-snow-ice-ocean interface deployed as part of the N-ICE2015 campaign, provide new insights on winter conditions North of Svalbard. The three regions crossed during the drifts, the Nansen Basin, the Sofia Deep and the Svalbard northern continental slope featured distinct hydrographic properties and ice-ocean exchanges.
 In the Nansen Basin the quiescent warm layer was capped by a stepped halocline (60 and 110 m) and a deep thermocline (110 m). Ice was forming and the winter mixed layer salinity was larger by ~0.1 g/kg than previously observed.

Over the Svalbard continental slope, the Atlantic Water (AW) was very shallow (20 m from the surface) and extended offshore from the 500 m isobath by a distance of about 70 km, sank along the slope (40 m from the surface) and probably shedded eddies into the Sofia Deep. In the Sofia Deep, relatively warm waters of Atlantic origin extended from 90 m downward.

Sea-ice melt was widespread over the Svalbard continental slope and ocean-to-ice heat fluxes reached values of 400 Wm-2 (mean of ~150 Wm-2 over the continental slope). Sea-ice melt events were associated with near 12-hour fluctuations in the mixed-layer temperature and salinity corresponding to the periodicity of tides and near-inertial waves potentially generated by winter storms, large barotropic tides over steep topography and/or geostrophic adjustments.


C34A-06: Observations of snow-ice formation in a thinner Arctic sea ice regime during the N-ICE2015 campaign: influence of basal ice melt and storms
Wednesday, 14 December 2016

Seven ice mass balance instruments deployed on different first-year and second-year ice floes, within a distance of 50 km near 83°N representing variable snow and ice conditions, documented the evolution of snow and ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean north of Svalbard in Jan-Mar 2015.

Frequent profiles of temperature and thermal resistivity proxy were recorded to distinguish changes in snow depth and ice thickness with 2 cm vertical resolution. Four instruments documented snow-ice formation which was clearly detectable in the simultaneous changes in thermal resistivity proxy, increased temperature and heat propagation through the underlying ice.

Snow-ice formation restored a positive freeboard after storm-induced break-up of snow-loaded floes and/or after loss of buoyancy due to basal ice melt. In the case of break-up, when the ice was cold and not permeable, the rapid snow-ice formation, probably due to lateral intrusion of seawater, led to snow-ice layers at the ocean freezing temperature (-1.88°C).

After the storm the instruments registered basal sea-ice melt over warm Atlantic waters. Basal ablation reached 71 cm and ocean heat fluxes peaked at 400 Wm-2. The warm ice was permeable and the gradual snow-ice formation probably involved vertical intrusion of brines and led to colder snow-ice (-3°C).

In both cases, the exothermal reaction warmed the underlying sea-ice. N-ICE2015 campaign provided the first documentation of significant snow-ice formation in the Arctic ice pack with a fraction of snow-ice to total ice thickness 28%. Snow-ice formation may become a more important process in a thinner-ice Arctic.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Andre on November 17, 2016, 12:31:39 AM
DMI chart is still heading in the wrong direction. At this point it is just starting to look beyond scary.

Robert Scribbler was really on to something with "the end of winter as we know it".
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: plinius on November 17, 2016, 12:49:24 AM
Robert Scribbler is not onto something, at most he might be on something (and I wouldn't want to try it). Does he pay you for spreading his vain fearmongering?
For most of Eurasia it's so far by the way not the end of winter as you know it, but a winter harder than we were used to it even 40 years ago. Part of an extreme WACCy facilitated by the missing ice. Something we have seen throughout the past decade, though not yet as bad as this year.
And @NeilT - it's rather inconsequential if the CO2 level is 401 or 400 this year. At a sensitivity of <2K (no, you can't even use ECS) this makes for an astonishing 0.005K or so. And no, there is no physical process shaping a 10-year pattern in ice loss, that's just your phantasy. Nature does not care about our decimal system.

If you want to brood in warm, fuzzy thoughts of catastrophe that seem to make you happy, perhaps think about what happens to Miami in about 20-30 years. But don't spin stories about this years' El Nino caused +1 ppm of CO2 have a notable effect, or that there is any wisdom in some scribbler phantasizing about a boiling arctic.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Andre on November 17, 2016, 01:03:43 AM
Robert Scribbler is not onto something, at most he might be on something (and I wouldn't want to try it). Does he pay you for spreading his vain fearmongering?
[...]

I think you read way too much into my comment. I am in no way trying to push any ideas of imminent catastrophe. Rather, I am simply amazed by the unprecedented nature of the temps above 80N at the moment. I look at "the end of winter as we know it" as a good metaphor for simply describing the fact that the current temps are quite incredible and do not represent what we are used to seeing at this time of year.

I think we can both agree that no other year appears to have had fall temps anywhere close to what we are seeing.

I have been following the DMI graphs for some time and simply wanted to share the latest update, as I believe it is an important piece of the puzzle and a good chart to keep track of.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: plinius on November 17, 2016, 01:31:17 AM
I fully agree that the temperatures in the arctic basin are extraordinary, though this is not entirely surprising. Because the ice edge is so close to the pole, you just need a bit of wind from the open water. It's by the way one of the reasons, why I never really accepted people pointing to freezing-degree-days being in the safe region there. Once the ocean is open, it takes a while to freeze back over. However, if we look at the ice now, we will probably start with a minor deficit into the next season, but not even that is sure yet. In three months of freezing, you build still enough ice. This is just a little preview on what will happen in the future, but it's not justified to say that next year the ice will melt out.

Robert Scribbler is something different - there is not much difference between him and an Anthony Watts. One is a fake sceptic who profits from lying about there being no global warming issues, and the other tries to profit from fearmongering. Both unscientific, both dishonest and wrong about physics, and both extremely damaging to a constructive debate and seeking a solution.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on November 17, 2016, 01:41:35 AM
Quote
This is just a little preview on what will happen in the future, but it's not justified to say that next year the ice will melt out.

