Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Off-topic => The politics => Topic started by: sidd on November 07, 2018, 08:51:12 PM

Title: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on November 07, 2018, 08:51:12 PM
Kick this off by noting the 2018 elections show republicans retaining rural strength, democrats increasing share of suburban vote, and holding the cities. Turnout up in both, people are voting.

https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/record-voter-turnout-in-2018-midterm-elections/

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: mostly_lurking on November 08, 2018, 09:03:23 AM
Wow, haven't even recovered from the 2018 thread  ;D
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: johnm33 on November 08, 2018, 10:35:21 AM
A bit off topic but quite instructive, Jesse Ventura's run for the governership of Minnesota 20 years ago. The Democrats clearly learned nothing from this.
https://www.rt.com/shows/watching-the-hawks/443301-jesse-ventura-governor-anniversary/
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on November 10, 2018, 01:01:41 AM
Knife fights in 2020:

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/415841-parties-start-gaming-out-2020-electoral-map

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on December 19, 2018, 11:03:41 PM
Kasich may not primary Trump:

" I can’t beat him [Trump] in a primary. "

https://www.cleveland.com/politics/2018/12/john-kasich-says-he-couldnt-beat-president-donald-trump-in-a-gop-primary.html

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Human Habitat Index on December 20, 2018, 02:20:20 AM
You're wasting your time.

The system is rigged.

We live under a world wide autocratic empire.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Hefaistos on December 20, 2018, 06:10:39 AM
...
We live under a world wide autocratic empire.

"An autocracy is a system of government in which supreme power is concentrated in the hands of one person, whose decisions are subject to neither external legal restraints nor regularized mechanisms of popular control"

Didn't know Trump was that powerful?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Human Habitat Index on December 20, 2018, 08:05:48 AM
...
We live under a world wide autocratic empire.

"An autocracy is a system of government in which supreme power is concentrated in the hands of one person, whose decisions are subject to neither external legal restraints nor regularized mechanisms of popular control"

Didn't know Trump was that powerful?

I'm talking about occult supranational powers that installed Trump, who is controlled opposition.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=irrbuaiUMVw
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on December 20, 2018, 08:11:40 AM
Clearly we need an "Occult Supranational Powers" thread.

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on December 20, 2018, 02:40:08 PM
Is it 1984?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Human Habitat Index on December 21, 2018, 01:34:34 AM
Is it 1984?

Yes
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on February 21, 2019, 05:33:56 AM
America's Finest News Source: ‘We Will Not Repeat The Mistakes Of The 2016 Election’

"the U.S. populace vowed Wednesday not to repeat the errors of 2016"

https://politics.theonion.com/we-will-not-repeat-the-mistakes-of-the-2016-election-1832763775

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on February 21, 2019, 04:31:54 PM
We shall see.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on February 27, 2019, 11:12:34 PM
Merry at the american conservative sees the possibility of a socialist president:

He doesn't like it of course:

"So it’s possible that the country could get, for the first time in its history, an experiment in socialist governance, mixed with a far-left push on high-voltage social issues such as immigration, political correctness, and racial politics. That would be a recipe for failure, leaving the country even more desperate for political leadership to restore stability."


https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/the-coming-socialist-president/

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: ritter on February 28, 2019, 01:24:41 AM
Merry at the american conservative sees the possibility of a socialist president:

Not a chance. There are none currently in the running and there are none with the necessary popularity (or age--looking at you, AOC). We'll get a Corporate Democrat at best. Most likely, we'll need to suffer Trump for another four years. The Dem candidates that have declared so far are incredibly weak and in no way represent socialist platforms.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on March 01, 2019, 09:09:10 AM
Money, money, money: how the sausage is made

“Everyone at this point is for no PAC money, no super PACs, no oil money, no Wall Street money, no foreign money, and everyone is for overturning Citizens United,”

“Bernie basically funded an entire campaign with online and low-dollar contributions,”

"Harris, Gillibrand, and Booker are taking a hybrid approach, constructing robust grassroots operations while still enjoying the backing of fat cats ..."

“The only reason anyone ever gets out of a presidential race is because they ran out of money”

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/02/elizabeth-warrens-rookie-mistake-foreshadows-a-2020-money-war

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on March 04, 2019, 08:40:14 AM
For what it's worth: gallup sez iberals outnumbered by conservatives

https://news.gallup.com/poll/247016/conservatives-greatly-outnumber-liberals-states.aspx

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: b_lumenkraft on March 04, 2019, 09:35:06 AM
Oh. My. Gosh.  :-[
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: b_lumenkraft on March 04, 2019, 11:50:31 AM
Oh. My. Gosh.  :-[

Welcome to reality. It is what it is.

My hope was the pendulum would swing a little all things considered.

I am socially naive i have to admit.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: SteveMDFP on March 04, 2019, 05:28:24 PM
For what it's worth: gallup sez iberals outnumbered by conservatives

https://news.gallup.com/poll/247016/conservatives-greatly-outnumber-liberals-states.aspx

sidd

It's deeply disheartening.  Of course, it's a global phenomenon, not US-specific.  Many, many places are turning conservative/neoliberal/authoritarian/nationalist. 
I suspect the greatest underlying cause is social media.
It's easy to spread fear/hate/xenophobia/nationalism in 124 characters at a time.  Progressive policies usually require deeper examination to support.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on March 21, 2019, 10:39:39 PM
Hopkins at consent factory predicts Muller report fizzle and Trump election narrative:

"The long-awaited Mueller report is due any day now, or so they keep telling us. Once it is delivered, and does not prove that Trump is a Russian intelligence asset, or that he personally conspired with Vladimir Putin to steal the presidency from Hillary Clinton, well, things are liable to get a bit awkward. "

" Trump is going to reach over, grab that report, roll it up tightly into a makeshift cudgel, and then beat the snot out of his opponents with it. He is going to explain to the American people that the Democrats, the corporate media, Hollywood, the liberal intelligentsia, and elements of the intelligence agencies conspired to try to force him out of office with an unprecedented propaganda campaign and a groundless special investigation. He is going to explain to the American people that Russiagate, from start to finish, was, in his words, a ridiculous “witch hunt,” a childish story based on nothing. Then he’s going to tell them a different story."

"That story goes a little something like this …"

"The American people did not care. They were so disgusted with being conned by arrogant, two-faced, establishment stooges like the Clintons, the Bushes, and Barack Obama that they chose to put Donald Trump in office, because, fuck it, what did they have to lose?"

"Every component of the ruling establishment (i.e., the government, the media, the intelligence agencies, the liberal intelligentsia, et al.) collaborated in an unprecedented effort to remove an American president from office based on a bunch of made-up horseshit … which kind of amounts to an attempted soft coup."

"This is the story Donald Trump is going to tell the American people."


https://consentfactory.org/2019/03/21/mueller-dammerung/

sidd

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on March 22, 2019, 12:16:11 AM
"Every component of the ruling establishment (i.e., the government, the media, the intelligence agencies, the liberal intelligentsia, et al.) collaborated in an unprecedented effort to remove an American president from office based on a bunch of made-up horseshit … which kind of amounts to an attempted soft coup."

"This is the story Donald Trump is going to tell the American people."

Which is what I feared from the very start. Russiagate could very well be the primary reason for a Trump re-election. The other problem is that it has been used to smear progressives (aka Putin puppets or Kremlinbots). It is basically a double whammy, making Trump stronger and weakening progressive populism, the only thing that can beat Trump.

What a mess...
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on March 22, 2019, 03:00:43 PM
Nobody needs to apologize, that's nonsense. But I do wonder whether they now see how monumentally stupid it has been strategy-wise to put all the eggs in the Russiagate-basket. It has been a huge waste of time and energy. But you know what? That was the whole idea. This was all planned. Distract and divide.

Even if all of the collusion-allegations were true, if the powers that be want Mueller to shelve his investigation, he will shelve it right away. Trump is great for concentrated wealth. The only way to beat him, is to keep repeating that he hasn't replaced the swamp, he is simply part of the swamp, and always has been.

Try to convince people of that now.  ::)

People need to stop uniting behind Corporate Democrats, and start uniting behind true populist progressives. It's the only way to beat Trump. Forget Obama, the Clintons, Pelosi, Schumer and all of the other neoliberal maniacs. That's the kind of politics that has gotten the US and the rest of the world in this frightful mess.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: prairiebotanist on March 22, 2019, 03:29:39 PM
As someone that works in conservation in the US and sees the on-the-ground consequences of policy and electoral outcomes every day, I just thought I'd pop in here and say you have absolutely no clue what you're talking about. Have a nice day.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: b_lumenkraft on March 22, 2019, 03:35:44 PM
How so prairiebotanist? Can you elaborate a little more, please? How do you mean "working in conservation"?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sedziobs on March 22, 2019, 03:38:05 PM
I'm sure that AbruptSLR, and Rob Dekker, and Martin Gisser, and Buddy, and sedziobs, and Susan Anderson, and Oren et al are all preparing their apology to you and to Jimmy Dore when the Mueller Report is finally tabled.  ;D

And their second apology if Trump gets re-elected in Nov 2020.
Huh? When did I ever say anything in support of Russiagate or the Mueller investigation?

This is the only time I remember even talking about Russia:
Yes, there are crazy redneck-type people in the US, but I don't believe this is a majority.
They're not, but workers who are opposed to higher taxes are the majority.  The backlash to Obamacare was not just rednecks.

I agree that Russia issues should be in the background.  I think I acknowledge the potential reality of those issues more than you do, but they're not related to the real problem.  Ousting Trump will not dissuade his voters, which is what needs to happen.  Focusing on popular issues can make that happen.

The problem with corporate media is the same as the problem with corporate anything: profit motive.  Viewers are drawn to tribalism, so there is an incentive to promote it.  The Russia stuff does exactly that.  It doesn't mean it's all made up, just that TV news has a higher incentive to talk about Russia than policy.
And in that same response I was trying to show that there is indeed a majority of "conservatives" (meaning opposition to government spending) in the US.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: ritter on March 22, 2019, 11:06:14 PM
"Every component of the ruling establishment (i.e., the government, the media, the intelligence agencies, the liberal intelligentsia, et al.) collaborated in an unprecedented effort to remove an American president from office based on a bunch of made-up horseshit … which kind of amounts to an attempted soft coup."

"This is the story Donald Trump is going to tell the American people."

Which is what I feared from the very start. Russiagate could very well be the primary reason for a Trump re-election. The other problem is that it has been used to smear progressives (aka Putin puppets or Kremlinbots). It is basically a double whammy, making Trump stronger and weakening progressive populism, the only thing that can beat Trump.

What a mess...

That pretty well sums it up. If there's nothing damning in the report, the Democratic party (mine) is going to look really bad and have one hell of a time in 2020.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on March 22, 2019, 11:10:06 PM
As someone that works in conservation in the US and sees the on-the-ground consequences of policy and electoral outcomes every day, I just thought I'd pop in here and say you have absolutely no clue what you're talking about.

Probably, but decades of neoliberalism and globalism hasn't been so great for 'on-the-ground consequences of policy and electoral outcomes every day' either, so you tell me what the best way to go is.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on March 23, 2019, 06:19:36 AM
Re: "This is the story Donald Trump is going to tell the American people."

Here it comes.

sidd

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on March 24, 2019, 09:26:49 PM
Cohen at counterpunch: democrats running on obama era policies will lose

"We need to remember the vacillation – and worse, the opportunism and corporatism. As well as cause and effect: that Obama’s tenure paved the way for the rise of Trump."

He refers to an article by Stoller in 2017 at wapo:

" the past eight years of policymaking have damaged Democrats at all levels. Recovering Democratic strength will require the party’s leaders to come to terms with what it has become — and the role Obama played in bringing it to this point."

"The resulting policy framework of Tim Geithner’s Treasury Department was, in effect, a wholesale attack on the American home (the main store of middle-class wealth) in favor of concentrated financial power. The second was the administration’s pro-monopoly policies, which crushed the rural areas that in 2016 lost voter turnout and swung to Donald Trump."

" Obama prioritized creditor rights, placing most of the burden on borrowers. This kept big banks functional and ensured that financiers would maintain their positions in the recovery. "

“We can either have a rational resolution to the foreclosure crisis, or we can preserve the capital structure of the banks. We can’t do both.”

" Obama’s administration let big-bank executives off the hook for their roles in the crisis. "

"Obama enabled and encouraged roughly 9 million foreclosures. This was Geithner’s explicit policy at Treasury. "

"When Democratic leaders don’t protect the people, the people get poorer, they get angry, and more of them die."

"Though 58 percent of Americans were in favor of government action to halt foreclosures, Obama’s administration balked. And voters noticed."

" the reality is that the Democratic Party has been slipping away from the working class for some time, and Obama’s presidency hastened rather than reversed that departure."

Stoller's article is at:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2017/01/12/democrats-cant-win-until-they-recognize-how-bad-obamas-financial-policies-were/

Cohen continues:

"Like Emanuel, Obama’s next two chiefs of staff also came out of big finance: William Daley from JP Morgan Chase and Jacob Lew from Citigroup."

"Yes, Obama faced intense Republican obstruction in Congress. But it wasn’t Mitch McConnell who stacked the Obama administration with corporatist appointees and policies."

"The last two Democratic presidents gave “hope” a bad name."

"To win back these voters – and to inspire voters of color and youth – will require a Democratic nominee who is a forward-looking, progressive populist."

"While it’s true that “any Democrat is better than Trump,” reverting back to the Obama era is a return to a status quo that stopped working for millions of voters long ago."

Read the whole thing:

https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/03/22/lets-not-restore-or-mythologize-obama/

sidd

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on March 25, 2019, 06:27:22 AM
We know some of the main themes from Trump on this campaign : No Collusion ! Witch Hunt ! Fake News ! ...

As Taibbi has alluded, now Trump could shoot someone on live TV and half the country wouldn't believe it. The media have lost whatever shreds of credibility they retained after WMD. The only reason people watch em is to laugh at them. We live in a world where the newschannels are comedy, and even the comedy channels have better news.

As Hopkins wrote:

"Trump is going to reach over, grab that report, roll it up tightly into a makeshift cudgel, and then beat the snot out of his opponents with it."

2020 looks bad for the democrats. They have given Trump a huge campaign weapon. Now the battle is truly uphill. If they beat the drums about ongoing investigations, half the country will tune em out, they will waste more time, energy, money. You ain't gonna get him on Russia. Mebbe about finances, but looks like democratic investigations of anything trump related will founder in public eye. And time is running out. Mueller spent a couple years, tens of millions, came up short. Ain't gonna get anything definitive before the election, and worse, now nobody believes you anyway.

Biden will kill the democrats. Bernie is probably the best chance, he can mobilize more votes than anyone else on that bus. I think he should do a repeat, like with the Hilary emails: I don't wanna talk about it. Do the same with Russiagate: Don't wanna talk about Russia-Trump, lets talk about poor people getting screwed.

Get real. Talk about money and why so many don't have any. And go with grassroots media because the major channels have no credibility left. The only way to beat Trump is to grab that populist flag from him.

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: b_lumenkraft on March 25, 2019, 07:05:50 AM
Noam Chomsky on Trump-Russia Collusion

In March 2019, weeks before the Mueller Report was finalized, acclaimed scholar and "Manufacturing Consent" author Noam Chomsky explained in an interview why accusations of Russian meddling and Trump-Russia collusion were "a joke."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TtqWezfIhMY
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on April 05, 2019, 12:39:59 AM
Party Time ! A million of them

"More than 1 million people have signed up to volunteer for his campaign, aides said, and the Sanders team will ask them Wednesday to host house parties across the country on April 27 ..."

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/03/bernie-sanders-2020-volunteers-1246524

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2314 on April 05, 2019, 02:29:41 AM
Party Time ! A million of them

"More than 1 million people have signed up to volunteer for his campaign, aides said, and the Sanders team will ask them Wednesday to host house parties across the country on April 27 ..."

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/03/bernie-sanders-2020-volunteers-1246524

sidd
That is disturbing. If Trump had asked his supporters to host "house parties" there would be riots on the street from the left. Bernie will not win, he is an insane lunatic, and giving him the nomination is an excellent way to ensure Trump sweeps with 350+ electoral votes.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: b_lumenkraft on April 05, 2019, 07:51:10 AM
If Trump had asked his supporters to host "house parties" there would be riots on the street

WTF? How in hell do you come to this conclusion?

and giving him the nomination is an excellent way to ensure Trump sweeps with 350+ electoral votes.

This might be the worst political analysis i've read in my life.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2314 on April 05, 2019, 09:15:14 AM
If Trump had asked his supporters to host "house parties" there would be riots on the street

WTF? How in hell do you come to this conclusion?

and giving him the nomination is an excellent way to ensure Trump sweeps with 350+ electoral votes.

This might be the worst political analysis i've read in my life.
I see the action as community infiltration of a political party. Conducting active gatherings is a great way to determine who is or is not with you in your neighborhood. It is divisive and antagonistic and a prelude to "us vs. them".

You are free to disagree with my analysis. I thought Trump was going to win in 2016 and I think that he is going to win again in 2020 unless the US market tanks before then and I think that is unlikely (and even if it did I'd give him 50/50 odds of winning again).

Bernie's message will not play with the majority of Americans and if he is the D nominee the media is going to go into overdrive replaying whatever Trump is saying (Bernie has not mastered this technique). The media got him elected in 2016 and they will do the same in 2020. It doesn't matter what they are screeching after "Trump," all that matters is that they are blaring "TRUMP".

The trade war with China is a tool that can be used to prop up the market should signs of weakness begin to become more discussed. This may result in an eventual correction that will be worse had it occurred earlier, but I think he has enough political leverage to keep stocks current levels sustained through November of 2020. If recession does not occur before then, it will by Jan 2021 (IMO). November 2020 is 18 months post-current yield curve inversion which puts it squarely in the middle of when recessions have occurred after previous inversions (12-24 months).

Finally, if you think the market would tolerate a Bernie presidency, you are deranged. Bernie has made it his MO to attack corporate America. The media is going to fire against him on all cylinders (i.e. simply repeating Trump's name incessantly and more than Bernie's).

The ONLY way a Democrat stands a chance in November 2020 is if the market tanks before then. It's the economy, stupid.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: b_lumenkraft on April 05, 2019, 10:14:42 AM
I see the action as community infiltration of a political party.

Wow! Infiltration, eh? WOW!
Only, it's not infiltration. It's called grassroots movement. It's a political process and is the most normal thing. You seeing this as infiltration leaves me speechless. This anti-democratic bullshit smear makes me sick.

You are free to disagree with my analysis.

It's about voter turnout. If the Dems are able to bring minorities and young people to vote for them, they will win. A centrist candidate will not activate those voters. They'll stay at home as they did in 2016 when there was no candidate for them. Bernie is the candidate that makes them vote.

Bernie's message will not play with the majority of Americans

The majority of Americans vote along their partisan lines.  The people who voted for the orange fart last time around will vote orange fart in 2020 again.  You don't win an election by flipping those. They are vastly unflippable. You need to activate new voters if you want to win. And frankly, any candidate who is not a Hillary type (centrist/non-progressive) will bring more Dems to the voting booth than in 2016.

Your remarks on the economic framework are all speculation, so i wouldn't go into that.

Finally, if you think the market would tolerate a Bernie presidency, you are deranged.

'the markets' needs to tolerate a candidate for them to get elected?

Guess what! Changing this is what Bernies grassroots movement is about to do!
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on April 09, 2019, 10:11:44 PM
Sjursen warns democrats: run on issues, not russia

"they’ve handed a massive political win to their nemesis"

" what the two-year failed Mueller crusade did do was expose the cynicism of the establishment Democrats. For the impeachment scheme to work, liberal elites needed you to believe something far greater than Trump collusion. Specifically that Russia – Reagan’s “evil empire” reborn – and its authoritarian leader, Vladimir Putin, are monsters bent on world domination, are existential threats to the U.S. and the American way of life. And boy did they sell it! "

"They’re stuck on Cold War language and a Cold War playbook. "

"Trump has often been right to oppose escalation and seek détente with Russia. "

" just because you hate Trump and Trump seems to admire Putin, that doesn’t mean Russia is evil, bent on world conquest, or a vital national security threat. It just means you hate Trump, obsessively, to your own and your party’s detriment."

"Go ahead and run against Trump and not for something in 2020 – and I’ll see you at The Donald’s second inaugural address!"

https://original.antiwar.com/Danny_Sjursen/2019/04/08/america-and-russia-the-tale-of-the-tape/

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Alexander555 on April 09, 2019, 11:05:22 PM
And what are the democrats going to do for these minorities and young voters ?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on April 10, 2019, 12:00:05 AM
And what are the democrats going to do for these minorities and young voters ?

The same thing they have always find - lip service.  Why change a good thing?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: b_lumenkraft on April 10, 2019, 11:20:08 AM
And what are the democrats going to do for these minorities and young voters ?

Which one?

I was talking about Bernie and he is pretty blatant about what he wants to do for those groups.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCH1dpzjCEiGAt8CXkryhkZg/videos
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 10, 2019, 09:37:34 PM
Unless a better pro-life candidate runs, I will hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Climate change is the second most important issue today...abortion is the first.
And if you feel upset by this post, you have to understand why millions of voters like me voted for the orange toupee.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: magnamentis on April 10, 2019, 09:49:55 PM
Unless a better pro-life candidate runs, I will hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Climate change is the second most important issue today...abortion is the first.
And if you feel upset by this post, you have to understand why millions of voters like me voted for the orange toupee.

it's obvious, already unmasked, hope forum gov will soon get the message
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: b_lumenkraft on April 11, 2019, 08:37:40 AM
why get upset about that?

I reject any kind of law that developed from religious beliefs. A government must be secular, period.

So yes, i'm getting very upset when religious fundamentalists try to impose their rules on everyone.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: b_lumenkraft on April 11, 2019, 09:03:01 AM
You have a lot of laws to reject then. Almost all of them. ;)

I wouldn't say almost all of them. Most laws can be argued for with reason and the categoric imperative, so these are out of the picture. But yeah, a lot of laws should be rethought with a secular mindset.

Quote
How much have you studied US history?

A fair share i guess.

Quote
So first get used it.

Hell no! I'm a Kantian. Getting used to it would mean to abandon my beliefs system.

Quote
Second, don't get mad, or lose your cool, get even! (there is no point arguing with them)

Wise words. :)

Quote
Don't forget too that Abolition of Slavery was driven home by "religious fundamentalists" more or less.

Are you implying non-religious people support slavery?? (just kidding Lurk  :P )
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: gerontocrat on April 11, 2019, 09:55:44 AM

The Age of Enlightenment rolls on like a glacier removing all before it. :)
The glaciers are melting.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: b_lumenkraft on April 11, 2019, 10:03:00 AM

The Age of Enlightenment rolls on like a glacier removing all before it. :)
The glaciers are melting.

Stop punching my belly Gerontocrat! ;)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 11, 2019, 01:06:51 PM
I'm not bothered by Tasmania's law you mention, Lurk.
I am bothered by America allowing killing about a million people a year just because they are less than nine months old and inconvenient.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on April 11, 2019, 04:39:58 PM
Quote
The "Abolition of Abortion in Texas Act" would classify abortion as murder "regardless of any contrary federal law, executive order, or court decision,"
[emphasis added]
Pretty brazen, isn't it, for a law (an intended law at this point) to declare courts do not have the power to determine constitutionality?   At least this part of the Act would surely be determined unconstitutional.  Those three words makes me think the whole purpose of the drafted Act is to score political points and not get enacted.

Also, as many fertilized eggs die young naturally (https://ask.metafilter.com/203529/What-of-fertilized-human-eggs-die), would this be manslaughter? ("You know, Your Honor, she sneezed, and should be held responsible for her actions.")
Quote
… researchers have estimated that 40 to 65 percent of conceptions end in miscarriages. And more than half of those occur so early that pregnancy is not even suspected yet (miscarriages that happen in the first few weeks of pregnancy are called chemical pregnancies or blighted ovums — meaning that the fertilized egg failed to implant or develop for unknown reasons).
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on April 12, 2019, 02:23:18 AM
America's Finest News Source:  Mike Pence, Pete Buttigieg Locked In Battle Of Prayers

"a lightning bolt blasted off the top of the Washington Monument"

"causing the sky to turn black, the water in the Reflecting Pool to part ... the temperature dropped and the earth burst open below them, witnesses confirmed that Buttigieg’s eyes turned red ..."

"Pence and Buttigieg reportedly fused into a single, blindingly white light as countless angels swirled around them"

https://politics.theonion.com/lightning-bolt-blasts-washington-monument-as-mike-pence-1833978821

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on April 12, 2019, 06:37:08 AM
Right on cue: Ohio gov DeWine signs nations most restrictive abortion law

"ban abortions after a fetal heartbeat is detected and prosecute doctors who perform them anyway. A fetal heartbeat can be detected as early as six weeks into a woman's pregnancy, which can be before a woman finds out she's pregnant."

"an exception to save the life of the woman but no exception for rape or incest "

Even Kasich wouldn't: "Former Gov. John Kasich vetoed the abortion ban twice"

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/04/11/ohio-governor-expected-sign-heartbeat-abortion-bill/3437747002/

DeWine never met a woman's body he didn't wanna control. I been watching him forawhile, there were disturbing signs pretty early in his career.

This will go to the Supremes, lets see if Roe vs Wade stands. A lot of women whom I know seriously think it might be overturned. The younger ones are considering emigration, the older are advising their daughters to do so.

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: b_lumenkraft on April 12, 2019, 09:12:19 AM
A video every American should watch!

The Founding Fathers Were Progressive

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxqBNP1IY58
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: ASILurker on April 12, 2019, 10:15:32 AM
So I can expect Rachel Maddow to presenting the same kind of historical information sometime soon, and cheering on AOC, Sanders and Gabbard. LOL

OK may I say this is all old news, and therein lays the problem doesn't it. For Adam Smith the libertarian neo-liberal hero was also a rabid Progressive most keen on appropriate Regulation in economic life, progressive taxation, social goods, and income / wealth equality sharing the fruits of the land of the nation as far is feasible by Principle.

His so-called clarion cry of "the invisible hand of the market" was used twice in all his writings, and that's it. The key being "AS IF" meaning there really is no invisible hand it all depends on how the SYSTEM is constructed, and then fair and equitable markets, accessible by all people and not only the few, could operate "as if" there was this invisible hand at work ... even though there isn't!!! Those "free markets" were in fact being designed on Principles with particular INTENT to achieve a Just Ends, and not the winner take all edict! 

Good luck educating the neo-liberal cultists resident here their whole Faith is founded upon lies and manipulations. Money alone can afford high levels of Propaganda to win the day. :)

AS an add-on people should be mindful of two things. Most of the founding fathers and early politicians, the best among them, were first and foremost Freemasons .. and not fundamentalist Christians. The Constitution etc was primarily based on sound centuries old universal Freemason Principles - it's as clear as day. They played the long game and were pragmatic folks. But do not tell the Baptists that!

Secondly, it;s strangely hypocritical of all Americans and their politicians who once illegally engaging in War Crimes, would then demand that before handing over Iraq to her people that they must first of all write a new Democratic Constitution following the principles of the Rule of Law and the Separation of Powers and then demand have it Voted upon by all the people of age in the country.

It's odd because at no time has their been held a national Vote by the People on the US Constitution. Not once, not ever.

Furthermore not once has there been a popular Vote by the People to Amend said Constitution. 

eg the American people did NOT vote to end slavery by validating the 16th Amendment. The Politicians did that, not the People en mass by a national Majority of people and a Majority of States. No one Voted to limit Presidential terms to two. An egregious imposition upon political freedom, an annulment of basic Human Rights, plus anti-democratic and prima facie Unconstitutional in and of itself.

Ah, but the poor people have been conned yet again and believe this is brilliant, so "rational and ethical and just" when it is the complete opposite of those things.

So given the American people have never not once ever been able to Vote for or against their Constitution and it's Amendments, then how on earth can they dare claim to be a Government of The People, for the People and by the People?

When almost every person in every other nation on this earth posses such rights and privileges?

The existing Constitution and it's system of Governance and Electoral matters enshrined in the Constitution are one of the key reasons why America is a shit show today.

It's not going to improve. Even if a Bernie sanders became President it will not and cannot improve nor change course. Despite a few exceptions the entire nation is both ignorant and asleep. For that is the only place where one can see the American Dream.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: b_lumenkraft on April 12, 2019, 10:23:30 AM
Adam Smith the libertarian neo-liberal hero was also a rapid Progressive

Correct!

What tells us that? Neo-liberals don't read books (well at least not Wealth of Nations). If they would they'd know about this fact.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: gerontocrat on April 12, 2019, 11:38:18 AM
I was taught that the Founding Fathers when considering the Constitution considered the role of Monarchs and the role of religion in propping up Monarchies, especially the final years of the Monarchy and the influence of the Catholic hierarchy in France before the French Revolution.
(The argument with perfidious Albion and King George was very much more about how the colonists were denied the basic liberties enjoyed by the average Brit in the UK). So having booted out the Brits they were looking for safeguards to prevent the future rise of either a secular or religious dictatorship.

Unfortunately, Congress has given away vast powers to the Executive, and religion has crept** into the infrastructure, to the extent that the Texas legislature is now considering a bill to make abortion the crime of homicide. And, of course, "the invisible hand of the free market" largely determines who is elected, who is not, who is bought and who is sold. (This includes senior officials - even Eisenhower warned against the military-industrial complex.)

The UK will do its best to catch up - though it will be a really cheap and nasty version.

When I was a young man, the USA was the place I wanted to be, Vietnam, Civil Rights and all. Now ?  No, thankyou.
_________________________________________________________________
**"In God We Trust" first appeared on the two-cent piece in 1864 and has appeared on paper currency since 1957. A law passed in a Joint Resolution by the 84th Congress (P.L. 84-140) and approved by President Dwight Eisenhower on July 30, 1956, declared "In God We Trust" must appear on American currency.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on April 12, 2019, 01:52:57 PM




... the word God doesn't appear
anywhere in the US Constitution and
the only references to religion in the
Constitution are actually to limit
religions influence on the government.


The First Amendment as many of you know
guarantees that quote "Congress shall
make no law respecting an establishment
of religion or prohibiting the free exercise
thereof."


Not quite.  It was intended to prevent the government from imposing any particular religious belief on the people.  It would be virtually impossible to remove religious influences completely, because many of those in power have certain beliefs that influence their thinking.  The central idea was not to stem these ideas, but rather to prevent one person's beliefs from becoming the law of the land (i.e. many European nations).  The idea was to allow any individual to practice their own religion freely, within repercussion from the state.  The separation, which Thomas Jefferson stated, was intended to proceed in one direction (from the central government to the people).  The people would always be able to mold the government, as long as they refrained from imposing certain beliefs on others.  Consequently, any religious figure could seek public office.  There is no litmus test, except that imposed by the voters. 

Regarding the founding fathers, several were deists.  However, most were Christian.  Very few were Catholic or Baptist.  Indeed, it was the Baptists who prompted Jefferson to make his famous declaration about the separation, as they feared that their religion would be discriminated against in the nearly formed nation. 
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: b_lumenkraft on April 12, 2019, 02:16:58 PM

prevent the government from imposing any particular religious belief
vs.
are actually to limit religious influence on the government

I don't follow Kat. What's the difference? IMHO those both describe the word 'secularism'.

I mean, a religious politician can indeed propose a secular law. It might be influenced by religious beliefs, but if it's outcome is secular, i don't see how they contradict.

For example, outlawing thievery is stated in the Bible, but it 's also clearly a result of the categoric imperative.

Of course, once you have freedom of religion, you will also have religious people in the government.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on April 12, 2019, 03:38:52 PM

prevent the government from imposing any particular religious belief
vs.
are actually to limit religious influence on the government

I don't follow Kat. What's the difference? IMHO those both describe the word 'secularism'.

I mean, a religious politician can indeed propose a secular law. It might be influenced by religious beliefs, but if it's outcome is secular, i don't see how they contradict.

For example, outlawing thievery is stated in the Bible, but it 's also clearly a result of the categoric imperative.

Of course, once you have freedom of religion, you will also have religious people in the government.

It is not a matter of contradiction.  Rather, the wall of separation is one way, and rather explicit.  Congress shall make no law ...  Throughout the years, many people have tried to expand this to all other areas of government.  Sometimes they have been successful, other times not.   It depends on how the courts feel at the time.

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: ASILurker on April 14, 2019, 03:06:05 PM
There's no room for racism or classism in these matters that can lead to a good outcome. Peace must be born of Justice. Justice can only come by true Fraternity, in a broad sense of Brotherhood. Where my country is the world; and my fellow citizens are all humankind.

Enlightened souls have long been calling to remove the causes of War; all selfish seeking; all aggression by any nation upon the rights of others must cease. Peace can only come from the growth of wisdom, by enlightenment in the foundation principles of justice, love and truth.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: b_lumenkraft on April 15, 2019, 10:58:21 AM
I had a funny thought.

Not so funny at all. Americans are made believe the Russian interference in the 2016 US elections was something extraordinary. In fact, it's the most normal thing in the world. It has happened all the time throughout history.

Let's look into the history books and see what Trump did to support Netanyahu for example. Oh wait, this is not yet printed. But the internet has it.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on April 15, 2019, 11:50:40 PM
Trump outraises everybody:

"raised more than $30 million in the first quarter of 2019, edging out his top two Democratic rivals combined"

" nearly 99% of its donations were of $200 or less, with an average donation of $34.26."

"Together, the Trump entities have raised a combined $165.5 million "

"more than 1 million new online donors since Trump's inauguration"

https://news.yahoo.com/apnewsbreak-trump-campaign-report-raising-30-million-230159575--election.html

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on April 16, 2019, 12:04:35 AM
My goodness, is this real or fake news?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2314 on April 16, 2019, 12:45:22 AM
My goodness, is this real or fake news?
Unless the stock market crashes he is going to win easily in 2020 (IMO). The perceived state of the economy is literally all that matters.

If it crashes, Buttigieg could win, and handily.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on April 16, 2019, 12:55:11 AM
My goodness, is this real or fake news?
Unless the stock market crashes he is going to win easily in 2020 (IMO). The perceived state of the economy is literally all that matters.

If it crashes, Buttigieg could win, and handily.

I fear you are correct.  Biden probably has the best chance to dethrone him, but many in the party are hell bent on stopping him.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: b_lumenkraft on April 16, 2019, 08:20:16 AM
This Emerson poll paints a different picture.

Bernie Sanders Pulling Ahead 2020 Democratic Primary Poll Nationally - Pete Buttigieg Surging

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vY1rNXU9YsM&t=0s
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: b_lumenkraft on April 16, 2019, 08:48:58 AM
Bret Baier just polled the Bernie Town Hall audience who would be willing to switch to #MedicareForAll. It backfired spectacularly.

Link >> https://twitter.com/JordanUhl/status/1117924843746361345
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on April 16, 2019, 10:10:05 AM
Well, hello there: repub primary challenge for trump

"Former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld has become the first Republican to challenge Mr Trump in 2020."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47943555

I don't think the guy has a chance, Kasich had a better one but he already disclaimed.

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: b_lumenkraft on April 16, 2019, 12:40:50 PM
 :)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on April 16, 2019, 02:21:08 PM
This Emerson poll paints a different picture.


The Emerson poll is the one outlier; it consistently has Sanders outperforming Biden.  The Morning consult pols over the past month have Biden leading by 8-10 pts.  CNN and Fox News both had Biden ahead by 8.  Quinnipiac showed a 10 pt Biden advantage.  The recent Hill/Harris poll came with the biggest lead for Biden at 17!  All in all, Biden is still the front runner.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: b_lumenkraft on April 16, 2019, 02:29:13 PM
Kat, do you happen to know the FoxNews numbers on Biden/Trump?

(if they exist that is, couldn't find this poll)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on April 16, 2019, 11:13:22 PM
Sanders town hall on Fox: audience cheers for sanders health plan

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bernie-sanders-takes-stage-at-fox-news-town-hall-after-emerging-as-apparent-dem-frontrunner

youtube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4ozAACcc8I

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSnxuzDm7C0

Well, well, well. Into the lions den, but the lions were pussycats. The democrats attack him worse than fox does.

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 17, 2019, 04:52:15 AM
Call for climate change only Democrat primary debate:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/jay-inslee-calls-for-a-climate-change-only-democratic-primary-debate
Sign the petition for it here:
https://www.change.org/p/democratic-national-committee-have-a-climate-debate-in-the-2020-democratic-primary?recruiter=952457336&utm_source=share_petition&utm_medium=copylink&utm_campaign=share_petition&use_react=false


Se. Warren says she would ban fossil fuel production on Federal land:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/15/elizabeth-warren-proposes-oil-and-gas-drilling-ban-on-federal-lands.html
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on April 17, 2019, 02:26:05 PM
Kat, do you happen to know the FoxNews numbers on Biden/Trump?

(if they exist that is, couldn't find this poll)

Yes.  Follow this link:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-sanders-top-democratic-preference
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: b_lumenkraft on April 17, 2019, 02:59:00 PM
...this link:

Thank you Kat.

Quote
Sanders has a 3-point edge over the president (44-41 percent), but Biden performs best, topping Trump by 7 points (47-40 percent).

If only Biden was running.

Why isn't he (so far) though? Any theories?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on April 17, 2019, 03:56:50 PM
...this link:

Thank you Kat.

Quote
Sanders has a 3-point edge over the president (44-41 percent), but Biden performs best, topping Trump by 7 points (47-40 percent).

If only Biden was running.

Why isn't he (so far) though? Any theories?

My guess is, that after all the other candidates (except for Sanders) crash and burn, the party will come running to Biden.  He will ride in on his white horse, in an attempt to save the election.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on April 17, 2019, 07:57:02 PM
If only Biden was running.

Why isn't he (so far) though? Any theories?

I agree with Kat that Biden wants it to be given to him, because he's so special.

But as Kyle Kulinski says: Just as with Clinton, as soon as he starts talking at rallies, etc., his numbers will go down inevitably. That's because he's a neoliberal, a Republican in Democrat's clothing, and people see through it.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: b_lumenkraft on April 17, 2019, 08:13:41 PM
and people see through it

I sure hope so.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: ritter on April 17, 2019, 10:32:21 PM
Biden is a solid choice if you want to ensure we don't progress beyond where we were under Obama and are only concerned with potentially beating Trump. Frankly, I'm not content with that and don't think Trump will lose based on the current pool of candidates, as much as I'd like to be wrong on that. It's really hard to get moderates out to vote for somebody when that somebody isn't inspiring or working for them.

Sanders might manage it if enough people are truly concerned about healthcare costs and higher education access, but a lot of them will have to look through the media "socialism" haze to get there.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on April 17, 2019, 10:38:53 PM
Sanders might manage it if enough people are truly concerned about healthcare costs and higher education access, but a lot of them will have to look through the media "socialism" haze to get there.

Fox let Sanders explain what socialism is. I'm not sure if this is what Fox envisaged:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzL9wCnoA8o

At the same time, I'm sure that the people at Fox knew what to expect. So, I have no idea why they did this.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: ritter on April 17, 2019, 11:48:47 PM
At the same time, I'm sure that the people at Fox knew what to expect. So, I have no idea why they did this.

Maybe they grow tired of cheer leading for Trump? One can dream...
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: gerontocrat on April 18, 2019, 03:27:15 AM
At the same time, I'm sure that the people at Fox knew what to expect. So, I have no idea why they did this.

Maybe they grow tired of cheer leading for Trump? One can dream...
Fox reminding Trump on who is the real boss?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on April 18, 2019, 03:38:27 AM
Socialism is great, but scale matters and homogeneity matter A LOT. A small nation of people who look and think alike can make socialism work very very well. There are no counter-examples.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2314 on April 18, 2019, 04:09:35 AM
At the same time, I'm sure that the people at Fox knew what to expect. So, I have no idea why they did this.

Maybe they grow tired of cheer leading for Trump? One can dream...
Fox reminding Trump on who is the real boss?
I think it's more like it doesn't matter what Bernie says because their entire viewing audience will vote Trump regardless.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: b_lumenkraft on April 18, 2019, 06:30:22 AM
I think it's more like it doesn't matter what Bernie says because their entire viewing audience will vote Trump regardless.

Any poll showing this? Or is this one of your 'political analysis' '.

Because last FoxNews poll i saw they had Trump losing against Bernie.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: colchonero on April 18, 2019, 08:58:43 AM
I think it's more like it doesn't matter what Bernie says because their entire viewing audience will vote Trump regardless.

Any poll showing this? Or is this one of your 'political analysis' '.

Because last FoxNews poll i saw they had Trump losing against Bernie.

It is a poll done by Fox News,like CNN or ABC or whatever. That does not mean they poll their audience only. And bbr was talking about Fox News audience, not whole America.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: b_lumenkraft on April 18, 2019, 09:18:00 AM
It is a poll done by Fox News,like CNN or ABC or whatever. That does not mean they poll their audience only.

Honestly, do you think any poll, regardless of who is polling, is neutral?

And do you also think the "entire viewing audience" votes for Trump? As in 100%?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on April 18, 2019, 09:45:16 AM
I think it's more like it doesn't matter what Bernie says because their entire viewing audience will vote Trump regardless.

It all depends on whether people associate Trump with the swamp, or whether they believe the lie that he is some outsider upsetting the establishment. That's what makes Russiagate so monumentally stupid, but it was probably planned that way. The goal is to keep real progressives out.

I think that if Sanders can't be intimidated or co-opted to play along, they will cheat him again.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 18, 2019, 05:36:37 PM
Elizabeth Warren pressures Pentagon to take AGW in account:
https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2019/04/elizabeth-warren-climate-change-military-pentagon-donald-trump/

18 Democratic candidates respond to climate survey:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/18/us/politics/climate-change-2020-democratic-candidates.html?module=inline
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ken Feldman on April 19, 2019, 07:41:55 PM
Bernie Sanders calls for an end to fossil fuels.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/19/bernie-sanders-calls-for-an-end-to-fossil-fuels/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/19/bernie-sanders-calls-for-an-end-to-fossil-fuels/)

Quote
This week, Sanders made a rather stunning proposal on behalf of himself and his supporters: “We say to Donald Trump and the fossil fuel industry that climate change is not a hoax but is an existential threat to our country and the entire planet — and we intend to transform our energy system away from fossil fuel and into energy efficiency and sustainable energy and, in the process, create millions of good paying jobs. All of us have a moral responsibility to make certain that the planet we leave to our children and grandchildren is healthy and habitable.” If you go to BernieSanders.com, you will see his entire position on climate change:

Climate change is the single greatest threat facing our planet. Yet the giant, multi-national fossil fuel corporations have spent hundreds of millions of dollars furthering their greed and protecting their profits at the expense of our climate and our future.

The recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made it clear that if we fail to substantially cut the amount of carbon in our atmosphere in under 11 years, the human, environmental, and economic costs will be severe and irreversible.

Climate change is not a problem we will have to worry about 50 years from now. Overwhelming scientific consensus indicates that climate change is already exacerbating extreme weather events like heat waves, wildfires, droughts, floods, and hurricanes. Climate change is already negatively impacting real estate values due to sea level rise and global agriculture and food security through changing water availability, flooding, and drought.

These trends will only continue as global temperatures and sea levels continue to rise. We need a president –Bernie Sanders — who understands that climate change is real and an existential threat to our country and the entire planet. When we are in the White House, we will:
◾Pass a Green New Deal to save American families money and generate millions of jobs by transforming our energy system away from fossil fuels to 100% energy efficiency and sustainable energy. A Green New Deal will protect workers and the communities in which they live to ensure a transition to family-sustaining wage, union jobs.
◾Invest in infrastructure and programs to protect the frontline communities most vulnerable to extreme climate impacts like wildfires, sea level rise, drought, floods, and extreme weather like hurricanes.
◾Reduce carbon pollution emissions from our transportation system by building out high-speed passenger rail, electric vehicles, and public transit.
◾Ban fracking and new fossil fuel infrastructure and keep oil, gas, and coal in the ground by banning fossil fuel leases on public lands.
◾End exports of coal, natural gas, and crude oil.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on April 19, 2019, 09:20:10 PM
Buchanan at antiwar: "Trump may have just ceded the peace issue"

"Does Trump really want to go into 2020 as a war party president? "

" in 2016, Trump ran as a different kind of Republican, an opponent of the Iraq War and an anti-interventionist who wanted to get along with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and get out of these Middle East wars. "

"The center of gravity of U.S. politics is shifting toward the Trump position of 2016. And the anti-interventionist wing of the GOP is growing."

"Prediction: By the primaries of 2020, foreign policy will be front and center, and the Democratic Party will have captured the "no-more-wars" political high ground that Candidate Donald Trump occupied in 2016."

https://original.antiwar.com/buchanan/2019/04/18/is-bernie-stealing-trumps-no-more-wars-issue/

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on April 21, 2019, 09:39:46 PM
Rove on Bernie: he can beat trump

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/4/20/18508880/karl-rove-bernie-sanders-could-beat-donald-trump-in-2020

not that i trust rove at all ...

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 22, 2019, 01:32:51 PM
I saw a commercial awhile ago that showed why AGW is not deciding elections in this country.
It was a montage of elderly "talking heads":
"Global Warming is a hoax."
"I like warming...I get cold at night."
"It's sunspots."
"Global warming is good for plants."
then it showed those talking heads again:
"I vote."
"I vote."
"I vote."
"I vote."
I would almost put this in the humor thread, except it is not funny.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on August 20, 2019, 10:24:02 PM
Taibbi at rollingstone fears Trump trimphant in 2020:

"Donald Trump doesn’t visit Middle America. He descends upon it. His rallies are awesome spectacles. Gawkers come down from the hills."

"Trump has already staked a claim to a role in history usually reserved for hereditary monarchs at the end of a line of inbreeding"

"Much of America loves its Mad King"

"Royal lunacy is traditionally a secret, but in Twitter-age America it’s a shared national experience. We are all somersaulting down and out the sanity chute. The astonishing thing about Trump is that he wasn’t foisted on us by a council of Bourbons, or by succession law. We elected the man, and are poised to do it again."

"[Democrats] remain ineffective as anything but a punchline to the Trump story."

"This is our penance for turning the presidential campaign into a bread-and-circus entertainment. Middle Americans got so used to getting nothing out of elections, they started treating national politics for what it had become to them, a distant, pretentious sitcom."

"Now they’re writing their own script. They can’t arrange for Jake Tapper to be fed to a shark, so they’ll settle for rolling Donald Trump into Washington. It’s hard to see right now, it being the end of our society and all, but the situation is not without humor ... Can America shoot itself in the head a second time? It sounds, appropriately enough, like the premise of a Trump TV show."

"A lot of candidates scan crowds like they’re looking for the sniper, but Trump acts like he’s ready for a mass frottage session."

" His hair has visibly yellowed since 2016. It’s an amazing, unnatural color, like he was electrocuted in French’s mustard. His neckless physique is likewise a wonder. He looks like he ate Nancy Pelosi."

" Trump stops and does his trademark stump flourish, turning sideways to flash his iguanoid profile before stalking around the lectern in resplendent, obese glory, inviting all to Get a load of me!"

"The news media rate somewhere between herpes and ISIS in much of the country. "

"The average American likes meat, sports, money, porn, cars, cartoons, and shopping. Less popular: socialism, privilege-checking, and the world ending in 10 years ... 2020 Democrats sound like escapees from the Killing Fields."

" Few politicians in history have revealed what they are to voters more than Trump. Christ, we even know what the man’s penis looks like."

" Two groups of people, calling each other assholes across a barricade. Welcome to America in the Donald Trump era."

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/taibbi-trump-2020-be-very-afraid-872299/

sidd

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: TerryM on August 21, 2019, 02:20:52 PM

sidd

JHC That guy can write!


He doesn't turn a phrase, he drifts through a figure eight - and when the smoke clears we find that he's speeding into the slalom feature, sideways!


No wonder the spectators stand transfixed. No wonder the bleachers quake. When his pen careens through a sentence, and stops at a paragraph break, we wait for the smoke from his smoldering nib to abate so that we can retrace the skid marks that document the elegance of his eloquence.


He reminds me of Tom Wolfe when Wolfe was flying with the Angels - flying on speed with Hells Angels that is.
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on August 21, 2019, 08:44:05 PM
Taibbi remind me of Hunter S. Thompson, especially " Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail"

sidd
 
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: TerryM on August 21, 2019, 09:31:47 PM
Taibbi remind me of Hunter S. Thompson, especially " Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail"

sidd
I was thinking "Electric Kool-Aid Acid Trip" by Wolfe, but they both making up a part of his literary heritage. :)
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on September 02, 2019, 09:37:30 PM
America's Finest News Source on latest Democratic effort to appeal to the rural vote:

"We know you can barely read, so we’ll spell this out for you ... Democrats will fight inequality so you and all your inbred cousins don’t have to live in a trailer anymore"

"Democratic officials have also announced a new “You Think You Can Do Better Than Us?” campaign aimed at increasing turnout among African American and Hispanic voters."

https://politics.theonion.com/democrats-launch-new-listen-up-hayseeds-campaign-to-1837812745

sidd

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Alexander555 on September 02, 2019, 10:00:31 PM
You should be happy that Trump won the elections. Otherwise you now had a president that has a husband the was a regular visitor on the lolita express to pedo island.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on September 02, 2019, 10:06:43 PM
LOL, are you trying to imply your candidate is not a predator and rapist?

Hey, Alexander555, what's that 555 stand for?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Alexander555 on September 02, 2019, 10:12:51 PM
How would you know he's a rapist ? You hope he's one.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on September 02, 2019, 10:26:21 PM
Two observations. You don't deny him being a predator. And you wouldn't answer my question.

I know what both means.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Alexander555 on September 02, 2019, 10:46:45 PM
How would i have to know ? Most CEO's have more from a pshycopathe than the average prisoner. But most manage to controle themself. But there is some dirt among these elites. Would it be enough to start a war. That would set them all free. You guys all to the battle-field.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: oren on September 02, 2019, 11:11:06 PM
BL, DNFTT.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: petm on September 03, 2019, 01:00:43 AM
How soon will Arctic go Trump-free  :P
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on September 03, 2019, 07:27:21 AM
BL, DNFTT.

You are right. Sorry.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on September 06, 2019, 09:46:26 PM
Lowrey at black agenda report on candidates of the extreme left:

"A member of the Trotskyist party Socialist Action, Mackler is one of a handful of true, full-fat, no-joke socialist candidates running or considering running for president in 2020."

" Historians and political scientists—and socialists themselves—make the point that although the left has moved to the left, there is still a lot of left left to the left. "

"In Florida, Elijah Manley, a college student, activist, and former staffer for Senator Mike Gravel’s 2020 bid, is also running a socialist protest campaign"

"These candidates differ from the Democrats on policy, putting forward far, far more sweeping proposals than even Sanders has. Mackler scoffed at Warren’s plan to tax fortunes over $50 million at 2 percent a year, recalling a time he suggested a 100 percent levy on income over $150,000 a year. Manley said he supports proposals like Medicare for All and free college tuition, but nevertheless wants to keep workers controlling the means of production as a north star. "

"Monica Moorehead, the once and perhaps future presidential candidate for the Workers World Party, supports reparations, guaranteeing all Americans a decent standard of living, and ending the carceral state."

" the socialists’ goal is not to hem in capitalism’s excesses, as Democrats largely want to do, but to end the hegemony of capitalism."

" “Nothing ever changes without independent mass struggle—independent of the two parties, which both represent, fundamentally, the interests of the rich,” Moorehead told me. “We can’t have a kinder, gentler capitalism.” "

"Come 2020, there won’t be a socialist in the White House. But there might be some socialism"

https://blackagendareport.com/people-who-think-bernie-moderate

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: SteveMDFP on September 06, 2019, 09:50:33 PM
How would you know he's a rapist ? You hope he's one.

What ignoring E. Jean Carroll's rape allegation does to all of us

https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/27/opinions/donald-trump-jean-carroll-rape-allegation-chemaly/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/27/opinions/donald-trump-jean-carroll-rape-allegation-chemaly/index.html)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 06, 2019, 11:42:19 PM
Democrats seize on climate as 2020 primary weapon
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/04/democrats-climate-2020-1481499
Quote
It wasn’t the debate that climate activists wanted.

But one marathon stretch of climate forums on Wednesday nevertheless marked a sharp turn in the 2020 presidential contest. In seven hours on CNN, the leading Democratic candidates showed the first signs of weaponizing climate change in the primary campaign.

Democrats split from Obama playbook with aggressive climate plans
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/04/democrats-2020-obama-climate-change-1705031
Quote
Democratic White House hopefuls are rolling out aggressive climate change plans that show a sharp break from former President Barack Obama by seeking to prohibit new fossil fuel production on federal lands.

That represents a U-turn from the Trump administration's focus on driving up U.S. fossil fuel production and would go further than climate policies implemented by Obama, who often extolled the rising U.S. energy production from fracking during his tenure in the White House.

IS OK GOOD ENOUGH FOR AN INCUMBENT IN THE FACE OF THE CLIMATE CRISIS?
https://theintercept.com/2019/09/04/illinois-bill-foster-congress-rachel-ventura/
Quote
Ventura — who used to work as a naturalist for Georgia State Parks — was inspired by the national conversation around the Green New Deal to make lemonade out of Will County’s lemons. She’s currently pushing a massive project to create natural gas from trash compression at a nearby landfill, capturing greenhouse gases for reuse that would otherwise be leaked into the atmosphere. On a local level, Ventura said, this is just one aspect of what a Green New Deal could look like.

In backing a Green New Deal and likeminded initiatives at the county levels, Ventura hopes to build a shared and sustainable form of economic development. “When we’re investing money into communities and into jobs, that money gets recycled back into our economy. It’s the exact opposite of trickle-down,” Ventura said. “As we’re all receiving better jobs, that goes back into business and that generates more tax dollars, which creates more money for infrastructure.” Among Ventura’s concerns about the explosive growth of the area’s shipping industry is that many warehouse workers are hired under short-term contracts that leave them vulnerable to mistreatment and injuries on top of low wages.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 11, 2019, 09:02:29 PM
The Left Has Reframed Democrats’ Climate Debate
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/09/why-2020-climate-primary-like-2008/597694/
Quote
Just as the 2008 primary helped form Obama’s health-care policy, 2020’s climate plans could have an influence in the long term.

A guide to how 2020 Democrats plan to fight climate change
https://www.vox.com/2019/9/10/20851109/2020-democrats-climate-change-plan-president
Quote
As for the remaining candidates’ plans, most agree that climate change demands a policy response to zero out the country’s emissions. Where they differ is in how they want to get there, how they will draw on sources like nuclear power, how much federal government investment they need, and the political levers they’ll use to enact their visions.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 13, 2019, 10:41:20 PM
The crackers and frackers could hold the keys to 2020
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/the-crackers-and-frackers-could-hold-the-keys-to-2020
Quote
All Darrin Kelly wanted for the energy workers in Western Pennsylvania was that the Democratic presidential hopefuls would talk to them before going to war against shale.

That opportunity slipped away last Friday when Elizabeth Warren joined Bernie Sanders in calling for a total fracking ban.

“On my first day as president, I will sign an executive order that puts a total moratorium on all new fossil-fuel leases for drilling offshore and on public lands. And I will ban fracking — everywhere,” Warren tweeted.

“It is disappointing that any national candidate would not come in here and want to talk to the men and women of this area first before unilaterally making that decision,” said Kelly, a charismatic Pittsburgh firefighter who is also the head of the powerful and influential Allegheny Fayette Labor Council. They represent workers stretching from Pittsburgh to the borders of Maryland and West Virginia.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on September 25, 2019, 02:07:18 AM
Media like Warren: "Maybe she isn’t like Bernie"

"as long as Sanders is in the race, he will no doubt continue to draw the most intense fire. "

Hollar at FAIR:

https://fair.org/home/what-media-like-best-about-elizabeth-warren-shes-not-bernie-sanders/

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: TerryM on September 25, 2019, 04:44:57 AM
Tulsi is only democratic candidate not in favor of impeachment.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/rep-tulsi-gabbard-says-impeachment-of-trump-would-be-terribly-divisive-for-country/ar-AAHN2LP (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/rep-tulsi-gabbard-says-impeachment-of-trump-would-be-terribly-divisive-for-country/ar-AAHN2LP)


Might make for some interesting fireworks during the next debate.


Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2314 on September 25, 2019, 06:09:53 AM
Media like Warren: "Maybe she isn’t like Bernie"

"as long as Sanders is in the race, he will no doubt continue to draw the most intense fire. "

Hollar at FAIR:

https://fair.org/home/what-media-like-best-about-elizabeth-warren-shes-not-bernie-sanders/

sidd
Hilary didn't work out in 2016 so nominating someone who is substantially LESS palatable will surely work out in 2020. The Ds are in the process of alienating the entire moderate population of the US, it will come as no surprise when Trump wins again in another 300+ EV landslide.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on September 26, 2019, 02:40:04 AM
Trump campaign cashes in on impeachment: a million in three hours

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-campaign-using-impeachment-as-part-of-fundraising-push-223223737.html

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on September 26, 2019, 04:07:42 AM
On the other hand:

“The Dem House will impeach. And then the GOP will spend an entire election year explaining why the Senate won’t convict. An election year defending this? That’s not a change? Hell just got hotter for the GOP in the age of Trump.”

‘Hell just got hotter’: GOP strategist explains why impeachment will be a disaster for Republicans

https://www.rawstory.com/2019/09/hell-just-got-hotter-gop-strategist-explains-why-impeachment-will-be-a-disaster-for-republicans/
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: SteveMDFP on September 26, 2019, 03:16:36 PM
On the other hand:

“The Dem House will impeach. And then the GOP will spend an entire election year explaining why the Senate won’t convict. An election year defending this? ...”
 

My crystal ball is showing something a little different.  The House votes to impeach before the end of the year.  The Senate then holds the "trial" over a holiday weekend, while the public isn't paying attention.  Trump is acquitted. 

The repubes then spend the year proclaiming that Trump was exonerated and denouncing Democrat partisan witch hunts.  Polls don't budge appreciably.  Trump wins or loses depending on the economy and how strongly smears stick to the Dem nominee.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 26, 2019, 03:20:53 PM
On the other hand:

“The Dem House will impeach. And then the GOP will spend an entire election year explaining why the Senate won’t convict. An election year defending this? ...”
 

My crystal ball is showing something a little different.  The House votes to impeach before the end of the year.  The Senate then holds the "trial" over a holiday weekend, while the public isn't paying attention.  Trump is acquitted. 

The repubes then spend the year proclaiming that Trump was exonerated and denouncing Democrat partisan witch hunts.  Polls don't budge appreciably.  Trump wins or loses depending on the economy and how strongly smears stick to the Dem nominee.

Steve, that sounds like the most likely sccenario.  Somewhat similar to judge Kavanaugh, but with more partisanship (if possible) and less fanfare.  This has a greater potential to damage the Dems on a whole, as it may present itself as another witch hunt.  That would not bode well for the Dems chances to retain the House or win the Senate.  I agree that it will not affect the presidential election.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 26, 2019, 03:48:25 PM
My crystal ball is showing something a little different.  The House votes to impeach before the end of the year.  The Senate then holds the "trial" over a holiday weekend, while the public isn't paying attention.  Trump is acquitted.

Strongly disagree. The republicans control the senate. So if the dems make the mistake of impeaching the president, Mitch will use the "trial" as an opportunity to bring up as much demo-dirt as possible. Crowdstrike, Burisma Holdings, Fusion GPS, McCabe's Insurance-Policy, Steele Dossier, etc. will all be given center stage.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: SteveMDFP on September 26, 2019, 08:34:30 PM
My crystal ball is showing something a little different.  The House votes to impeach before the end of the year.  The Senate then holds the "trial" over a holiday weekend, while the public isn't paying attention.  Trump is acquitted.

Strongly disagree. The republicans control the senate. So if the dems make the mistake of impeaching the president, Mitch will use the "trial" as an opportunity to bring up as much demo-dirt as possible. Crowdstrike, Burisma Holdings, Fusion GPS, McCabe's Insurance-Policy, Steele Dossier, etc. will all be given center stage.

Improbable.  The Constitution describes the trial process.  Prosecution is House Judiciary committee.  Judge is Chief Justice Roberts.  Though Roberts is a Republican/Conservative, he is assertively non-partisan, and very concerned with the public perception of the Court.  He may grant some leeway for Defense witnesses, but he won't permit frank abuse of that privilege.

I expect the House to impeach on only one or two charges.  Upon Senate acquittal, I expect the House to hold additional hearings for additional articles.  Right up until the election, if Trump continues to obstruct by withholding witnesses and documents.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 28, 2019, 02:00:41 AM
My crystal ball is showing something a little different.  The House votes to impeach before the end of the year.  The Senate then holds the "trial" over a holiday weekend, while the public isn't paying attention.  Trump is acquitted.

Strongly disagree. The republicans control the senate. So if the dems make the mistake of impeaching the president, Mitch will use the "trial" as an opportunity to bring up as much demo-dirt as possible. Crowdstrike, Burisma Holdings, Fusion GPS, McCabe's Insurance-Policy, Steele Dossier, etc. will all be given center stage.

Improbable.  The Constitution describes the trial process.  Prosecution is House Judiciary committee.  Judge is Chief Justice Roberts.  Though Roberts is a Republican/Conservative, he is assertively non-partisan, and very concerned with the public perception of the Court.  He may grant some leeway for Defense witnesses, but he won't permit frank abuse of that privilege.

I expect the House to impeach on only one or two charges.  Upon Senate acquittal, I expect the House to hold additional hearings for additional articles.  Right up until the election, if Trump continues to obstruct by withholding witnesses and documents.

"The Constitution describes the trial process.  Prosecution is House Judiciary committee."

Um, no. Try reading it.

"He may grant some leeway for Defense witnesses, but he won't permit frank abuse of that privilege."

All the dem dirt I named will likely be germane to whatever article(s) the house bring.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2314 on September 28, 2019, 05:45:53 AM
My crystal ball is showing something a little different.  The House votes to impeach before the end of the year.  The Senate then holds the "trial" over a holiday weekend, while the public isn't paying attention.  Trump is acquitted.

Strongly disagree. The republicans control the senate. So if the dems make the mistake of impeaching the president, Mitch will use the "trial" as an opportunity to bring up as much demo-dirt as possible. Crowdstrike, Burisma Holdings, Fusion GPS, McCabe's Insurance-Policy, Steele Dossier, etc. will all be given center stage.

Improbable.  The Constitution describes the trial process.  Prosecution is House Judiciary committee.  Judge is Chief Justice Roberts.  Though Roberts is a Republican/Conservative, he is assertively non-partisan, and very concerned with the public perception of the Court.  He may grant some leeway for Defense witnesses, but he won't permit frank abuse of that privilege.

I expect the House to impeach on only one or two charges.  Upon Senate acquittal, I expect the House to hold additional hearings for additional articles.  Right up until the election, if Trump continues to obstruct by withholding witnesses and documents.
Do you realize how bad this is going to make Democrats look? They couldn't win on Russia so they are just throwing everything at him, whether it is true or not.

There is definitely fire re: the relationship between the Clintons and Jeffrey Epstein. Trump knew him too but Epstein didn't have a painting of Trump in a dress hanging in his UES mansion. If you think the Democrats are going to get away with this, you are certainly free to your opinion, but I think it would contribute to a Trump victory in 2020 and it will potentially give him an excuse to "lock her up" as well as some of the other Ds for real this time.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: SteveMDFP on September 28, 2019, 09:10:09 PM

Do you realize how bad this is going to make Democrats look? They couldn't win on Russia so they are just throwing everything at him, whether it is true or not. . . .

It's difficult for me to see how shining a spotlight on Trump's endless lies and corrupt schemes will net a loss in support for Democrats.

The US President asked a foreign leader to "do us a favor" and launch a criminal investigation into a political opponent, while holding billions of dollars in aid hostage.  There is no question about "whether it is true or not" because Trump himself released the notes from the call.

In terms of harming domestic democracy, nothing done by Nixon or any other prior President comes close.

Many would turn on the Democrats for *failing* to impeach on this matter.  Even partisan Republicans should mostly see this as a legitimate matter for prosecution, even if many would not consider it sufficient for removal from office.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on September 28, 2019, 09:21:16 PM
Re: "nothing done by nixon"

Mmmm. How easily they forget.

Some might say that sabotaging the paris talks to benefit his candidacy and extending the vietnam war is worse than anything the current incumbent has done ... others of course maintain that Trump is worse than Hitler.

Here is one writeup, there are many others.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/06/nixon-vietnam-candidate-conspired-with-foreign-power-win-election-215461

Oddly enuf, Johnson knew of the sabotage efforts and chose not to publicize them

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: TerryM on September 28, 2019, 09:25:12 PM
<snipped>
Many would turn on the Democrats for *failing* to impeach on this matter.  Even partisan Republicans should mostly see this as a legitimate matter for prosecution, even if many would not consider it sufficient for removal from office.
The last quote I saw was 37% of voters favored impeachment, but that was a few days back. Have the polls changed recently?


I personally can't envision a supermajority of the Republican controlled senate voting to boot out Trump. I had read that Trump's war chest gained $5M in the 24 hours after the decision was made.
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: SteveMDFP on September 28, 2019, 11:44:59 PM
Re: "nothing done by nixon"

Mmmm. How easily they forget.

Some might say that sabotaging the paris talks to benefit his candidacy and extending the vietnam war is worse than anything the current incumbent has done ... others of course maintain that Trump is worse than Hitler.

You're right, of course.  Dragging out a war is worse than extorting a foreign leader.  I was thinking just in terms of the Watergate/impeachment matters.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on September 29, 2019, 02:05:40 AM
Quote
A new poll from NPR-PBS NewsHour-Marist found that 49 percent of Americans now approve of impeachment

https://nypost.com/2019/09/28/number-of-americans-supporting-trump-impeachment-is-growing-poll/

Republican support for impeaching Trump doubled in the past few days amid escalating Ukraine scandal

https://www.businessinsider.com/republican-support-for-impeaching-trump-doubled-amid-ukraine-scandal-2019-9

Most Americans support impeachment if Trump pressured Ukraine

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/09/26/impeachment-trump-support-poll-survey-yougov
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on September 29, 2019, 08:30:24 AM
Polls show plurality/majority of independents are opposed to the impeachment inquiry.

There is very little chance the whole thing works out for the dems. There would have to be a genuine bombshell.

Trump is a slime creature king. Getting into a slime fight with him is stupid. Everyone already knows he is slimy. If you are slimy too, well he is the slime king...YOU CANT WIN.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on September 29, 2019, 09:03:15 AM
GSY, you are always quick condemning things. How about being constructive for once.

What should be done in your opinion? Why and how and to what end?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on September 29, 2019, 03:59:40 PM
The tides are shifting quickly.

"...increases in support for impeachment ...The Morning Consult poll saw an increase from 66 percent to 79 percent among Democratic voters, 33 percent to 39 percent among Independent voters, and 5 percent to 10 percent among Republican voters..."

https://www.vox.com/2019/9/27/20886877/impeachment-polls-voter-support-growing-nancy-pelosi-donald-trump

Engaging in a very well justified lawful constitutional process that was designed by the founders to curb abuses of power in the highest office in the land is far from 'getting into slime.'

