Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Arctic sea ice => Topic started by: Wherestheice on January 01, 2019, 11:31:48 PM

Title: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Wherestheice on January 01, 2019, 11:31:48 PM
To a good year everyone. I feel an interesting melt season coming.

<Thanks for opening, I've edited the title, and here's the 2018 version (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=2223.0) of this thread; N.>
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 02, 2019, 12:33:10 PM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,287,194 km2(January 1, 2019)

JAXA data appeared a couple of hours ago.

- Extent gain 122k, 96k above average (last 10 years) for the day, the 4th day of very high gains.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 131 k (1.6%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 79.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.20 million km2 (320k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.07 million km2, (190k > 2017).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly drop from +4.5 and to zero by next Monday and stay below zero for a few days after that. However, cold and warm pulses continue travelling up the Atlantic Front to north of Novaya Zemla.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 02, 2019, 03:11:51 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 1 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) = 11,113,007 km2

Total Area         
 11,113,007    km2      
-69,723    km2   <    2010's average.
 215,003    k   >   2017
-499,530    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    89    k   
Peripheral Seas    45    k   gain
Central Seas__    18    k   gain
Other Seas___    26    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    9    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    16    k   gain
Greenland____    10    k   gain
Barents ______    11    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    10    k   gain
         
Kara_________    7    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    8    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    15    k   gain
Area gain of 89 k is below average by 28k on this day.
Area is:
- 215k greater than 2017,
- 70k less than the 2010's average,
- 500k less than the 2000's average.

Area gain switched from back to above average to low.

Other stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly drop from +4.5 and to zero by next Monday and stay below zero for a few days after that. However, cold and warm pulses continue travelling up the Atlantic Front to north of Novaya Zemla.

Regional variations suggest that while the main Arctic freezes solid and the Bering quickly increases in ice area and extent, the Atlantic Front may still resist icing up part of the time.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 03, 2019, 06:49:05 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

January 2nd, 2019:
     12,454,828 km2, an increase of 167,634 km2.
     2018  :P :) 2019 is now the 6th lowest on record.

Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: El Cid on January 03, 2019, 07:56:46 AM
It's a new year Juan, buckle up! 2019 is the 6th lowest not 2018

:)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Feeltheburn on January 03, 2019, 08:36:28 AM
Anyone care to comment on the massive 1-day increase in ice extent of 282,000 km2 according to NSIDC? Is it a glitch caused by cloud cover, a whole bunch of ice forming in regions where it was just below 15%, or wind induced movement towards Svalbaard?

Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 03, 2019, 11:08:25 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,454,828 km2(January 2, 2019)

- Extent gain 168k, 133k above average (last 10 years) for the day, the 5th day of very high and extremely high gains.
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is just 2 k (0%) above the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 80.3 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.33 million km2 (450k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.20 million km2, (320k > 2017).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly drop from +4.5 and to zero by next Monday and stay below zero for a few days after that. However, cold and warm pulses continue travelling up the Atlantic Front to north of Novaya Zemla.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2018. I exclude 2018 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 03, 2019, 03:29:17 PM
Anyone care to comment on the massive 1-day increase in ice extent of 282,000 km2 according to NSIDC? Is it a glitch caused by cloud cover, a whole bunch of ice forming in regions where it was just below 15%, or wind induced movement towards Svalbaard?
JAXA extent gain has been very high in the last 2 days. Bering and Atlantic Front cold at the moment. Also I believe NSIDC does something with the masks at the beginning of January which can give an upward blip.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 03, 2019, 04:12:10 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 2 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) = 11,224,863 km2

Total Area         
 11,224,863    km2      
-64,982    km2   <    2010's average.
 591,787    k   >   2018
-472,492    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    112    k   
Peripheral Seas    51    k   gain
Central Seas__    36    k   gain
Other Seas___    25    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    10    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    20    k   gain
Greenland____    9    k   gain
Barents ______    12    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    6    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    11    k   gain
         
Kara_________    17    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    12    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    12    k   gain
Area gain of 112 k is above average by 4k on this day. Mask change 1 Jan.
Area is:
- 227k greater than 2018,
- 65k less than the 2010's average,
- 472k less than the 2000's average.

Other stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly drop from +4.5 and to zero by next Monday and stay below zero for a few days after that. However, cold and warm pulses continue travelling up the Atlantic Front to north of Novaya Zemla.

Regional variations suggest that while the main Arctic freezes solid and the Bering quickly increases in ice area and extent, the Atlantic Front may switch from rapid to slow freeze every few days.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Phil. on January 03, 2019, 05:35:41 PM
Anyone care to comment on the massive 1-day increase in ice extent of 282,000 km2 according to NSIDC? Is it a glitch caused by cloud cover, a whole bunch of ice forming in regions where it was just below 15%, or wind induced movement towards Svalbaard?

I think you'll find that it's because at the beginning of the month and they've switched to the new mask.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on January 03, 2019, 06:18:38 PM
In general extent did increase sharply in the last few days around Svalbard, as can be seen in the AMSR2 regional chart of the CAB.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 04, 2019, 05:03:32 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

January 3rd, 2019:
     12,524,331 km2, an increase of 69,503 km2.
     2019 is now the 7th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 04, 2019, 09:01:00 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,524,331 km2(January 3, 2019)

The change of year is still giving my spreadsheets some grief. Misplaced confidence or what.

- Extent gain 70k, 20k above average (last 10 years) for the day, a moderation from the 5 previous days of very high and extremely high gains.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is just 21 k (0.3%) above the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 80.8 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.35 million km2 (470k > 2017).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.21 million km2, (330k > 2017).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly drops from +3.5 to zero by next Monday and perhaps to -3.0 degrees by the 13th. However, cold and warm pulses continue travelling up the Atlantic Front to north of Novaya Zemla.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 04, 2019, 02:11:34 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 3 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,343,002 km2

Total Area         
 11,343,002    km2      
 16,234    km2   >    2010's average.
 273,728    k   >   2018
-399,693    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    118    k   
Peripheral Seas    48    k   gain
Central Seas__    44    k   gain
Other Seas___    26    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    11    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    19    k   gain
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    10    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    9    k   gain
         
Kara_________    21    k   gain
Laptev_______    8    k   gain
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    13    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    12    k   gain
Area gain of 118 k is above average by 80k on this day. Mask change 1 Jan ripples.
Area is:
- 274k greater than 2018,
- 16k greater than the 2010's average,
- 400k less than the 2000's average.

Other stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly drops from +3.5 to zero by next Monday and perhaps to -3.0 degrees by the 13th. However, cold and warm pulses continue travelling up the Atlantic Front to north of Novaya Zemla.

Regional variations suggest that while the main Arctic freezes solid and the Bering quickly increases in ice area and extent, the Atlantic Front may switch from rapid to slow freeze every few days.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 05, 2019, 04:57:04 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

January 4th, 2019:
     12,590,152 km2, an increase of 65,821 km2.
     2019 is now the 8th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: jdallen on January 05, 2019, 05:04:41 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

January 4th, 2019:
     12,590,152 km2, an increase of 65,821 km2.
     2019 is now the 8th lowest on record.
If this had happened 5 days ago, my guess would have been correct.  Just goes to show how volatile things are now.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Sterks on January 05, 2019, 05:33:15 AM
Well, having all years extents of the series, except one or two, within 500k doesn’t call for a prediction but for a bet.
I guess it is one of these moments extent is more defined by land boundaries than for anything else. This year Bering is not as anomalous and the Atlantic side had a sudden rebound, so voila. Almost as in the 90s. Edit: wrong curve, I meant 2000s, which difference after all, is not so big with this decade at this time of the year. But looking at Gerontocrat's plot, 2019 is closer to average 2010s currently than anything else.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 05, 2019, 11:08:43 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,590,152 km2(January 4, 2019)

- Extent gain 66k, 27k above average (last 10 years) for the day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 48 k (0.6%) above the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 81.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.38 million km2 (500k > 2018).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.24 million km2, (360k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly drops from +3.5 to zero by next Monday and perhaps to -3.5 degrees by the 15th.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: dnem on January 05, 2019, 03:07:51 PM
If this had happened 5 days ago, my guess would have been correct.  Just goes to show how volatile things are now.

I think many of us have a sense that the arctic see ice metrics have become more volatile. I'd love to see Tamino have a go at analyzing the variability of the various metrics.  I thought he had a link at Open Mind where you could request an analysis but I don't see it any more.  Anyone know how to ask him if he'd like to take a whack at the question "Have sea ice extent, area and/or volume measures become more variable over time?" There are so many metrics and so many time scales that it is hard to know how to attack this question.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 05, 2019, 03:35:48 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 4 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,471,485 km2

Total Area         
 11,471,485    km2      
 135,677    km2   >    2010's average.
 317,871    k   >   2018
-313,384    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    129    k   
Peripheral Seas    46    k   gain
Central Seas__    52    k   gain
Other Seas___    31    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    10    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    21    k   gain
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______    10    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_    12    k   gain
         
Kara_________    25    k   gain
Laptev_______    8    k   gain
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    16    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    12    k   gain
Area gain of 129 k is above average by 91k on this day. That's a lot
Area is:
- 318k greater than 2018,
- 136k greater than the 2010's average,
- 313k less than the 2000's average.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly drops from +3.5 to zero by next Monday and perhaps to -3.5 degrees by the 15th. That is cold.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 06, 2019, 04:49:55 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

January 5th, 2019:
     12,625,578 km2, an increase of 35,426 km2.
     2019 is the 8th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Adam Ash on January 06, 2019, 06:10:22 AM
Nice data thanks. 

The annual variability seems to be consistent with previous decades - all over the place.

Looking at the decade data shows the 'big picture' trend, with decade on decade loss increasing somewhat.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 06, 2019, 09:54:17 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,625,578 km2(January 5, 2019)

- Extent gain 35k, 9k below average (last 10 years) for the day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 41 k (0.5%) above the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 81.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.37 million km2 (490k > 2018).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.24 million km2, (360k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly drops from +2 to zero by next Monday and perhaps averaging around -2 degrees to the 15th.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 06, 2019, 02:43:47 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,590,404 km2

Total Area         
 11,590,404    km2      
 213,893    km2   >    2010's average.
 351,651    k   >   2018
-232,824    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    119    k   
Peripheral Seas    45    k   gain
Central Seas__    45    k   gain
Other Seas___    29    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    14    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    17    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    10    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_    8    k   gain
         
Kara_________    23    k   gain
Laptev_______    7    k   gain
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    17    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    10    k   gain
Area gain of 119 k is above average by 78k on this day. That's a lot
Area is:
- 352k greater than 2018,
- 214k greater than the 2010's average,
- 233k less than the 2000's average.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly drops from +2 to zero by next Monday and perhaps averaging around -2 degrees to the 15th. . That is cold.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 07, 2019, 04:58:56 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

January 6th, 2019:
     12,660,872 km2, an increase of 35,294 km2.
     2019 is the 8th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 07, 2019, 10:25:25 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,660,872 km2(January 6, 2019)

- Extent gain 35k, 11k below average (last 10 years) for the day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 29 k (0.4%) above the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 82 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

An extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.36 million km2 (480k > 2018).  Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 14.25 million km2, (370k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly drop to zero today and then stays at around 0 to -1.5 degrees for the forecast period.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 08, 2019, 04:56:47 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

January 7th, 2019:
     12,711,284 km2, an increase of 50,412 km2.
     2019 is the 8th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Feeltheburn on January 08, 2019, 05:01:19 AM
Extent is 13,238 on NSIDC on 1-6-19, a daily increase of 140,000 km2, now surpassing 2011 and 2013-2018 for the same day.

Interesting that arctic ice in the last month extended significantly in both directions. Should be an interesting melt season, that's for sure.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 09, 2019, 04:51:37 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

January 8th, 2019:
     12,714,611 km2, an increase of only 3,327 km2.
     2019 is still the 8th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 10, 2019, 05:01:02 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 9th, 2019:
     12,784,965 km2, an increase of 70,354 km2.
     2019 is the 8th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 10, 2019, 05:34:48 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,784,965 km2(January 9, 2019)

Not a lot of change while I was off-line.

- Extent gain 70k, 22k above average (last 10 years) for the day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 39 k (0.5%) above the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 83.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

I was adding an extra line in the table attached based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorted the average. However, this late in the season the difference in the outcome is reduced to a mere 60k,  so is now ignored. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.37 million km2 (480k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from zero to -2 degrees for the next week or more. The Bering Strait looks like it will have some strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 10, 2019, 04:57:44 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 9 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,797,992 km2

Total Area         
 11,797,992    km2      
 255,937    km2   >    2010's average.
 413,264    k   >   2018
-182,539    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    36    k   
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas__    21    k   gain
Other Seas___    9    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______    7    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
         
Kara_________    15    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    11    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss
Although area gain has dropped from 118k to 36k over the last 5 days, it is still a little bit above average.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from zero to -2 degrees for the next week or more. The Bering Strait looks like it will have some strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time. This could continue the stall in Bering Sea extent and area gain.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 11, 2019, 04:59:30 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 10th, 2019:
     12,843,848 km2, an increase of 58,883 km2.
     2019 is now the 9th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 11, 2019, 08:25:41 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,843,848 km2(January 10, 2019)

- Extent gain 59k, 3k above average (last 10 years) for the day.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 42 k (0.5%) above the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 83.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.37 million km2 (490k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from zero to -2 degrees for the next week or more. The Bering Strait looks like it will have some strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 11, 2019, 02:40:32 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,825,563 km2

Total Area         
 11,825,563    km2      
 254,313    km2   >    2010's average.
 441,557    k   >   2018
-195,202    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    28    k   
Peripheral Seas    4    k   gain
Central Seas__    18    k   gain
Other Seas___    5    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -5    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    7    k   gain
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______    7    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________    19    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    8    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Area gain has dropped from 118k to 28k over the last 6 days, 7 k below average.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from zero to -2 degrees for the next week or more. The Bering Strait looks like it will have some strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time. This could continue the stall in Bering Sea extent and area gain.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 12, 2019, 05:23:36 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 11th, 2019:
     12,822,723 km2, a drop of -21,125 km2.  :o
     2019 is now the 6th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 12, 2019, 09:40:25 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,822,723 km2(January 11, 2019)

What a difference a day makes, 24 little hours
- Extent loss 21k, 91k less than average gain of 70 k (last 10 years) on this day.
- Extent is 9th 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 43 k (0.5%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 84.4 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.29 million km2 (410k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from zero to -2 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 12, 2019, 02:33:35 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,843,950 km2

Total Area         
 11,843,950    km2      
 245,958    km2   >    2010's average.
 465,799    k   >   2018
-212,630    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    18    k   
Peripheral Seas    4    k   gain
Central Seas__    17    k   gain
Other Seas___   -2    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    4    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________    21    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    6    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss
Area gain has dropped from 118k to 18k over the last 7 days, 9 k below average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from zero to -2 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 13, 2019, 04:45:54 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 12th, 2019:
     12,766,506 km2, a drop of -56,217 km2.  :o
     2019 is now the 4th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: miki on January 13, 2019, 06:51:10 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 12th, 2019:
     12,766,506 km2, a drop of -56,217 km2.  :o
     2019 is now the 4th lowest on record.

What the heck...
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on January 13, 2019, 06:54:39 AM
There was mention of a cyclone in the Greenland Sea. Probably related?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Pmt111500 on January 13, 2019, 07:45:57 AM
Whoops. This might be the time to start to wait for a wintertime drop of a century-K, dec-jan-feb-½mar.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 13, 2019, 07:48:58 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,766,506 km2(January 12, 2019)

What a difference 2 days make, 48 little hours
- Extent loss 21k 56k, 91k 105k less than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 9th 6th    4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 149 k (1.8%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 84.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.18 million km2 (300k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from zero to -2 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: psymmo7 on January 13, 2019, 10:30:28 AM
Hi Gerontocrat,
many, many thanks for your great charts and graphs. I couldn't live without them.
Just a question about a tweak to make one  even more perfect  - in the chart entitled "JAXA - Arctic Sea Ice March Maximum - in km2 million" shouldn't the header of the 4th column read "Resulting 2019 Maximum"?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 13, 2019, 04:03:08 PM
Have not been commenting lately but visit this site every day. Freeze seasons can be fun!  :o
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 13, 2019, 04:15:59 PM
Hi Gerontocrat,
many, many thanks for your great charts and graphs. I couldn't live without them.
Just a question about a tweak to make one  even more perfect  - in the chart entitled "JAXA - Arctic Sea Ice March Maximum - in km2 million" shouldn't the header of the 4th column read "Resulting 2019 Maximum"?
Yes it should. Thanks.

I do need people to point these little glitches out. Once upon a time I had one relatively simple spreadsheet - JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent, with just 4 sheets and two graphs. I now realise like topsy it has grown to well over 25 spreadsheets with something like 200 sheets and 100 graphs.

Just getting the change of year sorted is an utter pain.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 13, 2019, 05:04:12 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,860,854 km2

Total Area         
 11,860,854    km2      
 229,478    km2   >    2010's average.
 473,845    k   >   2018
-233,106    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    17    k   
Peripheral Seas    10    k   gain
Central Seas__    3    k   gain
Other Seas___    4    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    9    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    7    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -5    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
         
Kara_________    11    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    6    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Area gain 17k, 16 k below average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from zero to -2 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 14, 2019, 07:00:14 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 13th, 2019:
     12,803,930 km2, an increase of 37,424 km2.
     2019 is the 4th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 14, 2019, 11:10:33 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,803,930 km2(January 13, 2019)

- Extent gain 37k, 3k more than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 147 k (1.8%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 85.3 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.18 million km2 (300k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 14, 2019, 02:10:34 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,877,339  km2

Total Area         
 11,877,339    km2      
 208,654    km2   >    2010's average.
 459,064    k   >   2018
-251,851    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    16    k   
Peripheral Seas    13    k   gain
Central Seas__   -1    k   loss
Other Seas___    4    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    14    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    8    k   gain
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______   -4    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss
         
Kara_________    6    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    8    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss

Area gain 16k, 20 k below average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 15, 2019, 05:29:14 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 14th, 2019:
     12,905,748 km2, a century increase of 101,818 km2.  :o  ;D
     2019 is now the 5th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Wherestheice on January 15, 2019, 05:47:29 AM
This is one very back and forth freeze season. Lowest on record to 14th to 3rd to 8th and on and on and on
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 15, 2019, 06:02:16 AM
This is one very back and forth freeze season. Lowest on record to 14th to 3rd to 8th and on and on and on

The Arctic is playing with our feelings  ;)
I just wish that it will not play too rough on August and September…
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Wherestheice on January 15, 2019, 06:07:57 AM
This is one very back and forth freeze season. Lowest on record to 14th to 3rd to 8th and on and on and on

The Arctic is playing with our feelings  ;)
I just wish that it will not play too rough on August and September…
True that. 2019 is gonna be an interesting year. Perhaps one of the unforgettable ones
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 15, 2019, 09:32:53 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,905,748 km2(January 14, 2019)

- Extent gain 102k, 49k more than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 95 k (1.1%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 85.8 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.24 million km2 (360k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on January 15, 2019, 10:41:38 AM
Gerontocrat, thank you for exposing the "power of the average". It strikes me how this winter the daily data is fluctuating wildly, yet the sum total returns to the decadal average again and again.
I guess the seasonal pattern in the Arctic depends on geography, bathymetry, currents and climate and far less on weather than would seem, and the difference between the decadal averages exposes the accumulated change.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 15, 2019, 02:20:22 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 14 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,885,247  km2

Total Area         
 11,885,247    km2      
 171,605    km2   >    2010's average.
 412,406    k   >   2018
-282,300    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    8    k   
Peripheral Seas    15    k   gain
Central Seas__   -11    k   loss
Other Seas___    4    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    13    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    10    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    12    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss
Area gain 8k, 25 k below the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on January 15, 2019, 05:56:23 PM
Gerontocrat, thank you for exposing the "power of the average". It strikes me how this winter the daily data is fluctuating wildly, yet the sum total returns to the decadal average again and again.
I guess the seasonal pattern in the Arctic depends on geography, bathymetry, currents and climate and far less on weather than would seem, and the difference between the decadal averages exposes the accumulated change.

Isn't this the difference between climate and weather?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 15, 2019, 06:33:28 PM
Isn't this the difference between climate and weather?
There is a big difference between having and average of 0°C on autumn-winter and 20°C on spring-summer, or having -20°C on autumn-winter and 40°C on spring-summer. Of course, both give the average of 10°C on the four seasons.

So, if we have the new temperatures for 30 years, some could say that the climate (on average) is the same, even that the weather is not.

So the question is if the ASI is swinging more abruptly than in the past. From my point of view, it can be happening, but it doesn't matter. The point is that we are getting use to have low values the whole year and we see weakness on the ice that is remaining.

2019 can be the lowest or the 10th lowest on record. But for the first 15 14 days of January, the 2005-2019 are the 15 [years] lowest on record.

The Arctic has changed.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tor Bejnar on January 15, 2019, 10:00:25 PM
Quote
So, if we have the new temperatures for 30 years, some could say that the climate (on average) is the same, even that the weather is not.

Per Tamino, in his January 2nd post on 'What is Climate? Really?' (https://tamino.wordpress.com/2019/01/02/what-is-climate-really/),
climate is not ever "just the average."
Quote
Climate is the probability density function of weather.

The catchy way I like to say it is:

Climate is the odds. Weather is the roll of the dice.
And the odds in January are never the same as the odds in July.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: uniquorn on January 16, 2019, 01:23:15 AM
This animation is so messy that I wasn't going to post it, but I think it shows how volatile ice extent/area is over recent years, particularly when the peripheral seas are freezing.
amsr2-uhh, dec1-jan13 from 2015/16-2018/19
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 16, 2019, 05:01:03 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 15th, 2019:
     12,988,350 km2, an increase of 82,602 km2.
     2019 is now the 7th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 16, 2019, 01:26:50 PM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 12,988,350 km2(January 15, 2019)

- Extent gain 83k, 38k more than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 68 k (0.8%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 86.3 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 14.26 million km2 (380k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.

At the end of its 10 day forecast GFS shows signs of the effect of the predicted further SSW and polar vortex split.
( https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2anom )
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 16, 2019, 02:06:28 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  11,902,753  km2

Total Area         
 11,902,753    km2      
 142,062    km2   >    2010's average.
 396,124    k   >   2018
-302,902    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    18    k   
Peripheral Seas    13    k   gain
Central Seas__   -16    k   loss
Other Seas___    20    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    11    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    6    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    22    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Area gain 18k, 29 k below the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.

At the end of its 10 day forecast GFS shows signs of the effect of the predicted further SSW and polar vortex split.
( https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2anom )
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 17, 2019, 05:39:18 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 16th, 2019:
     13,047,756 km2, an increase of 59,406 km2.
     2019 is now the 6th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 18, 2019, 05:32:38 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 17th, 2019:
     13,077,904 km2, an increase of 30,148 km2.
     2019 is the 6th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 19, 2019, 05:12:22 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 18th, 2019:
     13,097,955 km2, an increase of 20,051 km2.
     2019 is the 7th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 19, 2019, 11:03:01 AM
Is it 'flu or just a stinking winter cold?
But I am dragging my tortured body to the computer.

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,097,955 km2(January 18, 2019)

- Extent gain 20k, 3k less than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 48 k (0.6%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 87.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.28 million km2 (400k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1.5 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: b_lumenkraft on January 19, 2019, 11:09:58 AM
Get well soon Gerontocrat!
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 19, 2019, 03:16:45 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  12,066,835  km2

Total Area         
 12,066,835    km2      
 199,992    km2   >    2010's average.
 516,381    k   >   2018
-282,096    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    73    k   
Peripheral Seas    39    k   gain
Central Seas__    4    k   gain
Other Seas___    30    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    12    k   gain
Greenland____    9    k   gain
Barents ______    18    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -9    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_    8    k   gain
         
Kara_________    11    k   gain
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______   -5    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    15    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    12    k   gain
Area gain 73k, 40 k above the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1.5 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. e.g. the Bering Sea looks like it will have strong +ve temp anomalies for some of the time interspersed with days of strong -ve anomalies.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 20, 2019, 05:09:22 AM
Is it 'flu or just a stinking winter cold?
But I am dragging my tortured body to the computer.
Hi Gerontocrat.

Great to have you back! I hope that you get better really soon!
(not sure about the weather, though…)  ;) :D

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 19th, 2019:
     13,149,800 km2, an increase of 51,845 km2.
     2019 is the 7th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 20, 2019, 01:45:57 PM
Thanks, Juan. A stinking cold or a dose of 'flu is just an annual event that gives me an opportunity to moan and whine - "Woe is me, etc etc".

Weather - By the looks of it Little Old England is going to get a bit of the results of the SSW and PVS as the rest of the month unfolds. But nothing like Central and Eastern North America and Central Europe.

