Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Consequences => Topic started by: Lord M Vader on May 05, 2017, 11:19:24 PM

Title: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 05, 2017, 11:19:24 PM
As NOAA now give an invest in the Eastern Pacific a 40% chance to develop during the next 5 days, I think it's fair to start this thread as the "real" hurricane season is underway both in EPAC and NATL. TCs in Northern Indian Ocean as well in Western North Pacific will also be handled here.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nhc.noaa.gov%2Fxgtwo%2Ftwo_pac_5d0.png&hash=b9ce81bb064a3ddb6748bce001ef2312)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on May 06, 2017, 02:00:13 AM
For the Atlantic CSU expects a less active season, although as noted in the preamble it only takes one if you are in the path.  With all sorts of intensity records being surpassed in recent years due to the planetary heat engine, it would seem only a matter of time before another devastating cyclone strikes a major population center along the Gulf or East Coast of the US, and of course in the other basins across the globe.

https://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/04/2017-04.pdf

"We anticipate that the 2017 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly below- average activity. The current neutral ENSO is likely to transition to either weak or moderate El Niño conditions by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past month and the far North Atlantic is relatively cold, potentially indicative of a negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted


Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 25, 2017, 06:07:46 PM
NOAA:  Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year, in large part due to ‘Weak or non-existent’ El Nino.
Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
...
“The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Strong El Ninos and wind shear typically suppress development of Atlantic hurricanes, so the prediction for weak conditions points to more hurricane activity this year. Also, warmer sea surface temperatures tend to fuel hurricanes as they move across the ocean. However, the climate models are showing considerable uncertainty, which is reflected in the comparable probabilities for an above-normal and near-normal season.
...
http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/above-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-is-most-likely-year (http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/above-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-is-most-likely-year)

Of related interest:
NOAA’s newest geostationary satellite will be positioned as GOES-East this fall
Moves to 75 degrees west over the equator once operational in November
http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-s-newest-geostationary-satellite-will-be-positioned-as-goes-east-fall (http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-s-newest-geostationary-satellite-will-be-positioned-as-goes-east-fall)

However...
Reminder:  When GOES-16 moves from 89.5 to 75 in Nov/Dec it will not transmit data.  GOES-R Series satellites do not both move and transmit.
https://twitter.com/wxsatchat/status/867768219523624960 (https://twitter.com/wxsatchat/status/867768219523624960)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 02, 2017, 11:33:25 PM
U.S.:  Hurricane season starts with nobody in charge at FEMA or NOAA
The 2017 hurricane season started Thursday without anyone in charge at the two federal agencies most involved in dealing with hurricanes, National Public Radio notes.

Five months after Donald J. Trump was sworn in as president, no one has taken the reins at the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which is in charge of preparing for and then dealing with the aftermath of a hurricane. The last FEMA boss was a Florida man, W. Craig Fugate, who departed in January after seven years on the job. Fugate previously served as the head of the Florida Division of Emergency Management. Trump finally nominated someone at the end of April, but he has yet to be confirmed.

Trump meanwhile has made no move to appoint a new boss at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the agency in charge of the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service, which provide hurricane forecasts and hurricane warnings in advance of a storm.

Incidentally, NOAA Is predicting an above-average hurricane season this year. Trump's proposed budget has targeted both agencies for cuts.
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/hurricane-season-starts-with-nobody-in-charge-at-fema-or-noaa/2325887 (http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/hurricane-season-starts-with-nobody-in-charge-at-fema-or-noaa/2325887)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: budmantis on June 14, 2017, 08:10:34 AM
At this time of year, one would expect tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean Sea. Cape Verde season doesn't usually start until the latter half of July. The latest advisory from the Nat'l Hurricane Center shows the latest disturbance off the coast of Africa!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 17, 2017, 02:16:46 PM
Two shots at the first tropical storm of the "official" 2017 Atlantic hurricane season:
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 19, 2017, 11:30:05 AM
A Tropical Storm Warning (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/al02/al022017.fstadv.003.shtml?) is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Trinidad
* Tobago
* Grenada
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: crandles on June 19, 2017, 01:05:34 PM
Two shots at the first tropical storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season:

Arlene was pre-season April 20/21 but is it conventional to (unofficially?) extend the season back so that Arlene is the first tropical storm of the 2017 season?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/ARLENE.shtml? (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/ARLENE.shtml?)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/ (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Tropical_Storm_Arlene (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Tropical_Storm_Arlene)
is within
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 19, 2017, 01:24:31 PM
Arlene was pre-season April 20/21 but is it conventional to (unofficially?) extend the season back so that Arlene is the first tropical storm of the 2017 season?

I amended my post! There was much debate about whether Hurricane Alex should  be considered as part of the 2015 "hurricane season" or not. NHC naming goes by calendar year, so Arlene was undoubtedly the first official tropical storm of 2017 in the North Atlantic.

However, according to the NHC (http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/above-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-is-most-likely-year):

Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

These numbers include Tropical Storm Arlene, a rare pre-season storm that formed over the eastern Atlantic in April.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 19, 2017, 01:25:07 PM
New acronym from the weather world. PTC = Potential Tropical Cyclone
Is the software ready for it?

Brandon Bolinski:  PTC #2 in the books! What did we break? …
https://twitter.com/bhbolinski/status/876546167814987779

Edit
From June 18:
"Historical milestone today:  First ever 5 day advisory before a disturbance becomes a tropical depression or tropical storm."
https://mobile.twitter.com/chrislandsea/status/876618068457390081
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 19, 2017, 11:59:03 PM
Tropical Storm #Bret has formed east of Trinidad & Tobago. Only 3rd TS to form east of Lesser Antilles pre-July, and 2nd lowest latitude.
https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/876903622025465857
(Satellite gif at link.)

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 20, 2017, 12:01:24 AM
Some tremendous rainfall (up to 10 inches [254 mm]) being forecast by @NWS thru Thursday for coastal LA, MS, AL, and west FL panhandle from #PTC3
https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/876915082742996992
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: jai mitchell on June 20, 2017, 12:05:02 AM
The far side of Lake Champlain looks to get that ~250mm within a 24 hour period.
(repost)
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1951.msg117609.html#msg117609 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1951.msg117609.html#msg117609)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: budmantis on June 20, 2017, 12:54:34 AM
The far side of Lake Champlain looks to get that ~250mm within a 24 hour period.
(repost)
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1951.msg117609.html#msg117609 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1951.msg117609.html#msg117609)

Jai: Arent you referring to Lake Pontchartrain?

BudM
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 20, 2017, 06:24:55 PM
"On day 151 of Trump’s presidency and day 20 of hurricane season (and a storm headed for the Gulf Coast), we finally have a director of FEMA."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/877191058081198080
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 18, 2017, 08:18:28 PM
Yes, really.

“Because it’s 2017, we might have Tropical Storm Don and Tropical Storm Hilary at the same time.”

https://grist.org/briefly/because-its-2017-we-might-have-tropical-storm-don-and-tropical-storm-hilary-at-the-same-time/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: TerryM on July 19, 2017, 01:29:42 AM
Yes, really.

“Because it’s 2017, we might have Tropical Storm Don and Tropical Storm Hilary at the same time.”

https://grist.org/briefly/because-its-2017-we-might-have-tropical-storm-don-and-tropical-storm-hilary-at-the-same-time/ (https://grist.org/briefly/because-its-2017-we-might-have-tropical-storm-don-and-tropical-storm-hilary-at-the-same-time/)


Hurricane Vlad will put them both to shame.  8)


Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Forest Dweller on July 22, 2017, 06:19:06 PM
Hurricane Train fizzling out, Typhoon Express on the way?

An impressive sight to see.

I believe there have recently now been 7 hurricanes forming in the northeast Pacific, 4 visible here with the strongest closer to Hawaii.
But the relatively low SSTA appears to protect the islands so far as they weaken.

The same cannot be said for Japan/Phillipines etc on the other side where much of the water is above 30 C.
3 much larger rotations building and getting awful close.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Archimid on July 23, 2017, 01:52:49 PM
Nice animation.

the progression of dust w/ historical hurricane formations for each month of the season.

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/888862283660763136
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 23, 2017, 07:42:12 PM
More on the record Pacific storms. (Plus some Atlantic historic data.)

Eight Tropical Cyclones At Once in the North Pacific Ocean For First Time Since 1974
The north Pacific Ocean pulled off an impressive feat with eight tropical cyclones spinning at one time Saturday, July 22, something that hasn't been accomplished in more than four decades.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/eight-tropical-cyclones-pacific-july2017
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 27, 2017, 10:10:23 PM
U.S. Mid-Atlantic this weekend to experience strong tropical storm conditions from powerful, out-of-season Nor'easter type system.
4-9" rainfall
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/890647805974401024
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 31, 2017, 08:32:40 PM
"Supertyphoon #Noru is now a Category 5 w/ max winds of 160 mph - the 1st Cat. 5 hurricane/typhoon of the 2017 Northern Hemisphere TC season."
With radar loop:  https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/891770946411003904

"Hugely powerful Category 5 Super Typhoon #Noru has rapidly intensified over the last day or so. May impact southern Japan in about 7 days."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/892068470656909312

"Seriously, this is a beautiful storm.
For now, #Noru is safely out at sea. This 3-min resolution satellite loop will not disappoint."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/892069289909403649

"As it looks right now, Super Typhoon #Noru could rival some of the strongest landfalls ever recorded in Japan.
Please watch this one closely"
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/892076666381516805
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 31, 2017, 08:52:16 PM
WeatherUnderground's "Category 6 (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6)" reports: Tropical Storm Emily Making Landfall Near Tampa Bay
 (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/tropical-storm-emily-making-landfall-near-tampa-bay)
NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate that Tropical Storm Emily made landfall with peak sustained winds of 45 mph at 10:45 AM EDT (1445 UTC) Monday on Anna Maria Island, just west of Bradenton, Florida. Emily spun into life on Monday morning at 8 am EDT just off the Gulf Coast of Florida. Emily’s formation came just 48 hours after receiving no mention at all as a possible threat in the National Hurricane Center’s 8 am Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook. Emily erupted along the Gulf of Mexico portion of a cold front that had pushed over Florida during the weekend, and took full advantage of very warm water temperatures near 30°C (86°F). Development was not expected due to high wind shear of 20 – 30 knots, plus very dry air at mid-levels of the atmosphere, where the relative humidity was near 45%. Emily formed so quickly and unexpectedly that the Hurricane Hunters never flew into the storm. It is very unusual for a named storm to make landfall in the U.S. without the Hurricane Hunters ever sampling the storm.
[emphases added]
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 31, 2017, 11:16:32 PM
Florida declares state of emergency due to Tropical Storm Emily flooding.
On the Weather Channel, Governor Rick Scott says Floridians, and visitors, need to prepare for hurricanes. "This time was a little different. Typically we have a little bit of notice."
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Forest Dweller on August 01, 2017, 07:06:45 AM
Nullschool is projecting a severe blow for south Japan 6 days from now.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 01, 2017, 11:55:11 PM
South Florida:  Flooding in Miami and Miami Beach from TD Emily.  Bands of thunderstorms continue to train across the area.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Csnavywx on August 02, 2017, 12:29:55 AM
Noru is a very rare breed -- an annular hurricane. Only 2% of all hurricanes are annular during their lifetime. These hurricanes lack banding and are resistant to wind shear and can often maintain high intensity for long periods of time over otherwise marginal conditions.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 02, 2017, 03:58:05 AM
 :o  Massive flooding in Miami Beach.

"This video from Miami Beach is pretty scary"
https://twitter.com/officialjoelf/status/892526423294038016
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 02, 2017, 05:59:19 PM
At the link: 7-hour radar loop spanning the flooding event in Miami Beach and Miami on Tuesday afternoon. Over 7 inches (178mm) of rain fell in Miami Beach.
https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/892761235565015042
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 03, 2017, 10:43:15 AM
The 5 day Atlantic outlook:
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 03, 2017, 08:40:46 PM
Now there's another one:
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Grubbegrabben on August 04, 2017, 09:22:03 PM
First post here, hello all!

The typhoon Noru has been staggering around the E. Pacific like a drunken sailor for quite a while. Been watching Nullshool and the Japan Meteorogical Agency site to see where it ends up.

Looks like it will make/just made landfall in s. Japan. It will hardly move at all during the next 24 hours. I know my house wouln't last 5 minutes but I assume this area gets hit by typhoons once in a while so the infrastructure should be able to handle it. But still, 24+ hours is a long time with typhoon winds hammering down outside. And 10 metre waves...  and 60 mm rain/hour.

Source: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/ (http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: oren on August 04, 2017, 10:45:22 PM
First post here, hello all!
Hello and welcome. The first one is the hardest...
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 06, 2017, 02:28:55 PM
The probabilities have changed in the North Atlantic, and welcome GG!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 07, 2017, 01:54:20 PM
The latest Franklin forecast (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/al07/al072017.fstadv.003.shtml?):

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Punta Allen

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Belize City northward to the border of Mexico
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Campeche to Sabancuy
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 07, 2017, 06:20:18 PM
From NCAR website (http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/), the likelihood of Franklin becoming a hurricane appears to have increased.  The Cat 6 (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/tropical-storm-franklin-develops-nw-caribbean) folks think this is true as well.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ral.ucar.edu%2Fhurricanes%2Frealtime%2Fplots%2Fnorthatlantic%2F2017%2Fal072017%2Fintensity_late_stream15%2Faal07_2017080706_intensity_late_stream15.png&hash=8754b83d34c339d5965c5d18081367e1)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 08, 2017, 05:32:50 PM
Michael Ventrice:  12Z Calibrated ECMWF EPS up to 70% chance for development with regards to invest #99L, with a track towards the eastern U.S.
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/894685535775723521
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 10, 2017, 01:53:29 AM
Michael Lowry:  Strong words today from @NOAA as we enter the heart of #hurricane season. Regardless, it only takes one ☝️ http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/early-season-storms-one-indicator-of-active-atlantic-hurricane-season-ahead (http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/early-season-storms-one-indicator-of-active-atlantic-hurricane-season-ahead)

https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/895303525181394944 (https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/895303525181394944)

"Above-normal season likely with 14 to 19 named storms."
"The season has the potential to be extremely active, and could be the most active since 2010."
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Daniel B. on August 10, 2017, 02:22:51 PM
Michael Lowry:  Strong words today from @NOAA as we enter the heart of #hurricane season. Regardless, it only takes one ☝️ http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/early-season-storms-one-indicator-of-active-atlantic-hurricane-season-ahead (http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/early-season-storms-one-indicator-of-active-atlantic-hurricane-season-ahead)

https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/895303525181394944 (https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/895303525181394944)

"Above-normal season likely with 14 to 19 named storms."
"The season has the potential to be extremely active, and could be the most active since 2010."

That is a large change from May, when they forecast 11-17, although the hurricane totals remain largely unchanged.  That is only slightly more active than normal, as the average for the last 10 years has been 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors.  NOAA has improved their forecasting recently, although the last time they predicted an above-normal season (2013), it was a bust.  On the flip side, they did correctly forecast the active 2010 season; 14-23 named storms (19 recorded),  8-14 hurricanes (12), and 3-7 majors (5).  They are not forecasting quite that active of a season this year, although this year's start is similar to 2010:  2017; 2 June storms, 1 July, and 2 in August (so far), compared to 2010; 1 June storm, 1 July and 2 in August, with one hurricane each.  The 2010 season really started ramping up at the end of August.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 15, 2017, 03:22:19 AM
  ;) ;D

"Please proceed with caution when sharing long range deterministic model forecasts for undeveloped potential tropical systems."
https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/897148333046849536
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 15, 2017, 04:02:58 PM
Since nobody else seems to have mentioned it yet, Hurricane Gert is currently forecast to send some significant swells in my direction:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?cone#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?cone#contents)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 18, 2017, 12:47:15 AM
Tropical Storm Harvey is the 8th named storm of hurricane season, more than 5 weeks ahead of schedule. 8th storm typically doesn't form until Sep 24th.

Expected to be ~hurricane strength near Central America on Monday.

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/898289578771046400

Radar loop at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Daniel B. on August 18, 2017, 05:06:15 PM
Tropical Storm Harvey is the 8th named storm of hurricane season, more than 5 weeks ahead of schedule. 8th storm typically doesn't form until Sep 24th.

Expected to be ~hurricane strength near Central America on Monday.

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/898289578771046400

Radar loop at the link.

Not sure where the twitter got their information, but the average date, averaged over the past 30 years,  for the 8th tropical development has been Sept. 4.  Half the length claimed on the twitter post.  Perhaps there was some sort of quirk associated with those years that did not produce eight tropical storms.  Thus far, 2017 has had more tropical development than the average; 8 compared to 5.4, with only four years experiencing their eighth at an earlier date. 

But you are only looking at one particular measure of tropical activity.  The intensity of the storms has been near average.  2017 has spawned two hurricanes, but no major hurricanes.  The 30-year average to date has been 1.4 hurricanes, with one major hurricane every two years.  It is still early in season, and things could change dramatically in the next month.  There does appear to be favorability for the development of another storm in the next week.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 19, 2017, 08:31:23 PM
Tropical Storm Harvey is the 8th named storm of hurricane season, more than 5 weeks ahead of schedule. 8th storm typically doesn't form until Sep 24th.

Expected to be ~hurricane strength near Central America on Monday.

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/898289578771046400

Radar loop at the link.

Not sure where the twitter got their information, but the average date, averaged over the past 30 years,  for the 8th tropical development has been Sept. 4.  Half the length claimed on the twitter post.  Perhaps there was some sort of quirk associated with those years that did not produce eight tropical storms.  Thus far, 2017 has had more tropical development than the average; 8 compared to 5.4, with only four years experiencing their eighth at an earlier date. 

But you are only looking at one particular measure of tropical activity.  The intensity of the storms has been near average.  2017 has spawned two hurricanes, but no major hurricanes.  The 30-year average to date has been 1.4 hurricanes, with one major hurricane every two years.  It is still early in season, and things could change dramatically in the next month.  There does appear to be favorability for the development of another storm in the next week.

Holthaus refers to the eighth "named storm," which requires tropical storm strength with winds of 39 mph/63kph.  Not all tropical systems that form reach that criteria.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Daniel B. on August 20, 2017, 02:22:57 PM
Tropical Storm Harvey is the 8th named storm of hurricane season, more than 5 weeks ahead of schedule. 8th storm typically doesn't form until Sep 24th.

Expected to be ~hurricane strength near Central America on Monday.

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/898289578771046400

Radar loop at the link.

Not sure where the twitter got their information, but the average date, averaged over the past 30 years,  for the 8th tropical development has been Sept. 4.  Half the length claimed on the twitter post.  Perhaps there was some sort of quirk associated with those years that did not produce eight tropical storms.  Thus far, 2017 has had more tropical development than the average; 8 compared to 5.4, with only four years experiencing their eighth at an earlier date. 

But you are only looking at one particular measure of tropical activity.  The intensity of the storms has been near average.  2017 has spawned two hurricanes, but no major hurricanes.  The 30-year average to date has been 1.4 hurricanes, with one major hurricane every two years.  It is still early in season, and things could change dramatically in the next month.  There does appear to be favorability for the development of another storm in the next week.

Holthaus refers to the eighth "named storm," which requires tropical storm strength with winds of 39 mph/63kph.  Not all tropical systems that form reach that criteria.

I understand the definition of a "tropical storm."  I had less of an issue with cherry picking that precise type of activity over total storms or hurricanes.  My bigger issue was when the storm occurred, on average.  It appears to have occurred much earlier than you posted.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 23, 2017, 04:00:30 PM
If the emerging projections verify for Harvey, we could see a catastrophe for SE Texas and along the Louisiana coast, from the precipitation alone.  What remains to be seen is if the reinvigorated cyclone behaves similar to others over the past few years, feeding off a loaded atmosphere and excessively warm waters to intensify and bring storm surge and winds as additional factors.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 23, 2017, 04:32:01 PM
If the emerging projections verify for Harvey, we could see a catastrophe for SE Texas and along the Louisiana coast, from the precipitation alone.  What remains to be seen is if the reinvigorated cyclone behaves similar to others over the past few years, feeding off a loaded atmosphere and excessively warm waters to intensify and bring storm surge and winds as additional factors.

Also southeast Florida -- Miami.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: be cause on August 23, 2017, 06:33:33 PM
Hurricane Gert's remnants have brought chaos to NW Ireland up to 10cm/4" rain in a few hours has washed away roads,bridges and homes .
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 23, 2017, 06:41:28 PM
"Just-completed GFS model (12Z) shows nothing less than a flooding catastrophe for Texas. 24-48" [600 - 1200mm] of rain in 3 or 4 days...."

"For reference, Houston's rainiest day in history was 10.34" on 6/26/1989, during a similarly slow-moving tropical storm.
This is way worse."

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/900396554325860352
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Csnavywx on August 23, 2017, 07:12:33 PM
Reminds me of TS Allison. That was a huge flood-maker.

For reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Allison
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Csnavywx on August 23, 2017, 08:15:15 PM
The Euro's track is way worse. It essentially pulls an Allison with more favorable conditions.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Grubbegrabben on August 23, 2017, 10:23:53 PM
Forecast for Houston/Texas from yr.no. Idk how good the hour by hour rainfall forecast is for such an event but it seems like that record from 1989 could be broken.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 23, 2017, 11:05:12 PM
"12Z GFS printing out absurd rainfall totals on the TX Gulf Coast from #Harvey.
30"+[760mm+] in 24 hours, and 4 FEET [1,220mm] of rain in the next 7 days"
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/900413604440285185

Hurricane and tropical storm watches are up for the TX coast.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 23, 2017, 11:06:38 PM
"Before everyone goes hunting for the highest model QPF, here's a history lesson on observed MAX rainfall from TCs (data by @DRmetwatch)"
https://twitter.com/whatdoweseehere/status/900402727645216768

In inches [25.4 mm].
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 23, 2017, 11:14:47 PM
Harvey set to rapidly strengthen before Texas landfall.
Gulf of Mexico is among the warmest ocean basins in the world.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 24, 2017, 12:13:32 AM
New Orleans officials: don't panic, we're more prepared for rain than we were a month ago. #Harvey

Eric Holthaus:  If #Harvey's track shifts even 100 miles east, things are going to be interesting in New Orleans.
http://grist.org/briefly/new-orleans-is-now-planning-to-evacuate-the-city-if-a-heavy-rainstorm-comes/amp/ (http://grist.org/briefly/new-orleans-is-now-planning-to-evacuate-the-city-if-a-heavy-rainstorm-comes/amp/)

NWS New Orleans:  Here is the latest on Tropical Depression #Harvey. A lot of uncertainty & main concern right now is threat for heavy rain. #LAwx #MSwx
https://twitter.com/nwsneworleans/status/900475879926706176 (https://twitter.com/nwsneworleans/status/900475879926706176)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 24, 2017, 12:25:01 AM
"It has been 3266 days since the last hurricane made landfall in Texas (Ike-2008).  #Harvey"
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/900478134666919936
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 24, 2017, 01:07:07 AM
A Texas-size flood threatens the Gulf Coast, and we’re so not ready
... Floods like the one in the worst Harvey forecasts have come at an increasingly frequent pace. Since the 1950s, the Houston area has seen a 167 percent increase in heavy downpours. At least four rainstorms so severe they would occur only once in 100 years under normal conditions have hit the area since May 2015. With a warmer climate comes faster evaporation and a greater capacity for thunderstorms to produce epic deluges.

Houston has been criticized for unchecked development in its swampy suburbs, which has exacerbated its flooding problem by funneling water along streets and parking lots toward older, lower-income neighborhoods. Just inland, the rapidly-growing corridor of Texas hill country between San Antonio, Austin, and Dallas is sometimes referred to as “flash flood alley,” an increasingly paved area that often sees torrential rainstorms channeled along fast-rising creeks and streams.

Recent rains haven’t been kind to Louisiana, either. Last August, a 500-year rainstorm hit Baton Rouge, Louisiana. And a storm that hit New Orleans earlier this month was so intense locals called it a “mini-Katrina.” Ensuing floods revealed the city’s critically important drainage pump system was partially inoperable, and officials are now contemplating an unprecedented evacuation plan in case the predicted heavy rains materialize. An eastward shift in Harvey’s trajectory by 100 miles or so could force that difficult decision.

Next Tuesday happens to be the 12th anniversary of the landfall of Hurricane Katrina, a storm that many people in the region are still recovering from.

Seven months into the Trump administration, key federal disaster relief positions are still unoccupied: for example, an administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees the National Weather Service. The new FEMA director, Brock Long, was confirmed in late June, three weeks after the start of this year’s hurricane season.

In addition, Trump proposed significant cuts to disaster response agencies and denied emergency funding appeals in several states during his first months in office. A troubled federal flood insurance program covers just one-sixth of Houston residents.

If Harvey’s rains hit the coast with anywhere near the force of the most alarming predictions, we’d be in for disaster. And judging by how New Orleans and Houston have handled recent rains, coupled with the state of federal disaster relief, we’re not ready for it.
http://grist.org/article/a-texas-size-flood-threatens-the-gulf-coast-and-were-so-not-ready/ (http://grist.org/article/a-texas-size-flood-threatens-the-gulf-coast-and-were-so-not-ready/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 24, 2017, 01:16:54 AM
A Texas-size flood threatens the Gulf Coast, and we’re so not ready
... Floods like the one in the worst Harvey forecasts have come at an increasingly frequent pace. Since the 1950s, the Houston area has seen a 167 percent increase in heavy downpours. At least four rainstorms so severe they would occur only once in 100 years under normal conditions have hit the area since May 2015. With a warmer climate comes faster evaporation and a greater capacity for thunderstorms to produce epic deluges.

Houston has been criticized for unchecked development in its swampy suburbs, which has exacerbated its flooding problem by funneling water along streets and parking lots toward older, lower-income neighborhoods. Just inland, the rapidly-growing corridor of Texas hill country between San Antonio, Austin, and Dallas is sometimes referred to as “flash flood alley,” an increasingly paved area that often sees torrential rainstorms channeled along fast-rising creeks and streams.

Recent rains haven’t been kind to Louisiana, either. Last August, a 500-year rainstorm hit Baton Rouge, Louisiana. And a storm that hit New Orleans earlier this month was so intense locals called it a “mini-Katrina.” Ensuing floods revealed the city’s critically important drainage pump system was partially inoperable, and officials are now contemplating an unprecedented evacuation plan in case the predicted heavy rains materialize. An eastward shift in Harvey’s trajectory by 100 miles or so could force that difficult decision.

Next Tuesday happens to be the 12th anniversary of the landfall of Hurricane Katrina, a storm that many people in the region are still recovering from.

Seven months into the Trump administration, key federal disaster relief positions are still unoccupied: for example, an administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees the National Weather Service. The new FEMA director, Brock Long, was confirmed in late June, three weeks after the start of this year’s hurricane season.

In addition, Trump proposed significant cuts to disaster response agencies and denied emergency funding appeals in several states during his first months in office. A troubled federal flood insurance program covers just one-sixth of Houston residents.

If Harvey’s rains hit the coast with anywhere near the force of the most alarming predictions, we’d be in for disaster. And judging by how New Orleans and Houston have handled recent rains, coupled with the state of federal disaster relief, we’re not ready for it.
http://grist.org/article/a-texas-size-flood-threatens-the-gulf-coast-and-were-so-not-ready/ (http://grist.org/article/a-texas-size-flood-threatens-the-gulf-coast-and-were-so-not-ready/)

It's always the least among us that suffer the most in these situations, and this will be no different.  More barriers to evacuation, fewer options to go to, and what little they have mostly unprotected and uninsured.  It will hard to avoid a devastating human toll if the current forecasts verify.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 24, 2017, 01:53:08 PM
Michael Ventrice:  #Harvey is rapidly intensifying. The storm is likely to achieve Hurricane intensity in a matter of hours, a full day earlier than NHC fcst
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/900684839459991552

Radar loop at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 24, 2017, 02:45:34 PM
Michael Ventrice:  #Harvey is rapidly intensifying. The storm is likely to achieve Hurricane intensity in a matter of hours, a full day earlier than NHC fcst
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/900684839459991552

Radar loop at the link.

Looks like it could easily reach high end Cat 2 or even 3 status.  That greatly enchances the surge and along with the extreme precipitation is really bad news.

"And here's the latest 12Z guidance for #Harvey: SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  76% is   6.2 times sample mean (11.5%)"

https://mobile.twitter.com/JamesBelanger/status/900697435189727232
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 24, 2017, 03:27:38 PM
"Latest (06Z) GFS still showing catastrophic rainfall of 20-30"+ over multiple days after #Harvey landfall.
Please prepare, Texas & Louisiana"
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/900696865032687617

"Excellent advice from a trusted meteorologist in the insurance industry...”:
"Advice for those in #Harvey path:
1) Breathe
2) Take photos of your stuff
3) Prepare for worst; hope for best
4) Obey evacuation orders"
https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/900709918155689984

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: FishOutofWater on August 24, 2017, 05:35:22 PM
Harvey is intensifying rapidly and NHC officially forecasts it to reach major hurricane strength before landfall, then stall over coastal Texas. Extreme flooding is likely. A destructive storm surge will be followed by days of heavy rain.

A major disaster is developing on the twelfth anniversary of Katrina.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on August 24, 2017, 05:44:49 PM
Harvey is intensifying rapidly and NHC officially forecasts it to reach major hurricane strength before landfall, then stall over coastal Texas. Extreme flooding is likely. A destructive storm surge will be followed by days of heavy rain.

A major disaster is developing on the twelfth anniversary of Katrina.
Just as well FEMA was put back together after Katrina as an effective US Agency.
Not climate change, merely an extreme weather event. Rick Perry and Scott Pruitt have said so and so it must be true. OK?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: rboyd on August 24, 2017, 06:35:56 PM
From the NOAA discussion of Harvey on their site "With Harvey now strengthening at a faster rate than indicated in previous advisories, the intensity forecast has become quite concerning". The scientific equivalent of "oh shit!"

The rate of intensification, driven by the warm Gulf of Mexico, seems to be catching NOAA out. Could be a sign of things to come, also harder to argue that its just natural variability.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on August 24, 2017, 06:57:51 PM
From the NOAA discussion of Harvey on their site "With Harvey now strengthening at a faster rate than indicated in previous advisories, the intensity forecast has become quite concerning". The scientific equivalent of "oh shit!"

The rate of intensification, driven by the warm Gulf of Mexico, seems to be catching NOAA out. Could be a sign of things to come, also harder to argue that its just natural variability.
This very nasty beast is not a great big weather system that gradually gained energy as it wandered across the Atlantic from West Africa. After nearly dying on the Yucatan peninsula, its energy is all from the Gulf picked up - just like that, a local event. Methinks the NHC will be pondering this event for some time to come
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 24, 2017, 07:40:39 PM
Harvey is now a hurricane, with 80mph (130kph) winds. 

"@NHC_Atlantic now forecasting surge inundation up to 10' with #Harvey. And there will be waves on top.  Getting extremely serious."
https://twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/900738525787815936 (https://twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/900738525787815936)

"Latest (12Z) GFS shows extremely heavy rainfall from Hurricane #Harvey encroaching further inland. Austin & San Antonio should be alert."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/900773641851248641 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/900773641851248641)

Advisories, messages, storm surge inundation maps and more from the National Hurricane Center:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Harvey (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Harvey)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 24, 2017, 07:48:01 PM
Eric Holthaus: 
#Harvey is in rare company. Only 11 major hurricanes (Cat 3+) have hit south Texas since records began in 1850. The last was Bret in 1999.

Since 1999, the Texas coastline has added ~1.5M people.
The port in Corpus Christi is now the country's 4th largest. This is what it ships:

Parts of the Texas coastline, particularly near Houston, are some of the fastest growing places in the country, +50% or more since 2000.

Since 1999, when last major hurricane hit Texas, there's been a rebirth of the state's oil industry. Those facilities are at risk this week.

Basically, Texas is a totally different place than the last time a storm like #Harvey hit. Lots of new people & out-of-practice natives. 
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/900751589769568256
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 24, 2017, 07:53:01 PM
"Continued Rapid Intensification of #Harvey is likely from now until landfall Friday night in TX.
~10x more likely than in a "typical" storm"

"As referenced in the NHC discussion, the SHIPS rapid intensification probabilities for #Harvey are remarkably high.

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/900749046817542144
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 24, 2017, 07:56:11 PM
In a special 12p CDT update, NHC boosts Hurricane Harvey's landfall forecast:
High end Cat 3
Storm surge up to 12 feet
Rainfall up to 30"

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 24, 2017, 08:19:30 PM
"#BREAKING: Mayor Joe McComb asks that people of the city of Corpus Christi evacuate voluntarily."
https://twitter.com/emilyhamiltontv/status/900782095068430336

Corpus Christi is on the wide bay at the "3.75" line, south of the worst inundation forecast on this map:
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 24, 2017, 08:35:44 PM
Uh-oh. :o

Briana Whitney, reporter:

"I think people are smart enough to make their evacuation decisions & they don't need the government telling them what to do." -Mayor McComb"

""No specific shelters set up in town. We are asking residents to evacuate." -Corpus Christi Fire Chief Robert Rocha"

""I don't know when emergency operations will end at this point."
-Mayor Joe McComb"

https://twitter.com/brianawhitney/status/900783084530012160
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 24, 2017, 08:49:55 PM
Uh-oh. :o

Briana Whitney, reporter:

"I think people are smart enough to make their evacuation decisions & they don't need the government telling them what to do." -Mayor McComb"

""No specific shelters set up in town. We are asking residents to evacuate." -Corpus Christi Fire Chief Robert Rocha"

""I don't know when emergency operations will end at this point."
-Mayor Joe McComb"

https://twitter.com/brianawhitney/status/900783084530012160

SE and Gulf residents have always been stubborn and often ride out storms, but this is a textbook example of when the govt should be telling people what to do.  A lot of people there haven't seen a storm of this magnitude in their lifetimes. This has the potential to quickly overwhelm local and federal agencies from SE Texas through coastal Louisiana.  Could be another, "Heck of a job Brownie" moment, with a similar or worse toll.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 24, 2017, 09:14:37 PM
”Latest (12Z) Euro model rapidly intensifies Hurricane #Harvey, makes landfall, takes it back to sea, rapidly intensifies again to Houston.”

“To be honest, this would be a really, really bad thing for New Orleans, which would get the "dirty" side of the second landfall. Heavy rain.”

“Remember, no power = no AC [Air Conditioning] #Harvey”

“Corpus Christi buses now running free for anyone who wishes to be evacuated to San Antonio. Folks - this is as real as it gets #Harvey”

“FEMA has pre-positioned 250,000 meals, 77,000 liters of water and 4,000 tarps ahead of landfall by #Harvey”
“It won't be enough.”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/900795372884426752


“Potential flood disaster: Like GFS, European model forecasts large area 17-32" of rain thru Wed in eastern Texas. wapo.st/2w0UhBc “
https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/900789862755958786
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 24, 2017, 09:51:26 PM
Update:

City of Corpus Christi:  "Mayor McComb strongly encourages evacuation, especially the low lying areas of Area A and B as seen in the map below (pink and yellow area)."
https://twitter.com/cityofcc/status/900793570747195393
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 24, 2017, 11:56:29 PM
NHC Update, 4pm CDT:
Hurricane Harvey still forecast to make landfall near Corpus Christi, TX as a high-end Cat 3 w/ up to 35" of rainfall.

Here are the key messages for intensifying #Hurricane #Harvey for the 4 pm CDT Advisory. hurricanes.gov
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 24, 2017, 11:59:57 PM
Dallas, Texas is 250 miles (400km) from the coast.

City of Dallas:  #HurricaneHarvey The City of Dallas is prepared to offer shelters if needed.
https://twitter.com/cityofdallas/status/900788827232628736
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Ned W on August 25, 2017, 12:45:31 AM
NHC Update, 4pm CDT:
Hurricane Harvey still forecast to make landfall near Corpus Christi, TX as a high-end Cat 3 w/ up to 35" of rainfall.
I've been in two 7-inch rainstorms and those were more than enough for me. I can't imagine five times that much rain.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2017, 03:23:54 AM
Never mind the octopus in the parking garage....

"Gators and flooding advice via @txgatorsquad: Expect them to be displaced. Simply looking for higher ground. Leave alone until water recedes"
https://twitter.com/fbcso/status/900793654192869376

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 25, 2017, 03:44:39 AM
NHC Update, 4pm CDT:
Hurricane Harvey still forecast to make landfall near Corpus Christi, TX as a high-end Cat 3 w/ up to 35" of rainfall.
I've been in two 7-inch rainstorms and those were more than enough for me. I can't imagine five times that much rain.

The event that first inspired my interest in weather was a 22 inch rainfall in under 36 hours, and being stranded in the flood waters for days.  Luckily the house was elevated. Fun as a youngster, but would not want to go through anything like it as an old timer.  I have family in Corpus that are currently watching the track and have not yet evacuated.  The NE quad should spare CC the worst, but it's a roll of the dice relying on a track to verify.  At some point the weather takes over and it's too late to leave.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 25, 2017, 10:09:54 AM
Harvey is now category 2:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/250456.shtml (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/250456.shtml)

SUMMARY OF 300 AM CDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 95.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on August 25, 2017, 11:40:37 AM
NHC Update, 4pm CDT:
Hurricane Harvey still forecast to make landfall near Corpus Christi, TX as a high-end Cat 3 w/ up to 35" of rainfall.
I've been in two 7-inch rainstorms and those were more than enough for me. I can't imagine five times that much rain.

The event that first inspired my interest in weather was a 22 inch rainfall in under 36 hours, and being stranded in the flood waters for days.  Luckily the house was elevated. Fun as a youngster, but would not want to go through anything like it as an old timer.  I have family in Corpus that are currently watching the track and have not yet evacuated.  The NE quad should spare CC the worst, but it's a roll of the dice relying on a track to verify.  At some point the weather takes over and it's too late to leave.
NHC say that when this beast makes landfall it is likely to stall, i.e. rain up to 5 days ( and possible multiple storm surges ?).  Methinks I would be telling family to lock up, check the drains, fix the storm shutters and move inland. A nice hotel would be better than the floor in an emergency shelter.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2017, 12:13:44 PM
NHC Update, 4am CDT:
Hurricane #Harvey is now a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane, expected to reach Cat 3 before landfall later today.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901005763371335680

The latest @NWS rainfall forecast for Hurricane #Harvey maxes out the scale.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/900977411390545920

“I don't think I have ever seen a heavier rain forecast from @NWSWPC in my life- the size of the 20+ inches of rain area is staggering”
https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/901009587368849409


Dr. Rick Knabb, The Weather Channel's hurricane expert, and former head of the National Hurricane Center, shares a special message for Texas residents regarding #HurricaneHarvey
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/900838671775133696


South Florida will also be hit hard!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2017, 01:26:45 PM
Ryan Maue:  Up to 35" [889mm] rainfall forecast update by @NWSWPC from Hurricane #Harvey
Long duration flooding disaster imminent near coast & inland.
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/901033991733735424
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 25, 2017, 01:36:03 PM
NHC Update, 4pm CDT:
Hurricane Harvey still forecast to make landfall near Corpus Christi, TX as a high-end Cat 3 w/ up to 35" of rainfall.
I've been in two 7-inch rainstorms and those were more than enough for me. I can't imagine five times that much rain.

The event that first inspired my interest in weather was a 22 inch rainfall in under 36 hours, and being stranded in the flood waters for days.  Luckily the house was elevated. Fun as a youngster, but would not want to go through anything like it as an old timer.  I have family in Corpus that are currently watching the track and have not yet evacuated.  The NE quad should spare CC the worst, but it's a roll of the dice relying on a track to verify.  At some point the weather takes over and it's too late to leave.
NHC say that when this beast makes landfall it is likely to stall, i.e. rain up to 5 days ( and possible multiple storm surges ?).  Methinks I would be telling family to lock up, check the drains, fix the storm shutters and move inland. A nice hotel would be better than the floor in an emergency shelter.

Yes, have already done that.  I would have departed days ago. Adults, especially of the hardy coastal variety, can only be reasoned with so much.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on August 25, 2017, 03:24:58 PM
NHC Update, 4pm CDT:
Hurricane Harvey still forecast to make landfall near Corpus Christi, TX as a high-end Cat 3 w/ up to 35" of rainfall.
I've been in two 7-inch rainstorms and those were more than enough for me. I can't imagine five times that much rain.

The event that first inspired my interest in weather was a 22 inch rainfall in under 36 hours, and being stranded in the flood waters for days.  Luckily the house was elevated. Fun as a youngster, but would not want to go through anything like it as an old timer.  I have family in Corpus that are currently watching the track and have not yet evacuated.  The NE quad should spare CC the worst, but it's a roll of the dice relying on a track to verify.  At some point the weather takes over and it's too late to leave.
NHC say that when this beast makes landfall it is likely to stall, i.e. rain up to 5 days ( and possible multiple storm surges ?).  Methinks I would be telling family to lock up, check the drains, fix the storm shutters and move inland. A nice hotel would be better than the floor in an emergency shelter.

Yes, have already done that.  I would have departed days ago. Adults, especially of the hardy coastal variety, can only be reasoned with so much.
Trouble is, NHC have to give warnings a lot of times about possibilities that don't end up happening, so the "cry-wolf" syndrome takes root. Hope all goes well with the family.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: TerryM on August 25, 2017, 03:57:22 PM
I've been following at Weather Underground. This sounds like a real monster.
A grandson lives in Houston, but we found out he's been in Seattle for a week visiting his father. A huge relief to my wife.


946.6mb and falling is the latest I've heard.


Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on August 25, 2017, 06:25:49 PM
NHC Update, 4pm CDT:
Hurricane Harvey still forecast to make landfall near Corpus Christi, TX as a high-end Cat 3 w/ up to 35" of rainfall.
I've been in two 7-inch rainstorms and those were more than enough for me. I can't imagine five times that much rain.

The event that first inspired my interest in weather was a 22 inch rainfall in under 36 hours, and being stranded in the flood waters for days.  Luckily the house was elevated. Fun as a youngster, but would not want to go through anything like it as an old timer.  I have family in Corpus that are currently watching the track and have not yet evacuated.  The NE quad should spare CC the worst, but it's a roll of the dice relying on a track to verify.  At some point the weather takes over and it's too late to leave.
NHC say that when this beast makes landfall it is likely to stall, i.e. rain up to 5 days ( and possible multiple storm surges ?).  Methinks I would be telling family to lock up, check the drains, fix the storm shutters and move inland. A nice hotel would be better than the floor in an emergency shelter.

Yes, have already done that.  I would have departed days ago. Adults, especially of the hardy coastal variety, can only be reasoned with so much.
Just read nhc discussion #21. I really hope your family have left or are really well prepared.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 25, 2017, 06:26:17 PM
One thing the NHC and NWS forecast offices have gotten better at over the years is the use of distinct and sharper language to describe the threat and risks of extreme events.  You see a lot more "devastating impacts", "risk of injury or death" verbiage than in the past.  Connects back to the conservative scientists implications theme, and wholly appropriate as the risks are immediate and generally clear and present.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Daniel B. on August 25, 2017, 06:37:08 PM
One thing the NHC and NWS forecast offices have gotten better at over the years is the use of distinct and sharper language to describe the threat and risks of extreme events.  You see a lot more "devastating impacts", "risk of injury or death" verbiage than in the past.  Connects back to the conservative scientists implications theme, and wholly appropriate as the risks are immediate and generally clear and present.

That, and paths like the following, that show more than just the range of the expected path of the center.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.images.express.co.uk%2Fimg%2Fdynamic%2F153%2F590x%2Fsecondary%2FHurricane-Harvey-path-when-will-tropical-storm-hit-Texas-USA-weather-update-map-latest-forecast-1043779.jpg&hash=9afbe5e11aeb0ed918da16743bf28a9c)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 25, 2017, 06:58:35 PM
Very sobering summary from the Corpus Christi, TX forecast office
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2017, 08:14:27 PM
From the Oil and Gas thread:

With a six-foot rise in water, all six of Corpus Christi's refineries would flood.
Hurricane Harvey could bring twice that.


Hurricane Harvey aims for the Texas fracking boom’s favorite port
... Part of that concern is driven by where the storm is expected to make landfall. Corpus Christi, a critical port for the Texas oil and gas industry, is also one of the most vulnerable places in America when it comes to coastal flooding. An analysis earlier this year by the South Texas Economic Development Center predicted that 92 square miles of the Corpus Christi metro area would flood with a six-foot rise in water, including all six of the city’s refineries.

Harvey could bring up to twice that, with as much as 12 feet of storm surge potentially swamping refinery infrastructure, including huge tanks of crude oil, with saltwater.

As Emily Atkin writes in the New Republic, the pollution consequences of the storm could be immense. Harvey’s floodwaters could seep into massive underground gasoline storage facilities, potentially dislodging and floating the tanks.

Above ground, the port also has the capacity to store up to 3.2 million barrels of crude oil, infrastructure which could buckle and leak during the storm. Bloomberg reported that several refineries are filling their tanks with as much oil as possible before the storm hits to try to help weigh them down.
...
http://grist.org/article/hurricane-harvey-aims-for-the-texas-fracking-booms-favorite-port/ (http://grist.org/article/hurricane-harvey-aims-for-the-texas-fracking-booms-favorite-port/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2017, 08:19:13 PM
Eric Fisher: Meanwhile,  we can't sleep on this area of disturbed weather near Florida. May become #Irma and track near New England next week.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/901085987790520321
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2017, 08:28:29 PM
NWS:  View all tide gauges currently in high water condition at this address: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterconditions.html#high

NWS:  Tide gauges near Corpus Christi & Port Aransas indicate storm surge inundation of 1-2ft is already occurring https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8775237  #Harvey

https://twitter.com/nws/status/901136658199871489
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 25, 2017, 08:47:24 PM
If the latest projections verify, this could easily surpass Sandy and give Katrina a run for costliest US natural disaster.  Whether is becomes a 4 digit fatality event will depend on a lot of luck and fast actions on the ground.  Of course the track and intensity could change, but it's not looking good.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2017, 08:57:33 PM
And here's the Euro model.  :o

Hot off the press: new Euro suggests nearly 50" [1,270mm] of rainfall across SE #Texas in less than 5 days time...unreal #Harvey #Hurricane
https://twitter.com/met_khinz/status/901147550740336640
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 25, 2017, 08:57:52 PM
"ECMWF model output pushing 60-inches of rainfall over next 8 days as #Harvey meanders thru SE Texas. Time to abandon ship. "

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/901155459872292865
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2017, 09:07:42 PM
NHC Atlantic Ops: #Harvey is now a category 3 #hurricane with 120-mph winds & a pressure of 943 mb (27.85") See the latest advisory at hurricanes.gov
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/901156338549620738
(Radar loop at the link.)

GOES satellite imagery:  https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

Friday afternoon GOES IR satellite image below.
https://twitter.com/irisheagle/status/901156967464546305
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on August 25, 2017, 09:08:43 PM
"ECMWF model output pushing 60-inches of rainfall over next 8 days
Have yr family left? Roads all clogged up with traffic now.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 25, 2017, 09:28:48 PM
"ECMWF model output pushing 60-inches of rainfall over next 8 days
Have yr family left? Roads all clogged up with traffic now.

Thanks for asking. No communication since late last night.  My aunt intended to stay if the eye and NE quad remained to the north of CC, but all of that rain is going to be a problem for anyone that remains.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 25, 2017, 09:47:20 PM
Harvey is at 943mb and falling.  top 10 US landfalls.  My guess would be around 930 at landfall this evening.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: P-maker on August 25, 2017, 10:05:47 PM
Amazing how the ECMWF forecast map goes all white over Corpus Christi at the same time as the Arctic goes all blue. Could  there be a link between evaporative cooling of the Gulf of Mexico and the thin ice exodus in the Arctic?

The funny thing is, that #Harvey taking out six refineries in Corpus Christi will most likely mean a rise in the oil price. If you are into market fundamentalism, you will most likely see this as a good sign. For normal folks it should be considered a tragedy in the making.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2017, 10:11:34 PM
Harvey aftermath:  Areas "uninhabitable for weeks or months."

Zero mincing of words in @NWSCorpus #Harvey local statement. "Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period."
https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/901039973796859904

Remember, even if you survive the storm, there will likely be no electricity. No air conditioning.  And possibly no water, or sources of food, or fuel, or help.  And standing water and land will be highly polluted.  Think Hurricane Katrina.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2017, 10:15:29 PM
Per @NWSWPC, the reason there's no little "x" on Texas this graphic is bc their code is only designed to handle 30". #Harvey forecast is 35"
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901174083513065472
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: TerryM on August 25, 2017, 10:31:20 PM
Another thing worth considering is that without power the ATMs as well as credit/debit cards are all down.
Will we have a bunch of people who planned ahead and are carrying large bundles of cash, interacting with others unable to access any of their own money, in a region where everyone loves their guns?
Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2017, 10:39:40 PM
‘Prolonged misery’: Meteorologists break out the thesaurus for Hurricane Harvey.
Over the past two days, the storm — anticipated to hit Texas later Friday — has rapidly strengthened into a Category 3 major hurricane, packing 120 mph winds and a threatening a multi-day rainfall so heavy you’ll need a yardstick to measure it. The storm’s impact could be among the worst in U.S. weather history, rivaling even Hurricane Katrina.

The implications are hard to put into words, so I asked my meteorologist colleagues to describe them using one or two:

“Epic, unprecedented” — Brian McNoldy, hurricane specialist at University of Miami

“Unprecedented danger” — Marshall Shepherd, meteorology professor at University of Georgia

“In a word: life-changing. The question is where, how expansive, and how many people’s lives it will change. If nothing else this should be a big wake-up call to many.” — Anthony Fracasso, forecaster at the NOAA Weather Prediction Center

“Dangerous, scary” — Adam Sobel, hurricane expert, Columbia University

“Epic deluge” — Ryan Maue, hurricane expert, WeatherBELL analytics

“One word, given the storm’s longevity: torturous” — Jim Cantore, the Weather Channel

“Simply: overwhelming” — Taylor Trogdon, National Hurricane Center

“Prolonged misery” — Rick Smith, NWS meteorologist in Norman, Oklahoma

“Two answers, not playing by the rules with both. 1.) Forecast challenge of a career. 2.) Enormously challenging.” — Matt Lanza, energy industry meteorologist based in Houston
http://grist.org/briefly/prolonged-misery-meteorologists-break-out-the-thesaurus-for-hurricane-harvey/amp/ (http://grist.org/briefly/prolonged-misery-meteorologists-break-out-the-thesaurus-for-hurricane-harvey/amp/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: TerryM on August 25, 2017, 11:19:43 PM
‘Prolonged misery’: Meteorologists break out the thesaurus for Hurricane Harvey.
Over the past two days, the storm — anticipated to hit Texas later Friday — has rapidly strengthened into a Category 3 major hurricane, packing 120 mph winds and a threatening a multi-day rainfall so heavy you’ll need a yardstick to measure it. The storm’s impact could be among the worst in U.S. weather history, rivaling even Hurricane Katrina.

The implications are hard to put into words, so I asked my meteorologist colleagues to describe them using one or two:

“Epic, unprecedented” — Brian McNoldy, hurricane specialist at University of Miami

“Unprecedented danger” — Marshall Shepherd, meteorology professor at University of Georgia

“In a word: life-changing. The question is where, how expansive, and how many people’s lives it will change. If nothing else this should be a big wake-up call to many.” — Anthony Fracasso, forecaster at the NOAA Weather Prediction Center

“Dangerous, scary” — Adam Sobel, hurricane expert, Columbia University

“Epic deluge” — Ryan Maue, hurricane expert, WeatherBELL analytics

“One word, given the storm’s longevity: torturous” — Jim Cantore, the Weather Channel

“Simply: overwhelming” — Taylor Trogdon, National Hurricane Center

“Prolonged misery” — Rick Smith, NWS meteorologist in Norman, Oklahoma

“Two answers, not playing by the rules with both. 1.) Forecast challenge of a career. 2.) Enormously challenging.” — Matt Lanza, energy industry meteorologist based in Houston
http://grist.org/briefly/prolonged-misery-meteorologists-break-out-the-thesaurus-for-hurricane-harvey/amp/ (http://grist.org/briefly/prolonged-misery-meteorologists-break-out-the-thesaurus-for-hurricane-harvey/amp/)
Koch Soaker 8)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: wili on August 25, 2017, 11:23:49 PM
rs's latest on the subject:

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/08/25/harveys-mammoth-deluge-potential-some-models-are-showing-storm-could-produce-five-feet-of-rain/#comment-122226

Harvey’s Mammoth Deluge Potential: Some Models Are Showing Storm Could Produce Five Feet of Rain

Media, Texas, and Gulf Coast residents take note: the thing to be most concerned about with regards to Harvey is not its admittedly life-threatening storm surge and strong winds, but what is shaping up to be a potentially historic rainfall event.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2017, 11:25:55 PM
“In terms of economic impact, Harvey will probably be on par with Hurricane Katrina,” said University of Miami senior hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy. “The Houston area and Corpus Christi are going to be a mess for a long time.”

With time running out, thousands flee Hurricane Harvey
https://apnews.com/9a1b2e5f3a4a4213be31e48437d530cb/With-time-running-out,-thousands-flee-Hurricane-Harvey

 But thousands of others are not fleeing....
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: wili on August 25, 2017, 11:44:43 PM
This is the thing: People hear about sea level rise, and even at the extremes, it is measured in millimeters or at most centimeters per year.

Doesn't sound like much. Seems like something you can gradually plan for and avoid, slowly moving away from lower areas as they are more and more often covered at high tides...

But what we see here is that these higher sea levels serve as raised platforms from which GW-juiced monster storms like this push storm surges beyond anything seen in an areas history. And these are met by equally unprecedented deluges from the sky that last for days.

This is how more and more coastal cities will be damaged and destroyed (tho the myopia of Trump's infrastructure plan, insane insurance plans, and states where you can't even say the word GW will doom many areas to the slower death by a thousand ever higher tides...)

And we all get front seats to watch it happen this time.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2017, 12:15:31 AM
"As bad as it gets."
https://twitter.com/wxkev/status/901203890468777984

"The rarest of warnings now issued for Corpus Christi area: Extreme Wind Warning. Only used for wind events >115 mph. #Harvey"
"Extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation!...  Widespread winds of 115 to 145 mph....  Treat these as though a tornado was approaching...."
https://twitter.com/cyclonebiskit/status/901202591375380484
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2017, 01:00:34 AM
”I can't begin to describe how eerie it sounds outside right now...sounds like loud, booming thunder but it's not thunder..it's wind. #Harvey”
https://twitter.com/brianawhitney/status/901210633202487296

BREAKING: @CorpusChristiPD has ordered all officers cease responding to emergency calls until #HurricaneHarvey relents. Likely several hours
@CorpusChristiPD: Life threatening calls will be dispatched if conditions allow. #Harvey
https://twitter.com/corpuschristipd/status/901204783473729536

“Wow, already 5"[127mm]+ of rain from #Harvey, and the storm hasn't even made landfall yet.
It's going to be a long, long, long week.”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901212515933093890
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2017, 01:02:51 AM
The Weather Channel:  Winds up to 130mph.  Harvey is now a Category 4 Hurricane as it approaches landfall.  Pressure 941mb.  Moving NW at 8mph.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2017, 01:35:56 AM
Rockport, Texas is just north of Corpus Christi and is the likely point of hurricane center landfall.

Rockport mayor pro tem: Those who don't evacuate should mark Social Security number on their arm with a permanent marker
The mayor pro tem in the coastal city of Rockport, Texas had a grim message for residents in his city ahead of Hurricane Harvey’s arrival:

Those who don’t evacuate the city should prepare for the worst by writing their name and social security number on their arm.

“Those that are going to stay -- it’s unfortunate -- but they should make some type of preparation to mark their arm with a Sharpie Pen,” said Rockport Mayor Pro Tem Patrick Rios. “Put their social security number on it, and their name.”

“We can’t emphasize enough that this is a life-threatening storm. All the advice we can give is get out now.”
http://www.wfaa.com/weather/rockport-mayor-pro-tem-those-who-dont-evacuate-should-mark-social-security-number-on-their-arm/467378851 (http://www.wfaa.com/weather/rockport-mayor-pro-tem-those-who-dont-evacuate-should-mark-social-security-number-on-their-arm/467378851)


Edit:
"6:10 pm. #HARVEY is now Cat 4 & we're at Ground Zero. The hotel manager called us all to meeting. Topic: what to do if hotel blows apart."
https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/901220684281651200 (https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/901220684281651200)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Reallybigbunny on August 26, 2017, 02:43:28 AM
Interesting live feed to follow Harvey below:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFQTWzsE_cI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFQTWzsE_cI)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Acap3IrCYYk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Acap3IrCYYk)


Can anyone suggest better live sites?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2017, 03:41:21 AM
"Yesterday midday NHC forecast almost a category 4 #hurricane near landfall-fantastic prediction! Today's events are NOT a surprise #Harvey"
https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/901242863132049408


Edit:
"Wind speed estimated by Corpus Christi Doppler radar near 140 mph immediately ENE of Rockport, Texas. Extreme surge likely ongoing at coast."
https://twitter.com/anthonywx/status/901257859354296320
(Doppler images at the link.)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2017, 04:08:11 AM
Should we believe the models?

Some of the rainfall forecasts from various model runs are even more mind-boggling than the official outlook. In many cases, the totals are “breaking the map”—producing local totals well beyond the highest-value colors on a particular model-derived map.  It is important not to fixate on a particular model solution or a single forecast, because the contours of the heaviest rain could easily shift, and there may be a fairly sharp northwest edge to the most torrential sustained downpours. The outlook is also contingent on the notion (strongly supported by models) that Harvey will remain more or less stationary for several days. If Harvey somehow moves more quickly than expected, the risk of the heaviest rains will drop sharply.

I asked precipitation modeling expert Russ Schumacher (Colorado State University) to weigh in on how we should approach the seemingly outlandish high-end model output. He said: “Harvey is poised to maximize both rain rate and rain duration. Tropical cyclones are especially efficient at wringing moisture out of the atmosphere, and this storm is staying close to the moisture source (the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico). Both of these factors are likely to contribute to very high rain rates.  And then there’s the motion of Harvey, which looks like it might be almost stationary for multiple days, which will yield an especially long duration of rainfall over parts of the Texas Gulf Coast.

“We don’t really have a great sense for how well we should expect our models to perform in these scenarios, because they happen so rarely that we don’t have analogous cases to compare them against! Without more investigation, it’s hard to say for sure whether the global models and the more localized, convection-allowing models are representing the rainfall processes differently, but they’re delivering very much the same message: very high rain rates for an exceptionally long time. And although some of these extremely high point rainfall totals are remarkable, what’s probably going to be the bigger issue is the volume of water that will fall, with 10+ inches of rain over a large region, regardless of where the local maxima end up happening."

The take-home message is that large swaths of southern and eastern Texas could see devastating and potentially catastrophic flooding, perhaps developing or extending well into next week. Residents should prepare as if they may experience some of the highest water levels on record for their area.

Major Hurricane Harvey Bears Down on Texas; Catastrophic Flooding Likely
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/major-hurricane-harvey-bears-down-texas-catastrophic-flooding-likely (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/major-hurricane-harvey-bears-down-texas-catastrophic-flooding-likely)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 26, 2017, 05:04:46 AM
Harvey continues to deepen, now at 938mb, winds officially 130mph.

Terrible disaster unfolding before our eyes.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2017, 05:08:21 AM
"One more #GOES16 30-sec VIS loop showing #Harvey approaching the Texas coast as the sun sets - data preliminary and non-operational"
https://twitter.com/danlindsey77/status/901260281397084160
(Satellite gif at the link.)

"Winds have gone dead calm in Rockport, Texas as the eye has moved overhead. Gusts to 108 mph reported less than an hour ago."
https://twitter.com/hfsweather/status/901277702145159168

"Latest storm / damage reports from Hurricane #Harvey:"
https://twitter.com/scottskomo/status/901276912714104832

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2017, 05:17:49 AM
When weather models get completely befuddled:

I understand that you all like humor during these dark times so I present you with this evening’s spaghetti plot of track models that were initialized at 6pm CT, and came out shortly thereafter. They are nonsensical. I posted them to Twitter with this comment: “Great to see that the latest forecast models are finally getting a good handle on Harvey’s inland track.”
https://spacecityweather.com/harvey-after-dark-what-we-know-after-day-one/amp/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2017, 05:30:00 AM
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901279481670680576
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2017, 05:41:02 AM
 Land there is flat; little to disrupt the airflow.

Ryan Maue:  "Half of Hurricane #Harvey is ashore over land including half of its eye.  Unphased, no sign of weakening."
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/901269861967560705
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Ajpope85 on August 26, 2017, 05:52:57 AM
Local news program is live broadcasting on youtube here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTXQVOtroIQ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTXQVOtroIQ)

Here's a guy live streaming

https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1zqKVRbYXWWKB? (https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1zqKVRbYXWWKB?)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2017, 06:19:49 AM
Landfall of Hurricane #Harvey
August 25, 2017
(via NOAA GOES-16)

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901296864946929664
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2017, 12:45:52 PM
Update as of 4am CDT, 5 am ET:  Harvey is weakening but barely moving, and expected to remain not far from the Gulf at tropical storm strength for days.  Although it is moving slightly inland, it "continues to bring life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas coast."

Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
400 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

Harvey's eye has moved inland gradually during the past few hours,
and maximum winds have decreased significantly since landfall.
Radar velocity data from the Corpus Christi NOAA Doppler radar are
showing winds as high as 90 kt at an elevation of 3000-3500 ft in
the northwestern eyewall.  The advisory intensity is therefore set
at 85 kt, which could still be a little generous.  Continued
weakening is expected as Harvey's eye continues to move inland, and
maximum sustained winds are likely to fall below hurricane force
later today.  A more gradual weakening trend is anticipated after
that point, and Harvey is forecast to maintain tropical storm
strength at least through day 4, especially if part of its
circulation remains over water.  The updated NHC intensity forecast
continues a similar weakening trend noted in previous advisories and
is closest to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA).

The initial motion has continued to decrease, and it is now
estimated to be 325/5 kt.  As the steering currents around Harvey
continue to collapse, the cyclone is expected to stall or meander
inland over southeastern Texas.  Only a few models show any sort of
definitive northeastward motion at the end of the forecast period,
and for the most part, the most reliable models keep Harvey over
southeastern Texas through day 5.  The NHC track forecast depicts
Harvey taking a slow counterclockwise loop just inland from the
coast.  This track is expected to exacerbate the potential for
catastrophic flooding from heavy rainfall at least through the
middle of next week.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey is moving farther inland over southeastern Texas and
continues to bring life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind
hazards to portions of the Texas coast.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could still reach heights of 6
to 12 feet above ground level at the coast between Port Aransas and
Port O'Connor.  For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. Due to the slow
motion of Harvey and a prolonged period of onshore flow, water
levels will remain elevated for several days.

3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 30 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 40 inches, through Wednesday.
Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/260855.shtml? (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/260855.shtml?)

Update:
A NOAA tide gauge at Port Lavaca, Texas, recently measured a water
level of 6.6 feet above Mean Higher High Water.

An automated mesonet rain gauge near Victoria, Texas, is reporting
a 24 h precipitation total of 16.43 inches.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/260955.shtml? (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/260955.shtml?)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2017, 01:02:20 PM
Corpus Christi weather office being evacuated. (Image)

Latest TWC rainfall forecast map (image)

Precipitable water:
Jim Cantore: 3.26" PWAT!! Never seen one past 2.85"
https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/901391293368107009

Hurricane Harvey Exploding Power Lines, Violent Wind & Storm Surge Rockport, Texas
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=go-rFTzX6LU
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2017, 01:06:49 PM
Hurricane Harvey Could Also Be a Major Pollution Disaster
The powerful storm is headed straight toward the heart of the American petrochemical industry, while a key EPA response position remains unfilled.
Environmental advocates are also worried that Harvey will create long-term public health problems due to accidental toxic substance releases, and not just from refineries and power plants. In the 30 counties where a disaster has been declared, there are dozens of Superfund sites, many of which are essentially waste pits containing harmful chemicals. The San Jacinto River Waste Pits, for example, contain carcinogenic dioxins, which are linked to birth defects. Advocates also rightly point out that communities living closest to all these sites—both the Superfunds and the refineries—are disproportionately low-income and minority. “This is an environmental justice issue,” Enck said.
https://newrepublic.com/article/144513/hurricane-harvey-also-major-pollution-disaster
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2017, 01:13:16 PM
Harvey is not the only storm currently raging:

Typhoon Hato, a maximum category 10 storm, has slammed into Hong Kong and Macau with destructive winds and waves which uprooted trees, flooded streets and forced most businesses to close.

Three people have died and two gone missing in Macau, according to a Civil Defence Centre announcement reported by the South China Morning Post.

One of those killed was a 30-year-old man who was hit by a falling wall, the report said.

In Hong Kong more than 400 flights were cancelled, financial markets suspended and all schools were closed as Hato bore down on the city, the first category 10 storm to hit Hong Kong since typhoon Vicente in 2012.

- AAP/New Zealand Herald, Aug 23, 2017

Typhoon Hato, a maximum category 10 storm, slams into Hong Kong, Macau
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11909596 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11909596)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on August 26, 2017, 03:30:35 PM
This is a thoughtful article on how Harvey Floods could stuff the flood insurance system.
Also highlights how much money is wasted rebuilding in high-flood-risk locations.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/08/how-hurricane-harvey-could-cause-long-term-devastation/538080/ (https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/08/how-hurricane-harvey-could-cause-long-term-devastation/538080/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2017, 04:07:35 PM
Houston, Texas roads are beginning to flood.

Chief Art Acevedo : Heavy rain with moderate wind in our area. Street flooding is occurring please stay off the roads.
https://twitter.com/artacevedo/status/901415065341095937

High water locations / road closures:
https://traffic.houstontranstar.org/roadclosures/roadclosures.aspx?typ=hw#highwater
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2017, 04:18:39 PM
From yesterday.  Radar loop at the link.

Brian McNoldy:  A spectacular example of an eyewall replacement cycle in #Harvey today... this 8-hour radar loop is mesmorizing. @UMiamiRSMAS
https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/901179954150486019
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2017, 04:22:00 PM
Hurricane Harvey: Texas power outages affect more than quarter-million
More than a quarter-million customers are without power in Texas early Saturday after Hurricane Harvey made landfall. Utilities are reporting outages affecting more than 261,000 customers.
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/hurricane-harvey-texas-power-outages-affect-more-than-255000/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/hurricane-harvey-texas-power-outages-affect-more-than-255000/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 26, 2017, 04:45:45 PM
Heard from my relative in Corpus this morning and she is safe with no damage, and preparing for the deluge.

All around the world it's people like those in the snip below that are most vulnerable to these cyclones and other natural diasters.  Also saw that 60% of Rockport's 9000 residents remained in place, and this town was hit with 130mph winds.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 26, 2017, 04:58:10 PM
Reports coming in from Rockport, extreme damage as seen below.  Also, peak winds in Aransas, where the gentleman quoted above remained, were recorded at 132mph.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 26, 2017, 05:14:34 PM
Scribble emphasizes the risks from feet of rainfall in the coming days:

Title: "Harvey’s Mammoth Deluge Potential: Some Models Are Showing Storm Could Produce Five Feet of Rain"

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/08/25/harveys-mammoth-deluge-potential-some-models-are-showing-storm-could-produce-five-feet-of-rain/

Extract: "Consensus models now predict that peak rainfall totals will be around 35 inches in association with Harvey. This is due to the dual facts that Harvey is currently a very moisture-rich storm and that the storm is expected to stall for between 5 and 10 days following landfall. The storm is predicted to hover along the coastline, drawing in an unusually intense flow of moisture from a much warmer than normal Gulf, and to generate severe thunderstorms hour after hour, day after day. And this kind of rain event, if it emerges, could produce a disaster of historic proportions for Texas.

It’s worth noting that rainfall totals could also exceed the consensus forecast. Some models are now predicting upwards of 50 or 60 inches of rainfall by the time Harvey leaves the Texas area later next week (see top image above).
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2017, 06:23:56 PM
"Rainfall amounts rising from #Harvey, nearing 15 inches in some areas".  [image]
https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/901471006187024387

Harvey's forward motion has all but stopped, meaning the same areas will be deluged for hours or days.

CenterPoint Energy:  As widespread flooding & tornadoes are expected to persist for several days, #Harvey power outages will take longer than usual to repair.
https://twitter.com/cnpalerts/status/901474170567110657

Precipitation forecast for Saturday from the NWS WPC.  (Image)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2017, 06:31:14 PM
Rafael Lemaitre: White Oak Bayou now vs yesterday. Still early. #harvey
https://twitter.com/itsraflemaitre/status/901454210994126848

Steve Bowen:  Worth monitoring closely: White Oak Bayou in Houston, Texas is rising rapidly. Latest NWS forecast shows major flood stage tomorrow. #Harvey
https://twitter.com/stevebowenwx/status/901453261764530177
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on August 26, 2017, 11:20:19 PM
Looks overblown. Nearing San Antonio already.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 26, 2017, 11:40:23 PM
Big test for Houston.  Overnight could see a foot or more of rain, depending on where the banding and gradient sets up.  Americans could be waking up tomorrow to a crisis in one of its biggest cities.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Csnavywx on August 26, 2017, 11:41:40 PM
Steering flow aloft has collapsed. No movement in the past 2 hours. Due to the strengthening mid-upper ridge to the northwest and a relative weakening of the ridging over the GoM, I would expect a very slow cyclonic loop or S/SE movement to commence sometime tomorrow. The ECMWF has been on top of this and dt/dprog is low. It brings the center back over water sometime Monday morning, offering a window for the circulation to regenerate somewhat. Also, that coastal configuration would be terrible as a rain-cooled dome can cause/reinforce a coastal front setup and enhance deep moist convergence. Warm-rain processes (low/no ice crystal or Bergeron process) are extremely efficient at converting this type of setup into copious amounts of rain.

As for the next 24 hours, we'll have to watch to see where the next feeder band(s) set up. The latest HRRR runs show the feeder band closest to the core migrating slowly east and then stalling near Houston tonight. Certainly possible.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2017, 11:46:53 PM
Buffalo Bayou, the main river that goes through downtown Houston, is now expected to reach record flood stage due to #Harvey's rainfall.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901536460393783296 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901536460393783296)
Image1

[Forecast] for a record crest of Brazos River in TX is prompting mandatory evacuations in parts of Houston metro.
https://twitter.com/afreedma/status/901533084708896769 (https://twitter.com/afreedma/status/901533084708896769)
Image 2

Mayor of Holiday Lakes along the Brazos River issued a mandatory evacuation. They're asking everyone to leave by mid-day Sunday #khou11
https://twitter.com/erikaferrandotv/status/901537695800987648 (https://twitter.com/erikaferrandotv/status/901537695800987648)

“Virtually every river and stream between San Antonio and Houston will see record or near-record flooding this week.”
http://grist.org/article/hurricane-harvey-will-bring-some-of-the-heaviest-downpours-anyone-has-ever-seen/ (http://grist.org/article/hurricane-harvey-will-bring-some-of-the-heaviest-downpours-anyone-has-ever-seen/)
Image 3
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 27, 2017, 12:31:36 AM
Steering flow aloft has collapsed. No movement in the past 2 hours. Due to the strengthening mid-upper ridge to the northwest and a relative weakening of the ridging over the GoM, I would expect a very slow cyclonic loop or S/SE movement to commence sometime tomorrow. The ECMWF has been on top of this and dt/dprog is low. It brings the center back over water sometime Monday morning, offering a window for the circulation to regenerate somewhat. Also, that coastal configuration would be terrible as a rain-cooled dome can cause/reinforce a coastal front setup and enhance deep moist convergence. Warm-rain processes (low/no ice crystal or Bergeron process) are extremely efficient at converting this type of setup into copious amounts of rain.

