Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Consequences => Topic started by: Neven on January 15, 2018, 09:27:10 PM

Title: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Neven on January 15, 2018, 09:27:10 PM
Continued from here: Hurricane season 2017 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2018.msg138926.html#msg138926)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on January 15, 2018, 09:30:45 PM
Continued from here: Hurricane season 2017 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2018.msg138926.html#msg138926)

Thank'ee sorr !
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Gray-Wolf on January 16, 2018, 10:04:14 AM
I'll make a prediction from here in the depth of winter.
We will see as active a season as we just saw and a repeat of this rapid deepening and record setting high cat. lifespan of storms.
The issues between the tropical Pacific and Atlantic have abated so the high shear upper atmosphere environment is reduced meaning the tops won't be being continually knocked off storms as they try to form and the Saharan dust will not be as extensive ( again) as the winds that spread it into the Caribbean ease?
Folk should have focussed on the way the Pacific storms evolved, post 05', knowing that the return of active Atlantic seasons would see these 'new', faster forming, stronger for longer, storms arrive in our basin.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on January 16, 2018, 10:37:06 AM
The Indian Ocean around Madagascar is havig its third cyclone in recent weeks. La Reunion is going to get clobbered a bit.

JTWC is moving back to the US navy.

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The Public Facing Naval Oceanographic Portal (NOP-PF) is migrating to a new hosting provider and the URL is changing in the process. Please update your bookmarks to use http://www.metoc.navy.mil as the new URL. This current website will be retired in January 2018. If you have any questions or concerns about this please submit an email to Navy311@navy.mil and in the subject line include "METOC NON-POR: NOP-PF" so that the email is routed to the correct support team.

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Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Daniel B. on January 16, 2018, 06:52:59 PM
I suspect that we will see a reversal of the 2017 hurricane season.  Namely a more active Pacific and less active Atlantic season than last year.  With neutral ENSO conditions expected this spring, we may experience normal seasons in both basins.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on January 16, 2018, 07:06:57 PM
Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) Warning #16

10 knots stronger (85knots) when it hits La Reunion on Thursday
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Paddy on January 21, 2018, 09:27:04 AM
I'm not going to try and predict this hurricane season, but some forecasters are saying it looks likely to be active: http://weatherplus.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2017/12/27/early-forecast-calls-for-active-2018-hurricane-season/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 28, 2018, 08:20:57 PM
The effects of the 2017 Hurricane season are far from over....

450K Customers in Puerto Rico Still Without Power Four Months After Hurricane Maria
Quote
More than four months since Hurricane Maria battered Puerto Rico, nearly half a million customers are still without power, the Army Corps of Engineers said this week.

Roughly 4,000 power restoration personnel are now working to restore the electricity to more than 450,000 customers. That effort will grow in the next few weeks as an additional 1,000 workers, along with hundreds of bucket trucks and other equipment, are being brought in to "accelerate progress," according to a statement released by the Corps.

Puerto Rico Gov. Ricardo Rossello recently announced plans to privatize the power authority. The Corps has said it expects that the entire island will have power again by May. ...
https://weather.com/news/news/2018-01-26-hurricane-maria-puerto-rico-power-outages-restoration

“Sunday in Puerto Rico
130 days after Maria

Status.pr reports:
*83% power generation

*69% of island has electricity
(1 million customer have had their power restored; about 450,000 remain without power)

*96% of the island has water”
https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status/957637275403341824


Edit: 
Here’s What One Day In The Dysfunction Of Restoring Puerto Rico’s Electricity Looks Like
A local congressman was sure a temporary fix would restore power to 10,000 people in Arecibo this weekend. They’re still in darkness.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/nidhiprakash/arecibo-electricity
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 29, 2018, 10:20:46 PM
“Something similar happened to us in Bayamón.Our neighborhood (Cerro Gordo,road 830) appeared on PREPA's schedule last week(10 brigades,according to the chart),but no one saw them working the area.“
https://twitter.com/Maraliz0025/status/957662643636105216
Image of a brigade schedule at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 30, 2018, 07:05:54 PM
"If we're giving free water and food, that means that families are not going to supermarkets to buy."

FEMA on the defensive after announcing an end to emergency food and water aid to Puerto Rico in the middle of a humanitarian emergency.
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/958378405883531270

FEMA to 'officially shut off' food and water aid to Puerto Rico
Quote
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) announced Tuesday that it will end free supplies of food and water in Puerto Rico this week as the island's supermarkets and other businesses reopen following Hurricane Maria.

NPR reported Tuesday that FEMA will "officially shut off" aid to the island on Wednesday after providing more than 30 million gallons of drinking water and 60 million meals to its inhabitants.
...
In a statement to The Hill, FEMA's public affairs director William Booher clarified that the agency would continue to assist volunteer agencies and nonprofits with relief efforts in rural areas of Puerto Rico, as well as the territory's government.

"FEMA will continue to support any documented needs and will provide supplies to volunteer agencies and other private nonprofit organizations who are working with households in rural, outlying areas to address ongoing disaster-related needs as power and water is gradually restored," Booher said.
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/371347-fema-to-officially-shut-off-food-and-water-aid-to-puerto-rico
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 06, 2018, 07:41:16 PM
FEMA awarded her company $156 million to deliver 30 million meals to Puerto Rico. She was the only employee -- and delivered just 50,000.
“They probably should have gone with someone else"
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/960908915989975040
Link to NYT article at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: FishOutofWater on February 07, 2018, 02:10:05 AM
A large amount of ocean heat stored in the northern Indian ocean has been transported to the Atlantic and Indonesian regions. The heat content of the western N Pac has increased while the eastern N Pac has lost heat in the tropical region. In the north Atlantic there has been a strong northerly transport of ocean heat.

Therefore, at this time I anticipate a stronger hurricane season in the west Pacific in 2018, a weaker season in the E Pac, a weak season in the N Indian ocean and a weaker, but above average season in the N Atlantic. The N Atlantic will get a strong flow of warm water from south of the equator to make up for the strong northerly transport that has been happening through the winter. There has been an increase in heat content in the south Atlantic for the last 2 years or so. I would have to review a large number of maps to present the details precisely.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 12, 2018, 04:19:44 PM
“Tropical Cyclone #Gita hit #Tonga today with the strength of a Category 4 hurricane, the #Himawari8 geostationary satellite captured the path of the storm over the past 24 hours. Learn more about our international satellite partners in orbit here:  https://goo.gl/BTU7Xw  “
https://mobile.twitter.com/noaasatellites/status/963059622918737923
 Satellite loop at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 13, 2018, 07:20:32 PM
“Here are some photos we were sent from relatives and friends in Tonga. It was a difficult night, and the road to recovery will be long. But we are grateful for our strong communities and faith. #CycloneGita ”
https://twitter.com/350Pacific/status/963157991699636224
Photos at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on February 13, 2018, 09:13:13 PM
All crops are destroyed, sounds worse than Puerto Rico.

https://www.rt.com/news/418704-tonga-cyclone-parliament-destruction/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 18, 2018, 06:38:50 PM
Puerto Rico, Day 151:
—More than 700,000 people still w/o power (24% of the island)
—Tens of thousands of people still w/o clean water
—Still a humanitarian emergency
Statistics from:  status.pr
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/965204442231472129


Quick report from #PuertoRico: Punta Santiago remains without power 5 months later. Schools close at 1130am because they cannot feed the students. #ChefsForPuertoRico will continue to deliver food and will work on bringing food to schools so they can stay open. @WCKitchen
https://mobile.twitter.com/devilstower/status/964981598444818432
Video from Punta Santiago at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on February 20, 2018, 08:52:35 PM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11998468
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on March 04, 2018, 07:31:07 PM
This is the nor'eastern that hit the US this weekend. What is left moves further to Europe. With hurricane-speed winds, next weekend.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on March 17, 2018, 08:48:02 PM
https://watchers.news/2018/03/17/tropical-cyclone-marcus-hits-darwin-as-category-2-system/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 20, 2018, 03:05:08 PM
“Puerto Rico, Day 180:
—More than 200,000 people still w/o power (7% of the island)
—Tens of thousands of people still w/o clean water
—For these people, Hurricane Maria is still a humanitarian emergency”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/975779541468794880


Heartbreaking description of continuing consequences of the outrageously inadequate federal response to the hurricane in Puerto Rico nearly six months ago.

'We are the forgotten people': It's been almost six months since Hurricane Maria, and Puerto Ricans are still dying
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/03/15/politics/puerto-rico-six-month-deaths-sutter-invs/index.html
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on March 20, 2018, 04:05:39 PM
I confess I'm a bit scared of the consequences of another strong Hurricane in PR.  On one hand all systems are very fragile. I still don't have Internet service other than my mobile. The mobile service is intermittent. Water and power services are mostly up but constantly down. There are tilted power and communications poles everywhere and lose cables everywhere.   

On the other hand many people will be more resilient, including myself. This time around, I'll have a chainsaw, many battery powered utilities like fans and lights, a brand new generator I got from my PPA with the old genny, and we just agreed to invest in a small, but significantly larger than the one I had, solar/batteries set up. Many people are in similar situations.

The government is just as broke but there is a lot of heavy equipment already on the ground that didn't exist before Maria. There are also many organizations and paths to other organizations that didn't exist before Maria or are much better prepared this time around.

We'll see.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 22, 2018, 01:54:57 PM
“Fish News: #Cyclone #MARCUS hits Cat 5. I ain't the kind of dude to ooooh and aaaah over a cyclone that can't be chased (and savored)—but I'll admit it looks pretty good. ”
https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/976588096631394304
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on March 22, 2018, 05:21:58 PM
“Fish News: #Cyclone #MARCUS hits Cat 5. I ain't the kind of dude to ooooh and aaaah over a cyclone that can't be chased (and savored)—but I'll admit it looks pretty good. ”

But it is this one that is going to do some damage. (Image from JTWC)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 25, 2018, 07:39:14 PM
Houston, Texas:  more Hurricane Harvey aftermath.

Hurricane Harvey’s toxic impact deeper than public told
Quote
In all, reporters catalogued more than 100 Harvey-related toxic releases — on land, in water and in the air. Most were never publicized, and in the case of two of the biggest ones, the extent or potential toxicity of the releases was initially understated.

Only a handful of the industrial spills have been investigated by federal regulators, reporters found.

Texas regulators say they have investigated 89 incidents, but have yet to announce any enforcement actions.

Testing by state and federal regulators of soil and water for contaminants was largely limited to Superfund toxic waste sites.

Based on widespread air monitoring, including flyovers, officials repeatedly assured the public that post-Harvey air pollution posed no health threat. But the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency official in charge now says these general assessments did not necessarily reflect local “hotspots” with potential risk to people.

Regulators alerted the public to dangers from just two, well-publicized toxic disasters: the Arkema chemical plant northeast of Houston that exploded and burned for days, and a nearby dioxin-laden federal Superfund site whose protective cap was damaged by the raging San Jacinto River. ...
https://apnews.com/e0ceae76d5894734b0041210a902218d/Hurricane-Harvey's-toxic-impact-deeper-than-public-told
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 06, 2018, 07:25:05 PM
Puerto Rico Plans to Shutter 283 Schools
Declining enrollments and a persistent budget crisis prompt closures that could displace 60,000 students.
Quote
The government had already closed roughly 170 of its 1,270 schools after the 2017 school year. Officials estimate roughly 26,000 students did not come back after Hurricane Maria. Many teachers on the island say that Keleher and Rosselló are using the devastation of the hurricane to implement privatization efforts that have been proposed for years. ...
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/04/puerto-rico-plans-to-shutter-283-schools/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on April 06, 2018, 07:50:52 PM
Like everything always is, it's complicated.

The Amazingly Horrible Test Scores of Students in Puerto Rico

http://www.unz.com/isteve/the-amazingly-horrible-test-scores-of-students-in-puerto-rico/

The Puertorican public school system is failing the people. Many schools don't even have the capacity of making roll calls. Absenteeism of teacher's and students is a habit. A diploma is more important than actual learning. The big bucks are spent in useless bureaucracy instead of teachers and books.

Yet there are good people. After the Maria some of the first kitchens to open where school cafeterias. Teachers and parents did the heavy lifting cleaning schools and removing debris, only to have their schools closed by the DE.  There are some highly successful specialized schools, but they are the exception not the norm.

Is privatization the answer? I don't know. But it can't get worse. I've always though that decentralization and giving the communities the power over their schools is the way to go. Privatization is a proxy for decentralization but since the DE is keeping all the bureaucracy at the same time it closes schools, I imagine the privatized schools will be even worse, if that is even possible.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: TerryM on April 07, 2018, 01:58:21 AM
Like everything always is, it's complicated.

The Amazingly Horrible Test Scores of Students in Puerto Rico

http://www.unz.com/isteve/the-amazingly-horrible-test-scores-of-students-in-puerto-rico/ (http://www.unz.com/isteve/the-amazingly-horrible-test-scores-of-students-in-puerto-rico/)

The Puertorican public school system is failing the people. Many schools don't even have the capacity of making roll calls. Absenteeism of teacher's and students is a habit. A diploma is more important than actual learning. The big bucks are spent in useless bureaucracy instead of teachers and books.

Yet there are good people. After the Maria some of the first kitchens to open where school cafeterias. Teachers and parents did the heavy lifting cleaning schools and removing debris, only to have their schools closed by the DE.  There are some highly successful specialized schools, but they are the exception not the norm.

Is privatization the answer? I don't know. But it can't get worse. I've always though that decentralization and giving the communities the power over their schools is the way to go. Privatization is a proxy for decentralization but since the DE is keeping all the bureaucracy at the same time it closes schools, I imagine the privatized schools will be even worse, if that is even possible.
Re the bolded:


It can.
It is.


I really believe a child could educate himself or herself with access to the internet, and a partner to get him to a basic reading stage.
If a charter school has filled his head with nonsense he's doomed.


Fight to get some decent teachers & fight against the leeches that find profit potential in illiterate kids.
Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: charles_oil on April 07, 2018, 02:18:54 PM

http://gcaptain.com/after-worst-hurricane-season-ever-2018-will-be-above-average/?goal=0_f50174ef03-3f4daaa860-139828445&mc_cid=3f4daaa860&mc_eid=6f655bf7d8



Colorado State University’s initial Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecast is calling for a slightly above-average 2018 hurricane season with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
 
By Brian K. Sullivan (Bloomberg) — After the costliest Atlantic hurricane season in history last year, early forecasts indicate 2018 will be above average.
 
 Look for 14 named storms, and there’s a greater than normal chance of a major system striking the U.S., according to Colorado State University.
Colorado State’s forecast is closely watched. It’s now in its 35th year, and comes after hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria helped drive total losses to more than $215 billion in 2017. However, because it comes so early, the April forecast can be the least accurate, according to Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the report.
“Spring is very volatile,” Klotzbach said. “The changes from April to June can be pretty dramatic.”
 
Seven storms could become hurricanes this year and three major systems may reach Category 3 or stronger on the five-step, Saffir-Simpson scale, according to the forecast. There’s a 63 percent chance the continental U.S. will get hit by a major hurricane, compared with the 20th Century average of 52 percent. ..... continues on link above
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: oren on April 07, 2018, 03:59:59 PM
Considering the performance of last year's April forecast, I think the warning of low reliability of the early forecast is definitely merited.
https://source.colostate.edu/csu-team-predicts-slightly-average-2017-atlantic-hurricane-season (https://source.colostate.edu/csu-team-predicts-slightly-average-2017-atlantic-hurricane-season)
Quote
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team is predicting 11 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season... Of those, researchers expect four to become hurricanes and two to reach major hurricane strength
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Daniel B. on April 07, 2018, 07:22:06 PM
Considering the performance of last year's April forecast, I think the warning of low reliability of the early forecast is definitely merited.
https://source.colostate.edu/csu-team-predicts-slightly-average-2017-atlantic-hurricane-season (https://source.colostate.edu/csu-team-predicts-slightly-average-2017-atlantic-hurricane-season)
Quote
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team is predicting 11 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season... Of those, researchers expect four to become hurricanes and two to reach major hurricane strength

Their April forecast has modest accuracy.  In the past their predictive ability better matched the observations.  Recently, no so much.  Last year they predicted a below average season.

https://www.denverpost.com/2018/04/05/colorado-state-university-hurricane-predictions-2018/ (https://www.denverpost.com/2018/04/05/colorado-state-university-hurricane-predictions-2018/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 12, 2018, 07:34:22 PM
Just now (April 12)

“BREAKING: A massive power outage is being reported across Puerto Rico, from the southern part of the island to the north.

PREPA says there’s an “event” of the 50900 line which runs north to south

Previous failures of this line have affected most of the 1,473,000 customers”

https://twitter.com/davidbegnaud/status/984482138442600450

Edit: 
Update: “BREAKING: the Puerto Rico Power Authority says a falling tree is to blame for the massive power outage on the island; local media reports 900,000 customers have lost power”
https://twitter.com/davidbegnaud/status/984492964134162432

https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/puerto-rico-crisis/puerto-rico-fallen-tree-power-line-leaves-900k-without-power-n865506
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on April 12, 2018, 08:15:01 PM
Could this have an impact on the future hurricane seasons ?  If the current slows down further , maybe more heat will stay at the equator. And the water in the golf of Mexico is already warmer than average for as long i'm watching it.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/slow-motion-ocean-atlantics-circulation-is-weakest-in-1-600-years/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 14, 2018, 12:47:42 AM
Due to their historic impact.

U.S. National Hurricane Center:
Harvey, Irma, Maria & Nate are retired from the Atlantic tropical storm name list by the World Meteorological Organization Region IV Hurricane Committee, and replaced with Harold, Idalia, Margot, & Nigel. Will first appear on the 2023 list. @NWS @NOAAComms @NHC_Atlantic @NOAA ”
https://twitter.com/NWSNHC/status/984381793246867456
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 14, 2018, 09:51:14 PM
Puerto Rico’s blackout is now the second largest on record worldwide
Thousands are still without power across the island months after Hurricane Maria struck.
https://www.vox.com/2018/4/13/17229172/puerto-rico-blackout-hurricane-maria
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 18, 2018, 09:20:19 PM
Puerto Rico loses power island-wide for first time since Hurricane Maria hit U.S. territory
Quote
SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico -- An island-wide blackout hit Puerto Rico on Wednesday as the U.S. territory struggles with an increasingly unstable power grid nearly seven months after Hurricane Maria. Officials said it could take 24 to 36 hours to fully restore power to more than 1.4 million customers as outrage grew across the island about the state of Puerto Rico's Electric Power Authority.
...
Angel Figueroa, president of a union that represents power company workers in Puerto Rico, said it appears that a failure on a main line caused the island's entire electrical grid to shut down to protect itself.

Rivera said he worries that such serious power outages are still occurring as the new Atlantic hurricane season, which starts on June 1, approaches.

"If there's a slight storm, we're going to be worse off than we are right now," he said. ...
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/puerto-rico-loses-power-island-wide-hurricane-maria-us/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 19, 2018, 01:33:37 PM
But not quite the entire island.

“Tesla batteries are currently live & delivering power at 662 locations in Puerto Rico. Team is working 24/7 to activate several hundred more. ”
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/986746909153869824

Edit: details...
Quote
As we previously reported, some of those locations include very critical services.

For example, Tesla deployed a series of Powerpack systems on the Puerto Rican islands of Vieques and Culebra for a sanitary sewer treatment plant, the Arcadia water pumping station, the Ciudad Dorada elderly community, the Susan Centeno hospital, and the Boys and Girls Club of Vieques.

Furthermore, the automaker’s energy division also deployed a solar+battery system at a hospital in Puerto Rico. ...
https://electrek.co/2018/04/18/tesla-powerwall-powerpack-puerto-rico-blackout-elon-musk/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on April 20, 2018, 11:18:59 AM
Florida Everglades Still Reeling Months After Hurricane Irma, NASA Says
https://weather.com/science/nature/news/2018-04-18-florida-everglades-trees-hurricane-irma-nasa-damage

NASA Mapping Hurricane Damage to Everglades, Puerto Rico Forests
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2018/nasa-mapping-hurricane-damage-to-everglades-puerto-forests

Quote
Last spring, NASA researchers flew over the Everglades and Puerto Rico to measure how mangroves and rainforests grow and evolve over time. Five months later, hurricanes Irma and Maria tore through those study areas – creating a unique opportunity to investigate the devastating effects of massive storms on these ecosystems, as well as their gradual recovery.....

.....The view of southeastern Florida, less than three months after Hurricane Irma hit, revealed swaths of leafless trees and broken branches, even uprooted mangrove trees.

“It’s staggering how much was lost. The question is, which areas will regrow and which areas won’t,” said Lola Fatoyinbo, a remote sensing scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland and the Florida project’s principal investigator. “This is an opportunity -- with all these data, we can really make a difference in understanding how hurricanes impact Florida’s mangrove ecosystems.”......

.......The store of post-hurricane data – all free and available to the public – is about to grow. G-LiHT flights over Puerto Rico, which was hit by both Hurricane Irma and the Category 4 Hurricane Maria on Sept. 20, are scheduled to start next week.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on April 20, 2018, 01:11:03 PM
 We already suspected it because there was no cell phone signal, but as soon as we found out through the solar powered radio that the blackout was general my wife gave the order. Let's buy a battery and a solar panel.

We went to a sound systems store that sells solar components when they are available. Just the day before they announced over facebook that they got their hands on a new shipments of AGM batteries and their prices were very good.

The first thing I noticed  was that even when there was no power, the lights were on and the AC was on. There was no numbing sounds of diesel generators or noxious fumes fouling the air.  The place runs exclusively on solar panels and batteries. The owner later told me that they have been off grid for a year now. I found the battery I needed at a reasonable price with a two year warranty with the store. They had me at hello.

Regrettably, the owner tells me that since the storm they run out of solar panels as soon as they can get them. I needed the panel so I left and  went to an actual solar panel store that just recently opened in my town.

Again, while there was no power anywhere, this store had lights on, AC on and was brimming with customers and employees. The first thing I see when I walk in is a Tesla Powerwall. It is such a beautiful battery that I thought it was for display. However, when I examine it closely the darn thing is connected. It was actually running the store! This turned out to be a good day, even without power.

I think renewables/storage is about to go viral in PR. Reliability of the grid and the certain price hikes that are coming will make the case for solar even better than it already is.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on April 20, 2018, 02:13:59 PM
Quote
...NASA Mapping Hurricane Damage to Everglades, Puerto Rico Forests...

You really had to see it to believe it. After the hurricane everything looked black and burned. There was debris literally everywhere. All trees suffered damage. Even ground overgrow was flattened by the wind as if someone mowed the world. I've never seen anything remotely like that.

Will forests recover? As long as there is sunlight and water and no disease trees will grow but trees are not forests. I like to see forests as ecosystems that generate their own climate. Removing a small part of the forest may heal fast because the forest can sustain it's own favorable climate, but remove enough of it and it may take decades or centuries of favorable climate to get the forest back.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on April 22, 2018, 11:38:04 AM
The US Navy has tarted up the Joint Typhoon Warning Center at:- http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

Looks like double trouble developing in the Indian Ocean.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 23, 2018, 12:51:08 AM
The Hurricane Season 2017 thread is locked, so I will post these here....

Engaging retelling of the 2017 Atlantic hurricanes as experienced by a U.S. east coast hurricane tracker.

Tracking the Hurricanes: 2017 Part One
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8q5UbsFOUlo

Tracking the Hurricanes: 2017 Part Two: Irma, Maria, Nate
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=U4MbrlZOtVM
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Daniel B. on May 04, 2018, 01:27:29 PM
A cooler Atlantic may suppress tropical activity this year.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-05-03-tropical-atlantic-water-temperatures-may-2018-hurricane-season (https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-05-03-tropical-atlantic-water-temperatures-may-2018-hurricane-season)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: FishOutofWater on May 04, 2018, 09:57:52 PM
There's been an exceptional amount of heat transfer from the tropics to the mid latitudes in the Atlantic basin and it was a very cold mid winter offshore of Europe. Deepwater formation in the Labrador sea got cranked up in late February and was intense in March according to the Mercator Ocean profile.

All in all, expect a slow start to the Atlantic season because it's going to take months to build up the heat, but don't be surprised if there's an intense burst of hurricanes in September and October. With all the heat in the temperate and far north Atlantic, the fall cool down will come late.

One of the consequences of low September sea ice levels may be a longer, later Atlantic hurricane season and more blocking highs in the fall over Greenland.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 05, 2018, 07:02:20 PM
Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh camps await new danger: rain
Quote
KUTUPALONG, Bangladesh (AP) — The Rohingya refugees have escaped soldiers and gunfire. They have escaped mobs that stormed through their villages, killing and raping and burning. They have fled Myanmar, their homeland, to find shelter in sprawling refugee camps in neighboring Bangladesh.

Now there's a new danger: rain.

The annual monsoon will soon sweep through the immense camps where some 700,000 Rohingya Muslims have lived since last year, when they poured across the border in search of safety. The clusters of bamboo and plastic huts, built along endless waves of steep hills, are now facing a deluge that, in an average year, dumps anywhere from 40 to 60 centimeters (16 to 24 inches) of rain per month.

"I will not be able to light a fire. The wells will flood and I won't be able to get water. The outhouses will be destroyed. The house might also break down," sobbed Rahana Khatun, 45, who fled Myanmar last year with her husband and five children. "What will happen to us then?" ...
https://apnews.com/amp/1771ebecb99d45d28511a28d7bed044b
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 06, 2018, 03:15:58 AM
1. Maria caused 18 times more damage in the U.S. territories than the second-costliest hurricane ...

10 Jaw-Dropping Findings from the NHC's Final Hurricane Maria Report
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-04-10-hurricane-maria-final-report-national-hurricane-center
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 09, 2018, 05:38:35 PM
“This map shows global #tropical cyclone tracks from 1848-2013. The red circle shows where a subtropical cyclone appears to have formed this week off the Chilean coast. Bizarre. (Map: NOAA) [article:] https://wxch.nl/2Ink2mi  ”

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/994199808532406273
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 14, 2018, 05:58:09 PM
“4 named storms have formed in the Gulf of Mexico in May on record (since 1851).  National #Hurricane Center has 40% chance of tropical/subtropical development in eastern Gulf in next five days. ”

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/996028118010769410
Satellite GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 22, 2018, 04:56:57 PM
“THE CLOCK IS TICKING”: INSIDE THE WORST U.S. MARITIME DISASTER IN DECADES
A recording salvaged from three miles deep tells the story of the doomed “El Faro,” a cargo ship engulfed by Hurricane Joaquin.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/04/inside-el-faro-the-worst-us-maritime-disaster-in-decades
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Daniel B. on May 23, 2018, 02:47:00 PM
“4 named storms have formed in the Gulf of Mexico in May on record (since 1851).  National #Hurricane Center has 40% chance of tropical/subtropical development in eastern Gulf in next five days. ”

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/996028118010769410
Satellite GIF at the link.

Since 1880, the tropical Atlantic has averaged five tropical storms every 40 years, roughly one every eight years.  The last year to have a storm form in May was 2008.  Only four have grown to hurricane strength, averaging one every 36 years.  The last Atlantic basin hurricane was in 1970.  Only one May hurricane exceeded category one status; Able in 1951 reached category 3. 

Historically, May was more active.  From 1900-1960, eleven tropical storms formed, two of which grew to hurricane strength.  Since 1960, only three tropical storms have formed, one reaching hurricane status.  We actually overdue for a May storm.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/earlyseason.asp (https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/earlyseason.asp)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on May 23, 2018, 03:58:11 PM
Hurricane in the Indian Ocean (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/) is going to Arabian peninsula.

As of 12:00 UTC May 23, 2018:
Location: 12.0°N 56.0°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 mb
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 23, 2018, 07:56:48 PM
Sagar Pounds Somalia; New Cyclone May Threaten Oman
Quote
Somalia's strongest and westernmost tropical cyclone on record

Only three tropical cyclones have tracked into the western Gulf of Aden in historical records dating to 1966. Sagar’s landfall was the westernmost of the three, and its top sustained winds at landfall were the highest.

Another tropical cyclone may affect the Arabian Sea this week
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/sagar-pounds-somalia-new-cyclone-may-threaten-oman
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on May 23, 2018, 09:04:16 PM

Another tropical cyclone may affect the Arabian Sea this week
JTWC says not maybe but definite - http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on May 23, 2018, 09:12:49 PM
Something for Mar-el-Largo?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 23, 2018, 09:13:15 PM
This may be rushing things a bit.  But weather watchers have had their eye on this potential storm for a week.

NHC Atlantic Ops:  800 AM: new Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued- There is a 60% chance of a subtropical or tropical depression forming in the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Heavy rain is the main threat for now. 
Full details: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 “
Quote
... a subtropical
or tropical depression could form this weekend over the eastern or
central Gulf of Mexico.  Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is possible across western Cuba and the Cayman Islands
during the next few days, and over much of Florida and the
northern Gulf Coast during the weekend.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/999258984950501376
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: be cause on May 23, 2018, 09:17:55 PM
re the above .. if you like a beautiful storm in an unusual place .. check out today's worldview of the Arabian Gulf , b.c.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 23, 2018, 09:30:52 PM
Florida has been remarkably rainy over the past week, so this much additional rain (plus a holiday weekend) suggest dangerous conditions ahead from even a “minor” tropical storm.

Image: Next 7 days precipitation forecast.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on May 24, 2018, 12:33:39 AM
re the above .. if you like a beautiful storm in an unusual place .. check out today's worldview of the Arabian Gulf , b.c.
Storm Mekunu is really beautiful... It is getting stronger. Winds will reach about 50 m/s. Quite rare cyclone power for this place.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Daniel B. on May 24, 2018, 02:59:19 PM
Florida has been remarkably rainy over the past week, so this much additional rain (plus a holiday weekend) suggest dangerous conditions ahead from even a “minor” tropical storm.

Image: Next 7 days precipitation forecast.

The recent rain in Florida was much needed, as they were suffering through a mild drought.  The US DoA just recently downgraded Florida to drought-free.  The rest of the gulf coast is still rain-starved, and in need of relief.  Any tropical storm will generate localized "dangerous conditions."  However, this will not be exacerbated by recent weather conditions.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 24, 2018, 03:41:12 PM
“While it's not uncommon for tropical systems to form in May...It is uncommon to see one develop in the Gulf as is currently forecast by @NWSNHC

The only other one was Arlene in 1959”
https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/999250720279973888

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 24, 2018, 03:42:36 PM
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: FrostKing70 on May 24, 2018, 05:44:37 PM
I am curious why we don't see tropical systems in the two areas shown on the attached.  Why everywhere else there is open water far enough away from the equator to generate spin, but not here?

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: mitch on May 24, 2018, 06:07:43 PM
You never see hurricanes in the 10 deg S region off South America because that is in the the east Pacific cold tongue, the currents that bring polar waters into the region.  Sea surface temperatures are too cold to maintain strong convection. Currently at 90W, the 10degS temperature is 25, versus 29 at 10degN. I would expect that the same is true of the Atlantic. 
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: FrostKing70 on May 24, 2018, 06:26:02 PM
Current temperature data
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 24, 2018, 10:01:17 PM
In 2018, Sara replaces 2012's Sandy.

The 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Names List Includes One New Name
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-05-24-2018-atlantic-hurricane-season-names-list
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 24, 2018, 10:04:21 PM
I am curious why we don't see tropical systems in the two areas shown on the attached.  Why everywhere else there is open water far enough away from the equator to generate spin, but not here?


More here, in case you missed it:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2237.msg153567.html#msg153567
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on May 25, 2018, 09:58:49 AM
Last information (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/) about storm Mekunu.

As of 06:00 UTC May 25, 2018:
Location: 15.7°N 54.6°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 960 mb

Location is 150 km SSE from Salalah and the storm is moving right to this city.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on May 25, 2018, 10:55:38 AM
Cyclone Mekunu is going to do some damage.

Go to robertscribbler.com for a discussion on how unusual this and the previous hurricane in the area are, and on the potential impact - which could be very high.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 25, 2018, 01:46:07 PM
Tropical Cyclone Mekunu will make landfall within hours in southwest Oman.
Mekunu will likely landfall at Category 2 intensity, a first in the satellite era in southwest Oman.

“Wind, rain already lashing the coast as #Tropical Cyclone #Mekunu nears historic Cat. 2 landfall in southwest #Oman. “
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/999973855362932736
Image below.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu Nears Historic Category 2 Landfall Near Salalah, Oman With Life-Threatening Flooding, Damaging Winds, Storm Surge
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-05-23-tropical-cyclone-mekunu-oman-yemen-arabian-sea
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on May 25, 2018, 07:32:32 PM
Mekunu will likely landfall at Category 2 intensity, a first in the satellite era in southwest Oman.
According to the latest data, Mekunu reached Category 3.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 25, 2018, 07:51:03 PM
To clarify, both Gonu (2007) and Phet (2010) made landfall in Oman at Category 3 strength but they hit in the eastern part of the country..
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on May 25, 2018, 07:59:49 PM
Looks like the US south coast is going to get it's first cat 1 hurricane of the year near New Orleans.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 25, 2018, 08:32:44 PM
“FIVE YEARS of rain in ONE DAY. This is not normal.”

“Mekunu is about 12 hours from a direct hit on Salalah, Oman -- a city of 200,000 people.
Sustained winds currently estimated at 115mph (185kph). About 15 inches (400mm) of total rainfall expected -- five years' worth.”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1000068638077046784
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 25, 2018, 09:07:57 PM
“FIVE YEARS of rain in ONE DAY. This is not normal.”

“Mekunu is about 12 hours from a direct hit on Salalah, Oman -- a city of 200,000 people.
Sustained winds currently estimated at 115mph (185kph). About 15 inches (400mm) of total rainfall expected -- five years' worth.”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1000068638077046784
Image below.
Is western Indian Ocean/Arabian Sea starting to produce cyclones more often, or is it just my imagination? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Chapala was just three years ago and these have been rare systems there previously. Probably it's still impossible to say either way and I don't remember anything special of climate models about this area.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 25, 2018, 09:45:11 PM
“In the past 120 yrs, just 5 hurricane-strength cyclones have made landfall in Oman—1898, 1959, 2007, 2010—and today. (Chapala, in 2015, was the last to hit the Arabian Peninsula—and the only one ever to hit Yemen)
So... 6 total in this part of the world, 4 in the past 11 years.”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1000069103158267905

“By the end of the century, @MIT research suggests that this trend toward more frequent cyclones in the Arabian Peninsula could spread to the Persian Gulf -- where there has never been a hurricane-strength storm in recorded history.
http://news.mit.edu/2015/grey-swan-cyclones-storm-surge-0831  “

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1000070894340005888

Live blog from Oman -- the latest on #MekunuCyclone:
http://timesofoman.com/article/135085 “

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1000072776793968640
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 25, 2018, 10:02:31 PM
And here’s the first Atlantic system of the season:  Alberto.

“2pm Tropical Update: Alberto has been nearly stationary but a general slow motion toward the north is expected through the weekend, followed by a northwest turn by Monday. Widespread rainfall amounts 4-8 inches will be possible across the FL Keys this weekend. #keyswx #flwx”
https://twitter.com/nwskeywest/status/1000074916383735808
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on May 25, 2018, 10:43:09 PM
Mekunu notched up an extra 10 knots to 100 knots (125 kmh) of sustained winds, gusts to 125 knots (230 kmh), and wave height 32 feet, 10 metres, before hitting land.

JTWC  says:-
Quote
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 53.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 27 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 251715Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A COMPACT CORE WITH A 7-NM EYE. THE
POSITION IS BASED ON THE CLEARLY VISIBLE EYE IN BOTH INFRARED AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AGAIN ASSESSED AT 100
KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS),
SLIGHTLY BELOW A 251428Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 110 KTS. TC 02A IS NOW
LESS THAN 30NM FROM THE OMANI COAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
SALALAH ARE INDICATING INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TRANSITIONING TO
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 45 KT RANGE FOR SUSTAINED WINDS, GUSTING UP
TO 55-60 KTS. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR 26/00Z AND
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND. IT HAS ALREADY BEGUN A NORTHWESTWARD
TURN AS A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. AFTER
LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE DRY,
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z,
261500Z AND 262100Z.//
NNNN
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Susan Anderson on May 25, 2018, 11:25:28 PM
For updated information on tropical storms, extreme weather, and other environmental issues, I recommend Wunderground's Category 6 articles and comment sections (main articles by Jeff Masters and Bob Henson, comments by meteorologists and weather-interested others.

Quote
We’ll have a new post on Alberto by 6 pm EDT. See our post* from earlier Friday morning for an update on Cyclone Mekenu, which was nearing a potentially disastrous landfall in Oman as a Category 3 storm.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/subtropical-storm-alberto-forms-western-caribbean (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/subtropical-storm-alberto-forms-western-caribbean)

*https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/category-3-mekunu-making-potentially-devastating-landfall-oman (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/category-3-mekunu-making-potentially-devastating-landfall-oman)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 26, 2018, 09:24:18 PM
U.S. Gulf-state governors are taking STS Alberto seriously.

Florida, Mississippi Governors Declare States of Emergency as Subtropical Storm Alberto Nears, Gulf Coast Prepares
https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/2018-05-25-subtropical-storm-alberto-impacts-preparations
“New Orleanians were expected to stock their emergency kits this weekend as the city's residents enjoy a partial tax break on any supplies they buy for hurricane preparedness, the Associated Press reported. The tax break applies for up to $1,500 of qualifying supplies purchased Saturday and Sunday; residents will pay 3 percent tax on those items instead of the usual 5 percent, the report added.”

NWS Key West notes:
“13.08 inches of rain have fallen at #KeyWest so far in May, already surpassing the monthly record of 13.01 inches, set in May 1904.  Therefore, May 2018 is now the wettest May *ON RECORD* at #KeyWest, with 6 days left in the month. Rainfall records for #KeyWest date back to 1871.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/nwskeywest/status/1000180168693108738
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: oren on May 26, 2018, 11:05:52 PM
From the nitpickers camp, 100 knots are 185 km/h. And I really hope the Oman population gets out of this cyclone with as little damage as possible.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Xulonn on May 27, 2018, 01:46:18 AM
I'm a retired American expat who has lived in Boquete, Panama for nearly 6.5 years.  Boquete sits in a rainforest valley at about 3,200' (975m) elevation on the eastern slopes of 11,400' (3,474m) Volcan Baru, the tallest mountain in Panama.  We are also about halfway down from the ~8,000' (2,438m) peaks of the Cordillera de Talamanca mountain range - the "continental divide" that separates us from the Caribbean side. 

I've been trying to get a handle on our climate/weather by monitoring the local Weather Underground Palmira/Boquete PWS (Personal Weather Station), which is owned by a friend who lives just up the hill from my casita.  I also monitor the nullschool dynamic global wind map, Atlantic tropics synoptic chart, and satellite IR cloud images.  It appears that the north-south seasonal movement of the ITCZ and it's Monsoon Trough is not the only factor that controls our rainy season (April - November) and dry season (December - March) . 

The biggest clue for me for when we get a really wet spell is the "bending" of the trade winds to the northwest rather than blasting over the mountains from Bocas del Toro on the Caribbean is a major factor.  I think it is possible that if the patterns of the number and intensity tropical of tropical cyclones originating in the western Caribbean changes due to AGW/CC, that will affect weather patterns and climate here in central America.

The trades in the western Caribbean have been flowing to the NW for a couple of weeks now, and are now feeding STS Alberto, which is even drawing in Pacific moisture over Nicaragua.  Pacific moisture is flowing over Panama from the SW, bringing heavy rains and T-storms almost every day lately.   

In the past two weeks, we've had over 30" (768mm) of rain here, but fortunately, with the rugged topography, porous volcanic soil in this area, and many big roadside drainage ditches, we barely have puddles, much less flooding.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 27, 2018, 05:43:11 PM
Cyclone shuts Oman water production plant
Quote
Sembcorp Salalah Water and Power Co SSPW.OM, which operates an electricity generation and seawater desalination plant in Oman, said its water production plant had been temporarily shut down because of rough seas as a result of a tropical storm.

Cyclone Mekunu hit southern Yemen and the coast of neighboring Oman over the weekend, leaving several dead and others missing.

The company said its preliminary assessment is that the impact is not expected to be material, however the “total impact of the cyclone on plant operations cannot yet be precisely assessed at this point in time.” ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oman-weather-companies/cyclone-shuts-sembcorp-salalah-water-production-plant-idUSKCN1IS04L

Image notes:  General view after Cyclone Mekunu in Salalah, Oman May 26 2018. Oman News Agency/Handout via REUTERS
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 28, 2018, 11:29:52 PM
“FRONTLINE and NPR investigate the humanitarian and economic crisis in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria, examining how the federal response, Wall Street and years of neglect have left the island struggling to survive.”