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,149,800 km2(January 19, 2019)

- Extent gain 52k, 5k less than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 43 k (0.5%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 87.7 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.29 million km2 (410k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
______________________________________________________________________
ps: *The 2010's average figure I use in the attached table excludes 2019. I exclude 2019 (from all JAXA and NSIDC tables and graphs) so that the difference of the current year with the 2010's decade to date average is not modified by the current year data.
______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 20, 2019, 02:24:26 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  12,131,260  km2

Total Area         
 12,131,260    km2      
 239,168    km2   >    2010's average.
 564,721    k   >   2018
-268,057    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    64    k   
Peripheral Seas    32    k   gain
Central Seas__    9    k   gain
Other Seas___    23    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    7    k   gain
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    19    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -8    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    11    k   gain
         
Kara_________    9    k   gain
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    8    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    13    k   gain
Area gain 64k, 40 k above the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: magnamentis on January 20, 2019, 04:44:03 PM
Is it 'flu or just a stinking winter cold?
But I am dragging my tortured body to the computer.

should you like to reduce your energy footprint and relieve your tortured body i recommend to move south, at least that's what i did for that matter, leaving my most beloved home in prague to find a new one in "andalucia" at least as far as my physical presence is concerned, paper-wise i'm still chinese LOL

Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: zufall on January 21, 2019, 09:39:44 AM
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Jan 20 extent: 13,206,730 km², up 56,930 km². Still 7th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 21, 2019, 11:42:37 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,206,730 km2(January 20, 2019)

- Extent gain 57k, 35k greater than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 8 k (0.1%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 87.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 50 days to minimum (11th March)

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.32 million km2 (440k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 21, 2019, 02:07:32 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 20 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) =  12,192,165  km2

Total Area         
 12,192,165    km2      
 276,206    km2   >    2010's average.
 591,077    k   >   2018
-262,178    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    61    k   
Peripheral Seas    35    k   gain
Central Seas__    17    k   gain
Other Seas___    9    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    8    k   gain
Greenland____    9    k   gain
Barents ______    17    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    12    k   gain
         
Kara_________    9    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain
Area gain 61k, 38 k above the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature varies from +1 to -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 22, 2019, 04:56:00 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 21st, 2019:
     13,242,328 km2, an increase of 35,598 km2.
     2019 is the 7th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 22, 2019, 11:36:50 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,242,328 km2(January 21, 2019)

- Extent gain 36k, 6k greater than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 2 k (0.0%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 88.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 49 days to minimum (11th March)

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.33 million km2 (450k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remaons close to zero degrees for the next week or more. This disguises even more the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 22, 2019, 02:23:36 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 21 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,263,089  km2

Total Area         
 12,263,089    km2      
 320,586    km2   >    2010's average.
 614,831    k   >   2018
-241,748    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    71    k   
Peripheral Seas    42    k   gain
Central Seas__    22    k   gain
Other Seas___    7    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    8    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    13    k   gain
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______    16    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    11    k   gain
         
Kara_________    4    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    7    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    7    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Area gain 71k, 45 k above the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains close to zero degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 23, 2019, 05:06:11 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 22nd, 2019:
     13,256,828 km2, an increase of 14,500 km2.
     2019 is the 7th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 23, 2019, 08:20:30 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,256,828 km2(January 22, 2019)

- Extent gain 15k, 22k LESS than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 24 k (0.3%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 88.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 48 days to minimum (11th March)

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.31 million km2 (430k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains close to zero and -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises even more the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 23, 2019, 02:05:51 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 22 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,309,617  km2

Total Area         
 12,309,617    km2      
 340,721    km2   >    2010's average.
 625,983    k   >   2018
-226,485    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    47    k   
Peripheral Seas    26    k   gain
Central Seas__    19    k   gain
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    8    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    6    k   gain
Greenland____   -0    k   loss
Barents ______    13    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    7    k   gain
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
Area gain 47 k, 21 k above the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains close to zero & -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: jdallen on January 24, 2019, 01:51:51 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 22nd, 2019:
     13,256,828 km2, an increase of 14,500 km2.
     2019 is the 7th lowest on record.
Kind of hard to be more middle-of-the-pack than this. Variation in the top 15 is only about 4% either way around 2019...
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 24, 2019, 04:54:03 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 23rd, 2019:
     13,292,011 km2, an increase of 35,183 km2.
     2019 is the 7th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 24, 2019, 06:46:38 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,292,011 km2(January 23, 2019)

- Extent gain 35k, 1k less than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 25 k (0.3%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 88.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 47 days to minimum (11th March)

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.31 million km2 (430k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains close to zero and -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises even more the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 24, 2019, 03:22:08 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 23 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,343,724  km2

Total Area         
 12,343,724    km2      
 343,984    km2   >    2010's average.
 628,493    k   >   2018
-217,603    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    34    k   
Peripheral Seas    16    k   gain
Central Seas__    19    k   gain
Other Seas___   -1    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    5    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    4    k   gain
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______    11    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    7    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
Area gain 34 k, 3 k above the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains close to zero degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 25, 2019, 05:16:15 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 24th, 2019:
     13,332,401 km2, an increase of 40,390 km2.
     2019 is now the 6th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 25, 2019, 08:26:04 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,332,401 km2(January 24, 2019)

- Extent gain 40k, 2k less than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 27 k (0.3%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 89.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 46 days to minimum (11th March)

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.30 million km2 (410k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains close to zero  for the next week or more. This disguises even more the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
[/quote]
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 25, 2019, 08:57:44 AM
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains close to zero  for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.

The attached image shows an example of the great variation in temperature anomalies over various parts of the Arctic that seem to be a feature since mid January.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 25, 2019, 02:48:11 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 24 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,391,369  km2

Total Area         
 12,391,369    km2      
 360,943    km2   >    2010's average.
 634,376    k   >   2018
-190,482    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    48    k   
Peripheral Seas    19    k   gain
Central Seas__    23    k   gain
Other Seas___    6    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    5    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    9    k   gain
Greenland____   -7    k   loss
Barents ______    12    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    7    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
         
Kara_________    10    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    5    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Area gain 48 k, 17 k above the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains close to zero degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Feeltheburn on January 26, 2019, 05:32:10 AM
This is one very back and forth freeze season. Lowest on record to 14th to 3rd to 8th and on and on and on

The wild fluctuations are as much the result of wild ups and downs of previous years as it is this year's ice. All such fluctuations might be actual wild swings in sea ice or they might be statistical noise resulting from large sections of ice crossing back and forth across the 15% threshold.

Extent numbers and maps of sea ice are based on interpretations of data and are not understood to be absolute.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Feeltheburn on January 26, 2019, 05:41:26 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,332,401 km2(January 24, 2019)

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.30 million km2 (410k > 2018).


I suppose if one had voted that the high would be 14.125 to 14.375 they would be feeling pretty good! hehe
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 26, 2019, 06:34:09 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 25th, 2019:
     13,346,587 km2, an increase of 14,186 km2.
     2019 is the 6th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Alexander555 on January 26, 2019, 11:32:11 AM
How is the Bering Sea doing compared to last year ?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 26, 2019, 12:29:00 PM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,346,587 km2(January 25, 2019)

- Extent gain 14k, 21k less than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 49 k (0.5%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 89.7 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 45 days to maximum (11th March)

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.28 million km2 (400k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains close to zero and -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises even more the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on January 26, 2019, 01:35:28 PM
How is the Bering Sea doing compared to last year ?
Bering is on the high side compared to all recent years, though low compared to 2012 and 2013. All in all, seems normal. I wonder if it will go higher in Feb-March, or plateau at current level generating another low maximum. My bet is on going higher.
Shown is AMSR2 sea ice area, courtesy of Wipneus.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 26, 2019, 02:46:25 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 25 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,430,755  km2

Total Area         
 12,430,755    km2      
 376,033    km2   >    2010's average.
 634,896    k   >   2018
-166,937    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    39    k   
Peripheral Seas    19    k   gain
Central Seas__    18    k   gain
Other Seas___    2    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    5    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
Greenland____   -8    k   loss
Barents ______    11    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________    11    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Area gain 39 k, 15 k above the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains close to zero and -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 27, 2019, 06:06:39 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 26th, 2019:
     13,370,205 km2, an increase of 23,618 km2.
     2019 is now the 7th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 27, 2019, 06:14:56 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,370,205 km2(January 26, 2019)

- Extent gain 24k, 7k more than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 41 k (0.5%) below the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 89.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 44 days to maximum (11th March)

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.29 million km2 (410k > 2018).

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains close to zero and -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises even more the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 27, 2019, 07:34:49 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 26 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,450,449  km2

Total Area         
 12,450,449    km2      
 368,740    km2   >    2010's average.
 617,367    k   >   2018
-159,400    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    20    k   
Peripheral Seas    4    k   gain
Central Seas__    11    k   gain
Other Seas___    5    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -5    k   loss
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______    13    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    9    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    8    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -5    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain
Area gain 20 k, 7k less than the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains close to zero and -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 28, 2019, 04:58:02 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 27th, 2019:
     13,449,609 km2, an increase of 79,404 km2.  ::)
     2019 is now the 8th lowest on record (and close to become the 10th.  8) ).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 28, 2019, 05:03:33 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 27th, 2019:
     13,449,609 km2, an increase of 79,404 km2.  ::)
     2019 is now the 8th lowest on record (and close to become the 10th.  8) ).

This abnormal increase, could be a problem with the sensor today?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: AmbiValent on January 28, 2019, 08:16:28 AM
This abnormal increase, could be a problem with the sensor today?
Last time, grey areas were counted towards extent, so I think that abnormal increase isn't actually there.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 28, 2019, 11:00:13 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,449,609 km2(January 27, 2019)

- Extent gain 79k, 77k more than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 36 k (0.4%) ABOVE the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 89.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 43 days to maximum (11th March)

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.37 million km2 (480k > 2018).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1 and -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises even more the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.

The 79k increase is not unprecedented by any means (see graph Arc2 attached) but is a bit of a mystery (see next post).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 28, 2019, 11:07:47 AM
The 79k increase is not unprecedented. The VISHOP /JAXA image for the day does not show the missing bits as in that from the University of Bremen.

But where did the increase occur? The temperature map for the 27th from GFS shows +ve temperature anomalies for all the areas of the peripheral seas where remaining sea ice extent gain is happening.

So a bit of a mystery.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 28, 2019, 12:23:05 PM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,449,609 km2(January 27, 2019)

- Extent gain 79k, 77k more than average gain on this day.
There has to be a typing mistake here. Maybe 47k more than average gain?

The 79k increase is not unprecedented by any means (see graph Arc2 attached) but is a bit of a mystery (see next post).
Thank you for your answer, Gerontocrat.  :)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: uniquorn on January 28, 2019, 12:40:17 PM
amsr2-uhh jan26 and 27 for reference.
Wipneus' charts don't show any drastic changes in the Bering though. https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 28, 2019, 02:44:56 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 27 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,471,393  km2

Total Area         
 12,471,393    km2      
 363,696    km2   >    2010's average.
 603,210    k   >   2018
-156,889    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    21    k   
Peripheral Seas    4    k   gain
Central Seas__    2    k   gain
Other Seas___    15    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -5    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    14    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
         
Kara_________    8    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    17    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
Area gain 20 k, 7k less than the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1 and -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises even more the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. hence sudden changes in gain and loss in peripheral seas (e.g. Bering, Okhotsk, Baffin, Greenland).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on January 28, 2019, 04:07:21 PM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,449,609 km2(January 27, 2019)

- Extent gain 79k, 77k more than average gain on this day.
There has to be a typing mistake here. Maybe 47k more than average gain?
Not a mistake. Gc quotes the difference from the actual daily average, not from the smooth polynomial approximation of it. The actual daily average fluctuates quite a lot, as can be seen in the chart.
I did wonder in the past what is better to use as quoted baseline, the smoothed or actual average. But luckily for me I'm not the one who has to decide...
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 28, 2019, 06:04:03 PM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,449,609 km2(January 27, 2019)

- Extent gain 79k, 77k more than average gain on this day.
There has to be a typing mistake here. Maybe 47k more than average gain?
Not a mistake. Gc quotes the difference from the actual daily average, not from the smooth polynomial approximation of it. The actual daily average fluctuates quite a lot, as can be seen in the chart.
I did wonder in the past what is better to use as quoted baseline, the smoothed or actual average. But luckily for me I'm not the one who has to decide...
The interest to me is that a 10 year average shows such high daily variations. When I made the spreadsheet I thought using a 10 year average would do the smoothing for me. It did not so I chucked in the polynomial (x2) to get a clearer view of the trend.

It just shows that an above average gain on one day coinciding with a very low average day's gain can make one blink - the restless ocean springing a little surprise.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Feeltheburn on January 29, 2019, 04:46:14 AM
First time NSID over 14,000,000 km2 for 2019.

14,051,000

I wonder if it will be able to hit 15,000,000 for the first time in years?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 29, 2019, 05:06:14 AM
The interest to me is that a 10 year average shows such high daily variations.
The same happened to me, so I decided to stop using the original ADS NIPR average and just look at your data...  ;)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 28th, 2019:
     13,477,989 km2, an increase of 28,380 km2.
     2019 is now the 10th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Sterks on January 29, 2019, 09:12:58 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,449,609 km2(January 27, 2019)

- Extent gain 79k, 77k more than average gain on this day.
There has to be a typing mistake here. Maybe 47k more than average gain?
Not a mistake. Gc quotes the difference from the actual daily average, not from the smooth polynomial approximation of it. The actual daily average fluctuates quite a lot, as can be seen in the chart.
I did wonder in the past what is better to use as quoted baseline, the smoothed or actual average. But luckily for me I'm not the one who has to decide...
I see it as the difference between providing data or information.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 29, 2019, 11:27:22 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,477,989 km2(January 28, 2019)

- Extent gain 28k, 15k more than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 51 k (0.6%) ABOVE the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 90.0 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 42 days to maximum (11th March)

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.38 million km2 (500k > 2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1 and -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises even more the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: AmbiValent on January 29, 2019, 12:16:57 PM
Is the data the two-day average? Then the one-day error data will affect both days' published values, but the 28k increase would be real, since it exchanged a day with error-less data with another such day. And tomorrow the error should be gone completely.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 29, 2019, 02:27:42 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 28 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,489,322  km2

         
 Total Area         
 12,489,322    km2      
 358,854    km2   >    2010's average.
 599,319    k   >   2018
-165,841    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    18    k   
Peripheral Seas    5    k   gain
Central Seas__   -6    k   loss
Other Seas___    19    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -7    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    11    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
         
Kara_________    9    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    20    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
Area gain 18 k, 5k less than the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1 and -1 degrees for the next week or more. This disguises even more the highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic. hence sudden changes in gain and loss in peripheral seas (e.g. Bering, Okhotsk, Baffin, Greenland).

And now extreme warmth in and beyond the Bering Strait reducing area in the Chukchi, Beaufort and Central Arctic seas as well as the Bering..
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 30, 2019, 04:45:59 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 29th, 2019:
     13,474,856 km2, a drop of -3,133 km2.
     2019 is now the 7th lowest on record.

(Seems that there was a sensor problem on Jan 27th, that made noise on 27th and 28th. With this drop, back to normal).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 30, 2019, 07:52:53 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,474,856 km2(January 29, 2019)

Was there a sensor error on 27th Jan ? The 79k increase on that day was not that unusual

- Extent loss 3k, 38k less than average gain on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 13 k (0.1%) ABOVE the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 90.4 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 41 days to maximum (11th March)

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.34 million km2 (460k > 2017 - record low maximum).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between close to zero for the next 4 days and then rises to over +2 degrees in the following week. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may become even more extreme.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 30, 2019, 08:14:57 AM
As I said on the previous post...

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between close to zero for the next 4 days and then rises to over +2 degrees in the following week. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may become even more extreme.

Here is a GIF of temp anomalies over the Arctic for the next week from GFS to show what I mean
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: AmbiValent on January 30, 2019, 10:20:21 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,474,856 km2(January 29, 2019)

Was there a sensor error on 27th Jan ? The 79k increase on that day was not that unusual

Yes, it was showing as grey "lack of data" in the images of that day.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: uniquorn on January 30, 2019, 11:10:53 AM
amsr2-uhh and jaxa vishop images have been corrected for the 27th
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 30, 2019, 12:00:24 PM
amsr2-uhh and jaxa vishop images have been corrected for the 27th
Data on the JAXA file plot_extent_n_v2 (1).csv  not changed yet
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 30, 2019, 02:14:17 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 29 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,493,988  km2

         
 Total Area         
 12,493,988    km2      
 342,152    km2   >    2010's average.
 596,583    k   >   2018
-193,996    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    5    k   
Peripheral Seas   -8    k   loss
Central Seas__   -9    k   loss
Other Seas___    21    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -7    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -4    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
         
Kara_________    4    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    22    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Area gain 5 k, 16k less than the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between close to zero for the next 4 days and then rises to over +2 degrees in the following week. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may become even more extreme. Hence sudden changes in gain and loss in peripheral seas (e.g. Bering, Okhotsk, Baffin, Greenland).

And now extreme warmth in and beyond the Bering Strait reducing area in the Chukchi, Beaufort and Central Arctic seas as well as the Bering..
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: uniquorn on January 30, 2019, 05:52:19 PM
amsr2-uhh and jaxa vishop images have been corrected for the 27th
Data on the JAXA file plot_extent_n_v2 (1).csv  not changed yet
No, possibly the data was correct. The images faulty. Hamburg and Bremen looked different
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on January 30, 2019, 08:25:28 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 29 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,493,988  km2


         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    22    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain


If I look at the table, in the last two days only the increase in Okhotsk made up for the overall loss of all the other seas...
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 31, 2019, 05:39:06 AM
I am not able to access the ADS NIPR VISHOP website.  :(
If someone else can do it or wait for Gerontocrat.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: uniquorn on January 31, 2019, 11:52:41 AM
 edit: showing 29th, not updated
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 31, 2019, 02:08:49 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 30 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,505,054  km2

         
 Total Area         
 12,505,054    km2      
 326,737    km2   >    2010's average.
 589,928    k   >   2018
-214,220    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    11    k   
Peripheral Seas   -15    k   loss
Central Seas__   -6    k   loss
Other Seas___    32    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -7    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -8    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    25    k   gain
St Lawrence___    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Area gain 11 k, 15k less than the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between close to zero for the next 3 days and then rises to over +2 degrees in the following week. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may become even more extreme. Hence sudden changes in gain and loss in peripheral seas (e.g. Bering, Okhotsk, Baffin, Greenland).

And now extreme warmth in and beyond the Bering Strait reducing area in the Chukchi, Beaufort and Central Arctic seas as well as the Bering..

Also of note is that without the Okhotsk area gain of 25k there would be an area loss of 14k on this day. (similar spotted by Stephan yesterday).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 01, 2019, 06:23:01 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 30th, 2019:
     13,499,512 km2, an increase of 24,656 km2.
     
January 31th, 2019:
     13,479,877 km2, a drop of -19,635 km2.
     2019 is now the 6th lowest on record.

Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 01, 2019, 10:36:16 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,479,877 km2(January 31, 2019)

- Extent loss 20k, 63k less than average gain of 43 k on this day.
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 68 k (0.7%) ABOVE the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 91.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 39 days to maximum (11th March)

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.26 million km2 (380k > 2017's record low maximum). This is in contrast with using a polynomial trend line projection, which produces a max of around 13.75 million km2 on the 21st February. The Perils of Prediction.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between close to zero for the next 4 days and then rises to over +2 degrees in the following week. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may become even more extreme.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 01, 2019, 02:27:33 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 31 January 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,507,869  km2

         
Total Area         
 12,507,869    km2      
 298,987    km2   >    2010's average.
 554,389    k   >   2018
-242,036    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain    3    k   
Peripheral Seas   -15    k   loss
Central Seas__   -7    k   loss
Other Seas___    25    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -4    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    4    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -13    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    16    k   gain
St Lawrence___    5    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Area gain 3 k, 28k less than the 2010's average for the day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between close to zero for the next 3 days and then rises to over +2 degrees in the following week. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may become even more extreme. Hence sudden changes in gain and loss in peripheral seas (e.g. Bering, Okhotsk, Baffin, Greenland).

Also of note is that without the Okhotsk area gain of 16k there would be an area loss of 13k on this day (and the previous 3 days). (spotted first by Stephan ).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on February 01, 2019, 10:41:02 PM
If it were not for the Okhotsk Sea we would see a decline in Artic Sea Ice area the last four days...
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 02, 2019, 05:03:19 AM
If it were not for the Okhotsk Sea we would see a decline in Artic Sea Ice area the last four days...

Well, two consecutive declines...

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 1st, 2019:
     13,426,750 km2, a drop of -53,127 km2.  :o
     2019 is now the 4th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 02, 2019, 08:18:45 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,426,750 km2(February 1, 2019)

- Extent loss 53k, 79k less than average gain of 26 k on this day.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 147 k (1.6%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 91.5 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 38 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.19 million km2 (310k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.05 million km2, (170k >2017). This is in contrast with using a polynomial trend line projection, which produces a max of around 13.6 million km2 on the 15th February.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between zero and +3 degrees over the next week. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may become even more extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 02, 2019, 02:19:47 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 1 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,494,771   km2

         
Total Area         
 12,494,771    km2      
 250,738    km2   >    2010's average.
 481,128    k   >   2018
-282,849    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain   -13    k   
Peripheral Seas   -20    k   loss
Central Seas__   -5    k   loss
Other Seas___    12    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    3    k   gain
Greenland____   -3    k   loss
Barents ______   -19    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___    7    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain
Area LOSS 13 k, 48k less than the 2010's average gain of 35k on this day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between zero and +3 degrees over the next week. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may become even more extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.Hence sudden changes in gain and loss in peripheral seas (e.g.s Bering, Okhotsk, Baffin, Greenland , Barents).

In the last 2 days it is the Barents that is losing area rapidly.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 03, 2019, 05:00:28 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 2nd, 2019:
     13,447,260 km2, an increase of 20,510 km2.
     2019 is the 4th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 03, 2019, 05:14:12 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,447,260 km2(February 2, 2019)

- Extent gain 21k, 18k less than average gain of 39 k on this day.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 165 k (1.8%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 91.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 37 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.17 million km2 (390k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.03 million km2, (170k >2017). This is in contrast with using a polynomial trend line projection, which produces a max of around 13.6 million km2 on the 15th February.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1 and +3 degrees over the next week. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.
[/quote]
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 03, 2019, 02:16:36 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 2 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,466,241   km2
         
Total Area         
 12,466,241    km2      
 180,180    km2   >    2010's average.
 367,241    k   >   2018
-334,004    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain   -29    k   
Peripheral Seas   -28    k   loss
Central Seas__    1    k   gain
Other Seas___   -2    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -7    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______   -16    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -7    k   loss
St Lawrence___    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Area LOSS 29 k, 71k less than the 2010's average gain of 42k on this day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1 and +3 degrees over the next week. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may become even more extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.Hence sudden changes in gain and loss in peripheral seas (e.g.s Bering, Okhotsk, Baffin, Greenland , Barents).

As you can see from the last table, all the peripheral seas lost area on this day.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 04, 2019, 05:09:12 AM
More data, SAT for January. Second lowest Arctic-wide for the last 15 years, all sectors down compared to last three years:
Extend is not showing the increase that it should have after the cold January.
It is 4th lowest and it could be 3rd lowest in a couple of days.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 3rd, 2019:
     13,428,392 km2, a drop of -18,868 km2.
     2019 is the 4th lowest on record.
PS: 2010 has not official value. Average used.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: jdallen on February 04, 2019, 08:09:07 AM
More data, SAT for January. Second lowest Arctic-wide for the last 15 years, all sectors down compared to last three years:
Extend is not showing the increase that it should have after the cold January.
It is 4th lowest and it could be 3rd lowest in a couple of days.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 3rd, 2019:
     13,428,392 km2, a drop of -18,868 km2.
     2019 is the 4th lowest on record.
PS: 2010 has not official value. Average used.
Here is a relevant question; has extent dropped previously when the overall extent was so low and at the peak of the season?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 04, 2019, 09:02:21 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,428,392 km2(February 3, 2019)

- Extent loss 19k, 49k less than average gain of 30 k on this day.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 214 k (2.3%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 92.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 36 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.12 million km2 (240k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 13.99 million km2, (110k >2017). This is in contrast with using a polynomial trend line projection, which produces a max of around 13.55 million km2 on the 10th February - now that would be a surprise.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1 and +3 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.

In my not very humble opinion a very cold January Arctic-wide can be somewhat irrelevant as far as extent is concerned, as the main Arctic seas are pretty much frozen up by end January in every year. What matters is temperatures, winds and ocean currents at the periphery, especially the Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay. This determines ice gain and loss in these peripheral seas that determine the final outcome of maximum for the year.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on February 04, 2019, 09:29:59 AM
Here is a relevant question; has extent dropped previously when the overall extent was so low and at the peak of the season?
Yes. It is possible to see in JCG's chart several similar drops around this time of year.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: binntho on February 04, 2019, 10:35:36 AM
Here is a relevant question; has extent dropped previously when the overall extent was so low and at the peak of the season?
Yes. It is possible to see in JCG's chart several similar drops around this time of year.
The drop in the last 5 days is some 70.000 km2, while 2016 dropped 150.000 km2 in four days starting on the 2nd of February.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 04, 2019, 01:24:49 PM
Here is a relevant question; has extent dropped previously when the overall extent was so low and at the peak of the season?
Yes. It is possible to see in JCG's chart several similar drops around this time of year.
The drop in the last 5 days is some 70.000 km2, while 2016 dropped 150.000 km2 in four days starting on the 2nd of February.
I think we only notice these variations at this time of year because they are above and below zero.   In any year there are several days or even weeks of daily change of similar or greater amounts above or below the average .

ps: I am looking forward to March when Neven has to decide when to open the 2019 melting thread, and is bombarded with unwanted advice and demands from all sides as daily extent change wobbles around above and below zero.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 04, 2019, 02:04:20 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 3 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,431,931   km2
         
Total Area         
 12,431,931    km2      
 102,041    km2   >    2010's average.
 232,412    k   >   2018
-387,353    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain   -34    k   
Peripheral Seas   -26    k   loss
Central Seas__   -3    k   loss
Other Seas___   -5    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -12    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
Greenland____   -3    k   loss
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___    7    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Area LOSS 34 k, 78k less than the 2010's average gain of 44k on this day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1 and +3 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme.