It is, in fact, a constitutional and patriotic duty. And it is very sad, indeed, that it has come to the point that such ultimate measures now must be taken in the face of such overwhelming corruption.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on September 29, 2019, 04:13:28 PM
It always amazes me how easily the hivemind is to be flipped.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on September 29, 2019, 09:13:46 PM
Poll: Majority of Americans say impeachment inquiry into Trump is necessary

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/29/politics/impeachment-inquiry-trump-cbs-poll/index.html

"...Among Independents, 49% approve and 51% disapprove, the poll found..."

(Which is a statistically insignificant difference.)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: TerryM on September 29, 2019, 11:58:47 PM
Poll: Majority of Americans say impeachment inquiry into Trump is necessary

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/29/politics/impeachment-inquiry-trump-cbs-poll/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/29/politics/impeachment-inquiry-trump-cbs-poll/index.html)

"...Among Independents, 49% approve and 51% disapprove, the poll found..."

(Which is a statistically insignificant difference.)

From the same linked article:
"A two-thirds majority in the Senate is required to convict and remove a president from office -- which has [/size]never successfully happened. (https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/26/politics/us-presidents-impeached-trnd/index.html)[/color]"



Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2314 on September 30, 2019, 01:30:12 AM
Poll: Majority of Americans say impeachment inquiry into Trump is necessary

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/29/politics/impeachment-inquiry-trump-cbs-poll/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/29/politics/impeachment-inquiry-trump-cbs-poll/index.html)

"...Among Independents, 49% approve and 51% disapprove, the poll found..."

(Which is a statistically insignificant difference.)

From the same linked article:
"A two-thirds majority in the Senate is required to convict and remove a president from office -- which has [/size]never successfully happened. (https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/26/politics/us-presidents-impeached-trnd/index.html)[/color]"
Exactly. It is such a farce.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on September 30, 2019, 05:23:50 AM
Lotsa stuff that has never happened before is happening pretty much every day on many fronts...

'It has not happened before, therefore it can never happen...' is, I'm pretty sure, some kind of logical fallacy, but I can't think of the formal name of it right now, and my search engine seems to be on strike right now! :)

(I've never written that last statement before, by the way...so I guess it is impossible that I just did now!! :) :) :) )

ETA: Ah, found it. It seems to be a variation on Normalcy Bias: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias

.....

And things do seem to be shifting rather quickly indeed. The congressional Republicans have so far presented a fairly unified front in their support of Trump, pretty much whatever he did. But now, after Trump essentially called for a civil war, at least one Republican Representative (so far), Adam Kinzinger, has called the 'president's' statement 'beyond repugnant.' We'll see where this goes, both on the street and in the congress...but it is hard not to notice that, again, a lot going on here is pretty f'n un-precedented.  https://www.axios.com/rep-kinzinger-slams-trump-democrats-civil-war-quote-7a042acb-f6d2-4e86-8f9e-53dea5b7a327.html
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on September 30, 2019, 09:22:12 AM
You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down.

Impeachment should have been done earlier and on other grounds than Russiagate or now Ukrainegate. Now it's too late, and Trump has to be beaten at the ballot box, promising policies that benefit the American people. Oh yeah, and following through on those promises. Only Sanders might do that.

I find this a good discussion on impeachment:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dm6RC6WmeC0
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on September 30, 2019, 09:30:57 AM
Exactly. It is such a farce.

So you think it will damage the president?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on September 30, 2019, 09:35:30 AM
So you think it will damage the president?

It will probably help him, because it reinforces the narrative that Trump is an outsider, a man of the people, and the establishment wants to take him out in any undemocratic way it can. Russiagate failed and reinforced the narrative. Ukrainegate will do the same. Try impeaching him on real grounds after that, like the emoluments, general corruption, war crimes, etc.

It's not going to happen, and that's the whole idea. Because Corporate Democrats would rather have Trump at the helm than a real progressive populist like Sanders who will turn over their gravy train. Trump Derangement Syndrome is great for ratings, great for righteous indignation, great for weapons sales, and great for distracting from the real issues (and thus keeping the real left out of positions of power).
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on September 30, 2019, 10:00:23 AM
Try impeaching him on real grounds after that, like the emoluments, general corruption, war crimes, etc.

Yes! IMHO the Dems should hire lawyers and investigators and shoot from any cannon they could possibly get their hands on. I want to see a firework of accusations. This way you suck the air out of the room for Trump. This will limit his ability to bullshit the public.

Again, this is not only about activating Democratic voters. Deactivating Republican voters must also always be part of the strategy. And a Trump in defense mode will do that, i'm sure.

I agree this might not happen in this intensity, but now at least there is a possibility, which we hadn't had before.

And even if the Dems pursue a less ambitious impeachment process, something will stick. You can see signs of opposition even in the GOP as soon as now. I can see this getting worse for POTUS.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on September 30, 2019, 11:31:42 AM
Yes! IMHO the Dems should hire lawyers and investigators and shoot from any cannon they could possibly get their hands on. I want to see a firework of accusations. This way you suck the air out of the room for Trump. This will limit his ability to bullshit the public.

Yes, that's what Brooks argues in the video I posted above, and I think it's a good argument (if it works like that). But it's the only one, and the thing that triggered it all, Ukrainegate, is about the worst possible thing to impeach Trump on, from a PR-strategy perspective.

The way to beat Trump, is to show that he is very much part of the establishment, not outside of it. But then you have to offer an alternative, and Warren isn't it, Biden most certainly isn't. Only Sanders is, lacking a younger version. But the Corporate Democrats and media will do everything they can to keep Sanders and his movement out.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on September 30, 2019, 01:47:37 PM
I'm looking forward to seeing how this all plays out. It might go into a direction we don't yet think off.

The ones who still believe Trump is not representing the establishment are so braindead they can't possibly be convinced anyway. ;)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on September 30, 2019, 02:06:44 PM
D'oh!!

Did Neven just 'hoist me on my own petard'!  :o

Even far-right Republicans are starting to get disgusted with Trump.

Again, I am with Sanders and AOC and most others on the non-corporate left of the Dems in calling for impeachment.

Those of you against it are aligning yourselves with the likes of former WSJ opinion writer David Brooks.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on September 30, 2019, 02:13:58 PM
Juan Williams: Trump's grip on GOP Senate may come loose

Quote
Next year, 23 Senate Republicans will be up for reelection with Trump at the top of the ticket.

Murphy warned that, given Trump’s antics, Senate Republicans are thinking they are “going to lose Colorado with Cory Gardner. We’re going to lose Maine with Susan Collins. We’re going to lose Arizona with Martha McSally. And the Democrats will put the Senate very much in play.”

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/463573-juan-williams-trumps-grip-on-gop-senate-may-come-loose?fbclid=IwAR2ockfYKTqzkmJ0_HoDGtAOPTOe_KREdD8Qi0UT4nzHI-HWahq0d9eqKQs
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on September 30, 2019, 02:18:23 PM
It's not that I'm against it, I just think that it's too late, and it's a (probably deliberate) mistake to let Bidengate finally be the trigger. But maybe there are some advantages in relation to the election.  Let's hope so. If I would have to bet, I'd say that Trump is going to get re-elected anyway.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: oren on September 30, 2019, 02:32:46 PM
Experience with Netanyahu tells me that the impeachment attempt won't do much to reduce Trump's support base. If anything, it might cause that base to "close the ranks" and be more motivated to vote. If there are many independents/swing votes, this might help sway them. But I wouldn't count on it.
It's not that I am against it though. It's the right thing to do, just don't expect it to actually pay off or be helpful.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on September 30, 2019, 03:34:42 PM
Donald Trump's "Civil War" quote tweet is actually grounds for impeachment, says Harvard Law professor

Link >> https://www.newsweek.com/trump-civil-war-tweet-grounds-impeachment-1462044?piano_t=1

gnihihihihi
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on September 30, 2019, 08:07:42 PM
Quote
Sen. Bernie Sanders to younger voters: "The older generation votes in significantly higher numbers than your generation -- and if you could vote at the same rate as the older folks, we could transform this country."
Link >> https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1178605403338244096
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ken Feldman on September 30, 2019, 09:48:01 PM
President Pelosi?

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/09/30/trump-mike-pence-impeachment-007838 (https://www.politico.com/news/2019/09/30/trump-mike-pence-impeachment-007838)

Quote
Trump thrust his relationship with the vice president back into the spotlight last week, when the embattled president nudged reporters during a United Nations news conference to “ask for VP Pence’s conversation, because he had a couple conversations also” with Ukrainian officials.

The out-of-the-blue reference triggered questions about the vice president’s role in the latest mess and the unusual relationship between the pair of leaders. If Trump falls alone, Pence becomes the 46th president of the United States — a development many mainstream Republicans would prefer. If Trump and Pence go down together or in quick succession, it’s President Nancy Pelosi — a prospect that would not be lost on Senate Republicans voting on whether to oust their party’s leaders.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/09/30/president-pelosi-it-could-happen/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/09/30/president-pelosi-it-could-happen/)

Quote
What happens when a Democratic speaker of the House — third in line to the presidency, according to the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 — is suddenly thrust into the Oval Office, succeeding a Republican president and vice president who resign, embroiled in scandal?
Such a scenario is attracting attention — #PresidentPelosi was trending on social media after last week’s announcement of an impeachment inquiry — even though it may seem far-fetched that President Trump and Vice President Pence would be forced from office over abuse of power related to the administration’s dealings with Ukraine or other misdeeds.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2314 on September 30, 2019, 10:46:20 PM
Yes! IMHO the Dems should hire lawyers and investigators and shoot from any cannon they could possibly get their hands on. I want to see a firework of accusations. This way you suck the air out of the room for Trump. This will limit his ability to bullshit the public.

Yes, that's what Brooks argues in the video I posted above, and I think it's a good argument (if it works like that). But it's the only one, and the thing that triggered it all, Ukrainegate, is about the worst possible thing to impeach Trump on, from a PR-strategy perspective.

The way to beat Trump, is to show that he is very much part of the establishment, not outside of it. But then you have to offer an alternative, and Warren isn't it, Biden most certainly isn't. Only Sanders is, lacking a younger version. But the Corporate Democrats and media will do everything they can to keep Sanders and his movement out.
I think Buttigieg could win, I think Biden could win (less likely), but I think they may end up picking Warren and losing again.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: TerryM on September 30, 2019, 11:25:36 PM
wili
Only Andrew Johnson, Richard Nixon & Bill Clinton have been impeached by the House, Donald Trump will soon be the fourth in the last 230 years. I don't fear VP Pence becoming the incumbent in the next election only because I see no way for the Senate trial to succeed. I actually don't  believe Pelosi intended the impeachment to succeed.
What I do fear is that "The Donald" stands a much better chance of being re-elected now that Pelosi has (over)played her hand.


The time for arguing for or against the Democrats trying this tactic is past. Pelosi, who I see as an unsavory character, has committed the party & there's no way back, at least none that I can see.


The Democratic Party's internal polls must have painted a much darker picture of the coming election than anything we've I've seen, or the party would have waited and let the voters remove Trump. It makes little sense to impeach a President who you believe is about to lose an election.


A far more likely scenario is that Pelosi never intended to succeed in removing Trump by impeachment, but rather is hoping to injure him in the polls. I hope she's right, but if she is it indicates that the Democratic leadership felt that Trump is unbeatable in 2020 unless he can be damaged by the coming trials.


To say that this is a daring move is an understatement. If the independents become convinced that the "establishment" is picking on Trump, Democrats will take a huge shellacking in the election. Trump could emerge with Republican Supermajorities in House & Senate.


The Democrats will win in the House, Trump will win the Senate. Rather than judging the validity of the charges or the responses that follow, I'll be trying to assess their effect on the voting public.
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Bruce Steele on October 01, 2019, 12:07:01 AM
I got the ice polls correct this year so maybe I can take another guess and make a trifecta.

He gets impeached ! There will be enough key figures involved willing to cooperate. Their testimony is solid and deadly. The Senate can’t hide without risking a Senate turnover. We will see a Pence President because I believe the republicans can save him ,that is not impeach him, even if the dems do include him in the dragnet.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ken Feldman on October 01, 2019, 02:11:24 AM
From reading some of the comments, and watching some of the videos in them, it seems that a lot of people have misconceptions about the impeachment inquiry and even the process of impeachment.  The story linked below is a good summary:

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/09/impeachment-ukraine-and-its-costs-three-key-questions.amp (https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/09/impeachment-ukraine-and-its-costs-three-key-questions.amp)

Quote
Given these complexities, responsible discussions of impeachment must consider three questions. First, has the president engaged in conduct that warrants his removal under the Constitution? Second, is the effort to remove him likely to make a positive impact—or will impeachment be a mere quixotic quest? And third, would impeachment be worth the resulting rupturing of our national fabric?

Quote
Americans have never reduced to a simple formula what it means to commit “high Crimes and Misdemeanors.” A working definition captures two general elements. First, impeachable offenses represent betrayal of office. And second, those offenses pose such a serious risk of harm that they require preventive action—in other words, they suggest that the president endangers the nation. Such offenses may involve a pattern of closely related abuses, rather than a single deed. But the ultimate inquiry is whether the president has so betrayed his office and poses such a continuing threat that leaving him in power could imperil our constitutional democracy.

This president has done just that.

Begin with the White House readout of Trump’s phone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. That readout, even in its presumably sanitized form, reveals a multitude of impeachable offenses. On that call, Trump abused the foreign policy and military powers entrusted to the president by Article II to serve his own political interests—and perhaps those of his sometime-benefactor, Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose tanks have penetrated Ukrainian territory and would be opposed by the military aid Trump was unilaterally withholding—rather than the interests of the American people.
 
The resultant cover-up, too, is staggering. We have learned that the effort to protect the president ensnared numerous senior White House officials, including the lawyers representing not the president personally but the presidential office. Indeed, the whistleblower complaint alleges that the cover-up was part of a pattern of systematically overclassifying politically embarrassing information to protect the president. Such conduct betrays the institution of the presidency and poses a clear and present danger to our national security. It does so by compromising the integrity of our system for classifying intelligence, thereby undermining the confidence of our key allies in how the secrets they share with us will be handled. And it conceals the ongoing danger posed to our most sensitive secrets by the seemingly reckless way our commander in chief deploys those secrets for personal advantage or political leverage.

Quote
The primary arguments against impeachment—articulated by liberals like Bruce Ackerman, moderates like Frank Bruni, and reactionaries like John Yoo—do not deny the gravity of the president’s violations. Rather, they argue that impeachment is not worth the national costs of enraging the incumbent president’s supporters, fanning the flames of the white-hot anger that drove many of them into his camp in the first place, and leaving even some who might be prepared to vote against Trump in 2020 with the sense that a group composed almost entirely of Democrats is illegitimately undoing the results of an election with which they never came to terms. We should weigh those costs carefully as we consider how to proceed.

But those concerns cannot outweigh the imminent concern of a lawless presidency. Yes, impeachment would be traumatic. But what is the alternative? Acquiescing to lawlessness out of fear? And declining to impeach would be traumatic as well.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 01, 2019, 04:27:02 AM
wili
Only Andrew Johnson, Richard Nixon & Bill Clinton have been impeached by the House, Donald Trump will soon be the fourth in the last 230 years. I don't fear VP Pence becoming the incumbent in the next election only because I see no way for the Senate trial to succeed. I actually don't  believe Pelosi intended the impeachment to succeed.
What I do fear is that "The Donald" stands a much better chance of being re-elected now that Pelosi has (over)played her hand.


The time for arguing for or against the Democrats trying this tactic is past. Pelosi, who I see as an unsavory character, has committed the party & there's no way back, at least none that I can see.


The Democratic Party's internal polls must have painted a much darker picture of the coming election than anything we've I've seen, or the party would have waited and let the voters remove Trump. It makes little sense to impeach a President who you believe is about to lose an election.


A far more likely scenario is that Pelosi never intended to succeed in removing Trump by impeachment, but rather is hoping to injure him in the polls. I hope she's right, but if she is it indicates that the Democratic leadership felt that Trump is unbeatable in 2020 unless he can be damaged by the coming trials.


To say that this is a daring move is an understatement. If the independents become convinced that the "establishment" is picking on Trump, Democrats will take a huge shellacking in the election. Trump could emerge with Republican Supermajorities in House & Senate.


The Democrats will win in the House, Trump will win the Senate. Rather than judging the validity of the charges or the responses that follow, I'll be trying to assess their effect on the voting public.
Terry

I would agree with everything you stated, except that Nixon was never impeached.  He resigned before that could occur.  I do believe that the American people are tired of hearing about this, and it will likely harm the Democratic Party in general, as no one likes a witch hunt.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on October 01, 2019, 08:27:15 AM
ABC News Has Covered Sanders for Only Seven Minutes in 2019
MRC: Biden has gotten more attention than other 2020 Dems combined




Link >> https://freebeacon.com/politics/abc-news-has-covered-sanders-for-only-seven-minutes-in-2019/
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on October 01, 2019, 12:43:10 PM
Texas Republicans admit there’s a problem

Quote
The big picture: The GOP recognizes they can no longer ignore their Democratic opponents and count on coasting to re-election in this previously-reliable red state.

What to watch: Another Texas Republican strategist said to watch McCaul for another potential retirement. If he goes, he would be the 7th of the state's 23 House Republicans to retire at the end of this term.

The bottom line: It's truly a sign of the times that Democrats think Texas in 2020 could mimic California in 2018 — where the party picked up 7 GOP seats and helped Dems win back the House.

Link >> https://www.axios.com/texas-republicans-retirements-2020-837d4d98-ab51-4025-8784-761be418a6e0.html
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: TerryM on October 02, 2019, 10:26:18 AM
wili
Only Andrew Johnson, Richard Nixon & Bill Clinton have been impeached by the House, Donald Trump will soon be the fourth in the last 230 years. I don't fear VP Pence becoming the incumbent in the next election only because I see no way for the Senate trial to succeed. I actually don't  believe Pelosi intended the impeachment to succeed.
What I do fear is that "The Donald" stands a much better chance of being re-elected now that Pelosi has (over)played her hand.


The time for arguing for or against the Democrats trying this tactic is past. Pelosi, who I see as an unsavory character, has committed the party & there's no way back, at least none that I can see.


The Democratic Party's internal polls must have painted a much darker picture of the coming election than anything we've I've seen, or the party would have waited and let the voters remove Trump. It makes little sense to impeach a President who you believe is about to lose an election.


A far more likely scenario is that Pelosi never intended to succeed in removing Trump by impeachment, but rather is hoping to injure him in the polls. I hope she's right, but if she is it indicates that the Democratic leadership felt that Trump is unbeatable in 2020 unless he can be damaged by the coming trials.


To say that this is a daring move is an understatement. If the independents become convinced that the "establishment" is picking on Trump, Democrats will take a huge shellacking in the election. Trump could emerge with Republican Supermajorities in House & Senate.


The Democrats will win in the House, Trump will win the Senate. Rather than judging the validity of the charges or the responses that follow, I'll be trying to assess their effect on the voting public.
Terry

I would agree with everything you stated, except that Nixon was never impeached.  He resigned before that could occur.  I do believe that the American people are tired of hearing about this, and it will likely harm the Democratic Party in general, as no one likes a witch hunt.


You are right. My Bad.
As you said Nixon resigned prior to the house voting for his impeachment. I'd misremembered thinking that he quit after the House vote but prior to the Senate's decision.
Thanks!
Impeachment will make for some interesting theater, but the divide between Americans isn't healthy, and this can't do anything but exacerbate that situation. It's sucked all of the air out of AGW, just as RussiaGate had done previously.
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: gandul on October 02, 2019, 08:08:44 PM
I'm sorry that Bernie is not a few years younger. Hope he recovers (though I doubt he'll campaign anymore)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ken Feldman on October 07, 2019, 09:31:47 PM
I'm sorry that Bernie is not a few years younger. Hope he recovers (though I doubt he'll campaign anymore)

He's announced that he'll be at the debate on October 15th.  He'll probably resume campaigning after that.

And he has senior people from his campaign going to scheduled events in Iowa and South Carolina this week.  If he wasn't going to resume campaigning, they wouldn't be doing that.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: TerryM on October 07, 2019, 09:40:29 PM
Modern Medicine has made great advances WRT the heart. I've been amazed at how rapidly friends have been recovering in the past few decades.
I think he'll be back in a short time.
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ken Feldman on October 08, 2019, 10:06:52 PM
Bernie has announced that he'll resume campaigning after the October 15th debate, which he is participating in.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/08/bernie-sanders-medical-records-release-040039 (https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/08/bernie-sanders-medical-records-release-040039)

Quote
Sen. Bernie Sanders said the heart attack that has briefly sidelined him from the campaign trail did not mean he would be moving up the timeline to release his medical records, telling reporters they would come out “at the appropriate time.”
“We always planned to release them and we have more medical records, obviously, now” after the heart attack, he explained to reporters staked out outside of his Burlington, Vt., home.

Quote
The senator has vowed he’ll be on stage for next week’s Democratic debate, where his aides are betting he’ll showcase his strength and resiliency. Until then, though, Sanders has canceled his campaign events, emerging from his house for periodic walks with his wife Jane as the cameras roll.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sedziobs on October 12, 2019, 05:14:47 AM
Krystal Ball on accusations of being a Russian troll for supporting Andrew Yang:
Quote
Earlier this week I did a monologue on why Andrew Yang has made the 5th debate when so many others haven't. In my assessment, his success is in part because he was willing to expose the lie of the American meritocracy.
...
Have you discussed any of the following topics using facts and data: Poverty, addiction, homelessness, the middle class, the working class, gun violence, class warfare, community disintegration, inequality, stagnant wages, consumerism or any of the other ills of late stage capitalism. Well comrades, let's make some borsht and drink some vodka because there's nothing Putin loves more than Americans telling the truth about the current state of America.
https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/465486-krystal-ball-pushes-back-against-accusations-of-being-called-a-russian-plant (https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/465486-krystal-ball-pushes-back-against-accusations-of-being-called-a-russian-plant)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on October 18, 2019, 01:38:33 AM
Heideman at jacobin on class fissures in Trump country and wilful blindness of the media:

"the Republican Party is actually shot through with contradictions that center on what liberal journalists insist can’t possibly explain anything: class."

" Higher income people are more likely to vote, and are more likely to vote Republican, than people with lower incomes. "

"while Democratic voters by and large hold similar economic ideologies whether rich or poor, Republican voters were deeply divided by income. A majority of Republicans earning less than $40,000 a year supported raising the minimum wage, while among GOPers making more than $80,000 a year, less than 40 percent supported such a raise. The gulf was even wider on issues like mandatory paid family leave and taxing the rich"

"Among Republicans pulling in less than $40,000, 45 percent believed that economic inequality was caused by systemic unfairness in the economy. Only 18 percent of their wealthier counterparts endorsed such a view. "

"examining votes in the Senate found that the two parties are divided on different axes. While Democrats differ between rich and poor on social issues and are united on economics, Republicans are united on social issues and divided on economics, with poor Republicans endorsing significantly more progressive economic policies than rich Republicans. Senators in both parties tended to vote in accordance with the richest members of their party."

"schisms between rich and poor voters are widest in “Republican-leaning [congressional] districts, as well as districts that are highly religious, rural, and located in the south.”  "

"In rich states, which also tend to be more Democratic, income and voting were only weakly related, while in a poor red state like Arkansas, the relationship was much stronger. It is in poor states that the rich and poor are most divergent in their voting patterns."

"In the primary, three of the issues that strongly predicted backing Trump over the other Republican candidates were favoring limiting imports, backing government policies that limit inequality, and believing politicians only care about the rich. "

" there are huge numbers of poor white Americans who embrace racism and are ideologically opposed to public assistance programs. But what journalists venturing into Trump country miss is that people’s values reflect the actual choices available to them. "

"People who live in areas where the welfare state is all but nonexistent probably see a smaller tax burden as a more likely outcome than the government actually helping them"

"Taking advantage of this moment, however, is going to require coming to terms with how class is shaping American politics — including the mind of the heterogeneous Trump voter."

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2019/10/liberals-trump-country-class-voters-republicans

sidd

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ken Feldman on November 05, 2019, 10:10:30 PM
If Nancy Pelosi is the incumbent President, how would that change the 2020 elections?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-impeachment-inquiry-live-updates/2019/11/05/a27d7c48-ff4e-11e9-8bab-0fc209e065a8_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-impeachment-inquiry-live-updates/2019/11/05/a27d7c48-ff4e-11e9-8bab-0fc209e065a8_story.html)

Quote
Live updates: Top diplomat revises his earlier testimony, says U.S. aid to Ukraine was tied to public anti-corruption pledge

By John Wagner, Colby Itkowitz and Felicia Sonmez
November 5, 2019 at 12:53 p.m. PST

Gordon Sondland, ambassador to the European Union, acknowledged telling one of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s advisers that resumption of U.S. aid was tied to an anti-corruption pledge sought by Trump.

The acknowledgment in a deposition released Tuesday was a reversal from his earlier testimony. It puts Sondland in the middle of what national security officials saw as an attempt by the White House to leverage nearly $400 million in security assistance for investigations that could benefit President Trump politically.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/05/politics/jennifer-williams-impeachment-inquiry/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/05/politics/jennifer-williams-impeachment-inquiry/index.html)

Quote
Pence aide likely to testify in impeachment inquiry

By Alex Marquardt, CNN

Updated 1:54 PM ET, Tue November 5, 2019

Washington (CNN) A senior adviser to Vice President Mike Pence is likely to comply with a request to testify on Thursday in front of the committees leading the impeachment inquiry, multiple sources say.

Jennifer Williams would be the first person on Pence's national security team to appear and has knowledge of how much the vice president knew about the efforts by President Donald Trump and those around him to push Ukraine to launch investigations into Joe Biden and his son, as well as 2016 election interference, according to a source familiar with her thinking.

Williams, along with other senior administration and national security officials, was listening to the phone call on July 25 in which Trump asked for a "favor" of his newly-elected Ukrainian counterpart, President Volodymyr Zelensky, a White House source says. Trump asked Zelensky to work with his attorney general, William Barr, and personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, on investigations after Zelensky said he was ready to proceed with the transfer of US military aid to Ukraine.

Quote
Pence did not listen in, but a transcript of the call was put into Pence's daily briefing binder, an administration source says.

Lawmakers will look to Williams to explain what Pence knew and when, something the source familiar with Williams' thinking says she is able to do.

Over a month after the call, Williams traveled with Pence to Warsaw when he stood in for Trump and met with Zelensky on September 1. After that meeting, Pence said they discussed corruption in Ukraine and evaded a question about whether the hold up of almost $400 million in security aid for Ukraine was tied to Giuliani's efforts to dig up dirt on Joe and Hunter Biden. There is no evidence of wrongdoing by either Biden in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on November 06, 2019, 12:03:47 AM
This is more suited to the political wrestling/theatre thread, as it's all a big distraction.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 06, 2019, 12:44:03 AM
The two threads are inseparable.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: TerryM on November 06, 2019, 11:59:13 PM
How will the dynamics change when the DNC appoints their Corporate Democratic candidate? Will Bernie toe the party line again? Can the same be expected of Tulsi?
Will their followers enthusiastically support Pelosi's candidate, or will they sit this one out and plot their revenge in 2024.


Will Pelosi's pick be campaigning against Trump's withdrawal from the Paris Accords, or will the emphasis be that Trump has surrendered in Syria? It will make a difference to me.


Bernie and Tulsi
Candidates that could win - if they were allowed to run.
Terry

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on November 28, 2019, 08:53:18 AM
Impeachment dont play in Peoria: Trump voters wont switch

"Nearly two-thirds of voters in six battleground states who voted for President Trump in 2016 — but for Democratic congressional candidates in 2018 — say they intend to back the president against each of his top rivals,"

" He has also been intrigued by Bernie Sanders. But he’ll probably back Mr. Trump again, he said."

"Many of the voters cited economic strength as a major reason to support Mr. Trump in 2020, even if they didn’t support him last time. Also, certain voters who support Trump said they had soured on Democrats because of partisan fighting, culminating in impeachment hearings."

" “The Democratic Party fell apart on the heels of Trump winning,” he said. “The harder they’re going after Trump, the more they’re just alienating people and pushing them away.” "

“You’re all going to be very surprised because all these quiet little Christian women aren’t saying anything right now, but they are going to vote for Trump again,”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/they-voted-democratic-now-they-support-trump/ar-BBXnsto

Actually the article doesn't mention Peoria. But i go thru a bunch of places mentioned like Nanty Glo,  ligonier, Scranton in PA, and a bunch in Oh, MI, Wi, WV, KY and the like. Thats what i see on the street.

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 28, 2019, 02:25:21 PM
For many of those reasons, I feel that Biden is the only candidate that can defeat Trump.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: TerryM on November 28, 2019, 03:17:35 PM
For many of those reasons, I feel that Biden is the only candidate that can defeat Trump.
Defeat him in what way?


A contest in fathering the most compromised son?
A contest in leering at the youngest girls?
A contest involving the most Ukrainian support?


Biden is most certainly a winner, or did spellcheck screw up on whiner again.


Terry ;D
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 28, 2019, 03:50:34 PM
For many of those reasons, I feel that Biden is the only candidate that can defeat Trump.
Defeat him in what way?


A contest in fathering the most compromised son?
A contest in leering at the youngest girls?
A contest involving the most Ukrainian support?


Biden is most certainly a winner, or did spellcheck screw up on whiner again.


Terry ;D

Might want to reread the post.  Who has been least involved in partisan politics, most involved with economic expansion since the last recession, and might look best to those Christians?  The issues you stated did not appear on their radar.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on November 28, 2019, 04:58:40 PM
For many of those reasons, I feel that Biden is the only candidate that can defeat Trump.

This is contradictory to almost any poll i've seen. Sanders always beats trump by a bigger margin than Biden. He has a high unfavourable rate. He just blew the Latino vote by outing himself as the deporter in chief once he becomes president. He will very likely lose Iowa and New Hampshire which will make him drop in the polls even more. He went from over 40% to under 30% nationally, and there is no sign of a floor for him.

This is 2019, Kat, not 1969.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 28, 2019, 06:24:33 PM
And yet the latest rcp average has Biden leading Sanders 27% to 18%, with Warren third at 16%.  Yes, those are 2019 polls.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on November 28, 2019, 07:02:06 PM
Will that stay like that when he loses Iowa? Of course not.

The 'electability' myth is getting weaker by the day.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 28, 2019, 07:14:14 PM
Will that stay like that when he loses Iowa? Of course not.

The 'electability' myth is getting weaker by the day.

I suspect it will stay that way after he loses New Hampshire also.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: TerryM on November 28, 2019, 10:03:01 PM
For many of those reasons, I feel that Biden is the only candidate that can defeat Trump.
Defeat him in what way?


A contest in fathering the most compromised son?
A contest in leering at the youngest girls?
A contest involving the most Ukrainian support?


Biden is most certainly a winner, or did spellcheck screw up on whiner again.


Terry ;D

Might want to reread the post.  Who has been least involved in partisan politics, most involved with economic expansion since the last recession, and might look best to those Christians?  The issues you stated did not appear on their radar.
I give up - Jimmy Carter has another 4 yr.s left, but he's a little long in the tooth even for this crowd. ;D
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 29, 2019, 04:36:49 PM
For many of those reasons, I feel that Biden is the only candidate that can defeat Trump.

This is contradictory to almost any poll i've seen. Sanders always beats trump by a bigger margin than Biden. He has a high unfavourable rate. He just blew the Latino vote by outing himself as the deporter in chief once he becomes president. He will very likely lose Iowa and New Hampshire which will make him drop in the polls even more. He went from over 40% to under 30% nationally, and there is no sign of a floor for him.

This is 2019, Kat, not 1969.

The latest surveyusa poll has Biden winning by the largest margin, 13%.  Sanders is a close second at 12%.  No one else is above 7%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5128ee79-1b59-4146-bf80-54906bb24d4b
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on November 29, 2019, 05:18:43 PM
If the survey is anything like the website...

One point, Kat?

Noticed. ;)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on November 29, 2019, 05:21:42 PM
I suspect it will stay that way after he loses New Hampshire also.

He never won a primary before, you know that, right? Why would he this time? What's different now (despite him being senile)?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 29, 2019, 05:47:30 PM
I suspect it will stay that way after he loses New Hampshire also.

He never won a primary before, you know that, right? Why would he this time? What's different now (despite him being senile)?

He has the support of black voters, including an ex-president.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: TerryM on November 30, 2019, 12:40:14 AM
I suspect it will stay that way after he loses New Hampshire also.

He never won a primary before, you know that, right? Why would he this time? What's different now (despite him being senile)?

He has the support of black voters, including an ex-president.
So did Clinton, and she also had the women's vote tied up. ???
I fear that the Trumpster has a winning record against Corporate Democrats, and that they haven't learned a thing since writing off their last loss to others - rather than accepting their own shortcomings. You can't learn from mistakes until you've learned to accept that mistakes were made. 8)
What mistakes did the Clinton campaign make that Biden's campaign won't repeat?
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 30, 2019, 12:54:12 AM
I suspect it will stay that way after he loses New Hampshire also.

He never won a primary before, you know that, right? Why would he this time? What's different now (despite him being senile)?

He has the support of black voters, including an ex-president.
So did Clinton, and she also had the women's vote tied up. ???
I fear that the Trumpster has a winning record against Corporate Democrats, and that they haven't learned a thing since writing off their last loss to others - rather than accepting their own shortcomings. You can't learn from mistakes until you've learned to accept that mistakes were made. 8)
What mistakes did the Clinton campaign make that Biden's campaign won't repeat?
Terry

Hard to say at this point.  Let’s wait and see what happens after the primaries end.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: SteveMDFP on November 30, 2019, 01:03:37 AM

What mistakes did the Clinton campaign make that Biden's campaign won't repeat?
Terry

I think the reason Hillary lost was that she has the personality of a brillo pad.
Biden is likable.  Puts his foot in his mouth a bit too often, but the guy he would be running against is far worse on that score.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 30, 2019, 02:56:20 AM

What mistakes did the Clinton campaign make that Biden's campaign won't repeat?
Terry

I think the reason Hillary lost was that she has the personality of a brillo pad.
Biden is likable.  Puts his foot in his mouth a bit too often, but the guy he would be running against is far worse on that score.

Hard to argue with that.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: TerryM on November 30, 2019, 03:23:27 AM
^^
I didn't have a problem with Hillary's personality until she was working as Secretary of State during Obama's first term. Whether she had been better at hiding her true identity, changed during the interim, or whether I just hadn't been paying attention is moot. She'd been widely praised, at least by Democrats until that appointment. She had an approval rating of 65% at the time of her inauguration.


She'd put up a good fight for single payer healthcare during her husband's administration, and apparently had put up with a good deal from her husband. A sympathetic figure that was a popular NY Senator.


She lost to Obama because Obama was a phenom that came out of nowhere. Maybe she grew bitter, maybe her true personality came out, but by 2016 she'd changed, or my perception of her had changed.
The "brillo pad personality" won the popular vote in that election, but surplus votes in California won't win the presidency.


I don't think blaming the loss on Hillary's personality is much more valid than blaming foreign intervention. The DNC lost the election when they abandoned their base. They're doing nothing to win them back, and they could do the unthinkable and lose another one to Trump.
Terry

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 30, 2019, 03:41:58 AM
That and many people are dissatisfied with the way the DNC is trying to control the process, and anoint the candidate of their choosing to gain the nomination.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on December 04, 2019, 07:44:30 AM
a near future scenario:

Consider a billionaire with 100 billion to spare, not so impossible these days. What law in the USA  can prevent   a promise to give 500$ to every person at every address in every electoral precinct that has a majority vote for him ?

He/She/LGBTQ  dont have to know who voted which way, but will know the results across a precinct.

Of 300 million odd, lets say 200 million in precincts that vote for him a total of 100 billion US$ , for a huge landslide.

Remember, a lot of people in the USA dont have $400 to meet an unexpected bill.

And right now we have people with that kinda change. And companies with that kinda change. And 32 trillion in hidden money in offshore accounts that could probably buy every election in the USA.

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: SteveMDFP on December 04, 2019, 02:35:09 PM
a near future scenario:

Consider a billionaire with 100 billion to spare, not so impossible these days. What law in the USA  can prevent   a promise to give 500$ to every person at every address in every electoral precinct that has a majority vote for him ?

He/She/LGBTQ  dont have to know who voted which way, but will know the results across a precinct.

Of 300 million odd, lets say 200 million in precincts that vote for him a total of 100 billion US$ , for a huge landslide.

Remember, a lot of people in the USA dont have $400 to meet an unexpected bill.

And right now we have people with that kinda change. And companies with that kinda change. And 32 trillion in hidden money in offshore accounts that could probably buy every election in the USA.

sidd

18 U.S. Code § 597.Expenditures to influence voting
https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/597# (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/597#)

"Whoever makes or offers to make an expenditure to any person, either to vote or withhold his vote, or to vote for or against any candidate; and

Whoever solicits, accepts, or receives any such expenditure in consideration of his vote or the withholding of his vote—

Shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than one year, or both; and if the violation was willful, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than two years, or both"

Of course, circumventing the letter of such laws is part of routine politics.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on December 04, 2019, 04:44:08 PM
Of course, circumventing the letter of such laws is part of routine politics.

Thank you Trump for showing the wold i guess...
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on December 08, 2019, 07:05:06 AM
Let's talk about the smartest Republican Senators...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aFvSldIoRk
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sedziobs on December 08, 2019, 08:07:23 PM
Gabbard with 6% in today's Quinnipiac New Hampshire poll, good for 5th place (top 4 below). She's just one poll away from qualifying for the December debate. Biden, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg, Harris, and Klobuchar have already qualified. Gabbard, Yang, and Steyer need one or two more polls in the next month or so.
With Harris dropping out, six candidates have qualified for the December debate so far: Biden, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Steyer. Yang and Gabbard still need one more poll. It doesn't help that there have only been two qualifying polls released over the last couple weeks. The deadline is Thursday.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sedziobs on December 10, 2019, 03:51:23 AM
Tulsi announced she will not attend the December debate even if she qualifies.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: TerryM on December 10, 2019, 09:40:33 PM
^^
A 3d party to muddle the mix?


Tulsi flouted the DNC in 2016 to back Bernie.
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/candidates-views-on-the-issues/tulsi-gabbard/ (https://www.politico.com/2020-election/candidates-views-on-the-issues/tulsi-gabbard/)


If the DNC again chooses an unacceptable loser to challenge Trump will a 3d party run be inevitable? Would democratic voters stay with the DNC's candidate - or would a progressive, green peace party offer voters a winning alternative to Trump, Hillary & Bloomberg?


If a split occurs do we then want a very weak democrat running so he (or she) doesn't steal too many votes from the 3d party? If Hillary or Bloomberg capture the DNC's endorsement, could the Democratic Party be relegated to a 3d place finish?


It might cost one election, but it could end the DNC's reign over the "opposition" party.
If reforming the Democratic Party isn't working - what are the alternatives?


This Primary Season could get very interesting.
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on December 10, 2019, 09:43:24 PM
Interesting in the Chinese sense.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sedziobs on December 10, 2019, 10:34:42 PM
Yang picked up his final qualifying poll today, so we will have seven candidates for next week's debate.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on December 16, 2019, 03:45:18 PM
Here are my candidates for POTUS  ;D

Popeye:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2OZA0H652F8

Alvin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q24F0wGxmPA

Snoopy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QddHVitk7KA
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on December 16, 2019, 04:25:33 PM
Bernie Sanders is missing in this list of non-lying politicians, Tom. :P
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on December 18, 2019, 05:43:22 PM
Will the Impeachment be an own goal for the Democrats?
By Impeaching Trump, The Democrats Are Destroying Both Our Political System And Their Chances Of Winning In 2020
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/by-impeaching-trump-the-democrats-are-destroying-both-our-political-system-and-their-chances-of-winning-in-2020
Quote
The Democrats probably never imagined that this effort to remove Donald Trump from office would backfire so spectacularly.  Yes, it was always a foregone conclusion that they would be able to impeach Trump in the House, but they were expecting that a majority of the American people would rally around them and that simply has not happened.  In fact, we just got some brand new numbers that are incredibly good news for President Trump.  As you will see below, public support for impeachment continues to fade, and a brand new survey just found that President Trump would beat all of the major contenders for the Democratic nomination if the 2020 election was held today.  At one time, it appeared that the Democrats were likely to win the 2020 presidential election in a historic landslide, but now thanks to this impeachment debacle the numbers have shifted dramatically in Trump’s favor.  And if Trump does ultimately end up winning, the Democrats are going to be kicking themselves for ever going down this road in the first place.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: TerryM on December 18, 2019, 09:35:02 PM
Will the Impeachment be an own goal for the Democrats?
By Impeaching Trump, The Democrats Are Destroying Both Our Political System And Their Chances Of Winning In 2020
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/by-impeaching-trump-the-democrats-are-destroying-both-our-political-system-and-their-chances-of-winning-in-2020 (http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/by-impeaching-trump-the-democrats-are-destroying-both-our-political-system-and-their-chances-of-winning-in-2020)
Quote
The Democrats probably never imagined that this effort to remove Donald Trump from office would backfire so spectacularly.  Yes, it was always a foregone conclusion that they would be able to impeach Trump in the House, but they were expecting that a majority of the American people would rally around them and that simply has not happened.  In fact, we just got some brand new numbers that are incredibly good news for President Trump.  As you will see below, public support for impeachment continues to fade, and a brand new survey just found that President Trump would beat all of the major contenders for the Democratic nomination if the 2020 election was held today.  At one time, it appeared that the Democrats were likely to win the 2020 presidential election in a historic landslide, but now thanks to this impeachment debacle the numbers have shifted dramatically in Trump’s favor. And if Trump does ultimately end up winning, the Democrats are going to be kicking themselves for ever going down this road in the first place.
If Trump does ultimately end up winning, the Democrats are going to be blaming the Russians, the Chinese, or anyone other than the DNC, who drove them over the precipice.

If the Democrats blamed themselves for the debacle they would likely learn from their mistake. Recent history shows that such an outcome is extremely unlikely.
Avoiding the disclosure of past failures is far more important to the DNC than the results of this election. A very winnable election which is now in peril, thanks primarily to their cover up of the last election debacle.


Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on December 18, 2019, 10:00:37 PM
Warning: satire

https://babylonbee.com/news/the-bee-explains-impeachment

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on December 18, 2019, 10:02:08 PM
America's Finest News Source:

“While nearly all survey participants agreed the president should be executed in a highly public setting, only a minority thinks he should receive a proper burial, with more than half stating that the deceased commander-in-chief should be allowed to complete his four-year term,”

"Polling suggests in 2020 the bloated, lifeless body of Trump would continue to enjoy a strong, built-in advantage in the Electoral College."

https://politics.theonion.com/poll-finds-54-of-americans-approve-executing-trump-but-1840514848

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on December 27, 2019, 08:04:59 AM
Warning: satire


Quote
satire
/ˈsatʌɪə/

noun

the use of humour, irony, exaggeration, or ridicule to expose and criticize people's stupidity or vices, particularly in the context of contemporary politics and other topical issues.

What do we fucking do when politics these days is laughable, ironic, exaggerated, and ridiculous by itself?? Satire died in 2016! And a million times after that.  :-\

However, The Onion is still doing a great job, i have to say.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on January 05, 2020, 08:38:38 AM
I was at a VFW tonite, shooting pool with some vet friends, some active military. Some with missing limbs, some with more hidden hurts.

To a man, they condemned the Soleimani assasination. Trump has lost their support. I think he may have just lost the election.

We shall see.

sidd
 
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on January 05, 2020, 08:58:49 AM
Now is the time to change this. Now we have a chance. #SandersForPresident

(https://i.redd.it/ke0r6yohkt841.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/M5WvqiD.jpg)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on January 05, 2020, 09:01:04 AM
I think he may have just lost the election.

I think so too!
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: TerryM on January 05, 2020, 12:52:45 PM
^^
11 months is an eternity in the final run up to a Presidential election.


I hope you're right, but if things don't spin out of control militarily in the coming months I think that the perceived state of the economy will make or break Trump's chances for a second term.


I can't see Iran making any serious moves without Putin and Xi's backing. Xi's chosen battlefield is the marketplace & I think Putin will be quite happy with the status quo once Nord Stream 2 and the Turkish pipelines to Europe are completed.


Recalling James Carville's advice from the 1992 race, "It's the economy, stupid"
Terry

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on January 06, 2020, 06:02:54 AM
Rubin at wapo rallies the troops for attacks on Sanders:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/03/when-does-sanders-get-scrutiny-top-tier-candidates-deserve/

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on January 06, 2020, 06:03:32 AM
Trump money buys farmer support:

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-money-buying-silence-farmer-subsidies-933019/

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on January 07, 2020, 11:05:32 PM
To a man, they condemned the Soleimani assasination. Trump has lost their support. I think he may have just lost the election.

So, which Democrats are pounding this, and which ones are demanding a 'rationale'?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on January 08, 2020, 12:39:44 AM
Re:  which Democrats are pounding this, and which ones are demanding a 'rationale'?

the usual suspects ... Bide/Butt are warmongers as usual, Sanders/Gabbard stick to antiwar guns, Warren on the fence ...

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: TerryM on January 08, 2020, 05:03:04 PM
Re:  which Democrats are pounding this, and which ones are demanding a 'rationale'?

the usual suspects ... Bide/Butt are warmongers as usual, Sanders/Gabbard stick to antiwar guns, Warren on the fence ...

sidd
I want one!
Are they available without a background check? 8)
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on January 08, 2020, 05:47:07 PM
Quote
Warren on the fence

No, she's not! She's all there with the war propaganda.

Quote
Soleimani was a murderer, responsible for the deaths of thousands, including hundreds of Americans. But this reckless move escalates the situation with Iran and increases the likelihood of more deaths and new Middle East conflict. Our priority must be to avoid another costly war.

Translates to: Yes, there is a reason to assassinate him (which there is not), but we should have done it covertly. The last sentence is a lie to pander to the voters. How do i know it's a lie? She voted for Trumps over-bloated military budget. Also, her plan to cut CO2 was to make the bombs greener, remember that one? She loves the military-industrial complex. She can't be trusted!
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on January 08, 2020, 10:26:48 PM
Trump has fucked up, even Tucker Carlson says it, but will (Corporate) Democrats pound on it?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2GZEH7mklYg

Kulinski at the end:

Quote
Alright, Democrats, it's your move. I would resist this to the high heavens, man. I would... This would be the main issue I would talk about on the campaign trail if I was running for president. And if I was in Congress, I would just clobber the Republicans over the head with this. Because this is exactly what you fear it is: A criminal government, casually committing war crimes, because they want to get into a deeper war with Iran and overthrow the government and do regime change, because we want to serve our corporations and jack their oil, and feed the military-industrial complex.

True Democrats/Progressives pound on this immediately, Corporate Democrats will wait and see which way the wind blows. They'd rather not denounce anything and promise they won't start and continue endless wars, because of the bolded above. They serve concentrated wealth, just like Republicans.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on January 08, 2020, 10:40:45 PM
Here is someone pounding it right away:

https://youtu.be/Ahv4nYd6fLI?t=328

This is how you get Trump out of office. Russiagate and Ukrainegate will keep him in it.

Who else has been pounding it right away?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJ6mWMyjJv8
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on January 19, 2020, 11:03:11 AM
Be more like that guy >>

I canvassed first Bernie today. Only one person...

Quote
... said they weren’t voting Sanders. Every other person we talked to said they were voting for Sanders!!! We were only out for a couple hours and I’d say we actually talked to like 15 people or so but I was just blown away by the level of support and positivity. This was the first time I’ve ever canvassed and I was so nervous but after just a couple houses I was having a blast! At our final visit, the man who was home invited us in because he said we HAD to talk to his girlfriend. He gave us beers while we waited for her to get home from work and had fantastic conversation with him and his family. We learned so much about our community and made valuable connections for the Bernie movement and beyond. Get out there people, it’s up to us!

Link >> https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMajorityReport/comments/eqs4fz/i_canvassed_first_bernie_today_only_one_person/
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on January 19, 2020, 02:26:13 PM
Sanders has been gaining recently, largely at the expense of Elizabeth Warren.  He will likely do well in the early states of Iowa and NH, but his support is not as widespread as Joe Biden.  Biden has a huge lead in the southern states, and could win the nomination outright.  Sanders best chance is for several liberal candidates to drop out (including Warren), and support his candidacy.  After her recent drop in the polls, she may just do so, in order for a liberal candidate to have a chance.  Even so, Sanders has an uphill battle.  Even if Biden cannot secure the nomination during the primary season, he has the advantage in a brokered convention.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on January 19, 2020, 09:05:39 PM
Hamby at Vanity Fair has a suggestion for the political media: get outta the coasts, get on the road

"the stories and micro-scandals that obsess political and media insiders—often played out in episodic fashion on Twitter—matter little to voters "

“They don’t trust CNN or Fox, see them as two sides of the same coin,”

"They don’t even trust what they read on Facebook anymore"

“Because for the people who are the most easily dissuaded from participation, it’s when you promise them the moon and can‘t deliver a single grain of sand.”

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/01/why-trump-has-huge-advantage-over-democrats-low-information-voters

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on January 20, 2020, 11:26:20 AM
How it feels arguing for Bernie

(https://i.redd.it/5lzhfwazisb41.jpg)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on January 21, 2020, 03:53:15 PM
Bernie Sanders vs Donald Trump in 16 seconds

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2gDSFBdW8ro
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on January 28, 2020, 09:31:32 AM
MLK & Bernie Sanders vs Donald Trump - “Revolution of Values”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjmT-zx4nyI
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on January 28, 2020, 09:55:49 AM
NYT looks at Dayton and ohio and the country:

"In the 1990s there was no strong correlation between the economic standing of a place and the partisan preference of its voters: The Republican Party received roughly the same share of the vote in richer and poorer counties. By 2000, however, the electoral map had started to shift. "

"But by 2000, lagging places had turned sharply toward the Republican Party. "

"By 2016, the Republican Party won almost twice the share of votes in the nation’s most destitute counties — home to the poorest 10 percent of Americans — that it won in the richest. "

"By 2016, the nation’s political map corresponded neatly to the distribution of prosperity: Mr. Trump won 58 percent of the vote in the counties with the poorest 10 percent of the population. In the richest, his share was 31 percent. "

"the Democrats, once accused of working to keep the poor poor in order to preserve a captive voting base, have instead come to represent the places that benefited most from the global economy of the late 20th century and early 21st. "

"In a way Mr. Hoskins feels betrayed: In the face of economic insecurity, his loyalty to the union and the Democratic Party did not protect him. And the Republicans were an increasingly attractive alternative."

 “when it came time for the doors to shut at G.M., the Democrats weren’t looking out for me,”

" to the Democrats’ old working-class base, the Clinton administration’s embrace of international trade eventually felt like a sellout. "

"That new order held rewards for the well educated, but little future for the manufacturing jobs that had long been a path to economic security. "

" frustrated workers on the losing side of change no longer seem to trust Democrats to be their champions. "

 “a lot of union people switched to the Republican Party because they felt the Democrats had left them.”

“Dayton consistently showed up for Democrats, and Democrats didn’t show up for Dayton.”

" a sense of disillusionment among many African-Americans after President Obama’s two terms. “They expected so much would be accomplished under Obama, and it wasn’t,”  "

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/01/27/business/economy/republican-party-voters-income.html

Actually i think Ohio is on the edge. Might swing either way this time around.

sidd


Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on January 30, 2020, 02:05:36 PM
Kyle fucking nailed it with this one.

Trump Pulls Mafia Boss Move On Impeachment, Media Clutches Pearls

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvepowQoUQE
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on January 31, 2020, 05:25:53 AM
AIPAC against Bernie: not electable

"ads don't focus on any of the AIPAC-front group's foreign policy positions "

"A consultant for health insurers and pharmaceutical interests using a front group named 'Democratic Majority for Israel' to attack the first potential Jewish presidential nominee "

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/01/29/out-touch-pro-israel-group-criticized-ads-hitting-bernie-sanders-electability

Mmmm. I guess the usual antisemitism attack is a tough sell when the target is Jewish ...

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on January 31, 2020, 05:46:04 AM
One of the rare times when i dont agree with Chomsky: Greens mustn't run in contested states

https://www.truthdig.com/articles/an-open-letter-to-the-green-party-for-2020/

Dissenting replies:

Garrison at black agenda report:

https://blackagendareport.com/safe-states-strategy-hell-greens-respond-progressive-left-dems

Hawkins:

https://howiehawkins.us/every-state-is-a-battleground-howie-hawkins-response-to-an-open-letter-to-the-green-party-about-2020-election-strategy/

Ford at black agenda report:

https://www.blackagendareport.com/progressive-dems-ought-divorce-duopoly-not-badger-greens

sidd

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on January 31, 2020, 05:56:58 AM
AIPAC against Bernie: not electable

Imagine that, a foreign power does election interference in plain sight and no one opposes...
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on January 31, 2020, 06:23:13 AM
America's Finest News Source: CBS to air Bloomberg ads

“We’ve had a great run with Mayor Bloomberg’s shorter ads, so we’re thrilled to welcome him into our lineup with a full series of hour-long episodic commercials,”

" Frankly, we’re willing to keep this running for as many seasons as the mayor would like."

https://politics.theonion.com/cbs-inks-deal-for-30-episode-bloomberg-ad-1841309602

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on January 31, 2020, 07:58:44 PM
PSA concerning the 2020 elections.

(https://i.redd.it/0w1czztru4e41.png)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on February 04, 2020, 06:33:48 PM
No, seriously. This is true!

(https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/voting_software_2x.png)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on February 05, 2020, 07:14:25 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/1MSZehw.jpg)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on February 05, 2020, 07:32:09 AM
Why Iowa happened and why government websites suck

Quote
The democratic caucus fiasco in Iowa is an example of an important thing:
Civic orgs, like the DNC or the government, need to stop using private contracting companies to build their closed source software. Democracy is at stake.

Link >> https://medium.com/@aslanfrench/why-iowa-happened-and-why-government-websites-suck-db1957ecb75f
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: TerryM on February 05, 2020, 08:29:26 AM
^^
Especially when Pelosi is financing the software!
https://freebeacon.com/politics/steyer-pelosi-pacs-funded-shadowy-group-behind-botched-iowa-app/ (https://freebeacon.com/politics/steyer-pelosi-pacs-funded-shadowy-group-behind-botched-iowa-app/)
The hood news is that the Nevada Democrats have opted out of the app.
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on February 05, 2020, 08:58:41 AM
Maybe this should be in the Corporate Democrats thread, I'm not sure yet:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVGx1H8TDtc
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on February 05, 2020, 11:49:17 AM
If you think the US is a democracy, watch this, and go away ashamed.

Link >> https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMajorityReport/comments/eyz9lw/check_this_out_fam/
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on February 05, 2020, 10:09:09 PM
Lovegrove at Post and Courier: Republicans for Bernie !

"Boost the candidate who the Republicans believe presents the weakest general election threat to President Donald Trump and pressure Democrats to support closing state primaries in the future."

"South Carolina has open primaries, meaning voters do not have to register by party and can participate in either party's contest. But some conservative activists have long pushed to change that, arguing it would ensure a more pure party process, and they are hoping this effort will win over Democrats to that cause."

"I think we can easily affect the outcome,"

https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/upstate-gop-leaders-plotting-to-impact-sc-democratic-primary-by/article_f1e7abd2-4788-11ea-aa9f-33a1d262994c.html

Strange bedfellows, indeed.

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on February 06, 2020, 01:45:00 AM
Closed primaries and caucuses do the party no favors, as it limits who can vote for the candidates.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Pmt111500 on February 06, 2020, 04:05:30 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/1MSZehw.jpg)

Lol! I'd place them a bit differently, but not by much. but yeah, there's a definitive right-bias in their 'center'. Most prominent democrats in US would indeed go to center-right in Finland, too. And Bloomberg... Oh why?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on February 06, 2020, 07:54:40 AM
And Bloomberg... Oh why?

Because America! Because Freedom! ;)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on February 06, 2020, 05:12:57 PM
Remember these names!

(https://i.redd.it/aw8vbgnu07f41.png)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on February 06, 2020, 06:09:53 PM
Remember these names!

(https://i.redd.it/aw8vbgnu07f41.png)

What about the other 36 up for re-election?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on February 06, 2020, 06:13:01 PM
They didn't vote to acquit.

Walrus, please read this post >> https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1562.msg246150.html#msg246150

Point 3) is for you! :P
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: TerryM on February 06, 2020, 06:36:01 PM
Did someone actually believe that Trump would be impeached?


Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 06, 2020, 10:01:38 PM
Did someone actually believe that Trump would be impeached?


Terry
He was impeached.
He wasn’t convicted .
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on February 07, 2020, 01:06:02 AM
Kyle Kulinski and simple logic of why impeaching Trump was so incredibly stupid and helping Trump to get a second term:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jOdTrU-Kj4
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on February 07, 2020, 01:27:28 AM
Kyle Kulinski and simple logic of why impeaching Trump was so incredibly stupid and helping Trump to get a second term:

Agreed.  Along with the antics at th  Ed state of the union, the Democratic Party is looking as if they are spearheading the divisiveness in this country.  Time to pull it together, or his logic may come true.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on February 07, 2020, 05:56:48 AM
America's Finest News Source: Both parties run true to form

"both parties acting exactly how everyone expected them to had restored the nation’s faith in its political process."

"affirmed my belief that today’s U.S. government is working exactly as intended"

"I was really worried impeachment indicated that the American way of life for the last several decades was at risk ...  I’m just grateful that both parties were able to move past their differences and work together to uphold the American political system as we know it."

"it would have been devastating if the Senate removed Trump, which would fly in the face of what the founding fathers wanted when they inscribed the principle of a few rich men shielding each other from accountability into the nation’s Constitution."

https://politics.theonion.com/both-parties-acting-exactly-how-everyone-expected-them-1841477562

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on February 07, 2020, 07:55:11 AM
On a general note:

(https://i.redd.it/yu8lhs8kidf41.jpg)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ktb on February 07, 2020, 01:01:05 PM
My mother could not stomach Trump or Hillary in 2016 and instead voted 3rd party. As of 2 weeks ago, she has for the first time in her life registered as a democrat.
Likely a vote for Biden in my home state. Baby steps. I'll keep breaking down those walls.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on February 07, 2020, 01:07:00 PM
Good luck, Ktb!
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on February 09, 2020, 08:48:39 AM
Splendid rant by Street at counterpunch: fixed game but you gotta play

[Street:] "So what if Sanders’ proposals are conservative in relation to the savage scale of the inequality and environmental destruction ... ?"

"The Democratic establishment is determined to stop Sanders "

"corporate Democrats prefer to lose to ... the demented fascist oligarch Trump than to the moderately left wing of their own party."

"Butiggieg proclaimed himself the Iowa victor with zero precincts reporting last Monday night! How Juan Guaido was that?"

[Krystal Ball]: "The Democratic Party in Iowa has done more to undermine faith in our elections than Russia ever could. "

"Single moms arranged babysitters to participate in this caucus. Nurses gave up shifts, lost 12 hours of pay to participate in this caucus. People rolled in with their wheelchairs.  ... all that time, all that energy could be turned into a giant joke that makes everyone who participated in the process feel like a fool"

"the GOP and Democratic Party insiders seem to almost laugh at the rubes who take this whole thing as serious and sacred."

[Street;] “Democrats ... are afraid that American voters are going to interfere in the 2020 election.”

"sponsors prefer a second fascistic Trump term to a mildly progressive first Sanders one."

"Matthews then incredulously asked Turner is she really believed Bloomberg purchased his way into the presidential debates "

[Gilens and Page:] "the best evidence indicates that the wishes of ordinary Americans actually have had little or no impact on the making of federal government policy.  Wealthy individuals and organized interest groups – especially business corporations – have had much more political clout.  When they are taken into account, it becomes apparent that the general public has been virtually powerless"

[George Carlin:]"The table is tilted, folks. The game is rigged ... it’s called the American Dream … ‘cuz you have to be asleep to believe it."

[Street:]" It makes no sense to give up: you lose nothing by believing ... you lose everything by not believing. "

"First, there’s an (admittedly slim) chance Sanders could prevail "

"Second, doing some work with the Sanders campaign puts you in contact with masses of people "

"Third, even if he doesn’t win, it’s good to make the screwing over of Sanders as transparent and instructive as possible."

[Zinn;] "We are not politicians, but citizens. We have no office to hold on to, only our consciences, which insist on telling the truth."

https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/02/07/the-game-is-rigged/

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on February 09, 2020, 06:14:44 PM
(https://i.redd.it/2lv8coajevf41.jpg)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on February 10, 2020, 08:27:53 AM
Taibbi at rollingstone on Iowa: Yesterday’s really gone.

“They don’t even try to hide it.”

"It was all out war, between ... “the screwers and screwees.” It felt like the same kind of below-the-belt mudslinging progressives used to associate with Republican hitman Lee Atwater."

"In 1993, liberal America sang along at the Bill Clinton inaugural ball with Lindsey Buckingham and Stevie Nicks (and Michael Jackson, whoops)."

" the Blue Party was exposed as an incompetent lobby for doomed elites, dumb crooks with nothing left to offer "
“It was like he [Biden] was waiting for people to tell him what a wonderful person he was,”

"Democratic campaign events have long been more pep rally than discussion, more about the terribleness of Republicans than substance."

"mainstream Democrats may not have changed their policies or strategies much since Trump, but they sure are swearing more "

"there were signs everywhere that the party establishment was scrambling to find someone among the remaining cast members to stop what Kerry called the “reality of Bernie.” "

"But who? Yang said smart things about inequality, so he was out. Tulsi Gabbard was Russian Bernie spawn. Tom Steyer was Dennis Kucinich with money. "

"Was she [Warren] an outsider or an insider? A screwer, or a screwee? Whose side was she on?"

"“It’s like we all have PTSD from 2016,” she said. “There has to be somebody.” "

"Klobuchar is a pure distillation of “electability,” i.e. a Washington reporter’s idea of what a Midwesterner finds charming. "

"“It was like we were back in 2016,” Duffy said. “Except this was worse.” "

“If you’re a millennial, you basically grew up in an era where popular votes are stolen,”

“they’ll do anything to save their careers.

"DNC chair Tom Perez — a triple-talking neurotic who is fast becoming the poster child for everything progressives hate about modern Dems"

" the overall impression was a clown show performance by a political establishment too bored to worry about the appearance of impartiality.  "

“Is it incompetence or corruption? ... I’m not sure it matters. It could be both.”

"Following the wipeout 49-state, 512 electoral vote loss of Walter Mondale in 1984, demoralized Democratic Party leaders felt marooned, between the awesome fundraising power of Ronald Reagan Republicans and the irritant liberalism of Jesse Jackson’s Rainbow Coalition."

"To get out, they sold out. A vanguard of wonks like Al From and Senator Sam Nunn at the Democratic Leadership Council devised a marketing plan: two middle fingers, one in each direction."

"They would steal financial support for Republicans by out-whoring them on economic policy. The left would be kneecapped via “triangulation,” i.e. the public reveling in the lack of choices for poor, minority, and liberal voters."

"Young pols like Bill Clinton learned they could screw constituents and still collect from them. What would they do, vote Republican? Better, the parental scolding of disobedient minorities ... combined with the occasional act of mindless sadism (like the execution of mentally ill Ricky Ray Rector) impressed white “swing” voters, making “triangulation” a huge win-win — more traction in red states, less whining from lefty malcontents."

"Democrats went on to systematically rat-fuck every group in their tent: labor, the poor, minorities, soldiers, criminal defendants, students, homeowners, media consumers, environmentalists, civil libertarians, pensioners — everyone but donors."

"What do you get when you cross a political party that’s sold out for decades, with an electorate that’s been abandoned and treated like trash? Answer: What you fucking deserve!"

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/iowa-caucus-democrats-disaster-trump-sanders-949655/amp/

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on February 11, 2020, 06:31:08 PM
Feudalistic Dispute Between Two Reviled Nobles, 1098, Colorized

Quote
Heartbreaking: The Worst Person You Know Just Made A Great Point

Taliban Trump @realDonaldTrump: "WOW, BLOOMBERG IS A TOTAL RACIST!"

Bloomberg: "They are male, minorities, sixteen to twenty-five"

(https://i.redd.it/cn6ivpjjuag41.jpg)

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on February 14, 2020, 11:02:31 PM
Amazing: AIPAC backs down. Ahmed at Middle East Monitor:

"AIPAC, the anti-Palestinian group issued a full apology for posting an advertisement accusing the Democratic Party of anti-Semitism. "

" “Radicals in the Democratic Party are pushing their anti-Semitic and anti-Israel policies down the throats of the American people,” the lobby group had said on Facebook. "

“unequivocal apology to the overwhelming majority of Democrats”

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20200212-aipac-is-in-a-losing-battle-to-preserve-israels-bipartisan-status-in-america/

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on February 15, 2020, 07:46:34 AM
For the record:

Those "anti-Semitic and anti-Israel policies" are to think that Palestinians have human rights too.

How dare they...
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on February 16, 2020, 06:40:46 AM
How to buy an election. In fact, how to buy all of them:

https://www.fec.gov/data/receipts/individual-contributions/?contributor_name=michael+bloomberg&two_year_transaction_period=2020

(That's the first 30 results. There's many more.)

sidd


Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on February 16, 2020, 08:50:24 AM
(https://i.redd.it/bxsppf7u28h41.jpg)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on February 16, 2020, 02:21:00 PM
Hillarious blumenkraft.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on February 17, 2020, 12:26:52 PM
Thanks, Walrus. :)

Not my idea though, it's stolen from the internet.

Just as the following.

(https://i.redd.it/ta8yb15v2dh41.jpg)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on February 18, 2020, 07:54:00 AM
Levitz at nymag: why kids back bernie

"They proceeded to watch a putatively liberal government bail out the very financial institutions whose malfeasance had birthed the crisis, and then preside over a historically weak recovery that left many a millennial college graduate debt-burdened and underemployed."

" Even as the price of a college diploma has risen nigh-exponentially (thereby forcing the rising generation of college graduates to saddle themselves with onerous debts), the value of such diplomas on the U.S. job market has rapidly depreciated. And there is little reason to believe that this state of affairs will change"

"Most of the work that our society truly needs to get done every day doesn’t require elite academic or intellectual capacities. And thanks to the collapse of the American labor movement, most that blue and pink-collar work pays terribly."

"Tell a subset of your population that they are entitled to economic security if they play by certain rules, provide them with four years of training in critical thinking and access to a world-class library — then deny them the opportunities they were promised, while affixing an anchor of debt around their necks — and you’ve got a recipe for a revolutionary vanguard."

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/02/this-one-chart-explains-why-young-voters-back-bernie-sanders.html

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on February 22, 2020, 10:06:03 AM
Talk from the back of beyond in appalachian ohio

So i'm in this diner with a couple of my drivers, call em Pat and Mike.

Pat's a betting man, he likes to bet (small) on everything, like the next commercial on the TV. Mike dont gamble, quieter, older, deeper.

