Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Arctic sea ice => Topic started by: Paddy on January 02, 2017, 02:11:06 PM

Title: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Paddy on January 02, 2017, 02:11:06 PM
As suggested. Any objections to the format?
(Specified Jan to May because of the remote possibility of a December peak).
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: crandles on January 02, 2017, 03:03:18 PM
<12.5 and someone voted for it; ??? seems a bit weird. It is up to 12.1 for 31st Dec and risen .48 in last 5 days so seems highly likely to rise above 12.5 before voting closes.

Perhaps last few years maximums should be listed:
2016: 13.96
2015: 13.94
2014: 14.45
2013: 14.52
2012: 14.71
2011: 14.13
2010: 14.69
2009: 14.66
2008: 14.77
2007: 14.21
2006: 14.13
2005: 14.4

Should we also have polls for piomas volume maximum and antarctic extent minimum?
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Siffy on January 02, 2017, 03:46:36 PM
I've chosen 13-13.5. I expect the Arctic circle to remain well above average and for warm air injections to continue, we're past the solstice and sunlight is slowly returning, I'm not fully confident in the choice but I expect us to finish with a maximum below 2016s so it was this bin or the one above and I'm a pessimist by nature.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: budmantis on January 02, 2017, 04:07:12 PM
My choice is 13 to 13.5 assuming the freezing season continues it's current trajectory. I do expect the maximum to be just south of 13.5.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Archimid on January 02, 2017, 04:55:32 PM
I voted 13.5-14. If there was a 13.5-13.75 bucket I would have voted for that one. I reached that conclusion by checking out the SST on 2015-12-31 vs 2016-03-15 vs 2016-12-31. The water seems hotter and the hot air intrusions  are more frequent. The Atlantic side might reach a similar extent as 2015, but I have doubts about the Bering Sea.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Paddy on January 02, 2017, 04:58:01 PM
<12.5 and someone voted for it; ??? seems a bit weird. It is up to 12.1 for 31st Dec and risen .48 in last 5 days so seems highly likely to rise above 12.5 before voting closes.

Thank you for the figures! I agree that it's a bit much to expect a below 12.5 result, but some people always seem to like voting for the extremes.

Going with 13.5 to 14 myself. I agree with other posters that a record low seems likely, but it wouldn't seem too prudent to bet on a massive record.

EDIT: I've also made a poll for the Antarctic minimum on the relevant board (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1836.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1836.0.html)). I'm not going to make volume polls myself, bit anyone who wants to should feel free.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: icy voyeur on January 02, 2017, 05:55:58 PM
As suggested. Any objections to the format?
(Specified Jan to May because of the remote possibility of a December peak).

My only objection is that 13.5 to 14 is such an overwhelmingly likely result that the poll loses some value.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Paddy on January 02, 2017, 06:34:57 PM

My only objection is that 13.5 to 14 is such an overwhelmingly likely result that the poll loses some value.

Fair, I feel. The main question for me was whether we'd Remain in the record low territory of the past two years or normalise (ie go back to the 14 to 14.5 band). Splitting into 250k bands would have nicely divided "similar to previous record lows" to "clear new record".

Would people prefer that we stick to the poll as is, or that we switch to 250k bands and reset voting?
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: charles_oil on January 02, 2017, 06:44:00 PM
I'd be tempted to go for the 250k bands as you have for Antarctica.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Paddy on January 02, 2017, 07:14:26 PM
POLL RESET

Bars set to 250k width, please vote again.

Let's do this properly if we do it at all.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Neven on January 02, 2017, 09:06:09 PM
Thanks for an interesting poll, Paddy. I voted 14 to 14.25.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 02, 2017, 09:57:14 PM
As always, I will not vote as I haven't a clue.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: oren on January 02, 2017, 10:05:10 PM
Voted 13.75 to 14 like almost everyone else, I expect it to fall in the ballpark of the last two years, despite the low extent throughout the refreeze I doubt it will finish much below previous years, it could also finish above. Okhotsk could supply the extent that will probably be missing from the Barents area.
This will certainly be a year where ice extent at max, and even ice area, will not be very good indicators of the real ice situation. Volume, salinity, tensile strength, core temperature, floe size, all interesting and hard to quantify.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 02, 2017, 11:24:53 PM
2017 melt season is going to be riveting.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: magnamentis on January 02, 2017, 11:45:14 PM
As suggested. Any objections to the format?
(Specified Jan to May because of the remote possibility of a December peak).

i mentioned it a few times, ranges should be overlapping because whether we shall have 13.96 or 14.01 is no real difference but one has to choose still. with overlapping values, say 13.75-14.00, 13.9-14.10, 14-14.25 etc. it's possible to choose a range around the expected value instead of below and above. hope it's clear.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Juan C. García on January 03, 2017, 12:07:13 AM
I will wait, at least until Piomas gives the December volumes.  ;)
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: charles_oil on January 03, 2017, 12:39:18 AM
Thanks - can votes be changed prior to close?  If so how?
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: logicmanPatrick on January 03, 2017, 01:00:19 AM
Voted 13.5 to 13.75

It seems we now have 2 seasons in the Arctic - the summer melting season and the winter melting season.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Avalonian on January 03, 2017, 02:03:19 AM
13.75 to 14 for me. Although the rest of the freezing season is almost certainly going to be a bit of damp squib, I reckon the weakness of the pack will lead to more expansion in extent than we might expect. Displacing a lot of the cold southwards also allows some offsetting of the Bering and  North Atlantic carnage.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: pauldry600 on January 03, 2017, 12:29:17 PM
Im going for 13.75 to 14.