FEMA’s response. Restoring the power grid. “Blue roofs.”  The history of Puerto Rico debt bonds.

Video, 54 minutes.  “Blackout in Puerto Rico”

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/blackout-in-puerto-rico/

Other related videos also at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on May 28, 2018, 11:34:15 PM
While I appreciate the effort by organizations like NPR, I think the biggest problem is the state government, not the federal response or wall street. No amount of federal dollars can overcome the inefficiency and corruption of the Puertorican government.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 28, 2018, 11:55:14 PM
While I appreciate the effort by organizations like NPR, I think the biggest problem is the state government, not the federal response or wall street. No amount of federal dollars can overcome the inefficiency and corruption of the Puertorican government.

But the video makes it pretty clear that Wall Street was actively encouraging PR’s bad financial management.  If, instead, hard choices about the debt had been made years ago, PR would be in a different situation today. (Maybe better, maybe worse.)  Regardless, FEMA is supposed to be ready and able to help, and it clearly was not.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on May 29, 2018, 01:14:59 AM
Quote
But the video makes it pretty clear that Wall Street was actively encouraging PR’s bad financial management.
 

It takes two to tango. The politicians that made these deals with wall street made millions out of them.

Quote
If, instead, hard choices about the debt had been made years ago, PR would be in a different situation today. (Maybe better, maybe worse.)

I've been following the debt decisions of the Puertorican government for years. What hey did is exactly the same thing world, nation and local leaders are doing with climate change. They knew the debt was a problem and it was not sustainable, but because it was a problem for the future they kicked the can down the road. 

Now the people pay the price while the ones who failed in their duties live well out of the money they stole.  That's where the analogy breaks tho. With climate change there will be no winners. The ones that failed their responsibilities will pay as much as the people.

Quote
Regardless, FEMA is supposed to be ready and able to help, and it clearly was not.

No one was prepared for something like this.Hopefully the next go around will be much better and far into the future. Sadly SSTA's and crazy jetstreams indicate the next one is probably around the corner.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on May 29, 2018, 07:10:01 PM
Puerto Rico hurricane death toll 70 times higher than official government estimate, says study

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/389689-study-puerto-rico-hurricane-death-toll-was-70-times-higher-than

Quote
The study found that the mortality rate increased by 62 percent in the final months of 2017 when compared to the same time period in 2016. In total, the researchers calculated that 4,645 more people died in the final months of 2017 than in the previous time frame a year prior.

The Puerto Rican government says 64. They were very confident on the low number of deaths and their decision making processed followed the guidance given by their number. Judging by what I saw, it was very obviously more than 64.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 29, 2018, 11:55:45 PM
Alberto

“Not something you see every day -- in fact this is officially the first tropical or subtropical cyclone in Alabama in May during the radar era or in the record prior (per https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/index.html ; historical data caveats apply) #Alberto #alwx ... “
https://twitter.com/stuostro/status/1001507631960350721
Radar GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 30, 2018, 01:13:09 PM
Puerto Rico hurricane death toll 70 times higher than official government estimate, says study
...
The Puerto Rican government says 64. They were very confident on the low number of deaths and their decision making processed followed the guidance given by their number. Judging by what I saw, it was very obviously more than 64.


The top levels of government were determined to put the best possible spin on this tragedy, to save face.  But everyone on the ground knew things were very, very bad.
Quote
As a storm, Maria achieved a lot of “worsts”. It was one of the strongest hurricanes ever to make landfall in the United States. It caused the largest blackout in U.S. history and the second largest in world history. The loss of power meant many Puerto Ricans had to struggle for basic necessities — the storm shuttered hospitals and restricted access to fresh food and clean water for millions of people. In some cases, people resorted to drinking water from streams contaminated with toxic waste and raw sewage — simply because there was no other option. The result was one of the worst humanitarian crises in U.S. history.

“Interruption of medical care was the primary cause of sustained high mortality rates in the months after the hurricane,” wrote the study’s authors. Hundreds of thousands of people have left the island since the storm, one of the largest mass migrations in recent U.S. history — a possible preview of the kinds of shocks that might occur more frequently as climate change supercharges storms.

These conditions have been widely reported for months, but the federal government’s response has yet to match the scale of the challenge — leading to preventable deaths. The results of the new study “underscore the inattention of the U.S. government to the frail infrastructure of Puerto Rico,” according to its authors.

On his only visit to post-storm Puerto Rico back in October, President Donald Trump praised his administration’s response, saying that Puerto Ricans should be “proud” that the death toll wasn’t as large as “a real catastrophe like Katrina.”

The new study means that Maria is now the deadliest hurricane since 1900 in the United States, when a hurricane killed 8,000 people in Galveston, Texas. Hurricane Katrina’s official death toll was 1,833 people, though follow-up surveys conducted in the years following the 2005 storm showed that hundreds more likely died. There have been previous efforts at estimating the true scale of Maria’s death toll, but the Harvard survey is the most comprehensive so far. The truth is, we’ll probably never know exactly how many people died because of Hurricane Maria.

In a series of tweets in Spanish and English, San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz, responded to the study’s findings. “It took too long to understand the need for an appropriate response was NOT about politics but about saving lives,” she wrote. “Now will the government believe it?”
https://grist.org/article/hurricane-maria-was-so-much-worse-than-we-thought/amp/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on May 30, 2018, 02:49:29 PM
Quote
The top levels of government were determined to put the best possible spin on this tragedy, to save face.

Correct, but I don't believe they could have given an accurate number even if they wanted to. There was complete chaos and complete breakdown of communications. That alone should have thrown doubt into even the most accurate and well functioning bureaucracies.  The correct attitude should have been "we just don't know" and from there estimate damages based on other disasters of similar magnitude until information got sorted out.

However enter Donald Trump, a fool blinded by life long privilege. He probably requested the bad news to be suppressed because in his pitiful experience a positive attitude solves all problems like magic. And that is true in the world of privilege, but not in the natural world. Where I bet trump corruption really shine through is in the contract awards. I bet ya all his little corrupt friends got all the inside scoops to guarantee contracts.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on May 30, 2018, 08:46:22 PM
Looks like the asian typhoon season is kicking in. But still a week to go.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on May 30, 2018, 08:48:03 PM
Archimid, is the entire island already having power ?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on May 30, 2018, 11:03:35 PM
Yes, I think greater than 99% of it. There are occasional blackouts, but they are just part of the routine.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 31, 2018, 01:18:30 AM
Alberto:

“There’s a tropical cyclone about to make landfall on Chicago. ...”
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1001935236643553281

    “Only 8 known tropical cyclones have passed within 100 miles of where #Alberto is at as of 1930Z today. None have ever passed over #LakeMichigan, but the closest was Candy 1968 (~40mi away). Will Alberto be the first to make lakefall there?? @UMiamiRSMAS @capitalweather ”
     https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1001909048302764033
     Radar GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 31, 2018, 07:10:41 PM
Unusual to see a tropical system survive a trip this far from the coast.  Speaks to the record warmth recently in the midwest, and the very large, very moist air mass pumped up from the south.

NWS WPC:  “After spending two days over land and traveled more than 700 miles inland, #Alberto continues to maintain a compact and well-defined circulation with a symmetric rainbands spiraling around the center. ”
https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1001937166421905408
Video at the link: satellite follows the storm from the Gulf coast through Wednesday.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on May 31, 2018, 07:18:29 PM
Wow. How is that possible? What is feeding it?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: ghoti on May 31, 2018, 08:48:24 PM
It was never a warm core tropical storm so the usual behaviour at landfall wasn't seen. The forces driving the storm continued as expected and predicted.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: aperson on May 31, 2018, 10:53:51 PM
It was never a warm core tropical storm so the usual behaviour at landfall wasn't seen. The forces driving the storm continued as expected and predicted.

It certainly was a warm core tropical storm at some points during its lifespan. NHC classified it as tropical around TN (see: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAWPCAT1+shtml/300235.shtml) and had it degrade into an extratropical cyclone and subsequent frontal wave over Michigan.

(https://i.imgur.com/EAMCIGd.png)
(source: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/consensusgfs/fcst/archive/18053112/20.html#diag1)


This tweet from TropicalTidbits maintainer Levi Cowan provides some insight into how Alberto was able to maintain a warm core structure across land so effectively:

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1001894726633652224

"The maintenance of #Alberto over #Indiana is pretty neat. Model analysis shows a vertical profile with moist, daytime-heated boundary layer, CAPE, deep moisture, and uniform zero-shear flow throughout the troposphere. This environment can actually sustain a tropical cyclone."
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: be cause on June 01, 2018, 03:16:38 AM
I notice something tropical heading for Texas @ 14 days out in the GFS forecast tonight . Something like Alberto was often appearing on GFS from this far out. Worth keeping an eye out for ? b.c.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 02, 2018, 04:22:41 AM
Hurricane season starts today, and Trump still hasn’t learned from his deadliest blunder — Hurricane Maria
Quote
...And with Hurricane Season 2018 beginning today, there’s still uncertainty about how prepared this administration is for another storm. Puerto Rico’s power authority announced yesterday that it may take another two months to get power back completely on the island, and officials say it’s likely that the electrical grid will crash again with the next hurricane.

On top of that, FEMA is going through a “reorganization,” Bloomberg reported last week, and several key leadership roles are still vacant or temporarily filled.

“What the impacts from the 2017 disasters show is that there is also still work to do in order to build a culture of preparedness across the country at all levels of government, including improved resilience among our critical infrastructure,” FEMA wrote to Grist in an email.
https://grist.org/article/hurricane-season-starts-today-and-trump-still-hasnt-learned-from-his-deadliest-blunder-hurricane-maria/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on June 02, 2018, 04:42:13 AM
SO they finally released a bit of mortality data. I did a little something. To this day they stand by 64. This was obvious instantly.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on June 02, 2018, 12:59:46 PM
SO they finally released a bit of mortality data. I did a little something. To this day they stand by 64. This was obvious instantly.

This was obvious instantly insanity.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on June 02, 2018, 03:08:46 PM
Yeah, that too, but it was painfully obvious the instant the winds stopped and the sun came out. How this people completely missed that and stood by their numbers defies my understanding.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 03, 2018, 01:06:41 AM
”We have decreased our forecast and now believe that 2018 will have approximately average activity. While we still do not anticipate a significant El Niño during the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, most of the North Atlantic has continued to anomalously cool over the past two months. The eastern and central tropical Atlantic is cooler than normal at present. We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”

Why Experts Just Changed Their Forecasts About 2018 Hurricane Season Activity
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2018/06/02/why-experts-just-changed-their-forecasts-about-2018-hurricane-season-activity/
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: be cause on June 03, 2018, 02:56:09 AM
I thought no self respecting major hurricane would want any of the names on offer this year .. b.c
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 03, 2018, 12:57:09 PM
“We have about 11,000 projects underway in Puerto Rico”
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1003161965533937667
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: oren on June 03, 2018, 01:06:36 PM
Amazing.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on June 03, 2018, 03:16:01 PM
There goes the little objectivity I had left for Tesla. Now I'm forced to go from Elon fanboy to High Prophet of the Church of Elon.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on June 03, 2018, 03:43:23 PM
There goes the little objectivity I had left for Tesla. Now I'm forced to go from Elon fanboy to High Prophet of the Church of Elon.

No - not necessary. You could instead think about the Victorian principle of "enlightened self-interest" which many of the earlier English industrial pioneers followed, e.g.s Arkwright, Rowntree, Cadbury, often followed later by American industrial pioneers such as Henry Parsons Crowell (Quaker Oats) and Will Keith Kellogg to name but a few. Most were devout Christians of the protestant variety or members of the Society of Friends (Quakers).

To use modern parlance these guys were into win-win (as opposed to Trumpism - I win, you are shafted). They built good workers' housing, schools, health facilities etc knowing that the better the work force and "the condition of the people" the better their profits in the long-run..

Musk is following that path - at relatively little cost these highly effective interventions can only do his business a lot of good - again in the longer-term. It is a pity he is a rare bird - the demand for instant results fuelling greed and stupidity in most cases.

As such, he should be applauded and congratulated - but please not worshipped.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: magnamentis on June 03, 2018, 04:44:19 PM
There goes the little objectivity I had left for Tesla. Now I'm forced to go from Elon fanboy to High Prophet of the Church of Elon.

No - not necessary. You could instead think about the Victorian principle of "enlightened self-interest" which many of the earlier English industrial pioneers followed, e.g.s Arkwright, Rowntree, Cadbury, often followed later by American industrial pioneers such as Henry Parsons Crowell (Quaker Oats) and Will Keith Kellogg to name but a few. Most were devout Christians of the protestant variety or members of the Society of Friends (Quakers).

To use modern parlance these guys were into win-win (as opposed to Trumpism - I win, you are shafted). They built good workers' housing, schools, health facilities etc knowing that the better the work force and "the condition of the people" the better their profits in the long-run..

Musk is following that path - at relatively little cost these highly effective interventions can only do his business a lot of good - again in the longer-term. It is a pity he is a rare bird - the demand for instant results fuelling greed and stupidity in most cases.

As such, he should be applauded and congratulated - but please not worshipped.

one of the best post since long, all said in short, wish i could keep things short like that LOL
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on June 03, 2018, 04:46:01 PM
Of course. I understand that this is not philanthropy, this is just really smart business that just happens to be great for the common good. I just jest because this makes me so happy. I also acknowledge publicly that this will affect my objectivity with the hopes to keep myself in check.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: be cause on June 03, 2018, 06:33:40 PM
He came for the hurricane and found Elongate .. b.c.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 04, 2018, 12:34:26 PM
Of course. I understand that this is not philanthropy, this is just really smart business that just happens to be great for the common good. I just jest because this makes me so happy. I also acknowledge publicly that this will affect my objectivity with the hopes to keep myself in check.

Archimid, your support is appreciated!

 “Just wanted to say thanks to all Tesla supporters. I damn well love you.”
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/998786412970369024
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 04, 2018, 12:38:40 PM
“A new review of global data on hurricanes shows that since 1980, the number of storms with winds stronger than 200 kilometers per hour (124 mph, or a strong Category 3) have doubled.... “
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02062018/hurricane-season-2018-noaa-storm-forecast-global-warming-atlantic-ocean-temperature-new-category-6

https://mobile.twitter.com/rahmstorf/status/1003277981471596544


But, Hurricane Patricia would be Category 7.  Or 8.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/657526655691395072
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Daniel B. on June 04, 2018, 03:24:54 PM
The article is true, but highly misleading.  Yes, the number has doubled since 1980.  However, they have chosen to start their analysis from a time of relatively low hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin.  NOAA has data back to 1944, and an analysis for the full 75 years indicates no overall trend in major hurricane activity.  Around 1950, the Atlantic basin averaged 4.5 major hurricanes annually.  That number dropped to less than two during the 70s and 80s.  The number of major hurricanes more than doubled from this low to over four annually during the mid 2000s.  Over the past decade, the average annual number of major hurricanes has fallen back down to 2.5.  By carefully choosing their start and end dates, they arrived at their stated conclusion.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 04, 2018, 04:12:40 PM
“The article is true, but highly misleading.  Yes, the number has doubled since 1980. ...”

 It’s not just the number of strong storms being evaluated. It is the increased strength of those storms, and the increasingly rapid speed of their intensification.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Daniel B. on June 04, 2018, 05:04:06 PM
“The article is true, but highly misleading.  Yes, the number has doubled since 1980. ...”

 It’s not just the number of strong storms being evaluated. It is the increased strength of those storms, and the increasingly rapid speed of their intensification.

Yes.  Since 1980!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on June 04, 2018, 06:48:32 PM
If you look at the link, it's about hurricanes in the Atlantic. And i think there is a very clear trend. More big hurricanes.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane_season
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 04, 2018, 09:41:28 PM
“The article is true, but highly misleading.  Yes, the number has doubled since 1980. ...”

 It’s not just the number of strong storms being evaluated. It is the increased strength of those storms, and the increasingly rapid speed of their intensification.

Yes.  Since 1980!

Please show a source of data accurate enough to perform a statistically significant analysis of these factors before 1980.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Daniel B. on June 04, 2018, 11:57:24 PM
“The article is true, but highly misleading.  Yes, the number has doubled since 1980. ...”

 It’s not just the number of strong storms being evaluated. It is the increased strength of those storms, and the increasingly rapid speed of their intensification.

Yes.  Since 1980!

Please show a source of data accurate enough to perform a statistically significant analysis of these factors before 1980.

Sure.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/noaa-releases-2017-hurricane-outlook-atlantic-ocean (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/noaa-releases-2017-hurricane-outlook-atlantic-ocean)

https://chapelboro.com/town-square/columns/common-science/hurricanes-part-iii-frequency-and-global-warming (https://chapelboro.com/town-square/columns/common-science/hurricanes-part-iii-frequency-and-global-warming)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 05, 2018, 03:26:07 PM
“The article is true, but highly misleading.  Yes, the number has doubled since 1980. ...”

 It’s not just the number of strong storms being evaluated. It is the increased strength of those storms, and the increasingly rapid speed of their intensification.

Yes.  Since 1980!

Please show a source of data accurate enough to perform a statistically significant analysis of these factors before 1980.

Sure.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/noaa-releases-2017-hurricane-outlook-atlantic-ocean (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/noaa-releases-2017-hurricane-outlook-atlantic-ocean)

https://chapelboro.com/town-square/columns/common-science/hurricanes-part-iii-frequency-and-global-warming (https://chapelboro.com/town-square/columns/common-science/hurricanes-part-iii-frequency-and-global-warming)

 NOT the NUMBER of storms. Your links provide NO data on precise strength of each storm, or the rapidity of their intensification — which are the factors of the original study and what I requested.  The study I posted uses data only available in the years since satellites and hurricane hunter flights made it possible.  So, saying they cherry-picked their data by only using data since 1980 is a false accusation.
 
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Daniel B. on June 05, 2018, 05:20:37 PM
“The article is true, but highly misleading.  Yes, the number has doubled since 1980. ...”

 It’s not just the number of strong storms being evaluated. It is the increased strength of those storms, and the increasingly rapid speed of their intensification.

Yes.  Since 1980!

Please show a source of data accurate enough to perform a statistically significant analysis of these factors before 1980.

Sure.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/noaa-releases-2017-hurricane-outlook-atlantic-ocean (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/noaa-releases-2017-hurricane-outlook-atlantic-ocean)

https://chapelboro.com/town-square/columns/common-science/hurricanes-part-iii-frequency-and-global-warming (https://chapelboro.com/town-square/columns/common-science/hurricanes-part-iii-frequency-and-global-warming)

 NOT the NUMBER of storms. Your links provide NO data on precise strength of each storm, or the rapidity of their intensification — which are the factors of the original study and what I requested.  The study I posted uses data only available in the years since satellites and hurricane hunter flights made it possible.  So, saying they cherry-picked their data by only using data since 1980 is a false accusation.

That is true with regards to that study.  However, other available data shows that the start of their study was a quiet period of hurricane activity, which affected their conclusions.  I never said they cherry-picked.  Rather, I stated that their data was skewed, due to the dataset they used.

Historically, the data does not indicate that hurricanes are getting stronger.  On average, over the past century a category 5 hurricane has formed once every 3.3 years.  We have had three over the past decade, exactly average.   The 2000s decade saw 8 such storms, followed by the 1930s with 6, and the 1960s with 4.  There appears little evidence that wind speed is increasing in these storms.  The highest winds measured were 190 mph by hurricanes Camille in 1969 and Allen in 1980.  Three storms reached 185; Wilma in 2005, Gilbert in 1988, and the Labor Day hurricane of 1935.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: ghoti on June 05, 2018, 05:51:48 PM
Now you switch to counting category 5 storms only when major storms are cat 3+. Why do I suspect the numbers don't work as well if you count major storms? And only Atlantic storms are considered?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Daniel B. on June 05, 2018, 06:44:35 PM
Now you switch to counting category 5 storms only when major storms are cat 3+. Why do I suspect the numbers don't work as well if you count major storms? And only Atlantic storms are considered?

Probably because only the Atlantic showed the increase over the time period that they sought.  I already showed that the numbers don't work out as well for major storms, if the time period before their dataset is included.  All in all, the report is trying to make a claim that is not justified.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: ghoti on June 06, 2018, 10:03:47 PM
Hurricanes slow their roll around the world
Storms' slowdown means more rain, and potentially more damage, for populated areas.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05324-5 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05324-5).

The study, published on 6 June in Nature, is the first to analyse hurricane speeds globally. It finds that the speed at which tropical cyclones moved across the planet slowed by about 10% between 1949 and 2016.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: aperson on June 07, 2018, 05:23:54 AM
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05324-5 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05324-5).

Good read. Here's figure 3 which tells the story. Effect size was significant over land but was not significant over water, and effect strength is different in each basin.

(https://i.imgur.com/29CJB5z.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: sidd on June 07, 2018, 10:14:13 AM
Perhaps slower motion of hurricances is related to the weakend gradient between polar and tropical temperatures as poles warm quicker.

sidd
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sleepy on June 12, 2018, 05:04:16 PM
Nice article by Masters.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/extreme-hurricane-rainfall-expected-increase-warmer-world (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/extreme-hurricane-rainfall-expected-increase-warmer-world)
Quote
Conclusion

Though there is still much work to be done quantifying the future risk from rainier hurricanes in a warmer world, the four papers published linking the catastrophic floods of Hurricane Harvey to global warming should serve as a strong wake-up call that we may already be experiencing a heightened risk of such disasters due to human-caused climate change. It doesn’t take much of a shift in the peak of a bell-shaped curve encompassing the range of precipitation amounts we expect from future storms to cause very significant changes in the odds of low-probability, high impact events at the tail end of the distribution, and the flood defense systems of the world are designed for the rains of the 20th-century climate, not the new more extreme rainfalls we are already observing in the warming 21st-century climate.

The conclusion of van Oldenborgh et al. 2017, Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017 is worth paying attention to: “And while fortifying Houston to fully withstand the impact of an event as extreme as Hurricane Harvey may not be economically feasible, it is critical that information regarding the increasing risk of extreme rainfall events in general should be part of the discussion about future improvements to Houston's flood protection system.”
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 15, 2018, 09:05:11 PM
FEMA Blamed Delays In Puerto Rico On Maria; Agency Records Tell Another Story
Quote
...FEMA and the federal government failed on multiple fronts to help the devastated island recover.

NPR and the PBS series Frontline examined hundreds of pages of internal documents and emails. Rather than a well-orchestrated effort, they paint a picture of a relief agency in chaos, struggling with key contracts, basic supplies and even its own workforce.”
...
Hours after NPR and FRONTLINE published these findings, Democratic lawmakers from the House and Senate introduced a bill to create an independent commission to investigate the "flawed" federal response in Puerto Rico. They noted the "botched FEMA contracts" in calling for the commission. The legislation also calls for an examination of the island's death toll, and whether Puerto Rico was treated differently than Texas and Florida were after hurricanes last year, as NPR and FRONTLINE found. ...
https://www.npr.org/2018/06/14/608588161/fema-blamed-delays-in-puerto-rico-on-maria-agency-records-tell-another-story
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 27, 2018, 10:07:19 PM
“Big day for Puerto Rico:

✔️ @Ocasio2018 is about to join Congress, elected on a platform to rebuild the island with 100% renewable energy
✔️ A new bill was just submitted to Congress to make Puerto Rico the 51st state”

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1012034585352433665


https://grist.org/article/with-alexandria-ocasio-cortezs-victory-congress-will-likely-gain-a-new-climate-champion/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on June 30, 2018, 09:56:10 PM
Early typhoon for South Korea.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 01, 2018, 09:30:18 PM
“The eastern Pacific continues at a record pace as Fabio has formed overnight- it is the earliest 6th tropical storm on record for the basin by 2 days over 1985!”
https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1013378169632710659
Satellite GIF at the link.

NHC graphic below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Daniel B. on July 02, 2018, 03:10:57 AM
Meanwhile, all quiet on the Atlantic front.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on July 02, 2018, 03:21:01 AM
Saharan Dust Spreading Hazy Skies Across Caribbean and May Reach Texas By This Weekend

https://weather.com/news/news/2018-06-27-saharan-dust-africa-caribbean-texas

Quote
Dust from the Sahara Desert has spread across the Caribbean this week and may funnel its way into Texas by the weekend.

The massive plume of Saharan dust stretched from Africa into the Caribbean on Wednesday. You can see the plume in this NASA model simulation illustrating aerosols in the atmosphere, in this case, Saharan dust.

I believe this dust may play a part on the quiet. It is certainly uncomfortable. It makes it hard to breath, even if you are healthy. The dust irritates the eyes and people with allergies hate it. You can see it in the air. It is weird. It is not new, but it is particularly bad this year.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Susan Anderson on July 03, 2018, 05:16:54 AM
Apologies as this wanders a mite off topic, but the topic of dust and its cooling effect and interference with the north Atlantic tropical season overlaps with a lot of other material.

EarthObservatory and Wunderground have excellent posts on the dust and fires and heat. Just looked at GOES-16 too (different viewpoint): http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16 (http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16). I strongly recommend people take a look at the originals. Interesting materials, particularly the Wunderground overview. They appeared on my personal radar within an hour of each other, as is often the case with EarthObservatory material which is expanded into other weather-related and climate-related material.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Dangerous-US-Pollution-Event-Heat-Wave-African-Dust-and-Fires (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Dangerous-US-Pollution-Event-Heat-Wave-African-Dust-and-Fires)

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=92358&eocn=home&eoci=iotd_grid (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=92358&eocn=home&eoci=iotd_grid) Here Comes the Saharan Dust July 1, 2018

(https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/92000/92358/dust_geo_2018179.png)


https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=92373&eocn=home&eoci=nh (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=92373&eocn=home&eoci=nh) County Fire Lights Up the Night
(https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/92000/92373/california_vir_2018182.jpg)

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Daniel B. on July 03, 2018, 02:57:52 PM
The dust combing with cooler ocean waters and the possibility of an El Nino forming has led experts at Colorado State University and the Weather Channel to lower their forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on July 03, 2018, 03:46:05 PM
The dust should contribute to the low sst. Also at the surface  it feels as if the dust also dries the air. I imagine it has a similar effect at higher altitudes.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 03, 2018, 07:12:04 PM
“NASA's GPM Satellite Sees #Fabio Strengthening into a Hurricane
NASA's  GPM core observatory satellite flew above Tropical Storm Fabio in the eastern Pacific Ocean as the storm was quickly strengthening into a hurricane. ...”
https://mobile.twitter.com/nasahurricane/status/1013846477670682624
Image below.

NHC says:
...FABIO STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

NHC gives the persistent storms that have been pounding New orleans/Louisiana with flooding a less than 40% chance of developing into a tropical system.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/louisiana/articles/2018-07-03/heavy-rains-prompt-fears-of-flooding-in-new-orleans
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 04, 2018, 08:29:59 PM
...
NHC gives the persistent storms that have been pounding New orleans/Louisiana with flooding a less than 40% chance of developing into a tropical system.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/louisiana/articles/2018-07-03/heavy-rains-prompt-fears-of-flooding-in-new-orleans

System has moved over Houston.  Going nowhere fast.

City of Houston:
7/4/18, 11:40 AM
“AVOID TRAVELING IN HOUSTON AREA UNTIL THE ROADS CLEAR! Many streets have high water. Stay in until later please! #TurnAroundDontDrown #houwx #HappyFourthOfJuly #IndependenceDay”
https://twitter.com/houstontx/status/1014534390083399680

Image below from Storm Radar app.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on July 04, 2018, 08:36:34 PM
These storms, especially if slow moving, can be far more destructive than a hurricane barrelling quickly through. Floods cause more deaths and greater fundamental damage to infrastructure than wind (apart from places with poorly built infrastructure).
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 04, 2018, 09:16:06 PM
These storms, especially if slow moving, can be far more destructive than a hurricane barrelling quickly through. Floods cause more deaths and greater fundamental damage to infrastructure than wind (apart from places with poorly built infrastructure).

I agree.  Plus the psychological component:  we are accustomed to think about risk when a hurricane or tropical storm is forecast, but generally not when it’s “just rain.”


More from Houston twitter:
“Attention Riders: METRO bus and rail service impacted by flash flooding. METRORail Red Line affected south of Smithlands. Green Line suspended. Delays and detours on various routes are in effect. Please stay put in a safe place while storm passes.”

“Alert Houston: Special Flood Alert for Westbury Residents...”

“#BREAKING @FreedomOverTX Festival and concerts cancelled due to weather.  Fireworks show will go on. Mayor @SylvesterTurner will continue to remain at @HoustonOEM to monitor the rain and flooding. Tickets will be refunded. #HouWX #HouNews”

“Even though the @FreedomOverTX fireworks will go on as planned, NO ONE is allowed on the fairgrounds or near the festivities. The area along Allen Parkway and Sabine will remain closed. Please stay home and stay safe. #Breakingnews #HouNews #houwx”
https://twitter.com/houstontx/status/1014570740660756480
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: oren on July 04, 2018, 09:20:22 PM
System has moved over Houston.  Going nowhere fast.

City of Houston:
7/4/18, 11:40 AM
“AVOID TRAVELING IN HOUSTON AREA UNTIL THE ROADS CLEAR! Many streets have high water. Stay in until later please! #TurnAroundDontDrown #houwx #HappyFourthOfJuly #IndependenceDay”
https://twitter.com/houstontx/status/1014534390083399680

Image below from Storm Radar app.
I honestly thought for a moment this was some old post about Harvey.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Daniel B. on July 04, 2018, 09:34:54 PM
These storms, especially if slow moving, can be far more destructive than a hurricane barrelling quickly through. Floods cause more deaths and greater fundamental damage to infrastructure than wind (apart from places with poorly built infrastructure).

I agree.  Plus the psychological component:  we are accustomed to think about risk when a hurricane or tropical storm is forecast, but generally not when it’s “just rain.”


More from Houston twitter:
“Attention Riders: METRO bus and rail service impacted by flash flooding. METRORail Red Line affected south of Smithlands. Green Line suspended. Delays and detours on various routes are in effect. Please stay put in a safe place while storm passes.”

“Alert Houston: Special Flood Alert for Westbury Residents...”

“#BREAKING @FreedomOverTX Festival and concerts cancelled due to weather.  Fireworks show will go on. Mayor @SylvesterTurner will continue to remain at @HoustonOEM to monitor the rain and flooding. Tickets will be refunded. #HouWX #HouNews”

“Even though the @FreedomOverTX fireworks will go on as planned, NO ONE is allowed on the fairgrounds or near the festivities. The area along Allen Parkway and Sabine will remain closed. Please stay home and stay safe. #Breakingnews #HouNews #houwx”
https://twitter.com/houstontx/status/1014570740660756480

There has been much speculation about warming effects on tropical activity.  To date, there is no agreed upon result.  I tend to side with those predicting greater storm numbers, but of less intensity.  The warmer waters should generate more storms.  Storm strength is determined by atmospheric activity, largely unaffected by water temps.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on July 04, 2018, 09:46:58 PM
The Atlantic season is kicking in.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Gray-Wolf on July 04, 2018, 09:50:34 PM
Don't be silly Daniel of course water temps impact storms! Why do you think we have a water temp above which Hurricanes can form?

The warmer the water the faster it puts moisture into the atmosphere. All storms are driven by convection and part of the 'extra boost' is when the water condenses back out and brings us the dry adiabatic lapse rate aloft that allows for the explosive convection.

The fiercer the convection the fiercer that storm but the worst the downgraughts that eventually destroy the structure. Only storms able to overpower such survive so , to me, the warmer it gets we see the evolution of the biggest of the storms into beast we are unfamiliar with where the bulk end up short , sharp , shocks ( though the destabilised air mass may then grow another storm and so give the impression of a long storm over one location?).

Here in europe we are moving closer to these 'superstorms' as some of our recent storm flooding attests to!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Daniel B. on July 04, 2018, 10:03:40 PM
Don't be silly Daniel of course water temps impact storms! Why do you think we have a water temp above which Hurricanes can form?

The warmer the water the faster it puts moisture into the atmosphere. All storms are driven by convection and part of the 'extra boost' is when the water condenses back out and brings us the dry adiabatic lapse rate aloft that allows for the explosive convection.

The fiercer the convection the fiercer that storm but the worst the downgraughts that eventually destroy the structure. Only storms able to overpower such survive so , to me, the warmer it gets we see the evolution of the biggest of the storms into beast we are unfamiliar with where the bulk end up short , sharp , shocks ( though the destabilised air mass may then grow another storm and so give the impression of a long storm over one location?).

Here in europe we are moving closer to these 'superstorms' as some of our recent storm flooding attests to!

There is nothing silly about warmer water generating more storms.  Research shows that.  Once formed, storm intensity is largely independent of water temperature.  Water temperature can add more moisture, but has little effect on wind speed.  Both the national weather service and hurricane experts state that the current warmer has had little effect on hurricane strength.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: wili on July 05, 2018, 12:33:16 AM
GW also increases windshear, and that tends to destroy cyclones in the Atlantic basin.

So in fact numbers of hurricanes (cyclones in the Atlantic) are likely to stay the same or go down.

Elsewhere, both numbers and intensity are already increasing, iirc.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 05, 2018, 01:16:36 AM
West Pacific Tropical Storm ’Maria’ Forms Near Guam; Why This Name is Still Being Used
Quote
​​​​​​WHY DID THE NAME 'MARIA' REAPPEAR?

The Hurricane Maria that caused catastrophic damage in Puerto Rico had its name retired earlier this year due to the amount and severity of damage on the U.S. island territory.

But that name only got retired in a very small part of the world – just in the Atlantic Ocean. There are 12 other basins in the world that can have the same names.  Even 2017's catastrophic Maria did not end up causing a global retirement for the name.

Usually, names vary quite a bit in different parts of the world due to language and preference differences, but the western Pacific is usually a hodgepodge of names. This is because of how names are chosen in that basin. ...
https://weather.com/amp/storms/hurricane/news/2018-07-04-western-pacific-tropical-storm-typhoon-maria.html
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: wolfpack513 on July 05, 2018, 06:23:44 AM
In an environment void of shear & >5° latitude of the equator the limiting factor for a TC is SST or OHC.  Tropical cyclones are heat/Carnot engines.  To say otherwise is silly.


Don't be silly Daniel of course water temps impact storms! Why do you think we have a water temp above which Hurricanes can form?

The warmer the water the faster it puts moisture into the atmosphere. All storms are driven by convection and part of the 'extra boost' is when the water condenses back out and brings us the dry adiabatic lapse rate aloft that allows for the explosive convection.

The fiercer the convection the fiercer that storm but the worst the downgraughts that eventually destroy the structure. Only storms able to overpower such survive so , to me, the warmer it gets we see the evolution of the biggest of the storms into beast we are unfamiliar with where the bulk end up short , sharp , shocks ( though the destabilised air mass may then grow another storm and so give the impression of a long storm over one location?).

Here in europe we are moving closer to these 'superstorms' as some of our recent storm flooding attests to!

There is nothing silly about warmer water generating more storms.  Research shows that.  Once formed, storm intensity is largely independent of water temperature.  Water temperature can add more moisture, but has little effect on wind speed.  Both the national weather service and hurricane experts state that the current warmer has had little effect on hurricane strength.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Daniel B. on July 05, 2018, 03:25:21 PM
In an environment void of shear & >5° latitude of the equator the limiting factor for a TC is SST or OHC.  Tropical cyclones are heat/Carnot engines.  To say otherwise is silly.


Don't be silly Daniel of course water temps impact storms! Why do you think we have a water temp above which Hurricanes can form?

The warmer the water the faster it puts moisture into the atmosphere. All storms are driven by convection and part of the 'extra boost' is when the water condenses back out and brings us the dry adiabatic lapse rate aloft that allows for the explosive convection.

The fiercer the convection the fiercer that storm but the worst the downgraughts that eventually destroy the structure. Only storms able to overpower such survive so , to me, the warmer it gets we see the evolution of the biggest of the storms into beast we are unfamiliar with where the bulk end up short , sharp , shocks ( though the destabilised air mass may then grow another storm and so give the impression of a long storm over one location?).

Here in europe we are moving closer to these 'superstorms' as some of our recent storm flooding attests to!

There is nothing silly about warmer water generating more storms.  Research shows that.  Once formed, storm intensity is largely independent of water temperature.  Water temperature can add more moisture, but has little effect on wind speed.  Both the national weather service and hurricane experts state that the current warmer has had little effect on hurricane strength.

Correct.  But since our environment is not void of shear, to ignore its effects is silly.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: wili on July 05, 2018, 04:46:31 PM
Daniel, I am confused about what your position is.

You have said, "I tend to side with those predicting greater storm numbers."

But now you are pointing out (rightly) the importance of wind shear, which should reduce the number of storms.

This seems to be a contradiction, but perhaps I'm missing some nuance?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Daniel B. on July 05, 2018, 05:57:56 PM
Daniel, I am confused about what your position is.

You have said, "I tend to side with those predicting greater storm numbers."

But now you are pointing out (rightly) the importance of wind shear, which should reduce the number of storms.

This seems to be a contradiction, but perhaps I'm missing some nuance?

Let me clarify.  The warmer waters should increase the number of storms.  Once formed, wind shear (and other atmospheric events) have the greatest effect on storm strength.  Hence, warmer waters and greater wind shear should combine to generate more, but weaker storms.  Does that clear the ar?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: oren on July 05, 2018, 06:47:09 PM
Very clear.
I believe the science says same number of storms, but more powerful. I can't recall where I've read it though.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Csnavywx on July 05, 2018, 07:36:01 PM
This season could contend with the all-time lows. Low MDR temps and high ambient shear with a quickly developing Nino all lend towards low ACE numbers. I'm thinking 50-80% of normal this year when it's all said and done.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: wolfpack513 on July 05, 2018, 09:10:43 PM
In an environment void of shear & >5° latitude of the equator the limiting factor for a TC is SST or OHC.  Tropical cyclones are heat/Carnot engines.  To say otherwise is silly.


Don't be silly Daniel of course water temps impact storms! Why do you think we have a water temp above which Hurricanes can form?

The warmer the water the faster it puts moisture into the atmosphere. All storms are driven by convection and part of the 'extra boost' is when the water condenses back out and brings us the dry adiabatic lapse rate aloft that allows for the explosive convection.

The fiercer the convection the fiercer that storm but the worst the downgraughts that eventually destroy the structure. Only storms able to overpower such survive so , to me, the warmer it gets we see the evolution of the biggest of the storms into beast we are unfamiliar with where the bulk end up short , sharp , shocks ( though the destabilised air mass may then grow another storm and so give the impression of a long storm over one location?).

Here in europe we are moving closer to these 'superstorms' as some of our recent storm flooding attests to!

There is nothing silly about warmer water generating more storms.  Research shows that.  Once formed, storm intensity is largely independent of water temperature.  Water temperature can add more moisture, but has little effect on wind speed.  Both the national weather service and hurricane experts state that the current warmer has had little effect on hurricane strength.

Correct.  But since our environment is not void of shear, to ignore its effects is silly.

There are plenty of TC’s globally every year that strengthen in low to no shear environments.

 You said “Once formed, storm intensity is largely independent of water temperature.  Water temperature can add more moisture, but has little effect on wind speed.“.

That’s completely false.  There’s a reason why East Pacific MDR is so small.  That’s where all the warm water is and SSTs drop off drastically once you move away from it. 

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 06, 2018, 02:29:13 AM
Bob Henson (@bhensonweather)
7/5/18, 6:04 PM
“Now rapidly strengthening in the NW Pacific, Typhoon #Maria is now predicted by JTWC to become a Cat 5 equivalent--which would be the first time in memory we've had two Cat 5s by the same name in different basins. (sat img courtesy RAMMB-CSU/CIRA) https://t.co/u5ntUeqmS5
https://twitter.com/bhensonweather/status/1014993422153728000
Satellite image at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Daniel B. on July 06, 2018, 03:13:55 PM
In an environment void of shear & >5° latitude of the equator the limiting factor for a TC is SST or OHC.  Tropical cyclones are heat/Carnot engines.  To say otherwise is silly.


Don't be silly Daniel of course water temps impact storms! Why do you think we have a water temp above which Hurricanes can form?