In my not very humble opinion a very cold January Arctic-wide can be somewhat irrelevant as far as the final resulting maximum is concerned, as the main Arctic seas are pretty much frozen up by end January in every year. What matters is temperatures, winds and ocean currents at the periphery, especially the Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay. This determines ice gain and loss in these peripheral seas that determine the final outcome of maximum for the year.
As you can see from the last table, all the peripheral seas lost area on this day (and the day before).

ps: The very cold January does seem to have bumped up sea ice thickness - presumably this could / will affect the speed of extent and area losses later in the melting season.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: uniquorn on February 04, 2019, 02:24:40 PM
Quote
ps: The very cold January does seem to have bumped up sea ice thickness
Yes, should help a bit.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Dharma Rupa on February 04, 2019, 03:10:09 PM
ps: I am looking forward to March when Neven has to decide when to open the 2019 melting thread, and is bombarded with unwanted advice and demands from all sides as daily extent change wobbles around above and below zero.

When did you stop beating your wife?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Neven on February 04, 2019, 03:28:17 PM
ps: I am looking forward to March when Neven has to decide when to open the 2019 melting thread, and is bombarded with unwanted advice and demands from all sides as daily extent change wobbles around above and below zero.

Yes, that's my favourite time of year!  ;D
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: jdallen on February 04, 2019, 05:38:31 PM
Here is a relevant question; has extent dropped previously when the overall extent was so low and at the peak of the season?
Yes. It is possible to see in JCG's chart several similar drops around this time of year.
The drop in the last 5 days is some 70.000 km2, while 2016 dropped 150.000 km2 in four days starting on the 2nd of February.
I think we only notice these variations at this time of year because they are above and below zero.   In any year there are several days or even weeks of daily change of similar or greater amounts above or below the average .

ps: I am looking forward to March when Neven has to decide when to open the 2019 melting thread, and is bombarded with unwanted advice and demands from all sides as daily extent change wobbles around above and below zero.
Serves me right for trying to reply on my phone instead of sitting down where I can type.

My curiosity is more nuanced than just drops at this time of year.  I'm also reflecting on the size of the pack when the drop occurs.  That we've had similar drops at this time of year is no surprise to me.  I'm wondering, going back, what similar events we've had at similar levels of coverage.

So, there is a timing issue, but it has more to do with when the pack has passed the current threshold in the past, and what sort of volatility it had at those junctures. 

What's sticking in my head are questions actually more oriented towards ice quality and total heat content, which are probably unanswerable with the instrumentation currently available.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 04, 2019, 06:43:54 PM
ps: I am looking forward to March when Neven has to decide when to open the 2019 melting thread, and is bombarded with unwanted advice and demands from all sides as daily extent change wobbles around above and below zero.

When did you stop beating your wife?

Never.

I divorced her (or did she divorce me? ) in the early 1990's. Neven is not really an adequate substitute but in the absence of a wife this misogynist can only use that that is available to hand.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 04, 2019, 09:01:44 PM
ps: I am looking forward to March when Neven has to decide when to open the 2019 melting thread, and is bombarded with unwanted advice and demands from all sides as daily extent change wobbles around above and below zero.

Yes, that's my favourite time of year!  ;D

Then we can start it on the beginning of February!
Who bets that 13,499,512 km2 on Jan 30th is the max?  ;)   ;D
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 05, 2019, 05:30:20 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 4th, 2019:
     13,433,729 km2, an increase of only 5,337 km2.
     2019 is the 4th lowest on record.
PS: 2010 has not official value. Average used.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 05, 2019, 07:46:10 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,433,729 km2(February 4, 2019)

- Extent gain 5k, 13k less than average gain of 18 k on this day.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 227 k (2.5%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 92.4 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 35 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.10 million km2 (220k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 13.97 million km2, (90k >2017). This is in contrast with using a polynomial trend line projection, which produces a max of around 13.50 million km2 on the 8th February - now that would be a surprise.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.

Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 05, 2019, 02:17:03 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 4 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,399,649  km2
         
Total Area         
 12,399,649    km2      
 31,751    km2   >    2010's average.
 124,897    k   >   2018
-436,799    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain   -32    k   
Peripheral Seas   -21    k   loss
Central Seas__   -12    k   loss
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -9    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
Greenland____   -3    k   loss
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -11    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Area LOSS 32 k, 70k less than the 2010's average gain of 38k on this day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.

Temperatures, winds and ocean currents at the periphery, especially the Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay will determine ice gain and loss in these peripheral seas that in turn determine the final outcome of maximum for the year.  As you can see from the last table, all the peripheral seas lost area on this day (and the 2 days before that).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on February 05, 2019, 09:54:24 PM
Slight losses almost everywhere. Did that missing ice sink in the end?   ;)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 06, 2019, 04:59:53 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 5th, 2019:
     13,441,866 km2, an increase of only 8,137 km2.
     2019 is now the 3rd lowest on record.
PS: 2010 has not official value. Average used.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 06, 2019, 09:07:36 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,441,866 km2(February 5, 2019)

- Extent gain 8k, 1k less than average gain of 9 k on this day.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 228 k (2.5%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 92.5 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 34 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.10 million km2 (220k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 13.96 million km2, (80k >2017). This is in contrast with using a polynomial trend line projection, which produces a max of just under 13.50 million km2 on about the 8th February - now that would be a surprise.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 06, 2019, 02:27:15 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,386,294 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,386,294    km2      
-7,262    km2   <    2010's average.
 67,396    k   >   2018
-471,486    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total Gain   -13    k loss
   
Peripheral Seas   -20    k   loss
Central Seas__   -10    k   loss
Other Seas___    17    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -11    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    6    k   gain
St Lawrence___    12    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Area LOSS 13 k, 39k less than the 2010's average gain of 26k on this day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.

Temperatures, winds and ocean currents at the periphery, especially the Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay will determine ice gain and loss in these peripheral seas that in turn determine the final outcome of maximum for the year.  As you can see from the last table, all the peripheral seas on the  Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay lost area on this day (and the 3 days before that).

In contrast, the Okhotsk and St Lawrence are now gaining area strongly.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 06, 2019, 03:39:16 PM
Some area graphs to show recent area losses on some peripheral seas,
and
that the Central Arctic Sea does have a vulnerable edge even in winter.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 07, 2019, 05:57:40 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 6th, 2019:
     13,513,236 km2, an increase of 71,370 km2.
     2019 is still the 3rd lowest on record.
PS: Important increase.  :) Now above the 13.5 M km2 mark.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Rodius on February 07, 2019, 06:22:35 AM
When I first saw the polynomial trend line I thought it was completely wrong.
I have no idea how it is calculated, but to me it is way off.

Anyway, given the observations are following it so closely, and seeing how terrible the polynomial trend line is compared to other years, I would rather observations stopped follow that line.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: interstitial on February 07, 2019, 08:00:57 AM
Prior to the inflection point using a polynomial trend line to predict a minimum or maximum is just bad math as they are unduly influenced by the last few data points. I avoided earlier comment because I appreciate the many tables and graphs produced and how much work that is.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 07, 2019, 08:17:30 AM
Prior to the inflection point using a polynomial trend line to predict a minimum or maximum is just bad math as they are unduly influenced by the last few data points. I avoided earlier comment because I appreciate the many tables and graphs produced and how much work that is.

Of course it is bad math. That is why in my commentary I call that section "The perils of projections". It is a nice demo of how a trend line can have an almost perfect correlation to
 a series of observations but is of zero value for looking at projections of the future.

Now that demo is done I will remove it.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 07, 2019, 08:27:32 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,513,236 km2(February 6, 2019)

- Extent gain 71k, 49k more than the average gain of 22 k on this day.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record (just),
- Freezing to date from minimum is 179 k (1.9%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 92.7 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 33 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.15 million km2 (270k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.02 million km2, (140k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 07, 2019, 02:09:01 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 6 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,395,235 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,395,235    km2      
-15,481    km2   <    2010's average.
 66,840    k   >   2018
-487,187    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    9    k   0
Peripheral Seas   -12    k   loss
Central Seas__   -9    k   loss
Other Seas___    29    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -14    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    20    k   gain
St Lawrence___    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Area GAIN 9 k, 8k less than the 2010's average gain of 17k on this day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.

Temperatures, winds and ocean currents at the periphery, especially the Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay will determine ice gain and loss in these peripheral seas that in turn determine the final outcome of maximum for the year. 

Contrast the Okhotsk - strong gain, with the Bering - strong loss.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on February 07, 2019, 08:51:09 PM
Prior to the inflection point using a polynomial trend line to predict a minimum or maximum is just bad math as they are unduly influenced by the last few data points. I avoided earlier comment because I appreciate the many tables and graphs produced and how much work that is.

Of course it is bad math. That is why in my commentary I call that section "The perils of projections". It is a nice demo of how a trend line can have an almost perfect correlation to
 a series of observations but is of zero value for looking at projections of the future.

Now that demo is done I will remove it.

Whenever you fit a line to data you are suggesting a correlation, or not, as the case may be. Typically a hypothesis will be built around that correlation, a model that fits the data together, and perhaps suggests a causative mechanism. The value in the model is in how skillfully or not it fits future data.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 08, 2019, 05:12:32 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 7th, 2019:
     13,519,007 km2, an increase of only 5,771 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: miki on February 08, 2019, 05:50:27 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 7th, 2019:
     13,519,007 km2, an increase of only 5,771 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.

Thanks, Juan! Really appreciated. Here every night for Geronto's and your updates.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 08, 2019, 09:32:15 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,519,007 km2(February 7, 2019)

- Extent gain 6k, 16k less than the average gain of 22k on this day.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 196 k (2.1%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 92.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 32 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.14 million km2 (260k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.04 million km2, (160k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic will remain.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 08, 2019, 03:32:23 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 7 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,421,737 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,421,737    km2      
 11,711    km2   >    2010's average.
 150,697    k   >   2018
-485,929    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    26    k   0
Peripheral Seas   -0    k   loss
Central Seas__   -12    k   loss
Other Seas___    39    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -11    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    8    k   gain
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    30    k   gain
St Lawrence___    5    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Area GAIN 26 k, 27k more than the 2010's average loss of 1k on this day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.

Temperatures, winds and ocean currents at the periphery, especially the Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay will determine ice gain and loss in these peripheral seas that in turn determine the final outcome of maximum for the year. 

Contrast the Okhotsk -30k extremely strong gain, with the Bering - 11 k strong loss.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on February 08, 2019, 08:24:19 PM
If Okhotsk Sea were excluded from the calculation we would see continuous losses of Arctic Sea Ice Area from 28 Jan on...
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: uniquorn on February 08, 2019, 08:28:17 PM
If Okhotsk Sea were excluded from the calculation we would see continuous losses of Arctic Sea Ice Area from 28 Jan on...
Does this happen often at this time of year? (I mostly do images, not the spreadsheets)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on February 08, 2019, 09:08:17 PM
I just checked the 2018 sea ice area and extent data thread, but early last year gerontocrat didn't update us with daily sea-wise area data. At this time of the year Okhotsk was strongly rising, so did in parts Baffin and St. Lawrence whereas Bering strongly declined.
At this time of the year all the major central seas are more or less 99-100% covered by sea ice, and a strong increase (or decrease) in one or two of the peripherical seas may change the direction of the total sea ice area (or extent). Therefore I don't think this actual "dependence" on the Okhotsk Sea is unusual.
Maybe gerontocrat can help with figures/tables from last February.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 08, 2019, 09:09:35 PM
If Okhotsk Sea were excluded from the calculation we would see continuous losses of Arctic Sea Ice Area from 28 Jan on...
Does this happen often at this time of year? (I mostly do images, not the spreadsheets)
Yep - late to freeze, early to melt. 2018 was also really cold in that sea while the Bering was warm.
Happening a bit like that now this year.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: uniquorn on February 08, 2019, 09:29:44 PM
Thanks, so possibly a similar increase if cold air is dragged across Okhotsk into the Pacific.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 09, 2019, 07:48:59 AM
Thanks, Juan! Really appreciated. Here every night for Geronto's and your updates.
You are welcome. And thanks everyone for the "like"s!
Excuse me that I was late today... Friday night!  ;)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 8th, 2019:
     13,557,113 km2, an increase of 38,106 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 09, 2019, 09:30:16 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,557,113 km2(February 8, 2019)

- Extent gain 38k, 4k more than the average gain of 22k on this day.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 191 k (2.1%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 93.3 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 31 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.14 million km2 (260k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.04 million km2, (160k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic will remain.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 09, 2019, 02:52:16 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,460,151 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,460,151    km2      
 57,438    km2   >    2010's average.
 285,328    k   >   2018
-473,579    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    38    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    10    k   gain
Central Seas__   -15    k   loss
Other Seas___    43    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -9    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    14    k   gain
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______    2    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    34    k   gain
St Lawrence___    7    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Area GAIN 38 k, 45k more than the 2010's average loss of 7k on this day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.

Temperatures, winds and ocean currents at the periphery, especially the Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay will determine ice gain and loss in these peripheral seas that in turn determine the final outcome of maximum for the year.  Looking at the tables shows how cold and warmth moves around the Arctic.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 10, 2019, 05:40:38 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 9th, 2019:
     13,607,932 km2, an increase of 50,819 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 10, 2019, 06:28:42 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,607,932 km2(February 9, 2019)

- Extent gain 51k, 27k more than the average gain of 24k on this day.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 164 k (1.8%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 93.5 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 30 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.17 million km2 (290k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.10 million km2, (220k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic will remain.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 10, 2019, 05:29:03 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 9 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,484,470 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,484,470    km2      
 82,400    km2   >    2010's average.
 386,317    k   >   2018
-481,033    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    24    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    12    k   gain
Central Seas__   -9    k   loss
Other Seas___    21    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -15    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    17    k   gain
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______    6    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -8    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    9    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    21    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Area GAIN 24 k, 25k more than the 2010's average loss of 1k on this day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.

Temperatures, winds and ocean currents at the periphery, especially the Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay will determine ice gain and loss in these peripheral seas that in turn determine the final outcome of maximum for the year.  Looking at the tables shows how cold and warmth is moving around the Arctic.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on February 10, 2019, 09:53:17 PM
Another month - and this time also another 5-year period - has passed and I provide the actual January extent data in the bigger context.
Jan 2019 had an average extent of 13.56 M km², 0.6 M km² less than all Januarys since 1979. Nevertheless the loss does not follow the linear trend line, but remains 0.3 M km² above it (red line in the graph). It is the third consecutive month with that behaviour, and I guess at least the next two months will show the same deviation.
See attached graph (if you compare it with the Dec 2018 graph you see I had to lengthen the x axis by another five years).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on February 11, 2019, 02:34:48 AM
Stephan - can you show a graph with only the January averages for each year? I wonder if it will show a different trend.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 11, 2019, 05:06:50 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,649,459 km2(February 10, 2019)

- Extent gain 42k, 36k more than the average gain of 6k on this day.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 128 k (1.4%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 93.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 29 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.20 million km2 (320k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.14 million km2, (260k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and -1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic will remain.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 11, 2019, 05:38:15 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 10th, 2019:
     13,649,459 km2, an increase of 41,527 km2.
     2019 is now the 4rd lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Phil42 on February 11, 2019, 09:03:21 AM
We are now approaching the timeframe where extent could hit its yearly maximum any day(when looking at JAXA data going back to '79).

So far, all maximums have happened between 15th February (2015) and 31st March (2010) with no real trend in either direction.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Eco-Author on February 11, 2019, 12:45:57 PM
kinda wondering what that polynomial trend line looks like now... The extreme degree of inaccuracy makes me question the supposed scientists who were predicting a 10-C increase in just four years - about a year and a half ago!
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 11, 2019, 02:35:41 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,502,312 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,502,312    km2      
 100,922    km2   >    2010's average.
 479,269    k   >   2018
-498,577    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    18    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    9    k   gain
Central Seas__   -6    k   loss
Other Seas___    15    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -17    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    10    k   gain
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______    10    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -7    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    12    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -8    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    19    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -5    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Area GAIN 18 k, 19k more than the 2010's average loss of 1k on this day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and -1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.

Temperatures, winds and ocean currents at the periphery, especially the Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay will determine ice gain and loss in these peripheral seas that in turn determine the final outcome of maximum for the year.  Looking at the tables shows how cold and warmth is moving around the Arctic.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on February 11, 2019, 08:02:14 PM
Stephan - can you show a graph with only the January averages for each year? I wonder if it will show a different trend.
Here it is, please note that the slope is only 60% of that of all calendar months:
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on February 11, 2019, 08:26:04 PM
Thank you Stephan. I see a clear trend, for the time being, lower lows and lower highs.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 12, 2019, 04:42:07 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 11th, 2019:
     13,695,200 km2, an increase of 45,741 km2.
     2019 is now the 6th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 12, 2019, 10:39:09 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,695,200 km2(February 11, 2019)

- Extent gain 46k, 42k more than the average gain of 4k on this day.
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 87 k (0.9%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 93.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 28 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.24 million km2 (360k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.20 million km2, (320k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and -1 degrees over the next week or so.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 12, 2019, 02:02:00 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,518,350 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,518,350    km2      
 115,957    km2   >    2010's average.
 543,120    k   >   2018
-518,359    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    16    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    9    k   gain
Central Seas__   -5    k   loss
Other Seas___    11    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -10    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    9    k   gain
Barents ______    9    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -8    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    9    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    16    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Area GAIN 16 k, 15k more than the 2010's average gain of 1k on this day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and -1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.

Temperatures, winds and ocean currents at the periphery, especially the Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay will determine ice gain and loss in these peripheral seas that in turn determine the final outcome of maximum for the year.  Looking at the tables shows how cold and warmth is moving around the Arctic.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 12, 2019, 02:04:49 PM
The Bering and Okhotsk Seas are next door to each other, but like last year are looking somewhat different.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tor Bejnar on February 12, 2019, 06:33:58 PM
Last year we were wondering if the Bering Sea would have a February max (we thought that would be incredible! then it had a March max).  This year I'm wondering if the Bering Sea will have a January max, but am ho-hum about the possibility.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on February 12, 2019, 10:32:29 PM
Last year we were wondering if the Bering Sea would have a February max (we thought that would be incredible! then it had a March max).  This year I'm wondering if the Bering Sea will have a January max, but am ho-hum about the possibility.
It looks again that Bering Sea Ice cover doesn't want to follow "normal" routes as it is declining rapidly in contrast to all the ten-year-averages. It is too early to say it has already had its maximum, but it is really possible...
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 13, 2019, 04:51:17 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 12th, 2019:
     13,755,722 km2, an increase of 60,522 km2.
     2019 is now the 7th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Wherestheice on February 13, 2019, 05:11:12 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 12th, 2019:
     13,755,722 km2, an increase of 60,522 km2.
     2019 is now the 7th lowest on record.

The back and forth fluctuations continue. This has been an interesting freezing season
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 13, 2019, 11:34:58 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,755,722 km2(February 12, 2019)

- Extent gain 61k, 38k more than the average gain of 23k on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 45 k (0.5%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 93.8 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 27 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.28 million km2 (400k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.24 million km2, (360k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and -1 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front to cold.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 13, 2019, 02:02:09 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,531,131 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,531,131    km2      
 117,255    km2   >    2010's average.
 551,247    k   >   2018
-538,003    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    13    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas__    1    k   gain
Other Seas___    6    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -5    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
Greenland____    8    k   gain
Barents ______    5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    12    k   gain
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    12    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -7    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Area GAIN 13 k, 2k more than the 2010's average gain of 11k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and -1 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front to cold.

Temperatures, winds and ocean currents at the periphery, especially the Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay will determine ice gain and loss in these peripheral seas that in turn determine the final outcome of maximum for the year.  Looking at the tables shows how cold and warmth is moving around the Arctic.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 13, 2019, 02:10:36 PM
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and -1 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side tending to warmth and the Atlantic front to cold.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: interstitial on February 14, 2019, 02:48:37 AM
Is that chart accurate? Did the Beufort sea have that much less ice in the 1980s than the following decades?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on February 14, 2019, 04:24:42 AM
Is that chart accurate? Did the Beufort sea have that much less ice in the 1980s than the following decades?
Yes, the chart is accurate, though it does seem counter-intuitive. Note that this is an area chart - extent was at maximum throughout the period.
I would expect the explanation to lie with the Beaufort gyre, causing fractures and leads, though without the actual satellite images this is just a wild guess.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 14, 2019, 04:55:10 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 13th, 2019:
     13,860,508 km2, a century increase of 104,786 km2.  ::)
     2019 is still the 7th lowest on record.
PS: 140K to reach the 14M km2 (and one month of possible increases).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: binntho on February 14, 2019, 05:03:56 AM
Still a century below the last minimax (2016) ... but continuing northerly winds on the Atlantic front make a new one exceedingly unlikely. Oh well.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 14, 2019, 08:45:09 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,860,508 km2(February 13, 2019)

- Extent gain 105k, 64k more than the average gain of 41k on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 15 k (0.2%) greater than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 94.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 26 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.35 million km2 (470k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.32 million km2, (440k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1.5 and -1 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front to cold.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Phil42 on February 14, 2019, 09:39:31 AM
For anyone who is like me and thought this increase is very weird.

I checked some numbers and while a century increase this late is unusual it is not all unprecedented. Since JAXA records began in 1979, there have been a total of 10 century increases in the freezing season after 13th February (ordered by date):

13th February 2019: +104'786 km2 (yesterday)
14th February 2017: +110'137 km2
15th February 2017: +127'281 km2
15th February 2005: +114'256 km2
19th February 2014: +111'171 km2
20th February 2014: +110'795 km2
24th February 2013: +117'014 km2
24th February 2016: +149'990 km2
1st March 2012: +186'143 km2 (biggest increase)
12th March 2014: +115'282 km2 (latest century increase)

Worthy to mention here is that those late century increases are a phenomenon that really only started to occur regularly in the last 10 years.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 14, 2019, 09:47:02 AM
Still a century below the last minimax (2016) ... but continuing northerly winds on the Atlantic front make a new one exceedingly unlikely. Oh well.

The minimum max is 13,878,287 established in 2017, so 2019 is only 17,779 km2 below the minimum max.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: binntho on February 14, 2019, 10:12:29 AM
Still a century below the last minimax (2016) ... but continuing northerly winds on the Atlantic front make a new one exceedingly unlikely. Oh well.

The minimum max is 13,878,287 established in 2017, so 2019 is only 17,779 km2 below the minimum max.

My bad ... but there is still the very slimmest of changes for a new minimax ...
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 14, 2019, 10:22:14 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

Table of Minimum Max (Feb 13th, 2019):
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 14, 2019, 10:34:52 AM
My bad ... but there is still the very slimmest of changes for a new minimax ...

I am still on the 14-14.25 M km2 range.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: be cause on February 14, 2019, 11:27:26 AM
No doubt Gerontocrat will soon confirm that much of today's 100,000+ increase is in Barents . The area will be cold for days to come . I would not be suprised to see another 100k day .. perhaps more than one .. and that Barents will recover to something like the 'old days' and we have a late and unexpectedly high max this year . b.c.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 14, 2019, 03:14:41 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,559,771 km2
         
Total Area      
 12,559,771    km2   
 123,493    km2   >
 548,477    k   >
-536,430    k   <
      
Total gain/loss    29    k
Peripheral Seas    9    k
Central Seas__    9    k
Other Seas___    10    k
      
Peripheral Seas      
Bering _______    5    k
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k
Greenland____    6    k
Barents ______    4    k
      
CAB Seas      
Beaufort_____    3    k
CAA_________   -0    k
East Siberian__   -3    k
Central Arctic_    8    k
      
Kara_________    3    k
Laptev_______   -1    k
Chukchi______    1    k
      
Other Seas      
Okhotsk______    14    k
St Lawrence___   -5    k
Hudson Bay___    1    k
Area GAIN 29 k, 7k more than the 2010's average gain of 22k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1.5 and -1 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin Bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.

The data is the NSIDC 5 day trailing average, so the large daily extent gain will take time to show in the tables. Nevertheless, the data is already showing the effect of the recent change in the location of the temperature differences across the Arctic.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 15, 2019, 05:01:06 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 14th, 2019:
     13,953,863 km2, almost a century increase of 93,355 km2.
     2019 is now the 9th lowest on record.
PS: 46K to reach the 14M km2 (and one month of possible increases).
      No new minimum max on 2019!
      Seems that 2019 is following 2007 & 2012  :o (Hope not!  ;) ) On Feb 14th they are
      around 14M km2.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 15, 2019, 07:48:01 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,953,863 km2(February 14, 2019)

- Extent gain 93k, 53k more than the average gain of 50k on this day.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 58 k (062%) greater than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 94.7 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 25 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.39 million km2 (510k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.36 million km2, (480k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1.5 and 0 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 15, 2019, 03:24:19 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 14 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,612,962 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,612,962    km2      
 153,153    km2   >    2010's average.
 589,560    k   >   2018
-498,027    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    53    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    23    k   gain
Central Seas__    12    k   gain
Other Seas___    18    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    14    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    6    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    5    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    11    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain
Area GAIN 53 k, 24 k more than the 2010's average gain of 29k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1.5 and 0 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 16, 2019, 04:59:21 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 15th, 2019:
     13,945,503 km2, a small drop of -8,360 km2.
     2019 is 9th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 16, 2019, 09:11:29 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,945,503 km2(February 15, 2019)

- Extent loss 8k, 52k less than the average gain of 44k on this day.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 6 k (0.1%) greater than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 95.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 24 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.34 million km2 (460k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.30 million km2, (420k >2017).