Pat goes, trying to get a rise out of me, "Hey sidd, wanna put down a case of beer on Sanders winning it all ?"

I dont take the bait : "Come on guys, I'll buy you a damn case tonite after you get the truck in, unload, after you get home."

Mike surprises us both, not least because he rarely says more than a sentence at a time: "Trump won, coz the big money didnt see him coming, didnt figure it out in time to stop him. Now that he's in, they pretty much tied him down, neutralized him, and business is good. He's a money guy, they know how to deal with scammers on the take."

"But now they see Sanders coming, he knows the turf, been round for a long time, knows how DC works. Sanders is much more dangerous to the billionaires than Trump ever was. This time around, they gonna make sure. If nuttn else works, there'll be a bullet with his name on it before he gets to the White House."
 
We all shut up, finished our meal, got back on the road. And, yeah, I dropped off a case.

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on February 22, 2020, 10:34:40 AM
Seriously, that Mike dude has it damn right! Sanders should really have SS protection...

Actually, i'm rather surprised Ilhan Omar and AOC are not dead yet.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on February 27, 2020, 06:15:05 AM
Now this is interesting: AIPAC gets no love

" Sen. Amy Klobuchar and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg both announced Wednesday that they would not attend the Israel lobby's meeting this year"

"Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) was the first Democratic presidential candidate this year to announce she would skip the conference, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) "

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/02/26/watershed-moment-joining-warren-and-sanders-centrist-democrats-klobuchar-and

Mmmm. Money don't buy as much as it used to.

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on February 27, 2020, 06:21:35 AM
Mmmm. Money don't buy as much as it used to

This is a function of Bernie Sanders running for president and pointing out what's wrong!

The man is effective! Imagine what he can do when he is actually in power.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on February 29, 2020, 09:39:45 PM
Google and elections: Slanting the picture

"Buttigieg is leading at 63 percent. Andrew Yang came in second at 46 percent."

" which candidates were able to consistently land in Gmail’s primary inbox "

" email has also become an algorithmically curated and monetized platform"

"If the platforms make it too easy to reach people for free, no one will buy ads. "

https://themarkup.org/google-the-giant/2020/02/26/wheres-my-email

One reason why i run my own mailservers ...

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on March 01, 2020, 08:01:09 PM
The latest rcp polling average listed Biden at 39.7%, Sanders at 24.3%, Steyer at 11.7%, and Buttigieg at 11.3%. The actual results were Biden 48.4%, Sanders 19.8%, Steyer 11.3%, and Buttigieg at 8.2%.  At least the they got Steyer right.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: TerryM on March 01, 2020, 08:32:52 PM
^^
From Wikipedia:

As of at least 2019, RealClearPolitics has consistently been described, and described itself conservative or right-wing. It has been variously called far-right, right-wing, conservative and right-leaning.

Why are we listening to "far-right" opinions regarding the selection of the leadership of their political nemesis's party?
Isn't it likely that Real Clear Politics is attempting to influence Democratic voters in order to have their own candidate, (Trump) elected in November?

I think that RCP presenting polls showing a Biden surge indicate that the opposite is probably truth. Their fear of a Sanders win in November is palpable.
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on March 01, 2020, 08:55:40 PM
'We' don't do that, Terry. The Walrus does it.  ;)

And also, Steyer isn't even running anymore.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on March 01, 2020, 09:53:02 PM
^^
From Wikipedia:

As of at least 2019, RealClearPolitics has consistently been described, and described itself conservative or right-wing. It has been variously called far-right, right-wing, conservative and right-leaning.

Why are we listening to "far-right" opinions regarding the selection of the leadership of their political nemesis's party?
Isn't it likely that Real Clear Politics is attempting to influence Democratic voters in order to have their own candidate, (Trump) elected in November?

I think that RCP presenting polls showing a Biden surge indicate that the opposite is probably truth. Their fear of a Sanders win in November is palpable.
Terry

Why are you listening to Wikipedia over legitimate non-biased sites?  Like 538, realclearpolitics conducts no polling of their own, but analyze the results of other polling institutions.  I find it interesting that you have not criticized the inclusion of rap results in other posts.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on March 01, 2020, 10:00:50 PM
FYI, in 2016 rcp overestimated Clinton’s vote margin by 1.3%, and underestimated total Republican candidates by 1.7%.  Slightly to the left of the 538 predictions.  Hardly a right-wing slant as erroneously claimed.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: TerryM on March 01, 2020, 10:23:05 PM

Why are you listening to Wikipedia over legitimate non-biased sites?  Like 538, realclearpolitics conducts no polling of their own, but analyze the results of other polling institutions.  I find it interesting that you have not criticized the inclusion of rap results in other posts.


It's their analyzes that I object to. :)
I don't expect conservatives to pay attention to my suggestions as to who their leaders should be, but neither do I see why we should be concerned when they try to have an effect on our leadership race.
Pretending Realclear Politics is anything other than an advocacy group for the same powers that fight against a wider understanding of AGW is disingenuous.


I'm of the belief that the coronavirus will kill Trump's bid for reelection. This makes choosing the right candidate to fly our colors extremely important. The candidate chosen in the Democratic Primary will almost certainly become the next POTUS.


Will we select a progressive candidate that can bring our party back to its roots, or will we allow a Republican Lite candidate to placate the disillusioned Right?
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on March 01, 2020, 11:07:57 PM
Terry,
I guess it your claim of advocacy to which I object.  Even Nate silvers considers them a worthy site.  I am not talking about their opinions, just their polling analysis, which I find to be quite good and unbiased.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on March 02, 2020, 06:57:53 AM
Klondike Kat (aka The Walrus), you are cherrypicking again. This is how we know you.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: colchonero on March 02, 2020, 12:34:02 PM
RCP (polling data not website news) is just a place where you can see polls without having to google every single one personally and separetely. It's not like they have any influence on the numbers, they don't even do polls. You can calculate poll averages on your own, and the result would be the same. Math is math.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 02, 2020, 12:42:00 PM
Klondike Kat (aka The Walrus), you are cherrypicking again. This is how we know you.
A lot of people cherry-pick. On the cosmoquest forum sock puppets are routinely banned so I imagine they can be recognized by the administrators or moderators of this forum too.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on March 02, 2020, 12:55:05 PM
colch...it is something of a truism that statistics can very easily be made to lie.

There are all sorts of decisions that go into coming up with these aggregated poll numbers. Do you include polls that are known to be flawed or biased? Do you weight polls according to how accurate or inaccurate they have been in the past...

All these decisions and more involve judgment, and judgment can be easily influenced by political bias.

I do look at aggregate polling at RealClear and 538, but always with a good dose of salt.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on March 02, 2020, 04:00:39 PM
RCP (polling data not website news) is just a place where you can see polls without having to google every single one personally and separetely. It's not like they have any influence on the numbers, they don't even do polls. You can calculate poll averages on your own, and the result would be the same. Math is math.

Some posters here do not like to use all the polls, because some of them do not show their preferred candidate doing as well as they like.  They prefer to cherry-pick their own polls.  Ironically, they refer to those who choose to examine all the data as cherry-pickers. lol
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 02, 2020, 04:18:51 PM
RCP (polling data not website news) is just a place where you can see polls without having to google every single one personally and separetely. It's not like they have any influence on the numbers, they don't even do polls. You can calculate poll averages on your own, and the result would be the same. Math is math.

Some posters here do not like to use all the polls, because some of them do not show their preferred candidate doing as well as they like.  They prefer to cherry-pick their own polls.  Ironically, they refer to those who choose to examine all the data as cherry-pickers. lol
There is only one poll I care about.
The one on November 3.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on March 03, 2020, 08:42:52 AM
Status of the democratic race 02.03.2020

(https://i.redd.it/xs20xcizxck41.jpg)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: colchonero on March 03, 2020, 03:37:40 PM
Oh boy, polling and models are all over the place. Predicitons too. Everything changes like every hour.Some have Bernie something like 900v300, others like Nate Silver have now solid Biden plurality forecasted after 50 states. It's impossible to track anything right now, any analysis or twitter. Too many unknowns; impact of drop outs and endorsments, who will be viable where, and by how much, it's just to many things right now, that are uncertain, cause there wasn't enough time after SC for any average or conclusion to be made. It's everybody's game. No result would shock me, I don't think anyone knows what will happen. 14 states, 3 dropouts, 1 big win, states with almost no connection like Minnesota and Alabama, viability, impact on Warren and Bloomberg %, bow much of Pete and Klobuchar voters will go to Biden, and all of this in just 2 days.

The least predictable Super Tuesday in a long time. Not just who will win which state, but also by how much, who will be viable, how many delegates will candidates carry from each state. And it's not like, will somebody carry 15 or 18, the spectrum is huge.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on March 03, 2020, 04:11:20 PM
Oh boy, polling and models are all over the place. Predicitons too. Everything changes like every hour.Some have Bernie something like 900v300, others like Nate Silver have now solid Biden plurality forecasted after 50 states. It's impossible to track anything right now, any analysis or twitter. To many unknowns; impact of drop outs and endorsments, who will be viable where, and by how much, it's just to many things right now, that are uncertain, cause there wasn't enough time after SC for any average or conclusion to be made. It's everybody's game. No result would shock me, I don't think anyone knows what will happen. 14 states, 3 dropouts, 1 big win, states with almost no connection like Minnesota and Alabama, viability, impact on Warren and Bloomberg %, bow much of Pete and Klobuchar voters will go to Biden, and all of this in just 2 days.

The least predictable Super Tuesday in a long time. Not just who will win which state, but also by how much, who will be viable, how many delegates will candidates carry from each state. And it's not like, will somebody carry 15 or 18, the spectrum is huge.

So true.  All polls released have been conducted with several of the candidates which have dropped out recently.  The best than can be ascertained (and it is tenuous at best) is to sum up the support for Sanders/Warren/Steyer/Gabbard and compare it to Biden/Bloomberg/Buttigieg/Klobuchar to get a feel for the left/center breakdown in the electorate.  That will be the real fight should the convention be brokered. 

Many have already voted via absentee ballots, so they casts their votes before the aforementioned candidates dropped out.  Not to mention that those names are still on the ballots today.  Of real interest is how well Warren and Bloomberg perform.  I suspect that Warren will outperform expectations, while Bloomberg underperforms.  But what do I know?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on March 03, 2020, 08:12:14 PM
Nate Silvers is forecasting almost an even split between Sanders and Biden tonight.  Sanders is expected to win (in order, starting from most likely) Vermont, California, Colorado, Maine, Utah, Minnesota, and Massachusetts.  The last two good be shaky as there are the home states of Warren and Klobuchar.  In order, Biden is expected to win Virginia, North Carolina, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Texas.  The delegate count is tougher to predict; Biden is expected to exceed the 15% threshold in every state, but Sanders is expected to fall short in a few.  Additionally, it depends on how Warren and Bloomberg perform. 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-final-forecast-for-super-tuesday-shows-bidens-surge-and-lots-of-uncertainty/
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on March 05, 2020, 06:54:28 AM
Beto O'Rourke Has NO IDEA Why He Endorsed Joe Biden

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LasWCiICvAg
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Alexander555 on April 04, 2020, 12:04:10 PM
If you look at that article from nanning yesterday. With these afro-americans begging for food. Who would be their best possible political friend ? Not the democrates, they are open border globalists. Their voters are globalists, illegals, refugees send by the UN.....They are all people that want to bring their families to the US. That is something they don't have in common with these afro americans that are already in the US for many generations. And the republicans are also not going to be their friends. Because they are infected with the same virus of globalist corruption. They all just make the swamp bigger and bigger. Their best option is Trump. Together they could get 80 % of the votes.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on April 04, 2020, 02:02:36 PM
Middle Age Riot on Twitter:
Quote
@middleageriot

Nobody voted for Donald Trump because they thought he was
a skilled communicator, charismatic leader, creative problem
solver, brilliant intellect, or selfless humanitarian.

They voted for him because he hated the same people they
did.

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 04, 2020, 02:57:17 PM
Middle Age Riot on Twitter:
Quote
@middleageriot

Nobody voted for Donald Trump because they thought he was
a skilled communicator, charismatic leader, creative problem
solver, brilliant intellect, or selfless humanitarian.

They voted for him because he hated the same people they
did.


blumencraft, you know that is BS because you know that is not why I voted for him.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on April 04, 2020, 03:12:12 PM
Send you a PM, Tom.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Pmt111500 on April 06, 2020, 06:33:19 PM
Some Republicans are saying they now see what a dolt their President is. They might be lying to create a false sense of security in rather inactive democrats. I'd suggest democrats to trust, a bit, to a republican if he/she publishes a photo of voting ballot with proof of voting against all republicans. Voter ID should be included in the photo unless they can produce a birth certificate.

Please get rid of electronic voting machines and burn any state legislators suggesting using these on a stake. They are evil and you don't get to heaven, if you allow them to overvoltage the vote counting machines so zero is one.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on April 06, 2020, 06:37:34 PM
Voting is supposed to be anonymous! It's anti-democratic if you have record of who voted how.

100% agreement on the voting machines. They are inherently manipulatable so the results must be considered manipulated.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on April 10, 2020, 01:56:12 AM
The loser vote: A Sanders supporter explains

"we are only ever one thing, namely losers."
"We are losers when we wake up and losers when we lay down to sleep. "

"That is why we are fighting for real things like healthcare and housing. It’s why we’re so fierce."

"go to McDonald’s for lunch and see, at the deep fryer, a man who is way too old to be working for minimum wage, you know exactly what a Sanders presidency would do for him, likewise if your coworker is sick and still coming to work because she’s out of sick days, likewise if your friend lost his job and cannot make his student loan payments. We do not need compassion."

https://medium.com/@srwm1138/im-a-bernie-volunteer-here-s-how-joe-biden-can-win-bernie-voters-6da47bbf4d52

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on April 10, 2020, 07:28:13 PM
The simple matter is that Biden received more votes among Democrats than Sanders.  I am not convinced that Biden will lose more Sanders voters than Clinton, Clinton was less liked.  Biden is likely to win back many of the black voters that Clinton lost.  That would likely be enough to push him past Trump.  If not, the independent voters, who refused to vote for Clinton, would push him over the top.  Sanders would be less likely to win these voters, and probably lose the general election. 
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on April 11, 2020, 06:46:10 AM
Re:  Sanders

Its over. Biden is the nominee unless DNC pulls a switch. I was addressing the question of Biden recruiting Sanders supporters. I see he wants to lower medicare availability age to 60 and forgive a large fraction of student loans, so that might help.

But then Obama promised a lot too ... one of the first tells was when he publicly denounced telecom immunity and then voted for it ... before he was president.

We shall see. Biden has a terrible record. If he beats Trump, which I doubt, one key will be who is Treasury Sec. When i saw obama's picks i knew a hard decade was coming.

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on April 11, 2020, 03:30:48 PM
Re:  Sanders

Its over. Biden is the nominee unless DNC pulls a switch. I was addressing the question of Biden recruiting Sanders supporters. I see he wants to lower medicare availability age to 60 and forgive a large fraction of student loans, so that might help.

But then Obama promised a lot too ... one of the first tells was when he publicly denounced telecom immunity and then voted for it ... before he was president.

We shall see. Biden has a terrible record. If he beats Trump, which I doubt, one key will be who is Treasury Sec. When i saw obama's picks i knew a hard decade was coming.

sidd

Those are just campaign promises.  They sound good to the intended audience, but never make it any further.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on April 13, 2020, 10:50:21 PM
Frank at harper's on the history of populism:

" “Populism” is the word that comes to the lips of the respectable and the highly educated when they perceive the global system going haywire. "

"Ordinary people are agitated—everyone knows this—but our concern must lie with the well-being of the elites whom the people threaten to topple."

" if the people have lost faith in the ones in charge, it can only be because something has gone wrong with the people themselves."

" Populism was also said to be the mysterious force that had permitted the self-identified outsider Bernie Sanders to do so well in the Democratic primaries. Populism was also the name of the mass delusion that was leading the United Kingdom out of the European Union. Indeed, once you started looking, unauthorized troublemakers could be seen trouncing rightful ruling classes in countries all around the world. Populists were misleading people about globalization. Populists were saying mean things about elites. Populists were subverting traditional institutions of government. And populists were winning."

"Foreign Policy expressed it more archly: it’s time for the elites to rise up against the ignorant masses."

"His [Trump's] victory that November happened thanks to the Electoral College, an anti-populist instrument from long ago, but this irony quickly receded into the background. "

"the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, an organization whose website announces that populists “can pose a real threat to democracy itself.” "

" In the fertile valley of the Kansas River ... somewhere in this bucolic setting that the controversial word “populist” was invented ... in May 1891.

"Could they have peeked into the future, that group of Topeka-bound passengers would have been astonished by the international reach and malign interpretations of their deed. That they were inventing a noun signifying “mob-minded hater of all things decent” would have come as a complete surprise to them. By coining the word “populist,” they intended to christen a movement that was brave and noble and fair—that would stand up to the narrow-minded and the intolerant."

"The People’s Party was the official moniker of the organization these men nicknamed, and it was one of America’s first great economic-political uprisings, a quintessential mass movement, in which rank-and-file Americans learned to think of the country’s inequitable economic system as a thing they might change by common effort. The party offered a glimpse of how citizens of a democracy, born with a faith in equality, could react when the brutal hierarchy of conventional arrangements was no longer tolerable."

"It was also our country’s final serious effort at breaking the national duopoly of the Republicans and Democrats."

"This bid for reform came during a period of unregulated corporate monopolies, in-your-face corruption, and crushing currency deflation"

" they had a platform, a cause, millions of potential constituents, and the ringing Jeffersonian slogan “Equal rights to all, special privileges to none.” "

"At the time of its premiere, “populist” was a term without ambiguity."

"it protested poverty, unbearable debt, monopoly, and corruption, and it looked ahead to the day when these were ended by the political actions of the people themselves. "

"Up until then, mainstream politicians in America had by and large taken the virtues of that system for granted—society’s winners won, those politicians believed, because they were better people, because they had prevailed in a rational and supremely fair contest called free enterprise. The Populists were the ones who blasted those smug assumptions to pieces, forcing the country to acknowledge that ordinary Americans were being ruined by an economic system that in fact answered to no moral laws."

" There was Populism as its proponents understood it: a movement in which ordinary working people demanded democratic economic reforms. And there was Populism as its enemies characterized it: a dangerous movement of groundless resentment in which demagogues led the disreputable."

" the insults and accusations with which Populism was received in 1891 are alive and well. You can read them in best-selling books, watch them flashed on PowerPoints at prestigious foundation conferences ... Populist movements, they will tell you, are mob actions; reformers are bigots; their leaders are blatherskites; their followers are mentally ill, or ignorant, or uncouth at the very least. They are cranks; they are troublemakers; they are deplorables. And, yes, they still have hayseed in their hair."

"a highbrow contempt for ordinary Americans—is as virulent today as it was in the Victorian era."

" the Populists believed in progress and modernity as emphatically as did any big-city architect or engineer of their day ... the era’s great champions of protectionism were in fact big business and the Republicans. It was William Jennings Bryan’s Democrats who were the true-believing free-traders of the period. "

"The Pops did not fear government, as we are often told populists do; they wanted it to grow big and strong. The Pops did not hate ideas; they meant to spread knowledge to the farthest corners of the land. The Pops were not socially regressive; they were unique among the major parties of their time in boasting numerous female leaders. Again and again, upon investigation, the hateful tendencies that we are told make up this frightful worldview are either absent from historical Populism or are the opposite of what it stood and stands for, or else far more accurately describe the people who hated Populism and who have opposed it ever since the 1890s."

"Populism in its original formulation was profoundly, achingly democratic; it was also, by the standards of the time, anti-demagogic, pro-enlightenment, and pro-equality. "

" denunciations of populism like the ones we hear so frequently nowadays are part of a long tradition of pessimism about popular sovereignty and democratic participation. "

"The Republicans ... prevailed. They contrived to crush Bryan’s challenge and, in so doing, to build a lasting stereotype of reform as folly. The word with which they expressed that stereotype: “populism.” "

"Then as now, consensus among elites was the primary weapon of the anti-populist resistance ...  the harmony with which the nation’s press came together against the Democratic challenger. Similar unanimity reigned in fashionable churches and in prestige academia."

"“Populism” was a word used to express the horror of seeing hierarchies collapse and the lowly clamber to places where they did not belong. "

"anti-populism is always a brief for elite and even aristocratic power, an attack on the democratic tradition itself. "

"The larger message of anti-populism, regardless of where it comes from on the political spectrum, is always one of complacency. Elites rule us because elites should rule us. They are in charge because they are the best."

"the real task before us today: to rescue from the enormous condescension of the comfortable the one political tradition that has a chance of reversing our decades-long turn to the right."

https://harpers.org/archive/2020/04/how-the-anti-populists-stopped-bernie-sanders/

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Pmt111500 on April 15, 2020, 08:21:26 PM
David Pakman made a poll in his YouTube channel asking if not voting Biden is irresponsible now when Bernie has dropped out.
59% said yes
30% said no
11% stand on the fence.
Comments on the poll are rather nice. Almost felt like some European discussion on politics. Doesn't look too good on Biden.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on April 16, 2020, 03:46:45 PM
David Pakman made a poll in his YouTube channel asking if not voting Biden is irresponsible now when Bernie has dropped out.
59% said yes
30% said no
11% stand on the fence.
Comments on the poll are rather nice. Almost felt like some European discussion on politics. Doesn't look too good on Biden.

I think that Biden will make up the difference among the independent voters who moved over to the Trump side in 2016.  Many of the Obama voters will come back to support Biden.  As long as a strong leftish third-party candidate joins the fray, he should do fine.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ken Feldman on April 16, 2020, 10:55:45 PM
Based on the results of the Wisconsin primary held on April 7th, Democrats are willing to risk thier lives to throw Trump out of office.

Republicans tried mightily to suppress the voter turnout in the Wisconsin primary election, using courts (including the US Supreme Court) to deny the Democrat Governor's requests to delay the elections to June due to the Covid crisis.  Their efforts failed as the Democrats won a key state Supreme Court race.

Needless to say, this is a very bad sign for Trump's re-election, as Wisconsin is a key battleground state.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-wisconsin/results-of-wisconsins-chaotic-election-to-be-made-public-on-monday-idUSKCN21V0QR (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-wisconsin/results-of-wisconsins-chaotic-election-to-be-made-public-on-monday-idUSKCN21V0QR)

Quote
April 13, 2020
In upset for Republicans, liberal ousts Trump-backed judge for Wisconsin Supreme Court seat
John Whitesides

(Reuters) - Liberal challenger Jill Karofsky won a hotly contested race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court on Monday, beating a conservative incumbent in state elections marred by court challenges and worries about health risks from the coronavirus pandemic.

Quote
The tumultuous process in Wisconsin, which featured an explosion in absentee balloting and long lines of voters braving health risks and stay-at-home orders, was seen as a potential preview of the national election in November if the pandemic lingers.

Quote
State Republicans had warned of possible fraud and administrative issues if the elections were delayed. But Democrats said Republicans primarily wanted to keep down turnout in the race, particularly in Democratic-dominated urban areas such as Milwaukee, where a lack of workers meant the closure of all but five of the city’s usual 180 polling places.

Karofsky more than doubled Kelly’s vote totals in Milwaukee, and outpaced recent Democratic performances in many swing and conservative counties in an encouraging sign for Democrats looking toward the Nov. 3 general election. Trump’s upset win in Wisconsin in 2016 helped propel him to the White House.

In Winnebago County in east-central Wisconsin, for example, Trump beat Democrat Hillary Clinton by 7 percentage points in the 2016 presidential election, but Karofsky won by more than 8 percentage points.

Quote
Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez said in a Monday call with reporters the decision to hold in-person voting last week was “voter suppression on steroids,” forcing thousands to choose between casting a ballot or staying at home to avoid infection.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Pmt111500 on April 17, 2020, 07:09:53 AM
Foolish to think there are independents, since everything is politics, they say.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on April 17, 2020, 08:32:39 AM
Greens reaching for sanders supporters: Online contributions to the Green Party tripled after Sanders’ capitulated

"offering Sanders supporters a “home” that is fully-aligned with their core issues, such as bold action to avert a climate catastrophe, implementing Improved and Expanded Medicare-For-All, and abolishing student debt ... expressed sympathy for Sanders supporters who had been “abused and marginalized” by the corporate-leaning Democratic National Committee leadership"

"It’s time for people to see that backing progressive candidates in the ‘Democratic’ Party is a dead end"

https://www.blackagendareport.com/sanders-supporters-pledge-demexit-and-greenenter-make-home-party-shares-their-core-values

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on April 17, 2020, 09:06:56 AM
If i was a US voter, voting third party might be the way i would go.

If you really want to generate leverage, a third party needs to have substantial support (15-20% at least). Dems and Reps both must be scared loosing too many votes this way. This is the only way you get them to listen.

The downside with this approach is that it might (likely will) help the orange fascist to get reelected.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on April 17, 2020, 03:49:22 PM
Many people downplay the influence that third parties have had in recent elections, but the opposite is true.  While not amassing anywhere near the 19% Ross Perot received in 1992, helping Bill Clinton become president, or the 14% (and 45 EVs) George Wallace amassed in 1968, vaulting Richard Nixon into the Oval Office, third party candidates have influence two recent elections.  The first was 2000.  Even though Ralph Nader received less than 3% of the vote, it was enough to influence the outcome in Florida, and ultimately, the election.  More recently in 2016, Gary Johnson was polling close to 10%, before falling to just over 3% in the final tally.  Had people not jumped ship and voted for Trump, Hillary Clinton would likely be president.  Those are the voters that the Democrats need to win back in 2020.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on April 17, 2020, 11:33:33 PM
If i was a US voter, voting third party might be the way i would go.

If you really want to generate leverage, a third party needs to have substantial support (15-20% at least). Dems and Reps both must be scared loosing too many votes this way. This is the only way you get them to listen.

The downside with this approach is that it might (likely will) help the orange fascist to get reelected.
The Tea Party completely changed the GOP, so what you need is a very progressive congress. Voting third party is a wasted vote. I do think a third party will decide the election. Most likely the Libertarian party. I think they will get a lot of votes from disgruntled republicans who can't vote for a Democrat.

Let's hope the Green party doesn't take it away again from the Democrats like they did in 2016. Ironically, that would be very bad for the climate if Trump got reelected with the help from the Green Party...
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: TerryM on April 18, 2020, 12:45:06 AM

sidd

I'd prefer a Green vote to staying at home & I can't bring myself to support either of the major party selections.


With a gun at my head I'd opt for Trump over Biden based primarily on voting for the Devil that I know.


What will Biden be studying for the next 4 years? I can't imagine him getting the best of xi, Putin, or even Johnson or Duarty.


As President Trump has been an ignorant bully.
What will Biden be like in 4 months or 4 years?


Who will Biden's Oliver North be?


Wili's point that Trump hasn't started any large shoot-em-ups is also a consideration. He may end up starting one, but at least we know that war isn't his first choice.
Terry
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on April 18, 2020, 08:03:37 AM
Kruse at politico on Trump:

"Trump has built an astonishingly consistent record of surviving crises, of dodging the comeuppance everyone assumes is coming his way, and then turning seeming calamity into his next great opportunity—and emerging not just intact but emboldened."

"Trump’s aghast critics see a president backed into a corner, desperate and unmanned, in a frantic, final freefall. But people who’ve watched him for years, who’ve witnessed the dizzying pivots, the great escapes, the gobsmacking victories in the face of arguably more unforgiving audiences than American voters—what they see is Trump deploying tools and tactics that have worked before and could work again. "

"Because the contest at hand is not only between Trump and the ravages of Covid-19, or Trump and “Democrat” governors, or Trump and any of the reporters spread out in the seats in the briefing room these evenings at the White House. All of it is part of the larger war for Trump between the numbers and the narrative."

"he’s pretty darn media-savvy, and he’s working this right now almost brilliantly to the extent that he realizes the value of putting himself out there every day"

"He’s spinning this every day now: 2 million would have died if it wasn’t for me"

"Attention can be good or bad, but a central gambit of the life of Trump is that that’s actually not true. That it’s all good. That attention is power. That if you’re watching, he’s winning."

" “Americans are suckers for a good story,” he said. “Donald Trump is going to give ‘em a good story.” "

" Don’t believe Trump can win? “Talk to President Hillary Clinton,” "

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/17/donald-trump-escape-crisis-bankruptcy-coronavirus-casino-trumpology-183513

I've been watching Trump since the 80s when he was just another brash young new york tax cheat. Fascination of the horrible, i suppose. His rise tells more about society than himself. If you're watching, he's winning.

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: kassy on April 18, 2020, 01:06:37 PM
re 299: you could argue he other way if you would think about the supreme court?

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on April 18, 2020, 03:00:08 PM
Let's hope the Green party doesn't take it away again from the Democrats like they did in 2016. Ironically, that would be very bad for the climate if Trump got reelected with the help from the Green Party...

Except that Jill Stein took more votes away from Trump than Clinton, and that a lot of people who voted for Stein, would've stayed at home otherwise.

But even if what you say, is true, this means that if the Green Party is that powerful, maybe the Democratic nominee would be wise to try and win their votes by offering them something? They can't, because concentrated wealth comes first.

Talking about irony.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on April 18, 2020, 04:03:21 PM
If i was a US voter, voting third party might be the way i would go.

If you really want to generate leverage, a third party needs to have substantial support (15-20% at least). Dems and Reps both must be scared loosing too many votes this way. This is the only way you get them to listen.

The downside with this approach is that it might (likely will) help the orange fascist to get reelected.
The Tea Party completely changed the GOP, so what you need is a very progressive congress. Voting third party is a wasted vote. I do think a third party will decide the election. Most likely the Libertarian party. I think they will get a lot of votes from disgruntled republicans who can't vote for a Democrat.

Let's hope the Green party doesn't take it away again from the Democrats like they did in 2016. Ironically, that would be very bad for the climate if Trump got reelected with the help from the Green Party...

The Green Party had very little effect on the election.  The only state that Clinton had a good chance to win without Jill Stein in the race would have been Michigan.  Two other states were decided by less than the total number of votes cast for the Green Party.  The Green vote would need to split 87/13 in favor of Clinton, for her to win Wisconsin, and 95/5 to win Pennsylvania.  I seriously doubt that Clinton could possibly have won that great of a share of the Green vote.  The Libertarian party candidate, Gary Johnson, received three times the number of vote as Jill Stein, and had a greater effect on the outcome.  If you add all the Libertarian votes to Trump, and all the Green votes to Clinton, Trump would win the popular vote!  As I stated earlier, if the Libertarian voters had not gotten cold feet, and switched over to Trump at the last minute, Clinton would be president now.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on April 18, 2020, 06:41:08 PM
Let's hope the Green party doesn't take it away again from the Democrats like they did in 2016. Ironically, that would be very bad for the climate if Trump got reelected with the help from the Green Party...

Except that Jill Stein took more votes away from Trump than Clinton, and that a lot of people who voted for Stein, would've stayed at home otherwise.

But even if what you say, is true, this means that if the Green Party is that powerful, maybe the Democratic nominee would be wise to try and win their votes by offering them something? They can't, because concentrated wealth comes first.

Talking about irony.
You're arguing politics in a binary vote...

You're either with us, or against us... Remember that one?

All those who went out to vote in 2016 for the Green party hated Hillary so much that they lost sight of the consequences of a Trump presidency...

I vote extreme left, for the Belgian marxists party PVDA. But in my heart I'm a social liberal. Basic income for all and small government. But Belgium isn't America... We don't have a two party system here.

Should there be a more party system in America? HELL YEAH! But that's not todays fight...

What American progressives need now is a progressive congress. The president has always been a puppet, so vote for the right puppet masters!
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on April 18, 2020, 06:46:49 PM
Basic income for all and small government.

Those are contradictory, mate. :P

Quote
Should there be a more party system in America? HELL YEAH! But that's not todays fight...

I tend to agree (at least i was until recently), but what's the timeline and strategy? What's the leverage?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on April 18, 2020, 07:04:02 PM
If i was a US voter, voting third party might be the way i would go.

If you really want to generate leverage, a third party needs to have substantial support (15-20% at least). Dems and Reps both must be scared loosing too many votes this way. This is the only way you get them to listen.

The downside with this approach is that it might (likely will) help the orange fascist to get reelected.
The Tea Party completely changed the GOP, so what you need is a very progressive congress. Voting third party is a wasted vote. I do think a third party will decide the election. Most likely the Libertarian party. I think they will get a lot of votes from disgruntled republicans who can't vote for a Democrat.

Let's hope the Green party doesn't take it away again from the Democrats like they did in 2016. Ironically, that would be very bad for the climate if Trump got reelected with the help from the Green Party...

The Green Party had very little effect on the election.  The only state that Clinton had a good chance to win without Jill Stein in the race would have been Michigan.  Two other states were decided by less than the total number of votes cast for the Green Party.  The Green vote would need to split 87/13 in favor of Clinton, for her to win Wisconsin, and 95/5 to win Pennsylvania.  I seriously doubt that Clinton could possibly have won that great of a share of the Green vote.  The Libertarian party candidate, Gary Johnson, received three times the number of vote as Jill Stein, and had a greater effect on the outcome.  If you add all the Libertarian votes to Trump, and all the Green votes to Clinton, Trump would win the popular vote!  As I stated earlier, if the Libertarian voters had not gotten cold feet, and switched over to Trump at the last minute, Clinton would be president now.
I don't want to relitigate the last elections. Smarter people than me wrote heaps of books about that.

I think the Libertarian party will play a key role in this years elections. More so than the Green party, because the trouble is on the right! Those who can't vote for Trump, or a democrat, will vote Libertarian, and IMHO that will be the birth of a viable third party in America.

You'll have the extreme right wing fascists - like we had here for a long time in Europe - voting for the Trump party, and "moderates" voting for the libertarian party. This leaves the door open for the Democratic party to become more progressive.

The Green party would kill that dream...
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on April 18, 2020, 07:17:44 PM
Basic income for all and small government.
Those are contradictory, mate. :P
Not really. In Belgium we have unemployment money, pensions, disability, sick leave, and so many more payments. All those will disappear with basic income. You could get rid of the entire administration that keeps track of all those unemployed or sick people. You just give people money, good (mental)healthcare, and education. For anything else, people will be free from government oversight.

But now we're going OT again...  ;)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on April 18, 2020, 08:12:55 PM
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/04/the-gop-has-become-a-death-cult/

GOP has become a death cult

American conservatism—the so-called “culture of life”—worships annihilation.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on April 22, 2020, 06:31:24 PM
So, the GOP is overtaking the Dems on the left by airing the 'Pelosi ice-cream' ad.

The DNC is overtaking the GOP on the right by airing the 'scapegoat China' ad.

And a conservative group is airing anti Trump ads, endorsing Joe Biden.

This might seem Kafkaesque at the first look. Looking at Biden's policies though, this makes total sense. The US can still have its structural racism, its libertarian economy, its oligarchy with a more likable face. Little will change with Biden, but he at least doesn't speak the silent parts out loud all the time.

Doh!
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Pmt111500 on April 23, 2020, 05:17:36 AM
Well, stealing a Kenyan Nursery Song is par on course in US Elections

https://youtu.be/TkU1ob_lHCw
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 23, 2020, 12:42:21 PM
Pmt111500

That's another entry in my "Evolution of the Lion Sleeps Tonight" post back on the Good Music thread!
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on May 01, 2020, 06:27:53 PM
An interesting development is occurring with the IBD/TIPP polling.  Biden and Trump are in a dead heat.  Many may not remember, but this is the same poll that showed Clinton and Trump in a dead heat on the eve of the 2016 election.  A month ago, this same poll had Biden ahead by 6 points. 
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ken Feldman on May 01, 2020, 08:50:05 PM
The shape of the stimulus package to recover from the recession would probably be very different if the GOP holds the White House and Senate than if the Democrats can take those offices.  Consider whether the government decides to invest in renewables or instead nationalize (I'm sorry, take an equity interest in) oil companies.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/25/joe-biden-green-stimulus-207848 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/25/joe-biden-green-stimulus-207848)

Quote
Biden wants a new stimulus 'a hell of a lot bigger' than $2 trillion

In an interview, the 2020 candidate courts the progressive left by calling for a huge, new green infrastructure bill—while hammering banks, and Trump.

Joe Biden wants a more progressive approach to economic stimulus legislation than Washington has taken so far, including much stricter oversight of the Trump administration, much tougher conditions on business bailouts and long-term investments in infrastructure and climate that have so far been largely absent from congressional debates.

Quote
Still, Biden suggested that after four rounds of legislation designed primarily to stanch the economic bleeding, the next round should include more forward-looking investments that could help the economy start to recover and grow once the virus is contained. He suggested a “trillion-dollar infrastructure program that can be implemented really rapidly,” as well as “dealing with environmental things that create good-paying jobs.”

Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell have suggested that “green stimulus” would be a nonstarter with Republicans, but Biden said investments in light rail, clean drinking water, and half a million electric vehicle chargers on the nation’s highways could help retool the economy for the future.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on June 03, 2020, 06:37:13 AM
Biden on the Grand Canyon: (this is not the onion)

" consultants have suggested that an enormous virtual version of their candidate for president could be projected over the Grand Canyon."

"exclusive musical content from some of the biggest musical artists in the game at these, driving eyeballs"

“Give America a giant avatar of President Obama introducing another avatar of Joe Biden while they stand amidst a digital rendering of America through the ages,”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/joe-biden-fortnite-hologram-democratic-convention-grand-canyon-travis-scott-a9510001.html

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Pmt111500 on June 03, 2020, 10:26:11 PM
Trump is so going to win this election. Pouring tear gas over non-voting demonstrators is of no consequence.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Phoenix on June 11, 2020, 05:05:39 PM
Latest election outlook per RCP.

Biden +8.1 nationally

Dems 214-190 in the House w/ 31 tossups.

GOP 49-46 in the Senate w/ 5 tossups (in case of 50/50 split, VP determines which party gets the chairmanships)

Biden is cruising, this election is all about Trump and a few key senate races in Montana, Michigan, Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina and Maine.

Like Biden, Democrats lead by 8 points nationally. The only way the GOP maintains power is through the byzantine Senate quasi-apartheid system. States w/ less than 1M people get the same representation as California with ~ 40M people.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on June 12, 2020, 06:55:21 PM
270towin has somewhat similar with Republicans 50, Democrats 46, and 4 tossups in the Senate.

https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/

While you may argue with the system, it was designed to prevent states like California from having too much influence.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Phoenix on June 14, 2020, 07:06:22 PM
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/502623-ernst-challenger-leads-by-three-points-in-tight-iowa-senate-race

The Iowa senate seat is surprisingly competitive in a state Trump carried easily in 2016. The Democratic challenger is leading by 3 points in this poll.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on June 15, 2020, 12:54:36 AM
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/502623-ernst-challenger-leads-by-three-points-in-tight-iowa-senate-race

The Iowa senate seat is surprisingly competitive in a state Trump carried easily in 2016. The Democratic challenger is leading by 3 points in this poll.

It is not surprising at all.  Obama carried Iowa in both elections by 9% and 6%.  Iowa was split in the previous two elections, supporting Bush in '04 and Gore in 200, but both were by less than 1%.  Clinton won Iowa in both his elections and Dukakis carried the state in 1988.  Overall, Democrats won the state six out of the past elections, even though Democrats only won the presidential in four of those elections.  During the past eight elections, Iowa has supported the Democratic candidate by an average of 4%.  Therefore, a 3% Democratic lead seems right in line with the averages.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Phoenix on June 15, 2020, 09:15:21 AM
In the 270towin analysis that you shared above Walrus, this Iowa  seat is counted among the 50 projected to go to the GOP.

So. perhaps a Democrat leading this race is a surprise to somebody.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: PragmaticAntithesis on June 15, 2020, 03:41:26 PM
I think the polls are showing a temporary bump for Democrats, as there is a huge virus crisis and civil unrest under a GOP administration. As the COVID restrictions break (for better or worse) and the protests subside, I think the GOP will get their lead back.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on June 15, 2020, 09:03:13 PM
In the 270towin analysis that you shared above Walrus, this Iowa  seat is counted among the 50 projected to go to the GOP.

So. perhaps a Democrat leading this race is a surprise to somebody.

Yes, but basing it solely on Trump's performance in 2016 seems a little short-sighted.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on June 15, 2020, 10:08:37 PM
Trump is so going to win this election. Pouring tear gas over non-voting demonstrators is of no consequence.
I'm not sure if you're serious, or just joking, but that's my fear as well... I already wrote this in the Biden thread, that there's one thing that gives me hope. Trump fucks up just about anything he tries to do. Last time he tried to lose, and he won. Now he's actually trying to win...
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on June 21, 2020, 02:01:48 AM
Hardly any people showing up for the buffoon's rally.  ;D
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: interstitial on June 21, 2020, 04:14:47 PM

Hardly any people showing up for the buffoon's rally.  ;D

The buffoon's is sad because he wasn't re energized by the crowd. ;D  I hope he suffers a record defeat.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on June 21, 2020, 04:27:41 PM
No, it was crowded there indoors (the one you should avoid because of the deadly pandemic going around). Only the outdoor venue (the one you should definitely prefer because of the mentioned deadly pandemic) was empty. Ah, and for what i saw, no one was wearing a mask - goes without saying i guess.

Death cult! I bet you can get rich when you sell them the Kool-Aid for a hundred bucks. They want it so bad.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: kassy on June 21, 2020, 06:53:40 PM
Tik-Tok users and K-Pop fans were behind the smaller than expected numbers at US President Donald Trump's first campaign rally in months, social media users have claimed.

Mr Trump's campaign manager had blamed "radical" protesters and the media.

But political strategist Steve Schmidt said teenagers across the US ordered tickets without intending to turn up to ensure there would be empty seats.

The campaign had reported at least one million ticket requests for the event.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53129524
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on June 21, 2020, 06:56:48 PM
The troll got trolled! Beautiful. 🖤
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Phoenix on June 21, 2020, 07:10:51 PM
The Kentucky primary will be a fiasco. They have cut polling locations from 3700 to 200 and have one location to serve an area of Louisville which serves 616,000 residents. That location is home to half the black voters in the state of Kentucky and we have a competitive black candidate in the Democratic senate primary....Charles Booker.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/kentucky-cuts-polling-locations-angry-mob-long-lines-georgia-election-day-disaster-confusion-a9577501.html

This is so fu^%ed.

 >:( >:(
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: SteveMDFP on June 21, 2020, 07:15:46 PM
Tik-Tok users and K-Pop fans were behind the smaller than expected numbers at US President Donald Trump's first campaign rally in months, social media users have claimed.

Mr Trump's campaign manager had blamed "radical" protesters and the media.

But political strategist Steve Schmidt said teenagers across the US ordered tickets without intending to turn up to ensure there would be empty seats.

The campaign had reported at least one million ticket requests for the event.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53129524
Twitter:

James Buchanan
@POTUS_15
"And I would have more followers show up, if it weren't for you meddling kids"
#TrumpMeltdown #tiktokteens #TulsaFlop

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbB4zkfWAAADn5E?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on June 22, 2020, 01:47:13 AM
Yes it's true that Tik-Tok users and others were responsible for fooling that orange idiot into thinking he would have a big crowd. But hard core supporters would have still shown up if they really wanted to see him. The fact that so few did show up had more to do with SARSII and the deflation of his campaign I think. People just weren't ready to die for that buffoon. Only the biggest idiots showed up, and even they weren't impressed with his performance. The atmosphere wasn't what it used to be... He's done! Especially when people that showed up for his rally start dying...

But now he's really becoming dangerous... What will he do to turn the tide? War is always an option...
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Phoenix on July 18, 2020, 11:10:15 PM
Surging Democrats expand Senate targets to GOP states

https://apnews.com/269c5a18f098ec93e8a63fc460a78e0d

(excerpts from article for your efficient review...the article inexplicably does not mention the Senate races in Colorado and Maine which are GOP held seats. Maine is a coin flip and Colorado should be a lean toward the Democrat. The characterization of Arizona as a "difficult fight" is IMO, an understatement. It is a likely flip from R to D at this point.)

Democrats have at least a puncher’s chance..... in Alaska, Kansas, Kentucky and South Carolina.

They have an even shot at ousting GOP Sen. Steve Daines in Montana.... and long-shot hopes of retaining their most endangered senator, Doug Jones of Alabama.

Republican incumbents face legitimate challenges for two Senate seats in Georgia and difficult fights in Arizona and North Carolina.

Iowa GOP Sen. Joni Ernst faces a tough Democratic opponent in businesswoman Theresa Greenfield, while Republican Sen. John Cornyn is on alert against a Texas upset.


(Summary....the Senate is up for grabs. GOP has 53 seats at the moment and they likely regain the Alabama seat. That means the Dems need 4 pickups + a Biden win to demote McConnell. Dems favored to flip in AZ and CO. Tossups (6) in NC, GA (2), IA, ME, MT. If those split evenly, it's 51-49 Democrats. 53 would provide an important buffer as Democrats Manchin and Sinema are pretty unreliable).
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on July 24, 2020, 07:58:03 PM
Donald Trump is Drastically Underperforming His KEY Groups From 2016

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8nIkb_u0Xk
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on July 26, 2020, 11:27:44 AM
A Bipartisan Group Secretly Gathered to Game Out a Contested Trump-Biden Election. It Wasn’t Pretty
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/07/25/nation/bipartisan-group-secretly-gathered-game-out-contested-trump-biden-election-it-wasnt-pretty/?outputType=amp

WASHINGTON — On the second Friday in June, a group of political operatives, former government and military officials, and academics quietly convened online for what became a disturbing exercise in the fragility of American democracy.

The group, which included Democrats and Republicans, gathered to game out possible results of the November election, grappling with questions that seem less far-fetched by the day: What if President Trump refuses to concede a loss, as he publicly hinted recently he might do? How far could he go to preserve his power? And what if Democrats refuse to give in?

“All of our scenarios ended in both street-level violence and political impasse,” said Rosa Brooks, a Georgetown law professor and former Defense Department official who co-organized the group known as the Transition Integrity Project. She described what they found in bleak terms: “The law is essentially ... it’s almost helpless against a president who’s willing to ignore it.”

Using a role-playing game that is a fixture of military and national security planning, the group envisioned a dark 11 weeks between Election Day and Inauguration Day, one in which Trump and his Republican allies used every apparatus of government — the Postal Service, state lawmakers, the Justice Department, federal agents, and the military — to hold onto power, and Democrats took to the courts and the streets to try to stop it.

... “He doesn’t have to win the election,” said Nils Gilman, a historian who leads research at a think tank called the Berggruen Institute and was an organizer of the exercise. “He just has to create a plausible narrative that he didn’t lose.”

It is a fear that has been stoked by the president himself, who has repeatedly warned, without offering evidence, of widespread fraud involving mail-in ballots — which voters are likely to use at unprecedented levels because the pandemic has made in-person voting a potential health risk — to cast doubt on the results of November’s election.

“I think mail-in voting is going to rig the election, I really do,” he told Fox News’ Chris Wallace last Sunday. When asked if he would accept the election results, he said: “I’ll have to see.”

Former vice president Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, has taken to issuing foreboding warnings of his own. “This president is going to try to indirectly steal the election by arguing that mail-in ballots don’t work — they’re not real, they’re not fair,” he said at a fund-raiser on Thursday night. He has also mused publicly about Trump having to be escorted, forcibly if need be, from the White House.

That happened in one of the four scenarios the Transition Integrity Project gamed out, according to summaries of the exercises provided to The Boston Globe. But constitutional experts — and the game play — was less focused on the possibility of a cinematic, militarized intervention on Inauguration Day, which is a possibility many still consider remote, than the room the Constitution appears to leave for a disastrous and difficult transition if the incumbent does not accept a loss.

“When we started talking about this we got a lot of reactions — oh, you guys are so paranoid, don’t be ridiculous, this isn’t going to happen,” Brooks said.

Two things have happened since then: Trump has displayed increased willingness to challenge mail-in ballots, and his administration has deployed federal forces to quell protests in front of the White House and in Portland, Ore., and has threatened to do so in other cities.

“That has really shaken people,” Brooks said. “What was really a fringe idea has now become an anxiety that’s pretty widely shared.”

Brooks, Gilman, and others recruited a slate of players including a former swing state governor, a former White House chief of staff, and a former head of the Department of Homeland Security. They invited both Democrats and Republicans who they knew had concerns about Trump’s comments on the election; nearly 80 people in all were involved. The Republicans were described by participants as “never Trump” or “not Trump Republicans.”

They played using the so-called Chatham House Rules — in which participants can discuss what was said, but not who was there.

The game was elaborate. The participants took on the roles of the Trump campaign, the Biden campaign, relevant government officials, and the media —generally, Democrats played Democrats and Republicans played Republicans — and used a 10-sided die to determine whether a team succeeded in its attempted moves. The games are not meant to be predictive; rather, they are supposed to give people a sense of possible consequences in complex scenarios.

Each scenario involved a different election outcome: An unclear result on Election Day that looked increasingly like a Biden win as more ballots were counted; a clear Biden win in the popular vote and the Electoral College; an Electoral College win for Trump with Biden winning the popular vote by 5 percentage points; and a narrow Electoral College and popular vote victory for Biden.

In the scenarios, the team playing the Trump campaign often questioned the legitimacy of mail-in ballots, which often boosted Biden as they came in — shutting down post offices, pursuing litigation, and using right-wing media to amplify narratives about a stolen election.

To some participants, the game was a stark reminder of the power of incumbency.

“The more demonstrations there were, the more demands for recounts, the more legal challenges there were, the more funerals for democracy were held, the more Trump came across as the candidate of stability,” said Edward Luce, the US editor of the Financial Times, who played the role of a mainstream media reporter during one of the simulations. “Possession is nine-tenths of the law.”

In multiple scenarios, officials on both sides homed in on narrowly decided swing states with divided governments, such Wisconsin, Michigan, and Florida, hoping to persuade officials there to essentially send two different results to Congress. If a state’s election is disputed, a legislature controlled by one party and governor of another each could send competing slates of electors backing their party’s candidate.

Both sides turned out massive street protests that Trump sought to control — in one scenario he invoked the Insurrection Act, which allows the president to use military forces to quell unrest. The scenario that began with a narrow Biden win ended with Trump refusing to leave the White House, burning government documents, and having to be escorted out by the Secret Service. (The team playing Biden in that scenario, meanwhile, sought to patch things up with Republicans by appointing moderate Republican governors, including Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, to Cabinet positions.)

The scenario that produced the most contentious dynamics, however, was the one in which Trump won the Electoral College — and thus, the election — but Biden won the popular vote by 5 percentage points. Biden’s team retracted his Election Night concession, fueled by Democrats angry at losing yet another election despite capturing the popular vote, as happened in 2000 and 2016. In the mock election, Trump sought to divide Democrats — at one point giving an interview to The Intercept, a left-leaning news outlet, saying Senator Bernie Sanders would have won if Democrats had nominated him. Meanwhile, Biden’s team sought to encourage large Western states to secede unless pro-Democracy reforms were made.

That scenario seemed highly far-fetched, but it envisioned a situation in which both sides may have incentives to contest the election.

“There is a narrative among activists in both parties that the loss must be illegitimate,” he said.

According to the Constitution, the presidency ends at noon on Jan. 20, at which point the newly inaugurated president becomes the commander in chief.

The games, ultimately, were designed to explore how difficult it could be to get there.

“The Constitution really has been a workable document in many respects because we have had people who more or less adhered to a code of conduct,” said retired Army Colonel Larry Wilkerson, a Republican and former chief of staff to Colin Powell who participated in games as an observer. “That seems to no longer to be the case. That changes everything.”
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Pmt111500 on July 26, 2020, 03:06:08 PM
Looks like some gamblers still believe there will be elections in the US this year. I think they should put up options of no elections due Covid emergency, due civil insurgency, whatever. They could give quite good odds on that and accept a presidential bid, so absolutely no rigging of bets could happen.
https://www.unibet.eu/betting/sports/filter/politics
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on July 26, 2020, 03:55:44 PM
Pmt, the pandemic is giving the filthy fascist a lot of possibilities to curb voter turnout and opens ways to manipulate. This is why i think there will be an election.

Just not a democratic one.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on July 26, 2020, 07:56:59 PM
No election?  Keep Trump indefinitely?  No, there will be an election come November.  Nothing in the past; wars, unrest, depression, or pandemics have stopped them in the past.  The constitution stipulates than an election must be held.  The Elections have become increasingly fairer over the centuries, so I doubt this one will not be.  Mail-in voting will be no less fraudulent than current absentee balloting, even though there are those who believe this does not exist.  In-person turnout will likely drop dramatically, so results may not be known until well after election night.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on July 26, 2020, 08:15:35 PM
The Elections have become increasingly fairer over the centuries

Gerrymandering, electoral college, voter suppression, closing voting places in black communities, elections on weekdays, voting machines instead of pencil and paper, etc, etc, etc.

The US is not democratic, never has been!
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on July 26, 2020, 08:48:22 PM

The US is not democratic, never has been!

Correct.  It is a Republic, whereby the populous elect representatives, who are supposed to repress them.  Instead they represent themselves.

Still.  It is better today that in previous times.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on July 26, 2020, 08:52:02 PM
Instead they represent themselves.

Right, Walrus, forgot the most important point in my list: Corruption!

Quote
Still.  It is better today that in previous times.

Yeah, even women and black people are now allowed to vote. WOW!

Sorry for the snark, but i can't see progress, no matter how hard i look for it.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on July 26, 2020, 09:02:26 PM
Instead they represent themselves.

Right, Walrus, forgot the most important point in my list: Corruption!

Quote
Still.  It is better today that in previous times.

Yeah, even women and black people are now allowed to vote. WOW!

Sorry for the snark, but i can't see progress, no matter how hard i look for it.

Well, at least you acknowledge that there is corruption.  There are many who disavow any fraud in the election system at all.  However, previous fraud was much worse.  Jim Crow laws prevented many
Blacks from voting for decades.  Gerrymandering and got buying has always existed.  What had disappeared is the political machines that ran many of the large cities.  Instances of pre-marked ballots, voter intimidation, and the infamous “cemetery” vote were widespread.  Without fraud, LBJ would have never gotten out if Texas.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on July 26, 2020, 09:18:28 PM
Well, at least you acknowledge that there is corruption

Well, of course, i do! :)

This is why i was such a passionate Bernie supporter. I was of the opinion that a non-corrupt guy would be one of the first steps towards progress. The electorate opted for corruption BAU.

Sad! No progress possible.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 26, 2020, 09:40:09 PM

The US is not democratic, never has been!

Correct.  It is a Republic, whereby the populous elect representatives, who are supposed to repress them.  Instead they represent themselves.

Still.  It is better today that in previous times.
Freudian slip, that, Walrus? "repress" them?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on July 26, 2020, 09:45:05 PM
lol
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on July 26, 2020, 11:34:43 PM
Trump Is Putting On a Show in Portland
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/07/trump-putting-show-portland/167203/

(https://static.politico.com/dims4/default/4587f01/2147483647/resize/600x%3E/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2Fba%2F01%2F230248434b01a77ebcf8a07d5f4e%2F3-m.Wuerker-Politico.jpg)

The president is deploying the kind of performative authoritarianism that Vladimir Putin pioneered.

The very idea seems, on the face of it, sheer madness. In Portland, Oregon, federal security officers dressed for combat—wearing jungle-camouflage uniforms with unclear markings, carrying heavy weapons, using batons and tear gas—are patrolling the streets, making random arrests, throwing people into unmarked vans.

Unsurprisingly, these troops are making rudimentary mistakes. Instead of working with local leaders, they have antagonized them. Instead of coaxing people to go home, their behavior has caused more people to come out onto the streets. Instead of calming the situation, they are infuriating people. They have escalated the violence. They have made the situation worse.

... Welcome to the world of performative authoritarianism, a form of politics that reached new heights of sophistication in Russia over the past decade and has now arrived in the United States. Unlike 20th-century authoritarianism, this 21st-century, postmodern influence campaign does not require the creation of a total police state. Nor does it require complete control of information, or mass arrests. It can be carried out, instead, with a few media outlets and a few carefully targeted arrests.

... The chaos in Portland is not an accident. The chaos is the point.

The chaos is also a tactic, and now it will be put to use. Now that it has been deliberately escalated, the violence will provide pictures, footage, video clips, and other material for Trump’s media supporters, and eventually for his campaign advertisements. On Fox News, Sean Hannity has already denounced Portland as a “war zone.” Tucker Carlson has spoken of protesters as “mobs” who keep liberal Democrats in power. The next stage will implicate Joe Biden in this same story: The president’s aides have told journalists that Biden, if he wins, will “allow left-wing fascists to destroy America.” Protesters, mobs, chaos, fascists, the left, the “Dems”, Biden—they’re all one narrative. The Trump administration will show people pictures of its uniformed troops pushing back against them, restoring order with a strong hand. And it will use the kind of language that appeals to that part of the population that prizes safety over all else.

Students of modern dictatorship will find these tactics wearily familiar. Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom Trump admires, has deployed performative authoritarianism, alongside other tools, in order to keep himself in power for many years now. ... Russian state television showed scenes of violence over and over again—scenes that Putin himself had helped create, first by encouraging the former Ukrainian president to shoot at demonstrators, and then by invading the country. He sent troops in unmarked uniforms—the infamous “little green men”—into Crimea and eventually eastern Ukraine to “dominate” the situation, to use Trump’s own word for his tactics in Portland. Or at least that was the way it was meant to look on TV.

... Just this week, Trump’s official Facebook page published an advertisement purporting to show yet another scene of American urban violence. The slogan reads public safety vs chaos & violence, and the ad contrasts a photograph of a somber, concerned Trump with another showing demonstrators pummeling a police officer. But the latter image was not taken in Portland. Sourced from the internet, it was taken in … Ukraine. In 2014. In the ad, which is attributed to Evangelicals for Trump, the insignia on the officer’s shoulder includes a Ukrainian Orthodox cross.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53500610

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/375/cpsprodpb/0485/production/_113575110_trump.jpg)
The Big Lie

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9d/A_police_officer_attacked_by_protesters_during_clashes_in_Ukraine%2C_Kyiv._Events_of_February_18%2C_2014-1.jpg/1280px-A_police_officer_attacked_by_protesters_during_clashes_in_Ukraine%2C_Kyiv._Events_of_February_18%2C_2014-1.jpg)
Image of protesters in Kyiv, Ukraine taken on Feb.18, 2014

--------------------------------

Trump Is Determined to Split the Country in Two
https://www.defenseone.com/politics/2020/07/trump-determined-split-country-two/167209/
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on July 26, 2020, 11:59:10 PM
From Office of Strategic Services: Hitler's Psychological Profile: pg. 46
https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP78-02646R000600240001-5.pdf

His Primary Rules Were:

Quote
- Never allow the public to cool off;

- Never admit a fault or wrong;

- Never concede that there may be some good in your enemy;

- Never leave room for alternatives;

- Never accept blame;

- Concentrate on one enemy at a time and blame him for everything that goes wrong;

- People will believe a big lie sooner than a little one; and

- If you repeat it frequently enough people will sooner or later believe it.

Sound familiar?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 27, 2020, 03:15:45 PM
VM, do you think those last two rules (about lying) are correct?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on July 27, 2020, 05:31:44 PM
VM, do you think those last two rules (about lying) are correct?
Disambiguation?

1. ...are they correct? (Did I copy the correct info from the OSS report?) Yes

2. ... are they correct? (Do people/governments lie?) Yes ... Pop-quiz ... Which is true? Iraq had WMD or We invaded Iraq for oil?

3. ... are they correct?  (Does it work?) Yes. See above.

4. ... are they correct?  (Do I think it is the right path to follow?) No! It is the path to perdition.

-------------------------------------

A big lie (German: große Lüge) is a propaganda technique. The expression was coined by Adolf Hitler, when he dictated his 1925 book Mein Kampf, about the use of a lie so "colossal" that no one would believe that someone "could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously".

Quote
... All this was inspired by the principle—which is quite true within itself—that in the big lie there is always a certain force of credibility; because the broad masses of a nation are always more easily corrupted in the deeper strata of their emotional nature than consciously or voluntarily; and thus in the primitive simplicity of their minds they more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves often tell small lies in little matters but would be ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods.

  It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. Even though the facts which prove this to be so may be brought clearly to their minds, they will still doubt and waver and will continue to think that there may be some other explanation. For the grossly impudent lie always leaves traces behind it, even after it has been nailed down, a fact which is known to all expert liars in this world and to all who conspire together in the art of lying.

— Adolf Hitler, Mein Kampf, vol. I, ch. X
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Florifulgurator on July 27, 2020, 08:02:39 PM

The US is not democratic, never has been!

Correct.  It is a Republic, whereby the populous elect representatives, who are supposed to repress them.  Instead they represent themselves.

Still.  It is better today that in previous times.
Freudian slip, that, Walrus? "repress" them?
Methinks not. It is something mostly unconscious: Pretty please repress us, so we can complain! Pain makes us feel alive! (More tax cuts for the rich! Universal heathcare is for welfare queens! Etc. etc.) Thus many vote for sadopopulists.

https://youtu.be/oOjJtEkKMX4

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Pmt111500 on July 27, 2020, 08:57:00 PM
This onion classic should be played everytime someone claims US is a democracy.

https://youtu.be/MmPtfy9P714
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on July 28, 2020, 12:54:15 AM
When half of the country is publicly demonized for supporting the President, you cannot rely on polling. I think that those who believe Biden has a chance of winning are in for a rude awakening in November and the same delusions that led to the 2016 loss have led to the Biden candidacy and its inevitable failure.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Pmt111500 on July 28, 2020, 07:42:34 AM
When half of the country is publicly demonized for supporting the President, you cannot rely on polling. I think that those who believe Biden has a chance of winning are in for a rude awakening in November and the same delusions that led to the 2016 loss have led to the Biden candidacy and its inevitable failure.

Yes, I try to continuously emphazise the depth of the republican lies, but most democrats think the election system works ok.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on July 29, 2020, 01:29:57 PM
When half of the country is publicly demonized for supporting the President, you cannot rely on polling. I think that those who believe Biden has a chance of winning are in for a rude awakening in November and the same delusions that led to the 2016 loss have led to the Biden candidacy and its inevitable failure.

I think Biden has two things going for him that Clinton did not.  One, people have been embarrassed with the way Trump treats other people, and would prefer someone who acts “presidential.”  Secondly, he is likable.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 29, 2020, 01:40:31 PM
Really, does it make much difference which one wins? If you chart the economy, crime, abortions, GHG emissions, military deaths, or any other countable issue over the last 75 years, would you be able to tell whether the POTUS was Republican or Democrat at any particular time? Are we just choosing between Twiddledum and Twiddledee?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on July 29, 2020, 01:58:15 PM
There are a lot of things the Dems would do better than the Reps.

They are not fascistic. They don't deploy the GeStaPo in US cities. No Dem would tell people that there is alien DNA in vaccines. They don't hype Q-anon conspiracies in the mainstream media.

These are only things happened today. If you look at what happened this week, month, year, you'll find a million reasons where they would actually make a difference.

Yes, Dems are also conservative fucks i hate to the core. But they are at least not batshit crazy.

How is it this has to be pointed out to anyone? How bizarre do things have to get before people notice?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on July 29, 2020, 03:02:23 PM
Wal, Biden also seems to connect better with the working class than HRC did.

But he really does need to have a stronger message than 'I'm not that other guy'

And just to add two more to the nearly endless list of batshit crazy and dangerous things Repugs regularly do that Dems never have (to my knowledge):

hype an anti-malarial drug to cure a disease in the midst of an epidemic of that disease, tho it has no known curative properties for it;

deny the overwhelming science of AGW....
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 29, 2020, 03:39:48 PM
b, if there were a third party candidate who matched your political philosophy would you vote for him? This would be voting for the “best” candidate and sending a message to the Dems. It would also make a Trump re-election more likely.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on July 29, 2020, 03:51:58 PM
In my country, there are 2 parties that have a big enough overlap with my political views (Die Linke & Die Partei).

In the US though, with its undemocratic two-party system, it would be political suicide for me to vote for my ideology. Because it would be indirectly a vote for Trump, and therefore a vote for fascism. And i am very much anti-fascism.

So yes, i would vote Biden in 2020 even if there was a party that represented my views.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 29, 2020, 04:06:15 PM
Thank you, b. In 2012 there was a third party candidate who ran on Right to Life that I was tempted to vote for, but I voted for Romney.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on July 29, 2020, 04:17:54 PM
Welcome, Tom. :)

BTW, your vote for trump last time didn't do for you what you wanted. Maybe consider looking at the whole picture this time around. There are other issues than the one that is so dear to your heart with way bigger implications for literally every living being on the planet.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on July 29, 2020, 04:27:41 PM
Wal, Biden also seems to connect better with the working class than HRC did.

But he really does need to have a stronger message than 'I'm not that other guy'


Agreed.  So far, that seems to be his entire message.  However, it was the working class that helped put Trump in the white house, and that might be enough.  He only won by a few votes in some key states.  Still the comparison with 2016 are uncanny.  People are saying it is his to lose.  Sound familiar?

Although, I think the virus lockdown is helping him; the less he [Biden] talks, the better.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 29, 2020, 05:26:42 PM
How do things work in your country, b? If there are ten parties that each get ten percent of the vote, who wins?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 29, 2020, 05:29:24 PM
Welcome, Tom. :)

BTW, your vote for trump last time didn't do for you what you wanted. Maybe consider looking at the whole picture this time around. There are other issues than the one that is so dear to your heart with way bigger implications for literally every living being on the planet.
That is why I would vote for a third party candidate if there were a prolife one running now. But I guess I will be stuck with the GOP.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on July 29, 2020, 05:42:49 PM
How do things work in your country, b? If there are ten parties that each get ten percent of the vote, who wins?

They would have to negotiate a coalition. In your example, you would have a 6 parties coalition. If they fail to build a coalition, another round of voting would take place.

I will be stuck with the GOP.

You are not. You are conned into believing that. By the most stupid and despicable con-man there is mind you. You are insulting your intelligence, Tom.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 29, 2020, 05:59:05 PM
b, I know Biden will not be prolife. If a million Americans a year were dying of heatstroke AGW would be the deciding issue. If a million Americans a year were dying of COVID that would be the deciding issue. But a million Americans a year are dying of abortion. Tell me what candidate I should vote for then.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on July 29, 2020, 06:30:56 PM
PM, Tom!
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on July 29, 2020, 07:18:44 PM
It is sad to see how much Tom and his ilk are being utterly manipulated by one emotional issue, and don't seem to be able to realize it.

Their failure is sealing the fate of America (though the demise of its never-robust democracy has been a long time coming).
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on July 29, 2020, 08:56:28 PM
It is sad to see how much Tom and his ilk are being utterly manipulated by one emotional issue, and don't seem to be able to realize it.

