Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Arctic sea ice => Topic started by: Iceismylife on March 09, 2018, 06:43:30 PM

Title: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Iceismylife on March 09, 2018, 06:43:30 PM
NM also stands for No More off-topic, please.  :)
Please put off topic comments here. :)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Juan C. García on March 09, 2018, 07:34:52 PM
And it will be great if we keep this topic [without any specific subject] empty!!!  ::)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Iceismylife on March 09, 2018, 07:41:03 PM
And it will be great if we keep this topic [without any specific subject] empty!!!  ::)
If you click on the linked conversation you will see that it tends to clutter up a scientific discussion.  But put it here and we still have fun but not at the expense of disrupting a meaningful conversation.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: johnm33 on March 17, 2018, 01:21:33 PM
Interesting to see that particular cloud formation in the bottom right of this picture.



Anyone studying cloud formations in the arctic?

This is  reminiscent of some features usually seen well in to the melting season and further South. Close up it looks like a carpet pile and am I right in thinking it's streaming away from the area of high ice disintegration
I wondered about this type of cloud formation, I was thinking about tidal action at the time and found that wherever I expected to see evidence of tidal/current induced turbulence there was a strong likelyhood of this type of cloud streaming away from the ice edge. So I suspect that there's some residual spin/am in the water molecules even when they've undergone phase transition, and that that's responsible for these more or less coherent streamers. There's simply not enough timely images and too many variables to be confident it's the right explanation though.
Link to relevent image https://go.nasa.gov/2GCOxBs and one to when I would expect extreme tidal movements. https://go.nasa.gov/2FSIp6Z
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 17, 2018, 03:14:53 PM
If the Republicans don't realize they are suppose to serve this country, Trump will not exit the White House until hell freezes over.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: epiphyte on March 17, 2018, 04:52:22 PM
When I was this thread I though "At last! a thread on the meaninglessness whole-hemisphere extent as a marker of the transition between freezing and melting season!"

...but no. Nothing to see here - Carry on.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: SteveMDFP on March 17, 2018, 05:07:35 PM
If the Republicans don't realize they are suppose to serve this country, Trump will not exit the White House until hell freezes over.

True to a first approximation.   To add precision, it's implausible that Trump will have a second term.

Also, the congressional Republicans will abandon Trump when it is in their individual, personal interests to do so.  I've found the behavior of a number of Republicans difficult to fathom.  Strong, even visceral critics have become lapdogs.  I conclude they've decided it is in their individual, personal interests to be lapdogs.  Many are plenty wealthy, and would not be easily purchased.  But they all want power, to be re-elected.  I conclude that someone like the Mercers have told them that if they harm Trump's reign, they will face primary challenges with the opponent having limitless dark money funding. 

That would explain things fairly tidily.  Can't see a reasonable alternative explanation.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 17, 2018, 06:09:03 PM
If the Republicans don't realize they are suppose to serve this country, Trump will not exit the White House until hell freezes over.

True to a first approximation.   To add precision, it's implausible that Trump will have a second term.

Also, the congressional Republicans will abandon Trump when it is in their individual, personal interests to do so.  I've found the behavior of a number of Republicans difficult to fathom.  Strong, even visceral critics have become lapdogs.  I conclude they've decided it is in their individual, personal interests to be lapdogs.  Many are plenty wealthy, and would not be easily purchased.  But they all want power, to be re-elected.  I conclude that someone like the Mercers have told them that if they harm Trump's reign, they will face primary challenges with the opponent having limitless dark money funding. 

That would explain things fairly tidily.  Can't see a reasonable alternative explanation.

I said this just so I could use the phrase "hell freezes over" It seemed appropriate.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Tor Bejnar on March 17, 2018, 08:04:58 PM
The poor Devil; the one place that 'loves' heat is going to freeze over.  What an insult to evil.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Dharma Rupa on March 17, 2018, 08:13:06 PM
The poor Devil; the one place that 'loves' heat is going to freeze over.  What an insult to evil.

I gather you have never read Dante's Inferno (Hell).
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Daniel B. on March 17, 2018, 08:13:22 PM
If the Republicans don't realize they are suppose to serve this country, Trump will not exit the White House until hell freezes over.

True to a first approximation.   To add precision, it's implausible that Trump will have a second term.

Also, the congressional Republicans will abandon Trump when it is in their individual, personal interests to do so.  I've found the behavior of a number of Republicans difficult to fathom.  Strong, even visceral critics have become lapdogs.  I conclude they've decided it is in their individual, personal interests to be lapdogs.  Many are plenty wealthy, and would not be easily purchased.  But they all want power, to be re-elected.  I conclude that someone like the Mercers have told them that if they harm Trump's reign, they will face primary challenges with the opponent having limitless dark money funding. 

That would explain things fairly tidily.  Can't see a reasonable alternative explanation.

No doubt, the Congressmen will waffle with the wind.  After all, they did not support Trump during the 2016 primary season, and only support him begrudgingly in November.  Remember, Trump succeeded with minimal party support in 2016.  His success or failure in 2020, will be a result of his actions between now and then.  He was not well liked then, and no one expected him to win.  I would not make any speculation about the electorate at this time.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 17, 2018, 08:35:55 PM
In here it takes a long time until hell freezes over, but in Soviet Russia a long-time freeze over hell takes it until...

No. Doesn't compute.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: FishOutofWater on March 17, 2018, 08:49:38 PM
FYI the cloud pattern caused by cold dry air flowing off the ice sheet over warm water is called "cloud streets". Cloud streets are a very common occurrence after cold air outbreaks over warm oceans and seas.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Tor Bejnar on March 17, 2018, 09:12:40 PM
You gather correctly, Dharma Rupa.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: johnm33 on March 17, 2018, 11:26:19 PM
FYI the cloud pattern caused by cold dry air flowing off the ice sheet over warm water is called "cloud streets". Cloud streets are a very common occurrence after cold air outbreaks over warm oceans and seas.

Now I know what they're called thanks, and that's [cold/dry airstream] a necessary condition, not a variable, and not of itself sufficient, as far as I can tell.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Dharma Rupa on March 18, 2018, 01:12:01 AM
You gather correctly, Dharma Rupa.
http://www.sparknotes.com/poetry/inferno/section13/
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 18, 2018, 08:05:07 AM
On topic, the secular variations of weather, satellite overpass times and the possible measurement variance introduced by the tides on satellites and ocean make it so that we need about 15 days to find out when the average maximum of exent, that is a poor measure compared to area or volume, is. Thus the arctic weather is the only thing people would need to talk of Arctic ice and snow this time of the year, on the stall season. This of course requires an artificial definition. I would have to check the record to estimate a definition for this, but what I recall, a rather good definition for the beginning of the melt season defined solely by the values of extent could be f.e., to be vague enough, a seven day period of descending values of 5-day averages. This means at least 10-days may pass from the true beginning of the melt season until the beginning of melt season may be declared. This really awkward proposal of a formal definition for the end of the stall is of course bad since area and volune are not considered at all. Adoting this, or any other definition, would, in practise, mean that there should be a 'stall season'-thread that would in effect be a place for those discussions that are not about weather. At the same time though, the 'freezing season'- and the 'melt season'-threads should be open for all we know, a stall is a stall, and there's no knowing if an alien vessel blocks the sunlight reaching earth at the presumed end of the stall season.

I propose no changes on the system only Neven knows when the melting season-thread, which some people seem eager to open by themselves, actually opens. In fact, i think the above proposal of stall season might confuse people,  I mean, we in Finland pretty instinctively know when the winter is ending, or at least believe so, despite the occasional -10°C nights that still ensure the ice to be strong enough in the morning but not in afternoon, but this might not be case for those living in warmer climates. They might start to argue about the definition. Granted, arguments may occasionally be fun, but i thinks it's silly to suppose some benevolent alien race comes to our rescue.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Tor Bejnar on March 18, 2018, 09:08:52 AM
Now I know that the deepest pit of Hell (according to Dante) is a mite chilly.  Thanks, DR. 

Interesting condition: traitors to their benefactors.  A Dante discussion (argument!) could take place in the Russiagate thread!

...
http://www.sparknotes.com/poetry/inferno/section13/
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Dharma Rupa on March 18, 2018, 01:42:01 PM
Now I know that the deepest pit of Hell (according to Dante) is a mite chilly.  Thanks, DR. 

Interesting condition: traitors to their benefactors.  A Dante discussion (argument!) could take place in the Russiagate thread!

...
http://www.sparknotes.com/poetry/inferno/section13/

Not interested in an argument over it, but I read Dante as a kid and don't remember having heard "When Hell freezes over" until years later -- so the phrase always seemed a bit odd to me.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on March 18, 2018, 02:23:15 PM
Now I know that the deepest pit of Hell (according to Dante) is a mite chilly.  Thanks, DR. 

Interesting condition: traitors to their benefactors.  A Dante discussion (argument!) could take place in the Russiagate thread!

...
http://www.sparknotes.com/poetry/inferno/section13/


Not interested in an argument over it, but I read Dante as a kid and don't remember having heard "When Hell freezes over" until years later -- so the phrase always seemed a bit odd to me.

You actually read Dante as a kid? I thought people (like me) only pretended to have read him.

Anyway, origin is apparently USA late 19th Century, i.e. at least 550 years after Dante wrote The Divine Comedy

Quote

WHEN HELL FREEZES OVER

Origin: Late 19th Century, American English - This expression belongs to a small category of “hell” idioms, all referring to Hell as a place which will remain hot throughout eternity. It is an absolute and works well with ironic remarks such as, “a snow ball’s chance in Hell” or “it’ll be a cold day in Hell.”  All of these simply mean NEVER.

Usage:  Informal, spoken general American and Canadian English. Used for ironic negative emphasis (stressing the opposite of what you mean).

Idiomatic Meaning:  Emphatically stating that something will never, ever happen.

So, as you must know, the saying is in direct contradiction to Dante's vision of the 9th Circle of Hell - to whit:-

Quote
Ninth Circle (Treachery)

The last Ninth Circle of Hell is divided into 4 Rounds according to the seriousness of the sin though all residents are frozen in an icy lake. Those who committed more severe sin are deeper within the ice. Each of the 4 Rounds is named after an individual who personifies the sin.
Thus Round 1 is named Caina after Cain who killed his brother Abel,
Round 2 is named Antenora after Anthenor of Troy who was Priam’s counselor during the Trojan War,
Round 3 is named Ptolomaea after Ptolemy (son of Abubus),
while Round 4 is named Judecca after Judas Iscariot, the apostle who betrayed Jesus with a kiss.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 18, 2018, 03:32:25 PM
On topic, the secular variations of weather, satellite overpass times and the possible measurement variance introduced by the tides on satellites and ocean make it so that we need about 15 days to find out when the average maximum of exent, that is a poor measure compared to area or volume, is. Thus the arctic weather is the only thing people would need to talk of Arctic ice and snow this time of the year, on the stall season. This of course requires an artificial definition. I would have to check the record to estimate a definition for this, but what I recall, a rather good definition for the beginning of the melt season defined solely by the values of extent could be f.e., to be vague enough, a seven day period of descending values of 5-day averages. This means at least 10-days may pass from the true beginning of the melt season until the beginning of melt season may be declared. This really awkward proposal of a formal definition for the end of the stall is of course bad since area and volune are not considered at all. Adoting this, or any other definition, would, in practise, mean that there should be a 'stall season'-thread that would in effect be a place for those discussions that are not about weather. At the same time though, the 'freezing season'- and the 'melt season'-threads should be open for all we know, a stall is a stall, and there's no knowing if an alien vessel blocks the sunlight reaching earth at the presumed end of the stall season.

I propose no changes on the system only Neven knows when the melting season-thread, which some people seem eager to open by themselves, actually opens. In fact, i think the above proposal of stall season might confuse people,  I mean, we in Finland pretty instinctively know when the winter is ending, or at least believe so, despite the occasional -10°C nights that still ensure the ice to be strong enough in the morning but not in afternoon, but this might not be case for those living in warmer climates. They might start to argue about the definition. Granted, arguments may occasionally be fun, but i thinks it's silly to suppose some benevolent alien race comes to our rescue.

This is bordering on meaningful and thus dangerously close to being off topic.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: wili on March 18, 2018, 03:58:03 PM
 ;D ;D ;D

I'll attempt to save the thread from drifting into meaningfulness, by diverting back into the mythological realm.

Hel was originally a Norse goddess who lived in a house on the north side of a hill with all doors and windows always open and always facing north. Those ancient (and probably most modern) Scandinavians knew something about positioning a house for maximum (or in this case minimum) solar warming benefit!

https://norse-mythology.org/gods-and-creatures/giants/hel/
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Dharma Rupa on March 18, 2018, 04:06:17 PM
You actually read Dante as a kid? I thought people (like me) only pretended to have read him.

Not sure if I even started Paradise.  Probably bogged down in Purgatorio. I read a lot as a kid -- mostly, but not exclusively, SciFi.  We used books instead of insulation in the house.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Iceismylife on March 18, 2018, 11:05:35 PM
...
Hel was originally a Norse goddess who lived in a house on the north side of a hill with all doors and windows always open and always facing north.
...
That would make one hell of a date.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Brigantine on March 20, 2018, 08:16:59 PM
Happy Equinox everyone!
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on March 20, 2018, 08:25:35 PM
You actually read Dante as a kid? I thought people (like me) only pretended to have read him.

Not sure if I even started Paradise.  Probably bogged down in Purgatorio. I read a lot as a kid -- mostly, but not exclusively, SciFi.  We used books instead of insulation in the house.

Books from my house as a kid:-

The Tarzan Books,
Hans Anderson and the Brothers Grimm,
The King James Bible (some super English in that one).

But there was the library. Failed a Geography exam because I read "The Grapes of Wrath" during lessons.

Sci_Fi - still convinced Hari Seldon is real. He cannot be dead. We need him.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Dharma Rupa on March 20, 2018, 10:04:22 PM
Sci_Fi - still convinced Hari Seldon is real. He cannot be dead. We need him.
The Mule ate him.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 21, 2018, 12:41:10 PM
Remembering Trantor, and wishing Elite Dangerous developers had the humour to insert also other SF-planets on their game.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Iceismylife on March 21, 2018, 07:25:52 PM
Happy Equinox everyone!
Sunrise for the north pole!!! 6 months to sunset. 
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Dharma Rupa on March 21, 2018, 10:25:34 PM
Happy Equinox everyone!
Sunrise for the north pole!!! 6 months to sunset.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8_0seoCoOw
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Ktb on March 26, 2018, 12:35:59 PM
The Slater Projection has stalled/died out for whatever reason. Appears to only have a lead of 30 days now rather than 50, no updates for ~20 days.

Anybody know what is going on there?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 26, 2018, 01:00:02 PM
Anybody know what is going on there?

This may be relevant?

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/09/in-memoriam-andrew-slater.html
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: oren on March 26, 2018, 01:12:56 PM
The Slater Projection has stalled/died out for whatever reason. Appears to only have a lead of 30 days now rather than 50, no updates for ~20 days.

Anybody know what is going on there?
Can't see what's wrong, seems fine.
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/ (http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Ktb on March 26, 2018, 04:03:21 PM
The Slater Projection has stalled/died out for whatever reason. Appears to only have a lead of 30 days now rather than 50, no updates for ~20 days.

Anybody know what is going on there?
Can't see what's wrong, seems fine.
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/ (http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/)

When I click your link Oren, I see the lead projection is currently at approx May 1st. Only ~35 days out.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on March 26, 2018, 04:13:53 PM
The Slater Projection has stalled/died out for whatever reason. Appears to only have a lead of 30 days now rather than 50, no updates for ~20 days.

Anybody know what is going on there?
Can't see what's wrong, seems fine.
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/ (http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/)

When I click your link Oren, I see the lead projection is currently at approx May 1st. Only ~35 days out.

I use windows 10 and google. Sometimes when opening a webpage, e.g environment canada snow, I see an outofdate graph. When I click "refresh" the up to date page appears. WHY? Not a clue.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: oren on March 26, 2018, 06:03:50 PM
The Slater Projection has stalled/died out for whatever reason. Appears to only have a lead of 30 days now rather than 50, no updates for ~20 days.

Anybody know what is going on there?
Can't see what's wrong, seems fine.
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/ (http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/)

When I click your link Oren, I see the lead projection is currently at approx May 1st. Only ~35 days out.
You are correct, missed that.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Dharma Rupa on March 26, 2018, 06:52:40 PM
The Slater Projection has stalled/died out for whatever reason. Appears to only have a lead of 30 days now rather than 50, no updates for ~20 days.

Anybody know what is going on there?
Can't see what's wrong, seems fine.
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/ (http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/)

When I click your link Oren, I see the lead projection is currently at approx May 1st. Only ~35 days out.

I use windows 10 and google. Sometimes when opening a webpage, e.g environment canada snow, I see an outofdate graph. When I click "refresh" the up to date page appears. WHY? Not a clue.
Timestamps and caching.  The refresh flushes the cache.  Why the web server doesn't always update the timestamp?...well...my guess would be some sort of internal cache.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Iceismylife on March 27, 2018, 01:35:21 AM
The Slater Projection has stalled/died out for whatever reason. Appears to only have a lead of 30 days now rather than 50, no updates for ~20 days.

Anybody know what is going on there?
Can't see what's wrong, seems fine.
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/ (http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/)

When I click your link Oren, I see the lead projection is currently at approx May 1st. Only ~35 days out.
You are correct, missed that.
It may need some maintaining that he is unable to do as he is late.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Hautbois on April 08, 2018, 11:02:12 PM
Any quick tips on how to scale graphs so they don't look too big and a bit blurry once posted?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: oren on April 08, 2018, 11:28:04 PM
Any quick tips on how to scale graphs so they don't look too big and a bit blurry once posted?
Not sure if this is the right thread, but anyway: remember the forum limit of 700-pixel width. 600 even better. I scale my graphs in Excel, then I paste them to MS-Paint, and make sure they fit within the limits. If they don't, I rescale at the source and try again. Hope this helps.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Iceismylife on April 12, 2018, 09:26:26 PM
I think it's pretty clear that Wadhams shouldn't be taken seriously anymore.  He's promoting (https://web.archive.org/web/20140719032122/http://www.spiritoday.com/cambridge-professor-peter-wadhams-on-matters-of-life-and-death-and-higher-consciousness) pseudo-scientific nonsense about ghosts, mediumship and paranormality as well as various conspiracy theories.  He seriously believes that he has precognitive dreams in which he can foresee future events.  That is probably the reason for the unscientific predictions that he has been making in recent years (e.g. here (https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2015/june)), which are an easy target for climate deniers who use extremists like Wadhams to ridiculize the entire climate science community.
The conversation that this comment sparked and this comment mint belong here.

Having said that.

Music isn't good science. Apply the scientific method to the generation of new music and you get crap.  That doesn't mean that music isn't real.  When alchemy was tossed in favor of chemistry a lot of real stuff was tossed with some stuff that wasn't real.

Faith healing. The placebo effect.  Feeling pain when the storms are coming. There is an aspect of weather that isn't in the models. A good faith healer should be able to affect the weather.  Applying the scientific method to weather manipulation by a faith healer won't get meaningful results. But take a look at California's water year. Did it get much wetter starting about the start of February?  Then did it get warmer and stay wet? A four S.D. event followed by an over 5 S.D. event in atmospheric angular momentum. You want an "act of god"  that would be it.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: litesong on April 12, 2018, 11:03:31 PM
If the Republicans don't realize they are suppose to serve this country, Trump will not exit the White House until hell freezes over.
Ah..... one step beyond eliminating term limits. Now, "don'T rump" only has to bluff God into allowing it to live a few thousand years. Maybe "don'T rump" can change its DNA to a Sequoia tree....more accurately, a Bristle Cone tree.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: johnm33 on April 12, 2018, 11:51:01 PM
I guess here's a good place for this one-off.
"A trio of satellites studying our planet's magnetic field have shown details of the steady swell of a magnetic field produced by the ocean's tides."
https://www.sciencealert.com/esa-swarm-satellite-map-ocean-tides-magnetic-field
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: bbr2314 on April 13, 2018, 12:52:35 AM
If the Republicans don't realize they are suppose to serve this country, Trump will not exit the White House until hell freezes over.
The Republicans are not supposed to serve this country. Neither are the Democrats. They are only supposed to serve the power-structure that they themselves have created. The divergence between government and people is inevitable when the purpose of the "liberal" state is to perpetuate its own existence regardless of the cost.

When you examine US politics through this lense it makes much more sense. Why don't they serve the people? Why don't the people care? Because it doesn't matter. The government is completely separate from the people, it has become an institution that perpetuates itself at the EXPENSE of the people.

This is less problematic in absolutism because there is no pretense. I.E., there is no illusory "freedom of speech," which is alleged to exist in liberalism but does not (anyone with actual $ is prevented from exercising their right either because their views are potentially unpopular and would undermine their $, or because they do not have channels to express their views. unless you own a media company, you do not have freedom of speech. And unless you own multiple media companies, your freedom of speech is still curtailed, as audience will abandon you if you do not parrot their own beliefs -- unless you control enough market share to force opinions/etc a la Murdoch). 

However, in "democracies" we see silly banter about how the government is supposedly based on the authority of the people and not those in control. And then this gives rise to the gaping disconnect between what a government in a democracy is "supposed" to be doing versus the actual on the ground happenings.

Republicans do not help the people because they are not supposed to. The Republicans help themselves. The Democrats are no different. In fact, they are the exact same, though they may pretend otherwise. The Democrats are equally in favor of continued unbridled consumerism -- in fact the band-aids of things like "emissions standards" which they supposedly favor only exist so that MORE automobiles can be created without the same amount of air pollution (regardless of the impact of their actual production).
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Pmt111500 on April 14, 2018, 09:44:51 AM
Reporting I saw the first butterfly of the season yesterday. I didn't see if it tried to induce any storms flapping by the south wall of the house. But if it did, it's of course too late to do anything about it. No reason to punish the bumblebees and honeybees for that. And too late to punish the individual specimen too, these things happen. Apologies to those possibly affected, but it was a fast and very surprising situation, so even if I had been prepared it's possible I wouldn't have had time to do anything about it. Pretty sure it didn't carry anything.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: be cause on April 14, 2018, 12:33:13 PM
not even a leaf on a tree here .. butterflies had better wait a while .. b.c.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Pmt111500 on April 14, 2018, 02:52:55 PM
not even a leaf on a tree here .. butterflies had better wait a while .. b.c.
Liver(kidney)worts and coltsfeet up on locations, no leaves on trees here either. Willows starting bloom
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Tor Bejnar on April 14, 2018, 05:11:58 PM
The only trees here (north Florida) that are leafless are some of the dead ones (many have Virginia creeper, poison ivy or grape vine leaves 'on' them) and the (vine-less) conifers (with needles).  Butterflies flap their wings here pretty much year-'round, and there is a Tokyo (http://www.stuif.com/lorenz.html?submit=Lorenz+Applet) in Tallahassee (the Roboto Tokyo Grill), so watch out, Texas!
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Ktb on April 18, 2018, 09:40:07 PM
Only ~2 weeks until we pass the Slater projection. Somebody at Colorado should give it some TLC
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: numerobis on April 20, 2018, 04:11:35 PM
The roads are generally dry in Iqaluit, and have been pretty much all month. The tundra is increasingly peering out. It's been generally sunny all month; the only cloudy period recently was Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. The river is starting to flow a bit more, so it's flowing above its frozen cap (not enough room underneath the ice for all the volume).

It's definitely spring!
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Alexander555 on April 20, 2018, 06:59:30 PM
https://e360.yale.edu/features/what-extremely-warm-winters-mean-for-the-future-of-the-arctic-serreze
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Alexander555 on April 25, 2018, 06:41:37 PM
https://www.nature.com/news/arctic-2-0-what-happens-after-all-the-ice-goes-1.21431
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: johnm33 on May 01, 2018, 02:26:40 PM
"due to underlying physics" (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2278.msg152357.html#msg152357) just to suggest a candidate. If the ice is too weak to suppress wave action then it will break up more and sooner, then it's surface area increases by orders of magnitude. Instead of a maelstrom of currents and counter currents suppressing tidal action tides will penetrate further and with them more, mainly, atlantic waters will penetrate deeper into the basins disturbing the deeper layers. It looks like this has established in Barents and there are hints of it, though there may be better explanations, over by Banks island/Amundsen gulf/Beaufort.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Dharma Rupa on May 01, 2018, 04:51:13 PM
https://e360.yale.edu/features/what-extremely-warm-winters-mean-for-the-future-of-the-arctic-serreze

I think he's wrong in his last sentence.  I think at the end of the century when you look down on the Arctic from above you will see a land of perpetual fog, summer -- and winter.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: DavidR on May 02, 2018, 02:47:30 AM
If the ice is too weak to suppress wave action then it will break up more and sooner, then it's surface area increases by orders of magnitude.
I think orders of magnitude is a bit of an exaggeration.  Sea Ice has dimensions roughly equivalent to those of a sheet of paper.  Tearing up a sheet of paper doesn't significantly increase the surface area. 

However your point that wave action and heat from the sea will  make ice formation more difficult appears to be valid.  The Hudson and Okhotsk remind us that under the right conditions sea ice can form at very low latitudes. Barents and Greenland remind us that the reverse is also true, with other conditions ice will not form at  high altitudes. I  sometimes wonder if the last remaining summer ice will be in the Canadian Archipelago.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: numerobis on May 02, 2018, 05:02:27 AM
https://e360.yale.edu/features/what-extremely-warm-winters-mean-for-the-future-of-the-arctic-serreze

I think he's wrong in his last sentence.  I think at the end of the century when you look down on the Arctic from above you will see a land of perpetual fog, summer -- and winter.

You don't see that on any other oceans.

The land will be foggy. Iqaluit is already switching to a marine climate in summer, which means much higher precipitation (starting from very little, it doesn't take much to get a big percentage increase). And more fog. And summer temperatures not really increasing locally.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: johnm33 on May 02, 2018, 10:51:13 AM
'orders of magnitude' the sheet of paper analogy doesn't really work, if the ice is .5-1m thick and in sheets several km2 then once that sheet shatters many of the remnants will flip to near vertical, i can't imagine that with paper but with ice it's almost inevitable. I think.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on May 02, 2018, 11:25:15 AM
'orders of magnitude' the sheet of paper analogy doesn't really work, if the ice is .5-1m thick and in sheets several km2 then once that sheet shatters many of the remnants will flip to near vertical, i can't imagine that with paper but with ice it's almost inevitable. I think.
Don't see how ice floes can flip to near vertical. Doesn't seem very likely.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Peter Ellis on May 02, 2018, 03:34:32 PM
'orders of magnitude' the sheet of paper analogy doesn't really work, if the ice is .5-1m thick and in sheets several km2 then once that sheet shatters many of the remnants will flip to near vertical, i can't imagine that with paper but with ice it's almost inevitable. I think.

what
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: johnm33 on May 02, 2018, 03:41:26 PM
(https://ak8.picdn.net/shutterstock/videos/16524418/thumb/1.jpg)
from https://www.shutterstock.com/video/clip-16524424-stock-footage-unique-extreme-underwater-shooting-scuba-dive-beneath-ice-at-geographic-north-pole-in-cold-waters.html?src=rel/9154706:1
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: jdallen on May 02, 2018, 04:39:31 PM
I agree that thin ice will fragment, but those fragments will not increase the net ice thickness unless force is applied through compression.  Absent that, unless either gravity changed or a surface dimension changed such that it is less than thickness, fragments are not going to flip.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Peter Ellis on May 02, 2018, 04:47:53 PM
I agree that thin ice will fragment, but those fragments will not increase the net ice thickness unless force is applied through compression.  Absent that, unless either gravity changed or a surface dimension changed such that it is less than thickness, fragments are not going to flip.

Don't be a fool. Life rafts, planks and similar flat objects are well known for floating edge-on.  It's also well known that when they do so, they cover more of the water's surface rather than less.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on May 02, 2018, 06:48:59 PM
I agree that thin ice will fragment, but those fragments will not increase the net ice thickness unless force is applied through compression.  Absent that, unless either gravity changed or a surface dimension changed such that it is less than thickness, fragments are not going to flip.

Don't be a fool. Life rafts, planks and similar flat objects are well known for floating edge-on.  It's also well known that when they do so, they cover more of the water's surface rather than less.

I like being a fool - so here goes.

Compaction creates pressure ridges where floes can be piled up and squashed and stuck together randomly. I guess they would be more difficult to melt than when spread out.

Icebergs roll when melting (mostly from below ?)  moves their centre of gravity too high or sideways.

I would guess that when a big sheet of 1 or 2 metre thick ice breaks up, even a 25 square metre floe would be very stable and unlikely to float narrow edge up.

Foolish or not, "That is My Theory and it Belongs to Me".
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 02, 2018, 06:51:54 PM


Foolish or not, "That is My Theory and it Belongs to Me".

You've been staking claim to a lot of "Theories that Belong to Me".  ;)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on May 02, 2018, 07:07:04 PM


Foolish or not, "That is My Theory and it Belongs to Me".

You've been staking claim to a lot of "Theories that Belong to Me".  ;)
Because there are so many, one of them might be correct, at which point I will tell everyone what an immensely  clever person I am, conveniently ignoring all the others that turn out to be - er, crap.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Gray-Wolf on May 02, 2018, 07:21:52 PM

Don't be a fool. Life rafts, planks and similar flat objects are well known for floating edge-on.  It's also well known that when they do so, they cover more of the water's surface rather than less.

i think when the prof Barber trip that gave us the 'rotten ice' naming he laos witnessed a swell destroy a multi km floe in 15 mins and all of that ice 'lay down' cover far more ocean than it did as the original floe?

I see the final numbers of 08' and 09' contaminated with this 'collapse and spread' of older, multimetre thick floes?

Our denier friends were busy claiming 'recovery' , after the low of 07', in 08'/09' but the reality was the continued collapse of the paleocryistic ice cover which then went in the volume plunge of 2010.

I think the only way we see thicker ice from breakup is the over slabbing of floes when they run into one another?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Ktb on May 02, 2018, 08:03:41 PM
Officially about 1 week past the Slater Projection. Does anybody know who at Colorado to contact to attempt to rectify this?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: jdallen on May 02, 2018, 08:14:21 PM
I agree that thin ice will fragment, but those fragments will not increase the net ice thickness unless force is applied through compression.  Absent that, unless either gravity changed or a surface dimension changed such that it is less than thickness, fragments are not going to flip.

Don't be a fool. Life rafts, planks and similar flat objects are well known for floating edge-on.  It's also well known that when they do so, they cover more of the water's surface rather than less.
You phrase it differently, but that actually is what I was getting at, if somewhat clumsily.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: John_The_Elder on May 02, 2018, 09:56:58 PM
I agree that thin ice will fragment, but those fragments will not increase the net ice thickness unless force is applied through compression.  Absent that, unless either gravity changed or a surface dimension changed such that it is less than thickness, fragments are not going to flip.

Don't be a fool. Life rafts, planks and similar flat objects are well known for floating edge-on.  It's also well known that when they do so, they cover more of the water's surface rather than less.
"The sad, sorry, terrible thing about sarcasm. It's really funny."

Brandon Sanderson
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Dharma Rupa on May 02, 2018, 10:36:47 PM
I agree that thin ice will fragment, but those fragments will not increase the net ice thickness unless force is applied through compression.  Absent that, unless either gravity changed or a surface dimension changed such that it is less than thickness, fragments are not going to flip.

Bergy bits like to flip, so I'd like to hear him out...though at this point I'm not seeing anything meaningful about it.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Alexander555 on May 03, 2018, 08:07:50 PM
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=O8oMpbiDXhQ
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: johnm33 on May 07, 2018, 12:16:58 PM
'underlying physics' As the ice moves away from the pole it gets left behind by the rotation of the planet, it moves west or if you will clockwise. It doesn't all rotate together so leads open, the closer these are to the center of the ice desert these are the dryer the air and the faster and more solid the ice that forms in any particular lead will be, I suspect the -11c rule doesn't apply here. So the ice sheet expands from it's center, leads open ice forms, gets crushed until the thickness and density vary, for our purposes, infinitely. As the ice rotates it gets 'softened' up passing over the Laptev end of the Eurasian basin then continues to rotate to the area between, but north of, Svalbard and Franz Joseph where the warm Atlantic waters, which flow ccw, have cleared ice from Barents allowing waves to first break up then smash and melt the ice halting the flow of ice through Fram, but also curtailing the rotation of ice into the gap between Greenland and the pole. This has been more or less consistent for the period Oren referred to, towards the end of the melt season, but last year was more extreme.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=119.0;attach=100451;image)
Without that recycling of older ice the whole dynamic is changing. I think.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on May 09, 2018, 03:18:10 PM
 A CAUTIONARY TALE ? (Time to increase the meaningless chatter content in this thread)

What do you want the Arctic Sea Ice to do? Recover?  Reduce? Using JAXA data and telling Excel to fit an X3 trendline to the data, you can have either.

The graphs below have the same data - the only difference is the number of days in the time series.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Daniel B. on May 09, 2018, 04:33:36 PM
Very nice.  That will make everyone happy.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: oren on May 09, 2018, 04:45:16 PM
I highly dislike polynomial fit, unless there is a sound physical reason why it should be appropriate. At most, if an acceleration trend is suspected, a second-order polynomial fit should be used
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on May 09, 2018, 05:31:22 PM
I highly dislike polynomial fit, unless there is a sound physical reason why it should be appropriate. At most, if an acceleration trend is suspected, a second-order polynomial fit should be used
Hence the title "A Cautionary Tale".
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 09, 2018, 06:02:34 PM
Ðö þing hiö wuld bi ðö miiningless chætter, nou? Ái strongli sagzest wi muuv bæk tu gaads ænd gaaddesses. Þænk jüu.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Archimid on May 09, 2018, 07:10:33 PM
I like the exponential fit because it helps to visualize the changepoints in the data. However, they have no predictive capacity unless the system is fully understood.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Okono on May 10, 2018, 10:11:32 AM
At least everyone is staying perfectly on-topic, for once.  I doubt this thread has needed half the moderation of, say, the extent thread.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 10, 2018, 03:50:55 PM
A CAUTIONARY TALE ? (Time to increase the meaningless chatter content in this thread)


pagh vIbuSlaw' 'e' vI'angnIS yIjatlh qab
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Gray-Wolf on May 12, 2018, 01:08:14 PM
So , if you are like me then  finding out that the 'perfect melt storm' synoptic was a thing that returns to the basin every 10 to 20 years will have set a worry cycle each start of melt season " is this a repeat of the 'perfect melt storm'?"?

This year ( 11th since 07's mega melt year) is both within the return period but also inside the low solar period that saw the last 3 record breaking melt years of 07',2010 and 2012 ( 2010 was just a volume record).

Up to now I think we are still on track to see a record breaking melt year?  but my concern about the return of the perfect melt storm is not just the prospect of another record breaking melt season but the fear we could see us go 'Blue Ocean'
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: DrTskoul on May 12, 2018, 04:38:00 PM
A CAUTIONARY TALE ? (Time to increase the meaningless chatter content in this thread)


pagh vIbuSlaw' 'e' vI'angnIS yIjatlh qab

Klingon ??
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on May 12, 2018, 04:53:08 PM
A CAUTIONARY TALE ? (Time to increase the meaningless chatter content in this thread)


pagh vIbuSlaw' 'e' vI'angnIS yIjatlh qab

Klingon ??
A Trump tweet while OD'd on coca-cola and beautiful chocolate cake ?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 12, 2018, 05:25:43 PM
A CAUTIONARY TALE ? (Time to increase the meaningless chatter content in this thread)


pagh vIbuSlaw' 'e' vI'angnIS yIjatlh qab

Klingon ??

Yes.

Klingon culture looks down on useless talk, preferring to be direct and blunt thus I said...

 "Idle talk is bad"

There is something lost in translation as the actual translation is...