The warmer the water the faster it puts moisture into the atmosphere. All storms are driven by convection and part of the 'extra boost' is when the water condenses back out and brings us the dry adiabatic lapse rate aloft that allows for the explosive convection.

The fiercer the convection the fiercer that storm but the worst the downgraughts that eventually destroy the structure. Only storms able to overpower such survive so , to me, the warmer it gets we see the evolution of the biggest of the storms into beast we are unfamiliar with where the bulk end up short , sharp , shocks ( though the destabilised air mass may then grow another storm and so give the impression of a long storm over one location?).

Here in europe we are moving closer to these 'superstorms' as some of our recent storm flooding attests to!

There is nothing silly about warmer water generating more storms.  Research shows that.  Once formed, storm intensity is largely independent of water temperature.  Water temperature can add more moisture, but has little effect on wind speed.  Both the national weather service and hurricane experts state that the current warmer has had little effect on hurricane strength.

Correct.  But since our environment is not void of shear, to ignore its effects is silly.

There are plenty of TC’s globally every year that strengthen in low to no shear environments.

 You said “Once formed, storm intensity is largely independent of water temperature.  Water temperature can add more moisture, but has little effect on wind speed.“.

That’s completely false.  There’s a reason why East Pacific MDR is so small.  That’s where all the warm water is and SSTs drop off drastically once you move away from it.

And yet the research supports this.  Are you saying that the scientific research is completely false?

http://ruby.fgcu.edu/courses/twimberley/EnviroPhilo/SeaSurface.pdf (http://ruby.fgcu.edu/courses/twimberley/EnviroPhilo/SeaSurface.pdf)

"We also found that 28˚C is an important threshold for the development of major hurricanes (Categories 3, 4, or 5) but, above that threshold there is no increase in intensity that is proportional to SST."

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2006GL027969 (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2006GL027969)

"Apparently, the warming trends of the three tropical oceans cancel with respect to their effects on the vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic, so that the tropical cyclone activity remained rather stable and mostly within the range of the natural multidecadal variability."

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2009JCLI2930.1 (https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2009JCLI2930.1)

"We summarize our most important findings as follows:  For the multidecadal trend, changes in the seasonal mean thermodynamic environment account for more than half of the observed increase in hurricane and tropical cyclone numbers and in the cumulative statistics, ACE and PDI. For the 21st-century climate change scenario, the model’s projected reduction in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity appears driven mostly by circulation changes, notably the increased seasonal mean vertical shear in the western Atlantic and Caribbean."

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Ken Feldman on July 06, 2018, 06:22:04 PM
Realclimate.org did a good post on this a few months ago:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/05/does-global-warming-make-tropical-cyclones-stronger/ (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/05/does-global-warming-make-tropical-cyclones-stronger/)

Quote
In the long term, whether we will see fewer or more tropical cyclones in the Atlantic or in other basins as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change is still much-debated. There is a mounting consensus, however, that we will see more intense hurricanes. So let us revisit the question of whether global warming is leading to more intense tropical storms. Let’s take a step back and look at this issue globally, not just for the Atlantic.

Tropical storms are powered by evaporation of seawater.  More than 30 years ago, one of us (Emanuel) developed a quantity called potential intensity that sets an upper bound on hurricane wind speeds. In general, as the climate warms, this speed limit goes up, permitting stronger storms than were possible in the past.

Of course there could be other changes in the climate system that counteract this – e.g. an increase in wind shear that tears the hurricanes apart, changes in the humidity of the atmosphere, or increases in natural or anthropogenic aerosols. This question has been investigated for many years with the help of model simulations. The results of numerous such studies can be summarized briefly as follows: due to global warming we do not necessarily expect more tropical storms overall, but an increasing number of particularly strong storms in categories 4 and 5, especially storms of previously unobserved strength. This assessment has been widely agreed on at least since the 4th IPCC Report of 2007 and reaffirmed several times since then. A review article in the leading journal Science (Sobel et al. 2016) concluded:

We thus expect tropical cyclone intensities to increase with warming, both on average and at the high end of the scale, so that the strongest future storms will exceed the strength of any in the past.

Models also suggest that atmospheric aerosol pollution may have weakened tropical storms and masked the effect of global warming for decades, making it more difficult to detect trends in measurement data.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 06, 2018, 07:04:23 PM
Yesterday, WU wrote  (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/TD-2-Forms-Central-Atlantic-Typhoon-Maria-Lashes-Guam-Heads-Okinawa)"Our top models for forecasting hurricane tracks ... all predicted in their runs from Thursday morning that Beryl would be a tropical wave by Sunday."  Today, the official forecast for Beryl projects a Category 2 hurricane on Sunday morning.  Heaven help those who trusted yesterday's forecast!

An update on Hurricane Beryl the WU website is due any time now.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Ken Feldman on July 06, 2018, 07:11:58 PM

And yet the research supports this.  Are you saying that the scientific research is completely false?

http://ruby.fgcu.edu/courses/twimberley/EnviroPhilo/SeaSurface.pdf (http://ruby.fgcu.edu/courses/twimberley/EnviroPhilo/SeaSurface.pdf)

"We also found that 28˚C is an important threshold for the development of major hurricanes (Categories 3, 4, or 5) but, above that threshold there is no increase in intensity that is proportional to SST."

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2006GL027969 (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2006GL027969)

"Apparently, the warming trends of the three tropical oceans cancel with respect to their effects on the vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic, so that the tropical cyclone activity remained rather stable and mostly within the range of the natural multidecadal variability."

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2009JCLI2930.1 (https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2009JCLI2930.1)

"We summarize our most important findings as follows:  For the multidecadal trend, changes in the seasonal mean thermodynamic environment account for more than half of the observed increase in hurricane and tropical cyclone numbers and in the cumulative statistics, ACE and PDI. For the 21st-century climate change scenario, the model’s projected reduction in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity appears driven mostly by circulation changes, notably the increased seasonal mean vertical shear in the western Atlantic and Caribbean."

Daniel B.

Your first source is a paper whose lead author, Patrick J. Michaels, is a notorious science denier.  He wrote this while employed at the CATO Institute, a "think tank" that supports climate deniers.  I can't find a date on the paper or what publication it was published in, so it may not have been peer-reviewed.  The paper studied storms from 1982 to 2003, which obviously missed out on the 2004 and 2005 seasons, so they may have cherry-picked the dates.  Since other studies that include a fuller data set (starting from 1979 when geo-stationary satellites provided global coverage), this paper is at best out of date, if not intentionally misleading.

You may want to be careful about reposting papers from known deniers.  People might start assuming you're a denier as well.

More on Patrick J. Michaels of the CATO Institute here:

https://www.skepticalscience.com/patrick-michaels-history-getting-climate-wrong.html (https://www.skepticalscience.com/patrick-michaels-history-getting-climate-wrong.html)

Quote
A review of claims made by the Cato Institute's Patrick Michaels over the last quarter century shows that he has repeatedly been proven wrong over time. Michaels is one of a few contrarian climate scientists who is often featured in the media without disclosure of his funding from the fossil fuel industry.

Quote
Michaels Estimated That 40 Percent Of His Funding Comes From Fossil Fuel Industries. In 2010, Patrick Michaels estimated that about 40 percent of his funding comes from fossil fuel industries:


FAREED ZAKARIA, CNN HOST: Can I ask you what percentage of your work is funded by the petroleum industry?

PATRICK MICHAELS: I don't know. Forty percent? I don't know. [CNN, Fareed Zakaria GPS, 8/15/10, via Think Progress]

Michaels Initially Did Not Disclose His Publication Was Funded By Coal Industry Association. The Society of Environmental Journalists reported in 2007 that Michaels initially did not disclose that World Climate Report, published by Michaels' PR firm New Hope Environmental Services, was partially funded by the Western Fuels Association, an association of coal mining companies and coal-fired utilities:
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Ken Feldman on July 06, 2018, 07:30:24 PM
The other papers in Daniel B's post above are from 2007 and 2009.  There has been a lot more data collected since then, and the data doesn't support the conclusions he reached.  In the past decade it's become apparent that tropical storms are becoming stronger due to global warming.

Here's a peer-reviewed study from 2016, published in Science:

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/353/6296/242.full (http://science.sciencemag.org/content/353/6296/242.full)

Quote
Observed trends

The detection of long-term trends in TC activity has been a subject of considerable debate. The validity of data from the earlier periods in the longest-term observational data sets has been strongly questioned [e.g., (55–58)], making any trends computed from records that include those periods disputable. Large natural variability, including substantial components with decadal and longer frequencies, further confounds trend detection in records, which in many cases are only a few decades long. These difficulties have led to findings of low confidence in observed TC trends in consensus assessment reports (7, 59).

Perhaps the most persistent and provocative [though not unchallenged (58)] findings are that intensity increased in the past few decades at the upper end of the observed range, implying an increasing frequency of storms in categories 4 and 5 on the commonly used Saffir-Simpson scale (60–62), and that overall activity increased in the North Atlantic over a period of roughly three decades, beginning in the 1970s (63, 64).
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 06, 2018, 08:03:27 PM
“.@fema in Puerto Rico is preparing for Beryl by distributing satellite radios today to “ensure local mayors will have some forms of connectivity.”
People in homes with blue roofs are encouraged to seek shelter. I’m told the govt is working on a website with open shelter locations”
https://twitter.com/davidbegnaud/status/1015258809395286017

NHC:  “BRAZEN BERYL A LITTLE STRONGER... ...NOW FORECAST TO STILL BE A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES...”
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Daniel B. on July 06, 2018, 08:45:03 PM

And yet the research supports this.  Are you saying that the scientific research is completely false?

http://ruby.fgcu.edu/courses/twimberley/EnviroPhilo/SeaSurface.pdf (http://ruby.fgcu.edu/courses/twimberley/EnviroPhilo/SeaSurface.pdf)

"We also found that 28˚C is an important threshold for the development of major hurricanes (Categories 3, 4, or 5) but, above that threshold there is no increase in intensity that is proportional to SST."

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2006GL027969 (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2006GL027969)

"Apparently, the warming trends of the three tropical oceans cancel with respect to their effects on the vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic, so that the tropical cyclone activity remained rather stable and mostly within the range of the natural multidecadal variability."

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2009JCLI2930.1 (https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2009JCLI2930.1)

"We summarize our most important findings as follows:  For the multidecadal trend, changes in the seasonal mean thermodynamic environment account for more than half of the observed increase in hurricane and tropical cyclone numbers and in the cumulative statistics, ACE and PDI. For the 21st-century climate change scenario, the model’s projected reduction in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity appears driven mostly by circulation changes, notably the increased seasonal mean vertical shear in the western Atlantic and Caribbean."

Daniel B.

Your first source is a paper whose lead author, Patrick J. Michaels, is a notorious science denier.  He wrote this while employed at the CATO Institute, a "think tank" that supports climate deniers.  I can't find a date on the paper or what publication it was published in, so it may not have been peer-reviewed.  The paper studied storms from 1982 to 2003, which obviously missed out on the 2004 and 2005 seasons, so they may have cherry-picked the dates.  Since other studies that include a fuller data set (starting from 1979 when geo-stationary satellites provided global coverage), this paper is at best out of date, if not intentionally misleading.

You may want to be careful about reposting papers from known deniers.  People might start assuming you're a denier as well.

More on Patrick J. Michaels of the CATO Institute here:

https://www.skepticalscience.com/patrick-michaels-history-getting-climate-wrong.html (https://www.skepticalscience.com/patrick-michaels-history-getting-climate-wrong.html)

Quote
A review of claims made by the Cato Institute's Patrick Michaels over the last quarter century shows that he has repeatedly been proven wrong over time. Michaels is one of a few contrarian climate scientists who is often featured in the media without disclosure of his funding from the fossil fuel industry.

Quote
Michaels Estimated That 40 Percent Of His Funding Comes From Fossil Fuel Industries. In 2010, Patrick Michaels estimated that about 40 percent of his funding comes from fossil fuel industries:


FAREED ZAKARIA, CNN HOST: Can I ask you what percentage of your work is funded by the petroleum industry?

PATRICK MICHAELS: I don't know. Forty percent? I don't know. [CNN, Fareed Zakaria GPS, 8/15/10, via Think Progress]

Michaels Initially Did Not Disclose His Publication Was Funded By Coal Industry Association. The Society of Environmental Journalists reported in 2007 that Michaels initially did not disclose that World Climate Report, published by Michaels' PR firm New Hope Environmental Services, was partially funded by the Western Fuels Association, an association of coal mining companies and coal-fired utilities:

Ah yes, the old sleazy lawyer ploy; if you cannot refute the evidence, discredit the witness.

Your article shows clear cherry-picking at its best.  The following shows a longer term analysis:

https://www.20minutes.fr/planete/2139895-20170927-ouragans-changement-climatique-lien-si-evident (https://www.20minutes.fr/planete/2139895-20170927-ouragans-changement-climatique-lien-si-evident)

While overall activity increased since the 1970s (as stated in your article), major hurricanes simply returned to levels observed in previous decades.

Even NOAA shows an increase in total numbers, but no long-term energy increase.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tropical-cyclones/201713 (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tropical-cyclones/201713)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on July 06, 2018, 08:57:07 PM
The will be a pretty big impact.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: jai mitchell on July 06, 2018, 09:07:54 PM
FWIW

This paper https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014EF000274

produced the following results

https://www.newhistorian.com/monster-hurricanes-battered-us-northeast-800-years-ago/2970/

Quote
Donnelly and his team have made a remarkable discovery which widens our understanding of our planet’s climate. It also presents a stark warning for the future, if our climate keeps getting warmer. “We may need to begin planning for a category 3 hurricane landfall every decade or so rather than every 100 or 200 years.”
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: wili on July 06, 2018, 10:03:48 PM
Thanks, Ken.

Daniel has a history of citing deniers of various sorts, and comes off strongly as a denier/pseudo-skeptic himself. That's why I mostly ignore him and don't bother to track down his bogus/dated sources anymore. So thanks for tracking that down.

He seems to be about the only 'sleezy' one around here much anymore. Still wondering why the great and powerful N has not yet banned his @$$...I thought this was mostly a denialist-free zone...
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Neven on July 06, 2018, 10:37:04 PM
Still wondering why the great and powerful N has not yet banned his @$$...I thought this was mostly a denialist-free zone...

It has become a bit more denialist-free again. Claiming 'shoot the messenger' with regard to a coward like Michaels and his trickery from 15 years ago is a bit too much, even for me.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: oren on July 06, 2018, 11:07:08 PM
It has become a bit more denialist-free again.
Finally, thanks Neven. DB was a "soft" denier but a denier nonetheless, and it was kinda tiring to keep countering him. I think when you constantly read compromised sources (intentionally or unintentionally) you become compromised yourself.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: wili on July 06, 2018, 11:34:46 PM
Thanks, N!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on July 07, 2018, 01:24:37 AM
In the Pacific, Super Typhoon Maria went from the equivalent of a category one to a five hurricane in 24 hours. See: https://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com/2018/07/super-typhoon-maria-category-1-to-5-in.html

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Ned W on July 07, 2018, 02:38:08 AM
Realclimate.org did a good post on this a few months ago:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/05/does-global-warming-make-tropical-cyclones-stronger/ (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/05/does-global-warming-make-tropical-cyclones-stronger/)

Thanks, Ken.  I have recommended that post to others -- it's a good summary of where the science is at on this topic.

Quote from: Daniel B.
Ah yes, the old sleazy lawyer ploy; if you cannot refute the evidence, discredit the witness.

Pat Michaels discredited himself long ago.  He doesn't need anyone's help with that.   WTF were you thinking of, using him as a source?  And then when it's pointed out, arguing instead of just saying "oops, sorry, I didn't notice the source I was citing was garbage".

Quote from: Neven
It has become a bit more denialist-free again.

Thanks for your tireless work here. 

In the Pacific, Super Typhoon Maria went from the equivalent of a category one to a five hurricane in 24 hours.

That's pretty extreme.  I should probably search rather than just tossing this out there, but I seem to remember someone posting something here last hurricane season about there being a trend towards faster intensification of storms, more rapid transition from cat 1/2 to cat 3/4/5...
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 07, 2018, 05:22:18 PM
Debris Cleanup At Lake Houston Will Continue For Months
Quote
Now almost a year out from Hurricane Harvey, debris cleanup at Lake Houston is still ongoing, and crews may be on the water for months to come in a project expected to cost anywhere between $8 million and $20 million.  ...
https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/2018/07/06/294657/debris-cleanup-at-lake-houston-will-continue-for-months/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 09, 2018, 05:48:00 PM
Yesterday, WU wrote  (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/TD-2-Forms-Central-Atlantic-Typhoon-Maria-Lashes-Guam-Heads-Okinawa)"Our top models for forecasting hurricane tracks ... all predicted in their runs from Thursday morning that Beryl would be a tropical wave by Sunday."  Today, the official forecast for Beryl projects a Category 2 hurricane on Sunday morning.  Heaven help those who trusted yesterday's forecast!
...
Heaven, I guess, did help!  Recent WU post included:
Quote
Tropical Storm Beryl degenerated to a very windy and rainy tropical wave on Sunday afternoon, as it sped west-northwest through the Leeward Islands at 26 mph.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 09, 2018, 06:05:23 PM
Typhoon Maria will continue to slowly weaken as it heads WNW toward Taiwan and mainland China.  While the storm will be large, the maximum winds will probably be 80-90 knots when impacting China -- equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane.  It is no longer a "Super Typhoon" or Cat 5.”
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1016335302393245696
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on July 09, 2018, 11:02:28 PM
Look at this really awesome satellite animation of the remnants of Beryl followed by Saharan dust.

https://twitter.com/kudrios/status/1016313077883637760
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 11, 2018, 01:22:09 AM
• Hurricane Chris has joined Beryl as the second Atlantic July hurricane of 2018.
• More than one hurricane forming in the Atlantic during July is rare.
• The last time two or more hurricanes formed in July was 10 years ago.
Quote
Chris attained hurricane-strength late Tuesday afternoon as it spun off the U.S. East Coast, making it a rare second hurricane to form in the Atlantic during July.

The first hurricane of 2018 arrived on July 6 when Beryl developed in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Beryl's formation spot was an odd one for early July. It was just one of two such hurricanes to form that early in the season east of the Lesser Antilles.

July hurricane formations are infrequent, with 55 of them occurring in the Atlantic Basin in the 166 years spanning 1851 to 2017, according to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division. That's an average of about one July hurricane every three years.

Beryl was the first Atlantic hurricane to form in July since Arthur in 2014.

Two hurricanes forming in July is even less common. The last time that happened was in 2008. Hurricane Dolly struck south Texas as a Category 1, and Hurricane Bertha roamed the central Atlantic and brought tropical storm conditions to Bermuda.

Before that, only five other years since satellite observations began in 1966 have had two or more hurricanes form in July: 2005, 2003, 1997, 1996 and 1966. In 2005 (Cindy, Dennis, Emily) and 1966 (Becky, Celia, Dorthy), three hurricanes formed in July.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-07-09-beryl-chris-hurricane-atlantic-july
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 11, 2018, 07:40:47 PM
U.S. Pulls Puerto Rico Backup Power Before Hurricane Season Peak
- One backup plant being dismantled, two others remain running on a one-month contract extension
- Heart of Atlantic hurricane season will strike in mid-August
Quote
While the mega-generators are being dismantled, Miller said other generators are being refurbished and will remain stored on the island for potential use during this year’s hurricane season. The Federal Emergency Management Agency and Defense Logistics Agency will ultimately decide how many generators will remain in Puerto Rico, she said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-07-10/u-s-pulls-puerto-rico-backup-power-before-hurricane-season-peak
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 16, 2018, 06:06:08 PM
Houston, Texas

As Post-Harvey Buyout Money Rolls In, Some Have Already Given Up On The Program
Quote
After Hurricane Harvey flooded thousands of homes in Houston, a lot more homeowners became interested in government buyouts.

The federal money needed to buy and demolish all those homes has finally started rolling in, but as the months passed since the storm, some people decided they couldn’t wait on the government.

Buyouts are generally regarded as a cost-effective way to save people from flooding risks, but the glacially-slow pace is a big challenge. So far, Harris County has received about half the $164 million it’s requested from FEMA for the effort.

“We basically want to go after the houses that were impacted the most, first,” said James Wade, head of the county’s buyout program. Wade said the county targets houses that basically should have never been built.

“They’re in areas that, you know, some of these areas may be ten feet deep in the floodplain, and you’re never going to engineer your way out of that flooding threat,” he said.

Since Harvey, the county has approved applications from about 1,000 people who volunteered to let the government tear down their home and, ideally, turn the area into a green space that better absorbs floodwater. But Wade said about 200 of those people have already either sold to someone else or decided not to sell at all, and he said that’s historically been a problem.
...
Even before Harvey, Harris County’s buyout program was the largest in the U.S. Local officials are hoping to use separate pots of money for more buyouts, beyond what’s already been federally funded. But even if that’s all successful, there will still be almost 200,000 homes left in the region’s floodplains. ...
https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/2018/07/16/295696/as-post-harvey-buyout-money-rolls-in-some-have-already-given-up-on-the-program/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 16, 2018, 06:32:31 PM
Frontline (https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/fema-report-acknowledges-failures-in-puerto-rico-disaster-response/) July 13, 2018 NPR

Quote
FEMA acknowledged for the first time it failed to properly prepare for last year’s hurricane season and was unable to provide the support victims needed in the wake of an unprecedented season of catastrophic storms, according to an internal report released this week by the federal agency.
...
Now they know what everybody else knew at the time...
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on July 22, 2018, 05:48:24 PM
The Atlantic may be quiet, but you don't often see such a mess in the Pacific as in the attached image from JTWC.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on July 24, 2018, 11:01:21 PM
To add to Japan's weather woes.....Tokyo next
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on July 25, 2018, 11:51:32 AM
Straight over one of the biggest cities in the world, with plenty of rain.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on July 26, 2018, 11:25:58 PM
Tropical Storm Jongdari Expected to Bring Rain to Parts of Japan
Meteorologist Ari Sarsalari says Tropical Storm Jongdari is forecast to bring heavy rain to areas of Japan, already hard hit by flooding earlier this month.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-07-25-tropical-storm-typhoon-jongdari-japan-unusual-track-end-heat
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 05, 2018, 01:35:08 PM
NWS on Twitter: "Hector remains a major hurricane this morning. Those with interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor its progress.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/nws/status/1026062377509421056
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 06, 2018, 01:38:29 AM
Hurricane #Hector is now a Category 4 system and could pose a threat to #Hawaii this week
https://mobile.twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1026217769384259584

https://weather.com/amp/storms/hurricane/news/2018-08-01-threat-tropical-storm-hurricane-hector-hawaii.html
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Forest Dweller on August 06, 2018, 01:54:42 PM
Hurricane #Hector is now a Category 4 system and could pose a threat to #Hawaii this week
https://mobile.twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1026217769384259584

https://weather.com/amp/storms/hurricane/news/2018-08-01-threat-tropical-storm-hurricane-hector-hawaii.html

Looks like hurricane Hector will pass south of Hawaii in the models, but typhoon Shanshan has Tokyo in it sights big time with possible winds of around 220 kmph.

I was discussing the current naming system with Jim Massa, who thinks it is silly, they're all just storms.
He's probably right about that, people are confused always about what is a typhoon/hurricane/cyclone.
Or getting storms with the same name from different years mixed up....a better system is conceivable.
I.E. let's say the second tropical storm in the Atlantic of 2018 gains strength and becomes the 1st category 1 or above cyclonic storm...TS-A2-2018 becomes CS-A1-2018.
Would probably be a lot handier for studying historical activity in a database, filtering results, comparing...maybe similar systems are used already for that purpose.
No need to give silly names unless they are at least funny, hurricane Bert & hurricane Ernie?
 ;D
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on August 06, 2018, 10:53:01 PM
And that typhoon is on his way to this area.

https://japantoday.com/category/national/thousands-of-households-in-yamagata-told-to-evacuate-amid-heavy-rain
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 07, 2018, 12:20:01 AM
”No need to give silly names unless they are at least funny...”

Most Met officies would disagree.  Names give a storm an identity, a “personification” that develops with the forecasts, and provides a more robust basis for communicating a significant storm threat to a population, compared with a jumble of letters and numbers that provide no emotional connection to the casual listener.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Forest Dweller on August 07, 2018, 06:17:11 PM
”No need to give silly names unless they are at least funny...”

Most Met officies would disagree.  Names give a storm an identity, a “personification” that develops with the forecasts, and provides a more robust basis for communicating a significant storm threat to a population, compared with a jumble of letters and numbers that provide no emotional connection to the casual listener.

I'm sure they would disagree, and personification i understand but how useful is it?
We don't do it for other weather calamities.
It would be ridiculous for tornadoes or floods.
There aren't that many cyclonic storms but there was a lot last year and the alphabet is only so big was the concern.
It wouldn't have to be a "jumble of letters and numbers that provide no emotional connection to the casual listener"either.
The weatherman would probably just say how cyclone A5 did damage to such and such areas of the US or Carribean.
People would understand how bad others were affected regardless.
But we like our names of course...i was just reading how the last severe heatwave in Europe was named "Lucifer".
What will they call this one i wonder?
Beëlzebub or just plain Satan?
You run out of religious names pretty quick as well....
The Dutch whose country was devastated and reshaped by many big storms tried a similar system, using the names of saints whose celebration days coincide with the date of the storm.
The St. Thomas or St. Lucia flood etc.
The more recent major flood of 1953 is simply remembered as the "flood disaster".
Everyone knows how bad it was but they hardly know about the much worse ones earlier ripping the country in half.
Most don't even understand tornadoes can happen here, when in fact we have the highest occurence in the world.
I manged to predict the last F4-5 outbreak accurately 3 summers ago, luck no doubt...hmmm.
I'm not placing bets but i suspect we will see more soon enough.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: jacksmith4tx on August 09, 2018, 04:44:33 PM
Revised death toll in Puerto Rico from 2017 hurricane Maria goes from 46 to 1427.

https://apnews.com/1fe6c144340d4d41963fd304d569c088/Puerto-Rico-concedes-Hurricane-Maria-deaths-more-than-1,400
Quote
Most of the deaths occurred not in the initial storm on Sept. 20, but in the ensuing days and weeks when the island-wide electricity outage and roads blocked by downed power lines and other debris made it difficult to move around and emergency services were stretched beyond their capabilities.

My son was deployed to Puerto Rico by FEMA after the storm and he said it was most depressing thing he's ever experienced.

The mass exodus of Puerto Rico citizens peaked a few weeks after the storm but recent surveys indicate that many have returned. On balance a few hundred thousand have permanently left the island.
https://www.citylab.com/environment/2018/05/watch-puerto-ricos-hurricane-migration-via-mobile-phone-data/559889/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on August 13, 2018, 04:35:50 AM
Quote
Revised death toll in Puerto Rico from 2017 hurricane Maria goes from 46 to 1427.

It was really easy to tell. It was mathematically obvious that the number of indirect deaths would be much higher than that ridiculous number of 64.

I remember when Trump asked how many people died and the governor said 16, so proudly. I was watched this using my generator.  I literally cried in a mix of anger, disbelief and sadness for all the people that would suffer just so they could save face. It was obvious that the deaths would be higher. No statistics or protocol needed.

I'm trying to convince myself that this happened because the governor and every government official were also victims. Probably the stress of knowing they literally lost control of the country forced them default to their most basic instinct and only real expertise, to protect their image above anything else.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 16, 2018, 03:06:13 PM
Subtropical Storm Ernesto Nearly Surrounded By California and Canadian Wildfire Smoke Over the North Atlantic Extending to Europe
Quote
A strange juxtaposition appeared in satellite imagery over the Atlantic Ocean this week.

Subtropical Storm Ernesto formed in the North Atlantic Ocean, well southeast of Newfoundland, Wednesday, though it was no threat to land.

The fact that Ernesto was a subtropical, rather than tropical, storm and that it formed at roughly at the same latitude as Washington D.C. isn't the weird part.

What struck meteorologists as odd was how Ernesto's circulation appeared to become encircled by wildfire smoke, showing up as a dull haze in GOES-East satellite imagery. ...
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-08-15-subtropical-storm-ernesto-wildfire-smoke-atlantic
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 18, 2018, 04:50:41 PM
Typhoon Soulik will approach Kyushu, Shikoku and western Honshu in southern Japan early next week with heavy rain and strong winds. And it might not be the last typhoon threat in Japan this month

Typhoon Soulik a Potential Threat to Flood-Ravaged Southwest Japan Next Week; Second Typhoon to Follow?
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-08-16-typhoon-soulik-japan-korea
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 19, 2018, 06:16:01 PM
U.K.

Corrie Corfield on Twitter: "I’ve been reading the Ships on @BBCRadio4 for nearly 30 years & this is the first time I’ve had a TROPICAL storm. Becoming EXTRA tropical to boot #BraceYourselfForErnesto "
https://mobile.twitter.com/corrie_corfield/status/1030765893897334784
Image below.

BBC Shipping forecast and region map:
https://www.bbc.com/weather/coast_and_sea/shipping_forecast#area-1
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on August 20, 2018, 04:56:33 PM
A dubble wammy for Japan and South-Korea.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 20, 2018, 08:55:26 PM
I’ve been reading the Ships on @BBCRadio4 for nearly 30 years & this is the first time I’ve had a TROPICAL storm

Ernesto was still a tropical storm at very nearly my latitude over here in soggy SW England:
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 20, 2018, 10:26:02 PM
A story of several hurricanes.

Elon Musk & Puerto Rico: How He Is Making A Difference and Why It Matters
http://johnnasabri.com/elon-musk-and-puerto-rico
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 21, 2018, 06:25:21 PM
MAJOR HURRICANE LANE STILL MOVING WEST BUT EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK
HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR HAWAII AND MAUI COUNTIES
500 AM HST Tue Aug 21 2018
Location: 14.1N 152.3W
Maximum sustained winds: 150 MPH
Moving: W at 12 MPH
Minimum pressure: 950 MB

NWS on Twitter: "This graphic shows the most-likely arrival time for sustained tropical storm force winds (39+ MPH) from #Lane. Follow @NWSHonolulu for the latest forecast and potential local impacts."
https://mobile.twitter.com/nws/status/1031912934409207809
Image below.

Edit: from NWS WPC:
#HurricaneLane is forecast to pass near the Hawaiian Islands, leading to rainfall accumulations in excess of 10 inches [254mm]. Flash flooding and landslides will be of concern.
   Please follow http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/ and http://www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/hnl/ for track, intensity, and impact updates.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 21, 2018, 09:19:11 PM
Michael Lowry (@MichaelRLowry). 8/21/18, 10:57 AM
This is a troubling forecast for #Hawaii. There are a million people on #Oahu alone, where no direct hurricane impact (of any magnitude) has been recorded. This isn't Florida. The landscape and infrastructure are different. Take this one seriously. #Lane
https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1031918273825316864

<< Yes with big mountains and flooding potential

<< Nobody has hurricane shutters, generators, etc. Homes are not built with hurricanes in mind. There are many shallow-rooted trees. At any given time O'ahu has a food supply to last a week. This could be a genuine catastrophe.

<< These are all good points...also this is one of the peaks of tourist season so thousands more people wondering what to do next.  Although this has happened before...in Cabo etc.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 22, 2018, 12:01:21 AM
Matt Lanza (@mattlanza).  8/21/18, 12:44 PM
The trend in the forecast for #Lane is one of those “could this actually happen?” moments I think we have seen on multiple occasions in meteorology in recent years (2011 Superoutbreak, Sandy, Harvey, Maria, others I’m sure I am forgetting).
https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1031945031127584768

Stu Ostro (@StuOstro).  8/21/18, 12:01 PM
#HurricaneLane has reintensified as upper-level outflow -- the storm engine's "exhaust" -- has improved, represented by high clouds streaming away from the core... also squall bands have formed farther N & NE of the center #HIwx
https://twitter.com/stuostro/status/1031934244568870913
Radar/satellite gif at the link
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on August 22, 2018, 04:21:27 AM
I really don't want to see a repeat of last year where every disaster seemed to take a turn for the worse.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on August 22, 2018, 03:02:35 PM
I really hope there are ships departing the US with equipment, first responders and provisions at this moment. If this thing continues on it's path this will be a Puerto Rico part 2. That there are many islands makes it worse.

BTW Solar panel installations need to be built to sustained winds of 250 mph, not 155 mph. The new climate requieres it.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 22, 2018, 05:33:28 PM
POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE CONTINUES MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
500 AM HST Wed Aug 22 2018
Location: 15.1N 155.3W
Maximum sustained winds: 155 MPH
Moving: WNW at 9 MPH
Minimum pressure: 935 MB
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 23, 2018, 03:23:58 AM
Matt Gray (@mattgraysky)
8/22/18, 6:42 PM
#Lane has the makings of a major disaster across Hawaii due to torrential rain and the accompanying flash floods, mudslides and landslides. It's this, not necessarily the winds that are the main threat. This image is a general idea of what the rain totals could look like.
https://twitter.com/mattgraysky/status/1032397726619598853
Image below.

Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus)
8/22/18, 7:29 PM
There aren't enough hurricane shelters in Hawaii, so the governor is advising people to shelter in place with two weeks of supplies.
Folks, the national media should be wall-to-wall in Hawaii right now. #HurricaneLane arrives in just a few hours. This is heartbreaking.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1032409410709151744

Governor David Ige (@GovHawaii)
8/22/18, 7:12 PM
I want everyone to be prepared to shelter in place. 14 days food/water/supplies. If you must go to a shelter – take supplies with you. #HurricaneLane #lane #higov #hinews
https://twitter.com/govhawaii/status/1032405054718799872
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on August 23, 2018, 04:04:38 AM
How long this event may last? 48 hours?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: oren on August 23, 2018, 04:21:25 AM
Yes. Roughly between Thu 8AM and Sat 8AM (I guess PST)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on August 23, 2018, 12:22:15 PM
Meanwhile......
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20180823/p2a/00m/0na/022000c
Typhoon Cimaron to pound western Japan, evacuation instructions issued

Quote
The tropical cyclone is forecasted to dump massive amounts of rain and bring intense gusts in the region, and local governments of areas in the typhoon's projected path issued evacuation advisories and instructions to residents hours before the storm's arrival. Many of the cities and towns were devastated by historic torrential rains and subsequent flooding and landslides in early July. Train and air traffic services were also suspended on Aug. 23 to avert possible damage caused by the season's 20th typhoon.

Flooding and landslides are feared in areas where the typhoon is expected to hit, and the JMA has advised residents to be on their guard against such natural disasters. In a message on Aug. 23, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called for early evacuations and for people to take measures to limit damage.

The amount of rain forecast to fall over the 24-hour period ending 6 p.m. on Aug. 24 is 500 millimeters in the Shikoku and Kinki regions, and 400 millimeters in the Tokai region in central Japan. Rainfall is expected to reach 250 millimeters in the Kanto-Koshin region in the eastern part of the country and 200 millimeters in the Chugoku region in the west.

In the Chugoku and Tokai regions, it is predicted that the total amount of rain to fall in localized downpours since the arrival of the previous typhoon, Soulik, could reach 1,000 millimeters.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Pmt111500 on August 23, 2018, 04:39:45 PM
Hawaiji, the homestate of former president. He's not a Kenyan, if you haven't heard. Has Drumpf ordered a HAARP attack as an insult to the people storing the birth certidicate.
More seriously,
Stay safe Hawaiji.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 23, 2018, 07:15:55 PM
“The quicker #Lane weakens the quicker it turns west. This will spare the islands from the hurricane winds, but they'll get Harvey-like rains in some spots. 10-20" will be common but up to 30". Most in Houston picked up 30-35" in #Harvey. The mountainous terrain worsens flooding”
https://mobile.twitter.com/travisabc13/status/1032604124192354304

NHC:
LANE CREEPING CLOSER TO HAWAII
TORRENTIAL RAIN SOAKING THE BIG ISLAND
500 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018
Location: 16.9N 157.4W
Maximum sustained winds: 130 MPH
Moving: NW at 7 MPH
Minimum pressure: 949 MB
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 23, 2018, 10:08:34 PM
We know where Lane's eye is now:

https://twitter.com/NWSHonolulu/status/1032718195109646336
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 24, 2018, 02:47:46 AM
8/23/18, 7:16 PM
Latest high-resolution HMON model has #HurricaneLane making direct landfall tomorrow (Friday) afternoon in Maui. It would be the first hurricane landfall in Maui in recorded history.
HWRF and GFS show something similar. This threat is very real.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1032768445929213952
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 24, 2018, 01:13:17 PM
Via @NWSHonolulu (https://twitter.com/NWSHonolulu/status/1032945147858677760)

Quote
Preliminary storm totals from Big Island: Hakalau Station 31.21", Waikea Experimental Station 23.67".
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on August 24, 2018, 03:09:34 PM
wow. That's a lot of rain.

And interesting video:

Hurricane Lane - 33rd Floor

https://youtu.be/6XREUb0r7E8
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 24, 2018, 07:56:45 PM
“We are being evacuated. The neighborhood is too dangerous as the water from the Wailuku River keeps rising. Fire, police and county officials want us to move about 100 feet down the hill. There are still people stranded in homes.
#HurricaneLane
https://mobile.twitter.com/lynnkawano/status/1032819758129864710
Video of neighborhood flooding at the link.

"#TrackingLane UPDATE (8/23 at 4 PM): #HurricaneLane downgraded to Category 3 storm but #Lane's sluggish pace (~7mph) is raising flooding risks across #Hawaii as NWS extends flash flood warning for East Hawaiʻi Island til 6:45PM ...”
https://mobile.twitter.com/milekalincoln/status/1032809116207435776
Video of floodwaters at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 25, 2018, 03:13:05 PM
More from @NWSHonolulu (https://twitter.com/NWSHonolulu/status/1033330453191827457):

Quote
11:00 pm 8/24/18 Preliminary rain totals on Big Island show 4 stations have reported 40+ inches from #Lane. The highest is Waiakea Uka with 44.88". Flooding remains a primary concern this weekend for some islands.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2018, 03:27:08 PM
Kirk Caldwell (@MayorKirkHNL)
8/24/18, 11:05 PM
#HurricaneLane has weakened to a Tropical Storm, and the hurricane warning on O'ahu has been similarly downgraded to a tropical storm warning. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding from #Lane still pose a threat to O'ahu residents. We will continue to monitor the status of the storm.
https://twitter.com/mayorkirkhnl/status/1033188497950007297
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2018, 06:42:27 PM
Melanie Yamaguchi (@MelYamaguchi)
8/24/18, 3:53 PM
Here's what Hilo looked like after #HurricaneLane dumped rain on the Big Island yesterday. Some parts got over 30 inches of rain! (Image courtesy: Tracey Niimi)

Jim Cantore (@JimCantore)
8/25/18, 9:15 AM
Hilo setting another daily rainfall record. August monthly RECORD crushed already and HILO HAS MEASURED 31.85 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE THREE 
DAY PERIOD OF AUGUST 22-24 2018. THIS BECOMES THE WETTEST THREE 
DAY PERIOD EVER OBSERVED AT HILO.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2018, 06:45:37 PM
Greg Diamond (@gdimeweather)
8/25/18, 6:03 AM
Of all tropical cyclones to impact the U.S. since 1950, #Lane is now one of the most prolific rain producers on record

Update. Now #4

(And it’s still raining....)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2018, 08:01:44 PM
Hurricane Lane is now the third wettest tropical cyclone on record in the U.S. (preliminary). One location has now picked up more than 50 inches of rain on the Big Island.

