Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Arctic sea ice => Topic started by: Ned W on September 19, 2018, 12:57:01 PM

Title: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Ned W on September 19, 2018, 12:57:01 PM
I thought it might be interesting to kick off this thread with some data on when the freezing season normally starts in each of the Arctic seas.  Here's a graph I made last year (so 2017 is not included in the statistics, but 2017 was a pretty average year):

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FdyR3SZF.png&hash=d37a445dcdca5e84e1ea9578bcb2c699)

In a normal year, the Greenland Sea would already have had more than a week of re-freezing, and the CAB and CAA would be about to start.

The graph is based on Piomas volume, so remember that it's a model rather than a measurement.  The first day of refreeze is the first day with an increase in volume after the last day at the minimum.  The first week represents the start of the first uninterrupted seven-day period of continuous increases in volume after the last day at the minimum.

The graph shows the means, but medians are probably better, so here's a table:

Okhot: first week = 336 (02-Dec) first day = 311 (07-Nov)
Berng: first week = 336 (02-Dec) first day = 312 (08-Nov)
Beauf: first week = 276 (03-Oct) first day = 266 (23-Sep)
Chukc: first week = 289 (16-Oct) first day = 273 (30-Sep)
ESS: first week = 272 (29-Sep) first day = 269 (26-Sep)
Laptv: first week = 277 (04-Oct) first day = 268 (25-Sep)
KaraS: first week = 276 (03-Oct) first day = 265 (22-Sep)
Baren: first week = 297 (24-Oct) first day = 270 (27-Sep)
GrnLS: first week = 249 (06-Sep) first day = 237 (25-Aug)
CAB: first week = 264 (21-Sep) first day = 256 (13-Sep)
CAA: first week = 268 (25-Sep) first day = 258 (15-Sep)
Baffn: first week = 280 (07-Oct) first day = 250 (07-Sep)
Hudsn: first week = 304 (31-Oct) first day = 274 (01-Oct)
Title: Re: The 2018-2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on September 19, 2018, 01:00:40 PM
Neven might not be happy.
Title: Re: The 2018-2019 freezing season
Post by: Ned W on September 19, 2018, 01:02:13 PM
About jumping the gun on this thread?

FWIW, last year's version of this thread (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2141.0.html) was started on August 22... and the previous year's (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1611.0.html) was started on July 20!  We are downright late here.
Title: Re: The 2018-2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on September 19, 2018, 01:22:45 PM
Neven might not be happy.

why not, it's about time and a great graph to start with indeed, finally something really new
and worth to study a bit. thanks NedW
Title: Re: The 2018-2019 freezing season
Post by: Sterks on September 19, 2018, 01:27:05 PM
Well done. As a fact, people were starting to discuss refreeze symptoms at the melting season thread. This was needed.
And last year I misread the shape of the pack and the calm weather forecasted, and opened it too soon (2017 showed anyway a very weak melting in the following days of that season)
Title: Re: The 2018-2019 freezing season
Post by: Sterks on September 19, 2018, 01:31:59 PM
And Neven is going to be happy that the Jaxa min fell into his bin, anyway
Title: Re: The 2018-2019 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on September 19, 2018, 01:39:34 PM
I hope the ire of the local gods is placated by such an outstanding way of starting the thread. Nice graph Ned W.
Title: Re: The 2018-2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on September 19, 2018, 01:56:11 PM
I hope the ire of the local gods is placated by such an outstanding way of starting the thread. Nice graph Ned W.
Mea Culpa. I was thinking about the Extent & Area Data thread. If my memory is correct (?) the great Lord M Vader opened up this year's extent and data thread and it was blocked by Neven.

ps: I hope Neven does not close the melting season threads (expecially extent and data) straightaway thread as I was thinking of doing a review of 2018 of the contrast between events in each sea would be interesting.

pps: The Chukchi and the ESS lost area on the 18th (none others)
Title: Re: The 2018-2019 freezing season
Post by: Ned W on September 19, 2018, 02:06:34 PM
a great graph to start with indeed, finally something really new and worth to study a bit. thanks NedW

Thank you!

I hope the ire of the local gods is placated by such an outstanding way of starting the thread. Nice graph Ned W.

Thanks.  I think that when I originally posted that, last year, you turned it into a map, which was a good idea.

I was thinking of doing a review of 2018 of the contrast between events in each sea would be interesting.

That would be great.  I'd love to see that review.
Title: Re: The 2018-2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on September 19, 2018, 03:34:20 PM
In the freezer it goes, and I'll pull it out again once JAXA goes 25K above the preliminary minimum reached yesterday. Traditions are there to be respected.  ;)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on September 24, 2018, 05:42:07 AM
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/nsPUvKDib9w/maxresdefault.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on September 24, 2018, 07:23:55 AM
Oooh a storm is threatening
The Arctic ice pack today
If it don't get some shelter
Oooh it's gonna fade away

Called... minimum
Might get blown away (Blown away, blown away)
Called... minimum
It might get blown away.  :D
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on September 24, 2018, 07:58:30 AM
September 19-23.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: meddoc on September 24, 2018, 08:25:41 AM
Yep, into the Freezer it goes.
But not without all that Water Vapour rotating around the Pack in meridional Flows.

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Eco-Author on September 24, 2018, 04:57:15 PM
Although it's not really hard to imagine the pack being 25% smaller as it was in 2012 (Ironically the same year sighted by the Mayans as the year of our awakening...), I think what BOE people fail to see is how hard it is for 'central ice' well away from the warmer coasts to get melted away.  ESS took a lot of blow torches right off the coast and look how long it took to disappear... I'm not at all saying I don't agree with the downward trend but that--to me--hides the remaining ice being well away from the warmer lands.  If you compare the current cap to the 80-2000's average, it really is like an open ocean Anyway... and seeing these extreme weather events already it is very dangerous to think we need to wait for a blue ocean before SHTF!  We talked most of '18's spring of how Bearing remained open and we see every year how Laptev also seems to have an open crack so given this year's record melting in Laptev (the heart of most Clathrate studies if I'm not mistaken) I'm going to hazard a guess that this one area will be the next harbinger of things to come!  The graphs are so off with recent dips in ESS etc. that one has to wonder if and when the warmth just gets enough of a foot hold to just up and collapse it!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on September 24, 2018, 08:01:48 PM
Although it's not really hard to imagine the pack being 25% smaller as it was in 2012 (Ironically the same year sighted by the Mayans as the year of our awakening...), I think what BOE people fail to see is how hard it is for 'central ice' well away from the warmer coasts to get melted away.  ESS took a lot of blow torches right off the coast and look how long it took to disappear... I'm not at all saying I don't agree with the downward trend but that--to me--hides the remaining ice being well away from the warmer lands.  If you compare the current cap to the 80-2000's average, it really is like an open ocean Anyway... and seeing these extreme weather events already it is very dangerous to think we need to wait for a blue ocean before SHTF!  We talked most of '18's spring of how Bearing remained open and we see every year how Laptev also seems to have an open crack so given this year's record melting in Laptev (the heart of most Clathrate studies if I'm not mistaken) I'm going to hazard a guess that this one area will be the next harbinger of things to come!  The graphs are so off with recent dips in ESS etc. that one has to wonder if and when the warmth just gets enough of a foot hold to just up and collapse it!

The land is only warmer in Summer.  The oceans have the advantage of being more of a battery.

No idea when that will be the overriding fact, but it will be the overriding fact.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on September 24, 2018, 11:12:55 PM
The 500MB blocking this September has been the most extreme of any year I can find. The only one in recent times that has a strong semblance, IMO, is 2010 (but less extreme).

That is interesting because 2010 was actually a moderate (or strong?) Nina winter, and we are currently looking to go +ENSO.

It is also interesting because the winter of 2010-11 was extremely severe for much of North America (in NYC we had non stop snowcover from 12/26 into February, with a massive blizzard 12/26/2010). This followed another very impressive winter in 2009-10 (snow was focused on the Mid Atlantic, when DC / Baltimore and Philadelphia got one 20" storm after another).

Despite the ENSO mismatch I could actually see a similar evolution this winter. We are also very much due for a snowless winter (the last was 2011-12). Maybe 2019-20 is the next step in this "step down" towards eventual BOE, with summers 2019-2020 acting as equivalent to 2011-12? If this is the case, we are possibly going to see our existing situation re: volume (already very bad) spiral into new records once more by springtime.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on September 24, 2018, 11:50:25 PM
Re BOE and the central ice, I think of it as some kind of negative feedback. The hardest ice to melt also has  the earliest probable refreeze date. So a year like 2016, which made the deepest inroads into this arctic heartland, also has an early minimum which possibly prevented a new area record. While years like 2012 and this year had a late minimum but did not threaten this heartland.
I think the extra factor that will defeat this defense is strong ice movement. Should some kind of dipole settle on the Arctic and push the thick ice continuously to the Fram or the Atlantic front, coupled with the right weather and some kind of August GAC it could produce a BOE before the early refreeze strikes back.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Eco-Author on September 25, 2018, 01:05:29 AM
Re BOE and the central ice, I think of it as some kind of negative feedback. The hardest ice to melt also has  the earliest probable refreeze date. So a year like 2016, which made the deepest inroads into this arctic heartland, also has an early minimum which possibly prevented a new area record. While years like 2012 and this year had a late minimum but did not threaten this heartland.
I think the extra factor that will defeat this defense is strong ice movement. Should some kind of dipole settle on the Arctic and push the thick ice continuously to the Fram or the Atlantic front, coupled with the right weather and some kind of August GAC it could produce a BOE before the early refreeze strikes back.

Yes... EXPORT!!! ...and maybe a rain bomb will eventually take it out! Great point of the early refreeze...
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on September 25, 2018, 03:15:30 AM
The models say the freeze up will crawl along. 

Literally crawl along.

The first week of August the ice will barely be above right now.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on September 25, 2018, 03:25:52 AM
I think the first BOE will be the year the freezing season ends with less than 18 (1000km3).

I think the hiatus in the September minimum is now obvious, but there is no such hiatus in the maximum yet. Will the maximum experience a hiatus like the minimum?

I do believe that the hiatus in the minimum is mostly due to the what Oren mentions:

Quote
The hardest ice to melt also has  the earliest probable refreeze date.

If there is no hiatus, then a year like 2016 or 2012 but with very low volume at the end of the freezing season is the end.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Bruce Steele on September 25, 2018, 03:29:44 AM
Friv, Do you mean 1st of Oct.?  Then Sept.  average will be under 4.75 in the pool.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on September 25, 2018, 03:55:17 AM
I would guess the record 500MB blocking occurring / forecast in models is partially due to the worst-ever imbalance between continental snowfall and volume / area.

2012 had no snow at this point, except a bit near Kamchatka. The only other years that come close are 2005, 2008, 2010, 2013, and 2014. Of those, 2018 is still the strongest across North America. 2010 was strongest across Eurasia. 2013 and 2014 were more evenly distributed across both Eurasia and North America, while 2005 and 2008 had decent N America and not much Eurasia (still way less than 2018).

I think the *situation* of the pack this year has led to the dislocation of the PV into the CAA due to how the melt season unfolded. And that has followed into the late September situation of, once again, record Canadian snowpack.

While ice area and extent may not be at record lows, the *disparity* between ice area / extent and continental snowcover is now worse than any other year. This will encourage far stronger -500MB continental anomalies, and combined with the accumulation of heat in Bering / Laptev / far NATL, result in record +500MB anomalies across the Arctic for much of the winter. This is likely to accelerate snowfall across the NHEM as we continue into autumn, and will also result in a worst-ever refreeze across the PAC, ATL, and possibly Russian fronts.

While the area of the continents covered by snow always surpasses sea ice area / extent, the speed at which it will do so this year relative to the condition of the sea ice is what matters most.

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/nh_sce.png)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on September 25, 2018, 06:21:21 AM
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-09-24...
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on September 25, 2018, 07:32:45 AM
JAXA SIE now almost 150K above the preliminary minimum. Looking at the animation slow wing just posted (CAA filling up, etc), I don't think it will go any lower, despite those crazy isobars in the coming 3-4 days.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on September 25, 2018, 09:19:42 AM

Yes... EXPORT!!! ...and maybe a rain bomb will eventually take it out! Great point of the early refreeze...

I do not know if you really intended it to be - but the tabloid/joyous/triumphalist tone of this post I find nauseating.

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: jplotinus on September 25, 2018, 01:38:34 PM
Slow wing’s most recent posted animation for the seven days ending 24 September appears to show a sizable flash refreeze in the ESS arm. Flash occurrences of that type, both melt and refreeze, are often seen differently by the sensors a day or so after the flash occurrence. If that happens in this instance, then another decline in extent could occur on that basis alone, though not likely enough to challenge the preliminary minimum, IMO.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on September 25, 2018, 08:23:40 PM
Attached is today's Arctic temperature (see the warmth invading the Arctic front),
and Sunday Arctic temperature anomaly (3.3 celsius, today +1.7 celsius)

What with significant SST +ve temp anomalies as well, surely freezing will be slow?
If not, considered me confused
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: harpy on September 25, 2018, 08:59:57 PM
Can we have an updated arctic temperature chart vs month?  I don't remember the name of the chart, but it has a red line overlaid on the historical average.

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on September 25, 2018, 09:42:57 PM
Is this the graph you are referring to Harpy ?

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

There has been a rise of late as a storm has introduced milder air up from the Barents Sea/Atlantic
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on September 25, 2018, 09:52:10 PM
There has been a rise of late as a storm has introduced milder air up from the Barents Sea/Atlantic

That may have something to do with it as well, but usually it's a sign that the Arctic Ocean has started to release its heat to the colder atmosphere, so that it can commence freezing over.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on September 26, 2018, 03:37:20 AM
Slow wing’s most recent posted animation for the seven days ending 24 September appears to show a sizable flash refreeze in the ESS arm. Flash occurrences of that type, both melt and refreeze, are often seen differently by the sensors a day or so after the flash occurrence. If that happens in this instance, then another decline in extent could occur on that basis alone, though not likely enough to challenge the preliminary minimum, IMO.

No way that is happening. 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on September 26, 2018, 05:08:13 AM
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-09-25...
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: AmbiValent on September 26, 2018, 07:58:36 AM
Does the near-zero mass balance right now mean there's already freezing on the Canadian side and in the Central Arctic Basin, but still melting on the Siberian side?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on September 26, 2018, 08:41:41 AM
September 21-25.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on September 26, 2018, 10:49:46 AM
JAXA SIE now almost 150K above the preliminary minimum. Looking at the animation slow wing just posted (CAA filling up, etc), I don't think it will go any lower, despite those crazy isobars in the coming 3-4 days.

And another 58K was added, 203K above the prelim now.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on September 26, 2018, 12:25:08 PM
Incredible.

The freeze up is going to crawl along.



Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on September 26, 2018, 04:03:42 PM
Given the unprecedented event taking shape I cant believe this forum is dead.

We might see extent losses im early October.

I cant find anything like this in the archives.

I mean not even close.

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on September 26, 2018, 04:17:19 PM

Friv, I'm watching.

The refreeze is becoming the most interesting part of the year!

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on September 26, 2018, 05:21:27 PM
September will be surely the warmest in several locations of Chukotka. For example, near Cape Dezhnev the warmest September was in 2007, monthly average was 6.5°C. In 2018, September 1-25 average reached 9.0°C. It is well above normal July.

Ice had some problems in the Bering Sea last winter.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Csnavywx on September 26, 2018, 06:25:49 PM
Given the unprecedented event taking shape I cant believe this forum is dead.

We might see extent losses im early October.

I cant find anything like this in the archives.

I mean not even close.

Yeah, the EPS mean even peaks above +3SD at tau 168, which is remarkable on an ensemble run at one week out.

Edit: The EC op run is at 4SD+ at 96hr and more or less keeps it there (or close) for a week. Nuts. That's a nuclear ridge.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Csnavywx on September 26, 2018, 06:46:15 PM
Incredible.

The freeze up is going to crawl along.

There's going to be some net losses in there if that comes close to verifying, perhaps some big ones with the wind forecast. The airmass that's being advected in is modified-subtropical in nature (temps well above 0C at 700mb) and with a big chinook event forecast off the north slope, it could get quite warm near the surface for quite some time. Typhoon Traimi will help out as well, by pumping a large moisture/heat flux into the ridge as it recurves into the mid-latitudes.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on September 26, 2018, 06:47:58 PM
Given the unprecedented event taking shape I cant believe this forum is dead.

We might see extent losses im early October.

I cant find anything like this in the archives.

I mean not even close.

Yeah, the EPS mean even peaks above +3SD at tau 168, which is remarkable on an ensemble run at one week out.

Edit: The EC op run is at 4SD+ at 96hr and more or less keeps it there (or close) for a week. Nuts. That's a nuclear ridge.
Impressive.  What's pumping it up?

What impact will it have on the freeze?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Csnavywx on September 26, 2018, 07:18:51 PM
Yikes.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 26, 2018, 08:20:13 PM
What are 2 meter temperatures over the Chukchi?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Eco-Author on September 26, 2018, 10:21:37 PM
Wondered since the atmosphere is warmer and thus ...more volume/height overall, doesn't that mean that even as we begin polar night with no sun on the surface, there is more 'air volume' still above the horizon being warmed by the sun.  This is what comes to mind when I see the 500mb anomaly from Friv. 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: be cause on September 26, 2018, 10:28:05 PM
dmi 80 as noted is rather high .. today was a record for the day and some 20'C above 1987 ! b.c.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Csnavywx on September 27, 2018, 12:37:53 AM
What are 2 meter temperatures over the Chukchi?

Well above freezing. Not surprising given 10-15C 850s. The 12z also develops a full blown Chinook off the North Range. Blowtorch weather for that part of the world.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 27, 2018, 01:19:55 AM
Wondered since the atmosphere is warmer and thus ...more volume/height overall, doesn't that mean that even as we begin polar night with no sun on the surface, there is more 'air volume' still above the horizon being warmed by the sun.  This is what comes to mind when I see the 500mb anomaly from Friv.

The atmosphere is not warmed directly by sunlight.

I asked the question because warm air intrusions at altitude does not always mean very warm temps at 2m.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: aperson on September 27, 2018, 05:41:47 AM
This seems like the beginning of a repeat of how the DJF trimonth went last year.

1. Low SIE in the Bering/Chukchi seas helps support a Rossby wavetrain that enhances a strong -EPO pattern. The -EPO pattern creates a heat dome over these regions that prevents refreeze and creates a feedback loop.

2. Weak SIE in these regions alongside persistent blocking highs result in more transport of ice into the ESS and a slowing/shutdown of transpolar drift into the Atlantic

3. A lack of ice transported into the Atlantic results in less of a freshwater lens along the Atlantic margin.

4. Atlantification continues deeper into the Atlantic margins of the Arctic as saline water can mix closer to the surface.


Honestly, freezing season is when the Arctic is exciting.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on September 27, 2018, 05:45:33 AM
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-09-26...
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on September 27, 2018, 08:00:37 AM
The refreeze in the ESS/North of Chukchi is masking lots of sudden movements, which seem to have a net negative effect on extent when eyeballing the animation.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on September 27, 2018, 11:13:57 AM
Extent is increasing in the Greenland Sea (increased Fram export - wind driven?), the CAA (refreezing I guess) and in the Beaufort (wind driven). At the same time it is decreasing towards Siberia and on the Atlantic front north of Svalbard and Franz Josef Land (wind driven?)

So the increases in extent seem to me to be mostly wind driven at the moment - melt has mostly stopped, refreeze is starting up, but the ice continues to move around.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 27, 2018, 02:58:55 PM


Honestly, freezing season is when the Arctic is exciting.

I have felt this way for the last few years. I visit daily all year round and am disappointed that many of the experts here don't comment as often in the winter.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Eco-Author on September 27, 2018, 07:48:08 PM
Is there any sort of DMI-like graphic that shows temps outside of 80-N?  Pure SPECULATION but it 'seems' that GW's extreme temps in the summer vs. the still relatively cold arctic sets up a stronger temp difference and thus stronger Jetstream in the summer but as soon as fall hits, I have to assume the difference between lower latitude temps vs. the arctic must be less, and therefor a weaker jet allows warmer air to flow north.  I have to assume that NH winter temps are less of a diff. to the arctic than summer??? 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: vox_mundi on September 27, 2018, 07:53:56 PM
NSIDC Calls It: 2018 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Extent Tied for Sixth Lowest on Record
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2018/09/arctic-sea-ice-extent-arrives-at-its-minimum/

See also:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2278.msg174445.html#msg174445
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on September 27, 2018, 08:34:15 PM
ECMWF has some pretty extreme temps for the next few days over the arctic (850 hpa tem anomaly shown, most of the arctic is 10+ C above normal!):
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on September 27, 2018, 08:42:27 PM
Is there any sort of DMI-like graphic that shows temps outside of 80-N?  that NH winter temps are less of a diff. to the arctic than summer???

You are right. Summer differences have not really changed but winter is really changed. Here I charted (using data from cci-reanalyzer) winter temp differences between 70-90N and 25-40 N first, then summer . EDIT: winter chart modified as it was wrongly scaled. Nonetheless, the message is the same
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: be cause on September 27, 2018, 11:07:48 PM
temps in the high Arctic continue to rise . Accordingly , today's dmi80 is over 8'C above average , again a record . Another way of looking at it .. temps are where they should have been 22 days ago .

Perspective .. the all time dmi80 record anomaly was last Feb .. @ 21'C  b.c.

ps Worldview today shows the Siberian arm of ice beautifully !  :)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on September 28, 2018, 12:24:32 AM
temps in the high Arctic continue to rise . Accordingly , today's dmi80 is over 8'C above average , again a record . Another way of looking at it .. temps are where they should have been 22 days ago .

Perspective .. the all time dmi80 record anomaly was last Feb .. @ 21'C  b.c.

ps Worldview today shows the Siberian arm of ice beautifully !  :)
Worldview also shows catastrophic losses along the ATL front NE of Svalbard (near whatever those other islands I am not Googling at the moment are called). The retreat over the past few days has been dramatic but accelerated even more today.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on September 28, 2018, 01:09:25 AM
Above-freezing winds at 68 km/h now crossing 80 degrees N latitude & driving waves into the edge of the ice pack.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on September 28, 2018, 05:19:40 AM
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-09-27...
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on September 28, 2018, 08:06:18 AM
September 23-27.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on September 28, 2018, 08:41:40 AM
0z EURO says this thread is fake news and the melt season is far from over. DMI confirms imminent rapid Laptev retreat and very substantial front movement elsewhere as well.

Fake news!!!

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018092800/ecmwf_z500aNorm_nhem_8.png)

l-oh-l

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018092800/ecmwf_T850a_nhem_9.png)

Truly insane! But equally absurd are the anomalies flanking the NATL. I could also see both The Thames and The Hudson freezing synchronously for the first time since... the 1700s? But that probably pales in comparison to how far we would have to go back to get year-round ice-free Bering, which is seemingly plausible this year / next.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on September 28, 2018, 10:26:55 AM
0z EURO says this thread is fake news and the melt season is far from over. DMI confirms imminent rapid Laptev retreat and very substantial front movement elsewhere as well.

Fake news!!!

Will you take this back and apologize if you turn out to be wrong?

JAXA had another 18K uptick and is now almost 250K above the prelim.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on September 28, 2018, 10:42:26 AM
0z EURO says this thread is fake news and the melt season is far from over. DMI confirms imminent rapid Laptev retreat and very substantial front movement elsewhere as well.

Fake news!!!

Will you take this back and apologize if you turn out to be wrong?

JAXA had another 18K uptick and is now almost 250K above the prelim.
I say, Neven, does that mean you don't think the Thames is going to freeze over ? And I was just about to ask NSIDC to add the North Sea and English Channel to their list of Arctic Seas.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: RikW on September 28, 2018, 10:43:59 AM
0z EURO says this thread is fake news and the melt season is far from over. DMI confirms imminent rapid Laptev retreat and very substantial front movement elsewhere as well.

Fake news!!!

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018092800/ecmwf_z500aNorm_nhem_8.png)

l-oh-l

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018092800/ecmwf_T850a_nhem_9.png)

Truly insane! But equally absurd are the anomalies flanking the NATL. I could also see both The Thames and The Hudson freezing synchronously for the first time since... the 1700s? But that probably pales in comparison to how far we would have to go back to get year-round ice-free Bering, which is seemingly plausible this year / next.

Well, a temperature anamoly in the pacific-side isn't that weird. In the '80-'10 period that part was mostly frozen during this time of the year, so temperatures won't go easily above freezing point, because of the ice. So the average over a 30 year period will be low, because there will be almost no data points above 0 degrees. Thus there is no normal distribution of the data points. The upper part is non-existent, so the average is 'too' low.

Since there is no frozen ice in that part, it opens up the possibility for far higher temperatures. And for short periods you will alway have huge deviations of the average. Today it can be 10 degrees above average, next week it can be 10 degrees below. And 1000 km to the south it can be the opposite situation. But if it's 12 degrees higher and 8 degrees lower, than it's on average higher, which is much more serious than just a snapshot.

So when i see those maps I always think "Wow, that's hot/cold compared to average, but it's only a snapshot"
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on September 28, 2018, 10:44:18 AM
I could also see both The Thames and The Hudson freezing synchronously for the first time since... the 1700s?

The Thames freezing? With positive 850 hpa temps? In October? Wow, that is quite a stretch to say the least :)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on September 28, 2018, 10:55:23 AM
I don't really get all the hullabaloo re. 850 HPa charts. As far as I understand it (and it's admittedly a very low level of understanding), 850 doesn't have any direct bearing on surface temperatures, but is mostly used to show location of airmasses which indicates where fronts/lowpressure areas are to be found. Given that the Arctic has become much stormier in the last few years, it shouldn't really come a surprise that 850 HPa values are far away from long-time averages.

And thinking that the Thames is going to freeze over based on an 850 HPa prediction one week out seems just silly - the Met Office certainly wouldn't agree, with max predicted London temparatures around 19 degrees centigrade on October 6th, which is slightly above average.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on September 28, 2018, 11:15:31 AM
0z EURO says this thread is fake news and the melt season is far from over. DMI confirms imminent rapid Laptev retreat and very substantial front movement elsewhere as well.

Fake news!!!
<snip>

Agree it's at least possible.

Most of the extent gain appears to have come from some of the slush regions on the Pacific side - more specifically, north of the Bering & Chukchi seas - that is now registering as ice.

It hasn't even been that cold there - just -3 or -4 degrees C - nor that still. If the wind picks up there then much of that new ice could flash back to registering as sea and the extent could potentially drop again. Conceivably even to a new minimum!

Observe the candy floss (cotton candy) that is now registering as partly ice, e.g. around 180 degrees longitude, 77N latitude:
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on September 28, 2018, 11:35:28 AM
Looking at the actual 2m temperatures the only area where refreeze is likely is around Ellesmere Island and along the North-Greenland coast. Any leads in this area will presumably freeze over.

Melting is presumably still ongoing around the perifery, where air temps are around or even above 0 degrees, but at a much slower rate than previously.

The increases in extent that we have seen are mostly wind driven, and would be considerably bigger if the Atlantic front north of Svalbard - Franz Josef Land wasn't being driven significantly back.

The only place outside CAA where there is significant and visible increase in extent when looking at the various maps is the tongue of ice creeping into the Beaufort, presumably wind-driven since the temps are nowhere low enough for refreeze there.

So changes in wind direction and the continuing peripheral melt could quite concievably result in drops in extent - but a drop of 200 km2 or more to match the minimum seems pretty wild and as far as I can see totally without precendent in previous years.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on September 28, 2018, 02:36:47 PM
NSIDC Daily Extent UP by 99k. Only the Central Arctic Sea shows area (5 day trailing average)  loss of any significance on the 27th (25k). See 2018 extent thread.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Csnavywx on September 28, 2018, 04:27:43 PM
0z EURO says this thread is fake news and the melt season is far from over. DMI confirms imminent rapid Laptev retreat and very substantial front movement elsewhere as well.

Fake news!!!

Will you take this back and apologize if you turn out to be wrong?

JAXA had another 18K uptick and is now almost 250K above the prelim.

Yeah, getting back to minimum is going to be tough. We could very well see some drops (and probably will starting in 48-72 hr when the main push of WAA makes its way into the basin), but making up 300-400k is gonna be tough.

The bottom line is that this year is quickly going to retreat into last place. By how much is the question.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on September 28, 2018, 05:53:57 PM
0z EURO says this thread is fake news and the melt season is far from over. DMI confirms imminent rapid Laptev retreat and very substantial front movement elsewhere as well.

Fake news!!!

Will you take this back and apologize if you turn out to be wrong?

JAXA had another 18K uptick and is now almost 250K above the prelim.

Yeah, getting back to minimum is going to be tough. We could very well see some drops (and probably will starting in 48-72 hr when the main push of WAA makes its way into the basin), but making up 300-400k is gonna be tough.

The bottom line is that this year is quickly going to retreat into last place. By how much is the question.
Neven is probably going to be right. But I do think we could still see a decent decrease and indefinite stall in extent. The only real gains imminently will be across the CAA. In fact, the first new ice is now forming across Foxe Basin, which is expected to dip below freezing in its entirety by D10 according to the EURO.

(https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS132SD/20180928115200_WIS132SD_0010250651.gif)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: harpy on September 28, 2018, 06:17:15 PM
Interesting.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: weatherdude88 on September 28, 2018, 08:42:24 PM
Profuse assumptions are being made. We cannot assume the atmospheric temperature profile under areas of high pressure at 850 MB or 500 MB, will correlate to the surface being as anomalously warm, as it would during northern hemisphere summer.

(https://i.imgur.com/6Y1j6tM.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/lQ5otYk.jpg)

It is probable, there will be a layer of closer to average temperatures near the surface, than at higher altitudes, due to less solar isolation (less surface heating) and a cooler surface.

I predict northern hemisphere sea ice extent and area will continue to increase, albeit with a slower increase than average. The 850 MB and 500 MB anomalies are not indicative of the actual surface anomaly after northern hemisphere summer.

The decrease in cloud thickness / coverage under high pressure, should also allow for more heat energy to radiate into space. This could also increase the heat anomaly at 850 MB and 500 MB.

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on September 28, 2018, 08:55:05 PM
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/ds/gfs_arc-lea_t2anom_3-day.png
Anomalous connected temperatures as high as 10+degC over average, are predicted to swamp the North Pole, including all(?) of the Arctic, Alaska, far eastern Siberia, eastern Russia & some climes further south, while anomalously low temperatures will cover much of Canada, mid-northern continental U.S. & northern Greenland. Hopefully, the miserable cold temperatures of Canada won't be a repeat of the long enduring, previous winter Canadian cold of last year.   
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on September 28, 2018, 11:52:45 PM
Interesting.

WACCy...Warm Arctic Cold Continents.  I think the cold is going to be only relative, but in comparison it will be clear within a few years.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on September 29, 2018, 12:19:45 AM
  One can ask why the Pacific side has started to re-freeze even though temperatures are nowhere near as low as the -10 degrees C often stated here as the rule-of-thumb temperature when refreeze starts.

  A factor I haven't seen discussed here is the clear skies on the Pacific side - as seen in the Worldview screenshot in my previous post.

  Re-freeze is due, not to low temperatures, but to loss of heat.

  A clear sky facilitates loss of heat from the water as thermal radiation. That is why ice can form on a puddle on a cloudless night even when the ground temperature is above freezing.

  In my understanding, thermal radiation is likely to be a large, perhaps dominant, contribution to the re-freeze on the Pacific side. Are the contributing components to heat loss modelled in some of the predictive models for the Arctic? If so, what average percentage is thermal radiation direct to space?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on September 29, 2018, 05:23:23 AM
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-09-28...
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on September 29, 2018, 08:04:02 AM
I remember Jim Hunt stating a year or two ago when ice was forming at record pace that that was a bad thing because it didn't permit heat to escape from the arctic ocean as well as open water. Therefore, the slower refreeze we are seeing now, being the very opposite, should be a good thing later in the season because more open water means more escape of heat from the arctic ocean.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on September 29, 2018, 08:16:54 AM
Quote
One can ask why the Pacific side has started to re-freeze even though temperatures are nowhere near as low as the -10 degrees C often stated here as the rule-of-thumb temperature when refreeze starts.
I suspect that after the late melting in this region,  the top layer is fresher and therefore more prone to early freezing and less conductive to full mixing of the water column when cooled from above.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on September 29, 2018, 10:49:21 AM
I remember Jim Hunt stating a year or two ago when ice was forming at record pace that that was a bad thing because it didn't permit heat to escape from the arctic ocean as well as open water. Therefore, the slower refreeze we are seeing now, being the very opposite, should be a good thing later in the season because more open water means more escape of heat from the arctic ocean.

Agreed, and the current weather is very favourable to compaction as well.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on September 29, 2018, 11:17:45 AM
20 days ascat and amsr2-uhh. (click to run)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on September 29, 2018, 11:38:05 AM
I remember Jim Hunt stating a year or two ago when ice was forming at record pace that that was a bad thing because it didn't permit heat to escape from the arctic ocean as well as open water. Therefore, the slower refreeze we are seeing now, being the very opposite, should be a good thing later in the season because more open water means more escape of heat from the arctic ocean.

Agreed, and the current weather is very favourable to compaction as well.
Is not that but one half of the equation?

The other half being - the later the freeze, the shorter the freezing season, the thinner the ice, the earlier the sea is ice free, the longer the open sea can absorb heat from the sun, the higher sea temperature delays the next freezing season.......

Two opposing forces working against each other. Which will prevail?

Perhaps much will depend on the available store of ocean heat to be lost. Looking at Arctic Ocean SST anomalies suggests to me to keep the closest watch on the Bering and the Chukchi. In the 2017-18 freezing season, the Bering Sea at maximum was barely 50% of "normal".
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: echoughton on September 29, 2018, 12:55:21 PM
I remember Jim Hunt stating a year or two ago when ice was forming at record pace that that was a bad thing because it didn't permit heat to escape from the arctic ocean as well as open water. Therefore, the slower refreeze we are seeing now, being the very opposite, should be a good thing later in the season because more open water means more escape of heat from the arctic ocean.

Agreed, and the current weather is very favourable to compaction as well.
I like this!!!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on September 29, 2018, 01:05:37 PM
I don't see this as some kind of welcome negative feedback, but simply as a consequence of having more heat in the system. Similar to the way a warming planet emits more heat to space thanks to black body radiation, this doesn't save us, but is rather a natural byproduct of the warming process.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Jim Pettit on September 29, 2018, 02:01:07 PM
I remember Jim Hunt stating a year or two ago when ice was forming at record pace that that was a bad thing because it didn't permit heat to escape from the arctic ocean as well as open water. Therefore, the slower refreeze we are seeing now, being the very opposite, should be a good thing later in the season because more open water means more escape of heat from the arctic ocean.

I suppose we'll see what this means for 2019. It's interesting to note that NSIDC extent's post-minimum refreeze has very closely followed 2011's--and 2011 was of course followed by 2012's recordbreaking melt. It's also interesting to note that 2018's to-date average extent is second lowest on record, behind only 2016, and slightly lower than 2nd and 3rd place holders 2017 and 2012.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on September 29, 2018, 02:25:48 PM
"One can ask why the Pacific side has started to re-freeze"
It looks more like the ice is expanding/rotating into the Pacific side. Near the center of the ice cover there are desert conditions, bone dry air - freezing winds, whenever a crack opens it instantly freezes over, that slowly but surely expands the pack. As it moves south it loses ground to the planets rotation, about 25k per deg., in order to bypass the CAA shoreline it would need about another 10k. Tidal movement has been keeping the ice from becoming fast, thus every few hours it moves a little further south.
 Between the pole and the center of the pack the conflicting pressures forcing the ice in different directions adds to the number of leads to be flash frozen. On the Atl. side there's too much heat and too much wave action to allow the pack to expand, though nothing to stop it's exit through Fram. There appears to be a warm current flowing beneath Beaufort, from the NSI towards Lancaster/Amundsen keeping central Beaufort from freezing, and allowing wave action to continue on that front.
That current seems to be associated with a feature around 77N 172W. On hycom (https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/beaufort.html) 'ice opening' it looks to be pulsed from below, possibly connected to tidal surges, creating massive shallow waves which are impacting the melt of ESS On 'sss' it shows up as fresher water/melt I'd expect more saline from below, so is the melt being forced south from beneath the ice? and although it mainly rotates ccw there are signs of counter rotation suggesting two different energy signatures.
This is the last day I expected any downturn so if any of this is relevent the freeze should gather pace come monday.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Sterks on September 29, 2018, 02:31:53 PM
I don't see this as some kind of welcome negative feedback, but simply as a consequence of having more heat in the system. Similar to the way a warming planet emits more heat to space thanks to black body radiation, this doesn't save us, but is rather a natural byproduct of the warming process.
Yep, one has to carefully see what the heat balance is, and if the refreezing is being delayed by external input of heat (like today) or purely by heat release from a very bad season as 2007 and 2012.
Let's wait until October, and see how fast refreeze is in some areas ESS and CAA and slow in others
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on September 29, 2018, 09:34:34 PM
I remember Jim Hunt stating a year or two ago when ice was forming at record pace that that was a bad thing because it didn't permit heat to escape from the arctic ocean as well as open water. Therefore, the slower refreeze we are seeing now, being the very opposite, should be a good thing later in the season because more open water means more escape of heat from the arctic ocean.

no, last year was very slow and was not followed by any higher max at all, on the contrary.

umkehrschluss ist nicht zulässig ;)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on September 29, 2018, 09:38:23 PM
I remember Jim Hunt stating a year or two ago when ice was forming at record pace that that was a bad thing because it didn't permit heat to escape from the arctic ocean as well as open water. Therefore, the slower refreeze we are seeing now, being the very opposite, should be a good thing later in the season because more open water means more escape of heat from the arctic ocean.

Agreed, and the current weather is very favourable to compaction as well.

just look at the 2017 graph and one can see that the opposite happened while i'm not saying that it's directly related but then there is so much excess heat in both, water and air that it does not matter a lot anymore.

of course weather conditions have to play along, it's stil possible that an outlier on the high side occurs but then that as well would not be directly related but due to weather patterns.

the heat is on and does not go away because of that fraction of higher see surface when we look at it globally and i still am of the opinion that regional events mostly have to be seen in the global context.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on September 30, 2018, 05:27:24 AM
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-09-29...
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on September 30, 2018, 05:30:20 AM
.... more open water means more escape of heat from the arctic ocean....
..... except in regions with strong downwellings, where slightly warmer solar heated waters(which used to be solar-reflective ice), instead of remaining at the surface, have been forced to deep waters, either on continental shelves or even into ocean depths, for long-term storage..... until  future release from ocean circulation patterns into the atmosphere.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on September 30, 2018, 08:52:25 AM
September 25-29.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on September 30, 2018, 10:03:16 AM
Interestingly, I notice the ESS has some new ice winking back out. Meanwhile, the Greenland Sea has what appears to be new ice.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Wherestheice on September 30, 2018, 10:04:20 AM
Based off the extent data, it looks like this year is indeed gonna be a bad refreeze. That's what I predict at least.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on September 30, 2018, 10:22:51 AM
The late crazy weather is almost behind us now. I expect refreeze to pick up after tomorrow, with the ice edge expanding rapidly towards the Atlantic, etc.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on September 30, 2018, 11:01:03 AM
The late crazy weather is almost behind us now. I expect refreeze to pick up after tomorrow, with the ice edge expanding rapidly towards the Atlantic, etc.
With the exception of the CAA (edit-and Greenland Sea), at the moment 'refreeze' is nearly all wind driven and the ice is very mobile. Pacific side compaction likely to continue. Atlantic side dispersion likely to reverse after a couple of days north of Svalbard.
Agreed, a lot of ice will flow through the Fram Strait.
crazy weather=ocean weather?

wipneus regional extent https://tinyurl.com/yawuh468
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on September 30, 2018, 11:53:19 AM
The CAB chart is crazy. But I believe it will hit the physical limit soon.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on September 30, 2018, 12:36:52 PM
The late crazy weather is almost behind us now.

Is it?
There still seems to be a tremendous amount of heat coming from the Pacific. Attached 4 days ECMWF forecast
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on September 30, 2018, 02:16:07 PM
Well, every winter is a bit crazy now. I was referring to the tight band of isobars and 60 hPa pressure difference between the high on the Pacific side and the low on the Atlantic side. One more day of that and then the high pressure takes over. Sure it will bring in heat from the Pacific, but it will also bring clear skies.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Csnavywx on September 30, 2018, 05:26:10 PM
Barrow is at -2C this morning under hours of clear skies. Barter Island at -1C. Not going to get much freezing done in this pattern. CAA will have to make up the difference.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Eco-Author on September 30, 2018, 06:34:19 PM
The CAB chart is crazy. But I believe it will hit the physical limit soon.

Looks as if a lot is getting pushed into CAA...? 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on September 30, 2018, 08:36:31 PM
Update on Mercator 300m salinity, aug1-sep30. (every 2days, scale is not static)
http://bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr/en/permalink/PSY4/animation/3/20180801/20180930/2/4
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on September 30, 2018, 08:48:01 PM
Barrow is at -2C this morning under hours of clear skies. Barter Island at -1C. Not going to get much freezing done in this pattern. CAA will have to make up the difference.

Yes. Not much freezing in this part of Arctic and right up the Russian side.

But then again it isn't exactly the big Chinook and melt you were talking about 4 days ago either.  ;)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Csnavywx on September 30, 2018, 10:44:05 PM
Barrow is at -2C this morning under hours of clear skies. Barter Island at -1C. Not going to get much freezing done in this pattern. CAA will have to make up the difference.

Yes. Not much freezing in this part of Arctic and right up the Russian side.

But then again it isn't exactly the big Chinook and melt you were talking about 4 days ago either.  ;)

Wouldn't get too comfy. Downsloping flow doesn't really get going until late tonight and tomorrow over NW Alaska as the core of stronger southerly flow aloft shifts eastward from the Strait. Shows up particularly well on the 850 charts. Not much has changed from when this was a 96 hour forecast.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on September 30, 2018, 11:03:03 PM
September average temperature in some locations of Chukotka:

Uelen (Bering Strait) - 8.6°С. 5.1° above normal September, 2.1° above previous highest (2007), 1.9° above normal July.
Pevek (East Siberian Sea) - 9.0°C. 6.0° above normal September, 1.3° above previous highest (2007), 0.3° above normal July.
Anadyr (Bering Sea) - 9.9°C. 5.3° above normal September, 2.2° above previous highest (2010), 1.7° below normal July.

Forecast is warm again.

(https://pp.userapi.com/c850120/v850120030/3ba91/HZSFFlDBsOI.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on October 01, 2018, 12:24:32 AM
Update on Mercator 300m salinity, aug1-sep30. (every 2days, scale is not static)
http://bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr/en/permalink/PSY4/animation/3/20180801/20180930/2/4

Is this still real? And if so, any explanations?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: be cause on October 01, 2018, 01:31:53 AM


the dmi 80'N records continue to be shattered every day .. today was the fifth in the sequence . 2 metre temps remain over 8'C above normal .. that is a little below -4'C rather than heading toward the daily norm of nearer -13'C. b.c.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 01, 2018, 02:10:43 AM
Update on Mercator 300m salinity, aug1-sep30. (every 2days, scale is not static)
http://bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr/en/permalink/PSY4/animation/3/20180801/20180930/2/4

Is this still real? And if so, any explanations?
I think the animation posted accurately reflects the Mercator model on the site linked though, as we all should be aware, it's not real. To paraphrase FOoW:
Warm, salty Pacific water [appears to be] flowing up through the Bering strait on the Alaskan coast, then sinking into Barrow channel into the Arctic ocean at 30m and 100m.
There appears to be some evidence of that on the animations at those depths and a suggestion of similar flows on the Siberian side of the Chukchi Plateau.
Hycom model agrees with incoming salinity through the Bering Strait at 0m but I'm not aware of another 300m model.

Perhaps the buoy analysts can confirm or refute.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Eco-Author on October 01, 2018, 03:28:16 AM
Update on Mercator 300m salinity, aug1-sep30. (every 2days, scale is not static)
http://bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr/en/permalink/PSY4/animation/3/20180801/20180930/2/4

Is this still real? And if so, any explanations?

If it was a Kelvin wave from the deep waters, this could change the whole dynamic of the arctic: lowering freezing temps, holding more heat in summer, drawing up a long chain of warmer water? and likely half hidden under the existing pack as it looks to only show around the edges!  Wondering if the 'bobbing effect' of so many smaller bergs might serves as a pump to circulate itself.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 01, 2018, 03:41:15 AM
DMI 80N has been wicked hot recently (not counting the melting season when the temps are bound toward freezing) and there have been records about every other month.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on October 01, 2018, 05:09:16 AM


the dmi 80'N records continue to be shattered every day .. today was the fifth in the sequence . 2 metre temps remain over 8'C above normal .. that is a little below -4'C rather than heading toward the daily norm of nearer -13'C. b.c.

Indeed. (http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on October 01, 2018, 05:16:18 AM
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-09-30...
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 01, 2018, 05:21:23 AM
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-09-30...
Large region of ice winking out in the ESS, balanced by continued growth in the Beaufort and Greenland Sea.
I wouldn't be surprised if today's JAXA extent change comes in slightly negative.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on October 01, 2018, 05:38:20 AM
Large region of ice winking out in the ESS, balanced by continued growth in the Beaufort and Greenland Sea.
I wouldn't be surprised if today's JAXA extent change comes in slightly negative.

Slightly positive still, 10K, but maybe tomorrow.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on October 01, 2018, 10:07:34 AM
"Is this still real? And if so, any explanations?"
 another possibility is that the saline water is moving across the Beaufort at depth and is backing up in the direction it's coming from and merely leaking into the Beaufort gyre following the shelf bathymetry. That is it's Atl. water.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 01, 2018, 10:51:44 AM
I've sent Mercator an email.
edit: The tip of the ESS arm from polarview yesterday (cropped and enhanced)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 01, 2018, 05:30:38 PM
Impressive retreat of the ice north of Franz Josef.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on October 02, 2018, 05:16:34 AM
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-10-01...
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 02, 2018, 07:47:55 AM
September 27 - October 1.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on October 02, 2018, 09:21:19 AM
Can someone explain me how so much heat can intrude towards the N.Pole from the Pacific? How can that happen? Any specific mechanisms?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: sark on October 02, 2018, 09:33:53 AM
Can someone explain me how so much heat can intrude towards the N.Pole from the Pacific? How can that happen? Any specific mechanisms?

The Bering & Chukchi are HOT.  +4-5C.  Seems to me like it's throwing a high and making DMI's 80N temp chart plateau.  I dunno if that's a good explanation.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 02, 2018, 10:54:16 AM
I'm no meteorologist, but

Low pressure centred over Novaya Zemla (heading East), high pressure over South Beaufort Sea encourages winds to flow northwards from a warm Siberia and /or Pacific?

Maybe yet another anecdotal example of the hypothesis that AGW / Climate Change has made it more likely that when a weather pattern becomes established it will dig in for many days?

Meanwhile, sea ice may decline today, or at least be lower than average increase. Depends whether that warmth melts more stuff on the Pacific front than the cold increases extent in the CAA and Greenland Sea.

14 seas defined by NSIDC in the Arctic, 14 different climatic and weather environments. Even the Hudson has 2 distinct areas - the smaller and almost enclosed Foxe Basin in the North that looks like it is going to freeze very soon, and the the main basin that looks like it will hold out for a bit longer.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 02, 2018, 11:00:50 AM
Really hot. Pevek and Uelen got +14.5°C and +14.0°C yesterday. Both are 2.8-2.9° above previous highest temperature in October. Wrangel Island also got the highest temperature in October (+7.6°C, 1.3° above previous).
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on October 02, 2018, 11:20:25 AM
Can someone explain me how so much heat can intrude towards the N.Pole from the Pacific? How can that happen? Any specific mechanisms?
I'll take a punt, Amundsen is not huge lets say 300 by 100 km and the tides are not huge .2-.6m but it's the only game in town. The tidal forcing twice a day drives a current across the Canadian/Alaskan mainland that detatches the incoming Pacific water from the coast at times and consistently provides resistance to it's ingress. The Pacific water backs up and flows instead into the deep west of Chuckchi Plateau here it meets and mixes with the increasing flow of Atl. water coming past the Lomonosov ridge. Some fraction gets caught up in turbulence caused by the tail end of the Amundsen driven current. Just as Amundsen drives water out twice a day so it draws it in, from the general direction of NSI but likely from just north of Chuckchi plateau. The easiest fraction of water to move is the surface so the Pacific waters are also drawn into the area where the Amundsen bound surface current begins.
   It's well worth looking through the various parameters at the link, i do full tilt/full screen, there's nothing that looks too different to other models.
The link (http://bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr/en/permalink/PSY4/animation/3/20180801/20180930/2/4) done.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 02, 2018, 12:14:47 PM
Today's ecmwf waves and  temps from windy.
edit:@johnm33 -forgot the link?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 02, 2018, 07:31:45 PM
It is very interesting that the September snowfall situation resulted in the #1 extent reading in the satellite record for North America.

Snowfall has been shown to be a substantially mitigating factor to some components of spring melt (i.e. more extant cover = higher albedo = colder airmasses into / surrounding parts of the Arctic, although +continental snowfall also acts to further advect oceanic heat towards the Arctic when continental cold airmasses discharge into the Pac / ATL / etc).

But what if the mitigation is contingent on extant sea ice being in place? That is, IF snowfall across the continents increases much faster than sea ice in coverage, leaving a large portion of the Arctic blue while much of lower Russia / the upper US gets covered, does that put the cold airmass discharge -> oceanic heat advection pump feedback into overdrive, overwhelming any other benefits?

Looking at the way this September has evolved into October one could seemingly make the case for the situation over North America being driven by the +500MB anomalies that are highest over the Bering.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 02, 2018, 07:39:50 PM
Ascat, day264-274(2.6MB).
Worldview, end of the Beaufort arm, oct1
Refreeze and export into the CAA and Fram Strait but no clear signs of refreeze on the ice edge in the Arctic Ocean. Compaction from Pacific and Atlantic sides gives little chance of refreeze between opening leads. Perhaps the recent flashing in/out on amsr2 has been snow on thin ice.
Hopefully the Mclure Strait will freeze completely before all the thicker ice escapes.
edit: That gap north of SZ is going to be trouble.
Reminder that viirs brightness temperature, band15 is handy when Worldview goes dark.
Worldview, Ellesmere, oct2. https://tinyurl.com/yau9af5c
Looks like a lemon squeezer
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 02, 2018, 07:58:12 PM
The late crazy weather is almost behind us now. I expect refreeze to pick up after tomorrow, with the ice edge expanding rapidly towards the Atlantic, etc.
Yes, High Arctic temperatures will drop lower sometime (soon or already?), since the present High Arctic temperatures AVERAGE 7degC over average. But as Arctic freezing increases, AGW on the average, will cause present High Arctic temperatures to remain above their 60 year averages.   
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 02, 2018, 10:46:07 PM
Wrangel Island also got the highest temperature in October (+7.6°C, 1.3° above previous).
+9.3°C reached today. So 3.0° above previous highest which was in 2016.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on October 02, 2018, 10:49:38 PM
Reminder that viirs brightness temperature, band15 is handy when Worldview goes dark.
Worldview, Ellesmere, oct2. https://tinyurl.com/yau9af5c

Thanks for tip Uniquorn. Darkness is not far off Eureka now. Currently down to -20 C there.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 03, 2018, 12:03:29 AM
The late crazy weather is almost behind us now. I expect refreeze to pick up after tomorrow, with the ice edge expanding rapidly towards the Atlantic, etc.
Yes, High Arctic temperatures will drop lower sometime (soon or already?), since the present High Arctic temperatures AVERAGE 7degC over average. But as Arctic freezing increases, AGW on the average, will cause present High Arctic temperatures to remain above their 60 year averages.
GFS has temp anomaly increasing from 2.7 (now) to 4.5 celsius by Sunday 7th (and staying well above +4 for the week after). The image suggests this could give DMI North of 80 a substantial bump up.

As yet I see no reason to see slow extent gain changing to average increases for the next week or so. Having made a prediction I have also prepared my disclaimers in advance.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on October 03, 2018, 12:13:07 AM
Can someone explain me how so much heat can intrude towards the N.Pole from the Pacific? How can that happen? Any specific mechanisms?

strong southerlies over mostly warm / much warmer than average waters almost consistently for the last few weeks with a few outliers only.

considering where the only ice that can still melt is and considering the winds and temps as well as the water temps that surround the main ice pack, it's still possible to see drops and/or that we remain flat for another few days.

further, since we have so many discussions about the different years and areas, where happens what and when, i recommend to always consult the global development as well. globally we are quite steadily moving around lows over the last few years which makes totally sense, putting into account that we are dealing with "global warming" and it's effects and not the other way around.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 03, 2018, 05:43:18 AM
The dynamic between HB / Chukchi + Bering will be very interesting to watch unfold. With snowcover at all-time highs for this time of year across North America, an extremely early refreeze of HB appears very likely.

At the same time, Chukchi and Bering are scorching, their adjacent landmass is less snowy vs. normal compared to the Canadian Shield, and the pair have the Pacific importing very saline warmth at depth (ongoing as I type).

The regime has shifted entirely from the days when Chukchi + Bering would be barely and seasonally ice free while HB was always seasonally ice free. We now have a ratio that has swung wildly towards more ice coverage in HB relative to Chukchi and Bering, which has worsened exponentially since 2012 (would be curious to see this graphed, actually  -- someone please attempt to prove me wrong  ;D).

Will an extremely early HB refreeze encourage even deeper / more persistent troughing than last winter across North America in 2018-19, and will this exacerbate a semi-stationary rex block over the Bering / Chukchi? Stay tuned, but it seems quite possible. If the opening days of the alleged "refreeze" thread are any indicator, both PAC and ATL fronts will be in worst-ever conditions come springtime maximum.

I would also think that an abundance of FYI relative to normal in certain areas come spring 2019 will result in a drop like this year, but worse (recall when Kara and HB both poofed seemingly overnight, after enduring with very high albedos until that point).

PS: if DMI is correct it looks like we see no real extent gains through 10/7 due to continuing melt / compaction across both PAC and ATL fronts. Some gains toward Beaufort offset by the hoopla elsewhere. Wonder if we end up worse than 2012 soon?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Csnavywx on October 03, 2018, 05:52:17 AM
Can someone explain me how so much heat can intrude towards the N.Pole from the Pacific? How can that happen? Any specific mechanisms?

Something called an atmospheric wave break. In this case, it was a combination of a cyclonic wave break (Rossby wave breaking is a complex but important process in the atmosphere -- picture it somewhat analogous to a sea wave that breaks as it approaches shore) that was reinforced by moisture and heat flux from both ex-TC Trami and unusually high SSTs in the region. All of these contributed to it.

We have seen a propensity towards very large and anomalous ridges and heat flux into the high Arctic during the cold season in the last few years. The reason for this tendency is still under research -- though it's interesting to note that some model simulations (like Nakamura et. al's Blue Ocean experiment paper) have a strong tendency for height rises over the Arctic in autumn and winter and part of it has to do with the extra heat flux from the ocean and a coupling feedback from the stratosphere. That's probably not the whole story, but probably part of the puzzle.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 03, 2018, 06:07:26 AM
Officially have decent amount of second year ice that will survive in Foxe Basin. Refreeze now underway and should be mostly done in 10-14 days IMO. Very early / at that time the NRN reaches of HB should also begin to freeze.

Wonder if we officially see multi-year ice classified this time in 2019?

(https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS32SD/20181002180000_WIS32SD_0010257377.gif)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on October 03, 2018, 06:53:43 AM
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-10-02...
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on October 03, 2018, 07:14:42 AM
Can someone explain me how so much heat can intrude towards the N.Pole from the Pacific? How can that happen? Any specific mechanisms?

Something called an atmospheric wave break...

...We have seen a propensity towards very large and anomalous ridges and heat flux into the high Arctic during the cold season in the last few years. The reason for this tendency is still under research -- though it's interesting to note that some model simulations (like Nakamura et. al's Blue Ocean experiment paper) have a strong tendency for height rises over the Arctic in autumn and winter and part of it has to do with the extra heat flux from the ocean and a coupling feedback from the stratosphere. That's probably not the whole story, but probably part of the puzzle.

Thank you all for the answers!

It seems then that the warmer/less ice-covered/moister Arctic has a tendency to "suck in" warmer air from the mid-latitudes which is sort of a positive feedback: the warmer Arctic begets a warmer Arctic.

I wonder what that means for mid-latitude winters, since the past five years (with an ever warmer winter Arctic) the warm Arctic-Cold Continents theory has not really been true: other than bbr's favourite Quebec/Canada region, the continents were actually quite warm as seen on the attached chart:
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 03, 2018, 07:24:58 AM
With snowcover at all-time highs for this time of year across North America, an extremely early refreeze of HB appears very likely.
HB starts normal freezing in the last third of October, but an early start of the refreeze is still possible in the next two weeks. How likely - not sure. Extremely early - IMHO no.

Officially have decent amount of second year ice that will survive in Foxe Basin. Refreeze now underway and should be mostly done in 10-14 days IMO. Very early / at that time the NRN reaches of HB should also begin to freeze.

Wonder if we officially see multi-year ice classified this time in 2019?

(https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS32SD/20181002180000_WIS32SD_0010257377.gif)
According to the quite reliable UH AMSR2 3.125 data, the ice area in HB has been hovering at less than 100km2 in the last few days, very similar to the data in previous years. Is this a decent amount of soon-to-be second year ice? IMHO no.
Looking at the two orange locations in Worldview, with all due respect to the Canadian Ice Service I believe the ice they are referring to as having survived to be 2nd year is mostly not there, barring some few tendrils (except in the Fury and Hecla Strait fed by the CAA).
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 03, 2018, 09:21:01 AM
With snowcover at all-time highs for this time of year across North America, an extremely early refreeze of HB appears very likely.
HB starts normal freezing in the last third of October, but an early start of the refreeze is still possible in the next two weeks. How likely - not sure. Extremely early - IMHO no.

Officially have decent amount of second year ice that will survive in Foxe Basin. Refreeze now underway and should be mostly done in 10-14 days IMO. Very early / at that time the NRN reaches of HB should also begin to freeze.

Wonder if we officially see multi-year ice classified this time in 2019?

(https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS32SD/20181002180000_WIS32SD_0010257377.gif)
According to the quite reliable UH AMSR2 3.125 data, the ice area in HB has been hovering at less than 100km2 in the last few days, very similar to the data in previous years. Is this a decent amount of soon-to-be second year ice? IMHO no.
Looking at the two orange locations in Worldview, with all due respect to the Canadian Ice Service I believe the ice they are referring to as having survived to be 2nd year is mostly not there, barring some few tendrils (except in the Fury and Hecla Strait fed by the CAA).
It actually is there! It has been very cloudy but you can clearly see the ice in the eastern edges of Foxe Basin if you roll EOSDIS past few weeks. Some is evidently very thick. The Canadian ice chart guys know their stuff and if you go into their other maps you can see some of it, though now second-year ice, is still diluted down to 50-70% concentration (but with refreeze now starting in earnest, this will quickly turn to 100%).

Hudson Bay definitely has no extent, no argument there, but Foxe Basin's refreeze immediately precedes HB's, more often than not (I would think).

PS: tonight's 00z EURO is insane. We all know and acknowledge that 240 hours is way out there. But with the consistency of Beaufort + Bering + Chukchi blocking and SSTAs/etc off the charts, there is support for this. Nearly +20C 850s for 10/12 over the Beaufort, with a wide area +20Cish above average! It takes the recent pattern and just continues it.