"I must be idle, or speak to your face"
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 12, 2018, 05:31:58 PM
As goes this melting season...

tet chuch je nom
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Dharma Rupa on May 12, 2018, 09:32:39 PM
Thankfully, I was never into conlang.  Sadly, my son is.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 12, 2018, 11:32:25 PM
Þænx Sheöd Hjumæniti fo bringing mach niidid riliif tu þis þred. Klingon iz wan of ðö bettö weiz tu distrækt piipl. Long Lív the Klingoniis Empaiö!
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Gray-Wolf on May 13, 2018, 12:54:46 AM
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/69/Qapla%27.svg/1200px-Qapla%27.svg.png)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: HapHazard on May 13, 2018, 06:56:39 AM
Zͪ̈́ͪ͂̓ͤ̓̿̓͂͂̍̐̎̚҉̧͏͔̙̼̦̝͖͈͓̙̥͖͔͙͙͟a̦̙͚̦͉̳̹̰̰̠̟̤̩̙ͦͪ̈̐͘͟ͅl̸͑̈͌ͭͮ̎̿̆̏̂͑̚͞͏̙̹͎̺́́ḡ̷̡̜̻̟̬̤̙̳͖̪͉͔̮̮̬͕͖̰͈̉̃̉̾̊͛ͣ̋̓̓̒ͬ̑̎ͣ̀̎o͊̆̅̾͗̐ͣͭ̽ͩ ̸̵̬̜͔̲͖̟̣̳͢͞,̴̡̛̹͕͖̠̺͇̞̘͎̝̱͆ͣͧ̃̏̊̐̏̉̎ͧ͜
̶̥̘̰̣̩̱̦͈̮͎̀ͩ͐̅̓͜͡͠M̪̱̩͍̆ͬ͛͂͑̆̓͋ͣ͑̔̂̋ͯ̀̚͟͡y̑̇̈́̍̎̾͛ ͈͕̦̗̞̜͕̟̞̂̄̿̌̆̀͡ ̜̣̮̦̪͉̖̞̘̲̳͍̦̼ͧͫ̉ͤ̊͑̿͛̊̑̏̄ͨ͋ͯͦ̏ͣ͂́͘͠ͅd̢̧͎̜̪̜͖̖̣̟̗̪̜̯̙̳̦͔̪͙ͫͧ̈́́̆ͤͧͦ͋͛̉͗͌ͯͭ͂̓ͅēͣͪ̈́ͣ̅̇̀ͨ͑ ̶̓ͦͯ҉͇̦̫̣ͅaͨ͆̍ͤͣ̊̈͑ͬ̀̅̾ͩͤ̓҉͍̣̗̥̪̀͡͡r̙͉͓̞͓̙̲̺̥̘̙͖̠̻̞̘͐̐͊̍ͨ͋͗̿͡ ̼ë̛̛́̋ͦ̀̈́҉̭̺̗͚͕̯͚̭͚̙̠̟̝̖̕s̷̸̰͔̲͇̺̠͇͕̣͈̫͖̈͌̊ͭ͆͗̒t̴̩͕̝͎̾́̈́ͫ̍ͪ̌̀̀ ̧͉̪̠͉̹̠͚̖̖̞̼ͫ̄̾͗ͨ̑͊͊̊͛̀ͨ̉͛ͤ͝Zͫ͑ͯ͐̈́̏͛͗̏̆ͮ̍̑҉͚̭̺̞̦̘̥͍͇̻̬̹a͂̋̒͊̋ͧͯ̒̽̊͒͐̃̊̈́̂ͫ́̚҉͕ͅ ͎̟̹͎̹̞̖̪̮̪̘̘̺ͅḽ͙͖̫͕̝͍̝̮̬̟͓̼͓͑̒̽̀ͤ͒̀̓̇̋̌͑ͯ̒͒ͥ̚͢͢͢͠ ̬͙̖͙g͒͐̓̈́͑͂̐̇͆ͯ̆̾͏̸̶̨̧̗̗̥̳o̶̡͐̆̄ͮ̓̉̒̋͛̃̂̒ͭͥͤͫ̀҉̗̬͝ ̦̗̪͇̣̦̞̬ͅͅͅ
̓̆̊͗̾̐͒̓̓̿̚҉͚̲͔͍̩̝̙̝͙̞̤̲̕͘͟I̐ͧ̿͗̂̇͊̄ͤͩ̆̄ͭͭ̒̈ͮ̋̅́͜͜ ̭̦̹̩͕̼̟̻̹̠̫͢ͅ ̧̜̺̞͖͓̮̩̆̉̇̋̈̾ͥ͆́̀͘͡wͬͤ̓͌̿̄ͪ̉ͯ͛̍ͪ̈́͏̰̫̝̠̺̖̮͇̙̫͍̤̳͘ͅ ̳͍ส็็็็็็็็็็็็็็็ï̧̛̞̥̗̝̻͎̼̱̳̣̩̱̭̈̈́͂̓̏͊̍̀̐ͯ̌͢͠ͅḻ̸̴̹̝̘̼̫̞̮̘̦̻̞̙̪̊ͥ̑͊̃́̈̂ͩ͋̔̄̀ͨ̈́̆͜ͅļ͔͙͎̫̙ͬ̃̃̈́́͜͞͠ ̫͔͈̜̹̻̹͎̻ ̨̻͕͙̺͍̭̖̘̞̫͓̮͍̪͒͐͑̍̑ͣ̇́̓̎̊̑̈̐̍̄͝f̴̛͓͇͌̈̽͗̂̏́ͨ̋ͯ́́͡ ̯͍̼̤r̨ͣͫ̄̿͛͑̎̍̃ͧ̀͂ͮ̄ͫ҉҉̴̵̭͍̩̰̘̣̝͎̙̼̼̭͖e̋̄̾ͬͫ̇͗ͩ́͊͢ ͏̫͖͓̭̘̱̖͔͝e̸̢̛̬̭̗̖̅ͨͫ͛̈́̓͒̒̎̀̒ͬͥ̈́̈̓͂̒̓͜ ̃ͣ̀̈́̏̄͋̉ͩ͋҉̧̣̳̳̰̭̠̮̥̜̤̰͕̟̲̪̲̯̕ͅỳ̴͆̋͋ͮ͆̈́̏͊ͬ̒̈́ͧ҉̡́͘ ̝͎̘̟͙̼͔̪̩̣̝̟͔̪ơ̧͔̭͍̖͔͓̓ͪͪͧ̓́͝͡u̘͔͍̣̜͓̬̥̻͇̥͈̯͚̲͕͛̾͗͗̃ͯ͑ͩ̀ͅ ̧̬̫̮̫̼̫̬̜̺̥̜͕̳̺̠̠̜͍͙́͑̏͑̿̍͝͞oͯͮ̿͑̉̽҉̩͓͕̯̻̰̟̙̜̫̭͙͔̭ ̻͚̖ņ̦͈̗̯̳͙̺͈̮͎̮̤͙͖̺́̎ͣ̿̾ͤ̀e̡̯͚̬͇͇̖͓̣̜̖͖̝ͪ̑̑̈́͑̓͛͊͝͡ ̸̜̖̦̺̐̇͆ͬͫ̈́̍͜͟͞͡d̶̋͑͂͆ͭ̓̎͆̓ͣͮͩ̋ͦ̈̚̚҉̨̢̦̻̗̜̲̗̱̣̫̳͔͘ à̸̵̸͈̟̰͖̫͍͔̣͍̟̮͕̗̖͚͈͙͋̈͐̎ͦ̈ͧ̋ͮ̓̑̃̚y͌̅͑̌̽̃ͥ͐͗ͨ̇ͣ̒ͣ ̢͇̜͚͙̎͗̀̚͞͞.̧̼̹͇̤̭̱͈̹͉̬͉̰̻̤͕̮̩̞̎ͦ͌̍ͮͤ͜͠ͅ
̈ͤ̈͋̽ͧ̓̉͏̨̨̯̖̘̹̙͇͙͝F̶̢̙̞̮̗̻̯͕̼̳̝̩͐͑̐̈̿̏́ͭͣ̇̋̔̽̀̚͘͞ ͇o͑̄̍͐̏͌͐ͣ͛͟҉͙̞͙͉̻̤̩̗͙͖͇̗̖̭͔r̼͔ͫ̋̾͒̇̋̂ͣ͛̄̈́̆ͭͯ̐ͬ͋́͞ ̲̠̳̲̯̟̰͔ͅ ̵̨ͥ̂ͫͭ̀̄͋ͤ̅͌̽ͭ̾̆̃͘͞҉̮̣̲̤̟͓͉̲̻̝I̛̩̝͉͕̜̩̫̹̼̼͋͌̔̓ ̘̦ ̡̫̼̠̰͈̰̠̠̘͓̯̱̪̝̗̹̆ͤ̒͐͌ͥ̉̽͗̃̚͡ȁ̡̼͙̻͙͎̳̟̲͇ͪͣ̓́͐ͥ̊͘͝ ̫͚̗͉̹̖̬͉̹m̧̢͉̩͚͕͒̂̆͑̈́͒ͤ̒͆̓̾͆ͨ̋̃̄͌̎̚ͅ ̓̌ͨ͌ͫ̃͑̆ͩͨͩ͂͗̈́̊ͣ̽͋̃͏̲̖̺͎̺̠̪̪̤͎tͩ͛́͊̈́͐̇ͭͨ͐͐̈҉͝҉̟̟̳̫ ̱̺h̶̨̗̬͖͓̼̭̦͔̣̪͕̣̖͙̗̪̾ͥ̑ͧ͌̅ͨͨ̈̑ͦ͆̅͗̍ͧ̉͜e͐̐̉̅̐̿̊̈́͠͏̡̲̹̱̹͙͚̮̳͉̙̺̫͙͙̝̗̠̀͠ͅ ͚̣̘͎͉̞̤̙̟͍̯̩̪̼̹̩̏ͫͩ̓̿̆ͮ͠͝ò̢ͣ͌̈́͋̿̽̿̓͂̉̇́͘҉̖̼͓͘ ̱͉n̢͒̉͊͋̊̓̊̆ͫͮͥ͏͈̤̤͈̘̙͔̫̟͚̲ę̵̛͙̜̿͊ͨͦ̋ͨ͑̋͆ͭ̎̀̚̚͝͝ ͓̜̹̥ ̴̢͉͙̻͖͖̠̟̪̫̳͈̅̿̋̋̾ͤ̉̈̓̊͋̽ͭ͌ͧ̾̓̀͞t͊ͩ̑ͮͩͯ͛ͣ͑̄ͪͥ̄̍̎̍ͩ ̶̢̛̣͍̝̳͚̯͋̄́͘ǫ̯̜̺̭̦̫̺̜̖̗͓͒̆̒̆́͢͢͞ ̸̛̈̓̇̅ͥ͒̍̊̇̒̏ͣͣ̀ͭ͘҉̧̮̤̝͎ͅw̸̶̨̛̜͈̣̻̯͖̫̜͓ͪͤ̎̃̋̈̒̀̃̈̚ ̰̯̟h͆ͮ̈ͫ̍͑̅ͮ̈ͧͥ͗̉ͬ͒̄̎ͪ͒͠͞͏̪̦͚̼͚̘i̷͕̘͍̖̺̫ͪ̇͑̀͆̈̿́̃ͪ ͈̥̗̭̝̜͕ͅş̵̗̳͕̻͈͕̗̻̣͍̼̇́̄͐̎̃ͩ̈ͥ͌͗̏̂́͌ͨ̄̚̚͟pͥ̈́̄͋̄͛̂ ̷̸̧̧̺̟̙̟̗̦̫̮̟̜̘͈̩ͣ͛̈̊̅͆͆͋̔̄̕e̺̼ͦͨ͒ͬ͆̊̽̈́͑̉ͬ͗ͨͩ͊̐ͤ͟͢ ̩̫̥̹̘̜̜̫r̴͉̩͚̞̦͕͎̤̻̝̭ͪ̾̉̌̅ͮ͌ͧ̉̌̓̓̌̎͒̕
̛͙̤͍͓͍̱͙͉̣͔̩͍̩̞̤̦͚̥̱̆͂ͪ͛̓̐ͫ̓ͨ̔͋ͪ̎̉͆̒̾̚͟͢T͒̉͛̍ͬͨͣͥ͐ ̡̅́͞͏̘̩̹͚͈̙̻͚̣͚͎̪̱ͅh̵̿̽͌̐͟͏̰̦̣͇̲̫͈͡ͅe̪̾͒̏̏̇̾ͯ̄ͧ͗́͢ ͍̘̲̱̪͙͉͙̥̩̭̥̱͇̩̮̠ ̸̅ͣ̊̿ͬ͌̐ͩͣ͑ͭͧ̔͟͏̵̨̳͙͓̫̩̫̲̬t̡̛̘̜͓͕̩ͩ͊͊̿̒ͣͩͥͥ́͘͟rͪͯͣ ̋ͮͣͨ͛̉̃̏͡͞҉̠̮̯͈͖̪̹̬͕͇͖̟̤͙̳u̶̡ͣ̓̓ͬ̀͌̃ͣͯͭ̂̐̇͊ͭ̾ͨ̀̚͟͏ ̖͕̘̼̞̥̦̜͇͕̲͍̟e̷̛͕͎̤̫̦̅̌̍̇̈͢͟͞ ̶̨̜̥̪̲͈̼̜̺̗̺̖͔̙̗̌̓͋͒̋ͧ̀̇͐̔̆ͥ̍͐ͭ͂̑̍͘͝͡ͅn̨̓ͨ͌̆̊̋ͧ̅̆͡ ̶̗̟̝̬̱̘̙͉̤̬aͥͪ͊͑̽ͧ͂̃̽̌̆̀ͩ̏̿̍͒̽̂͞͏̘̦̼̱m̑͂̂͛ͯ̾̋̔̋̆͑̾ ̍ͩ̚͏̮͇͇͙̖͈̙̯̼̩̳͔͖͓̯͉̕ȩ̬̭͕̳̤̪ͪ͒̌̅͊̊́͜͞ ̪̼̯͔̯͚̘̙͖̥̼̹̱̉͗̔ͭͤͭͫ̇ͭ̕̕͠o̷͔̥̤͇̙͖ͦ̽̄͆͒ͣ͂̉͒̿ͭ͊f͐̋̓ͪ̓́ͬ̽̿͊̈́̊̓ͪ͊̃͆̚͜҉̸͙̼͖̼̻̠͙̦ ͍͍̻̦ ̴̧̠͔͔̥̥̰͎̜̓͗͊͆ͨͧ̀̌ͣ͊͂̓͑ͅC̨̡̧̼͉̺̣̭̦̠͑̀̆ͮ̆̓͛ͨ̿ͯ͂̽́ͅḩ̷͕̹̣͕̝̩͍͕̫̙̲̳ͪ͛̋ͥ͊̉̚̚̕͡ ̝̗̹͈a̸̵̶̺͙̘̟̥̹̟͇̪̒͐̄̑̈́̃͟͞o̵̡͊ͫ̓̀̍̆̅ͧ̈́̿͌҉̰̩͓̙͉̫͉̘̺ͅ ̠̥͕̠̻̬s̪̯͇͉͎̯̯͑͒́̎͑͑̈́̌ͦ̀̓̚̕͘͟.̗̦̱ͩͦ́̈́ͪͪ̿ͥ̎͢


Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Gray-Wolf on May 15, 2018, 03:20:59 PM
Sooooooo, how many of us will not be coping well by the end of this melt season if we continue to see what we currently are seeing across the basin?

What I'm saying is will a number of us suffer from reactive depression from seeing the ice plummet to a new swathe of record lows ( or worse ,a B.O.E.)?

I'm beginning to think that I , for one, will not cope well in seeing my years of warnings about what lies ahead made flesh as I know what must then follow for the circulation of the Northern Hemisphere over Autumn/Winter.

Each melt season, since 07', has been roughly similar for me with concerns over what might pass that year. By August , since 2012, those fears have eased as it became apparent we had , again, dodged the bullet.

I believe this year is starting differently.

I don't know if I have freaked myself out with a link between low solar and high loss years or whether being in the return period for the perfect melt storm has set me off but my thinking has again turned to ''what if it's this year'' and nothing ,so far, has calmed that thinking.

So c'mon folks, what is your trick for not going nuts over melt season?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 15, 2018, 03:29:25 PM

So c'mon folks, what is your trick for not going nuts over melt season?

A Buddhist mindset.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on May 15, 2018, 06:45:07 PM

So c'mon folks, what is your trick for not going nuts over melt season?

A Buddhist mindset.
a) The melting season so far is twixt 2017 and 2016,
b) the chance of a blue ocean event this year is very small,
c) the chance of a second lowest is very real,

d) The Arctic Ice is melting. We know that. the only question is the rate of change,
    The ice sheets are melting. We know that. the only question is how fast.
     Sea level rise will rise.   The only question is the rate of change.
     Global temperatures are rising. The only question is the rate of change and for how long
     Life will become tougher for most life forms.  We know that. the only question is how bad will it be.

e) Those who presume to govern us are incapable of grasping the nettle.  We know that. the only question is how inadequate will they be.

f) Some of us did our duty and like Cassandra, told them.

g) It is still necessary to continue to bear witness to humanity of what is being done and the consequences of what is being done.

One has to accept our individual limitations, and at least do our best to make sure our nearest and dearest understand the nature of things to come and encourage them to have the tools to survive.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Gray-Wolf on May 15, 2018, 07:21:14 PM
Thanks Gerontocrat!, I wish I had as strong a belief in the B.O.E. being only a 'small' chance as I have it that any return to the 'perfect melt storm synoptic' would have us sailing very close to such a thing and so, until we fall off any trajectory toward a repeat, I will fret!

I get the feeling that the C.A.B. has been doing far worse than the numbers tell us by melt season's end due to the nature of the way we 'capture' extent/area numbers?

There is nothing we can do about this discrepancy , apart from ask NSIDC etc to help, if we want to keep on measuring apples against apples but as open water increases in the C.A.B., at season's end, we will keep on believing the basin is holding its own whilst the reality is somewhat different?

I just hope that the agencies employing the 15% and 30% cut off system are working on a replacement as we could find ourselves still seeing 100% ice being recorded when the reality is only 16% cover is present?

Why does this matter? Well the old " when the end comes it'll occur pretty fast" covers that? There must come a point where the energy in the ocean is enough to melt the runt of the ice in the water ( no matter the weather) so if we are fooling ourselves that there is more ice than is present then we will not see it coming?

If we think we are headed for a record low of sub 3 million ( what the numbers are telling us) but the ice in the water is only 40% of that figure then we may well have a volume that is less than the melt momentums 'melt out' potential for the basin that year?

Again , this year, we will probably see ice beyond 80N recorded mainly as contiguous ice when we will be looking at sat images showing a very different reality? Pretty soon the ice will start to fall the other side of the 15% cut off and numbers will tumble ( even though we still see ice..... but that will be another issue for another day as deniers jump all over the discrepancy....)

I worry that folk over reliant on the numbers, and not on personally 'looking' at the ice condition, could be in for a shock as ice that is measured, but not there, drops below the cut off and ice cover numbers drop like a stone in the " it will come fast" end of a melt season carrying high momentum for melt into those last weeks of melt season?

I guess I've answered my own question though and the only way to ease my fears is to keep on watching the ice until I know we are 'safe' for another year?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 15, 2018, 07:52:44 PM
While following individual melt and freeze seasons is fascinating, (especially all of the insights I get here) I don't allow any single season, no matter the end result, influence my mood. My mood is impacted by what is most certainly a long, slow, irreversible demise in our and all living things well being. This troubles me incessantly.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Dharma Rupa on May 15, 2018, 09:00:29 PM

So c'mon folks, what is your trick for not going nuts over melt season?

A Buddhist mindset.
a) The melting season so far is twixt 2017 and 2016,
b) the chance of a blue ocean event this year is very small,
c) the chance of a second lowest is very real,

d) The Arctic Ice is melting. We know that. the only question is the rate of change,
    The ice sheets are melting. We know that. the only question is how fast.
     Sea level rise will rise.   The only question is the rate of change.
     Global temperatures are rising. The only question is the rate of change and for how long
     Life will become tougher for most life forms.  We know that. the only question is how bad will it be.

e) Those who presume to govern us are incapable of grasping the nettle.  We know that. the only question is how inadequate will they be.

f) Some of us did our duty and like Cassandra, told them.

g) It is still necessary to continue to bear witness to humanity of what is being done and the consequences of what is being done.

One has to accept our individual limitations, and at least do our best to make sure our nearest and dearest understand the nature of things to come and encourage them to have the tools to survive.

I am reminded that the rate of change in distance is speed, the rate of change in speed is acceleration, and the rate of change in acceleration is jerk.

I think the important question is how much we are being jerked around.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: oren on May 15, 2018, 10:20:50 PM
G-W, make an imaginary 100$ bet for a B.O.E, and then rest assured that Murphy's Law will keep the ice safe for another year. Best way to avoid worries as we inch closer and closer to the brink. And when one year it finally happens, at least you were right! It's only stupid psychology but it works for me.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Martin Gisser on May 16, 2018, 12:19:53 AM
So c'mon folks, what is your trick for not going nuts over melt season?
1) Several days of naked gardening, in April, while still sweating like a pig. (We just had the hottest ever April here in Barvaria. My little juniper tree got a sunburn.)
2) Remembering when I went nuts over climate science etc. in the early days of the 21st century.
3) Cold blooded ridicule at anthropocentric omphaloskeptics. (I only spare my mom, who gets stomach cramps when I get realist with her.)
4) Reading about the Holocaust (incl. the Croatian Holocaust).
5) Studying Buddhist psychology.
...
Most importantly:
6) Keeping a detached cold blooded scientist perspective. We are privileged to witness a crucial turning point in the history of Life (not just the bloody hominins).

Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: josh-j on May 16, 2018, 09:02:57 AM
6) Keeping a detached cold blooded scientist perspective. We are privileged to witness a crucial turning point in the history of Life (not just the bloody hominins).

That does it for me. It may be very worrying but its also amazing and genuinely fascinating to see first hand.

Other things: bringing it up in conversation; trying to spread the message (and remembering that you never know how many people end up taking it to heart); energetically trying to align ones own lifestyle with what needs to be done by everybody - low carbon, etc.

No doubt you are not alone, GW.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 16, 2018, 05:24:45 PM
Pretty close to 85F here today, using Fahrenheit as this is the meaningless thread.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Martin Gisser on May 16, 2018, 05:59:58 PM
Pretty close to 85F here today, using Fahrenheit as this is the meaningless thread.
ROTFL...
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Adam Ash on May 17, 2018, 01:31:42 AM
:)  Nice! and I trust you are measuring ice lead widths in milliparsecs and field velocity in furlongs per fortnight too, following the dictum that all variables in technical papers shall be defined in the most inconvenient unit possible! 
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Alexander555 on May 19, 2018, 03:22:28 PM
https://robertscribbler.com/2018/05/15/global-sea-level-rise-accelerated-to-4-6-mm-per-year-after-2010/
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: slow wing on May 22, 2018, 05:47:52 AM
21 May. so we're one month before the summer solstice.

Maybe a good date to flag about when the amount of cloud cover in the Arctic Basin Proper has become really important?

I don't worry too much about the Arctic sea ice outside the central Basin because that is going to melt out anyway.

Roughly speaking, cloud cover insulates the ice from the sky. It's true you can have different types of cloud cover that might not do that well for the shorter wave insulation (direct sunlight coming down) or the longer wave thermal radiation coming up - but we won't make that distinction here.

In the Winter, cloud insulation traps the heat in from draining to the sky, so it works against the ice thickening. However, growth in ice thickness slows down anyway as the ice gets thicker and so itself better insulates heat from escaping from the water underneath to the sky above. So the eventual ice thickness at the end of the freezing season won't have been affected too much by how much cloud cover there has been in the winter.

In the (late) Spring, at the start of the melt season, it's more of a balance between cloud stopping the thermal radiation going up and the cloud stopping the increasing amounts of sunlight from reaching the ice.

But by now, that balance should be progressively tipping in favor of the latter. Less clouds will allow more sunlight down to heat up the ice. Also, as the snow & ice on top begins to melt and the sunlight can begin to shine on liquid water, the ice will just be beginning to become less reflective and instead absorb a greater fraction of the incident solar energy.

    So what I'm suggesting is it's starting to become important to watch, e.g. Worldview, to see the amount of cloud cover over the central Arctic Basin.

 Less clouds also tends to correlate with high pressure. So we can also watch the forecasts for more high pressure.

   Concerning other heat sources that can melt the ice - warm winds and water being carried into the Arctic - the Summer also heats up that air and water more, & it brings bigger heat engines to potentially blow it into the Arctic basin.


   So it's been interesting already, but I hereby proclaim that the really interesting part of the melt season officially begins today.  :P
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: johnm33 on May 23, 2018, 11:39:21 PM
Re ' underlying physics' https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2274.msg153218.html#msg153218
ATeam did this great animation which more or less illustrates what I was trying to say, I downloaded and slowed it down some if you do the same you'll see very little ice rotating back into the pack between the pole and Greenland, but when it does there always seems to be a concurrent flow through Nares.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2278.0;attach=101142
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Coffee Drinker on May 25, 2018, 05:11:32 AM
Apparently there is still good snow cover in Newfoundland and large parts of Quebec. Hard to imagine considering its end of May and their latitude (same as Paris for example).
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=47&run=18&time=0&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 25, 2018, 03:09:10 PM
We know that SWE is historically high for this region. I am not sure if this is true for extent.

The comment about this area being the same latitude as Paris is appropriately meaningless as it ignores entirely the climate of the planet.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Daniel B. on May 25, 2018, 03:58:02 PM
Grand Falls, Newfoundland received 30 cm of snow yesterday, with the possibility of more tonight. 
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on May 25, 2018, 04:27:49 PM
The comment about this area being the same latitude as Paris is appropriately meaningless as it ignores entirely the climate of the planet.

I'm not sure how a factual statement can be "meaningless", and "the climate of the planet" is exactly what the factual statement regarding latitude is highlighting, i.e. how the oceans can have vastly different effects on areas receiving the same amount of solar irradiation on a yearly basis. Which is of course extremely topical for our discussions on the future of sea ice.

So perhaps it should have been in another thread, e.g. "highly meaningful melting season chatter".
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 25, 2018, 04:56:27 PM
Grand Falls, Newfoundland received 30 cm of snow yesterday, with the possibility of more tonight.

I suspect this is unusual although not certain as I don't follow weather there. It could also very well be a new normal for this region as our climate changes.

(Now I've gone and done it and actually read one of your comments.)  :o
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on May 25, 2018, 05:13:58 PM
We know that SWE is historically high for this region. I am not sure if this is true for extent.

The attached image (part)  from https://www.ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current shows that the NE corner of Canada has both extent well above average (indicated by the red line) and above average depth. Parts of Eurasia are the same, both being the remains of a somewhat unique snowfall event over winter 2017-18.

Hudson Sea has been slow to melt, and even the St. Lawrence melt has stalled over the last couple of weeks, perhaps as a result of the persistent cold in that part of N. America.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Dharma Rupa on May 25, 2018, 05:31:22 PM
...Hudson Sea has been slow to melt, and even the St. Lawrence melt has stalled over the last couple of weeks, perhaps as a result of the persistent cold in that part of N. America.

I've been thinking of WACCy weather as the land just warming slower than the ocean, but it is true there will be more snowfall, so I guess it can be more unstable too.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Ktb on June 02, 2018, 03:47:47 PM
The Slater projection has been given the appropriate TLC and is functional once again. Currently predicting extent of 7.62 million km^2 on July 22
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on June 16, 2018, 08:39:49 AM
Anybody looking for a chilling summer read could do worse than checking out Dan Simmons' "The Terror" based on the Franklin expedition.

It's actually a very good book and (except for the occasional supernatural monster) feels very authentic.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: HapHazard on June 16, 2018, 09:01:07 PM
Anybody looking for a chilling summer read could do worse than checking out Dan Simmons' "The Terror" based on the Franklin expedition.

It's actually a very good book and (except for the occasional supernatural monster) feels very authentic.

The TV series is surprisingly excellent, as well. Great acting, and they really nailed the ambiance, too.

For those who don't know (although considering this forum, most here probably do), the title is a ship's name: HMS Terror, which was the 2nd ship (along with HMS Erebus) of the Franklin expedition, seeking the northwest passage in 1845... but never returned.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on July 25, 2018, 08:08:23 PM
I've been thinking. Bad idea.

Lots of stuff as usual about June cliffs, July Cliffs, August cliffs (no doubt to come) and so on.

But I am thinking is not the story "A Winters Tale". Looking at seas like the Bering and Barents, the biggest losses are in winter ice. So I've had a look at freezing seasons over the last decade or so from JAXA extent data.

It would seem that in the last few years freeze has dropped quite significantly. Here is the table that includes a reckless look forward to the 2019 maximum.

Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: RealityCheck on July 28, 2018, 08:00:40 AM

It would seem that in the last few years freeze has dropped quite significantly. Here is the table that includes a reckless look forward to the 2019 maximum.

Hi Gerontocrat. You assume 4.7m km2 minimum for 2018, if my basic maths are correct? Which is a fair starting point I reckon alright...
So I also assume this is another 'theory that belongs to me'...of yours, of course! If you're right, you could be called prophetic in 8 months time... :)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on July 28, 2018, 01:19:35 PM
I think you are spot on. The long term trend towards warmer winters and weaker freeze is setting the stage for a truly exciting melt season sometime in the next few years. And SIE is only part of the story as average thickness at maximum is shrinking as well.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on July 28, 2018, 01:33:03 PM
Hullo Reality and Shared. (We are on first name terms?)

Thanks for the comments. I am still looking at the methodology as I did the work very late after a long day.  I should have done the work using NSIDC extent and area data to go back to 1979.  I have also made a mirror image of the NSIDC daily extent and area spreadsheets with daily PIOMAS data. I wonder if the volume data will show a similar outcome.

But all that will have to wait a bit - maybe after July data comes out. Not enough hours in the day.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: RealityCheck on July 28, 2018, 03:03:21 PM
Thanks Gerontocrat
I am happy to go by RC...:)
RC
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on July 28, 2018, 06:28:47 PM
I'm good with SH.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: CalamityCountdown on July 28, 2018, 07:49:57 PM
It appears the Santa's North Pole workshop may be developing a serious tilt, as the ice seems be becoming a bit slushy at the North Pole. But, on a serious note, the change between the image Gerontocrat posted 2 days ago  (Reply #2352 on: July 26, 2018 on the 2018 Season Melting thread) and today's NSIDC Sea Ice Concentration map show a stunning degree of change around the North Pole hole and throughout much of the Arctic.

Compare to the Ice Concentration map from 2 days ago
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2278.msg164597.html#msg164597
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: uniquorn on August 09, 2018, 01:40:53 AM
Windy has a rather ominous forecast for next friday
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Ktb on August 09, 2018, 09:29:00 AM
I would just like to point out that the common misconception "sea ice melting will not raise sea level" is just so, a misconception.

The paper The melting of floating ice raises the ocean level by Peter D. Noerdlinger and Kay R. Brower, circa 2007. The paper was published in Geophysical Journal International.

The two key quotes: "It is shown that the melting of ice floating on the ocean will introduce a volume of water about 2.6 per cent greater than that of the originally displaced sea water." and "If all the extant sea ice and floating shelf ice melted, the global sea level would rise about 4 cm."

So while the complete melting of all arctic and antarctic sea ice would result in a negligible (compared to Greenland and Antarctica) 4cm rise in global sea level; we know that this could not take place as even with a BOE in the arctic, we would have another 18+million KM^2 in the antarctic.

https://academic.oup.com/gji/article/170/1/145/2019346 -- the full paper for those interested.

Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: oren on August 09, 2018, 10:42:20 AM
The two key quotes: "It is shown that the melting of ice floating on the ocean will introduce a volume of water about 2.6 per cent greater than that of the originally displaced sea water." and "If all the extant sea ice and floating shelf ice melted, the global sea level would rise about 4 cm."
So I just read this, I know basically nothing on the subject. But what I couldn't manage to verify is whether they took into account the small freshening of the ocean while the salinization of the meltwater takes place, and whether it might compensate for the claimed volume increase.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Dharma Rupa on August 09, 2018, 02:02:01 PM
Melting doesn't raise volume much because of displacement, but any water temperature above 4 degrees makes a difference.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 09, 2018, 02:24:33 PM
Melting doesn't raise volume much because of displacement, but any water temperature above 4 degrees makes a difference.

That graph had me confused - at first I thought, "hang on, ice begins to sink again before reaching -10 centigrades?"

But there is a discontinuity that is not very clearly marked, the vertical (y) axis should be broken and not continuous.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: harpy on August 09, 2018, 05:59:42 PM
Is there an updated sea ice concentration graph for August 9th?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Archimid on August 10, 2018, 03:34:37 AM
If that graph is correct, then I learned something new that I should have known. Is the sea level change due to the annual melt/freeze cycle measured anywhere?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Phil. on August 10, 2018, 05:06:50 AM
Melting doesn't raise volume much because of displacement, but any water temperature above 4 degrees makes a difference.

This is for freshwater not seawater which has maximum density at the freezing point, here's the data for seawater:

http://sam.ucsd.edu/sio210/gifimages/dens.gif
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Dharma Rupa on August 10, 2018, 02:03:47 PM
Melting doesn't raise volume much because of displacement, but any water temperature above 4 degrees makes a difference.

This is for freshwater not seawater which has maximum density at the freezing point, here's the data for seawater:

http://sam.ucsd.edu/sio210/gifimages/dens.gif

OK then, any water temperature above freezing makes a difference.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Dharma Rupa on August 10, 2018, 02:12:24 PM
If that graph is correct, then I learned something new that I should have known. Is the sea level change due to the annual melt/freeze cycle measured anywhere?

The change due to the cycle is probably too small to measure, but the change due to the change in ocean temperature has been the main cause of sea level rise.

https://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming/science-and-impacts/impacts/causes-of-sea-level-rise.html

Quote
Rising temperatures are warming ocean waters, which expand as the temperature increases. This thermal expansion was the main driver of global sea level rise for 75 - 100 years after the start of the Industrial Revolution, though its relative contribution has declined as the shrinking of land ice has accelerated.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 10, 2018, 06:39:08 PM
There was some 'discussion' about the effect smoke had on the Arctic, specifically, if smoky air was 'warmed' due to the source of the smoke (here and earlier (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2278.msg166677.html#msg166677)) with a recommendation to redirect here.  So, I did some internet searching.  Nothing about smoky air being warm, but there was this gem from ScienceDaily (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/01/180103101136.htm):
Quote
...
Highly sensitive clouds

The research team found that clouds in the Arctic were two to eight times more sensitive to air pollution than clouds at other latitudes. They don't know for sure why yet, but hypothesize it may have to do with the stillness of the Arctic air mass. Without the air turbulence seen at mid-latitudes, the Arctic air can be easily perturbed by airborne particulates.

One factor the clouds were not sensitive to, however, was smoke from forest fires. "It's not that forest fires don't have the potential," Garrett says, "it's just that the plumes from these fires didn't end up in the same place as clouds." Air pollution attributable to human activities outpaced the influence of forest fires on Arctic clouds by a factor of around 100:1.
But then I found this:
Smoke Plumes and Temperature Inversions (http://www.pmarshwx.com/blog/2011/01/08/smoke-plumes-and-temperature-inversions/)
Quote

...
In fact, it [dry smoky air] cools at around 10C over the first kilometer above the ground. This cooling rate is known as the dry adiabatic lapse rate. This is the rate of cooling expected if we were to lift any parcel of dry air vertically. Through the concepts of buoyancy and convective instability, any parcel that is warmer than ambient air will accelerate upward on it’s own, any parcel that is cooler than the ambient air will accelerate downward on it’s own, and any parcel the same temperature as the ambient air will continue to do whatever it is doing.

At around 800-millibars [in the studied example] the temperature stops cooling as we increase height. In fact, it remains the same or even warms slightly! This warming with height is known as a temperature inversion, or inversion for short. I’ve circled this temperature inversion below.

So what does this have to do with the smoke plume? Well, the smoke from the fire acts like a parcel of dry air. This means that for every one kilometer above the ground, the temperature of the smoke would be expected to cool 10C. (In reality the temperature of the smoke would most likely cool at a slightly faster rate due to processes such as turbulent mixing.) If we were to assume that the temperature of the smoke was approximately the same temperature as the ambient temperature, or slightly warmer, we would expect the smoke to accelerate upward. However, as the smoke accelerates upward it begins to cool, as we previously mentioned. It continues to rise because it is approximately the same temperature as the air surrounding it, so it will remain doing what it had been doing (which was rising).

Eventually the smoke will reach the height of the temperature inversion and become colder than the air surrounding it. At this point the smoke will begin to descend until it reaches an altitude where it is in equilibrium with the ambient air temperature, typically at or slightly below the height of the temperature inversion. At this point the smoke will begin to spread out horizontally instead of vertically, frequently being blow in a specific direction by the wind, as was the case yesterday evening.

So, by seeing smoke plumes spread horizontally, instead of vertically, one is actually visualizing the altitude of a temperature inversions.
...
My take from this:  smoke over the Arctic Ocean is not 'warm'.

In the long run, I've read of the concern that soot on ice will cause it to melt faster, helping to decimate MYI (and Greenland ice) which have more time to accumulate soot than does FYI.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 10, 2018, 06:48:43 PM
Thanks for this very erudite answer Tor!

As for particulates falling on the ice, I´ve noticed a few times over the years that the ice in the Berings and EES seas become striated in spring/early summer, with variously brown bands getting darker as you get nearer the ice edge. I've often wondered if this was soot from forest fires being exposed as the overlying snow cover melts, but I'm not at all sure that this is the case.