That is very fair to say and exactly my hope. Chances are that red line will go down at some point. The problem I have is those chances are based on historical data. If the dynamics of the arctic changed from the historical data, they may no longer be valid.

What makes you so confident that the unprecedented changes in Temperature/QBO/Wind Currents have not affected the reliability of historical data?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Andre on November 17, 2016, 01:50:04 AM
What makes you so confident that the unprecedented changes in Temperature/QBO/Wind Currents have not affected the reliability of historical data?


I think thats a good point.

We always compare every new development to historical baselines. that assumes that these baselines will always be applicable and useful for future forecasts. If ever that no longer holds true, it would take years to attempt and try to establish a new baseline.

For now, all we can do is observe and see whether what we are seeing now is just a short-term blip or an indication of larger changes to come.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: NeilT on November 17, 2016, 02:09:59 AM
And @NeilT - it's rather inconsequential if the CO2 level is 401 or 400 this year. At a sensitivity of <2K (no, you can't even use ECS) this makes for an astonishing 0.005K or so. And no, there is no physical process shaping a 10-year pattern in ice loss, that's just your phantasy. Nature does not care about our decimal system.

Really?

Try going away and remembering the key 10 year cycle which is driven by the biggest contributor to heat retention on this planet.

Just remember that I predicted, in rough, not in fine, what is going on right now before the ice stopped melting.  But why bother remembering that.

If I want a debate like this I can always go to WUWT.  However you have done me a favour.  I need more time in my life and I'm out of this discussion for this year.

Enjoy the show!
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 17, 2016, 02:45:20 AM

... is it possible that ice forms and/or survives even at near-freezing temperatures because it loses more heat radiatively (to space) than it gains conductively (from air)?


That'd violate the 2nd law of thermodynamics, I'm afraid, as well as be a steep climb because of the 80-fold per unit increased volume of heat that would have to be lost to facilitate the phase change.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: JayW on November 17, 2016, 03:14:13 AM
~40 hour loop of AVHRR courtesy of the Canadian meteorological service.

Nov 15/9z -17/0z
http://weather.gc.ca/satellite/satellite_anim_e.html?sat=hrpt&area=dfo&type=ir (http://weather.gc.ca/satellite/satellite_anim_e.html?sat=hrpt&area=dfo&type=ir)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 17, 2016, 03:18:22 AM
Quote
Sea-ice melt was widespread over the Svalbard continental slope and ocean-to-ice heat fluxes reached values of 400 Wm-2 (mean of ~150 Wm-2 over the continental slope). Sea-ice melt events were associated with near 12-hour fluctuations in the mixed-layer temperature and salinity corresponding to the periodicity of tides and near-inertial waves potentially generated by winter storms, large barotropic tides over steep topography and/or geostrophic adjustments.
Does strongly implicate the smoking gun behind the now year-round melting along the Atlantic front.

The implications regarding snow coverage and how it limits heat flow out of the ice are similarly quite bad.

I think we are accelerating sharply towards much greater extremes in fluctuation in annual ice coverage.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 17, 2016, 03:59:34 AM
Zoomed in and made this of the European facing side of the ice front. Nov. 1st-14th

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Rob Dekker on November 17, 2016, 06:23:08 AM
Well it's official now.  CO2 average monthly (Global), for 2016 bottomed out at 400.44 and is on the rise again.  That is the last time anyone on this site, or their children or their grandchildren, will see 3xxppm again.

Thanks Neil. That is a humbling thought, and another indication that we are far from getting on any form of "sustainable environment" path on our planet.

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 17, 2016, 06:42:10 AM
Zoomed in and made this of the European facing side of the ice front. Nov. 1st-14th

Astonishing.  It isn't just getting pushed back; parts of it appear to be actually melting back.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 17, 2016, 06:52:25 AM
Zoomed in and made this of the European facing side of the ice front. Nov. 1st-14th

Astonishing.  It isn't just getting pushed back; parts of it appear to be actually melting back.

That's what I thought, but wasn't sure. I guess I wanted to see if anyone else thought it appeared that way.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 17, 2016, 07:11:09 AM
Zoomed in and made this of the European facing side of the ice front. Nov. 1st-14th

Astonishing.  It isn't just getting pushed back; parts of it appear to be actually melting back.

How widespread this chinese hoax really is? We should really build our satellites only of american parts and severe the ties to european and japanese space agencies in order to get some real data. It appears they've infiltrated the military too.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on November 17, 2016, 07:27:08 AM
it's rather inconsequential if the CO2 level is 401 or 400 this year. At a sensitivity of <2K (no, you can't even use ECS) this makes for an astonishing 0.005K or so.

it is not, however, inconsequential that China (and presumably Korea and Vietnam) coal consumption is down by 10% in the first 6 months of 2016 and that regional attempts to reduce smog pollution have greatly reduced SO2 emissions.  Nor is it inconsequential that the most recent El Nino event has significantly increased atmospheric water vapor content, leading to super-charged storms and stronger polar jet blocking patterns, leading to large increases in water vapor (and latent heat) intrusion into the polar cell.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 17, 2016, 07:34:10 AM

I'll be interested to see just how much we climb in 2017.  Was it just the Nino?  Is the Ocean finally beginning to reject new CO2 absorption?  Will the levelling of emissions from humans actually stop the annual rises or will they continue anyway with the same forcing?  I'm pretty sure the average annual rise is going to be circa 3ppm for 2016.  For 2015 it was 2.96 and 2016 was higher, driven by the El Nino.


CO2 is interesting as the hammer that hit the bullet...but the bullet is still H2O.