As for the next 24 hours, we'll have to watch to see where the next feeder band(s) set up. The latest HRRR runs show the feeder band closest to the core migrating slowly east and then stalling near Houston tonight. Certainly possible.

The 21z HRRR backed off on amounts (but still 10 inches) but expanded the banding across Gavelston Bay, and it's still raining at the end of the run.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 27, 2017, 02:31:47 AM
Steering flow aloft has collapsed. No movement in the past 2 hours. Due to the strengthening mid-upper ridge to the northwest and a relative weakening of the ridging over the GoM, I would expect a very slow cyclonic loop or S/SE movement to commence sometime tomorrow. The ECMWF has been on top of this and dt/dprog is low. It brings the center back over water sometime Monday morning, offering a window for the circulation to regenerate somewhat. Also, that coastal configuration would be terrible as a rain-cooled dome can cause/reinforce a coastal front setup and enhance deep moist convergence. Warm-rain processes (low/no ice crystal or Bergeron process) are extremely efficient at converting this type of setup into copious amounts of rain.

As for the next 24 hours, we'll have to watch to see where the next feeder band(s) set up. The latest HRRR runs show the feeder band closest to the core migrating slowly east and then stalling near Houston tonight. Certainly possible.

The 21z HRRR backed off on amounts (but still 10 inches) but expanded the banding across Gavelston Bay, and it's still raining at the end of the run.

Subsequent runs have held on to the expanded precip banding, but have restored higher totals, with 12-16 inches across Houston metro between now and 11am local.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2017, 02:58:18 AM
"Chilling statement on #Harvey from Aransas Co, TX Sheriff Bill Mills. Didn't want to shorten, as the magnitude is sad, yet sobering...."
https://twitter.com/AndreaButera/status/901602718657257473
(Message at link)

"Tornado coming towards us Barker Cypress "
https://twitter.com/its_Glose/status/901566646330019840
(Video at link)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2017, 03:05:22 AM
"Harvey is expected to move about 100 miles in the next 5 days—a speed of less than 1mph.
Tremendous flood potential."
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901606187224924160
Image 1

It's all about the water now. Huge chunk of real estate (60,000 sq mi) under high or moderate risk for excessive rain + storm surge #Harvey
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901577848531517440
Image 2

HRRR model thru Sunday morning shows non-stop feeder bands of extreme rainfall spiraling around former Hurricane #Harvey
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901605686835953664
(Model radar loop at the link.)

Latest (23Z) high-res HRRR model shows >24" of rain over west Houston suburbs btw now & mid-Sunday.
#Harvey won't move much til Wed.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901608298243178496
Image 3

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2017, 03:09:07 AM
NHC Atlantic Ops:  A low over Florida could become a tropical or subtropical depression early next week off the southeast US coast hurricanes.gov  #92L
https://mobile.twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/901547866036076545
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2017, 04:46:29 AM
Extremely rare "flash flood emergency" declared by National Weather Service in Houston.
Rainfall rates of 3-4" per hour for the next 3+hrs
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901635192015642624 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901635192015642624)

FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for western parts of the Houston metro including downtown Houston and Missouri City. #HOUwx

@NWSHouston NWS: "Extremely dangerous & life-threatening situation"
"do not...travel unless you are fleeing an area...or under an evacuation order."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901636945666646017 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901636945666646017)

------
The 1st and only other time a "flash flood emergency" has been declared by @NWSHouston was 5/26/15, this happened:
http://www.chron.com/news/houston-weather/article/Remembering-the-Memorial-Day-Flood-one-America-s-11176375.php#photo-8055129 (http://www.chron.com/news/houston-weather/article/Remembering-the-Memorial-Day-Flood-one-America-s-11176375.php#photo-8055129)
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901635989046648833 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901635989046648833)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 27, 2017, 05:53:07 AM
Well it's not even midnight and the situation in Houston is deteriorating rapidly.  Prolific rainfall rates and widespread flooding, rivers and bayous are surging.  Bands will continue to stream in overnight from the Gulf.  Nighttime is the worst possible time for all of this to happen.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 27, 2017, 06:04:21 AM
A 6.04 inch per hour rate was recorded near Houston, marking a 1 in 500 year event threshold.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/901652168196968448
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Csnavywx on August 27, 2017, 06:16:34 AM
Disastrous rainfall rates in that band. Got a merger coming up too. Another band could work its way in later tomorrow morning. The mass convergence on the E/SE quad is incredible right now.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Csnavywx on August 27, 2017, 06:19:07 AM
Trained spotter report of 10" in 1.5 hours. Eye-popping rainfall amounts under that band.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Csnavywx on August 27, 2017, 06:31:25 AM
Yep, band merger ongoing with massive overshooting tops on the storms. Houston is in serious trouble tonight. I really don't remember ever seeing this much lightning during a tropical system. It's bizarre seeing strobe lightning in a TC feeder band.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Reallybigbunny on August 27, 2017, 07:53:45 AM
Great live streaming as Houston is very quickly going under water right now. Some areas getting 6-7 inches per hour. Great viewing at link below!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOwOK7e940o (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOwOK7e940o)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 27, 2017, 10:29:12 AM
Hurricane Harvey: Texas power outages affect more than quarter-million

Outages peaked at ~300,000 yesterday:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/08/hurricane-harvey-power-outages/ (http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/08/hurricane-harvey-power-outages/)

Back down to ~250,000 this morning (UTC)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on August 27, 2017, 12:10:07 PM
ASIF is a damn sight better info centre on Harvey than the mainstream media. Looks like social media is doing a first class job as well.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Reallybigbunny on August 27, 2017, 12:33:06 PM
OMG I can't bring myself to believe the rainfall extent in Houston and surrounds is really happening. I have been tuned in since Harvey hit land and it is happening as predicted. The people of Houston did not prepare for this. Best wishes to all affected! :'(
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: wili on August 27, 2017, 01:03:17 PM
Well put, geront and rbb.

For uptodate coverage of the unfolding horrors, the best spot is the comments section at Cat6:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/heavy-damage-texas-harvey-now-tropical-storm (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/heavy-damage-texas-harvey-now-tropical-storm)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 27, 2017, 01:05:36 PM
An apparently unprecented warning statement issued from NWS.  Note that approximately 5 million people in Houston are under a Flash Flood Emergency, and heavy rain continues.  The latest Euro run is grim for Houston, taking Harvey back the Gulf and bringing it ashore just west of Houston on Wednesday.  It would be beyond catastrophic, if that is possible.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2017, 01:26:35 PM
8/27 554AM: @hcfcd reports water entering second story of houses and apartments near Hobby Airport & lower Hunting Bayou near I-10. #houwx
https://mobile.twitter.com/txstormchasers/status/901760013118709761

Chief Art Acevedo: have reports of people getting into attic to escape floodwater do not do so unless you have an ax or means to break through onto your roof
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901726809141649408

"Flash Flood Emergency" was not severe enough so @NWSHouston just issued a"Flash Flood Emergency For Catastrophic Life Threatening Flooding" :

NWS Houston: 1:45 AM CDT FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY LIST UPDATE. CATASTROPHIC LIFE THREATENING FLOODING ONGOING ACROSS SE TEXAS. #houwx #glswx #txwx #bcswx
https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/901697054812114945

A new "Flash Flood Emergency for Life-Threatening Catastrophic Flooding" just now:
>1000 high water rescues so far, people fleeing to attics
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901748106600972289

NWS Houston: NEW FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC
FLOODING... #txwx #houwx #glswx #bcswx #Harvey
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901748524060106753

Just a reminder, a "Flash Flood Emergency for Life-Threatening Catastrophic Flooding" wasn't a thing before tonight. @NWSHouston created it.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901749174139367425
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2017, 01:37:19 PM
Majority of channels are out of banks. Visit harriscountyfws.org for more information. #houwx #txwx #harvey
https://twitter.com/hcfcd/status/901700260464128001

Greg Postel: This could easily be one of the worst flooding disasters in U.S. History.  The heavy rain will last thru much of the week    #txwx #Harvey
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901742839305928704

Ugh, latest NHC update shows the center of #Harvey now more likely to move south & possibly back over the Gulf before heading toward Houston
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901743837155962880

New 7-day NWS forecast calls for an additional 20-25" on top of the 10-25" that's already fallen in and around Houston.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901760358460776448


Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 27, 2017, 01:52:15 PM
Chilling and heartbreaking listening to the police and fire scanners from Harris County, Texas.  High water is preventing many rescue attempts by vehicle.  There is resignation and frustration in the voices of the responders.  They will need to bring out the boats, and helicopters at daybreak.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2017, 03:16:23 PM
"There are no words. "
https://mobile.twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/901794038289805312/photo/1
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on August 27, 2017, 03:31:38 PM
Chilling and heartbreaking listening to the police and fire scanners from Harris County, Texas.  High water is preventing many rescue attempts by vehicle.  There is resignation and frustration in the voices of the responders.  They will need to bring out the boats, and helicopters at daybreak.
Have the emergency services access to amphibious vehicles ?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2017, 03:33:53 PM
This is the #KHOU11 lobby, filling with water. Studio too. Crew is now broadcasting from upstairs. Going on 12 hours straight.

We are now moving operations to the second floor...Water is quickly coming into our building in the lobby
https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexandriaKHOU/status/901781852096262144 (https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexandriaKHOU/status/901781852096262144)

KHOU has a live feed on Facebook from their makeshift studio on the second floor.  "KHOU 11 News"


UPDATE:  KHOU was forced off the air after their studio flooded.  They were able to relocate to a temporary studio 25 miles away:
"We made it! 25 miles in 2 hours. Thanks @DarbyKHOU. Here's our new temp home - PBS station @UHouston #khou11"
https://mobile.twitter.com/khou/status/901935622545436673

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on August 27, 2017, 03:37:19 PM
The inundation map around Buffalo Bayou at 62.5' seems to show, on a 48.7' pre-prepared FEMA flood map, relatively little of the adjacent city is affected so far whereas the current water level is 62.3' (just barely a record) with a further 13' is apparently foreseen.

Tucson is quite flat so a much wider area will be affected. Flood boundaries of the 1992 event (from aerial photos) can't be used because of subsequent land subsidence (land sinking after ground water pumping) into a deeper bowl configuration.

Historic Crests
(1) 61.23 ft on 03/04/1992
(2) 60.98 ft on 04/28/2009
(3) 58.28 ft on 05/26/2015
(4) 57.72 ft on 04/18/2016
(5) 57.31 ft on 05/18/1989

Parts of Harris County have dropped between 10 and 12 feet since the 1920s, according to data from the U.S. Geological Survey.

State and local officials have made various efforts over the past 40 years to stabilize the ground, but some areas continue to sink - by as much as 2 inches per year.

Spring Branch, where Interstate 10 and Beltway 8 meet, has dropped 4 feet since 1975. Jersey Village, along Route 290 and to the west of Beltway 8, is almost 2 feet lower than it was in 1996. And Greater Greenspoint, where Interstate 45 intersects with Beltway 8, has given up about 2 feet in the last decade alone, according to USGS data.

"When you lose that much, it makes an area prone to floods when they weren't historically," said Mark Kasmarek, a hydrogeologist for more than 30 years with the USGS.

There is little mystery to why this is happening: The developing region draws an excessive amount of groundwater to keep itself quenched. Over the last century, aquifers here have lost between 300 and 400 feet, leaving the land to collapse.
 
Houston sits in one of the nation's largest subsidence bowls, so-called because of the crater effect that happens when the ground caves.

A USGS map of Harris County shows the city's bowl containing many smaller bowls, some with 8- to 9-foot drops in elevation. Many of these areas are in places known to flood, like the Heights, Montrose, downtown and near the East End.

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/For-years-the-Houston-area-has-been-losing-ground-7951625.php (http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/For-years-the-Houston-area-has-been-losing-ground-7951625.php)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 27, 2017, 03:39:55 PM
Chilling and heartbreaking listening to the police and fire scanners from Harris County, Texas.  High water is preventing many rescue attempts by vehicle.  There is resignation and frustration in the voices of the responders.  They will need to bring out the boats, and helicopters at daybreak.
Have the emergency services access to amphibious vehicles ?

They have a finite supply of high water vehicles, and others are inbound from adjacent areas.  Coast Guard helicopters are conducting rooftop extractions.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2017, 03:41:05 PM
The Coast Guard to Houston:
"Stay calm, do not panic. Do not go into the attic. Mark the roof to be seen from the air.  Wave sheets, towels
https://mobile.twitter.com/ginger_zee/status/901791099798335489
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2017, 03:53:33 PM
Why Harvey isn't moving.

Edit, from an article posted on the 28th:
Harvey Is What Climate Change Looks Like
...Weather patterns are also getting “stuck” more often, boosting the chances that a storm like Harvey would stall out. Some scientists have linked this to melting Arctic sea ice, which reduces strength of the polar jet stream and weakens atmospheric steering currents that can otherwise dip down and kick a storm like Harvey on its way. To be sure, a storm like Harvey may have been possible in the absence of climate change, but there are many factors at play that almost assuredly made it more likely. ...
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/28/climate-change-hurricane-harvey-215547 (http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/28/climate-change-hurricane-harvey-215547)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on August 27, 2017, 04:17:15 PM
Here is a portion of the Houston subsidence map linked above ... self-inflicted since 1920 by decades of unsustainable  groundwater pumping (ditto here in AZ or over in CA though geologies differ). These are big numbers relative to river rise, approaching 12' extra water depth.

It's not news as USGS has been measuring Houston subsidence for the last 40 years.

In the Houston-Galveston region, land subsidence is caused by compaction of fine-grained aquifer sediments (silts and clays) below the land surface due to groundwater withdrawals. Removing water from fine-grained aquifer sediments compresses the aquifer leaving less pore space available to store water resulting in the lowering (sinking or settling) of the land-surface. Most compaction that occurs as a result of groundwater withdrawals is irreversible; even if groundwater levels rise, compacted sediments and the associated land-surface lowering would remain as-is.
 https://txpub.usgs.gov/houston_subsidence/home/ (https://txpub.usgs.gov/houston_subsidence/home/)

New Orleans subsidence differs as it includes pumping away surface recharge water in addition to subsurface water extraction, as explained here: https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=6513 (https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=6513)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Csnavywx on August 27, 2017, 04:25:43 PM
Total volume of rain over Houston has now surpassed Allison. Long way to go. New benchmarks are being set.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 27, 2017, 04:42:14 PM
In addition to the links posted by Sig and others, this is another consoidated place for info

https://www.reddit.com/live/zhon9xy85b55/ (https://www.reddit.com/live/zhon9xy85b55/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2017, 04:44:10 PM
Daylight reveals the extent of flooding in Houston #hurricane #harvey #Houston buffalobayoupark #flood #flooding #…
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901817071025086464
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on August 27, 2017, 05:04:37 PM
Just a perspective from CDC that provides context for loss of life in Harris County attributable to Hurricane Harvey (728 deaths per week baseline w/o storms).

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm)

Number of deaths: 2,626,418 people die in US per year
Death rate: 8237 deaths per 1,000,000 population per year

Number of deaths: 7191 people die in US per day
Death rate: 23 deaths per 1,000,000 population per day

Population of Harris County TX 4.538 million
Death rate in Harris County 104 deaths per day

Homicide in Houston 2016: 323 murders in 2016 or 6 per week
https://www.click2houston.com/news/investigates/houston-1-of-3-cities-driving-national-murder-rate-higher-report-says (https://www.click2houston.com/news/investigates/houston-1-of-3-cities-driving-national-murder-rate-higher-report-says)

Leading causes of death:

1.4% of whole US used to estimate Harris County

Heart disease: 9102 (25 per day)
Cancer: 8558
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 2227
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 2104
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 2015
Alzheimer’s disease: 1588
Diabetes: 1144
Influenza and Pneumonia: 819
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 717
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 635

Translation: top ten are obesity, poor diet, sedentary lifestyle, age-related causes, and otherwise self-inflicted.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2017, 05:58:57 PM
NWS: "This event is unprecedented & all impacts are unknown & beyond anything experienced. Follow orders from officials to ensure safety. #Harvey "
https://mobile.twitter.com/NWS/status/901832717070983169

"Quite honestly, I've never seen the NWS say something like this before."
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901835346295402496
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2017, 06:06:09 PM
Excerpt of Houston mayor’s 10am press conference, paraphrasing:

Reporter: Why didn't you give the order to evacuate?

Mayor: We didn't know where the storm was going. Evacuations have to be planned. You can't just put 2.3 Houstonians, or 6.5 million Harris County people, on the road.  Which communities would we evacuate?  ALL neighborhoods are flooding.  If you went to Austin, Austin is flooding.

——

 I note weather models were showing 48 inches of rain around the Houston area days ago….  Is “disbelieving” an excuse for not planning?  But he’s right:  even a multi-day attempted evacuation of millions of people would have been a nightmare, with huge numbers of people becoming trapped in their cars.
___

Edit: "People wondering why no evacuation order. This is largely why. Hurricane Rita 2005. Dozens died IN this traffic #Houston "
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/901927308247920641
Photo of stalled traffic from Hurricane Rita in 2005 at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2017, 06:14:04 PM
Harvey's forecast of 50" in five days is near the theoretical maximum rainfall event possible in U.S.
PMP = "Probable Maximum Precipitation"
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/901839161908379648

"To reiterate, if the forecast verifies this would rival an all-time U.S. storm total rainfall record. #houstonflood #Harvey "
https://mobile.twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/901837570660761601
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2017, 06:48:15 PM
"View of downtown Houston right now, from Instagram"
https://mobile.twitter.com/_cingraham/status/901838744751181824
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2017, 09:34:40 PM
NWS Houston:  Harvey's rainfall in Houston "has exceeded that of Tropical Storm Allison (2001) in almost half the time (2-3 vs 5 days)"

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2017, 09:48:50 PM
Latest models: meandering #Harvey to bring ADDITIONAL 20-30 inch to #Houston (total 50+). Genuinely horrifying scenario. #TXwx #Houstonflood
https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/901860268883329024
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2017, 10:00:25 PM
Houston's development boom, reduction of wetlands leave region flood prone #HurricaneHarvey #houfloods #Harvey2017
http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Houston-s-development-boom-and-reduction-of-8403838.php (http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Houston-s-development-boom-and-reduction-of-8403838.php) 

https://twitter.com/rachaelgleason/status/901466061224247298 (https://twitter.com/rachaelgleason/status/901466061224247298)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on August 27, 2017, 10:07:31 PM
Houston's development boom, reduction of wetlands leave region flood prone
Flooding comes as no surprise to Houston; it's been a steadily worsening problem for decades. Synopsis of June 2001 Allison and lessons not learned:

https://projects.propublica.org/graphics/harvey (https://projects.propublica.org/graphics/harvey)

https://projects.propublica.org/houston-cypress/ (https://projects.propublica.org/houston-cypress/) outspoken science denier: head of flood control district

Ongoing subsidence and impermeable soil development:

Subsidence occurs when groundwater levels decrease in unconsolidated confined aquifers. When the
potentiometric-surface declines, hydraulic pressure decreases, which creates a vertical load on the
skeletal matrix of the sediments in the aquifer and adjacent confining units. Most aquifers are
heterogeneous and contain an assortment of clay layers and sand layers. Clay layers are usually more
affected by decreasing water levels than sand layers. Sand layers are more transmissive and allow water
to pass through more easily. Clay layers have a low permeability and dewater more slowly than the sand
layers. When a load is applied, the individual grains of the clay layers realign themselves to be
perpendicular to the vertical force. This causes the clay layers to decrease in porosity, decrease in
groundwater storage capacity, and compact. The amount of vertical stress, the hydraulic conductivity of
the layers, and the thickness of the layers determine how much the layers compress. Approximately 90
percent of this compaction is permanent….

This study found that water management, including the creation of the Harris-Galveston Coastal
Subsidence District, has helped Harris County increase groundwater levels since 1973. Houston has
especially seen a large increase in water levels since 1973. However, this increase in groundwater levels
only slowed the rate of compaction. Additionally, the area of lowest water levels in Harris County has
shifted to be northwest of Houston and this area is experiencing a relatively large amount of
compaction. The maps created for 2011 show subsidence has increased across Harris County since 1973. http://www.ce.utexas.edu/prof/maidment/giswr2012/TermPaper/Tigges.pdf (http://www.ce.utexas.edu/prof/maidment/giswr2012/TermPaper/Tigges.pdf)
Videos of gushering storm sewer lines -- and reminders not to wade in murky water as manhole covers may be gone -- raises the question what is happening to civic infrastructure -- notably the storm water, sewage water, water treatment plant, and drinking water distribution systems -- and what will be involved in recovery.

The City of Houston Public Works and Engineering Department provides many of the basic services that affect the daily lives of everyone who lives and works in Houston. Primarily, the department is responsible for all the things we take for granted on a daily basis: the administration, planning, maintenance, construction management and technical engineering of the City's infrastructure.

This includes the production and distribution of over 146 billion gallons of water per year and the treatment of over 90 billion gallons per year of wastewater. That is enough to fill the Astrodome four times per day with fresh water and over twice per day with wastewater. It also includes the maintenance of the City's over 16,000 lane miles of streets, over 60,000 stormwater manholes, over 100,000 stormwater inlets, over 1,100,000 street name and traffic control signs, over 17,000 freeway and under bridge light fixtures, over 50,000 fire hydrants and traffic signals at over 2,450 intersections.
https://www.publicworks.houstontx.gov (https://www.publicworks.houstontx.gov)
http://verify.rebuildhouston.org/prod/mydrain.htm (http://verify.rebuildhouston.org/prod/mydrain.htm) impermeable surface map
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2017, 10:19:03 PM
First responders in boats steer through heavy flooding in Dickinson, Texas, to rescue people as #Harvey turned streets into rivers.
https://twitter.com/ABCWorldNews/status/901895179799588866
Short video clips at the link.

Dickinson I45 bridge where evacuees by the thousands continue to wait for transportation to shelters after rescue @KHOU @wfaachannel8
https://mobile.twitter.com/khou/status/901895691953459203
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on August 27, 2017, 10:51:35 PM
Here's classic federal flood management at FEMA -- maps that severely downplay the 100 and 500 year flood risks (thus allowing an insurance subsidy and so development). Note the substantial disconnect between actual homes that flooded and the risk map. (PS don't expect these maps to be updated after Harvey.)

https://projects.propublica.org/houston-cypress/ original maps
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: jai mitchell on August 27, 2017, 10:56:37 PM
Through sunday morning and forecast to Thursday  :'(
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2017, 11:48:27 PM
Mike Bettes, reporting for The Weather Channel from Dickinson, Texas:  The water is too high for trucks, now.  We need boats.

15 people rescued from flooded assisted living facility
Fifteen senior citizens were rescued from a Dickinson assisted living community, hours after a viral photo showing them sitting in waist-deep water went viral.  Dickinson emergency management coordinator David Popoff confirmed the rescue.
http://www.galvnews.com/news/free/article_e1ffff8e-435d-5c78-ab46-57d6bc7dc6a5.html (http://www.galvnews.com/news/free/article_e1ffff8e-435d-5c78-ab46-57d6bc7dc6a5.html)

Coast Guard flyover reveals stunning scope of Harvey flooding. Everything is underwater.
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/901920850647154689 (https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/901920850647154689)
Brief video at the link.

Edit:  for those who are worrying:  yes, the elder community's cats were rescued, too!
https://patch.com/texas/across-tx/s-o-s-photo-saves-hurricane-harvey-trapped-nursing-home-elderly (https://patch.com/texas/across-tx/s-o-s-photo-saves-hurricane-harvey-trapped-nursing-home-elderly)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 28, 2017, 12:16:29 AM
Hurricane Center now says #Harvey may drift back over Gulf, restrengthen slightly, & make 2nd landfall near Houston
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/27/catastrophic-flooding-underway-in-houston-as-harvey-lingers-over-texas/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/27/catastrophic-flooding-underway-in-houston-as-harvey-lingers-over-texas/)

https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/901927760700035072 (https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/901927760700035072)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: TerryM on August 28, 2017, 12:21:34 AM
Dr. Mann, with some connections.
https://www.facebook.com/MichaelMannScientist/posts/1515449771844553 (https://www.facebook.com/MichaelMannScientist/posts/1515449771844553)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 28, 2017, 12:23:18 AM
When Harvey leaves Texas, it will further impact Louisiana.

Life-threatening flooding may develop in the Lake Charles area overnight into tomorrow as heavy rain increases.
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/901927308247920641
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 28, 2017, 12:35:15 AM
The city of Dallas, Texas -- 250 miles from the Gulf coast -- has been asked by the State of Texas to open its Convention Center to host Gulf Coast evacuees.

City prepares Dallas Convention Center to take in evacuees
http://www.dallascitynews.net/city-prepares-dallas-convention-center-take-evacuees (http://www.dallascitynews.net/city-prepares-dallas-convention-center-take-evacuees)

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: jai mitchell on August 28, 2017, 12:49:42 AM
Coast Guard flyover reveals stunning scope of Harvey flooding. Everything is underwater.
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/901920850647154689 (https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/901920850647154689)
Brief video at the link.

Those levels are going to go up an additional 6-10 feet.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 28, 2017, 02:26:52 AM
Two-day rainfall around Houston is now near or above 20" nearly everywhere. Another 6-15" tonight, mostly to the north of the city.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901957320569061377
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 28, 2017, 02:46:31 AM
NWS WPC:  Flood threat spreading farther east in Louisiana. Stay vigilant. #Harvey
https://twitter.com/nwswpc/status/901936411548549121
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 28, 2017, 03:13:09 AM
No electricity, no sewerage, limited communications. First responders attempting to cap natural gas leaks.

City officials say it is not safe in Rockport, Texas, do not stay and do not return anytime soon
https://mobile.twitter.com/cnn/status/901948214512930819
Video clip at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 28, 2017, 03:23:01 AM
Southwest Airlines launches airlift to rescue stranded Houston customers
(CNN) Southwest Airlines has launched a humanitarian rescue mission to airlift more than 500 of its customers out of closed Houston Hobby Airport Sunday, according to airline and US government sources with knowledge of the operation.

The Southwest customers were stranded inside the airport when the FAA closed it earlier Sunday morning. All roads to and from the airport were also closed. It was unclear how many others were stuck at the airport.

The rescue mission underscores the severity of Hurricane Harvey's impact on the Houston area.

Five of the airline's stranded Boeing 737s are scheduled to fly out of the flooded airport Sunday evening back to Love Field in Dallas, according to one of the sources.
...
The airline received clearance from the Federal Aviation Administration to operate out of the closed airport, according to the two sources. Hobby Airport is expected to remain closed to all non-emergency air traffic until August 30 at the earliest, according to the FAA.

Without working airport lights at Hobby Airport, the Southwest aircraft are going to have to move quickly. ...

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/08/27/us/southwest-humanitarian-airlift-hobby-airport/index.html
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 28, 2017, 03:27:09 AM
BREAKING:  Lake Conroe exceeds full level. Controlled releases of water beginning. #khou11
https://mobile.twitter.com/khou/status/901681828574220288
Details at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 28, 2017, 03:46:57 AM
 Photos at the links.

THIS IS (WAS) HIGHWAY 59 at Elgin near downtown. It is NOW a river. We are on the overpass. It's mindblowing. #KHOU11
https://mobile.twitter.com/khou/status/901971070730764289

My friend and neighbor, Raul Ramos, sent me this stunning pic: This is I-45 near downtown Houston
https://mobile.twitter.com/mannynyt/status/901861834562691073

Avoid 288. Both directions are ... under 6-10 feet under water. #khou11
https://mobile.twitter.com/khou/status/901938226914570241
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 28, 2017, 05:57:59 AM
The news is getting grimmer out of Houston late this evening.  A very intense band went through and is pushing some of the larger bayous over the edge.  Calls for evacuation going out in addition to the planned water releases.  We likely awake to even worse imagery tomorrow.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Pmt111500 on August 28, 2017, 06:54:08 AM
Since republicans do not trust science of climate change, there could be a system that would limit the expenses in disaster relief in these situations. Too bad you can't shoot the storms increased by climate change, then Texas would likely to be safe with their natural murder rate. This is an entirely normal storm according to their elected politicians. Do not believe the images sent out (the chinese hoax continues)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 28, 2017, 12:50:34 PM
Chief Art Acevad posted a video of floodwaters from his car last night.  "This is a part of Houston that never floods."
https://twitter.com/ArtAcevedo/status/902000755669917696

Unbelievable Before & After of the flooding on Buffalo Bayou in #Houston from #Harvey. (Via streetreporter on Youtube)
https://twitter.com/ReaganMatt/status/901913118078640135
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 28, 2017, 12:53:50 PM
Radar loop from last night:
This is not what anyone wants to see. Up to 5" per hour rates now rotating into the Houston area. #houwx #Harvey
https://twitter.com/diabaticpv/status/901983471580712960

Harvey update, 10pm CDT:
NHC reiterates 50" storm-total rainfall fcst for parts of Texas including Houston, center to move back over Gulf.
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/902008906414661633

Key messages for #Harvey advisory 31
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902010095109677056


Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 28, 2017, 12:56:16 PM
According to this estimate, Hurricane Harvey is likely to become the costliest natural disaster in US history.
Initial conservative estimate of #Harvey $$ losses from Kevin M. Simmons, disaster economist at @AustinCollege, for @ProPublica:
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/901993792084992000 (https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/901993792084992000)

Edit:
Trying to keep politics out of this thread, but can't ignore this:
Mexico offers to help Harvey-soaked Texas
https://www.dallasnews.com/news/weather/2017/08/27/mexico-offers-help-harvey-soaked-texas (https://www.dallasnews.com/news/weather/2017/08/27/mexico-offers-help-harvey-soaked-texas)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Agric on August 28, 2017, 01:52:39 PM
An analysis published March 2016 detailing the failure of Houston to prepare for this someday inevitable event, and its probable consequences locally and for the US economy:

https://www.propublica.org/article/hell-and-high-water-text (https://www.propublica.org/article/hell-and-high-water-text)

Harvey is already a catastrophic event, I hope it doesn't get much worse. Current forecasts don't seem to suggest significant probability of it intensifying and wandering far enough east to bring a dangerous amount of rain to New Orleans, I'm not sure what their present ability to cope would be if it did.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on August 28, 2017, 02:46:52 PM
Harvey is already a catastrophic event, I hope it doesn't get much worse. Current forecasts don't seem to suggest significant probability of it intensifying and wandering far enough east to bring a dangerous amount of rain to New Orleans, I'm not sure what their present ability to cope would be if it did.
New Orleans? I am not so sure - see latest NHC image below. Each time I look it gets worse for New Orleans.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Agric on August 28, 2017, 03:02:17 PM
Yes, forecasts for NOLA rainfall through Friday have been worsening over last day but still remain 5 to 10", should not be dangerous. If Harvey drifted further east by not too much, especially if it remains over water for longer than expected, then things could get nasty for NOLA. There are about 5 million people in Houston wishing it in NOLA's direction  :-\
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 28, 2017, 03:16:29 PM
The 0z Euro has the second landfall the farthest east of any of its model runs, right along the TX/LA border on Wednesday.  While the synoptics have suggested no significant strengthening, the Euro also takes it farther offshore with more time over water than previous runs.  If these are trends and they continue, NOLA would certainly be in range for even more precip and impacts.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 28, 2017, 04:52:22 PM
The 12z NAM 3k shows a scenario that keeps Harvey right offshore on top of Houston instead of the eastward drift.  Centers the precip maxima of 13-18 inches through Wednesday right in and around Harris County, so it's a bad solution for Houston.  Not sure how the NAM handles tropical system data, so the Euro may be better resolved.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 28, 2017, 05:53:49 PM
The 12z GFS op follows position output seen in the NAM, and brings Harvey back ashore at 995mb with TS winds right up Gavelston Bay.  Max precip of up to 20 inches through 72 hours again centered in Houston metro.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: TerryM on August 28, 2017, 06:10:08 PM
Thanx for the updates!
Last I've heard was 39.7 inches - so far.
Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 28, 2017, 06:47:46 PM
Latest NHC track.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 28, 2017, 06:50:42 PM
Storm-total rainfall from #Harvey now approaching 40" in the Houston area, per @NWSWPC. Up to 20" more still on the way. Unimaginable.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902202368820838400

#Harvey has brought so much rainfall that @NWS had to update the colour charts on its graphics in order to effectively map it.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902197514803134464
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 28, 2017, 06:55:01 PM
Update on the rainfall threat from Tropical Storm #Harvey
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902207394062544896


The entire Texas Nat'l Guard was just activated for #Harvey storm assistance.
#Breaking Gov @GregAbbott_TX has activated all of the Texas National Guard. About 12,000 ready to help in #Harvey flooding
https://twitter.com/OmarVillafranca/status/902198939084099585
Text of the request at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 28, 2017, 06:59:55 PM
Latest high-res NAM (12Z) model shows 12-20" for the Houston area, but 10-15" for New Orleans. That's really frightening w/ inop pump system
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902199139173142528 (https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902199139173142528)

Before Harvey, city of New Orleans said a forecast of ~12" in 24hrs might require evacuating the city. That forecast is arguably here, now.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902199433906888704 (https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902199433906888704)

New Orleans is now in a flash flood watch. 5-10" of rainfall, "with locally higher amounts possible".
Decision time, @MayorLandrieu.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902205225737400320 (https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902205225737400320)

Backup Plans
http://grist.org/briefly/new-orleans-is-now-planning-to-evacuate-the-city-if-a-heavy-rainstorm-comes/ (http://grist.org/briefly/new-orleans-is-now-planning-to-evacuate-the-city-if-a-heavy-rainstorm-comes/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 28, 2017, 07:47:53 PM
"Evacuation plans are predicated on storm surge, not rainfall flooding. Rain evacuations difficult to impossible due to forecast limitations."
https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/902000726129471489 (https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/902000726129471489)

"This is one reason why Houston didn't evacuate...they've tried that, and the costs were enormous."

Context from Hurricane Rita in 2005 for decision not to evacuate:

Exodus weighs heavily in death toll of 107
http://www.chron.com/news/houston-weather/hurricanes/article/Exodus-weighs-heavily-in-death-toll-107-1502590.php (http://www.chron.com/news/houston-weather/hurricanes/article/Exodus-weighs-heavily-in-death-toll-107-1502590.php)

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 28, 2017, 07:59:37 PM
Houston-area (but not Houston itself) evacuations are ordered near the Brazos River.  Water may overtop levees.

List: Evacuation orders for Fort Bend Co. neighborhoods within levees
FORT BEND COUNTY, Texas - The Fort Bend County Office of Emergency Management released a list of mandatory and voluntary evacuations orders for neighborhoods near the Brazos River.

Many communities protected by Levee Improvement Districts (L.I.D.'s) may experience high water as levees could overtop, leading to failure in areas that have never flooded.

These are places where residents have never had to evacuate before and are now having to leave their homes.

After the water rises, depending on the water levels, residents may not be able to get in or out for two to three weeks as roads become inundated to depths which may surpass the capability of even the biggest pickup and semi trucks.

Emergency services will no longer be able to respond to emergencies in these flood zones. Residents who choose to stay make be cut off from local grocery stores for weeks, so they should make sure to have food available.

Those in single story homes must leave as the waters may rise higher than the roof line in some neighborhoods. ...
http://www.khou.com/amp/news/list-evacuation-orders-for-fort-bend-co-neighborhoods-within-levees/468540701 (http://www.khou.com/amp/news/list-evacuation-orders-for-fort-bend-co-neighborhoods-within-levees/468540701)


Edit for the sake of pets:
TERRY HIGH SCHOOL IS ACCEPTING CRATED PETS, PLEASE BRING FOOD/MEDICATIONS
https://mobile.twitter.com/khou/status/902222909023846400 (https://mobile.twitter.com/khou/status/902222909023846400)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 28, 2017, 08:10:20 PM
12z Euro holds on to the western LA landfall, so more precip across to NOLA and an onshore fetch.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 28, 2017, 08:15:28 PM
SciAm & Jeff Masters provide an interesting article about Harvey & climate change:

Title: "Hurricane Harvey: Why Is It So Extreme?

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/hurricane-harvey-why-is-it-so-extreme/ (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/hurricane-harvey-why-is-it-so-extreme/)

Extract: "How did the storm rapidly blow up from Category 1 to 4, why is it so stuck over Houston, how can it possibly produce so much rain?

Hurricane Harvey is drowning southeastern Texas for the fourth day, putting a vast area under feet of water. Experts say Harvey has been stuck longer in one place than any tropical storm in memory. That is just one of the hurricane’s extremes; the storm is off the charts by many measures. Scientific American wanted to learn why, and we asked meteorologist Jeff Masters for help."

See also:

http://www.salon.com/2017/08/28/hurricane-harvey-why-is-it-so-extreme_partner/ (http://www.salon.com/2017/08/28/hurricane-harvey-why-is-it-so-extreme_partner/)

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on August 28, 2017, 08:30:59 PM
A better way of quantitatively following the situation (than radar-estimated rainfall) are USGS river gauges used by the Army Corps of Engineers to measure cubic feet per sec discharge of Buffalo Bayou as well as its height at multiple points downstream from the two 1940's reservoirs. These are updated online every 15 minutes or so. Some sites like Katy have real-time rain gauges (bottom).

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?site_no=08073700 (https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?site_no=08073700) Piney Pt gauge

This morning, the Corps began releasing another 8,000 cfs from behind the dams. This is a substantial amount of water, about 1.3% of the Mississippi River discharge of 593,000 cfs.

While the water level no doubt has gotten too high in the reservoirs, it's known it can safely work its way through adjacent neighborhoods and eventually find its way into Buffalo Bayou. However that would flood adjacent (pricier?) homes.

So they decided instead on a floodgate release, saying they know this will flood additional homes directly downstream. While these homeowners, especially the uninsured, will probably squawk later -- dozens of posted drone overflights show flooded streets but dry driveways and homes -- the Corps is arguing the workaround water would have flooded them later anyway.

That's debatable of course because much slower flow of workaround water could very well result in peak shaving, as the Corps well knows. However if heavy rain continues, it is six of one versus a half dozen of the other.

They seem not to have posted the exact time of floodgate opening but a surge is seen at the gauge directly below the Addicks Reservoir in the right time frame. This raised Buffalo Bayou water levels by 2.5' which could administer the coup de grâce for many homes which had been squeaking by so far. However this water will spread out farther downstream and the effect at lower gauging stations will be less pronounced than 24' above flood stage (red line, 2nd image).

Jeff Masters just posted maps and an excellent review of Addicks and Barker reservoir options and operations that complements news about the shaky earthen dams in a local newspaper:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/harvey-moves-back-over-water-historic-rainfall-will-continue (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/harvey-moves-back-over-water-historic-rainfall-will-continue)

http://www.houstonpress.com/news/how-addicks-and-barker-reservoirs-are-handling-tropical-storm-harvey-9740819 (http://www.houstonpress.com/news/how-addicks-and-barker-reservoirs-are-handling-tropical-storm-harvey-9740819)

http://www.houstonpress.com/news/if-the-addicks-and-barker-dams-fail-6594886 (http://www.houstonpress.com/news/if-the-addicks-and-barker-dams-fail-6594886)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 28, 2017, 08:35:31 PM
Good to see Houston addressing circumstances that may keep flood victims from evacuating or accepting help:

UPDATE regarding George R. Brown [Convention Center] shelter: Hall "A" in the GRB has been designated for evacuees with pets...
https://twitter.com/BARC_Houston/status/902195338014056448

"If someone tries to deport you, I will represent you myself." Mayor @SylvesterTurner
Seek help regardless of your status
#ABC13 #Hounews
https://mobile.twitter.com/abc13antonio/status/902209173231984641
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on August 28, 2017, 09:12:38 PM
Here is by far the best live-streaming, news aggregating Harvey site I have come across. Normally the WSJ is blocked but if you come in from the side, it is not. Far too many stories, tweets and youtubes elsewhere have either no time stamps or faked time stamps that update to fool google search with old news.

http://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/hurricane-harvey-live-coverage (http://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/hurricane-harvey-live-coverage)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: WadeDanielSmith on August 28, 2017, 09:35:13 PM
Has anyone here ever seen a Vertical Integrated Liquid reading as high as what Harvey has been consistently holding for 3 days now?

210kg/m^2 at landfall.
245kg/m^2 yesterday.
195kg/m^2 today.

I've never seen this, and I've watched hundreds and hundreds of tropical cyclones in my life. Maybe someone else has seen stronger numbers on radar before?


Unfortunately, it looks like we are about to go "Hyper-Active" for the Atlantic season.

With September and October being the months which usually have the highest thermodynamic potential...
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 28, 2017, 10:26:21 PM
West of Harvey:  extreme heat. 
East of Harvey:  potential tropical cyclone just off the east coast of the U.S.

NWS: Away from the Gulf Coast, record heat returns to the West this week while a potential tropical cyclone skirts the Eastern Seaboard.
https://mobile.twitter.com/nws/status/902263895548669953
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: WadeDanielSmith on August 29, 2017, 01:00:12 AM
Oh yeah, another weird, but not unprecedented thing about Harvey is that it made category 4 without ever really building a deck of -70C or colder cloud tops.

Usually, Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes build to -80C, -90C, sometimes even -100C cloud tops at peak intensity, then they level back off to -60C cloud tops and hold there for a while.

Harvey basically never had more than a few spotty clouds at -70C level.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 29, 2017, 01:07:30 AM
Reviewing the Houston mayor’s tweets.  Not only did he not call for an evacuation, he actually recommended against it.  And downplayed the various forecasts of 30-50 inches of rainfall circulating on social media for one that says 15-25 inches.  For better or for worse, it seems clear he did NOT want any kind of mass evacuation.


Ignore unfounded, unsourced weather predictions that have needlessly frightened Houstonians. Get info from trusted outlets. @HoustonOEM
https://twitter.com/sylvesterturner/status/900847875952967680

I believe the mayor's tweet was referring to this "unsourced weather prediction" that was floating around social media a few days ago.
https://twitter.com/cara1o1/status/901833247004409857

Please think twice before trying to leave Houston en masse. No evacuation orders have been issued for the city. #Harvey
https://twitter.com/sylvesterturner/status/901154698316722176

No contra flow lanes or outbound shuttles from Houston for a reason -- only smaller coastal areas under evacuation orders.
https://twitter.com/sylvesterturner/status/901155299075264512
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 29, 2017, 02:02:47 AM
Huge Exxon oil refinery damaged by heavy rain from Harvey
An ExxonMobil oil refinery near Houston was damaged by the remnants of Hurricane Harvey, and the company says chemicals could be released into the air.

Exxon (XOM) said a roof at the facility in Baytown "partially sank" because of heavy rain.

A report filed with Texas environmental regulators said Exxon expects air emissions linked to the damage will end by Friday at the facility. Exxon shut down the refining and chemical complex and said it was taking action to "minimize emissions."

Exxon declined to give details about the extent of the damage other than to say it plans to assess the full impact "once it is safe to do so." ...
http://money.cnn.com/2017/08/28/news/companies/exxon-refinery-baytown-harvey-damage/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2017/08/28/news/companies/exxon-refinery-baytown-harvey-damage/index.html)


Per City of Shoreacres: Chemical release notice. Shelter in place. Stay inside. Close windows/doors. Turn off  air conditioning/ventilation.
https://twitter.com/readyharris/status/902292342933258240 (https://twitter.com/readyharris/status/902292342933258240)

Shoreacres is about 8 miles from Baytown -- and 10 miles from Dickinson, site of some of the worst flooding -- but has its own refinery....
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: WadeDanielSmith on August 29, 2017, 02:34:18 AM
Can somebody tell this idiot on Jeff Masters' site that AGW is NOT the primary contributor to Harvey?

This is SLIGHLY AGW enhanced, but in all honestly, only slightly, around 10%, possibly even less. We won't know until some statistical models and deterministic models are run, but this is more about a perfect ENSO Neutral year and a perfect Gulf Loop Eddy and a perfect no shear atmosphere.

My GOD, you cannot blame a BARE MINIMUM category 4 Hurricane on "Global Warming" every time it forms, because that's been happening for the past several hundred years anyway; actually for Billions of years, but that's beside the point.

The rainfall is roughly 10% AGW enhanced.

The Wind's speed, and therefore Angular Momentum and Linear Momentum was just barely HALF the thermodynamic maximum...only around 10% of which is AGW related, you can't seriously be blaming this on AGW...and certainly not as the primary cause.

The part of the Gulf that Harvey passed over during "Explosive Intensification" was 4C above normal, and no more than about 0.5C of that was AGW related. The other 3.5C of it came from natural ENSO variation plus natural Loop Eddy variation. Literally, even Dr. Jeff Masters, Mr. Global Warming Alarmist that he is, said so.

If we took 10% off the flooding, it still broke the previous record. Hell, if we took 20% off the flooding, it still broke the previous record, and quite obviously there is no way AGW has gotten bad enough to explain as much as 20% of this, not yet anyway. I tmight get that bad 100 years from now, but it's not that strong of an amplification yet.

Lying about it and exaggerating, such as making bad computer models that double the effect, such as how Michael Mann did, all of that bad science and fake news only fuels total deniers more.

Let's be serious, about 100 to 200 years from now, the effect gets very bad, I get that, I even can prove that.

However, these people can't seriously be doing this every time a record gets broken.

Basic statistics:

It takes 144 years of data in order to have a 95% confidence that you have actually seen one "One in One hundred years" event. We only have 137 years of modern, reliable data, so we have less than 95% confidence that our definition of a "100 years flood" is even correct for any given location. In a few cases, you can use proxy data, such as dead forest tree ring data, to gauge the statistical likelihood of a flood, but seriously, most of this is "fake news" alarmism, not real science.

Okay, 100 to 200 years, AGW gets out of hand.

Right now, it can't be blamed for everything that happens on the planet.

We have 10,000 weather stations in the U.S. This means in an average year, we are SUPPOSED to see approximately 10 one-thousand years floods "somewhere" in the U.S., and we are SUPPOSED to see approximately 10 one-thousand years droughts "somewhere" in the U.S. on average, every year.

To be honest with you, we're actually having fewer climate disasters lately than we are "supposed" to be having...12 years without a category 3 landfall, but in the 1980's, 1990's, and early 2000's they happened all the time...before AGW was really even measurable...

Please, seriously, they distract from the real science when they try to blame eveyrthing on AGW, even though a lot of this is honest to God normal ENSO variability....for example, what do you blame Amelia, the previous record holder, since it dumped 48 inches long before AGW had even begun to effect SST or Sea Ice?

Labor Day 1935 (185mph) was too early to be an AGW event, obviously, but is the strongest Western Hemisphere Landfall. Thanks to Super-Typhoon Haiyan (195mph in the Phillipines), Labor Day 1935 is now the second strongest global landfall officially. Unofficially, Cyclone Monica (Australia) may be the strongest landfall globally.

Camille has been downgraded from a 190mph landfall to a 160mph landfall, because it's been discovered from physical evidence and computer modeling that there is no way it was a 190mph sustained storm at landfall. Long before AGW was large enough to matter.

Andrew is now the second strongest U.S. landfall on record at 165mph, but that was in 1992, before AGW became large enough to even effect Sea Ice.

It's actually been an abnormally long time since a "theoretical maximum" hurricane hit the U.S. I hate to say that, but it happens to be true.


Since they downgraded Audrey to a Category 3, this means it has been over 160 years since the last time Louisiana experienced a Category 4 landfall, which was the "Last Island Hurricane," which I can assure you was way, way more devastating than Hurricane Harvey.

The previous Category 4 Hurricane before Last Island to hit Louisiana was during the War of 1812, which was documented by the BRITISH fleet commander, because he was horrified by it and actually offered assistance to the U.S. civilians in New Orleans when he saw how bad it was there.

Believe it or not, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes apparently don't hit the U.S. as often today as they did 100 to 200 years or so ago.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: WadeDanielSmith on August 29, 2017, 02:46:25 AM
Most deadly U.S. hurricanes, in order:
Galveston: Category 3. over 8000, but believed to be as many as 12000 deaths.
"Forgotten Hurricane", Lake Okachobee, Florida: Category 4. over 4000, but unknown.
New Orleans, War of 1812 Hurricane, Category 4. Over 3000 deaths, possibly 4000.
Last Island Hurricane, near "Last Island" resort, Category 4. Several thousand deaths, unknown.
Katrina, New Orleans, Category 3 (with Category 5 Surge). A bit over 1800 deaths.


If you adjust for inflation, Galveston is probably still the most financially destructive hurricane too.


Let me point this out, almost forgot this detail.

Three of the worst U.S. hurricanes on record were actually "Global Cooling" era hurricanes.

New Orleans war of 1812 hurricane is in the worst 10 years period of the Little Ice Age.
Last Island Hurricane is 1850, and is a Little Ice Age hurricane.
Galveston is in the middle of a Volcanic Winter caused by Krakatoa, which lasted about another 15 years after this. In fact, the NEXT bad Galveston Hurricane was also in a Volcanic Winter year caused by Krakatoa*.

* I know this, because two of the three worst U.S. FREEZE events happened in the 1910's, because the planet still hadn't recovered from Krakatoa. In these two events, New York Harbor froze over again, and the Mississippi froze over all the way down to the mouth. For reference, the SMALL rivers in Louisiana where I live have never had ice floating on them in my lifetime. So I know that was Volcanic Winter induced.

Most of these "most destructive/deadly" hurricanes are way, way before AGW mattered.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: WadeDanielSmith on August 29, 2017, 03:29:07 AM
A few years ago, on either the Weather Channel or the Science Channel, I forget which, there was a documentary where scientists were trying to use a new technique to gauge the category intensity level of pre-modern record hurricanes. The way it works is this:

Stronger hurricanes lift more heavy Hydrogen (Deuterium) and Heavy Oxygen (17/18 vs 16) than do normal low pressure systems.

Tree ring data can be used to discover the isotopic ratio of light Oxygen to "Heavy Oxygen". Using the Oxygen ratios is more reliable than the Deuterium ratios because cells have enzymes which remove most Deuterium atoms, because the gravitational mass of the extra neutron interferes with the shape of the Covalent Bonds and Hydrogen Bonds of the Hydrogen atom in amino acid formation and protein folding. Since plants naturally "select out" Deuterium, but don't "select out" heavy Oxygen, this makes the heavy Oxygen a more reliable marker in the cell structure of the plant. So then by comparing the isotopic ratio of Oxygen 18 to Oxygen 16, you can approximate the Category level of a Hurricane...


When I first saw this, it blew my mind. I was like, "That is GENIUS!"


Sooo...why don't we put a mass spectrometer in space, or several of them, and map the Deuterium distribution and the Heavy Oxygen distribution, the same way we do for visible and infrared satellite and morphed microwave imagery and radar? With this tool, we might be able to better identify "known unknown" trends, such as eye wall replacement cycles. This might also provide a better way to measure VIL, as Radar measured VIL can be contaminated from looking through too many layers or too large a distance. This could also be used in combination with the Advanced Dvorak Technique to improve margin of error in surface pressure and surface winds calculations, at least in principle, with enough computing power and a good 5 to 10 years human experience interpreting the data...


The way I would do this tool is this:

Take unenhanced Visible Satellite imagery as the baseline, and have 3 colors for "Heavy" Isotopes, which would overlay over it. At night time you'd use Shortwave Infrared as the baseline.

black/white is "Light Water" clouds.
Green would be Deuterium enriched clouds.
Blue would be Oxygen 17 enriched clouds.
Red would be Oxygen 18 enriched clouds.
Purple: Molecule has two or more heavy isotopes in a single molecule (i.e. 2D2O18).

So it would work like "color enhanced infrared" except it would color the isotopes instead of the temperatures of the clouds.

This idea is not too far-fetched. We are already using Quantum Theory to try to help gauge the intensity of Hurricanes. The Lightning data tools use EM radiation and even Gamma Radiation released by Lightning to try to track the number and intensity of Lightning strikes in thunderstorms in the eye wall. If the lightning strikes are increasing and building higher, then it is theoretically supposed to mean that the storm is growing stronger. The strongest lightning strikes produce Gamma Radiation via Positron Emission and annihilation in microscopic amounts.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 29, 2017, 03:38:15 AM
Widespread 30+ across Harris County

https://mobile.twitter.com/RaleighWx
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: WadeDanielSmith on August 29, 2017, 03:44:51 AM
Yes, the Radars are probably over-estimating the rainfall slightly, however, I suspect some areas on the South East side of Houston may have gotten more rain than we can record....the fresh water flooding rose so high that any professional or hobbyist gauges in the area may have been compromised anyway.

I know there were some amateurs who had a few inches higher than any official gauges earlier. I don't know how reliable they are though.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: WadeDanielSmith on August 29, 2017, 04:14:45 AM
Every Hurricane has a "Curve Ball" moment.

If you watch a few hundred Tropical Cyclones, you learn that.

No matter how good you get at understanding and even forecasting these things, there's always something more to learn.

We all knew this was going to be at least a 3 day stall/near stall scenario before it even came off the Yucatan Peninsula. What we didn't realize is there was literally going to be zero shear through the original landfall, and we also didn't realize this was going to be packing statistically insane precipable water levels non-stop through its entire existence. That is the curve ball. The stall was predictable. The insane radar VIL levels correlating to real-world flooding is the other talking point besides the stall itself. This one I don't quite understand, even with the absurdly hot Gulf.

Dr. Navarro on TWC tried to explain that in this case the Dry Air was paradoxically enhancing today's rainfall, which blew my mind too. Never heard a PhD claim that dry Air was actually enhancing a TC's overall liquidity! She said that it was somehow enhancing outflow, which improved lift. Well, she's a smart lady, so I'll assume she's right, even though it seems a bit weird of an explanation.

The VIL levels need some scientific modeling and further analysis, because that's the second talking point contributing to the amount of flooding we've seen with Harvey. The Gulf being 4f above average for August only explains about 40% of the VIL rating, which means it would still be higher than an EF5 tornado, for three consecutive days, which is still abnormal even for a Tropical Cyclone.


The biggest gaps in our understanding of Hurricane forecasts, both at the professional level and amateur level, are correct rainfall forecasts and correct interpretation of "eye wall replacement cycles".

Last year, Carl Parker nailed one and beat me.
This year, he over-played what LOOKED like a similar scenario to  him.

Good meteorologist, not picking on him.

At issue here, there was a difference, which for whatever reason at the time, he was distracted and didn't notice it enough. So he interprets the scenario as a weakening phase, and assumes the storm will be 120mph at landfall. I point out that the pressure was still in RI mode (near explosive Intensification mode almost,) and that the apparent eye wall replacement cycle didn't seem to matter much. So I'm like, "No, not this time. You beat me last year, but this time I know I'm right. It's going to 130mph, and double eye walls is only worse for landfall, not better: it means you have Hurricane force winds over twice as big of an area..."

THIS is not guess work. This is very, very hard to call, and sometimes I blow this very badly, and sometimes I nail it. It's just very hard to gauge this.

so I'm like, "what other metrics in physics can we measure to help gauge a hurricane's intensity or rainfall potential?"

Well, here are a few, and there aren't many to be sure...

Mass Spectrometry idea. Requires 5 to 10 years of experienced interpretation and further assisted super-computer modeling...

"Brute Force" Sampling: Double the number of buoys and weather stations, more "resolution" on sampling. Theoretically, this would reduce the number of errors in computer model initializations...very slightly. I have examples of how this can improve the initialization by as much as 1mb to 3mb of pressure, maybe even more, in some cases. There are classic examples of meteorologists "correcting" the bad initialization of the computer models output via a "Kentucky Windage" approach, upon realizing it is a bad initialization, by simply adding or subtracting the difference back to the predicted value. In the future, we would hopefully have a slightly more scientific approach to this problem.

Add more space-based polar orbit Radars on 45 degree orbital plane offsets, means more "direct hits" on fly-bys, more "resolution" on steering and sampling. This is most relevant to the 4 and 5 day forecast, which is usually outside of land-based radar range. This can theoretically get "less contaminated" VIL readings too...with 4 of these orbiters, instead of just 1, we'd be 4 times as likely to get one good direct hit per 6 hour modeling period...AND we'd simultaneously get good sampling of the entire Globe every 6 hour modeling period anyway. We'd never be able to take a 7 day Hurricane forecast seriously without more 3d space radars.

There is actually not much scientific benefit to improving the precision of most of the instruments by another decimal. I.E. 1/100th of 1mb of pressure doesn't matter much. 1/100th of a knot wind speed doesn't matter much. 1/100th of a percent humidity doesn't matter much. 1/1000th of a degree F doesn't matter much for air or water temperature. In fact, the "Resolution" approach actually makes a larger improvement in "Precision" than does the "Precision" approach itself.


Not sure what else is scientifically "Measurable" and "Quantifiable" about Hurricanes, but if anybody has any ideas I've overlooked, I'd like to hear them.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: WadeDanielSmith on August 29, 2017, 04:24:29 AM
Beaumont was one of the less-mentioned areas which was getting hit very hard by the rains earlier. Right now they are in a slight lull, but they may get back into heavy rainfall action in a few more hours.

I'm not quite sure why nobody has mentioned this area very much on television, even though they actually have some of the highest confirmed rainfall totals.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 29, 2017, 04:27:28 AM
Confirmation of a 36 hour rainfall record from AGW enhanced Harvey.

Per state climatologist: Gage at Clear Crk and I-45 recorded the greatest 3-day rainfall in the US of 36.80 inches

https://mobile.twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/902346229513900032
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 29, 2017, 04:40:25 AM
Houston has been under moderate rain much of the day.  There is currently a very intense band SE of the city that looks to be 3+ inches per hour.  With the larger reservoirs and bayous surpassing critical levels, this could create additional hazards overnight if the band manages to lift NW.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: miki on August 29, 2017, 05:02:28 AM
WDS, I think a good start could be Paul Beckwith. A climatologist with a good way of explaining things clear. A link to his tutorial on Harvey.

https://paulbeckwith.net/2017/08/27/epic-tutorial-on-horrific-hurricane-harvey/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: WadeDanielSmith on August 29, 2017, 05:05:57 AM
I believe the post-season analysis with super-computer assistance, will be able to pick out how much of it is AGW enhancement. Expect some sort of "Best fit" value, with a margin of error value from NHC or else from a University professor most likely. It might ultimately take a few years before the best research on this is complete.


I'm really concerned for the Thermodynamic Potential situation in the Atlantic, as we call these things "September Storms" for a reason. Still, October in a rigged Neutral ENSO year like this is scary too.

The European model claims there's going to be at least a Category 2 storm perhaps passing by the north side of the Antilles later this week. Hard to say what the second half of the track would be this early. Hopefully it's a fish storm, but nobody take your eyes off it for very long. This model has become by far the most reliable. Not sure how often they update this thing, but right now it's kicking the GFS model's tail lately.

Seeing as how Harvey went from TD to Category 4 after hitting a T8 Thermodynamic Potential Predictor zone...I'd hate to see an already developed storm pass into that T8 predictor off the coast of Florida and Georgia, for example....that would be Andrew 2.0 for sure, and we don't need that. Hopefully, mercifully no.

There are T8 (or T9 off the scale!) Predictors in the following locations.

Florida Bend area, Gulf of Mexico: Slightly AGW enhanced. Perfect natural cycle enhancement.
Bay of Campeche, Gulf of Mexico: Slightly AGW enhanced. Perfect natural cycle enhancement.
Main Development Region: Slightly AGW enhanced. Near-Perfect natural cycle enhancement.
Florida/Georgia east coast: Slightly AGW enhancement. Present day sheared. Still T8 Predictor.

EE Pacific: Slightly above normal enhancement, not as far out of normal as the Gulf of Mexico though.

Caribbean: Slight AGW enhancement. Unfavorable natural conditions FOR THE MOMENT ONLY. October will be INSANE down hear, most likely.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 29, 2017, 05:19:23 AM
The paragraphs in the snip below feel like a template for what we will all too frequently see in the not too distant future.  In fact the future is upon us.  Beyond comprehension and beyond our collective ability to control or mitigate.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/28/us/houston-flooding-harvey.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/28/us/houston-flooding-harvey.html)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: WadeDanielSmith on August 29, 2017, 05:48:59 AM
I knew this was going to approach Mitch and Wilma (Cancun) level rainfalls when I first saw it emerge into the BoC. The first three days of the track scenario were pretty obvious, glance at the satellite and read it blind. The next two not as obvious.

So I looked at the GFS model and I was like, "yeah, that's about right, this is going to be bad...OMG, that stall is too long, OMG, OMG that's way too long."

Yet, to actually see the water values unfold on our modern radars, which we didn't actually get to see for Wilma at Cancun nor Mitch at Honduras, this was very much ridiculous rain levels.

Normally, the Jet stream kicks something out after at most 2 or 3 days in U.S. even in stall/near-stall scenarios. This one just got completely out of hand.


Oh yes, I agree with a point in that tutorial video about the steering.
The thermal blanketing effect of Global Warming can produce poor north/south steering, allowing persistent westward tracks and stalls from the MDR, Caribbean, and Gulf, instead of recurve tracks.

There is another problem:
When AGW gets bad enough, which it is already approaching this threshold, a second "MDR" will emerge in the Atlantic: Pop-up hurricanes can now form off the Florida-Georgia-Carolina coast, like this not so developed low over there right now. Eventually, when AGW gets bad enough, these will start getting strong enough to survive the track across the North Atlantic, over the Bermuda High, and will begin making landfalls in Western Europe. We had a close call in 2005, and another one a few years ago, but it's a matter of time now.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: WadeDanielSmith on August 29, 2017, 06:06:45 AM
I give up.

That was incredible.

The NAM computer model just spit out a result so bad it's insane. This model says parts of Houston are still going to get ANOTHER 20 to 30 inches of rain over the next 2 days or so....even with the storm broken up like this.

The GFS is on board with it, and I guess the European won't be too much different.

So sad. Worst thing since Mitch in the Atlantic Basin.

Just obscene, and they are already been releasing water from the reservoirs to try to avoid a dam failure. I don't know what to say. This is likely about to go from awful to worse. We might not have seen the whole death toll from this just yet either, probably about to rise some more.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: wili on August 29, 2017, 06:10:23 AM
Barker and Addicks seem to already be releasing water down their spillways. Let's hope these old, badly maintained dams hold up under this extreme situation. The heart of Houston sits below them.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: WadeDanielSmith on August 29, 2017, 06:23:08 AM
Oh yeah, AGW effects on the Atlantic Coast are harder to understand, because steering features evolve more rapidly up there than in the Gulf or Caribbean regions.

There is a region of the Atlantic near New England and Newfoundland which gets a ridiculous hot spot forming in recent years, compared to the 30 year average, and this has gotten so far out of normal on some years that it can support storms a full category or two higher than the 30 years normal would have supported, at least assuming the environment allows it. This is effected Super Storm Sandy, and it also effected the Wilma Nor' Easter formation. Wow, Wilma seems to have done some of everything...perhaps the trend in steering somehow favors October Caribbean storms moving into or near New England? Let's not forget, October Category 5 Matthew tried this last year, but didn't quite get that sort of "turning in" steering at the end of the track as did Wilma and Sandy....else we'd have had another New York "Super Storm".
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 29, 2017, 06:24:32 AM
The 0z GFS is simply a solution that would amplify the Houston catastrophe beyond measure.  It's getting hard to find the proper words at this point.  The system meanders erratically just offshore and comes up Gavelston Bay Tuesday evening with the precip maxima again across Harris County and Houston metro, 20-30 inches on top of current totals.  The onshore fetch would add to the problems.

This really feels like a knock out blow if it comes to pass.  The Euro has been showing a farther east solution which would alleviate some pressure on Houston, the next run will come out in a few hours.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: WadeDanielSmith on August 29, 2017, 06:41:33 AM
This is in a bad case. From what I understand, the Army Corps is basically soft-speaking around the fact that the dams are probably going to experience partial failure by mid-morning tomorrow, especially if this rain keeps up.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: WadeDanielSmith on August 29, 2017, 06:44:41 AM
At least the storm can't build a CDO again, I hope, but a massive amount of very tall convection just exploded over Houston in the past few hours. -60C cloud tops are returning to the region again.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 29, 2017, 07:05:37 AM
Sickening to watch in real time.  The very intense rates are rotating in to Houston and may render flood control measures in the primary reservoirs and bayous irrelevant.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: wili on August 29, 2017, 07:54:49 AM
o
m
g

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/902400742518120448 (https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/902400742518120448)

"If GEFS ensembles are to be believed, then we need to watch the Western Gulf for another tropical system next week. Not helpful."

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017082900/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_36.png (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017082900/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_36.png)

...

And Addicks rising fast: https://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDetail/Index/2110?view=full (https://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDetail/Index/2110?view=full)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: BenB on August 29, 2017, 11:44:39 AM
Another aspect of the relationship between AGW and Harvey is background sea level rise, which in Texas is very significant (over 2 feet at Galveston over the past century, although admittedly only partly due to AGW):

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8771450

This affects storm surges and the speed at which flood water and swollen rivers drain into the sea, worsening the impacts of the storm.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Eli81 on August 29, 2017, 12:48:26 PM
Nice article by Eric Holthaus.

We knew this would happen, decades ago. We knew this would happen, and we didn’t care. Now is the time to say it as loudly as possible: Harvey is what climate change looks like. More specifically, Harvey is what climate change looks like in a world that has decided, over and over, that it doesn’t want to take climate change seriously.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/28/climate-change-hurricane-harvey-215547 (http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/28/climate-change-hurricane-harvey-215547)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 29, 2017, 01:27:44 PM
Current level of Addicks Reservoir is 107.46 ft, overtopping begins at 108 ft. Will likely start in a few hours.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902461883071868928 (https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902461883071868928)

Level of Barker Reservoir was 100.05 ft at 10pm, overtopping begins at 104 ft. Will likely start later today.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902462478616936448 (https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902462478616936448)

These structures were built in the 1930s to prevent downtown Houston from catastrophic flooding, and designed to withstand a 1000-year flood
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902462794661937156 (https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902462794661937156)

At this point, overtopping of Addicks&Barker Reservoirs seems inevitable. No one really knows what'll happen b/c it's never happened before.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902465151747596288 (https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902465151747596288)

Here's my best guess:
Water from the reservoirs will start to spill around upper ends of the dams later today, flowing into Buffalo Bayou.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902466626347458560 (https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902466626347458560)
(More of the thread continues in image below.)


What Happened to the Two Reservoirs That Were Supposed to Protect Downtown Houston?
http://amp.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2017/08/28/what_happened_to_the_reservoirs_that_were_supposed_to_protect_downtown_houston.html (http://amp.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2017/08/28/what_happened_to_the_reservoirs_that_were_supposed_to_protect_downtown_houston.html) 
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: crandles on August 29, 2017, 01:37:17 PM
Believe it or not, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes apparently don't hit the U.S. as often today as they did 100 to 200 years or so ago.

But is this a potential effect of climate change? More blocking and more stalling so hurricanes don't travel as far makes crossing a coast less likely. So some benefit to this climate change reducing number of landfalls but also an increased chance of most severe effects of stalling having just crossed a coast?

Similarly, similar numbers of hurricanes but an increase in proportion of the most powerful hurricanes could also be competing effects: Increase in sea surface temperatures encourages tropical storm formation and strengthening but increased shear reducing chances of tropical storms forming.

With such competing effects potentially going on, how do you arrive at a fair assessment of the role climate change has played?

Having said this, generally I agree with you that it is a bad idea to overstate the case when there is inadequate data to fully support such a position.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 29, 2017, 01:42:34 PM
In the best-case scenario, it will take 1-3 *months* to release all the water in the reservoirs, which are normally dry & used as parkland.
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/902469733789818880 (https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/902469733789818880)

The upstream neighborhoods will remain flooded that entire time.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902469819768774656 (https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902469819768774656)

[The article below], from @HoustonPress in 2012, is a decent deep-dive into risks of Addicks and Barker and efforts to fix them.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902480094207262720 (https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902480094207262720)

If the Addicks and Barker Dams Fail
http://www.houstonpress.com/news/if-the-addicks-and-barker-dams-fail-6594886 (http://www.houstonpress.com/news/if-the-addicks-and-barker-dams-fail-6594886)
 
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 29, 2017, 01:46:34 PM
At least the Euro continues to take the system farther east, which seems supported in the very short term by the overnight movement.  Would give Houston a bit of a break by shifting heaviest totals East.

Addicks is at 107.9 as of last report.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 29, 2017, 01:49:53 PM
Electric power outages have started to increase in Louisiana and New Orleans:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/08/hurricane-harvey-power-outages/#Aug-29-1200 (http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/08/hurricane-harvey-power-outages/#Aug-29-1200)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Daniel B. on August 29, 2017, 01:52:01 PM
Believe it or not, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes apparently don't hit the U.S. as often today as they did 100 to 200 years or so ago.

But is this a potential effect of climate change? More blocking and more stalling so hurricanes don't travel as far makes crossing a coast less likely. So some benefit to this climate change reducing number of landfalls but also an increased chance of most severe effects of stalling having just crossed a coast?

Similarly, similar numbers of hurricanes but an increase in proportion of the most powerful hurricanes could also be competing effects: Increase in sea surface temperatures encourages tropical storm formation and strengthening but increased shear reducing chances of tropical storms forming.

With such competing effects potentially going on, how do you arrive at a fair assessment of the role climate change has played?

Having said this, generally I agree with you that it is a bad idea to overstate the case when there is inadequate data to fully support such a position.

Very difficult to attribute climate changes to this particular storm.  Had Harvey encountered a low pressure system upon landfall, it would have been swiftly carried away.  Perhaps the only attribute that can linked is the very warm gulf temperatures.  This tends to increase the potential for tropical formation. 

I agree that we should not overstate these cases.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 29, 2017, 02:02:23 PM
In a follow up this wk, @houstonpress gave an update on the Corps of Engineers repair project, halted b/c of Harvey: 

How Are Addicks and Barker Reservoirs Handling Hurricane Harvey?
http://www.houstonpress.com/news/how-addicks-and-barker-reservoirs-are-handling-tropical-storm-harvey-9740819 (http://www.houstonpress.com/news/how-addicks-and-barker-reservoirs-are-handling-tropical-storm-harvey-9740819)

https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902480759948115968 (https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902480759948115968)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 29, 2017, 02:06:41 PM
More than 6,000 People Have Called 911 for High-Water Rescues in Houston
http://www.houstonpress.com/news/as-day-2-of-tropical-storm-harvey-comes-to-a-close-thousands-still-await-high-water-rescue-9741460 (http://www.houstonpress.com/news/as-day-2-of-tropical-storm-harvey-comes-to-a-close-thousands-still-await-high-water-rescue-9741460)


Is Harvey Also a Threat to the Air We Breathe?
http://www.houstonpress.com/news/houston-ship-channel-communities-deal-with-weird-smell-during-harvey-9741373 (http://www.houstonpress.com/news/houston-ship-channel-communities-deal-with-weird-smell-during-harvey-9741373)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 29, 2017, 02:07:13 PM
Too far out to be concerned with specifics, but the Euro suggest a major hurricane near Hispaniola and approaching the US East Coast second week of September.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: WadeDanielSmith on August 29, 2017, 02:51:36 PM
Well, the good news regarding the dams is that the rainfall rates on the far western edge of Houston have come down a lot since yesterday.