Found an example from June 10th 2016, Bering strait to the left.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: HapHazard on August 10, 2018, 06:49:14 PM
We cold smoke salmon here all the time.  :P
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 10, 2018, 09:52:49 PM
Looking around Sentinel Playground (atmospheric correction, gain: .4; gamma .8 ) (https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel-playground/?source=S2&lat=82.5937664881776&lng=-54.552268981933594&zoom=11&preset=1_NATURAL_COL0R&layers=B01,B02,B03&maxcc=52&gain=0.4&gamma=0.8&time=2015-01-01%7C2018-08-09&atmFilter=ATMCOR&showDates=true), I noticed two floes in the Lincoln Sea, about the same size, close to each other, but with very different appearance.  Both have what I understand are blue melt ponds, same scale (lower right corners), same date (August 9), but different texture: "A" seems to have quite consistent parallel lineatiosn (mostly near horizontal, but near vertical in lower portions of the image) and cracks that appear 'about to go'.  "B" has what appear to be several 'old' floes very well glued together.

I don't know enough to draw 'significant' conclusions.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Dharma Rupa on August 15, 2018, 09:28:53 PM
I can't say what I want to say over in the data thread so....

War is Peace
Freedom is Slavery
Ignorance is Strength
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Ranman99 on August 16, 2018, 09:41:21 AM
Reminds me that 2 + 2 = a slice of pie ;-)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: johnm33 on August 25, 2018, 10:50:10 PM
I was looking at uniquorns animation below, there's some sort of glitch around 2017:09:28, what could do that?
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2278.0;attach=107065)
couldn't get these electron flux graphs to open as images, but maybe?
ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/warehouse/2017/2017_plots/electron/20170921_electron.gif
ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/warehouse/2017/2017_plots/electron/20170923_electron.gif
ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/warehouse/2017/2017_plots/electron/20170925_electron.gif
ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/warehouse/2017/2017_plots/electron/20170928_electron.gif

Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Dharma Rupa on August 26, 2018, 12:35:59 AM
Bounce...

From the data thread...

That would be a fine analysis if you ignored the Battle of the Bulge on the Atlantic Front.

Battle of the Bulge ... I like it.

I was rather fond of the analogy, but unfortunately, I think the Nazi are going to win the war.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Pmt111500 on August 27, 2018, 06:09:47 PM
 8)  ::)  8)  went to a prog rock concert on weekend and didn't drink a drop, these things you do when you get older. Still couldn't make out the lyrics. The venue started to get crowded as there was a famous (in Finland) poprock band coming up so biked home the 4 miles on a cool tailwind evening breeze. Summers here can be nice, too.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 14, 2018, 05:57:39 PM
A little Time Section Plot I asked ESRL to make for me.

("You may use the images produced from this page in publications, but we ask that you acknowledge us in this manner: Image provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder Colorado from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/.")
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: CalamityCountdown on March 02, 2019, 07:11:27 PM
Since the Atlanticification of the Barents was a hot topic last season, and the early disappearance of sea ice in the Bering is the hot topic currently, seems like the logical progression to the next hot topic in the upcoming months is the size of the "pole hole"
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: jdallen on March 20, 2019, 10:45:22 PM
Figured this would be the best place to start a very-much-to-early speculative discussion of where the current melt season will end up.

As I've stated previously, I think its All About the Volume, so here goes my seed to the discussion.

Looking at the numbers for volume and shoving them into my "black box", I'm going to make some rash seat-of-the-pants predictions for the coming melt season.

1) We will reach an early max volume somewhere around April 15th, with an additional volume of around 500KM3 of ice added, for a total annual Max of approximately 22,500KM

2) We will have a pull back to trend in the melt season, losing approximately 18500KM3 of ice for an end of season total of about 4000KM3.

These are pure SWAGs based on eyeballing current open water at high altitude, eyeballing the behavior of melt seasons against historic ENSO conditions, heat being released at the start of the melt season by the current El Nino (as opposed to the La Nina that started 2018), along with recent writings of the upper ocean heat content anomaly closing in on 180 zettajoules.  (source data link)

http://data.nodc.noaa.gov/woa/DATA_ANALYSIS/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/DATA/basin/3month/ohc_levitus_climdash_seasonal.csv

I'm comfortable being totally off, but don't think I will be that much.

Not sure what this will mean for end of season extent and area, which I actually think are far more volatile, but I'd take even odds on bumping #2 to #3 this year.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Gray-Wolf on March 22, 2019, 12:46:00 PM
If we were not waiting on the eruption of the 'over 7,000 pingo like structures' in Yamal I'd be more content to have a pop at how the season will run but if we do find that the reserves of free CH4 ( currently capped by the ice of the permafrost ) have a pathway to the atmosphere (through the erupting hillocks and the strata disrupted) then a lot could very quickly change!

Depending on wind and temp inversions we could see a very potent lens of GHG's over the basin changing the dynamic of melt as air temps respond.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: oren on March 24, 2019, 10:04:02 PM
I strongly doubt this can have any effect on the melting season (although the long term effect could be different). These pingos don't erupt all at once, the emission is not significant enough, it will start over land and not over the ocean, and will spread around rather quickly, diluting any local effects.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Dharma Rupa on May 04, 2019, 02:01:05 PM
Rather than continue in a thread where it doesn't belong I'll post here.

I'm of the opinion that we are 150 years too late, and I'm just here for the show.  I always wonder if the climax will be this year.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: jdallen on May 04, 2019, 08:57:43 PM
Rather than continue in a thread where it doesn't belong I'll post here.

I'm of the opinion that we are 150 years too late, and I'm just here for the show.  I always wonder if the climax will be this year.
Merit to your opinion, not sure if it's provable one way or another.

Definitely evidence that the effects of human activity were being seen before Arhennius discovered to cause a 124 years ago.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Dharma Rupa on May 04, 2019, 10:46:48 PM
The Model Worshippers don't like me.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Dharma Rupa on June 02, 2019, 05:53:31 PM
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data

There's one thing that has been really tiresome to me lately, and that's meta-discussions, ie a discussion about the discussion. Gerontocrat can do what he likes here, as long as he posts the data. If there's anything anyone wants to take up with him, I'd like to ask them to copy the quote in question, paste it in another thread and comment on it there.

I have to totally agree with this.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Dharma Rupa on June 02, 2019, 10:39:13 PM
I just engaged in a simple act of protest against privilege and every single person who weighed in on the discussion defended that privilege.

It isn't privilege.  It's an earned right.  You post actual data every day for a few years and I'll gladly put down the next noobie that comes along messing up the thread.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 03, 2019, 06:46:33 AM
The only hope to slow down AGW is massive protest. We should all learn to embrace protest behavior and the struggle for equity.


I agree. Only, this is a forum, not the street.

If you want to have a positive impact, organize rallies, get people behind you in real life, even online it is possible on Twitter and Facebook.

Cluttering the data thread on this forum is not climate action and not even a protest.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on June 03, 2019, 07:46:11 AM
The only hope to slow down AGW is massive protest. We should all learn to embrace protest behavior and the struggle for equity.


I agree. Only, this is a forum, not the street.

If you want to have a positive impact, organize rallies, get people behind you in real life, even online it is possible on Twitter and Facebook.

Cluttering the data thread on this forum is not climate action and not even a protest.

Your logic escapes me as does the lecturing.

It remains to be seen whether my action will have been useful. Will the area data continued to be delivered with boilerplate downplaying of near term downside risk and routine condescending remarks directed at some of the  participants on the melting season thread?

Maybe, maybe not.

I made my point and Neven clarified the rules, which I am bound to follow if I want to continue to post here.
The area and extent thread is basically the fief of the bookeeper and that is settled.

If you're interested in sharing some details of your own experiences with successful  climate activism.  Do you approve of Extinction Rebellion which inconveniences people as it holds up traffic for hours, while complaining about a few dozen paragraphs of inconvenience in an online forum thread?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 03, 2019, 08:16:12 AM
Rich, i'm not telling you how to do your climate action.

I'm saying, this special thread is not the platform you will convince people of anything. It's a thread about data. It's a snapshot. It's a presentation of the facts on this day. Wonderfully presented by knowledgeable people. When people clutter this thread, it is getting less useful for everyone in the forum.

The logic is easy to understand: Everyone on this forum and their dog is convinced by now that climate change is happening and that it's a bad thing. Neven is solving the denier problem. No need to convince anyone here.

But if you want to talk about the ways to go from here, there are plenty of threads for that.

Nothing else is going on here! I don't hate you now, i don't think you are wrong with your opinions,  i'm not even saying you shouldn't oppose Gerontocrat views.

As Neven said, just copy the quote to another (fitting) thread, that's all.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: jdallen on June 05, 2019, 03:50:39 AM
/vent on/

What is it about having a slew of new people show up in the forums, absolutely intent on telling all of us who've been watching the ice intently for many years, exactly how we've gotten it wrong(tm), and need to follow their better direction?

Color me tired of people long on wind and short on science and data.

/vent off/
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: interstitial on June 05, 2019, 04:56:40 AM
I think last year? someone suggested we call newbies slushies because they always want to proclaim this year will be the worst for ice.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on June 05, 2019, 05:24:24 AM
/vent on/

What is it about having a slew of new people show up in the forums, absolutely intent on telling all of us who've been watching the ice intently for many years, exactly how we've gotten it wrong(tm), and need to follow their better direction?

Color me tired of people long on wind and short on science and data.

/vent off/
.

Just what is it that the "newbie" is objecting to?

It appears he is challenging the ability of ANYONE to predict the end of season results with any accuracy in early June.

It appears newbie is joined in his objection by a valued veteran contributor to the community (FishOutofWater).

Perhaps you should examine the issue on it's merits instead of engaged in ad hominem labeling and bullying?

There are many instances in the 2018 thread where the bookeeper indicates  a certain outcome as most likely and it doesn't pan out that way..
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on June 05, 2019, 07:48:41 AM
/vent on/

What is it about having a slew of new people show up in the forums, absolutely intent on telling all of us who've been watching the ice intently for many years, exactly how we've gotten it wrong(tm), and need to follow their better direction?

Color me tired of people long on wind and short on science and data.

/vent off/

Every year ...
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on June 05, 2019, 07:52:58 AM
It appears he is challenging the ability of ANYONE to predict the end of season results with any accuracy in early June.
<snip>
There are many instances in the 2018 thread where the bookeeper indicates  a certain outcome as most likely and it doesn't pan out that way..

So what else is new? As far as I know, only newbies claim to be able to make predictions with any accuracy, any time of the year. The rest of us have perhaps learned that the Arctic does it's own thing, no matter what we say.

And I'd like to know who this boo keeper of yours is who makes the fatal mistake of "indicating certain outcomes" that "do not pan out". Shame on him! Throw him out of the forum! Ban him for ever!
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Krakatoa on June 05, 2019, 07:53:42 AM
 The years with the lowest summer extend were 2007, 2012 and 2016. Can someone explain what were the most important factors causing that low extend for those years?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on June 05, 2019, 08:07:29 AM
[quote author=binntho link=topic=22

So what else is new? As far as I know, only newbies claim to be able to make predictions with any accuracy, any time of the year. The rest of us have perhaps learned that the Arctic does it's own thing, no matter what we say.

[/quote]

Well, in this case the newbie is not the one making the prediction. The newbie is respecting that the Arctic will do it's own thing.

Nice attempt at a straw man. Sounds like you and the newbie are on the same page.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on June 05, 2019, 08:13:27 AM
[quote author=binntho link=topic=22

So what else is new? As far as I know, only newbies claim to be able to make predictions with any accuracy, any time of the year. The rest of us have perhaps learned that the Arctic does it's own thing, no matter what we say.


Well, in this case the newbie is not the one making the prediction. The newbie is respecting that the Arctic will do it's own thing.

Nice attempt at a straw man. Sounds like you and the newbie are on the same page.
[/quote]

I'm having trouble seeing my strawman. The word "newbies" in plural does not indicate that I am imbuing your anonymous "newbie" with any opinions or actions.

You, however, make a half-decent attempt at a strawman by claiming that it sounds as if I and your hypothetical anonymous "newbie" are on some common page, whatever that means. It's too vague to be usable in a bonfire, but if it gives you a warm and happy feeling inside, then that's good I guess.

But I'm simply trying sarcastically to show how silly your posts are, but I am very happy to acknowledge that I've totally failed that mission.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 05, 2019, 08:21:34 AM
There are many instances in the 2018 thread where the bookeeper indicates  a certain outcome as most likely and it doesn't pan out that way..

What do you think 'likelihood' means, Rich? Do you think pointing out likelihood is equivalent to making predictions?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 05, 2019, 08:26:01 AM
Krakatoa, i x-posted your question to a thread you'll get answers more likely:

X-posting this here because i think it will get buried in the thread it was posted:

The years with the lowest summer extend were 2007, 2012 and 2016. Can someone explain what were the most important factors causing that low extend for those years?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on June 05, 2019, 10:21:33 AM
There are many instances in the 2018 thread where the bookeeper indicates  a certain outcome as most likely and it doesn't pan out that way..

What do you think 'likelihood' means, Rich? Do you think pointing out likelihood is equivalent to making predictions?

Ummm .yes. If someone says "x" is likely to happen, then I think that equates to the equivalent of a prediction with an implied confidence interval.

That's the sort of language that the IPCC provides policy makers for planning purposes. Likely, highly likely, etc.

fwiw - I'm not seeking to draw this discussion out any further. I didn't start this thread which was apparently set up to haze me. I'm comfortable that I have acted genuinely throughout and I think FOW having a similar reaction reinforces the legitimacy of my point.

I suggest we've beaten this to death and should move on.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 05, 2019, 10:43:20 AM
So that would mean you can't win the lottery because the likelihood is so low.
Or, it would mean you can't possibly survive any car crash because the likelihood of dying in a car accident is so high.

Likelihood and prediction are two completely different concepts. You can make factual statements based about the likelihood of something. Predictions are always kind of stupid.

A great book in this regard, that helped me to understand the concept, is the Black Swan by Taleb.

Here is him talking briefly about the concept.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDbuJtAiABA
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: jdallen on June 05, 2019, 10:12:39 PM
Perhaps you should examine the issue on it's merits instead of engaged in ad hominem labeling and bullying?
I singled out no one.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Archimid on June 15, 2019, 03:04:31 PM
I just want to take this moment to thank the Arctic sea ice for keeping the north hemisphere nice and cool during summer.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 15, 2019, 03:08:33 PM
Then let me thank the jetstream, that keeps the coldest air up in the Arctic so we can have warm and fruitful summers.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on June 15, 2019, 06:21:16 PM
After years of careful book-keeping, I have reached my conclusion

Doomed!
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: be cause on June 15, 2019, 06:42:18 PM
 .. but .. but .. there is an obvious recovery over the last 6 years .. b.c.

 
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Stephan on June 15, 2019, 06:48:33 PM
Yes, there has been a recovery from 2012 to 2014 and from 2016 to 2018. But six years is much too short to define a recovery in general. The annual changes are still larger than the overall trend. Therefore I think we would need two decades of increasing area, thickness or volume to finally define a recovery. Unfortunately we will not see that, simply referring to higher CO2 and CH4 contents in the atmosphere.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 15, 2019, 06:49:43 PM
Stephan, i think B.C. was sarcastic. ;)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: be cause on June 15, 2019, 07:38:25 PM
.. .. well this is the meaningless chatter thread.. :)_ b.c.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 15, 2019, 08:34:37 PM
So I'm allowed to acknowledge I LOLed at that exchange.  Some on this forum, it sometimes appears, think it is a sin to enjoy anything. 

A parallel from one of my worlds (the world of Quakerism):

I'd rather be a jolly St. Francis
Singing his canticle to the sun,
Than a dour, old sobersides Quake
Whose diet would appear to have been,
Spiritual Persimmons.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 15, 2019, 08:40:15 PM
/vent on/

What is it about having a slew of new people show up in the forums, absolutely intent on telling all of us who've been watching the ice intently for many years, exactly how we've gotten it wrong(tm), and need to follow their better direction?

Color me tired of people long on wind and short on science and data.

/vent off/



Every year ...

I have a very specific way of dealing with this that works for me. When new people start posting, I read every comment very closely. It is usually easy to determine whether they have much to offer (on topic?, insightful?, probing questions?). For those who have little to offer, I just slide past what they write but will occasionally skim a comment to confirm it is not worth reading. Several here have now slipped comfortably into that category for me. You will know you are there when I never respond to anything you write.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Pmt111500 on June 16, 2019, 07:52:45 AM
Someone said somewhere that setting up solar plants on the deserts disturb the desert life by cutting sunlight amounts way too much and allowing desert plants and animals to thrive too much.

This just to get the thread back on track of meaninglessness.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 16, 2019, 08:38:40 AM
Wait, what? They argued more plants and animals in the desert is a bad thing?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Pmt111500 on June 16, 2019, 10:53:30 AM
So that wasn't meaningless enough. It was some 7 years ago. Can I come up with some more meaningless stuff? I'll have to not think about it.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 16, 2019, 12:36:36 PM
What is it with right-wing think tanks making up bogus arguments like this?

You might know that from spam mail. You read it and think "who would possibly fall for that?", how stupid are those spammers?

And then you find out it's a feature, not a bug. The spammers ain't stupid! By phrasing it simply, by making up horrendous claims, and being extremely out of touch, you catch exactly your targeted group of people. The idiots who easily believe that made up shit. You can't trick a person who sees a spam mail as spam. They would also see the trick. You can easily tick a person, who falls for it though.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: be cause on June 16, 2019, 01:06:50 PM
chatter, hatter, hater, hate, hat, at, a .. did you hear them sing 'Imagine' in Hong Kong  today ?
 
 I once wrote a song called imagine ..

#Imagine a world without music .. Imagine a bird with no song .. Could you bear it very long ? ..

there is currently no obvious hole within 10 miles of the north pole .. b.c.




Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Pmt111500 on June 16, 2019, 01:14:20 PM
chatter, hatter, hater, hate, hat, at, a .. did you hear them sing 'Imagine' in Hong Kong  today ?
 
 I once wrote a song called imagine ..

#Imagine a world without music .. Imagine a bird with no song .. Could you bear it very long ? ..

there is currently no obvious hole within 10 miles of the north pole .. b.c.

This brought to mind that I need to visit the groceries the second time this sunday, thanks. Now what was it that i needed to buy?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Archimid on June 18, 2019, 02:54:21 PM
Here, where our spotless credibility can't be questioned because of the meaningless nature of the discussion, what do you peeps think of the PIOMAS 20C graph posted over at the PIOMAS thread?

Any insight?

This one:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=119.0;attach=122160;image)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: oren on June 18, 2019, 05:34:14 PM
I think the lines are misplaced. The black line should have been horizontal, and the red line should not have started from the absolute peak.
That is, if the numbers for the earlier decades are reliable.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Pmt111500 on June 18, 2019, 05:38:39 PM
Here, where our spotless credibility can't be questioned because of the meaningless nature of the discussion, what do you peeps think of the PIOMAS 20C graph posted over at the PIOMAS thread?

Any insight?

This one:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=119.0;attach=122160;image)

Clearly they haven't factored in the Arctic aftereffects of volcanoes. Or, it could be the enrichment-effect on phytoplankton. I'm not sure what I see there.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on June 18, 2019, 06:40:22 PM
The above graph is from The Polar Science Center,
The PIOMAS volume data, which most of us await with bated breath, is from The Polar Science Center.

The Graph says decadal volume loss of 3,800 km3.
The PIOMAS commentary to their monthly updates says decadal loss of 2,800 km3. The graph I made from the PIOMAS daily data agrees with that (attached)

Not a small difference.

1910 to 1978. Not a clue how they did it. Must have been some heroic assumptions used given the sparsity of data available. (Still somewhat problematical today - especially in summer).
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Klondike Kat on June 18, 2019, 06:58:27 PM
I think the lines are misplaced. The black line should have been horizontal, and the red line should not have started from the absolute peak.
That is, if the numbers for the earlier decades are reliable.

I highly doubt they are.  Still, I am curious as to how they obtained them.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Dharma Rupa on June 19, 2019, 02:05:57 PM
The 2019 sea ice area and extent data thread would be a whole lot better if the meaningless chatter was here instead of there.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on June 19, 2019, 02:07:56 PM
The 2019 sea ice area and extent data thread would be a whole lot better if the meaningless chatter was here instead of there.
Absolutely!
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 19, 2019, 02:18:26 PM
You are so right Dharma Rupa, this is getting out of hand.

The thread is for the data, not for questioning the data or have discussions about it.

I and others (even Neven) especially asked to use other threads for the blah-blah but the request was first ridiculed and then ignored. Even more, it was taken as an invite and now it's all chatterboxes and the data is drowning.


Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: bluice on June 19, 2019, 02:59:11 PM
I fully agree and moved my comment here instead:


My newbie guess is that in a week extent will be back at the 2nd lowest.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: karl dubhe2 on June 19, 2019, 03:08:24 PM
Cool, a thread that I can participate in.   :)

K, back to lurking now.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 19, 2019, 03:10:11 PM
@bluice : Thank you!  :D

@karl : LOL  ;D
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on June 19, 2019, 03:23:11 PM
You are so right Dharma Rupa, this is getting out of hand.

The thread is for the data, not for questioning the data or have discussions about it.

I and others (even Neven) especially asked to use other threads for the blah-blah but the request was first ridiculed and then ignored. Even more, it was taken as an invite and now it's all chatterboxes and the data is drowning.

Such hardship to endure. Forced to scroll through a few extra posts. What is the world coming to?

Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 19, 2019, 03:30:37 PM
Quote
What is the world coming to?

I asked kindly, others did the same. But you feel treated unjustly so badly when asked to stop.

That's not a problem with us, it's a problem in your head.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on June 19, 2019, 03:36:23 PM
It gets a bit annoying when a forum read regularly by hundreds of people suddenly becomes the private chat room of a few newbies.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: be cause on June 19, 2019, 03:42:25 PM
[quote author=Rich
[/quot What is the world coming to ..



 that's a bit Rich coming from you .. b.c.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 19, 2019, 11:03:13 PM
You are so right Dharma Rupa, this is getting out of hand.

The thread is for the data, not for questioning the data or have discussions about it.

I and others (even Neven) especially asked to use other threads for the blah-blah but the request was first ridiculed and then ignored. Even more, it was taken as an invite and now it's all chatterboxes and the data is drowning.

Such hardship to endure. Forced to scroll through a few extra posts. What is the world coming to?

If it's coming to all of this idle, off topic conversation occurring here instead of the melting threads, count me in.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: uniquorn on June 19, 2019, 11:28:02 PM
gnth fjls ti slpa ea;;lkk us opa[p
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: be cause on June 19, 2019, 11:40:56 PM
ah ! you speak Unicornish  :) .. b.c
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: be cause on June 20, 2019, 01:18:59 AM
this is probably where I should post everything ..

    .. the jet stream from gfs on meteociel looks like picasso is painting in a new dimension .. it's from
  another planet .. b.c.
 
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Archimid on June 20, 2019, 04:27:28 AM
Thanks for the meaningless insight. I need to examine this closer.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Pragma on June 20, 2019, 04:57:25 AM
ah ! you speak Unicornish  :) .. b.c

Is that similar to Monodevonian?  ;D
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 20, 2019, 05:07:08 AM
It looked like the language of the Gibbers to me, but I stopped intentionally using that language about the time I discovered Neven's blog. So what do I know, anymore?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Darvince on June 20, 2019, 09:23:33 AM
When I was this thread I though "At last! a thread on the meaninglessness whole-hemisphere extent as a marker of the transition between freezing and melting season!"

...but no. Nothing to see here - Carry on.
I've heard on the street that tubas are the largest and lowest-pitched musical instrument in the brass family. As with all brass instruments, the sound is produced by lip vibration into a large mouthpiece. German players generally prefer rotary valves while British and American players favor piston valves; the choice of valve type remains up to the performer. (Source: Wikipedia, as of the time I made this post) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuba) ;D

Here, where our spotless credibility can't be questioned
I think it is more appropriate to have different 'levels' of sea ice volume before the recent trend which stay at different static levels, at least, that is what I see in that chart before 1980 or so.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: HapHazard on June 20, 2019, 09:12:13 PM
Dipole Experiment (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRMR9ro_5Pk)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: be cause on June 22, 2019, 01:33:22 PM
It increasingly looking like this should be the home of forecasts from 5 days out .. no matter how many agree on the longer range . The 1043 high seems a distant memory rather than next weeks certainty .
  The second half of the last 2 gfs forecasts look like they come from different years rather than 6 hours apart .. b.c.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on June 24, 2019, 03:19:46 PM
The priest, accoutred with his threadbare mitre slightly decentred, and a scruffy sceptre that had long lost its lustre, carried for several metres a philtre of a dekalitre or so of a saltpetre and nitre mixture for curing his goitre, while the spectre reconnoitred from the centre of the theatre, thinking, "how outré"!
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Pmt111500 on June 26, 2019, 02:41:24 PM
Moving this here too so people can argue how many days 2019 is ahead on this model of a ice-thickness. I say 6.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 26, 2019, 02:56:08 PM
😥

(To quote a wise man: "And this is definitely all i'm going to say about this")
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: magnamentis on June 26, 2019, 05:13:57 PM
Moving this here too so people can argue how many days 2019 is ahead on this model of a ice-thickness. I say 6.

i think it was yesterday when i posted that we surpassed 1978's volume low and someone confirmed, hence that makes totally sense and as we know AMSR2 is high-res and mostly accurate as a base for such calculations.

i'm sure this is spot on, in 10 days we gonna know what Piomas comes up with.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: pearscot on June 26, 2019, 05:58:57 PM
I'm about ready to place some bets to see just how high this grass will grow or if it will be mowed at all for the rest of the melting season in formally Barrow.

Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: bluice on June 26, 2019, 07:11:50 PM
I fully agree and moved my comment here instead:


My newbie guess is that in a week extent will be back at the 2nd lowest.
I admit, I got that one wrong.

I’ll give it another week: extent will be back at the 2nd lowest on July 3rd.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 26, 2019, 09:54:14 PM
"She", the large floe within the Lincoln Sea for which there is a poll, has a curious texture.  Note scale in lower right corner.  Blue, I understand, is melt ponding and pink is 'white' ice.  Any takers on what the pink lines (typically 50-60 m wide) represent?  (The image shows just part of the floe; its edge shows in the lower and lower right corner of the image.) Sentinel-hub Playground (https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel-playground/?source=S2&lat=82.64202497240501&lng=-59.695587158203125&zoom=11&preset=CUSTOM&layers=B01,B02,B03&maxcc=20&gain=1.0&gamma=1.0&time=2018-12-01%7C2019-06-25&atmFilter=&showDates=false&evalscript=cmV0dXJuIFtCOEEqMixCMDMqMSxCMDIqMV0K) image.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 26, 2019, 10:58:04 PM
I'm about ready to place some bets to see just how high this grass will grow or if it will be mowed at all for the rest of the melting season in formally Barrow.

My guess is no one owns a lawn mower.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: magnamentis on June 26, 2019, 11:13:19 PM

My guess is no one owns a lawn mower.

who knows LOL [JK]

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/honda-mean-mower-first-drive/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFo7ztlMlmg
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: pearscot on June 27, 2019, 12:10:38 AM
I'm about ready to place some bets to see just how high this grass will grow or if it will be mowed at all for the rest of the melting season in formally Barrow.

My guess is no one owns a lawn mower.

LOL I mean you're probably right, but let's pretend for a just a little bit that one lawn mower exists in the whole of Barrow  ;)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on June 27, 2019, 12:30:20 AM
I'm about ready to place some bets to see just how high this grass will grow or if it will be mowed at all for the rest of the melting season in formally Barrow.

My guess is no one owns a lawn mower.

LOL I mean you're probably right, but let's pretend for a just a little bit that one lawn mower exists in the whole of Barrow  ;)
There is a company that must believe there are lawns in Alaska. If there are lawns there are likely to be lawnmowers (or a caribou or two).

https://www.outsidepride.com/seed/grass-seed/State-Lawn-Guide/Alaska-Grass-Seed/

Quote
Best Lawn Grass Seeds For Alaska

Grasses used in Alaska include Kentucky bluegrasses, creeping red fescue and ryegrass (used for a nurse crop or erosion control). Cold tolerance is by far the most important grass characteristic for Alaska and bluegrass and fine fescue are the most cold tolerant grasses. Kentucky bluegrass can be used by itself, but creeping red fescue is usually combined into a mix with Kentucky bluegrass.

It is worth incorporating fine fescue with bluegrass for a good seed mix. In fact, blending several varieties of bluegrass and/or fescues is a good idea. Your lawn will then have a better chance of surviving some factor which would wipe out a specific variety of grass. The more variety you can put into a mix, the more resistant it becomes to disease, fungus, and insects.

For an open lawn 60 percent Kentucky bluegrass, 35 percent red fescue and 5 percent ryegrass is recommended. For a shadier area 50 percent Kentucky bluegrass, 45 percent red fescue and 5 percent ryegrass is recommended. For erodable areas, increase the ryegrass to about 10 percent.

Now not a lot of people know that.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 27, 2019, 06:11:41 AM
Any takers on what the pink lines (typically 50-60 m wide) represent?

I could imagine them to be
1) fine cracks, allowing the water to drain through the floe
2) refrozen melt ponds from last year
3) snow dunes, having a higher elevation. When they melt, the water flows towards the lower ponds
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on June 27, 2019, 07:14:15 AM
Any takers on what the pink lines (typically 50-60 m wide) represent?

I could imagine them to be
1) fine cracks, allowing the water to drain through the floe
2) refrozen melt ponds from last year
3) snow dunes, having a higher elevation. When they melt, the water flows towards the lower ponds
To me the obvious answer would be pressure ridges, a very common phenomena in Arctic Ice - but to be honest, I've absolutely no idea!
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: forkyfork on June 29, 2019, 01:32:06 AM
imagine what it must have been like in the strongest part of GAC 2012 with 65kt winds and all that ice churning in the ocean
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 29, 2019, 09:20:21 AM
To me the obvious answer would be pressure ridges

Now i can imagine them to be pressure ridges also.

Thanks Binntho. :)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: johnm33 on June 29, 2019, 11:02:07 AM
"Any takers on what the pink lines" Same as binntho, pressure ridges composed of multiple platelets of fresh frozen ice forced more or less vertical by the packs competing rotational forces. So more saline weak ice agglutinations prime for tipping given a little space.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: be cause on July 02, 2019, 06:53:21 PM
so this should have been full the last few days . How waves work , what dispersion is etc . Tomorrow what will fill the melt thread .. enough hot air to melt both poles ? b.c.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Sterks on July 02, 2019, 07:33:06 PM
Storm dispersion and floe churning  is really important. 2016, no June Cliff, small storms, and a 3-in-1:GAC, and number 2 in area and minimum extent?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: petm on July 03, 2019, 12:11:26 AM
The summer of 2012 saw not just "the GAC", but a whole series of cyclones starting in June leading up to it. Using Worldview, you can see clear spiral cloud patterns on the Pacific side of the CAB on June 20-21, July 11, July 16-18 immediately followed by multiple small ones (?) July 19-22, July 29, and Aug 3-7+ (the GAC).

Each of these cyclones temporarily reversed the clockwise rotation of the ice, dispersing it. By August, there was already a huge rip in the fabric of the pack.

So far this year, there don't seem to be any such damaging cyclones in the same area (a small one on June 25). Instead, there were several in the Beaufort, starting as early as May (!) with obvious impacts on the ice: May 25, June 11-16, June 24-28.

And currently (since yesterday) there is one (or two) in the ESS. It will be very interesting in about a week to see what damage this will have done, especially following on the heels of the storm that just came through the Bearing.

2012, first obvious cyclone that I could find:
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,Graticule,Coastlines&t=2012-06-20-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-4365829.436066626,-904214.593060046,1532410.5639333741,2413545.406939954

Today, ESS cyclone(s):
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,Graticule,Coastlines&t=2019-07-02-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-2733573.4360666256,558057.406939954,215546.56393337413,2216937.406939954
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: VaughnAn on July 03, 2019, 07:14:19 AM
A-Team posted this back on November 24, 2017 on the Ice Apocalypse thread.  I think it is a little funny yet worth another read considering the shape of the Arctic Ice today and should cause us to pause a moment and consider the implications.  It also parallels gerontocrat's "Perils of Projections." Enjoy:

Quote
Tamsin Edwards is an apologist for climate risk denial.
Here is an amusing commentary on their low-ball Antarctic scenario from G Laden and RB Alley.

I did not care for the timing (as it undercut a good public outreach effort from E Holthaus) nor the self-promotional tone of the Guardian piece, nor the barrage of followup tweets, from a minor figure in climate science seemingly assuming a major role as media spokesperson.

I wonder if she will morph into another Dahl-Jensen, Judith Curry, Andrew Rifken, or Bjorn Lomberg, the last thing we need right now in communicating climate risk. Or maybe just naive (as only a scientist can be) to how the Guardian post will be utilized by industry to muddy the risk waters.

I located her researchgate page and the never--published, never-cited 2006 dissertation on Z bosons; this constant recitation of being a particle physicist despite never having worked in that area in a professional capacity. It's not a qualification any more than neurosurgery because the physics of climate change is entirely nineteenth century newtonian (outside a few things like isotopes).

http://gregladen.com/blog/2015/11/22/antarctic-ice-sheet-deterioration-study-left-out-important-factors/
http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-earth-060614-105344?journalCode=earth
http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-earth-060614-105344?journalCode=earth
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Tamsin_Edwards/contributions
https://www-d0.fnal.gov/results/publications_talks/thesis/edwards/thesis.pdf

"An engineer, a theoretical physicist [ie TE], and a paleoclimatologist are at a wedding. There is a ice large sculpture of a swan on a flat topped table, for decoration. The three start a betting pool on how long it will take for the entire swan, which has already started to melt, to end up on the floor.

The engineer notices some of the meltwater dribbling off the back of the table. She places a set of beer mugs under the streams of water, and records how long it takes for a measured amount of liquid to accumulate. She uses this to generate a graph showing melting over time, estimating the volume of the swan by looking it up in his manual on Ice Sculpture Specifications, and suggests that it will take eleven hours.

The theoretical physicist estimates the volume of ice by assuming a spherical swan, measures the air temperature, and calculates the rate of conversion from ice to water using thermodynamics. He comes up with a different estimate, because the engineer forgot to account for density differences in ice vs water. He estimates that the swan will be entirely the floor in eight and a half hours.

The paleoclimatologist disagrees, and says, “It will take between one and three hours for that swan to be on the floor.”

“Why do you think that, you are clearly an idiot, and I am clearly a physicist, so I must be right!” says the theoretical physicist.

Just as the paleoclimatologist is about to answer, the already melting neck of the swan breaks, and the upper part of the neck and head fall backwards, knocking off one of the large wings. All of those pieces slide off the table and crash on the floor. The stress of the impact causes the second wing to break off, but it stays on the table, but it begins to slowly slide toward the edge, clearly about to fall off as well.

“Because,” the paleoclimatologist says. “Last wedding I went to, that happened.”
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: be cause on July 03, 2019, 09:19:21 AM
thank goodness A-team left his gifts .. unlike Lurk who took all his little gifts with him (phew! :) ) b.c.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Peter Ellis on July 03, 2019, 02:34:55 PM
A-Team posted this back on November 24, 2017 on the Ice Apocalypse thread.  I think it is a little funny yet worth another read considering the shape of the Arctic Ice today and should cause us to pause a moment and consider the implications.  It also parallels gerontocrat's "Perils of Projections."

Another parable I find of use in my own field of molecular biology is to consider how your measurement protocols affect the thing you're measuring.

When the blind men studied an elephant, they could not agree what it was like.  They said:
"An elephant is like a rope"
"An elephant is like a treetrunk"
"An elephant is like a wall"
"An elephant is like a snake"
"An elephant is like a sail"
Nevertheless, by synthesising their points of view, they were able to approximate the truth.


In contrast, when the blind elephants studied a man, they were unanimous:
"Men are flat"
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: b_lumenkraft on July 03, 2019, 09:22:53 PM
Hmph, too complicated...

The bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus), also known as the lammergeier (or lammergeyer) or ossifrage, is a bird of prey and the only member of the genus Gypaetus.

Holy moly what a beautiful bird! <3

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/ff/Bartgeier_Gypaetus_barbatus_front2_Richard_Bartz.jpg/1024px-Bartgeier_Gypaetus_barbatus_front2_Richard_Bartz.jpg)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: bluice on July 04, 2019, 11:08:50 PM
I fully agree and moved my comment here instead:


My newbie guess is that in a week extent will be back at the 2nd lowest.
I admit, I got that one wrong.

I’ll give it another week: extent will be back at the 2nd lowest on July 3rd.
There’s no extent data for July 3rd but area was the 2nd lowest on that day  8)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Niall Dollard on July 05, 2019, 01:06:27 AM
I'm about ready to place some bets to see just how high this grass will grow or if it will be mowed at all for the rest of the melting season in formally Barrow.

My guess is no one owns a lawn mower.