Or 13.91 to be precise
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Paddy on January 03, 2017, 12:48:10 PM
Thanks - can votes be changed prior to close?  If so how?

I thought I'd set it so that we could, but now can't see a button below the poll to do so. Sorry :S
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Pmt111500 on January 03, 2017, 01:35:17 PM
13.782456 for 09th of March to get all the digits represented.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: charles_oil on January 03, 2017, 02:12:21 PM
Thanks Paddy - never mind - I did an early vote without looking properly - so I will have to live with the results & keep fingers crossed (may sound familiar for other voters too...) !   

Though actually - anything is possible with the Arctic this year I think.  Previous low (2010/11) had a large part of Hudson Bay poised to freeze at this point - not sure what we have that will take us a couple of million higher with all the warm water lurking.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Downpuppy on January 03, 2017, 03:26:47 PM
I went to 14-14.25
The north Pacific should end the winter with more ice this year than the last 2
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Neven on January 03, 2017, 03:52:22 PM
Thanks - can votes be changed prior to close?  If so how?

I thought I'd set it so that we could, but now can't see a button below the poll to do so. Sorry :S

I changed it. You should be able to re-vote, charles_oil.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Paddy on January 03, 2017, 04:13:57 PM
Thank you Neven!

Is there any chance you or one of the admins could possibly make the same change to the Antarctic poll? http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1836.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1836.0.html)
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Neven on January 03, 2017, 09:35:54 PM
Thank you Neven!

Is there any chance you or one of the admins could possibly make the same change to the Antarctic poll? http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1836.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1836.0.html)

Done.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Feeltheburn on January 04, 2017, 07:21:11 AM
Thanks for an interesting poll, Paddy. I voted 14 to 14.25.

I must be more of an "alarmist" than Neven as I voted 13.75-14 km2. Until I voted I had no idea it got a plurality. Maybe I should have gone out on a limb.

No doubt those voting for <12.5 and >15 are voting with their heart, not their brain.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Feeltheburn on January 04, 2017, 07:26:01 AM
<12.5 and someone voted for it; ??? seems a bit weird.

No one likes to be weird. Vote disappeared! Wadhams?
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Paddy on January 04, 2017, 07:53:21 AM
<12.5 and someone voted for it; ??? seems a bit weird.

No one likes to be weird. Vote disappeared! Wadhams?

Whoever it was hasn't voted for it again since the bin-shrinking reset.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: DavidR on January 04, 2017, 02:05:52 PM
13.5 - 13.75 I expect warm temperatures in the North Pacific to keep extent down in Bering and Okhotsk. 2014 and 2015 went low without much of a lead up so with this years weak freezing season I think a big decline in the minimum is possible.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Darvince on January 05, 2017, 07:27:31 AM
I voted, surprisingly, for the 14.25 - 14.5 bin due to the large area of near-freezing temperatures in the Sea of Okhotsk, with most of it at or below 0C:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/global.c.gif (http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/global.c.gif)

Although the Bering Sea might more than compensate for it, considering how there is still open water in the Arctic on the Pacific side, thanks to the storm that blew through there recently.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: anotheramethyst on January 07, 2017, 01:02:48 AM
Thanks for an interesting poll, Paddy. I voted 14 to 14.25.

Normally my votes are one bin more pessimistic than the mode.  So imagine my surprise when I was one of the few optimists who don't expect a record.  But then when I saw Neven is one of the other people in my group, now I don't feel so bad.  We might even be right.  LOL!
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Steven on January 07, 2017, 12:55:03 PM
I voted for 14-14.25 million km2.  This is based on linear regression, using the JAXA extent for January 6th as a predictor of the annual maximum.  This gives an estimate of 14.1 +/- 0.5 million km2  for the 2017 JAXA extent maximum.  The calculation uses detrended data for the last 20 years.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Jim Pettit on January 07, 2017, 01:31:54 PM
I went with 13.75M - 14M, though it'll likely be really easy to slip above 14M come the first few weeks of March. (If 2017 were to follow the average behavior of the past ten years [2007-2016], IJIS extent would top out at 13.98M, and on 07 March.)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimage.prntscr.com%2Fimage%2F39ce07461e4348528ac30fe361636122.png&hash=e6cb1b992ecfdbe3416ffc3a9035a001) (https://sites.google.com/site/pettitclimategraphs/sea-ice-extent)
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Tor Bejnar on January 07, 2017, 05:13:37 PM
I continue to appreciate Jim Pettit's projection graphs (and other data presentations).  I appreciate that these are not "prediction" but merely "projection" based on past experience. 

The future may not "follow" the past, but it always actually does, and often times past experience is a fairly good indicator of future reality.  The graphs of global sea ice extent/area show these past several months are an example of an exception. This may lead to more exceptions (but also show how rare such exceptions are).  Time will tell.  I don't think many of us have the tools to do better than 'projections based on past experience'.

I note from Jim's graph that recent years tend to have more ice area gain between now and the peak than previous, lower extent, years.  This is 'obviously' (at least to me) due to there being more open water accessible to freezing that succumbs late in the season, whereas previously the ice/water boundary was generally further south and therefore controlled by an earlier solar gain environment.