Tropical Depression Lane Pulling Away from the Hawaiian Islands; Flash Flood Watch Continues
https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/2018-08-23-hurricane-lane-forecast-hawaii
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on August 28, 2018, 08:44:38 PM
...LANE POSSIBLY BREAKS HAWAII TROPICAL CYCLONE RAINFALL
RECORD... (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/Products/PNSHFO/PNSHFO.1808271505.txt)
Quote
The Mountain View gage has measured 52.02 inches of rain for the
period from 8 AM HST August 22 when the outer rain bands started
impacting the Big Island through 8 AM HST August 26 after the
trailing rain band passed west of South Point. An unverified
private weather station also reported 58.80 inches during this
same time span. We will attempt to validate this private weather
station report. Both totals indicate that Hurricane Lane has
broken the Hawaii tropical cyclone storm total rainfall record,
pending verification of the data. The previous record was 52.00
inches, measured at Kanalohuluhulu Ranger Station, during
Hurricane Hiki in 1950.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 01, 2018, 06:40:58 PM
Guts up to 330 km/h, moving to Japan.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/hurricane-norman-accelerates-in-eastern-pacific-ocean-hawaii-on-alert/110350/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sebastian Jones on September 01, 2018, 08:30:04 PM
"Super Typhoon Jebi has become the strongest cyclone on the planet and so far in 2018, with a destructive path into the heart of Japan by next Tuesday."
https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/wp2518.gif (https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/wp2518.gif)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sebastian Jones on September 01, 2018, 08:34:39 PM
The Atlantic is showing signs of coming back to life:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5)
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: be cause on September 01, 2018, 09:13:18 PM
I didn;t think much of the names picked for storms this year .. but Florence is welcome to drop by .. b.c.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 02, 2018, 12:37:51 PM
This could become a Puerto Rico like scenario for large parts of Japan. And with so much heat accumulating in the oceans we are probably going to see a Puerto Rico every year somewhere.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 02, 2018, 06:06:14 PM
This could become a Puerto Rico like scenario for large parts of Japan. And with so much heat accumulating in the oceans we are probably going to see a Puerto Rico every year somewhere.

It used to be "a Haiti (https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/haiti-earthquake-anniversary_us_5875108de4b02b5f858b3f9c)" that we didn't want to ever see again.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 02, 2018, 10:12:12 PM
I didn;t think much of the names picked for storms this year .. but Florence is welcome to drop by .. b.c.
The remains of Florence could give the UK its first Equinoxial storm in about a fortnight's time (if GFS is right for once on how and when Florence does the curve to the north and is then captured by the mid-latitudes Atlantic westerlies).
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: pileus on September 03, 2018, 01:33:19 PM
I didn;t think much of the names picked for storms this year .. but Florence is welcome to drop by .. b.c.
The remains of Florence could give the UK its first Equinoxial storm in about a fortnight's time (if GFS is right for once on how and when Florence does the curve to the north and is then captured by the mid-latitudes Atlantic westerlies).

The other global models have trended towards keeping a weaker Florence under a strengthening ridge, increasing the odds of a track into the US East Coast.  Lots of time to go.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 03, 2018, 04:35:42 PM
I didn;t think much of the names picked for storms this year .. but Florence is welcome to drop by .. b.c.
The remains of Florence could give the UK its first Equinoxial storm in about a fortnight's time (if GFS is right for once on how and when Florence does the curve to the north and is then captured by the mid-latitudes Atlantic westerlies).
The other global models have trended towards keeping a weaker Florence under a strengthening ridge, increasing the odds of a track into the US East Coast.  Lots of time to go.
"My speculation that belongs to me" has survived one day at least. Quote from NHC latest discussion on Florence
Quote
"By the end of the forecast period, the tropical storm is forecast to re-intensify while it moves over warmer SSTs and the environmental shear decreases....... By the end of the forecast period, nearly all of the guidance shows a turn toward the northwest,

And GFS shows Florence growing up to be a big strong girl, making the turn and travelling North East by Sept 13th and giving Newfoundland a glancing blow on the way.

Of course looking that far ahead is a dumb thing to do ... but we do it all the time about the sea ice; so why not..
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 03, 2018, 07:49:40 PM
Jebi is arriving.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20180904_03/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 03, 2018, 07:52:47 PM
Since nobody else seems to have mentioned it as yet, tropical storm Gordon is now spinning in the Gulf of Mexico:

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 04, 2018, 10:51:04 AM
A ship hit the airport bridge.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20180904_29/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 04, 2018, 11:01:55 AM
Gordon is now forecast to reach hurricane strength (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/040847.shtm) before landfall:

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 04, 2018, 11:08:18 AM
Jebi is arriving.

Jebi has arrived:

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20180904_25/

Quote
Typhoon Jebi has made its second landfall in Japan, slamming into the country's main island of Honshu. It hit the island of Shikoku a few hours earlier. It's one of the strongest typhoons to make landfall in Japan in 25 years.

Jebi is wreaking havoc on transportation links with evacuation advisories still in place across wide areas.

We're hearing reports that a few people in the country have been injured from the strong winds.

Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of people remain under evacuation advisories in the city of Kobe and also in Osaka Prefecture. Officials say heavy rain could lead to landslides or flooding.

There are also large disruptions to transportation links. Shinkansen bullet train service between Tokyo and Osaka is suspended.

There are other rail service suspensions as well in the Kyoto, Osaka and Kobe areas.

Airline companies have cancelled more than 750 domestic flights scheduled for Tuesday mainly in western Japan.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 04, 2018, 02:35:53 PM
Some footage of Jebi impact here;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mO1eOaytkco

It appears to show hundreds of cars tossed together which caught fire.
Can't imagine how that would happen.
That is, i can see how storm surge washes them away probably but not how this results in fire on that scale.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 04, 2018, 03:05:35 PM
Florence is now forecast to reach hurricane strength at the weekend:

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 04, 2018, 03:47:33 PM
Some footage of Jebi impact here;
...

It appears to show hundreds of cars tossed together which caught fire.
Can't imagine how that would happen.
That is, i can see how storm surge washes them away probably but not how this results in fire on that scale.

Judging by the variety of vehicles, these don’t seem to be EVs.  ICE cars require a least enough fuel in the tank to move them around parking lots and load onto trailers.  If even one tank is punctured or the fuel line is damaged and fuel spills, and a crushed or flooded car sparks... there you go.

And, what’s in those red canisters?  If they are fuel containers, and one that wasn’t empty got stuck between moving cars...
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 04, 2018, 05:33:23 PM
Florence is now officially the third hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic season:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/041436.shtml
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 04, 2018, 06:51:02 PM
Dr. Rick Luettich (@RLuettich)
9/4/18, 9:52 AM
As of the 5 am forecast, adcirc.org is predicting 5’ - 6’ storm surge above normal high tide from Gulfport to Ocean Springs occurring w/ high tide early am on Wednesday. #Gordon
https://twitter.com/rluettich/status/1036975225806700544
Image below.

Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack)
9/4/18, 10:26 AM
@RLuettich Here in Ocean Springs along the backside water levels are already rising.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 04, 2018, 07:15:40 PM
Still a long way to go, but the next typhoon is already on the map. And he's moving in the direction of Japan.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 04, 2018, 07:37:20 PM
I wonder how things are going in the countryside.
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20180905_07/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 05, 2018, 09:51:21 AM
Gordon is now weakening over the Alabama/Mississippi border:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/050603.shtml?

Quote
Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi, northeastern Louisiana, and southern Arkansas, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through late Thursday.

Meanwhile out in the Atlantic Florence is up to category 2:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/050252.shtml?

Quote
A look at the ensemble guidance shows a bifurcation developing by day 5, with the ECMWF favoring a more northward turn, and the UKMET ensembles showing a stronger ridge and a continuation of a west-northwest track.  The new NHC forecast is adjusted westward at long range, in line with the corrected-consensus aids, but don't be surprised if this forecast undergoes some large changes in the next few cycles, given the split in the guidance.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on September 05, 2018, 04:58:15 PM
Florence reached category 3. Forecasts underestimate significantly this tropical cyclone.
Florence is now forecast to reach hurricane strength at the weekend:
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 05, 2018, 06:00:51 PM
Where do they come from ?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 06, 2018, 12:09:34 AM
Florence advisory #26:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/052032.shtml

Quote
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts.  Florence is now a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Florence is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).

Plus waiting in the wings:
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2018, 03:18:15 PM
Craig Setzer on Twitter: "While models indicate a US threat from Florence, history would say otherwise. Typically a storm/hurricane at Florence's location is too far north & east to not recurve away from the US. Too early to tell for sure but this weekend wouldn't hurt to top off your hurricane supplies."
https://mobile.twitter.com/craigsetzer/status/1037550226620514304
GIF at the link shows historical hurricane tracks through Florence’s location.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on September 06, 2018, 05:08:04 PM
I don't know about history. SST's at 30N are warmer than at 18N (See nullschool). There seems to be plenty of fuel.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on September 06, 2018, 07:09:42 PM
Latest forecast sends Florence south of Bermuda in 5 days. Right to hot point which I see in earth.nullschool.net.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Darvince on September 06, 2018, 08:02:21 PM
Hurricanes are more predictable than (specific) sea ice numbers, although this is mostly because effort has been put in to make them predictable, whereas comparatively little or no effort has been put in to make short term sea ice numbers predictable. Saying that, I would trust the NHC forecasts & model spaghetti more than I would trust past analogs. That being said, here are GFS ensemble members for Florence, 7 days out:

(https://i.imgur.com/0QbCDEN.png)

An awful lot of them get awful close to the Northeastern US...
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 06, 2018, 08:09:49 PM
With Jebi they were right on more than a week in advance. And now it looks horrible for Taiwan, and pretty bad for the US
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on September 06, 2018, 08:23:11 PM
Florence is definitely hazardous for Bermuda but United States? There is not such hurricane in history.
Quote
Since 1851, 67 named storms have passed within 200 nautical miles of #Florence’s present location, and not a single one has ever hit the United States. So if this one does, it would be a remarkable outlier.
Source (https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1037725168490242049)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 06, 2018, 08:46:11 PM
I would'nt be supprised. Last year one of these hurricanes went all the way to the UK. That's what they call climate change.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2018, 09:14:01 PM
That feeling when “Past performance is no guarantee of future results.”  :o

John Homenuk (@jhomenuk)
9/6/18, 2:38 PM
The historical tracks of storms within 200 nautical miles of #Florence are going to do your forecast no good here. Forecast models, including ensembles, are suggesting a ridge on the outer periphery of climatology to the north of the storm. Nothing "normal" about this setup.
https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1037772077498023938
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 06, 2018, 10:33:41 PM
Florence is definitely hazardous for Bermuda but United States? There is not such hurricane in history.
Quote
Since 1851, 67 named storms have passed within 200 nautical miles of #Florence’s present location, and not a single one has ever hit the United States. So if this one does, it would be a remarkable outlier.
Source (https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1037725168490242049)
Climate change is - climate change. Reliance on history becomes more problematical.

Florence is giving all the forecasters a bad time. GFS at the moment says Florence will dump a lot of its energy on New Jersey on September 14/15. Tomorrow I bet it will say something different or say the same.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 07, 2018, 09:51:37 AM
I would'nt be supprised. Last year one of these hurricanes went all the way to the UK. That's what they call climate change.

This year a tropical storm has already made it all the way to the same latitude (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2237.msg168527.html#msg168527) as my humble abode here in South West England.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 07, 2018, 09:53:45 AM
Florence is temporarily back down to tropical storm force, and still travelling in the general direction of the US eastern seaboard. Meanwhile a queue is forming off Africa:
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 07, 2018, 10:55:43 AM
Perhaps Hawaii should keep an eye open on Olivia and Guam should keep an eye open on TD26
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 07, 2018, 12:46:56 PM
Florence is giving all the forecasters a bad time. GFS at the moment says Florence will dump a lot of its energy on New Jersey on September 14/15. Tomorrow I bet it will say something different or say the same.

I won my bet that I could not lose. New Jersey is (or might be) saved. GFS is saying by Sept 13th Florence, a very big girl by then, will get so very close to the US, but then retreat into a little circular wander. I can't remember the last one to do that. By the 17th it looks like it is sharing energy with a very nasty low in NE Canada. It reminds me of astronomical images of two neighbouring galaxies tearing each other apart.

Will this actually happen? Probably not. But Florence is certainly one to watch.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on September 07, 2018, 01:34:10 PM
Two tropical cyclones are ready for birth.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 07, 2018, 05:29:12 PM
FLORENCE - from NHC Discussion 33
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/071447.shtml?

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells will begin
to affect Bermuda later today and portions of the U.S. East Coast
this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

2. The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along
the U.S. East Coast next week has increased.  However, there is
still very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track
beyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location,
magnitude, and timing of these impacts.  Interests near and along
the U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of Florence through
the weekend and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 25.0N  51.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 24.9N  52.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 24.9N  54.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 24.9N  55.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 25.1N  56.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 25.9N  59.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 27.5N  65.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 30.0N  72.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2018, 03:25:04 AM
US:  North Carolina

NC Emergency Managem (@NCEmergency)
9/7/18, 8:47 PM
@NC_Governor Roy Cooper this eve declared a State of Emergency and waived transportation rules to help farmers harvest & transport their crops more quickly. @NCEmergency is working w/ locals & feds to prepare for #Florence and any potential impacts to NC. ow.ly/GKFI30lJzVI
https://twitter.com/ncemergency/status/1038227276641587200
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: oren on September 08, 2018, 09:16:49 AM
As already mentioned upthread, that is a very strange path for Florence. From a non-interesting system in the far Atlantic (if you ignored the forecasts at that stage), it is soon to be a major hurricane bearing down on the U.S. mainland.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 08, 2018, 10:25:32 AM
This isn't very reliable of course, but yeah.
Big monster modeled swallowing up Taiwan on the 15th.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: bluesky on September 08, 2018, 10:52:00 AM
As already mentioned upthread, that is a very strange path for Florence. From a non-interesting system in the far Atlantic (if you ignored thw forecasts at that stage), it is soon to be a major hurricane bearing down on the U.S. mainland.

...apparently due to a "record breaking" upper level ridge impeding a North East recurving path for Florence. Also, the wunderground blog mentions that Florence, after  a likely  rapid intensification (low wind shear + very warm water with high heat content) could merge with the 96L low pressure system, and that could significantly expand the size of Florence (apparently something similar happened to Katrina in 2005)… interesting time
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 08, 2018, 02:08:22 PM
Yes, Florence has turned out to be the one to watch, and the uncertainty as to its path is still at that critical point as she approaches the US mainland.

GFS has, of course changed its mind over the last 24 hours. Now, Florence does Virginia and Maryland a damage on the 15th, and then retreats a bit to the South and East to sit and sulk off the coast of North Carolina - getting even bigger as she stalls there until ......?.

But, by golly, all sources agree on one thing - Florence is to become a big strong beast.
__________________________________________________________
ps: That hurricane to the east - moving quickly North - is Helene, getting ready to wallop the UK on the 20th. I know that is a very long time out, but if bbr can do it, so can I.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2018, 03:42:31 PM
Philippe Papin (@pppapin). 9/8/18, 9:15 AM
Tropical Storm #Florence has undergone an impressive metamorphosis.
After being sheared yesterday w/ a partially exposed center, a nocturnal burst of deep convection wrapped around the llc, realigning the mid&low-level vortex.
A better-organized #TC, despite waning convection.
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1038415585095241728
Radar/sat GIF at the link.

It is rather eye-opening how seemingly confident the NHC is about the eventual rise in intensity of #Florence. Considering intensity forecasting is still humbling, it seems that the strong signals (ocean heat content, upper air ventilation) are just too hard to ignore.
https://twitter.com/irisheagle/status/1038414409067053056

Greg Carbin (@GCarbin).  9/8/18, 8:58 AM
#JustaModel but this is the deterministic GFS forecast *24h rainfall* ending Saturday morning, Sep. 15, 2018. #Florence will be bringing the potential for extreme rainfall, among many other hazards, to the East Coast next week.
https://twitter.com/gcarbin/status/1038411376090333185
Image below.  37.88 inches = 962mm :o
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2018, 04:23:14 PM
9/8/18, 10:16 AM
In advance of Hurricane #Florence, US Navy has set the process in motion to set sail all ships from Hampton Roads, [Virginia] -- one of the most vulnerable ports to sea level rise in the country.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1038430955684470784


U.S. Navy (@USNavy)
9/8/18, 9:44 AM
.@USFleetForces orders all #USNavy ships in Hampton Roads area to set Sortie Condition Charlie, making final preparations this weekend in anticipation of getting underway Monday ahead of #Florence that may become major hurricane -  #NavyReadiness
https://twitter.com/usnavy/status/1038422836157861890

Sortie Condition Charlie Ordered for Norfolk-Based Ships
https://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=106990
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2018, 09:18:24 PM
HAPPENING NOW: GOVERNOR @HENRYMCMASTER DECLARES A STATE OF EMERGENCY. #FLORENCE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE. SOUTH CAROLINA RESIDENTS SHOULD BEGIN PREPARING HOMES AND PROPERTY NOW. #SCTWEETS  #alert
https://twitter.com/scemd/status/1038479247713685505

Just in: The mid-day ECMWF model, historically the most accurate for forecasting hurricanes, continues to show #Florence making landfall +/- 100 miles of the NC/SC border. That's in line with official forecasts from @NHC_Atlantic/@NWSWPC.
Likely a Category 3 or 4.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1038493848471838721

 Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus)
Wow. Extreme (modern era record) confidence by @NHC_Atlantic in forecasting rapid intensification of #Florence over the next five days.

The NHC 5-day forecast for #Florence is indeed the strongest they have ever projected an Atlantic tropical storm in the last two decades.
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1038492065242464260
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2018, 03:44:20 AM
9/8/18, 6:56 PM
Virginia has now joined North Carolina and South Carolina in declaring a state of emergency in advance of Hurricane #Florence.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1038561739909095425

Dr. Rick Knabb (@DrRickKnabb)
9/8/18, 5:03 PM
Next 5 days obviously pose extreme danger to the southeast coast, and we must prepare for landfall of a major hurricane. The five days after that don’t look good either. #Florence will probably still be over or near eastern U.S. 10 days from now. Slow mover = inland flood!
https://twitter.com/drrickknabb/status/1038533307485638656
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 09, 2018, 09:27:20 AM
Helene and Isaac have joined the North Atlantic party:
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2018, 12:58:44 PM
Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus). 9/9/18, 2:57 AM
Just in:
Overnight ECMWF model shows a Cat 3/4 landfall -- and then stalls Hurricane #Florence for 4+ days over North Carolina and Virginia.
A nightmare flooding scenario.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1038682816442249216
Image below.


00z GFS literally dumps 8 FEET [2.4 meters!] of rain offshore of the Carolinas as #Florence sits stationary for days.
(single model run disclaimer)
That said, the potential for stalling / looping is very real / physical, and these incredible rainfall amounts are more credible than you think.
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1038657658943954946
Image at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 09, 2018, 01:32:57 PM
Two quotes from NHC Discussion 40

1. A sliver of hope

Florence
will remain in a very favorable upper-level environment while the
cyclone moves over the warm waters over the southwestern
Atlantic.  These conditions favor strengthening with the only
apparent negative factor being nearby dry air,
which will likely
remain away from the inner core due to the low shear conditions.

2. Not good at all
The models are in agreement that Florence is likely to slow
down near the end of the forecast period as a blocking high
pressure ridge builds to the north of the hurricane.

GFS has Florence doing real damage for at least 4 days (14th to 18th) before escaping North East
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 09, 2018, 04:44:18 PM
Looks like a small one is coming your way Archimid. On which side of the island are you living ?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on September 09, 2018, 07:26:55 PM
I live 500m from the north coast.  It will suck balls to get hit again. Lines for bottled water, food and gasoline are already forming. That's a good thing. In the past most people waited for the storm to be much closer before preparing. Live and learn.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 09, 2018, 07:57:40 PM
Than it should be ok, windy and ventusky put him both south of Puerto Rico.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2018, 08:05:53 PM
Tropical Storm strength or not, the Gulf Coast will get a soaking in the next three days or so, before Florence hits the east coast.

QPF:  7-day total precipitation forecast, in inches.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2018, 11:03:10 PM
So many roads through the mountains in these states wind through narrow valleys with a base that is just wide enough for the road, a creek, and a tiny bridge to a small house with no yard.  These people will lose everything in this scenario.

Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com (@RyanMaue)
9/9/18, 3:08 PM
Rainfall amounts along the track of slow moving Hurricane #Florence 10-20" with isolated areas in western VA showing over 30"
Obviously inland flooding is going to be a problem if storm forecast remains on current track.
ECMWF 12z: (@weathermodels_)
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1038866716384739328
Images below.

Ross Harris (@crhwx_wvva)
9/9/18, 3:15 PM
@antmasiello @RyanMaue @weathermodels_ In [West Virginia], this map is showing 12-15 inches of rain in the same areas that had some of their worst flooding in history with a narrow band of 4-10 inches in June 2016. This would be *the* flood of the century if this panned out.
https://twitter.com/crhwx_wvva/status/1038868392185352193
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on September 09, 2018, 11:26:40 PM
Yeah, it is not a major concern right now, but I'm monitoring and making some preparations that will serve me for the rest of the season(mostly fuel).

I must confess, I'm scared. I really don't want to live another 3 months without power. I also don't want to experience long hours of howling wind, wetness and all around alien world. To this day every time it rains hard I remember the storm. I use to love the rain. Now I fear it.

My worst fear is that at the current planetary temperature step, rapid intensification becomes normal. I dread the next planetary temperature step up.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2018, 11:57:47 PM
Florence:
NHC:  “all of the hurricane models [show] category 4 strength within 48 hours, which is uncommon given the current intensity.”

Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus). 9/9/18, 5:43 PM
The 5pm @NHC_Atlantic forecast for Hurricane #Florence was the most confident ever issued for rapid intensification of a Category 1 hurricane.
Wow.
NHC called the expected conditions "textbook" for extreme strengthening.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1038905670119170049

Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus)
9/9/18, 5:26 PM
NHC Update, 5pm:
The official forecast still calls for Hurricane #Florence to make landfall near Wilmington [North Carolina] on Thurs at Category 4 strength --becoming the strongest East Coast hurricane landfall in recorded history, tied with Hugo (1989).
And then, a disastrous inland flood.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1038901485466251264
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2018, 12:09:59 AM
Safe harbors are getting harder to find.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2018, 12:20:42 AM
And this is the current US radar.  Rain all around Florence’s targeted land area.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Tunnelforce9 on September 10, 2018, 02:40:22 AM
Seems like Florence will pick up quite a lot of strength
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on September 10, 2018, 03:05:44 AM
@275 If I'm reading that correctly they may need to change the scale. Literally off the scale.   
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2018, 03:28:10 AM
Weather Underground (@wunderground)
9/9/18, 7:53 PM
Tropical overload! On top of #Florence, we're tracking #Helene, #Isaac, #Paul, #Olivia (a hurricane heading for Hawaii), and #Mangkhut (a typhoon fast approaching Guam)
https://twitter.com/wunderground/status/1038938485573312512

More than Flo: The Latest on Helene, Isaac, Olivia, Paul, and Mangkhut by Bob Henson
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/More-Flo-Latest-Helene-Isaac-Olivia-Paul-Mangkhut
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2018, 04:18:56 AM
Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus)
9/9/18, 10:10 PM
Every model we have is now on board with Hurricane #Florence making landfall in North Carolina late Thursday night.

Time to lock it in.

The main questions are now:
How strong? -- likely Category 4
How long? -- likely lingering for 3-4 days after landfall = major flood threat
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1038973050681737216
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on September 10, 2018, 09:04:32 AM
Isaac is category 1 now. So, 3 hurricanes are in the Atlantic Ocean at the same time.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 10, 2018, 01:18:33 PM
FLORENCE
Extracts from NHC Discussion#44
Quote
5.00 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018
Corrected to reflect that the 96 hour forecast point is inland.

....a gradual reduction in the forward speed of the cyclone as it approaches the
southeastern United States coastline.
....the overall spread has increased this cycle.... ...Users are cautioned to not focus on the exact forecast track as the average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about 140 and 180 n mi, respectively.
...The global model guidance also increases the size of Florence's wind
field during the next few days,

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 24.9N  58.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 25.4N  60.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 26.1N  63.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 27.3N  66.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 28.8N  69.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 32.2N  74.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 96H  14/0600Z 34.5N  78.1W  100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
120H  15/0600Z 35.8N  79.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

i.e. likely to be very big and rather slow when it hits the mainland.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on September 10, 2018, 05:32:48 PM
Helene reached category 2. Image from EOSDIS Worldview.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2018, 05:39:50 PM
Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus). 9/10/18, 11:23 AM
Quote
Hurricane #Florence is already a monster—and will continue getting stronger, traversing some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic Ocean until landfall in North Carolina on Thursday.
Florence is on track to become the strongest East Coast landfall (N of FL) in recorded history.

After its landfall, our best weather models continue to show an abject flooding catastrophe for North Carolina and Virginia.
As much as 48 inches (1220 mm) of rain could fall. For perspective, that's almost *double* the previous all-time record for an East Coast hurricane.
Unfathomable.

It's important to remember that, while the forecast can still change, all signs point to #Florence being one of the worst hurricanes in U.S. history.
If you are in harm's way, act now to protect your family. Start your prep process. Help others. Do not underestimate this storm.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1039172596003217408
Radarsat GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 10, 2018, 07:32:06 PM
Update from NHC- Florence is now category #4

WTNT61 KNHC 101556
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1200 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Florence
has continued to rapidly stregthen and has maximum sustained winds
near 130 mph (195 km/h).  The latest minimum central pressure based
on data from the aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches).


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM AST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 60.2W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1230 MI...1985 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: be cause on September 10, 2018, 08:14:16 PM
Florence is becoming a cat. 5 hurricane atm Eric Holthaus reports .. I have withdrawn my invitation for her to drop by .. it seems Trump's America is in greater need of her attention .
It has been an extraordinary 10 days watching the weather models struggle with outcomes .. she has ended up everywhere from Florida to the Arctic .. even Ireland and Spain were options for 1st landfall .
 Now the only option seems to be the East coast I pray the cost in lives is small .. it looks like the economic costs will be enormous . b.c.

ps .. here in Ireland the weather was considered related to the ruler .. the annals celebrate the weather under good kings while famine and hardship was the lot of a bad king . How many major hurricanes hit the USA under Obama ? How is Donald doing ?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: sark on September 10, 2018, 08:48:43 PM
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=loop_of_the_day/goes-16/20180910000000&number_of_images_to_display=400&loop_speed_ms=25

loop of Florence eye clearing today
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2018, 09:03:19 PM
Evacuations ordered for South Carolina coast as Hurricane Florence nears, effective Tuesday
https://www.postandcourier.com/news/evacuations-ordered-for-sc-coast-as-hurricane-florence-nears-effective/article_ecae59d2-b507-11e8-b430-c30c881683a8.html

“About one out of every five South Carolinians are in the evacuation zones.”

The good news:  they’ve practiced reversing the highway lanes to speed evacuation.  The last time they did it, it worked well.

P.S.:  Houston, please watch, and learn!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on September 10, 2018, 11:11:16 PM
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  46 (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/)
Quote
At 500 PM AST...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased near 140 mph (220 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 10, 2018, 11:31:09 PM
FLORENCE
Any of you with family or friends living or staying from South Carolina to at least as far as New Jersey, including considerably inland from the coast, really need to make the phone call to make sure they are taking Florence seriously (and I don't mean a text, twitter or e-mail. Many years ago I nearly lost a brother in the Philippines who had to be shouted at to take the warnings from JTWC seriously).

Extracts from NHC discussion #46 500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018  below.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/102055.shtml

Quote
Unfortunately, the models were right. Florence has rapidly
intensified into an extremely dangerous hurricane,

Notably, the aircraft data also show the size
of the hurricane-force winds has doubled in the past 12 hours.

None of the guidance suggest that Florence has peaked in intensity,
.....
While the intensity forecast shows some weakening
of the maximum winds near landfall, the wind field is expected to
grow with time, which increases the storm surge and inland wind
threats.
The bottom line is that there is high confidence that
Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous hurricane,
regardless of its exact intensity.

It is important not to focus on the
exact forecast track as average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about
140 and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend
well away from the center

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and
a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by
Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the mid-
Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place and follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged
and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over
the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is
expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland
.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch
will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.


4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT  10/2100Z 25.4N  61.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 26.0N  63.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 27.0N  66.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 28.6N  69.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 30.4N  72.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 33.7N  77.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  14/1800Z 35.6N  78.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
120H  15/1800Z 36.5N  79.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 11, 2018, 01:24:38 AM
Meanwhile,

Typhoon Manghkut heading towards N Phillipines, Taiwan and Hong Kong

from TWC Prognostic Reasoning

THIS SLIGHT WEAKENING IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF FACTORS (PRIMARILY, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASED VWS) THAT MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES BETWEEN HWRF (115 KNOTS) AND COAMPS-NAVGEM (70 KNOTS) BY TAU 12. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH ONLY 110 NM OF SPREAD AMONG THE MEMBERS AND, FOR THAT REASON, CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGH.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Paddy on September 11, 2018, 07:55:50 AM
Meanwhile meanwhile, Hurricane Olivia is heading straight for Hawaii for their second Hurricane impact this year, and Tropical Storm Isaac is heading straight for the Leeward Isles. But the big one is Florence.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 11, 2018, 02:42:12 PM
Meanwhile,

SUPER Typhoon Manghkut continues to head towards Northern Phillipines, Taiwan and Hong Kong

from TWC Prognostic Reasoning - much more confident about the typhoon staying strong

AFTER TAU 72, STY MANGKHUT WILL CONTINUE ON A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
THE CYCLONE WILL ENTER THE LUZON STRAIT AND PASS BETWEEN TAIWAN AND
THE PHILIPPINES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. INTERACTION WITH LAND AND
DIMINISHING OUTFLOW WILL PRIMARILY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS GRADUAL
WEAKENING. HOWEVER, BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE A STRONG
100-KNOT TYPHOON BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF HONG
KONG. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CTCX AS THE
LONE LEFT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

If CTCX is correct, the Phillipines will get the full force of the typhoon when it is at well over 115 knots at landfall.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2018, 03:27:30 PM
North Carolina-sized Hurricane Florence makes its way to North Carolina
Quote
At the coast, Florence could bring 15 to 20 feet [4.5 to 6.1 meters] of storm surge, enough to eclipse the East Coast record and overwhelm fragile and densely-populated barrier islands.

After making landfall, the most reliable weather models show Florence stalling over the Carolinas and Virginia for up to four days, similar to what happened in Texas with Hurricane Harvey last year. The deluge could extend for hundreds of miles inland.

Florence’s slow movement after landfall is expected to bring 20 to 40 inches [500 to 1000 mm] of rain to inland parts of North Carolina and Virginia, with floodwaters enhanced by the rainfall-squeezing effect of the Appalachian Mountains. If that forecast holds, North Carolina’s state hurricane rainfall record of 27 inches set during Floyd in 1999 could be shattered.

All that rain would fall on already wet soil, worsening the potential deluge. Over the past 60 days, parts of the region have received nearly double the amount of rain seen in a typical summer. ...
https://grist.org/article/north-carolina-sized-hurricane-florence-makes-its-way-to-north-carolina/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2018, 03:32:34 PM
Tropical Storm Olivia approaches Hawaii with wind, rain
Quote
Forecasters say Olivia may drop 10 to 15 inches (25 to 38 centimeters) of rain on the Big Island and Maui County, though some areas could get 20 inches (50 centimeters.)
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/weather/sns-bc-us--tropical-weather-hawaii-20180910-story.html
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 11, 2018, 04:29:12 PM
FLORENCE and the NOAA forecasters.

What an awesome responsibility. Think about it. One million people made to leave home due to the mandatory evacuation issued from a forecast for something happening in 3 days time.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: bluesky on September 11, 2018, 06:03:09 PM
Hurricane Hal's storm surge blog post on the potential impact of hurricane Florence storm surge: a  surge of up to 20 feet is possible for a cat 3 to 4 landfall in North Carolina, however the footprint should be less than cat 3 or 4 previous hurricanes due to Florence being somewhat smaller in size, but there is a wild card, if the hurricane stalls before landing the storm surge could increase dramatically and impact and much longer length of coast. The blog also overview the potential for exceptional rainfall and catastrophic and widespread flooding event following a stall after landfall


http://hurricanehalssb.blogspot.com/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 11, 2018, 06:38:13 PM
Hurricane Hal's storm surge blog post on the potential impact of hurricane Florence storm surge: a  surge of up to 20 feet is possible for a cat 3 to 4 landfall in North Carolina, however the footprint should be less than cat 3 or 4 previous hurricanes due to Florence being somewhat smaller in size, but there is a wild card, if the hurricane stalls before landing the storm surge could increase dramatically and impact and much longer length of coast. The blog also overview the potential for exceptional rainfall and catastrophic and widespread flooding event following a stall after landfall


http://hurricanehalssb.blogspot.com/

Yes, the best case scenario is for Florence to maintain current speed.  That would serve to lessen the storm surge and rainfall over the Carolina coast.  One of the stronger hurricanes to hit the area was Hugo in 1989, which had top sustained winds of 160 mph, a lowest barometric pressure of 918 mbar, and tropical force winds extending out 150 miles from the center.  By contrast, Florence currently has a top winds speed of 130 mph, barometric pressure of 950 mbar, and tropical winds extending 80 miles.  Florence is expected to strengthen some before landfall, and will likely be quite devastating to the area it strikes.  Contrary to Hugo which accelerating upon landfall, Florence is expected to stall, which would increase the rainfall to the coastal areas.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2018, 08:07:34 PM
There are NINE tropical storms wrapping around the world right now. Wow.

(Visualization by Owen Shieh, h/t Marshall Shepherd)

http://untamedskies.com/tropical-cyclones/

https://twitter.com/DrShepherd2013/status/1039303271796678657
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2018, 08:10:30 PM
Yikes

Bill McKibben (@billmckibben). 9/11/18, 11:46 AM
It's rude to say it at the moment, I guess, but perhaps worth remembering that the North Carolina legislature literally banned using the latest science on sea level rise for coastal planning.
      https://abcnews.go.com/US/north-carolina-bans-latest-science-rising-sea-level/story?id=16913782
https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/1039540728085413890

MO:  The state is also complicit in allowing toxic coal ash dumps,, now about to be inundated with 20+ inches of rain - arsenic, cadmium, hexavalent chromium, lead, mercury, and selenium...  with a side order of hog farms runoff...
https://twitter.com/peandj/status/1039571185049198593
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on September 11, 2018, 10:29:01 PM
Quote
It's rude to say it at the moment, I guess, but perhaps worth remembering that the North Carolina legislature literally banned using the latest science on sea level rise for coastal planning.

It must be said! All of us will lose property and wealth to climate change, some of us will lose our lives. These people have no excuse. The science was there but their cowardice and greed got the better of them. They should be treated as cowardly traitors to mankind.

Personally I have made a promise to myself that every time I hear the names of two ex-heroes of mine, Freeman Dyson and Burt Rutan I will out them as climate change deniers. People should know about these cowards like people should know about great accomplishments like the Nobel Peace Prize.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: magnamentis on September 11, 2018, 11:28:40 PM
Yikes

It's rude to say it at the moment, I guess, but perhaps worth remembering that the North Carolina legislature literally banned using the latest science on sea level rise for coastal planning.

of course i understand your meaning but can't help to add that the fact that a person who simply quotes a "rude" face are seen and treated as rude. it's not the messenger who is bad it's the news he conveys and if the news is "not fake" LOL he should not be blamed.

BTW there was a time when rulers beheaded the messenger because the bad news annoyed them so much and they didn't like to hear it / deal with facts. seem to be kind of part of the human way to deal with things to first repress them.

this behaviour remembers me of my cats when they hide their head under the sofa and protrude their back prominently into the air and genuinely believe that if they don't see me, that they can't be seen either  ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: greylib on September 11, 2018, 11:30:20 PM
It's rude to say it at the moment, I guess, but perhaps worth remembering that the North Carolina legislature literally banned using the latest science on sea level rise for coastal planning.
      https://abcnews.go.com/US/north-carolina-bans-latest-science-rising-sea-level/story?id=16913782
Thanks for that.

From the link:
Quote
Republican State Rep. Pat McElraft, who drafted the law, called the law a "breather" that allows the state to "step back" and continue studying sea -level rise for the next several years with the goal of achieving a more accurate prediction model.
She's an ex-real estate agent, which is why she was dead against anything which might stop people buying waterside property.

Her address is given as Emerald Isle - "a town on Bogue Banks Island, part of North Carolina’s Crystal Coast. [Elevation 3.05m]"

And according to her Facebook page, she's hosting a Republican fundraiser next Tuesday...
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 11, 2018, 11:52:26 PM
Quote
It's rude to say it at the moment, I guess, but perhaps worth remembering that the North Carolina legislature literally banned using the latest science on sea level rise for coastal planning.

It must be said! All of us will lose property and wealth to climate change, some of us will lose our lives. These people have no excuse. The science was there but their cowardice and greed got the better of them. They should be treated as cowardly traitors to mankind.

Personally I have made a promise to myself that every time I hear the names of two ex-heroes of mine, Freeman Dyson and Burt Rutan I will out them as climate change deniers. People should know about these cowards like people should know about great accomplishments like the Nobel Peace Prize.
You do not need a gun to kill people. As you know too well, Archimid.

Failure through ignorance is one thing, but the people forcing through changes on environmental protection know the consequences of their actions in weakening or even crippling response to climate change (being but one of a raft of measures being implemented by Trump's all too willing acolytes in the administration). Trumpistan has learnt from Obama how the greatly increased power of the Executive has given them so much more freedom to do what they will without reference to Congress.

It is not rude to hold your legislators and Government to account. It is one of the legitimate functions of a true democracy that needs all the help it can get in these not so good times.

There are days when I think "What a rotten century so far". But maybe things have got to be broken before they can be fixed.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 12, 2018, 01:41:16 AM
Meanwhile the President of the United States of America, the most powerful man in the world, has some technical information for the people concerning  Florence,( presented to you in "Buddy" format).

The storm will be ‘tremendously big and tremendously wet’

while also hailing the ‘unsung success’ of response to Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico.

Now don't you feel better for that.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/11/florence-trump-latest-government-prepared-storm

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: be cause on September 12, 2018, 02:17:08 AM
Hurricanes love Trump ! . I just looked at the last NAVGEM run and it ends (180hrs out) with Isaac in the same spot as Florence is now but looking even scarier !!! b.c.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on September 12, 2018, 03:11:48 AM
ps .. here in Ireland the weather was considered related to the ruler .. the annals celebrate the weather under good kings while famine and hardship was the lot of a bad king . How many major hurricanes hit the USA under Obama ? How is Donald doing ?

 I love ancient wisdom. Things that were true thousands of years ago and are true today are things worth understanding.  A cat 4 in a well run kingdom is destructive but the people are in good position to recover.  The same cat 4 in a badly run kingdom is catastrophic.  I can see how they came to that conclusion.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 12, 2018, 05:16:43 AM
Since the issue of category expansion has again been discussed, this time in Washingon Post, no less, https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/09/11/category-climate-change-may-cause-more-hurricanes-rapidly-intensify/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.039450ae3c41

It's time to put in a link to my blog made next week after haiyan
http://erimaassa.blogspot.com/2013/11/haiyan-scale.html?m=1
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 12, 2018, 10:54:32 AM
Ventusky just got a little better by adding a feature giving you the names of the storms now;
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=11;-156;2&l=gust
Manghkut looks like a beast but what is up with Helene?
She appears to be heading for Spain, France or England but gets swallowed up by a huge system up north.
And Isaac looks like it's following the path of Irma last year towards the ravaged islands.
Hope that one follows the models and loses strength.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on September 12, 2018, 11:29:45 AM
Florence is not getting stronger. Florence is getting bigger.
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  52 (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/al06/al062018.public.052.shtml?)
Quote
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

36 hours ago:
Quote
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
(https://pp.userapi.com/c848520/v848520775/72a66/4Y2taI9OaoE.jpg)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Tuk on September 12, 2018, 12:12:56 PM
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2018/adt/text/06L-list.txt
2018SEP12 09:00 (UTC) 122.2kt... 140MPH
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 12, 2018, 01:46:00 PM
Typhoon Mangkhut is enormous and its track has shifted a bit to give the north of the Phillipines a bigger hit with wind up to 140 knots at landfall. There are many islands in the Taiwan Strait that will get the worst the typhoon has to offer.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2018, 02:36:07 PM
NWS re Florence:  “Life-threatening.”  “Catastrophic.”  “Once in a lifetime.” 

Folks south of the North/South Carolina border thought they might not be significantly impacted.  Latest models suggest otherwise.

 Alicia M Bentley (@AliciaMBentley)
9/12/18, 12:23 AM
Animation shows MSLP & maximum 10-meter wind speed assoc. w/ #Hurricane #Florence over the next 4 days (18Z #FV3GFS). Florence is fcst to slow as it approaches NC coast, hovering just offshore for *2.5 days*! Stalling will result in dangerous storm surge & over 12 inches of rain.
https://twitter.com/aliciambentley/status/1039731169015865344
Map with animation at the link.


