Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Consequences => Topic started by: wili on January 12, 2018, 07:03:15 AM

Title: 2018 Droughts
Post by: wili on January 12, 2018, 07:03:15 AM
The World’s First Major City to Run Out of Water May Have Just Over Three Months Left
Quote
    It’s the height of summer in Cape Town, and the southwesternmost region of South Africa is gripped by a catastrophic water shortage. Unless the city adopts widespread rationing, the government says, the taps “will be turned off” on April 22, 2018, because there will be no more water to deliver.

        ... “It’s not an impending crisis—we’re deep, deep, deep in crisis.”

https://qz.com/1176981/the-worlds-first-major-city-to-run-out-of-water-may-have-just-over-three-months-left/



Cape Town, South Africa, Is Running Out of Water

Cape Town, home to more than 4 million, is in the midst of the worst drought to hit South Africa in more than 100 years.

City officials say they will “turn off the tap” in April when dam levels are expected to reach 13.5 percent of capacity.

The situation is dire. Dams supplying the city with usable water dropped this week to 29.7 percent, the city of Cape Town posted to Facebook on Wednesday. Only 19.7 percent of the water is usable. Several times a day, the city encourages residents via social media to conserve water.

Mayor De Lille says she hopes it won’t come down to Day Zero, but the city is already planning for that eventuality. Should the city be forced to turn off the taps, 200 water stations guarded by police and the military will be set up to ration out roughly 6.6 gallons (25 liters) of water per day per resident.

Cape Town isn’t the only city dealing with water issues in a warming world.

The World Wildlife Fund estimates two-thirds of the world may face water shortages by 2025 as droughts become more frequent because of global warming.

https://weather.com/science/environment/news/2018-01-10-cape-town-south-africa-water-shortage-day-zero

thnx to vox at poforums for these
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: magnamentis on January 12, 2018, 02:57:30 PM
perhaps i simply lack insight but each of such news triggers the same thought:

a) they have wind to produce energy

b) they have plenty of sunshine to produce energy

c) they have plenty of ocean water to make drinkable by osmosis (energy consuming i know)

so why do such regions like CT or Andalucia or other regions with little water but being oceanside
and blessed with either wind, sun or both produce more drinking water from the ocean by through above mentioned method. it exists, it's done but by far not sufficiently to solve their shortages.

perhaps someone who is more savvy in that field of work/sciences can enlighten me so that i can either push more or forget the idea because of (no clue why)
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: oren on January 12, 2018, 03:21:34 PM
perhaps i simply lack insight but each of such news triggers the same thought:

a) they have wind to produce energy

b) they have plenty of sunshine to produce energy

c) they have plenty of ocean water to make drinkable by osmosis (energy consuming i know)

so why do such regions like CT or Andalucia or other regions with little water but being oceanside
and blessed with either wind, sun or both produce more drinking water from the ocean by through above mentioned method. it exists, it's done but by far not sufficiently to solve their shortages.

perhaps someone who is more savvy in that field of work/sciences can enlighten me so that i can either push more or forget the idea because of (no clue why)
Israel would have been deep in the same problem as Capetown by now had the country not built several desalination plants under a strategic program (a surprise in a country where most political thinking is very short term). Unfortunately this is not done with renewable energy but with mostly fossil-based electricity. Cost of home-use water has gone up considerably, but I guess it's better than having no water.
Note: Israel is also the world leader in using recycled water for agriculture.

Here's some info from 2015:
Quote
Desalination industry
In 1999, the Israeli government initiated a long-term seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination program. Israel Desalination Enterprises, or IDE Technologies, built SWRO plants in Ashkelon in 2005, Hadera in 2009, and Sorek in 2013. Built for the Israeli government, each plant produces clean water from the sea at low cost. Today, the country has a total of five large-scale SWRO plants, including the Palmachim plant (GES) and the Ashdod (Mekorot) plant (which is currently undergoing commissioning).

The Sorek plant, located about 10 miles south of Tel Aviv, is the largest and most advanced SWRO plant in the world. It has the capacity to product 627,000 m3 of water daily, making desalinated seawater a mainstay of the country’s water supply. The Sorek plant is the first desalination plant to use pressure vessels that are 16 in. in diameter rather than 8 in. This reduces costs by requiring less piping and other hardware; costs are also minimized through the use of highly efficient pumps.

It is estimated that half of the country’s water will be supplied by desalination by 2016.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: gerontocrat on January 12, 2018, 03:51:11 PM
perhaps i simply lack insight but each of such news triggers the same thought:

a) they have wind to produce energy

b) they have plenty of sunshine to produce energy

c) they have plenty of ocean water to make drinkable by osmosis (energy consuming i know)

so why do such regions like CT or Andalucia or other regions with little water but being oceanside
and blessed with either wind, sun or both produce more drinking water from the ocean by through above mentioned method. it exists, it's done but by far not sufficiently to solve their shortages.

perhaps someone who is more savvy in that field of work/sciences can enlighten me so that i can either push more or forget the idea because of (no clue why)

I believe Spain and other places have expanded desalination plants for mainly for coastal urban regions. But - people still have to eat, and Spain has a huge agricultural export industry.

Agriculture (as a rule of thumb) consumes 4 to 5 times the water used for urban purposes.

Water is heavy - damn heavy - shifting it away from the coast uphill is expensive. In the north of Jordan, a lot of the water comes from the Jordan Valley. The average lift was (in 2004) about 750 metres -  say 2500 feet. As a result electricity for the pumps (though heavily subsidised) comprised more than 50% of operating costs.

In California, even with the most sophisticated irrigation systems (miserly delivered to each plant individually (and often originally developed in Israel)), as the 2012-2016 drought progressed farmers had to abandon crops).

And the last problem is inertia - even in Jordan it was a tough job to get anyone to take water loss reduction seriously (often linked to places with serious water shortages) and to provide the capital to redesign water systems. And getting people to change their crop types? Forget it.

There are places where it works, and places where it will not  or if it does work, at vast energy requirements and cost. To find out if desalination + renewable energy would work requires proper  field work in several disciplines.

However, sometimes progress is made - so do not give up.


ps: Water wars is up there with climate change in the US defence departments's list of security threats (even if Trump and his acolytes pretend it is not there).
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: magnamentis on January 12, 2018, 05:27:26 PM
thanks for the useful replies, in general and considering the places with sufficient renewable energy potential to which places like SA, southern spain, israel as well as california belong, it obviously works the way i think but takes a certain effort based on either political will and/or economic benefits which IMO is mostly torpedoed through lobbyism in favour of coal and other dirty energy and therefore feasibility lacks due to not being compatible with subsidized sources.

resume: same story across the board, all that's needed is there but is not profitable or self-supporting due to politically forced use of dirty energy that in fact would be obsolete once
the irresponsible greedy gangsters who call themselves our leaders would do what they were
elect for :-(

EDIT: BTW i simply don't get why to do the right things have to be profitable?

IMO the opposite is the case, it's like real love, who really loves is ready to loose for the best of the loved ones. (i know this is simply put while to see loved ones happy is the greatest possible profit after being happy ourselves hence not a loss at all, perhaps just not the way we want thngs to be which is how we are back to ego-control )
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: ritter on January 12, 2018, 10:28:26 PM
so why do such regions like CT or Andalucia or other regions with little water but being oceanside
and blessed with either wind, sun or both produce more drinking water from the ocean by through above mentioned method. it exists, it's done but by far not sufficiently to solve their shortages.

Short answer, money. Desalinization costs a lot of money, not just for the energy to desalinate and pump the water to where it's needed but to construct and operate the plant. To provide a city with water requires a huge investment. California has a few desal plants but they are generally only used in the most dire situations and then are only supplemental. There is also the issue of what to do with the brine that is left over. It is not particularly beneficial to the marine environment to "dump it back where it came from."  ;)
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Archimid on January 12, 2018, 10:54:44 PM
Hopefully  one day that brine can be separated into usefull components and sold, making the economics of desal competitive.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: oren on January 12, 2018, 11:49:10 PM
In Israel there was talk for years of sending the brine to the Dead Sea via an artificial canal, helping to stabilize its deteriorating level, and even gaining some net energy via hydro thanks to its being 400m altitude below sea level. But this talk has not come to fruition yet.
OTOH, back to the thread's topic: the minister for agriculture recently arranged a mass prayer at the Western Wall in Jerusalem to break the multi-year drought. I'm not holding my breath for results.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 13, 2018, 02:53:56 PM
Hopefully  one day that brine can be separated into usefull components and sold, making the economics of desal competitive.

Lithium...?

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/538036/quest-to-mine-seawater-for-lithium-advances/

https://gigaom.com/2010/03/10/will-seawater-stave-off-a-lithium-squeeze/
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: gerontocrat on January 13, 2018, 03:08:57 PM
In Israel there was talk for years of sending the brine to the Dead Sea via an artificial canal, helping to stabilize its deteriorating level, and even gaining some net energy via hydro thanks to its being 400m altitude below sea level. But this talk has not come to fruition yet.
OTOH, back to the thread's topic: the minister for agriculture recently arranged a mass prayer at the Western Wall in Jerusalem to break the multi-year drought. I'm not holding my breath for results.
The Dead Sea sinks by about 1 metre per annum - and is now really two seas. The project was supposed to be a joint Jordan / Israel deal, it was a hot topic back in 2004, and even then the idea had been around for decades.