According to the 00z EURO, the first major North American city of the winter to be buried will be Calgary, with up to three feet of snow expected on the ground by 10/12. At 12z, it forecast 20-24", so this number is trending up (for now).

How is that relevant to the freezing season? Do you know where the cold ISN'T? The Bering!

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018100300/ecmwf_T850_namer_11.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018100300/ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 03, 2018, 12:23:40 PM
Todays kerfuffled ecmwf waves and temps from windy.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: FishOutofWater on October 03, 2018, 01:22:28 PM
I think the salinity increase at 300m along the north continental slope of the CAA is real. There was a shift in the winds and the circulation of sea ice from cyclonic in July and early August to anticyclonic in September. The wind shift is best seen by watching the satellite loops of sea ice motion. Although the sea surface height gradient from the western Arctic ocean to the Labrador sea continues to push ice through the channels of the CAA, the general motion of the sea ice in the western Arctic ocean is clockwise now. Clockwise surface rotation tends to bring on upwelling on the north continental slopes of Alaska and the CAA.

I think the wind shift caused a coastal Kelvin wave of shoaling of warm salty Atlantic water from depths below 300m up to the 300m level. I have forgotten who suggested it was a Kelvin wave, but I think that's correct because shifts in wind regimes can cause coastal Kelvin waves.

Extraordinary amounts of warm salty Pacific water have been flowing towards the Barrow submarine canyon, but that water hasn't had the time to reach the CAA and loops show that that water may be rotating clockwise towards the Chukchi shelf margins, not the CAA. The warm water that's sinking in the Chukchi region will likely store heat in the water layers above 300m.

That's my best guess of what's happening now based on watching the sea ice rotation and Mercator ocean animations.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on October 03, 2018, 03:13:07 PM
Here are September average temps:

- Second warmest on record Arctic-wide, third time above zero (after 2006 and 2016)
- Pacific record warmest by far (1.722 vs 1.215 in 1995)
- Canadian coldest since 1997
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 03, 2018, 06:05:46 PM
Quote
third time above zero (after 2006 and 2016)
Hmmm, when I average the four quadrants (estimated) --  (-4.4 + .5 + .9 +1.8 )/4 -- I get -0.3
This is rather different from the +0.3 on the all-together-graph.  Where have I gone wrong? 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on October 03, 2018, 08:13:39 PM
Arctic-wide should be -0.337. I get updates by mail when something changes in the timeseries. It looks like this:

Quote
Changed:
- 2018  -16.675  -15.676  -17.386  -10.064   -4.536    3.415    6.100    5.056 -99
- 9.999 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999
... into:
+ 2018  -16.675  -15.676  -17.386  -10.064   -4.536    3.415    6.100    5.056   -
+ 0.337 -999.999 -999.999 -999.999

I got confused by that +.

I'll modify the post above.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: FishOutofWater on October 03, 2018, 09:46:27 PM
The cold and snow in western Canada combined with the heat in Alaska will reinforce the blocking pattern that we have seen in September. It still looks like a weak to moderate El Niño this winter so it could be very warm in Siberia for the winter - it's an El Niño thing.

If the CFSv2 is correct, and that's a big if, the cold anomaly in western Canada may move east as fall progresses into winter. Extremely stormy weather in California, Texas and the southern states of the U.S. can be expected in January through March. At the same time, the Arctic could be much warmer than normal, especially the Siberian side.

However the details work out odds favor another warm winter for Arctic sea ice.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 03, 2018, 10:55:26 PM
DMI North of 80 blips up.

(Yes, I know of it is somewhat limited value)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 03, 2018, 11:27:03 PM
DMI North of 80 blips up.

(Yes, I know of it is somewhat limited value)
Year over year. That is some heat in the ATL! And the entire PAC. However, there is VERY cold water along the AK shoreline, and HB / Labrador are also much colder than 365 days ago.

The area N of Svalbard where the Gulf Stream has evidently been erupting has grown substantially.

(https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticsst/nowcast/sst2017100112_2017100200_929_arcticsst.001.gif)

(https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticsst/nowcast/sst2018100112_2018100200_930_arcticsst.001.gif)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on October 03, 2018, 11:34:50 PM
Barrow is at -2C this morning under hours of clear skies. Barter Island at -1C. Not going to get much freezing done in this pattern. CAA will have to make up the difference.

Yes. Not much freezing in this part of Arctic and right up the Russian side.

But then again it isn't exactly the big Chinook and melt you were talking about 4 days ago either.  ;)

Wouldn't get too comfy. Downsloping flow doesn't really get going until late tonight and tomorrow over NW Alaska as the core of stronger southerly flow aloft shifts eastward from the Strait. Shows up particularly well on the 850 charts. Not much has changed from when this was a 96 hour forecast.

And it did deliver high temperatures through much of northern Alaska, later on Oct 1st.  :)
(as this image from Rick Thoman shows). Notable is the record Oct high of 58 F at Umiat.

Good to see the full network of stations as there are large changes over short distances. Alaska is vast and the number of usual metar reporting stations is quite small.
 
Notable too is that the high temps never reached the north shore, with maxes only just above freezing at Utqiagvik/Barrow, Deadhorse and Kaktovik. The cold Beaufort Sea still holding influence there.

Judging by recent sat pics, the snow extent in NE Alaska appears unchanged. Recent days have shown a considerable difference between the snowier NE Alaska and the rest of the state. The ice remains close to the NE of Alaska - the cold Beaufort SSTs and low angle sun limiting the effects of this large High Pressure bulge there.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Tealight on October 04, 2018, 01:05:32 AM
The remaining ice island in the Beaufort Sea is now right next to 6-7°C warm Chukchi Sea water. One storm is probably enough finally melt out everything.

Click on image for animation.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 04, 2018, 01:35:25 AM
DMI North of 80 blips up.

(Yes, I know of it is somewhat limited value)

Not that limited.  Looking more and more like a maritime climate...and even if the "cold" is only relative more and more like Warm Arctic Cold Continents.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 04, 2018, 02:06:00 AM
DMI North of 80 blips up.

(Yes, I know of it is somewhat limited value)
It's a good way of tempting A-Team to step back in!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Eco-Author on October 04, 2018, 03:30:05 AM
Sorry I don't recall which upper ranking person here asked us to broaden out our look at GW.  To me, we run the biggest risk should Greenland ever get hit with even a single Hurricane Harvey/Florence sized rain bomb deep into the Greenland cap.  If it did, we might end up seeing it 'flush out' massive amounts of ice.  The ice doesn't have to melt to raise sea levels drastically in a single year.  From my limited knowledge, I also see no reason that the ultra 30C+ warmth that was over Britain this past year due to a high can't sit over Greenland for a month.

Do we know if greenland or CAA experianced record rainfall this year??  Do we have any charts on the migration of extreme rain moving north that may one day be all it needs to take out the ice north of Greenland?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 04, 2018, 04:24:46 AM
The lack delay of refreezing in the CAB strikes me as one of those outliers that screams, "IT'S A WHOLE NEW PARADIGM!" Reminds me of the collapse in the summer of 2012, or the temperature spike xmas 2015, or the global extent decoupling from the pattern in Oct 2016, or the 3-peat 2014, 2015, 2016 global temperature records.

Atlantification and Pacification are now severe enough to significantly delay freezing. Interesting and scary times.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on October 04, 2018, 06:52:58 AM
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-10-03...
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 04, 2018, 07:11:16 AM
September 29 - October 3.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 04, 2018, 08:19:01 AM
September 29 - October 3.
It's amazing how the Beaufort "Little Blob" is still there, clinging to life.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 04, 2018, 09:26:31 AM
September 29 - October 3.
It's amazing how the Beaufort "Little Blob" is still there, clinging to life.
And it shows clearly the uptick of ice export down the Fram shown by Wipneus' graph on the PIOMAS thread,
And it shows clearly the advance of the ocean towards 80 degrees latitude on the Pacific front,
And it shows clearly the retreat of the ocean in the last 2 days along the Atlantic front.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 04, 2018, 10:33:12 AM
A rather slushy Atlantic ocean retreat.
Polarview this morning.
edit: It will probably get blown back tomorrow when the wind changes.
Tech note: contrast/brightness adjusted, clahe applied

Today's ecmwf waves and temps from windy.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Phil. on October 04, 2018, 03:42:59 PM
September 29 - October 3.
It's amazing how the Beaufort "Little Blob" is still there, clinging to life.

Calling it a 'Blob' now is a bit of a stretch.
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2018-10-04-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-1928768.495101541,507465.1448648144,-1506831.342994421,775623.9975593998 (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2018-10-04-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-1928768.495101541,507465.1448648144,-1506831.342994421,775623.9975593998)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Stephan on October 04, 2018, 05:49:50 PM
Should there be an additional "DMI north of 80" plot that is not centered around the North Pole but shifted somewhat SW direction CAA where the center of coldness actually seems to be ?!?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 04, 2018, 06:01:23 PM
Should there be an additional "DMI north of 80" plot that is not centered around the North Pole but shifted somewhat SW direction CAA where the center of coldness actually seems to be ?!?
To start with, there should be a "DMI north of 80" plot that actually uses an area-weighted average for its plot...
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Ned W on October 04, 2018, 06:05:03 PM
Should there be an additional "DMI north of 80" plot that is not centered around the North Pole but shifted somewhat SW direction CAA where the center of coldness actually seems to be ?!?
To start with, there should be a "DMI north of 80" plot that actually uses an area-weighted average for its plot...
Yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes. This!

WTF is the point of a spatial average that isn't area-weighted?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 04, 2018, 06:47:35 PM
I see no reason to see slow extent gain changing to average increases for the next week or so.
Tho 2018 year's September Arctic sea ice extent low did not reach as low as the "2010's"  September yearly average extent low, the very slow 2018 daily extent increase had tied the "2010's" daily extent, with over a week left in September. The still slowly increasing 2018 daily extent into October, is now a full one third of a million square kilometers less than the average extent of the "2010's".
It is NOT a coincidence that past 10(?) day's Arctic temperatures over millions of square miles above the 80th parallel are holding strong against average decreases & are presently 8+degC OVER the average..... with no direct solar energy being received at the North Pole.   
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: HapHazard on October 04, 2018, 10:09:35 PM
It's a good way of tempting A-Team to step back in!

I wish. R.I.P. A-Team.  :'(
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 04, 2018, 10:22:55 PM

It is NOT a coincidence that past 10(?) day's Arctic temperatures over millions of square miles above the 80th parallel are holding strong against average decreases & are presently 8+degC OVER the average..... with no direct solar energy being received at the North Pole.   
Open water reached well beyond 80 degrees North along the Atlantic Front, and therefore high temperature anomalies North of 80 are likely to slow refreezing. But for most of the Arctic temperatures North of 80 are irrelevant.
   
Surface area above Arctic Circle  million km2    21.046  (8.13 million sq miles)
Surface area above 80+ North    million km2          3.875  (1.50 million sq miles)

Mind you, the anomaly does show that the warmth coming from the Russian side has reached the North Coast of Greenland.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: be cause on October 04, 2018, 10:28:27 PM
a little more dmi 80 news . Today the top of the world , however measured , managed a full 10'C above the day's mean of near -14'C . This record-breaking run of 8 days polar warmth means temps are where they should have been 30 days ago . This event will end eventually .. b.c.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 04, 2018, 10:36:43 PM
Open water reached well beyond 80 degrees North along the Atlantic Front, and therefore high temperature anomalies North of 80 are likely to slow refreezing. But for most of the Arctic temperatures North of 80 are irrelevant.

I'll bite my tongue for now but I find the combination of DMI 80N and CAB extent very interesting.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 04, 2018, 10:56:06 PM
a little more dmi 80 news . Today the top of the world , however measured , managed a full 10'C above the day's mean of near -14'C . This record-breaking run of 8 days polar warmth means temps are where they should have been 30 days ago . This event will end eventually .. b.c.

GFS suggests that by next Wednesday the anomaly north of 80 will be +ve but much lower. In contrast the overall Arctic anomaly will increase from the current +2.9 to +4.1 Celsius.  The temperature reading North of 80 can therefore be downright misleading if applied to the Arctic as a whole.

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 04, 2018, 11:23:52 PM
Wrangel Island is exceptionally warm for this time of year. Four consecutive days (October 1-4), daily mean temperature was higher than maximal temperature in any October since 1926 when observations began.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Sterks on October 04, 2018, 11:28:25 PM
It's a good way of tempting A-Team to step back in!

I wish. R.I.P. A-Team.  :'(

What do you mean? Do you know the actual guy and he's gone? That'd be really sad.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 04, 2018, 11:56:34 PM
A-Team has stopped posting here in the past and then came back after a while. Here's to hoping for another comeback.
(And where the heck is Bob Wallace?)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 05, 2018, 12:50:18 AM
  The temperature reading North of 80 can therefore be downright misleading if applied to the Arctic as a whole.
But, when compared to comparable average High Arctic temperatures back to 1958, with no or nearly no direct solar irradiation involved, N80 degC temperatures mean bunches of splaying  temperatures...... above & way above average.
//////
Also:
Of the High Arctic temperatures between 1958 & 1977 AND between waning direct solar energy days, 230 to 300, no days have had as wide a gap of 8+(9degc?)degC above average, as the present period. Not only have the 1958 to 1977 period NOT had temperature spikes as high as the present, neither have they had connected & extended days of heat, as the present.     
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: be cause on October 05, 2018, 01:04:05 AM
a little more dmi 80 news . Today the top of the world , however measured , managed a full 10'C above the day's mean of near -14'C . This record-breaking run of 8 days polar warmth means temps are where they should have been 30 days ago . This event will end eventually .. b.c.

GFS suggests that by next Wednesday the anomaly north of 80 will be +ve but much lower. In contrast the overall Arctic anomaly will increase from the current +2.9 to +4.1 Celsius.  The temperature reading North of 80 can therefore be downright misleading if applied to the Arctic as a whole.


Indeed gerontocrat (can we call you Mr G ? )  .. but cold is hard to find anywhere atm unless you are a Canadian snowflake   ;).
 The area North of 80 hosts most of the sea ice in the N. Hemisphere just now and it is not getting a good start to what should be deep-freeze season . It looks as if the Arctic cold is backed up against N. Greenland and the ice can do nothing but dodge and weave the weather . This is not how I imagined the Arctic when I was a child ! b.c.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: colchonero on October 05, 2018, 03:50:43 AM
I think the refreeze should get going next week, by looking at forecasts (EC and GFS).
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on October 05, 2018, 05:32:43 AM
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-10-04...
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on October 05, 2018, 08:06:57 AM

Do we know if greenland or CAA experianced record rainfall this year??  Do we have any charts on the migration of extreme rain moving north that may one day be all it needs to take out the ice north of Greenland?


The rainfall in the arctic is so low as to be a desert. I wouldn't count on there ever being extreme rain sufficient to melt meters thick sea ice. To get rain there needs to be warm moist air colliding with cool air. That doesn't happen at the poles.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on October 05, 2018, 08:20:04 AM
I see no reason to see slow extent gain changing to average increases for the next week or so.
Tho 2018 year's September Arctic sea ice extent low did not reach as low as the "2010's"  September yearly average extent low, the very slow 2018 daily extent increase had tied the "2010's" daily extent, with over a week left in September. The still slowly increasing 2018 daily extent into October, is now a full one third of a million square kilometers less than the average extent of the "2010's".
It is NOT a coincidence that past 10(?) day's Arctic temperatures over millions of square miles above the 80th parallel are holding strong against average decreases & are presently 8+degC OVER the average..... with no direct solar energy being received at the North Pole.   

Because of exceptionally low ice in CAA, this should, according to a point by Jim Hunt a while back during rapid refreeze, result in more heat being vented to the atmosphere above the area where there is open water. According to Jim Hunt, the amount of open water (or lack thereof) in the fall before hard refreeze affects how much heat is able vent from the ocean, with more open water facilitating increased discharge of heat from the ocean, which is a good thing. Such discharged heat can then escape from the atmosphere as heat does rather than being trapped under a layer of prematurely frozen ice.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on October 05, 2018, 05:43:39 PM
Doesn't the heat in the ocean prevent the refreeze? Part of the process is the formation of the Mixed layer as the top part of the ocean turns over and allows the heat to escape? Freezing happens when the heat can be lost through conduction rather than convection.

I'd guess that it's not so much that the early ice formation prevents heat from escaping, it's that excess heat in the ocean has to escape before ice can form, and, at a guess, the anomalous warm weather we are seeing in the Arctic is because the ocean is still warm and heating the atmosphere.

The end result will be late refreeze and less FDDs to thicken the ice.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 05, 2018, 05:49:52 PM
The end result will be late refreeze and less FDDs to thicken the ice.
Good point. The freezing season has not started well. Hopefully it will not follow in the footsteps of 2016/7 all the way to April, or the Arctic will have to dodge another fat bullet in 2019.

(https://drive.google.com/uc?id=0B1HTR0ONiUmEMFZiLWwxUW15QUk)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Eco-Author on October 05, 2018, 08:48:03 PM
Watching the blow torch heat waves heading to the arctic these last couple years, it seems that its averaging about once a month??  This past spring was the first I noted the Jetstream going from 'splitting' to just outright separated into two.  During the beast from the east, it traveled backwards from far eastern Siberia to London. Hard to imagine what's next, and now we've got a brewing El Nino
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Sterks on October 05, 2018, 09:04:26 PM
The end result will be late refreeze and less FDDs to thicken the ice.
Good point. The freezing season has not started well. Hopefully it will not follow in the footsteps of 2016/7 all the way to April, or the Arctic will have to dodge another fat bullet in 2019.

(https://drive.google.com/uc?id=0B1HTR0ONiUmEMFZiLWwxUW15QUk)

Yes Spring 2017 turned out to be colder than expected, the reason number 1, I think, was the snow anomaly in the highest latitudes of Siberia. And wasn't that anomaly influenced by a "warm & wet" Arctic Winter that received numerous Atlantic storms?
The chicken and the egg problem, the same I find with the "late refreezing" problem. Is it because there's a lot of ocean heat venting or because the Arctic keeps receiving extra warmth that was not there years ago?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 05, 2018, 09:37:01 PM
Ocean heat will probably take longer to vent with warmer than normal incoming winds. Waves also probably discourage overturning.
edit: Windy ecmwf tempwave forecast oct5-14 (decided wave forecast was more relevant)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on October 05, 2018, 09:49:45 PM
I see no reason to see slow extent gain changing to average increases for the next week or so.
Tho 2018 year's September Arctic sea ice extent low did not reach as low as the "2010's"  September yearly average extent low, the very slow 2018 daily extent increase had tied the "2010's" daily extent, with over a week left in September. The still slowly increasing 2018 daily extent into October, is now a full one third of a million square kilometers less than the average extent of the "2010's".
It is NOT a coincidence that past 10(?) day's Arctic temperatures over millions of square miles above the 80th parallel are holding strong against average decreases & are presently 8+degC OVER the average..... with no direct solar energy being received at the North Pole.   

Because of exceptionally low ice in CAA, this should, according to a point by Jim Hunt a while back during rapid refreeze, result in more heat being vented to the atmosphere above the area where there is open water. According to Jim Hunt, the amount of open water (or lack thereof) in the fall before hard refreeze affects how much heat is able vent from the ocean, with more open water facilitating increased discharge of heat from the ocean, which is a good thing. Such discharged heat can then escape from the atmosphere as heat does rather than being trapped under a layer of prematurely frozen ice.

as long as the air is barely cooler than the water there is not much venting. water is around zero and air temps over open water are around zero over large areas, changing daily of course.

further as i replied to neven earlier, look at the last 2 freezing seasons. there was a lot of open water and the refreeze was among the lowest exactly as was the sea-ice maximum.

so this theory no matter where it comes from, does not hold IMO, at least not under current conditions (warmer and warmer air and water  world wide) and at least not so simply put.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on October 05, 2018, 09:50:52 PM
Ocean heat will probably take longer to vent with warmer than normal incoming winds. Waves also probably discourage overturning.
edit: Windy ecmwf tempwave forecast oct5-14 (decided wave forecast was more relevant)

yes, my post is kind of a ninja post, sorry but i replied before i got to yours ;)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 05, 2018, 10:49:46 PM
I see no reason to see slow extent gain changing to average increases for the next week or so.
Tho 2018 year's September Arctic sea ice extent low did not reach as low as the "2010's"  September yearly average extent low, the very slow 2018 daily extent increase had tied the "2010's" daily extent, with over a week left in September. The still slowly increasing 2018 daily extent into October, is now a full one third of a million square kilometers less than the average extent of the "2010's".
It is NOT a coincidence that past 10(?) day's Arctic temperatures over millions of square miles above the 80th parallel are holding strong against average decreases & are presently 8+degC OVER the average..... with no direct solar energy being received at the North Pole.   

Because of exceptionally low ice in CAA, this should, according to a point by Jim Hunt a while back during rapid refreeze, result in more heat being vented to the atmosphere above the area where there is open water. According to Jim Hunt, the amount of open water (or lack thereof) in the fall before hard refreeze affects how much heat is able vent from the ocean, with more open water facilitating increased discharge of heat from the ocean, which is a good thing. Such discharged heat can then escape from the atmosphere as heat does rather than being trapped under a layer of prematurely frozen ice.
This theory is incorrect also the CAA has retained more ice this year than any other this millennium (maybe even longer)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 05, 2018, 11:35:08 PM
Ocean heat will probably take longer to vent with warmer than normal incoming winds. Waves also probably discourage overturning.
edit: Windy ecmwf tempwave forecast oct5-14 (decided wave forecast was more relevant)
Thanks, this format is more easily readable.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 06, 2018, 01:42:24 AM
This is beginning to look serious:

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on October 06, 2018, 05:41:37 AM
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-10-05...
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Rob Dekker on October 06, 2018, 06:58:25 AM
Here is an interesting report :

The Chukchi Sea is really warm this year, which results in a record late prediction of the onset of freezing there :

Quote
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, has released the 2018 experimental projected onset of sea ice freeze-up on the Chukchi Sea continental shelf.

Projection: Freeze onset on the Chukchi Sea continental shelf northwest of Icy Cape will begin the second week of December 2018. This is approximately 47 days later than the long-term mean (1981-2016).

The onset metric is defined by sea-ice concentration reaching 30% as determined by passive microwave observations and is based on in situ ocean temperature measurements.

https://www.arcus.org/files/news-items/files/experimental_projected_onset_of_freeze_-_chukchi_sea_continental_shelf_in_2018.pdf

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 06, 2018, 07:59:04 AM
October 1-5.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: meddoc on October 06, 2018, 10:05:53 AM
This unusual Spike has to be something rapid, not just Heat from the Arctic Ocean+ Transport from Subtropics.
I'm guessing the open Beaufort/ Chukchi are amplifying by releasing a lot of CH4.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/soundings/iasi/m2/t2/D1/mr_ch4.070.gif
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/soundings/iasi/m1/t2/D1/mr_ch4.070.gif
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on October 06, 2018, 10:40:18 AM
This unusual Spike has to be something rapid, not just Heat from the Arctic Ocean+ Transport from Subtropics.


But it WAS heat imported from the midlatitudes. We knew a few days ago that this was going to happen, no surprises here. Just look at the pic from Oct 4, the huge warmth incursion circled in red explains everything.
We also know from the forecasts that it is over, so 80N temps will probably cool pretty fast the next few days
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 06, 2018, 10:59:13 AM
October 1-5.
It's amazing. We are into October and the inner basin refuses to seriously freeze anywhere. The only growth is occurring in the Greenland Sea and the Beaufort export terminals. The only real freezing is occurring in the sheltered CAA. Hopefully this will soon be over, but it's still disturbing.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: AmbiValent on October 06, 2018, 11:28:22 AM
October 1-5.
It's amazing. We are into October and the inner basin refuses to seriously freeze anywhere. The only growth is occurring in the Greenland Sea and the Beaufort export terminals. The only real freezing is occurring in the sheltered CAA. Hopefully this will soon be over, but it's still disturbing.
Could it be said that the freezing itself would be on schedule if changed atmospheric and ocenanic patterns wouldn't just keep on pushing in heat essentially from outside the Arctic? (Which in earlier times would have remained outside the Arctic)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 06, 2018, 01:31:05 PM
I remember Jim Hunt stating a year or two ago.....

My ears are burning! I don't suppose you have a link to the comment(s) where I supposedly stated such a thing do you?

In case it helps I do remember posting this link a couple of years ago (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1611.msg90609.html#msg90609):

http://mallemaroking.org/arctic-ocean-sensible-heat-loss/

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmallemaroking.org%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F06%2FHeat_transport_Edited.gif&hash=e6fb2b57b7040bc646d2c5566618fbb1)

Quote
Remember that is just one component and not the full heat budget - which is partially why it is inappropriate. For the full budget we have to include latent heat flux, long wave radiation, short wave radiation, energy changes through state changes when ice grows and decays, and so on. Also large heat fluxes lead to rapid sea ice growth which then insulates the ocean from further heat loss.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: FishOutofWater on October 06, 2018, 02:43:06 PM
El Cid is quite right. An enormous dome of heat was lifted into the Arctic from the central Pacific by a breaking wave in the jet stream. This year exceptional heat in the north Pacific is amplifying blocking highs. What happens in the far north Pacific and Atlantic oceans frequently ends up in the Arctic. Over the past 3 winters heat advected from the Atlantic and Pacific has kept Arctic fall and winter temperatures much above normal. Clearly, the heat that has been transported by ocean currents into the Barents and Chukchi seas also warms the arctic.

The major stratospheric warming last February was the most obvious factor in last year's cold spring. It increased the snowfall in eastern North America and western Europe.

Obviously, more open water in the Arctic in the dark months increases potential heat loss, but it is just one factor. The import of atmospheric water vapor from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans decreases radiative heat loss. Storms and clouds decrease heat loss. If ice free areas in the Arctic are cloudy and stormy, less heat will radiate to space.

Strong winds tend to increase ocean mixing. Large waves also increase mixing and heat transfer to the atmosphere and they can pulverize sea ice.

We're dealing with a complex system in the Arctic. Attempts to oversimplify the complexity lead to misunderstandings.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 06, 2018, 02:57:00 PM
The first Autumn 2018 thickness indications from CryoSat-2 via CPOM:

http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 06, 2018, 03:44:12 PM
October 1-5.
It's amazing. We are into October and the inner basin refuses to seriously freeze anywhere. The only growth is occurring in the Greenland Sea and the Beaufort export terminals. The only real freezing is occurring in the sheltered CAA. Hopefully this will soon be over, but it's still disturbing.

Yes...and riveting.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 06, 2018, 03:46:40 PM


We're dealing with a complex system in the Arctic. Attempts to oversimplify the complexity lead to misunderstandings.

Thank you.

My tendency to discount what a person says here is inversely proportional to the certainty by which they make their declarations.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Stephan on October 06, 2018, 07:34:18 PM
October 1-5.
I wonder whether this little (remains of multi year?) ice floe N of Alaska in the W Beaufort Sea will survive until re-freeze starts in that area?!?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 06, 2018, 07:48:43 PM
WTF this is starting to get out of hand. obviously it is about to take a serious dive, but at this super early point, I think it is already reasonable to assume this freezing season will be super weak
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 06, 2018, 08:44:09 PM
The chukchi sea refreeze looks set to be terrible. the sst is between 5-10 C, and is the warmth likely has some depth to it. as for the bering refreeze....what refreeze? it will probably be super limited, almost inconsequential. with el nino conditions coming on, record GHG concentrations, record ocean temps...2019 seems set up for a serious catastrophic melt. Then 2020 will see the effects and the world collectively say...OOPS.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 06, 2018, 09:02:43 PM
..... at this super early point, I think it is already reasonable to assume this freezing season will be super weak
Don't know if present 10degC over average High Arctic temps guarantee low ice for the coming cold season. But, this present leap from average High Arctic temps seems strongly connected to the surge of High Arctic temperatures that began 2 years ago & maybe 3 years ago, during times of no or little direct solar energy in the Arctic.
Two years ago, near our present date, High Arctic temperatures spiked to about 8+ to 9 degC over average but appeared they would settle down towards about 4degC over average. But a set of quickly fluctuating temperatures as high as 9degC over average occurred, until a final record busting spike of 19-20degC over average shocked the Arctic. All this jumpiness & record breaking occurred in ~ 50 days. The next 40-50 days could prove very interesting.
Now, High Arctic temperatures, during times of no or little direct solar energy, have been rising steadily above average in the High Arctic for 60 years, double the rate of temp climb of the Earth average. But, this two (or 3) year leap, during times of no direct solar energy is crushing the past High Arctic doubling rate for those 60 years.
& all this is occurring, during the time that the sun has had a 12 year low radiation level.     
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on October 06, 2018, 09:34:18 PM
DMI SST anomaly October 3 2017 vs 2018:

edit: I just saw I have Oct 2 2016 in my archive as well...
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on October 06, 2018, 11:18:49 PM
Squeezed in a blog post on this before the PIOMAS numbers get updated: Freezing season has started, or has it? (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2018/10/freezing-season-has-started-or-has-it.html)

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on October 06, 2018, 11:36:55 PM
October 1-5.
It's amazing. We are into October and the inner basin refuses to seriously freeze anywhere. The only growth is occurring in the Greenland Sea and the Beaufort export terminals. The only real freezing is occurring in the sheltered CAA. Hopefully this will soon be over, but it's still disturbing.
Could it be said that the freezing itself would be on schedule if changed atmospheric and ocenanic patterns wouldn't just keep on pushing in heat essentially from outside the Arctic? (Which in earlier times would have remained outside the Arctic)

no offense meant but my first thought was something like, if there were no global warming the ice would keep it's typical volume and extent.

of course you are literally right but then this IF > THEN is not the case hence the reasoning sounds kind of obsolete even though true.

tell me where i got it wrong if so, i'm listening, just sharing my initial thought while reading your post.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: FishOutofWater on October 07, 2018, 12:08:08 AM
The scientific literature reports that heat is not transported through the Bering strait. There is summer water in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas, but Pacific water was not found to transport heat to the Arctic ocean. That clearly is not the case this year.

Here's a link to the 30m temperature animation since July 1 this year. Heat is entering the Arctic from the Pacific through the Bering strait and it's going to be stored in the Pacific water layer below the surface. It will affect melting seasons in the years to come. It is too deep to lose it's all its heat over this winter. This is something new, beyond recent the report about heat that has been stored by sinking summer water in the Chukchi sea.

http://bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr/en/permalink/PSY4/animation/3/20180701/20181004/1/2

If we start the animation from July 1 last year, we see a push of summer water into the Arctic through the Bering strait, but nothing like what we're seeing now in terms of heat transport into the Arctic ocean.

http://bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr/en/permalink/PSY4/animation/3/20170701/20181004/1/2
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Davidsf on October 07, 2018, 05:28:40 AM
Thanks for the good blog post Neven
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on October 07, 2018, 08:17:37 AM
DMI SST anomaly October 3 2017 vs 2018:

edit: I just saw I have Oct 2 2016 in my archive as well...

I don't get it. Atlantification is stronger than ever (more open water on the ATL front up North), yet SST was much higher in 2016 and 2017 on the Atlantic side than in 2018. Currently we do not even have very strong positive SST anomalies in the N ATL and yet we have more open water than ever. How come???
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Stephan on October 07, 2018, 08:54:24 AM
Maybe the big amount of ice that had been pushed from the CAB direction Svalbard in Spring 2018 which completely melted used up all energy so that the temperature anomaly is much lower than in 2017 or 2016 (→ we may see a complete freeze over N of Svalbard and FJL this winter??)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Cid_Yama on October 07, 2018, 11:17:44 AM
We had no Fram transport all summer long, but it's making up for it now.

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_n_running_mean_amsr2_previous.png
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: FishOutofWater on October 07, 2018, 03:48:56 PM
Careful analysis of Mercator ocean cross sections and animations led me to conclude that warm salty water wrapped into the coastal area near the tip of Greenland, then was cooled by intense storms and cold air, last winter and early spring. Oceanic deep convection was intense after the major stratospheric warming drove cold air towards the Labrador sea and the far north Atlantic.

Summer and early fall cool SST anomalies south of Greenland are indicative of a shallow warm fresh layer that has been disturbed by storms. And amplified flow of cool water from the CAA through the Labrador sea into the north Atlantic. Cold SST anomalies in the late winter and early spring are indicative of weak deep convection, not summer temperatures.

Apparently a major reason that warm Atlantic water was moving into the Arctic from 2005 through 2012 was a weak overturning circulation. Instead of heading for the Greenland and Labrador seas, warm salty water headed up the coast of Norway for the Arctic ocean.

There's a recent report that deep convection in the Greenland sea has increased as ice has decreased on the continental shelf edge. Salty water is now able to penetrate the shelf then cool and sink.

There are probably other reasons that the Atlantic side of the Arctic ocean is apparently cooler than it was a few years ago. One may be that it's actually warmer at depth in parts of the Barents sea region. Stormy weather directs more water to the right of the Fram strait towards Murmansk and the Barents sea. Stormy weather prevents warm surface layers from building up, but the subsurface is warmed by mixing.

There's a lot going on. I await reports from professional oceanographers to make sense of it all.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 07, 2018, 05:34:35 PM
DMI SST anomaly October 3 2017 vs 2018:

edit: I just saw I have Oct 2 2016 in my archive as well...

I don't get it. Atlantification is stronger than ever (more open water on the ATL front up North), yet SST was much higher in 2016 and 2017 on the Atlantic side than in 2018. Currently we do not even have very strong positive SST anomalies in the N ATL and yet we have more open water than ever. How come???

There was quite a bit of compaction over the past couple of weeks. The low SST anomalies would suggest a rapid refreeze could be possible but the resurgent Fram export may inhibit the formation of ice north of Svalbard.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on October 07, 2018, 06:03:36 PM


Apparently a major reason that warm Atlantic water was moving into the Arctic from 2005 through 2012 was a weak overturning circulation. Instead of heading for the Greenland and Labrador seas, warm salty water headed up the coast of Norway for the Arctic ocean.....



I had to  reread thrice all what you have written and it makes a lot of sense but I still have a question if you have the time to answer it:
 
Why would a weaker AMOC lead to more transport up Norway instead of Labrador?

***

On another note, it seems that another heatwave is heading towards the Pole, this time from the Atlantic side (i know, i know it is still in T+8 days fantasyland but still...attached)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Eco-Author on October 07, 2018, 06:12:13 PM
Isn't there a 963mb GAC tomorrow??
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 07, 2018, 06:18:29 PM
I see no reason to see slow extent gain changing to average increases for the next week or so.
Tho 2018 year's September Arctic sea ice extent low did not reach as low as the "2010's"  September yearly average extent low, the very slow 2018 daily extent increase had tied the "2010's" daily extent, with over a week left in September. The still slowly increasing 2018 daily extent into October, is now a full one third of a million square kilometers less than the average extent of the "2010's".
With present High Arctic temperatures averaging 10degC over the historical satellite average, Arctic sea ice increases continue lethargically, the gap to the present "2010's Arctic sea ice" average widening again to 440,000 square kilometers LESS.
Ice in the heat heat heat is hard to harden.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: be cause on October 07, 2018, 08:42:32 PM
Isn't there a 963mb GAC tomorrow??
fairer perhaps to call it a lac .. a little Arctic cyclone .. or by duration , a sac .. short Arctic cyclone . b.c.  :)


 ..
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Brigantine on October 07, 2018, 09:22:26 PM

Why would a weaker AMOC lead to more transport up Norway instead of Labrador?
My understanding of that:

1) Overturning happens when the surface water becomes (slightly) denser than the intermediate water beneath it
2) Weaker OC implies a water column that is less dense (particularly in the surface layer)
3) This further implies a higher sea surface height (more like a less pronounced depression in SSH)
4) Gradients in sea surface height influence ocean currents, particularly in areas where the sea bed is at ~500m depth - such as the ridges from Iceland towards the SW (along the Mid Atlantic Ridge), and to the Faroe Islands, and also the entrance to the Barents Sea and the ridge NW of Svaalbard

So all else equal a stronger OC in the Sub-Polar Gyre (S tip of Greenland) pulls more of the ex-gulf stream water in the Iceland/Faroe Islands region towards Iceland and spiraling into the SPG, instead of towards the Faroe Islands and up the Norwegian coast. Stronger OC in the area around Jan Mayen pulls more warm(ish) water into that gyre instead of into the West Spitzbergen Current and the Barents Sea.

Conversely, a weaker AMOC in both gyres allows more ex-gulf stream water into the Arctic and Barents.

Basically that ~500m deep ridge from Scotland to Iceland, and SW along the MAR, is a perfect switch that responds to small changes in water density in the deep water regions surrounding it. In deeper water, currents are perpendicular to SSH gradients like wind following isobars, but in shallow water currents can just go from high SSH to low SSH.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on October 07, 2018, 09:39:19 PM
Thank you!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on October 07, 2018, 09:44:06 PM
DMI SST anomaly October 3 2017 vs 2018:

edit: I just saw I have Oct 2 2016 in my archive as well...

I don't get it. Atlantification is stronger than ever (more open water on the ATL front up North), yet SST was much higher in 2016 and 2017 on the Atlantic side than in 2018. Currently we do not even have very strong positive SST anomalies in the N ATL and yet we have more open water than ever. How come???

let's say you put a glass of water with ice cubes on a table in summer and wait, even though temps in summer are very high, the water will be around 0C in that glass for a long time.

what i want to say is that a lot of ice is missing on the atlantic side and that without significant export in summer, that means that a big part of that missing ice has melted and of course the waters in that region suffer from the melt, consider the north atlantic ice-cooled so to say.

after all winds and currents see to a certain distribution IMO and yes it's only a fraction of the entire system and all it's feedbacks but something along this line would make sense.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 07, 2018, 10:27:41 PM
Just your casual October  :o
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 08, 2018, 01:14:54 PM
Ascat, day261-280 (2.2MB)
The pack is still very mobile.
Some signs of refreeze on the ice edge (maybe wind driven slush or snow on thin ice)
Export of thicker ice continues into the CAA.
Export accelerates into the Fram Strait.
Open water north of SZ continues. (Less damping effect on storms running up the Barents into the Laptev)
tech note: images enhanced - brightness/contrast, clahe, unsharp mask

edit: Refreeze in Mackenzie Bay
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Pagophilus on October 08, 2018, 03:16:55 PM
Returning after long travels and checking in again here I was struck by two things.  First, the ice minimum in September corresponded with what most experts and cooler heads on this forum thought it would be.  We waste a lot of time during the summer rebutting wild predictions that are poorly supported by evidence.  Second, the current state of the ice is jaw-dropping to me, and shows the inherent complexity and unpredictability (especially on the time scale of months) of the Arctic ice system.  Many important things can happen to the ice, and concentrating so much on the September minimum seems to me to be an overly limited focus.

Uniquorn, thank you for your superb animations and summary, as always.  What is most striking to me from your first animation is how the CAB ice is continuing to hold its minimum borders.  This seems to be partly because there is so much ice being squeezed out of the Fram (as you and others have commented).  That exported ice is doomed to melt next summer, so it looks like little ice so far has formed in the CAB to replenish the stocks of multi-year ice in the CAB.  So the (relatively small) increases in overall area or extent at present tend to mask the seriousness of the situation for the long-term condition of the CAB. 

Just passing on general thoughts here -- if they are obvious to you, or already discussed, then please accept my apologies.

Ascat, day261-280 (2.2MB)
The pack is still very mobile.
Some signs of refreeze on the ice edge (maybe wind driven slush or snow on thin ice)
Export of thicker ice continues into the CAA.
Export accelerates into the Fram Strait.
Open water north of SZ continues. (Less damping effect on storms running up the Barents into the Laptev)
tech note: images enhanced - brightness/contrast, clahe, unsharp mask

edit: Refreeze in Mackenzie Bay
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 08, 2018, 03:25:05 PM
Wipneus compactness chart.
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional

ESRL ice and snow thickness forecast oct7-14. (thanks to Dryland)
https://floe.keytwist.net/esrl-daily-forecasts/2018-10-07
edit-replaced with 8bit to stop dithering
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: FishOutofWater on October 08, 2018, 05:36:05 PM
My understanding of the weak overturning leading to increased flow of Atlantic water into the Barents sea and Arctic ocean was improved by reading a real climate post by Stephan Rahmsdorf. It cleared up much of my confusion on the topic. He refers to recent papers in the scientific literature  about what has been happening in the far north Atlantic.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/04/stronger-evidence-for-a-weaker-atlantic-overturning-circulation/
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: AmbiValent on October 08, 2018, 05:41:47 PM
Is the ice in Fram Strait right now old ice or newly frozen ice?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 08, 2018, 06:01:54 PM
My understanding of the weak overturning leading to increased flow of Atlantic water into the Barents sea and Arctic ocean was improved by reading a real climate post by Stephan Rahmsdorf. It cleared up much of my confusion on the topic. He refers to recent papers in the scientific literature  about what has been happening in the far north Atlantic.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/04/stronger-evidence-for-a-weaker-atlantic-overturning-circulation/

It wasn't clear to me reading that that they were measuring a slowdown rather than a movement (change of place).  It seemed to me that the only real data demonstrated that there was less water flowing in a particular region.  It also seems to me that we over the last few years have noticed considerable changes in the extreme North-East Atlantic.

Is the AMOC actually slowing down, or is it just changing location?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: FishOutofWater on October 08, 2018, 07:04:19 PM
Well, it depends on the definition of the of the AMOC whether it's changing locations or slowing down. That's one reason that making sense of the literature is so difficult. There are multiple measures and definitions of the AMOC used by different authors. I have been trying to find the specific paper that discusses the increase in the Arctic inflow that may have taken place in response to reduced Labrador sea deep water formation, but I have lost track of it.

However, I have found another interesting paper based on detailed measurements that convection has increased in the Greenland sea over the past 2 decades. This shift in where convection is taking place will affect sea surface height gradients and the strength of the current flowing northwards along the Norwegian continental shelf margin.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/16000870.2018.1476434
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 08, 2018, 10:57:55 PM
As noted upthread, 963hPa cyclone today, dragging warm air across open water north of SZ.
Today's ecmwf waves from windy.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: be cause on October 08, 2018, 11:50:06 PM
another record breaking day for the dmi 80'N+ .. again some 10'C above normal . This was the 13th consecutive record breaking day .. probably a record record ? The Arctic as a whole continues to warm but over the next few days it will cool down a little N of 80'+ . The transfer from melting to freezing season will continue to be slow .. b.c.

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 09, 2018, 03:16:27 AM
Well, it depends on the definition of the of the AMOC whether it's changing locations or slowing down...

At least I am right to think that it isn't so cut and dried, right?  (As soon as they turned to global models for justification my eyes sort of glazed over)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Wherestheice on October 09, 2018, 05:41:09 AM
My understanding of the weak overturning leading to increased flow of Atlantic water into the Barents sea and Arctic ocean was improved by reading a real climate post by Stephan Rahmsdorf. It cleared up much of my confusion on the topic. He refers to recent papers in the scientific literature  about what has been happening in the far north Atlantic.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/04/stronger-evidence-for-a-weaker-atlantic-overturning-circulation/

It wasn't clear to me reading that that they were measuring a slowdown rather than a movement (change of place).  It seemed to me that the only real data demonstrated that there was less water flowing in a particular region.  It also seems to me that we over the last few years have noticed considerable changes in the extreme North-East Atlantic.

Is the AMOC actually slowing down, or is it just changing location?

The AMOC might not be slowing down at all according to this study
https://www.washington.edu/news/2018/07/18/atlantic-ocean-circulation-is-not-collapsing-but-as-it-shifts-gears-global-warming-will-reaccelerate/
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on October 09, 2018, 10:18:04 AM
Is the ice in Fram Strait right now old ice or newly frozen ice?

Looks like export on Worldview with some nilas filling in between the floes at higher latitudes
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 09, 2018, 12:02:34 PM
Polarview, middle of the ESS arm, yesterday.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 09, 2018, 01:04:45 PM
Amongst other things the latest edition of Arctic Sea Ice News (https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2018/10/september-extent-ties-for-sixth-lowest/) includes the latest ice age data. Note that:

Quote
These images are based on an updated soon-to-be-released version of the current sea ice age product and a near-real-time version for 2018.

Credit: M. Tschudi, S. Stewart, University of Colorado, Boulder, and W. Meier, J. Stroeve, NSIDC
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Phil. on October 09, 2018, 02:31:58 PM
Also the corresponding ice age map
(https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2018/10/Figure5a.png)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 09, 2018, 04:42:21 PM
Also the corresponding ice age map
(https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2018/10/Figure5a.png)

The scary part is that the older ice has just lifted off the CAA and been set adrift in the CAB.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 09, 2018, 05:31:10 PM
The scary part is that the older ice has just lifted off the CAA and been set adrift in the CAB.

Because this means that the ice is mobile enough to export...like happened in weeks 39 and 40  :-\
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on October 09, 2018, 09:45:56 PM
U. Hamburg has stopped updating their daily false colour ice concentration maps, so I have been unable to make and post the gifs showing changes through the week. Presuming the satellite coverage is not good enough to make them now, moving into the dark season.

Currently 59 mb of MSLP difference Across the Arctic Basin, with a 968 storm towards the Atlantic side and 1027 mb on the Pacific side. So it will be quite windy at the moment.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on October 09, 2018, 10:49:43 PM
"U. Hamburg has stopped updating" Bremen? (https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser/#day=8&month=9&year=2018&img={%22image%22:%22image-1%22,%22sensor%22:%22AMSR%22,%22type%22:%22nic%22,%22region%22:%22Arctic%22})
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Ned W on October 09, 2018, 11:29:39 PM
Presuming the satellite coverage is not good enough to make them now, moving into the dark season.

They're based on passive microwave radiometry, right?  So not actually affected by dark vs light.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 09, 2018, 11:53:26 PM
They're based on passive microwave radiometry, right?  So not actually affected by dark vs light.

Right! And the Bremen concentration maps seem to be available now.

Whilst over there I also noticed the news that the proposed Copernicus Imaging Microwave Radiometer (AKA Sentinel 9) now has its own web site:

https://cimr.eu/
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 10, 2018, 02:40:23 AM
Decision time. Either the CAB starts refreezing, or it's going into unknown territory.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: kiwichick16 on October 10, 2018, 03:20:16 AM
@  Oren......WOW!!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 10, 2018, 03:24:29 AM
....the gap to the present "2010's Arctic sea ice" average widening again to 440,000 square kilometers LESS. Ice in the heat heat heat is hard to harden.
With High Arctic days of 10degC over-average temperatures, the ho hum yearly September low 2018 sea ice has rapidly switched places with other years of lower sea ice including 2007. 2018 Arctic sea ice is 550,000 square kilometers LESS than the to-date "2010's sea ice average". 2018 now has more to-date sea ice than ONLY the year 2012, which had a spectacular loss of sea ice, much going away due to fortuitous winds that drove ices into the North Atlantic.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: be cause on October 10, 2018, 03:51:23 AM
I say ' Unknown territory' it is then Oren .. records continue to tumble up north ..
 
gfs tonight has gone red again as our long-lived Leslie makes her contribution to Arctic heat and moisture .. and finds herself back in the same spot at the end of the run ready to do it all again !..

Leslie may yet become the longest lived cyclone in Atlantic history .

The run of record low dmi 80 figures and the record run of low extent growth figures may both extend from the present14 days to 21 .. and 2018 will really be 'out on her own ' by any and every measure .

meanwhile 150,000 km2 of our precious apparent growth since minimum is actually good ice gone down the plug hole that is the Greenland sea . Plenty more looks set to join it .

all these may's .. and it's only October .. b.c.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: miki on October 10, 2018, 04:24:34 AM
And temp north of the 80th doesn't look is going to nose dive, yet.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 10, 2018, 06:23:04 AM
Decision time. Either the CAB starts refreezing, or it's going into unknown territory.
The CAB actually is having some minimal refreezing. But the export machine has gone into overdrive. The heart of the ice N of Greenland 30 days ago is now located somewhere southwest of Svalbard and heading for what is probably rapid death in the Greenland Sea.

That thick MYI has been exported over ocean water that has heat, at depth. I would say it is a catastrophic event for volume. And it has also led to the continued retreat of the front across the rest of the ATL / Laptev.

DMI is too generous on thickness but it illustrates this well if you animate.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/anim/index.uk.php

With continued major LP forecast for the ATL front this looks to *continue* for the foreseeable future. Extreme heat dominates on the PAC side as well, with a snow-free Alaska (probably due to the scorching Bering SSTs) further aiding what has become the most extreme autumnal +500MB event in the satellite record. We are simply blowing away 2012.

If DMI is correct, we see no appreciable extent gains through the 14th. It seems likely 2012 becomes #2 at some point soon if this is near correct.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 10, 2018, 06:48:53 AM
Not good! Neven's refreeze is fake news! Fake news!!!  8) 8) 8)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018101000/gfs_mslpaNorm_nhem_19.png)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on October 10, 2018, 09:23:34 AM
Not good! Neven's refreeze is fake news! Fake news!!!  8) 8) 8)


Winter IS coming. ECMWF says that from this(1st image) we will get to the 2nd image in 10 days, a good 5-7 degrees lower on average at least at 850hPa.

The big question is of course: are we transitioning to a new climate mode (huge low pressure zones and storms above the Arctic, sucking in warm air from the midlatitudes, keeping the Arctic fairly warm, not letting the ice freeze, which keeps the stormy weather alive/low pressure systems in a feedback loop)?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 10, 2018, 09:30:47 AM
October 3-9.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Cid_Yama on October 10, 2018, 11:09:07 AM
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png

Looks like it's going down the Fram drain.

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_n_running_mean_amsr2_previous.png
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: pauldry600 on October 10, 2018, 11:47:06 AM
If things dont improve quick we will be meeting 2012 in less than a week and saying goodbye
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 10, 2018, 12:32:01 PM
Just to clarify that the chart Aluminium posted is wipneus' area chart. Extent didn't dip significantly yesterday.
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional

edit:it was a poor clarification
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 10, 2018, 02:33:23 PM
Safe to say that what is currently happening in the CAB is unprecedented. The real question is where will we be a month from now. Historically, the CAB is essentially frozen over in a month.

Absolutely riveting.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 10, 2018, 02:58:17 PM
The big question is of course: are we transitioning to a new climate mode (huge low pressure zones and storms above the Arctic, sucking in warm air from the midlatitudes, keeping the Arctic fairly warm, not letting the ice freeze, which keeps the stormy weather alive/low pressure systems in a feedback loop)?

Are you suggesting that the southern wall of the Arctic Polar Cell is breaking down?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on October 10, 2018, 04:38:03 PM
The big question is of course: are we transitioning to a new climate mode (huge low pressure zones and storms above the Arctic, sucking in warm air from the midlatitudes, keeping the Arctic fairly warm, not letting the ice freeze, which keeps the stormy weather alive/low pressure systems in a feedback loop)?

Are you suggesting that the southern wall of the Arctic Polar Cell is breaking down?

I do not know. There are many people here who know much much more about the climate than me. I am just curious and I have long thought that eventually we are going to see a big and more or less permanent low pressure zone above the Arctic which will change the climate of the NH
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Stephan on October 10, 2018, 04:39:00 PM
Decision time. Either the CAB starts refreezing, or it's going into unknown territory.
Another graph in which the pen now writes a line on previously untouched areas (see also Global Sea Ice Extent Graph)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 10, 2018, 05:24:58 PM
The big question is of course: are we transitioning to a new climate mode (huge low pressure zones and storms above the Arctic, sucking in warm air from the midlatitudes, keeping the Arctic fairly warm, not letting the ice freeze, which keeps the stormy weather alive/low pressure systems in a feedback loop)?

Are you suggesting that the southern wall of the Arctic Polar Cell is breaking down?

I do not know. There are many people here who know much much more about the climate than me. I am just curious and I have long thought that eventually we are going to see a big and more or less permanent low pressure zone above the Arctic which will change the climate of the NH

The Polar Vortex is a big and more or less permanent (in Winter) low-pressure zone above the Arctic, but it is my understanding that it is mostly stratospheric.  (Not something I know much about, really.)

I do note that there is currently a cyclone that reaches from ground level to at least 250hPa just north of Greenland...

The question in my mind would be, does the air for this cyclone come primarily from north of 60 degrees, or does it come mostly from further south?

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 10, 2018, 06:16:23 PM
Pretty obvious that the thickest ice is now finding an easy path out of the CAB through the CAA.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 10, 2018, 06:48:37 PM
With the ridiculously warm 2m temperatures in the CAB, I was wondering about the temperature of the ice. Here are the surface temps of the ice for the past 4 years. 2018 is much warmer. What does this mean, if anything?

Here is the data source.

http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-temperature/

It is very annoying that when you copy the image, the temperature markers on the bar do not copy. You can see them on the site.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Eco-Author on October 10, 2018, 07:12:04 PM
Anytime you're ahead of a Super El Nino year globally its bad! 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 10, 2018, 07:21:16 PM
I don't like the global SIE graph. It obscures what is going on in the Arctic.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 10, 2018, 07:32:12 PM
Pretty obvious that the thickest ice is now finding an easy path out of the CAB through the CAA.
Hycom ice thickness is similar. 0917-1009 (Quite a lot of 0m coastal ice though)
edit:worked on the gif a bit
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 10, 2018, 07:35:06 PM
I don't like the global SIE graph. It obscures what is going on in the Arctic.

In some ways I agree with you because of the obvious see-saw between the two, but the Global ice is our best handle on what is happening Globally.

When the second max started failing it was time to start panicking.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on October 10, 2018, 08:00:34 PM

It is very annoying that when you copy the image, the temperature markers on the bar do not copy. You can see them on the site.

which is why i recommend screenshots, one can crop them perfectly easy and often they use less
serverspace.

example below, of course one can zooom first to increase size ;)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: harpy on October 10, 2018, 08:42:30 PM
How much extent gain has taken place in the arctic thus far exactly?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: be cause on October 10, 2018, 08:45:04 PM
perhaps worth a listen for anyone who can .. BBC radio 4 .. 9pm this evening .. Costing the earth .. Helen Czerski's Arctic expedition .. 6 weeks at the North Pole . also available now on bbc iplayer .. b.c.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: LDorey on October 10, 2018, 09:15:17 PM
Pretty obvious that the thickest ice is now finding an easy path out of the CAB through the CAA.
Hycom ice thickness is similar. 0917-1009 (Quite a lot of 0m coastal ice though)
edit:worked on the gif a bit

holy Fram export Batman... I saw 150,000km2 in a post above, but looking at this animation that number seems number low... the CAB flat lining makes a lot more sense...

*grumble* I've seen Fram exports graphs before but can't find them, can someone point me in the right direction? thanks.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 10, 2018, 10:02:18 PM
The hycom animation is a model and might exaggerate Fram export a little. ASCAT is probably a better representation, though you have to assess the ice thickness for yourself.
ascat, CAA and Fram, day250-282.
Worldview, greenland sea, oct9
Close examination of worldview over recent days will show some of the greenland sea ice is refreeze.

Wipneus posts fram export charts on the piomas thread
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 10, 2018, 11:44:01 PM
Quote
I've seen Fram exports graphs before but can't find them
Wipneus posts them from time to time in the PIOMAS thread.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: be cause on October 11, 2018, 01:26:35 AM
holy Fram export Batman... I saw 150,000km2 in a post above, but looking at this animation that number seems number low... the CAB flat lining makes a lot more sense...

*grumble* I've seen Fram exports graphs before but can't find them, can someone point me in the right direction? thanks.
[/quote]

Hi LDorey ..
my 150,000 sqKm was the increase in Greenland sea extent since minimum ..extrapolated from the Greenland sea ice graph which can be found by clicking on ASI graphs above in top right corner of every page and going to regional graphs ..

 I would be interested to know how much ice is thought to have left the Arctic via the CAA channels in the same period . b.c.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 11, 2018, 12:09:14 PM
While 10degC over-average temperatures have covered millions of square kilometers around the North Pole, Greenland Ice Sheet temperatures have been below average. Appears that some of the Ice Sheet cold has slipped into the seas northeast of Greenland. Despite down slope warming, the flow of atmospheric cold remains sub-average & a thin stream of that recent Greenland cold made a beeline to the North Pole. The High Arctic air temperatures now are fluttering up & down. 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 11, 2018, 02:16:22 PM
Speaking of Freezing Degree Days:

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: NeilT on October 11, 2018, 08:04:36 PM
How much extent gain has taken place in the arctic thus far exactly?

Most of it has been outside 80N.  The whole Atlantic front and the Laptev bite continuing to grow is driving that chart.

It will drop eventually, the Atlantic side finally seems to be heading back south again.  The most important thing about that graph is not how much ice growth there has been but how weak the ice will be come the 2019 melting season.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 12, 2018, 12:59:08 AM
I thought refreeze in the Beaufort was going to take hold, but it doesn't look so convincing over the last two days.
Worldview, Beaufort oct10-11
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 12, 2018, 01:41:15 AM
I thought refreeze in the Beaufort was going to take hold, but it doesn't look so convincing over the last two days.
Worldview, Beaufort oct10-11
On the plus side, we finally have a reincarnation of "Big Block" to track into 2019...!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 12, 2018, 03:31:29 AM
Greenland Ice Sheet temperatures have been below average. Appears that some of the Ice Sheet cold has slipped into the seas northeast of Greenland...the flow of atmospheric cold remains sub-average & a thin stream of that recent Greenland cold made a beeline to the North Pole. The High Arctic air temperatures now are fluttering up & down.
For the last 20+ days High Arctic average temperatures have been 9-10+ degC over average. Now with that thin beeline cold funneling directly to the North Pole, High Arctic temperatures have dropped to 8degC over average.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 12, 2018, 05:58:09 AM
so far we are all posting in the wrong thread
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 12, 2018, 07:05:02 AM
October 7-11.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 12, 2018, 09:16:33 AM
Finally, actual freezing in the Laptev sector.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: meddoc on October 12, 2018, 09:58:41 AM
This Season we are gonna be lucky if the Bering gets any Ice on the Arctic Ocean Side...
That, coupled with El Nino is terrible, horrible, very, very bad, no good for 2019 Melt Season.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 12, 2018, 10:37:00 AM
Finally, actual freezing in the Laptev sector.
But on the other hand look at the sea ice concentration in the Arctic north of 85. I attach Univ Bremen false colour images Oct 11 and Oct 7.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Alexander555 on October 12, 2018, 11:07:13 AM
This Season we are gonna be lucky if the Bering gets any Ice on the Arctic Ocean Side...
That, coupled with El Nino is terrible, horrible, very, very bad, no good for 2019 Melt Season.

In 2012 there was plenty of ice in the bering, sounds like a risky prediction to me. Probably it want be thick, but what kind of coldspell would it take to cover the bering in a wide layer of ice ? Maybe a good idea to watch the polar vortex. Probably it want take that much time to put a thin layer on top of the ocean. If you look at that area just north of Greenland, that had some open water pretty late in winter. And it was still covered with ice most of the summer. It only took a short periode of time to refreeze. Of course, that's a very cold area, but you don't need that much time to get some big differences.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: FishOutofWater on October 12, 2018, 02:32:50 PM
The problem on the Bering side is the unprecedented heat flux into the Arctic. Warm, moderatly salty Pacific water has flowed into the Arctic then descended to the 30m to 100m level, below the fresh water layer caused by Siberian river influx.

There's a rapidly growing amount of heat in the Pacific water layer above the Atlantic water layer which is shoaling as freshwater is flowing out of the Arctic through the CAA and the Fram strait.