The bad news is that a 210 VIL cell near Galveston, in direct association with the CoC, is going to try to push onto the mainland in a few hours. This won't make it to western Houston either, but no matter who it hits its going to not make matters any better.

Beaumont looks to have taken it very hard over night from rains, and the rains continue very hard there.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 29, 2017, 03:03:45 PM
Important update: Addicks Reservoir in Houston just passed 108 ft, and is now overtopping.
My thread from earlier: https://mobile.twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/902460811020443649

https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902509581338681344
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: crandles on August 29, 2017, 03:08:30 PM
Perhaps the only attribute that can linked is the very warm gulf temperatures.  This tends to increase the potential for tropical formation. 

I agree that we should not overstate these cases.

I think sea level rise is a very solid contributing factor. Air containing more moisture due to higher air temperature is also pretty solid.

Perhaps we should also count subsidence due to oil extraction as fairly solid? Obviously this relates to ff a source of CC rather than climate change itself.

I think these are a lot more solid than higher gulf water temperature leading to more hurricanes because the number of hurricanes have not risen much and competing effects, if any, are difficult to verify/attribute.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 29, 2017, 03:17:59 PM
It unfortunately appears that heavy banding to the NE is going to wrap down over Houston metro within a few hours, and that is supported by the latest HRRR.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Archimid on August 29, 2017, 03:32:10 PM
My understanding is that total number of hurricanes is decreasing, but the total number of strong hurricanes is increasing. That is double bad. Low strength storms make up a significant portion of the normal expected rainfall. High strength hurricanes are very destructive as we can clearly see.

People saying this has nothing to do with global warming are fighting hard to keep their head under the sand. Too bad the climate DGAF. These types of event will only increase in frequency and intensity regardless of how deep they bury their heads.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: wili on August 29, 2017, 03:32:54 PM
sig, not overtopping the top of the dam, but yeah, they are in uncontroled spill now down the spill way...not good.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Paddy on August 29, 2017, 03:39:52 PM
Just throwing this out there, but there's an article here on ways to help with the hurricane response: http://abc7.com/weather/how-to-help-the-victims-of-hurricane-harvey/2348094/ (http://abc7.com/weather/how-to-help-the-victims-of-hurricane-harvey/2348094/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: WadeDanielSmith on August 29, 2017, 03:51:01 PM
The Neutral ENSO years over the next several decades are going to get noticeably worse with each decade.

the only thing that might slow this process down a tiny bit is the fact the Sun is forecast to enter a "Maunder Minimum" in about 30 or 40 years, based on Super Computer modeling. It's supposed to lower the solar flux at the Earth by about a half-watt per meter squared.

Unfortunately, we're producing CO2 and Methane* faster than ever now, and by the time this Maunder Minimum happens, assuming it happens at all, the forcing from AGW is going to increase by a few more tenths of a watt...which may offset half the entire Maunder Minimum...

*I think the Kyoto Protocols slowed down Methane production as a side effect in 1998, but the ESRL Methane curves shows that man-made Methane production must have accelerated again around 2007, and hasn't stopped accelerating. Now Methane mostly heats the atmosphere "Top-Down" due to it being one of the least dense gases in nature, as 90% of Methane occupies the top 10% of a container of air at Standard Temperature and Pressure. So this effects Hurricanes a bit differently than CO2 induced Global Warming, but darn...

CO2 heats the atmosphere "Bottom Up".

Harvey rains definitely AGW enhanced. It'll be interesting to see what the models pick out in post-season analysis.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on August 29, 2017, 04:00:52 PM
Will Addicks and Barker Reservoirs overtop at their flanks, erode, and fail?
Right, all of this was thoroughly covered yesterday -- ground subsidence, exploding impermeable surface, highway water barriers, packed earth construction of the 1940's dams, air gaps under the outflow culverts -- along with Monday's excellent Cat6 feature story by Dr J Masters.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/harvey-moves-back-over-water-historic-rainfall-will-continue (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/harvey-moves-back-over-water-historic-rainfall-will-continue)

He writes that the 8000 cfs releases from the two dams, while 2x what's permitted and massive enough to exacerbate Buffalo Bayou flooding downstream, is slower than expected inflows to the two watersheds, meaning neighborhoods above the reservoirs will still flood, just somewhat less.

I'm skeptical that will persist for long because of the fairly small size of these watersheds (map below). However it takes weeks to make a dent in water levels in these reservoirs once they are filled to the brim. Here 8,000 cubic feet per second drains 15,868 acre-feet per day or 3.9% of the two full reservoirs (25 days to empty). The inflow of 30,000 cfs adds 59,504 acre-feet per day of which 22,000 cfs over culverted outflow amounts to a 43,636 acre-feet excess.

According to wikipedia, Addicks is a rolled earthen dam 11.7 miles long that's only 123' above 1929 sea level despite the distance to Galveston Bay. The maximum storage capacity of the reservoir is 201,000 acre feet but -- because releases were able to buffer inflows last time -- record storage only hit 123,100 acre-feet on 4/24/2016. The 13.8 mile long rolled earth Barker has 209,000 acre-feet of storage capacity. It's lower, at 112.5' above sea level.

We use acre-feet in the US because land was historically surveyed in acres, and this measure gives water depth conveniently. Houston has 401,280 acres, Harris County 1,137,280 acres. So failure of both reservoirs is enough to cover all of Houston by an extra foot.

However, water from failed reservoirs would all flow down into the Buffalo Bayou watershed which is 65,280 acres, for which reservoir volume pencils out to 6.3' rise in coverage if equilibrated. Buffalo Bayou does drain to the sea, but very slowly because of aforementioned shallow gradient: the Buffalo Bayou canoe trail from Addicks to Allen's Landing (at Commerce/Main downtown) is 26 miles. That gives a gradient (rise over run) of 0.0009.

The key numbers to watch this morning (at the links I provided yesterday) are 102.65' for Addicks and 95.24' for Barker because these provide flood boundaries for the April 2016 event (these depend somewhat on the event-specific rainfall accumulation rate and distribution profiles).

By Monday morning at 2:15 pm EDT, Addicks had topped the Tax Day event by a full foot and Barker was over by 2.8'.

Tuesday, Addicks began overtopping its dam an hour ago and Barker will follow shortly (108' and 104' respectively). Inflow is said to be 30,000 cfs whereas outflow is more than maxxed out at 8,000 which will leave 22,000 cfs flowing over the far ends of the dams, which they were never built to handle. The floodgates cannot handle take another 22,000 cfs, they are already over design at 8,000. Either way, this is an out of control situation.

Barker Reservoir is 34 feet above the bottom of Buffalo Bayou’s streambed and the gate outlets; Addicks is 40.5 feet above the bottom of the outlets. Those numbers give the depths at full pool.

While overflow provides an upper bound to upstream neighborhood upper flooding, it could give rise to an erosive situation like the near-miss at the Oroville dam in California. That not only destroyed the massive concrete spillway but also severely eroded earthen margins.

Holthaus is incorrect in a sense in saying upstream houses are in the 500-year floodplain; they are not (map repeated below). While Harris County indeed takes careful note of high water boundaries and maps each flooded home in each storm, the floodplain maps are not regularly redrawn from that data because they negatively impact land values for developers. (Houston has been growing by 30,000 people per year.)

Here is a neighbor's account of why the Houston Medical Center flooded last time around: http://bigjollypolitics.com/stephen-costello-new-flood-czar/ (http://bigjollypolitics.com/stephen-costello-new-flood-czar/)

Here is a link that will open a nice satellite map of Houston and the two reservoirs:

https://www.google.com/maps/@29.8125045,-95.6550079,35976m/data= (https://www.google.com/maps/@29.8125045,-95.6550079,35976m/data=)!3m1!1e3

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2018.0;attach=51214;image)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: wili on August 29, 2017, 04:48:41 PM
per cnn...levees now breached south of Houston

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/29/us/texas-harvey-latest/ (http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/29/us/texas-harvey-latest/)

The levee at Columbia Lakes in Brazoria County have been breached. Brazoria County is just south of Houston.

The county's official Twitter account sent this message: "GET OUT NOW!!"
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: WadeDanielSmith on August 29, 2017, 04:58:36 PM
Apparently, some areas now have official rainfall totals over 50 inches. Consistent with the Radar readings, it just keeps coming.

I guess there is just so much rain over so much area that even these radically advanced radars aren't intended to measure it this way, so even this generation of radars slightly over-estimates the heaviest areas; Thankfully, we probably have NOT actually seen 80 inches of rain on land anywhere, but still, real-world measurements now above 50 inches in some locations.

I'll check some maps and see if I can find exactly where those gauges are, but this was just reported on Dr. Jeff Masters' site.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: wili on August 29, 2017, 05:05:23 PM
Houston police chief 'worried about how many bodies we're going to find'

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2017/08/houston_how_many_bodies_police.html#incart_river_home (http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2017/08/houston_how_many_bodies_police.html#incart_river_home)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on August 29, 2017, 05:11:10 PM
That levee breach may or may not affect homes in Columbia Lakes, map below, though roads may be inundated for a long time preventing return. As in Houston, homes are by design and regulation a couple of feet above street level which in the past has been enough to be effective.

It's not clear whether 'breach' means the Brazos River levee failed at a weak spot (standard usage) potentially allowing the entire river to pour through or just overflowed a levee in places which maintained however their structural integrity.

http://thefacts.com/article_2efdd457-b02c-5243-b714-cdf254ab4cca.html (http://thefacts.com/article_2efdd457-b02c-5243-b714-cdf254ab4cca.html) residents not leaving: Aug 27th

https://www.google.com/maps/@29.3112632,-95.5616295,160126m/data= (https://www.google.com/maps/@29.3112632,-95.5616295,160126m/data=)!3m1!1e3
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 29, 2017, 05:11:29 PM
Meanwhile over on the other side of the Atlantic:
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on August 29, 2017, 05:43:01 PM
The Corps of Engineers, despite 70 years of managing this facility, does not know which way the water will exit Addicks, even though ultra-high precision lidar and interferometric SAR digital elevation maps are easily found online with a basic journal search. (I had already done this two days ago anticipating someone somewhere had done it; the methodology is nearly identical to Greenland glacier research.)

The water will be flowing down the very slight gradient, eventually reaching Buffalo Bayou (rather than Cypress Creek or White Oak Bayou). However flow will back up too, approximately onto higher contour lines.

A disturbing lower White Oak Bayou master plan for flood reduction was taken offline after two days. It may still be around at the Wayback internet archive however. Censorship contributes very little to managing flood risk or its public understanding.

The reason the Corps does not study detailed failure scenarios in advance is because it generates alarming paperwork that might be exposed by FOIA requests (federal freedom of information act). When the Houston Sierra Club sued in 2011 over the Grand Parkway freeway up-watershed from the reservoirs (which are wholly on federal land), they uncovered a re-classification of the dams to Level 1, the top hazard level, which had not been publicly announced.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2002JB001848/full (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2002JB001848/full)
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-014-1067-x (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-014-1067-x)
https://uh-ir.tdl.org/uh-ir/bitstream/handle/10657/1006/KARACAY-THESIS-2013.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y (https://uh-ir.tdl.org/uh-ir/bitstream/handle/10657/1006/KARACAY-THESIS-2013.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y)

The Barker gauge flooded on Monday evening and no longer works; USGS staff cannot reach the site to repair it. A high-water police boat has been deployed to get them there. I have not been able to find design details for the gauge which may be have shorted-out electrical components (rather than being an old-fashioned pole with water levels painted on it).

Again, to control the narrative, personal drone flights have been forbidden. There can be valid reasons for that, such as collisions with helicopters, but we're not seeing videos from those either, even though they're transmitted in readily uploadable form. There is a lot of confusion right now over emergency spillways vs normal outflow culverts vs end runs around the dam edges that some better graphics could help with.

Jeff Lindner, with the Harris County Flood Control District, said Tuesday that he's certain that more homes and streets will flood as a result [of reservoir releases]. Lindner says the county is trying to determine where the water will go, specifically from the north end of the Addicks reservoir.

He says some homes will be inundated "for up to a month."

The flood gauge at the Barker reservoir is overwhelmed and disabled and officials are worried the Addicks gauge also will fail. ...

The surpassing capacity on the Addicks Reservoir comes after controlled releases were done on this water reserve and the Barker Reservoir. Addicks rose to 108 feet, causing water to spill out 34 feet out onto non-government land, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.

Officials said the neighborhoods primarily affected by the uncontrolled release are Twin Lakes, Eldridge Park, Lakes on Eldridge, Lakes on Eldridge North, Independence Farms, Tanner Heights and Heritage Business Park.

Water levels in the Addicks reservoir have reached 108ft, said Jeff Lindner, a Harris County flood control district meteorologist. He warned that neighbourhoods in the spillway zone would begin to see street and possibly structural flooding.

“We have never faced this before. We have uncertainty in how the water is going to react as it moves out of the spillway and into the surrounding area,” Lindner told a news conference on Tuesday. “We are trying to wrap our heads around what this water will do.”

Linder named six subdivisions that appear most at imminent risk and told residents: “If you want to leave, now is the time to leave. The reason being, once the water comes into the street you’re not going to be able to leave.” https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/29/houston-dam-hurricane-harvey-overspill-floods (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/29/houston-dam-hurricane-harvey-overspill-floods)

Some undated spillway videos:

https://www.click2houston.com/news/officials-monitor-forecast-as-addicksbarker-reservoirs-continue-to-release-water-to-buffalo-bayou (https://www.click2houston.com/news/officials-monitor-forecast-as-addicksbarker-reservoirs-continue-to-release-water-to-buffalo-bayou)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 29, 2017, 06:52:21 PM
"Still a named storm over 72 hours after landfall, Harvey is the longest a Texas landfalling hurricane has remained a named storm after landfall on record, according to Colorado State University tropical scientist Dr. Phil Klotzbach."

It's Not Over: Tropical Storm Harvey Rainfall Sets Preliminary All-Time Lower 48 States Record, Still Soaking Texas, Louisiana
https://www.wunderground.com/news/tropical-storm-harvey-forecast-texas-louisiana-arkansas (https://www.wunderground.com/news/tropical-storm-harvey-forecast-texas-louisiana-arkansas)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 29, 2017, 07:27:57 PM
6-7 day QPF indicates additional tropical moisture affecting the Gulf coast next week.

GFS model for Sept. 5 brings it ashore.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on August 29, 2017, 07:55:58 PM
There seems to be a universal reluctance on the part of those who presume to govern us to admit the fragility of the infrastructure on which modern life depends. A recent post on this thread showed the work by the USGS on subsidence in Houston over the last 40 years mostly due to over extraction of groundwater with consequent compaction of bedrock with the inevitable increased vulnerability to flooding.

Perhaps politicians and the senior management of our institutions who hold their positions through patronage  find it easier to placate us masses with bread and circuses rather than allocating resources to maintain necessary infrastructure.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Rippleillusion on August 29, 2017, 08:06:15 PM
I've heard many people opine that humanity won't wake up until a real disaster hits a major city. I disagree with them personally, because I think that has happened multiple times already with no response. but for sake of argument I would say that if this doesn't do it, nothing will.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 29, 2017, 08:48:16 PM
The 12z Euro suggest a major hurricane moving towards Puerto Rico, and a new tropical system developing and then landfalling in LA by next Wednesday.  The Gulf system would likely give rain to already inundated areas, but it's too far out for specifics.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 29, 2017, 08:54:25 PM
I've heard many people opine that humanity won't wake up until a real disaster hits a major city. I disagree with them personally, because I think that has happened multiple times already with no response. but for sake of argument I would say that if this doesn't do it, nothing will.

It took years to accomplish, but in 2015, President Obama signed a regulation that "required public infrastructure projects that received taxpayer dollars to do more planning for floods, including elevating their structures to avoid future water damage and alleviate the burden on taxpayers."

Trump repealed it two weeks ago.

Trump rolled back federal standards to flood-proof infrastructure projects a few weeks before Harvey hit
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/29/16214558/trump-federal-standards-infrastructure-projects (https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/29/16214558/trump-federal-standards-infrastructure-projects)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 29, 2017, 08:59:10 PM
End of the 12z Euro for next Friday.  That is a cat 3 or 4 with more time to strengthen.  Again, too far out in time, but something to watch.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 29, 2017, 09:03:23 PM
Finally, a ~straight track outta here!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 29, 2017, 09:06:53 PM
#Harvey now officially the most extreme rain event in US history--1 weather station received more than 49" (so far)

Harvey marks the most extreme rain event in U.S. history
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/29/harvey-marks-the-most-extreme-rain-event-in-u-s-history/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/29/harvey-marks-the-most-extreme-rain-event-in-u-s-history/)

https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/902588901105307648 (https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/902588901105307648)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Rippleillusion on August 29, 2017, 09:08:06 PM
I've heard many people opine that humanity won't wake up until a real disaster hits a major city. I disagree with them personally, because I think that has happened multiple times already with no response. but for sake of argument I would say that if this doesn't do it, nothing will.

It took years to accomplish, but in 2015, President Obama signed a regulation that "required public infrastructure projects that received taxpayer dollars to do more planning for floods, including elevating their structures to avoid future water damage and alleviate the burden on taxpayers."

Trump repealed it two weeks ago.

Trump rolled back federal standards to flood-proof infrastructure projects a few weeks before Harvey hit
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/29/16214558/trump-federal-standards-infrastructure-projects (https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/29/16214558/trump-federal-standards-infrastructure-projects)

I just don't even know what to say anymore.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Daniel B. on August 29, 2017, 09:46:59 PM
I've heard many people opine that humanity won't wake up until a real disaster hits a major city. I disagree with them personally, because I think that has happened multiple times already with no response. but for sake of argument I would say that if this doesn't do it, nothing will.

It took years to accomplish, but in 2015, President Obama signed a regulation that "required public infrastructure projects that received taxpayer dollars to do more planning for floods, including elevating their structures to avoid future water damage and alleviate the burden on taxpayers."

Trump repealed it two weeks ago.

Trump rolled back federal standards to flood-proof infrastructure projects a few weeks before Harvey hit
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/29/16214558/trump-federal-standards-infrastructure-projects (https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/29/16214558/trump-federal-standards-infrastructure-projects)

I just don't even know what to say anymore.

Not that it would have made any difference.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Jim Pettit on August 29, 2017, 09:56:40 PM
It took years to accomplish, but in 2015, President Obama signed a regulation that "required public infrastructure projects that received taxpayer dollars to do more planning for floods, including elevating their structures to avoid future water damage and alleviate the burden on taxpayers."

Trump repealed it two weeks ago.

Trump rolled back federal standards to flood-proof infrastructure projects a few weeks before Harvey hit
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/29/16214558/trump-federal-standards-infrastructure-projects (https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/29/16214558/trump-federal-standards-infrastructure-projects)

Obama was for it, so Trump and the GOP are against it. Doesn't matter how effective or cost efficient is the program or policy; if BHO started it, Donald "Look At The Size Of Those Crowds!" Trump promises to end it.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on August 29, 2017, 10:12:25 PM
Since it wasn't happening with either the press or flood control officials, I used the little-known (?) Google Maps to find interactive imagery of the flood control structures necessary to understand the overtopping of the dam. These are the gates, the conduits, the USGS gauging towers, and the emergency spillways.

The first thing I learned is that the dams have no emergency spillways in the civil engineering sense. The earth berms are topped with paved roads in places and with decaying concrete aprons elsewhere.

The top surface of these very long dams are not level but taper lower up-reservoir (relative to sea level). This is where the water will spill over into the neighborhoods such as Tanner in a flood emergency. It is only in this sense that there are 'emergency spillways'.

The gates and conduits (rectangular concrete culverts) are very limited in their discharge capacity. This makes sense as higher discharges exacerbate flooding in downtown Houston, the opposite of the Corps's mission.

Even if extra discharge capacity did exist, the Corps would be extremely reluctant to push too hard on it because of potential cavitation or damage to the gates, knowing it would not help upstream neighborhoods that much while making things even worse downtown.

The USGS gauging stations are conventional hollow towers. Addicks uses lidar/radar to determine water height in sensor 2109. They were likely never envisioned to be overtopped and may have taken in far too much silt or woody debris (which piles up at the base as the reservoir dries out). Alternatively, the chicken wire system protecting the wires going in may have been knocked aside or floated off by rising water.

I'm sympathetic to the Corps here because they have dealt with non-stop political interference, delays in funding of essential modernizations, unending home and road construction on the very edges of the reservoirs in areas certain to flood every time the reservoirs get serious use, and all the additional impervious surface that goes with that new construction that increase both runoff volume and rate of reservoir filling. The prairies are long gone that used to take a big hit on adsorbing rainfall.

Where did the City Fathers think this was going? I suppose 'après moi, le déluge'.  (Ironically, the motto of the RAF 617th which carried out "Dambuster" raids on the Ruhr in May 1943.)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: CraigsIsland on August 29, 2017, 10:20:27 PM
jeez. As a Californian who monitored the Lake Oroville spillway failure and near disaster of its emergency spillway, this is extremely risky stuff here. If one of the spillways or main dam breaks, that's a lot of water to be dispersed in those neighborhoods!

Really bad timing for Texas and NOLA (repairing of pump system).

These storms are going to cost the US treasury quite a bit of tax money. :(.

Also, hopefully people can pool together resources to help each other out and get life moving again.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Rippleillusion on August 29, 2017, 11:04:43 PM
Trump:

"Governor, again, thank you very much," Trump said. "We won't say congratulations. We don't want to do that. We don't want to congratulate. We'll congratulate each other when it's all finished."

What...why....how...
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 29, 2017, 11:05:03 PM
“It’s not like the government comes in with big buckets of cash and just hands it out.  People who don't have insurance may have to abandon their homes.”

Where Harvey is hitting hardest, 80 percent lack flood insurance
Hurricane Harvey struck Southeast Texas as a Category 4 storm Aug. 25. Texans now face catastrophic flooding, which is expected to worsen.

The vast majority of homeowners in the area devastated by Hurricane Harvey lack flood insurance, leaving many who escaped the storm with little financial help to rebuild their homes and lives.

“I wish I had flood insurance now,” lamented Leroy Moore, a 58-year-old whose home in northeast Houston filled with water. He cancelled his flood policy when it grew too expensive. He and his wife were rescued from the rising waters on Sunday by National Guard troops and are now sleeping in a church. “When it's a choice to make between things and life, sometimes you've just got to let the things go and hang on to life.”

Regular home insurance covers wind damage, but not flooding. Homeowners have to purchase separate flood insurance policies from the government-run National Flood Insurance Program, which will end in late September unless Congress renews it. In Texas, the average cost for a NFIP plan is $500 a year, but it can rise to more than $2,000 for homes inside a floodplain.

Only 17 percent of homeowners in the eight counties most directly affected by Harvey flood insurance policies, according to a Washington Post analysis of Federal Emergency Management Agency data. When disaster hits, the policies cover up to $250,000 in rebuilding costs and $100,000 to replace personal stuff like TVs and furniture.

Everyone else who loses their home to flooding will be dependent on private charity and government aid, especially grants from Federal Emergency Management Agency.

But FEMA's help is a poor substitute for flood insurance: The grants, intended to help residents rebuild homes and cover hotel stays until permanent housing is available, are capped at $33,300. Most receive significantly less. Funds will be even tighter if Congress doesn't provide additional emergency funding for Texas soon. ...
Part of the problem is the vast majority of people hit by Harvey weren't even in a high-risk flood zone, says Chuck Watson, founder of Enki Holdings, which has estimated storm damages for years. Harvey is an unusual storm because it's triggering so much additional flooding as levees, dams and reservoirs overflow. “It's blowing up our usual models,” Watson says.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/08/29/where-harvey-is-hitting-hardest-four-out-of-five-homeowners-lack-flood-insurance/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/08/29/where-harvey-is-hitting-hardest-four-out-of-five-homeowners-lack-flood-insurance/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: wili on August 29, 2017, 11:06:04 PM
A-Team just wrote: "The first thing I learned is that the dams have no emergency spillways in the civil engineering sense. The earth berms are topped with paved roads in places and with decaying concrete aprons elsewhere. "

This just struck me too. Unbelievable.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: oren on August 29, 2017, 11:30:48 PM
Looking here https://twitter.com/joshuabrown18 (https://twitter.com/joshuabrown18), some more information on Addicks:
100 cfs spilling over the sides right now (elevation 108.73)
As it climbs to 109.5, there will be 4500 CFS spilling over the sides and spillway.
109.5 feet is the point at which more water will be coming over the sides than through the controlled dam. 4500cfs
110.4 is forecasted top for  Addicks
109.5 is when 4500cfs will pour out the side,
Going a foot higher than that.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIaT87EUMAA8M-k.jpg:large)

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on August 29, 2017, 11:32:03 PM
Another good update from WU's Bob Hensen. The weather is moving on tomorrow and so will the attention deficit disorder media. The first shows a before-and-after at the indicated site near Clay Road using google map tilt for the before.

This may incorrectly attribute to spill-over what is merely the reservoir backing up. Some 3,300 homes in the area will be similarly affected for several weeks to come. The second provides a locational overview.

As of noon, the homes that may experience flooding at Addicks is estimated at 2,500 with 670 more above Barker. Homes near Addicks Reservoir could see anywhere from 3.5 to 5 feet of water and 3 to 4 feet near Barker, officials say.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/harvey-houston-most-extreme-rains-ever-major-us-city (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/harvey-houston-most-extreme-rains-ever-major-us-city)

http://www.khou.com/weather/hurricanes/hurricane-harvey/controlled-release-of-barker-addicks-reservoirs-to-impact-thousands/468348109 (http://www.khou.com/weather/hurricanes/hurricane-harvey/controlled-release-of-barker-addicks-reservoirs-to-impact-thousands/468348109)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 29, 2017, 11:46:48 PM
From The Weather Channel:  the red line outlines the area Addicks Reservoir was designed to fill.  Yes, they built neighborhoods within that area!  And now that the reservoir is overflowing, even more neighborhoods are being flooded.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 29, 2017, 11:49:55 PM
Living on your roof.  #Harvey.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2017, 12:04:37 AM
NWS Houston:  CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGES: Mandatory evacuations issued for the following neighborhoods: #houwx #glswx #bcswx #txwx
https://twitter.com/nwshouston/status/902643335109763074

If you wait, you may not be able to get out after 11pm.

This is north of Houston.

"As of Sunday August 27, stormwater levels are predicted to rise outside of government-owned land at the Addicks Reservoir in the early hours of Monday, August 28. Stormwater levels are predicted to rise outside of government-owned land at the Barker Reservoir on or about Wednesday, August 30. "

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on August 30, 2017, 12:16:38 AM
The issue right now is whether the Addicks berm will shortly fail. Like at Oroville, water gets under the partial concrete cap they're calling a spillway and takes away the fine dry soils, collapsing it. Or it just makes an end run and rapidly demolishes the berm west to east.

The attached anonymous twitter image analyzes relative berm heights at Addicks. These are consistent with the end run scenario as the sole non-spillway overflow and Corps statements about discharge on the north. However the heights may be lifted off an old document and not reflect substantial subsidence in NW Houston. They are not consistent with elevations shown at Google Earth Pro which is generally quite accurate.

All dams leak to begin with -- and here the pressure at the bottom has just soared from mere air atmospheric to 47.2 psi from the 108.85' loading (this may be a relative elevation to the Bay and need location-dependent offsets to get at true reservoir depth -- see google earth transects next page). An auto tire might be filled to 34 psi in the US.

Whatever historic leakages were before, they will be much higher for months or more likely blow out. The Corps does have piezometers strung all along the many miles of perimeter monitoring internal pressure but these may not be online.

Diana Wray at the Houston Press has been doing an extraordinary job of tracking the issue:

TUES,AUG 29 2017 11:23 am: Harris County Flood Control is keeping a list of the neighborhoods it is predicting will see water from Addicks and Barker as both controlled and uncontrolled releases continue to move slowly out of the reservoirs, into those surrounding neighborhoods and then into Buffalo Bayou.

Lindner said right now – and that’s a key phrase, because while both Flood Control and the Corps are working furiously to model these conditions and figure out how this is going to play out before it actually happens – they believe water will move toward Sam Houston Tollway, head south to I-10 and eventually into Buffalo Bayou.

About five percent of the water in the bayou will be from the controlled release, 15 percent will come from the uncontrolled release and the rest will come from the runoff and rain downstream of the dams. Buffalo Bayou’s water levels will not be receding anytime soon, and even after Harvey is finally over the controlled releases for the dams will continue for anywhere from one to three months.

While Lindner and the other officials working this currently believe Houston itself will not be much affected by the releases from Addicks and Barker, he admitted they don’t actually know what is specifically going to happen. He pointed out that he can’t think of any other city that has faced this particular problem, with overflowing reservoirs and neighborhoods built right up against the structures.

“At first we thought there wouldn’t be any water in these areas, and then we realized there would. Then we thought the water would only be in the streets, but now we know it may be in the structures as well,” Lindner said. “This is uncharted territory.”
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2017, 12:22:04 AM
Amazing video sent to us @KHOU, freeway concrete barrier broke away on Hwy 59 at San Jacinto Bridge. #HoustonFloods
https://twitter.com/dtgoterakhou/status/902587452040282114

Video at the link.


 New aerial imagery from @NOAA shows nearly complete destruction of homes in #Rockport, Texas from Hurricane #Harvey
https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/902636988767068161

Images at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2017, 01:29:09 AM
Drone video of downtown Houston flooding at the link:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BYUdV4iB05g/?taken-by=_chase_boogie (https://www.instagram.com/p/BYUdV4iB05g/?taken-by=_chase_boogie)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 30, 2017, 03:38:02 AM
Beaumont, Texas has been under extreme conditions for much of the day.  TS winds and heavy rain, with flooding reported, nighttime rescues suspended.  Population 100,000.

I'm afraid that when search and discovery is complete, from Rockport over through Louisiana, the toll from Harvey is going to be shockingly high for those that assumed everyone fled or was rescued.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 30, 2017, 12:12:45 PM
Harvey is finally giving Houston some respite, from the rain if not from the power outages:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/08/hurricane-harvey-power-outages/#Aug-30-1000 (http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/08/hurricane-harvey-power-outages/#Aug-30-1000)

Make sure to check out the rainfall radar animation.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 30, 2017, 02:13:09 PM
The imagery coming out of Beaumont/Port Arthur is striking. Water in evacuation shelters and people crowded onto steps and bleachers. Two major population centers in Texas have been devastated, and only 20 miles spared a third (Corpus Christi).  This with all of the flooding across Asia and elsewhere, and one would think the climate conversation would gain more consciousness in America, which it will, but not to the extent it should because of the current administration's stance of denial and hostility to science.

With focus on search and recovery in Texas, the soon to be Irma is projected to become a major hurricane as it traverses the Atlantic.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 30, 2017, 02:25:18 PM
The evacuation shelter image is actually a perfect metaphor for the climate future:  the places you think are safe are not, and the crush of humanity will be increasingly forced to retreat to smaller and smaller viable locations.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Ned W on August 30, 2017, 02:32:49 PM
I haven't seen this mentioned yet here, but yesterday TS Harvey broke the all-time record for single-storm rainfall anywhere in the contiguous US (http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/08/floodwater-still-rising-as-harvey-makes-second-landfall.html): 51.88" (131.8 cm) at Cedar Bayou, TX.

I wonder how long that record will last?  With warmer oceans and a warmer atmosphere able to hold more water vapor, extreme precipitation events have already become much more common in the US (http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/extreme-weather) and this intensification will continue for the foreseeable future.

Cities and states had better wake up and start preparing for more intense floods (and more intense droughts, as well).

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: logicmanPatrick on August 30, 2017, 02:58:18 PM
Pileus:
This with all of the flooding across Asia and elsewhere, and one would think the climate conversation would gain more consciousness in America, which it will, but not to the extent it should because of the current administration's stance of denial and hostility to science.

Conservative groups shrug off link between tropical storm Harvey and climate change  (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/30/tropical-storm-harvey-climate-change-conservatives-donald-trump)

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2017, 03:04:54 PM
NWS gives the specs for the new Continental U.S. rainfall record:
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on August 30, 2017, 03:15:53 PM
Harvey's rainfall is spreading into coastal Louisiana and then the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys, albeit in somewhat less mind-boggling amounts.

So the infrastructure of New Orleans and other coastal regions will be tested. I wonder if hidden away in the records of the Army Corps of Engineers (?) the EPA (?) FEMA (?) and elsewhere are rational fact-based assessments of the resilience or vulnerability of those infrastructures.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on August 30, 2017, 03:21:24 PM
Meanwhile, back at Lake Addicks (the full pool of the reservoir plus perhaps an equal area backed up to the northwest), Google Earth Pro has a different view on reservoir depth transects across and along the berm, showing the expected 108' level and a 10' drop over the berm but a rather uneven surface for it. The lowest stretches on the berm are where overflow is occurring.

If the skies clear, we may get a Sentinel-2AB or Landsat image today. Only with those or a drone overflight can the real overflow zones be identified, as water seeks its own level very subtly at these very shallow gradients.

Many of the flood photos online are neither geo-located nor time-stamped. It is necessary to catch the name of store fronts and google map search them to find where they were taken. The dramatic photo below shows a Mexican chain franchise,Taqueria Arandas at Clay and Hwy 6 next to a Jack in the Box, which can be unambiguously identified as looking east to the almost entirely submerged golf course in the NW corner of the Addicks reservoir.

Cars are variably submerged up to their windows, indicating a depth of 2-3' or so here. Apparently no panoramic photo was taken, though most smart phones can tile these up easily as a helicopter rotates.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2017, 03:25:18 PM
Although river flooding will be ongoing for awhile, some of the smaller watersheds are already seeing big improvements #Harvey #houwx #txwx
https://twitter.com/nwshouston/status/902748402819231744
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2017, 03:41:28 PM
In its urgency and gravity, the #Beaumont #PortArthur #Orange situation on par w/#Harvey in Houston on Sat night. And it's still raining.
https://twitter.com/bhensonweather/status/902884414891245568 (https://twitter.com/bhensonweather/status/902884414891245568)

Horrors beyond horrors in #Beaumont #PortArthur #Orange TX right now- thousands fighting for their lives. http://hurricanehalssb.blogspot.com/2017/08/horrors-beyond-horrors-unfolding-in.html (http://hurricanehalssb.blogspot.com/2017/08/horrors-beyond-horrors-unfolding-in.html)
#Harvey
https://twitter.com/hal_needham/status/902883603801149442 (https://twitter.com/hal_needham/status/902883603801149442)

The worst conditions faced in Harvey unfolded overnight and is still unfolding this morning in the "Golden Triangle" of Beaumont- Port Arthur- Orange.

Harvey made a second landfall near here, and torrential rain has been literally spinning over the same areas for 9-12 hours now. Rainfall rates have reached 4-6 inches an hour at times.
...
I set up Facebook group to connect people and 800+ joined within 2 hours. The messages have been horrific.

Messages like, "EXTREME CRISIS! THIS IS AN OLDER COUPLE! Just spoke to [Name]. Says water up to shoulders. Will try to get on roof of house."

I promise I am not exaggerating when I say at least hundreds, if not thousands, of people are fighting for their lives right now.
...
The scale of this is incomprehensible. It's as if the entire states of Connecticut and Rhode Island are submerged and two or three counties are fighting for their lives.


There's been so much rain overnight in Port Arthur, TX that even the evacuation center flooded.

Hundreds of people evacuated #Harvey to the Bob Bower Civic Center in Port Arthur.
This is what it looks like as water began to rush in.
https://twitter.com/_juanrodriguez_/status/902812719333728256 (https://twitter.com/_juanrodriguez_/status/902812719333728256)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2017, 03:45:03 PM
Catastrophic flooding now in the Beaumont-Port Arthur-Orange region of E Texas -- a population equal to city of New Orleans.
>20" overnight

UPDATE:
Up to 45.72 inches of rain in Beaumont, #Texas, w/ nearly half in the past 24 hours alone. The rain has been unyielding. #Harvey
https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/902869409655652357
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 30, 2017, 03:46:57 PM
Irma will officially join in the fun shortly:

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/902876634843406340

NHC will be initiating advisories at 11 AM AST on Tropical Storm Irma, located west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on August 30, 2017, 04:12:24 PM
Ouch ... Zillow home prices in the overspill area of Addicks. Even if insured, which 80% are not, that will only provide partial coverage. Then there is the question of mold in a very humid city developing over a month of flooding and who knows how long until contractors can get on it.

Another effort to track elevations along the road on top of the berm. It appears not to exactly follow the high point in the berm, throwing off the elevation profile taken as along the road. At the time of the Google satelite photo, there were ongoing repairs at the main spillway, blue dot.

Officials reported that the Addicks reservoir's water level rose about a half-foot between noon and 6 p.m. Tuesday, but Corps engineers now think it's maximum level will be 109.1 feet. That is more than a foot lower than previously predicted... The reservoirs have received 32 to 35 inches (81 to 89 centimeters) of rain since Harvey hit last weekend, but Russo says less than an inch (2.5 centimeters) of rain is forecast in the coming week....

Reservoir storage: 178,000 acre feet on 08-29-2017 at 01:30 CDT https://waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/uv?site_no=08073000
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Archimid on August 30, 2017, 04:24:01 PM
When they say climate change will mostly affect the poor they must be referring to intangibles like well being and life, because dollar wise the ones with the most will lose the most.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: wili on August 30, 2017, 04:28:14 PM
???

Sooo, to you, money is the only thing that is 'tangible'??

Following up on A-Teams helpful graphics, Addicks level is now over 109, so more and more of the dam is being overtopped, especially to the north.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2017, 04:32:53 PM
NWS Corpus Christi:  A storm survey team from our office viewed this devastating damage from #HurricaneHarvey in Holiday Beach, #Texas yesterday #txwx
https://twitter.com/nwscorpus/status/902637165032722432

Video at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: wili on August 30, 2017, 04:40:15 PM
As far as I can see, they never actually do show an areal view of the reservoirs, but lots of amazing footage of just how much of this part of texas have basically become an inland sea:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=puR8Dcr27-M (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=puR8Dcr27-M)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2017, 04:44:15 PM
Radar animation of #Harvey ~5 days long. Amazing and scary to watch this engine churn out all that rain.
https://twitter.com/nwsmorristown/status/902900155271270400

Video at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 30, 2017, 05:24:37 PM
The current NHC prognosis for Irma:
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Ned W on August 30, 2017, 05:35:14 PM
This visualization by Vox is pretty stunning:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fd6LAnTC.jpg&hash=f551adf9f8448ff0674a9a39dd9d4bcb)

All the rain that's fallen over Houston so far, in one massive water drop

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/8/28/16217626/harvey-houston-flood-water-visualized (https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/8/28/16217626/harvey-houston-flood-water-visualized)

Seems to be correctly scaled, too.

Edited to replace the massive graphic with a smaller version; full resolution is at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: ritter on August 30, 2017, 05:36:39 PM
Thanks to all for the information beyond Houston. The media's focus has been so directed at that area I've seen little info on those communities more along the coast, downstream and on the receiving end of all the floodwater. Best to all of those impacted and sincere thanks to all those rendering aid.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: jai mitchell on August 30, 2017, 07:22:59 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-30/harvey-shows-how-planetary-winds-are-shifting (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-30/harvey-shows-how-planetary-winds-are-shifting)

Why Harvey Is Stuck Near Texas
Hurricanes gain strength from warmer oceans, but climate change might be causing another problem higher in the sky.

In March, Mann and several colleagues published a study in the journal Scientific Reports that demonstrates a relationship between extreme events, such as the 2011 Texas drought and 2010 Pakistan flooding, and a rare stationary phase that upper atmospheric currents sometimes go through in the mid-latitudes.

Stefan Rahmstorf, a co-author of that paper and head of Earth Systems Analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, explained that there may really be several things going on. In general, the jet stream, the high-flying river of air that flows west-to-east, has slowed and gone all wavy in recent summers, with pronounced north-south meanders. That’s one thing that may have helped hold Harvey in place. Researchers have sparred since 2012 over whether Arctic warming, which is occurring at twice the global average, is driving this atmospheric wobble, consequently creating more opportunities for persistent weather farther south.

In a number of extreme cases analyzed by their paper—California drought, Russia’s 2010 heatwave and Pakistan’s related flood—the meandering north-south river of the jet-stream stabilizes for periods of time in some places, creating an insurmountable wavelike band. The researchers looked for some kind of misbehavior in atmospheric circulation after realizing that heat-related effects alone couldn’t explain the extreme nature of some disasters.

James Hansen also discusses this on Democracy Now! today  https://www.democracynow.org/2017/8/30/ex_nasa_scientist_james_hansen_there (https://www.democracynow.org/2017/8/30/ex_nasa_scientist_james_hansen_there)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: TerryM on August 30, 2017, 08:08:08 PM
SigMN
Just wanted to send a note of appreciation for your work on this thread. Makes it easy to keep up with the latest.
Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: wili on August 30, 2017, 08:17:44 PM
I second Terry's appreciation toward sig, and I'll add jai to the mix!

(And of course our own Terry is always appreciated, even when we occasionally disagree, as crabby old men are wont to do occasionally! '-) )

Meanwhile, the scribbler is at it again, with some good context along the lines of what jai just posted: https://robertscribbler.com/2017/08/30/so-lets-talk-about-the-science-of-how-climate-change-kicked-harvey-into-higher-gear/#comment-123079

According to Dr Michael Mann, Ocean surfaces in the Gulf of Mexico are fully 1 to 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer, on average, than they were just 30 years ago. This warming provides more energy for storms that do form. And this, in turn, raises the top potential intensity of storms.

Some scientists, like Dr. James Hansen, refer to this prevalence of worsening extremity as loading the climate dice. If, in the past, we were rolling with a die six with a 1 representing the lowest storm intensity and a 6 representing the highest, we’re now rolling with something like a die six +1. The result is that the strongest storms are stronger and the absolutely strongest storms have an ability to achieve previously unattainable strengths due to the fact that there’s a lot more energy there to kick them into a higher state.

Increased potential peak storm intensity as a climate change factor does not necessarily result in more tropical storms forming overall. That part of the science on hurricanes is highly uncertain. But that heat engine in the form of warmer surface waters is available for the storms that do form to tap. And that can make them a lot stronger and more damaging than they otherwise would have been.

Another metaphor I've seen recently is leading the bat...you might not hit the ball more frequently, but when you do, it is much more likely to go out of the park. (Might not make sense to those unfamiliar with US baseball and ways of cheating at the same, tho...)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2017, 08:35:51 PM
"Our whole city is underwater right now but we are coming!  Please get to higher ground if you can, but please try stay out of attics."
- Port Arthur Mayor Derrick Freeman


Estimated 30,000 to 40,000 homes destroyed in Houston area
Houston Police Chief Art Acevedo said [life-threatening] 911 calls for water rescues were down to about 40 an hour as of this morning. Still, the Coast Guard is taking more than 1,000 calls per hour from people needing rescue.

Harris County Flood Control District meteorologist Jeff Lidner told reporters this morning that the lowest homes near the Addicks and Barker reservoirs have 3 to 6 feet of water.
...
The largest oil refinery in the United States is shutting down because of the devastating floods. Its owner, Motiva Enterprises, announced in a statement early today that it began a "controlled shutdown of the Port Arthur refinery in response to increasing local flood conditions."

The refinery won't reopen until floodwaters recede, the company said. ...
http://abcnews.go.com/amp/US/harvey-now-tropical-storm-makes-landfall-louisiana/story (http://abcnews.go.com/amp/US/harvey-now-tropical-storm-makes-landfall-louisiana/story)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2017, 08:52:17 PM
Hurricane Harvey: Residents in small communities work through damage
About 80% of Bayside [Texas] is destroyed, and it will be about two to three weeks before the electricity will be restored to the small community of about 300 people, said Karen Clark, assistant city secretary and municipal clerk.

A quarter of the town's residents rode out the hurricane in their homes, and despite the storm's fury, no deaths or injuries were reported.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2017/08/30/hurricane-harvey-residents-small-communities-work-through-damage/615297001/ (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2017/08/30/hurricane-harvey-residents-small-communities-work-through-damage/615297001/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2017, 08:57:13 PM
Harvey Could Reshape How and Where Americans Build Homes
• Storm comes as U.S. flood insurance program is up for renewal
• Texas has one of the most relaxed approaches to building codes
Hurricane Harvey has highlighted a climate debate that had mostly stayed out of public view -- a debate that’s separate from the battle over greenhouse gas emissions, but more consequential to the lives of many Americans. At the core of that fight is whether the U.S. should respond to the growing threat of extreme weather by changing how and, even where, homes are built.

That debate pits insurers, who favor tighter building codes and fewer homes in vulnerable locations, against homebuilders and developers, who want to keep homes as inexpensive as possible. As the costs of extreme weather increase, that fight has spilled over into politics: Federal budget hawks want local policies that will reduce the cost of disasters, while many state and local officials worry about the lost tax revenue that might accompany tighter restrictions on development.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-30/harvey-could-reshape-how-and-where-americans-build-their-homes (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-30/harvey-could-reshape-how-and-where-americans-build-their-homes)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2017, 09:02:35 PM
SigMN
Just wanted to send a note of appreciation for your work on this thread. Makes it easy to keep up with the latest.
Terry

Thanks, Terry. 

And thanks to everyone for adding different perspectives, and additional information!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2017, 09:10:10 PM
Beaumont/ Port Arthur, Texas, is in desperate need of help, as thousands need to be urgently rescued. As rains tapered off in the Houston Metro area last night, parts of the Beaumont- Port Arthur region received an ADDITIONAL 20" or more of torrential rain.

Unfortunately, all roads into the region are blocked by high water....often 20-30 miles before reaching the metro area.

I'm leading a boat convoy from Galveston this afternoon and will be away from computer for several days. ...
http://hurricanehalssb.blogspot.com (http://hurricanehalssb.blogspot.com)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2017, 09:38:00 PM
Houston mosques open doors to shelter Harvey evacuees
(CNN) As flooding from Tropical Storm Harvey drives thousands of people from their homes across southeast Texas, more and more houses of worship are opening their doors to evacuees.

At least four Houston-area mosques, all affiliated with the Islamic Society of Greater Houston, are currently serving as 24-hour shelters. ...
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/08/30/us/mosques-shelters-trnd/index.html
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Lord M Vader on August 30, 2017, 10:17:15 PM
GFS 12z op run has Irma down to 903 hpa, equivalent to a Cat 5 - hurricane. ECMWF is taking it down to 951 hpa by D8 which should be a Cat 3 - hurricane. In any case, Irma might pose a real threat to Hispaniola, Lesser Anthilles, Bahamas, US East coast and Florida. Worst case scenario should therefore be a powerful Cat 5 - hurricane over these areas.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: SteveMDFP on August 30, 2017, 10:25:28 PM
Ouch ... Zillow home prices in the overspill area of Addicks. Even if insured, which 80% are not, that will only provide partial coverage. Then there is the question of mold in a very humid city developing over a month of flooding and who knows how long until contractors can get on it.
 . . .

Quite right about the mold.  This isn't a mere nuisance problem.  Post-flooding mold growth of Stachybotrys appears likely to have serious health implications:

Stachybotrys chartarum: The Toxic Indoor Mold
http://www.apsnet.org/publications/apsnetfeatures/Pages/Stachybotrys.aspx (http://www.apsnet.org/publications/apsnetfeatures/Pages/Stachybotrys.aspx)

After *feet* of rainfall in the Houston area, I can't imagine any but a relative handful of homes are entirely free of flooding.  Almost none of these can be expected to get dried out within the ideal 72-hour window.  After that, anything porous showing mold pretty much needs to be ripped out, including wood framing, not just drywall.  When the cost of such repair exceeds the market value of the home, I think we'll see many, many people just abandoning their homes. 

Which further devastates home values.  Which further encourages people to just walk away.  Kind of like Detroit's decline, vastly accelerated.

The costs and pain of this storm are just beginning, in many ways.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2017, 10:30:04 PM
This is a *freeway* in the Beaumont-Port Arthur area. Absolutely devastating rainfall
https://mobile.twitter.com/blkahn/status/902905777169555456

Video at the link.


This is probably the worst US flood storm ever, and I’ll never be the same
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/08/this-is-probably-the-worst-us-flood-storm-ever-and-ill-never-be-the-same/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 31, 2017, 12:12:51 AM
In the linked article, Scribbler discusses the science of how climate change may have contributed to the destructive nature of Hurricane Harvey:

Title: "So Let’s Talk About the Science of How Climate Change Kicked Harvey into Higher Gear"

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/08/30/so-lets-talk-about-the-science-of-how-climate-change-kicked-harvey-into-higher-gear/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 31, 2017, 01:30:48 AM
Here is another article discussing the link between climate change and the impacts of Harvey:

Title: "Arctic Warming Made Harvey A ‘Killer Storm,’ Climate Researcher Says"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/climate-change-hurricane-harvey_us_59a6f6a3e4b00795c2a35c15 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/climate-change-hurricane-harvey_us_59a6f6a3e4b00795c2a35c15)

Extract: "Soaring temperatures in the Arctic are causing record ice melt, animals to change ancient patterns, and Greenland to literally burn.
 
But the effects don’t stay in the northernmost latitudes. Melting sea ice and increased warming slow down global air currents called jet streams and cause storms like Hurricane Harvey to “meander” and “stall,” according to Charles H. Greene, a professor of earth and atmospheric sciences at Cornell University.

“What happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic,” he said in a statement on Wednesday. “Just like Superstorm Sandy, Arctic warming likely played an important role in making Hurricane Harvey such an extreme killer storm.”"
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2017, 01:57:41 AM
OMG

Tyler County’s message to its constituents north of Beaumont, Texas: “GET OUT OR DIE!”
https://mobile.twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/903042658850963457 (https://mobile.twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/903042658850963457)


Edit:  not a hoax -- It is posted on their official Facebook page.
https://www.facebook.com/Tyler-County-Emergency-Management-242049542505977/ (https://www.facebook.com/Tyler-County-Emergency-Management-242049542505977/)

http://www.ksbw.com/article/east-texas-county-tells-residents-get-out-or-die/12142731 (http://www.ksbw.com/article/east-texas-county-tells-residents-get-out-or-die/12142731)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2017, 03:52:57 AM
HWRF 18z wastes no time ramping up Irma into a major hurricane over next 3-5 days.  Note bend in track to the WSW, unusual to lose latitude.
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/903050314730917888
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 31, 2017, 04:10:06 AM
HWRF 18z wastes no time ramping up Irma into a major hurricane over next 3-5 days.  Note bend in track to the WSW, unusual to lose latitude.
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/903050314730917888

Longer range plots have Irma curving out to sea. Not good for the upper latitudes or whatever remnants hit Europe, but a strike on the island chains would be especially bad as Harvey is stretching all sorts of resources that would otherwise be available to be deployed elsewhere.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2017, 04:19:26 AM
"Out to sea"...  eventually....

"Current tropical systems on a map thru next 15-days from ECMWF EPS (12z)
Most #Irma tracks very intense (Cat 4+) w/U.S. threats. "
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/903031486768717824
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2017, 04:21:50 AM
Thoughtful San Antonio opinion piece.

Texas officials need to accept climate change
Texas officials — notably, Gov. Greg Abbott, Rep. Lamar Smith, Sens. Ted Cruz and John Cornyn — need to accept the science and follow it with appropriate policy. Ignoring the science, perpetuating false doubt, is to court future disasters.
http://www.mysanantonio.com/opinion/thirdandavenuee/article/Texas-officials-need-to-accept-climate-change-12159178.php (http://www.mysanantonio.com/opinion/thirdandavenuee/article/Texas-officials-need-to-accept-climate-change-12159178.php)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: jai mitchell on August 31, 2017, 06:23:43 AM
Don't know how valid this is but apparently early GFS model projections are a Cat 5 Hurricane Irma headed close to or into the Carolinas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqWAwvvuS3A (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqWAwvvuS3A)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: aperson on August 31, 2017, 06:47:01 AM
If Irma's going to take a northward trend into the cyclone train that's forming, would anyone be able to hazard a guess as to how they would interact?

Between the cyclone train that is being generated from EPAC toward the pole and the amount of upwelling that was done by Harvey (and more storms this season at this rate), I'm starting to wonder if the levee on our convection budget just breached. Maybe this is the wording we should be using to explain to people how climate change and a runway greenhouse effect work?

Upwelling from Harvey: https://twitter.com/SoonerTom/status/903089795345338376
Cyclone train from equator toward pole: https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/903083907653935105

It seems like it will ride the cyclone train conveyor belt straight south toward the equator and recurve up depending on how much resistance it gets. If that happens it will be completely off the charts. Landfall actually somewhere along Yucatan?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: wili on August 31, 2017, 07:18:02 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DHRGrIqmb0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DHRGrIqmb0)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Lord M Vader on August 31, 2017, 07:31:57 AM
Latest GFS 00z op run takes Irma down to 897 hpa. A lower pressure than that has only been measured by Wilma, Gilbert and Rita. The 00z op run also has Irma to make a bend similar to Sandy by +210h but that scenario should be a black swan due to that it's so far ahead. Let's see what the EC says.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 31, 2017, 08:44:01 AM
The latest NHC track has Irma becoming "major" on Sunday:

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast and Irma is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: oren on August 31, 2017, 12:20:32 PM
Finally found a drone video of the northeast overflow point of Addicks. It doesn't seem like a strong flow that can cause erosion, although I'm not sure when the video was taken.
! No longer available (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEfY7ce_hOY#)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2017, 01:11:35 PM
The Gulf coast of Texas and Louisiana is a center of petroleum refining and chemical production.

Organic peroxides which explode if not kept cold.   The plant's generators became flooded... then the back-up generators flooded. The chemicals were moved to diesel-powered refrigerators, but now those are failing. The remaining skeleton staff was evacuated due to the danger.

Explosions reported at flood-hit Arkema chemical plant in Texas
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-harvey-arkema-idUSKCN1BA2LF (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-harvey-arkema-idUSKCN1BA2LF)

Houston-Area Chemical Plant ‘Could Explode,’ CEO Says
http://www.thedailybeast.com/houston-area-chemical-plant-could-explode-ceo-says?via=twitter_page (http://www.thedailybeast.com/houston-area-chemical-plant-could-explode-ceo-says?via=twitter_page)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 31, 2017, 01:13:22 PM
The 0z Euro solution takes Irma through the islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba.  Whatever remains likely emerges into the Straits of Florida or Gulf and goes on to impact Mexico or the US

Beyond any range of utility, but the 6z GFS is different kind of absolute nightmare scenario, taking a strong cat 4 into North Carolina, up the Chesapeake Bay, and then up through NY.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2017, 01:16:17 PM
Final Houston-area rainfall totals for Harvey, the worst rainstorm in American history.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/903056075800358913
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2017, 01:18:24 PM
As #Harvey exits the scene, all eyes turn to #Irma as it potentially sets its sights on the NE Caribbean and then...? Long week ahead!
https://mobile.twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/903196328913772544
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2017, 01:32:22 PM
Article includes a great little video by Katharine Hayhoe on why providing science and data will not persuade most climate change deniers. But you can connect via things that you both value, like saving money on electric bills, or improving the lives of your children.

Want to talk climate change with a Texan right now? Show some compassion first.
Yes, we should be having the conversation about climate change and Hurricane Harvey, and anyone who tells you otherwise probably has ulterior motives. But before we go there, we need to show the people of the Gulf Coast that we genuinely care about them. Could our shared value be the lives of Texans who are hurting?
https://grist.org/article/want-to-talk-climate-change-with-a-texan-right-now-show-some-compassion-first/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2017, 02:04:52 PM
Don't know how valid this is but apparently early GFS model projections are a Cat 5 Hurricane Irma headed close to or into the Carolinas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqWAwvvuS3A (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqWAwvvuS3A)

"Only thing we can say about #Irma is that its heading toward North America. Anything else is simply irresponsible. Many different solutions."
- Jim Cantore
https://twitter.com/jimcantore/status/903088547304964097 (https://twitter.com/jimcantore/status/903088547304964097)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on August 31, 2017, 02:21:33 PM
Nice catch, Oren. Finally, a beautiful drone flight of the overspilling Addicks Reservoir past the "armored" emergency spillway showing surrounding neighborhoods, somewhat after the high water.

In #342, it says no longer available but if you click on that text, it opens and plays perfectly. I'm attaching two stills below (first needs a click) in case the Corps forces a take-down. Without a timestamp, the water level cannot be determined at the time of flight. It was quite a while after the peak however. The side seeps are another whole issue that is not over by any means but probably manageable.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEfY7ce_hOY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEfY7ce_hOY)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on August 31, 2017, 03:15:45 PM
I post operational runs for curiosity only, but ensembles this far out are preferred.  And even so it's too far out for the ensembles to be anything but directional.  This is shaping up to be an ominous scenario.

"Major development: The best ECMWF EPS members via initialization score are west of ensemble mean track, taking #Irma into the Gulf of Mexico "

https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/903240235525529600
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Lord M Vader on August 31, 2017, 04:59:34 PM
Irma has rapidly strengthened and is now a Category 2 hurricane. Continued strengthening is anticipated during the next couple of days and Irma should become a major hurricane later today....
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2017, 05:08:55 PM
If you breathe it in, we don't think it will kill you.

Texas chemical plant: Smoke from the fire is “noxious.” Toxicity is “a relative thing”
https://twitter.com/cnn/status/903262929331597313 (https://twitter.com/cnn/status/903262929331597313)
Video clip from press briefing.

Harvey aftermath: More chemical fires possible as city loses clean water
http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/31/us/harvey-houston-texas-flood/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/31/us/harvey-houston-texas-flood/index.html)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2017, 05:19:32 PM
Nice catch, Oren. Finally, a beautiful drone flight of the overspilling Addicks Reservoir past the "armored" emergency spillway showing surrounding neighborhoods, somewhat after the high water.
<snip>

I'm surprised the drone didn't catch anyone patrolling the berms.  I would expect they'd have people out there monitoring the situation constantly. :o
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: oren on August 31, 2017, 06:02:53 PM
Nice catch, Oren. Finally, a beautiful drone flight of the overspilling Addicks Reservoir past the "armored" emergency spillway showing surrounding neighborhoods, somewhat after the high water.
<snip>

I'm surprised the drone didn't catch anyone patrolling the berms.  I would expect they'd have people out there monitoring the situation constantly. :o
I think I could spot a person standing on the levee next to the overtopping.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Juan C. García on August 31, 2017, 06:31:28 PM
Maybe we should focus a little in what it is happening in Asía. We know that regions like Bangladesh are going to have a huge impact with AGW...  :(

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=57403#.Wag4BtGQzIU (http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=57403#.Wag4BtGQzIU)

41 million people have been affected by flooding...

_______________________________

Edit: Excused me, seems that the flooding is caused by torrential monsoon rains, not hurricane involved (so the comment is off topic, it belongs to "Floods", in which is being treated).
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Gray-Wolf on August 31, 2017, 06:38:07 PM
I think Irma will be a physically large system as well as high Cat? Should she stay south then Cat5 would seem assured? There is some cooler waters in her path but if she reaches major status before she reaches that area she will not notice it that much?

One positive is that she will mess up the ocean for the three waves following behind and so limit their chances of forming into anything nasty.

There is still a chance of Jose forming in the GOM next week. If Irma makes it into the GOM then they will interact making Forecasting their paths as nightmare!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2017, 07:50:15 PM
Life in space still requires assistance from the ground.  Houston, you have a problem.

How NASA kept the International Space Station flying while Harvey hit Mission Control
https://www.theverge.com/2017/8/31/16228906/nasa-mission-control-center-tropical-storm-harvey-international-space-station (https://www.theverge.com/2017/8/31/16228906/nasa-mission-control-center-tropical-storm-harvey-international-space-station)




When a furniture showroom becomes a storm shelter
Sleeping soundly in the mattress room next to the evacuees are about 60 National Guard troops. They rest in between shifts of rescuing Houstonians from dangerous floodwaters.

"(The troops) are sleeping on the best Tempur-Pedic mattresses that are on the market," store employee Dave Marchione says. "And I'll tell you what -- those are some happy soldiers."
http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/30/us/gallery-furniture-store-houston-shelter/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/30/us/gallery-furniture-store-houston-shelter/index.html)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2017, 07:56:26 PM
Maybe we should focus a little in what it is happening in Asía. We know that regions like Bangladesh are going to have a huge impact with AGW...  :(

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=57403#.Wag4BtGQzIU (http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=57403#.Wag4BtGQzIU)

41 million people have been affected by flooding...

See also the Floods thread for information on monsoon and other flooding not necessarily caused by hurricanes/typhoons.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2017, 08:39:20 PM
 Tweeted a few minutes ago:

Jeff, What is the status of Integrity of Barker & Addicks dams.

Jeff Lindner, Meteorologist with the Harris County Flood Control District:
"There are no issues with the dams, they are being checked constantly by COE staff"
https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/903322276195700736
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on August 31, 2017, 09:44:25 PM
anyone patrolling the berms. expect people out there monitoring the situation constantly. spot a person standing on the levee next to the overtopping.
The Addicks berm is like 11.7 miles long, Barker 13 miles; the Corps does monitor 24/7 during events like this that are filling the reservoirs but this likely amounts to a vehicular patrol.

On major Corps dams, like the 13 above the Willamette Valley in Oregon or or BuRec dams like Glen Canyon Dam in Arizona, security is extremely tight, partly post-911 stuff but mostly homegrown 'threats' from steelhead fishermen, tribal members, environmentalists, and assorted crazies.

You can not get anywhere near the dams on foot or by boat and they would not allow drone overflights. Upon taking a tour inside the larger dams, you can get yourself in a heap of trouble just by making wisecracks (ahem).

The berm had cavities under the conduits but those got repairs after the last two years of flooding. They are keeping an eye on the many seeps and no doubt are prepare to inject grout at very short notice, these berms are flaky but not remotely as bad as the Mosul dam.

Back to Houston and all the media kumbaya, the damage will take on ethnic, racial and income disparity flavors: the red dots (25 white people) are disjoint from the orange dots (25 hispanics) which are disjoint from blue dots (25 blacks) which are disjoint from the green dots (25 asians). Not a melting pot by any means.

Now overlay that with Zillow housing price, the insured, and flood damage maps and take the product to see where the recovery burden will fall.

Houston is what's called a majority minority city. Harvey won't change anything: white developers will still run the city, business as usual will continue. (I lived there for three years.)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2017, 11:08:37 PM
White House now estimates 100,000 homes destroyed by Harvey.
https://twitter.com/peteralexander/status/903333769318461440

This will likely increase.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: wehappyfew on September 01, 2017, 12:04:14 AM
Fallout from Harvey - closed refineries:

In driving around the DFW area running errands today, only two gas stations had any fuel, and lines were very long, with angry drivers. Prices up about $0.50.

Every auto parts store, walmart, etc is out of gas cans.

Traffic seemed heavier than usual, maybe more people desperately using up their remaining fuel to drive around looking for an open gas station.

I avoided looking in the rear-view mirror - my smug face must have been unbearable, as I scooted along on battery power in my 500e.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 01, 2017, 12:47:24 AM
Wow. Irma is now a major hurricane, just 36 hours after forming. Keep watching this one closely.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/903385512391651328
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 01, 2017, 01:52:05 AM
Some models show #Irma growing nearly as strong as any Atlantic hurricane ever has, on record. Potential tracks are ominous. Bad feeling.

Major Hurricane Irma now ... I'd be surprised if storm didn't become Cat 5 during next 5-7 days. Many EPS ensembles are very intense.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/903357153582481410
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on September 01, 2017, 02:08:00 AM
Those 180+ knot outputs were apparently data conversion errors.  Nonetheless, with fewer out to sea solutions Irma is looking more likely to have a substantial impact wherever it ends up.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 01, 2017, 02:42:34 AM
A new analysis from the University of Wisconsin’s Space Science and Engineering Center has determined that Harvey is a 1-in-1,000-year flood event that has overwhelmed an enormous section of  Southeast Texas equivalent in size to New Jersey.

There is nothing in the historical record that rivals this, according to Shane Hubbard, the Wisconsin researcher who made and mapped this calculation. “In looking at many of these events [in the United States], I’ve never seen anything of this magnitude or size,” he said. “This is something that hasn’t happened in our modern era of observations.”


Harvey is a 1,000-year flood event unprecedented in scale
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/31/harvey-is-a-1000-year-flood-event-unprecedented-in-scale/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/31/harvey-is-a-1000-year-flood-event-unprecedented-in-scale/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 01, 2017, 03:00:43 AM
Pollutants....  :(

Wow look at this! You can actually see the flood waters flowing out of Houston and into The Gulf of Mexico from space! #harvey
https://mobile.twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/903347889203761153


Much later edit:

As A-Team notes below, image is from NASA Worldview.  It is available here:
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=90873&src=iotdssi
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on September 01, 2017, 06:56:53 AM
Again it's just one operational run and one solution of many to come over the next 10 days from multiple models, but the 0z GFS would strike a crippling blow on the US.  It takes a cat 4 with circa 140 mph winds and a giant surge up the Chesapeake Bay.  The Navy base in Norfolk would be wrecked (although the fleet would be sent to sea), and there would be significant damage and disruption in DC, Baltimore, Philly and NY, and points inland with a likely large wind field and battering waves and surge along the coast.  Thankfully this solution is unlikely to verify.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Rippleillusion on September 01, 2017, 07:43:03 AM
Again it's just one operational run and one solution of many to come over the next 10 days from multiple models, but the 0z GFS would strike a crippling blow on the US.  It takes a cat 4 with circa 140 mph winds and a giant surge up the Chesapeake Bay.  The Navy base in Norfolk would be wrecked (although the fleet would be sent to sea), and there would be significant damage and disruption in DC, Baltimore, Philly and NY, and points inland with a likely large wind field and battering waves and surge along the coast.  Thankfully this solution is unlikely to verify.

If Harvey doesn't become the straw that breaks the camels back, I would put my money on that one. Holy cow. As you say, its unlikely. But wherever this thing ends up theres going to be trouble.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on September 01, 2017, 12:54:46 PM
The political fall-out from Harvey will commence / has commenced. Texan Republican Congressmen are /will be in a bind.

"The congressional members in Texas are hypocrites," New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), a Trump ally, said this week. "I said back in 2012, they’d be proven to be hypocrites. It was just a matter of time." (re the Sandy relief bill)

GOTO -
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-energy-202/2017/08/30/the-energy-202-we-asked-texas-republicans-about-harvey-and-climate-change-only-one-answered/59a5a73d30fb043976501511/?utm_term=.dd4584948eed (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-energy-202/2017/08/30/the-energy-202-we-asked-texas-republicans-about-harvey-and-climate-change-only-one-answered/59a5a73d30fb043976501511/?utm_term=.dd4584948eed)

IRMA may or may not hit the USA. Meanwhile the chances of it hitting parts of the Caribbean as a cat4 or cat5 are high. If Haiti is hit then one of the "places becoming less liveable" may become "a place unliveable".
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 01, 2017, 01:33:10 PM
"Buffalo Bayou to remain at record level; Barker, Addicks reservoirs have peaked"

Harris County Flood Control District says it'll be like that for some time as water from the Addicks reservoir flushes into Buffalo Bayou. Officials estimate the situation could remain like this for up to 2 weeks as they drain Addicks.

The water levels at the Addicks and Barker reservoirs have crested, meaning officials do not expect conditions there to worsen.
http://www.khou.com/weather/hurricanes/hurricane-harvey/controlled-release-of-barker-addicks-reservoirs-to-impact-thousands/468348109 (http://www.khou.com/weather/hurricanes/hurricane-harvey/controlled-release-of-barker-addicks-reservoirs-to-impact-thousands/468348109)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: jai mitchell on September 01, 2017, 05:10:41 PM
Again it's just one operational run and one solution of many to come over the next 10 days from multiple models, but the 0z GFS would strike a crippling blow on the US.  It takes a cat 4 with circa 140 mph winds and a giant surge up the Chesapeake Bay.  The Navy base in Norfolk would be wrecked (although the fleet would be sent to sea), and there would be significant damage and disruption in DC, Baltimore, Philly and NY, and points inland with a likely large wind field and battering waves and surge along the coast.  Thankfully this solution is unlikely to verify.

If Harvey doesn't become the straw that breaks the camels back, I would put my money on that one. Holy cow. As you say, its unlikely. But wherever this thing ends up theres going to be trouble.

much too early to say, I am hoping that a large low pressure moving currently through the north east U.S. will shift the dominant high pressure over the Atlantic further east and draw Irma up north prior to hitting Cuba.  That would be the best case scenario and is the reason for the current deviation between GFS and EURO models (EURO holding Irma further south).
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on September 01, 2017, 05:58:18 PM
Latest Euro ensemble tracks.

"Good bet at a casino is an intense Hurricane Irma at Cat 4 or 5.  But it's still red or black on U.S. impacts.  Hope it's a "fish storm"

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/903611653664669697


Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on September 01, 2017, 06:12:57 PM
"The best case scenario is for Irma to hit Cuba" ? Charming.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on September 01, 2017, 06:41:02 PM
"The best case scenario is for Irma to hit Cuba" ? Charming.

I don't think he/she is suggesting that.  Rather, the upper airflow pulls Irma north before the trajectory takes it directly into Cuba.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on September 01, 2017, 07:19:16 PM
Wow look at this! You can actually see the flood waters flowing out of Houston and into The Gulf of Mexico from space!
Sigh, another tv journalist tweeting away without providing a timestamp, credit or source for the satellite material. That means everyone else must spend hours chasing down Landsats or Sentinel-1ABs trying to find the cloud-free scene at high resolution.

It turns out to be a Modis Terra 250m available at WorldView (momentarily down).  Also seen on GOES16 https://tinyurl.com/ycfxgl69. Not good enough, we need the Sentinels here.

There'll be a big bathtub ring of mud defining the high water mark. Since houses in Houston are almost always higher than their lawns, if the street flooded but the lawn is still green, that house did not flood. Ditto for cars on that driveway. So this is a very unusual situation wherein oblique aerial photos are not needed for a damage assessment.

The flooded cars are probably totaled from the perspective of the insurance company, meaning the title gets automatically changed to 'salvage' and later to 'rebuilt' if someone can get them running again. These will be wholesaled at Denver auctions and redistributed all over the US with 'clean' titles and wiped carfax histories to unwary buyers.

It is far too early for the White House to talk about the extent of damage -- 100k homes is just a wild guess. The real issue may be road beds, bridges, sewer and water lines. Costs to fix those are astronomic. However these these strong, self-reliant, white evangelical trump-voting (every single Gulf Coast county!) coastal Americans will reject anything that smacks of a gov't handout (?) as they have always done (?).

In the early days of Harvey, it was reported literally hundreds of times that GOES-16 was "not operational", even as the scientist or reporter was posting imagery from an obviously fully functioning satellite.

The geostationary GOES-16 was actually launched in November 2016 and became operational shortly thereafter (for those not needing the solar instruments, quantitative calibration or final East positioning). Its imagery packets are beamed down compressed but not encrypted and anyone underneath can download and unpack them at their home. That's operational from my perspective.