LOL I mean you're probably right, but let's pretend for a just a little bit that one lawn mower exists in the whole of Barrow  ;)

Brian  Brettschneider informed us that they are now selling Snake Bite Kits in Alaska.

Snakes in the grass ? 😁
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: kassy on July 05, 2019, 01:43:45 PM
Maybe they are for Alaskans who plan to travel south?  ;)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on July 05, 2019, 03:08:00 PM
I'm about ready to place some bets to see just how high this grass will grow or if it will be mowed at all for the rest of the melting season in formally Barrow.

My guess is no one owns a lawn mower.

LOL I mean you're probably right, but let's pretend for a just a little bit that one lawn mower exists in the whole of Barrow  ;)

Brian  Brettschneider informed us that they are now selling Snake Bite Kits in Alaska.

Snakes in the grass ? 😁
What do they know that we don't know?
Is the Fred Meyer Organisation part of The Deep State?
I think we ought to know.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on July 05, 2019, 03:36:24 PM
I'm about ready to place some bets to see just how high this grass will grow or if it will be mowed at all for the rest of the melting season in formally Barrow.

My guess is no one owns a lawn mower.

LOL I mean you're probably right, but let's pretend for a just a little bit that one lawn mower exists in the whole of Barrow  ;)

You're in Alaska and wanna lawnmower.?
Not a problem.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Sterks on July 06, 2019, 02:13:22 PM
How bad the ice decline is that ending in 4 mill km2 is already disappointing for many.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on July 06, 2019, 04:26:58 PM
How bad the ice decline is that ending in 4 mill km2 is already disappointing for many.

Kind of random comment but, if I read you correctly, none here really wish or hope for a record minimum. Sometimes sensing an underlying excitement about where we are heading can be misinterpreted. It's like flying with a wingsuit, stimulating, terrifying and ultimately resulting in our demise.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-C_jPcUkVrM
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Sterks on July 07, 2019, 05:50:59 PM
I have this conspiracy theory, to be fair it's not that crazy, accounting for all those QAnuses thinking JFK jr. was going to reappear from death with the MAGA hat and all on the 4th of July, and that every-time there's a hiccup in the Japanese computers processing area/extent, two or three respectable members think some government is playing foul, when it's clear that JAXA still uses Windows 98.

Anyway, my theory is: the minimum of 2012 did not happen. I mean, JUST LOOK AT THE GRAPHS!

It was a fabulously fabricated lie conjured by the US and Japan governments, to avoid the pressure of environmentalists for a decade and so help delay the transition to carbon-free economies. They set the bar so low... to mute the alarmists! And they succeeded! Because every time there's a second low, or a third low in September, which should have been a record first, or a second, alarmists get terribly disappointed, and shut up for another year.

The NOAA guys are half-brothers of those NASA people that fabricated the Apollo XI, so that's easy. The university guys (Colorado, Illinois) accepted succulent bribes,..., I mean, funds and scholarships to play along and doctor the area and extent maps.
Shit, they even got the GAC for free, it was like nature wanting to cooperate with the dark side.
In reality, it was a rebound from 2011, sort of a 2013/2014 with a GAC. By looking at the tendencies, it is the most reasonable outcome..

...
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: magnamentis on July 07, 2019, 06:02:36 PM
Sometimes sensing an underlying excitement about where we are heading can be misinterpreted.

you are certainly right with everything while there is one more thing to consider:

assuming that we know where we are heading and we know we can't stop it, 0.00000 chance, and knowing it will happen soon ( BOE etc. ), there is indeed a legit point to wish it to happen soon for several reasons:

a) there are people who if a hassle cannot be avoided they want to  get done with it ASAP.

b) since sea-ice is not the entire story and since we need fast, consequent and painful action
.   to avoid the very worst in the long run, a BOE etc. would certainly accelerate action and
.   awareness and readiness to deal with the downsides of the necessary actions, hence the earlier
.   that BOE etc. happens the faster we get to terms with a majority needed to move thing.

c) yes, in some way we humans are seeking spectacle and to be part of game changing events
.   and to watch it happen is certainly a highest level spectacle, we have to make the best of it,
.   no way to change that without cutting mankind's balls.

d) there are still a lot of people who have a limited sight, mind and/or readiness to tackle the bull
.   at it's horns, hence we need kind of heavy tobacco to finally make them cough and vomit ;)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on July 07, 2019, 06:06:11 PM
to Sterks

Nonsense. Just likely a 10 or 20 year cycle atmospheric circulation.

Possibly caused by solar activity (fewer sunspots - warmer in summer in the Arctic):

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5e/Solar_Cycle_Prediction.gif/1280px-Solar_Cycle_Prediction.gif)

Or a strong El Nino is affected. He happens about once in 16 years. A strong warming in the Chukchi Sea is observed just after every strong El Nino:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2591.0;attach=125930;image)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on July 07, 2019, 06:26:11 PM
And, of course, in the coming years, we can expect huge ice losses, which will far exceed both 2007 and 2012.

Before 2007 and 2012, there were minimal ice losses in the Arctic. Therefore, in this cycle of reducing ice, I expect a much greater failure than in 2007 or 2012.

You can see how much the growth of the graph of the average annual temperature in Kotzebue differs in the current cycle compared to any previous cycle.

In the coming years we will see a unprecedented catastrophe in the Arctic.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Sterks on July 07, 2019, 06:45:30 PM
ArcticMelt2 don't take it seriously, it was just a parody I wrote as I sit drinking my lemonade
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rod on July 08, 2019, 06:05:18 AM
Thank you Juan 😝
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: petm on July 08, 2019, 07:01:00 AM
It's like flying with a wingsuit

He won't live long, not in one piece anyways. Good example of why humans need to be extincted, asap.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: magnamentis on July 08, 2019, 09:05:55 PM
It's like flying with a wingsuit

He won't live long, not in one piece anyways. Good example of why humans need to be extincted, asap.

punished, brought to reason, pay the price for their evil doing, come to terms, even being punished at times (facing consequences) but  "HAVE TO BE EXTINCT ? heavy tobacco really and then please consider that almost anything in nature/universe is following it's path and purpose, plants are dominating over others, animals are trying to dominate over others, planets are trying to pull in others, the sun will destroy all inner planets after giving life energy to earth over such a long time, galaxies are destroying others etc.etc. .... not even talking about black holes, neutron stars and magnetars etc. this is nature and "have to be extinct as a conviction is too heavy a statement IMO (even though it will happen but not because some of us want, like or say it)

;)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: pearscot on July 09, 2019, 12:48:23 AM
oh my goodness, I have an actual HUMAN sighting!!! Though to be honest, I feel kinda like a creeper but I'm sure they are enjoying the sun and warmth.

Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: magnamentis on July 09, 2019, 04:08:50 AM
oh my goodness, I have an actual HUMAN sighting!!! Though to be honest, I feel kinda like a creeper but I'm sure they are enjoying the sun and warmth.

according to the shape of his legs he must have been horse-riding most of his life and yes, it's relatively warm but when i see the locals still in parkas in full sunshine i assume that is very relative ;)

nice catch as always and what i like most is the nicely growing green spots.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: HapHazard on July 09, 2019, 11:23:38 AM
I think he's about to pee behind that shed...
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Ken Feldman on July 09, 2019, 07:22:49 PM
The summer of 2012 saw not just "the GAC", but a whole series of cyclones starting in June leading up to it. Using Worldview, you can see clear spiral cloud patterns on the Pacific side of the CAB on June 20-21, July 11, July 16-18 immediately followed by multiple small ones (?) July 19-22, July 29, and Aug 3-7+ (the GAC).

Each of these cyclones temporarily reversed the clockwise rotation of the ice, dispersing it. By August, there was already a huge rip in the fabric of the pack.

So far this year, there don't seem to be any such damaging cyclones in the same area (a small one on June 25). Instead, there were several in the Beaufort, starting as early as May (!) with obvious impacts on the ice: May 25, June 11-16, June 24-28.

And currently (since yesterday) there is one (or two) in the ESS. It will be very interesting in about a week to see what damage this will have done, especially following on the heels of the storm that just came through the Bearing.

2012, first obvious cyclone that I could find:
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,Graticule,Coastlines&t=2012-06-20-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-4365829.436066626,-904214.593060046,1532410.5639333741,2413545.406939954

Today, ESS cyclone(s):
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,Graticule,Coastlines&t=2019-07-02-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-2733573.4360666256,558057.406939954,215546.56393337413,2216937.406939954

We may not need an GAC for a new record low.  First, the following link indicates that 2012 would have reached a record low even without the GAC:

Quote
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/grl.50190

Quote
The impact of an intense summer cyclone on 2012 Arctic sea ice retreat

Jinlun Zhang, Ron Lindsay, Axel Schweiger, Michael Steele

Abstract
 

[1] This model study examines the impact of an intense early August cyclone on the 2012 record low Arctic sea ice extent. The cyclone passed when Arctic sea ice was thin and the simulated Arctic ice volume had already declined ~40% from the 2007–2011 mean. The thin sea ice pack and the presence of ocean heat in the near surface temperature maximum layer created conditions that made the ice particularly vulnerable to storms. During the storm, ice volume decreased about twice as fast as usual, owing largely to a quadrupling in bottom melt caused by increased upward ocean heat transport. This increased ocean heat flux was due to enhanced mixing in the oceanic boundary layer, driven by strong winds and rapid ice movement. A comparison with a sensitivity simulation driven by reduced wind speeds during the cyclone indicates that cyclone‐enhanced bottom melt strongly reduces ice extent for about 2 weeks, with a declining effect afterward. The simulated Arctic sea ice extent minimum in 2012 is reduced by the cyclone but only by 0.15 × 106 km2 (4.4%). Thus, without the storm, 2012 would still have produced a record minimum.

In fact, fewer cyclones may increase the probability of a new record low, because even in summer, cyclones tend to help preserve sea ice.  Here's the explanation from the Director of the NSIDC, Mark Serreze:

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/icelights/2013/08/are-arctic-cyclones-chewing-sea-ice (https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/icelights/2013/08/are-arctic-cyclones-chewing-sea-ice)

Quote
Cyclones do three things to sea ice. They spread out ice to cover a larger area, forming space between ice floes, and increasing ice extent. They bring on cool conditions. And they cause precipitation, which even in the peak of summer is still between 40 to 50 percent in the form of snow. Storms are good for the Arctic. Snow reinforces ice by increasing the amount of sunlight reflected back into the atmosphere, helping to cool the region. When rain falls, it is near freezing; so it doesn’t melt snow like a warm rainstorm over snow banks in lower latitudes. “Statistically speaking,” Serreze said, “summers with lots of cyclones have less ice loss than summers with fewer storms. That’s pretty clear.” That’s what happened this past June. A stormy pattern slowed the rate of ice loss. “Having said that,” Serreze said, “the impacts of an individual storm may not follow that rule, and maybe importantly, the rules are starting to change.”

When a storm breaks up the ice causing ice sprawl, it accelerates ice loss because the darker spaces of open ocean water, absorb more solar energy and increase melting. “If you looked at it that way,” Serreze said, “okay, I’d buy it. But that’s not the only thing that’s happening.” Stormy patterns bring on cool conditions and more precipitation, which tends to increase ice extent. However, individual cyclones may start to change the rules, putting more emphasis on ice break up as a factor in ice loss. Scientists don’t quite know yet if that is the case. Serreze warned, however, that at some point, the ice becomes so thin it doesn’t matter if there’s a storm or not. “It’s just going to melt anyhow,” he said.

It seems from the volume measurements that the ice may be thinner this summer than 2012.  I'm more concerned about a repeat of the conditions that caused so much ice loss in 2007, even though that ice started the season with much more volume than either 2012 or 2019.  This article explains the conditions that caused the ice loss in 2007:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2008JCLI2521.1 (https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2008JCLI2521.1)

Quote
Arctic Sea Ice Retreat in 2007 Follows Thinning Trend

R. W. Lindsay, J. Zhang, A. Schweiger, M. Steele, and H. Stern

Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

Abstract

The minimum of Arctic sea ice extent in the summer of 2007 was unprecedented in the historical record. A coupled ice–ocean model is used to determine the state of the ice and ocean over the past 29 yr to investigate the causes of this ice extent minimum within a historical perspective. It is found that even though the 2007 ice extent was strongly anomalous, the loss in total ice mass was not. Rather, the 2007 ice mass loss is largely consistent with a steady decrease in ice thickness that began in 1987. Since then, the simulated mean September ice thickness within the Arctic Ocean has declined from 3.7 to 2.6 m at a rate of −0.57 m decade−1. Both the area coverage of thin ice at the beginning of the melt season and the total volume of ice lost in the summer have been steadily increasing. The combined impact of these two trends caused a large reduction in the September mean ice concentration in the Arctic Ocean. This created conditions during the summer of 2007 that allowed persistent winds to push the remaining ice from the Pacific side to the Atlantic side of the basin and more than usual into the Greenland Sea. This exposed large areas of open water, resulting in the record ice extent anomaly.

Quote
The ice–albedo feedback was particularly strong in 2007. Perovich et al. (2008) found a sixfold increase (relative to the 1990s) in bottom melt at the location of a mass balance buoy in the Beaufort Sea but only normal amounts of surface melt. This was caused by a 500% increase (relative to 1979–2005 average) in the absorbed solar flux due chiefly to more open water and a small anomaly (6%) in downwelling solar radiation. The anomaly in downwelling solar radiation and potentially increased melt rates were due to persistent high pressure in the Beaufort Sea region that brought unusually clear skies (Kay et al. 2008). However, the anomalous downwelling solar flux was not a key component of the large retreat of ice in 2007 according to a modeling study by Schweiger et al. (2008). They conclude that the anomalous radiative flux was not in the region where the ice retreated most dramatically and numerical experiments without the anomaly produced ice extents similar to those with the anomaly.

The anomalous winds of 2007 contributed to the reduction in ice extent by pushing the ice to one side of the basin, but if the sea ice had been of near-normal thickness at the start of the year, the unprecedented reduction in extent would likely not have occurred. This increase in the advection of ice from the Pacific sector to the Atlantic sector may be amplified by two dynamic feedbacks, one in which thinner (and hence weaker) ice is more easily compacted (Maslanik et al. 2007) and one in which thinner ice responds more readily to wind forcing, which is manifested in higher ice drift speeds (Rampal et al. 2007). The thinner ice is more easily compacted and is flushed out of the basin more quickly. In addition, winds favorable for sequestering multiyear ice within the basin have been rare since the 1980s.

Tealight's albedo warming potential graphs are showing record highs.  All that remains to set a new record is the wrong wind patterns to blow the remaining ice out of the Arctic.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: magnamentis on July 09, 2019, 08:08:40 PM
I think he's about to pee behind that shed...

you mean there must be something that big in the way haha....
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: VaughnAn on July 10, 2019, 07:30:30 AM
I think he's about to pee behind that shed...

That was my first thought too.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: pearscot on July 11, 2019, 07:08:55 PM
This is it!!! I spy with my little eye TWO (2) actual humans!!! This marks my second sighting.

I can't tell with the resolution, but they could be two baby Sasquatches, however please correct me if I'm wrong.

Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: b_lumenkraft on July 11, 2019, 07:36:57 PM
The right one is the dude from your previous post i think.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2274.msg211978.html#msg211978

The left one looks like they are using a shovel on the road.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: pearscot on July 11, 2019, 08:01:00 PM
The right one is the dude from your previous post i think.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2274.msg211978.html#msg211978

The left one looks like they are using a shovel on the road.

hmm, you are probably right about that. Now the question is - just what are they doing with that shovel??
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: b_lumenkraft on July 11, 2019, 08:09:58 PM
There must be a treasure trove.  :o ;D ;D
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: pearscot on July 11, 2019, 08:27:24 PM
There must be a treasure trove.  :o ;D ;D

YUS!!!  ;)

They have found the long lost treasure of Barrow - some say that there's even some rum hidden in there too  8)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: HapHazard on July 11, 2019, 09:06:03 PM
The left one is on a bike.

Trying to get away from the other one, which is obviously a Samsquanch (http://www.quickmeme.com/img/0a/0ab183029747bb6a24a8d3c7a7b44950c580f01e4316e20d880cf86f551bf483.jpg).
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: b_lumenkraft on July 11, 2019, 09:08:41 PM
The left one is on a bike.

The left one is on an invisible bike.

FIFY ;)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: pearscot on July 11, 2019, 09:22:14 PM
The left one is on a bike.

Trying to get away from the other one, which is obviously a Samsquanch (http://www.quickmeme.com/img/0a/0ab183029747bb6a24a8d3c7a7b44950c580f01e4316e20d880cf86f551bf483.jpg).

LOLOL I totally got that Trailer Park Boys reference before I clicked on that.

Damn I miss that show, it was great!

"there's a squatch in these woods..."
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on July 16, 2019, 09:12:39 AM
Quote
No there are no glaciers there calving. But icebergs from northern Greenland could be transported around the Arctic, at least in the old days when the ice was constantly moving in a great counter-clockwise circle.
This discussion is OT here. But in brief:
The currents around Greenland flow south in the Nares and in the Fram, so no Greenland icebergs can make it into the Arctic Ocean proper. What you could be referring to may be the Ward Hunt ice shelf and its remnants that broke off large icebergs from the north of Ellesmere Island in the early 2000s. But I am certain there are no icebergs in the ESS this season, so this should be discussed elsewhere.

Well this is probably a good place.

I'm well aware of the flow of currents, and that most of the icebergs originating in Greenland will head south. But perhaps not all, and perhaps not always. There are gletcher tongues along the northern coast that presumably calve every now and then, and the vagaries of sea ice movements in years past could presumably snatch those icebergs when the emerge, and carry them along into the Arctic Ocean proper rather than sending them out the Fram or Nares exits.

Having said that, I suspect that the scratch marks observed on the sea floor on the Siberian Shelf and in the Barents are from the last glacial period, and not the Holocene.

Reading descriptions of the ice front some 200 years ago, one could imagine that the compressed/compacted multiyear ice could reach quite a long way down, and that grounding of MYI on the Siberan Shelf would be a common occurrence.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: oren on July 16, 2019, 09:23:08 AM
Good points.
BTW I think sea ice can be compressed to stand sideways, and thus it can be snagged in shoals deeper than its thickness.
I also remember A-Team's description and animations of Hannah Shoal in the Chukchi, which is shallow enough for the sea ice to snag upon every season.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: johnm33 on July 16, 2019, 11:17:44 AM
Whether it's detailed enough [?] but this gives depth/height select arctic-second option for basemap https://maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/bathymetry/ best to wait til it's fully loaded -help appears bottom left- before selecting options.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on July 16, 2019, 12:59:41 PM
Not wanting to clutter the real threads where the actual discussions are taking place, I decided to post this old-man's rant here:

Terrific, Comradez!! As for myself, a complete non-scientist who LOVES this stuff and Neven's forum, this is what I'd like to see more of: Videos with narration showing me exactly what I want to see and learn. Keep it up...perhaps edited down a bit more
 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8)

Not wanting to damp the videomaking enthusiasm, but I for one am utterly unable to watch educational videos on the Internet. Perhaps it's a form of autistically induced ADHD (not that I've ever been diagnosed), but if it isn't written down then it doesn't work for me.

Of course, videos have their own strengths, but for me the drawbacks, such as lack of subtitles (for those who have hearing problems) and the exclusively linear structure plus the difficulty of referring to specific parts, plus my inability to stay focused for more than a couple of minutes when other people are talking, make them pretty useless to me.

But please do not stop making them for my sake! Just don't fall into the trap I've seen too often, where videos overtake the well written text because the author feels they are easier to make, and mistakenly assumes that his "customer base" is just as richly served with videos.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: oren on July 16, 2019, 01:27:51 PM
Not wanting to damp the videomaking enthusiasm, but I for one am utterly unable to watch educational videos on the Internet. Perhaps it's a form of autistically induced ADHD (not that I've ever been diagnosed), but if it isn't written down then it doesn't work for me.
I have the exact same issue, and the same self-diagnosis...
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: HapHazard on July 16, 2019, 07:12:39 PM

Not wanting to damp the videomaking enthusiasm, but I for one am utterly unable to watch educational videos on the Internet.

Same here. I can't stand such videos. I find them too slow, drives me insane. Also boring. Plus I "digest" while reading much better.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Stephan on July 16, 2019, 07:58:45 PM
The opposite for me. I can't read longer texts without (automatically) getting too fast down to the next line, the next paragraph, the next chapter, and by this way probably missing the most imortant words and the essence of the text.
With - well made - videos this is not the case and I listen very carefully. If the text is narrated well and the pictures / the film is presenting the same content than the text it is fine with me.
(I once saw a video about PIG/PIIS with high and steep mountain glaciers which are not present at that place, which annoyed me)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Freegrass on July 16, 2019, 08:20:26 PM
Whether it's detailed enough [?] but this gives depth/height select arctic-second option for basemap https://maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/bathymetry/ best to wait til it's fully loaded -help appears bottom left- before selecting options.
Thanks for the replies everyone! I think I've figured it out now by doing something I should probably have done before I asked my question; I went through the years on Worldview, looking at that piece of ice, and the only conclusion I can make now is that it must be ice that's attached to an sub-surface outcrop on the ocean floor. So no iceberg...

The good thing about doing research is that you end up finding interesting things that you weren't actually looking for, like that image of scars on the ocean floor, and this project, that is mapping the entire ocean floor by 2030.

Seabed 2030 is a collaborative project between the Nippon Foundation and GEBCO. It aims to bring together all available bathymetric data to produce the definitive map of the world ocean floor by 2030 and make it available to all. It builds on more than 100 years of GEBCO's history in global seafloor mapping.

https://seabed2030.gebco.net/
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Human Habitat Index on July 17, 2019, 10:37:07 AM
Big Bad Barry is coming

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/19e7c4538b94ec63a8000ec515f79a1d4a646a13939ddfedfc6142ecc28547f0.png
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Coffee Drinker on July 17, 2019, 12:00:50 PM
I can't believe there is still ice in the Hudson Bay. How is that even possible?

Temperatures around the bay are pretty much summer like (Churchill 28C today) and the sun is burning down on the ice. Its identical latitude as the Baltic Sea which would never ever have ice in mid July, no matter how cold the winter was.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: oren on July 17, 2019, 12:41:06 PM
Continental Canada is much colder than the same latitudes in Europe. Hudson is currently at <10% of its winter ice cover. This should clear out by early August, though it's been known to last even until late August in the Foxe Basin sub-region.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on July 17, 2019, 12:50:08 PM
I can't believe there is still ice in the Hudson Bay. How is that even possible?

Temperatures around the bay are pretty much summer like (Churchill 28C today) and the sun is burning down on the ice. Its identical latitude as the Baltic Sea which would never ever have ice in mid July, no matter how cold the winter was.
Location, location, location.
Hudson Bay is in the north and to the east of centre of a big continent.
It gets horribly cold in winter. That part of the world is not called "the Barrens" for nothing.
Summer is horribly short, winter is horribly long.

Ice freezes to an average depth of about 1.6 metres in winter and is late to start melting.

Hudson Bay is one of the seas (there is more than one) that seem to have ignored AGW.

This year it has melted out very close to the 2010's average, a week or more earlier than last year.

In contrast, the Baltic is at the western edge of the European continent, and its climate is semi-maritime, Atlantic westerlies.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Freegrass on July 17, 2019, 01:13:31 PM
Continental Canada is much colder than the same latitudes in Europe.
So true! We've got the Gulfstream to thank for that. Just imagine what would happen to Europe if the gulfstream collapses. It would actually get colder here as the planet heats up. I live in Belgium, and for the second year in a row it's bone dry here. It's hardly raining, and our groundwater levels aren't replenished enough in winter either, so we're really feeling the consequences of climate change now. We're heading into our second heatwave this week...  :o

One good thing though, we've now got some of the best wine in the world as well, just like we have the best beer in the world. So we don't worry too much about climate change. We just get drunk as much as possible...  ;) ;D ::)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on July 17, 2019, 01:23:55 PM
One good thing though, we've now got some of the best wine in the world as well, just like we have the best beer in the world.
And the worst beer as well ... i've never tasted anything as disgusting as the white monastery beer I was once duped into tasting in Brussels. I was told it had been brewed in large open vats, and the white mold that collected on top was regularly mixed in and this was what made it taste so "special".

Having said that, I once tasted some horrible beer + colored fitzy dring in East Berlin back in the old days. But no I think the Belgian one was worse.

So we don't worry too much about climate change. We just get drunk as much as possible...  ;) ;D ::)
Works for me too!
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Freegrass on July 17, 2019, 03:09:54 PM
Oh yeah, we've got some disgusting tasting beers as well. Do you remember the name of the beer? We've got around 1700 kinds of beer in Belgium, on a population of 11 million... It's like cheese, some cheeses are also simply disgusting. I spend more than 6 years in SE-Asia, and I tasted some nasty food there as well... But I guess the one thing you can never have a discussion about, is taste... What's disgusting for one person, is heaven for another... Ever tried Balut, or century egg? Now that's disgusting...

I was just about to write a post on the other thread. Is there such a thing as a Tripole? It looks like it's gonna be a horrible week for the ice...
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: oren on July 17, 2019, 08:27:38 PM
......the CAB stays a constant from January - June each year, then somewhere around July 10th give or take a week a steady decrease from that 4.2-4.4 value occurs every year. The depth of that decrease varies significantly but the duration is identical, and the refreeze begins also within quite a limited calendar period until it again rises into the 4.2-4.4 range.

The 5 day average NSIDC average that Gerontocrat reports here every day peaked at 3.2M km2 in March.

Any # of 4.2 - 4.4M km2 is coming from a different area measure. The complexity of an internet discussion involving multiple measures of the same 2D attribute (area) from a single agency (NSIDC) makes productive exchange unlikely. It becomes
too confusing.
NSIDC's CAB size is ~3.2M km2. There is no double measure from a single agency.
In addition to this definition, there used to be a web site called Cryosphere Today (CT for short) that had regional area data and/or charts, in which the CAB was defined as ~4.4M km2. That website is no longer active. However, a certain user called Wipneus, you may have heard of him, has decided to recreate the CT Area data by analysing and number crunching the raw data coming from NSIDC. The same Wipneus has done the same with the raw data coming from JAXA and from UH Hamburg, and on his website the ArctischePinguin he publishes this data daily, using the same regional demarcations of CT.
Wipneus also made some tweaks and improvements to the algorithm of deciding how much area there is, resulting in his Home Brew AMSR2 data thread. I recommend to read its beginning posts, they could teach you a lot.

All this happened before my time here. How do I know this then? Because I have been an avid reader of the forum for the past 5 years.

Having come to some realizations about the regional data, I once (or thrice) posted a suggestion to split the CAB to several sectors (Pacific-facing, Siberian-facing, Atlantic-facing) each having a distinct melting season behavior, and a much smaller CAB. No one took up on my suggestion. I could do the calculations myself, but it's too difficult for me, so I just shut up.
If you want to advance the cause of science - don't complain, be a doer: petition the NSIDC for a new demarcation of the regions. Will they listen? Dunno. Haven't tried.
Alternatively, do what Wipneus did, and number-crunch a new regional demarcation. Can you? Dunno.
Alternatively, use the data you are given, and don't complain, especially not on the leading threads. Just my take on it.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: oren on July 17, 2019, 09:28:37 PM
Here's a link to the "Home Brew" thread, which you can peruse and see what some "random user" can achieve.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg7522.html#msg7522 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg7522.html#msg7522)

BTW, that topic was read 1.35M times...
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Killian on July 22, 2019, 02:32:20 PM
Fun With Numbers

So.... I noticed something a couple years ago. That's a lie: I went looking for something a few years ago and found it: Was there a pattern in the extent data prior to September that was harbinger of the Sept. minimum?

I'm a patterns person, systems thinker, systems designer. I notice and look for patterns. Sometimes they are meaningless, sometimes correlations but not causes, and sometimes something new nobody saw before. This has a *small* chance of being the latter.

If you look at the JAXA ASIE graph, you will notice that between July 8 and July 20th, except the 14th and 15th, the four lowest extent years before 2019, and 2019 ('12, '16, '07, '15 - I know, fifteen???? I'd had no idea...), are in correct order of magnitude, lowest to highest. 2016 and 2012 switch on those two days.

I started looking for this pattern before the 2016 low, so it wasn't there as clearly as now. And, of course, if you throw in other years, it gets upended. Pretty much every year after 2010 mucks it up. Statistical noise. Still, my rationale is this:

If you have a year coming in under *all of them*, or nearly so, like 2016 almost did and 2019 is so far, then it might be something worth paying attention to come July 9th to the 20th.

Cheers
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: pearscot on July 24, 2019, 11:20:06 PM
Something very strange is afoot in the Arctic...

I'm big scared



Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: philopek on July 24, 2019, 11:48:42 PM
Something very strange is afoot in the Arctic...

I'm big scared

Not real, mediocre photoshop work, was that meant to be a joke ?

all those vessels are identical and inserted, clearly visible by the surrounding rectangular cut-out.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: pearscot on July 24, 2019, 11:53:54 PM
Something very strange is afoot in the Arctic...

I'm big scared

Not real, mediocre photoshop work, was that meant to be a joke ?

all those vessels are identical and inserted, clearly visible by the surrounding rectangular cut-out.

I mean this is meaningless chatter, so yes. Figured I would have some fun at work since I'm hella bored. Also, I used paint, pls and thx. There's far more than just the little boats tho...
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 25, 2019, 12:24:58 AM
There is a lot of traffic on that road, for sure.  A fire? ::) :P
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: pearscot on July 25, 2019, 12:33:31 AM
There is a lot of traffic on that road, for sure.  A fire? ::) :P

Rush hour in Barrow!!! They are all departing that new high-rise. Alas, even the arctic is not able to escape the outflow of people and gentrification.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: dnem on July 26, 2019, 01:23:24 PM
Meaningless thoughts for today:

1) The bickering across multiple threads here is growing very old.

2) The disastrous global happenings being documented across multiple threads here is positively terrifying.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: be cause on July 26, 2019, 01:27:51 PM
Killian and Rich are just messing .. b.c.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on July 26, 2019, 01:46:13 PM
A bit of pure speculation. Are we picking up on the fractious mood out there in the world?

We assume that acceptance of the dreadful state of the planet and it's accelerating decline is still not part of the general human consciousness. Because if it was, behaviour would be different.

But perhaps that is wrong.
Perhaps the world is in grief. That which was - a planet abundant in resources, man's playground - is gone.

Perhaps the world is in the 3rd Stage of grief- Anger & Bargaining.
Vote in a Trump, a Boris, a Bolsonaro.
Start a war.
Be a racist.
Cut down the trees and burn the coal and gas.
Blame the scientists for telling you.
Not my fault. Your fault.

In the end, the world might reach
Stage 7 : ACCEPTANCE & HOPE-
During this, the last of the seven stages in this grief model, you learn to accept and deal with the reality of your situation. Acceptance does not necessarily mean instant happiness. You can never return to the carefree, untroubled YOU that existed before this tragedy. But you will find a way forward.

https://www.recover-from-grief.com/7-stages-of-grief.html
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on July 26, 2019, 01:57:40 PM
Killian and Rich are just messing .. b.c.

The sarcastic smart ass has spoken.  I'm 100% genuine, something which is apparently difficult for you to detect.

I rub people the wrong way because I have a perspective that a BOE is not imminent and sharing data that indicates we aren't tracking toward a record at this point.

I guess maybe it spoils the fun. Nearly every post on the melting season thread is a message of how bad things are. Someone comes along and mentions that the CAB could be worse and that melting momentum has temporarily stalled and the thread gets unhinged.

It's kinda sad that the truth is considered trolling.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on July 26, 2019, 02:35:42 PM
I think Gerontocrat is on to something. I am certainly going through a grieving process with environmental collapse.

It's not linear. I oscillate between many of the stages of grieving, but I am losing hope.

I'll be transparent and acknowledge that I'm trying to influence the conversation at ASIF. We're clearly heading to a massive ecological catastrophe for humans and other critters and I think the emphasis should be on acceptance and constructive engagement such as Extinction Rebellion is engaging in.

I'm critical of the mindset that connects record setting decline of the ice to the overall catastrophe. There is a collective ego here ice collapse is more important than
it truly is.

Ice doesn't have to collapse for the larger disaster to unfold. A slow methodical 50 year glide path to a BOE will still be accompanied by massive ecological disaster.

If we don't set a record low minimum this year, we're still on a path to disaster.

I would like to see ASIF evolve from a community that revels in ice collapse porn to one that has a serious conversation about what we can do to fight the slide toward disaster.

This is a great forum to watch the disaster unfold. Lot's of great content and educated users. I'd like to see it take on some mission related to fighting back. That's the narcissism in me.... to believe I can influence that.

It's a long shot, but I have nothing to lose.

In the absence of that, things like the Prepping For Collapse thread might yield some valuable survival nuggets.


Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on July 26, 2019, 02:39:29 PM
Killian and Rich are just messing .. b.c.

The sarcastic smart ass has spoken.  I'm 100% genuine, something which is apparently difficult for you to detect.

I rub people the wrong way because I have a perspective that a BOE is not imminent and sharing data that indicates we aren't tracking toward a record at this point.

I guess maybe it spoils the fun. Nearly every post on the melting season thread is a message of how bad things are. Someone comes along and mentions that the CAB could be worse and that melting momentum has temporarily stalled and the thread gets unhinged.

It's kinda sad that the truth is considered trolling.
Well my last word in this matter is that you are totally off to a side when it comes to posting here and it is increadibly irritating. I'll put you on ignore from now on, which I've never done before in all my more than 25 years of communicating via the Internet.

I'd like to use the opportunity to apologize for my silly postings, behaving like a small kid just beccause Nevin is away! Shame on me!

And I realize I've also forgotten to offer Neven my condolences, here they are.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on July 26, 2019, 02:54:08 PM
Meaningless thoughts for today:

1) The bickering across multiple threads here is growing very old.

2) The disastrous global happenings being documented across multiple threads here is positively terrifying.

I hope that when Neven comes back, he does a little statistical analysis and kicks off this site any who have passed the threshold metric for annoying.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: bluice on July 26, 2019, 03:30:08 PM
Rich, I don't intend to be rude but I want to openly tell you why people find your behaviour annoying.

In about two months you have posted nearly 500 posts on the forum. Many (most?) of them are on the main melting season and data topics, though even a layman like me can see that you obviously have very little knowledge of even the basic things. Even worse, you end up in constant arguments when defending your nonsensical ideas.

Remember the ice-drowning storm surge you predicted a few weeks back?

There are real experts and very knowledgeable amateurs on this forum. Then there are people who come to see the wise ones discuss matters of interest. Nobody wants to read page after page arguing over trivial issues.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: philopek on July 26, 2019, 03:36:44 PM
A bit of pure speculation. Are we picking up on the fractious mood out there in the world?

We assume that acceptance of the dreadful state of the planet and it's accelerating decline is still not part of the general human consciousness. Because if it was, behaviour would be different.

But perhaps that is wrong.
Perhaps the world is in grief. That which was - a planet abundant in resources, man's playground - is gone.

Perhaps the world is in the 3rd Stage of grief- Anger & Bargaining.
Vote in a Trump, a Boris, a Bolsonaro.
Start a war.
Be a racist.
Cut down the trees and burn the coal and gas.
Blame the scientists for telling you.
Not my fault. Your fault.

In the end, the world might reach
Stage 7 : ACCEPTANCE & HOPE-
During this, the last of the seven stages in this grief model, you learn to accept and deal with the reality of your situation. Acceptance does not necessarily mean instant happiness. You can never return to the carefree, untroubled YOU that existed before this tragedy. But you will find a way forward.

https://www.recover-from-grief.com/7-stages-of-grief.html

My deep respect, that's the path mankind should think along. Accepting less welcome facts allows for content/happiness while denial/ignoring the same leads to disasters. Among others the exact disasters we are already in there is more to come.

Emoji  [thumbs-up] is missing, at least i miss it often
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: SteveMDFP on July 26, 2019, 03:42:05 PM

I'll be transparent and acknowledge that I'm trying to influence the conversation at ASIF. We're clearly heading to a massive ecological catastrophe for humans and other critters and I think the emphasis should be on acceptance and constructive engagement such as Extinction Rebellion is engaging in.

Then please stop.  Everybody on the forum knows the significance of global warming, most know that it is a potential civilization-ending matter.  Most know that the Arctic and its sea ice is the early barometer of change. 

People have their own responses to approaching calamity.  It's high-handed and arrogant for any of us to try to steer others towards what one of us thinks "the emphasis should be."  The approach is obnoxious and toxic to the community.

For me, keeping an eye on arctic matters is watching the canary in the coal mine as it gets weak, wobbles, and approaches demise.  So folks here comment on the wobbles a lot.  Nothing wrong with that. 
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on July 26, 2019, 03:57:23 PM
Meaningless thoughts for today:

1) The bickering across multiple threads here is growing very old.

2) The disastrous global happenings being documented across multiple threads here is positively terrifying.