There appears to be an equal number being manipulated by the same emotional issue on the other side of the argument.  Do you feel that they are unable to realize it also.  I applaud Tom for sticky to his ideals.  That is not often seen in this day and age.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Pmt111500 on July 30, 2020, 07:00:00 AM
Ah, it's the 'raped women must carry to the term', argument that Tom supports. But with good luck a republican father may shoot the prospective father of the daughter's child.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: oren on July 30, 2020, 07:46:48 AM
Folks, as much as we all have something to say on this hot-button issue (trust me I do too and it buggers me to no end), please respect Neven's wishes and common sense and avoid debating this on the ASIF.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Pmt111500 on July 30, 2020, 10:19:06 AM
Okay, the incel-politics of republicans is a delicate issue here, like their psyche.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on July 30, 2020, 10:47:49 AM
Pmt, i agree. It's a problem!

Don't make any unfounded assumptions about members though. Don't fall into the scapegoating trap yourself. It's what we fight, not what we do.

Play the ball, not the man.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on July 30, 2020, 04:24:37 PM
This is an issue that has no compromising solution.  Hence, I will agree with Neven and heed his request.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on July 30, 2020, 06:27:29 PM
Trump just killed mister 999 Herman Cain. Going to a superspreader rally without a mask was probably not a good idea...

And in the meantime, Trump promotes someone else's Pizza at the same time the Herman Cain news came in...  :-\
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Pmt111500 on July 30, 2020, 06:33:45 PM
Looks like some gamblers still believe there will be elections in the US this year. I think they should put up options of no elections due Covid emergency, due civil insurgency, whatever. They could give quite good odds on that and accept a presidential bid, so absolutely no rigging of bets could happen.
https://www.unibet.eu/betting/sports/filter/politics

Looks like I was only 4 days early, before this was casually mentioned by Drumpf. Maybe now they could set up a betting pool for this option?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on July 30, 2020, 06:43:12 PM
Trump just killed mister 999 Herman Cain. Going to a superspreader rally without a mask was probably not a good idea...

And in the meantime, Trump promotes someone else's Pizza at the same time the Herman Cain news came in...  :-\

Travelling around the country without a mask was probably not a good idea.  Blaming someone else for his death, is even worse.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Paddy on July 30, 2020, 06:43:32 PM
b, I know Biden will not be prolife. If a million Americans a year were dying of heatstroke AGW would be the deciding issue. If a million Americans a year were dying of COVID that would be the deciding issue. But a million Americans a year are dying of abortion. Tell me what candidate I should vote for then.

Well, depending on state, there may be the option of voting Kanye. 

What a choice between him and Trump, if this is your number one issue... and incidentally, if it is your number one issue, you may want to be aware that some of his policies, allegedly designed to prevent abortions, have the paradoxical effect of increasing abortion numbers by reducing access to contraception.  https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/internationaldevelopment/2019/01/16/trumps-reinstatement-and-expansion-of-the-global-gag-rule-has-harmful-effects-for-women-men-and-children/
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on July 30, 2020, 06:57:53 PM
have the paradoxical effect of increasing abortion numbers by reducing access to contraception

My point exactly. :)

Anyway, further talking about abortion may be held in private, Paddy. Thanks for your understanding.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on July 30, 2020, 11:31:41 PM
The Justice Department’s militarized police force is expanding to Cleveland, Detroit, and Milwaukee — which just happen to be “Cities in the swing states of Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin,” David Gura of NBC News pointed out Wednesday, after DOJ announced the pivot
https://twitter.com/davidgura/status/1288496670607646720

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/operation-legend-expanded-cleveland-detroit-and-milwaukee
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 31, 2020, 12:44:24 AM
https://www.gocomics.com/overthehedge/2020/07/29

RJ: Who's gonna win the election
Tree: At the least, a semi-intelligent, functioning human
RJ: So not...
Tree: Bingo.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on July 31, 2020, 12:54:34 AM
I particularly like the second halves of CJ Hopkins' columns:

Quote
No, credit where credit is due to GloboCap. At this point, not only the United States, but countries throughout the global capitalist empire, are in such a state of mass hysteria, and so hopelessly politically polarized, that hardly anyone can see the textbook color revolution that is being executed, openly, right in front of our faces.

Or … OK, actually, most Trump supporters see it, but most of them, like Trump himself, have mistaken Antifa, Black Lives Matter, and the Democratic Party and their voters for the enemy, when they are merely pawns in GloboCap’s game. Most liberals and leftists cannot see it at all … literally, as in they cannot perceive it. Like Dolores in the HBO Westworld series, “it doesn’t look like anything” to them. They actually believe they are fighting fascism, that Donald Trump, a narcissistic, word-salad-spewing, former game show host, is literally the Return of Adolf Hitler, and that somehow (presumably with the help of Putin) he has staged the current civil unrest, like the Nazis staged the Reichstag fire! (The New York Times will never tire of that one, nor will their liberal and leftist readers, who have been doing battle with an endless series of imaginary Hitlers since … well, since Hitler.)

I’ve been repeating it my columns for the last four years, and I’m going to repeat it once again. What we are experiencing is not the “return of fascism.” It is the global capitalist empire restoring order, putting down the populist insurgency that took them by surprise in 2016. The White Black Nationalist Color Revolution, the fake apocalyptic plague, all the insanity of 2020 … it has been in the pipeline all along. It has been since the moment Trump won the election. No, it is not about Trump, the man. It has never been about Trump, the man, no more than the Obama presidency was ever about Obama, the man. GloboCap needs to crush Donald Trump (and moreover, to make an example of him) not because he is a threat to the empire (he isn’t), but because he became a symbol of populist resistance to global capitalism and its increasingly aggressive “woke” ideology. It is this populist resistance to its ideology that GloboCap is determined to crush, no matter how much social chaos and destruction it unleashes in the process.

In one of my essays from last October, Trumpenstein Must Be Destroyed, I made this prediction about the year ahead:

“2020 is for all the marbles. The global capitalist ruling classes either crush this ongoing populist insurgency or God knows where we go from here. Try to see it through their eyes for a moment. Picture four more years of Trump … second-term Trump … Trump unleashed. Do you really believe they’re going to let that happen, that they are going to permit this populist insurgency to continue for another four years? They are not. What they are going to do is use all their power to destroy the monster, not Trump the man, but Trump the symbol. They are going to drown us in impeachment minutiae, drip, drip, drip, for the next twelve months. The liberal corporate media are going to go full-Goebbels. They are going to whip up so much mass hysteria that people won’t be able to think. They are going to pit us one against the other, and force us onto one or the other side of a simulated conflict (Democracy versus the Putin-Nazis) to keep us from perceiving the actual conflict (Global Capitalism versus Populism). They are going to bring us to the brink of civil war …”

OK, I didn’t see the fake plague coming, but, otherwise, how’s my prediction holding up?

First half can be read here: The White Black Nationalist Color Revolution (https://consentfactory.org/2020/07/29/the-white-black-nationalist-color-revolution/)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on July 31, 2020, 07:10:32 AM
Colour revolution coming home in monochrome.

I like consentfactory, dont always agree, but hopkins writes better than many.

sidd
 
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on July 31, 2020, 08:16:26 AM
If you think lefties calling the POTUS a fascist is an exaggeration, you are either not familiar with what the word means, or you are not familiar with the history.

It's not lefties calling him that. It's everyone rooted in reality.

Even ultra-conservative like this one can see it:

Federalist Society co-founder calls Trump's tweet about delaying election "fascistic"

Link >> https://www.axios.com/federalist-society-trump-tweet-election-fascistic-e2aefd4a-1688-44f2-a26a-fea63374beaa.html
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on July 31, 2020, 09:12:52 AM
Re: Trump, fascist

Oh, absolutely. Every colour revolution attempts to overthrow a fascist.

sidd
 
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on July 31, 2020, 09:51:19 AM
If you think lefties calling the POTUS a fascist is an exaggeration, you are either not familiar with what the word means, or you are not familiar with the history.

It's not lefties calling him that. It's everyone rooted in reality.

Read it again:

Quote
I’ve been repeating it my columns for the last four years, and I’m going to repeat it once again. What we are experiencing is not the “return of fascism.” It is the global capitalist empire restoring order, putting down the populist insurgency that took them by surprise in 2016. The White Black Nationalist Color Revolution, the fake apocalyptic plague, all the insanity of 2020 … it has been in the pipeline all along. It has been since the moment Trump won the election. No, it is not about Trump, the man. It has never been about Trump, the man, no more than the Obama presidency was ever about Obama, the man. GloboCap needs to crush Donald Trump (and moreover, to make an example of him) not because he is a threat to the empire (he isn’t), but because he became a symbol of populist resistance to global capitalism and its increasingly aggressive “woke” ideology. It is this populist resistance to its ideology that GloboCap is determined to crush, no matter how much social chaos and destruction it unleashes in the process.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on July 31, 2020, 10:28:19 AM
Yes, Neven, i understands your point. You think it's all fake. No one's fears are rational. People should line up to die for the economy. The economic downturn is only a function of the MSM hyping us all up. People don't die from Covid, but because they are irresponsible fucks who happen to eat the wrong things. The old and sick deserve to die, they would have died anyway. Yady yady yada...
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: oren on July 31, 2020, 10:55:50 AM
I can't quite figure out why one must insist the pandemic is fake in order to prove that bad political things are being done, some on the pandemic's name, some while denying the pandemic. If not for the pandemic, something else would have come up. Why deny the science of the pandemic to make a political point?
Never mind, guess it's the wrong thread.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: greylib on July 31, 2020, 12:22:40 PM
I can't quite figure out why one must insist the pandemic is fake in order to prove that bad political things are being done, some on the pandemic's name, some while denying the pandemic. If not for the pandemic, something else would have come up. Why deny the science of the pandemic to make a political point?
Never mind, guess it's the wrong thread.
As far as I can see, Neven's hypothesis is not that the pandemic is fake, but that powerful figures in the shadows are whipping up a lot of unnecessary hysteria over it, to regain control over a populace that are starting to wake up to the lies. That could well be true - there's some evidence in favour of it - but there are other explanations.

The simplest is that Bad News Sells - the media are eager to put the worst face on it, to get the extra sales and clicks. And politicians go along with it because they have to be seen to be concerned about each and every death. If they said "it seems to be settling down to less than one death in a thousand, and mostly the old and sick - the useless ones" they'd be lynched.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on July 31, 2020, 01:39:49 PM
I can't quite figure out why one must insist the pandemic is fake in order to prove that bad political things are being done, some on the pandemic's name, some while denying the pandemic. If not for the pandemic, something else would have come up. Why deny the science of the pandemic to make a political point?
Never mind, guess it's the wrong thread.
As far as I can see, Neven's hypothesis is not that the pandemic is fake, but that powerful figures in the shadows are whipping up a lot of unnecessary hysteria over it, to regain control over a populace that are starting to wake up to the lies. That could well be true - there's some evidence in favour of it - but there are other explanations.

The simplest is that Bad News Sells - the media are eager to put the worst face on it, to get the extra sales and clicks. And politicians go along with it because they have to be seen to be concerned about each and every death. If they said "it seems to be settling down to less than one death in a thousand, and mostly the old and sick - the useless ones" they'd be lynched.

Both explanations are plausible, even likely.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on July 31, 2020, 06:53:28 PM
Important Twitter thread. Please read!

Quote
Today Donald Trump and Mike Pompeo unveiled the real nightmare scenario for the 2020 election—and the question of what Trump has legal authority to do has nothing to do with it. I hope you'll read on and retweet—as what I'm describing here is what America is heading for.

Autocracies aren't born in rule of law. They're not even primarily born in violence. Rather they arise *despite* rule of law—often on the strength of a benighted populism, in fact just the sort of populist movement Trump is building now over false fears of a "rigged" election.

The question isn't whether Trump has legal authority to move Election Day and thereby extend his presidency—he doesn't—but a different question: what happens if he just declares that he *does* have this power? And what if he can do so with a false *veneer* of legal legitimacy?

By October 31, Trump's decision not to combat COVID-19 (indeed to worsen the pandemic with every one of his words, actions, and decisions not to act), coupled with an incipient flu season, is likely to send America's COVID-19 data—infections, deaths—into its horrifying nadir.

Meanwhile, Trump has put a crony who's likely a witness in an ongoing federal criminal probe—a man who's a peer of perjurers (and worse) Michael Cohen, Elliott Broidy and Gordon Sondland—in charge of the United States Postal Service. Already, this crony is destroying the USPS.

If, on October 30, COVID-19 is cresting—as it likely will be—and the USPS is less able to deliver mail properly than at any point in recent history, as seems likely (and on Trump's end intentional), Trump's self-manufactured "case" for a national emergency will be at its apex.

Today, Mike Pompeo told us Trump lackey Barr—who has never refused the president anything, who appears to be a Trump co-conspirator in the Ukraine scandal, and who has already shown a penchant for violating the law—gets to decide if Trump can announce a change in Election Day.

Note that each time I use the anodyne euphemism "change in Election Day," what I'm describing is in fact apocalyptic—an artificial extension of the Trump presidency corresponding with the end of American democracy and the beginning of Trump's reign as America's first autocrat.

Barr has already instructed OLC (the Office of Legal Counsel) to produce opinions that violate all existing law (for that matter, we saw that during the prior GOP administration, Bush's, as to torture). Barr can get the OLC to crush a CIA whistleblower—or change Election Day.

I ask anyone reading this to simply play out the following hypothetical—the one I offer in the next tweet—which is "hypothetical" only insomuch as it takes everything we know about Trump, Pompeo, Barr, COVID-19, and the USPS *right now* and projects it 90 days into the future:

On October 30, Trump announces, with an OLC opinion "granting" him this power in hand, that he is moving the 2020 presidential election 120 days, after which time he will review the nation's ability to safely and securely conduct an election. He announces it via tweet and TV.

Understand that this would be illegal—and wouldn't change election day. But that wouldn't be the point. The point would be to *convince Trump voters not to vote*.

You may have to read the preceding sentence multiple times—it's counterintuitive unless you're a metamodernist.

This thread isn't on metamodernism. All you need to know is that on the day in June 2015 Trump announced his candidacy, I published a HuffPost essay declaring that what made Trump dangerous was his ability to manipulate reality (in a way theorists connect to "metamodernism").

The way to win an unwinnable election, using the sort of powerful reframing of events a certain way of thinking Trump instinctively (not intelligently or responsibly) employs, is not to turn out your voters... but *declare the election invalid once your voters don't show up*.

The purpose of the pre-election Trump announcement I am hypothesizing here would not be to help Trump *win* the 2020 election, but to convince so many Trump voters *not to vote* that the results of the election favor Biden by *so much* the election looks wholly illegitimate.

Imagine a scenario in which, with 3 branches of government—executive, judicial, legislative—you have the executive branch declaring the election was moved, the judicial branch (as yet) silent, and the legislative branch in chaos because no one in the GOP knows what to say/do.

By convincing his voters to stay home—because he's "moved the election"—Trump will have caused every GOP member of Congress to *lose their reelection*, *forcing* them to back his play and say that the election was delayed and therefore Biden didn't actually win on November 3.

The result: an executive branch that says the election was invalid; half the legislative branch (the GOP half) saying the election was invalid; election results that *look* invalid (as Biden has won by 50+ points); and a judicial branch that hasn't—and can't—say anything yet.

In that circumstance, what does "rule of law" even mean? You have a separation of powers issue—a conflict between branches of government—that the Supreme Court *must* hear, and because it's the most complex case ever heard by SCOTUS in US history, it's impossible to expedite.

The mere fact that Trump would have enacted this constitutional crisis just 96 hours pre-election means SCOTUS *can't* speak on it pre-election, and the complexity of the case would throw into chaos *all* state election deadlines. Which is basically the point of Trump's plot.

All Trump needs in this scenario is a) SCOTUS to move at its usual glacial pace, and b) GOP-run states (states with GOP secretaries of state running their elections) to *refuse to certify election results* or *choose electors* until the Supreme Court has acted on the issue.

I'm not even sure *Trump* would be the plaintiff in this case—as he and his GOP allies in Congress (and GOP secretaries of state) would so adamantly declare the election results invalid they might wait to make the *Democrats* sue in federal court, making them look desperate.

And how magnanimous Trump will be! He and his GOP allies will offer to *negotiate* with Democrats in lieu of them filing a federal suit. Trump will say, "We have to wait until this invisible plague is under control. That's *all* anyone is asking here." It'll sound persuasive!

Know what'll make it *more* persuasive? Election results so insane-looking—Biden 82%, Trump 15%—they'll make Egypt's el-Sisi blush. Biden will be half-inclined to *agree* with Trump on a do-over—knowing his term as an "illegitimate monarch" may be marked by historic violence.

Right now I need everyone in media; everyone on "legal Twitter"; everyone who's a professional political analyst to comment on this thread—or on your own feeds, it doesn't matter—explaining why this Trump plan wouldn't work. Why it isn't *exactly* what he's setting us up for.

Understand that I didn't develop this thread out of some fever dream. All I did was take statements and actions by Trump, Barr, and Pompeo; the current status of COVID-19 and the USPS (and who controls each); and the way of thinking Trump has exhibited *since June 2015*.

PS/ I understand—and empathize with, as a lawyer—those who reply, "Nah, he ceases to be POTUS on January 20th at noon."

Again, that's the view that *law* determines if a coup is successful, not the brute force of populism and logistics—the logic undergirding Trump's actions now.

In the scenario I've described, yes, the law would suggest Biden—having won the election 82% to 15%; with less than 270 electoral votes; and with all GOP politicians and all GOP secretaries of state and most GOP voters saying he won a fake election—is the president. So what?

What would in mean—in that scenario—for someone to be "president"? And that's the question the five ultra-conservative justices of the Supreme Court would have to decide, probably on a timeline so glacial it couldn't be concluded effectively until early January 2021 at best.

More importantly, that's the question *Democrats* would have to decide—and would probably be deciding in the midst of historic Republican protests and threats of violence all across the country. Would *Democrats* consider it their best move to accept that election "victory"?

We learned in January '20 that impeachments are about politics, not law—though they're supposed to adhere to rule of law. In January '21 we may learn *elections* are *also* about politics, not law. What happens if Dems must allow a do-over to preserve the peace of our Union?

This scenario works for Trump even if early voting depresses Biden's win to (say) 62% to 36%. It may even work without Barr aboard. It may work if the "don't vote" effort is homegrown, inspired and supported by Trump but not demanded by him. The premise itself is the thing.

The solution here is for America to publicly discuss this scenario *now*—and invalidate it. GOP politicians must agree to abide by the election results even if Trump convinces his voters not to show up. Barr must state clearly that Trump cannot legally "move" election day.

Constitutional law experts must play out how SCOTUS would act. Election law experts must do scenario-planning on how misconduct by GOP secretaries of state could be thwarted. Dems must educate Republicans on who's POTUS on January 20 if SCOTUS is still working on a ruling.

Democrats must announce now that there'll be no "do-over" election—and anyone who opts not to vote is making a decision they must *live by*. Emergency assistance must be provided to USPS. Social media should deem Trump tweets on moving election day "election interference."

It's amazing to see responses saying "the military wouldn't allow it" or "Pelosi would be POTUS." Again, this sort of coup happens through *politics, rhetoric, and the reframing of reality with GOP pol/voter support*—it has nothing to do with law, violence or the military.

Link >> https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1288882406536228866
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on July 31, 2020, 07:35:29 PM
While Trump is not beyond such actions, I think he would be more subtle.  He has already declared a national emergency dur to Covid.  He has control over the military, borders, and the post office.  One of all of these (and others) could be used to covertly control the outcome of the election.  Just look how several governors have responded to the primary elections.  Anything is possible.  I think an illegitimate election would be the last resort, and a very precarious ploy.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: interstitial on July 31, 2020, 10:33:33 PM
Orange has often stated his admiration of autocrats. He has already stated on national television that he may not accept  election results. We will just have to see. I am scared and angry. He has already declared the law does not apply to him.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: interstitial on July 31, 2020, 10:38:46 PM
Orange is many things but one of them is not subtle IMO.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 01, 2020, 12:35:11 AM
B_,
SCOTUS regularly acts on emergency appeals within hours. 

The federal court system could easily respond to a constitutional crisis within 3 days.  Something like:
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Pmt111500 on August 01, 2020, 03:25:25 AM
Orange has often stated his admiration of autocrats. He has already stated on national television that he may not accept  election results. We will just have to see. I am scared and angry. He has already declared the law does not apply to him.
US - Land of freedom and liberty, and politically appointed judges.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 01, 2020, 12:22:26 PM
Political Legitimacy Dies in 2020
https://www.aier.org/article/political-legitimacy-dies-in-2020/
Quote
Because of the pandemic, many states are switching primarily to mail-in voting even though experiences with recent primaries were a disaster. In New York City, officials are still struggling to count mail-in ballots from the June primary. Up to 20% of ballots “were declared invalid before even being opened, based on mistakes with their exterior envelopes,” the Washington Post noted, thanks largely to missing postmarks or signatures. In Wisconsin, more than 20,000 “primary ballots were thrown out because voters missed at least one line on the form, rendering them invalid.”

Some states are mailing ballots to all the names on the voting lists, providing thousands of dead people the chance to vote from the grave. President Trump claims that the shift to mail-in voting could result in “the most corrupt vote in our nation’s history.” Trump is often wrong on issues but even a New York Daily News article tagged the recent primary results a “dumpster fire.” Delayed election results and potentially millions of disputed ballots could minimize support for whoever is designated the next president.
Quote
What happens if Trump continues to repel many if not most potential voters, and then Biden comes across in the presidential debates as clueless and doddering as did Special Counsel Robert Mueller in a congressional hearing last July? How many Americans will feel forced to choose between a scoundrel and an idiot?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on August 01, 2020, 12:45:02 PM
Imagine being a country and you can't figure out elections...

Edit: Even better: Imagine you are POTUS and people support you for not being able to figure out elections.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on August 08, 2020, 08:02:56 AM
Ground game: Republicans come knocking, Democrats stay home

"Donald Trump’s campaign says it knocked on over 1 million doors in the past week alone."

"Biden’s campaign says it knocked on zero. "

"Biden and the Democratic National Committee aren’t sending volunteers or staffers to talk with voters at home"

"Trump and the Republican National Committee, in contrast, started deploying mask-wearing field staffers and volunteers to the streets in June ... claims more than a million doors a week"

“From now to Election Day, voters may only see one campaign at their doors,”

"Reminding voters to fill out their ballot and then collecting them — or “ballot catching," as some field organizers call it — is one of the most critical programs on any campaign, although laws on it vary by state. "

"The decision to forgo door-knocking is part of a larger gamble that voters will give Biden credit for taking the coronavirus more seriously than Trump."

"The dueling approaches are apparent in down-ballot races as well"

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/04/trump-joe-biden-campaign-door-knockers-391454

sidd

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on August 08, 2020, 03:18:40 PM
Joe Biden NEEDS To Stop Talking

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0z9Ckr1ZUpI
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Pmt111500 on August 08, 2020, 05:30:56 PM
Joe Biden NEEDS To Stop Talking

Great... Do we get a presidente who's mute after el presidente who's nonsense... I guess that's not worse.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: kassy on August 08, 2020, 05:52:53 PM
So you have to be 35 to run for president. Why not add a rule you can not run again after 70?
And possibly limit the time you can be in senate or congress.


Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: SteveMDFP on August 08, 2020, 06:39:25 PM
Joe Biden NEEDS To Stop Talking

https://www.youtube .com/watch?v=0z9Ckr1ZUpI

I think posting just a video link is poor discourse for a discussion forum.  It's like posting just an article link, with no explanation or summary.

We have a thread for such bare links.  Maybe youtube video links should be relegated to such a thread.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on August 08, 2020, 06:59:37 PM
I respect your opinion about videos, Steve. Scroll by them any time if you wish.

Videos are a widely-used communication technique these days. Therefore i don't deem video format as inappropriate content.

You are, of course, free to open a dedicated youtube thread if you feel the need for such a thing.

And i recommend watching the video anyway. It's amusing if you are into politics and deliveries an outside perspective.

Quote
It's like posting just an article link, with no explanation or summary.

About that, are you aware of the ancillary copyright for press publishers?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancillary_copyright_for_press_publishers

It's a law that prohibits copy&pase. In the proper meaning of the law it's a copyright infringement in some countries to do that.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: SteveMDFP on August 08, 2020, 07:45:50 PM
I respect your opinion about videos, Steve. Scroll by them any time if you wish.

Videos are a widely-used communication technique these days. Therefore i don't deem video format as inappropriate content....

There's nothing wrong with providing a video link as part of a discussion.  But posting just a link with no context, no introduction, no explanation of why it's relevant -- that's inconsiderate of the time and bandwidth of the readership. 

It's exactly like posting just an article URL and nothing else.  Copyright law is irrelevant to this issue.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on August 08, 2020, 10:16:49 PM
Re: a link with no context, no introduction, no explanation of why it's relevant -- that's inconsiderate of the time and bandwidth of the readership. 

Precisely. I usually skip those.

sidd


Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on August 09, 2020, 01:15:26 AM
Pennsylvania in play: small towns turning republican

"I don’t get the Democratic Party anymore."

"a traditionally Democratic town off the I-81 corridor has shifted right along with Carbondale, Lackawanna County, and much of northeast Pennsylvania. While Democrats still outnumber Republicans in the state by about 780,000 voters, that edge has narrowed over the last four years as the GOP gained ground in once-safe Democratic bastions in northeast and southwest Pennsylvania. "

“We were always a Democratic town, always ... But the town has become very, very conservative”

"places like Carbondale are trending even more pro-Trump than four years ago."

" “My father was a lifelong Democrat, 46 years in the union, and he said, ‘You’re going to register as a Democrat.’ And I said, ‘OK,’ ”  ... Mazza switched this year."

"Many residents work about 20 miles away in Scranton, Joe Biden’s childhood hometown "

“No one talks to each other anymore. Unless it’s on Facebook and then it’s just people attacking one another.”

"Olyphant, like Carbondale, is a former coal town where Democrats are losing voters, including Mitchko. He became a Republican last year, after he and his wife lost their jobs ...  the company closed it in 2018 and shifted production to Mexico."

" “They call me fat racist,” Mitchko said, gesturing across the street to the house where Black Lives Matter and Mexican flags hung outside. "

"But even Biden supporters are nervous."

"For some residents here, Biden’s ties to nearby Scranton, which his family left when he was 10, actually make him less appealing."

“If he was crossing the street, I wouldn’t cross it to say hello to him ... What has he done for this region in 40 years in Washington?”

"a dozen Obama-Trump voters in the region, none planned to vote for Biden. Several are former elected Democrats who left the party."

“There are very few people in this area who don’t have a family member or who haven’t themselves had a job go overseas,”

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/pennsylvania/carbondale-pennsylvania-trump-biden-2020-election-20200808.html

I know that region well, Terruso is right, no love for Biden in Scranton.

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 09, 2020, 02:20:06 AM
Quote
"... He became a Republican last year, after he and his wife lost their jobs ...  the company closed it in 2018 and shifted production to Mexico."
Funny (:'() that this couple lost their jobs in 2018 and 'blame' the Democrats.  (Dems didn't even control the House of Representatives that year.)

But there is often a disconnect between why we do something and what we say was the reason for doing it.  'Social pressure' (what you think the neighbors think) is powerful stuff - it made 'everybody' (in some localities) a Democrat 80 years ago and 'everybody' (in those localities) a Republican today.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on August 09, 2020, 06:22:37 AM
Re: blame democrats for job loss to mexico in 2018

I know this neighbourhood. They been beaten like rented mules all their lives. They voted straight democrat ticket all their years. They got kicked in the face. Again, and again, and again.

So, now they going with the other gang of con artists.

Incidentally, that last description, "the other gang of con artists" is not mine. I got it from someone close to the area described, he lives bout fifty mile west of I-81.

sidd
 
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Florifulgurator on August 09, 2020, 01:44:44 PM
I respect your opinion about videos, Steve. Scroll by them any time if you wish.

Videos are a widely-used communication technique these days. Therefore i don't deem video format as inappropriate content....

There's nothing wrong with providing a video link as part of a discussion.  But posting just a link with no context, no introduction, no explanation of why it's relevant -- that's inconsiderate of the time and bandwidth of the readership. 

It's exactly like posting just an article URL and nothing else.  Copyright law is irrelevant to this issue.
So I took some random samplings of the video.

Biden's cognitive decline? Trumpist projection!
Biden is/was a stutterer, which says nothing about cognitive ability. There's a difference between  stumbling over the word "fitness" like Biden in the video - and not being able to pronounce "Yosemite" or confusing origins with "oranges", etc. etc, like Trump.

You don't have to know much about stuttering to see the fundamental difference. A journalist who doesn't is likely a GOP propagandist or simply unqualified.


Quote
Biden’s stutter, which he has said has affected him since childhood, is almost always undetectable for those who aren’t looking for it. But that doesn’t mean that it isn’t constantly making its presence known to the speaker himself, making it difficult to form certain sounds — a predicament only exacerbated further by nerves.

For people with stutters, it's not just difficulty with speaking that can be a major frustration in their lives, it’s the negative cultural perception they must deal with as well.
https://thehill.com/changing-america/respect/accessibility/471707-how-joe-bidens-gaffes-have-affected-his-campaign-and


Quote
My head will shake on a really bad stutter. People have casually asked whether I have Parkinson’s. I curl my toes inside my shoes or tap my foot as a distraction to help me get out of it, a behavior that I’ve repeated so often, it’s become a tic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/01/joe-biden-stutter-profile/602401/
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on August 09, 2020, 03:01:23 PM
Biden's cognitive decline? Trumpist projection!

Martin, i get it. You like Biden. But calling people with eyes and ears trumpists is not gonna help you making your point.

Don't get me wrong, i would actually like to see Biden win even though he is not at all someone who represents my political views. But at least he is a democrat (lower d democrat), not a fascist. This alone is a huge upgrade for the US. And comes with actual material benefits for people's lives. I can even laugh at him. When i see trump there is nothing but fremdschämen (extreme feeling of cringe on behalf of others). I can't believe there are people looking at him speaking and say 'yeah, that's my guy'. I will not understand that in 100 years.

But if you think Biden is all there i think you are the one deliberately looking away.

Come on man. *awkward fake laughter*
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on August 09, 2020, 03:25:23 PM
But at least he is a democrat (lower d democrat), not a fascist.

He's in the same club as Trump, so if Trump is a fascist, then so is he.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on August 09, 2020, 04:22:06 PM
Neven, would you agree with the following statement?

The US always checked some of the 14 characteristics of fascism, but not all. Only with trump, we have them all checked.

Link >> https://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/fasci14chars.html
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on August 09, 2020, 04:38:26 PM
I neither agree or disagree, because it's silly.

Trump and Biden both serve concentrated wealth, and this inevitably leads to forms of fascism. Trump is just the ugly face of it. Replacing him with a pretty face, will change absolutely nothing.

It's all a scam and a charade.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on August 09, 2020, 04:46:33 PM
Defining what we are talking about seems silly to you? Why is that?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on August 09, 2020, 04:53:40 PM
Because the definitions are part of the charade.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on August 09, 2020, 05:03:11 PM
What isn't a charade then? Is there anything in politics you find definable?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Pmt111500 on August 09, 2020, 05:28:42 PM
What isn't a charade then? Is there anything in politics you find definable?
Democrats of USA are encompassing a wide variety of political spectrum, thus they're not easily identifiable. Most of the leadership are though definitely right-wing in European terms. As is Biden. The lower level diplomatic discussions may seem to be political middle ground. No way this happens with republicans who are pretty much a convergent evolution with some jihadists.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on August 09, 2020, 05:50:13 PM
Yep. Not seeing a difference is deliberate. You have to look away very hard.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on August 09, 2020, 05:53:43 PM
Until 'limitless concentrated wealth' becomes a part of the political conversation, everything is a charade.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on August 09, 2020, 06:17:06 PM
Let's look at what happened today. Only today:

Trump actively destroying public institutions (the USPS in order to suppress votes), telling openly that he is about to steal the elections, walking out of a press conference (dude doesn't even know what accountability means), homeland security snitching people from the streets, giving billions to his goons (AGAIN), neo-nazi added to the staff, etc.

Neven, if you really think that would be the same with a Democratic president, i don't know what to say anymore.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on August 09, 2020, 06:28:15 PM
Neven, if you really think that would be the same with a Democratic president, i don't know what to say anymore.

That says more about you than about me. Keep focussing on the optics.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on August 09, 2020, 06:55:42 PM
Optics? Destroying public institutions, deeming POTUS being above the law, refusing accountability, introducing Gestapo methods, that's all optics for you. Really?

Good to know, Neven.

Ah, and BTW, good job moving the goalpost and not answering my question there.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on August 09, 2020, 07:00:04 PM
You're right Neven, the rich keep getting richer no matter who's sitting in the oval office. Racism, guns, abortion, crime, etc. are all just distractions so they can keep doing the bad shit without anyone paying attention. When people are divided it's much easier to make them swallow all the BS. MSNBC and Fucks News are just tools from the rich to help with that divide.

Obama, the democratic "Saint", killed thousands of people illegally with drones. But who ever talks about that?

People need to wake the fuck up!!! Our planet is dying, but let's talk about racism... Best distraction ever! Because racism will always be around...

Quote
What Hartig largely ignores is how flaws in the existing targeted killing policy, crafted under President Barack Obama, helped pave the way for President Donald Trump to kill more civilians.

“Based on initial reports, it’s actually not nearly as bad as we might have feared,” Hartig writes of the proposal, which would make it easier for the United States to kill more people off the battlefield with less oversight, greater secrecy, and no due process. Hartig notes that the plan is more tempered than Trump’s campaign vow to “take out” not only Islamic State members but also their families. That’s a perilously low bar to assess a dismantling of already insufficient rules for a program that has killed thousands of people in countries including Pakistan, Somalia, and Yemen—the vast majority of them during Obama’s presidency. Debates rage over how many of those were killed lawfully and how many were civilians.

The Trump administration proposal, reportedly advanced by his top national security advisers, would scrap protections that Obama approved in 2013 for lethal targeting, including the core requirement that the target pose a “continuing, imminent threat” to American lives. In an exclusive New York Times report, the Trump team rationalizes that dropping this safeguard will allow the US to kill not only the people it deems to be in the top echelon of a terrorist group but also those it considers lower-level members, even if they are far from any battlefield, and in countries such as Nigeria and the Philippines where the US is not already conducting such strikes. That Obama rule was already a fig leaf, as I explain shortly, but it may have been better than nothing.

https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/09/26/how-obamas-drones-rulebook-enabled-trump (https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/09/26/how-obamas-drones-rulebook-enabled-trump)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Pmt111500 on August 09, 2020, 10:29:57 PM
Neven, if you really think that would be the same with a Democratic president, i don't know what to say anymore.

That says more about you than about me. Keep focussing on the optics.
Ok you're pretty hard line leftie.

True it would be better if US would be a true democracy and not some country leaning to fascism. As they've not realised there can be a political left, I'd still choose the party which won't openly endorse fascism, as true fascism silences the soundbites of the political spectrum. With the right-wing democrats, like Biden, we can hear some of the voices of the left in US. It's not much better but it's not worse, if we choose to see (parts of) US as a potential ally.

Third party would've been nice, if that could live in a federalist country
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on August 09, 2020, 11:01:44 PM
Ok you're pretty hard line leftie.

See, this is exactly the reason why i shoot against people like Jimmy Dore or Krystal Ball so hard. They make lefties like Neven believe the real and only enemy is the DNC. And partly i agree, the DNC as is stands in the way of the progressives. But the conservatives in the DNC are losing. The electorate gets younger and more diverse. Now we see progressives win elections! That is something. They win as Democrats. The DNC can be used as a vessel for them. Because, well, there ain't no third party.

This upcoming election is not left vs. right! It's democracy vs. fascism. Ball does a great job hiding that while siding with fascists like Tucker Carlson.

The Hill Rising is funded for that reason only - by a trump goon. Go figure.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Pmt111500 on August 09, 2020, 11:26:57 PM
Yea, the dnc is not very democratic, but more so than the current system being installed over the pond.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Neven on August 10, 2020, 12:02:17 AM
I'm not a leftie. And I would never choose the party which secretly endorses fascism.

Trump is the symptom of something bigger. Biden and his ilk are very much part of that. Supporting Biden is supporting the next Trump.

If that's not your jumping-off point, you're going into labyrinth that is very difficult to get out of. You become part of that labyrinth and trap other people with you
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on August 10, 2020, 01:11:05 AM
I'm not a leftie. And I would never choose the party which secretly endorses fascism.

Trump is the symptom of something bigger. Biden and his ilk are very much part of that. Supporting Biden is supporting the next Trump.

If that's not your jumping-off point, you're going into labyrinth that is very difficult to get out of. You become part of that labyrinth and trap other people with you
100%+++
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on August 10, 2020, 02:06:22 AM

Fascism appears to be the most overused (and misused) word in politics today.  The only fascist party in the U.S. is the American nazi party.  No other party comes close to the fascist ideas of bygone times.  Democrats calling republicans fascists is akin to republicans calling democrats communists.  They are both trying to vilify their opponents.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/31/is-this-fascism-no-could-it-become-fascism-yes
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on August 10, 2020, 05:43:35 AM
Re: I'm not a leftie

Coulda fooled me ...

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on August 10, 2020, 07:03:21 AM
I'm not a leftie. And I would never choose the party which secretly endorses fascism.

So let's do what the openly fascist party helps. That makes sense.

Quote
If that's not your jumping-off point, you're going into labyrinth that is very difficult to get out of. You become part of that labyrinth and trap other people with you

What does that even mean?

Hey, Neven, the US exists! And there is an election coming up.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on August 10, 2020, 07:04:16 AM
(and misused) word

Google it!
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bluice on August 10, 2020, 12:56:24 PM
Trump is the symptom of something bigger.
Rather Trump is a symptom because we see nationalist/populist leaders gaining popularity around the world.

Intelligent people sometimes overanalyze politics and with all due respect I feel you are deep down that rabbit hole. Instead of looking for hidden agendas it's often more useful to hear what the politicians say, see what they do and know some background history.

When Trump wants to MAGA he is trying to make America something he feels it should be. So what could that mean? Trump doesn't give much value to immigrants, minorities or women. He openly discredits the democratic process and his political opponents. He opposes any kind of international cooperation unless it in his view directly benefits America (byebye AGW mitigation).

In general Trump, like Bolsonaro, sees the environment and other peoples as resources to exploit. Trump has lowered taxes for the rich while dismantling health care for the rest. Trump's draining the swamp has meant public offices for the family and fellow billionaires.

There's no reason to read between the lines because Trump openly says/does all these things.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Florifulgurator on August 10, 2020, 01:11:43 PM
You all forgot about the planet's carbon cycle. That's my political touchstone. F# left vs. right.

The fossil carbon thing is what divides the global oligarchy in two discernible camps. If you refuse to chose on simplistic polito-logical grounds you have lost the ground.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 10, 2020, 01:44:22 PM
Quote
Because, well, there ain't no third party.
Why not. b? As I understand it other countries can have third parties (and even fourth, fifth...). What is different about America?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on August 10, 2020, 01:56:03 PM
There is no parliamentary system in the US, Tom.

Also, in the US, politicians' campaigns are getting paid by constituency directly.

Those factors don't allow for a system we have in Europe. Without parliament, no coalitions. Without strict anti-corruption measures, you have the wrong incentives.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: kassy on August 10, 2020, 01:58:45 PM
Re: I'm not a leftie

Coulda fooled me ...

sidd

Well to safe the world we need to know what destroys it and this is capitalism/concentrated wealth.

Of course most of us in the west are very conditioned that capitalism is a good thing.

Theoretically we could have many different shades of capitalism but we have this exploit to the hilt version instead of a benign one were everyone is happily competing while not destroying the planet.

So where does that leave us? Wanting a future for our children makes you a leftie now and that should be weird. But will people notice?

Both president options are serving this system. Etc.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on August 10, 2020, 02:11:59 PM
The Biden campaign has a solid climate plan (yes, i know not enough blah).

Trump promises to cut down on environmental regulations and prop up coal and FF.

And those are just the facts at hand.

No difference at all for some though.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bluice on August 10, 2020, 02:18:52 PM
The Biden campaign has a solid climate plan (yes, i know not enough blah).

Trump promises to cut down on environmental regulations and prop up coal and FF.

And those are just the facts at hand.

No difference at all for some though.
Exactly. No need to find hidden meanings there.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on August 10, 2020, 03:57:19 PM
How did we get here? Because the Democrats saved us? As much as I hate Trump, I always said he was the best man to destroy America. If Biden gets elected, we will be right back where we were 12 years ago.

Would I rather have Biden over Trump? Sure, if I were an American. But I'm a European, and so it's time to begin the Eurasian age. America is toast anyway. Trump will only accelerate that.

Do you really think the planet will be saved with a Biden presidency? I don't think so. The poor will get some scraps again while the rich will keep getting richer. Four more years of Trump is the only way to destroy the American system of greedy capitalism. We have to go through the valley first before we can get out of the hole.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Florifulgurator on August 10, 2020, 11:05:01 PM
The Biden campaign has a solid climate plan (yes, i know not enough blah).

Trump promises to cut down on environmental regulations and prop up coal and FF.

And those are just the facts at hand.

No difference at all for some though.
Exactly. No need to find hidden meanings there.

Exactly. Plain empiricism. Who equates Biden and Trump hasn't yet got the message from the carbon cycle. (Or is a Trumputin asset.)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Florifulgurator on August 11, 2020, 05:52:11 PM
Do you really think the planet will be saved with a Biden presidency?
Not necessarily. But a Trump presidency will certainly accelerate destruction and very likely push the planet (and human society) into the abyss. No climbing out of it later, against the avalanche of falling rubble of a crumbling civilization.


Quote
Four more years of Trump is the only way to destroy the American system of greedy capitalism. We have to go through the valley first before we can get out of the hole.
It is a maso-populist death wish. The time for that has run out. Ask Greta...

A pseudointellectual named Jimmy Dore had the same stupid theory. He conveniently forgot about the Supreme Court (which has decades of repercussions). Trump will not destroy the "system". He will make it worse and harden it against any democratic checks and balances (however imperfect they are in practise). Swamp the drain... Trumputin is the f#ing fossil system.

If e.g. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is your polit hero: She would have zero chance of becoming (vice) president after a 2nd Trump term. If you like her, first vote Biden, then make it impossible for Biden to ignore her. That of course needs getting engaged, and not just complain and parrot (geno)suicidal armchair politologist theories.



https://youtu.be/oOjJtEkKMX4
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Pmt111500 on August 12, 2020, 07:09:44 AM
Looks like Kamala Harris might be the first female president for US unless Drumpf gets re-elected. No doubt republicans want to see her birth certificate now. It's though rather easy for republicans to cheat in elections so this 'Horrible Harry' (Kamala means Horrible in finnish) won't get the chance to declare Biden dementic.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on August 13, 2020, 12:53:07 PM
(https://i.redd.it/xjpdcsox0og51.jpg)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Bruce Steele on August 13, 2020, 04:45:46 PM
Freegrass, Once upon a time Reagan “ was the best man to destroy America “ . The right wing still considers him a hero however.
 Trump has done plenty of damage to most of us here but somehow he still gets good ratings on the economy. The rich still like him and they will vote for him just like last time. Our national  debt has been a gift from the poor of the future to the rich of today.
 I voted Bernie in the primary because I thought the youth vote mattered. I am an old white guy however and I will have no problem voting for a Biden/Harris ticket. Lest the left is willing to perform another circular shooting squad like in 2016 it would behoove Dems and liberals alike to vote for the only chance we have to replace Trumputin with representatives that will at least entertain , and hopefully incorporate, the new left in decision making.
 If the left repeats the dumb decision to sit on their hands and hands this election over to the
Neonazi  again then the left deserves the knock on the door at midnight that will soon follow.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on August 13, 2020, 06:54:43 PM
The 2016 election was not lost because the left stayed home.  Rather Clinton could not muster the black vote that Obama did.  The black vote dropped 4.5% from 2012 to 2016.  The DNC is trying to win that vote back with this pick.  By itself, that would be enough to defeat Trump in November.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on August 13, 2020, 09:59:11 PM
Well, if she wasn't a cop and BLM was a movement at the moment, i would agree, Walrus.

It's a wildcard, not a guarantee to win the black vote i think.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Bruce Steele on August 13, 2020, 11:23:55 PM
 So 2016 was about 55D 27R the rest third party for the youth vote which was similar to the 2012 republican spread with Romney. So if the left wants that spread to look different they need to get the youth vote out . Didn’t happen the last two elections. Try to get behind the ticket and hope the election will carry the house and senate. And pray for Ginsberg health.
 I watched the Biden/Harris vp speeches. I really liked the way Kamala modulated her voice. Speaking to an audience while controlling your voice the way she did is a real skill. Hillary was terrible at it although I still think she was far better qualified to serve as president than Trump. I am hoping Kamala will be President some day and how she speaks matters. As does what she says of course but she is VP now and Biden is who we vote for...
 
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER on August 14, 2020, 01:43:46 AM
Well, if she wasn't a cop and BLM was a movement at the moment, i would agree

In this regard, I think the selection could actually come across as tone deaf at best and likely insulting to many young voters and activists. Consider the fact that the Dem VP is a former prosecutor who often went after young, black, non-violent offenders in her state for marijuana charges and then proceeded to use a racial stereotype joke involving her heritage to brag about marijuana use on the campaign trail in order to seem "with it" (though don't worry the DNC made sure to vote down any attempts at decriminalizing/legalizing it, so the hardball prosecutor still admitted criminal history). Similarly, she is extremely anti-gun, yet owned and carried a handgun for years. Rights for me, not for thee, I guess. Kamala is a very frustrating and hypocritical politician who I have very little respect for. As such, I think the pick was terrible and there are plenty of other, much better, less authoritarian female and PoC candidates that Biden could have sprung for. There is a realistic and justified potential that she may do more harm than good.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on August 14, 2020, 01:47:49 AM
Anton at claremont review on the case for Trump and a path to victory: Republican party must move leftward on economics

"President Trump enjoys the overwhelming loyalty of Republican voters—but his hold on Republican donors, and especially officials, is much more tenuous. He ran against them and won—and most of them will never forgive him."

"President Trump already renegotiated two of our worst trade deals ... he’s reversed the China policy of the last four presidents combined. "

"disengaging from existing conflicts while not starting any new ones."

"there’s little wrong with President Trump that more Trump couldn’t solve. More populism. More nationalism. More patriotism. More law and order. More full-throated advocacy for the neglected American people, for the working class, for the Rust Belt and rural America, for religious believers and law-abiding gun owners. More defense of free speech against tech and corporate censorship and suppression, more support for his voters when they or their interests are viciously attacked. In short, more adherence to the 2016 agenda."

"Historically the most common division in any republic has been economic, with religion and culture providing the underlying bedrock of unity."

"The merest shred of cultural unity would seem so far out of reach as to be scarcely worth trying for ... Which leaves us with economics."

"How to do you reconcile—much less unify—a fundamentally rural, small-town and small-city manufacturing-agricultural economy with an urban and affluent-suburban finance-information-managerial economy? Especially when the profits of the latter so depend on strip-mining the resources—outsourcing the industries and replacing the labor—of the former?"

"The Democrats long ago abandoned “the common man”"

"What’s needed, then, is a Trumpist political party focused squarely on “old economy”—rural, manufacturing, and blue-collar interests. Which means, in most if not all cases, a party actively opposed to the program of the ruling class. If the Republican Party can become that, all to the good. If it can’t, it should go out of business."

"saving the Republican Party will require, in no small measure, moving it to the left economically."

"a party much friendlier to the interests of workers: the party of tight labor markets and rising wages, of reasonable worker safety and environmental regulations, of far-sighted government spending on infrastructure, and, above all, of industrial and trade policies that favor and encourage domestic manufacturing. Republican free-trade, low-tax, no-regulation dogma stopped serving the interests of at least half of the Republican voting base decades ago. The wing of the party that still sings from that hymnal today is nothing but a controlled-opposition adjunct of the ruling class. Its dogma will have to be smashed."

"to succeed the Republican Party needs to become more like the old Democratic Party—more worker-friendly, more concerned with wage and wealth inequality—but also the opposite of today’s Democratic Party: openly nationalistic on economics and trade, stalwartly traditional on morality and culture. If the Republicans can so transform themselves, they have a chance. If they cannot, then the party will have to be destroyed and replaced"

"Politically, Republicans would have to walk a very fine line: maximize their white support—especially in the Rust Belt and among those on the lower half of the income/education ladder—while actively campaigning for blue-collar, working- and lower middle-class black and Hispanic votes"

"the Republicans will need a new “message.” The one they’ve been using for the last two decades—essentially a fusion of the 1980 platform with pledges never to stop fighting in the Middle East—not only no longer inspires the party’s base, it positively repulses many of them."

https://claremontreviewofbooks.com/the-case-for-trump/

That phrase "a controlled-opposition adjunct of the ruling class" has been applied to the Democratic party as well ...

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on August 14, 2020, 03:54:14 PM
Excellent post sidd.  Both parties have abandoned the working man, which have been the key to recent elections.  There is a ripe playing field for a third party to form and encompass these voters.  I seriously doubt the Republican party will do so.  Trump was able to win over many of these voters in 2016, but the party was not behind him.  After Trump, the GOP may just abandon them altogether.

Many in the Democratic party has lost sight of them also, moving towards a state-controlled economy.  The manufacturing unions, a long-standing Democratic stronghold, are no longer a party guarantee.  Biden and the centrists in the party have been able to keep many loyal to their cause.  However, they do not support the leftward movement of the party.

Forming a third party is inherently difficult in the U.S.  The obstacles put in place by the two majors are great.  The middle is less passionate and less unified than either end, and consequently, less likely to mobilize for a united party.  IMO, the best case for a third party formation, would be for the Democratic party to split into the leftist and centrists.  This would retain party infrastructure for fundraising and campaigning that a newly formed third party would lack.  The divide in the party is growing, as evident by the primary season this year.  The party has divided in the past (1860, 1968), and may do so again.  Unfortunately, third parties have never been able to last, eventually being absorbed into one of the two others.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: SteveMDFP on August 14, 2020, 07:01:23 PM
Well, if she wasn't a cop and BLM was a movement at the moment, i would agree

In this regard, I think the selection could actually come across as tone deaf at best and likely insulting to many young voters and activists. Consider the fact that the Dem VP is a former prosecutor who often went after young, black, non-violent offenders in her state for marijuana charges and then proceeded to use a racial stereotype joke involving her heritage to brag about marijuana use on the campaign trail in order to seem "with it" (though don't worry the DNC made sure to vote down any attempts at decriminalizing/legalizing it, so the hardball prosecutor still admitted criminal history). Similarly, she is extremely anti-gun, yet owned and carried a handgun for years. Rights for me, not for thee, I guess. Kamala is a very frustrating and hypocritical politician who I have very little respect for. As such, I think the pick was terrible and there are plenty of other, much better, less authoritarian female and PoC candidates that Biden could have sprung for. There is a realistic and justified potential that she may do more harm than good.

I can understand this position, but I'd like to offer a contrasting perspective.  Neither a prosecutor nor an attorney general has the luxury of ignoring or invalidating statutory law, whatever they think of it.  If the legislature passes a criminal statute, and a police officer arrests someone in violation, these individuals cannot have their charges dismissed on a blanket basis.

My understanding is that she has been an advocate for drug courts and mental health courts, which seek to divert cases out of criminal justice punishment.  These are inadequate efforts, but from the perspective of a prosecutor, that may be the best that can be done within the system.

As for owning a gun while advocating gun control, I see that as being analogous to a rich progressive who advocates for higher taxes on the wealthy while paying only the required tax.  It's not inconsistent.  Seeking a gun-free society is not in conflict with owning a gun while living in a society that is far from gun-free.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on August 14, 2020, 07:38:12 PM
As for owning a gun while advocating gun control, I see that as being analogous to a rich progressive who advocates for higher taxes on the wealthy while paying only the required tax.  It's not inconsistent.  Seeking a gun-free society is not in conflict with owning a gun while living in a society that is far from gun-free.

I like the logic in this one. Convinced!

Not convinced of the running mate. Just that point.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on August 14, 2020, 08:01:21 PM
So that is an interesting ad! Sidd, Steve if you watch one youtube video this year, let it be this.

"If you break the sacred contract, the people make a revolution."

Ed Markey's new ad says "it's time to start asking what your country can do for you"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86-3yuzn5UU

(Sorry, Kassy, i can't make a description of the message of this ad, i'm not Goethe. ;) )
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: SteveMDFP on August 14, 2020, 08:27:28 PM
So that is an interesting ad! Sidd, Steve if you watch one youtube video this year, let it be this.

"If you break the sacred contract, the people make a revolution."

Ed Markey's new ad says "it's time to start asking what your country can do for you"

It's a great ad, indeed.  I like Markey a lot.  I don't ordinarily pay much attention to communications with an obvious bias (e.g., any advertising), but this is really good.  I'll share it.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blumenkraft on August 14, 2020, 08:33:30 PM
It's a great ad, indeed.  I like Markey a lot.  I don't ordinarily pay much attention to communications with an obvious bias (e.g., any advertising), but this is really good.  I'll share it.

Glad you watched it. This is how progressives get their message through. Running on pressuring Biden from the left, he has to move left. This will work!
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: FishOutofWater on August 15, 2020, 02:44:16 AM
Biden was involved in legislation that helped increase the concentration of wealth and I agree with Neven about the underlying conditions that lead to fascism but obviously Neven does not live here because he does not get it that Trump is a pig fucker who must be removed from office before he kills us or starts a civil war.

Forget ideology. Trump is letting hundreds of thousands of people die because he is a mad man. The U.S. is one of the worst fucking places in tho world for the virus and the Republican areas like the Florida panhandle are COVID disaster areas because the idiots living there have been convinced that something as simple as wearing a face mask is taking away their freedoms, or worse, they believed that the whole thing was a hoax based on insane right wing conspiracy theories and Trump's ranting and raving.

I have temporarily lived next to Trumpers. They were hard core racists. Racism, not economics, is the driving force behind Trump's white working class support. Trump is completely fucking over working people now, but some still support him because of his racist policies.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: interstitial on August 15, 2020, 07:26:04 AM
If you live in the US please do not get distracted by side issues. Yes Biden will not be a good president. That is more of a side issue at this point. I do not know if it is too late already but trump is setting the stage for the kind of fake elections dictators use. Another four years of trump destroying our country and installing his cronies and it will not matter how we vote in the future.  >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( :'( :'( :'( :'(
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on August 18, 2020, 12:52:58 AM
Dayen at prospect: Farmers unhappy with Vilsack and Heitcamp on Biden team

"Business-friendly ag advisers emphasize trade, believing that promoting overseas markets will translate to prosperity for family farmers and ranchers. But “farmers do not export, Cargill exports,” Maxwell counters, arguing that Big Ag domination is a far greater challenge. If you don’t profit from what you produce, he reasons, more trade won’t fix the problem."

"Export strategies force farmers into monoculture crops and overproduction ... Small livestock producers are forced to sell low to concentrated meatpackers and watch as they pass on inflated prices to groceries, enjoying the middleman profits. “The big guys won’t process for the little guys and are putting the little guy out of business,”"

"over 80 percent of rural voters reject ag monopolies and factory farms. The Biden team, by toeing the corporate ag line, is “leaving votes on the table that perhaps they shouldn’t,” "

“You can talk to Vilsack and Heitkamp all you want, but more corporate control of ag is not the answer.”

"The biggest blow in the Trump years came when the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) rolled back rules that would have banned Big Ag retaliation against small farmers and given them stronger legal tools to prevent abuse. USDA chief Sonny Perdue, himself tied to chicken industry interests, then dissolved the agency that protects small farms"

"Perdue wrote the epitaph for the family farmer when he said at a dairy expo last year, “In America the big get bigger and the small go out.”"

" The top four hog firms control two-thirds of the market; the top four cattle firms, 85 percent. Ninety percent of all chickens are raised through the brutal “tournament” system, where farmers are pitted against one another. Producers specify how farmers must house, feed, and care for chicks, and the fattest ones get sold; farmers that lose the tournament get nothing ... Monopolists have grabbed a significant share of food profits. Farmers used to earn 37 cents of every retail dollar; now it’s down to 15."

“We’re being mined to make Big Money more big money.”

"After the election, Obama’s USDA (under Vilsack’s control) and the Justice Department set out on a five-city listening tour of farm country, hearing stories about Big Ag price discrimination, abuse of market power, and intimidation ...  no enforcement actions were taken, more mergers were approved, and GIPSA rules were delayed and ultimately weakened. "

“He did nothing, and Vilsack did nothing and the Department of Justice did nothing ... They totally betrayed us.”

“With who Heidi Heitkamp is, with the corporate hat on, it doesn’t look good.”

"Heitkamp was the top Senate recipient of funds from the crop production industry in the 2018 cycle, with over $247,000, and she received money from meatpacking giant Smithfield Foods and its Chinese-owned parent company WH Group. In 2018, Heitkamp voted against an amendment to the farm bill that would have added transparency to “checkoff” programs intended for agricultural marketing, which have become slush funds for lobbying organizations, used in campaigns that hurt family farmers."

"“The track record of Tom Vilsack is abysmal when it comes to independent family agriculture,” says Maxwell. In addition to his role disappointing farmers while at USDA, critics point to him taking a job as president and CEO of the U.S. Dairy Export Council just days after the end of Obama’s term."

“He is owned lock, stock, and barrel by Wall Street and the packers and the food companies,”

“the person that candidate Biden is listening to, has an eight-year commitment of not living up to those issues.”

“If you could have things processed locally, you bring back those economies, supporting the local hardware store and local schools, and money stays in the community,”

“We’ve become part of a secondhand economy,”

“We’re scared shitless. We cannot survive with the policy that exists. There is not going to be anything left of rural America.”

https://prospect.org/power/farmers-reject-bidens-pro-corporate-rural-advisers/

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on August 19, 2020, 10:02:34 PM
Godfrey at atlantic: Sanders supporters in Ohio doubt Biden will move leftward

"Democrats would rather listen to young people singing the national anthem than to their political opinions."

"watched the Democratic National Convention’s kickoff with, it seemed, varying amounts of bitterness. "

"when John Kasich, the former Republican governor of Ohio, appeared on-screen, the chat descended briefly into despair."

" this outreach to Republicans confirms their worst fears about a potential Biden administration. They worry that Democrats have abandoned core party values in their effort to oust Trump, and they fear that by welcoming Never Trumpers into the fold, the Democratic Party will become more conservative."

" a faction that couldn’t build a coalition big enough to make Sanders the Democratic nominee, and is still grappling with the reality that it represents a minority of the country."

"In Ohio, Kasich “is the enemy among Democrats,” Deamer said. “To see him reincarnated as this nice, middle-of-the-road guy”—and occupying a time slot that could have gone to a progressive—is “a real slap in the face.” "

 “I feel like I’ve been abandoned by my party.”

“Democrats have become a more moderate party in the past four years, because there’s a new name for suburban Republicans who don’t like Trump—and that’s Democrats,”

“The concept that these [former Republicans] are somehow to be trusted and have any [intention] at all of keeping with the proposed Democratic agenda is preposterous,”

" No one said anything when Sanders promised that Biden would do his utmost as president to “move the country forward.” Even he couldn’t make them believe it."

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/08/john-kasichs-dnc-speech-angered-progressives/615361/

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on August 19, 2020, 10:09:05 PM
Yglesias at vox: Nostalgia ain't what it used to be

" A large and growing bloc, including many Americans without college degrees, simply sees the world in more zero-sum, more moralistic, and less optimistic terms than the kind of college-educated professionals who mostly run political campaigns and the media. "

" Democrats are doing little to give a voice or a face to these populist sentiments in either their left or more moderate forms."

"The party is celebrating its past more than its future, and, in so doing, making a very strong pitch for nostalgia. With double-digit unemployment and thousands dying per day of a new disease, there’s obviously something to be said for turning back the clock ... there’s also a real danger in this path."

"A common anti-restorationist sentiment, averred even by establishmentarian figures like Pod Save America host Jon Favreau, is the idea that “Trump is a symptom, not the problem.”

"What’s often less clear is what exactly he’s a symptom of. "

"low-trust voters are something of a blind spot for the Democratic Party, which is run and funded by a group of people — cosmopolitan, diverse, well-educated, economically secure — who see the world in positive terms and who feel their personal concerns are frequently catered to by cultural tastemakers. "

"even as Trump is badly underperforming his 2016 results with white voters (especially women and college graduates), he’s doing a bit better with Black voters and with Hispanic voters. "

"Democrats aren’t going to suddenly stop being the party of college-educated cosmopolitans, and Joe Biden couldn’t reasonably campaign as a revolutionary outsider ...  it’s striking that Democrats are choosing to dedicate so little time to highlighting voices who could speak to any of the demographic groups on the margins of their coalition — the diverse group of mostly young, mostly working-class people who feel the political system has lost interest in them. "

https://www.vox.com/2020/8/17/21369922/democratic-convention-dnc-speeches-lineup

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sedziobs on August 19, 2020, 11:50:07 PM
If Biden wins and his agenda does show a rightward shift due to moderate Republican influence, that may provide the impetus for progressives to finally jump ship and coalesce around the Greens or a new party. It's too late for that now. I think they would need to start at the beginning of the 4 year cycle with no involvement in the Democratic primary process.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Bruce Steele on August 20, 2020, 04:21:18 PM
Dems drop “ending fossil fuel subsidies” from platform.

https://www.vox.com/2020/8/19/21375039/dnc-2020-democrats-platform-climate-change-fossil-fuel-subsidies
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: gerontocrat on August 20, 2020, 11:31:35 PM
Dems drop “ending fossil fuel subsidies” from platform.

https://www.vox.com/2020/8/19/21375039/dnc-2020-democrats-platform-climate-change-fossil-fuel-subsidies
I guess that is why Neven started a thread "the problem with corporate Democrats and how to kick them out"
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Bruce Steele on August 20, 2020, 11:58:33 PM
I would imagine they were told they might lose some electoral college votes deemed critical.
My wife and I donated to Obama hoping he would act on climate change but all the energy went into healthcare. I would hope we could do better this time around but I sure don’t hear squat in the Democrats convention speeches that for some reason my wife watches ,and I endure. More tonite.

The oil patch is not doing well these days so if and when Covid subsides I would imagine Democrat’s taking credit for the next oil boom, should they win the elections. I assume the economy is tanking no matter who wins so people will hope somehow oil pulls us back from the abyss.
 There will be large efforts at renewables from the Democrats as a jobs program but there will also be a push to restart fracking so if anyone remembers an “ all of the above “ energy policy I guess you may see version 2.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on August 21, 2020, 12:56:26 AM
Martin at wsws: CIA democrats are back

"In 2020, the intervention of the CIA Democrats continues on what is arguably an equally significant scale: besides the reelection campaigns of the 11 representatives who won seats in the House in 2018, half a dozen of those who lost 2018 races are running again in 2020. Some of these are running for House seats again, while others have been promoted by the Democratic Party leadership and are running for the US Senate. And an entire new crop of military-intelligence operatives is being brought forward, some running for Republican seats targeted by the Democratic leadership as possible takeovers, others in seats not currently considered competitive."

"at least 34 Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives have a primarily military-intelligence background, up from 30 in 2018, as well as three of the party’s 35 candidates for the US Senate, compared to zero in 2018. For each branch of Congress, this represents about 10 percent of the total."

"Three Democrats seeking US Senate seats in November have a primarily military-intelligence background, including two who ran unsuccessfully for House seats in 2018. In each case, the CIA Democrat won a contested primary, with the support of Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), defeating a more liberal candidate."

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/08/20/ciad-a20.html

sidd

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 21, 2020, 01:23:01 PM
Do the Dems Want To Win?
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2020/08/do-the-dems-want-to-win/
Quote
Why would a bunch of power-hungry folk (as all politicians and their sponsors are) want to screw up their own chance at obtaining power? Well, the lack of good candidates may well be a factor, but there’s something much bigger: the US economy, like most if not all western economies, is wobbling precariously on a precipice, and about to fall off. As I labeled it recently: The Bottom Is Falling Out.

Our entire present reality is still somewhat new, the COVID pandemic, its fallout, the bailouts, the government checks, the sick and the dead, but at some point it will all start to become a “normal” part of life. That doesn’t mean, however, that the economy will return to “normal” (whatever anybody ever thought that meant).

An enormous number of businesses will never reopen, entire fields will be obliterated, re: tourism, airlines, a large swath of retail stores. The unemployment that generates will be with us for many years. The Great Depression will become a mere footnote in most history books.

And the parties in charge in various countries, including the GOP in America, will be the ones blamed for most of the ensuing problems. If you’re a Democrat behind-the-curtain wizard, wouldn’t you at least consider saying: I think I’ll pass for this round, and let Trump take the heat?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on August 25, 2020, 11:29:16 AM
This is the third hurricane to hit during a republican convention. When will those religious nutcases get the message?

2008
Quote
President George W. Bush did not attend the convention (although he did appear by satellite), in order to oversee relief efforts to help citizens recover from Hurricane Gustav.

2012
Quote
Due to the approach of Hurricane Isaac, convention officials changed the convention schedule on August 26, 2012
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on August 25, 2020, 03:38:05 PM
This is the third hurricane to hit during a republican convention. When will those religious nutcases get the message?

2008
Quote
President George W. Bush did not attend the convention (although he did appear by satellite), in order to oversee relief efforts to help citizens recover from Hurricane Gustav.

2012
Quote
Due to the approach of Hurricane Isaac, convention officials changed the convention schedule on August 26, 2012

What message?  That the end of August is prime hurricane season?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 27, 2020, 12:34:16 PM
This guy is not the most reliable on the Web, but his article cites sources and makes some scary points:
2020 Election Nightmare: Armies Of Lawyers Are Ready To Fight A Long Legal Battle Over The Election Results
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/2020-election-nightmare-armies-of-lawyers-are-ready-to-fight-a-long-legal-battle-over-the-election-results
Quote
Armies of lawyers have already been recruited, reasons to question the legitimacy of the 2020 election results are already being floated, and top politicians on both sides are already urging a fight to the bitter end.  Initially, it appeared that we might avoid this sort of a scenario.  For several months Joe Biden had a large lead in all of the major national polls, and some people were even discussing the possibility of a “landslide”.  But now the polls are tightening up, and this is especially true in the swing states which will ultimately decide the outcome of the election.  If the race is quite tight once we get to election night, it is likely that neither side will be willing to concede until every conceivable legal challenge is completely exhausted.  That could mean an extended legal battle lasting for months, and that is something that none of us should want to see.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on August 27, 2020, 01:57:58 PM
This guy is not the most reliable on the Web, but his article cites sources and makes some scary points:
2020 Election Nightmare: Armies Of Lawyers Are Ready To Fight A Long Legal Battle Over The Election Results
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/2020-election-nightmare-armies-of-lawyers-are-ready-to-fight-a-long-legal-battle-over-the-election-results
Quote
Armies of lawyers have already been recruited, reasons to question the legitimacy of the 2020 election results are already being floated, and top politicians on both sides are already urging a fight to the bitter end.  Initially, it appeared that we might avoid this sort of a scenario.  For several months Joe Biden had a large lead in all of the major national polls, and some people were even discussing the possibility of a “landslide”.  But now the polls are tightening up, and this is especially true in the swing states which will ultimately decide the outcome of the election.  If the race is quite tight once we get to election night, it is likely that neither side will be willing to concede until every conceivable legal challenge is completely exhausted.  That could mean an extended legal battle lasting for months, and that is something that none of us should want to see.