Water scarcity was a real problem back then - Israel had already put a dozer through UN resolutions on water sharing. Things cannot have got better.

It's high up on the US defence department's list of security threats in the region. If drought is defined as demand greater than supply, then the region is always in drought.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 15, 2018, 09:05:53 PM
U.S.:
Snowpack Near Record Lows Spells Trouble for Western Water Supplies
Quote
Months of exceptionally warm weather and an early winter snow drought across big swaths of the West have left the snowpack at record-low levels in parts of the Central and Southern Rockies, raising concerns about water shortages and economic damage.

Drought spread across large parts of the Western United States this month, and storms that moved across the region in early January made up only a small part of the deficit. Runoff from melting snow is now projected to be less than 50 percent of average in key river basins in the central and southern Rockies.
...
With little fresh snow falling this winter and warm temperatures that make it hard to keep machine-made snow on the slopes, New Mexico's Taos Valley ski resort was able to open fewer than 20 of its 112 runs during the past weekend, and many of the region's other large resorts have faced similar conditions. Athletes training for the winter Olympics have had to fly to Canada and Europe to find good snow conditions.
...
Using the most sophisticated climate models and weather data from various ski regions, the scientists concluded that it will be too warm for snowmaking at many lower elevation resorts in the eastern half of the country within the next few decades. By 2050, the winter season will only be half as long as now, averaged across all 247 resorts in the study. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/15012018/snow-drought-ski-western-water-supply-risk-climate-change-economy
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Alexander555 on January 16, 2018, 12:25:49 PM
Day zero for Cape Town is brought forward one week to 22 april.

https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/drilling-on-cape-flats-aquifer-starts-as-cape-town-dams-dry-up-in-drought-20180111
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Alexander555 on January 16, 2018, 12:35:35 PM
https://www.news24.com/Green/News/poisonous-and-running-out-pakistans-water-crisis-20180108
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 16, 2018, 09:17:52 PM
More on (the personal side of) the Cape Town water crisis:

Cape Town Is 90 Days Away From Running Out of Water
http://time.com/5103259/cape-town-water-crisis/
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: LRC1962 on January 20, 2018, 09:21:48 AM
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-dont-we-get-our-drinking-water-from-the-ocean/
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/534996/megascale-desalination/
Should not be posting at this time (3AM) as I get really stupid.
A few few thoughts.
1) Up to now mankind could get away with for the the most part, land fresh water.
2)As pointed out, issues of energy costs building and upkeep costs,  amount of land needed for plant, pollution, where to place intake to minimize ecodamage and what to do with waste. All these things add to and create costs all on their own. The problems now are that things are becoming much more urgent and therefore the risks taken will be far greater to get water.
As for Cape Town. Remember you are talking about South Africa which because of penalties now being paid politically and economically for the decades of apartheid and the artificial economy it created plus the degradation of the majority  of its people it is not capable to respond quickly to disasters. Because it is in Africa and still has the illusion of being a forefront nation it has many difficulties that cause major problems when disaster strikes.
Before we get to caught up with casting blame for this problem Puerto Rico still has no power for over a million people in spite of being part of the richest nation in the world.
Note I do know that we are to keep away from politically charged statements, but as someone born in one of the poorest nations on earth, I get very tired of the holier then thou attitude that they are lazy and stupid. Most times they are living in situations they have absolutely no control over. How much change can you make earning less then $4000 a year?
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: TerryM on January 20, 2018, 10:28:39 AM
LRC1962


I've never known the poor to be either lazy or stupid. Lack of opportunity, no education WRT money, a lack of self confidence and plain bad luck are more often responsible for their plight.


Terry
edit - Sorry for drifting so far from the topic.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: wili on January 20, 2018, 03:09:37 PM
Scribbler on how Iranian drought is increasing political instability (shades of Syria):

https://robertscribbler.com/2018/01/20/how-climate-change-is-fueling-irans-political-instability/

Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Alexander555 on January 21, 2018, 08:56:24 PM
They consumed 618 million litres per day last week. That's more than the weeks before. If they are all building up a personal supply they will mis their target.

https://mediashaft.com/cape-town-water-supply-near-point-no-return-reservoirs-run-dry/
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: oren on January 21, 2018, 10:08:29 PM
Amazing. Now it says Day Zero is Feb.1, less than two weeks away.
Quote
Starting from Feb 1, the 50 litre/day rule will be implied for every person. Feb 1 is being called as “Day Zero”, as the residents will turn off their taps and will have to queue for water supplies at about 200 collection points in the city.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Paddy on January 24, 2018, 11:48:22 AM
More on (the personal side of) the Cape Town water crisis:

Cape Town Is 90 Days Away From Running Out of Water
http://time.com/5103259/cape-town-water-crisis/

Re Cape Town: It doesn't help that so much of the freshwater in South Africa has been contaminated by run-off from mining. And, of course, mining, industry and power generation continue to contribute significantly to water demand. If RSA could be weaned a little more off coal, it might become a little less water-stressed.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sleepy on January 24, 2018, 02:11:03 PM
Non-water savers urged to join Team Cape Town water savers as Day Zero moves forward to 12 April 2018.
http://www.capetown.gov.za/Media-and-news/Non-water%20savers%20urged%20to%20join%20Team%20Cape%20Town%20water%20savers%20as%20Day%20Zero%20moves%20forward%20to%2012%20April%202018 (http://www.capetown.gov.za/Media-and-news/Non-water%20savers%20urged%20to%20join%20Team%20Cape%20Town%20water%20savers%20as%20Day%20Zero%20moves%20forward%20to%2012%20April%202018)
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 24, 2018, 05:06:18 PM
California is having a near-record low year for snow. So is a lot of the Western U.S.
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/955839442362753024
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 24, 2018, 05:12:45 PM
Non-water savers urged to join Team Cape Town water savers as Day Zero moves forward to 12 April 2018.
http://www.capetown.gov.za/Media-and-news/Non-water%20savers%20urged%20to%20join%20Team%20Cape%20Town%20water%20savers%20as%20Day%20Zero%20moves%20forward%20to%2012%20April%202018 (http://www.capetown.gov.za/Media-and-news/Non-water%20savers%20urged%20to%20join%20Team%20Cape%20Town%20water%20savers%20as%20Day%20Zero%20moves%20forward%20to%2012%20April%202018)

As bad as this disaster is, it is heartening to see evidence that, when properly motivated, people can still come together for the common good.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sleepy on January 25, 2018, 12:56:05 PM
Non-water savers urged to join Team Cape Town water savers as Day Zero moves forward to 12 April 2018.
http://www.capetown.gov.za/Media-and-news/Non-water%20savers%20urged%20to%20join%20Team%20Cape%20Town%20water%20savers%20as%20Day%20Zero%20moves%20forward%20to%2012%20April%202018 (http://www.capetown.gov.za/Media-and-news/Non-water%20savers%20urged%20to%20join%20Team%20Cape%20Town%20water%20savers%20as%20Day%20Zero%20moves%20forward%20to%2012%20April%202018)

As bad as this disaster is, it is heartening to see evidence that, when properly motivated, people can still come together for the common good.
They have to, they knew it was going to be bad.  We have a south african blog here in Sweden who provides a lot more personal info on water saving tips (and lots of other stuff) down there, they started that blog post in October. This will probaly help (from the article above):
Quote
Our desalination, aquifer and water recycling projects aimed at providing additional water are ongoing but will not provide sufficient supply to help us avoid Day Zero this year. They will, however, help us to become more resilient in weathering our next dry season.
Also adding a link to a water viewer for Cape Town if someone's interested:
https://citymaps.capetown.gov.za/waterviewer/ (https://citymaps.capetown.gov.za/waterviewer/)

Edit; also adding a previous news article from the same place:
http://www.capetown.gov.za/Media-and-news/Day%20Zero%20now%20likely%20to%20happen%20%E2%80%93%20new%20emergency%20measures (http://www.capetown.gov.za/Media-and-news/Day%20Zero%20now%20likely%20to%20happen%20%E2%80%93%20new%20emergency%20measures)
Quote
We can no longer ask people to stop wasting water. We must force them. We have listened to the comments of thousands of residents asking for fairness. Council will on Friday be voting on a punitive tariff that will charge residents exponentially higher rates for water usage above 6 000 litres per month.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: wili on January 25, 2018, 01:17:00 PM
Scribbler has a new...scribble...on the Capetown situation.https://robertscribbler.com/2018/01/24/the-day-the-water-ran-out-climate-change-day-zero-swiftly-approaching-for-cape-town/
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sleepy on January 25, 2018, 01:33:57 PM
Thanks wili, and for starting this thread. I think that mashable article by Freedman is worth linking to by it's own, also quoting the first paragraph:
mashable.com/2018/01/24/cape-town-south-africa-will-run-out-of-water/ (http://mashable.com/2018/01/24/cape-town-south-africa-will-run-out-of-water/)
Quote
It's 2018. Donald Trump is president of the U.S., Elon Musk will soon send a sports car into space aboard a massive rocket, and Cape Town, South Africa, will run out of water in 79 days.

