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Off-topic => The rest => Topic started by: AbruptSLR on April 30, 2018, 05:23:27 PM

Title: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 30, 2018, 05:23:27 PM
As there is no specific thread yet on beating the GOP during the 2018 mid-term elections.  In order to reduce the noise from other, but different, threads, this thread is ONLY for posts related to how the GOP are in the process of losing ground in the 2018 mid-term elections.

Title: "GOP civil war in Ohio threatens another special election loss"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/30/ohio-special-election-republicans-559697

Extract: "Outside groups are pouring in money as prominent Republicans say nominating the wrong candidate could cost the GOP the district."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 30, 2018, 05:34:45 PM
The GOP's disregard for maintaining appropriate environmental regulations will likely motivate voters to vote against GOP candidates in the 2018 elections:

Title: "Republicans have so corrupted EPA, Americans can only save it in the voting booth"

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/apr/30/republicans-have-so-corrupted-epa-americans-can-only-save-it-in-the-voting-booth

Extract: "Few Republicans in power have called for Pruitt to resign. That’s because, as Oliver Milman wrote for the Guardian, despite Pruitt’s unprecedented level of corruption, they support his “deregulation agenda.”

As Robert Redford put it,

Pruitt should be replaced by a principled leader who will do what the EPA was intended to do: protect America from men such as Pruitt.

But that’s not going to happen as long as Republicans are in charge, because GOP leaders value polluter profits over public and environmental health, as they proved by nominating and confirming both Pruitt and Wheeler.

For Americans who disagree with those priorities, the only recourse is to make their preferences known in the 2018 and 2020 elections.''
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Daniel B. on April 30, 2018, 05:54:20 PM
The GOP's disregard for maintaining appropriate environmental regulations will likely motivate voters to vote against GOP candidates in the 2018 elections:

Title: "Republicans have so corrupted EPA, Americans can only save it in the voting booth"

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/apr/30/republicans-have-so-corrupted-epa-americans-can-only-save-it-in-the-voting-booth

Extract: "Few Republicans in power have called for Pruitt to resign. That’s because, as Oliver Milman wrote for the Guardian, despite Pruitt’s unprecedented level of corruption, they support his “deregulation agenda.”

As Robert Redford put it,

Pruitt should be replaced by a principled leader who will do what the EPA was intended to do: protect America from men such as Pruitt.

But that’s not going to happen as long as Republicans are in charge, because GOP leaders value polluter profits over public and environmental health, as they proved by nominating and confirming both Pruitt and Wheeler.

For Americans who disagree with those priorities, the only recourse is to make their preferences known in the 2018 and 2020 elections.''

This is not a major issue among the electorate.  Recent polling shows that the environment was the most important issue for just 8% of the voters, tied with terrorism.  This is not important enough to motivate a significant number voters to oust the GOP.  Other issues may result in the GOP losing the House.  The Dems have little chance of winning the Senate, as only 9 GOP seats are being contested this year, with most being quite safe.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/a849k68e2i/econTabReport.pdf (https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/a849k68e2i/econTabReport.pdf)
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: JimD on April 30, 2018, 05:55:45 PM
ASLR

Yes. This is the kind of stuff we need.  Forget about rehashing the past election and focus on the future.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 30, 2018, 06:10:37 PM
The GOP is a 'House Divided' and as such, they are enduring many self-inflicted wounds during the run-up to the 2018 mid-term elections:

Title: "What to do about the GOP's self-inflicted wounds? | Lowman S. Henry"

http://www.pennlive.com/opinion/2018/04/what_to_do_about_the_gops_self.html

Extract: "There is no problem in which the Republican Party finds itself that it can't make worse.  Such is the case with GOP efforts to defend an increasingly frail majority in the United States House of Representatives.

At the moment, it appears the party is doing nothing right and good ole Penn's Woods has contributed mightily to their woes.

Let us count the ways.

Tilt the Playing Field: Years ago national Democrats realized they had no chance of regaining control of congress given the redistricting plans implemented in the several states. 

Rather than wait until 2021 and the next scheduled round of redistricting they set about challenging existing plans in key states such as Wisconsin, North Carolina and, yes, Pennsylvania. To ensure success the Democrats and their labor union allies essentially purchased control of the state Supreme Court. 

Special Election Misfire: When a scandal forced the resignation of suburban Pittsburgh Congressman Tim Murphy it looked like a sure bet Republicans would retain the seat. 

President Trump carried the district by nearly 20 percentage points in 2016. 

State Rep. Rick Saccone, R-Allegheny, was selected as the Republican nominee and proved to be a less than stellar campaigner.

A House Divided: Congressional Republicans have spent more time fighting each other than engaging the Democrats. On any major vote not a single Democrat will break ranks, but Republicans couldn't agree on the color of the White House. 

The Costello Cop Out: Retirements, including the high profile decision by House Speaker Paul Ryan to end his congressional career, further add to the steep hill the GOP must climb. 

To date, 40 Republican congressmen are either retiring or running for higher office. That is far above the historic average of 25 retirements per cycle. Five Pennsylvania Republican congressmen have announced their retirements, the latest being U.S. Rep. Ryan Costello of Chester County.

Thus Pennsylvania has become the Keystone state for Democratic efforts to reclaim control of the U.S. House of Representatives. 

And they are doing so with significant help from the GOP itself."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 30, 2018, 06:13:57 PM
This is not a major issue among the electorate.  Recent polling shows that the environment was the most important issue for just 8% of the voters, tied with terrorism.  This is not important enough to motivate a significant number voters to oust the GOP.  Other issues may result in the GOP losing the House.  The Dems have little chance of winning the Senate, as only 9 GOP seats are being contested this year, with most being quite safe.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/a849k68e2i/econTabReport.pdf (https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/a849k68e2i/econTabReport.pdf)

There are other threads addressing why the Democrats will not do well in the 2018 mid-term elections.  In this thread, please restrict your posts to reasons why the GOP is losing ground in the run-up to the 2018 mid-term elections.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 30, 2018, 06:31:58 PM
The GOP establishment leadership are afraid to criticize the outlandish things that Trump says/tweets because they are concerned that if they push him too hard he will form a 3rd party primarily by splintering the Republican Party.  Consequently, I think that they will pay a heavy price during the 2018 mid-term elections by alienating swing voters (Independents, Republicans and Democrats) in the middle.

Title: "The 57 most outlandish, outrageous and offensive lines from Trump's Michigan rally"

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/30/politics/donald-trump-michigan-speech-annotation/index.html

Extract: " On Saturday night, even as comedian Michelle Wolf was roasting him in Washington, President Donald Trump was in another Washington -- this one in Michigan -- where he was delivering a roast all his own: Of elites, the media, Democrats and anyone else he could think of.

I went through the transcript of Trump's Michigan speech and picked out the most eye-catching lines."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Daniel B. on April 30, 2018, 06:46:48 PM
This is not a major issue among the electorate.  Recent polling shows that the environment was the most important issue for just 8% of the voters, tied with terrorism.  This is not important enough to motivate a significant number voters to oust the GOP.  Other issues may result in the GOP losing the House.  The Dems have little chance of winning the Senate, as only 9 GOP seats are being contested this year, with most being quite safe.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/a849k68e2i/econTabReport.pdf (https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/a849k68e2i/econTabReport.pdf)

There are other threads addressing why the Democrats will not do well in the 2018 mid-term elections.  In this thread, please restrict your posts to reasons why the GOP is losing ground in the run-up to the 2018 mid-term elections.

The GOP was losing ground during Trump's first full year.  However, that skids seems to have come to an end.  Support for the GOP bottomed out last December, and the Dems held a 13 pt generic advantage.  That advantage has been cut in half since.  The GOP is no longer losing ground, and I truly believe that other issues will outweigh environmental concerns come November.  This will be especially true if no new environmental issue come into the spot light.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html)
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 30, 2018, 07:11:29 PM

The GOP leadership are losing their standing with mainstream US voters on their traditional core issues including: fiscal responsibility, morality and resistance of global authoritarianism; and consequently they will pay a price in the 2018 mid-term elections:

Title: "THE COMPLETE FLIP-OUT"

https://www.bluewave-2018.com/blog/2018/2/16/complete-flipout

Extract: "The Republicans have abandoned their core principles.  The tax and budget bills just passed clearly demonstrate they no longer stand for fiscal constraint.  And their endorsement and support of misogynists, abusers and philanderers is an utter reversal and shockingly wanton dismissal of the moral high ground.  They're adopting practices of fascists and have gone completely soft on Russia.  The reasons are many and storied - and some are yet to be fully revealed - but we've seen this complete flip and they're not coming back.

All the Republican leadership stands for now is themselves and the crony money-grubbers with whom they share mutual benefits.  As a result, we can't count on them to carry the banner for anything useful.  Fiscal constraint?  Gone.  Morality?  Laughable.  Defending America against Russian attack?  They're not only not defending us, they're sympathizers.  Joseph McCarthy is turning over in his grave."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on April 30, 2018, 07:16:57 PM
Is waiting for the other side to implode a strategy?


If they do, we can all hold hands round a campfire and sing Kumbaya. In the meantime doesn't it make sense to nominate some candidates that can win, even if they face strong opposition?


I've followed professional boxing all of my life. Every now and then the better boxer will overlook an opponent, not train as hard as he should, and he'll end up face down on the mat.


The subject here is the GOP losing ground for the coming midterm. I don't believe that to be what the polls are showing us, and I particularly object to it being heralded as a strategy going forward.


We can win if we're willing to put in the work. (and a slew of progressive candidates) ::)
Terry


edit
The Tail Gunner is rolling in his grave with laughter. 60 some years later and the Democrats have taken up the cause that he and Roy Cohen held so dear.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 30, 2018, 07:32:23 PM
Even a few months ago the GOP was hoping to gain seats in the Senate, now GOP insiders are concerned about not only losing their majority in the House but also possibly in the Senate:

Title: "Six months out, what GOP insiders expect in November"

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/29/politics/ip-6-months-until-midterms/index.html

Extract: "There is no dispute that both the GOP's House and Senate majorities are at risk. But six months out, CNN's John King reports there are widely different assessments within the GOP ranks about how difficult the environment will be, and about how certain it is that the losses will run deep.

The biggest factor in midterm years is the President's approval rating. President Trump's in the the 40% range, and most Republicans believe it is unrealistic to expect it to get much better. The "generic ballot" test has been more of a moving target. Voters consistently prefer Democrats to control Congress, but the margin has gyrated over the past few months.

King says some Republicans tell him they are already resigned to losing the House.

The Senate math is also the subject of considerable debate.

Republicans entered the year hoping to defy history and gain seats, based on a 2018 map that has far more Democratic incumbents on defense. Indiana's May primary is one of the key dates ahead in Senate calculations. Republicans also feel more upbeat about North Dakota in recent days, in part because of encouraging GOP polling numbers, and there is a better mood about Florida now that Gov. Rick Scott is officially in the race and is beginning to get more active on the trail.

On the flip side, some Republicans are increasingly worried about GOP-held seats in Tennessee and Arizona where Democrats have strong candidates.

Six months seems like a long time, but the May primaries will kick things into a higher gear."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Daniel B. on April 30, 2018, 07:48:56 PM
Is waiting for the other side to implode a strategy?


If they do, we can all hold hands round a campfire and sing Kumbaya. In the meantime doesn't it make sense to nominate some candidates that can win, even if they face strong opposition?


I've followed professional boxing all of my life. Every now and then the better boxer will overlook an opponent, not train as hard as he should, and he'll end up face down on the mat.


The subject here is the GOP losing ground for the coming midterm. I don't believe that to be what the polls are showing us, and I particularly object to it being heralded as a strategy going forward.


We can win if we're willing to put in the work. (and a slew of progressive candidates) ::)
Terry


edit
The Tail Gunner is rolling in his grave with laughter. 60 some years later and the Democrats have taken up the cause that he and Roy Cohen held so dear.

I wholeheartedly agree.  People are much more likely to gather around a candidate that they favor.  A campaign strategy that focuses solely on voting against someone, tends to create apathy, not enthusiasm.  Just compare Obama and Clinton.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 30, 2018, 07:57:11 PM
The GOP has become overly reliant on mechanism such as voter suppression.  While the Democrats will have a fight on their hands in the 2018 midterm elections, both favorable judicial decisions regarding gerrymandering and a good ground game to get out the vote (including driving voters to the polls), could see the Democrats make-up lost ground against the GOP:

Title: "How the GOP Rigs Elections"

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/gop-rigs-elections-gerrymandering-voter-id-laws-dark-money-w515664

Extract: "To say that Republicans are facing a toxic political environment heading into the 2018 midterm elections would be a massive understatement. Donald Trump is the most unpopular president at this stage of his term in modern American history. Just three in 10 Americans have a favorable view of the Republican Party, and Democratic voters' enthusiasm to vote in 2018 tops Republican voters' by 17 points. But because of sophisticated gerrymandering, Republicans who should be vulnerable, like Wanggaard, have been seen as untouchable.

Since Trump's election, Republicans have accelerated their efforts to make it harder to vote. The president's whopping lie that "millions voted illegally" in 2016 led to the creation of a Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity, which was run by figures like Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who have repeatedly spread false claims about voter fraud in order to pass policies that restrict access to the ballot. The commission was abruptly disbanded by Trump in early January after facing 15 federal and state lawsuits for violating a wide range of privacy and transparency laws, stemming from the commission's unprecedented request for sensitive voter data from all 50 states.

Despite these Republican advantages, the end of 2017 brought good news for Democrats. In November, the party won the Virginia governor's race and picked up a surprising 15 seats in the state's House of Delegates. A month later, Democrat Doug Jones won a shocking upset over Roy Moore in a special election for the U.S. Senate in Alabama. Democrats are now favored to win control of the House in 2018 and have a shot at taking back the Senate. The tide is even turning in Wisconsin, where in early January 2018 Democrats won a special election by 10 points for a state Senate district that Trump won by 17 points and Republicans had held since 2000. It was the Democrats' 34th pickup of the 2018 cycle.

The lower courts have already signaled a willingness to push back on unfair redistricting. On January 9th, a federal court struck down North Carolina's U.S. House map, which gives Republicans a 10-to-three advantage over Democrats, the first time a federal court has invalidated congressional lines for partisan gerrymandering. But on January 18th, the Supreme Court blocked the redrawing of North Carolina's maps, pending appeal. GOP-drawn districts have also been struck down in Alabama, Florida, Virginia and Texas. Many of these rulings are similarly being appealed by Republicans, making it unlikely such districts will be redrawn before the 2018 elections. After this story went to press, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court struck down the state's Congressional maps – which give Republicans a 13 to 5 advantage – and ordered they be redrawn in 2018, boosting Democratic prospects in the state."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 30, 2018, 08:19:37 PM
Tax evasion brought down Al Capone, so the GOP should be nervous that Mueller has some of the best bean counters around going over team Trump's potentially illegal financial dealings.  Bean counters do not have short attention spans (like most of the posters in this forum), thus the Mueller investigate could hang an albatross around the GOP's neck between now and November 6, 2018:

Title: "Want to Bring Down Donald Trump? Follow the People Who Follow the Money"

https://www.alternet.org/want-bring-down-donald-trump-follow-people-who-follow-money

Extract: "If Donald Trump is taken down, it may well be the bean counters who ultimately do it."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 30, 2018, 09:05:48 PM
Voters who want to protect NASA from the likes of Jim Bridenstine (who is cut from the same cloth as James Inhofe & Scott Pruitt), will likely vote against the GOP come November 2018:

Title: "The Boys from Tulsa/Weekend Reader for Sunday, April 29"

http://www.dailyclimate.org/the-boys-from-tulsa-weekend-reader-for-sunday-april-29-2564190102.html

Extract: "A trio of regulation-hatin', climate-denyin' desperadoes from Tulsa are taking Washington by storm."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 30, 2018, 09:35:34 PM
Voters who care about the Arctic, are increasingly less likely to vote for the GOP in November 2018:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/04/trump-administration-takes-first-steps-toward-drilling-alaska-s-arctic-refuge


"By putting the fate of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in the hands of former oil industry lobbyist David Bernhardt, Secretary Zinke has made clear that this rushed environmental review process will be nothing more than a kangaroo court," Matt Lee-Ashley, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress in Washington, D.C., said in a statement.

Environmental groups told the Trump administration to brace for a legal battle.
"The Trump administration's reckless dash to expedite drilling and destroy the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge will only hasten a trip to the courthouse," Jamie Rappaport Clark, president and CEO Defenders of Wildlife in Washington, D.C., said in a statement. "We will not stand by and watch them desecrate this fragile landscape."

Lawmakers responded largely along party lines.

"We welcome this scoping announcement and the Department’s continued work to implement our legislation opening the Coastal Plain to responsible energy development," Alaska's congressional delegation, all Republicans, said in a joint statement. "We appreciate the Department following the law, planning multiple public meetings with Alaskans, and moving forward on this important program to help ensure the energy and economic security of our nation."

House Natural Resources ranking member Raúl Grijalva (D-AZ) and eight Democratic colleagues today sent a letter to Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke objecting to the "needless haste" toward leasing in ANWR.

"This administration's naked greed and corporate favoritism have become an ongoing self-parody," Grijalva said in a statement. "This is the kind of rushed policy that gets made during a backroom deal, not a careful assessment of public opinion and scientific data. President Trump and Secretary Zinke count drilling in the Arctic Refuge as a win because it upsets Americans they don't like, not because it will have any public benefit."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 30, 2018, 09:44:17 PM
Voters who care about science (particularly scientists) are increasingly likely to hold the GOP accountable in November 2018:

Title: "The Largest Number Of Scientists In Modern U.S. History Are Running For Office In 2018"

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/science-candidates_us_5a74fffde4b06ee97af2ae60?guccounter=1

Extract: "At least 200 candidates with previous careers in science, technology, engineering and math announced bids for some of the nation’s roughly 7,000 state legislature seats as of Jan. 31, according to data that 314 Action, a political action committee, shared exclusively with HuffPost.

The group, which launched in 2014 to help scientists run for office, said it is talking with 500 more people and is pressing about half of them to run. An additional 200 such candidates are running for school boards.

“The sheer number is really astonishing,” 314 Action founder Shaughnessy Naughton told HuffPost. “We’ve never seen anything like this.”

This is the largest number of scientists to run for public office in modern history. If any of them win, it could dramatically multiply the number of scientists in Congress beyond Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.), the lone Ph.D. scientist, a physicist.

The surge in congressional bids comes as scientists are experiencing a fierce political backlash. A year into his first term, President Donald Trump has yet to name a science adviser and has proposed dramatically slashing research budgets across federal agencies. He openly mocks the widely accepted science behind global warming and has nominated ardent climate deniers to key environmental positions. Under Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt, the White House has reversed regulations to reduce greenhouse gases and put new rules in place to give control of the agency’s science advisory boards to researchers paid by industries."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on April 30, 2018, 10:35:44 PM
The GOP has become overly reliant on mechanism such as voter suppression.  While the Democrats will have a fight on their hands in the 2018 midterm elections, both favorable judicial decisions regarding gerrymandering and a good ground game to get out the vote (including driving voters to the polls), could see the Democrats make-up lost ground against the GOP:

Title: "How the GOP Rigs Elections"

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/gop-rigs-elections-gerrymandering-voter-id-laws-dark-money-w515664 (https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/gop-rigs-elections-gerrymandering-voter-id-laws-dark-money-w515664)

Extract: "To say that Republicans are facing a toxic political environment heading into the 2018 midterm elections would be a massive understatement. Donald Trump is the most unpopular president at this stage of his term in modern American history. Just three in 10 Americans have a favorable view of the Republican Party, and Democratic voters' enthusiasm to vote in 2018 tops Republican voters' by 17 points. But because of sophisticated gerrymandering, Republicans who should be vulnerable, like Wanggaard, have been seen as untouchable.

I'm not sure when the Rolling Stone article was written, but the bolded is no longer true. According to FiveThirtyEight Jimmy Carter polled lower and Truman, Ford and Reagan were all within a very narrow range of polling error.
38.6% of Americans now prefer the Republicans over the Democrats - not a winning majority, but much better than the 3 out of 10 that are mentioned.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

Trump and the Republicans have had a bad week, but they're still well up for the year.
Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 30, 2018, 10:45:20 PM
The Democrats are working hard to help the GOP implode in several state legislatures in November:

Title: "Democrats strive to tighten their hold in several states"

https://www.sacbee.com/news/business/article210102904.html

Extract: "Democrats buoyed by anti-Trump political activism want to wrest control of legislatures from Republicans, but they're also striving to tighten their hold in states where they have an edge — or where control is split — in order to pass legislation ranging from gun control to health care and from taxation to campaign finance reform."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 30, 2018, 11:43:18 PM
The GOP is so fractured that even George W. Bush's former ethics czar is encouraging people to vote for the Democrats:

Title: "Bush Ethics Czar Launches Democratic Senate Bid. Can His Resistance Cred Make Up for His GOP Past?"

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/04/richard-painter-launches-primary-challenge-to-minnesota-sen-tina-smith.html

Extract: "Richard Painter, who recently went from GOP ethics czar to nerd-hero of the #resistance, on Monday announced another surprising career turn: Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate.

Painter will challenge interim Sen. Tina Smith in Minnesota’s Democratic primary this summer, a decision that sets up a high-profile showdown this summer that could scramble the usual battle lines on the left.

Painter explained his party-switching this way: “We need to stand firm against what President Trump is threatening to do to our country, and the only alternative this fall is going to be to vote for Democrats,” he said in announcing his candidacy for the seat vacated by Al Franken last year. “The Republican Party has demonstrated that it is not willing to participate in our democratic system. The Republicans insist if you’re going to run for national office you must be loyal to President Donald Trump.”"
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on May 01, 2018, 12:01:46 AM
The GOP is so fractured that even George W. Bush's former ethics czar is encouraging people to vote for the Democrats:

Title: "Bush Ethics Czar Launches Democratic Senate Bid. Can His Resistance Cred Make Up for His GOP Past?"

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/04/richard-painter-launches-primary-challenge-to-minnesota-sen-tina-smith.html (https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/04/richard-painter-launches-primary-challenge-to-minnesota-sen-tina-smith.html)

Extract: "Richard Painter, who recently went from GOP ethics czar to nerd-hero of the #resistance, on Monday announced another surprising career turn: Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate.

Painter will challenge interim Sen. Tina Smith in Minnesota’s Democratic primary this summer, a decision that sets up a high-profile showdown this summer that could scramble the usual battle lines on the left.

Painter explained his party-switching this way: “We need to stand firm against what President Trump is threatening to do to our country, and the only alternative this fall is going to be to vote for Democrats,” he said in announcing his candidacy for the seat vacated by Al Franken last year. “The Republican Party has demonstrated that it is not willing to participate in our democratic system. The Republicans insist if you’re going to run for national office you must be loyal to President Donald Trump.”"


no No NO NO NO
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 01, 2018, 12:11:01 AM
Missouri could be the straw that breaks the GOP grip on the Senate:

Title: "Will Missouri’s scandal-plagued Gov. Eric Greitens rescue Claire McCaskill one more time?"

https://www.salon.com/2018/04/30/will-missouris-scandal-plagued-gov-eric-greitens-rescue-claire-mccaskill-one-more-time/

Extract: "Virtually all Missouri Republicans have turned on Eric Greitens amid an ugly sex scandal, but he vows to fight on

Felony charges against Greitens for those allegations and for allegations of computer tampering could help torch Missouri Republicans’ chances of capturing the U.S. Senate seat now held by Claire McCaskill, a Democrat. Winning back the Missouri seat is seen as crucial to continued Republican control of the Senate, since the GOP now has only a 51-49 majority, and strategists believe they may lose two or three seats currently held by Republicans."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 01, 2018, 03:59:00 AM
This could go into the Trump folder, but as it indicates that Pence is throwing Trump under the bus w.r.t. Jackson (the Candy Man), this is an example of the GOP fracturing:

Title: "Exclusive: Pence's doctor alerted WH aides about Ronny Jackson concerns last fall"

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/30/politics/karen-pence-doctor-privacy-ronny-jackson/index.html

Extract: "ice President Mike Pence's physician privately raised alarms within the White House last fall that President Donald Trump's doctor may have violated federal privacy protections for a key patient -- Pence's wife, Karen -- and intimidated the vice president's doctor during angry confrontations over the episode."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 02, 2018, 01:49:04 AM
If the 9 percent of voters 'very surprised' by Trump's behavior in office vote in swing states, then we may have just identified the '9% solution' to the nations current GOP problem:

Title: "Just 9 percent 'very surprised' by Trump's behavior in office: poll"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/just-9-percent-very-surprised-by-trumps-behavior-in-office-poll/ar-AAwATqK?ocid=spartandhp

Extract: "A Monmouth University poll, conducted April 26-30, found just 9 percent of American adults are very surprised by the way Trump has handled the presidency. Another 10 percent said they are somewhat surprised."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Daniel B. on May 02, 2018, 02:50:17 AM
In order for the Dems to regain the Senate, they must win 29 of the 35 races this November.  Eleven of those races are solidly Democratic, while five are solidly Republican.  Another six lean towards the Democrat, while two lean Republican.  That leaves 11, of which the Dems would need to win ten.  Although many of those states have incumbent Democratic Senators, nine of them voter for Trump in 2016, some by double digits.  It is still early yet, so anything is possible.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 02, 2018, 05:59:07 PM
Some people who voted for Trump thought that he might reduce government corruption; while in reality under his GOP administration this problem has gotten worse.  Now the liberal-leaning Roosevelt Institute is proposing measures to fight corruption in the US government (which will likely impact the GOP more than the Democrats):

Title: "Corruption Is Bad"

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/government-anti-corruption-oversight_us_5ae8e4ebe4b06748dc8d4b43

Extract: "Think tanks themselves are meant to influence the political process, and think tanks have to get their funding somewhere. Some of the worst Washington corruption scandals in recent years have involved think tanks leveraging their reputations to help corporate donors.

So the latest policy proposal from the liberal-leaning Roosevelt Institute deserves special attention. Authored by incoming federal trade commissioner Rohit Chopra as he awaited Senate confirmation for his new post, the paper marks the first comprehensive attempt to rethink federal anti-corruption policy in years ― maybe since the Watergate era. Instead of focusing on campaign contributions and elections, Chopra takes a look at the way special interests exercise undue influence over the federal bureaucracy and the broader policy debate in Washington.

But Washington seems to be changing. In the past few weeks, multiple senators have endorsed ambitious policy ideas that seemed unthinkable just a few years or even months ago. The Roosevelt Institute paper could be the start of a new conversation about clean government.

“We need to revisit government institutions broadly to make clear that not only is Donald Trump’s corruption unacceptable, but the type of banal corruption that predated him is also unacceptable,” Hauser told HuffPost."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on May 02, 2018, 09:13:55 PM
Here's link for the "Cook Political Report."  It is put together by Charlie Cook ...... well respected by BOTH SIDES.  I have the link for the "House" ..... but there are other things as well.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 03, 2018, 04:13:35 AM
Trump's rot is infecting the GOP, and soon the body GOP will reject its new spine:

Title: "Marco Rubio’s Body Rejects News Spine"

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/05/marco-rubio-tax-bill-flip-flop

Extract: "The senator suddenly loves the tax plan he trashed just two days ago."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: sidd on May 03, 2018, 07:54:27 AM
Now this is interesting: republican primary challenger running on bringing the troops home:

16 district of ohio, gerrymandered as you will see if you look it up. GOP machine dont like her, but theres a buncha people with family in harms way in stupid wars round there.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/05/01/hagan-troops-home-spent-enough-money/

sidd
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on May 03, 2018, 01:23:12 PM
List of 11 members running for re-election that are all too willing to allow Russia to interfere in our 2016 election.... AND ... unable to call out the lies of Donald Trump.  They themselves, are obstructing justice.  Jim Jordan and Mark Meadows are the only ones NOT on the House Intelligence Committee..... BUT.... they are the lead sources now in lying for Donald Trump in the US House of Representatives, and they ARE running for re-election.

1)  Mark Meadows, North Carolina, 11th District
2)  Jim Jordon, Ohio 4th District
3)  Devin Nunes, California 22nd District
4)  Peter King, New York 2nd District
5)  Chris Stewart, Utah 2nd District
6)  Michael Conaway, Texas 11th District
7)  Eric Crawford, Arkansas 1st District
8)  Will Hurd, Texas 23rd District
9)  Elise Stefanik, New York 21st District
10) Michael Turner, Ohio 10th District
11)Brad Wenstrup, Ohio 2nd District


Below....are other members from the House Intelligence Committee that are NOT running for re-election ...... but signed the lying and misleading House majority report on their sham investigation.

Trey Gowdy, South Carolina 4th District
Frank LoBiondo, New Jersey 2nd District
Thomas Rooney, Florida 17th District
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Florida 17th District


https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-allied-house-conservatives-draft-articles-of-impeachment-against-rosenstein-as-last-resort/2018/04/30/d78af412-4c97-11e8-b725-92c89fe3ca4c_story.html?utm_term=.7039340d34d4
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Daniel B. on May 03, 2018, 01:30:33 PM
Here's link for the "Cook Political Report."  It is put together by Charlie Cook ...... well respected by BOTH SIDES.  I have the link for the "House" ..... but there are other things as well.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

Interesting.  He pegs the race fro the House as follows:  R - 210, D- 192, with 33 seats largely undecided.  The Dems need to win 26 of those 33 to take over.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 03, 2018, 05:22:31 PM
List of 11 members running for re-election that are all too willing to allow Russia to interfere in our 2016 election.... AND ... unable to call out the lies of Donald Trump.  They themselves, are obstructing justice.

The GOP is shameless in their abuse of governmental power for their own political ends as this article indicates that Paul Ryan has essentially been running the House as an extension of Trump's political policies.  Remember that the GOP House impeached Bill Clinton for his dealings with Monica Lewinsky; however, they look the other way over all of the Trump-Daniels relationships.  The swing voters will wise-up fast to this double standard and will hold the GOP accountable in the 2018 midterm elections:

Title: "Paul Ryan Warns If Republicans Lose House, Cover-ups Will End"

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/05/paul-ryan-if-the-gop-loses-house-trump-cover-ups-will-end.html

Extract: "Paul Ryan appeared at a financial conference to warn that, if Democrats win control of either the House or the Senate in the November elections, “you’ll have gridlock, you’ll have subpoenas.” The gridlock part is true, but it is basically the case already. The Republican legislative agenda has come to a halt, and neither the party nor even its intellectual class has any ideas about which kinds of bills they ought to pass.

What really would change with Democratic control of a chamber is the subpoena part. But it’s worth spelling out just what it is Ryan is warning will happen — and what, by implication, he is confessing.

Ryan’s House has been run essentially as a subordinate arm of the Trump administration. Ryan and his party have quashed votes to compel release of Donald Trump’s tax returns, and they have used their investigative power not to oversee the presidency but to harass and intimidate the Department of Justice into falling into line behind the president’s whims, to the point where the acting attorney general had to bluntly accuse House Republicans of trying to “extort” him. Trump and his family have used their power to enrich themselves personally, with no hearings or oversight whatsoever from the House. His Cabinet members have likewise misspent funds and abused their authority without any accountability from the committees that are putatively tasked with the job."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Daniel B. on May 03, 2018, 06:38:17 PM
List of 11 members running for re-election that are all too willing to allow Russia to interfere in our 2016 election.... AND ... unable to call out the lies of Donald Trump.  They themselves, are obstructing justice.

The GOP is shameless in their abuse of governmental power for their own political ends as this article indicates that Paul Ryan has essentially been running the House as an extension of Trump's political policies.  Remember that the GOP House impeached Bill Clinton for his dealings with Monica Lewinsky; however, they look the other way over all of the Trump-Daniels relationships.  The swing voters will wise-up fast to this double standard and will hold the GOP accountable in the 2018 midterm elections:

Title: "Paul Ryan Warns If Republicans Lose House, Cover-ups Will End"

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/05/paul-ryan-if-the-gop-loses-house-trump-cover-ups-will-end.html

Extract: "Paul Ryan appeared at a financial conference to warn that, if Democrats win control of either the House or the Senate in the November elections, “you’ll have gridlock, you’ll have subpoenas.” The gridlock part is true, but it is basically the case already. The Republican legislative agenda has come to a halt, and neither the party nor even its intellectual class has any ideas about which kinds of bills they ought to pass.

What really would change with Democratic control of a chamber is the subpoena part. But it’s worth spelling out just what it is Ryan is warning will happen — and what, by implication, he is confessing.

Ryan’s House has been run essentially as a subordinate arm of the Trump administration. Ryan and his party have quashed votes to compel release of Donald Trump’s tax returns, and they have used their investigative power not to oversee the presidency but to harass and intimidate the Department of Justice into falling into line behind the president’s whims, to the point where the acting attorney general had to bluntly accuse House Republicans of trying to “extort” him. Trump and his family have used their power to enrich themselves personally, with no hearings or oversight whatsoever from the House. His Cabinet members have likewise misspent funds and abused their authority without any accountability from the committees that are putatively tasked with the job."

Seems like quite the stretch, especially since Ryan refused to endorse Trump after securing the nomination.  Ryan only reluctantly agreed to work with the president after his election, since he had little choice at that point.  To call the house under Ryan a "subordinate arm of the Trump administration," is a fallacy.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 03, 2018, 07:42:08 PM
The linked article discusses yet another example of the GOP's disintegrating respect for the rule of law, and their increasing desire to replace the rule of law with Trumpian authoritarianism:

Title: "Giuliani’s FBI ‘Stormtroopers’ Smear Is the Key to Trump’s Authoritarian Mind-set"

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/05/giuliani-fbi-stormtroopers-and-trumps-authoritarianism-mueller.html

Extract: " In 1995, National Rifle Association president Wayne LaPierre signed his name to a fundraising letter referring to Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms agents as “jack-booted government thugs.” The implicit association of American federal law enforcement with fascists provoked a furor. Former president George H. W. Bush publicly resigned his NRA membership in protest; LaPierre had to apologize.

Last night, in the midst of a long, deeply incriminating interview, Rudy Giuliani called FBI agents “stormtroopers.” Here was the president’s lawyer, not an outside lobbyist, comparing federal law enforcement to Nazis directly, rather than indirectly. The Washington Post’s account of Giuliani’s interview noted the remark in a single sentence, in the 30th paragraph of its story. The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Politico accounts of Giuliani’s interview did not even mention the stormtrooper remark at all.

No doubt the flurry of hair-on-fire legal jeopardy unleashed by Giuliani’s remarks helped bury the newsworthiness of his stormtrooper line. Still, the casualness with which the line was uttered and received does indicate something important about the way Republican thinking about law enforcement has evolved. The party’s respect for the rule of law is disintegrating before our eyes, and in its place is forming a Trumpian conviction that the law must be an instrument of reactionary power."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Daniel B. on May 03, 2018, 08:07:56 PM
And I thought stormtroopers were only in Star Wars.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 03, 2018, 08:18:24 PM
And I thought stormtroopers were only in Star Wars.

Perhaps Giuliani should have said "Brownshirts", and it seems to me that Trump's security forces during his campaign rallies followed "Brownshirt" tactics rather than the FBI:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturmabteilung

Extract: "The Sturmabteilung (SA; German pronunciation: [ˈʃtʊɐ̯mʔapˌtaɪlʊŋ] (About this sound listen)), literally Storm Detachment, functioned as the original paramilitary wing of the Nazi Party (NSDAP). It played a significant role in Adolf Hitler's rise to power in the 1920s and 1930s. Its primary purposes were providing protection for Nazi rallies and assemblies, disrupting the meetings of opposing parties, fighting against the paramilitary units of the opposing parties, especially the Red Front Fighters League (Rotfrontkämpferbund) of the Communist Party of Germany (KPD), and intimidating Slavs, Romanis, trade unionists, and, especially, Jews – for instance, during the Nazi boycott of Jewish businesses.

The SA were also called the "Brownshirts" (Braunhemden) from the color of their uniform shirts, similar to Benito Mussolini's blackshirts. The SA developed pseudo-military titles for its members, with ranks that were later adopted by several other Nazi Party groups, chief amongst them the Schutzstaffel (SS), which originated as a branch of the SA before being separated. Brown shirts were chosen as the SA uniform because a large number of them were cheaply available after World War I, having originally been ordered during the war for colonial troops posted to Germany's former African colonies."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on May 03, 2018, 09:01:40 PM
Paul Ryan warns that if Dems win, they’ll hold Trump accountable

Paul Ryan doesn't quite "get it."  EVERYONE is supposed to hold people accountable when they do illegal things.  That INCLUDES TRUMP.

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/paul-ryan-warns-if-dems-win-theyll-hold-trump-accountable?cid=sm_fb_maddow
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 03, 2018, 10:19:43 PM
The swing voters needs to hold the GOP accountable for the lies that they put forward:

Title: "A Couple Republican Elites Just Admitted Their Agenda Is Built on Lies"

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/05/tom-price-admits-his-case-against-obamacare-was-full-of-lies.html

Extract: "Similarly, most Americans did not look at their nation’s economy last year — with its record-high corporate profits, stagnant wage growth, and steadily growing population of retirees dependent on Social Security benefits — and think: “Congress’s top priority should be to increase the net worth of corporate shareholders and business owners by awarding them hundreds of billions in deficit-financed tax cuts.”

For these reasons, when Republicans tried to sell the public on their “make health care less affordable for the many, so as to make equities more valuable for the few” agenda last year, they did not describe it in those terms. Rather, most opted to grossly misrepresent what their policy goals actually were.

Former Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price used to say that Obamacare’s individual mandate increased health-care costs. Now he’s saying Congress’ decision to repeal it could actually increase costs.

… “There are many, and I am one of them, who believes that that actually will harm the pool in the exchange market because you’ll likely have individuals who are younger and healthier not participating in that market,” he said. “And, consequently, that drives up the cost for other folks in that market.”"
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 03, 2018, 10:36:13 PM
Certainly due to reasons including: gerrymandering, voter suppression, billionaire political donations and Trump's disregard for the rule of law, the Democrats face an uphill battle in the midterm elections.  Nevertheless, the linked article provides an example of how the Democrats can pick-off the vulnerable GOP House incumbents:

Title: "VA-10 Preview: Democrats Fight to Take on Most Vulnerable GOP House Incumbent"

http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/virginia-house/va-10-preview-democrats-fight-take-most-vulnerable-gop-house

Extract: "Rep. Barbara Comstock, first elected in 2014, is probably the single most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the House. In 2016, she won reelection by six points while her Northern Virginia district voted for Hillary Clinton 52 percent to 42 percent. In the 2017 governor's race, Democrat Ralph Northam annihilated Ed Gillespie 56 percent to 43 percent in the 10th CD. Down-ballot in the 10th CD, the "blue wave" swept out six incumbent GOP state delegates.

The prosperous and college-educated Northern Virginia suburbs like Loudoun County are shifting away from the Trump-era GOP with such velocity that, in short, it's difficult to see how Comstock wins reelection in 2018."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on May 03, 2018, 11:27:56 PM
The above is a textbook example of waiting for the opposition to implode so that your side will triumphantly take the hill.


I'd read the link hoping to see what strategy the Democrats would be able to pull out of the hat to slam a homerun and take the seat. Alas, another case of daring to hope, as opposed to daring to offer programs that the voters will actually be drawn to.


The Democratic hopefuls:


Wexton - a political pragmatist
Friedman - the progressive? is heir to a manufacturing dynasty and takes money from Soros
Stover - runs a firm with the disgraced Edwards, but teaches Sunday school
Helmer - sports a New Jersey accent and rales against assault rifles, that should play well in WV


All have heavy Obama connections. Helmer is retired military, and Friedman was with Veterans Affairs.


All waiting for the incumbent - who can outspend all of them - to lose her charms.


One or more of these might actually make a very good congressman, but this article certainly doesn't give one grounds for believing that it's so.


Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Daniel B. on May 04, 2018, 02:31:35 AM
The above is a textbook example of waiting for the opposition to implode so that your side will triumphantly take the hill.


I'd read the link hoping to see what strategy the Democrats would be able to pull out of the hat to slam a homerun and take the seat. Alas, another case of daring to hope, as opposed to daring to offer programs that the voters will actually be drawn to.


The Democratic hopefuls:


Wexton - a political pragmatist
Friedman - the progressive? is heir to a manufacturing dynasty and takes money from Soros
Stover - runs a firm with the disgraced Edwards, but teaches Sunday school
Helmer - sports a New Jersey accent and rales against assault rifles, that should play well in WV


All have heavy Obama connections. Helmer is retired military, and Friedman was with Veterans Affairs.


All waiting for the incumbent - who can outspend all of them - to lose her charms.


One or more of these might actually make a very good congressman, but this article certainly doesn't give one grounds for believing that it's so.


Terry

Yes, that is typically a recipe for failure.  No wonder the American public is so apathetic.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on May 04, 2018, 03:37:13 AM

DanielFrom a post of sidd's I learned that the above candidate Helmer holds an endorsement from the a CIA chief.


Winners, every one.
Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: sidd on May 04, 2018, 09:05:53 AM
Knife fights in GOP trenches:

Blakenship fresh off a (slap on the wrist for killing his coal miners) rails against Senate head honcho McConnell for obsure reasons. Blakenship is in a senate race that pits him agains incumbent Democrat Joe "Call Me Coal" Manchin:

"Swamp captain Mitch McConnell has created millions of jobs for China people. While doing so Mitch has gotten rich. In fact his China family has given him tens of millions of dollars,"

"ditch Cocaine Mitch for the sake of the kids."

"They are also childishly calling me despicable and mentally ill. "

" ... he told a local radio station that the Senate GOP leader faces conflicts of interest because the father of McConnell's wife, Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao, is a "wealthy Chinaperson." "

http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/386143-blankenship-targets-mcconnells-china-family-in-ad

sidd
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: sidd on May 04, 2018, 09:19:41 AM
More political knife fighting, and this is in Staten Island, serious Trump country.

[ Aside: I have a soft spot in my heart for the recollection of a very old woman, now dead, who used to live there some decades ago. As racist and bigoted as they come, with a stentorian voice that could stop an errrant child in its tracks three new york blocks away. But also a woman who would hector and bully young women of all races into voting on election day declaiming "I didn't march for women's voting all those years ago so you sluts could blow the whole deal."

May her own gods bless her soul. ]

Meawhile here is some street politics:

 “Lesbians for Trump”

"Republican Party leaders on Staten Island, in New York City and in Washington have thrown their weight behind Rep. Dan Donovan. They don’t like Michael Grimm, the former congressman who’s trying to win back his old seat after serving eight months in prison for tax fraud."

" ... challenging Donovan’s record of loyalty to the president."

"Grimm has taken to calling Donovan “Desperate Dan” or “Dishonest Dan.” Donovan recently released radio ads referring to Grimm as the “convict congressman.” "

“They’re morons,”

" ... 60-second radio ad that begins with a recitation of Grimm’s inmate number from his time in prison and focuses on his criminal record. "

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/02/staten-island-grimm-trump-donovan-563755

sidd
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 04, 2018, 05:32:41 PM
It will be interesting to see whether the linked poll of generic congressional ballot holds up, and whether the 8-point Democratic lead is sufficient to overcome GOP: gerrymandering, voter suppression and election tampering.

Title: "New poll: Democrats have an 8-point generic ballot lead over Republicans in the 2018 midterms"

https://www.vox.com/2018/5/3/17315970/generic-ballot-2018-midterms-democrats-republicans-monmouth-poll

Extract: "The latest 2018 elections poll is good news for Democrats — if they can keep momentum going until November.

A Monmouth University poll released Thursday shows Democrats have an 8-point lead on the GOP in the generic congressional ballot, a poll question that asks whether people would vote for a Republican or Democrat congressional candidate next year.

If the 2018 election for the House of Representatives was held today, Monmouth found that 49 percent of registered voters said they would either support or lean toward the Democratic candidate in their district, compared to 41 percent who said they would support the Republican candidate."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Daniel B. on May 04, 2018, 06:46:41 PM
More political knife fighting, and this is in Staten Island, serious Trump country.

[ Aside: I have a soft spot in my heart for the recollection of a very old woman, now dead, who used to live there some decades ago. As racist and bigoted as they come, with a stentorian voice that could stop an errrant child in its tracks three new york blocks away. But also a woman who would hector and bully young women of all races into voting on election day declaiming "I didn't march for women's voting all those years ago so you sluts could blow the whole deal."

May her own gods bless her soul. ]

Meawhile here is some street politics:

 “Lesbians for Trump”

"Republican Party leaders on Staten Island, in New York City and in Washington have thrown their weight behind Rep. Dan Donovan. They don’t like Michael Grimm, the former congressman who’s trying to win back his old seat after serving eight months in prison for tax fraud."

" ... challenging Donovan’s record of loyalty to the president."

"Grimm has taken to calling Donovan “Desperate Dan” or “Dishonest Dan.” Donovan recently released radio ads referring to Grimm as the “convict congressman.” "

“They’re morons,”

" ... 60-second radio ad that begins with a recitation of Grimm’s inmate number from his time in prison and focuses on his criminal record. "

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/02/staten-island-grimm-trump-donovan-563755

sidd

It could get interesting.  Using the data presented in the link from the past eight midterm elections, there is a high correlation between seats gained and the polling numbers.  However, it is not linear, with less seats gained as the Dems advantage increases.  The Dems need to gain 24 seats to flip the House.  In 2008, the Dems did gain 24 seats, but accomplished that with a 9.0% RCP polling advantage.  The current 6.7% RCP advantage would be close, but may fall short.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: sidd on May 07, 2018, 12:01:29 AM
America's Finest News Source:

“I’m Don Blankenship, and I’m proud to say that my vision and leadership created countless new job opportunities in the fields of search and rescue, emergency surgery, funeral services, and many more,”

https://politics.theonion.com/new-don-blankenship-campaign-ad-touts-jobs-created-in-w-1825779639

sidd
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on May 07, 2018, 02:22:31 PM
Here is the link to the Cook Report on the Senate side.  I know there has been a lot of "talk" about the Dem's taking back the senate.  Personally ..... I think that is a LONG SHOT ..... an "inside straight" type of outcome.  Possible ..... but VERY UNLIKELY.

As you can see from the Cook Report ..... there are 5 seats held by the Dem's that are tossups .... and only 3 tossups currently held by Republicans.  There are another 2 "lean" seats held by Democrat's.  Cook doesn't have Cruz's seat as a "lean" ...... they have it as "likely" Republican, so that seat could slide into the tossup category.

So again.... is it possible that the Dem's take control of the Senate? YES.  Is it likely?  NO.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/index.php/ratings/senate-race-ratings
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Daniel B. on May 07, 2018, 02:53:28 PM
Here is the link to the Cook Report on the Senate side.  I know there has been a lot of "talk" about the Dem's taking back the senate.  Personally ..... I think that is a LONG SHOT ..... an "inside straight" type of outcome.  Possible ..... but VERY UNLIKELY.

As you can see from the Cook Report ..... there are 5 seats held by the Dem's that are tossups .... and only 3 tossups currently held by Republicans.  There are another 2 "lean" seats held by Democrat's.  Cook doesn't have Cruz's seat as a "lean" ...... they have it as "likely" Republican, so that seat could slide into the tossup category.

So again.... is it possible that the Dem's take control of the Senate? YES.  Is it likely?  NO.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/index.php/ratings/senate-race-ratings

I agree that it is very unlikely.  Not to mention that of the eight seats categorized as "tossups," Trump won seven of those states, five by double digits.  The two leaning D seats are in states that were closely contested in 2016, and split by the two parties.  The chances that the Democrats win nine of these ten seats seams rather remote.  Indeed, I would say that the odds favor the GOP gaining a seat or two in the Senate during the midterms.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 07, 2018, 06:19:33 PM
America's Finest News Source:

“I’m Don Blankenship, and I’m proud to say that my vision and leadership created countless new job opportunities in the fields of search and rescue, emergency surgery, funeral services, and many more,”

https://politics.theonion.com/new-don-blankenship-campaign-ad-touts-jobs-created-in-w-1825779639

sidd

sidd,

Please stop posting links to articles in The Onion in this thread.

ASLR
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 07, 2018, 06:29:12 PM
If Blankenship gets selected as the GOP nominee in West Virginia's Republican Senate primary, the GOP's image in general will suffer w.r.t the Congressional midterm elections:

Title: "Polls show Blankenship ahead, sparking panic among GOP"

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/386498-polls-show-blankenship-ahead-sparking-panic-among-gop

Extract: "Internal Republican polls show ex-coal CEO and former convict Don Blankenship in the lead a day before West Virginia’s Republican Senate primary, prompting more GOP fears about a Blankenship surge.

An internal poll from one of Blankenship’s rivals taken on Saturday and Sunday found Blankenship slightly ahead with 31 percent of the vote, according to The Weekly Standard. Rep. Evan Jenkins came in second, with 28 percent, and state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey in third, with 27 percent.
...
The GOP views Manchin's seat as a prime pick-up opportunity to expand the party’s narrow majority in the Senate. President Trump won West Virginia by more than 40 points in 2016.

Some Republicans worry Blankenship’s controversial past could jeopardize their chances at unseating Manchin."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 07, 2018, 07:26:11 PM
While the linked article is almost a month old, the six trends of the GOP's current death spiral are worth reviewing:

Title: "These 6 Inescapable Facts Help Explain the Republican Party's Current Death Spiral"

https://www.alternet.org/news-amp-politics/these-6-inescapable-facts-help-explain-republican-partys-current-death-spiral

Extract: "No good news for the Grand Old Party."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 07, 2018, 07:56:39 PM
More evidence that the GOP is losing ground heading into the 2018 midterm elections:

Title: "Election forecaster: Nunes seat no longer ‘safe’ Republican"

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/385312-forecaster-nunes-seat-no-longer-safe-republican

Extract: "Rep. Devin Nunes’s (R) California seat is no longer considered a “safe Republican” seat, a top election forecaster said this week while shifting its outlook for several House races.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics moved Nunes’s seat to “likely Republican” as his Democratic challenger, Fresno County Deputy District Attorney Andrew Janz, continues to have fundraising success."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: sidd on May 07, 2018, 09:35:11 PM
Convicted felon Blakenship ahead in primary ? oboy.

"Blankenship slightly ahead with 31 percent of the vote, according to The Weekly Standard. Rep. Evan Jenkins came in second, with 28 percent, and state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey in third, with 27 percent."

"Another internal survey taken on Friday and Saturday also showed Blankenship with a narrow lead with 28 percent of the vote. This poll found Morrisey in second place, with 27 percent, while Jenkins received just 14 percent."

Blakenship: "I am Trumpier than Trump"

And Blakenship fires back some more:

" ... noting that Trump once urged voters to back a Republican candidate facing allegations of child molestation."

"He recommended people vote for a guy that was basically accused of pedophilia in Alabama ..."


http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/386498-polls-show-blankenship-ahead-sparking-panic-among-gop

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/386517-blankenship-hits-back-at-trump-he-backed-a-candidate-accused-of-pedophilia

sidd
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 08, 2018, 01:58:57 AM
If the GOP wants to replace Mar-a-Lago as a symbol of corruption, with their own initials, then they should keep associating with convicted felon's like Ollie North, the new president of the NRA:

Title: "Ex-White House ethics chief: Trump’s Mar-a-Lago is a ‘symbol of corruption’"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ex-white-house-ethics-chief-trump’s-mar-a-lago-is-a-‘symbol-of-corruption’/ar-AAwTXey?ocid=spartandhp

Extract: "The former director of the Office of Government Ethics says President Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort is a "symbol of corruption."

Walter Shaub in a Washington Post op-ed published Monday called Trump's nicknaming of his Florida estate the "Southern White House" a marketing pitch to people who want insider access."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 08, 2018, 04:50:26 PM
While nothing is guaranteed, the tealeaves portend a blue wave in November:

Title: "Midterms begin today: 5 sobering stats for the House GOP"

https://www.axios.com/midterm-elections-republicans-stats-trump-congress-job-approval-e0e04a32-4d43-47fd-9046-5f1ba7d6e618.html

Extract: "When a party is this badly under water in national sentiment and perception, individual candidates have a hard time distancing or distinguishing themselves. That's why a wave is apparent so early — 182 days before Election Day.

1.   Congressional job approval: -56% (that is: 73% disapprove, 17% approve).
2.   Approval of GOP tax cut: -7% (that is: 44% disapprove, 37% approve).
3.   Direction of the country: -18% (that is: 55% of people think the U.S. is on the wrong track, 37% think the U.S. is headed in the right direction).
4.   Trump job approval: -8 (that is: 52% disapprove, 44% approve).
5.   Generic congressional ballot: Democrats +6 (that is: 45% of respondents say they'll vote for Democrats for Congress, 39% say Republicans)."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 08, 2018, 04:57:54 PM
Democrat candidates are free to criticize Pelosi, so long as it helps them win:

Title: "Pelosi’s message to Dems who criticize her while campaigning: ‘Just win, baby’"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/08/nancy-pelosi-democrats-criticize-response-573362

Extract: "House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said Tuesday she is unbothered by Democrats campaigning in swing districts by pledging not to support her for speaker.

Her message to such candidates, channeling iconic former Oakland Raiders owner Al Davis: “Just win, baby.”"
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Daniel B. on May 08, 2018, 05:43:35 PM
While nothing is guaranteed, the tealeaves portend a blue wave in November:

Title: "Midterms begin today: 5 sobering stats for the House GOP"

https://www.axios.com/midterm-elections-republicans-stats-trump-congress-job-approval-e0e04a32-4d43-47fd-9046-5f1ba7d6e618.html

Extract: "When a party is this badly under water in national sentiment and perception, individual candidates have a hard time distancing or distinguishing themselves. That's why a wave is apparent so early — 182 days before Election Day.

1.   Congressional job approval: -56% (that is: 73% disapprove, 17% approve).
2.   Approval of GOP tax cut: -7% (that is: 44% disapprove, 37% approve).
3.   Direction of the country: -18% (that is: 55% of people think the U.S. is on the wrong track, 37% think the U.S. is headed in the right direction).
4.   Trump job approval: -8 (that is: 52% disapprove, 44% approve).
5.   Generic congressional ballot: Democrats +6 (that is: 45% of respondents say they'll vote for Democrats for Congress, 39% say Republicans)."

We should probably compare this election to 2006, when the Democrats regained both the House and Senate from a Republican president.

1.  2006:  Congressional job approval -50% (21 approve, 71 disapprove).  2018:  -56% 
2.  2003:  Bush tax cut +6% (45 approve, 39 disapprove).  2018:  -7%
3.  2006:  Direction of the country -47% (25 right direction, 72 wrong track).  2018 -18%
4.  2006:  Bush job approval -23 and falling.  2018:  Trump -8 and rising
5.  2006:  Dems + 11.5, gained 32 House seats.  2018:  Dems +6, ~16 seats (not enough).

In 2006, the Democrats gained 4 Senate seats, but 15 Republican Seats were up, compared to just 9 today.  I would be surprised if the Democrats make any gains here this election. 

The Democrats gained 32 House seats, and a similar results would flip the House.  Doing a very rough comparison of the two midterm elections, and using 2006 as the benchmark, here are my [math-based] conclusions:

1.  6 percentage pts. worse translates to 3 more seats, 35 total.
2.  13 percentage pts. worse translate to more, 6 more seats, 38 total.
3.  29 percentage pts. better translates to 20 less seats, 12 total.
4.  15 percentage pts. better translates to 21 less seats, 11 total, less if the trend continues.
5.  5.5 percentage pts. better translates to 15 less seats, 17 total.

The average gain is 23 House seats for the Democrats, one less than the number needed to flip.  Overall, the numbers are less favorable for the Democrats than in 2006 midterms, and even less favorable than in the 2008 general election.  The direction in which the polls are trending, however, are less favorable for the Democrats to flip the House.  Still, the snapshot today indicates that it will be close. 
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: sidd on May 08, 2018, 10:57:19 PM
This ohio race is one to watch, might give an early hint of how many trump supportes will show in november. "America First" candidate against GOP candidate in the primaries today.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/05/07/exclusive-in-ohios-trump-country-a-working-class-millennial-mother-leads-the-america-first-movement/

sidd
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: sidd on May 09, 2018, 05:28:05 AM
Convicted felon gone: good

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/08/west-virginia-primary-election-results-2018-updates-574140

sidd
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: sidd on May 09, 2018, 05:29:27 AM
Trump faction of repubs stayed home: Hagan loses in the ohio race i mentioned earlier

https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/ohio/

sidd
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 09, 2018, 07:20:14 PM
The linked article discusses how last night's Republican Primary results highlight a strong voting trend to throw-out incumbents.  While such a trend can impact both Democrat and Republican incumbents, the GOP has more to loss from this trend in the midterm elections as they  currently have more incumbents in Congress:

Title: "An Ominous Night for House Republicans"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/05/blankenship-west-virginia-republican-establishment-mcconnell-trump/560006/

Extract: "The GOP's glee over Don Blankenship's defeat in West Virginia obscures warning signs for House incumbents, who lost three out of four races for Senate and a reelection primary on Tuesday.

… Republicans relying on incumbents not only to protect the House, but also to save or expand their majority in the Senate, the party in power has more to lose."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 10, 2018, 05:39:15 PM
GOP gerrymandering in 2010 could help Democrats capture more House seats, than they otherwise would have, in 2018:

Title: "‘When gerrymandering backfires’: Democrats go after once-safe GOP seats"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/10/gerrymandering-midterms-democrats-house-seats-579890

Extract: "Republican redistricting maximized GOP gains in past years, but it could exacerbate the party’s losses in 2018."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 11, 2018, 05:45:13 PM
It is swing voters who count in the up-coming midterms, and among these key voters, Mueller is gaining credibility and Mueller hasn't even interviewed Trump yet:

Title: "First look: Mueller gains credibility among swing voters"

https://www.axios.com/donald-trump-strategy-north-korea-china-japan-a663f173-3fa6-4fbd-b93b-cdd51d6310f1.html

Extract: "Firehouse Strategies, a Republican firm, partnered with the data analytics team at Optimus to interview 2,486 likely midterm voters in four swing states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), and found that "the Mueller investigation is gaining credibility among independent voters.""
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 11, 2018, 07:59:15 PM
The Democrats should sway swing voters by calling-out GOP disregard for the law:

Title: "House Republicans Want to Straight-Up 'Break' the Actual System of Law Itself"

https://www.alternet.org/news-amp-politics/house-republicans-want-straight-break-actual-system-law-itself
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 14, 2018, 04:39:14 PM
The GOP is more underpinned by tribalism than by conviction.  This is a weakness that the Democrats can exploit in the midterm election:

Title: "Political Winds, Not Science, Sway Conservative Republicans on Climate Change"

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2018-05-10/political-winds-not-science-sway-conservative-republicans-on-climate-change?int=98f508

Extract: "In the span of just seven months under President Donald Trump, pollsters recorded a 9-point jump in registered GOP voters who believe that climate change is being mostly fueled by emissions from power plants, motor vehicles and similar activities.

The biggest swing occurred among self-described liberal and moderate Republicans, who saw a 14-point leap in the share of voters who accept climate science – more than half now agree that humans are driving climate change.

But even among conservative Republicans, that percentage rose by 5 points.

The sudden shift caused a stir among researchers with the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, which conducted the survey, as well as scholars and advocates who follow climate policy and sought to explain the change in views – especially among Republicans who were the most hard-line opponents to climate action and even climate science.

Much of the reason may be tribal politics: As Joseph Majkut, director of Climate Policy at the Niskanen Center, a libertarian think tank, points out, policies to address climate change are no longer being championed by the opposition party."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 14, 2018, 11:17:23 PM
Swing voters are smarter than the GOP thinks:

Title: "GOP tax cut not why economy is booming"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/14/tax-cut-economic-boom-republicans-584197

Extract: "Economists are rolling their eyes at candidates’ claims."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 14, 2018, 11:25:27 PM
Team Trump's counterattack may feed a coming blue wave:

Title: "Team Trump plans to go on “war footing” to fend off impeachment: It could backfire big time"

https://www.salon.com/2018/05/14/team-trump-plans-to-go-on-war-footing-to-fend-off-impeachment-it-could-backfire-big-time/

Extract: "Trump’s “witch hunt” counterattack is working — with his base. It also might strengthen the coming blue wave"
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 17, 2018, 02:07:58 PM
Here an opinion piece on how the Democrats can gain ground on the GOP:

Title: "How Democrats Can Beat Trump’s White Identity Politics"

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/opinion-patterson-identity-politics_us_5a7391a6e4b01ce33eb12c61

Extract: "How do Democrats beat Donald Trump? Start by facing an unpleasant truth: Trump’s racism helped elect him.

Why? The Democratic Party increasingly reflects the affluent and educated ― including donors. Their progressivism focuses less on economic concerns than on equity for women and minorities, and single issues like reproductive rights, gun control and environmental stewardship. All these are important ― indeed, urgent. But many white working-class Americans have different, even opposing worries, including a profound sense of economic and cultural marginalization.

