Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Off-topic => The rest => Topic started by: sidd on August 22, 2018, 10:16:23 AM

Title: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on August 22, 2018, 10:16:23 AM
Kick it off with an article from the only news publication one needs to read, all the news you need to know, America's  finest news source:

--

It’s clear that the disgusting and disgraceful voters are going to try to influence the midterms ...

...

We’ve got voters with ulterior motives online, too, trying to influence people by spreading information about candidates on social media. We absolutely cannot as a society allow voters to meddle in our elections, and
if we don’t do something, voters will try to interfere with the 2020 presidential election, too.

...

 ... attempting to calm him down by reminding him that there was virtually no evidence to suggest that American voters were interested in influencing midterm elections.

--

https://politics.theonion.com/trump-accuses-voters-of-meddling-in-midterms-1828472837

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on August 24, 2018, 10:37:24 PM
Balderson(R) wins OH-12 congressional in close election. Rematch in November.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/403480-ap-balderson-wins-ohio-special-election

sidd
 
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 24, 2018, 11:25:51 PM
I voted "early" in the Florida primary election this afternoon.  My wife had forgotten that our 'regular voting place' is a church because we have early-voted at a branch library for years.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: litesong on August 25, 2018, 02:11:53 AM
Balderson(R) wins OH-12 congressional in close election. Rematch in November.
Balderdash wins by 1%, in a region that "don'T rump" won be 10% in 2016.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: TerryM on August 25, 2018, 02:34:04 AM
Balderson(R) wins OH-12 congressional in close election. Rematch in November.
Balderdash wins by 1%, in a region that "don'T rump" won be 10% in 2016.
That's just Despicable Flyover Territory. We told them they all deserved a "Special place in Hell", for not having voted for Hillary.
They're nothing more than a bunch of inbred, racist Rednecks. We're the "Party of Inclusion".


/sarc
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: litesong on August 25, 2018, 02:53:31 AM
They're nothing more than a bunch of inbred, racist Rednecks.
Hey, hey, hey..... Millions of americans love inbreeding, racism & rednecks!
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: TerryM on August 25, 2018, 04:23:56 AM
They aren't "real" Americans. They probably aren't cognizant of the proper pronunciation of "forte", the proper use of the salad fork, or the second stanza of the Whiffenpoof song.
Bah, Bah indeed.


Deplorable, Despicable, Disgusting and Declasse - Oh, however do we get that little tic above the E, it looks so - bare without it.
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: jacksmith4tx on August 25, 2018, 04:47:57 AM
Quote
August 23, 2018 06:22 AM

SOMMERVILLE, MASS.

By the time of November’s election, Democratic candidates and liberal groups will have raised an astounding $1.5 billion in online contributions alone. And nearly every cent of it will arrive first in a mostly empty basement, where a printer the size of a carry-on suitcase processes checks next to a solitary cardboard cutout of former President Bill Clinton.

This is ActBlue, the not-for-profit group that has become a ubiquitous presence in Democratic politics, providing an online fundraising platform for just about every entity inside the party. If you’ve ever donated to one of the party’s candidates, or one of the recently formed grassroots progressive “pop-up” groups, you probably used ActBlue.

Few groups, then, have a better view of how a surge of relatively small, online contributions is reshaping the party’s priorities and campaigns — or how they are poised to upend the upcoming Democratic presidential primary.

“It’s an extraordinary time in politics,” said Matt DeBergalis, ActBlue’s co-founder who now serves as its chairman of the board. “I’m proud that we’re part of it. I’m proud we’ve built what we have, and frankly, I think we have a lot of work to do.”
https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/article217164250.html

The top 1% of society and Wall St. do not use ActBlue to funnel their bribes to Washington. They count the votes.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: TerryM on August 25, 2018, 06:40:00 AM
Jack
1.5$B is an impressive war chest, especially when it's use requires no pledges of fealty to any of yesterdays big money donors.
Very good news for the progressive candidates that have traditionally been starved out of contention. Very bad news for Democrats who have prostituted themselves while attempting to get a foot on the rung leading up to easy street.


Is the DNC's acceptance of fossil fuel money getting any traction in the MSM? The potential for backlash against Corporate Democrats is large, but the message needs feet, and few that have a large readership/viewership have any motive to spread it.
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on August 26, 2018, 09:09:09 AM
America's Finest News Source:

"GOP leadership released a statement Friday calling for Congressman Duncan Hunter’s resignation following the revelation that he is, in fact, poor."

“This gross lack of personal finances does not represent the Grand Old Party writ large. That Duncan Hunter held actual middle-class status for years, instead of merely pretending to share middle-class values, is absolutely reprehensible behavior unbefitting a Republican congressman.”

https://politics.theonion.com/gop-leaders-demand-congressman-duncan-hunter-s-resignat-1828583936

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: mostly_lurking on August 26, 2018, 11:48:11 AM
Republicans Rejoice!

Hillary Clinton To Headline Democratic Fundraisers to boost the Party's chances in November


Hey, there is some advantage to her doing fundraisers... don't need very big venues- so cheap!
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: mostly_lurking on August 26, 2018, 12:19:08 PM
Interesting.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2562

Quote
American voters say 48 - 41 percent that the Democratic Party best represents their values. Looking at which party can better handle key issues, voters say:
49 - 41 percent that the Republicans can do a better job on the economy;
47 - 41 percent that the Republicans can do a better job on taxes;

53 - 36 percent that the Democrats can do better on health care;
50 - 40 percent that the Democrats can do better on immigration;
55 - 31 percent that the Democrats can do better on race relations;
44 - 44 percent split on which party can do better on gun policy;
46 percent that the Democrats can do better on foreign policy, with 43 percent for Republicans;
48 - 40 percent that the Republicans can do better on national security;
39 - 34 percent that the Democrats can do better handling government corruption.



So in the end it depends what people think are the more important issues. Different polls give different answers.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: gerontocrat on August 29, 2018, 01:34:48 PM
What's truly weird is why the liberal progressive left parties cannot ever mount a reasonable case during a campaign that they are as good if not better than the others on national security, the economy and taxes as opposed to being 24/7 Bleeding Hearts and Dog Lovers and crying copious tears it's all Trump's fault - he's to blame - he's a liar, a cheat, a traitor, a psychopath - and it's just not fair!
And the data is there to show:-
- most of the personal tax cuts went to the 1%,
- most  of the Corporation tax cuts have gone into dividends, share buy-backs and management buy backs.
- a good many corporations have used the modest tax cuts to their workers to justify not giving wage increases,
- putting the boot into renewable energy costs jobs,
- getting rid of Obamacare means for many that the 1st Law of 3rd World Medicine now applies "Don't get sick".

Some dead simple stuff on economic and social policy based on simple easily understood data is all that is needed, but blah blah rules, OK.

Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: TerryM on August 30, 2018, 11:18:05 PM
Lurk
Your Maher clip with Brennan is one of the most bizarre examples of rewriting recent history I'd ever experienced. The mindless hoots of the crowd could have been dubbed from Planet of the Apes, Brennan and Maher's script could have been lifted from 1984 (the book, not the movie), and Brennan's pleas to keep politics out of the CIA would have worked well as a Monty Python bit.


It would be hilarious if the message wasn't to promote a coup, a civil war, and the nuclear apocalypse.
The mindless cheering from the maddened crowd will stay with me long after Mayer and Brennan's memories have faded. This is what a few generations of raising toddlers on Sesame Street has lead to.
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: magnamentis on August 30, 2018, 11:50:22 PM
Lurk
Your Maher clip with Brennan is one of the most bizarre examples of rewriting recent history I'd ever experienced. The mindless hoots of the crowd could have been dubbed from Planet of the Apes, Brennan and Maher's script could have been lifted from 1984 (the book, not the movie), and Brennan's pleas to keep politics out of the CIA would have worked well as a Monty Python bit.


It would be hilarious if the message wasn't to promote a coup, a civil war, and the nuclear apocalypse.
The mindless cheering from the maddened crowd will stay with me long after Mayer and Brennan's memories have faded. This is what a few generations of raising toddlers on Sesame Street has lead to.
Terry

you have no clue how much a love (agree to) what you're saying, if we only could put a few thousand lines with such eye-opening stuff and digest it as fast as that. this is an almost endless story and at times i simply have switch off for not getting mad.

whenever i'm invited or attend an event where that kind of cheering and brainwashing stuff occurs, no matter with whom and what, i stand up and run. at best without comment, sometimes with an outcry ;)
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on September 06, 2018, 09:17:09 PM
Norht Carolina redistricting posponed. republican gerrymander to remain unti after election.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/04/north-carolina-redistricting-midterms-807155

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Martin Gisser on September 10, 2018, 11:22:46 PM
So I watched some Jimmy Dore... until his first factual glitch.
Yes, Dore is a Trumputin propagandist.

Dore: "Bloomberg, who instituted stop-and-frisk in New York"
Bullshit. While Bloomberg defended it, this is much older. More blame could be laid on Rudy Giuliani. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stop-and-frisk_in_New_York_City

Republicans Rejoice!

Hillary Clinton To Headline Democratic Fundraisers to boost the Party's chances in November

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LAXcddeXSs8
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Martin Gisser on September 11, 2018, 01:45:49 PM
Yes, Dore is a Trumputin propagandist.
Maybe it's not obvious enough for some, so let me explain:

Like in 2016 the Trumputin strategy is to make D voters stay home, by bombarding them with bullshit about how bad the D party is and that there's no real difference to the R T party.

And this strategy works very well, as we can even see on the polit threads here: Many "progressives" enthusiastically absorb any negative point (true or not) about the D party.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Martin Gisser on September 11, 2018, 02:30:36 PM
That's hard to do given the insulting things you say about others.
You should read your own stuff some time, troll. Your constant projection is almost funny. Back to ignoring you.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 11, 2018, 03:27:20 PM
An interesting survey was conducted recently.  This was in response to a poll last year that found that 40% of each party membership is solely due to opposition to the other party, as opposed to support for their own party.  Ironically, many of the views held by these party members about the opposition are dead wrong. 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-are-wrong-about-republicans-republicans-are-wrong-about-democrats/

While those Independent Trump voters have definitely soured on him, there is no particular love for the Democratic party either.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-millennials/exclusive-democrats-lose-ground-with-millennials-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1I10YH

This environment would seem ripe for the emergence of a new political party. 
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: gerontocrat on September 11, 2018, 04:18:30 PM
Once again a thread is dominated by two people who should know better.

I think I will get my USA election news and opinion from everywhere and anywhere but here. (Sorry, Klondike Kat - I like your stuff but...)

"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 11, 2018, 06:39:50 PM

I think I will get my USA election news and opinion from everywhere and anywhere but here.

Probably a good idea.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on September 11, 2018, 09:44:43 PM
I posted this article in another thread, but a passage in the article applies here also: Democrats cannot win without the heartland. But more and more they ignore their voters in the heartlands.

--
 Too often, talk about left-behind regions is met by eye-rolling from cosmopolitans who view it as yet another attempt to summon sympathy for woebegone Trump voters. But this betrays a misreading of who lives in these struggling cities. Yes, they’re home to white working-class Obama-Trump voters. They’re also each home to tens of thousands of African-Americans, many of whom voted for Hillary Clinton, and many others of whom stayed home, seeing nothing on offer to address their plight. (Dayton proper is 40 percent black.) It was the combination of these voting blocs that explained Clinton’s losses in Midwestern states—not just voters turning to Trump, but Democrats in Milwaukee and Detroit and Cleveland who stayed home or voted third party.