Edit; adding this. What can you do with 50 litres per day.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Alexander555 on January 26, 2018, 08:28:05 PM
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2018-01-17-eastern-cape-drought-rapidly-overtaking-the-cape-town-crisis/#.Wmt_UJAqOrU
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Susan Anderson on January 26, 2018, 08:49:58 PM
@Sleepy. That's a terrific post, thanks.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Alexander555 on January 28, 2018, 10:17:58 PM
If you look at Africa on the map, the area with the drought. That's mainly the Congo basin. And that's mainly tropical rainforests and wetlands. What is going on there ? Did they cut down everything?

http://eldoradocountyweather.com/climate/world-maps/world-drought-risk.html
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Alexander555 on February 05, 2018, 01:45:24 PM
If you look at Africa on the map, the area with the drought. That's mainly the Congo basin. And that's mainly tropical rainforests and wetlands. What is going on there ? Did they cut down everything?

http://eldoradocountyweather.com/climate/world-maps/world-drought-risk.html

Is it wrong to assume that the rainforst works like a natural airconditioning ? The forest sucks water out of the soil, large quantities every day. Most of it ends up in the air, trough the leaves. It keeps everything wet and cools it a little .Thats almost like a closed system. And the rain that comes from the outside ends up in the rivers, and transports heat out of the system. And the forest prevends the sun to shine directly on the soil. As soon the forest is gone the water circulation stops, and the sun shines on that soil for 12 hours every day (the equator) .And there is no winter, only the nights to cool it down. Normaly it will get hotter and hotter, and if you look at that size. That's going to be the biggest oven on the planet. And in the north they already have the sahara desert. Or do you think i'm wrong.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 09, 2018, 09:48:49 PM
“The current #snow situation in the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains is extremely bad. California and Colorado River basin #water availability will be far below normal this year, barring a dramatic and unlikely influx of storms.”
     https://twitter.com/PeterGleick/status/961685694174425088
     Image below.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Alexander555 on February 10, 2018, 10:01:29 AM
https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/water-restrictions-continue-in-kzn-20180209
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sleepy on February 10, 2018, 10:33:54 AM
Cape Towns water dashboard is here:
http://coct.co/water-dashboard/ (http://coct.co/water-dashboard/)
They moved day zero forward to mid-May 2018 "due to a decline in agricultural usage. But Capetonians must continue reducing consumption if we are to avoid Day Zero. There has not been any significant decline in urban usage.".
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 10, 2018, 05:03:59 PM
Cape Towns water dashboard is here:
http://coct.co/water-dashboard/ (http://coct.co/water-dashboard/)
They moved day zero forward to mid-May 2018 "due to a decline in agricultural usage. But Capetonians must continue reducing consumption if we are to avoid Day Zero. There has not been any significant decline in urban usage.".

This is a good reminder that one can’t simply draw a straight line from history to determine the end of times.  People do change their behavior, when they understand their survival is at stake, or if they can visualize a tangible reward.  (But the speed of that change is another matter.)
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Archimid on February 12, 2018, 03:44:41 PM
Hopefully  one day that brine can be separated into usefull components and sold, making the economics of desal competitive.

Lithium...?

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/538036/quest-to-mine-seawater-for-lithium-advances/

https://gigaom.com/2010/03/10/will-seawater-stave-off-a-lithium-squeeze/

New desalination membrane produces both drinking water and lithium

https://newatlas.com/metal-organic-framework-filter-water-lithium/53356/

Quote
The key to the process is metal-organic frameworks (MOFs), which boast the largest internal surface area of any known material. Unfolded, a single gram of the material could theoretically cover a football field, and it's this intricate internal structure that makes MOFs perfect for capturing, storing and releasing molecules...

Currently, reverse osmosis membranes are the most commonly-used technology for water filtration, and they work on a fairly simple principle. The membrane's pores are large enough for water molecules to pass through, but too small for most contaminants. The problem is that to work, these systems require water to be pumped through at relatively high pressure.

MOF membranes, on the other hand, can be more selective and efficient. Researchers at Monash University, the CSIRO and the University of Texas at Austin have now developed just such a membrane. The design was inspired by the "ion selectivity" of biological cell membranes, allowing the MOF material to dehydrate specific ions as they pass through. Better yet, these filters don't require water to be forced through, saving on energy use as well.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 13, 2018, 07:11:23 PM
Letter From a Bed in Cape Town
Conspiracy theories and pee etiquette in a South African drought
https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/letter-bed-cape-town
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 13, 2018, 07:28:22 PM
“It hasn’t rained (meaningfully) in California since the beginning of January. Nothing much in sight until at least early March.

Some ‘rainy season’ we’re having, sheesh ”
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/963241902115049472
Image below.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sleepy on February 14, 2018, 12:34:08 PM
Cape Towns water dashboard is here:
http://coct.co/water-dashboard/ (http://coct.co/water-dashboard/)
They moved day zero forward to mid-May 2018 "due to a decline in agricultural usage. But Capetonians must continue reducing consumption if we are to avoid Day Zero. There has not been any significant decline in urban usage.".

This is a good reminder that one can’t simply draw a straight line from history to determine the end of times.  People do change their behavior, when they understand their survival is at stake, or if they can visualize a tangible reward.  (But the speed of that change is another matter.)
Sorry, missed that comment.

I'll provide the same answer as to your comment in reply #24 above:
They have to, they knew it was going to be bad.

History tells us that the human instinct to survive is our most powerful drive, yet we still tend to think that disasters only happens to someone else.
 
If we look at the four main groups when it comes to climate change; deniers, skeptics, incrementalists and realist, only the realists will pay attention to the threats, while the other three groups are buzy visualizing tangible rewards.

Water usage reaches record low – let’s see how low we can go
http://www.capetown.gov.za/Media-and-news/Water%20usage%20reaches%20record%20low%20%E2%80%93%20let's%20see%20how%20low%20we%20can%20go (http://www.capetown.gov.za/Media-and-news/Water%20usage%20reaches%20record%20low%20%E2%80%93%20let's%20see%20how%20low%20we%20can%20go)
Quote
Day Zero, the day we may have to queue for water, has moved out to 4 June 2018 due to the continued decline in agricultural usage, and also as a result of Capetonians reducing their water usage in cooperation with the City of Cape Town’s efforts to bring down consumption.

Over the past week, consumption has been lowered to 526 million litres per day. This is the first time that the weekly average usage has remained under 550 million litres due to the City’s pressure management interventions and the efforts by our residents to use as little water as possible.

Importantly, dam levels are at only 24,9% compared to 36,1% last year and 43,3% in 2016. Though the dam levels are much lower than a year ago, we have more information and more control over the system that supplies water to the city. Our continued interactions with the National Department of Water and Sanitation have led to much improved data-sharing and analysis, allowing for more reliable modelling and dramatically improved control over dam levels.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Alexander555 on February 14, 2018, 08:07:15 PM
Groundwater provides drinking water for at least half of humanity.

https://www.news24.com/Green/News/for-global-water-crisis-climate-may-be-the-last-straw-20180213
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Alexander555 on February 14, 2018, 08:14:53 PM
https://www.thesouthafrican.com/11-cities-next-up-for-water-crisis/
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sleepy on February 19, 2018, 05:29:14 PM
Importantly, dam levels are at only 24,9% compared to 36,1% last year and 43,3% in 2016. Though the dam levels are much lower than a year ago, we have more information and more control over the system that supplies water to the city. Our continued interactions with the National Department of Water and Sanitation have led to much improved data-sharing and analysis, allowing for more reliable modelling and dramatically improved control over dam levels.

This tracker: http://water.eighty20.co.za/ (http://water.eighty20.co.za/)
States that 10% of a dam's maximum storage is considered unuseable.
Latest dam level data: 2018-02-12
If that's true, then there's only ~15% usable water left.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 19, 2018, 08:49:21 PM
Groundwater provides drinking water for at least half of humanity.

https://www.news24.com/Green/News/for-global-water-crisis-climate-may-be-the-last-straw-20180213

And almost universally, we are drawing ground water out far faster than it is being replenished. This is unsustainable.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 24, 2018, 09:12:07 PM
Is Perth really running out of water? Well, yes and no
Quote
Perth’s drinking water supplies are largely safe, thanks to early investment in the use of groundwater and in technologies such as desalination. But somewhat ironically, ... the future supply of lower-quality water for irrigation and to support ecosystems looks far less assured.
https://theconversation.com/is-perth-really-running-out-of-water-well-yes-and-no-90857
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 26, 2018, 04:42:55 PM
Current U.S. drought maps. 