I hope that when Neven comes back, he does a little statistical analysis and kicks off this site any who have passed the threshold metric for annoying.

If I get banned, so be it.

Apparently, stating that area loss is declining as an indication that momentum has slowed is annoying.

Stating that CAB losses are not tracking toward a record is annoying.

Sharing thickness as PIOMAS volume / NSIDC area is apparently annoying.

The idea that the CAB may not melt out prior to 2030 because it's thousands of meter deeper and far from heat advecting land masses is obviously extremely annoying.

If only everyone would get along with the cult psychology that ice collapse is both imminent AND the ice is the gordian knot holding civilization together, everything would be just fine.?

Civilization is on the precipice. I'm not worried about getting banned here. If that makes like easier and more peaceful for Neven, then I won't have any hard feelings about it.





Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Gray-Wolf on July 26, 2019, 04:13:33 PM
I think our respect for Neven , esp. at this time when we are entrusted with his site, should be paramount in all our contributors minds!

For him to come back and find his efforts reduced to some parody of a noughties climate forum is too horrid to think on.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: nanning on July 26, 2019, 04:49:16 PM
<snippage>
In the end, the world might reach
Stage 7 : ACCEPTANCE & HOPE-
During this, the last of the seven stages in this grief model, you learn to accept and deal with the reality of your situation. Acceptance does not necessarily mean instant happiness. You can never return to the carefree, untroubled YOU that existed before this tragedy. But you will find a way forward.
...

My deep respect, that's the path mankind should think along. Accepting less welcome facts allows for content/happiness while denial/ignoring the same leads to disasters. Among others the exact disasters we are already in there is more to come.

Emoji  [thumbs-up] is missing, at least i miss it often
Happiness requires some stability. There will be no stability.
That's not a situation I find agreeable or pleasant.
What is hope? When you have accepted, what then?
A lot of violence will happen. The police and governments don't change their conduct easily.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on July 26, 2019, 05:00:00 PM

For me, keeping an eye on arctic matters is watching the canary in the coal mine as it gets weak, wobbles, and approaches demise.  So folks here comment on the wobbles a lot.  Nothing wrong with that.

It's your position that the canary is still alive and the position of many here that the ice is THE one and only canary.

The view that the ice is not THE one and only canary is somewhat heretical here at ASIF. I believe we are passing the boundary into irretrievable ecological collapse AND that we are NOT tracking toward a BOE by 2030.

Regarding "wobbles". I don't have a problem with people pointing out the bad news. I don't jump on them and get nasty for accentuating the problems. I"m not attacking people on the melting season thread. I just point some things out for a balanced perspective and I am on the receiving end of attacks.

A few people are freaking out in response to the challenge to a religious belief about imminent ice collapse. Some people were condemned long ago for asserting that the earth is not the center of the universe. Today you get the same treatment for asserting that near term ice collapse is not Central to the coming ecological disaster. We've already lost enough! Disaster is here and now.

The canary is dead. We may (or may not) still have a chance. But the canary is dead.

Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: SteveMDFP on July 26, 2019, 05:17:39 PM

For me, keeping an eye on arctic matters is watching the canary in the coal mine as it gets weak, wobbles, and approaches demise.  So folks here comment on the wobbles a lot.  Nothing wrong with that.

A few people are freaking out in response to the challenge to a religious belief about imminent ice collapse. Some people were condemned long ago for asserting that the earth is not the center of the universe. Today you get the same treatment for asserting that near term ice collapse is not Central to the coming ecological disaster. We've already lost enough! Disaster is here and now.

The canary is dead. We may (or may not) still have a chance. But the canary is dead.

I'm sorry, but I think the disagreement you cite is a tempest in a teapot.  Changing analogies, we're tied to train tracks and all agree that a freight train is approaching.  Some say it's still 50 miles away, some say it's only 5 miles.  Some insist we'll see smoke from the engine well before it crushes us, some don't agree (i.e., a BOE).

Everybody already knows we have to act urgently to get off the tracks ASAP.  Arguing about how many minutes we have left is unhelpful, however many minutes there actually are.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: HapHazard on July 26, 2019, 05:37:03 PM

Then please stop.

A-fucking-men to that.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on July 26, 2019, 05:45:56 PM

Remember the ice-drowning storm surge you predicted a few weeks back?


Of course I remember that. I posted 3 public apologies for that and pm'ed quite a few more.

It will serve as quite a good example for anyone who wants to create a caricature of my participation as you are doing here.

Most of my OP's are just data. I sometimes post updated wind conditions. Recently I posted the latitudes of places indicating the progression of SST's from the perimeter toward the CAB.

I have made a lot of posts recently which orbit around the theme of the CAB being separate from the rest of the Arctic by virtue of it's depth and distance from warm continental land.

The latest post which attracted controversy was merely facts. I stated that NSIDC arealosses we're down and indicating that meant momentum was down. I got that from paying attention to intelligent people who have identified area as an indicator of momentum.

My post count will of course rise when people challenge the accuracy of the NSIDC data or it's meaning.

I posted the average CAB depth of 2M+ as of 7/15. I explained where it came from (PIOMAS volume and NSIDC area) and Gerontocrat came along and corroborated that.

My post count will of course rise when people accuse me of inventing data that is real or lying about where I got it. I can't let someone call me a liar and go silent.
That's acquiescence.

I made a big fuckup by not taking the issue related to my ignorance of water / ice properties last month to the Stupid Questions thread earlier. I paid the price for it and now I have a bullseye on me.

I apologized and I'm moving on. I think the problem at this point is not so much what I share, but how people react to me. For the time being, I'm a lightning rod.

I can't be held accountable for other people claiming that the data I share from acknowledged best sources  is wrong. I can't be held accountable if someone falsely accuses me of being a liar.. Those are the things that wreck threads.

Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: be cause on July 26, 2019, 06:05:00 PM
Lightening rod ? .. or arsehole ?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on July 26, 2019, 06:33:44 PM
Lightening rod ? .. or arsehole ?

Whatever works for you b.c.

As a practitioner of sarcasm, contempt and one upsmanship, I would think you would be grateful for my presence here. I'm here to compliment your sweet spot.

If there were no vehicles for smart ass comments, how would you fit in here?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: be cause on July 26, 2019, 06:41:50 PM
My 'smart ass' comments only follow in the wake of derailed threads , false arguements and as more than one has remarked .. lies .. cold July indeed . Are you suprised that the one who convinced A-team to depart and keeps fucking about in Neven's absence gets little appreciation ?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: jdallen on July 26, 2019, 07:22:09 PM
Lightening rod ? .. or arsehole ?

Whatever works for you b.c.

As a practitioner of sarcasm, contempt and one upsmanship, I would think you would be grateful for my presence here. I'm here to compliment your sweet spot.

If there were no vehicles for smart ass comments, how would you fit in here?
Finally a place where a comment on this is appropriate.

Rich, the biggest problem I think people have is a lot of the posting you have done hasn't been about the ice, or climate change, but rather about Rich.

You have consistently sucked the air out of the room bickering with *multiple* people.  You've wrapped yourself in a heroic banner and pretty much declared you are on a crusade to sort us all out, and the rest of us need to get behind you to help push. That will not endear you to the myriad of researchers and citizen scientists here who have been studying (and continue to be) the Arctic for decades.

Your actual goals are completely lost in the process.

We relate to your fear. I think its safe to say the posters here are terrified for the future. I acknowledge yours, which is legitimate and justified.

Don't let it or your ego get in the way of the discussions.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on July 26, 2019, 07:41:13 PM
My 'smart ass' comments only follow in the wake of derailed threads , false arguements and as more than one has remarked .. lies .. cold July indeed . Are you suprised that the one who convinced A-team to depart and keeps fucking about in Neven's absence gets little appreciation ?

So which piece of my melting season post did you find to be "fucking about"

Was it the part about NSIDC area loss slowdown since 7/15 that bbr claimed was erroneous?

Was it the 7/15 average CAB thickness of 2+m that was challenged by multiple people and ultimately corroborated by Gerontocrat?

Is it the assertion that CAB losses are not tracking toward a record?

BTW - I didn't say all of July was cold, just that the 2nd half of July has been "relatively" cold. I stand by that.

Nice that you wrap yourself in honor to Neven's absence. Perhaps you can better honor him by resisting every opportunity put in front of you to be a smartass?

fwiw - CAB area rose 10k km2 yesterday. I'll stay away from posting anything on the melting season thread about that today, so no one gets offended by any data. How's that?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: be cause on July 26, 2019, 07:49:11 PM
I'm done Rich .. please listen to JDAllen and all the others   b.c. :)

If yours is not a deliberate attempt to derail but instead is a sincere attempt to learn then why not choose a way that does not derail .

And it is true the stupid questions thread is not for stupid questions .. I asked it's name be changed when I arrived here .. I ask again .. as any newbie who thinks he has a question prefers not to think it stupid and thus asks it in the main threads ..
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on July 26, 2019, 08:34:48 PM

You have consistently sucked the air out of the room bickering with *multiple* people.  You've wrapped yourself in a heroic banner and pretty much declared you are on a crusade to sort us all out, and the rest of us need to get behind you to help push. That will not endear you to the myriad of researchers and citizen scientists here who have been studying (and continue to be) the Arctic for decades.


Thank you for your comment.

I certainly don't see myself as a hero. I am throwing a desperate Hail Mary as I watch the future get subsumed.

With all due respect to the people who spend their lives researching the Arctic, and becoming experts, I thank them. They and countless others have performed a great service in educating people.

At this point we have a surplus of information available to anyone interested. Civilization is not going over the precipice because of a lack of scientific understanding.

We are going under as a result of social inertia. At this point it's probably a lot more important to understand the bystander effect than Albedo Warming Potential.

AGW is primarily a social science problem at this point. This is a community which you claim is"terrified" of AGW, but there is very little discussion of what we do about it.

We're all watching it happen. No accountability to each other. Committed perhaps to adding to unnecessary surplus of understanding that we're screwed.

Twice this year, > 1M kids skipped school on the same day to protest climate change and the world moved on with hardly a pause. Are we with them or are we quiet bystanders?

It's interesting that even in a community that is mostly accepting of the risk of AGW and terrified, that the social construct of our obligation to do anything about it is taboo.

If you want to understand why the world can't embrace the mission of fighting AGW, maybe we can start by understanding why ASIF can't embrace it as a mission.
What is within us that prevents us from joining those kids?

We're not fighting. We're bystanding. We're throwing out surplus science and largely spectating.

It's all fucking madness. I'm not a hero. I'm alone. I'm outraged. I study history. I'm all too familiar with how easy it is for good people to do nothing when evil arises.








Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: kassy on July 26, 2019, 08:44:15 PM
Quote
We're bystanding.

Yeah we are a forum discussing the event. If you want more get into local stuff, talk to people in the flesh etc.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on July 26, 2019, 08:56:35 PM
Quote
We're bystanding.

Yeah we are a forum discussing the event. If you want more get into local stuff, talk to people in the flesh etc.

So, in your opinion, ASIF should not be a hub of activism and activism s/b confined to local action?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: jdallen on July 26, 2019, 08:57:02 PM

You have consistently sucked the air out of the room bickering with *multiple* people.  You've wrapped yourself in a heroic banner and pretty much declared you are on a crusade to sort us all out, and the rest of us need to get behind you to help push. That will not endear you to the myriad of researchers and citizen scientists here who have been studying (and continue to be) the Arctic for decades.


Thank you for your comment.

I certainly don't see myself as a hero. I am throwing a desperate Hail Mary as I watch the future get subsumed.

With all due respect to the people who spend their lives researching the Arctic, and becoming experts, I thank them. They and countless others have performed a great service in educating people.

At this point we have a surplus of information available to anyone interested. Civilization is not going over the precipice because of a lack of scientific understanding.

We are going under as a result of social inertia. At this point it's probably a lot more important to understand the bystander effect than Albedo Warming Potential.

AGW is primarily a social science problem at this point. This is a community which you claim is"terrified" of AGW, but there is very little discussion of what we do about it.

We're all watching it happen. No accountability to each other. Committed perhaps to adding to unnecessary surplus of understanding that we're screwed.

Twice this year, > 1M kids skipped school on the same day to protest climate change and the world moved on with hardly a pause. Are we with them or are we quiet bystanders?

It's interesting that even in a community that is mostly accepting of the risk of AGW and terrified, that the social construct of our obligation to do anything about it is taboo.

If you want to understand why the world can't embrace the mission of fighting AGW, maybe we can start by understanding why ASIF can't embrace it as a mission.
What is within us that prevents us from joining those kids?

We're not fighting. We're bystanding. We're throwing out surplus science and largely spectating.

It's all fucking madness. I'm not a hero. I'm alone. I'm outraged. I study history. I'm all too familiar with how easy it is for good people to do nothing when evil arises.
Rich;

There are places for discussion about action, and there are places for discussion about research - which puts tools in the hands of people like you and me to take our arguments to the street.

These forums are dedicated to science, for the most part, but we *do* have active discussions about action.

Because of this, you also miss the the fact, the virtual certainty that most of us *are* taking action, across multiple venues to address climate change.

Some like Neven and myself are working hard to reduce our and our families personal carbon foot print.

We all contribute to the discussions here trying to understand AND BETTER ARTICULATE exactly what is going on in the environment.  Discussions and research products here have frequently been picked up in mass media and significantly contribute to public understanding.

Contributions here have prompted new research by scientists studying the Arctic.  *Tell* me that isn't important?!

Do not think for one moment that the scientific discussion here isn't helping.

Similarly, do not assume that forum members are not actively pursuing remedies to climate change elsewhere - whether lobbying our governments, educating people about the science, contributing to environmental organizations or taking direct action themselves. (edit: Some of us may also actually be actively running as or supporting candidates for political office in an effort to directly change policy...)

It's all going on, Rich.  We just don't talk about it here for the most part, because "this" isn't the appropriate forum for those discussions.

There *is* a place for the dialog you want to have.  It even exists here in other threads:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/board,16.0.html

You will find people there very willing to engage you on exactly the topics you are describing.

Most of the posting you do in the Arctic Sea Ice threads really isn't helping, and in fact is making things harder.

For the sake of coherence, please consider moving your concerns there and reduce the amount of noise and friction being generated in the Arctic Sea Ice threads. 

Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: philopek on July 26, 2019, 09:13:00 PM
<snippage>
In the end, the world might reach
Stage 7 : ACCEPTANCE & HOPE-
During this, the last of the seven stages in this grief model, you learn to accept and deal with the reality of your situation. Acceptance does not necessarily mean instant happiness. You can never return to the carefree, untroubled YOU that existed before this tragedy. But you will find a way forward.
...

My deep respect, that's the path mankind should think along. Accepting less welcome facts allows for content/happiness while denial/ignoring the same leads to disasters. Among others the exact disasters we are already in there is more to come.

Emoji  [thumbs-up] is missing, at least i miss it often
Happiness requires some stability. There will be no stability.
That's not a situation I find agreeable or pleasant.
What is hope? When you have accepted, what then?
A lot of violence will happen. The police and governments don't change their conduct easily.

We are talking about accepting facts and not things we can improve.

As i know you by know i think i won't have to explain that significant difference.

I for my part if i see a tiny chance to improve something i give all i have and it costs me dearly at times. If i know that there is no way, i adapt to the inevitable before the inevitable takes away from me the ability to act.

There are many enough example to that, most are sensitive topics but there are nations that only exist because those who saw it coming were moving out of harms way. This does not imply that those who didn't were responsible for what happened to them but it shows that we have first a choice to objectively analyze and then we have to choice to take action, perhaps against our original wishes, to get a second chance.

If you read my stuff in other threads you should be aware that i'm ready to fight but:

I. Only if there it makes sense or if there is a visible chance to change things for the better.

II. Only non-violent action, once things become violent i opt out because i despise violence
with every fiber of my corporal entity.

Hope it's clear, else don't hesitate to PM, after all I see that you think alike or similar, hence it's perhaps worth to iron out a few petty details to be able to combine forces where needed ;)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on July 26, 2019, 09:23:30 PM
And now for something completely different.

What happens when a sea goes ice-free in summer causes a lot of hoo-ha on the threads. I thought to myself, have we got a real life example?

The Baltic! Eureka! Ice in summer has collapsed to zero. Must impact winter. Mustn't it? Raided some data from the Finnish met Office, and...

Disappointment. No drama.

The long graph from Finnish Met attached and a shorter one by me. Trend lines from hell.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: kassy on July 26, 2019, 09:37:57 PM
The Baltic is small and surrounded by land so not a good example of what would happen over the arctic seas?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: bluice on July 26, 2019, 10:45:17 PM
Baltic sea does affect local climates though. For example it snows more on the coast during late autumn/early winter storms if temp goes sub zero but sea is still open.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on July 26, 2019, 10:52:21 PM
I was looking for a tipping point in the Baltic but the Finns say there is a gradual extension of the melting season consistent with a warming climate.

i.e. transition without drama.

Ps The Bering did crash in 2 / 3 years and may well be in a different state, as may have the Antarctic sea ice.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: bluice on July 26, 2019, 10:57:58 PM
I was looking for a tipping point in the Baltic but the Finns say there is a gradual extension of the melting season consistent with a warming climate.

i.e. transition without drama.
The Baltic still freezes every winter. Also, its freezing faith is tied to weather systems moving in from elsewhere.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: jdallen on July 26, 2019, 11:11:29 PM
The Baltic is small and surrounded by land so not a good example of what would happen over the arctic seas?
And shallow, brackish, and a lot further south.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on July 27, 2019, 06:20:32 AM
Meaningless thoughts for today:

1) The bickering across multiple threads here is growing very old.

2) The disastrous global happenings being documented across multiple threads here is positively terrifying.

I hope that when Neven comes back, he does a little statistical analysis and kicks off this site any who have passed the threshold metric for annoying.

If I get banned, so be it.

Apparently, stating that area loss is declining as an indication that momentum has slowed is annoying.

Stating that CAB losses are not tracking toward a record is annoying.

Sharing thickness as PIOMAS volume / NSIDC area is apparently annoying.

The idea that the CAB may not melt out prior to 2030 because it's thousands of meter deeper and far from heat advecting land masses is obviously extremely annoying.

If only everyone would get along with the cult psychology that ice collapse is both imminent AND the ice is the gordian knot holding civilization together, everything would be just fine.?

Civilization is on the precipice. I'm not worried about getting banned here. If that makes like easier and more peaceful for Neven, then I won't have any hard feelings about it.

Why have you decided that I was talking about you?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: interstitial on July 27, 2019, 06:55:46 AM
 :-X
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: oren on July 27, 2019, 09:00:20 AM
Rich, I am normally quite tolerant, and even more so towards new members. But I have been convinced there is a problem with some of your posts, and it's not about their content but about their tone. When you keep on arguing to the point of derailment due to overconfidence, when you relate to other posters as cult members, when you paint yourself as a martyr, and other examples too numerous to count, you piss people off and create dissension. I have no problem with claims of low or high momentum, this or that end if season forecast, and so on. In fact I often agree with your core content. But I still get pissed off, reading page after page of dissension which somehow involves you.

I think some humility would help fix things. It's not about you, it's about the science. Chill off. Don't take everything so personal. When you say something and are immediately told you are wrong by multiple posters, you probably are wrong. Take it to lightweight threads, go read source material (Wikipedia is often strong on the basic science but simple enough to.understand), rather than fight it out in high-rating threads. When given insults, ignore and move on, rather than insulting back. And avoid general attacks such as "cult" and so on. Humility and hard science are the proper tools here.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Stephan on July 27, 2019, 09:32:26 AM
+
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: RealityCheck on July 27, 2019, 10:44:16 AM
A bit of pure speculation. Are we picking up on the fractious mood out there in the world?......

.....In the end, the world might reach
Stage 7 : ACCEPTANCE & HOPE-
During this, the last of the seven stages in this grief model, you learn to accept and deal with the reality of your situation.

I think this is spot-on. Jung's 'collective subconscious' is a real thing. Both individually and collectively, humans will have to come to terms with a new reality, and for many people in 'the Majority World' especially, it won't be pretty. It will affect us all.  On ASIF, we all basically know this, and those in denial do too, I think. But it's easier to deny, and to Bargain, or blame everyone else in Anger, rather than face Despair. However, for many people, Acceptance can only come by working through despair - but there must be something to hold onto during that process. Maybe the thought that there is some good in the world, and it's worth fighting for. For me, I know I struggle to hold that thought... but I do it. Mostly.
These are actually the foundational ideas behind the Deep Adaptation Forum as well, for those here who might like to check it out...
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on July 27, 2019, 12:05:46 PM
Thanks for your comment Oren. I respect your opinion as perhaps the most well rounded poster on the forum other than perhaps Neven.

A couple of things that that I would like to respond to.

To the point about overconfidence. My internal experience is a crisis approaching zero confidence that world leaders will arrive at a satisfactory response to ecological degradation.

To the point that  "it's about the science".

Is science an end in itself or should there be some social cost / benefit motivation? Is there an implied purpose for the science? Is it useful to ever step back and consider "why are we doing what we:re doing and are we heading in the right direction?"

Is there a place for social.science alongside the physical science?

I think it's pretty clear that there is an abundance of physical science that tells the ASIF community that we're committing ourselves to ecological harm. At this point, we're more or less preaching to the choir.

The answer to why humanity is heading over the cliff is a social science problem. It is an accumulation of the intrapersonal inertia of 7.7 billion people. The problem and the solution is inside of us. One at a time, enough of us must transform.

The catch-22 is that we live in a society where it is considered taboo to question each other's intrapersonal inertia. Someone like me comes along to rock the boat and the community rises as one to say "Stop. You're messing with our inertia here".

I'm asking hard but genuine questions. What is ASIF? In truth, it's different things to different people.

For more than a few, it's collapse porn. This is a pretty cool place to watch things crater. You've got a community with a good grip on the way things are falling apart. There:s a good market niche for collapse porn. It's something of a taboo subject in polite social circles. and this is a place where people can at least address the subject w/o worrying about being perceived as nuts.

Collapse porn is in such demand that people actually prioritize it as a service over actually fixing the root cause of the collapse.

In an ideal world, Neven is trying to put ASIF out of business. In an ideal world, our mission is to address the ecological challenge and kill the demand for interest in sea ice collapse.

I am certainly lobbying for that mission.

I lost my dad 2 years ago. It is a difficult lesson in impermanence which Neven is no doubt struggling with at this moment. We are all impermanent as is ASIF. ASIF will disappear when the ice disappears or when the threat of its disappearance goes away.

I prefer the latter.

I acknowledge that I have been disruptive. The gene pool has allowed a small percentage of oddballs like me to stick around. We're here for a reason. When the social norms are leading us on a path to disaster, it is useful to have people willing to break the social norms.

I'm not a martyr or a hero. Just an oddball activated by stressful circumstance. After 10,000 or so generations, it is surreal to realize that this is the moment in time when our species may be committing itself to an end. of sorts. We're supposed to have some individuals programmed to disrupt in such circumstances. It's part of the reason we've made it this far.
Cheers.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: oren on July 27, 2019, 12:45:21 PM
Feel free to disrupt - in appropriate threads. The melting season thread is not for social activism. Neither is the data thread. The ASIF is full of other threads.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on July 27, 2019, 01:31:40 PM
If you want to cut and paste a recent example of activist disruption on my part in the melting season thread, please feel free.

I don't think it should be considered disruptive to point out:

Lower area losses as a sign of diminished momentum

Thickness estimates as PIOMAS volume / NSIDC area

CAB losses below rate necessary to achieve a 2019 record

Please go back and re-read yesterday's thread. People are losing their shit in response to my posting bread and butter facts.

BBR is making the case that NSIDC area is wrong. Binntho is losing his mind and accusing me of lying about where I got the thickness # from. (It came from you and Gero.... where else would I get such a #?).

I am expressing my activist intentions here, not so much in the main thread. Part of that intention is expressed through data I share on the main thread.

I do point out the area data which points to reduced momentum. I do point out the perspective that the CAB is harder to melt due to depth and distance from heat advecting land masses. I am reporting SST data and location which enabled a user to see the distance between the CAB and high SST's.

IMO...that's science!

Everyday, Gerontocrat gives us the area data for a reason. It tells a story about momentum. IMO, BBR is the one who should be getting grief for saying that Gero is providing bad data. He's also shitting on the PIOMAS data. Why am I getting singled out as the bad guy?

I created a separate thread to explore the idea of a CAB subdivision in an effort to promote a more nuanced discussion of the CAB.

Somehow, Binntho translates that into an insult of Wipneus'? That is ludicrous and insane.

On July 15th, I posted that momentum was in jeopardy due to the 3,5 and 10 day forecast being close to 0C. Guess what..it happened.

But I'm attacked for saying that it was relatively cold?

I bring data to the melting season thread to support my posts there.

I screwed up a month ago big time and apologized for something that should have been on the Stupid Questions thread.

I'm not going to accept being held responsible fo other people's irrational, unconventional or antisocial responses to data I post. If someone like Binntho loses his mind and accuses me of lying I'm going to respond.

If you want to go back and look at the posts and maybe point out that maybe some of the responses to my posts were out of line, you're welcome to do that

Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Sterks on July 27, 2019, 05:01:33 PM
I find your posts reasonable, Rich, even if sometimes I thought you had some reasoning needing some maturity. But doing good!
BBR is another species. His (or her) beliefs and reality (not even science) do not intersect that much. From the Arctic breaking in two in June, to the holes in Greenland ice, to the Hudson Bay keeping ice till September, to every year is a glaciation age, to every year will be BOE, to the ice is made of something that can't retain melt ponds and that's why we don't see them... F**K!!. I would tell you ignore him or her but I can't hold it anymore. I am to respond to every single crap this hyper-alarmist pseudo-scientist troll plants over the Forum, big or small.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: jliukas on July 27, 2019, 05:29:09 PM
I am to respond to every single crap this hyper-alarmist pseudo-scientist troll plants over the Forum, big or small.

Just please don't do it so that the main threads get clogged up.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on July 27, 2019, 05:56:35 PM
I find your posts reasonable, Rich, even if sometimes I thought you had some reasoning needing some maturity.

Thank you for the comment and constructive criticism Sterks.

After the incoming barrage, I confess it feels good to have a little support.

I think if others would put their pitchforks and torches down and go through the posts methodically instead of jumping on an emotional bandwagon, they would come up with a different conclusion, closer to yours.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: petm on July 27, 2019, 06:01:54 PM
Try to take the high road whenever possible. And yeah, this thread or a similar one is the place for everything not directly on-topic. :)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: kassy on July 27, 2019, 06:22:27 PM
Quote
If someone doesn't like what I post on the meaningless chatter thread or elsewhere, I'll be happy to engage there. Not taking the bait here.

But that is bait itself?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on July 27, 2019, 06:35:42 PM
Quote
If someone doesn't like what I post on the meaningless chatter thread or elsewhere, I'll be happy to engage there. Not taking the bait here.

But that is bait itself?

Your comment is oblique to me. I don't understand the meaning.

My comment is just a declaration that I'm happy to engage HERE on OT subjects. That seems fair and in accordance with the wishes and customs of the community. I'm a transparent person with IMO, reasonable but perhaps unconventional objectives.

I'm happy for the opportunity to engage.

I sense you're looking for a "gotcha" with your question, but I'm against mind reading in principle. So if you don't mind, what are you trying to say?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Sterks on July 27, 2019, 06:48:11 PM
I am to respond to every single crap this hyper-alarmist pseudo-scientist troll plants over the Forum, big or small.

Just please don't do it so that the main threads get clogged up.
That's just right, I'll try my best, chill out, and respond, if I do, in a civil way. Also sometimes I suspect we're dealing with a teenager, it's not worth escalating anyway.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on July 27, 2019, 06:49:00 PM
Off topic is off topic. Everyone here is bright enough to know when they are typing a comment that is going to derail a thread.

Just stop it.

HOW ABOUT THOSE CUBS!
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on July 27, 2019, 06:52:03 PM
When someone types a hugely off topic comment on one of our main threads, if you type a lengthy response, I guarantee you it will also be off topic.

A simple "This is off topic. Please take this to the appropriate thread." is sufficient.

If the person responds that their needs to fully express themselves outweighs the purpose of this site, leave it to Neven to address.

(Neven... Have you ever considered appointing another as a moderator? I worry you take on too much. And no, I am not volunteering.)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: oren on July 27, 2019, 09:25:10 PM
Rich, while I have some beef with your posting style, you can be certain I have more so both with bbr's insults and with his often-wild claims.
And yes, better to engage here than in the high threads.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on July 27, 2019, 09:42:30 PM
Rich, while I have some beef with your posting style, you can be certain I have more so both with bbr's insults and with his often-wild claims.
And yes, better to engage here than in the high threads.

I'm trying to iterate to a better situation pretty rapidly here. BBR isn't the standard I'm trying to beat.

I think my intentions are emerging here so that others can get at least a clearer picture of where I'm coming from. It's unconventional and perhaps unrealistic, but most efforts to fight AGW don't yield much fruit. We keep peeling back the layers of the onion and experimenting.

Is there a method to the madness? I'll cop to the madness. I am a little loony.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Coffee Drinker on July 28, 2019, 03:36:12 AM
I was looking for a tipping point in the Baltic but the Finns say there is a gradual extension of the melting season consistent with a warming climate.

i.e. transition without drama.
The Baltic still freezes every winter. Also, its freezing faith is tied to weather systems moving in from elsewhere.

Well, parts of the Baltic freezes every winter. The southern parts rarely freeze over anymore. But once the southern part is frozen, spring is usually delayed by a month. This is based on my personal experience.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: nanning on July 28, 2019, 08:33:24 AM
I think the Baltic still freezes in winter because there is still a lot of polar ocean sea ice. The Baltic doesn't seem to me to be a good metaphore for what'll happen when most of the arctic sea ice is gone. The Baltic doesn't make NH weather and polar jets.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on July 29, 2019, 10:59:34 PM
Today had a good moment. The twice a day checking and charting the SST progression behind the scenes leads to my learning about the Chuchki Plateau and an example to support a correlation between SST's and bathymetry
 
bc comes along with a typical useless smart ass comment and Uniquorn comes along with a beautifully skilled gif to cement my point. I don't have those skills so many thanks to Uniquorn. A picture paints 1,000 words.

The point that I'm trying to make clicks with a few people and there is a data point which demonstrates I'm contributing to the scientific discussion. Even a broken clock is right twice a day ??

Anyway, it's a pyrrhic victory at best. I'm only trying to emphasize the connection with bathymetry and ice minimum to try and rationalize people's expectations of record minimums and BOE's. IMO, those things are much less likely and less important in the overall scheme of environmental disaster taking place. The goal is some alignment and optimization of energy toward addressing the bigger problem. What does that alignment ultimately look like? I dunno. I'm iterating. I'm pretty sure that BOE and record minima obsession is not it.

There a messiah complex at work inside me. Trying to save the world. There's no doubt a narcissism associated with believing you can make a difference in a world with nearly 8 billion people. But it's a benevolent narcissism. I'm not trying to engage in one upsmanship or win ego battles. Human civilization is literally and objectively passing points of no return. It's now or never.

I'm basically a deaf person in a remote cave with a cell phone and internet. I can read and write. Trying to make the most of that.

I also grew up with skeletal images of the Holocaust. As a Jew, I grappled with the brutality and sadism of humanity. Now it all makes sense. The phrase NEVER AGAIN doesn't mean we won't have another Holocaust. It means we don't stand quietly by while it happens.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: kassy on July 29, 2019, 11:33:32 PM
Quote
Even a broken clock is right twice a day ?

Do you complement it 2 times a day?

And you should skewer the reading/writing ratio. Or just look into your assumptions more.
If you want to save the world you have to be efficient. You do not need to convince us of anything so who would you seduce with which story where? 


Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on July 29, 2019, 11:37:11 PM
Quote
Even a broken clock is right twice a day ?

Do you complement it 2 times a day?

And you should skewer the reading/writing ratio. Or just look into your assumptions more.
If you want to save the world you have to be efficient. You do not need to convince us of anything so who would you seduce with which story where?

If you have the recipe for efficiently saving the world, please write it and I'll read it.

No pride of ownership, I'll gladly follow you Kassy if you can lead the way.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: be cause on July 30, 2019, 12:39:49 AM
 .. be your own Budda .. b.c.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: be cause on July 30, 2019, 12:44:50 AM
Hi Rich .. just noting my oh so bad comment was to recommend you look at Uniquorn's bathymetry work .. and lo .. you were blessed by some ..  b.c.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: P-maker on July 30, 2019, 12:58:18 AM
Rich,

Being rich is both an advantage and a drawback. Being rich means that you seem to have all the time in the day to write lengthy posts all over the ASIF. However, for ordinary, hard working people with friends and family to attend to also, it is really a nuisance to have to browse through all your postings every day in order to catch the gold nuggets in between

Being neurotic is also both a blessing and a nuisance. By definition it is about an inhability to deal with social interactions. Your constant postings - and the criticism following you in all threads - would be a clear warning to most of us.

Thus, "l shall say this only once!": Neven's site and the ASIF in particular - being a global site - means that when you go to bed tonight, people in NZ an AUS will wake up and try to squeeze in a few good laughs. After that, people in Europe may wake up and try to contribute with a few historical facts. At the end of the day, the yanks, the canadians and the mexicans maybe would like to chip in as well.

If you had spent more time reading than writing, you would most likely have observed this wonderful daily rythm, which is neatly adjusted to solar appearences. Please respect that good ideas, clever thoughts, wonderful images and intelligent reflections from a crowd of calm, well-meaning contributiors requires a slower speed from your hand. This may be more effective than the current hecticism.




Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: kassy on July 30, 2019, 01:27:32 AM
Maybe there is no recipe but you need to make a choice.
You want to try to save the world so you need to find your niche.

You never did answer the clock question. You just shift to a different position but why would you even think that a random someone on the internet would have the answer while it is not that simple.

Writing stuff is about influencing people so if you can only write to try to save the world which is what you want to do (or so you say) then you have to find out a way but that is your problem. I advise local activism because it helps when you know what you are talking about and who you are talking too.

Did you complement your clock twice a day?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: philopek on July 30, 2019, 01:49:17 AM
Maybe there is no recipe but you need to make a choice.
You want to try to save the world so you need to find your niche.

You never did answer the clock question. You just shift to a different position but why would you even think that a random someone on the internet would have the answer while it is not that simple.

Writing stuff is about influencing people so if you can only write to try to save the world which is what you want to do (or so you say) then you have to find out a way but that is your problem. I advise local activism because it helps when you know what you are talking about and who you are talking too.

Did you complement your clock twice a day?

Ascetic lifestyle is perhaps a bit too disconnected to be able to mediate between the
high-speed consumer world and a feasible median.

IMO only someone on that median can mediate. Extremists cannot mediate because they are living in another sphere and often lost flexibility needed to fetch each person where it is and not where he/she thinks everyone should be.

They cannot reach their auditorium because there extreme views and terms are either denied or not comprehensive for the average people.

Also not unimportant is the fact that righteousness is often an issue with those who think that they are "holier-than-you"

And I'm not saying that I'm better at it which is exactly why i know. Even though I'm not ascetic
but still at about 10% of an average footprint where i live and even less compared to those living in colder places.

Finally I'm on 1000kcal per day, no heating, no warm water (available but not used) no car, no flying around anymore but i have a two-wheeler.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on July 30, 2019, 02:05:29 AM
Hi Rich .. just noting my oh so bad comment was to recommend you look at Uniquorn's bathymetry work .. and lo .. you were blessed by some ..  b.c.

I have looked at his work and to be honest, it's going to take time to assimilate a lot of understanding of all the aspects of the oceans that he attempts to illustrate.

That said, I was try to make an extremely simple point about very basic variables. In all the time that he has spent looking at the data, he hadn't connected the dots to the simple thing I was pointing out.

My OP preceded and prompted his contribution. His gif was an attempt to prove I was wrong and inadvertently supported my point.

I'm not pretending to be a genius, but I am trying to think critically and add value. I do try and follow Uniquorn:s work, but today I felt it worthwhile to share my own observations and hypothesis. I would not have found that from looking at his prior work.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Bruce Steele on July 30, 2019, 02:08:00 AM
I don't think saving the world is the correct scale. And maybe looking from a top down perspective ,save the world , save everybody else ,it is also unlikely to draw followers or support.
 Showing people and helping people to understand there is a way forward that both eliminates, or nearly eliminates their carbon footprint while still providing a reasonably comfortable existence , running water, modern plumbing, a comfortable house or trailer, and food on the table . Show people a way to achieve a life that looks as good or better than the one they are living then maybe you'll have some converts.
 The one thing required is some affordable land to live and farm upon.Cities and people who live in them will never be carbon neutral. Anyway figure out something that both works and is appealing and you can at least save a few people for awhile. You will need help and you will need to accept help.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on July 30, 2019, 02:31:05 AM
Rich,

Being rich is both an advantage and a drawback. Being rich means that you seem to have all the time in the day to write lengthy posts all over the ASIF. However, for ordinary, hard working people with friends and family to attend to also, it is really a nuisance to have to browse through all your postings every day in order to catch the gold nuggets in between.