Because of the current low number of accumulated freezing degree days (FDD) and other measures people have been reporting of the poor 'state of the ice', I would not be surprised if the 2017 melt season 'follows' the 2012 line.  But this is just a guess!
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: magnamentis on January 07, 2017, 07:09:44 PM
I continue to appreciate Jim Pettit's projection graphs (and other data presentations).  I appreciate that these are not "prediction" but merely "projection" based on past experience. 

The future may not "follow" the past, but it always actually does, and often times past experience is a fairly good indicator of future reality.  The graphs of global sea ice extent/area show these past several months are an example of an exception. This may lead to more exceptions (but also show how rare such exceptions are).  Time will tell.  I don't think many of us have the tools to do better than 'projections based on past experience'.

I note from Jim's graph that recent years tend to have more ice area gain between now and the peak than previous, lower extent, years.  This is 'obviously' (at least to me) due to there being more open water accessible to freezing that succumbs late in the season, whereas previously the ice/water boundary was generally further south and therefore controlled by an earlier solar gain environment.

Because of the current low number of accumulated freezing degree days (FDD) and other measures people have been reporting of the poor 'state of the ice', I would not be surprised if the 2017 melt season 'follows' the 2012 line.  But this is just a guess!

a very eductated guess though IMO :-)
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: jdallen on January 07, 2017, 11:14:09 PM
I continue to appreciate Jim Pettit's projection graphs (and other data presentations).  I appreciate that these are not "prediction" but merely "projection" based on past experience. 

The future may not "follow" the past, but it always actually does, and often times past experience is a fairly good indicator of future reality.  The graphs of global sea ice extent/area show these past several months are an example of an exception. This may lead to more exceptions (but also show how rare such exceptions are).  Time will tell.  I don't think many of us have the tools to do better than 'projections based on past experience'.

I note from Jim's graph that recent years tend to have more ice area gain between now and the peak than previous, lower extent, years.  This is 'obviously' (at least to me) due to there being more open water accessible to freezing that succumbs late in the season, whereas previously the ice/water boundary was generally further south and therefore controlled by an earlier solar gain environment.

Because of the current low number of accumulated freezing degree days (FDD) and other measures people have been reporting of the poor 'state of the ice', I would not be surprised if the 2017 melt season 'follows' the 2012 line.  But this is just a guess!

a very eductated guess though IMO :-)
+1

Let me add, a quick review of the last 6 previous years dropping out the outlier - 2012 - gives an average drop to minimum of about 9.7 million KM2.  If we top out at just under 14 million, that average places us in the 2007/2001/2015/2016 ball park.

As Tor points out, the key difference is ice quality - thickness and strength.  The key variable will be summer weather, and how much negative feedbacks which inhibit insolation such that it reduces heat applied to the ice.

2012 dropped 11.5 million KM2 with pretty optimal melt conditions and much, MUCH more robust ice than we have currently.  A repeat of 2012 heat would almost without question drop us under 2 million KM2.  Even without that, with continued import of heat and moisture from mid-latitudes, following 2012's curve isn't just possible, but probable; in short, we could expect to reach 2012 minimum levels with "average" melt season weather.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Sterks on January 09, 2017, 09:45:59 AM
I argued in another thread that Global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures have abated somewhat after two years of Niño or near-Niño. They are still running high but not as much as one year ago.
.https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,445.msg97788.html#msg97788
Therefore, we may expect a maximum ice extent that is low, but perhaps not as low as 2015 & 2016. A comeback to 14 - 14.25 million km2 perhaps. The maximum ASI follows AGW trends whereas the minimum is more sensitive to other factors.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Paddy on January 09, 2017, 11:05:36 AM
One small thing I would add is that, with the ENSO factoring in, we're no longer quite at peak global temperatures (https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/december-2016 (https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/december-2016)), although the el Nino this year looks like it should be pretty weak. So the rest of this winter may likely be a bit colder than the equivalent period in 2016. So I'm not sure how long 2017 will hold onto record low levels of sea ice extent, and even if it does stay at a record level into March, I don't expect it to be by a large margin.

EDIT: Also, more specifically to the Arctic, DMI 80N was extremely high in early 2016. It may not be quite so high this year. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php)
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Pavel on January 09, 2017, 06:45:11 PM
I've voted 13.5-13.75
I guess the extent in the Sea of Okhotsk will be a bit more than average, but well below average in the Bering Sea. The Okhotsk can't get the extent much more than average as the sun shines warm in march and the current weather forecast predict warm temperatures this week
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Ice Shieldz on January 09, 2017, 07:29:15 PM
@Sterks I saw that drop in global temps too. However, the main concern for SIE continues to be a wavy jet stream and related cyclone cannons.  With a wavy jet there is plenty of heat (along with wind+moisture) coming in from lower latitudes to keep SIE trending like it has.  Also the Arctic ocean and the Bering sea, on the surface and subsurface, do not appear to be cooling fast enough.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 09, 2017, 08:44:18 PM
I  voted 13.5 to 13.75 out of respect for Patrick's insights.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Juan C. García on January 10, 2017, 06:06:14 AM
IJIS is today 250k km2 below the previous record. At the same time, Piomas volume is 927 km3 below the previous 2012 record. So I have to vote low, thinking that another low record is possible. At the same time, I hope that it will not be too low.