Given that, Trump is gunning for race-based debates that inflame white nationalism and identity politics. By pushing immigration “reform,” he means to distract blue-collar voters from his broken promise to protect their economic security, while pretending to do just that. Because his immigration program is a blatant attack on diversity and America’s best traditions, Democrats must fight him ― which, of course, is precisely what he wants.

What he surely dreads is a Democratic party laser-focused on exposing him as the plutocrats’ best friend. To assure his own survival in the Russia investigation and in 2020, Trump means to ride racism all the way.

In the end, as a matter of demographics, white identity politics is a poison pill for Republicans. But not, perhaps, for Trump. Democrats must weave their beliefs into a larger tapestry, fusing social and economic justice in a unifying program that transcends racial identity. To be blunt, where there are white votes to be had, it serves no one for Democrats to leave them on the table.

Democrats need to say that wage stagnation and income inequality affect individual Americans and America itself, eroding opportunity and economic growth. And that racial, social and economic justice are all tributaries of a true “American exceptionalism” that unleashes the potential of all our citizens to enrich us in every sense of that word.

Among many other things, that means early childhood education; schooling and retraining for the new economy; a program to revitalize our infrastructure and create good jobs. And it means affordable ― or free ― college for worthy kids who otherwise will never go.

Which of them, after all, could be among the scientists who help stem global warming; or the entrepreneurs and innovators who improve our way of life; or the coaches and teachers who inspire our kids; or the many millions of unsung men and women who hold their families together and raise their children to go further yet? In short, the countless people who can make us a better country ― and a richer one.

Thus, Democrats must say that Americans should never live in gated communities of the spirit, defined only by the most crabbed definition of self-identity. In the long run, no race or class can do better in a society that does worse. History’s graveyard is filled with plutocracies that numbed their citizens by scapegoating imagined enemies while serving a privileged few."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Daniel B. on May 17, 2018, 02:19:33 PM
One of the problems with that strategy is that those affluent Democrats are the ones living in gated communities and benefit from wage inequality.  The Democratic party represents those at both extremes, the very wealthy and the very poor.  By contrast, the Republican party is more compact.  It is precisely this compactness that benefit Trump.  He was able to tap into the frustration of middle America towards government programs which benefitted both ends of the income scale, leaving them behind.  The Democrats need to focus on this area.  The areas mentioned are already in Democratic hands, and will not win them any new voters.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 17, 2018, 10:03:51 PM
While generic polls have their merits, but polls of highly interested voter show a much higher point advantage (than from generic polls) for the Democrats over the Republicans for the 2018 midterm elections:

Title: "Congressional Polling Versus Special Elections: Are Democrats Really Heading for a Wave?"

http://www.thecrosstab.com/2018/05/01/generic-vs-specials/

Extract: "Here’s an example: a NBC/Wall Street Journal poll from mid-April found that the Democrats have a 7-point lead among registered voters, but a 21-point advantage among those who said they have a high interest in voting. This could approximate the difference between."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on May 17, 2018, 11:12:09 PM
ASLR
Have you checked the polling differences at Fivethirtyeight between:


Polls of Adults - (10.8 )
All Polls - (10.2)
Polls of likely or registered voters - (7.3)


The above are Trump's approval - disapproval numbers, not the upcoming 2018 races.
The "generic" question asking which party they would support in the coming election shows a Democratic lead of 5.8%
Many believe that today's Gerrymandering favors Republicans by 6%


These indicate that the more likely you are to vote, the more likely you are to approve of Trump.
Ignore them at your peril.
Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 19, 2018, 12:51:27 AM
A GOP 'House divided against itself cannot stand':

Title: "Republicans claw at each other over farm bill implosion"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/18/house-republicans-farm-bill-failure-597888

Extract: "House Republicans are at each other’s throats after the Freedom Caucus delivered a shock to party leaders on Friday by killing a key GOP bill over an unrelated simmering feud over immigration.

Speaker Paul Ryan and his leadership team were sure the group of three dozen rabble-rousers would cave. The partisan farm bill, after all, includes historic new work requirements for food stamp beneficiaries that conservatives have demanded for years. Plus, President Donald Trump leaned in, tweeting his support for the bill Thursday night to up the pressure on the far right."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Daniel B. on May 19, 2018, 03:51:15 AM
Which begs the question, which party is more divided?
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on May 19, 2018, 01:06:10 PM
Ted Cruz finds himself in a much closer conflict in his re-election campaign for Senator in Texas against O’Rourke.

The latest mass shooting at Santa Fe High School in Texas will NOT help Teddy.  The NRA owns Ted.  Ted also used the firm Cambridge Analytica in his presidential run.  This will be a race to watch.

I still DONT think that the Dems can win the Senate.  Manchin is in trouble in West Virginia, Indiana is going to be problematic, and Florida could slip away from the Dems.  So the dems could lose the same amount of seats that they are able to flip (Arizona, Nevada, etc).

But Teddy is definitely scum of the earth material, so IF the Dems were able to defeat him, that would definitely be good for the country.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Daniel B. on May 19, 2018, 02:25:41 PM
Ted Cruz finds himself in a much closer conflict in his re-election campaign for Senator in Texas against O’Rourke.

The latest mass shooting at Santa Fe High School in Texas will NOT help Teddy.  The NRA owns Ted.  Ted also used the firm Cambridge Analytica in his presidential run.  This will be a race to watch.

I still DONT think that the Dems can win the Senate.  Manchin is in trouble in West Virginia, Indiana is going to be problematic, and crook and Florida could slip away from the Dems.  So the dems could losing the same amount of seats that they are able to flip (Arizona, Nevada, etc).

But Teddy is definitely scum of the earth material, so IF the Dems were able to defeat him, that would definitely be good for the country.

Agreed.  The demographics are not good for a democratic takeover of the Senate.  Too many closed races in red states.  I would not be surprised if they came through the midterms with fewer seats.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 20, 2018, 07:01:24 PM
A GOP Senate divided against itself cannot stand:

Title: "Blankenship wages war on GOP after losing Senate primary "

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/20/blankenship-gop-senate-west-virginia-senate-598053

Extract: "Blankenship has said the GOP’s newly minted Senate nominee, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, would likely lose in the fall — and promised to work to defeat him. He’s not the only sore loser: In Ohio, businessman Mike Gibbons is harboring lingering frustration over Rep. Jim Renacci's primary tactics during their Senate race, according to a Republican close to Gibbons, and is not yet prepared to endorse the congressman’s campaign."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 21, 2018, 03:26:37 AM
The House is currently rudderless with its lame duck Speaker; which could have major repercussions on the GOP congressional races during the midterms:

Title: "Paul Ryan's House is collapsing"

https://www.axios.com/paul-ryan-house-republicans-speaker-kevin-mccarthy-jim-jordan-a10fa352-29a3-4ea7-bb57-7a18725be1f8.html

Extract: "Paul Ryan's House is collapsing, and if the chaos keeps accelerating it could force him out of the speakership before his planned graceful exit at the end of the year:

The Republican House is careening into chaos at the moment its members most need to rally together. We're less than six months away from the midterms, and the House is on the line. Hill Republicans are anxious and effectively leaderless. Nobody fears repercussions from a lame duck Speaker. So even the usually well-behaved moderate members are wreaking havoc."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 21, 2018, 08:52:41 PM
The GOP should tremble as they read these articles about the strength that comes from the Democrats' diversity:

Extract: "Surge of female candidates reshapes Democratic Party"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/21/women-2020-elections-599591

Extract: "A string of victories for women in primary elections across the country is beginning to reshape the face of the Democratic Party and accelerate a conversation about its future — with consequences that reach well beyond the 2018 midterm election horizon."

&

Title: "Snubbed in past, black Dems seek big gains in 2018"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/21/black-candidates-democrats-2018-599588

Extract: "After years of brush-offs by local and national Democratic groups, donors and operatives are putting new muscle behind black candidates in the 2018 midterms."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: JimD on May 25, 2018, 04:24:14 PM
An item for this topic which will work against the R's is the rise in fuel prices.

High fuel prices hit the lower incomes much harder than anyone else so this does have some potential to impact the election if they continue for long. Though it is worth pointing out that Trumps core is mostly middle class and not poor and thus somewhat immune to the fuel prices. But it is the overall economy which is key and a downturn of any kind is bad news.

With prices rising so far there will certainly be a surge in production efforts and most all of that will be via fracking.  A counter balance to the high prices on workers will be that in a few of the red states there will be a surge in employment in the fracking businesses and this will improve the economic situation for some.  An interesting dynamic which may have some impact.  It is always possible that the administration/congress uses their power to tax (or not) and intervenes in the market to help their political cause also.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Susan Anderson on May 26, 2018, 01:32:32 AM
JimD, you're right about fuel prices. Trump/Bolton/Pompeo's idiocy about Iran will not turn out well for R's.

Though, to be honest, we need at least $1/gallon tax. Still getting the R's out of office is the teeniest start towards recovering from the monstrous ascendancy of lies and hatred.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 27, 2018, 04:21:55 PM
The surge of Democratic women will contribute to the blue wave in 2018:

Title: "Women surging in Democratic politics for 2018, 2020"

https://www.axios.com/women-presidential-candidates-2020-democratic-party-trump-7e6069aa-fc74-449a-99dd-273fc1dd44c6.html

Extract: "The biggest trend in midterm Democratic politics is women kicking ass, a sign of energy and momentum for women presidential candidates in 2020."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 28, 2018, 05:38:27 AM
GOP infighting in the California US House fight could cost the Republicans control of the US House:

Title: "Republicans turn on each other in California US House fight"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/republicans-turn-on-each-other-in-california-us-house-fight/ar-AAxSns9?ocid=spartandhp

Extract: "What was once a political kinship forged around the values of the Reagan revolution has deteriorated into a nasty rivalry in a state where Republicans can scarcely afford it."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 29, 2018, 03:19:17 AM
The GOP keeps shooting itself in the foot:

Title: "Republican congressman will quit Congress: "I am an alcoholic""

https://www.axios.com/republican-rep-tom-garrett-alcoholic-1527545982-43498f8a-0d5a-4edb-9ed2-10ae1922b6c1.html?utm_source=sidebar

Extract: "Rep. Tom Garrett of Virginia announced Monday that he is an alcoholic and won't run for re-election, just days after a Politico report on his treatment of staff. In a statement, the Virginia Republican denied the staff treatment allegations.

Why it matters: Garrett's exit from the race moves his district from a "Likely R to Leans R," tweeted election analyst Kyle Konkik."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 29, 2018, 03:23:25 AM
Younger Democratic candidates are adding momentum towards a blue wave in November:

Title: "Millennials take on Trump in the midterms"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/28/democrats-millennials-midterm-elections-610024

Extract: "Younger candidates are flooding Democratic congressional primaries — and winning."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 29, 2018, 05:13:23 PM
Per the linked Reuters poll information from last week (to June 24), the Dems are leading the GOP in the midterm race for Congressional seats:

Title: "Thinking about the elections in 2018, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live?"

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TM1212Y17/type/smallest/filters/PD1:1/dates/20180101-20180524/collapsed/true
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 30, 2018, 10:06:28 PM
Republicans are an endangered species in California:

Title: "California Republicans hit rock bottom"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/30/california-republicans-third-party-status-613568

Extract: "In the culmination of the withered state GOP’s long slide toward near-political irrelevance here, new voter registration data released this week show the once-robust party trails behind both Democrats and “no party preference” in the nation's most populous state. The California Republican Party is now outnumbered by independent voters by 73,000, according to Political Data Inc., which tabulates voter file data from county registrars."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 06, 2018, 07:53:41 PM
Based on the California primary results, the Democrats are on track to gain control of the House in the mid-term elections:

Title: "California’s primary results suggest Democrats are on track for a House majority"

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/6/17433846/california-primary-results-democratic-majority

Extract: "Tuesday night’s California primary election results confirm that, as best we can tell, Democrats are on track to secure a narrow House majority in the 2018 midterms."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 06, 2018, 08:13:13 PM
Schumer thinks that the Democrats have a 'very good chance' of taking control of the Senate in the midterm elections:

Title: "Schumer: Democrats could take Senate majority"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/06/democrats-senate-majority-2018-schumer-629123

Extract: "‘When you look race by race, we have a very good chance,’ he said in an interview.

But five months before the election, Schumer insisted he’s optimistic, touting internal Democratic polls that show even Trump backers in six deep-red states prefer a Democrat who can counter the president.

“As Trump’s going up, our senators are going up in the polling,” Schumer said, crediting a crop of Democratic incumbents “who are identified with their own states, as opposed to identified with Washington and the national party.“ "
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 07, 2018, 12:12:30 AM
McConnell would not announce his plan to cancel the Senate's August recess unless he was concerned that he is going to lose control of the Senate after the midterm elections:

Title: "Mitch McConnell cancels Senate’s August recess"

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/5/17430518/mcconnell-cancels-august-recess-congress-midterms

Extract: "McConnell’s decision could also have a consequential impact on the midterms. By keeping incumbent senators tied to Washington, the majority leader forces vulnerable Democrats — and Republicans — to reconfigure their campaign schedules or weigh the consequences of skipping out on work."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Daniel B. on June 07, 2018, 01:42:45 PM
While the House is definitely up for grabs, I view a Democratic takeover of the Senate as a long shot.  With 35 Senates seat up for election this year, the Republicans just need to win 8 to keep control.  Six of those eight are in relatively safe states.  Eighteen are considered safe Democratic seats.  That leaves eleven being highly contested.  Of those, ten are in states that Trump won in 2016.  Early polling indicates that all these races will be close.  As far as winning a Republican seat, Arizona and Nevada seem to offer the best chances.  That said, the Democrats must retain all their seats, which may be difficult in states like Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia, and especially Florida.  The main advantage that the Democrats have is the unpopularity of Trump.  The disadvantage is that neither Trump nor the economy has imploded.  Pedictit has the Democrats with a 30% chance to win the Senate.  CNBC expects the Republican to increase their Senate majority. 
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on June 07, 2018, 08:20:11 PM
A few months ago I said to watch a few things this election cycle:

1)  Watch the "Parkland crew" and gun control movement.  At the time I said I thought that the Parkland folks didn't look like they would "run out of gas"..... and I said I expected their momentum to keep moving forward.  So far... so good.  They AREN'T going to quit.

2)  Watch the stock market.  I said that I thought there was a very good chance that the S&P gets down to somewhere in the 1,800 - 2,000 level.  The market has a LONG WAY to go.... and I still think it can "get there".

3)  Russian Investigation.  I said back in late Feb/early March that things would be "picking up" come the "ides of March" (March 15th).  They have indeed.... and we have further to go, with MANY....MANY....MORE INDICTMENTS TO COME.

We'll see how those three items play out over the coming months.  Donnie is in BIGLY TROUBLE, along with most of his family, his personal attorney, and many folks both in Congress now... and some that WERE in Congress (Right Jason Chaffetz).



Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 07, 2018, 11:53:03 PM
In the midterm election Trump will likely act as an albatross around the collective GOP neck:

Title: "Poll: Almost half of voters more likely to pick candidate who would be check on Trump"

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news-campaigns/391129-poll-almost-half-of-voters-more-likely-to-pick

Extract: " Almost half of voters in a new poll say they want to elect congressional candidates in the midterms who will serve as a check to President Trump's power in Washington.
The NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey released Thursday found that 48 percent of voters say they are more likely to support a candidate in the November midterms who promises to be a check on Trump. Less than one-quarter, 23 percent, said the opposite.
Pollsters also found that more than half of voters, 53 percent, said they are less likely to support a congressional candidate who supports some or most of Trump's signature issues. Less than one-third, 31 percent, would back a candidate who supports Trump's issues."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 08, 2018, 12:16:53 AM
After the latest round of primaries, Fivethirtyeight estimates increased chances that the Democrats will gain seats in Congress:
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 12, 2018, 07:55:39 PM
Hopefully, there will be a voter backlash against this un-American behavior by the GOP:

Title: "Fraud Fiction Becomes Purge Reality"

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/06/supreme-court-husted-decision-will-disenfranchise-minority-and-low-income-voters.html

Extract: "The Supreme Court’s decision in Husted v. A. Philip Randolph Institute is the culmination of a decades-long effort to disenfranchise minority and low-income voters."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 15, 2018, 06:09:42 PM
The Democrats are gaining ground in their effort to try to gain control of the Senate in the midterms, but they still have an uphill battle ahead of them:

Title: "Shrinking map boosts Democrats in battle for the Senate"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/15/senate-midterms-map-republicans-majority-democratic-incumbents-646183

Extract: "The Senate battleground map has shrunk dramatically in recent weeks — a net plus for Democrats but not enough to change their status as heavy underdogs to win the chamber in November.

Democratic incumbents look increasingly safe in four Rust Belt states President Trump carried in 2016 — Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where Republicans are locked in a bitter primary until August. Both parties agree a core universe of states are truly in play: Republicans are targeting Democratic incumbents in Missouri, Indiana, Florida and North Dakota, while Democrats are contesting GOP-held seats in Nevada, Arizona and Tennessee. There is disagreement on how competitive West Virginia and Montana are."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Susan Anderson on June 16, 2018, 08:30:25 PM
For those interested in US politics at the state level, this is interesting. I rely on 538, as its proven methodology takes out some of the extremes and biases. However, Trump's evaluation has a 3-7 day lag (he's still getting a bump from Korea).

How Trump’s Popularity Is Holding Up, By State https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-trumps-popularity-is-holding-up-by-state/ (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-trumps-popularity-is-holding-up-by-state/)

For those who think we are monolithic, the state by state percentages might help them see that is not the case. I did have a quibble when I looked at Massachusetts (where I vote), since I know Clinton won by 27% and I see Trump at -4% in January 2017. Anyone who wants that overview for comparison, try this: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president (https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president)
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on June 21, 2018, 06:20:06 PM
There are 4 Senate seats that now look like they will go to the Republican's in November (according to most current polls):

1)  Indiana (currently held by Dem running for re-election)
2)  North Dakota (currently held by Dem running for re-election)
3)  Florida (currently held by Dem. running for re-election)
4)  Texas (currently held by Repub Cruz running for re-election).

These aren't the only "close ones" .... but these are the "close ones most likely to go to Republicans".

But ALL of them are still fairly close.... at least at this early date.  So anything could happen.  Will Ted Cruz stumble as he tries to massage the possibility of running for prez again while at the same time trying to beat O'Rourke for his senate seat in November?

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ted-cruz-is-running-again-trump-is-still-making-things-complicated/ar-AAyWSzT?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 21, 2018, 10:22:58 PM
Democrats target turning out minority voters in battleground districts:

Title: " Where the DNC is targeting unregistered minority voters"

https://www.axios.com/dnc-2018-plan-minority-voter-outreach-3824f23e-73f9-42b0-ac78-62338599de4f.html

Extract: "The Democratic National Committee is investing $2.5 million to turn out minority voters from St. Louis to Maine for this November's midterm election, per NYT's Astead Herndon.

Why it matters: This might be the party's largest plan yet to target minorities, specifically those who don't typically vote, in a midterm election year. As the base of the Democratic Party, these voters could help Democrats take back the House."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 24, 2018, 06:02:53 PM
Even if the bills to prevent Trump from appearing on state ballots unless he releases his tax returns are eventually found to be unconstitutional, still the trolling effect alone might impact the 2018 midterm elections:

Title: "The big picture: The state efforts to keep Trump off the 2020 ballot"

https://www.axios.com/states-tax-return-laws-presidential-2020-trump-88e84cce-7214-409d-b4c7-a24aad919bdb.html

Extract: "
Lawmakers in at least 25 states have introduced bills that would require presidential candidates to release their tax returns to appear on the 2020 ballot in that state — a clear swipe at President Trump, the only modern president who's refused to release his personal tax returns.

Why it matters: In theory, Trump could be blocked from the ballot in any state where the new requirement became law. But not a single state has enacted it so far, and the governors of California and New Jersey have vetoed it after it passed both state chambers. It's more interesting as a way for state Democrats to troll Trump than as an actual re-election threat.

Where it stands: Rhode Island is the latest state to pass this measure through its state Senate, according to the Providence Journal, and Maryland's state Senate passed a bill in May. Both will now move to their states' House of Delegates for consideration.

One big problem: It might not be constitutional for a state to require presidential candidates to release their tax returns in order to get ballot access. The U.S. Supreme Court has previously ruled that neither states nor the federal government can create additional qualifications for congressional representatives or senators, per AP, and various legal experts anticipate that would extend to presidential candidates.

Battle lines: Rhode Island Democratic state legislators argue that “tax returns provide essential information about candidates’ conflicts of interest." "
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on June 24, 2018, 06:37:48 PM
If I were Traitor Don .... I would be worried about the latest polls in Florida.  Travis Marketing shows Nelson up by 10 points ..... 50% to 40% over Rick Scott for the senate seat now held by Nelson.  Public Policy has Nelson up by 2%.  Scott had been leading in ALL polls until recently.

The Governors race is also leaning to the Democrats.  I sure don’t hope the Dems win BOTH the Governors race AND the Florida Attourney General race.  Then Donnie is likely to be investigated for the crooked things he is doing at Mar a Lago.  And we wouldn’t want that.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: SteveMDFP on June 24, 2018, 11:11:00 PM
Even if the bills to prevent Trump from appearing on state ballots unless he releases his tax returns are eventually found to be unconstitutional, still the trolling effect alone might impact the 2018 midterm elections:

Title: "The big picture: The state efforts to keep Trump off the 2020 ballot"

https://www.axios.com/states-tax-return-laws-presidential-2020-trump-88e84cce-7214-409d-b4c7-a24aad919bdb.html

Extract: "
Lawmakers in at least 25 states have introduced bills that would require presidential candidates to release their tax returns to appear on the 2020 ballot in that state — a clear swipe at President Trump, the only modern president who's refused to release his personal tax returns.

Why it matters: In theory, Trump could be blocked from the ballot in any state where the new requirement became law. But not a single state has enacted it so far, and the governors of California and New Jersey have vetoed it after it passed both state chambers. It's more interesting as a way for state Democrats to troll Trump than as an actual re-election threat.


Show less





Where it stands: Rhode Island is the latest state to pass this measure through its state Senate, according to the Providence Journal, and Maryland's state Senate passed a bill in May. Both will now move to their states' House of Delegates for consideration.

One big problem: It might not be constitutional for a state to require presidential candidates to release their tax returns in order to get ballot access. The U.S. Supreme Court has previously ruled that neither states nor the federal government can create additional qualifications for congressional representatives or senators, per AP, and various legal experts anticipate that would extend to presidential candidates.

Battle lines: Rhode Island Democratic state legislators argue that “tax returns provide essential information about candidates’ conflicts of interest." "

It's an interesting effort.  Legal minds disagree on the Consitutionality of such laws. I think the Supreme Court might well strike them down as formulated, based on prior precedents about candidate's access to the ballots.  That is, the  Consitution states qualifications for being President, and States cannot add to them.

However, all 50 states have provisions for when a given party candidate can get expedited access to the ballot, based on criteria such as the percent of voters registering with that party, or number of voters in that party's primary--it varies by State.

I think any state could limit that "fast-lane" access to the Presidential ballot to candidates who have released several years of complete tax returns.  Without the ability to run under the Democratic or  Republican banners, they'd  just be listed with all the "third-party" candidates.  They'd also face the more burdensome requirements that all the minor parties suffer to get listed on the ballot.

Procedurally, each such state could simply require that the signed letter from the fast-lane access party Chairman to  affirm,  under penalty of perjury, that the candidate has released tax returns.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Daniel B. on June 25, 2018, 12:12:14 AM
I would be extremely surprised if scotus allowed these requirements.  If they did, it could set a disturbing precedent, with the Republicans countering with ballot restrictions in red states.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 25, 2018, 04:56:54 PM
The bottom line: "… the #NeverHillary Independents from 2016 could tip the scale toward Democrats in 2018".

Title: "Meet the 2018 swing voter: #NeverHillary Independents"

https://www.axios.com/2018-midterms-swing-voter-never-hillary-independents-90c2eca4-b415-4ac8-afe4-35b917c8d271.html

Extract: "The bottom line: If nearly half of voters say their support of a Democratic candidate is in opposition to President Trump and the GOP, the #NeverHillary Independents from 2016 could tip the scale toward Democrats in 2018."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 25, 2018, 05:05:15 PM
I would be extremely surprised if scotus allowed these requirements.  If they did, it could set a disturbing precedent, with the Republicans countering with ballot restrictions in red states.

As the cult of Trumpism has taken over the GOP, perhaps if liberal democracy around the world strikes back via targeted sanctions against the Trump Organization; this could help bring Trump to his knees and by extension, help the Democrats in 2018, and SCOTUS could not interfere:

Title: "America’s allies should respond to steel tariffs with targeted sanctions on the Trump Organization"

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/5/17422492/sanction-trump-organization

Extract: "Forget retaliating against America; retaliate against something Trump cares about: his money."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on June 26, 2018, 04:06:06 PM
Anyone want to run against MJ Hegar?  Democrat.....in a RED district in Texas.  Long odds .... but I would be worried if I were running against her.  3 minute video clip.... 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zi6v4CYNSIQ

When you are going up against people with HEART, HARD WORKING, AND ETHICS ...... you know you are going to be in a tough battle.




Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on June 26, 2018, 05:58:46 PM
I suppose it's legal to go after an opponent by proposing obviously unconstitutional bills, but it's an obvious waste of time and resources. If my Rep. was playing silly games like this instead of working on relevant legislation I might be tempted to vote for someone else come November. >:(


Low voter turnout may result from these grade school antics.

Terry




Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Daniel B. on June 26, 2018, 07:00:07 PM
I suppose it's legal to go after an opponent by proposing obviously unconstitutional bills, but it's an obvious waste of time and resources. If my Rep. was playing silly games like this instead of working on relevant legislation I might be tempted to vote for someone else come November. >:(


Low voter turnout may result from these grade school antics.

Terry

Yeah, makes you wonder if that is the type of person you want representing you.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on June 27, 2018, 12:53:32 PM
Donnie should be more worried after Ocasio-Cortez beat Crowley last night in New York.  The Dems are fielding some really good candidates.  She has degrees in Economics and International Studies.  She is PASSIONATE, well spoken, and energetic.  She has worked as a community organizer .... and even though she was out spent 18 - 1 ....  she got it done last night.  The Dems are in BETTER shape today with her, than they were yesterday with Crowley.

I STILL think it is likely that beady eyed Medicare crook Rick Scott will win in Florida, but yet another poll out last night shows him behind.😬

Dems chance of winning the Senate looks VERY SLIM indeed, but if you play the game with passion, you never know how things will ultimately play out.  Just ask soon to be former Representative Crowley.

In Texas, Cruz has a still sizeable lead in the polls over O’Rourke.  I REALLY like O’Rourke.  Sharp guy, passionate, good communicator .... Would LOVE to see him find a way to beat Cruz.  If he does ... I’ll buy everyone a pint!!!

If BOTH Cruz and Scott were to be defeated.... that would be earth shattering.  The chances of that happening are small indeed.  But things are going to get very dicey for candidates who embrace Trump over the next few months.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Daniel B. on June 27, 2018, 05:29:12 PM
Not sure that the NY result matters all that much.  The Dems were not losing that seat, regardless of the candidate.  I agree that Scott will probably win Florida.  Most polls show him with the lead, albeit slight.  Cruz looks even safer in redder Texas.  If they both win, the GOP needs to win just one of IN, TN, MO, ND, NV, WV.  I think the Dems will prevail in AZ, OH, and MT, but winning all six of those red states is a daunting task. 

Why do you think that things will get dicey for those candidates embracing Trump?
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on June 27, 2018, 10:30:36 PM
NY is important as it illustrates the point that a progressive candidate, unencumbered by Corporate cash can win even when outspent 18 to 1.
The DNC & DCCC must be horrified as this exemplifies just how weak their slate is when challenged from the left.
Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on June 28, 2018, 03:42:56 PM
The Supreme Court nomination may come back to haunt Traitor Donnie.  I would keep my eyes peeled on Texas and Florida.  Those are BOTH states where I thought the Republicans.... (1) Cruz, the incumbent in Texas, and (2) Scott, the current governor of Florida ...... would win those contests.

Florida has tightened up A LOT in the last few weeks, and Scott is actually behind in a few polls.  In Texas, Cruz is still up "comfortably" by 7 - 10 points.  But we will see if the fact that we now know that Donnie is going to pick at least one more Supreme Court Justice will sway some of the moderates in Texas to go with O'Rourke.  I really DON'T know what the effect will be, if any, but we are about to find out.

In Missouri ..... the largest nail manufacturer in the US is getting HAMMERED  ;) by the sanctions of Traitor Trump.  There just HAPPENS to be a VERY CLOSE SENATE contest in Missouri .... and Trump's sanctions are NOT going to help him there.

The US federal prosecutors will get the last of the "Cohen information" by July 5th.  Trump's COMPANY ..... has stepped in and is fighting to get some of it restricted by "attorney client privilege" ...... So the last 20,000 pieces of documentation are "up in the air" until that time.

I sure hope there aren't any tapes of Donnie on the phone with Michael Cohen.  Because if there are .... we will certainly hear what they are saying.  If the Democrat's win back EITHER the Senate or the House..... then that body will certainly have PUBLIC SESSIONS with people like Donnie Jr and others being put on the hot seat.

Sure seems like Trump Inc is REALLY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT MICHAEL COHEN HAS IN HIS POSESSION.  The only reason to worry, is that THEY HAVE SOMETHING TO HIDE.....OR..... MANY THINGS TO HIDE.

Next several weeks are KEY for Traitor Don..... and will likely effect what strategy he chooses with respect to Rosenstein, Mueller, et al.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-casts-doubt-on-russian-election-meddling-ahead-of-putin-summit/ar-AAzhCXm?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp

Keep your eyes and mind wide open.......
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on June 28, 2018, 05:11:14 PM
11th District of New Jersey ...... Mikie Sherrill vs Jay Webber (R)

Take a look at this SHORT video clip of Mikie Sherrill.   This is the type of great candidates that the Democrat's are finally bringing to the game:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIOwPOlW_-4

When you have GOOD, SHARP, ETHICAL folks ...... good things eventually happen.  I wouldn't want to be running against Mikie Sherrill that is for sure.   She is currently up by 4% in the polls .....

Since the district was "redistricted" in the 1980's ..... (by state republicans) the seat has been held by Republicans.  Right now ..... Mikie Sherrill (Democrat) is 4 points up in the latest poll.    This is rated a "toss up" right now.

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on July 09, 2018, 12:41:10 PM
It’s early ..... still 4 months till elections .... but the “Cook Political Report” has 62 seats in the US House of Representatives AT RISK OF FLIPPING to the other party..... and 56 if those are at risk to flip to the Democrat’s and only 6 are at risk to flip to the Republicans.  Hopefully the Dem’s won’t read the good press, and instead keep on working hard on a grass roots basis.

The Republican who beat Eric Cantor 4 years ago is now being threatened by a really good candidate ... ex CIA employee .... female.  It is GREAT to see so many females stepping up to the plate.  I guess they figured out that they need to actually play in the game instead of watching from the stands ... if they wanted anything to get done.

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 09, 2018, 04:09:33 PM
Run, Beto, run!  In an uphill race, who knows whether Beto can pass Ted.

Title: "Beto-mania Sweeps Texas"

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/07/09/beto-mania-sweeps-texas-218961

Extract: "Ted Cruz’s long-shot challenger is drawing riotous crowds. Is it enough?
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: jacksmith4tx on July 09, 2018, 04:28:19 PM
Well Beto has the Willie Nelson vote!
https://www.civilized.life/articles/ted-cruz-rival-beto-orourke-jams-with-willie-nelson/

Full disclosure, my son is a member of his campaign team and I chipped in a $250 contribution.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on July 12, 2018, 03:53:55 PM
The Real Clear Politics map for the US House Of Representatives shows a real dog fight going on.

The most recent map shows Democrat's with 199, Republicans with 202, and TOSSUP (too close to call) 34.  So the Dem's would have to capture 19 of the 34 too close to call in order to win back the house (218 seats would be a majority).  Note that 32 of the 34 "too close to call" seats are currently held by Republicans.  Only two of those are now held be the Democrat's.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

It should be noted that the Dem's have a "solid" 175 while the Republicans have a "solid" 171.  So there are more "at risk" seats on the Republican side right now.

But it's early ..... too early ..... to draw any conclusions, other than the Republicans are likely to LOSE SEATS.  How many .... we'll have to wait.  Plenty of time for Traitor Donnie to stick his oversized foot in his mouth ...... and plenty of time for things to "hit the fan" in the Mueller investigation.

On the senate side ..... The Dem's probably have as much chance as winning the Senate as I do of winning a PGA golfing event (pretty darn close to ZERO ..... OK, maybe they have a slightly better chance..... but not much better).

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on July 12, 2018, 04:23:47 PM

It should be noted that the Dem's have a "solid" 175 while the Republicans have a "solid" 171.  So there are more "at risk" seats on the Republican side right now.

But it's early ..... too early ..... to draw any conclusions, other than the Republicans are likely to LOSE SEATS.  How many .... we'll have to wait.  Plenty of time for Traitor Donnie to stick his oversized foot in his mouth ...... and plenty of time for things to "hit the fan" in the Mueller investigation.

On the senate side ..... The Dem's probably have as much chance as winning the Senate as I do of winning a PGA golfing event (pretty darn close to ZERO ..... OK, maybe they have a slightly better chance..... but not much better).

I finally agree with you on something- zero chance for the Dems to take the senate, probably GOP will gain 1-3 seats. In the house I predict a gain for the Dems of 5-15.

As far as time for the president to mess up and create a losing cascade....he has just as much time to do something positive that would create a bigger hardship for the Dems .(...positive Marijuana legislation maybe ?)

Bottom line. There is no blue wave coming unless something big and bad happens.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on July 12, 2018, 06:08:17 PM
Quote
I finally agree with you on something

You were bound to get something right EVENTUALLY.  Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while.   ;)
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 15, 2018, 09:56:03 AM
The GOP is on the run:

Title: "A New Fox News Poll Should Scare the Hell Out of Republicans as 2018 Midterms Loom"

https://www.alternet.org/new-fox-news-poll-should-scare-hell-out-republicans-2018-midterms-loom

See also:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjqoRsBnh4c
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on July 15, 2018, 10:00:43 AM
Quote
I finally agree with you on something

You were bound to get something right EVENTUALLY.  Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while.   ;)

Hehe, the one to something right is you :)   No blue wave a coming.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: SteveMDFP on July 15, 2018, 05:48:47 PM
The GOP is on the run:

Title: "A New Fox News Poll Should Scare the Hell Out of Republicans as 2018 Midterms Loom"

https://www.alternet.org/new-fox-news-poll-should-scare-hell-out-republicans-2018-midterms-loom
 

It's a pretty thorough discussion of a single poll.  I find it more illuminating to look at 538 dot com's meta-analysis of multiple different polls over time, which suggests a widening advantage for Democrats over recent weeks, now an almost 9-point D advantage:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo)

It shouldn't come as a surprise.  The Trump administration has executed a remarkable string of foul-ups that a majority of Americans are likely to be unhappy with

-most critically, separating young children from their asylum-seeking parents at the southern border,  and  now being unable to reunite many of these families.  Some parents were  deported without their children, and there's no mechanism to track the parents or reunite the families.  Stories of state-kidnapped children will continue through election day
-destroying  relations with NATO partners
-a summit for show only with NKorea, that advances no Western interests
-nominating another very conservative judge to the Supreme Court that is likely to vote to overturn Roe v Wade, a legal standard that most  Americans want to keep in place
-an extremely ill-advised set of unilateral tariffs that are now edging into a trade war with China.  Corporate interests are becoming increasingly alarmed 
-repeated efforts to undermine Obamacare, with premium increases that will  be announced before election day
-and, of course, a steady pace of more indictments and imminently a criminal trial for Manafort.

None of these issues will go away before election day.  The chart from Nate Silver is suggesting momentum for the Democrats.

Still, flipping the Senate seems improbable. Flipping the House is, I think, quite likely.  Not only will this flummox Trump's legislative agenda, it will mean investigative hearings into Administration misconduct that will dominate headlines for the two additional years until the next election cycle.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on July 19, 2018, 04:45:38 AM
Blue tide continues to rise.  If you follow “The Cook Political Report” you see every couple of days where races slip from “lean Republican” to “tossup” or “solid Republican” to “lean Republican” or “tossup” to “lean Democrat”.  Over the last week seats have slipped in Iowa, Michigan, Texas and elsewhere.

After the New York Times article tonight, Republicans will come under increasing pressure.  So will the Supreme Court nominee.

Things continue to speed up ....  and LOTS of Republicans in trouble.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on July 19, 2018, 04:35:59 PM
These are some of the things that have "washed up with the blue tide" over the past week per the "Cook Political Report".

* Iowa 3rd district:  Moves from "Lean Republican to tossup" (July 18th)

* Ohio 12th district special election:  "Going down to the wire" (it IS/SHOULD BE a solid Red district) (July 18th).  Note... election is next month.

* Michigan 8th district:  Bishop moves from "Lean Republican to tossup" (July 13th)

* Illinois 13th district:  Davis moves from "Likely Republican to Lean Republican" (July 13th)


None are moving the OTHER DIRECTION right now.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on July 19, 2018, 04:53:13 PM


https://www.cookpolitical.com/

Nice site- thnx!

From the same site the senate seems to be sticking red and even more so . No "lean-R" and only 3 tossup. Dem side 2 "lean-D" and 5 tossup. Interesting.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on July 20, 2018, 09:07:15 AM
Gallup poll on what the people think are the most pressing problems today.
Russia is practically non existent.


Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: jacksmith4tx on July 20, 2018, 01:47:37 PM
Here is a brand new poll on the Helsinki meeting.
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/Half-of-Americans-agree-Trump-acted-treasonous-at-Helsinki-Summit

The sample includes 338 Democrats, 329 Republicans, and 224 Independents, about half the number of the Gallup poll.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on July 20, 2018, 05:28:49 PM
From Cook Political Report on July 18th:

New FEC Data Points to Severe Risk for House GOP

Quote

If the 2018 cycle has made anything clear, Donald Trump is the best fundraiser Democratic candidates have ever had. Democrats only need to pick up 23 GOP seats for House control, but their donors' desperation to thwart the president helped Democratic candidates out-raise a jaw-dropping 55 GOP House incumbents in the last three months. And 18 Democrats in GOP-held seats raised more than $1 million (not including self-funders).

For context, in the GOP wave of 2010, 44 Democratic incumbents were out-raised by GOP candidates during the same period, according to Politico's Elena Schneider. But that year, Republicans needed to pick up 40 seats for control, nearly twice what Democrats need now.

In other words .... KEEP TWEETING DONNIE....

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/new-fec-data-points-severe-risk-house-gop
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on July 27, 2018, 02:43:18 PM
I think most of you can now see how the Mueller and Cohen investigations are now overlapping with the coming election ..... and the decisions that Republicans are now going to be faced with in the coming weeks:

1). At what point do we cut the limb that Donnie is now on? When do cut our relationship with Donnie, and let the impeachment process start?

2). Who is going to ask Donnie to resign?  We’re a month or two away from this ...... but as polling for Republican Congressional candidates continues to deteriorate ...... and information about Trump lying on several fronts, Republicans won’t be able to run away.  Donnie’s filth that is covering them can not be easily washed off.  Pressure to ask for Trumps resignation won’t reach this point until more and more Republican Congressmen see their poll numbers drop.  The next 5 weeks or so will be very telling.

3). It is now clear that Republicans are going to face not only Donnie being kicked out of office ..... but also our friend Mikey Pence..... he is toast.  Are the Republicans going to push them both out of office BEFORE the November elections?  And if they do ..... who are they going to have as the leader of the House?  Paul Ryan has issues because he has KNOWN some of the things that have been going on with the NRA/RNC and Trump.  That will likely “disqualify” Ryan in the eyes of the Republicans.  So will the Republicans push out Ryan, and who will they replace him with? 

If the Republicans lose the House this November ...... they may very well lose the head of the Oval Office to the Dems.  As I said more than a year ago ..... timing will be everything.  Are Donnie and Mikey removed at about the same time?  Do the Democrats slow down the process so that Donnie and Mikey aren’t removed until AFTER the new Congress is seated in January, so that they will “slide into” the Oval Office?

There are likely several ways this can work out ..... and nobody knows for sure how things will shake out.  And if things look bad for the Republicans NOW ..... wait till 2020 when the Republicans have twice the seats at risk as the Democrats do in the Senate.

Over the next couple of years ..... if the Democrats win the House, there will be very PUBLIC hearings on the entire RussiaGate issue.  And there WILL BE a unbiased blue ribbon panel to make changes. 

Next couple months should be fascinating ......
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on July 27, 2018, 03:13:51 PM
OUCH .....

Poll shows Trump's reelection support in key Midwestern states is slipping

Does President Trump deserve to be re-elected?

Minnesota:  30%

Wisconsin:  31%


Michigan:  28%


Also of note .... in a recent poll, Scott Walker is behind by 13% in his quest for re-election in his Governor's race in Wisconsin.  He is supported by the Koch Brothers...  And even though he is not a "Trump guy" .... he IS a Republican, and now in trouble according to the polls.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-reelection-poll-numbers-2018-7
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 30, 2018, 03:19:27 AM
The GOP are slipping into the valley of darkness:

Title: "5 metrics that suggest Democrats are poised for big wins 100 days to the midterms"

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/29/politics/5-metrics-100-days-midterms/index.html
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on August 01, 2018, 11:22:50 PM
Below are 3 paragraphs from "The Cook Report" about the US House race coming up in November.  No need for the Republicans to worry ..... they're doing great.  ;)

The Three Fronts of the 2018 Election

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/three-fronts-2018-election

Quote
The House, with its overall results the most sensitive to national moods and trends, looks awfully tough for Republicans. There are an enormous number of Republican seats in jeopardy with very few opportunities for the GOP to offset their losses by grabbing Democratic seats. In The Cook Political Report’s latest House ratings, examining every district from the 1st District of Alabama through Wyoming’s at-large seat, 10 Republican seats are rated either Leaning or Likely Democratic—in other words, probably turnover districts; an ample down payment, given that Democrats need a net gain of 23 to take a majority. Conversely, there is only a single Democratic seat that is in either the Lean or Likely Republican column. In the Toss-Up column, there are 24 Republican-held seats and only two Democratic seats. While Democrats have two of their own seats (both open) in the Lean Democratic column, Republicans have 25 of their own seats that are just Lean Republican.

To bottom-line all of this: Republicans seriously trail in 10 of their own seats, have 24 teetering on the edge and 25 additional seats in danger, a total of 59 seats in peril. That’s not counting another 27 GOP seats in the Likely Republican column, meaning they are not yet competitive but are being watched very closely. Democrats have one seat trailing, two teetering on the edge and two more in some degree of danger in competitive races, plus nine more seats in the Likely Democratic column.

The macro-political, top-down view similarly shows extreme difficulty for Republicans, including on the generic-congressional-ballot test. Republicans trail by an average of 7.2 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average, and 8.2 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average, with individual national polls indicating that the GOP is running anywhere from 4 to 13 points behind. On Thursday morning, a Marist University poll taken July 19-22 for NPR and PBS NewsHour of 923 registered voters nationwide was released, putting Democrats ahead by 7 points. Like other polls, it showed a Democratic intensity advantage, with 78 percent of Democrats saying the election was very important compared to just 68 percent of Republicans (keep in mind that, depending upon the poll, voters identifying as Democrats hold a 6- to 8-point advantage over those identifying as Republicans, compounding that deficit). Another telling finding is that while 83 percent of registered voters who are Democrats disapprove of the job that Republicans in Congress are doing, only 53 percent of Republicans approve of their party’s job in Congress, and 69 percent of independents disapprove.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on August 01, 2018, 11:39:18 PM
Tough times in Ohio these days ..... especially for people related to the athletics departments at "Thee Ohio State".

Looks like Urban Meyer .... head of the OSU football team, has his job on the line.  He knew about some wrongful behavior years ago .... and didn't say anything.

https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/08/01/urban-meyer-zach-smith-firing-ohio-state

And if that sounds like ANOTHER OSU ATHLETIC STORY ..... this one about an assistant wrestling coach THAT KNEW SOME BAD SHIT WAS GOING ON BUT DIDN'T SAY ANYTHING ...... I'll give you a small hint:

JIM JORDAN
US House of Representatives and resident liar in the US House from Ohio's 4th district ..... and wanna be Speaker Of The US House of Representatives.

Yes ..... ole Jimmy has a lot of things to answer for ...... and about 7 OSU wrestlers that say he knew what was going on AND DIDN'T SAY SQUAT.

That doesn't sound like US Speaker Of The House ethics to me.  In fact, that doesn't sound like US House of Representatives ethics to me either.

VOTE FOR Janet Garrett
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 02, 2018, 12:00:16 AM
While polls can be wrong it still seems increasing likely that O'Rourke might defeat Cruz:

Title: "Poll: Senate race between Cruz, O'Rourke a dead heat"

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/399858-poll-senate-race-between-cruz-orourke-a-dead-heat
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on August 02, 2018, 01:31:59 PM
As the saying goes in the US...... if you're digging yourself into a hole, STOP DIGGING!  What does US House of Representatives Jim Jordan (4th district of Ohio) do?

HE GETS A BIGGER SHOVEL.

He apparently .... per the report below, has talked one of his old prior coaches that coached with him, to try and talk the wrestlers into taking back their story.

Now Jimmie is going to be in REALLY HOT WATER.  This could be one to watch.  Jordan is in a district that is HIGHLY REPUBLICAN .... and he should, in normal times, win EASILY.   Now .... who knows what is going to happen. 

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/former-ohio-state-wrestling-coach-urged-rep-jim-jordans-accusers-to-recant-texts-show/ar-BBLnzEv?li=BBnbcA1&ocid=iehp

Quote
Retired Ohio State wrestling coach Russ Hellickson reached out to two ex-team members and asked them to support their former assistant coach, Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, a day after they accused the powerful congressman of turning a blind eye to alleged sexual abuse by the team doctor, according to the wrestlers and text messages they shared with NBC News.

The former wrestlers said their ex-coach made it clear to them he was under pressure from Jordan to get statements of support from members of the team.

Hellickson’s appeal to help Jordan came after the congressman repeatedly said that he had no idea that team doctor Richard Strauss was allegedly molesting the athletes — contradicting three wrestlers who told NBC News that Jordan must have known since the abuse was frequently discussed in the locker room.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 03, 2018, 05:18:11 PM
More signs of cracks in the GOP armor:

Title: "Democrats hopeful after poll shows plummeting trust in Trump"

https://www.axios.com/2018-midterm-elections-democrats-poll-trust-trump-852398cc-7173-4ef6-8f4e-2861128bc85b.html

Extract: ""Russia, Immigration and Trade War Sticking to Trump" is the headline of a new polling memo for Priorities USA by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group and Global Strategy Group.

Why it matters: "This translates into the worst ratings for Trump on his truthfulness, temperament, dealings with Russia, and immigration policies we have not seen in any of our eleven previous national tracking surveys on the Trump presidency."

•"Trump’s dealings with Vladimir Putin, his handling of immigration and the separation of children from their families, and the impact of his trade war have stuck with voters in a way nothing else has since the beginning of his presidency."

•"In response to an open-ended question, voters volunteer in large numbers concerns about these issues.""
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: jacksmith4tx on August 03, 2018, 06:57:10 PM
"In response to an open-ended question, voters volunteer in large numbers concerns about these issues.""

Which proves advertising works yet again to mold "public opinion". The same reason Trump got elected in the first place.

If you are correct then will this succeed or fail?
https://www.fastcompany.com/90210705/ad-industry-supergroup-forms-to-battle-climate-change
"Ad industry supergroup forms to battle climate change"
Quote
Climate change-awareness campaigns are a dime a dozen, but Marshall says the core premise of Potential Energy is that the old narratives of anti-capitalism haven’t worked: We need answers which aren’t based on guilt and cutting back individually, but rather in stoking the business and innovation potential in finding a solution.

“Anyone lucky enough to see Dan (Schrag) present on the issue quickly learns that the way to solve climate change isn’t through sacrifice as much as it is through innovation,” says Marshall. “The entire global energy system of the world needs to change, and quickly. And that is as much an opportunity for our clients as it is a threat. It’s the biggest capitalist opportunity the world has ever seen.”

Update: This is the coalition of ad companies behind this.
https://www.potentialenergycoalition.org/
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Neven on August 06, 2018, 01:13:43 PM
Kyle Kulinski doing some good work on Faux:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kKNBKwJc8I
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: SteveMDFP on August 07, 2018, 02:24:05 PM
A gotcha moment with a new candidate doesn't say that much because it's easy to do. I wondered what is the 'democrat party' policy on this. I checked the Democrat website, all I could find was their 2016 policy platform  https://www.democrats.org/party-platform#fair-share

It's a bit out of date? :)

Is there a 2018 policy platform the candidates could use for talking points?

No.  The Democratic Party, at least officially, operates on Democratic principles.  You thus have to have a convention to adopt a new platform.  This happens every four years.

However, the congressional democratic leadership does have a role in crafting their own kind of "platform" in the interim.  The would be "A Better Deal."
https://abetterdeal.democraticleader.gov/

Other groupings of leadership surely have other policy positions.  There may be relevant documents from, say, Democratic governors of states. 
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Neven on August 07, 2018, 04:21:47 PM
Kyle Kulinski on his own performance on Faux the other day, explaining how you beat Republican talking points/tricks:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_pbsVr_EKMc&

I think he did really well there, especially the first three quarters of the back-and-forth.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on August 07, 2018, 08:14:49 PM
He thinks well on his feet and I thought that his ending, where he declares that he is right - look it up, was very strong.
Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Neven on August 08, 2018, 12:33:49 PM
Jimmy Dore also explains how Kyle Kulinski did such a stellar job in showing how to defeat the GOP and Trump:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICwjp3LzTcs

Are any self-labeled Democrats watching? Or won't the donors allow it?
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 10, 2018, 12:05:20 AM
Trump is making the GOP's 'suburban problem' worse:

Title: "Trump blows up GOP's formula for winning House races"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/09/ohio-special-election-trump-gop-house-midterms-770889

Extract: "A POLITICO analysis of the vote breakdown in Ohio's special election shows that the party's suburban problem might be even deeper than feared."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 10, 2018, 12:09:20 AM
Trump may transform the coming midterm blue wave into a tsunami:

Title: "Will Trump’s Monster Ego Guarantee a Blue Wave?"

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/08/midterm-elections-blue-wave-democratic-primaries

Extract: "Tuesday night’s elections suggest the political calculus behind a blue wave may be impossible to counter—and the president isn’t helping."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on August 10, 2018, 01:59:08 PM
Let’s take a look and see where the blue ripple/wave/tsunami is right now as seen from the lens of real politics.com for the upcoming election in November:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2018/

1). Senate:  45 Dems, 48 Republicans, and 7 tossups.  As I said before, the Dens would have to draw an “inside straight” in order to take the Senate.  Highly unlikely ..... but possible.  They could also lose seats to the Republicans.  Anything is possible, however, with Traitor Don at the steering wheel.

2). House:
  199 Dems, 196 Republicans, and 40 tossups (all but two of the tossups are currently Republican seats).  This is the first time that the Dems have moved to the lead on Realclearpolitics.  The CURRENT ACTUAL count in the House is:  193 Dems, 235 Republicans, and 7 vacant.  So unless something DRASTIC happens ...... there is indeed a blue wave in the House.  218 seats are needed for a majority ..... so as of TODAY ..... the Dems have the advantage.

3). Governorships:  20 Dems, 21 Republicans, 9 tossups.  The Dems have continued to chip away at the Republican advantage ever since the Orange Turd took over in the Oval Office. 

Still 3 months left ..... so anything can happen, but as of now ..... there is definitely a blue wave coming.  The question will be what magnitude?
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Neven on August 10, 2018, 02:00:32 PM
The question will be what magnitude?

And what kind of blue.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Susan Anderson on August 10, 2018, 05:48:21 PM
For those who think Democrats don't have their eye on the ball, it is encouraging (and true) [garn, can't find the link, and it was a very good summary!] that Democrats are focusing on the issues and letting Trump and the Russian stuff speak for itself.

I repeat: Democrats are focusing on the issues for the constituents. They know they don't need to attack Trump, who is a living breathing poison pill for his party.

and this: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/09/opinion/columnists/left-sanders-ocasio-cortez-primaries.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/09/opinion/columnists/left-sanders-ocasio-cortez-primaries.html)
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Neven on August 11, 2018, 12:47:05 AM
and this: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/09/opinion/columnists/left-sanders-ocasio-cortez-primaries.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/09/opinion/columnists/left-sanders-ocasio-cortez-primaries.html)

Thanks, Susan. It's heartening to see this kind of spot-on analysis in mainstream media.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 11, 2018, 08:04:29 PM
For those who think Democrats don't have their eye on the ball, it is encouraging (and true) [garn, can't find the link, and it was a very good summary!] that Democrats are focusing on the issues and letting Trump and the Russian stuff speak for itself.

I repeat: Democrats are focusing on the issues for the constituents. They know they don't need to attack Trump, who is a living breathing poison pill for his party.

and this: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/09/opinion/columnists/left-sanders-ocasio-cortez-primaries.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/09/opinion/columnists/left-sanders-ocasio-cortez-primaries.html)
+1
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 14, 2018, 10:04:29 PM
It looks like the Mueller Investigation is damaging Trump's credibility with voters:

Title: "CNN's new poll has very little good news for Donald Trump on Russia"

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/14/politics/donald-trump-robert-mueller-poll/index.html

Extract:
"•    55% disapprove of how Trump is handling the "investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election." Just 34% approve.
•   47% approve of how Mueller is handling the probe as opposed to 39% who disapprove, an improvement from the 41% approve/29% disapprove in CNN's last poll in June.
•   Almost six in 10 think Russia's attempted interference in the 2016 campaign is a "serious matter that should be fully investigated."
•   56% think Trump has attempted to interfere in the investigation.
•   Just more than one in three (37%) of respondents say Trump's public statements about the Russia probe have been completely or mostly true. By contrast, 56% believe what Trump has said about the investigation is either mostly or completely false.
•   Almost 80% of Democrats say that the investigation into Russian interference will be either extremely or very important to their votes for Congress this fall."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on August 15, 2018, 05:15:08 AM
Looks like Donnie is still going after Harley Davidson.  That should play well in Pennsylvania where they have a large factory, and in Wisconsin which is where corporate HQ is located (I believe).

Good thing there aren’t elections coming up in 3 months ...😱
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on August 15, 2018, 08:31:28 AM
Looks like Donnie is still going after Harley Davidson.  That should play well in Pennsylvania where they have a large factory, and in Wisconsin which is where corporate HQ is located (I believe).

Good thing there aren’t elections coming up in 3 months ...😱
For once I agree with you. Only think that really matters (bar something catastrophic) is the economic stuff.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on August 15, 2018, 04:30:26 PM
So how much "squeezing" will the Republicans running for Congress take before they back off from Traitor Trump?

They don't seem to backing off much yet .....

RealClearPolitics has the Dems forecast at 199, Republicans at 194, and 42 tossups (40 of those in what are now Republican held districts).

The actual CURRENT COUNT NOW IN OFFICE is 193 Dems, 235 Republicans, and 7 current vacancies.  The counted needed by either party for a majority is 218.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

A couple months ago .... the Republicans were at about 205.  So they have "slipped" about 10 seats in those two months.  Pennsylvania, Ohio, New York, and California are the concentrated battle grounds where the Dem's could potentially pick up the most ..... especially in the now "tossup states" and "lean Republican states".

If I were Donnie ...... I would continue trashing Harley in order to tick off people in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania where Harley has operations.  I'm sure that will make them happy voters.... ;)

How much "bleeding" will the Republicans in Congress put up with before they give Traitor Donnie the "heave ho"?  If the polls slip another 10 seats in the coming 2 months will they "jettison" him then?  It will be interesting to see....



Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on August 15, 2018, 04:40:40 PM

How much "bleeding" will the Republicans in Congress put up with before they give Traitor Donnie the "heave ho"?  If the polls slip another 10 seats in the coming 2 months will they "jettison" him then?  It will be interesting to see....

At this time they all want his blessing and support- even Cruz  ;D
Unless a " blue tidal wave" happens I don't think Trump has to worry.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 15, 2018, 08:31:18 PM
The blue wave is picking-up momemtum:

Title: "Polls: Democrats eroding GOP's turnout edge in midterms"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/15/politico-poll-midterms-voter-turnout-778398

Extract: "A trio of new polls show that Democrats are cutting into the GOP's longstanding turnout advantage in midterm elections, another encouraging sign for the minority party's hopes of winning the House in November."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on August 16, 2018, 03:27:32 PM


House: Three More GOP Seats Join the Toss Up Column

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-three-more-gop-seats-join-toss-column

David Wasserman, Cook Political Report
August 15, 2018

Quote
For Republicans, the 2018 House playing field is a lot like a game of Whack-a-Mole: everywhere they turn, new problems keep popping up in surprising places. In January, we rated 20 GOP-held seats as Toss Ups or worse, including three leaning towards Democrats. With today's changes, we now rate 37 GOP-held seats as Toss Ups or worse, including ten leaning towards Democrats.

Probably just a "blip".  I'm sure it's nothing for the Republicans to worry about, and it could just as easily reverse itself in coming weeks.....
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on August 16, 2018, 03:39:16 PM
..snip

Probably just a "blip".  I'm sure it's nothing for the Republicans to worry about, and it could just as easily reverse itself in coming weeks.....

It could and this is before Trump goes on a serious rally tour closer to the election.

Shame there isn't a poll on this thread- Will the house go Blue in 2018?   
I'm on record here. No.

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 16, 2018, 04:59:25 PM
Recent assessments indicate that the Democrats are gaining ground in the 2018 House Elections:

Title: "Tracking the House Races to Watch in the 2018 Midterm Elections"

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/us/elections/house-race-ratings.html

Extract: "Democrats must flip at least 23 Republican-held seats to retake the House this November. There are currently 62 highly competitive seats — those considered a tossup between the two parties or leaning slightly toward one —

The ratings for dozens of competitive congressional races have shifted in the direction of Democrats in recent months."

See also, the linked website host's FiveThirtyEight's articles about the 2018 House Elections.

Title: “2018 House Elections”

https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/2018-house-elections/
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 16, 2018, 07:56:40 PM
FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrats just over a 75% chance of winning control of the House in 2018:

Title: "Forecasting the race for the House"

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

See also:

Title: "FiveThirtyEight says Dems have 75 percent chance of winning House"

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/402159-fivethirtyeight-says-dems-have-75-percent-chance-of-winning
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on August 17, 2018, 10:45:30 AM
FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrats just over a 75% chance of winning control of the House in

So about the same as they gave Hillary.  ::)
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 17, 2018, 06:23:53 PM
In my opinion, the real reason that Trump cancelled his November 2018 military parade is because he doesn't want to celebrate the Democrat's regaining control of the House in the midterm election:

Title: "Trump cancels military parade over high cost estimates"

https://www.axios.com/trump-cancels-military-parade-over-high-cost-estimates-351367d8-c2ca-46f8-92d5-03c18c03669a.html

&

Title: "D.C. mayor mocks Trump after he cancels military parade"

https://www.axios.com/tag/military-parades/
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 17, 2018, 06:27:07 PM
FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrats just over a 75% chance of winning control of the House in

So about the same as they gave Hillary.  ::)
For those who might take your post the wrong way, FiveThirtyEight only needed to be wrong about one seat to be wrong in HRC's case, but they would need to be wrong about multiple seats in order to be wrong in their forecast regarding control of the House.  Thus their current forecast is much more robust.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 17, 2018, 06:57:26 PM
It is always nice to look on the bright side of life:

Title: "Worst-case scenario for House GOP is 70-seat wipeout"

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/402329-worst-case-scenario-for-house-gop-is-70-seat-wipeout

Extract: "… the worst-case scenario for the GOP is a truly historic wipeout of as many as 72 House seats, according to The Hill’s analysis of special election results and congressional and presidential returns from 2016."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 17, 2018, 11:10:38 PM
The article speaks for itself:

Title: "Here Are 5 Reasons Why Republicans Should Be Worried About the 2018 Midterms"

https://www.alternet.org/news-amp-politics/here-are-5-reasons-why-republicans-should-be-worried-about-2018-midterms

Extract: " …five reasons why Republicans should be worried going into the November midterms: (1) the history of midterms, (2) the 2018 midterms will be a referendum on Donald Trump's presidency, (3) enthusiasm among Democrats, (4) the influence of female voters, and (5) a "shifting midterm coalition.""
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: SteveMDFP on August 18, 2018, 12:30:40 AM
FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrats just over a 75% chance of winning control of the House in

So about the same as they gave Hillary.  ::)

As I recall, 538.com projected Cheeto Mussolini to have a 20% chance or so of winning.  This proved far more prescient than other major pollsters or pundits.  Nate Silver is no slouch.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 18, 2018, 05:49:00 PM
The Democrats know that there is no value in talking about impeachment (as Mueller will take care of that); so instead they are talking about real things that matter to voters, like health care:

Title: "The 2018 midterms, explained by this Heidi Heitkamp ad"

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/8/17/17720552/2018-midterms-heidi-heitkamp-ad-health-care

Extract: "Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) faces one of 2018’s most difficult reelection campaigns. Donald Trump won her state of North Dakota by nearly 30 points in 2016. He still enjoys a positive approval rating there. The early polls show Heitkamp and her Republican opponent, Rep. Kevin Cramer, neck and neck in the November general election.