Note how the cool conditions on the Atlantic Front and the high gains in the previous 2 days let this writer guess at continuing high gains. And what happens? - extent loss. There are times when one is drawn back to James Lovelock's original concept of earth as GAIA - a sentient being, able to mock us even as she is abused by us. Anthropomorthism?

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +0 and +3 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast will be extreme at times. See next post
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 16, 2019, 09:17:52 AM
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +0 and +3 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast will be extreme at times, as sown in the GFS image for Sunday 17th.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Wherestheice on February 16, 2019, 10:08:00 AM



Note how the cool conditions on the Atlantic Front and the high gains in the previous 2 days let this writer guess at continuing high gains. And what happens? - extent loss. There are times when one is drawn back to James Lovelock's original concept of earth as GAIA - a sentient being, able to mock us even as she is abused by us. Anthropomorthism?


Interesting you note that. Because nature is so fricken hard to predict
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 16, 2019, 02:27:21 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,658,476  km2
         
Total Area         
 12,658,476    km2      
 164,176    km2   >    2010's average.
 610,283    k   >   2018
-461,506    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    46    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    20    k   gain
Central Seas__    13    k   gain
Other Seas___    12    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    11    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______    5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______    6    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    5    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain
Area GAIN 46 k, 12 k more than the 2010's average gain of 34k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +0 and +3 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast will be extreme at times, as shown in the GFS image for Sunday 17th posted above.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 17, 2019, 05:07:37 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 16th, 2019:
     13,919,453 km2, a drop of -26,050 km2.
     2019 is now 8th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 17, 2019, 01:18:49 PM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,945,503 km2(February 15, 2019)

- Extent loss 26k, 54k less than the average gain of 28k on this day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 48 k (0.5%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 95.5 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 23 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.28 million km2 (400k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.26 million km2, (380k >2017).

Note how the cool conditions on the Atlantic Front and the high gains in the previous 2 days let this writer guess at continuing high gains. And what happens? - extent losses. There are times when one is drawn back to James Lovelock's original concept of earth as GAIA - a sentient being, able to mock us even as she is abused by us. Anthropomorthism?

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +2 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast will be extreme at times.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 17, 2019, 06:02:31 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 16 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,704,061  km2
         
Total Area         
 12,704,061    km2      
 167,091    km2   >    2010's average.
 628,517    k   >   2018
-428,691    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    46    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    21    k   gain
Central Seas__    12    k   gain
Other Seas___    13    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    12    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    6    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    4    k   gain
St Lawrence___    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Area GAIN 46 k, 3 k more than the 2010's average gain of 43k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +2 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast will be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 18, 2019, 05:55:58 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 17th, 2019:
     13,926,911 km2, an increase of 7,458 km2.
     2019 is 8th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 18, 2019, 08:37:28 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,926,911 km2(February 17, 2019)

- Extent gain 7k, 6k more than the average gain of 1k on this day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 41 k (0.4%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 95.5 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 22 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.29 million km2 (410k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives the same maximum.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +3 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times. - see next post.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 18, 2019, 08:40:43 AM
As I said in the post above, GFS indicates that  the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay is tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times. The image attached gives an indication of the possibility of the degree of that extreme.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: binntho on February 18, 2019, 08:57:09 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,926,911 km2(February 17, 2019)

- Extent gain 7k, 6k more than the average gain of 1k on this day.


Isn't the average gain closer to 20k on this day, at least judging from the graph?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Sterks on February 18, 2019, 09:08:17 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,926,911 km2(February 17, 2019)

- Extent gain 7k, 6k more than the average gain of 1k on this day.


Isn't the average gain closer to 20k on this day, at least judging from the graph?
That's the only misleading part of Gerontocrat great reports. He's comparing to the still 'wobbly' 10-year average instead of using the filtered trend.
I would say filtering is not fake science, so look at his nice plot, do the math in your head, and ignore that sentence on a daily basis
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on February 18, 2019, 10:00:27 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,926,911 km2(February 17, 2019)

- Extent gain 7k, 6k more than the average gain of 1k on this day.


Isn't the average gain closer to 20k on this day, at least judging from the graph?
That's the only misleading part of Gerontocrat great reports. He's comparing to the still 'wobbly' 10-year average instead of using the filtered trend.
I would say filtering is not fake science, so look at his nice plot, do the math in your head, and ignore that sentence on a daily basis
It's not misleading and is actually useful, because the real 10 year average is what decides if 2019 will go up or down in the rankings table in a given day. But the filtered average is also interesting as it says if the gain/loss is above or below real expectations for the date.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: binntho on February 18, 2019, 10:25:30 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,926,911 km2(February 17, 2019)

- Extent gain 7k, 6k more than the average gain of 1k on this day.


Isn't the average gain closer to 20k on this day, at least judging from the graph?
That's the only misleading part of Gerontocrat great reports. He's comparing to the still 'wobbly' 10-year average instead of using the filtered trend.
I would say filtering is not fake science, so look at his nice plot, do the math in your head, and ignore that sentence on a daily basis
It's not misleading and is actually useful, because the real 10 year average is what decides if 2019 will go up or down in the rankings table in a given day. But the filtered average is also interesting as it says if the gain/loss is above or below real expectations for the date.

I'm still not following - in the "Daily extent gain/loss" graph, the blue line "average daily change" is very close to 20k for this day - it doesn't say what years are covered in the "average" but the sentence "average gain of 1k on this day" does not match up to anything.

The other graph showing sea ice extent has the 2010's average at a significant smidgeon below current extent, or to be exact, some 65k below today's extent as can be read directly from the table.

So I think Gerantocrat has made a mistake, today's gain of 7k is probably some 13k lower than average daily gain for this day (as is made clear from the graph, with the red line ending at least 10k below the blue line.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: binntho on February 18, 2019, 10:28:52 AM
So I think Gerantocrat has made a mistake, today's gain of 7k is probably some 13k lower than average daily gain for this day (as is made clear from the graph, with the red line ending at least 10k below the blue line.

Having just been reading about selective blindness I'm not all that surprised to notice (after several good looks) that there are two blue lines - a smooth "Av. daily change" and a very jumpy "Polynomial (av. daily change)". And the red line does end up at a possible 1k above the second, polynomial, line - whatever  that means.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 18, 2019, 11:14:33 AM
So I think Gerantocrat has made a mistake, today's gain of 7k is probably some 13k lower than average daily gain for this day (as is made clear from the graph, with the red line ending at least 10k below the blue line.

Having just been reading about selective blindness I'm not all that surprised to notice (after several good looks) that there are two blue lines - a smooth "Av. daily change" and a very jumpy "Polynomial (av. daily change)". And the red line does end up at a possible 1k above the second, polynomial, line - whatever  that means.

Me? Make a mistake? I can feel a Trump response coming on. Damn. I do not Tweet.
Instead, I have adjusted the graph layout a bit (not the data). See attached.

Read this very carefully, I will write it only once
The wobbly blue line is for each day the average of the last 10 years. And yes, it is very wobbly or wavy. Hence the x2 polynomial smoothing line, was blue, now dark violet to show the direction of travel.

(We had a discussion last year sometime about whether there was any chance of linking waves of above and below average extent gains and losses to movements of wind, waves, currents, warmth and cold around the Arctic - without any conclusion.)

So on the 17th February, the average of the previous 10 years was a gain of just 885 km2. That is the reality of the JAXA data.
The smoothed line is an artefact, i.e. does not actually exist.
___________________________________________________________
artefact - definition

something observed in a scientific investigation or experiment that is not naturally present but occurs as a result of the preparative or investigative procedure.
"the curvature of the surface is an artefact of the wide-angle view"
____________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: binntho on February 18, 2019, 11:21:11 AM
'Allo 'Allo - zis is now to understand much easier.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 18, 2019, 02:11:49 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 17 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,745,155 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,745,155    km2      
 163,891    km2   >    2010's average.
 635,325    k   >   2018
-404,842    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    41    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    24    k   gain
Central Seas__    9    k   gain
Other Seas___    8    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -3    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    13    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    5    k   gain
St Lawrence___    4    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Area GAIN 41 k, 3 k less than the 2010's average gain of 44k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +3 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast will be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area. Bering starting to lose area again.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 19, 2019, 05:13:51 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 18th, 2019:
     13,962,528 km2, an increase of 35,617 km2.
     2019 is now 9th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 19, 2019, 06:30:10 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,962,528 km2(February 18, 2019)

- Extent gain 36k, 33k more than the average gain of 3k on this day.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 9 k (0.1%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 95.5 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 21 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.33 million km2 (450k >2017's record low maximum).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +3 degrees over the next 5 days, and then up to a perhaps unbelievable +5  or more, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times. See next post
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 19, 2019, 06:33:14 AM
The attached image shows an extreme contrast in the temperature anomalies of the Atlantic front and the Pacific side.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 19, 2019, 02:49:56 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,769,364 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,769,364    km2      
 148,839    km2   >    2010's average.
 629,788    k   >   2018
-404,271    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    24    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    14    k   gain
Central Seas__    12    k   gain
Other Seas___   -2    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -8    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    3    k   gain
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    17    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    7    k   gain
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Area GAIN 24 k, 15 k less than the 2010's average gain of 39k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +3 degrees over the next 5 days, and then up to a perhaps unbelievable +5  or more, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area. Bering and the Chukchi continuing to lose area.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 20, 2019, 05:01:05 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 19th, 2019:
     14,012,202 km2, an increase of 49,674 km2.
     2019 is 9th lowest on record.
     New max for 2019. And now above the 14M km2 mark.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 20, 2019, 09:42:25 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 14,012,202 km2(February 19, 2019)

- Extent gain 50k, 37k more than the average gain of 13k on this day.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 28 k (0.1%) more than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 95.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 20 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.36 million km2 (480k >2017's record low maximum).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +3 degrees over the next 5 days, and then up to a perhaps unbelievable +5  or more, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: echoughton on February 20, 2019, 12:31:38 PM
AND>>>>We're above 14 million. Not a bad year for ASI!!! 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8)
(I realize it could be a ripe frozen cherry)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 20, 2019, 02:28:01 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,789,901  km2
         
Total Area         
 12,789,901    km2      
 138,928    km2   >    2010's average.
 623,766    k   >   2018
-409,362    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    21    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    8    k   gain
Central Seas__    11    k   gain
Other Seas___    2    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -9    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    17    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    5    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
Area GAIN 21 k, 9 k less than the 2010's average gain of 30k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +3 degrees over the next 5 days, and then up to a perhaps unbelievable +5  or more, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area. Bering and the Chukchi continuing to lose area.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Rodius on February 21, 2019, 12:22:31 AM
Is it just my imagination, but it seems like the maximum used to be earlier in the year than it is now..... I am talking decade averages here.

To me, just eyeballing the graph, it looks like the 80s peaked around 3rd March.
90s peaked at about 10th March.
00s peaked about 10th March
10s then goes to 17th March and, maybe at a stretch, end of March.

If this is correct.... does anyone know why the end of the freeze is taking longer each decade?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Feeltheburn on February 21, 2019, 05:22:53 AM
Feb 20:           14,085,455
Increase of            73,253
9th lowest on record
Might soon surpass 2012 to move into 10th place
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 21, 2019, 06:40:22 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 14,085,455 km2(February 20, 2019)

- Extent gain 73k, 69k more than the average gain of 4k on this day.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 97 k (1.0%) more than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 95.7 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 19 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.43 million km2 (550k >2017's record low maximum).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +4 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Altai on February 21, 2019, 11:22:03 AM
Thats because the periphery of the Arctic ocean is not ice-covered anymore and the edge of ice is now in the area where the solar radiation in March is very poor and the ice is still expading till the mid-March. In the 1980-s the edge was much further to the south and was already affected by solar radiation in the beginning of March.




Is it just my imagination, but it seems like the maximum used to be earlier in the year than it is now..... I am talking decade averages here.

To me, just eyeballing the graph, it looks like the 80s peaked around 3rd March.
90s peaked at about 10th March.
00s peaked about 10th March
10s then goes to 17th March and, maybe at a stretch, end of March.

If this is correct.... does anyone know why the end of the freeze is taking longer each decade?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 21, 2019, 03:35:21 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 20 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,823,767  km2
         
Total Area         
 12,823,767    km2      
 148,901    km2   >   2010's average.
 633,134    k   >   2018
-397,912    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    34    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    18    k   gain
Central Seas__    5    k   gain
Other Seas___    10    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -4    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______    20    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    12    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Area GAIN 34 k, 10 k more than the 2010's average gain of 24k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +4 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area. Bering Sea continuing to lose area though at a slower rate.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Klondike Kat on February 21, 2019, 04:29:41 PM
Thats because the periphery of the Arctic ocean is not ice-covered anymore and the edge of ice is now in the area where the solar radiation in March is very poor and the ice is still expading till the mid-March. In the 1980-s the edge was much further to the south and was already affected by solar radiation in the beginning of March.

That makes so much sense.  Thanks.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 22, 2019, 05:03:02 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 21st, 2019:
     14,167,494 km2, an increase of  82,039 km2.
     2019 is now the 12th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 22, 2019, 08:33:38 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 14,167,494 km2(February 21, 2019)

- Extent gain 82k, 70k more than the average gain of 12k on this day.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 167 k (1. 7%) more than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 95.8 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 18 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.50 million km2 (620k >2017's record low maximum).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +2.5 and +5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

I am wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains is from freezing and how much from existing ice being spread out due to winds and waves.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 22, 2019, 02:17:13 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 21 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,862,839 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,862,839    km2      
 173,412    km2   >   2010's average.
 664,218    k   >   2018
-368,476    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    39    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    15    k   gain
Central Seas__    7    k   gain
Other Seas___    17    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______    20    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________    4    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    17    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Area GAIN 39 k, 24 k more than the 2010's average gain of 15k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +2.5 and +5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Neven on February 22, 2019, 05:16:26 PM
Travelling right now, couldn't release this earlier, sorry:

Feb 20:           14,085,455
Increase of            73,253
9th lowest on record
Might soon surpass 2012 to move into 10th place
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Feeltheburn on February 23, 2019, 04:41:26 AM
Travelling right now, couldn't release this earlier, sorry:

Feb 20:           14,085,455
Increase of            73,253
9th lowest on record
Might soon surpass 2012 to move into 10th place

Haven't I proven myself for the past 2 years? Can I please come out of detention?

<You haven't posted all that much. Anyway, I'm back now; N.>
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Feeltheburn on February 23, 2019, 05:06:20 AM
Jaxa:

Feb 22: 14,194,560 km2
Increase of 27,066
12th place

NSIDC:
Feb 21: 14,727,000 km2
Increase of 46,000 km2
12th place

Will NSIDC finally reach 15,000,000 this year? Last time was March 20, 2014.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Feeltheburn on February 23, 2019, 05:18:05 AM
The Perils of Projections.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.43 million km2 (550k >2017's record low maximum).


We are going to need some slowing if my vote of 14.125-14.375 is going to stay in the money!
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 23, 2019, 07:11:52 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 14,194,560 km2(February 22, 2019)

- Extent gain 27k, 12k more than the average gain of 15k on this day.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 179 k (1. 8%) more than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 95.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 17 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.51 million km2 (630k >2017's record low maximum).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +3 and +5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

I am wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains is from freezing and how much from existing ice being spread out due to winds and waves.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Brigantine on February 23, 2019, 08:18:09 AM
Previous maximums [JAXA extent, since 2005] in million square km: [re-ordered]

1. 2017: 13.88
2. 2018: 13.89
3. 2015: 13.94
4. 2016: 13.96
5.= 2006: 14.13
5.= 2011: 14.13
2019 to date: 14.17
7. 2007: 14.21
8. 2005: 14.4
9. 2014: 14.45
10. 2013: 14.52
11. 2009: 14.66
12. 2010: 14.69
13. 2012: 14.71
14. 2008: 14.77
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 23, 2019, 03:13:32 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 22 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,906,290 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,906,290    km2      
 207,217    km2   >   2010's average.
 697,779    k   >   2018
-328,868    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    43    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    7    k   gain
Central Seas__    11    k   gain
Other Seas___    26    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    5    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -4    k   loss
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______    10    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
         
Kara_________    4    k   gain
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    18    k   gain
St Lawrence___    9    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Area GAIN 43 k, 33 k more than the 2010's average gain of 10k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +3 and +5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 23, 2019, 03:43:54 PM

NSIDC:
Feb 21: 14,727,000 km2
Increase of 46,000 km2
12th place

Will NSIDC finally reach 15,000,000 this year? Last time was March 20, 2014.

Feb 22: 14,698,000 km2, drop of 29k.

It could be a close-run thing.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 24, 2019, 04:53:34 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 23rd, 2019:
     14,155,918 km2, a drop of -38,642 km2.
     2019 is now the 10th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 24, 2019, 07:01:47 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 14,155,918 km2(February 23, 2019)

- Extent LOSS 39k, 64k less than the average GAIN of 25k on this day.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 116 k (1.2%) more than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 96.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 16 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.45 million km2 (570k >2017's record low maximum).

It is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +3 and +4 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

I am wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains and losses is from freezing / melting  and how much from existing ice being spread out or pushed together due to winds and waves.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 24, 2019, 02:30:37 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 23 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,931,107 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,931,107    km2      
 222,224    km2   >   2010's average.
 712,668    k   >   2018
-297,344    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    25    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    1    k   gain
Central Seas__   -3    k   loss
Other Seas___    28    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    22    k   gain
St Lawrence___    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Area GAIN 25 k, 15 k more than the 2010's average gain of 10k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +3 and +4 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 25, 2019, 05:46:01 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 24th, 2019:
     14,075,003 km2, a drop of -80,915 km2.   :o
     2019 is now the 9th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 25, 2019, 09:49:57 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 14,075,003 km2(February 24, 2019)

- Extent LOSS 81k, 112k less than the average GAIN of 31k on this day.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 3 k (0.0%) more than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 96.5 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 15 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.34 million km2 (460k >2017's record low maximum).

It is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +3 and +4.5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.

I am wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains and losses is from freezing / melting  and how much from existing ice being spread out or pushed together due to winds and waves.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 25, 2019, 02:25:02 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 24 February 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,923,238 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,923,238    km2      
 202,167    km2   >   2010's average.
 690,253    k   >   2018
-305,004    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -8    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -21    k   loss
Central Seas__   -9    k   loss
Other Seas___    22    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -15    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    17    k   gain
St Lawrence___    5    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Area LOSS 8 k, 20 k less than the 2010's average gain of 12k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +3 and +4.5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, a big change.. Bering and Chukchi seas losing area, as are Greenland, Barents, Kara & Laptev.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 25, 2019, 03:04:42 PM
The Bering and its southern neighbour, the Okhotsk, as last year, are showing a major contrast.

The Bering also shows how variable winter extent is year to year - the environment is marginal for ice formation.
Meanwhile the its southern neighbour, the Okhotsk is just cold. Siberian effect?

The St Lawrence is another sea where the environment is marginal for winter ice formation. The weather patterns in NE Canada over the last 2 years have encouraged ice formation.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 26, 2019, 04:48:43 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 25th, 2019:
     14,018,460 km2, a drop of -56,543 km2.   :o
     2019 is now the 8th lowest on record.


P.S. Max to date: 14,194,560 km2 on Feb 22th.
       Difference of 176,100 km2 versus Feb 25th.
 
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 26, 2019, 06:35:35 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 14,018,460 km2(February 25, 2019)

- Extent LOSS 57k, 69k less than the average GAIN of 12k on this day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 66 k (0.7%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 96.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 14 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.27 million km2 (390k >2017's record low maximum).

It is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +3.5 and +4.5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.

I am still wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains and losses is from freezing / melting  and how much from existing ice being spread out or pushed together due to winds and waves.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 26, 2019, 02:16:31 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 25 February 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,897,993 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,897,993    km2      
 165,943    km2   >   2010's average.
 658,366    k   >   2018
-333,112    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -25    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -31    k   loss
Central Seas__   -15    k   loss
Other Seas___    21    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -16    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain
Greenland____   -6    k   loss
Barents ______   -10    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -10    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    14    k   gain
St Lawrence___    8    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Area LOSS 25 k, 36 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 11k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +3.5 and +4.5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, the big change accelerates.. Bering and Chukchi seas losing area, as are Greenland, Barents, Kara & Laptev.

ps: Daily NSIDC Extent down to 14.587 million KM2, a drop of 95k on the day. That 15 million km2 looks less and less likely.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Downpuppy on February 26, 2019, 02:20:43 PM
Down 176K in 3 days, with average gain left 180k & 5 of the last 10 years having less - Does that not sound like 50/50 that the maximum is already in?
On to melting season!  8)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 26, 2019, 02:23:06 PM
Bering in freefall, while Okhotsk and St Lawrence do "reach for the sky".
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Klondike Kat on February 26, 2019, 03:50:34 PM
Down 176K in 3 days, with average gain left 180k & 5 of the last 10 years having less - Does that not sound like 50/50 that the maximum is already in?
On to melting season!  8)

I would say much less than that.  Almost every year has a sea ice peak in February or early March, only to be followed by a maximum weeks later.  This occurred several times in 2016, with the first peak occurring on Feb. 10, only to finally witness the maximum extent on March 24.  Weather, currents, and clouds combine to shift the ice significantly, resulting in fluctuations in the measurements.  Only once in the past two decades has the maximum occurred in Feb.  So, I give it a 5% chance that the maximum is already in.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 26, 2019, 07:36:51 PM
Only once in the past two decades has the maximum occurred in Feb.  So, I give it a 5% chance that the maximum is already in.

There are 3 years (2015, 2007 & 2016), not only one.  8)
I posted the numbers on the poll.
"Date of max" and "max", sorted by date.
On 2019, the max is to date (Feb 25th).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Sterks on February 26, 2019, 07:44:49 PM
It's going to be challenged cause the weather over the Atlantic side next few days invites to think on extent increasing over Barents and Greenland seas. Otoh Bering wil be completely stagnant. It will be close in any case.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Klondike Kat on February 26, 2019, 10:03:49 PM
Only once in the past two decades has the maximum occurred in Feb.  So, I give it a 5% chance that the maximum is already in.

There are 3 years (2015, 2007 & 2016), not only one.  8)
I posted the numbers on the poll.

According to NSIDC, the maximum extent was reached on Feb. 25 in 2015, Mar. 17 in 2016, and on Mar. 12 in 2006.  I stand by statement.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 27, 2019, 06:32:31 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 26th, 2019:
     13,995,362 km2, a drop of -23,098 km2.
     2019 is now the 7th lowest on record.

(Sorry I am late. Problems with internet...  :( )
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 27, 2019, 06:38:20 AM
Only once in the past two decades has the maximum occurred in Feb.  So, I give it a 5% chance that the maximum is already in.

There are 3 years (2015, 2007 & 2016), not only one.  8)
I posted the numbers on the poll.

According to NSIDC, the maximum extent was reached on Feb. 25 in 2015, Mar. 17 in 2016, and on Mar. 12 in 2006.  I stand by statement.

Ok. I thought that you were talking about ADS JAXA.  ;)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 27, 2019, 08:45:42 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,995,362 km2(February 26, 2019)

- Extent LOSS 23k, 42k less than the average GAIN of 19k on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 108 k (1.1%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 96.8 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 13 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.23 million km2 (350k >2017's record low maximum).

It is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +3.5 and +5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.

I am still wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains and losses is from freezing / melting  and how much from existing ice being spread out or pushed together due to winds and waves. I also wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain. If not, it is likely the current  maximum of 14.195 million km2 will be the final outcome.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 27, 2019, 02:08:34 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 26 February 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,850,238  km2
         
Total Area         
 12,850,238    km2      
 101,201    km2   >   2010's average.
 599,559    k   >   2018
-390,155    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -48    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -31    k   loss
Central Seas__   -29    k   loss
Other Seas___    12    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -21    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    6    k   gain
Greenland____   -3    k   loss
Barents ______   -13    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Chukchi______   -10    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    8    k   gain
St Lawrence___    5    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Area LOSS 48 k, 65 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 17k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +3.5 and +5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, the big change accelerates again.. Bering and Chukchi Beaufort and ESS losing area, as are Greenland, Barents, Kara & Laptev.

ps: Daily NSIDC Extent down to 14.548 million KM2, a drop of 39k on the day. That 15 million km2 looks less and less likely.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 27, 2019, 02:36:19 PM
A GFS temp anomaly image to show the contrast between the West and East Arctic
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 27, 2019, 02:40:08 PM
The Chukchi and the Bering losing area,
The Okhotsk and the St Lawrence still gaining area at a rate of knots.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 28, 2019, 04:49:44 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 27th, 2019:
     13,958,917 km2, a drop of -36,445 km2.
     2019 is the 7th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 28, 2019, 06:48:38 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,958,917 km2(February 27, 2019)

- Extent LOSS 36k, 37k less than the average GAIN of 1k on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 145 k (1.5%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 96.8 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 12 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 6 out of the previous 10 years gives a resulting maximum of 14.19 million km2 (310k >2017's record low maximum), i.e. is the current maximum of 14.195 million km2 on the 22nd February. On the other hand, it is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +2.5 and +5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.