So, 13.75 - 14
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: DavidR on January 10, 2017, 08:58:30 AM
I argued in another thread that Global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures have abated somewhat after two years of Niño or near-Niño. They are still running high but not as much as one year ago.
.https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,445.msg97788.html#msg97788
Therefore, we may expect a maximum ice extent that is low, but perhaps not as low as 2015 & 2016. A comeback to 14 - 14.25 million km2 perhaps. The maximum ASI follows AGW trends whereas the minimum is more sensitive to other factors.
Its not as simple as that because most of the extent increase will be in the Bering and Okhotz seas.

If you  look at that  area 150-210E, 55-65N,  both  SST and Air temperatures in December were hotter than the past few years, particularly compared to last year. The annual  figures were hottest on record. SST has a habit of having an effect on ice beyond the month in question and I expect extent growth in this area to  be more like 2014 when it  was low,  than 2015 when it was relatively high.  If that  were the case, and it  was not compensated for elsewhere, extent could easily drop  300-400K below last year.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: magnamentis on January 10, 2017, 06:35:43 PM
IJIS is today 250k km2 below the previous record. At the same time, Piomas volume is 927 km3 below the previous 2012 record. So I have to vote low, thinking that another low record is possible. At the same time, I hope that it will not be too low.

So, 13.75 - 14

considering that volume is the real thing when it comes to how much energy is needed to melt a certain amount of ice it will be (is already) very very low. extent does not serve much because 1m of ice and 16% of thin ice cover are providing the same value but with a totally different energy balance.

area is somewhat in the middle but only volume really counts while like so often, the best tools are the most difficult to get a hold off (calculate in this case)
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: seaicesailor on January 10, 2017, 07:38:11 PM
I argued in another thread that Global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures have abated somewhat after two years of Niño or near-Niño. They are still running high but not as much as one year ago.
.https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,445.msg97788.html#msg97788
Therefore, we may expect a maximum ice extent that is low, but perhaps not as low as 2015 & 2016. A comeback to 14 - 14.25 million km2 perhaps. The maximum ASI follows AGW trends whereas the minimum is more sensitive to other factors.
Its not as simple as that because most of the extent increase will be in the Bering and Okhotz seas.

If you  look at that  area 150-210E, 55-65N,  both  SST and Air temperatures in December were hotter than the past few years, particularly compared to last year. The annual  figures were hottest on record. SST has a habit of having an effect on ice beyond the month in question and I expect extent growth in this area to  be more like 2014 when it  was low,  than 2015 when it was relatively high.  If that  were the case, and it  was not compensated for elsewhere, extent could easily drop  300-400K below last year.
I agree with DavidR assessment about the SST, tend to think we will have another sub 14 million km2 maximum regardless of lower global temps (but still very warm Arctic ain't it?). By how much, no idea but I put my vote in the 13.75-14 M km2 bin.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: JMP on January 11, 2017, 09:50:02 AM
I'm thinking it's going to be close to 14 possibly a bit below, but went with 14 to 14.25 because iirc  extent has been on the larger-than-expected side more-often-than-not in the past.  I usually fool myself into thinking the numbers will reflect my concern over how bad the conditions truly appear, and so this time I'm aiming a bit higher. 

When it comes to how much ice is missing - if I'm interpreting what A-Team just posted correctly - no matter extent the ice is so thin that the number will be practically misleading because there's so little thick ice left.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Paddy on January 12, 2017, 01:02:13 PM
Just four days until the poll closes, in case anyone's thinking of revising their vote.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: magnamentis on January 13, 2017, 06:58:14 PM
sticking to just below 14M as it becomes more and more probable looking at the most recent drop of today

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: DavidR on January 13, 2017, 11:30:58 PM
<12.5 and someone voted for it; ??? seems a bit weird. It is up to 12.1 for 31st Dec and risen .48 in last 5 days so seems highly likely to rise above 12.5 before voting closes.
Or maybe not. Seems to  be a 50:50 bet now  ;)
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Jim Pettit on January 14, 2017, 12:24:17 AM
If the remainder of 2017 were to exactly follow the daily ups and downs of any year from 2003 through 2016, only a duplication of 2008's behavior would render a maximum greater than 14M, and even that just barely. The to-maximum mean average behavior over the past 13 years would see a mid-March peak of about 13.75M:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fiwantsomeproof.com%2Fextimg%2Fsie_projections_from_current_date.png&hash=631dd70911503be6e82f233c9d454f7c)
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: jdallen on January 14, 2017, 04:07:07 AM
If the remainder of 2017 were to exactly follow the daily ups and downs of any year from 2003 through 2016, only a duplication of 2008's behavior would render a maximum greater than 14M, and even that just barely. The to-maximum mean average behavior over the past 13 years would see a mid-March peak of about 13.75M:
The additional open water offers some small opportunity for extent increase beyond what typically would take place.

That said, that extent is primarily on the Atlantic side or the Bering sea, neither of which seem particularly inclined to give up very much ocean surface to ice.  The 14M high limit is probably safe, and we will probably see a new "Min-Max" this winter.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Paddy on January 14, 2017, 11:52:04 AM
Going for 13.75 to 14. I was tempted to go lower with the current plateau and coming storm, but there should still be a good month and more of refreeze after that storm has passed to return closer to normal levels.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Tor Bejnar on January 14, 2017, 12:55:05 PM
My guess is there will be more storms.  But I hold on to my 13.75-14 guess for maximum.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: epiphyte on January 14, 2017, 06:12:36 PM
I voted for 13.5-13.75, without much conviction though; one might say I'm lukewarm about it.