Nan Whaley, the mayor of Dayton, joked darkly in a recent interview with me about how it took the 2016 election to draw notice to the plight of Middle America. “I mean, like look, I think the coastals need to pay attention to this because we can destroy elections,” she said. “You know, that’s what we can do, and I mean, then we get your attention.”

--

https://www.truthdig.com/articles/the-chasm-among-american-cities-is-growing-ever-wider/

sidd

Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 11, 2018, 10:12:04 PM

I think I will get my USA election news and opinion from everywhere and anywhere but here.

Probably a good idea.

Testing syntax
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on September 12, 2018, 11:44:09 PM
Glen Ford over at the Black Agenda Report rejects both wings of the bird of prey:

" fascism is “mainstream” politics in the United States ...the warmongering, Russian stooge-hunting, neo-McCarthyite, corporate Democratic “Resistance” and the race-mongering, Dixiecrat-Republican, law and order-loving (but also white mob rule-friendly) troglodytes aligned with Donald Trump.  "

"Both are American exceptionalist -- another term for imperialist -- and both are thoroughly capitalist"

" Blacks, immigrants, Muslims and others are all invited to join the corporate Democrat “Resistance” to Trump ...  the devil’s bargain demands that we must accept austerity and war"

"The corporate fascists are just as phony as Trump. Their race “neutrality” means only that they have no problem with Black presidents and Black generals that wage racist wars against people of color; or with Black heads of Homeland Security that pursue the imprisonment of “Black Identity Extremists”; or with Black politicians overseeing their sectors of the Mass Black Incarceration Gulag.

What separates Trump’s old school cracker fascism from the smoother, Democrat corporate version, is that the Clinton-Pelosi fascists invite Black people to fully participate in their own destruction -- and to feel honored at the invitation."

"Two fascisms offer even less choice than one."

https://blackagendareport.com/911-legacy-two-contending-fascisms

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on September 13, 2018, 12:36:22 AM
Tim Ryan looks set in the Mahoning vally. No real surprise there, he is a democrat who gets Trump voters to vote for him.

"That means roughly 45,000 of Ryan’s supporters in 2016 were Ryan-Trump voters."

" “We are all for the ‘fight for 15,’ but my people were making $40 an hour, and now they’re making $15,” Ryan says. “We need to be a party saying, ‘We are not going to be happy until we get those $30, $40, $50 an hour jobs back for working-class people.” "

And he doesn't like Pelosi.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/09/09/tim-ryan-2020-presidential-candidate-yoga-beer-mindfulness-interview-profile-219738

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on September 17, 2018, 09:21:37 PM
News from Ohio: Sherrod Brown cruising to reelection, Cordray and Dewine in knifefight for governor:

"Trump won 17 of the Ohio counties that Brown won in his last campaign, which Renacci’s team cites as evidence of Brown’s vulnerability to a Trump-backed challenge. But Brown’s team cites that same statistic as evidence of his appeal to Trump voters. Rich Rankin, the top United Auto Workers official in Ohio, told me he recently saw 15 high school friends for their fantasy football draft, and while 11 of them supported Trump, all 15 support Brown."

Trump voters will vote for democrats but they have to be the right democrats.

" labor provides the party’s organizational muscle, and Democrats can’t win here unless union members come home."

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/09/17/ohio-2018-elections-senior-citizens-sherrod-brown-dewine-cordray-219914

Meanwhile in NJ, Menendez in a close one for senate reelection, even democrats think he's a crook:

https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2018/09/16/bob-menendezs-political-fight-for-survival-609491

I went thru NJ a few times a month ago, as a friend of mine put it: "Hell, I vote democrat, and I dunno if i can hold my nose and vote for him. With democrats like these, who needs republicans."

https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2018/09/16/bob-menendezs-political-fight-for-survival-609491

sidd

Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on September 18, 2018, 07:48:49 AM
Obama came out for Cordray against Dewine in ohio governor election.

https://apnews.com/744d967512fd4b71992ec07483d128e7

Might have been a bad move. Cordray is better than Dewine for ohio, but a lot of people in ohio dont like obama. Lost their houses, wound up on the street. Got no help and the bankers didn't go to jail during obama years.

Cordray knows that, was upfront and personal with the CFPB, got no help from obama. But he can't say that.

Obama showin up don't play well outside upscale Cleveland and Columbus. And as we saw, they don't have enuf voters to count.

Stay away, obama, Cordray's got a shot if you don't screw it up.

Now the next bad thing obama could do is come by for Sherrod for senate. Sherrod's got it in the bag, but obama might screw it up for him too.

sidd


Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on September 19, 2018, 11:15:19 PM
Apparently more NJ dems are of my friends opinion: can't hold my nose and vote the party line no more

"A Democratic Brick Township council member broke ranks Monday to endorse a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, amid a close race that has placed a once sure-fire – but scandal-ridden – candidate up against a GOP newcomer.

Councilman James Fozman appeared Monday with Bob Hugin, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, at Mantoloking Bridge County Park in Brick to endorse Hugin over Democratic rival U.S. Sen. Bob Mendendez."

"Bob Hugin’s support continues to grow and extend across party lines as Teddy Price, Democrat Freeholder Candidate and President of the Toms River Democrats, endorsed his Republican campaign for U.S. Senate ..."

"Bob Hugin today announced his fourth endorsement by a New Jersey Democrat, Branchville Mayor Tony Frato."

https://bobhugin.com/another-democrat-endorses-hugin/

http://brick.shorebeat.com/2018/08/brick-councilman-breaks-party-lines-endorses-gop-senate-candidate-hasnt-ruled-out-switching-parties/

https://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/09/14/yet-another-democrat-endorses-gop-challenger-to-menendez-in-nj-senate-race/

https://bobhugin.com/democratic-mayor-endorses-hugin/

I guess Menendez is just too much of a crook.

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: TerryM on September 20, 2018, 01:32:08 AM
Nah
He may be a crook, but he's our crook.

The Democrats for all of their problems have never been seen as "Deplorables", crooks perhaps, con men maybe, but never Deplorables.

With this fact in mind Joe Biden has reached across party lines to seek votes for his fellow party members. Not wishing to repeat Hillary's vote losing mistake of labeling her opposition as Deplorables, Joe now describes Trump supporters as "The Dregs of Society".

Calling prospective voters "The Dregs of Society" should silence them. Who would knowingly subject himself to exposure as a Dreg?

Unlike the Deplorables who came out in force and drove poor Hillary from her rightful victory, Joe's Dregs will sit out the coming election cycle in darkened rooms ensconced on sagging couches. Watching Fox News and Roller Derby Re-Runs as they contemplate through beer tainted tears the error of their ways & the wreckage of their lives.

Thank god for America. Thank god for the DNC. And especially thank god for leaders like Hillary and Joe. Leaders that can look past petty party politics and that can find names for the deplorable dregs whose votes they require.
/sarc

http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/former-vice-president-joe-biden-trump-supporters-are-the-dregs-of-society_09172018 (http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/former-vice-president-joe-biden-trump-supporters-are-the-dregs-of-society_09172018)
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 20, 2018, 01:37:31 PM
I find it hard to believe that so many would vote for a crook, just because he is our crook.  At some point, even the most die-hard will throw in the towel.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: oren on September 22, 2018, 08:18:31 AM
I find it hard to believe that so many would vote for a crook, just because he is our crook.  At some point, even the most die-hard will throw in the towel.
Evidence in Israel says this can go on for a very long time.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on October 05, 2018, 06:49:24 AM
This article could go in several threads, but it has some important lessons from 2016, drawn from the black community in Milwaukee, Wisconsin 2016.

" the predominantly black neighborhoods surrounding it currently have the highest rate of incarcerated black men in the country"

" the uncomfortable fact remains that black voter turnout in 2016 was down in over half the country"

“ We had Baltimore, we had Charlotte, we had Milwaukee. I wonder—how does that factor into a community’s confidence in having an African American president, if during the tenure when we had [one] we’ve seen some of the most atrocious murders by police officers of unarmed black men? We’ve seen the decline in African American wealth.”

“Did we lose confidence in the power or the ability of getting things done by a President? Were we coming off of a hangover or fatigue? Do we still have confidence in democracy at all?”

"The city of Milwaukee, where almost 90% of the region’s black males live, has lost over three-quarters of its industrial jobs since the 1960s. In metro Milwaukee, all of the region’s net job growth since the 1980s has occurred in the suburbs, where few working-age black males live due to past and present housing segregation, and where transportation links between the central city and suburban jobs are poor "

"There ain’t no such thing as Democrat and Republican"

" the widespread messaging was that people of color simply had too much to lose with a Trump presidency ...  But many of them felt that they already lost."

"A growing number of black people and black women in particular appear not only to have lost faith in the electoral process in 2016, but to be losing faith in the two major political parties. "

" some liberals are poised to cling to the Clintons’ triangulation playbook and abandon meaningful economic appeals to black constituents."

"the Democratic Party just takes us for granted that we’re going to vote for them. The Republicans attempt to just peel us off and disenfranchise us. In order for us to be taken seriously as constituents, I think we have to start a ticket and articulate our demands ourselves. "

Read the whole thing:

https://www.currentaffairs.org/2018/10/the-color-of-economic-anxiety

sidd



Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on October 09, 2018, 09:14:18 AM
Surge in Texas voter registrations:

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/texas/article/Texas-sets-voter-registration-record-with-1-6-13258057.php

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 09, 2018, 10:23:25 AM
Since beginning of October-  12 races move towards GOP   2 move towards DEM.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map_race_changes.html

Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 09, 2018, 01:16:25 PM
Since beginning of October-  12 races move towards GOP   2 move towards DEM.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map_race_changes.html

Yes, the initial bump that the Democrats got during the Kavanaugh confirmation process seems to have evaporated after the Senate testimony and FBI investigation.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: TerryM on October 09, 2018, 04:40:23 PM
538 shows the independents breaking for the Republicans, at least since since Ford's claims of being groped 35 or 36 years ago were raised.


A very flawed candidate for the Supreme Court's nomination was decided not by examining and questioning his decisions as an adult, but rather by attempting to raise questions about his interactions with girls when he was still too young to vote.


The good Senator's votes broke mainly along party lines, but the undecided, independent voters seem to have favored Kavanaugh's defenders by a wide margin.
Both camps gained followers, but for every 2 undecideds that went to the Democrats, 9 told pollsters they now supported Republicans.


Did they all think Ford lied under oath? I doubt it.


I think some remembered instances where they had been accused with little or no compelling evidence.
I think some believed that their own "coming of age" histories wouldn't stand too much exposure.
I think some felt that Kavanaugh, if guilty, had obviously learned, since no one was questioning his actions as an adult.
I think some doubted that his accusers had spotless records.
I think that many assumed that Kavanaugh's judicial record must be "OK" or they wouldn't have had to go this far back to find something that he'd done wrong.


The Kavanaugh kerfuffle has shown Trump's Republicans as winners, and Democrats as sore losers.
One month to go.
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: ritter on October 09, 2018, 06:59:39 PM
538 shows the independents breaking for the Republicans, at least since since Ford's claims of being groped 35 or 36 years ago were raised.


A very flawed candidate for the Supreme Court's nomination was decided not by examining and questioning his decisions as an adult, but rather by attempting to raise questions about his interactions with girls when he was still too young to vote.


The good Senator's votes broke mainly along party lines, but the undecided, independent voters seem to have favored Kavanaugh's defenders by a wide margin.
Both camps gained followers, but for every 2 undecideds that went to the Democrats, 9 told pollsters they now supported Republicans.


Did they all think Ford lied under oath? I doubt it.


I think some remembered instances where they had been accused with little or no compelling evidence.
I think some believed that their own "coming of age" histories wouldn't stand too much exposure.
I think some felt that Kavanaugh, if guilty, had obviously learned, since no one was questioning his actions as an adult.
I think some doubted that his accusers had spotless records.
I think that many assumed that Kavanaugh's judicial record must be "OK" or they wouldn't have had to go this far back to find something that he'd done wrong.


The Kavanaugh kerfuffle has shown Trump's Republicans as winners, and Democrats as sore losers.
One month to go.
Terry

Terry,

I think similar inability/disinterest to look at such nuances is what led to the assurances that Clinton was going to win. Nobody was paying attention to the people in the middle that were simply sick of the same old shit. Trump was a protest vote for many. I expect similar folk will vote to protest the Dems antics in the Kavanaugh hearing. Issues? What issues? We've got scandal, man!
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: colchonero on October 10, 2018, 04:20:11 PM
NYT poll (still ongoing) seems to be neck on neck, Cruz has between 5-9% lead, while Tennessee Republicans seem like they are waking up from winter (summer) sleep

ABC 15  AZ Senate poll that came out today, has McSally at 47% and Sinema at 41%.  Senator Whitehouse has 20+ points lead (as of latest poll) in RI Senate race.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 10, 2018, 05:14:23 PM
NYT poll (still ongoing) seems to be neck on neck, Cruz has between 5-9% lead, while Tennessee Republicans seem like they are waking up from winter (summer) sleep

ABC 15  AZ Senate poll that came out today, has McSally at 47% and Sinema at 41%.  Senator Whitehouse has 20+ points lead (as of latest poll) in RI Senate race.

Yes, every poll taken in Texas since the start of summer has shown Cruze with a single digit lead. Not huge, but significant.  Recent poll have shown an average lead of 6%.

The Tennessee polls taken in August and September (4 total)  showed the race a dead heat.  The two taken in October give Blackburn a 5-8% lead.

In Arizona, I am sure how much to trust that poll.  This is the only race it has polled, so it does not have a track record.  All the other polls show Sinema with a 3% lead.  Still, this is McCain and Flake territory, and both were popular GOP Senators. 


Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 11, 2018, 04:22:56 PM
One more moves towards the GOP.
Seems Dem's stuck at 205 while GOP drips upwards.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 11, 2018, 07:07:46 PM
One more moves towards the GOP.
Seems Dem's stuck at 205 while GOP drips upwards.

Interestingly, the Dems biggest lead was 206-191 on Sept. 14.  This was the same day that the Ford allegations against Kavanaugh were made public. 
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: TerryM on October 11, 2018, 09:50:17 PM
One more moves towards the GOP.
Seems Dem's stuck at 205 while GOP drips upwards.

Interestingly, the Dems biggest lead was 206-191 on Sept. 14.  This was the same day that the Ford allegations against Kavanaugh were made public.
By Sept. 12 the Intercept was writing about a letter Feinstein was sharing that related to "an incident that involved Kavanaugh and a woman while they were in high school". Also mentioned was "Debra Katz, who works with #MetToo Survivors".

Although Ford's name wasn't released until the 14th, the direction that the hearing as headed in was clear on the 12th.
https://theintercept.com/2018/09/12/brett-kavanaugh-confirmation-dianne-feinstein/
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: TerryM on October 12, 2018, 04:48:42 AM
Apparently the Kentucky Democratic candidate for the Senate was fibbing about his support for Kavanaugh.
The supposed support alienated some of his volunteers, then he alienated more by saying the support was only designed to aid in his election.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-11/veritas-undercover-tennessee-democrat-lied-about-kavanaugh-support-pander-votes

Sounds as though the Republicans win this seat.
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 12, 2018, 08:06:14 AM
Apparently the Kentucky Democratic candidate for the Senate was fibbing about his support for Kavanaugh.
The supposed support alienated some of his volunteers, then he alienated more by saying the support was only designed to aid in his election.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-11/veritas-undercover-tennessee-democrat-lied-about-kavanaugh-support-pander-votes

Sounds as though the Republicans win this seat.
Terry

Tennessee, not Kentucky  :)   
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 12, 2018, 08:08:29 AM
One more moves towards the GOP.
Seems Dem's stuck at 205 while GOP drips upwards.

Interestingly, the Dems biggest lead was 206-191 on Sept. 14.  This was the same day that the Ford allegations against Kavanaugh were made public.



Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 12, 2018, 01:43:02 PM
Apparently the Kentucky Democratic candidate for the Senate was fibbing about his support for Kavanaugh.
The supposed support alienated some of his volunteers, then he alienated more by saying the support was only designed to aid in his election.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-11/veritas-undercover-tennessee-democrat-lied-about-kavanaugh-support-pander-votes

Sounds as though the Republicans win this seat.
Terry

Tennessee, not Kentucky  :)

Yes, it is not looking good for Bredeson.  This is the trend in the last four polls:

9/15    CNN   Bredeson      +5
10/2    FOX   Blackburn     +5
10/5    CBS   Blackburn     +8
10/11  NYT    Blackburn   +14
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: TerryM on October 12, 2018, 06:12:49 PM
Apparently the Kentucky Democratic candidate for the Senate was fibbing about his support for Kavanaugh.
The supposed support alienated some of his volunteers, then he alienated more by saying the support was only designed to aid in his election.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-11/veritas-undercover-tennessee-democrat-lied-about-kavanaugh-support-pander-votes (https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-11/veritas-undercover-tennessee-democrat-lied-about-kavanaugh-support-pander-votes)

Sounds as though the Republicans win this seat.
Terry

Tennessee, not Kentucky  :)


My Bad!
Thanks for keeping me honest.
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on October 12, 2018, 07:28:15 PM
America's Finest News Source on outdated methods of vote suppression:

"many states were still relying on outdated methods to disenfranchise their voters"

"many of these antiquated methods were rife for human error and could result in thousands of minorities being allowed to vote."

https://politics.theonion.com/report-many-states-still-relying-on-outdated-methods-t-1829711550

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on October 13, 2018, 01:19:22 AM
Democrats abandon rural/labour consituencies in favour of cities: Wilson at the Hill on Minnesota

"The Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, some worry, is losing the farmer and the laborer."

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/411172-how-americas-urban-rural-divide-is-changing-the-democratic-party

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 13, 2018, 03:22:29 PM
Democrats abandon rural/labour consituencies in favour of cities: Wilson at the Hill on Minnesota

"The Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, some worry, is losing the farmer and the laborer."

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/411172-how-americas-urban-rural-divide-is-changing-the-democratic-party

sidd

The Democratic Party has been losing the rural farm vote for almost a century now.  This started with the New Deal, which promoted large industrialized farms at the expense of the small farmer.  These policies expanded after WWII, further alienating the small farmer from government.  One of the biggest programs pushing out the small farmer was the 1960s farm bills, which supplied direct payments to large farms in order to lower food prices.  Then came the farm crisis of the 80s.  Comparing the elections of 1916 and 2016, the Democrats won 30 states (mostly south and west) and 277 EVs, while the Republican won only 18 states (mostly north and east) and 254 EVs.  Imaging the Democrats today winning rural WY, OK, or MS, and the GOP winning urban NY, IL, and MA!
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: SteveMDFP on October 14, 2018, 12:11:26 AM
Democrats abandon rural/labour consituencies in favour of cities: Wilson at the Hill on Minnesota

"The Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, some worry, is losing the farmer and the laborer."

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/411172-how-americas-urban-rural-divide-is-changing-the-democratic-party

sidd

The Democratic Party has been losing the rural farm vote for almost a century now.  This started with the New Deal, which promoted large industrialized farms at the expense of the small farmer.  These policies expanded after WWII, further alienating the small farmer from government.  One of the biggest programs pushing out the small farmer was the 1960s farm bills, which supplied direct payments to large farms in order to lower food prices.  Then came the farm crisis of the 80s.  Comparing the elections of 1916 and 2016, the Democrats won 30 states (mostly south and west) and 277 EVs, while the Republican won only 18 states (mostly north and east) and 254 EVs.  Imaging the Democrats today winning rural WY, OK, or MS, and the GOP winning urban NY, IL, and MA!

I quite agree that the Democratic Party tends to overlook a natural constituency by not appealing to rural communities.  But rural people overall are not all about farming.  That's an occupation for a minority of rural workers:

Beyond the Farm: Rural Industry Workers in America
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/12/beyond_the_farm_rur.html (https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/12/beyond_the_farm_rur.html)

Affordable high-speed internet access might be a high priority for these people.  Availability of first-responder services might be another.  General health care services another.  Transportation needs are big.  How do we wean rural folks from petrol-powered cars in a way that works for them?  There won't be many super-chargers for EVs unless policies are put into place to subsidize/require charging stations.

These are complex issues.  Time to think seriously about them.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 14, 2018, 08:08:21 AM
Saturday update:  Dem still at 205 and another bump up for GOP to 201.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 14, 2018, 05:49:56 PM
Saturday update:  Dem still at 205 and another bump up for GOP to 201.

Yes, the Senate is almost a foregone conclusion.  The GOP could also gain a seat or two.  The House is still up for grabs, and could go either way.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on October 14, 2018, 08:54:32 PM
Scholten runs an old school campaign to unseat rabidly right wing republican in Iowa:

"Scholten has a 39-county strategy"

 “Democrats have to get back to that model of showing up and listening and letting people know you care,”

 "Scholten considers local news some of the last trusted sources remaining; his ad strategy includes print, TV, but also radio, which farmers listen to in the fields."

“He’s using rural newspapers in a way I haven’t seen from a congressional candidate in my career,”

Show them how, Scholten.

https://theintercept.com/2018/10/13/jd-scholten-monopolies-not-immigrants-steve-king/

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on October 16, 2018, 06:27:55 AM
Health care. It's what voters care about:

--

Brown blames Congress. Both parties.“They should have exactly what we have” for care, she suggested. “They’re servants of the people. Isn’t that what they say?”

Her three-month supply of eye drops used to be $200. Now it’s $700 for two months. “What can you cut?” Brenenborg said. “You can’t cut your utilities. You can’t cut your house payments.”

“They’ll only take half a pill, or they’ll skip a day—that’s real common,” she said. “I’m fearful of where it’s going. Where does it stop?”

Rickert, meanwhile, was out of work for six months last year because of a rib she fractured on the job and then pneumonia and other ensuing complications—and she lost her health insurance because of it, she said. She recently started with a new company, still as a nurse, mainly to get more affordable health care. It’s been disillusioning. “There’s no protection for people who get sick who are employed,” Rickert said. “Over time, it doesn’t matter. And medicine is a business. It’s not about people.”  ... Her daughter and health insurance on her mind ... “How can she afford it,” Rickert asked, “if I can hardly afford it?” "

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/10/15/pennsylvania-elections-2018-senior-citizens-health-care-221302

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: TerryM on October 17, 2018, 05:49:28 PM
Warren alienates Native Americans and may have ended her chances for a 2020 run for the Presidency.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/16/warren-dna-native-american-905705

I doubt that her opposition in the 2018 Senate race is in a position to take advantage.
Some wag opined that if she can be called "Native American", then a beef stew could be referred to as a "carrot". :)

Democrats need every minority vote.
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: mostly_lurking on October 17, 2018, 06:04:51 PM
Warren alienates Native Americans and may have ended her chances for a 2020 run for the Presidency.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/16/warren-dna-native-american-905705

I doubt that her opposition in the 2018 Senate race is in a position to take advantage.
Some wag opined that if she can be called "Native American", then a beef stew could be referred to as a "carrot". :)



Democrats need every minority vote.
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: ritter on October 17, 2018, 06:09:09 PM
As a whole, the Dem party is not very good at optics. I wish we'd move away from "how things look" and "we aren't Trump" and into "what we plan to do". Despite reality tv, I think a clear plan/path is more salable than what we've been doing...
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: TerryM on October 17, 2018, 06:15:56 PM
As a whole, the Dem party is not very good at optics. I wish we'd move away from "how things look" and "we aren't Trump" and into "what we plan to do". Despite reality tv, I think a clear plan/path is more salable than what we've been doing...
Ramen!


Less "Russia - Russia - Russia".
More "Healthcare, Education, Peace"


Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Neven on October 17, 2018, 06:35:31 PM
Trump vs Warren, the press can't lose and will happily kill those two birds with one stone, except that the fascist clownbird isn't hit. They will gladly take out Warren to remind everyone that we mustn't be too radical. And poor Warren, trying to keep everybody happy, the progressives, the corporatists...
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on October 17, 2018, 08:14:52 PM
Sherrod Brown is looking better ...

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on October 18, 2018, 12:14:35 AM
Stankorb on the little, lost forlorn places: sacrifice zones of late stage capitalism.

"My hometown no longer feels like home."

"They and their few remaining neighbors were cushioned by the happenstance of settling down when times were bad but not busted, a decade or two before bankers perfected the exploitation of the American dream."

"There have been rounds of drug busts. My mom emailed me when a previous neighbor was arrested for trafficking heroin. "

"they’ve finally knocked old Trumpie’s house"

"in 2016, for the first time in my life, the majority of people in my home county voted for a Republican candidate."

“Bob’s house might be next,”

" “The house next door didn’t sell,” ... Their former next-door neighbor, a man in his sixties who couldn’t earn enough as a Walmart greeter, has moved out. After the foreclosure, he squatted in the house for close to a year with the curtains drawn. "

"this one too might be demolished."

"Even if they can sell their house, it wouldn’t be enough for a down payment elsewhere. But they can’t stay in this big, aging house, full of stairs, my mom on a walker and my dad with his breathing. They manage, through the sheer force of my father’s will, his insistence on taking care of them both. But I see no other way to get them out. I’ve asked. They refuse."

"my people were Rust Belt people, I was told. Those words were supposed to encapsulate the decay, the abandoned workplaces, the rampant unemployment. We were seen by outsiders as wasted people, rotting with disuse."

"there was often nowhere else for them to go."

"my mother described the death of a neighbor, the mother of friends, who had stopped breathing. City revenue had fallen so much that the ambulances were outsourced from a nearby town, and the driver couldn’t find our street. She hadn’t been breathing for some time when they finally arrived.

I tried to imagine what it would be like to lose my mother to poverty—because that’s really what killed our neighbor—then realized the same thing could happen to my mother easily. I tried not to think about it.

When friends’ parents succumbed to preventable diseases, I never thought to blame poverty for the check-ups and scans they never had."

"A local injection well was dug incorrectly—that is, directly into a fault line—and over a year, in quiet northeast Ohio, there were a dozen earthquakes. Plaster in my parents’ walls buckled. Fissures tricked up the walls and became cracks. "

"I used to think the decline in my hometown was Rust Belt-specific, but now wonder how many neighborhoods in collapse it takes for a country to lose its sense of self. "

"I think of all the commentary on these poor, white neighborhoods ... become another caste we hypothesize about in generalizations, and my parents are trapped here."

" the Democrats have not learned what they should from those elusive, poor, white Trump voters"

"But tangled in with the overtly racist, anti-Muslim, anti-woman Trump supporters are the why should I still vote Democrat, nothing ever changes people whose poverty left them alienated enough they felt justified looking the other way about the rest. It was a vote, not full-fledged support. It wasn’t right. But sequestering them isn’t either—especially not for people like my parents who don’t agree with any of it but are just stuck. (Financial freedom gives people the power to choose their neighbors. Poverty does not.)

Much as we’ve spent generations trying to deny America’s inherent racism, we’ve also always been eager to forget the poor. Our classism is yet another original sin."

https://catapult.co/stories/fabric-of-community-gone-threadbare

sidd

Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on October 18, 2018, 05:12:53 AM
Health care on everyone's mind:

"Ms Daly tells me "nobody" she knows can afford healthcare anymore. "

"WVHR saw 21,000 patients before the ACA. After the law, that number dipped to 15,500, suggesting that fewer patients were in dire need - but that welcome news only lasted so long.

"Now we have 26,211 patients," says Mrs Angie Settle ... "

"The nurse practitioner says many of the insurance plans required patients to cover the first $5,000 to $10,000 of their costs.

"It might as well have been $5 million because these people are living paycheck to paycheck. It was totally beyond their reach," Mrs Settle says. "

"It'll basically boil down to one of two theories - healthcare is a fundamental right, or, healthcare is a marketplace."

"Donald Trump doesn't give a crap about me. Hillary Clinton didn't give a crap about me,"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45880506

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on October 23, 2018, 05:07:59 AM
Earlier in this thread i posted about a democratic candidate (Scholten)  using small town newspapers (yeah, they're still around)

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2385.msg176997.html#msg176997

Trump does the same:

"In October, Trump has done at least 10 local interviews ..."

" " ... they really treat us well,” Trump said, with his walk-off song, The Rolling Stones’ “You Can’t Always Get You Want,” still playing in the background. "

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/22/trump-local-media-925438

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Sleepy on October 25, 2018, 09:35:40 AM
As a whole, the Dem party is not very good at optics. I wish we'd move away from "how things look" and "we aren't Trump" and into "what we plan to do". Despite reality tv, I think a clear plan/path is more salable than what we've been doing...
Ramen!


Less "Russia - Russia - Russia".
>>More "Healthcare, Education, Peace"<<


Terry
Terry, your comment got me thinking about an 18 year old Swedish comedy sketch. English subtitling.

https://youtu.be/r0y9Nm62_JE
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on October 30, 2018, 12:31:48 AM
When elephants fight, the mice suffer: Adelson and Buffet tussle in Nevada over electricity, Adelson at 20 million Buffett twice as much. Best democracy money can buy.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/27/adelson-buffett-nevada-890190

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 30, 2018, 07:13:06 AM
Please make sure your vote is going to the correct person. On several states that republicans have previously won, the election is done by electronic means. This means tampering with the votes is possible in many ways way easier than inventing districts and filling the paper ballots by non-existent people. I'm not saying republicans cheat on this respect, it's just odd that people would vote such idiots.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 30, 2018, 07:35:09 PM
Please make sure your vote is going to the correct person. On several states that republicans have previously won, the election is done by electronic means. This means tampering with the votes is possible in many ways way easier than inventing districts and filling the paper ballots by non-existent people. I'm not saying republicans cheat on this respect, it's just odd that people would vote such idiots.

Better make sure your vote is counted correctly.  Many electronic machines are touch-sensitive; meaning that an errant finger may change your vote.  History has shown that these machines have changed Democratic votes to Republicans and Republican votes to Democrats.  The makers of the machines claim that it is in the calibration.  Seems rather dubious that a machine can be calibrated differently.  Perhaps it is just media reporting that Republican votes are switched in blue states and Democratic votes are switched in red states.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: DrTskoul on October 31, 2018, 12:20:56 AM
. Straight D as always...
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on November 01, 2018, 04:50:35 AM
There are important issues on the ballot other than election of individuals.

Rent control in California: "Landlords and developers have spent $45.5 million to defeat Proposition 10 while pro-Proposition 10 forces have spent almost $24 million ..."

"Blackstone Group, the world’s largest real estate management firm, has contributed $6,859,747 to defeat Proposition 10. Blackstone group after the 2008 economic crises bought 13,000 single-family homes in California turning them into rentals. When a tenant leaves now, Blackstone can now jack up rent for the new tenant as much as they want, extracting huge profit from the homes they own. Blackstone Group owns $119 billion in real estate assets."

https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/10/31/the-big-battle-over-rent-control/

And in Colorado fossil fuels mount a challenge:

"Amendment 74, a simple-sounding measure that would radically alter the state's constitution to give fossil fuel giants the power to sue state and local governments for imposing regulations that threaten their dirty profits."

"The fossil fuel industry's decision to dump millions of dollars into pushing Amendment 74 was sparked by the emergence of Proposition 112 ..."

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2018/10/31/dire-warnings-other-states-and-planet-big-oil-pushes-sneaky-nuclear-option-protect

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 01, 2018, 05:11:27 AM
And then there's of course the possibility the state laws prevent you from voting. https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ohio-must-allow-purged-voters-vote-court-rules/X8UVz9eyEul83STIVa0UCO/
 this sort of voter suppression is not done in a democracy, but the current republicans may want to end it (the democracy)

Some North Dakotan republicans want to block members of a native american tribe from voting. https://mobile.twitter.com/maddow/status/1057764048488538112
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 01, 2018, 02:52:56 PM
And then there's of course the possibility the state laws prevent you from voting. https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ohio-must-allow-purged-voters-vote-court-rules/X8UVz9eyEul83STIVa0UCO/
 this sort of voter suppression is not done in a democracy, but the current republicans may want to end it (the democracy)

I think you have this backwards; the Republicans want to continue the practice, while the Democrats want to end it.

Some North Dakotan republicans want to block members of a native american tribe from voting. https://mobile.twitter.com/maddow/status/1057764048488538112
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: SteveMDFP on November 01, 2018, 03:01:34 PM


I think you have this backwards; the Republicans want to continue the practice, while the Democrats want to end it.
 

If you mean the practice of purging voters from the rolls for not voting in 6 years, you're right.
Lots of people only vote in elections in which they have strong feelings about a candidate.
If they only want to vote every 8 or 10 years, why should that mean they should be disenfranchised?
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 01, 2018, 07:11:52 PM


I think you have this backwards; the Republicans want to continue the practice, while the Democrats want to end it.
 

If you mean the practice of purging voters from the rolls for not voting in 6 years, you're right.
Lots of people only vote in elections in which they have strong feelings about a candidate.
If they only want to vote every 8 or 10 years, why should that mean they should be disenfranchised?

It was the default method of purging those who died or moved away.  There is no other process to remove these voters.  In most states it is longer, usually 10 years (that covers two presidential elections).  We may need a better method to ensure voters are only registered in one precinct.  Many snowbirds are registered in both their summer and winter home.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: mostly_lurking on November 02, 2018, 10:48:32 AM
My Mid-Term Predictions

Lurk is back!  8)

I agree with your predictions although the house could go Dem by a couple seats.
Watching all these prediction of Dems gaining 40 seats and more is hilarious.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Neven on November 02, 2018, 11:58:24 AM
nor Pelsoi's BS on the late show. She was the motivating factor behind the numbers above.

My goodness (and poor, poor Colbert, although he is rich and famous now):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPRX1CkuBL8
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: mostly_lurking on November 02, 2018, 12:09:01 PM

There is nothing in the US political electoral system that I can find legitimate or reasonable. The most UNDEMOCRATIC 'western' nation on planet Earth bar none. It's a disgrace and 'the idiots' put up with it. There is no other word that suits better.

When the GOP wins they have no reason to change it since it benefits them usually and when the Dems win..well, it worked for them THAT TIME and it's too hot a potato to tackle.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 02, 2018, 05:19:13 PM
My Mid-Term Predictions

Lurk is back!  8)

I agree with your predictions although the house could go Dem by a couple seats.
Watching all these prediction of Dems gaining 40 seats and more is hilarious.

Yes, Dems could still win the majority. But "My Open Source Investigative Analysis" :) concludes today they are still "likely" 5 seats off the mark -- not 30+ ahead.

I don't believe the hype, the media reports, nate silver's pitches or RCP averages, nor Pelsoi's BS on the late show. She was the motivating factor behind the numbers above.

btw Rick Scott (R) should win Florida in a canter, imho.

PS did you know that in CA they have combined Primaries, where every candidate every party have to compete against each other? Only the top two Primary vote getters then go on the Ballot for their particular District seat. So many Districts are given the amazing choice between voting for a Democrat or voting for a Democrat - no one else is on the ticket.

There is nothing in the US political electoral system that I can find legitimate or reasonable. The most UNDEMOCRATIC 'western' nation on planet Earth bar none. It's a disgrace and 'the idiots' put up with it. There is no other word that suits better.

I tend to agree.  The same pundits who predicted Clinton would win with 300+ EVs are back predicting a 40+ seat Democratic gain in the House.  While this is certainly possible, it appears to be on the far edge of probability.  We will see if they are over polling Democratic support.

Currently, there are 193 Democrats in the House.  RCP has its current projection at 203 Ds, 196 Rs and 36 races that are tossups, for a Democratic gain of 10 seats.  The democrats would need to win 30 of those 36 tossup races to reach a 40-seat gain, many of which have incumbent Republicans.  Of the races characterized as tossups, they are almost evenly split between a slight D polling advantage, slight R polling advantage, or no advantage.  Baring a major demographic shift between now and Tuesday, I would say the likely range is between either party winning between 12 and 24 of the tossup races.  Hence the House would range between 227-208 Democratic advantage to 220-215 Republican advantage. 

The Senate will range between 50:50 and 54-46 Republican advantage.  RCP currently projects 50 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 6 tossup races.  The Democrats need a clean sweep of the tossup races just to get even in the Senate, which is possible.  Unless the GOP can unseat Tester and Donnelly, I think 54 is their max.  A blue wave?  More likely a small wave, if they perform well; a blue ripple, if not.  Certainly not the tsunami that many had been hoping for earlier.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Neven on November 02, 2018, 05:28:20 PM
The Senate will range between 50:50 and 54-46 Republican advantage.  RCP currently projects 50 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 6 tossup races.  The Democrats need a clean sweep of the tossup races just to get even in the Senate, which is possible.  Unless the GOP can unseat Tester and Donnelly, I think 54 is their max.  A blue wave?  More likely a small wave, if they perform well; a blue ripple, if not.  Certainly not the tsunami that many had been hoping for earlier.

Just the way the donors want it.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 02, 2018, 06:04:53 PM
Quote
RCP has its current projection at 203 Ds, 196 Rs and 36 races that are tossups
Some who look to past elections to gain insights into the current one claim that 'tossup' seats usually swing largely one way or the other and are seldom split about even.  Plus, frequently, 2 or 3 seats deemed 'fairly safe' flip.  With this input, I suggest the US House of Representatives will, come January 3, have (all approximations) either 210 or 235 Democrats (with either 225 or 200 Republicans), or a shift of either 17 (±5) or 42 (±5) seats.  Maybe the Ds take over chairmanships, or maybe not!
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 05, 2018, 04:18:57 PM
What do I see coming Tuesday?  I see the GOP gaining in the Senate.  This was an uphill battle from the start for the Democrats, an it appears they will fall short.  The House is more interesting.  It could go any number of ways.  I think the media has over-hyped the blue wave, but it could still materialize.  The Democrats will definitely gain the seats.  The only question is how many.  My guess is they take barely enough to regain a House majority.  This would make legislating interesting, as such an even breakdown requires bi-partisan support to function (not that Congress ever functions reasonably).
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on November 05, 2018, 11:26:25 PM
Chris Hedges at truthdig on voting for scum:

"Scum versus scum. That sums up this election season. Is it any wonder that 100 million Americans don’t bother to vote?"

"The securities and finance industry has backed Democratic congressional candidates 63 percent to 37 percent over Republicans, according to data collected by the Center for Responsive Politics. Democratic candidates and political action committees have received $56.8 million, compared with Republicans’ $33.4 million, the center reported. The broader sector of finance, insurance and real estate, it found, has given $174 million to Democratic candidates, against $157 million to Republicans. And Michael Bloomberg, weighing his own presidential run, has pledged $100 million to elect a Democratic Congress."

"[Democrats] core battle cry is: We are not Trump! This is ultimately a losing formula. "

"You cannot use the word “liberty” when your government, as ours does, watches you 24 hours a day and stores all of your personal information in government computers in perpetuity. You cannot use the word “liberty” when you are the most photographed and monitored population in human history. You cannot use the word “liberty” when it is impossible to vote against the interests of Goldman Sachs or General Dynamics. You cannot use the word “liberty” when the state empowers militarized police to use indiscriminate lethal force against unarmed citizens in the streets of American cities. You cannot use the word “liberty” when 2.3 million citizens, mostly poor people of color, are held in the largest prison system on earth. This is the relationship between a master and a slave. The choice is between whom we want to clamp on our chains—a jailer who mouths politically correct bromides or a racist, Christian fascist. Either way we are shackled."

https://www.truthdig.com/articles/scum-vs-scum/

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on November 05, 2018, 11:33:59 PM
Laursen at counterpunch presents a case for abstention:

"non-voters have been sending an increasingly loud and consistent message for at least 50 years now: we’ve lost our faith in electoral democracy. "

"a deep disillusionment that’s been growing for decades with an electoral democracy that becomes less democratic all the time, a sclerotic and highly institutionalized two-party system"

"Voting affirms the present system. It signifies our assent ... It maneuvers potentially revolutionary social movements into unthreatening political channels (the best decision Black Lives Matter ever made was to not endorse candidates). It nudges us to blame specific policies and politicians, rather than take a desperately needed hard look at electoral democracy itself."

" The right to say No to the whole damn thing is the most powerful political weapon we have as members of this or any society, because it denies the State legitimacy. "

" the worst thing about voting: it distracts us from the need to explore, collectively, without mediation by governments or politicians, how we can manage our future. "

https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/11/05/why-im-not-voting/

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: DrTskoul on November 06, 2018, 02:00:52 AM
Laursen at counterpunch presents a case for abstention:

"non-voters have been sending an increasingly loud and consistent message for at least 50 years now: we’ve lost our faith in electoral democracy. "

"a deep disillusionment that’s been growing for decades with an electoral democracy that becomes less democratic all the time, a sclerotic and highly institutionalized two-party system"

"Voting affirms the present system. It signifies our assent ... It maneuvers potentially revolutionary social movements into unthreatening political channels (the best decision Black Lives Matter ever made was to not endorse candidates). It nudges us to blame specific policies and politicians, rather than take a desperately needed hard look at electoral democracy itself."

" The right to say No to the whole damn thing is the most powerful political weapon we have as members of this or any society, because it denies the State legitimacy. "

" the worst thing about voting: it distracts us from the need to explore, collectively, without mediation by governments or politicians, how we can manage our future. "

https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/11/05/why-im-not-voting/

sidd

The power of no is what makes a Brexit possible...no voting is abdication of one's civic responsibility....
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: oren on November 06, 2018, 04:56:16 AM
If all the disenfranchised and disillusioned people rose up as one to actually vote, things could be very different.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on November 06, 2018, 05:19:00 AM
Re:If all the disenfranchised and disillusioned people rose up as one to actually vote

as Chris Hedges asked, and I quoted a few posts ago,

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2385.msg179644.html#msg179644

Which scum shall they vote for ?

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: mostly_lurking on November 06, 2018, 11:49:45 AM
The last sentence of this monumental "speech" is the reason I think the GOP's will do well.
The same people will want to feel this again.

https://youtu.be/YKeYbEOSqYc

Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on November 06, 2018, 10:17:12 PM
Sjursen at antiwar on one issue studiously ignored in this election:

"But none, I repeat, none, say a thing about American foreign policy, the nation’s ongoing wars, or the exploding, record defense budget. You see, in 2018, despite being engrossed in the longest war in US history, the citizenry – both on Main Street and Wall Street – display nothing but apathy on the subject of America’s clearly faltering foreign policy."

"Both mainstream wings of the Republicans and Democrats like it that way. They practice the politics of distraction and go on tacitly supporting one indecisive intervention after another, all the while basking in the embarrassment of riches bestowed upon them by the corporate military industrial complex. Everyone wins, except, that is, the soldiers doing multiple tours of combat duty, and – dare I say – the people of the Greater Middle East, who live in an utterly destabilized nightmare of a region."

" there may be some distinction between Republican and Democratic policies; but on the profound issues of war and peace, there is precious little daylight between the two parties. That, right there, is a formula for perpetual war."

"This November 6th is profound because it demonstrates, once and for all, the utter vacuousness of American politics."

"no one – not the generals or the civilian policymakers – seems capable of articulating an exit strategy. Maybe there just isn’t any."

"none of that will be on the ballot today ... They’ll be casting ballots based on the illusion of differentiation between two highly corporate political entities that are squarely in the pocket of the weapons’ industry and their Wall Street financiers. And, tonight, when the media outlets dazzle their viewers with holograms, charts, and other neat toys depicting the day’s winners and losers – not one station will even utter that naughty word: Afghanistan."

https://original.antiwar.com/Danny_Sjursen/2018/11/05/2012334409/

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 07, 2018, 06:13:02 PM
On Nov. 2 I wrote, "a shift [to the Ds in the House] of either 17 (±5) or 42 (±5) seats".  With a shift of only 32-35 [whatever it turns out to be - edit: 34 changed to 35], this election is decidedly less 'wavy' then I expected, and represents slightly more change than is average for the mid-term election during a President's first term.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 07, 2018, 07:03:48 PM
On Nov. 2 I wrote, "a shift [to the Ds in the House] of either 17 (±5) or 42 (±5) seats".  With a shift of only 32-34 [whatever it turns out to be], this election is decidedly less 'wavy' then I expected, and represents slightly more change than is average for the mid-term election during a President's first term.

Yes.  The Dems gain in the House is somewhat tempered by the losses in the Senate.  Pending any recounts and runoffs, it appears that the GOP will pick up three seats. 
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: gerontocrat on November 07, 2018, 07:47:36 PM
VICTORY !! said the democrats

VICTORY !! said Trump.

Not a lot has changed in opinions amongst the population of the USA in general. Say I
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 07, 2018, 08:28:58 PM
VICTORY !! said the democrats

VICTORY !! said Trump.

Not a lot has changed in opinions amongst the population of the USA in general. Say I

Exactly!
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on November 07, 2018, 08:43:58 PM
Politico has a state by state breakup at

https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/

The maps are useful. The rural-urban divide persists, democrats show gains in suburbs, republicans retain rural edge.

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on November 07, 2018, 10:39:49 PM
Only in the USA: Republican brothel owner wins election posthumously

“I’m fine with him being dead and winning,” O’Rourke said. “I know a lot of people who were going to vote Democrat if he were alive, but will now vote Republican because he’s dead.”

Wait, what ?

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-nevada-dead-candidate-20181106-story.html

Didn't Bush the Lesser appoint an attorney general who had lost to a dead guy ?

It comes back to me, it was John Ashcroft, the first of a trio of craven,disastrous lesser Bush AGs (the latter two were gonzales and mukasey) who went along with illegal wars, illegal detentions, assassinations, covert military actions, torture, and mass surveillance of their own citizenry and the world. Altho, in fairness, Ashcroft did protest a bit at the NSA programs. And now that i think about it some more, the deputies of the first two were Mueller and Comey.

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sedziobs on November 08, 2018, 04:45:07 PM
Polls are one piece of information.  Forecasters don't use them exclusively or uncritically.  Despite your baseless assertion that polls are not accurate 99% of the time, 538 forecast an average gain of 36-39 seats depending on the model.  They also predicted a Republican gain in the Senate.  The predictions weren't perfect, but they were useful. 

So why do you SPIN the Polling Numbers to push your own Beliefs and Biases while either discarding out of hand OR intentionally choosing to remain ignorant of the facts and the default FALSE ASSUMPTIONS that are presented - overlooking the valid evidence based details and the historical facts contained in those very Polls and prior results?  Are you really DUMB or just an intentionally MANIPULATIVE LYING pseudo-expert?
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sedziobs on November 08, 2018, 05:29:02 PM
It remains to be seen what the final popular vote margin will be.  NYT forecast it to be 6.9% as of yesterday afternoon.  California might have millions of mail ballots left to be counted.

Quote
In this year’s primary election, more than two-thirds of California voters mailed in their ballots. But on election night, workers were able to tabulate only about 58 percent of what would be total ballots cast—another 3 million-plus arrived over the next three days to be tallied. That left many counties scrambling to handle the avalanche of mail-in ballots days after election night.
capradio.org/articles/2018/11/06/ (http://www.capradio.org/articles/2018/11/06/californias-close-election-results-will-roll-in-days-or-weeks-lateagain-it-doesnt-have-to-be-that-way/)

Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 08, 2018, 06:21:14 PM
Polls are one piece of information.  Forecasters don't use them exclusively or uncritically.  Despite your baseless assertion that polls are not accurate 99% of the time, 538 forecast an average gain of 36-39 seats depending on the model.  They also predicted a Republican gain in the Senate.  The predictions weren't perfect, but they were useful. 

So why do you SPIN the Polling Numbers to push your own Beliefs and Biases while either discarding out of hand OR intentionally choosing to remain ignorant of the facts and the default FALSE ASSUMPTIONS that are presented - overlooking the valid evidence based details and the historical facts contained in those very Polls and prior results?  Are you really DUMB or just an intentionally MANIPULATIVE LYING pseudo-expert?

With regards to 538, they were slightly biased to the Democrats.  The gain in the House is likely to fall short of 36, but not by much, so this was fairly close.  Considering the lack of polling in many Congressional races, this was quite good.

Their Senate predictions were off by much more.  In their final predictions they had the Democrats winning Arizona (+1.7), Florida (+3.2), and Indiana (+3.7), with only Missouri (+1.1) and Nevada (+1.1) as pure tossups. They predicted 50:48, with two tossups, which was not a gain, but no change (assuming the two tossups split equally).  If the results in FL and AZ stand (no guarantee), the GOP will gain 3 seats.

Their likely Democrat wins were Montana (+4.8), West Virginia (+7.5), New Jersey (+11.5), Ohio (10.6), and Michigan (11.3).  Their likely Republican states were  North Dakota (-4.6), Texas (-4.9), and Tennessee (-5.3).  The actual results were AZ (-1.0), FL (-0.2), IN (-7.3), MO (-6.0), NV (+5.0), MT (+3.1), WV (+3.2), NJ (+9.6), OH (+6.4), MI (+6.3), ND (-10.8), TX (-2.6), and TN (-10.8).  Of these 13 states, only twice did the Democrats perform better than predicted (TX and NV), and their predictions favored the Democrats in these states by an average of 3.8%!  This is outside their margin of error, so they definitely appears to be a bias.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sedziobs on November 08, 2018, 07:10:11 PM
538 "predicted" 51:49 as the most likely deterministic outcome with a 17.7% chance.  But the probabilistic forecast also had 54:46 as an 8.6% chance.  Their 80% confidence interval included everything from 49:51 to 55:40.  So while they missed on many individual states, they weren't too far off when accounting for uncertainty.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 08, 2018, 07:54:02 PM
538 "predicted" 51:49 as the most likely deterministic outcome with a 17.7% chance.  But the probabilistic forecast also had 54:46 as an 8.6% chance.  Their 80% confidence interval included everything from 49:51 to 55:40.  So while they missed on many individual states, they weren't too far off when accounting for uncertainty.

That still does not account for their almost 4% bias towards the Democrats in their voting predictions.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sedziobs on November 08, 2018, 07:58:24 PM
Yes it does.  It includes their assessment of how likely their deterministic prediction was biased in either direction.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 09, 2018, 12:43:39 AM
Yes it does.  It includes their assessment of how likely their deterministic prediction was biased in either direction.

So are you saying that they purposely prediction on the far edge of uncertainty towards the Democrats?  Just like they did in the presidential election?  I guess next time, we just adjust their numbers 3% to the right, and they should be right on.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sedziobs on November 09, 2018, 12:55:33 AM
I said nothing like that.  Do you understand the difference between a probabilistic forecast and a deterministic prediction?  538's forecast showed an 83% chance that their "prediction" would be wrong.  The far left edge of the 80% confidence interval was a 2 seat gain for Democrats.  The far right was a 4 seat gain for Republicans.  That is an acknowledgement of uncertainty and polling bias.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 09, 2018, 02:50:22 AM
I said nothing like that.  Do you understand the difference between a probabilistic forecast and a deterministic prediction?  538's forecast showed an 83% chance that their "prediction" would be wrong.  The far left edge of the 80% confidence interval was a 2 seat gain for Democrats.  The far right was a 4 seat gain for Republicans.  That is an acknowledgement of uncertainty and polling bias.

You still have not addressed the consistent 4% bias in their polls towards the Democrats.  That is not within the margin of error.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sedziobs on November 09, 2018, 02:58:36 AM
538 doesn't conduct polls.  What they do is make forecasts based off of them and supplementary information.  The forecast accounts for potential bias in the polls.  The result, even with the 4% poll bias, was within their stated margin of error.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 09, 2018, 01:40:47 PM
538 doesn't conduct polls.  What they do is make forecasts based off of them and supplementary information.  The forecast accounts for potential bias in the polls.  The result, even with the 4% poll bias, was within their stated margin of error.

Alright predictions, let's not quibble.  But the 4% was not within their standard of error.  An individual poll, yes.  But as you state, their forecasts are not done on individual polls.  They are supposed better at forecasting.  Yet, their analysis performed poorer than straight polling.  All their adjustments towards the Democrats proved false, just like the 2016 presidential race.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sedziobs on November 09, 2018, 05:40:31 PM
So what you're saying is that only Nate Silver is allowed to say such things. And you, of course. Maybe you're related to Nate or do you own shares in 538?
This is absurd.  I have never said that only Silver or myself acknowledge uncertainty and bias.  I'm explaining how probabilistic forecasts (of all types) incorporate uncertainty.  It's a very basic concept that some have trouble grasping.

Will you backtrack on your rant about the national House vote if it climbs above 6%?  It's up to 4.5% as of now.  How are you determining that it is outside RCP's margin of error?  I don't see it on their site.

Klondike Kat, The 4% average polling error is itself deterministic.  538 gives their margins of error for each of those.  The only one that appears to be outside it is Indiana.  Out of 13 states you listed, one state being outside the margin of error is not unexpected.  The fact that most of the bias was in one direction is built into the aggregate model.  Silver (and others) account for correlation, where a miss in one state will affect others in the same way.  That's part of the reason why the aggregate model had anywhere from 49 to 55 Republican seats within the confidence interval.

538's analysis did not perform worse than straight polling.  The polls only model had 54:46 as an 8.3% chance.  Their classic model had it as an 8.6% chance.  That's not much better than polling, but it's not worse.  If you mean straight polls without any kind of model, that also underperformed.  Using that would give a 0% chance of 54:46.  The same is true of the 2016 election.  Looking only at polls (as most media outlets did) gave Clinton essentially a 100% chance of winning.  538 gave her a 71% chance.  There wasn't a single raw poll that had Trump ahead in Wisconsin from the beginning of September through the election.  But 538 gave Trump a 15% chance of winning Wisconsin, which combined with correlation, gave much better odds of a national Trump victory than polls alone.
Quote
Our probabilities are based on the historical accuracy of election polls since 1972. When we say a candidate has a 30 percent chance of winning despite being down in the polls, we’re not just covering our butts. Those estimates reflect the historical uncertainty in polling.
...
while the election is contested at the state level, the error is correlated from state to state. If a candidate beats his polls to win Ohio, there’s a good chance he’ll also do so in Pennsylvania.

You continue to say "4% was not within their standard of error".  What is your rationale for that?
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 09, 2018, 07:54:15 PM

Klondike Kat, The 4% average polling error is itself deterministic.  538 gives their margins of error for each of those.  The only one that appears to be outside it is Indiana.  Out of 13 states you listed, one state being outside the margin of error is not unexpected.  The fact that most of the bias was in one direction is built into the aggregate model.  Silver (and others) account for correlation, where a miss in one state will affect others in the same way.  That's part of the reason why the aggregate model had anywhere from 49 to 55 Republican seats within the confidence interval.

538's analysis did not perform worse than straight polling.  The polls only model had 54:46 as an 8.3% chance.  Their classic model had it as an 8.6% chance.  That's not much better than polling, but it's not worse.  If you mean straight polls without any kind of model, that also underperformed.  Using that would give a 0% chance of 54:46.  The same is true of the 2016 election.  Looking only at polls (as most media outlets did) gave Clinton essentially a 100% chance of winning.  538 gave her a 71% chance.  There wasn't a single raw poll that had Trump ahead in Wisconsin from the beginning of September through the election.  But 538 gave Trump a 15% chance of winning Wisconsin, which combined with correlation, gave much better odds of a national Trump victory than polls alone.
Quote
Our probabilities are based on the historical accuracy of election polls since 1972. When we say a candidate has a 30 percent chance of winning despite being down in the polls, we’re not just covering our butts. Those estimates reflect the historical uncertainty in polling.
...
while the election is contested at the state level, the error is correlated from state to state. If a candidate beats his polls to win Ohio, there’s a good chance he’ll also do so in Pennsylvania.

You continue to say "4% was not within their standard of error".  What is your rationale for that?

By comparison, realclearpolitics uses only polling data in their analyses.  In the same states as mentioned previously, their calculated polling composite average bias was less than 1% in favor of the Democrats.  RCP states a greater uncertainty in their averages.  Hence, they listed seven states as tossups (NV, MO, IN, AZ, FL, MT, and WV).  They have access to the same polling data as Nate Silvers at 538.  Therefore, one can only conclude that the fundamentals that 538 includes in their analyses are skewed blue. 

In 2016, the RCP election map heading into election day was Clinton 203, Trump 164, and 171 tossups.  Compare that to 538 which posted Clinton 270, Trump 215, and 53 tossups (all tilted towards Clinton).  This was largely a result of their 2.5% bias towards Clinton in the battleground states.  538 had Clinton's lead in WI, MI and PA outside their margin of error in their fundamentals, giving those state to her in their final prediction.  By the way, the Trafalgar group posted polling day on Monday before the election showing Trump ahead in PA, MI, and FL.  No polls were conducted in WI during the final week.

I am not the only one to have discovered this bias.  A little searching revealed this:

https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/10/12/nate-silver-538s-measurable-3-5-democratic-bias-and-the-2018-house-race/
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sedziobs on November 09, 2018, 08:46:23 PM
I never said that 538 didn't have bias, and I never made any comparison between 538 and RCP.  The point is that 538's forecasts accounted for the possibility of bias.  The results were within the margin of error.

Quote
RCP states a greater uncertainty in their averages.
Can you provide a link to that?  I can't find any margins of error for their polling averages.  I imagine they have different criteria for what they label toss-ups compared to 538, which uses 60% chance or less.  Does RCP list their criteria or methodology anywhere?

RCP had a 7.2% bias toward Clinton in Wisconsin, 538 had a 6.0% bias in their fundamentals forecast (within their confidence interval).  I don't know how you're coming up with the idea that the result was outside their margin of error.

By the way, Sinema has opened up a 0.5% lead in Arizona and Florida is headed for a recount.  If those both go D (not sure how likely that is), then the result will be 52:48.  That would match 538's central prediction, and give Democrats a 5-3 edge in RCP toss-ups.  It would mean 538 split their toss-ups, and the only deterministic miss was Indiana.  Of course there's no guarantee that will happen.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 09, 2018, 10:02:54 PM
So we can agree that 538 has a blue bias?
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sedziobs on November 09, 2018, 10:35:12 PM
Yes, 538 had a blue bias in the last two elections.  Can we also agree that the results were within their stated confidence interval?
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sedziobs on November 10, 2018, 03:35:13 AM
Sinema is now up to a full 1.0% lead in Arizona. 
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Neven on November 10, 2018, 10:14:53 AM
That is a well-written text, with excellent annotations by Dore. Thanks for typing all of that out, Lurk.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Neven on November 10, 2018, 01:13:43 PM
Hansen has castigated Obama to the bone for selling out completely on his promises of 2008 campaign. Others still believe Obama can walk on water. The disconnect is unbearable for me to cope with some days. To me Obama is a 100% first rate fraud.

Maybe you might find that article here http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/index.shtml
---

https://youtu.be/RQ3lo9Jwlto

Martin Gisser will say this is all Republican propaganda, and stupid James Hansen and his granddaughter actually fall for that shit. If only they were better at maths, they would see that reality is like a clockwork.

Amazingly depressing that such a video only gets around 1500 views after a year and a half.  :-\

But never mind. What did Trump do today?
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 10, 2018, 03:23:29 PM
That is a well-written text, with excellent annotations by Dore. Thanks for typing all of that out, Lurk.

Yes, very nice.  I think it is extremely difficult (but not impossible) for a third party to emerge from the grass roots.  The situation would need to deteriorate more from the current situation to facilitate such.  What I envision to be more likely is the Democratic party splitting in two; creating moderate and progressive parties.  Currently, the Democratic Party is trying to be both, and as a result, there is division within.  Many progressives, who disliked Clinton and the Party leaders, would embrace this new development, as would the moderates, who have been running against them.  I suspect that the moderate wing would retain the Democratic name, as the party appears to be headed that direction anyway.  Many moderate, independent voters would align with this "new" Democratic Party, while the greens and others on the left are likely to join the new progressive party.  There might be some growing pains for a years while everything sorts itself out, and Republicans may benefit briefly, but it would represent more of the people and make the elections more interesting.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 10, 2018, 11:50:10 PM
Yes, 538 had a blue bias in the last two elections.  Can we also agree that the results were within their stated confidence interval?

The results were within the confidence level.  The problem I have with them is predicted an outcome when the difference between the candidates is less than their confidence level.  If the difference between the two candidates is within the uncertainty range, than it should be classified as a tossup.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 11, 2018, 02:23:23 AM
It looks like the (incompentent, thank Gods) mail bomber and a Drumpf supporter, who targeted Don'TRumps' political opponents with packages containing explosives, sent the failed bombs from a postal office distribution center in Florida. When this was discovered the distribution center was shut down and by happenstance it had a bunch (i don't know how many) of filled absentee ballots within. These were not counted in the first count right after the election was over. Thus, a criminal did prevent citicens' votes being counted and this should be added to his charges if there is no recount.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 12, 2018, 09:46:43 AM
It looks like Georgia's election officials don't know their own addresses. They have preprinted a wrong address to the mail-in ballots so these might get lost in post. I do not know how widespread this problem is. Anyway they are incompetent, if not outright frauds. If they've done this knowingly they should face a jail sentence of some +5 years, I guess.

https://mobile.twitter.com/hill_ruthie/status/1061009244915417093
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Buddy on November 13, 2018, 08:55:28 PM
I EXPECT that Trump will win Florida after the recount is done, and is likely to win Mississippi as well when they vote.  But to tell you just how important those two state Senate seats are to Trump .... if the Dem’s somehow won those two seats ...   it would mean that there would only have to be 16 Republican Senators that vote for removing Trump from office, as opposed to 20 Republicans needed if the Republicans win both seats.

This is Trump’s “fallback wall” ...   and he wants/needs it as high as he can get it.  Because once the information about how corrupt he is, he will continue to lose support by the US public and Congress.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Buddy on November 15, 2018, 01:51:03 AM
In Donald Trump’s “very close to complete victory” last Tuesday .... the new House members went to Washington DC today for “Freshman Orientation” and a photo shoot.  Note that there are still close to 10 seats that are still too close to call, but the photos of the new Freshman House members is GOBSMACKING ....

Republicans:  30 men + 1 woman (NO .... that is NOT a misprint ... ONE)

Democrats:    22 men + 34 women

So 61% of the new House Democrat’s are women .... and 3% of the new House Republicans are women.

And how man of the Republican men are WHITE?  Only ALL OF THEM.  The Dem’s had about 15 of the 56 new members from an ethnic minority (visually ... so it could be more ... that is about 27%).

I think the GOP needs to change their name from the Grand Ole’ Party (GOP), to the GWM .... (Grand White Men). 😱

And you wonder why Donnie was campaigning to “angry white males”?
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 15, 2018, 10:34:26 AM

Republicans:  30 men + 1 woman (NO .... that is NOT a misprint ... .... and 3% of the new House Republicans are women.

Really funny, this time republicans elected less women representatives than Iran, this might become a meme :
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SG.GEN.PARL.ZS
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sedziobs on November 15, 2018, 04:02:35 PM
In California 39th, Cisneros has steadily gained and is now within 122 votes.  In Maine, the 2nd district is going to a runoff, and both third party candidates have endorsed the Democrat.  If those both go to the Dems, and they take California 45th and Utah 4th where they're leading, we're looking at 234-201.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sedziobs on November 15, 2018, 08:46:48 PM
In Maine, the 2nd district is going to a runoff, and both third party candidates have endorsed the Democrat.
So this wasn't exactly a runoff.  It was a ranked choice recount, and Democrat Jared Golden won today.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 16, 2018, 03:38:26 PM
… I suggest the US House of Representatives will, come January 3, have (all approximations) either 210 or 235 Democrats (with either 225 or 200 Republicans), or a shift of either 17 (±5) or 42 (±5) seats.  …
From Electoral-Vote.com (https://electoral-vote.com/evp2018/Senate/Maps/Nov16.html):
Quote
… Depending on which outlet you go with, there are anywhere from four to eight seats still up in the air. It is our view that the lower end of that is correct, and that only GA-07, TX-23, UT-04, and CA-39 remain in doubt. Democrats have the upper hand in two of those, and Republicans in the other two, which means that the House likely to end up with 234 Democrats and 201 Republicans, a net gain of 38 seats for the blue team. That's obviously very good, and given that two of the Republican members who are headed for victories (Chris Collins and Duncan Hunter in California) are under indictment, they might eventually make it 40.
So, it appears my criterion for a Democratic wave is about to be met.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 21, 2018, 02:15:09 PM
From electoral-vote.com (https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2018/Senate/Maps/Nov21.html#item-2):
Quote
… GA-07 is the only House race left unresolved. Assuming [Democrat] Bourdeaux does not prevail [419 votes down before recount of non-in-person ballots (in-person voting was on no-paper-trail machines)], then it will be 234 Democrats in the House to 201 Republicans, meaning that the blue team picked up 39 seats.
Hmmm, gain of 38 or 39 seats?  (see previous message's quote of E-V.com - Politico (https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/house/) says it's a 39 seat gain for the D-team.)  My Nov. 2 prediction (with a D-wave) was not too bad!  Wish I could guess future ASI E, A and V numbers as well.   :P
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on December 03, 2018, 08:19:40 PM
… I suggest the US House of Representatives will, come January 3, have (all approximations) either 210 or 235 Democrats (with either 225 or 200 Republicans), or a shift of either 17 (±5) or 42 (±5) seats.  …
With apparently all U.S. House of Representative races determined, Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections) reports

                Dem     Rep
Seats won  235     200
Change       +41    -41

Pity I wrote "all approximations"!
On January 3, however, one or more of these seats may be open due to death, resignation or refusal to seat (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unseated_members_of_the_United_States_Congress) (most likely [but not very likely, at all]: GA-7)

GA-7 issues (https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/bourdeaux-concedes-after-7th-district-recount-adds-woodall-margin/QAtEzEm8kR6Qv2nxUsJ1RI/)
Quote
Gwinnett County, which makes up the largest portion of the 7th District, has been the target of questions — and litigation — from Democrats and voting rights advocates for several weeks. The county was continually under fire for its voting procedures, from its rejection of absentee ballots, which critics said occurred at a far higher rate than in other Georgia counties, to hours-long lines in some precincts on Election Day.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: oren on December 03, 2018, 09:21:20 PM
Good call Tor!
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: TerryM on December 03, 2018, 11:51:29 PM
Good call Tor!
Ramen!
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: ASILurker on December 04, 2018, 04:22:55 PM
November 21, 2018
Noam Chomsky: Moral Depravity Defines US Politics

C.J. Polychroniou: Noam, with people still arguing about winners and losers from the 2018 midterm elections (and there is clearly a lot to say about what those elections mean), what do you consider to be the most striking features of the latest manifestation of American democracy in action?

Noam Chomsky: The most striking features are brutally clear.

Humanity faces two imminent existential threats: environmental catastrophe and nuclear war. These were virtually ignored in the campaign rhetoric and general coverage. There was plenty of criticism of the Trump administration, but scarcely a word about by far the most ominous positions the administration has taken: increasing the already dire threat of nuclear war, and racing to destroy the physical environment that organized human society needs in order to survive.

These are the most critical and urgent questions that have arisen in all of human history. The fact that they scarcely arose in the campaign is truly stunning — and carries some important, if unpleasant, lessons about our moral and intellectual culture.

To be sure, not everyone was ignoring these matters. They were front and center for those who are constantly vigilant in their bitter class war to preserve their immense power and privilege. Several states had important ballot initiatives addressing the impending environmental catastrophe. The fossil fuel industry spent huge, sometimes record-breaking, sums to defeat the initiatives — including a carbon tax in the mostly Democratic state of Washington — and mostly succeeded.

We should recognize that these are extraordinary crimes against humanity. They proceed with little notice.

The Democrats helped defeat these critically important initiatives by ignoring them. They scarcely mentioned them “in digital or TV ads, in their campaign literature or on social media,” a New York Times survey found. Nor, of course, were they mentioned by the Republicans, whose leadership is dedicated to driving humanity off the cliff as soon as possible — in full knowledge of what they are doing, as easily demonstrated. [...]

There is plenty of competition for moral depravity in the current remarkable moment of human history. Perhaps the prize goes to a bureaucracy, maybe in honor of Kafka: Trump’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Right in the midst of the campaign, it produced a detailed study calling for an end to regulations on emissions, with a rational argument: extrapolating current trends, it turns out that by the end of the century the game will be over. Automotive emissions don’t contribute very much to the catastrophe, so there isn’t any point trying to limit them.

In brief, let’s rob while the planet burns, putting poor Nero in the shadows.

This surely qualifies as a contender for the most evil document in history. Again, not an issue in the campaign.

more
https://truthout.org/articles/noam-chomsky-moral-depravity-defines-us-politics/



How could this be so? Long term research all over the world has long had the answers to that question. eg from the Netherlands ... a quick easy summary of key factors

Communication Studies Theories
Theory clusters - Mass Media
https://www.utwente.nl/en/bms/communication-theories/sorted-by-cluster/Mass-Media/


Lurk369:Best of Bookmarks
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on December 04, 2018, 05:59:15 PM
Yesterday I wrote, "On January 3, however, one or more of these seats may be open due to … refusal to seat (most likely [but not very likely, at all]: GA-7)"

Well, NC-9 may be in more (a lot more) trouble than GA-7.
NC-09 Just Keeps Getting Shadier (https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2018/Senate/Maps/Dec04.html#item-6)
Quote
As authorities investigate the election in NC-09, which ostensibly resulted in Republican Mark Harris being elected to Congress by a narrow margin, they keep finding more and more troublesome signs. The latest of those come from a set of 161 absentee ballots that got a careful look-see.

In North Carolina, a witness must sign an absentee ballot to confirm that the person who filled it out is who they claim to be. Normally, that witness is a family member or close friend, and it's rather unusual for a person to be witness on more than one or two or maybe three ballots. Well, it's unusual everywhere except for NC-09, it would seem. The 161 absentee ballots in question were "witnessed" by just a handful of people, one who signed off on 40 ballots, another who signed off on 30, and three more who signed off on at least 10. All of these people appear to be connected, and all of them (or nearly all of them) appear to know Leslie McCrae Dowless. Dowless is a Republican operative who just so happened to work on Harris' campaign, and who denies any wrongdoing. Of course, he also denied any wrongdoing when he was convicted of insurance fraud in the early 1990s after taking out a $163,000 policy on a dead man. So, you may not want to take his word for it, especially since one witness has already signed an affidavit that Dowless was set to receive a $40,000 bonus if Harris won.

The bipartisan elections board that is responsible for overseeing the election voted once again, this time by a 7-2 margin, not to certify the election (for now). Some Republican officials in the state are up in arms, but given that two of those seven votes were from Republicans, and a third was from an independent, they don't have much of a leg to stand on. If the board decides the election was not on the up-and-up, they can call for a new one to be held. At this point, that would seem to be the likeliest outcome.

2018 mid-term elections:  the gift that keeps on giving   ::)
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on December 05, 2018, 03:03:35 PM
House Democrats May Not Seat Mark Harris in January  (https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2018/Senate/Maps/Dec05.html#item-8)
electoral-vote.com - Dec. 5

Quote
Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD), who will be the Democratic majority leader in the House come January (and thus second in command, outranked by only the Speaker), said yesterday that if the election in NC-09 is still under a cloud in January—as it is now—the House will not seat Mark Harris (R), who has a slim lead over Dan McCready (D). There are many red flags out there concerning the election, including one that the Republicans violated state law in collecting absentee ballots, but that is not the only problem. There are numerous additional allegations of irregularities and if they are not cleared up, or Harris is given credentials by the state Board of Elections along partisan lines, the House Democrats are prepared to reject Harris and declare the seat vacant. That would force a special election to fill it.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: TerryM on December 05, 2018, 09:27:02 PM
House Democrats May Not Seat Mark Harris in January  (https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2018/Senate/Maps/Dec05.html#item-8)
electoral-vote.com - Dec. 5

Quote
Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD), who will be the Democratic majority leader in the House come January (and thus second in command, outranked by only the Speaker), said yesterday that if the election in NC-09 is still under a cloud in January—as it is now—the House will not seat Mark Harris (R), who has a slim lead over Dan McCready (D). There are many red flags out there concerning the election, including one that the Republicans violated state law in collecting absentee ballots, but that is not the only problem. There are numerous additional allegations of irregularities and if they are not cleared up, or Harris is given credentials by the state Board of Elections along partisan lines, the House Democrats are prepared to reject Harris and declare the seat vacant. That would force a special election to fill it.
Tor
Is there a precedent for such an action?
Thanks
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on December 05, 2018, 09:49:44 PM
America's Finest News Source: Republican legislature in Wisconsin limits powers of newly elected Democratic Governor

"the Republican-controlled Wisconsin legislature was working to weaken incoming Democratic governor Tony Evers by restricting his access to food, water, and shelter"

"a felony for anyone within Wisconsin’s borders to provide Evers with a warm bed or medical aid"

"passed another bill enabling them to cripple the incoming governor with a tire iron."

https://politics.theonion.com/wisconsin-legislature-weakens-incoming-democratic-gover-1830884970

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: SteveMDFP on December 05, 2018, 10:24:06 PM
House Democrats May Not Seat Mark Harris in January  (https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2018/Senate/Maps/Dec05.html#item-8)
electoral-vote.com - Dec. 5

Quote
Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD), who will be the Democratic majority leader in the House come January (and thus second in command, outranked by only the Speaker), said yesterday that if the election in NC-09 is still under a cloud in January—as it is now—the House will not seat Mark Harris (R), who has a slim lead over Dan McCready (D). There are many red flags out there concerning the election, including one that the Republicans violated state law in collecting absentee ballots, but that is not the only problem. There are numerous additional allegations of irregularities and if they are not cleared up, or Harris is given credentials by the state Board of Elections along partisan lines, the House Democrats are prepared to reject Harris and declare the seat vacant. That would force a special election to fill it.
Tor
Is there a precedent for such an action?
Thanks
Terry

Yes, several examples exist:
Unseated members of the United States Congress
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unseated_members_of_the_United_States_Congress (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unseated_members_of_the_United_States_Congress)

Getting into the weeds on this, it still seems perfectly feasible.  Expelling a member requires 2/3 majority, but refusing to seat an election winner takes just a majority.
Supremes in 1969 ruled that an eligible, duly-elected person could not be refused a seat.

You might think the State would get to decide what constitutes "duly-elected," but the Federal Contested Elections Act permits the loser of an election to appeal to the House itself.  Hearings have to be held, but the ultimate vote would be a foregone conclusion.

Hoyer is on a firm ground here.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: TerryM on December 05, 2018, 10:43:46 PM
I'll stay out of this for the moment except to say that it's unwise to press a case in which the outcome is liable to bite you when the pendulum has swung.


The Republicans have been playing similar games for a few electoral cycles at the state level. We'll see if anyone really wants to play this rough at the federal level.


Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on December 06, 2018, 05:02:59 AM
It is largely not a partisan battle going on in relation to NC-9.  Two of the 4 Republicans on the NC election board do not currently support certifying the election for the NC-9 House seat.  (A recent board vote on the matter was 5 to 2.)  The Democratic chairman of the board resigned to remove the "it's partisan" argument some Republicans started to make.   (A new vote, presumably, would be 4 to 2 against certifying that election.)  If the state (because of the board) does not do the paperwork required by the House, it is unlikely the House will seat anybody to represent that district.  If it becomes clear that what now looks like probable fraud really (truly) isn't, the election board will vote again and the House will most likely seat the certified winner.  If the seat remains vacant, NC will hold a special election.

Do read the Wikipedia article on un-seated individuals. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unseated_members_of_the_United_States_Congress)  The reason the House (and Senate) gets to decide who to seat (and not the state which held the election) is "Article I, Section 5 of the United States Constitution ... states that, 'Each House shall be the judge of the elections, returns and qualifications of its own members'".
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on January 04, 2019, 08:25:42 PM
Further to North Carolina Congressional District 9 …

New Congress Sworn in Without Representation for NC 9th District (https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2019/01/04/new-congress-sworn-in-without-representation-for-nc-9th-district)
Quote
WASHINGTON -- The new Congress was sworn in Thursday, with one notable exception. The seat for North Carolina's 9th district remains wide open amid an election fraud investigation.

“The clerk has not received a certificate of election for the 9th district for the state of North Carolina,” said Karen Haas, the House clerk from the dais above the House floor.

The North Carolina State Board of Elections has not certified the race.

Republican Mark Harris garnered about 900 more votes than his Democratic rival Dan McCready during the November election. However, Harris has come under scrutiny, with questions mounting about his relationship to a man accused of harvesting ballots.

Congress has the final say on its membership, but so far North Carolina lawmakers - Democrats and Republicans alike - do not seem interested in stepping into the fray.

"The House of Representatives does not want to inject itself into the process right now," said Rep. GK Butterfield, D-N.C. "We want North Carolina to complete the investigation and certify a winner."

It will be weeks before the new state elections board will meet. A court ordered the old board be dissolved.

If a new election is ordered, that could take additional months, meaning the seat could be left empty for quite a while.

The blame game is well underway.
In other NC congressional news …
[same article]
Quote
North Carolina Congressman Walter Jones - a Republican representing the eastern part of the state, including the Outer Banks - was also not in Washington for Thursday's swearing in. His office says he is recovering from a medical issue.
[from elsewhere - multiple sources] He is "the 12-term North Carolina congressman perhaps best known for helping to popularize the term 'Freedom Fries' during the Iraq War." and "[he] will be sworn into the new session of Congress privately at his home in Farmville, North Carolina, … due to an unspecified illness. " and "the Congressional Record [show] House colleagues granted Jones a leave of absence for the remainder of the 115th term by unanimous consent. Jones missed every vote in November and December, and missed about a quarter of all votes from July to September." and "He made news earlier this week when he suggested that President Donald Trump use some of his wealth to help pay for the wall he wants to build along the southern U.S. border that has led to the partial government shutdown."
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: TerryM on January 05, 2019, 06:01:56 PM
A little off topic but Freedom Fries, and the wild popularity they enjoyed, played a part in my flight to the relative sanity of Canada.


I suppose I'm in debt to the sickly congressman from N. Carolina. Without the rabid repetition of his xenophobic sound bite I might still be reliant on a Nevada HMO for my health care (if I could still afford the co-pay), always assuming I'd somehow survived after Nevada's finest doctors gave me less than 6 months to live back in 2004.


Terry

Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on February 22, 2019, 12:19:46 AM
Further to North Carolina Congressional District 9 …

North Carolina Orders New House Race After Officials Rule GOP Win ‘Tainted’ By Fraud (https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mark-harris-new-election-fraud_n_5c6f010be4b0e2f4d8a3f327)
The state elections board voted unanimously after seeing evidence that an operative working for Republican Mark Harris illegally collected absentee ballots.

I'll hazard a guess they will have new primary elections, too.
Title: Re: Elections 2018 USA
Post by: sidd on March 01, 2019, 09:04:42 AM
How the sausage was made:

" an unprecedented $4.15 million settlement with two sexual harassment victims"

"threatened a lawsuit days before the election"

"Attorney Paige Fiedler backed off her plan to file the lawsuit after a state lawyer told her that he “just got authority this morning” from the governor’s administration to settle the case, the emails show. The exchange came five days before the Nov. 6 midterm election ..."

"Reynolds won the election. Within weeks, her administration backed the $4.15 million payout ..."

"came from a fund used to support affordable housing developments"

Best democracy money can buy. Read all about it:

https://apnews.com/8ad011f20f0f443a96cfb177db7a00eb

sidd