If you had spent more time reading than writing...

Rich is my name, not my economic status. Far from it.

The definition of the gold nugget is in the eyes of the beholder.

I am only one person on ASIF and my total contribution is a small fraction. The signal : noise ratio is very low in total with or w/o me. I'm investing my time trying to make it clear that the tremendous amount of attention on record minima and BOE is noise. It might be a gold nugget for some to understand that a BOE isn't a high priority thing to concern themselves with.


You are not in a position to judge how much I read nor is reading the only method of learning and observation. Meditating over SST maps and anomalies isn't reading, but it informs.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on July 30, 2019, 02:49:18 AM
Maybe there is no recipe but you need to make a choice.
You want to try to save the world so you need to find your niche.

I advise local activism because it helps when you know what you are talking about and who you are talking too.

Did you complement your clock twice a day?

Being functionally deaf makes local activism difficult.

If you want to frame the clock question in a more literal manner, I'll be happy to answer.

Today I wanted to advertise that a few people were willing to come out and publicly agree with me. I am more of a target as an isolated bullseye.

If you have an agenda that you want to promote, it's not a crime to do some marketing. Once people realize that it's ok to believe that the Arctic BOE might not come for 50 years, they can approach it with a different attitude.

Groupthink is a real thing.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rod on July 30, 2019, 02:55:31 AM
Hi Rich .. just noting my oh so bad comment was to recommend you look at Uniquorn's bathymetry work .. and lo .. you were blessed by some ..  b.c.

I have looked at his work and to be honest, it's going to take time to assimilate a lot of understanding of all the aspects of the oceans that he attempts to illustrate.

That said, I was try to make an extremely simple point about very basic variables. In all the time that he has spent looking at the data, he hadn't connected the dots to the simple thing I was pointing out.

My OP preceded and prompted his contribution. His gif was an attempt to prove I was wrong and inadvertently supported my point.

I'm not pretending to be a genius, but I am trying to think critically and add value. I do try and follow Uniquorn:s work, but today I felt it worthwhile to share my own observations and hypothesis. I would not have found that from looking at his prior work.

Wikipedia

Internet troll

Quote
In Internet slang, a troll is a person who starts quarrels or upsets people on the Internet to distract and sow discord by posting inflammatory and digressive,[1] extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as a newsgroup, forum, chat room, or blog) with the intent of provoking readers into displaying emotional responses[2] and normalizing tangential discussion,[3] whether for the troll's amusement or a specific gain.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll

Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rod on July 30, 2019, 03:24:04 AM

If you have an agenda that you want to promote, it's not a crime to do some marketing. Once people realize that it's ok to believe that the Arctic BOE might not come for 50 years, they can approach it with a different attitude.

Groupthink is a real thing.

This asshole has been playing us.   He is straight from WUWT with a more savvy way of trying to sow discontent.   
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on July 30, 2019, 04:08:15 AM
Hi Rich .. just noting my oh so bad comment was to recommend you look at Uniquorn's bathymetry work .. and lo .. you were blessed by some ..  b.c.

I have looked at his work and to be honest, it's going to take time to assimilate a lot of understanding of all the aspects of the oceans that he attempts to illustrate.

That said, I was try to make an extremely simple point about very basic variables. In all the time that he has spent looking at the data, he hadn't connected the dots to the simple thing I was pointing out.

My OP preceded and prompted his contribution. His gif was an attempt to prove I was wrong and inadvertently supported my point.

I'm not pretending to be a genius, but I am trying to think critically and add value. I do try and follow Uniquorn:s work, but today I felt it worthwhile to share my own observations and hypothesis. I would not have found that from looking at his prior work.

Wikipedia


Internet troll

Quote
In Internet slang, a troll is a person who starts quarrels or upsets people on the Internet to distract and sow discord by posting inflammatory and digressive,[1] extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as a newsgroup, forum, chat room, or blog) with the intent of provoking readers into displaying emotional responses[2] and normalizing tangential discussion,[3] whether for the troll's amusement or a specific gain.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll

Thanks Rod. Wiki isn't always correct, but they are in this case. That's an excellent definition of a troll.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: petm on July 30, 2019, 04:11:40 AM
Groupthink is definitely real. In fact most people don't think at all, they just recite what they're told. In 50 years, it's more likely that the Arctic will be ice-free year-round than it is there won't yet have been an ice-free minimum.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on July 30, 2019, 07:50:26 AM
I´m posting this here rather than in the Arctic Image of the Day thread since it's really more than on image, and it's not "of the day". A few days ago I posted a picture of before/after that I stumbled across, and some discussion ensued as to whether the old picture was possibly showing an iceberg rather than the calving front (which is obviously not the case, but never mind).

My original post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,416.msg216541.html#msg216541

So I set off looking for some good "before and after" pictures, mostly because I remember vaguely having seen a picture of one of the big Icelandic glaciers taken at the beginning of the 20th century, looking towards the west and showing an ice front rising sharply (tens of meters) but rounded at the top. The glacier is Breiðamerkurjökull, and the photo taken from the Fell farm or possibly from Hrollaugshólar.

I haven't been able to find this picture, but I found another old one from an expedition by the English photographer Frederick W. W. Howell from the year 1900. The original is shown below, then the same picture with the outline of the glacier marked in, and finally a map with a red dot showing the approximate location of the old farm and two red lines showing where the end moraine is today.

The top of the glacier is at least 1000 meters away, probably more, but the picture does seem to be taken with an unspecified zoom making it impossible to estimate the height. But the top of the end moraine rises perhpaps some 50 metres above the surrounding area (guesstimate based on memory!)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on July 30, 2019, 07:56:27 AM
In the previous post, the glacier can be seen struggling to overcome it´s own end morain (which is by the way not formed by the ice pushing the underlying material, but rather by surface waters flowing off the end of the glacier and depositing sediments in front of it).

At that time, around 1900,  the glacier is at absolute maximum for the entire Holocene (the last 8000 years), but today it is seriously reduced and cannot be seen at all from where the original picture is taken.

I found a fairly good picture on the net, taken by a David Elliot (sorry for stealing your picture, David!) where he has gone behind the end moraine (first picture). This particular glacier is rather fast moving (which can be seen by the cracking) and has a tendency to advance and retreat regularly, but since I started going there in the 1990s, the glacial tongue proper has thinned by several tens of meters.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Klondike Kat on July 30, 2019, 02:03:56 PM
Groupthink is definitely real. In fact most people don't think at all, they just recite what they're told. In 50 years, it's more likely that the Arctic will be ice-free year-round than it is there won't yet have been an ice-free minimum.

Agree with your groupthink comment.  However I think that both events in your second sentence are equally unlikely.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on July 30, 2019, 05:13:01 PM
Groupthink is definitely real. In fact most people don't think at all, they just recite what they're told. In 50 years, it's more likely that the Arctic will be ice-free year-round than it is there won't yet have been an ice-free minimum.

Agree with your groupthink comment.  However I think that both events in your second sentence are equally unlikely.

You know Klondike, you could be a valuable asset in this discussion.

Do you think the denier community benefits from the BOE hype? Isn't it a better strategy for deniers to engage with alarmists on issues unlikely to materialize as a means of discrediting more legitimate issues?


Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: kynde on July 31, 2019, 08:08:26 PM
Is there any way to filter out messages based on poster and based on contained quotes?

This tworp is totally trolling and I while I certainly don't want to discriminate scientific illiteracy, I would like to skip that drivel myself.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: be cause on July 31, 2019, 08:26:57 PM
shock .. horror .. how could anyone thing rich a troll ? b.c.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: petm on July 31, 2019, 08:34:27 PM
Is there any way to filter out messages based on poster and based on contained quotes?

Profile | Modify Profile | Edit Ignore List

I doubt that it filters quoted text, but I haven't tried it.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: DrTskoul on July 31, 2019, 08:38:40 PM
Is there any way to filter out messages based on poster and based on contained quotes?

It works

Profile | Modify Profile | Edit Ignore List

I doubt that it filters quoted text, but I haven't tried it.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: petm on July 31, 2019, 08:40:11 PM
Groupthink is definitely real. In fact most people don't think at all, they just recite what they're told. In 50 years, it's more likely that the Arctic will be ice-free year-round than it is there won't yet have been an ice-free minimum.

Agree with your groupthink comment.  However I think that both events in your second sentence are equally unlikely.

I wish I could be certain that year-round ice-free arctic in 50 years is highly unlikely, but with the recent pace of acceleration and with all the unknowns, I'm becoming less convinced.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: petm on July 31, 2019, 08:41:33 PM
It works

Profile | Modify Profile | Edit Ignore List

I doubt that it filters quoted text, but I haven't tried it.

Great! I've been tempted to use it ... maybe I will ...
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: DrTskoul on July 31, 2019, 08:57:27 PM
I have ... some voices here were a little too self absorbed and "loud" ...

Edit: I was in a long hiatus because of them
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on July 31, 2019, 09:00:47 PM
I have ... some voices here are a little too self absorbed and "loud" ....
I ignore nothing.. all "part of life's rich(?) tapestry".

The brain learns to slide over most of it.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: cognitivebias2 on July 31, 2019, 09:18:27 PM
Great place to complement DrTskoul on the excellent footer links.  ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: DrTskoul on July 31, 2019, 09:27:09 PM
I have ... some voices here are a little too self absorbed and "loud" ....
I ignore nothing.. all "part of life's rich(?) tapestry".

The brain learns to slide over most of it.

Ha... on the phone it takes lots of scrolling...

I love sarcasm, black humor and smart puns...
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: oren on July 31, 2019, 10:19:22 PM
I dislike the scrolling and I dislike the trolling, but I haven't blocked anyone (yet). Normally the trolls manage to piss off our tolerant moderator at some point, and are gone. I try to help them along with questions and rebuttals that cause them to expose their roots. Blocking prevents this sport.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: HapHazard on July 31, 2019, 10:30:34 PM

Profile | Modify Profile | Edit Ignore List

I doubt that it filters quoted text, but I haven't tried it.

It does not filter quoted text, unfortunately.

Reading thru the Cryosphere sub-forum has gotten... tiresome. Death by a million paper cuts.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: petm on July 31, 2019, 10:34:09 PM
I try to help them along with questions and rebuttals that cause them to expose their roots. Blocking prevents this sport.

lol
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: DrTskoul on July 31, 2019, 10:36:37 PM
I have only done it twice.... my scrolling fingers thank me
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on July 31, 2019, 10:45:48 PM
Groupthink is definitely real. In fact most people don't think at all, they just recite what they're told. In 50 years, it's more likely that the Arctic will be ice-free year-round than it is there won't yet have been an ice-free minimum.

Agree with your groupthink comment.  However I think that both events in your second sentence are equally unlikely.

I wish I could be certain that year-round ice-free arctic in 50 years is highly unlikely, but with the recent pace of acceleration and with all the unknowns, I'm becoming less convinced.

For me to believe year round BOE, someone would need to explain to me what conditions would prevent portions of the Arctic Ocean from freezing in the long, dark Arctic winter.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: DrTskoul on July 31, 2019, 10:49:45 PM
Groupthink is definitely real. In fact most people don't think at all, they just recite what they're told. In 50 years, it's more likely that the Arctic will be ice-free year-round than it is there won't yet have been an ice-free minimum.

Agree with your groupthink comment.  However I think that both events in your second sentence are equally unlikely.

I wish I could be certain that year-round ice-free arctic in 50 years is highly unlikely, but with the recent pace of acceleration and with all the unknowns, I'm becoming less convinced.

For me to believe year round BOE, someone would need to explain to me what conditions would prevent portions of the Arctic Ocean from freezing in the long, dark Arctic winter.

Hear, Hear!!! 6 months of night even with 100% cloud coverage it is impossible to prevent substantial heat loss.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on July 31, 2019, 11:47:53 PM
shock .. horror .. how could anyone thing rich a troll ? b.c.

I'm not a troll. I'm a lunatic like John Blutarski.

In the movie Animal House, John Belushi's character comes home to a dejected frat house which has lost their charter and had many of the brothers expelled.

It's a classic rant from a clasic scene from a classic movie. Google 'was it over when the German's bombed Pearl Harbor" if you want to watch it.

I'm on a rant here folks. It worked in the movie.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: uniquorn on July 31, 2019, 11:52:44 PM
Hello Rich
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: petm on August 01, 2019, 12:04:37 AM

For me to believe year round BOE, someone would need to explain to me what conditions would prevent portions of the Arctic Ocean from freezing in the long, dark Arctic winter.

Hear, Hear!!! 6 months of night even with 100% cloud coverage it is impossible to prevent substantial heat loss.

Well for a start, it has happened before:
https://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/research/equable/climate.html


There is a brief discussion on how equable climates might occur on the same site. Just because we don't know or can't imagine the mechanisms involved, doesn't mean that it's not possible.

Certainly the Arctic will always lose heat during the winter faster than it can be replaced by solar inputs (which are zero or near zero). But what prevents the heat from being transferred from lower latitude regions, and how stable is that barrier?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: DrTskoul on August 01, 2019, 12:10:49 AM

For me to believe year round BOE, someone would need to explain to me what conditions would prevent portions of the Arctic Ocean from freezing in the long, dark Arctic winter.

Hear, Hear!!! 6 months of night even with 100% cloud coverage it is impossible to prevent substantial heat loss.

Well for a start, it has happened before:
https://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/research/equable/climate.html


There is a brief discussion on how equable climates might occur on the same site. Just because we don't know or can't imagine the mechanisms involved, doesn't mean that it's not possible.


Was the orbital setup the same as today ?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: petm on August 01, 2019, 12:25:46 AM
I'm no expert, but it's probably not due to orbital parameters. Otherwise finding the explanation would be easy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eocene#Early_Eocene_and_the_equable_climate_problem

Try this: https://docs.lib.purdue.edu/easpubs/175/

Quote
The Early Eocene Equable Climate Problem Revisited

Matthew Huber, Purdue University
R. Caballero, Stockholm University

Abstract
The early Eocene "equable climate problem", i.e. warm extratropical annual mean and above-freezing winter temperatures evidenced by proxy records, has remained as one of the great unsolved problems in paleoclimate. Recent progress in modeling and in paleoclimate proxy development provides an opportunity to revisit this problem to ascertain if the current generation of models can reproduce the past climate features without extensive modification. Here we have compiled early Eocene terrestrial temperature data and compared with climate model results using a consistent and rigorous methodology. We test the hypothesis that equable climates can be explained simply as a response to increased greenhouse gas forcing within the framework of the atmospheric component of the Community Climate System Model (version 3), a climate model in common use for predicting future climate change. We find that, with suitably large radiative forcing, the model and data are in general agreement for annual mean and cold month mean temperatures, and that the pattern of high latitude amplification recorded by proxies can be largely, but not perfectly, reproduced.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: petm on August 01, 2019, 12:33:53 AM
And another one (paywalled):

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature11300

Quote
Persistent near-tropical warmth on the Antarctic continent during the early Eocene epoch


Jörg Pross, Lineth Contreras, Peter K. Bijl, David R. Greenwood, Steven M. Bohaty, Stefan Schouten, James A. Bendle, Ursula Röhl, Lisa Tauxe, J. Ian Raine, Claire E. Huck, Tina van de Flierdt, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Catherine E. Stickley, Bas van de Schootbrugge, Carlota Escutia, Henk Brinkhuis & Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 318 Scientists

Nature volume 488, pages 73–77 (02 August 2012) | Download Citation

Abstract

The warmest global climates of the past 65 million years occurred during the early Eocene epoch (about 55 to 48 million years ago), when the Equator-to-pole temperature gradients were much smaller than today1,2 and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were in excess of one thousand parts per million by volume3,4. Recently the early Eocene has received considerable interest because it may provide insight into the response of Earth’s climate and biosphere to the high atmospheric carbon dioxide levels that are expected in the near future5 as a consequence of unabated anthropogenic carbon emissions4,6. Climatic conditions of the early Eocene ‘greenhouse world’, however, are poorly constrained in critical regions, particularly Antarctica. Here we present a well-dated record of early Eocene climate on Antarctica from an ocean sediment core recovered off the Wilkes Land coast of East Antarctica. The information from biotic climate proxies (pollen and spores) and independent organic geochemical climate proxies (indices based on branched tetraether lipids) yields quantitative, seasonal temperature reconstructions for the early Eocene greenhouse world on Antarctica. We show that the climate in lowland settings along the Wilkes Land coast (at a palaeolatitude of about 70° south) supported the growth of highly diverse, near-tropical forests characterized by mesothermal to megathermal floral elements including palms and Bombacoideae. Notably, winters were extremely mild (warmer than 10 °C) and essentially frost-free despite polar darkness, which provides a critical new constraint for the validation of climate models and for understanding the response of high-latitude terrestrial ecosystems to increased carbon dioxide forcing.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: DrTskoul on August 01, 2019, 12:56:02 AM
It required a few thousand ppm of CO2, granted with a weaker sun , but still required a huge forcing
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 01, 2019, 01:10:49 AM
And another one (paywalled):

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature11300

Quote
Persistent near-tropical warmth on the Antarctic continent during the early Eocene epoch


Jörg Pross, Lineth Contreras, Peter K. Bijl, David R. Greenwood, Steven M. Bohaty, Stefan Schouten, James A. Bendle, Ursula Röhl, Lisa Tauxe, J. Ian Raine, Claire E. Huck, Tina van de Flierdt, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Catherine E. Stickley, Bas van de Schootbrugge, Carlota Escutia, Henk Brinkhuis & Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 318 Scientists

Nature volume 488, pages 73–77 (02 August 2012) | Download Citation

Abstract

The warmest global climates of the past 65 million years occurred during the early Eocene epoch (about 55 to 48 million years ago), when the Equator-to-pole temperature gradients were much smaller than today1,2 and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were in excess of one thousand parts per million by volume3,4. Recently the early Eocene has received considerable interest because it may provide insight into the response of Earth’s climate and biosphere to the high atmospheric carbon dioxide levels that are expected in the near future5 as a consequence of unabated anthropogenic carbon emissions4,6.
Climatic conditions of the early Eocene ‘greenhouse world’, however, are poorly constrained in critical regions, particularly Antarctica. Here we present a well-dated record of early Eocene climate on Antarctica from an ocean sediment core recovered off the Wilkes Land coast of East Antarctica. The information from biotic climate proxies (pollen and spores) and independent organic geochemical climate proxies (indices based on branched tetraether lipids) yields quantitative, seasonal temperature reconstructions for the early Eocene greenhouse world on Antarctica. We show that the climate in lowland settings along the Wilkes Land coast (at a palaeolatitude of about 70° south) supported the growth of highly diverse, near-tropical forests characterized by mesothermal to megathermal floral elements including palms and Bombacoideae. Notably, winters were extremely mild (warmer than 10 °C) and essentially frost-free despite polar darkness, which provides a critical new constraint for the validation of climate models and for understanding the response of high-latitude terrestrial ecosystems to increased carbon dioxide forcing.

I am absolutely fascinated by the periods of equable climate but the sentences that I have set to bold type tells me we are not close to such an occurrence. What were the authors smoking when they said we would reach CO2 levels of 1000 ppm in the near future?

Human civilization and increases in anthropogenic forcing will have ceased long before then.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: petm on August 01, 2019, 01:48:28 AM
Near future might easily mean 100s, 1000s, or 10000s of years when talking about epochs. But it's not at all far-fetched that we might reach 1000 ppm by 2100 (https://skepticalscience.com/exponential-increase-CO2-warming.htm). And we probably don't need 1000 ppm for an ice-free Arctic Ocean in winter. What happens once we have an ice-free (or mostly) ocean along with major storm-induced mixing? What would be the knock-on effects for re-freeze, local climate (already warming rapidly especially in winter), and global atmospheric circulation?

I'm just no longer convinced that we can completely rule out an ice free arctic in winter on the 100s of years timescale, and maybe sooner. All components of the climate system seem to be responding at rates that until recently were unimaginable, and we may well be just at the beginning of an acceleration.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 01, 2019, 02:17:14 AM
Near future might easily mean 100s, 1000s, or 10000s of years when talking about epochs. But it's not at all far-fetched that we might reach 1000 ppm by 2100 (https://skepticalscience.com/exponential-increase-CO2-warming.htm). And we probably don't need 1000 ppm for an ice-free Arctic Ocean in winter. What happens once we have an ice-free (or mostly) ocean along with major storm-induced mixing? What would be the knock-on effects for re-freeze, local climate (already warming rapidly especially in winter), and global atmospheric circulation?

I'm just no longer convinced that we can completely rule out an ice free arctic in winter on the 100s of years timescale, and maybe sooner. All components of the climate system seem to be responding at rates that until recently were unimaginable, and we may well be just at the beginning of an acceleration.

You posted this in response to my saying we will not have a year long BOE by 2050. We will be at 500 ppm CO2 by 2050 and this is simply not enough forcing IMHO.

For the record, we may very well be seasonally ice free by 2050.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: petm on August 01, 2019, 02:37:42 AM
I don't think we are disagreeing.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: wili on August 01, 2019, 05:33:23 AM
sh wrote: "For me to believe year round BOE, someone would need to explain to me what conditions would prevent portions of the Arctic Ocean from freezing in the long, dark Arctic winter."

I can think of a few factors that could come into play, some of which we have already witnessed:

• Big increases in regional water vapor with consequent effects on regional GW (likely with BOE)
• Big increases in low level clouds (obviously related to the previous)
• Big increases in regional methane, whether from land or sea or elsewhere
• Big increases in wave amplitude (likely with BOE) churning deep, warmer waters up toward the surfact
• Ever loopier Rossby waves bringing ever warmer, ever wetter air up from the south
• Total breakdown of atmospheric currents to 'one cell' 'equable climate'
• Big alterations in ocean currents (likely with BOE, but in what direction is hard to say)
• Ever stronger cyclones coming ever further north
• Other ever-larger and ever hotter subtropical airmasses moving north of the Arctic circle (as is happening now over Greenland)...

Those are just some things at the top of my brain. I'm sure others can think of more mechanisms that would hold more heat in the Arctic or transport more heat in. It's hard to say how important any one of these would be or how much they would interact to reinforce each other and how quickly. But given these and others, I don't see how one can say that it is completely unimaginable that year round BOE could be a 'thing' in the not so very distant future.

There are other things possible/observed wrt to the stratosphere that perhaps others could clarify more competently than I.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: nanning on August 01, 2019, 05:37:32 AM
The polar water can get a lot warmer. e.g. Because of the gulfstream many northern places remain ice-free in winter.
I think we are far from a year-round BOE. Perhaps a hyperthermal will come to help get the neccessary forcing? AHGW.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 01, 2019, 06:59:50 AM
sh wrote: "For me to believe year round BOE, someone would need to explain to me what conditions would prevent portions of the Arctic Ocean from freezing in the long, dark Arctic winter."

I can think of a few factors that could come into play, some of which we have already witnessed:
Well the sea around Svalbard (and even a couple of hundred km to the north at times) does not freeze in winter in spite of there being a long dark Arctic winter there. On the Atlantic front, we quite often see Ice-free conditions through winter in (admittedly) small areas north of 80 degrees.

So a warmer North-Atlantic current that stretches ever further north along the surface, particularly if coupled with clouds during winter, might well keep a very large part of the Arctic ocean ice free all year round.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: jdallen on August 01, 2019, 07:19:58 AM
sh wrote: "For me to believe year round BOE, someone would need to explain to me what conditions would prevent portions of the Arctic Ocean from freezing in the long, dark Arctic winter."

I can think of a few factors that could come into play, some of which we have already witnessed:
Well the sea around Svalbard (and even a couple of hundred km to the north at times) does not freeze in winter in spite of there being a long dark Arctic winter there. On the Atlantic front, we quite often see Ice-free conditions through winter in (admittedly) small areas north of 80 degrees.

So a warmer North-Atlantic current that stretches ever further north along the surface, particularly if coupled with clouds during winter, might well keep a very large part of the Arctic ocean ice free all year round.
Much depends on salinity and total system heat present.

Greenland still presents a serious "cold pole" as does Siberia/Yakutsk.  As long as we see snowfall over these regions, I think at the very least, near shore and the CAB north of the dropoff at Nansen basin will probably continue to freeze seasonally through the end of the century.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on August 01, 2019, 10:09:03 AM
I think this Autumn we may get a little taster of the impact of higher Arctic SSTs in summer on re-freeze and perhaps even on eventual ice volumes in that part of the Arctic at maximum?

The Chukchi SSTs are very high. Will this significantly the timing of refreeze? i.e. maybe just a hint of the effect of warming Arctic seas on winter ice?

One is permitted to speculate on this thread. Jolly good thing too.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: DrTskoul on August 01, 2019, 11:22:26 AM
I am interested to follow the snow as normally and the weather in the atlsntic/northeast us. 2013 was very snowy here.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: oren on August 01, 2019, 11:34:51 AM
N. is back in action in the main threads. It has immediately quieted. I hope it stays that way.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Rich on August 01, 2019, 01:49:10 PM
N. is back in action in the main threads. It has immediately quieted. I hope it stays that way.

He also clarified in a side thread that it's not ASIF's mission to stop AGW. I'm pretty sure that he hopes the information shared here will be helpful in that regard.
He's a good man. You are too Oren.

The war to salvage human civilization goes on. The resistance is alive and growing. ASIF is not a hub of resistance. But it's a great source of information exchange and a good place to watch it all end, for those so inclined.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: aslan on August 01, 2019, 03:44:40 PM
During the Eocene, CO2 was probably around 1000 pm and orbital factor were probably not a good explanation for equable climate. Despite this, Arctic was perennially ice free with subtropical fauna / flora up to Ellesmere -and the paleolatitude of the island was about the same that today-. But even more, during middle Miocene sea ice was probably restricted to central Arctic during winter (cf. https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms11148 ) while CO2 was around 500 ppm. There is also some other indirect elements, like the fossils of a cool temperature forest on Bank island : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.522.4554&rep=rep1&type=pdf -and usually cool temperate forest is not found with sea ice https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperate_coniferous_forest#/media/File:Biome_map_05.svg -.
Excepted for central basin (i.e. extent at 5 millions in winter), perennially open Arctic is not likely by 2050 but still possible. If we follow the same trajectory for CO2 emissions, the earliest decade this could really happen is 2070s or 2080s. Open Arctic in winter can probably be sustained with greater CO2, moisture, enhanced cloud cover and ocean heat transport I think. For ocean heat transport, I am strongly convinced by the theory of Kerry Emmanuel, saying that more hurricanes, and more poleward hurricane, could increase the ocean heat transport. The problem is that models needs large scale gradient for heat transport, but paleoclimatology show that it was definitively not the case. As hurricanes are mesoscale system, are not well handled by models, and don't need gradient for mixing heat, they check all the boxes for explaining why models and paleoclimalogy are on an head on collision trajectory.

P.S. : petm was speaking of year-round Arctic ice free but in my head in 50 years we will be in 2050. Excepted, this is no longer the case since 20 years now XD
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: wili on August 01, 2019, 08:06:38 PM
Aslan wrote:

Quote
...Open Arctic in winter can probably be sustained with greater CO2, moisture, enhanced cloud cover and ocean heat transport I think. For ocean heat transport, I am strongly convinced by the theory of Kerry Emmanuel, saying that more hurricanes, and more poleward hurricane, could increase the ocean heat transport...

Thanks, that's pretty much my understanding of it, too.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 04, 2019, 10:53:27 AM
Taken from the 2019 melting season thread.

This insolation graph gets posted from time to time, but I think it is missing a cruicial component for best understanding. So I added it. At approx 350, the insolation/radiation balance seems to be achieved.

As we enter the final month of melt, we can see that pretty much all the sun energy excess is in the past, and now a good stirring is what the melt doctor should write a prescription for.

(Once the ESS finishes melting out in a week or two, conditions for cyclone creation will be as ideal as possible in the Arctic.)

Do you have a paper that you can quote to back this figure up?

Nah. It is just common sense. For several reasons. Everywhere in the world that isn't coastal starts to freeze under 350 and starts to melt above 350. Also, earth receives an average of about 350 wm2 overall, so it is basic logic that if earth isn't changing temperature, there is an equilibrium near 350.

If you print this out, it will be paper. Then you can use this to back up the figure. Good luck.
GSY posted the image shown below, and according to that and his words above, everything north of 30 degrees that is not coastal will freeze between the equinoxes. I wonder if they know about this in Cairo, Egypt (30.2N) or Dallas, Texas (32.46N) ?

Another couple of cities where they would be laughing their heads off are Baghdad, Iraq (33.2N) and Islamabad, Pakistan (33.4N).
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Sterks on August 04, 2019, 11:12:49 AM
Taken from the 2019 melting season thread.

This insolation graph gets posted from time to time, but I think it is missing a cruicial component for best understanding. So I added it. At approx 350, the insolation/radiation balance seems to be achieved.

As we enter the final month of melt, we can see that pretty much all the sun energy excess is in the past, and now a good stirring is what the melt doctor should write a prescription for.

(Once the ESS finishes melting out in a week or two, conditions for cyclone creation will be as ideal as possible in the Arctic.)

Do you have a paper that you can quote to back this figure up?

Nah. It is just common sense. For several reasons. Everywhere in the world that isn't coastal starts to freeze under 350 and starts to melt above 350. Also, earth receives an average of about 350 wm2 overall, so it is basic logic that if earth isn't changing temperature, there is an equilibrium near 350.

If you print this out, it will be paper. Then you can use this to back up the figure. Good luck.
GSY posted the image shown below, and according to that and his words above, everything north of 30 degrees that is not coastal will freeze between the equinoxes. I wonder if they know about this in Cairo, Egypt (30.2N) or Dallas, Texas (32.46N) ?

Another couple of cities where they would be laughing their heads off are Baghdad, Iraq (33.2N) and Islamabad, Pakistan (33.4N).

He makes a good point though. Very blunt numbers, but the thing is that this diagram lacks of an average outgoing radiative energy, which will vary with latitude and time of the year (and in reality earth location but that should be averaged out for simplicity).
The problem is that this plot misleads us all the time. At least GSY made a first attempt to a better understanding, and indicated us how to reach the paper too.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 04, 2019, 11:46:02 AM
He makes a good point though. Very blunt numbers, but the thing is that this diagram lacks of an average outgoing radiative energy, which will vary with latitude and time of the year (and in reality earth location but that should be averaged out for simplicity).
The problem is that this plot misleads us all the time. At least GSY made a first attempt to a better understanding, and indicated us how to reach the paper too.
I've often used this diagram to explain how plants can grow very well during summer in northern latitudes (lots of insolation) and why ice can melt increadibly fast under direct sunlight in the middle of summer even if the sun isn't all that high in the sky.

As I understand it, what the higher latitude lose due to low angle of incident, they gain due to many more hours of solar irradiation during summer.

But this diagram can obviously not be used to predict temperatures other than as a reminder that the higher latitudes are colder because they receive less sunlight during the year. And since the diagram is of so very little use in predicting temperatures, adding outgoing radiation seems to me to be just stupid.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: GlassHalfEmpty on August 04, 2019, 01:12:56 PM
He makes a good point though. Very blunt numbers, but the thing is that this diagram lacks of an average outgoing radiative energy, which will vary with latitude and time of the year (and in reality earth location but that should be averaged out for simplicity).
The phrase "starts to freeze" implies, well, freezing. GSY might get away with "has the potential to start to cool, ignoring all other factors including (but not exclusively) wind, sea currents, and cloud cover". Implying freezing starts in locations where the insolation/radiative balance goes negative and ignoring that the current sea temperature is, say, 15 C is just misleading/wrong.

Quote
The problem is that this plot misleads us all the time. At least GSY made a first attempt to a better understanding, and indicated us how to reach the paper too.
Eh? When asked for a reference to a paper, GSY said:
Quote
If you print this out, it will be paper. Then you can use this to back up the figure. Good luck.
That doesn't really fill me with very much confidence in this being any other than personal opinion. Which is fine, and shouldn't be discouraged, but don't represent it as being anything other than that.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Steven on August 04, 2019, 02:01:50 PM
He makes a good point though. Very blunt numbers, but the thing is that this diagram lacks of an average outgoing radiative energy, which will vary with latitude and time of the year (and in reality earth location but that should be averaged out for simplicity).
The problem is that this plot misleads us all the time. At least GSY made a first attempt to a better understanding, and indicated us how to reach the paper too.
I've often used this diagram to explain how plants can grow very well during summer in northern latitudes (lots of insolation) and why ice can melt increadibly fast under direct sunlight in the middle of summer even if the sun isn't all that high in the sky.

As I understand it, what the higher latitude lose due to low angle of incident, they gain due to many more hours of solar irradiation during summer.

That graph shows insolation at the top of atmosphere.   Insolation at the surface will be substantially less than at the top of atmosphere when the sun is at a low angle above the horizon, as the light then has to travel a longer path through the atmosphere and more of it gets absorbed (or reflected) by the atmosphere before it reaches the ground.  Moreover, surface albedo is higher when the sun is at a low angle above the horizon, so more light gets reflected at the surface too.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Sterks on August 04, 2019, 02:17:01 PM
He makes a good point though. Very blunt numbers, but the thing is that this diagram lacks of an average outgoing radiative energy, which will vary with latitude and time of the year (and in reality earth location but that should be averaged out for simplicity).
The phrase "starts to freeze" implies, well, freezing. GSY might get away with "has the potential to start to cool, ignoring all other factors including (but not exclusively) wind, sea currents, and cloud cover". Implying freezing starts in locations where the insolation/radiative balance goes negative and ignoring that the current sea temperature is, say, 15 C is just misleading/wrong.

Quote
The problem is that this plot misleads us all the time. At least GSY made a first attempt to a better understanding, and indicated us how to reach the paper too.
Eh? When asked for a reference to a paper, GSY said:
Quote
If you print this out, it will be paper. Then you can use this to back up the figure. Good luck.
That doesn't really fill me with very much confidence in this being any other than personal opinion. Which is fine, and shouldn't be discouraged, but don't represent it as being anything other than that.
1.I meant to take it as a first approximation of when open skies actually help freezing (until early May) and when open skies start to help cool off the partially melt Arctic (mid August). Open skies by the end of August do help lowering temperatures. Let’s forget other latitudes.
2. I was following the joke of “printing out” the post as a reference... he does provide a paper, the one you print out. Just kidding.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: petm on August 04, 2019, 02:35:40 PM
Unlike incoming radiation, outgoing radiation isn't a simple function and certainly is not constant.

(https://www.cmsaf.eu/EN/Overview/graphics/TRS_TET.jpg?__blob=poster&v=4)

This is a snapshot from June 2010. Top is reflected (think albedo), bottom is emitted (long wavelength). Left is with clouds (actual average of June 2010), right is no clouds.

https://www.cmsaf.eu/EN/Overview/OurProducts/ToA_Products/ToA_Products_node.html
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 04, 2019, 02:40:34 PM
He makes a good point though. Very blunt numbers, but the thing is that this diagram lacks of an average outgoing radiative energy, which will vary with latitude and time of the year (and in reality earth location but that should be averaged out for simplicity).
The problem is that this plot misleads us all the time. At least GSY made a first attempt to a better understanding, and indicated us how to reach the paper too.
I've often used this diagram to explain how plants can grow very well during summer in northern latitudes (lots of insolation) and why ice can melt increadibly fast under direct sunlight in the middle of summer even if the sun isn't all that high in the sky.

As I understand it, what the higher latitude lose due to low angle of incident, they gain due to many more hours of solar irradiation during summer.

That graph shows insolation at the top of atmosphere.   Insolation at the surface will be substantially less than at the top of atmosphere when the sun is at a low angle above the horizon, as the light then has to travel a longer path through the atmosphere and more of it gets absorbed (or reflected) by the atmosphere before it reaches the ground.  Moreover, surface albedo is higher when the sun is at a low angle above the horizon, so more light gets reflected at the surface too.
"Substantially les"s is rather subjective. The sun can certainly be very strong even if it is only at 30 degrees rather than 90 degrees. And the ozone layer which blocks quite a lot of radiation is much thinner at northern latitudes.

As for albedo increasing with angle of incidence - yes, but the longer hours of daylight make up for that. So I would think that the graph is mostly correct as to the amount of solar energy a particular square meter of ground (or water or ice) can expect in a 24 hour period.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 04, 2019, 03:02:25 PM
Re the longer distance traveled through the atmosphere: At 30 degrees the distance is twice what it would be at 90 degrees. On the other hand, the troposphere in the tropics is twice as thick as in the arctic. So I guess that evens it out a bit?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on August 04, 2019, 03:30:18 PM

GSY posted the image shown below, and according to that and his words above, everything north of 30 degrees that is not coastal will freeze between the equinoxes. I wonder if they know about this in Cairo, Egypt (30.2N) or Dallas, Texas (32.46N) ?