The advanced baseline imager is the primary weather instrument on GOES-16. It has sixteen spectral bands: two visible, four near-infrared and ten infrared. It's at higher bit depth and 4x better   ground resolution than previous satellites in the series. Being 35,786 km up, it cannot take high resolution ground photos like Landsat or Sentinel.

The GOES-16 Geostationary Lightning Mapper images intra-cloud lightning 24/7 of severe storms even when high cirrus clouds obscure underlying convection from the ABI. Flash rate correlates with increased storm intensity. The  telescopic CCD camera is tuned to 777.4 nm with a spatial resolution of 8 km, capturing 500 frames per second.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: jai mitchell on September 01, 2017, 07:26:06 PM
Very long Range GFS shows Irma as a major hurricane landfall in New England.

Caveat: extremely low reliability at such a long range forecast, could be very different in a few days.

https://twitter.com/strawn_04/status/903406333835198464
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 01, 2017, 07:38:47 PM
30 minutes ago:

City of Houston:
US Army Corps of Engineers says water releases into Buffalo Bayou on west side necessary to avoid larger catastrophe in next rain.
https://twitter.com/sylvesterturner/status/903663927720108032

REPEATING: Asking residents w/ water in homes to leave if S of I-10, W of Gessner, N of Briarforest, E of reservoirs.

If not enough heeding of voluntary evacuation request, mandatory order will be considered.

But only residences with water on first floor. Water may stay there for two weeks.

Because U.S. Army Corps of Engineers must release reservoir water for 15 days.

No need to leave west Houston zone if no water in your home now.

Second story housing and above will not be safe. Apartments therefore are covered by evacuation request.

City will provide transportation to shelter at NRG complex in S. Houston
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 01, 2017, 07:51:39 PM
As if the real Irma forecasts weren't bad enough, someone posted a totally fake one. Image at the Twitter link.

It's a federal crime to publish a hoax forecast or warning that makes it look like it was issued by the NWS or NOAA. https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2074 (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2074)

https://twitter.com/wxdam/status/903455116350631936 (https://twitter.com/wxdam/status/903455116350631936)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 01, 2017, 08:01:33 PM
Odds that #Irma will eventually pose major threat to US are rising. But still ~60% chance of landfall less than Cat 3 or a curve out to sea.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/903674563648557056

Over the past 4 cycles, the ECMWF EPS has consistently risen probabilities (now 40%) for a Major Hurricane (#Irma) to approach the Eastrn US
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/903655974057148416
GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: aperson on September 01, 2017, 08:43:10 PM
From Houston's Hydrologist: https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/903687392544083968

"It is estimated that the 47.4 inches of rainfall in 4 days on Clear Creek equates to a 40,000 year event"

Seems the climate dice are loaded enough that we can start pointing to single events as signifiers of climate change.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on September 01, 2017, 09:00:09 PM
The 12z Euro op has a borderline cat 5 100 miles offshore Daytona Beach and heading for the upper FLA peninsula or GA/SC.  Ensembles will be out shortly.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: P-maker on September 01, 2017, 09:13:24 PM
Gerontocrat:
” "The best case scenario is for Irma to hit Cuba" ? Charming.”

Apparently, the Cubans have developed evacuation plans even for their cattle. Not sure this applies in the Southern US even for the people suffering as we speak.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on September 01, 2017, 09:55:17 PM
Still too far out for high confidence, but positive trends with a recurve emphasis at 240h, and the center progressing north of the Leeward Islands at 120h

https://mobile.twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/903704882934423554
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on September 01, 2017, 10:27:37 PM
Whoa, wet and muddy Houston aftermath on Sentinel-2AB playground. The overtopped berm on Addicks has a white rectangular service building at its end.

https://tinyurl.com/ybp4uqkr

Guardian on Friday 1 Sep 17 14.31 EDT: The Texas department of public safety said more than 185,000 homes were damaged and 9,000 destroyed, estimates which are likely to rise once receding waters give authorities access to heavily populated suburbs.

With swollen rivers and reservoirs still risking potentially deadly flooding, the Red Cross said the number of people in shelters across the region had increased to 42,000.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on September 02, 2017, 12:36:43 AM
18z GFS ops.  The models are having no shortage of extreme disaster scenarios, and this is the worst one yet.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Rippleillusion on September 02, 2017, 12:43:19 AM
18z GFS ops.  The models are having no shortage of extreme disaster scenarios, and this is the worst one yet.

Oh my word...
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on September 02, 2017, 12:44:20 AM
That would probably be a $500 billion disaster, maybe a trillion.  The loss of life would be staggering.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: rboyd on September 02, 2017, 01:52:10 AM
I just finished a novel with a category five hurricane hitting New York in 2032, I may have to change that part of the story ... I thought I was being a little pessimistic.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 02, 2017, 02:08:11 AM
 ::)

After Harvey, the Trump administration reconsiders flood rules it just rolled back
A couple of weeks ago President Trump scrapped Obama-era rules, intended to reduce the risks posed by flooding, that established new construction standards for roads, housing and other infrastructure projects that receive federal dollars.

Trump derided these restrictions, which were written in response to growing concerns over the impact of climate change, and other federal rules as useless red tape holding back the economy.

“This overregulated permitting process is a massive, self-­inflicted wound on our country — it’s disgraceful — denying our people much-needed investments in their community,” he said in the lobby of Trump Tower in New York during an event to tout his infrastructure policies.

But now, in the wake of the massive flooding and destruction caused by Hurricane Harvey along the Gulf Coast, the Trump administration is considering whether to issue similar requirements to build higher in flood-prone areas as the government prepares to spend billions of dollars in response to the storm.

This potential policy shift underscores the extent to which the reality of this week’s storm has collided with Trump officials’ push to upend President Barack Obama’s policies and represents a striking acknowledgment by an administration skeptical of climate change that the government must factor changing weather into some of its major infrastructure policies. ...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/after-harvey-the-trump-administration-reconsiders-flood-rules-it-just-rolled-back/2017/09/01/c3a051ea-8e56-11e7-8df5-c2e5cf46c1e2_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/after-harvey-the-trump-administration-reconsiders-flood-rules-it-just-rolled-back/2017/09/01/c3a051ea-8e56-11e7-8df5-c2e5cf46c1e2_story.html)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: logicmanPatrick on September 02, 2017, 02:54:18 AM
Short term economic solutions usually lead to 'save a dime, spend a dollar' situations.  Some take time, perhaps decades.  Others take hours, as in the case of the ship Grandcamp.  The skipper, not wanting his precious cargo to be damaged by water ordered the hoses off and the hatches battened down to smother the fire.  8:25 am - fire siren sounded.  9:12 am ship detonated.

The first explosion led indirectly to a second in another ship.  1:10 am next day - High Flyer detonated, destroying the nearby ship Wilson B. Keene.

Everyone who even hints at de-regulation as a means of "saving money" or other such foolishness should be forced to read a detailed account of the 1947 Texas City Disaster (http://www.texascity-library.org/disaster/index.php) and then watch the video showing gruesome images of identification procedures.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 02, 2017, 03:26:48 AM
 Meanwhile, in New York City... let's hope this is only a theoretical exercise, and not the real thing next weekend.

New York City Reviews Plans on Flooding After Houston Disaster
City staff ‘looking at what a Harvey-type event would mean’
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-09-01/new-york-city-reviews-plans-on-flooding-after-houston-disaster (https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-09-01/new-york-city-reviews-plans-on-flooding-after-houston-disaster)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 02, 2017, 04:05:22 AM
Flooding of Bear Creek Village on the western edge of Addicks Reservoir #houwx #hounews
https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/902578860222554113
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on September 02, 2017, 08:58:02 AM
This evening's GFS run destroyed Philadelphia. No need to post it, since it won't happen.  Here's the Euro taking a massive cat 4 into South Carolina on 9/11. 

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Gray-Wolf on September 02, 2017, 01:37:00 PM
Cat 6 ( Bob Henson over at WU) are in meltdown after the 06 GFS smashes an apocalyptic Cat 4 into NYC/New Jersey........ but as folk say it'll be mid week before we really have a chance of seeing where she's bound?

We have been seeing the Pacific Basin throw up some massive storms over recent years as well as showing us fast developing storms. It appears the upper atmosphere woes of the Atlantic Basin ( since 05') are now over? I'm sure the switch in Pacific Naturals, back in 2014, began this move back to a Basin able to grow tall storms not plagued by Saharan Dust and Shear?

If what the Pacific basin has been showing us holds true then fast forming ,mighty Hurricanes may well be the flavour of the season?

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on September 02, 2017, 02:04:22 PM
Flooding on the western edge of Addicks Reservoir
Meanwhile, mopping up some misinformation up-forum using new information from the Harris County flood control district twitter site https://twitter.com/hcfcd

Addicks Reservoir is currently releasing 7000 cfs and Barker 6300 cfs which will continue for another couple of weeks before cutting back to 4000 (if no further rain). Elsewhere newspapers had given these as 4000 + 4000 as conduit spill design maximums. Evidently not.

The emergency spillways (armored sections of berm ends) are tapered downwards. This means the north end of the north Addicks spillway overflows first; if the reservoir rises further, overflow moves up higher on the taper. The other spillway, being at higher elevation all along its taper, never comes into play. (The Addicks watershed had about 35" of rain, not 60".) They expect a slow end to Addicks north end spilling by Saturday Sept. 2nd.

The effect of draining the reservoirs is to keep Buffalo Bayou too high. Many houses that are flooded now will stay flooded for another two weeks. If they had not aggressively drained the reservoirs, up-reservoir flooding would have been prolonged.
   
As of 8/31 they've estimated an 136,000 flooded structures, roughly about 10 percent of registered HCAD structures. (Harris County Appraisal District lists all homes for property tax purposes). The previous flooding record here was 70,000 homes.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 02, 2017, 04:52:14 PM
NWS Houston:  In the wake of #Harvey, here is some insight into when flood waters will recede: #houwx #glswx #bcswx #txwx #TexasStrong
https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/903677676791226369
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 02, 2017, 05:16:28 PM
Will Harvey's Damage Shift How Congress Sees Climate Change and Budget Cuts?
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/29082017/hurricane-harvey-rain-damage-climate-change-oil-industry-congress-budget-flood-insurance-science
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 02, 2017, 06:27:42 PM
Lengthy radar loop at the link.

>100 hours, >1000 images: #Radar of #Harvey's extreme catastrophic rainfall
https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/903815784086085632
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 02, 2017, 08:46:35 PM
BREAKING: AP Exclusive: Many Houston ultra-polluted Superfund sites are flooded, concerns about toxins spreading; EPA not on scene.
https://twitter.com/ap/status/904031403985305601


Edit: article:
AP EXCLUSIVE: Toxic waste sites flooded in Houston area
https://apnews.com/27796dd13b9549b0ac76aded58a15122
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 02, 2017, 09:08:42 PM
Stretching the Thread topic a bit, but:  grateful citizens are donating to a "gofundme" campaign for Houston meteorologist Jeff Lindner.  The original plan was to buy him a well-deserved vacation, but as a federal employee he cannot accept it.  So they will give him the money to donate as he sees fit.

Let's Buy Jeff Lindner a Vacation
https://www.gofundme.com/lets-buy-jeff-lindner-a-vacation (https://www.gofundme.com/lets-buy-jeff-lindner-a-vacation)


In one day, thankful Houstonians have raised >$17k for a vacation for their county's hero meteorologist. @JeffLindner1 saved countless lives
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/904055386222854145 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/904055386222854145)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 03, 2017, 01:04:17 AM
Houston mayor orders mandatory evacuation of flooded homes near the reservoirs.

Ordering MANDATORY evacuation of West Houston dwellings already flooded by release of water from Addicks and Barker-Cypress reservoirs.
https://twitter.com/sylvesterturner/status/904110393286676481

People in about 300 inundated homes in the zone have so far chosen to stay despite by voluntary evacuation yesterday.

But now Centerpoint will turn off electricity to inundated dwellings in the zone starting 7 a.m. Sunday. Doesn't apply to unflooded homes,

Mandatory evac order under state law is only for flooded homes south of I-10, north of Briarforest, east of reservoirs and west of Gessner.

Mandatory evacuation order is to prevent harm to residents and make first responder work more feasible in that zone.

People in about 115 homes have already evacuated voluntarily. Thousands more need to be evacuated, according to Fire Dept.

The @cohoustonfire will make sure everyone who needs help to evacuate will get it.

I'm ordering this mandatory evacuation of west Houston zone with my authority granted by state law.

About 4,600 apartments and houses got flood water in the mandatory evacuaton zone. Most have already left.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 03, 2017, 01:14:30 AM
Use the sliders to compare "before" and "after" satellite images.

Planet Satellite Imagery Shows Harvey Devastation
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/americas/2017/09/01/planet-satellite-imagery-shows-harvey-devastation/ (https://www.bellingcat.com/news/americas/2017/09/01/planet-satellite-imagery-shows-harvey-devastation/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 03, 2017, 01:16:36 AM
At 0500 CST (2100 UTC), Severe Tropical Storm #Mawar was about 200 km SE of Shanwei in Guangdong province. Orange typhoon warnings in effect
https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/904109656297029632
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 03, 2017, 02:33:05 AM
Harvey Aftermath: A Public Health Crisis in the Making
The Gulf Coast faces an evolving public health crisis in the wake of Hurricane Harvey that's likely to unfold over months or even years. Health officials are concerned about everything from immediate injuries and exposure to germs and toxic chemicals to more insidious and long-term threats, including mold in the walls of flooded homes and mental health problems.

Many of those public health concerns match what experts have been warning we'll see more of as climate change brings more severe weather.

When storms hit, they can tip the vulnerable over the edge of danger. A New York Times interactive of requests for help from Houston-area residents offers a snapshot of the wide range of problems that can arise in the midst of a storm, from "on last oxygen tank," to "no food and babies have no milk," to simply "neck deep in water.

"You have to worry about immediate effects like drowning, you have chemical exposures from the refineries around Houston, as well as chemicals from households," said Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College. "You also have to worry about infectious diseases." ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/31082017/hurricane-harvey-health-risks-climate-change-disease-toxic-chemicals-mold
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 03, 2017, 12:53:28 PM
Astonishing amounts of water still in the streets of west Houston today. Hard to believe Harvey made landfall nearly a week ago.
https://twitter.com/passantino/status/903770781943042048

Brief video clip at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on September 03, 2017, 02:25:20 PM
The GFS and Euro 0z model runs both bring a strong cat 4 or 5 system into the North Carolina mainland, late next weekend into 9/11. Florida is also at risk depending on the evolution of the steering currents.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on September 03, 2017, 02:36:41 PM
IRMA

Extract from NHC discussion 16 (my bold of part of extract):-

"the track guidance has shifted westward after 48 hours, delaying a
turn toward the west-northwest, and this required a corresponding
westward shift in the official forecast toward the multi-model
consensus at the end of the forecast period. It should be noted
that the official forecast still lies to the east of some of the
better-performing models, such as the ECMWF, HWRF, and HCCA,
so
additional adjustment are possible in subsequent advisories."

Extract from NHC latest graph of path also shows shift.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 03, 2017, 03:25:35 PM
Mara Lago?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 03, 2017, 05:00:50 PM
Scribbler offers some insight on Irma:

Title: "878 mb Storm Off North Florida — The Model Forecast for Irma that no one Wants to See Happen"

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/09/03/878-mb-storm-off-north-florida-the-model-forecast-for-irma-that-no-one-wants-to-see-happen/

Extract: "Looking beyond the official forecast, some of the our best long range model runs are putting together some seriously scary predictions for Irma. By next week, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model shows Irma as a 878 mb monster hurricane looming about 300 miles off Florida. 878 mb would represent the lowest pressures ever recorded in a hurricane in the Atlantic (The present strongest Atlantic storm was Wilma at 882 mb. The devastating Labor Day Hurricane hit 892 mb.). And it would almost certainly represent the strongest storm in our records ever to venture so far North. 878 mb roughly corresponds with maximum sustained winds in excess of 170 mph and possibly as high as 200 mph or more. And we’ve never seen something like that threatening the Central Atlantic U.S. East Coast in all of the modern era."
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 03, 2017, 05:10:25 PM
TV station in Miami is careful to de-emphasize the large end of the cone near Florida.

Phil Ferro:  Here is the latest forecast track on #Irma
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhilFerro7/status/904356173868085249

Edit:  Miami meteorologist re Irma hitting south Florida:
John Morales: Way too soon to be terrified. We have to wait....
https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/904355147257708544
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 03, 2017, 06:09:53 PM
Eight Atlantic Hurricanes That Start With 'I' Have Been Retired Since 2001
https://weather.com/amp/storms/hurricane/news/i-hurricanes-retired-since-2000.html
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 03, 2017, 06:14:00 PM
Hurricane Harvey’s Impact — And How It Compares To Other Storms
Hurricane Harvey, which dumped an estimated 27 trillion gallons of water on Texas and Louisiana, looks to be one of the most damaging natural disasters in U.S. history. Flooding continues to affect large areas of Houston, Beaumont and other areas of Texas. Tens of thousands have been forced to evacuate their homes, and rig shut downs and evacuations along the Gulf have curbed oil and gas production. The White House, meanwhile, is expected to ask Congress for $14.5 billion in relief funding. While we don’t know Harvey’s ultimate toll on life and property — and won’t for some time — here are the best estimates of the hurricane’s impacts so far, and how they compare to the destruction wrought by other major storms....
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hurricane-harveys-impact-and-how-it-compares-to-other-storms/amp/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: logicmanPatrick on September 03, 2017, 06:40:35 PM
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml)

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SUN SEP 03 2017

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN SEP 03.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON SEP 04.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE SEP 05.

...

...

.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IRMA NEAR 18.2N 61.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT GUSTS 145 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IRMA NEAR 20.4N 67.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IRMA NEAR 22.5N 72.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/22%C2%B030'00.0%22N+72%C2%B000'00.0%22W/@21.0975244,-70.8531945,2279478m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d22.5!4d-72 (https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/22%C2%B030'00.0%22N+72%C2%B000'00.0%22W/@21.0975244,-70.8531945,2279478m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d22.5!4d-72)

Mar a Lago to be eradicated ?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: jai mitchell on September 03, 2017, 06:43:08 PM
 :-[  Very Unfortunately, the most recent long-range models show a westward movement of the North Atlantic high pressure system (Bermuda High) which determines if tropical hurricanes continue their westward path or turn north and east (fish storm). 

This westward movement of the high pressure steering system has locked in a U.S. landfall for Irma.

While the long range models may change significantly and there is a (slight) possibility that large changes may happen going forward, the amount of change that has to happen between now and next Tuesday to allow a miss of the U.S. is so great that it is very unlikely to happen now.

This storm will be a monster in dimension and will likely be a Cat 5 hurricane between now and landfall.  Current models show impact between Florida and Virginia with significant windspeeds (> 100 mph) as far inland as Pittsburgh. 

The water vapor column associated with this storm (and projected central low pressure) are extreme and hourly rainfall totals will likely be unprecedented, though this storm will be a fast moving one, unlike Harvey.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/09/08/1200Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/equirectangular=-58.52,27.78,521/loc=-47.198,41.746
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 03, 2017, 07:05:12 PM
Regardless of exact track, #Irma will serve up monstrous waves along East Coast next weekend. This particular model projects 50-60ft waves!
https://mobile.twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/904368456648314880

Royal Caribbean changed their Allure of the Seas trip from E Caribbean to W Caribbean due to #Irma
https://twitter.com/toweringCU/status/904386473222447104

"Anthem of the Seas watch has been issued."
https://mobile.twitter.com/IrishEagle/status/904384861036785665
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: jai mitchell on September 03, 2017, 07:22:15 PM
this video has a good description of the high pressure steering ridge.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zYym5N9Kfs (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zYym5N9Kfs)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 03, 2017, 07:28:50 PM
Ecological mayhem ensues?


National Weather Service West Gulf River Forecast Center:

#HurricaneHarvey caused such significant flooding the rivers have jumped over watershed boundaries! #txwx #txflood #HarveyFlood #houwx
https://twitter.com/NWSWGRFC/status/904393695750959105

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 03, 2017, 08:09:33 PM
UPDATE: 

EPA says Superfund sites around Houston aren't accessible to its personnel. @AP got to 7 by boat, vehicle, on foot
https://twitter.com/jpacedc/status/904109681806893056

https://apnews.com/27796dd13b9549b0ac76aded58a15122
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Richard Rathbone on September 03, 2017, 11:42:01 PM
Ecological mayhem ensues?


National Weather Service West Gulf River Forecast Center:

#HurricaneHarvey caused such significant flooding the rivers have jumped over watershed boundaries! #txwx #txflood #HarveyFlood #houwx
https://twitter.com/NWSWGRFC/status/904393695750959105
What the San Bernard fish need is a wall, a big beautiful wall to keep those climate refugees from Colorado out.
I can just see the
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 04, 2017, 12:12:29 AM
UPDATE: 

EPA says Superfund sites around Houston aren't accessible to its personnel. @AP got to 7 by boat, vehicle, on foot
https://twitter.com/jpacedc/status/904109681806893056 (https://twitter.com/jpacedc/status/904109681806893056)

https://apnews.com/27796dd13b9549b0ac76aded58a15122 (https://apnews.com/27796dd13b9549b0ac76aded58a15122)


Amazingly unprofessional response from the EPA to the AP Superfund site story:
https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-response-aps-misleading-story (https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-response-aps-misleading-story) 



This EPA statement pushing back on the AP’s reporting is unreal...
https://twitter.com/passantino/status/904404196107194368b (https://twitter.com/passantino/status/904404196107194368b)

The EPA press release links to a Breitbart story blasting the AP’s reporting as “fake news” 
https://twitter.com/passantino/status/904405497071198208 (https://twitter.com/passantino/status/904405497071198208)

This reads like a Breitbart intern creating official US government statements. Which is probably what happened. 
https://twitter.com/teroterotero/status/904405476103909376 (https://twitter.com/teroterotero/status/904405476103909376)

Yes! Total intern job. ( no offense to interns ) but clearly anyone knowledgeable about PR aid away on vacation. #EPA #Harvey 
https://twitter.com/brettaronow/status/904428208837275648 (https://twitter.com/brettaronow/status/904428208837275648)

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 04, 2017, 12:52:23 AM
4pm ET Sunday Sept 3

Eric Holthaus:  Roughly 75% chance now that #Irma will impact the U.S. as a major hurricane. A lot can still change, but trending in the wrong direction now
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/904435606792675329

12z Euro ensembles shifted west from 00z.  Mean is very close to southeast Florida in 7 days. #Irma
https://twitter.com/adriansweather/status/904429657927421953
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on September 04, 2017, 01:42:33 AM
This evening's runs of the specialized hurricane models are showing Irma's central pressure reaching the lowest levels of any cyclone ever on planet earth, at least within human record keeping.  850s while passing over the Bahamas.  We can only hope this is a matter of data error or the simulations being over-aggressive.

Or is this already one of Hansen's "storms of my grandchildren"?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: jai mitchell on September 04, 2017, 01:52:33 AM
Or is this already one of Hansen's "storms of my grandchildren"?

too soon.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on September 04, 2017, 01:59:38 AM
Or is this already one of Hansen's "storms of my grandchildren"?

too soon.

IIRC from his book the hypothesis is boulders were unleashed from the ocean floor near the Bahamas and are exposed on shore?  This storm could certainly not do that, but it is suggestive of challenging the lowest Atlantic or global cyclone pressure.  So maybe a precursor for what is to come, when shear, water temps and steering aloft are all aligned to maximize potential.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on September 04, 2017, 02:12:17 AM
This view from the 18z GFS is simply for demonstrative purposes of what is being shown on the models.  The timing is far out of reliable range and the pressure is likely modeled much too low.  But verbatim, the storm surge would devastate much of the North Carolina coast, not to mention the extremely large wind field, waves, and rain fall wreaking havoc across the SE US.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: logicmanPatrick on September 04, 2017, 02:37:51 AM
UPDATE: 

EPA says Superfund sites around Houston aren't accessible to its personnel. @AP got to 7 by boat, vehicle, on foot
https://twitter.com/jpacedc/status/904109681806893056 (https://twitter.com/jpacedc/status/904109681806893056)

https://apnews.com/27796dd13b9549b0ac76aded58a15122 (https://apnews.com/27796dd13b9549b0ac76aded58a15122)


Amazingly unprofessional response from the EPA to the AP Superfund site story:
https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-response-aps-misleading-story (https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-response-aps-misleading-story) 



This EPA statement pushing back on the AP’s reporting is unreal...
https://twitter.com/passantino/status/904404196107194368b (https://twitter.com/passantino/status/904404196107194368b)

The EPA press release links to a Breitbart story blasting the AP’s reporting as “fake news” 
https://twitter.com/passantino/status/904405497071198208 (https://twitter.com/passantino/status/904405497071198208)

This reads like a Breitbart intern creating official US government statements. Which is probably what happened. 
https://twitter.com/teroterotero/status/904405476103909376 (https://twitter.com/teroterotero/status/904405476103909376)

Yes! Total intern job. ( no offense to interns ) but clearly anyone knowledgeable about PR aid away on vacation. #EPA #Harvey 
https://twitter.com/brettaronow/status/904428208837275648 (https://twitter.com/brettaronow/status/904428208837275648)

Minitrue has been at work.  Those twitter embeds have gone and access is denied on EPA site.

If it isn't available on the web then it never happened, and anyone who says it did is a fake news troll.

Reality control, 1984 style.
For how could you establish even the most obvious fact when there existed no record outside your own memory?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Rob Dekker on September 04, 2017, 02:49:22 AM
Bellingcat published a report with some impressive pre-and-post-Harvey satellite image compares of some of the most affected areas around Houston.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/americas/2017/09/01/planet-satellite-imagery-shows-harvey-devastation/ (https://www.bellingcat.com/news/americas/2017/09/01/planet-satellite-imagery-shows-harvey-devastation/)

All images are nicely dated, placed and sourced.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 04, 2017, 03:10:16 AM
#HurricaneIrma as seen from the old GOES-13 satellite vs the new GOES-16.  The upgrade in image quality is unquestionable
https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/904335820596924416

GIF of old and new satellite loops at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 04, 2017, 03:25:42 AM
"A sign of how South Florida residents are feeling about #Irma. My daughter in the [bottled] water aisle this afternoon... "
https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanNBC6/status/904467707365654528
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: TerryM on September 04, 2017, 03:45:01 AM
Fill up the tub.
Fill up the sinks.
Fill up the car.
Consider a move?


Cute kid who deserves better than dodging storm surges.
Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Andre on September 04, 2017, 06:24:43 AM
The latest (00z Monday) GFS run is catastrophic, to say the least. Unfortunately, the trend over the last few runs which kept shifting the storm further south-west has continued.

Still waiting on the latest ECMWF run to compare...



Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pileus on September 04, 2017, 06:40:31 AM
The latest (00z Monday) GFS run is catastrophic, to say the least. Unfortunately, the trend over the last few runs which kept shifting the storm further south-west has continued.

Still waiting on the latest ECMWF run to compare...

Here's a closer view, in tonight's version of which major American city gets destroyed by Hurricane Irma simulations.

In the last few days NYC, Philly, Baltimore, DC, the Chesapeake Bay watershed, the entire state of North Carolina, and now all of Miami and SE Florida have been featured in doomsday scenarios.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on September 04, 2017, 11:53:33 AM
Extract from NHC discussion 20 follows. Unfortunately supports the shift to the West

"Irma will begin rounding the southwestern edge of the high soon, which will allow
the hurricane to turn westward later today and then west-
northwestward in 36-48 hours.  Down the road, a large mid-latitude
trough is expected to dig southward over the eastern United States
during the next 72 hours, but the global models have been trending
toward quickly lifting the trough out over New England and eastern
Canada on days 4 and 5, with the subtropical ridge building westward
toward Florida.  As a result, it's becoming increasingly likely that
Irma would maintain a west-northwestward heading on days 3 through
5, and the track guidance shifted significantly westward on this
cycle during that period.  Remarkably, the track models are very
tightly clustered through day 5, which increases the confidence in
the westward shift of the latest NHC forecast.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 04, 2017, 01:14:39 PM
Hurricane hunter plane's Monday morning pass:

4:57 AM EDT — #Irma is looking very healthy this morning from NOAA P3 on-board radar. About to get our first center pass now.
https://twitter.com/alexjlamers/status/904630932761694208

5:04 AM EDT - Morning radar scan from inside #Irma's eye.
https://twitter.com/alexjlamers/status/904633831940120577

6:44 AM EDT - Second center drop splashed at 948mb with 10kt wind. Likely ~947mb in #Irma now. Pressure continuing to fall.
https://twitter.com/alexjlamers/status/904658007019188225

Today is a big day for #Irma recon. 6-hour fixes start at 18Z - combo of USAF and NOAA flights. Plus NOAA G-IV synoptic mission.
https://twitter.com/alexjlamers/status/904615431968874496
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: be cause on September 04, 2017, 01:41:29 PM
the gfs 0600 forecast has Irma leaving Cuba and then travelling North the length of Florida while seeming to lose little of her intensity . Is mother nature attempting yo wake her wayward son in the White House ?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 04, 2017, 03:57:19 PM
With GFS too inaccurate still for giving more details about the US East coast scenario with Irma, it is becoming more likely Cuba will be struck all over pretty much.
It would be nice if she left Haïti alone...
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 04, 2017, 04:00:11 PM
A 'Mega Ensemble' of sorts here with all 122 Ensemble member probability of #Irma's location. #Bahamas likely to be impacted, then ?
https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/904695361285103616

Here is the probability graphic, using the GFS, ECWMF, Canadian, and NAVGEM and all their ensemble members. #Irma
https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/904647775194935296
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 04, 2017, 04:14:36 PM
FEMA Spokesperson re Harvey aid:

#Harvey - So far we've approved +176k survivors for $141M in assistance DisasterAssistance.gov, FEMA App, in person http://asd.fema.gov/inter/locator/home.htm (http://asd.fema.gov/inter/locator/home.htm)
https://twitter.com/femaspox/status/904705512930992128
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 04, 2017, 04:29:54 PM
Will Irma pass through the Herbert Box?

John Morales:  Yes.
https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/904701239065227264


Hebert Box
A Hebert Box (pronounced AY-bear, also known as Hebert's Box) is one of two regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean that are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida, USA. They are named for former National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center forecaster Paul Hebert, who observed in the late 1970s that most strong hurricanes (characterized as those with winds exceeding 110 miles per hour (177 km/h)) which had struck South Florida since 1900 had also passed through one of these two small 335-mile-by-335-mile (517-km-by-517-km) square geographic regions.[1]

Examples include unnamed hurricanes in 1926, 1928, 1933, and 1935, as well as the major hurricanes Donna and Betsy, all of which came through an Hebert Box. Collectively these storms killed more than 2,000 people in Florida. Conversely, storms such as the major hurricanes Floyd and Gert in 1999, which both were headed for Florida at one point, missed the Hebert Boxes and turned away from Florida at the last minute.[1]
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 04, 2017, 05:00:02 PM
Some weather models are not like the others.  ;D


By popular request here it is with NAVGEM removed. Just NCEP/ECMWF/CMC Should be that way going forward
https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/904712855160844288
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: logicmanPatrick on September 04, 2017, 05:31:21 PM
Good article in Forbes from Marshall Shepherd (https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2017/09/04/the-national-hurricane-center-is-a-trusted-source-as-worrisome-hurricane-irma-looms/#24e98afc53d0)

Ok folks, I am officially concerned, and I usually try to be measured. It is Labor Day, and many people are enjoying the day off. There is a group of professionals, however, that is working very hard today as the increasingly worrisome threat of Hurricane Irma looms.

(https://blogs-images.forbes.com/marshallshepherd/files/2017/09/090051_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.jpg?width=960)

Hurricane Irma is a grave threat to residents in the Caribbean region and looks to be an equally worrisome threat for the contiguous United States. Irma is a category 3 hurricane and just to the east of Leeward Islands where hurricane watches have been issued. The latest 5-day forecast (above) is ominous, and I have distilled some important points from the 5:00 am AST NHC forecast discussion, (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1 shtml/040854.shtml?)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 04, 2017, 06:43:08 PM
Experimental Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds
Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time: the primary graphic, which identifies the time window that users at individual locations can safely assume will be free from tropical-storm-force winds. Specifically, this is the time before which there is no more than a 1-in-10 (10 percent) chance of seeing the onset of sustained tropical-storm-force winds – the period during which preparations should ideally be completed for those with a low tolerance for risk.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145912.shtml?mltoa34#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145912.shtml?mltoa34#contents)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 04, 2017, 11:17:30 PM
Talk about horrifying projections, here is today's 12z GFS projection for Irma making landfall near Miami with a central pressure of 890 mb on Sept 10 2017:
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 04, 2017, 11:28:33 PM
“I have declared a state of emergency for every county in Florida to make certain that state, federal and local governments are able to work together and make sure resources are dispersed to local communities as we get prepared for this storm.”

Florida Declares State of Emergency Ahead of Irma
http://www.weatherboy.com/florida-declares-state-emergency-ahead-irma/ (http://www.weatherboy.com/florida-declares-state-emergency-ahead-irma/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on September 05, 2017, 12:29:34 AM
Talk about horrifying projections
Indeed. The projection is enlarged slightly below. The eye appears at the junction of Key Largo and and mainland. The Homestead air force base is 6 miles ENE of town.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2017, 01:21:07 AM
Hurricane evacuations called primarily for storm surge threat. #Florida has the most population at risk for potential surge via @NHC_Surge.
https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/904840888165289984

#2: New York
#3: New Jersey
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2017, 03:18:31 AM
Just about all of the generally reliable guidance keep #Irma as a category 4 #hurricane for the next 5 days- Super rare Atlantic forecast!
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/904874961344626688
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on September 05, 2017, 11:02:56 AM
IRMA - I am reminded of Marlon Brando as Jor-El: Superman's biological father on Krypton. He has a theory about the planet exploding, yet the Council refuses to listen.

Trump, Pruitt, Lamar Smith, Perry need to take a vacation next weekend, maybe extended  into Tuesday, at Mar-a-Lago.

From NHC Discussion 24
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 16.6N  57.0W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 17.0N  58.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 17.7N  61.5W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 18.6N  64.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 19.6N  67.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 21.2N  72.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 22.4N  77.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 24.0N  81.0W  115 KT 130 MPH

ps: Looks like another one is to follow about 2-3 days behind.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: be cause on September 05, 2017, 11:17:03 AM
Looks like TS Jose has it's eyes on the east coast .. as a major hurricane . Three in a row .. a $trillion in damage .. weather obviously . After 142 months nature is leaving donald an impressive calling card ..
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Gray-Wolf on September 05, 2017, 02:01:15 PM
Oh my! Cat 5 when the hurricane hunters got to her!!!

GFS have her entering Florida at the keys and then rolling north through all of the state maintaining major status as she goes?

Then we have the chance of Jose forming later today and that appears aimed at east coast USA!!!

Maybe donald needs a trip to his weekend home this weekend???
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2017, 02:02:12 PM
Unfortunately the 00Z Euro (ECMWF) is in good agreement with the GFS; very dangerous Hurricane Irma moving up the Florida Peninsula Sunday.
https://mobile.twitter.com/spann/status/905011082120613888
Animation at the link.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2017, 02:05:12 PM
Now is the time to prepare for #HurricaneIrma and to get #HurricaneStrong with these “How-To” videos and checklists.
http://flash.org/protect.php (http://flash.org/protect.php)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: oren on September 05, 2017, 02:49:31 PM
This Irma is a real monster. Every time the NHC forecast mild strengthening it jumps up a category.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Gray-Wolf on September 05, 2017, 03:16:03 PM
This Irma is a real monster. Every time the NHC forecast mild strengthening it jumps up a category.

Well she has run out of categories now!!!

Are we to see the Pacific behaviour of 'Super Typhoon' now transfer into our Basin ( Atlantic)?

Already Irma is entering another EWRC ( 5th or 6th since she hit cat one??) and being Cat 5 the only way she can strengthen further is to grow in size. Irma is now entering the area you expect to see storm rapidly intensify over so just how big will she end up? We've seen some SciFi  modelled pressures but now I have to wonder if we will see all storm records broken by her???

You cannot evacuate Florida and , as a giant retirement home, there are special needs to be catered for across the state. Trump picked the wrong year to plunder FEMA funding I feel?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: RikW on September 05, 2017, 03:47:33 PM
Let's just hope that the same will happen as the Arctic did, dodging a bullet...

Seeing this I'm relieved that I'm living in the Netherlands where we don't have hurricane's...
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2017, 04:50:19 PM
Irma is now one of the strongest hurricanes in history.

#Irma is the 17th hurricane in the Atlantic on record to have max winds >= 175 mph. Atlantic max wind record is Allen (1980) at 190 mph.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905042432286277632

#Irma has now generated more Accumulated Cyclone Energy during her lifetime than did Hurricane Katrina (2005).
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/904914235183906816

Image below;  GIF at the links.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2017, 04:58:04 PM
Radar simulation from NOAA's flagship hurricane model (HWRF) for Category 5 Hurricane #Irma for next 5-days.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905078934194278405

GIF at the lnk.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: crandles on September 05, 2017, 05:02:53 PM
Irma is now one of the strongest hurricanes in history.

#Irma is the 17th hurricane in the Atlantic on record to have max winds >= 175 mph. Atlantic max wind record is Allen (1980) at 190 mph.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905042432286277632

Now 180 mph making 7th strongest Edit 7th to reach that strength 5th= strongest
Allen___ 1980   190   305
"Labor Day" 1935 185 295
Gilbert__ 1988   185   295
Wilma__  2005   185   295
Mitch___ 1998   180   285
Rita____ 2005   180   285
Irma___ 2017   180   285
Janet___ 1955   175   280

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records#By_highest_sustained_winds

(Table there only lists 16 storms including Irma to reach 175mph so is there a missing storm in list or was Irma 16th to reach >= 175? )
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2017, 05:09:22 PM
Irma is now one of the strongest hurricanes in history.

#Irma is the 17th hurricane in the Atlantic on record to have max winds >= 175 mph. Atlantic max wind record is Allen (1980) at 190 mph.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905042432286277632

Now 180 mph making 7th strongest
Allen___ 1980   190   305
"Labor Day" 1935 185 295
Gilbert__ 1988   185   295
Wilma__  2005   185   295
Mitch___ 1998   180   285
Rita____ 2005   180   285
Irma___ 2017   180   285
Janet___ 1955   175   280

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records#By_highest_sustained_winds

(Table there only lists 16 storms including Irma to reach 175mph so is there a missing storm in list or was Irma 16th to reach >= 175? )


"Only four hurricanes in history were stronger."
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2017, 05:13:55 PM
NHC Update, 11am:
Hurricane Irma is now a high-end Category 5, a potentially catastrophic superstorm. Should remain Cat 4/5 til Cuba/Florida
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905084559083130884

Islands directly in the path of Irma:

Barbuda
St. Barts
Sint Maarten
Anguilla
Anegada
Virgin Gorda
Tortola
St. John

Expect Cat 5 damage.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905085974279049217
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2017, 05:19:17 PM
Regardless of exact track, #Irma will serve up monstrous waves along East Coast next weekend. This particular model projects 50-60ft waves!
https://mobile.twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/904368456648314880

Royal Caribbean changed their Allure of the Seas trip from E Caribbean to W Caribbean due to #Irma
https://twitter.com/toweringCU/status/904386473222447104

"Anthem of the Seas watch has been issued."
https://mobile.twitter.com/IrishEagle/status/904384861036785665

Update:

Allure of the Seas has arrived in Cozumel, Mexico.

Anthem of the Seas was in Maine; is now in Saint John, Canada.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2017, 05:25:05 PM
National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Ops:
#Irma is the strongest #hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea & Gulf of Mexico in NHC records hurricanes.gov
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/905080927948349440

Hurricane #Irma has maximized its potential intensity with ~29.5°C ocean water. Will continue over warmer water over 30°C as approaches FL
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/905087522392428544
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 05, 2017, 05:29:31 PM
Here is a Nullschool forecast issued today of surface winds on Sept 9th showing the locations of both Hurricanes Irma and Jose, lined up to deliver a one-two punch to the US:
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2017, 05:41:22 PM
Hurricane Irma is so strong it's starting to show up on seismometers in the Caribbean -- equipment designed to measure earthquakes.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905092034863693825

Seismometer recordings from the past 48 hours on Guadeloupe show Cat. 5 #Hurricane #Irma driving closer toward the Lesser Antilles
https://twitter.com/seismo_steve/status/905049088642703362



This part of the Caribbean has never experienced a hurricane as strong as Irma.
It will be the new storm of record for those in its path.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905092679620583425

Plotting all Atlantic hurricanes from 1851-2016 with sustained winds >= 180 mph... Irma is well outside of the record.
https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/905081031593689089
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2017, 05:44:47 PM
If there were a Category 6, Irma would be almost there.

Hurricane #Irma is still intensifying.  Now up to 155-knots (180 mph)
Extrapolating Saffir-Simpson scale, 158-knots would be Category 6.
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/905082211443015680
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2017, 05:50:27 PM
(U.S.)  National Center for Atmospheric Research:

Our new hurricane rating index, which measures ability to cause damage (not just wind speed), rated Irma a 5.3, higher than Harvey's 5.2.
https://twitter.com/atmosnews/status/905093939966988288

For reference, Katrina (rated retrospectively) was a 4.9
https://twitter.com/atmosnews/status/905094580743413761
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on September 05, 2017, 06:15:48 PM
Puerto Rico is a US Territory and the least able to deal with Irma.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: jai mitchell on September 05, 2017, 06:44:37 PM
Central Pressure Irma measured at 927mb


Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2017, 06:45:01 PM
Mandatory evacuation of the Florida Keys due to Hurricane #Irma will begin at sunrise Wednesday morning.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905107613720948736

The hurricane force winds in #Irma are wider than Florida. You won’t need a direct hit to get Wilma-type winds & storm surge on both coasts.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905100441658195971

tfw there might not be anywhere to evacuate to.
Current forecast has Irma traveling north, up the length of Florida
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905100441658195971
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2017, 06:56:32 PM
Look at the crashing waves currently in Melville Hall, Dominica. The center of Irma is still more than 200 miles away
https://twitter.com/jamaicaweather/status/905109252850806789

Other photos at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2017, 07:02:40 PM
Hurricane Harvey:  Arkema/pollution update.

Arkema Ignites Remaining Trailers at Texas Chemical Site, Evacuation Zone Lifted
https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/hurricane-harvey/arkema-blow-remaining-trailers-texas-chemical-site-so-work-can-n798486 (https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/hurricane-harvey/arkema-blow-remaining-trailers-texas-chemical-site-so-work-can-n798486)

Crosby residents return home after trouble at Arkema plant
http://www.khou.com/amp/news/local/crosby-residents-return-home-after-trouble-at-arkema-plant/470774613 (http://www.khou.com/amp/news/local/crosby-residents-return-home-after-trouble-at-arkema-plant/470774613)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: jai mitchell on September 05, 2017, 08:00:55 PM
Central Pressure 926 sustained maximum wind speeds 185 mph

from the weather channel twitter:
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/905127057776144384
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Paddy on September 05, 2017, 08:41:40 PM
Here is a Nullschool forecast issued today of surface winds on Sept 9th showing the locations of both Hurricanes Irma and Jose, lined up to deliver a one-two punch to the US:

Not just to the US, but also to many Caribbean countries significantly less well equipped to respond to it :-S
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2017, 09:10:45 PM
Pretty good clustering of tracks in 12z GFS ensembles. All signs continue to point toward major Florida effects.
https://twitter.com/spacecitywx/status/905117592683257856
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2017, 09:16:44 PM
"The danger of a Category 5 hurricane doesn’t only come from the strong winds. Irma is expected to raise sea levels by as much as seven to 11 feet in the Leeward Islands because of the storm surge and waves. Similar flooding could be seen in the British and US Virgin Islands, while Puerto Rico could see sea levels rise by one to four feet. Irma could also pour four to eight inches of rain, or as much as 12 inches in certain areas. “These rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,” the National Hurricane Center said."
https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/5/16254858/hurricane-irma-category-5-forecasts (https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/5/16254858/hurricane-irma-category-5-forecasts)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2017, 09:20:49 PM
Miami Mayor:  We may be asking residents in zones A & B to begin evacuating as early as tomorrow. Find out in which zone you live: miamidade.gov
https://twitter.com/mayorgimenez/status/905136879405862913

Some folks having trouble with site here is pic of zone map
https://twitter.com/johnalemanmb/status/905141787349659649

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2017, 09:32:25 PM
If it were even possible, eye continues to become better defined, & eyewall cloud tops are cooling.
#Irma testing theoretical max intensity
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/905145697657290754

Eye continues to warm now +20°C ... if convection flares or clouds cool (more pink) then Hurricane #Irma should reach 200 mph.
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/905144773643816960
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2017, 09:36:45 PM
NHC:
Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time: the primary graphic, which identifies the time window that users at individual locations can safely assume will be free from tropical-storm-force winds. Specifically, this is the time before which there is no more than a 1-in-10 (10 percent) chance of seeing the onset of sustained tropical-storm-force winds – the period during which preparations should ideally be completed for those with a low tolerance for risk.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145912.shtml?mltoa34#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145912.shtml?mltoa34#contents)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2017, 09:39:15 PM
FEMA Region 2:
Virginia USAR Water Rescue, HAZMAT & collapsed structures arrive at Muñiz Air Nat’l Guard Base, P.R., to assist during Hurricane #Irma.
https://mobile.twitter.com/femaregion2/status/905147164497674241
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2017, 09:48:43 PM
Wow. Hurricane #Irma is now expected to *exceed* the theoretical maximum intensity for a storm in its environment. Redefining the rules.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905154639242387461

18z SHIPS file for #IRMA has Irma at its potential intensity and exceeding it in 6 hours, good time to review how this quantity calculated
https://twitter.com/kieranbhatia/status/905152863046955009
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 05, 2017, 10:49:09 PM
It does seem like Hansen et al (2016)'s theory that super hurricanes roller boulders from the seafloor on to an island in the Bahamas is supported by Irma's record breaking behavior:

James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Paul Hearty, Reto Ruedy, Maxwell Kelley, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Gary Russell, George Tselioudis, Junji Cao, Eric Rignot, Isabella Velicogna, Blair Tormey, Bailey Donovan, Evgeniya Kandiano, Karina von Schuckmann, Pushker Kharecha, Allegra N. Legrande, Michael Bauer, and Kwok-Wai Lo (2016), "Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous", Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761-3812, doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016

http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016.html (http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016.html)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 12:35:29 AM
A few notes from various weather outlets:



Mike Bettes, The Weather Channel, re Irma winds:  “You’re basically talking a 60-mile wide, F4 tornado.”



Friends around Miami, I need some help. I have an older cat that I'm trying to find a home for while I work Irma. Any ideas, pls let me know
https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/905094672309243906

Thanks to everyone who helped me out when I really needed it. Kitty has a safe place to stay.
https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/905151295467741188



Antigua Met Service:
There're staff members of the #MetOffice who were unable to get plywood to secure their homes; we are seeking assistance from anyone who has
https://twitter.com/anumetservice/status/905145828670660612
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 06, 2017, 12:38:22 AM
Scribbler adds color to many of the points already made in this thread about Irma:

Title: "Second Strongest Atlantic Hurricane on Record — Dangerous 185 MPH Irma Defies Intensity Projections"

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/09/05/second-strongest-atlantic-hurricane-on-record-dangerous-185-mph-irma-defies-intensity-projections/

Extract: "Irma appears to be very efficiently tapping warmer than normal sea surfaces and a moister than normal atmosphere in order to spike its peak intensity. Two conditions set in play by human-caused climate change that are now helping to make storms like Irma both more intense and more dangerous. And it’s a condition that we need to take into account as we follow the track of Irma toward U.S. shores."
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 12:39:39 AM
Back-to-back retired Atlantic #hurricane names have happened in 6 different years since 1954, including 3 straight from 2003-2005. #Irma
https://mobile.twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/905197902380847104
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 12:42:41 AM
Ridiculous high resolution #VIIRS IR image of #Irma from this afternoon at 1704 UTC
https://mobile.twitter.com/DanLindsey77/status/905190778351132672
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 12:54:08 AM
From the Florida governor’s press conference:
Florida has stopped collecting road tolls, to ease evacuation efforts.  Next step would be to allow driving on outbound highway shoulders, which keeps inbound lanes open for pre-positioning supplies and relief efforts.  Last step is contra-flow (making all lanes the same, outbound direction).

Repeated directive:  Get ready Now.  Listen for local evacuation orders.

Images from the NHC 5 pm ET update.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: jai mitchell on September 06, 2017, 12:56:13 AM
null school is showing a worst-case miami scenario with cat 4 wind speeds for a few hours

and

9.6 meter wave height (not including storm surge estimated to be 7-12 feet)
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/09/10/1200Z/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=significant_wave_height/orthographic=-84.91,27.58,3000/loc=-79.943,26.220

Edit: not sure now, this looks to be much bigger than current wave heights so maybe it does include storm surge of up to 3 meters.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 01:10:20 AM
Tropical Depression 13 has formed in the SW Gulf of Mexico. People in the state of Veracruz should monitor closely  hurricanes.gov
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/905171545437474816
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 01:27:34 AM
Another reason not to stay in a high rise in a hurricane: if you go up 25 floors you buy yourself winds another category stronger.
https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/905198922494291968
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: wili on September 06, 2017, 02:10:13 AM
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/052342.shtml (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/052342.shtml)

Pressure down to 916...which should correspond to sustained winds at around 225 mph! But official wind speed is still 185. Thoughts?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 03:01:22 AM
Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH)

Our Caribbean Wave Watch Model generates high resolution wave forecasts for the region. You can check projected wave heights during the passage of Hurricane Irma and Tropical Storm Jose through the model at: http://ww3.cimh.edu.bb/0000z-ww3-outputs/ (http://ww3.cimh.edu.bb/0000z-ww3-outputs/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: jai mitchell on September 06, 2017, 03:38:25 AM
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/052342.shtml (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/052342.shtml)

Pressure down to 916...which should correspond to sustained winds at around 225 mph! But official wind speed is still 185. Thoughts?

Hurricane is passing through a very favorable region of pressure gradient in the upper atmosphere, this somewhat inflates the difference in the central pressure drop.  At least that is what some guy on the internet said. . . but I expect it to continue to intensify.  Models had central pressure going below 900 mb.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: wili on September 06, 2017, 04:22:06 AM
Thanks, jai. Jeff Masters had claimed that some of the models showing the pressure going down that low should be ignored (the pressure part at least) because of faults in the models. But I'm pretty sure the actual numbers recently have been coming in lower than any of the model predictions, so who knows.

Ventrice: "...50% chance for Major Hurricane Force Winds from #Irma Sunday-Monday in #Miami"

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/905241504716918784?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefault%26f%3Dwund%26t_i%3Dwww%252Fcat6%252Fextremely-dangerous-cat-5-irma-storms-leeward-islands%26t_u%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.wunderground.com%252Fcat6%252Fextremely-dangerous-cat-5-irma-storms-leeward-islands%26t_e%3DExtremely%2520Dangerous%2520Cat%25205%2520Irma%2520Storms%2520into%2520Leeward%2520Islands%2520by%2520Bob%2520Henson%2520%257C%2520Category%25206%26t_d%3DExtremely%2520Dangerous%2520Cat%25205%2520Irma%2520Storms%2520into%2520Leeward%2520Islands%2520by%2520Bob%2520Henson%2520%257C%2520Category%25206%2520%257C%2520Weather%2520Underground%26t_t%3DExtremely%2520Dangerous%2520Cat%25205%2520Irma%2520Storms%2520into%2520Leeward%2520Islands%2520by%2520Bob%2520Henson%2520%257C%2520Category%25206%26s_o%3Ddefault%23version%3D6f5768194208e9ee5ea7d3e7ec8ac168 (https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/905241504716918784?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefault%26f%3Dwund%26t_i%3Dwww%252Fcat6%252Fextremely-dangerous-cat-5-irma-storms-leeward-islands%26t_u%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.wunderground.com%252Fcat6%252Fextremely-dangerous-cat-5-irma-storms-leeward-islands%26t_e%3DExtremely%2520Dangerous%2520Cat%25205%2520Irma%2520Storms%2520into%2520Leeward%2520Islands%2520by%2520Bob%2520Henson%2520%257C%2520Category%25206%26t_d%3DExtremely%2520Dangerous%2520Cat%25205%2520Irma%2520Storms%2520into%2520Leeward%2520Islands%2520by%2520Bob%2520Henson%2520%257C%2520Category%25206%2520%257C%2520Weather%2520Underground%26t_t%3DExtremely%2520Dangerous%2520Cat%25205%2520Irma%2520Storms%2520into%2520Leeward%2520Islands%2520by%2520Bob%2520Henson%2520%257C%2520Category%25206%26s_o%3Ddefault%23version%3D6f5768194208e9ee5ea7d3e7ec8ac168)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Csnavywx on September 06, 2017, 06:36:47 AM
Winds are all about the pressure gradient, not necessarily the central pressure.

The wind/pressure relationship tables are just a rule of thumb.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: TerryM on September 06, 2017, 06:42:55 AM
Winds are all about the pressure gradient, not necessarily the central pressure.

The wind/pressure relationship tables are just a rule of thumb.


Is this going to be as bad as the forecasts?
Should Floridians flee?


Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: wili on September 06, 2017, 07:13:03 AM
The tiny island of Barbuda is now in the eye, apparently. If anyone survives and has means to transmit, perhaps by dawn we'll have pictures of just what kind of damage this thing can do.

Last recorded wind speeds were getting up to the 130 mph range.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 06, 2017, 08:34:11 AM
Irma's almost a cat6 by my wind speed scale too. http://erimaassa.blogspot.fi/2013/11/haiyan-scale.html?m=1 (http://erimaassa.blogspot.fi/2013/11/haiyan-scale.html?m=1)
Afaik, so far none of these have landed at this speed, so we don't know the remaining structures. I guess Haiyan/yolanda landed as a high-end Cat5.

Latest from here: the eye has crossed Barbuda. If there are still working transmitters there might be some photos later today...
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Herfried on September 06, 2017, 10:05:40 AM
The first landfall of the northern Eyewall at the southern tip of eastern Samar was at peak intensity of Haiyan / Yolanda. Even the sturdy palm trees were all broken and leveled. While it was hard to assess weather the horrific and total damage was done b wind or by crashing waves of the surge, it was absolutely resembling F3/4/5 tornado damage.
Guiuan was entirely wiped from the landscape... just picture google Guiuan Haiyan. Looks a lot like Moore, OK, 2013.

Also Irma did hit an Island - Barbados - at her (yet) üeak intensity. Which is still 10 mph shy of Haiyan.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Paddy on September 06, 2017, 11:30:21 AM

Is this going to be as bad as the forecasts?
Should Floridians flee?


Terry


The forecasts cover a range of possible outcomes, and the  hurricane plus associated storm surge aren't due for a while yet. But yes, the safest course would be to flee, and the bare minimum would be to be ready to flee as soon as the evac order is given.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: GeoffBeacon on September 06, 2017, 11:37:57 AM
Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis (https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-es-13-tropical-cyclones.html) said

Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes and Typhoons)

Mid-latitude Storms
Model projections show fewer mid-latitude storms averaged over each hemisphere, associated with the poleward shift of the storm tracks that is particularly notable in the Southern Hemisphere, with lower central pressures for these poleward-shifted storms.

Is the prediction, "fewer mid-latitude storms", from 2007 still valid or have the changes in the jet stream due to Arctic warming changed the story?

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: crandles on September 06, 2017, 12:31:03 PM
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/052342.shtml (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/052342.shtml)

Pressure down to 916...which should correspond to sustained winds at around 225 mph! But official wind speed is still 185. Thoughts?

Highest sustained windspeed measured in Atlantic is 190mph with pressure of 899. There have been 5 with pressure below 900. Irma is equal second strongest for sustained windspeed but nowhere near top 11 for pressure/intensity. That rule of thumb seems wrong for intense hurricanes.

The question is how the windspeed was so high for the pressure not why the windspeed isn't higher.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 01:22:24 PM
NHC Atlantic Ops:
5 AM AST forecast and key messages for Hurricane #Irma.    Go to hurricanes.gov  for the latest forecast.
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/905358608447221761
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 01:27:04 PM
#IRMA made landfall on #Barbuda w/ winds of 160 knots. This ties IRMA with 1935 Labor Day #Hurricane in FL for strongest Atlantic landfall.
https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/905333341427187713

Brief video: Saint Martin in the eye just before 7a EDT  #HurricaneIrma #Irma
[IRMA] Saint Martin dans le mur de l'oeil subit les effets de l'ouragan IRMA #iram #ouragan #SaintMartin (Source : Rinsy Xieng)
https://twitter.com/RCI_GP/status/905381154970329088
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 01:39:41 PM
Tweeted an hour ago:
#Irma now has the lowest pressure (914 mb) on record outside of the Gulf of Mexico or western Caribbean in the satellite era (since 1966) 😳
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/905374525331841024

515AM Sunrise over cat 5 #Irma (185mph, 914mb) on IR and VIS bands from GOES-16
https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/905333341427187713
Satellite GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 01:44:36 PM
Seeing some serious consensus in overnight in an east FL, Carolina impact. Have not seen this consensus yet with #Irma. Have a plan.
https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/905381941398171648

Some discussion last evening about how 18Z GFS was well east of ensemble track. No longer the case on 00Z run. Clear shift eastward.
https://twitter.com/GarySzatkowski/status/905392084861014016
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 04:24:26 PM
Space Weather!

Major X9.3 solar flare! Any coronal mass ejection from this event may cause additional intense geomagnetic storming in the next 48 hrs!
https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/905429600741847040


[Coronal Mass Ejection] produced by M5.5 solar flare on September 4, 2017 is heading toward Earth and is expected to arrive later today (September 6). A G3 - Strong geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for September 6 and 7
https://watchers.news/2017/09/06/x-class-solar-flare-september-6-2017-cme-produced-strongest-flare-of-solar-cycle-24/


I'm having trouble getting to the NWS Space Weather warnings -- the site may be overwhelmed.
If a CME arrives at Earth, it can produce a geomagnetic storm, which, in turn, can cause anomalies and disruptions to the modern conveniences we have come to rely on. For example, fluctuating magnetic fields associated with these storms induce currents in long wires like power lines, potentially leading to wide-spread blackouts in extreme cases. On March 13, 1989, a powerful geomagnetic storm triggered a major power blackout in Canada that left 6 million people without electricity for 9 hours. According to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the flare disrupted electric power transmission from the Hydro Quebec generating station and even damaged some power transformers in New Jersey. Power outages due to space weather are rare events, but evidence suggests that significant effects could occur. Significant power outages may have cascading effects, causing loss of:

Water and wastewater distribution systems
Perishable foods and medications
Heating/air conditioning and electrical lighting systems
Computer systems, telephone systems, and communications systems (including disruptions in airline flights, satellite networks and GPS services)
Public transportation systems
Fuel distribution systems and fuel pipelines
All electrical systems that do not have back-up power
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 04:43:51 PM
We are in an X9.3-flare folks! Largest of this #solar cycle! Massive #hamradio blackout. #GPS issues too on dayside of Earth (colors in map)
https://twitter.com/tamithaskov/status/905439724021485568 (https://twitter.com/tamithaskov/status/905439724021485568)

Images 2 and 3 are from the SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER page.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 05:03:04 PM
NHC Update, 11am:
Irma now approaching Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as a potentially catastrophic Category 5.
Florida track shifted east.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905445387196129281
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 05:55:08 PM
Many tiny islands have taken a direct hit from #Irma. Put together a map of the region with the storm's path highlighting nearby islands.
https://twitter.com/cyclonebiskit/status/905456139793567744
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 05:57:32 PM
"limit" on intensity of hurricane windspeeds increases about 18 mph per degree C of SST warming

The limiting intensity of North Atlantic hurricanes scales at about 8 m/s per degree (C) of warming. http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerStrazzoJaggerLaRowZhao2013.pdf (http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerStrazzoJaggerLaRowZhao2013.pdf)

https://twitter.com/jbelsner/status/905405940631052289 (https://twitter.com/jbelsner/status/905405940631052289)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 06:01:03 PM
Jaw-dropping GIF at the link.

Another day, another amazing/scary/beautiful #GOES16 VIS loop of #HurricaneIrma
https://twitter.com/danlindsey77/status/905444524142579712
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 06:03:47 PM
Latest (12Z) GFS has shifted back west, toward Florida.
Expect further small fluctuations in Irma's forecast track. Meteorology is hard.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905460894288764928
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 06:04:57 PM
As #IrmaHurricane steadily moves WNW, storm will encounter some of warmest ocean water in tropics on Earth especially around S. Florida
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/905459393852043264
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Archimid on September 06, 2017, 06:05:21 PM
Well, I did all I could have done to prepare, except for trimming my front yard trees. Now is time to lock down the hatches and ride the storm. I expect wind of up to 85 MPH in my location. I think I'll be ok. I took some before pictures of areas I think vulnerable. Hopefully, I can get you some after pics.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 06:17:11 PM
Well, I did all I could have done to prepare, except for trimming my front yard trees. Now is time to lock down the hatches and ride the storm. I expect wind of up to 85 MPH in my location. I think I'll be ok. I took some before pictures of areas I think vulnerable. Hopefully, I can get you some after pics.

Sorry, Archimid.  Such bad post timing! :-[ :o :'(
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 06:21:59 PM
Even with track shifting east a bit we need to talk heavy rain among other impacts with #Irma - all the way into western North Carolina!
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ginger_Zee/status/905457002398273537


This is the long line for sandbags on Miami Beach. Stretches blocks and blocks. #HurricaneIrma @wsvn
https://twitter.com/brianentin/status/905439409952182273
Video at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 06:22:53 PM
Astonishing video starting to come in of cat 5 Irma winds in Barbados
https://twitter.com/Read4Ks/status/905257372066750466
Happens to be from a tornado last year... ignore.

That makes a lot of sense.  Will delete!!!

But still: sorry, Archimid....
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Archimid on September 06, 2017, 06:31:51 PM
Oh no, Sigmetnow. I thank you with all my heart for the job you have done on this thread. This has been my go to place for reliable info. Thanks to it, I started scheduled last minute preparations early and had plenty of time to tighten up the place.

I admit, it is scary. I'm not sure what to expect, the eye will pass 60 miles to my North over the next 24 hours. My biggest vulnerability is created by my own trees. They held up during hurricanes Hugo and George, so I'm hoping they hold again.  My other worry are my windows. My house is made out of concrete but the windows are a weak point. The next 24 hours might be very long.

The next few weeks and months will probably suck. No power, no water and probably significant cleanup and rebuilding. But whatever. I'm ready.  8) 8)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 06:32:14 PM
What Miami, Florida TV is showing:

Here is the latest forecast track on #Irma
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhilFerro7/status/905460865998213122
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 06:41:01 PM
Oh no, Sigmetnow. I thank you with all my heart for the job you have done on this thread. This has been my go to place for reliable info. Thanks to it, I started scheduled last minute preparations early and had plenty of time to tighten up the place.

I admit, it is scary. I'm not sure what to expect, the eye will pass 60 miles to my North over the next 24 hours. My biggest vulnerability is created by my own trees. They held up during hurricanes Hugo and George, so I'm hoping they hold again.  My other worry are my windows. My house is made out of concrete but the windows are a weak point. The next 24 hours might be very long.

The next few weeks and months will probably suck. No power, no water and probably significant cleanup and rebuilding. But whatever. I'm ready.  8) 8)

 I will be thinking of you!

I limit what I post elsewhere for people who have friends and relatives in Florida, to give them just the essentials -- what they or their friends need to know... without, I hope, scaring them too much.  :o
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: oren on September 06, 2017, 06:52:14 PM
Oh no, Sigmetnow. I thank you with all my heart for the job you have done on this thread. This has been my go to place for reliable info. Thanks to it, I started scheduled last minute preparations early and had plenty of time to tighten up the place.

I admit, it is scary. I'm not sure what to expect, the eye will pass 60 miles to my North over the next 24 hours. My biggest vulnerability is created by my own trees. They held up during hurricanes Hugo and George, so I'm hoping they hold again.  My other worry are my windows. My house is made out of concrete but the windows are a weak point. The next 24 hours might be very long.

The next few weeks and months will probably suck. No power, no water and probably significant cleanup and rebuilding. But whatever. I'm ready.  8) 8)
Good luck Archimid! A concrete house is great. It will keep you safe, the rest are details.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Archimid on September 06, 2017, 06:53:06 PM
Don't hold back for me! That's why hang around here.  ;D  Nothing scarier than watching the Arctic disappear right in front my eyes, so post away. I really can't overstate the wonderful job you are doing.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 07:00:32 PM
Shocking: Power utility company in Puerto Rico estimates Island will be without electricity for "4 to 6 months."
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article171465667.html (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article171465667.html)

Here's hoping companies like Tesla can help out with solar + batteries, the faster the better!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Neven on September 06, 2017, 07:22:15 PM
I wish you and everybody on your island the best of luck, Archimid. And I hope your mango tree gets through okay as well!

Please, let us know how you are as soon as you can.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Archimid on September 06, 2017, 07:53:33 PM
Thanks for the good thoughts. The mango tree looks strong and healthy. He is young and flexible and with few leaves. Because I planted it during a drought I'm hoping he has deep roots. I think he'll be ok.

My first hope is that Irma takes a turn for the north and leave us be, but if it doesn't, I'm hoping to get some good pictures, maybe even video to share with you. My area is expecting winds of about 80 mph. Those are the fastest wind speeds I have ever experienced so I'm not sure what to expect.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: jai mitchell on September 06, 2017, 08:02:35 PM
CNN reports that 6 hours after a direct hit to the tiny island of Barbuda no one has yet heard from them. . .

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/905478738820964352

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 06, 2017, 08:17:02 PM
Stay safe, Archimid. 80Mph is about the strongest gust I've experienced, this made me lose footing and drop to all fours. That is no weather for any business outside, but we had to as it was military. The things army makes you do. Guessing your gusts will be around 100mph so people outside might fly off the streets if they're fool enough to try to walk outside. Our barracks windows held together ok but never I've heard such noise from windows before or after.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: wili on September 06, 2017, 08:22:37 PM
Jai, that's strange, 'cause I swear I saw a report form NYT that said that the roof had come off of the police station at Berbuda, forcing the officers to take shelter in the fire station. There were other reports of damage, but not of massive deaths or anything.

But now I can't find reference to that at the NYT site. Hard to tell what's fake news anymore.


ETA:
Yeah, there have been reports from the island...just look at comments to the post you linked to, which includes a link to this statement from the local official:

https://www.abconsulate.nyc/single-post/2017/09/06/Official-Statement-by-the-Hon-Gaston-Browne-Prime-Minister-of-Antigua-and-Barbuda-after-hurricane-Irma (https://www.abconsulate.nyc/single-post/2017/09/06/Official-Statement-by-the-Hon-Gaston-Browne-Prime-Minister-of-Antigua-and-Barbuda-after-hurricane-Irma)

With regard to Barbuda, preliminary reports indicate damage to rooves and to some buildings, but I have had no report of any fatalities. Barbuda too benefited from a high level of readiness, responsive to the urgings of the government and from the preparations that were made in advance, including the shelter constructed for that purpose.

New update from the scribbler:
https://robertscribbler.com/2017/09/06/models-show-irma-tracking-toward-88-degree-f-waters-before-setting-sights-on-florida-georgia-and-south-carolina/ (https://robertscribbler.com/2017/09/06/models-show-irma-tracking-toward-88-degree-f-waters-before-setting-sights-on-florida-georgia-and-south-carolina/)

And from cat6: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/category-5-irma-hits-leeward-islands-peak-strength (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/category-5-irma-hits-leeward-islands-peak-strength)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: IMeretricious on September 06, 2017, 08:44:58 PM
I hate to be such a cynic in a time like this, but that statement doesn't mention anywhere that contact has been reestablished with Barbuda since Irma passed over.

On twitter, people with family on the island are still searching for any word from Barbuda as of a few minutes ago.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: jai mitchell on September 06, 2017, 08:50:19 PM
article published 30 minutes ago.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/850811/Hurricane-Irma-path-track-models-update-Barbuda-contact-lost-damage-video (http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/850811/Hurricane-Irma-path-track-models-update-Barbuda-contact-lost-damage-video)

Hurricane Irma UPDATE: Barbuda diplomat says ALL CONTACT has been lost with island

HURRICANE IRMA has interrupted all communications between the Caribbean island of Barbuda with nearby islands after concerning reports recorded devastating consequences on local buildings.

Karen-Mae Hill, Antigua and Barbuda's High Commissioner,  told Sky News all contact with the island was lost shortly after midnight.

She said: "We have not been able to make any contact with Barbuda since about midnight UK time.

"The last report we had from our sister island was the police station was destroyed, the roof came off completely. Houses all around Codrington, the main settlement on Barbuda, have lost their roofs.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: morganism on September 06, 2017, 09:35:45 PM
Does the churn from Irma cool or warm the ocean behind it? Am looking at Jose, and wondering if Irma is steering air and creating a backwash, to push Jose further west, rather than the modeled northerly track.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: jai mitchell on September 06, 2017, 09:43:49 PM
modeled track for Katia is South and East
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: oren on September 06, 2017, 09:45:01 PM
Does the churn from Irma cool or warm the ocean behind it? Am looking at Jose, and wondering if Irma is steering air and creating a backwash, to push Jose further west, rather than the modeled northerly track.
Cyclones definitely cool the ocean as they traverse it, mostly from wind-driven evaporation and upwelling, but also from shading the ocean, and raining on the ocean surface. This makes it harder for other cyclones on the same path to achieve the same strength. Not sure how Irma is affecting the air currents and steering though.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: wili on September 06, 2017, 09:53:13 PM
Thanks for that clarification, jai. I shudder to think...

oren, the problem these days is that gw has heated the water more deeply than before, so even as evaporation cools the surface, what upwells to take its place is often just about as hot.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: jai mitchell on September 06, 2017, 10:02:14 PM
St. Martin video of storm from remotely operated camera. . .what planet is this???

https://twitter.com/MeteoExpress/status/905402131481493504
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: logicmanPatrick on September 06, 2017, 10:13:29 PM
I just popped in to say to Archimid : "My very best hopes, thoughts and wishes for your safety."

And to Sigmetnow - a name most apt at this time: "I join with others to express my gratitude for your efforts on the ASIF and particularly in this thread."

And thank you all.  The ASIF should be the first port of call for any self-respecting reporter who wants the pukka gen (http://forum.12oclockhigh.net/archive/index.php?t-607.html) on climate, just as is PPruNe (http://www.pprune.org/) for aviation matters.