The present weather and ocean current patterns are increasing the heat content of the Arctic ocean. Sooner or later depending on late spring and summer weather patterns the increasing heat will lead to a record below 2012 and the heat will continue to retard sea ice recovery in the dark months.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 12, 2018, 03:01:21 PM
October 7-11.

Clear evidence of freezing on the edges near the Laptev.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 12, 2018, 06:54:14 PM
Appears that some of the Ice Sheet cold has slipped into the seas northeast of Greenland. Despite down slope warming, the flow of atmospheric cold remains sub-average.....
After some of the cold moved off the Greenland Ice Sheet to the northeast, a warm front replaced it on the eastern half of the Ice Sheet.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/ds/gfs_arc-lea_t2anom_3-day.png
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 12, 2018, 07:45:38 PM
The problem on the Bering side is the unprecedented heat flux into the Arctic. Warm, moderatly salty Pacific water has flowed into the Arctic then descended to the 30m to 100m level, below the fresh water layer caused by Siberian river ...
This has the sense about it as being a change in system-state - that increased base enthalpy present  the Bering and Chukchi may have tipped them over into a new climate regime. 

The next few months may be definitive. If the Bering in particular continues at the low levels of area over winter, the heat budget it has will be altered radically by way of increased capture of spring insolation.  This may be a precursor to tip over.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Stephan on October 12, 2018, 07:47:44 PM
If this becomes true, it should be named "Abrupt Climate Change" for Bering and Chukchi Sea.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 12, 2018, 08:06:52 PM
If this becomes true, it should be named "Abrupt Climate Change" for Bering and Chukchi Sea.
Very much so. Even now, even with shorter days, because of the lack of ice cover both of those seas are still picking up isolation and downwelling longwave radiation.

That radiation is not enough to stop the refreeze, but is a very substantial increase to the seas annual heat capture.

Meanwhile, outgoing heat out of the atmosphere is limited by physics and *can't* increase except in smaller increments determined by temperatures in the upper atmosphere.  As a metaphor, we are increasing the flow of water into a tub without changing the size of the drain.

Further,  that feedback is self reinforcing (to a limit);  increases in energy capture will tend to increase the rate at which it is captured, year over year.  I have no timeframe to suggest, but this is a disturbing trend.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Davidsf on October 12, 2018, 09:24:18 PM
jdallen, very interesting. I had assumed in late October that solar radiation was no longer a significant factor. Thank you.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 12, 2018, 10:01:01 PM
The problem on the Bering side is the unprecedented heat flux into the Arctic. Warm, moderatly salty Pacific water has flowed into the Arctic then descended to the 30m to 100m level, below the fresh water layer caused by Siberian river ...
This has the sense about it as being a change in system-state - that increased base enthalpy present  the Bering and Chukchi may have tipped them over into a new climate regime. 

The next few months may be definitive. If the Bering in particular continues at the low levels of area over winter, the heat budget it has will be altered radically by way of increased capture of spring insolation.  This may be a precursor to tip over.

The attached graphs show the extent to which the Bering and Chukchi are changing from icy seas to open water seas. The Bering story is about winter, the Chukchi story is about summer.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: harpy on October 12, 2018, 10:15:33 PM
If this becomes true, it should be named "Abrupt Climate Change" for Bering and Chukchi Sea.
Very much so. Even now, even with shorter days, because of the lack of ice cover both of those seas are still picking up isolation and downwelling longwave radiation.

That radiation is not enough to stop the refreeze, but is a very substantial increase to the seas annual heat capture.

Meanwhile, outgoing heat out of the atmosphere is limited by physics and *can't* increase except in smaller increments determined by temperatures in the upper atmosphere.  As a metaphor, we are increasing the flow of water into a tub without changing the size of the drain.


How much radiation is absorbed in October versus the summer months?

You indicate that this amount of absorbed radiation is "very substantial".  Can you please back up your claim with some evidence?

Thank you.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 12, 2018, 10:32:03 PM
100 wm2ish. It is not insignificant.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 12, 2018, 10:39:11 PM
Average Arctic sea ice VOLUME for October 1, for the period 1980-89, was ~15,200 cubic kilometers. Present October 1, 2018 sea ice VOLUME is ~ 5100 cubic kilometers, ~ 10100 cubic kilometers LESS than the 1980-89 average for October 1. Energy needed to melt 10100 cubic kilometers of ice is ~ 31 times the annual U.S. consumption of energy.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: FishOutofWater on October 13, 2018, 03:39:02 AM
I think that the effect warm air advection into the Arctic increasing clouds and downwelling radiation is a major uncertainty in modelling future Arctic conditions.

https://www.adv-sci-res.net/14/139/2017/asr-14-139-2017.html

 Received: 11 Jan 2017 – Revised: 27 Apr 2017 – Accepted: 28 Apr 2017 – Published: 01 Jun 2017

Abstract. Trends and variability of the Arctic sea ice extent depend on various physical processes, including those related to changes in radiative fluxes, which are associated with cloudiness and water vapour and, in turn, with the atmospheric moisture transport over the Arctic. Aim of this work was: (i) to extract seasonal spatial patterns of the co-variability between the sea ice concentration (SIC) and the surface downwelling longwave radiation (SDL) in the Arctic Ocean during the 1982–2009 period; and (ii) to estimate the correlation coefficients between these patterns and the indices associated to some climate oscillation modes (AO, NAO, PNA, PDO and AMO). Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) was the main technique used in this study. Among our results, we highlight two areas of maximum co-variability SIC/SDL centered over the Barents Sea in winter and over the Chukchi Sea in summer. In addition, some statistically significant correlations (at 95%) between the spatial patterns of co-variability and climate oscillation indices were assessed, e.g. with PDO and AMO in November–January, with NAO and AMO in May–July, and with PNA in August–October.


Several articles is have scanned indicate that downwelling radiation has the largest impact in the spring months. September sea ice extent isn't very sensitive to winter longwave radiation differences. Of course, that might change as winter warms and ice thins.
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1915118K
 Abstract
The Arctic region has warmed rapidly over the last decades, and this warming is projected to increase. The uncertainty in these projections, i.e. intermodel spread, is however very large and a clear understanding of the sources behind the spread is so far still lacking. Here we use 31 state-of-the-art global climate models to show that variability of May downwelling radiation (DLR) in the models' control climate, primarily located at the land surrounding the Arctic ocean, explains 2/3 of the intermodel spread in projected Arctic warming under the RPC85 scenario. This variability is related to the combined radiative effect of the cloud radiative forcing (CRF) and the albedo response due to snowfall, which varies strongly between the models in these regions. This mechanism dampens or enhances yearly variability of DLR in the control climate but also dampens or enhances the climate response of DLR, sea ice cover and near surface temperature.

At this point I think it's too soon to know if we are reaching a tipping point on the Alaskan side of the Arctic, but we have seen some stunning changes the past 3 years.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: harpy on October 13, 2018, 04:30:20 AM
100 wm2ish. It is not insignificant.

How does the area under the curve compare for the different latitudes?

 I can try to eyeball it but perhaps someone with direct knowledge could give me a hint?

Apologies if this is a stupid question, maybe this belongs in the stupid questions thread.

Thanks.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on October 13, 2018, 10:48:20 AM
I think that the effect warm air advection into the Arctic increasing clouds and downwelling radiation is a major uncertainty in modelling future Arctic conditions.


As far as I understand, cloud effects are a major source of uncertainity in all climate modelling. I read a good paper on this but I cant find it right now.

Keeping the above in mind, the oversimplified way I understand the Arctic is this: by having more open water, there is more evaporation, more cloudiness in the Arctic, which keeps it warmer in the winter (than before) and cooler in the summer. Also, storms are stronger and more "energized" due to this, and this leads to the Arctic periodically sucking in warmth from midlatitudes, and spinning out cold, snowy air. This leads to a more volatile Arctic and midlatitude climate, both more snowy but also on average warmer.

Meanwhile, according to ECMWF the next 3-5 days are going to be still very warm in the CAB as warem air is arriving from Scandinavia...
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: John_The_Elder on October 13, 2018, 08:32:17 PM
Eyeballing would be easiest, using the color legend with the graph or advanced calculus with a calculator or abacus :) JTE
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 13, 2018, 08:41:34 PM
I find it interesting that the 365-day mean air temperature is barely cold enough to freeze sea ice.  How warm is the water under that ice?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 13, 2018, 08:49:56 PM
The 365-day anomaly is rather interesting too in that there seems to be a band somewhat colder than historical just below the very warm Arctic.  WACCy weather.  (Given the cold spots in the North Atlantic and in the South Pacific, is there any chance this is at least in part a latitude thing?)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 14, 2018, 01:01:23 AM
The 365-day anomaly is rather interesting too in that there seems to be a band somewhat colder than historical just below the very warm Arctic.  WACCy weather.  (Given the cold spots in the North Atlantic and in the South Pacific, is there any chance this is at least in part a latitude thing?)
It is because shifting AMOC / NPAC pattern is putting Canada in the "snow zone" and it is now snowing and sticking for much longer each year versus only a few years ago (and even against 1971-2000 climo).

Here is a GIF of Arctic SST shifts from 2012 to 2018. Look at the displacement! The NPAC has gone nuclear while the ATL is cooling rather consistently. I see no reason why the changes of the past six years won't continue or accelerate through 2024 which means that we will probably see continued limited cooling in Okhotsk and Beaufort, significiant ongoing cooling in Hudson and Baffin Bays and the Labrador Seas, and worsening warmth in the northern Okhotsk, Bering, Chukchi, ESS, Laptev, and Barentz.

The shift the past six years is the difference in 20C worth of monthly temps in some months for many regions. I worry that another six years could easily yield "increasing patches of perennial snowcover" in growing splotches of the Canadian Shield with worsening ensuing negative impacts for sea ice (oh, and humans!).

(https://media.giphy.com/media/THlpVh3bJvP5sSuj8Y/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 14, 2018, 02:17:53 AM
The shift the past six years is the difference in 20C worth of monthly temps in some months for many regions.

Can you give some examples? This strikes me as quite hyperbolic.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 14, 2018, 02:41:26 AM
The shift the past six years is the difference in 20C worth of monthly temps in some months for many regions.

Can you give some examples? This strikes me as quite hyperbolic.
Sorry it is only 10C worth of monthly temp differential, my b! (At least it was in September -- some months it can be greater).

PS just went back -- looks like Jan 2018 was over 20C warmer than Jan 2012 in spots of the Bering.


Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 14, 2018, 04:21:14 AM
100 wm2ish. It is not insignificant.
Thank you for saving me some time.

Remember, to be significant, the energy being added does not need to be enough to prevent a refreeze.  The problem is cumulative, rather than acute.  We are steadily increasing the net enthalpy of the Arctic and surrounding oceans.  It is a dire problem.  It will take centuries to dump the heat we're accumulating, if we ever can.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: FishOutofWater on October 14, 2018, 04:24:37 AM
There has been an anomalous vortex around Greenland for the past 180 days. It's causing the Arctic ocean to lose fresh water to the Labrador sea.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 14, 2018, 04:25:46 AM
I think that the effect warm air advection into the Arctic increasing clouds and downwelling radiation is a major uncertainty in modelling future Arctic conditions.
<snippage>
At this point I think it's too soon to know if we are reaching a tipping point on the Alaskan side of the Arctic, but we have seen some stunning changes the past 3 years.
It is without question a serious uncertainty.  It's part of why we really can't use a single year, or even two or three consecutive years to skillfully predict the rate at which the ice is going to decline.  We can only elucidate *direction* which is down.

I think we are in the midst of the transition to a new regime.  It hasn't tipped, but the moment is in the wrong direction for us to halt it.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 14, 2018, 04:28:25 AM
The 365-day anomaly is rather interesting too in that there seems to be a band somewhat colder than historical just below the very warm Arctic.  WACCy weather.  (Given the cold spots in the North Atlantic and in the South Pacific, is there any chance this is at least in part a latitude thing?)
I think what you are seeing is evidence of the breakdown of the polar cell, and the export of cold air it previously sequestered breaking out into lower latitudes, while being replaced by much warmer and moister inflows.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: sark on October 14, 2018, 05:20:16 AM
The 365-day anomaly is rather interesting too in that there seems to be a band somewhat colder than historical just below the very warm Arctic.  WACCy weather.  (Given the cold spots in the North Atlantic and in the South Pacific, is there any chance this is at least in part a latitude thing?)
I think what you are seeing is evidence of the breakdown of the polar cell, and the export of cold air it previously sequestered breaking out into lower latitudes, while being replaced by much warmer and moister inflows.

That describes part of the process.  here's an interesting article with some more detail.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/22/one-of-the-most-bizarre-ideas-about-climate-change-just-got-more-support/

This is the kind of thing Paul Beckwith has no problem pronouncing without reference to data on his video blogs (which I think are great, because they are so unconstrained). In his story, once the situation becomes a warm arctic surrounded by cold continents, the circulations reverse.  The Beaufort gyre and transpolar drift operate in reverse, sucking in the Gulf Stream and yielding the sort of Arctic where crocodiles and cycads can thrive.

It's helpful to remember that the signal of a WACC pattern is so far showing up in the anomalies, because of course it does.  The freakin polar cell is falling apart.  What else could it seem like?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 14, 2018, 05:56:24 AM
The 365-day anomaly is rather interesting too in that there seems to be a band somewhat colder than historical just below the very warm Arctic.  WACCy weather.  (Given the cold spots in the North Atlantic and in the South Pacific, is there any chance this is at least in part a latitude thing?)
I think what you are seeing is evidence of the breakdown of the polar cell, and the export of cold air it previously sequestered breaking out into lower latitudes, while being replaced by much warmer and moister inflows.

That describes part of the process.  here's an interesting article with some more detail.

<snippage>
The thing is, it's not really colder continents - its cold exported from the Arctic - and the increased snowfall is actually an artifact of *more* rather than less heat.  You can't have the increased snowfall without increased water vapor, and you can't have increased water vapor without increased heat. Pure physical chemistry, nothing exotic here.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 14, 2018, 07:49:40 AM
October 9-13.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on October 14, 2018, 08:52:15 AM
Warm Arctic, Cold Continents is a great catchphrase but it is not true. Athough at first (2006-2011) it seemed that a warming Arctic does not lead to warmer continents it has changed since.

During 2006-11 average winter arctic temps were 1,8 C above 1980-2000 averages, Europe was somewhat warmer, NA was 0,5 C colder, and Siberia was about 1 C colder. This period gave rise to the phrase WACC

During 2012-2018 however, when Arctic warming was much stronger: 3,1 C warmer than average, both Europe and NA was obviously warmer than the averages (chart 1)

Within that period (though I know it is to short, but changes are happening so fast) the last 3 years (2016-2018, chart 2) when winter arctic anomalies reached +4,2 C, the continents were much warmer, more than 1 C.

So I do not buy the WACCy theory, because I see the exact opposites: the warmer the arctic, the warmer the continents
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on October 14, 2018, 08:59:24 AM
...And if we take an even bigger step back, and take a look at 2007-2018 vs the averages of the 20th century, then the picture is even more clear. The "warmth" is spreading from the north towards the south
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: meddoc on October 14, 2018, 09:08:11 AM
...And if we take an even bigger step back, and take a look at 2007-2018 vs the averages of the 20th century, then the picture is even more clear. The "warmth" is spreading from the north towards the south

This Image is reminiscent of what IPCC Worst Case Projections looked like.
And for 2050.

And it's here. Now.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on October 14, 2018, 11:55:03 AM
Looks like extent gains are finally beginning to get going in the CAB

Oct 13th - Oct 11th
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: echoughton on October 14, 2018, 12:16:39 PM
I find it interesting that the 365-day mean air temperature is barely cold enough to freeze sea ice.  How warm is the water under that ice?

Why do I always see that question? I wonder if there are any monitoring devices up there? Whatever happened to that camera on Buoy 14? Last I clicked on it I saw a shot from 2 years ago! Why doesn't Neven send a team of crack Sea Ice Forum members up inside 80N and answer some of these questions for us? He's sitting there warm in his mansion...LORD knows where....collecting all the loot generated by this world-class forum, and does nothing to answer these nagging quesions: What is the temperature of the water 753 fathoms under that ice-flow off Ellsemere? How many healthy Polar bears are frolicking in Franz Josephland?
Just send Juan and Jim and Fishoutofwater (PLEASE!) and Wip and Geronimo and set them up with a few tents and a stack of firewood up on some ice-flow circling the CAB, and they can do the rest. Let's get some answers!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 14, 2018, 12:26:52 PM
I find it interesting that the 365-day mean air temperature is barely cold enough to freeze sea ice.  How warm is the water under that ice?

Why do I always see that question? I wonder if there are any monitoring devices up there? Whatever happened to that camera on Buoy 14? Last I clicked on it I saw a shot from 2 years ago! Why doesn't Neven send a team of crack Sea Ice Forum members up inside 80N and answer some of these questions for us? He's sitting there warm in his mansion...LORD knows where....collecting all the loot generated by this world-class forum, and does nothing to answer these nagging quesions: What is the temperature of the water 753 fathoms under that ice-flow off Ellsemere? How many healthy Polar bears are frolicking in Franz Josephland?
Just send Juan and Jim and Fishoutofwater (PLEASE!) and Wip and Geronimo and set them up with a few tents and a stack of firewood up on some ice-flow circling the CAB, and they can do the rest. Let's get some answers!
And after the Arctic is sorted out (shouldn't take long), a quick trip to the Antarctic to show the British Antarctic Survey at the University of Cambridge how it should be done.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on October 14, 2018, 12:29:24 PM
In the ESS and north Laptev the water [beneath the ice] is cold enough to freeze (http://bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr/en/permalink/PSY4/animation/3/20180901/20181014/7/1)
Using firefox I ctrl+ to 200% and set the speed at 200ms
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Alexander555 on October 14, 2018, 01:16:06 PM
...And if we take an even bigger step back, and take a look at 2007-2018 vs the averages of the 20th century, then the picture is even more clear. The "warmth" is spreading from the north towards the south

Just theoretically ofcourse, but normaly it spreads from the equator to the poles.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 14, 2018, 01:25:04 PM
...And if we take an even bigger step back, and take a look at 2007-2018 vs the averages of the 20th century, then the picture is even more clear. The "warmth" is spreading from the north towards the south

Just theoretically ofcourse, but normaly it spreads from the equator to the poles.
Probably should have said 'the increase in warmth'

Quite clear above parts of the cab today. Worldview viirs brightness temperature, band15day gives some indication of surface temperature and the state of the ice. Some of the warmer areas will be cloud.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 14, 2018, 02:49:02 PM
The 365-day anomaly is rather interesting too in that there seems to be a band somewhat colder than historical just below the very warm Arctic.  WACCy weather.  (Given the cold spots in the North Atlantic and in the South Pacific, is there any chance this is at least in part a latitude thing?)
I think what you are seeing is evidence of the breakdown of the polar cell, and the export of cold air it previously sequestered breaking out into lower latitudes, while being replaced by much warmer and moister inflows.

That was my interpretation.  Just not ready to declare it as a fact.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 14, 2018, 02:51:06 PM
So I do not buy the WACCy theory, because I see the exact opposites: the warmer the arctic, the warmer the continents

The continents are only cold in comparison, not colder.  They are not warming as fast as the Arctic Ocean.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 14, 2018, 03:05:09 PM
That describes part of the process.  here's an interesting article with some more detail.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/22/one-of-the-most-bizarre-ideas-about-climate-change-just-got-more-support/

I notice that the proposed notion of WACCy is that the Arctic is warming faster than the continents, and the skeptics are saying that the continents are not getting colder.  There seems to be a disconnect there.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: JayW on October 14, 2018, 04:26:13 PM
The RAMMB/CIRA slider now has some VIIRS imagery from the Suomi and JPSS-1 satellites. It's not resolution isn't on offer with worldview, but it does allows for sub-daily imagery, as it uploads a new image roughly every 51 minutes.  It should prrpe fun in boreal summer, but for now, it's useful for tracking storms.  In clear conditions, the ice surface can also be picked up.

I chose a water vapor band.
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=jpss&z=1&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=northern_hemisphere&p%5B0%5D=15&x=16432&y=15824
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 14, 2018, 04:31:40 PM
Aggregating DJF 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 when the nuances of each year have been very different, particular, & a step by step evolution from each previous year, is kind of disingenuous.

In any case, 17-18 was generally cold in DJF with specific areas of warmth still present in areas like the Southwest US.

Another nuance is that contrary to El Cid's assertion, in 17-18, the highest latitude land areas in the Arctic *were* much warmer than in 16-17 (and vs. normal), and this was accompanied by consistent severe cold in Hudson Bay, much of Canada, and large parts of Asia (you can see that cold is now extending in both directions across the Atlantic due to the NATL cool pool + Greenland vortex while the Arctic PV was breaking off into both NW Siberia and Hudson Bay).

We are going to see this trend continue into 2018-2019. While parts of the Arctic are going into the freezer both literally and relatively vs. normal this year (Canada, bit of Siberia, Kamchatka, Mongolia, Himalayas), parts are now scorching well beyond any previous record. The Chukchi, Bering, Laptev, and Barentz  actually ALL share this feature re: warmth, with records continuously set all over the place.

The FRAM export the past several days has resulted in a major Greenland Sea ice discrepancy with most recent years, with 2018 now being in the lead. The way this occurred seemed to be unprecedented. We have lost a huge chunk of volume through both the CAA & Greenland Sea, but the question is, what happens next? How much is quickly melted by the Gulf Stream's northernmost tendrils (probably a lot)? And does any actually make it past the southern tip of Greenland?

If the last 12 months are any indicator, the Baffin / Labrador front is going to be extremely impressive this winter, and the Hudson refreeze should be mostly complete by 11/15. The cold in Baffin and Labrador is already very impressive vs. normal and ice formation is racing down from the MYI on Nares (with FYI also now forming on shorelines).

Will the Bering Strait freeze at all this year? We are two months and one week from solar minimum and the entire area is blazingly hot. Worse than 2016 or 2017. Evidently the bottom water has now given out as well. With the amount of Pacific water that has intruded into Chukchi and the western Beaufort, those spots will be harder-pressed to freeze vs. last winter as well.

I think one of the major implications of the situation in Bering is what is happening in HB / Baffin / Labrador. The shift since 2012 is remarkable and worsening. And if Wrangel Island is basking in occasional 50s into January and February, evidently cold becomes severely and significantly displaced to its SE into the US and Canada.

How much of the deficit of Bering / Chukchi will Okhotsk, Baffin, and Labrador make up in 2018-19? I don't think it will be enough to offset a record high minimum (combined with Laptev / everything else high latitude except Beaufort & CAA), but I think we will be surprised by how far the front advances this year, especially off the East Coast of Canada. With this fall's anomalies presenting as they have, I would not be shocked to see record #s blown away for Labrador Sea, and maybe even the Greenland Sea if it advances far enough. With so much heat in the Bering (and at depth), I think we could see a similar situation in the Sea of Japan as well.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 14, 2018, 04:42:57 PM
That describes part of the process.  here's an interesting article with some more detail.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/22/one-of-the-most-bizarre-ideas-about-climate-change-just-got-more-support/

I notice that the proposed notion of WACCy is that the Arctic is warming faster than the continents, and the skeptics are saying that the continents are not getting colder.  There seems to be a disconnect there.
Well, do you look at the whole year or just a season?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 14, 2018, 04:51:28 PM
That describes part of the process.  here's an interesting article with some more detail.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/22/one-of-the-most-bizarre-ideas-about-climate-change-just-got-more-support/

I notice that the proposed notion of WACCy is that the Arctic is warming faster than the continents, and the skeptics are saying that the continents are not getting colder.  There seems to be a disconnect there.
Well, do you look at the whole year or just a season?

I'd look at both since I am expecting both WACCy and equable.  I'd look at what is happening all year near 60 degrees North to see if the Polar Cell is breaking down creating WACC, and I'd look at what is happening in Winter to see what is going on with water vapor and the potential for an equable climate.

What happens in Summer only becomes interesting when the Ice Cap approaches 0.

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 14, 2018, 04:57:42 PM
Here is 9/1-30 -> 10/1-11. It is nice because you can see how and why the pattern is evolving as it is over Canada (IMO).

The continental albedo feedback is now like a steamroller over Canada, making a beeline for the core of the warmth over the southeast part of the continent. The end for summer approaches rapidly across North America, but not the Bering or Chukchi! LOL

(https://media.giphy.com/media/A7ZQRdiu6Cgeqdgbcp/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 14, 2018, 07:34:49 PM
Quote
If the last 12 months are any indicator, the Baffin / Labrador front is going to be extremely impressive this winter, and the Hudson refreeze should be mostly complete by 11/15. The cold in Baffin and Labrador is already very impressive vs. normal and ice formation is racing down from the MYI on Nares (with FYI also now forming on shorelines). 

Will the Bering Strait freeze at all this year? We are two months and one week from solar minimum and the entire area is blazingly hot. Worse than 2016 or 2017.
Hudson Bay normally completes freezing in mid-December. I'd be extremely surprised if your prediction of mid-November came true. Will you revisit it when the time comes?

As to Bering Strait, I am certain it will freeze at some point this winter. Max is still 4-5 months away.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 14, 2018, 08:35:01 PM
Quote
If the last 12 months are any indicator, the Baffin / Labrador front is going to be extremely impressive this winter, and the Hudson refreeze should be mostly complete by 11/15. The cold in Baffin and Labrador is already very impressive vs. normal and ice formation is racing down from the MYI on Nares (with FYI also now forming on shorelines).

Will the Bering Strait freeze at all this year? We are two months and one week from solar minimum and the entire area is blazingly hot. Worse than 2016 or 2017.
Hudson Bay normally completes freezing in mid-December. I'd be extremely surprised if your prediction of mid-November came true. Will you revisit it when the time comes?

As to Bering Strait, I am certain it will freeze at some point this winter. Max is still 4-5 months away.
Yes! I shall re: Hudson Bay.

SSTs are running 3-4C below average, most of the Bay is already 32-34F. The extra seasonal snowcover nearby insulated the sea ice late into the summer and the reformation of substantial snowpack so early has helped ensure incoming air masses are also fresh and frigid (esp vs. normal). As has the abundance of ice in the CAA and the Beaufort adjacent to Nunavut. 

Foxe Basin is in the process of freezing from north to south as we speak. Also attached the weather forecast for Hall Beach on its western shore. It is already FRIGID in Nunavut and if long range modeling is correct it will be below 0 consistently by 10/20.

By 10/25, Foxe Basin should be entirely covered, by 11/15, Hudson should be mostly complete (I will say 75-85% at that point). We can revisit this post 11/16 and see if I am wrong.

(https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS32CT/20181013180000_WIS32CT_0010274255.gif)

I anticipate the very early refreeze of Hudson Bay will lead to worsened displacement of +500MB anomalies into the Bering. By 11/15-11/20 the primary vortex that has been sitting over the CAA will migrate into HB and we will see severe anomalous cold spread across all of North America east of the Rockies, while the Bering is still basking in bouts of 50F weather and enduring significant wave action from major LPs inbound from the NPAC.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 14, 2018, 09:20:13 PM
As to Bering Strait, I am certain it will freeze at some point this winter. Max is still 4-5 months away.

I wouldn't be certain. The strait is several degrees C warmer than it was last year, and freezing south of the strait was very limited was last year. It is also saltier (i think). And the chukchi sea is way warmer and saltier too.

I predict it does freeze but that it is pretty much the southern limit. Obviously there will be some coastal freezing, however I think overall the bering sea will sea close to ZERO ice this winter/spring.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 14, 2018, 09:30:06 PM
A shorter forecast. ESRL ice and snow thickness for oct13-20
https://floe.keytwist.net/esrl-daily-forecasts/2018-10-13

wipneus regional chart for the Bering Sea.

Bering did look like it was fighting a losing battle this year.
amsr2-uhh, jan-may, every 4 3 days
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 14, 2018, 11:02:28 PM
Will you revisit it when the time comes?

Of course not.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Red on October 14, 2018, 11:13:52 PM
Some may find this article interesting.
 http://www.highnorthnews.com/unprecedented-lack-of-refreeze-across-arctic-as-ice-continues-to-melt/

“In fact now ice extent in the Central Arctic Basin is second lowest for the day. Its slightly below the overall record year 2012. Only in the year 2007 there was less ice in the Central Arctic on this day of the year,” says Lars Kaleschke from the Center of Marine and Atmospheric Research (ZMAW) at the University of Hamburg. About 500,000 square kilometers of ice coverage are missing – about the size of Sweden – compared to the previous five years.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 14, 2018, 11:53:46 PM
As to Bering Strait, I am certain it will freeze at some point this winter. Max is still 4-5 months away.
I know you're talking about specific parts of the Arctic. In general tho, the last 3-4 years of Arctic sea ice extent maximums have been 14million square kilometers or less. During the 1980s, arctic sea ice extents have been 14 million square kilometers.... on January first!! It's "almost" like the Arctic is losing 2+ months of winter freeze. 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 15, 2018, 02:24:00 AM
OK, it's been at least three days.  Is there a graph for 85 degrees N similar to DMI 80 N?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: FishOutofWater on October 15, 2018, 02:32:52 AM
WACC is a pattern of relative warmth and cold in a warming climate. It doesn't mean that the continents are getting colder. WACC happens when the polar vortex is weak and cold air pours out over the continents in the cold months. WACC does not apply to summer.

The major stratospheric warming last February brought on a powerful WACC pattern. Snow hung on very late into spring in New England and really piled up in eastern Canada. Remember the "beast from the east" in Europe. hat was classic WACC related to the break down of the polar vortex.

And, yes, I have piles of firewood that I salvaged from downed trees in my neighborhood. Too many hurricanes. I'm thankful to all the scientists and technicians who go to the Arctic so that I can look at the data while sitting by a warm fire at home.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on October 15, 2018, 08:08:38 AM
WACC is a pattern of relative warmth and cold in a warming climate. It doesn't mean that the continents are getting colder. WACC happens when the polar vortex is weak and cold air pours out over the continents in the cold months.

Of course you are right about this FoW- you are much more knowledgable about this than me. Very often, however, some people and the media especially equate (and overhype) this process with brutally cold winters to come and whenever there is a cold winter month, they crow about this. We (in Europe) used to have very cold winters and attacks from Siberia long before the Arctic started to warm, January 85 and 87 come to mind. So even without cold outbreaks due to a weakened polar vortex, we used to have serious cold outbreaks. I looked at the volatility of winter temperatures and I found no significant change but we can see that winters are becoming wamrer in general.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: meddoc on October 15, 2018, 09:24:51 AM
Where's the Cooling that's been predicted by some Forumers...
Rather the Opposite is gaining Momentum.

Would be nice to get Info on in situ Situation with Methane.
Bubbling in the Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS, Kara?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: sark on October 15, 2018, 10:55:07 AM
https://youtu.be/DHkTUqrB_5I

getting into the WACC debate a little bit sent me looking for academic lectures on YouTube.  turned on to the work of Dr Judah Cohen.  a little tough to follow but he is an active writer on this blog https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

and a brief summary of his Siberian snow cover in October indicator http://www.judahcohen.org

to me, what's really interesting about this type of structural debate right now is that there are times when the arctic basin 2M temps actually are warmer than Greenland and Siberian temps... not just a signal in the anomalies. 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: echoughton on October 15, 2018, 01:34:08 PM
As to Bering Strait, I am certain it will freeze at some point this winter. Max is still 4-5 months away.

I wouldn't be certain. The strait is several degrees C warmer than it was last year, and freezing south of the strait was very limited was last year. It is also saltier (i think). And the chukchi sea is way warmer and saltier too.

I predict it does freeze but that it is pretty much the southern limit. Obviously there will be some coastal freezing, however I think overall the bering sea will sea close to ZERO ice this winter/spring.

But what does that mean for one of my top 15 favorite Alaska shows: Bering Sea Gold? They better be able to get out on the ice and mine, otherwise ratings will plummet!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: colchonero on October 15, 2018, 01:54:11 PM
I don't really get cci gfs 2m anomalies. It doesn't seem to match EC and GFS models on meteociel at all. Yeah sure there are some positive Temp 850hPa anomalies on meteociel as well, but nothing dramatic, and there are even some negative fields on the map. While on the other hand when I go to cci GFS it shows half of Arctic "burning in red", especially the Russian side. Now my question is, is that because there is so much open water compared to average there. So the 2m temps stay much higher than they should because there is no ice? Like in May or June when Temp850hPa explode for days but 2m temperature stays around 0C (32F), because of the ice over that area, just the opposite right now? That came to my mind cause the biggest difference between cci temp 2m and meteociel EC, GFS, temp850hPa is on the Russian side (Laptev and ESS) even though we have "pretty stable vortex" (compared to last 5 years), and cold air hanging there. I mean cci has Russian coast (the land) close to the average around day 7 (somewhere below, somewhere above), and it seems to follow meteociel GFS very well, but the seas are "burning".

Comparison, same date, same model (GFS 6z)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmodeles.meteociel.fr%2Fmodeles%2Fgfs%2Fruns%2F2018101506%2Fgfsnh-15-186.png%3F6&hash=a966e9b6ba2d2d228c251119c96e5842)
(https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/arc-lea/t2anom/2018-10-15-06z/66.png)

I mean look at the Bering Strait 850hPa anomalies, they are the highest on meteociel, but cci 2m seems to follow that very well, perhaps because there shouldn't be ice there anyway, compared to the average?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 15, 2018, 02:41:43 PM
An interesting discussion on Ron Kwok's new paper is developing over at "Snow White's" place, including an SAR animation of the sea ice north of Greenland this year amongst other things:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2018/10/an-unusual-sea-ice-situation-north-of-greenland/

My own brief thoughts?

Quote
The “oldest, thickest sea ice in the Arctic” seems to be vanishing before our very eyes.

Not to mention:

Quote
Ron must be a big fan of “Snow White”!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: harpy on October 15, 2018, 03:21:03 PM
I don't really get cci gfs 2m anomalies. It doesn't seem to match EC and GFS models on meteociel at all. Yeah sure there are some positive Temp 850hPa anomalies on meteociel as well, but nothing dramatic, and there are even some negative fields on the map. While on the other hand when I go to cci GFS it shows half of Arctic "burning in red", especially the Russian side. Now my question is, is that because there is so much open water compared to average there. So the 2m temps stay much higher than they should because there is no ice? Like in May or June when Temp850hPa explode for days but 2m temperature stays around 0C (32F), because of the ice over that area, just the opposite right now? That came to my mind cause the biggest difference between cci temp 2m and meteociel EC, GFS, temp850hPa is on the Russian side (Laptev and ESS) even though we have "pretty stable vortex" (compared to last 5 years), and cold air hanging there. I mean cci has Russian coast (the land) close to the average around day 7 (somewhere below, somewhere above), and it seems to follow meteociel GFS very well, but the seas are "burning".

Comparison, same date, same model (GFS 6z)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmodeles.meteociel.fr%2Fmodeles%2Fgfs%2Fruns%2F2018101506%2Fgfsnh-15-186.png%3F6&hash=a966e9b6ba2d2d228c251119c96e5842)
(https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/arc-lea/t2anom/2018-10-15-06z/66.png)

I mean look at the Bering Strait 850hPa anomalies, they are the highest on meteociel, but cci 2m seems to follow that very well, perhaps because there shouldn't be ice there anyway, compared to the average?

This is an interesting set of questions I'd love to hear the opinions of some of the experts here.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: colchonero on October 15, 2018, 03:40:34 PM
I mean if that is the case, on the one hand, it is good news, cause lot of stored heat should go away under this "cold spell", but on the other hand it is really bad news, cause if the area would have been already ice covered it  could have used these weather conditions to thicken a little bit, cause we know how unstable polar vortex is lately, and it is only a matter of time before there is another "attack" from the south. But now even if the ice forms there at the end of this period(7-10days), and that is a big IF, it will be very thin, and very vulnerable if there is another warm air advection from lower latitudes end of Oct or even beginning of Nov.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 15, 2018, 03:53:15 PM
I mean if that is the case, on the one hand, it is good news, cause lot of stored heat should go away under this "cold spell", but on the other hand it is really bad news, cause if the area would have been already ice covered it  could have used these weather conditions to thicken a little bit, cause we know how unstable polar vortex is lately, and it is only a matter of time before there is another "attack" from the south. But now even if the ice forms there at the end of this period(7-10days), and that is a big IF, it will be very thin, and very vulnerable if there is another warm air advection from lower latitudes end of Oct or even beginning of Nov.
Found this paper, may be useful in understanding the dynamics.  It's going to take a while for me to digest it; the calculus will be a challenge for me.  However, I'm able glean some useful tidbits from it about the general dynamics which apply:

https://www.hindawi.com/journals/ijas/2013/503727/

My take on things - making the heat more accessible is good, but there is a fixed limit on how fast that heat can leave the atmosphere. 

A metaphor if you will, our bucket has a hole that only lets water out just so fast.  If we pour more water into it, we still have the same aperture.  Pressure may cause a little more to flow out, but if that doesn't keep up with what we add, the water level in the bucket will still rise.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 15, 2018, 06:28:48 PM
Wind on the ice edge.
Expansion towards Severnaya Zemlya, compaction off Svalbard.
Polarview, oct14
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: josh-j on October 15, 2018, 08:37:47 PM
I don't really get cci gfs 2m anomalies. It doesn't seem to match EC and GFS models on meteociel at all. Yeah sure there are some positive Temp 850hPa anomalies on meteociel as well, but nothing dramatic, and there are even some negative fields on the map."

In case this helps anybody, anomalies both at 2m and at 850hpa can be viewed with the same colour scale at Tropical Tidbits:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2018101506&fh=198
(height level can be selected under Thermodynamics)

As the 2m temps there seem to match CCI, whatever the reason for the difference it probably isn't to do with CCI, rather the GFS (and/or reality). Which, of course, doesn't answer your question... but I find it so much easier to look at a two charts together when they have the same colour scale. :)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Sebastian Jones on October 15, 2018, 08:48:22 PM
echoughton asks (presumably tongue in cheek): "But what does that mean for one of my top 15 favorite Alaska shows: Bering Sea Gold? They better be able to get out on the ice and mine, otherwise ratings will plummet!"
Norton Sound is a bay off the Bering Sea, so even when the Bering does not freeze, it, and other bays in the Bering, do freeze. The Iditarod will have to change its route to all overland if the Sound does not freeze....
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 15, 2018, 09:14:39 PM
I don't really get cci gfs 2m anomalies.

Comparison, same date, same model (GFS 6z)
That is not the same date output...
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: be cause on October 15, 2018, 10:27:41 PM
and meanwhile dmi80 continues to chart a novel course . Today was back to 11'C above mean on a par with the previous peak . b.c.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on October 15, 2018, 10:30:18 PM
I don't really get cci gfs 2m anomalies. It doesn't seem to match EC and GFS models on meteociel at all. Yeah sure there are some positive Temp 850hPa anomalies on meteociel as well, but nothing dramatic, and there are even some negative fields on the map.

But why should 2m anomalies match anomalies at 850 hPa level (which is approximately at an altitude of 1500m) ? Anomalies can be completely different for example when large anticyclones are at play and a strong inversion sets up at surface level.

With inversions you can have below normal 2m anomalies and above at 1500m the air can be well above normal.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on October 15, 2018, 11:17:15 PM
Well it sure would be great if A-Team could come back with those amazing animations and descriptions of the ice flow. Especially given what's going on with all the export of multi-year ice.   ;)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: miki on October 15, 2018, 11:20:34 PM
Well it sure would be great if A-Team could come back with those amazing animations and descriptions of the ice flow. Especially given what's going on with all the export of multi-year ice.   ;)

Ditto  :)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 15, 2018, 11:29:28 PM
Well it sure would be great if A-Team could come back with those amazing animations

I wholeheartedly agree, but in the meantime here's an amazing animation courtesy of Suman Singha via:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2018/10/an-unusual-sea-ice-situation-north-of-greenland/

http://youtu.be/KiqJoGBaPMg
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 16, 2018, 12:10:46 AM

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2018/10/an-unusual-sea-ice-situation-north-of-greenland/


I followed the link and then followed the link to CryoSat-2 via the Centre for Polar Observation and Monitoring: http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html

And what did I find? The Arctic divided into basins. The same as NSIDC uses? Partly yes, mostly no. See attached example - the Canadian Archipelago has swallowed part of the Beaufort.

Maybe very clever people will be able to translate data in the grids into NSIDC Seas and vice versa. But for amateurs like me it's a non-starter.

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 16, 2018, 01:45:10 AM
Foxe Basin is now freezing rapidly and the first new ice is appearing along Hudson Bay's western shore.

(https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS32CT/20181015180000_WIS32CT_0010277293.gif)

If the EURO / COPERNICUS are correct, Foxe Basin will be at fully covered in partial ice by 10/23-24, and that means it'll probably be at 90%+ grey ice by 10/30.

While Foxe Basin is certainly freezing early, I think the real surprise awaits in Hudson. There is a large area of cold "fresh" water in its northeast portion that is already approaching 0C. As Foxe Basin freezes solid, the refreeze is also going to begin along Southampton Island and the western shoreline. But once Foxe Basin is done entirely, I think there is going to be a very rapid surge of sea ice south, as it spreads S from Southamption + Coats Island into the "fresher" areas. It will take about a week for the ice to consolidate, but by 11/5, I think the HB refreeze will be at the stage Foxe Basin is currently, and by 11/15, it will be mostly done.

The below shots are from COPERNICUS, with 10/24 at top and 10/15 at bottom with bounding of +2C and -1.5C.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 16, 2018, 01:46:55 AM
I followed the link and then followed the link to CryoSat-2 via the Centre for Polar Observation and Monitoring: http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html

And what did I find? The Arctic divided into basins. The same as NSIDC uses? Partly yes, mostly no. See attached example - the Canadian Archipelago has swallowed part of the Beaufort.

I guess that for the most part the sections make geophysical sense, but the name for that one certainly ought not be Canadian Archipelago.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: colchonero on October 16, 2018, 02:46:44 AM
I don't really get cci gfs 2m anomalies. It doesn't seem to match EC and GFS models on meteociel at all. Yeah sure there are some positive Temp 850hPa anomalies on meteociel as well, but nothing dramatic, and there are even some negative fields on the map.

But why should 2m anomalies match anomalies at 850 hPa level (which is approximately at an altitude of 1500m) ? Anomalies can be completely different for example when large anticyclones are at play and a strong inversion sets up at surface level.

With inversions you can have below normal 2m anomalies and above at 1500m the air can be well above normal.


In this case, they should. There is no strong wind, no additional moisture,  no inversion, not much precipitation, not much sunlight to warm lower altitudes so dramatically, no tight Isobars,  no big cyclones, no huge waves. Nothing that extraordinary, EXCEPT NO ICE.  Temperature will stay at or above 0C over open water, even if temp 850hPa drops to -20C, as long as there is no ice coverage.

Edit: In meteorology, there is always a reason, a cause, something is happening, and there is a consequence what will happen shortly after because of the things happening right now. Because of that we can make  forecasts for example for tomorrow. When something changes tomorrow you adjust your forecast for the upcoming days. You can't just say "oh they've decided not to match, just like that, for no reason"
I mean of course they don't have match exactly, but this is 15C+ difference over not insignificant period of time. And there is no event models are currently showing, that would cause that, except there is no ice.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 16, 2018, 08:54:16 AM
October 11-15.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Sterks on October 16, 2018, 09:21:19 AM
Looking at Wipneus regional graphs, it seems refreeze is very late in Laptev and in CAB (which from the map seems apparent the open waters are at Laptev sector and Atlantic front; maybe Chukchi).
Key region Beaufort, and CAA are actually very advanced in refreeze. ESS is not reaally late.
Laptev sea is shallow (mostly) and whether it is late or not matters less than if next year snows are heavy or not in adjacent region of Siberia.
The Atlantic front is at the mercy on how ocean currents work next years, and Chukchi is also at mercy of timing and strength of Bering inflow pulses.
So at the end of the day, all this late refreeze can be inconsequential to what happens next year.
(https://14adebb0-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-extent-regional.png)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 16, 2018, 01:52:13 PM
So at the end of the day, all this late refreeze can be inconsequential to what happens next year.

Incorrect.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 16, 2018, 03:27:14 PM
And what did I find? The Arctic divided into basins. The same as NSIDC uses?

Not really! You can download the gridded data if you wish, and aggregate it any which way you choose:

http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/data.html

You don't need to be "really clever", but I guess that's not necessarily right up the street of the average "amateur".
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Sterks on October 16, 2018, 04:01:35 PM
<snip A few ad hominems can be tossed around in the political and other threads, but in the primary threads such as this one, members are expected to shy away from pointless insults and instead post productive commentary. Thanks! ~~JP>
It is insulting to respond to a comment with a simple "incorrect". That's even shorter and emptier in intellect than Trump's "fake news" tuits.
So I wanted to respond displaying the same attitude of an ignorant. ;) Nothing else. Good luck with that member
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 16, 2018, 04:10:02 PM
And what did I find? The Arctic divided into basins. The same as NSIDC uses?

Not really! You can download the gridded data if you wish, and aggregate it any which way you choose:

http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/data.html

You don't need to be "really clever", but I guess that's not necessarily right up the street of the average "amateur".
Hullo Jim,

As Tommy Cooper said "Not Like That, Like That".
OK, so I got a gz file, extracted the .txt file using 7-zip, and can see the data.

1. As I don't have any GIS/mapping software, can you recommend a really really simple dumbo program (freebie would be good)?
2. I read somewhere that the NSIDC mask file has all the seas allocated by code for each grid element. I guess that it is possible to match the cryosat data to that mask to be able to generate summaries by NSIDC classification of the Arctic seas.
Where can  find a) the code book and b) the mask file ?

please, pretty please - I need some 'elp.

I will give it a go when I feel like making myself really confused and frustrated.

EDIT:-
I remembered an e-mail I got some time ago from NSIDC. So

- I found the code list (attached),
- I found the mask file - on GitHub.

So I am stuck - I don't know how to use GitHub. Installing it might kill my ancient laptop?
And the mask file does not have lat / long but the NSIDC overview tells me there are tools to do it  that I am totally unfamiliar with

A bridge too far I think, which is a shame. Adding the NSIDC sea code as an extra column in the cryosat-2 data would make it so easy to produce analyses by each sea and groups of seas to compare with area and extent data from the NSIDC excel files.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 16, 2018, 05:28:08 PM
please, pretty please - I need some 'elp.

I will give it a go when I feel like making myself really confused and frustrated.

Partly because I'm "a programmer" my approach would be to download the data in NetCDF format then view it in Panoply. Then perhaps follow Wipneus' Python programming tutorial. See the "Mapping Geocoded Data Sets" thread for more info:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1871.0.html

Be warned that I haven't actually tried to do any of that with the CS2 data!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: shendric on October 16, 2018, 06:02:14 PM
Quote
A bridge too far I think, which is a shame. Adding the NSIDC sea code as an extra column in the cryosat-2 data would make it so easy to produce analyses by each sea and groups of seas to compare with area and extent data from the NSIDC excel files.

A modified NSDIC region mask (Baltic sea added) is included in the upcoming v2.1 of the AWI CryoSat-2 sea ice product for both the grids and the daily trajectory data sets.
Cheers, Stefan
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on October 16, 2018, 06:18:55 PM
In this case, they should. There is no strong wind, no additional moisture,  no inversion, not much precipitation, not much sunlight to warm lower altitudes so dramatically, no tight Isobars,  no big cyclones, no huge waves. Nothing that extraordinary, EXCEPT NO ICE.  Temperature will stay at or above 0C over open water, even if temp 850hPa drops to -20C, as long as there is no ice coverage.

Not sure where this conversation is going - but I do agree with your last point. Lack of ice has a huge effect on 2m surface temperatures (and anomalies). Some central parts of the Laptev and Chukchi have no sea ice within 300 to 400km. Any air advected from cold sources of the CAB or other area will have warmed considerably over the relatively warm arctic ocean and won't be much below the temperature of the SST. In times past (which the anomalies are based on) these same parts could be well expected to be ice covered by now and easily attaining temperatures of -20 C. So it's easy to see how parts of the Arctic Ocean that are not ice covered can accrue such large +ve anomalies at the 2m level.

In the case above then it is possible to see how you could have cold air aloft (near normal 850 hPa temps) and warm surface conditions. The opposite also frequently happens in the Arctic (very warm 850hPa with only modest warming at the surface). A case in point being the end of November last year over the top of Ellesmere. The 850 hPa temps rose to temperatures above zero on 24/11/17 some 20 C above normal as warm air migrated north from Baffin on the west side of a a strong Greenland anticyclone. Meanwhile at surface level these warm anomalies did not transfer to such an extent with a Tmax there of -15 C. Anomaly of +10 C.

Point being that anomalies at 1500m will be frequently different to anomalies at the surface because of the different states at the surface (Ice cover/no ice cover, deep snow/no snow etc). 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 16, 2018, 06:42:20 PM
Appears that some of the Ice Sheet cold has slipped into the seas northeast of Greenland. Despite down slope warming, the flow of atmospheric cold remains sub-average.....
After some of the cold moved off the Greenland Ice Sheet to the northeast, a warm front replaced it on the eastern half of the Ice Sheet.
With the High Arctic temperatures now fluttering up & down, due first to half of Greenland Ice Sheet atmosphere at sub-average temperatures, flowing into the Seas northeast of Greenland & a portion then flowing to the NP. Second, a warm front replaced the cold on the eastern half of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Third, that very temporary warmth has mostly been pushed off the Ice Sheet, &  flows into the High Arctic, supporting warm temperatures there. Fourth, looking at the Greenland Ice Sheet again, cold envelopes it, pumped from the vast cold atmosphere that has over-taken all of mid-Canada, the middle of the U.S. & even into northern Mexico.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: FishOutofWater on October 16, 2018, 07:13:03 PM
The open water, especially water that's above 0C tends to increase atmospheric water vapor levels which reduces outgoing longwave radiation. It also increases atmospheric instability and leads to storms being a bit stronger. When combined with warmer than normal waters in the far north Atlantic and Pacific it can also lead to stronger blocking high pressure areas and more blocking.

The block on the dateline going up into the Arctic on the 30 day 500mb anomaly map is stunning.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 16, 2018, 08:00:40 PM
A modified NSDIC region mask (Baltic sea added) is included in the upcoming v2.1 of the AWI CryoSat-2 sea ice product for both the grids and the daily trajectory data sets.

Thanks very much for that most interesting information Stefan.

Have you fixed the 2.1 release date yet by any chance?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 16, 2018, 08:06:45 PM
Quote
A bridge too far I think, which is a shame. Adding the NSIDC sea code as an extra column in the cryosat-2 data would make it so easy to produce analyses by each sea and groups of seas to compare with area and extent data from the NSIDC excel files.

A modified NSDIC region mask (Baltic sea added) is included in the upcoming v2.1 of the AWI CryoSat-2 sea ice product for both the grids and the daily trajectory data sets.
Cheers, Stefan
Shendric -that is the best news I have heard in ages. Just think - cryosat-2 data according to NSIDC regions. All we need now is a few years data, say until 2025, but patience is a virtue.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 16, 2018, 08:59:12 PM
amsr2-uhh and ascat oct7-15.
CAA and Fram export continue. Open water remains north of Severnaya Zemlya for the time being.

Today's ecmwf waves from windy.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 16, 2018, 11:18:45 PM
<snip A few ad hominems can be tossed around in the political and other threads, but in the primary threads such as this one, members are expected to shy away from pointless insults and instead post productive commentary. Thanks! ~~JP>
It is insulting to respond to a comment with a simple "incorrect". That's even shorter and emptier in intellect than Trump's "fake news" tuits.
So I wanted to respond displaying the same attitude of an ignorant. ;) Nothing else. Good luck with that member

You basically said that it doesn't matter if there is or isn't ice. That's insulting to the whole premise of this forum, and runs counter to everything ever said on this thread (and is pretty ignorant). "Incorrect" seemed sufficient. Otherwise I'd have to just repeat everything already posted on this thread about the effects of the lack of ice and the implications for the future.

I think if you are going to make as bold of a claim as you did, you need to provide more of an explanation than the Laptev is shallow and the Atlantic has variable currents. I'm totally open to different ideas...even if they prove wrong the discussion of possibilities is always good. But flippantly saying it doesn't matter if there is open ocean instead of ice is not a theory.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 16, 2018, 11:40:04 PM
I think we can make a pretty good guesstimate already for how the freezing season will pan out:

The Laptev Sea freeze will be several weeks delayed. This may be countered (not in effect, but in extent measurements) by an early freeze in the Hudson Bay.

The Chukchi Sea will likely be the real story (which will probably lead into Bering Sea anomalies as well). The delays will probably be record setting.

ESS, Beaufort, and CAA will probably be quicker to freeze than in recent years.

Barents and Kara have non-impressive SST anomalies but currently the ice edge is very far away. Likely nothing too interesting.

The other seas may change weather patterns but I don't think have a direct or predictable effect on the arctic, so I don't really care.

Agree, disagree?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 17, 2018, 12:09:37 AM
Key region CAB is late freezing this year.
All three island groups on the Atlantic front are still ice free, exposing a very long Atlantic front. Much of the Atlantic ice edge is probably still affected by warmer salty water this year. As is the Chukchi sea.
So, at the end of each day, this might be quite consequential to what happens this year.

amsr2-uhh(from2013) and ascat extent from 2010-2018
hycom sea surface salinity (0m) sep24-oct23 (forecast) (click to run)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: shendric on October 17, 2018, 09:01:03 AM

Thanks very much for that most interesting information Stefan.

Have you fixed the 2.1 release date yet by any chance?

It will be released in the next days, definitely before the end of next week. I can post the anouncement here in the forum as well.
Stefan
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on October 17, 2018, 10:22:17 AM

Agree, disagree?

I agree with that  summation.

Only comment i would  make is that maybe,if synoptic weather patterns play ball with an anticyclonic block to the northern Chukchi, that it might not be a record breaking late freeze up in the Chukchi. 
The Beaufort seems to be advancing well and if there was persistent easterlies this would gradually cool down the very high Chukchi SSTs. There is a long way to go though, admittedly.
Of course Chukchi may still be bombarded with warm southerlies , like last winter, so will wait and see.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Jontenoy on October 17, 2018, 10:28:38 AM
Interesting study from MIT shows a change in the rotational speed of the Beaufort Gyre due to loss of ice in that area. This seems to affect many of the parameters associated with ice drift, salinity , AMOC etc.
Perhaps other more learned Forum members might like to discuss the repercussions .....

http://news.mit.edu/2018/arctic-ice-sets-speed-ocean-current-1017
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Sterks on October 17, 2018, 04:22:45 PM
Interesting study from MIT shows a change in the rotational speed of the Beaufort Gyre due to loss of ice in that area. This seems to affect many of the parameters associated with ice drift, salinity , AMOC etc.
Perhaps other more learned Forum members might like to discuss the repercussions .....

http://news.mit.edu/2018/arctic-ice-sets-speed-ocean-current-1017

I have read here just about the opposite, and from people like A-Team. That the Gyre is losing strength due to more cyclonic weather of late years and because thicker ice used to help better in transferring the anticyclonic motion of airmasses to the ocean in Winter and Spring . So go figure...

Of course, both antagonistic effects end up with catastrophic consequences.
This makes me lose a bit of confidence, then I forget it and I trust scientists again.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 17, 2018, 04:50:19 PM
Interesting study from MIT shows a change in the rotational speed of the Beaufort Gyre due to loss of ice in that area. This seems to affect many of the parameters associated with ice drift, salinity , AMOC etc.
Perhaps other more learned Forum members might like to discuss the repercussions .....

http://news.mit.edu/2018/arctic-ice-sets-speed-ocean-current-1017

I have read here just about the opposite, and from people like A-Team. That the Gyre is losing strength due to more cyclonic weather of late years and because thicker ice used to help better in transferring the anticyclonic motion of airmasses to the ocean in Winter and Spring . So go figure...

Of course, both antagonistic effects end up with catastrophic consequences.
This makes me lose a bit of confidence, then I forget it and I trust scientists again.
Both can be happening at the same time.

Like late refreeze tends to reduce time available for ice thickening but late refreeze allows ocean heat to escape more allowing faster stronger refreeze.

So which influence will prevail, or will a completely new environment emerge with completely new wind and ocean currents?

'Ware scientists who only look at one thing that is going on and dismiss all others. This is uncharted territory with very little data about what is going on down there under the surface.

Anyway - "that is my opinion and it belongs to me".
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 17, 2018, 05:08:55 PM
'Ware scientists who only look at one thing that is going on and dismiss all others. This is uncharted territory with very little data about what is going on down there under the surface.

Anyway - "that is my opinion and it belongs to me".

I'm more inclined to be wary of scientists who make pronouncements when there is no possibility of performing an experiment.  In fact, I'm more inclined to call them prognosticators than scientists, and I include cosmologists in that category.

All it would take is an "it appears" or an "it seems likely" here and there and I'd be willing to call them scientists.

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: FishOutofWater on October 17, 2018, 06:06:44 PM
That paper is saying what A-Team and I have been saying for some time. There are a number of papers about the increase in the fresh water content of the Beaufort gyre from 2000 - 2015. We know that the gyre has spun up with the decline of multiyear sea ice and we know why. This paper quantifies it and models it.

What A-Team and I have been saying is that there is now evidence of weakening of the gyre in response to increased storminess over the past several years. The release of fresh water from the gyre is one of the causes of the cold SST anomaly in the Greenland and Labrador seas.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 17, 2018, 08:19:19 PM
That paper is saying what A-Team and I have been saying for some time. There are a number of papers about the increase in the fresh water content of the Beaufort gyre from 2000 - 2015. We know that the gyre has spun up with the decline of multiyear sea ice and we know why. This paper quantifies it and models it.

What A-Team and I have been saying is that there is now evidence of weakening of the gyre in response to increased storminess over the past several years. The release of fresh water from the gyre is one of the causes of the cold SST anomaly in the Greenland and Labrador seas.
Trouble is the paper is subscriber only, so people like me have no idea if the paper gives any idea of
- what additional quantities of fresh cold water were sucked into the gyre during the period of spinning up,
- how much water is now escaping,
- any idea of how much impact that will have on the movement of warm and cold water into and out of the Arctic
- and from that any idea of the impact on Arctic Sea Ice and regional climates.

If this change is happening now what impact could there be on the 2018-19 freezing season?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on October 17, 2018, 08:51:00 PM
Key region CAB is late freezing this year.

how do you mean "key-region" ?

to my understanding the CAB is the region that is anyways ice covered and the bigger part of it all year round, hence i don't really understand how this can be a key-region when talking about refreeze. if you mean "core-region" i get it, else i need enlightenment please.

EDIT: it's also the reagion that is mostly around or below -20C (not always but mostly and in big parts) hence, same question, how can a region that is most stable providing a similar to same condition each year be key to freezing process. i don't say insignificant, but IMO not key.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: FishOutofWater on October 17, 2018, 09:13:02 PM
The Beaufort gyre is where the fresh water is stored. The Beaufort gyre does not have a constant pole of rotation - it moves about depending on the winds and other factors. If they gave an actual link to the paper one of us could probably pull it up. Instead, they give us their science writer's PR and no link to the source. Google and google scholar didn't quickly pull it up. The link may be on an author's web pages.

Anyway, it's pretty clear that they modelled the fresh water build up we already know about from other reports and web pages. It's only in the past few years that some of that fresh water has been released.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: FishOutofWater on October 17, 2018, 09:25:13 PM
Note that there was evidence of strong deep convection in the Labrador and Greenland seas last year in late winter but the anomalous vortex around Greenland and the stormy polar July caused larger than normal amounts of water to flow out of the Arctic, freshening the top 1000m of the Labrador sea. On the other side of the Arctic, sea surface height gradients and southerly winds have driven warm Pacific water into the Chukchi, replacing the fresh water. This should slow down the freezing season in the Chukchi this winter and slow the onset of deep convection in the Labrador sea.