Marshall Shepherd (@DrShepherd2013)
9/12/18, 6:37 AM
evolving model forecasts suggest disturbing picture for coastal SC, NC, and GA...>Very unusual and dangerous situation. There is still uncertainty once the storm nears land so you MUST WATCH THE EVOLVING FORECAST. Do not look at a static one and say "that's it" #HurricaneFlorence
https://twitter.com/drshepherd2013/status/1039825405572800513
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 12, 2018, 04:02:33 PM
Looks like Wilmington has it bad anyway but if the eye goes North (not f-ing south) of the City the damages should be a tad smaller, no? Storm surge in that inlet would be horrible if the eye went south (not f-ing north) of the place

Camiguin and Fuga Islands would or course be a worse place to be stranded.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: FrostKing70 on September 12, 2018, 04:24:58 PM
I thought the worst wind and storm surge would be on the north or east side of the storm (due to counter clockwise spin); wouldn't that path push more water into the inlet towards the city?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: be cause on September 12, 2018, 05:01:19 PM
I thought the worst wind and storm surge would be on the north or east side of the storm (due to counter clockwise spin); wouldn't that path push more water into the inlet towards the city?
  exactly !b.c.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: miki on September 12, 2018, 05:06:21 PM
Trump administration diverted nearly $10 million from FEMA to ICE detention program, according to DHS document

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2018/09/12/document-shows-the-trump-administration-diverted-nearly-10-million-from-fema-to-ice-detention-program/?utm_term=.71662d8ba4e1


So, they took away $10 million from preparedness and recovery for citizens, from disasters and hurricanes, to cage toddlers and children at the border...

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 12, 2018, 05:16:15 PM
I thought the worst wind and storm surge would be on the north or east side of the storm (due to counter clockwise spin); wouldn't that path push more water into the inlet towards the city?

Oops, of course, my bad. Fixed the message.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 12, 2018, 05:25:31 PM
Barijat is hitting the south of China right now. Just a few days before Mangkhut will hit the same area. So the land will already be pretty wet before Mangkhut arrives. That's almost the same situation as with florence, only that there are two typhoons.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: mostly_lurking on September 12, 2018, 05:31:36 PM
Trump administration diverted nearly $10 million from FEMA to ICE detention program, according to DHS document


You can keep the vomit inside. Do you know what FEMA's budget is ? Over 1 Billion. This 1% given to ICE is a drop in the bucket and has zero impact on preparedness for this hurricane.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 12, 2018, 05:38:20 PM
Trump also runs a 1000 billion deficit, to keep everything that runs on subsidies running. And who is running on subsidies ?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 12, 2018, 06:33:52 PM
Trump also runs a 1000 billion deficit, to keep everything that runs on subsidies running. And who is running on subsidies ?

Everyone, until the inevitable hits the proverbial.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2018, 06:36:28 PM
Hurricane Florence Could Unleash Pig Shit, Coal Ash, Industrial Waste
Quote
The forecast for Hurricane Florence is about as ominous as it gets. The National Weather Service—a bastion of calm forecast language—said the storm has “the potential for unbelievable damage.” And part of what’s so disconcerting is what could be damaged as Florence plows into the Carolinas this week.

The storm is headed into the heart of an industrial wasteland festooned with pig shit lagoons, piles of toxic leftovers from burning coal, and Superfund sites. With Florence forecast to dump rain that can be measured in feet, these sites run the real risk of sending their waste into rivers, forests, and people’s yards. ...
https://earther.gizmodo.com/hurricane-florence-could-unleash-pig-shit-coal-ash-in-1828977086
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: jacksmith4tx on September 12, 2018, 07:00:09 PM
https://qz.com/1386850/trump-policies-have-left-fema-and-the-epa-weaker-ahead-of-hurricane-florence/
Quote
The US Environmental Protection Agency plays a crucial role in cleaning up contaminated water, mitigating chemical and other spills after a storm. But Trump’s all-out war on the agency that he promised to destroy while he was on the campaign trail has decimated its ranks to levels not seen since the Reagan administration, as the Washington Post reports, with a net 1,200 fewer workers in the past 18 months.
...
Weakened chemical and factory regulations

The Trump administration has rolled back rules that related to chemical manufacturers, power plants, and others in industry, which could make it harder to identify toxic spills, environment experts say.
...

Texas shows the way on how to deal with toxic pollution: Ignore it!

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/11/report-texas-rules-lax-cleanup-polluted-sites/
Quote
The report also found that Texas’ benchmarks are significantly weaker than those used by the federal government to determine whether a site is eligible for Superfund status.

“On average, for all chemicals targeted by Texas and the EPA, the strictest Texas benchmarks tolerate soil pollution at a rate nearly 14 times greater than the benchmarks used to score potential Superfund sites and groundwater pollution at a rate nearly 35 times higher,” according to the report, which emphasizes that the disparity is particularly stark for carcinogenic contaminants.

While Texas benchmarks for pollutants that are not thought to cause cancer are 4.5 percent stronger than federal Superfund thresholds, the report found that they are 1,682 percent weaker for known carcinogens.

“It is fair to say that the more dangerous a pollutant, the less emphasis Texas puts on cleaning it up,” the report concludes.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 12, 2018, 07:30:45 PM
Is there a risk for the nuclear power plants in that area. There are a half dozen of them.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 12, 2018, 07:46:13 PM
Looks like Isaac is one to watch too, but still far out.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2018, 07:46:46 PM
"Meanwhile, in the West Pac, Super Typhoon #Mangkhut - the stadium effect within the eye is spectacular - #Himawari 2.5 min rapid scan"
https://twitter.com/DanLindsey77/status/1039830311025209344
GIF at the link.


NHC_TAFB on Twitter: "Wave heights to 83 ft [25 m] were measured early this morning under the NE quadrant of Hurricane Florence. These enormous waves are produced by being trapped along with very strong winds moving in the same direction the storm's motion. #HurricaneFlorence"
https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1039882107399622657
Data/sat image at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 12, 2018, 07:53:47 PM
If more of these one in 500 year storms keep moving in, like Harvey and Irma last year. It will become hard to call them one in 500 year storms.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: TerryM on September 12, 2018, 08:26:11 PM
If more of these one in 500 year storms keep moving in, like Harvey and Irma last year. It will become hard to call them one in 500 year storms.


The annual 500 year storms? :(


I think the Storms of James Hansen's Grandchildren are nipping at his children's heels.
Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 12, 2018, 09:20:06 PM
The nuclear powerplants go down during Florence.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-12/florence-heads-for-duke-nuclear-reactors-near-carolina-s-coast
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: FrostKing70 on September 12, 2018, 09:38:02 PM
Isaac is expected to be ripped apart by high wind shear over the weekend, and not have enough energy left to reform.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 12, 2018, 10:23:37 PM
Let us hope, because the water in the Gulf is hot.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on September 12, 2018, 10:39:18 PM
Another one has 20% chance to appear in 5 days.

Update: subtropical storm Joyce has formed.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 13, 2018, 12:29:17 AM
TYPHOON MANGKHUT

It just gets worse. Florence - Thursday to ? ? ?

Mangkhut - Saturday / Sunday for the Phillipines @ 135 Knots
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 13, 2018, 12:48:25 AM
Hurricane Florence

Climate Signals (@ClimateSignals)
9/12/18, 6:04 PM
Possibly first ever pre-event attribution study (!): due to #climatechange "rainfall will be increased by over 50%...storm will remain at a high category on the SaffirSimpson scale for longer...and storm is approximately 80 km in diameter larger at landfall" #Florence https://twitter.com/climatesignals/status/1039998214781382657

SoMAS.SBU (@SoMAS_SBU)
9/12/18, 5:59 PM
Dr Kevin Reed & grad student Alyssa Stansfield at @stonybrooku @SoMAS_SBU, Michael Wehner & @weatherczar present 1st advance forecasted attribution statements on #HurricaneFlorence about the human influence on a tropical cyclone. #farbeyond
https://twitter.com/somas_sbu/status/1039996966015524870
Image below.  Left, from GFS model.  Right, with climate change signal removed.

Estimating the potential impact of climate change on Hurricane Florence | Climate Extremes Modeling Group
https://you.stonybrook.edu/kareed/2018/09/12/estimating-the-potential-impact-of-climate-change-on-hurricane-florence/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 13, 2018, 02:59:46 AM
Forget FEMA.  Waffle House is on the case!
(These small, sit-down restaurants are known for getting back up and running — even if only partially — after major storms.  FEMA has actually used them as a guide to know where conditions are worst!)

Waffle House News (@WaffleHouseNews)
9/11/18, 4:08 PM
The @WaffleHouse Storm Center is activated and monitoring #Florence. Plan ahead and be safe.
https://twitter.com/wafflehousenews/status/1039606662234075137
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 13, 2018, 03:04:16 AM
In Hurricane Florence’s Path: Giant Toxic Coal Ash Piles
Quote
Dozens of toxic coal ash piles across the Southeast are in the path of what is forecast to be days of torrential rains and flash flooding from Hurricane Florence.

Environmental advocates are warning that the giant impoundments, often built beside waterways, are at risk of spills or collapsing. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/12092018/toxic-coal-ash-ponds-hurricane-florence-flood-collapse-risk-north-carolina-virginia
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 13, 2018, 03:37:08 AM
Philippe Papin (@pppapin)
9/12/18, 2:49 PM
This is a hall of fame tropical weather outlook map right here. I've never seen anything like this!

#Florence, #Helene, #Issac, #95L, #96L, & lets just throw in another 20% baroclinicity induced system for the heck of it.

Yes its peak season, but this is getting ridiculous.
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039949240854700033
Image below. 96L is now “Joyce.”
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 13, 2018, 04:14:52 AM
Helene goes to Ireland.
It happened in the sixties, it happened last year.
Now 2 years in a row?

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: sark on September 13, 2018, 06:09:51 AM
how is Mangkhut's eyewall replacement being observed right now? Did it break a bunch of weather models?  Did GFS just become more reliable in the next 24 hours than ECMWF?  How many models did this thing break

I'm wondering if this storm is very knowable right now?  It is currently about Noon at supertyphoon Mangknut and it is approaching the sea between Taiwan and the del Norte Phillipines:

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/ds/gfs_world-ced2_sstanom_1-day.png
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Paddy on September 13, 2018, 06:41:38 AM
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Barijat is starting to bring heavy rainfall to tge same area of southern China that Mangkhut is heading for, meaning that when the latter hits the mainland, it's likely the soil will already be waterlogged...

https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-storm-barijat-aims-for-southern-china-with-tropical-rain-late-this-week/70006032
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on September 13, 2018, 07:17:06 AM
Florence weakens but still has a big area of hurricane force winds about 200 km in diameter.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Neven on September 13, 2018, 10:18:29 AM
Post by new member:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2018/adt/text/06L-list.txt
2018SEP12 09:00 (UTC) 122.2kt... 140MPH
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on September 13, 2018, 02:20:16 PM
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 56A (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/al06/al062018.public_a.056.shtml?)
Quote
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 75.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

Florence is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: FrostKing70 on September 13, 2018, 08:52:57 PM
And now Joyce joins the group.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: magnamentis on September 13, 2018, 09:20:14 PM
is the thought that the hurricane's paths will shift a few hundred kilometers north long term totally off or not.

i mean if the climate gets warmer the zone where cool air and cooler waters meet warm air and warmer waters should be a bit higher up north or lower down south in the SH hence those hurricanes, following a certain logic as to what keeps them running, would make me think that this could be the case, just dunno all the factors that matter. anyone with insight who can tell ?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: bluesky on September 13, 2018, 10:27:38 PM
is the thought that the hurricane's paths will shift a few hundred kilometers north long term totally off or not.

i mean if the climate gets warmer the zone where cool air and cooler waters meet warm air and warmer waters should be a bit higher up north or lower down south in the SH hence those hurricanes, following a certain logic as to what keeps them running, would make me think that this could be the case, just dunno all the factors that matter. anyone with insight who can tell ?

It has already been already established by researches, notably Kerry Emanuel, MIT, an expert in hurricane, confirms in the following presentation at the American Meteorological Society, together with increased frequency of more intense hurricanes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5kWuVHQxfA


Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: magnamentis on September 13, 2018, 11:46:36 PM
@bluesky

thanks for the feedback and the linked video  :)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 14, 2018, 12:57:05 AM
Hurricane Florence: storm surge due to the large wind field.

NHC 5pm update Thurs Sept 13:
“Water levels are increasingly quickly on the western side of Pamlico Sound.  A gauge at Cedar Island, North Carolina, recently recorded a water height of about 4 feet above normal levels.”

Flooding at North Topsail Beach.
https://mobile.twitter.com/z_lowder14/status/1040270054842093569
Image below.

Road/river flooding caused by storm surge reported 90 miles inland:
https://twitter.com/nwsmoreheadcity/status/1040361201413316608
Photos at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 14, 2018, 11:43:02 AM
Super Typhoon Mangkhut

Northern Philippines getting 6 to 12 hours of destruction.
145 knots, gusts to 175 knots.

Just look at the size of the damn thing.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 14, 2018, 11:56:19 AM
New Bern, North Carolina

Residents 'trapped on roofs and in vehicles' as Hurricane Florence nears coast
https://abcnews.go.com/US/residents-trapped-roofs-vehicles-hurricane-florence-nears-coast/story?id=57818220

“Opinion: Don't condemn people who don't evacuate for #HurricaneFlorence
Packing up and leaving assumes a level of privilege many people might not think about. ”
Don't Condemn People Who Don't Evacuate for Hurricane Florence
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/dont-condemn-people-who-dont-evacuate-for-hurricane-florence/

The moment the power flickered out in New Bern as Florence continues to send storm surge inland.
https://mobile.twitter.com/blkahn/status/1040408182756175872
Brief video clip at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 14, 2018, 01:47:18 PM
is the thought that the hurricane's paths will shift a few hundred kilometers north long term totally off or not.

i mean if the climate gets warmer the zone where cool air and cooler waters meet warm air and warmer waters should be a bit higher up north or lower down south in the SH hence those hurricanes, following a certain logic as to what keeps them running, would make me think that this could be the case, just dunno all the factors that matter. anyone with insight who can tell ?

The path of hurricanes is controlled largely by the prevailing steering currents.  Assuming no change in atmospheric winds (highly unlikely), then the storms could last slightly longer and travel slightly further.  A few kilometers, but I do not know about a few hundred.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sebastian Jones on September 14, 2018, 04:19:16 PM
is the thought that the hurricane's paths will shift a few hundred kilometers north long term totally off or not.

i mean if the climate gets warmer the zone where cool air and cooler waters meet warm air and warmer waters should be a bit higher up north or lower down south in the SH hence those hurricanes, following a certain logic as to what keeps them running, would make me think that this could be the case, just dunno all the factors that matter. anyone with insight who can tell ?
A key requirement for hurricanes to form is the presence of warm water, which is why tropical storms/hurricanes are tropical...If the planet warms sufficiently that 25 degree plus water is found further north, then it is possible that a hurricane could exist further north than currently. Of course if the water around , for example, Iceland, warmed up that much, hurricanes would be pretty low on our list of impacts.

The path of hurricanes is controlled largely by the prevailing steering currents.  Assuming no change in atmospheric winds (highly unlikely), then the storms could last slightly longer and travel slightly further.  A few kilometers, but I do not know about a few hundred.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on September 14, 2018, 07:10:56 PM
Is climate change making hurricanes worse?

https://www.theguardian.com/weather/ng-interactive/2018/sep/11/atlantic-hurricanes-are-storms-getting-worse

Quote
Two common measures used to judge whether hurricanes are becoming worse are the number of storms per year and the strength of each storm. Based on the total number of named storms, there has been an increase since the start of the 20th century.

 Data heavy piece. Lots of great graphs!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 14, 2018, 07:55:00 PM
An increase ? It's more than a doubling in large hurricanes.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 14, 2018, 08:07:05 PM
Hurricane Florence

Alex Lamers (@AlexJLamers) 9/13/18, 11:54 PM
This is a 36 hour forecast loop from the 8 PM HRRR model. Just look at how slow that thing moves. And how those bands to the east just pummel the same areas for hours and hours. Not good.
https://twitter.com/alexjlamers/status/1040448686801735680
Radar/sat GIF at the link.


Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) 9/14/18, 12:32 PM
Radar estimated rainfall totals in Hurricane Florence already topping 20 inches. A new all-time East Coast hurricane rainfall record (28" or more) is looking like a lock.
Thread [by Katharine Hayhoe] on the relationship between Florence's rainfall and climate change [at this link]:
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1040639332929990657
Image below.

Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) 9/14/18, 1:21 PM
New analysis: Hurricane Florence will be a >1000 year rainfall event for parts of North Carolina.
This will likely be the heaviest rainstorm to hit the East Coast in recorded history.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1040651830047461377
Image below.

Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) 9/14/18, 1:33 PM
With 10-15" of rain forecast, I'm starting to get pretty worried about Charlotte -- the largest city in North Carolina.
Latest analysis shows Florence will be a 500-1000 year rainfall event there.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1040654752625975297
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 15, 2018, 01:21:53 PM
TROPICAL STORM HELENE is headed for the U.K. / Ireland.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 15, 2018, 01:23:05 PM
https://watchers.news/2018/09/14/super-typhoon-mangkhut-ompong-makes-landfall-in-northern-philippines-as-one-of-the-strongest-on-record/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 15, 2018, 02:12:38 PM
It's going to stay rainy for the next 8 to 9 days in the area where Florence is now. That's going to be a mess.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 15, 2018, 05:03:31 PM
Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) 9/15/18, 10:57 AM
With a preliminary 30.58" [ .78 meters!] so far, Florence has now broken the all-time North Carolina hurricane rainfall record.
It has also broken the all-time rainfall record for any East Coast state north of Florida.
And it's still raining.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1040977939230334977
Images below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 15, 2018, 09:32:35 PM
Typhoon Mangkhut slammed into the northern Philippines, bringing ferocious gale-force winds up to 200 mph, destroying homes and causing severe flooding. It's the strongest storm anywhere on the planet in 2018
https://twitter.com/cnn/status/1041028927097978880
Photos at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 15, 2018, 09:38:54 PM
Dr. Rick Knabb (@DrRickKnabb)
9/15/18, 2:17 PM
That primary band far east of the center of #Florence that has been persistently aimed onshore in the Jacksonville, NC area will probably align over the Wilmington area tonight, and far inland from there of course. More flash flood warnings and emergencies likely tonight, Sunday.
https://twitter.com/drrickknabb/status/1041028164795998208
Image below. GIF at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 16, 2018, 02:16:17 PM
WOW!!! Buildings in #HongKong have been widely damaged this morning in #TyphoonManghut report: @guillamephotos #Mangkhut #china
https://mobile.twitter.com/stormchaserukeu/status/1041247496960462848
Video clip at the link.

"#Shenzhen this morning with cranes falling off buildings. Report here by @PavelSidlo #TyphoonManghkut #Mangkhut #HongKong
https://mobile.twitter.com/stormchaserukeu/status/1041282878280216576
Video clip at the link.

 "Scary weather in #Hongkong this morning with #TyphoonManghkut affecting the city. Quite a few houses have been damaged... #Mangkhut report: @Dualman"
https://mobile.twitter.com/stormchaserukeu/status/1041274829901586432
Video clip from inside as windows break, at the link.

"Conditions in ShenZhen, this afternoon 16th September with #TyphoonManghkut affecting the area. Thanks to @NicolasTanev #HongKong #mangkut "
https://mobile.twitter.com/stormchaserukeu/status/1041210201955872768
Video clip at the link.

"WOW!!! #Shenzhen #HongKong this morning trees have been damaged or knocked over widely... #Mangkhut #TyphoonManghkut ..."
https://mobile.twitter.com/stormchaserukeu/status/1041276741661216769
Video clip at the link.

"Just took these in Hung Hom waterfront in Hong Kong . Windows broken and shredded glasses everywhere. At a point I can I heard shredded glasses/ or something else hitting the car @SCMPNews #mangkhut"
https://mobile.twitter.com/phila_siu/status/1041220887633027075
Photos at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 16, 2018, 02:35:36 PM
"Rainfall event not quite half over in North Carolina. So far 4 Trillion gallons have fallen across state & 6 Trillion more are in the forecast. #Florence”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1040981559149510657
Images below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 16, 2018, 04:29:39 PM
"It's already been said, but the forecast for #Florence by @NHC_Atlantic was pretty remarkable. Here's the entire forecast loop for Florence since it's initial formation off the African coast.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/wxdeflitch/status/1040733772243591168
Image below; GIF at the link.

The same weak jet stream that is causing Florence to stall out over the Carolinas is causing unseasonable heat to persist over the Gulf coast....
Image below.

NWS New Orleans on Twitter: "Yes it is Summer still but this is getting ridiculous for mid September. Highs will continue to be in the mid 90s with the heat index approaching 105 in some areas. Lows again in the 70s. Isolated storms today but maybe a few more storms tomorrow afternoon. #LAwx #MSwx”
https://mobile.twitter.com/nwsneworleans/status/1041281878312054784
Temperature maps at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 16, 2018, 05:57:57 PM
Florence waned just in time to spare the coast from storm surge somewhat. That said, I wouldn't want some 80cm of water dropped on me on any occasion.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2018, 12:24:36 AM
Roads to Wilmington, North Carolina Cut Off, Florence Flood Fears Rise
Quote
Woody White, chairman of the board of commissioners of New Hanover County, said officials were planning for food and water to be flown into the coastal city of nearly 120,000 people.

“Our roads are flooded,” he said. “There is no access to Wilmington.”


About 70 miles away from the coast, residents near the Lumber River stepped from their homes directly into boats floating in their front yards; river forecasts showed the scene could be repeated in towns as far as 250 miles inland as waters rise for days.
...
Nearby, a Waffle House restaurant limited breakfast customers to one biscuit and one drink, all take-out, with the price of $2 per item. ...
http://time.com/5397640/wilmington-north-carolina-flooding-roads/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2018, 05:03:47 PM
Raleigh, North Carolina.

NWS Raleigh (@NWSRaleigh)
9/17/18, 9:19 AM
917 am... BREAKING. We've observed a one minute period of sunshine at the NWS Raleigh office in west Raleigh. Last time we had sun was on Wednesday. #ncwx #theendisnear
https://twitter.com/nwsraleigh/status/1041677955871768576
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2018, 06:34:06 PM
More than 1000 road closures across North Carolina right now.
@NCDOT is advising travelers to avoid the state entirely.

NCDOT (@NCDOT)
9/17/18, 11:12 AM
- About 1,100 road closures
- Wilmington INACCESSIBLE by land. DON'T travel, let responders work.
- Sections of I-95/40 flooded. No reopen time until crews assess damage.
- Avoid areas S of US 64/east of I-73/I-74
- drivenc.gov: Use the route dropdown & incidents tab
https://twitter.com/ncdot/status/1041706379055194114
Images below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 17, 2018, 06:49:16 PM
Not a hurricane , but still winds up to 150 km/h for Ireland and the north of the UK.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 17, 2018, 07:59:44 PM
And a couple days later.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: bluesky on September 18, 2018, 12:10:36 AM
Interesting blog post on Air Worldwide website, the catastrophe modelling agency widely used by the insurance and re insurance companies, Air Worldwide reckons that climate change is responsible for up to 40% increase in rainfall intensity generated by hurricanes. And it seems that there is some similarities between Jennifer Francis ' work on jet stream slowing down due to weaker temperature difference from enhanced warming in the Arctic and slowing down hurricanes generating more intense rainfall...

http://www.air-worldwide.com/Blog/Why-Climate-Change-and-Hurricane-Stalls-Mean-Flooding-Rain/

"The record-breaking rainfall from Harvey in 2017, and what will likely be record rainfall from Florence 2018, can be partially explained by three factors, all tied to climate change:
Decreasing forward speed. The decreasing forward speed of tropical cyclones over the last several decades has only recently been identified. One study (Kossin 2018) has shown a worldwide decrease of about 10% since 1949 and a 20-30% decrease in forward speed of storms over land. This slowing is believed to be linked to climate change. As the poles are warming faster than the tropics, the average pole-to-equator temperature difference is decreasing and large-scale weather systems are slowing down in response; decreasing forward speed of hurricanes, tropical cyclones, and typhoons may be the result.
Increased precipitation. Also, let’s not forget that Harvey made landfall as a Category 4 storm and Florence was once at that same intensity category. Very warmer ocean waters obviously can— and do— contribute to such intensity, and the intensity can contribute to increased precipitation. Here’s why. Right at the surface, even over water, the rotational winds of a tropical cyclone deflect inward and ultimately upward because of friction. The frictional convergence is what contributes to the existence of the eyewall, where some of the heaviest precipitation in a storm falls. Increase the intensity and the convergence, rising motion, and precipitation increase too.
More water vapor. Finally, related to the higher temperatures from climate change, is the fact that there can be more water vapor in the atmosphere; it is the strong rising motion in a hurricane eyewall that converts that additional water vapor into additional precipitation. The increase is about 7% for each degree Celsius of temperature increase.
Estimating the Average Impact of Climate Change
Because we have estimates for the impacts of climate change on forward speed reduction and for increased water vapor, for completeness let’s suppose that the impact on intensity (and therefore convergence) is 5%, which is what some published research has shown to be the case.
We can estimate the average impact that climate change is having on tropical cyclone precipitation to be 1.05 x 1.25 x 1.07 = 1.40, or about a 40% increase. That is just an average. That said, in the absence of any climate change, Harvey may have only generated 42 inches for a maximum instead of 60. And Florence would only generate 21 inches instead of 30 (the National Hurricane Center is forecasting 20 to 30 inches for Coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina, with 40 inches in places). And that is just an estimate of the climate change impact in 2018. "

the article on slowed down hurricanes, in Nature, unfortunately under paywall, anyone who would have access would be very welcome:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0158-3

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 18, 2018, 08:26:14 AM
Are there some kind of effects like pulling away rain in other places if they get bigger and move slower ?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sleepy on September 18, 2018, 09:06:44 AM
the article on slowed down hurricanes, in Nature, unfortunately under paywall, anyone who would have access would be very welcome:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0158-3
Thanks for the links, here you go.
Also quoting the last parts:
Quote
The analyses presented here do not constitute a detection and attribution study because there are likely to be many factors, natural and anthropogenic, that control tropical-cyclone translation speed. For example, the best-track data exhibit a global 10% reduction in translation speed during a period in which global-mean surface temperatures increased by about 0.5 °C; however, this finding does not provide a true measure of the climate sensitivity of these related phenomena. To determine the true sensitivity (that is, the expected change in translation speed as a function of anthropogenic forcing), further analyses and numerical simulations are required.

In addition to the global slowing of tropical-cyclone translation speed identified here, there is evidence that tropical cyclones have migrated poleward in several regions. Of particular relevance here, the rate of migration in the western North Pacific was found to be large, which has had a substantial effect on regional tropical-cyclone-related hazard exposure. When this finding is considered in tandem with the substantial slowdown of translation speed over land in this region (30% since 1949), the potential for increased hazard exposure becomes greater still, particularly to fresh-water flooding hazards, which can pose an especially large mortality risk 30. Further compounding these changes in regional exposure, the projected increases in tropical-cyclone rain rate in the western North Pacific for the late twenty-first century are about twice the projected global-mean increase. These recently identified trends in tropical-cyclone track behaviour emphasize that tropical-cyclone frequency and intensity should not be the only metrics considered when establishing connections between climate variability and change and the risks associated with tropical cyclones, both past and future. These trends further support the idea that the behaviours of tropical cyclones are being altered in societally relevant ways by anthropogenic factors. Continued research into the connections between tropical cyclones and climate is essential to understanding and predicting the changes in risk that are occurring on a global scale.

The analyses presented here demonstrate changes in the behaviour of translation speed, but local rainfall totals are also affected by translation direction. For example, a tropical cyclone that follows a looping track over some region could be translating quickly along the loop, but the rainfall totals in the region would still be large owing to the spatially confined track. In 2017, Hurricane Harvey not only translated slowly over Texas but also reversed direction and thus affected the same region over a particularly long duration. There is currently no formal definition of what constitutes a ‘stalled track’, although this term has been used to describe the track of Hurricane Harvey. Future studies that focus on tropical cyclones that remain geographically constrained for extended durations are warranted.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: bluesky on September 18, 2018, 10:09:30 AM
Thanks Sleepy, much appreciated  :)!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 18, 2018, 12:41:39 PM
The remnants of Hurricane Helene have been reborn as "Storm Ali".

A sex-change, just like (but in reverse) the recent reincarnation of "Doctor Who".
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2018, 01:35:02 PM
Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) 9/18/18, 1:16 AM
Interstate 40 -- Wallace, North Carolina
Before and after Florence
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1041918912634519552
Images below.

Quote
919 risk pool (@oneduran)
9/18/18, 1:49 AM
@EricHolthaus trying to get word out in Piedmont NC communities about airdrops of supplies occurring from RDU near Raleigh to severely impacted communities like Lumberton & Wilmington, this thread summarizes what organizers on-site are being told is desperately needed.
https://twitter.com/oneduran/status/1041927214244265984

Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill: #HurricaneFlorence organizers with A JUST FLORENCE RECOVERY/ OPERATION AIRDROP are coordinating multiple flights daily bringing hurricane relief supplies from RDU into severely impacted areas like #Lumberton and  #WilmingtonNC

They are in touch with folks in those communities, who have stated there is a desperate, urgent need for infant formula, especially in #Lumberton. Clean water is accessible, and liquid is heavy, so powdered formula is preferable.

Other needs are for disposable baby bottles with liners (due to lack of sterilization facilities) and diaper rash cream (due to humidity combined with limited washing facilities). Use the 'no parking' area in front of the building where supplies are being held for unloading.

Non-perishable foods & basic first aid supplies are also urgently needed so please donate what you can, but a top priority right now for Lumberton is powdered infant formula. Bottled water is not needed since it’s too heavy to fly efficiently. Thanks for helping out & sharing. ...
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2018, 08:57:30 PM
Florence is the worst flood in East Coast history. Here’s how locals describe it.
Quote
The images streaming in from the thousands of square miles of flooded cities and farmlands across the Carolinas are heartbreaking. From the washed-out beach homes of the Outer Banks to the raging mountain streams in the foothills of the Appalachians, nearly the entire region is underwater. All that rain means dozens of lives have been lost, and hundreds of thousands have been displaced.

Florence’s rainfall data is astonishing. The four-day accumulation of nearly 36 inches [0.91 meters], which was measured in Elizabethtown, North Carolina, is far, far above the previous rain record for a hurricane anywhere on the East Coast. It broke the North Carolina record by nearly a foot. That much rain is more than what scientists estimate a 1,000-year level, 60-day rainstorm would drop in the region, given a stable climate: slightly more than 35 inches. Put another way, there’s a 0.1 percent chance every year that in a 60-day period the rainfall in Elizabethtown would be at least 35 inches. North Carolina took on all of that water in just four days.

And as ocean waters warm and the atmosphere changes, it’s becoming increasingly clear that this storm is not just a fluke; there are more Florences in our future.

The region the storm hit hardest is one of the poorest parts of the state, where virtually no one has flood insurance. As bad as it is, the waters in rivers and streams statewide are still rising.

Grist corresponded with 10 Carolinians who grappled with Florence. Here are their stories, edited and condensed for clarity....
https://grist.org/article/florence-is-the-worst-flood-in-east-coast-history-heres-how-locals-describe-it/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: FrostKing70 on September 18, 2018, 09:47:07 PM
It you haven't read the Weather Underground Category 6 post today, I would encourage you to do so.  Here is one paragraph which stood out for me:

"One of the co-authors of last week’s Hurricane Florence study, Dr. Michael Wehner of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, was also a co-author of one of these Hurricane Harvey studies: Attributable Human‐Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey. Using only observational data, the study found that human-induced climate change increased the chances of the observed 7-day precipitation accumulations during Hurricane Harvey in the most affected areas of Houston by a factor of at least 3.5, and that precipitation accumulations in these areas were increased by around 38% (lower bound, 18%). Their analysis showed that there had been a clear increase in the probability of extreme 7-day precipitation events along the Texas coast since 1950, with a 1-in-100-year event now being more like a 1-in-25-year event."

(I added the bold)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: bluesky on September 18, 2018, 10:31:00 PM
...while Kerry Emanuel (MIT) forecast a 10 fold increase in frequency of extreme hurricane event at the end of the century ( 10 fold increase for Harvey's rain intensity and 10 fold increase for Irma's max wind intensity). However, I don't on which RCP scenario, scientist Kerry Emanuel, calculated these projected frequencies
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: bluesky on September 19, 2018, 12:09:32 PM
Jennifer Francis' guest post on carbonbrief, the scientist explains the possible link between Florence unusual path to North Carolina and intensity, and the high pressure blocking pattern that may be linked to Arctic warming and AMOC slowdown, leading to slower jet stream for the former and higher sea surface temperature along the US East coast for the latter.

A split jet stream with a double peak temperature (from the Arctic to the mid latitude) could also explains the blocking pattern, and that could be related to lower snow cover in late Spring around the Arctic generating inland warming (maybe not for 2018?)

https://www.carbonbrief.org/how-arctic-warming-could-have-steered-hurricane-florence-towards-the-us
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 19, 2018, 02:30:05 PM
...while Kerry Emanuel (MIT) forecast a 10 fold increase in frequency of extreme hurricane event at the end of the century ( 10 fold increase for Harvey's rain intensity and 10 fold increase for Irma's max wind intensity). However, I don't on which RCP scenario, scientist Kerry Emanuel, calculated these projected frequencies

I find this highly speculative.  Atlantic hurricane intensity has not increased over the past century, so it seems that his forecast is on rather shaky ground.  Thus far, there has been no indication that major hurricanes are traveling further north.  Recent rainfall increases, due to predicted atmospheric blocking, may have a better chance of occurring. 
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2018, 04:15:44 PM
Blair Holloway (@BSHolloway)
9/19/18, 9:03 AM
You can't overstate the magnitude of flooding in NC. Check out the NE Cape Fear River near Burgaw. Looks like it is cresting slightly more than 3 FEET above the record which was set in Floyd. That is really something. #Florence #ncwx
https://twitter.com/bsholloway/status/1042398835404926977
Image below.

"NEW: Thread of before & after imagery from inland North Carolina where devastating flooding is ongoing. First, Hanceys Store, NC where inundated farms & homes remain."
https://mobile.twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1042245754671120384
Several GIFs comparing before, and during, flooding.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: bluesky on September 19, 2018, 05:28:28 PM
...while Kerry Emanuel (MIT) forecast a 10 fold increase in frequency of extreme hurricane event at the end of the century ( 10 fold increase for Harvey's rain intensity and 10 fold increase for Irma's max wind intensity). However, I don't on which RCP scenario, scientist Kerry Emanuel, calculated these projected frequencies

I find this highly speculative.  Atlantic hurricane intensity has not increased over the past century, so it seems that his forecast is on rather shaky ground.  Thus far, there has been no indication that major hurricanes are traveling further north.  Recent rainfall increases, due to predicted atmospheric blocking, may have a better chance of occurring.

Kerry Emanuel is considered as expert in his field (hurricanes) I think he has more than 30 years of research in this field, you can look at his researchgate profile:

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Kerry_Emanuel

You can also have a look at my post "Reply #350 on: September 13, 2018, 10:27:38 PM" on the same hurricane season 2018 thread, and you will be able to watch Kerry Emanuel presentation at the American Meteorological Society, his research tends to prove that effectively the path of hurricane is migrating up North in the Northern hemisphere and down South in the Southern, well in hand with warmer sea surface temperature. At the end of last year, there were 3 research papers from 3 unrelated research teams who issued papers on the higher rainfall intensity from Harvey and the impact of climate change on the odds of this event. It is quite easy to find these papers on google scholar.


Additional, last year hurricane Ophelia was the first hurricane so much up North East in the Atlantic, mainly due to exceptional sea surface temperature allowing the cyclone to keep its tropical hurricane status in an area where there has not been tropical storm before:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ophelia_%282017%29

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/asl.813
"During September 2017, the region of observed SSTs with temperatures >26.5°C extended slightly further north relative to the 1993–2015 climatology, and positive SST anomalies were recorded across the eastern tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea (Figure 4c). Indeed, during September 2017, SSTs in the northern Caribbean approached 30°C (Figure 4e), which, when combined with favourable remote forcing from the tropical Pacific, could favour the development and intensification of tropical cyclones (e.g., Vecchi and Soden, 2007)"




According to a NASA study, the very active 2017 hurricane seasons was driven by positive sea surface temperature anomaly, contrary to 2005 and 2010 (very active but with few landfall in the US) which were more driven by favourable atmospheric conditions.


also in:
"The Present-Day Simulation and Twenty-First-Century Projection of the Climatology of Extratropical Transition in the North Atlantic"
MAOFENG LIU et al, April 2017
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0352.1
the paper results shows a trend of moving up North, whether in North West or North East Atlantic of the transition from tropical storm to extra tropical storm, with climate change going forward



ABSTRACT
This study explores the simulations and twenty-first-century projections of extratropical transition (ET) oftropicalcyclones(TCs)intheNorthAtlantic,withanewlydevelopedglobalclimatemodel:theForecastOriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled Model version 2.5 (CM2.5). FLOR exhibits good skill in simulating present-day ET properties (e.g., cyclone phase space parameters). A version of FLOR in which sea surface temperature (SST) biases are artificially corrected through flux-adjustment (FLOR-FA) shows much improved simulation of ET activity (e.g., annual ET number). This result is largely attributable to better simulation of basinwide TC activity, which is strongly dependent on larger-scale climate simulation. FLOR-FA is also used to explore changes of ET activity in the twenty-first century under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. A contrasting pattern is found in which regional TC density increases in the eastern North Atlantic and decreases in the western North Atlantic, probably due to changes in the TC genesis location. The increasing TC frequency in the eastern Atlantic is dominated by increased ET cases. The increased density of TCs undergoing ET in the eastern subtropics of the Atlantic shows two propagation paths: one moves northwest toward the northeast coast of the United States and the other moves northeast toward western Europe, implying increased TC-related risks in these regions. A more TC-favorable future climate, evident in the projected changes of SST and vertical wind shear, is hypothesized to favor the increased ET occurrence in the eastern North Atlantic.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2018, 06:28:01 PM
North Carolina is still closed, almost a week after Hurricane Florence made landfall.

NCDOT (@NCDOT)
9/19/18, 12:00 PM
Here's a look at road closures (currently 850), including major routes such as I-95 and I-40. Travel is still not advised to these regions due to rivers that haven't crested, debris, downed power lines and more. For info. on routes, visit drivenc.gov. #FlorenceNC
https://twitter.com/ncdot/status/1042443357102985216
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 20, 2018, 01:01:38 PM
More technical data from the most powerful man in the world:

“This is a tough hurricane, one of the wettest we have ever seen from the standpoint of water. Rarely have we had an experience like it and it is certainly not good."

The President, during a visit to the Carolinas, told a victim of the hurricane "at least you got a nice boat out of it" when the homeowner explained that one had washed up in his backyard.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/donald-trump-mercilessly-mocked-for-saying-hurricane-florence-is-one-of-the-wettest-from-the-a3940591.html
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: ritter on September 20, 2018, 05:45:55 PM
More technical data from the most powerful man in the world:
I'm embarrassed every time he opens his mouth or twitter account. Truly cringe worthy.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 21, 2018, 10:23:46 AM
Another typhoon for the Pacific
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2018, 07:38:57 PM
Severe tornado in Ottawa, Canada.  Grid damage “worse than 1998 ice storm.”

'It looks like a war scene': Ottawa mayor warns it will take days to restore power after tornado
Quote
Bryce Conrad, president of the Hydro Ottawa, said the storm was "devastating" to the electrical infrastructure, and damage to the grid is even worse than what it sustained from the 1998 ice storm.

"In terms of the magnitude of the damage to our infrastructure — it's bad," Conrad said.

With the Merivale substation out of service, roughly half of the necessary megawatts the city needs to keep the lights on is out of commission. ...

"That station has been hard hit. It's down. It is being assessed. It will take multiple days to restore that station," Conrad said, asking customers to be patient while crews work round the clock.

"When that station comes back on line, power will flow. In the meantime we're trying to redirect power to try to restore power where we can but that transformer station is the problem for us at the moment — this is a multi-day outage." ...
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-storm-hydro-war-scene-1.4834710
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2018, 07:54:56 PM
Along With Flooding, Hurricane Florence Unleashes Toxic Coal Ash
Quote
Coal ash sites at the Duke Energy H.F. Lee plant in Goldsboro, North Carolina, are actively spilling coal ash into the nearby Neuse River. On Wednesday, during a canoe patrol of the flooded area by Waterkeeper groups and Earthjustice attorney Pete Harrison, the group spotted large amounts of floodwater washing coal ash downstream, as well as large swaths of floating coal ash in stagnant areas. The unprotected berm meant to hold the ash in place was eroding away in dozens of locations.