Another couple of cities where they would be laughing their heads off are Baghdad, Iraq (33.2N) and Islamabad, Pakistan (33.4N).

If the sun energy stabilized and the seasons stopped changing at any time during nov, dec, jan, or feb, all these cities (except Cairo, which is coastal) would freeze over. Starting to freeze is different than freezing. Same thing with the opposite in the Arctic. The north pole "starts to melt" in June (as far as energy balance is concerned), but there just isn't enough time.

Anyways the whole point is that everything is about energy balance and lag. I think the point I made is actually an important one. Not sure why you want to poke fun. Also, I live at 30N and have been to or near all 4 cities. I don't think many people would laugh due to their poor english comprehension or their being texan.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on August 04, 2019, 03:40:04 PM
About 80 wm2 gets reflected. Thus about 270 wm2 gets to earth. But none of this is relevant.

The graph I posted (with my addition) is a very simplistic tool to understand the warming or cooling potential for any place on earth at any time of year. Of course water creates big lags, and the warm moves around very asymmetrically in both water and air, but rather than trying to find reasons that it is stupid, try to just accept it as a general truth which is likely the best image out there showing heat balance though the seasons.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 04, 2019, 04:04:28 PM
<snip> try to just accept it as a general truth which is likely the best image out there showing heat balance though the seasons.
So we are supposed to take on faith your claims even when they are so transparently wrong?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 04, 2019, 04:10:40 PM
The graph I posted (with my addition) is a very simplistic tool to understand the warming or cooling potential for any place on earth at any time of year.
Extremely simple to the point of being totally useless. The graph could only be taken to indicate anything about warming potential on a planet without atmosphere or liquid water.

And since the graph has extremely little to say about the temperatures at different latitudes, adding a shaded-below-350 to it gives absolutely no extra information that could be applicable anywhere except, perhaps, in Yakutsk at slightly above 60 degrees north, in the middle of a continent, where it does freeze until May and starts freezing again in September.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Steven on August 04, 2019, 08:47:15 PM
Re the longer distance traveled through the atmosphere: At 30 degrees the distance is twice what it would be at 90 degrees. On the other hand, the troposphere in the tropics is twice as thick as in the arctic. So I guess that evens it out a bit?

No, it doesn't.  The sun at the North Pole is at an angle of only 17° above the horizon at this time of year.  That means that the light has to travel a longer distance through the atmosphere than at latitude 30°N even though the atmosphere in the Arctic is thinner than in the tropics.

The graph below is from Tealight's website, showing insolation at the surface for different latitudes.  This graph is quite a bit different from the top-of-atmosphere insolation graph that was posted upthread.  Unfortunately, Tealight gives no source for this graph on his website, so I'm not sure where he got the data from.

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/doc.html

(https://i.imgur.com/YJgQiye.png)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: petm on August 04, 2019, 11:55:07 PM
There are detailed calculations here:

https://www.itacanet.org/the-sun-as-a-source-of-energy/part-2-solar-energy-reaching-the-earths-surface/

(https://www.itacanet.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/oh-1024x512.png)

The chart above does not take into account absorption by the atmosphere. There are also calculations on the linked page dealing with that aspect.

(https://www.itacanet.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/am.png)

(https://www.itacanet.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/berefsc-1024x611.png)


___


Also this (which includes reference to textbook calculations):

http://almashriq.hiof.no/lebanon/600/610/614/solar-water/idrc/01-09.html

Intensity by latitude and season:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Falmashriq.hiof.no%2Flebanon%2F600%2F610%2F614%2Fsolar-water%2Fidrc%2Ffigure2.jpg&hash=92f4a00960a00d7a420ff53bd72c650b)

This (above and below) is for UV-A and the difference between seasons increases with increasing wavelength:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Falmashriq.hiof.no%2Flebanon%2F600%2F610%2F614%2Fsolar-water%2Fidrc%2Ffigure4.jpg&hash=20702a79e0c4cd5e2fab23045f00e770)


... Seems like there are plenty of answers to this question, but those answers are not simple.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: HapHazard on August 05, 2019, 04:37:50 AM
... Seems like there are plenty of answers to this question, but those answers are not simple.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CsVHBvoUEAA06lT.jpg)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on August 05, 2019, 06:18:28 AM
<snip> try to just accept it as a general truth which is likely the best image out there showing heat balance though the seasons.
So we are supposed to take on faith your claims even when they are so transparently wrong?

So transparently wrong that you can't even bother to say what exactly is wrong? It is definitely correct that the energy balance from insolation/radiation is near 350. WTF is your problem?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 05, 2019, 07:30:33 AM
Re the longer distance traveled through the atmosphere: At 30 degrees the distance is twice what it would be at 90 degrees. On the other hand, the troposphere in the tropics is twice as thick as in the arctic. So I guess that evens it out a bit?

No, it doesn't.  The sun at the North Pole is at an angle of only 17° above the horizon at this time of year.  That means that the light has to travel a longer distance through the atmosphere than at latitude 30°N even though the atmosphere in the Arctic is thinner than in the tropics.

The graph below is from Tealight's website, showing insolation at the surface for different latitudes.  This graph is quite a bit different from the top-of-atmosphere insolation graph that was posted upthread.  Unfortunately, Tealight gives no source for this graph on his website, so I'm not sure where he got the data from.

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/doc.html

(https://i.imgur.com/YJgQiye.png)
Just to point out that this graph shows only latitudes from 50 and over, while the "top of atmosphere" one shows 0, 30, 60 and 90 degrees latitude.

As for the distance through the atmosophere - the 30 degrees I talked about was a rough estimate for the angle of the sun at its highest in the Arctic (reaches max 23.5 at the North Pole itself).

So sunlight at 30 deegrees above horizon takes twice as long to reach the earth through an evenly thick atmosphere as would sunligt at 90 degrees. But since the atmosphere is only half as thick in the Arctic, it turns out that the sunlight at 30 degrees in the Artctic travels about the same distance through air as sunlight in the Tropics.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 05, 2019, 07:37:04 AM
<snip> try to just accept it as a general truth which is likely the best image out there showing heat balance though the seasons.
So we are supposed to take on faith your claims even when they are so transparently wrong?

So transparently wrong that you can't even bother to say what exactly is wrong? It is definitely correct that the energy balance from insolation/radiation is near 350. WTF is your problem?
I've already pointed out how extremely wrong your claim is that non-coastal areas north of 30 degrees will be freezing between the equinoxes. This is so far out as to be laughable.

And any attempts to claim that your graph (shown below) or the original, without the grey smudging, can be used to say anything about temperatures in other than a few extremely strangely located places like Yakutsk, is obviously wrong.

So that leads me to ask: Why did you think that adding your smudging to the graph made it any more "true"? The graph shows what it shows, in what way did you think that it was misleading and in need of correction?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 05, 2019, 07:45:42 AM
There are detailed calculations here:

https://www.itacanet.org/the-sun-as-a-source-of-energy/part-2-solar-energy-reaching-the-earths-surface/

Pretty complicated calculations, but seeing the captions beneath the main graph is perhaps interesting.

It is the total daily irradiation, i.e. it takes into account the number of hours of sunlight there are in a day, and it also takes into account the angle of incident.

As for absorbtion by the atmosphere, as I've pointed out, the troposphere in the Arctic is only half the thickness of that in the Tropics, and during high summer, anything above a 30 degrees sunlight angle in the Arctic is likely to travel a shorter distance through the atmosphere than sunlight falling in the tropics.

Not to mention that the Ozone layer is also a lot thinner over the Arctic, and the whole idea that the sunlight loses more energy in the Arctic due to longer distance travelled through the atmosphere seems to be losing ground rapidly.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on August 05, 2019, 04:22:18 PM
I've already pointed out how extremely wrong your claim is that non-coastal areas north of 30 degrees will be freezing between the equinoxes. This is so far out as to be laughable.

If the sun energy stabilized and the seasons stopped changing at any time during nov, dec, jan, or feb, all these cities (except Cairo, which is coastal) would freeze over. Starting to freeze is different than freezing. Same thing with the opposite in the Arctic. The north pole "starts to melt" in June (as far as energy balance is concerned), but there just isn't enough time.

Almost anywhere not coastal would eventually freeze if the wm2 was substantially below 350 long term. This is what I have been trying to say the whole time, and I made it very clear in the post quoted above. But you just want to continue being a derp.

So that leads me to ask: Why did you think that adding your smudging to the graph made it any more "true"? The graph shows what it shows, in what way did you think that it was misleading and in need of correction?

It doesn't need "correction", and I never suggested such. The reason I added the grey "smudging" was to show where/when there is energy surplus from solar insolation/radiation.

My turn: Why do you think there is anything misleading about what I posted? (And if you repeat the same nonsense about temperatures which I have addressed several times, you will reveal yourself as a intellectual dolt / intentional instigator. )
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on August 05, 2019, 04:24:13 PM
Maybe I should make it extra simple for the binntho's of the world:

Grey area = cooling time of year

Above grey area = warming time of year
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 05, 2019, 04:53:14 PM
Almost anywhere not coastal would eventually freeze if the wm2 was substantially below 350 long term. This is what I have been trying to say the whole time, and I made it very clear in the post quoted above.
Well perhaps you have been trying to say it, but it has proved remarkably difficult to get it out, what with all the nonsense and rudeness. Do you have any evidence to substantiate this claim?

As petm has pointed out, outgoing radiation is very variable but you seem to think that it isn't. Perhaps you'd like to elucidate?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 05, 2019, 05:04:11 PM
So that leads me to ask: Why did you think that adding your smudging to the graph made it any more "true"? The graph shows what it shows, in what way did you think that it was misleading and in need of correction?

It doesn't need "correction", and I never suggested such. The reason I added the grey "smudging" was to show where/when there is energy surplus from solar insolation/radiation.

Well, what did you mean by this?

This insolation graph gets posted from time to time, but I think it is missing a cruicial component for best understanding. So I added it. At approx 350, the insolation/radiation balance seems to be achieved.

followed by this:

Do you have a paper that you can quote to back this figure up?

Nah. It is just common sense. For several reasons. Everywhere in the world that isn't coastal starts to freeze under 350 and starts to melt above 350. Also, earth receives an average of about 350 wm2 overall, so it is basic logic that if earth isn't changing temperature, there is an equilibrium near 350.

If you print this out, it will be paper. Then you can use this to back up the figure. Good luck.

Big claims followed by a rather rude remark, setting the tone for the rest of the debate. Well done.

How about something that actually supports your claims?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Neven on August 05, 2019, 08:23:44 PM
GSY, don't call others stupid when you lose your patience.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: sailor on August 05, 2019, 08:29:40 PM
Can I use this thread for some mushroom psychedelia?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: sailor on August 05, 2019, 09:04:00 PM
The beauty of Worldview images.
There’s an immensity of broken ice, like 1 million km2, the size of France and Germany together, right there.
Hopefully this is not OT here, it doesn’t qualify for the image of the day, too ordinary they say.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Steven on August 05, 2019, 10:16:54 PM
So sunlight at 30 deegrees above horizon takes twice as long to reach the earth through an evenly thick atmosphere as would sunligt at 90 degrees. But since the atmosphere is only half as thick in the Arctic, it turns out that the sunlight at 30 degrees in the Artctic travels about the same distance through air as sunlight in the Tropics.

That could be a heuristic for summer solstice.  But it's already August, and the sun angle in the high Arctic is dropping quickly.

The sun at the North Pole is at an angle of only 17° above the horizon right now.   The path through the atmosphere is already 36% longer now than at summer solstice ( sin(23.5°)/sin(17°) ≈ 1.36 ).   At the end of August, the angle will be only 9° and the path will be 2.5 times longer than at solstice ( sin(23.5°)/sin(9°) ≈ 2.55).

This also shows up in the surface insolation graph I posted yesterday:

Top-of-atmosphere insolation at the North Pole at this time of year (5 August) is about 75% of its value at solstice, whereas surface insolation is about 60% of its value at solstice.  This discrepancy gets even larger in the next few weeks.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 06, 2019, 05:59:38 AM
So sunlight at 30 deegrees above horizon takes twice as long to reach the earth through an evenly thick atmosphere as would sunligt at 90 degrees. But since the atmosphere is only half as thick in the Arctic, it turns out that the sunlight at 30 degrees in the Artctic travels about the same distance through air as sunlight in the Tropics.

That could be a heuristic for summer solstice.  But it's already August, and the sun angle in the high Arctic is dropping quickly.
I quite agree, my point was precisely about what happens at the center of the graph, when insolation is at maximum in the Arctic. Whenever the graph gets posted during high summer, some people start saying things like "oh but the angle of incident is much higher" (yes, that's included in the calculations) and "but the sunlight travels much farther through the atmosphere" (no it doesn't, or at least not as much as people think).
Quote
The sun at the North Pole is at an angle of only 17° above the horizon right now.   The path through the atmosphere is already 36% longer now than at summer solstice ( sin(23.5°)/sin(17°) ≈ 1.36 ).   At the end of August, the angle will be only 9° and the path will be 2.5 times longer than at solstice ( sin(23.5°)/sin(9°) ≈ 2.55).

This also shows up in the surface insolation graph I posted yesterday:

Top-of-atmosphere insolation at the North Pole at this time of year (5 August) is about 75% of its value at solstice, whereas surface insolation is about 60% of its value at solstice.  This discrepancy gets even larger in the next few weeks.
I totally agree with everything you say!
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 07, 2019, 08:15:27 AM
Playing around with ENSO and NSIDC SIE minimums I came up with the following graph, it's difficult to see any correlation between the two.

Data from https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php and https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/longterm

With a bit of good will, a delayed reaction might be seen to be taking place after the 87 and 97/98 mega Ninos. It's however difficult to see 2007 and 2012 being affected by Ninos since the events preceding them were small and similar events in the past have not had any discernible effect.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: RikW on August 07, 2019, 08:58:30 AM
I don't think there is causality; it's our nature as humans to see patterns everywhere, even when there isn't any significant link
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 07, 2019, 12:56:19 PM
Does a La Nina precec a recovery? Well, I marked in blue where the stronges La Nina episodes were (and red shows where the stronges El Nino episodes are to be found). The vertical blue lines connect the deepest La Nina years with the corresponding SIE year.

Of the 6 blue lines, 3 precede a rise in SIE and 3 precede a fall. Rather inconclusive.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 07, 2019, 01:50:52 PM
The teleconnections are different in a different world - and the ice is certainly totally different these last 10 years than what it was before. But is the ENSO changing? The first graph shows the annual ENSO index average + trendline. There is practically no trend whatsoever, which surprised me given the large mega-El Nino recently.

The second graph shows decadal averages, and the ENSO fluctuation does seem to be calming down - again quite surprising given recent events.

Remember that the index is essentially a measure of sea surface temperatures in certain areas in the Pacific, and what with all the AGW and whatnot one would have thought that these graphs would show something quite different.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Archimid on August 07, 2019, 02:01:45 PM
ENSO is most certainly changing in ways that the index alone can't tell. Sort of of the same way ASI extent hides changes. The whole world is, sadly.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 07, 2019, 02:09:05 PM
ENSO is most certainly changing in ways that the index alone can't tell. Sort of of the same way ASI extent hides changes. The whole world is, sadly.
"Oh tempora, oh mores" as Cicero famously said. Similar lamentations, I've been told, can be found in Egyptian papyrii.

The world is always changing, and I am surprisingly generally rather happy with the changes I see. If it wasn't for AGW, which definitely looks bloody scary, I'd be generally a "the world is happily changing" kind of guy.

But has ENSO changed? It doesn't seem as if it has - the megaspike of 2016 could just be something that happens once every century irregardless of AGW. Do you have any evidence to the contrary?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: nanning on August 07, 2019, 05:10:27 PM
<snip>
The world is always changing, and I am surprisingly generally rather happy with the changes I see.
Are you a troll?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 07, 2019, 07:04:48 PM
<snip>
The world is always changing, and I am surprisingly generally rather happy with the changes I see.
Are you a troll?

Kind of a don't worry, everything looks good here. Sure we have that AGW stuff but there is no real reason to worry about any truly disastrous effects.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: philopek on August 07, 2019, 07:23:15 PM
Pragmatism is a feature not an illness.

Those who best adapt will be the survivors and they will be mostly among those who don't panic.

At least there is no reason to spit / bash on people who try to see not all lost or negative or do so by their very nature.

I always imagine how a really wise person with a real breakthrough idea would react in such an environment. If that person is really wise he/she will live with the bashing but if he/she would be only slightly less mature he/she would perhaps let the rest go down the river.

It feels sometimes like the arrogance of the mostly right who forgot for a moment that mostly is not 100% and will never be.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 07, 2019, 07:28:04 PM
Pragmatism is a feature not an illness.


Pragmatism is the behavior that allows a person to explain to those less informed just how hard and costly it would be to become carbon neutral by 2050 and dismisses Greta as a little girl who is blinded by her idealism.

Pragmatism in the face of AGW is going to get a lot of us killed.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: philopek on August 07, 2019, 07:36:56 PM
Pragmatism is a feature not an illness.


Pragmatism is the behavior that allows a person to explain to those less informed just how hard and costly it would be to become carbon neutral by 2050 and dismisses Greta as a little girl who is blinded by her idealism.

Pragmatism in the face of AGW is going to get a lot of us killed.

No problem, i disagree that pragmatism is responsible it's the human habit to suppress / repress uncomfortable truths or to deny them in favor of lower / higher interests.

Pragmatism is conscious while suppressing bad experiences and unpleasant facts is often, even mostly subconscious if no greed (lower interest) is involve.

Of course as I know that you know, this is very brief and rudimentary, this topic is huge (too huge for this place) I'm quite sure that after some time of personal exchange we would come to terms.

I just think we should stay open to the fact that people react on similar situations differently and it's not that easy to judge from reading a few lines that lack deeper insight in someones meaning that again would not be welcome here due to being TLTR.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Sterks on August 07, 2019, 08:15:02 PM
philopek, what is TLTR?
Sorry lolol just some misunderstanding that could/should be corrected, no bad will all good...
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on August 07, 2019, 08:32:51 PM
I thought why not look at correlations (other people have)? Mistake.

I looked at Arctic temperatures and Sept ice area (i.e. minima) 2000-2018.
Just got a mess (attached). The trend lines are only there to show how confused I got.
But if I just choose 2016, temperatures zoom up as sea ice minimum falls down.

So then I thought. Any link with Greenland melt?
So I used NSIDC interactive chart (link from Greenland Today) to look at melt in the years when Arctic sea ice melted a lot and the years when the Arctic sea melt was somewhat low.
2 graphs attached. Really messy again but maybe a connection, but not that striking.

Methinks definitely a case of " and that's all I'm going to say about that".

Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: be cause on August 07, 2019, 08:40:40 PM
TLTR ?   too long to read .. b.c.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: philopek on August 07, 2019, 08:44:28 PM
philopek, what is TLTR?
Sorry lolol just some misunderstanding that could/should be corrected, no bad will all good...

TLTR = Too Long To Read

I mostly use the term to express that there is much to say, that at times there are topis that fill entire bookshelves, often without a once and for all result or conclusion and somehow for me it contains the kind request to not weigh every letter on a microbalance because it would take too much to discuss something to the bottom ;)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Sterks on August 07, 2019, 09:14:46 PM
Got it  :)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Archimid on August 07, 2019, 09:35:57 PM
ENSO changes.

https://www.nature.com/collections/ljmwkghnst
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: uniquorn on August 08, 2019, 12:15:10 AM
The Barrow cam is STILL down...what a bummer.
I reckon they're up to something.....
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 08, 2019, 07:43:21 AM
ENSO changes.

https://www.nature.com/collections/ljmwkghnst

Good site. The science doesn't really seem to have reached a conclusion. I'd be very surprised if ENSO didn't change due to climate change, but so far the changes are elusive. This quote, from 2015 (i.e. before the mega-El Nino) is perhaps telling:

Quote from: https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2743
The frequency of extreme La Niña is also expected to increase in response to more extreme El Niños, an accelerated maritime continent warming and surface-intensified ocean warming. ENSO-related catastrophic weather events are thus likely to occur more frequently with unabated greenhouse-gas emissions. But model biases and recent observed strengthening of the Walker circulation highlight the need for further testing as new models, observations and insights become available.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 08, 2019, 07:52:34 AM
<snip>
The world is always changing, and I am surprisingly generally rather happy with the changes I see.
Are you a troll?

Well I don't feel particularly trollish. Perhaps being generally optimistic (and a bit too ready to jump when someone makes big claims without evidence) is what defines a troll?

In general, my take on the world is that it is constantly getting better, while sitting on top of a volcano that might or might not explode (i.e. a metaphor for AGW). Politically and socially we are generally moving in the right direction even if the current lancing of boils makes it difficult to believe.

The world is more peaceful, more people live decent lives than ever before, fewer people get killed violently than ever before etc. etc. (the USA is of course an outlier and has always been).

We are living through a real and profound revolution in communications which will have a huge effect (as have earlier communications revolutions), scientific discoveries are coming in at a strongly accelerating rate etc. etc.

And yes, over the entire thing hangs the sword of Damocles (another metaphor for AGW) and it's not to be ignored. But at the same time, life goes on, and the world is happily changing.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: nanning on August 08, 2019, 11:38:57 AM
I didn't think you are a troll binntho. I should have added a wink.

We just really really disagree on "constantly getting better", "Politically and socially we are generally moving in the right direction" and "The world is more peaceful, more people live decent lives than ever before".
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 08, 2019, 12:02:49 PM
I didn't think you are a troll binntho. I should have added a wink.

We just really really disagree on "constantly getting better", "Politically and socially we are generally moving in the right direction" and "The world is more peaceful, more people live decent lives than ever before".
Well, let's happily disagree then!  ;D
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Archimid on August 08, 2019, 12:31:19 PM
But has ENSO changed? It doesn't seem as if it has - the megaspike of 2016 could just be something that happens once every century irregardless of AGW. Do you have any evidence to the contrary?

Also Bintho:

Quote
I'd be very surprised if ENSO didn't change due to climate change, but so far the changes are elusive.

Which one should I believe is your opinion, the former or the later? The former gives the impression that ENSO is something simple and unchanging. It ignores the more complicated nature of ENSO, like shape, duration, intensity, teleconnections and lagging responses.

The later is a more sensible statement.

A few things in mind for your graphs. You compare ENSO to Sept minimum extent. It would be interesting to compare it to the Maximum extent and volume, the Bering and Pacific inner basin seas.

Again big changes should only show up in the last decade or so.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 08, 2019, 01:23:23 PM
Which one should I believe is your opinion, the former or the later? The former gives the impression that ENSO is something simple and unchanging. It ignores the more complicated nature of ENSO, like shape, duration, intensity, teleconnections and lagging responses.

The later is a more sensible statement.

Both statements are very true reflections of my "opinion" - i.e. I don't see any evidence but a priori I'd expect there to be some. The latter statement is what I expect, the former is what I see.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Archimid on August 08, 2019, 02:10:51 PM
Bintho, are you using a normalized ENSO index for your graphs?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Archimid on August 08, 2019, 03:03:49 PM
That may be why you don’t see change. The enso index you are using is normalized. The flat trend line you are using is a product of normalization not real.

It would be interesting to denormalize it invert it and over impose it over max and min extent, specially the Pacific side Arctic seas on this decade.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 08, 2019, 03:52:36 PM
That may be why you don’t see change. The enso index you are using is normalized. The flat trend line you are using is a product of normalization not real.

It would be interesting to denormalize it invert it and over impose it over max and min extent, specially the Pacific side Arctic seas on this decade.
I'm not sure - the figures are SST departures and I sort of naively assumed that they were depatures from the same baseline, but looking at what they actually say, it seems that the update the base line every 5 years.

Quote from: https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW)], based on centered 30-year base periods updated every 5 years. (https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_change.shtml)

So normalized - yes. Which raises certain suspicions. I'll see if I can't redo my plots with actual rather than normalized figures.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 08, 2019, 04:50:12 PM
I've redone my two graphs of the ENSO index, now with fixed baseline. Results more in line with expectations, although the trend (at 0.084 per decade) is significantly lower than the warming trend for the atmosphere for the same time (eg. 0.12 for HadCRUT).
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: grixm on August 09, 2019, 08:44:46 AM
Eye of a hurricane? No, this strange looking cloud is located in Baffin Bay!

(https://i.imgur.com/gUHyoDZ.jpg)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 09, 2019, 09:01:55 AM
Aliens?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: dnem on August 09, 2019, 05:20:41 PM
Killian wrote on the 2012 vs 2019 thread:

"You mean 7 years of data isn't enough to predict weather? That would b a wild assertion given the short-term nature of weather forecasting. I'm assuming you mean seven years of weather is not enough to forecast climate?

Either way, this would be incorrect. First, in any given year, the majore forcing for the ASI minima is weather, but overall the climatic changes are setting the context. I would suggest that climate forcing is changing so fast and at such magnitude, it is having noticeable yearly effects. Still, most of the year-to-year differences will be weather. Climate is found in the trends."

Sorry Killian, this statement makes no sense. Of course seven years is not enough to generate climatological data from which to predict the weather. Not even close.  No idea what you're trying to say.  The issue at hand was about the statistical validity of tossing out 2012 as an outlier when trying to think about what may be to come for the arctic.  The arctic is a rapidly transitioning system and there is no valid way to make predictions about what the next few years may bring.  We can look back at the years since 2007 and make some informed guesses.  That's about it.

Just look at Zach's heat chart of monthly ranks.  After two cold, cloudy Julys folks were ready to declare a new trend.  Not so much.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on August 12, 2019, 08:51:46 PM
There has been comment here and there about how the very high SSTs might delay the onset of freezing, both timing and speed.

My guess is there is a correlation between accumulated AWP and SSTs. Is there a correlation beteen AWP and SSTs and the beginning & speed of the freezing season? I had a quick look.

- couldn't find Arctic SST anomaly maps for late Arctic Summer over recent years,
- but we have Tealight's AWP anomaly graphs. 2012 and 2016 are the years with abnormally high cumulative AWP anomaly, 2016 being the highest.

So also tweaked a graph to show Arctic Sea Ice Extent August to December, highlighting 2012  and 2016. In neither year was there a stretching out of the minimum. Rather the reverse. But 2016 does show really slow refreeze from late October to early December.

2019 looks like being a new record year for Cumulative AWP anomaly. So if there is an effect, when will it take effect and how long and how significant will it be?



Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: DrTskoul on August 12, 2019, 09:19:31 PM
If only one could calculate the "actualized" AWP...
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: FishOutofWater on August 12, 2019, 09:28:18 PM
AWP and SST anomalies should directly correlate and it would be disturbing if there was no correlation. Obviously, there are other factors related to winds, currents and initial conditions, but the correlation looks strong this year. If that extra heat doesn't delay freezing, there's going to be a lot of heat stored below the surface of the ice. It a good bet we'll see a combination of the two.

Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: philopek on August 12, 2019, 09:33:35 PM
In neither year was there a stretching out of the minimum. Rather the reverse. But 2016 does

Great job as always, thanks.

As to the "reverse" part, that makes totally sense since the less ice remains, the more retreated, speak north, is the ice edge and therefore some of the open water will be exposed to really cold conditions way earlier than farther south.

In addition to that, the last stretch of melted ice, and the faster it melted the more is this the case, must have a significantly lower salinity due to the only recently melted ice that is less saline and recently melted regions are most probably a bit cooler SST wise than the stretches that melted earlier and had time to mix, increase salinity and eventually got some sunlight.

Those two factors and perhaps a few others make it somehow logical that the melt onset is a bit earlier and also covering a wider area a bit quicker to begin with. A later slow down like in 2016 makes also sense since the excess systemic (global) warmth with warmer winds and warmer ocean currents reaching farther north would  explain such a slowdown to quite some extent.

Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: oren on August 12, 2019, 10:57:31 PM
What philopek said. 2016 had a quick initial refreeze due to there being open water very far north and in the middle of the pack. Later it had a terrible refreeze, especially in the Chukchi.

In addition, check out 2018's strange behavior in October in the CAB. After being a mediocre year in mid-Sept, it broke records in mid-Oct.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 13, 2019, 06:00:14 AM
Great job Gerontocrat! And I agree with what philopek said.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: HapHazard on August 13, 2019, 11:07:17 AM
Yep, philopek nailed it.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: be cause on August 13, 2019, 12:43:17 PM
No worldview images today .. rather unusual .. I normally have my first daily look mid-morning . This is my first day without .. suffering withdrawl .. b.c.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: philopek on August 13, 2019, 03:15:11 PM
No worldview images today .. rather unusual .. I normally have my first daily look mid-morning . This is my first day without .. suffering withdrawl .. b.c.

Rammb's Natural Colors are working again FWIW for your needs, there are interesting news
i.e. McLure and more ;)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: CalamityCountdown on August 15, 2019, 01:13:22 AM
This is probably a silly analogy, but in comparing 2019 to 2012, the two upcoming dates of century drops in 2012 remind me of an elite marathoner that throws 4:30 miles at his (or her) opponent to try an shake them off. If 2019 extent stays close to 2012 extent through the two upcoming centuries, this melt season could eventually end up with more days at satellite era record lows. Scary times.   (Chart credit: Gerontocrat)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: DrTskoul on August 15, 2019, 01:16:28 AM
2019, still hangs on... let's see how much steam is left...
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: bluice on August 15, 2019, 09:38:27 AM
Not much has changed since June regarding the minimum extent record. 2019 is going for the 2nd place, but has a small chance of beating 2012's record.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: be cause on August 15, 2019, 11:00:28 AM
.. or as I would say .. not much has changed since March .. b.c.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: HapHazard on August 15, 2019, 07:19:57 PM
.. or as I would say .. not much has changed since March .. b.c.
Just keeps marching on.  ;D
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: pearscot on August 15, 2019, 07:29:03 PM
No worldview images today .. rather unusual .. I normally have my first daily look mid-morning . This is my first day without .. suffering withdrawl .. b.c.

SAME HERE!! Everything is down at the moment and it's killing me. The barrow ice cam hasn't updated since 8/1 and even this one isn't updated:

https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/freya1/

If I actually have to work at work today I'm going to be quite unhappy.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: DrTskoul on August 15, 2019, 08:18:01 PM
... oh the shakes and the chills...  ;D ;D
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: sark on August 16, 2019, 07:07:35 AM
What's the wave called that precesses about the North Pole about once every 7 days?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: petm on August 18, 2019, 09:03:33 PM
But entanglement is immediate - happens totally simultaneously, with information travelling at infinitely more than the speed of light.

As far as I understand it, entanglement does not involve propagation but simply uncovering a pre-existing state. But I'm no quantum physicist.

The reason that I mention water waves is that presumably that's how melt water is moved around the oceans.

Edit: This is relevant, showing a correlation of increased local/regional sea-level with increased river discharge: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1805428115 .
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: sark on August 19, 2019, 03:27:47 AM
This here is that 6000 thickness thing, anomaly, month by month.  rolling 5 year composite average.

the first 7 months have a 2019, the rest waiting.

If Aug-Sept 19 don't settle down, next chance is December for a +AO?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: sark on August 19, 2019, 06:35:42 AM
What is this retrograde high pressure wave on a 5-8 day cycle?  (try posting mp4)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: oren on August 19, 2019, 07:03:34 AM
A. Greenland indeed has a gravitational pull.  It affects water levels permanently around Greenland.
B. If Greenland ice disappeared, water levels would drop by tens of meters nearby, and the effect will be felt in a large area. Sounds science fiction but true.
C. Ireland tides therefore can rise due to many factors, but the factor that absolutely cannot cause them to rise is Greenland melt. Counterintuitive but true.
D. Greenland pulls not only ice, but also water. The water is "inclined" towards Greenland. Therefore imagining that this causes ice to flow over static water and stick to Greenland is wrong.
E. Kitchen ice cubes stick to each other because first they melt at the edge, then they touch, then the edges freeze together . And edges must be large comapred to the cube size. Only when all this happens will ice stick to its neighbor. This does not happen with ice floes in the Arctic in summer.
F. The place for raising such things is not the melting season thread, but the questions thread.

Am I the only one noticing the higher tides of late? Today in Ireland the tide was the highest Ive ever seen on the beach I went to in Sligo. 3 weeks ago I went to another beach and noticed some of the road had been taken by the sea. Is this related to the gigaton melting in Greenland and the Arctic? Is it already happening?

My theory is that Greenlands mass pulls the ice towards it.

I like your theory, it makes a lot of sense.

This is an article about the gravitational pull of Greenland. I also included a NASA video that shows the lowering of sea levels around Greenland as the ice cap melts, and the gravitational pull weakens. This could also maybe explain why sea levels in Ireland are going up?

Gravitational Attraction of Ice Sheets on the Sea
http://sealevelstudy.org/sea-change-science/whats-in-a-number/attractive-ice-sheets
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 19, 2019, 07:20:10 AM
But entanglement is immediate - happens totally simultaneously, with information travelling at infinitely more than the speed of light.
As far as I understand it, entanglement does not involve propagation but simply uncovering a pre-existing state. But I'm no quantum physicist.

Well neither am I - but according to Niels Bohr's view of how quantum works, there are is no "uncovering of pre-existing states" - that's almost what is meant by "quantum" in a physics context: A quanta is the very smallest "thingie" there can be, so there is no possibility of anything else being hidden or waiting to be uncovered inside.

And entangled pairs of particles (photons, electrons etc.) will change instantaneously when one of them is changed. This has been tested and the information is exchanged at a speed much higher than the speed of light. https://newatlas.com/quantum-entanglement-speed-10000-faster-light/26587/

As for gravity, the general consensus seems to be that it travels at the speed of light - a gravitational wave from a spiralling neutron star can be measured at almost the same time as the gamma rays hit.

Quantum physics is very interesting in that they allow for (and have repeatedly been tested for) things like instantaneousness, true randomness, and cause-less events. All things that do not exist outside the realms of quantum physics (as far as we know!)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: nanning on August 19, 2019, 11:03:47 AM
<snip>But entanglement is immediate - happens totally simultaneously, with information travelling at infinitely more than the speed of light.

Causality is fundamental!
Information cannot move faster than lightspeed. Otherwise nasty paradoxes arise.

@petm You are correct but it does not uncover a pre-existing state. Observation (measurement) of one of the particles collapses the entanglement wavefunction. The entangled particle far away is now no longer entangled and has the same state as the observed one. If you take a peek at one, you simultaneously take a peek at the other(s).
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 19, 2019, 11:15:18 AM
<snip>But entanglement is immediate - happens totally simultaneously, with information travelling at infinitely more than the speed of light.

Causality is fundamental!
Information cannot move faster than lightspeed. Otherwise nasty paradoxes arise.

Well, not in the quntum world!

Quantum events, such as the decay of a radioactive atom, happens without any cause. There is absolutely no way to predict the decay (neither theoretically or practically), therefore there is absolutely no way that there could be any causality behind the event of an atom decaying.

In other words, an event without a cause!

The speed of information flow in the Quantum world has apparently been measured at having a lower limit of 10.000 times the speed of light (https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/150207-chinese-physicists-measure-speed-of-einsteins-spooky-action-at-a-distance-at-least-10000-times-faster-than-light)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 19, 2019, 11:19:02 AM
@petm You are correct but it does not uncover a pre-existing state. Observation (measurement) of one of the particles collapses the entanglement wavefunction. The entangled particle far away is now no longer entangled and has the same state as the observed one. If you take a peek at one, you simultaneously take a peek at the other(s).
But since the outcome of the collapse is non-predictable, this becomes a good example of information travelling instantaneosly, without predetermined correlation.

(The postcard example is often used to describe instantaneous information travel with predetermined correlation. If I send two postcars, one with a cat to nanning and one with a dog to petm, then the first one to look at his card will know instantaneously what the other has got).
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gandul on August 19, 2019, 02:16:39 PM
Found no "Coriolis" mention in this page. Nor "Transpolar"
Fresh water is up (salty water down)
Fresh water and ice run toward the Fram. Why? Because of two reasons:
 - Dominating transpolar drift pushes ice and water against CAA/Greenland.
 - Fram is the greatest outlet for this pushed water/ice at the surface. (How different climate would be without the CAA in the middle. Ice would escape so soon. Blue ocean. BOOM.)
Then Coriolis force looks toward Greenland for ice/water wanting to escape the Arctic thru Fram. The current bends around Greenland at Fram thanks to Coriolis force too.

Therefore we have two major "attractors" that force ice/cold fresh water to stick to Greenland: Transpolar winds/drift and Coriolis force.

None of it is gravity.

As an example of the nonsense of this gravitational pull theory, this is Kane Basin (Nares Strait outlet). At the right, Greenland. At the left, Elles-whatever, another island with much less gravitational pull. These are from June 4 to June 9, I think.

When the Nares export is really going, the ice and the water from the Arctic tend to stick toward their right (Elles-whatever), staying AWAY from the Greenland side.