And note the Mercator 10 day projection in the middle. The profile is much saltier than the profile 10 days earlier. It looks like I have found a problem with the forecast model. Don't use it for anything until the forecast is consistent with the past and present Mercator model output.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: vox_mundi on October 17, 2018, 09:31:35 PM
The Ice‐Ocean governor: ice‐ocean stress feedback limits Beaufort Gyre spin up 
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018GL080171

https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080171


Abstract
The Beaufort Gyre is a key circulation system of the Arctic Ocean and its main reservoir of freshwater. Freshwater storage and release affects Arctic sea‐ice cover, as well as North Atlantic and global climate. We describe a mechanism that is fundamental to the dynamics of the Gyre, namely the “ice‐ocean stress governor”. Wind blows over the ice and the ice drags the ocean. But as the gyre spins up, currents catch the ice up and turn off the surface stress. This governor sets the basic properties of the gyre, such as its depth, freshwater content, and strength. Analytical and numerical modeling is employed to contrast the equilibration processes in an ice‐covered versus ice‐free gyre. We argue that as the Arctic warms, reduced sea‐ice extent and more mobile ice will result in a deeper and faster Beaufort Gyre, accumulating more freshwater that will be released by Ekman upwelling or baroclinic instability.

Plain Language Summary
The Beaufort Gyre, located north of Alaska and Canada, is a key circulation system of the Arctic Ocean. Changes in its depth and circulation influence the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover, the North Atlantic circulation and the global climate. The gyre is driven by persistent, ice‐mediated, winds, accumulating surface fresh water towards the center, deepening the gyre and spinning up its currents.We describe a mechanism, dubbed here the "ice‐ocean governor", in which the interaction of surface currents with the ice regulates the depth of the Beaufort Gyre: the spinning up of the gyre reduces the relative speed between the ocean and the ice, and hence the fresh water accumulation. This competes with, and we argue is more important than, the release of fresh water by flow instability which moves water from the center towards the periphery.In the current climate the depth and speed of the Beaufort Gyre is mainly set by the governor, but this may change in a warming world where reduced ice cover will render the ice‐ocean governor less effective. The resulting deeper, swifter gyre will likely exhibit more variability in its fresh water storage and flow speeds.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 17, 2018, 09:37:07 PM
If they gave an actual link to the paper one of us could probably pull it up. Instead, they give us their science writer's PR and no link to the source.

BINGO! Found it

Googled " Beaufort Gyre Governor " and got - http://oceans.mit.edu/JohnMarshall/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/meneghello2018governor.pdf

I am supposed to be doing my personal admin but.....
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: FishOutofWater on October 17, 2018, 09:50:53 PM
Thanks for the link. This is a model study to test the hypothesis that sea ice acts as a governor to the Beaufort gyre. Here's the introductory statement to what they did:

To  explore  the  governor  mechanism  and  test  our  theoretical  model,  we  analyze  the
response of an idealized gyre under two different limit-case scenarios:  i) an ice-driven gyre
(α=1 in equation 1, in which forcing depends purely on gradients ofτ=τi) and

 ii) an ice free, wind-driven gyre (α=0, in which forcing depends purely on gradients of τ=τa).

We conclude with a discussion of the implications of the governor for the Arctic Ocean’s
circulation and its fresh water content.

The implications of this study are quite significant. Without the sea ice governor, the Beaufort gyre will go through sudden expansions and contractions. Large pulses of fresh water will be released to the Labrador sea causing sudden disruptions of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). This will destabilize NH winter weather patterns causing swings from warm to cold over periods that haven't yet been determined, perhaps decadal or less.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Brigantine on October 17, 2018, 11:23:36 PM
And note the Mercator 10 day projection in the middle. The profile is much saltier than the profile 10 days earlier. It looks like I have found a problem with the forecast model.

It's not the model, it's just the scale. Darker colours representing the same salinities. Mercator is like that.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 17, 2018, 11:27:02 PM
Hullo again FishOutofWater.

Do you remember this recent paper ?
Is there a connection with the Beaufort Gyre Governor discussion?

OCEANOGRAPHY Copyright © 2018

Warming of the interior Arctic Ocean linked to sea ice
losses at the basin margins

Mary-Louise Timmermans1*, John Toole2, Richard Krishfield2
Quote
Arctic Ocean measurements reveal a near doubling of ocean heat content relative to the freezing temperature in the Beaufort Gyre halocline over the past three decades (1987–2017). This warming is linked to anomalous solar heating of surface waters in the northern Chukchi Sea, a main entryway for halocline waters to join the interior Beaufort Gyre. Summer solar heat absorption by the surface waters has increased fivefold over the same time period, chiefly because of reduced sea ice coverage. It is shown that the solar heating, considered together with subduction rates of surface water in this region, is sufficient to account for the observed halocline
warming. Heat absorption at the basin margins and its subsequent accumulation in the ocean interior, therefore, have consequences for Beaufort Gyre sea ice beyond the summer season.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: FishOutofWater on October 17, 2018, 11:38:10 PM
I think that some of the heated water discussed in that recent paper ends up in the Pacific water layer of the Beaufort gyre. It would be below the meltwater layer and above the Atlantic water layer.

Yes, those papers are related in more than just the authorship.

As to the darker color on the Mercator x-section, I tried to use the fixed scale that keeps the same color for the same temperature & salinity. It looks like that didn't happen with the image for the forecast.

I absolutely hate scales that change over time because I'm generally trying to see change over time.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 17, 2018, 11:44:13 PM
Key region CAB is late freezing this year.
how do you mean "key-region" ?<snippage>
Sorry about that, I was using Sterks terminology ;)
wipneus-regional-arctic-sea-ice-extent-oct16
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 17, 2018, 11:48:01 PM
Thick ice making its way down the Mclure Strait. Polar view 0ct15.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 17, 2018, 11:54:40 PM
Thick ice making its way down the Mclure Strait.
I think all this MYI will make the northern CAA a laggard in summer 2019, as it was this year.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on October 18, 2018, 01:00:22 AM
Thick ice making its way down the Mclure Strait.
I think all this MYI will make the northern CAA a laggard in summer 2019, as it was this year.

that and not too far out there will be no or little replacement MYI and that's the latest when we gonna be in for another step down the ladder, could be before, depending on weather conditions but latest when most of the MYI has gone south one or another way.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 18, 2018, 01:04:22 AM
This should slow down the freezing season in the Chukchi this winter and slow the onset of deep convection in the Labrador sea.
Roughly, what is the time it takes for Chuckchi water to reach the Labrador sea?

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: FishOutofWater on October 18, 2018, 03:53:09 AM
Water that gets subducted into into subsurface layers takes years to do anything in the Arctic ocean.  When the oceanographers figure out when that water comes back up I will tell you or you will tell me. The paper did not report on subducted heat resurfacing. So the answer is, I don't know.

What's important to us now is that the Chukchi is changing rapidly before our eyes into a mostly ice free region in the arctic. This will affect both the atmosphere and the ocean in years to come and this year well into late fall and early winter.

I took another look at the Mercator scales. They were the same. Don't trust the forecasts.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 18, 2018, 06:25:23 AM
October 13-17.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on October 18, 2018, 09:19:52 AM
Thanks for that animation Aluminium.

The time lapse shows something we don't see too often. A flash freeze in the central Beaufort. Usually ice freeze either extends out from the main pack edges or from the continent edges. Here we can see a large freeze in the central Beaufort that was not connected to the main pack.

Not sure if this is connected with that patch of old ice in the Beaufort (I thought it had migrated further west) or maybe an area of low salinity water surrounded by slightly higher salinity that froze first ?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 18, 2018, 12:00:30 PM
What's important to us now is that the Chukchi is changing rapidly before our eyes into a mostly ice free region in the arctic. This will affect both the atmosphere and the ocean in years to come and this year well into late fall and early winter.

I attach graphs showing the progress of the Chukchi to an open water sea.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 18, 2018, 12:44:23 PM
Thanks for that animation Aluminium.

The time lapse shows something we don't see too often. A flash freeze in the central Beaufort. Usually ice freeze either extends out from the main pack edges or from the continent edges. Here we can see a large freeze in the central Beaufort that was not connected to the main pack.

Not sure if this is connected with that patch of old ice in the Beaufort (I thought it had migrated further west) or maybe an area of low salinity water surrounded by slightly higher salinity that froze first ?
ascat, sep27-oct17 appears to show it is related to the plucky patch of old ice

@FOoW, agree, mercator forecasts often don't appear to match with last analysis. Even using fixed scale images.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Phil. on October 18, 2018, 04:12:37 PM
Thanks for that animation Aluminium.

The time lapse shows something we don't see too often. A flash freeze in the central Beaufort. Usually ice freeze either extends out from the main pack edges or from the continent edges. Here we can see a large freeze in the central Beaufort that was not connected to the main pack.

Not sure if this is connected with that patch of old ice in the Beaufort (I thought it had migrated further west) or maybe an area of low salinity water surrounded by slightly higher salinity that froze first ?

Looks like it's the main ice breaking up and being carried west, here's a shot from a couple of days ago from Worldview:
https://go.nasa.gov/2R4ExVN (https://go.nasa.gov/2R4ExVN)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 18, 2018, 04:16:19 PM
A look at FDDs confirms that the season has not started well.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: FishOutofWater on October 18, 2018, 04:21:25 PM
Phil, I don't think ice moved quickly enough to do what you think it did. I think that the freezing front propagated quickly along a freshwater layer created by melting ice in the summer months. I think there was clear sky and radiational cooling in the area of freeze up. Without clouds heat is lost rapidly in the in the Arctic darkness.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: sark on October 18, 2018, 05:42:34 PM
The GFS 2M temperatures forecast shows cold building in Siberia throughout the next week... the open ocean water really seems to be keeping air temperatures in the Arctic Ocean anomalously warm over the same timeframe.  My current darling is the warm arctic cold continents scenario, perhaps there is a glimpse into the future based on what emerges.  Certainly, there are considerable regions of colder 2M air temperatures over land than over water.  But, I didn't come here to point and grunt at the GFS.. I'm wondering if there is an existing WACC index time series?

Looking at various troposphere pressure anomalies in the latter half of GFS forecast shows ... I wanna say kaleidoscopic ? is there a better term for this pattern?  It's like vortex lows swirling eachother but it breaks into two patterns with one over Siberia, one over CAA/Greenland... Kaleidoscopic I wanna say.  Reminds me of a bucket of swirling paint.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on October 18, 2018, 06:20:14 PM
I believe the sudden growth in the Beaufort/CAB is thanks to the sliver of ice that remained in the Beaufort. That small amount of ice begat more ice very fast, encircling a huge swath of the ocean, giving it the perfect conditions for fast refreeze.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on October 18, 2018, 07:16:07 PM
Here is an image of the developing ice patch in the Beaufort on Oct 15th. Oriented top north. The main pack is located over 300km to the east - too far away to be break off. I agree it is most likely linked to the plucky patch of old ice. 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 18, 2018, 07:34:42 PM
October 13-17.
Hey, that's a cool animation, could you extend it to start few days (say 4) days earlier and end in about 4-7 more?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 18, 2018, 07:41:13 PM
Niall,
Is that a giant jellyfish on the right?
 ;D ::) :P
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on October 18, 2018, 08:40:20 PM
Niall,
Is that a giant jellyfish on the right?
 ;D ::) :P
Yes, Tor I saw that earlier. Thought it was a bit like a euro symbol.
 :).
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 18, 2018, 09:10:54 PM
Foxe Basin is now home to a rapidly growing area of grey ice. As of 10/15,

(https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS55DPTCT/20181015180000_WIS55DPTCT_0010280282.gif)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 18, 2018, 09:57:10 PM
The time of the great loss of 2012 Arctic sea ice, setting the lowest ever sea ice extent spanning months, has come to an end, now past mid-October. The to-date arctic sea ice extent for 2007 is now the lowest extent, & 2007 is soon to be passed by 2016 sea ice low, which was a tremendous comparative downward surge during this period of rapidly gathering Arctic sea ices. It is not coincidental that the 2016 wild DECREASE in sea ice GAIN, occurred when the gap between the satellite average High Arctic temperature & 2016 High Arctic temperature, was at its widest ever ( ~ +20degC) averaged over millions of square kilometers.
With all this sea ice... "decrease of the increase", it will be very interesting to see what the to-date sea ice extent of 2018 will bring in these future weeks, since to-date 2018 sea ice extent is rivaling 2012, 2007, & 2016, & a "long term" 2018 High Arctic high temperature is presently reigning.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 18, 2018, 10:09:00 PM
Hey, that's a cool animation, could you extend it to start few days (say 4) days earlier and end in about 4-7 more?
After 4-7 days, of course. I saved single images since June 8.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 18, 2018, 11:48:12 PM
ESRL ice and snow thickness forecast, oct17-24. Steady pack expansion and Alaskan, ESS and Laptev coastal ice growth over the next week. (Missed the Beaufort flash freeze though)
edit: Not sure how that forecast will turn out with current SST's, though there are already signs of those coasts freezing on amsr2

https://floe.keytwist.net/esrl-daily-forecasts/2018-10-17
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on October 19, 2018, 12:15:22 AM
Laptev looks to be in for a bit of heat, especially on the CAB side.  We might still see some decent ice growing along the Siberian coast.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on October 19, 2018, 12:46:47 AM
ESRL ice and snow thickness forecast, oct17-24. Steady pack expansion and Alaskan, ESS and Laptev coastal ice growth over the next week. (Missed the Beaufort flash freeze though)


It's strange alright that ESRL did not pick up on the sudden changes in the more western Beaufort.

Here is the NSIDC view on Oct 17th. That Beaufort blob does look remarkable, compared with the image 3 days earlier.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: be cause on October 19, 2018, 02:55:07 AM
to see the beaufort blob and it's origins best to run Worldview from @ 5th Oct .. it is possible to see thru the clouds most days and on the 16th you can see the new ice with the old embedded ..
as for dmi80' .. the high Arctic .. the regional anomaly remains 10'C above normal and/or where it should have been 31 days ago .. and most of the last 23 days have broken daily records .
  b.c.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 19, 2018, 04:07:08 AM
....the gap to the present "2010's Arctic sea ice" average widening again to 440,000 square kilometers LESS.
.....2018 Arctic sea ice is 550,000 square kilometers LESS than the to-date "2010's sea ice average". 2018 now has more to-date sea ice than ONLY the year 2012, which had a spectacular loss of sea ice, much going away due to fortuitous winds that drove ices into the North Atlantic.
To-date 2018 Arctic sea ice is 720,000 square kilometers LESS than the to-date "2010's sea ice average".
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 19, 2018, 04:41:35 AM
It is not coincidental that the 2016 wild DECREASE in sea ice GAIN, occurred when the gap between the satellite average High Arctic temperature & 2016 High Arctic temperature, was at its widest ever ( ~ +20degC) averaged over millions of square kilometers.
Yes indeed! During this time of year when Arctic sea ice rapidly increases, there are very very few short periods of Arctic sea ice DECREASES. Yet, 2016 had two distinct periods of sea ice decrease, both losing periods occurring when 1) High Arctic temperature over millions of square kilometers  was 20(+?) degC above average & 2) High Arctic temperature over millions of square kilometers was ~ 16degC above average. As stated previously, 2018 may be setting itself up for a wild decrease in sea ice, if present 2018 High Arctic high temperatures go even higher.
We will see what the future temperatures & sea ices will do. There are two major cold fronts that could cool the High Arctic, one from the Canadian archipelago & one from the Greenland Ice Sheet, & a small cold front on High Siberia. So far the High Arctic resists the cold & predictions indicate that the High Arctic should stay warm.....for a while. 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 19, 2018, 04:59:59 AM
Hey, that's a cool animation, could you extend it to start few days (say 4) days earlier and end in about 4-7 more?
After 4-7 days, of course. I saved single images since June 8.
Great, looking at the patterns of ice growth over all the marginal Seas could be illuminating.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 19, 2018, 02:02:53 PM
....the gap to the present "2010's Arctic sea ice" average widening again to 440,000 square kilometers LESS.
.....2018 Arctic sea ice is 550,000 square kilometers LESS than the to-date "2010's sea ice average". 2018 now has more to-date sea ice than ONLY the year 2012, which had a spectacular loss of sea ice, much going away due to fortuitous winds that drove ices into the North Atlantic.
To-date 2018 Arctic sea ice is 720,000 square kilometers LESS than the to-date "2010's sea ice average".
To-date 2018 Arctic sea ice is three quarters  of a million square kilometers LESS than the to-date "2010's sea ice average".
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 19, 2018, 02:14:04 PM
ESS coastal refreeze, Worldview, oct19  https://tinyurl.com/ybgwuykd
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 19, 2018, 02:21:44 PM
ESRL ice and snow thickness forecast, oct17-24. Steady pack expansion and Alaskan, ESS and Laptev coastal ice growth over the next week. (Missed the Beaufort flash freeze though)


It's strange alright that ESRL did not pick up on the sudden changes in the more western Beaufort.

Here is the NSIDC view on Oct 17th. That Beaufort blob does look remarkable, compared with the image 3 days earlier.
That new ice is very thin. The NSIDC resolution may be exaggerating the change a little. ;)

edit: The old ice line north of Severnaya Zemlya. amsr2-uhh oct18, polarview oct19
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: seaice.de on October 19, 2018, 04:38:28 PM
That new ice is very thin. The NSIDC resolution may be exaggerating the change a little. ;)

Indeed, have a look at SMOS data. Ice thickness calculation resumed after the melting pause.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Cid_Yama on October 19, 2018, 04:44:36 PM
Bremen has 2018 lowest for this date.

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_n_running_mean_amsr2_previous.png
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Sarat on October 19, 2018, 04:51:47 PM
Is there a resource that catalogues the Northeast Passage opening and closing dates?

Is this year a record long open?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: FishOutofWater on October 19, 2018, 05:18:27 PM
The SMOS data are concerning. The thickest ice continues to decline to record low amounts. That means we are at a record low ice volume for the date, by a good margin, if SMOS is correct.

The PIOMAS mid month update showed 2018 volume above 2012 and pretty much tied with the other contenders for low volume, so there is apparently modest disagreement in volume estimates. Most likely that's because PIOMAS has more volume this year in the greater than 1m thick region in the central Arctic basin.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: vox_mundi on October 19, 2018, 06:05:55 PM
Air Pollution Reduces Arctic Cloud Lifetime, Study Suggests (https://eos.org/scientific-press/air-pollution-reduces-arctic-cloud-lifetime-study-suggests)

Fossil fuel emissions from Asia and Europe may be cutting down the life expectancy of Arctic clouds, reducing the clouds’ ability to regulate temperatures in the polar region, according to new research.

A new study published in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union, suggests pollution plumes coming predominately from Northeast Asia and Northern Europe travel to the Arctic region and allow cloud droplets to freeze at higher temperatures.

This phenomenon triggers earlier than normal snowfall and can reduce the clouds’ lifetime, according to the new research.  The shorter the clouds live, the less they are able to regulate temperatures at the surface, the study’s authors said.

(https://eos.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/pollution-plume-from-siberia-mixing-with-clouds-in-arctic.png)
Pollution plume from Siberia mixing with clouds in the Arctic in July 2012. Contour lines indicate carbon monoxide concentrations. (Carbon monoxide is used as a proxy for air pollution) Ice clouds appear blue and liquid clouds appear white and gray. Credit: NASA and Quentin Coopman

Previous research conducted by Coopman and his colleagues showed Arctic cloud properties are extremely sensitive to pollution. They found clouds in the Arctic were two to eight times more sensitive to air pollution than clouds at other latitudes.

The new study’s results suggest pollution plumes lower the amount of cooling needed for cloud droplets to freeze by about 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit), a much stronger impact than expected, Coopman said. This means cloud droplets can freeze at higher temperatures. When cloud droplets freeze more readily, snowfall occurs sooner, which can decrease the clouds’ lifetimes and inhibits their ability to regulate temperatures at the surface, according to the study’s authors.

The new study did not examine how much this change in cloud formation is affecting surface temperatures but the study’s authors said previous work suggests a reduction of cloud lifetime would have an overall cooling effect on the surface and a warming effect in the upper atmosphere.


Q. Coopman et.al. Evidence for Changes in Arctic Cloud Phase Due to Long‐Range Pollution Transport (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018GL079873) Geophysical Research Letters, 21 September 2018

Quote
Abstract
Reduced precipitation rates allow pollution within air parcels from midlatitudes to reach the Arctic without being scavenged. We use satellite and tracer transport model data sets to evaluate the degree of supercooling required for 50% of a chosen ensemble of low‐level clouds to be in the ice phase for a given meteorological regime. Our results suggest that smaller cloud droplet effective radii are related to higher required amounts of supercooling but that, overall, pollution plumes from fossil fuel combustion lower the degree of supercooling that is required for freezing by approximately 4 °C. The relationship between anthropogenic plumes and the freezing transition temperature from liquid to ice remains to be explained.

Plain Language Summary
Anthropogenic pollution plumes from midlatitudes can be transported long distances to the Arctic. In this study, we analyze the impact of these plumes on how easily liquid clouds over the Arctic Ocean freeze by using a novel combination of satellite measurements and a pollution transport model. We find that liquid clouds in polluted air switch phase to become ice clouds at temperatures that are 4 °C higher they would otherwise in pristine air. Because ice clouds in the Arctic precipitate more easily than liquid clouds, the potential is that distant industrial pollution sources are acting to reduce arctic cloud life time.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 19, 2018, 06:23:54 PM
Noticing that the DMI 80N temp (sorry A-Team) has been hovering vaguely around -10º C, I wonder if the observed (reported on these threads) 'sea water functionally doesn't freeze until the air reaches -10' meme is related (heat of formation and all that physical chemistry stuff that I don't know anything about).
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 19, 2018, 07:38:32 PM
Couldn't resist comparing SMOS and 0m salinity.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 19, 2018, 08:11:31 PM
Couldn't resist comparing SMOS and 0m salinity.
I used to be more agile with my animations, but can you or anyone compare SMOS to PIOMAS (from Wipneus' animation) for Oct 15th? If it's technically possible.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on October 19, 2018, 08:44:24 PM
Bremen has 2018 lowest for this date.

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_n_running_mean_amsr2_previous.png

2007 is missing in that graph as far as i can see which is the real lowest at this date of the year if i'm not totally mistaken
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 19, 2018, 11:02:30 PM
Couldn't resist comparing SMOS and 0m salinity.
I used to be more agile with my animations, but can you or anyone compare SMOS to PIOMAS (from Wipneus' animation) for Oct 15th? If it's technically possible.
not this late ona friday noght =
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 20, 2018, 03:32:06 AM
Much is said about the "heat wave" in the High Arctic. But, the entire continent of Asia is warm too, with only very small areas of any coolness. The Asian heat slides into Europe & even continues south, over the islands of the Pacific & to Australia. 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 20, 2018, 07:16:21 AM
October 15-19.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 20, 2018, 08:34:10 AM
October 15-19.
Thanks as always for this animation.
The good news is that first signs of actual freezing have finally appeared as offshoots from the pack on the Atlantic front, and even on the Laptev front. Better late than never.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: sark on October 20, 2018, 09:16:29 AM
in the long range forecast, (this is all the way out to November 4th) GFS expects increased Arctic heat anomalies.  climate reanalyzer shows up to +5.8C in the Arctic zone.  really pronounced warm Arctic with two colder regions on land.  this is bigger than October of 2016 in terms of DMI 80N.

10mb center starts to move towards greenland as well.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 20, 2018, 11:31:05 AM
Noticing that the DMI 80N temp (sorry A-Team) has been hovering vaguely around -10º C, I wonder if the observed (reported on these threads) 'sea water functionally doesn't freeze until the air reaches -10' meme is related (heat of formation and all that physical chemistry stuff that I don't know anything about).
I have a vague memory that there was a study that suggested temps had to drop below -10 celsius for sea ice to form in the Arctic ocean. This has been repeated so often that it seems to have become the generally accepted conventional wisdom. I have my doubts.

I can see no reason why in a calm sea, and with the sea having lost most of its accumulated summer heat, ice cannot form at air temperatures a bit below -1.8. There is ice forming here and there on the Arctic fringes, and I doubt everywhere is at -10 or below.

I am expecting to be shot down. But is the proof out there?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on October 20, 2018, 11:32:18 AM
in the long range forecast, (this is all the way out to November 4th) GFS expects increased Arctic heat anomalies.  climate reanalyzer shows up to +5.8C in the Arctic zone.  really pronounced warm Arctic with two colder regions on land.  this is bigger than October of 2016 in terms of DMI 80N.

10mb center starts to move towards greenland as well.

Yeah. During September a lot of the focus here has been on the warmth coming up from the ATL and PAC fronts (and justifiably so) but this autumn the CAB is further compromised by very warm record breaking heat from Asia.
A favoured path was warmth from the chukchi running right across the top of Russia then turning right bringing further heat over the pole.
The Russian snow cover has been slow too and coupled with the very large open sea area in the Laptev the DMI N80 will struggle for a considerable time yet.
The Russian snow is beginning to develop now and there are small signs of ice developing along the north Russian coast, but it is going to take a few weeks yet before the warm Laptev is sealed off.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on October 20, 2018, 11:46:53 AM

I have a vague memory that there was a study that suggested temps had to drop below -10 celsius for sea ice to form in the Arctic ocean. This has been repeated so often that it seems to have become the generally accepted conventional wisdom. I have my doubts.

I can see no reason why in a calm sea, and with the sea having lost most of its accumulated summer heat, ice cannot form at air temperatures a bit below -1.8. There is ice forming here and there on the Arctic fringes, and I doubt everywhere is at -10 or below.

I am expecting to be shot down. But is the proof out there?

The Russian scientist Vladamir Vize ( the island was called after him ) was the Godfather of ice formation. There is a rather scary looking picture of him here on Wiki !

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Wiese

Maybe earlier in the season temps close to -10 are needed to get things going but nilas will form with air temps at -7.
IIRC the recent thin new ice that formed in the western Beaufort temps were not much lower than -7 C (according to nullschool)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on October 20, 2018, 02:17:29 PM
G, "I have my doubts." me too, here's Waynes post  (http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2016/10/new-sea-ice-starts-from-3-important.html)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Sterks on October 20, 2018, 02:50:36 PM
G, "I have my doubts." me too, here's Waynes post  (http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2016/10/new-sea-ice-starts-from-3-important.html)
Wayne's assertion that you must have hace -1.8C water  and -11C surface temperatures is scientifically wrong. By thermodynamics, the water, the interface, and the air immediate to it must be at the same temperature. The other is alternative facts, or fake science, as bad as those that some deniers use to push fanatically or ignorantly or both their arguments.

Let’s keep respect to 200-year-old established science at least, even when current scientific work may not be all well established yet.

Another thing is the 2m temperatures that the weather forecast may provide which may substantially be lower. But I doubt that the -10C threshold sustained for days as a rule of thumb is correct, except in specific conditions. Certainly the 80N temp DMI is no indicator of anything of the Arctic proper in general.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 20, 2018, 05:50:36 PM
G, "I have my doubts." me too, here's Waynes post  (http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2016/10/new-sea-ice-starts-from-3-important.html)
Wayne's post
Quote
New sea ice starts from 3 important concurring factors: -1.8 C water, little or no sea waves and colder than -11 C surface temperatures....

...  there is an apparent thermal balance,  where as,  colder than -11 C  surface air seems imperative for sea ice to form.WD October 4, 2016   

Where did he get that from? I tried to find out and failed, but I found some nice stuff on NSIDC for amateurs like me, and put the Lebedev formula into a simple spreadsheet -

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/thermodynamic_growth.html
Quote
The freezing temperature of ocean (saline) water is typically -1.8 degrees Celsius (28.7 degrees Fahrenheit). If the average daily temperature was -5.8 degrees Celsius (21.6 degrees Fahrenheit), this would be -4 degrees Celsius (24.8 degrees Fahrenheit) for one day, as the following equation shows:

(-1.8) - (-5.8) = 4 degrees below freezing

4 degrees below freezing, Day 1 = 4 cumulative FDD
7 degrees below freezing, Day 2 = 11 cumulative FDD
2 degrees above freezing, Day 3 = 9 cumulative FDD

Scientists have developed different formulas to estimate ice thickness from thermodynamic growth, using the FDD. One such formula (from Lebedev 1938) is:

Thickness (cm) = 1.33 * FDD (°C)0.58

The ice thickness increases at a rate roughly proportional to the square root of the cumulative FDD. Formulas such as this are empirical, meaning they are calculated only with observed data, so they really are simplifications of the ice growth processes. The formulas assume that the ice growth occurs in calm water and is reasonably consistent, and they do not take into account sea ice motion, snow cover, and other surface conditions.

Snow cover is one factor that dramatically alters the actual sea ice thickness calculated from the above formula. Snow is an effective insulator, slowing the transfer of heat from the ocean, through the ice, and to the atmosphere. Snow essentially slows the growth of ice.

And then we have The Northern Caspian Sea - https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/77008517.pdf
Quote
Sensitivity of Caspian sea-ice to air temperature
Helen Tamura-Wicks a∗ Ralf Toumi a and W. Paul Budgell
Space and Atmospheric Physics Group, Imperial College London, UK
Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway

Caspian sea ice concentration from satellite passive microwave data and surface
daily air temperatures are analysed from 1978 to 2009. Relationships between
mean winter air temperatures, cumulative freezing degree days (CFDD) and
the sum of daily ice area (cumulative ice area) are found. These show that
mean monthly air temperatures of less than 5.5 to 9.5◦C, and a minimum
CFDD of 3.6±11.2◦C, is required for ice formation in the Northern Caspian.

So far -11 degrees for sea ice formation looks like a load of....

Cumulative FDDs look much more like it (and of course any remaining ocean heat and upwelling etc etc etc).

How come we only have FDDs for North of 80? An FDD series for individual seas would seem to be a somewhat useful tool.
ps
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 20, 2018, 05:58:18 PM
.... a study that suggested temps had to drop below -10 celsius for sea ice to form in the Arctic ocean. This has been repeated so often that it seems to have become the generally accepted conventional wisdom. I have my doubts.
I quote from my post two days ago in this thread:
"During this time of year when Arctic sea ice rapidly increases, there are very very few short periods of Arctic sea ice DECREASES. Yet, 2016 had two distinct periods of sea ice decrease, both losing periods occurring when 1) High Arctic temperature over millions of square kilometers  was 20(+?) degC above average & 2) High Arctic temperature over millions of square kilometers was ~ 16degC above average."
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Phil. on October 20, 2018, 06:38:04 PM
My recollection is that it was the result of Wayne's own observations, he lives somewhere up in the Archipelago?  The ice thickness growth formula needs some surface ice to work with, surface ice will start to form once a stable density gradient is set up so there will be a delay while that occurs.  My guess is that the observation of the -10ºC is related to a heat transfer effect, bigger deltaT faster heat transfer.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 20, 2018, 07:29:02 PM
Gerontocrat, don't forget that when the topmost water surface is cooled it sinks, and ia replaced by warmer water below. This process is stopped when the watef is shallow, or when the surface flash-freezes into floating ice under a very low temperature. I think this is where the -10C or -7C air temps come from.
Of course it also depends on the stillness of the water (which is why coastal ice appears more quickly) and on salinity (which is why areas which have recently melted can freeze much more easily).
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 20, 2018, 07:50:07 PM
Gerontocrat, don't forget that when the topmost water surface is cooled it sinks, and ia replaced by warmer water below. This process is stopped when the watef is shallow, or when the surface flash-freezes into floating ice under a very low temperature. I think this is where the -10C or -7C air temps come from.
Of course it also depends on the stillness of the water (which is why coastal ice appears more quickly) and on salinity (which is why areas which have recently melted can freeze much more easily).
Hence the caveats in NSIDCs little article containing the Lebedev formula. (Don't forget Snow)

But you have to start somewhere and then put in all the parameters that modify the formula (if the formula itself holds - guess it would need some lab and field proofs that I understand Lebedev carried out). If there is no relationship between ice thickness and cumulative FDDs it makes the FDD data somewhat pointless.

But do the caveats also have formulae attached to them? I can see the need for a Cray supercomputer emerging.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 20, 2018, 08:47:03 PM
Gerontocrat, don't forget that when the topmost water surface is cooled it sinks, and ia replaced by warmer water below. This process is stopped when the watef is shallow, or when the surface flash-freezes into floating ice under a very low temperature. I think this is where the -10C or -7C air temps come from.
Of course it also depends on the stillness of the water (which is why coastal ice appears more quickly) and on salinity (which is why areas which have recently melted can freeze much more easily).

I can go into the mountains on a bitter cold day and drink fresh water from a running stream.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on October 20, 2018, 09:48:39 PM
-11C

it's a rule of thumb given a few other conditions.

- water has to be between 0-2C depending on salinity

- the mixing with deeper layer has to come to a halt (several reasons can apply)

- water surface conditions matter, i.e wave action

which is why it's a rule of thumb for saline seawater that's not glassy and no insolaton is adding energy to the surface etc.

i hope it helps
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 20, 2018, 10:22:19 PM
I'm grateful that Wayne took temperature measurements and photographs and posted them to add to the very limited 'on the ground' information available to us.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on October 20, 2018, 10:23:44 PM

Quote
New sea ice starts from 3 important concurring factors: -1.8 C water, little or no sea waves and colder than -11 C surface temperatures....

...  there is an apparent thermal balance,  where as,  colder than -11 C  surface air seems
imperative for sea ice to form.WD October 4, 2016   


So far -11 degrees for sea ice formation looks like a load of....


There is an observation showing a correlation and if you can't think of a model to fit the data then it's probably your understanding that's a load and not the observation! Don't dismiss observations because you don't like them.

My guess is the water can't lose enough heat rapidly enough through cooling air. The cooling top layer of the ocean becomes dense and circulates as it loses heat. You end up with a pattern of insulating cold air and circulating water that warms as you circulate the top 100m of the ocean. Not conducive to forming ice.

I thought that it was that the IR loss of both the ocean and the atmosphere producing the correct conditions for ice formation. An under those conditions the atmosphere is -11C and the water at freezing point. The freezing water is going to make a lot of heat as ice forms.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: FishOutofWater on October 20, 2018, 10:42:44 PM
The salinity gradients are a big deal in whether there's mixing and/or refreezing. We saw what appeared to be flash freezing in an area in the Beaufort sea where there had been a large amount of ice melting in the summer. It's a good bet that there was a stable fresh water layer at the surface that didn't mix.

I found Wayne's observations interesting, but they don't include a number of factors including salinity and stability of the sea water column that could affect freezing.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Sterks on October 21, 2018, 12:58:15 AM
I'm grateful that Wayne took temperature measurements and photographs and posted them to add to the very limited 'on the ground' information available to us.
The solar ray deflection measurements to determine ice thickness, plus those comments at Neven’s over the many years that have proven more often wrong than right? Like the predictions of summer wall-to-wall clear skies (the Big Blue or something like that) done during some recent years that ended with cloudest summers? Yes, yes, very valuable.

Why do we have a thread called ‘what the buoys are telling’, and not one ‘What Wayne is telling’ given his invaluable on the ground insights?

Sorry I like the guy, he seems nice and all and always responds to everyone very civic way, but he is at odds with established scientific facts, and one has to reject that from the outset.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Rod on October 21, 2018, 01:41:38 AM

Sorry I like the guy, he seems nice and all and always responds to everyone very civic way, but he is at odds with established scientific facts, and one has to reject that from the outset.

How many times have you been to the arctic to take measurements?   Im guessing you are reading from an undergraduate thermodynamics textbook and pretending to be an expert.   College text books are great for talking about theory under ideal conditions in the lab.  However, I have been involved in science for almost 30 years, and theory almost never matches reality. 

We have very little observational data from the arctic.  Wayne did us a great service by taking measurements, in the arctic, and reporting them to us.  The real world is very different from what computer models and undergraduate text books say it is. 

I usually keep my mouth shut and just observe on this forum.  Almost everyone who contributes to this forum is really smart.  But lately people who are overbearing, and often times wrong, are dictating the direction of discussion and ruining it for everyone. 

There are many, many things we don't know about the arctic.  If you have a theory great!   But don't call it "established scientific fact" unless you can point to undisputed peer reviewed journal articles that have established those facts through observational data. 

 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 21, 2018, 05:59:15 AM
Sorry for the can of worms I proffered, but I'm glad to see the refutations.  I trust I'll remember this in the future.  (I recall the original "-10C air temp before first ice" was a personal 'general' observation of a person who lives or works along an Arctic shore.)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on October 21, 2018, 09:25:34 AM
It seems that the "-11" or "-10" degrees needed before sea ice forms discussion is doomed to repeat it self regularly. As we apparently all know by now, this is not based on scientific fact but on the close observations of a single individual who seems to know what he was doing.

Those of us who have direct experience of cold climates are aware that sea-ice does not usually form in mildly frosty weather. Around the coast of Iceland sea-ice never forms, except in very rare cases in sheltered harbours, but then again winter temperatures along the coastline very rarely fall below -5 degrees C.

In Denmark, sea-ice does form every few years during prolonged cold spells where temperatures over land fall well below -10 degrees for several days running. Sea-ice starts to grow in harbours and sheltered inlets along the east coast, where there is little to no wave action, but never along the more exposed west coast.

So my pesonal experience of cold-but-not-arctic environments tells me that air temperatures of e.g. -5 are not enough to start sea ice formation in open water. But I must admit that I have no idea whether -5 is enough to start ice growing between ice floes.

Once again a vista of ignorance opens up, begging for the intrepid explorer to chart and measure.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on October 21, 2018, 10:21:58 AM
Perhaps we need an ice physics thread?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 21, 2018, 11:31:03 AM

Quote
New sea ice starts from 3 important concurring factors: -1.8 C water, little or no sea waves and colder than -11 C surface temperatures....

...  there is an apparent thermal balance,  where as,  colder than -11 C  surface air seems
imperative for sea ice to form.WD October 4, 2016   

So far -11 degrees for sea ice formation looks like a load of....
There is an observation showing a correlation and if you can't think of a model to fit the data then it's probably your understanding that's a load and not the observation! Don't dismiss observations because you don't like them.

My guess is the water can't lose enough heat rapidly enough through cooling air. The cooling top layer of the ocean becomes dense and circulates as it loses heat. You end up with a pattern of insulating cold air and circulating water that warms as you circulate the top 100m of the ocean. Not conducive to forming ice.

I thought that it was that the IR loss of both the ocean and the atmosphere producing the correct conditions for ice formation. An under those conditions the atmosphere is -11C and the water at freezing point. The freezing water is going to make a lot of heat as ice forms.
I rather thought that I would be shot down, but it was worth it.

My conclusion is - is that once again one is in an on-going lack of data situation. Wayne's observations were about one location in the Arctic (the Archipelago) over one small? period of time. That location includes lots of land(?) which is a very different environment than, say, the Central Arctic, itself very different from, say, , Hudson Bay. I am sure that his observations were methodical and accurate but surely not sufficient to make a general rule applicable to all the Arctic (and not to the Northern Caspian Sea - see a post some way back).

The comments on the -11 air temperature "rule of thumb" illustrated the many factors involved in sea ice formation, but none pointed to a study or series of studies that collected data over many locations with different environmental conditions. So is it a case of knowing all the parameters but not being able to put values on them?

I look at a current GFS map of Arctic temperatures as of today and it is nearly all below freezing.  Do I follow blindly the -11 degree rule and as a generalisation say there is not much of the Arctic where ice is going to form?

I am confused.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Thomas Barlow on October 21, 2018, 11:36:23 AM
The Russian scientist Vladamir Vize ( the island was called after him ) was the Godfather of ice formation. There is a rather scary looking picture of him here on Wiki !

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Wiese

Maybe earlier in the season temps close to -10 are needed to get things going but nilas will form with air temps at -7.
IIRC the recent thin new ice that formed in the western Beaufort temps were not much lower than -7 C (according to nullschool)

I don't suppose plastic in the Arctic Ocean will help the situation.
12,000 pieces of microplastic particles per litre of sea ice (and a lot in the water presumably)
Anyone done the physics on that?

The Arctic Ocean is now "a major global sink for plastic pollution, many times more concentrated than the well-known great Pacific garbage patch."

I also think I heard that algae and bacteria cling to microplastics. Another complicating factor.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/24/record-levels-of-plastic-discovered-in-arctic-sea-ice

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Sterks on October 21, 2018, 12:37:58 PM
Im guessing you are reading from an undergraduate thermodynamics textbook and pretending to be an expert.
This guess, I can tell you, is wrong. The rest is your opinion.

There are many, many things we don't know about the arctic.  If you have a theory great!   But don't call it "established scientific fact" unless you can point to undisputed peer reviewed journal articles that have established those facts through observational data. 
Ok, perhaps it is the way Wayne asserted that "surface temperature". Does he mean water surface? In which case I don't have to go to any peer-reviewed paper: the continuity of temperature across the interface of bodies on different states (solid-liquid-gas) is something I have measured in the lab, imposed as boundary conditions in the computational lab, and frankly I hope it is "common understanding" in this high-level educated forum.

If he means 2m temperature, or temperature measured at land nearby the coast where he is or was doing his ice measurements, then that is a different story. I suscribe to what Binntho and Tor say above. A temperature well under freezing (as measured in land, near the freezing ocean) is required for a period of time because water is releasing its latent heat, and if you go down near the water and place a thermometer near the surface, it will be nonetheless -2C. That the (land) temperature has to be under -11C, for some uncertain period of time, well I doubt it. Everything will depend on which sea is this being measured and what type of sea (shallow or deep, salty or less salty) it is, if ocean currents reach the place, what was the ocean temperature at the surface and in depth to start with, if the location is open coast or some narrow inlet, etc etc.

Then we have temperatures well into the ocean. As people are observing these days, freezing is happening with now-casts showing 2M air temperatures of around -5C. Not so far from -1.8C. This year, for instance, the Beaufort sea has not warmed as much as other years during summer, so we are observing this flash refreeze around the ice remains that almost disappeared. The reason is simple, temperatures did not build up much above freezing, and not much time and not much low temperatures are required to get the water surface at freezing temperature and the overall heat balance negative. Ocean in relative calm, absent of heat transport from beneath, and of mechanical effects that would delay the formation of sizeable ice structures (not the delay of freezing certainly), well there you go.

It is nothing against the person of Wayne, but he has a PUBLIC blog where he does PUBLIC claims, and as such one can criticize his public persona for doing such bold claims that, honestly, do not make much sense to me, and open up the door to pseudo-science. Like Goddard, Watts, Trump and the likes are routinely (and correctly IMO) criticized here.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on October 21, 2018, 07:15:36 PM

Yes. We need more data. I am sure there is enough information and speculation in this thread to design a really good experiment. Now we just need someone to get the grant to do the research! It's really interesting that the one observation we have is so at odds from what one expects from simple thermodynamics.

It might be that a good model that fits observations will be widely applicable, and possibly give us more insight as to just how downwelling IR affects the freezing of the Arctic.

ps. I repressed how science funding works: Build the model, get the results, and then perhaps get a grant to do the work.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 21, 2018, 09:08:25 PM
Three seas had similar weather:
Chukchi - warm surface water, medium salinity, late freezing
ESS - cold surface water, low salinity, average freezing
Laptev - cool surface water, high salinity, late freezing

Beaufort had colder weather - cold surface water, low salinity, early freezing well under way

Whatever the temperature needs to be, it's not cold enough to freeze all of the CAB yet.
Uni Bremen SMOS thin ice thickness, oct10-20
(colours around the pole hole aren't an indication of ice thickness)

Mercator 0m salinity, oct20
Wipneus regional extent, oct20
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 21, 2018, 09:14:50 PM
DMI N 80 average temp hasn't dropped below -8C for about a month and a half longer than normal, which is a record. Next year the only thickish safeish ice will be just north of CAA. Greenland looks set to be the northern hemisphere's center of cold within a decade. Weird weird weather is coming.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: be cause on October 22, 2018, 12:08:07 AM
DMI N 80 average temp hasn't dropped below -8C for about a month and a half longer than normal, which is a record.

sorry GSY but it was -9'C  4 weeks ago and - 10'C today

Next year the only thickish safeish ice will be just north of CAA. Greenland looks set to be the northern hemisphere's center of cold within a decade. Weird weird weather is coming ]

Little arguement tonight as it's below -40'C again over central Greenland . I warned friends as far away as S.Spain yesterday that that cold was headed Western Europe's way . Tonight I see 'Arctic cold' on the bbc long range  forecast .. not strictly accurate ..

living as I do in N. Ireland I keep an eye on Greenland .. my big neighbour . I don't look forward to a planet with a tilted cap .. b.c.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Eco-Author on October 22, 2018, 12:55:04 AM

Next year the only thickish safeish ice will be just north of CAA. Greenland looks set to be the northern hemisphere's center of cold within a decade. Weird weird weather is coming ]



We've got to try to be smart about these things... For all of us seeking a safe place for the collapse or extreme storms, We all understand that the North atlantic (where the cool pool meets the heat of Europe will be one of the most likely places for super storms.  I'd thing the runnoff zone on the Western side down around Newfoundland would also be a big zone for storms and indeed up over greenland to whatever PAC is left N. of greenland.  One Harvey sized rain bomb on the interior of greenland could flush the ice out to see SUPER fast! 


As the last remaining cold spot, we can best assume GREENLAND will be under attack from LOWS constantly eating away at it.  IF it was 30+C for over a month over britain this past year, I see no reason why such a High would not develop over Greenland... 90-F there for a month would be SHOCKING
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 22, 2018, 01:03:59 AM
does anyone know of modelling done with a "tilted cap"? this idea has really fascinated me for a while and i believe we are heading there very soon. i don't give too much credence to models, but they have their uses. also, are there any weather wonks who have their own ideas. thanks.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 22, 2018, 01:13:37 AM
For all of us seeking a safe place for the collapse or extreme storms...

This is pretty obvious IMO. The northern hemisphere will undergo extreme changes in climate. Every ecosystem will be ****ed.  Mad Max dust storm terribleness most places. The southern hemisphere should be more resilient but it will probably be too hot most places (meaning too much of a deviation from normal for the ecosystem to adapt). Thus being near an ocean will be good cuz oceans won't be able to heat up very easily. Also, being close to Antarctica's ice is another stabilizer. There really is only one place on earth that fits the description: Patagonia. See you there.

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: LDorey on October 22, 2018, 03:34:27 AM
Regarding the -11 freezing rule of thumb clearly there a ton of scientific holes in it ( probably why its called a rule of thumb) but I bet there's some temp X you won't consistently see in an area until the water hits the magic -1.8 and all the warm water at the top is mixed out, before then the heat lost to the air doesn't really allow the temp to drop to lower than -10, ( ignoring transitory events caused by wind, storms, etc) Anyway my theory is that X is pretty close to -11, and as long as we keep that in mind it's useful and we no Cray super computer req'd....anyway that's my theory that dovetails with the the crazy 80 north dmi awd lack of fdd. And there is lots of warm water this year that's going to freeze over (hopefully), so it should be easy to verify (or debunk).
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Ktb on October 22, 2018, 07:26:37 AM
Discuss collapse in the appropriate threads please!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 22, 2018, 08:25:52 AM
October 9-21.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Sleepy on October 22, 2018, 08:27:29 AM
living as I do in N. Ireland I keep an eye on Greenland .. my big neighbour . I don't look forward to a planet with a tilted cap .. b.c.
It depends on how one perceives the world.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on October 22, 2018, 08:52:30 AM
For all of us seeking a safe place for the collapse or extreme storms...

Every ecosystem will be ****ed.  Mad Max dust storm terribleness most places.

Dust storms? In a world where the Arctic is no longer a desert and there will be much more water vapour in the NH midlatitudes?
I very much doubt it.

Sorry about the offtopic...
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 22, 2018, 08:55:25 AM
October 9-21.
Thanks Aluminium! The two ice growth areas towrds Siberia are interesting. Is there a reason they're located the way they are? A question for speculation at least for me.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Thomas Barlow on October 22, 2018, 10:52:25 AM
Arctic Ocean sea-ice is at the lowest extent on record for this date.
(bottom graph includes 2007)
https://tinyurl.com/yafst6ob

( Northern hemisphere sea-ice is about 4th lowest: https://tinyurl.com/mach5ge )
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 22, 2018, 11:26:55 AM
Discuss collapse in the appropriate threads please!
Well said, Ktb
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 22, 2018, 04:26:57 PM
The to-date arctic sea ice extent for 2007 is now the lowest extent, & 2007 is soon to be passed by 2016 sea ice low.....
With all this sea ice... "decrease of the increase", it will be very interesting to see what the to-date sea ice extent of 2018 will bring in these future weeks, since to-date 2018 sea ice extent is rivaling 2012, 2007, & 2016, & a "long term" 2018 High Arctic high temperature is presently reigning.
As stated above, to-date 2016 sea ice low established itself as the lowest of any satellite record to-date. However, while all other years gained more sea ice, 2018 Arctic sea ice tiny gains are presently pacing with 2016 & even a trace lower, right now. In the weeks ahead tho, are 2016's wide & record lows & even sea ice LOSSES, during periods of dramatic sea ice gains. It just seems tough to see, that 2018 can continue to track with 2016, without even more warmth pouring into the High Arctic. Present short term predictions seem to indicate that cold sliding off the Greenland Ice Sheet (with some help from Canadian archipelago?) should direct itself deeper into the High Arctic & blunt any possibility of great increases in 2018 High Arctic heat, which are  already 8degC over average.   
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: harpy on October 22, 2018, 04:27:49 PM
Update:

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 22, 2018, 05:38:27 PM
The DMI 80N temperature  (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php)is currently just about where it was this time the past 3 years, within a few days or a few degrees.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: harpy on October 22, 2018, 06:16:29 PM
Do you have a graph of the previous years, rather than just some average line?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Stephan on October 22, 2018, 06:33:46 PM
Do you have a graph of the previous years, rather than just some average line?
You can watch every single year here: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
and the anomaly here: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n_anomaly.uk.php
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: dnem on October 22, 2018, 07:03:50 PM
And Zach Labe has a nice version here: http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 22, 2018, 07:35:54 PM
I am with A-team(?) on the over reliance on temperatures North of 80 from DMI. Being such a small proportion of the Arctic Ocean is one thing, another is that it can be downright misleading. 

e.g. The two images from GFS attached show lowish anomalies North of 80 but high anomalies in an arc from the western edge of the CAA all the way round the Arctic to Novaya Zemla.

I so wish Tealight aka Nico Sun did estimates of FDDs for the Arctic Ocean as a whole, or even better sea by sea as he does for Albedo warming potential. All I want for Xmas is a....
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Stephan on October 22, 2018, 08:26:51 PM
Does anyone know which area Climate Reanalyzer uses when it comes to "2m Temperature Anomaly" in the Arctic (e.g. today it is +3,1 °C)?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 22, 2018, 08:29:20 PM
The DMI 80N temperature  (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php)is currently just about where it was this time the past 3 years, within a few days or a few degrees.

A few degrees, almost all of which have been on the high side, not the low side.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 22, 2018, 08:33:07 PM
I am with A-team(?) on the over reliance on temperatures North of 80 from DMI. Being such a small proportion of the Arctic Ocean is one thing, another is that it can be downright misleading. 

DMI 80 N is about the same as sticking your finger in your mouth and then pointing it up in the air.  I doesn't give much detail, but it tells you which way the wind is blowing.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 22, 2018, 09:37:54 PM
Does anyone know which area Climate Reanalyzer uses when it comes to "2m Temperature Anomaly" in the Arctic (e.g. today it is +3,1 °C)?

Arctic av temp 65 to 90 degrees north.
Anomaly = difference from 1979-2000 average.

Quote from https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#hrrr.conus-lc.t2

Quote
Temperature Anomaly Maps
The variable Temperature 2m Anomaly is available for the GFS model. Temperature anomaly (at 2 meters above the surface) refers to the departure of the current forecasted temperature from a climate baseline. Climate Reanalyzer uses a 1979-2000 climate baseline derived from the reanalysis of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSR/CFSV2). This baseline is chosen over the more typical 1981-2010 climate normal for the simple reason that it better approximates historical climatology, as shown here in relation to a 1880-2014 global land-ocean temperature index from NASA GISS.

GFS temperature anomaly maps for the World, Arctic, and Antarctic display at the right of the image a list of area-weighted average anomaly values for the World, Northern Hemisphere (Eq-90°N), Southern Hemisphere (Eq-90°S), Arctic (65°N-90°N), Antarctic (65°S-90°S), and Tropics (25°S-25°N).
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: sja45uk on October 23, 2018, 11:12:45 AM
I have Googled hard but cannot seem to find a value in 1000 km^2 for the surface area of the Central Arctic Basin. I want to produce a table that together with a list of areas for the other arctic regions (as used for freezing data) adds up to an 'official' area of the Arctic Ocean as defined by the International Hydrological Organization.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 23, 2018, 11:43:27 AM
CAA export is slowing, it looks like the Mclure Strait has mostly frozen.
ascat, day285-295.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: sedziobs on October 23, 2018, 03:46:01 PM
Looks like the Byam Martin Channel (http://uphere.ca/sites/default/files/page-35-map.jpg) is still moving.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Tealight on October 23, 2018, 04:33:16 PM
I so wish Tealight aka Nico Sun did estimates of FDDs for the Arctic Ocean as a whole, or even better sea by sea as he does for Albedo warming potential. All I want for Xmas is a....

I think he wants it as well, but he has only a limited amount of time and if he does a new gridded FDD analysis it will be a full FDD map of the Arctic and not just a few new graphs.

Currently he is busy with a daily & year-round combined Albedo Warming Potential for Land & Ocean (see map below)

The data is only available since 1997 and he doesn't have a regional breakdown yet for this projection.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 23, 2018, 04:43:50 PM
I so wish Tealight aka Nico Sun did estimates of FDDs for the Arctic Ocean as a whole, or even better sea by sea as he does for Albedo warming potential. All I want for Xmas is a....

I think he wants it as well, but he has only a limited amount of time and if he does a new gridded FDD analysis it will be a full FDD map of the Arctic and not just a few new graphs.

Currently he is busy with a daily & year-round combined Albedo Warming Potential for Land & Ocean (see map below)

The data is only available since 1997 and he doesn't have a regional breakdown yet for this projection.

You have to admit it was worth a try, and yes, I would have assumed that the visuals Nico Sun (aka Tealight?) produces are simply a by-product from a comprehensive database with many uses. But now we know that there is something new and significant in the works, and I can nag him? them both? about that.

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 23, 2018, 08:37:50 PM
Looks like the Byam Martin Channel (http://uphere.ca/sites/default/files/page-35-map.jpg) is still moving.
Yes, though probably not for long, and the Nares.
worldview, nares strait, viirs brightness temperature band15n, oct23
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Eco-Author on October 23, 2018, 09:45:42 PM
In the summer, we'd have called such temp anomalies a blow torch and I don't remember a one... Now we have a month long blow torch.  2016 was jaw dropping as it was
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 23, 2018, 10:23:54 PM
In the summer, we'd have called such temp anomalies a blow torch and I don't remember a one... Now we have a month long blow torch.  2016 was jaw dropping as it was

Equable climate, WACC...same thing.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 23, 2018, 10:34:48 PM
In the summer, we'd have called such temp anomalies a blow torch and I don't remember a one... Now we have a month long blow torch.  2016 was jaw dropping as it was
Not sure blow torch really applies in winter (if ever). Low power defroster maybe?

Jaxa has a more detailed view of freezing at the ice edge, sep1-oct22, every 2days
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 23, 2018, 11:27:12 PM
.....2018 Arctic sea ice tiny (extent) gains are presently pacing with 2016 & even a trace lower, right now. .... It just seems tough to see, that 2018 can continue to track with 2016, without even more warmth pouring into the High Arctic......which are  already 8degC over average.   
It appears that 2018 Arctic sea ice VOLUME echoes the present lack of strong gains of sea ice extent.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: sark on October 24, 2018, 02:08:14 AM
In the summer, we'd have called such temp anomalies a blow torch and I don't remember a one... Now we have a month long blow torch.  2016 was jaw dropping as it was

Eco-author: surface temperatures in the arctic have an upper limit very near to 0C as long as there is ice to melt.  You can see this in the DMI 80N temperature anomaly charts.  Even though 80N looks at such a small area, it is generally true of the Arctic as a whole.

2018 is joining a group of catastrophic years in the Arctic, 2007, 2012, 2016, although I fear it will be overshadowed by 2019 with this setup.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 24, 2018, 02:19:05 AM
2018 is joining a group of catastrophic years in the Arctic, 2007, 2012, 2016, although I fear it will be overshadowed by 2019 with this setup.

You can point to the date in late December 2015 when the Arctic Climate changed...at least to within a day or two.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 24, 2018, 07:30:59 AM
October 19-23.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 24, 2018, 04:29:37 PM
In the summer, we'd have called such temp anomalies a blow torch and I don't remember a one... Now we have a month long blow torch.  2016 was jaw dropping as it was

Equable climate, WACC...same thing.
Not the same, WACC is only for cold seasons, Equable climate for the whole year, not that it matters much. Equable climate is if Greenland has melted away, which it is very much trying to do. Well semantic difference maybe.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: colchonero on October 24, 2018, 05:06:46 PM
Laptev seems to be freezing finally when I look at that animation.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on October 24, 2018, 06:20:08 PM

And it typically freezes very quickly, being shallow and dominated by freshwater input from the Siberian rivers. It's rate of freeze is going to be interesting to watch.

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on October 24, 2018, 06:57:08 PM
In the summer, we'd have called such temp anomalies a blow torch and I don't remember a one... Now we have a month long blow torch.  2016 was jaw dropping as it was

Equable climate, WACC...same thing.
Not the same, WACC is only for cold seasons, Equable climate for the whole year, not that it matters much. Equable climate is if Greenland has melted away, which it is very much trying to do. Well semantic difference maybe.

OK, but you got my point.  The cool Summers and HOT winters go together.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: harpy on October 24, 2018, 09:12:42 PM
The only part of the laptev that's freezing is the distant borders with the central arctic ocean?  I didn't see any ice along the cost. 

Maybe I'm looking at the wrong image?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 24, 2018, 09:20:58 PM

And it typically freezes very quickly, being shallow and dominated by freshwater input from the Siberian rivers. It's rate of freeze is going to be interesting to watch.
Yes. We'll soon see if higher sea surface salinity makes a difference this year. 2016 still had some open water north of Severnaya Zemlya on this date, but ice had already reached FJL.

The top 2 images in the first animation are from the Mercator Ocean model, salinity at 0m and 34m. The bottom three are based on satellite data. Uni-Bremen SMOS, Uni-Hamburg AMSR2 and JAXA RGB. Oct1-20 is a little early to include SMOS so colours around the pole hole aren't an indication of ice thickness. Animation runs from oct1-23, ~8MB. (click on the image to run)
All the images are fixed scale but they 'dither' after conversion to gif in this case.

Second animation is uhh-amsr2, oct23 (or 24) from 2013-2018 (1.3MB)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: colchonero on October 24, 2018, 10:09:56 PM
The only part of the laptev that's freezing is the distant borders with the central arctic ocean?  I didn't see any ice along the cost. 

Maybe I'm looking at the wrong image?
I think you're looking at the right thing, just it is not an image, it's 4-day animation GIF, you have to click on it, to see progress during that period
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: ReverendMilkbone on October 24, 2018, 10:46:15 PM
NSIDC puts the (at least 15%) ice extent below 2012...