I agree. What has changed is the amount of atmospheric moisture in the Arctic, previously cold, low moisture and relatively cloud free. This winter moisture is preventing heat from radiating out into space., a new climate regime.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 17, 2016, 07:58:30 AM
That being the case, a monster has been created and turned loose. If some genius wakes up tomorrow morning and says to himself, "Eureka, I know how to get rid of the CO2," that's all good, but the extra moisture has already been put into play and is still there.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: epiphyte on November 17, 2016, 08:27:03 AM
SIE is an anachronistic metric and should be avoided as much as possible [...]
The appropriate metric to watch is sea ice VOLUME as produced by PIOMAS

The two are not comparable: one is data, one is a model.  You need both.  The only data we have on volume is Cryosat, which is still quite experimental and nowhere near as high resolution or as detailed as SIE/SIA measurements.

Yes indeed. I for one don't take much comfort from that, since the model was validated under conditions so different from today that I wouldn't be surprised if the only two things we know still to be true about it are that a) when it is predicting the wrong thickness, it is reconciled with reality only when the thickness is observed to go from +ve to zero, and b) when this occurs, the immediately previous estimate is more often than not over by at least 0.5-1m.

...which would seem to indicate that the PIOMAS, however abysmal, is more likely to be overestimating the actual volume than erring on the low side.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: plinius on November 17, 2016, 11:22:19 AM
Really?

Try going away and remembering the key 10 year cycle which is driven by the biggest contributor to heat retention on this planet.

Just remember that I predicted, in rough, not in fine, what is going on right now before the ice stopped melting.  But why bother remembering that.

If I want a debate like this I can always go to WUWT.  However you have done me a favour.  I need more time in my life and I'm out of this discussion for this year.

Enjoy the show!

I am eagerly listening. What are the mechanics of a 10-year cycle of arctic sea ice in your opinion? So far I have just heard empty words, nothing with substance.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on November 17, 2016, 12:04:44 PM
Plinious.

 Please read back your posts to yourself before hitting reply as this one  ( above) does not come across as very nice?

I don't know about the 06' /96'/86' cycle but NSIDC worked out ,after 07's drops, that there was a 10 to 20 year 'perfect melt storm synoptic' cycle and that the two previous to 07' respected the 10 year spacing so the year prior to the storm may also have been drawn into that pattern ?

After a number of years worrying about 2017 being the first opportunity, within the recognised cycle, that the 07' synoptics could trawl back through the Basin I now understand that the basin is  so altered ( just look at what we are/have been seeing across the basin recently) that such 'old Arctic' behaviours probably no longer apply?

NeilT might reflect upon that when he looks at his ten year spacing event but he should not be castigated for holding up what he sees as being of import?

With Neven taking a well earned rest it would be nice if he could return to a site that is still full of personal respect and kindness toward others?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: plinius on November 17, 2016, 12:17:31 PM
While respecting persons, I do not respect misinformation, pseudoscientific statements, and fearmongering as denialism. Respect also does not imply being "nice".

So, let's start with you, Gray-Wolf. You state that NSIDC found out a 10-20 year cycle (which I can't, neither in physics, nor in the statistics). Please back up your rather weird claim with a quote, so that other people can find this and read up. Or are you just like NeilT talking without facts?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on November 17, 2016, 12:32:25 PM
Hi Plinius!

I opened a thread on this site ( in this section) for the return of the perfect melt storm and others kindly came along with the statements???

Where did you look?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: A-Team on November 17, 2016, 01:37:46 PM
Here is a 01-16 Nov update to the Atlantic-facing ice front encompassing the huge cyclone of 13 Nov 16 and many days of strong poleward wind carrying warm moist air from the south. Massive melt, just like before.

Next up: the St Anna Trough incursion will be gone with another couple of days of this wind, water, and air temperature. That's only a beginning of the long-term effects of this storm.

Open water in the high resolution AMSR2 animations is recolored mauve, 100% concentration sea ice green. The palette on the UHH product allows any combination of concentration ranges to be brought out.

It's a clever one because it uses equal perceptual luminosities (0.21 red + 0.72  green + 0.07 blue) and consequently drops down to equal grays upon applying 'desaturase' in gimp. Is one of the many AMRS2 products more accurate? -- they all look about the same on ice edge and all are affected by passing atmospheric artifacts.

People here seem to have zero interest in what the scientific community does. Actually quite a few very recent articles speak to winter conditions earlier in this cycle and their significance to melt season and Arctic amplification.

It's probably better to digest these first, especially the data-driven ones, before wandering off into the speculative arena?

I located the L Boisvert paper tied to the Nasa visualization of the gigantic storm of 27 Dec 15, which had very similar effects to what we are seeing below. Her work with the AIRS instrument on Aqua is providing a lot of good data on evaporation, water, clouds, radiative feedback and so forth, highly recommended.

Possibly we can replicate those methods and analyze the Nov 13th storm ourselves. The AIRS data is not one of the Aqua channels provided at WorldView, so as a backup I wrote to see if she had a left-over script that could be run on the current storm.

The Impact of the Extreme Winter 2015/16 Arctic Cyclone on the Barents–Kara Seas
Linette N. Boisvert and Alek A. Petty  Julienne C. Stroeve
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0234.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0234.1)
 
Atmospheric data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) were used to study an extreme warm and humid air mass transported over the Barents–Kara Seas region by an Arctic cyclone at the end of December 2015. Temperature and humidity in the region was ~10°C (>3σ above the 2003–14 mean) warmer and ~1.4 g kg−1 (>4σ above the 2003–14 mean) wetter than normal during the peak of this event.

This anomalous air mass resulted in a large and positive flux of energy into the surface via the residual of the surface energy balance (SEB), compared to the weakly negative SEB from the surface to the atmosphere expected for that time of year.