If it does in fact come in that low, then things are really bad. In the past I've considered extent to be pretty much irrelevant to the big picture at any time other than late summer - but having areas above the 80th with no cover at all at this time of year is pretty shocking.

My first car had a broken gas gauge, but the "low fuel" warning light still worked. This situation kind of reminds me of that.

[edit] - I just dropped one bin, to 13.25-13.5 . the interminable lows in the forecast are just spooky.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: mmghosh on January 15, 2017, 05:28:33 AM
My 13.25-13.5 is looking solid!  Maybe I'll be right for the first time in 4 years...
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: budmantis on January 15, 2017, 06:06:47 AM
My 13.25-13.5 is looking solid!  Maybe I'll be right for the first time in 4 years...

That's the bucket I chose. It would be nice to be right once in a while!
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: DavidR on January 15, 2017, 06:44:54 AM
My 13.25-13.5 is looking solid!  Maybe I'll be right for the first time in 4 years...
Solid is a bit optimistic. Based on the rise from today (12387965) to the max for 2003 to 2016, 2 years would give a result  below 13.5, 7 between 13.5 and 13.75 and the remaining 5 between 13.75 and the current record low maximum.  However based  on what  we are actually  seeing I  will give you about a 1/3rd chance of being right.

Even to  get to 13.0 by the end of the month requires a larger than average increase, and we need a record increase to get above the end of month record low.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: magnamentis on January 15, 2017, 12:38:22 PM
My 13.25-13.5 is looking solid!  Maybe I'll be right for the first time in 4 years...

That's the bucket I chose. It would be nice to be right once in a while!

you are two brave predictors LOL that would be quite extreme. while solid is a bit bold it's at least possible and even though i know exactly what i know with "it would be nice" we certainly agree that should that happen it would NOT be nice at all.

generally i think that if we won't see some kind of turn-around, backing away from that record after record pattern we got stuck for quite some time now, that we could be in for real disaster soon. with that i mean increased speed for SLR (Abrupt Sea Level Rise LOL) and other extreme weather events in increased numbers, be it overly wet and/or overly dry and stormy. with overly i mean events that will be higher on the scale that anyone expected till now.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: crandles on January 15, 2017, 12:58:58 PM
<12.5 and someone voted for it; ??? seems a bit weird. It is up to 12.1 for 31st Dec and risen .48 in last 5 days so seems highly likely to rise above 12.5 before voting closes.
Or maybe not. Seems to  be a 50:50 bet now  ;)

Or 0% now. Oops, and I thought I had put quite a bit of safety margin in that. Could stay below 12.5 for a while yet if this lasts til storm hits. Still think it will go well above 12.5 possibly with a late season max. But given this forecasting record, I wouldn't trust me.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: anotheramethyst on January 15, 2017, 11:32:34 PM

Or 0% now. Oops, and I thought I had put quite a bit of safety margin in that. Could stay below 12.5 for a while yet if this lasts til storm hits. Still think it will go well above 12.5 possibly with a late season max. But given this forecasting record, I wouldn't trust me.

if it makes you feel any better, i'm expecting a late season max precisely because it's so low.  but of course i could be wrong, as there are no reliable weather predictions 2 months in advance :)
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Paddy on January 16, 2017, 01:40:18 AM
Voting closes in 14 hours. Looks like the midpoint of the guests is around 13.75 at the moment (half the votes above, and half the votes below).
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Rick Aster on January 16, 2017, 02:52:38 AM
I decided I would predict the previous seasonal record low. It's reached the point where I get surprised whenever ice levels go very far above or below the previous record low for the day.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 16, 2017, 02:57:21 AM
As I have done for every poll over the last 4 years, I shall not vote as I haven't a clue. I will sit on the sidelines to wait for the other clueless here to join me.  8)
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Tor Bejnar on January 16, 2017, 02:25:03 PM
Oh, I'm with you, SH, being clueless and all, but I enjoy putting the old lira coin I found when I was 12 (the one worth closer to nothing than 2 cents) 'on the line' to see just how clueless I am. Someday that coin (if I can find it) will be worth something and people will say I am wise!
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: jplotinus on January 16, 2017, 03:24:00 PM
"Those who know, don't say; and those who say, don't know. Thus, 13.5-13.75.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: magnamentis on January 16, 2017, 05:45:30 PM
"Those who know, don't say; and those who say, don't know. Thus, 13.5-13.75.

you mean like a dog that barks doesn't bite? that's wrong sir, hope you never gonna find out LOL |JK]
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: gregcharles on January 17, 2017, 06:05:49 AM
<12.5 and someone voted for it; ??? seems a bit weird. It is up to 12.1 for 31st Dec and risen .48 in last 5 days so seems highly likely to rise above 12.5 before voting closes.

Voting is closed and extent is 12,496,927 km2 according to Espen's latest post. I was sure you'd be right, but the arctic -- it's full of surprises these days.  :-\
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: charles_oil on January 17, 2017, 10:44:19 AM
I voted early by error (reply#22) but ended up leaving the 12.75 - 13 ... so who knows ?
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: pauldry600 on January 18, 2017, 12:02:05 AM
Definitely wont finish that low. End of January recovery and growth in February will see us at 13,913,453  :P
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: charles_oil on January 18, 2017, 08:44:53 AM
Thanks - ducking stool ready if that is right!
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Jim Pettit on January 18, 2017, 02:29:53 PM
If daily extent changes for the remainder of this melt season were to follow the average of the past 10 years (2007-2016), SIE would reach a maximum of 13.69M km2 on 07 March, which would be a new low maximum record. (The actual average maximum over those ten years has been 14.4M.)