I suspect this will not happen.  This had the potential in 2000, but the Supreme Court stepped in.  The electors must vote on December 14, so the results must be validated by then.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on August 27, 2020, 02:55:40 PM
This is the third hurricane to hit during a republican convention. When will those religious nutcases get the message?

2008
Quote
President George W. Bush did not attend the convention (although he did appear by satellite), in order to oversee relief efforts to help citizens recover from Hurricane Gustav.

2012
Quote
Due to the approach of Hurricane Isaac, convention officials changed the convention schedule on August 26, 2012

What message?  That the end of August is prime hurricane season?
No, that their God keeps messing up their conventions, but not those of the liberals that want to actually save His planet... ;)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on August 27, 2020, 05:01:50 PM
This is the third hurricane to hit during a republican convention. When will those religious nutcases get the message?

2008
Quote
President George W. Bush did not attend the convention (although he did appear by satellite), in order to oversee relief efforts to help citizens recover from Hurricane Gustav.

2012
Quote
Due to the approach of Hurricane Isaac, convention officials changed the convention schedule on August 26, 2012

What message?  That the end of August is prime hurricane season?
No, that their God keeps messing up their conventions, but not those of the liberals that want to actually save His planet... ;)

But the liberals do not care for the people inhabiting the planet.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 27, 2020, 06:30:20 PM
Quote
...But now the polls are tightening up, ...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/ composite data doesn't particularly support this opinion.

Electoral-vote.com's history of (non-partisan) state polls don't either (January to now).
projected Electoral College votes: https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/ec_graph-2020.html
polling by state:  https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Graphs/all.html
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on August 27, 2020, 09:13:57 PM
Kamala, what a disaster!!!!
Are you watching this?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on August 28, 2020, 02:42:27 PM
Quote
...But now the polls are tightening up, ...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/ composite data doesn't particularly support this opinion.


Actually your link does.  The composite national poll doesn't support this opinion, because it is skewed by big swings towards Biden in CA and NY.

In the battleground states of Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin the polling shows a distinct shift towards Trump and away from Biden over the past two months, with an average movement of 2.4%.  This ranged from 1.1% in NC to 5.1% in MN.  These states are worth 112 EVs, and Biden needs 41 to win the election.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on August 30, 2020, 01:40:10 AM
Trump is going to win in a blow-out. I could see even NY going for him. The Democrats are totally done on a local and national level. People cannot express support for him without an angry mob of PC fascists breaking down their door and coming for their employment. And Democrats wonder why they lose elections.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Paddy on August 30, 2020, 11:30:38 AM
Trump is going to win in a blow-out. I could see even NY going for him. The Democrats are totally done on a local and national level. People cannot express support for him without an angry mob of PC fascists breaking down their door and coming for their employment. And Democrats wonder why they lose elections.

Not going to happen. "Angry mob" fearmongering is overblown. Plus the current aggro all happened under Trump's watch, so how is it Biden's fault? He wasn't the one stirring shit by teargassing peaceful protesters for a photo op etc.

EDIT: Ask yourself this. If significant riots were taking place towards the end of Obama's presidency and the situation was being more aggravated than resolved by his actions, would you give him a free pass? And did you blame /would you have blamed Trump for any events towards the end of Obama's presidency? It's possible your bias may be showing.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on August 30, 2020, 03:06:00 PM
Trump is going to win in a blow-out. I could see even NY going for him. The Democrats are totally done on a local and national level. People cannot express support for him without an angry mob of PC fascists breaking down their door and coming for their employment. And Democrats wonder why they lose elections.

Not going to happen. "Angry mob" fearmongering is overblown. Plus the current aggro all happened under Trump's watch, so how is it Biden's fault? He wasn't the one stirring shit by teargassing peaceful protesters for a photo op etc.

EDIT: Ask yourself this. If significant riots were taking place towards the end of Obama's presidency and the situation was being more aggravated than resolved by his actions, would you give him a free pass? And did you blame /would you have blamed Trump for any events towards the end of Obama's presidency? It's possible your bias may be showing.

Yes, it happened under Trump's watch.  What could be blamed on him is the police killings and his lack of action towards them.  The angry mobs are leftist reactions to the situation.  It does not appear that bbr is blaming it on Biden.  Rather, it is part of the leftist mentality that anything rightist should be defeated, and violently if necessary.  That is the philosophy that is destroying the Democratic party and turning voters away.  Politics has gotten much more confrontational recently.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on August 30, 2020, 04:06:21 PM
Trump is going to win in a blow-out. I could see even NY going for him. The Democrats are totally done on a local and national level. People cannot express support for him without an angry mob of PC fascists breaking down their door and coming for their employment. And Democrats wonder why they lose elections.

Not going to happen. "Angry mob" fearmongering is overblown. Plus the current aggro all happened under Trump's watch, so how is it Biden's fault? He wasn't the one stirring shit by teargassing peaceful protesters for a photo op etc.

EDIT: Ask yourself this. If significant riots were taking place towards the end of Obama's presidency and the situation was being more aggravated than resolved by his actions, would you give him a free pass? And did you blame /would you have blamed Trump for any events towards the end of Obama's presidency? It's possible your bias may be showing.
The riots are being caused by the Democrats... the depression we are now in was also caused by the Democrats... I am seeing a theme here?

If it were not for Powell's swift action at the Fed the economy would be even worse, we have few levers to counter the Democrats' corporate-media complex but Trump managed to use them effectively.

I think Trump has honestly done the best job possible re: COVID, the herd immunity strategy we have implemented a la Sweden has been successful in most areas, and those with Democrat governors will be the last to return to normal because they no longer believe in science.

It is crazy how quickly the Democrats surpassed the Republicans as the party of pseudoscience and fascist bullshit.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on August 30, 2020, 10:00:35 PM
Incidents like what happened in Portland play into the hands of the Trump campaign.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/08/29/blm-activists-counterprotesters-clash-portland-leading-arrests/?wpmk=1&wpisrc=al_news__alert-politics--alert-national&utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=wp_news_alert_revere&location=alert&pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJjb29raWVuYW1lIjoid3BfY3J0aWQiLCJpc3MiOiJDYXJ0YSIsImNvb2tpZXZhbHVlIjoiNTk3YzFmNmJhZTdlOGE2ODE2ZjNkN2U0IiwidGFnIjoid3BfbmV3c19hbGVydF9yZXZlcmUiLCJ1cmwiOiJodHRwczovL3d3dy53YXNoaW5ndG9ucG9zdC5jb20vbmF0aW9uLzIwMjAvMDgvMjkvYmxtLWFjdGl2aXN0cy1jb3VudGVycHJvdGVzdGVycy1jbGFzaC1wb3J0bGFuZC1sZWFkaW5nLWFycmVzdHMvP3dwbWs9MSZ3cGlzcmM9YWxfbmV3c19fYWxlcnQtcG9saXRpY3MtLWFsZXJ0LW5hdGlvbmFsJnV0bV9zb3VyY2U9YWxlcnQmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249d3BfbmV3c19hbGVydF9yZXZlcmUmbG9jYXRpb249YWxlcnQifQ.S4erFfJUA2dmVBYJdSgrZt743TUDfSv-rzGQxLRqjPI

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Paddy on August 30, 2020, 11:18:16 PM
.

I think Trump has honestly done the best job possible re: COVID, the herd immunity strategy we have implemented a la Sweden has been successful in most areas, and those with Democrat governors will be the last to return to normal because they no longer believe in science.

It is crazy how quickly the Democrats surpassed the Republicans as the party of pseudoscience and fascist bullshit.

All of this is just so totally at odds with Trump's record on not backing facemasks or social distancing, the ongoing death toll in the US that's significantly worse than what's going on in Canada, or Europe, his rambling on about injecting bleach, and talking about climate change as a Chinese hoax... just for a start.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on August 31, 2020, 01:32:01 PM
.

I think Trump has honestly done the best job possible re: COVID, the herd immunity strategy we have implemented a la Sweden has been successful in most areas, and those with Democrat governors will be the last to return to normal because they no longer believe in science.

It is crazy how quickly the Democrats surpassed the Republicans as the party of pseudoscience and fascist bullshit.

All of this is just so totally at odds with Trump's record on not backing facemasks or social distancing, the ongoing death toll in the US that's significantly worse than what's going on in Canada, or Europe, his rambling on about injecting bleach, and talking about climate change as a Chinese hoax... just for a start.

The facemasks are effective at prevention if worn by enough people. And the type matters too.

I think you are regurgitating talking points here (bleach, Chinese hoax) and not looking at what has actually happened in the US. While NYC was horrific, the death toll nationally is still proportionately lower than the EU.

And, if vaccines are not widespread and VIABLE until spring, maximizing infections during summertime amongst those who do not care about being infected is the BEST way to ensure herd immunity and that the virus is limited come autumn, reducing overall mortality. Additionally, I do believe mortality is SEASONAL in COVID as well for a large component of the population as well, i.e., the more people infected in wintertime, the more will die proportionately, and not only that, but said burden puts an even larger strain on the hospital system which potentially results in even more deaths, as hospitalizations also increase dramatically.

I think your disconnect from the American people is evident in that you would base your vote on the response to a disease which has killed very few people overall, compared to the economic damage and political freedoms Democrats appear willing and able to remove and destroy with no regard to anyone's livelihoods. We still do not have indoor dining in NYC. I am guessing you would say this is a good thing and I am guessing that is why we are probably not going to agree on anything here !  :)

There is a very decent chance that come 11/1, EU and China / almost all of NHEM are in a major 2nd wave with NYC-Mexico City-esque death tolls. Some Democrat states will be too. But the majority of the US will be done with the virus, the strategy implemented in summertime will look like a great success, the economy will be roaring back to life, and he will be campaigning on re-opening EVERYWHERE nationally. He is honestly possibly going to win in the biggest victory since Reagan, IMO.

Can you imagine what Joe Biden will be doing during this time mentioned above? If he hasn't died by that point from COVID or a stroke? Will he be in public at all? Will he still retain his abilities of speech?

I think Joe Biden is a horrible candidate and that he is going to lose spectacularly. The writing is on the wall.

PS: I probably won't vote, I do think Trump is a bit better than Biden because my main issue is China / the CCP, and how we deal with them, and I think Trump has been very effective in that regard. I am hearing rumors that the CCP is looking to replace Xi and that there is impending internal strife in China. If the Three Gorges situation / etc worsens (and the Himalayan anomaly is once again relevant....) I could see major internal instability and / or governmental upheaval.

I would not want Biden to be in charge in such a situation, I think Trump would actually do a much better job of shaping a China beneficial to American interests than Biden, as he has already done (IMO).
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tony Mcleod on August 31, 2020, 02:07:14 PM
Trump is going to win in a blow-out. I could see even NY going for him. The Democrats are totally done on a local and national level. People cannot express support for him without an angry mob of PC fascists breaking down their door and coming for their employment. And Democrats wonder why they lose elections.

Not going to happen. "Angry mob" fearmongering is overblown. Plus the current aggro all happened under Trump's watch, so how is it Biden's fault? He wasn't the one stirring shit by teargassing peaceful protesters for a photo op etc.

EDIT: Ask yourself this. If significant riots were taking place towards the end of Obama's presidency and the situation was being more aggravated than resolved by his actions, would you give him a free pass? And did you blame /would you have blamed Trump for any events towards the end of Obama's presidency? It's possible your bias may be showing.

Yes, it happened under Trump's watch.  What could be blamed on him is the police killings and his lack of action towards them.  The angry mobs are leftist reactions to the situation.  It does not appear that bbr is blaming it on Biden.  Rather, it is part of the leftist mentality that anything rightist should be defeated, and violently if necessary.  That is the philosophy that is destroying the Democratic party and turning voters away.  Politics has gotten much more confrontational recently.

The sad truth is the US is so hopelessly divided that you could rewrite that paragraph switching left for right. Trump has been at the helm for years and is right now, so that is where the buck must stop. Irrespective of what Biden says or does, Trump does not have the inclination nor the capacity of acting like a wise, impartial and selfless statesman to begin healing the divisions but he actually stands to gain by fuelling further unrest, so a very unfortunate time ahead for our American friends.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 31, 2020, 03:44:16 PM
Here's one way to ensure a Biden win...kill all the Trump supporters:
“They Hunted Him Down”: Friend of Murdered Trump Supporter Speaks Out
https://summit.news/2020/08/31/they-hunted-him-down-friend-of-murdered-trump-supporter-speaks-out/
Quote
Bishop was shot dead on Saturday night in Portland. Video footage of the incident shows someone shouting “We’ve got a Trumper right here,” before another person responds “Right here?” before firing two shots.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on August 31, 2020, 04:26:32 PM
Trump is going to win in a blow-out. I could see even NY going for him. The Democrats are totally done on a local and national level. People cannot express support for him without an angry mob of PC fascists breaking down their door and coming for their employment. And Democrats wonder why they lose elections.

Not going to happen. "Angry mob" fearmongering is overblown. Plus the current aggro all happened under Trump's watch, so how is it Biden's fault? He wasn't the one stirring shit by teargassing peaceful protesters for a photo op etc.

EDIT: Ask yourself this. If significant riots were taking place towards the end of Obama's presidency and the situation was being more aggravated than resolved by his actions, would you give him a free pass? And did you blame /would you have blamed Trump for any events towards the end of Obama's presidency? It's possible your bias may be showing.

Yes, it happened under Trump's watch.  What could be blamed on him is the police killings and his lack of action towards them.  The angry mobs are leftist reactions to the situation.  It does not appear that bbr is blaming it on Biden.  Rather, it is part of the leftist mentality that anything rightist should be defeated, and violently if necessary.  That is the philosophy that is destroying the Democratic party and turning voters away.  Politics has gotten much more confrontational recently.

The sad truth is the US is so hopelessly divided that you could rewrite that paragraph switching left for right. Trump has been at the helm for years and is right now, so that is where the buck must stop. Irrespective of what Biden says or does, Trump does not have the inclination nor the capacity of acting like a wise, impartial and selfless statesman to begin healing the divisions but he actually stands to gain by fuelling further unrest, so a very unfortunate time ahead for our American friends.

There is a lot of truth in what you just said.  The situation is not new.  Occasionally, talking points like hard on crime or soft on crime emerge during an election, but little gets done.  Recent divisions in politics is not helping, and there is plenty of blame to go around.  Trump obviously has done little to combat the issue, but I am not sure Biden can do any better.  The issue was around during the Obama administration, and little has changed.  The underlying issue needs to be addresses, otherwise any action is just superficial.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Hefaistos on August 31, 2020, 11:55:59 PM

Spread betters now in favour of a Trump win.

Covid19 is now seemingly playing in Trump's favour.

Odds for D winning the Senate sharply down.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-08-31/election-prediction-markets-show-kenosha-is-helping-trump?srnd=premium&sref=fWXwYVpp
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on September 01, 2020, 08:49:45 PM
If you want to see why Trump is going to win, look at how harpy is behaving in the COVID thread. For 50%+ of the country, this election is harpy's position, vs. the old normal.

If you think a choice like that is not going to result in a Reagan-esque landslide... you are probably wrong. Harpy is literally attacking the entirety of my normal, everyday existence, and the sentiment among most people is that most Democrats support policies that would enable and embolden fascist-wannabes like Harpy to impose their will on all others.

The sad thing for Democrats is the media is almost entirely controlled by the Ds who have stooges with views like harpy on the networks / etc spewing fake propaganda.... the disconnect between "the media" and the public has never been larger, in fact I would guess COVID has largely resulted in the COLLAPSE of traditional major news outlets (mostly heavily tilted D) as studio coverage has splintered into Zoom sessions / etc undermining the last vestiges of "image" that separated the networks from the Youtubers etc. So there is this worsening disconnect between what "party loyalists" think public perception is re: COVID, and what the situation on the ground actually is in most areas.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: interstitial on September 01, 2020, 09:57:25 PM
I can't believe some people. All trump did was refuse to act and spent all of his time trying to blame others. He did not come up with a plan to do anything or a plan to make us reach heard immunity faster. He spent the whole time trying to cover his ass. What a great leader! He leads everyone in the blame game. I blame you, you and you. Its not my fault I blame you. Normally a crisis is a unifying factor but he used it to facilitate more division.  Replacing trump with a magic eight ball would be a huge improvement.


Biden is not a good choice but at least he is not trying to destroy US democracy. Trump is doing his best to dismantle all the checks on presidential power. If he gets enough of his sycophants in place it may not be possible to remove him.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sedziobs on September 01, 2020, 10:24:45 PM
Morning Consult released a slate of swing state polls conducted over the last 10 days. In parenthesis is the change since the last round of polls from two weeks prior (+Biden, -Trump). 

FL 2 (-3)
PA 4 (-2)
NC 2 (-1)
OH 5 (-1)
MN 7 (-1)
TX 1 (0)
CO 10 (0)
WI 9 (+3)
MI 10 (+4)
GA 3 (+4)
AZ 10 (+12)

If Biden takes the states where he leads by at least 7 (plus NV and NE2), he can afford to lose FL, PA, NC, and OH.
 
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on September 01, 2020, 10:59:26 PM
Morning Consult released a slate of swing state polls conducted over the last 10 days. In parenthesis is the change since the last round of polls from two weeks prior (+Biden, -Trump). 

FL 2 (-3)
PA 4 (-2)
NC 2 (-1)
OH 5 (-1)
MN 7 (-1)
TX 1 (0)
CO 10 (0)
WI 9 (+3)
MI 10 (+4)
GA 3 (+4)
AZ 10 (+12)

If Biden takes the states where he leads by at least 7 (plus NV and NE2), he can afford to lose FL, PA, NC, and OH.
 
Delusional

Like Hillary campaigning in GA and AZ

Why don't the Democrats ever learn....
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on September 01, 2020, 11:34:08 PM
Morning Consult released a slate of swing state polls conducted over the last 10 days. In parenthesis is the change since the last round of polls from two weeks prior (+Biden, -Trump). 

FL 2 (-3)
PA 4 (-2)
NC 2 (-1)
OH 5 (-1)
MN 7 (-1)
TX 1 (0)
CO 10 (0)
WI 9 (+3)
MI 10 (+4)
GA 3 (+4)
AZ 10 (+12)

If Biden takes the states where he leads by at least 7 (plus NV and NE2), he can afford to lose FL, PA, NC, and OH.
 
Delusional

Like Hillary campaigning in GA and AZ

Why don't the Democrats ever learn....

I wonder how many college football fans in those states are thinking of switching their vote.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/29787079/big-ten-commissioner-president-trump-talk-starting-college-football-season

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 02, 2020, 04:43:07 PM
Nancy Pelosi, Next President of the United States?
https://dailyreckoning.com/nancy-pelosi-next-president-of-the-united-states/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+dailyreckoning+%28The+Daily+Reckoning%29
Quote
But we might not know the actual outcome for days, weeks, or even months potentially…

Americans are already on guard that mail-in ballots, long lines at polling places, armies of lawyers and potential court orders could make this presidential election one of the most heavily contested and uncertain elections in our lifetimes.

It could be even more drawn-out and uncertain that the 2000 election between Bush and Gore, which was finally decided by the Supreme Court weeks after Election Day.

If you don’t think things can get even weirder and more uncertain than that, well, they can. I’m not predicting it’s going to happen, let me be clear, but we could even end up with President Pelosi. Here’s how:

The United States has a line-of-succession statute that dictates what happens if an election is undecided. The sitting President and Vice President leave office at noon on January 20, 2021 even if no winner has been decided.

Nancy Pelosi, President?
In that case, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi becomes Acting President. But, that assumes Pelosi is named Speaker. What if House seats are also undecided because of mail-in ballots, legal challenges and close elections?

If enough House seats are not decided, there may not be a quorum in the House, which means that there would be no Speaker at all and still no Acting President.

Let’s hope that none of this happens and the outcome is resolved quickly with a legitimate winner all can agree on. The social unrest we’re seeing today could be child’s play next to the kind of unrest we’d see during a disputed election.

But, given the looming uncertainty, it’s impossible to rule out this kind of chaotic scenario. And the way things have gone this year, with the pandemic and the social unrest, would it surprise you if it happened?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on September 02, 2020, 10:12:00 PM
Trump will roll out the vaccine 11/1. The optics enabling his victory have been set by the media trying to ensure his defeat. The moon-shot will be presented as a major success, USA #1 ahead of all other countries, and the people who have been craving a vaccine (a ton of Democrats // OLD PEOPLE WHO DO INDEED VOTE) will thank him with said votes.

The CDC said states need vaccine sites ready by 11/1 today, hence....^
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on September 03, 2020, 04:00:52 AM
That sounds exactly like something he would do.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Paddy on September 03, 2020, 05:05:31 AM
Trump will roll out the vaccine 11/1. The optics enabling his victory have been set by the media trying to ensure his defeat. The moon-shot will be presented as a major success, USA #1 ahead of all other countries, and the people who have been craving a vaccine (a ton of Democrats // OLD PEOPLE WHO DO INDEED VOTE) will thank him with said votes.

The CDC said states need vaccine sites ready by 11/1 today, hence....^

Or this could just be another backfiring project. There's no way testing will be done by then.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 03, 2020, 12:30:16 PM
Democratic Pollster Predicts a Huge Trump Win on Election Night — But Says Biden Will End Up Winning Within a Week
https://www.mediaite.com/news/democratic-pollster-predicts-a-huge-trump-win-on-election-night-but-says-biden-will-end-up-winning-within-a-week/
Quote
President Donald Trump is likely going to win big on election night — including in traditionally Democratic states, such as Minnesota and Virginia — but will lose the election a week later because of mail-in voting, according to a Democratic pollster.

My God, can you imagine the reaction of the right wing in this country if that happened?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Paddy on September 03, 2020, 01:05:04 PM
Meanwhile, Trump's encouraging people to try and vote twice, to check that the system is working. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/us/politics/trump-people-vote-twice.html

Without mentioning, of course, that voting twice is illegal.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on September 03, 2020, 01:40:41 PM
Trump will roll out the vaccine 11/1. The optics enabling his victory have been set by the media trying to ensure his defeat. The moon-shot will be presented as a major success, USA #1 ahead of all other countries, and the people who have been craving a vaccine (a ton of Democrats // OLD PEOPLE WHO DO INDEED VOTE) will thank him with said votes.

The CDC said states need vaccine sites ready by 11/1 today, hence....^

Or this could just be another backfiring project. There's no way testing will be done by then.
The left is dying for a vaccine and wants to implement it universally. Can you imagine the Democrats suddenly turning antivax when one is produced. lol. Even if it is fake the optics will play horribly. The same fake vaccines will be rolling out globally by November btw, so that will further legitimize "the fix".
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on September 03, 2020, 02:51:05 PM
Meanwhile, Trump's encouraging people to try and vote twice, to check that the system is working. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/us/politics/trump-people-vote-twice.html

Without mentioning, of course, that voting twice is illegal.

Not exactly.  Rather, it was a way to ensure that their vote counts.  If their absentee ballot was tabulated, then they would be refused at the polls.  If not, then they would be allowed to vote.  Either way, they are only voting once.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on September 03, 2020, 03:26:42 PM
NY Times says vaccine is coming. If the NYT is saying this and implicitly implying Trump is to credit, the swing nationally this election could be the largest since Reagan, IMO.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/health/covid-19-vaccine-cdc-plans.html?

So, let's go through the pluses and minuses re: the average American voter this election.

Trump:

Saved stock market and overall economy through swift FED action
Backed national effort that produced vaccine
Stands up to China, which has now directly attacked the US re: possible biological weapon
Supports police and law and order and stands against rioting and looting
Most environmentally friendly president in US history, largest emissions decrease on record!

Biden:

Somewhere in a bunker
Senile
Hiding from virus
Killed old people by saying Hydroxychloroquine didn't work, poo-poo'd all other palliative care etc proposed by POTUS
Head of a party that hates police,
Picks prosecutor as VP
Head of a party that has imposed unconstitutional lockdowns at state level


If I was going to vote I would pick the former not the latter.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on September 04, 2020, 02:16:23 AM
WTF? I just turned off my music and put on MSNBC, and the chiron on MSNBC says that Trump said that people who died in wars are all ‘Losers’ and ‘Suckers’? Is this real? McCain wasn't a war hero either, right?

Trump's feelings must be hurt because of polling and a few commercials that the military is against him now...  ;D ;D ;D ;D

https://youtu.be/hQVLY8ME-Kg (https://youtu.be/hQVLY8ME-Kg)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on September 04, 2020, 02:44:56 AM
In a conversation with senior staff members on the morning of the scheduled visit, Trump said, “Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers.” In a separate conversation on the same trip, Trump referred to the more than 1,800 marines who lost their lives at Belleau Wood as “suckers” for getting killed.

When McCain died, in August 2018, Trump told his senior staff, according to three sources with direct knowledge of this event, “We’re not going to support that loser’s funeral,” and he became furious, according to witnesses, when he saw flags lowered to half-staff. “What the fuck are we doing that for? Guy was a fucking loser,” the president told aides.

 ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/09/trump-americans-who-died-at-war-are-losers-and-suckers/615997/
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on September 04, 2020, 04:23:15 AM
It's been said many times before, but calling dead American soldiers losers because they died fighting for their country? Is this the line he shouldn't have crossed?

Is Trump finally done?

(https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Bxa1R6QHP-0/VwLBVPx7X8I/AAAAAAAASHA/QEsq2QZdvBMBDj6HUHV8Av_k1f537_THw/s1600/12932856_833058273465306_8430423792606709380_n.jpg)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: oren on September 04, 2020, 05:34:42 AM
Is this the line he shouldn't have crossed? YES.

Is Trump finally done? NO.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 04, 2020, 01:04:05 PM
Why We Are Facing The Biggest Election Nightmare In Modern American History No Matter Who Ends Up Winning
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/why-we-are-facing-the-biggest-election-nightmare-in-modern-american-history-no-matter-who-ends-up-winning
Quote
Right now, Trump and his supporters are convinced that Trump will win, and Biden and his supporters are convinced that Biden will win.

One side is going to be bitterly, bitterly disappointed, and they will almost certainly feel like the election was not won legitimately.

There is going to be so much anger, and when it explodes it is going to be very frightening to watch.

This is already such a dark chapter in American history, and this election is going to take things to an entirely new level.

Sadly, I believe that after November 2020 nothing in this country will ever be the same again.
People, I know Mike Snyder is not the most reliable source, but even a broken clock is right twice a day, and I am very afraid this is one of those two times.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on September 05, 2020, 08:28:36 AM
Now this is interesting: Suffolk U/USAtoday nationwide 1000 person poll sep 4

"If your candidate for president is NOT elected in November are you prepared to accept the outcome of the election as being fair and accurate?"

Republicans: 61/317 ~ 0.2
Democrats: 101/345 ~ 0.3

So one in three democrats wont believe Biden lost and one in five republicans wont believe Trump lost.

"Are you voting FOR your candidate or AGAINST his opponent?"

Republicans against Biden: 29/305 ~0.1
Democrats against Trump: 98/340 ~ 0.3

A third of the democrat Biden voters are voting against Trump,  a tenth of the republican Trump voters are voting against Biden

Trump has 42% of the voters and Biden has 47%. 

Now if you ask em who they think will be elected: 44% think Trump will be elected and 41% Biden.

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2020/9_4_2020_marginals_pdftxt_1.pdf?la=en&hash=82A2943123B520436F4F868C495DD85EA5CDE588

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2020/9_4_2020_tables_pdftxt_1.pdf?la=en&hash=D3CA68E8C4C8511FBE7BE4A26D60C717C859A38B

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 05, 2020, 03:58:13 PM
Quote
"If your candidate for president is NOT elected in November are you prepared to accept the outcome of the election as being fair and accurate?"

Republicans: 61/317 ~ 0.2
Democrats: 101/345 ~ 0.3

So one in three democrats wont believe Biden lost and one in five republicans wont believe Trump lost.
As I read this, two in three democrats wont believe Biden lost and four in five republicans wont believe Trump lost.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on September 06, 2020, 12:26:28 AM
No. Two in three democrats and four in five republicans  would believe "the outcome of the election was "fair and accurate" " even if their candidate lost.

The whole survey is interesting. I quoted only a few of the results, please see the original.

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 06, 2020, 12:48:26 AM
Even so, I believe that is a historically high level of disbelief.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on September 06, 2020, 06:09:39 AM
Oh, i dont know. A surprising number of the people i know who dont vote hold the belief that the elections are rigged, and who can blame em after 2000 ? The rest seem to hold that voting doesnt matter because all politicians are crooks, and i really won't blame them either.

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on September 07, 2020, 07:34:46 AM
Otterbein at politico: Pennsylvania got work to do

"Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf privately convened a group of Philadelphia Democrats recently to underscore the consequences of another vote-counting fiasco like the one that took place in the June primary."

"The city took more than two weeks to count all of its votes due to a massive surge in mail voting amid the coronavirus pandemic — and a repeat performance might make it unclear who won the presidential election"

" accentuated the fears that state Democrats have of the nation being forced to wait on Pennsylvania to call the election"

" a “red mirage”: It could appear as if Trump is leading on Election Night even if he lost because Republicans are more likely to vote in person than Democrats. "

“Can you imagine if we’re waiting on Pennsylvania and there’s still 300,000 uncounted votes in Philadelphia? Can you even imagine?”

"Election administrators in the city have said they were understaffed, underfunded, and lacking state-of-the-art equipment. "

"The GOP legislation would allow election officials to start opening mail ballots three days before Election Day. But Wolf opposes the legislation because it would limit the amount of time voters have to request the ballots."

" “Even with all that equipment, with nearly 400,000 ballots that we expect to receive, it's physically impossible that they will all be opened and scanned before the polls close on Election Day,” said Deeley. “The new reality is winners and losers are not going to be known at the end of the night.” "

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/03/pennsylvania-democrats-election-day-408147

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 18, 2020, 01:33:43 PM
Krystal Ball: Can America SURVIVE Election Day?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0gN_oRVya0

I think the word they are groping for in this video is "No.".
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on September 18, 2020, 08:46:19 PM
Trump Ad Asks People to Support the Troops. But It Uses a Picture of Russian Jets and Russian Troops.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/14/trump-ad-asks-people-to-support-the-troops-but-it-uses-a-picture-of-russian-jets-414883

(https://static.politico.com/dims4/default/88272bf/2147483647/resize/463x/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2F29%2F57%2Ff565fbc34594a6ec79b4e84f7112%2Fad.JPG)

The ad, which was made by the Trump Make America Great Again Committee, features silhouettes of three soldiers walking as a fighter jet flies over them. The ad first appeared on Sept. 8 and ran until Sept. 12.

“That’s definitely a MiG-29,” said Pierre Sprey, who helped design both the F-16 and A-10 planes for the U.S. Air Force. “I’m glad to see it’s supporting our troops.”

He noted the angle of the aircraft’s tail, the way the tail is swept far back, and the spacing of the engines, along with the tunnel between them.

Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies in Moscow, confirmed that the planes are Russian MiG-29s, and also said the soldier on the far right in the ad carries an AK-74 assault rifle.

The Trump Make America Great Again Committee is run by both the Republican National Committee and the campaign.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on September 19, 2020, 02:01:23 AM
US Supreme Court: Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg has died.
https://mobile.twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1307100704935424002
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ktb on September 19, 2020, 03:20:42 AM
Will McConnell have a new SC appointment ready by Monday? 2020 has been soul crushing
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on September 19, 2020, 06:25:34 AM
The question is--will it galvanize the 'left' even more than it does the 'right'?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 19, 2020, 12:28:11 PM
Will McConnell have a new SC appointment ready by Monday? 2020 has been soul crushing
If so, won't they just say we should wait until after the election, like they did when Scalia died in 2016 iirc?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ktb on September 19, 2020, 12:52:38 PM
If so, won't they just say we should wait until after the election, like they did when Scalia died in 2016 iirc?

And unsurprisingly the answer is no.

McConnell: Trump's Nominee To Replace Ginsburg Will Receive A Vote In The Senate

https://www.npr.org/sections/death-of-ruth-bader-ginsburg/2020/09/18/914650878/mcconnell-trumps-nominee-to-replace-ginsburg-will-receive-a-vote-in-the-senate?utm_medium=social&utm_term=nprnews&utm_campaign=politics&utm_source=facebook.com&fbclid=IwAR2HMr4Zgw-F37bbUH84Je3HqYUSH4nHZU-uz5DShA-ZUdQv06Oy8nAjHcQ
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 19, 2020, 12:59:22 PM
I thought the Dems in the Senate would filibuster (or whatever you call it) like the GOP did last time.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ktb on September 19, 2020, 01:18:38 PM
They don't have the numbers to filibuster. Judicial votes need only 51 to pass (or 50-50 tie with Pence as the tiebreaker). Currently senate is 53-47 in favor of republicans. Need 4 to break party lines, if 3 or less Pence will tiebreak.
Also, McConnell can bring any vote to the senate floor that he wants at any time. Even if it would fail 1-99 he could still say he wants to hold a vote on it. It would just get filibustered and they would move on. So McConnell has the power to bring the SC nomination vote to the senate floor whenever, only needs 50 votes to pass it.

So far we have Murkowski (R-AK) who said she would vote no as recently as this Friday; Susan Collins (R-ME) claims it is "too close" to election day to hold a vote. https://edition.cnn.com/us/live-news/ruth-bader-ginsburg-death-live-updates/h_73403b4eaf42724ec9db79154591d223

Lindsay Graham (R-SC) in 2016 AND 2018 said that he would vote no if this scenario occurred. He has since walked that back. https://twitter.com/RiegerReport/status/1307145653856985089

Chuck Grassley (R-IA) seems to be considering voting no. At the very least he is recommending against holding a vote. That does not mean that if a vote is held, he would say no. https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2020/09/18/how-ernst-grassley-said-they-would-handle-supreme-court-vacancy/5831959002/

Mitt Romney (R-UT). Will the man who seems to have broken with republicans do it again? So far only a tweet stating that a "high level Romney insider says Romney will vote no." https://twitter.com/JimDabakis/status/1307120855454044160
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ktb on September 19, 2020, 02:41:20 PM
And from ABC news:

Donald Trump to put forth nominee to replace Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in coming days: Sources

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/donald-trump-put-nominee-replace-justice-ruth-bader/story?id=73107862&__twitter_impression=true

Anybody surprised by this shit hasn’t been watching. Anybody voting for a Republican is supporting fascism.



The correct term for Nazi sympathizer is nazi.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on September 19, 2020, 04:23:27 PM
And from ABC news:

Donald Trump to put forth nominee to replace Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in coming days: Sources

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/donald-trump-put-nominee-replace-justice-ruth-bader/story?id=73107862&__twitter_impression=true

Anybody surprised by this shit hasn’t been watching. Anybody voting for a Republican is supporting fascism.



The correct term for Nazi sympathizer is nazi.

Are you insane? The Democrats are encouraging riots in the streets, have shutdown all local businesses, and are willing to do it again if they haven't stopped it already. All while favoring AMZN, NYT, etc. By definition they are consolidating the state and corporations into a few behemoths a la Mercedes-Benz and BMW during the rise of the Nazis in Germany.

And they have armies of stooges like you, and vox_mundi, who repost propaganda from the WaPo (AMZN) and NYT (NYT) as if it had factual value and weren't designed to bolster the bottom lines of aforementioned FascistCorps which also have deep ties to the military-industrial complex (especially NBC and its affiliate networks).

Proposing a new Supreme Court justice is not a "Nazi" move and pretending like a Democrat would not do the same if they had a favorable Senate is to be blithely ignorant. Many American Democrats are useful idiots and have willingly demonstrated their tendencies towards banal evil in the wake of the manufactured pandemic restrictions. Hannah Arendt would be horrified.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ktb on September 19, 2020, 05:11:32 PM
Are you insane?

Sure, if that's what you need me to be.

The Democrats are encouraging riots in the streets,

No

have shutdown all local businesses,

No

and are willing to do it again if they haven't stopped it already.


2nd shutdown may occur. No arguments there.

All while favoring AMZN, NYT, etc.

Posturing. I wouldn't say they are favoring Amazon. Dems want higher taxes on ultra wealthy and corporations. Sanders (independent but I digress) wants to break up banks and prevent monopolies.

By definition they are consolidating the state and corporations into a few behemoths a la Mercedes-Benz and BMW during the rise of the Nazis in Germany.

Amazon should be broken up. Mega corps should be broken up. Authoritarian Right leaders (term used in the context of Bob Altemeyer's The Authoritarians) are not the ones to do so.

And they have armies of stooges like you, and vox_mundi,

Baseless attack. Happy to be called a stooge, if it makes you feel strong. King stooge even.

who repost propaganda from the WaPo (AMZN) and NYT (NYT) as if it had factual value and weren't designed to bolster the bottom lines of aforementioned FascistCorps which also have deep ties to the military-industrial complex (especially NBC and its affiliate networks).

My post was from ABC which is owned by Disney FascistCorpsTM.

Proposing a new Supreme Court justice is not a "Nazi" move

Never said it was. Perhaps I should have placed that in a comment section of its' own. Do you disagree with the statement that a nazi sympathizer should be called a nazi?

and pretending like a Democrat would not do the same if they had a favorable Senate is to be blithely ignorant.

You Go High, We Go Low! - Republican Mantra circa creation of modern political parties.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAbab8aP4_A&list=PLJA_jUddXvY7v0VkYRbANnTnzkA_HMFtQ&index=9&t=0s

Many American Democrats are useful idiots and have willingly demonstrated their tendencies towards banal evil in the wake of the manufactured pandemic restrictions. Hannah Arendt would be horrified.

Press X to doubt. Although that was after only a brief rifling through of her wikipedia page. I'd be happy to read some of her books, appears to be up my alley anyway.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ktb on September 19, 2020, 05:17:09 PM
And finally, if you have had any doubts that Trump would be attempting to use the Supreme Court to keep himself in power, you have been duped. Horrendously so.

He is drooling at this. 3 SC appointments in the first term? That's a unicorn. 6-3 conservative loaded court. The next oldest justice, Breyer, was appointed by Clinton. Another 4 years of Trump makes a high likelihood of a 7-2 swing.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on September 19, 2020, 06:51:01 PM
Are you insane?

Sure, if that's what you need me to be.
DIS is fascist. LOL. You are blind.

DIS is a company that pumps out propaganda designed to brainwash and commercialize children. Ensuring they are watching screens as long as possible and literally draining their lives via thoughtless content that simultaneously encourages them to spend $, dress and think XYZ ways, etc.

Because they have amusement parks you would say "oh, BBR2315, you are but a grinch!". I would say, you are ignorant. And to act as if I am the silly one by saying "oh ABC owned by DIS which is totally a nice company and LOL they have stuffed animals and you are totes dumb" in as many words is equally eye-opening as it shows you are also brainwashed.

I hope your stupor is enjoyable, at the very least!  :)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on September 19, 2020, 07:50:55 PM
The question is--will it galvanize the 'left' even more than it does the 'right'?

Hard to say.  This has typically been a larger issue for conservatives.  This was a bigger issue for the right in 2016, with the fear of tipping the court further left should Clinton win.  The court will shift further right no matter who nominates the next justice - it is just a matter of how much.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on September 19, 2020, 07:57:03 PM
And from ABC news:

Donald Trump to put forth nominee to replace Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in coming days: Sources

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/donald-trump-put-nominee-replace-justice-ruth-bader/story?id=73107862&__twitter_impression=true

Anybody surprised by this shit hasn’t been watching. Anybody voting for a Republican is supporting fascism.



The correct term for Nazi sympathizer is nazi.

Why should anybody be surprised.  The Democrats would do the same.  Both parties have done so in the past, with 2016 being the sole exception to confirmation.  No previous president has ever declined to nominate a judge to the supreme court just because it was a election year.  This is not fascism, but democracy.  This is how it works.  The Republicans should not have blocked the nomination in 2016, and the Democrats should not block this one.  If you want to prove yourself to above your opponent, then do not act like them.  Otherwise the cartoon posted by Ktb should read, "when you go low, we follow you down."
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ktb on September 19, 2020, 10:21:44 PM
While I would say that Disney is much too large (Especially!!! after buying Fox), that does not make them fascist.

Pumping out propaganda? I'll give that a soft yes. The US government provides money for films that make the US military look good. That is propaganda. Making a princess movie that children enjoy is not propaganda.

Disney famously underpays their workers at amusement parks. That is messed up. I think those workers should unionize. I do not think Disney is a "nice company" (your quotes not mine). I think they should likely be split. I encourage it.

Your "quotes" of me seem to be wildly off. Please refrain from putting words in my mouth. Additionally, thanks for hyper-focusing on one small aspect of everything I bothered to respond to you about. And finally, I have (once again) refrained from insulting you in my posts. I ask that you do the same.

Yes my stupor, quite enjoyable with some soma!
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: interstitial on September 19, 2020, 11:39:44 PM
Both democrats and republicans do the bidding of the uber rich. The concentration of wealth has continued unabated during both parties control.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 20, 2020, 12:33:14 PM
You know, all year I have had a slide rule (back from pre-calculator days) with the cursor slowly millimetering along to show how many months were left till the election. I have the weeks counted off on my calendar. The reason I was doing this was because I looked forward to hearing the results. Whichever one won, I "knew" that, on November 4 I would at least know the winner and what the next four years would be like. Now it looks like I won't know November 5, and may not know in November at all.
In 2001 the World Almanac and Book of Facts published two presidential biographies because, at press time, they did not know if Bush or Gore had won. Something like that may happen in the 2021 edition.
Sigh.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ktb on September 20, 2020, 12:44:12 PM
Trump wins election night, Biden wins in the following days/weeks as mail in voting is tabulated.

Although some fuckery may occur with trump trying to persuade the Supreme Court to halt mailed in ballot counting.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ktb on September 20, 2020, 01:05:51 PM
And so it begins.

Trump Supporters Block Voting Site in Virginia

https://hillreporter.com/trump-supporters-block-voting-site-in-virginia-79415

It has begun; In Virginia, MAGA supporters block a voting entrance and then stay within 40 ft

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/9/19/1978861/-It-has-begun-In-Virginia-MAGA-supporters-block-a-voting-entrance-and-then-stay-withing-40-ft

https://www.axios.com/trump-supporters-rally-virginia-polling-place-14e62bd6-2769-4b5e-9fdf-d4c8f9078394.html

https://bluevirginia.us/2020/09/fairfax-county-democratic-committee-chair-republicans-are-straight-up-attempting-to-intimidate-voters-circling-the-parking-lots-with-their-trump-flags-and-horns-blaring

FASCISM (although clearly some refuse to admit it) is continuing to rear its head. Citizens disenfranchising other citizens. Disgusting.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 20, 2020, 01:36:48 PM
Quote
Although some fuckery may occur with trump trying to persuade the Supreme Court to halt mailed in ballot counting.
What do you think would happen if he did this, Ktb?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ktb on September 20, 2020, 05:46:33 PM
I guess it depends if he succeeds with that approach or not.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 20, 2020, 11:02:42 PM
I wouldn't have thought an Icy Seas (https://icyseas.org/) post would belong here, but it definitely does!

Election Work during a Pandemic (https://icyseas.org/2020/09/17/election-work-during-a-pandemic/)
Posted on September 17, 2020 by Andreas Muenchow

Quote
...I did not [know how elections actually worked] and thus decided to learn. I served as a sworn-in Election Clerk in the State of Delaware this week to collect first-hand experiences. I wanted to decide for myself rather than just “believe” or “dismiss” abundant disinformation propagated by Russian and American troll farms on social media. I wanted to answer for myself, if the American election system is safe, fair, and secure. My answer is a resounding yes for New Castle County, Delaware.
...
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 21, 2020, 04:20:52 AM
Seth Abramson recently posted the attached list of nine steps that he believes that Donald Trump is planning on to steal the 2020 presidential (& VP) election by claiming fraudulent voting to pressure GOP state official to block otherwise valid electors so that no one gets 270 votes in the electoral college vote thus forcing a contingent election as described in the linked Wikipedia article.  As the voting to determine the next president would be determined in the House of Representatives with each House state delegation casting a single vote; which implies that they would elect Donald Trump as there are more GOP House state delegations than there are Democrat House state delegations.  Furthermore, Seth Abramson believes that the best way to stop Trump's Plan is to expose it as widely as possible so that at least one step of his plan is prevented and Seth suggests that Step 7 "Use GOP official to block electors" is the best place for the public to pressure state officials not to follow Trump's plan to block otherwise valid electors.

Spread the word.

Title: "Contingent election"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_election

Extract: "In the United States, a contingent election is the procedure used in presidential elections in the event that no candidate wins an absolute majority of votes in the Electoral College, the constitutional mechanism for electing the president and the vice president of the United States. A contingent election for the president is decided by a vote of the United States House of Representatives, and the contingent election for the vice president is decided by a vote of the United States Senate.

The contingent election procedure, along with the other parts of the presidential election process, was first established in Article Two, Section 1, Clause 3 of the United States Constitution, and then modified by the 12th Amendment in 1804. During a contingent election, each House state delegation casts one en bloc vote to determine the president, rather than a vote for each representative. Senators instead cast votes individually for vice president.

All three contingent elections in the 1800s were held by the outgoing Congress, as, at the time, congressional terms ended/began on the same day as presidential terms. In the event of a future Electoral College deadlock regarding either the presidential election or the vice presidential election, it will be the incoming Congress holding a contingent election. This is because the 1933 20th Amendment changed it so that congressional terms now end/begin before presidential and vice presidential terms do."
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: interstitial on September 21, 2020, 08:53:56 PM
oranges first step is to accuse others of the crime he is about to commit. He has used this plan repeatedly to commit crime.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on September 22, 2020, 01:35:35 AM
Justice Department Deems New York City, Portland and Seattle 'Anarchist Jurisdictions'; Threatens Funding
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1240600

The Justice Department released a list of cities Monday that it has deemed "anarchist jurisdictions" under President Donald Trump's instructions this month to review federal funding for local governments in places where violence or vandalism has occurred during protests.

That memo directed Attorney General William Barr, in consultation with Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought and acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf, to identify jurisdictions "that have permitted violence and the destruction of property to persist and have refused to undertake reasonable measures to counteract these criminal activities (anarchist jurisdictions)."

On Monday, the Justice Department labeled New York City, Portland, Oregon, and Seattle as such areas. It said it was still working to identify other jurisdictions that meet the criteria outlined in Trump's memo. The president has made ridicule of those cities a regular feature of his campaign appearances, and he has mocked their top officials for their responses to the violence that has taken place during the protests.

New York Attorney General Letitia James said in a statement Monday that Trump is "using the last few months of his presidency to sow more chaos, more hatred, and more fear," ... "This designation is nothing more than a pathetic attempt to scare Americans into voting for a commander-in-chief who is actually incapable of commanding our nation," she said, adding that Trump "should be prepared to defend this illegal order in court, which hypocritically lays the groundwork to defund New York and the very types of law enforcement President Trump pretends to care about."

(https://blogforarizona.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Cartoon_62.jpg)

(https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/1263af9/2147483647/strip/true/crop/2048x1152+0+0/resize/1486x836!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F16%2F3e%2Facd8be333eac14a6e66bf3e3e039%2Fla-1502956331-ed89k0jddi-snap-image)

-------------------------------------

What's next? NYC designated as a Democratic 'ghetto? Will they need a Blauschein (blue cards)  to show that someone is an “essential worker?”

... Sie müssen jetzt die Schlange verlassen... dann bekommen Sie eine blaue Karte, den Blauschein... der Sie als unverzichtbare Arbeitskraft ausweist
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 22, 2020, 11:57:38 AM
Mike Snyder is Right Wing so I know he is like the skunk at the picnic here, but his latest blog post brings up so many clouds over the election I didn't know it is scary, and I was already expecting a mess this November. Pennsylvania might throw out 100,000 ballots unopened and allow voting till the Friday after the election. There are other things in this post that worry me. He has links to where he gets this information, so it is not just him making stuff up. See here:

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/an-obscure-law-in-pennsylvania-could-result-in-100000-mail-in-ballots-being-thrown-out-without-ever-being-counted
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: SteveMDFP on September 22, 2020, 02:11:08 PM
Mike Snyder is Right Wing so I know he is like the skunk at the picnic here, but his latest blog post brings up so many clouds over the election I didn't know it is scary, and I was already expecting a mess this November. Pennsylvania might throw out 100,000 ballots unopened and allow voting till the Friday after the election. There are other things in this post that worry me. He has links to where he gets this information, so it is not just him making stuff up. See here:

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/an-obscure-law-in-pennsylvania-could-result-in-100000-mail-in-ballots-being-thrown-out-without-ever-being-counted

A load of nonsense in this fear-mongering click-bait.  Items postmarked by the due date are considered timely submissions to the government, as with tax returns.  So it should be with ballots.  A reasonable deadline for receipt, say 3 days or so, is a practical necessity for timely  reporting of results.

Ballots are sent out with security envelopes.  The signature goes on the return envelope, often with a bar code for tracking.  If someone uses their own envelope, these security measures are gone, and the ballot cannot be assured of being genuine.  Of course it should be discarded.

We won't be assured of the election outcome on election night.  So what?  For most of US history, results weren't known for weeks.  That's exactly why we vote in November, but the winner takes office in January.  This never caused the Republic to fall before, so why should it now?  Where's the problem?

Don't fall for click-bait.  There are reasons why fringe authors remain on the fringe.  They're following a basic business model to keep their revenues up.  We don't have to buy what they're selling.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 22, 2020, 02:30:09 PM
My understanding of the article was that the votes could be mailed until Friday. Is that incorrect?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: SteveMDFP on September 22, 2020, 02:43:45 PM
My understanding of the article was that the votes could be mailed until Friday. Is that incorrect?

The author didn't clarify that, did he?  You suppose there's a reason he left that ambiguous, even misleading?  Better to gather clicks and readers.  Got to make people worried.  That's where the money's made, for a poor writer who can't find an actual job.

Why read these mercenary authors?  Why muck up this forum with their excrement?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 22, 2020, 03:44:28 PM
I was in a rush, I admit.
He explicitly said you could mail your vote after Tuesday, which is what really worried me. The link does not say that when I looked (it doesn't say otherwise, it is what is "ambiguous", not Snyder).
I will try to comment on the site again, I don't know if he will post it. I gave him another chance and I'm sorry I did.

EDIT: It shows how pessimal politics is in 2020 USA that I was willing to believe this. Here is the comment I tried to post:
Quote
I posted a link to this on another forum, and they pointed out Pennsylvania is allowing the votes to be received three days after Election day, NOT postmarked.
This is the Second Time I was called out on this forum for linking to you. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. This is too egregious for a mistake.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on September 22, 2020, 04:39:41 PM
Tom,

Yes, many states are availing ballots to be counted as long as they are postmarked by election day.  Pennsylvania is the center of a court case over a proposal to allow unsigned and spoiled ballots to be counted.  Each side is trying to manipulate the system to give them a competitive advantage come November.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on September 22, 2020, 10:37:41 PM
America's Finest News Source: Biden unleashes ground game

"ramped up his in-person efforts to get out the vote, members of the Joe Biden campaign reportedly went door-to-door Tuesday "

"Door-knocking is a core part of talking to supporters and getting our message out there"

"We explain to every potential supporter what a great candidate Biden is and how his vision for the country will make their lives better. We hope to get a commitment to vote, of course, but a little donation doesn’t hurt either"

"A lot of these people were Hillary [Clinton] supporters in 2016, but we’re not taking anything for granted"

https://politics.theonion.com/biden-campaigns-door-to-door-in-jpmorgan-chase-headquar-1845109310

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on September 23, 2020, 09:48:02 PM
(https://morningstaronline.co.uk/sites/default/files/styles/article_full/public/trump_drumpff.jpg?itok=-tefBdiF)

A jarring new report from The Atlantic claims that the Trump campaign is discussing potential strategies to circumvent the results of the 2020 election, should Joe Biden defeat Donald Trump, by first alleging the existence of rampant fraud and then appointing electors in battleground states where Republicans maintain a legislative majority, whom Trump would ask to bypass the state’s popular vote and instead to choose electors loyal to the GOP and the sitting president.

Following the casting of ballots and counting individual votes in a presidential election, the United States Constitution prescribes that the 538 electors who constitute the Electoral College cast their electoral votes, determining the winner.

Customarily, electors are chosen by popular vote, but nothing in the Constitution mandates that tradition, with Article II, Section 1, Clause 2 merely asserting that each state shall appoint electors “in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct.”

Since the late 1800s, every state in every presidential election has ceded the decision to its voters, but the Supreme Court affirmed in Bush v. Gore that a state “can take back the power to appoint electors.”

The Atlantic report claims that sources in the Republican Party at the local and national levels confirm “the Trump campaign is discussing contingency plans to bypass election results and appoint loyal electors” in red battleground states.

“The push to appoint electors would be framed in terms of protecting the people’s will,” an unnamed Trump-campaign legal adviser tells The Atlantic, adding, “The state legislatures will say, ‘All right, we’ve been given this constitutional power. We don’t think the results of our own state are accurate, so here’s our slate of electors that we think properly reflect the results of our state.’”

The chairman of the Pennsylvania Republican Party says, on the record, that he has discussed appointing loyal electors with the Trump campaign: “It is one of the available legal options set forth in the Constitution.”

A critical factor in the Trump campaign’s approach is delegitimizing mail-in and provisional ballots and any other votes that are not counted by the end of Election Day, Nov. 3rd, as those other votes are expected to heavily favor Biden.

Earlier this summer, Trump tweeted, “MAIL-IN VOTING WILL LEAD TO MASSIVE FRAUD AND ABUSE. IT WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE END OF OUR GREAT REPUBLICAN PARTY. WE CAN NEVER LET THIS TRAGEDY BEFALL OUR NATION.” Later, in a Twitter post in July, Trump wrote, “With Universal Mail-In Voting, 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Election in history.” However, due to the coronavirus pandemic, 2020 will feature more voting by mail than any other election in history.

Earlier this week, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said he plans to spend the next six weeks urging the country to prepare for a “nightmare scenario” in which Trump declares himself the winner of the election and refuses to leave the White House. Thus, Sanders recommends states tally mail-in ballots as quickly as possible, urging them to begin processing and counting ballots before Election Day.

When The Atlantic asked the Trump campaign to comment on the quotes in the article, and about possible plans to take the unprecedented step of appointing loyal electors, the president’s deputy national press secretary, Thea McDonald, did not address the questions directly. “It’s outrageous that President Trump and his team are being villainized for upholding the rule of law and transparently fighting for a free and fair election,” McDonald said in an email. “The mainstream media are giving the Democrats a free pass for their attempts to completely uproot the system and throw our election into chaos."

When asked by Fox News’ Chris Wallace earlier this summer if he would accept the election results, President Trump said, “I have to see. Look, you — I have to see. No, I’m not going to just say yes. I’m not going to say no, and I didn’t last time, either.”

An investigation by Justin Levitt at Loyola Law School uncovered a total of 31 credible allegations of voter impersonation out of more than 1 billion votes cast in the United States from 2000 to 2014.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/09/23/report-trump-campaign-actively-discussing-radical-measures-to-bypass-election-results/amp/

(https://images.theweek.com/sites/default/files/tt200923.jpg)

----------------------------

... excuse me, I need to sight in the AR-15
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on September 23, 2020, 09:49:39 PM
The Atlantic is fake news.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: interstitial on September 23, 2020, 10:48:34 PM
The Atlantic is fake news.

and yet he has repeatedly ignored any information that does not support his agenda. People did not attack him and say he wants to subvert the election process. Orange started things by indicating he may ignore the election process. Then people started looking into the issue and finding how he might do that. If the vote does not go his way he will claim fraud and try to stay in power. He has already telegraphed his intentions by saying how much he admires all the dictators around the world. He hasn't hidden his ambitions at all. He should scare republicans as much as democrats his ego is more important to him than any agenda. He will replace any decenters with yes men. He has already indicated he wants to rewrite history. That new history will include how the great orange saved us from all the evil in the world. The really shocking part to me is how few people seem to see this. This is not hyperbole this will happen if he is not stopped.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on September 23, 2020, 10:58:55 PM
Otterbein and Cassella at politico: Union's split on Biden

"Labor leaders have worked for months to sell their members on Biden, hoping to avoid a repeat of 2016 when Donald Trump outperformed among union members and won the White House. But despite a bevy of national union endorsements for Biden and years of what leaders call attacks on organized labor from the Trump administration, local officials in critical battleground states said support for Trump remains solid."

"“We haven’t moved the needle here,” said Mike Knisley, executive secretary-treasurer with the Ohio State Building and Construction Trades Council, who estimated that about half of his members voted for Trump in 2016 and will do so again. “Even if given all the information that’s been put out there, all the facts — just pick an issue that the president has had his hands in — it doesn’t make a difference.” "

"Those voters, historically a bedrock of Democratic support, shifted away from the party in 2016, according to exit polls. Hillary Clinton won union voters by less than half as much as former President Barack Obama had four years earlier — and that swing alone may have been enough to account for her losses in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan"

"there is cause for hope for Biden: While many Trump voters remain firm in their support, they said, Biden is winning over more of their members than Clinton did."

"union leaders said they fear there’s nothing they can say to the Trump supporters among their ranks to sway their opinion between now and November. "

" within more liberal unions, especially those with large numbers of Black and Latino members, leaders report major excitement for Biden ... Public-sector unions in major cities likewise tend to be a font of Democratic support."

"Mary Kay Henry, president of the Service Employees International Union, said 70 percent of her rank-and-file members backed Clinton. This year, she said, at least 80 percent are supporting Biden."

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/22/donald-trump-union-support-snub-joe-biden-418329

I watched the Democrats lose the unions in 2016 across the Midwest. I have a feeling they won't get too many union votes back this time. But what do I know ...

sidd

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 24, 2020, 03:48:40 AM
Trump will not commit to a peaceful transition of power and the linked article provides background on this matter:

Title: "The Election That Could Break America"

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/

Extract: "Trump’s state and national legal teams are already laying the groundwork for postelection maneuvers that would circumvent the results of the vote count in battleground states. Ambiguities in the Constitution and logic bombs in the Electoral Count Act make it possible to extend the dispute all the way to Inauguration Day, which would bring the nation to a precipice. The Twentieth Amendment is crystal clear that the president’s term in office “shall end” at noon on January 20, but two men could show up to be sworn in. One of them would arrive with all the tools and power of the presidency already in hand.
...
“Our Constitution does not secure the peaceful transition of power, but rather presupposes it,” the legal scholar Lawrence Douglas wrote in a recent book titled simply Will He Go?
...
Let us not hedge about one thing. Donald Trump may win or lose, but he will never concede. Not under any circumstance."
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on September 24, 2020, 07:00:19 AM
Trump Won't Commit to Peaceful Power Transfer at Surreal Press Briefing
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/23/donald-trump-press-conference-us-elections-breonna-taylor

... Wednesday was one of those days when to have a seat in the White House briefing room felts like stepping through the looking-glass into Blunderland, where the mad hatter has an authoritarian streak a mile wide.

Trump careered from touting miracle vaccines to building supreme court suspense, from insulting a female member of the British royal family to abruptly departing for a mysterious “emergency” phone call. But first, there was the small matter of kneecapping American democracy.

Perhaps it was not chance that the president, ever eager to generate media outrage, gave the first question to Brian Karem, who describes himself on Twitter as a “Loud Mouth” senior White House reporter at Playboy. “Will you commit to make sure there’s a peaceful transferral of power after the election?” Karem asked.

All of his 43 predecessors would have said yes, presumably. But Trump replied: “We’re going to have to see what happens, you know that. I’ve been complaining very strongly about the ballots, and the ballots are a disaster.”

Karem shot back: “I understand that, but people are rioting. Do you commit to make sure that there’s a peaceful transferral of power?”

Still Trump refused to commit. “Get rid of the ballots and you’ll have a very peaceful — there won’t be a transfer, frankly. There will be a continuation. The ballots are out of control. You know it. And you know who knows it better than anybody else? The Democrats know it better than anybody else.”

Later, Karem remarked on Twitter:

Quote
“This is the most frightening answer I have ever received to any question I have ever asked. I’ve interviewed convicted killers with more empathy. @realDonaldTrump is advocating Civil War.”

https://mobile.twitter.com/BrianKarem/status/1308902603145850882

And Julian Castro, who served in Barack Obama’s cabinet, tweeted:

Quote
“In one day, Trump refused a peaceful transition of power and urged the confirmation of a Supreme Court justice to hand him an election if the results are contested. This is Fascism, alive and well in the Republican Party.”

https://mobile.twitter.com/JulianCastro/status/1308918756438138881

(https://gonewiththetwins.com/new/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/therewillbeblood.jpg)

------------------------------------

Steve Bannon Urges Republicans To Sign Up As Election Officials And Contest Every Mail-In Ballot
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/09/23/steve-bannon-urges-republicans-to-sign-up-as-election-officials-and-contest-every-mail-in-ballot/amp/

Former White House chief strategist and accused fraudster Steve Bannon told attendees during a Wednesday night livestream held by the Metropolitan Republican Club that they should sign up as election officials to contest every mail-in ballot in November, as he alleged a think tank called the Transition Integrity Project will “steal” the election from President Trump.

Bannon, who faces federal charges of conspiring to commit fraud and money laundering in connection with a campaign to raise private money to build Trump’s long-promised border wall, said that 60 million to 80 million voters will cast mail-in ballots in the presidential election, which means “we need to sit there and contest every ballot,” presumably referring to Republicans

According to Bannon, the bipartisan Transition Integrity Project—which games out scenarios in which the election is contested—laid out the “lawfare” they will pursue to ensure Democratic nominee Joe Biden defeats Trump.

Both Bannon and Raheem Kassam, a former Breitbart News editor from London, England, who introduced Bannon on the livestream, claimed that coverage of the Transition Integrity Project by The Atlantic and the New York Times legitimized the think tank, whose efforts culminated in an August report stating Trump is “likely to contest [the election] through by both legal and extra-legal means.”

Bannon also claimed the “mainstream media and Silicon Valley oligarchs” will be “ripping down social media” in order to “make it very difficult for conservatives to communicate” after the election, allegedly so that Biden won’t have to concede while mail-in ballots are being counted.

“You’re going to have your Twitter accounts taken down or blocked for sharing false information,” Bannon said, likely referring to the social media company’s new policy of labeling misleading tweets as misinformation, or locking accounts until users delete tweets in violation.

Bannon stressed the importance of the Metropolitan Republican Club in the party’s election efforts, telling the 130-odd attendees who tuned in, “You guys are thought leaders, you’ve got to go to the barricades, weaponize yourself and make yourself useful in battleground states.”

“The mainstream media and oligarchs in Silicon Valley intend to have Facebook, YouTube and Google not declare Trump the winner,” Bannon said, and will instead “have Election Week and Election Month to push through to December, and push to [Speaker Nancy] Pelosi’s House of Representatives in January, when new Congress meets. It’s going to be the equivalent of a civil war when they refuse to declare Trump the president [and say] under no circumstances can Biden concede.”

--------------------------------

Trump tells reporters he wants a replacement for RBG quickly as he believes 2020 election will end up going to SCOTUS: “Yes, I think it’s very important. I think this will end up in the Supreme Court and I think it’s very important that we have nine justices."

https://mobile.twitter.com/Acosta/status/1308857897074520066

(https://m.arcamax.com/newspics/189/18954/1895420.gif)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 26, 2020, 01:54:02 PM
How did we get here—and how will it end?
https://americanmind.org/essays/revolution-2020/
Quote
Victory for the Democratic Party is a recipe for violent strife. The lack of moral-political authority at the head of the ruling class has been arguably the most important and least remarked fact of public life in 21st-century America. Most visibly since 2008, its leaders have led primarily by pulling rank—denigrating ordinary Americans and calling attention to their own elevated stations in government and society—and by courting the coalition of groups driven by intersectional hate. After an electoral victory, these leaders—the elected officials, the deep state bureaucrats, the corporate and finance chiefs, the educrats, etc.—will be able to wield power to the extent of the losers’ complaisance and their ability to satisfy the intersectionals’ ambitions and hates. Moderating and meshing these contrasting requirements would be hard even for exceptionally astute and potent persons. But neither Joe Biden nor Kamala Harris has talent, personal following, or moral authority. Hence, the winners would be hostages to the war that their own activists would wage against the rest of America, and to the deplorables’ resistance. For most ruling class notables, enjoying and parceling out victory’s prerogatives is the revolution’s point. They would prefer to suppress the deplorables while minimizing disruption of the economy and avoiding violence. For these chiefs, rubbing the deplorables’ faces in excrement is mostly an instrument of conflict. But for the intersectionals, it is the revolution’s very objective, its driving logic. For them, vengeance is electoral victory’s foremost prerogative. Determined as the chiefs may be that the intersectional tail must not wag the revolutionary dog, the fact is that each and every part of the intersectional coalition sees itself as the dog. For their part the deplorables would not accept the legitimacy of the Left’s victory in 2020 any more than the Left accepted the Right’s victory in 2016. Why should they? Lacking any hope of federal protection, they would retrench behind such state, local, and private means of resistance as they may have, while they sought effective national leadership. Sensing that disobedience to the point of violence had become the only effective means of defense, they would respond to challenges with force. The revolution’s logic would play out in a series of confrontations, and the revolution’s next stage would depend on these confrontations’ outcomes.

Quote
Donald Trump’s reelection would reduce the intersectionals’ confidence a bit and give the Right side of American life a bit more leeway as it chooses new leadership. In this slightly calmer atmosphere, the beginning of the 2024 election cycle would open a host of possibilities. But it would not end our revolution any more than the ruling class’s victory would. The revolution’s essentials would remain and its logic would continue to unfold. The ruling class, having failed peaceably and hence firmly to establish oligarchy, remains pressed by the deplorables on one side and its chosen intersectional instruments on the other. It dares not try dismounting the tiger it rides.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on September 26, 2020, 04:17:11 PM
"Victory for the Democratic Party is a recipe for violent strife"

Ummmm, 'violent strife' is happening right now, under TRUMP!

This upside-down thinking is part of what makes Repubs look more and more ridiculous to many here in the US and abroad.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 26, 2020, 05:42:40 PM
I think victory for Biden is a recipe for (more) violent strife.
And I think victory for Trump is a recipe for (more) violent strife.
I hope I am wrong.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on September 26, 2020, 07:38:42 PM
It is so funny how Democrats are so set on convincing everyone why their old white rapist is the best old white rapist. Like how stupid do you have to be to mimic the other candidate and then say that yours is better, after simultaneously alienating every single young person in this country through both the Bernie fiasco and the COVID lockdowns?

I am beginning to think the likelihood of a 350+ Trump EV blowout is increasing. I think there is a tremendous amount of youth apathy that is missing from polling models and I think the main forcing behind the vote this year will be resentment over the lockdowns which is also not being sampled accurately. These are potent motivators for both turnout towards Trump AND apathy towards Biden and could flip states like NJ, CT, and NY.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 26, 2020, 08:52:07 PM
The debates could decide. If Biden looks senile, then that could blow it.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Paddy on September 26, 2020, 09:18:42 PM
The debates could decide. If Biden looks senile, then that could blow it.