So as we round the corner and head into the fall, what is Heitkamp focusing on? Obamacare — and preexisting conditions, specifically."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 18, 2018, 07:12:24 PM
The linked article/image indicates that given Trump's current Gallup approval rating of 39% the GOP should lose more than 60 House seats in the 2018 midterm elections:

Title: "The midterm elections could paralyze a key instrument of Trump's agenda for the US economy"

https://www.businessinsider.com/midterm-elections-may-cost-trump-key-policy-tool-rattner-charts-2018-8

Extract: "The red boxes on the chart below represent a midterm election, plotted by the president's approval rating and the number of House seats gained or lost. Based on Gallup's approval rating, at 39%, Rattner sees the GOP losing as many as 60 seats."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on August 19, 2018, 08:47:55 AM
The linked article/image indicates that given Trump's current Gallup approval rating of 39% the GOP should lose more than 60 House seats in the 2018 midterm elections:

Title: "The midterm elections could paralyze a key instrument of Trump's agenda for the US economy"

https://www.businessinsider.com/midterm-elections-may-cost-trump-key-policy-tool-rattner-charts-2018-8

Extract: "The red boxes on the chart below represent a midterm election, plotted by the president's approval rating and the number of House seats gained or lost. Based on Gallup's approval rating, at 39%, Rattner sees the GOP losing as many as 60 seats."

1) Taking the outlier poll is disingenuous. Most of the polls ( and averages) are 42%-43%
2) There is correlation but also some way off.
3) NOTHING about the Trump presidency is standard- hard to take anything from previous times.

edit:  4) At another glance it seems that over 50% positive puts you in the safe zone and anything under is basically a toss up- anything can happen.

Funny thing is it seems being BETWEEN 45-50% is the worse case. All those under 45% (like Trump)  did ok  :)
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on August 19, 2018, 09:21:05 AM
Just an hypothesis why the above happens.

Over 50% is easy.

45%-50%...hmm.... it's like a message :" Your OK but we expected better- take a small warning"

Under 45%.... maybe : "everything is shitty and nothing will ever change" ?
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 19, 2018, 06:43:10 PM
Can't you find something really intelligent & unbiased that's backed up with credible research, data and analysis worth reading? I suspect you can't but that isn't your fault if it doesn't exist. :)

On average 85% of incumbents get reelected, thus the GOP midterm exodus illustrated in the attached image indicates that the GOP will likely be in trouble come November 2018:
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on August 19, 2018, 08:44:28 PM
It's certainly a wounderous graph, but seems disconnected from the subject at hand.
The GOP is retiring 21 more house members that the Dems. The largest number of retirements since 1992 when the Dems retired an equal number.
If both parties lose all of the seats in which their incumbent has retired in the coming election, the GOP will still remain in power.


The "out" party is expected to pick up seats during the mid-terms. If they don't it will be a huge disappointment. Not as disappointing as Hillary's loss or Bernie's ouster, but still a very serious loss.


538 has good numbers for Dems today, a 7.8% preference over the GOP. Pollsters cede 6.5% towards the GOP to account for the Gerrymandering in Republican controlled States, leaving a much smaller margin of victory. Trump's approvals lag by 8.4% among likely voters, a huge improvement from the 16.3% negatives he started the year with.


An interesting study might determine which of the up for grab seats are in states where state government was in Republican hands in 2010, the date of the most recent census. In those states I'd expect Gerrymandering to be in full force. This could make a large difference in the expected outcome.


I think the whole thing will be decided by who stays home on election day. sidd has mentioned that his Deplorable neighbors may sit this one out. If this is true, and if it repeats itself across the country it could be a very good night for the Democratic faithful.


If the house does swing Blue, they've a lot of work to do in the 2 years leading up to the next presidential race. They'll need to show Buba that electing Democrats has made life better.
Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: sidd on August 19, 2018, 08:51:38 PM
"sidd has mentioned that his Deplorable neighbors may sit this one out."

More precisely, i satd i did not know if they would show up this year. But my very next sentence was that I hadn't expected them to show in 2016...

so i make no predictions.

sidd
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on August 19, 2018, 09:05:17 PM
Sorry
My bad, I'd misremembered your post.
No intention to misrepresent your message.
Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 20, 2018, 02:42:31 AM
Thanks. 42 house republicans retiring not contesting in 2018.

So ok that means they won't be "incumbents" even though those seats are still currently held by the Rep. party. Sure longterm incumbents have personal advantages, and is why 85% on average are returned. But now another 10% have retired as well.

But would one need to look closely at each specific district to determine what the margin was last election? I doubt that all 42 or even most of those seats will be lost without specifics - not that I am that interested in looking myself. I am happy to wait and let it all unfold whatever the result. I have no skin in the game either way. I'd prefer non-aligned Independents to win every seat and throw all of the rest out to reconsider their futures. Not going to happen.

The linked article provides more analysis of the trends behind the graph, all of which spell trouble for the GOP come November 2018:

Title: "A blue wave is obscuring a red exodus"

https://www.axios.com/2018-midterm-elections-house-republicans-retiring-dave-wasserman-1c985d97-2f73-4ef0-9d5e-7e7dd23c92cf.html

Extract: "The bottom line: "Yes, it's about how upset suburban professional women are, with regard to family separations at the border and Trump's temperament and behavior. But it's also about who's not voting. And that's primarily men without college degrees who are Trump true believers."

- "They believed in Trump fervently, but they've never liked congressional Republicans at all. In fact, Trump gained ground by running against them in 2016. So why are they going to turn out this year for congressional Republicans?""
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 20, 2018, 03:25:03 AM
Yet another indication that Democrats will likely control the House after the midterms:

Title: "Poll: Democrats in stronger position to take the House"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/poll-democrats-in-stronger-position-to-take-the-house/ar-BBM7EXa?ocid=spartandhp

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 21, 2018, 06:50:44 PM
The Democrats seem to have a fresh crop of energized candidates that are giving once secure GOP candidates a run for their money:

Title: "Once-safe GOP seats threatened by blue wave"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/21/republicans-congress-blue-wave-safe-seats-790101

Extract: "Republicans who for years have represented some of the safest congressional seats in their party are suddenly under intense pressure in 2018, with Democratic challengers threatening to overwhelm them in suburban districts where President Donald Trump has struggled.

One of those districts belongs to Rep. Steve Chabot, an 11-term Republican who has gone years without a serious challenge in the southwestern corner of Ohio. He has been outraised — and, some Republicans say, outworked — by Democrat Aftab Pureval, the 35-year-old clerk of courts in Cincinnati-centered Hamilton County, who argues that the congressman has lost touch with a diversifying, suburbanizing district changing beneath his feet."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 21, 2018, 07:00:22 PM
There are ways to fight voter suppression, and the Democrats are activating them for the coming midterm elections:

Title: "Democrats gear up for legal fights over voter suppression"

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/402761-democrats-gear-up-for-legal-fights-over-voter-suppression

Extract: "Democrats are getting ready for a major fight this fall over access to the polls, which the party believes could be a critical issue toward determining congressional majorities in the midterm elections."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on August 22, 2018, 08:14:05 AM
There are ways to fight voter suppression, and the Democrats are activating them for the coming midterm elections:

Title: "Democrats gear up for legal fights over voter suppression"

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/402761-democrats-gear-up-for-legal-fights-over-voter-suppression

Extract: "Democrats are getting ready for a major fight this fall over access to the polls, which the party believes could be a critical issue toward determining congressional majorities in the midterm elections."

So I guess fighting against voter ID- like every 3rd world country even has.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on August 22, 2018, 09:08:59 AM
According to a Gallop Poll from Monday:


45% of Democrats, 55% of Independents, and 74% of Republicans want to "continue to improve relationships with Russia" while 51% of Democrats think we should take "strong steps against Russia", those outside the party disagree.


https://news.gallup.com/poll/241124/favor-diplomacy-sanctions-russia.aspx (https://news.gallup.com/poll/241124/favor-diplomacy-sanctions-russia.aspx)


Russia-Gate seems to be playing to mixed reviews within the Democratic echo chamber, but after 579 days of repetition in the hinterlands it's not winning any awards.


I wonder how many minorities, who have seen American Justice up close and personal, will share my feelings of disgust and revulsion over Mueller's tactics.
They may never cast a vote for a Republican, but they may quietly mutter "A pox on both houses"  with a Spanish accent, or in Ebonics, and decide to go fishing on November 6.


Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on August 22, 2018, 09:12:19 AM
Maybe in Australia voter fraud has less effect

1) Compulsory voting ( its in the 90's % turnout )
2) You have to be on the list to vote.
3) Much less illegal immigrants.

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on August 22, 2018, 09:24:43 AM
"A pox on both houses"

I said exactly that here yesterday and I'm no minority or an ex-felon - or was it today. :)
There are no ex-felons. It's like being an ex-amputee. As a non-practicing felon I'm very aware of these distinctions. 8)


Pox can spread like a 2018 California Wildfire. Hope we don't get burned by the politicians - again.
Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on August 22, 2018, 10:19:42 AM

3) What's the level of illegal immigration got do with voter fraud?


The right keeps saying that there is very big illegal voting by the "undocumented" and that is why they are pushing for voter ID. (of course because they believe most would vote dem)
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on August 22, 2018, 02:40:18 PM
If the Republican’s up for re-election keep getting arrested .... the Democrat’s won’t need Traitor Don’s help in taking back the House.  The two most recent Congressmen to bite the legal dust, were the first two Congressmen to support Trump.  This shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone as indictments continue to flow over the coming months.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: SteveMDFP on August 22, 2018, 03:23:48 PM
There are ways to fight voter suppression, and the Democrats are activating them for the coming
Extract: "Democrats are getting ready for a major fight this fall over access to the polls, which the party believes could be a critical issue toward determining congressional majorities in the midterm elections."

So I guess fighting against voter ID- like every 3rd world country even has.

Voter ID laws are just voter suppression.  They'd only ever prevent in-person voting fraud, which is a vanishingly rare phenomenon.

Non-citizens don't vote -- doing so would be an express ticket to deportation.   Who would risk that?

Meanwhile, millions of Americans are walking around with missing or expired drivers licenses.  They tend to be poor, urban, non-drivers, the elderly, the disabled.

Good democracy depends on encouraging voting, not making it inaccessible.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on August 24, 2018, 02:33:01 PM
Sabatos Crystal Ball ..... one of two or three well respected political forecasting sites ... made 12 changes to their forecast this week:  2 in favor of Republicans and 10 in favor of Democrats.

I’m sure it is just a one time blip .... just like the other blips that have happened over the past 18 months .... and will reverse itself as we get more and more incriminating information on Trump and the middle class figures out that they got almost nothing in tax cuts ... while the wealthiest 1% got 85% of the benefit.  I’m sure that will help Republican Congressmen a lot.😂

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 24, 2018, 11:57:40 PM
If Trump refuses to sign the $857 billion spending bill that the Senate passed on Thursday, and forces a government shutdown after September 30, 2018; then it is possible that angry voters could have control of both the House and the Senate to the Democrats:

Title: "The Senate is desperate to avoid another government shutdown — but Trump isn’t"

https://www.vox.com/2018/8/24/17778020/senate-border-wall-spending-bill-mitch-mcconnell-donald-trump

Extract: "For the past five months, the House and Senate have been sprinting to pass all 12 of their annual spending bills before the September deadline.

Republicans know government shutdowns are very unpopular. And Trump’s immigration agenda doesn’t fare well among voters overall. More than half of Americans — 58 percent — disapprove of how Trump has handled immigration matters, according to an early July Quinnipiac poll. A Reuters poll similarly found that 52 percent of Americans disapproved of Trump’s immigration agenda. Republicans are much more likely to approve of Trump’s immigration agenda, but a government shutdown over immigration policy could be disastrous for vulnerable Republican candidates.

But even in a year when Democrats are trying to harness their base’s enthusiasm to knock Republicans out of power in Congress, Trump hasn’t heeded his party’s political concerns. The coming weeks will be a test of whether he really has an appetite for a second shutdown — even if it has the potential to hurt his party’s electoral chances."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on August 25, 2018, 01:48:11 AM
It's been 24 years since the Democrats under Clinton faced their President's first mid term election. Bill and Donald had similar levels of disapproval by 8/24 and the Democrats suffered a terrible loss in November.


The Dems gained 54 seats in the house and picked up 8 Senate seats. If this election follows this path, by 2019 the Dems would have:


193+54 or 247 in the House of Representatives
&
47+8 or 55 in the Senate - as well as 2 independents that vote with them.


The 247 seats would give the Democrats 10 more seat than the Republicans have.  Interestingly under this scenario the Dems would control 57% of the votes in both houses. A solid majority, but no where near the super-majority needed to override a veto, or to win an impeachment conviction. 8 more votes equals a super majority, 8 fewer, the loss of their majority.


While winning 54 congressional seat might be possible, the path to winning 8 additional Senate seats when only 9 of the seats being decided presently are in Republican hands is almost an impossibility.
Even if lightning struck and the Democrats won ever single senate race, they still wouldn't have the votes to win an impeachment victory. 58% may sound more impressive than 57%, but it falls well short of the needed 2/3ds.


The only way Trump leaves office before 2021 is in a box.
Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on August 25, 2018, 02:07:53 AM
...Voter ID laws are just voter suppression.
  B-b-bbutt, how r rich male white re-pubic-lick-uns goin' ta keep thar pow'r, if'n fair votin' is enacted. Hey, re-pubic-lick-un gerrymanderers got all dar efferts invested in all those weird twisted districts, too.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: wili on August 25, 2018, 02:09:17 AM
Don't worry, Terry. The Repugs are getting indited at such a rapid rate, that there may be very few of them left not in jail by the time of the election!  ;D ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on August 26, 2018, 08:38:29 AM

Voter ID laws are just voter suppression.  They'd only ever prevent in-person voting fraud, which is a vanishingly rare phenomenon.

Non-citizens don't vote -- doing so would be an express ticket to deportation.   Who would risk that?

Meanwhile, millions of Americans are walking around with missing or expired drivers licenses.  They tend to be poor, urban, non-drivers, the elderly, the disabled.

Good democracy depends on encouraging voting, not making it inaccessible.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrBxZGWCdgs
Or you think AA can't get ID like these nimwits.

Since an ID is needed for basically everything else why not for voting.
Do these "poor,disabled,urban.non voters" not buy alcohol?
Go to a bank ? Jury duty? Get admitted to a hospital ? Collect any kind of payment?

I'm sure there are many more instances when an ID is needed.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: SteveMDFP on August 26, 2018, 11:27:01 PM

Voter ID laws are just voter suppression.  They'd only ever prevent in-person voting fraud, which is a vanishingly rare phenomenon.

Non-citizens don't vote -- doing so would be an express ticket to deportation.   Who would risk that?

Meanwhile, millions of Americans are walking around with missing or expired drivers licenses.  They tend to be poor, urban, non-drivers, the elderly, the disabled.

Good democracy depends on encouraging voting, not making it inaccessible.

Or you think AA can't get ID like these nimwits.

Since an ID is needed for basically everything else why not for voting.5
Do these "poor,disabled,urban.non voters" not buy alcohol?
Go to a bank ? Jury duty? Get admitted to a hospital ? Collect any kind of payment?

I'm sure there are many more instances when an ID is needed.

No, non-drivers get along fine with expired or alternate IDs.  But these folks get barred from voting.  You might check some actual evidence on this point, roughly 10% of the population lack adequate ID for voting in states with such laws.

Does PA's new voter ID law impact groups differently by ethnicity?
https://www.azavea.com/blog/2012/08/02/does-pas-new-voter-id-law-impact-groups-differently-by-ethnicity/ (https://www.azavea.com/blog/2012/08/02/does-pas-new-voter-id-law-impact-groups-differently-by-ethnicity/)

In contrast non-citizen voting is vanishingly rare.  Voter ID laws are pure voter suppression, nothing else.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on August 27, 2018, 08:15:26 AM
No, non-drivers get along fine with expired or alternate IDs.  But these folks get barred from voting.  You might check some actual evidence on this point, roughly 10% of the population lack adequate ID for voting in states with such laws.

Does PA's new voter ID law impact groups differently by ethnicity?
https://www.azavea.com/blog/2012/08/02/does-pas-new-voter-id-law-impact-groups-differently-by-ethnicity/ (https://www.azavea.com/blog/2012/08/02/does-pas-new-voter-id-law-impact-groups-differently-by-ethnicity/)

In contrast non-citizen voting is vanishingly rare.  Voter ID laws are pure voter suppression, nothing else.

Just because some people don't have an ID doesn't mean they can't get one. It is a stupid reason.

Also:
https://archive.is/A2ZYu    Nineteen Foreign Nationals Charged for Voting in 2016 Election

Yes, it happens and probably more than you think.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on August 27, 2018, 04:25:40 PM
California, Minnesota, New York and Texas are the states to watch right now to see if the Dem’s can take back the House.

If they do ..... then Donnie’s approval rating will plummet next year (assuming he makes it to next year).

It will be nearly impossible for FOX to avoid airing public hearings.  Right now, the only reason Trump’s approval ratings aren’t a lot worse, is that FOX doesn’t show any of the bad stuff (expect for Shep Smith).

Once some of those Trump supporters see the truth (like the juror in the Manafort trial), a significant piece of his support will erode (I’m talking about the Trump supporters who now think the Mueller investigation is a witch hunt).   Once they see the truth on tv .... in live hearings ... that will change things.

And that assumes more SIGNIFICANT news doesn’t come out over the coming weeks.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on August 27, 2018, 09:34:56 PM
Speaking of Texas ..... a new poll out today from Emerson gives Ted Cruz a 1% advantage ... 38 to 37%, with 21% undecided.  That’s a LOT of undecided votes.  But keep in mind that Texas has not elected a Democrat for the US Senate in over 3 decades .... so Beto still has LONG ODDS to overcome.

Anything is possible ... but there are 10 weeks or so till Election Day ... day , and Texas is historically red over the last 30 years.

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on August 28, 2018, 08:14:07 AM
California, Minnesota, New York and Texas are the states to watch right now to see if the Dem’s can take back the House.

If they do ..... then Donnie’s approval rating will plummet next year (assuming he makes it to next year).

..snip
Wait, this looks like a shift in perspective from you- before it was "any day now tick-tock- and now you say there is a chance he will be in office NEXT YEAR?  Good on you. :)
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on August 29, 2018, 12:49:36 AM
It's the Economy Stupid

But Reuters reports that that Consumer Confidence is at an 18 year high - on the back of good labor numbers.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-trade/u-s-goods-trade-deficit-rises-as-exports-fall-idUSKCN1LD1KT

Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on August 29, 2018, 03:19:54 PM
A couple interesting developments:

1). Courts are saying that North Carolina needs to redraw their district maps BEFORE the coming November election.  If upheld, this will help the Dem’s in the US House elections.

2). The Tallahassee mayor who won the Dem primary for Governor in Florida last night looks to be good competition to the Republicans Ron Desantis (a BIG Traitor Trump supporter).  This could be a good matchup for the Dems.  It will certainly be contentious.  Remember, if The Dems win this governor race and AG race in Florida .... Donnie can kiss his “non jailed life” goodbye.

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 30, 2018, 12:31:31 AM
Questions about Rick Scott's finances could weaken his campaign to be one of Florida's Senators:

Title: "Rick and Ann Scott’s financial trail leads to Cayman Islands tax haven"

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article217391445.html

Extract: "Scott’s finances will remain an issue in the general election phase of his battle with Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, which will begin Wednesday, the day after Tuesday’s primary."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 30, 2018, 10:41:19 PM
Hopefully, this announcement by Trump will mean more votes for the Democrats in the midterms:

Title: "Trump nixes raises slated for 1.8M federal workers"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/30/trump-cancels-pay-raises-federal-workers-804574

Extract: "‘In light of our nation’s fiscal situation, federal employee pay must be performance-based,’ the president wrote in a Thursday letter to congressional leaders."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 31, 2018, 04:43:44 PM
Hopefully, Trump's drop in the polls will translate into more votes for the Democrats in the midterms:

Title: "Poll: Trump disapproval rating up to 60 percent"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/31/trump-approval-rating-poll-washington-post-abc-805563

Extract: "Sixty percent of those polled in a new survey disapprove of President Donald Trump's job performance, a new high for the president in joint polling conducted by The Washington Post and ABC News.

The poll, released Friday and conducted just days after special counsel Robert Mueller delivered a one-two punch to the Trump administration in federal court, found a little more than one-third of Americans approve of Trump's job performance. The poll was conducted last week, when former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort was found guilty on tax and bank fraud charges and Trump's former lawyer Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to eight counts, including campaign finance violations, in a Manhattan courtroom."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 31, 2018, 05:24:26 PM
The official GOP House committee (as opposed to dark money organizations) has a limited supply of money and will need to decide which GOP House candidates to cut donations to:

Title: "‘Tough decisions have to be made’: House Republicans prepare for pain"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/31/republicans-midterms-congress-vulnerable-lawmakers-gop-805496

Extract: "Party officials begin deciding which GOP lawmakers to save and which ones to cut loose."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 01, 2018, 12:14:33 PM
By October, Trump will have to cancel on Ted Cruz .... because by October Ted won’t want him in Texas.  Donnie’s poll numbers will be further in the toilet.  Maybe Trump will have to cancel because of his bone spurs.

Trump is deeply into the “laughing stock” phase.  Now his every move is being made fun of.  When is Trump visiting Russia?  I hear that housing is very affordable.... and maybe he can get one of Vladi’s oligarchs to give him a house to live in. 
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 01, 2018, 03:16:05 PM
By October, Trump will have to cancel on Ted Cruz .... because by October Ted won’t want him in Texas.  Donnie’s poll numbers will be further in the toilet.  Maybe Trump will have to cancel because of his bone spurs.

Trump is deeply into the “laughing stock” phase.  Now his every move is being made fun of.  When is Trump visiting Russia?  I hear that housing is very affordable.... and maybe he can get one of Vladi’s oligarchs to give him a house to live in.

Whether or not Trump makes it to Texas to stump for Cruz; hopefully, he will help drag Cruz underwater by November:

Title: "Trump says he will go to deeply Republican Texas to campaign for Sen. Ted Cruz, as Democrat Beto O'Rourke surges in the polls"

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/31/trump-going-to-texas-to-campaign-for-ted-cruz-as-beto-orourke-surges.html

Extract: "The same August Marist poll that showed O'Rourke closing in on Cruz also revealed that the president's approval ratings among adults in the Lone Star State are underwater. Only 43 percent of the nearly 1,000 respondents in the weighted survey said they approved of the job Trump is doing as president. Forty-six percent, meanwhile, said they disapproved, and 11 percent said they were unsure.

For Cruz, the idea that his fellow Republican, the president, could actually harm his re-election prospects in Texas would be an especially bitter pill for the senator, who lost the 2016 Republican presidential primary to Trump."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 03, 2018, 07:33:06 PM
Here's some excerpts from an article in the "Cook Political Report."

https://www.cookpolitical.com/index.php/analysis/national/national-politics/dark-days-ahead-trump-and-gop

Dark Days Ahead for Trump and the GOP

Charles E. Cook, Jr.
August 28, 2018

Quote
This week’s developments—the guilty verdict of Paul Manafort, President Trump’s former campaign head found guilty on tax and bank-fraud charges, and the guilty plea by Michael Cohen, Trump’s longtime personal lawyer, for campaign-finance-law violations which he says were directed by Trump—have to leave Republicans unnerved. And then there was Wednesday’s release of a Fox News poll showing Republicans trailing on the generic congressional-ballot test by 11 points, making the situation for Republicans hoping to retain the House majority look even worse than before.

The Fox News poll of 1,009 registered voters conducted Aug. 19-21, mostly before the plea deal and guilty verdict were made public, showed Democrats with 49 percent of the vote, to 38 percent for Republicans. This was up from a Democratic lead of 8 points in the July Fox poll, and 9 points in June. When the new poll’s sample was narrowed to likely voters—those saying they were “extremely interested” in the election—the Democratic lead exploded to 18 points, 56 to 38 percent. The RealClearPolitics average shows Democrats up by 7.1 points. Even with the advantages for Republicans in district boundaries and natural-population patterns, this makes a House turnover quite likely.

Now ..... to be fair, FOX is just one of those "far left leaning polls"  ;) that probably go out and find people who will lie for them.  But it is just one more yard stick (or meter stick for the Europeans  ;)) that we can use to measure where we are right now.

I'm sure that when Paul Manafort gets off "Scot free" in his second trial ..... and Donnie Jr. is arrested ..... and Julian Assange is tried ...... and Donnie is found to have used his inaugural bank account like a personal bank account ....... that things will get much better for Traitor Donald.  ;)
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 04, 2018, 02:52:42 AM
Trump seems to think that following the rule of law will hurt the GOP in the midterms:

Title: "Trump slams "Sessions Justice Department" for indicting GOP congressmen"

https://www.axios.com/trump-sessions-justice-department-indicting-gop-congressmen-61a28c98-87b3-4b2c-8808-f6563a69d912.html

Extract: "President Trump hit Attorney General Jeff Sessions and the Justice Department Monday over the indictments of Republican congressmen Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) and Chris Collins (R-N.Y.), that Trump argues put "[t]wo easy wins now in doubt" ahead of the midterms."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on September 04, 2018, 04:24:02 AM
Trump seems to think that following the rule of law will hurt the GOP in the midterms:

Title: "Trump slams "Sessions Justice Department" for indicting GOP congressmen"

https://www.axios.com/trump-sessions-justice-department-indicting-gop-congressmen-61a28c98-87b3-4b2c-8808-f6563a69d912.html (https://www.axios.com/trump-sessions-justice-department-indicting-gop-congressmen-61a28c98-87b3-4b2c-8808-f6563a69d912.html)

Extract: "President Trump hit Attorney General Jeff Sessions and the Justice Department Monday over the indictments of Republican congressmen Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) and Chris Collins (R-N.Y.), that Trump argues put "[t]wo easy wins now in doubt" ahead of the midterms."
My kid brother went to school with his father, Duncan. Duncan was an obnoxious little shit, I'm sure his son carried on the family tradition.


Apples, trees and their proximity.
Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 04, 2018, 05:23:22 AM
Trump is TRYING to use the Department of Justice and the FBI for his own political agenda.  Trump continues to act like an autocrat from a South American country.  Trump continues to spin out of control as the walls close in and his voter base shows signs of sealing over the past 8 weeks or so.

Real Clear Politics now shows the Democrat’s with about a 10 seat advantage in the race for the US House.  There is a large chunk of about 43 seats in the “tossup” category ... so anything could happen ... but the rising tide continues to be BLUE for now.

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 04, 2018, 04:37:02 PM
By October, Trump will have to cancel on Ted Cruz .... because by October Ted won’t want him in Texas.  Donnie’s poll numbers will be further in the toilet.  Maybe Trump will have to cancel because of his bone spurs.

Trump is deeply into the “laughing stock” phase.  Now his every move is being made fun of.  When is Trump visiting Russia?  I hear that housing is very affordable.... and maybe he can get one of Vladi’s oligarchs to give him a house to live in.

Quite possible.  However, those candidates that Trump has supported in the recent primaries have done particularly well.  Perhaps there is a disconnect between Trump polls and other candidate polls.  Trump's poll numbers have been stuck in the 53% / 43% disapproval range for the past several months.  This is actually an improvement over his favorability rating just before the election - Gallup had him at 61% / 36% unfavorable.  Hard to say how this will play out over the next two months. 
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 04, 2018, 04:59:35 PM
The coming blue wave appears to be gaining momentum:

Title: "Poll: Congressional Democrats up 14 points over GOP on generic ballot"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/04/democratic-congressional-candidates-lead-poll-806305

Extract: "A new poll out on Monday shows Democratic congressional candidates with a clear advantage over Republicans just two months out from election day.

In the Washington Post-ABC News poll, registered voters said they favored a generic Democratic candidate over a Republican one by a margin of 52 to 38 percent. The same poll showed Democrats with just a 4 percentage point advantage in April, and with a 12 point advantage in January."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on September 04, 2018, 05:16:57 PM
The coming blue wave appears to be gaining momentum:

Title: "Poll: Congressional Democrats up 14 points over GOP on generic ballot"


Just take into account that wapo polls are way off- I would look at the average- 9.5% on RCP

Just like in the general election ,the "popular vote" , and these polls are somewhat like that- is not as important as each local race. Only poll that counts is at the ballot box. Let's wait and see.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 04, 2018, 07:57:51 PM
The coming blue wave appears to be gaining momentum:

Title: "Poll: Congressional Democrats up 14 points over GOP on generic ballot"


Just take into account that wapo polls are way off- I would look at the average- 9.5% on RCP

Just like in the general election ,the "popular vote" , and these polls are somewhat like that- is not as important as each local race. Only poll that counts is at the ballot box. Let's wait and see.

Yes, all the polls had Clinton winning in 2016 also.  Looking at the individual races, it seems unlikely that the Dems will win the Senate this year, and they may even lose seats.  The Dems will definitely gain seats in the House, but whether they can mount a big enough wave to overcome the Reps advantage remains to be seen.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 04, 2018, 09:14:07 PM
Quote
Only poll that counts is at the ballot box. Let's wait and see.

In Florida (after the 2000 election), we say the only count that matters is the one conducted by your brother.  With all the hackable paperless voting machines out there (I think Ohio in particular), all that matters is the last hacker.

With all the hackable voter lists, I recommend all voters obtain a 'new' voter registration card between now and November, at least to show you were registered recently, when they attempt to turn you away from the polling place.  Call in to your county Supervisor of Elections office or utilize their website (in at least 30 states) to 'update' your registration, even if nothing is changing.  (I just did this in Florida.)
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 04, 2018, 11:34:51 PM
Only poll that counts is at the ballot box. Let's wait and see.

Of course it is possible that the poll is underestimating the size of the blue wave in the House on election day.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 05, 2018, 05:11:53 PM
The potential blue wave is looking taller and taller:

Title: "POLITICO race ratings: 60 GOP House seats in danger"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/05/midterm-race-ratings-2018-806452

Extract: "Roughly 100 of the 240 Republican-controlled House seats are currently within Democratic reach, posing the most serious threat to the GOP majority since the party won control in 2010."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on September 05, 2018, 05:59:56 PM
Only poll that counts is at the ballot box. Let's wait and see.

Of course it is possible that the poll is underestimating the size of the blue wave in the House on election day.
Possible.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

Still 20% chance the dems don't win the house. Not too bad for GOP considering everything :)


edit: just saw you can choose 2 other poll options- lite and deluxe- and both give higher chance for the GOP- 27% and 35%.

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 05, 2018, 06:32:04 PM
Only poll that counts is at the ballot box. Let's wait and see.

Of course it is possible that the poll is underestimating the size of the blue wave in the House on election day.
Possible.

270towin has the Dems ahead 202-199 with 34 races classified as toss ups.  Only one of those is currently a blue seat.  Could go either way.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

Still 20% chance the dems don't win the house. Not too bad for GOP considering everything :)


edit: just saw you can choose 2 other poll options- lite and deluxe- and both give higher chance for the GOP- 27% and 35%.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on September 05, 2018, 07:03:37 PM
Sixty percent of those polled in a new survey disapprove of President Donald Trump's job performance.....
If a few more sexist, racist xenophobes had been interviewed, the percentage would have lowered, despite sexist, racist xenophobes SAYING they hate communists..... while "don'T rump" gives america away to putin.
 
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 05, 2018, 07:28:34 PM
I hear republicans support this dolt who wants to abolish 1st amendment and dictatorize (if that's a word) the Greeat Trumpistan Country (GTC).
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 06, 2018, 02:46:08 PM
Only poll that counts is at the ballot box. Let's wait and see.

Of course it is possible that the poll is underestimating the size of the blue wave in the House on election day.

Considering that the last 5 polls have the Dem generic Congressional advantage at +14, +4, +9, +2, and +5, anything is possible (highlighting the highest Democratic advantage in the polls seems like wishful thinking).  Averaging the last five, gives the Dems a +7 advantage.  Most pundits feel this is not enough to take back the House, although it is close, feeling that +8 to +9 range is needed.  The task is not unattainable, as the Dems did win 32 House seats during Bush's second term in 2006.  However, Bush's approval rating was on the decline, and lower than Trump's rating today (not to mention that the economy was already starting it slide into the recession).  One caveat that stands out among the recent polls, is that those that poll likely voters, as opposed to registered voters, have a much lower Dem advantage (the +4 and +2 polls were both likely voters).  Of course we saw i the last election that an advantage fueled by a  large advantage in fewer districts does not overcome a smaller advantage in many districts.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 07, 2018, 01:22:52 AM
More blue water .....  Cook Political Report moves Virginia 2nd congressional district from “lean Republican” to “tossup.”  They also move Iowa 1st district from “tossup” to “lean Democrat.”

No other seats moved in the last week.  The longer the Republicans stay with Donnie, the higher the blue wave will grow.  Simple as that.

Keep tweeting Donnie.  PLEASE keep tweeting ....😂
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 07, 2018, 12:50:23 PM
Some senate races that I thought, for sure ..... would be won by the Republican candidate, are remaining very close and are in the tossup column still.  Indiana is leaning to the Democrat to my astonishment, Florida is a dead heat, and Tennessee is a tossup or leaning to the Democrat.  And in Texas, Ted Cruz is in a MUCH closer race than anyone expected.  I’m not holding my breath ... I still think Texas is Ted Cruz’s seat to lose .... but I’ll buy the “first round” if Beto wins in Texas. 🍺 🙈
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 07, 2018, 01:30:03 PM
Some senate races that I thought, for sure ..... would be won by the Republican candidate, are remaining very close and are in the tossup column still.  Indiana is leaning to the Democrat to my astonishment, Florida is a dead heat, and Tennessee is a tossup or leaning to the Democrat.  And in Texas, Ted Cruz is in a MUCH closer race than anyone expected.  I’m not holding my breath ... I still think Texas is Ted Cruz’s seat to lose .... but I’ll buy the “first round” if Beto wins in Texas. 🍺 🙈

I do not find them very surprising.  In Indiana, Donnelly bucked the trend in 2012, winning by 6%, when the state backed Romney by 10%.  I expect to see Pence campaigning heavily here, and this race to go down to the wire.  Florida should be similar.  A popular governor is running against a popular Senator.  The only thing certain in this race is that it will be the most expensive Senate race ever.  Tennessee is similar with a popular governor running against a popular Congresswoman.  This is one of the few states where Trump has an overall positive rating, and may come down to turnout.  I would not be surprised to see both governors win these seats. 

One race that may be slipping away from the Democrats is Arizona.  This has less to do with the candidates running, and more to do with a previous Senator.  Not Flake, but McCain.  Bipartisan support more McCain may tilt this race to the Republicans.  One popular Senator that may lose her seat is Heitkamp.  The Republicans are targeting this seat, even though she is likely the most conservative Democrat in Washington.  She won by 1% in a Democratic election year in a state that voted for Trump by 35%.  When all is said and done, I expect Cruz to cruise to victory.  OK, that was a bad pun, but I do not expect this to be close on election day.  Texas is just too much of a red state to allow Beto to win.  If the Republicans win those states, they will maintain their advantage, regardless of the outcomes in the other close races.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 08, 2018, 04:28:52 PM
Based on Kavanaugh' confirmation hearings, there is more than enough evidence of perjury for the Senate Judiciary Committee to request the DOJ to open an investigation of Kavanaugh's record.  If the GOP chair (Grassley) won't approve such a referral, the Democrats should make this a midterm speaking point:

Title: "Liberal groups urge Dems to seek perjury probe of Kavanaugh"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/07/perjury-kavanaugh-liberal-groups-811254

Extract: "Three prominent liberal groups pushing to defeat Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination on Friday urged Democrats to seek a formal perjury investigation of him based on his testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee this week.

Demand Justice, MoveOn, and NARAL Pro-Choice America outlined their case in a letter sent as Kavanaugh’s marathon four-day hearing came to a close, with the Republican Senate still expected to confirm him by month’s end.

The office of the top Democrat on Judiciary, California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, did not immediately return a request for comment on the request by the three liberal groups, which asked the party’s senators “to immediately refer this matter to the Department of Justice for criminal investigation and potential criminal charges.”"


See also:

Title: "Brett Kavanaugh’s perjury avalanche — 50 years in the making"

https://www.salon.com/2018/09/08/brett-kavanaughs-perjury-avalanche-50-years-in-the-making/

Extract: "There’s been a flood of disturbing, formerly secret emails surfacing to and from Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, …"
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 08, 2018, 05:13:24 PM
If the Democrats win control of the House after the midterms, they have plenty of evidence to open impeachment hearing on Kavanaugh, in early 2019:

Title: "I Wrote Some of the Stolen Memos That Brett Kavanaugh Lied to the Senate About"

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/09/judge-brett-kavanaugh-should-be-impeached-for-lying-during-his-confirmation-hearings.html?wpsrc=sh_all_dt_tw_ru

Extract: " Newly released emails show that while he was working to move through President George W. Bush’s judicial nominees in the early 2000s, Kavanaugh received confidential memos, letters, and talking points of Democratic staffers stolen by GOP Senate aide Manuel Miranda. That includes research and talking points Miranda stole from the Senate server after I had written them for the Senate Judiciary Committee as the chief counsel for nominations for the minority.

Receiving those memos and letters alone is not an impeachable offense.

No, Kavanaugh should be removed because he was repeatedly asked under oath as part of his 2004 and 2006 confirmation hearings for his position on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit about whether he had received such information from Miranda, and each time he falsely denied it."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Martin Gisser on September 10, 2018, 02:48:57 PM
Obama's Illinois speech is a great lecture on the state of the union, plus an even greater campaign speech. There should be more of this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHAkDTlv8fA

Alas I think he's arguing way too rational to reach the wingnuts. Just like Angela Merkel in Germany... In that sense he is indeed divisive, as a Faux News bullshitter said: “Barack Obama was one of the most divisive presidents in American history.”
http://insider.foxnews.com/2018/09/08/barack-obama-rips-trump-gop-speech-dan-bongino-reacts-fox-friends
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 11, 2018, 01:45:14 AM
Lesson for Trump: 'You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.'

Title: "2 new polls give Trump and Republicans nightmare signs for the midterms"

https://www.businessinsider.com/polls-trump-approval-rating-midterm-elections-2018-9

Extract: "President Donald Trump is rapidly losing favor among independent voters and has a low approval rating in general despite a strong economy, two new polls show, providing fresh warning signals for the president and the Republican Party ahead of the midterm elections."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on September 11, 2018, 02:31:22 AM
Extract: "President Donald Trump is rapidly losing favor among independent voters and has a low approval rating in general despite a strong economy......
It has been said that a strong economy outweighs other factors in elections. We'll find out if the sexist, racist xenophobe "don'T rump", who commits treason & gives the U.S. to putin, can sink the "Goodship Lollypop Economy".
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: sidd on September 11, 2018, 08:04:59 AM
"You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, and that's usually enough."

sidd
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 11, 2018, 12:07:56 PM
Donnie’s poll numbers are really heading for the gutter.  There are now a handful of polls showing him in the mid-to-high 30’s.  Independents are leaving him in droves.  I hope Donnie makes THREE trips to Texas for Lying Ted.  Please Donnie ..... go to Texas.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 11, 2018, 03:13:32 PM
Donnie’s poll numbers are really heading for the gutter.  There are now a handful of polls showing him in the mid-to-high 30’s.  Independents are leaving him in droves.  I hope Donnie makes THREE trips to Texas for Lying Ted.  Please Donnie ..... go to Texas.

The RCP poll average over the last 10 days has Trump at a 53% unfavorable, 41% favorable rating.  That support is similar to Obama in 2014 (-12%), Bush in 2006 (-13%), and majority party lost an average of 22.5 seats during those elections.  The Democrats need only do marginally better than that average to regain House control.  In 2010, Obama's numbers were slightly better (-8%), but the Dems lost 46 seats.  Now much of that was a pendulum swing back from the Dems gain over the past two elections.  All pundits rate this as roughly a 50:50 scenario, and anything could swing the outcome one way or the other.

 https://news.gallup.com/poll/178043/obama-factor-2014-vote-similar-2010.aspx
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 11, 2018, 04:30:18 PM
One of the Russian Lurkers didn't believe me several weeks ago when I said that Donnie's approval numbers were heading for the toilet.  As Verizon says...... "can you hear me now?"

Again ..... Republican Congressmen have a choice:  Throw him overboard as fast as you can ..... OR ..... continue to suffer at the polls.

This year ...... it is about the House.  Next year and the following year, it will be about the Senate.  Most of Donnie's supporters in Congress are going to be continually painted with the Donald Trump paint brush.

Do they dump him now ..... OR ..... do they wait for Congress to dump him?  Their choice .....

More and more BAD THINGS are going to be coming out regarding Trump in the coming weeks and months.  They AREN'T going to get better.  They are going to get WORSE./b]

It ISN'T the chart that says Donnie's numbers will get worse ...... IT'S THE UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTALS THAT CAUSE THE CHART.

1)  Manafort trial number 2 or Manafort cooperates
2)  Money laundering
3)  Obstruction of justice
4)  Conspiracy
5)  That nasty "T word" will likely come back into the discussion
6)  Trump just continues to blabber and lie ..... and more American's are figuring that out





Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 11, 2018, 04:41:28 PM
"You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, and that's usually enough."

sidd
The NYT has counted well over 4,000 lies told by Trump to the US public since he took office, an average of 8 lies per day in office.  The consequence of these lies may well deliver the US Senate into the hands of the Democratic leadership after the midterms:

Title: "Eight weeks out: Dems see narrow path to Senate majority"

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/405980-eight-weeks-out-dems-see-narrow-path-to-senate-majority

Extract: "Eight weeks out from the midterm elections, both Republicans and Democrats find themselves with a path to a Senate majority.
 
For Democrats, it is a surprising development given this year’s difficult political map: The party is defending nearly two-dozen seats, including 10 seats in states won by President Trump in 2016.
 
Yet if the party can sweep every race considered a toss-up, it would end up with a 52-48 majority in the next Congress — even while losing Texas, where Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) is giving GOP Sen. Ted Cruz a stronger-than-expected challenge."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 11, 2018, 06:20:46 PM
One of the Russian Lurkers didn't believe me several weeks ago when I said that Donnie's approval numbers were heading for the toilet.  As Verizon says...... "can you hear me now?"

Again ..... Republican Congressmen have a choice:  Throw him overboard as fast as you can ..... OR ..... continue to suffer at the polls.

This year ...... it is about the House.  Next year and the following year, it will be about the Senate.  Most of Donnie's supporters in Congress are going to be continually painted with the Donald Trump paint brush.

Do they dump him now ..... OR ..... do they wait for Congress to dump him?  Their choice .....

More and more BAD THINGS are going to be coming out regarding Trump in the coming weeks and months.  They AREN'T going to get better.  They are going to get WORSE./b]

It ISN'T the chart that says Donnie's numbers will get worse ...... IT'S THE UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTALS THAT CAUSE THE CHART.

1)  Manafort trial number 2 or Manafort cooperates
2)  Money laundering
3)  Obstruction of justice
4)  Conspiracy
5)  That nasty "T word" will likely come back into the discussion
6)  Trump just continues to blabber and lie ..... and more American's are figuring that out

Are you seriously using a one-month variation to counter a 10-month trend?  That is worse than those using short-term temperature data to counter long-term trends.  While it is certainly possible that it could continue, it is equally possible that it could reverse.  Nothing much has really changed during the entire time frame.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on September 12, 2018, 12:12:17 AM

The NYT has counted well over 4,000 lies told by Trump to the US public since he took office, an average of 8 lies per day in office.


Do you think that the NYT, or perhaps yourself, should check the veracity of your own statements prior to publishing? Particularly since the piece is intended to draw attention to the Trump's own litany of misstatements.


How many days has Trump been in office according to the above figures?
Should this be counted as a fib, an exaggeration, or as a lapsus linguae


Certainly it's not a lie, or the whole point of your post would be lost.
Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 12, 2018, 03:03:58 AM
The GOP can read the writing on the wall:

Title: "Trump's sagging approval ratings have GOP staring at worst-case scenarios for midterm elections"

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/11/trumps-sagging-approval-ratings-have-gop-staring-at-worst-case-midterm-scenarios.html

Extract: "But now Trump's unpopularity provides Democrats a path to victory for both chambers."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 12, 2018, 03:24:22 AM

The NYT has counted well over 4,000 lies told by Trump to the US public since he took office, an average of 8 lies per day in office.


Do you think that the NYT, or perhaps yourself, should check the veracity of your own statements prior to publishing? Particularly since the piece is intended to draw attention to the Trump's own litany of misstatements.


How many days has Trump been in office according to the above figures?
Should this be counted as a fib, an exaggeration, or as a lapsus linguae


Certainly it's not a lie, or the whole point of your post would be lost.
Terry

I am traveling for some days so I am too preoccupied to do a proper search, but here is a link to an article from June 1, 2018, with 6.5 false or misleading claims per day.  I will look more later.

Title: "President Trump has made 3,251 false or misleading claims in 497 days"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/01/president-trump-has-made-3251-false-or-misleading-claims-in-497-days/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ab8e76f06692

Extract: "In the 497 days since he took the oath of office, President Trump has made 3,251 false or misleading claims, according to The Fact Checker’s database that analyzes, categorizes and tracks every suspect statement uttered by the president.

That’s an average of more than 6.5 claims a day."

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 12, 2018, 03:43:51 AM

The NYT has counted well over 4,000 lies told by Trump to the US public since he took office, an average of 8 lies per day in office.


Do you think that the NYT, or perhaps yourself, should check the veracity of your own statements prior to publishing? Particularly since the piece is intended to draw attention to the Trump's own litany of misstatements.


How many days has Trump been in office according to the above figures?
Should this be counted as a fib, an exaggeration, or as a lapsus linguae


Certainly it's not a lie, or the whole point of your post would be lost.
Terry

I am traveling for some days so I am too preoccupied to do a proper search, but here is a link to an article from June 1, 2018, with 6.5 false or misleading claims per day.  I will look more later.

Title: "President Trump has made 3,251 false or misleading claims in 497 days"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/01/president-trump-has-made-3251-false-or-misleading-claims-in-497-days/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ab8e76f06692

Extract: "In the 497 days since he took the oath of office, President Trump has made 3,251 false or misleading claims, according to The Fact Checker’s database that analyzes, categorizes and tracks every suspect statement uttered by the president.

That’s an average of more than 6.5 claims a day."
Thru September 4 2018, that is 8 false or misleading claims (I think of these as lies) per day, by Trump since taking office:

Title: "President Trump has made 4,713 false or misleading claims in 592 days"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/09/04/president-trump-has-made-false-or-misleading-claims-days/?utm_term=.97dab758f9ea

Extract: "In the 592 days since he took the oath of office, President Trump has made 4,713 false or misleading claims, according to The Fact Checker's database that analyzes, categorizes and tracks every suspect statement uttered by the president.

That's an average of about eight claims a day."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: SteveMDFP on September 12, 2018, 03:47:50 AM

The NYT has counted well over 4,000 lies told by Trump to the US public since he took office, an average of 8 lies per day in office.


Do you think that the NYT, or perhaps yourself, should check the veracity of your own statements prior to publishing? Particularly since the piece is intended to draw attention to the Trump's own litany of misstatements.


How many days has Trump been in office according to the above figures?
Should this be counted as a fib, an exaggeration, or as a lapsus linguae


Certainly it's not a lie, or the whole point of your post would be lost.
Terry

None of the above.  As of today, Trump's been in office 599 days.  Not sure when the count by NYT was tallied, but it could well be an understatement.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on September 12, 2018, 08:16:29 AM

The NYT has counted well over 4,000 lies told by Trump to the US public since he took office, an average of 8 lies per day in office.


Do you think that the NYT, or perhaps yourself, should check the veracity of your own statements prior to publishing? Particularly since the piece is intended to draw attention to the Trump's own litany of misstatements.


How many days has Trump been in office according to the above figures?
Should this be counted as a fib, an exaggeration, or as a lapsus linguae


Certainly it's not a lie, or the whole point of your post would be lost.
Terry

None of the above.  As of today, Trump's been in office 599 days.  Not sure when the count by NYT was tallied, but it could well be an understatement.

They call things that are just "politician talk" lies. If he says Hillary "acid washed" her emails they call it a lie although everyone understands he didn't mean actual acid. I'm not saying he doesn't lie and maybe even more than most but one that fact checks him also should be accurate.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on September 12, 2018, 08:45:37 AM
Obama's Illinois speech is a great lecture on the state of the union, plus an even greater campaign speech. There should be more of this.



Obama: " Trump is doing a terrible job BUT whatever is good- I did it"
Jeez.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on September 12, 2018, 12:53:33 PM

The NYT has counted well over 4,000 lies told by Trump to the US public since he took office, an average of 8 lies per day in office.


Do you think that the NYT, or perhaps yourself, should check the veracity of your own statements prior to publishing? Particularly since the piece is intended to draw attention to the Trump's own litany of misstatements.


How many days has Trump been in office according to the above figures?
Should this be counted as a fib, an exaggeration, or as a lapsus linguae


Certainly it's not a lie, or the whole point of your post would be lost.
Terry

I am traveling for some days so I am too preoccupied to do a proper search, but here is a link to an article from June 1, 2018, with 6.5 false or misleading claims per day.  I will look more later.

Title: "President Trump has made 3,251 false or misleading claims in 497 days"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/01/president-trump-has-made-3251-false-or-misleading-claims-in-497-days/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ab8e76f06692 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/01/president-trump-has-made-3251-false-or-misleading-claims-in-497-days/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ab8e76f06692)

Extract: "In the 497 days since he took the oath of office, President Trump has made 3,251 false or misleading claims, according to The Fact Checker’s database that analyzes, categorizes and tracks every suspect statement uttered by the president.

That’s an average of more than 6.5 claims a day."


I'd counter by noting that 6.5 is not equal to 8. That your statement was factually both false and misleading, and further that using an obvious and evident falsehood in an attempt to impune the honesty of another leaves yourself open to ridicule.


That your statement is " false or misleading" is emphasized when you attempt to equate a Washington Post article indicating 6.5 claims/day with a New York Times claim of 8/day.


It's not the right Newspaper, it's not the right number and it's sounding more and more like the BS that McCarthy spouted when asked how many commies were hiding in the Rose Garden.


"Have you no shame sir?"
Joseph N. Welch


Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 12, 2018, 01:38:22 PM
Per Klondike Kat:
Quote
Are you seriously using a one-month variation to counter a 10-month trend?  That is worse than those using short-term temperature data to counter long-term trends.  While it is certainly possible that it could continue, it is equally possible that it could reverse.  Nothing much has really changed during the entire time frame.

Boy ...... where do I begin?

1)  It isn't a "one-month variation".  It's almost a THREE MONTH variation.  The "one month" variation is an ACCELERATION OF THE SHORT TERM TREND.  The short term trend STARTED on day 518 of Donnie's term ..... today is day 600.  So the "short term trend" is almost 3 MONTHS.  The POSSIBLE INCREASE IN ACCELERATION of that trend ..... is about a month.

We'll know more in the next 2 - 3 weeks weather that ACCELRATION in the trend continues or not. 

Note:  I have inserted BLUE POINTERS (3 of them) to note where the INTERMEDIATE TREND BOTTOM/TOP (Disapproval/Approval) happened.  The APPROVAL rate had a "double top" which is why it has two pointers.

2)  The BREAK in the INTERMEDIATE TERM trend lines is shown by the RED ARROWS.  "Technically" THAT is when the INTERMEDIATE TERM TRENDS BROKE, and Donnies disapproval/approval ratings changed direction (as his poll numbers worsened).

3)  CHARTS DON'T CAUSE THE FUNDAMENTALS.  FUNDAMENTALS CAUSE THE CHART.  And as I noted many weeks ago ..... Donnie's fundamentals were/are HORRIBLE.  At that time .... I noted that the likelihood that Manafort would lose his upcoming Trial #1.  I also believe I noted the continued fallout from Donnie's trip to Helsinki a couple months ago.  I also noted there were SEVERAL pieces of information likely to come out in coming weeks and months.

THAT ..... is what is causing the chart.  Not only the "change of direction" almost 3 months ago .... but also the  POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THE ACCELERATION OF THE NEW TREND.

Donnie can't help himself.  He is ..... a SOCIOPATH.  Not only is he a sociopath, he has surrounded himself with mostly AWFUL EMPLOYEES that are ill equipped to handle their OWN JOBS ..... and as well, they are ILL EQUIPPED TO REIGN IN A SOCIOPATH.  So Donnie will continue to make horrible decisions, continue to rely on himself, continue to ignore facts, and continue to go with his gut.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that.  Someone of average or LESS intelligence (such as myself) can see this clearly.  Even someone like yourself could figure this out.  All you have to do is LOOK AT THE FACTS ..... BECAUSE THEY NEVER GO AWAY.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: SteveMDFP on September 12, 2018, 01:55:08 PM
More on Obama, the Fake News Media and his Democrats from Dore

"It's all like, look over here why we just do all this evil stuff over there." Sam Tripoli

Quote
[09:52] by the way they're (the Media) are joined at the hip with their political establishment and the political establishment wants to push it because they hate Donald Trump because he when he does horrible stuff it looks horrible because he's horrible right - but when Barack Obama does horrible stuff nobody noticed because he's nice!

So these political establishment people want to get Donald Trump out of there so they can get a guy in there who's got a nice face who does horrible things because they're doing horrible things together

The Democrats helped Trump pass an $80 billion extra dollars on his Pentagon budget; they just got there got together a fast track 15 of his judges lifetime appointments; they get the Democrats together to deregulate Wall Street again and again.

So they're all getting this together, it's not Democrat Policy this is for most for the most part it's not policy. But those cages that Trump are putting kids into, Barack Obama built them -- so he was the original Deporter In Chief  --- long before Trump arrived!!!

So again from a lot of people in the Department of Homeland Security we find out the reason why, what are the reasons why they're pushing it? It's because they wanted to take over certain parts of the local elections and state elections that's why they wanted more power (and control over everything.)

Let's go over to my panel because there's more to this story [10:58]
n
Quote
[11:02] And by the way you'd never see this on the TV news! You'll never see "oh by the way the Undersecretary of the Department of Homeland Security said all that stuff was bullshit", you never see that.

It's Dore who has distorted the truth.  I watched the full video of that Homeland Security honcho testifying, posted on CSPAN.  He says, actually, that about 20 election computer systems where scanned, and a small fraction of those were compromised.  His phrasing seems calculated to minimize the significance, but he does say that some systems were compromised.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 12, 2018, 05:53:35 PM
I'd counter by noting that 6.5 is not equal to 8. That your statement was factually both false and misleading, and further that using an obvious and evident falsehood in an attempt to impune the honesty of another leaves yourself open to ridicule.


That your statement is " false or misleading" is emphasized when you attempt to equate a Washington Post article indicating 6.5 claims/day with a New York Times claim of 8/day.


It's not the right Newspaper, it's not the right number and it's sounding more and more like the BS that McCarthy spouted when asked how many commies were hiding in the Rose Garden.


"Have you no shame sir?"
Joseph N. Welch


Terry

Terry,

Your cherry-picking of my posts (as the following is taken from my Reply #249) speaks poorly of you intentions:

Thru September 4 2018, that is 8 false or misleading claims (I think of these as lies) per day, by Trump since taking office:

Title: "President Trump has made 4,713 false or misleading claims in 592 days"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/09/04/president-trump-has-made-false-or-misleading-claims-days/?utm_term=.97dab758f9ea

Extract: "In the 592 days since he took the oath of office, President Trump has made 4,713 false or misleading claims, according to The Fact Checker's database that analyzes, categorizes and tracks every suspect statement uttered by the president.

That's an average of about eight claims a day."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on September 12, 2018, 07:38:05 PM
ASLR
That is simply not what you originally claimed!


You made the whole thing up and you now scramble about trying to find other claims by other papers in a vain attempt to bury that fact.


I'm not going to continue another endless discussion in which you once again refuse to admit that you are wrong.


Terry
BTW - I didn't "cherry pick" some insignificant point, it was the opening paragraph of your post.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 12, 2018, 09:44:33 PM
Per Klondike Kat:
Quote
Are you seriously using a one-month variation to counter a 10-month trend?  That is worse than those using short-term temperature data to counter long-term trends.  While it is certainly possible that it could continue, it is equally possible that it could reverse.  Nothing much has really changed during the entire time frame.

Boy ...... where do I begin?

1)  It isn't a "one-month variation".  It's almost a THREE MONTH variation.  The "one month" variation is an ACCELERATION OF THE SHORT TERM TREND.  The short term trend STARTED on day 518 of Donnie's term ..... today is day 600.  So the "short term trend" is almost 3 MONTHS.  The POSSIBLE INCREASE IN ACCELERATION of that trend ..... is about a month.

We'll know more in the next 2 - 3 weeks weather that ACCELRATION in the trend continues or not. 

Note:  I have inserted BLUE POINTERS (3 of them) to note where the INTERMEDIATE TREND BOTTOM/TOP (Disapproval/Approval) happened.  The APPROVAL rate had a "double top" which is why it has two pointers.

2)  The BREAK in the INTERMEDIATE TERM trend lines is shown by the RED ARROWS.  "Technically" THAT is when the INTERMEDIATE TERM TRENDS BROKE, and Donnies disapproval/approval ratings changed direction (as his poll numbers worsened).

3)  CHARTS DON'T CAUSE THE FUNDAMENTALS.  FUNDAMENTALS CAUSE THE CHART.  And as I noted many weeks ago ..... Donnie's fundamentals were/are HORRIBLE.  At that time .... I noted that the likelihood that Manafort would lose his upcoming Trial #1.  I also believe I noted the continued fallout from Donnie's trip to Helsinki a couple months ago.  I also noted there were SEVERAL pieces of information likely to come out in coming weeks and months.

THAT ..... is what is causing the chart.  Not only the "change of direction" almost 3 months ago .... but also the  POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THE ACCELERATION OF THE NEW TREND.

Donnie can't help himself.  He is ..... a SOCIOPATH.  Not only is he a sociopath, he has surrounded himself with mostly AWFUL EMPLOYEES that are ill equipped to handle their OWN JOBS ..... and as well, they are ILL EQUIPPED TO REIGN IN A SOCIOPATH.  So Donnie will continue to make horrible decisions, continue to rely on himself, continue to ignore facts, and continue to go with his gut.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that.  Someone of average or LESS intelligence (such as myself) can see this clearly.  Even someone like yourself could figure this out.  All you have to do is LOOK AT THE FACTS ..... BECAUSE THEY NEVER GO AWAY.

It is only a 3-month variation due to the way you drew the line.  A linear regression would show much less.  I will agree with you that the next several weeks will tells us more whether this was a real change in the trend of just normal variation.

I a not arguing about Trump's fundamentals.  Rather, they have changed very little over the past year, such that whatever he does in the next few weeks (short of all-out war) will have little effect on the overall fundamentals.  As long as the economy keeps rolling along, Trump's numbers will not fall too far.  In reality, that is one of the few things keeping him above water.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 13, 2018, 01:41:36 PM
Per Klondike Kat:
Quote
Are you seriously using a one-month variation to counter a 10-month trend?  That is worse than those using short-term temperature data to counter long-term trends.  While it is certainly possible that it could continue, it is equally possible that it could reverse.  Nothing much has really changed during the entire time frame.

Boy ...... where do I begin?

I'd begin with a well balanced sensible intelligent fact-based Constitutional / Legal approach.

Such as, even if Trump's number were a 10% approval rating and a 80% Disapproval rating he'd still be the President of the US and would more likely than not remain so until January 2021.

It really doesn't matter how many times a day or week that Buddy calls Trump a Traitor or a Sociopath. It really does not matter what the Polls say from one week, month or year to the next. None of these matters will change a damned thing - Donald Trump is the US President until ........... and retains all his Powers to act as President and to hire and fire as he pleases according to Law.