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on October 24, 2018, 11:08:08 PM
The only part of the laptev that's freezing is the distant borders with the central arctic ocean?  I didn't see any ice along the cost. 

Maybe I'm looking at the wrong image?
I think you're looking at the right thing, just it is not an image, it's 4-day animation GIF, you have to click on it, to see progress during that period

And there is a tongue of blue (new thin ice) extending from the bottom of the main pack in towards the centre of the open Laptev Sea according to this enlarged Bremen image from 231018.

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 25, 2018, 02:04:15 AM
....2018 Arctic sea ice tiny gains are presently pacing with 2016 & even a trace lower, right now. In the weeks ahead tho, are 2016's wide & record lows & even sea ice LOSSES, during periods of dramatic sea ice gains. It just seems tough to see, that 2018 can continue to track with 2016...... 
Just a few days later & already 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has risen 130,000 square kilometers more than 2016. Unless the Greenland Ice Sheet cold stops sliding off Greenland into the High Arctic, which is beginning to repress anomalously high High Arctic temperatures, to-date 2016 Arctic sea ice should dramatically continue as the lowest extent at this time of year, of any satellite year.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 25, 2018, 05:17:47 AM
First day of NATICE gains along Hudson Bay's shore / refreeze in Foxe Basin now almost 50% complete:

(https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif)

PS according to Canucks we also have first ice on its eastern shoreline now...

(https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS31CT/20181024180000_WIS31CT_0010291044.gif)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 25, 2018, 09:29:34 AM
Ummm......With mild to moderate 18meter onshore winds on the Northwest U.S. coastline coupled with strong jet stream flow, above average SST warmth moves across the country. This flow, instead of making a great increase in temperature, appears to be thrusting against the vast, anomalous cold that has gripped mid-Canada & the U.S. for the last (month+?). The cold is being moved to the East. Last fall/winter, the Canadian anomalous cold (which occasionally reached into the U.S.) lasted not only in fall but (all?) through the winter. It will be interesting to see if the cold can sustain itself against the directed extra western warmth or if the warmth will continue.   
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Iain on October 25, 2018, 03:23:30 PM
Extent for day of year now lowest since '79 on NSIDC.

Oct 24th 2018: 6.546 M km^2
Oct 24th 2016 (not shown for clarity) 6.622 M km^2
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on October 25, 2018, 06:29:16 PM

The top 2 images in the first animation are from the Mercator Ocean model, salinity at 0m and 34m. The bottom three are based on satellite data. Uni-Bremen SMOS, Uni-Hamburg AMSR2 and JAXA RGB. Oct1-20 is a little early to include SMOS so colours around the pole hole aren't an indication of ice thickness. Animation runs from oct1-23, ~8MB. (click on the image to run)
All the images are fixed scale but they 'dither' after conversion to gif in this case.


I do wish they would use the same salinity scale for each depth. It's bloody hard to compare depths.

I wonder if the Atlantification we are seeing in the Barents and southern Arctic has started to breakdown the pycnocline in the Laptev part of the Eurasian Basin. Earlier this year we saw that large polynya open, and, afterall, that's were the Atlantic waters end up before turning back north.

The more saline waters (presumably warmer Atlantic Waters) are flowing south along the Severnaya Zemlya shelf edge and seemingly dispersing into the Southern end of the Eurasian Basin encroaching south onto the Laptev shelf itself. It's hard to know if this is typical for this time of year, as it is usually covered with ice!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 25, 2018, 08:22:18 PM
It looks like, on the surface, there is a strong freshwater flow from the kara sea (from the River Ob?) that flows into the Laptev, probably causingenabling the arc of flash freezing.
The mercator model is starting to look quite accurate (despite the scales)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Rod on October 26, 2018, 05:15:00 AM
Quote from: RoxTheGeologist

I wonder if the Atlantification we are seeing in the Barents and southern Arctic has started to breakdown the pycnocline in the Laptev part of the Eurasian Basin.

Google, Igor V. Polyakov.  He has a couple of recent papers I think you will find interesting.  I can't link them because I'm on a phone, but they are open access.

His papers won't answer all of your questions, but they are very interesting. 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 26, 2018, 07:58:03 AM
litesong; October 25, 2018, 02:04:15 AM
Just a few days later & already 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has risen 130,000 square kilometers more than 2016......to-date 2016 Arctic sea ice should dramatically continue as the lowest extent at this time of year, of any satellite year.
/////////
A day later, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has jumped to a quarter million square kilometers more than 2016.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 26, 2018, 08:01:34 AM
October 21-25.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on October 26, 2018, 11:26:51 AM
Thanks Aluminium. I see the ESS arm has been working out and developed some muscles.  :D

Laptev closing in on all sides, finally.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Iain on October 26, 2018, 03:40:37 PM
2018 growth has accelerated, 2016 is now the lowest extent for October 25th, 2018 2nd lowest.

Is there such a measure as extent days or volume days, or average extent/volume for a month or so either side of the max and min?

The PIOMAS page publishes a graph of summer minimum and winter maximum volumes with a linear trend of loss per decade.

Taking only the max and mins each year yields spikey data, the averages above I expect to be smoother, so the observed values would deviate less from a linear trend line.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on October 26, 2018, 05:46:17 PM
Quote from: RoxTheGeologist

I wonder if the Atlantification we are seeing in the Barents and southern Arctic has started to breakdown the pycnocline in the Laptev part of the Eurasian Basin.

Google, Igor V. Polyakov.  He has a couple of recent papers I think you will find interesting.  I can't link them because I'm on a phone, but they are open access.

His papers won't answer all of your questions, but they are very interesting.

I read the one about the Atlantification breaking down the pycnocline alone the Svalbard FJL front. I think we might be seeing that Atlantification now extending along the steep shelf to the west of Severnaya Zelyma and into the southern tip of the Eurasian basin.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 26, 2018, 09:19:49 PM
October 21-25.
I have read here in the past how ice must grow from the coast or adjacent to existing ice, therefore once we get a blue ocean situation the refreeze might be very delayed (if at all). This animation is a fine example of how given enough cold temps over enough time the surface of open water will freeze even when not adjacent to any coast or other ice.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 26, 2018, 11:43:21 PM
As the Arctic scorches... the only explanation for the attached is albedo, IMO.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: harpy on October 27, 2018, 03:13:20 AM
October 21-25.
I have read here in the past how ice must grow from the coast or adjacent to existing ice, therefore once we get a blue ocean situation the refreeze might be very delayed (if at all). This animation is a fine example of how given enough cold temps over enough time the surface of open water will freeze even when not adjacent to any coast or other ice.

That's not what I'm observing.

Ice is growing from the pre existing ice outward towards the shores, at least for now.  Maybe this is because we're early in the "freezing season"?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Alexander555 on October 27, 2018, 09:18:24 AM
BBR, probably not only albedo. Is it not possible that the same factors that create that cold anomaly, also create an accumulation of heat in the ocean ? If that's the case we shouls see it in spring.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on October 27, 2018, 09:23:48 AM
I don´t really see what albedo has to do with the extreme cold measured in Greenland. For one thing, the sun hardly glances the area, and besides there isn't any more snow there now than usual (it's a giant glacier!)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 27, 2018, 11:36:52 AM
This should probably go in the Arctic Background thread, but it is freezing season news so....

Yesterday I had the wondrously unexpected pleasure of meeting Sir Wally Herbert (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wally_Herbert)'s wife, daughter and granddaughter:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1055878754055151619

http://youtu.be/MPWOzu_EVI8
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 27, 2018, 03:56:20 PM
This should probably go in the Arctic Background thread, but it is freezing season news so....

A powerful video for someone who already understands the world of hurt that is hurtling towards us but, for those who don't, videos about the Inuit or the demise of polar bears is pointless and easily dismissed.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 27, 2018, 06:16:08 PM
litesong; October 25, 2018, 02:04:15 AM
Just a few days later & already 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has risen 130,000 square kilometers more than 2016......to-date 2016 Arctic sea ice should dramatically continue as the lowest extent at this time of year, of any satellite year.
/////////
A day later, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has jumped to a quarter million square kilometers more than 2016.
///////////
A day later, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has jumped to 440,000 square kilometers more than 2016. The 2018 sea ice rise has even passed the 2012, so 2018 is already in to-date 3rd place lowest sea ice.
 As stated in earlier posts, cold sliding off the Greenland Ice Sheet & then proceeding into the High Arctic is reducing heat in the High Arctic, allowing increasing Arctic sea ice to form. I had NOT expected to-date 2018 sea ice to keep up with the record 2016 low sea ice. & the record high temperature anomalies of 2016 High Arctic are still ahead.   
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 28, 2018, 02:26:21 AM
This should probably go in the Arctic Background thread, but it is freezing season news so....

Yesterday I had the wondrously unexpected pleasure of meeting Sir Wally Herbert (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wally_Herbert)'s wife, daughter and granddaughter:

Egad.  That video was filmed in *2006*!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 28, 2018, 07:09:31 AM
October 23-27.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on October 28, 2018, 12:38:22 PM
From Rick Thoman:

"Beaufort Sea is now largely iced-up. The area with >15% ice cover reached 95% of the basin area on Oct 23 (@NSIDC data), making this the earliest "ice-over" of the Beaufort since 2002".

The 40-year trend of ice-over date tells a different story. Trend is showing the Beaufort is icing over about 1 month later than it did circa 1980.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 28, 2018, 01:30:02 PM
Egad.  That video was filmed in *2006*!

Quite so.

Kari has considerable experience in such matters. She is the one on the left (https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1056155230818263041), and the one on the right!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 28, 2018, 03:07:54 PM
This world SST graph tells a story from my early childhood:
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst/
My grandparents took me to the Pacific shores in northern Washington state in 1955, early June. Generally, I had a great time, while in swim trunks walking the shores & wading a bit into the incoming surf. They asked me to wade a bit further out, crouch down & they would take pictures of the surf breaking around me. As is usual, people fool with the camera & take too much time before taking pictures. Meanwhile, the cold surf (note the graph) had broken over me several times & I was getting really cold. Finally, they took some pictures & all they got were pictures of me looking behind me at the cold water that was pouring on me..... not one showed my face. Yeah, that water was cold (lower 50degF?).     
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 28, 2018, 08:54:50 PM
From Rick Thoman:

"Beaufort Sea is now largely iced-up. The area with >15% ice cover reached 95% of the basin area on Oct 23 (@NSIDC data), making this the earliest "ice-over" of the Beaufort since 2002".

The 40-year trend of ice-over date tells a different story. Trend is showing the Beaufort is icing over about 1 month later than it did circa 1980.
I guess the CAA might show a similar story. But as regards area, there has been a hiccup in the last two days for both the Beaufort and CAA - area in reverse gear.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 28, 2018, 09:08:20 PM
From Rick Thoman:

"Beaufort Sea is now largely iced-up. The area with >15% ice cover reached 95% of the basin area on Oct 23 (@NSIDC data), making this the earliest "ice-over" of the Beaufort since 2002".

The 40-year trend of ice-over date tells a different story. Trend is showing the Beaufort is icing over about 1 month later than it did circa 1980.
I guess the CAA might show a similar story. But as regards area, there has been a hiccup in the last two days for both the Beaufort and CAA - area in reverse gear.

The drop in CAA / Beaufort = ice heading for Baffin (IMO). The expansion in Baffin has been incredible the past few days.

Also: those CAA #s are incredible. Fastest refreeze in the satellite record this year?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 29, 2018, 02:44:05 AM
litesong; October 25, 2018, 02:04:15 AM
Just a few days later & already 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has risen 130,000 square kilometers more than 2016......to-date 2016 Arctic sea ice should dramatically continue as the lowest extent at this time of year, of any satellite year.
/////////
A day later, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has jumped to a quarter million square kilometers more than 2016.
///////////
A day later, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has jumped to 440,000 square kilometers more than 2016. The 2018 sea ice rise has even passed the 2012, so 2018 is already in to-date 3rd place lowest sea ice.
 As stated in earlier posts, cold sliding off the Greenland Ice Sheet & then proceeding into the High Arctic is reducing heat in the High Arctic, allowing increasing Arctic sea ice to form. I had NOT expected to-date 2018 sea ice to keep up with the record 2016 low sea ice. & the record high temperature anomalies of 2016 High Arctic are still ahead.
/////////
A day later, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has jumped to 560,000 square kilometers more than 2016.   
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Eco-Author on October 29, 2018, 09:09:19 AM
Was thinking the early CAA ice was mainly due to export through the Garlic Press and NWP?  Perhaps with that 'push' over... we are returning to more normal growth. 

With a Ridge over the Bearing, it was only natural a cold trough formed behind it over the CAA too... 

Just a general observation but every year we see the ice form all be it a more slowly but it still forms which leads me to doubt year long blue oceans bar some sort of Kelvin wave/intense mixing as ice continues to bottom out each year.  I for one argue we might just well be gone by the first blue ocean so waiting for it to make changes seems dumb!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 29, 2018, 11:24:09 AM
The wind changes and the ice lifts off.
Worldview, bt15n, nth greenland, oct27-28. https://tinyurl.com/y9mzwm8c

amsr2-uhh, foxe basin-baffin bay, sep6-oct28(1.8MB)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 29, 2018, 03:25:29 PM
Despite relatively high +ve temp anomalies on the Russian side and the Pacific entrance,  3 seas are continuing to rapidly gain ice, while Kara may be about to join them.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 30, 2018, 06:57:40 AM
October 25-29.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 30, 2018, 07:25:38 AM
Despite relatively high +ve temp anomalies on the Russian side and the Pacific entrance,  3 seas are continuing to rapidly gain ice, while Kara may be about to join them.
The North Atlantic Drift should restrengthen to prevent ice formation up there in the darkness to get a BOE for the whole year. This is a bit more complicated situation than some frozen pool in the river run, but not by much. If the pool is small enough the upstream rushing waters may keep it open for quite long into the winter. Thus I've imagined the remnant ice in the CAB would start to rotate quite quickly before a BOE can happen. Well maybe on the same year, so no predictive value here either.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on October 30, 2018, 09:27:41 AM
Always interesting to look through those 5 day progressions from Aluminium and observe the areas where ice is developing swiftly and where it is not.

The Laptev is closing in but still we have an area that is still north of 80 ( at circa 80 N 140 E ) that has developed very little since ice minimum. Is this the same area where we have seen early opening/polynya before in the Spring ? Was there suspicion that this section of the Arctic is prone to warm upwewlling and difficult to freeze ?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Thomas Barlow on October 30, 2018, 10:42:47 AM
As the Arctic scorches... the only explanation for the attached is albedo, IMO.
Greenland scientist, Jason Box, has said it has to do with the wavy jet-stream - due to climate-change.
https://youtu.be/N8ynlXXIdus
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 30, 2018, 05:40:02 PM
Always interesting to look through those 5 day progressions from Aluminium and observe the areas where ice is developing swiftly and where it is not.

The Laptev is closing in but still we have an area that is still north of 80 ( at circa 80 N 140 E ) that has developed very little since ice minimum. Is this the same area where we have seen early opening/polynya before in the Spring ? Was there suspicion that this section of the Arctic is prone to warm upwewlling and difficult to freeze ?

The Laptev Bite?

I speculated several years ago that the Lomonosov Ridge might be causing upwelling of warm, salty Atlantic waters that could be contributing to the Laptev Bite. The minimum depth of the ocean above the ridge is less than 400 meters whereas the Eurasian basin reaches a maximum depth of 5400 meters.  Of course, I have no idea what I am talking about. And I mean this, I pulled that one right out of my ass.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on October 30, 2018, 06:12:27 PM
Always interesting to look through those 5 day progressions from Aluminium and observe the areas where ice is developing swiftly and where it is not.

The Laptev is closing in but still we have an area that is still north of 80 ( at circa 80 N 140 E ) that has developed very little since ice minimum. Is this the same area where we have seen early opening/polynya before in the Spring ? Was there suspicion that this section of the Arctic is prone to warm upwewlling and difficult to freeze ?

If you look at the post uniquorn has been making, on the Salinity incursions, it suggests that Atlanticifaction of the Svalbard - FJL - Severnaya Zemlya slope may have reached the most south west end of the Eurasian basin. The open water is over the deeper shallows and may be warmer Atlantic waters shoaling over the shelf extension of the Lomonosov Ridge
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 30, 2018, 06:18:55 PM
Always interesting to look through those 5 day progressions from Aluminium and observe the areas where ice is developing swiftly and where it is not.

The Laptev is closing in but still we have an area that is still north of 80 ( at circa 80 N 140 E ) that has developed very little since ice minimum. Is this the same area where we have seen early opening/polynya before in the Spring ? Was there suspicion that this section of the Arctic is prone to warm upwewlling and difficult to freeze ?

If you look at the post uniquorn has been making, on the Salinity incursions, it suggests that Atlanticifaction of the Svalbard - FJL - Severnaya Zemlya slope may have reached the most south west end of the Eurasian basin. The open water is over the deeper shallows and may be warmer Atlantic waters shoaling over the shelf extension of the Lomonosov Ridge

Seems far more plausible.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 30, 2018, 11:42:14 PM
litesong; October 25, 2018, 02:04:15 AM
......to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has jumped to 440,000 square kilometers more than 2016. The 2018 sea ice rise has even passed the 2012, so 2018 is already in to-date 3rd place lowest sea ice.
 As stated in earlier posts, cold sliding off the Greenland Ice Sheet & then proceeding into the High Arctic is reducing heat in the High Arctic, allowing increasing Arctic sea ice to form. I had NOT expected to-date 2018 sea ice to keep up with the record 2016 low sea ice. & the record high temperature anomalies of 2016 High Arctic are still ahead.
/////////
A day later, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has jumped to 560,000 square kilometers more than 2016.
Yesterday, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent jumped to 700,000 square kilometers more than 2016. Today, for the first time in 5(?) days, 2018 Arctic sea ice only maintained its excess extent to 2016, still at 700,000 square kilometers.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on October 31, 2018, 04:34:22 PM
Yesterday, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent jumped to 700,000 square kilometers more than 2016. Today, for the first time in 5(?) days, 2018 Arctic sea ice only maintained its excess extent to 2016, still at 700,000 square kilometers.
To-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent jumped to 820,000 square kilometers more than 2016. During this yearly period of general strong sea ice gains, 2016 sea ice extent LOSSES are still in the calendar days ahead.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 31, 2018, 08:01:31 PM
I noticed this pressure map is for November 7, seven days out. I can honestly say I am always confused by pressure maps at any geopotential height and the corresponding temperatures or weather for a region. In this map, there is a significant low over the north Atlantic. I guess you are saying this will bring cold temperatures but the forecast for London is highs in the 50's with rain or, in other words, typically shitty weather for London.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/UKXX0085:1:UK
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 31, 2018, 08:03:06 PM
Oooops. Comment by bbr2314 that I was replying to has disappeared.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on October 31, 2018, 08:12:19 PM
Oooops. Comment by bbr2314 that I was replying to has disappeared.

this reminds me of asking some users who predicted the hudson would be frozen by the 15th of november still believe so?

i for my part don't believe that and think that hudson is holding out quite well. during summer there were repeated theories of very early refreeze of hudson and even more extreme predictions for greater parts of canada.

i personally do not believe in any wide spread re-glacification, after all the globe is warming and sooner or later retreat of the ice will happen everywhere.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 31, 2018, 10:40:09 PM
Oooops. Comment by bbr2314 that I was replying to has disappeared.

this reminds me of asking some users who predicted the hudson would be frozen by the 15th of november still believe so?

i for my part don't believe that and think that hudson is holding out quite well. during summer there were repeated theories of very early refreeze of hudson and even more extreme predictions for greater parts of canada.

i personally do not believe in any wide spread re-glacification, after all the globe is warming and sooner or later retreat of the ice will happen everywhere.
I did say 11/15 for Hudson Bay and it isn't holding out well, unless, you mean the Hudson River. Foxe Basin is almost completely iced and I think we are on track for 50-75% coverage in HB by 11/15 (my prediction was 75%).

CAA is frozen earlier than ever and HB will do the same. So why don't you go bother looking at some graphs before launching into a random attack on me?

Also, SH: I deleted post regarding GB because the cold air went down into North America this wrong, and not Europe. 500MB was a bit deceiving, oops.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 01, 2018, 12:30:14 AM
Foxe Basin, amsr2-uhh, oct20-30 (smos bremen inset)
Worldview, oct31.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on November 01, 2018, 02:01:44 AM
I did say 11/15 for Hudson Bay and it isn't holding out well, unless, you mean the Hudson River. Foxe Basin is almost completely iced and I think we are on track for 50-75% coverage in HB by 11/15 (my prediction was 75%).

CAA is frozen earlier than ever and HB will do the same. So why don't you go bother looking at some graphs
I think we are not on track for either 75% or 50% coverage of HB by 11/15. I think we will get there on 12/1, following the usual pattern.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 01, 2018, 02:19:28 AM
I did say 11/15 for Hudson Bay and it isn't holding out well, unless, you mean the Hudson River. Foxe Basin is almost completely iced and I think we are on track for 50-75% coverage in HB by 11/15 (my prediction was 75%).

CAA is frozen earlier than ever and HB will do the same. So why don't you go bother looking at some graphs
I think we are not on track for either 75% or 50% coverage of HB by 11/15. I think we will get there on 12/1, following the usual pattern.

I disagree, SSTs are cooler than 2015 (the leading recent year) and the refreeze has advanced much farther already. Here is HYCOM comparison for 10/31 (don't use projected out -- it has been biased warm recently).

(https://media.giphy.com/media/4HtnJJ3FWhbxJtdLzB/giphy.gif)

I think we are going to see a very rapid advance from the NE as Foxe Basin's expanding pack meets the freshwater lens in NE Hudson Bay, as well as from the NW. The PV looks to relocate over Hudson Bay's vicinity by D10 as well, which should accelerate things further.

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: sark on November 01, 2018, 02:30:32 AM
Oscar headed for the polar cell as extratropical cyclone.  GFS responds appropriately.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 01, 2018, 06:22:12 AM
There is growing consensus for PV displacement into Canada / HB. Once that rolls over HB, we could see a pretty quick freeze as the periphery is already sub-32F and the rest is very close or already there (outside of the southern bits and James Bay, although even James Bay's periphery is also freezing).

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018110100/fv3p_T2m_namer_31.png)

Obviously ^ is also accompanied by HEAT in Bering and Barentz. Especially Bering. But look at Canada -- those temps in Nunavut are 25C below average, and by D8+, widespread areas are seeing -30 to -40C temps.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018110100/fv3p_T2m_namer_36.png)

The EURO is very similar btw -- wonder how 00z looks.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018103112/ecmwf_T850_namer_9.png)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on November 01, 2018, 07:18:43 AM
Hudson refreeze should be mostly complete by 11/15.

Officially have decent amount of second year ice that will survive in Foxe Basin. Refreeze now underway and should be mostly done in 10-14 days IMO. Very early / at that time the NRN reaches of HB should also begin to freeze.

EOSDIS shows Foxe Basin appr. half covered in ice yesterday, 28 days later. And "refreeze mostly complete" means 75%? Well, I guess we'll see in two weeks time.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 01, 2018, 07:21:10 AM
October 27-31.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on November 01, 2018, 08:44:52 AM
There is growing consensus for PV displacement into Canada / HB.

Consensus by whom?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: RikW on November 01, 2018, 08:53:47 AM
by bbr2314
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: AmbiValent on November 01, 2018, 09:55:06 AM
Oscar headed for the polar cell as extratropical cyclone.  GFS responds appropriately.
Is there even a name for such tro-polar cyclones?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: sark on November 01, 2018, 11:05:05 AM
There is growing consensus for PV displacement into Canada / HB.

Consensus by whom?

Oct 31 18Z GFS forecast long range exhibited some big effects on the PV

Oscar is going into the polar cell as an extratropical cyclone.  this sometimes causes SSW.  still too far away to say anything more.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: sark on November 01, 2018, 11:44:03 AM
Dr Judah Cohen discusses the PV setup in his Oct 29 blog post: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Davidsf on November 01, 2018, 02:19:10 PM
Can someone help me understand why we should care that much about Hudson Bay, and whether it might freeze over a little earlier than normal? I am not being snide here. I just want to understand. To me, it seems almost separate from the "rest of the arctic." It melts out every year...Thank you
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on November 01, 2018, 02:52:15 PM
Can someone help me understand why we should care that much about Hudson Bay, and whether it might freeze over a little earlier than normal?

I don't care so much, but I think some people associate the Hudson with the movement of the "Cold Pole" to Greenland.

I do think the Cold Pole might be moving to Greenland, but I don't think that in the long run it is such a big deal.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 01, 2018, 03:49:23 PM
David,
In addition to Dharma's reply, BBR thinks there is (or is imminently) advancing glaciation in parts of northern Canada (largely associated with apparently un-melted snow this past melting season).  I'm sure Hudson Bay plays a role in his theory.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 01, 2018, 04:25:40 PM
David,
In addition to Dharma's reply, BBR thinks there is (or is imminently) advancing glaciation in parts of northern Canada (largely associated with apparently un-melted snow this past melting season).  I'm sure Hudson Bay plays a role in his theory.
I think besides ^^^, the dichotomy between Hudson and Bering / Barentz (Hudson freezing earlier than either of those two seas) also results / encourages more -500MB anomalies in HB and +500MB anomalies in Bering/Barentz, further worseing their ongoing transition to ice-free. (e.g., the "cold" that used to be located over Bering and Barentz in December is now instead over both HB + Canada and Siberia).
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: be cause on November 01, 2018, 05:10:17 PM
where has the cold that used to be over Canada and Siberia gone if it has been replaced by the cold that was over  Bering/Barnetz ? b.c.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: sark on November 01, 2018, 05:35:22 PM
please don't drag this reglaciation debate into every single thread on the forum
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: FishOutofWater on November 01, 2018, 07:03:39 PM
The NAO index has been positive this summer and fall. There's a reason it's called an oscillation. It doesn't mean there's an oncoming ice age every time it goes positive.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on November 01, 2018, 08:35:15 PM
please don't drag this reglaciation debate into every single thread on the forum

Agreed!  Especially not a thread devoted to THIS winter.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 01, 2018, 10:38:39 PM
Thick ice near the Mclure Strait.
jaxa, oct21-31.
Polarview, oct31
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 02, 2018, 05:52:59 AM
Is the Bering going to freeze at all this year? I would bet it is 50% less than 2017-18 when all is said and done. AKA almost entirely ice-free. It is November and Wrangel Island is still surrounded by open ocean. 

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018110200/gfs_T2m_namer_37.png)

(https://media.giphy.com/media/mZGV0HkpYK3y8/giphy.gif)

There is going to be no or reverse movement on the Pac front through D5-10.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Focean.dmi.dk%2Fanim%2Fplots%2Ficec.arc.121.png&hash=2263e5e6456542637aeb7a2a41ed714d)

Some models are also showing inklings of a major cyclone in the Bering / Chukchi which could = major wave action and losses as well. I think November is going to be a very hostile month for the Pacific front in the high Arctic (and also ATL, but particularly the PAC).

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018110200/gfs_T2ma_namer_38.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018110200/gfs_mslp_wind_namer_38.png)

Also: the above forecast may be far out but it is derived primarily based on Yutu's recurve and +500MB heat pulse. This means the Bering event is higher confidence than normal. Prepare for a PAC retreat (for several days or more), IMO...
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 02, 2018, 05:58:51 AM
where has the cold that used to be over Canada and Siberia gone if it has been replaced by the cold that was over  Bering/Barnetz ? b.c.
As the above images show, it is still there, and now much more severe. It hasn't been "replaced" it has been intensified.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Davidsf on November 02, 2018, 02:40:02 PM
A little late with my post here, but thank you for the replies to my question.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Red on November 02, 2018, 05:08:39 PM
A few stats regarding Hudson's bay. The following site is related to Polar bear migration but has some interesting stats on freeze up. It's about last years freeze but has a fair bit of historical stats from Environment Canada.
https://polarbearscience.com/2017/11/13/w-hudson-bay-freeze-up-one-of-earliest-since-1979-not-closer-to-average/

Below, Hudson Bay sea ice coverage for the week of 26 November, 1971-2016 (CIS) shows that 1971 and 1981 were also years of late freeze-up along the coast of western Hudson Bay (although some years known to have had late freeze-up (e.g. 1983, Ramsay and Stirling 1988) show higher values than expected, likely reflecting ice coverage in the northern portion of the bay rather than along the west coast near Churchill):

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on November 02, 2018, 07:06:33 PM
Yesterday, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent jumped to 910,000 square kilometers more than 2016. Today, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent jumped to 1 million square kilometers more than 2016. 2016 sea ice extent LOSSES are still in the calendar days ahead, during stunning record anomalously high 20degC High Arctic temperatures above normal. A 20degC temperature difference is 36degF. & this was NOT a spot temperature anomaly, but an anomaly averaged over nearly 4 million square kilometers of the High Arctic.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 02, 2018, 07:13:52 PM
Sometimes it is actually useful to look at current conditions to determine what is actually going on vs. always looking at 10 day forecasts which are often not accurate and indicates what possibly might happen.

Here is today's 2 meter temperature anomaly. There is one very notable feature although I am certain their are more to point out by people far more knowledgeable than me.

Hudson Bay is surrounded by land that is considerably colder at 2 meters than the temperature over the water. This suggests to me that there is still a considerable amount of heat that needs to be given up to the atmosphere before we see rapid freeze.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 02, 2018, 07:15:07 PM
A few stats regarding Hudson's bay. The following site is related to Polar bear migration but has some interesting stats on freeze up. It's about last years freeze but has a fair bit of historical stats from Environment Canada.
https://polarbearscience.com/2017/11/13/w-hudson-bay-freeze-up-one-of-earliest-since-1979-not-closer-to-average/

Below, Hudson Bay sea ice coverage for the week of 26 November, 1971-2016 (CIS) shows that 1971 and 1981 were also years of late freeze-up along the coast of western Hudson Bay (although some years known to have had late freeze-up (e.g. 1983, Ramsay and Stirling 1988) show higher values than expected, likely reflecting ice coverage in the northern portion of the bay rather than along the west coast near Churchill):
There seem to be several seas in the Arctic which seem to be pretty much ignoring AGW and sea ice decline. 3 of them are the CAA, Baffin and Hudson Bay. Changes since 1979 are marginal in contrast with many other seas (- even the Central Arctic Sea) as the attached graphs seem to illustrate (which track the increase in open water over the years).

It is really bad propaganda to use one sea as a poster child - disappointment waits.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: sark on November 02, 2018, 09:33:11 PM
Yeah but the D10 supports my pet theory occasionally so I get excited and start slinging predictions that I will defend against all comers and derail every conversation instead of keeping a cool head and doing the work.  I'm new here, but am I doing it right?

sorry i just see the predictions betting game as a toxic obsession WHEN it takes over the current observations thread.

start a YouTube truth channel for all that
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on November 02, 2018, 09:41:07 PM
that big open water zone in the laptev is freezing now probably within a few days entirely.

this had to be expected at some point and is responsible for most of the steep climb of the ice extent graphs.

once that part is over-frozen i expect a slow down in freezing rate and re-joining of the lower extent years. after all the reminder on the pacific and the atlantic side i do not expect to join laptev in freezing speed, could take a while longer for them to re-freeze and the hudson will most probably remain in touch with the norms.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 02, 2018, 11:15:27 PM
edit:
oops
retracted
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on November 03, 2018, 12:15:22 AM
To continue the thoughts above, really the big question now on the horizon, after all isolated areas in the Arctic basin freeze over (Laptev very late indeed, ESS, most of Kara), is: What will the behavior be of those areas supported by external currents feeding in from the Atlantic and the Pacific - the Chukchi, Barents, CAB near Svalbard/FJL, and that unprotected part of Kara facing the Atlantic. I believe these areas which have sported open water for so long are well mixed and quite saline, so freezing could be strongly delayed.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: HapHazard on November 03, 2018, 03:17:49 AM
Yeah but the D10 supports my pet theory occasionally so I get excited and start slinging predictions that I will defend against all comers and derail every conversation instead of keeping a cool head and doing the work.  I'm new here, but am I doing it right?

Knock it off, you just made me laugh coffee out of my nose. (but yeah you're doing it right!)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 03, 2018, 05:32:43 AM

There seem to be several seas in the Arctic which seem to be pretty much ignoring AGW and sea ice decline. 3 of them are the CAA, Baffin and Hudson Bay. Changes since 1979 are marginal in contrast with many other seas (- even the Central Arctic Sea) as the attached graphs seem to illustrate (which track the increase in open water over the years).
These might indeed be seen ignoring the AGW for three different reasons. Hudson has always been only 1st year ice, Baffin depends on the export volume that has possibly increased in the pace of general decline and CAA is the garlic press for oldest surviving ice taking over a year to melt.
Hudson's outlet is so far north, if it wasn't it might already be partially ice free the whole year. The oulet is so close to Greenland ice sheet it's possible that Labrador and partly Baffin needs to lose it's winter ice (save the icebergs) for it to become like some norther Baltic coast.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 03, 2018, 06:15:53 AM
Oscar headed for the polar cell as extratropical cyclone.  GFS responds appropriately.
That will be a huge heat injection into NW Europe and potentially the Barents.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 03, 2018, 08:02:07 AM
October 29 - November 2.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on November 03, 2018, 08:43:39 AM
Precipitable Water for October 65N-90N. 2018 is second highest.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: sark on November 03, 2018, 08:55:21 AM
Oscar headed for the polar cell as extratropical cyclone.  GFS responds appropriately.
That will be a huge heat injection into NW Europe and potentially the Barents.


it really smacks the polar vortex around also.  in GFS forecast, the timing of that storm entering the arctic and 10hPa displacement are bang on.  so far the GFS only arrived at a split in one run, 18Z Oct 31, and that was at the farthest end of 15 days out.  anyway, I read somewhere that extratropical cyclones can result in a SSW event, so I've been watching it close.

There's also a bit of a blocking high over eastern Europe right up to the "impact" but it's not super sticky.  Wouldn't be the earliest PV split, I think Nov 2014 was?

figure from https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00030.1
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on November 03, 2018, 11:25:17 AM
Quote from: gerontocrat on November 02, 2018, 07:15:07 PM
" There seem to be several seas in the Arctic which seem to be pretty much ignoring AGW and sea ice decline. 3 of them are the CAA, Baffin and Hudson Bay. Changes since 1979 are marginal in contrast with many other seas (- even the Central Arctic Sea) as the attached graphs seem to illustrate (which track the increase in open water over the years)."
The fresher colder Beaufort meltwater/ex-Siberian river waters pass through the CAA into Baffin and tides/currents carry them into Hudson, a very early freeze in Hudson may be a proxy for increased surface flow through CAA. 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on November 03, 2018, 12:55:55 PM
It's quite far out, but there seems to be a fairly big storm on T+8 ECMWF over the Arctic. Would it have a big effect on ice? Pic attached
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on November 03, 2018, 02:29:07 PM
October 29 - November 2.

Thanks Aluminium, I appreciate your frequent posts!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on November 03, 2018, 03:27:08 PM
Yesterday, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent jumped to 910,000 square kilometers more than 2016. Today, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent jumped to 1 million square kilometers more than 2016.

 To-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent is a total 1.05 million square kilometers more than 2016! Now, 2018 is even approaching the sea ice extent average of the 2010's, despite High Arctic temperatures leaping to 10degC above average.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 03, 2018, 04:42:57 PM
October 29 - November 2.
Ah, Laptev freezes inwards. Great animation. Thanks again
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on November 03, 2018, 09:30:12 PM
Western Hudson beginning to freeze south of Arviat. Freeze onset date appears to be on track to be early;

(Their freeze-up threshold is 20% extent)

Andrews, J., Babb, D. and Barber, D.G., 2018. Climate change and sea ice: Shipping in Hudson Bay, Hudson Strait, and Foxe Basin (1980–2016). Elem Sci Anth, 6(1), p.19. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.281
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 03, 2018, 10:07:46 PM
Today's ESRL ice and snow thickness forecast, nov2-9 (experimental)
https://floe.keytwist.net/esrl-daily-forecasts/2018-11-02 for other and historical forecasts.
These 0-10 day, experimental, sea ice forecasts are produced by the NOAA Physical Sciences Division from a fully coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere model called CAFS. CAFS is run daily and posted online at 2 UTC. The model is initialized with the NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sea ice concentrations. The model is forced at the lateral boundaries by 3-hourly GFS forecasts of winds, temperature, and water vapor.


edit: added polarview, ess/laptev gap, nov2
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on November 04, 2018, 11:51:59 AM
Just like to add my appreciation to both Aluminium and Uniquorn for their regular chart updates.

In this forum we have often mentioned before about the reluctance of ice to form over open ocean - the usual pattern being ice grows outwards from the main packs or from the continent edges.

I don't know if this autumn is exceptional but I can recall three separate incidences, illustrated by Aluminium's 5 day Uni Bremen videos, where ice formed away from the pack. First in the Beaufort, then in the Laptev and now at the end of October, a patch formed in the Kara. Look at the Bremen image of Oct 29 and compare with Nov 2 image.

I wonder are there special salinity issues this autumn (patches of low salinity surrounded by high) allowing isolated freeze ups ? Or is it just Aluminium's vids are highlighting something we may have been missing in previous years - given most of this action takes place in complete darkness ?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on November 04, 2018, 01:29:40 PM
Some temperature graphs (NCEP reanalysis) for October 2018. Arctic-wide second highest on record, Siberian highest (1.5 °C warmer than previous record from 2007), Pacific second highest, Canadian relatively cold, Atlantic less so (8th highest, I believe):
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on November 04, 2018, 08:54:53 PM
Yesterday, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent jumped to 910,000 square kilometers more than 2016. Today, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent jumped to 1 million square kilometers more than 2016.

 To-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent is a total 1.05 million square kilometers more than 2016! Now, 2018 is even approaching the sea ice extent average of the 2010's, despite High Arctic temperatures leaping to 10degC above average.
To-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent is 1.12 million square kilometers MORE than 2016! Now, 2018 also has MORE sea ice extent than the average of the 2010's, despite very warm High Arctic temperatures since direct solar radiation disappeared from the Arctic.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on November 04, 2018, 10:06:10 PM
To-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent is 1.12 million square kilometers MORE than 2016! Now, 2018 also has MORE sea ice extent than the average of the 2010's, despite very warm High Arctic temperatures since direct solar radiation disappeared from the Arctic.

We have the extent and area thread for this kind of info. This thread is for discussing what is causing the numbers to fluctuate.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on November 04, 2018, 11:34:06 PM
We have the extent and area thread for this kind of info. This thread is for discussing what is causing the numbers to fluctuate.
..... which I have delineated several times, while posting these shifting, rising & falling sea ice extents.
I'm glad you are back from your vacation.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 05, 2018, 01:40:19 AM
Today saw a very rapid advance in Hudson Bay, Foxe Basin, and Baffin Bay. Obviously the ice is advancing elsewhere but I am focusing on these areas because they are the only ones + vs. normal. The polar vortex has plunged into Canada, and by D5, it should be sitting over Hudson Bay.

(https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018110412/ecmwf_T850_namer_6.png)

HB is likely to freeze very rapidly over the next two weeks as water temps over half of its area are already at freezing or below, and the situation of the PV is likely to worsen through D10 if modeling is correct. The only recent year with similar ice conditions is 2015, however, momentum that year stalled and cold was much less prevalent (2018 has ice over most Canadian lakes in the Shield -- 2015 at this point, did not). Therefore I am predicting the earliest refreeze of Hudson Bay going back to the 1980s-1970s (I would think 1972 holds the record, but if someone can verify that would be great).

Simultaneously: Bering is scorching, as is Barentz. The early refreeze of a region with relatively low latitude will further encourage polar heat transport in both the PAC and ATL, IMO, and we are probably in for many surprises as we approach the New Year, as I expect minimal refreezing to occur in both aforementioned seas ^.

Finally: see attached for 2018-10-31 minus 2017-10-31. There has been massive cooling off of the US NE / Canadian Maritimes, and the High Arctic is also scorching, and an enormous amount of heat has accumulated in the NPAC.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: sark on November 05, 2018, 03:30:06 AM
...
The polar vortex has plunged into Canada, and by D5, it should be sitting over Hudson Bay.
...

Am I looking at the wrong thing?  The polar vortex?  Looks like its over Svalbard on Day 5 and the rest of the forecast has it settling down over Greenland after the wave of Oscar smacks it around a bit.

https://imgur.com/a/Z1L8w4T
gif of 11 day forecast shows it centering on the other side of Greenland from Hudson Bay.  Hudson Bay?  Am I looking at the polar vortex temperature and heights at 10mb or have I got it wrong?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 05, 2018, 03:46:13 AM
...
The polar vortex has plunged into Canada, and by D5, it should be sitting over Hudson Bay.
...

Am I looking at the wrong thing?  The polar vortex?  Looks like its over Svalbard on Day 5 and the rest of the forecast has it settling down over Greenland after the wave of Oscar smacks it around a bit.

https://imgur.com/a/Z1L8w4T
gif of 11 day forecast shows it centering on the other side of Greenland from Hudson Bay.  Hudson Bay?  Am I looking at the polar vortex temperature and heights at 10mb or have I got it wrong?
Maybe it is just "a" polar vortex. Or an extremely frigid airmass. Perhaps I was incorrect in terminology but my point stands (apologies!)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: sark on November 05, 2018, 04:06:08 AM
I just don't see it in the forecast.  To me it looks like the PV at any level is displaced, and the timing is coincident with the influence of an extratropical cyclone entering the arctic.  As the GFS outlook has evolved, the PV moves away from the north pole toward Svalbard and Siberia, but quickly recovers around Nov 15

I wouldn't predict necessarily but it seems to indicate milder weather mid-month for the Eastern US and Canada.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 05, 2018, 04:10:05 AM
I just don't see it in the forecast.  To me it looks like the PV at any level is displaced, and the timing is coincident with the influence of an extratropical cyclone entering the arctic.  As the GFS outlook has evolved, the PV moves away from the north pole toward Svalbard and Siberia, but quickly recovers around Nov 15

I wouldn't predict necessarily but it seems to indicate milder weather mid-month for the Eastern US and Canada.

If you did predict, you would be horribly wrong, lol. Ensembles are gung ho on extreme cold.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2018110418/gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_7.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2018110412/gem-ens_T2maMean_namer_7.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2018110412/ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_namer_6.png)

Oh, and the OP EURO for good measure.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018110412/ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on November 05, 2018, 04:18:41 AM
Great, now we are up to 11-day forecasts. Silly me, I didn't even know they existed.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 05, 2018, 04:20:01 AM
Great, now we are up to 11-day forecasts. Silly me, I didn't even know they existed.
They are ensemble forecasts (used for long-range) and it was a direct refutation of the idea it would be warm mid-month... all the models show otherwise. Do you know what ensemble means?

They are also 6-10 or 7-11 day forecasts, not D11. Those are 5-day averages. Why are you so nasty when you could just read the maps properly instead?

Also: the maps D2-3-4-5 are the same as ^, which is why I posted those first. I suggest you stop attacking me and start actually contributing to discussion. In case you are as bad at math as you are at reading, 120 hours out is 5 days away.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018110412/ecmwf_T850_namer_6.png)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 05, 2018, 04:36:23 AM
PS:

weather.us has direct day-to-day comparisons now for very many variables! Unfortunately the data only goes back to 2017, but here is the year over year for snow depth.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/8JNDH9krEfhmNtlV7t/giphy.gif)

You can toggle back and forth for many other variables as well (SWE, water temp, sea ice, pretty much anything).

Go here and input whatever you want, just change region / timestamp etc:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/massachusetts/gusts-3h-mph/20171030-0600z.html

The ^ data is from the EURO. On that note, it is interesting that EURO is the only model where water temps and sea ice appear to be un-static, perhaps explaining one of the reasons why it is so much more accurate than the GFS / CMC, both of which lack these options for toggling (and whose consistently terrible output leads me to believe they do not incorporate it beyond 00z hr data as well).
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: sark on November 05, 2018, 04:45:31 AM
yeah it gets cold because of a trough.  the polar vortex is not really a ground level phenomenon.  saying the polar vortex is centered over hudson bay is just wrong.  that's a trough.

after the (perhaps I should specify) stratospheric polar vortex settles down, as forecast, it would tend to indicate milder conditions.  granted, somewhat after mid-month.

not all cold is "polar vortex" although that's how it gets used in the popular vernacular ever since that one PV split in like Nov 2014
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 05, 2018, 04:58:28 AM
yeah it gets cold because of a trough.  the polar vortex is not really a ground level phenomenon.  saying the polar vortex is centered over hudson bay is just wrong.  that's a trough.

after the (perhaps I should specify) stratospheric polar vortex settles down, as forecast, it would tend to indicate milder conditions.  granted, somewhat after mid-month.

not all cold is "polar vortex" although that's how it gets used in the popular vernacular ever since that one PV split in like Nov 2014
Is it just a trough though? Modeling has it cut off completely as riding builds overhead. I think it is a secondary PV. But again, I am possibly wrong. I just know modeling shows it getting frigid.

One additional note: the Great Lakes are frigid compared to normal, and the last two years. I think they will freeze completely and thoroughly this year with melt-out delayed til May and June in Superior and Huron.

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/compare_years/

11/3/2018 vs. 11/3/2016:

Superior: whole volume, -1.8F, surface, -3.8F
Michigan: whole volume, -3.1F, surface, -4.2F
Huron: whole volume, -2.6F, surface, -3.8F
Erie: whole volume, -4.6F, surface, -5.1F
Ontario: whole volume, -2.6F, surface, -3.4F

I would think that the combination of the cold in HB / GL (both residuals of this frigid spring and late melt), are additional indicators for a very severe winter in the US & Canadian East. Superior is probably going to freeze VERY solidly.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: wdmn on November 05, 2018, 05:33:09 AM
Superior has been cold compared to the last several years, but rate of cooling slowed down a lot around mid-October.

I doubt highly Superior will stay frozen until June.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: aperson on November 05, 2018, 05:40:19 AM
yeah it gets cold because of a trough.  the polar vortex is not really a ground level phenomenon.  saying the polar vortex is centered over hudson bay is just wrong.  that's a trough.

after the (perhaps I should specify) stratospheric polar vortex settles down, as forecast, it would tend to indicate milder conditions.  granted, somewhat after mid-month.

not all cold is "polar vortex" although that's how it gets used in the popular vernacular ever since that one PV split in like Nov 2014

I think it would be wise to indicate whether one is talking about the stratospheric polar vortex (as you are referring to) vs the tropospheric polar vortex (as bbr is referring to).
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 05, 2018, 05:49:33 AM
Superior has been cold compared to the last several years, but rate of cooling slowed down a lot around mid-October.

I doubt highly Superior will stay frozen until June.
Thank you for that graph! I don't think it will stay entirely frozen into June but some ice may remain. In 2015, ice lasted well into May (and June, I think?)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 05, 2018, 07:44:12 AM
October 31 - November 4.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on November 05, 2018, 07:53:04 AM
The question is whether the refreeze will remain rapid, or slow down now as things have filled up now and the ice edge gets closer to the Pacific and Atlantic. My guess is the latter, but you never know.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 05, 2018, 07:57:52 AM
The 00z EURO tonight is completely insane. Canada is BEYOND frigid and cross-polar flow activates D5-6. After the first PV rotates down an even colder airmass enters as a ridge bridge spans the Bering and the High Arctic drains into Canada.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018110500/ecmwf_T850_namer_7.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018110500/ecmwf_T850_namer_11.png)

The question is whether the refreeze will remain rapid, or slow down now as things have filled up now and the ice edge gets closer to the Pacific and Atlantic. My guess is the latter, but you never know.

If modeling is correct, the PAC front is going to pause completely, however, there should be very rapid gains as Hudson and Baffin freeze up through 11/15-20. Once Hudson is done, Baffin will continue, but I imagine we will see a leveling / slowdown in refreeze ~11/20, as most of the "easy" ice will be formed by then.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on November 05, 2018, 08:24:11 AM
The question is whether the refreeze will remain rapid, or slow down now as things have filled up now and the ice edge gets closer to the Pacific and Atlantic. My guess is the latter, but you never know.

I would also guess that refreeze will come to a stop.
There has been a blocking high above E-Europe for a while and there is strong ridging on T+5 on the ECMWF, bringing warm air to Svalbard and the ATL front in general:
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 05, 2018, 03:47:25 PM
...
The polar vortex has plunged into Canada, and by D5, it should be sitting over Hudson Bay.
...

Am I looking at the wrong thing?  The polar vortex?  Looks like its over Svalbard on Day 5 and the rest of the forecast has it settling down over Greenland after the wave of Oscar smacks it around a bit.

https://imgur.com/a/Z1L8w4T
gif of 11 day forecast shows it centering on the other side of Greenland from Hudson Bay.  Hudson Bay?  Am I looking at the polar vortex temperature and heights at 10mb or have I got it wrong?
GFS about 3 days out is showing blooms of heat rolling into the Arctic from both sides of the basin, and an outbreak of cold air across the Canadian shield just east of the Rockies, and a matching breakout of cold air (it appears) into central Siberia across the eastern Barents.

Heat blowing in from the oceans on either side squeezing the cold air out of the arctic the way tooth paste would blow out if you dropped it on the floor and stepped on it hard enough.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 05, 2018, 04:24:17 PM
Oooops. Comment by bbr2314 that I was replying to has disappeared.

this reminds me of asking some users who predicted the hudson would be frozen by the 15th of november still believe so?

i for my part don't believe that and think that hudson is holding out quite well. during summer there were repeated theories of very early refreeze of hudson and even more extreme predictions for greater parts of canada.

i personally do not believe in any wide spread re-glacification, after all the globe is warming and sooner or later retreat of the ice will happen everywhere.
I did say 11/15 for Hudson Bay and it isn't holding out well, unless, you mean the Hudson River. Foxe Basin is almost completely iced and I think we are on track for 50-75% coverage in HB by 11/15 (my prediction was 75%).

CAA is frozen earlier than ever and HB will do the same. So why don't you go bother looking at some graphs before launching into a random attack on me?

Also, SH: I deleted post regarding GB because the cold air went down into North America this wrong, and not Europe. 500MB was a bit deceiving, oops.

Will dismissed by many earlier as unlikely, this prediction is looking more likely by the day.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on November 05, 2018, 06:16:57 PM
I did say 11/15 for Hudson Bay and it isn't holding out well, unless, you mean the Hudson River. Foxe Basin is almost completely iced and I think we are on track for 50-75% coverage in HB by 11/15 (my prediction was 75%).


Will dismissed by many earlier as unlikely, this prediction is looking more likely by the day.

Well isn't looking any more likely now than then. Hudson is less than 10% frozen at the moment, and Foxe Basin is still around 50% (and thus far from "completely iced").
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 05, 2018, 06:46:20 PM
I did say 11/15 for Hudson Bay and it isn't holding out well, unless, you mean the Hudson River. Foxe Basin is almost completely iced and I think we are on track for 50-75% coverage in HB by 11/15 (my prediction was 75%).


Will dismissed by many earlier as unlikely, this prediction is looking more likely by the day.

Well isn't looking any more likely now than then. Hudson is less than 10% frozen at the moment, and Foxe Basin is still around 50% (and thus far from "completely iced").
Foxe is almost completely iced, Hudson will follow rapidly. If not 11/15, 11/20.

(https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif)

I would not be surprised if we saw some "spontaneous" ice appear in NE Hudson Bay (the fresh part) as well, as the refreeze advances in general.

Finally, the CFS is usually not great, but it has trended extremely solidly towards a very robust PV over HB in December, coincident with the early freeze up we are now seeing. And that is not a coincidence. !
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 05, 2018, 06:52:53 PM
yeah it gets cold because of a trough.  the polar vortex is not really a ground level phenomenon.  saying the polar vortex is centered over hudson bay is just wrong.  that's a trough.

after the (perhaps I should specify) stratospheric polar vortex settles down, as forecast, it would tend to indicate milder conditions.  granted, somewhat after mid-month.

not all cold is "polar vortex" although that's how it gets used in the popular vernacular ever since that one PV split in like Nov 2014
Is it just a trough though? Modeling has it cut off completely as riding builds overhead. I think it is a secondary PV. But again, I am possibly wrong. I just know modeling shows it getting frigid.

Which would make it a cut-off low if this is the case and, yes, you are wrong IMHO.

One additional note: the Great Lakes are frigid compared to normal, and the last two years. I think they will freeze completely and thoroughly this year with melt-out delayed til May and June in Superior and Huron.

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/compare_years/

11/3/2018 vs. 11/3/2016:

Superior: whole volume, -1.8F, surface, -3.8F
Michigan: whole volume, -3.1F, surface, -4.2F
Huron: whole volume, -2.6F, surface, -3.8F
Erie: whole volume, -4.6F, surface, -5.1F
Ontario: whole volume, -2.6F, surface, -3.4F

I would think that the combination of the cold in HB / GL (both residuals of this frigid spring and late melt), are additional indicators for a very severe winter in the US & Canadian East. Superior is probably going to freeze VERY solidly.

While I understand you are referring to water temperature anomalies, it would be helpful if you would be more specific in calling these temperatures out as such so as not to mislead the reader.

Here are the actual surface temperatures for the Great Lakes. Hardly frigid.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 05, 2018, 07:00:12 PM
yeah it gets cold because of a trough.  the polar vortex is not really a ground level phenomenon.  saying the polar vortex is centered over hudson bay is just wrong.  that's a trough.

after the (perhaps I should specify) stratospheric polar vortex settles down, as forecast, it would tend to indicate milder conditions.  granted, somewhat after mid-month.

not all cold is "polar vortex" although that's how it gets used in the popular vernacular ever since that one PV split in like Nov 2014
Is it just a trough though? Modeling has it cut off completely as riding builds overhead. I think it is a secondary PV. But again, I am possibly wrong. I just know modeling shows it getting frigid.

Which would make it a cut-off low if this is the case and, yes, you are wrong IMHO.

One additional note: the Great Lakes are frigid compared to normal, and the last two years. I think they will freeze completely and thoroughly this year with melt-out delayed til May and June in Superior and Huron.

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/compare_years/

11/3/2018 vs. 11/3/2016:

Superior: whole volume, -1.8F, surface, -3.8F
Michigan: whole volume, -3.1F, surface, -4.2F
Huron: whole volume, -2.6F, surface, -3.8F
Erie: whole volume, -4.6F, surface, -5.1F
Ontario: whole volume, -2.6F, surface, -3.4F

I would think that the combination of the cold in HB / GL (both residuals of this frigid spring and late melt), are additional indicators for a very severe winter in the US & Canadian East. Superior is probably going to freeze VERY solidly.

While I understand you are referring to water temperature anomalies, it would be helpful if you would be more specific in calling these temperatures out as such so as not to mislead the reader.

Here are the actual surface temperatures for the Great Lakes. Hardly frigid.
I think it is a tropospheric PV as the other poster mentioned before. Cut-off lows do not generate their own cold air, and are "dying" cold airmasses without a sufficient source -- PVs are the opposite (at least, I think this is what differentiates the two, or at least it is what differentiates them in my mind).

And you are correct re: GL SSTs, they are cold vs. normal but not outright frigid. I think that should change somewhat through D10 as we see "trough" or "vortex" descend to the general vicinity, with widespread snows and frigid air temps all around.

PS: here are Hudson Bay water temps as just initialized by 12z EURO. Things are cooling off very quickly.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 05, 2018, 07:13:05 PM
A complete icing over of Lake Superior is not unprecedented, happening most recently in 2015. Ice cover on the Great Lakes is highly variable year over year so predicting a complete icing over this winter is a little like betting on the toss of a dice. If it were to ice over, this does not presage a coming ice age.

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/historicalAnim/
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 05, 2018, 07:16:31 PM
A complete icing over of Lake Superior is not unprecedented, happening most recently in 2015. Ice cover on the Great Lakes is highly variable year over year so predicting a complete icing over this winter is a little like betting on the toss of a dice. If it were to ice over, this does not presage a coming ice age.

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/historicalAnim/
I didn't say it did? I think the momentum is significant here though, and that later melt / earlier freeze limits summer insolation uptake. Factors can override this of course, but in itself it is yet another feedback, however minor. And, crucial to this thread, I think the Great Lakes will contribute to ice totals in a greater capacity than normal (again, however relatively minor vs. everything else).
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 05, 2018, 07:30:34 PM
A complete icing over of Lake Superior is not unprecedented, happening most recently in 2015. Ice cover on the Great Lakes is highly variable year over year so predicting a complete icing over this winter is a little like betting on the toss of a dice. If it were to ice over, this does not presage a coming ice age.

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/historicalAnim/
I didn't say it did? I think the momentum is significant here though, and that later melt / earlier freeze limits summer insolation uptake. Factors can override this of course, but in itself it is yet another feedback, however minor. And, crucial to this thread, I think the Great Lakes will contribute to ice totals in a greater capacity than normal (again, however relatively minor vs. everything else).

If you look at the 25 year animation of Great Lakes ice cover maximums for a trend, it is towards less ice cover rather than more. Whatever momentum we are building is towards a year round, ice free Great Lakes.

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/historicalAnim/

The only Great Lake which approaches icing over on a fairly frequent basis is Lake Erie, the most southern lake and this is due to its shallow depth relative to the other lakes.

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: be cause on November 05, 2018, 07:44:39 PM
.. and litesong gets jumped on for an interesting factoid .. I love the moderation on this forum .. b.c.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 05, 2018, 07:54:07 PM
The latest modeling (12z) continues the idea of an extremely cold period in North America. But it is also interesting to note that this pattern bears a very marked similarity to November of 2014. See below for the 11/2014 500MB anomaly map, and today's 12Z EURO map (5-day average) for later in the period. This is probably very bad news for the High Arctic as the ensuing year shed all the volume gains of 2013-2014. We are entering the same position, but without any real gains. Thus, I think 2019 is a good contender for record minimum volume.

In comparing the below, I would say it is actually uncanny how similar the two years are.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018110512/ecmwf_z500aMean_nhem_5.png)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 05, 2018, 08:02:01 PM
If it were to ice over, this does not presage a coming ice age.

I didn't say it did?

No, you didn't but, given your predilection for pushing this theory on multiple threads, you should understand why I said this.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 05, 2018, 08:02:51 PM
If it were to ice over, this does not presage a coming ice age.

I didn't say it did?

No, you didn't but, given your predilection for pushing this theory on multiple threads, you should understand why I said this.
No problem.  :)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: sark on November 05, 2018, 09:09:24 PM
This is losing its utility.

and the polar vortex isn't a ground level feature.  not all cold is a polar vortex.  maybe that's how it's used in the common vernacular, but meteorologists and climatologists have been correcting that usage since at least November of 2014 when the actual polar vortex split and the term garnered widespread attention.

Any analysis of polar vortex is done at 70mb, 50mb, or 10mb.  If you wanna call all arctic air the polar vortex, that's going to confuse the structural feature with surface phenomenon.

Sure, the PV winds are prevalent down to 350 mb, 500 mb, whatever.  it's not the winds at the ground level.

and I'll take my answer logged off.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 05, 2018, 09:24:56 PM
This is losing its utility.

and the polar vortex isn't a ground level feature.  not all cold is a polar vortex.  maybe that's how it's used in the common vernacular, but meteorologists and climatologists have been correcting that usage since at least November of 2014 when the actual polar vortex split and the term garnered widespread attention.

Any analysis of polar vortex is done at 70mb, 50mb, or 10mb.  If you wanna call all arctic air the polar vortex, that's going to confuse the structural feature with surface phenomenon.