The magnitude of the downwelling longwave radiation during the event was unprecedented compared to all other events detected by AIRS in December/January since 2003. An approximate budget scaling suggests that this anomalous SEB could have resulted in up to 10 cm of ice melt.

Thinning of the ice pack in the region was supported by remotely sensed and modeled estimates of ice thickness change. Understanding the impact of this anomalous air mass on a thinner, weakened sea ice state is imperative for understanding future sea ice–atmosphere interactions in a warming Arctic.

http://science.gsfc.nasa.gov/sed/bio/linette.n.boisvert (http://science.gsfc.nasa.gov/sed/bio/linette.n.boisvert)

Boisvert, L. N., J. N. Lee, B. Noel, M. R. van den Broeke, and A. W. Nolin. 2016. "Using remotely sensed data from AIRS to estimate the vapor flux on the Greenland Ice Sheet: comparisons with observations and a regional climate model." Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, (Conditionally Accepted)

Boisvert, L. N., A. A. Petty, and J. C. Stroeve. 2016. "The Impact of the Extreme Winter 2015/16 Arctic Cyclone on the Barents–Kara Seas." Monthly Weather Review, [http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0234.1]

Cullather, R. I., Y.-K. Lim, L. N. Boisvert, et al. 2016. "Analysis of the warmest Arctic winter, 2015-2016." Geophysical Research Letters, (In Press) [10.1002/2016GL071228]

Serreze, M., J. C. Stroeve, A. P. Barrett, and L. N. Boisvert. 2016. "Summer Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies over the Arctic Ocean and Their Influences on September Sea Ice Extent: A Cautionary Tale." Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, [10.1002/2016JD025161]

Boisvert, L. N., D. L. Wu, T. Vihma, and J. Susskind. 2015. "Verification of air/surface humidity differences from AIRS and ERA-Interim in support of turbulent flux estimation in the Arctic." J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120 (3): 945–963 [10.1002/2014JD021666]

Boisvert, L. N., and J. C. Stroeve. 2015. "The Arctic is becoming warmer and wetter as revealed by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder." Geophys. Res. Lett., 42 (11): 4439-4446 [10.1002/2015GL063775]
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on November 17, 2016, 01:45:38 PM

While respecting persons, I do not respect misinformation, pseudoscientific statements, and fearmongering as denialism. Respect also does not imply being "nice".

Do you have anything to add to the thread other than "Stop talking about it because it is scary"?

I'm waiting for your scientific explanation of why there is no reason to believe that these changes do not represent a phase change for the arctic.

We all "know" that red line is eventually going to come down, but what if it doesn't?  Is this not an appropriate place to talk about that? Is this not an appropriate place to show our ignorance  and be corrected for the benefit of all?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on November 17, 2016, 01:47:36 PM
I must say I agree with Plinius' basic point that the year numbering system has no correlation to the weather, but I see no reason to be harsh and disrespectful while posting.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on November 17, 2016, 02:12:22 PM
As I understand it we had been in a period of forcings , for over 20 years, that effectively buried warmed Pacific tropical waters into the column below ( exposing further upwelled waters to warm. This cycle flipped in 2014 and global temps haven't looked back since!

Could this switch to 'warmed surface' mean the atmosphere is now constantly recharging its heat cargo and send it North? If so why must the Red Line fall by much over the coming months? If WAA after WAA keeps on arriving at the Pacific/Atlantic ends of the Basin why should we not see elevated temps maintain across the whole winter ( genuine question by the way!)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on November 17, 2016, 02:25:08 PM
As I understand it we had been in a period of forcings , for over 20 years, that effectively buried warmed Pacific tropical waters into the column below ( exposing further upwelled waters to warm. This cycle flipped in 2014 and global temps haven't looked back since!

Could this switch to 'warmed surface' mean the atmosphere is now constantly recharging its heat cargo and send it North? If so why must the Red Line fall by much over the coming months? If WAA after WAA keeps on arriving at the Pacific/Atlantic ends of the Basin why should we not see elevated temps maintain across the whole winter ( genuine question by the way!)
I believe a lot of the anomaly (but surely not all) is due to a refreeze delay of several weeks. Looking at the AMSR regional charts of the peripheral seas, the Beaufort CAA and ESS all finished filling up with ice only last week. In addition, the Chukchi should fill up in a month, and the Kara in two months. Even with more refreeze delays, I am guessing the DMI temps red line will drop to a smaller anomaly when that process comes to its full effect.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on November 17, 2016, 02:45:09 PM
Quote
In addition, the Chukchi should fill up in a month, and the Kara in two months.

I think the big difference is in the Kara. Look at the median of the attached NSIDC extent map. The Kara should be covered with ice and thickening as we speak. Although it is likely that the kara will eventually refreeze, it will probably be thinner than usual. That may lead to faster melt than usual, with a much earlier than usual Atlantic intrusion into the CAB.



Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: plinius on November 17, 2016, 02:58:57 PM
As I understand it we had been in a period of forcings , for over 20 years, that effectively buried warmed Pacific tropical waters into the column below ( exposing further upwelled waters to warm. This cycle flipped in 2014 and global temps haven't looked back since!

Could this switch to 'warmed surface' mean the atmosphere is now constantly recharging its heat cargo and send it North? If so why must the Red Line fall by much over the coming months? If WAA after WAA keeps on arriving at the Pacific/Atlantic ends of the Basin why should we not see elevated temps maintain across the whole winter ( genuine question by the way!)

So, in other words, you have nothing to back up your 10-year cycle claim?
And, by the way, the heat inflow through the Bering is far below what you need to cause the current anomalies, and in addition there is no evidence for any _cycle_ there.
WLA over the atlantic and pacific is not part of a 10-year cycle, but simply related to the WACCy situation, which is caused by the shift.