It's probably going to be a contest of who looks least senile out of the pair of them.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: oren on September 27, 2020, 09:52:57 AM
Biden is not good, but Trump is terrible.
He can still easily win, despite all the nice charts to the contrary, partly thanks to the rotten and jerry-rigged US election system and partly because of the easily swayed public. And if not, he might stay anyway. I am not optimistic.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ktb on September 27, 2020, 12:17:16 PM
Oren’s take is correct. Biden is not good. Trump is clearly worse.

Between gerrymandering, voter suppression, and intimidation, it is very possible for trump to win again. He could also lose and have a victory assigned by the Supreme Court.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 27, 2020, 01:02:13 PM
Here is the decision by the Pennsylvania Court on mail in ballots:
http://www.pacourts.us/assets/opinions/Supreme/out/J-96-2020mo%20-%20104548450113066639.pdf?cb=1
Quote
Based on our disposition of all of the claims set forth above, we grant relief on the
claims set forth in Counts I, II, and V of the Democratic Party’s petition for review as
follows and hold that: (Count I) the Election Code permits county boards of election to
collect hand-delivered mail-in ballots at locations other than their office addresses
including drop-boxes as indicated herein, see supra. at 20 n. 15; (Count II) a three-day
extension of the absentee and mail-in ballot received-by deadline is adopted such that
ballots mailed by voters via the United States Postal Service and postmarked by 8:00
p.m. on Election Day , November 3, 2020, shall be counted if they are otherwise valid and
received by the county boards of election on or before 5:00 p.m. on November 6, 2020;
ballots received within this period that lack a postmark or other proof of mailing, or for
which the postmark or other proof of mailing is illegible, will be presumed to have been
mailed by Election Day unless a preponderance of the evidence demonstrates that it was
mailed after Election Day;
How do we prevent Democrats just delivering enough votes lacking a postmark or other proof of mailing to give a Biden win, or Republicans enough such votes for a Trump win, after election day? What would be a "preponderance of the evidence" that they were mailed after election day?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: oren on September 27, 2020, 01:04:37 PM
How many items delivered by USPS lack a postmark? This is blown out of proportion.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on September 27, 2020, 01:05:52 PM
Here is the decision by the Pennsylvania Court on mail in ballots:
http://www.pacourts.us/assets/opinions/Supreme/out/J-96-2020mo%20-%20104548450113066639.pdf?cb=1
Quote
Based on our disposition of all of the claims set forth above, we grant relief on the
claims set forth in Counts I, II, and V of the Democratic Party’s petition for review as
follows and hold that: (Count I) the Election Code permits county boards of election to
collect hand-delivered mail-in ballots at locations other than their office addresses
including drop-boxes as indicated herein, see supra. at 20 n. 15; (Count II) a three-day
extension of the absentee and mail-in ballot received-by deadline is adopted such that
ballots mailed by voters via the United States Postal Service and postmarked by 8:00
p.m. on Election Day , November 3, 2020, shall be counted if they are otherwise valid and
received by the county boards of election on or before 5:00 p.m. on November 6, 2020;
ballots received within this period that lack a postmark or other proof of mailing, or for
which the postmark or other proof of mailing is illegible, will be presumed to have been
mailed by Election Day unless a preponderance of the evidence demonstrates that it was
mailed after Election Day;
How do we prevent Democrats just delivering enough votes lacking a postmark or other proof of mailing to give a Biden win, or Republicans enough such votes for a Trump win, after election day? What would be a "preponderance of the evidence" that they were mailed after election day?

The "Supreme PA Court decision" is a podunk ruling that will not stand up to jurisdiction or judicial review, IMO.

Democrats will not be allowed to steal the election, I wonder if jurisdictions like King County, Washington and the Five Boroughs will have to be discounted entirely due to the rampant ballot fraud that has likely already been ongoing for years. In NYC, our elections are completely non-transparent and the Democrats took a month to count the ballots for their own primary.

The US is ultimately ruled through the Courts and with the Supreme Court already tilted 5-4 R prior to RBG's passing, the judicially activist tactics currently being employed by Democrats have the potential to backfire in an enormous way, and on a national scale. In deciding on rulings like Podunk Pennsylvania cases they can simultaneously set precedent on OTHER issues if they so please.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 27, 2020, 03:09:33 PM
How many items delivered by USPS lack a postmark? This is blown out of proportion.
If on Wednesday Biden is narrowly winning (say) what is to stop the GOP from getting up some votes for Trump without postmarks (because it is too late for that) to push him over the top? Or vice versa? Would such shenanigans actually be attempted in our ------ political system?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on September 27, 2020, 09:44:31 PM
Sounds like Florida in 2000, when they decided to count all absentee ballots, including late arriving, unsigned, of non-postmarked.  We know how well that worked.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ktb on September 28, 2020, 12:28:13 AM
Bbr is trying to accuse dems of election rigging and voter fraud? That’s rich.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 28, 2020, 12:47:17 AM
Feds, In Unusual Statement, Announce They're Investigating A Few Discarded Ballots
https://www.npr.org/2020/09/24/916633925/feds-in-unusual-statement-announce-theyre-investigating-discarded-pa-ballots?utm_source=knewz
Quote
The FBI and the U.S. attorney for the Middle District of Pennsylvania said Thursday that they are investigating "potential issues" with nine military ballots in one county. They believe the ballots were opened improperly, though they have not filed any charges or taken official action.

I once was unable to vote in an election, and the candidate I would have voted for lost the coin toss. A few votes can matter. Also:

US Postal Service investigating trays of mail, absentee ballots found in Wisconsin ditch
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mail-absentee-ballots-found-wisconsin-ditch
Quote
The U.S. Postal Service is investigating how three trays of mail, including absentee ballots, ended up in a ditch line in Wisconsin, a swing state whose voters could prove crucial in the upcoming elections.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on September 28, 2020, 12:51:51 AM
Bbr is trying to accuse dems of election rigging and voter fraud? That’s rich.

Typical it has been the GOP accusing them of voter fraud, and the Dems denying that it exists.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on September 28, 2020, 02:21:13 AM
New York Times Publishes Donald Trump's Tax Returns In Election Bombshell
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/27/us/donald-trump-taxes.html
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/27/new-york-times-publishes-donald-trumps-tax-returns-election

Donald Trump, a self-proclaimed billionaire, paid only $750 in federal income taxes in the year he was elected US president, according to a stunning New York Times investigation that could shake up the presidential election.

“Trump taxes show chronic losses and years of tax avoidance,” was the banner headline on the paper’s website on Sunday. The president’s tax returns have long been the holy grail of American political reporting.

The president “paid $750 in federal income taxes the year he won the presidency”, the paper reported, adding that “in his first year in the White House, he paid another $750.

“He had paid no income taxes at all in 10 of the previous 15 years – largely because he reported losing much more money than he made.”

In all, the paper said, Trump paid no federal income taxes in 11 of 18 years its reporters examined. Many of his businesses, including his golf courses, report significant financial losses – which have helped him to lower his taxes.

The Times also said the documents it had obtained “comprise information that Mr Trump has disclosed to the IRS, not the findings of an independent financial examination.

Trumps reply: ... “Totally fake news, no. Actually I paid tax. And you’ll see that as soon as my tax returns – it’s under audit, they’ve been under audit for a long time. The [Internal Revenue Service] does not treat me well … they treat me very badly. You have people in the IRS – they treat me very badly.”

Pressed on why a billionaire only paid a few hundred dollars in the year he won the presidency, Trump insisted: “First of all I paid a lot, and I paid a lot of state income taxes too. The New York state charges a lot and I paid a lot of money in state. It’ll all be revealed. It’s going to come out but after the audit.”

The revelations threaten to damage Trump’s repeated claim to be a successful businessman and therefore a capable steward of the US economy.

The Times promised more stories in the coming weeks, adding: “The tax returns that Mr Trump has long fought to keep private tell a story fundamentally different from the one he has sold to the American public.” ...

--------------------------------------

Six Key Findings from the New York Times' Trump Taxes Bombshell
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/27/new-york-times-trump-tax-returns-key-findings

... The Times was brutal in its assessment of Trump’s businesses, about which he often boasts and on the back of which he sought to promote a carefully curated image as a master businessman. “Trump’s core enterprises – from his constellation of golf courses to his conservative-magnet hotel in Washington – report losing millions, if not tens of millions, of dollars year after year,” the newspaper said.

It detailed how since 2000, Trump has reported losing more than $315m at his golf courses, with much of that coming from Trump National Doral in Florida. His Washington hotel, which opened in 2016 and has been the subject of much speculation regarding federal ethics laws, has lost more than $55m. ...

(https://image.cagle.com/243084/750/243084.png)

(https://iroon.com/irtn/assets/miroon_3753/cartoon/7450/trump.jpg)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: oren on September 28, 2020, 03:27:14 AM
Quote
The revelations threaten to damage Trump’s repeated claim to be a successful businessman and therefore a capable steward of the US economy.
So what, Trump is a liar again? I doubt his supporters don't know that already, and I doubt it matters. I hope to be proven wrong though.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on September 28, 2020, 05:55:26 AM
Perhaps. But it will depend how how effectively dems and others can shape the narrative around it.

Trump's 'brand' is that he's a 'winner' not a 'loser.' But he told the IRS that he lost hundreds of millions on his various business enterpises/schemes, iirc from the coverage earlier this evening.

He is on record claiming that nearly all his companies lost absurd amounts of money for years and years

Another of his claims is that, because he's supposedly a billionaire, he can't possibly be beholden to anyone for money. But it turns out that he has to pony up nearly half a billion with b dollars within the next four years because of debts. That means he would be beholden to anyone with a big bank account willing and able to take advantage of his situation.

Oddly, it's possible that the $70,000 for hair styling may be the biggest hit to his image among the macho man crowd.

https://apnews.com/article/ruth-bader-ginsburg-courts-donald-trump-7e1d23d1e381ae3e0be6cb293338c05e

But yeah, as has been pointed out, his following is more and more cult-like...I don't mind if cult followers choose to follow their leader over a cliff or into a koolaid quenched oblivion...but I just don't want them to take me and the rest of my country with them
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ktb on September 28, 2020, 07:33:28 AM
Voter fraud does occur. Via mail-in or absentee ballot it is exceedingly rare.

I can find multiple sources citing voter fraud by polling station officials by both parties in just a few quick google searches.

And election rigging (thanks for ignoring that aspect of my comment) has been done successfully by the Republicans. 2000 springs to mind. The electoral college of course decides against the will of the people (2000 and 2016). And Trump has openly admitted that this election may be decided by the Supreme Court.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 28, 2020, 12:26:50 PM
Great, Ktb.
Now I have to worry about polling places as well as the Post Office.
Thanks a lot.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 28, 2020, 04:27:46 PM
I'm bypassing the post office and the polling place.  I'll take my ballot (in the signed envelope and withing the "privacy sleeve") to the Supervisor of Elections office this afternoon.  (The ballot arrived in Saturday's mail.)  Because I update my registration regularly, I 'know' my signature.  An on-line portal will tell me when my ballot has been counted (put through an optical scanner), and if my signature is questioned, they'll contact me, and I'll be able to substantiate it in person.

... and there will be shenanigans.  (Apologies to the Irish, or English, or Spanish, or Germans (https://www.worldwidewords.org/weirdwords/ww-she1.htm).)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sedziobs on September 28, 2020, 09:57:21 PM
The first high quality poll (per 538) of Nebraska's second district shows Biden ahead by 7 points. That single electoral vote could be the crucial #270 for Biden if he wins all of the states Clinton won and flips Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on September 28, 2020, 10:26:45 PM
Voter fraud does occur. Via mail-in or absentee ballot it is exceedingly rare.

I can find multiple sources citing voter fraud by polling station officials by both parties in just a few quick google searches.


Of course it does.  Only the naïve believe that it does not.  However, absentee ballot fraud is rather common, as it is one of the easiest to employ.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 29, 2020, 04:11:32 PM
I cut the cable a few years ago. Is there any way I can watch the debate?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 29, 2020, 04:43:04 PM
There will be several on-line methods to watch the debates. Per here (https://www.techradar.com/news/how-to-watch-first-presidential-debate-online-live-stream-trump-vs-biden-from-anywhere):
Quote
C-Span will show the full event on its [YouTube channel] YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wW1lY5jFNcQ&ab_channel=C-SPAN).
...
C-Span will show the first presidential debate on YouTube beginning at 9pm ET (6pm PT, 2am BST, 11am AEST) on Tuesday, September 29.
The "2am BST and 11am AEST" options will be on Wednesday, September 30, I'm sure!  Or do the Brits and Aussies get to watch before the US‽  :o :)  Or did they miss their chance this morning (their time)?  ::) :P :-\
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 29, 2020, 05:26:45 PM
From Electoral-Vote.com (https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Sep29.html#item-4) on endorsements recently received by Joe Biden:
Quote
...
Charles Wells was the Chief Justice of the Florida Supreme Court during the election of 2000. He dissented from the Court's decision to keep counting ballots, thus siding with George Bush. And when the case got to the U.S. Supreme Court, his dissent was incorporated into the majority opinion. Anyhow, he released a letter this weekend urging people to vote for Biden. "I am compelled to believe that our country, and thus our children and grandchildren, face a grave threat to keeping the kind of representative democracy that we have experienced in our life," the Judge wrote. "The only way that I can see that this threat can be eliminated is to vote for Biden. It will not be enough to just not vote for Trump. Any basis for a contested election can only really be eliminated by having the election not be close."

More is available from HillReporter.com (https://hillreporter.com/former-florida-supreme-court-chief-justice-charles-wells-who-opposed-election-recount-in-2000-endorses-joe-biden-80256)
Quote
“I set out my thoughts here because I am compelled to believe that our country, and thus our children and grandchildren, face a grave threat to keeping the kind of representative democracy that we have experienced in our life,” Wells wrote in the letter initially sent to family and friends. “I do not believe that we have had as serious a threat during our lives.”

Only a fast and overwhelming landslide victory for Biden will send Trump packing, he wrote.

“The only way that I can see that this threat can be eliminated is to vote for Biden,” he said. “It will not be enough to just not vote for Trump. Any basis for a contested election can only really be eliminated is by the election not being close.”
This endorsement from such a rock-solid Floridian Republican may have some influence on a few Republicans in Florida.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 30, 2020, 04:40:20 AM
Thanks Tor.
A schoolyard brawl. Sheesh.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ktb on September 30, 2020, 11:02:35 AM
That was, without a shadow of a doubt, the worst 1.5 hours of television I have ever seen.

I know there are undecided voters still (somehow), and watching that debate would not have convinced me of anything except that both candidates are children.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 30, 2020, 12:16:30 PM
The Cleveland Brawl: First Presidential Debate Was a Cage Fight
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/09/the_cleveland_brawl_first_presidential_debate_was_a_cage_fight.html
Quote
This was not the Lincoln-Douglas debates.  It was more like mud-wrestling!
Quote
Trump didn't leave his base or the undecided with a clear message or vision that was focused and sharp.
Quote
Trump will catch flak for his snarky comment after condemning white supremacy.  He called on the Proud Boys to "stand back," but he also said they should "stand by."
Quote
In short, the first debate was a no-holds-barred brawl.
Quote
There was nothing edifying about the debate, and probably few people will change their votes based on it.  The future moderators face a daunting challenge.

The first presidential debate: A quagmire and a farce
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/09/the_first_presidential_debate_a_quagmire_and_a_farce.html
Quote
President Trump came on stage looking grouchy and tired.
Quote
Although this was a debate for the presidency of our country, it seemed more like a schoolyard argument between two aggressive personalities lacking a mature concern for policy.

When even American Thinker is criticizing Trump's (and Biden's of course) behavior in the debate, you know we have sunk to a new low.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Hefaistos on September 30, 2020, 01:28:33 PM
Fake dues...
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Florifulgurator on September 30, 2020, 02:49:15 PM
both candidates are children.
American bothsiderism again. Thus the schoolyard bully has won the debate. Idiocracy.

https://youtu.be/icmRCixQrx8
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: ShortBrutishNasty on September 30, 2020, 03:37:41 PM
Hefeweisser,

1. Yep.  It really gets me bunched up when non-compliance with the U.S. Tax Code occurs.

2. Also, as I posted elsewhere, were there any concrete measures concerning the pandemic uttered by either candidate during the debate?

Thanks in advance.

SB&N
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sedziobs on September 30, 2020, 04:02:32 PM
were there any concrete measures concerning the pandemic uttered by either candidate during the debate?

Just going on memory here: Biden stressed increasing funding for schools so they can re-open safely, financial protection for small businesses, and wearing masks. Trump mentioned negative impacts of quarantine (alcoholism, divorce, etc.), affirmed disagreement with several of his own scientific advisors, and blamed everything on China and Democratic governors (said that millions of people would have died under Biden). He also mocked Biden's mask use, saying he is always wearing one, and even 200 feet away from someone he is wearing "the biggest mask I've ever seen."
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 30, 2020, 04:04:43 PM
SB&N:
My understanding is that Trump used the laws to pay the minimum possible. That’s fine. I pay an accountant to make my taxes the minimum possible. So do a hundred million Americans. Now, if Trump broke the law that’s different. And maybe the laws should be different than they are, but they are what they are.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sedziobs on September 30, 2020, 04:18:09 PM
After telling the fascist Proud Boys to stand by, Trump said "I am urging my supporters to go into the polls and watch very carefully, because that's what has to happen."
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 30, 2020, 04:48:32 PM
I understand Donald Trump's current 'audit' is about the legitimacy (or not) of the ~$70 million refund he received ~2015.  So the jury is still out if he 'just used the loopholes made available by the IRS code'.  If Trump goes bankrupt in the meantime (he apparently owes $400 million to somebody overseas), he might not have any lawyers anymore, so he'd lose his ~'children's inheritance'.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on September 30, 2020, 04:50:52 PM
That was, without a shadow of a doubt, the worst 1.5 hours of television I have ever seen.

I know there are undecided voters still (somehow), and watching that debate would not have convinced me of anything except that both candidates are children.

I could not agree more.  I was disgusted with Trump's behavior, which came as no surprise.  However, I was disappointed with Biden's performance.  I expected more. 

It will not likely affect marginal Trump supporters, as he did not show anything different than he has displayed over the past four years.  Those thinking of casting their ballots for Biden may be getting a tad queasy.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ken Feldman on October 01, 2020, 01:12:50 AM
Trump’s efforts to discredit voting by mail is leading to a big advantage for Democrats in early voting.

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gop-mail-ballots/2020/09/29/131a06fc-0263-11eb-b7ed-141dd88560ea_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gop-mail-ballots/2020/09/29/131a06fc-0263-11eb-b7ed-141dd88560ea_story.html)

Quote
Early surge of Democratic mail voting sparks worry inside GOP

By Amy Gardner and Josh Dawsey
September 29, 2020

Democratic voters who have requested mail ballots — and returned them — greatly outnumber Republicans so far in key battleground states, causing alarm among GOP party leaders and strategists that President Trump’s attacks on mail voting could be hurting the party’s prospects to retain the White House and the Senate this year.

Of the more than 9 million voters who requested mail ballots through Monday in Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Maine and Iowa, the five battleground states where such data is publicly available, 52 percent were Democrats. Twenty-eight percent were Republicans, and 20 percent were unaffiliated.

Additional internal Democratic and Republican Party data obtained by The Washington Post shows a similar trend in Ohio, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Wisconsin.

Quote
The margins are “stunning” — and bad news for Republicans up and down the ballot, said longtime GOP pollster Whit Ayres. While the Republican Party is focused on getting voters out on Election Day, he noted that older voters who have traditionally supported Republicans are most concerned about being infected with the novel coronavirus and could choose to stay home if the outbreak intensifies as the election nears.

The trend has emerged after Trump spent months assailing voting by mail, making unsubstantiated claims that it is prone to corruption and fraud — attacks that have resonated with Republican voters, polls show. State and local Republicans, fearful of losing what has long been a key turnout advantage for the GOP, spent the past few months racing to reassure voters that voting by mail was safe, despite the president’s rhetoric.

Quote
Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida who is tracking mail voting trends on his website, the United States Elections Project, noted that in some states, the number of ballots cast is already approaching 10 percent of the vote total in 2016. He added that turnout this fall could surpass that of four years ago before Election Day even arrives.

In North Carolina and Georgia, for instance, 1 in 5 voters who have cast ballots didn’t even vote in 2016, McDonald said. Requests for mail ballot are up astronomically in dozens of states; the figure is 350 percent in Michigan, for instance, when compared with 2016.

In North Carolina, 17 times more people have requested ballots than four years ago; in Wisconsin, requests were up by a factor of 12, according to internal RNC data.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Paddy on October 01, 2020, 11:09:15 AM
Wouldn't be at all surprised if Trump seems ahead on the on the day ballots in swing states that he then loses on the postal ballot count. Cue constitutional crisis when he refuses to respect the vote, tries to order the military to keep him in power etc. They might have to actually impeach him to get him out.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: be cause on October 01, 2020, 11:18:49 AM
SB&N:
My understanding is that Trump used the laws to pay the minimum possible. That’s fine. I pay an accountant to make my taxes the minimum possible. So do a hundred million Americans. Now, if Trump broke the law that’s different. And maybe the laws should be different than they are, but they are what they are.

 a decent man would do different ..
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 01, 2020, 11:32:40 AM
SB&N:
My understanding is that Trump used the laws to pay the minimum possible. That’s fine. I pay an accountant to make my taxes the minimum possible. So do a hundred million Americans. Now, if Trump broke the law that’s different. And maybe the laws should be different than they are, but they are what they are.

 a decent man would do different ..
So you say me and virtually all Americans are not decent?
Do you try to minimize your tax expense?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: be cause on October 01, 2020, 11:46:37 AM
 no I don't .. but then I'm neither a millionaire nor american . To me it is utterly indecent of you , your fellow rich and the president to avoid your responsibility .
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 01, 2020, 12:04:53 PM
I make nothing. I am living on an income steam of Social Security Disability and my late father’s trust fund. There are a lot of such “rich” Americans. And there are ones who make $100K a year but have family members in college and nursing homes that have to watch their spending. Where do you draw the line?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: be cause on October 01, 2020, 01:10:55 PM
Imagine an America where all taxes were paid in full by the rich and corporations . One in which every nook and cranny of avoidance was sorted as the new base line of responsible being .
  The trillions of dollars sucked from the environment and the rest of the world to prop up the monster would be no longer needed . Everyone could have the best of medical care etc , care homes and carers would be fully funded . and And AND ...
  only the country and it's president are bust , but wrapped up in bluff and bluster . 100 million of you cannot admit you and your 'king' are wearing no clothes . b.c.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 01, 2020, 01:52:20 PM
Read the New York Times’ ‘scoop’ on Trump’s tax returns and you’ll see – from its own weak evidence – it really is just fake news
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/502039-nyt-scoop-trump-tax-return/
Quote
It points to the flood of new members joining Trump’s Florida resort, Mar-a-Lago, in 2015 – before Trump was even elected, remember – as evidence, stating that his running for president allowed him to pocket millions of dollars more a year from his business. That’s right – it claims he profited from becoming president before the election, oblivious to the fact that it just told us his fortunes after the election fell to $10 million in 2017 and then fell another 70 percent to $2.9 million in 2018. Without even realizing it, the NYT inadvertently proved Trump did exactly as he had said he would do: he gave up his personal money-making enterprises when he became president, causing his personal annual income to plunge.

The paper notes that Trump’s Washington hotel, which opened just as he was elected, has lost more than $55 million. Yet it also claims he has received a financial boost from all those lobbyists, politicians, and foreign officials who pay to stay at his properties or join his clubs. Again, the numbers just don’t add up.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Paddy on October 01, 2020, 02:23:08 PM
I think that what the whole tax thing really shows is incompetence as a businessman. He's not paying taxes because the income stream from his reality TV career has dried up and his businesses run at a loss (and were doing so long before he ran for president).

Also, I don't really see a contradiction as claimed by that segment. He still has a conflict of interest from lobbyists etc putting money into his businesses even if the money made merely reduces the losses run.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on October 01, 2020, 02:48:54 PM
Imagine an America where all taxes were paid in full by the rich and corporations . One in which every nook and cranny of avoidance was sorted as the new base line of responsible being .
  The trillions of dollars sucked from the environment and the rest of the world to prop up the monster would be no longer needed . Everyone could have the best of medical care etc , care homes and carers would be fully funded . and And AND ...
  only the country and it's president are bust , but wrapped up in bluff and bluster . 100 million of you cannot admit you and your 'king' are wearing no clothes . b.c.

Are you imagining an America with high taxes to pay for all these benefits?  That about all the lost benefits associated with much lower income?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sedziobs on October 01, 2020, 03:57:35 PM
Wouldn't be at all surprised if Trump seems ahead on the on the day ballots in swing states that he then loses on the postal ballot count.

Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Arizona count the votes as they come in, rather than waiting until election day as in other swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. So we could have a decent idea of the outcome of those states on election night. I don't think Trump has a chance if he loses all four of those, and losing even one or two of them puts him in a really tough spot.

The opposite effect could happen in Texas. They start counting ballots early in jurisdictions with 100,000+ people. Those areas probably lean blue, so the election night results could favor Biden before ballots from rural areas swing back to Trump over the next few days. That could put a dent in Trump's narrative.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on October 01, 2020, 04:20:04 PM
Minnesota also starts to count absentee ballots before election day, but I'm not sure if they will disclose them the second polls are closed or not.

About a quarter of all Minnesotans who voted in 2016 did so early, and that was the first time that there was no-excuse-needed early/absentee voting. So I'm thinking that it will be more like half the votes that come in early. So yeah, I think that will tell us a lot pretty early, if they release the data the night of the election.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sedziobs on October 01, 2020, 04:40:05 PM
Minnesota verifies ballots as they come in, but doesn't start counting until election day. Nevada and Georgia (and rural Texas) also operate this way. Maybe the counting process is quick enough to release results the same day if the ballots have already been verified though.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on October 01, 2020, 05:10:47 PM
Wouldn't be at all surprised if Trump seems ahead on the on the day ballots in swing states that he then loses on the postal ballot count.

Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Arizona count the votes as they come in, rather than waiting until election day as in other swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. So we could have a decent idea of the outcome of those states on election night. I don't think Trump has a chance if he loses all four of those, and losing even one or two of them puts him in a really tough spot.


I think he needs to win all four just to have a chance.  Even that would put him a state of two short.  He needs to win Wis, Penna., Minn., or Mich. to claim a second term.  I think the odds are against him.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on October 01, 2020, 05:13:52 PM
Thanks for the clarification, sedziobs. I must have misunderstood the folks at the place where I just voted early.

It looks like they open the ballots starting on the seventh day before election day and put them in 'the appropriate ballot box' but the official counting doesn't happen till the polls are closed:

https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/203B.121
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 01, 2020, 05:16:57 PM
Isn’t the real decision when the electors vote? When is that?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on October 01, 2020, 06:32:03 PM
More Americans say violence is justified if their candidate loses
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/01/political-violence-424157

A bipartisan group of pollsters, noticing a yearslong rise in such sentiment, pooled their data and wrote in Politico: “All together, about 1 in 5 Americans with a strong political affiliation says they are quite willing to endorse violence if the other party wins the presidency.” The YouGov and Voter Study Group surveys by margins of error between 1.5 to 3 percentage points; those by Nationscape, between 2 and 2.1 percentage points.

“How seriously should we take these expressions of violence? Both history and social psychology warn us to take them very seriously,” they write.

----------------------------------

25,000 veterans of the military and law enforcement are members of the armed, extremist anti-government group Oath Keepers.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/right-wing-militias-civil-war/616473/

The Atlantic’s Mike Giglio has just posted a long feature profile of the group, after spending “months” researching and talking to its members, of which two-thirds were counted as military or LEO from small towns to the FBI, and 10 percent “active duty.” Giglio writes, “There were members of the Special Forces, private military contractors, an Army psyops sergeant major, a cavalry scout instructor in Texas, a grunt in Afghanistan. There were Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers, a 20-year special agent in the Secret Service, and two people who said they were in the FBI.”

What do they do? Like an unofficial goon squad, they show up for everything from the border with Mexico to BLM protests to Trump’s political rallies. Founder Stewart Rhodes “sent members to ‘protect’ Trump supporters from the protesters at his rallies and appeared in the VIP section at one of them, standing in the front row in a black Oath Keepers shirt.”

They bring a certain set of skills… Oath Keepers prides its success and survival on members keeping their mouths shut, but Giglio found: “A soldier with a U.S. Army email address detailed a background in battlefield intelligence, writing, ‘I am willing to use any skills you identify as helpful,’ and an Iraq War veteran pledged ‘any talents available to a former infantry team leader.’ Still others listed skills in marksmanship, SWAT tactics, interrogation.”

Why do they do it? “Rhodes had tapped into a deep current of anxiety, one that could cause a surprisingly large contingent of people with real police and military experience to consider armed political violence.” Giglio spoke to several of them. At a protest in Richmond, the veteran war correspondent summed up what he saw. “To me they had the aspect of children playing at war, only their guns were real.”

... “Asked plainly if he welcomed the support of white supremacists who ‘clearly love you,’ Trump did not register the problem with that supposition. In fact, he bobbed his head in a seemingly knowing yes motion.”

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-tries-to-step-out-of-the-proud-boys-mess-he-created?ref=home

-------------------------------------

Trump’s words help Russia sow division and distrust among Americans
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/30/magazine/trump-voter-fraud.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/30/us/politics/trump-debate-election.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

For more than four years, Trump has been issuing baseless claims of voter fraud and threatening to ignore results he doesn’t like. “But he had never before put it all together in front of such a large audience as he did on Tuesday night,” Sanger writes.

That’s a national security bottom line of two sweeping reports by the New York Times describing how Trump and his political allies are trying to

a) suppress the votes of citizens who might vote against him, and

b) cast doubt upon the electoral process so that the result can be decided by the courts or by Congress instead of by the popular vote.

Let’s take vote suppression first: “In recent years, Americans have faced a growing variety of obstacles put up by Republican officials to fight voter fraud, a problem that is largely nonexistent,” Jim Rutenberg writes in the New York Times Magazine. You probably know about many of them: tightening voter ID requirements, closing hundreds of polling places, aggressively purging voter-registration rolls, and more.

Now “it is becoming clear that the Trump administration and the Republican Party are not just looking at but heavily investing in the largely nonexistent problem of voter fraud,” Rutenberg writes. His investigation, “based on a review of thousands of pages of court records and interviews with more than 100 key players — lawyers, activists and current and former government officials — found an extensive effort to gain partisan advantage by aggressively promoting the false claim that voter fraud is a pervasive problem.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/30/magazine/trump-voter-fraud.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Second: Laying the groundwork to ignore the vote. Writes NYT’s David Sanger: “President Trump’s angry insistence in the last minutes of Tuesday’s debate that there was no way the presidential election could be conducted without fraud amounted to an extraordinary declaration by a sitting American president that he would try to throw any outcome into the courts, Congress or the streets if he was not re-elected.”

... Sanger writes: “Mr. Trump’s unwillingness to say he would abide by the result, and his disinformation campaign about the integrity of the American electoral system, went beyond anything President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia could have imagined. All Mr. Putin has to do now is amplify the president’s message, which he has already begun to do.”

(https://www.thebubble.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/v_dominoes.png)

What worries American intelligence and homeland security officials is not just the fodder for Russia’s infowar trolls, but “that over the next 34 days, the country may begin to see disruptive cyberoperations, especially ransomware, intended to create just enough chaos to prove the president’s point.”

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2020/10/the-d-brief-october-01-2020/168922/
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 01, 2020, 06:47:23 PM
Isn’t the real decision when the electors vote? When is that?
from https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/key-dates
Quote
...
December 14, 2020—electors vote in their States

The electors meet in their respective States and vote for President and Vice President on separate ballots. The electors record their votes on six Certificates of Vote, which are paired with the six remaining Certificates of Ascertainment. The electors sign, seal, and certify six sets of electoral votes. A set of electoral votes consists of one Certificate of Ascertainment and one Certificate of Vote.

December 23, 2020—electoral votes arrive

Electoral votes (the Certificates of Vote) must be received by the President of the Senate and the Archivist no later than nine days after the meeting of the electors. If votes are lost or delayed, the Archivist may take extraordinary measures to retrieve duplicate originals.

On or before January 3, 2021—Archivist transfers Certificates to Congress

As the new Congress assembles, the Archivist transmits sets of Certificates to Congress, as requested. This generally happens when the Senate does not receive its set of Certificates on time. The transfer occurs in late December or early January when OFR’s Legal staff meets with representatives of the Secretary of the Senate and the Clerk of the House.

January 6, 2021—Congress counts the electoral votes

Congress meets in joint session to count the electoral votes. The Vice President, as President of the Senate, presides over the count and announces the results of the Electoral College vote. The President of the Senate then declares which persons, if any, have been elected President and Vice President of the United States.

If any objections to the electoral votes are made, they must be submitted in writing and be signed by at least one member of the House and one Senator. If objections are presented, the House and Senate withdraw to their respective chambers to consider the merits of the objection(s) under procedures set out in Federal law.
...
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 01, 2020, 09:42:54 PM
I delivered my ballot to the Supervisor of Elections' office on Tuesday [I waited for my wife to complete her ballot so that I could take both of them in.].  Today I went to the Supervisor's website and looked myself up:
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Bruce Steele on October 02, 2020, 04:23:10 AM
I learned a lot about cutting against the grain when I took ballet as a young boy. People can easily be affected by their peers. Fighting groupthink is not a choice most people make.
 Our American society seems to be picking sides these days and going against the grain are those trying to find middle ground. I am neither a good liberal or a good conservative and when I take political stands I tend to get a beating from both sides. In my opinion the internet has been the single largest contributor to our current political malaise. Fight for middle ground my friends. If we don’t stand together we will surely die separate. Yet I still cheer on the kid with the Mohawk marching against the crowd in the mosh pit. Sorry if I sound conflicted.
 I wear an Obama fleece in crowds of conservatives but I support an americans right to own a gun.
I don’t talk about guns on this site however because Neven prefers I not talk about them. I hope the left never returns to the violence of the sixties but I am afraid the left only has so much patience.
If the middle folds so does the republic.
 
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on October 02, 2020, 05:44:52 AM
Glen Ford at blackagendarepont is not on the Biden train:

"The rich man’s media are calling it “the worst debate in modern American history,” but that’s because the truth is often painful to watch. "

"the Democratic alternative to the white supremacist Republican in the White House is — another lifelong racist, mass-incarcerating, corporate-serving, warmongering old white man. "

"In an actual democracy the Democrats would, indeed, have committed political suicide by nominating a corporate hack and career race-baiter like Biden as their standard-bearer. But the U.S. is a corporate dictatorship where the rich have two parties and the rest of us effectively have none. "

"It’s a simple formula that allows Democrats to promise their base nothing — except that they are not Trump or some other flagrant racist."

"you can’t “challenge” Biden and Harris for their anti-Black behavior as elected officials by continuing to elect them. The vote is the reward."

https://blackagendareport.com/politics-led-worst-debate

sidd

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 02, 2020, 12:43:54 PM
With Trump in isolation I assume we won’t get any more debates, especially if he gets sick. And Biden was near him just a few days ago. Neither is a spring chicken. It is conceivable we will lose both candidates just before the election.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 02, 2020, 01:04:38 PM
With Trump in isolation I assume we won’t get any more debates, especially if he gets sick. And Biden was near him just a few days ago. Neither is a spring chicken. It is conceivable we will lose both candidates just before the election.

With Trump testing positive and possibly having met with Pence at the White House, it is conceivable that we are talking about President Pelosi until at least January 20, 2021.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on October 02, 2020, 02:38:11 PM
What would happen if Biden gets sick, and dies before the election? Who would become the nominee? Kamala, or Bernie?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 02, 2020, 03:55:57 PM
If a Presidential candidate dies (or otherwise withdraws from the race) after the party convention, the party organization (e.g., Republican National Committee [RNC]) selects the replacement (Mike Pence would be a likely replacement for Donald Trump and Nikki Haley would be a likely replacement for the elevated Pence).  If after ballots are printed, a vote for Trump/Pence would be a vote for (presumably) Pence/Haley.  If after the election and before Dec. 14, the RNC  would 'recommend' Republican electors vote for their chosen replacements (but the GOP electors would be free agents, at least when voting for president).  If after Dec. 14 (when electors vote) and the President-elect is 'out', the Vice-President-elect would be sworn in on Jan. 20 as President.  Per the Constitution's 25th Amendment,
Quote
Section 2. Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.
If Trump died after Dec. 14, having received enough sympathy votes to win the election, President Pence may have a difficult time getting a VP through the Democratic House. (If the Senate was 50-50 in January, there would be no tie-breaking vote in that chamber, so maybe the Ds would keep the VP seat open 'for the duration'.  The President of the Senate would be the Senate's president pro tempore who is a member of the Senate.  [The Senate worked out a rotating president pro tempore in 1911 when neither party could 'win outright'.])
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on October 02, 2020, 05:15:37 PM
Donald Trump showing mild 'cold-like symptoms' – reports
https://www-nytimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/02/world/covid-19-coronavirus.amp.html?amp_js_v=0.1#the-president-was-said-to-have-seemed-lethargic-at-a-fund-raiser-at-his-new-jersey-golf-club

Trump is showing symptoms of the novel coronavirus, but mild ones, according to two people familiar with his condition, reports the New York Times. Maggie Haberman writes:

The president has had what one person described as cold-like symptoms. At a fund-raiser he attended at his golf club at Bedminster, New Jersey, on Thursday, where one attendee said the president came in contact with about 100 people, he seemed lethargic.

A person briefed on the matter said that Mr. Trump fell asleep at one point on Air Force One on the way back from a rally in Minnesota on Wednesday night.

A White House official said that as of Thursday night, the president’s treatment plan was still being discussed. So was a possible national address or a videotaped statement from the president to demonstrate that he was functioning and that the government is uninterrupted.


White House chief of staff Mark Meadows confirmed the White House learned of Hope Hicks’ positive test result yesterday, as Marine One was taking off to start the president’s trip to New Jersey.

Despite that, Trump continued on to New Jersey and held a fundraising event with donors.

Gov. Philip D. Murphy of New Jersey urged people who attended Mr. Trump’s Bedminster fund-raiser to get tested and said that the state was using contact tracing to try to find them. [... super-spreader ]

-----------------------------------------

Two days before announcing he had contracted Covid-19, Donald Trump was tossing campaign baseball caps into his campaign rally crowd with his bare hands while in Duluth, Minnesota.

... smallpox blankets for the natives?

----------------------------------------

RNC Chairwoman Tests Positive for Coronavirus - Report
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/02/us/trump-vs-biden#ronna-mcdaniel-chairwoman-of-the-rnc-tests-positive-for-the-coronavirus

Ronna McDaniel, the chairwoman of the Republican national committee, has reportedly tested positive for coronavirus.

The New York Times reports:

... [McDaniel] has tested positive for the coronavirus and is experiencing mild symptoms, according to multiple people briefed on the situation. ...

She was last with Mr. Trump on Friday, and has been at her home in Michigan since then, the people briefed on the matter said.

She received her diagnosis on Wednesday, they said. After a crowded donor event in March at Mar-a-Lago, the president’s private club in Florida, Ms. McDaniel fell ill, but she tested negative at the time.


--------------------------------------

Fox News: White House coronavirus adviser Scott Atlas reacts to Trump's coronavirus diagnosis, says 'zero reason to panic'

https://youtu.be/zDAmPIq29ro

Fox News anchor Chris Wallace, who moderated Tuesday’s presidential debate, took issue with trusting Atlas as a source of information.

“I’m going to say something, and folks, I’m just trying to give you the truth,” Wallace said. “Dr Scott Atlas is not an epidemiologist, is not an infectious disease specialist. He has no training in this area at all.”

Wallace referenced reports indicating other members of the White House coronavirus task force have raised concerns about Atlas’ credibility.

“I very much hope everything he says is true,” Wallace added. “One, he can’t know because the president is just in the earliest stages of this. And two, you know, I understand the desire of the White House and its political people to try to talk this down.”

Wallace then urged viewers to follow the advice of health experts like Drs Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx. “Listen to the independent people who do not have a political ax to grind, and I frankly don’t think Scott Atlas is one of those people,” Wallace said.

https://mobile.twitter.com/LisPower1/status/1312025436361297930

----------------------------------------

Vice-president Mike Pence tests negative for coronavirus

If Trump becomes too ill to lead the country, the vice-president, Mike Pence, will be placed in charge. If Pence is also incapacitated, the House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat, would be the most likely person to take over.

... Antibody test may miss recent infections.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: gerontocrat on October 02, 2020, 05:36:46 PM
Well well well. Someone else has done a far better job on expressing an opinion about it all...extracts below.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/02/trump-joked-covid-president-diagnosis-maga-virus
Trump joked while people suffered with Covid. Well, is now the time to stop?
Marina Hyde

Quote
Well, it’s definitely a plot twist. Like a lot of people who sat through Tuesday’s presidential debate, I’m amazed the week has ended with Donald Trump ingesting bleach, and not me.

As you may vaguely have heard, the US president and his wife, Melania, have tested positive for the novel coronavirus – which feels untimely given that, mere hours earlier, Trump had been declaring: “The end of the pandemic is in sight.” Perhaps this is a one-last-job movie. Alternatively, picture a Wuhan bat staring pensively into the fireplace as its butler suggests not thinking too hard about Trump’s motivations. Some poorly facepainted men just want to watch the world burn.

Still, let’s stay on track. God knows, it’s excruciatingly hard to chirp “Get well soon!” to this particular patient, but … get well soonish. Those of us who want to escape the cesspool Trump has helped drag the world into will wish him a better time with the virus than the one to which he blithely condemned so many of those he was elected to serve. Each to their own, but I’m against all forms of the death penalty, karmic or otherwise.

Jokes, though? Oh, jokes are very much permitted at this stage. I consider myself deeply pro-joke, for moral reasons. I appreciate that the Old Testament isn’t exactly a gagfest, but I believe in a joke for a joke, you know? And no one – NO ONE – has told more jokes about the coronavirus than Donald Trump. He’s the Covid Joker, if you’ll permit another Gotham callback. He would surely want us to follow his lead........

Anyway, as Trump pointed out last week, the virus “affects virtually nobody”, and has currently only affected 200,000 American nobodies to death. Arguably the real victims here are the president’s MAGA disciples, who are devoted to him but also don’t believe the virus even exists. Trump being officially diagnosed with it is category 5 cognitive dissonance – a logical contradiction so intense it could crash their circuitry, causing them to immediately lay down their assault rifles and open a chain of abortion clinics.

And so to the political implications of Trump’s Covid diagnosis, which I couldn’t predict less accurately if I were picking through some sacrificed goat entrails. Joe Biden is already under pressure to suspend his campaign, just as Trump totally would if the boot were on the other foot. Then again, who knows – maybe the boot is on both feet?

On Tuesday, the world watched the ancient esoteric ritual whereby leadership of the tribal land of America is decided by two septuagenarian males spending 90 minutes spraying spittle at each other, apparently after drinking ayahuasca. A somewhat primitive society, all told, though supposedly it’s culturally insensitive to point that sort of thing out these days.

Perhaps there’s a certain neatness to the conclusion that virtually all reality TV elimination formats now look more sophisticated than the US election. It could really only elevate the contest if Trump and Biden were forced to battle out the rest of the campaign in isolation in a multi-camera McMansion, or on a specially adapted tropical island, or atop an abandoned karaoke soundstage. Unfortunately, the entire planet has to keep watching the show for the age-old reason. Namely, that when America shits the bed, the rest of the world has to lie in it. (That’s actually not one of Henry Kissinger’s famous adages, trivia buffs, though I’m happy for it to be included in The Little Book of Realpolitik.)

On a personal level, meanwhile, it’s not clear how President Trump will cope with the standard Covid isolation lifestyle: holing up in front of endless hours of TV and communicating only by social media. He famously cheats so wantonly at golf that it’s reasonable to imagine him continuing to notch up record-breaking scorecards at his various courses while never leaving the White House.

...... it was only a couple of weeks ago that Trump was asked if he wasn’t worried about Covid spreading at his indoor rallies, eliciting the deathless reply: “I’m on a stage and it’s very far away.” Yet another reminder that all populists hate their people, some less secretly than others. This morning, it emerged that the White House had been aware of his aide Hope Hicks’s symptoms when Trump flew to a New Jersey fundraiser, where he was in much closer contact with his own supporters at a roundtable. No doubt it would be honour to be infected by him, and all that.


• Marina Hyde is a Guardian columnist

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on October 02, 2020, 06:24:15 PM
... the gift that keeps on givin' ...

Republican Senator Mike Lee Tests Positive for Coronavirus
https://mobile.twitter.com/SenMikeLee/status/1312055257992753152

Republican senator Mike Lee of Utah announced that he has also tested positive for coronavirus.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EjVbRvFXYAAYKAn.jpg)

Senator Mike Lee met with supreme court nominee Amy Coney Barrett on Tuesday, two days before Lee tested positive for coronavirus.

Senator Mike Lee was at the White House on Saturday for the announcement of Amy Coney Barrett’s supreme court nomination.

Lee hugged some of the guests at the Rose Garden event while holding his mask in his hand, disregarding coronavirus guidelines to wear a mask while in close proximity to others.

---------------------------------------

Another Republican senator at Rose Garden event for Supreme Court nominee tests positive
https://mobile.twitter.com/ESCochrane/status/1312183673811161088

This brings the total number of confirmed coronavirus cases among attendees at the event to six, CNN reporter Betsy Klein notes.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EjXQFvzXkAUba4z?format=jpg&name=medium)

-------------------------------------

New Jersey contract tracers waited a full day on names of donors, staff exposed to Trump
https://mobile.twitter.com/mtredden/status/1312161639836180480

By late Friday afternoon, contract tracers in New Jersey were still waiting for White House and RNC officials to hand over the list of names of people exposed to coronavirus after coming in contact with Trump last night at a fundraiser at a New Jersey golf course, Huffington Post’s Molly Redden reports.

Public social media posts from some attendees of Trump’s fundraiser also show them out in public, mingling with other people, and not wearing masks, already fanning out in public across the country, even half a day after Trump’s diagnosis was made public.

--------------------------------------

Kellyanne Conway has tested positive for Covid-19, says symptoms are ‘mild’
https://twitter.com/KellyannePolls/status/1312214949658152960

She is the seventh person at the Rose Garden event announcing Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination to the supreme court to confirm she has tested positive for coronavirus.

Kellyanne was seated almost at the exact center of the triangle formed by Sen. Mike Lee, Melania Trump and Rev. Jenkins — all of whom tested positive earlier today.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EjXJmQBXsAA4N0e?format=jpg&name=medium)

Tested Positive: Left to right: Sen. Thom Tillis, Sen. Mike Lee, University of Notre Dame President Rev. John Jenkins, first lady Melania Trump, Kellyanne Conway

First row, left to right: Kate Todd, Pat Cipollone, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, Attorney General William Barr, Tiffany Trump, second lady Karen Pence, Vice President Mike Pence; Second row: Kellyanne Conway

First row, left to right: Sen. Deb Fischer, Sen. Marsha Blackburn, Sen. Mike Crapo, Sen. Thom Tillis, Sen. Josh Hawley, Sen. Ben Sasse; Second row: Sen. Kelly Loeffler

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/02/trump-timeline-activities-425041

All they had to do is distance the chairs. They couldn’t even do the bare minimum. People should be fired over this. People would be fired over this in a normal admin.

---------------------------------------

11 coronavirus cases linked to presidential debate in Cleveland
https://clecityhall.com/2020/10/02/city-of-cleveland-statement-regarding-post-debate-covid-19-cases-update-194/

Cleveland city officials announced earlier today that they had confirmed at least 11 cases of coronavirus connected with the presidential debate held there on Tuesday.

“In total, at this time, we are aware of 11 cases stemming from pre-debate planning and set-up, with the majority of cases occurring among out of state residents,” a press release said. “At this time, though that could change, no City residents appear to have contracted the virus as a result of this event.”

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1312195667477979136

----------------------------------

Top leaders of Congress have had no briefing about Trump’s health. Gang of Eight hasn’t been notified about his health or informed about his transfer to Walter Reed, per multiple sources.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was NOT informed of President Trump’s planned movement to Walter Reed, a Democratic aide tells @kasie.

She has not had any further conversations about continuity of government planning with the White House in the intervening hours

--------------------------------------

Biden Tests Negative for Coronavirus - Report
https://mobile.twitter.com/MariannaNBCNews/status/1312063200582668288
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: ritter on October 02, 2020, 06:29:34 PM
I learned a lot about cutting against the grain when I took ballet as a young boy. People can easily be affected by their peers. Fighting groupthink is not a choice most people make.
 Our American society seems to be picking sides these days and going against the grain are those trying to find middle ground. I am neither a good liberal or a good conservative and when I take political stands I tend to get a beating from both sides. In my opinion the internet has been the single largest contributor to our current political malaise. Fight for middle ground my friends. If we don’t stand together we will surely die separate. Yet I still cheer on the kid with the Mohawk marching against the crowd in the mosh pit. Sorry if I sound conflicted.
 I wear an Obama fleece in crowds of conservatives but I support an americans right to own a gun.
I don’t talk about guns on this site however because Neven prefers I not talk about them. I hope the left never returns to the violence of the sixties but I am afraid the left only has so much patience.
If the middle folds so does the republic.
Leaving lurk mode for a big +1 to all of this.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Florifulgurator on October 02, 2020, 11:41:23 PM
https://www.upworthy.com/people-familiar-with-stuttering-explain-bidens-extraordinary-performance-in-debate

(https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDQ1MzUwMy9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxMDY2ODE4OH0.xkI4NCcfFhpbMpeeLkqbgOudp2IZt4DpMIOUdcwhQNw/img.jpg)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 03, 2020, 12:48:54 AM
Mail-In Balloting, the 12th Amendment and Impending Doom
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_ted_rall/mail_in_balloting_the_12th_amendment_and_impending_doom
Quote
Used only once -- in 1825 to elect John Quincy Adams -- the 12th Amendment triggers a bizarre "House of Cards" series of remedies guaranteed to eliminate any remaining belief that the Framers wrote a perfect document designed to withstand the test of time, or that the United States is a democracy.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Bruce Steele on October 03, 2020, 03:02:50 PM
Ritter, I hope you ,your wife and daughter are healthy and doing well. The smoke this year has my lungs kinda gunked up. What a year !
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: sidd on October 04, 2020, 12:40:31 AM
Fake video and real truths: RepresentUs airs deepfakes of Putin and Kim Jong Un warning of election failure

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbFHhpYU15w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERQlaJ_czHU

sidd
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ken Feldman on October 04, 2020, 03:00:10 AM
https://www.upworthy.com/people-familiar-with-stuttering-explain-bidens-extraordinary-performance-in-debate

(https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDQ1MzUwMy9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxMDY2ODE4OH0.xkI4NCcfFhpbMpeeLkqbgOudp2IZt4DpMIOUdcwhQNw/img.jpg)

I watched that sh*tshow and at first couldn’t figure out what Trump was doing. It dawned on me about halfway through that he was trying to trigger Biden’s stutter.

According to the polls, Trump’s performance backfired spectacularly. Most polls show Trump favored by 43 to 46% of voters. Fewer than 30% thought he won the debate.

Biden is now polling above 50% nationwide and in most battleground states. Even Iowa and Georgia are favoring Biden. This is starting to look like a landslide.

Several Senate races have tightened up too. The Democrats are now projected to win 3 to 7 seats. Three would give them a tie, so if Biden wins his legislation would pass because the Vice President breaks ties in the Senate.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: ritter on October 05, 2020, 04:29:17 PM
Ritter, I hope you ,your wife and daughter are healthy and doing well. The smoke this year has my lungs kinda gunked up. What a year !

Thank, Bruce. Still alive and kicking, just hunkered. It's been a hell of a year and this summer has been horrid with the Wallbridge Fire and the Glass Fire. We've had maybe a week of good air in the last two months. It isn't helping the mental health, on top of pandemic, social chaos and the election nuttiness. Here's to a return of rainfall!
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on October 05, 2020, 05:42:06 PM
The democrats chance for a gain in North Carolina Senate race just took a nasty turn.  Cal Cunningham has admitted to sexting another woman.  This revelation cam forth shortly after Thom Tillis announced he has tested positive for Covid. 
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 06, 2020, 12:23:24 PM
Does anyone have a link to tomorrow’s VP debate?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: SteveMDFP on October 06, 2020, 02:16:04 PM
Does anyone have a link to tomorrow’s VP debate?
These days, multiple outlets do a live YouTube stream.  You can simply go to YouTube a couple of hours before and search for: " live 'vice presidential debate' " and you'll have a pick of streams.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 06, 2020, 09:09:54 PM
From the Nuclear Power thread comes this:
...
Awful young [reactor] to get a leak.   Early 2018 is date I have for starting up via their website.  Of course as Mr. AllThingsNuclear Dave Lochbaum used to say, you get the most problems early on and then another batch down the road.   
https://www.rosenergoatom.ru/en/npp/rostov-npp/
Paraphrasing Dave Lockbaum
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on October 06, 2020, 11:17:59 PM
From the Nuclear Power thread comes this:
...
Awful young [reactor] to get a leak.   Early 2018 is date I have for starting up via their website.  Of course as Mr. AllThingsNuclear Dave Lochbaum used to say, you get the most problems early on and then another batch down the road.   
https://www.rosenergoatom.ru/en/npp/rostov-npp/
Paraphrasing Dave Lockbaum
  • Concerning a presidency held by the 'other' party:  you get the most problems early on and then another batch down the road.

I think that is true regardless of which one is the "other party."
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 07, 2020, 07:51:22 PM
Absolutely!
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on October 07, 2020, 11:28:08 PM
Bishop Johnston tells KC Catholics to vote for Trump, twisting Pope Francis’ intent

https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/readers-opinion/guest-commentary/article246260870.html#storylink=cpy


Quote
In paragraph 101, [the Pope] states: “The other harmful ideological error is found in those who find suspect the social engagement of others” as if “the only thing that counts is one particular ethical issue or cause. … Our defense of the innocent unborn, for example, needs to be clear, firm and passionate. … Equally sacred, however, are the lives of the poor, those already born, the destitute, the abandoned and the underprivileged, the vulnerable infirm.”

Read more here: https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/readers-opinion/guest-commentary/article246260870.html#storylink=cpy
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 08, 2020, 04:44:09 AM
Well, at least that was better than the first debate.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ktb on October 08, 2020, 09:44:33 AM
Calmly told lies. Avoiding questions at all costs.

The American debating system is broken. Politicians don't want to give a hard answer for anything. Never more evident than the VP debate. We need a total overhaul in politicians and politics.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: greylib on October 08, 2020, 10:39:32 AM
I've long blamed the US schools system for this. "Debating" seems to be a big thing there - the object being only to win. Belief in what you're saying doesn't matter, and neither does truth. Only winning.

In the UK, few of our schools do this. Our older universities do, though, especially Oxford. It might be a coincidence, but most of our senior Civil Servants and politicians are Oxford graduates.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on October 08, 2020, 07:06:49 PM
The lies (and flies! :) ) were pretty much all from the Pence side, as confirmed here

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/10/08/vp-debate-fact-check-harris-pence-covid-19-taxes-economy/5909622002/

Harris was pretty consistently truthful, though of course she told truths that emphasized the (many) negatives of the Trump admin obviously without trying to 'balance' them with truths that give Trump credit...so a couple of here unquestionably true statements were nevertheless labeled as 'misleading'--but again, far more of Pences statements (I don't say 'answers' because he hardly actually answered any of the actual questions) were labeled misleading, and unlike Harris, tons were outright lies, and yes, told calmly without batting an eyelash (or a fly :) )
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on October 08, 2020, 11:05:15 PM
The lies (and flies! :) ) were pretty much all from the Pence side, as confirmed here

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/10/08/vp-debate-fact-check-harris-pence-covid-19-taxes-economy/5909622002/

Harris was pretty consistently truthful, though of course she told truths that emphasized the (many) negatives of the Trump admin obviously without trying to 'balance' them with truths that give Trump credit...so a couple of here unquestionably true statements were nevertheless labeled as 'misleading'--but again, far more of Pences statements (I don't say 'answers' because he hardly actually answered any of the actual questions) were labeled misleading, and unlike Harris, tons were outright lies, and yes, told calmly without batting an eyelash (or a fly :) )

I think your bias is showing.  Neither candidate was particularly truthful, and both were evasive.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Florifulgurator on October 09, 2020, 03:10:32 AM
without batting an eyelash (or a fly :) )
What an apt meme. Psychopathy?

This should enter colloquial language. :D


Perfect synopsis of the more important debate of course on evil MSM MSNBC.
"She was Mamala in that moment" -- Joy Reid

https://youtu.be/M4iIMPhqUmM

... and a reminder that Obama could kill flies with his bare hands while focussing on an interview:

https://youtu.be/S9sPPcSp708

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 09, 2020, 03:20:42 PM
Abe Lincoln's reasons for not nominating a Supreme Court justice just before the election was not because he thought whoever won should make the nomination, but was to make the appointment a non-issue, thus helping to maintain his coalition of support (conservatives and radicals) in that election.  Plus, the Senate was not in session at the time.

Kamala Harris, apparently, avoided responding to questions almost as much as Mike Pence did; she just did it with more flair.

Harris looked more poised and cheerful, for sure.

But Harris had an unforeseen challenge: nobody prepared her to debate a house fly.  By most accounts, the fly won.

***

In a video-conference meeting yesterday with my boss' boss (and a couple others - all women), she commented at the end that I was "uncharacteristically quite" during the meeting.  (A coworker was well prepared and I added only one point in the 15 minute discussion.)  I responded, after a moment's silence: "I watched the debate last night.  I was reminded on how not to act."  That got the three women talking!
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 09, 2020, 03:42:14 PM
I must admit I was annoyed by how Pence did not know how to shut up when his time ran out. Perhaps they should have a countdown clock for the debaters.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on October 09, 2020, 04:21:21 PM
Abe Lincoln's reasons for not nominating a Supreme Court justice just before the election was not because he thought whoever won should make the nomination, but was to make the appointment a non-issue, thus helping to maintain his coalition of support (conservatives and radicals) in that election.  Plus, the Senate was not in session at the time.


Good summary.  It should be noted also that Lincoln submitted his nomination that day after the Senate reconvened in December.  Consequently, the old Senate approved his nominee.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Florifulgurator on October 10, 2020, 01:48:12 AM
Biggest U.S. medical journal editorial:

Quote
[...] When it comes to the response to the largest public health crisis of our time, our current political leaders have demonstrated that they are dangerously incompetent. We should not abet them and enable the deaths of thousands more Americans by allowing them to keep their jobs.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2029812

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ktb on October 10, 2020, 04:01:00 AM
538 national polling gives Biden a 10 percentage point lead over Trump.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on October 10, 2020, 04:41:57 AM
FBI/DHS: Government Election Systems Face Threat From Active Zerologon Exploits
https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/10/feds-say-active-exploits-of-critical-zerologon-bug-threaten-elections-orgs/

The FBI and the cybersecurity arm of the Department of Homeland Security said they have detected hackers exploiting a critical Windows vulnerability against state and local governments and that in some cases the attacks are being used to breach networks used to support elections.

Members of unspecific APTs—the abbreviation for advanced persistent threats—are exploiting the Windows vulnerability dubbed Zerologon. It gives attackers who already have a toehold on a vulnerable network access to the all-powerful domain controllers that administrators use to allocate new accounts and manage existing ones.

To gain initial access, the attackers are exploiting separate vulnerabilities in firewalls, VPNs, and other products from companies including Juniper, Pulse Secure, Citrix NetScaler, and Palo Alto Networks. All of the vulnerabilities—Zerologon included—have received patches, but as evidenced by Friday’s warning from the DHS and FBI, not everyone has installed them. The inaction is putting governments and elections systems at all levels at risk.

Officials wrote:

... This recent malicious activity has often, but not exclusively, been directed at federal and state, local, tribal, and territorial (SLTT) government networks. Although it does not appear these targets are being selected because of their proximity to elections information, there may be some risk to elections information housed on government networks.

CISA is aware of some instances where this activity resulted in unauthorized access to elections support systems; however, CISA has no evidence to date that integrity of elections data has been compromised. There are steps that election officials, their supporting SLTT IT staff, and vendors can take to help defend against this malicious cyber activity.


https://us-cert.cisa.gov/ncas/alerts/aa20-283a
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on October 10, 2020, 02:29:04 PM
538 national polling gives Biden a 10 percentage point lead over Trump.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

It will come down to a few states.  The big prize is Florida; if Biden carries the state, it is all over.  Otherwise, the election will come down to AZ, NC, MN, WI, and PA.  Biden is doing polling well in all these states, but it could get interesting if Trump wins AZ, NC and PA - the most likely states.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 10, 2020, 02:56:09 PM
Well, I hear there will be no debate on October 15.
Maybe October 22 and 29?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 10, 2020, 05:02:14 PM
Maybe the 22.  Trump suggested it but Biden said a debate on the 29th would not happen.

My guess is there will be no more debates.  The Donald wants chaos (like the first debate) and the Commission and Joe want something more traditional.  I don't think it would serve the interests of either candidate to back down, although the Commission might.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 11, 2020, 01:38:48 PM
Joe Biden versus “democratic norms”
http://edwardfeser.blogspot.com/2020/10/joe-biden-versus-democratic-norms.html#more
Quote
No one who claims to favor Biden over Trump on the grounds of protecting “democratic norms” can, at this point, be speaking in good faith.  They are either culpably deceiving themselves or cynically trying to deceive others.  Packing the Supreme Court would be as radical a violation of “democratic norms” as any president has ever attempted.  It would destroy the independence of the judiciary, making of the court a dictatorship for the party in power.  Yet Biden and Harris persistently refuse to say whether they favor court-packing.  Biden has now said that voters “don’t deserve” to know his position on this absolutely crucial issue before the election – even though he acknowledges that “it’s a great question” and says he doesn’t blame people for asking it!  Can you imagine the hysteria that would ensue if Trump gave such a lunatic answer to a question that momentous?  This is reason enough not to vote for Biden, whether or not you vote for Trump.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: greylib on October 11, 2020, 05:48:35 PM
As a UK citizen, I don't have any real right to comment, but I can't let this pass. Tom's quote seemed unlikely as it stood, so I checked it out:
Quote from: Forbes
KTNV reporter Ross DiMattei said court-packing is the “number one thing I’ve been asked about from viewers in the past couple days,” to which Biden responded “well, you’ve been asked by the viewers, who are probably Republicans, who don’t want me continuing to talk about what they’re doing to the court right now.”

“Well sir, don’t the voters deserve to know-” DiMattei began to ask, as Biden interjected “no they don’t deserve,” before asserting “I’m not gonna play [Trump’s] game… he’d love that to be the discussion instead of what he’s doing now.”

The comment comes after Biden said during a trip to Arizona on Thursday that he would not reveal his stance on the issue until after the election because it would grab headlines and draw focus away from Republicans’ efforts to confirm Trump appointee Amy Coney Barrett.
It seems to me that the voters deserve to know a lot of things: is Trump on the hook to a bunch of shady foreign creditors? Is he still Covid-infectious? [He says he isn't; his doctor says he isn't; but he's managed to get his doctors to say some crazy things over the years.] And so on. The "voters deserve to know" meme can be played by both sides.

The Supreme Court "gotcha" question is hypothetical. No point in discussing it until the Senate manages to put Barrett on to the Supreme Court.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 11, 2020, 06:12:23 PM
It doesn't seem to me that Democrats try to game the system less than Republicans, or vice versa. Instead, it looks like it gets worse each time there is a new Administration, whether that administration is Republican or Democrat.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: oren on October 11, 2020, 06:21:27 PM
Quote
Can you imagine the hysteria that would ensue if Trump gave such a lunatic answer to a question that momentous?
Do you mean, for example, the question of whether he will accept the result of the election? A rather momentuous issue I would say.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on October 11, 2020, 06:34:50 PM
Tom is once again engaging in false equivalence

His behavior here and elsewhere is verging on that of a troll
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 11, 2020, 07:10:18 PM
Trump says we will have to see what happens to see if he will concede. Hillary tells Biden not to concede for any reason.
Dems don't want to concede. Reps don't want to concede. There is nothing false about a lot of people saying "not my president" when Trump won, after Fox News always called President Obama "Mr. Obama" during his administration.
Most of my life people who lost an election of their candidate accepted that loss as a fact. That is being increasingly called into question by members of both parties.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on October 11, 2020, 08:06:56 PM
More false equivalence

HRC is talking about putting up a rigorous legal fight

Trump and co is talking about violence in the streets, illegal disruptions at election polls, and all sorts of other chicanery, including a literal refusal to commit to a peaceful transition of power

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/517901-trump-refuses-to-commit-to-peaceful-transition-of-power

So one is all about violence, real and threatened, and one is about following legal processes.

Yet you, who claim to be so vigorously against all forms of violence, are bending over backwards to portray these two very different positions as basically equivalent...one has to wonder why
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: oren on October 11, 2020, 08:16:59 PM
It is indeed false equivalence Tom. A private person not liking the election result and a president saying he might not accept the result.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: SteveMDFP on October 11, 2020, 09:18:45 PM
In the US, you can now get threats just for having the wrong yard sign:

Letter left at Frederick home in apparent attempt to intimidate voters
https://www.wbaltv.com/article/frederick-letter-left-at-home-apparent-attempt-to-intimidate-voters/34304969 (https://www.wbaltv.com/article/frederick-letter-left-at-home-apparent-attempt-to-intimidate-voters/34304969)

"The letter warned, "If you are a Biden-Harris supporter, you will be targeted. We have a list of homes by your election signs. We will not comply or give anything up, especially our guns."

The writer threatens to shoot and kill former Arizona Rep. Gabby Giffords, who was shot and wounded in 2011. She's now a gun control advocate.

The writer threatens to beat Biden and rape Harris and execute both on national TV."
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Paddy on October 11, 2020, 10:50:41 PM
To those on this forum from America: please be kind and respectful to those on the other side of the political divide, whether your guy wins or loses. At the end of the day, politics isn't worth doing wrong by your neighbour. 
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 11, 2020, 11:09:47 PM
Quote
Fox News always called President Obama "Mr. Obama" during his administration.
Lets do a fact check:
Fox News Halftime Report
Published January 10, 2017
Mr. Obama would like to explain... (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mr-obama-would-like-to-explain)
"Obama" occurs 24 times in the article: three times with "Mr.", once with "Barack", once with "President", six times as "ObamaCare" and 13 times as just "Obama".

Incidentally, "Bush" shows up three times, once as "George W. Bush" and twice as "Bush".

Published November 24, 2014
Obama: Americans want 'new car smell' in 2016 (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/obama-americans-want-new-car-smell-in-2016)
"Obama" occurs 9 times in the article: once with "President", once with "President Barack", seven times just "Obama" and never with a "Mr."