“The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) is a weekly product that provides a general summary of current drought conditions. Multiple drought indicators, including various indices, outlooks, field reports, and news accounts are reviewed and synthesized. In addition, numerous experts from agencies and offices across the country are consulted. The result is the consensus assessment presented on the USDM map. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu   http://drought.unl.edu “
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 02, 2018, 05:43:15 PM
Pacific Institute:
“In the U.S., some inland water districts are considering brackish groundwater desalination, which is generally easier and less costly than seawater desal. @Interior's national assessment of brackish aquifers could help determine viability: https://water.usgs.gov/ogw/gwrp/brackishgw/ #desalination ”

https://twitter.com/PacificInstitut/status/980532875521961985
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Alexander555 on April 03, 2018, 05:21:41 PM
https://watchers.news/2018/04/03/drought-in-argentina-and-uruguay-the-most-expensive-weather-disaster-of-2018/
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 09, 2018, 08:39:45 PM
U.S.:  snow drought in the Rocky Mountains

“Today, April 9th, is the average peak date for snowpack in Colorado, meaning this is the day we usually have the highest snow of the season and it melts down from here. Today, we're 68% of average.”
     https://twitter.com/lukerunyon/status/983400261015109633
Images below.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Daniel B. on April 10, 2018, 03:17:28 PM
Yes, Colorado was south of the jet stream for most of the winter.  The majority of the storms tracked across Montana, which is experiencing near or record high snowfall totals this year.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: gerontocrat on April 12, 2018, 08:21:08 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/11/day-zero-water-crises-spain-morocco-india-and-iraq-at-risk-as-dams-shrink

Worth a read.

Quote
'Day zero' water crises: Spain, Morocco, India and Iraq at risk as reservoirs shrink
A new early warning satellite system reveals countries where shrinking reservoirs could lead to the taps completely drying up
Where to post something like this?

Places becoming less liveable ?
Climate, agriculture food?
Expansion of deserts?

We haven't got a water resources thread, even though climate change is bound to make the problems worse - too much water, not enough water.
US Department of Defence has (or had) water wars as a high risk in the US National Defence Strategy.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: TerryM on April 12, 2018, 10:21:34 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/11/day-zero-water-crises-spain-morocco-india-and-iraq-at-risk-as-dams-shrink (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/11/day-zero-water-crises-spain-morocco-india-and-iraq-at-risk-as-dams-shrink)

Worth a read.

Quote
'Day zero' water crises: Spain, Morocco, India and Iraq at risk as reservoirs shrink
A new early warning satellite system reveals countries where shrinking reservoirs could lead to the taps completely drying up
Where to post something like this?

Places becoming less liveable ?
Climate, agriculture food?
Expansion of deserts?

We haven't got a water resources thread, even though climate change is bound to make the problems worse - too much water, not enough water.
US Department of Defence has (or had) water wars as a high risk in the US National Defence Strategy.
I wonder just who they expect to be their enemy?
Terry - the Canadian
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Alexander555 on April 12, 2018, 11:02:54 PM
I wonder how this is going to work out. It takes the entire flow of the Nile for 11 months to fill the dam.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4939938/Dam-upstream-leaves-Egypt-fearing-lifeline-Nile.html
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: oren on April 13, 2018, 03:39:19 AM
I wonder how this is going to work out. It takes the entire flow of the Nile for 11 months to fill the dam.
It can take many years to fill up a dam's reservoir. While Lake Mead took about 4 years, Lake Powell took about 15. In any case, this GERD is going to be a real challenge to all countries involved.
Here is an article discussing the subject.
https://www.water.ox.ac.uk/filling-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-seeking-middle-ground-on-the-nile/ (https://www.water.ox.ac.uk/filling-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-seeking-middle-ground-on-the-nile/)
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: bluesky on April 21, 2018, 11:40:14 PM

Whither the 100th Meridian? The Once and Future Physical and Human Geography of America’s Arid–Humid Divide. Part II: The Meridian Moves East (R. Seager, Earths Interactions)

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/EI-D-17-0012.1


"The 100th meridian bisects the Great Plains of the United States and effectively divides the continent into more arid western and less arid eastern halves and is well expressed in terms of vegetation, land hydrology, crops, and the farm economy. Here, it is considered how this arid–humid divide will change in intensity and location during the current century under rising greenhouse gases. It is first shown that state-of-the-art climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project generally underestimate the degree of aridity of the United States and simulate an arid–humid divide that is too diffuse. These biases are traced to excessive precipitation and evapotranspiration and inadequate blocking of eastward moisture flux by the Pacific coastal ranges and Rockies. Bias-corrected future projections are developed that modify observationally based measures of aridity by the model-projected fractional changes in aridity. Aridity increases across the United States, and the aridity gradient weakens. The main contributor to the changes is rising potential evapotranspiration, while changes in precipitation working alone increase aridity across the southern and decrease across the northern United States. The “effective 100th meridian” moves to the east as the century progresses. In the current farm economy, farm size and percent of county under rangelands increase and percent of cropland under corn decreases as aridity increases. Statistical relations between these quantities and the bias-corrected aridity projections suggest that, all else being equal (which it will not be), adjustment to changing environmental conditions would cause farm size and rangeland area to increase across the plains and percent of cropland under corn to decrease in the northern plains as the century advances."
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: sidd on April 22, 2018, 12:56:31 AM
That pair of Seager papers is very good. I can see that i will spend some hours on it. Thanks for the link.

sidd
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 23, 2018, 08:24:10 PM
While the city has removed for this year the threat of a “Day Zero” when it would turn off the taps, daily consumption remains 57 million liters above the target of 450 million.

As Cape Town Dam Levels Drop to 20%, Residents Get Flood Warning
- Drought-hit city warned to prepare for deluge later Monday
- Daily water consumption still above 450 million liter target
Quote
Cape Town residents were warned to prepare for potential flooding Monday, on the same day that the average level of dams serving the drought-hit city dwindled to just 20 percent.

The South African government’s weather service said flooding is expected in the metropolis and surrounding regions later, moderating overnight. The forecast of heavy rain is in stark contrast with conditions caused by the worst drought on record, which have led to residents being restricted to using 50 liters (13 gallons) of water each a day and told to take 90-second showers. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-04-23/as-cape-town-dam-levels-drop-to-20-residents-get-flood-warning
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Daniel B. on April 24, 2018, 07:06:23 PM
That pair of Seager papers is very good. I can see that i will spend some hours on it. Thanks for the link.

sidd

Those at interesting models.  We will see if recent precipitation increase observations will change to follow it.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 04, 2018, 12:13:55 AM
The U.S. Southwest.

The water war that will decide the fate of 1 in 8 Americans
Quote
What’s happening could be seen as the slow death of an era of easy living, the unwinding of a nearly 100-year-old series of multi-state compacts (collectively called “The Law of the River”) that’s been widely viewed as too permissive. Over-reliance on the Colorado River has helped pave the way for rapid population growth across the region, from Southern California to Denver, which may now, ironically, begin to pose a threat to those same cities.

For many reasons, Arizona is last in line for the Colorado River’s water, and the state is already preparing for the mandatory restrictions that could be less than two years away. The latest official projections from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, the federal agency that manages the Colorado River system, shows that Lake Mead is likely to dip below the critical threshold of 1,075 feet above sea level late next year. That could trigger the first official “call on the river” — a legally-mandated cutback for certain users aimed at avoiding an all-out free-for-all. ...
https://grist.org/article/the-water-war-that-will-decide-the-fate-of-1-in-8-americans/
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 11, 2018, 03:37:44 AM
Southwest U.S.

“Dating back to 2000, this current period is one of the worst drought cycles over the past 1,200 plus years,” the bureau’s statement said.

Look! A federal agency is pushing for urgent climate action.
https://grist.org/article/look-a-federal-agency-is-pushing-for-urgent-climate-action/
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: gerontocrat on May 25, 2018, 05:42:39 PM
Southwest U.S.

“Dating back to 2000, this current period is one of the worst drought cycles over the past 1,200 plus years,” the bureau’s statement said.

Look! A federal agency is pushing for urgent climate action.
https://grist.org/article/look-a-federal-agency-is-pushing-for-urgent-climate-action/
Meanwhile:-

https://www.abqjournal.com/1175765/drought-on-tap-to-intensify-over-us-southwest.html

Experts: ‘Alarming’ drought conditions hit US Southwest

and

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/05/24/climate/dry-rio-grande.html

In a Warming West, the
Rio Grande Is Drying Up
[/size][/b]
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 25, 2018, 07:23:58 PM
I plan to walk across the Rio Grande next week when I visit family.  It might be just across the Rio Grande sand and dried mud flats.  (Most of the water is channelized [where I'm from], but the 'wild' river bed [as pictured above] used to often have water, sometimes even waist deep or deeper across the width.  One could always walk across it during the summer, albeit getting wet feet and maybe shins.  "Summer" is just getting earlier and earlier.)
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Alexander555 on May 25, 2018, 09:34:20 PM
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/drought-conditions-in-the-southwest-are-so-bad-that-they-are-already-being-compared-to-the-dust-bowl-of-the-1930s
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 05, 2018, 08:38:11 PM
Cape Town Dam Levels Recover to 30% After Higher May Rainfall
Quote
Dam levels in reservoirs serving the drought-hit South African city of Cape Town jumped by 5.8 percentage points last week after rainfall in May exceeded year-earlier figures and as residents continued to endure strict curbs on water use.