Concerning being harsh - yes, I definitely think that one should be harsh with such people. If you remember a tiny bit of discussion history, the last time we saw a longer-term cycle pop up, was those silly 30-year and 60-year climate cycles that were pushed by pseudosceptics. Why were they successful for so long? At least partly, because the other side hasn't learned to clearly separate fact and fiction.
It's nothing personal, but if someone talks bullshit, there is a duty to classify it as such.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: plinius on November 17, 2016, 03:30:17 PM
Do you have anything to add to the thread other than "Stop talking about it because it is scary"?

Never said that, so stop lying please.

I'm waiting for your scientific explanation of why there is no reason to believe that these changes do not represent a phase change for the arctic.
I never denied a drastic change, I explicitly stated that my zero hypothesis is that WACCy of this phenomenal strength is triggered by the open ocean. This also implies that the strength will probably shrink in ~1 month when more ocean is frozen over.
I also do not have to give a scientific explanation for some theory not being valid, just like we do not have to scientifically explain why the chimaera or Pegasus do not exist. It's enough to show that such claims lack their basis.

We all "know" that red line is eventually going to come down, but what if it doesn't?  Is this not an appropriate place to talk about that? Is this not an appropriate place to show our ignorance  and be corrected for the benefit of all?
Showing and discussing one's ignorance is not a bad thing. Speaking with conviction while being ignorant, is. Get the difference? Apart from that, there is no black magic in predicting that the red line in the dmi graph will come down. I am happy to offer you a 10:1 bet that dmi will show <255K some time before next March. We have models to assess the situation, so you have to show why (scientific) models are wrong.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on November 17, 2016, 03:30:35 PM

<snip>

This anomalous air mass resulted in a large and positive flux of energy into the surface via the residual of the surface energy balance (SEB), compared to the weakly negative SEB from the surface to the atmosphere expected for that time of year.

<snip>


I think it might come to pass that the anomalous air mass is not so anomalous. Interesting read A Team.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on November 17, 2016, 04:11:05 PM
Speaking with conviction while being ignorant, is.

you mean like asserting that this is caused by open ocean water in the arctic when previous years' open ocean values were higher (2012) or very similar (2007, 2010, 2011, 2015) and yet we had no similar activity?   ;D
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: epiphyte on November 17, 2016, 04:36:55 PM
Quote
People here seem to have zero interest in what the scientific community does. Actually quite a few very recent articles speak to winter conditions earlier in this cycle and their significance to melt season and Arctic amplification.

Plenty of interest, but unfortunately no access!

I'm really, really not trying to be facetious - but perhaps the AMS (at al.) might consider dropping their paywalls if they want people to pay attention to the scientific community. Maybe they could have an advertising-supported option for the outsiders?
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: S.Pansa on November 17, 2016, 05:05:12 PM

Plenty of interest, but unfortunately no access!


I find Google Scholar quite useful  to look for open-access versions of papers (as I only can afford the Science subscription). 

If this gentle methode doesn't work. The Sci-hub-hammer (http://sci-hub.bz/) breaks nearly every paywall with ease ;D (use at your one risk of course ;))
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Andre on November 17, 2016, 05:06:54 PM
According to the 48h ECMWF forecast, we can expect the current Atlantic situation to remain much the same for the coming days. Might see even more retreat along the ice edge there.

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on November 17, 2016, 05:24:58 PM
Quote
People here seem to have zero interest in what the scientific community does. Actually quite a few very recent articles speak to winter conditions earlier in this cycle and their significance to melt season and Arctic amplification.
Plenty of interest, but unfortunately no access!

True, however one can sometimes find free copies of articles just by googling the article title.  Also by googling the title you'll get a broader take on what others think and summarize from it.

Here is a 2 minute synopsis video related to the article that A-Team references: "The Impact of the Extreme Winter 2015/16 Arctic Cyclone on the Barents–Kara Seas"  see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhF9nLdZ7ZY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhF9nLdZ7ZY)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on November 17, 2016, 05:39:12 PM
Global water vapor anomalies (60'S to 60'N)  If arctic anomalies were included you can bet they would be much higher this year.

h/t Anthony Masiello
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/799284212494831616
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 17, 2016, 06:00:49 PM
Quote
People here seem to have zero interest in what the scientific community does. Actually quite a few very recent articles speak to winter conditions earlier in this cycle and their significance to melt season and Arctic amplification.
Sorry A-Team if I've seemed inattentive to the stream of articles you've posted; I have great interest in what the community is doing.  What I haven't had is sufficient time.

I will do what I can to sort through some of those journals and comment on them.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 17, 2016, 06:17:47 PM
Here is my own very modest contribution to the topic A-Team is addressing - the effect of storms on the pack.

We've seen from his animations that there is a visible pull back of the ice away from the Atlantic front.

I was looking at both Bremen and Worldview at ice concentration over the last few days, and was noticing what appeared to be unusual reductions in concentration fairly deep in the pack.  Unfortunately without daylight, we've limited tools to actually "put eyeballs" on what's happening.

However, I've put together this quick and dirty animation from world view (very simple) using the GCOM W-1/AMSR2 layer for 12KM ice concentration.  It is admittedly a very blunt instrument, but  I think the animation is demonstrating at a qualitative level what effects the storm may be having on the interior of the pack - in particular, in some of the region where the remaining thickest MYI is located.

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: JR-ice on November 17, 2016, 06:34:03 PM
Hi, A-Team.

I definitely appreciate the work that you have done to select and list these articles.  In my case, I'm not anti-reading science articles, since I work in a science library!  I just have lots of life stuff going on.  So, I don't usually comment and just read what others are posting.  If I can I'll read a bit more background.