Therefore, I'll say that Fox News sometimes identified President Obama as "Mr."
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 11, 2020, 11:34:07 PM
Well, the Right has almost all the guns, allegedly.
If Biden wins, do you think they will attempt violence? Have to do it without me, I don't have a gun and could not shoot at a person if I did.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: interstitial on October 11, 2020, 11:42:11 PM
Quote
Fox News always called President Obama "Mr. Obama" during his administration.
Lets do a fact check:
Fox News Halftime Report
Published January 10, 2017
Mr. Obama would like to explain... (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mr-obama-would-like-to-explain)
"Obama" occurs 24 times in the article: three times with "Mr.", once with "Barack", once with "President", six times as "ObamaCare" and 13 times as just "Obama".

Incidentally, "Bush" shows up three times, once as "George W. Bush" and twice as "Bush".

Published November 24, 2014
Obama: Americans want 'new car smell' in 2016 (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/obama-americans-want-new-car-smell-in-2016)
"Obama" occurs 9 times in the article: once with "President", once with "President Barack", seven times just "Obama" and never with a "Mr."

Therefore, I'll say that Fox News sometimes identified President Obama as "Mr."
Fox news just called trump Mr Trump not sure what that means;
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 12, 2020, 12:16:18 AM
The Supreme Court (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) started with 6 justices.
Decreased to 5 in 1801 (effective upon retirements, etc.), but returned to 6 in 1802 before it actually dropped.
Then 7 in 1807, 9 in 1837, and 10 in 1863.
Decreased to 7 in 1866 (effective upon retirements, etc.), but only dropped to 8 justices, as it was increased to 9 in 1869 where it has remained.
In 1937 Roosevelt (FDR) tried to increase the number to 'up to 15' (dependent on the age of existing justices) but Congress didn't go along with this idea of his.  (But with 3 terms plus a few months of his 4th term as president, he nominated 8 of the associate justices and the one 'survivor' from a pre-FDR court was elevated to chief justice by him.)

So, "packing" and "unpacking" the court has been done several times, sometimes with overt political intentions.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 12, 2020, 12:22:16 AM
A suitable response Joe Biden might use, with regard to questions about packing the Supreme Court, was offered by a Minnesotan on Electoral-Vote.com (https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct11.html#item-1):
Quote
The president can't "pack the court." According to the Constitution, the president can only nominate justices when openings occur. The current number of nine is not in the Constitution, it's a result of a law passed by Congress. If Congress passes another law that increases that number, then President Biden would fulfill his Constitutional duty and nominate justices to fill any openings. But I promise you, a Democratic-held congress will only pass such a bill if the American people support it, which may well happen if the court starts legislating from the bench. If the Court restricts the inalienable Constitutional rights of our citizens on issues like abortion, gay marriage, and voting, the American people will demand action. In that regard, the answer to your question will ultimately be answered by the current justices of the Supreme Court.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 12, 2020, 01:37:26 AM
Suppose presidents could pack the court. FDR appoints 6. Eisenhower appoints 12. Kennedy appoints 24. Nixon appoints 48. Carter points 96. Reagan appoints 192. Clinton appoints 384. Bush Jr appoints 768. Obama appoints 1,536. Trump appoints 3,072. Biden appoints 6,144. By 2021 the SCOTUS is meeting in Yankee Stadium.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 12, 2020, 02:06:58 AM
From the September 22 Electoral-Vote.com (https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Phone/Sep22.html) came this
Quote
... Christopher Jon Sprigman, writing for Slate, proposes (https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/09/supreme-court-packing-alternatives.html) that Court-packing is not only politically difficult and risky, it's also unnecessary. He directs our attention to Article III, Section 2 of the Constitution, which reads:
Quote
In all Cases affecting Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, and those in which a State shall be a Party, the Supreme Court shall have original Jurisdiction. In all the other Cases before mentioned, the Supreme Court shall have appellate Jurisdiction, both as to Law and Fact, with such Exceptions, and under such Regulations as the Congress shall make.
In other words, there is a constitutional basis for significantly clipping the Supreme Court's wings when it comes to judicial review. And since judicial review itself has no constitutional basis, having been claimed by John Marshall by fiat in Marbury v. Madison, Congress would surely triumph if they tried it. This is not the sort of thing that would excite the Democratic base, but if doing it ends up saving the things that liberals care about (Obamacare, abortion rights, voting rights legislation, etc.), then the base will presumably come around. (Z)
In support of what Tom just wrote, Sprigman wrote in his article,
Quote
Another problem with court packing is that we’re not playing one-move chess here: there will be a tit-for-tat response.
Therefore the brilliance of a legislative solution to end the Supreme Court's 'fiddling' tendencies.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 12, 2020, 11:27:39 AM
The failure of the Constitution to explicitly numerate the number of seats in the SCOTUS is just another proof that it is a human document, not a Divine one.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 12, 2020, 12:02:10 PM
Americans Increasingly Believe Violence is Justified if the Other Side Wins
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/01/political-violence-424157?fbclid=IwAR3NqOZVRs1gF5nO0KT-FZNQo-fk9aJb1xs_kR3MW1GpBN3NkGwS7Z8umAY
Quote
At the presidential debate this week, the Republican candidate voiced his concern about political violence—left-wing political violence. And the Democratic candidate likewise voiced concern about political violence—right-wing political violence.

They were both right.
There is a note that the exact statistics in the article are being updated (sorry it took me so long to find this article) but for the stats they had at the time, for example:

Quote
These numbers are even higher among the most ideological partisans. Of Democrats who identify as “very liberal,” 26 percent said there would be “a great deal” of justification for violence if their candidate loses the presidency compared to 7 percent of those identifying as simply “liberal.” Of Republicans who identify as “very conservative,” 16 percent said they believe there would be “a great deal” of justification for violence if the GOP candidate loses compared to 7 percent of those identifying as simply “conservative.” This means the ideological extremes of each party are two to four times more apt to see violence as justified than their party’s mainstream members.
These percentages represent millions of Americans, on both sides of the divide. If even a few of these carry out violence it could trigger more violence. As they conclude:
Quote
We do not pull this alarm lightly. The decisions we make over the next few months are hugely consequential. If we fall into a cycle of violence, the consequences for America’s future as a democracy will be dire.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on October 12, 2020, 02:12:29 PM
Belief in what would be justified is a very hypothetical question

As you have pointed out, it's the right that has most of the guns. So if anyone intends to do severe violence, they are the ones with the capacity. And not only that, but they have been the ones, white supremacists in particular, who have done nearly all the actual violence wrt shootings.

And you failed to point out that the article you cited had a post script basically saying that the figures were wrong and overstated:

Quote
Since this article published, we’ve received new polling data that strongly suggests the trend is not as large as originally thought. On the question of justifying violence, new data from the same source as the 2017 to 2019 trend suggests there has not been a significant shift in attitudes since December 2019...

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on October 12, 2020, 03:16:30 PM
Yes, more gun-related violence has been perpetuated by the right.  The left prefers other means.  Neither is acceptable.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 12, 2020, 03:35:58 PM
Just curious, Walrus:
What means do the Left use?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on October 12, 2020, 06:02:06 PM
Just curious, Walrus:
What means do the Left use?

While some gun violence does exist, there is a greater frequency of arson, looting, and direct physical encounters. 
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 12, 2020, 06:09:48 PM
Specifically, the means that are not acceptable.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 12, 2020, 06:19:11 PM
Anybody vote and/or campaign for Howie Hawkins (Green)? Why or why not?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on October 13, 2020, 02:07:50 AM
Who knew, doubling down on Hilary 2016 strategy was a losing hand?

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html

White non-college voter numerical lead, 2016 vs 2020 early voting

PA: +13K vs +17K
OH: +9K vs +22K
MI: +20K vs +125K
WI: +29K vs +95K
MN: +15K vs +64K
NC: +8K vs -64K
VA: +3k vs -175K
TX: +2K to -17K
GA: -2K to -120K

While the swing to Trump has been +238K in the first five states the swing to Biden has been +388K in the latter four states. This is probably enough to flip MN to red and possibly enough to flip NC to blue. TX is not going to flip, and the chance of GA flipping is also minimal though it is perhaps barely plausible.

But more importantly this shows that even WITH the likelihood of maintaining or higher national turnout vis a vis 2016 and the popular vote, Biden's gains are coming in states where he would have already won or, worse, where he WILL NOT WIN.

The early voting numbers are, IMO, total affirmation that a Trump landslide is impending at the electoral college even IF Biden maintains or improves on H's popular vote margin!

The turnout in NV and NM is less indicative but also leaning Trump IMO, it will be interesting to see the vote changes numerically vs 2016 in states like NY and HI as well though I suspect the seismic shifts underway in both of those electorates, if they are indeed underway as I believe, will not be revealed until Election Night.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Paddy on October 13, 2020, 02:34:12 PM
What happens if:

(a) Biden wins the popular vote by a much wider margin than Hilary (eg with the 10% gap shown by the polling average, so maybe 52% : 42% with the rest third party) but Trump edges to victory in the electoral college? Beyond the obvious outcome of a second term of this chaos, a lot of people are going to be left feeling thoroughly disenfranchised.

Or (b) Trump appears to be winning early on on election night, but Biden is the one to end up with a narrow victory as the postal votes come in? Similar issue of the sentiment of disenfranchisement, just on the other side.

Or (c) First (a) appears to be happening, then (b) as the eventual outcome?

None of these seem all that statistically improbable.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: greylib on October 13, 2020, 02:49:02 PM
What happens if:

(a) Biden wins the popular vote by a much wider margin than Hilary (eg with the 10% gap shown by the polling average, so maybe 52% : 42% with the rest third party) but Trump edges to victory in the electoral college? Beyond the obvious outcome of a second term of this chaos, a lot of people are going to be left feeling thoroughly disenfranchised.

Or (b) Trump appears to be winning early on on election night, but Biden is the one to end up with a narrow victory as the postal votes come in? Similar issue of the sentiment of disenfranchisement, just on the other side.

Or (c) First (a) appears to be happening, then (b) as the eventual outcome?

None of these seem all that statistically improbable.
Whatever happens, the lawyers are going to make a lot of money. In fact, they're probably already making it, with both parties playing "what-if".
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 13, 2020, 03:29:41 PM
Back in 2016, I voted for Trump but expected Hillary to win.
So I watched the election on Fox News, since they expected Trump to win and I wanted the schadenfreude of seeing their cognitive dissonance and meltdown.
If I had known Trump would win, I would have watched MSNBC for the mirror image reason.
This year I don't even have cable, and I don't expect to know the winner on Tuesday (or Wednesday, or Thursday, or...). I will probably find out by reading this thread, if my cousin doesn't tell me in our daily morning phone call.
EDIT:
Paddy - my personal daydream (or nightmare) is seeing the election decided by a faithless elector.
That would set the weasels loose in the henhouse!
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 13, 2020, 04:56:17 PM
Don't Let the Media Win This Election
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/10/12/dont_let_the_media_win_this_election.html
Quote
Pundits often claim that the 2020 election will be a referendum on Donald Trump, but that is not the case. It should now be apparent — if it wasn’t already — that the upcoming election is a referendum on the media, and their dangerous role as self-appointed arbiters of the truth. And if the media wins, Katie bar the door.

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 13, 2020, 06:26:46 PM
The U.S. Constitution sort of makes the press the "arbiters of the truth."

First Amendment:
Quote
Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.
Read more at Constitution Annotated (https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/amdt1_3_1/).

From Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution):
'First' draft of this amendment read:
Quote
The civil rights of none shall be abridged on account of religious belief or worship, nor shall any national religion be established, nor shall the full and equal rights of conscience be in any manner, or on any pretext, infringed. The people shall not be deprived or abridged of their right to speak, to write, or to publish their sentiments; and the freedom of the press, as one of the great bulwarks of liberty, shall be inviolable. The people shall not be restrained from peaceably assembling and consulting for their common good; nor from applying to the Legislature by petitions, or remonstrances, for redress of their grievances.
Note: "as one of the great bulwarks of liberty."  There wasn't any debate in that first Congress about this wording, apparently; they just wanted it to be shorter.

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on October 13, 2020, 06:45:42 PM
Wal wrote: "...arson, looting..."

You do know that the guy that started the arson in Minneapolis was a rightwing white supremacist, right?

And looting is not a political act. It is an act of opportunity, when there is chaos, whites, blacks and others, especially in poor areas, take the opportunity to get some, often much needed, supplies.

The term 'looting' itself, by the way, has been shown to be racially loaded, since during Katrina reporters called it 'looting' when blacks were going into damages stores to get supplies, but called it 'resourcefulness' when whites were filmed doing the same thing
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on October 13, 2020, 06:49:26 PM
As far as who is trying to 'game the system' more, and who is willing to use violence to do so, note:

https://www.businessinsider.com/armed-groups-planning-to-monitor-polling-sites-on-election-day-2020-10

Quote
Far-right groups are planning to patrol polling sites on Election Day, some of them armed, causing experts to worry about the possibility of violent clashes and voter intimidation...

A QAnon-affiliated group has also been talking on Telegram, describing "heavily armed MAGA patriots" preparing for Election Day...

Cassie Miller, a senior researcher with the Southern Poverty Law Center, told the Times that "chances are really high that we're going to see militia members, armed groups, or Trump supporters who are armed at the polls."

"Not only are these people willing to participate in voter intimidation, but they're hoping to create this chaotic moment," Miller said. "There's an unwillingness to accept anything but a Trump victory."

By the way, less (directly) violent voter suppression is happening right now, with mostly black voters having to wait in lines for hours to vote early in Georgia. Few people in predominantly white areas have to wait more than a few minutes to vote in the US
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on October 13, 2020, 07:42:52 PM
Wal wrote: "...arson, looting..."

You do know that the guy that started the arson in Minneapolis was a rightwing white supremacist, right?

And looting is not a political act. It is an act of opportunity, when there is chaos, whites, blacks and others, especially in poor areas, take the opportunity to get some, often much needed, supplies.

The term 'looting' itself, by the way, has been shown to be racially loaded, since during Katrina reporters called it 'looting' when blacks were going into damages stores to get supplies, but called it 'resourcefulness' when whites were filmed doing the same thing

No one has a monopoly on arson, looting, or gun violence.  Do you believe that the left is more likely to resort to gun violence than the right?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on October 13, 2020, 09:43:09 PM
Severed Cable Takes Out Virginia Voter Site On Registration Deadline
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/10/severed-cable-takes-out-virginia-voter-site-on-registration-deadline/

Today is the last day to register to vote in the commonwealth of Virginia, so of course the official website for updating or managing voter registration is offline. Unlike in Florida, however, Virginia's site did not crash from high traffic but instead was rendered inaccessible because a vital fiber connecting the state's digital infrastructure was physically cut.

... "A fiber cut near Rt. 10 in Chester near the Commonwealth Enterprise Solutions Center (CESC) is impacting data circuits and virtual private network (VPN) connectivity for multiple Commonwealth agencies," the Virginia Information Technologies Agency wrote in a tweet, adding, "Technicians are on site and working to repair the cut; updates will be provided as work progresses."

https://twitter.com/VITAagency/status/1316000866244218882

The severed cable affects not only voter registration, but also early in-person voting—underway across Virginia since September 18—in some jurisdictions because election officials use network-connected tablets to look up and verify voter information. Several other state systems have also been affected by the outage, including DMV operations, unemployment systems, and Virginia's COVID-19 dashboard and health information.

---------------------------------

Pentagon Leaders Reject Calls for Militarized Election Season
https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2020/10/pentagon-leaders-reject-calls-militarized-election-season/169195/

Senior Pentagon leaders are seeking to tamp down fears and demands that the military will be called upon to handle any election-related chaos in November and beyond.

The D.C. National Guard has received no requests from other federal agencies related to security or potential unrest surrounding the 2020 election, Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy said on Tuesday.

“We support law enforcement,” Army Secretary McCarthy said Tuesday. ”We don’t police American streets.”

McCarthy’s remarks come just days after Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley insisted in an interview with NPR that there is “zero” role for the military in the event the Nov. 3 election results are contested.

Concerns over President Trump’s militarized response to the protests have oxidized with related concerns that there may be civil unrest no matter what the outcome of the Nov. 3 election. Trump supporters, some armed and dressed as paramilitary militia, have appeared at protests nationwide. During the first presidential debate, Trump called on supporters to act as election watchers next month, prompting fears of voter intimidation and violent standoffs at polling places. Last week, the Washington Post reported that Atlas Aegis, a private military contractor, was recruiting special operations forces veterans to conduct election security at Minnesota polls against the wishes of state law enforcement.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/private-security-minnesota-election/2020/10/09/89766964-0987-11eb-991c-be6ead8c4018_story.html
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on October 14, 2020, 12:32:59 PM
US Militias Forge Alliances With Conspiracy Theorists Ahead of Election
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/14/armed-militias-conspiracy-theorists-anti-vaxxers-red-pill-expo

Armed militia groups are forging alliances in the final stages of the US presidential election with conspiracy theorists and anti-vaxxers who claim the coronavirus pandemic is a hoax, intensifying concerns that trouble could be brewing ahead of election day.

Leading advocates of anti-government and anti-science propaganda came together at the weekend, joined by the founder of one of the largest militia groups. The rare connection occurred at the Red Pill Expo, a conference convened on Jekyll Island, Georgia – a symbolic location as it is the birthplace of the US Federal Reserve, a popular bogey figure for conspiracy theorists

The summit, staged indoors in front of a packed and maskless audience of about 350, was headlined by Stewart Rhodes, president of the Oath Keepers. The militia, which turned up menacingly at several Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests over the summer and has acted as a vigilante squad at numerous Donald Trump campaign rallies, has links to 25,000 current or past members, mostly military or police veterans.

Rhodes aroused the crowd of “Red Pillers”, as they called themselves, with incendiary language. He denounced BLM as a “communist front” and encouraged attendees to seek training in firearms and militia activity as the election approaches.

“You are your own self-defense,” he said. “You must organize yourselves in the next 30 days in your towns and counties. We have members in every state in the union and we are standing them up right now.”

Rhodes said the turbulence around “radical left” protests had brought “a flood of special warfare operatives into the Oath Keepers”. He cited former navy Seals and special force personnel from Fort Bragg, the US army garrison in North Carolina.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on October 14, 2020, 08:51:03 PM
"Do you believe that the left is more likely to resort to gun violence than the right?"

No. What an odd question. Perhaps you missed the study that found that, at least up to this summer, right wing white suppremacists were responsible for hundreds of deadly shootings over the last couple decades, while 'antifa' was responsible for none.

Since then, there has indeed been one shooting by a self identified 'antifa' activist. But to take the fact that there are deadly shootings from both sides as evidence that both are equally responsible, in spite of the vast disparity in actual shooting, is again participating in false equivalence.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on October 14, 2020, 11:35:04 PM
"Do you believe that the left is more likely to resort to gun violence than the right?"

No. What an odd question. Perhaps you missed the study that found that, at least up to this summer, right wing white suppremacists were responsible for hundreds of deadly shootings over the last couple decades, while 'antifa' was responsible for none.

Since then, there has indeed been one shooting by a self identified 'antifa' activist. But to take the fact that there are deadly shootings from both sides as evidence that both are equally responsible, in spite of the vast disparity in actual shooting, is again participating in false equivalence.
The left has ongoing violent riots in Portland and Seattle and held violent riots in many other cities including my own for much of this summer. Many were shot, some were killed. A Trump supporter was shot by an Antifa security guard the other day in Denver.

So.... pretending the violence is one sided is kind of ridiculous especially when the majority is actually coming from the left.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on October 14, 2020, 11:42:09 PM
"Do you believe that the left is more likely to resort to gun violence than the right?"

No. What an odd question. Perhaps you missed the study that found that, at least up to this summer, right wing white suppremacists were responsible for hundreds of deadly shootings over the last couple decades, while 'antifa' was responsible for none.

Since then, there has indeed been one shooting by a self identified 'antifa' activist. But to take the fact that there are deadly shootings from both sides as evidence that both are equally responsible, in spite of the vast disparity in actual shooting, is again participating in false equivalence.

I agree.  That is why I posed that question in response to your previous post.  Just because a right winger started a fire does not make both sides equal in that respect either.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on October 15, 2020, 05:07:19 PM
This is getting ridiculous, so I should probably quit. You claimed above that violence on the left takes the form of arson and looting, but you have provided no evidence of it.

(Looting is largely a non-political act, and too many people were involved, and not enough caught, to be able to accurately characterize their political dispositions and motivations anyway, so I will set that one aside for now)

While there is definitely a number of arsonists who are self-described white supremacists and boogaloo boys, there is no evidence of people with a similarly strong, developed leftist ideology who have been starting fires in Minneapolis that I am aware of. Just young kids mad at the cops. Anger is not an ideology.

(And I note, again, that only one person accused of arson in Minneapolis was actually from Minneapolis...we did not burn down our own city, as many seem to assume)

So there is lots of evidence that people with rightwing and white-racist ideologies have been shooting (and plan to shoot, and kidnap, and assassinate...) a lot of people, and that they have started a number of major fires during riots, there is not much evidence that a lot of that kind of violence is coming from leftist ideologues.

So, if you claim to be against violence, please join Tom in strongly condemning right wing violence, since that is where most of it is coming from 

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on October 15, 2020, 08:39:37 PM
I do join Tom in condemning right wing violence.  I also condemn the growing trend of left wing violence.  I do not pawn it off as just people venting anger.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/09/16/us/far-left-social-media-violent-messages-trnd/index.html
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 16, 2020, 12:45:28 AM
Yes, left wing violence (what there is of it) is abhorrent.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ktb on October 16, 2020, 05:07:36 AM
Has anybody watched the town halls?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on October 16, 2020, 05:13:57 PM
Yes, left wing violence (what there is of it) is abhorrent.

Agreed.  Many Americans fear threatened from both extremes.

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/09/29/america-speaks-are-they-concerned-about-threat-dom
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 20, 2020, 01:53:11 AM
There is a poll for election watchers ...
Recent polls (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/) show Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 6-13 points (I've heard of bigger spreads).  What will be the spread after all most ballots are counted? 

The more people voting (in this poll) the better!  No nationality excluded.  No incarceration record too severe.
Click on the bold link above ("Quote ...")
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 20, 2020, 09:22:07 PM
McRaven Endorses Biden (https://politicalwire.com/2020/10/20/mcraven-endorses-biden/)
October 20, 2020 at 3:10 pm EDT in Taegan Goddard's Political Wire (https://politicalwire.com/)

Retired Navy Adm. William McRaven explains in the Wall Street Journal (https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-will-make-america-lead-again-11603127677?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTjJaak1qTmpOMlJpWldaaCIsInQiOiJ0akQwRFN5cGpJN3dXQnE1RVljNW5ud2pLclVXeU0ybzN6ejdLUHBzbmR2MEdTQWZqNzZqcVZWWDFKcGVDKzlpeTNUUEdmZ3paV0luYU9pK2hKMkF4dHlYa3ZyTThmeHRMTmxOb3BcL1NKVDdqRzR1RVU5OWRGZjJPc1wva3dhYlBwIn0%3D) why he voted for Joe Biden.
Quote
This week I went to the polls in Texas. Truth be told, I am a pro-life, pro-Second Amendment, small-government, strong-defense and a national-anthem-standing conservative. But, I also believe that black lives matter, that the Dreamers deserve a path to citizenship, that diversity and inclusion are essential to our national success, that education is the great equalizer, that climate change is real and that the First Amendment is the cornerstone of our democracy. Most important, I believe that America must lead in the world with courage, conviction and a sense of honor and humility.

If we remain indifferent to our role in the world, if we retreat from our obligation to our citizens and our allies and if we fail to choose the right leader, then we will pay the highest price for our neglect and shortsightedness.
Hear hear!
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 20, 2020, 09:24:40 PM
Quote
Utah Candidates Appear Together In Ad

October 20, 2020 at 2:20 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 52 Comments

Utah gubernatorial candidates Spencer Cox (R) and Chris Peterson (D) appeared together in a joint ad to call for civility among voters.
This is the very next article in Political wire. Hear, Hear!
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on October 26, 2020, 07:55:55 AM
Republicans closely resemble autocratic parties in Hungary and Turkey - study
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/26/republican-party-autocratic-hungary-turkey-study-trump
https://www.v-dem.net/en/data/data/v-party-dataset/

Swedish university finds ‘dramatic shift’ in GOP under Trump, shunning democratic norms and encouraging violence

The Republican party has become dramatically more illiberal in the past two decades and now more closely resembles ruling parties in autocratic societies than its former centre-right equivalents in Europe, according to a new international study.

Report: https://www.v-dem.net/media/filer_public/b6/55/b6553f85-5c5d-45ec-be63-a48a2abe3f62/briefing_paper_9.pdf

In a significant shift since 2000, the GOP has taken to demonising and encouraging violence against its opponents, adopting attitudes and tactics comparable to ruling nationalist parties in Hungary, India, Poland and Turkey.

The shift has both led to and been driven by the rise of Donald Trump.

By contrast the Democratic party has changed little in its attachment to democratic norms, and in that regard has remained similar to centre-right and centre-left parties in western Europe. Their principal difference is the approach to the economy.

Anna Lührmann, V-Dem’s deputy director, said the Republican transformation had been “certainly the most dramatic shift in an established democracy”.

V-Dem’s 'illiberalism index' shows Republican party has retreated from upholding democratic norms

The study, published on Monday, shows the party has followed a similar trajectory to Fidesz, which under Viktor Orbán has evolved from a liberal youth movement into an authoritarian party that has made Hungary the first non-democracy in the European Union.

India’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been transformed in similar ways under Narendra Modi, as has the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the Law and Justice party in Poland. Trump and his administration have sought to cultivate close ties to the leadership of those countries.

“We’ve seen similar shifts in parties in other countries where the quality of democracy has declined in recent years, where democracy has been eroding,” Lührmann said. “It fits very well into the pattern of parties that erode democracy once they’re in power.”

“The demonisation of opponents – that’s clearly a factor that has shifted a lot when it comes to the Republican party, as well as the encouragement of political violence,” she said, adding that the change has been driven in large part from the top.

“We have several quotes from Trump, that show how he has encouraged supporters to use violence against either journalists or political opponents.”

(https://static.politico.com/dims4/default/c95863e/2147483647/resize/500x%3E/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2Fd5%2F86%2F23e8ed3e4648a29c0e328ab59e73%2F11-bill-bramhall-tribune.jpg)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 27, 2020, 07:50:56 PM
Sit with this ad for a few seconds ...
https://youtu.be/Pre0OFtCqis

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on October 27, 2020, 07:56:11 PM
That's a call that has happened literally hundreds of thousands of times in the US, almost all preventable.

Meanwhile:

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/10/white-nationalist-group-training-for-violence-as-trumps-defeat-grows-likelier-report/


White nationalist group ‘training for violence’ as Trump’s defeat grows likelier
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 28, 2020, 11:45:15 AM
Mike Snyder has fooled me not once, but twice, so take any details from this with a grain of salt.
However, he cites a lot of third party sources in this article, and I think this time he might be right.

How long will it take to count all the votes?
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/how-long-will-it-take-to-count-all-the-votes
Quote
Personally, I am anticipating that this election is going to be a colossal mess.  As I have been documenting on The Most Important News, voting anomalies have already been popping up all over the nation, and I think that counting all of the mail-in ballots is going to take much more time than anticipated.

And any legal battles over the counting of the votes will just make the process even more painful.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 28, 2020, 12:20:13 PM
Ron Conte is a somewhat heterodox (three comings of Christ?) amateur Catholic theologian. He, however, has tried to list every possible outcome of this election. Some of them are rather...interesting (in the Chinese sense). I would have thought some of them to be science fantasy (not even science fiction) a few years ago, but I can't totally write any of them off, after all that has happened this year. Take a look:
https://ronconte.com/2020/10/27/every-election-scenario-u-s-president-november-2020-election/
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: oren on October 28, 2020, 12:52:57 PM
I am afraid a combination of 3 (Biden wins clearly after a few days) and 6 (Trump refuses to step down and calls on SCOTUS) will happen. And that is the good scenario, in the bad one Trump wins clearly.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 28, 2020, 01:26:02 PM
3 is likely, but Trump winning a landslide is the least likely (I won’t say impossible for anything anymore, however).
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 28, 2020, 02:51:35 PM
Residents of Puerto Rico Will Vote 'Yes' or 'No' on Statehood (https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2020/10/22/residents-of-puerto-rico-will-vote-on-statehood)
Quote
  • It’s the sixth time in history in which residents of Puerto Rico will be asked about the island’s relationship with the United States.
  • This time, it’s a simple yes or no question: “Should Puerto Rico be admitted immediately into the Union as a State?”
But different politicos have different opinions about how to proceed...

The requirements  (https://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/142/what-are-the-conditions-required-for-a-territory-to-become-part-of-united-states)are:
Quote
  • The proposed state votes on the matter.
  • The proposed state officially petitions Congress for Statehood.
  • The proposed state must make sure it is following the constitution for its government.
  • Both the Senate and the House vote with a majority to accept the state.
  • The president signs the bill.
I think the third item might take a while - it may require a separate commonwealth vote, but I'm not certain.
At statehood, they would immediately get 2 senators (appointed by the governor until the next federal election - at that election, one would be elected to a 2 or 4 year term and the other a 4 or 6 year term, to be part of different 'classes' and to mesh with the existing '1/3 up for election each federal election' rule) and about 5 seats in the House of Representatives (to be elected in special elections, per districts designed in accordance with the new state constitution).  Also at statehood, the citizens would start accruing a federal income tax liability.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 28, 2020, 05:34:54 PM
Any chance of state-ifying the District of Columbia, Tor?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on October 28, 2020, 08:41:31 PM
Election 2020 Chatter On Twitter Busy With Bots, Conspiracy Theorists, Study Finds
https://phys.org/news/2020-10-election-chatter-twitter-busy-bots.html

(https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/2020/election2020.jpg)
USC scientists analyzed tweets from June 20 to Sept. 9, 2020, and found that right-leaning bots were responsible for 20% of the tweets on certain conspiracy theories, including QAnon, so-called "gate" conspiracies, as well as misinformation about COVID-19.

Bots and conspiracy theorists have infested the Twitter chatter around the upcoming U.S. presidential election, USC researchers have found.

Looking at more than 240 million election-related tweets, the study found that thousands of automated accounts, known as bots, had posted tweets about President Donald Trump, his Democratic opponent former Vice President Joe Biden and both their campaigns.

Most of these bots were promoting right-leaning political conspiracies like QAnon. Even though the bots are believed to have been responsible for a few million of the tweets, they likely reached hundreds of thousands of Twitter users.

... "I think the most important finding here is that bots exacerbate the consumption of content within the same political chamber, so it increases the effect of echo chambers or the salience of those tweets."

The bots were identified by Botometer, a machine learning-based tool developed by USC and University of Indiana scientists to identify likely bots based on their tweeting behavior and several other characteristics.

Throughout their analysis, the research team identified significant differences between bots and humans and the type of election content they tweet and retweet on the social media platform.

Highlights of the study included:

Right-leaning accounts significantly outnumbered their left-leaning counterparts by 4-to-1 among bots and by 2-to-1 among humans.

Users that shared or retweeted news from right-leaning media platforms were almost 12 times more likely to share conspiracy narratives than users that shared or retweeted content from left-leaning media (25% vs. 2%).

The conspiracy theories that the researchers traced in tweets included the far-right conspiracy QAnon, as well as conspiracies such as "pizzagate."

They also studied which users were likely to share politically biased COVID-19 conspiracy narratives about the origins of the coronavirus or unsupported claims about treatments for the disease.

About 13% of all users sharing conspiracy narratives were suspected bots. The proportion of users tweeting about QAnon were most concentrated in certain states: Alaska, Idaho, Kentucky, Mississippi, Montana and Oklahoma.

Just 4% of the bots shared news from left-leaning and centrist media outlets, including The Washington Post, The New York Times, Los Angeles Times, ABC News, BBC, CNN and others.

About 20% of users that shared content from right-leaning media (e.g. Breitbart, OANN and Infowars) were likely bots.

... "In short, the state of social media manipulation during the 2020 election is no better than it was in 2016. We are very concerned by the proliferation of bots used to spread political conspiracies and the widespread appeal that those conspiracy narratives seem to have on the platform," Ferrara said. "The combination of automated disinformation and distortion on social media continue to threaten the integrity of U.S. elections."

https://news.usc.edu/177963/election-2020-twitter-social-media-bots-foreign-interference-usc-study/
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on October 28, 2020, 10:31:50 PM
I seriously doubt that either candidate will win in a landslide.  The last landslide was Reagan in 1984, and he did that by a 59%-41% margin.  All indications are that this election will be much closer. 

#3 looks like the most likely scenario, but I suspect that enough votes will be counted by Friday after the election to determine a winner.  Each state must certify the votes.  This will not take months, as each state has a set date, between 1 and 5 weeks after the election to certify the results.  This must be done so that the electors can cast their ballots on Dec. 14.  Should a state not certify results in time, and their electors do not vote, the total falls short of 538.  If enough states do not submit electoral votes, the decision goes to the house.  The speaker of the house taking over is highly unlikely, as the current House itself would choose the president.  This would favor Trump. 
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 29, 2020, 02:44:34 PM
Yes, nobody is predicting an 18 point landslide this election, uhhh, except PRRI.  Half that would still be a landslide, though.  Yesterday's polls (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3309.msg291411.html#msg291411):
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=3309.0;attach=290133;image)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on October 29, 2020, 03:30:35 PM
That would be similar to the 1988 and 2008 elections.  Nobody is calling the Bush or Obama victories landslides though.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on October 29, 2020, 04:41:13 PM
Suddenly the polls appear to be tightening. LOL.

Trump is going to win in a 300+ EV blowout, if not 350+, I think his EC margin of victory will be much higher than in 2016, although the margin of popular vote may remain roughly the same.

Biden doubled down on the Hillary strategy... he has energized turnout in all the states that he will not flip. Again, lol.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: gerontocrat on October 29, 2020, 06:33:23 PM
A nice warm day to

- vote?
- stop people voting?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 29, 2020, 09:11:29 PM
That would be similar to the 1988 and 2008 elections.  Nobody is calling the Bush or Obama victories landslides though.
Bush over Dukakis 1988:   7.8 points   -   CNN called this a mini-landslide (https://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/analysis/back.time/9611/26/)
Obama over McCain 2008:  7.5 points   -   a landslide election (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/nov/04/uselections2008-barackobama3) only in Dixville Notch and Harts Location, NH

Question:  Is 9.3 or 10.3  "close" to 7.8?

More on early-results precincts (https://boston.cbslocal.com/2020/01/10/dixville-notch-new-hampshire-2020-presidential-primary-first-voting-ballots/): Dixville Notch, Harts Location and Millsfield, NH 

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 29, 2020, 09:33:26 PM
Forecast rain via NOAA (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml)

(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1604002574)
Nothing over 1/4" (60 mm) predicted in 2 days (Nov 2 & 3, basically) except for small parts of Oregon, Washington (state), Maine and Massachusetts, and probably some snow in Alaska (https://digital.weather.gov/) (Nov 1 forecast) in the southern panhandle.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on October 29, 2020, 10:22:41 PM
That would be similar to the 1988 and 2008 elections.  Nobody is calling the Bush or Obama victories landslides though.
Bush over Dukakis 1988:   7.8 points   -   CNN called this a mini-landslide (https://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/analysis/back.time/9611/26/)
Obama over McCain 2008:  7.5 points   -   a landslide election (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/nov/04/uselections2008-barackobama3) only in Dixville Notch and Harts Location, NH

Question:  Is 9.3 or 10.3  "close" to 7.8?

More on early-results precincts (https://boston.cbslocal.com/2020/01/10/dixville-notch-new-hampshire-2020-presidential-primary-first-voting-ballots/): Dixville Notch, Harts Location and Millsfield, NH

This is what I love.  One thread calling an 8-or victory a landslide, which frostking over on the poll spread thread says that an 8 pt victory in the popular vote could result in a loss in the electoral vote.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on October 30, 2020, 01:15:20 AM
(https://images.theweek.com/sites/default/files/wpnan201029.jpg)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: be cause on October 30, 2020, 10:46:18 AM
Forecast rain via NOAA (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml)

(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1604002574)
Nothing over 1/4" (60 mm) predicted in 2 days (Nov 2 & 3, basically) except for small parts of Oregon, Washington (state), Maine and Massachusetts, and probably some snow in Alaska (https://digital.weather.gov/) (Nov 1 forecast) in the southern panhandle.


  lol .. if we can't mention the election in weather threads , surely we can't allow weather to get a mention in the election threads ... b.c.  ;D
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on October 30, 2020, 03:20:04 PM
1) I think this is a re-alignment election with historically high turnout, it may be the highest turnout in history as a % of the US (not its eligible voter pop but maybe that too). 

2) There is also a pandemic ongoing.

3) Therefore the polls are going to be essentially meaningless.

4) Early voting is showing a major Biden enthusiasm gap in Florida, with R turnout already almost closing the deficit. In the 2018 gubernatorial election, which the Rs won, they went into the election with a 230K deficit and still won. They are currently at a 150K deficit and there are still days before the election, this has dropped from 300K a week+ ago.

5) Ohio is clearly going red. Ohio has historically been the best indicator for the US as a whole.

6) While polls are saying one thing, the situation in OH and FL, IMO, indicates that Trump is on track to win in an electoral college blow-out, due to both historically high turnout, and the pandemic.

I could easily be wrong, btw.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on October 30, 2020, 05:20:20 PM
1) I think this is a re-alignment election with historically high turnout, it may be the highest turnout in history as a % of the US (not its eligible voter pop but maybe that too). 

2) There is also a pandemic ongoing.

3) Therefore the polls are going to be essentially meaningless.

4) Early voting is showing a major Biden enthusiasm gap in Florida, with R turnout already almost closing the deficit. In the 2018 gubernatorial election, which the Rs won, they went into the election with a 230K deficit and still won. They are currently at a 150K deficit and there are still days before the election, this has dropped from 300K a week+ ago.

5) Ohio is clearly going red. Ohio has historically been the best indicator for the US as a whole.

6) While polls are saying one thing, the situation in OH and FL, IMO, indicates that Trump is on track to win in an electoral college blow-out, due to both historically high turnout, and the pandemic.

I could easily be wrong, btw.

I suspect that Trump will win Ohio and Florida.  He will probably win Iowa, Arizona, and NC.  But, unless he wins Pennsylvania or two or the smaller states that are close, Biden will prevail in the electoral college.  My prediction is Biden 279 and Trump 259.  Very close, and we may not know for certain until well after the election, especially if Pennsylvania is close.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wehappyfew on October 30, 2020, 06:12:05 PM
My analysis/predictions follow almost exactly along with bbr's above:

1. This is a re-alignment election, or a continuation of the inexorable demographic trends that were interrupted by Trump's improbable EC squeaker.
 - White non-university voters declining
 - Minority voters continuing towards outright majority combined with GOP's total rejection of these voters (Hispanic males being the only minor exception)
 - Younger voters mobilized by climate change (finally!)

2. Pandemic - adding an extra bit of revulsion for Trump that is driving turnout enthusiasm higher among Dems than would normally be expected for a bland white guy like Biden. Depressing GOP votes among the elderly, who are horrified at Trumps pandemic response (killing off your voting base - not a smart stable genius strategery).

3. Polls were close in 2016, within margin of error; pollsters adjusted their models to account for the errors; these adjustments are overcompensating, and missing the youth enthusiasm above. So the polls will turn out to be wrong in the other direction this time.

4. Florida is full of Floriduh Man! Always expect some gross ratfuckery there.

5. Ohio is going red, NC going blue, GA and AZ going purple, even KS, IA and TX starting the process towards purple. Continuing the trend, like VA and CO going from red to purple to blue. Once AZ, NC, and GA are solid blue, and TX is purple, there is no path for GOP to win the Presidency in the next few decades.

6. Electoral college blowout, but not quite as big as Reagan's, for Biden. Along with the largest ever popular vote margin (but almost certainly not the highest percentage margin).

7. Possible EC win by Trump with largest popular vote loss? Not at all likely. This is not 2016.

8. Election day violence by Proud Boys standing by?... very little, but extensive media coverage of any that does occur. Post election violence by GOP judiciary and DOJ attempting to disrupt the counting of all the votes? Yes, lots of it. Hopefully futile due to the large margins making it obvious that Trump lost big.

Its not often I agree so much with bbr, except for that one tiny bit at the end.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on October 30, 2020, 08:14:35 PM
Swing-State Voters Face Major Mail Delays In Returning Ballots On Time, USPS Data Shows
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/10/30/postal-service-absentee-ballots-2020-election/?outputType=amp

Absentee ballots are taking longer to reach election offices in key swing states than in the rest of the country, new data shows, as the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) rushes to deliver votes ahead of strict state deadlines.

Over the past five days, the on-time rate for ballots in 17 postal districts representing 10 battleground states and 151 electoral votes was 89.1 percent — 5.9 percentage points lower than the national average. By that measure, more than 1 in 10 ballots are arriving outside the Postal Service’s one-to-three-day delivery window for first-class mail.

Those delays loom large over the election: 28 states will not accept ballots that arrive after Election Day, even if they are postmarked before. Continued snags in the mail system could invalidate tens of thousands of ballots across the country and could factor into whether President Trump or Democratic nominee Joe Biden captures crucial battleground states and, ultimately, the White House.

In Michigan, for example, the Detroit postal district — which includes some of the state’s largest concentrations of Black voters, who are crucial to Biden’s campaign — had delivered only 72.8 percent of ballots on time over the past five days, according to Postal Service data filed in U.S. District Court of the District of Columbia. In the Greater Michigan district, which represents the rest of the state, 84.3 percent of ballots arrived to election officials on time.

The Postal Service’s data accounts only for mail pieces the agency successfully identified as ballots and does not include “first mile” and “last mile” handling steps, which add time to delivery. Advocates and postal experts say the agency, under normal circumstances, should have an on-time score of 97 percent for ballots.

Minnesota Is Urging Voters To Return Ballots In Person After A New Court Decision
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on October 30, 2020, 08:29:26 PM
Narcissists are Drawn to Leadership Theories
https://phys.org/news/2020-10-narcissists-drawn-leadership-theories.html

UQ School of Psychology researchers examined the extent to which a leader's narcissism was associated with their endorsement of, and motivation to learn about, leadership theories.

Dr. Nik Steffens said the findings build on previous research showing leadership was an activity that appeals to, and boosts, people's inflated sense of self.

"The more narcissistic individuals are, the more they endorse various theories of leadership and the more they want to learn about them," Dr. Steffens said.

"This in turn suggests that what motivates some people to engage with leadership theory is more a personal concern for the self than a social concern for the greater good. Our findings chime with an emerging body of work which suggests that narcissists desire to be the center of attention and that one way in which they are able to feed this ambition is by striving for positions of responsibility and power over others. It would appear that those who have self-serving tendencies not only have an elevated motivation to lead and exert their influence but are also those who are most keen to learn about contemporary theories of leadership."

"Theories of leadership tend to celebrate what makes individuals superior to others and propose that it is this superiority that allows organizations and societies to flourish," Professor Haslam said.

"One consequence of this is that most prevailing leadership theories appeal directly to leaders' narcissism. In a time where there are low levels of public trust in corporate and political leaders this is an arresting finding, as it suggests that rather than leadership and leadership theory being the solution to our current woes, they may actually be their cause. If the people who are drawn to the study of leadership are primarily interested in looking after themselves, we should not be surprised if they use their learning to do precisely this."

Niklas K. Steffens et al. The narcissistic appeal of leadership theories., American Psychologist (2020)
https://doi.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Famp0000738

--------------------------------

Donald Trump's Ex-wife Once Said Trump Kept a Book of Hitler's Speeches by His Bed
https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trumps-ex-wife-once-said-he-kept-a-book-of-hitlers-speeches-by-his-bed-2015-8?amp

In a 1990 interview, Mr Trump’s then wife Ivana, said her husband owned a copy of “My New Order” – a printed collection of the Nazi leader’s speeches.

The billionaire businessman admitted to owning Nazi leader's 'Mein Kampf' but said he had never read speeches.

... Ms Brenner suggested the Trump, who was suffering difficulties with his business at the time, may have been looking for inspiration in Hitler's "genius for propaganda" and the way he spun military defeats as great victories.

https://archive.vanityfair.com/article/share/e515a2cd-a51b-4f83-8d61-6ebb9a104e0a
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on October 30, 2020, 09:29:06 PM
(https://static.politico.com/dims4/default/781fa2e/2147483647/resize/560x%3E/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2Fb2%2Fa4%2Fcd4e433b4633888b8c0f5c883ab7%2F1-tom-toles-washington-post.jpg)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on October 31, 2020, 02:48:04 PM
Experts See Substantial Danger to Democratic Stability Around 2020 Election
https://www.rochester.edu/newscenter/bright-line-watch-2020-election-democratic-stability-459792/

(https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/2020/expertsseesu.jpg)

On the eve of the November 3 election, Bright Line Watch—the political science research project of faculty at the University of Rochester, the University of Chicago, and Dartmouth College—finds that experts are concerned about substantial risks to the legitimacy of the election, including potential problems in the casting and counting of votes, the Electoral College, and in the resolution of electoral disputes.

Meanwhile, among the US public surveyed, a majority of those who support Trump—as well as a plurality of those who oppose him—believe voter fraud to be far more prevalent than the evidence shows.

These are among the findings of the watchdog group's latest (October 2020) surveys.

http://brightlinewatch.org/american-democracy-on-the-eve-of-the-2020-election/

"It's really disconcerting that the myth of voter fraud is so broadly accepted," says Gretchen Helmke, professor of political science at Rochester and one of the founders of Bright Line Watch. "There is absolutely no systematic evidence to support any of the various claims made about widespread voter fraud, yet more than three quarters of Trump supporters continue to believe that this is a real danger, as do more than 20 percent of Trump opponents."

Helmke says that this myth has long been used as a pretext for laws that suppress votes. "In the short run," she adds, "it also potentially allows Trump to sow doubt and chaos about any election results that do not go his way."

Key findings

The result of their survey of the American public shows a clear partisan divide over the allegation of possible voter fraud: the percentage of Americans who believe that thousands of each type of illegal votes are cast in elections ranges from 41 to 50 percent overall. However, it never rises above 29 percent among those who disapprove of President Trump, whereas the percentages range from 67 percent (voting more than once) to 78 percent (non-US citizens voting or stealing or tampering with ballots) among Americans who approve of Trump.

2020 election nightmare scenarios

The scenarios rated as most likely concern potential problems on Election Day, such as widespread false claims on social media about the integrity of the election, and misleading reports about long lines and delays at the polls.

The experts also ranked near the top several items directly related to President Trump—that he would decry as false an anticipated "blue shift" as mail-in ballots are counted and instead insist that the initial totals on election night were correct; that he would encourage violence and intimidation during voting or ballot counting; and that he would refuse to concede the 2020 election after having been declared to have lost by the Associated Press.

Bright Line Watch's experts also predicted that the disqualification of mail-in ballots will surpass 5 percent in at least one state, that early vote counts, which are expected to underrepresent mail ballots, will lean Republican, and that at least one candidate will declare victory before the Associated Press regards the outcome as sealed.

"Our experts rate President Trump's discussion of delaying the election and refusal to commit to the peaceful transfer of power as the most important and abnormal of his presidency," says Brendan Nyhan, professor of government at Dartmouth College, and one of the founders of Bright Line Watch. "This finding reinforces the need for concern about democratic stability in this election and in the future."
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on October 31, 2020, 03:58:15 PM
Democrats' lead in FL early voting is down to 107K. It was 150K yesterday.

Pennsylvania's registration shift has also been dramatic but this is not reflected in the early voting. I think Trump will win by about 300K votes in PA based on the shift from 2012->2016->2020.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on October 31, 2020, 04:01:30 PM
538's model is very dishonest. Look what happens when you put actualities in. Trump has a 3/5 chance at winning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews

If Trump gets TX FL OH and PA, which is likely IMO, he has an 84% chance of winning.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on October 31, 2020, 04:35:58 PM
Also, you can further see how the bad data in deep red states is ruining Nate's model when you check off the deep red states for Trump. If Trump holds ME-2 which appears LIKELY beyond those six states mentioned, he has an 84% chance of winning.

He won ME-2 by 10.29% in 2016, btw. So there would have to be a remarkable shift in ME-2 for him to lose this election, in my opinion. This is the actual bellweather electoral college vote.

In Maine, Hillary won 35% of the Democratic Caucus vote in 2016, while Biden won 33% of the D primary vote this year. Make of that what you will, Hillary only won the entire state by 2.96% back in 2016.

If Biden's performance vis a vis Hillary is an indicator (33.4% vs. 35.49%), there is a legitimate chance the entirety of Maine flips. If Maine flips, NH is probably also going to go to Trump (79%), NV (68%), PA (92%), WI (63%), MI (59%), MN (56%).

Furthermore, if Maine is indicative of wins in those states, that then also translates into T victory chances of 55% in Colorado, 45% in New Mexico, 35% in VA, and 22% in Oregon. If CO flips T, NM has a 61% chance of going for T, and if NM flips T, Trump has a 53% chance of winning in VA and a 47% chance of winning in Oregon.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: oren on October 31, 2020, 06:12:40 PM
You could be right, but I hope you're wrong. In any case I wonder if you will revisit these predictions after the election?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on October 31, 2020, 06:14:31 PM
You could be right, but I hope you're wrong. In any case I wonder if you will revisit these predictions after the election?
I will! Very interested to see what happens. To be clear I am not voting, I am interested first and foremost as an observer of actualities and trends re: elections.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on October 31, 2020, 08:35:50 PM
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/?view_type=National&demo=Voter%20Score&demo_val=Never%20Voted&demo2=Party%20Score%20Rollup

I am using the modeled data here and nothing more. Vs. 2016 at the same time / D share of vote / 2016 outcome / would it flip in 20 w current votes in?

AZ: 46.5% (+4.6%) / 3.54% to T, (could flip Biden but I don't think it will) / 20 = +1.06%B
GA: 42.0% (+1.0%) / 5.13% to T (no flip, stays T) 20 = +4.13% T
FL: 46.4% (-1.9%) / 1.2% to T (no flip, stays T) 20 = +3.1% T
ME: 56.3% (-2.7%) / 10.29% to T (no flip, stays T) 20 = +12.99% T
MI: 42.3% (+4.1%)  / .23% to T (can flip Biden) 20 = +3.9% B
MN: 45.8% (-3.9%) / 1.52% to H (can flip T) = +2.48% T
NC: 47.6% (-5.2%) / 3.66% to T (no flip, stays T) = +8.66% T
NV: 45.9% (-5.9%) / 2.42% to H (can flip T) = +3.48% T
OH: 40.7% (-6.7%) / 8.13% to T (no flip, stays T) = +14.83% T
PA: 63% (+20%) / .72% to T (bad data) = +19.28% B / excluding due to low numbers
TX: 38.9% (-1.4%) / 8.99% to T (no flip, stays T) =  +10.39%T
VA: 48.0% (-3.2%) / 5.32% to T (could flip, but probably stays Biden) = +2.12%B
WI: 39.6% (-8.7%) / .77% to T (no flip, stays T) = +9.44%T

The PA turnout is low. The other results are pretty consistent. Based on this data, it looks like NV, ME, and MN might flip to Trump and Michigan could flip to Biden. PA looks to be trending Biden but I'm wary on the data there, as mentioned, as it is a major outlier. I think AZ is not going to flip Biden and the recent data is heavily R.

Now, let's include the states where the margin is 5 points or higher WITH the data. Based on these, there is a 97% chance Trump wins the election. Those states are TX, WI, FL, OH, NC, and ME-2.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on October 31, 2020, 08:58:23 PM
There is also something to be said for the major significant trend in the states with huge turnout + modeled party, and its relevance to the states that do not yet have turnout, as the states already in do have some predictive capability re: those that are not.

If WI, TX, NC, FL, OH, and ME-2 are red, the probabilities for the other swing states are...

AZ: 89%
PA: 88%
NV: 68%
NH: 59%
MN: 57%
MI: 55%
ME: 47%
CO: 21%
NM: 20%
VA: 12%
OR: 8%
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Sebastian Jones on October 31, 2020, 09:00:09 PM
You could be right, but I hope you're wrong. In any case I wonder if you will revisit these predictions after the election?
BBR's Trump blow out win predictions are, I hope, as accurate as his predictions of an impending glaciation centred in Quebec/Labrador.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 31, 2020, 09:20:17 PM
Weather forecast (whether I get banned for it or not  8))

Maine and Massachusetts are removed from 1/4" (60 mm) of rain territory during Tuesday's voting.  Now it's down to parts of Washington, Oregon, New York and Vermont - and no question how Senate and Presidential elections will go in those states.  No heavy snow on election day in Alaska (https://digital.weather.gov/), apparently [select Alaska, precip. amt. and scroll to Nov. 3 on the top drop-down boxes and slider].  It will only be 'really cold' (below -5C) in Alaska and parts of northern Maine & New Hampshire in the morning, and above freezing in the afternoon nearly everywhere in the contiguous states.  The cold snap in the upper mid west will barely affect MN, WI and MI.
(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1604173676435)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on October 31, 2020, 10:46:05 PM
Biden leads in Michigan and Wisconsin as campaign ends

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/31/politics/cnn-polls-michigan-wisconsin-arizona-north-carolina/index.html

Cops pepper-spray voters marching to the polls in North Carolina — including a 5-year-old girl

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/10/watch-cops-pepper-spray-voters-marching-to-the-polls-in-north-carolina-including-a-5-year-old-girl/

No voting suppression there  /sark  >:(
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on October 31, 2020, 10:52:40 PM
(https://m.arcamax.com/newspics/cache/lw600/194/19405/1940595.jpg)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 31, 2020, 11:06:11 PM
About 18 hours left to vote in the 'spread between Trump and Biden' poll.  Remember to refine any guess or prediction in the comments.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3309.msg290432.html#msg290432
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: be cause on October 31, 2020, 11:22:46 PM
just bet myself there'd be 42 votes .. and of course there was ... :)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wehappyfew on November 01, 2020, 02:14:03 AM
Thank you, bbr for your table of predictions. It takes courage to put hard numbers on predictions like that.

This will be an excellent opportunity for either you, or nearly everyone else (those predicting a Biden blowout) to re-examine our priors after the results come in.

If it is a Biden blowout, will you accept the results as valid? ... or will you blame it on fraudulent voting, a vast conspiracy to distort the true vote totals, etc... as Trump has insinuated?



Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on November 01, 2020, 02:31:46 AM
Thank you, bbr for your table of predictions. It takes courage to put hard numbers on predictions like that.

This will be an excellent opportunity for either you, or nearly everyone else (those predicting a Biden blowout) to re-examine our priors after the results come in.

If it is a Biden blowout, will you accept the results as valid? ... or will you blame it on fraudulent voting, a vast conspiracy to distort the true vote totals, etc... as Trump has insinuated?
I would accept them as valid, like I said, I am not voting.

There is polling data coming out tonight that is very alarming for Biden re: Iowa and Wisconsin. The Des Moines Register has him up by as much or more than 2016 and Iowa is a bellweather for similar demographics in the rest of the Rust Belt.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on November 01, 2020, 04:14:46 AM
With so many ballots already cast (2/3 of 2016 total ballots already nationally) and margin of error and 5% not willing to say...these last minute polls don't really tell us much.

I see no recent poll indicating that Biden is behind there. But again, even if there were such, it would have little significance with so many already having voted.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on November 01, 2020, 04:34:23 AM
With so many ballots already cast (2/3 of 2016 total ballots already nationally) and margin of error and 5% not willing to say...these last minute polls don't really tell us much.

I see no recent poll indicating that Biden is behind there. But again, even if there were such, it would have little significance with so many already having voted.
Modeled D proportion of vote is down 4.9% vs. 2016 at this time according to --

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/?view_type=National&demo=Voter%20Score&demo_val=Never%20Voted&demo2=Party%20Score%20Rollup

Take that for what you will, but registered Ds =/= Biden votes, 2020 is a continuation of the realignment that began in 2012 and accelerated in 2016.

https://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-faction/2017/10/24/16524034/2016-realignment-midwest

The hubris of those on this Forum to assume that the white working class will not back Trump even more enthusiastically when they have been called nothing but deplorable, and when D governors have launched attacks on their very way of life since the start of COVID. Maybe I'm wrong, but there was about a 10-point general swing in this demo in 2016 towards T, and I'd be surprised if this was not equaled or surpassed in 2020 when all is said and done (and this time the collapse in D support may also spread to Black and Latino voters, if recent polling is indicative).
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on November 01, 2020, 05:00:41 AM
The collapse in D support is evident in the votes coming in from the deeper blue states of recent.

state / 2020 D support change vs 2016 / 2020 R support change vs 2016 / net change / 2016 diff / 2020 diff /  turnout vs 2016

CO: -1.6% / +.8% / +2.4% to T / +4.91% to H = +1.51% to Biden (86.8% of 16 turnout in)
IL: -8.6% / +4.8% / +13.4% to T / +17.07% to H = +3.6% Biden (52.8%)
MD: -2.4% / +2.2% / +4.6% to T / +26.42% to H = +21.82% to Biden (62.7%)
NM: -2.7% / +1.7% / +4.4% to T / +8.22% to H = +3.82% to Biden (86.7%)
NV: -5.7% / +5.9% / +11.8% to T / +2.42% to H = +9.38% to Trump (90.8%)
WA: -2.3% / +5.9% / +8.2% to T / +16.23% to H = +8% Biden (92.4%)


There are also states trending towards Biden or neutral ish.

CA:+7.2% / -7.9% / +15.1% to B / +30.11% to H = +45.21% to Biden (65.7%)
NJ: +2.2% / -1.5% / +3.7% to B / + 14.1% to H = +17.8% to Biden (76.6%)
VT: +3.6% / +1.3% / +2.3% to B / +25.96% to H = +28.26% to Biden (74.1%)

Of the states with 90%+ turnout in here, the projected lead by Trump is about 10% greater than it was in 2016.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 01, 2020, 12:26:12 PM
Voting in advance:
PRO: Escape long lines of potential covid patients.
     If something happens to you you get your vote in (I once missed an election because I was in the hospital with pneumonia).
CON: You can't change your vote when your candidate is caught in a sex scandal involving half a ton of dry ice and 50 live aardvarks.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on November 01, 2020, 01:16:50 PM
538's model is very dishonest. Look what happens when you put actualities in. Trump has a 3/5 chance at winning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews

If Trump gets TX FL OH and PA, which is likely IMO, he has an 84% chance of winning.

I would be extremely surprised if he did not win TX and OH.  He won them handily in 2016.  FL and PA are key.  Trump must win both to have a chance.  That still puts him just short.  He needs NC and IA, which are both more likely.  That would still leave him one state short.  He then needs either AZ, WI, MI, MN, NV, or NH.  MI is out and WI is looking rather blue. 

Al in all, I think the election will be very close.  We may not know for a day or so afterwards.  I am still sticking with my previous prediction of Biden by virtue of winning PA.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Paddy on November 01, 2020, 01:26:42 PM
Voting in advance:
PRO: Escape long lines of potential covid patients.
     If something happens to you you get your vote in (I once missed an election because I was in the hospital with pneumonia).
CON: You can't change your vote when your candidate is caught in a sex scandal involving half a ton of dry ice and 50 live aardvarks.

Further con: there's a risk, as seen in Texas, that some people may be so unscrupulous as to seek ways to bin your vote.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 01, 2020, 01:30:43 PM
Coincidentally, that time in the hospital also features a three day power failure in my town...
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on November 01, 2020, 10:34:54 PM
Trump Plans to Declare Victory Before Election is Called - Reports
https://www.axios.com/trump-claim-election-victory-ballots-97eb12b9-5e35-402f-9ea3-0ccfb47f613f.html

Axios, citing three anonymous sources, is reporting that Donald Trump plans to ignore the actual results of the election and declare victory if the early results show him “ahead."

That's even if the Electoral College outcome still hinges on large numbers of uncounted votes in key states like Pennsylvania.

... Trump has privately talked through this scenario in some detail in the last few weeks, describing plans to walk up to a podium on election night and declare he has won.

For this to happen, his allies expect he would need to either win or have commanding leads in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Iowa, Arizona and Georgia.


Why it matters: Trump's team is preparing to falsely claim that mail-in ballots counted after Nov. 3 — a legitimate count expected to favor Democrats — are evidence of election fraud.

Trump's team is preparing to claim baselessly that if that process changes the outcome in Pennsylvania from the picture on election night, then Democrats would have "stolen" the election.

Trump's advisers have been laying the groundwork for this strategy for weeks, but this is the first account of Trump explicitly discussing his election night intentions.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/31/red-mirage-trump-election-scenario-victory
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: RikW on November 02, 2020, 08:34:56 AM
To be honest, I don't have the feeling the USA is a democracy anymore;

1. The more money you have, the more people you can influence, thus the result isn't the will of the people, but the will of the small group of democrats and/or republicans

2. A real democracy should make sure as much as possible eligable voters should be able to vote; Your employer should be forced to give you free hours to vote, you should have more than enough polling stations, so queues aren't too long, there should be an easy, simple system without requiring lots of action of voters to register themself to vote.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ktb on November 02, 2020, 09:19:13 AM
To be honest, I don't have the feeling the USA is a democracy anymore;

According to the World Democracy Index, the US is a flawed democracy; not a full democracy.

I would place the US in the Hybrid Regime as the US currently has a government that applies pressure on political opponents, non-independent judiciaries, widespread corruption, harassment and pressure placed on the media, anaemic rule of law, underdeveloped political culture, and low levels of participation in politics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 02, 2020, 01:42:03 PM
More from Mike Snyder. While he is somewhat unreliable, I think he has a couple good points this time, and might be right.

Either way, this election will be the biggest emotional blow that America has suffered in decades
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/either-way-this-election-will-be-the-biggest-emotional-blow-that-america-has-suffered-in-decades
Quote
If Trump is able to pull off another miracle, it will crush Democrats emotionally like no other presidential election we have ever seen.

But if Trump is not able to pull off another miracle, it will crush Republicans emotionally like no other presidential election we have ever seen.

Either way, this is going to be a devastating emotional blow for tens of millions of Americans, and the emotional fallout will last for years.

If you are on the winning side in this election, there will definitely be a temptation to rub it in the faces of those that have lost.

But that temptation must be resisted, because that is not the proper response.

There are going to be people that you know that are deeply, deeply hurting, and they are going to need love and compassion to get through the grieving process.

If we are ever going to be united as a country ever again, we have got to learn to love those that we deeply disagree with.

2 huge reasons why Joe Biden could lose that hardly anyone is talking about
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/2-huge-reasons-why-joe-biden-could-lose-that-hardly-anyone-is-talking-about
Quote
When it is all over, the Biden campaign may look back and see that they had millions of additional voters that actually wanted to vote for their candidate.  But in order to count, any votes must follow proper procedure and they must be delivered on time.

If Trump wins, I believe that the reasons I have discussed in this article are likely to be the deciding factor, and most of the talking heads on television will never even realize what happened.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: RikW on November 02, 2020, 04:19:00 PM
Just saw this video and to me it show why every American who says they are a free country and a democracy, but is unwilling to change the system is a liar.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/opinion/elections-foreign-voter-reaction.html
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: ritter on November 02, 2020, 06:40:59 PM
I unenthusiastically voted Biden a couple of weeks ago. I can't stand Trump, but Biden is on the soggy side of milquetoast.

While I can't put any numbers to it, I believe Trump will win the EC count and narrow the popular vote from 2016. I fear that promising a mask mandate to the swing states will backfire. I fear that closing with gun restrictions will backfire. I fear that Dems hopes for early voting will backfire. I fear that the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016. I fear that the Trump rallies are an indication of enthusiasm that is sorely lacking in the Biden camp. I fear that not a whole lot of younger progressives will bother to show to vote for another old rich white guy. I fear that those most directly impacted by the Covid hits to the economy (the poor) won't turn out in significant numbers for Biden. I fear enough of the black voter and Hispanic voter base has had it with the Dems.

Lots of fear and very little faith Biden can pull this off, despite the ongoing media onslaught to the contrary. Hopefully, we'll know sooner rather than later. Either way, I expect some significant turmoil.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 02, 2020, 06:53:45 PM
Just saw this video and to me it show why every American who says they are a free country and a democracy, but is unwilling to change the system is a liar.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/opinion/elections-foreign-voter-reaction.html
Again, this is from the fishwrap American Tinker, and it is apocryphal, but if it is true it is sickening:

The Day My Faith in American Democracy Was Tried by Fire
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/10/the_day_my_faith_in_american_democracy_was_tried_by_fire.html
Quote
What I experienced at the polling station on June 5, 2018 left a bitter taste that lingered for days.  I have since become more vocal about political matters, even switching to a church that shares my values.  My love for this country still burns bright, but I don't know when my faith in American democracy will be fully restored.  As long as voter fraud remains a possibility, I suppose the jury is out.


I hope what happened (If it did happen) was just a fluke of one polling place misapplying the law. If what is alleged to have happened could occur legally it is disgusting.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: RikW on November 02, 2020, 09:08:54 PM
I hope what happened (If it did happen) was just a fluke of one polling place misapplying the law. If what is alleged to have happened could occur legally it is disgusting.

Well, that shouldn’t be to hard to check, we probably have US citizens here; Are ID’s checked when voting?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 02, 2020, 09:18:24 PM
Who would have thought it would almost freeze in Hawaii on Election Day!  34F (1C) on top of Mauna Loa (4,170 m).  Forecast calls for less snow in southern Alaska tomorrow, more (50-100 mm of snow) in northern New York (valleys).
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 02, 2020, 09:24:28 PM
Quote
Are ID’s checked when voting?
Different states have different requirements, and they change over time.  Per the National Conference of State Legislatures (https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/voter-id.aspx), 35 states have some form of ID-at-the-polls requirement tomorrow.  An interactive map will tell you what state requires what.

Examples:
Quote
Georgia
Strict Photo ID
If ID is not presented, the voter votes on a provisional ballot and must return to show ID within 3 days.
Quote
Texas
Photo ID requested. Voters who do not possess an acceptable form of photo ID and cannot obtain one, may present a supporting form of ID and execute a Reasonable Impediment Declaration.
Quote
New Hampshire
If ID is not presented, the voter signs a challenged voter affidavit and votes a regular ballot. After the election a mailing is sent and the voter must sign and return it; if it is not returned, the voter will be investigated for voter fraud.
Quote
Hawaii
ID requested; photo not required
If ID is not presented, the voter recitese date of birth and address for corroboration.
added after next post...
Quote
Ohio
Strict Non-Photo ID
If ID is not presented, the voter votes on a provisional ballot and must return to show ID within 10 days.
Quote
California
No document required to vote.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 02, 2020, 09:27:59 PM
Quote
Are ID’s checked when voting?
Different states have different requirements, and they change over time.  Per the National Conference of State Legislatures (https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/voter-id.aspx), 35 states have some form of ID-at-the-polls requirement tomorrow.  An interactive map will tell you what state requires what.

That's what I figured (I live in Ohio, not California). But even though it wasn't my state, I still feel outraged.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on November 02, 2020, 09:58:44 PM
Founded as a Constitutional Republic

->"I get the feeling the US isn't a Democracy anymore"

....well, darling, that's because it has ALWAYS BEEN A CONSTITUTIONAL REPUBLIC.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on November 02, 2020, 10:35:30 PM
I hope what happened (If it did happen) was just a fluke of one polling place misapplying the law. If what is alleged to have happened could occur legally it is disgusting.