The dams were 29.8 percent full as of Monday, compared with 24 percent a week earlier, and 19.6 percent at the same stage in 2017. The level crept up to 30.4 percent on Tuesday, the city said in postings on its website. Three years ago, it was at 79 percent.

May’s rainfall of 216.3 millimeters (8.5 inches) was close to the long-term average, city authorities said in a statement. Residents still aren’t meeting a target of reducing daily consumption to 450 million liters (119 million gallons), using 530 million liters daily last week, an increase of 5 percent on the previous week.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-05/cape-town-dam-levels-recover-to-30-after-higher-may-rainfall
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 06, 2018, 04:46:50 AM
I plan to walk across the Rio Grande next week when I visit family.  ...
My great niece and I walked across the Rio Grande.  Although I found a spot 20-30 cm deep, my g. niece was never in over her ankles.  (There were pools along the edge that looked like they might be deep.)  I learned that the channel that used to carry most of the Rio Grande during the summer in south central New Mexico is no longer used for that purpose, and I noted it was dry below a permanent weir, holding water for local irrigation.

Note the truck tire marks showing where some fool drove in the river bed. The local river banks where we walked would be impassable.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: miki on June 06, 2018, 04:48:31 AM
I plan to walk across the Rio Grande next week when I visit family.  ...
My great niece and I walked across the Rio Grande.  Although I found a spot a 20-30 cm deep, my g. niece was never in over her ankles.  (There were pools along the edge that looked like they might be deep.)  I learned that the channel that used to carry most of the Rio Grande during the summer in south central New Mexico is no longer used for that purpose, and I noted it was dry below a permanent weir, holding water for local irrigation.

Yeah! We call it now Rio Poquito  ;)
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Alexander555 on June 09, 2018, 11:41:47 PM
https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/water-shortages-affect-900000-in-mexico-city/
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Alexander555 on June 12, 2018, 11:30:37 AM
https://photogallery.indiatimes.com/news/india/situation-in-delhi-worsens-after-severe-water-crisis/articleshow/64518517.cms
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: DrTskoul on June 12, 2018, 12:49:56 PM
Why Delhi is facing an acute water crisis today (https://www.dailyo.in/variety/groundwater-alarm-for-delhi-supreme-court-delhi-jal-board-ncr-water-crisis/story/1/24016.html)

Quote
Ahead of the summer, Delhi sees the same story play out every year. Of depleting groundwater levels. Of the water mafia who run illegal borewells. Of apathy by Delhi administration. Of haphazard urbanisation and flawed development models. Of faulty or non-existent plans to meet the ever-rising demand for water. Of courts reprimanding civic authorities. But more than anything, of a callous Delhi citizenry that exploits groundwater as if there is no tomorrow.

On May 9, many citizens woke up to alarming newspaper headlines that pointed to the over-exploitation of groundwater, with the Supreme Court calling the situation "semi-critical". The Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) told the top court that in different parts of the capital, the groundwater level has steadily declined from 0.5 metre a year to more than two metres a year and "could lead to a crisis if not halted".

Quote
...But the most serious revelation made by the CGWB report submitted to the top court is that New Delhi is now counted among "overexploited" zones. It is the same area that witnessed acute water retention till the 1970s, following which New Delhi Municipal Council (NDMC) deployed sumps to pump out the excess sub-surface water.

The crisis began as commercial high-rises came up near the Connaught Place area in the '70s. More than two decades later, in the 2000s, the Delhi Metro lines were laid and today, the Supreme Court extension chambers and a convention centre at Pragati Maidan are being constructed - all adding to the rising demand for water in New Delhi. Such large-scale construction requires de-watering, which leads to continuous depletion of the groundwater level....
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: gerontocrat on June 12, 2018, 01:29:30 PM
In the late 80's up to 2004 I did water projects in several large cities in South Asia and China. The story was the same everywhere - depletion of groundwater, illegal wells, water tariffs giving cheap water to the rich and expensive water to the poor, new water projects always lagging behind population growth and industrial demand. In many places, it was as bad or worse in agricultural areas - groundwater levels dropping like a stone.

Somehow the situation was and is always bad but never quite Armageddon. The worst was Jordan. In the Northern third of Jordan the average lift of water from source to consumer was over 700 metres. Water is heavy.

In Israel there are wells over one kilometre deep. They are investing heavily in desalination - but that is still - despite improved reverse osmosis systems -very expensive in energy and cost.

These problems exist AGW or no AGW. However, climate change may be the final nail in the coffin for one of these large cities somewhere in the world (Mexico City, Phoenix Arizona?). Who knows.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Ned W on June 12, 2018, 02:55:04 PM
From the UNL drought monitor website:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fdroughtmonitor.unl.edu%2Fdata%2Fjpg%2F20180605%2F20180605_usdm.jpg&hash=08e602b2df2e01c8f695e708604db119)
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Daniel B. on June 12, 2018, 03:11:11 PM
Over the past 120 years, the US as seen a decrease in areas experiencing the worst drought.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/uspa/wet-dry/0#data-select (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/uspa/wet-dry/0#data-select)
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: jai mitchell on June 12, 2018, 05:57:37 PM
NASA Observatory,

Intensifying Drought in the U.S. Southwest
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=92274&eocn=home&eoci=iotd_title

(https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/92000/92274/SWDrought_2018158_720x555wLegend.jpg)
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: FrostKing70 on June 12, 2018, 06:28:59 PM
I seem to recall that the big dam in China was projected to have the same issue (years to fill up), then a series of storms hit the area and it was full in less than a year, and helped reduce downstream flooding.   I hope the Nile / Ethiopian dam can experience a similar fill scenario.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Ned W on June 12, 2018, 07:51:11 PM
FWIW, Jai, that's literally the same map I posted just a few hours ago, two posts up-thread from yours....
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 13, 2018, 08:22:23 PM
'Australia doesn’t realise’: worsening drought pushes farmers to the brink
Liverpool plains farmer Megan Kuhn says cows are being slaughtered because there is no way of feeding them after years of extreme weather
Quote
December was the end of their seventh calendar year of below-average rainfall. In the 12 months to May this year, they have had just over 50% of their annual average rainfall.

“It’s terrible on the back of seven below-average rainfall years in a row,” Fleck says.  “We can’t get over a string of really hot summers. With the sheer consistency of extreme temperatures, the rate of evaporating is so high. We don’t have any surface water left on our property.”

They are relying on two bores and have begun selling their cattle as it becomes harder to sustain the high cashflow that’s necessary to buy in feed. “We spoke to the owners who had this property from 1954 to 1989. We asked what the creek was like in their 34 years. They said it had never dried up,” Fleck says.

“Everywhere is worse than I've ever seen it”
- Jane Judd, National Parks and Wildlife adviser


During the past 14 months, the Bureau of Meteorology has recorded below-average rainfall across New South Wales, central Queensland, the north-west of Victoria and into South Australia.  NSW has been the hardest hit in 2018. With the exception of the north and south coasts, most of the state has recorded the lowest rainfall in a five-month period since 1900.

Soil moisture levels are below average across much of Australia and in its latest winter outlook, the bureau is forecasting warmer and drier than average conditions across large parts of the country.  Communities in NSW say people are struggling and the rest of the country is not aware of the extent of the troubles in parts of that state. ...
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/10/australia-doesnt-realise-worsening-drought-pushes-farmers-to-the-brink
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Telihod on June 15, 2018, 08:36:24 PM
"(CNN) India is facing its worst water shortage in history. Six hundred million people are dealing with high to extreme water shortage, according to a report by Niti Aayog, a policy think tank for the Indian government.
The report states that an average of 200,000 Indian lives are lost every year due to inadequate supply or contamination of water."
"Twenty-one major Indian cities are estimated to run out of groundwater by 2020 -- just two years away."
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/06/15/health/india-water-shortage-crisis-intl/index.html (https://edition.cnn.com/2018/06/15/health/india-water-shortage-crisis-intl/index.html)
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Susan Anderson on June 15, 2018, 08:52:14 PM
Friends up north are reporting trouble (Vermont and Maine; I'm in Boston). This is a somewhat folksy response in a discussion group I'm part of; the writer is an expert meteorologist who tracks these things and lives in the middle of Maine. These problems are minor in the global scheme of things, but we are only just getting used to fairly serious droughts in northern New England. I hear that England is also in trouble (from a friend there).

Quote
Everything south of Augusta stayed dry and didn't even see that many clouds.  Aroostook hit the jackpot with well over an inch as most of the rain fell there and into southeast Quebec.  But this system really didn't have any tropical moisture with it, only what it had managed to pick up as it crossed the plains and southern Ontario near the Great Lakes.  That's what I was getting at when I said the polar vortex circulation has remained stuck over Nunavut, sometimes wobbling this way and sometimes that way across northern and northeast Canada.  Currently it's actually split with one half sliding closer to Greenland and the other half over the Northwest Territories as a big blocking high has set up over most of Nunavut in between.  But that pattern has still diverted the main jet stream on a west to east track across the Midwest and Northeast and that spells very dry conditions for this part of the world as only a few hit or miss rain systems occasionally manage to come through while most of the wet tropical air remains locked up down South.  Good luck with the garden.  Things could still change as we get into the summer, but don't count on it.  I think we'll all need some luck with our gardens again this year!!

Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: jacksmith4tx on June 16, 2018, 02:42:21 AM
"(CNN) India is facing its worst water shortage in history. Six hundred million people are dealing with high to extreme water shortage, according to a report by Niti Aayog, a policy think tank for the Indian government.
The report states that an average of 200,000 Indian lives are lost every year due to inadequate supply or contamination of water."
"Twenty-one major Indian cities are estimated to run out of groundwater by 2020 -- just two years away."
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/06/15/health/india-water-shortage-crisis-intl/index.html (https://edition.cnn.com/2018/06/15/health/india-water-shortage-crisis-intl/index.html)
Thanks for the news.
At some point they will have to make some hard choices. Do they continue to use thermal energy(boil [and evaporate] water) to make electricity or use it for agriculture and drinking. They seem to be making a token effort to install renewable energy but they will be lucky to hit their own targets and decades behind the Paris targets. I would add that the warmer the ambient temperature of the air and water the less efficient all thermal powers plants. That's not just a India problem since we regularly shut down power plants in the US for the same reason.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 01, 2018, 07:20:16 PM
Videos show gunfire amid Iran protests over water scarcity
Online videos appear to show Iranian security forces shooting at protesters early Sunday amid demonstrations over water scarcity in the country’s south.
Quote
Online videos appear to show Iranian security forces shooting at protesters early Sunday amid demonstrations over water scarcity in the country’s south, though authorities said only one person was wounded in the clashes.

The protests around Khorramshahr, some 400 miles southwest of Tehran, come as residents of the predominantly Arab city near the border with Iraq complain of salty, muddy water coming out of their taps amid a years-long drought.
...
Exacerbating that unrest is the drought. The Iran Meteorological Organization estimates 97 percent of the country faced some form of drought. Analysts also blame government mismanagement for diverting water away from some farmers in favor of others.

“Although Iran has a history of drought, over the last decade, Iran has experienced its most prolonged, extensive and severe drought in over 30 years,” said a recent report by the Food and Agriculture Organization, a United Nations agency. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/01/videos-show-gunfire-amid-iran-protests-over-water-scarcity.html
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 13, 2018, 02:09:37 PM
Drought in Ireland reveals old “henge” monument

Ireland's heatwave reveals amazing Newgrange discovery | IrishCentral.com
https://www.irishcentral.com/roots/history/forget-stonehenge-ireland-make-major-new-ancient-discovery
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: silkman on July 19, 2018, 08:58:56 AM
Some graphic images of the drought in New South Wales in this photo essay from the Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/19/you-count-your-blessings-farm-families-battling-drought-photo-essay

Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 21, 2018, 08:18:43 PM
Crop failure and bankruptcy threaten farmers as drought grips Europe
Abnormally hot temperatures continue to wreak devastation across northern and central parts of the continent
Quote
Farmers across northern and central Europe are facing crop failure and bankruptcy as one of the most intense regional droughts in recent memory strengthens its grip.

States of emergency have been declared in Latvia and Lithuania, while the sun continues to bake Swedish fields that have received only 12% of their normal rainfall. ...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/20/crop-failure-and-bankruptcy-threaten-farmers-as-drought-grips-europe
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Martin Gisser on July 21, 2018, 10:27:56 PM
Reminds me of Syria and a bit of Yemen:
Drought + water mismanagement + social tension (clans, sects...) = civil war

Videos show gunfire amid Iran protests over water scarcity
Online videos appear to show Iranian security forces shooting at protesters early Sunday amid demonstrations over water scarcity in the country’s south.
Quote
Online videos appear to show Iranian security forces shooting at protesters early Sunday amid demonstrations over water scarcity in the country’s south, though authorities said only one person was wounded in the clashes.

The protests around Khorramshahr, some 400 miles southwest of Tehran, come as residents of the predominantly Arab city near the border with Iraq complain of salty, muddy water coming out of their taps amid a years-long drought.
...
Exacerbating that unrest is the drought. The Iran Meteorological Organization estimates 97 percent of the country faced some form of drought. Analysts also blame government mismanagement for diverting water away from some farmers in favor of others.

“Although Iran has a history of drought, over the last decade, Iran has experienced its most prolonged, extensive and severe drought in over 30 years,” said a recent report by the Food and Agriculture Organization, a United Nations agency. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/01/videos-show-gunfire-amid-iran-protests-over-water-scarcity.html
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Martin Gisser on July 22, 2018, 01:55:51 AM
I forgot a crucial other factor: Overpopulation. E.g. Syria and Yemen have vastly overstretched the carrying capacity of their land. Then drought is the straw that breaks the camels back.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Martin Gisser on July 22, 2018, 03:52:41 AM
As to Yemen what pushed The Yemeni People over the edge was when those in the north who had been moving freely for hundreds of years across the Saudi border to tender their farms water wells etc were blocked from doing so when the Saudis built a Border fence and unilaterally banned the Yemenis from crossing the border anymore a few years ago - then the Civil War started as a result because the Yemeni (Saudi controlled) Govt did nothing about it. The people started to starve and their children were malnourished and started to get ill and die.

Detailed facts matter.
I blame that on overpopulation. Same complaints from Syrian farmers, who had been breeding like mindless rabbits even while receiving food help. That population bubble burst with the great drought, and the rest is ongoing history...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/02/syrias-drought-has-likely-been-its-worst-in-900-years

The Saudi-Yemen border is mostly desert (Rub' al Khali, the Empty Quarter). Nothing to quarrel over there. To the west there's some green, equally distributed between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. I don't see any reason for complaints - Except one side has overstretched their resources (and then it is unsurprising when history repeats itself...).

A major exception to this equidistribution is Najran in Saudi Arabia, which looks greener on Google Earth, due to the Najran Dam. Yemen might even profit a little from the reservoir lifting groundwater level at the edge of the border. -- Najran has its own grotesque population explosion: 10x since 1974. But the lucky Saudis still have enough oil to turn into food...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Najran

The Houthi almost captured Najran Dam in 2016. Perhaps one factor why the war grew so fierce.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi%E2%80%93Yemeni_border_conflict_(2015%E2%80%93present)
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: oren on July 22, 2018, 01:34:06 PM
Supporting the Yemen overpopulation claim:
Quote
Yemen's population is 28 million by 2016 estimates, with 46% of the population being under 15 years old and 2.7% above 65 years. In 1950, it was 4.3 million. By 2050, the population is estimated to increase to about 60 million.Yemen has a high total fertility rate, at 4.45 children per woman. It is the 30th highest in the world. Sana'a's population has increased rapidly, from roughly 55,000 in 1978 to nearly 2 million in the early 21st century
With the population in this desert country growing 6 times in about 65 years, while water resources have not grown and there are not enough natural resources/oil/export industries to support massive food imports, no wonder there are widespread food shortages and a civil war.
They are just on the fast lane of the road we are all on.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: bbr2314 on July 25, 2018, 01:14:36 AM
Europe has changed color. The Alps, however, appear much snowier than normal. Probably residual from springtime but nevertheless a possibly significant development.

(https://gph.is/2NKoScz)
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: magnamentis on July 25, 2018, 02:02:32 AM
Europe has changed color. The Alps, however, appear much snowier than normal. Probably residual from springtime but nevertheless a possibly significant development.

(https://gph.is/2NKoScz)

concerning the alps (only)

if there is any institution i trust 100% when it comes to snow and avalanges it's this one, flawless record and used by most scientists as reliable source. as to the rest i dunno whether this is possible to get in good enough english but in general it looks like extreme winter snow masses turned into earlier than average meltout.

since you're so interested in snow cover i thought perhaps this might be a source for you:

https://www.slf.ch/en.html

dunno didn't find below article in english just see what's usable or your purposes

https://www.slf.ch/de/lawinenbulletin-und-schneesituation/wochen-und-winterberichte/201718/wob-01-30-juni.html
Auf dem SLF-Messfeld am Weissfluhjoch Davos (2536 m, GR) waren die 118 cm Schnee (Schneehöhe vom 01.06.) in 20 Tagen geschmolzen. Das Messfeld war am 21.06. ausgeapert, 18 Tage vor dem durchschnittlichen Ausaperungsdatum am 09.07.

the blue part says 18 days before average, that's a lot and for that station only but beside that it's an indicator from experience, means the rest is often not that far from those measurements, has to be verified each time of course
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: bbr2314 on July 25, 2018, 02:18:18 AM
Europe has changed color. The Alps, however, appear much snowier than normal. Probably residual from springtime but nevertheless a possibly significant development.