2016 IJIS SIE is still 1.338M km3 lower than the 2015 record low max. Four years in the past ten have gained enough additional extent after this date to rise above that record: 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014.

Yesterday's increase of 106k is only the third century-plus increase recorded in the second half of January since 2008. IOW, twas a rare thing...


Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: DoomInTheUK on January 18, 2017, 02:56:07 PM
Jim - Once these storms start making their mark it'll be a short lived thing too!
So much heat around the edges and it January. No wonder this freeze season thread is so active.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Paddy on January 18, 2017, 06:10:59 PM
Definitely wont finish that low. End of January recovery and growth in February will see us at 13,913,453  :P
.

My estimate is 13,765,432.1 :P
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Juan C. García on February 12, 2017, 06:25:53 AM
IJIS is today 250k km2 below the previous record. At the same time, Piomas volume is 927 km3 below the previous 2012 record. So I have to vote low, thinking that another low record is possible. At the same time, I hope that it will not be too low.

So, 13.75 - 14

During February, IJIS has stayed on the 13.31 and 13.37 million km2. That is, no a single increase on the first 11 days! IJIS could reach the 13.5 million km2 mark, because there is still one month in which there could be a freeze, but I starting to doubt that we will reach the 13.75-14 million km2 range. Under 13.75 will be a huge low maximum.  :(
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Unmex Chingon on February 12, 2017, 06:46:57 AM
I am with all here... ZERO maximum... That will show Trump....
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Paddy on February 13, 2017, 10:18:45 AM
During February, IJIS has stayed on the 13.31 and 13.37 million km2. That is, no a single increase on the first 11 days! IJIS could reach the 13.5 million km2 mark, because there is still one month in which there could be a freeze, but I starting to doubt that we will reach the 13.75-14 million km2 range. Under 13.75 will be a huge low maximum.  :(

2017 still isn't far below the previous lowest years for date, though. I think that 13.75-14 remains the most likely outcome, but it all depends on conditions over the rest of February and March.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Jim Pettit on February 13, 2017, 03:16:24 PM
There are so many variables that can affect extent maximums that it's tough to make anything like a precise call. But a couple of things to note for those who *are* rolling the dice:


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fiwantsomeproof.com%2Fextimg%2Fsie_projections_from_current_date.png&hash=631dd70911503be6e82f233c9d454f7c)
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Deeenngee on February 13, 2017, 10:43:21 PM
Given this thread's title, here's a graph I made that I also put up on the general IJIS thread yesterday. The legend is provocatively located - we'll see if 2017 can find its way around!
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: crandles on February 13, 2017, 10:47:29 PM
The legend is provocatively located - we'll see if 2017 can find its way around!

I'll bag the vote for yes going above.  ;)
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Deeenngee on February 13, 2017, 11:02:47 PM
I agree Crandles, pretty sure it will. Interesting times either way.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Paddy on February 14, 2017, 12:15:37 AM
Side observations on the graph:
- That grey area was significantly widened by 2016
- 2017 will have widened it significantly further this time next year (the first part at least, but quite likely at least some of the rest)
- Do peak temperature years (looking at 2015 and 2016) correlate with an earlier maximum? I'm sure there were plenty of local drivers as well, of course, but still.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Tor Bejnar on February 14, 2017, 12:34:25 AM
Gosh, I thought the graph maker knew where 2017's day 55-57 was going to be!  ::) :o
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Juan C. García on February 14, 2017, 03:14:56 AM
Given this thread's title, here's a graph I made that I also put up on the general IJIS thread yesterday. The legend is provocatively located - we'll see if 2017 can find its way around!

Great graph Deeenngee!
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: TerryM on February 14, 2017, 04:07:09 AM
Deeen


Wonderful graph!


The grey region says a lot.


Thanks
Terry
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Deeenngee on February 14, 2017, 10:00:18 AM
Thanks for the feedback. I'll do a weekly update on this one until we're definitely past the max. Then an equivalent for the minimum.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Feeltheburn on February 16, 2017, 05:30:38 AM
IJIS:

13,673,982 km2(February 15, 2017)uo 127,281 km2 from previous and 2nd lowest measured for the date.

Looks like by mid-March it will reach 14,000,000+ km2. I voted too low. Looks like Neven is right again!
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Neven on February 16, 2017, 10:37:20 AM
How do you mean, 'again'? I'm wrong on a continual basis.  ;)
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: magnamentis on February 16, 2017, 03:11:47 PM
IJIS:

13,673,982 km2(February 15, 2017)uo 127,281 km2 from previous and 2nd lowest measured for the date.

Looks like by mid-March it will reach 14,000,000+ km2. I voted too low. Looks like Neven is right again!

mid march?

if we reach 14m which seems at least well possible at the moment, we shall reach it within a week or so and not only by mid march, while IMO the next warmer weather will bring a huge drop and/or long plateau which if 14m has not beeen reached by then (during the current cold weather period) it could never be reached, because the next cold weather period will then fall into early/mid march which will be too late for many peripherals to seriously build significant ice across the board, especially when coming form an intermediate drop.

why i'm sure about the drop in warm weather is because the ice is thin/young at the edges and generally in bad condition.

let's see, just sharing my opinion, must by no means become true LOL

game on
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Paddy on February 16, 2017, 03:42:22 PM
Two consecutive days of century rises... Just out of curiosity, does anyone know how often that's happened before this late in the freezing season? I'd guess not very often, partly because what helped make it so possible was starting so low two days ago.