In any event, please don't be discouraged  :)  There are plenty of laypeople out here who care about arctic ice, want to learn more, and benefit from your contributions and those of others on the forum.

-Jess
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: plinius on November 17, 2016, 06:34:42 PM
Speaking with conviction while being ignorant, is.

you mean like asserting that this is caused by open ocean water in the arctic when previous years' open ocean values were higher (2012) or very similar (2007, 2010, 2011, 2015) and yet we had no similar activity?   ;D

Is it possible that you would want to consider fact checking yourself, before you attack others?

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009JD013568/full (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009JD013568/full)

http://www.polarresearch.net/index.php/polar/article/view/15787 (http://www.polarresearch.net/index.php/polar/article/view/15787)

Read this. In contrast to you I tend to look up my claims before I write.
And by the way - had you looked at arctic water temperatures instead of just mere ice coverage, you would also not have written your comment.

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: mdoliner on November 17, 2016, 07:45:30 PM
Blow the slushy out the Fram
Boil the water, steam the clam.
Drought, whirlwind, name your brew,
Species dying, so will you.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on November 17, 2016, 09:39:55 PM
Right now, the Arctic Ocean is experiencing a very strong cyclonic event bring warm wet air up from mid-latitude. Nasa just put up a very nice animation of a similar event in late Dec 2015 which seems to have fallen below the forum radar screens back then, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A561WmydceE (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A561WmydceE)

Actually I made a (not quite so nice!) animation way back then:

http://youtu.be/X2gKvHiab94 (http://youtu.be/X2gKvHiab94)

From the linked article:

Quote
Personally I reckon the 25 m/s winds and resulting 10 meter waves had more effect on the sea ice metrics than the 25 °C above normal air temperatures, but your mileage may of course vary,
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on November 17, 2016, 09:55:08 PM
Speaking with conviction while being ignorant, is.

you mean like asserting that this is caused by open ocean water in the arctic when previous years' open ocean values were higher (2012) or very similar (2007, 2010, 2011, 2015) and yet we had no similar activity?   ;D

Is it possible that you would want to consider fact checking yourself, before you attack others?

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009JD013568/full (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009JD013568/full)

http://www.polarresearch.net/index.php/polar/article/view/15787 (http://www.polarresearch.net/index.php/polar/article/view/15787)

Read this. In contrast to you I tend to look up my claims before I write.
And by the way - had you looked at arctic water temperatures instead of just mere ice coverage, you would also not have written your comment.

Yes, correlation of colder eurasia and an intense negative 2009/2010 AO did occur. However, the difference in THIS year as composed to all of those is by several orders of magnitude.  Your assertions are completely unfounded.

for example:   https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/ao/ (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/ao/)

The negative intensity of the Arctic Oscillation in 2012/2013 was significantly LESS than the 2009/2010 with significantly greater open ocean and enthalpy accumulation.   Your unfounded criticism of others doesn't pan out and your assertions really are not consistent with the documents you cite nor the historical record.  Correlations to Atmospheric Water Vapor and SO2 emissions reductions are much more significant (though I am sure that you are correct, to a degree, open oceans do have a contribution, just not a dominant one).
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: plinius on November 17, 2016, 10:12:50 PM
stop embarrassing yourself. Ever heard about weather as an additional component? Apart from that, where have I stated that AO or the open ocean is the only factor on play here?
Perhaps you might consider looking up the SSTs this fall. Might help.
But ok, never expected anything else than vain aggression here. Though I'd recommend you are less repetitive next time. Tells too much about your emotional flaming instead of invoking real thought.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Andre on November 17, 2016, 10:23:08 PM
stop embarrassing yourself. Ever heard about weather as an additional component? Apart from that, where have I stated that AO or the open ocean is the only factor on play here?
Perhaps you might consider looking up the SSTs this fall. Might help.
But ok, never expected anything else than vain aggression here. Though I'd recommend you are less repetitive next time. Tells too much about your emotional flaming instead of invoking real thought.

I am sorry but it really doesn't seem necessary to include personal attacks and aggressive language in the majority of your replies.

We can all learn from each other's viewpoints and I am sure you could attempt to be more constructive and less aggressive in your replies going forward without having to adjust your own viewpoints and still getting your point accross.

Cheers!
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Siffy on November 17, 2016, 10:23:26 PM
stop embarrassing yourself. Ever heard about weather as an additional component? Apart from that, where have I stated that AO or the open ocean is the only factor on play here?
Perhaps you might consider looking up the SSTs this fall. Might help.
But ok, never expected anything else than vain aggression here. Though I'd recommend you are less repetitive next time. Tells too much about your emotional flaming instead of invoking real thought.

With respect as a neutral party in this discussion the only person coming across as combative and aggressive here is you.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on November 17, 2016, 10:52:54 PM
Do you have anything to add to the thread other than "Stop talking about it because it is scary"?

Never said that, so stop lying please.

You are right, I was paraphrasing what you sound like to me but used quotes when I shouldn't have. My apologies. I still stand by the opinion that your objection to examine catastrophic scenarios does not stem from constructive scientific skepticism.

Quote
Apart from that, there is no black magic in predicting that the red line in the dmi graph will come down. I am happy to offer you a 10:1 bet that dmi will show <255K some time before next March. We have models to assess the situation, so you have to show why (scientific) models are wrong.


Do you have any models that predict the current levels of warming in the arctic? As far as I know this is unprecedented and unexpected by the consensus models. I think that the departure from previous variability of this event will change models to a degree that is yet to be determined.

Chances are that temperatures will hit <255k at some point between today and March, so I wouldn't take that bet even at 10:1.  However instantaneous temperature is not useful. I think that the right metric to measure this is Freezing Degree Days. The trend of the FDD for 2015-2016 freezing season was literally off the charts and the beginning of 2016 doesn't look any better.  If that trend continues, thickening will slowdown to a crawl and maybe even allow an early melt season, on weak thin ice.