(https://gph.is/2NKoScz)

concerning the alps (only)

if there is any institution i trust 100% when it comes to snow and avalanges it's this one, flawless record and used by most scientists as reliable source. as to the rest i dunno whether this is possible to get in good enough english but in general it looks like extreme winter snow masses turned into earlier than average meltout.

since you're so interested in snow cover i thought perhaps this might be a source for you:

https://www.slf.ch/en.html

dunno didn't find below article in english just see what's usable or your purposes

https://www.slf.ch/de/lawinenbulletin-und-schneesituation/wochen-und-winterberichte/201718/wob-01-30-juni.html
Auf dem SLF-Messfeld am Weissfluhjoch Davos (2536 m, GR) waren die 118 cm Schnee (Schneehöhe vom 01.06.) in 20 Tagen geschmolzen. Das Messfeld war am 21.06. ausgeapert, 18 Tage vor dem durchschnittlichen Ausaperungsdatum am 09.07.

the blue part says 18 days before average, that's a lot and for that station only but beside that it's an indicator from experience, means the rest is often not that far from those measurements, has to be verified each time of course
Thanks! Evidently though we may be better than some / many recent years summer is still below historical avgs in this area. Good to know.  ;D
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: oren on July 25, 2018, 08:28:57 AM
Thank you Magna. Here is what they have to say about snow trends, I will also post it to the NH snow thread where it properly belongs.
Quote
Snowpack responds to climate change
Thanks to the long-term measurement data, we have been able to identify some clear trends. The last 30 years have seen very low levels of snow, particularly on the Swiss Plateau. The trend towards less snowy winters at most stations below 1300 m is statistically significant. The lower the altitude of the observation station, the more apparent the changes are. By contrast, above 2000 m the snow depths in midwinter (December to February) show no clear trend. The same is not true of snow cover duration: the vast majority of stations are seeing a clear reduction in the number of days with snow-covered ground, regardless of their altitude or location. The primary reason for this is earlier snow melt in the spring. The delay of snow onset in autumn is also a factor at lower-altitude stations. In addition, the annual maxima for snowfall and snow depths have tended to decline at all stations over recent decades.

https://www.slf.ch/en/snow/snow-and-climate-change.html (https://www.slf.ch/en/snow/snow-and-climate-change.html)
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 30, 2018, 01:00:11 AM
HotSpots H2O, July 23, 2018: Chaos Engulfs Venezuela as Mismanagement and Drought Cut Water Access
Quote
Since President Nicolas Maduro took control of the Venezuelan government in 2013, the country has endured a growing wave of human rights abuses and resource shortages. Maduro put many industries, including the water sector, into the hands of the Venezuelan military. Water in the socialist nation is supposed to be subsidized and government-provided, but mismanagement and decaying infrastructure force most citizens in the capital, Caracas, to rely on trucked-in water or communal pumps. As the military takes control of the city’s water points and supply trucks, access is becoming more restricted and the price of water is soaring.

Throughout the rest of Venezuela, access to water, food, medicine, and other staples is also restricted. Last week, in the city of San Felix, a 12-year-old boy was shot in the chest during a protest over water and electricity outages. Similar protests are igniting across the country as Venezuela’s economy and infrastructure collapse.

“The water sector has been completely taken because of a government that believes the military can grant order to things. If on top of this institutional incompetence, you add a dry year, then the consequences are tremendous.” –Norberto Bausson, the head of Cracas water utility Hidrocapital in the 1990s. Venezuela’s rainfall has been below-average this year, exacerbating the water shortages. ...
https://www.circleofblue.org/2018/world/hotspots-h2o-july-23-chaos-engulfs-venezuela-as-mismanagement-and-drought-cut-water-access/
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Alexander555 on August 08, 2018, 09:22:16 PM
https://japantoday.com/category/world/despair-as-crippling-drought-hammers-australian-farmers
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 11, 2018, 12:12:28 AM
A Mid-winter Drought in Australia
Quote
July 2018 was the driest July in Australia since 2002. The dry month exacerbated an ongoing drought that had already ruined large swaths of grazing land and cropland. New South Wales has been hit the hardest, according to a news reports. About 99 percent of the state was in drought heading into August.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/92583/a-mid-winter-drought-in-australia
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 16, 2018, 08:58:06 PM
NIDIS (@DroughtGov)
8/16/18, 9:17 AM
There are a lot of changes in this week's US #DroughtMonitor - Exceptional #drought spreads in MO & KS while Extreme drought appears in OR & expands in CO. More expansion of drought in the High Plains & Pacific Northwest.

Significant improvement in parts of TX, LA, AR & AZ
https://twitter.com/droughtgov/status/1030081231944265728
Map below.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 19, 2018, 05:16:25 PM
How Delhi's rising heat and a love of concrete caused a deadly water crisis
Reports warn it could run out of groundwater by 2020. Has Delhi run out of time to reverse years of mismanagement and unchecked urbanisation?
Quote
Population growth, climate change, disputes between states, urbanisation and poor management of resources have made water – especially fresh, clean water – a commodity that is not readily available to all. A recent government thinktank report revealed that several major cities in India, including Delhi, could run out of groundwater as soon as 2020.
...
Paving over history

Ironically, the fight for water now comes amid heavy rain. May’s heatwave has given way to the monsoon season, causing flooding across India. Last week flash floods in Kerala killed 37 people and displaced a further 36,000.

For much of Delhi’s history, this seasonal rainfall was harnessed for use during the summer from March to May, with water stored and distributed through check dams, stepwells (baolis) and natural drains (nullahs). It reflected a philosophy that urban environmental planner Manu Bhatnagar calls “respecting the topography”, which has since fallen by the wayside in the city.

“Everybody respected the rain … [people knew] they had to gather it,” says Bhatnagar, director of natural heritage at the Indian National Trust for Art and Cultural Heritage. “When we started getting all these supplies coming from distant places or tube wells, taking water from 300 or 400 feet [below ground], we forgot about our rainfall. We forgot about our local resources.”

The neglect of those resources is said to have much to do with Delhi’s massive urbanisation, especially in recent decades. The city’s 1976 master plan featured 201 natural drains; as of last year, only 44 could be traced. Those that remain are mostly filthy open sewers, while the rest have been paved over with roads and parks. ...
https://amp.theguardian.com/cities/2018/aug/16/how-delhis-rising-heat-and-a-love-of-concrete-caused-a-deadly-water-crisis
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: jacksmith4tx on August 20, 2018, 09:10:05 PM
Drought reveals remains of German ‘Atlantis’ in lake Village abandoned when a large reservoir was created more than 100 years ago.
(https://www.mercurynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Germany-Weather-Edersee_2.jpg)
https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/08/19/drought-reveals-remains-of-german-atlantis-in-lake/

Germany’s third-biggest reservoir is being drained to keep water levels on the Weser river high enough for shipping.

Like many European countries, Germany has seen remarkably little rain in recent months.

The government is expected to decide Wednesday whether to provide federal aid to farmers whose business has suffered from the drought. Eight German states have already reported drought-related damage amounting to $3.4 billion.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: jacksmith4tx on August 23, 2018, 10:02:59 PM
Falling water levels of a river in Europe reveals forbidding omen.
https://abcnews.go.com/Lifestyle/wireStory/drought-reveals-ancient-hunger-stones-european-river-57354211
(https://s.abcnews.com/images/Lifestyle/WireAP_5a15a6259e8745d1bc94cf25a3975d42_12x5_992.jpg)
Quote

Due to this summer's drought in Central Europe, boulders known as "hunger stones" are reappearing in the Elbe River.

The low water levels in the river that begins in the Czech Republic then crosses Germany into the North Sea has exposed stones on the river bed whose appearances in history used to warn people that hard times were coming.

Over a dozen of the hunger stones, chosen to record low water levels, can now be seen in and near the northern Czech town of Decin near the German border.

The oldest water mark visible dates to 1616. That stone, is considered the oldest hydrological landmark in Central Europe, bears a chiseled inscription in German that says: "When you see me, cry."
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Martin Gisser on August 23, 2018, 10:37:45 PM
Here is a better picture from 1904. The oldest inscriptions 1417, 1473 are meanwhile gone, eroded by anchoring ships.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/de/5/5e/338_Hungerstein.jpg)
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungerstein_(Gew%C3%A4ssergrund)

-----------------------
P.S.:

(https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2018/08/23/14/wire-4047286-1535032784-64_634x418.jpg)
From http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6090727/Drought-reveals-ancient-hunger-stones-European-river.html
where they have an even better video.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: TerryM on August 24, 2018, 01:45:03 AM
The "Hunger stones" are totally new to me. I've a number of friends that devote themselves to discovering and attempting to decipher ancient petroglyphs in the deserts of the American Southwest.
I think that they will be very interested in this information.
Thanks
Terry
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Ktb on August 24, 2018, 06:19:57 AM

"When you see me, cry."