Together, the three Lee coal ash basins hold about 1 million tons of toxic ash that contains heavy metals like arsenic and lead. And they are now completely under water.

But they’re not the only coal ash sites failing amid the storm. On Friday, floodwaters breached an earthen dam holding back Sutton Lake, a former cooling reservoir at another Duke Energy site, the L.V. Sutton Power Station in Wilmington, North Carolina. Waters from the lake flooded one of three adjacent coal ash lagoons, and riverkeepers are now seeing coal ash in the nearby Cape Fear River. On Thursday, the company had activated a high-level emergency alert after floodwaters from the river overtopped the lake’s earthen dam. And a coal ash landfill under construction at the Sutton plant ruptured last week, spilling enough ash to fill 180 dump trucks. ...
https://earthjustice.org/blog/2018-september/along-with-flooding-hurricane-florence-unleashes-toxic-coal-ash

Image: Coal ash leaks from a breached pond at the L.V. Sutton Power Station outside Wilmington, North Carolina.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 23, 2018, 02:54:34 AM
Solar Energy Largely Unscathed by Hurricane Florence’s Wind and Rain
In North Carolina, the #2 solar state, Florence was the first extreme weather test for much of its renewable energy
Quote
Faced with Hurricane Florence's powerful winds and record rainfall, North Carolina's solar farms held up with only minimal damage while other parts of the electricity system failed, an outcome that solar advocates hope will help to steer the broader energy debate.

North Carolina has more solar power than any state other than California, much of it built in the two years since Hurricane Matthew hit the region. Before last week, the state hadn't seen how its growing solar developments—providing about 4.6 percent of the state's electricity—would fare in the face of a hurricane. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/20092018/hurricane-florence-solar-panel-energy-resilience-extreme-weather-damage-wind-flooding

(Cross-posted to Renewables thread.)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 23, 2018, 02:17:13 PM
More Florence aftermath.  Coastal rivers rising again due to inland flooding making its way downstream, long after the storm surge that occurred with the hurricane’s arrival.

Cape Fear River in Wilmington is forecast to match the record of 8.2 feet which was set recently by Florence's landfall and subsequent storm surge. Looks like at least 3 near-record high tides that will likely flood portions of downtown Wilmington.
https://mobile.twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1043572318608535553
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Paddy on September 23, 2018, 03:25:15 PM
The death toll in the Phillipines from super typhoon mangkhut, meanwhile, is at 155 and climbing  https://www.dailysabah.com/asia/2018/09/23/155-dead-after-typhoon-mangkhut-landslides-in-philippines

A very different pattern of damage to Florence; Mangkhut caused less flooding, but a lot more direct wind damage and landslides.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 23, 2018, 08:00:12 PM
Looks like another supertyphoon is developing in Asia.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on September 24, 2018, 02:44:27 PM
Subtropical storm Leslie appears. Six subtropical storms formed in the Atlantic Ocean this year.
(https://pp.userapi.com/c852016/v852016377/d6c5/adPOtBiDz7Y.jpg)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 24, 2018, 10:16:59 PM
Sept 24
Hurricane Florence is about to flood Georgetown, South Carolina
Quote
Authorities in Georgetown County, South Carolina, are urging thousands of people to evacuate ahead of historic flooding in an area where multiple swollen rivers converge.

The county escaped the brunt of Hurricane Florence's wind, but it sits at the mouths of the Waccamaw, Great Pee Dee and Sampit rivers.  Parts of Georgetown County will see at least 10 feet of flooding, forecasters say. Key words: at least. The flooding is expected to begin Tuesday and will last through the weekend.
...
The Great Pee Dee and the larger Waccamaw River have already swollen to record levels upstream -- as demonstrated by the flooding 40 miles north in and around Conway, where the Waccamaw is still rising -- and that water is now traveling downstream at historic levels.  There is no benchmark for comparison, not even the destruction wrought by Hurricane Matthew last year, Hemingway said.
...
The rainfall that Florence dumped on North Carolina has been crawling downriver for more than two weeks. It's now set to inundate the homes and businesses belonging to Georgetown County's more than 61,000 people -- almost 8,000 of whom are being urged to evacuate.

A significant portion of the city is expected to be underwater.

Critical infrastructure is already being prepared and hardened. Along Highway 17, which connects Georgetown to the nearby South Carolina coast and its beaches, flood barriers are being erected.  Officials worry that the flooding could wash away the portion of the highway that links the bridges spanning the Great Pee Dee and Waccamaw rivers. ...
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/09/24/us/florence-georgetown-flooding-wxc/index.html
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 25, 2018, 06:56:41 PM
Trami is already big, and expected to get much bigger the next 24 hours. And on the 10 day chart the next one is already coming.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 25, 2018, 09:09:37 PM
Pic's from Trami
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: harpy on September 25, 2018, 10:04:05 PM
Where is this projected to hit? 
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 25, 2018, 11:51:26 PM
Where is this projected to hit?

Current projected path hits Okinawa in about 3 days or so at 110 knots, then the south of Japan at 95 knots. But confidence in the path is low.

From JTWC- http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

Quote
B. TY 28W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT OR MAY
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AFTER
TAU 24, THE STR WILL RE-BUILD AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72. THE WEAKENING TREND - DUE TO THE SUBSIDING EFFECT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH - WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM AND REDUCE THE
SYSTEM TO 95 KNOTS. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 48, AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY
FROM ITS COLD WAKE, THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE;
PLUS, POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL SURGE, FUELING A SECONDARY
INTENSIFICATION PHASE. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH JGSM AS THE SOLE OUTLIER TO THE LEFT OF THE
ENVELOPE. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK
SPEED AND TIMING OF THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY TRAMI IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS AND BEGINS INTERACTING WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 120, TY 28W WILL REACH THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF KYUSHU, JAPAN. THE SECONDARY INTENSIFICATION PHASE
WILL CONTINUE AND BRING THE SYSTEM TO 110 KNOTS BY TAU 96. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE JAPANESE
ISLANDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, AT 95 KNOTS, THE
CYCLONE WILL ALSO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE NUMERICAL
MODEL ENVELOPE IS AT ITS NARROWEST IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE INITIAL TRACK UNCERTAINTY, CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC LATTER TAU TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 26, 2018, 03:20:17 PM
Super Typhoon Trami, projected path.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 27, 2018, 01:20:36 PM
Typhoon Trami to hit Okinanwa including USAF base at Kadena in 36 hours or so at 100 knots going quite slowly before speeding up to South Japan.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on September 27, 2018, 06:56:13 PM
Lets hope Ventusky is wrong. Because they put 94W almost on top of Okinawa. Just a little week after Rami will batter Okinawa for almost 24 hours. On windy.com they put him much more further south.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Darvince on September 28, 2018, 08:35:21 AM
Meanwhile in the East Pacific, "it seems increasingly likely that Rosa could be a high impact event for Arizona. Nearly all models keeps it at mid-TS strength [45-50kt] while crossing US-Mexico boarder." (http://storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119989&sid=14ec7c32f59555bc4911f442042e6a3d&start=80#p2715623)

Rosa is currently a high-end Category 4, although it will weaken greatly as it traverses the California Current and then makes landfall over the mountainous Baja California. Wherever it tracks will be an 80 to 100 kilometer wide swathe of 50mm/2"+ of rainfall, with southern slopes of mountains seeing much more.

https://imgur.com/FV6gMQ6
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on September 28, 2018, 09:56:06 AM
Medicane.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on September 28, 2018, 04:00:53 PM
Medicane threatens Greece. Image from EOSDIS worldview (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=geographic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2018-09-28-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=3.8527653701865017,28.225517001179753,30.04736764291377,40.67082950117975).
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on September 29, 2018, 09:36:57 AM
Okinawa under Typhoon Trami.

https://www.stripes.com/news/typhoon-28w-trami-39-1.548347
Quote
By DAVE ORNAUER | STARS AND STRIPES
Published: September 28, 2018

6:30 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 29, Japan time: Okinawa has entered what could be a long period of Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E lockdown thanks to Typhoon Trami, a Category 2-equivalent storm that’s approaching the island from the southwest.

Kadena Air Base’s forecast calls for southeasterly 70-mph winds gusting to 80 mph Saturday morning, shifting southwest at 110 mph gusting to 130 in the afternoon, shifting again northwest at 70 gusting to 80 early Sunday and diminishing from there.

The last wind-forecast timeline called for destructive winds to subside at about 3 a.m. Sunday, but that’s entirely up to the typhoon. There is no set period for how long TCCOR 1-E lasts, or when TCCOR 1-R (recovery) will follow. First responders and will survey damage and create safe zones. There may be floods, building damage, fallen trees and power lines. Stay indoors until seasonal TCCOR 4 resumes.

Trami remains forecast to pick up forward speed and rapidly transit northeast, passing 186 miles southeast of Sasebo Naval Base at 11 a.m. Sunday, 134 miles southeast of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni four hours later and 74 miles northwest of Yokota Air Base at about midnight.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 29, 2018, 10:32:05 AM
Medicane threatens Greece. Image from EOSDIS worldview (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=geographic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2018-09-28-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=3.8527653701865017,28.225517001179753,30.04736764291377,40.67082950117975).

Designated as a tropical cyclone in the evening news yesterday. I've had a belief the Mediterranean cannot generate large hurricanes being so narrow, but is this true? By large I mean cat3 and higher, that is. What's the strongest hurricane ever in Mediterranean?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on September 29, 2018, 01:49:11 PM
Medicane attacks Greece. I can see the eye in the image.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Paddy on September 29, 2018, 03:52:17 PM
Medicane threatens Greece. Image from EOSDIS worldview (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=geographic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2018-09-28-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=3.8527653701865017,28.225517001179753,30.04736764291377,40.67082950117975).

Designated as a tropical cyclone in the evening news yesterday. I've had a belief the Mediterranean cannot generate large hurricanes being so narrow, but is this true? By large I mean cat3 and higher, that is. What's the strongest hurricane ever in Mediterranean?

According to Wikipedia, so-called Medicanes seldom get as far as Cat 1 equivalent https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mediterranean_tropical-like_cyclone
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 29, 2018, 05:39:29 PM
Total crop losses from Florence will top $2 billion.

FEMA, evacuees, and mosquitoes
Hurricane Florence Kills 48
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-09-27-hurricane-florence-impacts-carolinas

Florence damaged thousands of homes in the Carolinas: ‘This has been so stressful’
http://www.wbtv.com/2018/09/28/florence-damaged-thousands-homes-carolinas-this-has-been-so-stressful/

Florence hits North Carolina agriculture, drowns 1.7 million chickens
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/18/florence-hits-north-carolina-agriculture-drowns-1point7-million-chickens.html

North Carolina Agricultural Losses From Florence Top $1.1 Billion, More Than Double Matthew's Total
https://www.wfmy.com/article/news/local/nc-agricultural-losses-from-florence-top-11-billion/83-598591370

Losses From Hurricane Florence Could Reach $30 Billion
https://247wallst.com/economy/2018/09/25/losses-from-florence-could-reach-30-billion/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 01, 2018, 08:25:59 PM
The Weather Channel on Twitter: "Typhoon Kong-rey may threaten Japan's Ryukyu Islands, possibly including Okinawa, late this week”
https://mobile.twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1046473786218942464
Image below.

Article:  https://weather.com/amp/storms/typhoon/news/2018-09-30-typhoon-kong-rey-forecast-japan-taiwan-china-korea.html
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 03, 2018, 07:13:30 AM
Though Rosa is only a tropical storm anymore, the area it hits isn't too well aquainted with heavy rains. Arizona, with it's aptly named city of Phoenix gets drenched by torrential rains. Probably later the land of Arizona again returns to the scorching hot temperatures people there are more used to.
 https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/02/weather/tropical-storm-rosa-wxc/index.html

These types of storms hugging the California Peninsula bringing rains far inland might in future come more commonplace. Nowadays they happen every few years, but I guess the water amounts brought to the desert areas by these storms each year are as hard to predict as the monsoons of India.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 03, 2018, 05:21:43 PM
Cross-posted from Floods thread
(dam has, apparently, not yet been breached - more rain in immediate area is not forecast)
Some more info:
https://tucson.com/news/local/dam-expected-to-overflow-on-tohono-o-odham-nation-evacuations/article_e278bf10-857d-5600-b571-e8449f3954bd.html (https://tucson.com/news/local/dam-expected-to-overflow-on-tohono-o-odham-nation-evacuations/article_e278bf10-857d-5600-b571-e8449f3954bd.html)

Quote
A dam on the Tohono O'odham Nation is expected to overflow and could fail due to heavy rain and flooding from remnants of tropical storm Rosa, authorities said Tuesday night.
...
Certain areas of the reservation have received up to 7 inches of rain in the last 72 hours, and rain levels of 3 to 5 inches are widespread on the reservation, said Glenn Lader, a meteorologist with the weather service in Tucson.

He said Menegers Dam is an old earthen dam that's 22 feet high.
Here is a screen print from a KGUN news article (https://www.kgun9.com/news/local-news/nws-warns-of-dam-failure-village-of-ali-chuk-advised-to-evacuate)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on October 03, 2018, 06:10:03 PM
Good. Thanks for the update Tor.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 04, 2018, 05:41:31 PM
Further to Menegers Lake Dam, Tohono O'odham Nation (southwestern Arizona, USA) from the NYTimes (https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2018/10/04/us/ap-us-tropical-weather-the-latest.html):

Quote
7:05 a.m. [Oct. 4, 2018]

A flash flood warning remains in effect for a small Native American community in a remote area of the southern Arizona desert where authorities say an earthen dam still has the potential to fail because the lake behind the dam is still swollen by recent storm runoff.

The National Weather Service on Thursday extended the warning for Ali Chuk on the Tohono O'odham (TOH'-oh-no OH'-tum) Indian Nation's reservation near the U.S.-Mexico border.

The weather service said the dam had "some erosional damage" when it was overtopped by water at some point during or after Tuesday's rainfall from the remnants of Tropical Storm Rosa and that concerns remained about its structural integrity.

Tribal officials said late Wednesday that water levels behind the dam were receding but that its integrity remained "a major concern" and that the tribe is working to assemble an engineering team to inspect the dam.
...

A close call, but I'm still "holding my breath"!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 08, 2018, 01:09:14 AM
10/7/18, 5:32 PM
Tropical Storm Michael now expected to be a Cat 2 into Florida Pandhandle/Big Bend. Most models are stronger than official forecast, this part of Gulf hasn't seen an intense landfall in decades + storm surge with this track could be significant.
https://twitter.com/zackfradellawx/status/1049049830478237696
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 08, 2018, 03:37:51 AM
With this current track Michael will bring more rain to central North Carolina late Wednesday through Thursday.

(https://cdn.abcotvs.com/dip/images/4435257_michaelrain.jpg)

That much rain could cause some problems as the ground is still rather wet, especially in the Sandhills. This could cause flash flooding especially since the ground is still saturated from Florence.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 08, 2018, 04:37:56 AM
The center of the cone now has Tallahassee, Florida in the cross-hairs.  Maybe in a day it will move away - eastward, preferably!  I still remember Hermine (2 years ago), except that I slept through much of it.  Michael is currently forecast to arrive Wednesday afternoon.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 08, 2018, 02:01:59 PM
Tropical Storm Michael: Florida declares emergency in 26 counties
Quote
In the United States, a storm surge watch has been issued from Navarre, Florida to Anna Maria Island, Florida. A hurricane watch is in effect from the Alabama-Florida border eastward to the Suwanee River, and tropical storm watches have been issued from the Suwanee River to Anna Maria Island and from the Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/08/us/tropical-storm-michael-emergency-wxc/index.html

Fortunately, Michael looks to be a fast mover once it hits the States, reducing potential rainfall over the Carolinas.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 08, 2018, 05:37:51 PM
https://www.axios.com/hurricane-michael-florida-intensification-landfall-a06eb75e-1740-41f2-8eda-7e248b9e364e.html

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1049310760004988930/photo/1

Model projections now show declining shear as the storm moves closer to Florida during the next two to three days, allowing for greater strengthening.

Most reliable computer models show landfall near or to the east of Panama City, Florida sometime between Wednesday afternoon and early Thursday.

While calling for the storm to rapidly intensify to Category 3 intensity, the National Hurricane Center's forecast is now coming into line with the upper-end forecast scenarios of most major computer models — though some even show a Category 4 storm.   

... Stay safe Tor
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: oren on October 08, 2018, 07:43:19 PM
Cat 3, wow. The amazing thing is that the initial forecast called for Michael to remain a tropical storm all the way to Florida.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: SteveMDFP on October 08, 2018, 08:30:11 PM
Cat 3, wow. The amazing thing is that the initial forecast called for Michael to remain a tropical storm all the way to Florida.

And Leslie and Sergio are developing and moving in interesting directions.
Can't imagine the Iberian peninsula has much experience with hurricanes.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: be cause on October 09, 2018, 12:03:40 AM
Leslie is an interesting beast . Forecast to be short-lived (16 days ago) she keeps feeding the N. Atlantic with moisture. Over the next 6 or 7 days Ireland looks like being well watered .
 May all other tropical threats fade away .. b.c.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: pileus on October 09, 2018, 02:07:43 AM
I’m under a 2-4 foot storm surge watch here near the water in Tampa, while family a short drive up the coast have a 12 foot warning.  September was an intensely hot month here, the Gulf is fuel for a storm like Michael to ramp up.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 09, 2018, 04:27:41 AM
Quote
... Stay safe Tor
Thanks,
I've asked the trees to stay vertical.  If they do that, we should be fine.  With Michael's eye expected to make landfill rather west of here (albeit quite stronger), I don't expect things to be worse than 2 years ago.   (We were without power for 5 days, though, so I'm not asking for a lot.)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: sidd on October 09, 2018, 05:33:42 AM
"expected to make landfill "

Right on. Lots of demolition debris.

sidd
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2018, 12:30:27 AM
Marshall Shepherd (@DrShepherd2013)
10/9/18, 11:08 AM
Note the red box warning...Historic Storm Surge possible #HurricaneMichael ...Please prepare if you are in this area and then leave if possible.
https://twitter.com/drshepherd2013/status/1049677971685027840
Image below.

NHC at Tuesday 4pm CDT:
Quote
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Michael is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is expected, and Michael is forecast to be a major hurricane at
landfall in Florida.
Weakening is expected after landfall as
Michael moves through the southeastern United States.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/092054.shtml
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 10, 2018, 12:45:52 AM
Re: https://twitter.com/drshepherd2013/status/1049677971685027840 - One of the Twitter replies seems appropriate

Quote
... Less than 50% of the people in the affected areas believe that #climatechange will affect them.   … I wonder whether this storm will change anything?

http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/ycom-us-2016/?est=happening&type=value&geo=county
I'm betting - No.

See also: As storms keep coming, FEMA spends billions rebuilding in disaster-prone areas – “Human settlements have been designed in a way that reflects a climate of the past”
http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2018/10/as-storms-keep-coming-fema-spends.html

Quote
DAVANT, Louisiana (The New York Times) – In the exact spot where Hurricane Katrina demolished the Plaquemines Parish Detention Center, a new $105 million jail now hovers 19 feet above the marsh, perched atop towering concrete pillars. Described by a state official as the “Taj Mahal” of Louisiana corrections, it has so much space that one of every 27 parish residents could bunk there.

But on an average day in the first half of this year, more than 40 percent of its 872 beds went unoccupied, making it one of the emptiest jails in the state, records show. And because of its isolated, flood-prone location, the jail still must be evacuated before any major storm or risk becoming an accidental Alcatraz.

There is but one reason the Plaquemines jail was rebuilt on endangered land, with needless capacity, at immense cost: The sheriff wanted it that way. But unlike most new jail construction, his project did not have to be financed through bond sales or other local revenues, with voters able to hold him accountable. Rather, because the old jail was destroyed by a natural disaster, the cost was covered by federal taxpayers, through a Federal Emergency Management Agency program that is required by law to distribute billions in aid but exerts little control over how the money is spent.

(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL1418WPCQPF+gif/213230WPCQPF_sm.gif)

(https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL14_storm_info_1280x720.jpg)

North Carolina may get hit again - Hurricane Force Winds

(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL142018_wind_probs_64_F120+png/213230.png)
Quote
... "We need a good shower and rain to wash this funk away, but we don't need no 10 inches!" the mayor of one North Carolina community said.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2018, 02:29:48 AM
Hurricane Michael is strengthening rapidly.  7PM NHC update says it will hit the Gulf coast as a Category 4.

Quote
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Michael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Strengthening is expected overnight and on
Wednesday, and Michael is forecast to be near category 4 strength
when it makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle or the Florida Big
Bend area. Weakening is expected after landfall as Michael moves
across the southeastern United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/092344.shtml

Gary Szatkowski (@GarySzatkowski) 10/9/18, 8:12 PM
Unfortunately, #HurricaneMichael satellite imagery getting that buzzsaw look of very strong hurricanes.
https://twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/1049814938892537856

Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com (@RyanMaue) 10/9/18, 8:06 PM
Another side-by-side only 1-hour apart. #HurricaneMichael
Eye is becoming well defined, clearing/warming and symmetric/circular. On satellite, this is a definite Category 4 -- but we will await aircraft observation to confirm ... Not good.
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1049813420508352512?s=21
Image compilation below.  See originals at the link.
—-

Harrison Sincavage (@HRRRison)10/9/18, 8:05 PM
@bryanwx I have a feeling that max storm surge forecast levels may increase—NHC already upped peak surge to 9-13 feet.
https://twitter.com/hrrrison/status/1049813059915657216

Mike Chesterfield (@mchesterfield26) 10/9/18, 8:11 PM
Only a few times in my career at The Weather Channel have I been struck with a total feeling of dread prior to an event... Sandy.... April 27th.... Harvey... & now you can add #Michael to that list. All you can do now is hope people are taking this as serious as they should.
https://twitter.com/mchesterfield26/status/1049814562340593664

Jon Passantino (@passantino) 10/9/18, 8:14 PM
This is looking increasingly bad. Michael now on track to become the strongest US hurricane landfall of 2018 and potentially the region’s strongest on record.
https://twitter.com/passantino/status/1049815442615750656

BuzzFeed Storm (@BuzzFeedStorm)10/9/18, 7:56 PM
Hurricane #Michael is getting much better organized and is now forecast to be near Category 4 strength when it makes landfall Wednesday on the Florida panhandle.
https://twitter.com/buzzfeedstorm/status/1049810792667738112
Radar loop at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2018, 03:00:51 AM
No joke:  if the Waffle House is closing, conditions are extremely dangerous.

“Waffle House prides itself on staying open with a limited menu unless the danger is too great. Michael is gravely dangerous.”
https://twitter.com/bryanwx/status/1049823256449089537
“#HurricaneMichael is legit people. The @WaffleHouse in Panama City Beach, Florida is now closed.”


https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-09-major-hurricane-michael-gulf-coast-florida-georgia-carolinas
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2018, 03:14:14 AM
BuzzFeed Storm (@BuzzFeedStorm) 10/9/18, 8:44 PM
.@NWSTallahassee warns portions of the Florida panhandle will see "devastating to catastrophic” impacts from Hurricane #Michael.

“Locations affected may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=tae&wwa=hurricane%20warning

https://twitter.com/buzzfeedstorm/status/1049822917666557952
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on October 10, 2018, 10:06:06 AM
A rainfront coming from the atlantic is moving just in front of Michael. Almost the same arera hit by Florence.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: wili on October 10, 2018, 11:43:48 AM
Well, it made it to cat4: https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/10/us/hurricane-michael-wxc/index.html

This will be historic...and tragic...indeed.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 10, 2018, 01:28:09 PM
Wasn't there a study recently that a massive off-shore wind farms would reduce the strength of these storms?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2018, 01:29:38 PM
NHC 4 AM storm surge predictions:
Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft
Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/100848.shtml

At 937 mb, Michael is the strongest storm ever to hit the Gulf.

“Over 4 feet of storm surge has already been measured at Apalachicola, FL, and water levels will continue to rise, possibly to as much as 13 feet. #Michael”
https://mobile.twitter.com/jackson_dill/status/1049978659178762241
Graph at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2018, 01:38:13 PM
"Peanuts, cotton, pecan crops in SW Georgia -- major agriculture area if you've driven from Tallahassee to Atlanta -- it is harvest season ... #HurricaneMichael arriving at worst possible time."
https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1049964074065367040
<< Here in SWGA, farmers have been running day & night to try and get the crops in. Lots of peanuts were just turned last week. My pecan orchard is laden right now. Won’t be in about 48H, I’m afraid.

NWS Raleigh on Twitter: "645 am... Heavy rain and resultant flooding remain the biggest concern with Michael across [North Carolina, recently flooded by Hurricane Florence]. Rainfall amounts are expected to range between 3 and 6 inches across much of the Piedmont. #ncwx #Michael”
https://mobile.twitter.com/nwsraleigh/status/1049974692147290113
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on October 10, 2018, 01:43:22 PM
Meanwhile, North Indian contains 2 simultaneously very severe cyclonic storms (3-min average is 64-89 kt).

Titli is located southeast of India and moves northwest.
Luban threatens Arabian Peninsula like Mekunu.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 10, 2018, 02:50:54 PM
6 more inches of rain in NC is a freaking disaster.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: be cause on October 10, 2018, 03:38:06 PM
Michael's central pressure now below 927mb and falling .. Catagory 5 perhaps?God help those who cannot flee .. b.c.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2018, 04:53:16 PM
Meanwhile, North Indian contains 2 simultaneously very severe cyclonic storms (3-min average is 64-89 kt).

Titli is located southeast of India and moves northwest.
Luban threatens Arabian Peninsula like Mekunu.

More on this rare event:

Met Office Storms (@metofficestorms)
10/10/18, 3:29 AM
For the first time in the modern record (last 40 years) the India Meteorological Department is issuing simultaneous warnings for two cyclones in the North Indian Ocean - #Luban and #Titli
https://twitter.com/metofficestorms/status/1049924888285327361
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 10, 2018, 05:11:41 PM
WATCH LIVE: Beach cams show 'monstrous' Michael approaching in Gulf
https://www.ksat.com/weather/watch-live-beach-cams-show-monstrous-michael-approaching-in-gulf

Panama City Beach Real Time Tide vs Projection (https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8729210&units=standard&bdate=20181007&edate=20181012&timezone=GMT&datum=MLLW&interval=6&action=)
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8729210&units=standard&bdate=20181007&edate=20181012&timezone=GMT&datum=MLLW&interval=6&action=

Apalachicola, FL Real Time Tide vs Projection (https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8728690&units=standard&bdate=20181007&edate=20181012&timezone=GMT&datum=MLLW&interval=6&action=)
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8728690&units=standard&bdate=20181007&edate=20181012&timezone=GMT&datum=MLLW&interval=6&action=

CURRENT SURF REPORT FOR PANAMA CITY BEACH (https://magicseaweed.com/Panama-City-Beach-Surf-Report/1259/) - 17ft at 13s - Wind: 65MPH , OFFSHORE - ENE

(https://forecast.weather.gov/meteograms/Plotter.php?lat=30.1766&lon=-85.8055&wfo=TAE&zcode=FLZ112&gset=18&gdiff=8&unit=0&tinfo=CY6&ahour=0&pcmd=00001000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000&lg=en&indu=1!1!1!&dd=&bw=&hrspan=24&pqpfhr=6&psnwhr=6)
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=30.1766&lon=-85.8055&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical

Radar simulation of Hurricane Michael from HRRR model between 6 a.m. Wednesday and 6 a.m. Thursday.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/lgctk4J5CjsHLQwiWy_Xezek1i0=/660x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/4KGITSDF35H67AZYHFGLX4LC4A.gif

Population centers that could witness some of the most severe hurricane effects include Fort Walton Beach, Destin, Panama City Beach and Apalachicola.

The National Weather Service warned many buildings could be completely washed away and that “locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period” after the storm.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=evx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

By Wednesday night and Thursday, heavy rains from Michael are likely to streak into the Carolinas, perhaps bringing more flooding to some of the same areas still recovering from Hurricane Florence.

https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2018/10/09/PTCN/b7a32789-77ae-411b-bfb1-6205eea42189-skull2.jpg?width=534&height=401&fit=bounds&auto=webp
Nature is trying to tell us something - Kinda looks like a skull.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2018, 05:21:19 PM
Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus)
10/10/18, 11:07 AM
NHC Update, 11am:
Now at 928mb, #Michael is approaching the top-10 list for all-time most intense hurricanes to make landfall anywhere in the Atlantic basin.
In the U.S., only "Labor Day", Camille, Katrina, Maria, Andrew, "Indianola", and "Florida Keys" were stronger.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1050040088934211585
Each of these hurricanes were catastrophic.

<< And only Camille was also in October, truly Historic.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: bligh8 on October 10, 2018, 05:22:41 PM
The storm after the storm.....FEMA told contractors to lowball estimates.

Missed deadlines cost millions in potential disaster aid

From <http://nsjonline.com/article/2018/10/missed-deadlines-cost-millions-in-potential-disaster-aid/>



Government Flood Insurance Program Called into Question

From <https://abcnews.go.com/WNT/Investigation/story?id=1144113&page=1>

Senators call for FEMA hearings following 60 Minutes report

From <https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senators-call-for-fema-hearings-following-60-minutes-report/>
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2018, 05:35:34 PM
WeatherOptics (@weatheroptics)
10/10/18, 11:25 AM
Breaking: Recon finds central low pressure from #Michael down to 919 mb. That would be an ADDITIONAL 10 mb drop in just an hour or so. Running out of words to describe just how significant this is. For some reference, Hurricane Andrew had pressure at 922 mb.
https://twitter.com/weatheroptics/status/1050044740614393856

Update:  the 919 is an extrapolated pressure, so 923 mb officially.

NHC Update, 11:30am:
Hurricane #Michael has strengthened still further -- and now has 150mph sustained winds, with a pressure of 923mb.
If it holds, Michael will be:
— 3rd strongest landfall in FL history ("Labor Day" 1935, Andrew 1992)
— 6th strongest landfall in U.S. history
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1050047599183581187
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: TerryM on October 10, 2018, 05:46:08 PM
JH Christ!


I hope Tor left the area in time.
919 is lower than Maria was, if I'm not mistaken.
Any further word on when Michael makes landfall?
I'd heard that > a Million will be without power. No power - No fuel - no food purchases.
Also heard that "troopers were being pulled back from the coast", we'll see how that works out.


The Storms of our Grandchildren are making an early debut. :'(
Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 10, 2018, 06:00:02 PM
The panhandle region of Florida is reliably red, the kind of people that call climate change a hoax.

Just saying.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 10, 2018, 06:06:43 PM
(https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/Loop/southeast_loop.gif?429be86ebd9ce21188194d56ebb1e62d)

(https://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/apcf1_hg.png)
https://www.weather.gov/tae/coastalfloodmonitor

Apalachicola: Only Hurricane Dennis of 2005 (a 6.43’ storm tide) brought higher water levels. NHC is predicting a storm surge as high as 14 feet for this portion of the coast.

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee says it has issued its first-ever “extreme wind warning”. This means wind gusts in excess of 130 MPH are expected.

“Shelter in place IMMEDIATELY,” the agency warned.

https://twitter.com/NWSTallahassee/status/1050043265855164417?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1050043265855164417&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fus-news%2Flive%2F2018%2Foct%2F10%2Fhurricane-michael-latest-live-news-updates-florida-evacuations-storm-

Sustained winds now reaching 150mph, according to another update from the National Hurricane Center. (7 more miles to Cat 5)

Quote
... The town of Mexico Beach, Florida has lost power, its mayor said.

The town of 1,200 people is now seeing sustained winds of 40-50mph with gusts over 60mph, Mayor Al Cathey told CNN.

“It certainly is deteriorating rapidly here,” he said.

Out of 1,200 residents, 280 are still in town and did not evacuate, Cathey said.

“Not everyone left. We’re just hoping for the best here,” he said.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 10, 2018, 06:29:22 PM
Video posted by meteorologist Marc Weinberg shows a newly constructed building collapsing in heavy wind in Panama City Beach.

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/1050049977744003072

New construction just collapsed in front of me in Panama City Beach ... It is going bad fast!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2018, 06:35:18 PM
Short video from inside the cockpit of the Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the eye of Hurricane Michael, just moments ago.

Will Simmons (@wrsimmons)
10/10/18, 11:59 AM
On our 6th pass through the eye of Category 4 Hurricane Michael, we @53rdWRS had daylight to witness what has been greatly intensifying over the past few days. Life-threatening effects are imminent along parts of the Florida panhandle. @NHC_Atlantic will have the latest.
https://twitter.com/wrsimmons/status/1050053165566058497
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: oren on October 10, 2018, 06:45:44 PM
JH Christ!
Indeed.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2018, 06:49:03 PM
Mike Dross (@MikeWDross)
10/10/18, 12:38 PM
Latest corrected Dropsonde is 919 mb. This will be one of the strongest hurricanes to ever hit. This is likely a CAT5
https://twitter.com/mikewdross/status/1050063108826390530

Eric Fisher (@ericfisher)
10/10/18, 12:42 PM
919mb is lower than Katrina. Bottom line this is an upper echelon devastating hurricane

Edit:
Alex Lamers (@AlexJLamers)
10/10/18, 12:38 PM
Center dropsonde at 11 AM, remarkably, implies a sub-920mb pressure, around 919mb. STILL FALLING. #Michael all but certain to be in the upper echelon of US landfall intensities now.
https://twitter.com/alexjlamers/status/1050063020087500802
Data image at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 10, 2018, 06:50:57 PM
Florida had its warmest September on record last month, and this helped heat up the eastern Gulf 1 – 2°C (2 – 4°F) above average.

(https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/plot/25/state:FL::month:9::day:30::dpi:100.png)
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?q=25
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2018, 06:55:59 PM
India Met. Dept. (@Indiametdept)
10/10/18, 12:36 PM
Very severe cyclonic storm ‘TITLI’ is very likely to intensify slightly further during next 06 hours. It is very likely to move north-northwestwards and cross Odisha & adjoining north Andhra Pradesh coasts close to Gopalpur around morning of 11th October. 2/2
https://twitter.com/indiametdept/status/1050062507438628864
Images below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2018, 06:58:50 PM
Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus)
10/10/18, 12:56 PM
NHC Update, 1pm:
Hurricane Michael's central pressure is down to 919mb, more intense than Andrew, Katrina, and Maria.
Since 1851, the only stronger U.S. landfalls were "Labor Day" (1935) and Camille (1969).
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1050067505069330433
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 10, 2018, 07:03:59 PM
Quote
FEMA Administrator Brock Long and Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen briefed Donald Trump on the hurricane at the White House.

“This started out very innocently a week ago. This was a small storm,” Trump said. “It grew into a monster.”

Long told the president that structures built before 2001 are not designed to handle the storm’s 145mph winds, meaning there will be “a lot of devastation along the coast structurally.” Extended power outages are expected.

Trump marveled at the size and strength of the storm, which is the most intense to strike the area since 1851.

The fast movement of the storm meant that “citizens have less time to prepare or heed the warnings,” Long said. “We are concerned that many citizens chose not to heed those warnings, but we’re prepared with search and rescue teams.”

Trump acknowledged that poverty in the area has held back evacuation efforts. “It’s not so easy for some of these people to leave. Some of the areas are very poor,” he said. “A lot of people are very poor...And it’s very tough for them to leave.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2018/oct/10/hurricane-michael-latest-live-news-updates-florida-evacuations-storm-
Quote
Donald Trump says he will likely go forward with a campaign rally planned for Wednesday night in Pennsylvania despite the storm.
Quote
“There are thousands of people already lined up, and probably we’ll do that tonight,” Trump said in a White House briefing when asked if he would cancel the rally planned in Erie, Pennsylvania. “You have so many people already there, and it’s sort of not fair to them.”
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 10, 2018, 07:24:03 PM


Re: Hurricane season 2018
« Reply #447 on: Today at 04:22:41 PM »
Quote
The storm after the storm.....FEMA told contractors to lowball estimates.
Well of course under this admistration. If you can't do anything about climate you can't do anything about the weather. 
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on October 10, 2018, 07:25:52 PM
The panhandle region of Florida is reliably red, the kind of people that call climate change a hoax.

Just saying.

I'm very sorry that i have to say this, but that's a sickning reaction. You really think they vote for Trump because of climate change ?Anyway, nobody needs a politician to do something about it, just stop travelling, stop driving a car, stop going to the supermarket. You don't need a politician to do that. You only need yourself.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 10, 2018, 07:26:28 PM
Quote
There are now 77,874 87,000 92,000 households without power, according to an outage map from Gulf Power.

The biggest outages are in the area around Panama City, with more than 73,000 customers with electricity out.

There are also outages in the areas around Pensacola and Destin, with power expected to go out for thousands more as the storm hits.
https://outagemap.gulfpower.com/external/default.html

Living in the Past ...
Quote
Pastor Thomas, 48, has spent his whole life in Panama City, and he said he remembered Hurricane Eloise, which passed near here in 1975 and caused millions of dollars in damage. But he said that Panama City had mostly been safe in his lifetime.

So he, like so many thousands on the Panhandle, had decided to ride it out.

“I believe from what I’ve seen in the past, we’re going to be O.K.,” he said. “I’m thinking God’s going to take us through it.”
Quote
Reply on Twitter: ... Pastor Thomas,  If you want to die, that's your business.  But if you did not urge your flock to seek safety away from the storm, you had better ask for forgiveness from your god before the storm takes you.  Ignorance is no excuse.

I'm sorry if this sounds cold hearted. But people who wield an authority over others have a duty to lead them to safety.  This guy, by choosing to stay behind, is doing the exact opposite.  And it makes me angry.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Neven on October 10, 2018, 07:37:31 PM
Stay safe, everyone in Florida!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 10, 2018, 07:44:24 PM
Eyewall of Hurricane Michael Is Coming Ashore on Florida Panhandle, Life-Threatening Storm Surge, Catastrophic Winds Imminent (https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-10-hurricane-michael-cat4-historic-landfall-gulf-coast-florida)

Hurricane Michael has made landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida, the National Hurricane Center says.

The storm is still intensifying as it makes landfall. It now carries sustained winds of 155 mph.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/101737.shtml

An extreme wind warning has been issued until 2:15 p.m. EDT for southern Jackson, Gulf, Bay, Calhoun, Liberty and southeastern Washington counties where winds in excess of 130 mph are moving onshore. This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Treat this warning as if a tornado was approaching and move immediately to the safe room in your shelter, advises the National Weather Service

Tyndall Airforce Base, near Panama City, measured a wind gust to 129 mph Wednesday afternoon and a wind gust to 106 mph was reported at Port St. Joe early.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2018, 07:54:26 PM
NHC 1 PM:  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H

10/10/18, 1:48 PM
Maximum sustained winds have increased to 155mph in #HurricaneMichael, making it just 2mph shy of Category 5 strength at landfall.
https://twitter.com/theweatherboy/status/1050080766816702465
Radar/sat GIF at the link. (Landfall)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on October 10, 2018, 08:01:38 PM
How fast is this monster of our own creation moving?

The wind speed is very important but a very slow hurricane has more time to loosen up infrastructure, trees and land. The longer the exposure to high speed winds the more damage. If the hurricane is strong but fast there is a lot less damage.

Does the Saffir Simpson scale take into account translation speed?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 10, 2018, 08:02:00 PM
Quote
It now carries sustained winds of 155 mph.

That's actually faster than I've ever travelled on land (only done 125mph). Those winds are like some German ICE speeds, here in Northern Europe we do not usually have trains going that fast.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 10, 2018, 08:28:39 PM
I'd heard that > a Million will be without power. No power - No fuel - no food purchases.

It's not that bad, yet:

https://poweroutage.us/area/state/florida
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2018, 08:29:36 PM
And those winds won’t just disappear overnight as the storm crosses North Carolina.

Courtesy of weatherbell 10m winds gusts at 8pm Thursday. Yes there will likely be wind damage across the Triangle. #Michael
https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status/1050086929616769025
Image below.