Meanwhile, I'm going to stay out of all the speculation as to whether/when we'll go above 14m, expect to say that I expect the daily rise in extent to slow down a bit.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Jim Pettit on February 16, 2017, 04:39:37 PM
Two consecutive days of century rises... Just out of curiosity, does anyone know how often that's happened before this late in the freezing season? I'd guess not very often, partly because what helped make it so possible was starting so low two days ago.

2014 saw back-to-back century rises on February 19 and 20. And 2012--year of the record low minimum--had a whopping one-day increase of greater than 186k km2 on March 01. So such rises, while not common, are not unprecedented.

FWIW, the 2015 IJIS extent maximum occurred on February 15...
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: CognitiveBias on February 16, 2017, 04:56:53 PM
Weather for the next several days at least favors minor expansion everywhere except perhaps Okhotsk. Let's hope the max comes late and lingers....
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Jim Williams on February 16, 2017, 06:13:38 PM
Weather for the next several days at least favors minor expansion everywhere except perhaps Okhotsk. Let's hope the max comes late and lingers....

Why care?  All this hope or dis-hope bothers me.  We see things happening and we report our impressions.  If you do anything else you are not reporting ground truth.

Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: CognitiveBias on February 16, 2017, 10:24:02 PM
Weather for the next several days at least favors minor expansion everywhere except perhaps Okhotsk. Let's hope the max comes late and lingers....

Why care?  All this hope or dis-hope bothers me.  We see things happening and we report our impressions.  If you do anything else you are not reporting ground truth.

Please disregard anything in my post(s) you find bothersome. 

Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Deeenngee on February 20, 2017, 10:30:40 AM
As mentioned a weekly update of my 2017 vs the rest maximum chart.
As we had a sharp uptick last week I've picked out 2005 for its impressive rollercoaster profile around the max. 
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Deeenngee on February 27, 2017, 12:10:16 AM
Another update here.
Will extent follow the typical path for the 2010s, upwards until mid-March.
Or is it a case of 'Averages? Pah!' ?
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Jim Pettit on February 27, 2017, 01:52:29 PM
2012--that record low minimum year--saw about 400k of extent added in the week-and-a-half between today's date and that year's maximum. But that was highly unusual; the average over the past ten years has been for extent to increase just another 100k or so, and max out on March 7.

FWIW, 2017 is currently 179k km2 below 2015's record low maximum. Neither 2016, 2015, 2013, 2008, or 2007 saw large enough extent increases from this date to go over that record this year. But even should 2017 not set a new record, I'm still more impressed (depressed?) by the fact that both January and February have seen the lowest average extent for their respective months on record, as did November and December of 2016. That makes four consecutive months with the lowest average, a feat which hasn't happened since summer of 2012.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on February 28, 2017, 03:22:26 AM
The glaring difference in the record of continuous monthly lows.

That was summer 2012.

This is winter.....I wonder what summer will bring. Also a lot of fracturing is occurring in the Arctic Ocean. The pack is moving a fair amount.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: oren on February 28, 2017, 06:09:45 AM
My updated prediction for this year's max: 13,839,032  ;D
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: jdallen on February 28, 2017, 06:32:26 AM
My updated prediction for this year's max: 13,839,032  ;D
Cheater  ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: jdallen on February 28, 2017, 06:51:27 AM
The glaring difference in the record of continuous monthly lows.

That was summer 2012.

This is winter.....I wonder what summer will bring. Also a lot of fracturing is occurring in the Arctic Ocean. The pack is moving a fair amount.
Hey A4R! Welcome back!

Fracturing doesn't begin to cover it.  If we get even an *average* melt season, we are just so much toast....
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Pmt111500 on February 28, 2017, 08:32:55 AM
My updated prediction for this year's max: 13,839,032  ;D
Cheater  ;D ;D ;D
Ha ha. Reminds me of 2012
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Paddy on March 06, 2017, 08:25:02 AM
Too bad, Oren.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: oren on March 06, 2017, 08:55:59 AM
Too bad, Oren.
Absoultely. Cheat and yet be wrong.  >:( :-X
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Deeenngee on March 06, 2017, 10:13:08 PM
As per before, but now going back to 1990. 14.0 looks to me like a coin flip, albeit based on eyeballing and absolutely nothing scientific, meteorological etc.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Paddy on March 08, 2017, 01:11:15 PM
When do we feel we should call time on the max? I'd be tempted to set March 21st as the date to announce the poll winner if we aren't then at or very close to the max for the year, as a post-equinox max seems unlikely.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: gerontocrat on March 08, 2017, 01:24:43 PM
When do we feel we should call time on the max? I'd be tempted to set March 21st as the date to announce the poll winner if we aren't then at or very close to the max for the year, as a post-equinox max seems unlikely.

Why not All Fools' Day (April 1). Predicting anything as to specific timing and quantity in a period of rapid transition and extreme volatility is .....
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Juan C. García on March 17, 2017, 05:52:03 AM
Seems that March 6th had the maximum:  13,878,287 km2.
Today (March 16th figure) we are  172,328 km2 below.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Paddy on March 17, 2017, 02:08:23 PM
Looks that way, yeah - as Jim Pettit pointed out on the IJIS thread, no previous year has seen a rise from this date on that would push us back over 13.88.