Anti-gravity?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Neven on August 19, 2019, 03:55:46 PM
Comment from new member was in the wrong thread:

This is an article about the gravitational pull of Greenland. I also included a NASA video that shows the lowering of sea levels around Greenland as the ice cap melts, and the gravitational pull weakens. This could also maybe explain why sea levels in Ireland are going up?

Gravitational Attraction of Ice Sheets on the Sea
http://sealevelstudy.org/sea-change-science/whats-in-a-number/attractive-ice-sheets

We're getting OT again but I say greenland is raising and not the water is lowering, i discussed this before over many years and never reached consensus. Those who believe some theories and papers as sacrosanct cannot be convinced and the same with the other side.

Either way thanks for the input, never wrong to document a point.
Hi philopek. I agree that sea level changes because of the gravity of Greenland is totally OT, but the reason I posted this was to prove that the Greenland ice sheet does have a large gravitational pull on things. And so the point I'm making is that it's not unreasonable to think that the Greenland ice sheet is "pulling" on ice that's floating on the arctic ocean. It's like 2 ice cubes sticking together. This would explain why MYI can always be found closest to the North American coast. I believe that's because the largest ice mass is located on the pole. And the pole is located closest to Greenland. So I can't imagine that these two ice massas wouldn't have a pull on eachother.

A counterclaim to my theory is that water has more mass than ice. That's why ice floats, right? And so why would Greenland attract the ice instead of the more massive water?

I'm not sure this is entirely OT. It probably is a little, but it belongs in the melting season I think because my theory does have an effect on ice movement. But I'd be happy to discuss this somewhere else.

I know this is OT, but its also just so wrong that it needs to be corrected in a science forum. One water is more dense than ice, if you take a kilogram of water and freeze it, it is still 1 kg of frozen water it did not lose any mass. That is why it floats. Second, the melting of Greenland's ice sheet this year alone will probably raise sea level by ~ 2mm (and that is probably generous as its rising an average of 3mm per year https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/)  it is definitely in no way shape or form the cause of a high tide in Ireland. And third, there are multiple reasons that the sea ice edge sticks to Greenland , the "Gravitational effect of Greenland" is at the bottom of that list.

Sorry, but I don't think people should read through this forum and learn just bad basic science and physics. End OT.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: oren on August 19, 2019, 04:17:13 PM
Welcome tolfer10, and you are absolutely correct in your response.
It is quite a challenge to handle comments that are OT and scientifically wrong - to shut up is bad, to continue the OT derailing is bad too.

Note: thanks also to gandul for mentioning Coriolis and Transpolar drift.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: stjuuv on August 19, 2019, 04:21:45 PM
A. Greenland indeed has a gravitational pull.  It affects water levels permanently around Greenland.
B. If Greenland ice disappeared, water levels would drop by tens of meters nearby, and the effect will be felt in a large area. Sounds science fiction but true.
Do you have an actual scientific reference to back this up?

As a back of the envelope calculation, taking the mass of the entire Greenland ice sheet and assuming a best case distance from the centre of mass of about 750km at the Greenland shore, the gravitational attraction comes by at about 11 orders of magnitude less than the gravitational attraction of the earth and about 5 orders of magnitude less than the gravitational pull of the moon.

I would be very interested in seeing how this could translate to tens of meters of water column displacement, considering that the tidal amplitude caused by the moon is only about 0.5 meters, and is amplified only due to other variables.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Freegrass on August 19, 2019, 04:35:32 PM
A. Greenland indeed has a gravitational pull.  It affects water levels permanently around Greenland.
B. If Greenland ice disappeared, water levels would drop by tens of meters nearby, and the effect will be felt in a large area. Sounds science fiction but true.
C. Ireland tides therefore can rise due to many factors, but the factor that absolutely cannot cause them to rise is Greenland melt. Counterintuitive but true.
D. Greenland pulls not only ice, but also water. The water is "inclined" towards Greenland. Therefore imagining that this causes ice to flow over static water and stick to Greenland is wrong.
Thank you for explaining this so clearly Oren. That makes absolute sense to me what you are saying. Thanks for clearing that up for me! It's always good to learn something new, like this;
Quote
Kitchen ice cubes stick to each other because first they melt at the edge, then they touch, then the edges freeze together . And edges must be large comapred to the cube size. Only when all this happens will ice stick to its neighbor. This does not happen with ice floes in the Arctic in summer.
I guess I'm at the right place to learn everything there is to know about ice.  ;D

Quote
F. The place for raising such things is not the melting season thread, but the questions thread.

My apology. I thought it was relevant.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: pikaia on August 19, 2019, 04:44:44 PM


As a back of the envelope calculation, taking the mass of the entire Greenland ice sheet and assuming a best case distance from the centre of mass of about 750km at the Greenland shore, the gravitational attraction comes by at about 11 orders of magnitude less than the gravitational attraction of the earth and about 5 orders of magnitude less than the gravitational pull of the moon.

Your calculations are wrong. The mass of the earth is 6e12 GT, the mass of the Greenland ice is 3e6 GT,  a ratio of only 2 million. Also, the ice is closer than the centre of the Earth by an order of magnitude, so the gravity is only different by a factor of ~20,000.
A slope of 1 in 20,000 over 2000Km amounts to a rise of 100 metres.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Freegrass on August 19, 2019, 04:49:27 PM
I know this is OT, but its also just so wrong that it needs to be corrected in a science forum. One water is more dense than ice, if you take a kilogram of water and freeze it, it is still 1 kg of frozen water it did not lose any mass. That is why it floats.
Sorry, but I don't think people should read through this forum and learn just bad basic science and physics. End OT.
I guess I'm a little rusty on my physics lessons, so my apology if this is a stupid question, but isn't mass calculated by volume? 1m3 of water weighs more that 1m3 of ice, so doesn't that mean that the mass of ice is lower than the mass of water?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: cognitivebias2 on August 19, 2019, 05:01:03 PM


As a back of the envelope calculation, taking the mass of the entire Greenland ice sheet and assuming a best case distance from the centre of mass of about 750km at the Greenland shore, the gravitational attraction comes by at about 11 orders of magnitude less than the gravitational attraction of the earth and about 5 orders of magnitude less than the gravitational pull of the moon.

Your calculations are wrong. The mass of the earth is 6e12 GT, the mass of the Greenland ice is 3e6 GT,  a ratio of only 2 million. Also, the ice is closer than the centre of the Earth by an order of magnitude, so the gravity is only different by a factor of ~20,000.
A slope of 1 in 20,000 over 2000Km amounts to a rise of 100 metres.

Thanks Pikaia.


Are you saying the current level of the sea by Greenland would drop by 100m if the ice were removed?  (Not melted, just removed).
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Freegrass on August 19, 2019, 05:09:56 PM
If all the ice of Greenland would be removed, the land would rise, and the sea level would drop. But I wouldn't know by how much.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 19, 2019, 05:11:56 PM
I know this is OT, but its also just so wrong that it needs to be corrected in a science forum. One water is more dense than ice, if you take a kilogram of water and freeze it, it is still 1 kg of frozen water it did not lose any mass. That is why it floats.
Sorry, but I don't think people should read through this forum and learn just bad basic science and physics. End OT.
I guess I'm a little rusty on my physics lessons, so my apology if this is a stupid question, but isn't mass calculated by volume? 1m3 of water weighs more that 1m3 of ice, so doesn't that mean that the mass of ice is lower than the mass of water?
You are thinking of specific mass, which is indeed a product of mass and volume.

The mass of an object is only partly related to the weight of the object (weight being a product of gravity and mass), but given the same gravitational pull, 1kg of floating water will still have the same weight and the same mass after it freezes (~9.81 N in both cases).
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 19, 2019, 05:15:43 PM
If all the ice of Greenland would be removed, the land would rise, and the sea level would drop. But I wouldn't know by how much.

Isostatic movement would cause the Greenland landmass to rise if the ice was removed. This however will not cause sea levels to drop (except of course locally). Another effect is that the surrounding seafloor (and to a much lesser extent the continents) will sink as the Greenland landmass rises.

Local sea level drops are still ongoing in Scotland, Northern Scandinavia and I beleieve in Canada and Alaska, the land still being on the up and up after the last major glaciation.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: pikaia on August 19, 2019, 05:24:16 PM

Are you saying the current level of the sea by Greenland would drop by 100m if the ice were removed?  (Not melted, just removed).

That is the figure that I have seen, presumably from a more precise calculation.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: nanning on August 19, 2019, 05:26:45 PM
Sorry to interrupt the 'meaningless chatter'.  8)
One last response to binntho: Please be aware of the context of quantum.
And the correspondence principle (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correspondence_principle).

As you were  :)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Freegrass on August 19, 2019, 05:29:02 PM
Isostatic movement would cause the Greenland landmass to rise if the ice was removed. This however will not cause sea levels to drop (except of course locally).
I meant locally of course. Global sea levels would rise by 7 meter I believe if the entire Greenland ice sheet would melt?

Quote
Local sea level drops are still ongoing in Scotland, Northern Scandinavia and I beleieve in Canada and Alaska, the land still being on the up and up after the last major glaciation.
Wow. I didn't know that.

I have another theory I might as well put on the table now.

With all the ice melting in the world, from glaciers to ice sheets, and the water levels rising in the oceans, one could say that the forces on the earth's crust are changing. I believe that these changing forces on the earth's crust will cause more earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Is that a crazy theory, or could there be some truth in this?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 19, 2019, 05:53:53 PM
Sorry to interrupt the 'meaningless chatter'.  8)
One last response to binntho: Please be aware of the context of quantum.
And the correspondence principle (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correspondence_principle).

As you were  :)
Interrupt at will! I'm not sure what you mean by "context of quantum", but Niels Bohr (who was also the author of the Correspondence principle) was very clear on stating that a quanta is the smallest there can be.

So a quanta (or quantum state) cannot contain anything hidden, any extra capabilities or physical laws. When a quantum wave collapses, there is no predicting the outcome because there is no causal link between the collapse, or anything that caused the collapse, and the specific outcome.

So if two entangled particles change because one of them is measured (the waveform collapses), the other has to "learn" which state the first one collapsed to. This is information, and it travels instantaneously (theoretically) or at least 10.000 times faster than light (as measured).

The world at the time of the Big Bang was governed by quantum physics, so if we follow that logic, the world was created without a primal cause (it was simply a random collapse of a wave function).
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: dnem on August 19, 2019, 06:06:57 PM
With all the ice melting in the world, from glaciers to ice sheets, and the water levels rising in the oceans, one could say that the forces on the earth's crust are changing. I believe that these changing forces on the earth's crust will cause more earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Is that a crazy theory, or could there be some truth in this?

Not crazy at all. Tons have been written on this, e.g.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/melting-glaciers-are-wreaking-havoc-earths-crust-180960226/
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: petm on August 19, 2019, 06:16:37 PM
But entanglement is immediate - happens totally simultaneously, with information travelling at infinitely more than the speed of light.
As far as I understand it, entanglement does not involve propagation but simply uncovering a pre-existing state. But I'm no quantum physicist.
And entangled pairs of particles (photons, electrons etc.) will change instantaneously when one of them is changed. This has been tested and the information is exchanged at a speed much higher than the speed of light. https://newatlas.com/quantum-entanglement-speed-10000-faster-light/26587/

On the other hand:
Quote
However, the far more likely option is that relativity is correct. In that case, the strong ban on faster-than-light communication would rule out the possibility of faster-than-light transfer of information encoded in hidden variables, and force us to deal with nonlocality. Once again, it would seem that local realism and relativity are incompatible notions in the quantum world.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2012/10/quantum-entanglement-shows-that-reality-cant-be-local/

It seems like there is debate over this, at least if these news reports are accurate. Quantum physics is way outside my realm of understanding (aside from the popular science aspects) and can perhaps only be "understood" using specialized advanced mathematics, not human intuition.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: stjuuv on August 19, 2019, 06:20:13 PM
As a back of the envelope calculation, taking the mass of the entire Greenland ice sheet and assuming a best case distance from the centre of mass of about 750km at the Greenland shore, the gravitational attraction comes by at about 11 orders of magnitude less than the gravitational attraction of the earth and about 5 orders of magnitude less than the gravitational pull of the moon.
Your calculations are wrong. The mass of the earth is 6e12 GT, the mass of the Greenland ice is 3e6 GT,  a ratio of only 2 million. Also, the ice is closer than the centre of the Earth by an order of magnitude, so the gravity is only different by a factor of ~20,000.
A slope of 1 in 20,000 over 2000Km amounts to a rise of 100 metres.
I stand corrected, thank you!

However, I would still appreciate any references  :)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 19, 2019, 06:22:51 PM
It seems like there is debate over this, at least if these news reports are accurate. Quantum physics is way outside my realm of understanding (aside from the popular science aspects) and can perhaps only be "understood" using specialized advanced mathematics, not human intuition.

Well put. ;D
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: petm on August 19, 2019, 06:31:58 PM
A. Greenland indeed has a gravitational pull.  It affects water levels permanently around Greenland.
B. If Greenland ice disappeared, water levels would drop by tens of meters nearby, and the effect will be felt in a large area. Sounds science fiction but true.
Do you have an actual scientific reference to back this up?

Quote
When Greenland melts, places as far away as Norway and Scotland could actually see the sea level fall by as much as 50 meters. “But you pay the price somewhere,” Mitrovica said. In the Southern Hemisphere, you get more [sea level rise] than you bargained for.” The same counterbalancing effect holds for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. If it were to collapse, the seas would rise the highest near Washington, D.C., and Northern California.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/02/how-melting-ice-sheet-could-actually-lower-sea-level-some-places
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 19, 2019, 06:34:41 PM
As a back of the envelope calculation, taking the mass of the entire Greenland ice sheet and assuming a best case distance from the centre of mass of about 750km at the Greenland shore, the gravitational attraction comes by at about 11 orders of magnitude less than the gravitational attraction of the earth and about 5 orders of magnitude less than the gravitational pull of the moon.
Your calculations are wrong. The mass of the earth is 6e12 GT, the mass of the Greenland ice is 3e6 GT,  a ratio of only 2 million. Also, the ice is closer than the centre of the Earth by an order of magnitude, so the gravity is only different by a factor of ~20,000.
A slope of 1 in 20,000 over 2000Km amounts to a rise of 100 metres.
I stand corrected, thank you!

However, I would still appreciate any references  :)

https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/25988300.pdf

I found this paper, doesn't really answer the calculations, but seems to indicate that sea level is falling by up to 0.8 mm/year close to Greenland with ice loss at 165Gt/year.

The same ice loss causes rises of up to 0.8 in other areas of the oceans, particularly in the Southern and Pacific oceans.

So if the entire ice sheet were to melt, a global 7 m sea level rise, but a localized 7 m sea level fall closest to Greenland?

Here's another short article with a fantastic picture (albeit not of an ice sheet), https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/02/how-melting-ice-sheet-could-actually-lower-sea-level-some-places

Quote
Right now, that ice is a huge weight pushing down Earth’s crust in and around Greenland. So when it’s gone, that land will pop up. An intact ice sheet also has a noticeable gravitational pull, which attracts water to the region. No ice means that water will rush away. Both of those effects actually add up to lower sea levels in the area right around the former ice sheet, Mitrovica said. When Greenland melts, places as far away as Norway and Scotland could actually see the sea level fall by as much as 50 meters.

Sounds pretty far-fetched to me! But here is another eminent scientist:

Quote from: http://nautil.us/issue/62/systems/why-our-intuition-about-sea_level-rise-is-wrong-rp
So if the Greenland ice sheet were to catastrophically collapse tomorrow, the sea level in Iceland, Newfoundland, Sweden, Norway—all within this 2,000 kilometer radius of the Greenland ice sheet—would fall. It might have a 30 to 50 meter drop at the shore of Greenland.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 19, 2019, 06:35:08 PM
Crossposting with petm ...  8)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: petm on August 19, 2019, 06:38:45 PM
Crossposting with petm ...  8)

 :D

Another more detailed reference on local sea level effects of melting ice sheets (and one can of course find additional ones in the Introduction section of this one):
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0465.1

(https://journals.ametsoc.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/ams/journals/content/clim/2018/15200442-31.9/jcli-d-17-0465.1/20180410/images/large/jcli-d-17-0465.1-f4.jpeg)

(NB: Gander is in Newfoundland, Canada.)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: sailor on August 19, 2019, 07:10:49 PM
Back to the problem of ice being lovely attracted to Greenland. From first principles (Newtonian):

Gravitation: a conservative force from which a potential energy field can be derived.
Ideally, water fills the oceans following a constant iso-potential surface. It will be almost horizontal, but in some places with more gravitational pull, the level will be depressed, and in others, will be higher than average.
This is a static effect. Earth gravity variations will not affect anything that floats over a iso-potential surface because these variations have already been accounted for in the level variations of the iso-surface. Nothing that lies in this iso-potential surface will feel gravitational pull parallel to the iso-potential surface. BECAUSE BY DEFINITION THE GRAVITATIONAL FORCE IS PERPENTICULAR TO THIS SURFACE. And in the case of an ice block, this is balanced by buoyancy force due to the water being denser than ice.
Same happens with earth inertial centrifugal force, proportional to the distance to the earth axis. It can be derived from a potential field, which combined, distorts a little bit the gravitational iso-potential surfaces.

Coriolis inertial force, however, is the tricky one, since this cannot be made a conservative force, it depends on the relative velocity of the ice block with respect to the Earth.

The coriolis force appears in all kinds of interesting problems of the Arctic. I would recommend to read about it rather than quantum mechanics (in the context of the Arctic). It's less attractive to discuss while smoking a joint and looking at your gin-tonic ice cubes sticking at the sides than, say, quantum mechanics paradoxes and dragons.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: stjuuv on August 19, 2019, 07:12:56 PM
https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/25988300.pdf

I found this paper, doesn't really answer the calculations, but seems to indicate that sea level is falling by up to 0.8 mm/year close to Greenland with ice loss at 165Gt/year.

The same ice loss causes rises of up to 0.8 in other areas of the oceans, particularly in the Southern and Pacific oceans.

So if the entire ice sheet were to melt, a global 7 m sea level rise, but a localized 7 m sea level fall closest to Greenland?

Here's another short article with a fantastic picture (albeit not of an ice sheet), https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/02/how-melting-ice-sheet-could-actually-lower-sea-level-some-places

Quote
Right now, that ice is a huge weight pushing down Earth’s crust in and around Greenland. So when it’s gone, that land will pop up. An intact ice sheet also has a noticeable gravitational pull, which attracts water to the region. No ice means that water will rush away. Both of those effects actually add up to lower sea levels in the area right around the former ice sheet, Mitrovica said. When Greenland melts, places as far away as Norway and Scotland could actually see the sea level fall by as much as 50 meters.

Sounds pretty far-fetched to me! But here is another eminent scientist:

Quote from: http://nautil.us/issue/62/systems/why-our-intuition-about-sea_level-rise-is-wrong-rp
So if the Greenland ice sheet were to catastrophically collapse tomorrow, the sea level in Iceland, Newfoundland, Sweden, Norway—all within this 2,000 kilometer radius of the Greenland ice sheet—would fall. It might have a 30 to 50 meter drop at the shore of Greenland.
Thanks!
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: tolfer10 on August 19, 2019, 07:26:07 PM
Back to the problem of ice being lovely attracted to Greenland. From first principles (Newtonian):

Gravitation: a conservative force from which a potential energy field can be derived.
Ideally, water fills the oceans following a constant iso-potential surface. It will be almost horizontal, but in some places with more gravitational pull, the level will be depressed, and in others, will be higher than average.
This is a static effect. Earth gravity variations will not affect anything that floats over a iso-potential surface because these variations have already been accounted for in the level variations of the iso-surface. Nothing that lies in this iso-potential surface will feel gravitational pull parallel to the iso-potential surface. BECAUSE BY DEFINITION THE GRAVITATIONAL FORCE IS PERPENTICULAR TO THIS SURFACE. And in the case of an ice block, this is balanced by buoyancy force due to the water being denser than ice.
Same happens with earth inertial centrifugal force, proportional to the distance to the earth axis. It can be derived from a potential field, which combined, distorts a little bit the gravitational iso-potential surfaces.

Coriolis inertial force, however, is the tricky one, since this cannot be made a conservative force, it depends on the relative velocity of the ice block with respect to the Earth.

The coriolis force appears in all kinds of interesting problems of the Arctic. I would recommend to read about it rather than quantum mechanics (in the context of the Arctic). It's less attractive to discuss while smoking a joint and looking at your gin-tonic ice cubes sticking at the sides than, say, quantum mechanics paradoxes and dragons.

The best way to think about it in a visual is go sit off the coast of any large landmass in a boat. The gravity of the landmass is not pulling you toward shore. Better hope for a stiff breeze.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: johnm33 on August 19, 2019, 10:00:05 PM
Ice, and any fresher water escaping the Arctic [through Fram] on the surface is going to hug the Greenland coast because it has to be accelerated by 17mph/27kph for every degree it moves south only contact with an immovable object will do that.
(https://68.media.tumblr.com/f6959257bf4c7b28be5a0da1ae16a52a/tumblr_mzv5b7Sljz1s3dn7vo1_1280.png)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: oren on August 19, 2019, 10:59:10 PM
Freegrass, glad I could be of help, though it scares me that people learn about ice from me... all I know comes from this forum (apart from my general physics studies).
stjuuv, I have posted several references a few months ago in one of the threads, but not sure in which one.
Thanks to those who brought references and calculations.

Re isostatic rebound, it's an additional effect over the gravitational one. The center land rises, the sides sink, so apparent local sea level drops. This in addition to the drops caused by loss of local gravity.

Re the moon, if it was stuck in one place relative to Earth I am sure the (permanent) tide would be higher. But in any case, good calcs are better than intuiton.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: gerontocrat on August 19, 2019, 11:02:47 PM
I posted this on the wrong thread. and Oren has said it already - ho hum, it's late

I read somewhere that after the last glaciation, in most places land rose, but in other places sunk.

I am not talking about changes in sea level but isostatic rebound.

Attached is my absolutely awful graphic about it.

Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on August 19, 2019, 11:13:24 PM
Oh, this should be here too...

Ups and downs from PGR
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on August 19, 2019, 11:23:03 PM
Back to the problem of ice being lovely attracted to Greenland. From first principles (Newtonian):

Gravitation: a conservative force from which a potential energy field can be derived.
Ideally, water fills the oceans following a constant iso-potential surface. It will be almost horizontal, but in some places with more gravitational pull, the level will be depressed, and in others, will be higher than average.
This is a static effect. Earth gravity variations will not affect anything that floats over a iso-potential surface because these variations have already been accounted for in the level variations of the iso-surface. Nothing that lies in this iso-potential surface will feel gravitational pull parallel to the iso-potential surface. BECAUSE BY DEFINITION THE GRAVITATIONAL FORCE IS PERPENTICULAR TO THIS SURFACE. And in the case of an ice block, this is balanced by buoyancy force due to the water being denser than ice.
Same happens with earth inertial centrifugal force, proportional to the distance to the earth axis. It can be derived from a potential field, which combined, distorts a little bit the gravitational iso-potential surfaces.

Coriolis inertial force, however, is the tricky one, since this cannot be made a conservative force, it depends on the relative velocity of the ice block with respect to the Earth.

The coriolis force appears in all kinds of interesting problems of the Arctic. I would recommend to read about it rather than quantum mechanics (in the context of the Arctic). It's less attractive to discuss while smoking a joint and looking at your gin-tonic ice cubes sticking at the sides than, say, quantum mechanics paradoxes and dragons.

The geoid is a map of the equipotential surface, represented as a departure from a reference ellipsoid (the mathematical approximation for the earth). The equipotential surface includes rotational effects. It is changing slowly, from ongoing PGR and ice melt. As sis says, since it is an equipotential surface by definition gravity is always perpendicular to a tangent to the surface.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: sailor on August 19, 2019, 11:57:16 PM
Back to the problem of ice being lovely attracted to Greenland. From first principles (Newtonian):

Gravitation: a conservative force from which a potential energy field can be derived

The geoid is a map of the equipotential surface, represented as a departure from a reference ellipsoid (the mathematical approximation for the earth). The equipotential surface includes rotational effects. It is changing slowly, from ongoing PGR and ice melt. As sis says, since it is an equipotential surface by definition gravity is always perpendicular to a tangent to the surface.
Yes. Thank you Rox!
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Freegrass on August 20, 2019, 04:33:57 AM
Earth gravity variations will not affect anything that floats over a iso-potential surface because these variations have already been accounted for in the level variations of the iso-surface. Nothing that lies in this iso-potential surface will feel gravitational pull parallel to the iso-potential surface. BECAUSE BY DEFINITION THE GRAVITATIONAL FORCE IS PERPENTICULAR TO THIS SURFACE.
Thank you Sailor and everyone else! I get it now. I don't have to lose any sleep over this anymore. :D

With all the ice melting in the world, from glaciers to ice sheets, and the water levels rising in the oceans, one could say that the forces on the earth's crust are changing. I believe that these changing forces on the earth's crust will cause more earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Is that a crazy theory, or could there be some truth in this?

Not crazy at all. Tons have been written on this, e.g.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/melting-glaciers-are-wreaking-havoc-earths-crust-180960226/
Awesome article Dnem! I'm so happy to find out my theory isn't that crazy after all. :)

Quote
...recent melting is 20-30 times more likely to trigger volcanic eruptions in places like Iceland and Greenland.

I'm still waiting for the Katla volcano to blow. Wasn't that supposed to happen within 2 years of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 20, 2019, 05:28:03 AM
I posted this on the wrong thread. and Oren has said it already - ho hum, it's late

I read somewhere that after the last glaciation, in most places land rose, but in other places sunk.

I am not talking about changes in sea level but isostatic rebound.

Attached is my absolutely awful graphic about it.

Awful but expressive! I have read similar things re. isostatic rebound, the presumable explanation being that the mantle underneath the continents can be thought of as a slow-flowing liquid (which is why the crust can move up or down when a glacier grows or diminishes). So when a continental crust rises, mantle material follow behind to fill the gap underneath, and this causes other crustal areas to sink.

The opposite effect apparently caused significant land lift in mid-latitude and tropical islands during the deepest glacial periods. The huge northern ice shield pushed down on the continents, the mantle moved south and the ocean crust is easier to lift than continents. Hence islands being pushed up.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: KiwiGriff on August 20, 2019, 05:30:15 AM
Quote
Earth gravity variations will not affect anything that floats over a iso-potential surface because these variations have already been accounted for in the level variations of the iso-surface. Nothing that lies in this iso-potential surface will feel gravitational pull parallel to the iso-potential surface. BECAUSE BY DEFINITION THE GRAVITATIONAL FORCE IS PERPENTICULAR TO THIS SURFACE.
Umm the shouty bits do not make it more true.
The mass of the Greenland ice sheet is above your theoretical surface.
The ice sheet has a gravitational pull perpendicular to its mass .
When the ice is gone the gravitational effects in the local area change.
Lowering  the surface of the water nearby.
The same effect will happen in antarctic resulting  the polar sea levels falling and higher seas  the nearer you get to the equator.

http://sealevelstudy.org/sea-change-science/whats-in-a-number/attractive-ice-sheets
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 20, 2019, 05:34:53 AM

Quote
...recent melting is 20-30 times more likely to trigger volcanic eruptions in places like Iceland and Greenland.

I'm still waiting for the Katla volcano to blow. Wasn't that supposed to happen within 2 years of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption?

Don't know about volcanic eruptions in Greenland, the changes of that are very low (but I won't say that it couldn't happen if the ice shield disappeared completely).

Under the big Vatnajokul glacier in Iceland, volcanic activity has gone up but nowhere near 20-30 times - perhaps if all the glacier melted?

Katla on the other hand is long overdue, and every autumn earthquake and geothermal activity apparently increases as the ice melts and the weight of the overlying glacier diminishes. So one should have thought that given the general diminishing of the glacier these past decades, the volcano should blow. But then again, predicting volcanic eruptions has never been a very profitable line of work.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Killian on August 20, 2019, 01:40:40 PM
Killian wrote on the 2012 vs 2019 thread:

"You mean 7 years of data isn't enough to predict weather? That would b a wild assertion given the short-term nature of weather forecasting. I'm assuming you mean seven years of weather is not enough to forecast climate?

"Either way, this would be incorrect."

I doubt it given I was asking someone else to clarify their own statement.

"First, in any given year, the majore forcing for the ASI minima is weather, but overall the climatic changes are setting the context. I would suggest that climate forcing is changing so fast and at such magnitude, it is having noticeable yearly effects. Still, most of the year-to-year differences will be weather. Climate is found in the trends."

"Sorry Killian...  No idea what you're trying to say."

Clearly. But no way am I going to go back and re-read all that just to refute you. And, hey, who knows? you may be right. Probably not, but feel free to claim victory.

Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: dnem on August 20, 2019, 05:14:30 PM
Say wuh??  I really don't have any idea what you're driving at. Truly. Not trying to be argumentative and not trying to "claim victory"!  You quote "me" but just quote some of your own words! 

I'm pretty sure we basically agree here: Yes, each year's minimum (minima is a plural) is (largely) a result of weather during the melt season, (in addition to the condition of the ice at the end of freeze season and accumulated ocean heat, probably among other things). The weather in the arctic is changing so quickly that using climate (say 1980-2010) to predict, in advance, any upcoming melt season's weather is highly problematic.  The whole discussion started with the idea of chucking out 2012 as an "outlier". That's silly, IMO, as the likelihood of extreme melt seasons increases every year, "loading the dice."  Using climate to predict weather works well in a stable climate.  It works less well when the underlying climate is shifting rapidly in ways that are not well understood or predictable. I have a hard time seeing how I'm saying anything extreme, or outside the realm of plain common sense.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: nanning on August 20, 2019, 05:31:26 PM
Great post dnem, in my view.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 20, 2019, 08:04:05 PM
Great post dnem, in my view.
++
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Wildcatter on August 20, 2019, 11:54:31 PM
I wonder if the cyclones in the Atlantic and the circulation effect over the last week or two, and continuing, helps lead to a delay in the freeze season on that side
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 21, 2019, 07:28:09 AM
Apropos an earlier discussion: https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24332440-600-quantum-weirdness-isnt-real-weve-just-got-space-and-time-all-wrong/
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Freegrass on August 21, 2019, 05:46:33 PM
My new profile picture is an old one from Facebook that seems suitable for this forum. Nobody ever got it on Facebook... So I wonder... Can YOU see it?  :o
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: DrTskoul on August 21, 2019, 05:48:49 PM
My new profile picture is an old one from Facebook that seems suitable for this forum. Nobody ever got it on Facebook... So I wonder... Can YOU see it?  :o

Where is the damn ice....
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Freegrass on August 21, 2019, 05:53:44 PM
Where is the damn ice....
Google Earth never shows the ice.
Ignore the details! See the big picture...
I was blown away when I first saw it! :)
But maybe that's just the romantic in me... ;)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: pearscot on August 21, 2019, 06:18:48 PM
I'm so glad I deleted my fbook, it made my already bad depression far worse. But yes, I too notice the lack of ice in that. I do think that if you zoom far enough out on google earth it does now show cloud cover.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: DrTskoul on August 21, 2019, 06:20:58 PM
I guess I cannot see
 ;)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: pearscot on August 21, 2019, 06:53:02 PM
I guess I cannot see
 ;)

I promise I'm not going crazy...if you turn on satellite imagery and zoom out you get a somewhat live view of the clouds. I know this is recently updated because you can see the small tropical storm which formed far off the coast of Maine and also the area of invest in the Florida keys undergoing deep convection today.

Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 21, 2019, 07:13:16 PM
I was going to say "the Mongolian Empire" but I'll stick with the rather less ambitious "Kurdistan". As in "not visible on Freegrass' profile picture".
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Freegrass on August 21, 2019, 07:31:53 PM
I was going to say "the Mongolian Empire" but I'll stick with the rather less ambitious "Kurdistan". As in "not visible on Freegrass' profile picture".
Damn... I guess the world needs more weed to see what I see...  ::) ;) ;D
Here's a hint...
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on August 21, 2019, 07:35:07 PM
Quote
Earth gravity variations will not affect anything that floats over a iso-potential surface because these variations have already been accounted for in the level variations of the iso-surface. Nothing that lies in this iso-potential surface will feel gravitational pull parallel to the iso-potential surface. BECAUSE BY DEFINITION THE GRAVITATIONAL FORCE IS PERPENTICULAR TO THIS SURFACE.
Umm the shouty bits do not make it more true.
The mass of the Greenland ice sheet is above your theoretical surface.
The ice sheet has a gravitational pull perpendicular to its mass .
When the ice is gone the gravitational effects in the local area change.
Lowering  the surface of the water nearby.
The same effect will happen in antarctic resulting  the polar sea levels falling and higher seas  the nearer you get to the equator.

http://sealevelstudy.org/sea-change-science/whats-in-a-number/attractive-ice-sheets

You are both right! SIS is correct, as are you. All things being equal water follows an equipotential surface  that is perpendicular to the gravity field. As ice melts, mass is redistributed and the shape of the surface changes, and be inference, water level. I think it's confusing as we think of things flowing up and down 'hills' but in reality, in terms of the 'hills' on the geoid, the hills are flat....
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: blumenkraft on August 21, 2019, 08:48:33 PM
if you turn on satellite imagery and zoom out you get a somewhat live view of the clouds.

That's so cool. Never noticed.

It seems to be the top clouds only though. There are a lot of more lower clouds.

Here is the M10 band with Cloud Layer overlay.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: binntho on August 22, 2019, 07:29:49 AM
I was going to say "the Mongolian Empire" but I'll stick with the rather less ambitious "Kurdistan". As in "not visible on Freegrass' profile picture".
Damn... I guess the world needs more weed to see what I see...  ::) ;) ;D
Here's a hint...
Brandy?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: John_The_Elder on August 22, 2019, 02:35:57 PM
I think you see a very large Alaskan Husky!
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 22, 2019, 07:44:35 PM

https://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2017/uncertainty-in-warming-since-pre-industrial-times/

Extract: … consider the amount of warming left between today and the 1.5°C target."
I hate to think anybody considers 1.5°C as a target to reach! [After that we have a 2.0°C target, and after we achieve that we'll have a …]  Shouldn't we call it something like "an intended upper limit" (IUL if they use the term multiple times in the paper - "the amount of warming left between today and the 1.5°C IUL")?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Freegrass on September 12, 2019, 12:03:52 AM
Brandy?
The girl, or the booze?  ::)

You really don't see the "girl" and the "dog" in the planet turned on its side? I think the girl is mother nature with her guardian of the planet... ;)

And yes, it's good weed!  8) :o ;D
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Niall Dollard on September 12, 2019, 01:00:42 AM
Yes I could see the dog, Freegrass, better viewed zoomed out on an average quality phone !

Reminds me a bit of this guy  ;)
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Freegrass on September 12, 2019, 01:16:09 AM
Droopy, ruler of the universe... That makes sense! Now I know why the world is going down the drain...  ;D

Did you also see the girl?
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 16, 2019, 09:01:21 PM
WeatherUnderground's Cat 6 (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/August-2019-Earths-2nd-Warmest-August-Record) shout-out.
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: SimonF92 on September 16, 2019, 10:41:32 PM
Picked this up today, cover- cover on the Arctic
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: MyACIsDying on September 19, 2019, 02:22:45 PM
Sorry, my verbiage was imprecise. I don't mean a comparison of the volatility of the ice itself (which is why I ask the question here) but of the JAXA vs. NSIDC instrumentation/assimilation/etc. Just a simple statistical reckoning of the relative smoothness of their daily curves for area and extent. Does one data-source tend to be smoother than the other? On the other hand, if that comparison is probably meaningless, that's also interesting to hear.
bolded why I'm replying here ^^

Sorry for the misunderstanding the other day, hope this makes up for it: JAXA vs NSIDC daily extent for 2019 as line graphic and their respective daily changes as stepped graphic.

While doing so, I heed gerontocrat's & others warning of not comparing different metrics together (hence the INVALID). For the reasons that you mention, differences in instrumentation & algorithms. What we value is the consistency in these models to base trend theories on.

 A simple difference may be that NSIDC measures a larger area than JAXA, seeing winter extent is higher.
Another is that JAXA reports daily extent to 1 km² preciseness , while NSIDC rounds up to 1000 km²

Anyway, the chart makes it clear NSIDC daily change is a lot more jagged than JAXA. If that is because they're more (in)accurate? or JAXA has smoother algorithms, I have no clue.


Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: slow wing on September 25, 2019, 03:31:06 PM
🌍🔥  New #IPCC #ClimateChange report released today: "IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate" #SROCC

Press release: https://ipcc.ch/2019/09/25/srocc-press-release/ (https://ipcc.ch/2019/09/25/srocc-press-release/)

Full Report, & Summary for Policy Makers: https://ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/  (https://ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/)🔥🌍
Title: Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
Post by: Stephan on September 26, 2019, 09:12:23 PM
Thank you for posting these links.