Wilmington, NC (on the coast):

New Hanover County (@NewHanoverCo)
10/10/18, 1:28 PM
Updates from #NHCgov abt #HurricaneMichael: lnks.gd/2/8HqHqq
- 2-5 in. of rain expected
- 26 mph sustained winds Thurs w/ gusts of 38 mph
- Power outages may occur, so be prepared w/ food, water & meds for 2-3 days
- County plans to operate normal business hours Thursday
https://twitter.com/newhanoverco/status/1050075654413266945
Video at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sam on October 10, 2018, 08:50:50 PM
How fast is this monster of our own creation moving?

The wind speed is very important but a very slow hurricane has more time to loosen up infrastructure, trees and land. The longer the exposure to high speed winds the more damage. If the hurricane is strong but fast there is a lot less damage.

Does the Saffir Simpson scale take into account translation speed?

It is moving quickly.

And no, the Saffir-Simpson Scale does not consider the size or translational speed of the hurricane. It solely considers the peak wind speed. It used to also consider central low pressure and storm surge. Neither of those are criteria either.

Michael has a devestating storm surge for the area around Panama City. One of the last drop sonds showed a central low pressure of 919 mb. <920 used to be Cat 5. It also shows sustained winds of 155 mph. >157 mph defines Cat 5 (formerly >156).

Accordingly, Michael is as intense as a storm can get and not be a Cat 5.

As you possibly suggest, it could be worse if the storm were traveling more slowly, or if it was broader.

And those should probably be criteria in assessing the storm character.

Likewise, with warming oceans, even bigger badder storms are now possible. The Safire-Simpson scale is reputedly based on damage. The idea is that Cat 5 storms destroy everything, so there is no need for a Cat 6.

However, if you look at the peak sustained wind speed criteria, the underlying math (original scale) looks something like this...

Cat 1. 74-95 mph
Cat 2. 96-110
Cat 3. 111-131
Cat 4. 131-155
Cat 5. 156-open ended

From category 2 through 5 there is an apparent rule that each Category encompasses a band 5 mph broader that the preceding band with Category 1 being different and broader. So rather than actually being based on damage as purported, the design appears to be mathematical in origin.  Extending that, it might instead look like this (with Cat 0a included for historical reasons).

Cat 0a. 74-80 mph
Cat 0b. 81-85
Cat 1. 86-95
Cat 2. 96-110
Cat 3. 111-130
Cat 4. 131-155
Cat 5. 156-185
Cat 6. 186-220
Cat 7. 221-260

Hurricane Allen with 190 mph winds in 1980 was arguably a Category 6 storm.

Other formulations based on other criteria (e.g. Power, scale, rain, surge, duration) might be more useful. And others have been proposed - e.g.

https://medium.com/@pagenotes/evolving-the-saffir-simpson-hurricane-categories-d19d5004d637 (https://medium.com/@pagenotes/evolving-the-saffir-simpson-hurricane-categories-d19d5004d637)

And the more useful Dvorak scale.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique)

There tends to be some proportionality between Category and size of a storm. That alone should be reason enough to define at least a Category 6. And there seems to be no reason not to generalize the definition. Higher categories may not ever be possible on Earth. However, as we look to other planets, it would be useful to have a uniform system for evaluating such things.

Sam
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 10, 2018, 09:13:04 PM
This was posted when Michael was still a Cat 3 ...

Quote
The Saffir-Simpson wind scale is an imperfect ranking of a hurricane’s storm surge threat, since it does not take into account the size of the storm and over how large an area the storm’s strong winds are blowing. At 5 am EDT Wednesday, Michael was an average-sized hurricane, with tropical storm-force winds that extended out up to 185 miles from the center, and hurricane-force winds that extended out 45 miles from the center. If we sum up the total energy of this wind field, we come with an Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) of 42 Terajoules, according to RMS Hwind. At this level of wind energy, Michael will be able to generate a storm surge characteristic of a typical of a Category 3 or 4 storm.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-88-4-513

For comparison, here are the peak IKE vales of some historic storms at landfall:

Sandy, 2012: 330
Ivan, 2004: 122
Irma, 2017: 118
Ike, 2008: 118
Katrina, 2005: 116
Rita, 2005: 97
Maria, 2017: 78
Frances, 2004: 70
Matthew, 2016: 45
Michael, 2018: 42
Dennis, 2015: 42
Harvey, 2017: 27
Andrew, 1992: 17
Charley, 2004: 10
Note: Andrew at Cat 5 was only 17

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Potentially-Catastrophic-Hurricane-Michael-Nearing-Landfall-Florida-Panhandle
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Paddy on October 10, 2018, 09:38:33 PM
The panhandle region of Florida is reliably red, the kind of people that call climate change a hoax.

Just saying.

I'm very sorry that i have to say this, but that's a sickning reaction. You really think they vote for Trump because of climate change ?Anyway, nobody needs a politician to do something about it, just stop travelling, stop driving a car, stop going to the supermarket. You don't need a politician to do that. You only need yourself.

Eh, the way we vote also has power, since gvts have a lot of power to alter emissions, in one direction or the other. Voting in an administration of climate change denialists was hardly helpful, especially with all the push for more coal mining, more oil drilling etc.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Martin Gisser on October 10, 2018, 11:27:51 PM
The panhandle region of Florida is reliably red, the kind of people that call climate change a hoax.

Just saying.

I'm very sorry that i have to say this, but that's a sickning reaction. You really think they vote for Trump because of climate change ? [...]
They voted Trump despite climate change. That is, they gave the finger to climate change.
Some more storms and storm surges down the years and they might learn that climate science deniers should not be voted into politics.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 10, 2018, 11:55:57 PM
Michael shuts over a third of U.S. Gulf of Mexico natgas output   
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1MK1MA

... A week ago, drillers were pulling about 3.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas out of the offshore Gulf of Mexico. On Tuesday, that was down to just 2.2 bcfd, according to the Refinitiv data.

One billion cubic feet of gas is enough to fuel about 5 million U.S. homes for a day.

In addition to the reduction in gas supplies, nearly 40 percent of daily crude oil production was also lost from offshore Gulf wells because of platform evacuations and shut-ins ahead of Hurricane Michael.
___________________________

Photos: What Hurricane Michael’s destruction looks like on the ground 
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/10/10/17961782/hurricane-michael-photos-florida-panhandle

... It looks like a tornado hit some of these areas 
https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/1050094351790034944

Downtown Panama City proper got hit way harder than Panama City Beach. Not shocked as it was hit by the right eyewall. This is catastrophic damage here.

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/1050109837596594176
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 11, 2018, 12:18:29 AM
Hurricane Michael Videos Show Devastation in Mexico Beach
http://time.com/5421134/hurricane-michael-mexico-beach-storm-videos/


Hurricane Michael is a monster storm and an unnatural disaster
Quote
Recovery from Michael is likely to be a painfully slow process. The Panhandle is the most impoverished region of Florida, and this kind of a storm would be difficult to overcome even for wealthy communities. Calhoun County, just inland of where Michael made landfall, is the lowest-income county in the state, with a median household income of less than $32,000 per year. As we saw during last month’s Hurricane Florence in the Carolinas, it’s likely that thousands of people couldn’t even afford to evacuate.
https://grist.org/article/hurricane-michael-is-a-monster-storm-and-an-unnatural-disaster/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on October 11, 2018, 12:26:51 AM
NEW VIDEO: Utter devastation in Panama City, FL after #Michael. Video by Gary Schmitt / LSM

https://twitter.com/WCYB_Ricky/status/1050146948668379137
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 11, 2018, 12:42:59 AM
Yikes!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 11, 2018, 02:30:52 AM
“Before and After: Structures completely gone in Mexico Beach, FL. #HurricaneMichael #Michael”
https://mobile.twitter.com/chrisdolcewx/status/1050157608328486912

“Storm surge flooding this afternoon at St George Island... video from Mandi Jackson”
https://mobile.twitter.com/spann/status/1050154215681744896

“Before and after from Mexico Beach, FL. Notice structure in blue totally gone in after image. Put together through videos on this FB page. #HurricaneMichael #Michael”
https://mobile.twitter.com/chrisdolcewx/status/1050155122553225219

“Michael's sustained winds are still 100 mph -- 5 hours after landfall.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1050167872616566784
NHC text image at the link.

“Peoples First On 23rd street in Panama City, Everett and Jenks Middle Schools. Such damage.”
https://twitter.com/usafccf/status/1050139034339762176
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sleepy on October 11, 2018, 07:36:38 AM
The panhandle region of Florida is reliably red, the kind of people that call climate change a hoax.

Just saying.

I'm very sorry that i have to say this, but that's a sickning reaction. You really think they vote for Trump because of climate change ? [...]
They voted Trump despite climate change. That is, they gave the finger to climate change.
Some more storms and storm surges down the years and they might learn that climate science deniers should not be voted into politics.
The overly positive will drown in their own words.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 11, 2018, 10:57:49 AM
We're not quite up to Terry's 1 million post Michael power outages yet:

https://poweroutage.us/area/region/south%20east
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 11, 2018, 05:27:48 PM
Images & Videos: Hurricane Michael in Florida: Beach Towns Left in Ruins; Air Force Base Damaged (https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-10-hurricane-michael-impacts-florida-gulf-coast)
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-10-hurricane-michael-impacts-florida-gulf-coast

(https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/181010205608-panama-city-gym-destroyed-large-169.jpg)

DRONE VIDEO: Hurricane Michael devastates Panama City, Florida (https://www.cbs17.com/news/local-news/drone-video-hurricane-michael-devastates-panama-city-florida_20181011125354/1515936878)

Victims of Hurricane Michael voted for climate deniers (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/oct/11/victims-of-hurricane-michael-voted-for-climate-deniers)
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/oct/11/victims-of-hurricane-michael-voted-for-climate-deniers

Quote
Elections have consequences. Denying science has consequences. And we are reaping what we sow.

... . Think of how backwards the situation is – the Florida Department of Environmental Protection has reportedly been banned from using the terms “climate change” and “global warming”. This policy reportedly went into effect when Florida elected a science denier, Rick Scott, to governor.

... Maybe it’s because Rick Scott invests in companies that oppose climate change regulations? (https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/06/19/rick-scotts-investments-have-included-companies-opposed-to-climate-change-regulations/)

Rick Scott isn’t the only politician from the state of Florida to reject science and diminish climate change. Senator Marco Rubio has as well. (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/01/republicans-ted-cruz-marco-rubio-climate-change-scientists)

 In the current race for state Governor to succeed Scott, Republican candidate Ron DeSantis is ignoring science.  He recently claimed that climate change is not an issue for states to mitigate. (https://www.heraldtribune.com/news/20180815/desantis-says-climate-change-not-issue-for-states-to-mitigate)  Say what?

But it’s not just Florida; there are other states getting hit by Hurricane Michael that are also led by climate deniers. For instance, Georgia will be hit by Hurricane Michael.  One of the senators there, David Perdue, congratulated President Trump when he pulled out of the Paris Climate Accord. (https://www.perdue.senate.gov/news/press-releases/senator-david-perdue-comments-on-paris-climate-agreement) Georgia’s other Senator, Johnny Isakson also denies the science. He too supported President Trump’s reckless actions.

At the congressional district level, the denial continues.  Republican Representative Barry Loudermilk was pleased when President Trump walked away from the Paris Agreement. (https://twitter.com/reploudermilk/status/870378067528744965)

... Elections have consequences and if we as a society want to create a better world and reduce climate change, we have to vote for people who understand science, who believe in factsClimate deniers are making these storms worse by stopping action on climate change. What the hell do we expect to happen when the deniers are writing the laws?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on October 11, 2018, 07:39:39 PM
Almost all the houses are gone in the video.
https://www.counton2.com/weather/new-video-helicopter-tour-of-mexico-beach-it-s-gone-/1516588727?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_WCBD
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on October 11, 2018, 07:47:28 PM
The panhandle region of Florida is reliably red, the kind of people that call climate change a hoax.

Just saying.

I'm very sorry that i have to say this, but that's a sickning reaction. You really think they vote for Trump because of climate change ? [...]
They voted Trump despite climate change. That is, they gave the finger to climate change.
Some more storms and storm surges down the years and they might learn that climate science deniers should not be voted into politics.

By than all the democrats (globalists) in New York will be at the bottem of the sea. How much more do they need, a couple dozens of inches.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: TerryM on October 11, 2018, 09:00:50 PM
The photos emerging are showing the worst hurricane devastation I've seen. We shouldn't need to be reminded that Tor lives somewhere in this region in order to feel compassion for the victims, regardless of who they voted for.
This wasn't a learning experience, this was a catastrophe.

Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: oren on October 11, 2018, 10:21:45 PM
Almost all the houses are gone in the video.
https://www.counton2.com/weather/new-video-helicopter-tour-of-mexico-beach-it-s-gone-/1516588727?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_WCBD
The devastation in this video is jaw-dropping.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 11, 2018, 11:37:54 PM
Michael induced power outages have now passed the million mark.

There's another 75,000 or so in Virginia as well:

https://poweroutage.us/area/regions
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: TerryM on October 11, 2018, 11:52:55 PM
Jim
I'd just heard about the 1M mark & returned to post when I saw your post.


I don't thing the death toll of 6 is within an order of magnitude of where we'll end up.
I haven't been to Florida in decades, but for some reason this one feels like it's hitting very close to home.
Terry

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 12, 2018, 12:53:20 AM
”FEMA has no idea of the likelihood of rescuers finding survivors, or bodies, said spokesman Ignatius Carroll.  "We can't search every pile of rubble."
Rescuers look for survivors after Michael obliterates Florida beach town
http://news.trust.org/item/20181011210648-hl58c/


Massive relief and recovery effort unfolding on US 231 S. coming into Panama City.
https://mobile.twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1050458685921775621
Video clip at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 12, 2018, 01:13:51 AM
Tyndall Air Force Base In Ruins After Michael, Fighter Jets Seen Inside Roofless Hangars  (http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/24178/tyndall-air-force-base-in-ruins-after-michael-fighters-seen-inside-roofless-hangars)

Tyndall Air Force Base took a direct hit from Hurricane Michael, with its eye passing right overhead....

Supposedly, the wind gauge on the base broke after winds hit 135 mph and are now thought to have reached above 150mph or even greater. A reevaluation of meteorological data from many sources could even result in Michael being retroactively reclassified from a Cat 4 to a Cat 5 hurricane.

This Twitter video of a helicopter survey of the base shows just how bad the damage is ...
https://www.facebook.com/wxchasing/videos/1460410770756992/UzpfSTIwMDk5OTQwMzQwNzA0MToxMDkxMDY3MzY0NDAwMjM2/

Major damage to F-22s. QF-16s and Mu-2s shoved into one another inside one of the base's large and now roofless hangars.

Infrastructure and aircraft damage = North of $ 1 Billion
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 12, 2018, 01:36:18 AM
Re: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2237.msg176617.html#msg176617
Rescuers look for survivors after Michael obliterates Florida beach town ....
Quote
... Afterward, [a survivor] sat in the shade and broke down. "I know, but we can rebuild it," a FEMA rescuer said, putting his arm around her.   
Although I feel for the survivors, this is the root of the problem.

Rebuilding, only to have it swept away in 10 or 20 years by rising sea and fiercer storms is not a rational plan.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: pileus on October 12, 2018, 02:29:14 AM
Gotta say I’m pretty rattled here in Tampa after going through Irma last year and seeing what Michael has wrought in the Panhandle.  The pics and reports of impact speak for themselves.  It’s not hyperbole to say these intense cyclones we’ve observed globally over recent years are becoming routine, with the increasing amount of heat available in the tropical basins.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: oren on October 12, 2018, 02:55:50 AM
Tyndall Air Force Base took a direct hit from Hurricane Michael, with its eye passing right overhead....
This Twitter video of a helicopter survey of the base shows just how bad the damage is ...
https://www.facebook.com/wxchasing/videos/1460410770756992/UzpfSTIwMDk5OTQwMzQwNzA0MToxMDkxMDY3MzY0NDAwMjM2/

Major damage to F-22s. QF-16s and Mu-2s shoved into one another inside one of the base's large and now roofless hangars.

Infrastructure and aircraft damage = North of $ 1 Billion
The damage to the base is catastrophic. In this and other videos the damage seems far above the usual major hurricane damage. I guess luck plays a factor, but this one was a real monster.
On a side note, IMHO these aircraft should have been evacuated ahead of the storm. On the other hand, 3 days before it hit Michael was forecast to be a tropical storm at landfall, and 1 day before it was still a Cat 1, so they probably didn't have enough time to prepare.
I think what feels like a relatively new phenomenon is the ease and suddenness of rapid intensification into a major hurricane, fueled by the warm water which seems to be just about everywhere.

Edit: it seems most aircraft were able to escape to areas unaffected by the storm, but some were  left behind because they were not capable of flight.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: TerryM on October 12, 2018, 03:13:22 AM
Gotta say I’m pretty rattled here in Tampa after going through Irma last year and seeing what Michael has wrought in the Panhandle.  The pics and reports of impact speak for themselves.  It’s not hyperbole to say these intense cyclones we’ve observed globally over recent years are becoming routine, with the increasing amount of heat available in the tropical basins.


Might be time to consider moving to Utah. ::)
Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sleepy on October 12, 2018, 07:13:02 AM
Was watching the video in this one:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/officials-worry-hurricane-michael-death-toll-could-rise-crews-struggle-n918936 (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/officials-worry-hurricane-michael-death-toll-could-rise-crews-struggle-n918936)
The video following that one, showed the attached image. An unfit former gas station?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on October 12, 2018, 12:58:39 PM
Subtropical storm Leslie appears.
Resilient hurricane Leslie is still dancing.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 12, 2018, 01:50:52 PM
The second video in this article has an amazing extended section of winds on the ground during the eyewall.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/briannasacks/drone-footage-hurricane-michael

Video from the hurricane hunter plane:
Michael at landfall. The normal "stadium effect" was more like a cylinder, a straight vertical wall 50K ft high. Saw 175 mph flight level winds, ~155 mph at surface. Entered eyewall at 10K ft, ended up in eye down at 8K! Need another tweet to explain what that felt like… “
https://mobile.twitter.com/jeremydehart53d/status/1050529815323975680

The four Category 4 U.S. #hurricane landfalls in less than 14 months. #HurricaneMichael #Michael
https://mobile.twitter.com/chrisdolcewx/status/1050348660339412992
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: FishOutofWater on October 12, 2018, 02:45:38 PM
The air force hurricane hunter plane had evidence of 140kt surface winds (about 160mph) but it was considered a suspect measurement and was rejected. Based on a combination of factors, including flight level winds, surface pressure of 919 combined with a small eye, satellite measured cloud top heights, ADT values and damage reports, I suspect that the rejected measurement was good.

There's a very good chance that Michael will be reclassified a low end category 5 of 140 knots.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 12, 2018, 03:29:17 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Surge/status/1050409595594842113?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Enews%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Storm Surge:Using available observations and a post-landfall hindcast simulation of SLOSH, the NHC's Storm Surge Unit estimates peak storm surge inundation values of 9-14 ft from Mexico Beach eastward through Apalachee Bay.  Highest surge is estimated near Mexico Beach and Port St. Joe.

Agriculture decimated: With the harvest underway, many farms in South Georgia had their crops ravaged by the storm. "Our worst dreams are being realized," Georgia Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black told reporters Thursday morning. Black said 84 chicken houses, estimated to have held more than 2 million chickens, were destroyed.
https://weather.com/amp/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-12-hurricane-michael-impacts-southeast-mid-atlantic.html
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on October 12, 2018, 05:22:27 PM
Latest forecast by NHC. Can Leslie jump into Mediterranean?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 12, 2018, 05:39:45 PM
Re: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2237.msg176617.html#msg176617
Rescuers look for survivors after Michael obliterates Florida beach town ....
Quote
... Afterward, [a survivor] sat in the shade and broke down. "I know, but we can rebuild it," a FEMA rescuer said, putting his arm around her.   
Although I feel for the survivors, this is the root of the problem.

Rebuilding, only to have it swept away in 10 or 20 years by rising sea and fiercer storms is not a rational plan.
yea that's the sad thing, they'be committed to 20-40 years of ultimate failure
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on October 12, 2018, 06:25:20 PM
Why did Michael caused so much damage so far from the point where he made landfall ?Normaly they start to lose speed as soon as they hit land. But if you see that more than 400 000 people lost power in North-Carolina, that's more than 500 km further.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on October 12, 2018, 09:40:45 PM
Leslie on his way to Portugal, with wind speed up to 220 km/h.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: TerryM on October 12, 2018, 11:10:36 PM
Tor


Let us know if you're OK.


Thanks
Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: oren on October 12, 2018, 11:54:07 PM
Leslie on his way to Portugal, with wind speed up to 220 km/h.
Not sure where this comes from. Leslie's winds are about half of that figure.

I must add, Leslie started as a named subtropical storm in Sep 23rd, so today is the 20th day of its existence. I guess when Hansen wrote about "The storms of my grandchildren" he didn't expect them to be the same storms simply continuing forever...
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: magnamentis on October 13, 2018, 12:11:05 AM
Leslie on his way to Portugal, with wind speed up to 220 km/h.
Not sure where this comes from. Leslie's winds are about half of that figure.

I must add, Leslie started as a named subtropical storm in Sep 23rd, so today is the 20th day of its existence. I guess when Hansen wrote about "The storms of my grandchildren" he didn't expect them to be the same storms simply continuing forever...

this and there are three possible paths, portugal is only one of them, see attached image or linked video:

https://weather.com/de-DE/wetter/ausland/news/2018-10-12-hurrikan-leslie-erreicht-europa-am-sonntag-welche-lander-getroffen/?cm_ven=focus_web_main
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 13, 2018, 12:36:24 AM
Tor ... Let us know if you're OK.
Thanks
Terry
Seems like he may have missed the worst of the wind. He may be waiting for power to be restored

Hurricane Michael: 90 percent of city of Tallahassee power could be restored by end of weekend   (https://amp.tallahassee.com/amp/1612036002)

Day Two of power restoration to the City of Tallahassee Friday began with 24 percent of the city's 117,000 power customers getting their electricity restored, while the other 76 percent still sat in the dark.

... “We are working with our transmission provider, Duke Energy. They have sustained extensive damage to their transmission infrastructure that supplies multiple TEC substations and is currently affecting 78% of our accounts,” Talquin said in a prepared statement. “They are unable to provide estimated restoration times right now.”   

The hurricane tore through Leon County with wind gusts as high as 71 mph, knocking down trees, tangling power lines in branches and snapping power poles. The storm also damaged 73 percent of the system's circuits, knocked 6 of its 25 substations offline and took down 60 percent of the transmission network.

At the outage's peak, more than 114,000 homes and businesses -- 97 percent of those connected to Tallahassee’s power grid -- were without power.   

Hermine knocked out power to 57 percent of the city’s customers and power was restored in a week.
--------------------------
More on Tyndall AFB

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/11/us/air-force-hurricane-michael-damage.html
Tyndall Air Force Base a ‘Complete Loss’ Amid Questions About Stealth Fighters 

... Tyndall is home to 55 F-22 stealth fighters, which cost a dizzying $339 million each. Before the storm, the Air Force sent at least 33 of the fighters to Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio.

Air Force officials have not disclosed the whereabouts of the remaining 22 planes, other than to say that a number of aircraft were left at the base because of maintenance or safety reasons.

But photos and video from the wreckage of the base showed the distinctive contours of the F-22’s squared tail fins and angled vertical stabilizers amid a jumble of rubble in the base’s largest building, Hangar 5. Another photo shows the distinctive jet in a smaller hangar that had its doors and a wall ripped off by wind.

All of the hangars at the base were damaged, Major Singleton said Friday. “We anticipate the aircraft parked inside may be damaged as well"

The high-tech F-22 is notoriously finicky and not always flight-worthy. An Air Force report this year found that on average, only about 49 percent of F-22s were mission ready at any given time — the lowest rate of any fighter in the Air Force.

The total value of the 22 fighters that may remain at Tyndall is about $7.5 billion.
... Oops!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 13, 2018, 01:01:38 AM
Here’s why hurricanes are rapidly exploding in strength
http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2018/10/heres-why-hurricanes-are-rapidly.html
http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2018/10/climate-warming-to-boost-major.html?m=1

Climate scientists have begun to focus on hurricane rapid intensification as an increasingly prevalent feature in the world we’re entering. Simply put, with warmer seas, storms ought to be able to pull this off more often.

In a recent study in the Journal of Climate, researchers found more rapid intensifications in a simulation of a human-warmed world, and also that this would prove a key pathway toward more intense hurricanes in general.

"The reason there are going to be more major hurricanes is not necessarily there are going to be that many more storms … it’s really the fact that those storms are going to get there faster,” said Kieran Bhatia, lead author of the new research in the Journal of Climate. Bhatia completed the work while a graduate researcher at Princeton University and the nearby NOAA laboratory.

We've already seen the signs, in the past several years, of ultra-intense hurricanes that get that way by explosively intensifying.

... When the researchers moved from simulating the hurricanes of the late 20th century to those of the future under a middle-of-the-road climate change scenario, they found big changes. For the period between 2016 and 2035, there were more hurricanes in general and 11 percent more hurricanes of the Category 3, 4 and 5 classes; by the end of the century, there were 20 percent more of the worst storms.

What's more, the research found that storms of super-extreme intensity, with maximum sustained winds above 190 mph, also became more common. While it only found nine of these storms in a simulation of the late 20th century climate, it found 32 for the period from 2016 to 2035 and 72 for the period from 2081 to 2100.

Full Text: Dominant effect of relative tropical Atlantic warming on major hurricane occurrence   (http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2018/09/26/science.aat6711?rss=1) Science Sept 27, 2018

(https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/early/2018/09/26/science.aat6711/F5.large.jpg)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on October 13, 2018, 06:43:57 AM
Leslie on his way to Portugal, with wind speed up to 220 km/h.
Not sure where this comes from. Leslie's winds are about half of that figure.

I must add, Leslie started as a named subtropical storm in Sep 23rd, so today is the 20th day of its existence. I guess when Hansen wrote about "The storms of my grandchildren" he didn't expect them to be the same storms simply continuing forever...

Wind guts up to 220 km/h , not the sustained winds.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on October 13, 2018, 08:02:27 PM
Hurricane Michael's development. 22 sec animation.

https://www.reddit.com/r/weather/comments/9nulx1/hurricane_michaels_development/

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on October 13, 2018, 08:08:33 PM
At 15:00 UTC today Leslie was still a hurricane. Few hours left before landfall in Portugal.

Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number  69 (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/al13/al132018.public.069.shtml?)
Quote
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.0N 12.6W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM WSW OF LISBON PORTUGAL
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

Update (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT3+shtml/131733.shtml?)
Quote
Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
200 PM AST Sat Oct 13 2018

Satellite data and surface observations indicate that Leslie has
acquired extratropical characteristics and is now a post-tropical
cyclone with 70 mph (110 km/h) winds.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Paddy on October 14, 2018, 08:53:22 AM
With estimates for the costs for hurricane michael coming in at $30 billion, it looks like five of the ten most expensive atlantic hurricanes in history took place within the last two years. Partly this is a function of inflation in general and a property boom in particular, partly consequent irresponsible construction in vulnerable locations and partly arbitrary clustering of events, but the effect of warming oceans on storm power is plainly also a major factor.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 14, 2018, 05:29:56 PM
“70 forecast advisories issued over a 20-day period......summed up in 10 short seconds. I feel like forecasters at the @NHC_Atlantic deserve a medal or something (or at the very least, a round of applause). Nicely done sir. #Leslie”
https://mobile.twitter.com/stalcupwx/status/1051238826839019521
Ten-second video at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 14, 2018, 06:26:11 PM
No Food, No FEMA: Hurricane Michael’s Survivors Are Furious
Quote
The destruction is everywhere, at every corner, as far as the eye can see. Mexico Beach, where the hurricane’s eyewall slammed into Florida with 140 mph winds, is flattened. Panama City, gem of the Emerald Coast, looks like a bomb has been dropped on it. It is now a desolate landscape of toppled power poles, transformers, electrical lines, severed trees, and metal roofings, twisted and tangled into a sea of debris. Nearly all homes, businesses, stores, banks, schools are severely damaged or destroyed, skeletal remains with blown out windows or crushed facades. To residents, it is unrecognizable.
...
Since the storm, there’s been no electricity and no water in Panama City. Emergency disaster relief was yet to be seen in strength as of Saturday morning and residents were growing more frustrated and desperate.

Chantelle Goolspy sat in her car making phone calls to get help. Goolspy and many of her neighbors live in a public housing area in downtown Panama City that was badly devastated. 

“We’re in need of food, water, anything, we’re not getting any help. The whole street needs help,” Goolspy told the Red Cross. “FEMA referred me to you. That person told me to call 211.” ...
https://www.thedailybeast.com/no-food-no-fema-hurricane-michaels-survivors-are-furious
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on October 14, 2018, 06:43:54 PM
I'm very afraid that they haven't released the number of disappearances. I'm scared that the people in the path didn't get enough warning. Since in these parts of  the world climate change isn't real, they might have expected a storm like the ones from the past.

If that's the case FEMA and the authorities will cover up the deaths like they did in Puerto Rico.

They should be doing the opposite. If they release estimates, and the estimates are perceived as high, angels will descend and help them. And by angels I mean good people wanting to help. If this was anything like Puerto Rico there are still thousands of people that can't leave their homes because of the debris.

The problem with this is that volunteers are free. No juicy contracts to assign.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on October 14, 2018, 07:40:55 PM
Michael Death Toll Climbs to 18; Search Continues for Missing

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-13-hurricane-michael-florida-mexico-beach-death-toll-southeast-mid?cm_ven=T_WX_JE_101418_5

Quote
About 1,700 search and rescue personnel have checked 25,000 homes, Florida Gov. Rick Scott said.
"Everybody just needs to help each other right now," Scott said after meeting with emergency responders in the Panama City area. "You feel sorry for people. They might have lost their house. They worry about their kids getting into school. You know, people don't sit and have a whole bunch of extra money in the bank just waiting for a disaster."


Rick Scott did a superb job with Irma and Florida really helped PR out in many ways. He might be a climate change denier, thus partly responsible for this, but he does a very good job at disaster management.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: wili on October 14, 2018, 08:07:16 PM
?

Arch, how do you square that assessment of Scott's performance with the article Sig just cited? :

Quote
No Food, No FEMA: Hurricane Michael’s Survivors Are Furious

    "The destruction is everywhere, at every corner, as far as the eye can see. Mexico Beach, where the hurricane’s eyewall slammed into Florida with 140 mph winds, is flattened. Panama City, gem of the Emerald Coast, looks like a bomb has been dropped on it. It is now a desolate landscape of toppled power poles, transformers, electrical lines, severed trees, and metal roofings, twisted and tangled into a sea of debris. Nearly all homes, businesses, stores, banks, schools are severely damaged or destroyed, skeletal remains with blown out windows or crushed facades. To residents, it is unrecognizable.
    ...
    Since the storm, there’s been no electricity and no water in Panama City. Emergency disaster relief was yet to be seen in strength as of Saturday morning and residents were growing more frustrated and desperate.

    Chantelle Goolspy sat in her car making phone calls to get help. Goolspy and many of her neighbors live in a public housing area in downtown Panama City that was badly devastated.

    “We’re in need of food, water, anything, we’re not getting any help. The whole street needs help,” Goolspy told the Red Cross. “FEMA referred me to you. That person told me to call 211.” ..."

https://www.thedailybeast.com/no-food-no-fema-hurricane-michaels-survivors-are-furious
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: magnamentis on October 14, 2018, 08:15:41 PM
?

Arch, how do you square that assessment of Scott's performance with the article Sig just cited? :

Quote
No Food, No FEMA: Hurricane Michael’s Survivors Are Furious

    "The destruction is everywhere, at every corner, as far as the eye can see. Mexico Beach, where the hurricane’s eyewall slammed into Florida with 140 mph winds, is flattened. Panama City, gem of the Emerald Coast, looks like a bomb has been dropped on it. It is now a desolate landscape of toppled power poles, transformers, electrical lines, severed trees, and metal roofings, twisted and tangled into a sea of debris. Nearly all homes, businesses, stores, banks, schools are severely damaged or destroyed, skeletal remains with blown out windows or crushed facades. To residents, it is unrecognizable.
    ...
    Since the storm, there’s been no electricity and no water in Panama City. Emergency disaster relief was yet to be seen in strength as of Saturday morning and residents were growing more frustrated and desperate.

    Chantelle Goolspy sat in her car making phone calls to get help. Goolspy and many of her neighbors live in a public housing area in downtown Panama City that was badly devastated.

    “We’re in need of food, water, anything, we’re not getting any help. The whole street needs help,” Goolspy told the Red Cross. “FEMA referred me to you. That person told me to call 211.” ..."

https://www.thedailybeast.com/no-food-no-fema-hurricane-michaels-survivors-are-furious

the government can hardly admit a catastrophy that is related to something they deny it's happening [sarc]
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on October 14, 2018, 08:32:05 PM
For Irma he had plenty of time to prepare, once the hurricane hit, first responders rushed in. With Maria, he didn't have to help, but he did. For that I feel I owe him a debt of gratitude.

With Michael the climate change denier caught up with him. They were expecting a tropical storm, but what they got was a giant tornado. Disaster managers are preparing for 20th century disasters, when they should be preparing for new and worse disasters.

But now that the disasters is gone, the resources that were used during Irma and the lessons learned from Maria should hopefully serve to mount a quick response, I hope. The people down there are having a really terrible time.

I do worry that I'm hearing a lot of first responder this and first responders that but very few calls for the communities to help themselves. That was vital in PR. The people dug themselves out and cleaned most of the secondary and tertiary roads.

Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: wili on October 14, 2018, 08:36:56 PM
"...hopefully serve to mount a quick response, I hope..."

Yes, we all certainly hope recovery goes well, but I don't see a lot of evidence that Scott is yet "doing a heck of a job," so to speak.

I note that other water-related issues may be negatively affecting Scott's political fortunes: https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/10/14/florida-senate-race-rick-scott-bill-nelson-algae-221272

One thing that may keep locals from starting to pick up themselves (or even just get around) are live wires on the ground, of which I hear there are a lot. Has power been cut to those yet?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on October 14, 2018, 10:20:18 PM
I'm very afraid that they haven't released the number of disappearances. I'm scared that the people in the path didn't get enough warning. Since in these parts of  the world climate change isn't real, they might have expected a storm like the ones from the past.

If that's the case FEMA and the authorities will cover up the deaths like they did in Puerto Rico.

They should be doing the opposite. If they release estimates, and the estimates are perceived as high, angels will descend and help them. And by angels I mean good people wanting to help. If this was anything like Puerto Rico there are still thousands of people that can't leave their homes because of the debris.

The problem with this is that volunteers are free. No juicy contracts to assign.
NHC said again and again that Michael was the big one. This was repeated again and again even by Rick Scott et al. Many people did not believe it. Many people stayed even in low lying coastal areas.

Responders are searching for survivors and the dead amongst the wreckage. But the images show swathes of the coast where there is no wreckage - just the concrete pads where once there was a house - swept clean away by the storm surge. I get the horrible feeling that the death toll may rise when the bodies of those who stayed are washed ashore.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on October 14, 2018, 10:21:15 PM
Thousands are still missing after Michael.
https://eu.floridatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/10/13/hurricane-michael-survivors-scramble-food-crews-search-missing/1628842002/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on October 14, 2018, 10:27:12 PM
If you take everything together, red tide, green algea, rising sea level, hurricanes... Not a good year for Florida. And most of these things are probably going to get worse before they get better.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 15, 2018, 11:33:21 PM
Another reason Tor may not be responding ...

Verizon fiber suffered “unprecedented” damage from Hurricane Michael   
https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2018/10/verizon-fiber-suffered-unprecedented-damage-from-hurricane-michael/

Nearly 300,000 households were still without home Internet, phone, or TV service yesterday in Florida, Georgia, and Alabama, as telcos scramble to repair networks damaged by Hurricane Michael. More than 200,000 of the households without cable or wireline service are in Florida, according to the Federal Communications Commission.

Most of the home Internet outages are in Florida, where 205,643 cable or wireline subscribers remained out of service yesterday. The cable and wireline outages affect Internet, phone, and TV service.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: pileus on October 16, 2018, 02:32:47 AM
Thousands are still missing after Michael.
https://eu.floridatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/10/13/hurricane-michael-survivors-scramble-food-crews-search-missing/1628842002/

The vast majority are alive but either sans communication or just simply haven’t checked in.  It is likely the Mexico Beach toll will go up, but it’s rather incredible that the overall number isn’t truly in the thousands.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 16, 2018, 04:52:04 AM
Well, I'm back!  No damage to my home, but a few neighbors didn't fare so well, and this is some 60 miles from hurricane landfall.  My electric power went off about 3 o'clock Wednesday and came back about 3:30 Sunday.  I did watch two trees fall Wednesday afternoon, one (damaged 2 years ago by Hermine) from my property into the community road, the other a beautiful 30" diameter red oak took out part of a neighbor's tree house (and the tree in which it lived).  I cut and removed the tree in the road (now a nice brush fence next to a path in my woods).
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: DrTskoul on October 16, 2018, 04:54:04 AM
Well, I'm back!  No damage to my home, but a few neighbors didn't fare so well, and this is some 60 miles from hurricane landfall.  My electric power went off about 3 o'clock Wednesday and came back about 3:30 Sunday.  I did watch two trees fall Wednesday afternoon, one (damaged 2 years ago by Hermine) from my property into the community road, the other a beautiful 30" diameter red oak took out part of a neighbor's tree house (and the tree in which it lived).  I cut and removed the tree in the road (now a nice brush fence next to a path in my woods).

Good to hear Tor!! We are glad you are safe... Best of luck for your community's recovery.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: oren on October 16, 2018, 06:40:46 AM
Welcome back Tor!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Rod on October 16, 2018, 06:46:46 AM
Glad to hear you are safe Tor!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on October 16, 2018, 07:24:00 AM
60 miles from landfall, how big where the sustained winds at your place ?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 16, 2018, 01:12:17 PM
Storm Leslie: Portugal hit by hurricane-force winds
Quote
Hurricane-force winds have struck central and northern Portugal, leaving 300,000 homes without power.

The remnants of Hurricane Leslie swept in overnight on Saturday, with winds gusting up to 176km/h (109mph).

Civil defence officials said 27 people suffered minor injuries, with localised flooding, hundreds of trees uprooted and a number of flights cancelled.

The storm, one of the most powerful to ever hit the country, is now passing over northern Spain.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45853847
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: TerryM on October 16, 2018, 06:32:29 PM
Tor
Great to hear that you're OK!


I for one would be interested in first hand reports about how the clean-up operations are being handled, as well as the local's response to the responders.


Stay Well!
Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 16, 2018, 07:27:58 PM
60 miles from landfall, how big where the sustained winds at your place ?

I'm just guessing:  sustained strong tropical force winds above the tree tops for maybe 8 hours with TS gusts during the preceding and following 2-3 hours. [Michael remained about 60 miles (100 km) from us for a few hours as it pivoted from going North to going NE.]  I'm guessing we had Cat 1 gusts a few dozen times (at the tree tops).  At 2 meters in my yard:  occasional TS gusts.  It was odd to see tree tops violently swaying up high followed by falling leaves leisurely coming down, with a zig-zag motion.   

(I slept through the landfall of Hermine 2 years ago, even as we were in the western side of the Cat 1 eye as it 'passed by', so I don't know what that looked like.  The only other intense cyclones [?] I've experienced were in the South Pacific on a ship - no bending trees! - but hold tightly onto the rail or get blown off the ship intense winds - but I don't know how strong those winds actually were.)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on October 16, 2018, 07:55:41 PM
I never really experienced something like that, if we have wind guts up to 60 miles an hours it already sounds pretty powerfull.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on October 17, 2018, 04:17:48 AM
Tor, I'm very happy to hear you are ok. Nice description of the winds you experienced.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 17, 2018, 07:00:32 PM
Not your typical beach house.

Here's How That One Mexico Beach House Survived Hurricane Michael
“...one-foot-thick concrete walls, tall 40-foot pilings were driven deep into the ground and steel cables held the roof in place”
https://weather.com/news/news/2018-10-16-mexico-beach-home-survives-hurricane-michael
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 17, 2018, 07:33:10 PM
Pence after viewing Hurricane Michael damage: Causes of climate change 'yet to be seen' (https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/411679-pence-in-georgia-after-looking-at-hurricane-michael-damage-causes-of)

Quote
Vice President Pence on Tuesday said the causes of climate change have "yet to be seen" after he spent time viewing damage from Hurricane Michael in Georgia.