 If we pretend that  this years extent was qualitatively the same as minimum extents of the 20th century, then it doesn't look so bad. But if you paid any attention at all to the last melting season, I just can't see why in the world would anyone not be worried.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: ritter on November 17, 2016, 11:41:58 PM
stop embarrassing yourself. Ever heard about weather as an additional component? Apart from that, where have I stated that AO or the open ocean is the only factor on play here?
Perhaps you might consider looking up the SSTs this fall. Might help.
But ok, never expected anything else than vain aggression here. Though I'd recommend you are less repetitive next time. Tells too much about your emotional flaming instead of invoking real thought.

With respect as a neutral party in this discussion the only person coming across as combative and aggressive here is you.

+1

@all others: very much appreciate the knowledge and insight you all bring. As a non scientist and very much concerned with climate change, this is one of the best sources I've found for open and honest discussion on the primary climate canary--arctic sea ice.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on November 17, 2016, 11:45:23 PM
good perspective of the warm temps and water vapor intrusion to the arctic at 850mb a few days back  https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/11/13/2100Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-120.84,90.75,816/loc=23.633,82.117 (https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/11/13/2100Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-120.84,90.75,816/loc=23.633,82.117)

We've been watching this increasing rate of latent heat and water vapor starting in 2013.  This generally produces cloudier and stormier (and therfore colder) arctic melt seasons and warmer (this year much much MUCH warmer) arctic refreeze/arctic winter night seasons.

some documentation of it here: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,784.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,784.0.html)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 17, 2016, 11:56:57 PM
stop embarrassing yourself. Ever heard about weather as an additional component? Apart from that, where have I stated that AO or the open ocean is the only factor on play here?
Perhaps you might consider looking up the SSTs this fall. Might help.
But ok, never expected anything else than vain aggression here. Though I'd recommend you are less repetitive next time. Tells too much about your emotional flaming instead of invoking real thought.

I am sorry but it really doesn't seem necessary to include personal attacks and aggressive language in the majority of your replies.

We can all learn from each other's viewpoints and I am sure you could attempt to be more constructive and less aggressive in your replies going forward without having to adjust your own viewpoints and still getting your point accross.

Cheers!

I asked a question(did not assert that I knew the answer) one time and plinius basically said there was no intelligence on this forum and I and my family would look like the people in the picture below. Neven let it be because he said he was frustrated at the time and it was the end of the discussion. I think now he is showing his true colors, though.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on November 18, 2016, 12:25:25 AM
The  first to attachments are the sea ice thickness of the kara sea region for 2015 and 2016, with part of the pole included. Please notice the  lack of ice on the Kara and the holes close to to the pole. The third image is a screenshot of nullschool for the same region using the sea surface temperature anomaly mask.

I think this is another vulnerability of the arctic.   The Kara freezing delay causes a thinner kara to melt earlier than ever, allowing Atlantic intrusion into the cab much earlier than usual.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: plinius on November 18, 2016, 12:40:45 AM
Well, I would not recommend the tinfoil, because a spark from your microwave might ignite the giant methane bubbles ("dragonbreath") that you were previously dreaming about.
I by the way did never say there was no intelligence on this forum. It is telling that more of my statements got distorted than I could count in a single posting, just because what I have to say does not agree with you.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Neven on November 18, 2016, 12:43:50 AM
Apologies to everyone for not being able to be present here (I'm very busy working and building, and I have an Arctic burn-out - like the Arctic itself, it seems - which prevents me from keeping up-to-date).

I have put Plinius under moderation for the time being.

Hope to be back soon and contribute to this fantastic thread!
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on November 18, 2016, 01:09:10 AM
I think this is another vulnerability of the arctic.   The Kara freezing delay causes a thinner kara to melt earlier than ever, allowing Atlantic intrusion into the cab much earlier than usual.
I agree BUT - please note the Kara extent chart for this year closely matches that of 2012, so it's not totally unprecedented. And considering that the 2013 melting season which came after did not live up to expectations, the thinner salty ice does not guarantee a spectacular summer, only raises probability.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: DrTskoul on November 18, 2016, 01:12:34 AM
I think this is another vulnerability of the arctic.   The Kara freezing delay causes a thinner kara to melt earlier than ever, allowing Atlantic intrusion into the cab much earlier than usual.
I agree BUT - please note the Kara extent chart for this year closely matches that of 2012, so it's not totally unprecedented. And considering that the 2013 melting season which came after did not live up to expectations, the thinner salty ice does not guarantee a spectacular summer, only raises probability.

If you throw the dice enough times...
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on November 18, 2016, 02:00:44 AM
It's very hard to tell because the color scale is different, but it seems like the sst's on 2012 were cooler than on 2016. Images from here: http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/ (http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/)

Also the jaxa thickness for 2012 attached.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on November 18, 2016, 02:06:13 AM
snip

i think we're all very interested and follow your various and detailed posts with high attention, it's just that there is not much to add to your post but "YES" or "THANKS" which once more makes me say that a "like"/"thanks" button system would often be very useful. it's not very good to read if many people post back "thanks" and "great" etc. but be assured that your contributions, at least from my side and i'm sure from most people are seen and appreciated as outstanding.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 18, 2016, 02:17:26 AM
I personally have no hard feelings toward plinius, but can't speak for Joaquin(actor in picture) or anyone else. Wish plinius all the best, but in remembering what he got angry at me about, I dug deeper. He didn't like that I asked about the 250 hpa jetsteams mixing at the equator. Some claimed that to be unprecedented, which I have since found others who say it is not. But I think something has changed, somewhere in the system.