Edit - from PPruNe - Hurricane? THIS is a hurricane. (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/599196-hurricane-hurricane.html)

Here is a later TAF. No METAR since 0800 this morning. I have never seen winds like this in a weather message:

TNCM 061121Z 0612/0712 300120G140KT 1SM +RA BKN015 OVC030
FM061500 250/60G80KT 5SM -SHRA BKN025 BKN050
FM061900 18035G50 P6SM -SHRA SCT025 BKN060
FM070000 15020G30 P6SM FEW025 SCT060

From wikipedia: Terminal aerodrome forecast (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminal_aerodrome_forecast)
Each line beginning with FM indicates a rapid change in the weather over a period of less than an hour.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 10:20:34 PM
#Irma has now maintained 185 mph winds for 24 hours - no Atlantic or eastern Pacific #hurricane has ever stayed this strong for so long.
https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/905503972382912512



Really good news: The eye of Irma is already moving north of Puerto Rico -- meaning the worst of the winds should remain safely offshore.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905516608604565504

The #radar this afternoon of #Irma is absolutely textbook as it moves poleward of #PuertoRico's latitude. Eyewall should miss island.
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/905515465988071426
Radar GIF at the link.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Archimid on September 06, 2017, 10:24:21 PM
Those are great news indeed. I'm already without power, but to be honest it lasted more than I thought it would. There are already 30-40 mph outside. Mango tree looking good.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 10:28:48 PM
.@Space_Station cameras captured another dramatic view of #HurricaneIrma as it made landfall in the Caribbean today: https://youtu.be/XoMRueJ17Rc

https://twitter.com/nasa/status/905513994341015553
Video at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: morganism on September 06, 2017, 10:30:33 PM
As of 4PM, Jose and Katia have strengthened into Hurricanes. @NHC_Atlantic's next advisories will be issued at 5PM

edit:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/ (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/)

 @philklotzbach

The Atlantic now has 3 hurricanes active at the same time: #Irma, #Jose and #Katia. The last time this occurred was September 16-17, 2010.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 10:53:33 PM
First contact has been made on the tiny Island of #Barbuda
https://twitter.com/eustormmap/status/905532695991681024
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 06, 2017, 11:14:29 PM
Scribbler adds color commentary to many of the issues already addressed in this thread:

Title: "Models Show Irma Tracking Toward 88 Degree (F) Waters Before Setting Sights on Florida, Georgia and South Carolina"

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/09/06/models-show-irma-tracking-toward-88-degree-f-waters-before-setting-sights-on-florida-georgia-and-south-carolina/

Extract: "As of yesterday and today, Irma was the strongest storm ever to form in the Central Atlantic. Fueled by record atmospheric and ocean heat and related high atmospheric moisture content, the storm plowed into the Leeward Islands of Barbuda, St. Martin and Anguilla as a top-strength Category 5 monster hurricane."
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 11:30:08 PM
Hard to believe we've been able to generate loops like this 3 days in a row. Center of powerful #Irma just north of Puerto Rico. #GOES16
https://twitter.com/nasa_sport/status/905539907938082816
GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 11:33:45 PM
Houston:

LISTEN: Updates on Addicks & Barker Reservoirs from @JeffLindner1 and @hcfcd
https://t.co/fW0O9GEbPR?amp=1

https://twitter.com/DisasterPIO/status/905453122700619778
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2017, 11:42:07 PM
Image:  5 pm update from the NHC.

Irma tightens aim on South Florida east coast
http://amp.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article171611132.html (http://amp.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article171611132.html)

IRMA is currently 500 miles wide.
Florida is 100 miles wide.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 12:11:30 AM
The good news: the models have come into agreement. The bad news: the models have come into agreement. 
NHC forecasts a Category 4 landfall near Miami.

Eric Holthaus:
Agreement like this boosts forecaster confidence. What's more, every single sub-model of GFS (21) & ECMWF (51) show a US mainland landfall.

What's not guaranteed at this stage is the specifics of the U.S. mainland landfall. Could be South Florida, could be Carolinas. Cat 2-5 psbl

In the worst-case scenario, Irma would hit the Miami area as a Cat 5, then ride up the east coast of Florida into the Carolinas as a Cat 3+

That's nearly what the official NHC forecast calls for right now. (Though with Miami-area landfall at Cat 4.)

The worst-case Irma scenario would be a nearly unimaginable catastrophe -- the worst natural disaster in U.S. history, and could cost $300B+

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905552049223368704
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Archimid on September 07, 2017, 12:20:38 AM
The local media reports that 42% of the island is without power. Some branches are already falling from my trees.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 12:25:10 AM
Sept 6th PM Barbuda Ham Radio Out, Satellite Phone Service Destroyed per PM
Facebook live video:  https://t.co/ObF4ZdF30G  They are letting people speak to the camera.

https://mobile.twitter.com/northlandfox/status/905552986021261312
Photos at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: ritter on September 07, 2017, 12:28:09 AM
The local media reports that 42% of the island is without power. Some branches are already falling from my trees.

Stay safe!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 12:29:57 AM
Des images de #Barbuda, première île frappée par #OuraganIRMA ce matin via ABS Television
https://twitter.com/KeraunosObs/status/905553681268998144
Another photo at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Brigantine on September 07, 2017, 12:31:34 AM
Does the churn from Irma cool or warm the ocean behind it?

Clearly visible cooling here (https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycom1-12/navo/globalsst_nowcast_anim30d.gif). Harvey is also visible - faintly.

(As of now. Gif will update over time.)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 12:38:19 AM
Florida governor Rick Scott: I am working with fuel suppliers to assure all gas stations have fuel tomorrow.  If you are sheltering in place, take only what you need.  The same with food and water.

Be ready to evacuate when asked.  Do not wait!

Dr. Marshall Shepherd:
Bizarre to pull up my @wunderground App and see what I see for Miami winds Sunday...just do not see that often on an App
https://twitter.com/DrShepherd2013/status/905553246445608964
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 12:49:20 AM
NWS Charleston, South Carolina:
It is critical that you PREPARE for potential significant to extreme impacts from #Irma NOW, while there is still time. #scwx #gawx
https://twitter.com/NWSCharlestonSC/status/905562652725968896
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 12:52:37 AM
#Barbuda (1600 habitants) "pratiquement inhabitable" d'après le Premier Ministre. #OuraganIRMA
[#Barbuda(1600 inhabitants) "almost uninhabitable" according to the Prime Minister. #OuraganIRMA ]
https://twitter.com/keraunosobs/status/905562101216944129
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 12:54:23 AM
#Irma has now been a Cat. 5 hurricane for over 1.5 days - the most time spent at Cat. 5 for an Atlantic hurricane since Ivan (2004).
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905564062725029888
Radar GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 12:56:29 AM
Irma, Jose and Katia mark the first time since 2010 that three active hurricanes have been in the Atlantic.  https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/09/06/americas/three-hurricanes-atlantic-basin/index.html

https://twitter.com/cnni/status/905564451377643523
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 01:00:29 AM
San Juan is having a really close brush with Irma's secondary eyewall right now. This is the peak of the storm for Puerto Rico.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905565397235232772
Radar GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: wili on September 07, 2017, 01:01:48 AM
Barbuda:

--One, maybe two, deaths so far (surprisingly low!)
--95% of structures suffered some damage
-- 60% of residents are now homeless
-- Prime Minister says country will need outside assistance to rebuild, ''devastation is unlike anything I have ever seen, Barbuda is pretty much uninhabitable''
-- PM - "I felt like crying... one of the worst feelings I have ever felt in my entire life"
-- Also said that if Jose threatens the island, it will need to be fully evacuated; he expects it might be needed regardless

https://www.facebook.com/abstvradio/videos/1505370289562190/ (https://www.facebook.com/abstvradio/videos/1505370289562190/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 01:29:41 AM
If you have gas grill, esp with side burner, fill up extra propane tank to cook after power goes out. Invite those less fortunate. #Irma
https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/905571115476676608
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 01:35:34 AM
This Twitter thread narrates a nail-biting flight into and out of San Juan just ahead of Hurricane Irma

A tense series of events as a Delta flight from New York attempts to land in San Juan, Puerto Rico and leave before Hurricane Irma hitsPhoto via @AirlineFlyer
https://mobile.twitter.com/i/moments/905487561182908416
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 02:40:30 AM
Unbelievable.  #Irma has snapped all the cell towers on #Barbuda. That's reinforced steel - photo: ABS
https://twitter.com/jonny_hallam/status/905560117105614848
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 03:27:40 AM
This is the WebCam that gave those amazing shots of airliners landing practically on the beach next to St. Maarten's airport.

#LIVE footage of #HurricaneIrma destroying MahoBeachCam.com in #StMaarten We will #rebuild!
https://twitter.com/PTZtv/status/905403131361730560
Video at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 03:32:51 AM
NWS:  Find out now if you live in a hurricane evacuation zone. 
http://flash.org/2017EvacuationZones.pdf (http://flash.org/2017EvacuationZones.pdf)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 03:44:26 AM
Experimental Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds
AST =  Atlantic Standard Time;  currently the same as Eastern (Daylight) Time;  UTC-4
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Bruce Steele on September 07, 2017, 08:10:00 AM
This is the same web-cam video Sigmetnow linked above for the Maho Beach Cam but it runs for 21 minutes. Same Web cam but starts earlier.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IiLnV1At-WY

Now imagine 33 hours of this !  Everywhere Irma goes must sound like this. Hypnotic. I listened to this earlier and that wind was in my ears for a couple hours. No I-pad necessary.
 
And many thanks for Sigmetnows impressive series of hurricane links.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: pikaia on September 07, 2017, 09:50:51 AM
Hot water ahead for Irma:

(https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/90000/90912/irma_crw_2017248.png)

  https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=90912   (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=90912)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: nicibiene on September 07, 2017, 10:50:01 AM
Quite a lot of endangered nuclear power plants seem to wait for Irma.  :o

http://enenews.com/worst-hurricane-ever-headed-straight-for-multiple-us-nuclear-plants-winds-up-to-225-mph-storm-to-cause-apocalyptic-damage-officials-making-fukushima-comparisons-videos (http://enenews.com/worst-hurricane-ever-headed-straight-for-multiple-us-nuclear-plants-winds-up-to-225-mph-storm-to-cause-apocalyptic-damage-officials-making-fukushima-comparisons-videos)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 07, 2017, 11:30:20 AM
It seems FPL is planning 2 more reactors at Turkey Point as well because it's nice "clean energy".
Hmm, we shall see i s'pose...maybe someone can put a webcam up there quick and we can see even better.
Dutch newspaper reporting 8 dead in St. Maarten now and looting in progress.
90% buildings damaged/destroyed, at least 60% homeless.
Dutch navy/marines arriving today with priority to reopen the airport for relief efforts.
I don't see much news from the Virgin Islands yet.
It looks very grim especially for Turks & Caicos/Bahamas next.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Archimid on September 07, 2017, 12:23:00 PM
Long night, but is over. we got lucky again and only experienced winds  of about 40 mph. We are all ok. we lost cell signal at about 9 at night, but it is back already. There is no power, and dont expect any for maybe weeks, perhaps longer. There is water.

 The sun hasn't come out yet, but with a flashlight I can see fallen branches everywhere. Some neighbors were blocked in by a fallen tree, but we cleared it fast.  There is a fallen tree over the next street over but is tangled up with powerlines. we decided to wait for the power company to give the all clear before clearing it.

Now to get some coffee and wait for the sun to come out to start cleaning up.  The mango tree looks ok.  8) . 

I worry terribly for the people of florida, cuba and the islands on Irma's path. Anyone on the path of this monster must take extreme precautions.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Clare on September 07, 2017, 12:33:12 PM
Relieved to hear you &  yours are safe, Archimid, that's the main thing for now.
Best wishes, Clare in NZ
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 12:47:03 PM
Thanks for the update, Archimid.  So glad to hear you escaped the worst. Stay safe!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 12:51:38 PM
The core of #Irma is expected to move near or over the Turks and Caicos and the SE Bahamas later today and tonight
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/905735605920944128

NWS Charleston, South Carolina:
5 AM Thu #Irma Update: Everyone in southeast SC/GA shud be preparing for major hurricane impacts early next week. #scwx #gawx #chswx #savwx
https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSCharlestonSC/status/905737260515065856

NHC Atlantic Ops:
Hurricane watches will likely be issued for parts of FL today. TS winds expected to arrive in south FL and the Keys on Saturday #Irma
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/905736214367567878

Images from the NWS 5am update:
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 12:54:23 PM
Hey Miami/south Florida - if you need a few fleeting moments of peace, go look at the sunrise for a second; it's incredible.
https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/905744887513051136
(No image)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 12:56:42 PM
Turks & Caicos, SE #Bahamas next in line for a direct hit/strike from #Irma. Life-threatening storm surge, devastating eyewall winds.
https://mobile.twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/905745246532849664
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 07, 2017, 12:58:37 PM
Yeah everyone, be careful out there and don't underestimate the threat.
In the meantime here's a good laugh;

Check out this beautiful luxury resort in St. Maarten on sale at Sotheby's for a mere 17 million US dollars.
You can rent it for 20,000 bucks a night.
Owner: Donald Trump
http://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/detail/180-l-3989-qz6f4w/chateau-des-palmiers-terres-basses-mi-97150 (http://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/detail/180-l-3989-qz6f4w/chateau-des-palmiers-terres-basses-mi-97150)

Next up; Mar a Lago
Oh sweet irony.....
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 01:04:46 PM
Only 25% of Florida gas stations have fuel currently, per Gas Buddy.
Stations: 7131
Stations with fuel: 1784

http://tracker.gasbuddy.com (http://tracker.gasbuddy.com)

Here's the availability in the Miami area. 
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 01:14:39 PM
This was almost 8 hours ago:

#Irma has now had winds of 185 mph for 33 hrs - no other TC around the globe has been this strong for so long in satellite era (since 1966).
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905631742391762944

Previous record was 24 hr set by Supertyphoon Haiyan in 2013.

Here's a brief recap of some of #Irma's most notable meteorological records - valid as of 11pm EDT:
https://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/09/Hurricane-Irma-Records.pdf
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 02:44:14 PM
The lighter side of hurricane preparations in Miami.

Even with Irma knocking at our door, we here in Miami are NOT FREAKING OUT AT ALL!
http://amp.miamiherald.com/living/liv-columns-blogs/dave-barry/article171702477.html (http://amp.miamiherald.com/living/liv-columns-blogs/dave-barry/article171702477.html)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 04:53:36 PM
No matter where #Irma makes landfall, very heavy rain is likely. Flash flooding on streams and rivers will enhance coastal flooding.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905803956236013568
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 05:02:10 PM
New watches for the islands for Hurricane Jose.   :(

It's so sad to see this... Makes me sick... New WATCHES for areas JUST HIT by #Irma. #Jose is coming...
https://twitter.com/AlexCorderoWX/status/905806567718756353
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 05:06:20 PM
Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Watch for the South Florida Peninsula, including Naples, Key West, Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, Palm Beach #Irma
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 05:10:30 PM
12Z early model  intensity and track forecast, 06Z GFS trk fcst, and satellite image of #IRMA shows SE Florida receiving cat 4 storm sunday
https://twitter.com/KieranBhatia/status/905808130382204930
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 05:15:37 PM
"Follow local evacuation orders, do not wait."

Heavy traffic is expected w/ evacuations; if you're planning on evacuating, leave now & monitor @fl511_state for traffic updates #FLPrepares
https://mobile.twitter.com/FLSERT/status/905807894117060608

Miami-Dade Residents! Here are the evacuation centers available. Remember to call 311 or (305) 468-5402 to find out which centers are open.
https://mobile.twitter.com/jeanmonestime/status/905807324056608770
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 07, 2017, 05:21:23 PM
The linked Wunderground article describes the catastrophic storm surge risk from Miami to South Carolina.  Also, I have seen nullschool forecasts of over 45-ft high significant wave heights hitting Miami if the current forecasts hold:

Title: "Hurricane Irma an Extreme Storm Surge Threat to the U.S. and Bahamas"

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-extreme-storm-surge-threat-us-and-bahamas (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-extreme-storm-surge-threat-us-and-bahamas)

Extract: "A potentially catastrophic storm surge for Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina
If Irma makes a trek up the East Coast from Miami to southern South Carolina as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane, as the models currently suggest, the portions of the coast that the eyewall touches will potentially see a massive and catastrophic storm surge, breaking all-time storm surge records and causing many billions of dollars in damage. Even areas up to a hundred miles to the north of where the center makes landfall could potentially see record storm surges. The area of most concern is the northern coast of Florida, the coast of Georgia, and the southern coast of South Carolina, due to the concave shape of the coast, which will act to funnel and concentrate the storm surge to ridiculous heights. If we look at wunderground’s storm surge maps for the U.S. East Coast, we see that in a worst-case Category 3 hurricane hitting at high tide, the storm tide (the combined effect of the storm surge and the tide) ranges from 17 – 20’ above ground along the northern coast of Florida, and 18 – 23 feet above ground along the Georgia coast. If Irma is a Cat 4, these numbers increase to 22 – 28 feet for the coast of Georgia. This is a Katrina-level storm surge, the kind that causes incredible destruction and mass casualties among those foolish enough to refuse to evacuate."

See also nullschool significant wave height forecasts:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/09/10/1200Z/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=significant_wave_height/orthographic=-79.23,28.70,2338 (https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/09/10/1200Z/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=significant_wave_height/orthographic=-79.23,28.70,2338)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Martin Gisser on September 07, 2017, 05:50:34 PM
So it will hit during high tide?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: SteveMDFP on September 07, 2017, 06:08:38 PM
Absolutely mind-boggling.
If one wanted to devastate Houston with a hurricane, you couldn't *design* a more effective storm than Harvey.

It's looking the same for Irma for devastating Miami and the entire Florida economy.  Charleston, SC seems likely to be devastated as well.

Florida thrives on its reputation for idyllic weather and big, beautiful, long beaches.  Much of the Atlantic coast of Florida *already* has had problems with progressive beach erosion.  Sand gets imported and dredged from far away already.  Entire beach communities may suddenly have no beach at all.

Its almost as if Mother Nature has decided to declare war against the SE US.  And Trump, too, with two major properties of his set to be devastated.

With lots of advance warning for Florida, I'm cautiously optimistic that loss of life will be relatively low.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 07, 2017, 06:12:15 PM
So it will hit during high tide?

Martin,

Your question is a function of how fast the hurricane moves, what location you are concerned about and what combination of impacts (including their phase relationships) that you are concerned about; and probability functions for combining such events.

If you are concerned about waves hitting Miami (and where the waves will break); the two attached GFS forecasts show a 6hr window with high waves near Miami for the tides to fluctuate with-in.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Martin Gisser on September 07, 2017, 06:18:20 PM
Yeah everyone, be careful out there and don't underestimate the threat.
In the meantime here's a good laugh;

Check out this beautiful luxury resort in St. Maarten on sale at Sotheby's for a mere 17 million US dollars.
You can rent it for 20,000 bucks a night.
Owner: Donald Trump
http://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/detail/180-l-3989-qz6f4w/chateau-des-palmiers-terres-basses-mi-97150 (http://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/detail/180-l-3989-qz6f4w/chateau-des-palmiers-terres-basses-mi-97150)

Next up; Mar a Lago
Oh sweet irony.....
Oh yeah! And this might bankrupt Trump, if he isn't already.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/post-nation/wp/2017/09/06/hurricane-irma-just-slammed-into-trumps-caribbean-estate-and-is-headed-toward-his-florida-properties/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/post-nation/wp/2017/09/06/hurricane-irma-just-slammed-into-trumps-caribbean-estate-and-is-headed-toward-his-florida-properties/)
Among the structures badly damaged were a group of government buildings on the island. "We know that the four most solid buildings on the island have been destroyed, which means that more rustic structures have probably been completely or partially destroyed," French Interior Minister Gerard Collomb told AFP.

(https://scontent.ftxl1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/21272306_2170287556392269_1567226608822378980_n.jpg?oh=4c153ac53964f73cad84c2c3be5f6a70&oe=5A138FF6)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 07, 2017, 06:27:10 PM
Next up; Mar a Lago
Oh sweet irony.....
Oh yeah! And this might bankrupt Trump, if he isn't already.

Mar-a-Lago will have a front row seat for all the Irma action.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Martin Gisser on September 07, 2017, 06:34:15 PM
It might not only bankrupt Trump. It might pop the Miami housing bubble. This hurricane season has already impacted politics (Trump's recent artful deal with Pelosi and Schumer). Whatabout a financial catastrophe?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Archimid on September 07, 2017, 07:02:28 PM
I'm stealing that FU Earth image.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 07:03:40 PM
WATCH: Gov. Scott: "This storm is wider than our entire state"
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905823782450987008
Video clip at link.

How important is gas in South #Florida ahead of #HurricaneIrma?
Tankers are getting escorts by law enforcement. @WPTV
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905822774761009152
Video clip at the link.

Hurricane Irma is expected to cut power to more than 2.5 million homes, including nearly half of Miami.
Current power outage forecasts for the Continental U.S. from researchers:
https://t.co/uxnbUb7gKb
https://twitter.com/bryanwx/status/905810874346196992

Hurricane #Irma expected to bring 5-10ft storm surge and 1-2ft of rain to South Florida—a catastrophe.
Peak impacts Saturday-Sunday-Monday.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905813745670246405


Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 07:10:01 PM
Hurricane watch issued for South Florida, as Hurricane Irma threatens region
“It’s an extreme hurricane risk,” said Bryan Norcross, senior hurricane specialist at The Weather Channel, who became famous as a Miami weather forecaster in Hurricane Andrew. “Everybody should really be ready as if Hurricane Andrew was going to hit them.”
“The odds are definitely looking worse for the east coast of Florida, given the latest set of model runs,” said Jeff Masters, meteorology director for the website Weather Underground, who used to fly on NOAA Hurricane Hunters. “It’s unusual to have the top four models all give the same track in advance, and they’re all doing that now. And they’re all saying it’s going to hit you guys squarely on Sunday.”
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/fl-reg-hurricane-irma-thursday-20170907-story,amp.html (http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/fl-reg-hurricane-irma-thursday-20170907-story,amp.html)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 07:15:09 PM
Maps via Brian Tang's @UAlbanyDAES show #GFS has had a consistent poleward bias with #Irma. The #ECMWF in contrast has been spot on.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905822228142579712

[Twitter] Thread and context on #Irma's growing threat to South Florida from NBC Miami's chief meteorologist
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905832528615014401
Thread here:
https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/905782508423434240
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 07:19:17 PM
3 hurricanes threatening land simultaneously in the W Atlantic Basin. Never seen anything like this in the modern record #Irma #Jose #Katia
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/905825921243938817
Radar GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 07:21:35 PM
11am update.

Incredibly, with #Jose on the way, another hurricane watch was just issued for the island of Barbuda -- its 2nd major hurricane in 3 days.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905809145974149121
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 07:41:47 PM
Houston reservoirs update:

Barker pool at 96.26 ft and falling. #houwx #hounews
https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/905847240866004995

Addicks pool at 103.11ft and falling. #houwx #hounews
https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/905847008535117824

Release rates:
Barker: 3970cfs.  Addicks: 6,730cfs. COE hopes to continue to reduce releases over the next 24 hrs
https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/905848027008692224

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 07, 2017, 07:51:22 PM
Scribbler indicates that the extreme ridge-trough patterns in the Jet Stream induced by Arctic Amplification from climate change is increasing the probability that Irma will impact Florida and the Southeast US coast:

Title: "A Visibly Extreme Jet Stream in Advance of Irma"

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/09/07/a-visibly-extreme-jet-stream-in-advance-of-irma/

Extract: "And as we sit here hoping and praying that Irma will re-curve away from the U.S. east coast, we should consider how polar warming may be helping to make such a terrible strike more likely — increasing risks to so many people and to so much that we all hold dear."
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 07:58:36 PM
Mandatory evacuation in South Carolina from the Florida border to and including the city of Savannah.
Interstate-16 out of Savannah has been changed to contraflow:  all lanes are westbound.

Mandatory evacs in GA east of I-95 don't start until Saturday. You have time. Don't rush or panic, take your pets.
https://twitter.com/WeatherKait/status/905845536267395073

https://gov.georgia.gov/press-releases/2017-09-07/deal-expands-state-emergency-24-additional-counties
Map and details at this link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 08:02:42 PM
2 pm advisory is out: Key West warned to be ready for up to 8 feet of storm damage and impassable roads and bridges.
https://twitter.com/jenstaletovich/status/905852453970735104 (https://twitter.com/jenstaletovich/status/905852453970735104)

South Florida is under a hurricane watch, and a weekend strike is possible
http://amp.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article171728402.html (http://amp.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article171728402.html)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 08:07:19 PM
NHC 2pm Public Advisory

"STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft
Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Northwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ft
Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

Water levels around Puerto Rico should subside today."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/071743.shtml? (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/071743.shtml?)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 07, 2017, 08:27:54 PM
As the linked article indicates that the HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting) model is likely better than the GFS model (w.r.t. Irma), I provide the four attached recent HWRF forecasts for when Irma may make landfall near Miami:

Title: "Predicting Irma’s Path Is Giving Supercomputers a Challenge"

https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/hurricane-irma/predicting-irma-s-path-giving-supercomputers-challenge-n798961 (https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/hurricane-irma/predicting-irma-s-path-giving-supercomputers-challenge-n798961)

Extract: "The importance of perusing multiple models was exemplified again this week as the GFS model predicted a phenomenally low 870 millibar atmospheric pressure reading, said Masters. That would indicate winds of 200 miles per hour, or more, could be on the way.

But Masters said the European and HWRF models factor in the immediate impact of the winds in stirring up colder, sub-surface ocean water. That colder water will tend to decrease the power of the storm, increase pressures into the 920-millibar range, and reduce wind speeds. So while the GFS model might indicate “a ridiculous, totally off the scale, hurricane," Masters said, "the other models say it’s likely we merely have a ridiculous hurricane.”"
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: logicmanPatrick on September 07, 2017, 08:39:16 PM
Possible 4th hurricane on same path?

Tropical wave behind Jose -

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nhc.noaa.gov%2Ftafb_latest%2FUSA_latest.gif&hash=65405623e0fb785fc9a011a8f02cda3a)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 08:45:05 PM
I'm not overstating in saying these tiny shifts in the models (e.g. ECMWF 12z today vs. yesterday) are worth tens of billions of dollars...
https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/905856187870138368
Radar GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 08:54:02 PM
[Image #1], Hurricane Andrew (1992).
[Image #2], Hurricane Irma (today).
(images to scale)
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905838909816492032 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905838909816492032)

Why compare to Andrew?
These Pictures of Hurricane Andrew’s Path Show Why Florida Is Tracking Irma So Closely
http://fortune.com/2017/09/05/hurricane-andrew-photo-damage/ (http://fortune.com/2017/09/05/hurricane-andrew-photo-damage/)

Edit.  This GIF:
I combined the images of Hurricane Andrew (1992) & Hurricane Irma (today) at scale in a gif. Irma is a damn leviathan.
https://twitter.com/JoelNihlean/status/905845846687789058 (https://twitter.com/JoelNihlean/status/905845846687789058)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 09:16:51 PM
Flood Hazard Outlook.  Includes the entire state of South Carolina.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on September 07, 2017, 09:49:48 PM

But Masters said the European and HWRF models factor in the immediate impact of the winds in stirring up colder, sub-surface ocean water. That colder water will tend to decrease the power of the storm...
I read that the sub-surface waters over which Harvey travelled were very warm, providing even more energy and water. Are the sub-surface waters on the way to Florida cooler, or are they warm enough to supply Irma with yet more ammo?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 07, 2017, 10:51:05 PM

But Masters said the European and HWRF models factor in the immediate impact of the winds in stirring up colder, sub-surface ocean water. That colder water will tend to decrease the power of the storm...
I read that the sub-surface waters over which Harvey travelled were very warm, providing even more energy and water. Are the sub-surface waters on the way to Florida cooler, or are they warm enough to supply Irma with yet more ammo?

gerontocrat,

The Wunderground quote was made with regards to comparing various model procedures and making relative statements, i.e. that HWRF hurricane forecasts are generally more accurate than GFS forecasts.  Furthermore, due to climate change, both sea surface temperatures (SST) and sub-surface temperature are warmer than they use to be (note that the first attached nullschool image of SST today is warm, and that the second image of SSTA shows just how much warmer it is than the baseline).  So to answer your question more directly, Irma is now a Cat 5 but it is projected to weaken to a Cat 4 soon; and the subsurface water temperatures are sufficiently lower than the surface water temperatures that the HWRF forecasted Cat 4 strength is lower than the GFS forecasted Cat 4 strength.

Best,
ASLR

Edit: As an example of the differences in the HWRF and the GFS forecasts, HWRF as Irma making landfall with a central low pressure of about 917 mb, while GFS has a corresponding pressure of about 898 mb.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 11:18:09 PM
Irma (left, Cat 5) and Jose (right, just upgraded to Cat 3)
Simultaneous major hurricanes for the first time in seven years.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905899594357383171
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 11:21:13 PM
For reference, about 85% of Miami-Dade County is below 10ft elevation. A direct hit from Irma at high tide would be catastrophic.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905893892268150785

The storm surge forecast is 5-10 ft from Palm Beach to Miami to Key West to Naples. That's high end for the area and life-threatening. #Irma
https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/905828359258689537
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 11:24:11 PM
A remarkable stat:  Other storms have spent longer at Cat. 5 throughout their lifetime, but #Irma has satellite era record for consec hrs.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905903068973338624

As of 5 EDT (21 UTC ), Irma has been Cat 5 storm for 66 consecutive hours. Satellite era record for N. Atlantic was 42 hours (Mitch, David).
https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/905898336053370880
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 11:34:42 PM
5pm update.
"It is become more likely that Irma will make landfall in southern Florida as a dangerous major hurricane, and bring life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts to much of the state."
"A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys.  This means there is the possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 48 hours in those areas."
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 11:42:48 PM
5-day total precipitation.  The map has remained quite stable for several days.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 11:45:59 PM
This may not be the exact landfall point in South FL, using it as an example to show how expansive winds get by Saturday. Gusts in mph #Irma
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/905907442000723969
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 11:49:47 PM
Pretty frightening solutions on the European Ensembles. Good consensus now for a destructive #Irma making landfall in S FL. #nbcct
https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/905905540391469056
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2017, 11:52:03 PM
After devastation to the Leeward islands from #Irma, Major Hurricane #Jose is forecast to serve a 2nd major blow this weekend. Just horrible
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/905905482157711361

Hurricane Jose has rapidly intensified into a major hurricane.  It is "only Category 3" yet pales in comparison to monster Category 5 #Irma
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905905218302423040
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 08, 2017, 12:32:41 AM
The two attached nullschool images show the 250 hPa winds at 6pm EDT on Sept 9th and 10th, respectively.  They illustrate how the jet stream guides the tracks for both Irma and Jose:
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2017, 12:43:13 AM
If you live in area of ZONE C marked in map, you're now under the mandatory evacuation order in #MiamiDade, just like Zones A, B More @nbc6
https://mobile.twitter.com/johnmoralesnbc6/status/905887692818407424 (https://mobile.twitter.com/johnmoralesnbc6/status/905887692818407424)
Evac map at the link.  You are urged to evacuate tonight.

- The NOA coordinates are tracking close to the Turkey Point nuclear power plant. Do you know if they are prepared?
- Only @insideFPL knows. Storm surge could be extreme there.
https://mobile.twitter.com/johnmoralesnbc6/status/905889338554290179 (https://mobile.twitter.com/johnmoralesnbc6/status/905889338554290179)

Thousands and thousands of cars streaming north on interstate 95 near the Georgia -South Carolina border
https://mobile.twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/905889339967754240 (https://mobile.twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/905889339967754240)
Video clip of highway traffic at the link.

Image: current traffic flow in Florida, via Google Maps.

Edit: about 39% of gas stations in Florida have fuel as of 7pm Thursday.
http://tracker.gasbuddy.com (http://tracker.gasbuddy.com)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2017, 12:47:00 AM
High tide at Virginia Key in Miami

Sunday 12:13 AM & 12:50 PM

Low tide at 6:31 AM

#Irma

https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/905891230462115840
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Geoff on September 08, 2017, 12:47:39 AM
Even though it looks like Jose should be fine and stay in the atlantic in the forecast above:

it may be bad (forecast from yesterday)

(https://i.imgur.com/e3amJJ0.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/GAyBbtG.gif)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2017, 12:55:09 AM
Potential storm surge inundation. Feet (0.3 m) above ground level.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/215356.shtml?inundation#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/215356.shtml?inundation#contents)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on September 08, 2017, 12:56:12 AM
Not to put too fine a point on it at a time of hectic breaking news, but the Andrew/Irma pair above were not rescaled nor oriented correctly. Best practice is to check work at large scale as a rapid-fire two-frame gif. Andrew is dropped onto the Irma layer by 'lighten only' which only works because the two are spatially displaced in the source images and Irma is darker underneath.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2017, 03:33:14 AM
Florida governor is closing all schools, enabling them to be used as shelters as needed.

Governor Scott Closes All K-12 Public Schools, State Colleges, State Universities and State Offices to Begin Preparations Immediately

On September 7, 2017, in News Releases, by Staff
WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – Today, Governor Rick Scott is directing all public K-12 schools, state colleges, state universities and state offices to close Friday, September 8 – Monday, September 11.

Governor Scott said, “Today, I am directing the closure of all public schools, state colleges, state universities and state offices for their normal activities effective Friday through Monday, to ensure we have every space available for sheltering and staging. Floridians are facing a life-threatening storm in Hurricane Irma, and every family must prepare to evacuate. Our state’s public schools serve a vital role in our communities as shelters for displaced residents and staging areas for hurricane recovery efforts. Closing public schools, state colleges, state universities and state offices will provide local and state emergency officials the flexibility necessary to support shelter and emergency response efforts.”

For detailed shelter information, visit www.fldoe.org/irma (http://www.fldoe.org/irma) and www.floridadisaster.org/info (http://www.floridadisaster.org/info)

http://www.flgov.com/2017/09/07/governor-scott-closes-all-k-12-public-schools-state-colleges-state-universities-and-state-offices-to-begin-preparations-immediately/ (http://www.flgov.com/2017/09/07/governor-scott-closes-all-k-12-public-schools-state-colleges-state-universities-and-state-offices-to-begin-preparations-immediately/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2017, 03:39:26 AM
8pm update

"...IRMA PUMMELING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS..."

"Maximum sustained winds remain near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force plane
is 919 mb (27.14 inches)."
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: morganism on September 08, 2017, 05:16:32 AM
 Levi Cowan‏ @TropicalTidbits 11h11 hours ago

"Hoping #Irma's cold wake, seen here in the suppression of the cumulus field, will slow #Jose down as it approaches Leeward Islands Friday."

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits

"And by slow down, I don't mean literally - I mean slow down Jose's strengthening trend, or reverse it."
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 08, 2017, 06:24:13 AM
comparing the size of Andrew and Irma, as a-team did above, it's hard not to think the tropical Atlantic has now warmed enough to produce storms the size previously seen only in West Pacific, where the tracks of major typhoons can extend way longer than in Atlantic. Maybe compare also to the widest storms previously seen over Atlantic.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Andre on September 08, 2017, 06:46:05 AM
Latest GFS 00z run and 11pm NHC update:

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Andre on September 08, 2017, 06:53:15 AM
We should expect to see more evacuation orders for Georgia as well. Storm surge and rainfall should be significant.

 Storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham noted in a blog post Wednesday: "The region from northeast Florida (St. Augustine) through all of the Georgia coast and southwest South Carolina is particularly vulnerable to storm surge, whether or not Irma makes a direct landfall in that region."

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-extreme-storm-surge-threat-us-and-bahamas (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-extreme-storm-surge-threat-us-and-bahamas)

Latest from Wunderground: (10pm Thursday)

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/triple-trouble-cat-5-irma-cat-3-jose-cat-1-katia (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/triple-trouble-cat-5-irma-cat-3-jose-cat-1-katia)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 08, 2017, 05:28:11 PM
In the latest HWRF forecasts, Irma tracks more along the North-South centerline of Florida, but per the attached images issued Sept 8th, it still impacts the Greater Miami area for well over 9 hours (beginning early Sunday morning):
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: BenB on September 08, 2017, 05:40:57 PM
According to Windy/ECMWF, Jose will hang around north-east of the Bahamas for a while,
 and by next Sunday it will be a bit of a monster just off the US coast:

https://on.windy.com/jpdn (https://on.windy.com/jpdn)

Also another cyclone on its way from Cape Verde. Still in fantasy-land, so we'll have to wait and see.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 08, 2017, 06:05:04 PM
According to Windy/ECMWF, Jose will hang around north-east of the Bahamas for a while,
 and by next Sunday it will be a bit of a monster just off the US coast:

https://on.windy.com/jpdn (https://on.windy.com/jpdn)

Also another cyclone on its way from Cape Verde. Still in fantasy-land, so we'll have to wait and see.

Here is an image of the Windy forecasted location of Jose on Sept 17 2017.  Hopefully, as it moves Northward it does not hang a left turn and follow a Sandy track towards New York:
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 08, 2017, 06:42:44 PM
Landfall per GFS, sunday.
Everglades has the moisture and temperature Irma thrives on it seems.
Far inland, nice and shallow.
Beckwith mentioned water on land recently before this outlook, in relation to landfall of cyclonic storms.
If it is significant here is the optimal test case i guess.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 08, 2017, 07:27:07 PM
Reports trickling in from Virgin Islands have recorded wind speed at 360 kmph, or 224 mph.
That would be a record?
Wow, and expectations are this wench Irma has not shown us her worst yet.
I don't see much from Turks, Caicos, Bahamas yet but it was a little less heavy there, more vulnerable though it appears.
Florida may well record an unfathomably even stronger wind with all the monitoring equipment present.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on September 08, 2017, 07:55:36 PM
NHC still say Jose not a threat to the 48, but Baruda (and St Martin?) will get a swipe tomorrow.
Given that they are wrecked already .....
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2017, 08:04:38 PM
2pm Intermediate Advisory; wind probability and timing; rainfall.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Daniel B. on September 08, 2017, 08:06:54 PM
Reports trickling in from Virgin Islands have recorded wind speed at 360 kmph, or 224 mph.
That would be a record?
Wow, and expectations are this wench Irma has not shown us her worst yet.
I don't see much from Turks, Caicos, Bahamas yet but it was a little less heavy there, more vulnerable though it appears.
Florida may well record an unfathomably even stronger wind with all the monitoring equipment present.
Unlikely.  The prolonged period of category 5 and minimal interaction over land as weakened this beast slightly.  Down to a category 4, with wind speeds of 155 mph.  If she moves too close to Cuba, she will weaken eve further, before pummeling Florida.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 08, 2017, 08:13:17 PM
Gerontocrat; yes, especially Barbuda it seems.
Dutch navy is saying they might move away for José from St. Maarten to keep the ships safe.
Pussies if you ask me.
The marines on St. Maarten now are tolerating looting of food/water and also theft until more help arrives.
They are said to number around 40 now and José might impede reïnforcement.
1 airplane only has been active and criticism of the Dutch government is increasing as citizens report shooting and gangs with machetes etc.
Although overall impression is not violent and chaos yet, potential is there it seems.
Dutch had better get off their ass IMHO.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on September 08, 2017, 08:15:27 PM
Rather nice 4x4 animated tile-up of all the Goes-16 satellite channels that are the source of all the Irma imagery (along with VIIRS on the NOAA/NASA Suomi NPP satellite).

They are still obsessing over labelling every last image "non-operational" which the public does NOT need to hear now or ever. It merely means Goes-16 instruments are fully operational but perhaps still undergoing calibrations and positioning. Very similar language is used to "commission" a new sailboat which just means testing its systems for a few months close to harbor before crossing an ocean.

https://satelliteliaisonblog.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/20170907_irma_16p_anno.gif

I dunno about "looting". In marine salvage, if the ship and its equipment or cargo have been abandoned, it's up for grabs under international law if you can bring it ashore. There is terrible poverty in the Caribbean, terrible disparities in wealth between the "former" slaves who make up 95+% of the residents, their resort hotel masters, and private mansion owners like Trump who don't spend even a week a year in their $19,000,000 beachfront palacios. (It's the same here in Tucson where I live!)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2017, 08:19:42 PM
I don't think an association between tropical cyclones and earthquakes has been shown statistically, but maybe it should be revisited....


Mexico hit by 'strongest earthquake in a century' as magnitude 8.2 tremor triggers tsunami waves
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/08/mexico-earthquake-magnitude-8-tremor-rattles-buildings-capital/ (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/08/mexico-earthquake-magnitude-8-tremor-rattles-buildings-capital/)

How strong is Hurricane Irma? It’s registering on earthquake-detecting seismometers
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/article171359692.html (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/article171359692.html)

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2017, 08:29:44 PM
NWS Director: With #Irma, a G4 geomagnetic storm, & tsunami monitoring this morning, @NWS is monitoring, forecasting and warning from "Sun to Sea"
https://twitter.com/nwsdirector/status/906168548107702272
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 08, 2017, 08:30:13 PM
Daniel B.;  Models appear to graze Cuba, which would indeed suck up some of Irma's energy.
Main island Bahamas as well, to their misfortune.
Then there is a bit of potential again as she nears Florida and not much buffers.
I ain't betting on anything but the models...good luck to all.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: wili on September 08, 2017, 08:34:32 PM
Latest Euro has Irma hitting Naples. Lots of warm water on that side:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906214285403189252
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 08, 2017, 08:39:54 PM
Sigmetnow; a quake was shown by USGS between Puerto Rico/Hispaniola right where Irma passed and destroyed.
Interestingly, that fault runs straight to the Chiapas 8.1....

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 08, 2017, 08:45:47 PM
USGS quakes and faultlines.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2017, 08:50:07 PM
Accumulated Cyclone Energy.

When using ACE, Friday afternoon is the most active the Atlantic has ever been during the satellite era.
https://twitter.com/codyyeary/status/906227025723215874
Data at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2017, 08:54:51 PM
Tropical tornadoes are destructive and form very quickly. In 2004 remnants of Francis caused 22 tornadoes in [South Carolina] when the center was in w. [Georgia]
https://twitter.com/nwscolumbia/status/906140645601005569
Safety infographic at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2017, 09:15:33 PM
12z GEFS mean is fairly close to the 6z mean, and now much more clustered just W of Miami. Biggest change is removing all tracks to the E
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/906233641860247552
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2017, 09:17:24 PM
When home depot out of plywood
https://twitter.com/BudElliott3/status/906216276955148288
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2017, 09:22:17 PM
Two South Florida nuclear power plants lie in Irma’s path. Are they ready?
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article171542692.html (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article171542692.html)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2017, 09:33:24 PM
All the prep work for the hurricane happening in incredible heat as well. Heat index in Miami is 110. #IrmaHurricane2017
https://twitter.com/growingwisdom/status/906235600822554625
Image of current conditions at the link.

To the guy who keeps calling my office suggesting we should just drop dry ice into Irma...that ain't gonna work. #toobusy #wastemytime #Irma
https://twitter.com/WCM_Krissy/status/906236188297703425

You can't wait for more model runs and just hope things change. You have to prepare for a hurricane. It's as simple as that.
https://twitter.com/RyanNBC6/status/905991887215054849

For South Florida the time for hope has passed. A potentially catastrophic hurricane is headed your way. If ordered to leave, get out. #Irma
https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/905996129426386944


Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2017, 09:45:48 PM
Top image: (the Grand Celebration usually sails to the Bahamas.)
they've got a sense of humor
https://twitter.com/TerpWeather/status/906235758058590219

Bottom image:
Most of the cruise ships (blue) near Miami are either headed to Cozumel, Mexico, or "port not identified."
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2017, 10:07:10 PM
Traffic appears to be moving fairly well out of Florida.  The mandatory evacuation of Savannah, Georgia is being added to the often heavy Interstate 95 traffic, so no surprise at the slowness there.

Gas Buddy reports 186 of 7131 gas stations in Florida have fuel.  (The status of most stations is unknown.)  Results for stations in the Miami area is shown below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2017, 10:12:12 PM
Catastrophic damage on #Barbuda can be seen from space. Entire island stripped of tropical foliage and left brown. #Irma
https://twitter.com/Cyclonebiskit/status/906234793381302273

Le ciel clair sur #Barbuda cet après-midi permet de constater l'ampleur du désastre même depuis le satellite MODIS/Aqua. #Irma
https://twitter.com/KeraunosObs/status/906233638488088576

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: wili on September 08, 2017, 10:33:38 PM
Per WaPo: "Rush Limbaugh indicates he’s evacuating Palm Beach days after suggesting Hurricane Irma is fake news"  ;D ;D

And shouldn't all those cruise ships be helping to evacuate people? wtf?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: morganism on September 08, 2017, 11:11:24 PM
Latest wind map suggests Jose MAY veer SSW, and Hit Antigua, after, they evac'd Barbado. non-ironic.

If it were to go south of Cuba, could change whole dynamic for the following depression

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-70.17,20.74,2130
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 08, 2017, 11:20:18 PM
Scribbler provides a nice update on Irma risks:

Title: "Powerful Irma Threatens to Put South Florida Underwater, Spill Lake Okeechobee"

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/09/08/powerful-irma-threatens-to-put-south-florida-underwater-spill-lake-okeechobee/

Extract: "Near category five strength Irma represents a major flood threat from storm surge and rainfall to South Florida. Due to its large size, strong winds, its movement toward shore atop rising seas, and ability to push a tall and wide-ranging surge of water over far-flung coastlines, Irma has the potential to put major cities like Miami under water. In addition, expected 10-15 inch rainfall over Lake Okeechobee threatens the integrity of an aging dike which, if overtopped, could result in severe flooding of inland communities."
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2017, 11:48:00 PM
 5 PM update extends hurricane watches and warnings (which our time based) as the storm approaches. Increasing concern for the West Coast of Florida, where a more gradual slope makes a higher risk for storm surge.  The many bridges between the islands of Key West pose the risk that if one bridge goes out, no evacuations from the south of it are possible by road.

NWS Key West:

***THIS IS AS REAL AS IT GETS***

***NOWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SAFE***

***YOU STILL HAVE TIME TO EVACUATE***

Please RT. #Irma
https://twitter.com/nwskeywest/status/906266219304685568
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2017, 11:55:11 PM

And shouldn't all those cruise ships be helping to evacuate people? wtf?

Not everyone in entire state has to be evacuated.  There are hurricane-safe buildings, particularly newer ones in Miami, and farther inland, away from the coast.  There are shelters in every county except in Key West.  They may not be fancy, but you will survive.  After the storm... that's a whole different question.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2017, 11:56:44 PM
Miami is a ghost town. #hurricanirma
https://mobile.twitter.com/SebastianMurdoc/status/906246680860864512
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2017, 11:58:26 PM
Cat4 #Irma's main center of circulation is roughly 224,000 square miles (I measured #GIS). Almost the size of Texas (268, 597). Image shows:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ryanmiller_wx/status/906173571566886913
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 12:14:48 AM
Potential storm surge, in feet (.3m) above ground.  Waves are on top of this.
6 to 12 feet storm surge in Naples, and Sanibel Island. (Later forecasts may intensify warnings in Tampa and the "Big Bend" coast of NW Florida.)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 12:22:44 AM
Don't forget that in addition to the 150mph+ winds and 10-12 feet of storm surge, Irma will bring 1-2 feet of rain to most of Florida.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/906281086103244800
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 09, 2017, 12:24:01 AM
As of 5:40pm EDT Irma is forecast to make landfall in Florida as a Cat 5 hurricane:

Title: "Hurricane Irma forecast to strike Florida Keys as Category 5"

http://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-irma-forecast-strike-florida-keys-category/story?id=49697542 (http://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-irma-forecast-strike-florida-keys-category/story?id=49697542)

Extract: "Hurricane Irma is now forecast to hit the Florida Keys as a Category 5 storm.
Meteorologists expect Irma to make landfall in the Keys between 5 a.m. and 7 a.m. ET on Sunday. Overnight projections of Irma's path showed less of a threat to the Carolinas as the monster storm appeared likely to move directly up the middle of Florida and curve inland."
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 12:48:51 AM
Florida nuclear plants to shut ahead of Hurricane Irma
•Electricity generator Florida Power & Light said it will shut its two nuclear power plants before Irma comes ashore as a very powerful hurricane.
•The Energy Department said late on Thursday that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission expects Turkey Point to close on Friday evening and St. Lucie to shut about 12 hours later, depending on the storm's path.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/08/florida-nuclear-plants-to-shut-ahead-of-hurricane-irma.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/08/florida-nuclear-plants-to-shut-ahead-of-hurricane-irma.html)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: miki on September 09, 2017, 01:00:16 AM
Sigmetnow, really thanks for all your posts.

Here is a link to the last post on Arctic News by Sam Carana. He mention the relation between Sandy hitting New York and major earthquakes hitting the coast off Vancouver in 2012.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/09/extreme-weather-is-upon-us.html (http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/09/extreme-weather-is-upon-us.html)

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/11/did-sandy-trigger-major-earthquakes-off-vancouver.html (https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/11/did-sandy-trigger-major-earthquakes-off-vancouver.html)



I don't think an association between tropical cyclones and earthquakes has been shown statistically, but maybe it should be revisited....


Mexico hit by 'strongest earthquake in a century' as magnitude 8.2 tremor triggers tsunami waves
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/08/mexico-earthquake-magnitude-8-tremor-rattles-buildings-capital/ (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/08/mexico-earthquake-magnitude-8-tremor-rattles-buildings-capital/)

How strong is Hurricane Irma? It’s registering on earthquake-detecting seismometers
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/article171359692.html (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/article171359692.html)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: morganism on September 09, 2017, 01:03:49 AM
Kelvin Waves and the Madden-Julian Oscillation

"Two particularly important wave types are the Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW), which circumnavigates the equator in about 15 to 20 days, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which transits the globe in 30 to 60 days.  These waves are normally initiated by large areas of thunderstorm activity over tropical regions, especially near India and southeastern Asia.  These waves are different in both frequency and direction of motion from the more well-known tropical waves that originate over Africa and often spawn tropical cyclones as they move westward across the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins.

Tropical cyclone formation often accompanies the passage of the “active phase” of either the faster-moving CCKWs or the slower-moving MJO.   Figure 1 shows tropical cyclone tracks over a 37-year period in active and inactive phases of the MJO as the wave moves around the globe, along with increased or decreased rainfall anomalies associated with the two phases of the MJO (Zhang 2013).

https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/author/esherard8/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 01:48:23 AM
So when, exactly, would be a good time for you? ::)

EPA chief on Irma: The time to talk climate change isn't now
http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/07/politics/scott-pruitt-hurricanes-climate-change-interview/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/07/politics/scott-pruitt-hurricanes-climate-change-interview/index.html)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 02:02:08 AM
miki, thanks for the links!

We've discussed the possibility of string storms causing earthquakes before on the forum, such as here:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,323.msg70415.html#msg70415 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,323.msg70415.html#msg70415)
... but I guess we have not yet found a convincing study of multiple events. :)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Ninebelowzero on September 09, 2017, 02:22:25 AM
Weather channels and such seem a bit shy of quoting maximum gust speeds now.

Have the hurricane chaser planes stopped flying?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 02:40:32 AM
Hurricane Irma: Fears over dike prompt evacuations south of Lake Okeechobee
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/fl-reg-scott-irma-okeechobee-20170908-story.html (http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/fl-reg-scott-irma-okeechobee-20170908-story.html)

Video:
Florida officials prep Lake Okeechobee for Hurricane Irma rain
Rachel Maddow reports on how Florida officials are trying to make room in Lake Okeechobee for the potential rainfall that could come with Hurricane Irma to avoid overburdening its aging dike.
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/florida-officials-prep-lake-okeechobee-for-hurricane-irma-rain-1042029123704 (http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/florida-officials-prep-lake-okeechobee-for-hurricane-irma-rain-1042029123704)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: TerryM on September 09, 2017, 02:47:07 AM
OT
The precipitation map above lead me to check the weather in Primm Nevada, site of the huge Ivanpah solar thermal facility.


http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Forecast.aspx?location=USNV9866 (http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Forecast.aspx?location=USNV9866)


Being located on a dry lake bed, in an area known for flash floods. tonight and tomorrows rains may give us an inkling of how the facility handles heavy runoff. 1.4" may not seem much in less desiccated locals, but if the rains fall in the right locations a wall of water could wash away much of the infrastructure.


Now back to the more important news from Florida.
Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 02:50:07 AM
Weather channels and such seem a bit shy of quoting maximum gust speeds now.

Have the hurricane chaser planes stopped flying?

Per 5 pm update, "Irma's intensity continues to fluctuate, and the
winds are estimated at 135 kt. The last minimum central pressure
was 925 mb. Another reconnaissance plane will check Irma soon."

Now seeing this:

I see an unflagged 142 kt SFMR reading, and the VDM estimates 145 kt sfc winds.  Looks like Irma is probably a cat 5 again.
https://twitter.com/tlyzawx/status/906316510049828864

NHC data (ATCF) has made Irma a category 5 hurricane again.
https://twitter.com/codyyeary/status/906315791750107137

Edit:
No bueno.
Pressure dropping. Eye contracting to 35 miles. Winds increasing at flight level.
https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/906316389845270528
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 03:01:19 AM
Eric Fisher, Chief Meteorologist @CBSBoston:
Cookies and beer for dinner. How was your week?
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericfisher/status/906316971876212737
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 03:12:45 AM
Depending on how many actually leave, Irma could now be the largest evacuation in U.S. history.
Previous: 3 million in Texas for Rita (2005)
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/906317595707691008 (https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/906317595707691008)

About 5.6 million Florida residents have been told to evacuate ahead of Irma
About 5.6 million people have been asked to leave their homes as Hurricane Irma approaches Florida, state emergency officials told the Associated Press.

Many of those evacuations are concentrated along the state's coasts and southern half, but people living farther inland, in substandard housing, have been asked to leave because of the storm, Florida's hurricane program manager Andrew Sussman told the news agency.

That would mean more than a quarter of Florida's population has been asked to get out of the destructive path Irma is expected to cut through the state once it makes landfall this weekend.

Public officials have been urging people to heed evacuation orders.

The Florida Division of Emergency Management has included a list of evacuation orders across the state, http://www.floridadisaster.org/info/ (http://www.floridadisaster.org/info/) 
https://www.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeednews/hurricane-irma (https://www.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeednews/hurricane-irma)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 03:31:07 AM
Within Irma's cone of uncertainty, there are 11 nuclear power plants and hundreds of hospitals.

What Lies In Irma’s Path
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-lies-in-irmas-path/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on September 09, 2017, 04:06:11 AM
Dvorak ADT (3rd column) suggests late intensification:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/goesrPG/11L-list-PG.txt (http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/goesrPG/11L-list-PG.txt)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 04:09:45 AM
This is an absolutely chilling quote from Ed Rappaport, acting director of the National Hurricane Center and veteran meteorologist.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/906332863297138688

NHC: "It's not clear that it's a survivable situation for anybody that is still there in the Keys"
https://twitter.com/stevencejas/status/906271647426113537
Video interview at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: budmantis on September 09, 2017, 05:10:55 AM
After the 5pm update yesterday on the NHC website, we decided to get out of dodge. Live in Zephyrhills, Fl. Left this morning at 5am and are now in Ocean Springs, MS to sit out the storm. We used secondary roads to reach I-10W. Traffic on the interstate was heavy with serious congestion off and on until we were well west of Tallahassee. Not bad after until we neared Mobile, AL. Upon arriving at our destination, we went to Chili's to eat and have a stiff drink!

P.S.: Several hours after leaving home I recalled that I left our lawnmower, bicycle and charcoal grill outside in the back of our place. Decided against going back, doh!

BudM
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: TerryM on September 09, 2017, 05:37:57 AM
After the 5pm update yesterday on the NHC website, we decided to get out of dodge. Live in Zephyrhills, Fl. Left this morning at 5am and are now in Ocean Springs, MS to sit out the storm. We used secondary roads to reach I-10W. Traffic on the interstate was heavy with serious congestion off and on until we were well west of Tallahassee. Not bad after until we neared Mobile, AL. Upon arriving at our destination, we went to Chili's to eat and have a stiff drink!

P.S.: Several hours after leaving home I recalled that I left our lawnmower, bicycle and charcoal grill outside in the back of our place. Decided against going back, doh!

BudM
Time for an electric lawnmower!


Stay safe
Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: oren on September 09, 2017, 07:49:44 AM
After the 5pm update yesterday on the NHC website, we decided to get out of dodge. Live in Zephyrhills, Fl. Left this morning at 5am and are now in Ocean Springs, MS to sit out the storm. We used secondary roads to reach I-10W. Traffic on the interstate was heavy with serious congestion off and on until we were well west of Tallahassee. Not bad after until we neared Mobile, AL. Upon arriving at our destination, we went to Chili's to eat and have a stiff drink!

P.S.: Several hours after leaving home I recalled that I left our lawnmower, bicycle and charcoal grill outside in the back of our place. Decided against going back, doh!

BudM
Good for you BudM. Better safe than worried, especially as the track shifted westward again.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Rob Dekker on September 09, 2017, 09:20:09 AM
Live in Zephyrhills, Fl. Left this morning at 5am and are now in Ocean Springs, MS to sit out the storm.

Zephyrhills appears to be right on the path of the eye of Irma, so good for you getting out !
I'm not sure if you can find your lawn mower once you get back though.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 09, 2017, 10:25:59 AM
It is almost surprising how there was a brief moment when Irma wasn't causing major damage.
Now Cuba's turn is up...
There is a little place called Ragged Island that just took the worst Irma has to offer.
Population 72, all descendants from original settlers apparently.
I can't imagine much is left of it by now if anything.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on September 09, 2017, 10:39:24 AM
Zephyrhills, Fl.

Zephyr - a gentle breeze. From Zephyrus, the Greek god of the West Wind.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 09, 2017, 11:00:35 AM
Everyone's probably seen this already, but if not, a short reminder of the situation after the hurricanes have passed: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2009228765754758&id=114517875225866
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 09, 2017, 11:52:12 AM
A plea for help from a St. Maarten resident, one of many.
José will have to make quite a turn to avoid Barbuda and possibly St. Maarten.
Nailbiting stuff.

Emile van der Weerd;
18 uur ·
Please try to get this in the news!!! Sept 11. Post Hurricane update: island is still in chaos, people are not poorly/not informed by government officials, no clear communication channels, no cars with megaphones trying to inform, help and advice, no water supply, no food supply, all supermarkets are compromised and empty by now. Although we see some marines at critical road junctions, security and safety is a major potential issue. People will do anything to get foods and water, even if this means to rob houses!! This WILL happen if we don't get more help from police/marines. They need to secure entrances of all areas and resorts!! It's also adviced to have food packages air drops from airplanes. The sooner, the better. Also I don't see any help from medical care and advice on how to deal with sanitair and waste, this WILL CAUSE epidemics if not managed and controlled. Is not clear to all (who dont have communication) what the next Hurricane José is about and how to prepare. We try to spread the news because due to all the debris, broken houses and expected heavy rain, this can be even worst than Irma. About us: we are still good and we will be for at least another week due to good supply. I am helping neighbours with their houses, safety and information distribution. I am trying to get hold of government to see if I can help organizing and prioritising. If someone reeds this, I have all the skills and spirit, I want to do MORE to help the people of Sint Maarten. I try to be online every day around this time so please PM me. With good spirit and Hugs for now and again, know I am triving and excelling in these situation.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: silkman on September 09, 2017, 12:13:00 PM
Road Town airport BVI.

I spent some time there back in the 90's. There were chickens on the runway then.

Just how you come back from this sort of impact I just can't imagine.....


Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 12:36:19 PM
Replies to this tweet are heartbreaking. Keys are likely to get a direct hit & some don't have the means to leave. 
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/906415370248052743

***THIS IS AS REAL AS IT GETS***

***NOWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SAFE***

***YOU STILL HAVE TIME TO EVACUATE***

Please RT. #Irma
https://twitter.com/nwskeywest/status/906266219304685568



NWS Key West:
 We are still here and we're safe, our office is rated to withstand a category 5 hurricane.
https://twitter.com/nwskeywest/status/906441740642607104

 We will be here for the duration, watching over the Keys.
https://twitter.com/nwskeywest/status/906441879213895680

5am:
A @FlKeysMosquito sensor on Lower Matecumbe Key recently recorded a wind gust of 66 mph (57 knots). #Irma #FLwx #FLKeys
https://twitter.com/nwskeywest/status/906441763556089856

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 12:40:16 PM
During times of high tide, water levels will be rising higher due to #Irma's approach @wsvn
https://twitter.com/PhilFerro7/status/906462761458257920
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 12:43:20 PM
5am update. Slight westward jog to the official track.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 12:45:39 PM
A drive through the streets of Barbuda. The damage is truly horrendous
https://twitter.com/BBCLBicker/status/906182294129565697
Brief video at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 12:50:07 PM
Charleston, South Carolina:

Surge #flooding in #Charleston harbor Monday could top that from #Matthew, only exceeded by Hugo, despite #Irma weakening by that time.
https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/906458907941523456
Data on top three historic crests at the link.

Today, high tide will occur ~ 10:40 AM (SC) & 10:50 AM (GA). Shallow coastal flooding will be possible 1-2 hours before & after high tide.
https://twitter.com/NWSCharlestonSC/status/906457245264859136
Tide gauge graphs at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 12:56:18 PM
While the threat of winds has decreased, there is now an increased risk of flooding #Irma @wsvn
https://twitter.com/PhilFerro7/status/906461438465769472
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 12:59:28 PM
If sheltering in place, gather your family in a safe, interior room with no windows #FLPrepares
https://twitter.com/FLSERT/status/906370340070313986
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 01:07:07 PM
[7 hours ago]: @FLGovScott urges people in west coast evacuation zones - from Manatee to Collier - to leave by noon tomorrow or find shelter.
https://twitter.com/MaryEllenKlas/status/906356438896922624 (https://twitter.com/MaryEllenKlas/status/906356438896922624)



Florida Governor Rick Scott’s evacuation order hits close to home
Gov. Rick Scott’s $15 million waterfront mansion is along a Naples coast that could get up to 12 feet of storm surge. He evacuated his family to Tallahassee on Friday. Naples Daily News
http://amp.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article172221727.html (http://amp.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article172221727.html)


Gov's office confirmed this morning that Scott's family *did* evac w/ him to gov's mansion in Tallahassee.
https://twitter.com/ByKristenMClark/status/906462054294462465 (https://twitter.com/ByKristenMClark/status/906462054294462465)

Edit: moved text to comment below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 01:33:20 PM
One has to ponder how the effects of Hurricane Irma might have been lessened if this climate change denying administration had acted differently.

Is man-made climate change real? Florida’s top GOP leaders won’t say
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article154026974.html (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article154026974.html)
[/quote]


Fun times at a Florida Senate budget subcommittee.

Awkward: Watch as Florida lawmaker mocks Rick Scott official for refusing to say ‘climate change’
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2015/03/awkward-watch-as-florida-lawmaker-mocks-rick-scott-official-for-refusing-to-say-climate-change/ (http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2015/03/awkward-watch-as-florida-lawmaker-mocks-rick-scott-official-for-refusing-to-say-climate-change/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on September 09, 2017, 03:14:52 PM
A plea for help from a St. Maarten resident, one of many.

I sent it to a Netherlands english language newspaper NLtimes.nl
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: logicmanPatrick on September 09, 2017, 03:25:25 PM
A plea for help from a St. Maarten resident, one of many.

I sent it to a Netherlands english language newspaper NLtimes.nl

Well done!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 04:10:55 PM
2.5 hours ago.

#Irma is located 225 miles south of Miami, but has already brought wind gusts of 50 mph to Miami. Dangerous weather already impacting S. FL
https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/906496248248758272
Radar GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 04:16:49 PM
The Florida interstates are "green" -- traffic is OK.
If you need help to get to a safe place, it is available!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 04:19:47 PM
Per gov't: Initial damage from one island in Turks and Caicos to exceed $500M
Cost of damage in the Caribbean from #Irma will be enormous.
https://twitter.com/SteveBowenWx/status/906509614333792256
Details at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 04:24:05 PM
South Carolina, just inland from the coast.

NWS Columbia:
Please RT so our guests can access life saving info when we issue watches, warnings, and advisories over the next several days. #Irma
https://twitter.com/NWSColumbia/status/906516114657746944
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 04:29:27 PM
Miami, Florida.

How forecasters will ride out Hurricane Irma at the National Hurricane Center
https://twitter.com/usatodayweather/status/906515809769607168 (https://twitter.com/usatodayweather/status/906515809769607168)
Photo below.

Article:
How forecasters will ride out Hurricane Irma
http://amp.usatoday.com/story/648545001/ (http://amp.usatoday.com/story/648545001/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 04:34:53 PM
SSTs about 1F above avg along the path. A little extra fuel for the fire? Yes. But the lack of shear would produce huge storm regardless.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/906249276174499840
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 04:43:36 PM
A reasonable worst case scenario has over half of Key West underwater due to storm surge
This is why @NWSKeyWest is saying to get out #irma
https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/906523899424333824


NWS Key West:
@ToddHarmeson @NWSDirector @NWS Our office is rated to handle a category 5 hurricane & an internal 220 mph+ storm bunker; elevated 15 feet above MSL. We save lives!
https://twitter.com/NWSKeyWest/status/906513636759408641

Shelter of Last Resort. No services available. Go there if you feel unsafe. #Irma #FLwx #FLKeys
Coral Shores HS; (MM89.9 ocean side)
Marathon HS; (MM 50 ocean side)
Sugarloaf School; (MM 19 gulf side)
Key West HS; (MM 2)
https://twitter.com/NWSKeyWest/status/906504118017171456
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 04:47:04 PM
Here is the latest Keys Tourism Advisory regarding category 4 Hurricane #Irma, as compiled and transmitted by @thefloridakeys. #FLwx
https://twitter.com/nwskeywest/status/906493583133495296
Image at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 05:01:41 PM
Latest surge forecast for #OaklandPark and #FtLauderdale  @NBC 6  #NBC6
https://twitter.com/AdamBergNBC6/status/906527229991153664 (https://twitter.com/AdamBergNBC6/status/906527229991153664)

Here is the lates surge forecast for #MiamiBeach and #NorthMiami. @NBC6 #NBC6
https://twitter.com/AdamBergNBC6/status/906528667655958530 (https://twitter.com/AdamBergNBC6/status/906528667655958530)

Here is the latest surge forecast for #SouthBeach and #Miami.
https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBergNBC6/status/906529057910685696 (https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBergNBC6/status/906529057910685696)

http://www.nbcmiami.com/weather/ (http://www.nbcmiami.com/weather/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 05:04:38 PM
11am EDT update

Hurricane #Irma has weakened to a Cat. 3 with max winds of 125 mph. Expected to re-intensify before hitting Florida.
https://twitter.com/afreedma/status/906533121952243713 (https://twitter.com/afreedma/status/906533121952243713)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/091457.shtml (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/091457.shtml)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 05:10:10 PM
I cannot overstate the severity of storm surge risk to west Florida. 8 ft Tampa, 10-15 ft #Naples/#FortMyers. If ordered to leave, GO! #Irma
https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/906532856259858432 (https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/906532856259858432)

The forecast for Tampa is looking increasingly dire.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/three-possible-scenarios-for-hurricane-irmas-landfall-in-florida-none-of-them-are-good (http://www.thedailybeast.com/three-possible-scenarios-for-hurricane-irmas-landfall-in-florida-none-of-them-are-good)
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/906534633357148163 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/906534633357148163)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 05:12:41 PM
All ECMWF ensembles show significant intensification once #Irma leaves Cuba.  Even though storm is slightly weaker, won't be for long.
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/906534996411904000
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Thomas Barlow on September 09, 2017, 05:56:58 PM
.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 06:27:07 PM
The Latest: Total asked to evacuate Hurricane Irma nears 7 Million
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/energy-environment/the-latest-alabama-issues-state-of-emergency-ahead-of-irma/2017/09/08/e0198e74-94f3-11e7-8482-8dc9a7af29f9_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/energy-environment/the-latest-alabama-issues-state-of-emergency-ahead-of-irma/2017/09/08/e0198e74-94f3-11e7-8482-8dc9a7af29f9_story.html)

Edit:
Potentially the largest evacuation in U.S. history.  No traffic tie-ups as of now on major highways.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 06:49:07 PM
Current worst-case storm surge (10-15ft) in Ft. Meyers/Naples area of SW Florida.
More than a million people live here, up >29% since 2010.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/906559020307230721
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 06:50:55 PM
Touch of good news...eyewall of Cat. 4 #Jose missed #Irma ravaged #Barbuda. (Radar: MeteoFrance)
https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/906558502470123520

And a by a pretty good distance too, also going to miss the other Irma-ravaged islands
https://mobile.twitter.com/TerpWeather/status/906560066974871552
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 06:52:10 PM
NHC 11am track

Peak winds Sunday

Miami-Dade & Broward
75-85 MPH

Upper Keys
85-90 MPH

Middle Keys
up to 130 MPH

Lower Keys
Up to 170 MPH
https://twitter.com/johnmoralesnbc6/status/906539456089509889
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 06:56:43 PM
#Irma in Florida will not be just a coastal event, and strong winds will occur outside the cone.  Widespread power outages likely.
https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/906560104711024648

NWS Miami:
A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Florida until 12 AM EDT
https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/906549736555077633
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Martin Gisser on September 09, 2017, 08:00:18 PM
Q: Most vulnerable city in U.S., 7th vulnerable globally, according to a recent World Bank study?
A: Tampa, FL
 ???
...and it seems they also got quite a real estate boom - at sea level. :o
Sorry for not being sorry, FL sooo deserves getting hit right there.

We might now be witnessing the first instance where Klimakatastrophe (as we say in German since the 1980ies) leads to financial catastrophe...
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Martin Gisser on September 09, 2017, 08:15:59 PM
Oh heck, maybe I shouldn't have said/thought that  :'(
Seeing live pictures from near Fort Myers on MSNBC. A huuuuge crowd of folks outside a stadium, seeking shelter. Eerily reminds me of New Orleans...
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 09, 2017, 08:50:58 PM
"Touch of good news...eyewall of Cat. 4 #Jose missed #Irma ravaged #Barbuda. (Radar: MeteoFrance)"

Thanks Sigmetnow for that.
Some crazy speculations about José aren't helping so far.
Hopefully some sort of sense of security now can be seen in this area on the islands.
What concerns me along with the rest so far is the situation on St. Maarten, involving the shortages and abandonment.
Very good news no double hit for them and Barbuda.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Martin Gisser on September 09, 2017, 08:59:45 PM
Tampa...

Great WaPo article from July 28, 2017:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/health/environment/tampa-bay-climate-change/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/health/environment/tampa-bay-climate-change/)
The area is due for a major hurricane, and it is not prepared. If a big one scores a direct hit, the damage would likely surpass Katrina.

Interview with author Darryl Fears:
https://www.marketplace.org/2017/09/06/economy/hurricane-irma-could-cause-serious-damage-tampa-bay (https://www.marketplace.org/2017/09/06/economy/hurricane-irma-could-cause-serious-damage-tampa-bay)
quoth
Ryssdal: Has to be said though, that for all the building that's happening, and all the the real estate deals that are happening in that area, there are some people trying to make folks pay attention.

Fears: Oh there are. And they are creating some awareness there and I think that they're going to get on the ball with this. But it takes a lot to ramp up resilience to climate change. It takes a great deal of work, and they're just not there yet.

Ryssdal: For all the work that is being done you point out and in fact you end the piece with this little tidbit, the real estate market in Tampa-St. Pete: booming.

Fears: It is hot, especially near the water and what people do in these areas near the coast, in most areas they require you if you build a new property to at least build three feet higher than the property that was there. And in this case you have rich people just buying middle-class people's homes, destroying them, and sticking a McMansion on the lot.