No amount of wailing tears and no amount of bold text will change that. :)

Well said.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 13, 2018, 03:18:16 PM
Quote
I a not arguing about Trump's fundamentals.  Rather, they have changed very little over the past year, such that whatever he does in the next few weeks (short of all-out war) will have little effect on the overall fundamentals..

I AM talking about "fundamentals" .... and how they are reflected in the chart.  The fundamentals cause the chart.

Trump's fundamentals WORSENED shortly before the chart turned against him.  How?

1)  He announced he was going to meet with Putin in Helsinki.  Just the announcement ALONE (before the actual meeting) was the start of it.

2).
Then .... Donnie REALLY botched things up when he met with Putin in Helsinki and did everything short of giving Vladi oral sex right on the stage.  NOT a good look.  Big mistake (by BOTH Vladi and Trump). 

3)  He started separating kids from their parents coming into the country.  NOT a "good look."  People noticed ..... and have punished him in the polls.

4) The effects of the Trump Tax Cut have had VERY LITTLE BENEFIT for middle income earners, and the tax bill has been shown to be a "bust" in polling numbers.  People don't like it (and for good reason).  That fundamental is being reflected in the chart.

5)  Manafort trial number 1:  Some of Donnie's hard core supporters are just beginning to figure out that there REALLY IS SOMETHING TO THIS RUSSIA THING. The Manafort trial showed this.  Of note..... one of the jurors, an avid Trump supporter, in an interview on FOX said that if Manafort committed crimes, he should pay for it.  THAT IS NOTEWORTHY.  You see .... some of the people that voted for Trump THINK HE REALLY DIDN'T DO ANYTHING.  When it turns out that Trump has lied all along about Russian interference .....a significant portion of his base WILL TURN ON HIM.    There will certainly be a piece of his base that could care less what he did or what he knew.  But it is NOT ALL OF HIS BASE BY ANY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION.  There are some in his base that will leave him.  Manfort trial number 2 will cause some of that.  If Donnie stays in office until the next year ..... AND .... the Democrat's win the House, then NEXT YEAR MORE WILL LEAVE HIM AS PUBLIC HEARINGS EXPOSE HIM.

6)  The ACTUAL outcome of the hurricane from about a year ago in Puerto Rico has been recently released ..... showing that the response to the hurricane was significantly short of a good outcome.7)

If you have a BAD HEAD COACH of a pro football team, and he goes out and hires BAD PLAYERS ..... bad things continue to happen.  That is exactly where Trump is.  He is horrible, and he has gone out of his way to find as many bad employees as he can (with maybe one or two exceptions).  Eventually, ALL the good players will leave.  But right now ..... there aren't enough good players to keep Trump out of trouble.   

Quote
As long as the economy keeps rolling along, Trump's numbers will not fall too far.  In reality, that is one of the few things keeping him above water

First ..... Trump is NOT "above water" .... unless what you mean by above water is "not impeached."  Trump's disapproval numbers are significantly above his approval numbers:  In Fivethirtyeight.com's numbers, Trump is now 14 points UNDER WATER (disapproval 54 vs approval of 40).

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: SteveMDFP on September 13, 2018, 03:41:01 PM

First ..... Trump is NOT "above water" .... unless what you mean by above water is "not impeached."  Trump's disapproval numbers are significantly above his approval numbers:  In Fivethirtyeight.com's numbers, Trump is now 14 points UNDER WATER (disapproval 54 vs approval of 40).

Of course, right now, the most important thing isn't Trump's ratings, it's the R vs D congressional ballot (they're related, but different).   Fivethirtyeight.com is showing a solid floor of support for Rs, at a stable 39%.  The D's have been slowly but steadily rising, now 48.8%. 

I think events (other than the general economy) will tend to improve things for Ds.  The economy is important, but the steady stream of bad events for Hair Furor is a big headwind for the Rs, as they're seen as lapdogs.  They can't campaign against Trump for the general election, or the base won't turn out for them.  They can't really embrace Trump, or moderates will reject them.  I'm cautiously optimistic the House will flip.  The Senate flipping seems wildly improbable still, though.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 14, 2018, 10:45:44 PM
The linked op/ed. piece opines that the Manafort plea deal will help the Democrats in the coming midterm elections:

Title: "Manafort plea deal a pivotal moment in Mueller probe — and in midterms"

http://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/406744-Manafort-plea-deal-a-pivotal-moment-in-Mueller-probe%E2%80%94and-in-midterms

Extract: "The political impact of the Manafort deal will provide a huge lift to Democrats in the upcoming elections. Democrats have made every effort to defend Mueller and to seek the facts in the Russia investigation. Republican refusal to definitively protect Mueller, and the actions of some prominent right-wing Republicans in Congress to keep escalating their attacks against Mueller, the Justice Department and the FBI, will prove disastrous to Republicans in November.

The major trend lines in public opinion will continue. Mueller’s popularity will continue to strengthen. Trump’s popularity will continue to weaken. The Democratic surge in midterm polling will continue. The Republican lag will continue and possibly worsen."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 15, 2018, 02:36:23 PM
Realclearpolitics.com now has the US House race at 206 Dems, 191 Republicans, and 38 “tossups”.  The number needed for a majority is 218.

Still early ..... and anything can happen .... but the blue tide is rising.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 16, 2018, 01:58:05 PM
By the time of the election ..... the Realclearpolitics number (which also closely tracks Cook and Sabato numbers) could be sitting at 210 - 215 Dems and 180 - 185 Republicans with 40 tossups.  The magic total needed for the majority is 218.

Hurricane Donnie is indeed bringing in a high blue tide.  And there are STILL some HUGE “bombs” from the Mueller investigation AND from Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort which .... if they were to become public information before the elections, would destroy both Trump AND the Republicans further.

Trump’s removal from office has always been, and continues to be, a matter of WHEN (and if) the information from the investigations comes public.  Donnie will not resign .... because he would immediately be charged with his criminal behavior.  And right now his sociopathic behavior STILL has him believing he can somehow survive this.

When that thought vanishes, he will try to get rid of Sessions/Rosenstein and try and close down the investigation.  If THAT doesn’t work .... then a one way trip to Russia is a REAL possibility (35% chance right now ... but that can change).

What also needs to be noted, is that Trump’s rate of lying IS INCREASING since Labor Day.  He is spinning out of control.  It’s awfully hard to tell what will be the last straw ... and HOW this will end.  But with someone as sick as Trump at the wheel ... it will likely end badly.

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on September 16, 2018, 03:56:27 PM
  And there are STILL some HUGE “bombs”

On both sides. Will be interesting.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 16, 2018, 06:38:57 PM
In 2012 the GOP decided to become the party of white men and they are about to learn the consequences of that decision in the 2018 midterms:

Title: "The GOP's epic political malpractice"

https://www.axios.com/2018-midterm-elections-republicans-house-senate-d9c0ad07-985a-4b0d-861f-defb73f2f5ca.html

Extract: "A Republican official deeply involved in midterm campaigns told me: "If there was any way to reduce the noise (unlikely!!) we could survive. [There's] so much noise [that it doesn't] allow people to realize economy/life is good."

Be smart: This election could echo long from now. Republicans seem certain to end this election even more defined as the party of white men, a group slowly but surely shrinking in power.

There's a reason that the party’s autopsy after the 2012 election called for an urgent push for inclusion: Demographics don’t lie."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: wili on September 16, 2018, 06:40:10 PM
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/406816-dems-confidence-swells-with-midterms-fast-approaching

Dems' confidence swells with midterms fast approaching

Quote
...Democrats need to pick up 23 seats to capture the Speaker’s gavel — a seemingly heavy lift — but they have history on their side.
 
The party controlling the White House has lost seats in 36 of the 39 midterm cycles going back to the Civil War. The average loss, according to the analysts at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election handicapper at the University of Virginia, is a whopping 33 seats.
 
Democrats, though, see signals well outside of civics textbooks that are fueling the optimistic sense that they’ll control the chamber next year for the first time since they were clobbered at the polls in 2010.
 
The most recent generic poll, a gauge of how voters feel about the parties without naming individual candidates, found the Democrats with a 14 point advantage — an enormous gap predicting the House would likely flip...
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 16, 2018, 10:27:33 PM
The Kavenaugh nomination is now coming under more pressure due to the female California professor coming forward and putting her name to her allegation against him of attempted rape.  In addition, she took and passed a lie detector test.

This also puts more pressure on Congressmen to slow down the process of SCOTUS nomination.  This will spill over and have an effect on the coming November election.

More fuel for a blue high tide ....
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 16, 2018, 10:59:44 PM
The Kavenaugh nomination is now coming under more pressure due to the female California professor coming forward and putting her name to her allegation against him of attempted rape.  In addition, she took and passed a lie detector test.

This also puts more pressure on Congressmen to slow down the process of SCOTUS nomination.  This will spill over and have an effect on the coming November election.

More fuel for a blue high tide ....

I suspect these allegations will have little to no effect.  They are from a high school incident 35 years ago.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on September 16, 2018, 11:28:08 PM
Donnie....Keep tweeting Donnie....
Agree with yer post, 'cept his name is "don'T rump".
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 16, 2018, 11:54:20 PM
Quote
I suspect these allegations will have little to no effect.  They are from a high school incident 35 years ago.

The attempted rape happened 35 years ago.  The LIE about the attempted rape happened this past week.

For anyone with ethics .... things like attempted rape MATTER.  No matter WHEN they happened.  If indeed Kavenaugh did attempt to rape the woman ..... it matters A LOT.  And the fact that he is lying NOW matters a lot.  Also note ...... Kavenaugh has already been caught in a couple of lies from his earlier testimony when he was nominated as a federal judge.

For anyone on Fifth Avenue that sees Donnie shoot someone ..... it won't matter at all.  But the Republican polling numbers CONTINUE TO DECLINE FOR WOMEN ...... AND FOR INDENPENDENTS.

Those WILL BE effected by the Kavenaugh issues.

I expect the Republicans to move forward with his nomination process as quickly as they can.  But they WILL suffer a reaction from some voters.  They (the Republicans) already have two women molesters in office:  Trump and Justice Thomas..... they certainly aren't above adding a third.

 

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: SteveMDFP on September 16, 2018, 11:59:46 PM

I suspect these allegations will have little to no effect.  They are from a high school incident 35 years ago.

I wouldn't be so sure.  Most of Roy Moore's scandalous behavior was similarly long ago. 
As one part of the picture of reasons to oppose Kavanaugh, I think this may tip the scales against him.  Especially so if Senators perceive him to be lying about the facts of the matter.  His truthfulness has already been called into question in other matters before the Senate.  He's fairly strikingly unpopular with the American people. 

Note that the vote to send his name to the floor was already delayed once.  i don't think there'd have been any delay at all if all the R's were firmly on board with him.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 17, 2018, 03:36:28 AM

I suspect these allegations will have little to no effect.  They are from a high school incident 35 years ago.

I wouldn't be so sure.  Most of Roy Moore's scandalous behavior was similarly long ago. 
As one part of the picture of reasons to oppose Kavanaugh, I think this may tip the scales against him.  Especially so if Senators perceive him to be lying about the facts of the matter.  His truthfulness has already been called into question in other matters before the Senate.  He's fairly strikingly unpopular with the American people. 

Note that the vote to send his name to the floor was already delayed once.  i don't think there'd have been any delay at all if all the R's were firmly on board with him.

Yeah, well Moore was in his 30s pursuing underage girls. This case is about two underage high school students.  Big difference.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 17, 2018, 03:48:19 AM

I suspect these allegations will have little to no effect.  They are from a high school incident 35 years ago.

I wouldn't be so sure.  Most of Roy Moore's scandalous behavior was similarly long ago. 
As one part of the picture of reasons to oppose Kavanaugh, I think this may tip the scales against him.  Especially so if Senators perceive him to be lying about the facts of the matter.  His truthfulness has already been called into question in other matters before the Senate.  He's fairly strikingly unpopular with the American people. 

Note that the vote to send his name to the floor was already delayed once.  i don't think there'd have been any delay at all if all the R's were firmly on board with him.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on September 17, 2018, 08:16:18 AM
In Moore's case there was also "evidence" of some sort no matter how bad it was.
and it was an election not a vote in the senate. Big difference.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 17, 2018, 08:38:20 PM
In Moore's case there was also "evidence" of some sort no matter how bad it was.
and it was an election not a vote in the senate. Big difference.

There is more evidence supporting this accusation than a simple 'He said, she said'.

Title: "Christine Blasey Ford"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christine_Blasey_Ford

Extract: "In July 2018, after Judge Brett Kavanaugh was reported to be on the shortlist to become an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States, Ford sent a confidential letter to her Representative Anna Eshoo, who forwarded it to Senator Dianne Feinstein, alleging Kavanaugh had sexually assaulted her when both were in high school. In August she took a polygraph test with a former FBI agent, who concluded she was being truthful. The FBI included a redacted version of her letter in the background material provided to the White House and Senate for Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination.

On September 16, 2018, after the accusations were made public and reporters started to track down her identity, Ford went public. According to her, the sexual assault took place in the summer of 1982 when she was 15 and he was 17. She told The Washington Post that, with another boy watching, Kavanaugh, intoxicated, held her down on a bed with his body, grinding against and groping her, covering her mouth when she tried to scream and trying to pull her clothes off. She recounted escaping when the second boy jumped on them both and they all fell. To corroborate her account, Ford provided The Post with the polygraph as well as session notes from her therapist written in 2012. The notes do not name Kavanaugh but record her claim of being attacked by students "from an elitist boys' school" who went on to become "highly respected and high-ranking members of society in Washington." Ford's husband recalled that she had used Kavanaugh's last name in her 2012 description of the incident."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 17, 2018, 08:50:17 PM
In the 1990's Kavanaugh wrote an email to Ken Starr encouraging him to publically expose all of Bill Clinton's past sexual transgressions, so he must concur that he himself should be treated the same way:

Title: "Why God Is Laughing at Brett Kavanaugh "

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/09/17/kavanaugh-supreme-court-ford-sexual-assault-219983

Extract: "Few prosecutors, it seems likely, would ever open an assault case—36 years later—on the basis of Christine Blasey Ford’s account of being pinned down on a bed by a drunken Kavanaugh, then 17, and being aggressively groped until a friend of his physically jumped in.

But few prosecutors in the 1990s would have pursued an extensive criminal investigation over perjury into a middle-aged man’s lies about adultery if that person had not been President Bill Clinton. In his zeal at the time, Kavanaugh, like Starr, may have worked himself into a belief that this was about sacred principles of law, but to many others—and ultimately to a clear majority of the country—it was obvious that the case was fundamentally about political power.

Kavanaugh’s fate, too, now depends on precisely the same thing: Do the allegations change the calculation for the perhaps half-a-dozen senators—including Republicans Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska—whose minds were not already made up by earlier political calculations?

With the benefit of hindsight, Kavanaugh later concluded presidents should be shielded from criminal investigations of the sort he helped wage against Clinton. At the time, however, he was filled with righteous indignation. “It is our job,” he wrote colleagues in Starr’s office in an email, “to make his pattern of revolting behavior clear—piece by painful piece.”"
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 17, 2018, 10:23:09 PM
Hiring a high-priced lawyer from Wilkinson Walsh + Eskovitz does not mean that Kavanaugh is guilty of attempted rape, but it does mean that he thinks that he is in hot water:

Title: "Kavanaugh, Amid Sexual Assault Claim, Reportedly Hires Beth Wilkinson"

https://www.law.com/nationallawjournal/2018/09/17/kavanaugh-amid-sexual-assault-claim-reportedly-hires-beth-wilkinson/?slreturn=20180817161526

Extract: "Beth Wilkinson has deep experience representing high-profile clients in hot water, and recently commented on her experience as a female trial lawyer."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 17, 2018, 10:38:52 PM
Per the conservative pundit cited in the linked article, the GOP needs to defend Kavanuagh against the attempted rape allegation (even if they are true) in order to improve their chances of overturning Roe v. Wade:

Title: "A conservative reveals what’s really going on with denying Kavanuagh accusations"

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/9/17/17870408/brett-kavanaugh-sexual-assault-allegation-conservatives-abortion

Extract: "Erickson is insisting that this is about something he views as bigger than sexual assault and #MeToo. He sees a desperate power play aimed at preserving Roe v. Wade: Not only should Ford not be believed, but she must have political motivations because the stakes are so very high."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 17, 2018, 10:52:21 PM
The linked article presents background information about Mark Judge and Georgetown Prep, which are not flattering:

Title: "Mark Judge, the other man named in Christine Ford’s Brett Kavanaugh allegations, explained"

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/9/17/17870642/mark-judge-brett-kavanaugh-friend-christine-ford

Extract: "Ford alleges Judge was in the room when Kavanaugh assaulted her — and that he played along.

Ford describes Judge as watching Kavanaugh’s alleged assault, occasionally egging him on, and eventually jumping on top of her and Kavanaugh — a move that allowed her to escape.

Kavanaugh has vehemently denied the allegations as “completely false.” Judge denied them to the Weekly Standard on Friday. (He declined to comment to the Washington Post for its article published Sunday.)

Judge was a classmate of Kavanaugh’s at Georgetown Preparatory School in Maryland and is now a conservative writer who has written for publications such as the Daily Caller and the American Spectator.

He’s floated some controversial ideas in his writings — including asking in 2006 whether gay people are perverts and longing for the days when President George W. Bush could give his wife, Laura, a “loving but firm pat on the backside in public” as a show that he “knew who was boss.” He’s also the author of several books, including one recounting his teenage years of alcoholism and addiction.

As Mother Jones reported, Judge’s 2005 book, God and Man at Georgetown Prep, “apparently paints the school as overrun with gay priests who promote a form of liberalism that wrecks Catholic education.” (The book is now out of print). And both that title and Judge’s 1997 memoir, Wasted: Takes of a Gen X Drunk, detail rampant alcoholism at the school, including his own.

In the book, according to Mother Jones’s Stephanie Mencimer, Judge writes that he reached a point where once he had one beer, “I found it impossible to stop until I was completely annihilated.” He writes that the school made students do community service on Sundays in an effort to try to keep them from drinking too much the night before.

Judge refers to Georgetown Prep as “Loyola Prep” and, according Mother Jones, also changes the names of the people in the book — but he wasn’t too sneaky about it, apparently, because there’s a “Bart O’Kavanaugh” in the book who seems quite likely to be Brett Kavanaugh:"
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 18, 2018, 12:44:09 AM
Kavanaugh & Ford are scheduled to testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Monday; which delays Kavanaugh's confirmation vote:

Title: "Kavanaugh and his accuser to testify publicly on Monday"

https://www.axios.com/kavanaugh-accuser-to-testify-publicly-monday-5da3767b-9813-40b3-9cda-3c01e24debf2.html

Extract: "Brett Kavanaugh and Christine Blasey Ford, the woman who accused the Supreme Court nominee of assaulting her in high school, will be called to testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Monday at 10:00 a.m.

Why it matters: The announcement of the hearing effectively delays Thursday's committee vote on Kavanaugh's confirmation."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 18, 2018, 01:29:42 AM
Intermediate trends that started on 06-17 in the Gallup Poll continue.  Higher disapproval numbers, and lower approval numbers.

This also mirrors the recent numbers advantage by the Democrat's in the House ..... and now even the Senate numbers.  The Senate .... which I thought was a "relative LOCK" by the Republicans is now beginning to show more cracks.  Fivethirtyeight.com now has the odds of the Republicans maintaining the majority at 67% (the odds of the Democrat's taking the majority at 33%).  That has changed materially over the last couple of months.

Still a LOT of VERY CLOSE RACES in the Senate ..... about 9 or so ..... so anything can happen, and the Senate is STILL the Republican's to lose.  But when you have Donald Trump and Ted Cruz on "your side" .... any car CAN be driven into a ditch.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 18, 2018, 04:45:53 AM
All in all, it reminds me of the Shakespearean play, and Benedict and Beatrice will reconcile.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 18, 2018, 02:45:00 PM
Intermediate trends that started on 06-17 in the Gallup Poll continue.  Higher disapproval numbers, and lower approval numbers.

This also mirrors the recent numbers advantage by the Democrat's in the House ..... and now even the Senate numbers.  The Senate .... which I thought was a "relative LOCK" by the Republicans is now beginning to show more cracks.  Fivethirtyeight.com now has the odds of the Republicans maintaining the majority at 67% (the odds of the Democrat's taking the majority at 33%).  That has changed materially over the last couple of months.

Still a LOT of VERY CLOSE RACES in the Senate ..... about 9 or so ..... so anything can happen, and the Senate is STILL the Republican's to lose.  But when you have Donald Trump and Ted Cruz on "your side" .... any car CAN be driven into a ditch.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/

The latest 538 forecast (including those where either party has a slight advantage), the House is at Dem - 216, Rep - 201, with 18 tossups.  The Senate is 49-49 with two tossups (ND and FL).  Although they have both MO and TN going blue, while the polls and other pundits have it as a pure tossup.   I think their odds for a Democratic takeover of the House, but a Republican hold of the Senate will hold. 
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 18, 2018, 09:21:50 PM
Florida governor booed out of restaurant over red tide algae issues

Medicare fraudster and science denier Rick Scott apparently wasn't well received at a restaurant in Florida ...... actually being booed OUT of the restaurant.

A particularly bad "red tide" hit Florida this summer ..... and science denier Rick Scott is TARGET NUMBER ONE.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/407141-florida-governor-booed-out-of-restaurant-over-red-tide-algae-issues

For those of you NOT familiar with Rick Scott ..... Rick was the CEO of Columbia Healthcare when Columbia committed the largest Medicare fraud in US history.  Way to go Rick....  Rick took the fifth amendment 75 times.  Not exactly the most truthful guy on the block.

Getting Rick Scott out of government would be GREAT for Florida AND the US. 
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 18, 2018, 11:19:32 PM
The linked op/ed. makes a few good points as to why Ford's accusations could contribute to a blue wave in November:

Title: "Kavanaugh allegations could be monster storm brewing for midterm elections"

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/407108-kavanaugh-allegations-could-be-monster-storm-brewing-for-midterm-elections

Extract: "The Thomas hearings occurred a full year before the 1992 election, but the repercussions could be seen a year later.  1992 was the Year of the Woman.  The number of female senators went from two to six and the number of women elected to the House from 28 to 47.

Things may be different now.  We're in the “me too” era.  It is no longer possible to dismiss women's claims of sexual harassment as “a fantasy,” as Republicans tried to do with Anita Hill.  Trump supporters may argue that Kavanaugh is being accused of sexual misconduct during his high school years when he was 17 years old, more than 30 years ago.   The problem is that Kavanaugh said last week, “I categorically and unequivocally deny this allegation.  I did not do this back in high school or at any time.”  If he is seen to be lying now, at age 53, it would raise serious doubts about his fitness to serve on the high court."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 18, 2018, 11:38:57 PM
Is Mark Judge afraid to perjure himself under oath in the confirmation hearings?

Title: "Key witness tells senators he won't testify at Kavanaugh hearing"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/18/grassley-kavanaugh-accuser-hearing-827921

Extract: "GOP senators are pressing ahead with a rare public hearing next week on Christine Blasey Ford’s sexual assault allegation against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh despite not yet getting her agreement to testify.

Another key witness in Ford’s decades-old allegation, Kavanaugh’s high school classmate Mark Judge, also declined to testify Tuesday. Judge, who Ford says was the third person in the room when Kavanaugh assaulted her, said in a letter to the Senate Judiciary Committee that “I have no more information to offer the committee and I do not wish to speak publicly regarding the incidents.”"
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 19, 2018, 02:21:03 PM
Is Mark Judge afraid to perjure himself under oath in the confirmation hearings?

BS, Mark Judge is obviously a sane well-balanced sensible person.

If some one ordered me to testify in court about something that happened as a teenager, no matter what the alleged crime was, I would refuse, and if I couldn't refuse and they dragged me into Court in handcuffs then I would not recall a single event. Nothing.

How much could he possible recall from a party 35 years ago in which he was highly intoxicated?  Perhaps he should ask if Christine Blasey Ford is afraid to testify for the same reason.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 19, 2018, 06:26:35 PM
Judge's bad boy behavior in high school is noted in the linked article:

Title: "'Uncontrollable male passion': Writings of Brett Kavanaugh's classmate under scrutiny"

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/09/18/mark-judge-brett-kavanaugh-classmate/1343556002/

Extract: ""Certain women should be struck regularly, like gongs."

That quote from British playwright Noel Coward was featured on Mark Judge's senior yearbook page when he graduated from Georgetown Preparatory School in Bethesda, Maryland, in 1983, according to a report from The Washington Post.

Judge is the man accused of watching and laughing while his friend Brett Kavanaugh – now a nominee to the Supreme Court –  held a girl down and tried to remove her clothes at a party while they were all in high school.

Since the allegations by psychology professor Christine Blasey Ford came to light, the the writings of Judge, an author and columnist, are under intense scrutiny. From his high school yearbook quote to his more recent opinion pieces, Judge's takes on men, women and sexuality are raising eyebrows.

But Judge's memoirs, "Wasted: Tales of a GenX Drunk" and "God and Man at Georgetown Prep: How I Became a Catholic Despite 20 Years of Catholic Schooling," paint a very different picture of what the Post called a "nest of debauchery." And he said his drinking and "immorality" began at that school, even as he credited the education he received there, the Post reported."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 19, 2018, 06:50:20 PM
Go 'Big-Blue', show what you can do:

Title: "Poll: Gillum leads DeSantis by 6 points in Florida governor race"

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/407370-poll-gillum-leads-desantis-by-6-points-in-florida-governor-race

Extract: "Democrat Andrew Gillum holds a 6-point lead over Ron DeSantis (R) in the hotly contested gubernatorial campaign in Florida, according to a new poll.

The Reuters–Ipsos–UVA Center for Politics poll found that 50 percent of voters surveyed support Gillum, compared to 44 percent who back DeSantis."

&

Title: "Poll: Beto O'Rourke leads Cruz by 2 points in Texas Senate race"

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/407369-poll-beto-orourke-leads-cruz-by-2-points-in-texas-senate-race

Extract: "Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D) holds a 2-point lead over incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in a new poll of their Texas Senate race.

The Reuters–Ipsos–University of Virginia Center for Politics poll released on Wednesday found that 47 percent of voters said they favored O'Rourke, while 45 percent said they favored Cruz."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 19, 2018, 09:12:05 PM
It is possible that the subtext of Kavanaugh's comment cited in the linked article means that he thinks it is funny to joke about the attempted rape of 15-year old high school co-eds by 17-year old boys

Title: "'What happens at Georgetown Prep, stays at Georgetown Prep,' Kavanaugh joked in 2015"

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/09/19/brett-kavanaugh-georgetown-prep-joke/1355117002/

Extract: "Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh is facing criticism for a joke he made about his high school in 2015, amid an allegation that he sexually assaulted a girl when he was a high school student.

"What happens at Georgetown Prep, stays at Georgetown Prep," Kavanaugh joked during a speech at the Catholic University's Columbus School of Law in Washington.

Kavanaugh said three of his good friends from Georgetown Preparatory School, who he remained close with, went to Columbus. He praised the law school for gearing its students to care about the poor and underprivileged and instilling a sense of service, which reminded him of his high school's motto, "Be men for others."

And he then said he remembered another unofficial motto from his time at the school.

"But fortunately, we had a good saying that we've held firm to, to this day, as the dean was reminding me before the talk, which is, 'What happens at Georgetown Prep, stays at Georgetown Prep,' " Kavanaugh said, drawing a few laughs. "That's been a good thing for all of us, I think."
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., shared a clip of Kavanaugh making the joke in a tweet on Tuesday.

"I can't imagine any parent accepting this view. Is this really what America wants in its next Supreme Court Justice?" she wrote."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on September 20, 2018, 12:35:27 AM
In the mean time 538 shows the Republicans back to within <8 points of the Democrats. The Trumpster, among those most likely to vote, now is about where Reagan and Clinton were at this stage heading into their first mid-terms.


Time to dig into your pockets, and maybe volunteer to drive a few stragglers to the polls in November.
Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 20, 2018, 12:49:34 AM
More evidence that Dr. Ford's allegation is likely true:

Title: "Accuser's schoolmate says she recalls hearing of alleged Kavanaugh incident"

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/accuser-s-schoolmate-says-she-recalls-hearing-alleged-kavanaugh-incident-n911111

Extract: "A former schoolmate of Brett Kavanaugh’s accuser wrote a Facebook post saying she recalls hearing about the alleged assault involving Kavanaugh, though she says she has no first-hand information to corroborate the accuser’s claims.

"Christine Blasey Ford was a year or so behind me," wrote the woman, Cristina Miranda King, who now works as a performing arts curator in Mexico City. "I did not know her personally but I remember her. This incident did happen."


She added, "Many of us heard a buzz about it indirectly with few specific details. However Christine's vivid recollection should be more than enough for us to truly, deeply know that the accusation is true.""
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on September 20, 2018, 01:46:52 AM
More evidence that Dr. Ford's allegation is likely true:

Title: "Accuser's schoolmate says she recalls hearing of alleged Kavanaugh incident"

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/accuser-s-schoolmate-says-she-recalls-hearing-alleged-kavanaugh-incident-n911111 (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/accuser-s-schoolmate-says-she-recalls-hearing-alleged-kavanaugh-incident-n911111)

Extract: "A former schoolmate of Brett Kavanaugh’s accuser wrote a Facebook post saying she recalls hearing about the alleged assault involving Kavanaugh, though she says she has no first-hand information to corroborate the accuser’s claims.

"Christine Blasey Ford was a year or so behind me," wrote the woman, Cristina Miranda King, who now works as a performing arts curator in Mexico City. "I did not know her personally but I remember her. This incident did happen."


She added, "Many of us heard a buzz about it indirectly with few specific details. However Christine's vivid recollection should be more than enough for us to truly, deeply know that the accusation is true.""


If it's not the Russians interfering in America's elections it's Mexicans messing with the Supreme Court.
The Horror - The Horror
When will these foreigners ever learn.
/sarc


That doesn't even qualify as hearsay - it's school yard gossip from decades past.


Kavanaugh's going to be a terrible Justice. Perhaps the Corporate Democrats who opened the door for him should be run out of town on a rail - or at least voted out of office?


Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 20, 2018, 03:19:30 AM
The GOP rush to judgement:

Title: "Ford lawyer: GOP plan for Kavanaugh hearing 'not a fair or good faith investigation'"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ford-lawyer-gop-plan-for-kavanaugh-hearing-not-a-fair-or-good-faith-investigation/ar-BBNydOi?ocid=spartandhp

Extract: " The lawyer for the woman who has accused Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh of sexual assault, said Wednesday that the GOP's "rush to a hearing is unnecessary, and contrary to the Committee discovering the truth.""
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 20, 2018, 01:46:12 PM
I think it is the opposite.  She has been given a forum to state her case in front of the entire Senate.  Why would she not want to exert her right to do so?  That would seem to be the most effective avenue to verifying her claim,
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: SteveMDFP on September 20, 2018, 03:36:49 PM
I think it is the opposite.  She has been given a forum to state her case in front of the entire Senate.  Why would she not want to exert her right to do so?  That would seem to be the most effective avenue to verifying her claim,

You may want to revisit the Anita Hill history.  She, too, had an 11th hour complaint about sexual misconduct.  She, at least, had an FBI investigation before she testified (and abused therein).  This accuser is asking for the treatment that precedent dictates, that's all.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 20, 2018, 04:27:43 PM
There is GOING to be an investigation into the sexual allegation against Kavanaugh.  If the Republicans don’t want to do it (like Bush senior DID in the Clarence Thomas case) ... that’s their choice.  That will only serve to rile up the Democratic base EVEN MORE.  But even if there is NOT a formal investigation now by the FBI ..... there definitely will be an investigation by private investigators over the coming days/weeks/months ..... and I expect every student that attended one of the two high schools to be interviewed.

Anyone who thinks this is just going to “go away” is sorely mistaken. If there WAS a party .... then there are witnesses to the party, and there are surely witnesses who can place all 3 of the people (Kavanaugh, Kavanaugh’s friend, and the professor) at the scene.

It is NOT a good look that Kavanaugh does not want an FBI investigation ... and I think most of us know what that reason is.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: wili on September 20, 2018, 04:42:01 PM
Yeah, contrast that with Franken, accused of much milder behavior, who welcomed a full investigation, but ultimately and tragically felt too much pressure and resigned, much to the loss of his constituents and the nation, imvho.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 20, 2018, 06:32:37 PM
The difference with Franken is that he was a sitting Senator at the time.  Contrast that with a high school student.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 20, 2018, 08:32:18 PM
.... a high school student 36 years ago, who has already been proven to have lied when he was appointed as a federal judge.

If there is smoke coming from two or three windows in a house, the fire is not far behind. 🤭
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 20, 2018, 08:58:35 PM
Larry Sabato just updated the House and Governor’s races on his site today.  Seven house races were updated ... ALL were updated as moving towards the Democratic candidate.  ALL SEVEN.

The two Governor races they updated also moved towards the Democrat (Colorado and Michigan).  Donnie is losing the Midwest as I stated a week or two ago.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 20, 2018, 09:52:02 PM
One would think that as a nominee to become a Supreme Court Justice that Kavanaugh would be encouraging Grassely to request a FBI investigation of Ford's claims so that:

a) He could get Mark Judge's sworn testimony on this matter;
b) He could see the results of the lie detector test that the FBI administered on Ford about her statement;
c) He could review the records of Ford's psychotherapy sessions on this matter; and
d) He could be assured that the FBI had interviewed Ford's classmates regarding their knowledge of this matter.

Instead Kavanaugh, may only get a disorganized investigation by the Senate Judiciary Committee calling Ford and Kavanaugh into a rushed 'he said, she said' kangaroo court; which will cast a shadow over future Supreme Court rulings (if Kavanaugh is confirmed):

Title: "Ford opens door to testifying next week"

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/407654-ford-opens-the-door-to-testifying-next-week

Extract: "The woman accusing Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh of sexual assault says she's willing to testify next week under certain conditions that have yet to be negotiated.

The lawyer for Christine Blasey Ford told the Senate Judiciary Committee in an email that Ford would be prepared to testify next week if senators offer "terms that are fair and which ensure her safety," The New York Times reported on Thursday."

See also:

Title: "Senate Democrats increase pressure for FBI investigation of Kavanaugh"

https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/407639-senate-democrats-increase-pressure-for-fbi-investigation-of-kavanaugh

Extract: "The signatories identified themselves as former prosecutors and attorneys general.

“The allegations now before us include a number of issues that would ordinarily be addressed by law enforcement,” they wrote. “One of these is the fact that the allegations mention multiple witnesses who may have relevant information to share in an interview. Another is that there are reports of medical evidence and a polygraph test which should be reviewed.”

Democrats argued in their letter to Trump Thursday that the FBI investigated sexual harassment allegations Anita Hill made against then Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas in 1991."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 20, 2018, 10:01:34 PM
The difference with Franken is that he was a sitting Senator at the time.  Contrast that with a high school student.

The point is that a 53-year old Kavangaugh has testified that the incident that Ford cited did not happen; and that the Senate Judiciary Committee could easily subpoena Mark Judge to testify as an alleged witness of this attempted rape, but due to political motivations Kavanaugh, Grassely nor Trump are calling for an FBI investigation of these allegations:

Title: "Brett Kavanaugh"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brett_Kavanaugh

Extract: "Sexual assault allegation

On September 16, 2018, Christine Blasey Ford, a professor at Palo Alto University, alleged Kavanaugh had sexually assaulted her when he was a 17-year old high school student. Specifically, Ford stated that in the early 1980s, when she and Kavanaugh were teenagers, Kavanaugh and a male friend "corralled" her in a bedroom at a house party in Maryland. According to Ford, Kavanaugh pinned her to the bed, groped her, ground against her, and tried to pull off her clothes and covered her mouth with his hand when she tried to scream. Ford said that she was afraid Kavanaugh "might inadvertently kill me" during the attack. According to Ford, Kavanaugh got away when one of his friends from Georgetown Prep School jumped on the bed, knocking them all over. Her attorney, Debra Katz, has stated that Ford considers the assault to have been an attempted rape.

Ford's allegation had previously been made anonymously; she came forward publicly after Republicans criticized the anonymous nature of her allegation against Kavanaugh. Three days earlier, Ford's allegation had come to light in anonymous form, when Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-California) asserted the existence of a complaint by a woman who requested not to be identified, against Kavanaugh, in which she accuses him of trying to force himself on her while physically restraining her when they were both in high school.

Kavanaugh issued a statement through the White House that said, "I categorically and unequivocally deny this allegation. I did not do this back in high school or at any time." Republicans criticized the decision to withhold "a vague, anonymous accusation for months" before releasing it on the "eve of [Kavanaugh's] confirmation" as an attempt to delay the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings.

Ford has provided a therapist's notes of references she made in couples counseling in 2012 describing the psychological effects of the alleged assault. The therapist's notes, parts of which were released on September 16, 2018, confirm that she had stated that she was assaulted by students "from an elitist boys' school", who eventually became "highly respected and high-ranking members of society in Washington", although the notes do not name Kavanaugh. Notes from another session a year later show that Ford had previously described a "rape attempt" while in high school.

The Senate Judiciary Committee released a letter on September 14, 2018, in which 65 women signatories who say that they've known Kavanaugh "for more than 35 years" and during the time they've known him, "he has behaved honorably and treated women with respect." Twenty-four women who attended the Holton-Arms School along with Ford sent a letter to Congress expressing support for her.

In response to the Ford allegation, the Senate Judiciary Committee invited both Kavanaugh and Ford to provide testimony before the Committee on September 24, 2018. Kavanaugh has agreed to testify on September 24. Ford requested that the Federal Bureau of Investigation investigate her allegation first, but Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Chuck Grassley declined that request and gave Ford a deadline of Friday, September 21 to tell the Committee whether she intends to testify. Grassley added that Ford was welcome to appear before the Committee either privately or publicly."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on September 20, 2018, 10:11:45 PM
Obama really missed....
Lurch is still upset that "merica broke its streak of white men  Pressy-dents. Or maybe not. Lurch is in Moscow pumpin' murderer torturer putin propaganda  & appears to love its internet slogging.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on September 20, 2018, 10:26:56 PM
If indeed Kavenaugh did attempt to rape the woman  ...... Kavenaugh has already been caught in a couple of lies from his earlier testimony when he was nominated as a federal judge.
Ford has passed a lie detector test, & wants an FBI investigation. Kavenaugh has not offered to take a lie detector test or encourages an FBI investigation. He'll hide behind re-pubic-lick-un white men, who will char-broil Ford, after they put her on a testimony spit. 
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: jacksmith4tx on September 20, 2018, 10:28:41 PM
This is completely anecdotal but it could be a proxy for Republican turnout.

http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2018/09/nra-in-the-red-for-2nd-straight-year/

Quote
The National Rifle Association is traditionally one of the most powerful and financially intimidating interest groups in Washington. But a new third-party audit of the group’s finances obtained by OpenSecrets raises questions about its long-term fiscal health.

The document offers the first look at the NRA’s finances in the wake of the 2016 elections. It shows that for the last two years, the NRA saw plummeting income from dues-paying members, and that has, in turn, fueled growing deficits.
...

Just like the melting polar ice caps are a proxy from AGW this may show there are signs the hard core Trump base is loosing enthusiasm. Other GOP analysts have been sounding the alarm that the base is becoming complacent. It's a version of the old saying 'too much of a good thing' and it may be sapping the energy of the right wing. If the GOP reverts to their normal tactics we should see increased emphasis on immigration, racial division, and religious freedoms to stoke up fear and loathing.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on September 20, 2018, 10:37:35 PM
Time to..... drive a few stragglers to the polls in November......Terry
We vote by mail & even the postage is free. Jes' hopin' lots of russians or re-pubic-lick-uns don't waylay U.S. postal trucks. Guess its easier to hack vote tabulators. But, russians & re-pubic-lick-uns are so good at heavy-handed tactics.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 21, 2018, 01:15:27 AM
Time to..... drive a few stragglers to the polls in November......Terry
We vote by mail & even the postage is free. Jes' hopin' lots of russians or re-pubic-lick-uns don't waylay U.S. postal trucks. Guess its easier to hack vote tabulators. But, russians & re-pubic-lick-uns are so good at heavy-handed tactics.

Neither Russians nor illegals are waylaying our elections.  These are just propaganda played out by the major parties.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on September 21, 2018, 01:51:52 AM
Neither Russians nor illegals(not re-pubic-lick-uns?) are waylaying our elections.  These are just propaganda played out by the major parties.
Blame dems, while re-pubic-lick-uns back "don'T rump". Murderer, torturer, perp putin's propaganda patrol pokes into websites & propagandizes better'n anybody. 
Anyhow, today Cohen is singing to Robert Mueller about "don'T rump, russian collusion & probably lots of tallies on "don'T rump" & russian billionaire white-washed illegal & stolen gains. My money is on the russian white-washed stolen money is what bailed "don'T rump" out of bankruptcy in the 90's. As I said elsewhere, Mueller's got all his ducks lined up in a row..... & he is a very good shot (5 straight convictions plus 3 or 4 other singers warbling harmony in the backgroud).
How's 'bout dat, Neven. No VEE-NAK-U-LER.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 21, 2018, 04:30:48 AM
The tide is REALLY starting to run against Kavanaugh.  If Trump wants to ram Kavanaugh through, his lemmings in Congress like Grassly and others will suffer a very steep price in November.  I still expect Trump to try and ram him through ..... Trumpn KNOWS he will need his vote.

Grassley and Hatch have now been caught in absolute lies.  The Republicans are starting to implode.  Remember, pressure kills.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: sidd on September 21, 2018, 05:40:28 AM
Re: Grassley, Hatch, elections 2018

Grassley don have to run till 2022. Hatch is retiring.

sidd
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on September 21, 2018, 06:43:57 AM
Every single president since Eisenhower has been accused of being a crook, a fraud, a liar, a war criminal, an incompetent or a Traitor.
Oh, "don'T rump" is campaigning for all the above...... plus sexist(many times over), racist (many times over), xenophobe (many times over), indebted to putin (by hundreds of millions of dollars), & inserted into U.S. presidency by pumped putin propaganda patrol (once).
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on September 21, 2018, 09:30:44 AM
The tide is REALLY starting to run against Kavanaugh. 

Where have you seen anything that shows that trend?
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on September 21, 2018, 09:41:10 AM
.....the last two years, the NRA saw plummeting income from dues-paying members.....
Ah, the NRA, pretends they got no money. The propaganda NRA got lotsa dough from the Arms makers to talk & bribe the good fight.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 21, 2018, 02:22:50 PM
In a NBC/Wall Street Journal poll...... support for Kavanaugh among Independents went down 31 points from August to September.  In August, Kavanaugh’s approval was 15 points MORE than his disapproval.  In September, his approval is 16 points LESS than his disapproval.  THAT is gobsmacking.  A 31 point swing in ONE MONTH.

And if Trump continues to push the Kavanaugh confirmation through ...... Republicans will pay a high price.  I expect Trump to do that.  That is a measure of just how much Trump needs Kavanaugh when Donnie starts going off the deep end.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 22, 2018, 01:59:40 PM
The Beto vs Ted Cruz debate for the Senate seat in Texas was last night.  I think both guys had their hands full.  I only saw some clips of it last night, but from what I saw and what I read, Beto did very well.

Ted is a seasoned and trained debater.  He has gone before the US Supreme Court many times.  Debating isn’t Teds weakness.  Being a dick who looks like he thinks he is the smartest guy in the room is his problem.  People REALLY don’t like him.

Beto is very sharp ..... and likeable.  Empathy isn’t something you can teach someone.  You either have it in your soul, or you don’t.  Beto can place himself in someone else’s shoes.

The Cook Political Report moved Texas to a tossup from lean Republican yesterday.  It looks like Beto’s debate outcome will also not hurt his chances.  This is STILL Cruz’s race to lose in RED Texas ... but it is getting more interesting by the day.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 22, 2018, 02:26:50 PM
The Kavanaugh fiasco continues to hurt Republicans.  If I were Chuck Grassley and Mitch McConnel, I would ram through the Kavanaugh vote TODAY ..... before Kavanaugh’s approval rating goes to ZERO.

The Kavanaugh confirmation is being driven by Trump due to RussiaGate.  But Kavanaugh’s abysmal ratings MAY provide at least the Democrats in the Senate with “cover” to vote NO.  McCaskill has already come out and said she would vote no.  We’ll see what happens in North Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, etc.

And then there is Maine, Alaska, and Arizona.  Will anyone have balls on the Republican side to vote NO?  Jeff Flake appears to be neutered.... so I’m not holding my breath.  Murkowski in Alaska is the most likely no vote ..... but the Dems would need TWO Republican no votes (assuming ALL the Dems voted no).

Kavanaugh is going to continue to weigh on the polling of Congressmen through the election.  The Republicans have really handled this poorly, and Independents are leaving them in droves.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 22, 2018, 02:54:41 PM
I would stay away from the Gosar family this Thanksgiving.  Paul Gosar is running for re-election in the 4th Congressional District in Arizona (he’s a Republican) ... and SIX of his brothers and sisters have participated in an advertisement for his seat.

What’s so unusual about that you ask?  Well ... the advertising is FOR THE DEMOCRAT that Gosar is running AGAINST.

That’s right ..... 6 of his siblings are part of an ad against their brother.

Please pass the gravey ...
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on September 23, 2018, 09:00:09 AM
The Kavanaugh fiasco continues to hurt Republicans.  If I were Chuck Grassley and Mitch McConnel, I would ram through the Kavanaugh vote TODAY ..... before Kavanaugh’s approval rating goes to ZERO.



UNLESS, it turns out that the whole thing was a nothingburger (still possible) and the Dems's will hurt so badly ( and all the media,celebrities) and the confirmation will be all the easier with extra points for the GOP.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 23, 2018, 02:22:18 PM
The Kavanaugh fiasco continues to hurt Republicans.  If I were Chuck Grassley and Mitch McConnel, I would ram through the Kavanaugh vote TODAY ..... before Kavanaugh’s approval rating goes to ZERO.



UNLESS, it turns out that the whole thing was a nothingburger (still possible) and the Dems's will hurt so badly ( and all the media,celebrities) and the confirmation will be all the easier with extra points for the GOP.

Yes, that would be big self-inflicted implosion.  Without corroboration, her allegations are becoming suspect.  Still, we shall see how the public responds.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 23, 2018, 04:04:09 PM
...
Yes, that would be big self-inflicted implosion.  Without corroboration, her allegations are becoming suspect.  Still, we shall see how the public responds.
What is called when someone gives conditions that have already been met?  Some corroboration from a former classmate (now living in Mexico) exists.  There's her husband's statement and therapist's notes and her lie-detector test. There's corroboration of his HS drinking problem.  There's his saying recently that their motto of what happened there (in HS) stays there is a comfort (or words to that effect).  There is his unwillingness to talk about his HS sex life behind closed doors with friendly administration personnel.  Not proof, but definitely corroborating evidence.

Or is the only acceptable corroboration, in your opinion, a high-def video with sound, showing them from the hour before through the described attack?

It is apparent he was really slimy back then.  I think (my opinion, now) he still is.

And yes, Democrats have their slimy members, too.  (I think NJ's Senator Menendez should be kicked out of the Senate by the Senate.)
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: SteveMDFP on September 23, 2018, 04:20:51 PM
 
. . .
Not proof, but definitely corroborating evidence.
 . . .

Quite right, there's a substantial body of corroborating evidence. There's also the detail that the third person in the room refuses to come forward. 

I'm somewhat sympathetic to the thought that the actions of a drunken 17 year-old boy shouldn't be used to torpedo the career of the man 30 years later.  The larger issue is whether he's lying about his past right now.  There's strong evidence that he lied to the Senate about his use of stolen emails, perhaps a couple of other matters.

It's certainly possible that he simply doesn't remember this drunken episode, that he's being sincere in his denial.  But then he'd be expected to be able to pass a lie detector test.  Ordinarily, I'd object to the idea of subjecting a nominee to a lie detector test.  In this case, it may be the only way to establish his honesty, when there are credible reasons to doubt his honesty.

In all, there may be enough legitimate questions to enable all the Dems to vote against, as well as a couple of Repubes.  We can only hope.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 23, 2018, 06:20:15 PM
 
. . .
Not proof, but definitely corroborating evidence.
 . . .

Quite right, there's a substantial body of corroborating evidence. There's also the detail that the third person in the room refuses to come forward. 

I'm somewhat sympathetic to the thought that the actions of a drunken 17 year-old boy shouldn't be used to torpedo the career of the man 30 years later.  The larger issue is whether he's lying about his past right now.  There's strong evidence that he lied to the Senate about his use of stolen emails, perhaps a couple of other matters.

It's certainly possible that he simply doesn't remember this drunken episode, that he's being sincere in his denial.  But then he'd be expected to be able to pass a lie detector test.  Ordinarily, I'd object to the idea of subjecting a nominee to a lie detector test.  In this case, it may be the only way to establish his honesty, when there are credible reasons to doubt his honesty.

In all, there may be enough legitimate questions to enable all the Dems to vote against, as well as a couple of Repubes.  We can only hope.

There is quite a bit of speculation that the third “witness” refuses to come forward, because he is not the innocent bystander.  Regarding corroborating evidence, heresay does not count.  There is still too little evidence to come to any conclusion yet.  So far, it has been divided along political lines.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: SteveMDFP on September 23, 2018, 06:28:36 PM
  Regarding corroborating evidence, heresay does not count.  There is still too little evidence to come to any conclusion yet.  So far, it has been divided along political lines.

Hearsay is inadmissible in a criminal trial, but this isn't a prosecution.  A standard of proof of evidence used to send someone to prison doesn't really apply to appointing a person to the Supreme Court.  Credible questions of truthfulness and character should suffice to say a given person isn't a sterling candidate.  In this context, there is a substantial body of relevant corroboration.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 23, 2018, 07:20:38 PM
  Regarding corroborating evidence, heresay does not count.  There is still too little evidence to come to any conclusion yet.  So far, it has been divided along political lines.

Hearsay is inadmissible in a criminal trial, but this isn't a prosecution.  A standard of proof of evidence used to send someone to prison doesn't really apply to appointing a person to the Supreme Court.  Credible questions of truthfulness and character should suffice to say a given person isn't a sterling candidate.  In this context, there is a substantial body of relevant corroboration.

Thus far, questions of truthfulness and character apply to both.  Obviously, that cannot be the class.  I have yet to see any corroborating evidence presented.  What do you know that can be added?
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 23, 2018, 07:37:07 PM
However well the US system works, we can watch it in action this coming Thursday at 10am E.T.:

Title: "Kavanaugh accuser agrees to testify on Thursday"

https://www.axios.com/kavanaugh-accuser-senate-judiciary-committee-hearing-d798f372-5f82-4094-a3f3-5260c5e45b1e.html

Extract: "Dr. Christine Blasey Ford, the woman who accused Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh of sexually assaulting her in high school, has officially agreed to testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Thursday at 10 a.m. ET.

The details: Per Ford's attorneys, no decision has been made about whether senators or staff attorneys will be asking questions. The committee has also refused to subpoena Mark Judge, who Ford says was present in the room when Kavanaugh assaulted — or any other witnesses.

"We made important progress on our call this morning with Senate Judiciary Committee staff members.  We committed to moving forward with an open hearing on Thursday Sept 27 at 10:00 am. Despite actual threats to her safety and her life, Dr. Ford believes it is important for Senators to hear directly from her about the sexual assault committed against her.  She has agreed to move forward with a hearing even though the Committee has refused to subpoena Mark Judge. They have also refused to invite other witnesses who are essential for a fair hearing that arrives at the truth about the sexual assault.  A number of important procedural and logistical issues remain unresolved, although they will not impede the hearing taking place.  Among those issues is who on the Majority side will be asking the questions, whether senators or staff attorneys.  We were told no decision has been made on this important issue, even though various senators have been dismissive of her account and should have to shoulder their responsibility to ask her questions.  Nor were we told when we would have that answer or answers to the other unresolved issues. We look forward to hearing back from the Majority staff as soon as possible on these important matters."

— Attorneys for Dr. Christine Blasey Ford
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 23, 2018, 07:40:09 PM
The Democrats are steadily pulling ahead of the GOP in the 2018 midterm polls:

Title: "New poll shows Democrats' lead expanding ahead of midterms"

https://www.axios.com/2018-midterm-elections-democrats-lead-44e9aac9-085c-41df-b8d0-f25f9749d7fc.html

Extract: "52% of registered voters would like to see the Democrats control Congress after the November elections, while 40% prefer Republicans, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Why it matters: This is the biggest lead Democrats have held yet in midterm polling from NBC/WSJ, and it's bolstered by figures that show more Democrats turned out in House primaries than Republicans for the first time since 2008. The poll also indicates, however, that Republican enthusiasm for the midterms has increased."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on September 23, 2018, 08:58:19 PM
Could the Kavinaugh hearings be increasing Republican's chances in the coming elections?


According to 538 polls both Trump and the Republicans have seen their numbers increase strongly since Sept 12th. Trump's approval rating jumped from 40.6% to 43.8% among likely voters while the Democratic lead slipped from a 9.4% lead to an 8.8% today.


This could be a blip in the polling numbers, could be a factor of independents coming down from the fence they had been straddling, but it could also be a reaction by prospective voters to what some perceive as an unwarranted attack on Kavinaugh over an incident that may or may not have occurred some 30 years ago when he was a 17 year old student.


I'd hate to be held accountable for my actions as a teen, and it may be that many share this perspective. What actually occurred will almost certainly never be agreed on, but the fairness of bringing up this accusation under these circumstances is being weighed by the voting public.


Kavinaugh will almost certainly not be a Supreme Court Justice whose rulings I'll approve of, but the party of JFK and Bill Clinton attacking him as a sexual predator might be seen as opportunistic or even hypocritical at first blush.


Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: wili on September 23, 2018, 09:19:58 PM
ASLR: That should be 52% for the Dems, not 2%! :)
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on September 23, 2018, 09:54:42 PM
Trump's Republicans are doing such an abysmal job of running the country that a Blue Tsunami should sweep the land this November, yet Democrats and their supporting media seem to ignore real evidence of corruption, stupidity, and errors in judgement while chasing after issues that are of minor importance at best.


Trump supplies arms and personnel to aid the KSA's war against Yemen, while we scream that he hasn't bombed Syria - enough.


Republicans make a laughing stock of the EPA, and we accuse them of bullying Ford.


Trump begins and escalates a trade war against China, as we castigate him for speaking with Putin.


Trump tears up Obamacare, while we ignore the consensus that favors single payer.


I believe we're leaving many voters with the impression that the Trump Republicans can't really be too bad, because otherwise we'd attack them over substantial issues rather than hounding them for the same kind of things that they used to attack us for doing when we were in power.


Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 23, 2018, 11:53:49 PM
ASLR: That should be 52% for the Dems, not 2%! :)

I have corrected my cut & paste error
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 24, 2018, 12:10:45 AM
The linked article makes it clear that the GOP can no longer claim to be the competent party, and consequently they will pay with lost votes in the coming midterms:

Title: "Kavanaugh: How The Republican Leadership Broke The Four Rules Of Crisis Management"

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2018/09/23/how-the-republican-leadership-broke-the-four-rules-of-crisis-management/#677fc3a768d7

Extract: "It remains to be seen what happens at the hearing of Ford and Kavanaugh, now apparently confirmed for September 27. Through failure to adhere to the rules of crisis management, there is now greater-than-zero chance that Kavanaugh will not be confirmed.

Moreover the Republicans have guaranteed that Democrats will be even more energized going into the mid-term elections in November. The Republican brand with women also risks being further weakened.

Perhaps most seriously, through politicizing the nomination process, the authenticity and apolitical character of the Supreme Court has been jeopardized."

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 24, 2018, 02:28:17 AM
Once again, the roach theory is rearing it’s ugly head.  You knew, with a person of Kavanaugh’s party background and friends like Mr. Judge ...... that the professor was NOT going to be the last alledged victim.

And now their are 3 alledged victims, a client of Michael Avenatti’s now being the third alledged victim.

Donnie is not going to want to drop Kavanaugh for the SCOTUS position.  Kavanaugh is indebted to Trump AND Kavanaugh is also easily blackmailed.  THAT is perfect for Trump.

Will the Senate Judiciary Committee continue to push Kavanaugh through?  The polls numbers for Kavanaugh AND the Republicans continue to go south.

Ball is in Mitch and Donnie’s court.  Pressure kills ....
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: SteveMDFP on September 24, 2018, 03:12:01 AM


And now their are 3 alledged victims, a client of Michael Avenatti’s now being the third alledged victim.
 

A detailed report of the 2nd case, Ramirez, is in the New Yorker:

Senate Democrats Investigate a New Allegation of Sexual Misconduct, from Brett Kavanaugh’s College Years
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/senate-democrats-investigate-a-new-allegation-of-sexual-misconduct-from-the-supreme-court-nominee-brett-kavanaughs-college-years-deborah-ramirez (https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/senate-democrats-investigate-a-new-allegation-of-sexual-misconduct-from-the-supreme-court-nominee-brett-kavanaughs-college-years-deborah-ramirez)

Standing on its own, it's a relatively weak account.  But it tends to support the first account. 

The country deserves Supreme Court justices who don't have such clouds around their character.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 24, 2018, 03:41:46 AM
Here is a link to an article about Avenatti's claims:

Title: "Avenatti claims client has 'credible information' on Kavanaugh, ex-classmate"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/avenatti-claims-client-has-credible-information-on-kavanaugh-ex-classmate/ar-AAAxZyn?ocid=spartandhp

Extract: "Michael Avenatti, the lawyer representing adult-film actress Stormy Daniels, announced Sunday that he is representing a client with "credible information" regarding Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and his former classmate, Mark Judge.

"I represent a woman with credible information regarding Judge Kavanaugh and Mark Judge," Avenatti said on Twitter. "We will be demanding the opportunity to present testimony to the committee and will likewise be demanding that Judge and others be subpoenaed to testify."

"The nomination must be withdrawn," he added."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 24, 2018, 04:34:34 PM
Just a brief walk back into history ..... and RECENT history at that.  It is a “tried and true” strategy to “deny .... deny .... deny” any and all allegations against you.  Let’s take a look at the history of denial over the last 50 years or so:

1). Nixon.  This is the obvious one.  Even after he was caught.  In an interview with David Frost, years after Nixon resigned .... he still couldn’t bring himself to admit guilt.

2). Jose Cansako:  Ex Major League Baseball player.  He denied using performance enhancing drugs for years.  He FINALLY admitted to it decades after he retired.

3). Lance Armstrong:  Denied using PED’s.  He was a cyclist that won countless Tour de France races .... using PED’s and wasn’t shy about trashing ANYONE who crossed him about the subject.

4). Bill Cosby.  He denied (and still denies) using date rape drugs to sexually attack women.

5). Trump:  He denies any and all allegations against, even though we know at least some of them (and most likely MOST of them) are true.

You could also talk about Roger Ailes and Bill O’Reilly Of FOX News fame, who denied sexual allegations against them.  Unfortunately for Roger ... there were TAPES.  Lordy there were tapes.

The obviously correct road .... is to have the FBI investigate the 3 allegations BEFORE Senators address the issue with Kavenaugh and his accusers in open Senate questioning before the Senate Judiciary Committee.  Will that happen?  No way.   Donnie needs another judge on the SCOTUS and he is not going to let this one get away if there is any way possible to get him through.

Independents and women continue to drift away from Trump and the Republicans in the polls as they refuse to do the right thing and investigate the charges.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 24, 2018, 06:48:41 PM
No wonder the GOP won't let Mark Judge testify at the Kavanaugh hearing:

Title: "This Is the Most Disturbing Paragraph in the New Kavanaugh Story"

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/09/brett-kavanaugh-confirmation-elizabeth-rasor-contradicts-mark-judges-claims-about-sexual-misconduct-at-georgetown-prep.html

Extract: "Christine Blasey Ford has accused Kavanaugh of sexually assaulting her at a drunken party while Judge was in the room. As Ford tells it, Judge at points even egged Kavanaugh on, telling him to “go for it” as he tried to remove her clothing. Judge has said he has “no recollection of the incident” and has characterized the allegations as completely unrealistic and out of character. “I can recall a lot of rough-housing with guys,” he said in an interview with the Weekly Standard. “I don’t remember any of that stuff going on with girls.”

Rasor, however, says that’s not true and is coming forward to contradict his claim. “Under normal circumstances, I wouldn’t reveal information that was told in confidence,” Rasor said. But she said that “I can’t stand by and watch him lie.” The New Yorker summarizes why Rasor says Judge was being disingenuous claiming that there weren’t incidents of “rough-housing” with female students at Georgetown Prep:

Rasor recalled that Judge had told her ashamedly of an incident that involved him and other boys taking turns having sex with a drunk woman. Rasor said that Judge seemed to regard it as fully consensual. She said that Judge did not name others involved in the incident, and she has no knowledge that Kavanaugh participated. But Rasor was disturbed by the story and noted that it undercut Judge’s protestations about the sexual innocence of Georgetown Prep.