Well, that shouldn’t be to hard to check, we probably have US citizens here; Are ID’s checked when voting?

I guess that is what can happen in states like California that do not check ID before giving someone a ballot.  I would be ticked too, if I discovered that someone else had exercised my right to vote.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: SteveMDFP on November 02, 2020, 11:36:48 PM
Founded as a Constitutional Republic

->"I get the feeling the US isn't a Democracy anymore"

....well, darling, that's because it has ALWAYS BEEN A CONSTITUTIONAL REPUBLIC.

It's a democratic republic.  More precisely, a constitutional democratic republics.  You seem to be clinging to the usage of The Federalist Letters, which considered only direct democracy (like the ancient Greek city-states) to be democracies.  Modern usage has changed since then. 

A democratic republic is a form of democracy.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on November 03, 2020, 12:01:03 AM
Founded as a Constitutional Republic

->"I get the feeling the US isn't a Democracy anymore"

....well, darling, that's because it has ALWAYS BEEN A CONSTITUTIONAL REPUBLIC.

It's a democratic republic.  More precisely, a constitutional democratic republics.  You seem to be clinging to the usage of The Federalist Letters, which considered only direct democracy (like the ancient Greek city-states) to be democracies.  Modern usage has changed since then. 

A democratic republic is a form of democracy.
OK, so the definition upon which the US was founded as a Constitutional Republic is still extant, but you wish to call it something else because someone "modern" said it was so. Marxism has thoroughly corrupted the English language and it isn't inherent but unless you know what these fake-words and false-terms look like the doublespeak is invisible and omnipotent and it is unfortunately quite easy to fall into the fallacious traps.

Take, for example, Black Lives Matter. Of course Black Lives Matter. It is obvious they do. But the GROUP Black Lives Matter is an APPROPRIATION of this undeniable reality, and this appropriation was done by a mass of rioters and looters who most definitely do not stand behind what their nomenclature would indicate. So you have criticism of what is essentially a bunch of looters deemed "racist" because the Marxists have now discovered how easy it is to pervert the English language for public opinion victories.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: SteveMDFP on November 03, 2020, 02:14:18 AM
Founded as a Constitutional Republic

->"I get the feeling the US isn't a Democracy anymore"

....well, darling, that's because it has ALWAYS BEEN A CONSTITUTIONAL REPUBLIC.

It's a democratic republic.  More precisely, a constitutional democratic republics.  You seem to be clinging to the usage of The Federalist Letters, which considered only direct democracy (like the ancient Greek city-states) to be democracies.  Modern usage has changed since then. 

A democratic republic is a form of democracy.
OK, so the definition upon which the US was founded as a Constitutional Republic is still extant, but you wish to call it something else because someone "modern" said it was so.

Archaic usage is archaic.  Words mean what a society agrees they mean.  Simple as that.

The rest of your post is absurd trolling and/or paranoia.  Nothing about this issue has anything to do with Marxism or subverting society or any other paranoid conspiracy theory.

I'm only a Groucho Marxist.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 03, 2020, 06:22:05 AM
The first results are in!  Dixville Notch, NH just voted and counted ballots.  All 5 voting residents voted for Joe Biden.  Down ballot, 4 votes went to the incumbent in each of the 3 races (1 R and 2 Ds) with the 5th vote going to the challenging D or R (none to the Libertarian candidate).

https://www.wmur.com/app/new-hampshire-2020-general-election-results/34417119
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 03, 2020, 12:22:32 PM
TB, I thought you can't release results until the elections's over? Is NH different from the rest of the states, or what?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on November 03, 2020, 02:11:18 PM
TB, I thought you can't release results until the elections's over? Is NH different from the rest of the states, or what?

The entire state of New Hampshire is not different.  However, the tiny hamlet of Dixville Notch traditionally opens its polls at midnight.  All the registered residence (5 this year) gather to cast their votes (secretly, of course).  Afterwards, all the votes are tallied and the results are released.  This has been done since it became its own precinct in 1960.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: karl dubhe2 on November 03, 2020, 03:45:35 PM
Founded as a Constitutional Republic

->"I get the feeling the US isn't a Democracy anymore"

....well, darling, that's because it has ALWAYS BEEN A CONSTITUTIONAL REPUBLIC.

One which has always had a democratic way of choosing its leadership.   You're trying to argue that the USA isn't a Democracy?  That's strange, given the rhetoric of its leaders these last two hundred and nearly fifty years.   FDR called the USA "the Arsenal of Democracy," did he only mean that it was 'democracy' for others, but not for yourselves?  Forgive me if I'm too amused.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 03, 2020, 03:49:03 PM
Voted this morning, after morning Mass.
Said a silent prayer of thanks that they moved my polling place from the school campus (where it used to take me ten minutes to find the polls) to the old church building next to our current Church.
Asked which precinct my address was in. Guard did not know but directed me to a wall of maps.
Looked and couldn't find it (I'm not good at reading maps). A poll worker came over and asked me where I lived. We thought we found it (I am at the corner of Ravenna Avenue and Rolling Meadows Drive)...but the street we thought was Rolling Meadows was labeled UNKNOWN on the map.
I decided to try the probable precinct station. Man there asked my address and confirmed it was the right precinct. Asked me to take my ID out of my wallet. I fiddled around with it for a bit and then sheepishly asked him to take it out. With a slight eyeroll he commenced. After a moment he said he would just enter the data through the wallet's "window".
I signed the screen as he told me to. He worked the screen and said "That's strange. I've done thousands of these and that never happened." He fiddled a bit more and turned over to his boss for help. She did her own voodoo on the screen and said "I've worked here ten years and I never saw that before!"
They did some more tinkering on the screen. She said "I know this is Tom!" (we sit next to each other at Mass and have become friends). I asked if I should call the toll free voting problems number posted on a sign outside the building but they said they would solve it. Which they did. I then went and voted normally.
This election will be over in a few hours (except for the counting) and God, angels, people, animals, plants, stars and rocks, I shall be
SO GLAD!
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 03, 2020, 04:35:53 PM
and ice.  Be glad for the ice!
 :)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on November 03, 2020, 04:43:06 PM
Founded as a Constitutional Republic

->"I get the feeling the US isn't a Democracy anymore"

....well, darling, that's because it has ALWAYS BEEN A CONSTITUTIONAL REPUBLIC.

One which has always had a democratic way of choosing its leadership.   You're trying to argue that the USA isn't a Democracy?  That's strange, given the rhetoric of its leaders these last two hundred and nearly fifty years.   FDR called the USA "the Arsenal of Democracy," did he only mean that it was 'democracy' for others, but not for yourselves?  Forgive me if I'm too amused.
FDR almost destroyed the American Republic and was an avowed socialist / packed the Court / etc, it is telling you would attribute these words re: Democracy to the one President who almost destroyed the Republic.

All the problems with national standardized testing etc have their root in FDR as well... before him, school curriculums were local and suited to what people actually needed to learn, not what some idiot in Washington decided was best for party inculcation.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 03, 2020, 04:56:49 PM
Quote
... Is NH different from the rest of the states, or what?
Three tiny precincts in NH have special dispensation by the state to open their polls at midnight and when everybody has voted close the poll and count, then publish, the results.  One of the three didn't vote 'early' due to Covid-19.  Those who don't want to stay up late in order to vote can vote absentee, I presume.

Presidential candidates used to visit these out-of-the-way places for the good PR.  One of the Bush presidents did, I recall.  (I used to live in New Hampshire.)  Similarly, there was a hotel in Concord, NH (state capital) where virtually all presidential candidates would stay during the primary season (since 1920, apparently).  I worked for a demolition/salvage company that salvaged all the windows and doors from the place when it was torn down in the '80s.  It appears to have been replaced by The Hotel Concord (https://www.hotelconcordnh.com/concord-nh-hotel-presidential-primary).  (I was building my own house at the time, and my electrical outlet and light switch covers, mirrors, bathtub and wall-mounted telephones came from that hotel.)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: bbr2315 on November 03, 2020, 10:47:45 PM
Democrats now 170K behind in FL / they may lose by 5 points. That would be a +3pt swing to Trump vs 16 if it is accurate but we do not know if it is yet.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Rodius on November 04, 2020, 05:31:06 AM
Trump is going to win.

I am going into mourning.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on November 04, 2020, 05:34:55 AM
A lot of people are shitting their pants right now. Unbelievable!

But like I said... "Don't underestimate the stupidity of idiots"!

Does anyone really believe that this moron will be able to "save the economy"? Don't forget that the real (economic) crisis still has to kick in. RIP American middle class if those moronic American voters give this sick fascist conman four more years.

I don't get it... The country that defeated fascism is on the brink of becoming a fascist state themselves...

GO EUROPE!
ONE ARMY NOW!
Forget Americannot...
A country that destroys itself from within is doomed to fail...

RIP USA!

Unless of course Biden can still pull it off somehow. But I think it's lawyer time for now. It's close enough for a court battle thinks Trump...

Hay Caramba!
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on November 04, 2020, 06:07:29 AM
Now that it is past midnight in most of the country, we are no closer to knowing the next president than before the day started.  Unfortunately, we may be waiting quite awhile as some key state are very close and counting slowly.  It is looking more and more that Pennsylvania will decide the election, and it is entirely possible that the winner of PA will not be known for days.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on November 04, 2020, 06:21:39 AM
It is looking less and less that the Democrats will not win the senate.  They gained a seat in CO and AZ, but lost AL.  All these were expected.  However, they failed to flip IA.  ME, NC, and GA are looking less promising, and MI may be lost.  Still a long way to go, but the trend is not good.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 04, 2020, 01:38:17 PM
I still think Joe Biden will win the election, but it is turning out nothing like I expected.  A piece of the Electoral-Vote.com (https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Nov04.html) blog early this morning:
Quote
  • There was no blue tsunami, and there are quite a few pollsters that are going to need to do postmortems on their methodology.
  • The presidential race is undecided. To win, Joe Biden needs to hold Arizona (which was called for him by Fox and the AP), win Nevada, and claim any two among Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
  • Among those states, Nevada is looking very good for Biden, while there appear to be sizable numbers of strongly Democratic-leaning ballots to be counted in Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Trump is likely to take North Carolina.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 04, 2020, 01:55:19 PM
Could Trump issue an Executive Order that would help him win?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: etienne on November 04, 2020, 03:14:59 PM

RIP USA!

Unless of course Biden can still pull it off somehow. But I think it's lawyer time for now. It's close enough for a court battle thinks Trump...

Hay Caramba!

Honestly, can you imagine D. Trump resting in a  peaceful White House ? This election is an American internal issue with major impact on so many things, from Brexit to Israel, Korea, Climate Crisis... One problem is that people don't see the global situation and only focus on some specific points, and Trump is better in that game because he is able to say whatever is most appropriate to the listener.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on November 04, 2020, 04:22:17 PM
I still think Joe Biden will win the election, but it is turning out nothing like I expected.  A piece of the Electoral-Vote.com (https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Nov04.html) blog early this morning:
Quote
  • There was no blue tsunami, and there are quite a few pollsters that are going to need to do postmortems on their methodology.
  • The presidential race is undecided. To win, Joe Biden needs to hold Arizona (which was called for him by Fox and the AP), win Nevada, and claim any two among Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
  • Among those states, Nevada is looking very good for Biden, while there appear to be sizable numbers of strongly Democratic-leaning ballots to be counted in Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Trump is likely to take North Carolina.

I suspect Biden will win WI, MI, and NV, while Trump will win the race.  Assuming everything else holds, Biden wins 270-268.  The problem is that Nevada just announced that the final results will not be in until Thursday.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Altai on November 04, 2020, 05:20:41 PM
All of a sudden...https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El_J916XgAAt-OF?format=jpg&
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on November 04, 2020, 05:52:15 PM
It's starting to look good for Biden! But this is the horror scenario everyone dreaded, isn't it?

The red mirage... An ideal situation for Vladimir Trump to completely rip the country apart...

Trump knows he'll lose! And so all that's left now for the baby in chief is the total destruction of reality and the country he claims he wants to make great again...

RIP USA!
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on November 04, 2020, 06:14:59 PM
Americannot showed it's cards, and in large numbers it chose fascism over reason...

Well done Hollywood! Keep making movies with governmental conspiracy theories!
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Altai on November 04, 2020, 06:19:38 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El-0HvxVcAA_aVY?format=jpg&)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Altai on November 04, 2020, 06:20:44 PM
It's a kind of magic! (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El-0E2sVgAA7wNt?format=jpg&)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on November 04, 2020, 07:48:49 PM
It's a kind of magic!
It's a kind of horror...
Worst case scenario...

As much as I dislike Americannot, with their power, they could have united the world against climate change. But the religious idiots in Americannot still think an imaginary friend for grown ups who lives in the clouds is in control and will miraculously fix all problems if we just pray hard enough...

Foolish idiots..

And government is evil! Hollywood said so...

The world needed to unite against climate change, but religious idiots prefered delusion over reality and truth...

And then people ask me why I hate people so much...  >:(

THIS PLANET DOES NOT BELONG TO US!!!
IT'S SHARED PROPERTY!!!

If we don't embrace the truth, why do we pretend we're still searching for it?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Altai on November 04, 2020, 08:09:18 PM
It's a kind of magic!
It's a kind of horror...
Worst case scenario...


The world needed to unite against climate change, but religious idiots prefered delusion over reality and truth...
this is impossible until capitalism dominates. In this world money is everything.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 04, 2020, 09:35:07 PM
Just had an ice cream with my friend Dennis from Toastmasters (who is a Trumpista).
Even he thinks Trump was a jerk for giving his victory speech before all the results were in.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on November 04, 2020, 10:26:25 PM
this is impossible until capitalism dominates. In this world money is everything.
That is true at first impression. But not if you dig deeper...

Money is an IOU. I fix your shoes, you fix my roof.
Those who do, and those who don't...

But money has become a thing of its own, with it's true purpose abused...

These days money makes money... It's not I do for you and you do for me anymore...

It's I have more, and so you do for me...

And that is wrong on so many levels...

No more community...

The clan of 8 billion people is just too damn large...

liberal
/ˈlɪb(ə)r(ə)l/

1.
willing to respect or accept behaviour or opinions different from one's own; open to new ideas.

2.
a supporter of a political and social philosophy that promotes individual rights, civil liberties, democracy, and free enterprise.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on November 04, 2020, 10:36:49 PM
Fascism (/ˈfæʃɪzəm/) is a form of far-right, authoritarian ultranationalism characterized by dictatorial power, forcible suppression of opposition, and strong regimentation of society and of the economy.

Fascists believe that liberal democracy is obsolete and regard the complete mobilization of society under a totalitarian one-party state as necessary to prepare a nation for armed conflict and to respond effectively to economic difficulties. Such a state is led by a strong leader—such as a dictator and a martial government composed of the members of the governing fascist party—to forge national unity and maintain a stable and orderly society.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascism (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascism)

Sorry America... Your "leader" is a fake...
Nice try though!
IDIOTS!!!
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on November 04, 2020, 10:45:45 PM
Wisconsin was just called for Biden, and Biden is pulling strongly ahead now in Michigan, where it is my understanding that the remaining ballots are all mail in, which have been trending 70% Democrat. So assuming Nevada comes out for Biden as expected (they won't announce final totals till tomorrow at noon, I believe), Biden will be the next president.

Of course, Trump and his minions will try to kick as much sand in everyone's eyes as possible. He is already demanding a recount, even though Biden's win was bigger than Trump's there last time, when he was outraged at suggestions of a recount.

It should be remembered that in Wisconsin, Michigan and Penn, the only reason they are having to be so late counting the mail in ballots is that their Republican legislators refused to make reasonably accommodations to voting during a plague.

The delay and confusion was planned.

--Michigan has just been called for Biden
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on November 04, 2020, 10:58:19 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El-0HvxVcAA_aVY?format=jpg&)

That must be when those 120,000 ballots appeared.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on November 04, 2020, 11:45:48 PM
Wisconsin was just called for Biden, and Biden is pulling strongly ahead now in Michigan, where it is my understanding that the remaining ballots are all mail in, which have been trending 70% Democrat. So assuming Nevada comes out for Biden as expected (they won't announce final totals till tomorrow at noon, I believe), Biden will be the next president.

Of course, Trump and his minions will try to kick as much sand in everyone's eyes as possible. He is already demanding a recount, even though Biden's win was bigger than Trump's there last time, when he was outraged at suggestions of a recount.

It should be remembered that in Wisconsin, Michigan and Penn, the only reason they are having to be so late counting the mail in ballots is that their Republican legislators refused to make reasonably accommodations to voting during a plague.

The delay and confusion was planned.

--Michigan has just been called for Biden
Trump had a plan... But for this plan to succeed, the election needed to be close...And boy is it close! So Trump has already won...He's the victim... He will lose marginally, and that's all he wanted...

He never wanted to be president!
All he wanted was a media empire...

And so now he can whine about losing because of a failed system... Because the vote wasn't clear... No blow-out for Biden! America is divided more than ever... And you can bet your ass on it that Trump will embrace the Chinese philosophy that chaos is opportunity...

Quote
The Chinese word for "crisis" (simplified Chinese: 危机; traditional Chinese: 危機; pinyin: wēijī, wéijī[1]) is, in Western popular culture, frequently but incorrectly said to be composed of two Chinese characters signifying "danger" and "opportunity".

Trump is here to stay... Biden will be a weak president, without a democratic senate to balance the courts...

Biden wins. America loses!!!

I just want to know what Europe will do now...
No more "British Empire", and no more Americannot...

GO EUROPE!
Hope you can stand up for what "we the people" (enlightened liberals) stand for without getting distracted by religious extremist in Po-land and other religious European bastions that are trying to convince us that someone on a mountain talked to God...

Honestly... If you saw me coming down a mountain with two rocks, and I told you that the writing on these rocks was a message from God Himself. Would you believe me? Would you create a new religion? Lock me up? Or go find the mushrooms?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 05, 2020, 12:49:04 AM
When do you expect Kamala Harris to become President?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on November 05, 2020, 12:54:40 AM
Whatever Happens in the Election, Get Ready for a Rocky Transition
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/11/whatever-happens-election-get-ready-rocky-transition/169790/

Trump says if he loses, he won’t help hand over power, and if he wins, he'll root out government employees he deems disloyal to him.

---------------------------------------

Location: White House
Time: 12:01 PM  January 20, 2021

https://youtu.be/9jMi7r6LAxA

Mr tRump gets escorted out of the WH. ...

Tax fraud & money laundering court dates await.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Gerntocratis#1 on November 05, 2020, 12:55:48 AM
When do you expect Kamala Harris to become President?

They'll try to keep him in until after the midterms, somewhere around January 2023, unless his Alzheimer's progresses too fast.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on November 05, 2020, 02:03:04 AM
When do you expect Kamala Harris to become President?
Was Bush the president? Or was it or Rumsfeld and Cheney?

We all know Biden is a puppet of the rich and powerful... That's why he didn't win big last night...

Repuke or cremocrate, not much difference... That's why people voted Trump, because the conman convinced people that he would "drain the swamp".

Anyone with a brain can see that Trump created an even bigger swamp... The genius of Trump is being able convince people that he's an honest car salesman...

The problem of Americannot is that it's a nation of idiots...
Ever met an American?
Their ego is HUGE!!!!
And their knowledge of the world is dismal...

Fire Fauci?
Seriously?

40% of Americannots believe the world is only 6000 years old...
Dinosaurs are a hoax invented by "liberals" according to them...
So how can climate change be real? GOD'LL FIX IT!!!
And Trump is what we say he is...
All you have to do is "Believe"...
FUCK FACTS!
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on November 05, 2020, 02:14:49 AM
The nation that created the digital revolution is unwilling and unable to let people vote digitally...

Quote
E-democracy (a combination of the words electronic and democracy), also known as digital democracy or Internet democracy, is the use of information and communication technology (ICT) in political and governance processes.[1] It incorporates 21st-century information and communications technology to promote democracy; such technologies include civic technology and government technology. It is a form of government in which all adult citizens are presumed to be eligible to participate equally in the proposal, development and creation of laws.[2]

E-democracy encompasses social, economic and cultural conditions that enable the free and equal practice of political self-determination.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-democracy

Why is a bank able to protect my money, but nobody is able to protect my vote?

That doesn't make any sense! Unless governments are still convinced that making it easier to vote is a bad thing...

DIRECT DEMOCRACY AND BUDDHISM!
But what do I know....
I'm drunk and high on coke and weed...
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: KiwiGriff on November 05, 2020, 02:29:54 AM
Free
Direct democracy only works if you have a well informed populations
Think carefully about the USA and its God addled low information population  in your rant above and allowing them to make major decisions in ballots.

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on November 05, 2020, 02:39:26 AM
this is impossible until capitalism dominates. In this world money is everything.

liberal
/ˈlɪb(ə)r(ə)l/

1.
willing to respect or accept behaviour or opinions different from one's own; open to new ideas.

2.
a supporter of a political and social philosophy that promotes individual rights, civil liberties, democracy, and free enterprise.

Doesn’t sound like any of the liberals that I know.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on November 05, 2020, 03:44:51 AM
Free
Direct democracy only works if you have a well informed populations
Think carefully about the USA and its God addled low information population  in your rant above and allowing them to make major decisions in ballots.
The only way to inform people is to know what they think and then to go in debate with them to inform them and challenge their views...

(I'm wasted, so I have no idea what I'm talking about...)

All I know is that people listen to leaders, and religion is the guide for 90% of the people on this planet...

So science still didn't make it... Only 10% of the people on this planet believe in it...
The rest believes in miracles and delusions...

And then they say I'm crazy!!! ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on November 05, 2020, 04:10:29 AM
Hundreds are being arrested right now a couple block from my house, after they lead a completely peaceful march down to the highway. Cops are blocking anyone from leaving. Still peaceful.

A group of motorcycles just rode up and parked near my house and the white guys got off and headed toward the scene. Maybe allies, but after all the stuff about boogaloo boys, I'm concerned that they may take this as a pretext for burning more buildings in my 'hood.

Another reason why I probably wont get much sleep tonight :/

https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2020/11/04/demonstrators-taking-to-minneapolis-streets-to-protest-election-pandemic-recession/

and live coverage on unicorn riots live feed on facebook

It tears me up. If my daughter were home, she'd probably be down there. Hell, if I had known about the protest, I probably would have been down there.

It partly to protest Trump's blatant attempt to steal the election, hence why I put it here.

But the City Charter Commision today blocked a city council attempt to reform the police.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on November 05, 2020, 04:25:02 AM
It partly to protest Trump's blatant attempt to steal the election, hence why I put it here.
The problem isn't that Trump is trying to steal the election.
The problem is that the election was so close that he was able to try to steal the election...

Americannot contains more idiots that expected...

Let us pray...
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: crandles on November 05, 2020, 04:28:24 AM
Wonder why #You're fired is trending ;o)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Freegrass on November 05, 2020, 04:53:07 AM
Wonder why #You're fired is trending ;o)
Because those idiots posting on twitter didn't get out of their chair to convince enough people to vote for Biden...

But how do you sell Biden?
He's been in politics for 50 years and he's borderline senile...
But hey! That's the best us Democrats can do...
300 million Americannots, and this senile old dude is the best us democrats can do...
He got elected because Jim Clyburn told his black following they had to...

You can either vote for their idiotic geriatric in chief, or for our geriatric in chief!

You Bernie voters can all go fuck yourselves!
Vote our geriatric!
We don't give a shit about you. But Vote blue please!
No ending of fracking, but we will end fracking....
We will save the climate, but we support the fossil fuel industry...

Vote Biden, because he's not Trump or Hillary!
Lets make everything as it was, because I'm old, and I have no idea what day it is...
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Altai on November 05, 2020, 07:52:20 AM
Let me tell you how all this situation is seen from abroad (I am from Russia). First, the vote between Trump and Biden seems vote between industrial capitalists- isolationists and banksters- globalists. The first variant seems less evil because America will mind its own business, forget its global imperialist ambitions. Second, it looks as if Biden is doing some dirty tricks not to lose the electiin. I showed the graphs where all of a suddden the number of voters for Biden increased several dozen thousand without even 1 voter for Trump at the sape time interval. Its quite tipical for falsification technology used in Russia sometimes, so called " vbros". Third, USA now reminds me USSR before collapse- polifical fights, riots, historical statues destroyed, historical figures- the founders of the country becoming villians and racists in public opunion
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Altai on November 05, 2020, 07:58:11 AM
And another thing quite typical for the late USSR- all the political fugures are very old. That is sympthomatic. Though I wouldn' t like to see the collapse of the USA. It is the country with nuclear weapons and it is dangerous for all the World.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Paddy on November 05, 2020, 09:23:05 AM
Altai, those jumps were from urban areas coming in late with their votes, and due to postal votes being counted last. The major split between Democrat and Republican support these days is urban vs rural. And Biden encouraged postal voting whereas Trump encouraged voting on the day.

Trump vs Biden on policy meanwhile seems to showcase climate change denial vs climate change action, so on balance Biden should be the better one for the world.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Altai on November 05, 2020, 09:55:54 AM
Climate action to me personally looks like some showbiz around a neocolonial strategy to prevent other countries' economies to develop. Different words but the trick is old: ozone holes, war against terrorism, export of democracy,  red alert etc. The problems of poverty and hunger, property stratification, world economical crisis, and the future collapse of the capitalist world system are more important. Climate action is simply a way to divert attention from key issues.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Altai on November 05, 2020, 10:07:11 AM
Altai, those jumps were from urban areas coming in late with their votes, and due to postal votes being counted last. The major split between Democrat and Republican support these days is urban vs rural. And Biden encouraged postal voting whereas Trump encouraged voting on the day.
All 100% of urban postal voters for Biden?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: oren on November 05, 2020, 11:10:08 AM
Altai, regarding the US elections you are posting out of ignorance. Votes in different counties are counted and reported at different times. Rural counties with small populations usually report first, where most votes are Republican. Urban counties with large populations usually report last, where most votes are Democrat. Study the details instead of eating someone else's propaganda.

Regarding climate change, do you believe it's a hoax? That it's not really important?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 05, 2020, 12:21:51 PM
The election that everyone lost.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: etienne on November 05, 2020, 12:50:35 PM
Climate action to me personally looks like some showbiz around a neocolonial strategy to prevent other countries' economies to develop. Different words but the trick is old: ozone holes, war against terrorism, export of democracy,  red alert etc. The problems of poverty and hunger, property stratification, world economical crisis, and the future collapse of the capitalist world system are more important. Climate action is simply a way to divert attention from key issues.

Well, somehow I agree. Sometimes inefficient climate action is a way to divert attention, to make us think that politics are handling the issue and that we can consume further because they take care.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 05, 2020, 12:54:48 PM
You know, I am still getting political mail after the election. Either the candidates or the Post Office is falling down on the job.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: gerontocrat on November 05, 2020, 01:01:54 PM
Altai....

....Regarding climate change, do you believe it's a hoax? That it's not really important?
If Altai believes climate change is a hoax and/or is not of importance then why is he here on this forum?

NYT reckons Biden has the best chance of getting to 270 electoral college votes. Currently 5.3% more votes than Trump - my guess on the spread poll was 5.5%, just enough.

But without the Senate, reversing the damage done by Trump et al, let alone advancing the climate action agenda....

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: oren on November 05, 2020, 01:07:44 PM
Altai....

....Regarding climate change, do you believe it's a hoax? That it's not really important?
If Altai believes climate change is a hoax and/or is not of importance then why is he here on this forum?
The way to find out is to ask these questions...
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Altai on November 05, 2020, 01:18:27 PM
Altai....

If Altai believes climate change is a hoax and/or is not of importance then why is he here on this forum?

I am interested in sea ice changes and glacial dynamics, no matter if they are man-induced or natural. Yes, the climate is changing, but it has been always changing. First, I am still not sure it is anthropogenic. Second, I am not sure that we can really influence and stop this process. Third, I am not sure that the current changes are a threat to the world. A new LIA would be worse. Fourth, what I am quite sure is that the things, proclaimed by the politics and mass media only hide their real intentions. all such things are always done for the benefit of some and at the expense of others.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: oren on November 05, 2020, 01:28:51 PM
Wow. A full list of denier talking points. Seems you are susceptible to propaganda on more than one subject.
Be sure to keep these off the forum.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 05, 2020, 01:36:14 PM
Sorry for posting this late, but I don't regularly follow xkcd, just intermittently, and with the election I just got back to it now.
Is this a joke of his or real?
Allegedly telling/helping acquaintances in certain states to vote magnifies your vote?
https://xkcd.com/2380/
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Altai on November 05, 2020, 01:37:16 PM
You asked- I answered. That's my opinion.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on November 05, 2020, 01:51:49 PM
Wonder why #You're fired is trending ;o)

Isn't it obvious?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: gerontocrat on November 05, 2020, 02:43:12 PM
You asked- I answered. That's my opinion.
I suggest you try https://www.skepticalscience.com/new_research_44_2020.html

They have a huge list of Global heating denier myths and the science to show it is real.
And, after that, if you still want to peddle this crap, there is always Breitbart, AmericanThinker, Heartland Institute, American Enterprise Institute etc etc who will welcome you with open arms.

And that's all I'm going to say about that

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: oren on November 05, 2020, 03:21:54 PM
Sorry for posting this late, but I don't regularly follow xkcd, just intermittently, and with the election I just got back to it now.
Is this a joke of his or real?
Allegedly telling/helping acquaintances in certain states to vote magnifies your vote?
https://xkcd.com/2380/
If you cause someone (of a similar political tendency as yourself) to vote, and especially if he or she is in a swing state, then obviously you have impacted the elections more than if you were just to vote yourself.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: SteveMDFP on November 05, 2020, 03:38:55 PM
Altai, those jumps were from urban areas coming in late with their votes, and due to postal votes being counted last. The major split between Democrat and Republican support these days is urban vs rural. And Biden encouraged postal voting whereas Trump encouraged voting on the day.
All 100% of urban postal voters for Biden?

More to the point, the numbers displayed for broadcast are not a vote-by-vote tally.  These are updated periodically from the master tally.  For a brief period of time, one candidate will show a significant increase before the other candidate's numbers are updated.  There's no skulduggery at play.  If the vote counters were really that malignant, they wouldn't be so stupid as to display their machinations.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: SteveMDFP on November 05, 2020, 03:52:48 PM
Free
Direct democracy only works if you have a well informed populations
Think carefully about the USA and its God addled low information population  in your rant above and allowing them to make major decisions in ballots.

i'd agree with these statements, as far as they go.  But there's a cause and effect relationship between the quality of a democracy and the state of information of the populace that works in the opposite direction.

For much of the history of America, the voting population seemed to take their responsibility quite seriously.  People read newspapers and discussed issues.  This seems to have waned after WW-II with a brief reversal in the wake of Watergate and the subsequent reforms to governance.

From the 1970s to about 2000, voter participation fell steadily.  Now voter participation has increased dramatically.

As I see it, the population became politically disengaged because voting results had little impact on policy decisions.  Why vote when it makes little difference who wins?  If voting isn't important, why read up on the issues?

For the past couple of election cycles, the matter of who wins made a huge difference.  So voter participation increased, and the population started to educate itself (though turning to Facebook and Twitter is a lousy approach to self-education).

Give the people the power of democracy and they will rise to the responsibility.  Make democracy irrelevant, and the people will become disengaged.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 05, 2020, 04:29:14 PM
Thanks, Oren.
I thought so too but was not sure of the numbers. And even obvious things aren't always so.
My Twinsburg Bulletin has an editorial asking people to vote Trump out of office.
In the November 4 edition.
This cannot be put down to a lazy candidate or the Post Office being tardy.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on November 05, 2020, 04:43:08 PM
Quote
... Direct democracy only works if you have a well informed populations

It can be argued that to get a well informed populis, it first requires a common corpus of truth. This is currently missing.

This has been missing (to greater and greater degrees) for the last 30 years

First cable, and now, the internet have siloed the news the population hears. Divide and conquer.

----------------------------------

The Fairness Doctrine of the United States Federal Communications Commission (FCC), introduced in 1949, was a policy that required the holders of broadcast licenses to both present controversial issues of public importance and to do so in a manner that was—in the FCC's view—honest, equitable, and balanced. The FCC eliminated the policy in 1987 and removed the rule that implemented the policy from the Federal Register in August 2011.

The fairness doctrine had two basic elements: It required broadcasters to devote some of their airtime to discussing controversial matters of public interest, and to air contrasting views regarding those matters. Stations were given wide latitude as to how to provide contrasting views: It could be done through news segments, public affairs shows, or editorials. The doctrine did not require equal time for opposing views but required that contrasting viewpoints be presented. The demise of this FCC rule has been considered by some to be a contributing factor for the rising level of party polarization in the United States.

The main agenda for the doctrine was to ensure that viewers were exposed to a diversity of viewpoints.

(https://www.snopes.com/tachyon/2018/01/15319227_742602895894459_8493312047161463466_n.jpg)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/FCC_fairness_doctrine

--------------------------------------

Rupert Murdoch and Ronald Reagan – Propaganda Pals
https://consortiumnews.com/2015/01/28/how-roy-cohn-helped-rupert-murdoch/
https://consortiumnews.com/2015/10/05/rupert-murdoch-propaganda-recruit/

... In 1987, the “Fairness Doctrine,” which required political balance in broadcasting, was eliminated, which let Murdoch pioneer a more aggressive conservatism on his TV network. In the mid-1990s, Murdoch expanded his political reach by founding the neoconservative Weekly Standard in 1995 and Fox News on cable in 1996. At Fox News, Murdoch hired scores of prominent politicians, mostly Republicans, putting them on his payroll as commentators.

Last decade, Murdoch continued to expand his reach into U.S. mass media, acquiring DirecTV and the financial news giant Dow Jones, which included The Wall Street Journal, America’s leading business news journal.

As his empire grew, Murdoch parlayed his extraordinary media power into the ability to make or break political leaders, especially in the United States and the United Kingdom. In December 2014, the UK’s Independent reported that Ed Richards, the retiring head of the British media regulatory agency Ofcom, accused British government representatives of showing favoritism to Murdoch’s companies.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/press/government-favoured-rupert-murdochs-media-empire-says-outgoing-ofcom-chief-9947518.html
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on November 05, 2020, 06:42:26 PM
There are many here who oppose allowing equal time to both sides of controversial issues.  Climate change readily comes to mind. 
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 05, 2020, 10:54:31 PM
I just read an article about voters voting with cross purposes.  (Like this is new!) 

Florida voted for increasing the minimum wage in Florida to $15./hr by 2026 (incrementally, from the current $8.56) - 60.8% for - 39.2% against (~10,500,000 votes cast).  In the presidential race, they voted for the person who was strongly against increasing the minimum wage (Trump) and against the person who was strongly for it (Biden) - 51.2% to 47.9% (~11,000,000 votes cast).  (Some people don't vote in every race/question they could vote on.  American general election ballots can easily have 15 or 30 races and questions, including state constitution amendment proposals to local bond issues, and even the almost always proverbial "dog catcher (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2014/06/02/a-brief-history-of-people-who-have-actually-been-elected-dog-catcher/)".)  [When I voted in New Zealand in a general election (when I was a resident there - there wasn't a citizenship requirement), there were two questions on the ballot:  (1) which party did I support for parliament (no individual by name) - I think there were 3 parties, National, Labor and Values - and (2) did I support prohibition in the local district.]
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 05, 2020, 11:07:06 PM
I support a higher minimum wage and voted for Trump.
People vote this way because they pick the candidate who is closest to them on a variety of issues important to them, not the one identical to their views on all issues. If we only voted for the person who is identical to our views on all issues there would be 100 million candidates who each got one vote...their own.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on November 05, 2020, 11:10:41 PM
(https://images.theweek.com/sites/default/files/jd110520dapr.jpg)

*... "A house divided against itself cannot stand" - Abraham Lincoln - June 16, 1858

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lincoln%27s_House_Divided_Speech

Gospel of Matthew 12:25; Gospel of Mark 3:25
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on November 06, 2020, 12:10:18 AM
Penny for the Guy? ...

V: Remember, remember, the Fifth of November, the Gunpowder Treason and Plot. I know of no reason why the Gunpowder Treason should ever be forgot...

Evey: Artists use lies to tell the truth while politicians use them to cover the truth up.

Valerie: Our integrity sells for so little, but it is all we really have. It is the very last inch of us. But within that inch, we are free.

(https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,h_1025,w_1823,x_45,y_0/f_auto,q_auto,w_1100/v1602272367/shape/mentalfloss/633067-wikimedia_commons.png)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on November 06, 2020, 12:57:37 AM
I just read an article about voters voting with cross purposes.  (Like this is new!) 

Florida voted for increasing the minimum wage in Florida to $15./hr by 2026 (incrementally, from the current $8.56) - 60.8% for - 39.2% against (~10,500,000 votes cast).  In the presidential race, they voted for the person who was strongly against increasing the minimum wage (Trump) and against the person who was strongly for it (Biden) - 51.2% to 47.9% (~11,000,000 votes cast).  (Some people don't vote in every race/question they could vote on.  American general election ballots can easily have 15 or 30 races and questions, including state constitution amendment proposals to local bond issues, and even the almost always proverbial "dog catcher (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2014/06/02/a-brief-history-of-people-who-have-actually-been-elected-dog-catcher/)".)  [When I voted in New Zealand in a general election (when I was a resident there - there wasn't a citizenship requirement), there were two questions on the ballot:  (1) which party did I support for parliament (no individual by name) - I think there were 3 parties, National, Labor and Values - and (2) did I support prohibition in the local district.]

Yes.  I never find a candidate with whom I agree on every issue.  I do the same - vote for the person with whom I agree the most.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 06, 2020, 02:10:44 AM
Election Dispute Increases Risk Of Political Violence, Analysts Warn
https://www.npr.org/2020/11/05/931829801/election-dispute-increases-risk-of-political-violence-analysts-warn
Quote
The wild card, Levin added, is that 2020 isn't like previous years. This time, a disputed election is unfolding in a polarized nation that's in the throes of a pandemic and a recession. Usually, Levin said, a burst of political violence is triggered by one big event. He's worried that prolonged uncertainty could bring waves of unrest.
"This is a whole different circumstance because usually the catalytic event has a beginning and end time," Levin said. "This is going to go on for some time."
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Florifulgurator on November 06, 2020, 02:44:42 AM
To be or not to be, Homo Sapiens Erectus or Homo Sapiens Trumpensis, that is the question.
Sorry for being racist.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Paddy on November 06, 2020, 08:21:16 AM
I support a higher minimum wage and voted for Trump.
People vote this way because they pick the candidate who is closest to them on a variety of issues important to them, not the one identical to their views on all issues.

Incidentally, what issues are you backing Trump's position on over Biden's? The economy? Handling of COVID? Healthcare in general? The environment? Domestic social issues? Foreign policy? Relative corruption levels in the two parties? General party affiliation?

And how do you feel about Trump's claims of electoral rigging, and his attempts to claim victory and stop the votes being counted?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blu_ice on November 06, 2020, 09:22:31 AM
I support a higher minimum wage and voted for Trump.
People vote this way because they pick the candidate who is closest to them on a variety of issues important to them, not the one identical to their views on all issues. If we only voted for the person who is identical to our views on all issues there would be 100 million candidates who each got one vote...their own.
Tom you gave your vote to a candidate who is trying to get only his votes counted. Throwing lawsuits left and right, spreading misinformation and whatever. And we knew he would because he has said so himself.

I'm sorry but I cannot understand this at all. Your crybaby of a president is acting like it's impossible for him to lose a fair and square election.

The point in democracy is peaceful transition of power. You cast your votes, then you count them and then we see who won. If republicans lose the White House, there will always be new elections to win. Trump is trying to break the system.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on November 06, 2020, 09:40:19 AM
Yes, with his speech last night, what some are calling the most dishonest in his presidency (which is saying a lot), the don when full out criminal.

Basically he sounds like a football team who is loosing in the second half, so insists that they won because they were briefly ahead in the first half.

It's such a blatantly fraudulent 'argument,' that I can't believe that even most of his supporters are buying it...but then...
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: blu_ice on November 06, 2020, 11:12:29 AM
Yes, with his speech last night, what some are calling the most dishonest in his presidency (which is saying a lot), the don when full out criminal.

Basically he sounds like a football team who is loosing in the second half, so insists that they won because they were briefly ahead in the first half.

It's such a blatantly fraudulent 'argument,' that I can't believe that even most of his supporters are buying it...but then...
He's very good in creating an alternate reality but isn't this going a bit too far? It's just so amazingly ridiculous and being a sore a loser never looks good on anyone.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: NevB on November 06, 2020, 11:23:34 AM
I support a higher minimum wage and voted for Trump.
People vote this way because they pick the candidate who is closest to them on a variety of issues important to them, not the one identical to their views on all issues. If we only voted for the person who is identical to our views on all issues there would be 100 million candidates who each got one vote...their own.

I really can't understand how someone could come here nearly everyday reading and commenting about the Arctic and climate change then vote for someone that is responsible for massively promoting climate denial, hugely damaging destruction of environmental protections and for the US sabotaging the only small hope we have in mitigating some of the inevitable damage.

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 06, 2020, 11:53:02 AM
NevB, blu_ice, and Paddy:
I voted for him because he was endorsed by Right To Life.
Thousands of babies a week are being killed by abortion in this country. This is the biggest political issue of all, imho.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 06, 2020, 12:22:28 PM
Another factor is realpolitik.
I came this close to writing in Brian Carroll. If the race were not nose to nose, or if Brian Carroll had a chance to be as big as Ross Perot, I would have. But this race is really between Trump and Biden and I have to take into account one or the other of these two will win, and my vote just might decide it.
If you wanted to vote for Howie Hawkins but voted for Biden instead, I think you know how I feel.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: NevB on November 06, 2020, 12:48:59 PM
NevB, blu_ice, and Paddy:
I voted for him because he was endorsed by Right To Life.
Thousands of babies a week are being killed by abortion in this country. This is the biggest political issue of all, imho.

At least that explains your reasoning and probably some reason why it's nearly 50%.

I'm not going any further with this though as the path forward from here would not lead to a good place. I really appreciate your answer though.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 06, 2020, 01:10:25 PM
NevB, blu_ice, and Paddy:
I voted for him because he was endorsed by Right To Life.
Thousands of babies a week are being killed by abortion in this country. This is the biggest political issue of all, imho.

At least that explains your reasoning and probably some reason why it's nearly 50%.

I'm not going any further with this though as the path forward from here would not lead to a good place. I really appreciate your answer though.

It was a decisive issue in this election. Not "the" decisive issue, because in an election this close every issue is decisive...even a fly in a debate hall.
I obtained the Right To Life voter's guide. Now, I assume Right To Life would not go through the trouble of preparing and printing and posting a voter's guide for my sole personal benefit. Thus I assume there are many thousands of people for whom this is a decisive issue.
I know the NRA does the same, and I am sure there are others. That is why, imho, this issue (and all other, even the Musca domestica) belongs on this thread, as much as Neven and the moderators may dislike it.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: RikW on November 06, 2020, 01:40:46 PM
Yeah, in my eyes there where issues (climate f.e.) that are more example, but I think the USA has a couple of problems. And I like the idea how Senate (based on states) and House (based on # citizens) are chosen. That way you make oppression of the majority less likely to occur. But some other things should really change!

1. Voting should be easy and available to all citizens.
In the Netherlands you can only be excluded from the right to vote by a court decision, and only when you are convicted for a crime with at least a 1 year jail sentence and there must be a serious infringement of the foundations of the Dutch constitution. This hasn't happened for years.

2. You have a 2-party system, which means it is extremely difficult for new parties to succesfully enter the political arena. And I think that is because of the winner takes all system. In your largest state, California which has around 40M citizens, thus ~13% of the citizens, it doesn't really matter if/ what you vote, because the majority is democratic. Where you live in the USA decides if your vote matters.

With more parties, you'd have more choices and make it hopefully also more difficult for the large corporations to influence politics. Now they only have to 'bribe' republicans and democrats, which as an outsider I think they are doing really good. Okay, it's not good that they do it, but they manage it remarkably well.

I'm be curious to see how many people are really happy with that they voted Biden or Trump. I won't be suprised if the majority voted for him because of 1/2 issues and the fact he isn't the other party. The lesser evil of 2 evils.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Jacobus on November 06, 2020, 01:59:54 PM
Trump is and always has been a clown and an embarrassment to America. That was the case before he was elected President and remains the case now. With climate destabilization well under way our ability to grow enough food to feed 7+ billion people is becoming compromised. I'd say that bringing extra lives into this world is immoral and criminal based on that. If one truly cares about life then don't bring another human life into this world. Wanting to shove more people on to the planet is an indication that you clearly don't value life at all.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on November 06, 2020, 02:08:36 PM

I'm be curious to see how many people are really happy with that they voted Biden or Trump. I won't be suprised if the majority voted for him because of 1/2 issues and the fact he isn't the other party. The lesser evil of 2 evils.

An exit poll showed that of those who voted for Trump, 75% said they voted for him and 22% against Biden.  Of those who voted for Biden, 54% stated that they voted for Biden, while 44% said they voted against Trump.  Clearly, it was more a referendum about the Trump presidency. 

https://morningconsult.com/exit-polling-live-updates/#section-19
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: pikaia on November 06, 2020, 02:47:40 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_VKng0qvRY&feature=emb_logo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_VKng0qvRY&feature=emb_logo)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 06, 2020, 03:24:51 PM
Jacobus
I agree. But humans come into existence at conception, not birth.
I would be willing to see the Right lose every battle in the Culture War except Right to Life.
pikaia
That is the best Downfall I have seen yet!
Everybody
Have the military mail in ballots been counted? Could they make a difference?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 06, 2020, 03:38:03 PM
As more ballots were counted and results released, Biden is now ahead in both Georgia and Pennsylvania.  Several media outlets have shown that it is unlikely for Trump to overtake Biden in these two, and Arizona and Nevada (based on recent trends for which there is no evidence won't continue for the remaining mailed-in ballots [e.g., here (https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Nov06.html#item-1)] - overseas military votes that can still arrive may have their own 'trends' but will be numerically insignificant).  It is unlikely for Biden to overtake Trump in North Carolina.  Alaska, unclaimed by some media, will go to Trump.

Most likely outcome:
Biden 306 electoral votes
Trump 232 electoral votes

These are the same numbers that came out of the 2016 election, reversed by party (before several electors went rogue on each side)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: be cause on November 06, 2020, 04:26:27 PM
I'm delighted for my dear late Georgian friend , Shanti , who passed last year . It was trump winning wot killed her .. she was a big fan of Bernie and lost heart with the dumb bald rump taking the WH . Her spirit will enjoy the swing in Georgia as much as I do .
p.s. Happy birthday Shanti !  :)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on November 06, 2020, 05:41:12 PM
(https://images.theweek.com/sites/default/files/tt200925.jpg)

(https://images.theweek.com/sites/default/files/245231_rgb_768.png)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 06, 2020, 05:57:56 PM
My solution to the Electoral College 'problem' (problem for liberals, anyway) is to increase the size of the House of Representatives by 1/3 (leaving 5 states with 1 Representative - this was 'calculated' by making the smallest state's population the basis for each Rep.).  This would dilute the 'over representation' of the smallest state from a factor of 3.8 to just under 3 over the largest state.  (Doubling the size of the House would bring this factor to nearly 2.5.) 

Despite the (apparently) slavery-influenced formula for determining how the U.S. president is elected, I appreciate that small states have 'extra' leverage towards determining who the president is.  We have a 'federal' government, after all.

Congress (with the support of the President), by the way, determines the size of the House of Representatives, last changed (I think) in 1911.  Each state's delegation size is determine by the Constitution-mandated Census. 
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Iain on November 06, 2020, 06:14:04 PM
Well, thank goodness for that

From this side of the pond, we had a hard time understanding why DT became POTUS in the first place, also why it was so close in the 2020 election.

BTW the downfall parody in #844 is hilarious

But seriously, will Biden be able to progress the transition to renewables with a Republican Senate?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: WildFit on November 06, 2020, 06:34:30 PM
Another factor is realpolitik.
I came this close to writing in Brian Carroll. If the race were not nose to nose, or if Brian Carroll had a chance to be as big as Ross Perot, I would have. But this race is really between Trump and Biden and I have to take into account one or the other of these two will win, and my vote just might decide it.
If you wanted to vote for Howie Hawkins but voted for Biden instead, I think you know how I feel.


So you can add promoting overpopulation that is exatly the very basic issue at hand that plays a key role in almost any greater issue of our civilization.

This is not the first of your statements that somehow let us glimps behind the facade BTW.

Kind of inconsequent, biased and self-centere paired with a tendency to promote anything looking and sounding nice without really backing them.

The obvious urge to make yourself prominent from day one goes into the same direction a little trumpy indeed and believe me, I've been thinking that way before election day.

There are precise words for the kind that I won't write them to keep things civil.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on November 06, 2020, 06:58:56 PM
My solution to the Electoral College 'problem' (problem for liberals, anyway) is to increase the size of the House of Representatives by 1/3 (leaving 5 states with 1 Representative - this was 'calculated' by making the smallest state's population the basis for each Rep.).  This would dilute the 'over representation' of the smallest state from a factor of 3.8 to just under 3 over the largest state.  (Doubling the size of the House would bring this factor to nearly 2.5.) 

Despite the (apparently) slavery-influenced formula for determining how the U.S. president is elected, I appreciate that small states have 'extra' leverage towards determining who the president is.  We have a 'federal' government, after all.

Congress (with the support of the President), by the way, determines the size of the House of Representatives, last changed (I think) in 1911.  Each state's delegation size is determine by the Constitution-mandated Census.

Why not allocate the electoral votes by Congressional and Senatorial districts per Maine and Nebraska?  For those unfamiliar with this approach, the winner of each Congressional gets that one vote and the statewide winner would get two.  That is how Trump got 1 electoral vote in Maine and Biden got 1 in Nebraska. 
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 06, 2020, 07:02:58 PM
The Decision Desk (https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/) has called the election.

Who is the Decision Desk HQ (https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/decision-desk-hq-called-the-2020-election-for-biden-what-is-it.html)?
Quote
...
Finnigan told Smith that he first got interested in election forecasting because he was frustrated by the networks’ slowness to call the presidential race for George W. Bush in 2004. (In the networks’ defense, they were obviously going to be skittish after wrongly calling Florida for Al Gore in 2000.) Per BuzzFeed, Finnigan “started the informal ‘Ace of Spades Headquarters Decision Desk’ in 2012,” but it wasn’t until 2014 that “his team began to really take on the AP at its own game: not just projecting elections based on public results, but also calling county offices directly to feed the tallies into a spreadsheet.”

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: gerontocrat on November 06, 2020, 07:18:27 PM
But seriously, will Biden be able to progress the transition to renewables with a Republican Senate?
Firstly Obama & then Trump realised and used the presidential power of Executive Orders to great effect.

Indeed many pundits believe that far too much power has been given to the Executive branch.

He can also do a lot by just not getting in the way of the State, City and County Governments that push ahead the renewable energy agenda, and the veto plus executive orders can stop much of the support for the fossil fuel industries.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: SteveMDFP on November 06, 2020, 10:30:09 PM

Why not allocate the electoral votes by Congressional and Senatorial districts per Maine and Nebraska?  For those unfamiliar with this approach, the winner of each Congressional gets that one vote and the statewide winner would get two.  That is how Trump got 1 electoral vote in Maine and Biden got 1 in Nebraska.

Well, yes, that would be best for the nation.  But each state has the opposite interest.  Winner take all maximizes the influence of the state.  Thus, politicians pay more attention to those states.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 06, 2020, 10:37:55 PM
Another factor is realpolitik.
I came this close to writing in Brian Carroll. If the race were not nose to nose, or if Brian Carroll had a chance to be as big as Ross Perot, I would have. But this race is really between Trump and Biden and I have to take into account one or the other of these two will win, and my vote just might decide it.
If you wanted to vote for Howie Hawkins but voted for Biden instead, I think you know how I feel.


So you can add promoting overpopulation that is exatly the very basic issue at hand that plays a key role in almost any greater issue of our civilization.

This is not the first of your statements that somehow let us glimps behind the facade BTW.

Kind of inconsequent, biased and self-centere paired with a tendency to promote anything looking and sounding nice without really backing them.

The obvious urge to make yourself prominent from day one goes into the same direction a little trumpy indeed and believe me, I've been thinking that way before election day.

There are precise words for the kind that I won't write them to keep things civil.
A rather semicoherent diatribe.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 07, 2020, 12:26:19 AM
Why Did Biden Win A Disproportionate Share of the Close Contests?
https://ronconte.com/2020/11/06/why-did-biden-win-a-disproportionate-share-of-the-close-contests/
Quote
For some reason that is clear from the numbers, and unclear from the situation, Republicans rarely win a State when the voting margin is 8% or less. They have to win by an overwhelming majority, or else their odds of winning plummet — for no good reason.
The only answer that would explain this data is that the Democrats are able to increase their votes in any State where things are close, and Republicans are not able. How are they doing this? Maybe it's some kind of clever get-out-the-vote strategy.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Ken Feldman on November 07, 2020, 01:36:05 AM
But seriously, will Biden be able to progress the transition to renewables with a Republican Senate?
Firstly Obama & then Trump realised and used the presidential power of Executive Orders to great effect.

Indeed many pundits believe that far too much power has been given to the Executive branch.

He can also do a lot by just not getting in the way of the State, City and County Governments that push ahead the renewable energy agenda, and the veto plus executive orders can stop much of the support for the fossil fuel industries.

The short answer is yes, President-Elect Biden can do a lot by Executive Order and by appointing competent people to run the Federal agencies and enforce existing laws.  Carbon Dioxide has been classified as a pollutant and that fact has been legislated all the way through the Supreme Court.  So a sitting President who actually enforces the laws can accomplish a lot.

Subsidies for fossil fuels and renewables are buried in tax codes and Federal Budgets.  Tax legislation and the Federal Budgets are drafted by the House of Representatives and then voted on by the Senate, where they can be changed.  Differences between the House and Senate are resolved by committees. 

Democrats control the House and are close in the Senate.  While they can't push through sweeping changes, they can do a lot.  Even under the current Administration and Senate, many research projects to improve the grid and fund renewables were awarded.  With control of the House and the need to approve budgets, a lot can still be done. 

Everyone recognizes the need for another stimulus package to recover from the Covid pandemic.  A lot of money will be directed toward new electric vehicle charging stations along the Interstate Highway system, improving energy efficiency in Federal Buildings, putting out of work oil workers back to work plugging leaking oil wells, and installing solar panels on military bases and other Federal facilities.  There will probably be mandates for Federal agencies to purchase a certain number of electric vehicles as well. The Departments of Agriculture and Interior can fund programs to renew soils, replant forests and improve land use to sequester carbon.  Harassment of Government scientists will stop and research reports wont be suppressed.

We will be much better off in 2021 then we have been for the past four years.

Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 07, 2020, 03:32:59 AM
Quote
We will be much better off in 2021 then we have been for the past four years.
How much?
I seem to remember President-elect Obama announcing 'this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal'.
They have only accelerated in the last twelve years.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on November 07, 2020, 05:37:43 PM
We Have a Winner!!!

The Associated Press declares Joe Biden the winner of a grueling campaign for the American presidency. He will lead a polarized nation through a historic collision of health, economic and social crises.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AP/status/1325112826072084480

The #APracecall declaring Joe Biden’s win over President Trump came after @AP
 called Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes for Biden.

The victory for Biden, a former vice president who has spent nearly a half-century in public office, was also a repudiation of Trump, who has led the nation through a deeply divisive four years.

Kamala Harris made history as the first Black woman to become vice president. The California senator, who is also the first person of South Asian descent elected VP, will become the highest-ranking woman ever to serve in government.

President Trump is now the first incumbent president to lose reelection since George H.W. Bush in 1992. #Election2020

(https://images.spot.im/image/upload/q_70,fl_lossy,dpr_3,h_315,w_500,c_limit/v200/74a30ab8809456b44d06b87add4772e4)

One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest - 1975

-------------------------------------------

Rupert Murdoch-Owned US Outlets Turn On Trump
https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/07/rupert-murdoch-owned-us-outlets-turn-on-trump-urging-him-to-concede-with-grace

(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/j85wQycG9IU/hqdefault.jpg)

Fox News, Wall Street Journal and New York Post all show stark change of tone as their former champion faces ‘presidential endgame

----------------------------------------------

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmPA9PWXUAIUVeU.jpg)
https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/1325114878307295232
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Paddy on November 07, 2020, 06:30:11 PM
Just been out to buy champagne. We don't get much to celebrate these days, so I'll take what chance I get.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: gerontocrat on November 07, 2020, 07:20:35 PM
Catastrophe has been merely postponed.
It was not the democrats that killed the beast, it was covid.

A bunch of business friendly Corporate Democrats may well seed the rise of Trump Mark II - who may well use the same script but be better at obtaining power and, more importantly, keeping it..
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 07, 2020, 07:38:15 PM
 sorry Tom .. post removed
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: KiwiGriff on November 07, 2020, 08:29:27 PM
 cheers KiwiGriff .. removed Tom's post and thus yours was rendered unnecessary . b.c.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: be cause on November 07, 2020, 09:24:38 PM
I am delighted to see happy faces on the streets of the USA again .. b.c.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: gerontocrat on November 07, 2020, 09:53:33 PM
Celebration is justified, but beware idiot headlines like this one from the Guardian

Biden's win marks the end of Trump's war on democracy and truth
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 07, 2020, 09:57:07 PM
I am delighted to see happy faces on the streets of the USA again .. b.c.
Actually you just see different happy faces. Half the faces are angry...the faces that had been happy for the last four years.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on November 07, 2020, 10:59:43 PM
https://youtu.be/HLyX4DbE6Hc
“Our long national nightmare is over”

Today is a good day.
It’s easier to be a parent this morning.
Character MATTERS.
Being a good person MATTERS.
This is a big deal.

It’s easy to do it the cheap way and get away with stuff — but it comes back around.

Today is a good day.

Video at link
https://twitter.com/VanJones68/status/1325119093834469378
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: be cause on November 07, 2020, 11:50:07 PM
I am delighted to see happy faces on the streets of the USA again .. b.c.
Actually you just see different happy faces. Half the faces are angry...the faces that had been happy for the last four years.


  .. naw Tom .. they were mostly angry or gloating .. Trumpites didn't seem to do happy ..
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 08, 2020, 01:29:31 AM
I read somewhere that the Dems picked up a lot of white male votes (compared to 2016) and actually lost a little among other demographics.
Is this so?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on November 08, 2020, 01:32:06 AM
From America's most respected news source ...

‘You Have Disappointed Me,’ Trump Tells Room Full Of Supporters While Strapping On Gas Mask
https://politics.theonion.com/you-have-disappointed-me-trump-tells-room-full-of-su-1845533067

Crying Eric Trump Asks Father If They Poor Now
https://www.theonion.com/crying-eric-trump-asks-father-if-they-poor-now-1845595787
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: interstitial on November 08, 2020, 01:46:24 AM
Quote
We will be much better off in 2021 then we have been for the past four years.
I seem to remember President-elect Obama announcing that the seas would now stop rising.
They have only accelerated in the last twelve years.

Better off is relative. Now that he is elected we can start complaining about him not doing enough. Biden is not really a champion of environmental causes. Just replacing the top leaders of various government departmants such as the epa with people who aren't actively trying to destroy the department will help. Truthfully it will take some time to replace people driven out. Probably more than 4 years.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on November 08, 2020, 02:14:36 PM

We will be much better off in 2021 then we have been for the past four years.

Who knows?  Anything can happen in four years.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 08, 2020, 03:38:25 PM
Are there any shenanigans that Trump/the GOP could play with the electoral college before December 14?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on November 08, 2020, 03:53:23 PM
Mary Trump On the End of Uncle Donald: All He Has Now Is 'Breaking Things'
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/08/mary-trump-on-the-end-of-uncle-donald-all-he-has-now-is-breaking-things

... This is what Donald’s going to do: he’s not going to concede, although who cares. What’s worse is he’s not going to engage in the normal activities that guarantee a peaceful transition. All he’s got now is breaking stuff, and he’s going to do that with a vengeance. I’ve always known how cruel he can be. Shortly after the 2016 election, when I’d see him being particularly cruel, I would think about how he treated my father [Fred Trump Jr, Donald’s older brother, who died of alcoholism at 43]. He took away our family health insurance after his father, my grandfather, died – this was when my nephew needed round-the-clock nursing care, which we then couldn’t afford. That is the kind of man he is.

He’ll be having meltdowns upon meltdowns right now. He has never been in a situation like this before. What’s interesting is that Donald has never won anything legitimately in his entire life, but because he has been so enabled by people along the way, he has never lost anything either. He’s the kind of person who thinks that even if you steal and cheat to win, you deserve to win.

... The fact that the Republicans have done better than expected in Congress and the Senate will have made him extraordinarily angry. It means that people were voting against Donald Trump in this election, but not necessarily against this party. That will have added so much salt to his narcissistic wounds.

... I worry about what Donald’s going to do in that time to lash out. He will go as far as he can to delegitimise the new administration, then he’ll pass pardons that will demoralise us, and sign a flurry of executive orders. Remember, he will also still be in charge of the US response to the pandemic. There could be a million Americans dead by then under his watch.

After January, things look bleak for Donald. He has more than $400m of debt coming in the next four years. Why at this point would his lenders cut him any slack? He has never paid anyone back. His businesses are in the tank. He has destroyed his brand.

As for saying he’ll run in 2024, that’s just a face-saving exercise. It’s a way of distracting him from the fact that he’s probably going to prison. But the worst thing Donald’s looking at isn’t financial difficulties or the prospect of jail. It’s becoming irrelevant. I don’t think he would ever recover from that.

... there's always cyanide & a Walther PPK in the bunker ....
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: kassy on November 08, 2020, 07:00:48 PM
If things go badly there is still this rule to depose him because he is mentally unfit. If he becomes really embarrassing they might do that...
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: gandul on November 08, 2020, 08:03:27 PM
Can I state the obvious (Biden/Harris won after the George Floyd + COVID social uprising -> massive vote) which is my pet theory, and that their victory doesn’t have so much to do with the “attractive” of dementia-riddled Biden or false-laugher Harris, or with the Lincoln Project (rofl)?

Can I predict the obvious that Biden/Harris will spend months with platitudes and not a word on healthcare for all, minimum wage, ensure home/rent for COVID challenged professionals, etc?

Who is for a deception bigger than Obama/Biden/Clinton ?
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: gandul on November 08, 2020, 08:08:50 PM
Quote
We will be much better off in 2021 then we have been for the past four years.
I seem to remember President-elect Obama announcing that the seas would now stop rising.
They have only accelerated in the last twelve years.

Better off is relative. Now that he is elected we can start complaining about him not doing enough. Biden is not really a champion of environmental causes. Just replacing the top leaders of various government departmants such as the epa with people who aren't actively trying to destroy the department will help. Truthfully it will take some time to replace people driven out. Probably more than 4 years.
Agree, Biden doesn’t give a damn but will return to Paris agreement because the cost is very relative to the publicity stunt. However I don’t see him as a cavalier against fracking, oil industry, he’s just a product of 40 years of corruption.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 08, 2020, 08:33:17 PM
BTW, now that the election is over, will this thread be closed? There may be postmortems for weeks or even months, so I would think it should stay up awhile at least.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 08, 2020, 11:57:45 PM
The election is definitely not over until at least December 14 when the electoral college votes.  It would be easy to argue that the January 5 runoff elections in Georgia are part of the 2020 election, and they are not over until the votes are certified.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: The Walrus on November 09, 2020, 01:17:43 AM
BTW, now that the election is over, will this thread be closed? There may be postmortems for weeks or even months, so I would think it should stay up awhile at least.

While the [presidential] election may be over, the Trump presidency is not.  He is still in charge for 72 more days.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on November 09, 2020, 01:20:03 AM
(https://www.kaltoons.com/wp-content/uploads/Kal-counterpoint-5-26-2020web-1.jpg)

(https://images.theweek.com/sites/default/files/20201105edshe-b.jpg)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDhyaMXW4AIsKlq?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: Sebastian Jones on November 09, 2020, 03:54:18 AM
BTW, now that the election is over, will this thread be closed? There may be postmortems for weeks or even months, so I would think it should stay up awhile at least.
Ideally it will simply fade away, die a natural death. If it still needs to be open come Jan 20th, America will be in real trouble.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: vox_mundi on November 09, 2020, 10:37:57 PM
David Bossie, Who Was Named to Lead Trump Effort to Challenge Election Results, Tests Positive for Coronavirus
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/11/09/covid-19-trump-campaign-official-david-bossie-has-coronavirus.html

David Bossie, who only days ago was tapped to handle President Donald Trump's effort to challenge the results of the presidential election, has tested positive for the coronavirus.

Bossie's diagnosis was disclosed hours after news broke that Trump Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson was positive with Covid-19, and days after White House chief of staff Mark Meadows was revealed to be positive with the virus.

As a result, Bossie is no longer part of the decision-making process of the election challenge effort, "because he can't be at the campaign headquarters and he can't be in the Oval Office," a source told NBC News.

Bossie last Thursday participated in an Arizona Republican Party press conference about the Trump campaign in Phoenix.

At that event, Bossie, who was not wearing a mask, stood alongside U.S. Reps. Paul Gosar and Debbie Lesko, state party chairwoman Kelli Ward, former Trump campaign officials Jeff DeWit and Boris Epshteyn, former U.S. Rep. John Shadegg.

Bossie is head of the conservative advocacy group Citizens United.

-------------------------------------

(https://i.redd.it/uwdxfuz7s2v41.jpg)

-------------------------------------

HUD Chief Ben Carson Tests Positive for Covid-19
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/hud-secretary-ben-carson-tests-positive-for-coronavirus.html

Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson tested positive for Covid-19, according to NBC News.

Carson is the latest person in the administration to contract the virus, and his positive test comes less than a week after White House chief of staff Mark Meadows tested positive for Covid-19, CNBC’s Kevin Breuninger reports.

Carson and Meadows both attended an in-person election night party at the White House last week, NBC confirmed.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/07/white-house-chief-of-staff-mark-meadows-has-tested-positive-for-coronavirus.html

(https://i.imgflip.com/qgkxz.jpg)
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: interstitial on November 09, 2020, 11:36:45 PM
BTW, now that the election is over, will this thread be closed? There may be postmortems for weeks or even months, so I would think it should stay up awhile at least.

While the [presidential] election may be over, the Trump presidency is not.  He is still in charge for 72 more days.
soon he will began to lash out at the country as a whole.
Title: Re: Elections 2020 USA
Post by: wili on November 10, 2020, 10:34:00 AM
Is a coup attempt now in full swing?

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/11/this-is-an-attempted-coup-voting-expert-warns-bill-barr-is-trying-to-overturn-the-election/


‘This is an attempted coup’:

Voting expert warns Bill Barr is ‘trying to overturn the election’

............

Barr OK for election-fraud investigations roils Justice Department

In response to Barr’s memo, the career official