And even if we do get such a record rise, there's no way extent will climb over 14 million now. I declare the 13.75 to 14 category the winner.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Tor Bejnar on March 17, 2017, 03:39:55 PM
Conveniently, 13.878 is virtually half way between 13.75 and 14, so 'nobody' can claim their bin was almost right.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: magnamentis on March 17, 2017, 05:45:56 PM
Conveniently, 13.878 is virtually half way between 13.75 and 14, so 'nobody' can claim their bin was almost right.

haha.... true that but still someone recently and finally made a poll with overlapping values which is the real and long term solution, but yes at times i was tempted to make that claim while being 0.0xxx off only but then it's too obviously ego-based behaviour LOL
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: crandles on March 17, 2017, 09:46:16 PM
Conveniently, 13.878 is virtually half way between 13.75 and 14, so 'nobody' can claim their bin was almost right.

Dash, I wanted to claim the centre of the bin I chose 1.75-14 was almost right . Foiled again ;)
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: pauldry600 on March 17, 2017, 10:36:29 PM
I chose 13.91 so wasnt far off for a complete novice just picking a number out of increasingly hot air
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 18, 2017, 04:30:08 AM
I chose 13.91 so wasnt far off for a complete novice just picking a number out of increasingly hot air

I included the extreme values with the values 15.125 and 12.375 and got the ASIF average to be 13.699803Mkm2, so that's waay closer. The ASIF erred by 178484 km2 to the low side so as a group this is one of the most accuratest values we've been voting for over the years. But as usual, some individuals (this happens because of statistics, too) are almost on the spot, 31710 km2 (pauldry600) doesn't even fill the State of Maryland! As a group though, we lost an Uruguay-sized chunk of sea ice. Well that happens. So what, if Missouri-sized slab of 2 meter ice goes missing in predictive polling, that's only ~1.3% error. You could say forgetting the Alps is significant, but the Alps are just a one mountain chain in the world, do you remember all the others (and remember to count in Antarctic sea ice max) ?? This result would have been approved to experimental medical testing with humans (death as a side effect has though a higher limit). Not bad I say. (please check this yourself before spreading the message of high accuracy of the forum members.)

(Edit:Hoping I don't have to do that again as the cracking is quite significant up there...

By looking only the past ten year average of c.14.404M the error would have gone up to near 3,8%, in contrast pauldry600 hit within 0.23% of the current maximum number. I know in biological systems this is nearly unattainable accuracy so the conclusion is we're likely dealing with physics.  Stretching to verbal extrapolation, I could say, in this case, physics was at least 2.5% more accurate than history ::) :P ;)
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Tor Bejnar on March 18, 2017, 05:07:05 AM
Now that I'm a winner, I'll show my cards.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: pauldry600 on March 18, 2017, 10:42:51 PM
No mine was a fluke

At one stage I thought it was headed for 14m

The melt could be impossible to get a bin for.

Where to begin or end?
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 19, 2017, 03:35:34 AM
No mine was a fluke

At one stage I thought it was headed for 14m

The melt could be impossible to get a bin for.

Where to begin or end?
Fluke, beginner's luck, sensitive insticnt, lucky shot, call it what you will, but get three in a row as close people will take note... ;) I still remember when my second shot with a bow hit a 9 and the next 10 went right off the target :).

If you get many guesses on any poll someone is bound to be nearest and very close to correct. Or at least among nearest two. Add to that, most of the 127 voters did not announce their exact guess so saying some exact number in correct bin increases the chances to be nearest one.

In this sort of net poll, someone would have to do a list of the exact guesses and calculate the stats from those to get a more fair representation of the chances. Some people said specific descriptions of their guesses like 'low 14-14.25', but the calculation above doesn't note these at all. I just took the midpoints of each category and multiplied by number of votes to get the ASIF average.
Title: Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
Post by: magnamentis on March 19, 2017, 07:05:55 PM
No mine was a fluke

At one stage I thought it was headed for 14m

The melt could be impossible to get a bin for.

Where to begin or end?
Fluke, beginner's luck, sensitive insticnt, lucky shot, call it what you will, but get three in a row as close people will take note... ;) I still remember when my second shot with a bow hit a 9 and the next 10 went right off the target :).

If you get many guesses on any poll someone is bound to be nearest and very close to correct. Or at least among nearest two. Add to that, most of the 127 voters did not announce their exact guess so saying some exact number in correct bin increases the chances to be nearest one.

In this sort of net poll, someone would have to do a list of the exact guesses and calculate the stats from those to get a more fair representation of the chances. Some people said specific descriptions of their guesses like 'low 14-14.25', but the calculation above doesn't note these at all. I just took the midpoints of each category and multiplied by number of votes to get the ASIF average.

IMO who is best should not even be a topic seriously because based on the situation and all know factors we can make a guess in a range while even trying to show up with specific precise numbers is "a game" at best and useless for sure because it's like playing lottery, sooner or later someone wins while most others loose and then the motivation to make a precise guess is nothing else than speculating to hit home once in a while and looking good in the aftermath.

this kind of ego-driven play is one of the reasons why we (mankind) face(s) environmental as well as other unnecessary serious trouble. what we should learn (all of us) is to analyze the facts and the impact of our doing as good and as soon as possible and act accordingly.