Judge’s lawyer says he “categorically denies” Rasor’s claim.

But Rasor isn’t alone. Another woman, who asked to remain anonymous, also disputed Judge’s claims about the culture at Georgetown Prep. She said that it was common for male students to “get a female student blind drunk” on a mixture of grain alcohol and Hawaiian Punch that they called “jungle juice” and then try to take advantage of her. “It was disgusting,” she said. “They treated women like meat.”
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 24, 2018, 06:53:24 PM
It will be interesting to see whether the GOP allows Avenatti's witnesses to testify in the Kavanaugh hearings:

Title: "What does Michael Avenatti have on Brett Kavanaugh? What we know so far."

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/9/24/17896136/michael-avenatti-email-brett-kavanaugh-devils-triangle

Extract: "The attorney began to post emails between himself and Mike Davis, the chief counsel for nominations for the Senate Judiciary Committee, in which Avenatti claimed that he has “significant evidence” of parties in Washington, DC, during the 1980s during which Kavanaugh, Judge, and others would “participate in the targeting of women with alcohol/drugs in order to allow a ‘train’ of men to subsequently gang rape them.” He also tweeted about one of Kavanaugh’s yearbook entries and called for Judge to testify under oath to the judiciary panel."
...
Exactly what information Avenatti has — or whom he’s representing — isn’t known. The flamboyant lawyer with 2020 presidential aspirations shared on Twitter another email to Davis outlining his requests for the committee, followed by a tweet touting a court appearance with Daniels later in the day."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 24, 2018, 08:24:42 PM
The Maryland police are prepared to investigate allegation of 4th sexual-misconduct against Kavanaugh:

Title: "Kavanaugh May Face 4th Sexual-Misconduct Allegation: Report"

https://www.thedailybeast.com/kavanaugh-may-face-4th-sexual-misconduct-allegation-report

Extract: "Maryland authorities confirmed Monday that they are aware of a second accusation of sexual assault in Montgomery County against Supreme Court Justice nominee Brett Kavanaugh, according to a report from The Sentinel. Authorities were extremely vague about the claims, which allegedly came from an anonymous witness and are said to concern Kavanaugh’s behavior during his senior year of high school. No complaints have been filed formally. “We are prepared to investigate if the victim wants to report to us,” the Montgomery County police chief told the paper, “and we can determine [if] it occurred in the county.”

If the alleged accuser does file a complaint, the Sentinel notes, it could bring the number of women accusing Kavanaugh to four: Christine Blasey Ford, Deborah Ramirez—whose allegations were revealed in another explosive New Yorker piece Sunday night—lawyer Michael Avenatti’s purported client, and the Montgomery County woman."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 24, 2018, 08:28:51 PM
Perhaps you should try posting articles was more credible and less biased sites. 
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: wili on September 24, 2018, 09:35:15 PM
Quote
"Kavanaugh May Face 4th Sexual-Misconduct Allegation: Report"

https://www.thedailybeast.com/kavanaugh-may-face-4th-sexual-misconduct-allegation-report

"Maryland authorities confirmed Monday that they are aware of a second accusation of sexual assault in Montgomery County against Supreme Court Justice nominee Brett Kavanaugh, according to a report from The Sentinel. Authorities were extremely vague about the claims, which allegedly came from an anonymous witness and are said to concern Kavanaugh’s behavior during his senior year of high school. No complaints have been filed formally. “We are prepared to investigate if the victim wants to report to us,” the Montgomery County police chief told the paper, “and we can determine [if] it occurred in the county.”

If the alleged accuser does file a complaint, the Sentinel notes, it could bring the number of women accusing Kavanaugh to four: Christine Blasey Ford, Deborah Ramirez—whose allegations were revealed in another explosive New Yorker piece Sunday night—lawyer Michael Avenatti’s purported client, and the Montgomery County woman...

Thanks, ASLR. I hadn't heard of that one. Wow, is this guy turning out to be a slimebag!
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: wili on September 24, 2018, 09:40:18 PM


As for:
Quote
Rasor recalled that Judge had told her ashamedly of an incident that involved him and other boys taking turns having sex with a drunk woman. Rasor said that Judge seemed to regard it as fully consensual. She said that Judge did not name others involved in the incident, and she has no knowledge that Kavanaugh participated. But Rasor was disturbed by the story and noted that it undercut Judge’s protestations about the sexual innocence of Georgetown Prep.

Judge’s lawyer says he “categorically denies” Rasor’s claim.

But Rasor isn’t alone. Another woman, who asked to remain anonymous, also disputed Judge’s claims about the culture at Georgetown Prep. She said that it was common for male students to “get a female student blind drunk” on a mixture of grain alcohol and Hawaiian Punch that they called “jungle juice” and then try to take advantage of her. “It was disgusting,” she said. “They treated women like meat.”

Sooo, this was the company Kav was keeping. Really nice bunch of guys!
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: SteveMDFP on September 24, 2018, 09:50:26 PM
Perhaps you should try posting articles was more credible and less biased sites.

The Daily Beast appears to be bipartisan, and has received notable awards:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Daily_Beast (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Daily_Beast)

The cited report appears to draw chiefly from the Mongomery County Sentinel:
UPDATED: SUPREME COURT NOMINEE KAVANAUGH DEFENDS HIMSELF AGAINST ACCUSERS
https://mont.thesentinel.com/2018/09/24/supreme-court-nominee-kavanaugh-faces-more-allegations/ (https://mont.thesentinel.com/2018/09/24/supreme-court-nominee-kavanaugh-faces-more-allegations/)

"Government investigators confirmed Monday they’re aware of a potential second sexual assault complaint in the county against former Georgetown Prep student and Supreme Court nominee Kavanaugh.

While investigators weren’t specific and spoke on background, they said they are looking at allegations made against Kavanaugh during his senior year in high school after an anonymous witness voluntarily came forward to speak with them this weekend.

This would potentially bring the number to four women accusing Kavanaugh of wrongdoing"

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 24, 2018, 10:06:03 PM
Note the following:

1). Donnie ABSOLUTELY wants Kavanaugh, even if it costs him the House.  As long as he doesn’t lose the Senate .... he thinks he can survive, because he thinks he can get the required 1/3 of the Senate to NOT oust him.  But he needs Kavanaugh because there WILL be issues going to Supreme Court.

2). Donnie can’t go TOO batshit crazy before the elections in November ... but he has to get STARTED SOON because come end of January ..... AND he loses the House ... he won’t have as much latitude, so he may fire Rosenstein on Thursday.  Either way .... as I have been saying for many months ... Rosenstein’s days are numbered.  And Sessions are numbered as well.  Trump HAS to stop or “bury” the investigation.  If I were a good FBI investigator, I would have already prepared for this ... and we may, in the future, have another deepthroat or two.

3). The key period to watch will be after the election but BEFORE the next Congress is seated near the end of January.  I expect Trump to turn “hyper agressive” and get things in place (whether by hook or crook) before the next Congress is seated (assuming that the Dem’s win the House ... which is NOT a slam dunk by any means).



Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 24, 2018, 10:26:03 PM
In two days, we should know a lot more about the 3rd accuser:

Title: "Kavanaugh tells Senate he won't withdraw"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/24/trump-kavanaugh-allegations-totally-political-837684

Extract: "Michael Avenatti, the lawyer for Stormy Daniels, alluded to a third Kavanaugh accuser in posts on Twitter on Sunday night. So far, Avenatti has offered no details on these new accusations, but said he will release details about the woman in the next 48 hours.

Avenatti, who has been publishing on Twitter the details of his discussions with the Judiciary Committee, said his clients is no longer a government employee but that she still holds a security clearance.

“She’s had multiple security clearances over the years, including public trust and secret security clearance,” he said. Avenatti would not discuss any more specifics of his client’s allegations."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 25, 2018, 04:22:05 PM
Where there's smoke there's fire:

Title: "Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh's Yale roommate says he believes second accuser"

https://abc7news.com/4330055/

Extract: "Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh's roommate from Yale says he believes the second woman accusing Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 25, 2018, 04:34:43 PM
In my opinion, the Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee should hire Michael Avenatti to question Kavanaugh on Thursday, in order to better expose his pattern of predatory behavior:

Title: "Press: Judge Kavanaugh must withdraw"

https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/408182-press-judge-kavanaugh-must-withdraw

Extract: "There’s only one reasonable option left: To save the reputation of the Supreme Court and to spare the Republican Party any further embarrassment, Kavanaugh should withdraw his nomination. At this point, with more women coming forward every day, even holding another hearing on his nomination would be a farce."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 25, 2018, 05:04:54 PM
No later than tomorrow, Avenatti should reveal the name of his client (the 3rd accuser):

Title: "Michael Avenatti Warns Trump, Kavanaugh: ‘Be Very, Very Careful’ About What You Do Next"

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/michael-avenatti-brett-kavanaugh-trump-accuser_us_5ba9bf39e4b0181540dff92b

Extract: "On Monday night, Stormy Daniels’ lawyer told CNN’s Chris Cuomo that the woman was “both” a witness and a victim of Kavanaugh’s …

Avenatti leveled accusations at Kavanaugh in a tweet on Sunday that showed what appeared to be a screenshot of an email sent to the chief counsel for nominations to the Senate Judiciary Committee. In the email, he claimed to have “significant evidence” that Kavanaugh and a friend from high school participated in “targeting” women at house parties with “alcohol/drugs.”"
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 25, 2018, 05:26:36 PM
There is a lot of focus on whether Collins will sell out the #MeToo movement (and other law-abiding citizens):

Title: "Kavanaugh’s fate rests with Sen. Collins"

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/408193-kavanaughs-fate-rests-with-sen-collins

Extract: "Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), a prominent moderate voice and one of the Senate’s most conscientious members, is poised to make or break Brett Kavanaugh’s chance at becoming a Supreme Court justice.

A big reason for that is several Senate colleagues are waiting to see what Collins will do before announcing their positions.

Senate Democratic Leader Charles Schumer (N.Y.) has asked centrist members of his caucus to keep their powder dry on Kavanaugh until they know where all Republicans stand.
And GOP senators will need to take a position if Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) follows through with Monday’s promise to eventually hold an up-or-down vote on the floor.

Senate Republican aides think that Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) will likely vote the same way as Collins, who thus far has played a more vocal role in the debate over Kavanaugh.
“We’re talking about a jury of one: Susan Collins,” said a senior GOP aide.

“When you look at Murkowski and even Flake, no one lets Collins get to the left of them, so she’s going to be the lodestar here,” the source added, referring Sen. Jeff Flake (Ariz.), who is seen as another GOP swing vote."

&

Even if Susan Collins, sells out, it is still possible that neither Murkowski nor Flake will:

Title: "Murkowski: FBI investigation into Kavanaugh would ‘clear up all the questions’"

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/408258-murkowski-fbi-investigation-into-kavanaugh-would-clear-up-all-the-questions

Extract: " Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) on Tuesday said an FBI investigation into sexual misconduct allegations against Brett Kavanaugh would "clear up all the questions" surrounding the Supreme Court nominee.

“It would sure clear up all the questions, wouldn’t it?” she said when asked if there should be a further FBI investigation into the nominee's past."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 25, 2018, 05:40:24 PM
It is alarming how Kavanaugh's recollections do not match those of his classmates:

Title: "The Most Alarming Thing About Brett Kavanaugh’s Interview on Fox News"

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/09/brett-kavanaugh-fox-news-interview-sexual-assault.html

Extract: "This image of a nearly irreproachable Kavanaugh clashes with Judge’s account of their youthful foibles; in his book Wasted: Tales of a Gen X Drunk, Judge described a “Bart O’Kavanaugh” vomiting in cars and passing out during benders. Clearly aware of this contradiction, Kavanaugh admitted that, “Yes, there were parties” and that “people might’ve had too many beers on occasion.” But in the interview on Fox News, he denied drinking to the point of blacking out and said, with respect to the allegations of sexual assault, “I’ve never, never done anything like this.”

In his hearings and in Monday’s interview, there was a consistent pattern in what Kavanaugh remembered and what he forgot. He doesn’t remember seeing Alex Kozinski, his friend and mentor for more than a quarter-century, engage in sexual harassment—even though multiple victims have alleged that Kozinski’s inappropriate behavior was frequent and relentless.

He does know that he himself never committed sexual abuse, and that any claims to the contrary are “smears, pure and simple.” Kavanaugh doesn’t remember receiving sexually explicit emails that Kozinski blasted out to his associates on a regular basis, and apparently can’t be bothered to search his records for them."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 25, 2018, 06:33:59 PM
Again, why does Kavanaugh remember the past differently than his classmates?

Title: "Kavanaugh claims he had a sterling reputation at Yale, is immediately shot down by ex-roommate"

https://thinkprogress.org/kavanaugh-fox-news-interview-yale-reputation-ramirez-james-roche-assault-allegation-party-e17377f2f203/

Extract: "During his interview on Fox News that aired Monday evening, Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh cited his college reputation as evidence he’s been falsely accused by former Yale classmate Deborah Ramirez, who told the New Yorker Kavanaugh once thrust his genitals into her face at a party.

“The women I knew in college and the men I knew in college say it’s inconceivable that I could have done such a thing,” he said.

But around the same time Kavanaugh was making that claim on Fox News, his former Yale roommate, James Roche, told the Bay Area ABC affiliate that he believes Ramirez."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 25, 2018, 07:25:21 PM
Why doesn't Kavanaugh take a polygraph test?

Title: "Third Kavanaugh accuser, a former US Mint employee, '100 percent credible,' Avenatti says"

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/09/24/brett-kavanaugh-avenatti-third-accuser-emerge-48-hours/1416699002/

Extract: "… Avenatti told reporters he has been hired by a former employee of both the State Department and the U.S. Mint who has information of a sexual nature about Kavanaugh and his high school friend Mark Judge.

“It will relate to how they behaved at countless house parties,’’ Avenatti said.

Avenatti also told reporters the woman, whom he did not name, has multiple security clearances and will “literally risk her life’’ by coming forward. He called her “100 percent credible,’’ saying she has multiple witnesses to corroborate her story and would be willing to take a polygraph if Kavanaugh does as well."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on September 25, 2018, 07:25:56 PM

Kavanaugh doesn’t remember receiving sexually explicit emails that Kozinski blasted out to his associates on a regular basis, and apparently can’t be bothered to search his records for them."


Are you claiming that email was available at Yale in the late 1960's, or that a high school friend was regularly boasting of his teen aged sexual conquests decades after they occurred? Neither seems entirely plausible.


As someone who experienced the "sexual revolution" as it played out in Southern California, it's sounding very much as though Kavanaugh and his immediate peers were locked into a moral climate that would have found a home in the mid 1950's. Back when sex was dirty, but the air was clean. 8)
Terry

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 25, 2018, 07:45:59 PM
Apparently, as a US Supreme Court nominee, Kavaaugh feels entitled to make as many false statements to Fox News as he feels like:

Title: "Kavanaugh says it was legal for seniors to drink when he was in high school, but Maryland's drinking age was raised to 21 when he was 17"

https://www.businessinsider.com/maryland-drinking-age-could-brett-kavanaugh-legally-drink-high-school-2018-9

Extract: "As the backdrop to these allegations, Kavanaugh has been portrayed as an eager participant in a hard-partying culture at his elite all-boys high school, Georgetown Preparatory, and as a college student at Yale University, where he was a member of a fraternity and an all-male secret society, Truth and Courage, nicknamed "Tit and Clit."

Both of Kavanaugh's accusers say he was intoxicated when the alleged misconduct occurred in high school and college.

At one point during the Monday interview, Kavanaugh addressed Georgetown Prep's drinking culture.

"Yes, there were parties," Kavanaugh told Fox host Martha MacCallum. "And the drinking age was 18, and yes, the seniors were legal and had beer there. And yes, people might have had too many beers on occasion and people generally in high school — I think all of us have probably done things we look back on in high school and regret or cringe a bit."

But Maryland's drinking age for beer and wine was legally changed from 18 to 21 in July 1982, during the summer before Kavanaugh's senior year. It had already been 21 for hard liquor.

Residents who had turned 18 by that time were grandfathered in and allowed to drink. Kavanaugh was 17 at the time."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 25, 2018, 07:47:41 PM
Terry,
Alex Kozinski (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Kozinski), per Wikipedia:
Quote
(born July 23, 1950)[1] is a former United States Circuit Judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, where he served from 1985 until announcing his retirement on December 18, 2017, after a growing number of allegations of improper sexual conduct and abusive practices toward law clerks.[2] Kozinski was chief judge of that court from November 2007 to December 1, 2014.
(Read on in the wiki article for some details of his sordid reputation.)
Brett Kavanaugh (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brett_Kavanaugh) clerked for him.  Some people find in incongruous that he didn't notice anything.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 25, 2018, 07:51:15 PM

Kavanaugh doesn’t remember receiving sexually explicit emails that Kozinski blasted out to his associates on a regular basis, and apparently can’t be bothered to search his records for them."


Are you claiming that email was available at Yale in the late 1960's, or that a high school friend was regularly boasting of his teen aged sexual conquests decades after they occurred? Neither seems entirely plausible.


As someone who experienced the "sexual revolution" as it played out in Southern California, it's sounding very much as though Kavanaugh and his immediate peers were locked into a moral climate that would have found a home in the mid 1950's. Back when sex was dirty, but the air was clean. 8)
Terry

I am not sure why you are talking about emails in the 1960's, when Kavanaugh was 17-years old in 1982, and emails were in common use by that time (indeed I was using emails in 1982):

Title: "Email"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Email

Extract: "Invented by Ray Tomlinson, email first entered limited use in the 1960s and by the mid-1970s had taken the form now recognized as email."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on September 25, 2018, 08:00:17 PM
Terry,
Alex Kozinski (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Kozinski), per Wikipedia:
Quote
(born July 23, 1950)[1] is a former United States Circuit Judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, where he served from 1985 until announcing his retirement on December 18, 2017, after a growing number of allegations of improper sexual conduct and abusive practices toward law clerks.[2] Kozinski was chief judge of that court from November 2007 to December 1, 2014.
(Read on in the wiki article for some details of his sordid reputation.)
Brett Kavanaugh (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brett_Kavanaugh) clerked for him.  Some people find in incongruous that he didn't notice anything.


I'd also mentally added ~20 years to their ages.
Must learn to drink my coffee prior to posting. :-[


(They still sound like a bunch of kids who hadn't yet discovered the joys of America's favorite indoor sport.)
Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 25, 2018, 08:02:10 PM
Apparently, as a US Supreme Court nominee, Kavaaugh feels entitled to make as many false statements to Fox News as he feels like:

Title: "Kavanaugh says it was legal for seniors to drink when he was in high school, but Maryland's drinking age was raised to 21 when he was 17"
...
Actually, I don't see the lie, just legalese:  presuming Mr. Kavanaugh was in high school for three or four years (some schools had HS start in 10th grade), for most of the time he was in HS, older seniors (that is, 18-year-olds) could legally drink alcohol.  He didn't, apparently, say, "When I was a senior, I could legally drink."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 25, 2018, 08:08:35 PM
Kavanaugh's virginity defense doesn't pass the sniff test :o:

Title: "Brett Kavanaugh Claims Past Virginity As Defense Against Sexual Assault Claims"
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/brett-kavanaugh-virgin-high-school_us_5ba96904e4b0375f8f9fcf9a

Extract: "It should go without saying that virginity does not mean a person is not capable of drunkenly groping another person against her will.

A second woman, Deborah Ramirez, has accused Kavanaugh of exposing himself and thrusting his penis at her face when they were both college students at Yale during the 1983-1984 school year. Ramirez says that they were both intoxicated at that party and that she isn’t entirely sure of her memories.

The New Yorker, which first published Ramirez’s account on Sunday, was not able to independently confirm if Kavanaugh was at the Yale party she described, but interviewed several of Ramirez’s classmates, who recalled hearing about the alleged incident in vague terms.

Kavanaugh has also pointed to a letter signed by 65 women he has known for decades attesting that the judge has always treated them with “decency and respect.” Again, this letter is not evidence that he did not commit sexual assault. A person can treat hundreds of women well and still mistreat some other women.

A New York Times report on Monday that examined a copy of Georgetown Preparatory School’s 1983 yearbook shed new light on Kavanaugh’s behavior in high school.

The phrase “Renate alumni,” printed under a group photo of nine football players, including Kavanaugh, is a reference to Renate Schroeder Dolphin, then a student at a nearby Catholic girls’ school, the Times reported.

The football players used the phrase as a way to brag about their alleged sexual conquests, two of Kavanaugh’s classmates told the Times.

Dolphin was one of 65 women who say they knew Kavanaugh in high school and signed a letter defending his character following Blasey’s accusations. Dolphin told the Times she was unaware at the time of the apparent reference to her in the yearbook.

“I learned about these yearbook pages only a few days ago,” Dolphin said in a statement to the paper. “I don’t know what ‘Renate Alumnus’ actually means. I can’t begin to comprehend what goes through the minds of 17-year-old boys who write such things, but the insinuation is horrible, hurtful and simply untrue. I pray their daughters are never treated this way. I will have no further comment.”"
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 25, 2018, 08:11:38 PM
Quote
Are you claiming that email was available at Yale in the late 1960's, or that a high school friend was regularly boasting of his teen aged sexual conquests decades after they occurred? Neither seems entirely plausible.

My father said the email wasn't very good in the 1960s. ;)  Never let the truth get in the way of a good storyline though.....
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 25, 2018, 08:13:44 PM
Apparently, as a US Supreme Court nominee, Kavaaugh feels entitled to make as many false statements to Fox News as he feels like:

Title: "Kavanaugh says it was legal for seniors to drink when he was in high school, but Maryland's drinking age was raised to 21 when he was 17"
...
Actually, I don't see the lie, just legalese:  presuming Mr. Kavanaugh was in high school for three or four years (some schools had HS start in 10th grade), for most of the time he was in HS, older seniors (that is, 18-year-olds) could legally drink alcohol.  He didn't, apparently, say, "When I was a senior, I could legally drink."

I guess that as Kavanaugh's Fox News interview was about his alleged sexual assault on Ford, it is germane to point out that at that time he was 17 years old and the legal drinking age at that time was 21 in Maryland.  So whether you think of it as a lie or not, it was at least a misdirection.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 25, 2018, 08:24:35 PM
Brett Kavanaugh's Body Language Says It All, According To An Expert


https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/brett-kavanaugh-apos-body-language-133700859.html

Those of you that saw the Kamala Harris questioning of Brett Kavanaugh have already seen a sample of how Brett Kavanaugh's body language is when he lies.  Here is an article that describes it in more depth, and in addition to the Kamala Harris clip ..... gives other clips as well.

But do pay special attention to the Kamala Harris clip.  I would NOT want to play poker with her.  She nailed Kavanaugh and he was looking for ANYWAY OUT. 
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 25, 2018, 09:00:17 PM
Quote
So whether you think of it as a lie or not, it was at least a misdirection.
Definitely!  I used the term "legalese".  Others would say, "Squirrel!"  I previously wrote "He's slimy".

Does anybody want to save the Republican Party?  What are they thinking/smoking/shooting?
[Yeah, I hear our friends who say, "Who needs Republicans when you have Corporate Democrats."]
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 25, 2018, 10:20:21 PM
Things are looking bright for the Democrats in the sunshine state:

Title: "September 25, 2018 - Nelson Takes Lead In Critical Florida U.S. Senate Race, Quinnipiac"

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2572

Title: "In the Florida U.S. Senate race, which could be critical to control of the Senate this year, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson moves into a 53 - 46 percent likely voter lead over Gov. Rick Scott, the Republican challenger, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

This compares to a 49 - 49 percent dead heat in a September 5 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 26, 2018, 12:05:36 AM
I repeat that I think the Senate Democrats should hire Michael Avenatti to question Kavanaugh on Thursday:

Title: "GOP hires female attorney to question Kavanaugh accuser"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/25/white-house-lashes-out-feinstein-838942

Extract: "Senate Republicans have hired a female attorney to use as a questioner of Christine Blasey Ford at Thursday's high-stakes hearing on a sexual assault allegation against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh but are declining to release her name."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 26, 2018, 01:04:30 AM

Even if Kavanaugh get past the Senate Judiciary Committee, he would still need to be approved by a majority of the Senate after that:

Title: "Kavanaugh vote scheduled for Friday morning"

https://www.axios.com/kavanaugh-vote-reschedule-christine-blasey-ford-sexual-assault-a4e54b3b-3045-488c-9dfc-29ec280fd20f.html

Extract: "The Senate Judiciary Committee has scheduled the vote for Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh for Friday morning.

Why it matters: The key vote for Kavanaugh will be held a day after testimonies from both Kavanaugh and Christine Blasey Ford, who has accused Kavanaugh of sexual assault, are heard by the committee. Thursday's hearings could swing essential votes from senators on Trump's second Supreme Court nominee."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: budmantis on September 26, 2018, 07:02:58 AM
Things are looking bright for the Democrats in the sunshine state:

Title: "September 25, 2018 - Nelson Takes Lead In Critical Florida U.S. Senate Race, Quinnipiac"

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2572

Title: "In the Florida U.S. Senate race, which could be critical to control of the Senate this year, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson moves into a 53 - 46 percent likely voter lead over Gov. Rick Scott, the Republican challenger, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

This compares to a 49 - 49 percent dead heat in a September 5 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll."


That, despite all the money that Rick Scott has spent. Nelson claims Scott is outspending him 5 to 1. I don't usually donate to political candidates, but I did donate to Nelson's campaign.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 26, 2018, 01:28:58 PM
Things are looking bright for the Democrats in the sunshine state:

Title: "September 25, 2018 - Nelson Takes Lead In Critical Florida U.S. Senate Race, Quinnipiac"

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2572

Title: "In the Florida U.S. Senate race, which could be critical to control of the Senate this year, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson moves into a 53 - 46 percent likely voter lead over Gov. Rick Scott, the Republican challenger, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

This compares to a 49 - 49 percent dead heat in a September 5 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll."

I would not put too much faith in one poll.  Eight polls have been conducted this past month regarding this race and the results are 3 favoring Nelson, 2 favoring Scott, and 3 tied.  I would still call this a dead heat.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 26, 2018, 02:05:39 PM
Quote
I would not put too much faith in one poll.  Eight polls have been conducted this past month regarding this race and the results are 3 favoring Nelson, 2 favoring Scott, and 3 tied.  I would still call this a dead heat.
I agree. I've done canvassing and other GOTV (get out the vote) activities this year, but I do this most even-yeared summers and autumns.  I was lured into canvassing, when a graduate student in New Zealand, to support the Values Party (remember them?) and have been involved since then.

Quote
The Values Party was a New Zealand political party. It is considered the world's first national-level environmentalist party, pre-dating the use of " Green " as a political label. It was established in May 1972 at Victoria University of Wellington.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 26, 2018, 06:10:35 PM
If the GOP stick with Kavanaugh after these revelations, I hope that they get punished by midterm voters:

Title: "New Kavanaugh accuser Julie Swetnick details parties where girls allegedly were drugged and raped"

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/26/michael-avenatti-identifies-kavanaugh-accuser-as-julie-swetnick.html

Extract: "A third accuser of Supreme Court pick Brett Kavanaugh on Wednesday publicly identified herself and alleged that Kavanaugh and others while in high school spiked the drinks of girls at parties to make it easier for them to be gang raped.

Julie Swetnick's stunning claims, made on the eve of a Senate committee hearing for Kavanaugh and another accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, came in an affidavit to a Senate staffer that was released by her lawyer.

Swetnick, in the affidavit posted on Twitter by her lawyer Michael Avenatti, claims that she saw Kavanaugh, as a high school student in Maryland in the early 1980s, "drink excessively at many" house parties in suburban Maryland.

She said he engaged in "abusive and physically agressive behavior toward girls."
During the years of 1981 and 1982 she said she learned of efforts by Kavanaugh, his friend Mark Judge and others "to spike the drinks of girls at house parties I attended with grain alcohol and/or drugs so as to cause girls to lose inhibitions and their ability to say 'No.' "

Certain girls were targeted by those boys, and "it was usually a girl that was especially vulnerable because she was alone at the party or shy."

Swetnick said these efforts by Kavanaugh and his buddy Judge were done so the girls "could then be 'gang raped' in a side room or bedroom by a 'train' of numerous boys."

"I have a firm recollection of seeing boys lined up outside rooms at many of these parties waiting for their 'turn' with a girl inside the room. These boys included Mark Judge and Brett Kavanaugh," Swetnick said.

She also said in her affidavit sent to the Senate Judiciary Committee that in approximately 1982 "I became the victim of one of these 'gang' or 'train' rapes where Mark Judge and Brett Kavanaugh were present."

"Shortly after the incident, I shared what had transpired with at least two other people," Swetnick said.

"During the incident, I was incapacitated without my consent and unable to fight off the boys raping me, I believe I was drugged using Quaaludes or something similar placed in what I was drinking."

She says that she shared the story of her own alleged gang rape, which she says took place around 1982, with "at least two other people" shortly after it occurred."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 26, 2018, 06:16:03 PM
Same song ..... just another verse. Five new changes, ALL in the direction of the Democrat's in the Cook Political Report.

House Rating Changes: Five More Races Move Towards Democrats

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-five-more-races-move-towards-democrats

Quote
Rating Changes:

CO-06: Mike Coffman (R) - Toss Up to Lean D ←
NY-02: Peter King (R) - Solid R to Likely R ←
NC-13: Ted Budd (R) - Lean R to Toss Up ←
PA-01: Brian Fitzpatrick (R) - Lean R to Toss Up ←
TX-31: John Carter (R) - Likely R to Lean R ←

Perhaps Donnie could make some MORE obnoxious remarks about WOMEN, LATINO's, GAY's, ASIAN's, BLACK's, etc.... etc.... etc.  I'm sure that will help the Republican's cause immensely.

Maybe Donnie could go ahead and pardon Bill Cosby .... THAT would certainly help the polling numbers.   ;)

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 26, 2018, 06:18:25 PM
I still think that the Democrats should hire Michael Avenatti to ask questions at Thursday's hearing:

Title: "All-male Senate Judiciary Republicans tap Arizona prosecutor Rachel Mitchell for Thursday’s Kavanaugh hearing"

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/9/26/17905270/who-is-rachel-mitchell-maricopa-county-prosecutor

Extract: "Senate Judiciary Committee Republicans know it could be a bad look for the 11 white Republican men on the committee to question Palo Alto University professor Christine Blasey Ford about her sexual assault allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. So they’ve tapped a woman, Arizona prosecutor Rachel Mitchell, to do it.

Both Ford’s and Ramirez’s lawyers have pushed for an FBI investigation into their clients’ claims, arguing that it’s the best way to ensure a thorough, fair process. Republicans have said it’s not necessary — they’re going to hear from Ford and Kavanaugh on Thursday, no other witnesses, and that’s that."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 26, 2018, 06:28:30 PM
If the GOP continues to support Kavanaugh, essentially they are telling US voters that America is now a kleptocracy and no longer a democracy:

Feinstein: Kavanaugh misled about grand jury secrecy in Vince Foster probe

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/26/kavanaugh-confirmation-starr-vince-foster-842530

Extract: "The top Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee is accusing Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh of misleading the Senate about his handling of grand jury secrets while working for Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr two decades ago.

Kavanaugh's nomination has run into trouble in the last two weeks over allegations of sexual assault by two women, but Democrats have also complained that he misled them during his Senate testimony on a number of issues, including his handling of warrantless wiretapping and detainee policy in the George W. Bush administration.

Sen. Dianne Feinstein told POLITICO that she has now identified another area in which she believes Kavanaugh was not truthful in communications with senators. She said that by directing officials to speak to reporters during the investigation of President Bill Clinton, Kavanaugh may have violated grand jury secrecy laws — even though he told her and Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) he never broke those rules."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 26, 2018, 06:38:58 PM
In a kleptocracy government officials are free to lie publically, without fear of criminal investigation, as is the case where the GOP are preventing the FBI from re-opening their investigation of Kavanaugh for the Senate Judicary Committee hearings.

Title: "Read Kavanaugh's prepared testimony"

https://www.axios.com/brett-kavanaugh-opening-remarks-thursday-testimony-58cf6c74-e744-415d-a62f-e46dc3c6b74b.html
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 26, 2018, 06:47:30 PM
The GOP will likely limit documentation of Kavanaugh's sexual assaults to whatever Blasey Ford can table before the kangaroo court that Grassley will Chair on Thursday:

Title: "Four Witnesses Swear Christine Blasey Ford Told Them About Alleged Assault Before Brett Kavanaugh’s Nomination"

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/09/christine-blasey-ford-husband-friends-sworn-statements-about-brett-kavanaugh-accusation.html

Extract: "Christine Blasey Ford has provided four sworn statements from people who say they had discussed her alleged assault before Brett Kavanaugh was nominated to the Supreme Court.

The declarations are from three of her friends as well as her husband, Russell Ford. Russell says that Christine had told him that her assailant was Kavanaugh before his nomination but did not mention him specifically again until his name came up as a potential Supreme Court nominee for the seat that would eventually go to Neil Gorsuch. “I remember Christine saying she was afraid the President might nominate Kavanaugh,” Russell Ford wrote.""
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 26, 2018, 08:42:54 PM
Budmantis:

Good job on donating to Nelson’s campaign.  Since you are in one of thee most important states this cycle, I encourage you to do ANYTHING you can do to help get out the vote ... whether that is volunteering or simply talking to as many neighbors as you can.

I don’t have to remind residents of Florida how important EACH and every vote is.

1). Healthcare (pre existing conditions)
2). Tax breaks for the middle class instead of the Scott 1%
3). Preventing the ravages of global warming in Florida, instead of ignoring it like Scott does

This is the most important vote of our lifetime .... If you have neighbors that would like a ride to the polls, take them.  Every vote counts ....
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 27, 2018, 04:57:53 AM
The charges against Kavanaugh keep coming:

Title: "Kavanaugh denies two additional accusations to Senate Judiciary Committee"

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/politics/brett-kavanaugh-allegations/index.html


&

Title: "Kavanaugh questioned about Rhode Island sexual assault allegation"

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/408666-kavanaugh-questioned-about-rhode-island-sexual-assault-allegation

Extract: "Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh was questioned during a phone call with Judiciary Committee staff about an allegation that he sexually assaulted a woman in Rhode Island in the mid-1980s.

Democratic Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse's (R.I.) office received a phone call on Tuesday morning "making allegations concerning a rape on a boat in August of 1985," according to transcripts of a call between committee staff and Kavanaugh released on Wednesday.

The allegation, given to Whitehouse's staff and read on the call with Kavanaugh, claims that in August 1985 a "close acquaintance" of a Rhode Island constituent "was sexually assaulted by two heavily inebriated men she referred to at the time as Brett and Mark.""
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on September 27, 2018, 08:09:15 AM
The charges against Kavanaugh keep coming:


If any/all of these turn out to be true we have to be VERY upset the all the previous FBI investigations they did on Kavanaugh didn't find ANY. Are they that incompetent ??  How do you get to be Judge on the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia and one step away from the supreme court without any of this being found out??
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 27, 2018, 10:35:26 AM
Jeff Flake's vote on Friday could block Kavanaugh's confirmation from moving past the Senate Judiciary Committee; but his linked speech suggests that he is thinking about running for president in 2020, and he is trying to thread the needle between stopping Trumpism while remaining true to traditional GOP values:

Title: "Kavanaugh hearing: Sen. Jeff Flake says, 'We have lit a match'"

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/09/26/sen-jeff-flake-asks-senators-have-open-mind-kavanaugh-hearing/1432931002/

Extract: "Sen. Jeff Flake – one of the potential swing votes on Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court – called on his colleagues Wednesday to have an open mind about the allegations against Kavanaugh and to recognize that both Kavanaugh and his accuser are human beings."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 27, 2018, 01:57:10 PM
The charges against Kavanaugh keep coming:


If any/all of these turn out to be true we have to be VERY upset the all the previous FBI investigations they did on Kavanaugh didn't find ANY. Are they that incompetent ??  How do you get to be Judge on the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia and one step away from the supreme court without any of this being found out??

I suspect that the investigation was quite thorough.  None of this existed before his nomination, so there was nothing to find.  If you listen to the allegations, they all involved alcohol at school parties.  It may well be that each person is remembering the events as they believe they happened.  Uncovering the truth will be a very difficult endeavor.  Hence, the authorities are unwilling to undertake such an endeavor.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 27, 2018, 02:53:17 PM
The charges against Kavanaugh keep coming:


If any/all of these turn out to be true we have to be VERY upset the all the previous FBI investigations they did on Kavanaugh didn't find ANY. Are they that incompetent ??  How do you get to be Judge on the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia and one step away from the supreme court without any of this being found out??

Team Mitch McConnell kept the Supreme Court seat that Merrick Garland should have filled open for over a year; certainly that sets a precedent that the seat that Kavanaugh has been nominated to fill could easily remain unfilled until a proper investigation of the facts have been conducted.  If not, a future Democratic controlled congress may well need to impeach Kavanaugh if a proper investigation provides sufficient evidence to convict him.

Title: "Merrick Garland"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merrick_Garland

Extract: "On March 16, 2016, President Barack Obama nominated Garland to serve as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court, to fill the vacancy created by the death of Antonin Scalia. The Senate refused to hold a hearing or vote on this nomination made during the last year of Obama's presidency, with the Republican majority insisting that the next elected President should fill the vacancy. Senate Republicans' refusal to consider the nomination was highly controversial. Garland's nomination lasted 293 days and expired on January 3, 2017, with the end of the 114th Congress."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 27, 2018, 02:59:23 PM
Quote
I suspect that the investigation was quite thorough.  None of this existed before his nomination, so there was nothing to find.

NO ..... it means that since this was a Supreme Court Nomination, this has had 24x7 national TV exposure.  EVERYONE knows that someone has been nominated.

Were ANY of the current accusers questioned in Kavanaugh's earlier FBI investigations?  I suspect NOT.  The FBI would have had to have stumbled upon one of the 4 accusers.  And remember ..... Kavanaugh went to an ALL BOY'S SCHOOL.  The women WEREN'T "schoolmates".  They would have had to have questioned ALL THE GIRLS SCHOOLS.

Quote
If you listen to the allegations, they all involved alcohol at school parties.  It may well be that each person is remembering the events as they believe they happened.


Just because there was alcohol at the parties .... DOESN'T mean that everyone was smashed.  I had a couple of friends who went to some REAL BASHES when I was in high school, and they didn't drink or smoke AT ALL.  But they went to the parties and watched all of us idiots who DID smoke and drink.  My CLOSE group of friends (about 5 of us) .... one of the guys hated drinking and smoking.  After high school he was my roommate for a year before I went off to college.  HE NEVER SMOKED OR DRANK.

Quote
Uncovering the truth will be a very difficult endeavor.  Hence, the authorities are unwilling to undertake such an endeavor

Uncovering the truth isn't always easy, but that doesn't mean that you don't try.  Law enforcement does it ALL THE TIME.  THAT is why they have investigators ... TO INVESTIGATE.  That is why in the John Tower FBI investigation during his nomination, they RE-OPENED the investigation.  That is why during the Clarence Thomas confirmation hearings, they RE-OPENED the FBI investigation.

During the above 2 confirmation hearings THE PRESIDENT ASKED THE FBI TO RE-OPEN THEIR BACKGROUND INVESTIGATION.  THAT .... is NORMAL when you want to make a good effort at getting to the TRUTH.

The authorities (in this case the FBI) are NOT UNWILLING TO UNDERTAKE SUCH AN ENDEAVOR. THE FBI HAS TO BE ASKED BY THE WHITE HOUSE TO DO SO.  The White House is the "client" in the FBI background investigation.  They are MORE THAN WILLING TO DO SO..... just as they did in the Clarence Thomas confirmation AND the John Tower investigation decades ago.

That pesky TRUTH .... have I ever told you that it NEVER GOES AWAY ;)

But you have to LOOK FOR IT ...... It doesn't generally jump up into your lap and pronounce itself as being HERE. 
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 27, 2018, 03:10:39 PM
As I have said all along .... Donnie is going to do ANYTHING he can do to jam Kavanaugh through.  If Kavanaugh doesn't make it .... it won't be because Donnie didn't try everything he could to jam him through.  Trump needs him for some upcoming SCOTUS issues that Trump is going to go through.

And IF Kavanaugh makes it through ..... Kavanugh is beholding to Trump .... and Kavanugh WILL pay Trump back in spades.

IF, however, Kavanaugh doesn't make it through the confirmation vote ..... then some other things come into play, especially if the Dem's were to somehow win the House AND the Senate.  If Kavanugh doesn't get through ..... there may not be enough time to get anyone else through.  AND .... IF (I know .... BIG IF) the Dem's were to win the Senate ..... then you can forget the Republicans getting ANYONE THROUGH THE CONFIRMATION PROCESS IN THE NEXT 2 YEARS.  That would be the "Mitch payback".

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 27, 2018, 03:47:09 PM
Per Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball ..... TODAY ..... this is where the House stands:

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2018-house/

Democrat's:
181 SOLID Dem
10 LIKELY Dem
17 LEAN Dem

Republicans:

144 SOLID Rep
33 LIKELY Rep
22 LEAN Rep

Tossups:  28

So Sabato has 208 Dem's, 199 Republicans, 28 TOSSUPS.

Of course .... you can see that the Dem's have three advantages (right now):

1)  Leading by about 9 seats (208 - 199) in those races that are NOT tossups

2)  Democrat's have many more "SOLID" seats (181 to 144)

3)  Republicans have more seats "at risk" ..... those that are either "lean" or "likely" .... but NOT SOLID by a count of 55 Republicans and 27 Democrat's. 

It's still EARLY ...... 40+ days to go, and ANYTHING can happen.  But I would much prefer leading at halftime by 2 touchdowns as opposed to trailing by 2 touchdowns (don't even MENTION the Stanford game  ;)).   But like the Stanford game ..... anything CAN happen ..... so the Dem's should not take anything for granted.

The Dem's still have a "shot" at taking the Senate .... but they need to have a really good 40 days ..... AND Donnie needs to hold more press conferences and keep talking about women.  ;)   


Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 29, 2018, 01:35:35 AM
Avenatti did a number on Cohen by cooperating with the New York State officials; just wait and see what he does by cooperating with the FBI regarding both Brett Kavanaugh and Mark Judge:

Title: "Avenatti says he will 'thoroughly enjoy embarrassing' Senate GOP for advancing Kavanaugh's nomination"

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/408991-avenatti-my-client-and-i-are-going-to-thoroughly-enjoy-embarrassing-judiciary

Extract: "Michael Avenatti, the attorney representing Julie Swetnick in her sexual misconduct allegations against Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh, issued a stern warning on Friday to Republicans on the Senate Judiciary Committee.

“Warning - If the committee advances the nomination this afternoon, my client and I are going to thoroughly enjoy embarrassing @ChuckGrassley @LindseyGrahamSC @tedcruz and all of the other GOP members on the committee this weekend when her story is told and is deemed credible,” he tweeted Friday afternoon.

“And if you think I am bluffing, you have not been paying attention the last 7 months. I don’t traffic in nonsense. I traffic in facts and evidence,” he added."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 29, 2018, 06:46:38 PM
The FBI will most likely investigate whether Kavanaugh's 1982 calendar entry support's Dr Ford's allegations:

Title: "Kavanaugh 1982 calendar entry could be examined in FBI investigation"

https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/409062-kavanaugh-1982-calendar-entry-could-be-examined-in-fbi-investigation

Extract: "Though Kavanaugh's calendar makes no reference to Ford, Democrats have said the nominee's calendar notes could corroborate Ford's allegations.

During Kavanaugh’s testimony before the Senate panel Thursday, he said he regularly noted his “small get-togethers” with his friends.

“Go to Timmy’s for skis with Judge, Tom, P.J., Bernie and Squi,” the entry from Kavanaugh, then 17, reads.

“Timmy,” according to Kavanaugh's testimony, refers to his Georgetown Prep classmate Tim Gaudette. The other two people named are Mark Judge and Patrick “P.J.” Smyth, Kavanaugh noted. “Squi” refers to his friend Chris Garrett.

According to the Post, two of the people who Ford has claimed were in attendance the night she said she was attacked are listed on Kavanaugh’s July 1 calendar entry.

Ford testified that at least four boys, one whose name she could not remember, and one other girl were at the gathering.

The girl, Ford’s friend Leland Keyser, was her classmate at the private girls school Holton-Arms."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 29, 2018, 07:14:17 PM
regarding both Brett Kavanaugh and Mark Judge:

Off topic belongs in Trump president thread imo.
This topic is already motivating the Democratic base, so I provide the following post in both threads:

The linked Washington Post article from 1990, supports Swetnick's assertion in that during the 1980's seven headmasters of privates schools in the Georgetown Prep were aware of a large number of unsupervised parties where "excessive-drinking and sexual license are common."  The FBI should talk to these headmasters about what incidences were reported to them to motivate them to write a joint letter to the parents of all relevant students:

Title: "AREA HEADMASTERS WARN PARENTS OF STUDENT PARTIES"
By Carlos Sanchez, February 4, 1990

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/local/1990/02/04/area-headmasters-warn-parents-of-student-parties/06927fdb-a9fb-4a1c-89bb-8b004e21825e/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.deb9f32ee976

Extract: "The headmasters at seven of the Washington area's most prestigious private schools have written a letter to the parents of all students warning them that students are regularly throwing large, unsupervised parties where "excessive drinking and sexual license are common."

In what the headmasters called a rare joint effort, the letters, which were mailed Thursday, asked parents to step up supervision of their children to prevent them from attending or throwing weekend parties that are open to almost anyone and where alcohol is easily available.

The letter was written jointly "to give it more impact," said Malcolm Coates, headmaster at Landon School in Bethesda. "The fact that seven schools decided it was enough of a problem to address it is significant."

Individual schools have confronted the issue before. At the beginning of the school year, for example, Georgetown Preparatory School in Rockville held a conference with parents to discuss the problem of unsupervised parties and similar activities."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 29, 2018, 07:25:56 PM
Per the linked WP article if the FBI's 'limited' week-long probe of Kavanaugh uncovers evidence that Kavanaugh lied to the Senate, then the FBI is free to open criminal investigation(s) 'in which law enforcement could use the full extent of its legal powers' unlimited by the White House:

Title: "FBI again drawn into partisan controversy as Republicans consent to 'limited,' additional Kavanaugh background check:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/fbi-again-drawn-into-partisan-controversy-as-republicans-consent-to-limited-additional-kavanaugh-background-check/2018/09/28/48e7a3c8-c34c-11e8-b338-a3289f6cb742_story.html?utm_term=.fcca83dfdcb0

Extract: "If investigators uncover evidence that Kavanaugh lied to lawmakers during hearings or on his background-check forms, that could spark a criminal investigation in which law enforcement could use the full extent of its legal powers.”
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 29, 2018, 07:35:20 PM
It looks like the GOP will pay a price in the midterms for their miscalculations w.r.t. Kavanaugh

Title: "A majority of voters say they won't re-elect senators if they confirm Kavanaugh"

https://www.axios.com/kavanaugh-vote-2018-midterms-poll-3db8f6c6-c637-41a8-bbc5-a27bbad3abc3.html

Extract: "A majority of people wouldn’t vote to re-elect their senators if they vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh, according to a new Change Research poll.

By the numbers: After the hearings, 51% of people said they are less likely re-elect their senators. And people found Dr. Christine Blasey Ford more believable (50%) and credible (48%) than Kavanaugh (44% for both.) 50% of people said they will view the Supreme Court as less credible if the Senate confirms Kavanaugh."
&

Title: "The miscalculation haunting Trump, Kavanaugh"

https://www.axios.com/trump-kavanaugh-fbi-investigation-2b04645c-5446-4879-b8e8-146e51677e9b.html

Extract: "… Republicans had an epic failure of imagination. They were forced reluctantly and publicly into what should have been a fairly easy-to-anticipate moderate compromise: agree to a vote after a quick FBI probe. Instead of looking hungry for truth, Kavanaugh heads into the week looking fearful of findings."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on September 29, 2018, 09:48:30 PM
By 1990, when WaPo wrote of the headmasters concerns, Kavanaugh would have been 25 years old, and Swetnick would have been out of high school for 10 years.

Julie apparently had a thing for young boys - hope the FBI doesn't dig too far in that direction. In 1982 she would have been 19, and Kavanaugh 16 years of age. Her father says she never made it to college, but why would she have been hanging with high school kids and attending at least 10 of their high school parties?
Women can be charged with statutory rape.

This isn't the first time she's accused others of sexual misconduct, and she's lost at least one job for being a little too sexually aggressive herself.


https://www.oregonlive.com/silicon-forest/index.ssf/2018/09/julie_swetnick_one_of_kavanaug.html

Perhaps her choice in lawyering up is to be expected.

Trial by TV is a horrible concept for everyone involved. Peoples lives are being ruined while we're treating it as though it's a sporting event.
I'm outa here
Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 30, 2018, 01:04:49 AM
Hopefully the FBI will talk to Julie Swetnick and not blow-off her serious allegation about the rape culture in and around Georgetown Prep in the 1980's:

Title: "The rape culture of the 1980s, explained by Sixteen Candles"

https://www.vox.com/culture/2018/9/27/17906644/sixteen-candles-rape-culture-1980s-brett-kavanaugh

Extract: "In the 1980s, “rape” meant an attack from a stranger in a dark alley, not something that acquaintances did to each other at house parties where everyone knows each other. In 1982, it would have been difficult for women like Swetnick and Christine Blasey Ford to find the language to describe what had happened to them.

“I completely reject that notion,” said French on Twitter when presented with the argument that the way our culture talked about rape in the 1980s was different than it is today. “I was in high school in the 1980s. Gang rape was viewed as a horrible crime then, too.”

It’s true that gang rape was considered a horrible crime in the 1980s — but in the abstract, when thought of as a crime perpetrated by a group of strangers on an innocent, sober, virginal good-girl victim in a dark alley. But it’s simply not the case that the mainstream culture at large in the ’80s had the same ideas we do today about sexual assault — especially when it’s perpetrated by people who know each other, at parties, around alcohol.

We can tell that it’s not the case because there are many beloved, iconic movies made in the 1980s that built entire comedic subplots over what we can better recognize today as rape scenes. And in those movies, rape wasn’t a horrible crime. It was supposed to be funny."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 30, 2018, 02:05:45 AM
It appears that the White House is directing the FBI's investigations from the shadows.  This is a national scandal all by itself, as it amount to obstruction of justice by the WH (Trump):

Title: "White House limits scope of the FBI's investigation into the allegations against Brett Kavanaugh"

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/white-house-limits-scope-fbi-s-investigation-allegations-against-brett-n915061

Extract: "The White House is limiting the scope of the FBI’s investigation into the sexual misconduct allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, multiple people briefed on the matter told NBC News.

While the FBI will examine the allegations of Christine Blasey Ford and Deborah Ramirez, the bureau has not been permitted to investigate the claims of Julie Swetnick, who has accused Kavanaugh of engaging in sexual misconduct at parties while he was a student at Georgetown Preparatory School in the 1980s, those people familiar with the investigation told NBC News. A White House official confirmed that Swetnick's claims will not be pursued as part of the reopened background investigation into Kavanaugh.

The limited scope seems to be at odds with what some members of the Senate judiciary seemed to expect when they agreed to give the FBI as much as a week to investigate allegations against Kavanaugh, a federal judge who grew up in the Washington DC area and attended an elite all-boys high school before going on to Yale.

President Donald Trump said on Saturday that the FBI has "free reign" in the investigation. "They’re going to do whatever they have to do," he said. "Whatever it is they do, they’ll be doing — things that we never even thought of. And hopefully at the conclusion everything will be fine.""

See also:

Title: "White House Directs FBI to Interview First Two Kavanaugh Accusers, But Not the Third"

https://www.wsj.com/articles/white-house-directs-fbi-to-interview-first-two-kavanaugh-accusers-but-not-the-third-1538256505
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 30, 2018, 02:19:00 AM
Trump cannot stop himself from politicizing the FBI's investigation of Kavanaugh, and maybe at odd with what some Senators are expecting before they vote:

Title: "White House limits scope of Kavanaugh FBI investigation to sexual assault claims"

https://www.axios.com/white-house-brett-kavanaugh-investigation-sexual-assault-464ade88-e74b-4074-a656-8323a3c504ad.html

Extract: "The White House is limiting the scope of the week-long FBI investigation into Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh to only the sexual assault claims made by Dr. Christine Blasey Ford and Deborah Ramirez, reports NBC News.

Why it matters: The White House has provided the bureau with a list of witnesses they can interview, and Julie Swetnick, Kavanaugh's third accuser, is not included. The restraints on the investigation may be at odds with what some on the Senate Judiciary Committee expected to be included in the investigation. Kavanaugh has vehemently denied the claims made against him from all three women."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 30, 2018, 11:41:54 AM
I think that the GOP is walking a tightrope on the Kavanaugh FBI investigation, and they had better get it right or face voter wrath in the midterms:

Title: "The Memo: GOP risks disaster with Kavanaugh, midterms"

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/409074-the-memo-gop-risks-disaster-with-kavanaugh-midterms

Extract: "The question for Republicans, as they press forward with Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, is whether they risk alienating female voters for years — and just in time for this year’s midterms.
Progressives are certain the GOP will end up on the losing side, pointing to intense outrage over the likely confirmation of a judge to the Supreme Court despite compelling testimony from Christine Blasey Ford, who says he sexually assaulted her decades ago.
“I think the Republicans are going to lose women for a generation,” said Karine Jean-Pierre, a senior adviser and national spokeswoman for MoveOn, a progressive group."

See also:

Title: "Trump: No limits on FBI's investigation into allegations against Brett Kavanaugh"

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/white-house-limits-scope-fbi-s-investigation-allegations-against-brett-n915061

Extract: ""I want them to interview whoever they deem appropriate, at their discretion," Trump tweeted in response to an NBC News report citing multiple people familiar with the process who said the White House was limiting the scope of the reopened background investigation of Kavanaugh."

&
Title: "Grassley asks FBI to probe apparent false allegations against Kavanaugh"

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/409107-judiciary-committee-refers-apparent-false-allegations-against-kavanaugh-for
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 30, 2018, 06:32:00 PM
On a serious note, imv Kavanaugh's senate confirmation will be denied if it goes to a vote. Slim chance he may even recuse himself beforehand. If he goes that way this will happen before Friday 5th Oct. Remember you heard it here first.

"Lurk - the New Bellingcat"
Getting things right is our business model.

I suspect that will happen only if the FBI finds some credible evidence to support Ford’s allegations.  If their investigation supports Kavanaugh’s claims or they find nothing, then I would expect a confirmation.  The Democrats have bet everything on an FBI investigation.  If it comes up blank, they will be out of options.  On a side note, the latest poll in Cal, shows Feinstein’s lead down to 11, and her support at less than half.  This is a big drop, since before the allegations of Dr. Ford were presented.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 30, 2018, 07:44:54 PM
Trump's tweet on the freedom of the FBI investigation of Kavanaugh is fake news:

Title: "Limits to FBI's Kavanaugh investigation have not changed, despite Trump's comments"

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/white-house-limits-scope-fbi-s-investigation-allegations-against-brett-n915061

Extract: "The FBI has received no new instructions from the White House about how to proceed with its weeklong investigation of sexual misconduct allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, a senior U.S. official and another source familiar with the matter tell NBC News.

According to the sources, the president’s Saturday night tweet saying he wants the FBI to interview whoever agents deem appropriate has not changed the limits imposed by the White House counsel’s office on the FBI investigation — including a specific witness list that does not include Julie Swetnick, who has accused Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct in high school.

Also not on the list, the sources say, are former classmates who have contradicted Kavanaugh’s account of his college alcohol consumption, instead describing him as a frequent, heavy drinker. The FBI is also not authorized to interview high school classmates who could shed light on what some people have called untruths in Kavanaugh’s Senate Judiciary Committee testimony about alleged sexual references in his high school yearbook.

Separately, a White House official made clear that the White House is the client in this process. This is not an FBI criminal investigation — it is a background investigation in which the FBI is acting on behalf of the White House. Procedurally, the White House does not allow the FBI to investigate as it sees fit, the official acknowledged; the White House sets the parameters.

Instead of investigating Swetnick's claims, the White House counsel’s office has given the FBI a list of witnesses they are permitted to interview, according to several people who discussed the parameters on the condition of anonymity. They characterized the White House instructions as a significant constraint on the FBI investigation and caution that such a limited scope, while not unusual in normal circumstances, may make it difficult to pursue additional leads in a case in which a Supreme Court nominee has been accused of sexual assault.

The limited scope seems to be at odds with what some members of the Senate judiciary seemed to expect when they agreed to give the FBI as much as a week to investigate allegations against Kavanaugh, a federal judge who grew up in the Washington DC area and attended an elite all-boys high school before going on to Yale."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 30, 2018, 08:35:48 PM
The linked op/ed piece is written by an expert on Maryland State law, and in his opinion, many of the alleged offenses committed by Kavanaugh against Ford, have no statute of limitations, and thus Kananaugh could be prosecuted by the Maryland State's AG office if sufficient evidence is found:

Title: "Kavanaugh’s accuser deserves a fair criminal investigation", By Thiru Vignarajah, September 19

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/kavanaughs-accuser-deserves-a-fair-criminal-investigation/2018/09/19/c0605ec4-bc1a-11e8-97f6-0cbdd4d9270e_story.html?utm_term=.9cf2c2a7e521

Extract: "Thiru Vignarajah, a Democrat, previously served as an assistant U.S. attorney for the District of Maryland from 2009-2011 and as deputy attorney general of Maryland from 2015-2016. He was a law clerk to Supreme Court Justice Stephen G. Breyer from 2006-2007.

Some of the possible alleged offenses in this case, such as false imprisonment, are misdemeanors whose statutes of limitations ran out long ago. But other potential charges are not necessarily barred, even today, because Maryland has not imposed time limits on certain felony crimes.

For example, attempting a sexual assault with the aid of another person counts as attempted first-degree rape, just as restricting a victim’s breathing to stop her from shouting for help could fairly qualify as first-degree assault. Both are felonies with no statute of limitations in Maryland. Likewise, under Maryland law, using force to move a victim a short distance, even from one room to another, can amount to kidnapping, a crime that similarly has no limitations period. There are examples across the country where convictions for kidnapping have been upheld in cases where rapists took the victim just to a separate room to commit the crime."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on September 30, 2018, 09:14:15 PM
This has all the appearances of a sham.  Should we expect anything less from a con man?  I think not.  Now we’ll see what type out outrage is generated from the public, especially the public in Alaska, Maine, and Arizona.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on September 30, 2018, 11:25:13 PM

I suspect that will happen only if the FBI finds some credible evidence to support Ford’s allegations.  If their investigation supports Kavanaugh’s claims or they find nothing, then I would expect a confirmation.  The Democrats have bet everything on an FBI investigation.  If it comes up blank, they will be out of options.  On a side note, the latest poll in Cal, shows Feinstein’s lead down to 11, and her support at less than half.  This is a big drop, since before the allegations of Dr. Ford were presented.
That's a huge loss of support in a very Blue State.
If Ford vs Kavanaugh isn't playing well in California, what does that do to Democratic hopes in much needed Purple States?


FWIW I'm ignoring the possibility of the FBI digging up anything new that will sway opinions in the next few days. Feinstein has had Ford's claims for some time & if more corroboration was out there we would have heard it by now.
Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 01, 2018, 12:12:59 AM
Avenatti will take Swetnick's facts to the US voters if the FBI declines to interview her:

Title: "Avenatti Vows to ‘Take the Facts’ to the American People if FBI’s Kavanaugh Probe Doesn’t Include his Client"

https://www.thedailybeast.com/avenatti-vows-to-take-the-facts-to-the-american-people-if-fbis-kavanaugh-probe-doesnt-include-his-client

Extract: "Michael Avenatti blasted as “outrageous” an apparent move by the White House to limit the scope of the FBI investigation into sexual assault allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and not include a woman he is representing.

“Trump has now determined that he and he alone will be the sole arbiter of whether a woman’s claims of sexual assault and misogyny are credible,” Avenatti said in a tweet Saturday evening. “Why even have an FBI investigation? I thought it was their job to make this determination. He and Kavanaugh are afraid of the truth.”

The response came hours after Avenatti, the high profile lawyer who is weighing a 2020 presidential run, told the The Daily Beast during a stop in New Hampshire that his client Julie Swetnick was “anxious to sit down with the FBI to tell her story.”