I am still wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains and losses is from freezing / melting  and how much from existing ice being spread out or pushed together due to winds and waves. I also wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain. If not, it is likely the current  maximum of 14.195 million km2 will be the final outcome.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: interstitial on February 28, 2019, 10:26:32 AM
gerontocrat or anyone who knows.
how/where do you get regional extent/area data?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 28, 2019, 11:44:57 AM
gerontocrat or anyone who knows.
how/where do you get regional extent/area data?
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/ in Excel format
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 28, 2019, 03:16:32 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 27 February 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,787,999  km2
         
Total Area         
 12,787,999    km2      
 26,296    km2   >   2010's average.
 546,444    k   >   2018
-467,123    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -62    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -28    k   loss
Central Seas__   -36    k   loss
Other Seas___    2    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -26    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -8    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -16    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -10    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Area LOSS 62 k, 75 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 13k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +2.5 and +5 degrees over the next 10 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, the big change accelerates yet again.. Bering and Chukchi Beaufort and ESS losing area, as are Barents, Kara & Laptev, but not Greenland. In contrast, Okhotsk and St Lawrence gains stalled.

ps: Daily NSIDC Extent up again to 14.584 million KM2, a gain of 36k on the day. That 15 million km2 looks less and less likely, while extent is likely to dither up and down for some time..
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 28, 2019, 03:38:16 PM
Chukchi and Bering likely to lose ice for another 2 or 3 days. After that below freezing in the Chukchi and part of the Bering Sea. So my guess is that sea ice gain may return to the Chukchi, but the Bering sea ice will increase only marginally, if at all.

It is a thought that probably the Bering Sea maximum extent and area for 2019 is late January, some 2 months earlier than usual.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: interstitial on February 28, 2019, 10:34:21 PM
gerontocrat or anyone who knows.
how/where do you get regional extent/area data?
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/ in Excel format
Thanks
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on March 01, 2019, 01:22:44 AM
gerontocrat or anyone who knows.
how/where do you get regional extent/area data?
There is also regional AMSR2 (UH 3.125 km) data available from Wipneus at ArctischePinguin.
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/data/UH_AMSR2_3.125km_Area_Extent-v0.0.txt?attredirects=0&d=1 (https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/data/UH_AMSR2_3.125km_Area_Extent-v0.0.txt?attredirects=0&d=1)

I think this is the "Home Brew" AMSR2 data, Arctic:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data/uh_am2_arc.txt?attredirects=0&d=1 (https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data/uh_am2_arc.txt?attredirects=0&d=1)

Antarctic:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data/uh_am2_ant.txt?attredirects=0&d=1 (https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data/uh_am2_ant.txt?attredirects=0&d=1)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 01, 2019, 06:00:49 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 28th, 2019:
     13,914,006 km2, a drop of -44,911 km2.
     2019 is now 5th lowest on record.
     Six consecutive drops. Total drop from Feb 22nd max: -280,554 km2.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: jdallen on March 01, 2019, 08:33:06 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 28th, 2019:
     13,914,006 km2, a drop of -44,911 km2.
     2019 is now 5th lowest on record.
     Six consecutive drops. Total drop from Feb 22nd max: -280,554 km2.

There have been late season swings greater than 280K, but not by much, and not many.

If we have more declines, that may be it.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Phil42 on March 01, 2019, 08:53:26 AM
Here are the highest extent losses in this particular time period from Feb 22nd - Feb 28th.

For reference, the highest gain in the same time period was +371'783km2 in 2005.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Phil42 on March 01, 2019, 09:04:02 AM
Here are the tables for the extent average in February 2019. Average extent was at 13'807'922 km2, which is:

- 7th lowest in recorded history
- 27'009 km2 above the 2010 average (including 2019)
- 405'331 km2 above the record year 2018

The second image shows the rank of average extent for each month since 2011, whereas 1 means lowest.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 01, 2019, 09:51:34 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,914,006 km2(February 28, 2019)

- Extent LOSS 45k, 75k less than the average GAIN of 30k on this day.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 220 k (2.3%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 97.1 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 11 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 7 out of the previous 10 years gives a resulting maximum of less than 14.19 million km2 (310k >2017's record low maximum), i.e. Extent at 14.195 million km2 on the 22nd February is probably the 2019 maximum. On the other hand, it is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

So, who will be the first to mither Neven about calling the freezing season over and open the 2019 melting thread?

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +4.5 and +5 degrees over the next 5 days or so, then down to +1 after the next 5 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.

I am still wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains and losses is from freezing / melting  and how much from existing ice being spread out or pushed together due to winds and waves. I also wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain. If not, it is likely the current  maximum of 14.195 million km2 will be the final outcome.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 01, 2019, 02:00:19 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 28 February 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,730,648  km2
         
Total Area         
 12,730,648    km2      
-37,723    km2   <   2010's average.
 504,628    k   >   2018
-546,830    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -57    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -30    k   loss
Central Seas__   -26    k   loss
Other Seas___   -2    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -21    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -8    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______   -9    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain
Area LOSS 57 k, whoops 50  64 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 7k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +4.5 and +5 degrees over the next 5 days or so, then down to +1 after the next 5 days, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.. At the end of the forecast period, the Atlantic side looking very cold.

ps: Daily NSIDC Extent down again to 14.560 million KM2, a loss of 24k on the day. That 15 million km2 looks less and less likely, while extent is likely to dither up and down for some time..
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 01, 2019, 02:16:09 PM
Chukchi and Bering likely to lose ice for another 2 or 3 days. After that temperature anomalies less extreme in the Chukchi . So my guess is that sea ice extent may stabilise in the Chukchi. But the Bering sea ice could continue to lose ice, but at a lower rate, simply because area is already at around 125,000 km2, 25% of its 2010's average maximum. We could be looking at the Bering Strait being open in a few days.

It is a thought that almost certainly the Bering Sea maximum extent and area for 2019 is late January, some 2 months earlier than usual. This sea is now basically an open water sea that sometimes has some ice in it.

Meanwhile, perhaps the Okhotsk and St Lawrence ice areas  have (almost) peaked.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: magnamentis on March 02, 2019, 12:16:44 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 28th, 2019:
     13,914,006 km2, a drop of -44,911 km2.
     2019 is now 5th lowest on record.
     Six consecutive drops. Total drop from Feb 22nd max: -280,554 km2.

There have been late season swings greater than 280K, but not by much, and not many.

If we have more declines, that may be it.

while all you're saying is correct, look at UH images and the state of the ice, area is giving in in almost any corner of the arctic (periphery) at the same time, not literally but the impression is that.

considering that and the fact that we shall reach significant insolation levels in many more southern parts of the now frozen arctic and considering the non-homogeneous ice cover with a relative lot of darker water in between, i can't imagine such a steep increase to happen.

on of the later years when it happened was 2012 but in 2012 the ice cover was much more homogeneous and the amount of heat "looming" all around the arctic was significantly lower.

and then, looking at all the temp anomalies all around the place, where should that necessary cold-spell come from within the remaining 5-10 days to achieve such a steep increase of extent ?

i'm open to stand corrected should any of the above be inaccurate or wrong, go ahead, i'm here to learn.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 02, 2019, 05:03:49 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 1st, 2019:
     13,909,051 km2, a drop of only -4,955 km2.
     2019 is now 4th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Cid_Yama on March 02, 2019, 08:47:30 AM
Whoa!  Awful late in the season to be pulling that stuff.

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_n_running_mean_amsr2_regular.png

Posts on the melting thread explain why this year is quite different from last year, and why one shouldn't expect a recovery this year.

 

Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 02, 2019, 09:43:11 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,909,051 km2(March 1, 2019)

Through obstinacy the data below assume the maximum has not yet occurred
- Extent LOSS 5k, 45k less than the average GAIN of 40k on this day.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 266 k (2.7%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 97.5 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 10 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 8 out of the previous 10 years gives a resulting maximum of less than 14.19 million km2 (310k >2017's record low maximum), i.e. Extent at 14.195 million km2 on the 22nd February is probably the 2019 maximum. On the other hand, it is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +5.5 and +3 degrees over the next 5 days or so, then trending down to 0 in days 5 to 10, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.

I am still wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains and losses is from freezing / melting  and how much from existing ice being spread out or pushed together due to winds and waves. I also wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new maximum, given the lateness in the freezing season.

If not, it is likely the current 22 Feb  maximum of 14.195 million km2 will be the final outcome.On that assumption, Arc5 Table attached gives the maxima over the years and a comparison with 2019.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 02, 2019, 03:34:06 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 1 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,688,151  km2
         
Total Area         
 12,688,151    km2      
-88,720    km2   <   2010's average.
 475,955    k   >   2018
-611,736    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -42    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -26    k   loss
Central Seas__   -22    k   loss
Other Seas___    5    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -15    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -13    k   loss
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______    4    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______   -11    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Area LOSS 42 k, 24 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 18 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +5.5 and +3 degrees over the next 5 days or so, then trending down to 0 in days 5 to 10, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times. At the end of the forecast period, the Atlantic side looking very cold.

ps: Daily NSIDC Extent down again to 14.533 million KM2, a loss of 28k on the day. That 15 million km2 looks less and less likely, while extent is likely to dither up and down for some time..
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 03, 2019, 04:51:58 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

Could Neven be right waiting to declare the maximum?
Well, here we go!  ::)

March 2nd, 2019:
     13,973,505 km2, an increase of 64,454 km2.
     2019 is now 7th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 03, 2019, 09:15:56 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,973,505 km2(March 2, 2019)

Through obstinacy the data below assume the maximum has not yet occurred
- Extent GAIN 64k, 56k more than the average GAIN of 8k on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 210 k (2.2%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 97.5 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 10 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 8 out of the previous 10 years gives a resulting maximum of less than 14.19 million km2 (310k >2017's record low maximum), i.e. Extent at 14.195 million km2 on the 22nd February is probably the 2019 maximum. On the other hand, it is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +55 and +2 degrees over the next 5 days or so, then trending down to -2 in days 5 to 10, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.

I still wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new maximum, given the lateness in the freezing season.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 03, 2019, 02:02:40 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 2 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,665,161  km2
         
Total Area         
 12,665,161    km2      
-120,903    km2   <   2010's average.
 458,903    k   >   2018
-668,118    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -23    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -15    k   loss
Central Seas__   -11    k   loss
Other Seas___    3    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -13    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -16    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    11    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______   -5    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    6    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -5    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Area LOSS 23 k, 32 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 9 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +5 and +2 degrees over the next 5 days or so, then trending down to -2 in days 5 to 10, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times. At the end of the forecast period, the Atlantic side looking very cold.

ps: Daily NSIDC Extent up again to 14.556 million KM2, a gain of 23k on the day. Extent is likely to dither up and down for some time..
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: b_lumenkraft on March 03, 2019, 02:06:49 PM
between +55 and +2 degrees

That should be a "+5", right?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 03, 2019, 02:35:06 PM
between +55 and +2 degrees

That should be a "+5", right?
Right. Mind you, if it was Fahrenheit and just looking at that narrow strip heading into the central Arctic from the Central North Alaska coast, +55 would be close.

I need an'oliday.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 04, 2019, 05:08:56 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 3rd, 2019:
     14,014,896 km2, an increase of 41,391 km2.
     2019 is 7th lowest on record.
     Now 2019 again above the 14M km2.
     It needs an increase of 179,665 km2 to reach a new max.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on March 04, 2019, 08:33:26 AM
I just noticed that 2012 was listed on position 15 in that table - and that later in that year its extent was way below of all other years. I think anything is possible on this date...
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 04, 2019, 10:37:36 AM
I just noticed that 2012 was listed on position 15 in that table - and that later in that year its extent was way below of all other years. I think anything is possible on this date...

2012 had an increase of ice at the beginning of March and it didn't seem that it was going to break any record until the first half of June. I highlight 2012 on this graph (green line).Of course, the 2012 trajectory will look worst if the graph doesn't have the following years, specially 2015-2018.

Addendum: 2nd. graph - 2012 taking out the following years.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 04, 2019, 12:21:44 PM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,014,896 km2(March 3, 2019)

Through obstinacy the data below assume the maximum has not yet occurred...
- Extent GAIN 41k, 4k more than the average GAIN of 0k on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 168 k (1.7%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 9765 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 8 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 7 out of the previous 10 years gives a resulting maximum of less than 14.19 million km2 (310k >2017's record low maximum), i.e. Extent at 14.195 million km2 on the 22nd February is probably the 2019 maximum. On the other hand, it is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +5 to +2 degrees over the next 5 days or so, then trending down to -2 by day 10, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.

I still wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new maximum, given the lateness in the freezing season.

Not a day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 04, 2019, 04:16:14 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 3 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,673,367  km2
         
 Total Area         
 12,673,367    km2      
-119,589    km2   <   2010's average.
 487,425    k   >   2018
-690,643    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    8    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    0    k   gain
Central Seas__    5    k   gain
Other Seas___    3    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -9    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -16    k   loss
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______    20    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
         
Kara_________    6    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Area GAIN 8 k, 1 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 7 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +5 to +2 degrees over the next 5 days or so, then trending down to -2 by day 10, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times. During much of the forecast period, the Atlantic side looking very cold.

ps: Daily NSIDC Extent up again to 14.618 million KM2, a gain of 62k on the day, and only 117k less than the current 2019 maximum of 14.735 million km2 on the 23 Feb..
Extent is likely to dither up and down for some time..
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 04, 2019, 04:30:39 PM
Bering and Chukchi losing area but at a slower rate.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 04, 2019, 04:37:05 PM
The Baffin also springs a bit of a surprise in the amount and duration of area loss.

The Barents and Greenland seas showing the effects of cold (+ wind direction?) in the North Atlantic.

The temperature anomaly pattern in the attached image looks set to continue for some time.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 05, 2019, 04:57:24 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 4th, 2019:
     14,030,595 km2, an increase of 15,699 km2.
     2019 is 7th lowest on record.
     It needs an increase of 163,966 km2 to reach a new max.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 05, 2019, 10:56:32 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,030,595 km2(March 4, 2019)

Through (justifiable?) obstinacy the data below assume the maximum has not yet occurred...
- Extent GAIN 16k, 21k more than the average loss of 5k on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 147 k (1.5%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 97.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 7 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 5 out of the previous 10 years gives a resulting maximum of MORE than 14.19 million km2 (310k >2017's record low maximum), i.e. Extent at 14.195 million km2 on the 22nd February is merely possibly the 2019 maximum.It is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +5 to +1 degrees over the next 5 days or so, then trending down to -2 by day 10, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.

I still wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new maximum, given the lateness in the freezing season.

Not a day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 05, 2019, 02:37:29 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 4 March 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,697,611  km2
         
Total Area         
 12,697,611    km2      
-111,438    km2   <   2010's average.
 532,142    k   >   2018
-686,103    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    24    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    4    k   gain
Central Seas__    7    k   gain
Other Seas___    13    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -7    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    18    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
         
Kara_________    11    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______   -5    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    9    k   gain
St Lawrence___    5    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Area GAIN 24 k, 8 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 16 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +5 to +1 degrees over the next 5 days or so, then trending down to -2 by day 10, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times. During much of the forecast period, the Atlantic side looking very cold.

ps: Daily NSIDC Extent down again to 14.611 million KM2, a loss of just 7k on the day, and only 124k less than the current 2019 maximum of 14.735 million km2 on the 23 Feb..

Extent is likely to dither up and down for some time..
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Ktb on March 05, 2019, 05:24:23 PM
I decided that after 3 years of lurking with minimal contributions to the extent and area threads, I should finally add something.

Because of nearly everybody's fascination with the BOE, I have targeted that as my project. I don't think many people have actually visualized just how much ice needs to melt in order for a BOE to occur. If we take the start of the melt season as Feb 23rd, we need an average daily extent loss of -65,645k for the next 201 days.

The attached graph shows the starting extent for the melt season (as hypothetically called by a few on this forum).

In the Average Daily Ice Loss for BOE column, we can see exactly what it sounds like: if daily loss matched that number exactly for the rest of the melt season, we would have a BOE.

In the Are We On Pace? column, I have summed the actual daily ice loss of the current day and all the past days of the melt season vs the sum total of the same number of days required for a BOE. Then, if we are equal to, or less than (darn negative numbers) the average required, we will see a TRUE. If the actual daily ice loss sum total is greater than the average daily for BOE sum total, we will see FALSE as currently seen.

In the Days Remaining column, we have the number of days left until the end of the melt season, on average of course.

In the Actual Daily Ice Loss, we see the actual daily ice loss.

And finally, in the New Required Average column, we see the new average daily requirement for a BOE. From that date on, if we lost the New Required Average, we would have a BOE regardless of previous ice gain/loss. Ergo, the latest reading shows a new required average daily drop of -71.660.

Special thanks to JCG and Gerontocrat for their daily updates. As my chart has no true value regarding projection, I will likely only post weekly or even biweekly to avoid cluttering up this thread. And, if people feel that this is more appropriate for the Meaningless Thread, I can move it there instead.

Hope you all enjoy.


Edit: Updated calculations to actually be correct. Added Required Drop Tomorrow to be on Pace which shows us how far behind we are lagging the necessary drop to match the initial average daily loss. If we lose -558,125k km^2 tomorrow, we will be back on pace for a BOE!

Edit 2: Are we on pace? Nope.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: b_lumenkraft on March 05, 2019, 05:39:22 PM
I think this is a great idea!
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on March 05, 2019, 09:49:46 PM
Ktb,
you will probably end up in a constantly saying "FALSE" column, and the daily need for a BOE will rise and rise every day. But it'll be fun watching the development of your table from time to time.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: uniquorn on March 05, 2019, 09:54:59 PM
@ Ktb While you are enthusiastic why not add volume as well?  :)  hmm, though maybe not on this thread
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on March 05, 2019, 10:01:49 PM
I took the monthly extent value for February and added it into my long-term plot where I calculate the anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average February extent is now 15,13 M km². This Feb 2019 had an average extent of 14,40 M km², which is 0,73 M km² less.
As in January, December and November in Feb 2019 the anomaly is 0,30 M km² above the long-term linear trend, which calculated this February should have been at 14,10 M km². I expect at least the two forthcoming months to lie above this linear trend line. What this melting season will finally bring, is almost impossible to predict.

See attached graph.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Ktb on March 05, 2019, 10:23:25 PM
Ktb,
you will probably end up in a constantly saying "FALSE" column, and the daily need for a BOE will rise and rise every day. But it'll be fun watching the development of your table from time to time.

I agree, and understood this when making the excel document. I just wanted to help show how significant of a melt season would be required to get us to a BOE.

Also, glad you'll enjoy it! Planning on 2-4 updates per month, not trying to overwhelm the thread.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 06, 2019, 05:21:10 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 5th, 2019:
     14,044,276 km2, an increase of 13,681 km2.
     2019 is 7th lowest on record.
     It needs an increase of 150,284 km2 to reach a new max.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on March 06, 2019, 09:01:06 AM
Ktb nice table. Define BOE, 0 or 1Mkm2?
I assume it is JAXA-based?
I would remove the first two constant columns (65k and false) and duplicate the last column for several levels of extent 1M, 2M, 3M. I would skip 0M for now - there is no chance of it occurring and so it is somewhat less informative.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Sterks on March 06, 2019, 09:12:00 AM
I would remove the entire last column as it is already meaningless and will be increasingly so, but for the rest it will be a cool table to watch, and to use. Probably somewhere in June it can be used to 'enlighten' the usual members that claim a BOE is imminent until September almost... So thank you!
Or maybe not and we get under 1 M who knows?
Edit: BTW we all agree BOE = extent < 1mill. Km2 right?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 06, 2019, 11:36:42 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,044,276 km2(March 5, 2019)

Through (justifiable?) obstinacy the data below assume the maximum has not yet occurred...
- Extent GAIN 14k, 11k more than the average gain of 3k on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 137 k (1.4%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 97.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 6 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 5 3 out of the previous 10 years gives a resulting maximum of MORE than 14.19 million km2 . i.e. Extent at 14.195 million km2 on the 22nd February is merely possibly the 2019 maximum. It is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +4 to +0.5 degrees over the next 5 days or so, then trending down to -1.5 by day 10, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.

I still wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new maximum, given the lateness in the freezing season.

Still not a day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: magnamentis on March 06, 2019, 01:12:49 PM
I would remove the entire last column as it is already meaningless and will be increasingly so, but for the rest it will be a cool table to watch, and to use. Probably somewhere in June it can be used to 'enlighten' the usual members that claim a BOE is imminent until September almost... So thank you!
Or maybe not and we get under 1 M who knows?
Edit: BTW we all agree BOE = extent < 1mill. Km2 right?

be assured that the day we drop below 1M km2 no-one will call that a BOE anymore because everyone can look at images and graphs and see a lof if white/ice left.

it still evades me how someone can seriously pretend that 1M km2 is Blue Ocean, it's a totally arbitrary number probably invoked by people with a specific interest/effect in mind.

as long as there is ice other than fast ice and relatively small ice fractions the ocean won't be blue but will in parts be ice covered, just less than before.

for me this kind of reasoning is kind of bending the facts due to interests and impatience to reach a specific condition but has not much to do with serious assessment of ice extent and area.

further, considering that the last million km2 of see ice will be relatively thick ice we shall see for example 900'000km2 of ice at 1.5m average that will make it a still significant ice volume and that again is everything but a blue ocean.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Ktb on March 06, 2019, 01:38:51 PM
Thanks for the feedback everybody! I’ve got some upcoming thoughts, plans, and potential upgrades I will be making.

As to questions: What data is used? JAXA. How is BOE defined? Using the currently understood (albeit arbitrary) value of 1 mil km^2.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: kassy on March 06, 2019, 02:08:47 PM
re #328

If we hit 1M km2 before the end of melt season the final result will of course be a lot lower. There will be much more water so much more wave action and unless the ice is attached to land it might be exported out.

Also there will be a lot of visible BO. Below is the area of some of the arctic seas. Put 1M km2 of ice in there somewhere and notice how much water is left

Baffin Bay          689,000 km2
Barents Sea    1,400,000 km2
Beaufort Sea      178,000 km2
Chukchi Sea       620,000 km2
ESS                   987,000 km2
Greenland Sea 1,205,000 km2
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 06, 2019, 02:27:51 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 March 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,736,478 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,736,478    km2      
-92,337    km2   <   2010's average.
 574,026    k   >   2018
-661,061    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    39    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    15    k   gain
Central Seas__    11    k   gain
Other Seas___    13    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -7    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    4    k   gain
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______    13    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________    12    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______   -5    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    10    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Area GAIN 39 k, 19 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 20 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +4 to +0.5 degrees over the next 5 days or so, then trending down to -1.5 by day 10, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times. During much of the forecast period, the Atlantic side looking very cold.

ps: Daily NSIDC Extent down at 14.612 million KM2, a gain of just 1k on the day, and only 123k less than the current 2019 maximum of 14.735 million km2 on the 23 Feb..

Extent is likely to dither up and down for some time..
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 06, 2019, 02:41:30 PM
Pacific Gateway vs Atlantic Front - difference looks like persisting a few more days.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Gray-Wolf on March 06, 2019, 03:29:57 PM


be assured that the day we drop below 1M km2 no-one will call that a BOE anymore because everyone can look at images and graphs and see a lof if white/ice left.

[/quote]

I think it helps highlight how much has altered over just a decade or so?

I believe the '1 million' was used to account for the 'hard to calculate ice' tucked into bays and crinkly coast lines but we increasingly see total melt out of coastal regions ( inc. N.Greenland which was held as the final stronghold of the remnant ice....until it lifted off the coast and melted!)?

So the million will cause issues if it is distributed around the whole of the central basin? But then we run into '15%' or more and obviously '1 million' in extent/area can actually only represent 15% of 1 million if the ice sits in the right places???

So whilst you might be right you may also be wrong with the '1 million' looking quite pitiful in the ocean esp if it represents only 200,000 sq km in 'real ice' whilst the calcs say it is over a million?

When I look at 80N images of late aug over this decade I can see the ice cover there lower as the years move on .More open water , ever smaller floes, but the numbers do not reflect what the eye sees.

That puts me on the opposite side of things to those who might moan as I'm already moaning the the amount of 'real ice' in the waters north of 80N are already far less than the numbers tell us and this may be a 'preconditioning' essential to see an average weather year go 'ice free'?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Klondike Kat on March 06, 2019, 04:32:27 PM
If you look at the ice images, rather than the numbers, for each minimum, those years with low sea ice extent (or area) show much larger losses on the Bering side.  The minimum sea ice on the Atlantic side has not differed significantly over the past two decades.  The Pacific side minimum occurs at a much lower latitude than the Atlantic, and the annual differences appear to be associated with summer temperatures off Alaska and Siberia.  The stability (?) of the high latitude sea ice leads me to conclude that an ice-free Arctic will occur later than many of the predictions for a mid 21th century date.  However, there are just too many uncertainties in these things to really narrow it down to any specific time frame. 
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: b_lumenkraft on March 06, 2019, 04:41:57 PM
The power of data visualisation,

i can't see how there is Arctic sea ice in 20 years.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on March 06, 2019, 04:46:43 PM
Pacific Gateway vs Atlantic Front - difference looks like persisting a few more days.
The flip side of the coin is that due to their low ice extent the Chukchi and Bering could easily add 200k km2 or more in the next two weeks, as they did last year. This will generate a new max, but requires the cooperation of the weather which so far has been lacking. In two weeks the chance will be gone, so best hurry up.
p.s. I'm betting the Chukchi will regrow but I doubt about the Bering.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 06, 2019, 07:50:36 PM
1M km2 is enough ice to cover 555 million hockey rinks.  ;)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tor Bejnar on March 06, 2019, 08:57:12 PM
Game's on, it sounds like ...
but I wouldn't want to attempt ice skating on that remnant ice, given the recent post about rotten ice (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2205.msg191251.html#msg191251).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 07, 2019, 04:59:27 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 6th, 2019:
     14,066,521 km2, an increase of 22,245 km2.
     2019 is 7th lowest on record.
     It needs an increase of 128,040 km2 to reach a new max.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 07, 2019, 02:23:30 PM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,066,521 km2(March 6, 2019)

Through (justifiable?) obstinacy the data below assume the maximum has not yet occurred...
- Extent now just 129k less than current maximum on 22 Feb,
- Extent GAIN 22k, 3 k more than the average gain of 19k on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 134 k (1.4%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 97.8 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 5 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 5 3 out of the previous 10 years gives a resulting maximum of MORE than 14.195 million km2 . i.e. Extent at 14.195 million km2 on the 22nd February is merely possibly the 2019 maximum. It is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +3 to +0.5 degrees over the next 5 days or so, then trending down to -1 by day 10, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.

I still wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new maximum, given the lateness in the freezing season.

Still not a day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 07, 2019, 06:13:27 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 6 March 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,781,575 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,781,575    km2      
-67,329    km2   <   2010's average.
 612,802    k   >   2018
-624,061    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    45    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    22    k   gain
Central Seas__    17    k   gain
Other Seas___    6    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -3    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    9    k   gain
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______    11    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    10    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    4    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Area GAIN 45 k, 25 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 20 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +3 to +0.5 degrees over the next 5 days or so, then trending down to -1 by day 10, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.During much of the forecast period, the Atlantic side looking very cold.

Note: Area on average continues to increase to maximum for about one week longer than extent.

ps: Daily NSIDC Extent down at 14.610 million KM2, a drop of just 2k on the day, and only 125k less than the current 2019 maximum of 14.735 million km2 on the 23 Feb..

Extent is still likely to dither up and down for some time..
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 07, 2019, 06:37:50 PM
Pacific Gateway vs Atlantic Front - difference looks like persisting a few more days.
Got that a bit wrong.
Bering Area loss slowed right down - but not much ice left tio melt,
Chukchi Area loss stalled.

But Greenland and Barents areas still strongly increasing.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 08, 2019, 04:55:40 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 7th, 2019:
     14,093,484 km2, an increase of 26,963 km2.
     2019 is now 8th lowest on record.
     It needs an increase of 26,964 101,077 km2 to reach a new max.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Paddy on March 08, 2019, 07:26:43 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 7th, 2019:
     14,093,484 km2, an increase of 26,963 km2.
     2019 is now 8th lowest on record.
     It needs an increase of 26,964 km2 to reach a new max.

Hang on - the max so far is 14,194,560. Surely it needs 101,100 k or so, not 27k?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 08, 2019, 07:38:44 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 7th, 2019:
     14,093,484 km2, an increase of 26,963 km2.
     2019 is now 8th lowest on record.
     It needs an increase of 26,964 km2 to reach a new max.

Hang on - the max so far is 14,194,560. Surely it needs 101,500 k or so, npt 27k?
101k is my calculation too.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 08, 2019, 07:44:53 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,093,484 km2(March 7, 2019)

Through (justifiable?) obstinacy the data below assume the maximum has not yet occurred...
- Extent now just 101k less than current maximum on 22 Feb,
- Extent GAIN 27k, 17 k more than the average gain of 10k on this day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 117 k (1.2%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 97.9 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 5 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 3 out of the previous 10 years gives a resulting maximum of MORE than 14.195 million km2 . i.e. Extent at 14.195 million km2 on the 22nd February is merely possibly the 2019 maximum. It is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +3 to +0 degrees over the next 5 days or so, then trending down to -1 by day 10, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times but gradually reducing.

I still wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new maximum, given the lateness in the freezing season.

Still not a day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on March 08, 2019, 12:14:48 PM
A strange behavior of Okhotsk data, which I don't recall seeing in the past. JAXA and UH get a very different number, with the gap growing.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 08, 2019, 12:38:28 PM
A strange behavior of Okhotsk data, which I don't recall seeing in the past. JAXA and UH get a very different number, with the gap growing.

NSIDC extent 6 March 1.285 million km2.
Also looked at area to extent ratio compared with last year. No inconsistencies.

So I plump for the JAXA data.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 08, 2019, 03:48:21 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 7 March 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,815,742 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,815,742    km2      
-55,002    km2   <   2010's average.
 622,047    k   >   2018
-596,281    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    34    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    13    k   gain
Central Seas__    18    k   gain
Other Seas___    2    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    9    k   gain
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
         
Kara_________    4    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Area GAIN 34 k, 12 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 22 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +3 to +0 degrees over the next 5 days or so, then trending down to -1 by day 10, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times but gradually reducing. During much of the forecast period, the Atlantic side looking very cold.

ps: Daily NSIDC Extent up by 73k to 14.683 million KM2, and now only 52 k less than the current 2019 maximum of 14.735 million km2 on the 23 Feb..

Extent is still likely to dither up and down for some time..
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 08, 2019, 04:07:17 PM
Ice extent in two seas, not really part of the Arctic ocean, has maxed out at greater than 1980's average extent.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on March 08, 2019, 06:18:27 PM

The eastern seaboard of both Asia and North America have been particularly strong ice growth this season. The peripheral seas have increased ice while the Bering and Barents are still below long term averages (though the Barents sea is catching up).

Perhaps its due to increased incursions of air from the Pacific and Atlantic disrupting the polar vortex and pushing cold air South and East over the continents; WACCy? It's hard to draw any conclusions from one season. In my naive understanding of fluid dynamics, its almost as if the mixing has been intensified, that there is more energy pushing the cold and warm air masses around.

Trading transitory ice in the south for thinner ice with lower extent further north will do little for preserving the summer ice over the Arctic. It might be, however,  that increased ice in the south will reduce the isolation for the planet on a year to year basis, and provide a negative feedback.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 09, 2019, 05:19:29 AM
Hang on - the max so far is 14,194,560. Surely it needs 101,100 k or so, not 27k?
Sorry, my mistake.  :P

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 8th, 2019:
     14,117,749 km2, an increase of 24,265 km2.
     2019 is now 9th lowest on record.
     It needs an increase of 76,812 km2 to reach a new max.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 09, 2019, 09:36:10 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,117,749 km2(March 8, 2019)

Through (justifiable?) obstinacy the data below assume the maximum has not yet occurred...
- Extent now just 77k less than current maximum on 22 Feb,
- Extent GAIN 24k, 44 k more than the average LOSS of 20k on this day.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 73 k (0.7%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 97.7 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 3 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 3 out of the previous 10 years still gives a resulting maximum of MORE than 14.195 million km2 . i.e. Extent at 14.195 million km2 on the 22nd February is merely possibly the 2019 maximum. It is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +2.5 to +0 degrees over the next 3 days or so, then in the range  -1 to +1 to day 10, with the Pacific side  and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.

I still wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new maximum, given the lateness in the freezing season.

Still not a day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 09, 2019, 02:36:11 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 March 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,835,175 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,835,175    km2      
-49,662    km2   <   2010's average.
 585,350    k   >   2018
-575,385    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    19    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    5    k   gain
Central Seas__    15    k   gain
Other Seas___   -1    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    6    k   gain
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Area GAIN 19 k, 5 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 14 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +2.5 to +0 degrees over the next 3 days or so, then in the range  -1 to +1 to day 10, with the Pacific side  and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.

I still wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new maximum, given the lateness in the freezing season.
_____________________________________________________________
ps: Daily NSIDC Extent up by 19k to 14.703 million KM2, and now only 32 k less than the current 2019 maximum of 14.735 million km2 on the 23 Feb..

Extent is still likely to dither up and down for some time..
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 10, 2019, 05:04:32 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 9th, 2019:
     14,150,474 km2, an increase of 32,725 km2.
     2019 is now 8th lowest on record.
     It needs an increase of 44,087 km2 to reach a new max.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 10, 2019, 01:12:27 PM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,150,474 km2(March 9, 2019)

Through (justifiable?) obstinacy the data below assume the maximum has not yet occurred...
- Extent now just 44k less than current maximum on 22 Feb,
- Extent GAIN 33k, 69 k more than the average LOSS of 36k on this day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 4 k (0.0%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 98 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 2 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 3  5 out of the previous 10 years still gives a resulting maximum of MORE than 14.195 million km2 . i.e. Extent at 14.195 million km2 on the 22nd February is merely possibly the 2019 maximum. It is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +2.5 to +0 degrees over the next 3 days or so, then in the range  -1 to +1 to day 10, with the Pacific side  and Baffin bay tending to some warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.

I am obviously more confident the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new JAXA maximum extent, given lack of matching extreme warmth on the Pacific side.

Still not a day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?
[/quote]
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 10, 2019, 04:30:02 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 9 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,854,701 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,854,701    km2      
-34,784    km2   <   2010's average.
 527,506    k   >   2018
-554,194    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    20    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    5    k   gain
Central Seas__    22    k   gain
Other Seas___   -8    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    5    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______    7    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Area GAIN 20 k, 15 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 5 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +2.5 to +0 degrees over the next 3 days or so, then in the range  -1 to +1 to day 10, with the Pacific side  and Baffin bay tending to some warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.


I no longer have to wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new NSIDC maximum extent. See below.
_____________________________________________________________
ps: Daily NSIDC Extent up by 38k to 14.740 million KM2, 5k greater than what was the current 2019 maximum of 14.735 million km2 on the 23 Feb..

Extent is still likely to dither up and down for some time..
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 11, 2019, 05:53:02 AM
I am not able to access the ADS NIPR page. It sends me to twitter, but there is no message on twitter explaining what is happening.  :(
Maybe someone of you will access the data...
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on March 11, 2019, 06:57:40 AM
I just experienced the same   :(
Hopefully JAXA data will be available soon...
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 11, 2019, 09:26:25 AM
I am not able to access the ADS NIPR page.

Me neither  :'(

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg191699.html#new
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Neven on March 11, 2019, 09:56:58 AM
And as usual, just when things get really exciting...  :'(
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: bbr2314 on March 11, 2019, 10:53:45 AM
I think daylight savings ruins all the charts. CCIN has gone blank as well. Who needs Y2K when the monkeys change the clocks twice a year anyways for no apparent reason.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 11, 2019, 12:24:17 PM
No crow pie consumption for "Snow White" just yet:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg191710.html#msg191710
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 11, 2019, 01:56:50 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,885,159 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,885,159    km2      
-6,909    km2   <   2010's average.
 487,268    k   >   2018
-524,865    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    30    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    16    k   gain
Central Seas__    19    k   gain
Other Seas___   -5    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    8    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    8    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______    8    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Area GAIN 30 k, 27 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 3 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +2.5 to +0 degrees over the next 3 days or so, then in the range  -1 to +1 to day 10, with the Pacific side  and Baffin bay tending to some warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.

I no longer have to wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new NSIDC maximum extent. See below.
_____________________________________________________________
ps: Daily NSIDC Extent
             09/03/19   14.743
            10/03/19   14.742
.
.

Extent is still likely to dither up and down for some time..
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 11, 2019, 02:08:39 PM
I think daylight savings ruins all the charts. CCIN has gone blank as well. Who needs Y2K when the monkeys change the clocks twice a year anyways for no apparent reason.

Not in Japan
Daylight Saving Time (DST) Not Observed in Year 2019. Tokyo currently observes Japan Standard Time (JST) all year. The previous DST change in Tokyo was on September 8, 1951.
Daylight Saving Time Changes 2019 in Tokyo, Japan
https://www.timeanddate.com/time/change/japan/tokyo

ps : https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current is up and running Ok

pps:Daylight saving time 2019 in United Kingdom will begin at 01:00 on
Sunday, 31 March
and ends at 02:00 on
Sunday, 27 October
All times are in United Kingdom Time.

ppps: Daylight saving time 2019 in Canada & United States of America began at 02:00 on
Sunday, 10 March
and ends at 02:00 on
Sunday, 3 November
All times are in Eastern Time.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 12, 2019, 04:56:44 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

I was looking  to congratulate Neven today, for holding on the call of the max for the 2018-19 freezing season.
But on JAXA data, we will have to wait to be sure.  :(
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: magnamentis on March 12, 2019, 12:24:34 PM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

I was looking  to congratulate Neven today, for holding on the call of the max for the 2018-19 freezing season.
But on JAXA data, we will have to wait to be sure.  :(

yeah, winds blew a lot of ice through bering and there was no significant reduction elsewhere, hence we can assume that a new max has been reached yesterday or will be reached today.

curious to see the facts of course

however i consider my theory expressed in the "guess the max" thread as failed (proven wrong)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 12, 2019, 02:02:53 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,936,787 km2
         
Total Area         
 Total Area         
 12,936,787    km2      
 44,942    km2   >   2010's average.
 477,206    k   >   2018
-466,718    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    52    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    36    k   gain
Central Seas__    12    k   gain
Other Seas___    4    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    11    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______    16    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
Area GAIN 52 k, 52 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 0 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +1 to +0 degrees over the next 24 hours days or so, then in the range  -1 to +1 to day 10, with no real direction of travel except mostly a bit chilly.

I no longer have to wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new NSIDC maximum . All measures, area , extent, daily, 5 day averages, are at new maxima. Difficult to see JAXA data not on a similar path.

Extent is still likely to dither up and down for some time , and looking more like up than down...
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 13, 2019, 02:01:50 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,992,156 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,992,156    km2      
 99,538    km2   >   2010's average.
 478,661    k   >   2018
-396,654    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    55    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    44    k   gain
Central Seas__    9    k   gain
Other Seas___    3    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    14    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    3    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    24    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________    5    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    4    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Area GAIN 55 k, 54 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 1 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will vary from +2.5 to -1 degrees over the next 10 days, with no real direction of travel except mostly a bit chilly, especially on the Atlantic Front.

All measures, area , extent, daily & 5 day averages, are at new maxima. It is difficult to impossible to assume JAXA data is not on a similar path. Extent is still likely to dither up and down for some days, and looking more like up than down...
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: arctic-watcher on March 13, 2019, 04:49:42 PM
Is JAXA extent data still unavailable? 
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 13, 2019, 07:24:02 PM
Is JAXA extent data still unavailable?
Yes.
Last tweet from NIPR ......
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: zufall on March 14, 2019, 10:09:25 AM
JAXA is available again! Extent at 14.22M on March 13.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Neven on March 14, 2019, 10:36:43 AM
Then crow it is. But I'll also have a piece of that pie, Jim (if you'll share it).  :)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 14, 2019, 11:57:50 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,150,474 km2(March 9, 2019)

Through (justifiable?) obstinacy the data below assume the maximum has not yet occurred...
- Extent now just 46k less than current maximum on 12 March,
- Extent loss 46k, 51 k more than the average gain of 5k on this day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 25 k (0.3%) more than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) it is 2 days after the maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 3  5 4  out of the previous 10 years still gives a resulting maximum of MORE than 14.271 million km2 . i.e. Extent at 14.271 million km2 on the 12th March is merely possibly(though more likely)  the 2019 maximum. It is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually from around -0.5 degrees to +3 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side.

Still not a day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?

Not all of us are eating crow pie, he said smugly.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 14, 2019, 12:05:17 PM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

New max on March 12th: 14,271,121 km2.
Congrats Neven! You were right holding up the max call!  ;)
 
March 13th, 2019:
     14,224,663 km2, a drop of -46,458 km2.
     2019 is 8th lowest on record.

Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 14, 2019, 03:38:01 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  13,042,392 km2
         
Total Area         
 13,042,392    km2      
 141,851    km2   >   2010's average.
 471,854    k   >   2018
-331,612    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    50    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    48    k   gain
Central Seas__    5    k   gain
Other Seas___   -2    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    19    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    3    k   gain
Greenland____   -0    k   loss
Barents ______    26    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________    4    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Area GAIN 50 k, 42 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 8 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually from around -0.5 degrees to +3 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side. 

The data suggests that after 2 or 3 days further area gain, there is a genuine prospect of the melting season getting underway.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Brigantine on March 14, 2019, 08:57:24 PM
Previous maxima [JAXA extent, since 2005] in million square km: [re-ordered]
2019 is now the median

1. 2017: 13.88
2. 2018: 13.89
3. 2015: 13.94
4. 2016: 13.96
5.= 2006: 14.13
5.= 2011: 14.13
7. 2007: 14.21
8. 2019 to date: 14.27
mean: 14.31
9. 2005: 14.4
10. 2014: 14.45
11. 2013: 14.52
12. 2009: 14.66
13. 2010: 14.69
14. 2012: 14.71
15. 2008: 14.77

High: (https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-extent-regional.png?attredirects=0) Barents, St. Lawrence, Okhotsk, CAB
Low: Bering, Baffin (specifically the Subpolar Gyre, per CIS anomaly charts)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Feeltheburn on March 15, 2019, 12:19:23 AM
NSIDC max for 2019 so far: 14,883,000 on March 11
JAXA max for 2019 so far: 14,271,121 on March 12
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 15, 2019, 04:48:08 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 14th, 2019:
     14,184,906 km2, a drop of -39,757 km2.
     2019 is 8th lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 15, 2019, 09:09:00 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,184,906 km2(March 14, 2019)

- Extent now 86k less than current maximum of 12 March,
- Extent loss 40k, 49 k more than the average gain of 9k on this day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- On average (last 10 years) it is 3 days after the maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 3  5 4  3 out of the previous 10 years still gives a resulting maximum of MORE than 14.271 million km2 . i.e. Extent at 14.271 million km2 on the 12th March is likely the 2019 maximum.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually from around -0.5 degrees to +1.5 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side.

Still not a day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 15, 2019, 02:05:11 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 14 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)   13,090,986 km2
         
Total Area         
 13,090,986    km2      
 170,560    km2   >   2010's average.
 469,005    k   >   2018
-266,814    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    49    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    52    k   gain
Central Seas__    0    k   gain
Other Seas___   -3    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    17    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    7    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    25    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Area GAIN 49 k, 29 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 20 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually change from around -0.5 degrees to +1.5 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side. 

The data suggests that after 2 or 3 days further area gain, there is a genuine prospect of the melting season getting underway.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 16, 2019, 04:59:23 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 15th, 2019:
     14,148,530 km2, a drop of -36,376 km2.
     2019 is 8th lowest on record.

P.S. 2012 is the 19th. lowest and is 518K km2 above 2019...
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 16, 2019, 06:35:27 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,148,530 km2(March 15, 2019)

- Extent now 123k less than current maximum of 12 March,
- Extent loss 36k, 61 k more than the average gain of 25k on this day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- On average (last 10 years) it is 4 days after the maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 3  5 4 3 only 1 out of the previous 10 years still gives a resulting maximum of MORE than 14.271 million km2 . i.e. Extent at 14.271 million km2 on the 12th March is very much probably the 2019 maximum.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually rise from around -0.5 degrees to +2.5 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side.

Is this the day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: psymmo7 on March 16, 2019, 06:59:03 AM
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually from around -0.5 degrees to +2.5 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side.

There is a word missing: "rise" after "will gradually"
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 16, 2019, 09:05:57 AM
Oh, now it should drop like a stone for me to be averagedly correct, I guess it'll be pie for me too. Last seasons apple jam and some dough to the oven or something like that.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 16, 2019, 01:22:35 PM
Is this the day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?

Obviously I'm biased. Equally obviously the answer is yes!

TMMMV (The management's mileage may vary)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 16, 2019, 02:08:02 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  13,123,348 km2
         
Total Area         
 13,123,348    km2      
 184,917    km2   >   2010's average.
 440,414    k   >   2018
-220,376    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    32    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    40    k   gain
Central Seas__   -2    k   loss
Other Seas___   -6    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    18    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    10    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Area GAIN 32 k, 14 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 18 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually change from around -0.5 degrees to +2.5 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side. 

The data suggests that after 2 or so days further area gain, there is a genuine prospect of the melting season getting underway.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 17, 2019, 04:49:38 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 16th, 2019:
     14,093,381 km2, a drop of -55,149 km2.
     2019 is now 7th lowest on record.
     (2012 also highlighted)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 17, 2019, 11:39:39 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,093,381 km2(March 16, 2019)

- Extent now 178k less than current maximum of 12 March,
- Extent loss 55k, 66 k more than the average gain of 11k on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- On average (last 10 years) it is 5 days after the maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 3  5 4 3 1  zero out of the previous 10 years still gives a resulting maximum of MORE than 14.271 million km2 .

i.e. Extent at 14.271 million km2 on the 12th March is surely the 2019 maximum.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually rise from around -0.5 degrees to +2.5 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side.

Surely this is the day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?
[/quote]
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: kassy on March 17, 2019, 04:20:09 PM
Juan & Ger thanks for reporting on this winter season.

And bonuspoints for zilching that huge +/- error....those things ´are doing me ´ead in´.

 
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Phil. on March 17, 2019, 04:22:13 PM
Extent loss 55k, 66 k more than the average gain of 11k on this day.

I know what you mean but it seems a rather strange way to say it?
Perhaps Extent loss 55k, 66 k less than the average gain of 11k on this day, just a thought, thanks for your work in posting this data.  :)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 17, 2019, 08:31:02 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 16 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  13,113,396 km2
         
Total Area         
 13,113,396    km2      
 162,395    km2   >   2010's average.
 371,029    k   >   2018
-220,565    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -10    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    15    k   gain
Central Seas__    1    k   gain
Other Seas___   -26    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    15    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -0    k   loss
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -11    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss
Area LOSS 10 k, 23 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 13 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually change from around -0.5 degrees to +3 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side. 

A surprising swift switch from area gain to area loss, entirely due to losses in the Okhotsk, St Lawrence and Hudson seas. From today posting will assume the melting season is getting underway.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on March 17, 2019, 08:54:28 PM
I think it is time to thank gerontocat and Juan for presenting up-to-date tables, statistics and information which were almost delivered daily (on some days Juan would have posted the data but he couldn't due to a JAXA timeout).
You two have contributed much valuable information. Please keep up your good work :-)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on March 17, 2019, 08:58:30 PM
I normally push the Like button as silent thanks, but I'll join the public thanking ceremony. JCG's and Ger's area/extent posts are the ones I first read whenever I get the chance.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: miki on March 17, 2019, 09:49:49 PM
I normally push the Like button as silent thanks, but I'll join the public thanking ceremony. JCG's and Ger's area/extent posts are the ones I first read whenever I get the chance.

Same here. Thanks, guys. So much appreciated.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Neven on March 17, 2019, 10:44:15 PM
JAXA SIE total freeze for the 2018/2019 winter was 9,813,869 km2:
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 18, 2019, 04:45:54 AM
Juan & Ger thanks for reporting on this winter season.
I'll join the public thanking ceremony. JCG's and Ger's area/extent posts are the ones I first read whenever I get the chance.
Thanks everyone! It really felt like a public thanking ceremony!   ;)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 17th, 2019:
     14,017,283 km2, a drop of -76,098 km2.
     2019 is 7th lowest on record.
     (2012 also highlighted)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Rod on March 18, 2019, 04:52:31 AM
I'm late to the ceremony, but thank you Juan and Gerontocrat!  I read your posts first thing every morning when I wake up.  Thank you for the work you do in providing the info!
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 18, 2019, 05:03:51 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,017,283 km2(March 17, 2019

- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 76k, 61 k more than the average loss of 15k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 254k, 149 k (142%) greater than average of 105k,
- On average 1.1% of the melting season done, with 180 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.24 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will vary from -0 degrees to +2.5 over the next 10 days.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 18, 2019, 02:04:10 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 17 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  13,081,068 km2
         
Total Area         
 13,081,068    km2      
 124,443    km2   >   2010's average.
 299,543    k   >   2018
-249,598    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -32    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -1    k   loss
Central Seas__   -5    k   loss
Other Seas___   -26    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    14    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -11    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -11    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss
Area LOSS 32 k, 38 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 6 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will vary from -0 degrees to +2.5 over the next 10 days.

A surprising swift switch from area gain to area loss, mostly due to losses in the Okhotsk, St Lawrence and Hudson seas.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Ktb on March 19, 2019, 01:21:44 AM
My excel document has been retrofitted and is currently up to date.

JAXA max extent on March 12th, with an extent on 14,271,121 km^2. This requires a daily extent loss of -72,520 km^2 for 183 straight days (on average) -71,736 km^2 for 185 straight days for a blue ocean event to occur.

So far, we have 1 day of above necessary extent loss (in green). However, we are still not on pace (in red).

As of March 17th, we now require daily drops of -73,131 km^2 for the next 178 days. -72,318 km^2 for the next 180 days.


Of note, I have decided to limit these posts to twice per month, on the first and last days respectively. I'll figure it out. Still working on things.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 19, 2019, 01:50:44 AM
JAXA max extent on March 12th, with an extent on 14,271,121 km^2. This requires a daily extent loss of -72,520 km^2 for 183 straight days (on average) for a blue ocean event to occur.
I like your comment, but the truth, I discard a blue ocean event (BOE) on the near future.

I think that we are on a new stage, in which it will be bad enough if on the following 12 years (2030):
   a) We have 3 years like 2012 or a little worst.
   b) We have an increase in the annual average sea level rise.
   c) We have an increase in methane emissions, because of permafrost melting.

I think that we have a big probability of seeing these three events on the following 12 years, no matter what we do.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: interstitial on March 19, 2019, 02:40:10 AM
Thanks for your BOE spreadsheet KTB. I have two comments. 
Would First and middle of the month break it up better than first and last day of the month?
Does the daily melt requirement too turn green change for the older days as they get further behind or do they have the same threshold value as when they are initially calculated? Does that make sense? I can't always tell when I am clear or not.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 19, 2019, 04:52:24 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 18th, 2019:
     14,005,938 km2, a drop of -11,345 km2.
     2019 is 7th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 19, 2019, 07:25:43 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,005,938 km2(March 18, 2019)

- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 11k, 2 k more than the average loss of 9k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 265k, 151 k (133%) greater than average of 114k,
- On average 1.2% of the melting season done, with 179 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.24 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will increase from +1.5 degrees to +4.5 over the next week or so.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 19, 2019, 01:48:06 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  13,034,643 km2
         
Total Area         
 13,034,643    km2      
 85,179    km2   >   2010's average.
 253,830    k   >   2018
-299,003    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -46    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -20    k   loss
Central Seas__   -8    k   loss
Other Seas___   -19    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    11    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -13    k   loss
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -17    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -15    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Area LOSS 46 k, 39 k more than the 2010's average loss of 7 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will increase from +1.5 degrees to +4.5 over the next week or so.

Increased warmth in the Arctic may maintain increased area loss.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 20, 2019, 05:01:51 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 19th, 2019:
     13,996,972 km2, a drop of -8,966 km2.
     2019 is now 9th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 20, 2019, 06:14:42 PM
Sorry chaps, late on parade.
Hospital check-up. No new bits have fallen off the corpus.

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,996,972 km2(March 19, 2019)

- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 9k, 13 k less than the average loss of 22k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 274k, 139 k (102%) greater than average of 136k,
- On average 1.4% of the melting season done, with 178 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.25 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +1.5 degrees to a wopping +5.8 over the next week or so. Something's gotta give way.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 20, 2019, 06:40:59 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,979,520 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,979,520    km2      
 46,801    km2   >   2010's average.
 232,963    k   >   2018
-358,377    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -55    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -28    k   loss
Central Seas__   -11    k   loss
Other Seas___   -17    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    12    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -14    k   loss
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______   -21    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -13    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Area LOSS 55 k, 38 k more than the 2010's average loss of 17 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +1.5 degrees to a wopping +5.8 over the next week or so. Something's gotta give way. Increased warmth in the Arctic may accelerate area loss.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 20, 2019, 07:18:59 PM
When the St Lawrence melts, it really does melt.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 20, 2019, 08:33:41 PM
Of note is that despite recent persistent area gains, both the Bering and the Chukchi seas areas are still well below 2018, itself a year of extremely low ice area in those seas.

Maybe next week area will be in reverse.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 21, 2019, 04:51:47 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 20th, 2019:
     14,017,103 km2, an increase of 20,131 km2.
     2019 is 9th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 21, 2019, 08:07:54 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,017,103 km2(March 20, 2019)

- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent gain on this day 20k, 44 k less than the average loss of 24k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 254k, 93 k (54%) greater than average of 161k,
- On average 1.6% of the melting season done, with 177 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.3 million km2, 6th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +1.5 degrees to a wopping +6.6 over the next week or so. Something's gotta give way.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 21, 2019, 05:58:17 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 20 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,933,525 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,933,525    km2      
 17,975    km2   >   2010's average.
 240,618    k   >   2018
-398,730    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -46    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -27    k   loss
Central Seas__   -8    k   loss
Other Seas___   -11    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    11    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -13    k   loss
Greenland____   -9    k   loss
Barents ______   -16    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    6    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -15    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Area LOSS 46 k, 29 k more than the 2010's average loss of 17 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +1.5 degrees to a wopping +6.5 or more over the next week or so. Something's gotta give way. Increased warmth in the Arctic may accelerate area loss.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 22, 2019, 05:04:34 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 21st, 2019:
     14,056,522 km2, an increase of 39,419 km2.
     2019 is 9th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 22, 2019, 09:36:17 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,056,522 km2(March 21, 2019)

- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent gain on this day 39k, a variation of 54 k from the average loss of 15k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 215k, 39 k (22%) greater than average of 176k,
- On average 1.8% of the melting season done, with 176 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.35 million km2, 6th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +1.5 degrees to a  +6.5 over the next week or so. Something's gotta give way - but when and where ?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 22, 2019, 01:36:35 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 21 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,897,794 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,897,794    km2      
-3,139    km2   <   2010's average.
 258,112    k   >   2018
-426,365    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -36    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -23    k   loss
Central Seas__   -13    k   loss
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    9    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
Greenland____   -8    k   loss
Barents ______   -18    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    8    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -8    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Area LOSS 36 k, 22 k more than the 2010's average loss of 14 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +1.5 degrees to a  +6.5 over the next week or so.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: etienne on March 22, 2019, 09:39:13 PM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 21st, 2019:
     14,056,522 km2, an increase of 39,419 km2.
     2019 is 9th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)

Just for fun, if you take today's data, the first in the row has a difference of -515,680. Now if you look at who has a difference of around +515,680 you come to the 16th position (+517,656).

If you look further and check which years are in these 16 positions, you get :
2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013 and 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 and 1996.
2012 is not in the list.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 23, 2019, 04:48:51 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 22st, 2019:
     14,001,236 km2, a drop of -55,286 km2.
     2019 is 9th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 23, 2019, 05:01:17 AM
Just for fun, if you take today's data, the first in the row has a difference of -515,680. Now if you look at who has a difference of around +515,680 you come to the 16th position (+517,656).

If you look further and check which years are in these 16 positions, you get :
2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013 and 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 and 1996.
2012 is not in the list.
Yes, it is incredible the high values that 2012 had at this time of the year and the drop that it had later on.

In fact, on April 19th it had 13.99M km2 (2019 can have less tomorrow) and it drop to 3.18M km2 on Sept 15th, an average daily drop of 72.55K km2.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 23, 2019, 06:34:22 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,001,236 km2(March 22, 2019)

- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 55k, a variation of 45 k from the average loss of 10k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 270k, 84 k (45%) greater than average of 186k,
- On average 1.9% of the melting season done, with 175 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.31 million km2, 6th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will increase from +1.5 degrees to +6 by next Tuesday, and then and then range between +6 and +7 over the next week or so. Something's gotta give way - but when and where ?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 23, 2019, 04:10:07 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 22 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,876,895 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,876,895    km2      
-10,271    km2   <   2010's average.
 283,891    k   >   2018
-436,072    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -21    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -15    k   loss
Central Seas__   -6    k   loss
Other Seas___   -0    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    9    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain
Greenland____   -8    k   loss
Barents ______   -17    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Area LOSS 21 k, 5 k more than the 2010's average loss of 16 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will increase from +1.5 degrees to +6 by next Tuesday, and then and then range between +6 and +7 over the next week or so. Something's gotta give way - but when and where ?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 24, 2019, 04:59:21 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 23rd, 2019:
     13,911,567 km2, a drop of -89,669 km2.
     2019 is 9th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on March 24, 2019, 08:13:26 AM
Two or three further days losses of this size would push 2019 to #4 in that ranking list.
Let's see how Bering Sea will behave the next days. Its change will probably make the difference...
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 24, 2019, 10:36:42 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,911,567 km2(March 23, 2019)

- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 90k, a large 71 k greater than the average loss of 19k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 360k, 155 k (76%) greater than average of 205k,
- On average 2.1% of the melting season done, with 174 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.24 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will increase from +2.5 degrees to +6 on Monday, and then range between +6.5 and +5.5 over the next week or so, with anomalies up to +30 celsius in parts of the Pacific half of the Arctic Basin.. Will this be a real sea ice melt headline event?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 24, 2019, 01:30:27 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 23 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,846,519 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,846,519    km2      
-35,578    km2   <   2010's average.
 276,068    k   >   2018
-446,552    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -30    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -9    k   loss
Central Seas__   -7    k   loss
Other Seas___   -15    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    5    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    10    k   gain
Greenland____   -6    k   loss
Barents ______   -18    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -8    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss
Area LOSS 30 k, 25 k more than the 2010's average loss of 5 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will increase from +2.5 degrees to +6 on Monday, and then range between +6.5 and +5.5 over the next week or so, with anomalies up to +30 celsius in parts of the Pacific half of the Arctic Basin.. Will this be a real sea ice melt headline event?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 24, 2019, 04:09:11 PM
By the pricking of my thumbs methinks that the Arctic over the next week or may be about to have a melting event. The first two images suggest why. (N.B. the Max image does not mean that on a particular day the Arctic temps will look like that. Rather it is the effect on various parts of the Arctic as warmth and cold move around over the 10 days from today).

So I thought I would past all the Arctic Seas area graphs as at yesterday as a benchmark.

Images 3 & 4 show that the melting is still stalled in the Pacific Gateway.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 24, 2019, 04:16:08 PM
Canadian Seas (Hudson, Canadian Archipelago and Baffin) all meandering close to maximum
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 24, 2019, 04:24:08 PM
Atlantic Front
Greenland & Barents maybe showing signs of consistent decline.
Kara and Laptev up and down close to max.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 24, 2019, 04:28:27 PM
Central Arctic Seas (Beaufort, ESS, Central Arctic Sea) all dithering around max.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 24, 2019, 04:32:16 PM
Seas unconnected to the Arctic
St Lawrence crashed and now having 2nd thoughts.
The Okhotsk is staying obstinately cold.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Eco-Author on March 24, 2019, 09:12:07 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 23 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,846,519 km2
Even 'Green arctic' events in May don't seem to yield headlines, yet the difference in temp, say between Northern Alaska and Miami often do.[/td][/tr][/table]
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Hautbois on March 24, 2019, 10:49:00 PM
(posting a bit sheepishly as I've not commented yet this year  ::))

Here's my customary max season chart showing this year's path relative to the maximum position of previous years.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on March 25, 2019, 03:41:53 AM
Thank you Hautbois. It's not the quantity, it's the quality.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 25, 2019, 04:50:36 AM
(posting a bit sheepishly as I've not commented yet this year  ::))

Here's my customary max season chart showing this year's path relative to the maximum position of previous years.
We were missing you, Hautbois! And your excellent graph too!

Two or three further days losses of this size would push 2019 to #4 in that ranking list.
Let's see how Bering Sea will behave the next days. Its change will probably make the difference...
Near the target! And in just one day!

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 24th, 2019:
     13,839,873 km2, a drop of -71,694 km2.
     2019 is now 5th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)

Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 25, 2019, 08:42:46 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,839,873 km2(March 24, 2019)

- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 72k, a variation of 55 k from the average loss of 17k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 431k, 210 k (95%) greater than the average of 221k by this day,
- On average 2.2% of the melting season done, with 173 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.18 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +5 degrees to a  +7 over the next week or so, with extreme anomalies especially in the Pacific half of the Arctic.
Very strong melt to be expected?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 25, 2019, 01:35:34 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 24 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,795,145 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,795,145    km2      
-83,884    km2   <   2010's average.
 227,876    k   >   2018
-476,174    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -51    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -17    k   loss
Central Seas__   -10    k   loss
Other Seas___   -24    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____   -0    k   loss
Barents ______   -19    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -12    k   loss
Area LOSS 51 k, 48 k more than the 2010's average loss of 3 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +5 degrees to a  +7 over the next week or so, with extreme anomalies especially in the Pacific half of the Arctic Basin.. Will this be a real sea ice melt headline event? The high temp anomaly has only just begun - and the 5 day trailing average will delay showing the full effect on sea ice for a couple of days. Will this be a real sea ice melt headline event?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 26, 2019, 04:54:01 AM
Two or three further days losses of this size would push 2019 to #4 in that ranking list.
Let's see how Bering Sea will behave the next days. Its change will probably make the difference...
Near the target! And in just one day!

Well, it happened!
Let’s say that yesterday I was wishing it to happen. If I have to convince some decision-making people that things are pretty bad, I prefer to have low values in March than low values in September.
But today, I am the one who is concerned of what may happen on 2019.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 25th, 2019:
     13,756,437 km2, a drop of -83,436 km2.
     2019 is now 4th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 26, 2019, 08:51:07 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,756,437 km2(March 25, 2019)

- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 83k, a variation of 91 k from the average gain of 8 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 515k, 302 k (142%) greater than the average of 213k by this day,
- On average 2.1% of the melting season done, with 172 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.09 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +6 degrees to +7 until the end of the month, then down later to +5, with extreme anomalies especially in the Pacific half of the Arctic.
Very strong melt to be continued?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 26, 2019, 01:49:05 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 25 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,713,030 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,713,030    km2      
-165,387    km2   <   2010's average.
 154,876    k   >   2018
-543,609    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -82    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -30    k   loss
Central Seas__   -17    k   loss
Other Seas___   -34    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -3    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______   -21    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -11    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -15    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -14    k   loss
Area LOSS 82 k, 81 k more than the 2010's average loss of 1 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +6 degrees to +7 until the end of the month, then down later to +5, with extreme anomalies especially in the Pacific half of the Arctic. The high temp anomaly only began a day or two ago- and the 5 day trailing average already showing very high declines. Will this be a real sea ice melt headline event?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 27, 2019, 04:51:17 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 26th, 2019:
     13,729,380 km2, a drop of -27,057 km2.
     2019 is 4th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 27, 2019, 08:29:47 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,729,380 km2(March 26, 2019)

- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 27k, 24 k greater than the average loss of 4 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 542k, 325 k (150%) greater than the average of 217k loss by this day,
- On average 2.2% of the melting season done, with 171 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.07 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +6 degrees to +7.5 until the end of the month, then down later to +6, with extreme anomalies especially in the Pacific half of the Arctic.
Very strong melt to be continued?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 27, 2019, 01:43:54 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 26 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,630,689 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,630,689    km2      
-253,913    km2   <   2010's average.
 73,899    k   >   2018
-610,739    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -82    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -38    k   loss
Central Seas__   -13    k   loss
Other Seas___   -32    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -14    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -14    k   loss
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______   -14    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -11    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -19    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -10    k   loss
Area LOSS 82 k, a variation of 88 k from the 2010's average gain of 6 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +6 degrees to +7.5 until the end of the month, then down later to +6, with extreme anomalies especially in the Pacific half of the Arctic.
The high temperature anomaly only began about 3 days ago- and the 5 day trailing average is now showing very high declines, and is now also showing in the 5 day trailing average extent data

Will this be a real sea ice melt headline event?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 28, 2019, 04:49:14 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 27th, 2019:
     13,734,954 km2, a small increase of 5,574 km2.
     2019 is 4th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 28, 2019, 08:38:54 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,734,954 km2(March 27, 2019)

- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent gain on this day 6k, varying by 10 k from the average loss of 4 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 536k, 316 k (143%) greater than the average of 220k loss by this day,
- On average 2.2% of the melting season done, with 170 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.07 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +6 degrees to +7.5 until the end of the month, then down later to +6, with extreme anomalies especially in the Pacific half of the Arctic.
Very strong melt to be continued after the blip on this day?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 28, 2019, 01:30:51 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 27 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,559,528 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,559,528    km2      
-340,767    km2   <   2010's average.
-6,364    k   <   2018
-667,336    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -71    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -32    k   loss
Central Seas__   -16    k   loss
Other Seas___   -23    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -23    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______   -4    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -12    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______   -5    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -14    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Area LOSS 71 k, a variation of 88 k from the 2010's average gain of 17 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +6 degrees to +7.5 until the end of the month, then down later to +5.5, with extreme anomalies especially in the Pacific half of the Arctic.
The high temperature anomaly began about 4 days ago- and the 5 day trailing average is now showing very high declines, and high declines are now also showing in the 5 day trailing average extent data

Will this be a real sea ice melt headline event? And for how long?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 29, 2019, 04:46:31 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 28th, 2019:
     13,702,099 km2, a drop of -32,855 km2.
     2019 is 4th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 29, 2019, 08:10:28 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,702,099 km2(March 28, 2019)

- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 33k, varying by 10 k from the average loss of 23 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 569k, 326 k (134%) greater than the average of 243k loss by this day,
- On average 2.5% of the melting season done, with 169 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.06 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +7 degrees to +7.5 until the end of the month, then gradually drift down in the following week to around +3.5, with extreme anomalies especially in the Pacific half of the Arctic.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 29, 2019, 11:35:04 AM
I think now there's enough data to calculate the average maximum date. Using 15-day averages should take the weather effects out and 29-days should eliminate the possible effect of moon phases aka tides.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 29, 2019, 01:18:49 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 28 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,498,845 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,498,845    km2      
-417,378    km2   <   2010's average.
-83,043    k   <   2018
-712,197    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -60    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -27    k   loss
Central Seas__   -19    k   loss
Other Seas___   -15    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -24    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -15    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______   -8    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -14    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Area LOSS 60 k, a variation of 76 k from the 2010's average gain of 16 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from +7 degrees to +7.5 until the end of the month, then gradually drift down in the following week to around +3.5.

The high temperature anomaly began about 5 days ago, and the 5 day trailing average is still showing very high declines, and high declines are now also showing in the 5 day trailing average extent data.

Will this sea ice melt continue long enough to be a real headline event? And for how long?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 30, 2019, 05:29:56 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 29th, 2019:
     13,588,813 km2, a century drop of -113,286 km2.
     2019 is 3th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Lennart van der Linde on March 30, 2019, 08:47:12 AM
Oh, oh...
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on March 30, 2019, 09:08:56 AM
Oh, oh,...
Another little drop below 13.55 M km² tomorrow will push 2019 to the lowest extent ever measured on that date. Not good!
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 30, 2019, 10:37:31 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,588,813 km2(March 29, 2019)

- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 113k, 87 k GREATER than the average loss of 26 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 682k, 413 k (154%) greater than the average of 269k loss by this day,
- On average 2.7% of the melting season done, with 168 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.98 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will drift down from +7.5  to around +4.5 over the next 10 days, with extreme anomalies initially in the Chuckchi & Beaufort and later in the Kara & Laptev regions.

Strong extent loss may continue, but there is less than 3% of the melting season done.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: binntho on March 30, 2019, 11:40:46 AM
I think the loss at 113 must be 87k more than the average loss of 26k - not less.

I know it's confusing, but if both figures show loss then the bigger figure shows more loss. Alternatively, if both figures show gain the bigger figure shows more gain.

The problem arises in how to express the difference between loss and gain. If the loss in a given day is 50k and the average is a gain of 25k for that day, it would be incorrect to say that the loss was 75k more than average for that day, perhaps the most correct phrasing would be " 50k loss, a difference of 75k from the average of 25k gain".
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: pietkuip on March 30, 2019, 12:20:22 PM
Yes, I agree. I looked at the graph first, saw that it was melting fast. So I was surprised to read that extent loss was less than average.  It is difficult with negative numbers but it would be clearer to write this in a different way. Maybe using words like "faster"/"slower"?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 30, 2019, 12:23:23 PM
I think the loss at 113 must be 87k more than the average loss of 26k - not less.

I know it's confusing, but if both figures show loss then the bigger figure shows more loss. Alternatively, if both figures show gain the bigger figure shows more gain.

The problem arises in how to express the difference between loss and gain. If the loss in a given day is 50k and the average is a gain of 25k for that day, it would be incorrect to say that the loss was 75k more than average for that day, perhaps the most correct phrasing would be " 50k loss, a difference of 75k from the average of 25k gain".
Whoops ! That was an oversight. 113k was obviously a greater loss than the average loss. The only confusion should be when gain occurs against a normal loss or vice versa, which is when I do use the phrase "a variation of x k from....".
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: DavidR on March 31, 2019, 06:07:18 AM
A JAXA extent loss of -165712 km^2 today drops the extent over {150K corrected} 137K below the previous record for the day. This is the lowest March value since at least 2002. It is also the second largest single day loss for March.  Yesterdays drop of 113K was the 6th largest drop.
 
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 31, 2019, 07:00:59 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 30th, 2019:
     13,423,101 km2, a century drop of -165,712 km2.  :o
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
 
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on March 31, 2019, 08:30:19 AM
This drop is higher and steeper than I thought it would be. If there were no further change in the next days (what I do not expect), 2019 will keep the record low position at least until April 3.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: jdallen on March 31, 2019, 08:35:40 AM
This drop is higher and steeper than I thought it would be. If there were no further change in the next days (what I do not expect), 2019 will keep the record low position at least until April 3.
I think it will get worse.  There is much that will be lost in the Barents and Bering, as well as possibly the Okhotsk.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on March 31, 2019, 08:52:39 AM
This certainly deserves a wow!
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 31, 2019, 10:46:28 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,423,101 km2(March 30, 2019)

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 166k, 147 k GREATER than the average loss of 19 k on this day. Not quite a record breaker for March (March 23 2014 loss 169k).
- Extent loss from maximum 848k, 560 k (195%) greater than the average of 288k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 2.9% of the melting season done, with 168 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.83 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.65 million above the 2017 low of 3.18 milliom km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.128 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a max of 7.8 today to around +4.8 over the next 10 days, with extreme anomalies initially in the Chuckchi & Beaufort and very soon after in the Kara & Laptev regions.

Strong extent loss may continue, but there is 97% of the melting season remaining to be done.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: magnamentis on March 31, 2019, 11:20:07 AM
- Extent loss on this day 166k, 147 k GREATER than the average loss of 19 k on this day. Not quite a record breaker for March (March 23 2014 loss 169k).

i think it's worth to see where and how much more peripheral ice there was in 2014, hence we are now comparing numbers with earlier years that loose their comparability to a certain extent because once the CAB will lose 100k i march it will mean much more and be much worse than i.e. the 169k in march 2014 in quite "southern"  peripheral seas.

i'm sure someone can put this thought into better language than i can but hope what i'm heading it is somehow comprehensive.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 31, 2019, 02:34:00 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 30 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,390,366 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,390,366    km2      
-539,986    km2   <   2010's average.
-239,360    k   <   2018
-790,445    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -55    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -25    k   loss
Central Seas__   -10    k   loss
Other Seas___   -20    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -26    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -5    k   loss
Chukchi______   -9    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -22    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Area LOSS 55 k, a variation of 60 k from the 2010's average gain of 5 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a max of 7.8 today to around +4.8 over the next 10 days, with extreme anomalies initially in the Chuckchi & Beaufort and very soon after in the Kara & Laptev regions.

The high temperature anomaly began about 5 days ago, and the 5 day trailing average is still showing very high declines, and high declines are now also showing in the 5 day trailing average extent data.

A surprise (to me at least) is that total area as of yesterday and today is now the lowest in the satellite record for those two days (for the first time in 2019)

This recent sea ice melt has continued long enough to be a  headline event. And for how much  longer?
[/quote]
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on March 31, 2019, 06:01:05 PM
Evaluating the individual seas between March 13 and March 31 the biggest contributors are Barents, Okhotsk, St. Lawrence, Kara and Baffin, of which St. Lawrence showed the biggest relative decrease (63 %). All of these seas are quite "southern" and - except for Kara - not part of the "inner seas" close to CAB.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: FishOutofWater on March 31, 2019, 06:13:52 PM
I am not aware of a larger 2 day drop in March. The bottom dropped out and the sea of Okhotsk has a large area of thin dispersed ice that could blink out quickly in the next few days.

The weather is going to shift to deep lows in the Labrador sea over the next week. That's going to increase ice export and fresh water out of the Labrador sea and increase deep water formation where the cold air blasts off of eastern Canada onto the shelf edge. The coming weather will speed up ice loss in the Labrador and Greenland seas.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 31, 2019, 07:34:49 PM
Evaluating the individual seas between March 13 and March 31 the biggest contributors are Barents, Okhotsk, St. Lawrence, Kara and Baffin, of which St. Lawrence showed the biggest relative decrease (63 %). All of these seas are quite "southern" and - except for Kara - not part of the "inner seas" close to CAB.

And yet the central Arctic Seas have collectively strung 14 days of consecutive losses.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Darvince on March 31, 2019, 07:39:52 PM
Which have been almost wholly in Kara and Chukchi from the 'leakage'/influence of what's going on in Barents and Bering repsectively.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 01, 2019, 05:47:22 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 31st, 2019:
     13,375,181 km2, a drop of -47,920 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on April 01, 2019, 08:42:08 AM
If there were no further drop in the next days (what I do not expect), 2019 will keep the record low position at least until April 5.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Neven on April 01, 2019, 09:54:26 AM
This year had the lowest average daily change in the JAXA SIE 2005-2019 record:
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: b_lumenkraft on April 01, 2019, 10:12:32 AM
This year had the lowest average daily change in the JAXA SIE 2005-2019 record:

"Highest" daily change!

It's negative numbers, but it's a greater change.