There are two Polar jet streams and the two subtropical, with obviously one Polar and one subtropical per hemisphere. Hadley cells are connected to the circulation of the sub tropical jet streams and have been found to have expanded toward the poles of late. I don't understand if this is what's changed, but we all know warm air and moisture is getting to the Arctic more easily. jai mitchell has posted a couple good gif's of the Hadley cell circulation. I guess I'm just trying to connect all the dots. Will be researching more myself, but any help is welcome.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on November 18, 2016, 03:14:48 AM
Thought the following might be helpful considering comparisons to 2012.  It'll be interesting to see if 2016 Kara SIE continues to drop from 2012 in light of incoming weather, higher SSTs and SSHs.  Click to animate 2012-2016 SST and SSH gifs.

Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Tigertown on November 18, 2016, 05:13:52 AM
Wow! I just looked at the JAXA graph. Out of season; best phrase that comes to mind.

P.S. I was waiting on Espen to post, which he has now. So, here it is.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: seaicesailor on November 18, 2016, 07:17:25 AM
Ok: how do you amplify heat from lower latitudes without albedo mechanism, no sun?
No way.
Humidity and clouds, right, may prevent this finite amount of heat from leaving to space for a while just as nights are warmer globally due to greenhouse effect, but note that the primary cause is heat from Arctic ocean just as the primary melting cause is sun insolation, with the difference that albedo amplification has no finite bounds in comparison, in practical terms.
I see we are seeing an extraordinary event. Every Niña there is a huge post el Niño rise of humidity at planetary scale (later to subside but never coming back to previous levels).  Weather may be contributing partially to avoid venting, and storms entering from the Atlantic carrying this post el Niño humidity (and quite some heat too). But the primary cause of current temp peak is heat that was stored in the Arctic ocean during summer due to sun radiation, ocean fluxes, perhaps imbalance carried over from previous seasons. Now being released by open ocean. Cannot be otherwise. Look at the maps!!! With the current notable exception of heat carried directly from Atlantic right now, for one month and a half, the red blob of temp anomalies you could see in ccr was nicely bounded by the Arctic coasts with a super red color over the Pacific side.
Once the event subsides, temps will go down, although the constant raising of CO2, vapor, global temperature, that keeps slowly up due to humans, with natural fluctuations.
I think Plinius has reason as feeling exasperated as I do too and surely others every time the forum is seized by day-after-tomorrow style narrative.
And yes, keep 2013 in mind.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: oren on November 18, 2016, 08:43:42 AM
Acrhimid and Ice Shieldz thank you for the detailed Kara comparisons to 2012. Very interesting. I wanted to compare them but my computing resources (and time) are limited.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: jai mitchell on November 18, 2016, 10:39:34 AM
NASA just recently posted a good expose on a warm winter storm in the arctic and its impacts on atmospheric temperatures and sea ice melt. 

This was a precursor event to what we are currently seeing today.

video presentation of the paper at the website.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/extremely-warm-2015-16-winter-cyclone-weakened-arctic-sea-ice-pack (https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/extremely-warm-2015-16-winter-cyclone-weakened-arctic-sea-ice-pack)
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: wili on November 18, 2016, 01:41:42 PM
sis wrote: "...the primary cause of current temp peak is heat that was stored in the Arctic ocean during summer due to sun radiation..."

But isn't the problem with this line of explanation that this summer did not, in fact, see record low ice loss, so there was no record low albedo so there should not be record high levels of heat stored in the ocean from the sun this year, and so that level of heat should not have lead to record low levels of ice cover at this point in the year?

Further, wasn't this summer famously cloudy, so solar contributions to heating the ocean should not have been at record levels for that reason either?

But perhaps I'm missing something?

I do think your point about humidity is very important, and if you have more links on that, I would be very interested. Thanks.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on November 18, 2016, 02:02:38 PM
The first attachment are the lower troposphere monthly temperatures since 2013 for the North Polar region.

The second attachment are of an area that I believe corresponds well with the tropopause. The graph shows monthly temperatures since 2013 for the North Polar region.

While the lower troposphere is warming, the tropopause is cooling a little.  That may mean that heat is "going out to space"  with less efficiency. More heat being introduced to the arctic region, with less efficient cooling out into space means higher temperatures for longer, unless there is somewhere colder for the heat to go. Colder places are the sea ice and Siberia. Most of that heat will go into not making ice.



Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on November 18, 2016, 02:16:03 PM

But isn't the problem with this line of explanation that this summer did not, in fact, see record low ice loss, so there was no record low albedo so there should not be record high levels of heat stored in the ocean from the sun this year, and so that level of heat should not have lead to record low levels of ice cover at this point in the year?


But there was a record accumulation of heat. See Tealights graph on the subject, from his site: https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/warming-potential/graphs

This is exactly why extent is such a deceiving metric. While it was on second place, it opened sooner than ever maximizing exposure to the sun. Also you could navigate a small boat all the way to the north pole so the whole arctic was receiving insolations through cracks that disappear below the 15% concentration threshold of the extent measure.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Jim Williams on November 18, 2016, 02:19:39 PM
NASA just recently posted a good expose on a warm winter storm in the arctic and its impacts on atmospheric temperatures and sea ice melt. 

This was a precursor event to what we are currently seeing today.

video presentation of the paper at the website.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/extremely-warm-2015-16-winter-cyclone-weakened-arctic-sea-ice-pack (https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/extremely-warm-2015-16-winter-cyclone-weakened-arctic-sea-ice-pack)

Thanks Jai.  How many storms have we had so far this fall?   I suspect that after a very warm Winter we are going to once again have a fairly cool and cloudy Summer.  The Arctic Ocean is now really an ocean, and not a desert.
Title: Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
Post by: Csnavywx on November 18, 2016, 03:17:25 PM