Sure, the PV winds are prevalent down to 350 mb, 500 mb, whatever.  it's not the winds at the ground level.

and I'll take my answer logged off.
You do realize the projected upcoming pattern is almost identical to 11/2014?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 05, 2018, 10:59:13 PM
October 31 - November 4.
Thanks for the animations. Beaufort ice looks quite solid on amsr2. A bit more fractured on worldview and polarview, oct5th (Amundsen gulf, bottom left) https://tinyurl.com/y9ca4f9w
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 06, 2018, 01:12:53 AM
This is losing its utility.

and the polar vortex isn't a ground level feature.  not all cold is a polar vortex...
*Thank you* sark.

What is happening looks far more like matching breakouts over the Canadian Shield and trans Ural Siberia, along with intrusions of heat across The Bering and Barents/Greenland seas.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: sark on November 06, 2018, 05:16:12 AM
bbr, do anyone a favor and google "polar vortex"

I'm not going to waste my time arguing with inexperienced people who post prodigious amounts of nonsense supporting some crank pet theory they carry as a preconceived notion.  I don't see you doing the work, just wasting everyone's time with your fantasizing and belief.  The endless stream of predictions and the seeming lack of awareness of basic meteorology, all the drama and accusations, it tells me everything about your personality and nothing about the conditions in the Arctic.

I don't care about your personality or your crank pet theories, at all.  Nobody cares about mine.  I'm not here to pretend I'm some prodigy oracle of futurecasting.  Take that trash to YouTube, you've got enough to set up a successful channel there.

if a guy like me can see through this crap, then this forum is no more valuable than YouTube cranks, Guy McPherson, and other disinformation spewing attention whores who have no intention of doing the hard work of science.

I'm done with it.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on November 06, 2018, 05:21:30 AM
A complete icing over of Lake Superior is not unprecedented, happening most recently in 2015. Ice cover on the Great Lakes is highly variable year over year so predicting a complete icing over this winter is a little like betting on the toss of a dice. If it were to ice over, this does not presage a coming ice age.

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/historicalAnim/
The animation is wonderful! Thank you.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 06, 2018, 05:37:27 AM
bbr, do anyone a favor and google "polar vortex"

I'm not going to waste my time arguing with inexperienced people who post prodigious amounts of nonsense supporting some crank pet theory they carry as a preconceived notion.  I don't see you doing the work, just wasting everyone's time with your fantasizing and belief.  The endless stream of predictions and the seeming lack of awareness of basic meteorology, all the drama and accusations, it tells me everything about your personality and nothing about the conditions in the Arctic.

I don't care about your personality or your crank pet theories, at all.  Nobody cares about mine.  I'm not here to pretend I'm some prodigy oracle of futurecasting.  Take that trash to YouTube, you've got enough to set up a successful channel there.

if a guy like me can see through this crap, then this forum is no more valuable than YouTube cranks, Guy McPherson, and other disinformation spewing attention whores who have no intention of doing the hard work of science.

I'm done with it.
You are rude. There is a PV entering Canada. You can insult me all you want but it won't change the fact it is going to be frigid in Canada and that a PV is relocating to Hudson Bay / Foxe Basin. But keep insulting me!  :)

In your previous post you said 2014 was "an actual polar vortex split". 2018 is mirroring 2014 to a tee. So what? Are you the idiot?

What do you think this map shows? Is it the polar vortex or a polar vortice? Does splitting hairs over this definition f*cking matter? IT IS GOING TO BE COLD IN CANADA.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018110600/gfs_uv250_namer_21.png)

If you want to insult me with baseless words please take it to PM instead of cluttering this thread with your nonsense. Thanks!

PS: you are now on my ignore list so there is no use replying. Neven, please feel free to delete this as well if you see fit.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: sark on November 06, 2018, 06:59:08 AM
bbr

I don't read your posts.  I don't read the endless debate about your pet theory.  I don't care.  It's not good information.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on November 06, 2018, 07:39:44 AM
bbr

I don't read your posts.  I don't read the endless debate about your pet theory.  I don't care.  It's not good information.

So, stop reacting to it! If you think someone is a troll, don't feed him. If bbr2314 is out of line and posts too many D10 forecasts, I'll tell him.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on November 06, 2018, 07:40:28 AM

Well isn't looking any more likely now than then. Hudson is less than 10% frozen at the moment, and Foxe Basin is still around 50% (and thus far from "completely iced").
Foxe is almost completely iced, Hudson will follow rapidly. If not 11/15, 11/20.


Well you keep saying that Foxe is almost completely iced, but it's easy to check on Worldview. Two days ago Foxe basin was at least 1/3 open water, and the rest quite dispersed ice, so perhaps around 50% open water. If you have any evidence to the contrary, then please post it here!

And perhaps Hudson will follow rapidly, but by throwing out dates like 11/15 and 11/20, are you saying that Hudson will be "almost completely iced" by those dates, or what? Hudson bay with 50% ice cover by the end of November is not that unusual, and there really isn't anything that indicates that it will happen earlier now.

If you want to claim otherwise, it's not enough to publish weather predictions and confabulate. You will have to compare with earlier periods when the conditions were similar and the Hudson did freeze over "almost completely" by the middle of November.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on November 06, 2018, 08:15:32 AM
The upper of the two images shows Uni Bremen false-color ice concentration from yesterday, Foxe basin is helpfully circled. Hudson Bay is almost totally ice free, and the same goes for the Hudson Strait.

The extent and area graphs to the right show all three seas (Hudson Bay, Foxe and Hudson Strait) with some 10% ice cover at the moment.

Below that is WorldView from two days ago, dispersed ice in the north of Foxe, open waters in the south. Percentage wise probably more then 50% covered - but "nearly iced over" is as far from true now as it was a week ago.

So BBR when you make your prediction of Hudson Bay being 75% covered in five or 10 days time, are we talking about the Bay itself, or all three seas?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: HapHazard on November 06, 2018, 11:37:47 AM
bbr

I don't read your posts.  I don't read the endless debate about your pet theory.  I don't care.  It's not good information.
Just put him on ignore - makes this forum more readable. IDK why they're still here, honestly.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on November 06, 2018, 03:52:38 PM
Arguing as passionate scientists/researchers/hobbyists is healthy so long as it is respectful.

I for one found this paper informative; I think people are at odds because they are speaking largely in cross-purposes;

One can "split" and the other cannot;

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00212.1
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 06, 2018, 03:59:42 PM
There may be some evidence of persistent upwelling north of Svalbard. The uni-hamburg amsr2 animation below (oct1-nov5) has been heavily contrasted on the right hand side to bring out the lower concentration areas (edit:some of the transient blue is weather). The area with persistent low concentration, even as the ice moves across it, is marked on the left.
The polarview image (nov5) shows the rough location of the possible upwelling and what may be a recently melted area that is heading towards the Fram Strait.
This may not be a new feature, perhaps the ice is now thin enough to reveal it. Mercator model is interesting in that area. Will post the bigger animations in the salinity thread later.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on November 06, 2018, 04:55:33 PM
Thank you A-TeamUniquorn for the animation.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on November 06, 2018, 05:45:00 PM

That's interesting! Lets see if it stays. It's over a high spot of the Yermak Plateau. But that plateau is 500m deep.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 06, 2018, 09:07:06 PM

That's interesting! Lets see if it stays. It's over a high spot of the Yermak Plateau. But that plateau is 500m deep.
That would still produce significant turbulence because of pressure backing up behind it.  The warmer more saline flows at depth may *be* as much as 500m thick and even if not, their laminar flow could be seriously disrupted.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on November 06, 2018, 09:21:56 PM
There was a low over SZ/Laptev that moved over Siberia, that and the low in the Greenland sea may have caused the movement of deeper water. Eyeballing puts it over the peninsular[?] part of the plateau, -760m. Detail from (https://maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/bathymetry/)
(https://puu.sh/BXqlV/6dfeabf8e8.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 07, 2018, 07:18:38 AM
November 2-6.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 07, 2018, 08:15:27 AM
November 2-6.
Chukchi starts to freeze later than Kara ( always forget the correct spelling of Tšuktsi) like the habit has been in recent years. Now the freezing should slow down to form the early winter Atlantic front somewhere on Kara. Interesting to see for how long ChucHi and Bering stay open,.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on November 07, 2018, 09:25:10 AM
Wow! Great spot Uniquorn at #651!

And nice context Rox at #653!

That is indeed very interesting!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 07, 2018, 07:14:34 PM
Since the Beaufort, CAB, ESS, Laptev is pretty much ice covered now, here is amsr2-uhh for the current freezing season, sep24-nov6
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 08, 2018, 07:44:14 AM
Since the Beaufort, CAB, ESS, Laptev is pretty much ice covered now, here is amsr2-uhh for the current freezing season, sep24-nov6
I expect the Laptev closing will mean the recent gallop of century+ extent increases will drop off, and 2018 may start pushing against the previous lows for date again.  The Kara refreeze may make up for some of that, but after that, the Chukchi and Barents between them have an awful lot of heat to dissipate.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 08, 2018, 07:59:27 AM
Since the Beaufort, CAB, ESS, Laptev is pretty much ice covered now, here is amsr2-uhh for the current freezing season, sep24-nov6
I expect the Laptev closing will mean the recent gallop of century+ extent increases will drop off, and 2018 may start pushing against the previous lows for date again.  The Kara refreeze may make up for some of that, but after that, the Chukchi and Barents between them have an awful lot of heat to dissipate.
Don't forget Hudson's impending rapid ice up. But Chukchi, Barents, and Bering are going to result in a veryyyyy long stall afterwards, IMO. Baffin and Kara will be the only areas gaining.

Also: tonight's 00z EURO opens a black hole in Baffin. Wonder how this looks come verification / imagine it is substantially less progressive.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018110800/ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png)

And it is not coincidental it is corresponding with what's unfolding over Quebec........ 2018 vs. 2017. Last year was phenomenal. And this year.... WTF!

(https://media.giphy.com/media/7OVR3Bbqk5VbD5ygaH/giphy.gif)


Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on November 08, 2018, 09:27:09 AM
bbr2314, when you post forecast maps, please indicate how many days out it is. For most people it isn't clear and they may think it's going to happen in the next few days, whereas with you it's mostly D8-10. Thanks.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 08, 2018, 09:30:46 AM
bbr2314, when you post forecast maps, please indicate how many days out it is. For most people it isn't clear and they may think it's going to happen in the next few days, whereas with you it's mostly D8-10. Thanks.
Will do! :)

The event ^ is getting going by D5-6 btw. So its origins are already well within reliable modeling. The question is how strong it gets and where it bombs out.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: psymmo7 on November 08, 2018, 10:28:52 AM
Thank you SimonF92,
the article about the Polar Vortex (PV) and how the imprecise use of terminology can lead to confusion was most informative.
I can otherwise only echo your sentiment about respect.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on November 08, 2018, 03:40:53 PM
Since the Beaufort, CAB, ESS, Laptev is pretty much ice covered now, here is amsr2-uhh for the current freezing season, sep24-nov6
I expect the Laptev closing will mean the recent gallop of century+ extent increases will drop off, and 2018 may start pushing against the previous lows for date again.  The Kara refreeze may make up for some of that, but after that, the Chukchi and Barents between them have an awful lot of heat to dissipate.

From what I have read here you will find a strong consensus on this forum agreeing with you. It's going to be an interesting freeze season.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 09, 2018, 08:39:56 AM
November 4-8.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 09, 2018, 10:54:07 AM
Since the Beaufort, CAB, ESS, Laptev is pretty much ice covered now, here is amsr2-uhh for the current freezing season, sep24-nov6
I expect the Laptev closing will mean the recent gallop of century+ extent increases will drop off, and 2018 may start pushing against the previous lows for date again.  The Kara refreeze may make up for some of that, but after that, the Chukchi and Barents between them have an awful lot of heat to dissipate.

From what I have read here you will find a strong consensus on this forum agreeing with you. It's going to be an interesting freeze season.
Maybe yes, maybe no.

After a brief 3 days of low extent gains, JAXA extent gain for 8 Nov was 100k, 40 k above average.
Arctic temp anomalies dropping according to GFS - from nearly +3 to about +1 celsius within 5 days. But in the other hand the low average anomalies are countered by higher anomalies along the Atlantic front and in the Pacific gateway (reflecting SST +ve anomalies?).
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: be cause on November 09, 2018, 01:24:40 PM
I was wondering have the Atlantic and Pacific fronts ever been so close this time of year ? b.c.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Sleepy on November 09, 2018, 02:04:30 PM
Yes, especially in 2016. Here's 20021108-20181108.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 10, 2018, 10:10:52 AM
Since the Beaufort, CAB, ESS, Laptev is pretty much ice covered now, here is amsr2-uhh for the current freezing season, sep24-nov6
I expect the Laptev closing will mean the recent gallop of century+ extent increases will drop off, and 2018 may start pushing against the previous lows for date again.  The Kara refreeze may make up for some of that, but after that, the Chukchi and Barents between them have an awful lot of heat to dissipate.

From what I have read here you will find a strong consensus on this forum agreeing with you. It's going to be an interesting freeze season.
Maybe yes, maybe no.

After a brief 3 days of low extent gains, JAXA extent gain for 8 Nov was 100k, 40 k above average.
Arctic temp anomalies dropping according to GFS - from nearly +3 to about +1 celsius within 5 days. But in the other hand the low average anomalies are countered by higher anomalies along the Atlantic front and in the Pacific gateway (reflecting SST +ve anomalies?).
Conundrums;

Higher coverage means less direct heat exchange to the atmosphere via evaporation and convection.
Less convection, etc. With less influx from lower latitudes equals lower 80N temps
Even with lower temps, more ice equals slower loss of residual summer heat accumulation.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 10, 2018, 02:42:56 PM
Even with lower temps, more ice equals slower loss of residual summer heat accumulation.

Agreed, also rapid freeze at low temperatures probably means more brine in the ice.
Full size animation of ascat, oct18-nov9 as it is deliniating the different ice types so well at the moment (after enhancement).

The atlantic is still at work under the new ice front until the halocline/pynocline settles down.
amsr2-uhh, oct31-nov9, forward and back.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 11, 2018, 07:11:36 AM
November 6-10.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 12, 2018, 09:38:22 PM
Some clearer skies recently on worldview using viirs brightness temperature band15, day or night. Here is an example showing the area north Greenland, nov12, using 2 different colour palettes. Despite the cold temperatures, the ice to the east of Ellesmere still looks in bad condition.

https://tinyurl.com/ydbuy7aj
edit: according to worldview scale, yellow ~0C, light blue ~-46C
 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on November 13, 2018, 05:06:57 AM
Even with lower temps, more ice equals slower loss of residual summer heat accumulation.

I recently quoted you on this point you made last year when early freezing occurred rapidly. However, this year I drew a different conclusion: in 2018 the refreeze was the slowest on record, which gave the arctic more time to release ocean heat into the atmosphere. Therefore, the current faster trend of ice formation is consistent with less heat remaining in the water (even though air temps are currently above average).
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 13, 2018, 09:11:27 AM
November 8-12.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on November 13, 2018, 10:45:19 AM
Even with lower temps, more ice equals slower loss of residual summer heat accumulation.

I recently quoted you on this point you made last year when early freezing occurred rapidly. However, this year I drew a different conclusion: in 2018 the refreeze was the slowest on record, which gave the arctic more time to release ocean heat into the atmosphere. Therefore, the current faster trend of ice formation is consistent with less heat remaining in the water (even though air temps are currently above average).

SSTs declining steadily in the Chukchi too with frequent winds coming from a north to east direction, stripping the heat from the top layer of the ocean. The Chukchi SSTs are coming from a very high point but there is a lot of heat being lost here now.

In comparison to this time last year when we had frequent southerly incursions up the Bering Strait.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on November 13, 2018, 03:16:27 PM
A guy at NASA just came out with a report saying we will have unusually cold weather starting in about 6 weeks because of persistent lack of sunspot activity. This low has been predicted for years and we’ll see how it affects earth temperatures. Who know but maybe we will get heavy freezing this year over the arctic and see a much needed recovery to ice such as we haven’t seen for decades.

If there is to be such a recovery we need two things: very strong and persistent ice formation this freezing season and cool 2019 with slow ice melt to preserve ice going into next year’s freeze.

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on November 13, 2018, 03:29:57 PM
A guy at NASA just came out with a report saying we will have unusually cold weather starting in about 6 weeks because of persistent lack of sunspot activity. This low has been predicted for years and we’ll see how it affects earth temperatures. Who know but maybe we will get heavy freezing this year over the arctic and see a much needed recovery to ice such as we haven’t seen for decades.

If there is to be such a recovery we need two things: very strong and persistent ice formation this freezing season and cool 2019 with slow ice melt to preserve ice going into next year’s freeze.

I agree, but it will take some really extreme weather to have the ice return to 2005-2006 levels. And when sunspots eventually go up again (assuming this short-term forcing negates all of long-term AGW), ice will melt with a vengeance.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on November 13, 2018, 04:45:57 PM

I agree, but it will take some really extreme weather to have the ice return to 2005-2006 levels. And when sunspots eventually go up again (assuming this short-term forcing negates all of long-term AGW), ice will melt with a vengeance.


Agreed. I don't think there would be any grounds for predicting extreme cold weather except for the low sun spot activity.

Still, you mention 2005-2006 levels as a good standard. According to NSIDC, 2018 just surpassed 2006 in ice extent for 11-12 and is not far behind 2005, 2003 and 2002!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on November 13, 2018, 04:51:15 PM
FTB, I wouldn't hold ny hopes too high. I'm not sure what the new report is, but this subject has been discussed in a thread titled "Sunspot activity as a proxy for TSI".
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 13, 2018, 04:55:05 PM
FTB, I wouldn't hold ny hopes too high. I'm not sure what the new report is, but this subject has been discussed in a thread titled "Sunspot activity as a proxy for TSI".
FTB is making stuff up, SSTs are still at record highs in most of the High Arctic and the + gains in 2018 are due to early refreeze of Foxe, Baffin, and HB. Whenever someone says "but solar!" it is cause for automatic dismissal as it means they are a denier.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on November 13, 2018, 05:17:18 PM
On November 17, 2016 the Arctic sea ice, during this normal period of strong sea ice increases, actually began losing sea ice & strong ice losses occurred in the week(?) ahead! It was NOT coincidental that the greatest anomalous High Arctic temperature increase from normal also occurred.
Tho 2018 Arctic sea ice had very lethargic sea ice increases this beginning season, presently it is roughly 0.8 million square kilometers MORE than to-date 2016. During the period of to-date 2016 ice loss, it appears the days ahead for 2018 Arctic & High Arctic anomalous temperatures will not be high. Matter of fact, the anomalous low temperatures of Canada this cooling season(as well as last year), have & will expand strongly to the U.S.(Kansas & Oklahoma already 20degC below normal & strong cooling round-abouts) AND even lowering anomalous temperatures into the High Arctic. It appears that to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice will have to strongly increase in comparison to 2016 to-date Arctic sea ice for a week(?) or so.       
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 13, 2018, 05:48:05 PM
amsr2-uhh, oct12-nov12, hudson bay, foxe basin and baffin bay (2MB)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on November 13, 2018, 06:18:18 PM
FTB, I wouldn't hold ny hopes too high. I'm not sure what the new report is, but this subject has been discussed in a thread titled "Sunspot activity as a proxy for TSI".
SSTs are still at record highs in most of the High Arctic and the + gains in 2018 are due to early refreeze of Foxe, Baffin, and HB. .

Baffin yes. Hudson - not much contribution yet and you have ignored recent increase in the Kara.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 13, 2018, 06:21:14 PM
FTB, I wouldn't hold ny hopes too high. I'm not sure what the new report is, but this subject has been discussed in a thread titled "Sunspot activity as a proxy for TSI".
SSTs are still at record highs in most of the High Arctic and the + gains in 2018 are due to early refreeze of Foxe, Baffin, and HB. .

Baffin yes. Hudson - not much contribution yet and you have ignored recent increase in the Kara.

But Kara isn't + vs. normal (I am only talking + vs. normal), at least I don't think it is. Everything is refreezing poorly EXCEPT areas where freshwater has flushed and snowcover remained extant late and fell early. This invalidates the notion that "more open water has resulted in a faster refreeze because more heat has escaped" because the OPPOSITE has occurred in the High Arctic (and SSTs are warmest-ever in the Bering and Barentz, despite all that open water allegedly allowing for rapid refreeze........)

HB is going to freeze very quickly over the next week, EURO shows most of it falling sub-29/30F through this time. It has taken awhile to get going but my 11/15 prediction for 75%+ coverage (using NATICE) should be off by less than a week which I am not sad about.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 13, 2018, 06:30:33 PM
PS

The EURO is doing something rather remarkable off the NE seaboard. From 00z hrs to 240 there is an ENORMOUS bulge of warmth that approaches the coast thanks to the Gulf Stream. Evidently all the cold air falling out of Greenland / Canada into the NATL is advecting this through its ensuing generation of low pressure systems drifting NW towards the seaboard (?)

The bulk of the change occurs hours 120->168 but I am posting a GIF of 0->240 because it also continues thereafter.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/jICzAKSej6NWtxjl2r/giphy.gif)

This year is evidently going to have much more oceanic fuel for +SWE in Canada / beyond, even with levels already absurdly high. I think the combination of very cold Hudson Bay vs. normal combined with very warm ATL will yield snow totals beyond last year's in North America, and a very delayed melt for Baffin, Hudson, and CAA in 2019 (but those will be the ONLY regions to benefit from this phenomenon as it currently stands, IMO, with ice volume & concentrations likely worsening everywhere else -- maybe with Kara as exception).

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 13, 2018, 06:34:31 PM
amsr2-uhh, oct12-nov12, hudson bay, foxe basin and baffin bay (2MB)
Aww, the currents present in the area make it hard to follow the refreeze and transport. But well done to catch the start of the freeze up here
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 13, 2018, 07:32:28 PM
In recent days, the main culprits for above average area gain are:-

Baffin
CAA
Beaufort
ESS
Graphs attached (yes I know should be on extent and area data thread, but what the hell).

Laptev also, Kara joining in. (graphs on next post)


Hudson barely started.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 13, 2018, 07:33:37 PM
Laptev filled up on steroids. Will Kara do the same.?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on November 13, 2018, 07:45:36 PM
that will be fun to see HB cover up to 75% during the next 2 days.

it's a very good example for extreme bias that bbr posted today the same nonsense that hudson bay is partly responsible for recent above average gain while in fact hudson is getting behind and did contribute close to nothing and certainly won't be 75% covered in 2 days, not even 50%, probably not even 35%. just admit that it was a false assumption like i expected a significant stall in refreeze while in fact it was very short, hence did not happen the way i speculated/predicted.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 13, 2018, 07:47:35 PM
that will be fun to see HB cover up to 75% during the next 2 days.

it's a very good example for extreme bias that bbr posted today the same nonsense that hudson bay is partly responsible for recent above average gain while in fact hudson is getting behind and did contribute close to nothing and certainly won't be 75% covered in 2 days, not even 50%, probably not even 35%. just admit that it was a false assumption like i expected a significant stall in refreeze while in fact it was very short, hence did not happen the way i speculated/predicted.
...did you bother reading my post or are you just angry and illiterate?

QUOTING FOR YOU

HB is going to freeze very quickly over the next week, EURO shows most of it falling sub-29/30F through this time. It has taken awhile to get going but my 11/15 prediction for 75%+ coverage (using NATICE) should be off by less than a week which I am not sad about.

FYI, the freezing point of water is somewhere between 28-32F depending on salinity, and much of Hudson Bay is fairly fresh. Since you don't seem to know this.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: be cause on November 13, 2018, 08:47:49 PM
  lol .. can anyone find the goalposts .. someone keeps moving them .. b.c.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on November 13, 2018, 08:59:51 PM
  lol .. can anyone find the goalposts .. someone keeps moving them .. b.c.

best is looking for quoted text because that can't be altered by the author ;)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 13, 2018, 09:19:42 PM
  lol .. can anyone find the goalposts .. someone keeps moving them .. b.c.

best is looking for quoted text because that can't be altered by the author ;)
I am confident in predicting that over a good number of years Arctic Sea ice will decline.
I have zero confidence in predicting what Hudson Bay will do in the next week.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on November 13, 2018, 10:45:12 PM

I agree, but it will take some really extreme weather to have the ice return to 2005-2006 levels. And when sunspots eventually go up again (assuming this short-term forcing negates all of long-term AGW), ice will melt with a vengeance.


Agreed. I don't think there would be any grounds for predicting extreme cold weather except for the low sun spot activity.

Still, you mention 2005-2006 levels as a good standard. According to NSIDC, 2018 just surpassed 2006 in ice extent for 11-12 and is not far behind 2005, 2003 and 2002!

Sorry, I wasn't clear. When I say 2005-2006 levels, I'm referring to the minimum, unless we are talking about volume.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 13, 2018, 11:53:33 PM
(https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on November 13, 2018, 11:58:27 PM
  lol .. can anyone find the goalposts .. someone keeps moving them .. b.c.

best is looking for quoted text because that can't be altered by the author ;)
I am confident in predicting that over a good number of years Arctic Sea ice will decline.
I have zero confidence in predicting what Hudson Bay will do in the next week.

agree but i'm confident to predict that we won't see anything like 75% or 50% coverage ;) while it's definitely a pond that's gonna freeze very fast once starting in serious ;)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 14, 2018, 12:12:50 AM
  lol .. can anyone find the goalposts .. someone keeps moving them .. b.c.

best is looking for quoted text because that can't be altered by the author ;)
I am confident in predicting that over a good number of years Arctic Sea ice will decline.
I have zero confidence in predicting what Hudson Bay will do in the next week.

agree but i'm confident to predict that we won't see anything like 75% or 50% coverage ;) while it's definitely a pond that's gonna freeze very fast once starting in serious ;)
It is currently "flash freezing" from the NE as the cold reaches past a saline area separating most of HB from Foxe Basin. Most of that yellow in NE HB appeared since yesterday.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: aperson on November 14, 2018, 12:28:44 AM
...did you bother reading my post or are you just angry and illiterate?

QUOTING FOR YOU

HB is going to freeze very quickly over the next week, EURO shows most of it falling sub-29/30F through this time. It has taken awhile to get going but my 11/15 prediction for 75%+ coverage (using NATICE) should be off by less than a week which I am not sad about.

Maybe they were referring to your original post:

By 10/25, Foxe Basin should be entirely covered, by 11/15, Hudson should be mostly complete (I will say 75-85% at that point). We can revisit this post 11/16 and see if I am wrong.

You made a falsifiable forecast and it busted. Kudos to you for actually making a falsifiable prediction for once. However, accept your estimation error instead of shifting the goalposts.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 14, 2018, 01:09:10 AM
...did you bother reading my post or are you just angry and illiterate?

QUOTING FOR YOU

HB is going to freeze very quickly over the next week, EURO shows most of it falling sub-29/30F through this time. It has taken awhile to get going but my 11/15 prediction for 75%+ coverage (using NATICE) should be off by less than a week which I am not sad about.

Maybe they were referring to your original post:

By 10/25, Foxe Basin should be entirely covered, by 11/15, Hudson should be mostly complete (I will say 75-85% at that point). We can revisit this post 11/16 and see if I am wrong.

You made a falsifiable forecast and it busted. Kudos to you for actually making a falsifiable prediction for once. However, accept your estimation error instead of shifting the goalposts.

I am accepting the error? The forecast was still close to reality. It isn't even 11/15 yet. And it won't be frozen 75% by then. But 11/20? I am not so sure. The point is not that I am wrong or right, the point is that HUDSON BAY IS FREEZING EARLY and this has impacts to sensible weather elsewhere (IMO).

Bering has ALWAYS frozen before Hudson since XXXX years ago. Maybe centuries? But in the modern record, I highly doubt we will have ever had as much open water in Bering vs. Hudson as we will a week or so from now. This relative differential is very important because it means cold airmasses can center on North America much earlier and much more steadily vs. normal, anchored by the heat domes in Bering / Barentz on both sides (+500MB anomalies), and this will result in MAJOR oceanic warmth pushing towards the High Arctic as the continental albedo / oceanic heat pump is kicking into ever-higher gear.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on November 14, 2018, 03:16:49 AM
I am accepting the error? The forecast was still close to reality. It isn't even 11/15 yet. And it won't be frozen 75% by then. But 11/20? I am not so sure. The point is not that I am wrong or right, the point is that HUDSON BAY IS FREEZING EARLY and this has impacts to sensible weather elsewhere (IMO).

Bering has ALWAYS frozen before Hudson since XXXX years ago. Maybe centuries? But in the modern record, I highly doubt we will have ever had as much open water in Bering vs. Hudson as we will a week or so from now. This relative differential is very important because it means cold airmasses can center on North America much earlier and much more steadily vs. normal, anchored by the heat domes in Bering / Barentz on both sides (+500MB anomalies), and this will result in MAJOR oceanic warmth pushing towards the High Arctic as the continental albedo / oceanic heat pump is kicking into ever-higher gear.
Hudson Bay is NOT FREEZING EARLY. Ice area growth in HB is exactly what it was in other recent years, as shown by data from the accurate AMSR2. We are following in 2015's footsteps almost to a pixel. Note: the graph is still in Nov 12th, so 3 more days until the original claim.
Doubling down on your unwarranted prediction by moving it to Nov 20th will not help. The best predictor for HB is its past recent behavior, and this predictor says 75% ice cover will not be reached before Dec 1st.

As for the rest, I am pretty sure 2017 had it worse than this year, as the Chukchi then was much delayed. Bering does not actually begin freezing meaningfully before Dec 1st in any of the recent years so the claim on Bering vs. Hudson is either worded incorrectly or just false.
About the basic claim underlying a lot of your prophesying, that ice in Bering/Barents compared to HB (or that NA snow cover) sets the weather over North America, I am unqualified to judge, but I am far from confident that you are getting it right - without seeing support from published science or seeing a detailed trend analysis of the past, preferably in chart form, since at least 2000, without cherry-picking, wording it correctly and precisely and checking for what you are actually claiming.
Please note - I am not trying to be nasty or anything. But when you make extraordinary claims repeatedly on a scientific forum, you must be able to back them with extraordinary proof, or expect lots of criticism and disbelief.
If you would just stick to the facts, after they actually occur, comparing to a long trend of past years rather than just a single year of choice, your posts could be much more to the point, as you seem to have a lot of knowledge and are willing to put the time investment.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on November 14, 2018, 05:16:33 AM

I think the freeze up of the Chukchi is going to be interesting. Will it freeze quickly despite how warm it was earlier in the year? The Laptev freeze was so rapid. What an astounding amount of latent heat of fusion the earth radiated away in just a few days. Wow. I wonder if the Chukchi will go the same way.

I don't get all the debate over the Hudson as it's clearly following the pattern of other years +/- a few days. I'm sorry BBR, I stopped reading your posts, and I'm sorry, my erudite fellow forumers, I also stopped reading posts that relate to them. BBR, I am certain you have good points to make, but In my opinion you are shrouding them in too much speculation to be worth the effort to unpick the logic of your hypothesis. It's simply not worth my time.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 14, 2018, 07:58:08 AM
^why bother writing a reply to me if you aren't reading?  lol

00z EURO = WOW +500MB NATL... 585dm over Scandinavia!

For all who are bad at math: 96 hours is four days out (days have 24 hours)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018111400/ecmwf_z500aNorm_nhem_5.png)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: aperson on November 14, 2018, 09:47:07 AM
500hPa percentiles for the above plot (from: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/tburg/analysis/loop.php?model=ecm&prod=500hght_perc&proj=nh&archive=0&run=2018111400)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on November 14, 2018, 12:02:50 PM
As far as here in the UK are concerned our MetO went on record over last low solar to show a pattern of northern blocking in the N.Atlantic which , for us in NW Europe, can mean a long fetch from Siberia making it all the way to UK/Ireland.

The winter of 09/10 provided the UK with just that but it only takes a little tweak of that northern block to see SE airs or SW airs bathing us over the depths of winter?

As for the basin itself?

If it leads to a stable polar night jet setting up then you might see 'yesteryear' type ice formation with the cold all locked into the basin without leaks?

I'm not buying it as 2012 stands between us and our 09/10 winter. The near seasonal opening of the Pacific side of the basin ( on top of our atlantic sides reluctance to hold onto ice) must have added another belt of energy into the mangling of the Polar night Jet/messing with the polar troposphere so altering the polar front around the temperate zones?

So I do not expect a 'repeat' of last low solar?

Extremes 'Yes' indeed but freezing? No we have warmed more and the basin harvests far more solar than it could last low solar so impacts /skews the trop/lower strat far more than last time.

Buckle up though ( unless in California thern be prepared to RUN!!!! )
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 14, 2018, 08:18:16 PM

I think the freeze up of the Chukchi is going to be interesting. Will it freeze quickly despite how warm it was earlier in the year? The Laptev freeze was so rapid. What an astounding amount of latent heat of fusion the earth radiated away in just a few days. Wow. I wonder if the Chukchi will go the same way.

I don't get all the debate over the Hudson as it's clearly following the pattern of other years +/- a few days.
The Chukchi area gain is accelerating
Attached is the whole year graph for Hudson to show its total ordinariness.
The Kara is looking to do a Laptev on current trends.
The Central Arctic Sea is a bit of a surprise.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on November 14, 2018, 08:38:00 PM
2x yes

a) original post (later repeated until it was inevitable)  as well as the general far off reality postings, predictions, 10+ days forecasts that only serve to derail the useful discussion and last but not least the predictin for a new imminent ice-age (re-glacification) in canada. all this belongs together to sooner or later react before muting. without ignore list i would probably not even read certain threads, this way i only see quotes and mostly just chuckle and enjoy that the BS mostly evades me.

b) +1
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on November 14, 2018, 09:59:26 PM
as you seem to have a lot of knowledge and are willing to put the time investment.

over all an extremely great post (as usual) and to the point, includes the last sentence which is about my reaction to his first post ever about a theory i shared (and was wrong) ;)

i love people who think out of the box but it's a difficult task to use language perfectly balanced to not fall into "that" trap. unfortunately my english and and at times impatience to look up better terms and re-read before posting make me often fail on that task which is why i love your posts, they more or less mirror what i WANT to say, only in a perfect manner.

thanks
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on November 14, 2018, 10:04:42 PM
It is funny how all the random old people here don't like model output...

I don't like any model output over five (used to be three) days from present period.  Whether weather or climate.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on November 14, 2018, 10:16:03 PM
Magna have no worries, your English is very good and you are well undestood.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on November 14, 2018, 11:00:36 PM
Magna have no worries, your English is very good and you are well undestood.

thanks, thing is that i compare my english skills to my german (mother tongue) and in comparison it's (felt) horrible ;) ;)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 15, 2018, 08:39:54 AM
November 10-14.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 15, 2018, 08:33:25 PM
esrl ice thickness forecast, nov14-21

https://floe.keytwist.net/esrl-daily-forecasts/2018-11-14
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Michael Hauber on November 16, 2018, 06:38:10 AM
A guy at NASA just came out with a report saying we will have unusually cold weather starting in about 6 weeks because of persistent lack of sunspot activity. This low has been predicted for years and we’ll see how it affects earth temperatures. Who know but maybe we will get heavy freezing this year over the arctic and see a much needed recovery to ice such as we haven’t seen for decades.

If there is to be such a recovery we need two things: very strong and persistent ice formation this freezing season and cool 2019 with slow ice melt to preserve ice going into next year’s freeze.

Sorry for the late response but I've been a bit bored with Arctic Ice lately.  Google for 'NASA cold weather satellite' finds a few media articles in the last few days.  The daily mail (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6384457/Lack-sunspots-bring-Space-Age-record-cold-weather-NASA-scientist-warns.html) makes this claim and is nice enough to link a source (https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/09/27/the-chill-of-solar-minimum/).  The prediction was made in September and here is the key quote:

Quote
“We see a cooling trend,” says Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center. “High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold.”

They refer to the thermosphere - which starts about 80km above the surface.  Interesting but probably not at all relevant to surface conditions.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on November 16, 2018, 11:13:34 AM
"A guy at NASA"
 Zharkova predicts, based on a decline in the strength of the suns magnetic field, that the cooling effect will last for up to 30 years, and suggests that the biggest problem, from a climate prespective, is that the growing season will shorten and harvest failures are almost inevitable. [that Gov. should begin to stockpile food reserves] The prime cause of this escapes me, the subject is glossed/passed over, iirc Zharkova says the effect is like opening the greenhouse window causing a rapid loss of heat to space.
 If the above is true, with the ocean being as warm as it is we may see huge energy gradients between the arctic and continental heartlands driving extreme weather. Of course the North Atlantic is cooler than we're used to, this will create a lower background temp. for any weather action in western Europe. With Labrador and Barents being so warm some unusual snowfalls may occur. Interesting times
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on November 16, 2018, 11:36:17 AM
"A guy at NASA"
 Zharkova predicts, based on a decline in the strength of the suns magnetic field, that the cooling effect will last for up to 30 years, and suggests that the biggest problem, from a climate prespective, is that the growing season will shorten and harvest failures are almost inevitable. [that Gov. should begin to stockpile food reserves] The prime cause of this escapes me, the subject is glossed/passed over, iirc Zharkova says the effect is like opening the greenhouse window causing a rapid loss of heat to space.
 If the above is true, with the ocean being as warm as it is we may see huge energy gradients between the arctic and continental heartlands driving extreme weather. Of course the North Atlantic is cooler than we're used to, this will create a lower background temp. for any weather action in western Europe. With Labrador and Barents being so warm some unusual snowfalls may occur. Interesting times

Zharkova is a solar physicist with no expertise or publications on the link with solar activity and the Earths's climate, or anything else to do with climatology.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on November 16, 2018, 12:06:43 PM
Call me a skeptic on this one.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 16, 2018, 12:39:50 PM
" A guy at NASA says"
"Zharkova predicts".

No links even to a press release, let alone a paper or study.

Pathetic and binned.

ps: Forgot to add the thanks to Micheal Hauber for squashing "the man from NASA".
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on November 16, 2018, 01:35:40 PM
Link to Zharkovas recent talk here
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2250.msg180479.html#msg180479
paper  (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/266799418_Prediction_of_Solar_Activity_from_Solar_Background_Magnetic_Field_Variations_in_Cycles_21-23)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Sleepy on November 16, 2018, 01:49:29 PM
Yeah, saw that one. GWPF.

Edit; updated the solar cycle thread:
A small collection of papers. Zharkova critique in No 3.
1. Frost fairs, sunspots and the Little Ice Age
2. The Maunder minimum and the Little Ice Age: an update from
recent reconstructions and climate simulations (posted in #11 above with Fig3)
3. Comment on the paper by Popova et al. “On a role of quadruple component of magnetic field in defining solar activity in grand cycles”
4. Predicting space climate change
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 16, 2018, 02:11:36 PM
Link to Zharkovas recent talk here
John, John.

Neven will be furious. No links to the dark side allowed, and the gwpf is one of the darkest. Scum financed by scum.

So I deleted your link in your "solar cycle" from this post.

Professor Valentina Zharkova gave a presentation of her Climate and the Solar Magnetic Field hypothesis at the Global Warming Policy Foundation in October, 2018.


Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on November 16, 2018, 02:45:57 PM
I removed the link. My blood is boiling.  ;)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Sleepy on November 16, 2018, 03:03:10 PM
While you're at it Neven, maybe kill or un-link those three to principia-scientific (Heller, Dellingpole etc) in that thread as well?
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2250.msg147879.html#msg147879 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2250.msg147879.html#msg147879)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on November 16, 2018, 10:44:50 PM
Polar View image of Foxe Basin (almost closed in) 15th November.

Prince Charles Island is to the top with Baffin's Foxe Peninsula to the bottom of the image.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 17, 2018, 01:02:11 AM
The Hudson refreeze now has momentum. Should be mostly done in a few days. NYC just had its
largest early season snowstorm on record btw, with 6.4" measured in Central Park yesterday.

(https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/prvsnow_usa.gif)

(https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on November 17, 2018, 03:22:27 AM
Bbr's combination of poor methodology/research and misleading speculation is like the rubbish one finds on denialist sites. Moreover, his egoic need to be right and his inability to converse with others in a respectful way is also indicative of the righteous divisiveness that has infected public discourse on climate change and other politicized issues.

It's nice to come to ASIF and get a reprieve from all that social media madness. I understand the importance of allowing for disagreeing points of view, but isn't enough, enough? The Arctic has plenty of drama on its own and plenty of areas of debate that are 'in' the realm of actual science.   

While I'm glad that bbr's previous very juvenile and nasty post was deleted, i had hoped at least that he would've been banned for a while.  Oh well ???

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 17, 2018, 03:30:29 AM
Bbr's combination of poor methodology/research and misleading speculation is like the rubbish one finds on denialist sites. Moreover, his egoic need to be right and his inability to converse with others in a respectful way is also indicative of the righteous divisiveness that has infected public discourse on climate change and other politicized issues.

It's nice to come to ASIF and get a reprieve from all that social media madness. I understand the importance of allowing for disagreeing points of view, but isn't enough, enough? The Arctic has plenty of drama on its own and plenty of areas of debate that are 'in' the realm of actual science.   

While I'm glad that bbr's previous very juvenile and nasty post was deleted, i had hoped at least that he would've been banned for a while.  Oh well ???
You seem pretty angry. I will be off by a few days re: HB. I don't know why people keep repeating this because obviously 11/15 was incorrect and too early. Give it another week. My overall point has been snow + cold in Canada and surrounding water bodies (CAA HB BB) and overarching warmth elsewhere and that has been 100% correct this autumn.

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/plot_anom_sdep.png)

Also: it is astonishingly cold over much of the high latitudes relative to normal, especially in the Canadian Shield. Readings are 20C or more BELOW normal.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018111618/fv3p_T2ma_nhem_9.png)

So instead of being angry and wrong maybe you can just be quiet.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on November 17, 2018, 06:08:10 AM
It's amazingly warm in the high latitutudes relative to normal, especially in Western Canada and Greenland, with positive anomalies reaching almost 20 degrees Centigrade over the Canadian Rockies and the central Greenland ice cap. A persistent cold cell hovers over the Canadian Archipelago and down to the Western Hudson Bay, with negative anomalies reaching almost 15 degrees Centigrade.

The three months forecast also shows (with a large pinch of salt) amazingly warm temperatures over the entire Arctic, particularly over the Bering area, but also significant over Greenland and Svalbard. Also surprisingly above average temperatures over the Canadian Archipelago!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on November 17, 2018, 06:08:42 AM
Bbr's combination of poor methodology/research and misleading speculation is like the rubbish one finds on denialist sites. Moreover, his egoic need to be right and his inability to converse with others in a respectful way is also indicative of the righteous divisiveness that has infected public discourse on climate change and other politicized issues.

Well said sir!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 17, 2018, 08:58:44 AM
November 12-16.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Alexander555 on November 17, 2018, 09:46:47 AM
Aluminium, is it not possible to make it a little bit bigger ? So that we can see what happens east end west of greenland .
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on November 17, 2018, 10:32:19 AM


The three months forecast also shows (with a large pinch of salt) amazingly warm temperatures over the entire Arctic, particularly over the Bering area, but also significant over Greenland and Svalbard. Also surprisingly above average temperatures over the Canadian Archipelago!

Looking at that chart, I dont see it like that at all !

Besides the fact it is the CFS long range, which is often well wrong (pinch of salt as you say), but chart to me looks cold over most of the Arctic Sea Ice covered areas. I cant see how you make out the CAA is warm. I can only make out just one or two dots of the first yellow colour +0.25 C in predominant blue.

Yes we do see usual suspects south Chukchi, Bering, Svalbard with high anomalies, which is basically just the CFS saying it thinks ice will be very slow there or not form at all. But thats almost a no-brainer.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on November 17, 2018, 11:15:35 AM


The three months forecast also shows (with a large pinch of salt) amazingly warm temperatures over the entire Arctic, particularly over the Bering area, but also significant over Greenland and Svalbard. Also surprisingly above average temperatures over the Canadian Archipelago!

Looking at that chart, I dont see it like that at all !

Well, that was like the whole point! I see things that you don't - and my guess is as good as yours as to which is "right" - however, the very unusal warmth over Bering and significant warmth over the Siberian seas, over Svalbard, and significantly, over the entire Greenland ice cap I find truly remarkable.

But does it mean anything? Can I make predictions? Have I made comparisons? No - so it's all just talking off the top of my head.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on November 17, 2018, 11:56:51 AM
As long as bbr2314 doesn't try to spread his pet theory into too many threads, I think there's room for him here, so don't dump on him too much. But by all means, point out where he is wrong or the forecasts he posts, don't pan out. How will we get through winter without a bit of heated disagreement?  ;)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 17, 2018, 01:38:37 PM
As long as bbr2314 doesn't try to spread his pet theory into too many threads, I think there's room for him here, so don't dump on him too much. But by all means, point out where he is wrong or the forecasts he posts, don't pan out. How will we get through winter without a bit of heated disagreement?  ;)
Thanks, Neven.
After all, like the Farmers' Almanac, some of the predictions will come good. There is a lot of snow in Quebec.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 17, 2018, 03:44:17 PM


The three months forecast also shows (with a large pinch of salt) amazingly warm temperatures over the entire Arctic, particularly over the Bering area, but also significant over Greenland and Svalbard. Also surprisingly above average temperatures over the Canadian Archipelago!

Looking at that chart, I dont see it like that at all !

Well, that was like the whole point! I see things that you don't - and my guess is as good as yours as to which is "right" - however, the very unusal warmth over Bering and significant warmth over the Siberian seas, over Svalbard, and significantly, over the entire Greenland ice cap I find truly remarkable.

But does it mean anything? Can I make predictions? Have I made comparisons? No - so it's all just talking off the top of my head.

I am not sure that you “see” things that others don’t. Rather, I think you “focus” on things that others don’t.  There is enough warmth and cold in those forecast to make either case.  Someone else could do a pixel by pixel analysis to arrive at an “average” conclusion.  But what’s the point?  These are just forecasts.  These posts seems to emphasize the worst in the alarmist/denialist argument.  Each looks at the numbers which support their particular beliefs only.  The same could be said for the freezing of the Baffin and Barents seas.  This is just weather, and as is typical with weather, where there is warmth on one area, there is cold in another.  I understand that it is fun to make predictions.  But remember that is all they are.  Bbr made his Hudson sea predictions, and I will say no more about it.  Currently, the freeze is slightly ahead of the past decadal average.  Is that indicative of a higher maximum than last year?  Probably, but not with any degree of certainty.  FWIW, I think the Arctic sea ice maximum will be higher than last season.  But that is not really a stretch.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on November 17, 2018, 04:23:44 PM
FTB, I wouldn't hold ny hopes too high. I'm not sure what the new report is, but this subject has been discussed in a thread titled "Sunspot activity as a proxy for TSI".
FTB is making stuff up, SSTs are still at record highs in most of the High Arctic and the + gains in 2018 are due to early refreeze of Foxe, Baffin, and HB. Whenever someone says "but solar!" it is cause for automatic dismissal as it means they are a denier.

Am I? I’m just trying to assimilate all the data available. Is name calling really conducive to enlightening discussion?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/09/27/the-chill-of-solar-minimum/amp/

<Any reply to this can go into a solar thread, thanks; N.>
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 17, 2018, 07:00:25 PM
amsr2-uhh overlaid onto mercator 0m salinity, oct1-nov16. The salinity scale is only valid for areas of open water.
edit: The salinity animation is used here to show some longer term ocean related trends and currents as opposed to shorter term temperature and weather related events. All of which affect ice growth and loss to varying degrees.
Mercator Ocean is a model, but analysis of buoy data in the Beaufort supports its validity as a useful tool.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on November 18, 2018, 01:28:22 PM
Yesterday, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent jumped to 910,000 square kilometers more than 2016. Today, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent jumped to 1 million square kilometers more than 2016.

 To-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent is a total 1.05 million square kilometers more than 2016! Now, 2018 is even approaching the sea ice extent average of the 2010's, despite High Arctic temperatures leaping to 10degC above average.
To-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent is 1.12 million square kilometers MORE than 2016! Now, 2018 also has MORE sea ice extent than the average of the 2010's, despite very warm High Arctic temperatures since direct solar radiation disappeared from the Arctic.
///////
The above posts were preparing for the very present widely diverging Arctic sea ice quantities now occurring in to-date extents between 2016 & 2018. A few days ago, 2018 Arctic sea ice extent was only ~ 0.8 million square kilometers more than 2016. While to-date 2016 High Arctic temperatures were wildly sky-high record levels, compared to normal, today's 2018 High Arctic temperatures are less than 3degC above normal, the lowest anomaly over the last ~ 2 months. It is NOT coincidental that 2018 sea ice has plastered an extra 100,000 square kilometers of ice into the Arctic in 1 day. Also NOT coincidental, but TOTALLY surprising at the time, 2016 Arctic sea ice started losing ice. In only a few days, the gap between 2016 & 2018 ripped wider by 4/10ths of a million square kilometers to a total difference of 1.2 million square kilometers. As wide a gap as this most recent diversion from each other is, it can be expected that even wider 2016-2018 splits in sea ice quantities will occur in the next days ahead.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 18, 2018, 01:29:02 PM
Despite the low temperatures, Nares is still exporting and, surprisingly, there is still movement in the Mclure Strait.
Worldview brightness temperature,band15,night.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on November 18, 2018, 02:27:39 PM
Thanks Uniquorn. The Nares Strait will often stay open/exporting well into the Spring. To quote this post from Tor Bejner:

Nares Strait is often (always? in recent years) open at least into December (but I don't have the statistics).  In 2006-07, it never closed.  I understand that in other years no effective bridge formed, too.  Neven, in 2013, recommended The Broken Bridges of Nares (http://www.science20.com/chatter_box/arctic_tipping_points_4_broken_bridges_nares) for those who want to learn some history of Nares ice bridges.

It's been quite a turnaround since the low points in late September/October. NSIDC charctic extent value for Nov 17th shows that in the 13 years since 2005, only 3 years (2008,2014 and 2015) have had greater extent.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on November 18, 2018, 05:10:22 PM
The freezing season is very strong of late. After falling to lowest ever 2018 is now in 11th place, exceeding every year since 2006 in ice extent except 2008 and 2014. Can’t be sure what’s driving this since temps in arctic are not below average.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 18, 2018, 10:57:43 PM
<snippage>Neven, in 2013, recommended The Broken Bridges of Nares (http://www.science20.com/chatter_box/arctic_tipping_points_4_broken_bridges_nares) for those who want to learn some history of Nares ice bridges.

Thanks for this, good sunday afternoon reading.
odden ice tongue, 1993. Fram Strait blocked.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: colchonero on November 18, 2018, 11:23:13 PM
The freezing season is very strong of late. After falling to lowest ever 2018 is now in 11th place, exceeding every year since 2006 in ice extent except 2008 and 2014. Can’t be sure what’s driving this since temps in arctic are not below average.

Well at least we don't have extreme anomalies(except in Greenland sea right now, that should hang tere for couple of days), and there was certainly some heat loss caused by late refreeze (the negative side of that was/(still is) will the ice thicken enough before the spring, because of the late freeze.

For example when you look at the mid-range forecast (D3-D7 now, although models have seen this coming in most of the latest runs) it seems to be pretty good for the sea ice, having in mind we are approaching the end of November, which was not that common in the past years.  There is a dominant high pressure over heart of CAB (where ice needs to thicken)  which should result in clear skies, and most importantly it is a relatively cold HP  system (it is not coming from ridging from the south and so it won't bring ridiculous +ve temp850hPa anomalies).   Also, we have normal or even a bit below normal Temp850hPa  over Canadian side reaching Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait (places where ice needs to form yet) and also along the Atlantic "seaboard" (front+Kara&Barents). Not to mention persistent (at least forecasted) northerlies that should push the ice towards Chukchi and also on the Atlantic side, although not that strong. 

But then, Idk if this weather will help much, since the water got really warm especially around Bering Strait and it didn't cool off completely yet. But that's something you always have to count on lately (it would have been a big surprise if the water wasn't this warm, since globally we haven't had a month below normal for a very long time)

Temp 2m anomalies were pretty positive largely (not entirely!) due to lack of ice especially on the Russian side. This time last year (and through whole Winter) we had southerlies all over the place on the pacific side
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 18, 2018, 11:30:41 PM
The "strong refreeze" narrative is a bunch of nonsense. There is more heat than ever in the high-latitude oceans (Bering and Barents). The refreeze has been led by the situation in Baffin, CAA, and Hudson Bay, and the early refreeze of these regions for reasons that portend a very LATE refreeze in the high Arctic are exactly why this trope is ridiculous. 2018 has seen a quick refreeze of certain peripheral regions due to conditions resulting from the worst-ever anomalies further to the north and this pattern will continue through winter, while numbers may even be higher than 2017 through May, I expect the bottom to fall out by the end of May or June again (mimicking closely what happened in spring 2015).
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: colchonero on November 18, 2018, 11:40:00 PM
The "strong refreeze" narrative is a bunch of nonsense. There is more heat than ever in the high-latitude oceans (Bering and Barents). The refreeze has been led by the situation in Baffin, CAA, and Hudson Bay, and the early refreeze of these regions for reasons that portend a very LATE refreeze in the high Arctic are exactly why this trope is ridiculous. 2018 has seen a quick refreeze of certain peripheral regions due to conditions resulting from the worst-ever anomalies further to the north and this pattern will continue through winter, while numbers may even be higher than 2017 through May, I expect the bottom to fall out by the end of May or June again (mimicking closely what happened in spring 2015).

I know many here have tried to explain to you and it didn't work, but as of this morning there is NO SIGNIFICANT EARLY REFREEZE of Hudson Bay. Look at UH data (at least I think it's UH) that has been posted several times. First significant area uptick (20k+) when you look at NSIDC 5-day average that gerontocrat is posting, was today.  If you keep saying something is happening, that won't make it true. It might happen in the next couple of days (strong gains) but as of now it DIDN'T, despite your constant writing.


Because of that, even some of your points that are valid people won't take seriously, instead they'll think you are spreading misinformation again.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on November 18, 2018, 11:44:44 PM
The "strong refreeze" narrative is a bunch of nonsense. There is more heat than ever in the high-latitude oceans (Bering and Barents).

Bering Sea = "high latitude" ?

Now that's what I call a bunch of nonsense.

Quick Google Search. Bering Sea Latitude = 56.9 degrees North.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 18, 2018, 11:48:44 PM
The "strong refreeze" narrative is a bunch of nonsense. There is more heat than ever in the high-latitude oceans (Bering and Barents). The refreeze has been led by the situation in Baffin, CAA, and Hudson Bay, and the early refreeze of these regions for reasons that portend a very LATE refreeze in the high Arctic are exactly why this trope is ridiculous. 2018 has seen a quick refreeze of certain peripheral regions due to conditions resulting from the worst-ever anomalies further to the north and this pattern will continue through winter, while numbers may even be higher than 2017 through May, I expect the bottom to fall out by the end of May or June again (mimicking closely what happened in spring 2015).

I know many here have tried to explain to you and it didn't work, but as of this morning there is NO SIGNIFICANT EARLY REFREEZE of Hudson Bay. Look at UH data (at least I think it's UH) that has been posted several times. First significant area uptick (20k+) when you look at NSIDC 5-day average that gerontocrat is posting, was today.  If you keep saying something is happening, that won't make it true. It might happen in the next couple of days (strong gains) but as of now it DIDN'T, despite your constant writing.


Because of that, even some of your points that are valid people won't take seriously, instead they'll think you are spreading misinformation again.
It is happening. Go look at EOSDIS and stop screeching, jeez. You sound like an angry parrot.

(https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: colchonero on November 18, 2018, 11:52:18 PM
It's not being angry, it's about making important parts more visible, like when you write LATE for example. I can do that either by making it bold, or by using capital letters. But I'll make it bold in the future, so there isn't misunderstanding.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 18, 2018, 11:54:31 PM
It's not being angry, it's making important parts more visible, like when you write LATE for example. I can do that either by making it bold or using capital letters. But I'll make it bold in the future so, there isn't misunderstanding.
It is happening much earlier than normal and AMQRTWTWT will show this imminently, but in the meantime, I would advise looking at actual EOSDIS imagery instead of trusting some random computer's output. It can be visually informative. The refreeze will be mostly done in a few days.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 19, 2018, 01:26:29 AM
Compare the earliest HB refreeze in recent years (2015) with 2018 and you can see how this year's momentum is finally showing. But it has been very obvious for a while. 2015 stalled fairly majorly after this point (and other years were not as close), the differential will finally become very noticeable within the next week.

(https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_v3/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/USA/2015/ims2015322_usa.gif)

(https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_v3/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/USA/2018/ims2018322_usa.gif)

2018 has ice ringing almost the entirety of HB and the snowcover this year has also been vastly more impressive. In fact, we are now well over +50% vs. normal SWE for North America.

Also: here is an update on current Great Lakes SSTs vs. last two years, looks like with all the crazy the past few weeks, drops have begun accelerating again.

Lake, vs 2017, vs 2016

Superior: -1.6F, -4.4F
Michigan: -2.2F, -5.3F
Huron: -2.0F, -4.7F
Erie: -3.2F, -6.8F
Ontario: -2.2F, -3.6F
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on November 19, 2018, 01:28:36 AM
bbr, if you have a point to make about HB and EOSDIS, why don't you post a comparison of EOSDIS images for 2018 vs. 2015, 2014, 2017, 2013? These are years where UH AMSR2 area data shows similar values. The best would be an animation. Instead of capitalizing messages and making sure to post the last word, you could try to actually prove your point.
Calling UH AMSR2 data "some random computer's output" on this forum is not going to cut it.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 19, 2018, 01:28:48 AM
The refreeze will be mostly done in a few days.

I'm guessing no based on this extent map. I guess we will know in a few days
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 19, 2018, 01:35:17 AM
bbr, if you have a point to make about HB and EOSDIS, why don't you post a comparison of EOSDIS images for 2018 vs. 2015, 2014, 2017, 2013? These are years where UH AMSR2 area data shows similar values. The best would be an animation. Instead of capitalizing messages and making sure to post the last word, you could try to actually prove your point.
Calling UH AMSR2 data "some random computer's output" on this forum is not going to cut it.
Go here and swap out the year for the year you want to compare with for a uniform and easy way to gauge comparisons between years: (link may say unsecure) I would do a GIF but they save as .gifs so screenshotting etc is too much work.

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_v3/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/USA/2018/ims2018322_usa.gif

It is clear (browsing back through the end) that the only comparable recent years are 2015 and 2017 also comes close. As mentioned, 2015 lost momentum following the early surge, and 2017 also saw a pause. I do not think we see a pause this year as momentum has been building for much longer and per the EURO, SSTs are much colder than 2017.

Also: we now have the first ice on both Huron and Superior! Very little, but still an early start.