---------------------------
Hear Rick Scott's (R) political death knell in the distance? Yes, Mr. Pruitt (R-EPA), prolly not the time to talk about Holocene climate breakdown with you...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/09/07/at-a-moment-climate-change-is-hard-to-ignore-the-epa-is-being-pointed-elsewhere/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/09/07/at-a-moment-climate-change-is-hard-to-ignore-the-epa-is-being-pointed-elsewhere/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 11:26:04 PM
NHC 5p advisory says high confidence in track. Hard for Keys & SW Florida to avoid historically awful hurricane: 

Dangerous Hurricane Irma bears down on Florida, its brunt targeting the Keys to Tampa
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/09/dangerous-hurricane-irma-bears-down-on-florida-its-brunt-targeting-the-keys-to-tampa/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/09/dangerous-hurricane-irma-bears-down-on-florida-its-brunt-targeting-the-keys-to-tampa/)

https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/906628371634905088 (https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/906628371634905088)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 11:30:42 PM
Devastating scenarios: GFS & Euro model show #Irma landfall in vicinity Naples & Ft. Myers Sunday PM:
https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/906612717259251713
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 11:31:54 PM
Here are the lastest tropical weather advisories for Florida.  For more info, go to (link: http://www.cbsmiami.com/tropics (http://www.cbsmiami.com/tropics))
https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/906628442095063040 (https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/906628442095063040)

Edit:
Bryan Norcross, hurricane specialist: Really stunning to see entire Florida peninsula under hurricane warnings.  "I have never, ever seen something like that.  I really doubt, without looking it up in the history books, that has ever happened [before]. It's just unbelievable."
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 11:34:40 PM
This was the NHC forecast from MONDAY September 4. Amazing accuracy from the mets at NHC.
https://twitter.com/spann/status/906502559480860672
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 11:39:40 PM
New study: #HurricaneHarvey delivered widespread "25,000-year" rains & isolated "500,000-year" rains. (not a typo!!)
https://twitter.com/ClimateSignals/status/906519198733651969 (https://twitter.com/ClimateSignals/status/906519198733651969)

Hurricane Harvey – Extraordinary Flooding for Houston and Surrounding Areas
The analysis finds that Harvey brought 1,000-year rains over a 24-hour period over much of the Houston, Galveston, and areas extending east all the way to Louisiana.

In addition, the storm delivered wide-spread 25,000-year rains over a 120-hour period, and isolated locations witnessed 500,000-year rains over a 120-hour period. ...
  http://www.climatesignals.org/scientific-reports/hurricane-harvey-–-extraordinary-flooding-houston-and-surrounding-areas (http://www.climatesignals.org/scientific-reports/hurricane-harvey-–-extraordinary-flooding-houston-and-surrounding-areas)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 11:44:01 PM
 :o

How serious is #Irma threat in Tampa?  Propositioning of heavy track vehicles.
https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/906632996685586432

...Meanwhile in Tampa, I just heard a noise outside my house & grabbed my cell ... Now back to making the coffee
https://twitter.com/Tim_Dorsey/status/906620217127837698
Video at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 11:45:15 PM
NWS Miami:
*ALERT: There is imminent danger of life-threatening, CATASTROPHIC storm surge for SW #Florida. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately!
https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/906541991563075586
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 11:52:52 PM
Man in Key West -- who are you and why are you still there? Get out!
Southern-most point live webcam:  https://t.co/LxFqt81wjt
https://twitter.com/angelafritz/status/906633744559362052

The number of people on live cameras on Key West is astounding. Please realize that your actual life is in danger.
https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/906633628599422978

Hurricane #Irma reminding this guy in Key West he should have evacuated. #FirstAlertWX
https://twitter.com/wxgarrett/status/906619121823047680
Video at the link.

Edit:
That whole buoy will probably be underwater tomorrow morning
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/906632582896537600
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 11:57:06 PM
NHC Atlantic Ops:
There is an imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding in portions of central and southern Florida, including the Keys
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/906632682188234759
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2017, 11:58:02 PM
Reasonable worst case scenario of surge inundation in Ft. Myers, Fla fm @NHC_Atlantic. Red=greater than 9 feet [2.74 m] above ground. A lot of red.
https://twitter.com/afreedma/status/906632641423839232
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 12:02:11 AM
Geographic restrictions lifted on the Hurricane Irma livestream from @nbc6. Thanks to all who alerted me about that!
https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/Watch-Live-NBC-6-News-204316851.html (https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/Watch-Live-NBC-6-News-204316851.html)

https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/906632467033059328 (https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/906632467033059328)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 12:14:28 AM
#Irma is expected to produce heavy rainfall over much of Florida and Georgia @NWSWPC
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/906631816576208896
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 12:26:54 AM
Florida has some of the best building codes in the nation....unfortunately almost 80% of non Miami-Dade homes were built prior to enactment.
https://twitter.com/auburn_windengr/status/906293998536593413
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 12:34:32 AM
Royal Engineers and Marine Commandos have arrived in #tortola to help. One woman said she cried tears of joy to see help arrive
https://twitter.com/BBCLBicker/status/906646453849817088
Photo at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 12:37:11 AM
TORNADO WARNING for parts of Broward.  Check  (link: http://www.cbsmiami.com (http://www.cbsmiami.com)) cbsmiami.com

https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/906646450930581504 (https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/906646450930581504)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: logicmanPatrick on September 10, 2017, 12:45:08 AM
:o

How serious is #Irma threat in Tampa?  Propositioning of heavy track vehicles.
https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/906632996685586432

...Meanwhile in Tampa, I just heard a noise outside my house & grabbed my cell ... Now back to making the coffee
https://twitter.com/Tim_Dorsey/status/906620217127837698
Video at the link.

Check your twitter - CNN and CBS want to use your "noise outside my house".

Stay safe!!!!!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: morganism on September 10, 2017, 12:48:11 AM
Global Warming and Hurricanes
An Overview of Current Research Results

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/ (https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/)

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Martin Gisser on September 10, 2017, 12:50:36 AM
Man in Key West -- who are you and why are you still there? Get out!
Southern-most point live webcam:  https://t.co/LxFqt81wjt
https://twitter.com/angelafritz/status/906633744559362052

The number of people on live cameras on Key West is astounding. Please realize that your actual life is in danger.
https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/906633628599422978

Hurricane #Irma reminding this guy in Key West he should have evacuated. #FirstAlertWX
https://twitter.com/wxgarrett/status/906619121823047680
Video at the link.

Edit:
That whole buoy will probably be underwater tomorrow morning
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/906632582896537600
Lots of suicidals and stupid around there! MSNBC had some live coverage of a fire dept's last check of the floodplain.
Looks like were going to see scenes like after Katrina, dead corpses floating in the waters...
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Martin Gisser on September 10, 2017, 12:53:55 AM
Geographic restrictions lifted on the Hurricane Irma livestream from @nbc6. Thanks to all who alerted me about that!
https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/Watch-Live-NBC-6-News-204316851.html (https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/Watch-Live-NBC-6-News-204316851.html)

https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/906632467033059328 (https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/906632467033059328)
Not working in Germany. Not even this link: http://www.livenewsus.com/nbc-6-news-miami-live-stream/ (http://www.livenewsus.com/nbc-6-news-miami-live-stream/)

This one works: http://www.livenewsus.com/msnbc-news-live-stream/ (http://www.livenewsus.com/msnbc-news-live-stream/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: logicmanPatrick on September 10, 2017, 12:59:51 AM
Reporters: brave, or foolish?  I vote brave.

As Hurricane Irma spins into South Florida on Saturday, New Times staff are scattered across Dade and Broward counties to document the huge storm's impact on the region. We'll update this post all day long with the latest on the ground in the path of the biggest Atlantic hurricane on record.
http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/hurricane-irma-live-blog-9659109 (http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/hurricane-irma-live-blog-9659109)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 01:13:27 AM
Weather Channel Goes Into Overdrive Covering Back-to-Back Hurricanes
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/09/business/media/weather-channel-hurricane-irma.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/09/business/media/weather-channel-hurricane-irma.html)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 01:33:18 AM
:o

How serious is #Irma threat in Tampa?  Propositioning of heavy track vehicles.
https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/906632996685586432

...Meanwhile in Tampa, I just heard a noise outside my house & grabbed my cell ... Now back to making the coffee
https://twitter.com/Tim_Dorsey/status/906620217127837698
Video at the link.

Check your twitter - CNN and CBS want to use your "noise outside my house".

Stay safe!!!!!

Not sure where Tim is located, but he seems to be a tough sort of guy.  ;)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 01:35:08 AM
#Irma's pressure is down to 933 mb - the last U.S. landfalling hurricane with a lower pressure was Katrina & Florida landfall was Andrew.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/906623341179527168
Satellite GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 01:54:55 AM
Coordinated Response in Caribbean to Hurricane Irma Continues while Supporting Preparations in the U.S. Mainland
Staff from the FEMA Caribbean Area Division are on the ground in Puerto Rico to provide support to Commonwealth and local officials as requested.  Additionally, FEMA Incident Management Assistance Teams (IMAT) are deployed to the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and a FEMA Urban Search and Rescue Incident Support Team-Advance element and Virginia Task Force Two (VA-TF2) are on the ground on the U.S. Virgin Islands conducting operations.  Six Mobile Emergency Response Support (MERS) personnel also are deployed to support communications needs for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. ...
https://www.fema.gov/news-release/2017/09/09/coordinated-response-caribbean-hurricane-irma-continues-while-supporting (https://www.fema.gov/news-release/2017/09/09/coordinated-response-caribbean-hurricane-irma-continues-while-supporting)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 01:57:43 AM
Houston:
Eldridge and Enclave today, where Buffalo Bayou is receding. /cc @mattlanza @JeffLindner1 #houston #harvey
https://twitter.com/dtoio/status/906658736017690624
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 01:59:57 AM
Multiple tornado warnings already.

Areas of rotation are stacking up out in the Atlantic.  It will likely be a long night of bad weather.  Stay alert.
https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/906663717269635073
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 02:06:25 AM
The Weather Channel live in Miami.
Hurricane Irma has not yet started to move north from Cuba.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: logicmanPatrick on September 10, 2017, 03:02:02 AM
Hurricane Irma is literally sucking the water away from shorelines   Washingon Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-is-literally-sucking-the-water-away-from-shorelines/?utm_term=.a786a5dde247)

Explanation in article of how low pressure sucks water up and away from shorelines.

twitter picture. (https://twitter.com/deejayeasya/status/906327303646580736/photo/1)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 03:28:55 AM
Wow.  Miami storm video.

Intense #SouthBeach #SaturdayNight
#HurricaneIrma
#Curfew now.... 8p-7a
@WPLGLocal10
https://twitter.com/GlennaOn10/status/906678202508214272
Video at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 03:36:26 AM
At 9 pm EDT (0100 UTC), the center of Hurricane #Irma was 105 mi (170 km) SE of Key West, Florida.
Winds: 125 mph/205 km/h
Pressure: 932 hPa
https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/906684165466099712
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 03:41:55 AM
Hurricane Irma forecast wind field, from The Weather Channel.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 03:45:44 AM
Still a long ways out, but both of the latest GFS and ECMWF Operational models bring #Jose very close to the coastal East in 9-10 days
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/906694213949108225
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 03:49:14 AM
Probabilities to experience Hurricane force winds are rising over the coastal eastern cities not from #Irma impact, but from #Jose.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/906693505321402368
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 03:51:00 AM
Many locals park on bridge on ramps here in the Keys. This one is about 17 feet high.  #Irma2017 #bigpinekey
https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/906692987501121537
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 03:58:40 AM
Gator Park Preps 2,000 Alligators For Irma, Promises None Will Escape
"This isn't our first rodeo," a Gatorland official said as the Orlando theme park secured their animals ahead of the storm.
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_59b43351e4b0b5e531068aad/ (http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_59b43351e4b0b5e531068aad/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 04:01:41 AM
Truly is heartbreaking & frightening footage coming in from #USVirginIslands in the wake of #Irma
https://twitter.com/4ReUnitedStates/status/906686288862040064
Video at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Martin Gisser on September 10, 2017, 04:36:34 AM
Jose at the East Coast... Yeah, that place still missing in this summer's bouquet of all-American natural disasters. Bring it on. Lets see what the Trumplins have to say. And there seem to be actually potent Dems in DC who learned how to play debt ceiling pork. What a great year at this circus!  8)

More popcorn, and a barf bag or two...
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Martin Gisser on September 10, 2017, 05:21:41 AM
(https://scontent.ftxl1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/21462443_10212046484591688_4191482583085622428_n.jpg?oh=870cb20fd3909aa2cfff356fb7d3751e&oe=5A51D2B1)

...

(https://scontent.ftxl1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t31.0-8/21414950_1062386057231626_8408941824167201135_o.jpg?oh=af163e924e4174d9469beac96b8ae1bc&oe=5A4E42DA)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Martin Gisser on September 10, 2017, 06:06:43 AM
Man in Key West -- who are you and why are you still there? Get out!
Southern-most point live webcam:  https://t.co/LxFqt81wjt
https://twitter.com/angelafritz/status/906633744559362052

The number of people on live cameras on Key West is astounding. Please realize that your actual life is in danger.
https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/906633628599422978

Hurricane #Irma reminding this guy in Key West he should have evacuated. #FirstAlertWX
https://twitter.com/wxgarrett/status/906619121823047680
Video at the link.

Edit:
That whole buoy will probably be underwater tomorrow morning
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/906632582896537600
Lots of suicidals and stupid around there! MSNBC had some live coverage of a fire dept's last check of the floodplain.
Looks like were going to see scenes like after Katrina, dead corpses floating in the waters...
This time not just fat (american malnourished) blacks, but also gymmed white male "tough guys"... (if the gators and the debris haven't shred them)   :o  :-[ :-X

Heck, and Rush Limbaugh seems to have escaped it!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: TerryM on September 10, 2017, 10:43:27 AM
Some video out of Cuba.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=le4yL0hTelI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=le4yL0hTelI)


The worst hurricane in 85 years apparently.
Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: logicmanPatrick on September 10, 2017, 10:58:02 AM
Some video out of Cuba.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=le4yL0hTelI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=le4yL0hTelI)


The worst hurricane in 85 years apparently.
Terry

Thanks for the link.  I appreciate YouTube links.  I don't do twitter and the video links just throw up a 'can't play' error on my computer.  I can see all the other stuff, pictures, hilarious replies to Trump that he never reads, etc.  ;D

That video reminded me of when I was little: Sheerness, February 1953 - big waves!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: logicmanPatrick on September 10, 2017, 11:03:05 AM
Sigmetnow: a reminder of last year, on earthquakes and hurricanes.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1574.msg94908.html#msg94908 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1574.msg94908.html#msg94908)

Given how the seismographs get pretty active when a hurricane nears land, I guess there must be a link.  It tends to wake a sleeping tiger when you rattle its cage.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 10, 2017, 11:47:08 AM
Here is an update on the status of Irma as of 5am EDT on Sunday Sept 10 2017.  The images show: Satellite, Radar, Storm Track & Storm Surge, respectively.  Irma is currently a Cat 4 as it hits the Florida Keys and heads towards Tampa.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 10, 2017, 12:05:06 PM
Here are two nullschool wind velocity images captured at 6am EDT on Sunday Sept 10 2017 showing conditions at the surface and at 250 hPa, respectively.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 12:11:34 PM
6am

The eye wall is just 6 miles from th Lower Keys.  This is the strongest part of the storm.  Get ready. #Flwx
https://twitter.com/craigsetzer/status/906820485035515904
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 12:16:47 PM
For 1st time: looking at 2 consecutive Cat 4 landfalls in USA.  #irma will put the worst hit on Keys since Donna in 1960 on same date 10Sept
https://twitter.com/jimcantore/status/906812793554432000
Radar GIF at the link shows Irma headed north.

Only 6 Cat. 4+ #hurricanes have tracked within 75 mi. of Key West in the historical record. #Irma will be the first since Donna 1960.
https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/906813636412309504

Irma's central pressure has fallen to 928mb. Only 6 hurricanes in U.S. history have been more intense at landfall. Last: Katrina (2005).
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/906813989140692993

Table of all U.S. landfalling hurricanes on record with pressure <933 mb - #Irma's current pressure.  All these storms were devastating.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/906624429030989824
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: TerryM on September 10, 2017, 12:19:40 PM
Some video out of Cuba.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=le4yL0hTelI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=le4yL0hTelI)


The worst hurricane in 85 years apparently.
Terry

Thanks for the link.  I appreciate YouTube links.  I don't do twitter and the video links just throw up a 'can't play' error on my computer.  I can see all the other stuff, pictures, hilarious replies to Trump that he never reads, etc.  ;D

That video reminded me of when I was little: Sheerness, February 1953 - big waves!


I have the same problems with many American links. Are they practicing for an upcoming digital curtain?, or is it just my refusal to drop AdBlock Plus.  ::)
I've been to Havana and hope they make it through this without too much damage. It's a fabulous island supporting a remarkable culture.
Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 12:20:07 PM
5am update

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 12:26:59 PM
Tornado threat

5:07am CDT #SPC_MD 1636 , #flwx, (link: https://go.usa.gov/xRFJQ) go.usa.gov/xRFJQ
https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/906821348210741248
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 12:31:08 PM
Solar storms continue.

#AR12673, responsible for recent G4 storm, still produces nice eruptions. Hope EIS caught this M1.1 flare with global dimming, wave and CME.
https://twitter.com/halocme/status/906739706980790272
GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 12:36:04 PM
Some people in Florida have already had enough of Irma.

As the gusts increase this afternoon and overnight, please remember that @nbc6 radio partners @WIOD & @Y100MIAMI would simulcast my reports.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/906527156473356289

@Y100MIAMI stopped simulcasting around 2:00 am. Someone came on the air saying that he was tired of hurricane news and started playing music
https://twitter.com/the_real_rc_70/status/906819129071546368

(Hurricane simulcast apparently resumed later.)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 12:41:31 PM
Another perspective on the wind gradients.

Strong 1032 mb high centered over Great Lakes leading to steep pressure gradient in Southeast. 25 knot gusts all the way to Savannah, GA.
https://twitter.com/anthonywx/status/906828944309186561
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 12:46:49 PM
Yes, but...
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 12:50:16 PM
3-day precipitation.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 12:52:29 PM
Consequences.

Many trees with young oranges and grapefruits will have them ripped off. Price increases everywhere.
https://twitter.com/growingwisdom/status/906826182729060352
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 12:57:27 PM
Like a 60-mile-wide tornado.


***HEADS UP LOWER KEYS***

***EXTREME WIND WARNING IN EFFECT***

***SWATHS OF TORNADO-LIKE DAMAGE LIKELY***

https://twitter.com/NWSKeyWest/status/906824832033181696
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: logicmanPatrick on September 10, 2017, 01:21:03 PM

-snip-

I have the same problems with many American links. Are they practicing for an upcoming digital curtain?, or is it just my refusal to drop AdBlock Plus.  ::)
Terry

I don't use adblockers.  This works for me: there's no place like home. (http://winhelp2002.mvps.org/hosts.htm)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 10, 2017, 02:19:47 PM
A bit of GFS perspective on tiny Keys and big storms here;
(changes underwear)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: bligh8 on September 10, 2017, 03:21:15 PM
Communications out of St. John is still a bit sketchy with no formal phone service.  According to the link the damage from Irma  was devastating.  St. John is 60% National
Park, with about 6000 inhabitants.  There are neither deep-water ports nor airstrips; so, importing raw materials for infrastructure or building is limited. There is an inviting
deep undercurrent of artist and craftsman that largely defines the atmosphere at St. John.

Several years back I spent some time on St. John, mostly moored in Great Lamashur Bay
Where I did some volunteer work at VIERS an environmental resource station located back into the tropical bush and not visible from the Lamashur Bay moorings. VIERS attract students from all over the world to do environmental research. There is nothing visible day or night, from the anchorage, no buildings, roads or lights & there in lies the charm, Without the hoards of tourist or the massive infrastructure of St. Thomas, this place was quiet, peaceful and inviting.  I did carpenter work at VIERS and some set-up
for field experiments, in return I was offered three meals a day and a free mooring.
There is no public transportation to this part of the island, so either you walk or move your boat….I walked and enjoyed the tropical beauty.

Perhaps this coming December I’ll sail down again and help re-build VIERS I’m sure there will be plenty to do.

http://www.islands.org/viers/ (http://www.islands.org/viers/)
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-devastates-us-virgin-islands-but-their-sense-community-is-unwavering.html (http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-devastates-us-virgin-islands-but-their-sense-community-is-unwavering.html)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 06:01:52 PM
Eerie scene in Key Largo, Florida as ocean recedes amid Hurricane #Irma, leaving boat sitting on dry land
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/906894718407139328
Video at the link.

Edit -
NHC Surge:
Don't be fooled by low water conditions on the FL W coast ahead of Irma, water will rapidly surge back when the winds change direction
https://twitter.com/NHC_Surge/status/906910362800443392
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 06:04:24 PM
Storm surge inundation in the Brickell area of Miami.
https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/906907750436888577

Report of two feet (.61m) of storm surge flowing swiftly through the strrets.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 10, 2017, 06:12:06 PM
Here is an update circa 11:45am EDT (the current storm surge forecast at Naples is up to +15 ft), showing: a thermal satellite image, a visible light satellite image, the storm track and the HWRF model forecast at landfall (with 928 mb central pressure):
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 06:13:14 PM
Looking back to Sept. 7 forecast.  National Hurricane Center did an amazing job at projecting Irma's future track.

This was the furthest east the NHC brought the cone.  The area that hit the Keys and SW FL is still in it.
https://twitter.com/codyyeary/status/906912256428048390
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 06:16:14 PM
See the rotation icons inside the white circles?
Those are cell that may have rotation. Storms moving WNW 50mph
https://twitter.com/IreneSans/status/906911980581244928
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 06:23:03 PM
Metamorphosis complete!  ;D

We're #DoingAScience in #Irma2017 w/ 60 mph winds. @addisonalford and I are getting close to professionals at soundings. @NOAANSSL @OUCIMMS
https://twitter.com/MesonetMan/status/906868342564311040
Video at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 06:30:33 PM
He looks exhausted and close to tears.

Bill South, an official from the @NWS in Key West, says there hasn’t been a hurricane in Key West that’s been anything like this since 1919
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/906823206702538752
Video at the link.  Interview, with B-roll of storm scenes.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 06:34:49 PM
A perspective for Europeans to understand just how big hurricane Irma is.

[Source of the comparison: (link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/09/06/heres-how-big-irma-would-be-where-you-live/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/09/06/heres-how-big-irma-would-be-where-you-live/) )]
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 06:39:56 PM
Use the USGS Flood Event Viewer to track the impacts of #HurricaneIrma
https://stn.wim.usgs.gov/fev/#IrmaSeptember2017

https://twitter.com/USGS/status/906910150304428033
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 06:44:16 PM
Harvey & #Irma made US landfall as major hurricanes ~15 days apart.  Record between US major hurricane landfalls is 23 hours set in 1933.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/906920370925576193

Recent hours of Irma IR satellite GIF at link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 06:45:33 PM
Storm tide (storm surge + tide) in Naples bottoming out ~5-6 ft below typical highest tide. Forecast is 10-15 ft *above* highest tide. #Irma
https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/906920354421059584
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 10, 2017, 06:47:18 PM
Here is the Windy forecast for Jose on Tuesday Sept 19 2017.  All it takes is for the forecasted storm track to migrate westward (as happened for Irma) for Jose to effect New York:
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 06:55:47 PM
“Two dozen tower cranes working on construction sites throughout the city were a concern ahead of Irma. Moving the massive equipment, weighing up to 30,000 pounds, is a slow process that would have taken about two weeks, according to city officials.”

Huge crane atop Miami high-rise collapses in Irma's winds
http://abcnews.go.com/amp/US/wireStory/huge-crane-atop-miami-high-rise-collapses-irmas-49742240 (http://abcnews.go.com/amp/US/wireStory/huge-crane-atop-miami-high-rise-collapses-irmas-49742240)

Need to get engineers working to design new crane technology, immediately! 
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 06:58:52 PM
Irma is not a her. Harvey was not a he. They're both its. Hurricanes don't have genders.
https://twitter.com/toweringCU/status/906906867074519041
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 07:02:50 PM
Incredible video but not very wise! #Irma
     https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/906924998673264640

@JustonStrmRider tearing it up!
https://twitter.com/SimonStormRider/status/906843778824187904
Man v. Hurricane, video at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 07:06:59 PM
Storm surge.

This is what it looks like right now at my hospital... #HurricaneIrma
https://mobile.twitter.com/JessilynMorales/status/906923271102320641
Brief video at the link.


Edit:
Water still rising in downtown Miami along Brickell Avenue. Storm surge is intense. Neck deep in areas. @wsvn #HurrcaneIrma
https://twitter.com/BrianEntin/status/906920269402558464
Video at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 07:08:44 PM
 :o

House is on stilts about 15' high!  Can see tops of palms.  Pic FL Keys (Cudjoe Key) #Irma #FLwx
https://twitter.com/ChrisSuchanKCTV/status/906919231643639809
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 07:14:52 PM
Antigua Met Service
Sint Maarten areal footage of #Irma damage.

Video footage of #SintMaarten in the wake of #Irma
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7c/Schade_op_Sint_Maarten_na_orkaan_Irma.webm

https://twitter.com/anumetservice/status/906922831392493576
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 07:27:50 PM
Current visible satellite image for the southeastern United States. #ncwx #scwx #flwx #gawx
https://twitter.com/stormcoolio/status/906921567141208065
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 07:35:14 PM
Video shows a water spout off the coast of Fort Lauderdale as #HurricaneIrma slams Florida.
Live updates: https://t.co/xuFW1tm27N

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/906930536094076929
Video at the link. Clear foreground; Opaque wall of rain/clouds in background.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 07:42:13 PM
Windows are cracking due to the hurricane-force winds in downtown Miami. #Irma
     https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/906925721586733057

Our window just cracked. Moving to other side of building. #Irma
https://twitter.com/giobenitez/status/906901511434903553



#StormSurge wasn't modeled to be this high along the #Miami River. Not even an evacuation zone! Up  to 3 ft and rising #Irma #HurricaineIrma
https://twitter.com/toddkimberlain/status/906926221744906242
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on September 10, 2017, 10:53:53 PM
Marcos Island .... 6-9 feet underwater, 17,134 housing units, median sales price $525,000 based on 181 home sales, could run to $8 billion not counting infrastructure damage.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 11:17:02 PM
Storm tide has risen 5.5 ft in an hour at #Naples. Now about a foot about ground. Remember the forecast is for 10-15 ft above ground! #Irma
https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/906987715840933890

Surge rising now.  The Weather Channel reported a three-foot (1m) rise in 18 minutes.

Streets flooding in downtown Naples in the eye of #HurrcaneIrma
https://twitter.com/stormtimelapse/status/906985877687107589
Video at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 11:19:35 PM
5pm update:  Irma is downgraded to a Category 2.

LOCATION...26.2N 81.8W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

Peak winds 110 mph, Category 2, BUT produced 142 mph gust in Naples last hour.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 11:24:18 PM
I don't think any meteorologist has ever seen so many rotating cells with a hurricane/tropical storm...absolutely incredible. #Irma
    https://twitter.com/JWatson_Wx/status/906986266910183425

See. If Sharknado was actually to happen, this is what it would look like.
https://twitter.com/wxmeddler/status/906971198449430528

This is easily the most supercell hook echo couplets I've ever seen in one radar image.
     https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/906976498644647937
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 11:31:03 PM
JOSE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWEST

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 66.9 West. Jose is moving toward
the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). This motion is expected to
continue tonight with a slowing of forward speed on Monday. Jose
will begin turning toward the northeast Monday night, followed by a
more eastward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Jose will
remain well to the east of the Bahamas for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195
km/h) with higher gusts.  Jose is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Additional weakening is
forecast, but Jose is forecast to remain a hurricane during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 11:35:38 PM
#Irma's spent 8.5 days as a major hurricane - 2nd only to Ivan (2004) for major hurricane days by an Atlantic TC in satellite era (>=1966)
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/906986884802342912
7-hour IR satellite GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on September 10, 2017, 11:48:42 PM
Yet to hear anyone express solidarity with Marcos Island yacht owners, damage must be vast.

http://www.yachtworld.com/boats/category/type/builder/model/country/Marco+Island (http://www.yachtworld.com/boats/category/type/builder/model/country/Marco+Island)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2017, 11:51:03 PM
Did a tornado just whip passed Mike Bettes on live television? Holy crap.
https://twitter.com/wxdam/status/906987300239933446
Brief video at the link.


Edit:
Interesting little mini-vortex behind him here. Great footage, but hope he's OK and safe. #Irma
   https://twitter.com/windbarb/status/907000616668614656

Clearer capture. Nice eye
https://twitter.com/WxDeFlitch/status/906993512125812736
Brief video at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2017, 12:04:34 AM
Manatee rescued: More pics of #Irma storm survivors helping a manatee stranded when storm surge pulled water out. @ActionNewsJax
https://twitter.com/PaigeANjax/status/906996604326092801
More photos at the link.

Edit:  herding flamingoes  ;D
"Single-file line, just like in elementary school!" Flamingos being moved to safe areas at @BuschGardens.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BN9/status/906925600044146689
Video at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 11, 2017, 12:29:18 AM
Power outages are now over 2.5 million across Florida:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/09/hurricane-irma-power-outages/ (http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/09/hurricane-irma-power-outages/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2017, 02:37:36 AM
Yet to hear anyone express solidarity with Marcos Island yacht owners, damage must be vast.
<snip>


Given the week+ warning, many will have moved their boats to a safer harbor. (Or hired a crew to do it for them. ;) ).  Or simply moved well out to sea.  Marine Traffic only shows one boat currently on Marcos Island (having a recently active nav ident)  -- ironically named "Free At Last"....

Which brings to mind this video of sailboats at Key West which lost their mooring and drifted away:  :(
  Sailboats broke free and floating away !! I hope no one was in those sailboats. #KeyWest #HurricaneIrma
https://mobile.twitter.com/miketheiss/status/906617125342732290

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2017, 03:02:45 AM
8pm NHC update track essentially the same as 5pm.  Irma is moving slightly east of previous track.

Seems like some good news out of Naples this evening with surge "only" topping out around 7 feet instead of 10-15. #Irma
https://twitter.com/WxDepo/status/907038376628510721

Citrus production would take a big hit:
#WXFIT Irma continues to track east of latest guidance and is an increasing threat to Orlando and central Florida
https://twitter.com/slazmo/status/907042547788390400
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2017, 03:13:42 AM
Tampa Bay helping to protect Tampa from the worst #Irma surge.  Bay has been draining over 36 hrs.  Surge occurs over 9 hrs. Thank you bay!
https://twitter.com/RLuettich/status/907043206554058752
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2017, 03:17:20 AM
Millions, especially on the west coast of Florida, will be without power for weeks.

Florida Power & Light official predicts "wholesale rebuild" of electrical grid on FL coast, possibly "longest restoration...in US history"
https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/906995053381300225
Video interview at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: aperson on September 11, 2017, 06:03:08 AM
JAX region flood gauges are already at high values with several hours more of heavy rain to go: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jax (http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jax)

I think the impacts of a predecessor rainfall event weren't made clear enough earlier. There is very high CAPE all the way through the Atlantic region into the Gulf stream that the convective bands are drawing from.

GOES-16 precipitable water loop makes it easy to see the scope of this region of convection in near real time: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-10-96-1-10 (http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-10-96-1-10)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Artful Dodger on September 11, 2017, 02:05:30 PM
TFW ur Dodging a Bullet (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUyNqgsWH4g).

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2017, 03:18:22 PM
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, South Carolina
#Irma is a tropical storm, but tropical storm force winds now extend 400 miles from the center. Be prepared for gusts over 40 mph this PM!
https://twitter.com/NWSGSP/status/907221235431624705

180,000 Georgia power customers without power in Georgia. 61,000 in Savannah/Chatham according to outage map.
https://twitter.com/WXMinh/status/907220568130375681
Outage map at the link.

Here's a summary of tornado activity so far with Hurricane #Irma. Closing in on 100 tornado warnings. Map by @mapgirl18.
https://twitter.com/USTornadoes/status/907222218861678593

Here's a 'final' graph of my computed largest tornado warning days for Florida.
https://twitter.com/akrherz/status/907225012242972672

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2017, 03:24:50 PM
Vilano Beach is on the east coast of Florida, south of Jacksonville.

A home in Vilano Beach [has fallen into the water in this brief storm video]. News4JAX is working to learn more.
https://twitter.com/wjxt4/status/907225013614497792
Video at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2017, 03:32:59 PM
Spoke to [Jacksonville] Mayor @lennycurry. We are aggressively working to get Jax search and rescue teams to help with flooding.
https://twitter.com/FLGovScott/status/907220762234368000

Jax Fire/Rescue Crews have been pulling citizens out of flooded homes all night
https://twitter.com/rwyse/status/907225083629973505


Georgia:
Highest tidal #flooding expected at midday high tide today in #Charleston & Ft. Pulaski, GA, exceeding #Matthew.  [more: https://t.co/DTbrdJ7raV  ]
https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/907223967626350592
First image below.

Savannah, GA is forecast to have record water levels/surge this afternoon. High tide is just after 12:30pm. #Irma
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/907223023333384192
Second image below.



Annndddd this is why you don't go stand in the barren tidal zones before the winds flip around and surge the water back in!
     https://twitter.com/Jarallen/status/907022768704823296

#Naples storm tide update. Now approaching 4 ft above ground as of 6:24 ET. #Irma #Florida
https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/907011237992652800
Third image below.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2017, 03:35:40 PM
Florida Keys status report. Found on Reddit. r/tropicalweather
https://twitter.com/IrishEagle/status/907069250950582272
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2017, 03:39:45 PM
#UKaid delivered 5 tonnes urgently needed food and water from @cdemacu to British Virgin Islands last night on @RoyalAirForce flight #Irma
https://twitter.com/DFID_UK/status/907195295095762945
First image below. More photos at the link.

Here's a snapshot of federal support in the U.S. Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico for Hurricane #Irma.
https://twitter.com/fema/status/907047452590723072
Second image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2017, 03:47:24 PM
Winds and storm surge forecasts.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/094751.shtml?wsurge#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/094751.shtml?wsurge#contents)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 11, 2017, 07:00:02 PM
TFW ur Dodging a Bullet (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUyNqgsWH4g).

It is a sad truth that the USA dodged the bullet, by only taking a $290 billion hit from Harvey & Irma.  We (the USA) are playing Russian Roulette with hurricanes, which (as Hansen warned in 'Storms of My Grandchildren') cannot end well:

Title: "Hurricanes Harvey, Irma could cost US economy $290 billion, estimate says"

http://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricanes-harvey-irma-cost-us-economy-290-billion/story?id=49761970 (http://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricanes-harvey-irma-cost-us-economy-290-billion/story?id=49761970)

Extract: ""We believe the damage estimate from Irma to be about $100 billion — among the costliest hurricanes of all time. This amounts to 0.5 of a percentage point of the GDP of $19 trillion," Myers said. "We estimated that Hurricane Harvey is to be the costliest weather disaster in U.S. history, at $190 billion, or 1 full percentage point of the GDP.""
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Archimid on September 11, 2017, 07:08:00 PM
And is being paid with borrowed money. What happens to that debt as natural disaster start outpacing reconstruction efforts?

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Thomas Barlow on September 11, 2017, 07:17:36 PM
Hurricane JOSE projection - from today, up to Saturday 16th shown here.
This could spin off into Atlantic, but if it gets close to Florida again, the evacuation will be interesting / a headache for officials / non-existent / chaos? ? ?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2017, 07:39:06 PM
Hurricane JOSE projection - from today, up to Saturday 16th shown here.
This could spin off into Atlantic, but if it gets close to Florida again, the evacuation will be interesting / a headache for officials / non-existent / chaos? ? ?

GFS currently shows Jose brushing North Carolina and running up the coast to New Jersey and Philadelphia on Sept. 19/20.  Almost as if the planet is saying, "What part of the U.S east coast have I not destroyed yet?"  :o
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2017, 07:42:38 PM
This is not a “new normal.” There is no more normal.

Harvey and Irma aren’t natural disasters. They’re climate change disasters.
https://grist.org/article/harvey-and-irma-arent-natural-disasters-theyre-climate-change-disasters/ (https://grist.org/article/harvey-and-irma-arent-natural-disasters-theyre-climate-change-disasters/)




Miami's Republican mayor to Trump: "If this isn't climate change, I don't know what is."
More of this, please.
#Irma
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article172080587.html (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article172080587.html)

    https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/907272597909450752 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/907272597909450752)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2017, 07:49:55 PM
Wow. Jacksonville, FL is experiencing a record coastal flood right now from Irma—and the water is still rising. JAX is 500mi from Key West.
    https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/907296559964008448

Proving how difficult and damaging water can be. Record flooding in Jacksonville, FL continues. St Johns river unable to empty.
https://twitter.com/ttrogdon/status/907295964553203713
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2017, 07:55:13 PM
Now up to 7M customers without power in Florida & Georgia alone.
Nearly 2/3rds the entire state of Florida.
(Sandy = 8.1M in 17 states)
     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/907294337066729473

Florida Hurricane #Irma Power Outage Numbers as 9/11/2017 11:51 AM
https://twitter.com/flsert/status/907272748719906816
Detailed data at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2017, 08:00:33 PM
From Cuba to ~now.

~48 hour radar loop of Irma's trek across Florida. A stunning, life-altering storm.
(via @BMcNoldy)
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/907168978015068160 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/907168978015068160)
Radar GIF at the link.

... those blue spots over cities are the radars picking up the tops of trees, etc at night, called "ground clutter"
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/391/ (http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/391/)
    https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/907268497859907585 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/907268497859907585)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Daniel B. on September 11, 2017, 08:22:19 PM
This is not a “new normal.” There is no more normal.

Harvey and Irma aren’t natural disasters. They’re climate change disasters.
https://grist.org/article/harvey-and-irma-arent-natural-disasters-theyre-climate-change-disasters/ (https://grist.org/article/harvey-and-irma-arent-natural-disasters-theyre-climate-change-disasters/)





Miami's Republican mayor to Trump: "If this isn't climate change, I don't know what is."
More of this, please.
#Irma
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article172080587.html (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article172080587.html)

    https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/907272597909450752 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/907272597909450752)

There is no "normal" hurricane season.  They are all different.  Atlantic activity was low over the past decade.  That changed dramatically this year.  That said, there has been little change in tropical cyclone activity over the years.  2017 is just about average for the last 30 years.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/ (http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/)

Personally, I would prefer to hear more from scientists about climate change, than from politicians.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: GeoffBeacon on September 11, 2017, 09:04:12 PM
Daniel B

I felt a bit insensitive asking this earlier but since we are now on the explanations

Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis (https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-es-13-tropical-cyclones.html) said

   
Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes and Typhoons)

    Mid-latitude Storms
    Model projections show fewer mid-latitude storms averaged over each hemisphere, associated with the poleward shift of the storm tracks that is particularly notable in the Southern Hemisphere, with lower central pressures for these poleward-shifted storms.


Is the prediction, "fewer mid-latitude storms", from 2007 still valid or have the changes in the jet stream due to Arctic warming changed the story?

Could this be true? In 2007 IPCC predicted fewer but more powerful hurricanes but now the jet stream weakness allows more to start.  I suppose the next few years will tell - or climate science a bit beyond me.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2017, 09:21:43 PM
Surge flooding in Charleston, South Carolina.

More insane raw video of the flooding on market Street. The water is moving quick enough to take your legs out from under you @LIVE5WEATHER
https://twitter.com/ChuckVegasAdam/status/907308664293380101
Video at the lnk.

This is White Point Garden is Downtown Charleston! Inundated with saltwater.
https://twitter.com/Aaron_Maybin/status/907306771538214912
Video at the link.

#JamesIsland footage at high tide. Docks in previous video all gone. Surge much higher than hurricane #Matthew. #Irma2017 #chswx #chsnews
https://twitter.com/petermccoyforsc/status/907293714179088384
Video at the link.


Hilton Head, South Carolina:
Hudson's Seafood on Hilton Head is more-or-less underwater. Thanks to Joey Grice for submitting this photo. #Irma
https://twitter.com/kasiakovacs/status/907315354132779010
Photo at the link.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2017, 09:26:22 PM
Georgia:
Flooding on Tybee Island. Pics from @Tybee_PD #irma
https://twitter.com/WSAVBenS/status/907311731675992065 (https://twitter.com/WSAVBenS/status/907311731675992065)
Photos at the link.

Florida:
NEWS Miami Airport closed on Monday after suffering significant damage from hurricane #Irma (link: http://ift.tt/2xZ3Tve (http://ift.tt/2xZ3Tve))
https://twitter.com/airlivenet/status/907310273819582464 (https://twitter.com/airlivenet/status/907310273819582464)
Photo at the link.

For those contemplating driving around (down)town [Jacksonville] today...this seems to be a recurring theme. #JSO recommends not.
https://twitter.com/JSOPIO/status/907312958161784834 (https://twitter.com/JSOPIO/status/907312958161784834)
Photo below.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2017, 09:30:42 PM
Tropical Storm Irma Over the Southeastern U.S. at 12:30 p.m. EDT - from NASA's Terra satellite. 
https://twitter.com/NASAHurricane/status/907315075261886464
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2017, 09:32:47 PM
#Irma stripped entire Caribbean islands, turning them from lush green to dead brown.
   https://twitter.com/ClimateSignals/status/907315421941919744 (https://twitter.com/ClimateSignals/status/907315421941919744)
More: http://www.climatesignals.org/resources/hurricane-irma-turns-caribbean-islands-brown-natural-hazards (http://www.climatesignals.org/resources/hurricane-irma-turns-caribbean-islands-brown-natural-hazards)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: crandles on September 11, 2017, 09:47:52 PM
Is the prediction, "fewer mid-latitude storms", from 2007 still valid or have the changes in the jet stream due to Arctic warming changed the story?

Could this be true? In 2007 IPCC predicted fewer but more powerful hurricanes but now the jet stream weakness allows more to start.  I suppose the next few years will tell - or climate science a bit beyond me.

If you are going to talk hurricanes and tropical storms as opposed to mid latitude storms, then may as well quote the relevant bit:

Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes and Typhoons)
Results from embedded high-resolution models and global models, ranging in grid spacing from 100 km to 9 km, project a likely increase of peak wind intensities and notably, where analysed, increased near-storm precipitation in future tropical cyclones. Most recent published modelling studies investigating tropical storm frequency simulate a decrease in the overall number of storms, though there is less confidence in these projections and in the projected decrease of relatively weak storms in most basins, with an increase in the numbers of the most intense tropical cyclones.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 11, 2017, 11:07:50 PM
The linked article indicates that NOAA expects up to about a 100% increase in the number of Cat 4-5 Atlantic hurricanes during the 21st century, due to global warming; while the distribution of such intense hurricanes over this century depends on the radiative forcing pathway and on climate sensitivity.

Title: "Global Warming and Hurricanes
An Overview of Current Research Results"

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/ (https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/)

Extract: "One modeling study projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century …"
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Thomas Barlow on September 11, 2017, 11:31:27 PM
Tropical Storm Irma Over the Southeastern U.S. at 12:30 p.m. EDT
Wow !
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: crandles on September 11, 2017, 11:37:58 PM

Could this be true? In 2007 IPCC predicted fewer but more powerful hurricanes but now the jet stream weakness allows more to start.  I suppose the next few years will tell - or climate science a bit beyond me.

fwiw
Atlantic:
Season_______ ACE______TS_____HU____MH
            
1950-2016___ 101.16____ 11.25___ 6.22__ 2.66
1979-2016___ 103.32____ 12.26___ 6.39__ 2.61
2006-2016____ 98.09____ 14.09___ 6.36__ 2.73
2005-2016___ 110.75____ 15.25___ 7.08__ 3.08

East Pacific:
Season   ACE   TS   HU   MH
            
1971-2016   129.96   16.52   9.30   4.48
1979-2016   132.55   16.82   9.32   4.58
2006-2016   129.36   17.55   9.73   4.91
2005-2016   126.58   17.33   9.50   4.67

If anything the numbers seem to be higher after 2005. Note that inclusion or exclusion of a single year (such as 2005) can have quite a large effect on the numbers.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Martin Gisser on September 12, 2017, 12:01:53 AM
Looks like Florida wasn't hit as bad as expected. Cuba saved Florida the worst, it seems, as it slowed down Irma from 5 to 4.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2017, 12:10:19 AM
Hemingway's house and cats spared by Hurricane Irma
http://www.latimes.com/books/jacketcopy/la-et-jc-hemingway-hurricane-20170911-story,amp.html (http://www.latimes.com/books/jacketcopy/la-et-jc-hemingway-hurricane-20170911-story,amp.html)


Florida Keys Residents Demand To Get Back Home As Officials Call The Islands A "Humanitarian Crisis"
It could be weeks before residents who abandoned their homes following the mandatory evacuation are allowed back.
“Monroe County is closed until further notice,” an official tweet from the county sent Monday read. Sheriff Rick Ramsay called for a dusk-to-dawn curfew until further notice, citing safety conditions.

“The wind may have stopped blowing, but for most of the Florida Keys, there is no fuel, electricity, running water, or cell service. For many people, supplies are running low and anxiety is running high,” a statement posted on Monroe County’s website reads.

Military airborne missions conducted by C-130 cargo planes are carrying supplies and recovery personnel to the area, the Air Force has been deployed, and Monroe County Emergency Management Director Martin Senterfitt said “disaster mortuary teams” are en route to the Keys to assess aid the recovery process.

There is no power, water, or flushing toilets, Key West City Manager said during a conference call with local, state, and federal officials on Monday, according to the Miami Herald.

One major issue is the condition of the string of bridges that connect the miles of islands, which have to be inspected by the Department of Transportation.

"We have not assessed the structural integrity of the bridges there. There's some early reason to believe that some of the draw bridges that were up may or may not have been bent. Restoring those is going to take some time,” Bossert said.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/amberjamieson/florida-keys-residents-want-to-return-home (https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/amberjamieson/florida-keys-residents-want-to-return-home)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2017, 12:47:32 AM
Roads.

Hurricane IRMA Obstacle Course on I-10 in Florida
https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=U8b0p-gJRAw


Heavy rains and water moving rapidly can erode underneath roads. Imagine coming up to this at night? #Irma #TurnAroundDontDrown
https://twitter.com/WRNAmbassadors/status/907368275994128386
Video at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2017, 12:53:09 AM
 Too much water – – or absence thereof.

Charleston, South Carolina:
https://twitter.com/erinspencer93/status/907349443816689664
First image below.

Jacksonville, Florida:
This is an incident of historic proportions. The St. Johns River has not seen these flooding levels since 1846. #HurricaneIrma #JaxReady
https://twitter.com/CityofJax/status/907340606804054016
Second image below.

Mobile, Alabama:
Wind from TS #Irma pushing water out of Mobile Bay, AL. leaving the USS Alabama WWII floating museum surrounded by mud.
https://twitter.com/BaronWeather/status/907360176818343936
Third image below.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2017, 12:54:41 AM
This may be the first time a spaghetti model actually looks like a bowl of spaghetti ... #Jose
https://twitter.com/SusanTullyNBC/status/907359639561531392
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2017, 01:26:44 AM
Monday ~7pm:

Current Irma-related power outages:

Florida: 6,500,000
Georgia: 1,000,000
South Carolina: 720,000
Alabama: 40,000

Total: >8.2 million.
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/907381483521937408

Irma is now the worst weather-related power outage in US history, beating Sandy (8.1 million in 17 states).
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/907381766188683264
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: J Cartmill on September 12, 2017, 01:29:03 AM
Sentinel Image of Jose showing breaking waves in the eye

https://qz.com/1074212/hurricane-jose-high-res-satellite-images-through-the-eye-of-jose-the-atlantics-next-big-storm/ (https://qz.com/1074212/hurricane-jose-high-res-satellite-images-through-the-eye-of-jose-the-atlantics-next-big-storm/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Rob Dekker on September 12, 2017, 05:07:00 AM
And now for some fun : Irma providing gifts :
https://twitter.com/Laneify/status/907352795707265029
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: nicibiene on September 12, 2017, 09:03:30 AM
Anybody watching this? Typhoon touching Shanghai and going to Japan...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/09/15/0600Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-236.85,24.65,1355/loc=123.554,26.308
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Artful Dodger on September 12, 2017, 10:30:57 AM
It is a sad truth that the USA dodged the bullet, by only taking a $290 billion hit from Harvey & Irma.  We (the USA) are playing Russian Roulette with hurricanes, which (as Hansen warned in 'Storms of My Grandchildren') cannot end well

Hi ASLR.

Thank-you for taking a moment to reply to my brief comment. I surely appreciate all the work you've done helping provide accurate coverage of these increasingly dangerous storms. Indeed, Hansen's book has been on my mind these last 2 weeks as we watch these unfolding disasters.

A childhood friend of mine moved to Sugarland, TX (west suburbs of Houston) about 20 years ago and was flooded out last week by Harvey.  I recall him telling me about 5 years ago that 'there might be something to this global warming stuff'.

In a sense, it is the trap all wealthy nations fall into: unwilling to change anything in the short run, but willing to risk everything in the long run. Sad.

Indeed, the Denier-in-Chief will soon be golfing at his lightly-touched Palm Beach pair-a-dice, oblivious to the growing risk surrounding it.

I guess that makes us (collectively) his fossil fools.   :'(
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Daniel B. on September 12, 2017, 02:50:09 PM
Daniel B

I felt a bit insensitive asking this earlier but since we are now on the explanations

Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis (https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-es-13-tropical-cyclones.html) said

   
Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes and Typhoons)

    Mid-latitude Storms
    Model projections show fewer mid-latitude storms averaged over each hemisphere, associated with the poleward shift of the storm tracks that is particularly notable in the Southern Hemisphere, with lower central pressures for these poleward-shifted storms.


Is the prediction, "fewer mid-latitude storms", from 2007 still valid or have the changes in the jet stream due to Arctic warming changed the story?

Could this be true? In 2007 IPCC predicted fewer but more powerful hurricanes but now the jet stream weakness allows more to start.  I suppose the next few years will tell - or climate science a bit beyond me.

It may still be too early to conclude anything.  However, the following graphs do not support these claims. and neither do the number.

(https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/sotc/tropical-cyclones/2015/annual/NAT_ace_2015.png)
(https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/sotc/tropical-cyclones/2012/annual/NAT_storms_2012.png)

Much has been made of two major hurricanes hitting the U.S. coast this year.  Yet, historically, the U.S. has gotten hit by a major once every two years.  That was more frequent in years past; once every 1.5 years from 1940-1970, and less frequently today.  Interestingly, from 2000-1016, 7 majors hit the U.S., all within a 13-month period in 2004-05. 
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2017, 03:39:59 PM
“And it goes without saying that there will never be another Hurricane Irma.  The World Met. Org. will retire the name at the end of the year”
    https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/907445740032552960


Final summary of some of the meteorological records/milestones set by #Irma has been posted:
https://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/09/Hurricane-Irma-Records.pdf
    https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/907449528466464770
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: crandles on September 12, 2017, 03:49:05 PM
Maybe it is too soon to assess effects of Harvey on oil production and consumption, but latest short term Energy outlook, doesn't seem to be showing any effects from Harvey.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.cfm (https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.cfm)

Too soon to tell or no significant effect?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2017, 03:49:58 PM
4-hour loop of experimental GOES-16 imagery shows remnants of Irma over the Midsouth early this morning
https://twitter.com/NWSMemphis/status/907583450126974976
GIF at the link.

Satellite shows power outages in Florida. Last night compared to normal. Note some clouds did cover some lights.
Courtesy NOAA JPSS/CIMSS
https://twitter.com/WCYB_Ricky/status/907286128448995328
Second and third images below.

7.2 million still without power from #Irma.  This is down about a million from the peak of the storm.
https://twitter.com/JacquiJerasTV/status/907582653406347264
Data at the link.

Jacksonville Sheriffs Office:
We hope the 356 people who had their lives saved yesterday will take evacuation orders more seriously in the future. #Irma #HurricaneIrma
https://twitter.com/JSOPIO/status/907578329146036224


Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2017, 03:59:30 PM
Over the next 5 days, here is the @NHC_Atlantic forecast track for Hurricane #Jose.
https://twitter.com/GarySzatkowski/status/907586724850802688
First image below.

Pasta sauce all warmed up and ready to go?  Great.  Here is your morning serving of 00Z GFS 'spaghetti' plot for #Jose.
https://twitter.com/GarySzatkowski/status/907585853396054017
Second image below.

But our attention is drawn to the inevitable scary outlier:
UKMET (which handled #Irma fairly well) continues to target #Florida with #Jose next weekend. Interests in FL should continue to monitor
https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/907586090546200576
Third image below.


Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2017, 04:04:28 PM
Manila floods as tropical depression slams Philippines
The storm came ashore in the province of Quezon with winds of only 60km/h, but the amount of rain it packed was phenomenal.

As the depression tracked west across Luzon island, Alabat was hit by 538 millimetres [21 inches] of rain, Ambulong 315mm and Tayabas 238mm. Manila recorded 200mm of rain, making some roads impassable.

The floodwater inundated homes and businesses, becoming neck-deep in places. Authorities ordered the evacuation of residents in some towns submerged by floodwater in Quezon and Laguna, where 13 people were reported missing.

The torrential rain also triggered a landslide in Taytay, a municipality just 20km from Manila, which killed at least two people according to local media. ...
http://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2017/09/manila-floods-tropical-depression-slams-philippines-170912093316483.html (http://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2017/09/manila-floods-tropical-depression-slams-philippines-170912093316483.html)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 12, 2017, 04:06:35 PM
TFW ur Dodging a Bullet (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUyNqgsWH4g).

It is a sad truth that the USA dodged the bullet, by only taking a $290 billion hit from Harvey & Irma.  We (the USA) are playing Russian Roulette with hurricanes, which (as Hansen warned in 'Storms of My Grandchildren') cannot end well:

Title: "Hurricanes Harvey, Irma could cost US economy $290 billion, estimate says"

http://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricanes-harvey-irma-cost-us-economy-290-billion/story?id=49761970 (http://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricanes-harvey-irma-cost-us-economy-290-billion/story?id=49761970)

Extract: ""We believe the damage estimate from Irma to be about $100 billion — among the costliest hurricanes of all time. This amounts to 0.5 of a percentage point of the GDP of $19 trillion," Myers said. "We estimated that Hurricane Harvey is to be the costliest weather disaster in U.S. history, at $190 billion, or 1 full percentage point of the GDP.""

I have maintained for several years here that climate change will only be addressed when the disasters are so severe in the U.S. that people demand so. We are not there yet but cracks are showing.

http://crooksandliars.com/2017/09/no-one-major-networks-talking-about (http://crooksandliars.com/2017/09/no-one-major-networks-talking-about)

We need more violent and devastating events to occur on a regular basis. Deaths from hurricanes cannot number in the dozens. They need to routinely number in the thousands. Coastal cities must not be left in a state of disrepair that may take a decade to repair. They must be rendered permanently uninhabitable. Wildfires mustn't burn through a summer season, destroying hundreds of homes. They need to burn continuously for a couple of years, burning multiple midsize communities to the ground. Droughts that decimate crops and necessitate water rationing are entirely inadequate. We need major cities to run completely out of water, requiring it to be trucked in.

Then we will see action.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2017, 04:16:11 PM
@femaregion2 working with @US_GSAR2 to get life-saving supplies to VI on the SS Wright #hurricaneimra
https://twitter.com/FEMAregion3/status/907293366248984579
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: crandles on September 12, 2017, 04:18:02 PM

We need more violent and devastating events to occur on a regular basis.

Be careful what you wish for .....
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 12, 2017, 04:28:40 PM

Could this be true? In 2007 IPCC predicted fewer but more powerful hurricanes but now the jet stream weakness allows more to start.  I suppose the next few years will tell - or climate science a bit beyond me.

fwiw
Atlantic:
Season_______ ACE______TS_____HU____MH
            
1950-2016___ 101.16____ 11.25___ 6.22__ 2.66
1979-2016___ 103.32____ 12.26___ 6.39__ 2.61
2006-2016____ 98.09____ 14.09___ 6.36__ 2.73
2005-2016___ 110.75____ 15.25___ 7.08__ 3.08

East Pacific:
Season   ACE   TS   HU   MH
            
1971-2016   129.96   16.52   9.30   4.48
1979-2016   132.55   16.82   9.32   4.58
2006-2016   129.36   17.55   9.73   4.91
2005-2016   126.58   17.33   9.50   4.67

If anything the numbers seem to be higher after 2005. Note that inclusion or exclusion of a single year (such as 2005) can have quite a large effect on the numbers.

The way you have presented this data likely understates the increase that has occurred since 1950. I would think that if the numbers were broken out in decades, the trend upwards would be more obvious although there might be some fluctuations, decade to decade.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2017, 04:29:13 PM
Maybe it is too soon to assess effects of Harvey on oil production and consumption, but latest short term Energy outlook, doesn't seem to be showing any effects from Harvey.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.cfm (https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.cfm)

Too soon to tell or no significant effect?

That link may still be showing August 8 data? 

Oil tankers (in red) are once again flowing across the Gulf.  Given the oil glut before Irma, I doubt we'll see more than a blip in production.  I have not seen any stories warning of refinery damage causing huge cuts in fuel output.  As you say, it may be early yet.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 12, 2017, 04:35:08 PM

We need more violent and devastating events to occur on a regular basis.

Be careful what you wish for .....

The sooner, the better.

We need a titanic shift in the politics of climate change and it needs to occur immediately. The longer this is delayed, the worse it will get. It is not enough for these disasters to hit Pakistan or Nepal. Most Americans don't give a shit about anyone other than themselves. The threats and actual damage from climate change must be horrific and very, very personal.

We need to have a barrier island with million dollar homes not simply damaged but washed completely away, carried out into the Atlantic, never to be seen again.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 12, 2017, 04:47:52 PM
A childhood friend of mine moved to Sugarland, TX (west suburbs of Houston) about 20 years ago and was flooded out last week by Harvey.  I recall him telling me about 5 years ago that 'there might be something to this global warming stuff'.

In a sense, it is the trap all wealthy nations fall into: unwilling to change anything in the short run, but willing to risk everything in the long run. Sad.

Indeed, the Denier-in-Chief will soon be golfing at his lightly-touched Palm Beach pair-a-dice, oblivious to the growing risk surrounding it.

I guess that makes us (collectively) his fossil fools.   :'(

Lodger,

I hope you keep posting on our collective fossil foolishness  :o.

The linked CNN article focuses on the geographic politics of states (including Texas) where many jobs are still tied to a fossil fuel economy vs states (like the East & West Coasts) where jobs are tied to post-fossil fuel economies (including the 4th Industrial Revolution); as the reason that we might as well be shouting into a hurricane wind before the GOP will take appropriate political action.

Title: "Why Republicans are frozen on climate change"

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/12/politics/why-republicans-are-frozen-on-climate-change/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/12/politics/why-republicans-are-frozen-on-climate-change/index.html)

Extract: "But more important than either of these factors may be the geographic divide. From Congress through the White House, the Republican Party now relies overwhelmingly on the states that are the most deeply invested in the existing fossil fuel economy -- and thus feel the most threatened by any initiative to reduce carbon emissions. That includes not only the states that produce the most fossil fuels like oil and coal, but also the Rust Belt states that consume large quantities of coal-fired electricity for manufacturing."

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 12, 2017, 04:50:55 PM
And before I am accused of not caring for others, I would like to say that the pictures of the damage are heartbreaking.

The fact is we are simply getting a taste of what is in store and everyone here except for our closeted trolls know this. (And I am not certain that they don't believe this. They might very well be on the payroll of the fossil fuel industry.)

The solution to climate change is political. Lets have a string of ridiculously bad years over the next decade so that we can get down to business.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2017, 05:07:21 PM
<snip>

The solution to climate change is political. Lets have a string of ridiculously bad years over the next decade so that we can get down to business.

My feeling is that the world will get on board and switch to actively addressing climate change, well before the catastrophes you describe.  But disasters will happen anyway (because we waited too long to act aggressively), and that will be even more depressing.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2017, 05:08:39 PM
Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

Headlines in the @myrtlebeach newspapers yesterday as storm surge moved in... #IRMA
https://twitter.com/andysteinwx/status/907611224975622144
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2017, 05:14:01 PM
Before and after satellite imagery show how #Irma stirred up the ocean and is causing runoff in South Florida
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/907611357230624768
GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2017, 05:23:05 PM
NW PACIFIC -NASA Finds a Tail on Typhoon Talim
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2017/talim-phillipine-sea (https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2017/talim-phillipine-sea)

https://twitter.com/NASAHurricane/status/907623501451993090 (https://twitter.com/NASAHurricane/status/907623501451993090)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2017, 05:29:11 PM
San Francisco Bay, California

Why the #BayArea thunderstorms? Sufficient moisture, instability, & lift/dynamics due to a persistent upper-level low off the coast. #CAwx
https://twitter.com/SFmeteorologist/status/907625632934137856
GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: crandles on September 12, 2017, 05:30:26 PM
The way you have presented this data likely understates the increase that has occurred since 1950. I would think that if the numbers were broken out in decades, the trend upwards would be more obvious although there might be some fluctuations, decade to decade.

I wanted to compare data after 2007 report (which probably didn't use 2005/2006? data). Not sure whether data prior to satelites ~1979 is consistent data so that was broken off.

But if you want it a different way:

Pacific Typoon basin is much more consistent with IPCC predictions.

Atlantic
Season   ACE_____ TS______ HU____ MH
1971-79   110.89   14.56   8.89     4.00
1980-89   137.70   18.70   10.00  4.60
1990-99   164.80   15.70   9.90     5.50
2000-09   94.70   15.90   7.20  2.90
2010-16   144.00   18.00   11.00  5.71

East Pacific
Season   ACE   TS   HU   MH
1971-79   110.89   14.56   8.89   4.00
1980-89   137.70   18.70   10.00   4.60
1990-99   164.80   15.70   9.90   5.50
2000-09   94.70   15.90   7.20   2.90
2010-16   144.00   18.00   11.00   5.71

Pacific Typhoon
Season   TD   TS   Ty   STy
1970-79   35.30   26.10   15.30   3.10
1980-89   44.80   27.10   15.50   2.80
1990-99   42.00   27.40   13.80   4.90
2000-09   41.80   24.00   14.30   5.10
2010-16   39.29   23.86   12.00   5.29

All above basins:
Season   TS   H/Ty
1971-79   50.33   29.44
1980-89   55.00   30.70
1990-99   54.00   30.10
2000-09   55.00   28.90
2010-16   56.86   29.86

Basically more variabilty shown (no surprise) and not much trend apart perhaps in Super Typhoons but there the numbers are low.

These numbers don't mean much. But so far it is not looking like a resounding success for these 2 IPCC predictions.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 12, 2017, 05:30:50 PM
More trouble looming in the Pacific for Vietnam, China, Taiwan and Japan coming days.
Some bizarre reports down here today from St. Maarten describing a crazy situation happening at the Zoo.
It seems hungry people are raiding it taking monkeys and snakes for food.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Martin Gisser on September 12, 2017, 05:54:37 PM
The solution to climate change is political. Lets have a string of ridiculously bad years over the next decade so that we can get down to business.
Alas. And alas it's not the bad disasters in themselves that might convince people. What is needed is a critical mass of economically ruined lifes.  Irma and Harvey could be very "helpful" here:

It is no serious problem for the rich folk to get a new car and a new American cardboard house --. But how are those living from paycheck to paycheck going to get up on their feet again? Suddenly there's a million more "welfare queens" down at rock bottom. And a lot of them are white. That could be the motivation for demanding serious change.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Canadensis on September 12, 2017, 06:05:20 PM
Graph showing the 15 most powerful cyclones to make landfall by wind speed (mph) and year of occurrence. No longer once per decade, now averaging one per year. Based on graph from Jeff Masters' Wunderground article covering Irma.

https://scontent-yyz1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/21314684_10155185986833920_6807664637122190754_n.jpg?oh=e736206c4922e58d96b83762a68b9147&oe=5A1697C7
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Daniel B. on September 12, 2017, 06:13:55 PM
Graph showing the 15 most powerful cyclones to make landfall by wind speed (mph) and year of occurrence. No longer once per decade, now averaging one per year. Based on graph from Jeff Masters' Wunderground article covering Irma.

https://scontent-yyz1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/21314684_10155185986833920_6807664637122190754_n.jpg?oh=e736206c4922e58d96b83762a68b9147&oe=5A1697C7

Why all the cheering for more and worse natural disasters?  One would think that people would hope that the worst predictions are wrong, and that changes are manageable. 
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: crandles on September 12, 2017, 06:18:06 PM

That link may still be showing August 8 data? 


Oops yes thanks

2017 world production now showing 98.26 down from 98.42 for 2017.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 12, 2017, 06:51:50 PM

We need more violent and devastating events to occur on a regular basis.

Be careful what you wish for .....

USA politics do have an effect globally, i guess the republicans still want to drown the Netherlands.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Canadensis on September 12, 2017, 07:04:56 PM
Daniel B, my previous post contains a link to a graph that suggests that cyclones may be increasing in strength while the debate about frequency continues.
  I have know idea why you would see anything in that comment to suggest
I was "cheering".
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: John Batteen on September 12, 2017, 07:19:22 PM
Shared Humanity, would it not be better to hope for people to come around without the need for disaster?  That's what I'm hoping for anyway.  We've seen an awful lot of destruction already this year.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2017, 07:38:36 PM
Pope blasts climate change doubters: cites moral duty to act
ABOARD THE PAPAL PLANE (AP) — Pope Francis has sharply criticized climate change doubters, saying history will judge those who failed to take the necessary decisions to curb heat-trapping emissions blamed for the warming of the Earth.

Francis was asked about climate change and the spate of hurricanes that have pummeled the U.S., Mexico and the Caribbean recently as his charter plane left Colombia on Sunday and flew over some of the devastated areas.

“Those who deny this must go to the scientists and ask them. They speak very clearly,” he said, referring to experts who blame global warming on man-made activities. ...
https://apnews.com/4f1f546c7c774b928b3a069095f66f3d/Pope-blasts-climate-skeptics,-cites-'moral'-duty-to-act


(If you are wondering about the Pope's appearance in the article's photograph:  the Pope bumped his head in the Pope-mobile yesterday while waving to crowds.)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Martin Gisser on September 12, 2017, 07:41:38 PM
John, there is no hope whatsoever for serious climate reason since at least 2009. Katrina was 2005...

Example from Louisiana:
"The small Louisiana town of Cameron could be the first in the US to be fully submerged by rising sea levels – and yet locals, 90% of whom voted for Trump, still aren’t convinced about climate change" https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/18/louisiana-climate-change-skeptics-donald-trump-support (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/18/louisiana-climate-change-skeptics-donald-trump-support)

"As the seas around them rise, fishermen deny climate change" http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/20/us/louisiana-climate-change-skeptics/index.html (http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/20/us/louisiana-climate-change-skeptics/index.html)


Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2017, 07:55:59 PM
Florida Keys

Click here for the latest information from the Monroe County Emergency Management
http://www.monroecountyem.com/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=129 (http://www.monroecountyem.com/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=129)
     https://twitter.com/NWSKeyWest/status/907653270591688705 (https://twitter.com/NWSKeyWest/status/907653270591688705)


Residents allowed back into Upper Keys only.  Road repairs underway.  Hospitals working to reopen.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2017, 07:58:53 PM
#Irma is only 3rd Atlantic named storm since 1880 to form N of 15N, E of 40W and make US landfall as hurricane.  2 others: Sea Islands & Ike
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/907655245257334784

Irma is 64th Atlantic named storm to form N of 15N, E of 40W since 1880, so odds of US hurricane landfall when forming there are about 5%.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/907655245257334784
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 13, 2017, 12:15:38 AM
Before and after satellite imagery show how #Irma stirred up the ocean and is causing runoff in South Florida
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/907611357230624768
GIF at the link.

Has to be a lot of organic material in that. Could this extra material result in an algae bloom?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 13, 2017, 12:27:06 AM
Shared Humanity, would it not be better to hope for people to come around without the need for disaster?  That's what I'm hoping for anyway.  We've seen an awful lot of destruction already this year.

Absolutely. It would be wonderful if policy makers would react to the science behind AGW which was 1st proposed in the early 1800's resulting in a general consensus in the early 1980's but here we are, extracting fossil fuels at a record pace.

We need to essentially stop burning all fossil fuels in about 3 decades. This will take nothing less than a massive, world wide Marshall Plan. All of the moneyed interests are lined up against such a response. Anything less will doom humanity to a future that is too dreadful to imagine.

We need to be shocked into action and deadly global catastrophes are the only way this will happen....say a deadly heatwave in the Southwest U.S. that kills 150,000.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 13, 2017, 03:06:29 AM
Before and after satellite imagery show how #Irma stirred up the ocean and is causing runoff in South Florida
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/907611357230624768 (https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/907611357230624768)
GIF at the link.

Has to be a lot of organic material in that. Could this extra material result in an algae bloom?

And worse, I imagine.  Health warnings abound:

Miami-Dade health department: Stay out of ocean at beach — it may be dirty
http://amp.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/miami-beach/article172970191.html (http://amp.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/miami-beach/article172970191.html)

https://twitter.com/MiamiHerald/status/907760992997855233 (https://twitter.com/MiamiHerald/status/907760992997855233)


Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 13, 2017, 03:08:19 AM
Some Keys residents return home but full scope of damage still unfolding
http://amp.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article172969686.html (http://amp.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article172969686.html)

Tom Ross looks at his beachfront condo-was 3 stories-pancaked by #Irma Upper Fla Keys opened to residents 2day.
https://twitter.com/OrmistonOnline/status/907741026995130368 (https://twitter.com/OrmistonOnline/status/907741026995130368)
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 13, 2017, 03:12:57 AM
Florida flooding continues to increase in some areas.

Central Florida lake levels going up in many places, causing many problems for surrounding residents Post #Irma.
https://twitter.com/IreneSans/status/907756876984614913
GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 13, 2017, 04:18:24 AM
Why all the cheering for more and worse natural disasters?  One would think that people would hope that the worst predictions are wrong, and that changes are manageable.

Hope for the best, but prepare for the worse.

Edit: No one would fly in an airplane designed by an engineer who assumed forcing only from the most favorable weather conditions.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Daniel B. on September 13, 2017, 02:44:12 PM
Daniel B, my previous post contains a link to a graph that suggests that cyclones may be increasing in strength while the debate about frequency continues.
  I have know idea why you would see anything in that comment to suggest
I was "cheering".

My apologies.  I meant to quote the poster who was hoping for more destructive storms so that stronger actions would be taken.  My mistake.  Sorry.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 13, 2017, 04:12:47 PM

My apologies.  I meant to quote the poster who was hoping for more destructive storms so that stronger actions would be taken.  My mistake.  Sorry.