"As the president has said, the climate is changing, but what the causes of that are, are yet to be seen," he told reporters in Moultrie, Ga. "The reality is it's some of the worst storms that have ever affected this area were 50 and 100 years ago."

(https://i.pinimg.com/400x/83/19/14/83191437d301118ec03788ce84435847--political-cartoons-political-satire.jpg)

rump said Monday that "weather has been a factor" during his presidency, but added that "the worst hurricanes were 50 years ago."

The majority of the most destructive hurricanes on record have occurred in the past 50 years, according to a January report from the National Hurricane Center.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 17, 2018, 07:40:50 PM
Over 1,000 Remain Missing A Week After Hurricane Michael
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hurricane-michael-missing_us_5bc72b3de4b0d38b5873c701

PANAMA CITY BEACH, Fla. (Reuters) ― More than a thousand people were still missing on Wednesday a week after Hurricane Michael flattened communities across the Florida Panhandle, killing at least 27.

Teams made up of hundreds of volunteers with the Houston-based CrowdSource Rescue organization were searching for more than 1,135 people in Florida who lost contact with friends and family, Matthew Marchetti, co-founder of Houston-based CrowdSource Rescue.

Most of those missing are from Panama City and many are elderly, disabled, impoverished, or live alone, Marchetti said.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 18, 2018, 07:34:06 PM
Cross-posted from Floods thread
(dam has, apparently, not yet been breached - more rain in immediate area is not forecast)
Some more info:
https://tucson.com/news/local/dam-expected-to-overflow-on-tohono-o-odham-nation-evacuations/article_e278bf10-857d-5600-b571-e8449f3954bd.html (https://tucson.com/news/local/dam-expected-to-overflow-on-tohono-o-odham-nation-evacuations/article_e278bf10-857d-5600-b571-e8449f3954bd.html)

Quote
A dam on the Tohono O'odham Nation is expected to overflow and could fail due to heavy rain and flooding from remnants of tropical storm Rosa, authorities said Tuesday night.
...
Certain areas of the reservation have received up to 7 inches of rain in the last 72 hours, and rain levels of 3 to 5 inches are widespread on the reservation, said Glenn Lader, a meteorologist with the weather service in Tucson.

He said Menegers Dam is an old earthen dam that's 22 feet high.
...
Just a follow-up:  First image is a screen print of the Bing headline from a paper I cannot access confirming the Menagers Dam didn't break.  The second image (source: Mike Christy/Arizona Daily Star via AP) shows dam (upper center; dam is on the near-side of the neighboring hills), lake and village of Ali Chuk in the background on October 3rd.  My comment: a great place to store lots of water for village use (up hill and nearby), but a lousy place to live if the dam breaks!
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 20, 2018, 05:40:19 PM
Hurricane Michael Hits Coast Guard’s Largest Program, Leaving Devastation (https://breakingdefense.com/2018/10/hurricane-michael-hits-coast-guards-largest-program-leaving-devastation/)

Quote
The shipyard building the Coast Guard's biggest program, the $10 billion Offshore Patrol Cutter program, has been leveled by Hurricane Michael.

The Eastern Shipbuilding Group in Panama City took what amounts to a direct hit from the deadly storm. It overturned completed boats and damaged buildings and heavy equipment in the yard, and left the company’s 800-strong workforce scattered, with some homeless.

It is unclear what effect the storm will have on the program, but the amount of damage inflicted and the repair work on several ships nearing completion in the company’s yard would seem to indicate the path back will take some time.

The revelations of damage at the shipyard put the Coast Guard in a similar position as the Air Force and Navy, who are also assessing damage to their bases in the wake of the storm. Seventeen F-22 stealth fighter planes worth over $5 billion were damaged at Tyndall Air Base.

It was only on Sept. 28 that the Coast Guard awarded a $317.5 million option to Eastern to begin work on the first of 25 planned Offshore Patrol Cutters, a program to replace the service’s aging fleet of 29 medium endurance cutters, some of which are 50 years old. The first cutter, USCGC Argus, is expected to be delivered in 2021.

Critical Navy Center Damaged in Hurricane; LCS Modules, Mine Warfare Tests Imperiled (https://breakingdefense.com/2018/10/critical-navy-center-damaged-in-hurricane-lcs-modules-mine-warfare-tests-imperiled/)

Quote
The Naval Surface Warfare Center at Panama City took a severe hit, stopping testing of the Littoral Combat Ship mission modules and many unmanned systems the Navy is developing.

The Navy’s Capt. Danielle George, program manager for mine warfare, said that the 300 personnel under her command are safe, but that the hurricane may have caused serious damage to important equipment.

Ajit Pai Killed Rules That Could Have Helped Florida Recover From Hurricane (https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/10/ajit-pai-killed-rules-that-could-have-helped-florida-recover-from-hurricane/)

Quote
The Federal Communications Commission chairman slammed wireless carriers on Tuesday for failing to quickly restore phone service in Florida after Hurricane Michael, calling the delay "completely unacceptable."

But FCC Chairman Ajit Pai's statement ignored his agency's deregulatory blitz that left consumers without protections designed to ensure restoration of service after disasters, according to longtime telecom attorney and consumer advocate Harold Feld.

"In November 2017, Chairman Pai repealed many of the safeguards put in place by the Obama FCC following Superstorm Sandy, [which were] designed to prevent recurrence of the lengthy loss of service (and in some cases, discontinuance of service) suffered in many areas after Sandy," wrote Feld, the senior VP of advocacy group Public Knowledge.

Among other things, the November 2017 FCC action eliminated a requirement that telcos turning off copper networks must provide Americans with service at least as good as those old copper networks. This change lets carriers replace wireline service with mobile service only, even if the new mobile option wouldn't pass a "functional test" that Pai's FCC eliminated.

Additionally, "in June 2018, Chairman Pai further deregulated telephone providers to make it easier to discontinue service after a natural disaster," Feld wrote.

(https://i.redditmedia.com/GZRCSe-BDevwaChp70Ce3Flg23_hhrmebejG6wQhp4A.jpg?w=320&s=1b3c3d0d270891163de68de56fde738a)

Florida Governor Rick Scott—a Republican who is running for US Senate while he continues to govern Florida—has similarly deregulated the telecom industry in his state.

"In 2011, Governor Scott signed the 'Regulatory Reform Act of 2011,' which eliminated virtually all oversight of Florida's residential telephone service," Feld wrote. "This included repeal of Florida's 'Carrier of Last Resort' (COLR) requirements—rules that require carriers to provide service to everyone in the state—as well as repeal of Public Service Commission (PSC) regulations governing service blackouts, timeliness of repairs, or regulation of customer billing."

"The deregulation was so thorough that the Florida PSC is not even allowed to take consumer complaints about residential phone service, which conveniently prevents the collection of any data that might show deregulation has costs in terms of consumer welfare."
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: sark on October 22, 2018, 01:28:53 AM
hurricane Willa has rapidly increased intensity to Cat 4

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUEP4+shtml/212230.shtml?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: sark on October 22, 2018, 06:57:46 AM
Willa is looking like it will attain Cat 5 and bears a number of striking resemblances to Patricia of 2016

https://m.imgur.com/a/iEAjrEH
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on October 22, 2018, 08:47:08 AM
Cat 5 is absent in forecast. Nevertheless, major hurricane landfall is likely.
(https://pp.userapi.com/c850232/v850232017/53758/wfWt924-tOw.jpg)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 22, 2018, 03:32:10 PM
Hurricane Willa
Locally, up to 18 inches of rain is possible in western Jalisco, western Nayarit and southern Sinaloa in Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Up to 6 inches of rain is possible farther inland across Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua and Coahuila.

Tropical Storm Vicente
...the main threat from Vicente is heavy rainfall. Vicente or its remnant is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain in parts of southern Mexico, with locally up to 10 inches over portions of Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima and Jalisco.
Flash flooding and landslides could threaten southern Mexico, particularly in the mountainous terrain.


https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-20-tropical-storm-hurricane-willa-vicente-gulf-tropical-moisture
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on October 22, 2018, 03:55:43 PM
Hurricane Michael caused 1.7 million electricity outages in the Southeast United States


https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37332

Quote
Hurricane Michael resulted in outages for up to 1.7 million electricity customers across six states, according to situation reports from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response. On Wednesday, October 10, 2018, the storm made landfall as a Category 4 storm near Mexico Beach in the Florida panhandle. During the following two days, Hurricane Michael traveled through Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia with heavy rainfall and up to 65 mile-per-hour winds.

Outages were highest in Virginia, where peak outages reached 523,000 customers, or about 14% of the state, on October 12. North Carolina also saw significant outages on that day, reaching 492,000 customers, or 10% of the state. As of October 19, power had been restored to 93% of customers who experienced a storm-related outage.

Of the 125,000 customers still without power on October 19, more than 80% were in Florida. Gulf Power, which serves 459,000 customers in northwestern Florida, estimates that some customers may not have power restored until October 24. Duke Energy, which serves Mexico Beach, cannot currently estimate recovery times because much of the infrastructure in the area where the storm made landfall will need to be rebuilt.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on October 22, 2018, 05:03:55 PM
Hurricane Willa Public Advisory (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP4+shtml/)
Quote
...WILLA BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 107.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 23, 2018, 06:34:19 PM
Tree Ring Study: Evidence of Poleward Migration of Tropical Storms (https://phys.org/news/2018-10-tree-evidence-poleward-migration-tropical.html)

An international team of researchers has found evidence in tree rings that backs up prior research suggesting tropical cyclones (typhoons in the east, hurricanes in the west) are migrating slowly toward the Earth's poles. In their paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the group describes their study of tree ring samples taken from sites in northeastern Asia and what they found.

Prior research has shown that when cyclones make their way onshore, the impact on surviving trees in the vicinity is reflected in their tree rings. The researchers refer to these events as canopy disturbances. In all, the team looked at ring samples from 54 species of trees that showed evidence of tropical cyclones over the past century. They then compared the rings with records kept of cyclones in the area.

The researchers found evidence of tree damage creeping north starting after the 1920s. They note such a migration is likely to have a major impact on areas that are situated at the edge of past tropical cyclone activity. They suggest people in those areas need to start making mitigation preparations, as they will likely be exposed to such threats in the future.

Jan Altman et al. Poleward migration of the destructive effects of tropical cyclones during the 20th century (http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/10/16/1808979115), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2018)
Quote
Abstract
Determination of long-term tropical cyclone (TC) variability is of enormous importance to society; however, changes in TC activity are poorly understood owing to discrepancies among various datasets and limited span of instrumental records. While the increasing intensity and frequency of TCs have been previously documented on a long-term scale using various proxy records, determination of their poleward migration has been based mostly on short-term instrumental data. Here we present a unique tree-ring–based approach for determination of long-term variability in TC activity via forest disturbance rates in northeast Asia (33–45°N). Our results indicate significant long-term changes in TC activity, with increased rates of disturbances in the northern latitudes over the past century. The disturbance frequency was stable over time in the southern latitudes, however. Our findings of increasing disturbance frequency in the areas formerly situated at the edge of TC activity provide evidence supporting the broad relevance of poleward migration of TCs. Our results significantly enhance our understanding of the effects of climate change on TCs and emphasize the need for determination of long-term variation of past TC activity to improve future TC projections.

Significance
Long-term variability in tropical cyclone (TC) activity is of high relevance for the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies; however, our current knowledge is based mostly on short-term records, with strong discrepancies among various datasets. We used tree-ring records of past forest disturbances to show rapid increases in the destructive effects of TCs during the 20th century. Long-term changes in TC activity imply that the recent poleward migration of TCs is not within the range of long-term natural variability and may be associated with climate change. Our findings are important, as affected regions were formerly situated at the edge of areas affected by TCs, and these areas are more sensitive to TC hazards because of a lack of experience-based adaptation strategies.

See also: The Poleward Migration of the Location of Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity (https://www.nature.com/articles/nature13278)

(https://media.springernature.com/m685/nature-assets/nature/journal/v509/n7500/images_hires/nature13278-sf1.jpg)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Iceismylife on October 23, 2018, 07:43:35 PM
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/10/23/2100Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-145.54,60.48,794/loc=-148.891,58.120

Is that a hurricane forming? Or is it a GAC?  Do hurricanes even forum that far north?
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 23, 2018, 07:45:59 PM
Hurricane Willa to become Nor'easter, hit East Coast this weekend after slamming Mexico (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-willa-mexico-track-noreaster-this-weekend-east-coast-23-10-2018/)

The storm is on track to become the East Coast's first major Nor'easter of the season, bringing damaging winds, pounding surf and even some heavy, wet inland snow this weekend.

(https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/78/590x/secondary/Hurricane-Willa-tracker-LIVE-updates-1565463.jpg?r=1540300556519)

While the storm is forecast to lose strength as it crosses the mountains of Mexico, it will retain its identity as it moves towards Texas. And that is where the transition from tropical storm system to Nor'easter will begin. There will be some big impacts along the way.

In Texas, up to several inches of rain will fall on already saturated ground. Having endured major flooding in the Hill Country less than a week ago, Texans are preparing for round two Wednesday. This time the rain will not be nearly as heavy and it won't last as long. But flash flooding is a threat in localized downpours.

And that's just the beginning as the storm moves into the deep South.

On Thursday, strong thunderstorms will pound some of the same areas ravaged by Hurricane Michael. Torrential downpours and isolated tornadoes are possible from Louisiana to Mississippi, Alabama, northern Florida and Georgia. The largest threat for tornadoes will be the Florida Panhandle and South Georgia.

Then the system re-energizes. The remnants of Willa will merge with a cold front, round the corner and then hug the Eastern Seaboard, becoming a significant Nor'easter for all of the East Coast as we head into the weekend.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqG-9reXcAEMsGW.jpg)
https://twitter.com/joecioffi/status/1054333756591534080/photo/1

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqM3uImWsAAf_jE.jpg)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqM3u5TX0AAc58d.jpg)
https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1054748716886831104/photo/1

That raw weather will barrel up the Eastern Seaboard and make for a miserable Saturday in the Northeast. At this point the storm will be a full-fledged Nor'easter, and a very strong one for this early in the season. Gusts of 50-70 mph and ocean waves up to 20 feet will lash coastal areas from Virginia to New England. Coastal flooding is possible in normally vulnerable areas.

Some areas in Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine could pick up a foot of snow. The cement-like snow will weigh down power lines and, combined with gusty winds, may cause scattered power outages. 
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 23, 2018, 07:49:40 PM
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/10/23/2100Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-145.54,60.48,794/loc=-148.891,58.120

Is that a hurricane forming? Or is it a GAC?  Do hurricanes even forum that far north?
At 32 km/h (20 miles/hr) it doesn't seem too powerful.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Iceismylife on October 23, 2018, 07:52:33 PM
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/10/23/2100Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-145.54,60.48,794/loc=-148.891,58.120

Is that a hurricane forming? Or is it a GAC?  Do hurricanes even forum that far north?
At 32 km/h (20 miles/hr) it doesn't seem too powerful.
I saw but didn't link to something like 80 km/h  edge of hurricane strength.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 23, 2018, 08:52:52 PM
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/10/23/2100Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-145.54,60.48,794/loc=-148.891,58.120

Is that a hurricane forming? Or is it a GAC?  Do hurricanes even forum that far north?
At 32 km/h (20 miles/hr) it doesn't seem too powerful.
I saw but didn't link to something like 80 km/h  edge of hurricane strength.
Not quite, It still has a way to go ...

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

Cat 1 - 119-153 km/h - 74-95 mph - 64-82 kt
Cat 2 - 154-177 km/h - 96-110 mph - 83-95 kt
Cat 3 - 178-208 km/h - 111-129 mph - 96-112 kt
Cat 4 - 209-251 km/h - 130-156 mph - 113-136 kt
Cat 5 - >

It'll be a little choppy - not sailboat weather - but, without any ice in the vicinity, it seems pretty harmless.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 23, 2018, 09:08:16 PM
Strong Indian Monsoons Steer Atlantic Hurricanes Towards Land (https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-10/agu-sim102318.php)
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-10/agu-sim102318.php

Strong monsoons in the Indian Ocean can induce easterly winds that push Atlantic Ocean hurricanes westward, increasing the likelihood they'll make landfall in the Americas, according to new research.

A new study finds that in years where summer rainstorms in India are stronger, Atlantic hurricanes move further westward towards land. In years where the rains aren't as strong, hurricanes tend to curve northward earlier and fizzle out in the north Atlantic Ocean.

The Indian monsoon season has typically waned by September, but climate projections suggest that under future warming conditions, monsoon precipitation will increase, and the monsoon season could end later in the year. As the climate continues to warm, the monsoon could have an increasing influence on the paths of Atlantic hurricanes, according to the new study.

Previous research has attributed changes in hurricane steering to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature and air pressure in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Scientists have traditionally relied on the La Niña cool phase of ENSO to make predictions about how strong a particular Atlantic hurricane season will be, but have trouble forecasting the paths of individual hurricanes.

Strong monsoons influence hurricane steering by enhancing the effects of the North Atlantic subtropical high, a center of high atmospheric pressure in the Atlantic Ocean. When the subtropical high increases, stronger winds come from the east and push hurricanes westward.

According to Kelly, La Niña and the Indian monsoon are correlated, but the strength of the monsoon influences the steering of hurricanes independently of La Niña fluctuations, which are responsible for changes in hurricane frequency. In other words, La Niña fluctuations may result in more Atlantic hurricanes, but strong Indian monsoons steer them further westward, making it more likely they will make landfall in the Americas.

It's important to account for the correlation when studying hurricane steering and landfall probability.

"This work untangles La Niña's role on frequency, whether there are more or less hurricanes, from the steering impacts of winds, governed by the Indian monsoon," Kelly said. "La Niña events often happen during a strong monsoon, and they are correlated, but this work helps separate the independent influence of those two phenomena."

Patrick Kelly et al, Shape of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks and the Indian Monsoon (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL080098), Geophysical Research Letters (2018). https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL080098

(https://wol-prod-cdn.literatumonline.com/cms/attachment/76c3457f-ef16-430d-a352-8d7af6f6cbff/grl58084-fig-0001-m.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on October 24, 2018, 09:54:43 AM
Another super typhoon.

https://watchers.news/2018/10/23/typhoon-yutu-marianas-october-2018/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on October 24, 2018, 03:00:23 PM
The strongest typhoon this year.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 24, 2018, 06:37:37 PM
Philip Klotzbach: "The 2018 Northeast Pacific (to 180°) #hurricane season has generated a whopping 34.5 major (Category 3+) hurricane days to date - shattering the old seasonal record of 24 major hurricane days set in 2015. #Willa”
https://mobile.twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1054761428656082944
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 24, 2018, 07:18:47 PM
Hawaiian Island Erased by Powerful Hurricane (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/24/hawaiian-island-erased-by-powerful-hurricane)
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/24/hawaiian-island-erased-by-powerful-hurricane

A piece of the United States has been dramatically wiped off the map after an island in Hawaii was washed away by a powerful hurricane.

East Island, a remote spit of gravel and sand that sat atop a coral reef, has vanished after having this misfortune to come into contact with Hurricane Walaka, an intense storm that surged past Hawaii earlier this month.

Scientists have confirmed the disappearance of the 11-acre island after comparing satellite images of the surrounding French Frigate Shoals, part of an enormous protected marine area in the north-western Hawaiian Islands.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on October 24, 2018, 07:35:51 PM
Pressure decreased below 900 mb near the Mariana Islands.
31W YUTU (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/)
Quote
As of 12:00 UTC Oct 24, 2018:

Location: 14.6°N 146.2°E
Maximum Winds: 155 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 899 mb
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 25, 2018, 04:32:04 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqSRLaJVAAECP3i?format=jpg)
https://www.npr.org/2018/10/24/660224741/super-typhoon-yutu-strongest-storm-of-2018-slams-u-s-pacific-territory

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/1055132947882409984
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 25, 2018, 03:54:09 PM
Super Typhoon Yutu Impacts: Saipan, Tinian Suffer Widespread Damage; Water and Electricity Could Be Out for Weeks
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-24-typhoon-yutu-impacts-northern-mariana-islands
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on October 27, 2018, 01:56:52 PM
Seventh subtropical storm appears in the Atlantic basin.
(https://pp.userapi.com/c849036/v849036560/a5386/b5_fj0Veb6w.jpg)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on October 27, 2018, 07:34:28 PM
Looks like Yutu will hit the Philippines much further south than Mankhut.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 28, 2018, 11:08:46 PM
”Yutu is the fifth Category 4 or 5 tropical cyclone to make landfall in the past 15 months on U.S. soil. No previous decade has had more than four such strikes on American shorelines, making this an outbreak unseen in nearly 170 years of recorded weather history.

Like so many recent hurricanes, Yutu rapidly strengthened just before landfall, going from a Category 1 to a Category 5 in just 36 hours. Waters near Yutu were 2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal, consistent with the effects of climate change and a key factor in rapidly strengthening storms.”

Typhoon Yutu spurs disaster in a remote U.S. territory
https://grist.org/article/typhoon-yutu-spurs-disaster-in-a-remote-u-s-territory/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 29, 2018, 02:32:57 PM
Seventh subtropical storm appears in the Atlantic basin.

Oscar is now a hurricane:
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on October 29, 2018, 04:34:40 PM
Satellite photos reveal the wrath of Yutu, one of Earth's strongest storms (https://www.axios.com/before-after-satellite-photos-show-damage-super-typhoon-yutu-f9ad37f4-5fe3-4a1b-998f-31573e3d563b.html)

Super Typhoon Yutu struck the Northern Mariana Islands on October 24, packing maximum sustained winds of 180 miles per hour and gusts higher than 200 mph. This made it the most intense storm to strike U.S. soil since at least 1935, and one of the strongest storms ever measured on Earth.

At one point, the eye of Super Typhoon Yutu completely engulfed Tinian. Meteorologists are combing through the debris for clues as to how high the winds actually got, since no anemometer survived the onslaught to provide accurate readings.

https://images.axios.com/XQuAlXM-rPmh1q42tOvcCwa5yNU=/2018/10/28/1540693705813.gif

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 30, 2018, 02:59:13 PM
5 Reasons the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Has Been Unusual
Quote
Hurricane season still has about a month left to go, but it's already been memorable for several unusual reasons.
Through Oct. 28, the Atlantic has produced 15 named storms, of which, eight strengthened into hurricanes. That's above the 1981-2010 average of 12 named storms and 6 hurricanes per year. ...
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-29-2018-atlantic-hurricane-season-unusual
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 11, 2018, 08:40:35 PM
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack)
11/11/18, 1:43 PM
NHC indicates high chance of development now with tropical wave as it moves north of the Caribbean islands this coming week.
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1061690997208477696
<< Still thinking it will turn?
MS:  Yes - only concerns I see would be shipping and cruise interests. Will discuss in detail during my video post tomorrow.

Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: bligh8 on November 12, 2018, 03:07:21 PM
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A vigorous tropical wave located about 200 miles east of the Leeward
Islands is producing a large area of disturbed weather over much of
the western tropical Atlantic Ocean. Shower and thunderstorm
activity has increased and become a little more concentrated this
morning, and environmental conditions are forecast to gradually
become more conducive for the development of a tropical depression
or a tropical storm during the next day or so. The disturbance is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward for the next few
days, passing near or north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas. Interests in these areas
should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: bligh8 on November 13, 2018, 03:05:31 PM
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms moving through the
Leeward Islands are associated with a tropical wave interacting
with an upper-level low.  Strong upper-level winds and interaction
with the islands of the Greater Antilles, while the system moves
generally westward, should inhibit tropical cyclone formation.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring locally
heavy rainfall to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Roberts
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on November 14, 2018, 07:54:38 PM
Storms of Our Grandchildren? Something to look forward to ...

Climate Simulations Project Wetter, Windier Hurricanes
https://m.phys.org/news/2018-11-climate-simulations-wetter-windier-hurricanes.html

(https://3c1703fe8d.site.internapcdn.net/newman/gfx/news/2018/climatesimul.jpg)
The computer simulation on the left shows the rainfall intensity of Hurricane Maria under actual conditions. The other images show how much anthropogenic warming already has impacted rainfall intensity (middle) and its projected impact in a warmer climate (RCP8.5). Green areas indicate heavier rain while brown areas mean less rain.   

New supercomputer simulations by climate scientists at the Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) have shown that climate change intensified the amount of rainfall in recent hurricanes such as Katrina, Irma, and Maria by 5 to 10 percent. They further found that if those hurricanes were to occur in a future world that is warmer than present, those storms would have even more rainfall and stronger winds.

... They found that rainfall could increase 15 to 35 percent in the future scenarios. Wind speeds increased by as much as 25 knots, although most hurricanes saw increases of 10 to 15 knots. "The fact that almost all of the 15 tropical cyclones responded in a similar way gives confidence in the results," Patricola said.

Another interesting finding was that the structure of storms may change where rainfall is more intense in the eye of the hurricane but less intense on the outer edges. "In a warmer world the inner part of the storm is robbing moisture from the outer part of storm," Wehner said.

The study, "Anthropogenic Influences on Major Tropical Cyclone Events," will be published November 15 in the journal Nature.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0673-2
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on November 16, 2018, 09:05:26 PM
Storm Gaja leaped over India into the Arabian Sea. With 6 cyclonic storms, 2018 North Indian season is the most active since 1998.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on November 21, 2018, 04:39:05 PM
Pacific Ocean Typhoons Intensifying More Than Previously Projected
https://phys.org/news/2018-11-pacific-ocean-typhoons-previously.html

Quote
Changes to the uppermost layer of Earth's oceans due to rising temperatures are likely causing an increase in intense Pacific Ocean typhoons, suggesting strong typhoons may occur more frequently than scientists project in the coming decades, according to new research.

... A new study published in Earth's Future, a journal of the American Geophysical Union, finds the ocean mixed layer deepened along tropical cyclone tracks by 1.7–2.0 meters from 2002-2015, while other factors changed only marginally. The authors conclude this deepening could be responsible for the uptick in intense typhoons from 1980 to 2015, and they project the increase of intense typhoons will continue at a greater rate than previously projected in the coming decades.

In the new study, Wu and his team examined the contributions of various factors controlling typhoon intensity change, such as sea surface temperatures, the temperature of outward flowing air and water, ocean mixed layer depth, and vertical wind shear, as well as shifts in the tropical cyclone tracks. They used computer simulations to compare each factor with observed tropical cyclone intensities in the western North Pacific basin for each year from 1980-2015.

After quantifying the contribution of each environmental factor to tropical cyclone intensity, they determined that the increase in the proportion of intense typhoons was largely due to a deepening of the ocean mixed layer. This deepening is in turn caused by variations in ocean and atmospheric conditions.

The deepening of the ocean mixed layer is just one of many substantial changes to atmospheric and ocean circulations that have occurred in the western North Pacific since 2000 as a result of climate change, according to the researchers. Deepening of the ocean mixed layer is likely the major reason for the sudden increase in the proportion of intense typhoons in 2001, Wu said.

Because previous studies have not accounted for ocean mixed layer depth in their projections, the authors conclude that future typhoons in the North Pacific may be increasingly intense, and to an even greater degree than previously thought.

Open Access: Liguang Wu et al. Dominant Role of the Ocean Mixed Layer Depth in the Increased Proportion of Intense Typhoons During 1980-2015 (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018EF000973), Earth's Future (2018).
Quote
Abstract:

Over the past decade extensive studies have been undertaken to understand the increasing trend in the proportion of intense tropical cyclones (categories 4 and 5 on the Saffir‐Simpson scale). The trend has been found globally and in some individual basins since the late 1970s. This study quantifies the contributions of various factors that control the proportion of intense typhoons. It is demonstrated that the increase of the proportion of intense typhoons during 1980–2015 is consistent with the corresponding changes in the ocean/atmosphere environment. The proportion change resulted from the temporal variations of the environmental parameters (sea surface temperature, ocean mixed layer depth, outflow temperature, and vertical wind shear), as well as the shifts of tropical cyclone prevailing tracks. The nonuniform spatial distribution of environmental parameters makes the shifts of tropical cyclone prevailing tracks contribute at least half the increase of the proportion of intense typhoons. The deepening of the ocean mixed layer resulting from the temporal variations and track shifts plays a dominant role in the observed increase of the proportion of intense typhoons. Although the maximum potential intensity theory and numerical modeling project an increase of tropical cyclone intensity in a warming climate, the effects of the temporal change of the ocean mixed layer depth and the prevailing track change were not taken into account in the projection. This study suggests that the increase of the proportion of intense typhoons in the western North Pacific basin could be larger than the projection in previous studies.

Plain Language Summary:

The increasing trend in the proportion of intense tropical cyclones (categories 4 and 5 on the Saffir‐Simpson scale) has been found globally and in some individual basins since the late 1970s. Although extensive studies have been undertaken over the past decade, its attribution still is a subject of controversy. This study quantifies the contributions of various factors that control the proportion of intense typhoons in the western North Pacific and found that the increase of the proportion of intense typhoons during 1980–2015 is consistent with the corresponding changes in the ocean/atmosphere environment. The proportion change resulted from the temporal variations of the environmental parameters (sea surface temperature, ocean mixed layer depth, outflow temperature, and vertical wind shear), as well as the shifts of tropical cyclone prevailing tracks. The deepening of the ocean mixed layer resulting from the temporal variations and track shifts plays a dominant role in the observed increase of the proportion of intense typhoons. This study suggests that the tropical cyclone intensification could be larger than the projection since the change of the ocean mixed layer was not taken into account in previous studies.
(https://wol-prod-cdn.literatumonline.com/cms/attachment/fba20b15-151a-4a7f-9c35-0975ebb15576/eft2474-fig-0001-m.jpg)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 12, 2018, 04:10:56 PM
U.S.

Houston_First won’t recover from the economic hit of Hurricane Harvey until well into the next decade.

Houston First Tightens Belt To Pay Off Harvey Damage
https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/2018/12/11/315061/houston-first-tightens-belt-to-pay-off-harvey-damage/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: dnem on December 12, 2018, 05:13:31 PM
U.S.

Houston_First won’t recover from the economic hit of Hurricane Harvey until well into the next decade.

Houston First Tightens Belt To Pay Off Harvey Damage
https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/2018/12/11/315061/houston-first-tightens-belt-to-pay-off-harvey-damage/

And that's if it doesn't get slammed again in the interim.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: pikaia on December 13, 2018, 08:26:26 AM
Puerto Rico's recovery from Maria.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/144371/night-lights-show-slow-recovery-from-maria
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: gerontocrat on December 14, 2018, 01:52:26 PM
More about cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere now.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on December 22, 2018, 01:29:17 AM
The strongest cyclone in South-West Indian Ocean since 2015/2016 season.

Quote
07S CILIDA
As of 18:00 UTC Dec 21, 2018:

Location: 15.6°S 57.7°E
Maximum Winds: 130 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 932 mb
Source (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on February 08, 2019, 06:22:44 PM
Landslides Triggered by Hurricane Maria
https://phys.org/news/2019-02-landslides-triggered-hurricane-maria.html

Hurricane Maria hit the island of Puerto Rico on 20 September 2017 and triggered more than 40,000 landslides in at least three-fourths of Puerto Rico's 78 municipalities. In a new article from GSA Today, authors Erin Bessette-Kirton and colleagues write that "the number of landslides that occurred during this event was two orders of magnitude (100 fold) greater than those reported from previous hurricanes."

The authors, from the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Puerto Rico, evaluate the extent and characteristics of Maria-induced landslides throughout Puerto Rico. They present an assessment of island-wide landslide density, which they compare, in conjunction with rainfall data, to tropical cyclone systems that have affected Puerto Rico since 1960. Additionally, they discuss the conditions specific to landsliding in Puerto Rico and examine the impact of environmental variables (e.g., rainfall, soil moisture, and geology) on observed variations in island-wide landsliding.

In their analysis, they show that the average rainfall from Hurricane Maria in mountainous areas was greater than that of any other hurricane or tropical storm in Puerto Rico since 1960.

(https://www.geosociety.org/gsatoday/science/G383A/figure/f04.jpg)

Open Access: Erin Bessette-Kirton et al. Landslides Triggered by Hurricane Maria: Assessment of an Extreme Event in Puerto Rico (https://www.geosociety.org/gsatoday/science/G383A/article.htm), GSA Today (2019)
................

Didn't the Permian-Triassic extinction event have something similar to this? Different cause, but similar erosion.

Catastrophic soil erosion during the end-Permian biotic crisis
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/12/051202085309.htm

Quote
Organic geochemical analyses of sedimentary organic matter from a marine Permian-Triassic transition sequence in northeastern Italy reveal a significant influx of land-derived diagenetic products of polysaccharides. This unique event reflects massive soil erosion resulting from destruction of land vegetation due to volcanogenic disturbance of atmospheric chemistry. The excessive supply of soil materials to the oceans provides a direct link between terrestrial and marine ecological crises, suggesting that ecosystem collapse on land could have contributed to the end-Permian marine extinctions.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/10/101028113614.htm

Quote
... When erosion seven times the normal rate sent large flows of nutrients into the ocean, it created conditions much like the over-fertilization we see today near the outlets of large rivers. As it does today, this condition led to a microbial feeding frenzy and the removal of oxygen -- and life -- from the late Permian ocean.

"If there is a lesson to all this," Algeo said, "it is a reminder that things can get out of whack pretty quickly and pretty seriously. We are used to a stable world, but it may not always be so stable."

Effects of soil erosion and anoxic–euxinic ocean in the Permian–Triassic marine crisis
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4983274/
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on February 11, 2019, 07:55:42 PM
New Crops Proposed — Hemp and Hops — After Hurricane Michael Devastation
https://www.pnj.com/story/news/2019/02/11/new-crops-proposed-hemp-and-hops-after-hurricane-michael-devastation/2817024002/

TALLAHASSEE — Hemp and hops are being promoted among alternatives for crops wiped out by Hurricane Michael in the eastern Panhandle.

Glen Aiken, director of the University of Florida’s North Florida Research and Education Center, said Monday the need for alternatives has grown as farmers in an eight-county region suffered most of the estimated $1.5 billion hit to the state’s agriculture industry in the October storm. ...

Quote
... “I know of an entrepreneur in Kentucky that processes hemp sausage,” Aiken said. “It’s hemp and pork combined. I had some. It’s not the best sausage I’ve ever ate, but it wasn’t too bad either.”

... Hurricane Michael's damage to the agriculture industry came a year after Hurricane Irma ravaged citrus growers in many areas of the state. But Shannon Shepp, executive director of the Florida Department of Citrus, told the Senate committee Monday that 'the worst is over' for citrus growers.

Quote
“We do believe the bottom is behind us,” Shepp told the committee. “I like to say this is going to be an upward trajectory. There is a lot of replanting going on and a lot of good success stories coming out of the labs.”

Hate to burst your bubble there, but ...

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimages7.memedroid.com%2Fimages%2FUPLOADED735%2F5966c63913176.jpeg&hash=b6708957749c575645404f486018adb8)

------------------------------------

Hurricanes Strengthening Faster in the Atlantic; Climate Change is a Big Reason Why
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/02/07/hurricanes-are-strengthening-faster-atlantic-climate-change-is-big-reason-why-scientists-say/

A group of top hurricane experts, including several federal researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, published striking new research Thursday suggesting that hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean have grown considerably worse, and climate change is part of the reason why.

The study focused on rapid intensification, in which hurricanes may grow from a weak tropical storm or Category 1 status to Category 4 or 5 in a brief period. They found that the trend has been seen repeatedly in the Atlantic in recent years. It happened before Hurricane Harvey struck Texas and before Hurricane Michael pummeled the Gulf Coast with little warning last fall. Hurricane Michael, for example, transformed from a Category 1 into a raging Category 4 in the span of 24 hours.

The study, published in Nature Communications, describes its conclusion in blunt language, finding that the Atlantic already has seen “highly unusual” changes in rapid hurricane intensification, compared to what models would predict from natural swings in the climate. That led researchers to conclude that climate change played a significant role.

Open Access: Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08471-z)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08471-z

(https://media.springernature.com/m685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41467-019-08471-z/MediaObjects/41467_2019_8471_Fig6_HTML.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on February 13, 2019, 11:53:33 PM
Brock Long: US Emergency Management Chief Resigns 
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47234227

US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) chief Brock Long has announced his resignation, the latest senior name to leave the Donald Trump administration.

In the post since June 2017, he has led the response to several extreme natural disasters, including the heavily criticised operation in Puerto Rico after a devastating hurricane.

Right after he took over, powerful hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria hit in quick succession, devastating parts of Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico, where some 3,000 people were killed and residents remained without electricity for months.

Last year, two strong hurricanes, Florence and Michael, hit the south-eastern US. Meanwhile wildfires caused a number of deaths in California.

Mr Long was also involved in a row over the use of government resources.

A report by the Department of Homeland Security's inspector general said Mr Long would have to reimburse the government $151,000 (£117,000) related to costs of vehicles and staff involved in private trips, many of them between Washington and his home in North Carolina. 

(https://i3.cpcache.com/product/42574024/Brownie_Youre_Doing_a_Heck_Button_300x300.jpg?height=300&width=300&qv=90&side=front)

-----------------------

Mediterranean Hurricanes Expected to Increase in Strength by End of Century 
https://phys.org/news/2019-02-mediterranean-hurricanes-strength-century.html
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Archimid on April 19, 2019, 07:07:26 PM
Hurricane Michael Was a Category 5 at Landfall, Only the Fourth in U.S. Records, National Hurricane Center Says

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2019-04-19-hurricane-michael-upgraded-category-5-us-landfall

Quote
After analysis, the National Hurricane Center found Hurricane Michael made landfall at Cat. 5 intensity.
Michael was only the fourth Category 5 landfall on record in the U.S.
Camille in 1969 was the only other northern Gulf Coast Category 5 landfall.
Hurricane Andrew in 1992 was also upgraded to Cat. 5 landfall status after NHC post-analysis.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on April 21, 2019, 11:49:03 AM
And again the african east coast, a little further north.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Alexander555 on April 21, 2019, 11:57:20 AM
Accumulated rainfall for the next 10 days, up to 700 mm.
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: vox_mundi on April 24, 2019, 04:10:33 AM
Still Reeling From Idai, Mozambique Faces Another Powerful Cyclone This Week 
https://earther.gizmodo.com/still-reeling-from-idai-mozambique-faces-another-power-1834252575

(https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--8tLcQodY--/c_fill,f_auto,fl_progressive,g_center,h_358,q_80,w_636/dqpir7mdm5fv8zz3buce.jpg)

... Cyclone Kenneth is chugging from the Pacific toward Mozambique. Currently the equivalent of a tropical storm with sustained winds of about 52 mph, the cyclone is expected to strengthen in the coming days. Cyclone Kenneth is forecast to strafe the island nation of Comoros before plowing into Mozambique’s northern coast on Thursday or early Friday.

The island archipelago of Comoros could actually bear the worst impacts of Kenneth, wind-wise. The storm is expected to top out at 103 mph—the equivalent of a Category 2 storm—early on Thursday as it hits Comoros’ main island. That would make it the first hurricane-force storm in recorded history to make landfall in Comoros, according to data kept by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The 3,000-foot escarpments on the northern end of the island could help weaken Kenneth a bit before the storm strike Mozambique later that day as a strong Category 1 with winds of up to 92 mph ... But that’s where the marginally good news comparisons end. There are a number of population centers still in this storm’s path according, to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast. They include Pemba, a city of roughly 200,000, and Palma, a small town that’s a hub of liquified natural gas exports.

As with Idai, rain is also a major concern. The storm is expected to slowly move inland, a recipe for copious rain and flooding. Up to 20 inches of rain could fall according to Bloomberg, totals that are worrisomely in line with Idai’s forecast.

Any people requiring help in the wake of Cyclone Kenneth will have to rely on a support system still overtaxed by Idai. There are still more than 77,000 internally displaced people and the United Nations reports that even a month after the storm, aid workers are finding communities that have been cut off from the outside world. A cholera outbreak fueled by the Idai’s floodwaters has affected more than 6,000. According to another United Nations report released on Saturday, “[m]any interior roads remain inaccessible, as numerous secondary roads were washed away or cut off.”
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Aluminium on April 24, 2019, 08:04:24 AM
This topic is about 2018. Hurricane Season 2019 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2569.0.html).
Title: Re: Hurricane season 2018
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 03, 2019, 12:59:05 PM
Hurricane Florence still hurts Carolina rivers:
https://www.postandcourier.com/hurricanewire/rivers-in-sc-and-nc-are-still-feeling-the-effects/article_e844c758-7b1f-11e9-a4c6-f730f28dd8b4.html