In an interview during the brief stop in New Hampshire, Avenatti vowed to “take the facts” to the public if Swetnick’s allegations aren’t included in the FBI investigation.
He also touted that President Donald Trump and top Republicans in the Senate view him as a “considerable threat.”"
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: sidd on October 01, 2018, 05:25:45 AM
"Avenatti, the high profile lawyer who is weighing a 2020 presidential run..."

Holy shit. I have posted related articles in the 2020 candidates thread.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2200.msg174897.html#msg174897

sidd
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 01, 2018, 10:29:26 AM
Trump has no Plan B, so if the Democrats win, they win big (bigly):

Title: "Brett Kavanaugh is "too big to fail""

https://www.axios.com/brett-kavanaugh-white-house-replacement-discussion-4f24b604-4af4-48b8-92a2-928024e09815.html

Extract: "For the White House, it's Brett Kavanaugh or bust. They have no Plan B and there's not even discussion of one, according to five sources with direct knowledge of the sensitive internal White House talks.

The bottom line: As of this weekend, sources close to Kavanaugh seemed optimistic the limited weeklong FBI investigation would give the three wavering Republican senators — Jeff Flake, Collins and Murkowski — the confidence they need to vote yes. But a week is an eternity in this political environment. And if Kavanaugh's nomination collapses, there are no easy alternatives."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 01, 2018, 11:42:56 AM
Remember that if the FBI probe demonstrates that Kavanaugh lied under oath to the Senate Judiciary Committee, then his job interview is over and he will be voted down (because Flake, Collins and/or Murkowski will no longer have uncertainty to hide behind).  Note also that the Senate floor vote is not part of a federal criminal trial that needs to prove sexual assault beyond a shadow of a doubt, it and has a much lower bar for what constitutes corroborating evidence.

So let review some facts:

1. In 1982 Dr Ford was "dating Kavanaugh's friend' Chris Garrett, so he clearly knew her.

2. Kavanaugh's 1982 calendar has him attending a small party with his friends (Judge, P.J. Smyth, and Garrett or "Squi") on July 1st, which is the likely date of the alleged sexual assault (during a pre-party "pre-loading" gathering before Garrett was perhaps to arrive).

3. Dr Ford says she saw Mark Judge working at a Safeway "6 to 8 weeks" after the assault, which would put the assault in early July as Kavanaugh's calendar corroborated.

4. Mark Judge's girlfriend says that Judge (Kavanaugh's alleged co-conspirator) spoke about assaulting women at parties while drunk.  But the White House (read as: Don McGahn) has forbidden the FBI from talking to her.

5. Many of Kavanaugh's friends have made statements about his aggressive drinking habits and two other named women (Ramirez and Swetnick [who says see saw Kavanaugh groping women at parties]) confirm his aggressive sexual behavior at parties toward women while drunk. But the White House has forbidden the FBI from speaking to the list of witnesses that Ramirez provided to corroborated her story and forbidden the FBI from talking to Swetnick.

6. The FBI has already give Dr Ford a lie detector test and found her believable, but they have not stated any intent to give a lie detector test to Kavanaugh.  Polygraph test may not provide criminal evidence in Federal Courts but they admissible for job interviews before the Judiciary Committee.

7. Kavanaugh stated under oath that Leland Ingham Keyser and P.J. Smyth had "refuted" what Dr Ford said happened inside the bedroom; however, they were allegedly not in the room; so this is a lie under oath.

8. Dr Ford had discussed the alleged assault with multiple people (therapist, husband, girlfriends, classmates [Cristina King Miranda], etc) since the alleged assault prior to knowing that Kavanaugh was nominated to the SCOTUS.  But the WH has forbidden the FBI from talking to many/most of these people.

9. Kavanaugh lied about the meaning of entries in his high school yearbook related to both drinking (including "boofing") and sexual behavior (Renate alumnius).

10. Kavanaugh lied under oath about blacking out while drinking (which a number of witnesses have confirmed publically).

By Friday we will see what the FBI probe documents and what Avenatti makes public if the FBI do not interview Swetnick.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 01, 2018, 11:55:10 AM
Here is a link to the letter that Senator Feinstein sent to both Don McGahn and Christopher Wray, asking for a copy of the written instructions to the FBI regarding their probe of Kavanaugh.  I note that it may be the case that Trump's tweets about the nature of the FBI investigation cannot overrule McGahn's written instructions:

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1046534460089552898?s=12
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 01, 2018, 06:41:28 PM
The FBI's investigation should note that Kavanaugh repeatedly lied (under oath) about his drinking in both high school and college.  If Kavanaugh is not confirmed and the Democrats win control of both the House and the Senate in the midterms, the Supreme Court could remain in a 4-4 balance until at least 2021:

Title: "Brett Kavanaugh wrongly claimed he could drink legally in Maryland in high school"

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kavanaugh-drink-beer-legally-in-maryland-claim-false-2018-09-28/

Extract: "Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh has repeatedly said that he was legally allowed to consume beer as a prep school senior in Maryland. In fact, he was never legal in high school because the state's drinking age increased to 21 at the end of his junior year, while he was still 17."

&

Title: "Yale classmate to tell FBI of Kavanuagh's 'violent drunken' behavior"

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/kavanaugh-classmate-tell-fbi-nominee-s-violent-drunken-behavior-college-n915326

Extract: "Charles Ludington, a classmate of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh at Yale University, will provide information to the FBI on Monday, he confirmed to NBC News.

News of Ludington's involvement was first reported by The Washington Post, which said he planned to give a statement to the FBI at its field office in Raleigh, North Carolina, "detailing violent drunken behavior by Kavanaugh in college.""
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 01, 2018, 06:59:48 PM
Talk about con jobs, the FBI's probe only responses to requests from Don McGahn, not Trump nor the Senate majority:

Title: "Trump wants 'comprehensive' but 'quick' FBI investigation on Kavanaugh"

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/409268-trump-fbi-should-do-what-they-have-to-do-in-kavanaugh-investigation

Extract: "President Trump said Monday that he wants the FBI to conduct a "comprehensive investigation" into the sexual misconduct allegations against his Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh, but also that it should be handled quickly.

Trump also called for the FBI to conduct its investigation within the parameters of what the Senate GOP majority had set out.

"I think the FBI should do what they have to do to get to the answer," Trump told reporters during a press conference announcing a new trade deal with Mexico and Canada.

"I want them to do a very comprehensive investigation, whatever that means according to the senators, and the Republicans, and the Republican majority, I want them to do that," the president added."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: wili on October 01, 2018, 07:44:30 PM
Newly released transcribed and redacted phone interview with BK and Senate Judiciary Committee in which a new (to me) anonymous accuser is mentioned, "Jane Doe." (p.5, line 8 , her full letter is a few pages later...harrowing reading! )

https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/09.26.18%20BMK%20Interview%20Transcript%20(Redacted).pdf

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 01, 2018, 08:41:55 PM
The FBI's investigation should note that Kavanaugh repeatedly lied (under oath) about his drinking in both high school and college.  If Kavanaugh is not confirmed and the Democrats win control of both the House and the Senate in the midterms, the Supreme Court could remain in a 4-4 balance until at least 2021:

Title: "Brett Kavanaugh wrongly claimed he could drink legally in Maryland in high school"

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kavanaugh-drink-beer-legally-in-maryland-claim-false-2018-09-28/

Extract: "Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh has repeatedly said that he was legally allowed to consume beer as a prep school senior in Maryland. In fact, he was never legal in high school because the state's drinking age increased to 21 at the end of his junior year, while he was still 17."


No, Kavanaugh repeatedly stated that the seniors were allowed to drink legally (he was a junior).  While Maryland increased the drinking age to 21, they grandfathered in those who had already attained the age of 18, namely the seniors to which Kavanaugh referred.  Please try to adhere to the facts and not National Enquire type rhetoric.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 01, 2018, 10:51:45 PM
The link provides a link to minutes of a private senate judiciary committee interview with Kanavaugh on Sept 26 2018.  The discussion on page thirteen covers an accusation from a letter sent to Kamala Harris that in high school Kavanaugh and his friend raped a girl in the back seat of his car.  Hopefully, the FBI will investigate this allegation:

https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/09.26.18%20BMK%20Interview%20Transcript%20(Redacted).pdf
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 02, 2018, 01:26:30 AM
The FBI's investigation should note that Kavanaugh repeatedly lied (under oath) about his drinking in both high school and college.  If Kavanaugh is not confirmed and the Democrats win control of both the House and the Senate in the midterms, the Supreme Court could remain in a 4-4 balance until at least 2021:

Title: "Brett Kavanaugh wrongly claimed he could drink legally in Maryland in high school"

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kavanaugh-drink-beer-legally-in-maryland-claim-false-2018-09-28/

Extract: "Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh has repeatedly said that he was legally allowed to consume beer as a prep school senior in Maryland. In fact, he was never legal in high school because the state's drinking age increased to 21 at the end of his junior year, while he was still 17."


No, Kavanaugh repeatedly stated that the seniors were allowed to drink legally (he was a junior).  While Maryland increased the drinking age to 21, they grandfathered in those who had already attained the age of 18, namely the seniors to which Kavanaugh referred.  Please try to adhere to the facts and not National Enquire type rhetoric.

At a minimum Kavanaugh was lying by omission:

Title: "Kavanaugh Lied About Maryland’s Drinking Age Numerous Times While Testifying"

https://mavenroundtable.io/theintellectualist/news/kavanaugh-lied-about-maryland-s-drinking-age-numerous-times-while-testifying-C4zr5GjsKkCU15AUDGgr_w/

Extract: "“Yes we drank beer, my friends and I, boys and girls. Yes, we drank beer. I liked beer. I still like beer,” he said. “The drinking age as I noted was 18, so the seniors were legal. Senior year in high school, people were legal to drink.”"

Edit: At worst it is a direct lie because he said under oath that: "Senior year in high school, people were legal to drink."  But when he was a senior it was not legal for him to drink, but he did anyway.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 02, 2018, 03:47:15 AM
The FBI's investigation should note that Kavanaugh repeatedly lied (under oath) about his drinking in both high school and college.  If Kavanaugh is not confirmed and the Democrats win control of both the House and the Senate in the midterms, the Supreme Court could remain in a 4-4 balance until at least 2021:

Title: "Brett Kavanaugh wrongly claimed he could drink legally in Maryland in high school"

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kavanaugh-drink-beer-legally-in-maryland-claim-false-2018-09-28/

Extract: "Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh has repeatedly said that he was legally allowed to consume beer as a prep school senior in Maryland. In fact, he was never legal in high school because the state's drinking age increased to 21 at the end of his junior year, while he was still 17."


No, Kavanaugh repeatedly stated that the seniors were allowed to drink legally (he was a junior).  While Maryland increased the drinking age to 21, they grandfathered in those who had already attained the age of 18, namely the seniors to which Kavanaugh referred.  Please try to adhere to the facts and not National Enquire type rhetoric.

At a minimum Kavanaugh was lying by omission:

Title: "Kavanaugh Lied About Maryland’s Drinking Age Numerous Times While Testifying"

https://mavenroundtable.io/theintellectualist/news/kavanaugh-lied-about-maryland-s-drinking-age-numerous-times-while-testifying-C4zr5GjsKkCU15AUDGgr_w/

Extract: "“Yes we drank beer, my friends and I, boys and girls. Yes, we drank beer. I liked beer. I still like beer,” he said. “The drinking age as I noted was 18, so the seniors were legal. Senior year in high school, people were legal to drink.”"

Edit: At worst it is a direct lie because he said under oath that: "Senior year in high school, people were legal to drink."  But when he was a senior it was not legal for him to drink, but he did anyway.

During the time in question, Kavanaugh was a junior.  That fact was repeated several times.  It does not take a genius to figure out that the seniors were a year older.  That omission is hardly a lie.  You are stretching thinner and thinner.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: SteveMDFP on October 02, 2018, 04:31:35 AM

During the time in question, Kavanaugh was a junior.  That fact was repeated several times.  It does not take a genius to figure out that the seniors were a year older.  That omission is hardly a lie.  You are stretching thinner and thinner.

I just listened to Kav's testimony for the third or fourth time.  No, he said that when he was in high school, it was legal for seniors to drink.  This implies it was legal for him to drink when he was a senior.  False. Pure obfuscation.  He didn't have a legal drink in Maryland until he was 21.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 02, 2018, 07:55:23 AM
The tide is REALLY starting to run against Kavanaugh. 
Where have you seen anything that shows that trend?
Ah....."mostly lurking" is mostly lurking around FOX.... moistly, too.

Only way to see both sides is to watch both sides. Don't know how this will end but we'll get the answer very soon in Nov.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 02, 2018, 09:58:08 AM
Question:  The FBI did 5-6 background investigations on Kav each step up he has gone. I understand they could miss a one time event like the Ford one that happened in high school. How the heck could they miss EVERYTHING that's coming out now??  Drinking problem (violence?), multiple sexual assault including in collage, gang rape,abuse of all sorts.

Is the FBI totally incompetent? If this stuff turns out to be true heads should roll at the FBI.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 02, 2018, 10:39:07 AM
Question:  The FBI did 5-6 background investigations on Kav each step up he has gone. I understand they could miss a one time event like the Ford one that happened in high school. How the heck could they miss EVERYTHING that's coming out now??  Drinking problem (violence?), multiple sexual assault including in collage, gang rape,abuse of all sorts.

Is the FBI totally incompetent? If this stuff turns out to be true heads should roll at the FBI.

It mentioned in the senate doc ref'd by wili, the initial FBI Investigations only went back to 1992. I think answers your question well. All current accusations pre-date 1992.



If that is the case it's still incompetence. So now we have a situation where he was an angel after 1992 and a complete drunk violent sexual predator before that. Amazing.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on October 02, 2018, 11:46:08 AM
Perhaps this is not the correct thread - but


Nothing in this procedure is designed to get at the truth. Both sides are hoping that public opinion will win the day.
The polls, however flawed, are the only source we have that purports to measure public opinion. 538 is an aggregation of polls and every side has referenced their charts at one time or another.


On September 12, Ford's accusations were publicly aired. On that date the Republicans held a 9.2% advantage over the Democrats - today the Republicans hold an 8.4 lead.
On September 12 among likely voters, Trump's disapproval numbers were 13.4% ahead of his approvals - today the number is 9.5%.


While Kavanaugh's possible sexual indiscretions as a teen have driven most other political discussion from the airwaves, the Democrats have dropped .8% in popularity and Trump's approvals have increased by a whopping 3.8%.


How much longer can Democrats afford to push on an issue that is not breaking their way?


I'd love to see the Republicans crushed in a Blue Tsunami this November. We can use an "October Surprise" - but focusing the media on BS stories about groping a cheerleader through her clothing and a bathing suit may not be message that Americans are willing to coalesce behind.


If the same amount of ink and airtime was spent explaining how electing Democrats will get us back on track to fight Global Warming, the polls might begin to sway in our direction.


We're running out of time.
Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 02, 2018, 12:22:43 PM
Perhaps this is not the correct thread - but

Terry

This thread has been hijacked for this subject but does have a direct connection

I agree that for now it seems this isn't hurting the GOP at all- maybe the opposite (other people here have a different "blue wave view")

In the end it will be decided how this turns out. Real concrete evidence against Kav will force him out and will hurt the GOP badly.  A good turnout for Kav (concrete evidence supporting his claims) and the Dems will bleed this Nov. Anything in between (inconclusive but he is voted in anyway) and it's a hard call but I would say slight advantage to the GOP candidates.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 02, 2018, 01:37:05 PM
Perhaps this is not the correct thread - but


Nothing in this procedure is designed to get at the truth. Both sides are hoping that public opinion will win the day.
The polls, however flawed, are the only source we have that purports to measure public opinion. 538 is an aggregation of polls and every side has referenced their charts at one time or another.


On September 12, Ford's accusations were publicly aired. On that date the Republicans held a 9.2% advantage over the Democrats - today the Republicans hold an 8.4 lead.
On September 12 among likely voters, Trump's disapproval numbers were 13.4% ahead of his approvals - today the number is 9.5%.


While Kavanaugh's possible sexual indiscretions as a teen have driven most other political discussion from the airwaves, the Democrats have dropped .8% in popularity and Trump's approvals have increased by a whopping 3.8%.


How much longer can Democrats afford to push on an issue that is not breaking their way?


I'd love to see the Republicans crushed in a Blue Tsunami this November. We can use an "October Surprise" - but focusing the media on BS stories about groping a cheerleader through her clothing and a bathing suit may not be message that Americans are willing to coalesce behind.


If the same amount of ink and airtime was spent explaining how electing Democrats will get us back on track to fight Global Warming, the polls might begin to sway in our direction.


We're running out of time.
Terry

Over the past week, the Democrats advantage has fallen to above 7.5%, which is about what the average for the past several months has been.  The slight uptick to 9 appears to be short-lived.
 Trump's numbers also show a short-term anomaly, when his unfavorability spiked to 13.  His current 8% disapproval over approval seems to be more the trend.  The pundits seem to think that the Democrats need a generic 8% advantage to retake the House.  That is still possible, and 538 gives them a 75% chance of doing so.  The possibility of a Senate takeover appear to be shrinking.  538 has the Republicans with an almost 75% chance of retaining the Senate, but the latest polls show that may be an understatement.  The most recent ND poll shows Heitkamp trailing Cramer by 10%.  The only other poll conducted since spring had her trailing by 4%.  Not looking good for her.  NJ is getting interesting also.  May thought that Menendez would weather the storm after the mistrial in his corruption case, but the polls are suggesting otherwise.  Polls conducted over the summer show his lead ranging between 2 and 6%.  If the Republicans take ND and hold TX, they only need one of NJ, FL, MO, AZ, NV, IN, or TN to hold the Senate.  I think 538 is being overly optimistic about the Democrats chances in the Senate (they rate FL as >60% Democrat, while the result polls show a dead heat). 
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Jim Pettit on October 02, 2018, 01:54:11 PM
Nothing in this procedure is designed to get at the truth. Both sides are hoping that public opinion will win the day... On September 12, Ford's accusations were publicly aired. On that date the Republicans held a 9.2% advantage over the Democrats - today the Republicans hold an 8.4 lead. On September 12 among likely voters, Trump's disapproval numbers were 13.4% ahead of his approvals - today the number is 9.5%.
Meh. Anyone familiar with the science behind polling knows that day-to-day and week-to-week numbers fluctuate, sometimes wildly. As with temperature and Arctic sea ice, the trend is the important thing--and both Trump's and the GOP's numbers have been trending downward for months.

While Kavanaugh's possible sexual indiscretions as a teen have driven most other political discussion from the airwaves, the Democrats have dropped .8% in popularity and Trump's approvals have increased by a whopping 3.8%.
Anyone who dismisses or downplays the issue as Kavanaugh's "possible sexual indiscretions as a teen" should maybe stay out of the conversation. Rape and assault aren't "sexual indiscretions"; they're abuses of power and privilege. And Kavanaugh wasn't some dewy-faced 14-year-old with peach fuzz and raging hormones; he was an upperclassman at Yale, who knew better than to do what he did and acted as he acted. And he has lied about it. Multiple times.

I'd love to see the Republicans crushed in a Blue Tsunami this November. We can use an "October Surprise" - but focusing the media on BS stories about groping a cheerleader through her clothing and a bathing suit may not be message that Americans are willing to coalesce behind.
Again: anyone who dismisses or downplays the issue as a "BS story about groping a cheerleader through her clothing" should maybe stay out of the conversation. Americans overwhelmingly don't want or need a proven liar with a rage-drinking problem, a history of sexual assault, and spoken grudges against both Democrats in general and non-submissive women in particular handed a lifetime appointment to one of the most powerful positions in the nation. Period.

But as always, your "concern" is noted.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: SteveMDFP on October 02, 2018, 02:36:58 PM

If that is the case it's still incompetence. So now we have a situation where he was an angel after 1992 and a complete drunk violent sexual predator before that. Amazing.

All the accounts are about his behavior while drunk.  The last, I think, a bar room brawl during his college years, police were called, his name is in the report.  Started by Kavanaugh throwing his drink in someone's face.   

He would seem to have gotten his drinking under control after college.  It's quite plausible he remembers little of what he did while drunk. 

I was told once that a substantial portion of people in prison are there for crimes committed but not remembered, due to intoxication.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 02, 2018, 02:50:53 PM
Meh. Anyone familiar with the science behind polling knows that day-to-day and week-to-week numbers fluctuate, sometimes wildly. As with temperature and Arctic sea ice, the trend is the important thing--and both Trump's and the GOP's numbers have been trending downward for months.


I haven't seen that anywhere. Trump's approval has been quite steady for many months at 42-44 approval with a small short term recent dip(and recovery) with no real explanation (maybe timing of a few outlier polls)
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: SteveMDFP on October 02, 2018, 03:03:44 PM
Meh. Anyone familiar with the science behind polling knows that day-to-day and week-to-week numbers fluctuate, sometimes wildly. As with temperature and Arctic sea ice, the trend is the important thing--and both Trump's and the GOP's numbers have been trending downward for months.


I haven't seen that anywhere. Trump's approval has been quite steady for many months at 42-44 approval with a small short term recent dip(and recovery) with no real explanation (maybe timing of a few outlier polls)

Trump's approval/disapproval ratings are pretty stable, according to 538.com.  But at this stage, the important opinion polls are about the upcoming Congressional races.  There does seem to be a slow, steady  trend of improving chances for the Dems:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo)
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: RikW on October 02, 2018, 03:33:15 PM
As a non-US-person, what happens if Democrats win Senate or House, will it be difficult to pass laws?

And if democrats win both of them?
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: SteveMDFP on October 02, 2018, 03:42:24 PM
As a non-US-person, what happens if Democrats win Senate or House, will it be difficult to pass laws?

And if democrats win both of them?

Well, the worst Republican laws won't be passed.  But no, Trump has veto power for legislation.  And both houses must pass a bill for it to go to the President's desk.  And for most legislation, 1/3 of the Senate can filibuster, effectively a veto.

Still, legislative gridlock is better than being on an express train to perdition.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 02, 2018, 04:18:49 PM

Trump's approval/disapproval ratings are pretty stable, according to 538.com.  But at this stage, the important opinion polls are about the upcoming Congressional races.  There does seem to be a slow, steady  trend of improving chances for the Dems:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo)

The problem with most of these polls is that the total of both sides is not 100%. In this specific aggregate we have a total of 90% and most others are the same. Where are those other 10% going? In the current atmosphere I would say many are GOP or Trump supporters that aren't sure or don't want to be in polls.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: SteveMDFP on October 02, 2018, 05:23:20 PM

Trump's approval/disapproval ratings are pretty stable, according to 538.com.  But at this stage, the important opinion polls are about the upcoming Congressional races.  There does seem to be a slow, steady  trend of improving chances for the Dems:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo)

The problem with most of these polls is that the total of both sides is not 100%. In this specific aggregate we have a total of 90% and most others are the same. Where are those other 10% going? In the current atmosphere I would say many are GOP or Trump supporters that aren't sure or don't want to be in polls.

Reasonable possibility, yes.   But as I go about my day to day life, I'm continually shocked by the number of people who seem to have no awareness of political happenings.  I'm more surprised that the total of the polls is anywhere 90% of people having *any* opinion.

Lots of these undecided people don't vote.  Some vote out of a sense of civic obligation.  Of these unaware voters, I think many choose based on the last things they've heard.  Unfortunately for the US, the media keep playing Trumps words and tweets.  For folks who don't closely follow the news, much of what he says may seem superficially compelling.  It's a disturbing situation.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 02, 2018, 05:28:31 PM
Hopefully, the FBI probe will identify inconsistencies between Kavanaugh's sworn testimony and FBI substantiated evidence.  If so this would be a major blow to the GOP's prospects in the midterms, and it would likely mean that they cannot deliver a right-wing judge to the SCOTUS:

Title: "Kavanaugh's testimony is starting to look more and more problematic"

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/kavanaugh-s-testimony-starting-look-more-more-problematic-n915771

Extract: "Two reports last night — from NBC News and the New York Times — appear to contradict some of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh’s testimony to the Senate Judiciary Committee from last week."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 02, 2018, 05:53:12 PM
Hopefully, the FBI probe will identify inconsistencies between Kavanaugh's sworn testimony and FBI substantiated evidence.  If so this would be a major blow to the GOP's prospects in the midterms, and it would likely mean that they cannot deliver a right-wing judge to the SCOTUS:

Title: "Kavanaugh's testimony is starting to look more and more problematic"

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/kavanaugh-s-testimony-starting-look-more-more-problematic-n915771

Extract: "Two reports last night — from NBC News and the New York Times — appear to contradict some of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh’s testimony to the Senate Judiciary Committee from last week."

Hopefully, the FBI will identify the truth - whatever that is.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on October 02, 2018, 05:59:08 PM
Traitor Trump is going to be campaigning in Mississippi.  Think about that for a minute.  Trump has to campaign in one of the darkest red states in the country for the midterm election ... to save a senate seat that SHOULD be a cakewalk in any other year.  Kind of like Alabama .... and if you remember, the Democrat’s were able to win Alabama in their special election.

Mississippi is also having a special election for one of their senate seats due to the health of the current Republican holder of that seat.  So ..... there are 2 Republicans and 2 Democrats on the ballot November 6th ..... and none of them will be denoted by an “R” or a “D” on the ballot.

If one of the 4 gets more than 50% of the vote .... then he/she is the elected senator.  If none of the candidates get 50%, then there will be a runoff election on November 27th.  So it is POSSIBLE that we might not know who controls the Senate until after a November 27th runoff election in Mississippi.

To be sure ..... this is a long shot, and the Republicans are picked to win in Mississippi ... but they were picked to win in Alabama ..... and that didn’t work out for them.

This is one of several races to keep an eye on in the last 5 weeks.  If the Democrat’s can take Florida and Texas ..... ANYTHING can happen.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 02, 2018, 07:36:21 PM
Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell are about to learn what Jeff Flake is made of.  If the FBI investigation is extended on Flakes demand, then it is possible that Trump will be forced to withdraw Kavanaugh's nomination without a vote in order to avoid serious damage to the GOP in the midterms:

Title: "How Jeff Flake Is Controlling the Kavanaugh Confirmation Process"

https://www.politicususa.com/2018/10/02/how-jeff-flake-is-controlling-the-kavanaugh-confirmation-process.html

Extract: "Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona is now in charge of Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the U.S. Supreme Court, and he knows it.

Flake knows that Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell need his vote in favor of Kavanaugh. He knows that if he votes “no” then Senators Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski are likely to vote “no” also and Kavanaugh’s nomination will never be approved.

Due to Flake’s insistence, the White House made a big deal of announcing yesterday that the FBI was not to be limited in its investigation. The only restriction, according to Trump, is that he wanted it all done within one week.

And then yesterday, in an interview with John Heilemann from MSNBC, Flake once again asserted his power, implying that one week might not be long enough to get at the truth.

On Sunday night Flake was on the CBS show “60 Minutes” doing an interview along with his friend Democratic Senator Chris Coons of Delaware.

Flake, along with Coons, made very clear that if Kavanaugh were found by the FBI to have lied under oath, it would be a disqualifier and his nomination would be “over.”

In the MSNBC interview Heilemann gave evidence to Flake that there were already many documented instances where Kavanaugh had lied to the Senate. He asked the senator what he thought about that, and Flake replied: “If that’s true, then that’s a problem.”

This means that if Flake is a man of his word, Kavanaugh’s approval by the Senate is in serious doubt even before the FBI concludes its work.

But what if the FBI has not concluded its work by the end of the week? According to the MSNBC analyst, Flake has left the door open to going back to Trump and McConnell and demanding more time.

An extension for the FBI would be a great thing for Democrats but could spell disaster for Republicans.

It would provide the following significant benefits for Kavanaugh opponents:

1.   It would give the FBI more time it needs to document and substantiate all of the many allegations against Kavanaugh.
2.   It would provide additional time for more people to step forward with more accusations of lying and sexual misconduct.
3.   It would give more time to investigative journalists and the media to come up with additional scandals that would harm Kavanaugh.
4.   It would give more time for the public to get derogatory information which would make it more likely to oppose the Kavanaugh nomination."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 03, 2018, 12:44:08 AM
I hope that the FBI is not doing a slipshod job in investigating Kavanaugh:

Title: "Ford still seeking FBI interview"

https://www.axios.com/ford-still-seeking-fbi-interview-1538516421-9f6ea164-e054-417a-8908-ed78f708c746.html

Extract: "Christine Blasey Ford's lawyers wrote to the FBI today saying they still haven't been contacted by investigators and that it is "inconceivable" the bureau would not interview her as part of their investigation of Brett Kavanaugh.

Why it matters: The investigation into Ford's allegations of sexual assault reportedly may be completed as early as tomorrow with Senate votes later this week."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 03, 2018, 08:07:34 AM
At the same time as all the stuff you have written up there...  Fords testimony is being attacked for multiple perjury instances. One of her ex boyfriend has said in written statement

Quote
In a written declaration released Tuesday and obtained by Fox News, an ex-boyfriend of Christine Blasey Ford, the California professor accusing Brett Kavanaugh of sexual assault, directly contradicts her testimony under oath last week that she had never helped anyone prepare for a polygraph examination.

The former boyfriend, whose name was redacted in the declaration, also said Ford neither mentioned Kavanaugh nor said she was a victim of sexual misconduct during the time they were dating from about 1992 to 1998. He said he saw Ford helping a woman he believed was her "life-long best friend" prepare for a potential polygraph test. He added that the woman had been interviewing for jobs with the FBI and U.S. Attorney's office.

He also claimed Ford never voiced any fear of flying (even while aboard a propeller plane) and seemingly had no problem living in a small, 500 sq. ft. apartment with one door -- apparently contradicting her claims that she could not testify promptly in D.C. because she felt uncomfortable traveling on planes, as well as her suggestion that her memories of Kavanuagh's alleged assault prompted her to feel unsafe living in a closed space or one without a second front door.

Ford "never expressed a fear of closed quarters, tight spaces, or places with only one exit," the former boyfriend wrote. On Thursday, Ford testified, "I was hoping to avoid getting on an airplane. But I eventually was able to get up the gumption with the help of some friends and get on the plane." She also acknowledged regularly -- and, in her words, "unfortunately" -- traveling on planes for work and hobbies.


It seems the more one digs the more comes up. EVERYONE is lying at some level.

edit:
I also see that Feinstein is asking that the new FBI investigation not go public. Strange.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: oren on October 03, 2018, 09:28:16 AM
Thank you Lurk for sharing this "post from the past". Very interesting (seriously).
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 03, 2018, 10:59:24 AM
Thank you Lurk for sharing this "post from the past". Very interesting (seriously).

Agree 100%

As far as Ford. I don't buy into "she is a democratic plant" and it's all made up.
There is no doubt she is a #nevertrumper.  If this happened to her (or mistaken identity) she would have motive to come out and try to harm him but pretty sure she wasn't really expecting this to get so far out of hand. She was quite naive in thinking her original letter would stay private and would be enough.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 03, 2018, 05:03:22 PM
Hopefully, Jeff, Susan and Lisa do not accept a slipshod FBI investigation, and either demand an extended investigation, or vote no on Kavanaugh's comfirmation:

Title: "FBI has not contacted dozens of potential sources in Kavanaugh investigation"

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/dozens-potential-sources-information-have-not-been-contacted-fbi-kavanaugh-n916146

Extract: "More than 40 people with potential information into the sexual misconduct allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh have not been contacted by the FBI, according to multiple sources that include friends of both the nominee and his accusers.

The bureau is expected to wrap up its expanded background investigation as early as Wednesday into two allegations against Kavanaugh — one from Christine Blasey Ford and the other from Deborah Ramirez.

But sources close to the investigation, as well as a number of people who know those involved, say the FBI has not contacted dozens of potential corroborators or character witnesses."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 03, 2018, 05:40:02 PM
Attached is a redacted official statement that corroborates many of Swetnick's statements; which the FBI should investigate:
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 03, 2018, 06:21:25 PM
Wow  - 20 parties!! Swetnick only did 10 !    Way to go !
 ::)
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 03, 2018, 06:30:19 PM
Swetnick herself already walked back quite a bit of what she previously said:

Quote
“Well I saw—I saw him giving red solo cups to quite a few girls during that time frame, and there was grain punch at those parties,” Swetnick said. “I saw him around the punch—I won’t say bowls, the punch containers. I don’t know what he did, but I saw him by them.”

As for the claims about “trains” of boys lining up outside rooms to rape girls, she said she saw Kavanaugh and Judge “huddled by doors.” When asked if she was suggesting she thought Kavanaugh was involved, she answered: “I would say yes, it’s just too coincidental.” She did not offer further details to support her original claim that he was waiting for his “turn.”


Originally she said he did spike the punch and that he participated in the train gang rapes.
Now...?  Not so much.


Jeez, will this ever end?


Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 03, 2018, 07:21:30 PM
Evidence that Kavanaugh is likely the 'Bart' in Judge's book:

Title: "New York Times: Kavanaugh called himself and his friends 'loud, obnoxious drunks' in 1983 letter -- and signed it 'Bart'"

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/02/politics/brett-kavanaugh-letter/index.html

Extract: "Also of note, Kavanaugh signs the letter "Bart" -- a name which has previously come up as a possible reference to Kavanaugh in his former classmate Mark Judge's book, where he writes about "Bart O'Kavanaugh."

Kavanaugh was asked about the reference to "Bart" in Judge's book during his questioning by the Senate Judiciary Committee last week.

Sen. Patrick Leahy, a Democrat from Vermont, and Kavanaugh went back and forth about the reference, but Kavanaugh appeared to avoid directly answering the question.
"Judge Kavanaugh, I'm trying to get a straight answer from you under oath," Leahy said. He then proceeded to ask Kavanaugh if he was Bart, "yes or no?"

Kavanaugh responded: "You'd have to ask him" -- meaning Judge."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 03, 2018, 07:49:10 PM
It will be interesting to see whether the FBI maintains their integrity during their investigation of Kavanaugh, or whether a potentially Democrat-controlled house committee (with subpoena power) of Congress will be forced to investigate this matter in 2019:

Title: "“The F.B.I. Is Not Going to Be Donald Trump’s Patsy”: How the Kavanaugh Probe Could Test Christopher Wray"

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/10/how-the-kavanaugh-probe-could-test-fbi-christopher-wray

Extract: "Tasked with an investigation with an impossible deadline, in which both the White House and Senate Republicans are ready to load the dice, the F.B.I. director, a Trump appointee, is already taking steps to defend his bureau.

“I could very well see this becoming a test of Chris Wray’s integrity,” says Robert Anderson, a former F.B.I. executive assistant director. “Not because of what these interviews find or don’t find. The agents will do a great job of whatever they are allowed to do. But at the end of the week, if there are unanswered questions, will the director push to do more?”

“If the White House is directing this in a manner inconsistent with how we normally do our cases, and agents aren’t allowed to follow logical leads,” says Carlos T. Fernandez, a former top anti-terrorism official, “from what I know of Director Wray, he would be the kind of person to resign.”

Short of quitting, Wray could find himself facing a Comey moment: whether to issue a public statement characterizing the end of the investigation. Yet he seems to be savvily attempting to head off that kind of crisis, while shoring up the bureau’s credibility, and giving it more freedom to examine Kavanaugh's past. “It’s not accidental that the details of the restrictions on the F.B.I. all leaked out within 24 hours of the investigation beginning,” says Matthew Miller, a Justice Department spokesman under former attorney general Eric Holder. “After 18 months of the president attacking or undermining the F.B.I. at every turn, Trump now wants to use it as a public stamp of approval for Kavanaugh, when he won’t let it conduct a real investigation. The F.B.I. can read the political tea leaves, and they know there’s likely to be at least one house of Congress where the Democrats have subpoena power next year. They will make sure there’s a very clear written record that if this investigation wasn’t complete, it was because they weren’t allowed to make it complete. They’re not stupid. And the F.B.I. is not going to be Donald Trump’s patsy.”
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on October 03, 2018, 08:09:11 PM
30 + days till midterm election .....  Commit yourself to talk with neighbors and co-workers.  GET OUT AND VOTE. 

1). Who is looking out for the WORKING CLASS instead of the 1%?

2). Who is looking out for women’s rights?

3). Who is looking out for our healthcare?

4). Who wants reasonable gun control?

30 + days and counting .... time to sprint.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on October 04, 2018, 02:09:18 AM
538 now has the Republicans within 8 points of the Democrats - a gain of 1.2 points from where they were on September 12 when Ford's accusations made the news.


Trump's approvals have increased 2 points over the same 3 week period.


With the gerrymandering advantage that Republicans are generally conceded to have, this could come down to a squeaker where few seats change hands.


In the last 21 midterm elections the sitting President's party has lost an average of 30 seats. All we need to take control is 25.


Since WWII
Truman lost 45 seats
Ike lost 18
Kennedy lost 4
LBJ lost 47
Nixon lost 12
Ford lost 48
Carter lost 15
Reagan lost 26
Bush 1st lost 8
Clinton lost 52
Bush 2 GAINED 8
Obama lost 63
in their respective 1st term midterms.


Bush the Younger was the only President whose party gained seats. (Wartime President)?
In these 12 midterm elections 6 times the President's Party lost more than the 25 seats that we need.
The best showing was the Republicans under Bush with +8 the worst was the Democrats under Obama with -63.


With less than 5 weeks left why not talk about the EPA, Coal, and the Paris Accord - and how a vote for Democrats can make a difference.
Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 04, 2018, 04:05:18 AM
Hopefully, Flake, Collins and Murkowski will decline to vote until the FBI have completed an unbiased investigation, and I believe that the FBI investigation would be biased without interviewing Ford:

Title: "‘It’s Disappointing’: Grassley Responds to Latest Request from Christine Ford’s Lawyers"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/‘it’s-disappointing’-grassley-responds-to-latest-request-from-christine-ford’s-lawyers/ar-BBNTHKa?ocid=spartandhp

Extract: "The legal team for Dr. Christine Blasey Ford on Wednesday shot down the Senate Judiciary Committee’s request to turn over evidence related to Ford’s therapy sessions and the polygraph test she took, saying that the FBI has not contacted them for an interview. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, has already issued a response.

Earlier in the day, Ford attorneys Debra Katz and Lisa Banks said the following in a letter to Grassley: “Regarding the documents you have requested in your letter of October 2, 2018, Dr. Ford is prepared to provide those documents to the FBI when is interviewed.


“We have not yet heard from the FBI about scheduling an interview with her,” they added. ”
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on October 04, 2018, 04:57:46 AM
If you're not willing to believe the FBI, say so.


I've never had any faith in them. They were effective as a Death Squad back in the 30's when they bragged of their prowess at machine gunning their quarry, rather than arresting suspects. Hoover did provided humor while he was diligently searching for homosexuals in the White house, but I've never found their investigations to be credible & I won't have any faith in whatever they report this time - regardless of how long they spend on it.


It's going to be decided by perceptions, not facts.
Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 04, 2018, 05:54:23 PM
Hopefully, at least both Sasse and Flake vote no on the confirmation of Kavanaugh:

Title: "Republican Sen. Ben Sasse drops a bombshell on the debate over Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court"

https://www.businessinsider.com/republican-ben-sasse-on-brett-kavanaugh-trump-should-nominate-someone-else-2018-10

Extract: "
•   Republican Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska gave an impassioned speech Wednesday night on the Senate floor about sexual assault and the #MeToo movement.
•   Sasse also dropped a bombshell about where he stood on Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court, saying he preferred a different candidate when Trump chose Kavanaugh.
•   He recounted the experiences of two friends he said were raped, adding that the #MeToo movement had been "complicated" but also a "very good thing."
•   Then Sasse turned back to Trump. "We all know that the president cannot lead us through this time," he said."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 04, 2018, 05:58:03 PM
If you're not willing to believe the FBI, say so.


I've never had any faith in them. They were effective as a Death Squad back in the 30's when they bragged of their prowess at machine gunning their quarry, rather than arresting suspects. Hoover did provided humor while he was diligently searching for homosexuals in the White house, but I've never found their investigations to be credible & I won't have any faith in whatever they report this time - regardless of how long they spend on it.


It's going to be decided by perceptions, not facts.
Terry

I believe that it is a fact that the FBI investigation was incomplete and rigged by the GOP.  That said, I believe that the FBI is capable of running unbiased investigations, when they are not influenced by outside forces (like Trump & McConnell).

Edit: Furthermore, in an unbiased world, the FBI report would highlight the numerous cases where Kavanaugh perjured himself in his sworn testimony before the Senate.  We will see how the vote goes on Friday (as the FBI report is confidential & I do not know what it contains).
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 04, 2018, 06:30:33 PM
Hopefully, key GOP Senators (like Flake, Sasse, Collins and Murkowski) see that there is so much dirt on Kavanaugh, that they vote no in order to avoid the Democrats using Kavanaugh's dirt against the GOP in the midterms:

Title: "Senate Democrats suggest past FBI probes found evidence of Kavanaugh misconduct"

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-democrats-suggest-past-fbi-probes-found-evidence-of-kavanaugh-misconduct/

Extract: "Eight Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee sent a letter to Republicans members on Wednesday suggesting that past FBI investigations into Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh's background may have included information about allegations of "inappropriate sexual behavior or alcohol abuse," a charge that Republicans quickly denied."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 04, 2018, 07:07:00 PM
In the past, Americans had respect for professional opinions.  If GOP Senators want to Make America Great Again, they can begin by rejecting Kavanaugh & then resist Trump's dumbing-down of US governance and politics:

Title: "More than 1,700 law professors urge senators to reject Kavanaugh"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/03/kavanaugh-confirmation-temperament-law-professors-868125

Extract: "The letter concludes: “We have differing views about the other qualifications of Judge Kavanaugh. But we are united, as professors of law and scholars of judicial institutions, in believing that he did not display the impartiality and judicial temperament requisite to sit on the highest court of our land.”

That number jumped to more than 1,700 as of Thursday morning.

Professors from a number of top law schools signed the letter, including more than a dozen from Harvard, where Kavanaugh previously taught for a decade. There are also roughly a dozen signers from Yale Law School, Kavanaugh’s alma mater. The Times promises to add more signatures as they are submitted."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 04, 2018, 07:29:03 PM
Hopefully, key GOP Senators (like Flake, Sasse, Collins and Murkowski) see that there is so much dirt on Kavanaugh, that they vote no in order to avoid the Democrats using Kavanaugh's dirt against the GOP in the midterms:

Title: "Senate Democrats suggest past FBI probes found evidence of Kavanaugh misconduct"

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-democrats-suggest-past-fbi-probes-found-evidence-of-kavanaugh-misconduct/

Extract: "Eight Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee sent a letter to Republicans members on Wednesday suggesting that past FBI investigations into Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh's background may have included information about allegations of "inappropriate sexual behavior or alcohol abuse," a charge that Republicans quickly denied."

Newsweek is reporting that Collins and Flake are likely yes votes, giving him the 50 votes necessary (plus VP tie-breaker) to assure confirmation.  Three other Senators have not yet committed; Manchin will likely vote no, but Heitkamp may vote yes in an attempt to win over conservative voters in ND (a no vote may doom her campaign).  That leaves Murkowski. 

https://www.newsweek.com/brett-kavanaugh-vote-count-confirmed-nominee-1153317
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 04, 2018, 09:25:50 PM
A proper FBI investigation would have interviewed such accounts:

Title: "Kavanaugh Yale suitemate heard about the incident Ramirez described within days of its occurrence"

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/3/1801370/-Kavanaugh-Yale-suitemate-heard-about-the-incident-Ramirez-described-within-days-of-its-occurrence

Extract: "The new report by Jane Mayer and Ronan Farrow has two accounts that corroborate the allegation of Deborah Ramirez:

But the sham investigation set up by Trump and Mitch McConnell prevented the FBI from interviewing either."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 04, 2018, 09:32:05 PM
That leaves Murkowski. 

https://www.newsweek.com/brett-kavanaugh-vote-count-confirmed-nominee-1153317

Is Murkowski going to sell-out Alaska's native population?

Title: "Alaska's Murkowski faces conflicting pressures at home in Kavanaugh debate"

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-kavanaugh-murkowski/alaskas-murkowski-faces-conflicting-pressures-at-home-in-kavanaugh-debate-idUSKCN1MD2PR

Extract: "On the other hand, the Alaska Federation of Natives, the state’s largest indigenous organization and one of Murkowski’s most powerful supporters, condemned the nomination. Alaska Natives, who make up about 15 percent of the state’s population, have expressed concern that Kavanaugh’s court decisions reflect a willingness to erode indigenous and tribal rights.

Alaska Governor Bill Walker, an independent, and Lieutenant Governor Byron Mallott, a Democrat, have also called for Kavanaugh to be rejected, criticizing him on Alaska Native rights, healthcare and other issues."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 04, 2018, 10:05:44 PM
Forbes believes that if the GOP-controlled Senate confirms Kavanaugh, they will damage both the integrity of the SCOTUS and the rule of law itself:

Title: "The Kavanaugh Nomination Careens From Crisis Towards Calamity"


https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2018/10/04/the-kavanaugh-nomination-careens-from-crisis-towards-calamity/#759326854490

Extract: "If on the other hand, Judge Cavanaugh is confirmed

Most seriously, by confirming a justice whom most law professors deem disqualified for the appointment, the Republican leadership will have gravely damaged two of the cornerstones of the nation: the authenticity and integrity of the Supreme Court and the rule of law itself."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on October 04, 2018, 10:34:16 PM
Quote
Forbes believes that if the GOP-controlled Senate confirms Kavanaugh, they will damage both the integrity of the SCOTUS and the rule of law itself:

Yea .... but Forbes is that "far left, pro socialist, anti-business magazine" ......  ;) ;)

When Kavanaugh's WIFE turns against him for the nomination I'm throwing a red flag for "piling on."  :)

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 04, 2018, 11:41:10 PM
If the GOP has enough votes to confirm, without Murkowski, then she can stand her ground and vote against.  It could be a win-win for the GOP.  I suspect Heidcamp might vote to confirm as a desperate effort to save her seat.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on October 04, 2018, 11:48:09 PM
When the DNC gave the green light for Democrats to vote for Kavanaugh, they came very close to guaranteeing that a far right Supreme Court would rule for a very long time.


If it's a Dem who casts the deciding vote for Kavanaugh, it's time to break out the tar and feathers.
Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: SteveMDFP on October 05, 2018, 12:50:22 AM

If it's a Dem who casts the deciding vote for Kavanaugh, it's time to break out the tar and feathers.
Terry

I'll donate my down pillow for that.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on October 05, 2018, 01:21:31 AM

If it's a Dem who casts the deciding vote for Kavanaugh, it's time to break out the tar and feathers.
Terry

I'll donate my down pillow for that.
I'd supply the tar, but someone would notice the sand in the mix and insist it was all a foreign plot. :)
Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on October 05, 2018, 01:48:51 AM
Apparently I'm not the only one that has little regard for the FBI's capabilities. USA Today, in a sudden burst of Alt-Right passion, notes just a few of the more recent, more egregious screw-ups by the Top Cops.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/10/02/brett-kavanaugh-investigation-fbi-history-bias-mistakes-column/1488099002/

Personally I think the hair of the dog story is a stand out, but we haven't heard Mueller's conclusions as of yet.

NO - You can't borrow the Mounties.
Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 05, 2018, 02:11:08 AM
The problem is that the Democratic Senators were holding out for an FBI investigation.  Now that the Republicans called their bluff, they are out of cards.  Calling the investigation a sham (which it was), only appears as sour grapes.  The bounce the Democrats received two weeks ago, when the allegations first were announced, has evaporated, and may turn out to be a net negative.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on October 05, 2018, 02:15:49 AM
Twelve more updates to Sabato’s Crystal Ball today.  Eleven House updates and 1 Senate update.  How many of those moved in the direction of the Republicans you ask?

ZIPPO.....NADA.....NONE

ALL of the changes moved in the direction of the Democrat’s.

And with Heidi Heitcamp voting NO ..... and I believe Murkowski will also be a no .... that leaves it up to Flake OR Collins to vote (assuming Manchin votes no).  If Flake, Collins, and Murkowski all vote NO ... the Dem’s could lose Manchin and still vote down Kavanaugh.

I think there is a relatively good chance that Flake AND Collins vote NO (Maybe 55 - 60% chance).

Further ..... if Kavanaugh IS confirmed ... that is NOT going to be the end of it for Kavanaugh OR the Republicans.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 05, 2018, 03:48:38 AM
The problem is that the Democratic Senators were holding out for an FBI investigation.  Now that the Republicans called their bluff, they are out of cards.  Calling the investigation a sham (which it was), only appears as sour grapes.  The bounce the Democrats received two weeks ago, when the allegations first were announced, has evaporated, and may turn out to be a net negative.

It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on October 05, 2018, 04:33:37 AM
By the way ..... it’s pretty obvious why Trump didn’t allow Kavanaugh AND Blasey-Ford to be questioned by the FBI:  (1) it would reinforce Blasé-Fords story and (2) it would open up Kavenaugh to lying to the FBI.

Like I have said already ..... Donnie is trying to jam this through so he can get on with his next bit of business ... shutting down Rosenstein/Mueller.

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 05, 2018, 01:42:33 PM
Twelve more updates to Sabato’s Crystal Ball today.  Eleven House updates and 1 Senate update.  How many of those moved in the direction of the Republicans you ask?

ZIPPO.....NADA.....NONE

ALL of the changes moved in the direction of the Democrat’s.

And with Heidi Heitcamp voting NO ..... and I believe Murkowski will also be a no .... that leaves it up to Flake OR Collins to vote (assuming Manchin votes no).  If Flake, Collins, and Murkowski all vote NO ... the Dem’s could lose Manchin and still vote down Kavanaugh.

I think there is a relatively good chance that Flake AND Collins vote NO (Maybe 55 - 60% chance).

Further ..... if Kavanaugh IS confirmed ... that is NOT going to be the end of it for Kavanaugh OR the Republicans.

I do not share your optimism.  Both CNN and the NYTimes indicated that a procedural vote today would end the debate, with a confirmation vote coming either Saturday or next week.  Also, Sabato's updates are following the allegations against Kavanaugh, but prior to the testimony and FBI investigation.  Also, the RCP generic Congressional vote has the Democrats lead down to 7%.  IT was up to 9.5% at the height of the allegations.  The Dems still have a slight edge towards winning the House, but any chances of the Senate appear to be slipping away.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on October 05, 2018, 02:39:04 PM
Quote
I do not share your optimism.  Both CNN and the NYTimes indicated that a procedural vote today would end the debate, with a confirmation vote coming either Saturday or next week.  Also, Sabato's updates are following the allegations against Kavanaugh, but prior to the testimony and FBI investigation.  Also, the RCP generic Congressional vote has the Democrats lead down to 7%.  IT was up to 9.5% at the height of the allegations.  The Dems still have a slight edge towards winning the House, but any chances of the Senate appear to be slipping away.

I'm not sure that a "55- 60% chance" of Flake and Collins voting against confirmation is that "optimistic."  It's slightly more than a coin toss.

As far as Sabato ..... those are just facts.  Right now .... it looks as though the Dem's have about an 8 - 10 headcount lead over the Republicans in the House .... with 35 or so in the "tossup" column.  So ..... odds are NOW .... that the Dem's can take back the House.  The Senate ..... I am LESS optimistic than Nate Silver about the Senate ..... and he has those odds at about 20 - 25% last time I looked.  I think it is less than that .... BUT .... there is a slim chance.  I think North Dakota is likely lost .... so the Dem's are really drawing to an inside straight as they say in Vegas.

I think if Kavanaugh IS confirmed ..... then the Dem's will do better in November.  If Kavanaugh is NOT confirmed, then the Republicans may not do as badly as they are projected RIGHT NOW.  Could they KEEP the House?  Sure.  That is certainly possible ..... and I hope the Dem's have that mindset ..... never be TOO overconfident.

NOTHING is a "done deal" on either side of the coin.  That is why they ALWAYS PLAY THE GAME .... no matter what the odds say.

Today's "procedural vote" at 10:30 is basically "thee" vote.  If he doesn't get the votes today .... he's toast.  And if he DOES get the votes today ..... then tomorrow (and Sunday for the Montana Senator coming back from his daughters wedding) is just a formality (unless something blows up over the weekend before the vote is finalized).

There is a groundswell against Kavanaugh in the public.  That list of 650 law professors from yesterdays New York Times ..... is now over 2,400.  And a retired Supreme Court Justice has changed his mind and spoken out AGAINST confirmation of Kavanaugh.

So we'll know this morning one way or the other ....



Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 05, 2018, 03:41:13 PM
Per the linked Axios article the GOP currently don't have the 50 votes they need to confirm Kavanaugh.  Therefore, if the procedural test (cloture, where Senators are literally voting on whether to hold an official/final vote) vote scheduled for 10:30am ET goes wrong for them, the GOP will likely bring extreme pressure on any negative vote from Jeff, Susan, Lisa and/or Joe, prior to a possible final vote on Saturday:

Title: "GOP nervous ahead of Kavanaugh vote: “We don’t have 50 right now”"

https://www.axios.com/gop-nervous-ahead-of-brett-kavanaugh-vote-c8162287-2dc3-4b83-b59c-4f5cbf6fd2d2.html

Extract: "Sources involved with Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation are nervous going into today's 10:30 a.m. test vote.

Four senators are undecideds: Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.).

A senior source involved in the process told me fairly late last night:
•   "We’re going into this vote and we don’t have 50 right now.""
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 05, 2018, 03:59:27 PM
As Kavanaugh promised in his WSJ piece to be an impartial justice, maybe he should think about what will happen when the Democrats eventually get control of the Senate Judiciary Committee and investigate him for multiple counts of perjury during his confirmation hearings:

Title: "Perjury: Laws and Penalties - Learn what perjury is, common examples, defenses, and punishments."

https://www.criminaldefenselawyer.com/crime-penalties/federal/perjury.htm

Extract: "A person convicted of perjury under federal law may face up to five years in prison and fines."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 05, 2018, 05:07:04 PM
The Senate just voted 51-49 to advance his nomination.  Murkowski voted no, while Flake, Collins, and Manchin voted yes.  This does not guarantee confirmation, but is a step closer.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on October 05, 2018, 05:14:26 PM
So now ..... the Dems have 30 hours to beat Joe Manchin to a pulp, and convince both Manchin and Collins to vote no.  Looks like Flake wants to run for President more than he wants to vote against Kavanaugh.  Too bad ...

We’ll see if any arm twisting does any good.  With Murkowski voting no, pressure is on Collins.  And if Collins votes no tomorrow .... that puts Manchin in a real wedgie.  If he puts the confirmation over the finish line, he may as well change parties (which wouldn’t surprise me by the way).
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 05, 2018, 05:34:40 PM
So now ..... the Dems have 30 hours to beat Joe Manchin to a pulp, and convince both Manchin and Collins to vote no.  Looks like Flake wants to run for President more than he wants to vote against Kavanaugh.  Too bad ...

We’ll see if any arm twisting does any good.  With Murkowski voting no, pressure is on Collins.  And if Collins votes no tomorrow .... that puts Manchin in a real wedgie.  If he puts the confirmation over the finish line, he may as well change parties (which wouldn’t surprise me by the way).

Remember Manchin is running for re-election in an extremely red state.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on October 05, 2018, 05:44:20 PM
Quote
Remember Manchin is running for re-election in an extremely red state.

..... and Kavanaugh could be in the Supreme Court for the next 30+ years.  I say COULD, because he could also be impeached along with Trump and Pence (likely AFTER they are impeached AND removed from office).

If you thought 2018 was fun ..... wait for 2019.  :)

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 05, 2018, 05:57:34 PM
Kavanaugh passed the cloture vote.  Now there is one to two days to swing two more votes against Kavanaugh's confirmation:

Title: "Supreme Court nominee Kavanaugh clears crucial Senate hurdle"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/supreme-court-nominee-kavanaugh-clears-crucial-senate-hurdle/ar-BBNXLDT?ocid=spartandhp

Extract: "A deeply divided Senate pushed Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination past a key procedural hurdle Friday, setting up a likely final showdown this weekend in a battle that's seen claims of long-ago sexual assault by the nominee threaten President Donald Trump's effort to tip the court rightward for decades."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on October 05, 2018, 06:52:55 PM
With a 2 vote edge - (ties go to the GOP) - it seems likely that Kavanaugh will become the next Supreme Court Justice. At 53 years, he'll possibly be making decisions at the highest level for the next 3 decades.


Any second thoughts about attacking the man instead of his record?


Bringing out Ford has galvanized the Republican base, and swung more of the independents to the Republican camp.
When Ford's charges were aired, the Democrats held a 9.2 point lead over Republicans, now it's a 7.7 point lead.
When voters are reminded of sexual misconduct by politicians, Bill is the name that comes to mind, not Brett.
The midterms are still winnable, but we may need to attack Republican policy.


Trump's approvals are up 3 points since Ford's accusations co-opted the news cycles. Fortunately he's not running this November, as his numbers are better than Reagan's or Truman's were at this point - and they both won second terms.
Terry

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: ritter on October 05, 2018, 11:05:01 PM

Any second thoughts about attacking the man instead of his record?


Bringing out Ford has galvanized the Republican base, and swung more of the independents to the Republican camp.

Yup. Big mistake. Now we'll pay the price. Again.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on October 06, 2018, 04:47:36 AM
Cook Political Report has 4 changes to Governors races .... all of them moving to the Democrat’s side.  A couple interest ones.

Illinois:  Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat
Minnesota:  Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat
Oklahoma:  Likely Republican to Lean Republican
South Dakota:  Likely Republican to tossup

The two “interesting” moves are Iowa and Oklahoma.  Oklahoma, because it is soooooo “ruby red”.
For Iowa ..... think tariffs.  Tariffs on soy beans .... from China .... in retaliation for Donnie’s tariffs on China.

As far as the House and Senate go, the next few weeks will have a BEVY Of polls to wade through.  The 35 or so “tossup” seats in the House should be whittled down some, and a clearer picture develop as to where the House will end up.  In the Senate ..... there may still be 8 or so tossup states come November 6. 
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 06, 2018, 04:52:24 AM

Any second thoughts about attacking the man instead of his record?


Bringing out Ford has galvanized the Republican base, and swung more of the independents to the Republican camp.

Yup. Big mistake. Now we'll pay the price. Again.

However, at some point (possibly in the midterms) the Democrats will gain control of the Senate and thus the Senate Judiciary Committee, and then they can refer Kavanaugh for criminal investigation before a grand jury for multiple perjuries under oath during his confirmation hearing.  Then Kavanaugh will pay the price for his actions (as a 53-year man, not a 17-year old boy).
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 06, 2018, 04:59:18 AM
As it is likely that the Democrats will take control of the House this coming midterm, the House Judiciary Committee will investigate Kavanaugh's actions:

Title: "Key lawmaker promises investigation into Kavanaugh if Dems retake House"

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/410168-dem-lawmaker-promises-investigation-into-kavanaugh-if-democrats-retake-house

Extract: "The top Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee says Democrats plan to open an investigation into Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh if they take back control of the House this fall.

“It is not something we are eager to do,” Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), who is in line to become chairman of the committee if Democrats retake the House, said in an interview with The New York Times on Friday.

“But the Senate having failed to do its proper constitutionally mandated job of advise and consent, we are going to have to do something to provide a check and balance, to protect the rule of law and to protect the legitimacy of one of our most important institutions,” he added.

Nadler argued that there was evidence that Senate Republicans and the FBI had overseen a "whitewash" investigation into sexual misconduct allegations against Kavanaugh."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on October 06, 2018, 10:45:25 AM
Minorities may be particularly receptive to the message that people are falsely accused even when entirely innocent.
The once independent Deplorable Dregs are also more liable to have been falsely accused of something, than those of higher status.


Going after Kavanaugh by accusing him high school misconduct was a mistake. To date it's cost us his ascendancy to the court, and an unknown number of votes. Pushing the narrative further will cost us more, how much more will depend on how much longer and harder we push.


Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 06, 2018, 02:12:39 PM
Minorities may be particularly receptive to the message that people are falsely accused even when entirely innocent.
The once independent Deplorable Dregs are also more liable to have been falsely accused of something, than those of higher status.


Going after Kavanaugh by accusing him high school misconduct was a mistake. To date it's cost us his ascendancy to the court, and an unknown number of votes. Pushing the narrative further will cost us more, how much more will depend on how much longer and harder we push.


Terry

I agree that it has had its cost.  At this point, it may be better to lick the wounds and move on.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 06, 2018, 04:50:15 PM
Minorities may be particularly receptive to the message that people are falsely accused even when entirely innocent.
The once independent Deplorable Dregs are also more liable to have been falsely accused of something, than those of higher status.


Going after Kavanaugh by accusing him high school misconduct was a mistake. To date it's cost us his ascendancy to the court, and an unknown number of votes. Pushing the narrative further will cost us more, how much more will depend on how much longer and harder we push.


Terry

All of your points are much more appropriate to apply to the GOP rather than to the Democrats, especially w.r.t. Trump's mocking of Ford.  Plus you seem to forget that Ford is (are the other accusers are) not a Democrat plant(s) and that Kavanaugh was assumed to be a shoe-in before this sexual harassment/assault matter arose:

Title: "Christine Blasey Ford Found Trump's Mocking ‘Very Hurtful,’ Lawyers Say"

https://www.thedailybeast.com/christine-blasey-ford-found-trumps-mocking-very-hurtful-lawyers-say

Extract: "As Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court appeared to become all but certain Friday night, lawyers for Dr. Christine Blasey Ford told CNN’s Dana Bash that their client did not regret bringing her sexual assault allegation forward against the nominee. “I don't think she has any regrets. I think she feels like she did the right thing,” Lisa Banks said. “And this was what she wanted to do, which was provide this information to the committee so they could make the best decision possible. And I think she still feels that was the right thing to do, so I don't think she has any regrets.” Asked by Bash what Ford, who recalled the “uproarious laughter” at her expense during last week’s hearing, thought when she saw that President Trump had openly mocked her at a campaign rally this week, Banks added, “It was very hurtful, as it would be to any woman. Any survivor who had the courage to come forward only to be mocked and belittled by anyone really, but certainly by the president of the United States, it was very upsetting. It was very hurtful.”"

Edit: Don't let all of your doom and gloom thoughts about Democrat 'mistakes' fool you into to forgetting that it is always darkest before the dawn, and the Democratic base is also being energized by this matter; which may contribute to a blue wave in November.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 06, 2018, 05:00:29 PM
Soon Don McGahn won't be the WH counsel, and the soon to be Democrat controlled House Judiciary Committee will subpoena him to get the full story of how the WH rigged the Kavanaugh investigation:

Title: "F.B.I. Review of Kavanaugh Was Limited From the Start"

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/05/us/politics/trump-kavanaugh-fbi.html

Extract: "An exasperated President Trump picked up the phone to call the White House counsel, Donald F. McGahn II, last Sunday. Tell the F.B.I. they can investigate anything, he told Mr. McGahn, because we need the critics to stop.

Not so fast, Mr. McGahn said.

Mr. McGahn, according to people familiar with the conversation, told the president that even though the White House was facing a storm of condemnation for limiting the F.B.I. background check into sexual misconduct allegations against Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh, a wide-ranging inquiry like some Democrats were demanding — and Mr. Trump was suggesting — would be potentially disastrous for Judge Kavanaugh’s chances of confirmation to the Supreme Court."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on October 06, 2018, 06:32:10 PM
ASLR


When 358's numbers return to where they were when Ford hit the news cycle, I'll consider your point as possibly having some merit.


As we speak Republican numbers are better than they've been since Trump was elected, and the bump or swell began the day after this hit the news stands.


The Republicans never understood why Clinton didn't whither under their blistering attacks against his morality - but he ended his presidency with the highest approval numbers of any president.


Are we determined to follow their lead?
Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 06, 2018, 09:16:46 PM
ASLR


When 358's numbers return to where they were when Ford hit the news cycle, I'll consider your point as possibly having some merit.


As we speak Republican numbers are better than they've been since Trump was elected, and the bump or swell began the day after this hit the news stands.


The Republicans never understood why Clinton didn't whither under their blistering attacks against his morality - but he ended his presidency with the highest approval numbers of any president.


Are we determined to follow their lead?
Terry
First, you seem to show very little concern for the Democrats' moral responsibility to defend women like Dr Ford etc. from misogynistic GOP behavior, including throwing sexual assault victims under the bus (see the damage done to Ford, not only by Trump but by his followers):

Title: "What Christine Blasey Ford’s witness has to say after being left out of the FBI probe"

https://qz.com/1415990/read-letter-of-blasey-fords-witness-after-fbis-kavanaugh-probe/

Extract: "As Senator Flake anticipated in a speech before the hearing last week, coming forward has forced Christine, her husband, and their two sons to endure treatment that no human being should have to suffer. Within hours after the first news story was published, throngs of reporters descended on their home, driving the family (perhaps permanently) out of the neighborhood. The family has been subjected to a near constant barrage of harassing entails, phone calls and social media attacks (“die, you fucking cunt”), many of them obviously coordinated and many threatening death or bodily harm. Because of the attacks, Christine hasn’t spent more than three consecutive nights in the same place. They have had to hire a security firm 24/7, and they have to be transported from place to place in secret. Christine hasn’t slept more than three hours at a time since September 16th. She has trouble eating. She has had to relinquish her teaching responsibilities for the semester. And the list goes on. Perhaps forever."

Second, regarding following the GOP lead, I point-out that there is a very real difference between individual and group/political behavior.  For example, I have deep respect for the Buddha; however, I am not upset that he did not fight against the extant dictatorial kings (some of which included his followers), nor shame soldier for killing (many of whom where his followers); instead he challenged them individually to try to do better; while he accepted them in the moment for what they were (dictators, killers, prostitutes, etc); and much the same can be said about Jesus.  So just because Democrats are putting up a fight for women's rights against the GOP who have rigged the voting laws, rigged governance in the USA and, rigged the FBI investigation of Kavanaugh; doesn't mean that collectively they are not trying to make the USA a better place; even if their group behavior may not be ideal for reaching nirvana/nibbana on an individual level.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on October 06, 2018, 10:03:03 PM
It's official, 50 - 48, might be a while before the Supreme's come down on our side of anything.


Trump wins, Republicans win, and the Democrats double down going into the mid terms.


Obama was more popular than Trump is when he lost 63 Democratic Congressmen in his first mid term. If the Democrats have played their cards well since Trumps election, they should expect to do better against Trump's Republicans than the Republicans did against Obama's Democrats, and it's still possible that they will.


Personally I think our strategy has been wrong since day one.


We began by looking for Russians under every lamp post. a search lead by women who instead of wearing their hearts on their sleeves, were wearing their vagina's on their heads.


Why were we acting so irrationally?
Hillary's supporters wouldn't accept that she had lost the election. She'd made it a big deal of insisting that the loser must accept the winner was the legitimate President, then when the results came in she attempted to delegitimize Trump's win.
Vats of ink and miles of video were spent trying to convince the world that the Russians had stolen "her" elections. Some believed it - many did not.
The women came out sporting their nasty hats presumably because they were incensed over an insensitive remark Trump had made years earlier that degraded the women he had been meeting. There were and are a thousand reasons for not wanting Trump to be the President. A wise ass remark when he didn't think he was being recorded is one of them. But it's certainly not my primary reason for wanting some one else in office, in fact if I was jotting down reasons to oppose Trump that wouldn't even make it to the first page.


We'll skip forward to the Kavanaugh fiasco.
Lots of valid reason to want him rejected. What he may or may not have done in high school isn't a valid reason to reject a 53 year old for a government appointment - it just isn't.
And everyone was aware of the insincerity of our outrage. We knew it, they knew it, even Deplorables and Dregs knew it.


So we've a President we don't want. A Supreme Court Justice that we don't want, and I think we're going to have more Republican Congresscritters than we want.


To a great extent because we won't be honest about why we don't want them.
Terry

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on October 06, 2018, 10:13:23 PM
I'm relieved to learn of all of the real concern for Dr. Ford.
We certainty won't be going against her explicit wishes by holding impeachment hearings then.

https://6abc.com/politics/ford-wont-pursue-allegations-against-kavanaugh-further/4427136/

CNN - She does not want him impeached then?
Ford's rep. - NO

So we'll now be able to get on to other matters.
Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 07, 2018, 02:06:10 AM
There appears to be substance to the accusation that Chief Justice John Roberts is covering up formal complaint of Kavanaugh Misconduct filed with U.S. Circuit Judge Karen LeCraft Henderson and formally passed on to Roberts for his action:

Title: "Chief Justice John Roberts Accused of ‘Cover Up’ for Sitting on Kavanaugh Misconduct Complaints"

https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/chief-justice-john-roberts-accused-of-cover-up-for-sitting-on-kavanaugh-misconduct-complaints/

Extract: "U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts has received over a dozen official judicial misconduct complaints leveled against U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit Court Judge and Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

So far he has not forwarded the complaints to a proper judicial panel. Now, some critics are calling foul and accusing Roberts of mounting a cover-up in favor of the controversial Supreme Court nominee.

Those official misconduct complaints were forwarded to Roberts by a fellow member of Kavanaugh’s court. While U.S. Circuit Judge Merrick Garland would traditionally have overseen those complaints, Garland chose to recuse himself on the matter, according to Buzzfeed News.

In his stead, U.S. Circuit Judge Karen LeCraft Henderson fielded the multiple complaints against Kavanaugh. Judge Henderson dismissed many complaints filed against the Supreme Court nominee as “frivolous,” but found substantial merit in over a dozen of the complaints she reviewed.

According to the Washington Post, Henderson began forwarding the complaints she deemed valid onto Roberts. Henderson sent them to Roberts so that Kavanaugh’s fellow judges on the D.C. Circuit would not have to assess the serious and substantive issues raised against a colleague.

Roberts’ decision to sit on the complaints against Kavanaugh stands in stark contrast to how he handled a similar complaint–centered around allegations of sexual misconduct and harassment–filed against Kavanaugh’s mentor, now-former judge Alex Kozinski.

In that case, Chief Justice Roberts forwarded the Kozinski complaint to another circuit the day after he received it. Thus, Roberts’ decision here raises some serious questions.

New York University Law School Professor and legal ethics expert Stephen Gillers noted, in comments to the Post, “If Justice Roberts sits on the complaints then they will reside in a kind of purgatory and will never be adjudicated. This is not how the rules anticipated the process would work.”"
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 07, 2018, 02:24:39 AM
It's official, 50 - 48, might be a while before the Supreme's come down on our side of anything.


Trump wins, Republicans win, and the Democrats double down going into the mid terms.


Obama was more popular than Trump is when he lost 63 Democratic Congressmen in his first mid term. If the Democrats have played their cards well since Trumps election, they should expect to do better against Trump's Republicans than the Republicans did against Obama's Democrats, and it's still possible that they will.


Personally I think our strategy has been wrong since day one.


We began by looking for Russians under every lamp post. a search lead by women who instead of wearing their hearts on their sleeves, were wearing their vagina's on their heads.


Why were we acting so irrationally?
Hillary's supporters wouldn't accept that she had lost the election. She'd made it a big deal of insisting that the loser must accept the winner was the legitimate President, then when the results came in she attempted to delegitimize Trump's win.
Vats of ink and miles of video were spent trying to convince the world that the Russians had stolen "her" elections. Some believed it - many did not.
The women came out sporting their nasty hats presumably because they were incensed over an insensitive remark Trump had made years earlier that degraded the women he had been meeting. There were and are a thousand reasons for not wanting Trump to be the President. A wise ass remark when he didn't think he was being recorded is one of them. But it's certainly not my primary reason for wanting some one else in office, in fact if I was jotting down reasons to oppose Trump that wouldn't even make it to the first page.


We'll skip forward to the Kavanaugh fiasco.
Lots of valid reason to want him rejected. What he may or may not have done in high school isn't a valid reason to reject a 53 year old for a government appointment - it just isn't.
And everyone was aware of the insincerity of our outrage. We knew it, they knew it, even Deplorables and Dregs knew it.


So we've a President we don't want. A Supreme Court Justice that we don't want, and I think we're going to have more Republican Congresscritters than we want.


To a great extent because we won't be honest about why we don't want them.
Terry

Terry,
This post was so good, I had to read it twice.  I think your analysis is spot on.  The DNP could use you in its campaign strategy team.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 07, 2018, 08:51:52 AM
I'm relieved to learn of all of the real concern for Dr. Ford.
We certainty won't be going against her explicit wishes by holding impeachment hearings then.

https://6abc.com/politics/ford-wont-pursue-allegations-against-kavanaugh-further/4427136/

CNN - She does not want him impeached then?
Ford's rep. - NO

So we'll now be able to get on to other matters.
Terry

I doubt it. Pretty sure the dems will continue this- at least till the election. They might leave Ford out of it but the other accusers seem happy to keep it up.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 07, 2018, 09:50:28 AM
Didn't know where to put this exactly..but seems relevant a few threads...

https://youtu.be/gv0anqwjFk4
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: JMP on October 07, 2018, 12:20:18 PM
The word Supreme doesn't mean what it did day before yesterday. 
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on October 07, 2018, 03:05:01 PM
Thanks KK


Somehow we lost faith in the voting public and became convinced that the only way we could win their vote was by lying to them. It's been said that no one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people, but spotting alligator tears and faux outrage are skills that the disenfranchised have honed over lifetimes of having been accused of everything from immorality to laziness - while their real crime was being poor.


Terry


Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 07, 2018, 03:20:10 PM
Thanks KK


Somehow we lost faith in the voting public and became convinced that the only way we could win their vote was by lying to them. It's been said that no one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people, but spotting alligator tears and faux outrage are skills that the disenfranchised have honed over lifetimes of having been accused of everything from immorality to laziness - while their real crime was being poor.


Terry

The linked Bloomberg op/ed piece indicates that Kavanaugh's confirmation process was just one of many examples that the GOP has become the 'Post-Truth' party, where the majority of Republicans feel entitled to spin out any absurd falsehood in service to their cause of money & power.

Title: "Collins and Kavanaugh: The Post-Truth Republican Party"

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-10-06/collins-kavanaugh-and-the-post-truth-republican-party

Extract: "Senator Susan Collins alone occupied the defining hour of the drama. And her speech Friday – far more than anything said by Kavanaugh or by his accuser Christine Blasey Ford – will be the document that represents this chapter of history. Its implications are harrowing.

Collins’s speech offered a series of ostensible rationales for her vote in favor of Kavanaugh. But her rationales were reminiscent of Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell feigning outrage over the perfidious delaying tactics of Democrats – not so long after he completely blocked the nomination of Merrick Garland.

McConnell didn’t expect his protests to be taken seriously. He was showing the Republican base, which has been conditioned by Donald Trump to savor such displays, that he could spin out an absurd falsehood in service to the cause. Remember the Russian claim that assassins dispatched with deadly toxin were actually tourists just visiting Britain to see a lovely cathedral? The open contempt for truth – a comic level of gas-lighting – is the whole point. 

Collins offered some traditional partisan fare: She unwound a lengthy complaint about the involvement of liberal interest groups in a nomination process that was organized and dominated by conservative interest groups. But she anchored her speech in the vapors of Trump and McConnell’s post-truth, confirming it as the lingua franca of the entire party.

In reality, like her Republican colleagues, Collins either didn’t believe Ford was telling the truth or didn’t particularly care what the truth might be. And Collins expected her own speech to be similarly dismissed by its intended audiences. With truth a steadily devaluing currency, Collins cashed out."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 07, 2018, 04:03:40 PM
Thanks KK


Somehow we lost faith in the voting public and became convinced that the only way we could win their vote was by lying to them. It's been said that no one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people, but spotting alligator tears and faux outrage are skills that the disenfranchised have honed over lifetimes of having been accused of everything from immorality to laziness - while their real crime was being poor.


Terry

I think both parties have consistently underestimated both the intelligence of the voting public and their enthusiasm for certain issues.  The Republican Party thought that Bill Clinton’s sexual exploits would be his undoing.  People still voted for him.  The Democrats were certain Trump was doomed after the grabbing comment.  People still voted for him.  The same goes for many of the issues.  The general public cares little for a politician’s stand on abortion, capital punishment, climate change, and a host of other issues.  Focusing too much on Kavanaugh, and ignoring other issues, may be detrimental.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 07, 2018, 04:25:25 PM
....snip  Focusing too much on Kavanaugh, and ignoring other issues, may be detrimental.

It sure will be. Also I have heard from the GOP side people calling to continue and haunt Ford ,her lawyers and some of the other accusers to "get to the bottom of this". For both sides this is really a bad idea.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on October 07, 2018, 05:55:55 PM
ASLR
The fact that they do it too is no excuse to follow their lead.


When we bank on revealing Kavanaugh's high school peccadilloes, rather than addressing judgments that he's made, or opinions he's written, we're telling the voters that his record is of far less import than his supposed high school antics.


This isn't only untrue, it undercuts what might have been valid arguments for voting against him. We weren't for Kavanaugh until Ford's testimony was presented, we despised him not for who he was but for what his record said about his understanding of the American Constitution.


The Senate didn't confirm him based on his writings, they confirmed him because we had let him off that hook and asked the Senators to weigh his denial against Ford's charges.
We were felled by a self inflected blow.
Terry


PS
Russia has her own thread.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 07, 2018, 06:30:31 PM
ASLR
The fact that they do it too is no excuse to follow their lead.


When we bank on revealing Kavanaugh's high school peccadilloes, rather than addressing judgments that he's made, or opinions he's written, we're telling the voters that his record is of far less import than his supposed high school antics.


This isn't only untrue, it undercuts what might have been valid arguments for voting against him. We weren't for Kavanaugh until Ford's testimony was presented, we despised him not for who he was but for what his record said about his understanding of the American Constitution.


The Senate didn't confirm him based on his writings, they confirmed him because we had let him off that hook and asked the Senators to weigh his denial against Ford's charges.
We were felled by a self inflected blow.
Terry


PS
Russia has her own thread.

Your wishful thinking does not seem to line-up with reality very well, as the GOP was going to seat Kavanaugh despite the Democrats pointing out his voting record.  However, if you can get the majority of US voters to follow your thinking, then more power to you.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on October 07, 2018, 07:32:18 PM
My point was particularly that rather than point out his record, the Dems & the media that had their back went ballistic in ignoring his record and fixating on an episode that may or may not have occurred 35 tears ago in somebody's parent's spare bedroom.


Ruth is 85 and in questionable health. Thomas is 70.


I doubt that we'll see a liberal court during my lifetime.


We had our chance and muffed it.
We need votes 30 DAYS from now and the numbers are running away from us. If a particular strategy isn't working - change strategies, and possibly straticians.


Why don't we want Republicans to retain power after November?
Have we told the voting public why we don't want another Republican Congress?
Can we explain how we'll make their life easier, less painful or more meaningful?


Otherwise they're liable to vote for the oaf who lies through his teeth, but tells them lies that they find comforting.
Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on October 08, 2018, 01:00:38 AM
The word Supreme doesn't mean what it did day before yesterday.
& it was already less after Thomas squeezed in.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 08, 2018, 08:13:41 AM


Ruth is 85 and in questionable health. Thomas is 70.

I doubt that we'll see a liberal court during my lifetime.


It's more extreme even. Stephen Breyer (Clinton nominee) is 80. If Trump runs and is around till 2024 he could put 2 more conservatives on the court.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on October 08, 2018, 10:41:07 AM

It's more extreme even. Stephen Breyer (Clinton nominee) is 80. If Trump runs and is around till 2024 he could put 2 more conservatives on the court.


 Ramen!
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 08, 2018, 04:46:06 PM
Kavanaugh's confirmation will likely widen the GOP's gender gap problem:

Title: "The GOP's gender gap problem"

https://www.axios.com/the-republican-gender-gap-problem-279b2af0-5c81-4f1a-bd4b-dfce75fc759b.html

Extract: "This was a striking graphic in a recent slide deck by Bruce Mehlman of Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas. It shows how rapidly women have drifted away from the Republican Party since the 2016 election — opening up a lopsided preference for Democrats to control Congress in just the last few months.

Why it matters: The Brett Kavanaugh confirmation fight isn't likely to help. And with men preferring Republicans by a narrower margin — 47% to 44% in the September NBC/WSJ poll — the graphic is a vivid illustration of the troubles ahead if the GOP alienates women voters."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 08, 2018, 04:51:58 PM
For the midterm elections, hopefully, not only female voters but also the youth vote will realize that the GOP does not represent their best interests:

Title: "With Kavanaugh Confirmation, GOP Commits Again To Patriarchy, Misogyny"

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/republican-party-brett-kavanaugh-patriarchy-misogyny_us_5bbaaf43e4b01470d05284ca

Extract: "The GOP is now essentially the last bastion of male dominance in a Me Too world."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 08, 2018, 05:05:46 PM
538 has updated their Senate forecast.  They moved ND and TN into the Lean R category, which would give the GOP the necessary 50 seats.  They also have FL, MO, and NV as tossups.  On the Dem side, they moved IN from a lean to a likely D.  The odds of the GOP retaining the Senate has been increased to 78%.  The House forecast has not changed much, the Democrats are still ahead,  with a 74% chance to win (down 1%).
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 08, 2018, 05:53:38 PM
Trump doesn't want to motivate Democrat voters by firing Rosenstein now:

Title: "Donald Trump puts to rest speculation he may fire Rod Rosenstein, says they get along 'very well'"

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/08/rod-rosenstein-donald-trump-meeting/1563389002/

Extract: "President Donald Trump said Monday he has no intention of firing Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, ending lingering uncertainty over the official's tenure in the wake of reports he had suggested invoking the 25th Amendment last year to remove Trump.

Trump and Rosenstein were expected to talk aboard Air Force One while flying to Orlando for an event with police chiefs.

“I get along very well with him,” he told reporters as he departed the White House. Asked if he planned to fire Rosenstein, Trump replied, "No, I don't.""
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 08, 2018, 06:46:59 PM
While the GOP takes a victory lap over the Kavanaugh confirmation, don't forget that Trump alienated many female voters by mocking Ford and continuing investigation of his family's tax schemes may further taint the GOP before the midterm elections:

Title: "We're less than a month away until the midterms. Here are five essential questions."

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/we-re-less-month-away-until-midterms-here-are-five-n917701

Extract: "The Kavanaugh confirmation is a political victory for Trump and the GOP. And it took place in a week when the unemployment rate fell to 3.7 percent.

But the week, notably, also coincided with some very low moments for the president — his mocking of Ford, the devastating New York Times investigation about his family's tax schemes and "outright fraud.""
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 08, 2018, 06:57:42 PM
Time will tell, but the Democrats still have a good chance of making significant gains in the midterms:

Title: "Red wave? Not so fast, Republicans"

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/410270-red-wave-not-so-fast-republicans

Extract: "Many Republicans believe that the Senate vote to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court will shift the tide of a blue wave and increase Republican enthusiasm as we approach the November midterm elections. There is, however, a stronger chance that Democrats will benefit the most, politically, from the confirmation of a new justice.

Indeed, there is increasing evidence that swing districts are likely to go left next month, and the likely number of seats that the Democrats are poised to gain has steadily increased from the mid to low 20s at this time last year to the mid 30s today. In fact, the Real Clear Politics average for the generic midterm ballot has recently reached its highest level of the Democratic vote, at nearly 50 percent, at since the Republicans in Congress pushed through their unfunded tax cuts last December."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 08, 2018, 07:18:35 PM
CBS says that the Democrats still have an up-hill battle in order to gain control of the Senate:

Title: "Senate races: GOP up in Texas, Tennessee; Dems up in Arizona, New Jersey — CBS News poll"

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-races-gop-up-in-texas-tennessee-dems-up-in-arizona-new-jersey-cbs-news-poll/

Extract: "The battle for Senate control finds Democrats trying to mount upset challenges in a string of typically Republican states, and this round of Battleground Tracker polls shows them having at best mixed results so far."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: colchonero on October 08, 2018, 08:58:16 PM
As a conservative, I feel much better where we stand today than anywhere in the last year and a half, except for the last week. Cruz seems to have gained a couple of points,  RCP average has him at +6,4 last polls have him at +8 +9, the most "critical" one - Emerson that came last time with only +1 now has him at +5. Blackburn seems to have the momentum, North Dakota is now leaning red. Can't wait to see the polls in FL, NV, MT, MO, AZ and IN, and especially in WV. Also, some house races. Although I expect to see a little surge in numbers also for the Democratic candidates, because of the Kavanaugh rage right now, but I think (hope) in the long term (30 days), that Kavanaugh effect will work in a sort of depressing way among some blue voters, cause they'll be disappointed in their leaders, because Kav got confirmed, and President Trump has already 2 SCOTUS seats. I think Democrats have to make a risky decision now, should they continue to "fight Kavanaugh" so that they can keep voter enthusiasm high until the midterms, but also keep republicans motivated, or should they stay quiet and hope the country and especially Republican voters forget a little bit about Kavanaugh, and don't show up in the big numbers, whereas anti Trump voters show to the polls in November.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: LRC1962 on October 08, 2018, 11:35:37 PM
As a complete outsider of US politics I have to really laugh at US obsession that socialism equals communism. a) earliest beginnings of universal Started when King of Sweden first introduced national stats in the mid 1700 and found out he had a very high mortality rate in his country that could not support his large army. Solution . bring in national health and to improve that later on national education https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:17729/FULLTEXT01.pdf.
One of earliest universal pension schemes was Bismarck  in Germany. https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/10/how-retirement-was-invented/381802/ neither of which you can call leftest with a straight face.
Granted each had their own reasons for doing so, but each were as about as hard right politically you can get and still have a chance at retaining power.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 09, 2018, 08:19:38 AM
While the GOP takes a victory lap over the Kavanaugh confirmation, don't forget that Trump alienated many female voters by mocking Ford and continuing investigation of his family's tax schemes may further taint the GOP before the midterm elections:


I think he alienated mostly women that will not vote for him or GOP anyway.His female supporters won't budge if they didn't after all the "other stuff" Trump has said or done since before the election.
The Independents? NOBODY KNOWS. I believe whatever they were leaning (left or right) will strengthen - each side sees what they want.. Trumps attack on Ford but also the way the D's handled this whole thing. It's all on the undecided and turnout.

The tax thing will have ZERO effect.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 09, 2018, 01:38:36 PM
While the GOP takes a victory lap over the Kavanaugh confirmation, don't forget that Trump alienated many female voters by mocking Ford and continuing investigation of his family's tax schemes may further taint the GOP before the midterm elections:


I think he alienated mostly women that will not vote for him or GOP anyway.His female supporters won't budge if they didn't after all the "other stuff" Trump has said or done since before the election.
The Independents? NOBODY KNOWS. I believe whatever they were leaning (left or right) will strengthen - each side sees what they want.. Trumps attack on Ford but also the way the D's handled this whole thing. It's all on the undecided and turnout.

The tax thing will have ZERO effect.

I agree.  Any female that was not alienated in 2016, will not be swayed by recent events.  The whole confirmation process will likely affect Senatorial races, but have minimal effect on the House.  Manchin most likely guaranteed his re-election by voting yes, and Heidkamp likely sealed her defeat by voting no.  One candidate who may feel the outrage over the entire affair is Bredesen in Tennessee, where the voters support confirmation.  Indiana could be interesting also.
 The challengers in Texas and New Jersey may have seen their hopes of unseating their respective incumbents just go up in smoke. 
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on October 09, 2018, 03:58:54 PM
Quote
As a conservative, I feel much better where we stand today than anywhere in the last year and a half, except for the last week.

That's funny ..... because as a FISCAL CONSERVATIVE (and Social Moderate) I FEEL HORRIBLE.  Why?

1)  We are more than 1.5 TRILLION in debt due to the tax cut for the wealthy.  REAL fiscal conservatives don't like going in debt further in case you didn't know it.  The chart by the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) is NOT a pretty site ..... for a TRUE FISCAL CONSERVATIVE.

https://dailyreckoning.com/is-trumps-tax-cut-paying-for-itself/

2) While the earth continues to warm ..... it is NOT FISCALLY PRUDENT TO IGNORE IT. We continue to "book" expenses that will ultimately have to be paid.  They are COMING DUE NOW ..... AND THE LONGER WE IGNORE THEM, THE MORE EXPESNIVE IT GETS.  THAT IS NOT FISCALLY CONSERVITE.  THAT IS IGNORANT.  Ask the people of the Miami area that are NOW having to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to raise sidewalks and buy larger pumps.  Ask the people of the Chesapeake Bay area that are continually inundated with worse and worse flooding.  Global warming has already cost us HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS .... with a LOT MORE IN COMING YEARS.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/6-ways-to-prepare-your-finances-for-climate-change-2016-12-20

So "just" on those two VERY BIG POINTS ..... as a FISCAL CONSERVATIVE, I feel horrible.

Of course .... if the Democrat's are able to take back the House ..... then MAYBE the US can turn this nightmare around over time.

I NEVER thought I would be looking for Democrat's to be the "fiscally responsible party" ..... but that is where we now stand.






Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: TerryM on October 09, 2018, 05:00:15 PM

That's funny ..... because as a FISCAL CONSERVATIVE ...


I NEVER thought I would be looking for Democrat's to be the "fiscally responsible party" ..... but that is where we now stand.
So - as a "Fiscal Conservative", who's party have you been supporting?


Certainly the party of Clinton and Obama wouldn't be your choice, so was it the party of Bush, Romney and McCain?
Did your political dissonance begin when Trump became the candidate of your party?
Terry
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on October 10, 2018, 01:22:53 PM
By the way .... when I talk about “we” with regards to the US elections, I mean voting US citizens ... that is who the “we” is.

I saw someone else post part of someone’s earlier post, where a Canadian-Russian Trump supporter used “we” as though he was a voting US citizen, and a Democrat.   I thought it was pretty funny that someone who is a Trump supporter and a Putin apologist would try to include himself as a Democrat and a voting US citizen ..... when he is none of those.  Right comrade? 😉
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 10, 2018, 04:09:11 PM
The GOP may well get a 'reality check' in November:

Title: "Poll: Kavanaugh confirmation energizes Democrats more than GOP"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/10/poll-kavanaugh-midterms-885940

Extract: " Republicans are touting the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh as rocket fuel for the GOP grass roots in next month’s midterm elections, but it’s Democrats who appear more energized by the nomination fight, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll.

Kavanaugh’s confirmation is not popular: In the poll, which was conducted entirely after last week’s Senate vote, 46 percent of voters said the Senate "made the wrong decision" in approving the controversial judge, while 40 percent said it was right to elevate him to the high court."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 10, 2018, 04:16:09 PM
Democratic control of the Senate has a very narrow path to victory, but the path to controlling the House is shown to be widening with each new poll:

Title: "One month until the midterms: House Democrats lead Republicans by double-digits in new poll"

https://www.salon.com/2018/10/09/one-month-until-the-midterms-house-democrats-lead-republicans-by-double-digits-in-new-poll/

Extract: "A new study finds that 209 seats are firmly or leaning Democratic, nine shy of what’s needed to retake the House"
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 10, 2018, 04:50:50 PM
Democratic control of the Senate has a very narrow path to victory, but the path to controlling the House is shown to be widening with each new poll:


The actual polls are showing the opposite.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map_race_changes.html

Still dems ahead and probably going to take the house BUT definitely not "widening"
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 10, 2018, 05:21:30 PM
Democratic control of the Senate has a very narrow path to victory, but the path to controlling the House is shown to be widening with each new poll:


The actual polls are showing the opposite.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map_race_changes.html

Still dems ahead and probably going to take the house BUT definitely not "widening"

538 just moved TX and TN into the likely R category (from leans R).  On the flip side, they moved FL from a toss-up to a leans D.  The overall Dem prospects at winning the Senate have fallen below 20% - the lowest since they started tracking the midterms.  The House has remained fairly steady, with the Dems given a 78% chance of winning the House.  Still, the actual 538 count is 227-208, with 14 toss-ups
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 10, 2018, 06:03:28 PM
...snip

.  The House has remained fairly steady, with the Dems given a 78% chance of winning the House.  Still, the actual 538 count is 227-208, with 14 toss-ups

According to 538 the dems already have a pretty safe majority .

I guess RCP isn't as sure and still have 32 toss-ups.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 10, 2018, 06:50:18 PM
...snip

.  The House has remained fairly steady, with the Dems given a 78% chance of winning the House.  Still, the actual 538 count is 227-208, with 14 toss-ups

According to 538 the dems already have a pretty safe majority .

I guess RCP isn't as sure and still have 32 toss-ups.

538 seems to be much quicker to make the call.  Prior to the 2016 election, 538 had Clinton leading the electoral college 268-187 with 83 toss-ups, which most viewed as pretty safe majority.  RCP had Clinton leading 203-164, with 171 toss-ups, a much closer race.  The final tally was 232-306, excluding spoiled ballots.  RCP had one incorrect call (WI), compared to 538, which prematurely gave Clinton three states (WI, MI, and PA). 

538 appears to give the polls more credence.  A word of caution in doing so; the polls are "adjusted" to yield the same proportion of voter demographics as the previous election.  Hence, the polls are more hindsight than foresight.  Few pollsters have figured out how to correct for this.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 17, 2018, 04:51:25 PM
If you are dependent on Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid, then you should vote against the GOP in the 2018 midterms:

Title: "Mitch McConnell Calls for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid Cuts After Passing Tax Cuts, Massive Defense Spending"

https://www.newsweek.com/deficit-budget-tax-plan-social-security-medicaid-medicare-entitlement-1172941

Extract: "After instituting a $1.5 trillion tax cut and signing off on a $675 billion budget for the Department of Defense, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Tuesday that the only way to lower the record-high federal deficit would be to cut entitlement programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 18, 2018, 03:38:46 PM
The Democrats are out-raising the Republicans for the midterms.  We will soon see what that translates into regarding Congressional seats:

Title: "Midterm fundraising breaks $2 billion"

https://www.axios.com/2018-midterm-elections-fundraising-totals-3433bf48-ae49-4c1f-8da9-3b6bb6a0789e.html

Extract: "Democratic candidates running for Congress this year have raised more than $1 billion, while Republicans took in $709 million through September, according to a Washington Post analysis by Michelle Ye Hee Lee and Anu Narayanswamy."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Red on October 20, 2018, 09:25:12 PM
https://www.greanvillepost.com/2018/10/19/why-is-russiagate-rumbling-into-the-2018-midterms/

The question is not whether Russia, like other countries with extensive intelligence apparatuses, seeks to influence the elections of foreign nations. The question is why corporate media are concentrating on foreign interference, and not the other threats to democracy. In a previous article (FAIR.org, 7/27/18), I argued that the Democrats are using Russia to deflect anger and discontent away from their own failings. If Russia is to blame, there is no need for introspection, nor to address the deep race and class divides in the country that are addressed by surging political movements on the left, from Sanders to Black Lives Matter, and exploited by Trump and the alt-right. The focus on Russia as the sole reason for Trump’s victory allows establishment Democrats to continue as normal, without need for radical internal or policy change. As Clinton said, “America is already great.” To deflect pressure from the left, they can construct a narrative to explain why they lost to the most unpopular candidate ever.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 23, 2018, 06:20:54 PM
A blue wave is likely contingent upon a high voter turnout for the midterms.  So if you are living in one of the early voting states shown on the accompanying list, go out and vote now:
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: be cause on October 23, 2018, 06:28:16 PM
who is funding the caravan of immigrants heading north .. they are a bumper bonus for Trump and co .. ?
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 23, 2018, 06:29:54 PM
https://www.greanvillepost.com/2018/10/19/why-is-russiagate-rumbling-into-the-2018-midterms/

The question is not whether Russia, like other countries with extensive intelligence apparatuses, seeks to influence the elections of foreign nations. The question is why corporate media are concentrating on foreign interference, and not the other threats to democracy. In a previous article (FAIR.org, 7/27/18), I argued that the Democrats are using Russia to deflect anger and discontent away from their own failings. If Russia is to blame, there is no need for introspection, nor to address the deep race and class divides in the country that are addressed by surging political movements on the left, from Sanders to Black Lives Matter, and exploited by Trump and the alt-right. The focus on Russia as the sole reason for Trump’s victory allows establishment Democrats to continue as normal, without need for radical internal or policy change. As Clinton said, “America is already great.” To deflect pressure from the left, they can construct a narrative to explain why they lost to the most unpopular candidate ever.

Well put.  Reminds me of Eyster's quote, “The best way to avoid becoming a scapegoat is to find one.”
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 23, 2018, 08:36:35 PM
Unless the Democrats turn out in force for the midterms, this may be the last free and fair election that the US sees for a while:

Title: "Carl Bernstein: Trump preparing to call midterm elections 'illegitimate' if Democrats take power"

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/carl-bernstein-trump-preparing-to-call-midterm-elections-illegitimate-if-democrats-take-power

Extract: " Journalist Carl Bernstein said Sunday that President Trump has discussed ways to challenge the results of the midterm elections if the GOP's grasp on power slips.

During an appearance on CNN, Bernstein said his sources relayed this information to him on Friday, warning that Trump has talked about a disruption campaign if the results are close but have the Democrats taking control of the House or Senate."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on October 23, 2018, 09:07:57 PM
Trump will do or say ANYTHING to hang on to BOTH/EITHER parts of Congress.  PERIOD.  He knows if the Republicans loses the house, they are going to investigate him and his cronies IN PUBLIC .... ON TV .... and there is NOT enough bull shit in the world to cover THAT up. 🐂
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 24, 2018, 10:49:49 AM
who is funding the caravan of immigrants heading north .. they are a bumper bonus for Trump and co .. ?

Someone is hoping there will be a violent clash at the border right before the election, crying kids, blood if possible.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 24, 2018, 02:04:43 PM
Abrupt,

I think that gossip and propaganda should have no place on this forum.  Spreading such only lessens ones credibility.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 24, 2018, 03:01:31 PM
Abrupt,

I think that gossip and propaganda should have no place on this forum.  Spreading such only lessens ones credibility.

That's what "Orange man bad!" NPC's do.
I thought the left was better than that. :o
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: wili on October 24, 2018, 04:41:34 PM
I call BS on this pearl-necklace-clutching horror about sources. I can't recall you folks ever questioning when...certain posters constantly posted pieces from RT.

Be even handed in your horror at less-than-perfect sources or stfu.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 24, 2018, 04:58:03 PM
I call BS on this pearl-necklace-clutching horror about sources. I can't recall you folks ever questioning when...certain posters constantly posted pieces from RT.

Be even handed in your horror at less-than-perfect sources or stfu.

But but... us RT (and the such) followers are supposed to be "conspiracy theory nuts" so we are allowed! The likes of Buddy, AbuptSLR ,Rob  are supposed to be better than us like I have stated.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 24, 2018, 05:32:27 PM
...snip

.  The House has remained fairly steady, with the Dems given a 78% chance of winning the House.  Still, the actual 538 count is 227-208, with 14 toss-ups

According to 538 the dems already have a pretty safe majority .

I guess RCP isn't as sure and still have 32 toss-ups.

538 is making several predictions based on recent NYTimes polling.  On the eve of the 2016 election, the NYTimes gave Clinton an 84% chance of winning.  They also gave Clinton a 64% chance of winning NC, a 67% chance of winning Florida, an 89% chance of winning Pennsylvania, and a 93% chance on winning in Wisconsin and Michigan.  In fact, the Times overestimated Clinton's support by a whopping four percentage points in the battleground states.  Conversely, they overestimated Trump's support in Nevada by 0.3%. 

538 also has some in-depth analysis on each individual race.  Out of curiosity, I checked on my own House race, in which the most recent poll showed a dead heat, and RCP rated as a pure toss-up.  538 rated it as likely Democrat - not even lean, which is their designation for the close races. 

2016 may have been a fluke polling wise.  If not, many Democrats will be sorely disappointed.  I would not take too much comfort in their 85% chance of the Democrats winning the House.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: sedziobs on October 24, 2018, 05:50:56 PM
538 also has some in-depth analysis on each individual race.  Out of curiosity, I checked on my own House race, in which the most recent poll showed a dead heat, and RCP rated as a pure toss-up.  538 rated it as likely Democrat - not even lean, which is their designation for the close races. 
RCP is included in 538's "Deluxe" forecast, which has a lower chance than the standard forecast.  The standard forecast is higher than polling mostly due to fundraising.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 24, 2018, 06:45:18 PM
538 also has some in-depth analysis on each individual race.  Out of curiosity, I checked on my own House race, in which the most recent poll showed a dead heat, and RCP rated as a pure toss-up.  538 rated it as likely Democrat - not even lean, which is their designation for the close races. 
RCP is included in 538's "Deluxe" forecast, which has a lower chance than the standard forecast.  The standard forecast is higher than polling mostly due to fundraising.

Seems like a rather nebulous criteria.  The correlation between fundraising and House election results is skewed by the 2008 election.  If you remove that one election, there is no correlation between the two.  The two worst fundraising years for the Democrats were 1998 (43%) and 2012 (44%), yet the gained 4 and 8 seats respectively in those two elections.  The worst year for the Democrats was the 2010 election, where they lost 64 seats despite being outspend only 52%-48%.  I am not saying that the fundraising will not have an effect.  Rather, I think it already has, and is manifested into the polling data.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: sedziobs on October 24, 2018, 06:55:31 PM
Fundraising isn't the only proxy being used for the forecast, it's just the one that has the biggest effect across all races.  Incumbency, district partisanship, and the generic ballot are also influential. The issue with only looking at polling is many close races have had very few/poorly rated polls, or no polls at all.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 24, 2018, 10:38:14 PM
We may very well witness the same thing that happened in 2106; conservatives told pollsters that they would not vote for the Republican, but in the end, did so.  The polls started inched red-ward near the end of October, and appear to be following suit this year.  I think the polls may be over estimating Democratic support, and fund raising numbers may be doing the same.  This is part a gut feeling, but it looks eerily similar.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 25, 2018, 08:45:25 AM
We may very well witness the same thing that happened in 2106; conservatives told pollsters that they would not vote for the Republican, but in the end, did so.  The polls started inched red-ward near the end of October, and appear to be following suit this year.  I think the polls may be over estimating Democratic support, and fund raising numbers may be doing the same.  This is part a gut feeling, but it looks eerily similar.

Since I travel in "trumpistan" circles I do hear the narrative of not answering polls or giving false information to make the "November Surprise" as enjoyable as 2016 election night. Also in general it seems many- especially in the more swing counties- tend to keep their politics to themselves as far as Trump support.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on October 25, 2018, 02:21:39 PM
Looks like, as of now, the VERY SLIM chance that the Dems could take back the Senate, goes through Nevada and Tennessee.  The Dems can’t let Nevada “slip away”, and they would have to squeak out a win in red Tennessee, AND manage to win all the other close races in Montana, Indiana, Arizona, and Florida (assuming that North Dakota is already lost).

Clearly, they are “drawing to an inside straight” and the chances are very slim .....
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 25, 2018, 02:34:52 PM
The midterm elections (& controlling the House) are the best opportunity to blunt Team Trump's hateful rhetoric:

Title: "Trump blames "hateful" fake news for societal anger"

https://www.axios.com/trump-tweets-fake-news-societal-anger-b93405c6-be23-441d-80eb-973f419d3e3c.html

Extract: "President Trump placed "a very big part" of the blame for the "Anger we see today in our society" on the news media and its "Fake News" reporting in a Thursday tweet — one day after pipe bombs were sent to prominent Democrats around the country.
"A very big part of the Anger we see today in our society is caused by the purposely false and inaccurate reporting of the Mainstream Media that I refer to as Fake News. It has gotten so bad and hateful that it is beyond description. Mainstream Media must clean up its act, FAST!"
"
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 25, 2018, 02:41:44 PM
For those who did not trust the Washington Examiner story on this matter, following is a link to a Newsweek article where Carl Bernstein (one of the heroes of the Watergate investigation) says that Trump may call the 2018 midterm elections 'illegitimate' should the Democrats take control of Congress:

Title: "Donald Trump May Call 2018 Election 'Illegitimate' Should Democrats Take Control of Congress, Carl Bernstein Says"

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-2018-election-illegitimate-democrats-take-control-congress-carl-1181683

Extract: "Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist Carl Bernstein said over the weekend that should Democrats win control of Congress in a close election, President Donald Trump might move to challenge the legitimacy of the 2018 midterms.

Bernstein made the comments in an interview on CNN's Reliable Sources on Sunday that focused largely on Trump uses "untruth" as a political strategy.

"I talked to people...in touch with the White House on Friday who believe that if the congressional midterms are very close and the Democrats were to win by five or seven seats, that Trump was already talking about how to throw legal challenges into the courts, sow confusion, declare a victory, actually, and say that the election's been illegitimate," Bernstein told host Brian Stelter. "That is really under discussion in the White House.""
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 25, 2018, 05:04:57 PM
538 also has some in-depth analysis on each individual race.  Out of curiosity, I checked on my own House race, in which the most recent poll showed a dead heat, and RCP rated as a pure toss-up.  538 rated it as likely Democrat - not even lean, which is their designation for the close races. 
RCP is included in 538's "Deluxe" forecast, which has a lower chance than the standard forecast.  The standard forecast is higher than polling mostly due to fundraising.

Just a reminder, Clinton outspent Trump 65% - 35%.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: sedziobs on October 25, 2018, 09:10:24 PM
Just a reminder, Clinton outspent Trump 65% - 35%.
Indeed, although Trump outraised Clinton 65% - 35% in small donations.  Fundraising isn't being used because it's perfect.  It's used in House races because it's one of the only data points available. 

Quote
With 435 separate House races every other year — plus races for each of the 100 Senate seats once every six years and each of the 50 governorships at least once every four years — it’s possible to make robust empirical assessments of which factors really predict congressional and gubernatorial races well and which ones don’t. Nonetheless, our models default toward using polling once there’s a lot of high-quality polling in a particular state or district.

Quote
In competitive House districts with incumbents, the following factors have historically best predicted election results, in roughly declining order of importance:
  • The incumbent’s margin of victory in his or her previous election, adjusted for the national political environment and whom the candidate was running against in the prior election.
  • The generic congressional ballot.
  • Fundraising, based on the share of individual contributions for the incumbent and the challenger as of the most recent filing period.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 26, 2018, 01:03:27 AM
The linked article (& graph) indicate that one reason that a big blue wave may happen on Nov 6, is that the Democrats are fielding many more challengers than they typically field:

Title: "This number is why a major Democratic wave is still possible"

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/25/politics/house-2018-midterm-election/index.html

Extract: "It's no accident that, as Malbin notes, two of the most recent wave elections had a common denominator: The party that gained a large number of seats fielded challengers almost everywhere. Again, Malbin: "In the Democratic wave election of 2006, Democrats contested all but 22 of the GOP-held House seats. In the Republican wave election of 2010, the GOP contested all but 24 of the Democratic incumbents.""
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: colchonero on October 26, 2018, 01:45:10 AM
The early voting numbers are looking surprisingly good at least for now.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 26, 2018, 08:22:29 AM
The early voting numbers are looking surprisingly good at least for now.
For gop.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 26, 2018, 10:37:20 AM
It looks like the republican party supports mail bombings. This might influence the results of elections.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 26, 2018, 12:59:16 PM
It looks like the republican party supports mail bombings. This might influence the results of elections.
I do not feel this is any more true than that the Democratic party supported the unabomber.  Hard to say who is behind all this, as none have detonated - they may just be a scare tactic.  I suspect this is just a deranged individual, who believes he has some sort of mandate.  If your contention were to be true, then they deserve a heavy beating.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 26, 2018, 01:59:55 PM
It looks like the republican party supports mail bombings. This might influence the results of elections.
I do not feel this is any more true than that the Democratic party supported the unabomber.  Hard to say who is behind all this, as none have detonated - they may just be a scare tactic.  I suspect this is just a deranged individual, who believes he has some sort of mandate.  If your contention were to be true, then they deserve a heavy beating.
Well their leader calls the recipients of these packages filled with explosives his enemies. Maybe some republican has wanted to dona favor for their leader.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 26, 2018, 06:04:57 PM
It looks like the republican party supports mail bombings. This might influence the results of elections.
I do not feel this is any more true than that the Democratic party supported the unabomber.  Hard to say who is behind all this, as none have detonated - they may just be a scare tactic.  I suspect this is just a deranged individual, who believes he has some sort of mandate.  If your contention were to be true, then they deserve a heavy beating.
Well their leader calls the recipients of these packages filled with explosives his enemies. Maybe some republican has wanted to dona favor for their leader.

Is that any different from Hillary Clinton stating the the Republicans are her enemies? 
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: colchonero on October 26, 2018, 07:47:22 PM
The early voting numbers are looking surprisingly good at least for now.
For gop.

Yeah.
I hope we will gain some seats in the Senate, and somehow (although I don't see it, to be fair) miraculously keep the house.  But at least not lose majority in the Senate.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 26, 2018, 08:16:53 PM
It looks like the republican party supports mail bombings. This might influence the results of elections.
I do not feel this is any more true than that the Democratic party supported the unabomber.  Hard to say who is behind all this, as none have detonated - they may just be a scare tactic.  I suspect this is just a deranged individual, who believes he has some sort of mandate.  If your contention were to be true, then they deserve a heavy beating.
Well their leader calls the recipients of these packages filled with explosives his enemies. Maybe some republican has wanted to dona favor for their leader.

Is that any different from Hillary Clinton stating the the Republicans are her enemies?
Republicans haven't had bombs delivered to their doors.

Now that I checked news, the suspect is a republican, typical.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on October 26, 2018, 08:44:44 PM
Donnie is starting to get a “little worried” about the state of Florida.  There are 3 important races in Florida:

(1). Governor
(2). State Attorney General
(3). Senator

And to Donnie ..... THAT is the order of importance as well.  All 3 races are close ... and EITHER side could win all 3 .... or they could be split.  But if the Republicans were to lose the top two .... Donnie becomes fair game to go after on several different fronts by the state of Florida.  Donnie does NOT want that to happen, which is why he has shuffled his schedule to make two more swings into Florida.

Donnie certainly doesn’t want his racist friend Ron Desantis to lose the Governorship race, and if Rick Scott were to lose in the senate, it could keep the Dem’s SLIM chance of winning the senate alive.

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 26, 2018, 09:47:25 PM
I've never heard of the local Florida politicians recieving these letters, others are known also here.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on October 27, 2018, 03:03:44 AM
Speaking of Florida politicians .... I saw a couple clips of the second Florida Governors debate between Desantis and Gillum.  I NEVER want to play poker against Gillum (D).  In fact, I probably wouldn’t want to play ANYTHING against Gillum.  He is smart, quick witted, brutal, AND smooth all at the same time. 😱

After Gillum listed off a few instances of Ron DeSantis’ interactions with racists, and getting campaign donations from a racist and not returning the money, here is what Gillum said.

 “I’m not calling Mr. Desantis a racist.  All I’m saying is the racists think he is a racist.”

BOOM.  Knock out.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 27, 2018, 08:11:14 PM
Ah, some Bannon's friend (Bannon was and possibly still is Trump's friend, u know it's all a show) has shot 8 people in a Synagogue. Wouldn't be surprised if they found out he's a republican.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: colchonero on October 27, 2018, 10:37:03 PM
Ah, some Bannon's friend (Bannon was and possibly still is Trump's friend, u know it's all a show) has shot 8 people in a Synagogue. Wouldn't be surprised if they found out he's a republican.

No comment on this one really. >:( :( :'(
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 28, 2018, 07:37:02 AM
Ah, some Bannon's friend (Bannon was and possibly still is Trump's friend, u know it's all a show) has shot 8 people in a Synagogue. Wouldn't be surprised if they found out he's a republican.

He was basically a NAZI, and didn't like Trump- Don't forget Trump likes Jews and Israel and makes sure people know that in almost every Rally- and people chear.

There is a lot in common between very far LEFT People like Farrakhan and far right (Nazis? Nazis were socialists) considering the Jews.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 28, 2018, 04:57:15 PM
On Nov 6th, vote as if people's lives (& possibly your own life) depend(s) on it:
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 28, 2018, 05:17:28 PM
Latino voters have learned that Trump's introduction of recalcitrant nativism into GOP politics does not bode well for their futures and they are going to add to the coming blue wave in the midterm elections:

Title: "Latino Voters Are Tuning In — and Turning Blue"

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/2018-midterm-polls-latino-voters-turnout-support-for-democrats-rising.html

Extract: "In 2016, the Latino backlash to Donald Trump was the other shoe that never dropped.

But now — less than two weeks before the midterm ballots are tallied — there are growing signs that the GOP might finally pay a price for its Faustian bargain with Trumpian bigotry."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 28, 2018, 05:25:14 PM
Latino voters have learned that Trump's introduction of recalcitrant nativism into GOP politics does not bode well for their futures and they are going to add to the coming blue wave in the midterm elections:

Title: "Latino Voters Are Tuning In — and Turning Blue"



Once again I'll use the most harsh word I ever use online. Delusional. There is no Blue wave.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 28, 2018, 05:30:24 PM
The linked article helps to clarify why Latino voter will likely contribute to the blue wave in November.  It's their economy stupid:

Title: "More Latinos Have Serious Concerns About Their Place in America Under Trump"

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2018/10/25/more-latinos-have-serious-concerns-about-their-place-in-america-under-trump/

Extract: "About half say situation for U.S. Hispanics has worsened over the past year; majority worry that they or someone they know could be deported."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 28, 2018, 05:32:26 PM
Some might vote blue, sure. But there is no "blue wave"
The senate will be GOP with 2-4 gain.
The House might flip with a small Dem majority (MIGHT)

That is not the definition of a wave. Sorry.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 28, 2018, 06:00:26 PM
Democrats' spending on the midterms will contribute to the coming blue wave (especially in the House):

Title: "Democrats set to outspend Republicans with 9 days until midterms"

https://www.axios.com/democrats-set-to-outspend-republicans-with-9-days-till-midterms-d5776d5d-43da-4b7a-b4a4-257c34926bd0.html

Extract: "In the final two weeks leading up to the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats are projected to spend $143 million on television advertising in House races, while Republicans will spend $86 million, according to a Democratic analysis reported in the New York Times.

Why it matters: Per the Times' Jonathan Martin and Alexi Burns, "much of the Republican spending is aimed less at securing a majority than at limiting the breadth of a Democratic takeover as the field of competition grows well beyond 40 seats.""
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 28, 2018, 06:13:51 PM
The GOP is surrendering control of the House to the Democrats, and are now bracing for a blue wave of subpoenas:

Title: "White House tempers hopes of retaining House control"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/27/trump-2018-elections-midterms-congress-943449

Extract: "White House political director Bill Stepien wrote a three-page memo this week in which he outlined the political landscape confronting the GOP and bluntly warned that the party’s prospects for the House are “challenging.”

Many Republican officials concede their path to retaining their grip on the speaker’s gavel is narrow and believe they will suffer their greatest losses in suburban areas, where the president has proved to be a drag on GOP candidates.

&

Title: "The powerful weapon House Republicans handed Democrats"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/28/house-republicans-subpoena-trump-943265

Extract: "A GOP rule change handed unilateral subpoena authority to many House committee chairmen. Democrats cried foul, but now they hope to use it against Trump.

“The Republicans have set the standard and, by God, we’re going to emulate that standard,” Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) told POLITICO."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 28, 2018, 07:30:05 PM
Those who oppose anti-Semitism should join the coming blue wave in November:

Title: "Anti-Semitism has moved 'into the mainstream,' ADL director says"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/28/anti-semitism-pittsburgh-synagogue-shooting-943932

Extract: "The tragedy can be linked to concurrent political rhetoric, Greenblatt said.
“Political candidates and people in public life now literally repeat the rhetoric of white supremacists,” Greenblatt said. “They think it’s normal and permissible to talk about Jewish conspiracies, manipulating events or Jewish financers somehow controlling activities. And that is awful.”"

&

Title: "House Majority Leader posted anti-Semitic tweet after bomb sent to George Soros’ house"

https://www.salon.com/2018/10/28/house-majority-leader-posted-anti-semitic-tweet-after-bomb-sent-to-george-soros-house/

Extract: "Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., is under scrutiny after it was revealed that he posted a tweet which could be construed as anti-Semitic after a bomb was sent to the home of Jewish philanthropist George Soros and left it up until Wednesday."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 28, 2018, 10:25:40 PM
Some might vote blue, sure. But there is no "blue wave"
The senate will be GOP with 2-4 gain.
The House might flip with a small Dem majority (MIGHT)

That is not the definition of a wave. Sorry.

I agree with your assessment.  More aptly a “blue ripple.”
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 29, 2018, 08:15:43 AM
Those who oppose anti-Semitism should join the coming blue wave in November:

Only problem is that the left in the US has way more anti-semite and anti Israel rhetoric.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 29, 2018, 04:19:01 PM
High voter enthusiasm is typically a good thing for Democrats:

Title: "Midterm voter enthusiasm reaching historic levels"

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/midterm-voter-enthusiasm-reaching-historic-levels-n925326

Extract: "Overall, 65 percent of those surveyed said they had high interest in this midterm election. That figure is higher than any number seen recently.

Even taking into account the steadily increasing number of early votes that come with every election, those numbers suggest an impressive level of voter engagement. Remember those figures are comparing this midterm electorate to the last presidential one.

But the numbers are even more remarkable when you compare the early vote in 2018 to the early vote in the last midterm, 2014, in states with key races.

Georgia, Tennessee and Texas have each seen an increase of more than 500,000 early votes compared to the same point in the 2014 election. In each of those states the early 2018 vote has more than doubled compared to the same point in 2014, according to TargetSmart data."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 29, 2018, 04:54:37 PM
Attached is the Fivethirtyeight forecast for control of the House following the midterm elections (issued Oct 29, 2018).  The Democrats need to gain a net total of 24 additional seats to control the House.  Therefore, I would say that if the Democrats gain more than 34 net additional seats that that would qualify as a clear and definitive 'blue wave' in the midterms; while the attached plot shows that the average (50%-50% chance) net projected gain for the Democrats is +40 seats:
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 30, 2018, 07:52:58 AM
Attached is the Fivethirtyeight forecast for control of the House following the midterm elections (issued Oct 29, 2018).  The Democrats need to gain a net total of 24 additional seats to control the House.  Therefore, I would say that if the Democrats gain more than 34 net additional seats that that would qualify as a clear and definitive 'blue wave' in the midterms; while the attached plot shows that the average (50%-50% chance) net projected gain for the Democrats is +40 seats:

My prediction is House is decided by just a few votes either way- 538 is a bit too optimistic on the Dem side though. Looking at the polling (and lack of) in at least 30 toss-ups , I call it 50/50.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: sedziobs on October 30, 2018, 02:53:34 PM
My prediction is House is decided by just a few votes either way- 538 is a bit too optimistic on the Dem side though. Looking at the polling (and lack of) in at least 30 toss-ups , I call it 50/50.
That may be, but 538 has 11 of the top 20 least polled close races listed as Lean R.  Only 2 are Lean D.  At least by that measure, lack of polling supports Democrats.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 30, 2018, 05:37:33 PM
The linked article offers a reminder of the GOP's gender gap problem with women voters:

Title: "The GOP's gender gap problem"

https://www.axios.com/the-republican-gender-gap-problem-279b2af0-5c81-4f1a-bd4b-dfce75fc759b.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=sendto_newslettertest
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 30, 2018, 05:55:12 PM
The DCCC is learning from, and correcting, its past short-comings w.r.t. to voter turnout:

Title: "Democrats launch multi-state Spanish TV ad to help boost Latino voter turnout"

https://www.axios.com/dccc-spanish-tv-ad-latino-voter-turnout-1346c4ee-514b-4d60-8d26-eba38dadb195.html

Extract: "For the first time, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) released a multi-state TV ad campaign in Spanish to help boost Latino voter turnout before the 2018 midterm elections. The ad — which is one of Democrats' strongest rebuttals to the GOP's closing argument on immigration — will run on Telemundo and Univision in eight cities with key battleground House races in Texas, Nevada, California and Utah.

Why it matters:
Democrats have been criticized this cycle (much like during other elections) for not putting significant resources towards engaging Latino voters, who they consider a crucial piece of their base. But this $500,000 ad buy is part of the DCCC's $30 million investment this year in registering and turning out millennials and voters of color."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 30, 2018, 06:11:33 PM
The Democrats are expanding their fight on order to capture as many House seats as possible with one week to go:

Title: "Dems seek to expand House fight one week before midterms"

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/413743-dems-seek-to-expand-house-fight-one-week-before-midterms

One week before Election Day, Democrats and Republicans across the country see an expanding battlefield for the House majority that hints at a tumultuous and unsettled environment rocked by political violence and ethnic strife.

The number of seats in play has ballooned, with Democrats seeking to extend the playing field in the hope that a blue wave will develop even in districts across the country that voted more heavily in 2016 for President Trump.

That spending represents an against-the-odds bid to expand the number of opportunities Democrats have to gain seats, according to party strategists familiar with the moves. Most of the districts are the kind of seats that are only likely to be won by Democrats if the wave is big, but the spending points to an underlying confidence for the party.

In the final week of the race, the largest Democratic groups are spending money in 64 media markets around the country, according to sources watching the advertising market. Republican groups are spending in 58 markets.

Republicans have been taken aback by the enthusiasm on the Democratic side, one that shows up in campaign finance reports made in the final weeks of the race. Since Jan. 1, Democrats and their supporters have outspent Republican forces by a margin of more than $125 million.

In some of the most hotly contested media markets, like Los Angeles, New York City and Washington, D.C., Democratic spending is twice as high as Republican spending. In virtually every market, Democrats are outspending Republicans on television by millions of dollars.

“It obviously looks slightly better on the Democrat side,” Lara Trump conceded."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 30, 2018, 07:26:32 PM
Attached is the Fivethirtyeight forecast for control of the House following the midterm elections (issued Oct 29, 2018).  The Democrats need to gain a net total of 24 additional seats to control the House.  Therefore, I would say that if the Democrats gain more than 34 net additional seats that that would qualify as a clear and definitive 'blue wave' in the midterms; while the attached plot shows that the average (50%-50% chance) net projected gain for the Democrats is +40 seats:

My prediction is House is decided by just a few votes either way- 538 is a bit too optimistic on the Dem side though. Looking at the polling (and lack of) in at least 30 toss-ups , I call it 50/50.

538 assumes a higher Democratic turnout than Republican, and skews their polls accordingly.  Still, there are a few confusing calls.  Namely the CA-25, where the most recent poll has the incumbent Republican ahead by 4%, but they rate it a leaning Dem district and both MI-11 and Me-2, which are Republican districts, and the polls rate them a dead heat, but 538 lists them as Democratic pickups.  The most perplexing call is KA-2.  This is a heavily Republican district (Trump by 18%, Romney and McCain by double digits, etc.), and the latest Emerson poll shows the GOP candidate with a 7% advantage, but 538 lists this as a Democratic pickup due largely to a 3:1 Democratic fundraising advantage.  This has been one of the nastiest campaigns this cycle.  All told, 538 is relying on fundraising and Democratic-leaning fundamentals to overcome polling data. 

RCP lists the House as Democrats 204, Republicans 199, with 32 tossups (including the aforementioned KA-2 district).  I still expect the Democrats to win the House, but suspect it will come down to five seats or less, and not be decided until well into the night.  Just my opinion.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: sedziobs on October 30, 2018, 08:27:32 PM
The most perplexing call is KA-2.  This is a heavily Republican district (Trump by 18%, Romney and McCain by double digits, etc.), and the latest Emerson poll shows the GOP candidate with a 7% advantage, but 538 lists this as a Democratic pickup due largely to a 3:1 Democratic fundraising advantage.
It shouldn't be perplexing.  538 tells you exactly how their model weighs each individual "fundamental".  In KA-2, the biggest Democratic leaning factor is that the Republican candidate is involved in a scandal.  Of course that's very subjective, but it's not perplexing.  And I'm not sure why you only mentioned the Emerson poll, and not the two other recent polls that averaged D+3.

As for CA-25, the Democrat has 7 times more funds than the Republican.  Maybe you don't agree with the impact, but it's not confusing how 538 came up with their odds.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 30, 2018, 08:36:04 PM
It looking more and more like Trump will be a drag on GOP results in the midterms:

Title: "Trump Approval Rating Plunges Amid Violence as Midterms Approach"

http://fortune.com/2018/10/29/trump-approval-rating-plunges/

Extract: "President Donald Trump’s job approval rating plunged 4 percentage points last week amid a wave of violence, the latest troubling signal for Republican chances in upcoming midterm elections."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 30, 2018, 11:28:22 PM
The most perplexing call is KA-2.  This is a heavily Republican district (Trump by 18%, Romney and McCain by double digits, etc.), and the latest Emerson poll shows the GOP candidate with a 7% advantage, but 538 lists this as a Democratic pickup due largely to a 3:1 Democratic fundraising advantage.
It shouldn't be perplexing.  538 tells you exactly how their model weighs each individual "fundamental".  In KA-2, the biggest Democratic leaning factor is that the Republican candidate is involved in a scandal.  Of course that's very subjective, but it's not perplexing.  And I'm not sure why you only mentioned the Emerson poll, and not the two other recent polls that averaged D+3.

As for CA-25, the Democrat has 7 times more funds than the Republican.  Maybe you don't agree with the impact, but it's not confusing how 538 came up with their odds.

Both candidates in the Kansas district are scandal-ridden. The Republican candidate’s is an unconfirmed accusation (so far), while the Democrat’s is confirmed. Both occurred years ago.  The previous poll was also Emerson, conducted a month ago, so that was a big change.

I know 538 uses fund raising as a metric.  They used it in 2016 when Clinton held a 3:1 advantage, and we know how that turned out.  I am just not sold on their metrics or optimism.  Maybe it just caution after being burned.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 31, 2018, 12:35:09 AM
Clinton did get more votes, but she put her money into AZ and GA instead of PA, WI and MI.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 31, 2018, 09:16:02 AM

Title: "Trump Approval Rating Plunges Amid Violence as Midterms Approach"

http://fortune.com/2018/10/29/trump-approval-rating-plunges/


No "plunge" detected. Zero plunge even. One poll means zilch.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on October 31, 2018, 12:35:55 PM
The USC/LA Times poll ...... the poll that correctly called the 2016 race for Trump over Clinton .... has the Democrat’s with a lead of 57 to 40 in the most current “generic Congressional ballot.

Now ..... to be fair .... the USC/LA Times poll in 2016, while correctly predicting Trump as the winner ... did NOT predict the popular vote correctly.  It had Trump winning by 3 million votes, and Trump actually LOST the popular vote. 😱

Also, if you go back historically and look at the Gallup presidential approval poll right before the midterm compared to the number of seats lost by the sitting presidents party ..... Trump’s current Gallup approval rate of 40% translates to a loss of seats in the House of 40 (Source:  Steve Rattner of Morning Joe).

But I’m sure our Russian friends on this website probably have more insight than those sources, and the elections in the House will be a break even.  Which itself is interesting ... because those Russian sources were calling for the Republicans to easily keep the House just a couple months ago.  Must be the early Russian winter setting in ....😉
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: sedziobs on October 31, 2018, 02:53:18 PM
I know 538 uses fund raising as a metric.  They used it in 2016 when Clinton held a 3:1 advantage, and we know how that turned out.  I am just not sold on their metrics or optimism.  Maybe it just caution after being burned.

538's forecast wasn't so bad in comparison to others.
Quote
Just last week, Nate Silver’s polls-only forecast gave Hillary Clinton an overwhelming 85 percent chance of winning. But as of Thursday morning, her odds have fallen down to 66.9 percent — suggesting that while Donald Trump is still the underdog, there’s a one-in-three shot he’ll end up the next president. Liberals have tried to comfort themselves with the knowledge that FiveThirtyEight is an outlier among the six major forecasts, and that the other five give Trump between a 16 percent and a sub-1 percent chance of winning.
...
So how likely is it that there will be either a polling error (either nationwide or in enough states to tip the scale) or a last-minute swing the polls simply don’t have time to pick up on (again, either nationwide or in enough key states)? All the other models are essentially telling us that given the data we have, these scenarios are very unlikely to transpire — but Silver’s is warning not to count it out.
...
Other models are leaning more towards assuming that with so much polling in so many states showing Clinton narrowly ahead, it’s highly unlikely that they’ll all be wrong in the same way. But Silver’s model thinks a “miss” in national polling would likely be reflected in swing states too — even states that have been considered part of Clinton’s “firewall” up until now.
https://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast (https://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast)
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 31, 2018, 03:20:32 PM

Title: "Trump Approval Rating Plunges Amid Violence as Midterms Approach"

http://fortune.com/2018/10/29/trump-approval-rating-plunges/


No "plunge" detected. Zero plunge even. One poll means zilch.

Even the elected Republican officials declined to meet with Trump on his recent visit to Pittsburgh:

Title: "Trump Visits Pittsburgh As Local Officials Decline To Join Him"

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-pittsburgh-synagogue-visit-shooting_us_5bd8c95ae4b01abe6a190541

&

Title: "Trump’s Visit To Pittsburgh — A City That Didn’t Want Him"

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-pittsburgh-protest-mourning_us_5bd92a8de4b019a7ab5841c5
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 31, 2018, 03:29:15 PM
In less than a week we will find out just how good Pelosi is at projecting the coming blue wave in the 2018 midterm elections:

Title: "Nancy Pelosi’s Bold Midterms Prediction Freaks Out Stephen Colbert"

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nancy-pelosi-stephen-colbert-midterms-prediction_us_5bd96822e4b0da7bfc15394d

Extract: "Pelosi was adamant. “The Democrats will carry the House, if we have a bigger victory, the Senate, governorships,” she said. “It’s going to be a great night for America.”"
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 31, 2018, 03:49:28 PM

Even the elected Republican officials declined to meet with Trump on his recent visit to Pittsburgh:


It doesn't matter. Just the people matter.
In the hospital in Pittsburgh.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 31, 2018, 04:07:23 PM

Even the elected Republican officials declined to meet with Trump on his recent visit to Pittsburgh:


It doesn't matter. Just the people matter.
In the hospital in Pittsburgh.

Even Kanye West has turned his back on Trump and his alt-right agenda:

Title: "Kanye West turns his back on Trump, says he’s done being ‘used’ for conservative agenda"

https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/10/30/kanye-west-turns-his-back-on-trump-is-done-with-being-used-for-the-conservative-agenda/

Extract: "“My eyes are now wide open and now realize I’ve been used to spread messages I don’t believe in,” he tweeted. “I am distancing myself from politics and completely focusing on being creative !!!”"
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 31, 2018, 04:33:48 PM


Extract: "“My eyes are now wide open and now realize I’ve been used to spread messages I don’t believe in,” he tweeted. “I am distancing myself from politics and completely focusing on being creative !!!”"

Yes he was talking specifically about Candice Owens and the Blexit thing. I doubt he thinks differently about Trump. But he has a business and it might be hurting him so... what choice did the left give him? Still, he was a bit crazy before and after...
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 31, 2018, 05:00:08 PM
Just a reminder that Gallup's most recent poll shows Trump's approval rating dropped 4 points in one week:

Title: "Poll: Trump approval drops 4 points in a week"

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/413671-poll-trump-approval-drops-four-points-in-a-week

Extract: "President Trump's approval rating dropped 4 points last week, essentially erasing the gains he made in Gallup polling during the previous four weeks.

The Gallup weekly approval rating tracker showed that Trump's approval rating dipped to 40 percent for the week ending on Sunday. Fifty-four percent of Americans now disapprove of the president's job performance, according to the poll."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 31, 2018, 06:15:13 PM
It looks likes Trump's plan to end birthright citizenship will likely increase the number of seat that the Democrats win in the House:

Title: "Trump surprise rattles GOP in final stretch"

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/413980-trump-surprise-rattles-gop-in-final-stretch

Extract: "President Trump’s plan to end birthright citizenship has tossed a grenade into the final stretch of the midterm elections, roiling centrist Republicans and further endangering a House majority already at risk of slipping away."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 31, 2018, 07:33:01 PM
Trump is taking some of his midterm campaign rhetoric directly from the KKK playbook.  This will cost the GOP some more House seats:

Title: "David Duke Godson Calls Trump's Birthright Citizenship Removal Plan 'Goal of White Nationalists'"

https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-birthright-citizenship-removal-plan-goal-white-nationalists-decades-1194690

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 31, 2018, 07:35:46 PM
Even some Fox News hosts think that Trump's midterm campaign rhetoric has gone too far:

Title: "'It's disturbing': Fox News host slams Trump's anti-media rhetoric"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/31/fox-news-martha-maccallum-trump-949481
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 31, 2018, 07:40:47 PM
Even Paul Ryan thinks that Trump's midterm campaign rhetoric has gone too far; which will likely cost the GOP some moderate votes:

Title: "Ryan at odds with Trump on birthright citizenship"

https://wcyb.com/news/connect-to-congress/ryan-at-odds-with-trump-on-birthright-citizenship

Extract: "House Speaker Paul Ryan said Tuesday President Donald Trump can't end birthright citizenship on his own."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 31, 2018, 07:59:41 PM
The Bloomberg editorial board makes the case for a change to a Democratic Congress this November. Any patriot who cares about checks and balances will vote for a Democratic Congress this November.

Title: "Trump Makes the Case for a Democratic Congress"

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-10-31/michael-bloomberg-trump-makes-case-for-democrats-in-congress

Extract: "His anti-immigration ploys show the need for checks and balances."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 31, 2018, 08:08:56 PM
I copied the Fox News Hose Power Rankings (https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018#) a few times this election season (NH) fall.  Some snapshots of their rankings:

Date   Likely D  Lean D  Tossup  Lean R  Likely R
Sep17   189        13          30        36        167
Oct19    191        16          31        26        171
Oct31    192        15          29        33        166

Dems are basically up 5 seats over these past 6 weeks, and Repubs are basically down 4 seats.  I'd rather have the D-team's trajectory right now!
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 31, 2018, 08:33:27 PM
Just a reminder that Gallup's most recent poll shows Trump's approval rating dropped 4 points in one week:

Title: "Poll: Trump approval drops 4 points in a week"

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/413671-poll-trump-approval-drops-four-points-in-a-week

Extract: "President Trump's approval rating dropped 4 points last week, essentially erasing the gains he made in Gallup polling during the previous four weeks.

The Gallup weekly approval rating tracker showed that Trump's approval rating dipped to 40 percent for the week ending on Sunday. Fifty-four percent of Americans now disapprove of the president's job performance, according to the poll."

Looking at the long term Gallup polling, his numbers are basically unchanged singe April.  His approval was below 40% for much of the previous year, but edged above that six months ago.  Looking at a week to week change and making a trajectory claim is like looking at the Arctic sea minimum in subsequent years and making a similar claim.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/203207/trump-job-approval-weekly.aspx?version=print
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 31, 2018, 08:42:35 PM
Quote
Looking at a week to week change and making a trajectory claim is like looking at the Arctic sea minimum in subsequent years and making a similar claim.
I think it more like looking at regional ASI area or extent data over a few weeks and preferring one set of data (as to its suggested projected outcome) over another. 
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 31, 2018, 08:52:46 PM
I know 538 uses fund raising as a metric.  They used it in 2016 when Clinton held a 3:1 advantage, and we know how that turned out.  I am just not sold on their metrics or optimism.  Maybe it just caution after being burned.

538's forecast wasn't so bad in comparison to others.
Quote
Just last week, Nate Silver’s polls-only forecast gave Hillary Clinton an overwhelming 85 percent chance of winning. But as of Thursday morning, her odds have fallen down to 66.9 percent — suggesting that while Donald Trump is still the underdog, there’s a one-in-three shot he’ll end up the next president. Liberals have tried to comfort themselves with the knowledge that FiveThirtyEight is an outlier among the six major forecasts, and that the other five give Trump between a 16 percent and a sub-1 percent chance of winning.
...
So how likely is it that there will be either a polling error (either nationwide or in enough states to tip the scale) or a last-minute swing the polls simply don’t have time to pick up on (again, either nationwide or in enough key states)? All the other models are essentially telling us that given the data we have, these scenarios are very unlikely to transpire — but Silver’s is warning not to count it out.
...
Other models are leaning more towards assuming that with so much polling in so many states showing Clinton narrowly ahead, it’s highly unlikely that they’ll all be wrong in the same way. But Silver’s model thinks a “miss” in national polling would likely be reflected in swing states too — even states that have been considered part of Clinton’s “firewall” up until now.
https://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast (https://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast)

On Nov. 8, 2016, 538 predicted Clinton would win the electoral college 303-235 (with no tossups), with her narrowly winning FL, NC, and likely winning PA, MI, and WI.  They also had Trump narrowly winning in AZ and OH.    Conversely, RCP had it Clinton 272-266, with Trump narrowly winning FL and NC.  RCP had PA a much closer race than 538.  I still question the metrics that Nate Silvers uses in adjusting his polling numbers.  They were wrong in 2016.  Will they be wrong again in 2018?
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on October 31, 2018, 09:03:38 PM
In 2016 USC/LA Times had Trump beating Clinton.  In fact, they had that outcome for MANY MONTHS BEFORE the election.

Fast forward to today and USC/LA Times have the “generic Congressional ballot” as Dems 57% and Republicans 40%?

Will USC/LA Times be right again?
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 01, 2018, 05:24:45 PM
While fearmongering is staple of GOP campaigning, the American voters can show their disdain for ads by voting for a blue wave:

Title: "Trump Compares Migrants In Caravan To Cop Killer In Fearmongering Ad"

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-ad-undocumented-immigrants-midterms_us_5bdac1a8e4b019a7ab5a5f45

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 01, 2018, 05:41:57 PM
The project surge of youth voting will likely contribute to the coming blue wave:

Title: "A horde of millennials are running for office"

https://www.axios.com/millennials-poised-to-shake-up-state-legislatures-next-year-5d0a5205-d229-4eba-8d72-97bf90923327.html

Extract: "Why it matters: Numerous studies signal a surge of youth voting in next Tuesday's midterm elections. But what has been less apparent is that millennials — as a group holding very different views by and large from older Americans — may significantly increase their seats in state legislatures and Congress.

•   About 700 millennial candidates are running in the approximately 6,000 state legislative races.
•   Most are Democrats."

Edit, see also:

Title: "Young Americans signal record turnout for midterm elections, reject Trump and the GOP: Poll"

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/01/young-americans-signal-record-midterm-turnout-reject-trump-gop-poll.html
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 01, 2018, 06:59:34 PM
Per my definition of a blue wave (a net change of at least 34 House seats), the linked Cook Political Report indicates that the Democrats are currently on track to realize this metric:

Title: "Cook Political Report changes a midterm projection — and it’s not good for Republicans"

https://www.theblaze.com/news/2018/10/31/cook-political-report-changes-a-midterm-projection-and-its-not-good-for-republicans

Extract: "“Based on the past week’s evidence, we’re revising our House outlook to a Dem gain of 30-40 seats (was 25-35 last month) at @CookPolitical,” Wasserman wrote. “This could change again before Tuesday.”"
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 01, 2018, 07:13:42 PM
Per my definition of a blue wave (a net change of at least 34 House seats), the linked Cook Political Report indicates that the Democrats are currently on track to realize this metric:

Title: "Cook Political Report changes a midterm projection — and it’s not good for Republicans"

https://www.theblaze.com/news/2018/10/31/cook-political-report-changes-a-midterm-projection-and-its-not-good-for-republicans

Extract: "“Based on the past week’s evidence, we’re revising our House outlook to a Dem gain of 30-40 seats (was 25-35 last month) at @CookPolitical,” Wasserman wrote. “This could change again before Tuesday.”"

I would call that a small wave, slightly more than a ripple.  A truly blue wave would involve gaining Senate seats, although that is becoming increasingly unlikely.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on November 01, 2018, 07:32:42 PM
We should be able to glean a lot from the first wave of voting states on the east coast come Tuesday night:  New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, Virginia, Georgia, Florida, etc.

Should give us a good reading as to how the House is going to go.  As far as the “inside straight” of the Senate ..... the only thing we’ll know early is whether the door is already slammed shut on the Dems taking back the Senate.  Will the door be shut early, or will Dem’s have an “outsized night” and keep us awake until late?
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 01, 2018, 08:45:23 PM
Steve King (R) appears to be spiraling towards the drain:

Title: "Steve King's opponent sees massive fundraising spike amid controversies"

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/414367-steve-kings-opponent-sees-massive-fundraising-spike-amid-controversies

Extract: "GOP Rep. Steve King’s Democratic opponent has reportedly seen a massive fundraising spike over the past two days as controversy swirls around the Iowa incumbent.

J.D. Scholten, a former professional baseball player running to unseat the lawmaker, raised more than $641,000 over Tuesday and Wednesday, his campaign told Politico.

The haul comes as King faces backlash over his comments about immigration and links to white nationalist groups."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 01, 2018, 08:57:23 PM
Unless one thinks that the majority of US voters are bigots, then one should agree with the linked op/ed that "… there’s more evidence that this stuff hurts Trump’s party than that it helps."

Title: "Trump’s Bigotry Isn’t Working"

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-11-01/trump-s-bigotry-isn-t-working

Extract: "There’s no evidence that the president’s racist rhetoric is actually helping his party win votes."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 02, 2018, 06:36:11 AM
Democrats, are you going to let Donald Trump tell you that you are dead, or are you going to make him and the GOP pay a price for their fearmongering?

Title: "Trump declares 'the blue wave is dead'"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/01/trump-2018-midterm-blue-wave-dead-953092

Extract: "President Donald Trump insisted on Wednesday that the Democratic Party does not have the midterm momentum that its leaders have claimed, proclaiming that “the blue wave is dead.”"

&

Title: "Trump's immigration obsession could backfire, some Republicans fear"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/01/trump-immigration-migrant-caravan-2018-elections-republican-party-956659

Extracts: "Ignoring pleas for a closing focus on the economy, Trump embraces a fiery finale that has distressed vulnerable GOP candidates.

Operating under the assumption that talking tough on immigration can energize enough Republicans to stymie a “blue wave” of Democratic midterm voters, Trump has spent the past week unveiling restrictive immigration policies at a dizzying pace and making erroneous declarations about a caravan of Central American migrants."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 02, 2018, 06:58:11 AM
This could give Sinema up to a 6% boost in her fight for one of Arizona's Senate seats:

Title: "Sinema endorsed by Green Party Senate candidate"

https://www.12news.com/article/news/politics/sinema-endorsed-by-green-party-senate-candidate/75-0fd3f6c5-2792-4dfa-b48f-094598f6ba32

Extract: "The Green Party candidate, political newcomer Angela Green, has garnered up to 6 percent of the vote in recent polls. Polling averages show McSally and Sinema separated by a point or two."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on November 02, 2018, 12:55:24 PM
Four minutes (Days) left in the game.  Time for a full court press.  Talk to your co-workers today/Monday/Tuesday and get them out to VOTE BLUE.

Talk to your friends and family over the next 4 days and do the same.

Budmantis ..... Florida is CRUCIAL.  Go Blue ...
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on November 02, 2018, 01:25:42 PM
If you folks get a chance to visit Alyse Galvin’s website .... I encourage you to do so.  She is an Independent running for the single House seat in Alaska.

Great background .... and if you read the info about her kids you will be gobsmacked in a very good way.  RealClearPolitics has her listed as a Democrat ... but she is an Independent, and is NOT taking PAC money.

https://www.alyse4alaska.com/meet-alyse/
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on November 02, 2018, 01:52:59 PM
We all have choices in life.  We can eat crappy food or food that is good for you.  We also choose who we associate with.

Ted Cruz has chosen to associate with a racist ...... Steve King of Iowa.  And Cruz isn't moving away from him.

Getting a racist like Steve King out of Congress would be a BIG STEP in the right direction for Congress.  Getting a supporter of his like Ted Cruz out of Congress ..... likewise ..... would be another step in the right direction to bringing CIVILITY back to Congress.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/11/01/final-days-re-election-bid-ted-cruz-haunted-alliance-steve-king/
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 02, 2018, 02:54:52 PM
This could give Sinema up to a 6% boost in her fight for one of Arizona's Senate seats:

Title: "Sinema endorsed by Green Party Senate candidate"

https://www.12news.com/article/news/politics/sinema-endorsed-by-green-party-senate-candidate/75-0fd3f6c5-2792-4dfa-b48f-094598f6ba32

Extract: "The Green Party candidate, political newcomer Angela Green, has garnered up to 6 percent of the vote in recent polls. Polling averages show McSally and Sinema separated by a point or two."

While this will definitely not hurt her, I do not know how much it will help.  The only poll I saw that had her at 6% was the NBC poll, and when they dropped to a two-person race, only half of her supporters opted for Sinema?  The most recent FOX and CBS polls had her at 3%, while CNN and ABC had her at 1%.  Still, in a race this close, 1 or 2% may make a difference.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 02, 2018, 05:12:05 PM
Per my definition of a blue wave (a net change of at least 34 House seats), the linked Cook Political Report indicates that the Democrats are currently on track to realize this metric:

Title: "Cook Political Report changes a midterm projection — and it’s not good for Republicans"

https://www.theblaze.com/news/2018/10/31/cook-political-report-changes-a-midterm-projection-and-its-not-good-for-republicans

Extract: "“Based on the past week’s evidence, we’re revising our House outlook to a Dem gain of 30-40 seats (was 25-35 last month) at @CookPolitical,” Wasserman wrote. “This could change again before Tuesday.”"

I would call that a small wave, slightly more than a ripple.  A truly blue wave would involve gaining Senate seats, although that is becoming increasingly unlikely.

Let me remind posters here that last week Carl Bernstein (one of the heroes of Watergate) stated that: "I talked to people … in touch with the White House on Friday who believe that if the congressional midterms are very close and the Democrats were to win by five or seven seats, that Trump was already talking about how to throw legal challenges into the courts, sow confusion, declare a victory, actually, and say that the election's been illegitimate."  So my ten seat margin of control of the House has meaning with regards to reigning in Trump's Machiavellian plans:

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-2018-election-illegitimate-democrats-take-control-congress-carl-1181683
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 02, 2018, 10:09:53 PM
Per my definition of a blue wave (a net change of at least 34 House seats), the linked Cook Political Report indicates that the Democrats are currently on track to realize this metric:

Title: "Cook Political Report changes a midterm projection — and it’s not good for Republicans"

https://www.theblaze.com/news/2018/10/31/cook-political-report-changes-a-midterm-projection-and-its-not-good-for-republicans

Extract: "“Based on the past week’s evidence, we’re revising our House outlook to a Dem gain of 30-40 seats (was 25-35 last month) at @CookPolitical,” Wasserman wrote. “This could change again before Tuesday.”"

I would call that a small wave, slightly more than a ripple.  A truly blue wave would involve gaining Senate seats, although that is becoming increasingly unlikely.

Let me remind posters here that last week Carl Bernstein (one of the heroes of Watergate) stated that: "I talked to people … in touch with the White House on Friday who believe that if the congressional midterms are very close and the Democrats were to win by five or seven seats, that Trump was already talking about how to throw legal challenges into the courts, sow confusion, declare a victory, actually, and say that the election's been illegitimate."  So my ten seat margin of control of the House has meaning with regards to reigning in Trump's Machiavellian plans:

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-2018-election-illegitimate-democrats-take-control-congress-carl-1181683

Personally, I prefer not to spread this type of gossip.  This is more suitable for the tabloids.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 03, 2018, 01:01:54 AM
Personally, I prefer not to spread this type of gossip.  This is more suitable for the tabloids.

I think that Donald Trump's racist language is more suitable for the tabloids, rather than the words of a journalistic hero like Carl Bernstein:

Title: "Michael Cohen Says Trump Repeatedly Used Racist Language Before His Presidency"

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/11/michael-cohen-trump-racist-language

Extract: "As he awaits sentencing, Trump’s former lawyer says that he wants to clear his conscience and warn voters about what he sees as the president’s true nature in advance of the midterm elections."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 03, 2018, 01:14:08 AM
Having the Senate Intelligence Committee investigating the NRA's Russian connections cannot be good news for GOP candidates in the midterms:

Title: "Senate Intelligence Wants Documents on NRA’s Russia Trip"

https://www.thedailybeast.com/senate-intelligence-wants-documents-on-nras-russia-trip?ref=home

Extract: "The Senate intelligence committee has asked the National Rifle Association to provide documents on its connections to Russia—including documents related to a 2015 trip some of its top leaders made to Moscow. That’s according to two sources briefed on the committee’s activities."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on November 03, 2018, 02:52:12 AM
About 700 millennial candidates are running in the approximately 6,000 state legislative races.
•   Most are Democrats."
 "Young Americans signal record turnout for midterm elections, reject Trump and the GOP:

From another thread:
In this non-presidential mid-term election, to-date early voting is 29 million, as compared to 2014 to-date early voting non-presidential mid-term election participation of...... 16 million. Of the numerous contentious (& close) state races around the country, early voting participation by women far out-strip men. Georgia has women leading men in early voting by 12 %.
///////
Gloria Steinem said, "Hope is a form of planning".
//////
Republican John Warner said of "don'T rump", "He has no inner compass at all".
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on November 03, 2018, 10:03:34 AM
..snip

Let me remind posters here that last week Carl Bernstein (one of the heroes of Watergate) stated that: "I talked to people … in touch with the White House on Friday who believe that if the congressional midterms are very close and the Democrats were to win by five or seven seats, that Trump was already talking about how to throw legal challenges into the courts, sow confusion, declare a victory, actually, and say that the election's been illegitimate." So my ten seat margin of control of the House has meaning with regards to reigning in Trump's Machiavellian plans:

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-2018-election-illegitimate-democrats-take-control-congress-carl-1181683

This sounds like a repeat of 2016. Look who declared the election not legitimate in the end. Hilarious. There is no doubt in my mind that if the Dem's do not win the house they WILL declare "problems" in the election once a again.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 03, 2018, 03:22:15 PM
This sounds like a repeat of 2016. Look who declared the election not legitimate in the end. Hilarious. There is no doubt in my mind that if the Dem's do not win the house they WILL declare "problems" in the election once a again.

Even after he won the 2016 presidential election, Trump created a voter fraud commission, likely in an attempt to suppress voting in 2018:

Title: "Trump's voter fraud commission appears to have gone dark"

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/11/03/trump-voter-fraud-election-commission-appears-have-gone-dark/827628001/
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on November 04, 2018, 04:33:50 AM
In this non-presidential mid-term election, to-date early voting is 29 million, as compared to 2014 to-date early voting non-presidential mid-term election participation of...... 16 million. Of the numerous contentious (& close) state races around the country, early voting participation by women far out-strip men. Georgia has women leading men in early voting by 12 %.
Update: In this non-presidential mid-term election, to-date early voting is 39 million, as compared to 2014 to-date early voting non-presidential mid-term election participation of...... 22 million.
In one day, this year's to-date "extra" participation over 2014, jumped 4 million voters. Yeah, one day---- jumped from 13 million extra to 17 million extra voters.
More news:
Many tens of thousands of Puerto Rican American citizens moved to the U.S., after Hurricane Maria flattened the country.....& "don'T rump" turned his back on the U.S. territory. Many Puerto Ricans are living in closely contested states, like Florida..... & are voting now.   


Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 04, 2018, 07:45:49 AM
The three most recent polls unanimously show that the Democrats will win control of the House:

Title: "Last minute midterm data unanimously shows Democrats winning the House"

https://www.axios.com/midterm-data-unanimously-shows-democrats-winning-the-house-be187a87-3dd9-4ad3-ac9c-16216cf3b9df.html

Extract: "The latest race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball from the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, and FiveThirtyEight all show Democrats on the cusp of winning the House, with Republicans likely to hold the Senate (and even pick up a seat or two)."

see also:

Title: "The gender gap in 2018"

https://www.axios.com/the-gender-gap-in-2018-6004e17d-0943-43ae-88b7-e8e3b8793a03.html
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 04, 2018, 08:11:46 AM
Today's FiveThirtyEight forecast gives the Democrats a 50-50 chance of gaining 38 seats:

Title: "Forecasting the race for the House"

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on November 04, 2018, 10:06:05 AM
I can't wait till Tuesday at midnight when the results are flowing in. It might be as fun as 2016 !
(or I'll have to eat my hat and admit defeat of my beliefs.)
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on November 04, 2018, 10:13:59 AM
This sounds like a repeat of 2016. Look who declared the election not legitimate in the end. Hilarious. There is no doubt in my mind that if the Dem's do not win the house they WILL declare "problems" in the election once a again.

Even after he won the 2016 presidential election, Trump created a voter fraud commission, likely in an attempt to suppress voting in 2018:

Title: "Trump's voter fraud commission appears to have gone dark"

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/11/03/trump-voter-fraud-election-commission-appears-have-gone-dark/827628001/

Where does that come from? Personal opinion?  It just as likely that he(or whoever) saw that it's a waste of time, that there wasn't the fraud he expected to find and just let it go.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on November 05, 2018, 02:47:09 PM
Crunch time.  The Dem’s still have a very real, although slim, chance at taking back the Senate.

If we are to believe the 538 prognostication it requires the Dems to do the following:

1). Take the two “tossup states” of Arizona and Nevada

2). Take ONE of the “Likely Republican” states of Tennessee, Texas, and North Dakota.  I DONT include Mississippi in this group (although 538.com DOES).  Note that a poll out this am has Tennessee TIED (can you say Taylor Swift?).

3). Win the 4 states that are “Lean Democrat” of Indiana, Florida, Missouri, and Montana.

Clearly that is quite the “gauntlet” for the Dems to run ... and there are several states where they could likely be tripped up.  BUT .... there IS a possibility, as thin as it might be (15% according to 538.com).

Of the 3 states that the Dems have to steal ONE from ... as of this morning it looks like it would be Tennessee ..... followed by Texas ..... with North Dakota being the least likely.

“But you say there is a chance ......”
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 05, 2018, 04:14:04 PM
Crunch time.  The Dem’s still have a very real, although slim, chance at taking back the Senate.

If we are to believe the 538 prognostication it requires the Dems to do the following:

1). Take the two “tossup states” of Arizona and Nevada

2). Take ONE of the “Likely Republican” states of Tennessee, Texas, and North Dakota.  I DONT include Mississippi in this group (although 538.com DOES).  Note that a poll out this am has Tennessee TIED (can you say Taylor Swift?).

3). Win the 4 states that are “Lean Democrat” of Indiana, Florida, Missouri, and Montana.

Clearly that is quite the “gauntlet” for the Dems to run ... and there are several states where they could likely be tripped up.  BUT .... there IS a possibility, as thin as it might be (15% according to 538.com).

Of the 3 states that the Dems have to steal ONE from ... as of this morning it looks like it would be Tennessee ..... followed by Texas ..... with North Dakota being the least likely.

“But you say there is a chance ......”

That is quite the daunting task.  Of your list, obviously number 3 has the best chance of occurring.  However, even that has less than a 50:50 probability, largely due to Missouri.  538 is the only pundit to have it tilting blue.  Most have it as a pure tossup, with some tilting red.  Montana looks like the surest of the group.  Trump and Pence are really pushing the voters in Indiana, and Florida is never an easy guess.

Number one on your list is possible.  Ironically, the red state (AZ) appears to be tilting blue, while the blue state (NV) appears to tilting red.  Still anybody's guess in these two.

The chances of number 2 occurring appear to be dwindling.  The tide has turned redder in all three states, making any Democratic victory look bleak. 

Granted, as you say, there is a chance.  However, I feel that the best the Dems can hope for is a 50:50 tie.  More likely the GOP will add a seat or more.

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 05, 2018, 04:47:22 PM
The blue wave is about to reach the beach for the House of Representatives:

Title: "New polls: Democrats favored to win House control"

https://www.axios.com/new-polls-democrats-favored-to-win-house-control-4d6c6e79-1b3c-4d53-9b78-477f30f6c2af.html?utm_source=midterms_ts

Extract: "In the final days before Tuesday’s midterm elections, two new polls, one from the Washington Post and ABC News and another from the Wall Street Journal and NBC News, found that most voters want Democrats to take control of the House.

Key findings: Both polls found that voters favor Democratic House candidates over Republicans 50% to 43%."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 05, 2018, 10:30:38 PM
The blue wave is about to reach the beach for the House of Representatives:

Title: "New polls: Democrats favored to win House control"

https://www.axios.com/new-polls-democrats-favored-to-win-house-control-4d6c6e79-1b3c-4d53-9b78-477f30f6c2af.html?utm_source=midterms_ts

Extract: "In the final days before Tuesday’s midterm elections, two new polls, one from the Washington Post and ABC News and another from the Wall Street Journal and NBC News, found that most voters want Democrats to take control of the House.

Key findings: Both polls found that voters favor Democratic House candidates over Republicans 50% to 43%."

But then they hedged their bets at the end, saying that the midterms are typically a referendum on the sitting president and
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 05, 2018, 11:07:42 PM
It will be interesting to see if the Democrats surge in the final batch of polls, is reflected in Senate seat votes on Tuesday:

Title: "Democrats see late surge in Senate battlegrounds"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/05/trump-close-out-midterm-961507

Extract: "A final batch of polls provided signs of late momentum for Democrats in the battle for the Senate, with surveys showing their candidates leading in two battleground races and decisively ahead in New Jersey."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 05, 2018, 11:17:33 PM
It appears that the House Republicans are in panic mode before the midterms:

Title: "'Trump has hijacked the election': House Republicans in panic mode"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/04/trump-2018-elections-midterms-republicans-immigration-960748

Extract: "Worries deepen that Trump's charged immigration rhetoric will cost the GOP more seats."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on November 05, 2018, 11:51:57 PM
I hope some of you had the chance to see the History Channel special on WaterGate.  The third and final sequence was last night ..... Part III last night and part II on Saturday night are good “primers” for where we are now ... and where we are going.

The elections tomorrow will certainly play a part in where we are going AND at what speed.

If Donnie loses the House tomorrow, it will be a significant blow.  If he loses the Senate as well, he ... as well as the Republican Party will be swimming with the sharks.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 06, 2018, 02:11:34 PM
I don’t see it either, and expect a similar 1-3 seat GOP pickup.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on November 06, 2018, 03:12:24 PM
It appears that the House Republicans are in panic mode before the midterms:

Title: "'Trump has hijacked the election': House Republicans in panic mode"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/04/trump-2018-elections-midterms-republicans-immigration-960748

Extract: "Worries deepen that Trump's charged immigration rhetoric will cost the GOP more seats."

Not so sure this is true (unnamed GOP'ers mostly) but - Oh , this will be funny when the"cost" turns out to be a benefit.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on November 06, 2018, 03:32:44 PM
Interesting numbers.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 06, 2018, 04:15:47 PM
The USA Today has had enough with Trump's lap dogs in Congress and encourage voters to throw them out of office:

Title: "USA Today: ‘Vote out Donald Trump's lap dogs’"

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/415120-usa-today-vote-out-donald-trumps-lap-dogs

Extract: "In an editorial published on Election Day, USA Today urged voters to elect "Trump's lap dogs" out of office.

The piece said Republicans in Congress had failed to act as a check on President Trump, and called on voters to elect Democrats.

It said the "current GOP-controlled House and Senate" had been "little but obedient lap dogs to President Donald Trump."

"This would be troubling under any circumstances. But it is especially so now with a president who careens from gross incompetence to troubling executive overreach; who tolerates, even encourages, corrupt behavior; and who tries to govern through a toxic mix of self-adulation, divisive rhetoric, fear-mongering, outright lies and juvenile name-calling.""


See also:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/hopeful-signs-for-democrats-to-score-a-midterms-victory-against-trump
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 06, 2018, 04:29:06 PM
The best way to fight Trump's efforts to suppress voting, is 'to turn out and make yourself heard':

Title: "Without evidence, Trump and Sessions warn of voter fraud in Tuesday's elections"

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/article/Without-evidence-Trump-and-Sessions-warn-of-13365354.php

Extract: " President Donald Trump and Attorney General Jeff Sessions on Monday issued strong warnings about the threat of voter fraud in Tuesday's elections, echoing the president's baseless claims that massive voter fraud marred his 2016 election and prompting accusations that his administration is trying to intimidate voters.

Said Vance, of Common Cause: "To turn out and make yourself heard is the primary weapon to combat these attempts to suppress the vote.""
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 06, 2018, 04:44:05 PM
The Midwest is likely going to add to the blue wave today:

Title: "Trump’s GOP Braces for Midwest Massacre "

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/11/06/2018-election-trump-gop-midwest-222219

Extract: "A razor-thin margin in the Rust Belt gave the president his victory in 2016. But Democrats are rebuilding their vaunted ‘Blue Wall’ in 2018.

Tuesday’s elections mark the beginning of the 2020 campaign. And for all the focus on suburbanites fleeing the GOP, a blue wave in the Midwest would be indicative of Trump’s base turning against his Republican Party.

“There’s a lot of talk about these swing House districts that are disproportionately suburban, but the polls are showing similar movement among the white-working class,” said Grossman, the MSU political scientist. “When you have states like Ohio and Iowa that swung very strongly toward Trump, and this year they are seeing Democratic voters returning to the fold, those Democratic gains would be disproportionately among the white working class.”"
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 06, 2018, 10:42:18 PM
For what it is worth, the FiveThirtyEight House forecast now gives the Democrats a 50-50 chance of gaining 39 seats:
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on November 06, 2018, 10:53:55 PM
Cook Political Report has 75 House races as “competitive.  Of those 75, 70 are Republican House seats now and 5 are currently Democrat.

Races I’m watching closely: Cruz/O’ROURKE, DeSantis/Gillum, Florida AG race ..... Florida and Texas are huge ...... not only for this race, but for years to come .....
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 06, 2018, 11:11:35 PM
Realclearpolitics has moved two Senate races that were previously Democratic leans into the tossup column; Montana and West Virginia.  538 has the Senate 50 to 48 in favor of the GOP with two tossups; Missouri and Nevada.  Politico predicts the Senate goes to the GOP by 50 to 45, with 5 tossups; FL, IN, MO, NV, and AZ.  Larry Sabato has it 52 to 48, with Indiana and Missouri turning red, while Nevada, Arizona, and Florida elect a Democrat. 
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on November 06, 2018, 11:34:36 PM
Early exit poll for this mid-term 2018 election:
54% of voters view the re-pubic-lick-uns unfavorably.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on November 06, 2018, 11:38:38 PM
Early 2018 exit poll, show 47% of voters STRONGLY disagree with "don'T rump".
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on November 06, 2018, 11:41:19 PM
Early 2018 exit poll, shows 48% view Kavanaugh unfavorably, only 43% favorably.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on November 06, 2018, 11:46:35 PM
Early 2018 exit poll, indicates 60% of voters want more gun control, 35% less.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on November 06, 2018, 11:49:42 PM
Early 2018 exit poll, 78% of voters believe more women need to be elected.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on November 06, 2018, 11:51:38 PM
Early 2018 exit poll, 71% of voters believe it is important to elect more minorities.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on November 06, 2018, 11:53:16 PM
Early 2018 exit poll, 77% of voters believe the country is more divided.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 06, 2018, 11:54:33 PM
A midterm youth wave could be good news for the Democrats:

Title: "Young people say they plan to vote at near-historic highs"

https://www.vox.com/2018/10/29/18037916/young-people-vote-harvard-poll-2018-midterms
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on November 06, 2018, 11:56:56 PM
Early 2018 exit poll, 63% of new voters are voting for Democrats.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on November 07, 2018, 12:20:41 AM
Early 2018 exit poll: a full 18% of voters say it is NOT important to vote.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 07, 2018, 12:22:20 AM
If you were a McCain supporter you may want to think about rebuking Team Trump in the 2018 midterms, and vote Democrat:

Title: "Longtime McCain adviser urges people to vote Democrat"

https://www.salon.com/2018/11/06/longtime-mccain-adviser-urges-people-to-vote-democrat/

Extract: "“The bigger the rebuke of Trump the better for the country,” Mark Salter tweeted Tuesday"
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on November 07, 2018, 12:26:50 AM
Early 2018 exit poll, 84% of voters say sexual harassment is serious.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on November 07, 2018, 01:20:51 AM
Early 2018 exit poll: 62% of voters believe jobs do not support a middle-class lifestyle.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2020 Election
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 07, 2018, 09:01:44 AM
Time to change the headline. Sad for America, glad of not living there. Some minor movement to the center right on this election. No true change. Republicans still want mass murderers to kill school children etc. You know the drill.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: RikW on November 07, 2018, 09:43:13 AM
Let's hope for our USA-forum-members that the fact they have to work together will normalize USA-politics a little bit with less mud-throwing etc.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2020 Election
Post by: SteveMDFP on November 07, 2018, 03:39:37 PM
Time to change the headline. Sad for America, glad of not living there. Some minor movement to the center right on this election. No true change. Republicans still want mass murderers to kill school children etc. You know the drill.

Not so bad,  The Dems took the House, which was expected but far from assured.
Dems took a number of governorships, which will be helpful over time in reversing some of the GOP gerrymandering that would have continued to tilt the playing field in future elections.
Races in Florida and Texas were tantalizingly close.  One might say that a loss is still a loss, but I think the closeness will affect how the GOP winners will govern.

Given the remarkable current strength of the US economy right now, the above should be considered surprisingly good.

In 2020, the Repubs will have a harder time defending the Senate.  Trump is very unlikely to win re-election, and Democratic strength in the House will likely grow. 

The only depressing part of the picture is that between now and then Trump will be able to continue packing all the courts with right-wing jurists.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on November 07, 2018, 03:48:04 PM
Democrats won Governorships in two large gerrymandered states last night:  Michigan and Wisconsin.  The effect of re-drawing districts will be felt in future elections.  As well, Democrats did well on the state House & Senate levels gaining significant ground.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 07, 2018, 03:59:07 PM
The Democrats did well in the House, winning 27 seats with several yet to be decided.  They did poorly in the Senate, with a net loss of 2 seats so far, and behind in 3 others (FL, AZ, and MT).  I think both sides will be claiming victory, due to the split decision.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 07, 2018, 04:28:43 PM
The Democrats did well in the House, winning 27 seats with several yet to be decided.
...

Per the attached image, as of 6am ET FiveThirtyEight forecasts that the Democrats will gain 34 House seats, which matches my minimum definition of a blue wave.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on November 07, 2018, 04:33:17 PM
Before the election, the Republicans controlled BOTH houses of Congress.  AFTER the election, Congress is now split.

It’s pretty clear who won last night.  This was NOT a “split decision”.  It was a victory for the Democrat’s .... both on the national AND local levels. 

And the victory will be expanded in the coming months/year as Trump and his administration’s corruption are exposed in the light of day.  Accountability is a bitch.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 07, 2018, 08:22:37 PM
Just for the record:

Title: "Make No Mistake, the Midterms Were a Democratic Victory and a Rebuke of Trump"

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/make-no-mistake-the-midterms-were-a-democratic-victory-and-a-rebuke-of-trump

Extract: "Ever since November, 2016, many people, myself included, have worried about the health of American democracy, and some have speculated that Trump could be the death of it. As long as he remains in office, acting like a mob boss on some days and an arsonist on others, the danger will be there. And the results in the Senate could even embolden him. But at least, on Tuesday, the American people exercised their right to inflict some big defeats on his party. That was a win for democracy and a loss for Trump."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 07, 2018, 08:42:51 PM
The Democrats did well in the House, winning 27 seats with several yet to be decided.
...

Per the attached image, as of 6am ET FiveThirtyEight forecasts that the Democrats will gain 34 House seats, which matches my minimum definition of a blue wave.

Yes, if everyone holds onto the seat in which they are currently leading.  However, that blue wave in the House met up with interference in the Senate, producing a cancellation.  In the House, the Dems gained 34 seats out of 435 elections, or 7.8%.  In the Senate, the Dems lost 3 out of 35 seats or 8.6%.  I would call it a small wave, just because the House flipped.  Interestingly, the House races characterized as tossups split fairly evenly, while the Senate broke for the GOP. 
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on November 07, 2018, 08:59:27 PM
Somebody forgot to mention the flipping of Governorships as well as hundreds of STATE senate and house seats.

This is a MUCH bigger victory for the Dems, and is why Trump just fired Sessions.  Because Trump KNOWS he is guilty, and he knows that any public airing of Trump’s corruption would spell the end of Trump, just as it caused the end of Nixon.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on November 08, 2018, 12:44:20 AM
Early 2018 exit poll, 63% of new voters are voting for Democrats.
Most of my 2018 exit poll information was posted. Not posted was 16% of voters were voting for the first time in 2018, while only 10% of voters were new for the 2016 presidential election.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on November 08, 2018, 04:00:00 AM
Somebody forgot to mention the flipping of Governorships as well as hundreds of STATE senate and house seats.
Rachael Maddox just detailed how "don'T rump" meddled in specific state re-pubic-lick-un congressional primaries & has caused the loss of re-pubic-lick-un seats. In one case, not only was the Senatorial seat lost, but the "don'T rump" meddling has ALSO caused the loss of one of the House seats. It was a comedy of re-pubic-lick-un "don'T rump" incompetence.
Not only have congressional seats switched, BUT "in excess of?" 315 state seats have been switched to democrats. In some states, re-pubic-lick-un super-majorities have gone away, & a number of state re-pubic-lick-un majorities have switched to democrats..... despite 20+ years of re-pubic-lick-un gerrymandering. Several out-right racist & anti-health-care re-pubic-lick-un advocate candidates lost to democrats.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on November 08, 2018, 04:06:29 AM
For the first time, 100 women will be in the House of Representatives..... a small number, but it is.... triple digits! Two yet unconfirmed races have two women each contending for the positions, meaning that at least 102 women WILL sit in the House. Previous female high numbers in the House were only 85. 
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on November 08, 2018, 04:17:45 AM
Now that Sessions is fired & if muscle-bound Whitaker tries any suppression of the Mueller investigation, Robert Mueller will be able to testify before the democratic House of Representatives investigative body AND the beginnings of impeachment will begin..... long too late.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on November 08, 2018, 04:22:35 AM
Not one, but TWO (II) Native Tribe women have been elected to the House of Representatives. Alright!!! A Muslim female has also won a seat in the House. She said not only do immigrants get into the U.S., but they are sent to Congress, also.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on November 08, 2018, 04:31:06 AM
Lawrence O'Donnell said that "don'T rump" was incoherent at times in the White House "shoulder rubbing" with the News Media. At one point, "don'T rump" ordered a reporter's microphone taken away from him. Instead of the usual 6'7' goon tho, a "don'T rump" woman tried to take the mike away..... & failed. It was another failing of "don'T rump". 
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on November 08, 2018, 04:53:03 AM
The tax returns of Nixon were secured & Nixon was found to be a "crook". The House will now have the power(?) to secure "don''T rump" tax returns. "don'T rump" is slipping on poo poo.... of his own making. 

<7 comments in a row, next time make it one long one, or I'm not approving any; N.>
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on November 08, 2018, 08:06:11 AM
The Democrats did well in the House, winning 27 seats with several yet to be decided.
...

Per the attached image, as of 6am ET FiveThirtyEight forecasts that the Democrats will gain 34 House seats, which matches my minimum definition of a blue wave.


VERY minimum- most were saying 38-50. If it was a tie in the house (oops) Senate or no change it might have been fair to call a wave. It was a mini wave but still a win. Let's see what they do with it- although I have an idea- they now have power in the house after 8 long years and want revenge and add in Trump- they will do anything but be a constructive legislator.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on November 08, 2018, 01:12:09 PM
After Trump held his delusional press conference yesterday afternoon where he claimed almost a “total victory” after losing the House to the Democrats and losing badly at the State level .... the Los Angeles Dodgers announced they would also have a press conference where they would discuss their “winning” of the World Series .... which they LOST 4 games to 1 ...... calling it “an almost perfect World Series”.

In other news ..... Orlando, Florida is announcing they have some of the best snow and best downhill skiing that can be found anywhere in the world ..... and Ireland is promoting that they have 300 days of sunshine a year. 😱

Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 08, 2018, 01:29:38 PM
The Democrats did well in the House, winning 27 seats with several yet to be decided.
...

Per the attached image, as of 6am ET FiveThirtyEight forecasts that the Democrats will gain 34 House seats, which matches my minimum definition of a blue wave.


VERY minimum- most were saying 38-50. If it was a tie in the house or no change it might have been fair to call a wave. It was a mini wave but still a win. Let's see what they do with it- although I have an idea- they now have power in the house after 8 long years and want revenge and add in Trump- they will do anything but be a constructive legislator.

Yes, I would call it a mini-wave.  Over the past 40 years, the average midterm loss for the party in the white house has been 21 House seats, so this exceeded the averages.  The Senate losses does put a damper on the situation.  Still, it was significant if for no other reason, the House flipped.  How the Dems react over the next two years may determine their future in 2020.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: NevB on November 08, 2018, 01:53:06 PM
Nice graphic.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dred9wdVYAALh-A.jpg)

There is much more detail here:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/07/us/politics/how-democrats-took-the-house.html (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/07/us/politics/how-democrats-took-the-house.html)

and a summary:

Quote
So how big was the blue wave?
Over all, 2018’s shift to the left was smaller than the one in 2006, the last time the Democrats flipped the House. And it was half the size of the most recent Republican wave in 2010 when districts shifted more than 19 points to the right.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 08, 2018, 05:30:43 PM
Yes, if everyone holds onto the seat in which they are currently leading.  However, that blue wave in the House met up with interference in the Senate, producing a cancellation.  In the House, the Dems gained 34 seats out of 435 elections, or 7.8%.  In the Senate, the Dems lost 3 out of 35 seats or 8.6%.  I would call it a small wave, just because the House flipped.  Interestingly, the House races characterized as tossups split fairly evenly, while the Senate broke for the GOP.

Besides the fact that your percentages of 7.8% vs 8.6% is comparing apples to oranges, I note that the Democrat's winning margin in the popular vote is projected by the New York Times to be about 7 points is very similar to the Republican advantage in 2010, which was seen as a huge wave election.  Thus by GOP-logic the Democrat's 2018 House win was a 'huge wave' victory.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 08, 2018, 06:38:25 PM
Yes, if everyone holds onto the seat in which they are currently leading.  However, that blue wave in the House met up with interference in the Senate, producing a cancellation.  In the House, the Dems gained 34 seats out of 435 elections, or 7.8%.  In the Senate, the Dems lost 3 out of 35 seats or 8.6%.  I would call it a small wave, just because the House flipped.  Interestingly, the House races characterized as tossups split fairly evenly, while the Senate broke for the GOP.

Besides the fact that your percentages of 7.8% vs 8.6% is comparing apples to oranges, I note that the Democrat's winning margin in the popular vote is projected by the New York Times to be about 7 points is very similar to the Republican advantage in 2010, which was seen as a huge wave election.  Thus by GOP-logic the Democrat's 2018 House win was a 'huge wave' victory.

Yes, the two chambers are really different fruits.  However, your comparison between yesterday and 2010 is even further off.  The GOP won 64 seats!  Than is about twice the what the Democrats won, and even more dramatic when you consider that the average gain in the midterms is 22 seats by the party out of power.  In the 2010, the GOP gained 6 Senate seats.
 The average gain in the Senate is 4 seats, so a loss of 3 is significant, and once again, cannot compare to 2010.  It was also the worst showing by the party out of power since 1934.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 08, 2018, 06:44:45 PM
The GOP won 64 seats!

Your talking about seats assigned under a system rigged with voter suppression and gerrymandering, while I am talking about total votes; which better reflects the will of the people (which may rebuke Trump in 2020).
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Buddy on November 09, 2018, 02:30:19 AM
More and more seats keep slipping away from Donnie.  Arizona Senate race is still close ... but now the Democrat is ahead by about 9,000 votes.  And in Florida ... Republican Rick “Medicare Fraud” Scott is now only ahead by 15,000 votes.  I would give my right testicle for Rick Scott to lose in Florida.

I’m not holding my breath on Florida ..... BUT .... it would be fantastic if Nelson would be able to beat Rick Scott.

In the House .... there are about 11 seats still not decided, but Democrat’s are likely to win a majority of those.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 09, 2018, 02:52:43 AM
The GOP won 64 seats!

Your talking about seats assigned under a system rigged with voter suppression and gerrymandering, while I am talking about total votes; which better reflects the will of the people (which may rebuke Trump in 2020).

Yet, the system has not changed over time.  If anything, there is less today than in the past.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on November 09, 2018, 05:02:44 AM
[Neven wrote:.....7 comments in a row, next time make it one long one, or I'm not approving any; N. [/quote]

litesong wrote: I posted as I saw the early exit polls appear on the TV. I thought my posts would be intermixed with others' election observations, like shuffling cards. Belatedly, I was surprised no one else was posting their own election observations. It is only because others weren't posting, that my posts were together.
I'm glad you thought my information marvelous enough to post. 

<Fair enough; N.>
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on November 09, 2018, 08:32:00 AM
...snip

I’m not holding my breath on Florida ..... BUT .... it would be fantastic if Nelson would be able to beat Rick Scott.

In the House .... there are about 11 seats still not decided, but Democrat’s are likely to win a majority of those.

Florida,florida-  how come they can't get their election shit together after all these years- you would think that after Bush/Gore they would fix it...but no.

In the house there are now 9 and 7 are probably GOP- so that gives Dem's +12.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 09, 2018, 01:44:11 PM
...snip

I’m not holding my breath on Florida ..... BUT .... it would be fantastic if Nelson would be able to beat Rick Scott.

In the House .... there are about 11 seats still not decided, but Democrat’s are likely to win a majority of those.


Florida,florida-  how come they can't get their election shit together after all these years- you would think that after Bush/Gore they would fix it...but no.

In the house there are now 9 and 7 are probably GOP- so that gives Dem's +12.

Florida has a long, sordid history when it comes to elections.  The 2000 election was not even the most corrupt.  That distinction goes to the Miami mayoral race, which a judge threw out due to fraud.  When it comes to election fraud, Florida leads the way - and not in a good way.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 09, 2018, 07:06:16 PM
'Always look on the bright side of life …':

Title: "Democrats could win 40 House seats, the most since Watergate"

https://www.axios.com/democrats-2018-midterm-elections-house-congress-20ad294d-c608-4f70-af89-97d683757ed0.html

Extract: "Democrats have won at least 33 seats, but they look poised to win closer to 40 — there are 13 races that are either not called or too close to call, and Democrats have a solid chance of winning seven of those.

Why it matters: We're officially in "blue wave" territory. Even if Democrats didn't win any additional House seats, they've already won the most number of seats since Watergate, when the party picked up 48 seats in 1974."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 10, 2018, 12:07:18 AM
..snip

Let me remind posters here that last week Carl Bernstein (one of the heroes of Watergate) stated that: "I talked to people … in touch with the White House on Friday who believe that if the congressional midterms are very close and the Democrats were to win by five or seven seats, that Trump was already talking about how to throw legal challenges into the courts, sow confusion, declare a victory, actually, and say that the election's been illegitimate." So my ten seat margin of control of the House has meaning with regards to reigning in Trump's Machiavellian plans:

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-2018-election-illegitimate-democrats-take-control-congress-carl-1181683

This sounds like a repeat of 2016. Look who declared the election not legitimate in the end. Hilarious. There is no doubt in my mind that if the Dem's do not win the house they WILL declare "problems" in the election once a again.

It looks like Carl knew exactly what he was talking about:

Title: "Trump, without evidence, accuses Florida Democrats of rigging elections"

https://www.axios.com/trump-midterms-2018-florida-election-andrew-gillum-recount-ac50bc6c-5f42-4a14-889f-9509581e6f64.html

Extract: "President Trump is accusing Florida Democrats of attempting to rig the Senate and Governor elections in favor of gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum and incumbent Senator Bill Nelson as the races inch closer to recounts.

Why it matters: Despite his claims, the president has presented no evidence that officials are attempting to rig the election in favor of Democratic candidates. Rick Scott, the Republican Senate candidate, is suing Broward County's supervisor of elections and accusing officials of withholding information on the number of outstanding ballots in the Senate race. Under state law, a recount is required when the winning margin is within .5% or less. Gillum is currently behind gubernatorial opponent Ron DeSantis by .47% and Nelson is behind Scott by .20% in the Senate race."
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on November 10, 2018, 06:18:44 AM
Florida is the Sodom and Gomorrah of the USA....
So Florida will go up in fire & brimstone like S&G. Will the rising ocean levels be able to put out the fires? Or will the rising seas be too late? 
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: vox_mundi on November 11, 2018, 08:00:14 AM
Dana Rohrabacher, Putin’s favorite Congress member, just lost his House seat 
https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2018/11/10/18071518/midterm-election-results-dana-rohrabacher-russia-putin

California Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, the most pro-Russia Republican in Congress for decades, just lost his seat to Democrat Harley Rouda.

Even Rohrabacher’s own party knows how close he is to Russia. “There’s two people I think Putin pays: Rohrabacher and Trump,” Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy said in 2016. He later claimed it was a joke.

The loss is quite the fall from grace for the 15-term Congress member who was rumored at one point to be under consideration for the role of Trump’s secretary of state.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Neven on November 11, 2018, 09:43:33 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fh-cLKPRJgo
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: mostly_lurking on November 11, 2018, 09:58:23 AM
The comeback is funny but irrelevant to the question...
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on November 11, 2018, 06:07:10 PM
On her Sunday Morning MSNBC program, Joy Reid praised Millenials for raising their voter participation from 17% to 31%. As stated elsewhere in this thread, exit polls indicated that new first-time voters increased their voter participation from 10% in the 2016 presidential elections to 16% in our 2018 elections. 63% of new voters, voted democratic.
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: litesong on November 12, 2018, 03:41:08 AM
Dana Rohrabacher, Putin’s favorite Congress member, just lost his House seat 
https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2018/11/10/18071518/midterm-election-results-dana-rohrabacher-russia-putin
 “There’s two people I think Putin pays: Rohrabacher and Trump,” Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy said in 2016. 
Over a year & a half ago, Rachael Maddow delineated how "don'T rump" white-washed russian billiionaire stealings. Suspect "don'T rump" has white-washed russian money, & simultaneously was bailed out of bankruptcy in the 1990's. There are reasons why "don'T rump" can only borrow from certain foreign banks. If the new democratic House gets hold of tax returns of "don'T rump", more details will fall out of the gunny sack of corruption. 
Title: Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
Post by: Neven on November 12, 2018, 09:29:20 PM
To be continued here (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2446.0.html).