I understood your comment was directed towards me and we could continue this conversation here but it is off topic. I too wish that we would react aggressively to AGW and essentially stop the use of fossil fuels by 2050. This will not happen unless we are shocked into action and, in my last comment, I suggested a heatwave in the American Southwest that kills 150,000 could be useful in that regard. This certainly reads as a brutally callous remark and the number is grotesque but a 2003 heat wave in Europe killed 70,000 and it barely registered in the American consciousness.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_European_heat_wave
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Alexander555 on September 13, 2017, 06:21:50 PM
Shared Humanity: I think we will get shocked into action. I life in West-Europe, in the middle between the north and the south. You could say the border between a soft and a hard winter. Here you can see very good that the winter is moving to the North. Because that border is also a natural border for many animals like insects. They can not survive a hard winter, not 20 years ago. But today many insects are moving to the north at a very high speed, because the winter is moving to the north. And when i was young, a little further to the North, in Holland. They had some outdoor ice scating competition ( elfstedentocht), The last time was maybe 20 years ago. Because the ice is to thin, or there is no ice at all. Before that we had it almost every year. So the winter is moving further north. And the oceans are warming deeper and deeper. And that  makes these oceans like food baskets for hurricanes. In the future they will call Irma a baby hurricane. And that will shock the world. Because of all the disaster and financial damage. Many of these places that are sensitive for hurricanes are investor markets,near the warm beach , and the prices of all that real-estate will go to zero.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: etienne on September 13, 2017, 06:22:45 PM
Sorry for my supid comment, but I believe that when a heatwave will kill 150'000 people in the American Southwest, it will be too late for everybody.

With "an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth" concept, you only get blind and toothless people.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Archimid on September 13, 2017, 06:25:54 PM
 
Five Dead After Florida Nursing Home Goes Without Air Conditioning After Irma

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/13/us/nursing-home-deaths-florida.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/13/us/nursing-home-deaths-florida.html)

Five people are dead and 115 have been evacuated to a local hospital from a nursing home that had no air conditioning following Hurricane Irma, the police said Wednesday.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on September 13, 2017, 06:56:51 PM
a heatwave in the American Southwest that kills 150,000 could be useful in [[waking people up]]
Well, that would be the homeless in Phoenix or Yuma, or a weeklong power failure affecting gas pumps (as nearby Flagstaff is 7000'). Everyone else has AC or a swamp cooler: home, car, parking lot, work, stores. It's like a Martian colony down here already.

Global mean surface temperature isn't applicable to the Southwest, it's one of the all-time bad IPCC jokes. It's been running +7ºF down here since March. Not a drop in the second half of the rainy season (below).

Irma + Harvey together will not bring a blip to CDC mortality statistics. The numbers are dwarfed by just the weekly murder rates in Miami + Jacksonville + Houston. In terms of cotton-tops (elderly) in nursing homes, they weren't going to live much longer on average anyway, so by CDC's reckoning (mortality weighted by life expectancy), it might take 40 of them to add up to one toddler. There's also been discussion on how to score Alzheimer warehouses.

Despite the hurricanes being primarily property damage, the info-wars may still have went well. The message did get out, despite an excellent stream of tweets from the Koch's hurricane guy R Maue, that climate change did contribute to frequency and intensity of these tropical storms. And a lot of the public here goes by their gut feeling, which worked to our advantage for once.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 13, 2017, 07:16:18 PM
Key West:
MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT UDATE TUESDAY EVENING
http://monroecountyem.com/CivicAlerts/SingleAlertItem?alertID=130 (http://monroecountyem.com/CivicAlerts/SingleAlertItem?alertID=130)
Statement at the link.

Southern most point, Key West before and after #Irma. #KHOU11
https://mobile.twitter.com/khou/status/907652139115261952 (https://mobile.twitter.com/khou/status/907652139115261952)
Photos below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 13, 2017, 07:18:30 PM
Hurricane #Irma rainfall for storm over Southeast U.S including several states = 17 Trillion gallons. Harvey dropped 20T on SE Texas alone.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/907645909382651904
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 13, 2017, 07:22:08 PM
A 100-year-flood has a 26% chance of happening during your 30-year mortgage.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/13/we-still-dont-know-how-to-talk-about-floods/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/13/we-still-dont-know-how-to-talk-about-floods/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 13, 2017, 07:25:21 PM
What it was like to live through Hurricane Irma as a Category 5 storm, as told by residents of a tiny island (Virgin Islands)
http://mashable.com/2017/09/13/hurricane-irma-firsthand-account-st-john-island/ (http://mashable.com/2017/09/13/hurricane-irma-firsthand-account-st-john-island/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 13, 2017, 07:32:12 PM
Double Trouble in NW Pacific -  NASA/NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite saw Tropical Storm Doksuri  and  Typhoon Talim
https://twitter.com/NASAHurricane/status/908000519028973569
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 13, 2017, 07:39:03 PM
This homeowner in #BigPineKey impressed me mightily. That's what I called locked down. Metal roof with straps anchored to the ground #Irma
https://mobile.twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/907997724045438976
Photo below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 13, 2017, 08:16:01 PM
Post-Harvey, Houston Officials Hope Congress Is Up For Funding Ike Dike
Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner on Tuesday gave his strongest endorsement to date for constructing a physical coastal barrier to protect the region from deadly storm surge.
http://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/2017/09/13/236936/post-harvey-houston-officials-hope-congress-is-up-for-funding-ike-dike/ (http://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/2017/09/13/236936/post-harvey-houston-officials-hope-congress-is-up-for-funding-ike-dike/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 13, 2017, 08:32:24 PM
Flooding from Irma could close I-75 in north Florida
The Santa Fe River under I-75 north of Alachua County is expected to crest, complicating the journey home for those who evacuated.
A rapidly rising river — caused by the historic flooding that Jacksonville saw on Monday — could potentially force Interstate 75 to completely shut down south of Interstate 10 and north of Alachua in north-central Florida.
...
“The river is expected to crest at historic and unprecedented levels presenting a potential threat to the safety of travel on this bridge,” the Florida Department of Transportation said in a statement early Wednesday. “The Santa Fe River under I-75 has rapidly risen 15 feet within the past 36 hours due to the heavy rainfall over North Florida from Hurricane Irma.”

“If the river were to rise to an unsafe level, the bridge would become impassable both northbound and southbound, and would be closed immediately,” FDOT warned.

It’s an additional reason state officials urge residents not to drive home yet. ...
http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2017/09/13/flooding-from-irma-could-close-i-75-stranding-thousands/ (http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2017/09/13/flooding-from-irma-could-close-i-75-stranding-thousands/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 13, 2017, 09:06:23 PM
Typhoon #Talim in the west Pacific is intensifying rapidly toward Category 3 strength, and still expected to turn toward #Japan.
https://www.wunderground.com/news/tropical-storm-typhoon-talim-taiwan-china (https://www.wunderground.com/news/tropical-storm-typhoon-talim-taiwan-china)
    https://twitter.com/wunderground/status/908042641740242944 (https://twitter.com/wunderground/status/908042641740242944)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: oren on September 13, 2017, 09:25:18 PM
Despite the hurricanes being primarily property damage, the info-wars may still have went well. The message did get out, despite an excellent stream of tweets from the Koch's hurricane guy R Maue, that climate change did contribute to frequency and intensity of these tropical storms. And a lot of the public here goes by their gut feeling, which worked to our advantage for once.
That Maue has been driving me nuts. I thought he was just a plain old meteorologist, but he kept on and on with his AGW soft denial. Eric Holthaus on the other hand has been doing a good job of harping on climate change.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 13, 2017, 10:32:03 PM
Here is today's Windy forecast for Hurricane Jose for Sept 22 2017.  If this uncertain forecast actually occurs, the Northeast Coast could be in for some hard knocks:
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Daniel B. on September 14, 2017, 04:02:12 AM
Here is today's Windy forecast for Hurricane Jose for Sept 22 2017.  If this uncertain forecast actually occurs, the Northeast Coast could be in for some hard knocks:

I would not put too much faith in a hurricane forecast 9 days out.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 14, 2017, 08:49:15 AM
Sorry for my supid comment, but I believe that when a heatwave will kill 150'000 people in the American Southwest, it will be too late for everybody.

With "an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth" concept, you only get blind and toothless people.

Well, it pretty much is what republicans want. I'm too much OT again. But there are others too, what's all this talk of typhoons on a hurricanes thread??? Further, I'm of the opinion this thread is way too America-centric. Proposing the thread to be of hurrisöcanes outside of American NHC area of responsibility. ;-). Oh, how far the the reach of local exeptionalism in America
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Alexander555 on September 14, 2017, 09:56:06 AM
Maybe that's what republicans want, but it's what globalists created.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Alexander555 on September 14, 2017, 10:38:45 AM
I think Talim is going to be an interesting case. If forcasts are correct he will cross Japan from south to north. And most of the time he will stay partly above sea.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Reallybigbunny on September 14, 2017, 04:58:45 PM
Current cyclones, hurricanes and global sea surface temperatures
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Reallybigbunny on September 14, 2017, 05:08:48 PM
Typhoon Talim current path projection

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 14, 2017, 05:54:09 PM
NHC Update, 11am:
Outer Banks of North Carolina now in the 5-day cone for #Jose, still just about a 20% chance the storm will affect the US.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/908347226992373760

 "Affect" being a relative term, as the graphic header notes....
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 14, 2017, 06:01:12 PM
Florida’s Poop Nightmare Has Come True
Hurricane Irma caused massive sewage overflows, highlighting the twin dangers of an aging infrastructure and climate change.
https://newrepublic.com/article/144798/floridas-poop-nightmare-come-true
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 14, 2017, 06:08:33 PM
NHC Update, 11am:
Outer Banks of North Carolina now in the 5-day cone for #Jose, still just about a 20% chance the storm will affect the US.

The current Windy forecast (see the attached image) for Tuesday Sept 19 2017 places Hurricane Jose a little bit closer to the Eastern Seaboard than does the NHC forecast:
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Gray-Wolf on September 14, 2017, 07:34:01 PM
I think NHC are at odds with most of the current models with regard to how close Jose will get to the East coast.

Are we seeing some post Irma sensitivity to possible tracks and impacts?

How would the New york area face up to a possible Sept 21st run in with Jose esp if we see multiple 'will it won't it runs?

I think mother N. has her eyes on Trump towers! (lol)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: logicmanPatrick on September 14, 2017, 08:38:41 PM
Windy.com shows why I am feeling cold in my garden here in sourthern England: winds from north Russia via Arctic.

I have found the windy.com forecasts to be accurate over about 3 days, less so after that.

Today's 3 day forecast (for Monday 18 Sept.) show Jose brushing the USA and a tropical storm / hurricane coming up in the Atlantic.

We are living in 'interesting times'.

https://www.windy.com/?2017-09-18-12,19.311,-50.977,3 (https://www.windy.com/?2017-09-18-12,19.311,-50.977,3)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 14, 2017, 08:39:47 PM
I live just east of Tallahassee, Florida.

A year ago, Category 1 Hurricane Hermine dropped some trees [including a 75 cm - 2.5' - diameter oak] across my driveway, knocked a decorative candle lantern (no candle) off its stand and bent the stand.  Mains electricity was out for 5 days. 

Tropical Storm Irma broke two of a large sweet gum's three tops off (breaking the glass on the decorative lantern (again no candle) and blocking my driveway with a ~22 cm [9"] diameter 'log' and a falling oak tree's ~20 cm [8"] diameter branch clipped a rain gutter on my house (damaging 3 feet of the gutter and 'crushing' my clothesline - not a dent on my metal roof).  Electricity was out for 1.5 days.

I should have put the lantern in storage (both  times) as I did lawn furniture, etc.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Gray-Wolf on September 14, 2017, 08:45:23 PM
Windy.com shows why I am feeling cold in my garden here in sourthern England: winds from north Russia via Arctic.

I have found the windy.com forecasts to be accurate over about 3 days, less so after that.

Today's 3 day forecast (for Monday 18 Sept.) show Jose brushing the USA and a tropical storm / hurricane coming up in the Atlantic.

We are living in 'interesting times'.

https://www.windy.com/?2017-09-18-12,19.311,-50.977,3 (https://www.windy.com/?2017-09-18-12,19.311,-50.977,3)

Some of the 'experimental models' show the eastern most disturbance catching and eating the western one before heading north to interact with the remnants of Jose mid way across the Atlantic.

Could be that this extends our grab at the Azores high and pumps up some 'better' airs for an Indian summer from further South? ( one can always hope!).
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 14, 2017, 10:14:08 PM
The Houston Flooding Pushed the Earth's Crust Down 2 Centimeters
The 275 trillion pounds of water from Hurricane Harvey deformed the ground in Texas.
The weight of water can deform the Earth’s crust, if there’s enough of it. And we can measure that change with the ultraprecise global-positioning satellites humans have launched into orbit.

On Monday, Chris Milliner of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory tweeted a simple map visualizing data from the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory. It showed that the GPS data from special stations around Houston detected that the whole area had been pushed down roughly two centimeters by the weight of the water that fell during Hurricane Harvey. ...
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/09/hurricane-harvey-deformed-the-earths-crust-around-houston/538866/ (https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/09/hurricane-harvey-deformed-the-earths-crust-around-houston/538866/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 14, 2017, 10:38:04 PM
I think NHC are at odds with most of the current models with regard to how close Jose will get to the East coast.

Are we seeing some post Irma sensitivity to possible tracks and impacts?

How would the New york area face up to a possible Sept 21st run in with Jose esp if we see multiple 'will it won't it runs?

I think mother N. has her eyes on Trump towers! (lol)

While Jose is currently forecast to miss the New York area; nevertheless the two attached HWRF forecasts for Jose thru 6pm Tuesday Sept 19 2017, indicates that Jose is moving even closer to New York than the last Windy forecast (thru noon on the 19th).
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Archimid on September 15, 2017, 12:23:08 AM
I live just east of Tallahassee, Florida.
...
I should have put the lantern in storage (both  times) as I did lawn furniture, etc.


I'm glad you are ok and have the power back on.  The good thing about these events is that we learn our vulnerabilities and have a chance to be better prepared next time. Chances are that next time will be sooner than last time.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Daniel B. on September 15, 2017, 12:29:56 AM
Much of the model differences are based on whether high pressure develops to the north of Jose.  This will steer it further inland.  Without such a development, the jet stream will push it out to sea.  All this is still a week away, so forecasts are quite speculative at this point.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: SteveMDFP on September 15, 2017, 01:58:55 AM
The White House is only 54 feet above sea level.  If Jose went up the Chesapeake Bay, I think the
White House could flood.  Maybe that would wake up some skeptics. 
Background information:

With National Treasures At Risk, D.C. Fights Against Flooding
http://www.npr.org/2013/12/26/255847303/with-national-treasures-at-risk-d-c-fights-against-flooding (http://www.npr.org/2013/12/26/255847303/with-national-treasures-at-risk-d-c-fights-against-flooding)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Rob Dekker on September 15, 2017, 08:20:52 AM
Statements like this :

The White House is only 54 feet above sea level.  If Jose went up the Chesapeake Bay, I think the
White House could flood.  Maybe that would wake up some skeptics. 

and this
We need to be shocked into action and deadly global catastrophes are the only way this will happen....say a deadly heatwave in the Southwest U.S. that kills 150,000.

are not helping at all.

If they were to happen they would be regarded as 'fluke' events and for good reason.
Global warming and climate change and sea level rise so far happen slowly but steadily.
And that is troublesome enough.

If there are any climate trigger points that lead to abrupt climate change, then we will see this only after a number of years in a row result in the same catastrophes, and then it will be too late anyway.

It's much more constructive to look at the bright side of what we can do to change, before it is too late. The island of Kauai sets an example :
https://electrek.co/2017/06/21/tesla-solar-powerpack-kauai-drone-video/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 15, 2017, 08:29:37 AM
GFS for the 20th, which is not too long term outlook.
José grazing New York and more worryingly a fast developing powerful storm in roughly the same area affected by Irma.
National Hurricane Center gives that one 80% chance of developing in 5 days as well.

The mood is still grim in both the French and Dutch side of St. Maarten and this can't be helping.
I'm not impressed with the Dutch efforts to provide aid so far at all, no thinking outside of the box and little understanding of the desperate situation.
While they were too worried to land planes down there the US planes evacuated their people just fine and the locals felt deserted for it.
They never even considered airdropping which is what C130 planes are good at and would have been a sign of hope at least.

The not yet named storm seems like it will hit some islands whichever way it goes, let's hope it does not ravage places already in shambles...
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 15, 2017, 08:47:09 AM
Statements like this :

The White House is only 54 feet above sea level.  If Jose went up the Chesapeake Bay, I think the
White House could flood.  Maybe that would wake up some skeptics. 

and this
We need to be shocked into action and deadly global catastrophes are the only way this will happen....say a deadly heatwave in the Southwest U.S. that kills 150,000.

are not helping at all.

If they were to happen they would be regarded as 'fluke' events and for good reason.
Global warming and climate change and sea level rise so far happen slowly but steadily.
And that is troublesome enough.

If there are any climate trigger points that lead to abrupt climate change, then we will see this only after a number of years in a row result in the same catastrophes, and then it will be too late anyway.

It's much more constructive to look at the bright side of what we can do to change, before it is too late. The island of Kauai sets an example :
https://electrek.co/2017/06/21/tesla-solar-powerpack-kauai-drone-video/

I agree Rob, but statements like that based on emotions are to be expected i guess.
Those Tesla setup's look nightmarish to me actually and have me wondering how on Earth people think we can replace energy demands with other finite resources and limited possibilities?
Staying on topic, it doesn't look very hurricane-proof to me either... ;)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 15, 2017, 01:34:57 PM
'For first time in 300 years, there’s not a single living person on the island of Barbuda'
Barbuda has been left completely devastated by Hurricane Irma. An estimated 95% of Barbuda’s structures are damaged, and the entire island of around 1,800 people has been evacuated.

“The damage is complete,” says Ambassador Ronald Sanders, who has served as Antigua and Barbuda’s ambassador to the U.S. since 2015. “For the first time in 300 years, there’s not a single living person on the island of Barbuda — a civilization that has existed on that island for over 300 years has now been extinguished.”

According to Sanders, Irma was “the most ferocious, cruel and merciless storm” in the island’s history. The hurricane was 378 miles wide when it descended on Barbuda, which is just 62 square miles.

“This was a huge monster,” he says. “The island and the people on the island had absolutely no chance.”

Evacuees from Barbuda were sent to Antigua, which did not suffer the same level of damage from Irma.

“We’ve had most of the people we’ve brought over to Antigua in shelters,” says Sanders. “We’ve tried to make living accommodations as good as humanly possible in these circumstances. Fortunately, we had planned ahead for this hurricane, and we had ordered supplies in from Miami and the United States before the hurricane hit.”
...
Sanders says the world must step up and help Barbuda.

“We are a small island community — the gross domestic product of Antigua is $1 billion a year,” he says. “We cannot afford to take on this responsibility by ourselves. Barbuda is not just a disaster, it’s a humanitarian crisis. We are hopeful that the international community will come to our aid, not because we’re begging for something we want, but because we’re begging for something that is needed.” ...
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/09/14/barbuda-hurricane-irama-devastation/665950001/ (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/09/14/barbuda-hurricane-irama-devastation/665950001/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 15, 2017, 05:57:39 PM
The latest HWRF-Parent forecast for Hurricane Jose shows it relatively close to the greater New York area by 9m EDT on Tuesday Sept 9 2017.  Let's hope that a blocking high pressure system near Greenland doesn't push it landward as happened to Superstorm Sandy:
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 15, 2017, 06:09:22 PM
The current Windy forecast shows that a high pressure system will form that will keep Jose near the greater New York area until Saturday Sept 23 2017 (see attached image), and thereafter project that it will degrade below a tropical storm level.  Let's hope that his high pressure system doesn't strengthen (or arrive early):
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Archimid on September 15, 2017, 07:11:10 PM
Category 5 Hurricane according to NOAA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php)

A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months



For first time in 300 years, no one is living on Barbuda.( Video).

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/15/americas/irma-barbuda-population-trnd/index.html (http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/15/americas/irma-barbuda-population-trnd/index.html)




Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: logicmanPatrick on September 15, 2017, 07:26:28 PM
Latest from NHC, image modified to show all 3 panels at once.

Latest wave heights from NHC.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 15, 2017, 09:18:24 PM
#Jose will be a good test of a new experimental weather model called #DeepThunder from WSI & @IBM. It is currently West of other models.
https://twitter.com/BillKarins/status/908624680311050240
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 15, 2017, 09:20:26 PM
Meteorologists starting to lose their minds:

Ryan Hanrahan:  "If I'm still talking about #Jose on Monday 9/25 I'm finding a new profession."
https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/908766011255611392

From Monday:
Bill Karins:  "I refuse to show GFS past day 5 but if I have to work again next weekend because of #Jose I'm going need a good shrink & divorce lawyer."
https://twitter.com/billkarins/status/907280127721197569
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: jai mitchell on September 16, 2017, 12:22:51 AM
. . . and then it will be too late anyway.

Talk about not helping.   It is a simple fact of human nature that we are basically herd animals who need to see concrete physical action or threat to get behind something.  In the absence of a rational, moral and representational government who has effectively denied climate change and its threats for the last 30 years, It will likely take continued impacts, coupled with local-scale movements eventually catalyzing into a national-scale movement, like occupy wall street, before our government actually does the hard work of saying 'NO' to their wealthy fossil-fuel interest donors and lobbyists.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: jai mitchell on September 16, 2017, 12:26:00 AM
Disturbance 1 looks very significant in the Caribbean (and on toward Florida) on the long-range models, Hurricane Jose looks to be more than insignificant with wind-speed and storm surge damage to New England.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/09/20/1200Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-69.52,27.91,818/loc=-162.147,14.467
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 16, 2017, 12:39:35 AM
It will likely take continued impacts, coupled with local-scale movements eventually catalyzing into a national-scale movement, like occupy wall street, before our government actually does the hard work of saying 'NO' to their wealthy fossil-fuel interest donors and lobbyists.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Martin Gisser on September 16, 2017, 12:44:23 AM
Florida governor remains unsure about climate change after Hurricane Irma
...
“Clearly our environment changes all the time, and whether that’s cycles we’re going through or whether that’s man-made, I wouldn’t be able to tell you which one it is,” Scott said after twice touring the storm-ravaged Florida Keys this week.
...

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2017/09/14/florida-governor-remains-unsure-about-climate-change-after-hurricane-irma-114498 (http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2017/09/14/florida-governor-remains-unsure-about-climate-change-after-hurricane-irma-114498)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: miki on September 16, 2017, 01:08:28 AM
He cannot change, Martin.
If he tells anything different than that the whole real estate market in Florida starts crumbling.

Florida governor remains unsure about climate change after Hurricane Irma
...
“Clearly our environment changes all the time, and whether that’s cycles we’re going through or whether that’s man-made, I wouldn’t be able to tell you which one it is,” Scott said after twice touring the storm-ravaged Florida Keys this week.
...

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2017/09/14/florida-governor-remains-unsure-about-climate-change-after-hurricane-irma-114498 (http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2017/09/14/florida-governor-remains-unsure-about-climate-change-after-hurricane-irma-114498)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Rob Dekker on September 16, 2017, 06:03:55 AM
Those Tesla setup's look nightmarish to me actually and have me wondering how on Earth people think we can replace energy demands with other finite resources and limited possibilities?

What a strange remark. Kauai just switched to almost 100% renewable energy with that Tesla solar plant/battery system. And they lowered electricity cost from 30ct/kWh to 11ct/kWh.

The only people for which that is 'nightmarish' is the fossil fuel industry, since the Kauai example can be replicated everywhere.

Solar power is not a 'finite resource' in the practical sense. We can easily power the entire planet with solar/battery if we just had the guts to upscale. And for 11ct/kWh that can be done at competitive (to fossil fuel) cost.

Staying on topic, it doesn't look very hurricane-proof to me either... ;)

Solar systems in hurricane prone areas are designed to withstand at least 140 mph winds.

Ah here is one more advantage of using the Tesla solar/battery combination. This one at residential level :
https://www.fastcompany.com/40467003/during-irmas-power-outages-some-houses-kept-the-lights-on-with-solar-and-batteries (https://www.fastcompany.com/40467003/during-irmas-power-outages-some-houses-kept-the-lights-on-with-solar-and-batteries)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 16, 2017, 04:09:08 PM
Hurricanes Irma and Harvey have racked up billions in damages. Who pays?
Who will pick up the tab in Florida, Georgia and Texas?

That's the big question, now that flood waters from Hurricanes Irma and Harvey have receded. Left behind is damage that Moody's Analytics expects will exceed $150 billion, on par with the cost of Hurricane Katrina.

After any major natural disaster, a patchwork of public and private actors step up to cover costs. Payouts from insurers, along with a miscellany of local, state and federal aid programs, will help those affected to pay for rebuilding.

Still, not everyone will be made whole again.

"Individuals will have to use some of their own resources, too," said Shahid Hamid, a professor of finance at Florida International University's College of Business. "Those who can afford it."

Here's a look at who's footing the bill. ...
http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/15/news/economy/irma-harvey-damage-who-pays/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/15/news/economy/irma-harvey-damage-who-pays/index.html)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 16, 2017, 04:10:57 PM
Those Tesla setup's look nightmarish to me actually and have me wondering how on Earth people think we can replace energy demands with other finite resources and limited possibilities?

What a strange remark. Kauai just switched to almost 100% renewable energy with that Tesla solar plant/battery system. And they lowered electricity cost from 30ct/kWh to 11ct/kWh.

The only people for which that is 'nightmarish' is the fossil fuel industry, since the Kauai example can be replicated everywhere.

Solar power is not a 'finite resource' in the practical sense. We can easily power the entire planet with solar/battery if we just had the guts to upscale. And for 11ct/kWh that can be done at competitive (to fossil fuel) cost.

Staying on topic, it doesn't look very hurricane-proof to me either... ;)

Solar systems in hurricane prone areas are designed to withstand at least 140 mph winds.

Ah here is one more advantage of using the Tesla solar/battery combination. This one at residential level :
https://www.fastcompany.com/40467003/during-irmas-power-outages-some-houses-kept-the-lights-on-with-solar-and-batteries (https://www.fastcompany.com/40467003/during-irmas-power-outages-some-houses-kept-the-lights-on-with-solar-and-batteries)

I'm sure that would seem strange to many Rob, as they only consider the factor of industrial society's energy needs and potential.
To me there is no such thing as renewable energy however.
You don't need an energy source except food.

Look at the big picture, what are solar panels, windmills etc made of?
What resources shall we deplete, what child labour and slavery employ etc?
What environmental destruction shall we cause covering all of industrial dominated Earth with so called renewable energy sources?
It will buy climate some time perhaps yes.
It will piss off the fossil fuel industry yes, although they are probably powerful enough to dominate new markets as well.
The cost to our living planet will still be enormous, not renewable at all.
Oddly enough the people on North Sentinel haven't needed to worry about these predicaments for the last 60,000-80.000 years.
They live on 9 square miles mate...do you see what i'm getting at?
Fields of solar panels are a nightmarish sight compared to their tiny island, look it up!
Look it up and be impressed with their track record, compared to which ours is just a smelly fart in time.
So therefore i would always consider any industrialized location on Earth a nightmare compared to a natural location yes.

Here is a picture of that place looking much better then, sorry i almost forgot.
Tell me how a solar power setup does not look a nightmare compared to that ok?
 ;)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 16, 2017, 04:24:55 PM
That is what our industrial culture calls paradise usually Rob, they pay big bucks to travel such places and usually destroy them too.
I believe this shot is after the great pacific tsunami from sattelite, during a fly-over to check up on them by Indian gvnmt as well it turned out they were fine...enough said.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: oren on September 16, 2017, 05:26:57 PM
FD, such a lifestyle as these people have would be called a nightmare by most people in developed nations, despite perhaps to have such vacations now and then. If all humanity lived in such conditions, someone would surely make the invention of energy, renewable or not. Actually, someone already did, back in 1750. So, I think people are looking for a solar/wind solution that can support these very human desires for improvements in living conditions and not ruin the atmosphere in the process. It does have environmental side effects, but less than the current alternative, which for most people isn't North Sentinel, but fossil BAU.
BTW, the best way to reduce humanity's impact on the environment is to limit the number of births. Ain't gonna happen of course. But surely higher chance than everybody going back to hunter gatherer.
(Just noticed this is wildly OT here).
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 16, 2017, 06:29:37 PM
he linked reference indicates that we should know what the trend is for Atlantic storm surge in about 20 years from now, so in the meantime we can either hope for the best and do little (i.e. the Pollyanna approach), or we could prepare for the worse (following the Precautionary Principle):

Benjamin Seiyon Lee, Murali Haran & Klaus Keller (15 September 2017), "Multi-decadal scale detection time for potentially increasing Atlantic storm surges in a warming climate", Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074606 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL074606/abstract?utm_content=buffer2fc08&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL074606/abstract?utm_content=buffer2fc08&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer)

Extract: "Storm surges are key drivers of coastal flooding, which generate considerable risks. Strategies to manage these risks can hinge on the ability to (i) project the return periods of extreme storm surges and (ii) detect potential changes in their statistical properties. There are several lines of evidence linking rising global average temperatures and increasingly frequent extreme storm surges. This conclusion is, however, subject to considerable structural uncertainty. This leads to two main questions: What are projections under various plausible statistical models? How long would it take to distinguish among these plausible statistical models? We address these questions by analyzing observed and simulated storm surge data. We find that: (1) there is a positive correlation between global mean temperature rise and increasing frequencies of extreme storm surges; (2) there is considerable uncertainty underlying the strength of this relationship; and (3) if the frequency of storm surges is increasing, this increase can be detected within a multi-decadal time scale (≈ 20 years from now)."
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on September 16, 2017, 09:03:08 PM
It seems that tropical depression 15 is likely to do to the same places in the Caribbean that which Irma did, starting next Tuesday.  Will it reach Florida? Too early to say.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: logicmanPatrick on September 16, 2017, 09:45:43 PM
At 10 a.m., the center of Category 1 Hurricane Jose was about 480 miles south southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C., and about 500 miles southwest of Bermuda, moving northwest at 9 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. Forecasters  expect the storm's top winds to increase to 85 mph over the next two days before beginning to weaken slowly.

"Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system," said Hurricane Specialist Robbie Berg in a public advisory message. "Tropical storm watches may be needed for portiions of this area during the next day or two."

The Times Picayune (http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2017/09/hurricane_jose_tropical_storm.html)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2017, 12:39:33 AM
5pm NHC update.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2017, 03:42:13 AM
 :o

Tropical Storm #Maria is exactly what the Caribbean doesn't need. Now expected to be a major Cat 3 hurricane by Wednesday near Puerto Rico.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909228324681068547
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 17, 2017, 10:41:23 AM
Just when you been sitting on the edge of your seat and think you can relax, this season has you right back with nailbiting stuff.
Maria seems determined to either redo Irma, or just take out what Irma had missed for sake of completion on Hispaniola and elsewhere.
Or a bit of both.
The Red Cross and others must not be getting much sleep these days.
We should do a crowdfunding effort to give them free coffee first, so they can keep giving water to the victims.
Jokes aside, i hope preparations are scaled up everywhere.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2017, 02:32:55 PM
"Maria set to move through the Caribbean as Cat 3+, peaking near Puerto Rico on Wednesday.
Folks, this is a serious storm."
    Another horrible week for the Caribbean.
NHC: "it would be no surprise if Maria got significantly stronger than currently forecast."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909270868693602304
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2017, 02:35:14 PM
If you're just waking up, here's the latest track for #Jose. Most likely track of the center still SE of Nantucket.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/909393587502280706
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2017, 02:39:56 PM
#Jose will swipe the northeastern US with rain, wind and dangerous seas this week: https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/jose-to-swipe-northeastern-us-with-rain-wind-and-rough-surf/70002748 (https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/jose-to-swipe-northeastern-us-with-rain-wind-and-rough-surf/70002748)
https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/909394083717795841 (https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/909394083717795841)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2017, 03:34:21 PM
Probabilities are rising for the chance of Hurricane impacts east coast. ...
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/909391745024184320
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on September 17, 2017, 03:42:52 PM
"They Call the Wind Maria"  - from "Paint Your Wagon"

"Maria blows the stars around
Sets the clouds a-flyin'
Maria makes
The mountains sound like folks was out there dyin'"

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2017, 04:51:44 PM
Floodwater pathogens can’t be washed off of fresh produce
...“Fresh fruits and vegetables that have been inundated by flood waters cannot be adequately cleaned and should be destroyed,” according to the FDA.

“There is no practical method of reconditioning the edible portion of a crop that will provide a reasonable assurance of human food safety. Therefore, the FDA recommends that these crops be disposed of in a manner that ensures they are kept separate from crops that have not been flood damaged to avoid adulterating ‘clean’ crops.”

Floodwaters contain a cocktail of pathogens and parasites, including E. coli, Salmonella, typhoid and cholera. ...
http://www.foodsafetynews.com/2017/09/floodwater-pathogens-cant-be-washed-off-of-fresh-produce/ (http://www.foodsafetynews.com/2017/09/floodwater-pathogens-cant-be-washed-off-of-fresh-produce/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2017, 08:13:57 PM
In the direct path of #Maria, at hurricane strength:
Martinique
Dominica
Guadeloupe
Montserrat
St. Kitts & Nevis
USVI
BVI
Puerto Rico
D.R.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909455936309399553

For Puerto Rico and the USVI, Maria will likely be worse than Irma -- maybe much worse.
Please, please take this storm seriously.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909456605737037824
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2017, 08:16:02 PM
NHC odds of Tropical Storm conditions from #Jose:
DC: 10%
Philly: 22%
Atlantic City: 34%
NYC: 35%
Nantucket: 60%
Boston: 34%
Halifax: 6%
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909453843062251522
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2017, 09:52:28 PM
12z Euro with a ridiculous 1-2 punch to the Northeast [U.S.] courtesy of #Maria and a drunk #Jose
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/909493863978475520

Ridiculous GIF at the link.  :-\
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: logicmanPatrick on September 17, 2017, 10:02:35 PM
"Floodwaters contain a cocktail of pathogens and parasites, including E. coli, Salmonella, typhoid and cholera. ..."

Not to mention stuff from the badly-named superfund sites aka heavily polluted sites.  Google map of poisoned places.  Note very many in path of effects of Jose.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1ufPxvmFcqVFOq2LEFew9CL28ePI&hl=en_US&ll=34.26378938618664%2C-77.55964843750002&z=6 (https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1ufPxvmFcqVFOq2LEFew9CL28ePI&hl=en_US&ll=34.26378938618664%2C-77.55964843750002&z=6)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2017, 10:03:09 PM
#Maria #BVI @GusJaspert Governor, someone doesn't understand. You should have already issued a watch. Now only 1 daylight left 2 get ready!
https://twitter.com/weathercarib/status/909489681586442240

Tropical Storm Maria Projected To Hit USVI As Hurricane; Mapp Issues Urgent Warning To USVI: Head To Shelters, [Batten Down]
https://twitter.com/justatraveler/status/909389430863036416
(Link has a link to an article.)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2017, 10:10:34 PM
~55-60% of major hurricanes that pass thru Hebert Box #1 hit the US, that's ~1.5-2x the climatological mean for all TCs in this area. #Maria
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/909257569771941888
Additional informative images at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2017, 11:49:48 PM
NHC Update, 5pm:
#Maria is now a hurricane. This is an utterly devastating forecast for the Caribbean, just days after Irma's impact.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909533408518397954
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2017, 12:02:36 AM
Jose:

NWS Charleston, South Carolina
Coastal Flood Advisory in effect through 9 PM this evening. Saltwater flooding possible with the evening high tide. #scwx #gawx
https://twitter.com/NWSCharlestonSC/status/909535200627093504
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2017, 12:06:47 AM
A lot of #Jose guidance slams the brakes on the storm as it approaches. Where exactly it stops and dodges east the main Q for us.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/909502083384119296
Image below.

How much preparation should SE [New England] be doing?

Should plan on those potential outages, and coastal residents should keep a close eye on flooding forecasts. Very high tides & big surf.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/909502600545959936

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: P-maker on September 18, 2017, 12:16:05 AM
Sigmetnow,

Thank you for keeping an eye on the
“ridiculous 1-2 punch to the Northeast [U.S.]”
I took a further look at a handful of forecasts for the end of month pressure configuration. They all came out with a high pressure area situated over Newfoundland. It was the same type of atmospheric steering, which led to the Sandy disaster by the end of October in 2012. Now it seems as if we will have this same type of blocking ridge at the same time as we will have two tropical cyclones approaching from the south. Since we are one month earlier, one can only speculate whether New Jersey will be hit again, or whether the swamps of Washington will be filled up again with a storm surge up the Chesapeake Bay or a pluvial disaster down the Potomac River.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2017, 12:17:15 AM
@NHC_Atlantic and @NWS offices hoist a Tropical Storm Watch from Delaware to Cape Cod. #Jose
https://twitter.com/GCarbin/status/909533188891885568
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2017, 12:21:15 AM
Sigmetnow,

Thank you for keeping an eye on the
“ridiculous 1-2 punch to the Northeast [U.S.]”
<snip>

I'm starting to feel a little like The Weather Channel's Dr. Greg Forbes in the midst of a tornado outbreak....  :o
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2017, 12:32:06 AM
NWS OPC:  GOES-16 (non-operational) imagery of #HurricaneJose nearing our #Atlantic offshore waters.
https://twitter.com/NWSOPC/status/909543844072640514
Satellite GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2017, 12:42:48 AM
When citizens take it upon themselves to help during a disaster.

Harvey's heartbreaking losses
The Federal Emergency Management Agency under past administrator Craig Fugate began to encourage the move toward broad citizen involvement, recognizing that a "command-and-control" structure often will break down in bigger disasters. After Harvey, Fugate said the old way of looking at the public as either victim or potential hindrance - "a liability" - is outdated, especially in an event of such size. Instead, he said, they should be considered a resource.
http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Harvey-s-heartbreaking-losses-12201961.php (http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Harvey-s-heartbreaking-losses-12201961.php)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: TerryM on September 18, 2017, 02:10:25 AM
A 100-year-flood has a 26% chance of happening during your 30-year mortgage.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/13/we-still-dont-know-how-to-talk-about-floods/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/13/we-still-dont-know-how-to-talk-about-floods/)


Did I miss something?


If an event has a 1% chance of occurring, and we go to the well 30 times, don't we have a 30% chance of capturing that once elusive prize?


How on earth was the 26% figure arrived at?


Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2017, 02:56:23 AM
Further to P-maker's comments above:

Problem is a very high-amplitude pattern. Big ridges stopping up the works. Not a lot of westerly flow right now or anytime soon.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/909573481116954624
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Avalonian on September 18, 2017, 02:58:06 AM
A 100-year-flood has a 26% chance of happening during your 30-year mortgage.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/13/we-still-dont-know-how-to-talk-about-floods/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/13/we-still-dont-know-how-to-talk-about-floods/)

Did I miss something?
If an event has a 1% chance of occurring, and we go to the well 30 times, don't we have a 30% chance of capturing that once elusive prize?
How on earth was the 26% figure arrived at?

Terry

Not how statistics works, Terry! By that reasoning, after 100 years, the probability is 1, which of course isn't true.

To work out the odds, you take the inverse scenario (i.e. 99% chance of not happening), and raise that to the power of 30... then subtract from 100%. The 26% answer is correct.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2017, 03:08:07 AM
Thanks, Avalonian.  I couldn't find the equation, but I did find the image below from a FEMA document.

Math!  :o

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2017, 03:18:50 AM
Active spot on the sun caused solar storms that impacted satellite & radio comms during #Harvey #Irma. #NWAS17
https://twitter.com/nwas/status/909582390976114688

Noise from a solar flare was so intense that FAA lost communications with several aircraft #NWAS17
https://twitter.com/nwas/status/909581408540049408



This is really scary stuff. Had no idea there were so many issues with GPS, sat phones and amateur radio due to solar storms in Aug-Sep
https://twitter.com/ounwcm/status/909583489523056640
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: TerryM on September 18, 2017, 04:08:42 AM
A 100-year-flood has a 26% chance of happening during your 30-year mortgage.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/13/we-still-dont-know-how-to-talk-about-floods/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/13/we-still-dont-know-how-to-talk-about-floods/)

Did I miss something?
If an event has a 1% chance of occurring, and we go to the well 30 times, don't we have a 30% chance of capturing that once elusive prize?
How on earth was the 26% figure arrived at?

Terry

Not how statistics works, Terry! By that reasoning, after 100 years, the probability is 1, which of course isn't true.

To work out the odds, you take the inverse scenario (i.e. 99% chance of not happening), and raise that to the power of 30... then subtract from 100%. The 26% answer is correct.


My thanks.


I'd realized I was on the wrong path before I hit "post", but struggled to identify my error.


Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Avalonian on September 18, 2017, 04:20:12 AM

My thanks.

I'd realized I was on the wrong path before I hit "post", but struggled to identify my error.

Terry

No worries - it's good to dust off the A-level maths every now and then!  :o
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Brigantine on September 18, 2017, 05:39:18 AM
Did I miss something?

Just to put a different spin on Avalonian's comment:

That 30% cumulative chance of events is still there, but 3.97% of it is overlapping. So the total flooding footprint only covers 26.03% of possible outcomes.

Somewhere within that 26% footprint is the overlap - 3.61% of possible outcomes have multiple 100-year floods, including 0.33% of possible outcomes containing *more* than 2 floods - on average 3.07 - which brings the cumulative chance up that final 0.36% to 30%.

The 27th - 30th percentiles are spared thanks to the 1st-4th percentiles carrying extra load.

[Technically... correct me if I'm wrong anyone, but the expected number of floods in 30 years should be marginally above 0.3 (~0.3015), as the way it is calculated ignores the chance of 2 floods in a single year. So the above should talk about "years with flooding" instead of separate "floods"/"events".

If it were defined as a 100-year recurrence time, we'd calculate the probabilities with exponentials (Poisson). So it would be a 25.92% chance of at least 1 in 30 years (4.08% overlap), 3.69% chance of 2+, 0.36% chance of more (average 3.08).

Defined as 1% chance of 1 or more events per year, but calculating including the risk of multiple events each year, it would be a 30.15% cumulative chance of events, a 26.03% chance of at least 1 in 30 years (4.12% overlap), 3.73% chance of 2+, 0.37% chance of more (average 3.08)

I realize these small differences are nothing compared to the uncertainty when calculating recurrence times in the real world!]
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Yamatin on September 18, 2017, 06:13:49 AM
"Floodwaters contain a cocktail of pathogens and parasites, including E. coli, Salmonella, typhoid and cholera. ..."

Not to mention stuff from the badly-named superfund sites aka heavily polluted sites.  Google map of poisoned places.  Note very many in path of effects of Jose.


Seen a few posts regarding the potential issue with EPA Superfund classified sites and just wanted to clarify the actual risk associated with these areas. For reference, before moving into corporate sustainability consulting, I was an environmental design engineer focusing on Superfund clean-ups. Sites that become enrolled in the EPA Superfund program often have one of three issues:

In all three situations, the risk associated with flooding is generally limited unless the site is actively undergoing excavation, which exposes the worst of the contaminants to flood waters. While the first few inches of soil with metal impacts could be taken away with the flood waters, their settling would result in highly diluted concentrations that would in nearly all cases no longer be a more significant concern than the surrounding area. Most of Houston likely already has higher than average levels of contaminated soil given all the refineries that have been emitting toxic metals into the air for decades that then settle downgradient).
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 18, 2017, 02:58:38 PM
Statements like this :

The White House is only 54 feet above sea level.  If Jose went up the Chesapeake Bay, I think the
White House could flood.  Maybe that would wake up some skeptics. 

and this
We need to be shocked into action and deadly global catastrophes are the only way this will happen....say a deadly heatwave in the Southwest U.S. that kills 150,000.

are not helping at all.

If they were to happen they would be regarded as 'fluke' events and for good reason.
Global warming and climate change and sea level rise so far happen slowly but steadily.
And that is troublesome enough.

As the global temperature warms, more frequent and severe events are the natural outcome so we can expect these events to become more and more frequent. We need to have enough of them that they can no longer be characterized as 'fluke' events.

If there are any climate trigger points that lead to abrupt climate change, then we will see this only after a number of years in a row result in the same catastrophes, and then it will be too late anyway.

Would you mean like the three consecutive 500 year floods in Houston in 2015, 2016 and 2017? These events are not evidence of abrupt climate change but the increasing frequency of these severe events are a direct result of a warming planet.

You may feel my comments are not helpful but it does not matter how you characterize them. These kinds of events (throw in the historic wildfires in the west and and an endless number of events across the planet) are on the rise and the sooner Americans realize that this is what is in store for us if we do not stop burning fossil fuels the better off we will be.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 18, 2017, 03:15:20 PM
The simple fact is that some of the most fierce opponents of AGW in the U.S. are beginning to acknowledge that climate change is real and that some of it is the result of human activity. These same people are now arguing that the effects of this warming will not be severe and thus nothing needs to be done.

Anyone arguing that the effects of climate change will be slow or minor as evidence mounts that this is simply not the case are only serving to delay actions that are desperately needed. Meanwhile, the U.S. has pulled out of the Paris agreement.

More frequent and devastating events in the U.S., please.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on September 18, 2017, 03:43:04 PM
MARIA  Latest from NHC
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS MARIA INTENSIFYING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2017, 04:01:08 PM
Hurricane Maria:
Hurricane-force wind probability map.
Arrival of Tropical-Storm-force winds map.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2017, 04:34:41 PM
Florida: after the flood.

Public health crisis looms after Irma
NAPLES, Fla. — Emergency responders in the Everglades City area, a low-income fishing community walloped by Hurricane Irma last weekend, may be faced with a deadly public health crisis as families spend day after day in the mud, mold and water left behind by 10 feet of storm surge that destroyed hundreds of homes. ...
http://amp.usatoday.com/story/675822001/ (http://amp.usatoday.com/story/675822001/)

Edit:  Because Florida is so flat, sewerage systems commonly must be pressurized to induce flow.  That requires electricity....
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2017, 04:44:50 PM
María forecast model tracks from this morning ([first image below]) versus yesterday morning ([second image below])
https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/909780107891318784
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2017, 05:06:02 PM
11am NHC update.

Satellite shows drier air mixing into Jose.

Tropical Depression Lee is expected to track slowly to the northwest.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2017, 05:13:39 PM
Hurricane Jose now a minimal hurricane.  Will continue to transition to more of a nor'easter type of storm in coming days.
https://twitter.com/growingwisdom/status/909792799742144513
Satellite GIF at the link.

Danger lessening for the Northeast from Hurricane #Jose, expect mostly waves & coastal erosion for the worst impacts.
     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909793657947082753
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2017, 05:15:27 PM
NHC Update, 11am:
#Maria has rapidly intensified overnight and is now a major hurricane. Expected to strike Dominica within hours.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909793934150422528
IR satellite GIF at the link.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2017, 05:49:47 PM
"A horrific forecast:
NHC now expects #Maria to approach Dominica tonight as a Cat 4, and strengthen to near Cat 5 before landfall in USVI/PR"
"I can't possibly stress this enough: If you have friends or family in Puerto Rico, please get in touch.
Maria will be much worse than Irma."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909801168288743425

"Not since the 1932 San Ciprian hurricane has Puerto Rico faced a Cat 4 landfall. Maria will be a catastrophic storm on its current course."
"Just once in recorded history (1928) has Puerto Rico faced a landfall from a Cat 5 hurricane. There's a real chance Maria could be the 2nd."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909803219823538184

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2017, 06:06:27 PM
Puerto Rico gov declares state of emergency ahead of Hurricane María

SAN JUAN – Gov. Ricardo Rosselló announced Monday that he signed an executive order to declare a state of emergency for Puerto Rico ahead of Hurricane María’s passage over the island.

Likewise, the governor requested President Donald Trump to declare a state of emergency for federal reimbursement of funds used in damage mitigation efforts before María moves over the island.

Meteorologist Ernesto Morales of the National Meteorological Service (SNM by its Spanish initials) said Hurricane María’s forecast uncertainty “is very low” and “confidence” is high, and recommended taking precautionary measures before the storm.

“The system is forecast to be Category 3 or 4 passing over the island of Puerto Rico. The radius of hurricane winds is 25 miles; therefore, all Puerto Rico will be experiencing hurricane conditions,” said the meteorologist, who forecast 12 to 18 inches of rain on the island. “The forecast says the system is going to slow down to 8 [miles per hour] to 10 miles per hour. We will be under its effects for a longer period,” he added.

“Severe flooding is expected,” the governor warned. “We are urging that if you are in a dangerous area don’t think it won’t happen. Experts have told you today that the margin of error is very slim here.” ...
Rosselló said he asked that eight construction cranes be lowered, and that three were already being worked on. He warned the rest that the police could force them to abide by the order.
http://caribbeanbusiness.com/puerto-rico-gov-declares-state-of-emergency-ahead-of-hurricane-maria/ (http://caribbeanbusiness.com/puerto-rico-gov-declares-state-of-emergency-ahead-of-hurricane-maria/)



If you want steady updates as Hurricane #Maria approaches Puerto Rico, @JohnMoralesNBC6 is your guy. He grew up there.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909809837151850496 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909809837151850496)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on September 18, 2017, 07:30:17 PM
Just want to echo others to say I really appreciate what you are doing here, Sig. It takes quite a bit of time to chase down the best hurricane links on my own and cycle through them regularly so the forum collection of breaking news is much more convenient. 

J Masters and B Henson are also putting out some fine once-a-day articles on these hurricanes, the most recent being:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/rapidly-intensifying-maria-hitting-leeward-islands-jose-headed-north (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/rapidly-intensifying-maria-hitting-leeward-islands-jose-headed-north)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: logicmanPatrick on September 18, 2017, 07:35:05 PM
"Floodwaters contain a cocktail of pathogens and parasites, including E. coli, Salmonella, typhoid and cholera. ..."

Not to mention stuff from the badly-named superfund sites aka heavily polluted sites.  Google map of poisoned places.  Note very many in path of effects of Jose.


Seen a few posts regarding the potential issue with EPA Superfund classified sites and just wanted to clarify the actual risk associated with these areas.

[snip]

Yamatin: many thanks for your input.

Given that floodwaters tend to be fast in, slow out, would you agree that it is likely that there would be a gradient of pollution around a contaminated flooded site rather than dilution over a substantial area?  I have seen this effect for small scale flooding: a foot or two of water lingering for a week or two.  I have no experience of anything deeper or longer lasting. (For which I am eternally grateful)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2017, 08:15:08 PM
In past hour, eye of #HurricaneMaria has begun to clear & warm. Intensification continues rapidly. Not good at all.
It's #Dvorak T-time
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/909839907186765824
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2017, 08:42:17 PM
Just want to echo others to say I really appreciate what you are doing here, Sig. It takes quite a bit of time to chase down the best hurricane links on my own and cycle through them regularly so the forum collection of breaking news is much more convenient. 

<snip>

Thanks, A-Team.  "Weather Twitter" has been operating at about 700% ever since Hurricane Harvey came on the scene.  The output is quite impressive -- or frightening, one might say! 
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2017, 09:39:47 PM
Jose and Maria: wind forecasts.
The second link has the rather cool GIF.  The third link is the live, on-line map:


If you ever wanted a demonstration of typical scale of tropical vs extra-tropical systems:
    https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/909859216768274432 (https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/909859216768274432)

GFS peak gusts over the next 8 days across the N Atlantic -->
https://twitter.com/wxcharts/status/909858834600079360 (https://twitter.com/wxcharts/status/909858834600079360)

http://wxcharts.eu/?model=gfs&region=atl&chart=max_gustsmph&run=12&step=189&plottype=10&lat=36.086&lon=-82.506&skewtstep=0 (http://wxcharts.eu/?model=gfs&region=atl&chart=max_gustsmph&run=12&step=189&plottype=10&lat=36.086&lon=-82.506&skewtstep=0)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: oren on September 19, 2017, 01:53:24 AM
[7:33pm] Recon finds an estimated pressure of 926mb and surface winds of 160 mph in #Maria's northwestern eyewall.
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/909923538009812993 (https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/909923538009812993)

I guess this means Cat 5.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 02:49:42 AM
Update: NHC has upgraded Hurricane Maria to Category 5. It was Cat 1 this morning, one of the fastest intensifying hurricanes in history.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909935920106823680 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909935920106823680)

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 61.1 West. Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.  On the forecast
track, the core of Maria will move near Dominica and the adjacent
Leeward Islands during the next few hours, over the extreme
northeastern Caribbean Sea the remainder of tonight and Tuesday, and
approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some additional strengthening is possible
tonight, but some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the
next day or two.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Hurricane
Hunter data is 925 mb (27.32 inches).
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/181458.shtml? (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/181458.shtml?)


This is a 15hr satellite loop. 15hrs. #Maria
https://twitter.com/WxDeFlitch/status/909943635310821377 (https://twitter.com/WxDeFlitch/status/909943635310821377)
IR satellite GIF at the link shows Cat 1 to Cat 5
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 03:08:53 AM
While #Maria has intensified very quickly, Wilma 2005 was still faster: cat 1 to cat 5 in less than 12 hours vs Maria about 15 hours.
https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/909941752357847041


Image from: https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/909931626192400384
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 03:13:41 AM
Warm water extending farther east?

Map showing location where all Atlantic Cat. 5 hurricanes on record first reached Cat. 5 status.  #Irma #Maria
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/909947668163526656
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 03:17:33 AM
Strong words used by @NWSSanJuan to describe the impacts of #Maria. View their just updated Local Statement here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTCA82-TJSJ-English.shtml (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTCA82-TJSJ-English.shtml)

https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/909946044288503808 (https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/909946044288503808)
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 03:22:25 AM
#Maria is about to make landfall in #Dominica as a powerful Category 5 major hurricane with sustained winds of 160 MPH. #GOES16
https://twitter.com/NASA_SPoRT/status/909947826754457600
IR satellite GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 03:26:12 AM
Major #lightning outbreak in #Maria inner core detected by @VaisalaGroup #GLD360. Likely influenced by orographic lift over #Dominica
https://twitter.com/COweatherman/status/909946452817846272
GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Yamatin on September 19, 2017, 03:28:39 AM
Yamatin: many thanks for your input.

Given that floodwaters tend to be fast in, slow out, would you agree that it is likely that there would be a gradient of pollution around a contaminated flooded site rather than dilution over a substantial area?  I have seen this effect for small scale flooding: a foot or two of water lingering for a week or two.  I have no experience of anything deeper or longer lasting. (For which I am eternally grateful)

I would mostly agree with that. The flood would need sufficient velocity to be able to pick up a significant amount of soil, at which point I assume at that speed it is likely going to be moving for a few miles before slowing down sufficiently to settle in mass. Depending on the local topography and other obstacles there could be localized areas with more settling, but the Superfund-related soil would have mixed with cleaner soil causing further dilution. (While dilution is not the solution to pollution, it does tend to provide a lot of protection in situations like this)

For an example, we can use one of the most common soil contaminants, lead. One would prefer to have concentrations in soil under 100pm although concentrations up to 400pm are common in industrial areas and considered safe for children to play in per EPA. The Superfund sites that I have worked on regularly hit between 1,000ppm and 15,000ppm. The high end of that spectrum is usually very localized areas covering maybe 100 sq.m in total, with the remaining say 10 acres averaging around 3,000ppm. If the first inch of soil is stripped by the flood (usually much cleaner than the soil a few inches below the surface) over the entire 10-acre area and then deposited over 1 square mile, which seems highly conservative given the sprawling nature of floods, then the average added concentration to that 1 square mile is just under 50ppm. This is potentially enough to sufficiently contaminant farmland depending on the gradient of the settlement, but otherwise not that big a concern.

Second the kudos to Sig for the great work on keeping this thread updated!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 03:32:12 AM
Satellite imagery comparison offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast of a winter cyclone #bombogenesis last year and #HurricaneJose today
https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/909945227699458048
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 04:04:22 AM
"My roof is gone. I am at the complete mercy of the hurricane."
Roosevelt Skerrit, Prime Minister of Dominica, tonight
My God.
     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909960187435536385

#HurricaneMaria  #Dominica Roosevelt Skerrit Prime Minister of Dominica, check out his profile on Facebook
https://twitter.com/royalnoah123/status/909951947356155904


UPDATE: 41 minutes ago, a Facebook post:  "I have been rescued."
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 04:10:12 AM
Number of cat 5 hurricane landfalls on an island in the Lesser Antilles:
1851-2016 : 0
2017: 2 #Irma, #Maria
https://twitter.com/isodrosotherm/status/909958594551877632
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 04:34:59 AM
It looks like Dominica's radio just went out at 10:22 pm ET
https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/909966255691583489

Report that building near to #DBS Radio #Dominica collapsed and part of that structure ended up in the #DBS newsroom. #HurricaneMaria
https://twitter.com/CBCAdrianH/status/909968228247621635

UPDATE: The main hospital in Roseau, Dominica has lost its roof
https://twitter.com/KevzPolitics/status/909958398082469888
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 04:54:17 AM
Meanwhile, say goodbye to Tropical Depression Lee:

...LEE HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024522.shtml?cone#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024522.shtml?cone#contents)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 04:57:34 AM
 This evening's key messages for Jose.

Edit: 11pm update
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/909978788985016321
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 05:08:57 AM
11pm update:
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA MOVING OVER DOMINICA...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques

More:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/190254.shtml? (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/190254.shtml?)

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: jai mitchell on September 19, 2017, 06:17:11 AM
what the HELL is Jose doing?  Waiting in the wings for Maria to come up so that they can do the Fujiwhara shuffle???

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/09/23/0600Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-83.22,33.15,1879/loc=-73.047,25.250

I am at a total loss at this, it just doesn't feel right. 

I guess the biggest issue is, how accurate can the models be now that we have hurricanes jumping 2 categories above model projections in only 24 hours and a stationary hurricane off of the New England coastline???

Seriously, long range forecasts show Jose doing ANOTHER loop and possibly moving west with a major hurricane Maria moving into the U.S. south. . . it baffles the mind. . .
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: oren on September 19, 2017, 07:24:51 AM
In all fairness, the NHC kept discussed the possibility of rapid intensification for Maria and said it would not be surprising at all.
Jose on the other hand is a strange beast and feels like it's been around for eternity. But it surely must weaken given its location with cold SSTs and wind shear.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 01:12:19 PM
Atlantic Category 5 hurricanes (33 in total):
1851-1900: 0
1901-1930: 2
1931-1960: 8
1961-1990: 10
1991-2017: 13
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/hurdat/hurdat2-1851-2016-041117.txt (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/hurdat/hurdat2-1851-2016-041117.txt)
         https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910016642104664064 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910016642104664064)


Heartbreaking statement from Roosevelt Skerrit, Prime Minister of Dominica:
"We will need help, my friend, we will need help of all kinds."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910025881837502464 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910025881837502464)

Just 24 hours ago, #Maria was a Category 1. Now, by all accounts, Dominica lays largely in ruins from a Category 5.
An unfathomable tragedy.
--
There was no computer model showing this would happen, although there were hints. Meteorological conditions were ideal for strengthening.
--
What transpired on Monday was a true nightmare, a worst-case scenario.
--
If you are in P.R. or the Virgin Islands: Do whatever you must do on Tuesday to prepare for Maria. Help each other.
This is the big one.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910031950441799680 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910031950441799680)



Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 01:14:50 PM
Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
510 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...MARIA REGAINS CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...


Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Maria has reintensified to category 5
status, with estimated maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (260
km/h).
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT5+shtml/190906.shtml (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT5+shtml/190906.shtml)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 01:16:33 PM
5am update:  Key messages for Hurricane Jose.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 01:23:16 PM
A video from the southern tip of Guadeloupe, which was hit by the NE of Hurricane Maria's eyewall. Very violent winds and lashing rain!
     https://twitter.com/liamdutton/status/910098478747062272

[Direct] #Maria #Basseterre Les vents sont extrêmement violents. Restez confinés. Ne sortez sous aucun prétexte.
https://twitter.com/Prefet971/status/910013471059824640
Unbelievable video at this link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: oren on September 19, 2017, 01:33:40 PM
This guy Jose has been named two weeks ago. It's probably not the longest streak ever, but it sure is a lot. Enough.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 02:03:00 PM
Eyewall Replacement Cycle. 

Hurricane #Maria has regained overnight much of the strength it lost over Dominica. Not sure how long 7-mile wide eye will last before ERC.
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/910100281144365057
Image from Hurricane Hunter plane data.



@fema Commodities & teams are positioned to support USVI & PR.  #maria
https://twitter.com/FEMA_Brock/status/910098107102359552
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 02:11:39 PM
 :'(

L'oeil de #Maria passant sur la #Dominique vu du satellite la nuit dernière. #Dominica
https://twitter.com/KeraunosObs/status/910107770158030848
IR satellite video at the link: Eye of Maria passing over Dominica last night.



Next 12-24 hours: #Maria will be crossing a pool of very warm water with practically zero wind shear. 80°F sea temps go down ~300ft.
https://twitter.com/AlexJLamers/status/910111311778009088
Images below.

From the 5 AM Advisory: probability of hurricane conditions as high as 83% in St. Croix, 80% in Vieques, and 75% in San Juan PR. #Maria
https://twitter.com/AlexJLamers/status/910110196348964865
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 02:17:32 PM
Cloud altitudes in Hurricane #Maria a few hours ago, derived from @OxfordPhysics' ORAC algorithm.
Satellite data from @NASA.
https://twitter.com/simon_rp84/status/910103190674296832

55000 feet = 16,764 meters
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 02:23:39 PM
Last evening:

The big swells from #Jose have arrived at Buoy 44009 located 25 miles SE of Cape May NJ.
https://twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/910020143899590657

#HurricaneJose surf putting on a good show for tourists in Hereford's Inlet this eve in North Wildwood NJ tonight!
https://twitter.com/zeke_o/status/909913698663370753
Video at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on September 19, 2017, 02:56:52 PM
In all fairness, the NHC kept discussed the possibility of rapid intensification for Maria and said it would not be surprising at all.
Agree. My sense also is that near-real time hurricane prediction products have been doing rather well. If they've already picked the low-hanging fruit and some a bit higher, it's questionable though if much improvement will result from throwing tons more money at models or computer time.

For example, it seems that the lowest central pressure is critical but that cannot be obtained by remote sensing and requires periodic manual dropsondes from airplanes. Harvey went straight at the tip of Florida, the junction of the mainland with the Key West road, so predicting east or west coast was as difficult as saying which way a pencil balanced on its tip is going to fall.

With Maria, all the talk yesterday pm about landfall in Puerto Rico yet today it is projected to glance off, going to the north with the highest winds in the NE corner well off the island. That's a subtle but critical flaw in track prediction (assuming the GFS or ECMWF happens) because Maria would have very much have weakened over land.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 19, 2017, 06:56:40 PM
Here is a Windy forecast of the locations of Jose and Maria on Sept 26 2017; and while they both largely miss the Eastern Seaboard, they are clearly telecommunicating significant amount of tropical energy into northern latitudes.  If enough hurricanes follow this pathway we could see an associated acceleration of Arctic Amplification:
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 19, 2017, 07:02:55 PM
Scribbler has a nice piece on Maria's jump to a CAT 5 hurricane:

Title: "Hellish Intensification — Maria’s Winds Jump 50 mph to CAT 5 Strength in Just 12 Hours"

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/09/19/hellish-intensification-marias-winds-jump-50-mph-to-cat-5-strength-in-just-12-hours/

Extract: "A special statement from the National Hurricane Center reports that Maria has reached Category 5 intensity — with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph and a minimum central pressure of 924 mb. This is, perhaps, one of the most rapid intensifications the Atlantic basin has ever seen — with the storm seeing a 40 mb drop in pressure in approximately 6 hours and crossing the Category 4 threshold to Cat 5 intensity in even less time."
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Ned W on September 19, 2017, 07:33:38 PM
A cursory search of the ASIF seems to suggest that this paper (from earlier this year) hasn't been mentioned yet:

Emanuel, Kerry.  2017.  Will Global Warming Make Hurricane Forecasting More Difficult? (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0134.1)  BAMS, Mar. 2017, 495-501.

Hurricane track forecasts have improved steadily over the past few decades, yet forecasting hurricane intensity remains challenging. Of special concern are the rare instances of tropical cyclones that intensify rapidly just before landfall, catching forecasters and populations off guard, thereby risking large casualties. Here, we review two historical examples of such events and use scaling arguments and models to show that rapid intensification just before landfall is likely to become increasingly frequent and severe as the globe warms.
Anecdotally at least, that sure seems to be what's happening this year.  And via Twitter, Zeke Hausfather has made a nice chart showing a big decrease in the time from Cat 1 -> Cat 5:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKGPz4aU8AAbwsa.jpg (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKGPz4aU8AAbwsa.jpg)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 08:55:27 PM
Another strong earthquake in Mexico.  Magnitude 7.1, southeast of Mexico City.  Many places had held earthquake drills today for the anniversary of the major 1985 quake that struck there.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mexico-city-earthquake-09-19-2017/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mexico-city-earthquake-09-19-2017/)


Edit:  video of facade falling from building in Mexico City.  Metro Etiopía is a metro station there.

#TenemosSismo  @AristeguiOnline #RT COMPARTAN #SISMO esto es en metro Etiopía @STCMetroGDF
https://twitter.com/Lobillo_feroz/status/910208849591902208 (https://twitter.com/Lobillo_feroz/status/910208849591902208)
Video at the link.

Video sent to @CKNW shows dust clouds rising in #Mexico City following 7.1 #earthquake
https://twitter.com/DuranCKNW980/status/910218488857296896 (https://twitter.com/DuranCKNW980/status/910218488857296896)
Video at the link.

Edit: second image.
From: https://twitter.com/arturoangel20/status/910214505958903808 (https://twitter.com/arturoangel20/status/910214505958903808)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 09:17:35 PM
Suomi-NPP #VIIRS high res view of Cat 5 Hurricane #Maria moving NW away from #Dominica. Note gravity waves rippling out from the eye.
https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/910217037426851845
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 09:28:13 PM
Serious question:  Was there a hurricane in the Caribbean or East Pacific on or around September 19, 1985?

7.1 Earthquake in Mexico City. This is outside terminal 2 at Mexico City Airport
https://twitter.com/conecora1/status/910214143323643905
Image below.  Front wheels of car have fallen into a crevice that has opened in the pavement.

Roads around Terminal 2 at Mexico City International Airport are damaged. Flights diverting
https://twitter.com/FlightAlerts777/status/910220179828854785
Another image of the road damage at the link.

Se derrumba edificio en Alvaro Obregón, Condesa, CDMX
Huele a gas. Personas heridas salen del lugar
Bing translation:  Building collapses in Álvaro Obregón, Countess, CDMX smells gas. Injured persons out of the place
https://twitter.com/RuidoEnLaRed/status/910208627268575232
Video at the link.

Edit:
The @USGS PAGER estimating 100-1000 fatalities and $100M-1B in damage from Mexico's 7.1 quake today.
https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/910223690603876352
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 09:35:46 PM
Low earth orbit (~250 miles, 400 km) is not far enough away to see all of Maria very well....  :o

Station cameras captured dramatic views of Hurricane Maria as it churned through Caribbean Sept. 19 as a category 5 storm.
https://twitter.com/Space_Station/status/910223646702088193
Video at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2017, 09:43:24 PM
Bill Karins:  I told cashier at grocery store about Mexico City earthquake. She said "ever since that eclipse everything going crazy." I couldn't argue
https://twitter.com/BillKarins/status/910217887796908032
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: oren on September 19, 2017, 09:44:38 PM
Hurricane Hunters have just found flight level winds of 155kt, or ~180mph in the N-NE eyewall. Expecting an intensity bump up in NHC update.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/910203321457217537 (https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/910203321457217537)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on September 20, 2017, 12:19:17 AM
These wind field maps are an interesting use of color for magnitude and meteo widgets instead of vector arrows. Note the route of the plane in lower left as it transects can be inferred though not the times. The satellite IR overlay mentioned in bottom left seems to be missing. There must be a need for regular observational wind speeds input into tracking models that isn't being met by doppler radar or sonar.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: jai mitchell on September 20, 2017, 02:05:08 AM
These wind field maps

cold chills

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQzFLBLnlow (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQzFLBLnlow)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2017, 02:33:37 AM
8pm update.  Could not be worse....

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
800 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA MOVING CLOSER TO ST CROIX IN
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...PREPARATIONS AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL
FLOODING AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...

...
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 64.2 West. Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday night.  On the
forecast track, the eye of Maria will move near or over St. Croix
in the U.S. Virgin Islands tonight, cross Puerto Rico on Wednesday,
and then pass just north of the coast of the Dominican Republic
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Maria is a potentially catastrophic category
5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some
fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or so, but
Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5
hurricane as it moves near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico.  Slow weakening is expected after the hurricane emerges over
the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 909 mb (26.84 inches).
...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/192357.shtml? (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/192357.shtml?)

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2017, 02:39:09 AM
#Maria now the strongest storm of 2017 with a pressure down to 909hpa.  The last storm to get a pressure that low was Dean in a decade ago.
https://twitter.com/WHEC_RSPETA/status/910298704749395970
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2017, 02:42:20 AM
BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 58A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...HURRICANE JOSE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...
...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/192338.shtml? (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/192338.shtml?)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2017, 03:00:18 AM
They don't make hurricanes much stronger than #Maria is right now. Satellite presentation the most robust yet. (loop via @UWSSEC)
https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/910304713417084928
IR satellite loop at the link.

Image below from Weather Underground's Storm app.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2017, 03:14:43 AM
Serious question:  Was there a hurricane in the Caribbean or East Pacific on or around September 19, 1985?

7.1 Earthquake in Mexico City. This is outside terminal 2 at Mexico City Airport
https://twitter.com/conecora1/status/910214143323643905
Image below.  Front wheels of car have fallen into a crevice that has opened in the pavement.

<snip>

Answering my own question (about the possibility of a hurricane occurring around the time of the great Sept 19, 1985 Mexico City earthquake):
Powerful Hurricane Gloria was headed across the Atlantic on Sept 19, 1985 -- although it did not intensify into a hurricane until September 22, north of the Lesser Antilles.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2017, 03:22:41 AM
Cool!

Watch the seismic waves from the #MexicoCityearthquake cross the US
http://ds.iris.edu/ds/products/usarraygmv/ (http://ds.iris.edu/ds/products/usarraygmv/)

https://twitter.com/iris_epo/status/910297850927607808 (https://twitter.com/iris_epo/status/910297850927607808)
Video at the link.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2017, 03:52:45 AM
Seen on an overflight of St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands, last weekend.

Hurricane survivor writes ‘SEND TESLA’ with the debris of destroyed home
https://electrek.co/2017/09/19/tesla-hurricane-survivor-writes-send-tesla/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: nicibiene on September 20, 2017, 07:31:19 AM
Answering my own question (about the possibility of a hurricane occurring around the time of the great Sept 19, 1985 Mexico City earthquake):
Powerful Hurricane Gloria was headed across the Atlantic on Sept 19, 1985 -- although it did not intensify into a hurricane until September 22, north of the Lesser Antilles.

Very interesting connection-just digged in Wikipedia: additionally to Gloria occured another tropical depression Henri northwards! Maybe a compairable situation....

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_Atlantic_hurricane_season

If you imagine that huge amount of water getting piled up there-just look at the dry beaches caused by Irmas power. Think that movement of water masses could trigger earthquakes like that...  :o
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: morganism on September 20, 2017, 10:26:16 AM
Interesting, didn't know all the pharma research companies were there. They must have generators....

https://annexx51.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/puerto-rico-map-pharmaceutical-companies.jpg
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: morganism on September 20, 2017, 10:43:27 AM
San Juan PR radar

http://www.weather.gov/sju/ (http://www.weather.gov/sju/)


Only one still updating tonight

https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp (https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp)

Guy on the ground not getting updates out now

https://twitter.com/iCyclone (https://twitter.com/iCyclone)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on September 20, 2017, 01:39:23 PM
Long-term consequences of Irma and Maria.