A chilling line, no doubt
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 08, 2018, 12:23:32 PM
Some footage here of my research areas after the record drought & heat.
You'll have to excuse me swearing  :P
It's pretty shocking especially when we have given ample warning for this type of disaster being made a lot worse by mismanagement.
The Dutch are still hellbent to recreate the vegetation of before 1600.
Species such as heath, blueberry, rowan, etc which have no chance and additionally are a fire hazard.
While wiping out others such as wild cherry which is now pretty much the only remaining food source producing fruit and even more essential to the food chain.
So with nothing to eat, wildlife has pretty much fled into the city where more trouble awaits.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMZfN9K-DKo&t=4s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUjsQV8yST0
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Alexander555 on September 20, 2018, 02:08:05 PM
Strong decline in food production in Argentina.

https://watchers.news/2018/09/20/severe-drought-blamed-for-sharp-decline-in-economy-exports-of-soy-and-corn-argentina/
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sleepy on October 05, 2018, 03:51:37 PM
Drought in Europe Summer 2018: crisis management in an orderly chaos
https://www.farm-europe.eu/blog-en/drought-in-europe-summer-2018-crisis-management-in-an-orderly-chaos/ (https://www.farm-europe.eu/blog-en/drought-in-europe-summer-2018-crisis-management-in-an-orderly-chaos/)

DWD says no precipitation in sight (in german).
https://www.dwd.de/DE/wetter/thema_des_tages/2018/10/5.html (https://www.dwd.de/DE/wetter/thema_des_tages/2018/10/5.html)
(https://www.dwd.de/DE/wetter/thema_des_tages/2018/10/5_Bild.png?__blob=normal&v=2)
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: vox_mundi on October 19, 2018, 05:24:35 PM
Water Woes as Drought Leaves Germany's Rhine Shallow (https://www.thelocal.de/20181018/record-low-water-levels-expose-world-war-ii-bomb-in-cologne)

Quote
The Rhine currently has its lowest ever amount of water. In Emmerich, the water level has reached a record low of 22 centimeters (8 inches) - six centimeters below the lowest known water level on October 1st, 2003.

In Cologne, authorities expects the Rhine level to fall below the previous low water record of 0.81 meters from 2003 this week. For Thursday, Cologne's municipal sewerage companies expect a level of 0.80 metres.

Extremely low water levels in the river Rhine in Cologne have exposed a bomb from the Second World war, estimated to weigh between 50 to 125kg.

The low tide is already causing massive problems to freight traffic on the river, which is the second-longest river in Central and Western Europe - after the Danube - at about 1,230 km

Freight firms have raised concerns about losses because of the disruption the low water levels have caused.  There are also problems with passenger transport. The Cologne-Düsseldorf shipping company has discontinued its scheduled services on the Rhine.

The energy company RWE is still unable to supply the coal-fired power plant in Hamm with full coal freighters, RP Online said.

A company spokesman said that due to the low water level, the ships could only transport just over two thirds of cargo to the power plant. In the summer the plant had been taken off the grid for a few days because of problems with the coal supply.

According to German weather reports, the Cologne area is expected to remain dry but there is a chance of some rain showers on Thursday.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sebastian Jones on October 19, 2018, 08:31:38 PM
Water Woes as Drought Leaves Germany's Rhine Shallow (https://www.thelocal.de/20181018/record-low-water-levels-expose-world-war-ii-bomb-in-cologne)

Quote
The Rhine currently has its lowest ever amount of water. In Emmerich, the water level has reached a record low of 22 centimeters (8 inches) - six centimeters below the lowest known water level on October 1st, 2003.


The energy company RWE is still unable to supply the coal-fired power plant in Hamm with full coal freighters, RP Online said.

A company spokesman said that due to the low water level, the ships could only transport just over two thirds of cargo to the power plant. In the summer the plant had been taken off the grid for a few days because of problems with the coal supply.

File this under relentless optimism: Coal supplies disrupted, reinforcing the value of renewables.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: vox_mundi on October 27, 2018, 05:17:47 PM
... File this under relentless optimism: Coal supplies disrupted, reinforcing the value of renewables.
We can only wish ...

Drought-hit Rhine Forces Germany to Tap Oil Reserves   (https://m.phys.org/news/2018-10-drought-hit-rhine-germany-oil-reserves.html)

Quote
The German government on Friday said it had authorised the release of strategic fuel reserves after record-low water levels in the drought-hit Rhine river badly disrupted oil shipments in recent weeks

Among those worst hit by delivery problems because of the reduced river traffic has been Frankfurt's busy international airport, as well as the city of Cologne and the western states of Hesse, Baden-Wuerttemberg and Rhineland Palatinate.

By law, Germany may tap its oil product reserves "to relieve a local crisis situation".

According to Wirtschaftswoche magazine, it is only the fourth time in 40 years the government has taken this step.

... On Friday, Cologne measured a water level of just 73 centimetres (29 inches).

The ongoing dry spell has prompted industrial giant Thyssenkrupp to cut back production at its Duisburg plant because of a reduced supply of raw materials.

Chemicals giant BASF has likewise grappled with "limited deliveries" to its Ludwigshafen factory, while energy group RWE is struggling to supply its Hamm power plant with coal.

Other rivers in Germany have suffered too, with levels on the Elbe leading to Hamburg also dangerously low.

While the railroad is able to deliver a certain amount of oil to customers, it is not nearly enough to compensate for the decreased river traffic.

Elsewhere ...

Drought to cut east Australia crop output in half from 20-year average (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-drought-outlook/drought-to-cut-east-australia-crop-output-in-half-from-20-year-average-idUSKCN1N00D7)
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-drought-outlook/drought-to-cut-east-australia-crop-output-in-half-from-20-year-average-idUSKCN1N00D7

MELBOURNE (Reuters) - Drought is expected to cut eastern Australia’s crop production this year to less than half the average over the past 20 years, with New South Wales to be worst hit, the country’s agricultural commodities forecaster said on Friday.

... About half the farm land in southeastern Australia is suffering 1-in-20 year drought conditions, compared with more than 80 percent that was hit during the worst of the 2002-03 drought, the bureau said.
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: bligh8 on November 09, 2018, 01:58:09 PM
Exacerbation of the 2013–2016 Pan‐Caribbean Drought by Anthropogenic Warming


Abstract
The Caribbean islands are expected to see more frequent and severe droughts from reduced precipitation and increased evaporative demand due to anthropogenic climate change. Between 2013 and 2016, the Caribbean experienced a widespread drought due in part to El Niño in 2015–2016, but it is unknown whether its severity was exacerbated by anthropogenic warming. This work examines the role of recent warming on this drought, using a recently developed high‐resolution self‐calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index data set. The resulting analysis suggest that anthropogenic warming accounted for ~15–17% of the drought's severity and ~7% of its spatial extent. These findings strongly suggest that climate model projected anthropogenic drying in the Caribbean is already underway, with major implications for the more than 43 million people currently living in this region.


Plain Language Summary

Climate models project significant drying for the Caribbean as a consequence of increased anthropogenic greenhouse‐gas concentrations. Between 2013 and 2016, virtually, the entire region experienced a Pan‐Caribbean drought, which was unprecedented since at least 1950. We find that human‐caused warming contributed to ~15–17% of drought severity by increasing evapotranspiration rates and accounted for ~7% of land area under drought across the Caribbean. Our results therefore suggest that anthropogenic warming has already increased drought risk in the Caribbean.

doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079408  .. open access

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL079408

bligh


Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 14, 2018, 05:03:28 PM
More on the Rhine River drought.  ”...on Oct. 23 recorded an all-time low water level of 26 inches [66 cm] in Cologne, the Rhine’s biggest city with a population of about 1 million.”

Drought has hit Europe's Rhine River and its commerce hard: 'Everyone's hoping for rain'
Quote
Many gas stations in the region have been running dry without fresh supplies from Rhine cargo ships and winter home heating fuel deliveries have been curtailed or postponed. Some airlines operating from farther south in Frankfurt have grown concerned about their supplies of jet fuel.

Most cruise ship operators in Cologne decided to shut down a few weeks earlier than usual this autumn rather than risk running aground or into a submerged obstacle in the treacherously shallow waters. Items including unexploded World War II-era aerial bombs and other ordnance as well as rusting car wrecks have been found in the increasingly exposed riverbed. Scores of abandoned bicycles, tons of metallic objects and trash and even a still-locked safe have been recovered as the waters retreated.
http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-europe-germany-rhine-20181112-story.html
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Steven on November 20, 2018, 09:14:40 PM
Another article (in German) about the drought in Germany:
https://projekte.sueddeutsche.de/artikel/panorama/duerre-in-deutschland-e407144/

Flow rate of the Rhine river at Cologne in 2018 (red) vs. normal (blue):

(https://i.imgur.com/FX2S48b.png)

Rhine at Bingen, now vs. normal:

(https://i.imgur.com/A5tgNDN.gif)

Similar conditions elsewhere in Germany, e.g. the Elbe river:

(https://i.imgur.com/ZVKHnMx.png)
Title: Re: 2018 Droughts
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 12, 2018, 04:31:32 PM
Communities are losing power or switching to diesel as water flow to hydroelectric plants runs low.

A Weird Severe Drought Is Affecting Alaska in One of the Wettest U.S. Locations
Quote
Severe drought has gripped one of the nation's wettest climates for months even though it has received more than 95 inches of precipitation this year.

Ketchikan, Alaska, has recorded 96.62 inches of precipitation (rain/melted snow) in 2018 through Dec. 10. In many parts of the United States that would be an extreme amount, but in Ketchikan that's 35.94 inches below average.
https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2018-12-11-weird-drought-alaska-ketchikan-wet-climate