(https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/NAIS25WCT/20181118180000_NAIS25WCT_0010328834.gif)

(https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/NAIS25ECT/20181118180000_NAIS25ECT_0010328828.gif)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on November 19, 2018, 02:15:45 AM
Can’t be sure what’s driving this since temps in arctic are not below average.
Much of the over-heating in the Arctic & High Arctic, usually comes from temperate & even tropical lower latitudes, during this time of complete Arctic darkness. Presently however, cold that has been in almost all of fall Canada, dipping at times into the U.S., strengthened a week or two ago. Parts of the mid U.S., at times, were 20degC below average, with some cold dipping into Mexico. Also, the Canadian cold pushed into the Arctic & even to the High Arctic. The High Arctic for the past two months, being as high as 10degC over normal, has not only dropped precipitously in degC, but even fell further, as much as 7degC below anomalous high levels, during this period of fall complete Arctic darkness. 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: HapHazard on November 19, 2018, 03:29:52 AM
It's been "in a few days" for a few weeks now.  ;) (please stop quoting people who are on my blocklist, folks!)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: wdmn on November 19, 2018, 07:08:23 AM
GFS has the temperature anomalies in NH and world rising quickly through the rest of November. Not sure what that means if anything for the freeze up, being new here, but it seems relevant given bbr's claims.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 19, 2018, 09:46:29 AM
Aluminium, is it not possible to make it a little bit bigger ? So that we can see what happens east end west of greenland .
I don't want to change area. Any area may be a little bit bigger. Current size is convenient for me and includes main part of the Arctic Ocean.

November 14-18.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 19, 2018, 10:22:08 AM
amsr2-uhh, husdon bay, foxe basin, nov10-18
edit: added worldview-hudson-nov19
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: pleun on November 19, 2018, 11:54:12 AM
The freezing season is very strong of late. After falling to lowest ever 2018 is now in 11th place, exceeding every year since 2006 in ice extent except 2008 and 2014. Can’t be sure what’s driving this since temps in arctic are not below average.

I was wondering about the exact same thing. could it maybe have something to do with the Mpemba effect (warmer water freezes quicker than cold water) ?

https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1310/1310.6514.pdf

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 19, 2018, 12:31:09 PM
I am sure Hudson Bay will freeze up quickly over the next few days, and ice area will be well above the 2010's average and probably the 2000's average as well.

But, GFS, wunderground.com etc predict a significant weather change as warmth spreads West to East across N. America (but not the extreme NE). By Friday /Saturday extreme cold will have lessened greatly in much of Central Canada including south of Foxe Basin. This could slow freezing of the southern half  of Hudson Bay considerably.

"That is my speculation and it belongs to me"
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Quantum on November 19, 2018, 01:21:13 PM
The freezing season is very strong of late. After falling to lowest ever 2018 is now in 11th place, exceeding every year since 2006 in ice extent except 2008 and 2014. Can’t be sure what’s driving this since temps in arctic are not below average.

I was wondering about the exact same thing. could it maybe have something to do with the Mpemba effect (warmer water freezes quicker than cold water) ?

https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1310/1310.6514.pdf

I think the Mpemba effect was discredited recently and can be explained through measurement error. With regards to the freezing season 'above average' may be a bit misleading in a rapidly warming arctic. Was it above average with respect to more recent years? And I suppose even if it was as long as the peripheries are colder than normal we can still have a faster than normal freezing season.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on November 19, 2018, 06:06:01 PM
In only a few days, the gap between 2016 & 2018 ripped wider by 4/10ths of a million square kilometers to a total difference of 1.2 million square kilometers. As wide a gap as this most recent diversion from each other is, it can be expected that even wider 2016-2018 splits in sea ice quantities will occur in the next days ahead.
As expected, in 1 day the 2016-2018 sea ice extent gap ripped open further, now to almost 1.5 million square kilometers. Most of the sea ice gap ripping was due to the present High Arctic & Arctic atmospheric chilling, funneling from Canada. However, the extreme to-date 2016 anomalous heating also caused sea ice extent LOSS, contributing to the wild splaying 2016-2018 sea ice extent separation. Should be more 2016-2018 sea ice extent widening coming.   
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Alexander555 on November 19, 2018, 07:20:58 PM
Aluminium, thanks anyway. It's pretty amazing to see the Arctic change from day to day.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Sterks on November 19, 2018, 09:06:50 PM
Aluminium, is it not possible to make it a little bit bigger ? So that we can see what happens east end west of greenland .
I don't want to change area. Any area may be a little bit bigger. Current size is convenient for me and includes main part of the Arctic Ocean.

November 14-18.
No problem. I block you until June. Your now irrelevant half a mega is currently inconvenient for me when loading the page. Merry Christmas and happy 2019!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on November 19, 2018, 09:31:57 PM
Just to put in a different opinion, I find Aluminium's animations still quite useful. I do note they are not posted daily anymore, but actually every two days which is better in the current season. The developments in the Chukchi and Barents/Kara/Svalbard regions are still relevant and informative.
Later on, it's best either to increase animation size to show the peripheral areas, or even better to quit posting these animations until changes return to the central regions. Or post them every 5-10 days.
During the main season these were the posts I most looked forward to, besides the area/extent numbers.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: miki on November 19, 2018, 09:43:17 PM
Just to put in a different opinion, I find Aluminium's animations still quite useful. I do not they are not posted daily anymore, but actually every two days which is better in the current season. The developments in the Chukchi and Barents/Kara/Svalbard regions are still relevant and informative.

Ditto. Thank, Aluminium.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 19, 2018, 10:17:22 PM
Or post them every 5-10 days.
It's highly likely. Changes in the central Arctic will be minimal but the Barents Sea and, possible, the Bering Strait still could be interesting in winter.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on November 19, 2018, 11:12:24 PM
I am sure Hudson Bay will freeze up quickly over the next few days,By Friday /Saturday extreme cold will have lessened greatly in much of Central Canada including south of Foxe Basin. This could slow freezing of the southern half  of Hudson Bay considerably.

my thoughts exactly hence sorry to share your property [Just Kidding]

in such cases it's at times good to look at temps instead of anomalies because anomalies of +20C in winter can mean -20C still cold enough for a full freeze but it's not the case here. it will be above zero over southern HB and everything what you already said +1
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 20, 2018, 12:27:22 AM
I am sure Hudson Bay will freeze up quickly over the next few days,By Friday /Saturday extreme cold will have lessened greatly in much of Central Canada including south of Foxe Basin. This could slow freezing of the southern half  of Hudson Bay considerably.

my thoughts exactly hence sorry to share your property [Just Kidding]

in such cases it's at times good to look at temps instead of anomalies because anomalies of +20C in winter can mean -20C still cold enough for a full freeze but it's not the case here. it will be above zero over southern HB and everything what you already said +1
That is a 213 hour forecast map and the GFS has had a very warm bias over Hudson Bay in recent months. It does not have dynamic ice-atmospheric coupling so it remains with the starting ice #s for the duration of its run (that is to say, it still has 00z hr ice coverage by D10 in Hudson Bay, when that is most definitely inaccurate and likely wildly so).
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 20, 2018, 11:58:03 AM
Or post them every 5-10 days.
It's highly likely. Changes in the central Arctic will be minimal but the Barents Sea and, possible, the Bering Strait still could be interesting in winter.
The Atlantic ice front and the Fram Strait are also quite interesting. :)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 20, 2018, 07:19:35 PM
The freezing season is very strong of late. After falling to lowest ever 2018 is now in 11th place, exceeding every year since 2006 in ice extent except 2008 and 2014. Can’t be sure what’s driving this since temps in arctic are not below average.
Quick from the hip theory - less imported humidity from lower latitudes, thus less to impede outbound longwave radiation, *and* lower humidity would permit greater evaporation, which is a very local energy transfer directly from the water surface that would drop sea surface temperatures even with "warmer" atmosphere.

Here is the thing  though - relating to discussion on the area/extent thread - that exchange halts the moment the ice forms, and we change the primary transfer mechanism from primarily convective to primarily conductive.  The "R" value of ice is surprisingly high, and permits snow accumulation, which makes prospects worse for heat loss.

Collapse repeat something else I've said...  I think we are on the cusp of major deep system changes.  As we reach and start breaking the system symmetry, its overallbehavior will become more volatile, especially considering the huge increases in total energy available (see: pentajoule-scale increases in total oceanic enthalpy).

In short, the rapid ice return is not reassuring.  I may we rethink that if it happens 5 years running, but I don't think ill get that chance.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 20, 2018, 08:25:08 PM

That is a 213 hour forecast map

No it was not. More like 120 hrs in the future (from yesterday).

And here is a GFS map for Saturday Nov 24 - about 100 hrs from now. A blip in Hudson Bay freezing is possible. It also suggests some reduction in the extreme cold in NE Canada in the days after.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 20, 2018, 08:26:12 PM

That is a 213 hour forecast map

No it was not. More like 120 hrs in the future (from yesterday).

And here is a GFS map for Saturday Nov 24 - about 100 hrs from now. A blip in Hudson Bay freezing is possible. It also suggests some reduction in the extreme cold in NE Canada in the days after.
It was 213 hours, it says so on the upper top, initialized 11/19 and forecast date: 11/28...

Literally pasting this here because I'm not wrong / it's ironic to see the people screaming about posts D5+ posting spot output for a certain hour with a model that has known biases that make it completely unreliable by that point for that specific region.

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 20, 2018, 08:29:08 PM

That is a 213 hour forecast map

No it was not. More like 120 hrs in the future (from yesterday).

And here is a GFS map for Saturday Nov 24 - about 100 hrs from now. A blip in Hudson Bay freezing is possible. It also suggests some reduction in the extreme cold in NE Canada in the days after.
It was 213 hours, it says so on the upper top, initialized 11/19 and forecast date: 11/28...

Literally pasting this here because I'm not wrong / it's ironic to see the people screaming about posts D5+ posting spot output for a certain hour with a model that has known biases that make it completely unreliable by that point for that specific region.
My map was not. One, I suppose, should be entirely specific to avoid such disputes.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Brigantine on November 20, 2018, 10:40:21 PM
The garlic press is now closed, according to the Russians (http://www.aari.ru/resources/d0015/arctic/gif.en/2018/20181120.gif). (but if Canada disagrees tomorrow, I'll follow them)

Svaalbard must be an eerie place at the moment - No light, (sun 6*+ below the horizon at all times) but at the same time no ice.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 20, 2018, 11:41:05 PM
Agreed. It looks like there is only movement in the Nares now.
Here is a comparison of 2017 and 2018, using amsr2-uhh, from oct1 to nov19. 2017 is outlined in green.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on November 21, 2018, 07:24:36 AM
In regards to the well-known trend of increased relative cold and snow in the subarctic/midlatitudes, let's clear up the oh-my-god-look-at-the-upcoming-glaciation misnomer and put this trend back into perspective. This trend has been ongoing since 1990 as discussed via WACC and its surmised drivers, e.g. Arctic Amplification, sea ice loss and greater flux or disruption in the AO, polar vortex and jet stream. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/lantao.sun/publications/2016_SPH_GRL.pdf (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/lantao.sun/publications/2016_SPH_GRL.pdf)

Quote
The results of this study lead to an important conclusion. The true forced pattern of NH temperature change since 1990—given the trajectory of observed sea ice loss, SST variations, and overall radiative forcing—is characterized as “Warm Arctic, Warm Continents”. In consequence, the observed 24 year trend pattern of winter temperatures since 1990 should not be interpreted as expressing a sustainable trajectory of climate. Rather, the so-called “Warm Arctic, Cold Continents” regime is transient and is becoming increasing unlikely as climate continues to warm.

The perspective that jdallen has regarding all this seems most spot on to me. That being we are amidst a kind of interim chaotic state change where wild fluctuations represent an ongoing drastic shift in our climate and arctic sea ice formation. (hope i paraphrased JD correctly?) My concern and inquiry, with the relative increased continental cold and corresponding decreased atmospheric pressures, is to what degree does WACC create its own positive feedback loop - especially related to the increased cold/decreased pressures that builds in Siberia? Seems like Cohen might be on to something there.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 21, 2018, 08:10:40 AM
November 16-20.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: RikW on November 21, 2018, 09:18:22 AM
Quote from another topic:

To put current events a bit in perspective: The last time the daily JAXA arctic sea ice extent did not rank in the top 11 was 25th April 2012. Since then, every single day was in the lowest 11 at the time - until yesterday.

That's a great signal for the ice. But on the other hand, we all know what happened the months after the last time it was this "high" in 2012.

Perfect preconditioning for a disastrous melt season?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on November 21, 2018, 10:53:48 AM
I believe that temperatures tell us the real story about the state of the Arctic. Attached is the November to October (12 months) average temperature 70N-90N (ie, the last data plot is the average temp from 2017 Nov to 2018 Oct). Nothing to cheer at, things are actually worse than 2012 or 2007:
 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Rodius on November 21, 2018, 11:29:25 AM
I believe that temperatures tell us the real story about the state of the Arctic. Attached is the November to October (12 months) average temperature 70N-90N (ie, the last data plot is the average temp from 2017 Nov to 2018 Oct). Nothing to cheer at, things are actually worse than 2012 or 2007:

It seems a paradox to be getting warmer while the freeze is so fast.
I really have no idea, but is it something to to do with the melting water being fresh and on the surface? Fresh water freezing "better" than saline water?
If there is extra fresh water on top, it freezes fast, leaving saline water underneath potentially holding more heat. Is that a correct line of thinking on a basic level?

If so, is the ice more likely to be thinner and weaker?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on November 21, 2018, 11:39:56 AM
Looking at the regional charts (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional), two things stand out:

1) Refreeze in the Central Arctic Basin started very late but vas extremely fast once it began.

2) Only a very few seas are or have been "ahead" of the curve (2012 - 2017): CAA (fully frozen over by now), Beaufort Sea (ditto), Baffin/Newfoundland Bay and Hudson Bay (finally!)

Admittedly the regional charts only show back to 2012, but judging from them the very rapid refreeze has been mostly the Central Arctic catching up (which it hasn't quite managed yet) and the current "surplus" pushing 2018 into 11th place is to be found in Baffin/Newfoundland, Hudson  and (until now) Beaufort.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on November 21, 2018, 11:50:32 AM
Note that the "high fliers" are all on the Canadian side, in bbr's "reglaciation" area.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: NeilT on November 21, 2018, 01:07:38 PM
It seems a paradox to be getting warmer while the freeze is so fast.

So is the Mpemba effect (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mpemba_effect).

There is no end of study into how mixing affects melt and upwelling of warm water.  I doubt that there has been very large amount of study into the re-freeze in the same way, but I could be wrong.

One of the studies to try and understand the Mpemba effect shows that suddenly stirring very cold water can cause flash freezing.  We know that the pack protects the water from the worst effects of storms.  What we don't know is how weather is affecting water sitting at -1.8c and giving up its heat before freezing.

I'm sure this will be studied in time but, today, we're in fairly uncharted territory.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 21, 2018, 01:28:07 PM
I think FOoW mentioned something about storms and ocean heat loss in winter.

2018 catching up with (and overtaking) 2017.
amsr2-uhh, oct21 and nov11 for the two years, 2018 on the left.
oct21:  Beaufort freezing earlier. Laptev/Kara and CAA later
nov11: Beaufort freezing earlier, ESS earlier, Baffin earlier.

There has been a lot of attention on CAA, Baffin and Hudson, but noting the export into the CAA and probable increased meltwater in the Baffin to assist quicker refreeze, the accelerated freeze in the Hudson may just be weather rather than a shift in climate.

edit in italics
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on November 21, 2018, 03:11:31 PM
Agreed. It looks like there is only movement in the Nares now.
Here is a comparison of 2017 and 2018, using amsr2-uhh, from oct1 to nov19. 2017 is outlined in green.

This animation is very, very nice. I wish I could 'like' it twice.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Phil. on November 21, 2018, 03:37:34 PM
(pentajoule-scale increases in total oceanic enthalpy)

Should be petajoule
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Juan C. García on November 21, 2018, 03:46:53 PM
Agreed. It looks like there is only movement in the Nares now.
Here is a comparison of 2017 and 2018, using amsr2-uhh, from oct1 to nov19. 2017 is outlined in green.

This animation is very, very nice. I wish I could 'like' it twice.


+1   (+2 is not possible)  ;)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 21, 2018, 04:43:13 PM
In regards to the well-known trend of increased relative cold and snow in the subarctic/midlatitudes, let's clear up the oh-my-god-look-at-the-upcoming-glaciation misnomer and put this trend back into perspective. This trend has been ongoing since 1990 as discussed via WACC and its surmised drivers, e.g. Arctic Amplification, sea ice loss and greater flux or disruption in the AO, polar vortex and jet stream. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/lantao.sun/publications/2016_SPH_GRL.pdf (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/lantao.sun/publications/2016_SPH_GRL.pdf)

Quote
The results of this study lead to an important conclusion. The true forced pattern of NH temperature change since 1990—given the trajectory of observed sea ice loss, SST variations, and overall radiative forcing—is characterized as “Warm Arctic, Warm Continents”. In consequence, the observed 24 year trend pattern of winter temperatures since 1990 should not be interpreted as expressing a sustainable trajectory of climate. Rather, the so-called “Warm Arctic, Cold Continents” regime is transient and is becoming increasing unlikely as climate continues to warm.

The perspective that jdallen has regarding all this seems most spot on to me. That being we are amidst a kind of interim chaotic state change where wild fluctuations represent an ongoing drastic shift in our climate and arctic sea ice formation. (hope i paraphrased JD correctly?) My concern and inquiry, with the relative increased continental cold and corresponding decreased atmospheric pressures, is to what degree does WACC create its own positive feedback loop - especially related to the increased cold/decreased pressures that builds in Siberia? Seems like Cohen might be on to something there.
The trend towards warm arctic cold continents began in 2012. It has accelerated since. Throwing random research and data points instead of reading everything that has been written since is fine. But adding that tidbit re: Cohen is absurd -- he is not onto anything, "SAI" is nonsense, it is simply the same feedback that has always existed that has kicked into higher gear since 2012. Hansen has knowledge, Cohen only produces nonsense acronyms.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 21, 2018, 04:46:36 PM
PS where is that random new person who screamed at me and hurled insults when I said the models showed severe mid-November cold across North America? LOL.

I just don't see it in the forecast.  To me it looks like the PV at any level is displaced, and the timing is coincident with the influence of an extratropical cyclone entering the arctic.  As the GFS outlook has evolved, the PV moves away from the north pole toward Svalbard and Siberia, but quickly recovers around Nov 15

I wouldn't predict necessarily but it seems to indicate milder weather mid-month for the Eastern US and Canada.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on November 21, 2018, 05:20:38 PM
Quote
The trend towards warm arctic cold continents began in 2012
Did you even read the article i posted?  It defines WACC beginning in 1990 and shows actual data that clearly backs up the trend.

Quote
But adding that tidbit re: Cohen is absurd -- he is not onto anything, "SAI" is nonsense, it is simply the same feedback that has always existed that has kicked into higher gear since 2012.
What?  This is exactly what i'm referring to about WACC having a positive feedback, i.e. accelerating itself and making it even more of a climatological flash in the pan - so to speak. What is your point and where is your science and data?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 21, 2018, 07:24:34 PM
It's been a few days. Thought I would review the freeze progress for Hudson Bay. Rapid freezing continues but it looks like it may be a few more days before the freeze is "mostly done".
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 21, 2018, 08:11:59 PM
BBR,
If I understand your November 13 prediction (#685 in this thread (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg180878.html#msg180878)), Hudson Bay (HB) is going to have 75% ice coverage by 11/15 (plus 6 days, because we are among friends) using NATICE.  I found a few references to "NATICE" in this thread, but no links.  Can you provide one, so that we can connect your prediction with the reference you specified?  Today is the day, but tomorrow (or the next day, I presume) will show today's extent.  (The ASIG-regional (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional) [a different calibration, for sure], as SH posted, shows for HB less than 50% extent as of yesterday.)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 21, 2018, 08:38:50 PM
BBR,
If I understand your November 13 prediction (#685 in this thread (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg180878.html#msg180878)), Hudson Bay (HB) is going to have 75% ice coverage by 11/15 (plus 6 days, because we are among friends) using NATICE.  I found a few references to "NATICE" in this thread, but no links.  Can you provide one, so that we can connect your prediction with the reference you specified?  Today is the day, but tomorrow (or the next day, I presume) will show today's extent.  (The ASIG-regional (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional) [a different calibration, for sure], as SH posted, shows for HB less than 50% extent as of yesterday.)

As at 20 Nov -
NSIDC Area circa 25% of max,
NSIDC extent circa 50% of max

and that's all I'm going to say about that
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 21, 2018, 08:57:52 PM
Worldview, north of Svalbard, brightness temperature, band15,night, nov20-21.
The lower concentration ice near to the eddy (circled) still clearly visible over recent days. They look like goodbye waves and cloud streets along the ice front. Large floes on the ice edge ~-28C.

For those who missed it first time round, some cloud street info from A-Team

"cloud streets" in the Barents (associated with cold winds of a meandering central anti-cyclonic high) will continue out to March 25th and beyond, per GFS.

Twitter can confuse these with with blowing Antarctic ice needles or katabatic Greenland winds but Zach notes correctly today these are parallel bands of cumulus clouds that form as cold winds from the north blow off the ice edge onto warmer ocean waters.

OK, but why now, why cumulus mediocris, and what causes the street banding? 

The temperature differential between cold air blowing off the ice and the sea surface water, either open leads or more commonly beyond the ice edge, can easily exceed 20ºC in March. Thermal columns of moist heated air rise off the sea surface until they hit a denser warmer lid of air (provided a temperature inversion is present).

As the thermals are advected downwind and sink or rise according to ambient density differences, they form parallel pairs of counter-rotating cylinders of air. On the upper surface of rising air, water vapor cools and condenses into flat-bottomed, fluffy-topped clouds (ie cumulus: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulus_cloud). On the downdrafts, condensates evaporate giving clear skies on the sides of the clouds, the banding.

Surprisingly, the alignment of vortices alone does not reliably indicate wind direction. Stably stratified environments have lines 30° off CCW to the left; only an unstably stratified (ie convective) situation has bands parallel to mean wind.

Cloud streets are technically called horizontal convective rolls. The most favorable conditions for them occur when the lowermost layer of air is unstable, driven by a moderate wind and capped by a stable inversion, a common situation when upper air is subsiding, such as under recently prevailing anticyclonic conditions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horizontal_convective_rolls turbulent momentum flux in PBL
<snip>

Tech note: brightness/contrast adjusted and clahe applied to the worldview images
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 21, 2018, 09:49:18 PM
BBR,
If I understand your November 13 prediction (#685 in this thread (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg180878.html#msg180878)), Hudson Bay (HB) is going to have 75% ice coverage by 11/15 (plus 6 days, because we are among friends) using NATICE.  I found a few references to "NATICE" in this thread, but no links.  Can you provide one, so that we can connect your prediction with the reference you specified?  Today is the day, but tomorrow (or the next day, I presume) will show today's extent.  (The ASIG-regional (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional) [a different calibration, for sure], as SH posted, shows for HB less than 50% extent as of yesterday.)

As at 20 Nov -
NSIDC Area circa 25% of max,
NSIDC extent circa 50% of max

and that's all I'm going to say about that
Those are 5 day trailing averages so that is not fair.

Re: NATICE --

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 21, 2018, 11:01:21 PM
(pentajoule-scale increases in total oceanic enthalpy)

Should be petajoule
Thank you for the correction.  I plead haste and fatigue.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 22, 2018, 12:36:46 AM
Very long leads across the CAB recently, best seen from nov14-16 on worldview bt15n.
https://tinyurl.com/ybynxmdl
A large catchment area for Fram Strait export as well
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 22, 2018, 02:09:22 AM
Thanks BBR.
NATICE for today.  Is HB 75% covered?  I don't think so, but I don't have a pixel counter.
NOAA's NATICE (https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 22, 2018, 03:22:12 AM
Thanks BBR.
NATICE for today.  Is HB 75% covered?  I don't think so, but I don't have a pixel counter.
NOAA's NATICE (https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif)
Big jump today! Maybe it'll get there tomorrow or the next day but doesn't look like 75% just yet. Alas!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on November 22, 2018, 04:00:52 AM
bbr as far as I can tell NATICE provides ice extent (the website itself cannot be entered due to a nagging security warning). So seeing it all in white does not mean "the Hudson refreeze should be mostly complete" by 11/15, or by any other date. The criterion should be area, IMHO.
Hudson refreeze is currently running about one week early than most recent years, as can easily be seen in almost any chart. Up until mid-November it followed in the footsteps of other years, and only recently it broke out. I don't think this behavior fits the level of confidence embedded in the extreme predictions you have been making since mid-October. Things are not so out of whack as you think. Weather is variable, this year is colder than usual in that region. It does not prove or disprove anything long-term.
Case in point, two years ago HB refreeze was two weeks later than usual, as can easily be seen in the same chart.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 22, 2018, 01:26:13 PM
A closer look at the Atlantic ice front north west of FJL shows quite agressive melting over the last few days.
Worldview, bt15n, nov20-22.

I hadn't seen natice before. A comparison of natice with amsr2-uhh, nov21
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 22, 2018, 02:57:00 PM
Based on these two images, there is no question that NATICE provides a more optimistic visual for the health of the ice. SIA is the way to go if we are to accurately assess when HB is 75% covered.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 22, 2018, 04:15:49 PM
amsr2-uhh hasn't picked up thin ice in the Davis Strait though.  https://tinyurl.com/ydf7b4er
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on November 23, 2018, 12:51:22 AM
Persistent winds from between north and east, have shaved 3 C off the Chukchi SSTs in the past three weeks. The Bering has dropped a little more slowly ~ 2 C.

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 23, 2018, 05:04:46 PM
Persistent winds from between north and east, have shaved 3 C off the Chukchi SSTs in the past three weeks. The Bering has dropped a little more slowly ~ 2 C.
Yes, the arrival of second year ice from the Beaufort should help it freeze over (hopefully not just melt. edit: iirc quite a few MYI floes met their end in the Chukchi around this time last year. edit2:no, it was april this year)
jaxa rgb, oct1-nov22, every 2days (to reduce file size 3.7MB)

ESRL is forecasting Chukchi largely frozen in 7 days.
(Dryland's ESRL data - https://floe.keytwist.net/esrl-daily-forecasts/2018-11-22 )

edit: Not looking too promising at the moment but things have been changing very quickly recently.
amsr2-uhh large, chukchi, nov14-22
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on November 23, 2018, 06:52:50 PM
Quote
ESRL is forecasting Chukchi largely frozen in 7 days.

Let's hope that forecast comes through.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on November 23, 2018, 06:57:46 PM
...... the 2016-2018 sea ice extent gap ripped open further, now to almost 1.5 million square kilometers. Most of the sea ice gap ripping was due to the present High Arctic & Arctic atmospheric chilling, funneling from Canada. However, the extreme to-date 2016 anomalous heating also caused sea ice extent LOSS, contributing to the wild splaying 2016-2018 sea ice extent separation. Should be more 2016-2018 sea ice extent widening coming.
The last fews days have placed the first (& largest) to-date 2016 sea ice extent LOSS in this general time of sea ice extent gain, graphically in the past. 2018 sea ice extent gain is presently paralleling the 2016 sea ice extent gain, but 1.5+ million square kilometers greater. Present High Arctic temperature is somewhat lower than the same period 2016 High Arctic temperature, possibly helping to maintain the 2016-2018 Arctic sea ice gap.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 23, 2018, 07:50:24 PM
Quote
ESRL is forecasting Chukchi largely frozen in 7 days.

Let's hope that forecast comes through.
Yes, though looking at sea ice area it's only CAFS forecasting that. GFS is much less optimistic.
edit: Sorry, I've just looked through the last week of forecasts (thanks Dryland) and they are all over-optimistic for Chukchi. Let's not get our hopes up too much.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 24, 2018, 07:35:29 AM
November 18-23.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 24, 2018, 12:29:00 PM
Quite choppy in the Chukchi. ECMWF WAM forecasting implying some freezing over the next 10 days.
windy, nov24-dec3
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on November 25, 2018, 11:55:55 AM
Nice Suomi NPP image posted by Rick Thoman for 7am AK time on Nov 24, shows the recent cold temperatures (in F) on the north slope. Umiat down to -37.

The ice moving across the Chukchi, comprised of big lumps embedded in the thinner ice. Presume some of the older ice from the Beaufort is spreading across and breaking up. So a bit of a battle for maybe two weeks yet, if this weather pattern continues.

Edit: Just had a look at the ECMWF forecast for the next 10 days and it suggests a change as we enter December. The Arctic high slips away over to the Barents and depressions in the sea of Okhotsk drift northeast in through the Bering Strait bringing warm southerlies ahead of it over the Chukchi. Expect a stall in the freezing by then.   
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 25, 2018, 03:52:21 PM
A comparison of Chukchi ice extent from 2015-2018, nov1-24 using amsr2-uhh.
The main ice edge for each year from 2015-2017 has been extracted using edge detect in imagej, then splitting the colour channels to remove some of the concentration data, so it should be seen only as a rough comparison.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 25, 2018, 09:47:45 PM
Very nicely done, Uniquorn.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 26, 2018, 01:43:03 PM
Thicker ice rotating into open water.
jaxa rgb and worldview brightness temperature band15, nov20-25 (atlantic side)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 27, 2018, 06:42:53 AM
November 21-26.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 27, 2018, 05:33:07 PM
Thanks BBR.
NATICE for today.  Is HB 75% covered?  I don't think so, but I don't have a pixel counter.
NOAA's NATICE (https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif)
Big jump today! Maybe it'll get there tomorrow or the next day but doesn't look like 75% just yet. Alas!
Alas, indeed.

Warmth did reach the southern half of Hudson Bay - above zero.
Area gain has slowed somewhat.

Below freezing will return, but perhaps not that intense cold as before.


 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 27, 2018, 06:43:05 PM
Thanks BBR.
NATICE for today.  Is HB 75% covered?  I don't think so, but I don't have a pixel counter.
NOAA's NATICE (https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif)
Big jump today! Maybe it'll get there tomorrow or the next day but doesn't look like 75% just yet. Alas!
Alas, indeed.

Warmth did reach the southern half of Hudson Bay - above zero.
Area gain has slowed somewhat.

Below freezing will return, but perhaps not that intense cold as before.
IDK about that, modeling has the tropospheric PV rotating back into HB by D7-8 or so... this frame is D10 but the progression is well underway before then.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018112712/fv3p_z500_mslp_nhem_41.png)

00z EURO D8

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018112700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_nhem_9.png)

So HB should wrap around then, and Baffin should regain momentum once more, as the high Arctic is left / remains in its worst-ever conditions. I anticipate a continuation of the "leveling" of gains and would bet 2018 falls back into the bottom three rankings by 1/1.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 27, 2018, 08:55:43 PM
There is - what is, and
there is - what may be.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 27, 2018, 09:19:42 PM
There is - what is, and
there is - what may be.
Indeed, and then, there is - what may likely be.

GFS, CMC, EURO all show same thing.  ;)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 28, 2018, 12:20:39 AM
There is - what is, and
there is - what may be.
Indeed, and then, there is - what may likely be.

GFS, CMC, EURO all show same thing.  ;)
Still way to far out.  There were lots of forecasts last fall that suggested all kinds of dire stuff - worse for ice creation than 2016 - but which moderated dramatically when we got closer to the 4 day window.  What you are seeing at day 8 is still so general and has such high probability of error that it has little utility beyond tweaking our curiosity.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 28, 2018, 01:10:51 AM
There is - what is, and
there is - what may be.
Indeed, and then, there is - what may likely be.

GFS, CMC, EURO all show same thing.  ;)
Still way to far out.  There were lots of forecasts last fall that suggested all kinds of dire stuff - worse for ice creation than 2016 - but which moderated dramatically when we got closer to the 4 day window.  What you are seeing at day 8 is still so general and has such high probability of error that it has little utility beyond tweaking our curiosity.
All ensembles are also in agreement. This is partially due to the recurving WPAC storm / typhoon which becomes a major low near AK. I think this leads to a higher probability forecast vs. normal. But if I am wrong, feel free to throw this in my face come D8 (I will post verification then, myself!).
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 28, 2018, 02:07:26 AM

Warmth did reach the southern half of Hudson Bay - above zero.
Area gain has slowed somewhat.

Below freezing will return, but perhaps not that intense cold as before.

Only half of Hudson Bay is actually covered with ice? Where does the 75% come in?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on November 28, 2018, 04:00:05 AM
Finally, a marked departure of FDDs from 2016/2017. Hopefully this means volume is growing above or at least near average.

Regarding HB 75% by 11/15, the claim was baseless to begin with. Reality just took its time.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on November 28, 2018, 05:58:12 AM
Well it seems that the first of my two predictions has come true - not only a stall, but an actual fall in extent in Hudson Bay, and only about 2/3 of Hudson Bay (according ot JAXA) or less than 1/5 (according to NSIDC) covered. When refreeze does kick in again it will be back to normal for the last 6 years.

So I award myself 1 point for this, but I'm willing to concede 1/3 of a point to the other guy for pointing out that "something" was happening in HB - even if he was way out on both the magnitude and the timing.

Now I'm waiting in nail-biting tension re. my second prediction (max 2019 to set a new minimax).
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 28, 2018, 06:51:36 AM
There is - what is, and
there is - what may be.
Indeed, and then, there is - what may likely be.

GFS, CMC, EURO all show same thing.  ;)
Still way to far out.  There were lots of forecasts last fall that suggested all kinds of dire stuff - worse for ice creation than 2016 - but which moderated dramatically when we got closer to the 4 day window.  What you are seeing at day 8 is still so general and has such high probability of error that it has little utility beyond tweaking our curiosity.
All ensembles are also in agreement. This is partially due to the recurving WPAC storm / typhoon which becomes a major low near AK. I think this leads to a higher probability forecast vs. normal. But if I am wrong, feel free to throw this in my face come D8 (I will post verification then, myself!).
What you are doing is effectively rolling dice.  Like in craps, you eventually might make your point, but the advantage remains with the house. Like in craps, the success of your predictions when they happen are overwhelmingly luck rather than skill.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 28, 2018, 08:19:18 AM
There is - what is, and
there is - what may be.
Indeed, and then, there is - what may likely be.

GFS, CMC, EURO all show same thing.  ;)
Still way to far out.  There were lots of forecasts last fall that suggested all kinds of dire stuff - worse for ice creation than 2016 - but which moderated dramatically when we got closer to the 4 day window.  What you are seeing at day 8 is still so general and has such high probability of error that it has little utility beyond tweaking our curiosity.
All ensembles are also in agreement. This is partially due to the recurving WPAC storm / typhoon which becomes a major low near AK. I think this leads to a higher probability forecast vs. normal. But if I am wrong, feel free to throw this in my face come D8 (I will post verification then, myself!).
What you are doing is effectively rolling dice.  Like in craps, you eventually might make your point, but the advantage remains with the house. Like in craps, the success of your predictions when they happen are overwhelmingly luck rather than skill.
So you don't believe in forecast models? OK.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Wherestheice on November 28, 2018, 08:36:37 AM
There is - what is, and
there is - what may be.
Indeed, and then, there is - what may likely be.

GFS, CMC, EURO all show same thing.  ;)
Still way to far out.  There were lots of forecasts last fall that suggested all kinds of dire stuff - worse for ice creation than 2016 - but which moderated dramatically when we got closer to the 4 day window.  What you are seeing at day 8 is still so general and has such high probability of error that it has little utility beyond tweaking our curiosity.
All ensembles are also in agreement. This is partially due to the recurving WPAC storm / typhoon which becomes a major low near AK. I think this leads to a higher probability forecast vs. normal. But if I am wrong, feel free to throw this in my face come D8 (I will post verification then, myself!).
What you are doing is effectively rolling dice.  Like in craps, you eventually might make your point, but the advantage remains with the house. Like in craps, the success of your predictions when they happen are overwhelmingly luck rather than skill.
So you don't believe in forecast models? OK.

I believe it is the longer term models he doesn’t have faith in. Anything over 4 days. It is true. Weather is very unpredictable and with our current technology and understanding, anything beyond 4 or 5 days should be taken with a grain of salt. Considered, yes, but not taken very seriously
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on November 28, 2018, 11:07:59 AM
Is it actually possible to believe in forecast models? I guess you could have various degrees of faith in them - I've just experimented on the Tropicaltidbits site, going back and forth between days and models to find something that shows what I like - but having seen how wildly different these images can be, from day to day and model to model, I must admit that my faith in the forecast models have taken some battering.

Anyway, look at all that wonderful heat anomaly in 4 days time, the Arcic is scorching and HB is positively balmy, at least judging from this lovely image. Of course, it's still going to be bloody cold up there, temps well below freezing and all that  ...
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: colchonero on November 28, 2018, 12:02:45 PM
Yeah, I agree forecasts can be very different from model to model, however that 4d out forecast (I looked at it) seems to be quite odd. Idk what model that is, (GEPS), but when you look at its' 500mb map it's more or less in line with others, but when you switch to 2m anomaly it doesn't make much sense for CAB, at least to me. There are 2 HP, 1 over CAB, another one over Greenland, no ridges and no strong southerlies. Isobars aren't tight either over CAB, so there is no big gradient.

But maybe I'm missing something. Either way, we're approaching double digits (100h-) so it is strange to see a model forecast that vastly differs (in temp anomaly, not 500mb) from ECMWF and GFS' forecasts.  Like I've said, Idk the model and I don't know how usual this is, it just attracted my attention.

GFS
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018112806/gfs_T2ma_nhem_18.png)
ECMWF temp 850 (they don't provide 2m anomaly on this site, but 500mb and temp 850hPa are almost the same as GFS over CAB there is some disagreement elsewhere, but I'm not going to analyze whole N-Hemi ;))

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018112800/ecmwf_T850a_nhem_5.png)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 28, 2018, 03:32:29 PM
Yeah, those last two models are in general agreement, except for the CAB.  Whereas the first shows an extreme warm anomaly, the other shows very little (the areas of warm and cold anomaly almost cancel). 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on November 28, 2018, 05:56:22 PM
Forgive me for the long post, i know this thread is not the place for it but i think it might be helpful to put all the weather discussion into context.

Since WACC began in 1990 the overall heating of the northern hemisphere has been no less than shocking.
https://youtu.be/HTV-yUssz9o
The cold in the continents is primarily in winter and overwhelmingly a Eurasian phenomena.
(https://i.imgur.com/spnm2X2.png)

For source see: http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/events/wg-meetings/2016/presentations/cvcwg/lsun.pdf (http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/events/wg-meetings/2016/presentations/cvcwg/lsun.pdf)

Given the shocking overall heating trend this means that the seasonal temperature swings are extraordinary. Is this causing a trend of late refreeze and the subsequent rapid spikes in freezing?

Zack is working on a new research paper right now, however he mentioned afterwards that he could create a plot(s) that would help us visualize the seasonal and spatial nature of the temperature trend in question.

With all the heat in our climate regime (especially the oceans) it's a bit ludicrous how deniers get all excited about how arctic blasts are indicative of some cooling trend in America, etc. All i can say is if you live by the cold of jet stream perturbations then you will die by the flip side of those same perturbations as the extra heat in the system comes back to whack you with a dose of reality. Macro thermodynamics will always have the final say.

In the same regard on a seasonal scale, any increase in snow accumulation serves to trap an inordinate amount of heat in the land, instead of letting it escape into space. There are profound near-term negative effects of this particularly as it relates to the permafrost and related positive GHG feedbacks as given in this recent excellent article:  https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/08/news-arctic-permafrost-may-thaw-faster-than-expected/

Even though during the freezing season, the trapping of that heat may help to offset the overall climate warming trend, in the end doesn't it only serves to seal our doom (pun intended) because there is less days of the year for that heat to make it out to space, especially with all the extra carbon in the atmosphere?

Just like all the heat building in our oceans, the land heat building under the snow will make it's way to melting the ice - powerfully overriding any signal of seasonal temperature fluctuations or snow accumulation.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 28, 2018, 06:12:19 PM
Forgive me for the long post, i know this thread is not the place for it but i think it might be helpful to put all the weather discussion into context.

Since WACC began in 1990 the overall heating of the northern hemisphere has been no less than shocking.
https://youtu.be/HTV-yUssz9o
The cold in the continents is primarily in winter and overwhelmingly a Eurasian phenomena.
(https://i.imgur.com/spnm2X2.png)

For source see: http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/events/wg-meetings/2016/presentations/cvcwg/lsun.pdf (http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/events/wg-meetings/2016/presentations/cvcwg/lsun.pdf)

Given the shocking overall heating trend this means that the seasonal temperature swings are extraordinary. Is this causing a trend of late refreeze and the subsequent rapid spikes in freezing?

Zack is working on a new research paper right now, however he mentioned afterwards that he could create a plot(s) that would help us visualize the seasonal and spatial nature of the temperature trend in question.

With all the heat in our climate regime (especially the oceans) it's a bit ludicrous how deniers get all excited about how arctic blasts are indicative of some cooling trend in America, etc. All i can say is if you live by the cold of jet stream perturbations then you will die by the flip side of those same perturbations as the extra heat in the system comes back to whack you with a dose of reality. Macro thermodynamics will always have the final say.

In the same regard on a seasonal scale, any increase in snow accumulation serves to trap an inordinate amount of heat in the land, instead of letting it escape into space. There are profound near-term negative effects of this particularly as it relates to the permafrost and related positive GHG feedbacks as given in this recent excellent article:  https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/08/news-arctic-permafrost-may-thaw-faster-than-expected/

Even though during the freezing season, the trapping of that heat may help to offset the overall climate warming trend, in the end doesn't it only serves to seal our doom (pun intended) because there is less days of the year for that heat to make it out to space, especially with all the extra carbon in the atmosphere?

Just like all the heat building in our oceans, the land heat building under the snow will make it's way to melting the ice - powerfully overriding any signal of seasonal temperature fluctuations or snow accumulation.
"the land heat building under the snow"... outside of melting permafrost, you know this isn't a thing, right? Oceans accumulate heat, land does not, otherwise the tropics would always scorch.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 28, 2018, 06:48:06 PM
How about this article?

Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate
change in Canada
(https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2010JD015012)
[authors listed]; published 21 January 2011.
Quote
[1] Trends in soil temperature are important, but rarely reported, indicators of climate
change. On the basis of the soil temperature data from 30 climate stations across
Canada during 1958–2008, trends in soil temperatures at 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 150 cm
depths were analyzed, together with atmospheric variables, such as air temperature,
precipitation, and depth of snow on the ground, observed at the same locations. There was
a significant positive trend with soil temperatures in spring and summer means, but not
for the winter and annual means. A positive trend with time in soil temperature was
detected at about two‐thirds of the stations at all depths below 5 cm. A warming trend of
0.26–0.30°C/decade was consistently detected in spring (March–April–May) at all depths
between 1958 and 2008. The warming trend in soil temperatures was associated with
trends in air temperatures and snow cover depth over the same period. A significant
decreasing trend in snow cover depth in winter and spring was associated with increasing
air temperatures. The combined effects of the higher air temperature and reduced snow
depth probably resulted in an enhanced increasing trend in spring soil temperatures, but no
significant trends in winter soil temperatures. The thermal insulation by snow cover
appeared to play an important role in the response of soil temperatures to climate change
and must be accounted for in projecting future soil‐related impacts of climate change.

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on November 28, 2018, 07:02:59 PM
"the land heat building under the snow"... outside of melting permafrost, you know this isn't a thing, right? Oceans accumulate heat, land does not, otherwise the tropics would always scorch.
I never said it was accumulating heat, i said it was not allowing the heat to escape into space - hence increase net enthalpy.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on November 28, 2018, 07:13:55 PM
How about this article?
Thanks Tor. The scientists in the more recent article i posted above point to a stronger relationship between snow cover and winter soil temps:

Quote
But in a region where temperatures can dip to 40 degrees below zero Fahrenheit, the Zimovs say unusually high snowfall this year worked like a blanket, trapping excess heat in the ground. They found sections 30 inches deep—soils that typically freeze before Christmas—that had stayed damp and mushy all winter. For the first time in memory, ground that insulates deep Arctic permafrost simply did not freeze in winter.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/08/news-arctic-permafrost-may-thaw-faster-than-expected/ (https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/08/news-arctic-permafrost-may-thaw-faster-than-expected/)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on November 28, 2018, 08:20:51 PM
What you are doing is effectively rolling dice.  Like in craps, ....

only that it's much easier to look the other way hence craps is much less annoying, this is not happening due to convictions but either a profiling neurosis or the urge to go against for the sake "to speak against" as a principle, exactly like the donald. may be it's him ;) being bored of twitter.

at the end it's like if someone is permanently late, the kind of excuse does not matter anymore and is not interesting to hear anymore, not as long as all other make it to be on time.

in this context it means that if BBR makes a prediction, independent on the facts, it's least likely to become  true. this is an anti "bias" so to say, or pre-justice, but totally understandable.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 28, 2018, 08:23:17 PM
How about this article?

Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate
change in Canada
(https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2010JD015012)
[authors listed]; published 21 January 2011.
Quote
[1] Trends in soil temperature are important, but rarely reported, indicators of climate
change. On the basis of the soil temperature data from 30 climate stations across
Canada during 1958–2008, trends in soil temperatures at 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 150 cm
depths were analyzed, together with atmospheric variables, such as air temperature,
precipitation, and depth of snow on the ground, observed at the same locations. There was
a significant positive trend with soil temperatures in spring and summer means, but not
for the winter and annual means. A positive trend with time in soil temperature was
detected at about two‐thirds of the stations at all depths below 5 cm. A warming trend of
0.26–0.30°C/decade was consistently detected in spring (March–April–May) at all depths
between 1958 and 2008. The warming trend in soil temperatures was associated with
trends in air temperatures and snow cover depth over the same period. A significant
decreasing trend in snow cover depth in winter and spring was associated with increasing
air temperatures. The combined effects of the higher air temperature and reduced snow
depth probably resulted in an enhanced increasing trend in spring soil temperatures, but no
significant trends in winter soil temperatures. The thermal insulation by snow cover
appeared to play an important role in the response of soil temperatures to climate change
and must be accounted for in projecting future soil‐related impacts of climate change.

There was
a significant positive trend with soil temperatures in spring and summer means, but not
for the winter and annual means.


So soil temps can be somewhat important for a short timespan but they do not accumulate heat year over year unless permafrost is melting.

Also: magnamentis, idk what your bones to pick with me are, but if you don't believe in forecast models, all of which (and their ensembles) now show severe cold once again in NCanada, IDK what to tell you. You are the ignoramus in this instance.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 28, 2018, 08:23:26 PM
IS,
I remember (from about 1995) articles about municipal water pipes bursting 'everywhere' because there was no snow cover (deep into that winter - a first ever experience in the area) to prevent heat loss.  This was in the Adirondack Mountains and the pipes had been buried six feet down, I recall.  Water main replacement was a massive undertaking!

About 1970, we had a deep freeze in northern New Mexico (-32ºF [-35.5ºC] at its extreme).  We had six or so inches (150 mm) of snow on the ground and our fruit trees all survived.  50 miles away in Santa Fe, with no snow on the ground, they lost a lot of orchards.

Yes, snow is quite the insulator.  I hadn't thought about the 'preservation of heat' in the 'not lose it to space' sense before, though.  So thanks!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on November 28, 2018, 08:26:09 PM
Basically there is an extra layer of insulation for the heat to conduct through before it can be lost via IR to space.

Hmm - interesting. BBR - the best way to think of this is that the surface of the snow is below 0°C, losing IR to space. The ground surface is at 0°C (snow is melting at the snow- ground interface) or colder, but it is warmer than the surface of the snow.  The rate of heat loss from the ground is dependent on the thermal conductivity of the insulating snow, it's depth, and the temperature differential. More snow, less heat conducted and lost to space, more bad news for the planet.

The summer heat starts conducting down into the ground and then you get a snow fall (after insolation can no longer melt it), the heat starts to conduct both up and down from where it has reached. The snow in the winter traps the heat from insolation, but doesn't really prevent insolation. It melts very quickly in spring.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 28, 2018, 08:27:47 PM
Basically there is an extra layer of insulation for the heat to conduct through before it can be lost via IR to space.

Hmm - interesting. BBR - the best way to think of this is that the surface of the snow is below 0°C, losing IR to space. The ground surface is at 0°C (snow is melting at the snow- ground interface) or colder, but it is warmer than the surface of the snow.  The rate of heat loss from the ground is dependent on the thermal conductivity of the insulating snow, it's depth, and the temperature differential. More snow, less heat conducted and lost to space, more bad news for the planet.

The summer heat starts conducting down into the ground and then you get a snow fall (after insolation can no longer melt it), the heat starts to conduct both up and down from where it has reached. The snow in the winter traps the heat from insolation, but doesn't really prevent insolation. It melts very quickly in spring.
So the Earth is on fire already? What are you people saying? If the ground accumulates heat so readily (contrary to what the quoted paper explicitly states re: annual basis) why aren't we already like Venus? Sweet Jesus....
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on November 28, 2018, 08:32:28 PM
bbr, instead of thinking of your extra snow as heralding the next glaciation ::)  Think of it as concentrated CO2 that's seasonally trapping heat in the land - like how C02 traps heat in the air. The heat that's trapped in the land will make its way out after enough snow melts however less of that heat (how much less?) will go out to space. And yes some of that heat will help add to the longer-lasting battery known as our oceans.

Viewing your extra snow as C02 is ironic because it's also causing an accelerated release of GHGs via melting permafrost. The net result of all this judging by the vast majority of observations, clear thinking and science -> We are climatically accelerating in the opposite direction of a glaciation.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 28, 2018, 08:37:17 PM
bbr, instead of thinking of your extra snow as heralding the next glaciation ::)  Think of it as concentrated CO2 that's seasonally trapping heat in the land - like how C02 traps heat in the air. The heat that's trapped in the land will make its way out after enough snow melts however less of that heat (how much less?) will go out to space. And yes some of that heat will help add to the longer-lasting battery known as our oceans.

Viewing your extra snow as C02 is ironic because it's also causing an accelerated release of GHGs via melting permafrost. The net result of all this judging by the vast majority of observations, clear thinking and science -> We are climatically accelerating in the opposite direction of a glaciation.
OK, so you are telling me that Greenland is actually emitting heat. Thanks. You are super smart! That must also be why Greenland had the strongest mass balance gain since 1972 this year.

Is Antarctica also emitting heat? What happens when it snows there? LOL

The level of delusion on this forum is insane. I am taking a break from this thread because answering these stupid replies is itself stupid. Enjoy wallowing in whatever it is you are wallowing in.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on November 28, 2018, 08:39:37 PM
....Think of it as concentrated CO2 that's seasonally trapping heat in the land - like how C02 traps heat in the air......

I like that analogy. I bet if you had, say, 10 m of snow, the ground wouldn't drop below freezing at all. This looks like fun to model.

Also - yes the earth is hot. that's why it convects :)... but the heatflow is measured in mWatts per square meter. Not really enough to melt but a few mm of ice per year.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on November 28, 2018, 08:41:24 PM
bbr, instead of thinking of your extra snow as heralding the next glaciation ::)  Think of it as concentrated CO2 that's seasonally trapping heat in the land - like how C02 traps heat in the air. The heat that's trapped in the land will make its way out after enough snow melts however less of that heat (how much less?) will go out to space. And yes some of that heat will help add to the longer-lasting battery known as our oceans.

Viewing your extra snow as C02 is ironic because it's also causing an accelerated release of GHGs via melting permafrost. The net result of all this judging by the vast majority of observations, clear thinking and science -> We are climatically accelerating in the opposite direction of a glaciation.
OK, so you are telling me that Greenland is actually emitting heat. Thanks. You are super smart! That must also be why Greenland had the strongest mass balance gain since 1972 this year.

Is Antarctica also emitting heat? What happens when it snows there? LOL

The level of delusion on this forum is insane. I am taking a break from this thread because answering these stupid replies is itself stupid. Enjoy wallowing in whatever it is you are wallowing in.

The earth emits heat everywhere. Space is much colder than the earth; -269°C iirc. That's how we lose the heat energy from insolation. Just because 0°C seems cold to you doesn't mean its cold to the universe!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: CameraMan on November 28, 2018, 09:28:08 PM
"Greenland had the strongest mass balance gain since 1972"
Perhaps you mean "surface mass gain"?  That's quite different, since it ignores the substantial loss through calving.  Net, Greenland is losing significant mass.

And I'm sorry for continuing a somewhat off-topic.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 28, 2018, 09:41:31 PM
BBR may not be reading this now, but another story:  this time, burning hot ground.

I was on Bondi Beach (Sydney, Australia) one very hot summer day (Christmas, +/- a day or two) in 1972.  I was on the beach because a shark had been spotted and we were not allowed to even have our toes on wet sand.  The dry sand was so hot I had to dig a few inches down so that I could stand and not burn my feet.  (Most people had flip-flops that insulated them from the hot sand.)  After a few minutes, I had to dig down again.  (After a half-hour we gave up and opened the one-use-per-payment storage locker to fetch clothes and shoes and did something else.)

Unlike snow, sand is not a good insulator, so after the sun goes down, much of the accumulated heat will quickly radiate into the air (and, ultimately, space). 

As the article I referenced indicated, they did not identify an annual soil temperature drift; I suspect, however, over a longer period of time, they will identify a long term warming trend.  With Global Warming, permafrost soils will warm to be seasonally ice-free (i.e., will warm - as BBR admits); seasonally frozen soils will freeze less deeply; other soils will get slightly less cold in the winter.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on November 28, 2018, 09:55:48 PM
The permafrost in question is not soil, more ice/water than anything else. the specific heat (https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/specific-heat-capacity-d_391.html) of water is very high, it takes a lot of energy to raise it's temperature. It can accumulate energy almost to the degree the sea can and hardly warm up at all.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on November 28, 2018, 10:21:19 PM
My last post on this.

The permafrost in question is not soil, more ice/water than anything else. the specific heat (https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/specific-heat-capacity-d_391.html) of water is very high, it takes a lot of energy to raise it's temperature. It can accumulate energy almost to the degree the sea can and hardly warm up at all.
Thanks! Interesting that you post this because i was going to ask Rox about his heat flow estimates relative to moist soil and liquified permafrost.

Well it seems that the reason why our man bbr thinks glaciers are going to grow is because he isn't looking at actual data and he doesn't understand basic climatic thermodynamics. Perhaps most importantly, he is unwilling to admit it, to admit that he doesn't have any actual data to back up his claim, and that he doesn't understand basic thermodynamics.

Rather he strives to distract from his ignorance with ad hominem attacks, meaningless semantics and stereotyping. I can respect why Neven allows him to stay here for the purpose of dispelling the lack of reason that has infected public discourse around the solid science of climate change. bbr provides compost that we can grow something of value from and actually, god forbid, enlighten the populace.  But after a while too much compost begins to rot things and smell like what it is – BS. Too much is at stake to let climate deceivers sow doubt and distract us from the most important crisis of our time.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 28, 2018, 10:29:47 PM
Yes, snow is an insulator.  However, that does mean that the ground is on fire beneath it.  The land will lose heat to the air (not space), dependent on the temperature gradient.  Given enough time, the land surface and air will reach an equilibrium.  A layer of snow will slow down the rate of heat transfer.  The same layer that prevents cooling at night, prevents heating during the day (where the sun is shining).  Soil moisture has the same effect.  Hence, at identical temperatures, pipes will freeze slower  when snow is present, and proportional to its thickness.  Eventually, those pipes will freeze also.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on November 28, 2018, 11:08:35 PM
The level of delusion on this forum is insane. I am taking a break from this thread because answering these stupid replies is itself stupid. Enjoy wallowing in whatever it is you are wallowing in.

Good idea! Things are accumulating... 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on November 29, 2018, 01:52:52 AM

magnamentis, idk what your bones to pick with me are

even though i don't think this is a serious question, i'l gladly answer it:

a) permanent extreme as well as too long term forecasts

b) swiss cheese greenland ice-shield

c) new ice age

and not willing to learn the tiniest bit and moderate the terminology and to throw in theories and ideas more for consideration and/or as questions instead like statements of facts.

i tried 2 years to hint at the possibility to be less extreme, less absolute, less resolute and then you changed the topics of interest various times, from extent to greenland cheese to snow cover and it each instance the statements were definitely far off or jumping to conclusions from one season or one month of events to the next millions of years.

i hope you keep your promise to take a brake, shall i say; mission accomplished ? LOL

i only believe it when i see it happen ;)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Michael Hauber on November 29, 2018, 02:14:07 AM
Trivia break motivated by some recent controversy:

The specific heat of rock/soil is significant.  For granite it is about 20% of that of water by weight.  But granite is 2.75 x the density of water, so over 50% of the heat capacity of water.  The soil and rock below us cannot absorb as much water as the ocean, but it still can absorb quite a lot.  The importance of the ocean's ability to absorb heat is not just its specific heat capacity, but the rate that the heat can mix down below the surface (and then mix back up again).  In contrast the soil and rock pretty much does not mix up or down except in very unusual circumstances, and heat can only move in or out through conduction, and not be convection.

Heat absorbed by the ground can have quite a significant impact on weather as the Brown Ocean effect (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_ocean_effect)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on November 29, 2018, 04:57:18 AM
The soil and rock below us cannot absorb as much water as the ocean, but it still can absorb quite a lot.Brown Ocean effect (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_ocean_effect)

Trivial correction: Should presumably have been "as much heat" and not "as much water".
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on November 29, 2018, 05:53:23 PM
...... the 2016-2018 sea ice extent gap ripped open further, now to almost 1.5 million square kilometers. Most of the sea ice gap ripping was due to the present High Arctic & Arctic atmospheric chilling, funneling from Canada. However, the extreme to-date 2016 anomalous heating also caused sea ice extent LOSS, contributing to the wild splaying 2016-2018 sea ice extent separation. Should be more 2016-2018 sea ice extent widening coming.
The last fews days have placed the first (& largest) to-date 2016 sea ice extent LOSS in this general time of sea ice extent gain, graphically in the past. 2018 sea ice extent gain is presently paralleling the 2016 sea ice extent gain, but 1.5+ million square kilometers greater. Present High Arctic temperature is somewhat lower than the same period 2016 High Arctic temperature, possibly helping to maintain the 2016-2018 Arctic sea ice gap.
Since the recent greatest "2018-2016 Arctic sea ice extent" gap of 1.5+ million square kilometers, the gap has been decreasing, now to just 1.0+ million square kilometers. Present 2018 High Arctic atmospheric temperatures aren't as high as the same period in 2016, which would NOT explain the present narrowing between 2018 & 2016. 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on November 29, 2018, 06:13:13 PM
Trivia break motivated by some recent controversy:

...In contrast the soil and rock pretty much does not mix up or down except in very unusual circumstances, and heat can only move in or out through conduction, and not be convection....


It makes the math much more simple for a single profile. Conduction is easy to model. In contrast, across regions, modelling is much more difficult as there are enormous lateral variations. The grounds organic material, composition,layer structure, and water content all have to be accounted for. That and the way vegetation changes snow coverage makes predicting globally a challenge. At least in the oceans we just have heat and salinity...

It does mean that the depth when there is very little yearly variation is easy to find. I think it's about 2-3 meters for a decent wine cellar in Oxford.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 29, 2018, 07:30:07 PM
Enjoy wallowing in whatever it is you are wallowing in.

Good idea! Things are accumulating...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QW85kfakJc

Mud, mud, glorious mud
Nothing quite like it for cooling the blood
So follow me follow, down to the hollow
And there let me wallow in glorious mud
http://www.poppyfields.net/poppy/songs/hippopotamus.html
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 29, 2018, 08:28:45 PM
It makes me shiver [freezing season, so on topic??] to think I grew up with the two Flanders & Swann (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flanders_and_Swann) records, including, of course, the Hippopotamus Song  (words include "... let us wallow …").  By chance, I met Donald Swann at the Quaker Meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa, where he, also, was visiting.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 29, 2018, 09:44:07 PM
Southerlies are coming into the Chukchi Sea.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on November 29, 2018, 09:55:27 PM
It does mean that the depth when there is very little yearly variation is easy to find. I think it's about 2-3 meters for a decent wine cellar in Oxford.