One thing I never thought of was that the US Virgin Islands Government and economy is totally broke.
I also totally forgot about that enormous (though currently in mothballs) oil terminal and refinery. What a place to put a massive refinery.

One wonders what the future holds after Irma and now Maria.

http://stthomassource.com/content/2017/04/10/the-v-i-budget-crisis-how-did-we-get-here-how-do-we-get-out/ (http://stthomassource.com/content/2017/04/10/the-v-i-budget-crisis-how-did-we-get-here-how-do-we-get-out/)
Part 1 of a Series on The V.I. Budget Crisis

The V.I. government is at a crossroads. Along with this year’s $110 million deficit, the USVI is facing ongoing structural deficits of around $170 million per year out of a locally funded budget of around $850 million. It has outstanding debt of more than $2 billion, not counting the debts of the government-owned Water and Power Authority, which is also facing serious financial problems. It is also facing a $3 billion unfunded pension liability and a pension plan projected to cease being able to pay full pensions by 2023. And for the first time, after two rounds of ratings downgrades in less than a year, lenders have refused to buy V.I. government bonds, making it very difficult to smooth over the gaps.

Limetree Bay Terminals, LLC (LB Terminals) is the new owner of the former Hovensa oil terminal at Limetree Bay, St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands.

LB Terminals is committed to continuing the site’s legacy of safe and environmentally sound practices. LB Terminals employees and contractors make both Safety and Environmental Stewardship the first requirement of every activity.

The LB Terminals facility consists of approximately 32 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum product storage, idled refinery units with total peak processing capacity of 650 thousand barrels per day, a deep-water port with 10 petroleum docks, 1 bulk product dock, six tug boats, and various associated equipment and inventory.

http://viconsortium.com/business/st-croix-not-ready-for-amount-of-jobs-sinopec-will-bring-oil-refining-at-limetree-bay-a-great-possibility-mapp-says/ (http://viconsortium.com/business/st-croix-not-ready-for-amount-of-jobs-sinopec-will-bring-oil-refining-at-limetree-bay-a-great-possibility-mapp-says/)

ST. THOMAS, GOVERNMENT HOUSE — Governor Kenneth Mapp on Tuesday revealed details of his China delegation trip that he says will transform the economy of St. Croix in the coming years, estimating that Sinopec — a leading AA-rated Chinese state oil company traded in Hong Kong, Shanghai and New York worth about $1.5 trillion, through its stake in the former HOVENSA refinery with ArcLight Partners, LLC — will bring hundreds of jobs to the Big Island through major investments in the south shore facility, including a substantial increase in oil storage and, importantly, oil refining.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2017, 02:59:28 PM
You couldn't hit Puerto Rico more squarely. #Maria is centered directly on top of the island. First Category 4 there since 1932.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/910484467231358976
Image below.

The eye of #Maria continues to move over Puerto Rico after making landfall at 6:15 AM local time as a Category 4 hurricane.
https://twitter.com/severestudios/status/910484452849184769
IR satellite GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2017, 03:03:38 PM
Just one of many scenes of flooding ongoing now in PR.
    https://twitter.com/WeatherFlowCHAS/status/910484329163378688
AHORA: Urbanizacion Quintas de Canovanas, tras Rio Grande de Loiza salirse de su cauce. Observe los buzones florando!
https://twitter.com/ivettesosaT2/status/910462985361088514
First image below.

The ferocious wind is incredible, but the rain is coming in buckets. Huge and dangerous flood threat as rivers rapidly rise. #Maria #MariaPR
     https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/910485506433183745
The river gauges across Puerto Rico are all going straight up toward record flooding with a lot of rain yet to come. #Maria
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/910477703891087360
Second image below.


Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2017, 03:09:38 PM
Unusual not to hear from Josh in 4 hours. All means of communication must be down.

Inusual no escuchar de este "storm chaser" en 4 horas.
     https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/910484743686283265

4:30 am. Building groaning. Airplane sounds. Pressure falling like a rock. 967 mb #MARIA @WeatherNation
https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/910424719609929728



Our continuously-updated #Maria summary, including the latest winds, surge, #flood reports and where #Maria is headed next...
     https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/910485158150754310

100+ mph winds are lashing Puerto Rico and additional #hurricane warnings have been issued.
[The Weather Channel's] Full #Maria forecast:  https://weather.com/amp/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-maria-category-5-leeward-islands-virgin-islands-puerto-rico.html
     https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/910484869720842242


Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2017, 04:11:12 PM
The eye of Maria came ashore near the town of Yabucoa, Puerto Rico, around 6:15 a.m. AST Wednesday as a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph.

The eyewall of Maria continues to carve through Puerto Rico, passing just south San Juan, lashing the capital with eyewall winds. In advance of the eyewall, the National Weather Service issued a "extreme wind warnings" for several eastern Puerto Rico municipalities.
https://weather.com/amp/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-maria-category-5-leeward-islands-virgin-islands-puerto-rico.html
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 20, 2017, 04:31:28 PM
In the linked article Scribbler not only discusses hurricane Maria, but also points out that the Accumulated Cyclone Energy for 2017 to date has been well above the climatology (see the attached image):

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/09/19/catastrophic-category-5-maria-strengthens-as-it-tracks-toward-puerto-rico/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2017, 05:53:36 PM
Houston, Texas.  No surprise here if you've been following the Hurricane 2017 thread.

Houston FEMA flood map missed 75 percent of flood damages, says new study
Researchers examined flood damage claims from several southeast Houston suburbs between 1999 to 2009 and found that FEMA's flood predictive maps failed to show 75 percent of flood damage.

"The takeaway from this study, which was borne out in Harvey, is that many losses occur in areas outside FEMA's 100-year flood plain," said study co-author Antonia Sebastian in a prepared statement.

According to researchers, three in four flood damage claims flew under the radar during the 10 year period because they didn't reach the 100-year event threshold. In other words, short and intense rainfall events may not be reflected on FEMA's 100-year flood plain map.

For example, Sebastian said an area that receives 13.5 inches of rain in 24 hours might be counted by FEMA, but not an area that receives 6 inches of rain in only a few hours, despite causing serious flooding. ...
http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/houston/amp/Houston-FEMA-flood-map-missed-75-percent-of-flood-12212943.php (http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/houston/amp/Houston-FEMA-flood-map-missed-75-percent-of-flood-12212943.php)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2017, 05:57:56 PM
NWS:  At 11am EDT, #Maria's center was just 30 miles west of @NWSSanJuan. Staff is safe, continues to operate and issue warnings.
     https://twitter.com/NWS/status/910527668826734592
Image below.

Flash Flood Emergency continues for Trujillo Alto, Gurabo, Carolina, Loiza, Las Piedras, Caguas, Canovanas, Juncos, San Lorenzo #prwx
https://twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/910527667543224321

Many of Puerto Rico's river gauges reporting "major flooding" as of 11:30a. Widespread 15-20"+ totals estimated.
https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/910526886396219392
Second and third images below. Washington Post article link at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2017, 06:00:11 PM
"Deep Thunder did a good job here."
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/910525086024728577
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2017, 08:49:58 PM
Maria has left Puerto Rico in shambles.
100% of the island of 3.5M Americans is now without power -- could be that way for weeks or months.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910572846484684800 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910572846484684800)
IR satellite GIF at the link.

“Anyone with electricity is using a generator.”
Hurricane Maria leaves all of Puerto Rico without power
http://abcnews.go.com/International/hurricane-maria-leaves-puerto-rico-power-striking/story?id=49971859 (http://abcnews.go.com/International/hurricane-maria-leaves-puerto-rico-power-striking/story?id=49971859)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2017, 08:57:26 PM
And another sizeable earthquake!

A 6.1 magnitude earthquake has struck off the coast of #Japan - no tsunami warning has been issued
http://www.itv.com/news/2017-09-20/earthquake-strikes-off-the-coast-of-japan/ (http://www.itv.com/news/2017-09-20/earthquake-strikes-off-the-coast-of-japan/)
    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/910572201543430150 (https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/910572201543430150)

(There was a magnitude 6.1 quake about 250 km from New Zealand last night, too.  The earth shrugs....)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2017, 09:21:01 PM
Hurricanes don't like land and hate mountains even more. (if they had feelings). Storm now back over water, but weakened.  #maria
https://twitter.com/growingwisdom/status/910577662153908225
Satellite GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2017, 09:33:30 PM
Forecasting skills won't get rusty the next 7 days.  Canadian, Japanese, Euro, and USA models all say we need to watch #Maria.
https://twitter.com/growingwisdom/status/910577004050833408
Individual maps at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 21, 2017, 12:24:58 AM
What happens to the Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds map when a storm meanders around in a circle. #Jose  :o
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: jai mitchell on September 21, 2017, 01:46:49 AM
Puerto Rico's Emergency Manager "Puerto Rico is Destroyed"

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/hurricane-maria-makes-landfall-puerto-rico-category-4-storm-n802911 (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/hurricane-maria-makes-landfall-puerto-rico-category-4-storm-n802911)

"Once we're able to go outside, we're going to find our island destroyed," Emergency Management Director Abner Gómez Cortés said at a news briefing. Rosselló imposed a 6 p.m.-to-6 a.m. curfew, citing flood warnings and the importance of keeping streets clear for repair and rescue teams.

 San Juan San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz told MSNBC that the devastation in the capital was unlike any she had ever seen.

"The San Juan that we knew yesterday is no longer there," Yulín said, adding: "We're looking at four to six months without electricity" in Puerto Rico, home to nearly 3.5 million people.

. . . four to six months. . .
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: jai mitchell on September 21, 2017, 01:49:34 AM
the 'big three' (so far) cat 4 u.s. landfalling hurricanes
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 21, 2017, 02:17:23 AM
BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
800 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...CORE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE MARIA GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM
PUERTO RICO...
...CONDITIONS NOW DETERIORATING OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 67.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas
...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/192357.shtml? (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/192357.shtml?)


More incredible river levels in Puerto Rico. Can't imagine how bad things are right now. #Maria #PuertoRico
https://twitter.com/DavidBernardTV/status/910641359186472960 (https://twitter.com/DavidBernardTV/status/910641359186472960)
First image below.

"My moms friend in Puerto Rico sent us this video she took from her apartment #hurricanemaria #maria #MariaPR #pr "
https://twitter.com/TheHungryCondor/status/910626553414979586 (https://twitter.com/TheHungryCondor/status/910626553414979586)
Storm video at the link.

Starting To receive images from Puerto Rico. My sister just sent me this. It’s from Utuado my hometown. #HurricaneMaria
     https://twitter.com/AntonioParis/status/910581641164312581 (https://twitter.com/AntonioParis/status/910581641164312581)
Second image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 21, 2017, 02:38:22 AM
#Maria's eye has reappeared with sustained winds of 110 MPH. Strengthening possible, per @NHC_Atlantic. 30-second #GOES16 LWIR imagery.
https://twitter.com/NASA_SPoRT/status/910654439102582785
GIF at the link.

NASA Earth images (below):
Hurricane Maria Lashes Puerto Rico https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=91004
 #HurricaneMaria #MariaPR #PuertoRico
https://twitter.com/NASAEarth/status/910657792524132352
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 21, 2017, 03:00:31 AM
For a storm that spent the day traversing high mountains, #Maria is looking very strong: https://t.co/6K5HyRReYy
 click map to zoom #wetter
https://twitter.com/WeatherdotUS/status/910662731182886913
First image below.

#Maria's eye apparent.  Peak winds near 105 mph with Integrated Kinetic Energy over 50 TJ now based mainly on earlier @53rdWRS flight.
https://twitter.com/hwind/status/910665893373411328
Second image below.

The combo of #ERC+#PuertoRico interaction substantially broadened #Maria's wind field. 65kt FL winds have doubled in size the last 36hrs.
     https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/910665529437847554
Third and fourth images below; compared as GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 21, 2017, 03:02:43 AM
USGS River Gauge Rio Mameyes (El Yunque area) in PR went off the chart earlier this morning. Unknown how bad flooding is #Maria
https://twitter.com/28storms/status/910665269558857729
Image below.

NWS Miami is now backing up NWS San Juan. #Maria
https://twitter.com/AlexJLamers/status/910666901386391552
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 21, 2017, 03:06:10 AM
Inner eyewall of #HurricaneMaria as it went from circular and steady to elongated and gyrating wildly
https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/910532338735386624
GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 21, 2017, 03:09:06 AM
...this is for folks in Puerto Rico who might be trying to get in contact with emergency services.
https://twitter.com/Freeyourmindkid/status/910626844285833216
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: sidd on September 21, 2017, 08:46:03 AM
Perhaps this should be on a different thread, but here goes:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/black-knight-hurricane-harvey-could-130000796.html (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/black-knight-hurricane-harvey-could-130000796.html)

Harvey expected delinquencies:

"Post-Katrina mortgage delinquencies in Louisiana and Mississippi FEMA-designated disaster areas soared 25 percentage points, peaking at over 34 percent
A similar impact to Harvey-related disaster areas would equate to 300,000 borrowers missing at least one mortgage payment, and 160,000 becoming 90 or more days past due"

"Still, there are 1.18 million mortgaged properties in Harvey-related disaster areas, more than twice as many as were hit by Hurricane Katrina, with nearly four times the unpaid principal balance. This will be a long-term recovery. If the Harvey-related disaster areas follow the same trajectory as those hit by Katrina, within four months we could be looking at as many as 160,000 borrowers falling 90 or more days past due on their mortgages.”"

Now for Irma:

http://www.mpamag.com/market-update/3-1-million-mortgaged-homes-in-hurricane-irma-disaster-area-79406.aspx (http://www.mpamag.com/market-update/3-1-million-mortgaged-homes-in-hurricane-irma-disaster-area-79406.aspx)

3.1 million mortgaged homes in Hurricane Irma disaster area

But the kicker:

"He added that from a mortgage performance perspective, Irma’s path was not as impactful as it might have been. As the hurricane did not hit Puerto Rico as forcefully as was predicted, a further escalation of the island’s already-high mortgage delinquency rate was avoided.

“At more than 10%, Puerto Rico’s delinquency rate is nearly three times that of the U.S. average, as is its 5.8 percent serious delinquency rate. In contrast, the disaster areas declared in Florida have starting delinquency rates below the national average, providing more than a glimmer of optimism as we move forward,” said Graboske. "


O dear: we got Maria:

...

Puerto Rico was bust b4 this. They are so screwed.

sidd
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: TerryM on September 21, 2017, 10:55:37 AM
On topic I believe sidd
As the storms pass the financial picture will grow to be the more important story.


Wrote a bunch more - but it really did drift far from the topic.
Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Alexander555 on September 21, 2017, 11:46:43 AM
And it looks like Texas is not out of the water yet, but i'm not sure of it. I just learn to know ventusky. But if you accumulate the rainfall until next week, it looks alot. At some places up to 300 mm in just a few days, and it's a big area. Compared with their annual average rainfall it looks much.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on September 21, 2017, 11:47:12 AM
To add to long-term consequencs is the already rotten state of Govt finances and the economies of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on September 21, 2017, 12:15:36 PM
Puerto Rico was bust b4 this. They are so screwed. ....  As the storms pass the financial picture will grow to be the more important story.

Agree, economics will prove an interesting angle for every coming component of climate change. First the smaller islands, which have no prospects of ever having real economies, go hopelessly underwater economically, then the larger islands like PR which only limped along as a tax haven for pharmas, then the really big islands like North America which can only pay for so many katrinas, sandys, harveys, irmas, PRs, and St Croixs.

PR did not have deep pockets going into this; ironically the hurricane may give them a force majeure exit clause to their $72 billion debt. But who then would purchase the next go-round, hurricane redevelopment bonds?

PR is not a state; they are not represented in Congress, people cannot vote in elections. In terms of bond guarantees or massive federal aid to second-class citizens, not gonna happen. Instead, more millions will emigrate to NYC and Miami even as the flood of illegals into PR continues.

How Hedge Funds Are Pillaging Puerto Rico - The American Prospect
prospect.org/article/how-hedge-funds-are-pillaging-puerto-rico
Dec 11, 2015 - But looked at another way, Puerto Rico is just the latest battlefield for a phalanx of hedge funds called “vultures,” which pick at the withered ...

Hedge Funds That Flocked to Puerto Rico Bonds Face Long Road Out ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/.../hedge-funds-that-flocked-to-puerto-rico-bonds-face-l... (https://www.bloomberg.com/.../hedge-funds-that-flocked-to-puerto-rico-bonds-face-l...)
Apr 24, 2017 - Hedge funds first starting buying Puerto Rico debt in the summer of 2013 because they liked what they saw: A government that was paying high ...

Message of Puerto Rico Debt Crisis: Easy Bets Sometimes Lose - The ...
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/04/.../puerto-rico-creditors-hedge-funds.html?mcubz... (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/04/.../puerto-rico-creditors-hedge-funds.html?mcubz...)
May 4, 2017 - When some of Wall Street's savviest hedge funds piled into Puerto Rico's debt in 2014, it seemed like an easy bet: Buy up the island's bonds at ...

Aurelius hedge fund seeks to toss Puerto Rico's bankruptcy filing
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-puertorico-debt-bankruptcy-idUSKBN1AN27H (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-puertorico-debt-bankruptcy-idUSKBN1AN27H)
Aug 7, 2017 - Puerto Rico's bankruptcy, aimed at restructuring $72 billion of debt, violates the U.S. Constitution and should be dismissed, the Aurelius Capital ...

That's the first extruded hurricane imagery we've seen, very effective in perspective. There's a link to the fabulous full resolution 5033 x 2795 pixel image below and a snippet at scale attached. It's a Modis infrared from Terra. It was made from the grayscale using a linear temperature assumption for the DEM, then draped with the same image in the palette shown:colder clouds higher in the atmosphere are white; warmer lower clouds appear purple etc.

We can make these in ImageJ using "3D Surface Plot", only nowhere near as nicely. The person who made the image is not credited.

https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/91000/91004/maria_tmo_2017263_lrg.png (https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/91000/91004/maria_tmo_2017263_lrg.png)

The story that carries the image has some interesting bits:

The passage of the eye wall over 3,000-foot terrain must have resulted in incredible rainfall amounts—similar to Harvey but occurring in just a day,” said Stephen Munchak, a research meteorologist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=91004 (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=91004)

The highest elevations in PR are on Cerro de Punta at 4,390 feet (1,338 meters) and El Yunque at 3,494 feet (1,065 m). The mountain town of Caguas PR received almost 40" of rain in one day with 14.3" in one hour. The flow in the nearby river, the Rio Grande de Loiza, increased 200-fold, briefly exceeding 40,000 cfs.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 21, 2017, 01:05:58 PM
I can't fathom how terrifying it must be in Puerto Rico right now.
The entire island is without power, torrential rains are still falling.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910720636129071104 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910720636129071104)
Heartbreaking video at the link.

Anatomy of a heartbreaking disaster:
Mountains helped make Maria's heavy rains worse, valleys enhanced the flood.
A worst case scenario.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910722759549911042 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910722759549911042)
More at the lnk.

It's hard to imagine a worse day than the day Puerto Rico had today. Hurricane Maria & its flood have changed the lives of 3.5M people.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910724829585772544 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910724829585772544)
     NWS San Jaun: Catastrophic Flash Flooding continues with multiple Flash Flood Warnings in effect. #prwx
     https://twitter.com/nwssanjuan/status/910720038830821376 (https://twitter.com/nwssanjuan/status/910720038830821376)

In *less than one day* parts of Puerto Rico have received 24-36"+ of rain.
For context: Houston had 32" in *three days* during Harvey. Wow.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910732185069596672 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910732185069596672)

     Hurricane Maria Puerto Rico RAINFALL TOTALS update: 3 FEET! (USGS)
Caguas, PR: 36.28
Cidra: 28.70
Barranquitas: 25.84
Utuado: 19.61
https://twitter.com/accu_jesse/status/910663440213184512 (https://twitter.com/accu_jesse/status/910663440213184512)

A rain gauge near Caguas, Puerto Rico possibly set a new world record today:
12.37" fell in just 44min this morning.
http://gl1.chpc.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=CAIP4&unit=0&time=&hours=24&hour1=05&day1=21&month1=09&year1=2017&radius=25&past=0&order=1 (http://gl1.chpc.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=CAIP4&unit=0&time=&hours=24&hour1=05&day1=21&month1=09&year1=2017&radius=25&past=0&order=1)

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910754539631935488 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910754539631935488)
Graph at the link.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 21, 2017, 01:14:08 PM
The rain gauge near Caguas, PR also measured 14.31" in one hour.
That's a candidate for the most ever, worldwide.
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html%3Fentrynum=163.html (https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html%3Fentrynum=163.html)
    https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910756868309561344 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910756868309561344)

The flow in a nearby river, the Rio Grande de Loiza, increased 200-fold -- six times its previous record. Horrific.
https://waterdata.usgs.gov/pr/nwis/uv?site_no=50055000 (https://waterdata.usgs.gov/pr/nwis/uv?site_no=50055000)
     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910760542574346240 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910760542574346240)

On Wednesday, Caguas, P.R. got more rain in a single day (39.67") than Seattle usually gets all year (37").
It's a brave new world.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910763035723264000 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910763035723264000)
  See replies in image below.


Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 21, 2017, 01:25:56 PM
This Met Office video demonstrates the instruments they use to make rainfall observations, including the Tipping Bucket Raingauge.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JVOxLrMaWA8
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on September 21, 2017, 04:08:23 PM
People dress like that for work in the UK? Kneel on wet grass in dress pants, the stains will never come out.

PR is an impoverished US colony, sincerely doubt rural hamlets import rube goldberg tipping buckets from overseas. More likely for tropical storms, just have a 10' section of large diameter pvc pipe or culvert with sealed bottom stood on its end, no need for the amplification funnel on the top. Measure the height of a bobber after a big event or hourly just like a stream height gauge.

J Masters also thinks the really highest rain rates are artifactual but for different reasons:

Rainfall amounts in excess of 47 inches in 24 hours were recorded at three stations on the southwest side of El Yunque, the high mountainous area in the northeast corner of Puerto Rico; these are so extreme as to be unbelievable, and the gauges may have been impacted by flash flooding, or by a calibration problem at extreme precipitation rates:

96.65” at Quebrada Arenas, including 67.75” in one hour ending at 6 am.
72.07” at Barrio Montones, including 34.04” in one hour ending at 8:45 am.
47.25” at Rio Valenciano, including 19.66” in one hour ending at 7:11 am.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/maria-back-over-water-after-devastating-hit-puerto-rico (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/maria-back-over-water-after-devastating-hit-puerto-rico)

Maybe so but what is the point of all this record-keeping if whenever big numbers come in from people not dressed up for their Goldman Sachs interview, they are treated with great suspicion, the same with record temperatures from Pakistan, the assumption being brown people are dolts.

Stream gauges in the US: a torpedo-like device is lowered from an overhanging cable and its deflection by current measured in a cross section. As on the pivotal Colorado River and Paria River gauges at Lees Ferry. River gauges average over the whole upstream watershed collection area so aren't affected by wind; wet soil soon has negligible infiltration rates. USGS has river gauges because rain gauges do not provide a proxy.

From 3x identical gauges here in Tucson in monsoon events, horizontally blown rain from gusting winds can make a big difference by location.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 21, 2017, 05:20:14 PM
"From 3x identical gauges here in Tucson in monsoon events, horizontally blown rain from gusting winds can make a big difference by location."

That was my question.  How can rain gauges be accurate in something like the hurricane videos I posted above, where the rain is coming down sideways? :o  I hoped there was some specially-designed instrument to do that....
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: morganism on September 21, 2017, 08:49:49 PM
aggregator of weather model pages here

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/ (http://www.spaghettimodels.com/)

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on September 21, 2017, 09:46:35 PM
hoped there was some specially-designed instrument to ca measure rainfall in horizontal wind.
There is. It is called a storm sewer. The collection area is known, the inflow to the settling plant is measured, so the average volume per unit area of rainfall follows. Except that where I lived, people did illegal hookups of their sanitary sewer lines (until the city finally smoked out their vents). Clay soils and perched water table meant little lost there, the storm sewer lines leaked like crazy at their concrete joints but that too eventually gets to the plant.

I would guess at most San Juan would have a storm sewer system. The rest would just be uncontrolled runoff into nearby rivers or bays.

This doesn't work so well for the Colorado River catchment (Lake Powell water level at dam) because of drier soils, evaporation, ag and coal plant diversions, and sideways seepage into sandstone.

Where I live now, the rain just goes down the washes and sinks slowly through five thousand feet of alluvium. It would take tens of thousands of rain gauges to measure precip in Pima County AZ because the rain comes rarely but intensely in very localized thunderstorms. So they just use the airport gauge which has no relevance to people's lives or to climate change trends.

When I lived in Oregon, NWS threw out a rain gauge with 100 years of history for one of these self tipping buckets. They didn't overlap the two at all so there wasn't any way to know later which was biased when the big kink emerged from the data.

Where I lived on the Olympic Peninsula, the park twelve km up the road would get 12 meters of annual snowfall whereas in the rain shadow we got not so much as one flake. That always comes to mind when people here post nonsense like summer 2017 snowfall on the Arctic Ocean is just that recorded in 2-3 Canadian villages.

Temperature gauges have received tremendous scrutiny so all the weirdness like urban heat islands (aka Phoenix AZ) has been wrung out of those records. Rainfall, an OSU algorithm called PRISM, is modeling that now with some topographic precision.

My current impression: far fewer people are blogging this current hurricane ... not going to hit the US mainland so who cares. I have yet to see a sat phone twitter of the aftermath. Those don't need the electric grid, cell towers, phone poles or local internet. They're common around here, not that expensive any more.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2017, 01:26:33 AM
RMS Estimates Hurricane Irma Insured Losses from Wind, Storm Surge and Inland Flood Damage will be Between USD $35 and $55 Billion
The overall economic losses are estimated to be significantly higher, between $60 and $95 billion
LONDON, U.K. - September 20, 2017 -
RMS, a global risk modeling and analytics firm, has estimated that the insured loss from Hurricane Irma will be between $35 and $55 billion. This estimate represents the insured losses associated with wind, storm surge, and inland flood damage across Florida and the southeast United States (including losses to the National Flood Insurance Program). It also includes insured loss associated with wind and storm surge in the Caribbean.

RMS Best Industry Loss Estimate by Peril and Geography, in US$ Billions
Region   
              Total Insured Losses
               (including to NFIP)   
                             Total Economic Losses
United States     25 - 35        35 - 50
Caribbean         10 - 20        25 - 45
Total             35 - 55        60 - 95


Included in the industry estimate are losses to the National Flood Insurance Program of $2.5 to $5.5 billion that will add to the $7-10 billion estimated from Hurricane Harvey that occurred two weeks earlier. ...
http://www.rms.com/newsroom/press-releases/press-detail/2017-09-20/rms-estimates-hurricane-irma-insured-losses-from-wind-storm-surge-and-inland-flood-damage-will-be-between-usd-35-and-55-billion (http://www.rms.com/newsroom/press-releases/press-detail/2017-09-20/rms-estimates-hurricane-irma-insured-losses-from-wind-storm-surge-and-inland-flood-damage-will-be-between-usd-35-and-55-billion)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2017, 01:28:44 AM
The 2017 Atlantic season is still plugging along, but has already reached well-above average activity. October could bring more surprises.
https://twitter.com/Cyclonebiskit/status/910903807684616194
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2017, 01:33:39 AM
Michael E. Mann: If U don't believe unusually warm Sea Surface Temperatures meant more flooding from Harvey, you're a physics denier: 

"What We Know about the Climate Change–Hurricane Connection
Some links are indisputable; others are more subtle, but the science is improving all the time.
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/what-we-know-about-the-climate-change-hurricane-connection/

     https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann/status/910894954981023744


"Physics is a hoax invented by the Chinese"
https://twitter.com/Byteshift69/status/910952087638478850
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2017, 02:34:21 AM
#Maria is becoming annular. Annular storms feature a large, symmetric eye surrounded by a thick and uniform ring of intense convection
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/911022573311455232
GIF with additional images at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2017, 02:36:34 AM
Hong Kong gets my vote for best climate change poster.
     https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/911021589889560576
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2017, 02:40:39 AM
Large eye of Hurricane #Maria approaching the Turks and Caicos Islands with 125 mph winds
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml)
     https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedStorm/status/911020491430805504 (https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedStorm/status/911020491430805504)
      IR Satellite GIF at this link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2017, 02:42:53 AM
NWS Boston: At 825 this evening Nantucket reached 4.00 inches of rain for the event ( Jose) Much more closer to the center.
https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/911025236514164736
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2017, 01:34:23 PM
Sensible, non-dramatic reporting and comments on this busier-than-usual hurricane season. A rarity these days!

  Hurricanes: A perfect storm of chance and climate change?
  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/science-environment-41347527 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/science-environment-41347527)
https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/911130678120652800 (https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/911130678120652800)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2017, 01:38:47 PM
The scale of the devastation in Puerto Rico is truly epic. The governor’s spox says entire communities are now gone
https://www.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeednews/maria-1 (https://www.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeednews/maria-1)
https://twitter.com/passantino/status/911054237559283712 (https://twitter.com/passantino/status/911054237559283712)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2017, 07:55:01 PM
NWS San Juan seems to be treating the Caguas, PR data as accurate, at least preliminarily

Preliminary Major Hurricane Maria Estimated Rainfall across Puerto Rico & U.S. Virgin Islands. #prwx #usviwx
     https://twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/910983698597777409
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2017, 08:40:26 PM
NWS San Juan:
215PM FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for A Dam Failure in Isabela Municipality y Quebradillas Municipality in Puerto Rico... #prwx

At 210 PM, dam operators reported the Guajataca Dam is failing causing flash flooding downstream on the Rio Guajataca.  #PRWX

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION.  Busses are currently evacuating people from the area as quickly as they can #prwx
https://twitter.com/nwssanjuan/status/911294241460105218
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2017, 08:46:42 PM
The Guajataca Dam was built in 1929.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: sidd on September 22, 2017, 08:48:12 PM
Re: financial impact of Maria on Puerto Rico

1) 1.6 million housing units
2) 500K active mortgages, 10% delinquent, 5.8% over 90 days overdue
3) 50% of houses covered by policies for wind damage
3) Universal Insurance Group of Puerto Rico, Mapfre SA and Cooperativa Seguros Group are the main private insurers.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/hurricane-maria-exposes-a-common-problem-for-puerto-rico-homeowners-no-insurance-1505940660 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/hurricane-maria-exposes-a-common-problem-for-puerto-rico-homeowners-no-insurance-1505940660)

sidd
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: sidd on September 22, 2017, 10:17:22 PM
more detail on Puerto Rico (the very name "Rich Port" is a travesty)

44% of the population below poverty line, 1/3 energy consumption per capita and 1/2 CO2 exhaust

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/22092017/hurricane-maria-puerto-rico-congress-recovery-aid-poverty-climate-change

The weakest die first.

sidd
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on September 23, 2017, 01:59:20 AM
Looks like the spillway is eroding back as a growing headcut and the gates are gone; the concrete spillway walls are still in place and the dam berm itself is not failing. Not clear that the entire reservoir will drain nor how quickly. The press coverage to date is sensationalistic and completely wrong [on the structural aspects of dam failure]
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 23, 2017, 03:12:56 AM
I think reporting on the order to evacuate 70,000 people, and repeating the warnings from Puerto Rican officials, is completely appropriate.  Communication is limited, and all points of imminent failure may not be visible in the video.  Might be overblown -- but with night falling, the risk is undeniable.

NWS San Juan:  All Areas surrounding the Guajataca River should evacuate NOW. Their lives are in DANGER! Please SHARE! #prwx
https://twitter.com/nwssanjuan/status/911318089861562368 (https://twitter.com/nwssanjuan/status/911318089861562368)

Puerto Rico evacuates 70,000 after dam fails in Hurricane Maria's wake
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/22/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-dam (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/22/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-dam)

We just received new video of the dam failure coming out of Lake Guajataca, PR.
https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/911369885577441280 (https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/911369885577441280)
Aerial video at the link.

Breaking: #PuertoRico Dam  FAILING - 70 THOUSAND NOW UNDER EMERGENCY EVACUATION. OFFICIALS SAYING A CRACK IS  FORMING IN THE GUAJATACA DAM.
https://twitter.com/RobMarciano/status/911339820533895169 (https://twitter.com/RobMarciano/status/911339820533895169)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 23, 2017, 03:23:00 AM
I posted the top image earlier, then deleted it because I wasn't sure it was related to the dam.  From the video (second image), it does appear to be.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 23, 2017, 03:33:19 AM
8pm update:
Latest #Maria forecast from NHC. Track again shifts a little further to the west. Continue to monitor.
https://twitter.com/GarySzatkowski/status/911395540537049088
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Tigertown on September 23, 2017, 08:20:49 AM
Maria may be more of a problem for N Carolina than previously thought.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/09/27/0000Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-74.86,34.86,3000/loc=-77.915,35.774
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on September 23, 2017, 02:22:04 PM
wasn't sure it was related to the dam.  From the video (second image), it does appear to be.
No, it appears to be a road downstream of the dam, a failing bridge over the river. Note the cars are parked and have not been moved off, suggesting the event has peaked and no dam failure is anticipated.

The warnings may or may not have been appropriate depending on the acre-feet stored behind the dam at what depth and how much a slow headcut above a failed spillway affects river height downstream of the immediate gorge.

It looks to me like the dam itself is in no danger because water level in the reservoir had already dropped or been intentionally lowered. This is not quite Oroville and not at all like Addicks Reservoir or the 1928 catastrophic dike failure at Okeechobee.

My grievance is with an echo-chamber US press which did not analyze the photos at all, run them by an engineer, or so much as look at the 'before' which takes ten seconds at Google Earth, and so hyped structural damage misinformation which makes better click-bait than a broken floodgate and  a river running too high.

It's fine to repeat warnings from PR authorities whether they're justified or not, it's their call. However as they know, distribution of the warning would be highly ineffectual because of downed communication systems all over the island. I'm skeptical that a thousand buses and drivers were available, that roads and bridges were open, and that 70k people were evacuated under these conditions. To where?

Dam operators had plenty of time to lower reservoir levels prior to the storm and no doubt did. However in many mainland communities, dam construction is soon followed by home construction in the river's former one-year flood plain. And this will be the case too in rural PR where buildable land is scarce, people are poor, and little or no regulation is operative.

Problems soon follow because only so many cfs can safely be released from a dam. During a rainier than average rainy season, the operators may have to release too many cfs for too long relative to flood stage and spillway capacity or water will overtop the dam, as in Houston. Here the terrain looks so rugged that they may have built more to the sides. Still, there could be towns downriver.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 23, 2017, 07:12:18 PM
wasn't sure it was related to the dam.  From the video (second image), it does appear to be.
No, it appears to be a road downstream of the dam, a failing bridge over the river. Note the cars are parked and have not been moved off, suggesting the event has peaked and no dam failure is anticipated.

The bridge is "related" to the dam in that, as you say, it is just downstream, illustrating the damage to important infrastructure already happening, likely affecting evacuations.  Unfortunately, I did not get a another screen shot from that first video, because the camera turned 180° and showed the river well out of its banks and flooding the entire river valley.  Clearly, that is an emergency situation. 

In my search, I only saw one, tabloid-ish piece that mentioned anything like "a potential wall of water"; the rest noted the flash flood warning or flash flood emergency, as indeed it was.  A "dam failure" message quickly gets across the fact that much more water is coming than the river can hold, and flooding will immediately reach life-threatening levels.  The general public doesn't much care about what specifically is happening at the dam, they just need to know the people in its path need to move to safety, right away.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 23, 2017, 07:14:08 PM
Atlantic ocean temperatures remain much above normal -- argues for a continued active hurricane season in late Sept and October.
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/911356134048649216
Images below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 23, 2017, 07:25:11 PM
The final Advisory from @NHC_Atlantic for #Jose is hilarious! "After 70 advisories, enough is enough"
https://twitter.com/JamesSinko/status/911330848812752896
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on September 23, 2017, 07:35:16 PM
That was a major major hurricane on US territory, so I was thinking that with 15,500 paid employees, an outfit like CBS could do better than amateur twitter sites, maybe chase down some background. However the pay scale for reporters there is shocking, $40k a year or only 2x the salary of a Walmart greeter.

Now here is a real dam failure, the worst ever in US history. No storm, zero warning, followed by denial of responsibility. The cover-up went on for years. Site selection by prominent individual with no formal education in geology, built right across a fault in tremor-prone California.

 St. Francis Dam - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Francis_Dam (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Francis_Dam)
Jump to Collapse and flood wave - Two and a half minutes before midnight on March 12, 1928, the St. Francis Dam catastrophically failed.

St. Francis Dam collapse left a trail of death and destruction
www.latimes.com/local/.../la-me-stfrancis-dam-retrospective-20160319-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/.../la-me-stfrancis-dam-retrospective-20160319-story.html)
 The collapse of the St. Francis Dam on March 12, 1928, is, in terms of loss of life, the second-greatest disaster in California history. ... The death toll from the collapse varies from about 400 to more than 600. ... It swept into Castaic Junction and along the Santa Clara River bed to ...

The Flood: St. Francis Dam Disaster, William Mulholland, and the ...
https://www.kcet.org/.../the-flood-st-francis-dam-disaster-william-mulholland-and-the... (https://www.kcet.org/.../the-flood-st-francis-dam-disaster-william-mulholland-and-the...)
The 1928 failure of the colossal concrete structure resulted in one of the worst civic disasters in L.A. history.

Remembering California's 1928 St. Francis Dam Disaster - NBC ...
www.nbclosangeles.com/.../Francisquito-Canyon-Dam-St-Francis-Collapse-Disaster-C (http://www.nbclosangeles.com/.../Francisquito-Canyon-Dam-St-Francis-Collapse-Disaster-C)...
More than 400 people were killed in the March 1928 St. Francis Dam collapse, a civil engineering failure that unleashed a devastating ... some consider the failure of the St. Francis Dam to be the “worst American ...
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 23, 2017, 07:43:30 PM
"No federal agency dared on Friday to estimate how long it’ll take to re-energize Puerto Rico. If it’s any indication of how far they’ve gotten, the island’s power authority known as Prepa is only now starting to assess the damage."

A Storm's Never Destroyed a Grid Like Maria Ruined Puerto Rico's
The devastation that Maria exacted on Puerto Rico’s aging and grossly neglected electricity system when it slammed ashore as a Category 4 storm two days ago is unprecedented -- not just for the island but for all of the U.S. One hundred percent of the system run by the Puerto Rico Power Authority is offline, because Maria damaged every part of it. The territory is facing weeks, if not months, without service as utility workers repair power plants and lines that were already falling apart.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-22/a-storm-s-never-destroyed-a-grid-like-maria-ruined-puerto-rico-s (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-22/a-storm-s-never-destroyed-a-grid-like-maria-ruined-puerto-rico-s)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on September 23, 2017, 08:03:38 PM
They could go distributed solar, 19.5¢ per watt per container of 560 x 230 watt panels already in the Caribbean, and sell off salvaged heavy copper transmission lines to China. (Where I live, people don't even wait for a storm, just darkness, before stripping out the wires.) PR has some solar already but it's largely diesel, bunker fuel and coal. But maybe the new and old protective solar tariffs apply to PR?

There will unquestionably be a huge hit to near-future economic production. However I would assume, even more so than with Canada, that 'foreign' investors own almost everything in PR in the sense of capital and control. So they would take the losses rather than PRcans.

Meanwhile defaulting on the $70 billion in current govt debt and some strategic bankruptcies affecting overseas shareholders, givens unless the US govt bails out the hedge funds again, would allow a fresh start on issuing new debt. That's $20k of debt relief for every person on the island.

http://sunelec.com/home/ (http://sunelec.com/home/)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puerto_Rico_Electric_Power_Authority (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puerto_Rico_Electric_Power_Authority)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 23, 2017, 08:04:40 PM
Maria’s Forecast Path Edging Closer to Outer Banks of North Carolina
> The odds that the U.S. East Coast will see direct impacts from Maria next week have risen since Friday.
> Tropical Storm Lee 2.0 could go any number of directions in strength as well as movement.
> Invest 98E a flood threat for Mexico and West Texas; widespread heavy rains in excess of 5” (127mm)
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/marias-forecast-path-edging-closer-outer-banks (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/marias-forecast-path-edging-closer-outer-banks)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 23, 2017, 09:09:51 PM
"All indications are that Hurricane Maria has inflicted one of the most extreme and catastrophic weather events in American history. If the aid response is not swift, the situation in Puerto Rico has all the makings of a major humanitarian crisis."

Maria has plunged Puerto Rico into a humanitarian emergency
http://grist.org/article/maria-has-plunged-puerto-rico-into-a-humanitarian-emergency/ (http://grist.org/article/maria-has-plunged-puerto-rico-into-a-humanitarian-emergency/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Alexander555 on September 23, 2017, 09:54:31 PM
If you look at the forcast for San Salvador (+ 6 million population). That's like an average for the entire country of 1000 mm (25 in) at the end of next week.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 24, 2017, 03:03:31 AM
Ricardo Rossello, Governor of Puerto Rico:

Thanks [New York Senator Chuck Schumer] for your call today supporting our recovery efforts & for letting #PuertoRico know that you'll be a leader for our cause.

https://twitter.com/ricardorossello/status/911754578361831425
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 24, 2017, 03:28:21 AM
The two attached images are from Windy and Nullschool, respectively, showing that Maria is currently forecast to effect the barrier islands of North Carolina by Wednesday Sept 27 2017.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 24, 2017, 01:17:16 PM
Lack of Communication Hinders Efforts Amid Dam Failure Fear in Puerto Rico
Engineers are assessing whether the Guajataca Dam will fail after Hurricane Maria dumped 15 inches of rain on the area, swelling a man-made lake. But there was a lack of basic information about the potentially catastrophic breach, which was said to affect the towns of Isabela, Quebradillas and San Sebastian.

At first, authorities — including the governor’s office — had said up to 70,000 people could be affected. But local officials said the number of evacuated was much smaller. In Isabella, the mayor's office said a little more than 200 people were in shelters.
...
As of 1:55 p.m. Saturday, the weather service said "dam operators continued to report the threat of a failure of the Guajataca Dam, potentially causing life-threatening flash flooding downstream on Rio Guajataca."

"We were able to directly observe the damages of the Guajataca dam," Gov. Ricardo Rossello said on Twitter Saturday. "We re-affirm the evacuation order for the area." ...
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/lack-communication-amid-dam-failure-fears-hurricane-damaged-puerto-rico-n804236 (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/lack-communication-amid-dam-failure-fears-hurricane-damaged-puerto-rico-n804236)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 24, 2017, 01:21:23 PM
Tropical Storm Pilar

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182017
400 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

...PILAR BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 105.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 24, 2017, 01:27:34 PM
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS THAT MARIA IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA...
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 24, 2017, 01:38:17 PM
If you look at the forcast for San Salvador (+ 6 million population). That's like an average for the entire country of 1000 mm (25 in) at the end of next week.

Persistent band of precipitation (image below from Storm app); far reaches of GFS suggest it could organize and form a tropical system in October.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 24, 2017, 04:02:41 PM
Wow. Heartbreaking satellite loop, when you realize what it is: Maria knocking out Puerto Rico's power, clouds illuminated by moonlight.
     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/911945817119969281

@iCyclone check this out: [see link at the Twitter link below]
https://twitter.com/aletweetsnews/status/911815381811113989
GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 24, 2017, 04:48:13 PM
Remember that time when we had a ton of named storms, and no ACE? Oh how things change.
2017 Atlantic YTD ACE 3rd behind 2004 and 1933
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/911961175935655936
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 24, 2017, 05:12:21 PM
Article and video with dozens of clips of Caribbean storm aftermath.

Puerto Rico's weather forecasters fight worry and fatigue to stay focused
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/09/21/us/inside-puerto-rico-nws-office-trnd/index.html (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/09/21/us/inside-puerto-rico-nws-office-trnd/index.html)


Edit:  More on Caribbean:
Hurricane Maria: Puerto Rico officials describe 'apocalyptic' conditions
http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/24/americas/hurricane-maria-puerto-rico-aftermath/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/24/americas/hurricane-maria-puerto-rico-aftermath/index.html)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 24, 2017, 05:15:36 PM
NHC Atlantic Ops: Hurricane #Lee Advisory 26: Tiny Lee a Little Stronger.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/ (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/)
      https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/911965962840231937 (https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/911965962840231937)


By the way, Lee formed earlier this month, weakened, died, and then regenerated a few days ago. Therefore Zombie Hurricane
https://twitter.com/TerpWeather/status/911960114021756928 (https://twitter.com/TerpWeather/status/911960114021756928)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 25, 2017, 03:33:13 PM
This article is U.S.-centric, but offers a glimpse into how fruit, nut and vegetable supplies will soon be affected by Hurricane Irma's damage in Florida.

https://weloveweather.tv/price-favorite-drink-expect-stores-irma/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 25, 2017, 03:39:22 PM
Sunday morning shows spent less than 60 sec on Puerto Rico, one of the worst humanitarian emergencies in US history:
     https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/912064454094925826 (https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/912064454094925826)

Sunday political talk shows barely cover Hurricane Maria’s devastation of Puerto Rico
The entire island is without power, a dam is in danger of bursting, and Sunday political talk shows talked about it for less than a minute
https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2017/09/24/sunday-political-talk-shows-barely-cover-hurricane-maria-s-devastation-puerto-rico/218020 (https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2017/09/24/sunday-political-talk-shows-barely-cover-hurricane-maria-s-devastation-puerto-rico/218020)


Millions in Puerto Rico lack electricity, clean water; 10,000s lost homes... and there's now a record heat wave.
    https://twitter.com/AlexSteffen/status/912055517261963264 (https://twitter.com/AlexSteffen/status/912055517261963264)
NWS San Juan: San Juan has tied the Max. Temp record of 94 deg F (2004)!
¡San Juan ha igualado el récord de Temperatura Máx. de 94 grados F (2004)!
#prwx
https://twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/911990277757440001 (https://twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/911990277757440001)


What parts of San Juan are like today, five days after #HurricaneMaria pummeled into Puerto Rico. No gas. No electricity. Water everywhere.
https://twitter.com/ASE/status/912047336418938881 (https://twitter.com/ASE/status/912047336418938881)
Brief video at the link.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Alexander555 on September 25, 2017, 07:03:58 PM
Almost hurricane strength. That's for thursday. And a few days later the leftovers from Lee and Maria show up at the same place. On ventusky he moves north, and windy puts him much further east, over the UK.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: johnm33 on September 25, 2017, 10:25:21 PM
Sun/natural disaster connection from EU, storms earthquakes and their connection to sunspot activity.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msg7XO5YQFI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msg7XO5YQFI)
I've got a couple of others [older] saved somewhere, if anyones interested.
 Added, I had to take another look myself so, without comment  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QiM_gLRIuGc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QiM_gLRIuGc)
on this one go to 16:30 to see if your interested https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAmtNt8qii8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAmtNt8qii8)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 26, 2017, 03:39:47 PM
Trump criticizes Puerto Rico for having weak infrastructure and massive debt, w.r.t. recovery from hurricanes:

Title: "Trump's tweets about NFL, Puerto Rico debt draw ire as island crippled by Hurricane Maria"

http://abcnews.go.com/US/trumps-tweets-nfl-puerto-rico-debt-draw-ire/story?id=50096313 (http://abcnews.go.com/US/trumps-tweets-nfl-puerto-rico-debt-draw-ire/story?id=50096313)

Extract: "In his first tweets since the island was ravaged by Hurricane Maria last week, Trump said Puerto Rico’s "broken infrastructure & massive debt" have left it in worse straits than mainland states."
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 26, 2017, 04:31:28 PM
Trump follows with another tweet blaming Puerto Rico for lacking foresight and locating their island nation in the Carribbean.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: ritter on September 26, 2017, 06:32:50 PM
Trump follows with another tweet blaming Puerto Rico for lacking foresight and locating their island nation in the Carribbean.
;D

FDT
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Paddy on September 26, 2017, 07:01:12 PM
This may be a bit late, but it looks like Hurricanes Irma and Harvey destroyed a million vehicles in Florida and Texas: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/amp.timeinc.net/fortune/2017/09/20/hurricane-irma-harvey-damaged-cars/%3fsource=dam (https://www.google.co.uk/amp/amp.timeinc.net/fortune/2017/09/20/hurricane-irma-harvey-damaged-cars/%3fsource=dam)
Plus I don't know how many hundreds of thousands more have been destroyed across the Caribbean by Maria and Irma.

One of the responses to this has been that people have been donating bicycles to people left without any means of transport. including 800 donated new by manufacturers Giant and Trek (400 each) and hundreds more out of 5000 left behind at burning man: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-41312810 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-41312810)
https://www.bicycling.com/culture/donated-bikes-for-hurricane-harvey-victims (https://www.bicycling.com/culture/donated-bikes-for-hurricane-harvey-victims)

(I posted a little about this already on the bicycles thread, but I thought you might be interested here as well).
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 26, 2017, 08:54:45 PM
First and second images below:
New Orleans in 2005. Puerto Rico today.
https://twitter.com/m_tisserand/status/912456380057030656

BREAKING US military says some 1.5 million people (44% of the 3.4m population) are without drinking water on hurricane-stricken Puerto Rico.
https://twitter.com/bbcjamescook/status/912747165545488386

BREAKING US military says only 11 of 69 hospitals on Puerto Rico "have fuel or power".
https://twitter.com/bbcjamescook/status/912748669186719744

BREAKING 80% of the electricity transmission system on Puerto Rico and 100% of the distribution system is damaged, says the US military.
https://twitter.com/bbcjamescook/status/912748036937281536

Latest on Puerto Rico from the US military.
https://twitter.com/bbcjamescook/status/912748997806190592
Third image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Paddy on September 26, 2017, 09:20:43 PM
Some more pictures here: https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/gallery/2017/sep/26/puerto-rico-after-hurricane-maria-in-pictures (https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/gallery/2017/sep/26/puerto-rico-after-hurricane-maria-in-pictures)

I find https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/gallery/2017/sep/26/puerto-rico-after-hurricane-maria-in-pictures#img-6 (https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/gallery/2017/sep/26/puerto-rico-after-hurricane-maria-in-pictures#img-6) particularly telling, as it shows the current state of the electricity grid. (Sorry for not succeeding in posting the image directly with my phone).
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 26, 2017, 09:34:49 PM
Amazing the impact of this season, surely a record damage year if not in certain meteorological factors.
In both material and human cost.
It would seem appropriate for authorities everywhere to start thinking in better food/water/shelter emergency supplies and capabilities, as that is their primary task anyway.
Can't hurt to have a few hundred thousand liters of water and meals sheltered rather than waiting for planes to land on destroyed runways etc.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: A-Team on September 26, 2017, 10:09:13 PM
The Army Corps of Engineers -- the US agency in charge of mainland dam operations -- inspected the Guajataca dam and found the report of a crack was a total crock.

I could have saved them a trip. Overflight photos showed the shallow reservoir behind the puny 35 m wide dam never posed a plausible risk downstream though river flood waters did. Some rock fill did wash out at the bottom of the spillway but fixing that is utterly insignificant relative to their massive, massive overall infrastructure damage.

It's astonishing to google Guajataca Represa and "learn" it has already collapsed according to numerous unretracted US mainland press accounts. Faux disasters are just click-bait; let's not go there on these forums.

USACE assessed the condition of the Guajataca Dam (earlier reported ‘cracked’ and in danger of imminent failure); found it intact but in need of reinforcement to ensure stability. USACE engineers are consulting with the owner on risk mitigation.
"People are in the shelters of the Francisco Mendoza School, Gloria González and the Integral Youth Center," Morales Vega said. "There is no break in the dam.

"It is not going to cover us completely as they are saying, but since nothing is impossible, we are mobilizing," he added.

Carlos Román, the special assistant to the executive director of the Center for Emergency Management in Quebradillas, also told El Vocero that alerts for the towns of Isabela and Quebradillas were overblown.

Other curious factoids:

Puerto Rico imports 85% of its food despite excellent soils, plentiful rainfall and favorable growing climate.

Puerto Rico has more US citizens than the five smallest mainland states combined. By that it should have 2 Senators and 6 Representatives in Congress but has none. However Congress may take up a relief bill as soon as the 2nd week in Oct. I'll predict that 95% of any infrastructure money appropriated goes to US mainland contractors, with PR just supplying day laborers. There'll be punitive debt repayment conditions on aid to make hedge funds and bank lenders whole.

46    South Dakota   853,175
47    North Dakota   739,482
48    Alaska   737,732
49    Vermont   626,011
50    Wyoming   584,153
"
"      3,540,553
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: CalamityCountdown on September 26, 2017, 10:55:10 PM
The flooding was so severe in so many places that the hit to Savannah GA has barely gotten a mention. But the water in my mother's garage got high enough to "total" her car. A side effect of the 1 million totaled vehicles is that rental car rates in some affected areas are sky high (at least based on the rates in Savannah). I was stunned at the rental car rates. But sort of guessing that if I taxi or Uber to a car dealership, it won't exactly strengthen my negotiating position.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Paddy on September 26, 2017, 11:26:22 PM
Good article here on how to help Puerto Rico, including listings of active charities in need of donations, and further links to lists of material donations so far requested: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/can-help-hurricane-victims-puerto-rico/ (http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/can-help-hurricane-victims-puerto-rico/)

EDIT: @CalamityCountdown,
Hope you get something sorted out for your mother. Beware of flood-damaged cars on the secondhand marker though.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 27, 2017, 03:35:18 AM
USNS Comfort, a huge floating hospital, is on its way to Puerto Rico.
This is great news -- downside is it will take a week to get there.
   https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/912784517794017280

JUST IN: USNS Comfort hospital ship is being dispatched to Puerto Rico disaster, FEMA Admin. Long says at the White House.
https://twitter.com/NBCNightlyNews/status/912764473827581955

Well, I guess it is preparing to leave.  Marine Traffic still shows the ship docked in Norfolk.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 27, 2017, 09:09:41 PM
ECMWF and GEFS are generating [Tropical Cyclone] tracks in Caribbean and Gulf.  Here are regional TC probabilities for the next 15 days
https://twitter.com/cfanclimate/status/913115880409546752 (https://twitter.com/cfanclimate/status/913115880409546752)

We're tracking Hurricanes Maria & Lee and a new disturbance near Cuba that will impact Florida.
http://www.weatherboy.com/hurricane-action-atlantic/ (http://www.weatherboy.com/hurricane-action-atlantic/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 28, 2017, 02:24:53 AM
Earlier today:

Current heat index in Puerto Rico is an even 100°F -- the 20th consecutive day of above normal temperatures.
1.5M people there have no water
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/913141852332810241
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 28, 2017, 12:47:41 PM
Texas has over $10 billion in a "rainy day fund" -- but refuses to give any of it to Houston to help the city recover from Hurricane Harvey.  The reason?  Pure politics:  the state is red, but the big cities are blue.

Even Hurricane Harvey Can’t Temper GOP Hostility Toward Texas’ Big Cities
https://www.texasobserver.org/hurricane-harvey-sylvester-turner-greg-abbott/amp/ (https://www.texasobserver.org/hurricane-harvey-sylvester-turner-greg-abbott/amp/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Daniel B. on September 28, 2017, 02:55:36 PM
Earlier today:

Current heat index in Puerto Rico is an even 100°F -- the 20th consecutive day of above normal temperatures.
1.5M people there have no water
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/913141852332810241

That does not appear to be unusual.  The average high this time of year is 88F, such that 84 in the afternoon is cooler than normal. 
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 28, 2017, 03:51:20 PM
The pentagon has assigned a one-star Army general as "point person" for Maria relief efforts.

The Pentagon’s effort to date remains smaller than relief operations marshaled after other major natural disasters, including Katrina in 2005 and the 2013 typhoon that devastated the Philippines. In those cases, the military established a joint task force led by a three-star general. Critics of the response to Maria have called for the Pentagon to do so in Puerto Rico, too.

Trump administration rushes military assets to Puerto Rico amid growing crisis
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/trump-administration-surges-military-assets-to-puerto-rico-amid-growing-crisis/2017/09/27/43832750-a39e-11e7-8cfe-d5b912fabc99_story.html?utm_term=.d303a5ab1d7f (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/trump-administration-surges-military-assets-to-puerto-rico-amid-growing-crisis/2017/09/27/43832750-a39e-11e7-8cfe-d5b912fabc99_story.html?utm_term=.d303a5ab1d7f)


At last, this morning the White House signed a waiver of the Jones Act, lifting shipping restrictions -- not on its own initiative, but "as requested by the Governor of Puerto Rico."  And it will only be in effect for 10 days!

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/28/politics/puerto-rico-governor-white-house-jones-act-waiver/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/28/politics/puerto-rico-governor-white-house-jones-act-waiver/index.html)



Pentagon says there are currently about a combined 5,000 active-duty troops and National Guardsmen involved in Puerto Rico.

For context: 22,000 troops deployed to Haiti after the 2010 earthquake
24,000 deployed to Japan after the 2011 tsunami
And PR is in the USA.
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/913198744107175936 (https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/913198744107175936)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 28, 2017, 07:47:57 PM
Trump: 'A Lot Of Shippers' Don't Want Me To Waive The Jones Act To Help Puerto Rico
It appears he's considering an industry's profits over aid to 3.5 million Americans facing a humanitarian crisis.
WASHINGTON ― President Donald Trump said Wednesday that he’s considering waiving the Jones Act for Puerto Rico ― an arguably outdated law that imposes exorbitant shipping costs on the island ― but tempered his support for it because he’s getting pushback from the shipping industry.

“We’re thinking about that,” he said at a White House press event. “But we have a lot of shippers and … a lot of people who work in the shipping industry that don’t want the Jones Act lifted. And we have a lot of ships out there right now.”

The 1920 law requires that all goods shipped between U.S. ports be carried by American-owned and operated ships, which are more expensive vessels than others in the global marketplace. That means Puerto Rico has to pay double the costs for goods from the U.S. mainland compared with neighboring islands ― and that U.S. vessels are making bank. The law costs Puerto Rico hundreds of millions of dollars every year, and now, in the midst of a humanitarian crisis, the costs to import food, fuel and other supplies will spike amid the island’s economic devastation.

Trump’s comments are a galling admission that he’s weighing an industry’s profits against the needs of 3.5 million Americans facing “apocalyptic” conditions in Puerto Rico. Most people there haven’t had water, power or cell service since Hurricane Maria decimated the island last week. Roads are washed away or covered in debris. Many Americans still haven’t heard from loved ones after a week, and at least 13 people have died.

Adding to the situation, it was just two weeks earlier that Hurricane Irma hit the island and caused up to $1 billion in damages.

The president’s comments suggest shipping professionals are telling him they’d rather keep their financial advantage over Puerto Rico in the midst of a life-threatening situation than cede money they arguably shouldn’t be getting in the first place. ...
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_59cc281ee4b05063fe0ef7ec (http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_59cc281ee4b05063fe0ef7ec)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 28, 2017, 10:31:11 PM
Calculating insured losses for the three recent hurricanes.

RMS Estimates Hurricane Harvey Insured Losses from Wind, Storm Surge and Inland Flood Damage will be Between USD $25 and $35 Billion - Risk Management Solutions
https://www.rms.com/newsroom/press-releases/press-detail/2017-09-09/rms-estimates-hurricane-harvey-insured-losses-from-wind-storm-surge-and-inland-flood-damage-will-be-between-usd-25-and-35-billion (https://www.rms.com/newsroom/press-releases/press-detail/2017-09-09/rms-estimates-hurricane-harvey-insured-losses-from-wind-storm-surge-and-inland-flood-damage-will-be-between-usd-25-and-35-billion)

Hurricane Harvey insured loss could be as high as $40 billion (inc NFIP), warns Morgan Stanley - Reinsurance News
https://www.reinsurancene.ws/hurricane-harvey-insured-loss-high-40-billion-inc-nfip-warns-morgan-stanley/ (https://www.reinsurancene.ws/hurricane-harvey-insured-loss-high-40-billion-inc-nfip-warns-morgan-stanley/)

RMS Estimates Harvey Re/insurance Loss At Max $40 Billion (Including NFIP) | Seeking Alpha
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4105925-rms-estimates-harvey-re-insurance-loss-max-40-billion-including-nfip (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4105925-rms-estimates-harvey-re-insurance-loss-max-40-billion-including-nfip)


RMS Estimates Hurricane Irma Insured Losses from Wind, Storm Surge and Inland Flood Damage will be Between USD $35 and $55 Billion - Risk Management Solutions
https://www.rms.com/newsroom/press-releases/press-detail/2017-09-20/rms-estimates-hurricane-irma-insured-losses-from-wind-storm-surge-and-inland-flood-damage-will-be-between-usd-35-and-55-billion (https://www.rms.com/newsroom/press-releases/press-detail/2017-09-20/rms-estimates-hurricane-irma-insured-losses-from-wind-storm-surge-and-inland-flood-damage-will-be-between-usd-35-and-55-billion)


Insured Losses From Hurricane Maria Total $15-30 Bln-RMS
LONDON (Reuters) - Risk modelling firm RMS said on Thursday that it estimated insured losses from Hurricane Maria of $15-30 billion.

The estimate relates to wind damage, storm surge and inland flooding from the hurricane, with Puerto Rico and Dominica suffering the most destruction, RMS said in a statement.

Rival modelling firm AIR Worldwide earlier this week estimated insured losses for Maria, which hit the Caribbean last week, of $40-$85 billion.
https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2017-09-28/insured-losses-from-hurricane-maria-total-15-30-bln-rms (https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2017-09-28/insured-losses-from-hurricane-maria-total-15-30-bln-rms)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 28, 2017, 10:38:23 PM
Maria turns 2017 cat losses into a capital event for some reinsurers: Fitch
With every major catastrophe loss event it’s common to hear discussion of whether it will be a hit to reinsurer earnings, or to their capital. 2017 was running as a definite earnings impact to the majority of reinsurers, but the addition of a high loss estimate for hurricane Maria’s Caribbean impact has moved Fitch’s opinion and it now warns of the potential for rating actions.

“Given the magnitude of the Maria-estimated losses, we now believe that 2017 catastrophe losses will constitute a capital event for a number of (re)insurance companies, as opposed to just an earnings event,” Fitch Ratings explained yesterday.

Excess capital in the reinsurance sector will help to limit impact to solvency for most, but Fitch is warning that there could be some reinsurers that find themselves overexposed to the aggregation of 2017 major losses. ...
http://www.artemis.bm/blog/2017/09/27/maria-turns-2017-cat-losses-into-a-capital-event-for-some-reinsurers-fitch/ (http://www.artemis.bm/blog/2017/09/27/maria-turns-2017-cat-losses-into-a-capital-event-for-some-reinsurers-fitch/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: logicmanPatrick on September 29, 2017, 01:03:57 AM
While Puerto Ricans suffer, DT prattles on about 'taking a knee'.  (As an aside, 'to take a knee' is an ancient tradition showing much greater respect than to remain standing.)

What every American needs to know about Puerto Rico’s hurricane disaster (https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/9/26/16365994/hurricane-maria-2017-puerto-rico-san-juan-humanitarian-disaster-electricty-fuel-flights-facts)

Puerto Ricans have been citizens of the United States since 1917 ...

The island does not get electoral votes in general presidential elections. It also does not have voting representatives in Congress.

The Jones Act (https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/27/16373484/jones-act-puerto-rico)

... getting goods from the US mainland to Puerto Rico is much more expensive than sending them to Texas or even to other Caribbean islands as a result of a century-old man-made disaster that’s been crippling the island’s economy for a long time.

Meet the Jones Act, an obscure 1920 regulation that requires that goods shipped from one American port to another be transported on a ship that is American-built, American-owned, and crewed by US citizens or permanent residents.

I used to believe that the USA held in highest esteem this notion: No taxation without representation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_taxation_without_representation).



(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5b/DrakeKnightedTavistockMonument.jpg/640px-DrakeKnightedTavistockMonument.jpg)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 29, 2017, 07:58:29 PM
Eric Holthaus:  I've been calling, texting, & DMing with Puerto Ricans on the island and around the country.
Here are their stories:
https://grist.org/article/puerto-ricans-are-living-climate-change-right-now-heres-how-they-describe-it/

Yday, we published stories from P.R., 1wk after Maria.
Here's some of what was cut. Fair warning, it's heartbreaking
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/913819223461367808
Twitter thread at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 29, 2017, 09:58:08 PM
YES!!!

Tesla is sending hundreds of battery packs to power outage-ridden Puerto Rico
Now we learn that Tesla has been quietly shipping Powerwalls to Puerto Rico ever since the hurricane cleared. Bloomberg first reported yesterday and Tesla later confirmed to Electrek.

They have now sent ‘hundreds’ of battery packs to be paired with solar installations in the ravaged region in order to help restore power faster to a certain degree. ...
https://electrek.co/2017/09/29/tesla-powerwall-battery-packs-to-power-outage-ridden-puerto-rico/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on September 29, 2017, 10:19:45 PM
YES!!!

Tesla is sending hundreds of battery packs to power outage-ridden Puerto Rico

So Trump will not have to tell FEMA to send those shipments of coal after all ?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: wili on September 29, 2017, 11:47:58 PM
...Why Trump’s Response to Maria’s Monumental Strike on Puerto Rico is, Thus Far, Vastly Inadequate

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/09/29/reflections-of-opal-and-why-trumps-response-to-marias-monumental-strike-on-puerto-rico-is-thus-far-vastly-inadequate/#comments

As a veteran of the U.S. Army National Guard, I’ve responded to my fair share of natural disasters. And having responded to some of the costliest and most devastating storms to strike the U.S. in the 90s, I know what it means when damage estimates, as they do now with Maria, hit a range of 30-95 billion dollars. When you get reports that evacuees are fleeing Puerto Rico with many saying they will never return.

It means total devastation of infrastructure requiring an equally unprecedented level of response to effectively manage a disaster of a class that we are not presently used to dealing with. And without an effective response, you get exactly what we are seeing now — refugees fleeing what has become, through neglect, a sacrifice zone.

The present response to Maria by the Trump Administration is comparable to the level of response to Hurricane Opal. Opal was a devastating storm in its own right. But the damage inflicted by Opal was more than an order of magnitude less than the damage inflicted by Maria. Our response, therefore, must be equal to the level of harm and dislocation inflicted by the disaster.

5,000 troops and FEMA responders for Maria is, therefore, about 45,000 short of the mark.


Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 30, 2017, 01:58:02 PM
Interview with a U.S. Congress Representative who has family in Puerto Rico.

"This made me cry. I can't say much more. #PuertoRico"
http://www.snappytv.com/tc/5917132 (http://www.snappytv.com/tc/5917132)

https://twitter.com/TheRickyDavila/status/913974616015728640 (https://twitter.com/TheRickyDavila/status/913974616015728640)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 30, 2017, 01:59:24 PM
Houston

An Absent EPA Climate Report, And A Tale Of Two Flooded Superfund Sites
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/09/29/553696314/an-absent-epa-climate-report-and-a-tale-of-two-flooded-superfund-sites (http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/09/29/553696314/an-absent-epa-climate-report-and-a-tale-of-two-flooded-superfund-sites)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: gerontocrat on September 30, 2017, 02:15:07 PM
Houston

An Absent EPA Climate Report, And A Tale Of Two Flooded Superfund Sites
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/09/29/553696314/an-absent-epa-climate-report-and-a-tale-of-two-flooded-superfund-sites (http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/09/29/553696314/an-absent-epa-climate-report-and-a-tale-of-two-flooded-superfund-sites)
A posting for "Places Becoming Less Liveable" ?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 30, 2017, 03:08:54 PM
Houston

An Absent EPA Climate Report, And A Tale Of Two Flooded Superfund Sites
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/09/29/553696314/an-absent-epa-climate-report-and-a-tale-of-two-flooded-superfund-sites (http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/09/29/553696314/an-absent-epa-climate-report-and-a-tale-of-two-flooded-superfund-sites)
A posting for "Places Becoming Less Liveable" ?

By definition, all Superfund sites are "less liveable." :o  But I agree that climate change weather extremes only exacerbate that risk!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 30, 2017, 03:12:46 PM
More (delayed) aid on the way!

'Not enough' troops, equipment in Puerto Rico, says general in charge of relief
The Defense Department has not sent enough troops and vehicles to hurricane-ravaged Puerto Rico but will soon send more, according to the three-star general newly in charge of coordinating the military response.

Army Lt. Gen. Jeff Buchanan said Friday morning that the Pentagon has 10,000 people helping with the response after Hurricanes Irma and Maria ripped through Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands earlier this month.

"We're certainly bringing in more [troops]," Buchanan said on CNN's "New Day."

"For example, on the military side, we're bringing in both Air Force, Navy, and Army medical capabilities in addition to aircraft, more helicopters. ... [But] it's not enough, and we're bringing more in." ...
http://thehill.com/policy/defense/353137-not-enough-troops-equipment-in-puerto-rico-says-general-in-charge-of-relief (http://thehill.com/policy/defense/353137-not-enough-troops-equipment-in-puerto-rico-says-general-in-charge-of-relief)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 01, 2017, 02:54:25 AM
US Army says with more rain falling, engineers are trying to stabilize the Guajataca Dam spillway on Puerto Rico which "continues to erode".
https://twitter.com/BBCJamesCook/status/914201939969155072
More info at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 01, 2017, 03:04:13 AM
Houston

Developers say more analysis needed before boosting flood regulation
Developers agree to further study on boosting regulations
...
Of the roughly 33,000 homes that flooded in unincorporated Harris County, two thirds were outside the 100-year floodplain, County Engineer John Blount said Friday. About 1,600 homes that meet the county's existing floodplain and elevation regulations - most recently updated in 2009 - flooded during Harvey.

The county requires that homes in the 100-year floodplain be built at least 18 inches above the base flood level.

Developers said Friday that, in general, few homes or developments are built in existing floodplains.

Blount said about 2,000 homes have been built in the 100-year floodplain during the last seven years. He could not provide numbers of how many homes or developments are in the 500-year floodplain, which the county generally does not monitor. ...
http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/houston/amp/Developers-say-more-analysis-needed-before-12242189.php (http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/houston/amp/Developers-say-more-analysis-needed-before-12242189.php)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 01, 2017, 03:14:48 AM
Puerto Rico

Lost weekend: How Trump’s time at his golf club hurt the response to Maria
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/politics/lost-weekend-how-trumps-time-at-his-golf-club-hurt-the-response-to-maria/2017/09/29/ce92ed0a-a522-11e7-8c37-e1d99ad6aa22_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/politics/lost-weekend-how-trumps-time-at-his-golf-club-hurt-the-response-to-maria/2017/09/29/ce92ed0a-a522-11e7-8c37-e1d99ad6aa22_story.html)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2017
Post by: logicmanPatrick on October 01, 2017, 04:07:20 AM
US Army says with more rain falling, engineers are trying to stabilize the Guajataca Dam spillway on Puerto Rico which "continues to erode".
https://twitter.com/BBCJamesCook/status/914201939969155072
More info at the link.

From NHC

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf