Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Permafrost => Topic started by: bbr2314 on August 17, 2018, 03:06:26 AM

Title: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on August 17, 2018, 03:06:26 AM
I am starting a new thread for this since we are at the dawn of a new freezing season, and snows are now falling once more over the highest latitudes.

I think the main question to ask this winter is, will we see a repeat (or worse) of 2017-2018's anomalies? Besides that, if we see anomalies skyrocket as we did in early 2018, will we see a similar result in the spring of 2019 re: all-time historical record cold across many portions of North America (or elsewhere)?

I would like to begin the discussion with a few key observations.

1) The Bering Sea has been ice-free for more than 365 days across most locations. It has been accumulating heat like never before. In fact, much of it may have become entirely ice-free due to the ongoing situation since 2007-2012 and residual accumulations of oceanic heat.

2) The situation in the High Atlantic is similarly perilous. The ATL front has been at its most-withdrawn ever position this year, and we still have a month of melt season to go. How much additional retreat do we see north of Svalbard, and how anemic of a refreeze will we see this year?

3) The situation in the ATL has been, IMO, partially caused and exacerbated by the extremely early melt-out of Scandinavia (which, combined with the late melt out of Quebec, resulted in forcing of +++anomalies over much of Europe this summer). Will this extra heat mean that refreeze in 2018-19 is even more anemic than what we saw in 2017-18? There is also the heat content in the NW NATL S of the cool pool which has been making its way to the NE NATL in spurts. This will continue arriving through winter.

4) The situation this spring and summer have severely worsened the ATL cool pool E of Quebec and S of Greenland.

And now, for questions.

1) Snows are already falling, or will be imminently, over much of the Canadian shield. Will early snowfalls (assuming they are sustained, and I see no reason they wouldn't be given the "stuck" pattern we are in) allow colder airmasses over Quebec/etc earlier in the season than normal? Will this worsen the cool pool as a result?

2) What happens in the High Arctic if we see early continental albedo anomalies this year, combined with residual oceanic +++anomalies in the Bering, Laptev, and Barentz? Will the dislocation of the cryosphere to more northerly mid-latitudes so early on cause even MORE oceanic heat to be advected north, prolonging the melt season for the High Arctic (or at least delaying refreeze)?

3) What years are the best analogy to our current situation, and based on those, what can we expect moving forward?

Interestingly enough, the closest recent match appears to be 2014. It features a nearly identical pattern of anomalies across the NHEM for the first two weeks of August. In fact, the only difference this year is MORE heat over the High Arctic (it has actually been warmer than 2012 as well, though the overall pattern has been WAY different).

I would argue that the similarity may be due to the Laptev opening so early in both summers. This "highest of latitudes" oceanic ++++anomaly may be the driving factor that forces cold to "stay" in North America vs. giving it more leeway (i.e. the traditional jet), and distributing it across the entire NHEM.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/fxIvuZASEBMVp3gFMl/giphy.gif)

If the summer of 2018 is any indicator, we will see even more blocking than we did in 2014-15. ENSO conditions are somewhat similar but the Arctic is even warmer than that year.  But, the patterns are still fairly similar.

If a similar winter to 14-15 is realized, but with more high latitude blocking in the same regions seen that year, we are likely to realize severe negative temperature departures for DJF across most of North America east of the Rockies. Additionally, Western Europe could also be prone to colder weather than 2014-15, as the residual effects of a colder Quebec / etc = cooler cold pool, cooler cold fronts into W Europe from the NATL. It should be noted that the spring of 2015 saw the development of a major El Nino event simultaneous to severe and enduring -springtime anomalies over my favorite Canadian province. Perhaps this portends another strong ENSO event in 2019, and a similar situation to the spring of 2018 over the same regions previously impacted?

This, funny enough, would also follow the pattern set in 2012 (severe melt year), 2013 and 2014 (relative recoveries but cold winters, and 2015 (severe melt year). 2016 was a severe melt year without major ENSO, 2017 and 2018 are both looking like "relative" recoveries in dubious ENSO waters, while 2019 could be our next equivalent to 2015, meaning both 2019 and 2020 could have bad conditions for preserving sea ice.

Thoughts welcome / criticism & contribution of ideas also welcome, please no personal attacks :)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on August 17, 2018, 10:59:35 PM
There are vast area's in the pasific ocean where the temperature of the water is like 1 to 2 degree C warmer than normal. That should create the conditions for the moisture you need for your snow. Can you tell something about the wind paterns that bring most of the snow to Canada ? Are they the same for the West and the East ?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on August 19, 2018, 02:59:50 PM
When i watch Ventusky, i see that the rain in the US always travels from the west to the east. It enters the US north of California. And than it crosses the entire continent. In the east you have the winds coming from the Gulf of Mexico and than moving North, North-East. And you have the trail the hurricanes (and nor'easters) in general take. So where does the snow in Quebec in general comes from ? The Pacific seems to be warm, the gulf seems to be warm. And the trail of the hurricans over the east coast looks colder than normal. But i think they are going to get a healty dose of snow. And that could slow down the effects of global warming in some locations. Like you say, a higher albedo. And colder winds, more meltwater....... So where does the snow comes from, or is it a mix ? This could be something nice to follow up in the next year.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on August 19, 2018, 09:00:09 PM
When i watch Ventusky, i see that the rain in the US always travels from the west to the east. It enters the US north of California. And than it crosses the entire continent. In the east you have the winds coming from the Gulf of Mexico and than moving North, North-East. And you have the trail the hurricanes (and nor'easters) in general take. So where does the snow in Quebec in general comes from ? The Pacific seems to be warm, the gulf seems to be warm. And the trail of the hurricans over the east coast looks colder than normal. But i think they are going to get a healty dose of snow. And that could slow down the effects of global warming in some locations. Like you say, a higher albedo. And colder winds, more meltwater....... So where does the snow comes from, or is it a mix ? This could be something nice to follow up in the next year.
The air currents to Quebec have increasingly originated in the CAA / Greenland instead of the Pacific. It seems the further N &E you go in North America, the bigger the shift has been (due to +500MB ridging dominating the W). This allows the Polar Jet (or whatever remains of it) to have a far smaller but much more potent circulation (i.e. this summer's 500MB maps), where its reduced size is not accompanied by fewer storms, rather, they just hit much more frequently. You can roll the EURO forward on tropical tidbits and see how the pattern is circulating the same airmasses from Greenland into the srn CAB / CAA, into NWT / Quebec / The Shield, and then off into the ATL where they pick up the +oceanic heat, deposit it into Greenland, and cycle back for the return trip.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Niall Dollard on August 26, 2018, 06:42:39 PM
Alert, Nunavut, is off the mark today. Last week it was only reporting trace amounts of snow, but at 12Z it has 4cm lying.

With temps near or a little below zero, the snow is more of the wet variety. The 4cm coming from a 24hr precip total of 5.7mm.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on August 27, 2018, 01:24:37 PM
Alert, Nunuvat, is off the mark today. Last week it was only reporting trace amounts of snow, but at 12Z it has 4cm lying.

With temps near or a little below zero, the snow is more of the wet variety. The 4cm coming from a 24hr precip total of 5.7mm.
Wikipedia says Alert gets 90 of its precipitation in July and August. That 4 cm (5.7 mm) plus a bit today could be near as dammit it for the year.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on August 27, 2018, 01:39:14 PM
A Misc Obs from Environment Canada - probably about as significant as 4 cm of snow in Alert, but I could not resist.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on August 30, 2018, 07:25:19 PM
Snows are a coming. Will the train run off the tracks this year? The projections for September look very impressive.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on September 02, 2018, 07:13:31 PM
He bbr, a couple months ago you showed a pic. That pic was telling how much melt there was. At that point it was showing 800 km3 in 2 weeks. Is it possible to put a number on it how far that could go ? Like 1200 km3 in 10 days. In general these regions are pretty dry, so probably it want take that much to bring that number up substantial. And could that have an impact on the currents in the Atlantic ? And i hope that's not an stupid question. It's a wall of 800 km long, a km wide and a km thick. That for a large part goes trough the Hudsonbay. And that  Hudsonbay is only 150 meter deep on average. That should create some current.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on September 03, 2018, 09:51:47 AM
Hi Alexander, please bear in mind that not all of that amount goes through Hudson Bay. This was the total drop of SWE over North America. Some of it is evaporated/sublimated, some filters through the ground, and a lot flows in other directions - the Mackenzie watershed goes to the Beaufort Sea, and probably there are other directions too.
Your question can be answered more accurately by flow statistics of the rivers entering Hudson Bay. I'm sure some posters on the forum can provide pointers to such information, if it exists.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on September 03, 2018, 05:35:50 PM
He bbr, a couple months ago you showed a pic. That pic was telling how much melt there was. At that point it was showing 800 km3 in 2 weeks. Is it possible to put a number on it how far that could go ? Like 1200 km3 in 10 days. In general these regions are pretty dry, so probably it want take that much to bring that number up substantial. And could that have an impact on the currents in the Atlantic ? And i hope that's not an stupid question. It's a wall of 800 km long, a km wide and a km thick. That for a large part goes trough the Hudsonbay. And that  Hudsonbay is only 150 meter deep on average. That should create some current.
Methinks a maximum flow of 4 or 5 Km3 per day into a basin of 1.2 million km2 is not going to cause much of a current. The biggest effect is to keep salinity low, meaning easier to re-freeze.

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.492.230&rep=rep1&type=pdf
ABSTRACT
The characteristics and trends of observed river discharge into the Hudson, James, and Ungava Bays (HJUBs) for the period 1964–2000 are investigated. Forty-two rivers with outlets into these bays contribute on average 714 km3  of freshwater to high-latitude oceans. For the
system as a whole, discharge attains an annual peak of 4.2 km3 day on average in mid-June, whereas the minimum of 0.68 km3 day occurs on average during the last week of March. The Nelson River contributes as much as 34% of the daily discharge for the entire system during winter but diminishes in relative importance during spring and summer
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Niall Dollard on September 06, 2018, 11:54:33 PM
The Rutgers figure for nh snowcover for August 2018 was 2.73 million km2.

This is just about the normal for what is the quietest month of the year in terms of lying snow. Just a few extra bits this August over Yukon and western CAA.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 13, 2018, 09:09:44 PM
Let it snow!

By 10/1 it will IMO be much more impressive.

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/na_sce.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 14, 2018, 12:07:03 PM
The latest EURO is absurd.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 14, 2018, 03:20:03 PM
Let it snow!

By 10/1 it will IMO be much more impressive.

Yep.

Early fall snows with large positive anomalies have become a permanent feature caused by open water not previously seen. Rapid melt of the large anomalies in the Spring and Summer due to a warming earth is the other feature we are seeing.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on September 14, 2018, 06:53:19 PM
Is there some historical data available about how much snow there was ?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: karl dubhe2 on September 14, 2018, 07:12:47 PM
It snowed in my city, so obviously that totally disproves that it's still summer.  :)  (bet you thought I'd say something else.)

An early snowfall in Edmonton, Canada usually gets melted away.  It's not the earliest snowfall, but it does give us a chance of having a nice Thanksgiving this October.  (well, maybe.  That's just weather anyhow)  If you go by the really old legends, the turning of the leaves, which might have happened earlier than normal, implies that it'll be a long and cold winter for us.  We shall see.  (or not, if you eat and drink too much over Christmas.)

   
The real 'fun' comes when we get a real snowfall, and the roads weed out the people who remember how to drive in winter from those who've never learned.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 15, 2018, 08:46:59 PM
It snowed in my city, so obviously that totally disproves that it's still summer.  :)  (bet you thought I'd say something else.)

An early snowfall in Edmonton, Canada usually gets melted away.  It's not the earliest snowfall, but it does give us a chance of having a nice Thanksgiving this October.  (well, maybe.  That's just weather anyhow)  If you go by the really old legends, the turning of the leaves, which might have happened earlier than normal, implies that it'll be a long and cold winter for us.  We shall see.  (or not, if you eat and drink too much over Christmas.)

   
The real 'fun' comes when we get a real snowfall, and the roads weed out the people who remember how to drive in winter from those who've never learned.

It looks like it may continue snowing in Edmonton. This September is shaping up to be quite incredible if the D10 forecasts verify (they are all very similar between the models -- COLD and SNOWY across Canada). And this is only to 9/25!

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018091512/fv3p_asnow_namer_41.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018091512/gem_asnow_namer_40.png)

2014 had the highest North American September snowcover anomaly in the Rutgers record back to the late 60s. This year already appears to be something like +1-1.5M KM^2 as of 9/15 (according to the Canadians). By the end of the month we should have a much wider gap vs. avg, in fact, we are already at where normal years are by 10/1.

I think 2018 now has a decent shot at taking the "snowiest September" crown from 2014. If conditions are bad enough by the end of September, I wonder what the odds are that we see an extremely early onset of severe winter weather across much of the continent through October / November, with commensurate absurdity RE: accumulated SWE?

With the conditions as bad as they were this spring, it is somewhat striking we haven't really seen a similarly scoped anomaly in the fall despite greater increasing fall snows (to date, in general). Maybe that is the next absurd thing to happen? It is sensible that springtime would be when anomalies can be greatest for SWE due to accumulated snowfall, but at some point (if we actually are heading towards localized ice age conditions), *if* the snowball is gaining momentum, we could rapidly see September / etc get much snowier as well (?)

This is the first year in the recent past I can recall September getting off to such a running start.

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/na_sce.png)

Volume is also making it onto the charts now. Hoorah!

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/na_swe.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 15, 2018, 09:16:04 PM
12z EURO says another 2-4" in Edmonton next 24 hrs. lol. It's September 15th!

Wonder how quickly Canada's major cities hit regular snowcover this year. I would bet the worst fall anomalies will be in the areas to the east of the southern Rockies and west of the Great Lakes.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on September 15, 2018, 09:20:50 PM
Why east of the southern Rockies ?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 16, 2018, 12:20:29 AM
Why east of the southern Rockies ?
I am not sure. I pick this region because of persistence (in the peripheral seasons it has been having increasingly - anomalies). But beyond persistence, I think it may have to do with the northern re-alignment of the Hadley Cells in the PAC / ATL & increasingly lopsided refreeze of CAA & Hudson vs. Bering and Barentz.

It would make sense that as Hudson / CAA spend more of the year ice-covered RELATIVE to Bering and Barentz, -500MB anomalies favorable for cold / snow shift to their vicinity, especially when Hudson & CAA have ice and Bering / Barentz do not.

The raring start 2018 has seen re: snowcover has to do partially, IMO, with the very high remaining extent in the CAA and slivers of sea ice remaining in Foxe Basin. Combined with the lack of ice in Bering and Barentz, this will favor a very early onset of winter across the Canadian shield which is now ongoing, as well as a very early complete refreeze of Hudson / CAA (just beginning in parts of the CAA).

For some reason, this seemingly favors severe cold over Alberta / Saskatchewan / Montana / Dakotas. I think it is because the moisture flux from all the excess water vapor results in much more consistent snowcover during wintertime, which is now extending to the early and late season. And all you need for severe negative monthly anomalies is consistent snowcover (in spring and fall, that is). The increasing fortitude of the CAA / HB ice is also now seemingly anchoring a perpetual vortex of major -500MB anomalies nearby.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 16, 2018, 12:23:12 AM
It looks like Edmonton may set its new September record in a day or two. I believe they have about 5CM currently, need 7CM to surpass 1965's 12.1CM. Coincidentally or not that winter was also a moderate El Nino.

https://www.thestar.com/edmonton/2018/09/14/disbelief-as-snow-hits-and-northern-alberta-farmers-scramble-to-save-crops-worth-millions.html

A northern Alberta farmer situated about 70 kilometres north of Grande Prairie — an area which was forecasted to get 10 to 15 cm of snow Wednesday — Sekulic had only heard stories from his grandparents about snow showing up so early in September.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/temperatures-rise-above-seasonal-values-in-the-prairies-cooler-pattern-dominates-second-week-of-september-threat-for-snow-northern-alberta-grand-prairie-hinton-calgary-edmonton/111884

Much colder air continues to invade much of northern and central Alberta leaving many places feeling 10-15 degrees below normal values. The potential is also growing for the second round of accumulating snow in Edmonton this weekend, which could help to mark one of the snowiest Septembers on record for the city. The current record dates back over 50 years ago when 12.9 cm fell during the September of 1965.

Records FYI

12.9CM 1965
12.2CM 1971
9.2CM 1984
8.4CM 2017

It is uncanny that we are seemingly repeating 2017-18 (but colder / snowier this yr IMO). Will Edmonton blow the 1965 record away by 9/30?

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fplatform.crowdspark.com%2Fstorage%2F33358247&hash=5d21960c38fe7938fdeaf72d1ede0185)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 16, 2018, 10:40:41 AM
Today's 00z EURO through D10. Note Edmonton most certainly sets a new record if it comes to pass.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on September 16, 2018, 11:49:22 AM
Plenty of storms in the North Atlantic next week. And they transport moisture north.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: johnm33 on September 16, 2018, 11:53:08 AM
"Why east of the southern Rockies ? " Look at this elevation map (http://elevation.maplogs.com/poi/calgary_ab_canada.14604.html), that area is likely to precipitate the moisture out of clouds, as snow. With Beaufort more or less ice free, Pacific ingress, increasingly variable weather patterns, evaporation driven south is inevitable. It seems most likely it will be condensed out against the Rockies, but where it heads further south those high prairies force the clouds high enough to make snow, whereas by Winnipeg you'd expect rain, or just passing clouds.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on September 16, 2018, 12:56:15 PM
I thought he was talking about the area further south, in the US. Where you have these drought conditions. That area seams to be cut off from moisture coming from the gulf, and in general it's missing what is coming from the pasific. But further north  he could be right.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Niall Dollard on September 16, 2018, 01:19:26 PM
Of the reporting weather stations in Canada, Tuktut Nogait is leading the way with 42cm lying snow this morning. It is located in Tuktut Nogait National Park (famous calving grounds for young caribou) in the Northwest Territories.

Winds have been NW coming down off the cold, icy pack in the eastern Beaufort and CAB but then picking up moisture over the ice-free Amundsen Gulf which is a good recipe for snow-making. Like the Great Lakes snow effect. Helps too of course that the station is at altitude of 552m.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on September 16, 2018, 01:35:19 PM
Do you think the moisture comes from the Amundsen Gulf ? I don't know how much evaporation you get at some temperature, but it can't be much at that point. And there is very little vegetation. If i had to make a bet, i would say it comes from the Pacific. But i can be wrong. Normaly it can not be that hard to find out how much evaporation you get  at some kind of conditions.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Niall Dollard on September 16, 2018, 03:49:37 PM
Do you think the moisture comes from the Amundsen Gulf ?

Chart attached shows the synoptic situation around the time when significant snow started to accumulate at Tuktut Nogait. It was a cold airmass coming down from the NW but crossing the ice free Amundsen Gulf area (circled) before depositing downwind at the Canadian mainland.

With Lake Effect snows a cold air mass moves across long expanses of warmer lake water, warming the lower layer of air which picks up water vapor from the lake.

For this part of Canada October is the snowiest month. You have a combination of cold weather but often both the Beaufort and Amunden Gulf are not frozen. Once the sea areas are frozen over snowfall decreases significantly.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 17, 2018, 01:57:04 AM
18z para GFS is... a notch snowier! Snow into the northern tier of the US by D8-9, Quebec is getting buried.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018091618/fv3p_asnow_namer_37.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 17, 2018, 05:48:29 PM
...Quebec is getting buried.

It would certainly help if you used language that acknowledged that this is a forecast that goes out 8 days. It would also be useful if you did not suggest that all of Quebec is "getting buried".

It is currently 81F in Montreal.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/CAXX0385:1:CA

And this is the forecast for Ft. Mckenzie. Highs in the low to mid 40's through Friday.

https://www.worldweatheronline.com/fort-mckenzie-weather/quebec/ca.aspx?day=20
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 17, 2018, 07:37:22 PM
I would also call into question the accuracy of the map. It seems to suggest that northern Wisconsin will see snow in the next 8 days. I am very familiar with Wisconsin. Here is the forecast for Rhinelander which shows snow on that map.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Rhinelander+WI+54501:4:US

The lows over the next 15 days are in the 40's with the highs in the 60's. A lot of precipitation is in the forecast but it is all rain.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 17, 2018, 07:45:57 PM
That map also shows an impressive band of snow accumulation across central Ontario (6" to 10"). Attawapiskat on the west coast of James Bay is right in the middle of this band. Here is the forecast.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/weather/ontario/attawapiskat

Temperatures never drop below 32F over the next 7 days with highs around 50F with a small amount of rain in the forecast. There is a chance of snow mixed with rain on 9/22 but total precipitation is supposed to be less than 1 mm.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 17, 2018, 07:54:47 PM
Of course. forecasts are forecasts and there is no certainty that the ones I have posted are more accurate and so we will have to wait. Since this is your thread, it would be useful for you to post a follow up in 8 days to see how this heavy snow forecast plays out.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 17, 2018, 10:28:15 PM
12z EURO :o

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 17, 2018, 11:22:02 PM
Of course. forecasts are forecasts and there is no certainty that the ones I have posted are more accurate and so we will have to wait. Since this is your thread, it would be useful for you to post a follow up in 8 days to see how this heavy snow forecast plays out.
I agree. I think your forecast links use the GFS. The para GFS is apparently snowier. The ECMWF also seems more sensitive to retaining cover (and the Canadian is also superior to old GFS at least).

Today's 12z PARA is also pretty absurd.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018091712/fv3p_asnow_us_41.png)

The Canadian has large falls into Montana but both PARA GFS + EURO have heavy snows well into the Rockies / NRN US Plains.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018091712/gem_asnow_us_40.png)

Despite the outright anomaly of such a scenario ^, I think the bigger takeaway from today's runs is the potential for non-stop seasonal snowcover to be commencing across Nunavut and Quebec. If the 12z EURO's totals are accurate, that cover is deep enough to withstand any temporary warm incursions (and long range models show barely any of that, anyways).
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on September 18, 2018, 01:08:20 PM
From AccuWeather - Canada autumn weather forecast. (Just for the new ice age outlook)

Yes, really cold in Quebec,
No, just average precipitation in the far north, and below in Quebec.

But Wunderground disagree (as regards USA). Below average temps in the NE USA October to December - (the world stops at the 49th parallel)

 https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/2018-fall-outlook-for-canada/70005899

https://www.wunderground.com/news/forecast/national/news/2018-09-17-fall-early-winter-temperature-outlook-october-november-december

2018 fall outlook for Canada -
By Brett Anderson, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
8/27/2018, 10:03:14 AM


Quote
Some key points in regards to the forecast...........

-- Weak El Nino conditions are anticipated for early fall. El Nino may become moderate in strength by late fall.

-- Warm and generally dry conditions to dominate across the southern Prairies. This may be beneficial to the early fall harvest.

-- High fire danger likely to linger through early fall across much of western Canada with smoke continuing to be an issue, especially from southern BC through the southern Prairies. I also see an increased fire danger for Quebec.

-- Primary storm track will direct most of the storms and wind up into the northern half of BC and southwestern portions of the Yukon Territory.

-- Best opportunity for early season cold outbreak appears to be across far northern Quebec into Labrador.

-- Advancement of sea ice across the far north will be slower than usual once again.


The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 18, 2018, 05:40:26 PM
The scale of 2018's September + anomalies in the Bering is astounding. 2012 had nothing close, in fact, that region was actually - in Sept (through the 16th).

I wonder if suspicions re: the state change in the Bering becoming an increasingly key factor behind N American cold may be correct? Maybe as Hudson Bay becomes increasingly ice-covered relative to Bering, (possibly partially due to Bering's melt / accumulated oceanic heat?) it amplifies the impact even further.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 21, 2018, 02:07:32 AM
So how is that 8 day forecast holding up? It forecast an accumulation of 6' to 10' in Attawakispat, Ontario by September 25. Here is the current 7 day forecast to 9/27.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/weather/ontario/attawapiskat

Hmmmmm....highs between 6C and 12C for the next 7 days with only 2 nights dipping below freezing.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 21, 2018, 07:57:25 AM
So how is that 8 day forecast holding up? It forecast an accumulation of 6' to 10' in Attawakispat, Ontario by September 25. Here is the current 7 day forecast to 9/27.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/weather/ontario/attawapiskat

Hmmmmm....highs between 6C and 12C for the next 7 days with only 2 nights dipping below freezing.
It looks like the Para GFS may be too aggressive but I would also not take an 8 day forecast verbatim. Is it snowing in Quebec and other places? Yes. It is snowing everywhere it said it would? Maybe not.

In any case, I like the below projection from the Canadian re: illustrating where maximum cooling is taking place due to whatever is happening Bering etc (we discussed a few posts ago). Also, 00z models are very, very snowy. I suspect northern Quebec is on the verge of full coverage through next July.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018092100/gem_T2ma_us_38.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018092100/gem_asnow_us_40.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018092100/fv3p_asnow_namer_36.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 21, 2018, 07:30:14 PM
I will bet this is way too aggressive and will change but posting in case it does come to pass. Look at the Midwest! It is SEPTEMBER (also why this will probably not happen)!

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018092112/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018092112/fv3p_asnow_us_37.png)

I think it is more noteworthy than it would be otherwise because the areas affected ^^ were also some of the coldest relative to normal in the springtime.

However, even the regular old GFS now wants to keep dumping on Edmonton:

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018092112/gfs_asnow_us_41.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018092112/gem_asnow_us_40.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 21, 2018, 07:46:15 PM
PS -- Edmonton now has the record! With more to come and 10 days left in the month, it is already almost double the old 12.9CM from 1965.  :o

"According to Global Edmonton weather specialist Mike Sobel, the Edmonton International Airport had experienced 22 centimetres of snow prior to Friday, which surpassed the previous high of 12.9 centimetres set in 1965 by a substantial margin."

https://globalnews.ca/news/4473747/edmonton-snowfall-september-snow-record/

This is truly absurd...!

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fplatform.crowdspark.com%2Fstorage%2F33379045&hash=9849290c3219033e588495ff6fb428a8)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 21, 2018, 08:47:27 PM
"The Stuck Place" aka Alberta Montana etc

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018092112/ecmwf_T850a_nhem_9.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: karl dubhe2 on September 21, 2018, 10:07:52 PM
PS -- Edmonton now has the record!

 the Edmonton International Airport had experienced 22 centimetres of snow prior to Friday

This is truly absurd...!

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fplatform.crowdspark.com%2Fstorage%2F33379045&hash=9849290c3219033e588495ff6fb428a8)

 8)  Absurd or not, it's already melting/melted.  The report talks about accumulated precipitation.    There's just a bit of snow left on the ground outside my window.  It should all be gone by Thursday, when the temperature is supposed to rise to 17 C.  It's traditional Alberta weather, if you don't like it; wait five minutes. 
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 21, 2018, 10:40:39 PM
PS -- Edmonton now has the record!

 the Edmonton International Airport had experienced 22 centimetres of snow prior to Friday

This is truly absurd...!

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fplatform.crowdspark.com%2Fstorage%2F33379045&hash=9849290c3219033e588495ff6fb428a8)

 8)  Absurd or not, it's already melting/melted.  The report talks about accumulated precipitation.    There's just a bit of snow left on the ground outside my window.  It should all be gone by Thursday, when the temperature is supposed to rise to 17 C.  It's traditional Alberta weather, if you don't like it; wait five minutes.

If 12z models are correct looks like you could see another 10-15CM+...!
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: karl dubhe2 on September 22, 2018, 01:48:33 PM


If 12z models are correct looks like you could see another 10-15CM+...!

Environment Canada is predicting 5CM.  :)  And above zero temps for the rest of the week.  It's still early for winter to set in this far south.  By mid October, hopefully after the crops are harvested, we should see snow arrive and not go away again. 

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html

The nice thing about the early snow is that it reminds me of winters in the 1970s, although it's still much more humid than it used to be.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on September 22, 2018, 07:11:13 PM
https://watchers.news/2018/09/21/alberta-records-snowiest-september-since-records-began-more-expected-canada/
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on September 22, 2018, 09:03:10 PM
Out of curiosity, do these 8 and 10 day predictions posted here ever come true? I read this thread for its anecdotal news value, but predictions alone aren't enough.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 22, 2018, 09:11:48 PM
Out of curiosity, do these 8 and 10 day predictions posted here ever come true? I read this thread for its anecdotal news value, but predictions alone aren't enough.
The 8-10 day predictions contain all the snow *through* D8-10. So those maps are usually fairly accurate in overall detailing even if some parts are not (e.g., the forecast through D4-5 is usually pretty reliable, the D6+ is not).

I think the D6+ stuff has more value when the models all show the same thing.

Funny enough, that is exactly what they are now doing in the northern Lower 48. GFS-Para, GFS,  all show major accumulating snows down to the mid-Rockies and the Dakotas. However, the EURO is showing the stripe of highest accumulations somewhat north, with Calgary taking the brunt.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018092212/fv3p_asnow_us_41.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018092212/gem_asnow_us_40.png)

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on September 23, 2018, 05:42:09 PM
NORTH AMERICA SNOWFALL - Here is some data from  Environment Canada  - https://www.ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

Snow Cover Extent (SCE) is high. Looking at the map it looks like most of it is less than 5 cms deep (grey shading)

Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) is also high, but not by so much.

At this time of year a warm front can easily get rid of a lot of it. (see posts e.g. re Edmonton from karl dubhe2 above) 

ps: Click on the map for a better view, click again for maximum size.

pps: On my machine the website often looks like it has not been updated - I have to delete browsing history to get the latest figures if refreshing the page doesn't work.
_______________________________________________
Snow Cover Extent (SCE)
Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) - the mass of water contained in the snow. Usually considered to be 10 units of snow depth = 1 unit of water depth.
1km3 of SWE = 1 Gigatonne of water
_______________________________________________-
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 23, 2018, 07:51:22 PM
Thank you! My browser has / is still stuck.

I have been watching the snowcover via this link which is the same map but with SSTAs & can be animated:

https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/animation_e.html?id=month&bc=sea

Looks like we should expect a substantial uptick in both SWE and extent today btw.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 24, 2018, 06:38:40 AM
Vive la neige en Quebec!

(https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif)

It should be noted (comparing CCIN charts) that the gains this September have been very lopsided. Eurasia is actually about normal. But North America...!

But look at the CAA / orientation of the ice and it actually makes sense IMO? The snowfall so far is directly aligned with where the sea ice / open ocean boundary is NW of Nunavut.

(https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on September 26, 2018, 04:58:46 PM
A small hiccup in the progress towards the inevitable glaciation of Northern Canada is attached..
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 26, 2018, 07:28:20 PM
A small hiccup in the progress towards the inevitable glaciation of Northern Canada is attached..
If the Bering anomalies / Canada cold are indeed inextricably linked, the latest model projections could indicate that most all of Canada is going into the deep freezer imminently. And with the speed it is set to happen, perhaps the Lower 48 could follow fairly quickly as well, with falls already being projected across Montana and the NW Plains.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 26, 2018, 08:23:23 PM
A small hiccup in the progress towards the inevitable glaciation of Northern Canada is attached..

 :D
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 27, 2018, 01:30:08 AM
Snow depth anomalies don't look too spectacular.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 27, 2018, 01:35:45 AM
Northern Hemisphere snow cover and snow water equivalent is normal.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 27, 2018, 02:16:56 AM
Northern Hemisphere snow cover and snow water equivalent is normal.
That masks the regional crazy. EURO has the whole Canadian shield covered by D10. Russia will still only be white in Northeast Siberia while a mega ridge drifts into the PAC & Russian seas atop the open water (which in many parts has more heat than any autumn before).

The ridging that has continued to span from the ATL across into the Pacific has also resulted in the PV / vortex over Greenland being unable to discharge cold airmasses into Siberia effectively (look at all the open water in between the sea ice and the coast -- except far NE Siberia). So cold air has continued to dump into the Rockies with a greatly enhanced recurrence interval vs. normal, and these large troughs eventually then transport oceanic heat north in the form of +500MB anoms, in a self-perpetuating cycle.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on September 27, 2018, 07:32:43 AM
It don't has to mean very much, but it  could be a trend. You have a higher albedo for at least a couple days in a pretty big area. Of course, a couple days of higher temperatures can knock it down. September 27 in 2017 and 2018.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 27, 2018, 03:06:43 PM
Northern Hemisphere snow cover and snow water equivalent is normal.
That masks the regional crazy. EURO has the whole Canadian shield covered by D10.

The 10 day forecasts you have been posting this fall have been consistently wrong across much of Canada. I suggested you post an evaluation after the fact so we can determine the level of accuracy. The snow depth anomaly chart I just posted clearly shows that snow has not been abnormally high. A 10% positive anomaly hardly is anything to write about.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 27, 2018, 03:31:50 PM
Northern Hemisphere snow cover and snow water equivalent is normal.
That masks the regional crazy. EURO has the whole Canadian shield covered by D10.

On this thread, we can learn more if we attach just as much importance to snow cover year round instead of just focusing on the Fall. Due to Arctic sea ice melt, we have far more open water that can and does cause heavier snowfall in the Fall. I live 6 blocks from Lake Michigan and lake effect snow can be impressive. We have seen a trend towards increasing snowfall at the end of the melt season and yet NA snowfall has not yet spiked this year in a dramatic fashion. I do expect that it will but am also certain it will all melt next spring and summer just as it did this year.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 27, 2018, 03:34:00 PM
I am very concerned about heavy, early snow cover though. This heavy snow cover serves to insulate the permafrost from the bitter cold during the winter which is accelerating permafrost melt.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on September 27, 2018, 03:45:39 PM
I am very concerned about heavy, early snow cover though. This heavy snow cover serves to insulate the permafrost from the bitter cold during the winter which is accelerating permafrost melt.

I have just posted this-
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1786.msg174423.html#msg174423

which strongly suggests an additional mechanism for accelerating permafrost melt - plants.

Also some months ago posted about a study showing how thick snow encourages plant growth which encourages.......
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 28, 2018, 09:36:28 AM
00z EURO has depths getting pretty substantial across lower latitudes of Canada by D10.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Neven on September 28, 2018, 12:36:15 PM
Any forecasts for D20 or D50?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: karl dubhe2 on September 28, 2018, 01:17:05 PM
Any forecasts for D20 or D50?

There's this one from the Canadian weather people.   https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html  Says the probabilility of above average snowfall is somewhat greater this fall/early winter.  But that's a long range forecast, almost like quoting the Farmer's Almanac.   ;D 
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on September 28, 2018, 01:59:00 PM
Any forecasts for D20 or D50?

There's this one from the Canadian weather people.   https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html  Says the probabilility of above average snowfall is somewhat greater this fall/early winter.  But that's a long range forecast, almost like quoting the Farmer's Almanac.   ;D

D20 or D50? That's nothing.

Wunderground (which stops at the 49th parallel) suggests for the northern tier of the USA, a really cold October, above average temperature November, and very above average temperature December.

And attached are the temp and precipitation forecasts from the link from Karl dunhe2. Note the precipitation forecast is not for a lot except in patches. Should be new forecasts on the website by early October.

So far no forecasts of an ice-sheet reaching south to the Great Lakes by Xmas.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Juan C. García on September 28, 2018, 02:55:53 PM
Any forecasts for D20 or D50?

There's this one from the Canadian weather people.   https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html  Says the probabilility of above average snowfall is somewhat greater this fall/early winter.  But that's a long range forecast, almost like quoting the Farmer's Almanac.   ;D

D20 or D50? That's nothing.


I think that Neven was being sarcastic. A forecast of 20 or 50 days has a big chance on being wrong.  ;)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Red on September 28, 2018, 03:13:38 PM
Any forecasts for D20 or D50?

There's this one from the Canadian weather people.   https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html  Says the probabilility of above average snowfall is somewhat greater this fall/early winter.  But that's a long range forecast, almost like quoting the Farmer's Almanac.   ;D

D20 or D50? That's nothing.


I think that Neven was being sarcastic. A forecast of 20 or 50 days has a big chance on being wrong.  ;)
I'm sure it was sarcasm. Just like to share what "The Weather Network" is saying about the coming Canadian winter:
PRELIMINARY LOOK AHEAD TO WINTER

With rumors of a developing El Niño, many are asking if the mild fall pattern will continue through the winter.  For those in Western Canada, we do expect a milder than normal winter, but from the central Prairies to Atlantic Canada a more traditional Canadian winter is expected with near normal temperatures. Across this region, we expect the upcoming winter to bear some resemblance to last winter with periods of harsh winter weather that should be offset at times by significant periods of milder weather
Makes me smile I'm not sure if they're meteorologists or astrologists.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on September 28, 2018, 09:32:08 PM
When you talk about Canada, i would say that it doesn't matter that much that the temperature is above or below average. If you are talking about snow.  It will still be cold. Or is anybody seeing the cameleons from Florida moving north, maybe after last winter they got used to it . What would be the impact of a modrate El Nino on the weather in Canada ?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 30, 2018, 10:33:42 PM
The "cold triangle" is expanding SE as the sun falls lower in the sky each passing day. Some of this may be muted but models (all three big ones) now showing first major snowfalls down to Denver and the western Plains States in the Lower 48.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018093012/fv3p_asnow_us_41.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018093012/gem_asnow_us_40.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018093012/fv3p_T2ma_us_34.png)

Coverage should continue building more steadily into Quebec through D10. Volume anomalies may begin becoming more pronounced as the area subject to melt starts dwindling fairly quickly through October.

I wonder if the very steep impending gradient between snowfall across the Rockies / Plains + 80-85F+ SSTs in the GOM may also result in a very potent fall severe weather season?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on September 30, 2018, 11:18:57 PM
GFS says Canada gets a big fat storm Wed Thur Fri - loads of rain and snow from the Great Lakes to the NE. Apart from that pretty dry, but very cold.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 02, 2018, 06:15:00 PM
Sexy
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on October 03, 2018, 12:19:25 AM
The storm in Quebec on Thursday looks like a real humdinger.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Niall Dollard on October 03, 2018, 12:24:30 AM
Rutgers snow cover extent for the Northern Hemisphere was 6.37 million km2. This is a positive anomaly of 1.14. A little greater than Sept 17.

As BBR has highlighted already, there was a big east/west split this year with a record breaking anomaly for North America whilst Eurasia had below normal snow cover.

Attached is updated chart of the nh monthly anomalies of 2016-2018. 
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 03, 2018, 05:34:04 PM
Calgary shattering October records 3 days into the month with feet of additional accums forecast... this year....!!!!

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2018-10-03-calgary-alberta-canada-snow-record-october

When just looking at October, the snowstorm was a calendar day record breaker, topping 11.7 inches (29.7 centimeters) on Oct. 4, 1914.

The storm total for Calgary when including Monday's additional 2 inches (5.3 centimeters) was 15 inches (38.1 centimeters).

Calgary's average October snowfall of 3.9 inches (10 centimeters) was more than tripled by this two-day snowstorm.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 03, 2018, 05:40:25 PM
The models are now dumping on parts of the Dakotas but the 6z para GFS took it to another level.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018100306/fv3p_asnow_us_41.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on October 03, 2018, 10:14:24 PM
Yes, an impressive dump of snow. And in a week or so just a memory?

Calgary shattering October records 3 days into the month with feet of additional accums forecast... this year....!!!!

Calgary's average October snowfall of 3.9 inches (10 centimeters) was more than tripled by this two-day snowstorm.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-october-snow-1.4848394
'A much better day': Sunshine and warm temperatures help Calgary dig out from fall snowstorm
Quote
But with sunny skies in Calgary and temperatures expected to rise as high as 4 C Wednesday, the head of the city's Emergency Operations Centre said they will be shifting some of their responsibilities back to the roads and transit departments for the remainder of the cleanup.

"[The weather] has us actually moving a little bit from snow operations, to planning for that thaw that will come," said Tom Sampson in an update Wednesday morning.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/0/5913490
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 03, 2018, 10:34:51 PM
What I see... low 40s will melt some but 15" should have staying power and much more is on way.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on October 03, 2018, 10:48:10 PM
t is Quebec that is really going to get clobbered. Fort Mackenzie way up north tomorrow gets very heavy rain at +8 celsius in the morning that turns to a blizzard by afternoon that will last for 36 hours - it gets cold and will stay cold. So there the snow will stay?

But most of the time it looks like especially Northern Canada is mainly dry with a bit of snow now and then. A dump of snow maybe in South Central Canada next mid-week? But will that stay or melt?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 03, 2018, 11:24:26 PM
t is Quebec that is really going to get clobbered. Fort Mackenzie way up north tomorrow gets very heavy rain at +8 celsius in the morning that turns to a blizzard by afternoon that will last for 36 hours - it gets cold and will stay cold. So there the snow will stay?

But most of the time it looks like especially Northern Canada is mainly dry with a bit of snow now and then. A dump of snow maybe in South Central Canada next mid-week? But will that stay or melt?
You should toggle between output here. You can view accumulated snow on ground by hour for GFS, CMC, and EURO.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/massachusetts/gusts-3h-mph/20171030-0600z.html

(obviously switch ^^ to whereever you need)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 05, 2018, 07:26:07 AM
Well, that would be insane. This is a bit far out but the PARA GFS has the recurving hurricane in the EPAC turning into a blizzard in the Central Plains after landfalling in Baja.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018100500/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png)

The GFS is a match but outcome somewhat different re: blizzicane.

Here is Para snowfall through 186. While it may be aggressive it is clear we may be in for the coldest and snowiest October in North American history.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018100500/fv3p_asnow_us_32.png)

The "sag" triangle of cold that has anchored over Canada will begin falling SE fairly rapidly as daylight dwindles and snowfalls begin accumulating across more substantial areas. With the PV continually tumbling from Greenland into the CAA & the Shield this will only get worse, and as Foxe Basin and HB refreeze, the stage is set for worsening conditions through December (IMO).

It may take a while for NYC & Boston to join Calgary and Chicago but once the cold descends (as it always has in recent years) I anticipate a winter that is extremely severe.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 12, 2018, 03:53:00 PM
Wow!

We are all but a lock for #1 October across North America.

Meanwhile, the situation is yielding another side effect which I did not realize would occur. All the cold being stuck / shunted into North America + the open water along the Russian side / lack of snow in western Siberia has resulted in MASSIVE + 500MB anoms overhead.

But the side effect of this is also no refreeze along the Russian shoreline. No accumulating snows, much less cold meltwater, no cold / albedo way up, = no shore ice. The shore ice has traditionally anchored the Laptev refreeze alongside the expansion of the CAB. With this year's formation of shore ice delayed so substantially across both Alaska and much of Siberia, that is yet another very bad sign for volume over winter 2018.

North American snowcover has now passed total Arctic sea ice area, btw (probably a record for the time of year -- both snowcover at its high, and sea ice at its lows). This goes to 10/11 but when it updates to include 10/12 (attached) it will be even higher. The falls from 10/11 to 10/12 were widespread and deep.

I think this supports the notion that as we continue losing Arctic sea ice volume, the growing deficit is seemingly depositing partially onto the continents in the form of accumulated SWE (and as the deficit worsens, the rate at which this is happening is increasing).

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/na_sce.png)

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/na_swe.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on October 15, 2018, 02:12:43 PM
But Eurasia is bigger than Canada, Here are the snow graphs.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on October 15, 2018, 07:18:12 PM
It's getting cold in North-America.

https://watchers.news/2018/10/15/early-season-snowfall-below-average-temperatures-united-states/
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 16, 2018, 02:28:59 AM
I went through the Rutgers maps comparing 2018 to 2002 day by day for October. I would estimate we have built up a running surplus of about 1.25M KM^2 vs. 2002 across North America. This should be maintained or exceeded as we end the month if modeling is correct.

https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=namgnld&ui_month=10

In any case, 2002 holds the current record for North American October extent at 9.763M KM^2. I think we should end up at least +1 vs. that yr which means that the current scale for October will be broken.  8)

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on October 17, 2018, 12:27:51 PM
I had a look at Environment Canada's seasonal forecasts for Nov to Jan. They lean towards slightly warmer than average temperatures and mostly average precipitation. This seems to chime in somewhat with the outlook from the US Climate Prediction Centre.

Overall, the forecasts suggest the October cold will moderate to perhaps above average temperatures with few signals for above average precipitation. Alaska might be really interesting with much above temperatures and high precipitation along the West coast.

We will see if the snowfall Nov to Jan is with or without these forecasts.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on October 22, 2018, 03:32:03 PM
Ho hum. Another small hiccup in the progress towards the inevitable glaciation of Canada.

It also looks like not that much snow in the remainder of October. Just occasional storms hitting NW USA  and Quebec.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 22, 2018, 04:13:52 PM
I would not call this "not much" considering it is sticking and spreading. As Foxe Basin and Hudson Bay ice up almost completely over the next three to four weeks, expect model output to adjust colder (they are horrible with refreeze / SSTs past short term). But it is already non-stop blizzarding across much of Quebec with 24-48" forecast in widespread areas through D10 by 00z EURO (and others).

At this point in most other years, snowcover in Quebec was sporadic, or light. In 2018, it is almost entirely covered to a depth of 12"+ in most places, with 24"+ widsepread.

Combined with Hudson Bay, and the SSTs off the Atlantic Seaboard, I think this will yield a bitterly cold winter for the US and probably Europe (but severity focused on Lower 48). Quebec will flash purple with anomalies through November but it will probably be normal / above for temps (maybe significantly so) by late Jan / Feb as the center of anomalous snowpack vs. normal falls down to the US Lower South. Then it will again flip back to severely "below" as snowcover persists in Quebec into May / June / possibly much of July.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Archimid on October 22, 2018, 05:35:25 PM
I wonder how the blob is going to affect snow cover.

he Massive Anomaly 'Blob' in The Pacific Is Back And Might Bring Even More Strange Weather

https://www.sciencealert.com/the-massive-blob-in-the-pacific-is-back-and-it-might-bring-even-more-insane-weather

Quote
Since days are still long in early fall across Alaska, the sunny September (and into October) skies have also allowed ocean temperatures in the Northeast Pacific to rise significantly, as well.

This has led to a return pool of abnormally warm ocean water in the Northeast Pacific known as "the blob", and just in time for Halloween!

But scientists are unsure whether the blob will remain a fixture or fade away. If it manages to linger into the winter, the consequences for the Lower 48 could be profound.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on October 22, 2018, 06:23:36 PM
As Foxe Basin and Hudson Bay ice up almost completely over the next three to four weeks
Hey, at least the Hudson Bay is cooperating with your extreme prediction, and has started freezing about 1-2 weeks earlier than recent years. I still don't expect it to be almost complete by Nov 15th, though.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: morganism on October 22, 2018, 07:54:53 PM
Alaska’s weird, warm fall:

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/weather/2018/10/21/alaskas-weird-warm-fall-a-boon-for-farmers-but-really-scary-for-people-who-depend-on-arctic-ice/

Colder in NA than in Alaska.

The Blob has been named the Rediculously Resilent Ridge, and is thought to be methane upwelling. Like the one that steers over by Greenland

Daniel Swain at Weather West has done a paper on it....
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 22, 2018, 08:35:39 PM
As Foxe Basin and Hudson Bay ice up almost completely over the next three to four weeks
Hey, at least the Hudson Bay is cooperating with your extreme prediction, and has started freezing about 1-2 weeks earlier than recent years. I still don't expect it to be almost complete by Nov 15th, though.
I think I said 75% by 11/15 (mostly complete, won't be ice yet or only super new ice on srn / se shoreline and James Bay). In any case, it is definitely making quick progress, and I think the very early refreeze will be problematic for forecast models as well (the disparity with climo will be large, and they incorporate climo into their forecasts).
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 22, 2018, 11:50:50 PM
But it is already non-stop blizzarding across much of Quebec with 24-48" forecast in widespread areas through D10 by 00z EURO (and others).

At this point in most other years, snowcover in Quebec was sporadic, or light. In 2018, it is almost entirely covered to a depth of 12"+ in most places, with 24"+ widsepread.


This post is confusing me. You say 24" to 48" of snow is forecast and then post a map that suggests anywhere from negligible to 4 inches.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 22, 2018, 11:57:37 PM
But it is already non-stop blizzarding across much of Quebec with 24-48" forecast in widespread areas through D10 by 00z EURO (and others).

At this point in most other years, snowcover in Quebec was sporadic, or light. In 2018, it is almost entirely covered to a depth of 12"+ in most places, with 24"+ widsepread.


This post is confusing me. You say 24" to 48" of snow is forecast and then post a map that suggests anywhere from negligible to 4 inches.
That is liquid equivalent in snow through 240 -- 2" is normally 20-24".
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 23, 2018, 01:59:46 AM
But it is already non-stop blizzarding across much of Quebec with 24-48" forecast in widespread areas through D10 by 00z EURO (and others).

At this point in most other years, snowcover in Quebec was sporadic, or light. In 2018, it is almost entirely covered to a depth of 12"+ in most places, with 24"+ widsepread.


This post is confusing me. You say 24" to 48" of snow is forecast and then post a map that suggests anywhere from negligible to 4 inches.
That is liquid equivalent in snow through 240 -- 2" is normally 20-24".

Then I call bullshit on this map entirely.

Waterloo Iowa is predicted to have 10 to 12 inches of snow in the next 10 days according to this map and here is the long range forecast.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/50701:4:US

Daily highs never drop below 46F.

Rochester, Minnesota which is on the northern edge of this band of heavy snow has daily highs which don't drop below 41F.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/USMN0632:1:US
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Brigantine on October 23, 2018, 02:02:35 AM
That is liquid equivalent in snow through 240 -- 2" is normally 20-24".
Citation needed?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 23, 2018, 03:04:08 AM
But it is already non-stop blizzarding across much of Quebec with 24-48" forecast in widespread areas through D10 by 00z EURO (and others).

At this point in most other years, snowcover in Quebec was sporadic, or light. In 2018, it is almost entirely covered to a depth of 12"+ in most places, with 24"+ widsepread.


This post is confusing me. You say 24" to 48" of snow is forecast and then post a map that suggests anywhere from negligible to 4 inches.
That is liquid equivalent in snow through 240 -- 2" is normally 20-24".

Then I call bullshit on this map entirely.

Waterloo Iowa is predicted to have 10 to 12 inches of snow in the next 10 days according to this map and here is the long range forecast.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/50701:4:US

Daily highs never drop below 46F.

Rochester, Minnesota which is on the northern edge of this band of heavy snow has daily highs which don't drop below 41F.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/USMN0632:1:US
Weather.com is based on GFS

and go Google re: liquid equiv, or just paste the maps with the depth totals, lol they are almost identical even though normal ratios arent always perfect
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on October 23, 2018, 03:13:08 AM
bbr - a recommendation, which will probably go in the dustbin: if you're going to post 10-day forecasts, which are known to be extremely unreliable, at least go back and revisit them after 10 days and compare actual accumulated snow vs. the forecast. Otherwise, all these colorful forecast posts are just worthless.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on October 23, 2018, 04:47:48 PM
bbr - a recommendation, which will probably go in the dustbin: if you're going to post 10-day forecasts, which are known to be extremely unreliable, at least go back and revisit them after 10 days and compare actual accumulated snow vs. the forecast. Otherwise, all these colorful forecast posts are just worthless.
Hullo Oren, the content of your recommendation has been posted n times, where n is getting larger.

And that's all I have to say about that
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: be cause on October 23, 2018, 06:25:14 PM
bbr - a recommendation, which will probably go in the dustbin: if you're going to post 10-day forecasts, which are known to be extremely unreliable, at least go back and revisit them after 10 days and compare actual accumulated snow vs. the forecast. Otherwise, all these colorful forecast posts are just worthless.
Hullo Oren, the content of your recommendation has been posted n times, where n is getting larger.

And that's all I have to say about that


of course if a forecast ever does come to fruition we will certainly be told  .. but otherwise the response will be N as in Never .. b.c.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 24, 2018, 08:42:10 PM
Happy to verify predictions but each D10 map is not a prediction it is model output... I predicted Hudson Bay would be 75% ice covered by 11/15 -- let's start with that.

PS, here are temps for the last six months, what I would consider the "warm season," 4/23-10/22. I think Quebec probably only needs another drop of a degree or two for perpetual summer snowcover over its southern highlands, since it already happened this year over a small area of its northern mountains.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: colchonero on October 24, 2018, 10:19:11 PM
 Even if the snow stays whole summer just over the highest mountain peaks of Quebec, I don't see that as a big glaciation threat. I mean this is always the case in the Alps or Himalayas, and there is no big effect for let's say Switzerland in general. I think you can make your case only if the snow stays over large parts of Quebec with lower altitude.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on October 25, 2018, 01:42:11 PM
Time to confuse the issue with some data on snow cover - images attached. (https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current has woken up again)

Hiccup on snowmageddon in North America continues.
Eurasia snow increasing to average levels.

ps: Greenland precipitation also staying just below average
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2227.msg178316.html#msg178316
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 27, 2018, 04:20:45 PM
The abrupt and dramatic slowing in North America of Snow Cover Extent (SCE) and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) continues. I am somewhat surprised by this as positive snow anomalies for fall and early winter have been a persistent feature for the past several years. I think this is due, in part, to the large expanses of open water which can supercharge snowstorms. I would not be surprised by a return to dramatic growth although the rapid freeze of the CAA may be creating local conditions that are not conducive to heavy snowfall.

Have these enormous snowstorms predicted in Eastern Canada fallen only on areas already covered with snow which would explain the stall in SCE but that would not seem to explain the slowing in SWE, would it?

A review of those 10 day snow forecasts might help explain this.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 27, 2018, 04:47:01 PM
The forecast for a foot of snow in Waterloo, Iowa, posted by bbr2314 on October 22 was not accurate and temperatures over the next few days will be in the low 60F range.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/50701:4:US

This forecast was a Canadian generated forecast so inaccuracies about Iowa would not necessarily mean similar inaccuracies for Quebec.

bbr2314 -- How has that forecast for Quebec held up?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 27, 2018, 05:20:16 PM
The forecast for a foot of snow in Waterloo, Iowa, posted by bbr2314 on October 22 was not accurate and temperatures over the next few days will be in the low 60F range.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/50701:4:US

This forecast was a Canadian generated forecast so inaccuracies about Iowa would not necessarily mean similar inaccuracies for Quebec.

bbr2314 -- How has those forecasts for Quebec held up?

The Quebec forecast has actually held up fairly well I believe! It appears you are correct re: previous post / where it is already snowing it is accumulating, where it isn't, it isn't.

We are probably still going to easily end up with #1 October for North American snowfall, however, I suspect the "shift" in continental balance from NOAM -> Eurasia occurred because sea ice has finally rejoined the main pack from the Eurasian side. Until the middle of this month, there was water wayyyy above 0C between the CAB/Laptev and Siberia, which kept all the Greenland /Arctic airmasses (mostly) confined to North America. But, as open ocean has conceded to sea ice (partially), it was like a brand new PV highway re-opening into Siberia, with a direct route from Greenland, which also gave all the cold that had been accumulating in NOAM an exit. At least, that is what I suspect, but I could be wrong!

PS: here is 00z EURO 0 hour accumulated snow-water-liquid-equivalent, re: Quebec etc. By 240 it is much deeper.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 27, 2018, 05:28:03 PM
Thanks. That makes sense as the SWE has not slowed as much as SCE.

Thought I would look at snow anomalies for NA. With regards to SCE, the positive anomalies in Ontario and Quebec are offset by significant negative anomalies elsewhere, mainly Alaska. the Yukon, British Columbia and Northwest Territories.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: colchonero on October 27, 2018, 06:12:13 PM
The forecast for a foot of snow in Waterloo, Iowa, posted by bbr2314 on October 22 was not accurate and temperatures over the next few days will be in the low 60F range.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/50701:4:US

This forecast was a Canadian generated forecast so inaccuracies about Iowa would not necessarily mean similar inaccuracies for Quebec.

bbr2314 -- How has those forecasts for Quebec held up?

The Quebec forecast has actually held up fairly well I believe! It appears you are correct re: previous post / where it is already snowing it is accumulating, where it isn't, it isn't.

We are probably still going to easily end up with #1 October for North American snowfall, however, I suspect the "shift" in continental balance from NOAM -> Eurasia occurred because sea ice has finally rejoined the main pack from the Eurasian side. Until the middle of this month, there was water wayyyy above 0C between the CAB/Laptev and Siberia, which kept all the Greenland /Arctic airmasses (mostly) confined to North America. But, as open ocean has conceded to sea ice (partially), it was like a brand new PV highway re-opening into Siberia, with a direct route from Greenland, which also gave all the cold that had been accumulating in NOAM an exit. At least, that is what I suspect, but I could be wrong!

PS: here is 00z EURO 0 hour accumulated snow-water-liquid-equivalent, re: Quebec etc. By 240 it is much deeper.

No, but BBR you can't say that now. You can't just turn things around, just to hold on to your point. It is not the weather that is becoming cold because of the sea ice, but the other way around. There is sea ice, because the weather got cold. The shift didn't happen because of the sea ice, it's the sea ice growing that happened because of shift. The land cools down much faster than the sea. You've been telling us for months now that because the vortex is over Canada, there won't be sea ice ice in Bering sea and Russian side.. And how the snow anomalies will get worse and the vortex will stay on the American side with Arctic burning. You cannot just switch places of CAUSE and CONSEQUENCE. now that it is not coming true.

P. S. Sorry for typing errors if there are any,
I am on my phone and in the hurry.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on October 27, 2018, 06:53:14 PM
Thanks. That makes sense as the SWE has not slowed as much as SCE.

Thought I would look at snow anomalies for NA. With regards to SCE, the positive anomalies in Ontario and Quebec are offset by significant negative anomalies elsewhere, mainly Alaska. the Yukon, British Columbia and Northwest Territories.
Shared Humanity - a tip. When you access this site, click on the map and then refresh (F5 key works  best sometimes). Often you get one or more days more up to date. e.g. I got the map as at 26 October. Same for the individual graphs. It just what that site does sometimes.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 27, 2018, 08:54:46 PM
Thanks for the tip.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 28, 2018, 12:56:39 AM
Through hr 120 -- that is a lot of snow for Africa in October... note it is liquid equivalent, 4.0" SWE is probably 40" or so.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 28, 2018, 01:07:02 AM
The forecast for a foot of snow in Waterloo, Iowa, posted by bbr2314 on October 22 was not accurate and temperatures over the next few days will be in the low 60F range.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/50701:4:US

This forecast was a Canadian generated forecast so inaccuracies about Iowa would not necessarily mean similar inaccuracies for Quebec.

bbr2314 -- How has those forecasts for Quebec held up?

The Quebec forecast has actually held up fairly well I believe! It appears you are correct re: previous post / where it is already snowing it is accumulating, where it isn't, it isn't.

We are probably still going to easily end up with #1 October for North American snowfall, however, I suspect the "shift" in continental balance from NOAM -> Eurasia occurred because sea ice has finally rejoined the main pack from the Eurasian side. Until the middle of this month, there was water wayyyy above 0C between the CAB/Laptev and Siberia, which kept all the Greenland /Arctic airmasses (mostly) confined to North America. But, as open ocean has conceded to sea ice (partially), it was like a brand new PV highway re-opening into Siberia, with a direct route from Greenland, which also gave all the cold that had been accumulating in NOAM an exit. At least, that is what I suspect, but I could be wrong!

PS: here is 00z EURO 0 hour accumulated snow-water-liquid-equivalent, re: Quebec etc. By 240 it is much deeper.

No, but BBR you can't say that now. You can't just turn things around, just to hold on to your point. It is not the weather that is becoming cold because of the sea ice, but the other way around. There is sea ice, because the weather got cold. The shift didn't happen because of the sea ice, it's the sea ice growing that happened because of shift. The land cools down much faster than the sea. You've been telling us for months now that because the vortex is over Canada, there won't be sea ice ice in Bering sea and Russian side.. And how the snow anomalies will get worse and the vortex will stay on the American side with Arctic burning. You cannot just switch places of CAUSE and CONSEQUENCE. now that it is not coming true.

P. S. Sorry for typing errors if there are any,
I am on my phone and in the hurry.

I think you are not understanding me.

Greenland is the primary vector for NHEM cold in the absence of +sea ice in the Arctic Ocean (until snowcover builds in Siberia, but even then, Greenland is usually colder).

Siberia has had almost no cold this season, until the past few days. NE Siberia has been the only redoubt, and IMO, it was due to the ESS "arm" which gave it a huge leg up on the rest of the landmass due to proximity to ice.

Here is how the sea ice looked before NOAM extent plateaued. You can clearly see both the ESS arm as well as the LACK of ice on the ATL front.

(https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_v3/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/AK/2018/ims2018290_alaska.gif)

Ten days later, we have seen huge growth, but more importantly, the main pack is now directly connected to northern Siberia by way of Laptev. This has allowed the -GAK airmassess much more ready access to Siberia, whereas the LACK of ice beforehand curtailed their movement toward Siberia (all the open water radiating heat). While Siberia can get cold on its own, when it receives airmasses from Greenland, it can get MUCH colder.

(https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif)

Also: I did not say there won't be *any* ice on the Bering + Russian side. ??? I did say Bering and Laptev (and probably Chukchi) will have worst refreeze on record and open earlier than ever before.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 28, 2018, 01:24:33 AM
Compare 2017 (worst ever Bering refreeze) with 2018... and I think it is pretty obvious it is going to be worse this year. All the cold water supposed to be mixing in Bering and Chukchi is instead rushing down Baffin Bay and through the CAA / HB.

(https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticsst/nowcast/sst2017102612_2017102700_929_arcticsst.001.gif)

(https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticsst/nowcast/sst2018102612_2018102700_930_arcticsst.001.gif)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: colchonero on October 28, 2018, 02:53:10 AM
Ok, I get you when you explain why is there now cold in Siberia and all that. But my question is how did it get that cold for sea ice to form in the first place, cause you've been saying for months PV will be over North America.  Why did it all of the sudden move  to the central Arctic allowing sea ice growth towards Russia? I know why can we have cold now, like you just explained, because main pack is now connected, but I'm asking when looking at your theory why have we seen such a cold weather in the last week allowing sea ice growth, when by your own words PV should have been located over CAA because of lack of ice on the Russian side?

And no, I don't think Bering will max out worse than last year, but I'm not basing that on anything.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 28, 2018, 03:24:25 AM
Ok, I get you when you explain why is there now cold in Siberia and all that. But my question is how did it get that cold for sea ice to form in the first place, cause you've been saying for months PV will be over North America.  Why did it all of the sudden move  to the central Arctic allowing sea ice growth towards Russia? I know why can we have cold now, like you just explained, because main pack is now connected, but I'm asking when looking at your theory why have we seen such a cold weather in the last week allowing sea ice growth, when by your own words PV should have been located over CAA because of lack of ice on the Russian side?

And no, I don't think Bering will max out worse than last year, but I'm not basing that on anything.
I think it is just freaking cold under polar night, so without salty saline warm SSTs, things freeze over quickly regardless. Surface temp maps for 10/19-10/25 show that it was still WAY above normal. But normal is now so cold that even +10C vs norm is sufficient for refreeze (polar night is a powerful phenomenon).

I think it is less the PV relocating and more like a big chunk broke off and dumped into Siberia as the refreeze reached its shores, starting the formation of a major secondary NHEM polar vortex? Attaching 500MB (in addition to surface) for verification, it would be centered under the -500MB anomaly N of Siberia coincident with the small dot of negative temps.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 28, 2018, 04:11:06 AM
Through hr 120 -- that is a lot of snow for Africa in October... note it is liquid equivalent, 4.0" SWE is probably 40" or so.

Wife is from Fez. When Morocco gets snow, that is where it falls.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 28, 2018, 05:12:20 AM
Through hr 120 -- that is a lot of snow for Africa in October... note it is liquid equivalent, 4.0" SWE is probably 40" or so.

Wife is from Fez. When Morocco gets snow, that is where it falls.
Indeed, but this is a lot, and early! I find that widespread North African snows are a good indicator for impending snow in the Northeast / Mid Atlantic US but that could be a stupid thing I have made up in my head....  (also I don't think this is widespread enough to count yet)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on October 28, 2018, 11:12:45 AM
Meanwhile a look at some data.

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover as at 27 October 2018 from https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

Eurasia Snow Water Equivalent - average,
Eurasia Snow Cover Extent       - average,

North America Snow Water Equivalent - more than 1 SD above average,
North America Snow Cover Extent       - average, very little snow in the last week or so (and some melting?).

Greenland is the same - accumulated snow to date below average.

So far this year is different from recent years.

Looking at GFS suggests that in the next few days continuing lowish snowfall pretty much everywhere, and the extreme -ve temp anomalies in Canada to lessen.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on October 28, 2018, 12:07:39 PM
I think one logical explanation (in the context of this thread) to the relatively low snow in NA is the high Beaufort and CAA sea ice extent this year. No open water, no lake effect.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 28, 2018, 06:22:05 PM
I think one logical explanation (in the context of this thread) to the relatively low snow in NA is the high Beaufort and CAA sea ice extent this year. No open water, no lake effect.

This is very good news for the permafrost as the ground will be exposed to the cold temps.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Sebastian Jones on October 28, 2018, 06:38:15 PM

This is very good news for the permafrost as the ground will be exposed to the cold temps.

Agreed. Here in the far N.W of Canada, hard up against Alaska, we still have no snow to speak of, but the ground has been frozen for weeks. It has also rained -two significant events- which has pooled and frozen, filling  depressions and voids with ice. Life is hard for sub-nivean fauna, and getting tough for those that graze, such as caribou.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 28, 2018, 07:17:42 PM
Had to Google subnivian.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2SoGHFM18I
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 28, 2018, 09:45:16 PM
After a break across Southern Canada SW of the Shield, winter looks to come raging back in full force the next few days, with all of Canada covered by 11/7. The EURO also has the 32F line crossing half of Hudson Bay by then. I was briefly worried about my 11/15 call for HB being 75% iced because it normally would be quite absurd but the latest forecast, IMO, makes it vaguely possible -- if not by then, 11/20, which is still record territory.

There should be MAJOR gains across Baffin through D10 as well. Also, regarding EURO verification, recently I have noticed it has been --

1) too snowy along the southern fringe of the snow front (but only the fringe)
2) slightly warm biased in its projections for Baffin
3) slightly warm biased for other SST areas under 30F, and slightly cold biased for SSTs between 30-32F, and again slightly warm biased for SSTs between 32-36F. I think it struggles with refreeze (understandable but impacts performance)

Finally, I think we will have an interesting "flash freeze" in northeast Hudson Bay this year as the ice front crosses an area of saltier 32F water in between Foxe Basin and HB. To its south, the water is substantially fresher, and as the ice front makes contact with this, there should be a very rapid freezeover of a fairly substantial area sometime around 11/10-15.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on November 01, 2018, 05:32:15 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/cur

Snow cover from Environment Canada as at 31/10/2018.

Above average in North America? - yes
Extraordinary levels ? - no
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 01, 2018, 08:30:59 PM
I think SWE technically is extraordinary as it is a record (I believe). Let's wait til Rutgers data comes out today re: total month and the claim can be verified.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 02, 2018, 04:09:49 AM
Rutgers still not out! :(
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on November 03, 2018, 10:46:48 AM
https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html

Environment Canada seasonal forecast for Nov 18 to Jan 19 issued on 31 October.
Suggests above average temps in Southern Canada with below average temps in Hudson Bay and along Baffin Bay almost to Newfoundland Island, which will have average temperatures. Above average precipitation in  Canada west of the Rockies and the NE corner.

Eastern Quebec and Newfoundland will be interesting as above average precipitation predicted where below average temps and above average temps areas are side by side.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on November 03, 2018, 01:17:40 PM
Canada - Rain or Snow?

It looks like next mid-week id an illustration of what I was trying to get at in the above post. There will be a big storm in NE Canada by next Wednesday - a mixture of rain and snow. (See first image)

At the same time temperatures will be well above freezing in the East of NE Canada, and well below freezing in the West of NE Canada. (see 2nd image).

A relatively small movement of warmth West will turn the snow to rain. A small shift of cold eastwards will turn the rain to snow.

One to watch - especially as Quebec / Newfoundland seems to be the key to a large portion of NA snowfall amounts.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 03, 2018, 02:41:39 PM
Gerontocrat,
You wrote "Suggests ... below average temps in Hudson Bay".  Actually, the map shows most of Hudson Bay having a 40% (or, in the south, more) chance of above average temperature; I think this means most of 60% change of near-average temperatures these next 3 months, and a small chance of below average temperatures.  Only in the northern and northeastern fringes of HB are below average temps predicted.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tealight on November 04, 2018, 02:03:34 PM
Hi Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover fans,

I'm still in the process of building my Albedo Warming model for the whole Northern Hemisphere. It's probably ready before Christmas.

So far I manged to get the NOAA data into a usable format and encoded the continents as subregions. What's still missing is a pixel area correction.

Since I got the snow extent data already I will then publish daily snow extent graphs as well. What do you think about the following graph combining all continents & sea ice into one graph? It's definitely different to any other product out there, but I'm not sure if it has too much colour on it. Changing them and the transparancy is of course no problem.

Edit: In the first picture the shaded regions are 1 standard deviation


Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 04, 2018, 04:58:24 PM
October monthly data is in from ESRL. I expected the cold in Canada but Greenland...! Greenland saw its lowest October temperature on record, and spots saw MONTHLY departures down to -6C.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 04, 2018, 05:05:34 PM
Here are the last six months of anomalies, i.e., "summertime" for Canada.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on November 04, 2018, 05:52:41 PM
 I like the graphs a lot. I think albedo could be difficult to deal with? I remember seeing a statistic that land was capturing around 7% of the energy imbalance from AGW although comprising 30% of the earth's surface.

Qu1: Winter. How are you dealing with land albedo- very different in forests c.f. tundra, especially when snow is there ? (Snow under the trees meaning albedo higher than snow covered tundra?)

Qu2: Summer. Heat captured by the sea stays in the sea. Most of the heat captured by land is sent back into space at night? Do forests retain heat better than tundra / grassland / deserts?

ps: I would not be surprised if the America graph was used by at least one person for a purpose for which it was not designed.

Waiting for a Xmas present

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on November 04, 2018, 06:14:14 PM
Gerontocrat,
You wrote "Suggests ... below average temps in Hudson Bay".  Actually, the map shows most of Hudson Bay having a 40% (or, in the south, more) chance of above average temperature; I think this means most of 60% change of near-average temperatures these next 3 months, and a small chance of below average temperatures.  Only in the northern and northeastern fringes of HB are below average temps predicted.
OK Tor,
post in haste and repent at leisure. Why is it being retired I have less spare time ?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Niall Dollard on November 04, 2018, 07:45:29 PM
What do you think about the following graph combining all continents & sea ice into one graph? It's definitely different to any other product out there, but I'm not sure if it has too much colour on it.

I like that graph, Tealight. Good to have the regional snows on the one graph.

Re too much colour info ? I think it's all clear - but if I was going to remove something I would take out the Sea Ice extent and leave it just all snow. But maybe you have reasons for contrasting it with the Arctic SIE.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 04, 2018, 08:01:43 PM
I like the graphs a lot. I think albedo could be difficult to deal with? I remember seeing a statistic that land was capturing around 7% of the energy imbalance from AGW although comprising 30% of the earth's surface.

Qu1: Winter. How are you dealing with land albedo- very different in forests c.f. tundra, especially when snow is there ? (Snow under the trees meaning albedo higher than snow covered tundra?)

Qu2: Summer. Heat captured by the sea stays in the sea. Most of the heat captured by land is sent back into space at night? Do forests retain heat better than tundra / grassland / deserts?

ps: I would not be surprised if the America graph was used by at least one person for a purpose for which it was not designed.

Waiting for a Xmas present
I agree! I think the graph is great. I think the one problem is quantifying albedo differentials based on snow depth (i.e., 6" vs. 12" vs. 36" are all different #s for albedo, especially depending on biome). But from an extent perspective it is a necessary and helpful start.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tealight on November 04, 2018, 08:21:33 PM
Qu1: Winter. How are you dealing with land albedo- very different in forests c.f. tundra, especially when snow is there ? (Snow under the trees meaning albedo higher than snow covered tundra?)

Qu2: Summer. Heat captured by the sea stays in the sea. Most of the heat captured by land is sent back into space at night? Do forests retain heat better than tundra / grassland / deserts?

Q1: For the anomaly the exact albedo value doesn't matter. It would only make the values a bit bigger or lower. I'm not trying to calculate a temperature or exact absorbed energy values. It's more a system to rank individual years against each other. But i will create an albedo mask for the final product. The different biomes correlate quite well with latitude and this is an easy way encode albedo values onto the map.

Q2: I guess forests retain heat much better than tundra & deserts but I'm not investigating it. In the long, long, long-term I might be able to use temperature from a gridded FDD map which is requested by some users here to estimate ground heat loss to space and where Permafrost melts.

eg:
below freezing without snow cover = big heat loss
below freezing with snow cover = low heat loss
above freezing with snow cover = low heat gain
above freezing without snow cover = high heat gain
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on November 04, 2018, 09:12:27 PM
Qu1: Winter. How are you dealing with land albedo- very different in forests c.f. tundra, especially when snow is there ? (Snow under the trees meaning albedo higher than snow covered tundra?)

Qu2: Summer. Heat captured by the sea stays in the sea. Most of the heat captured by land is sent back into space at night? Do forests retain heat better than tundra / grassland / deserts?

Q1: For the anomaly the exact albedo value doesn't matter. It would only make the values a bit bigger or lower. I'm not trying to calculate a temperature or exact absorbed energy values. It's more a system to rank individual years against each other. But i will create an albedo mask for the final product. The different biomes correlate quite well with latitude and this is an easy way encode albedo values onto the map.

Q2: I guess forests retain heat much better than tundra & deserts but I'm not investigating it. In the long, long, long-term I might be able to use temperature from a gridded FDD map which is requested by some users here to estimate ground heat loss to space and where Permafrost melts.

eg:
below freezing without snow cover = big heat loss
below freezing with snow cover = low heat loss
above freezing with snow cover = low heat gain
above freezing without snow cover = high heat gain

"I can't wait for Xmas" (he fretted & whinged)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on November 04, 2018, 09:53:15 PM
Tealight, that is a wonderful graph. Seriously.
Here are some suggestions and questions, though it works well as is:
* What is the baseline period for the SD?
* I think a 2SD shading might be better to highlight really anomalous years, and avoid endless chatter about how we are over 1SD which will happen a lot.
* I agree ASI doesn't have to be in this graph, though for the NH albedo it's necessary of course.
* Knowing the most common comments about snow cover, can you separate to more sub-regions? Northern Asia (Siberia) vs. Southern Asia (Himalayas). Canada vs. USA, or even eastern Canada vs. western Canada. This is probably much harder on the masks, but even an approximate division to sub-regions would be great. These sub-regions could be in separate graphs if there's too much clutter.
* Will you also have a graph of regional SWE using snow thickness data? Some folks would be interested in that as well.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tealight on November 04, 2018, 11:31:22 PM
Hi oren,

* What is the baseline period for the SD?:
at the moment 1999-2017 (all fully available years)

* I think a 2SD shading might be better to highlight really anomalous years, and avoid endless chatter about how we are over 1SD which will happen a lot.
ok, noted


* I agree ASI doesn't have to be in this graph, though for the NH albedo it's necessary of course.
I included sea ice for a magnitude comparison against snow cover and a shape comparison (very slow melt & freeze compared to snow) But I can of course remove it. For the a seasonal zoom-in it's defenitly beneficial in summer.


* Knowing the most common comments about snow cover, can you separate to more sub-regions? Northern Asia (Siberia) vs. Southern Asia (Himalayas). Canada vs. USA, or even eastern Canada vs. western Canada. This is probably much harder on the masks, but even an approximate division to sub-regions would be great. These sub-regions could be in separate graphs if there's too much clutter.
That will cost you extra ;D
I could certainly define more regions with latitude/longitude lines. but do it is tedious for several regions. If you want graphs for special regions you can download the Landmask.png file and encode the map by drawing with a paint program of your choice over the land. (colour replacing). Then just save the new picture and send it back to me with the color code you used. I can then read the image and transform it into a mask. The resolution has to stay the same (450x550)

* Will you also have a graph of regional SWE using snow thickness data? Some folks would be interested in that as well.
Sorry, that's not part of the NOAA data.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 05, 2018, 12:12:36 AM
I have a question for you guys:

In the "Environmental Change Model" from Climate Reanalyzer, as Quebec gets substantially colder, its biomes shift from "Cool Conifer Forest" and "Forest-Tundra Transition" to "Moist Tundra-Alpine" and "Dry Tundra / Alpine" (-1C vs. 1979-2000). By -2C, "Dry Tundra / Alpine" takes over most of Quebec, as spots begin to glaciate, and by -3C, almost all of Quebec is glaciated.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/ecm/

My question for you all is, assuming 2018 is not a fluke, how many years of repeated summertime temperature anomalies of -2C or lower vs. 1979-2000 normals does it take to generate widespread biome destruction and displacement? I.E., how many cold summers where snow lasts for much longer than usual (or doesn't melt at all) does it take for the conifer forests to be destroyed?

My second question is, in what format does this destruction occur? When temps drop during summertime, does snow keep accumulating over the forest to the point where it is simply buried and turns to oil / etc underneath new glaciers? Or do the forests remain "visible" but dead, triggering very large fires (despite cooling) that further accelerate Greenland melt + additional cooling through carbon deposition and worsening meltwater runoff in the yr or two that follow?

I wonder if we may be looking at a looming ecological crisis, in Quebec in particular, beyond the ongoing global crisis?

My final note: it appears that the summer of 2018 was the coldest in Canada in the ESRL record with the exception of 1972 (another El Nino... coincidence?). The difference with 1972 vs. 2018 appears to be that 1) oceanic heat is much higher 2) Arctic heat is much higher 3) very cold summertime temps in Canada were INSUFFICIENT to upwell the massive reservoir of oceanic heat and balance the equation, as they apparently did in 1972, which means the reaction we are currently witnessing (++SWE) is more likely to continue in 2019 vs. whatever happened in the early 70s.

The other thing to note: in a direct 1972 to 2018 comparison, a very surprising area stands out as the only region with substantive negative departures. While parts of Canada have matched that year's cold, Greenland has exceeded it. It may be the case that 2018 has had Greenland's coldest summer in a very, very long while, even as the Arctic broiled to its warmest temperatures on record (overall) this year.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Sebastian Jones on November 05, 2018, 05:41:37 PM
I have a question for you guys:

In the "Environmental Change Model" from Climate Reanalyzer, as Quebec gets substantially colder, its biomes shift from "Cool Conifer Forest" and "Forest-Tundra Transition" to "Moist Tundra-Alpine" and "Dry Tundra / Alpine" (-1C vs. 1979-2000). By -2C, "Dry Tundra / Alpine" takes over most of Quebec, as spots begin to glaciate, and by -3C, almost all of Quebec is glaciated.
.........
My question for you all is,..... how many years of repeated summertime temperature anomalies of -2C or lower vs. 1979-2000 normals does it take to generate widespread biome destruction and displacement?

My second question is, in what format does this destruction occur? When temps drop during summertime, does snow keep accumulating over the forest to the point where it is simply buried and turns to oil / etc underneath new glaciers? Or do the forests remain "visible" but dead, triggering very large fires (despite cooling) ......


Your question is one about ecosystem change.
I have noodled through the Climate Analyzer tool as well, it is interesting and fun to play God and cool the earth and watch the glaciers appear and grow.
Typically, ecosystems, such as boreal forest, resist change, a form of ecological inertia. This is why a couple of cool or warm years does not dramatically change the landscape.
Sometimes conditions change enough so that the optimum ecosystem for the climate is different than what is currently in existence. Parts of the boreal forest in the west of Canada are currently experiencing a climate that would better suit Aspen Parkland. Eventually, slowly, the change could take place, but what usually happens is that some catastrophic event happens and the ecosystem that emerges is better suited to the climate. In the case of a warming (or cooling) boreal forest, that catastrophe is usually fire.
If the summer cooling is sufficiently large and abrupt, then yes, it would be possible for snows in the boreal forest to remain over the summer and accumulate until an ice cap appears.  I forget exactly where, but on one of Canada's arctic Islands, something like this has been documented: An ice cap retreated, and dead, flattened vegetation was found where the ice had been. Upon carbon dating the vegetation, it was found that the ice cap had grown, starting in the 12th century AD, by snows accumulating on the periphery of an existing ice cap and squashing and preserving the vegetation.
I hope this addresses your question, I apologize for the lack of references; I  could probably dig some up, but, fortunately for me, you are not my professor.... ;)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 05, 2018, 05:52:26 PM
I have a question for you guys:

In the "Environmental Change Model" from Climate Reanalyzer, as Quebec gets substantially colder, its biomes shift from "Cool Conifer Forest" and "Forest-Tundra Transition" to "Moist Tundra-Alpine" and "Dry Tundra / Alpine" (-1C vs. 1979-2000). By -2C, "Dry Tundra / Alpine" takes over most of Quebec, as spots begin to glaciate, and by -3C, almost all of Quebec is glaciated.
.........
My question for you all is,..... how many years of repeated summertime temperature anomalies of -2C or lower vs. 1979-2000 normals does it take to generate widespread biome destruction and displacement?

My second question is, in what format does this destruction occur? When temps drop during summertime, does snow keep accumulating over the forest to the point where it is simply buried and turns to oil / etc underneath new glaciers? Or do the forests remain "visible" but dead, triggering very large fires (despite cooling) ......


Your question is one about ecosystem change.
I have noodled through the Climate Analyzer tool as well, it is interesting and fun to play God and cool the earth and watch the glaciers appear and grow.
Typically, ecosystems, such as boreal forest, resist change, a form of ecological inertia. This is why a couple of cool or warm years does not dramatically change the landscape.
Sometimes conditions change enough so that the optimum ecosystem for the climate is different than what is currently in existence. Parts of the boreal forest in the west of Canada are currently experiencing a climate that would better suit Aspen Parkland. Eventually, slowly, the change could take place, but what usually happens is that some catastrophic event happens and the ecosystem that emerges is better suited to the climate. In the case of a warming (or cooling) boreal forest, that catastrophe is usually fire.
If the summer cooling is sufficiently large and abrupt, then yes, it would be possible for snows in the boreal forest to remain over the summer and accumulate until an ice cap appears.  I forget exactly where, but on one of Canada's arctic Islands, something like this has been documented: An ice cap retreated, and dead, flattened vegetation was found where the ice had been. Upon carbon dating the vegetation, it was found that the ice cap had grown, starting in the 12th century AD, by snows accumulating on the periphery of an existing ice cap and squashing and preserving the vegetation.
I hope this addresses your question, I apologize for the lack of references; I  could probably dig some up, but, fortunately for me, you are not my professor.... ;)
Fortunately for you, your answer was comprehensive and fantastic, and I am giving you an A+ for the response!  ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on November 05, 2018, 08:12:15 PM
I think it's going to continue a lot longer than 2019. Most of the earth's warming happend in the last 40 years. So how much melt was there in Greenland 40 years ago ? Somebody wrote that the water in the Nares Strait and Baffinbay flows from north to south. So these higher quantities of cold meltwater flow the entire sumer from the north of Greenland ( the west side) to the south of Greenland. And area that is receiving more cold meltwater from Canada trough the Hudson Bay during several months in spring. It's an accumulation of colder conditions during spring and summer, compared to 40 years ago. And like you can see on climate reanalizer, you almost always have an cold anomaly in that area. I don't see any reason why that would stop. The warmer all the rest gets the more cold meltwater will gather in that area.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Niall Dollard on November 06, 2018, 10:25:53 PM
NH snow cover for October 2018 was 20.06 million km2 which represents a positive anomaly of 2.52. A little less than the last two Octobers.

Above normal extent was evident over parts of west Russia, Yakutia and much of eastern and central Canada.

Below normal extent over Alaska and central Siberia.

The North American figure (which includes Greenland) was 9.67 million km2. This was the second greatest NA figure in the Rutgers series back to 1967. Just a little behind 2002 (9.76)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 06, 2018, 10:29:01 PM
NH snow cover for October 2018 was 20.06 million km2 which represents a positive anomaly of 2.52. A little less than the last two Octobers.

Above normal extent was evident over parts of west Russia, Yakutia and much of eastern and central Canada.

Below normal extent over Alaska and central Siberia.

The North American figure (which includes Greenland) was 9.67 million km2. This was the second greatest NA figure in the Rutgers series back to 1967. Just a little behind 2002 (9.76)

Finally out! Can't believe we were so close to 2002. SO CLOSE! The volume is higher this year, in any case.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 07, 2018, 03:09:03 AM


https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-017-3788-5

Abstract:

The impact of snow-atmosphere coupling on climate variability and extremes over North America is investigated using modeling experiments with the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). To this end, two CRCM5 simulations driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis for the 1981–2010 period are performed, where snow cover and depth are prescribed (uncoupled) in one simulation while they evolve interactively (coupled) during model integration in the second one. Results indicate systematic influence of snow cover and snow depth variability on the inter-annual variability of soil and air temperatures during winter and spring seasons. Inter-annual variability of air temperature is larger in the coupled simulation, with snow cover and depth variability accounting for 40–60% of winter temperature variability over the Mid-west, Northern Great Plains and over the Canadian Prairies. The contribution of snow variability reaches even more than 70% during spring and the regions of high snow-temperature coupling extend north of the boreal forests. The dominant process contributing to the snow-atmosphere coupling is the albedo effect in winter, while the hydrological effect controls the coupling in spring. Snow cover/depth variability at different locations is also found to affect extremes. For instance, variability of cold-spell characteristics is sensitive to snow cover/depth variation over the Mid-west and Northern Great Plains, whereas, warm-spell variability is sensitive to snow variation primarily in regions with climatologically extensive snow cover such as northeast Canada and the Rockies. Furthermore, snow-atmosphere interactions appear to have contributed to enhancing the number of cold spell days during the 2002 spring, which is the coldest recorded during the study period, by over 50%, over western North America. Additional results also provide useful information on the importance of the interactions of snow with large-scale mode of variability in modulating temperature extreme characteristics.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 08, 2018, 02:24:34 AM
Gawd! Get me my fainting couch. bbr has posted some research.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 08, 2018, 08:13:04 AM
Gawd! Get me my fainting couch. bbr has posted some research.
Get your fainting couch ready again. I think there is a good chance Boston sees 120-150"+ this winter and ends up completely paralyzed.

Snow-atmospheric coupling = impending catastrophe. We are so f*cked! 2017-18 was incredible and we are already so BEYOND last winter. WTF

(https://media.giphy.com/media/7OVR3Bbqk5VbD5ygaH/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 08, 2018, 08:43:53 AM
Finally: another thing to note!

Here is the SWE map as of 7/1/2018. The areas in red (300-400MM of accumulated SWE as of 7/1) survived the summer and are the toe-holds for re-glaciation (as evidenced by what has happened this autumn).

The threshold for summer coverage may be slightly higher further south, but I think this may be a good gauge for 2019's expansion (or not) on 2018's accumulation of anomalies. Any areas in red as of 7/1/2019 are probably likely to retain full coverage for the full year. Just something to keep in mind in seven more months...!

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Niall Dollard on November 08, 2018, 10:05:08 AM
An inventory and analysis of the glaciers and snow fields in the Torngat mountains of northern Labrador.

https://www.igsoc.org/journal/60/223/t13j195.html
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tealight on November 10, 2018, 02:28:26 PM
Hereby I officially launch the Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover page on CryosphereComputing. The automated update works for the images and from tomorrow the 10day gifs should update as well.

https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/snow-cover

The navigation sidebar was already overflowing, so I changed it to a top bar to keep things clean.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 10, 2018, 04:15:23 PM
An inventory and analysis of the glaciers and snow fields in the Torngat mountains of northern Labrador.

https://www.igsoc.org/journal/60/223/t13j195.html

That is a very informative piece of research. Thank you.

"More recently, in a pilot study of change detection on a
subset of the 96 largest Torngat glaciers, Brown and others
(2012) documented a 9% decrease in ice area between
2005 and 2008 using glacier outlines mapped from SPOT5
(Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre) imagery (2008) and
this study (2005). The recent reduction of glacier ice in the
Torngat Mountains was interpreted as a response to both
higher summer air temperatures and a multi-decadal decline
in winter precipitation (Brown and others, 2012). A full
analysis of change detection over the past 60 years for all
glaciers and ice masses in the Torngat Mountains, including
field surveys, is currently in progress."
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on November 10, 2018, 05:24:08 PM
And that study tells us that we are not currently talking about a lot ..

Quote
In 2005, 195 ice masses existed in the Torngat Mountains,
covering a total area of 24.51  +/-1.80 km2. The size
distribution is highly skewed to smaller ice masses, with
almost a third smaller than 0.05 km2 and only eight larger
than 0.5 km2 (Fig. 5). The 30 largest ice masses made up
almost 50% of the total ice area, whereas the 30 smallest ice
masses covered only 2.8% of the total area. The median ice
mass area was 0.07 km2 (range 0.01–1.26 km2), and the
median ice mass length was 0.33 km (range 0.04–2 km). In
total, 49 ice masses were longer than 0.5 km, 8 longer than
1.0 km and 15 shorter than 0.1 km. Ice masses in the Torngat
Mountains span slightly more than 1° of latitude (58.6–
59.9° N; 170 km) and occur within 50 km of the Labrador
Sea (Table 1; Fig. 1). Ice masses more commonly occur in
the fretted mountain region (68%; 80% of ice area) adjacent
to the Labrador Sea (Table 1). For the most part, ice mass
forms are evenly distributed across the region, except for
summit ice masses that predominantly occur inland and
farther north.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 10, 2018, 05:29:01 PM
And that study tells us that we are not currently talking about a lot ..

Quote
In 2005, 195 ice masses existed in the Torngat Mountains,
covering a total area of 24.51  +/-1.80 km2. The size
distribution is highly skewed to smaller ice masses, with
almost a third smaller than 0.05 km2 and only eight larger
than 0.5 km2 (Fig. 5). The 30 largest ice masses made up
almost 50% of the total ice area, whereas the 30 smallest ice
masses covered only 2.8% of the total area. The median ice
mass area was 0.07 km2 (range 0.01–1.26 km2), and the
median ice mass length was 0.33 km (range 0.04–2 km). In
total, 49 ice masses were longer than 0.5 km, 8 longer than
1.0 km and 15 shorter than 0.1 km. Ice masses in the Torngat
Mountains span slightly more than 1° of latitude (58.6–
59.9° N; 170 km) and occur within 50 km of the Labrador
Sea (Table 1; Fig. 1). Ice masses more commonly occur in
the fretted mountain region (68%; 80% of ice area) adjacent
to the Labrador Sea (Table 1). For the most part, ice mass
forms are evenly distributed across the region, except for
summit ice masses that predominantly occur inland and
farther north.
The study also ended in 2012 which was (IMO) the inflection point re: moisture feedbacks / +albedo compensating for -sea ice. They all end around that time. Another ten years of data will be very telling, assuming we are still collecting data in 2028 and things haven't gone off the deep end by then.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 10, 2018, 06:05:43 PM
The study also ended in 2012 which was (IMO) the inflection point re: moisture feedbacks / +albedo compensating for -sea ice. They all end around that time. Another ten years of data will be very telling, assuming we are still collecting data in 2028 and things haven't gone off the deep end by then.

You are correct and the study only looked at the largest 96 ice masses. The smaller ice masses, a total of 99 were ignored in this study. However, I would like to allay your concerns that further study may not occur. A more thorough study of all of the ice masses is now underway.

"A full analysis of change detection over the past 60 years for all glaciers and ice masses in the Torngat Mountains, including field surveys, is currently in progress."
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on November 10, 2018, 07:49:21 PM
Tealight, maybe a stupid question. But why is Greenland white ? Is there no data about it, or did nothing changed, or.......
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 10, 2018, 08:42:13 PM
Since you cut off the legend, I have no idea what this map is measuring...above or below the mean of what?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on November 10, 2018, 08:52:09 PM
It's snow and ice extent anomaly.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on November 10, 2018, 08:58:07 PM
And i think something like volume. Why else would it have the different colors, light and dark blue.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 10, 2018, 09:00:30 PM
OK. I'll hazard a guess. White areas are then areas where snow is present where it is normally present at this time.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 10, 2018, 09:02:13 PM
And i think something like volume. Why else would it have the different colors, light and dark blue.

Where did you get the chart from? Attach with the legend and a link to the site and we can have a worthwhile discussion.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on November 10, 2018, 09:20:14 PM
Thank you Tealight. Awesome. I especially liked the animation.
To those asking, my guess is the blue shows more snow extent than climatology, and the red means less extent.
This can't show volume as the database (NOAA?) has no information on thickness.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on November 10, 2018, 09:57:48 PM
Shared Humanity, almost on top of this page, the last post from Tealight. There is a link to the site.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tealight on November 10, 2018, 10:27:42 PM
Thank you Tealight. Awesome. I especially liked the animation.
To those asking, my guess is the blue shows more snow extent than climatology, and the red means less extent.
This can't show volume as the database (NOAA?) has no information on thickness.

That's correct. I wanted to include a colormap for the snow cover anomaly map, but I didn't manage to put it on the map (in the Atlantic Ocean). By default matplotlib only allows the colormap on the side which would cut a huge part of the actual map away. This would greatly distord the data compared to the normal extent map.

At the moment I can only change the description in the bottom right corner. Maybe red: below climatology, blue: above climatology, white: same as climatology
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 11, 2018, 03:41:39 AM
Shared Humanity, almost on top of this page, the last post from Tealight. There is a link to the site.

Thanks
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on November 11, 2018, 05:19:33 AM
Now i see, it's the same as with sea ice extent/area. Like 50 % of the land is covered with snow. The 10 day animation shows plenty of red further south in the US, and more dark blue further to the north. Would that not create some kind of contrast ? A warming south, and i don't know cooling, but at least a faster with snow covered north.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tealight on November 11, 2018, 11:33:00 AM
I have changed the description to match the colorbar in descriptive words. Is it any clearer? The deepest red and blue are +-100% departure from the climatology, not the +-50% on my sea ice area. It's because the snow extent data can only be 0 or 100%, nothing in between. With a +-50% colormap it would look too extreme.


The second attachment shows the actual colorbar and where it's supposed to be.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 13, 2018, 03:59:30 AM
Looks like North America might be making a run for another record month. The SWE departure is even more impressive.

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/na_sce.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 13, 2018, 06:25:06 AM
We are so screwed

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018111300/fv3p_T2ma_namer_34.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 13, 2018, 05:22:27 PM
o boy

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/na_swe.png)

who could have ever seen something like this happening

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/na_sce.png)

whatever will we do
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tealight on November 13, 2018, 06:10:19 PM
I changed my normal snow cover map to include daily change. Now red indicates snow cover loss from the pervious day and blue indicates snow cover gain. I feel this change makes it a bit more informative than before.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on November 13, 2018, 07:17:04 PM
He bbr, do you know how they calculate that snow water equivalent ? last year there was some 400 to 500 km3 of snow water extra than average. How much snow is that, is it like 1/10 of a m3 melt water for 1 m3 of snow. Or is it like 50 % ........?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 13, 2018, 07:37:10 PM
He bbr, do you know how they calculate that snow water equivalent ? last year there was some 400 to 500 km3 of snow water extra than average. How much snow is that, is it like 1/10 of a m3 melt water for 1 m3 of snow. Or is it like 50 % ........?
I have no idea. I consider 1KM^3 of SWE to be the same equivalent to 1KM^3 of sea ice but I could be wrong.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on November 13, 2018, 08:08:14 PM
They are talking about snow water. That's after the snow melted i would think . For normal snow it's like 10%, old snow 50 %, ice 100 %. So how much snow was there extra, 500 km3 represents a layer of 5 million km2 a meter thick at 10 %.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Red on November 13, 2018, 08:36:43 PM
Snow water equivalent (SWE) is the depth of water that would result if the snow mass melted completely.

From the perspective of water resources, flood prediction, and engineering, the most important observation (and one not taken by most weather observers) is the "Snow Water Equivalent of Total Snow Depth". This measurement is very important as it represents the amount of water contained in the total snowpack that is available to melt and run off when temperatures rise. Thus it can be used to forecast future water supplies and assess the potential for flooding. It can also be converted to weight per area. This number is critical for monitoring the weight of snow on roofs. For example, if there are 10 inches of old packed snow on the ground, this may contain 3.0" of water content which equates to nearly 15 pounds per square foot if uniformly distributed on the ground and roofs.

https://madis-data.noaa.gov/snow_measurements.html
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 14, 2018, 08:13:15 AM
This is very frightening. I would imagine we will see a very severe outcome as this heat comes up against the snowfall about to fall across the Northeast (several events over next ten days per 00z EURO). This is D10 water temp vs. same time 2017. The Gulf Stream bulge got worse tonight. I would say it may be unprecedented for time of year.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/ftdVXIHphN5idpigoO/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 15, 2018, 07:30:02 PM
^map is wrong -- the EURO apparently has a bias where it creates a crazed Gulf Stream each and every run.

Also: first snow of the season now falling in NYC with a few inches expected! Very, very early.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 16, 2018, 07:32:52 AM
6.4" at Central Park, largest early season snowstorm on record...! It was ridiculous today.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 18, 2018, 05:32:16 AM
Looks like North America is once again pushing 50%+ vs normal SWE.

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/na_swe.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on November 21, 2018, 07:41:02 PM
I think things are a-changing in North of 49 Ameriky. SCE and SWE halted their remorseless rise in the last three days or so.

Somewhat warmer weather moving across West to East by the weekend.. Still very cold in the far north of Central Canada and cold, but less cold, elsewhere. Signs of less extreme snowfall.

Maybe a continuing slow down in Baffin Sea freezeup, and later a freeze slow down in the southern half of Hudson Bay.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on November 23, 2018, 01:39:22 PM
North America Snow Cover Extent stalled and now just within 1SD above average.
Snow Water Equivalent continues to rise.

Some snow, but nothing extreme, in he next few days (apart from the Rockies)
Looks like some lessening in extreme cold  in central and eastern Canada until the end of the month, but then extreme cold may return.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 23, 2018, 08:17:05 PM
Yep, looks like the tropospheric PV (?) has moved to Europe. We will probably see "normal" gains for a week or two before it returns and rapid gains resume.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on November 25, 2018, 12:02:58 PM
Data from https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

North America Snow as at 24 Nov

Snow Cover Extent (SCE) continues to decline.
Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) continues to increase but slower.

There will be snow (but not a lot?) for the rest of November apart from the Canadian Rockies.

I also attach a precipitation map from GFS for Monday, just because that storm about to hit the Canadian Rockies is really impressive.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 25, 2018, 02:32:28 PM
That storm moving out of the Rockies is looking rather impressive.  I suspect it will increase both values in the coming days.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tealight on November 25, 2018, 09:39:49 PM
A small preview to show that albedo doesn't matter in winter. Currently Greenland absorbs the same amount of energy as the Northern Atlantic (none). Without a coastmask there is just a big empty void on the map.

1st image: absorbed solar radiation
2nd Image: absorbed solar radiation anomaly
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tealight on November 28, 2018, 12:59:06 AM
I calculated how long in each year (2000-2017) a gridcell is covered by snow or ice. The presentation is quite bad with google sites so I recommend viewing the images in the google drive folder or even better download the netcdf file and choose the visualization yourself.

NetCDF & Images:
https://drive.google.com/drive/u/1/folders/1QCM9lVx6tg0QGQXgK8NBZmKkYHLQN940

Website:
https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/analysis/snow-covered-days
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on November 28, 2018, 01:28:26 AM
I calculated how long in each year (2000-2017) a gridcell is covered by snow or ice.
Wonderful images. Kudos to you Tealight.
Do you have a calculation of the average over the 2000-2017 period? And if so, can you make images that show departure from the average?
Then we can all reach consistent conclusions about the durability of snow in a particular year.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: uniquorn on November 28, 2018, 10:34:07 PM
I calculated how long in each year (2000-2017) a gridcell is covered by snow or ice. <snippage>
Nice. Animation of 2000-2018(until nov24).
Nico, the scale has shifted on 2018
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tealight on November 28, 2018, 11:08:47 PM
Do you have a calculation of the average over the 2000-2017 period? And if so, can you make images that show departure from the average?
Then we can all reach consistent conclusions about the durability of snow in a particular year.

nice idea. does this look good?
https://drive.google.com/drive/u/1/folders/1-3d5Vx6JvYQ-c6Beh8Ttks2lII_aRHBU

Nico, the scale has shifted on 2018

Well 2018 hasn't finished yet so the scale has to finish early too.

Edit: after some tedious file formatting I managed to get the pre 1999 data into a useful format. Now 1998 & 1999 is included in full as well. 1997 starts on 5th February so I only made a normal daycount with an adjusted scale. An anomaly map would show very unrealistic negative values
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on November 29, 2018, 01:19:45 AM
Do you have a calculation of the average over the 2000-2017 period? And if so, can you make images that show departure from the average?
Then we can all reach consistent conclusions about the durability of snow in a particular year.

nice idea. does this look good?
https://drive.google.com/drive/u/1/folders/1-3d5Vx6JvYQ-c6Beh8Ttks2lII_aRHBU
Yes.
I also think the actual average map is of interest, as it can show which specific points and areas tend to be more or less snow-covered.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 29, 2018, 07:19:01 AM
Love this map! New England is probably a good match for Quebec re: totals ranging *up* to 750%+ of normal for the period.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tealight on November 29, 2018, 08:19:01 PM
I also think the actual average map is of interest, as it can show which specific points and areas tend to be more or less snow-covered.

Ok here is a map of the 2000-2017 mean snow coverage. Do you like the colorbar better with inconsistent ticks of 90 days & last one of 95 instead of the three 100 day ticks?

Full size at:
https://drive.google.com/drive/u/1/folders/19b4bnBcnv7Ho3nbmjubMnwVJy2tkP1F7
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on November 29, 2018, 08:56:02 PM
Thanks Tealight. I like everything about this map. The color bar ia fine with the 90/95 ticks.

I do note that the very northern tip of Quebec (the mountains?) is prone to very long snow coverage. That's where the "signs of impending glaciation" were claimed earlier this year.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on December 01, 2018, 09:46:01 PM
Time for the Farmers' Almanacs, otherwise known as Environment Canada and the US Climate Prediction Center.

USA
Temps Dec to Feb above average just about everywhere, except towards the South and East. Really warm Alaska.
May be dryer than normal around the Great Lakes and wetter in Alaska, elsewhere average or below.

Canada
Temps above average from Pacific Coast north to the Beaufort and eastern CAA. Colder for  Hudson Bay and N.E. areas. Elsewhere average.
Rain/snow pretty much average all over.

Me, I am off to consult The Runes.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on December 02, 2018, 12:06:05 PM
Having peered into the future with low confidence, here with high confidence is some snow data from https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 1st December.

Snow extent (SCE) in North America has basically stalled as the extreme cold diminished. But snow mass SWE) continues to increase. (graphs attached)

Snow extent in Eurasia is at average while snow mass continues to be at about 1 sd above average. (no images attached).

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on December 02, 2018, 06:34:43 PM
Thanks Tealight. I like everything about this map. The color bar ia fine with the 90/95 ticks.

I do note that the very northern tip of Quebec (the mountains?) is prone to very long snow coverage. That's where the "signs of impending glaciation" were claimed earlier this year.

It would appear that most of Quebec has snow cover in excess of 180 days per year.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on December 02, 2018, 06:45:01 PM
Having peered into the future with low confidence, here with high confidence is some snow data from https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 1st December.

Snow extent (SCE) in North America has basically stalled as the extreme cold diminished. But snow mass SWE) continues to increase. (graphs attached)

Snow extent in Eurasia is at average while snow mass continues to be at about 1 sd above average. (no images attached).

So, where temperatures are cold enough to support snow, we see heavier wetter snows, deep accumulation and positive snow mass anomalies as a result of the higher moisture load in our warming atmosphere. Meanwhile, as the more southern latitudes warm, we do not see similar extent anomalies.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on December 02, 2018, 09:19:32 PM
I calculated how long in each year (2000-2017) a gridcell is covered by snow or ice.
Hullo Tealight,

The images are striking to say the least. I remember a post from you some time ago how this was a new big project and Xmas was your deadline. Xmas came early.

What fascinates me is that you have the data by latitude. Are you producing numeric / graphical analyses of snow-days by latitude (and by region) over time? I ask this as studies say more snow predicted at high latitudes due to increased water in the atmosphere but as temperatures warm presumably snow should melt earlier especially at lower latitudes - the snow-line moving north.

My brain just can't get anywhere comparing the yearly maps as a movie, and putting years next to each other can be downright misleading as in the attached image of 2001 and 2017 - 2017 being a very snowy year.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on December 02, 2018, 11:40:35 PM
Gerontocrat, bear in mind that Tealight's project deals only with snow extent, not thickness/SWE.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tealight on December 03, 2018, 02:42:59 AM
Hullo Tealight,

The images are striking to say the least. I remember a post from you some time ago how this was a new big project and Xmas was your deadline. Xmas came early.

No my big project is to calculate an albedo warming potential from the snow cover data with consideration of vegetation. The snow daycount map was just a small thing I felt like doing in the mean time. It took maybe 2-3 hours including all the visualization refinements. I already had most of the nessecary code from my sea ice analysis. When I feel like it I will also calculate snow melt days and snow fall days. I don't know exactly how yet because in the mid latitudes snow falls and melts several times a year.

What fascinates me is that you have the data by latitude. Are you producing numeric / graphical analyses of snow-days by latitude (and by region) over time? I ask this as studies say more snow predicted at high latitudes due to increased water in the atmosphere but as temperatures warm presumably snow should melt earlier especially at lower latitudes - the snow-line moving north.

Could be an interesting analysis, but you would need to seperate at least the continents. European snow is far further north than in America.

-------------------------

With my albedo warming potential it's easy to draw rough biome boundaries, but getting groundcover right for something like mountain ranges is maybe beyond my capabilities. I attached an AWP map with my current biome map. The different biomes are certainly visible,but might be off by a few pixel (1pixel=24km at 60N)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: TerryM on December 03, 2018, 03:58:14 AM
Tealight


I wonder if you could explain your biome map to some extent.


Thanks in advance.
Terry
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Rob Dekker on December 03, 2018, 09:39:27 AM
This may have come up before, but just in case it didn't :
Here is the Northern Hemisphere snow extent according to Environment Canada :

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/nh_sce.png)

When you look at the snow extent in August/September, you see that snow extent was well above average (and even well above one sigma above average) in the 'flat' time during the summer of 2018.

Why was that ?

Was there a particular area of snow that failed to melt out during the summer of 2018 ?
Or is this some anomaly in the measurements this year ?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on December 03, 2018, 09:42:45 AM
This may have come up before, but just in case it didn't :
Here is the Northern Hemisphere snow extent according to Environment Canada :

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/nh_sce.png)

When you look at the snow extent in August/September, you see that snow extent was well above average (and even well above one sigma above average) in the 'flat' time during the summer of 2018.

Why was that ?

Was there a particular area of snow that failed to melt out during the summer of 2018 ?
Or is this some anomaly in the measurements this year ?
I would think it was due to CAA retaining full summertime coverage in many spots, as well as the Western Himalayas having +coverage v. normal.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Rob Dekker on December 04, 2018, 09:28:38 AM
Quote
I would think it was due to CAA retaining full summertime coverage in many spots, as well as the Western Himalayas having +coverage v. normal.

Could be, but NOAA does not seem to show any anomaly in August :

(https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/images/multisensor/timeseries/multisensor_4km_nh_snow_extent_by_year_graph.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Rob Dekker on December 04, 2018, 09:34:11 AM
And neither does Rutgers Snow Lab

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Rob Dekker on December 04, 2018, 09:36:33 AM
Could it be that Environment Canada is just off ?
Does anyone know which data source they use to determine snow cover extent ?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on December 04, 2018, 02:22:19 PM
Could it be that Environment Canada is just off ?
Does anyone know which data source they use to determine snow cover extent ?
EC actually does manual / human map output based on multiple satellites. NSIDC and Rutgers are strictly satellite pixels. The EURO is probably the most accurate but IDK where that data can be found.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on December 04, 2018, 06:38:40 PM
When will I get credit for harping on this continuously... probably never but that's OK  8)

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on December 04, 2018, 06:50:15 PM
When will I get credit for harping on this continuously... probably never but that's OK  8)
f you posted links (e.g. a link to these graphs) it might help.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on December 04, 2018, 07:21:06 PM
When will I get credit for harping on this continuously... probably never but that's OK  8)
f you posted links (e.g. a link to these graphs) it might help.
https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/index.php

Also: I think these graphs show something very interesting happening. The Northern Hemisphere trend is sharply positive since 07-08. But North AMERICA has been trending positive through the decades, slowly but surely (rather, the trend in NAmerica has been more consistent, especially in recent years, when it has begun outpacing Eurasia -- not the case previously). It looks as if snow-mass-balance (and extent) is shifting towards Greenland (i.e. North America) which makes sense as it is the largest extant ice sheet remaining in the NHEM, and the Arctic Ocean is increasingly the un-Arctic, prohibiting Greenland airmasses from flowing as freely as they used to across to Eurasia.

I wonder if this is also partially due to local feedbacks to Eurasia (+methane from ESS etc, and melting permafrost everywhere else in Siberia)??
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: magnamentis on December 04, 2018, 10:53:59 PM
the reason to post anything should be to share information and discuss possible solutions and workarounds for the problems at hand. seeking fame (credits) is exactly why projects, even with the right goals in mind originally, start to fall apart as soon the worst is over to simply build up a new flawed system.

ultimately it's the motives that make the difference whether anything is sustainable and
holds long term.

this applies to everything, not only climate risks.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on December 04, 2018, 10:59:58 PM
When will I get credit for harping on this continuously... probably never but that's OK  8)
You would get much more credit for focusing on important snow issues if you didn't insist on confounding this with impending glaciation.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Grubbegrabben on December 04, 2018, 11:45:53 PM
When will I get credit for harping on this continuously... probably never but that's OK  8)
You would get much more credit for focusing on important snow issues if you didn't insist on confounding this with impending glaciation.

bbr2314 post #5 (out of 1515). The only change is the expected timespan. Down from a few centuries to... next week?

Question:

The Hansen maps show declines in temperatures surrounding areas affected by the NATL cold pool, with anomalies increasing (in a negative direction) as the Greenland melt accelerates.

Could the lingering Hudson Bay ice and the very cold Quebec this summer also be a result of this, and if the positive feedback continues accelerating, perhaps it's possible that higher elevations of both Scotland and Quebec see re-glaciation over the next few centuries, while Greenland gradually melts out?

On topic: Snow cover being more than 1 standard deviation off compared to historical data - is that such a big deal? For a normal  distribution only 68% of the samples are expected to be within +/- 1 SD. If the trend over the years is positive even more samples would be expected to be over +1 SD.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: TerryM on December 05, 2018, 12:49:49 AM
When will I get credit for harping on this continuously... probably never but that's OK  8)


He asks continuously. ::)
Terry
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on December 05, 2018, 01:24:39 AM
the reason to post anything should be to share information and discuss possible solutions and workarounds for the problems at hand. seeking fame (credits) is exactly why projects, even with the right goals in mind originally, start to fall apart as soon the worst is over to simply build up a new flawed system.

ultimately it's the motives that make the difference whether anything is sustainable and
holds long term.

this applies to everything, not only climate risks.
im already famous dont need a person who hates ukrainians like terrym to qualify myself thx
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on December 05, 2018, 01:28:14 AM
When will I get credit for harping on this continuously... probably never but that's OK  8)
You would get much more credit for focusing on important snow issues if you didn't insist on confounding this with impending glaciation.

bbr2314 post #5 (out of 1515). The only change is the expected timespan. Down from a few centuries to... next week?

Question:

The Hansen maps show declines in temperatures surrounding areas affected by the NATL cold pool, with anomalies increasing (in a negative direction) as the Greenland melt accelerates.

Could the lingering Hudson Bay ice and the very cold Quebec this summer also be a result of this, and if the positive feedback continues accelerating, perhaps it's possible that higher elevations of both Scotland and Quebec see re-glaciation over the next few centuries, while Greenland gradually melts out?

On topic: Snow cover being more than 1 standard deviation off compared to historical data - is that such a big deal? For a normal  distribution only 68% of the samples are expected to be within +/- 1 SD. If the trend over the years is positive even more samples would be expected to be over +1 SD.
If the Younger Dryas is an indicator it could occur within a decade. Perhaps the 70s were such an occurrence, aborted by +GHGs / abrupt end to -insolation due to SO2. Now we pay the piper? IDK.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on December 05, 2018, 01:30:06 AM
When will I get credit for harping on this continuously... probably never but that's OK  8)
You would get much more credit for focusing on important snow issues if you didn't insist on confounding this with impending glaciation.
I think the two issues are inextricable. Greenland gained mass balance this year (so impending glaciation is now actual advance, at least for Greenland). How can people reconcile +GHGs at some ridiculous # vs. the last mass gain in Greenland (1972) versus the current state where the same is occurring if glaciation is not impending? It does not matter if this glaciation lasts a few hundred years -- we will all be dead by 2100, that is the relevant timeframe.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: be cause on December 05, 2018, 11:30:24 AM
sounds like a Trumpette ..
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on December 05, 2018, 01:44:39 PM
Greenland gained mass balance this year (so impending glaciation is now actual advance, at least for Greenland).
It is possible that Greenland gained mass in the Sep 16 to Aug 17 year, as surface mass balance (SMB) increased by more than 200 GT above average. It is possible, but less likely, that Greenland gained mass in the Sep 17 to Aug 18 year, as surface mass balance (SMB) increased by about 150 GT above average. But we do not know the extent of mass loss from calving as there is no GRACE data. Therefore your statement is a maybe, not a fact. We may have new GRACE data from January 2019 to tell us the change in Greenland's mass from early 2017.

Meanwhile, as far this the 2018-19 year's snow-cover is concerned, (the subject of this thread), the snow in North America is above average all studies predict as the long-term trend, but not totally out of wack. It looks possible that for the next few days, snowfall in North America will be not so much, and extent may go down a bit as relative warmth replaces relative cold from West to East.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on December 05, 2018, 04:44:15 PM
Greenland gained mass balance this year (so impending glaciation is now actual advance, at least for Greenland).
It is possible that Greenland gained mass in the Sep 16 to Aug 17 year, as surface mass balance (SMB) increased by more than 200 GT above average. It is possible, but less likely, that Greenland gained mass in the Sep 17 to Aug 18 year, as surface mass balance (SMB) increased by about 150 GT above average. But we do not know the extent of mass loss from calving as there is no GRACE data. Therefore your statement is a maybe, not a fact. We may have new GRACE data from January 2019 to tell us the change in Greenland's mass from early 2017.

Meanwhile, as far this the 2018-19 year's snow-cover is concerned, (the subject of this thread), the snow in North America is above average all studies predict as the long-term trend, but not totally out of wack. It looks possible that for the next few days, snowfall in North America will be not so much, and extent may go down a bit as relative warmth replaces relative cold from West to East.
I would call Sept, Nov, and #2 Oct records "out of whack". My statement re: Greenland is based on NSIDC's report, but you could be correct re: calving as well -- link for convenience

https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on December 05, 2018, 07:46:36 PM
Greenland gained mass balance this year (so impending glaciation is now actual advance, at least for Greenland).
It is possible that Greenland gained mass in the Sep 16 to Aug 17 year, as surface mass balance (SMB) increased by more than 200 GT above average. It is possible, but less likely, that Greenland gained mass in the Sep 17 to Aug 18 year, as surface mass balance (SMB) increased by about 150 GT above average. But we do not know the extent of mass loss from calving as there is no GRACE data. Therefore your statement is a maybe, not a fact. We may have new GRACE data from January 2019 to tell us the change in Greenland's mass from early 2017.

Meanwhile, as far this the 2018-19 year's snow-cover is concerned, (the subject of this thread), the snow in North America is above average all studies predict as the long-term trend, but not totally out of wack. It looks possible that for the next few days, snowfall in North America will be not so much, and extent may go down a bit as relative warmth replaces relative cold from West to East.
I would call Sept, Nov, and #2 Oct records "out of whack". My statement re: Greenland is based on NSIDC's report, but you could be correct re: calving as well -- link for convenience

https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

And here is the quote from https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/. Definitely a maybe.
Quote
The net change in (2018) mass of the ice sheet overall, including this higher discharge of ice directly into the ocean, is not clear at this point but may be a smaller loss or even a small gain. This is similar to our assessment for 2017, and in sharp contrast to the conditions for the preceding decade.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Wherestheice on December 05, 2018, 09:00:54 PM
Greenland is not heading towards glaciation. It is melting. This is scientific fact. And there is no evidence to suggest the loss of ice will stop. A few years of little gain mean nothing in a downward trend. Weather is not climate.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKKYt6fWob8

With all do respect bbr, come back in 10 years with clear evidence that support your claims, because the current science of climate science does not.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on December 06, 2018, 10:35:29 PM
Meanwhile - back to snow.
An interesting 5 days ahead in N.America. While most of North America looks like being almost free of snow, Storm Diego seems due to dump a load of snow and ice all along the southern plains and the Appalachians.
https://www.wunderground.com/news/storms/winter/news/2018-12-05-winter-storm-diego-snow-ice-forecast-southern-plains-appalachians

Being that far south and this being early winter, will it stay or will it melt afterwards?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Niall Dollard on December 07, 2018, 12:14:08 AM
Update on the monthly Rutgers NH snow anomalies. Like the past couple of years, November saw another positive anomaly. Extent was 37.77 million km2, which is an anomaly of +3.81.

Positive anomalies came from much of North America and Kazakhstan.
Negative anomalies were over much of Europe/Western Russia and Mongolia.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on December 07, 2018, 08:00:54 PM
Just a .... little bit... of snow coming to British Columbia... liquid equivalents of 10"+ in spots and only through D6-7!!!

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on December 11, 2018, 07:33:28 PM
The snow will be gone in a couple days, but still, 2 feet.....

https://watchers.news/2018/12/10/winter-storm-diego/
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on December 11, 2018, 09:27:54 PM
From the NOAA 2018 Arctic Report Card ftp://ftp.oar.noaa.gov/arctic/documents/ArcticReportCard_full_report2018.pdf

Note that the quote below is about Arctic snow at 60+ North, i.e. excludes snow at lower latitudes.
Quote
Despite anomalously high SCE during the 2017 melt season and anomalously high SWE during the 2018 melt season (both primarily observed over the Eurasian continent), long-term trends for both SCE and SWE remain negative. The trends in Arctic SCE over the 1981-2018 period are -0.1%/decade, -3.4%/decade, and -14.9%/decade for April, May, and June, respectively. The April trend in Arctic SWE over the 1981-2018 period is -2.5%/decade, yielding a decrease of about 10% over the entire Arctic since 1981. The loss of spring snow cover in June is approximately the same magnitude as September sea ice extent loss. April SWE trends (near the timing of Arctic SWE maximum) are weaker because they are less sensitive to temperature increases than SCE and more strongly influenced by precipitation trends.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on December 12, 2018, 10:13:15 AM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current  (refresh the page to get latest day data)

North America Snow Cover Extent stalled again, though snow water equivalent still increasing.

Looks like extent could retreat north as warmth spreads across from West to East.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on December 13, 2018, 07:51:14 PM
Western USA snowpack season decline from the AGU meeting

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46547064

Climate change is 'shrinking winter'
Snowy mountain winters are being "squeezed" by climate change, according to scientists in California.

Quote
Researchers who studied the winter snowfall in the mountains there revealed that rising temperatures are reducing the period during which snow is on the ground in the mountains - snow that millions rely on for their fresh water.

They presented their findings at the American Geophysical Union meeting - the world's largest gathering of Earth and space scientists.

"Our winters are getting sick and we know why," said Prof Amato Evan, from the Scripps Research Institute in San Diego, who carried out the investigation. "It's climate change; it's rising temperatures."

He found that the length of time snow is on the ground there is continually "being squeezed" into a shorter period. And the early arrival of summer, he explained, is a driving force behind sometimes devastating wildfires.

"Particularly in a place like California where we get all of our precipitation during the winter time, that means that our summers are growing longer," he told BBC News. "And really what that means is our fire seasons are growing longer.

"We've got less snow, we've got a longer fire season, we've got infestations [of pests that thrive in warmer temperatures] - these ecological issues; it's a kind of perfect storm of really bad outcomes, which then result in - in some cases - these massively dramatic fires."
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tealight on December 14, 2018, 01:49:08 PM
I'm almost finished with my Northern Hemisphere AWP model, hopefully done this weekend. The most important part left is coding the calculations for each individual region and then the daily updates can start.

A proper documentation, long term graphs and other visulization will follow soon after.

In the regional breakdown it's impossible to create exact regions for each individuals preferences. So I chose my regions by considering geographic regions and international borders. (apart from mid latitude Asia, no one there is interested in it anyway)

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Neven on December 14, 2018, 01:54:43 PM
Awesome, Nico. That regional mask map looks just like the one for Arctic sea ice.  ;D
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on December 14, 2018, 02:55:59 PM
Cor blimey, Tealight.

Meanwhile, the anomaly in the south of North America should get pinker as warmth heads North in central and eastern N.A. and disposes of thin snow cover. Starting to show in data from https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 13 Dec.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on December 14, 2018, 04:25:24 PM
In the regional breakdown it's impossible to create exact regions for each individuals preferences. So I chose my regions by considering geographic regions and international borders. (apart from mid latitude Asia, no one there is interested in it anyway)
The regional breakdown is beyond perfect. Thanks.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tealight on December 16, 2018, 12:56:06 AM
The time has come  :)

After a few hours of coding and 1.5h of calculation the AWP and AWP_anomaly data for the Northern Hemisphere is ready to be explored. For eastern Canada, the most discussed Region here I already made two charts of the mean anomaly for April and May.

We have:
21 years * 365 days * 24 Regions * 2 variables = 367,920 values

That will take some time to get through and find all interesting parts. I hope some forum members can explore it too. The data is available as usual on Google Drive and now also on Github.

Google Drive:
https://drive.google.com/drive/u/1/folders/1MiBVuMjoG-TRBsJhwPiChJYF5lKlaaxC
Github:
https://github.com/NicoSun/CryosphereComputing/tree/master/ScienceData/Northern_Hemisphere_AWP
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on December 16, 2018, 01:49:17 PM
The time has come  :)

We have:
21 years * 365 days * 24 Regions * 2 variables = 367,920 values

That will take some time to get through and find all interesting parts.
I hope some forum members can explore it too. The data is available as usual on Google Drive and now also on Github.
I will try and boldly go where only Tealight has gone before.

Meanwhile,
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

Snow Cover Extent (SCE) in North America has declined sharply to around average as warmth heads north and east across the centre and East. This looks like continuing for a few days more. However, Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) continues to increase and is at somewhat more than +1 SD.

Looking at the 2017-18 snow season, it was SWE that went up beyond reason in Feb and March 2018 mainly due to a procession of North Easters dumping vast amounts of snow on N.E. Canada, SCE over North America in that period was well above normal,but not to the same extent.

I think Tealight has got his timing for getting his project on the street just about right.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tealight on December 17, 2018, 01:22:59 AM
I will try and boldly go where only Tealight has gone before.
...............
I think Tealight has got his timing for getting his project on the street just about right.

Thanks for helping out  :)   I would say its a year too late. Not only did we have major arguments here about albedo, but I also need to take a long break from Climate Science research. It's not so much of a time issue, but I need all my concentration and analysis power for my day job.

Anyway, the Near-Real-Time AWP page (soon daily updated) is coming along, but I'm not sure on the main graph. It's supposed to compare major Regions of the world. Canada and the USA are each large enough to put them into the same category as Europe, but the southern USA has almost never snow cover (see atached map) and is more similar in latitude to northern Africa. So for now I have excluded the two southern US regions. Apart from high altitude Tibet all other regions extent to around 35 degrees south.

I think I make at least 4 regional graphs. One for European subregions, one for Asia and one or two for North America. 8 regions might be a little too cluttered. Then it will be one graph for Canada + Alaska and one graph for US Pacific, US Rockies, US Mid-West and US North East

https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/awp/awp-northern-hemisphere

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on December 17, 2018, 03:25:17 AM
Can you possibly change the US / Canada regions and divide them based on the Continental Divide? It has typically served as the demarcation between cold & warmth across the continent so having regions that it splits as a cohesive whole likely undermines the purpose of AWP (IMO). I would also think it better to combine eastern Canada / Northeast US as one region, and the Midwest US/ western Canadian shield as another, instead of Canada vs. US.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on December 17, 2018, 12:24:27 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 16 December 2018

The decline in Snow Cover Extent (SCE) in North America is looking like maybe an event is unfolding.

SCE has declined by about 1 million km2 in the last 5 days or so to below average as warmth headed North and East across the centre and East. This looks like continuing for a few days more.

Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) also stalled on this day at somewhat more than +1 SD, and precipitation looks like being quite low over the next 5 days, and may fall as rain on the far NE seaboard.
___________________________________________________________________________
Caveat
Looking at the 2017-18 snow season, it was SWE that went up beyond reason in February and March 2018 mainly due to a procession of North Easters dumping vast amounts of snow on N.E. Canada. SCE over North America in that period was above normal, but not to the same extent.
_________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Sparkles on December 17, 2018, 12:37:19 PM
The time has come  :)

...

That will take some time to get through and find all interesting parts. I hope some forum members can explore it too.
Hi I am a longtime lurker, just retired from full-time IT a month ago after being contract IT developer for 40+ years, I was about to post asking for any projects to get involved in - this sounds great. I shall get going today with pleasure
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tealight on December 17, 2018, 11:22:14 PM
Can you possibly change the US / Canada regions and divide them based on the Continental Divide? It has typically served as the demarcation between cold & warmth across the continent so having regions that it splits as a cohesive whole likely undermines the purpose of AWP (IMO). I would also think it better to combine eastern Canada / Northeast US as one region, and the Midwest US/ western Canadian shield as another, instead of Canada vs. US.

I created the Rockymountain region specifically to cover the high altitude region, similar to Tibet to analyse snow cover change at different altitudes. The continental divide therefore has to be located in it.

Combining Canadian and US regions is not a good idea. Due to different latitudes the snow melt days and daily energy vary considerably. A combined graph would only average these two out, blurring the time and magnitude of significant melt periods. I would possibly create another region for the Canadian Rockys to seperate them from the Canadian shield.

The time has come  :)

...

That will take some time to get through and find all interesting parts. I hope some forum members can explore it too.
Hi I am a longtime lurker, just retired from full-time IT a month ago after being contract IT developer for 40+ years, I was about to post asking for any projects to get involved in - this sounds great. I shall get going today with pleasure

Hi Sparkles, thanks for joining the search. Feel free to post any questions or findings you have from the data.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on December 19, 2018, 12:28:37 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 18 December 2018

The decline in Snow Cover Extent (SCE) in North America is looking like maybe an event is unfolding.

SCE has now declined by about 1 million km2 in the last week or so to well below average as warmth headed North and East across the centre and East.

Snow looks like continuing to retreat in the centre and east of North America until the weekend until cold returns to most of the continent.

Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) also stalled on this day at close to +1 SD, and precipitation looks like being quite low over the next 5 days, and may fall as rain on the far NE seaboard.
___________________________________________________________________________
Caveat
Looking at the 2017-18 snow season, it was SWE that went up beyond reason in February and March 2018 mainly due to a procession of North Easters dumping vast amounts of snow on N.E. Canada. SCE over North America in that period was above normal, but not to the same extent.
_________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on December 19, 2018, 08:18:41 PM
That is one crazy looking graph. Looks like the approaching ice age may be postponed for 2019.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tor Bejnar on December 19, 2018, 08:40:11 PM
All it has to do is snow in Quebec (and not melt much next simmer, etc.).  The rest of NA can be dry or warm, as far as the "the next ice age glaciation is upon us" hypothesis goes, as I understand it.  (I believe this hypothesis will not pan out.) [Remember, we are in an interglacial period—the Holocene—of the current ice age (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age).]
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tealight on December 20, 2018, 02:39:36 PM
Very low snow cover in North America and East Asia. Europe on the other hand is above average. But according to my AWP model it doesn't matter much, because at December solstice the sun is too weak to signicantly take advantage of the low albedo. Only the USA had a noticable increase in absorbed solar energy.

I'm on holiday until New Year, but daily updates should continue for all my Near Real-Time data.

https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/snow-cover
https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/awp/Land-Ocean
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Sparkles on December 21, 2018, 10:48:38 AM
Hi
I saw that the snow cover extent graph (https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current) does not seem to be updated from 18-12 - is it usually updated daily?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on December 21, 2018, 11:24:09 AM
Hi
I saw that the snow cover extent graph (https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current) does not seem to be updated from 18-12 - is it usually updated daily?

Most of the time.
HINT...

It is usually updated by about 9 or 10 a.m. GMT. But may still show old data. You may find that refreshing the page works, or even opening the snow map and the graphs one by one and refreshing each one. It works for me - sometimes.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Sparkles on December 21, 2018, 11:31:51 AM
Ah yes I had to go to IE to get today's update. NA still seems to be dropping
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on December 21, 2018, 11:35:15 AM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 20 December 2018

Snow Cover Extent (SCE) for North America now 1 SD below average, but Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) 1 SD above average. It is high SWE that could delay melting in Spring 2019.

SCE looks like retreating a bit more for one or two days until c-c-c-c-old returns to Canada by next week.

A big wet storm hits the North East on Friday/Saturday/Sunday. Much rain and much snow. This could increase or decrease SCE and SWE substantially depending on the balance between rain and snow.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on December 21, 2018, 11:58:04 AM
Quote
Snow Cover Extent (SCE) for North America now 1 SD below average, but Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) 1 SD above average. It is high SWE that could delay melting in Spring 2019.
My past research into the behavior of snow cover for several weather stations in NE Canada and in Siberia has shown that thick midwinter snow cover does not correlate much with delayed snow melt-out. It mostly depends on spring weather and possibly on late snows.
I will attempt to updare and repost those charts, though producing them was very tedious due to data problems.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on December 23, 2018, 02:54:14 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 22 December 2018

Snow Cover Extent (SCE) for North America now just more than 1 SD below average, but Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) 1 SD above average.

With cold returned to Canada, further retreat of snow cover is unlikely. My guess is that this event is pretty much over.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on December 23, 2018, 06:34:58 PM
Wunderground.com's guess(?) at temperatures Jan to March in the USA. Looks last last year?

https://www.wunderground.com/news/forecast/national/news/2018-12-20-january-february-march-2019-us-temperature-outlook-the-weather

January-March 2019 Temperature Outlook: Cold in East, South; Mild in Northwest
Quote
Any above-average temperatures will likely be confined to the West and Northwest during the first three months of the new year. Above-average warmth, by winter standards, is expected from Northern California to parts of the northern Plains, with temperatures even farther above average forecast in the Pacific Northwest.

"The current magnitude/flavor of El Niño event and expected high-latitude blocking associated with the solar minimum (and backed up by the November blocking) add up to heavily skewed odds toward a colder, stormier late-winter period," said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company.

January 2019 temperature outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business.
"The stratospheric polar vortex has been taking a beating, and there are indications that a significant stratospheric warming event is coming soon, by displacement or split, which may also help to increase probabilities of the sort of high-latitude blocking that would favor a colder late-winter look," Crawford said.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 01, 2019, 05:00:47 PM
Thread has been remarkably quiet. Thought I would post most recent graphs for North America.

Snow cover is normal while snow water equivalent is still 1 SD over the average.

One thing I had not noticed before is that snow cover is approaching the maximum for the average winter while snow water equivalent is barely half way to the max for the typical winter.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on January 01, 2019, 06:55:56 PM
And here is last year for comparison. As you can see it was only in February and March 2018 to early April, and only Snow Water Equivalent, that went doo-lally.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 01, 2019, 07:33:20 PM
Remarkable how closely this year is tracking with last year.

Something to watch carefully.

Would not be surprised if it happens again and, if it does, bbr2314 will be back here with a vengeance.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: HapHazard on January 02, 2019, 04:34:26 AM
[...] bbr2314 will be back here with a vengeance.

oh gawd i hope not

...just got our first "real" (enough to have to actually plow the driveway) snowfall of the season; a record by 38 days since we moved here 11 years ago. (BC interior) Not that this anecdote matters here... (not any more than Quebec glaciation, anyways)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on January 02, 2019, 01:39:53 PM
Herewith the results of peering into the chicken entrails by Environment Canada for the weather January to March 2019.

Warm in the west, cold in the N.E., and mostly average precipitation. Meanwhile, elsewhere are suggestions of a SSW / PSV whatever to cause general weather mayhem in the northern hemisphere this month.
link -
https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Niall Dollard on January 03, 2019, 01:12:39 AM
Rutgers NH snowcover extent for December was 44.55 million km2.

A positive anomaly of 0.57.

Regions with above normal extent were mid China, SE Europe.

Regions with below normal extent were northern China, parts of the middle of USA and western Europe.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on January 12, 2019, 04:49:45 PM
It's still a long way out. They predict almost 3 meters of snow for the North-East of the US.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 13, 2019, 04:37:33 PM
The blast of wintry weather across the eastern U.S. has resulted in the 2nd two to three inch snowfall of the season for Chicago. Temperatures reach the mid 30's tomorrow so should be gone in a couple of days. Our warm winters continue.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Klondike Kat on January 14, 2019, 08:39:14 PM
The blast of wintry weather across the eastern U.S. has resulted in the 2nd two to three inch snowfall of the season for Chicago. Temperatures reach the mid 30's tomorrow so should be gone in a couple of days. Our warm winters continue.
Here in the Detroit area we have had precious little snow also.  However, my son down in Dayton and nephews in St. Louis, MO and Lincoln, NE have report an [over]abundance of snow so far this winter.  It seems that the recent weather patterns have pushed the snow further south this year.  The latest forecast is calling for another round of heavy snow through the mid section this weekend. 
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on January 26, 2019, 01:17:11 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

Graphs from Environment Canada attached.

The Eurasia data at the moment suggests an exemplification of the climatic trend, i.e. Snow Cover Extent (SCE) below average (AGW changing snow to rain in lower latitudes), but Snow Water Equivalent (SWE = a measure of mass) well above average as wetter air pushes northwards.

North America SCE is at +1 SD above average, while SWE is well above +1 SD average, about 2-3 weeks ahead of an average year. Will it repeat last year's mega snowfalls in February and March?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Klondike Kat on January 26, 2019, 03:00:53 PM
One of the main negative consequences predicted due to climate change is a reduction in spring melts, due to decreased snow packs, and its resultant effect on local agriculture.  Does the increased SWE negate that theory at all?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 26, 2019, 04:37:07 PM
One of the main negative consequences predicted due to climate change is a reduction in spring melts, due to decreased snow packs, and its resultant effect on local agriculture.  Does the increased SWE negate that theory at all?

I have not heard this predicted. What we are seeing is large positive anomalies for extent in the Fall with negative anomalies in the spring as this snow melts earlier due to warmer springs.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Sebastian Jones on January 27, 2019, 05:37:15 AM
One of the main negative consequences predicted due to climate change is a reduction in spring melts, due to decreased snow packs, and its resultant effect on local agriculture.  Does the increased SWE negate that theory at all?
No.
Reduced extent means that more southerly spring melt will be less, further north where SWE is high, spring still comes early which means the summers are longer, rivers are lower when it is hot and irrigation is most needed. There may well be more and bigger floods....Make that "There will be more bigger floods".
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on January 27, 2019, 09:22:46 AM
One of the main negative consequences predicted due to climate change is a reduction in spring melts, due to decreased snow packs, and its resultant effect on local agriculture.  Does the increased SWE negate that theory at all?
No.
Reduced extent means that more southerly spring melt will be less, further north where SWE is high, spring still comes early which means the summers are longer, rivers are lower when it is hot and irrigation is most needed. There may well be more and bigger floods....Make that "There will be more bigger floods".
This is incorrect. It depends on the region. What has been unfolding in much of Canada would certainly negate this theory. However, it seemingly holds for most of Eurasia.

PS, right on queue, the purples are once again proliferating. Caribou (in Maine) has had its snowiest winter on record to date.

Also, Shared Humanity may imminently experience Chicago's coldest temperature on record. It should come fairly close, with a record-low high temperature even more likely (for O'Hare, current record is -27F set 1/20/1985, and record-low high temperature is -11F, set 1/18/94 and 12/24/83). I also don't know where his quote re: below normal snow comes from as ORD is above normal for the season to date, as well.

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/plot_anom_sdep.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019012700/gfs_T2m_ncus_15.png)

Current output has O'Hare approaching -30F for a low and possibly -15F for a high. Which would smash the old record. Nothing to see here...!  8)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: HapHazard on January 27, 2019, 10:04:37 PM
This feels more like a "for fun" thread, to me. One where we can confuse weather with climate. Folly, ultimately, but fun.

Warmest winter I've yet experienced here in the BC Rockies, with the least amount of snow, as well. This meshes well with my personal local area desertification hypothesis. For whatever that's worth.  8)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: TerryM on January 27, 2019, 11:06:34 PM
This feels more like a "for fun" thread, to me. One where we can confuse weather with climate. Folly, ultimately, but fun.

Warmest winter I've yet experienced here in the BC Rockies, with the least amount of snow, as well. This meshes well with my personal local area desertification hypothesis. For whatever that's worth.  8)


Are you near Cache Creek by any chance? That local was very reminiscent of low desert regions of Southern California to my eye.
I've seen kangaroo rats just southwest of Swift Current Saskatchewan, so that region must have been very arid in the not too distant past.
Perhaps a desert stretched north from Death Valley in the rain shadow of the Rocky Mountains?


Winters would have been devoid of snow, just to stay OT. ;)


Terry
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on February 01, 2019, 09:20:07 PM
Environment Canada have been throwing the bones again - so here is what they came up with for weather Feb to April.

Above average temps for most of the Canadian Archipelago and NE Canada - mostly medium confidence.
Above average precipitation for the Canadian Plains and Quebec - but mostly with very low confidence.

Usefulness in predicting late and end of winter snowfall ? Not-a-lot ?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on February 01, 2019, 09:23:33 PM
That would, IMO, indicate a blockbuster spring. Warmth in Quebec / Baffin anytime before 4/1 is probably a sign that it is snowing A LOT (esp combined with above normal precip). When your average temp is 20F, even a +10F monthly is likely to yield +++snowfall.

Current conditions are already pointing to blockbuster potential IMO, as the purples are once again proliferating. If model output through D10 is correct, gains across much of Canada should continue apace.

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/plot_anom_sdep.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on February 01, 2019, 10:07:24 PM
PS, Caribou continues to smash records. It exceeded 1994's record January total (44.5") on the 22nd. Ended the month with 59.8" of snow. !

https://www.pressherald.com/2019/01/22/caribou-breaks-its-record-for-all-time-snowiest-january/

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on February 02, 2019, 10:51:49 AM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

Graphs from Environment Canada attached as at 1st Feb.

The Eurasia data at the moment suggests an exemplification of the climatic trend, i.e. Snow Cover Extent (SCE) below average (AGW changing snow to rain in lower latitudes), but Snow Water Equivalent (SWE = a measure of mass) well above average as wetter air pushes northwards.

North America SCE is at (whoops,thanks bbr,) +1 SD above average, while SWE is well above +1 SD average, about 2-3 weeks ahead of an average year. At this point in time there is little difference from the 2017-2018 winter snowfall. Will there be a repeat of last year's mega snowfalls in February and March? bbr is saying yes or YES!!!!. I am not so sure. Canada precipitation looking mostly low over the next 10 days (see last Greenland melt Season post), and some  forecasts are saying temperatures will rebound up after a really cold Feb to early March - so no late Nor'Easters.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 02, 2019, 03:26:17 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current
North America SCE is at +1 SD above average...

Assuming you meant to say average and not +1 SD above average.

I also believe you are correct in that generally warmer winters in the mid latitudes will result in reduced SCE while an atmosphere loaded with additional moisture will result in earlier and deeper snows across the north.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on February 02, 2019, 04:57:39 PM
He Shared Humanity, in the news there was something about little earth quakes. The result of some freezing in the ground. I think it was in the area of Chicago. Did you witnessed them ?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Niall Dollard on February 09, 2019, 10:08:06 PM
Rutgers NH snow extent for January was 47.24 million km2

Off to a slightly positive start (anomaly +0.37)



Extent was below in northeast China, Mongolia, the south central Asian "Stans" and western Europe

Extent was above in eastern Europe, western China/Tibet

Mixed extent in the U.S.A.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on February 12, 2019, 06:12:45 PM
It's happening!

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/na_swe.png)

We may even be ahead of 2018 due to much more SWE in the Rockies this year.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 12, 2019, 06:30:36 PM
What's happening?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Wherestheice on February 12, 2019, 08:11:44 PM
Snow water equivalent is an interesting way to look at the snowpack, but extent tells whats really going on. With the SWE, it just shows that some areas got heavier snow.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on February 12, 2019, 08:43:15 PM
Extent is at average, and they already have 300 km3 of meltwater extra. That's 300 000 km2 a meter thick. That will probably have an impact on the beginning of the meltseason if it continues. And they predict plenty of snow in the next days.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on February 15, 2019, 03:57:16 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

Graphs from Environment Canada attached as at 14th Feb.

Both Eurasia and North America showing SWE tending to attack the top of the graph while SCE is only moderately above average.

Will there be a repeat of last year's mega snowfalls in February and March in North America ? bbr is saying yes or YES!!!!. Some  forecasts are saying temperatures will rebound up after a really cold end Feb to early March - so no late Nor'Easters. See next post
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on February 15, 2019, 04:05:37 PM
https://www.wunderground.com/news/safety/winter/news/2019-02-14-march-april-may-2019-temperature-outlook-the-weather-company

Wunderground suggesting that after Mid-march temperatures in the Northern tier of the USA could be above average. This probably also includes most of Canada
Quote
March
Cold conditions may persist in parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest during the first week to 10 days of March as the weather pattern currently locked in place persists. That pattern involves the negative phase of the Pacific North American Oscillation, or PNA.

When the PNA is in its negative phase, the jet stream is amplified far to the north over the northern Pacific Ocean. That helps to send a southward plunge of the jet stream into the western states, keeping temperatures colder than average from the West to portions of the Plains. The negative PNA phase also typically means the Southeast is warmer than average. "We do expect negative PNA into at least early March, but a transition to the pattern described by our forecast map by the 10th of the month," Crawford said.

"The consensus of our statistical and dynamical model guidance suggests a transition toward a warm North and East and cold South and West pattern in March, especially during the last three weeks of the month," Crawford said. "We've modified our March map along these lines."

But Crawford cautioned that there is some concern the negative PNA could persist longer than expected, which would yield colder temperatures than depicted in portions of the West and Plains.

Regardless, colder-than-average temperatures are expected from Central and Southern California into the Intermountain West, central and southern Rockies, Desert Southwest and the western half of Texas. The Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, central and southern Plains, lower and mid-Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast can expect near-average or slightly colder conditions in March.

April
April is currently not expected to be a repeat of April 2018, when record cold dominated the Plains and the northern tier of the U.S. and Winter Storm Xanto brought record-breaking spring snowfall to the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. The southern tier of the U.S. may see near-average or slightly cooler conditions during the second month of meteorological spring, but the rest of the nation is forecast to have near- or above-average temperatures. April could be a relatively warm month from the Northwest to the northern Rockies, as well as in the Great Lakes, western and northern New York and far northern New England, where above-average temperatures are expected.

May
Above-average warmth is expected across the nation's northern tier, from the Pacific Northwest to New England, during the final month of spring. The best chance for near-average or slightly cooler temperatures in May will be from California eastward to the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The remainder of the Lower 48 states can expect near-average or slightly warmer conditions.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on February 15, 2019, 07:08:41 PM
I would not put stock in the Weather Underground forecast, but what do I know. In any case, until April, any "reds" over Newfoundland and Quebec are still likely cold enough to allow for massive snowfalls, with more warmth + moisture than normal combining with temps that are still sub-32F to allow for this.

Today's North American increase was stupendous.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on February 18, 2019, 12:04:58 PM
From https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

SWE for North America requires the maximum on the y-axis to be increased,
SWE in Eurasia also very high.

The contrast with Greenland increases - from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tealight on February 21, 2019, 11:29:53 PM
The NOAA North American snow extent is now over two standard deviations above average, in Asia about one above and in Europe well below average. However in spring we could still see a crash like in 2012.

https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/snow-cover
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on February 22, 2019, 07:08:34 AM
The Great Lakes are now much colder than both 2018 and 2017. Superior is almost entirely iced.

Does anyone have data on annual Great Lakes ice volume since XXXX? I can't find this parceled out specifically but I wonder if PIOMAS or whatever has this information, and I'd be very curious to see the annual graph comparison if it does exist.

In any case, continentally, snowfall is now +2SD vs EXTENT normal as mentioned by Tealight, while SWE is chugging towards 1,500KM^3. This year appears to have an edge over 2018 in terms of both SWE, and lake / near-shore sea ice off SE Canada. I think both factors should result in a later SWE maximum than 2018, possibly in the last week of April (last year was 4/15-4/20).

This should also have the side effect of a very late Hudson Bay melt-out (later than 2018), also resulting in a protracted melt season for Labrador / Baffin. Maybe that also portends a record early melt-out for Bering and Barentz? We shall see, but curious to see if the pattern development through 2018->2019 continually re-inforces as it has been doing, or reverses at some point, as it eventually will (or so we hope).

Finally: the long range ensemble modeling projects continued FRIGID conditions across the Midwest / Great Lakes. This should result in the freezing season for the Great Lakes extending into Mid-March, and beyond. I wish we had the actual data but I'd guess Superior will end up with the most volume of any year in the satellite record. Apparently April 2014 was the latest it has had substantial ice coverage since 1979, and I think that is a record we break with ease if the evolution of 2018's springtime pattern is any guide for 2019.

Days 6-10:

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019022200/gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_6.png)

And 11-15:

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019022200/gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_11.png)

This upcoming pattern could also put us in a position for SWE to make a running leap into early March. Usually SWE growth slows significantly and peaks in March, but this year, I don't think it is going to slow significantly within the next two weeks, and I do not think we will peak until late April.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on February 25, 2019, 09:52:00 AM
North America has crossed 1,500KM^3 well ahead of 2018. Let's see if we hit 1,600 by the first few days of March.

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/na_swe.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on February 25, 2019, 10:56:31 AM

Does anyone have data on annual Great Lakes ice volume since XXXX?


It looks like the place to go to for just about everything on the Great lakes is :-
NOAA - Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory - https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/#overview

I think you may be looking for something that is not there, unless someone takes the thickness data they show on their maps and translates it into volume.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tealight on February 25, 2019, 11:41:59 PM
The higher snow extent this year should make the snow melt faster because it is spread out more. This is a simple energy transfer law of Volume to SurfaceArea ratio that effects everything.

Meanwhile in the UK we have the warmest February on record. The last two weeks were constant strong southern wind and today we reached 20°C in Wales and even 15°C in northern Scotland which has a similar latitude to northern Quebec or central Hudson Bay. I already bought some ice cream this year to cool down during late winter.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Klondike Kat on February 26, 2019, 12:01:19 AM
The higher snow extent this year should make the snow melt faster because it is spread out more. This is a simple energy transfer law of Volume to SurfaceArea ratio that effects everything.

Meanwhile in the UK we have the warmest February on record. The last two weeks were constant strong southern wind and today we reached 20°C in Wales and even 15°C in northern Scotland which has a similar latitude to northern Quebec or central Hudson Bay. I already bought some ice cream this year to cool down during late winter.

It is not the extent that is higher.  Those plots are of the snow water equivalent.  The extent is near average.  That would indicate that the snow is heavier, which would take longer to melt.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: wdmn on February 26, 2019, 12:05:00 AM
The Great Lakes are now much colder than both 2018 and 2017. Superior is almost entirely iced.

Does anyone have data on annual Great Lakes ice volume since XXXX? I can't find this parceled out specifically but I wonder if PIOMAS or whatever has this information, and I'd be very curious to see the annual graph comparison if it does exist.

An Ice thickness database exists here: https://nsidc.org/data/g00803

But only covers the years 1966-1979.

From the website: "During the winters of 1965/66 through 1976/77, NOAA/Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) collected weekly ice thickness and stratigraphy data at up to 90 stations per year on the Great Lakes. Data include station name, latitude, longitude and period of record as well as thickness of up to six ice layers, total ice thickness, snow depth (on top of ice), snow condition, ice condition, and ice type code."

Alas, this was stopped.

Now there are the charts that Gerontocrat shared, but I'm not sure about the raw data that informs those charts...

In any case, both the years of 2014 and 2015 saw more extensive ice coverage and more extreme "polar vortex" events, so I doubt that this year would be record setting in terms of volume.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on February 26, 2019, 01:38:12 AM
The Great Lakes are now much colder than both 2018 and 2017. Superior is almost entirely iced.

Does anyone have data on annual Great Lakes ice volume since XXXX? I can't find this parceled out specifically but I wonder if PIOMAS or whatever has this information, and I'd be very curious to see the annual graph comparison if it does exist.

An Ice thickness database exists here: https://nsidc.org/data/g00803

But only covers the years 1966-1979.

From the website: "During the winters of 1965/66 through 1976/77, NOAA/Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) collected weekly ice thickness and stratigraphy data at up to 90 stations per year on the Great Lakes. Data include station name, latitude, longitude and period of record as well as thickness of up to six ice layers, total ice thickness, snow depth (on top of ice), snow condition, ice condition, and ice type code."

Alas, this was stopped.

Now there are the charts that Gerontocrat shared, but I'm not sure about the raw data that informs those charts...

In any case, both the years of 2014 and 2015 saw more extensive ice coverage and more extreme "polar vortex" events, so I doubt that this year would be record setting in terms of volume.

We are actually just about matching 14-15 in terms of coverage and weather looks colder than both of those years through D10. I think there is a decent chance given the overall state of the continental cryosphere that Superior ultimately outdoes both of those years in terms of melting out.

PS: most of Minnesota and Wisconsin just recorded their snowiest February and / or month (ever) on record.

RE: Tealight -- both extent and SWE are at records this year (at least SWE is). But I am also pretty sure the SWE differential with 2018 is still greater re: SWE than extent (in terms of %). So it is thicker than any previous year as well. It is relatively easy to add KM^3 to mass regardless, it is difficult to add KM^2 to area after a certain point when coverage extends to most of the continent as it does now.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on February 26, 2019, 01:44:46 AM
The cumulative albedo differential this February is going to be quite large versus 2000+ satellite data (a day to day comparison shows we are firmly in the lead). At this point there is a massive patch in the middle of the country reflecting about as well & whitely as Greenland. It is now almost 3/1, which means the insolation being deflected is also quite significant, and much more than what Greenland is deflecting at the same moment given the sun's position in the sky.

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=geographic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2019-02-25-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-144.17488861083984,22.374481201171875,-55.159263610839844,65.54635620117188
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: wdmn on February 26, 2019, 02:09:27 AM
The Great Lakes are now much colder than both 2018 and 2017. Superior is almost entirely iced.

Does anyone have data on annual Great Lakes ice volume since XXXX? I can't find this parceled out specifically but I wonder if PIOMAS or whatever has this information, and I'd be very curious to see the annual graph comparison if it does exist.

An Ice thickness database exists here: https://nsidc.org/data/g00803

But only covers the years 1966-1979.

From the website: "During the winters of 1965/66 through 1976/77, NOAA/Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) collected weekly ice thickness and stratigraphy data at up to 90 stations per year on the Great Lakes. Data include station name, latitude, longitude and period of record as well as thickness of up to six ice layers, total ice thickness, snow depth (on top of ice), snow condition, ice condition, and ice type code."

Alas, this was stopped.

Now there are the charts that Gerontocrat shared, but I'm not sure about the raw data that informs those charts...

In any case, both the years of 2014 and 2015 saw more extensive ice coverage and more extreme "polar vortex" events, so I doubt that this year would be record setting in terms of volume.

We are actually just about matching 14-15 in terms of coverage and weather looks colder than both of those years through D10. I think there is a decent chance given the overall state of the continental cryosphere that Superior ultimately outdoes both of those years in terms of melting out.

Not quite.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Wherestheice on February 26, 2019, 02:37:05 AM
Snow extent is average
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on February 26, 2019, 04:04:44 AM
Snow extent is average
Not in North America

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/na_sce.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Wherestheice on February 26, 2019, 04:38:46 AM
Snow extent is average
Not in North America

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/na_sce.png)

Even in North America snow extent has been average most of the year. Yes there will be above average and below average. That’s how weather works. Nothing this winter is either surprising or of much significance to trends
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: El Cid on February 26, 2019, 08:24:20 AM
Give credit where credit is due.

bbr is right about at least one thing: there was a tremendous amount of snow this year in North America, and SWE is above average in Eurasia too. Of course, as the Arctic is becoming more open it is getting wetter as well so this should not come as a surprise. More open Arctic = more rain coming out of the Arctic and hitting sorrounding areas, mainly Siberia and Canada.

However, for bbr's pet theory to work, this snow should survive the summer which seems very very unlikely to me
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on February 26, 2019, 01:36:19 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

Here are SCE and SWE for North America (NA) and Eurasia (EU) as at 25 Feb. Also last year for North America.

Quite a contrast - EU following the climate models, i.e. more snow at high latitudes but less SCE as the snowline heads north as the years go by.

NA still showing both SCE and SWE increasing variation from the average. Recent forecasts from the US Climate Prediction Centre are in 2 minds about when the current long cold spell will break - mid-March or late March?
Given that unseasonable cold and its southerly extent, most precipitation in NA will be of snow. GFS Accumulated precipitation forecast to March 8th suggests continued high SCE and SWE.

On Friday might have the Canadian seasonal climate predictions for March April May.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on February 26, 2019, 11:03:15 PM
It looks like we are about 10% above 2018 which is pretty phenomenal for what was apparently the most recent record year. If we extend the current anomaly to peak, we will max ~1,750-1,800KM^3, vs. a hair over 1,600KM^3 in 2018.  However, the anomaly (% wise) could also continue building on current gains for a while longer. We shall see. In any case, today's gain was strong, and we may end February with a volume equivalent to 2018's maximum, with ~40 days to go relative to the 2018 maximum in April.

It should be noted that 1,800KM^3 of SWE in early April would easily be over 100% of average for the date (continentally).

PS, for summer this year, I am not looking for widespread coverage everywhere. I think a key metric to watch will be the Torngat Mountains and whether they retain more snowcover than they did in 2018 (a first from what I can tell in the satellite record). If they do and it is more widespread, it will be quite interesting to see if similar impacts from 2018->2019 extend from 2019 into 2020 in a more aggressive fashion.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on February 27, 2019, 09:51:22 AM
Tonight's CCIN is out. Another big gain. Looks like we are at about 1,550KM^3 vs 1,375KM^3 at same time in 2018.

If 2018's maximum of 1,625KM^3 serves as a proxy, we could expect 1,830KM^3 or more in 2019 at maximum in early-mid April. If our current momentum lasts any longer than 2018's first un-absolute maximum (~3/8), we could add additionally atop the existing lead vs. last year.

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/na_swe.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on March 02, 2019, 05:53:51 AM
Seems like the suspicious link between nearly ice-free Bering by 3/1 and crazy SWE and cold in North America has more support after 2/2019. I'm sure there are more factors behind the SWE / cold but this has to be a big one.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on March 02, 2019, 08:15:11 AM
D10 forecasts are becoming quite aggressive with impending snowfall. 00z CMC shows deep falls across very wide areas.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019030200/gem_asnow_namer_40.png)

Therefore I think it is unlikely we see a SWE max until at least D10+ although there is probably one coming soon thereafter (within a week or two?). Last year we saw four maximums with the highest occurring in early April for North America.

We are about 150KM^3 ahead of 2018 at the moment as well -- about 11%.

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/na_swe.png)

Last year saw a slight overall gain in March (with maxes intermixed). It would be quite interesting if this year added substantially more mass as it would indicate that this "reaction" can indeed be sustained much later into spring if sufficient momentum is built up. Maybe the near complete melt-out of the Bering and its potential non-recovery (unlike 2018) could be the push needed for that to occur (+blocking, +water vapor, +northerly winds sweeping down from Greenland into North America).
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Niall Dollard on March 02, 2019, 09:33:46 PM
Checking in on the Nome webcam from time to time and noticed that they have had a lot of snow of late.

Feb just passed has been the snowiest since 1920. All that mild air SE winds has been poor for Bering ice but great for snow.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tealight on March 06, 2019, 01:21:20 AM
With the latest cold outbreak into the USA, North American Snow Extent is back to over two standard deviations above the long term mean. The time is running out to get a low albedo spring for an early sea ice melt.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on March 06, 2019, 09:42:20 AM
North America is about to break the SWE graph again! 1,600KM^3 is just shy of Lake Ontario's volume, and about a Lake Erie's worth above normal for this time of year in the recent satellite record. We won't come close to Lake Huron's 3,500KM^3 but we could do half that at the max. The least amount of flux to substantially perturb AMOC during Agassiz outflows was guesstimated at 2,500KM^3. We are not far from that, and it could soon be happening 1X/each year.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on March 06, 2019, 11:47:46 AM
Best to post a source in support of the 2500 km3 figure, which seems like a serious underestimate.
But in any case, what percentage of NA SWE do you believe can pour into the North Atlantic ocean over the span of a few days? Considering the parts that will melt early or late, sublimate, evaporate or seep underground, or flow in another direction (Arctic, Pacific, south)?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on March 06, 2019, 01:02:37 PM
There are signs of the cold in North America reducing over the next week or 10 days.
The next USA storm looks like dumping rain on Chicago, not snow.

https://www.wunderground.com/news/storms/winter/news/2019-03-05-snow-wind-midwest-plains-severe-thunderstorms-south-weekend

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on March 06, 2019, 01:07:44 PM
Where will all the snowmelt go?

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/15/NorthAmerica-WaterDivides.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on March 08, 2019, 10:25:51 AM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 7 march

Here are SCE and SWE for North America (NA) and Eurasia (EU)

Eurasia continues to follow the climate models, i.e. more snow at high latitudes but below average SCE as the snowline heads north as the years go by and now steeply declining as the spring approaches. Also maybe  SWE has peaked.

North America still showing both SCE and SWE increased high variation from the average. Signs that Snow Cover Extent has peaked as precipitation gradually falling as rain in higher latitudes towards the 49th parallel. Definite signs of above zero celsius temperatures heading north, though patchy and intermittent, over the next days. Snow Water Equivalent may have peaked (or may not).
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Niall Dollard on March 10, 2019, 02:04:21 PM
Rutgers northern hemisphere extent for Feb 2019 was 46.03 million km2.

A small positive anomaly of +0.44, like last year.

Above normal extent through USA and much of China (except NE)

Below normal extent in Europe and NE China.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on March 10, 2019, 02:20:29 PM
Wunderground.com says the USA is going to get a classic slow-moving March storm next week.

https://www.wunderground.com/news/storms/winter/news/2019-03-08-march-system-severe-flooding-snow-wind-west-plains-south

The balance between rain and snow is going to be interesting. The first image from Wunderground shows a lot of area with rain and less with snow. The 2nd image GFS shows more or less the same. The last image shows that warmth in North America is moving North as does the sun.

So my little prediction that belongs to me for North America (NA) is that by next weekend
- a goodly part of the current thin snow cover in the more southerly latitudes of the USA will be gone, i.e. SCE will be heading South (see image 4.png),
- NA-SWE (snow mass) will either be dithering around the max or will show a loss.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on March 13, 2019, 03:17:10 PM
Images at equinox attached.

Spring is coming to North America (and Europe), the snow will melt.

Asia still looking somewhat cold.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tealight on March 15, 2019, 11:38:40 PM
All hail HTML, CSS, Javascript and the W3.CSS template creators.

I managed to combine a beautiful slider with an image slideshow. Now I have the tools to easily compare years against each other. The images are updated in the same place to a new year for easy comparison instead of putting all images into a huge grid like on my old website.

These news are posted here due to the first content using this are the Snow Covered Days maps.

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/Snow-Cover
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on March 16, 2019, 01:04:56 AM
That is AMAZING and thank you! One question. Could you make a map comparing 2018 minus 1998 in terms of anomalies? (or a year - year comp tool)? This would be very helpful for comparing yearly shifts vs normals. I am comparing 1998 and 2018 and the 20 year change is astonishing in many regions -- parts of Canada have two to three months of extra snowcover vs. 20 years ago, while parts of the Arctic have become almost entirely ice free!
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on March 16, 2019, 10:11:01 AM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 15 march

Here are SCE and SWE for North America (NA) and Eurasia (EU)

Eurasia continues to be a poster child for the climate models, i.e. more snow at high latitudes but below average SCE as the snowline heads north as the years go by and now steeply declining as the spring approaches. Also SWE has probably peaked.

From my post on March 10 re Storm Ulmer in North America
Quote
Wunderground.com says the USA is going to get a classic slow-moving March storm next week.

The balance between rain and snow is going to be interesting.... ... my little prediction that belongs to me for North America (NA) is that by next weekend
- a goodly part of the current thin snow cover in the more southerly latitudes of the USA will be gone, i.e. SCE will be heading South
- NA-SWE (snow mass) will either be dithering around the max or will show a loss.

And to my relief and surprise, snow cover extent down by a lot, and snow water equivalent has reduced.

It looks like North America will be a bit dryer and warmth will be heading North and heading East especially from the Pacific Coast over the next 10 days, with some really warm days. So the only question is how quickly SCE and SWE will reduce in North America from now on?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on March 16, 2019, 10:21:28 AM
It looks like we may have seen the absolute maximum about a month earlier than 2018. The decline in North America today was quite dramatic and the forecast does not bode well for any additional gains, although this could still change as it isn't April quite yet. But barring a major surprise, we are probably post-SWE max, and despite still being much above average, this may be a bad sign for the sea ice adjacent to Canada this summer (IMO), at least in Beaufort, which is upstream of where major melt should continue occurring.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tealight on March 17, 2019, 01:17:39 AM
That is AMAZING and thank you! One question. Could you make a map comparing 2018 minus 1998 in terms of anomalies? (or a year - year comp tool)? This would be very helpful for comparing yearly shifts vs normals. I am comparing 1998 and 2018 and the 20 year change is astonishing in many regions -- parts of Canada have two to three months of extra snowcover vs. 20 years ago, while parts of the Arctic have become almost entirely ice free!

A year to year comparison tool would be nice, but it isn't something I can create easily. All the calculations would need to be done in javascript of which I have almost zero knowledge of. The current year comparison with the slider is just template code added together. It took maybe a reasonable 2-3 hour to create the site, far below the required few days to learn the basics of javascript.

I attached your requested 2018 - 1998 map.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on March 17, 2019, 02:01:28 AM
That is AMAZING and thank you! One question. Could you make a map comparing 2018 minus 1998 in terms of anomalies? (or a year - year comp tool)? This would be very helpful for comparing yearly shifts vs normals. I am comparing 1998 and 2018 and the 20 year change is astonishing in many regions -- parts of Canada have two to three months of extra snowcover vs. 20 years ago, while parts of the Arctic have become almost entirely ice free!

A year to year comparison tool would be nice, but it isn't something I can create easily. All the calculations would need to be done in javascript of which I have almost zero knowledge of. The current year comparison with the slider is just template code added together. It took maybe a reasonable 2-3 hour to create the site, far below the required few days to learn the basics of javascript.

I attached your requested 2018 - 1998 map.

Thank you!!! That is absolutely incredible.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on March 18, 2019, 02:18:09 PM
Plunging!

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/na_swe.png)

We shall see if it continues but at the moment it looks like it will for at least a few more days.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on March 18, 2019, 03:11:18 PM
Plunging!

We shall see if it continues but at the moment it looks like it will for at least a few more days.
NA temperatures say yes, but with little rain so wunderground.com suggest an orderly snow melt after the floods.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: SimonF92 on March 18, 2019, 05:45:00 PM
Whats the consensus? Is a high snow mass overlaying sea ice a good or a bad thing?

I know that melt-ponding that in turn was partially responsible for the June cliff of 2012, but then again there's an inference for increased protection from top-melt?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 18, 2019, 06:25:16 PM
Whats the consensus? Is a high snow mass overlaying sea ice a good or a bad thing?

I know that melt-ponding that in turn was partially responsible for the June cliff of 2012, but then again there's an inference for increased protection from top-melt?

I think it depends. If the heavy snow falls early in the freeze season, it will insulate the ice from the cold, preventing it from thickening. If it falls just before the melt season, it may serve to delay the onset of melt.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on March 18, 2019, 10:50:56 PM
What SH said.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on March 19, 2019, 11:46:49 AM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 18 March

Here are SCE and SWE for North America (NA) and Eurasia (EU)

Eurasia continues to be a poster child for the climate models,  below average SCE as the snowline heads north as the years go by and now steeply declining as the spring approaches. Also SWE has peaked.

The rain and warmth last week shattered the snow season in North America. SCE and SWE still heading strongly downwards. It looks like North America will be a bit dryer and warmth will be heading North and heading East especially from the Pacific Coast over the next 10 days, with some really warm days.

So the only question is how quickly SCE and SWE will reduce in North America from now on? The last image shows average temps for the next 10 days. But daytime temperatures will be much higher than the average shown, so melt will reach to much higher latitudes than the average 32 degrees Fahrenheit isotherm shown on that image. Also it looks like snowfall will be sparse during this period.

So my prediction that belongs to me is that SWE and SCE will continue to reduce strongly, though perhaps at a lower rate than in recent days.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on March 20, 2019, 09:32:27 AM
WOW!

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/na_swe.png)

NW Canada is now bleeding severely red.

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/plot_anom_sdep.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Klondike Kat on March 20, 2019, 12:19:41 PM
Wow is right.  IF that trend continues, we may be in for some major spring floods.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on March 20, 2019, 07:08:16 PM
Not so long ago I posted a joking remark about N America snow melting from the North.
Nature gets the last laugh ?

https://www.wunderground.com/news/news/weather/news/2019-03-20-march-record-warmth-alaska-canada-seattle

70s in Alaska, Northern Canada, Washington State Smash All-Time March Warm Records Before Winter Ends

Quote
All-time March record highs were smashed in parts of Alaska, western Canada and Washington State in an end-of-winter warm spell that sent temperatures soaring to heights never seen this time of year so far north.

Tuesday's high in Klawock, Alaska, about 200 miles south-southeast of Juneau, topped out at 70 degrees. While that wasn't a March record there, it was the earliest in the year any Alaska location had reached 70 degrees by a whopping 12 days, according to Alaska-based climatologist Dr. Brian Brettschneider. Five other Alaska locations did tie or set new all-time March warmth records this week.

Sitka topped their previous March record with a high Monday of 62 degrees, then shattered it Tuesday soaring to 67 degrees. Their average high this time of year is only 43 degrees.
Annette tied their all-time March record, set just one year ago, both Monday and Tuesday, reaching 65 degrees. Other March records were set in Eagle (55 degrees), Petersburg (63 degrees) and Yakutat (60 degrees). Average highs this time of year in the town of Eagle, in Alaska's interior near the Canadian border, are only in the low to mid-20s.

Canada, Oh!
The warmth extended into western and northern Canada in places you'd usually expect to be ice- or snow-covered in late March.

Yohin Lake, less than 400 miles from the Arctic Circle in the Northwest Territories, soared to 21.8 degrees Celsius (about 71 degrees Fahrenheit) Tuesday, the first time on record a location in the Northwest Territories warmed to at least 20 degrees Celsius. Neither Denver, nor Kansas City, had yet to reach 70 degrees in 2019.

This was just one of 10 locations in northwest Canada smashing new March records, according to Patrick Duplessis, a doctoral candidate at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia.

Duplessis mapped monthly records set Sunday, Monday and again Tuesday. The town of Norman Wells, also in the Northwest Territories, crushed its previous March record on three straight days.

Farther south, Tofino, British Columbia, also crushed a March record Tuesday, soaring to 24.5 degrees Celsius (about 76 degrees Fahrenheit). Weather Network digital meteorologist Tyler Hamilton illustrated what an outlier this warmth on Vancouver Island was. It appeared this would have also set an April all-time high, there.

This warm spell took a toll on the snowpack,

80s in Washington
After shivering through February, this warm spell is also rewriting the record books in parts of Washington state.

Seattle soared to 79 degrees Tuesday, not only an all-time March high in records since 1894, but also for any day in the five-month stretch from November through March, according to the National Weather Service.

If that wasn't impressive, Seattle also set its record warmest daily low temperature not just for March, but also April, barely dipping below 60 degrees Tuesday.

Quillayute, Washington, soared to 81 degrees Tuesday, also a March record, and 13 days earlier than their previous record earliest-in-year 80-degree high (April 1, 1987). This was 30 degrees above their average high near the spring equinox.

Typically rainy Quillayute – near the western tip of the Olympic Peninsula – reached 81 degrees this year ahead of both Atlanta and Dallas-Ft. Worth, which had only hit 80 degrees so far, both in February.

Just down the coast, Hoquiam, Washington, also set an all-time March record, soaring to 79 degrees Tuesday.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on March 22, 2019, 10:41:16 AM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 21 March

Here is SCE and SWE for North America (NA). To my surprise decline remains very steep. I was expecting the pace of melt to reduce as the floods and precipitation declined. Wrong again.

It looks like North America will be a bit dryer and warmth will be heading North and heading East especially from the Pacific Coast over the next 10 days, with some really warm days.

So the only question is how quickly SCE and SWE will reduce in North America from now on? The last images show min and max temps for the next 5 days. Daytime temperatures are much higher, so melt will reach to much higher latitudes . Also it looks like snowfall will be sparse during this period.

So my prediction that belongs to me is that SWE and SCE will continue to reduce strongly, though perhaps at a lower rate than in recent days.

Eurasia continues to be a poster child for the climate models,  average SCE as the snowline heads north as the years go by and now steeply declining as the spring approaches. Also SWE in decline.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on March 23, 2019, 11:17:41 AM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 22 March

SCE and SWE for North America (NA). To my surprise decline remains very steep or even steeper.To lose about 20% of the accumulated snow mass in about one week is an event. Both SCE and SWE are now less than +1SD above average, i.e. within "normal" variation from the average. 
 
SCE and SWE for Eurasia which continues to be a poster child for the climate models  Average SCE as the spring moves north and SWE in decline at just +1SD.

The last 2 images show minimum and maximum temperatures over the next 10 days. I just added them to show the possibility of cold or warmth prevailing during spring. I am betting on warmth for the rest of March.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on March 25, 2019, 02:23:44 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 22 March

North America snow melt continues to power on. I am still betting on continuation  for the rest of March.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 25, 2019, 11:03:15 PM
And so mother nature demonstrates yet again that snow melts when the weather warms.

I do believe this pattern of early, very heavy snow falls with large positive anomalies will continue as a result of moisture loading in the atmosphere and mid latitude atmospheric intrusions into the northern latitudes. That said, rapid melt will continue to be a feature as the earth warms.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: El Cid on March 26, 2019, 08:05:05 AM
I do believe this pattern of early, very heavy snow falls with large positive anomalies will continue as a result of moisture loading in the atmosphere and mid latitude atmospheric intrusions into the northern latitudes. That said, rapid melt will continue to be a feature as the earth warms.

I agree. Obviously. Snow extent in the next years will probably be lower and lower while SWE might still hit new highs...
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Klondike Kat on March 26, 2019, 12:54:51 PM
I do believe this pattern of early, very heavy snow falls with large positive anomalies will continue as a result of moisture loading in the atmosphere and mid latitude atmospheric intrusions into the northern latitudes. That said, rapid melt will continue to be a feature as the earth warms.

I agree. Obviously. Snow extent in the next years will probably be lower and lower while SWE might still hit new highs...

That is what I would expect.  However, the increased extent in recent years has me re-thinking that expectation.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: be cause on March 31, 2019, 11:11:27 AM
keeping an eye on progress of snow cover is possible via post 325 as it is updating daily .. both graph and map .. b.c.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Klondike Kat on March 31, 2019, 01:58:13 PM
I suspect that the nosedive will take a short reprieve, as colder temperatures and recent snowfall will stem the decline.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on March 31, 2019, 04:46:37 PM
That's like a month faster than last year.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on April 01, 2019, 01:07:17 PM
I suspect that the nosedive will take a short reprieve, as colder temperatures and recent snowfall will stem the decline.

And a short reprieve it is (see 1st image).

All Eurasia and North America SCE and SWE now within the +1 SD band. The real legacy of the extreme snow fall in North America seems to me to be the floods expected to roll down the Mississippi / Missouri river basin over the next two months. Also the snow cover map shows the persistent East West temperature contrast .

Looking ahead the temperature anomalies look to be in favour of above average snow melt especially in Eurasia. The one cold spot - Hudson bay and Quebec - persists.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on April 01, 2019, 01:19:05 PM
Another indication for an early rather than a late snow melt in N America from
https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tealight on April 01, 2019, 07:06:32 PM
NOAA snow cover is finally showing heavy losses in western Canada. The southern Rockies however are still snow covered.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Klondike Kat on April 01, 2019, 07:16:52 PM
Many of the ski resorts in the Rockies have pushed their season ending closing date back by as much as a month, due to the heavy snowfall this winter.  Many Colorado resorts experienced their snowiest March on record.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on April 01, 2019, 11:03:44 PM
Many of the ski resorts in the Rockies have pushed their season ending closing date back by as much as a month, due to the heavy snowfall this winter.  Many Colorado resorts experienced their snowiest March on record.

Very good news indeed as the heavy snow will result in full reservoirs this summer.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on April 03, 2019, 03:22:15 PM
Many of the ski resorts in the Rockies have pushed their season ending closing date back by as much as a month, due to the heavy snowfall this winter.  Many Colorado resorts experienced their snowiest March on record.

Very good news indeed as the heavy snow will result in full reservoirs this summer.
I believe the main reservoir is the snowpack itself. Early melt would mean most of the snow melt will end in the ocean. A slow late melt will keep the water flowing throughout the dry summer.

At the moment in the West snow is disappearing fast. Wunderground.com suggest April just a bit warm for the rest of April. NOAA saying about the same for the 3 months April to June.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Klondike Kat on April 03, 2019, 05:14:06 PM
It that holds true, then the Pacific northwest would experience an early melt.  The bulk of the Rockies appear in the average category, becoming below as one heads east and above as one heads west.  The snow melt into the Heartland is all average or below, so the heavy winter snows may give the rivers flowing well into the summer - especially if the cool temperatures persist.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Niall Dollard on April 03, 2019, 09:30:30 PM
Rutgers reported a nh snow cover extent of 39.48 million km2 for March.

That is a slightly negative anomaly (-0.65).

Cover was above in the USA and central China. Below normal in Europe, Kazakhstan and NE China. 
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Comradez on April 04, 2019, 04:39:17 AM
The northern hemisphere snowcover looks bad.  The most early melt since 2016.  I'm not even talking about extent.  Just look at the shades of white and how much grey and brown is popping out already.  Southwestern Alaska looks really bad.  Would not be surprised if the Kuskokwim and Yukon have record early ice breakups.  April 20th is the current record for the Kuskokwim.  Look at the surrounding areas on worldview.

Great Plains look bad.  The Baltic looks bad.  Eurasia looks bad.  A lot of extra sun getting soaked up. 

The differences with 2018 are stark.  Just compare Southwest Alaska.  The big lakes there were completely iced over at this point in 2018.  Look at them now.  Crazy.  I sense melting momentum. 
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on April 04, 2019, 05:42:47 AM
The northern hemisphere snowcover looks bad.  The most early melt since 2016.  I'm not even talking about extent.  Just look at the shades of white and how much grey and brown is popping out already.  Southwestern Alaska looks really bad.  Would not be surprised if the Kuskokwim and Yukon have record early ice breakups.  April 20th is the current record for the Kuskokwim.  Look at the surrounding areas on worldview.

Great Plains look bad.  The Baltic looks bad.  Eurasia looks bad.  A lot of extra sun getting soaked up. 

The differences with 2018 are stark.  Just compare Southwest Alaska.  The big lakes there were completely iced over at this point in 2018.  Look at them now.  Crazy.  I sense melting momentum.
I strongly agree. The only holdout is Quebec and parts of Hudson Bay. Everything else is melting extremely quickly and extremely early. The results the past two weeks have been unprecedented. I was big on melt momentum in 2018, if it is any indicator this year, we are in VERY big trouble.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on April 06, 2019, 01:43:31 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Northern hemisphere snow as at 5th April

Eurasia SCE and SWE is well-behaved, still melting in accordance with the models (in itself unusual). i.e. steady decline with SCE a bit below average and SWE a bit above average.

North America CE and SWE still within the +1 SD band, but in the recent few days there has been a reminder that winter is not yet over, with both increasing a tad. There looks as if at least two major storms will affect the eastern half of North America over the next week. The question is on the balance between snow and rain in the systems. In either case, not so good for the flood outlook.

The real legacy of the extreme snow fall in North America seems to me to be the floods expected to roll down the Mississippi / Missouri river basin over the next two months.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Klondike Kat on April 06, 2019, 02:25:42 PM
The latest forecast calls for heavy snow in the west and potential blizzard for the plains.  The storm will then transition to rain as it heads into the Midwest and northeast.  Since warm weather has melted the snow over in many of these places recently, I suspect that the overall coverage will increase with this passing storm.  The jet stream is in place for additional snowfall in the coming weeks.  As you stated, winter is not over yet.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Archimid on April 06, 2019, 02:41:11 PM
Climate change will be good for agriculture because the growing season will be lengthened... lol.

It terrifies me to know that the leaders of the world are working under the assumption that because it is getting warmer  in the North, where it is very cold, climate change won't be bad for them.

The changes in the characteristics of seasonality will be much worse than warming.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tor Bejnar on April 08, 2019, 04:07:19 PM
NSIDC's Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/) of April 3 includes a discussion on Arctic Ocean snow cover and this graph. (Something like: less net snow cover due to late freeze, early thaw and changing weather patterns (but more snow in the CAB), with consequences for ice growth, etc.)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on April 11, 2019, 04:22:09 PM
Another winter storm (Wesley) dumps more snow over the middle of North America, stopping and then reversing the decline in SWE (snow mass) to above +1SD. Meanwhile, warmth pushes North and East from the far west of North America, reducing SCE (snow cover towards -1SD.

The result looks like even worse flooding over the next few weeks, especially down the Missouri.

And warmth steadily moves North and East for the next week and more. My prediction that belongs to me is that by the 21st April just about all the snow cover south of 60 degrees in North America will be gone (apart from snow in the higher mountains), even though snow mass in the remainder may still be above average.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on April 13, 2019, 11:14:30 AM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Northern hemisphere snow as at 12th April

Eurasia SCE and SWE is well-behaved, still melting in accordance with the models (in itself unusual). i.e. steady decline with SCE at 1 SD below average and SWE 1 SD above average.

North America stays really interesting. Two storms affected North America over the next week, the second being a monster - Storm Wesley. This dumped loads of snow especially on the high plains (see first image). As a result SWE (snow mass) is now well above +1SD (standard deviation) for the time of year,  and SCE (snow cover extent) approaching +1 SD.  (2nd and third images)

However, Spring has sprung. The last image shows typical late afternoon temperatures in North America over the next 10 days. So, my little prediction that belongs to me is that apart from some snow in the high mountains, there will be no snow on the ground south of 60 degrees North in North America well before the end of the month.

The real legacy of the extreme snow fall in North America seems to me to be the floods expected to roll down the Mississippi / Missouri river basin over the next two months. Wesley can only have worsened that outlook.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on April 18, 2019, 01:28:33 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Northern hemisphere snow as at 17th April

A quick look at North America after the monster Storm Wesley. This dumped loads of snow especially on the high plains.  As a result SWE (snow mass) spiked well above +1SD (standard deviation) for the time of year,  and SCE (snow cover extent) approached+1 SD.

But all that snow is nearly gone. Spring sprang. SCE and SWE now in fast decline. The last image shows typical late afternoon temperatures in North America over the next 10 days.  With temperatures getting that warm snow will not survive. So, my little prediction that belongs to me is that apart from some snow remaining in the high mountains, there will be no snow on the ground south of 60 degrees North in North America well before the end of the month.

The real legacy of the extreme snow fall in North America still seems to me to be the floods expected to roll down the Mississippi / Missouri river basin over the next two months. Storm Wesley and the current rapid melt can only have worsened that outlook.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on April 20, 2019, 11:30:07 AM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current North American Snow as at 19th April

Another look at North America after the monster Storm Wesley. This dumped loads of snow especially on the high plains.  But all that snow is nearly gone. Spring sprang. SCE and SWE now in fast decline, SWE down to +1 SD above average, extent down to 1 SD below average, in line with long-term model predictions for higher snow fall at higher latitudes and earlier melt at lower latitudes.

The last image shows typical late afternoon temperatures in North America over the next 10 days.  With temperatures getting that warm snow will not survive. So, my little prediction that belongs to me is that apart from the snow remaining in the mountains, there will be no snow on the ground south of 60 degrees North in North America well before the end of the month.

The real legacy of the extreme snow fall in North America still seems to me to be the floods expected to roll down the Mississippi / Missouri river basin over the next two months. Storm Wesley and the current rapid melt can only have worsened that outlook.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on April 20, 2019, 11:44:20 AM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Eurasian Snow as at 19th April

Eurasia was showing the textbook example of expected snow until a week ago, with both SCE and SWE in strong decline, SWE down to +1 SD above average, extent down to 1 SD below average, in line with long-term model predictions for higher snow fall at higher latitudes and earlier melt at lower latitudes. That good behaviour has stopped.

In the last week, SCE has increased, now at +1SD above average, and SWE decline has stalled, now at well over +1SD above average. I am not sure why, as temperatures and temperature anomalies do not seem to be colder than normal.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on April 20, 2019, 03:15:03 PM
And here are Tealight's (aka NICO SUN)  maps and graph showing where snow is melting fast and where it is melting slow.

What struck me is

- that there appears to be more melting ahead of schedule than behind,
- that the temperature contrast between Eastern Canada and Western Canada / Alaska is very pronounced,
- that apart from earlier in N. America earlier in the season extent remained well within the +2 / -2 SD boundary.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on April 25, 2019, 10:17:40 AM
Chicago has a chance of seeing its largest post 4/25 snowstorm on record. I think the city will only see a little bit but the suburbs are now shown receiving up to 10" by the 00z modeling suite and the trend has been colder. That this is preceding the Arctic heat wave is no coincidence IMO, as the Arctic is spilling its guts into the mid-latitudes.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019042500/gfs_asnow_us_17.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on April 26, 2019, 08:31:25 AM
The new EURO shows 6" down into Chicago proper with 8" or so at O'Hare, which would absolutely smash the all-time late season (4/25+) record.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on April 26, 2019, 01:10:38 PM
At the moment, the snow line heads north in North America
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Klondike Kat on April 26, 2019, 05:35:35 PM
That may change over the weekend.  More snow on the way.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on April 26, 2019, 06:33:42 PM
That may change over the weekend.  More snow on the way.
1. There will be snow.
2. There will be rain.
3. There will be warmth.

I am betting that overall 2+3 > 1
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on April 27, 2019, 03:52:45 AM
Of course the warmth will win out, but the impending event for Chicago appears to have truly historic potential. Winter storm watches are now out for 4-8", which would smash existing late-season snowfall records. This is a VERY anomalous event.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Gray-Wolf on April 27, 2019, 01:30:51 PM
Can't it be problematic,over there,when extreme cold/dry air masses run into warm/humid air masses?

Not talking precipitation events either!
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on April 27, 2019, 10:21:10 PM
It is a little after 3 p.m. in Chicago. Began snowing at 11:00 a.m. this morning, periodically heavy. Temps are hovering right at 36F and this is what you get.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on April 28, 2019, 05:48:42 PM
Chicago recorded 2 inches of snow from the storm. I live 6 miles from Ohare and this is a photo from my balcony...a beautiful spring morning.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on April 28, 2019, 05:58:07 PM
There was a dump of snow yesterday that is still there (briefly)- but just north of the Great Lakes. Being in Canada, unlikely to be noticed by the US media.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on May 01, 2019, 10:49:13 AM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Eurasian Snow as at 30th April

All my predictions failed as snow loss became below average in both Eurasia and North America.
I will blame warmth in higher latitudes, as it is impossible that it was simply because I was WRONG.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on May 01, 2019, 11:00:52 AM
And here is a GIF of recent snow in North America.

Needs a click to start and plays 6 times.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 07, 2019, 09:41:58 PM
I looked at a map of northern Quebec and found a non-coastal location, Fort-Mackenzie, and looked up its weather forecast.  Rather wet to support a deepening snow cover.  There is plenty of snow on the ground, however, per this ECMWF/Global Euro model (https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/quebec/snow-depth-in.html) (60-80 inches is 150 to 200 mm).  Further north in Kangiqsujuaq, snow loss will be minimal
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on May 08, 2019, 06:48:42 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 7th May

All my predictions for April failed as snow loss became below average or even rose in both Eurasia and North America. I will blame warmth in higher latitudes, as it is impossible that it was simply because I was WRONG.

But now the blip seems to be over, and down comes SCE and SWE. Mostly +ve temperature anomalies at high latitudes in both North America and Eurasia should encourage further strong snow melt (even in the Northern part of Quebec Province)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Niall Dollard on May 08, 2019, 08:53:32 PM
Rutgers NH Snow cover extent for April was 29.06 million km2.

A negative anomaly of -1.16. (second negative month this spring).

Areas Below : Rockies, Canadian Plains and a ring running from Euro Russia across the Steppes to northern China.

Areas Above: Ontario, northern USA Plains and another ring across Asia (north of the aforementioned ring earlier).
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on May 09, 2019, 10:20:08 PM
An encouragement to snow melt at very high latitudes?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on May 13, 2019, 11:02:10 AM
The North wind won't blow,
And we won't have snow,
And what will poor Robin do then, poor thing?
His head from under his wing he'll bring,
And he'll sing, 'tis Spring, 'tis Spring!
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on May 17, 2019, 11:21:32 AM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 16th May

North America SCE and SWE now both within the +1 SD band again.

Eurasia a little bit above the +1 SD band. But as far as SWE is concerned, most of the anomaly looks like snow in the Himalayas and Tibet.

The warm afternoons and rapidly increasing insolation are killing off the snow.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on May 18, 2019, 10:04:29 AM
Those warm afternoons in North America.....
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on May 23, 2019, 01:09:08 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 16th May

North America SCE and SWE staying within the +1 SD band. Despite the massive snow mass maximum, the only real effect seems to be the impact on the Spring / early summer floods down the Mississippi catchment (that drains half of the USA).

Eurasia a little bit above the +1 SD band. But as far as SWE is concerned, most of the anomaly looks like snow in the Himalayas and Tibet.

The warm afternoons and rapidly increasing insolation are killing off the snow as normal.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: be cause on May 23, 2019, 01:18:37 PM
has the new ice age we were expecting in Quebec been avoided again ? b.c.

 ps .. looks like snow in Scotland is a possibility in a week's time ..
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on May 23, 2019, 03:50:25 PM
has the new ice age we were expecting in Quebec been avoided again ? b.c.

 ps .. looks like snow in Scotland is a possibility in a week's time ..
Technically it wasn't avoided last year, as snow remained extant on the Torngat Mountains through summer. If it continues this year, I would say that (potentially?) legitimately constitutes the commencement of re-glaciation.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: be cause on May 23, 2019, 04:30:19 PM
 bbr .. when the snow is advancing out of corries I will agree with you .. and come visit .. :) b.c.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Comradez on May 23, 2019, 05:17:16 PM
I would be very surprised if any snow in Quebec/Labrador survived this summer.  There are already bare patches on Baffin Island, and most of Quebec is snow-free already.  Rutgers global snow lab confirms that northern Quebec is actually melting ahead of schedule this year.  Last year's exceptionally late melt there looks like a fluke. 
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on May 23, 2019, 07:40:54 PM
It's not looking very good for the re-glaciation. They already predict temperatures of 10 degree C near the Hudson Bay, even north of it. And it's not even June. Maybe it's a special year. Sunspots are at zero, and lets assume that has a little effect. Would it be possible that when something changes at that buring bol of gas, that keeps us all alive. That it would not have an effect on this planet ? So lets assume it does. Than somewhere now the surface from from which the ocean is relasing some of it's heat, is at it's maximum. Could that be a problem for bbr's theory.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on May 23, 2019, 08:06:43 PM
I would be very surprised if any snow in Quebec/Labrador survived this summer.  There are already bare patches on Baffin Island, and most of Quebec is snow-free already.  Rutgers global snow lab confirms that northern Quebec is actually melting ahead of schedule this year.  Last year's exceptionally late melt there looks like a fluke.
I think the Torngat Mountains may see some survive, but elsewhere, you are most definitely correct. However, there is still substantial + coverage anomalies over elevated parts of Quebec, even though northern bits are now deficient. Elevation is key.

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/plot_anom_sdep.png)

I would also take D3+ forecasts for the region with a grain of salt, the models have been consistently too warm so far. Does that mean the snow in southern / central Quebec isn't going to melt? No, it will most definitely (99.999%) melt. But, I think there's still a good chance we repeat last year's situation in the high coastal mountains.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 23, 2019, 08:12:05 PM
ECMWF model  (https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/quebec/snow-depth-in.html)for today. Quite a contract from May 7 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2376.msg198292.html#msg198292).
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 24, 2019, 12:05:50 AM
has the new ice age we were expecting in Quebec been avoided again ? b.c.

 ps .. looks like snow in Scotland is a possibility in a week's time ..
Technically it wasn't avoided last year, as snow remained extant on the Torngat Mountains through summer. If it continues this year, I would say that (potentially?) legitimately constitutes the commencement of re-glaciation.

So that would be, I guess, a mini mini ice age?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: be cause on May 24, 2019, 01:30:09 AM
 .. I once kept a snow ball in a freezer .. I guess that qualifies too  ? :) b.c.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 24, 2019, 07:29:05 PM
Hmmmm....

Maybe the Torngat Mountains will need more than a couple of seasons of snow surviving before we can declare a reglaciation in progress.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/torngat-mountains-glaciers-shrinking-faster-says-researcher-1.3181492
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on May 24, 2019, 09:44:02 PM
Hmmmm....

Maybe the Torngat Mountains will need more than a couple of seasons of snow surviving before we can declare a reglaciation in progress.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/torngat-mountains-glaciers-shrinking-faster-says-researcher-1.3181492

I highly doubt that study incorporates substantial data since 2012. If you were looking through that point, you would be correct. But temperatures last year were substantially below normal, and they have been falling since 2012 in general in northern Quebec.

I am not saying the study is wrong re: what it explicitly covers -- if it had quantified the years over which it purports to measure, I am sure it is probably correct (since I highly doubt it includes the past few years). But my entire argument has been that we have passed a tipping point to where the changes are now beneficial for snowcover retention.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 25, 2019, 02:05:11 PM
Hmmmm....

Maybe the Torngat Mountains will need more than a couple of seasons of snow surviving before we can declare a reglaciation in progress.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/torngat-mountains-glaciers-shrinking-faster-says-researcher-1.3181492

I highly doubt that study incorporates substantial data since 2012. If you were looking through that point, you would be correct. But temperatures last year were substantially below normal, and they have been falling since 2012 in general in northern Quebec.

I am not saying the study is wrong re: what it explicitly covers -- if it had quantified the years over which it purports to measure, I am sure it is probably correct (since I highly doubt it includes the past few years). But my entire argument has been that we have passed a tipping point to where the changes are now beneficial for snowcover retention.

Recent research can fairly precisely quantify that the glaciers in the Torngat Mountains have shrunk significantly from 1950 to 2005.

https://www.the-cryosphere.net/11/157/2017/

The trend suggests that these glaciers will eventually disappear due to rising temperatures. It is silly to state that having snow persist for a single season is evidence of an impending reglaciation.


"Technically it wasn't avoided last year, as snow remained extant on the Torngat Mountains through summer. If it continues this year, I would say that (potentially?) legitimately constitutes the commencement of re-glaciation."


What is most frustrating for me is that the subject of this thread which addresses NH snow cover is very relevant. Given the changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, we should expect to see significant changes in snow cover and patterns as the earth warms. Tracking and analyzing snow cover could provide us with ideas as to what we can expect in the future. It is unfortunate that the thread is used only to amplify your pet theory of the impending reglaciation of the NH.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 25, 2019, 02:14:41 PM
A question I wish was being explored on this thread...

The high Arctic is classified as a desert based on precipitation.

http://www.enviropedia.org.uk/Climate/Rainfall_Patterns.php

As the northern latitudes warm with the resulting increase in precipitable moisture, what impact does increased snowfall have on the permafrost and sea ice? This question is even more pressing, given the dramatic increase of warm air intrusions into the Arctic.

I am sure persons on this site with far more knowledge than me could provide even more intriguing questions to explore on this thread.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Klondike Kat on May 25, 2019, 03:23:06 PM
A question I wish was being explored on this thread...

The high Arctic is classified as a desert based on precipitation.

http://www.enviropedia.org.uk/Climate/Rainfall_Patterns.php

As the northern latitudes warm with the resulting increase in precipitable moisture, what impact does increased snowfall have on the permafrost and sea ice? This question is even more pressing, given the dramatic increase of warm air intrusions into the Arctic.

I am sure persons on this site with far more knowledge than me could provide even more intriguing questions to explore on this thread.

SH,
Perhaps this will help:

https://tos.org/oceanography/article/increased-arctic-precipitation-slows-down-sea-ice-melt-and-surface-warming

Increased precipitation (both rain and snowfall) are expected to becomes a large, negative feedback on Arctic temperatures and sea ice.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on May 25, 2019, 05:14:06 PM
Hmmmm....

Maybe the Torngat Mountains will need more than a couple of seasons of snow surviving before we can declare a reglaciation in progress.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/torngat-mountains-glaciers-shrinking-faster-says-researcher-1.3181492

I highly doubt that study incorporates substantial data since 2012. If you were looking through that point, you would be correct. But temperatures last year were substantially below normal, and they have been falling since 2012 in general in northern Quebec.

I am not saying the study is wrong re: what it explicitly covers -- if it had quantified the years over which it purports to measure, I am sure it is probably correct (since I highly doubt it includes the past few years). But my entire argument has been that we have passed a tipping point to where the changes are now beneficial for snowcover retention.

Recent research can fairly precisely quantify that the glaciers in the Torngat Mountains have shrunk significantly from 1950 to 2005.

https://www.the-cryosphere.net/11/157/2017/

The trend suggests that these glaciers will eventually disappear due to rising temperatures. It is silly to state that having snow persist for a single season is evidence of an impending reglaciation.


"Technically it wasn't avoided last year, as snow remained extant on the Torngat Mountains through summer. If it continues this year, I would say that (potentially?) legitimately constitutes the commencement of re-glaciation."


What is most frustrating for me is that the subject of this thread which addresses NH snow cover is very relevant. Given the changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, we should expect to see significant changes in snow cover and patterns as the earth warms. Tracking and analyzing snow cover could provide us with ideas as to what we can expect in the future. It is unfortunate that the thread is used only to amplify your pet theory of the impending reglaciation of the NH.
You literally proved my point. The study ended in 2005. The change has been occurring since 2012.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: be cause on May 25, 2019, 05:22:14 PM
bbr .. no way was your point re glaciation proven .. technically it was avoided last year .. unless you can provide evidence that snow accrued so that glaciers started to grow ; or new ice started to leave new or old corries as the mass of accumulated snow created new mobile ice .. b.c.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on May 25, 2019, 05:27:43 PM
bbr .. no way was your point re glaciation proven .. technically it was avoided last year .. unless you can provide evidence that snow accrued so that glaciers started to grow ; or new ice started to leave new or old corries as the mass of accumulated snow created new mobile ice .. b.c.
...my point was that the studies did not take into account post 2012 data. Did you bother reading my posts? The illiteracy is strong in this thread, SH keeps posting non sequitur after non sequitur when the entire point of my thesis has been that 2012 was a phase shift / flipping point and since then we have been descending into a new climactic state. Data pre-2012 would not cover this and the trend only became substantially significant in 2017-2018-2019.

The rhetoric from SH et al is similar to the deniers who would say that, without a BOE, the Arctic is fine and dandy. Similarly stupid. By the time BOE or widespread reglaciation occur, sh*t will hit the fan so substantially that we may no longer even be able to discuss these issues as a community due to worsening global events and failure of the internet (or censorship).
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 25, 2019, 06:16:48 PM
Hmmmm....

I post a comment with a link to research on the shrinking of glaciers in the Torngat Mountains and you accuse me of rhetoric.

Carry on. I'll periodically visit this thread with additional items to be discussed regarding NH snow in an effort to make this thread useful.

bbr2314... I would like to compliment you on your recent restraint in posting comments on other threads about the threat presented by the rapidly approaching ice age.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on May 25, 2019, 06:21:48 PM
Hmmmm....

I post a comment with a link to research on the shrinking of glaciers in the Torngat Mountains and you accuse me of rhetoric.

Carry on. I'll periodically visit this thread with additional items to be discussed regarding NH snow in an effort to make this thread useful.

bbr2314... I would like to compliment you on your recent restraint in posting comments on other threads about the threat presented by the rapidly approaching ice age.
Thank you! And my rhetoric comment is meant re: repeating the studies that only go through pre-2012 data.  :)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 25, 2019, 06:23:10 PM
A question I wish was being explored on this thread...

The high Arctic is classified as a desert based on precipitation.

http://www.enviropedia.org.uk/Climate/Rainfall_Patterns.php

As the northern latitudes warm with the resulting increase in precipitable moisture, what impact does increased snowfall have on the permafrost and sea ice? This question is even more pressing, given the dramatic increase of warm air intrusions into the Arctic.

I am sure persons on this site with far more knowledge than me could provide even more intriguing questions to explore on this thread.

SH,
Perhaps this will help:

https://tos.org/oceanography/article/increased-arctic-precipitation-slows-down-sea-ice-melt-and-surface-warming

Increased precipitation (both rain and snowfall) are expected to becomes a large, negative feedback on Arctic temperatures and sea ice.

There is a growing body of research that shows that increased snowfall in the high latitudes is accelerating the degradation of permafrost due to the insulating properties of snow as just a foot of snow is required to insulate the ground from the brutal cold temperatures.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/08/news-arctic-permafrost-may-thaw-faster-than-expected/

This is just an article. I will search for some relevant research on the topic.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on May 25, 2019, 06:30:41 PM
A question I wish was being explored on this thread...

The high Arctic is classified as a desert based on precipitation.

http://www.enviropedia.org.uk/Climate/Rainfall_Patterns.php

As the northern latitudes warm with the resulting increase in precipitable moisture, what impact does increased snowfall have on the permafrost and sea ice? This question is even more pressing, given the dramatic increase of warm air intrusions into the Arctic.

I am sure persons on this site with far more knowledge than me could provide even more intriguing questions to explore on this thread.

SH,
Perhaps this will help:

https://tos.org/oceanography/article/increased-arctic-precipitation-slows-down-sea-ice-melt-and-surface-warming

Increased precipitation (both rain and snowfall) are expected to becomes a large, negative feedback on Arctic temperatures and sea ice.

There is a growing body of research that shows that increased snowfall in the high latitudes is accelerating the degradation of permafrost due to the insulating properties of snow as just a foot of snow is required to insulate the ground from the brutal cold temperatures.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/08/news-arctic-permafrost-may-thaw-faster-than-expected/

This is just an article. I will search for some relevant research on the topic.
I think it is interesting to see all the fires in Canada this year, which IMO, appear unprecedented. Besides the impact on permafrost, more snow earlier / later in the year cannot be good for maintaining vegetation, perhaps explaining why we are seeing more fires (more die-off combined with hotter temperatures = fuel).
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Neven on May 25, 2019, 07:27:35 PM
How about you guys only quoting the parts of comments that you're going to reply to, instead of the whole comment with other embedded quotes?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 25, 2019, 07:55:36 PM
How about you guys only quoting the parts of comments that you're going to reply to, instead of the whole comment with other embedded quotes?

Yes, please! That would make reading the forum soooo much easier!
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 25, 2019, 08:04:45 PM
From the paper An inventory and topographic analysis of glaciers in the Torngat Mountains, northern Labrador, Canada (https://www.igsoc.org/journal/60/223/t13j195.pdf)
Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 60, No. 223, 2014  doi: 10.3189/2014JoG13J195

Quote
More recently, in a pilot study of change detection on a subset of the 96 largest Torngat glaciers, Brown and others (2012) documented a 9% decrease in ice area between 2005 and 2008 using glacier outlines mapped from SPOT5(Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre) imagery (2008) and this study (2005). The recent reduction of glacier ice in the Torngat Mountains was interpreted as a response to both higher summer air temperatures and a multi-decadal decline in winter precipitation (Brown and others, 2012). A full analysis of change detection over the past 60 years for all glaciers and ice masses in the Torngat Mountains, including field surveys, is currently in progress.
First, the paper isn't 'just' 2005 (and older) data. (Yes, it doesn't include post 2012 data.)  2nd, these glaciers are mostly (at least) in Labrador; not sure how many are in Quebec.  3rd, we certainly look forward to the (what was and may still be) 'in progress' survey.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on May 25, 2019, 08:33:43 PM
3rd, we certainly look forward to the (what was and may still be) 'in progress' survey.

From Environment Canada.. I get the feeling the Torngat glaciers aren't at the top of the to-do list.

https://ccin.ca/ccw/glaciers/future
Quote
Numerical models on the influence of changing climate on glacier mass balance are required to evaluate the magnitude and significance of the changes in glacier volume which might occur. To date, however, the development of numerical mass balance models specifically applicable to Arctic glaciers (where most of Canada's ice resides) has been hindered by the lack of detailed field datasets required to drive the models and evaluate their performance. Currently, scientists are working on a detailed meteorological and mass balance dataset collected at John Evans Glacier, Ellesmere Island, Nunavut to develop detailed numerical mass balance models.

Environment and Climate Change Canada and Natural Resources Canada amalgamated their glacier science expertise in a National Glaciology Program. The program improves our understanding of how Canada's glacier and water resources are responding to climate change, enables us to develop adaptive strategies for managing these resources, and provides better information on the movement, deposition and volume of pollution in our environment.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on May 25, 2019, 09:38:15 PM
3rd, we certainly look forward to the (what was and may still be) 'in progress' survey.

From Environment Canada.. I get the feeling the Torngat glaciers aren't at the top of the to-do list.

https://ccin.ca/ccw/glaciers/future
Quote
Numerical models on the influence of changing climate on glacier mass balance are required to evaluate the magnitude and significance of the changes in glacier volume which might occur. To date, however, the development of numerical mass balance models specifically applicable to Arctic glaciers (where most of Canada's ice resides) has been hindered by the lack of detailed field datasets required to drive the models and evaluate their performance. Currently, scientists are working on a detailed meteorological and mass balance dataset collected at John Evans Glacier, Ellesmere Island, Nunavut to develop detailed numerical mass balance models.

Environment and Climate Change Canada and Natural Resources Canada amalgamated their glacier science expertise in a National Glaciology Program. The program improves our understanding of how Canada's glacier and water resources are responding to climate change, enables us to develop adaptive strategies for managing these resources, and provides better information on the movement, deposition and volume of pollution in our environment.
Everyone forgets about the lil' ole' Torngat Mountains, but we do not!
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 26, 2019, 12:13:57 AM
Research article is pay walled but the abstract indicates that snow depth has an impact on permafrost and can contribute to its degradation. It would be interesting to have historical maps of snow cover and depth and compare this to changes in permafrost. At any rate, if we are seeing deeper and earlier snows, it cannot be a good thing for the permafrost.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2356-5

Given that NH SWE anomalies are consistently higher than extent anomalies, we can only conclude that the snow is deeper over the far north.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 26, 2019, 04:20:28 AM
NSIDC has good permafrost maps.

https://nsidc.org/data/search/#keywords=frozen+ground/sortKeys=score,,desc/facetFilters=%257B%257D/pageNumber=1/itemsPerPage=25

Would be interesting to track a season of snow fall to see where the heavy early snows fall in relationship to the permafrost.

If you pull up the map on NSIDC website you can magnify the map to see all of the detail.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 26, 2019, 02:55:19 PM
I would like to thank bbr2314 for tracking snowfall since last fall. He has given us a good record for snow cover in relationship to permafrost in NA. I've copied a snow cover depth map that he provided on September 28 and the story it tells is not good for the permafrost in some areas of Canada. Research shows that a foot of early season snow is enough to insulate permafrost from the brutal cold of the northern latitude winters, preventing the surface layer from refreezing. Looking at this map, it is obvious that much of the permafrost in northern Quebec is at risk if this seasonal pattern of heavy early snows in this region is the new normal.

Is there any source for snow cover from a couple of decades ago? Is this heavy snowfall in northern Quebec a new phenomenon?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 26, 2019, 03:21:51 PM
Thought I would repost this land cover map for Canada that was posted on this thread last fall. It is interesting to see how the land cover map closely matches the permafrost map. I suppose this is not surprising but it does provide us with an idea of how land cover will change as permafrost degrades.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 26, 2019, 03:24:42 PM
bbr2314...I would like to apologize to you for comments I made earlier about wishing this thread included other topics and not just your concerns about reglaciation as if this was somehow your responsibility. If I would like other relevant topics about NH snow cover to be discussed, that is my responsibility.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 26, 2019, 03:56:55 PM
Since permafrost is very slow to change, I see the map of discontinuous and continuous permafrost as a good proxy for regional climate. Individual seasons have no real effect on permafrost.

Given this, I find it very interesting that permafrost in eastern Canada extends 10 degrees latitude further south than western Canada.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on May 26, 2019, 11:02:11 PM
The models show intervals of warmth, but overall, Quebec looks to have the lowest 500MB heights in the hemisphere by the medium-long range. And it comes with... you guessed it...

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019052612/gem_asnow_namer_40.png)

Will it be sustainable? No. But will it be sufficient to retain cover through summer across the mountains? We shall see. I think this illustrates why Quebec has permafrost so much further south than western Canada -- it is both elevation, proximity to Hudson Bay's sea ice, and proximity to the Greenland ice cap. And, in recent years -- as in this year as well -- the worsening area of anomalies in the NATL.

The NATL anomalies have cooled further over the last 30 days as all the snowmelt has reached the ocean.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on May 29, 2019, 08:38:34 PM
Rain in NE Canada will do the remaining snow a mischief
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on May 30, 2019, 10:13:43 AM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 29th May

Change since last posting?- less snow.

North America SCE and SWE staying within the +1 SD band. Despite the massive snow mass maximum, the only real effect seems to be the impact on the Spring / early summer floods down the Mississippi catchment (that drains half of the USA).

Eurasia a little bit above the +1 SD band. But as far as SWE is concerned, most of the anomaly looks like snow in the Himalayas and Tibet.

The warm and long afternoons and rapidly increasing insolation are killing off the snow as normal.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on May 31, 2019, 12:52:33 PM
Start to say goodbye to Snow in NE Canada including the Torngat Mountains

Quebec - Ce n'est pas glacé

and that's all I'm going to say about that
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on May 31, 2019, 01:57:46 PM
Start to say goodbye to Snow in NE Canada including the Torngat Mountains

Quebec - Ce n'est pas glacé

and that's all I'm going to say about that
Is that GFS output? It is always wrong. I would go with the CMC (it may show the same, I have not looked, but I doubt it does).
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 31, 2019, 09:22:12 PM
Would they get May 31 wrong? That's today.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on May 31, 2019, 09:43:19 PM
Would they get May 31 wrong? That's today.

It is horrific, but the CMC appears to (mostly) agree as well by the end of its run.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on June 01, 2019, 10:47:03 AM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 31st May

Posting this as it is the end of the month and the beginning of another.

Change since last posting?- less snow.

North America SCE and SWE staying within the +1 SD band. Despite the massive snow mass maximum, the only real effect seems to be the impact on the Spring / early summer floods down the Mississippi catchment area (that drains half of the USA).

Eurasia a little bit above the +1 SD band. But as far as SWE is concerned, most of the anomaly looks like snow in the Himalayas and Tibet.

The warm and long afternoons and rapidly increasing insolation are killing off the snow as normal.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on June 01, 2019, 11:52:43 AM
The Northern Hemisphere snow map from Environment Canada (@ https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current ) shows that the melting season in the high arctic latitudes is coming to an end without much drama.

Indeed, the greatest interest will be in South Asia, as the monsoon arrives and the extreme high snow mass in the Himalayas and the Tibetan plateau melts.

In the high Arctic attention switches to developments in the Tundra, permafrost melting, wildfires. So temperatures and precipitation are now what really matters. Does a dry Central Arctic Ocean mean higher rainfall on high latitude lands?

But as a reprise I kept images of North America snow extent for most days from late April. I attach the gif. I assume it will need a click, and it will go 6 times before stopping. The frame speed is low because I am slow, and at the end it takes a 3 second breather before recommencing.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on June 01, 2019, 12:09:54 PM
What could be really interesting is SWE statistics by major drainage areas (Mississippi Missouri, Mackenzie, Hudson Bay, St. Lawrence), both to assess flooding risk and possible effects on ocean regions. And maybe that will put an end to the Younger Dryas repetition claims, while focusing on the actual effects of too much winter snow.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on June 01, 2019, 04:34:36 PM
What could be really interesting is SWE statistics by major drainage areas (Mississippi Missouri, Mackenzie, Hudson Bay, St. Lawrence), both to assess flooding risk and possible effects on ocean regions. And maybe that will put an end to the Younger Dryas repetition claims, while focusing on the actual effects of too much winter snow.
Right, like the lack of a BOE in 2019 would put an end to the possibility of such an occurrence within the decade.  ::)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: kassy on June 01, 2019, 04:44:31 PM
Re 417: i really like that speed and i am not even that old.  ;)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Niall Dollard on June 06, 2019, 12:39:39 AM
Rutgers nh snow cover extent for May 2019 was 17.06 million km2

A negative anomaly of just under 2 million km2

Much of western Canada and western Siberia was below normal with the only anomalously large area above normal being southern Quebec.

Looking at the downward bar trends for 2019 a negative anomaly of -3.0 million km2 looks on the cards for June. 
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on June 08, 2019, 01:24:07 PM
Which will melt out first, the Russian Blob or the Canadian Blob ?

When will those fragments in NE Canada finally expire?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Klondike Kat on June 08, 2019, 04:50:37 PM
Which will melt out first, the Russian Blob or the Canadian Blob ?

When will those fragments in NE Canada finally expire?

Russia, definitely. 
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 08, 2019, 06:44:54 PM
Rutgers nh snow cover extent for May 2019 was 17.06 million km2

A negative anomaly of just under 2 million km2

Much of western Canada and western Siberia was below normal with the only anomalously large area above normal being southern Quebec.

Looking at the downward bar trends for 2019 a negative anomaly of -3.0 million km2 looks on the cards for June.

That chart clearly shows that the trend towards large positive NH snow anomalies in the late fall and early winter due to the increase in atmospheric moisture will be consistently followed by large negative NH snow anomalies in the spring due to the onset of rapid melt driven by increased NH temperatures. Four straight years of this behavior is more than coincidence IMHO. What did the 1st five years of this decade look like?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Niall Dollard on June 10, 2019, 11:40:24 PM
Rutgers nh snow cover extent for May 2019 was 17.06 million km2

A negative anomaly of just under 2 million km2

Much of western Canada and western Siberia was below normal with the only anomalously large area above normal being southern Quebec.

Looking at the downward bar trends for 2019 a negative anomaly of -3.0 million km2 looks on the cards for June.

That chart clearly shows that the trend towards large positive NH snow anomalies in the late fall and early winter due to the increase in atmospheric moisture will be consistently followed by large negative NH snow anomalies in the spring due to the onset of rapid melt driven by increased NH temperatures. Four straight years of this behavior is more than coincidence IMHO. What did the 1st five years of this decade look like?

Monthly anomalies for years 2010 to 2014 also show the rise in snow cover in the autumn and equally low snow cover in the crucial April to June period.

Looking at all these years together, 2017 was the only one with good snow cover in the April/May/June period.

Also see the massive -4.5 million km2 anomaly for June 2012. No doubt contributing to that sea ice extent June cliff.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 11, 2019, 01:27:04 AM
Thanks Niall. With the consistent early and strong melt of NH snow, we better hope we don't have a poor fall and early winter snow or we are in serious trouble.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Rod on June 12, 2019, 09:52:54 PM
I think your new glacier is in trouble Bbr.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on June 14, 2019, 11:56:31 PM
I think your new glacier is in trouble Bbr.
I flew over Quebec today and snowcover was still plentiful in the mountains. Pics forthcoming.  ;D
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Rod on June 15, 2019, 12:10:10 AM
Nice bbr!  I can’t wait to see them.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on June 15, 2019, 12:38:12 AM
Location, sea ice (+ icebergs?), and SNOW! No one tell Greta that there were only three people in the 12-suite first class cabin and that I had a sitting suite and a sleeping suite (yay Singapore Airlines!)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Rod on June 15, 2019, 12:55:21 AM
Congrats on the suite.  I can see a little bit of snow.  Too bad it was so cloudy.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on June 15, 2019, 12:59:56 AM
Congrats on the suite.  I can see a little bit of snow.  Too bad it was so cloudy.
Yes, and unfortunately the best pic is rotated poorly...

In any case, snowcover was abundant (though hard to capture) close to the coast. Once inland, it dropped off quite quickly.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: HapHazard on June 15, 2019, 11:04:57 AM
Snow on mountains, eh? Colour me surprised.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on June 15, 2019, 12:15:58 PM
Snow on mountains, eh? Colour me surprised.
Merely surprised? No shock, horror, amazement. Is there an emoji for aghast?

From Environment Canada snow map of 14 June attached showing departure from average for all Arctic and another map for N. Ameriky snow cover extent only.

NE Canada has a few shreds left. Of greater interest is the CAA - mixed signals from GFS on temperatures and precipitation over the week or so. For how long will the snow hold out?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on June 15, 2019, 01:15:26 PM
North America Snow 2018-2019
And just a reminder that if only looking at the snow in N. America today the extraordinary event of February / March might never have happened.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on June 15, 2019, 01:39:56 PM
It turns out that excessively heavy winter snow serves for excessive spring meltwater, not for excessive spring snowcover.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on June 15, 2019, 02:36:28 PM
It turns out that excessively heavy winter snow serves for excessive spring meltwater, not for excessive spring snowcover.
Both occurred this year in Quebec...
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on June 17, 2019, 12:34:50 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 16th June

North America snow melt quite impressive in June.

I wish there were Eurasia graphs from Environment Canada that excluded the Himalayas/Tibetan Plateau as snow there is still massively above normal mass, completely distorting the reality in the high Arctic latitudes.

If wishes were horses.... but wait, is that the sound of a herd of horses thundering into me back garden?
___________________________________________
Click on gif to play (plays 5 times)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on June 21, 2019, 05:00:07 PM
A blob of snow on the Central Siberian shore, and directly opposite snow on the CAA and the Canadian mainland adjoining refuse to die. (and a tiny blob in the Torngat mountains and North East Canadian coast. The Quebec glacial sheet lives!)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 25, 2019, 01:51:06 AM
North America SWE is now normal. Huge positive anomalies have been overcome by warm weather.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on June 29, 2019, 12:45:38 PM
At the moment things not looking so good for the future glaciation of Quebec , perhaps especially for the glaciers in the Torngat Mountains.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/14-day-weather-trend/newfoundland-and-labrador/torngat-mountains-national-park-reserve

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/GIF/comb_recent.png
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: kassy on June 29, 2019, 06:40:19 PM
Any chance these lines are going to cross?

The day time low is nicely consistent. Buddies of mine went to hike in Norway. First day , too much chatting so they did not make the targeted end point but the put their tents at a beautiful spot. It was cold though, very cold. Next morning they discovered they actually camped just meters of a glacier.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: magnamentis on June 29, 2019, 07:01:02 PM
they can cross in case of a rainy cool day and a sunny night accompanied perhaps with some foehn winds ;)

after the questions is whether it can be warmer at night than during the day and the answer is clearly yes IMO.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Rod on June 30, 2019, 04:04:07 AM
At the moment things not looking so good for the future glaciation of Quebec , perhaps especially for the glaciers in the Torngat Mountains.


Bbr, I think your glacier is about to bite the dust.  I think you promised everyone on the forum a beer if that happens didn’t you 🤔

Just kidding.  I know you didn’t, but if you can afford fancy suites on international airlines you should still buy us all a beer anyway. 
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on June 30, 2019, 05:00:04 AM
At the moment things not looking so good for the future glaciation of Quebec , perhaps especially for the glaciers in the Torngat Mountains.


Bbr, I think your glacier is about to bite the dust.  I think you promised everyone on the forum a beer if that happens didn’t you 🤔

Just kidding.  I know you didn’t, but if you can afford fancy suites on international airlines you should still buy us all a beer anyway.
The return ticket was a grand total of $99 USD thanks to my miles, only an insane person would pay for that seat, I am good with my saver tickets. The flight there was only $4.95.   ;D

I wonder if ^ would make Greta more or less angry.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Rod on June 30, 2019, 05:08:38 AM
So does that mean you are going to buy us all a beer 🤔. 

😂😂😂
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on June 30, 2019, 05:10:49 AM
So does that mean you are going to buy us all a beer 🤔. 

😂😂😂
8) 8) 8)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Rod on June 30, 2019, 05:16:56 AM
I’m just messing with you Bbr. People give you a hard time because you have a crazy theory about a new impending ice age.

I view you as one of the best weather forecasters on the forum.  I don’t agree with all of your theories, I do respect what you have to say. 

Thank you for being an active participant on these forums 👍🏻
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on June 30, 2019, 05:26:45 AM
I’m just messing with you Bbr. People give you a hard time because you have a crazy theory about a new impending ice age.

I view you as one of the best weather forecasters on the forum.  I don’t agree with all of your theories, I do respect what you have to say. 

Thank you for being an active participant on these forums 👍🏻
Now you get a beer  ;D
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 30, 2019, 06:30:40 AM
I'll agree about your weather forecasts.  ;)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on July 01, 2019, 12:50:12 PM
I think this is my last post on this thread - not a lot of snow left to talk about.

Click to watch North America snow melt .
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 01, 2019, 06:31:12 PM
Hey, I can see maybe 4 white pixels in north Quebec at the end.  You quitter, you!  >:( :o ::)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: TerryM on July 04, 2019, 09:28:32 PM
Hey, I can see maybe 4 white pixels in north Quebec at the end.  You quitter, you!  >:( :o ::)


Next season Please notice the boundary between Quebec and Newfoundland & Labrador.
Terry
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 04, 2019, 10:28:07 PM
I'm moderately familiar with where the Quebec-Newfoundland boundary is, (and, in alignment with your plea, plan to retain that familiarity).  The white pixels I see (dare I say I see about 6 now) are definitely within Quebec, along the coast near the Hudson Strait and at the northernmost point of the province.  Except right along the NL border, no place for a glacier to hide, grow or bare grudges (and the grudges belong to the border region).
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on July 05, 2019, 09:04:21 PM
There is still snow in the Torngats as of 7/4. The last good EOSDIS image was 6/29 but the situation is mostly unchanged. It will endure substantial or total melt, but it is certainly still there.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on July 05, 2019, 09:41:56 PM
The Torngat mountain range has at least 120 glaciers. Doesn't the presence of these glaciers suggest that snow surviving through the summer is a regular occurrence?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on July 05, 2019, 09:58:04 PM
The Torngat mountain range has at least 120 glaciers. Doesn't the presence of these glaciers suggest that snow surviving through the summer is a regular occurrence?
They are not visible on satellite. Most years, 2018 excepted, all the visible snow melted.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on July 05, 2019, 10:01:17 PM
My guess is that this year, snow or no snow, those 120 glaciers will enter winter in worse shape than  the year before..

The border twixt NL and Quebec is the crest of the mountain chain? So whose got the most glaciers?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Niall Dollard on July 06, 2019, 04:18:22 PM
This study (https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/4aa4/84a48f4ede8af9370777fd2f71ebf20776e3.pdf) reckons 11 small glaciers in the Torngats vanished between the LIA and 2005.

 
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Niall Dollard on July 06, 2019, 04:22:57 PM
The Rutgers NH snow cover extent for June 2019 was 5.94 million km2.

This represents a negative departure of -3.48 million, just slightly less than 2016's large departure of -3.84 million.

Extent was below normal in practically all geographic areas.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on July 06, 2019, 05:24:30 PM
11 small glaciers in the Torngats vanished between the LIA and 2005.
Yep, but surely 14 years is a long time when it comes to these small mountain glaciers in marginal climes. bbr's contention is that in recent years AGW is causing a cold spot to develop in NE Canada - more snow and potential for glaciers to grow.

But without up-to-date field studies ..........
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on July 07, 2019, 11:51:16 AM
Hey, I can see maybe 4 white pixels in north Quebec at the end.  You quitter, you!  >:( :o ::)

OK, the insult worked. Just for you a gif. Needs a click.
"watch it very carefully, I will play it only once"

____________________________________________
ps: I will continue to produce a gif when there is no snow. Watching something that has no change can be restful.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: b_lumenkraft on July 07, 2019, 12:17:51 PM
I will play it only once

/me *cmd+r, cmd+r, cmd+r, cmd+r, cmd+r, cmd+r, cmd+r, cmd+r*
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: grixm on July 07, 2019, 01:31:12 PM
I will play it only once

/me *cmd+r, cmd+r, cmd+r, cmd+r, cmd+r, cmd+r, cmd+r, cmd+r*

I cannot get it to play again even by refreshing or opening the attachment again. What black magic is this?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on July 07, 2019, 01:41:59 PM
I will play it only once

/me *cmd+r, cmd+r, cmd+r, cmd+r, cmd+r, cmd+r, cmd+r, cmd+r*

I cannot get it to play again even by refreshing or opening the attachment again. What black magic is this?
Dunno.
I just wander down the thread, click the image and bingo.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 07, 2019, 07:32:43 PM
Fortunately, I enlarged Quebec to count pixels before being shut out of the GIF.  Only 2 white ones in the province, now, and one of them on the mid-bay coast.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on July 07, 2019, 07:43:37 PM
Fortunately, I enlarged Quebec to count pixels before being shut out of the GIF.  Only 2 white ones in the province, now, and one of them on the mid-bay coast.
I used the gif with changes on the melting thread.
So if you want to count some other pixels here it is.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg211606.html#msg211606

________________________________________
Pixel-counters. Worse than bean counters. Bleah.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: TerryM on July 08, 2019, 01:47:46 AM
I'm moderately familiar with where the Quebec-Newfoundland boundary is, (and, in alignment with your plea, plan to retain that familiarity).  The white pixels I see (dare I say I see about 6 now) are definitely within Quebec, along the coast near the Hudson Strait and at the northernmost point of the province.  Except right along the NL border, no place for a glacier to hide, grow or bare grudges (and the grudges belong to the border region).


Tor
Huge apologies Tor.


'Twas another that had driven me to madness by continuously conflating late spring ice lingering in Labrador with permanent glacial growth in Quebec. When you mentioned lingering ice in Quebec I lashed out, and blinded by my rage failed to notice whom I was flailing away at.


Sincerely Sorry for my Error
Contritely Yours
Terry  :-[
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 08, 2019, 02:42:22 AM
I, too, was irked  :)
I've been to Quebec (Expo 67), Ontario and two Maritime Provinces, but not very far north in the east, and not to Newfoundland and Labrador.  Traveling to Lake Huron's Georgian Bay seemed "far north" to me at the time!  I took a bus from Fairbanks, AK to Whitehorse, YT once (and bus/train to Skagway, AK), and have seen some of Alberta and British Columbia (Vancouver Island and up to Price Rupert, even Houston, BC).  I just learned, thanks to the internet, that Newfoundland changed its name in 2001; when I was a student 'learning things', Labrador was 'just' the big island part of Newfoundland. 

A graduate supervisor, however, did his PhD field work in Labrador (and I heard insect stories from him) and a friend spent a pleasant several days with a family in Gander in September 2001, an unexpected stay by all several thousand passengers in a similar happenstance.

I've seen snow fall in Alaska (August!), but none in Canada.  Does it even snow there? :o ::) :P
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: TerryM on July 08, 2019, 06:00:57 AM
Tor
Locally we still get some snow, but the river no longer regularly freezes over.


On the coasts of Labrador the raised beaches stretch hundreds of feet up the headlands which are still rebounding from the the melt of the last ice age.


The Harbor at L'Anse Aux Meadows in Newfoundland has apparently lost 5 meters in depth since the Vikings were there ~1M ago, and the sea is still receding.


The most shocking thing may be the retreat of the Athabasca Glacier between Banff and Jasper. It must have melted back miles since I first saw it some decades ago.
Cheers
Terry
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 08, 2019, 06:16:09 AM
My mom always used "M" to be "1,000 x", as it is a Roman Numeral. 

Ah, the glaciers I don't want to see again, as if I might recognize them.  I grew up with a water color of Lake Louise, but I don't recall if we went there when I was 10.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: TerryM on July 10, 2019, 02:22:37 AM
My mom always used "M" to be "1,000 x", as it is a Roman Numeral. 

Ah, the glaciers I don't want to see again, as if I might recognize them.  I grew up with a water color of Lake Louise, but I don't recall if we went there when I was 10.
Perhaps the use of "M" is a generational thing?


The color of the water in Lake Louis, and many other glacier fed lakes is too green to appear real. I've plenty of photos, but would hate to attempt painting it lest every viewer thought I was seeing the world through green hued lenses.  :-\
Terry

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on August 01, 2019, 12:56:53 PM
Attached is a gif of North America snow cover in July. Click to start. Plays 4? times and stops.

You can see the snow reducing on the islands of the CAA and the ice disappearing in Baffin Bay etc.
You can also see than snowfall never really stops in the NW Rockies and the mountains of Alaska.

In August we will see the snow attempting to return here and there.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: TerryM on August 02, 2019, 10:24:28 AM
^^ Great gif ^^


Thanks
Terry
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on August 07, 2019, 05:33:21 AM
First big falls of the season set to occur within next week or so over northern Alaska and the high elevation Rockies. Some runs of the extended GFS have been snowing substantial totals into the Lower 48 Rockies (Montana, Alberta).

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019080618/gfs_asnow_ak_41.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019080612/gem_asnow_ak_40.png)

Will be time for the new seasonal thread on 9/1 I suppose as that's when coverage should get more persistent (at least in places where it didn't last through that point ;) ).
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 07, 2019, 03:26:48 PM
Can’t wait. Might be better to first evaluate the snow that has survived this melt season.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on August 07, 2019, 04:12:44 PM
Can’t wait. Might be better to first evaluate the snow that has survived this melt season.
Attached are graphs and maps from Environment Canada
Note that Eurasia data includes the Himalayas and Tibet. As at end July, that is just about all the snow. The Rutgers data seems to be all Northern hemisphere as well. Bit of a bummer when we are interested in high latitudes only.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 07, 2019, 06:55:28 PM
Not surprising that the remaining positive snow anomalies are the coastal regions. No doubt the effect of open water induced snowfalls.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on August 10, 2019, 07:59:58 AM
Models now showing major snow totals, the puke-age should be starting within the next week.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019081000/gfs_asnow_ak_41.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019081000/gem_asnow_ak_40.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 10, 2019, 02:12:39 PM
Seems awfully early for heavy snowfall but this is Alaska. Do you know if this is early for snow?

Alaska has had the hottest summer on record.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/07/30/alaskas-summer-heat-has-been-basically-off-charts/

Earlier snowfall then usual will wreak havoc on the permafrost.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on August 10, 2019, 04:23:33 PM
Seems awfully early for heavy snowfall but this is Alaska. Do you know if this is early for snow?

Alaska has had the hottest summer on record.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/07/30/alaskas-summer-heat-has-been-basically-off-charts/

Earlier snowfall then usual will wreak havoc on the permafrost.
I am not sure but I think it is, although these forecasts are still not short-term (though amounts are now appearing in the short term). Even though it isn't snowing in Fairbanks or Anchorage just yet, I do think these high elevation events in AK and the Yukon are very early -- if they continue, it could be an indicator of a very early and severe winter across much of the continent(s) which IMO would be supported by the record amounts of potential water vapor (+SSTs) we have seen develop across the Arctic this year.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 10, 2019, 10:38:20 PM
I experienced sleet in Circle City (NE of Fairbanks) in late August ~40 years ago.  I didn't have a sense locals thought it was early.  Of course, it wasn't heavy snow, either.  The internet (https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?akcirc) suggests this location gets, on average, no snow in August and 25 mm in September and regular snowfall October through March (50 to 230 mm per month).  Circle is on the Yukon River where it meanders 175 m above sea level; that is, it ain't in the mountains.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 11, 2019, 12:10:14 AM
I experienced sleet in Circle City (NE of Fairbanks) in late August ~40 years ago.  I didn't have a sense locals thought it was early.  Of course, it wasn't heavy snow, either.  The internet (https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?akcirc) suggests this location gets, on average, no snow in August and 25 mm in September and regular snowfall October through March (50 to 230 mm per month).  Circle is on the Yukon River where it meanders 175 m above sea level; that is, it ain't in the mountains.

sounds like it might be normal...
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: DrTskoul on August 11, 2019, 12:26:39 AM
It is normal. I have seen snow in Calgary in August and September a few years ago, and the locals have seen snow all months of the year.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Sebastian Jones on August 11, 2019, 08:12:04 AM
It is not normal to have extensive snow here in August.
We expect to have snow above 2000m in August, but it is unusual below 1000m.
At 300m, where I live, we used to be assured of snow that stays in early October- and that temps would stay below freezing after (Canadian) Thanksgiving. But that seems to be changing.....
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on August 13, 2019, 12:47:41 PM
"The North Wind doth blow, and we will have snow."

I guess it is time to open a 2019-20 thread, but leaving this one open for the autopsy of 2018-19.
But not to be opened by me.

click gif to start
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Sebastian Jones on August 13, 2019, 06:41:09 PM
"The North Wind doth blow, and we will have snow."

I guess it is time to open a 2019-20 thread, but leaving this one open for the autopsy of 2018-19.
But not to be opened by me.

No sign of any snow build up leading to a recurrence of the Labrador ice sheet.
Yet.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on August 13, 2019, 06:43:50 PM
"The North Wind doth blow, and we will have snow."

I guess it is time to open a 2019-20 thread, but leaving this one open for the autopsy of 2018-19.
But not to be opened by me.

No sign of any snow build up leading to a recurrence of the Labrador ice sheet.
Yet.

The Torngat Mountains appear to have retained snowcover through summer but satellite is spotty and cloudy as of late. It does not get picked up on the low-res map you quoted.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Sebastian Jones on August 14, 2019, 05:10:53 AM

The Torngat Mountains appear to have retained snowcover through summer but satellite is spotty and cloudy as of late. It does not get picked up on the low-res map you quoted.

Dear BBR,
I really love your hypothesis about a reglaciation in Northern Labrador and Quebec.
I have always been fascinated with snow and ice, glaciers and permafrost.
It was a great disappointment to me when as a teenager in the '70s that I discovered that, no, the planet is not cooling off after all and I would not be able to witness glaciers reforming in Scotland (I was born in the UK).
I moved to a nice cold place as soon as I could, and have been mostly satisfied with the prevalence of snow and ice, glaciers and permafrost here in the Yukon.
There is a mountain range near me that was glaciated until the Holocene.
It was surrounded by ice free Beringia, so acted as a sort of refugium during the ice ages.
The glaciers are gone, but snow persisted through the summer and some ice patches are quite old.
This summer, for the first time in living memory, all the snow and ice melted.
No more glaciers on the horizon here.
So, while I rather doubt the feedbacks you detail will result in the regrowth of an ice sheet, be assured that I really, really hope I am wrong and you are right.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on August 14, 2019, 06:18:51 AM

The Torngat Mountains appear to have retained snowcover through summer but satellite is spotty and cloudy as of late. It does not get picked up on the low-res map you quoted.

Dear BBR,
I really love your hypothesis about a reglaciation in Northern Labrador and Quebec.
I have always been fascinated with snow and ice, glaciers and permafrost.
It was a great disappointment to me when as a teenager in the '70s that I discovered that, no, the planet is not cooling off after all and I would not be able to witness glaciers reforming in Scotland (I was born in the UK).
I moved to a nice cold place as soon as I could, and have been mostly satisfied with the prevalence of snow and ice, glaciers and permafrost here in the Yukon.
There is a mountain range near me that was glaciated until the Holocene.
It was surrounded by ice free Beringia, so acted as a sort of refugium during the ice ages.
The glaciers are gone, but snow persisted through the summer and some ice patches are quite old.
This summer, for the first time in living memory, all the snow and ice melted.
No more glaciers on the horizon here.
So, while I rather doubt the feedbacks you detail will result in the regrowth of an ice sheet, be assured that I really, really hope I am wrong and you are right.
I actually hope I am wrong, as I think this would be a death knell for the current world, but I appreciate your kind words, and I envy your location!  :)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 14, 2019, 03:18:46 PM
"The North Wind doth blow, and we will have snow."

I guess it is time to open a 2019-20 thread, but leaving this one open for the autopsy of 2018-19.
But not to be opened by me.

No sign of any snow build up leading to a recurrence of the Labrador ice sheet.
Yet.

The Torngat Mountains appear to have retained snowcover through summer but satellite is spotty and cloudy as of late. It does not get picked up on the low-res map you quoted.

The Torngats have around 130 small glaciers, most of them shrinking. For glaciers to exist, snow would have to survive the melt season routinely.