Actually, can you continue to report on that wine cellar for us over the next 10 years or so?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 30, 2018, 08:47:27 AM
November 24-29.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on November 30, 2018, 09:08:52 AM
Interesting to see how the entire Atlantic front is pushed back in the last two frames. There was a low pressure area south-east of Svalbard that is now in decline, but the winds seem to have been mostly from east-north-east.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 30, 2018, 01:51:10 PM
todays ecmwf pressure from windy. 2.5m-4m waves along the ice front.
edit: 3m-5m waves tomorrow and sunday.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on November 30, 2018, 03:46:40 PM
It seems as if the resilient high pressure that's been hovering over the Arctic is finally being battered away in the next few days, pincer attacks coming in from the Atlantic and the Pacific fronts.

GIF showing the next few days, may need a click:
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 30, 2018, 06:25:38 PM
Thick ice dragged back out of the Mclure Strait.
Worldview, viirs brightness temperature, band15, night, nov21-30. (1.1MB)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 01, 2018, 02:59:35 PM
The extent numbers look quite healthy so far, but thicker ice is still melting along the Atlantic front all the way to FJL and looks like it will continue to melt for a while longer in the Chukchi. Fram/NSvalbard export may make a bigger difference this freezing season.
jaxa 2018 and 2017, nov1-30
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 02, 2018, 04:48:26 PM
A closer look at the Atlantic ice front using amsr2-uhh and comparing with mercator temperatures 0m and 34m depth. The mercator model showing most of the warmer Atlantic water flowing east towards Novaya Zemlya, with a smaller current flowing north towards Svalbard then turning east towards FJL along the edge of the Nansen basin.
If I understand correctly, some of the warmer salty atlantic water will mix with fresher melt water in the choppy seas along the ice front but most is destined to sink into the depths of the Nansen basin, the salt making it denser, despite being warmer.

Notice how the thinner ice north of FJL melts even when blown northward onto the warmer current.

amsr2-uhh, mercator temperature 0m and 34m, nov1-dec1

edit: Lower concentration ice is still just discernible over the 'upwelling' north of Svalbard.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 02, 2018, 05:10:48 PM
Could this be one of Hyperion's pyramid waves?  ;)

Polarview, north of Svalbard, dec1

edit: Some further detail on currents in the Fram Srait from a recent paper:
Quote
Fram Strait is the northernmost extension of the northern North Atlantic, and is the only deep gateway to the Arctic Ocean. The eastern Fram Strait is characterized by the West Spitsbergen Current carrying warm Atlantic Water northwards along the shelf-break ( Fahrbach et al., 2001;Schauer and BeszczynskaMöller, 2009;Beszczynska-Möller et al., 2012), continuing eastwards on the northern side of Svalbard (Figure 1). The current system west of Svalbard is complex and consists of three branches (Nilsen et al., 2016); an inner branch (the easternmost) crossing the Yermak Plateau, a branch following the western rim of the Yermak Plateau, and an offshore branch often called the Return Atlantic Current going further offshore and sending filaments of Atlantic Water westwards across Fram Strait.
https://tinyurl.com/y9cf8lqx
Knutsen, Tor & Wiebe, Peter & Gjøsæter, Harald & Ingvaldsen, Randi & Lien, Gunnar. (2017). High Latitude Epipelagic and Mesopelagic Scattering Layers - A Reference for Future Arctic Ecosystem Change. Frontiers in Marine Science. 4. 10.3389/fmars.2017.00334.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on December 03, 2018, 08:06:55 AM
There is - what is, and
there is - what may be.
Indeed, and then, there is - what may likely be.

GFS, CMC, EURO all show same thing.  ;)
Still way to far out.  There were lots of forecasts last fall that suggested all kinds of dire stuff - worse for ice creation than 2016 - but which moderated dramatically when we got closer to the 4 day window.  What you are seeing at day 8 is still so general and has such high probability of error that it has little utility beyond tweaking our curiosity.
All ensembles are also in agreement. This is partially due to the recurving WPAC storm / typhoon which becomes a major low near AK. I think this leads to a higher probability forecast vs. normal. But if I am wrong, feel free to throw this in my face come D8 (I will post verification then, myself!).
LoL cue peanuts voices in rebuke

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018120300/ecmwf_T850_namer_4.png)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on December 03, 2018, 08:23:24 AM
Still tracking 2015 closely. And you know what came after 2015 :)

Anyway, Atlantification adn Pacification seem to be the driving forces during the past couple of years...
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on December 03, 2018, 08:41:37 AM
LoL cue peanuts voices in rebuke
Was your forecast right or wrong?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on December 03, 2018, 08:46:42 AM
LoL cue peanuts voices in rebuke
Was your forecast right or wrong?
The unanimous forecast model output was correct, or rather, it will be in 48-72 hours.

(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/k6p1Ck0ab80/maxresdefault.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Rodius on December 03, 2018, 09:21:07 AM
Still tracking 2015 closely. And you know what came after 2015 :)

Anyway, Atlantification adn Pacification seem to be the driving forces during the past couple of years...

2011 is another comparative year to this year and what happened in 2012?
Any chance you can do the comparative map between 2011 and 2018?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on December 03, 2018, 09:30:01 AM
November 27 - December 2.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on December 03, 2018, 11:11:01 AM
November 27 - December 2.
While the Kara continues freezing, the Chukchi is holding and the Atlantic front is fighting back.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on December 03, 2018, 12:01:04 PM
By mid-January, as far as the March maximum extent is concerned  we will be only looking at

The Okhotsk Sea,
The Bering Sea,

The Greenland Sea,
The Barents Sea,
The Kara Sea, (?)

Baffin Bay,
The St Lawrence Sea,

But maybe what will really matter is how thick the ice is getting in the main Arctic Ocean ?

Or maybe what really matters is the extent to which each sea is open water and for how long ?

Once upon a time for me it was just a simple thing to say whether extent was increasing or decreasing at max and min. The more you know the less you know. Ho hum.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on December 03, 2018, 12:27:22 PM
Still tracking 2015 closely.

2011 is another comparative year to this year and what happened in 2012?
Any chance you can do the comparative map between 2011 and 2018?

2011 at this stage was very much different. Much less atlantification and pacification (ie. more ice in Bering/Chukchi, Barents) and much less ice in the Hudson.

The current setup (and probably the future) is more and more Atlantification and Pacification which leads to open seas at quite high latitudes. This leads to low pressure systems "curving" the jetstream and - as someone put it quite well on this forum - the cold comes out like from a toothpaste tube on the two ends, leading to a quick refreeze of the Hudson (making bbr very happy :)

In fact, the only years quite similar to this one (open Bering, Chukchi, Barents and freezing Hudson)  are the Decembers of 2007, 2013,15,17.

It seems to me that this setup is becoming the norm. I attach the 2007 and 2011 comparisons.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on December 03, 2018, 12:30:42 PM
I think the most important thing is the thickness in the CAB and directly surrounding regions, as this sets the resilience to withstand the melting season. The max is relatively meaningless, especially the Okhotsk and St. Lawrence parts as they are completely disconnected, and Baffin as well due to its southbound currents. The Greenland Sea matters only in its very northern parts, as the rest has a strong current flowing south.
Only the Barents/CAB region is very important, indicating the level of Atlantification that also strongly affects the melting season, and to a lesser degree the Bering indicating Pacification.
Note the Kara freezes up completely every year and is irrelevant as far as the max goes.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: arctic-watcher on December 03, 2018, 07:13:28 PM
Chukchi might be icing over in the next week or two if the GFS extended forecast holds decently true. 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on December 03, 2018, 08:52:43 PM
Chukchi might be icing over in the next week or two if the GFS extended forecast holds decently true.
The GFS *always* overestimates cold over the highly saline SSTs up north, and does the inverse for the fresh SSTs to their south (Kara, HB). I would be this is another false alarm. The model bias is systemic and incorrigible...!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on December 04, 2018, 09:35:37 PM
Warm and salty water remains historically encroached on the Arctic on both the Atlantic and Pacific front. Very bad news. Anywhere that doesn't have this true "ocean" water will obviously freeze while the sun is away. The question seems to be how much depth/power does the Pacific water in the Chukchi have. We might get a hint in during the next month, but won't get a definative answer until next April.

The shrinking distance between the encroaching salty oceans is the most noteworthy thing going on in the global climate system.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on December 04, 2018, 09:50:45 PM
Since the recent greatest "2018-2016 Arctic sea ice extent" gap of 1.5+ million square kilometers, the gap has been decreasing, now to just 1.0+ million square kilometers. Present 2018 High Arctic atmospheric temperatures aren't as high as the same period in 2016, which would NOT explain the present narrowing between 2018 & 2016.
2018 Arctic sea ice extent has reduced to the level of the average of the 2010's AND continues reducing the gap to 2016, now only ~ 0.6 million square kilometers greater.


Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on December 04, 2018, 10:17:33 PM
The cold Canadian weather at this time last year & through the winter was fairly stable. This year  Canada again started stable for the first month of anomalously low Canadian fall temperatures. But the Canadian cold has been moving the last month or so, sometimes into the U.S. & sometimes even into the High Arctic. Recently some warm fronts proceeding from Siberia & Alaska have been pushing into the High Arctic. But High Arctic temperatures are not jumping sky high, because the cold fronts from Canada have also been drifting into the High Arctic. 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on December 04, 2018, 10:32:05 PM
Since the recent greatest "2018-2016 Arctic sea ice extent" gap of 1.5+ million square kilometers, the gap has been decreasing, now to just 1.0+ million square kilometers. Present 2018 High Arctic atmospheric temperatures aren't as high as the same period in 2016, which would NOT explain the present narrowing between 2018 & 2016.
2018 Arctic sea ice extent has reduced to the level of the average of the 2010's AND continues reducing the gap to 2016, now only ~ 0.6 million square kilometers greater.

considering all the obvious information more or less all the stalls in freezing or even short dives are wind and wave action related.

whenever the whether is calm or relatively calm ice is building steadily and as soon high winds and the related waves come up from southerly regions at speed on both sides of the arctic things start to change to the worse.

temps alone, even while 20C above norm, if those 20C above norma are -20C the impact on the ice extent growth is negligible but above average temps + warm waters stored in depth + high winds and waves triggered such events repeatedly IMO

this is a very general observation or let's say "impression" to remain careful ;) but to me that's how it looks.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 04, 2018, 10:56:46 PM
<snippage>
The shrinking distance between the encroaching salty oceans
A reminder that warmer salty water tends to sink below colder fresh water. The atlantic side has a stronger current/larger incoming volume than the pacific but both tend to be limited in 'encroachment' by the depth of the arctic ocean (or sea or estuary).
At this stage it would appear that the ice gets thinner while attempting to cover historical extent.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on December 05, 2018, 05:37:47 AM
Since the recent greatest "2018-2016 Arctic sea ice extent" gap of 1.5+ million square kilometers, the gap has been decreasing, now to just 1.0+ million square kilometers. Present 2018 High Arctic atmospheric temperatures aren't as high as the same period in 2016, which would NOT explain the present narrowing between 2018 & 2016.
2018 Arctic sea ice extent has reduced to the level of the average of the 2010's AND continues reducing the gap to 2016, now only ~ 0.6 million square kilometers greater.
....temps alone, even while 20C above norm, if those 20C above norma(sic) are -20C the impact on the ice extent growth is negligible......
First, I've always referred to no local temperatures outside the High Arctic. My references have always been of average temperatures over the High Arctic which is almost 4 million square miles surrounding the North Pole. Second, since you mention 20C above normal while referring to my posts, you must mean the 2016 early December anomalous temperature. During this anomalous 20degC above average temp event  over 4 million square miles surrounding the North Pole, it was NOT -20degC. The actual temperature was -7degC., again, averaged over 4 million square miles surrounding the North Pole. Third, while the average temperature over 4 million square miles around the North Pole was -7degC, thawing regional temperatures 700 miles(& greater?) to the south, outside the High Arctic were occurring AND did reduce Arctic sea ice extent. To state that such vast heats in the Arctic negligibly impact Arctic sea ice growth, specially in the instance that you need major correction of the true temperature AND areas affected, truly casts your allegation aside. Fourth, your consideration that VAST High Arctic temperature rises (erroneous in two ways, on your part) are only coincidentally timed to minimal sea ice growth, AND even to Arctic sea ice LOSSES(NOT mentioned by you), during usual times of vast Arctic sea ice gains, must be thought  little researched by you.           

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on December 05, 2018, 04:44:17 PM
I can't do gifs and I am too lazy/old/stupid (delete all or none) to learn.
So here is from NSIDC 4 Dec & Dec 1 comparison to show sea ice retreat in the places it matters.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 05, 2018, 06:39:18 PM
A comparison of Atlantic side using amsr2-uhh, nov1-dec4, 2018,2017,2016,2015.
2015 is missing a couple of frames due to poor data so the day before was duplicated. Date label is too small. edit:bigger date for 2018
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on December 05, 2018, 08:45:37 PM

First, I've always referred to no local temperatures outside the High Arctic. My references have always been of average temperatures over the High Arctic which is almost 4 million square miles surrounding the North Pole. Second, since you mention 20C above normal while referring to my posts, you must mean the 2016 early December anomalous temperature.   

there must be a big misunderstanding and i assume it's my fault even though i'm not aware what it was that make you think that i denied anything you wrote.

i simply wanted to point at the correlation between wind and wave action as a main driver for unusual plateaus and/or dips in ice-building and for the rest i'm totally in agreement with what you pointed out.

the 20C were an example, i thought that i wrote "i.e" hence all the explanation you made dropped on already planted earth ;) not the tiniest bit of disagreement, simply added one point to all your correct points.

thing is that i predicted a plateau about a month ago but thought it would happen earlier and not that pronounced. in the aftermath when it didn't happen i started to search differences between when unusual dips and plateaus happen and when not, and came to the conclusion that the difference is mostly warm and moist air carried north by mostly atlantic but also pacific storms that at the same time stir up the seas and mix the layers, kind of dig up warmer and perhaps more saline waters.

that in addition not in contradiction to what you explained.

hope it's clear now
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on December 06, 2018, 06:57:53 AM
November 30 - December 5.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on December 06, 2018, 07:38:28 AM
November 30 - December 5.
The Kara ice was thrown back big time, which explains the sharp extent slowdown/contraction. Once this process stops, Kara will have room for quick growth again, in addition to Hudson, and we will have another period of above average gains.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on December 06, 2018, 08:02:42 AM
Eventually HB and Kara will freeze - but all forecasts seem to agree on more of the same, temps way above average over both areas, with southerlies particularly strong over Kara but also significant over the Hudson.

So the race is on for the end of month ranking!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on December 06, 2018, 08:12:34 AM
Eventually HB and Kara will freeze - but all forecasts seem to agree on more of the same, temps way above average over both areas, with southerlies particularly strong over Kara but also significant over the Hudson.

So the race is on for the end of month ranking!
Ya its really warm over Hudson Bay...

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018120600/ecmwf_T850_namer_1.png)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on December 06, 2018, 10:37:39 AM
Eventually HB and Kara will freeze - but all forecasts seem to agree on more of the same, temps way above average over both areas, with southerlies particularly strong over Kara but also significant over the Hudson.

So the race is on for the end of month ranking!
Ya its really warm over Hudson Bay...
Were you thinking of flying there in a balloon? I've never understood your fixation with the 850Hp temperature, that's not where the ice freezes, but 1.5 km further down. But, yes, it is bloody cold in the Hudson at the moment and freezing has picked up again.

I was, on the other hand, talking generally about the forecast, and looking at the anomaly and starting this coming Sunday the forecast is for large and increasing anomalies over the Hudson Bay, but perhaps more importantly, southerly winds and even a small low-pressure area building up over the southern HB if Windy.com is to be trusted.

So above-average temparatures, southerly winds and wave action within the next few days and apparently continuing as far as the forecasters dare to cast their fores.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on December 06, 2018, 10:41:56 AM
Actually, The Atlatic Front is very warm now (as shown on the first pic, ecmwf todays 850 hpa temp anomaly, red: hot, blue: cold) but this will change, and  North America will warm up (second pic, ecmwf t+6 days 850 hpa temp anomaly). Third pic: same as second, but only North America shown.

So the Hudson will probably be (relatively) quite warm in a few days' time and the Atlantic Front will "normalize"

 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 06, 2018, 11:11:50 AM
Worldview, viirs brightness temperature band15, night, dec6. https://tinyurl.com/y7s5h2hf
Greenland Sea looking a bit worse for wear after another storm and thick(ish) ice lined up for Fram export.
edit: Nares still open. That large floe rounding off its edges as it goes down.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on December 06, 2018, 11:56:19 PM
By 5th Dec, the SST for nearly all of the Chukchi was below 1 C. So not too long more to freeze-up, provided northerlies hold.

Much of the Bering though is still at 4 or 5 C.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 07, 2018, 12:30:38 AM
Agreed, patches of flash freezing already visible.... but the pack is so mobile, looking a bit wounded almost (obviously I'm reading too much into it ;) )
ascat, last 20days (enhanced contrast,clahe,unsharpmask)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 08, 2018, 07:14:30 PM
A more detailed look at the mobile ice in the CAB, north of ESS/Chukchi, dec7-8. Mostly lots of small fractures.
 - On average (last 10 years) 65.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
Accepted that the CAB may thicken for a while longer.

Worldview. viirs bt15day.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on December 08, 2018, 10:05:09 PM
That is one highly mobile ice pack. Fram and Nares export continues apace and some of that MYI transported from the Beaufort to the Chukchi appears to have melted.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on December 09, 2018, 08:48:51 AM
December 3-8.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on December 09, 2018, 08:59:40 AM
December 3-8.
With the Kara continuing to be blown back, seemingly the same wind regime has been pushing Chukchi ice into growth mode, and CAB ice into Fram export, thus achieving slightly above average growth.
I repeat my prediction that once the Kara process revereses, as it evntually will, we will see oversized extent gains - at least for a few days.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on December 09, 2018, 09:15:54 AM
December 3-8.
With the Kara continuing to be blown back, seemingly the same wind regime has been pushing Chukchi ice into growth mode, and CAB ice into Fram export, thus achieving slightly above average growth.
I repeat my prediction that once the Kara process revereses, as it evntually will, we will see oversized extent gains - at least for a few days.
"With the Kara continuing to be blown back". If it was only wind causing the ice front to retreat, surely one would see greater compaction. Looking at Aluminium's gif, there are signs of reduced compaction. Perhaps ocean heat transport is also having an effect (i.e. some of the extent loss is actually melt) ?

Mind you, that still means when the weather pattern changes there will be rapid extent gains. That weather pattern still looks like hanging on for a few more days.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 10, 2018, 11:24:33 AM
SMOS is a good indicator of ice thickness up to 0.5m at this time of year. It doesn't look like it is only compaction in the Kara Sea. Too cloudy recently for viirs.
Uni-Bremen, dec1-9.

Worldview, Fram Strait, dec10 with mercator 0m temperature inset bottom left. Cloud over the warm current south of Svalbard, ice melting at it's northern end where it sinks into the depths.
https://tinyurl.com/ybrnrbyn
edit: Ice can also be seen melting along the ice front as the rest of the current turns east along the north Svalbard coast
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Dharma Rupa on December 10, 2018, 02:18:41 PM
The (ESRL) freezing season so far:
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on December 10, 2018, 02:44:44 PM
DMI SSTs as at 9 Dec attached.

Will weather push ocean warmth at the ice, or will the reverse happen?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: vox_mundi on December 11, 2018, 05:16:51 PM
Sudden Stratospheric Warming Linked To Open Water in Polar Ice Pack
https://phys.org/news/2018-12-sudden-stratospheric-linked-polar-ice.html

Quote
(https://3c1703fe8d.site.internapcdn.net/newman/csz/news/800/2018/suddenstrato.jpg)

Though not especially rare in some parts of the Arctic, the north Greenland polynya of February 2018 was most unexpected. 50,000 km² of open water in the Wandel Sea, an area the size of the state of Kentucky or the province of Nova Scotia.

... In their paper, What caused the remarkable February 2018 Greenland Polynya? (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL080902), Moore, Schweiger, Jinlun Zhang and Mike Steele identify the polynya's cause to be strong surface winds catalyzed by a dramatic warming in Earth's upper atmosphere known as a Sudden Stratospheric Warming.

"During these events, temperatures in the stratosphere – about 30km above ground level—can warm by 10° or 15°C in just a few days," Moore says.

"This causes a change in air circulation that includes a reversal in the winds in the stratosphere. These high altitude winds blow against the west-to-east direction of the jet stream, descending toward the Earth's surface. In February 2018, this caused winds from Siberia to blow cold air into northern Europe, creating a weather system that became known as the 'Beast from the East'. It brought temperatures of minus 20°C to northern Europe, and the same weather pattern moved warmer air northwards up the east coast of Greenland."

Strong southerly winds forced mild air to Greenland and beyond, but it wasn't their warmth that caused the polynya.

"Most Arctic warmings last a day or two," says Moore. "This lasted a week, and these were the warmest temperatures and strongest winds observed in north Greenland since observations began in the 1960s. Winds were close to hurricane force (93+km/h) and temperatures were above freezing. Once we got that piece of the puzzle, we realized it could be wind rather than warmth that caused the polynya."

While the size of the polynya was unprecedented over the period we have good data, it appears not to be tied to the thinning of the ice pack that has occurred over the same period. Simulations with the University of Washington's Pan-Arctic Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) indicate that similar conditions would have created a polynya, even without the recent thinning of the ice north of Greenland.

G. W. K. Moore et al. What caused the remarkable February 2018 North Greenland Polynya? (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL080902), Geophysical Research Letters (2018)
Quote
Abstract:

During late February and early March 2018, an unusual polynya was observed off the north coast of Greenland. This period was also notable for the occurrence of a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). Here we use satellite and in‐situ data, a reanalysis and an ice‐ocean model to document the evolution of the polynya and its synoptic forcing. We show that its magnitude was unprecedented and that it was associated with the transient response to the SSW leading to anomalous warm southerly flow in north Greenland. Indeed, regional wind speeds and temperatures were the highest during February going back to the 1960s. There is evidence that the thinning sea ice has increased its wind‐driven mobility. However, we show that the polynya would have developed under thicker ice conditions representative of the late 1970s and that even with the predicted trend towards thinner sea ice, it will only open during enhanced southerly flow.

Plain Language Summary:

In late February 2018, satellite imagery revealed the presence of a large polynya (a region of reduced sea ice cover within the pack), in the Wandel Sea off the north coast of Greenland. Since this region is not known for the development of polynyas, this discovery generated interest among Arctic observers and in the science community, raising questions about the nature and cause of this unusual event. In this paper, we show that its opening coincided with a period of sustained and unusually warm winds from the south, with above‐freezing temperatures and wind speeds in excess of 25 m/s reported at local weather stations. February 2018 was also notable for a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event, in which an abrupt warming of the atmosphere between 10‐50 km altitude occurred in conjunction with a reversal of the stratospheric winds. We show this event was responsible for the polynya. We also use a computer model to confirm the dominant role of the winds in creating the polynya. Finally, we show that even with future thinning of sea ice due to climate change, extreme winds will remain necessary to create a polynya in this region over the next few decades.

Pointer to the 2017-2018 freezing season discussion
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2141.msg143538.html#msg143538

and the ASIB
Talk about unprecedented
https://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2018/02/talk-about-unprecedented.html

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2141.0;attach=97533;image)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2141.0;attach=97718;image)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on December 11, 2018, 08:22:25 PM
High Arctic temperatures are fluctuating, but trending higher. Intense warming is occurring over northern Canada & will even strengthen in the next week. A portion of this Canadian heat is predicted to flow south, warming the continental U.S. AND flow north, continuing the High Arctic warming. The warming is pushing cold elements of Arctic weather to the south onto western Alaska & eastern Siberia.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on December 11, 2018, 09:54:26 PM
NSIDC Daily extent maps for Dec 10 2018 compared with Dec 10 2017.

2018 extent is up in the Chukchi, Eastern Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait.

2018 extent is down in Okhotsk, Barents and Kara Seas.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Thomas Barlow on December 11, 2018, 10:12:00 PM
Re. The Freezing Season, because I believe we will see record low maximums this winter due to this, and previous years' demise, and this confirms what many on this forum have been recording.

Headline: "The Arctic we once knew is gone"

"The changes in the Arctic are happening faster than they’re happening anywhere else on the rest of the planet."" - Jeremy Mathis, a NOAA Arctic scientist.
'In 1985, the oldest ice (which is ice greater than four years old) comprised 16 percent of Arctic's total sea ice, the report concludes. But by March 2018, the old ice made up just 0.9 percent of the Arctic's ice, the report said.'
'That's a 95 percent reduction.'
"That older, thicker ice showed very clear signs of melting this year," said Mathis.

https://mashable.com/article/arctic-climate-change-2018/#HXVx0UwEUmq8
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 11, 2018, 10:48:58 PM
Shearing along the Lomonosov ridge line, north of the Nares Strait.
Worldview, viirsbt15n, dec9-11

edit:cropped it down a bit
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on December 12, 2018, 07:30:05 AM
December 6-11.

The Chukchi Sea is freezing.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on December 12, 2018, 08:20:18 AM
December 6-11.

The Chukchi Sea is freezing.
And the Kara has stopped shrinking.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on December 12, 2018, 09:52:59 AM
December 6-11.

The Chukchi Sea is freezing.
And the Kara has stopped shrinking.
In fact the entire Atlantic front + Kara seems to be increasing.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 12, 2018, 01:06:38 PM
In fact the entire Atlantic front + Kara seems to be increasing.
That's one way of describing it.  Worldview link, https://tinyurl.com/y6wyep2b
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on December 12, 2018, 01:36:32 PM
Weather systems are still bringing winds and warmth from the south up the Atlantic Front. This presumably will at least slow the freeze even if extent loss stops.

On the other hand, the opposite seems to apply in the Pacific Gateway at least for the next few days..
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: meddoc on December 12, 2018, 04:34:53 PM
There is a potential Polar Vortex Collapse in 5 Days.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Brigantine on December 13, 2018, 12:03:04 AM
Per CIS, the Parry Channel is mobile again.

Also, there's this one ARGO float sitting in the warm current NE of Svaalbard (~82N 39E).
It's taking profiles every day, and it's quite Atlantified there.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: arctic-watcher on December 13, 2018, 06:59:53 AM
Chukchi might be icing over in the next week or two if the GFS extended forecast holds decently true.
The GFS *always* overestimates cold over the highly saline SSTs up north, and does the inverse for the fresh SSTs to their south (Kara, HB). I would be this is another false alarm. The model bias is systemic and incorrigible...!

GFS and ECMWF forecasts for Chukchi were acccurate for the the last 10 days and continue the cold anomaly for at least another 3 to 5 days. 
Chukchi is on course to be iced over by this weekend.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 13, 2018, 12:16:29 PM
Per CIS, the Parry Channel is mobile again.

Also, there's this one ARGO float sitting in the warm current NE of Svaalbard (~82N 39E).
It's taking profiles every day, and it's quite Atlantified there.
Thank you Brigantine. Mclure Strait looks frozen but there is movement further south.
Will look at the ARGO float on the salinity thread. That looks worse than I thought.

ecmwf wave forecast dec13-22 from windy
edit: ~82N 39E is the northernmost open water top right, north of the westernmost FJL island.
added scale
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on December 13, 2018, 11:45:58 PM

Chukchi is on course to be iced over by this weekend.

Overall this freezing season has been sluggish. Especially as it turns out, on the Atlantic side. Back on Oct 16th last, things were looking dire too for the Chukchi.

GoSouthYoungins made a reasonable prediction back then. I tended to agree with most of this. But I held out more hope for the Chukchi

I think we can make a pretty good guesstimate already for how the freezing season will pan out:

The Laptev Sea freeze will be several weeks delayed. This may be countered (not in effect, but in extent measurements) by an early freeze in the Hudson Bay.

The Chukchi Sea will likely be the real story (which will probably lead into Bering Sea anomalies as well). The delays will probably be record setting.

ESS, Beaufort, and CAA will probably be quicker to freeze than in recent years.

Barents and Kara have non-impressive SST anomalies but currently the ice edge is very far away. Likely nothing too interesting.

The other seas may change weather patterns but I don't think have a direct or predictable effect on the arctic, so I don't really care.

Agree, disagree?

I did go against the grain and suggested that it might not be so bad in the Chukchi. (This is of course all relatively speaking to the last two years. I do realise even now the Chukchi is still way behind climatology).

My prediction was based on the extensive stretch of old ice moving west across the Beaufort and also that something still remained of the ESS arm. Both of these might help ice extend into the Chukchi provided synoptics played ball - and they (synoptics) did. Making predictions re the Arctic can be a bit of a lottery and you can quickly end up with egg on your face but I was glad I made this one.


Agree, disagree?

I agree with that  summation.

Only comment i would  make is that maybe,if synoptic weather patterns play ball with an anticyclonic block to the northern Chukchi, that it might not be a record breaking late freeze up in the Chukchi. 
The Beaufort seems to be advancing well and if there was persistent easterlies this would gradually cool down the very high Chukchi SSTs. There is a long way to go though, admittedly.
Of course Chukchi may still be bombarded with warm southerlies , like last winter, so will wait and see.

Given the very warm SSTs in the Chukchi, it has been quite a turnaround. NWS Alaska forecast for Dec 17th shows it ice covered.

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on December 14, 2018, 01:07:09 PM
Overall this freezing season has been sluggish.
Much of that sluggish appearance is due to average high temperatures in the High Arctic. But that doesn't mean weather conditions have NOT been changing. Along with southern warm fronts moving into the High Arctic, cold fronts from Canada & Greenland have also been intermittently leaking into the Arctic & High Arctic. Presently, a mix of high pressure systems in the High Arctic, surrounded by a series of low pressure systems further south, seem to assure that cold & warm fronts will continue their High Arctic contention for  the next week or so.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on December 15, 2018, 09:50:09 AM
December 9-14.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on December 15, 2018, 05:37:15 PM
Thanks Aluminium. Shows the closing in of the Chukchi.

My thoughts are now moving on to the Bering.

New ice is forming around St.Lawrence Island. By next Wednesday 19th NWS Alaska forecast map shows the ice surrounding the island.

This is a considerable change to what the Monthly Outlook on Nov 20th (from same website) predicted : "The ice edge is expected to reach Saint Lawrence Island by the end
of January".
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: arctic-watcher on December 15, 2018, 11:46:26 PM
When did Chukchi ice over last year? 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on December 16, 2018, 12:32:34 AM
When did Chukchi ice over last year?

around the 5th of january 2018 as far as i see it, depends whether you ask for extent or area there might be a difference but definitely not mid december.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 16, 2018, 02:44:56 PM
An amateur attempt to match argo float 3901910 to amsr2-uhh to see how close to the ice edge it travelled, aug18-dec14. It reported weekly until december and has been reporting daily since. Report (cycle) numbers are overlayed onto Greenland, bottom left.
The main observation is that the warm current alongside the ice front is ~2.5C at surface recently.

More details and data here https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg184302.html#msg184302

edit: "These data were collected and made freely available by the Coriolis project and programmes that contribute to it (http://www.coriolis.eu.org)."

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on December 16, 2018, 03:06:26 PM
Uniquorn that is the most superb animation. Thank you.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on December 16, 2018, 03:37:05 PM
Uniquorn that is the most superb animation. Thank you.

Agreed!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on December 16, 2018, 03:40:27 PM
When did Chukchi ice over last year?

Charts can be found here.

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: arctic-watcher on December 16, 2018, 11:57:59 PM
thank you.  and to Niall also. 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 17, 2018, 12:21:03 PM
Worldview, viirs,bt15n,dec16-17.  https://tinyurl.com/y75x8uxf
Westerly winds pushing large floes into the warm current north of Svalbard. Low concentration ice above the possible upwelling (just above centre) looks more like a whirlpool. Quite a turbulent forecast for this area tomorrow.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on December 17, 2018, 06:18:43 PM
Lately 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has been paralleling seasonal daily ice extents for past years. Now in one day, 2018 sea ice extent jumped 260,000 km2 & is 160,000 km2 greater than even the 2010's average sea ice extent. 2018 High Arctic temperatures did drop by 2+degC over the last few days, but in addition, several cold regions coinciding with Arctic sea ice edge freezing are in place. We'll see if this temporary excess freezing continues.   
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on December 17, 2018, 08:59:45 PM
We'll see if this temporary excess freezing continues.

If it isn't an artifact.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on December 17, 2018, 09:30:06 PM
NWS Alaska Ice Stage map for 16th Dec shows that the old ice that was situated in the eastern Beaufort in Sept, moved west during the autumn and has moved south down the Chukchi below Cape Lisburne.

However above 75N there is a large area of only first year medium ice - this is consistent with a clockwise Beaufort gyre with more west to east movement above that latitude.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on December 18, 2018, 01:53:57 AM
We'll see if this temporary excess freezing continues.

If it isn't an artifact.

if we look at some maps like UH for example we clearly see the artifact kind of flaw on the atlantic side where strange patterns show east of greenland and north of iceland.

that's not a proof but i strongly assume that this is a false alarm (relieve)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on December 18, 2018, 08:56:03 AM
Lately 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has been paralleling seasonal daily ice extents for past years. Now in one day, 2018 sea ice extent jumped 260,000 km2 & is 160,000 km2 greater than even the 2010's average sea ice extent. 2018 High Arctic temperatures did drop by 2+degC over the last few days, but in addition, several cold regions coinciding with Arctic sea ice edge freezing are in place. We'll see if this temporary excess freezing continues.
///////
Quoted by Neven:
 litesong on December 17, 2018, 06:18:43 PM   We'll see if this temporary excess freezing continues.
/////
Neven wrote:
If it isn't an artifact.
///////
litesong wrote:
Into the second day, the 2018 excess freezing settles down, but still increased, compared to 2010's daily sea ice average, from 160,000 km2 to 200,000 km2. As stated previously, severe cooling along Arctic sea ice edges may account for the present 2018 jumpy sea ice increase.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on December 18, 2018, 10:00:33 AM
If it isn't an artifact.

Casual correction: an artifact is something Indiana Jones finds. Artefact is an artificial product or effect observed in a natural system, especially one introduced by the technology used in scientific investigation or by experimental error.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on December 18, 2018, 10:11:36 AM
From Uni Bremen website (https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/):

Quote
Notice: Sea ice concentration: Data problem Dec 16, 2018

There is a gap of about 14 hours in the data for Dec 16, therefore the sea ice concentration data of Dec 16 are incomplete, In addition, apparently one swath had corrupted data, causing strange values in the Greenland Sea and Barents Sea. We will reprocess as soon as the data are complete.

False color from December 15 and 17 - just from eyeballing I would have guessed a small drop.

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on December 18, 2018, 10:33:36 AM
False color from December 15 and 17 - just from eyeballing I would have guessed a small drop.

I did the same for JAXA in the area and extent thread:
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on December 18, 2018, 10:36:46 AM
I know ... I know ... (voiceover by Sybil Fawlty) ... that's what gave me the idea!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on December 18, 2018, 11:42:39 AM
Un-massive growth in Bering, nothing (or shrinkage) in Kara, nothing on the Atlantic front, I can't see where 300k came from.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on December 18, 2018, 01:43:36 PM
I can't see where 300k came from.
This is definitely strange.

Maybe, from the Antarctic? :)
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent - 8,852,289 km2(December 17, 2018)

Extent loss of 428k , 181k greater than average on this day.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on December 18, 2018, 09:23:02 PM
Significant stratospheric PV disruption coming up (possible splitting later?), 10hpa temps shown. This often leads to very funny weather up in the Arctic, and down at the midlatitudes as well. Could bring some excitement :)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on December 18, 2018, 10:58:19 PM
Lately 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has been paralleling seasonal daily ice extents for past years. Now in one day, 2018 sea ice extent jumped 260,000 km2 & is 160,000 km2 greater than even the 2010's average sea ice extent. 2018 High Arctic temperatures did drop by 2+degC over the last few days, but in addition, several cold regions coinciding with Arctic sea ice edge freezing are in place. We'll see if this temporary excess freezing continues.
///////
Quoted by Neven:
 litesong on December 17, 2018, 06:18:43 PM   We'll see if this temporary excess freezing continues.
/////
Neven wrote:
If it isn't an artifact.
///////
litesong wrote:
Into the second day, the 2018 excess freezing settles down, but still increased, compared to 2010's daily sea ice average, from 160,000 km2 to 200,000 km2. As stated previously, severe cooling along Arctic sea ice edges may account for the present 2018 jumpy sea ice increase.

it's only one day but due to the fact that it's 2-day average it affects the following days while it should be back to normal soon.

not totally sure about wheter the 2 days are correct but it's more than one day.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on December 18, 2018, 11:20:02 PM
I think it's a consolidation taking place after the recent new moon and the lows driving winds and  tides, all the periphery was disrupted and freezing slowed, now it's back on track. Wouldn't have predicted this 'recovery' of impetus but it's not that surprising, winters coming.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: magnamentis on December 19, 2018, 01:46:45 PM
I think it's a consolidation taking place after the recent new moon and the lows driving winds and  tides, all the periphery was disrupted and freezing slowed, now it's back on track. Wouldn't have predicted this 'recovery' of impetus but it's not that surprising, winters coming.

that's a bit jumping to conclusions against the obvious, you will see ;)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on December 19, 2018, 01:48:32 PM
Artefact is an artificial product or effect observed in a natural system, especially one introduced by the technology used in scientific investigation or by experimental error.
Two days ago, after Arctic sea ice extent had been paralleling other years of Arctic sea ice rise in the Arctic fall & winter darkness, I noted JAXA Arctic sea ice extent datum JUMPED 260,000 km2 in one day, rising dramatically above the general seasonal Arctic sea ice increase. Neven, immediately posted that the JAXA data gathering might be at fault. Other long time followers of Arctic conditions, agreed that the one day datum might be suspect.
Now, JAXA data indicates a one day DROP in Arctic sea ice extent of the same 260,000 km2. It appears that Neven & other posters, aren't slaves to........ datum points.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 19, 2018, 10:34:23 PM
Quite a clear view of the Chukchi today on worldview.   https://tinyurl.com/ya43cwu6
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on December 20, 2018, 07:57:13 AM
December 12-19.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 20, 2018, 11:58:48 AM
Large floes meet the warm current and warm(ish) winds on the ice edge north east of Svalbard, dec18-20 (19th cloudy) The large floe in the centre right on the 18th is was ~20km top to bottom.
Worldview, viirs, bt15n.
edit:  https://tinyurl.com/y7e7c47e
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on December 20, 2018, 07:19:40 PM
Floes are disintegrating as they enter this warm water.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 23, 2018, 05:57:47 PM
967hPa forecast for north west of SZ tomorrow. Ice on the western corner already looking quite weak.
Worldview, viirs, bt15day, dec23 and windy ecmwf pressure 0m dec23 forecast for dec24
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on December 24, 2018, 04:37:14 PM
AMSR2 regional data anomalies for today's date
(2018- 2012->2018 mean)

I couldn't figure out a good way to normalise this to area-of-the-sea-of-interest so there is a bias in the size of the bars to some extent.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on December 24, 2018, 04:48:09 PM
AMSR2 regional data anomalies for today's date
(2018- 2012->2018 mean)

I couldn't figure out a good way to normalise this to area-of-the-sea-of-interest so there is a bias in the size of the bars to some extent.
Nice graph. I think the absolute anomaly in km2 is okay, I don't see it as biased.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on December 25, 2018, 08:31:41 AM
December 17-24.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on December 25, 2018, 09:12:12 AM
Another retreat event in the Kara. No wonder extent gains are slow, despite relatively rapid gains in the Bering.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 25, 2018, 04:17:24 PM
same old same old.
bon fete :)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on December 25, 2018, 11:44:23 PM
Wind will push ice to Svalbard for the next 5 days.
(https://pp.userapi.com/c847017/v847017894/1653e0/bQoIeIvKG_4.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on December 26, 2018, 10:31:29 PM
AMSR2 image for 3rd December contrasted with present extent line (in orange).

The front has extended slowly south in the vicinity of Svalbard but it's tough going against the west Spitsbergen current.

Meanwhile the retreat in the Kara is around 200km long !
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 28, 2018, 11:22:40 PM
Yes, the ice front may make it across to Svalbard over the next few days.

An animation of the Kara/Barents using uni hamburg amsr2, oct18-dec27, 7days/sec (~3MB)

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on December 30, 2018, 08:59:42 AM
December 22-29.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 30, 2018, 11:13:35 AM
A 974hPa cyclone over the Kara tomorrow might spread the ice around a bit.
Wipneus regional sie, Kara, dec29.
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 31, 2018, 12:26:41 PM
Ice on the Atlantic front reaches the Svalbard Islands.
Worldview, Atlantic ice front, viirs,bt15n, dec31 (click on image for full size)
Polarview, Svalbard, dec31
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on December 31, 2018, 01:34:31 PM
Yes finally ice beginning to arrive at the north coast of Svalbard. Today's image from the Norwegian Met shows fingers of 1-4/10 ice reaching the north coast of Spitsbergen (the western island).

Although I wouldn't quite call it an end until I see the 9-10/10 ice arrive. The last time very close drift ice reached the north coast of Spitsbergen was July 2017. That's almost 18 months ice free.

The area to the east of Svalbard should really be all ice covered at this stage but is taking an interminably long time despite air temps being -10 C  to -12 C for the past while.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 31, 2018, 03:08:52 PM
Agreed. The ice north and north east of Svalbard looks fragile. The wind is forecast to change jan2.
amsr2-uhh, atlantic front,dec24-31
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on December 31, 2018, 04:21:33 PM
Around Svalbard the winds have been more or less constant from the north for the last 10 days or so but that seems about to change, with the first warm gust of 2019 hitting on Wednesday. Whether it heralds a change, or is a one-off, I couldn't say.

The low-pressure areas coming up the Atlantic seem to have been deflecting towards the east before hitting Svalbard, but playin ravage in the Kara instead over the last weeks.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on December 31, 2018, 07:09:19 PM
Agreed. The ice north and north east of Svalbard looks fragile. The wind is forecast to change jan2.
amsr2-uhh, atlantic front,dec24-31

The ice may be drifting south but I think I see evidence of melt all along the edge from Franz Josef to Svalbard. You can see large ice flows on the leading edge breaking up and disintegrating. What are the SST's here?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on January 01, 2019, 10:50:22 AM
I think I see evidence of melt all along the edge from Franz Josef to Svalbard. You can see large ice flows on the leading edge breaking up and disintegrating. What are the SST's here?
There is a fairly thin line of Sea Surface Temperatures, between the island groups, that are warmer than normal, ~ 4(?) degC. I'm just looking at the Northern Hemisphere, so its not high resolution. 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on January 01, 2019, 12:56:51 PM
SST's from the argo float are here
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg184302.html#msg184302
though it hasn't surfaced since dec14 (or batteries may be flat).
Agreed, evidence of melt as far as FJL. Worldview, viirsbt15n, dec23-jan1. (3MB)

On a brighter note, Bering sea is freezing.
amsr2-uhh, dec1-31. (1.4MB)

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: meddoc on January 01, 2019, 02:56:34 PM
Happy (WACCy) New Year....

There's a major SSW- Event underway, gonna split the Polar Vortex into bits.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on January 01, 2019, 04:14:34 PM
Happy (WACCy) New Year....

There's a major SSW- Event underway, gonna split the Polar Vortex into bits.


We could use a bit of WACCy weather in Scotland at the moment. I have never seen such little early-season snow in 10+ years of winter climbing (there is none below 3500ft).

I'm actually hoping the split aims some of the cold air at us, though that's rarely the case.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 01, 2019, 08:30:38 PM
There's a major SSW- Event underway

Judah Cohen's article on the topic:

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: meddoc on January 01, 2019, 08:48:14 PM

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

Thanks, but basic Knowledge of Thermodynamics & a good Geography Class on Hadley Cells & Atmospheric Circulation is enough to interpret where this is headed...
And it's not good.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 01, 2019, 08:52:02 PM
See also:

https://twitter.com/rgatess/status/1080158902510006272
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Sterks on January 02, 2019, 05:56:00 PM
There's a major SSW- Event underway

Judah Cohen's article on the topic:

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

It's going to be a snowy January in the NH continents, in many areas of mid-high latitudes. Dec 2018 ended with average snow cover per Rutgers lab, expect a ramp up for the next month or so.

Anything to expect over the Arctic proper? Effects of past SSWs in Jan/Feb were very disappointing in any aspect apart from some spectacular cracks due to the ensuing anticyclone.

Edit: this anticyclone is predicted by ECMWF to appear at 1040s hPa early next week and linger at that level for three or four days, while it gets colder in Europe and North America
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: meddoc on January 03, 2019, 12:21:30 PM

It's going to be a snowy January in the NH continents, in many areas of mid-high latitudes. Dec 2018 ended with average snow cover per Rutgers lab, expect a ramp up for the next month or so.

Anything to expect over the Arctic proper? Effects of past SSWs in Jan/Feb were very disappointing in any aspect apart from some spectacular cracks due to the ensuing anticyclone.

Edit: this anticyclone is predicted by ECMWF to appear at 1040s hPa early next week and linger at that level for three or four days, while it gets colder in Europe and North America

I guess we need to be analyzing in 4D here.
This Cold leaving the Fridge now, will be very much missing in Spring/ Summer in the NH.
Last Season we had summer Temps from 8th April til first Week of November, with very little Precipitation. This Year's gonna be more of a Scorcher.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on January 04, 2019, 08:20:08 AM
December 27 - January 3.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on January 04, 2019, 10:05:19 AM
December 27 - January 3.

It seems that the increases in the last few days are mostly on the Atlantic front, with the ice being pushed and dispersed by northerly winds.

This situation could change quite fast, but the forecasts are a bit hither and thither and difficult to interpret for an amateur. But if the winds do turn, the Atlantic front could be pushed back quite a distance, including in the Kara.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on January 04, 2019, 10:33:01 AM
This wind driven advance may be overstretching the pack a little. Hopefully the refreeze will keep up.
Worldview, viirs, bt15,night, jan4.  https://tinyurl.com/y8kan8n5

edit: viirs has been available since sep17 so added jan4,2018 for comparison. More ice (extent) but probably thinner, particularly in the Lincoln sea (left). edit: Though Tealight has Lincoln Sea at 3m so perhaps not thinner.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2268.msg185737.html#msg185737

All of the peripheral seas also increased in extent yesterday.
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on January 04, 2019, 01:30:12 PM
With the new moon on sunday we may see Atlantic waters accelerated once again into Kara, north of Svalbard and across the Atlantic front, with the ice driven back [melted?] once more.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on January 06, 2019, 03:25:44 AM

I guess we need to be analyzing in 4D here.
This Cold leaving the Fridge now, will be very much missing in Spring/ Summer in the NH.
Last Season we had summer Temps from 8th April til first Week of November, with very little Precipitation. This Year's gonna be more of a Scorcher.

What is that prediction based on? The Farmer's Almanac or Old Farmer's Almanac? :)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on January 06, 2019, 11:28:25 AM
Kara Sea trying to freeze. Polarview jan6

Also a good view of the Bering Strait today on Worldview, viirs,bt15,night.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: meddoc on January 06, 2019, 08:33:13 PM

What is that prediction based on? The Farmer's Almanac or Old Farmer's Almanac? :)

It's not a Predicition, it's Common Sense.
Peer- reviewed by Neurology.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on January 07, 2019, 12:14:06 PM
The warm current apparently still at work under the ice north of FJL.
Worldview,viirs,bt15n,jan5-7 see next post
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on January 08, 2019, 02:10:49 PM
Less cloud today. worldview,viirs,bt15n, northFJL, jan7-8.

ascat, day325-007. (3.6MB)
Hopefully ice on the Pacific side will be less mobile now the Bering Strait is plugged. The Beaufort arc of older ice bifurcated at the Chukchi while there was open water. The atlantic ice front made it to Svalbard only to be pushed back, possibly temporarily. Fast moving, quite fragile ice in the Greenland Sea due for another pounding tomorrow and 957 949hPa cyclone gfs forecast for thursday before thicker ice from the CAA makes its way across in the next few days (see Tealight https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2268.msg185799.html#msg185799).

windy ecmwf forecast for jan10
hmmm. 11m waves, >90km/h wind forecast along the Greenland sea ice front on friday. Like Meddoc (sort of) says, maybe a large short term extent gain coming.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Sterks on January 08, 2019, 05:07:35 PM
That's an amazing pressure gradient, the Fram will be subject to it. Assuming near 100 km/h and that the floes will pick a 25th of that speed, that is 100 km/day for the ice approx. Maybe I am erring on the high side, but will be interesting to observe.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 09, 2019, 12:47:19 AM
The latest edition of Arctic Sea Ice News is out:

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2019/01/new-year-lows-once-again/

Quote
Unfortunately, as a result of the partial government shutdown, we are unable to access the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) pages to retrieve information on atmospheric air temperatures and sea level pressure patterns. Instead, we turn to daily (2 meters above the surface) mean air temperatures north of 80 degrees North from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational model. This analysis shows that air temperatures remained above the 1958 to 2002 average for all of December (Figure 2b)

Figure 2b courtesy of Zack Labe (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=profile;u=1252):


Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on January 09, 2019, 08:33:45 AM
January 1-8.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on January 09, 2019, 08:49:23 AM
Still very slow going around Svalbard. In fact the ice has been pushed back well north of Spitzbergen, again.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: oren on January 09, 2019, 09:45:05 AM
Indeed, and I believe some of the push back is actually strong melt, as evidenced by movement of coarse features compared to the speed of retreat, especially on the last frame.
The Atlantic is fighting back.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on January 09, 2019, 12:05:01 PM
The cyclone in the Greenland Sea -> Barents will probably drag a lot of ice (and cold air) back towards Svalbard.
edit:added wind and temp. Windy ecmwf jan9 forecast for jan11
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on January 09, 2019, 03:42:04 PM
Indeed, and I believe some of the push back is actually strong melt, as evidenced by movement of coarse features compared to the speed of retreat, especially on the last frame.
The Atlantic is fighting back.
agreed. Polarview, svalbard, this morning. Sorry, not much ice in this image, mostly wind blown slush. https://www.polarview.aq/arctic for more images.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on January 09, 2019, 03:52:24 PM
As an anomalous cold front sweeps over the North Pole, the DMI temp, above the 80th parallel &  biased to the north, shows a strong drop, even with warm fronts also above the 80th parallel. Forecasts predict the cold front will move off the North Pole. We'll see if DMI temperatures will rise later.   
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on January 10, 2019, 07:19:57 AM
957 949hPa cyclone gfs forecast for thursday
946 hPa right now.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on January 11, 2019, 12:10:27 PM
Pretty sure that's not ice round Jan Mayen. Dense cloud perhaps. Some goodbye waves visible to the far left of the polarview image.
amsr2, east greenland, jan10
polarview, jan mayen, jan10
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on January 11, 2019, 03:02:44 PM
Pretty sure that's not ice round Jan Mayen. Dense cloud perhaps. Some goodbye waves visible to the far left of the polarview image.

Or is it the Odden Ice Tongue (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=1804.0)? That would be pretty amazing. A blast from the past.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on January 11, 2019, 10:26:14 PM
 ???

Current and potentially sustained anomalously cool ocean surface conditions for the next few days in the Fram and southward.

Could this be a totally unexpected (brief) return of the Odden?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on January 11, 2019, 11:29:05 PM
no
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on January 12, 2019, 12:00:15 AM
agreed, it happened just as the storm passed north so I suspect ice driven by wind or windrows of ice in the troughs of the waves.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on January 12, 2019, 12:45:18 AM
Shame, would have spurred some interesting reading had it happened.

Forgive my naivety.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Neven on January 12, 2019, 10:32:23 AM
Well, we've seen oddener things happen.  ;)
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on January 12, 2019, 12:26:43 PM
Shame, would have spurred some interesting reading had it happened.

Forgive my naivety.
thanks for the research  :)  It's unlikely that this year's mostly first year ice is up to the job. Waves are over 3m today, forecast for over 4m tomorrow.
polarview, Greenland ice front closest to Jan Mayen, jan12 
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: litesong on January 12, 2019, 07:29:32 PM
Here's a "ho hum" news article on the first -50degF weather system(spot temperature, -51.7degF) in Alaska for the winter season:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/31275

Contrasting a continental "far north cold" U.S. state, Maine had its coldest ever temp recorded in mid-January 2009 of....... -50degF.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 12, 2019, 07:35:19 PM
In the continuing absence of the PIOMAS numbers, here's my own take on the current state of the sea ice in the Arctic:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/01/facts-about-the-arctic-in-january-2019/

Quote
According to The Economist today:

"America’s government shutdown has become the longest in history. Hundreds of thousands of federal workers remain either stuck at home or forced to work without pay."

and according to the Polar Science Center at the University of Washington:

"Due to the US Government Shutdown, PIOMAS ice volume and thickness data which depend on federal government generated reanalysis products, are currently not updated."

Plus another blast from the past courtesy of the Russian Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, where everybody still appears to be hard at work. Note that there's no sign of the Odden Ice Tongue on any of those maps!

Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: meddoc on January 13, 2019, 01:34:11 PM
The Vortex is Toast...
Get Ready for a Scorcher as soon as the Sun comes back.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 13, 2019, 03:33:04 PM
The Vortex is Toast...

I'd noticed that too:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/01/facts-about-the-arctic-in-january-2019/#Vortex-Jan-13

Quote
Get Ready for a Scorcher

Time will tell!
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 13, 2019, 04:49:27 PM
The Vortex is Toast...

I'd noticed that too:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/01/facts-about-the-arctic-in-january-2019/#Vortex-Jan-13

Quote
Get Ready for a Scorcher

Time will tell!

Great read at the link, Jim.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on January 14, 2019, 07:48:34 AM
January 6-13.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Sterks on January 14, 2019, 08:00:03 AM
The combination of the strong Arctic HP and the Atlantic storm caused that receding of the ice in Barents. Negative AO, potentially very negative excursion predicted for next week, might keep ice edge expansion slow...
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on January 15, 2019, 07:08:55 AM
Article on the Polar Vortex split (http://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/latest-update-on-the-polar-vortex-split-much-colder-weather-will-overspread-western-half-of-europe-soon/?fbclid=IwAR3xvm6EpQ8Izk6H-8HHQWY6eT5UWAf_Gg9nkpVJE1SLGuwgctFqVnBJjN8) - Europe is in the freezer, but what will happen in the Arctic? I don't know if it's only an illusion but I tend to think that, just as there is a finite amount of warmth in the atmosphere at any given time, so there should also be a finite amount of "coldth" and if a big blob of coldness slips into Europe, another blob of warmth should be going to where that coldness is not. Or is that just rubbish?
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on January 15, 2019, 07:28:36 AM
Just bumped into another one (https://www.ilmeteo.it/notizie/meteo-pauroso-riscaldamento-del-polo-nord-ecco-perch-rischia-litalia-entro-fine-inverno-stratwarming), this time from the  main Italian forecaster. For those who don't read Italian, the main points are: "Polar vortex in pieces" is the caption plastered across the image, and further down: "Looking at the analysis map one notices that the coming days will see a very strong warming of the stratosphere, one of the strongest of the last 30 years, on par with or stronger than the one in 1985, in fact canging from -75 to -10 degrees, a crazy jump in temperatures of 65 degrees."
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on January 15, 2019, 12:21:58 PM
January 6-13.
Not sure what makes amsr2 detect large floes as lower concentration than the 'glue ice' in between. Snowdrifts?
With the cold wind, I'd expected the ice to cross the warm current to Svalbard again but no, it still melts.
amsr2-uhh, atlantic front, jan7-14
worldview, viirs, bt15n, atlantic front, jan15  https://go.nasa.gov/2FvSg66
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on January 15, 2019, 07:14:02 PM
Just bumped into another one (https://www.ilmeteo.it/notizie/meteo-pauroso-riscaldamento-del-polo-nord-ecco-perch-rischia-litalia-entro-fine-inverno-stratwarming), this time from the  main Italian forecaster. For those who don't read Italian, the main points are: "Polar vortex in pieces" is the caption plastered across the image, and further down: "Looking at the analysis map one notices that the coming days will see a very strong warming of the stratosphere, one of the strongest of the last 30 years, on par with or stronger than the one in 1985, in fact canging from -75 to -10 degrees, a crazy jump in temperatures of 65 degrees."
Google translate does very well with Italian. It seems the Italians are saying that the SSW that has just happened is likely to be followed with an even stronger one. I shall be keeping an eye on this from http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/ (a website of the Japan meteorology agency).

If this means the Polar Vortex falls to bits and Eastern USA, Central Europe and part of Siberia are to be clobbered over the next few weeks what does this mean for the Arctic for the remainder of this freezing season?

Current images attached.

ps: An example of the upside of globalisation. Scientists and Government agencies all over the world working together to provide the pieces of the jigsaw of the complete climate and weather fabric. Something that the Trumps of the world just do not comprehend.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on January 16, 2019, 07:12:29 AM

Google translate does very well with Italian. It seems the Italians are saying that the SSW that has just happened is likely to be followed with an even stronger one. I shall be keeping an eye on this from http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/ (a website of the Japan meteorology agency).

Well the Italians seem to be saying just that in this article from yesterday (https://www.ilmeteo.it/notizie/previsioni-meteo-vortice-polare-in-grave-crisi-imminenti-le-prime-conseguenze-su-europa-e-italia-ecco-quali). To quote: "In fact, a second important stratospheric warming has started on the Siberian area, causing a new weakening of the polar vortex, [which is] now in deep trouble".
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on January 16, 2019, 08:14:26 AM
Current ECMWF op run, which stretches out to Jan 26th, shows no northern blocking over the North Atlantic.

For western Europe, going by these charts, the impact of the late December SSW is quite minimal.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on January 16, 2019, 09:07:17 AM
Current ECMWF op run, which stretches out to Jan 26th, shows no northern blocking over the North Atlantic.

For western Europe, going by these charts, the impact of the late December SSW is quite minimal.
Not that I know the first thing about SSW but the weather in Europe has been pretty wild these last few weeks, with extreme cold reaching all the way down to North Africa, massive amounts of snow in the Alps and elsewhere in central/western Europe, while Iceland had temperatures that would have been more normal in summer than winter, with practically no snow (although that has changed drastically in the last few days).
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on January 16, 2019, 10:05:34 AM
I wrote about the upcoming SSW in December in this thread, you could see it very early on the GFS 10hpa temp charts by then, but it has already happened. Now, however, GFS shows the polar vortex gradually going back to normal by day 10 from now, no hit from Siberia, or anywhere else. The vortex seems to be centered above the CAA by day 10.

see it here:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=2&model=gfs&var=42&run=0&time=0&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref


I agree with Niall, no serious hit so far from the vortex collapse, no severe weather seen the next 10-14 days, at least not in Europe. There is however an outbreak of pretty cold air over NE USA starting T+4 / T+5.
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: binntho on January 16, 2019, 10:32:21 AM
Not sure what the Italians have been smoking - they talk about 10 degrees Centigrade below average after the 20th, and refer to GFS and ECMWF. I don't see it myself, although GFS has some pretty mean temperatures after the 26th but that's too far ahead to rely on.

But the website severe-weather.eu (http://www.severe-weather.eu/) is also predicting freezing temps (http://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/latest-update-on-the-polar-vortex-split-much-colder-weather-will-overspread-western-half-of-europe-soon/?fbclid=IwAR3xvm6EpQ8Izk6H-8HHQWY6eT5UWAf_Gg9nkpVJE1SLGuwgctFqVnBJjN8) after the 20th. Who to believe ...
Title: Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
Post by: colchonero on January 16, 2019, 11:23:04 AM