Language is a bitch, isn't it?  ;)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Killian on April 01, 2019, 10:36:22 AM
If there were no further drop in the next days (what I do not expect), 2019 will keep the record low position at least until April 5.

I just posted the same on another forum. March 12 to 31 is a record loss for that time period. Average loss is 46 to 48k if my really poor math skills are to be believed.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Neven on April 01, 2019, 10:58:24 AM
Language is a bitch, isn't it?  ;)

I'm a translator, tell me about it.  ;D

Quote
"Highest" daily change!

It's negative numbers, but it's a greater change.

But it's the lowest average, right? Should I have said 'lowest daily change average' instead of 'lowest average daily change'?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Avalonian on April 01, 2019, 11:03:11 AM
'Greatest average daily drop' would do the job unambiguously.  :)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 01, 2019, 11:12:21 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,375,181 km2(March 31, 2019)

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 48k, 39 k greater than the average loss of 9 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 896k, 599 k (202%) greater than the average of 297k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 3.0% of the melting season done, with 167 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.79 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.61 million km2 above the 2017 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.155 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a max of 6.9 today to around +4.5 over the next 10 days, with the most extreme anomalies over Monday to Wednesday in the Kara & Laptev and then the ESS regions.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 01, 2019, 11:19:09 AM
'Greatest average daily drop' would do the job unambiguously.  :)

I comment about extent loss slightly differently in my posts, e.g.

"- Extent loss from maximum 896k, 599 k (202%) greater than the average of 297k loss from maximum by this day,"
Or even more simply, extent loss from maximum is 3 times the average.

No matter how you say it or what data you use, it is an event.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: b_lumenkraft on April 01, 2019, 11:21:00 AM
'Greatest average daily drop' would do the job unambiguously.  :)

+1

But it's the lowest average, right? Should I have said 'lowest daily change average' instead of 'lowest average daily change'?

When it comes to average, i'm out. It's getting blurry here. ;)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Neven on April 01, 2019, 11:50:17 AM
'Greatest average daily drop' would do the job unambiguously.  :)

Yes, I thought about that. The problem is: Some years had an average increase. Of course, that could be seen as a negative drop.

Either way, it will be easier after this, because from now on the SIE will drop for all years.  :)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: binntho on April 01, 2019, 12:44:59 PM
'Greatest average daily drop' would do the job unambiguously.  :)

Yes, I thought about that. The problem is: Some years had an average increase. Of course, that could be seen as a negative drop.

Either way, it will be easier after this, because from now on the SIE will drop for all years.  :)
I would go for something like "biggest negative average daily change" but somehow it just seems to getting more and more confusing ...
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 01, 2019, 02:06:29 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 31 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,338,818 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,338,818    km2      
-590,059    km2   <   2010's average.
-315,854    k   <   2018
-830,863    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -52    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -16    k   loss
Central Seas__   -18    k   loss
Other Seas___   -17    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -16    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    7    k   gain
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -23    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    7    k   gain
Area loss 52 k, a variation of 51 k from the 2010's average loss of 1 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a max of 6.9 today to around +4.5 over the next 10 days, with the most extreme anomalies over Monday to Wednesday in the Kara & Laptev and the ESS regions.

The high temperature anomaly began about 5 days ago, and the 5 day trailing average is still showing very high declines, and high declines are now also showing in the 5 day trailing average extent data.

This recent sea ice melt has continued long enough to be a  headline event. And for how much  longer?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 01, 2019, 03:18:49 PM
It's the end of the month - so some area graphs

Pacific Gateway
Bering Sea looks like the melt is irreversible.
The area loss in the Chukchi might be just another giant wobble, or may be an extraordinarily early start to the melt season.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 01, 2019, 03:27:48 PM
Canadian Seas

Baffin Bay losing area over the month well below the 2010's average
Canadian Archipelago dithering around the maximum.
Hudson Bay a bit below the 2010's average
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 01, 2019, 03:43:06 PM
Atlantic Front
Greenland Sea area drifting along around the 2010's average - ice export from the Fram ?

Barents Sea area peaked in mid-March at well above 2010's average and ends the month below.

Kara and Laptev area losses since mid-March are impressive and bring area to well below the 2010's average and very early. Being so early the question is whether this loss will be sustained or could there be a rebound?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 01, 2019, 03:47:25 PM
The melting season has not yet reached the Central Arctic.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 01, 2019, 03:50:32 PM
Other Seas

Okhotsk pretty much average,
St Lawrence now average after a high March maximum.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Ktb on April 02, 2019, 05:07:52 AM
Bimonthly BOE evaluation.

Max was reached on March 12, and was 14,271,121 km^2. Required average daily drop of -71.736 km^2 for a BOE to occur. We have had 5 days of above the necessary melt, and many days that had above average melt (quite impressive for March if you ask me). Total extent loss as of March 31 was -895,840 km^2, which is 467,140 km^2 shy of maintaining the necessary track for a BOE (attachment 2).

Instead, we have averaged an impressive -47,149 km^2 per day during the period between maximum and March 31. Since 2007, we have had only 1 year (2014) that had greater average loss during the period between the maximum and March 31 (attachment 3)

As of April 1st, we now require an average daily drop of -74,550 km^2 for the next 166 days.



Edit: And again, I want to emphasize that I am aware that we will most likely see FALSE for the entire season. I get it. I made and maintain this to show how difficult/significant a BOE will be. Who knows when this will be useful.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 02, 2019, 05:49:53 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 1st, 2019:
     13,308,217 km2, a drop of -66,964 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 02, 2019, 11:18:44 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,308,217 km2(April 1, 2019)

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 67k, 49 k greater than the average loss of 18 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 963k, 648 k (206%) greater than the average of 315k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 3.2% of the melting season done, with 165 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.74 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.57 million km2 above the 2017 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.198 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a +6.6 today to around +3.8 over the next 10 days.The current extreme +ve anomalies  in the Kara & Laptev & ESS regions that stretch as far as the North Pole will moderate over the next few days.

Will extent loss also gradually moderate ?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 02, 2019, 02:38:29 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 1 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,282,513 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,282,513    km2      
-635,562    km2   <   2010's average.
-382,908    k   <   2018
-874,092    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -56    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -14    k   loss
Central Seas__   -21    k   loss
Other Seas___   -21    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -10    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -11    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -9    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -24    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Area loss 56 k, a variation of 45 k from the 2010's average loss of 11 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 4 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from +6.6 today to around +3.8 over the next 10 days.The current extreme +ve anomalies  in the Kara & Laptev & ESS regions that stretch as far as the North Pole will moderate over the next few days.

The high temperature anomaly began about one week ago, and the 5 day trailing average is still showing very high declines, and high declines are now also showing in the 5 day trailing average extent data.

This recent sea ice melt has continued long enough to be a  headline event. As +ve anomalies drop will daily area loss drop as well?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: b_lumenkraft on April 02, 2019, 08:31:22 PM
This recent sea ice melt has continued long enough to be a headline event.

Since you mentioned it the first time i was looking for that.

As far as my google skills got me, only our controversial friend Sam Carana mentioned it so far.

Link >> http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/03/arctic-warming-up-fast.html
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 02, 2019, 09:03:37 PM
This recent sea ice melt has continued long enough to be a headline event.

Since you mentioned it the first time i was looking for that.

As far as my google skills got me, only our controversial friend Sam Carana mentioned it so far.

Link >> http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/03/arctic-warming-up-fast.html

I chucked the info in as an off-topic comment in a guardian piece re Brexit by Marina Hyde (always worth a read if you like savage humour - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/02/macho-drama-queens-brexit-steve-baker-mark-francois#comment-127641115 )
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: b_lumenkraft on April 02, 2019, 09:14:26 PM
I chucked the info in as an off-topic comment in a guardian

That's pretty 'subversive'. I like it a lot. Well done sir.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Downpuppy on April 02, 2019, 09:30:38 PM
Quote
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from +6.6 today to around +3.8 over the next 10 days.

Given the slope of the average at this point, is this about the same as saying the temperature will be flat?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 02, 2019, 10:32:59 PM
Quote
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from +6.6 today to around +3.8 over the next 10 days.

Given the slope of the average at this point, is this about the same as saying the temperature will be flat?

Climate Reanalyzer shows anomalies as variation from the 1979-2000 average. So +3.8 celsius is still (though not hugely) above, the average Arctic temperature increase from that baseline average. And who knows what tomorrow will bring.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 03, 2019, 05:50:53 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 2nd, 2019:
     13,235,128 km2, a drop of -73,089 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)


210K km2 difference versus 2016 (now 2nd lowest)? Fiuu!  :o
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on April 03, 2019, 08:37:26 AM
2019 is now six days ahead (8.4.2016 had the same extent as 2.4.2019) and further extent losses are likely.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 03, 2019, 08:56:32 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,235,128 km2(April 2, 2019)

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record for the fourth day in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 73k, 51 k greater than the average loss of 21 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1036k, 700 k (209%) greater than the average of 336k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 3.4% of the melting season done, with 164 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.69 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.51 million km2 above the 2017 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.239 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a +6.8 today to around +5 over the next 10 days, i.e. a bit higher. The current extreme +ve anomalies in the Kara & Laptev & ESS regions that stretch as far as the North Pole will moderate over the next few days.

Will extent loss also gradually moderate (or will it just keep on going)?

ps: I have added 2016 (and 2017 for completeness) to the total extent graph as 2016 is mostly the front-runner for the next month or two.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 03, 2019, 02:19:16 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 2 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,228,722 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,228,722    km2      
-671,956    km2   <   2010's average.
-428,283    k   <   2018
-917,001    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -54    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -14    k   loss
Central Seas__   -18    k   loss
Other Seas___   -21    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -8    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______   -11    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______   -4    k   loss
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -21    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Area loss 54 k, a variation of 37 k from the 2010's average loss of 17 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 5 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a +6.8 today to around +5 over the next 10 days, i.e. a bit higher. The current extreme +ve anomalies in the Kara & Laptev & ESS regions that stretch as far as the North Pole will moderate over the next few days.

The high temperature anomaly began over one week ago, and the 5 day trailing average is still showing very high declines, and high declines are now also persisting in the 5 day trailing average extent data.

This recent sea ice melt has continued long enough to be a  headline event. As +ve temp anomalies drop moderate will area loss also gradually moderate (or will it just keep on going)?

ps: NSIDC Daily Extent (5 day trailing average) also lowest for 5 days in a row
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 04, 2019, 05:45:36 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 3rd, 2019:
     13,199,621 km2, a drop of -35,507 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)


The 5 lowest years today: 2015-2019.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 04, 2019, 08:13:40 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,199,621 km2(April 3, 2019)

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record for the fifth day in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 36k, 2 k more than the average loss of 34 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1072k, 702 k (190%) greater than the average of 370k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 3.7% of the melting season done, with 163 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.69 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.51 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.275 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a +6.8 today to around +3 over the next 10 days. The current extreme +ve anomalies in the Kara & Laptev & ESS regions that stretch as far as the North Pole will moderate over the next few days.

Will extent loss also gradually moderate (or will it just keep on going)?

ps: I have added 2016 (and 2017 for completeness) to the total extent graph as 2016 is mostly the front-runner for the next month or two.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Alison on April 04, 2019, 12:46:39 PM
Quote
0.51 million km2 above the 2017 low of 3.18 million km2

Forgive me Gerontocrat. But should your ‘7’ be a ‘2’?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 04, 2019, 02:50:56 PM
Quote
0.51 million km2 above the 2017 low of 3.18 million km2

Forgive me Gerontocrat. But should your ‘7’ be a ‘2’?
Yes it should.
Too many spreadsheets - was thinking about Global Sea Ice extent.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 04, 2019, 03:08:41 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 3 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,180,612 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,180,612    km2      
-704,607    km2   <   2010's average.
-459,241    k   <   2018
-954,539    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -48    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -22    k   loss
Central Seas__   -18    k   loss
Other Seas___   -9    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -8    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______   -9    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -12    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -14    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    6    k   gain

Area loss 48 k,  33 k more than the 2010's average loss of 15 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 6 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a +6.8 today to around +3 over the next 10 days. The current extreme +ve anomalies in the Kara & Laptev & ESS regions that stretch as far as the North Pole will moderate over the next few days.

The high temperature anomaly began over one week ago, and the 5 day trailing average is still showing very high declines, and high declines are now also persisting in the 5 day trailing average extent data.

This recent sea ice melt has continued long enough to be a  headline event. As +ve temp anomalies drop moderate, will area loss also gradually moderate (or will it just keep on going)?

ps: NSIDC Daily Extent (5 day trailing average) also lowest.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Jontenoy on April 04, 2019, 07:40:40 PM
Can someone please explain the difference between area and extent ?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 04, 2019, 07:44:54 PM
Can someone please explain the difference between area and extent ?

Have a read of Tealight's documentation to his systems at https://cryospherecomputing.tk/doc.html

All will be revealed (plus a bit of history).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 05, 2019, 06:00:54 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 4th, 2019:
     13,131,874 km2, a drop of -67,747 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)

Amazing!
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on April 05, 2019, 09:06:19 AM
The top losers of sea ice area (see gerontocrat's posting above) from March 20-April 3 are Okhotsk, Barents, Bering and Kara Seas. In relative numbers the decrease in sea ice area is highest in Bering, followed by St. Lawrence and Barents. Almost no change still in the central Arctic seas such as CAA, CAB and ESS.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Jontenoy on April 05, 2019, 09:45:55 AM
Area / Extent. Here is a take on the difference re. 2016 September minimum :

" The articifcal area increase hides how close to an ice-free state the Arctic really is. The 2016 September daily minimum was announched as 4.14 million km2, but the true sea ice area was only 2.34 million km2. A good description of the minimum would be: The 2016 September minimum ice cover was 2.34 million km2 spread out over an area of 4.14 million km2. If we have a completely ice free ocean then the additional area soaking up solar energy is just 2.34 million km2 and not 4.14 million km2."
The smaller the grid size (presently 25 * 25 km), the less the difference between Area and Extent. For calculations on energy transfer etc. , Area would be a better metric ?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 05, 2019, 10:11:18 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,131,874 km2(April 4, 2019)

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record for the sixth day in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 68k, 26 k more than the average loss of 42 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1139k, 728 k (177%) greater than the average of 412k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 4.2% of the melting season done, with 163 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.66 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.48 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.275 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 6 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. It looks very much if this will continue for at least 2 weeks longer.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a +6.0 today to around +2.5 over the next 10 days.

Will extent loss also gradually moderate (or will it just keep on going, or be cold enough for a refreeze in e.g. the Kara and Laptev seas)?

ps: I have added 2016 (and 2017 for completeness) to the total extent graph as 2016 is mostly the front-runner for the next month or two.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: LRC1962 on April 05, 2019, 10:13:56 AM
For calculations on energy transfer etc. , Area would be a better metric ?
I believe both are very valuable. Let us take pre 2000 and the extent and area were very similar not because of grid size, but because there was a much smaller dispersion area involved. Now that has been completely changed. extent is now almost twice the size as area. Just focusing on either extent or area then fitting in your energy transfer formula will give a false reading because area  size does not tell you dispersion. On the other hand extend will also have the same problem because it does not indicate how dense the pack ice is. Combining the two gives a far better indicator  early in the melt season as to how vulnerable the ice is but early in the freeze up it can also tell you potentially how much could possibly form. There is nothing simple about ice.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: ijgosse on April 05, 2019, 10:22:04 AM
Good day,
I have been an attentive and permanent lurker for a couple of years, and really appreciate the profound knowledge and experience contributing to this forum.

There is an issue that has been nagging at the back of head for the last years, and that this open water, and more precisely the total time (days during the year) that the seas / oceans / bays that constitute the Artic Sea area have open water during the year. And also how soon there is already open water and the potential feedback that has on issue as jet stream movement, water favor, ocean currents and the like.

I understand that every year there is day by day analysis of what record will be smashed (or has been smashed) and whether there will be a BOE. I agree with the seriousness of these implications and the effects we are already witnesses around the globe.

However, if we look at 2012 when a ´perfect storm´ resulted in the current min. Arctic sea ice extent and compare this with for instance 2016. Yes the min. sea ice extent in 2016 was much higher (around 4 million km2), but there as already more open water during the period april till half july in 2016 then in 2012 (only in mid July of 2012 did the extent descrease in value in comparison to 2016). So my question would be to those that have more accumulated knowledge that I, has there been calculations on the effect that each day of open water has issues such as jet stream movement, water favor, ocean currents and the like?

And has this been expressed in some form? Perhaps km2 open water per day? Or accumulative open water during the year? Could taking the area of each of the seas be taken as a starting point.

Somehow looking at developments this year (2019) it is clear that every 1 km2 of open water that is added on a daily will start to absorb heat till it freezes over again (if it does) when winter arrives.

Appologies if the post is what long, but looking forward to feedback. Thank you Jeroen
 
<I've copied your question to a more appropriate thread (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1749.msg194012.html#msg194012); N.>
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 05, 2019, 02:20:19 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 4 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,158,300 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,158,300    km2      
-711,089    km2   <   2010's average.
-454,922    k   <   2018
-962,606    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -22    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -6    k   loss
Central Seas__   -4    k   loss
Other Seas___   -12    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -6    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -5    k   loss
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -23    k   loss
St Lawrence___    4    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    7    k   gain

Area loss 22 k,  6 k more than the 2010's average loss of 16 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 7 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a +6.0 today to around +2.5 over the next 10 days. The recent extreme +ve anomalies in the Kara & Laptev & ESS regions that stretched as far as the North Pole have moderated.

This recent sea ice melt has continued long enough to be a  headline event. As +ve temp anomalies drop will extent loss also be moderate as it is on this day, or will it be cold enough for a refreeze in e.g. the Kara and Laptev seas?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Jontenoy on April 05, 2019, 03:55:57 PM
Hi Ijgosse,

There are many ways to melt ice..... Heat from the air, how fast the air is moving (forced convection), adsorbtion of sunlight (albed of the ice surface) ,  salinity of surrounding water,  and most important, the heat arriving through the ocean currents. My guess is that the last one is the most important ( perhaps our learned colleagues could quantify all of them ?). Given the many factors, it becomes a multi-variable ill conditioned equation which is another way of saying anything can happen . Clear as mud !
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: ijgosse on April 05, 2019, 08:46:16 PM
Hi Jontenoy,
you´re right about the multiple ways the ice is getting hit and that it under attack from different angle....soon to become mud....
cheers
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 06, 2019, 05:52:59 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 5th, 2019:
     13,090,953 km2, a drop of -40,921 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on April 06, 2019, 07:50:55 AM
2019 is now 11 days in advance (April 16, 2018 had a lower value than extent yesterday). 2019 will probably keep its lowest position for the next days.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 06, 2019, 08:19:58 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,090,953 km2(April 5, 2019)

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 7 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 41k, 0 k more than the average loss of 41 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,180k, 727 k (161%) greater than the average of 453k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 4.6% of the melting season done, with 161 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.66 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.48 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.275 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 7 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. It looks very much if this will continue for at least 2 weeks longer.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a +5.5 today to around +3 over the next 10 days.

Will extent loss also gradually moderate (or will it just keep on going, or be cold enough for a refreeze in e.g. the Kara and Laptev seas)?

ps: I have added 2016 (and 2017 for completeness) to the total extent graph as 2016 is mostly the front-runner for the next month or two.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 06, 2019, 02:32:31 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,127,860 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,127,860    km2      
-719,941    km2   <   2010's average.
-441,339    k   <   2018
-976,598    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -30    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -10    k   loss
Central Seas__    11    k   gain
Other Seas___   -32    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -4    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    7    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -32    k   loss

St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain

Area loss 30 k,  8 k more than the 2010's average loss of 22 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 8 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from a +5.2 today to around +2 over the next 10 days.  The recent extreme +ve anomalies in the Kara & Laptev & ESS regions that stretched as far as the North Pole have moderated. It looks like stronger warmth will return to the Bering / Chukchi seas and Baffin Bay.

This recent sea ice melt has continued long enough to be a  headline event. As +ve temp anomalies drop will extent loss also be moderate as it is on this day, or will it be cold enough for a significant refreeze e.g. in the Kara and Laptev seas that has already started?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: FishOutofWater on April 06, 2019, 08:10:15 PM
Models almost always revert to mean temperatures over time... except the CFS which can lean persistently warm. The last ten days have been exceptionally warm so reversion towards the mean is very likely.

The ECMWF forecasts a strong flow of warm air from the Pacific through the Bering strait into the Arctic in the 6 to 10 day average. This will continue the sea ice melting on the Pacific and eastern Siberian sides of the Arctic.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 07, 2019, 05:59:57 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 6th, 2019:
     13,012,589 km2, a drop of -78,364 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Viggy on April 07, 2019, 07:33:29 AM
~340k less than the previous record ... :o
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on April 07, 2019, 08:27:20 AM
~340k less than the previous record ... :o
...and still ten to eleven days ahead of any other year since 1979 (2018 had a slightly lower value on April 17)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 07, 2019, 09:22:49 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :13,012,589 km2(April 6, 2019)

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 8 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 78k, 46 k more than the average loss of 32 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,259k, 774 k (160%) greater than the average of 485k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 4.9% of the melting season done, with 160 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.62 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.44 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.223 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 8 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. It looks very much if this will continue for at least 2 weeks longer. At that point 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent. 

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +5 today to around +2 over the next week.

Will extent loss also gradually moderate, or will it just keep on going, or be cold enough for a refreeze in e.g. the Kara and Laptev seas)?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 07, 2019, 03:03:51 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 6 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,078,242 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,078,242    km2      
-745,696    km2   <   2010's average.
-450,288    k   <   2018
-1,010,742    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -49    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -23    k   loss
Central Seas__    17    k   gain
Other Seas___   -44    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -3    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -17    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    7    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -37    k   loss

St Lawrence___   -7    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Area loss 49 k,  25 k more than the 2010's average loss of 24 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 9 days in a row.

Other Stuff
It looks like stronger warmth will return to the Bering / Chukchi seas and Baffin Bay.

This recent sea ice melt has continued long enough to be a  headline event. As +ve temp anomalies drop will extent loss also be moderate as it is on this day, or will it be cold enough for a significant refreeze e.g. in the Kara and Laptev seas that has already started? After all, if not for the Okhotsk Sea ice falling to bits, area ice loss would be minimal.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Jorge on April 07, 2019, 09:01:25 PM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :13,012,589 km2(April 6, 2019)
I think there is an error in your table of projections. In the last two lines (minimum and maximum) it doesn't take into account 2018 numbers.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on April 07, 2019, 09:59:33 PM
I took the monthly extent value for March and added it into my long-term plot where I calculate the anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average March extent is now 15,28 M km². March 2019 had an average extent of 14,55 M km², which is (like it was in February 2019) 0,73 M km² less.
In March 2019 the anomaly is 0,33 M km² above the long-term linear trend (it also was above in Nov 18, Dec 18, Jan 19 and Feb 19), which calculated this March should have been at 14,22 M km². With the strong losses in the last week I expect that April 2019 will lie slightly below this linear trend line.

See attached graph.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: icefree on April 07, 2019, 11:12:19 PM
From just glancing at the trend lines (total extent)
It looks as if the line will continue downward in at least as steep an incline as the rest of the years which will make 2019 the record lowest extent!
Also the developing positive feed backs and rising CO2 levels which have a lag effect are going to increasingly make their effects known and the exponential nature of the incipient ecological climate disaster should soon cause year after year after year declines in extent growing in magnitude until the BOE becomes a reality.
Increasing areas of open water will also accelerate the BOE which unless global warming is not such a serious crisis as it has been publicized to be is certain to be upon us in the near future.
To put it yet another way after starting the year without much divergence from the group of trend lines it appears that the melting ice has finally "Jumped the Shark"
I'm starting to take near term human extinction forecasts more seriously!
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 08, 2019, 05:51:46 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 7th, 2019:
     12,972,565 km2, a drop of -40,024 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)


2019 now below the 13M km2.
Almost for sure, 2019 April average will be the lowest April average on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 08, 2019, 06:43:21 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
Almost for sure, 2019 April average will be the lowest April average on record.
As of today (April 7th), 2019 April average is 13.14M km2, only 145K km2 above the lowest on record (2016: 12.99M km2). And today value of 12.97M km2 is already below the 12.99M km2.

If 2019 keeps the value of 12.97M km2 until April 30th, the 2019 April average will be 13.01M km2. But we know that extent will continue dropping on average, so it seems highly probable that 2019 will be the lowest on record.

It is also interesting that 2012 April average is 13.94M km2. It seems highly probable that 2019 will be below 12.94M km2, so 2019 April average will be more than one million km2 below 2012.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: El Cid on April 08, 2019, 07:21:29 AM

It looks as if the line will continue downward in at least as steep an incline as the rest of the years which will make 2019 the record lowest extent!
...
I'm starting to take near term human extinction forecasts more seriously!

You'll come to see that the Arctic is out there to fool you. Noone in my experience can forecast, not even a single year but the next month either.

As for extinction, I don't believe in that. Humanity is quite versatile.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Wherestheice on April 08, 2019, 07:38:19 AM

It looks as if the line will continue downward in at least as steep an incline as the rest of the years which will make 2019 the record lowest extent!
...
I'm starting to take near term human extinction forecasts more seriously!

You'll come to see that the Arctic is out there to fool you. Noone in my experience can forecast, not even a single year but the next month either.

As for extinction, I don't believe in that. Humanity is quite versatile.

Extinction is the rule
Survival is the exception
~ Carl Sagan
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 08, 2019, 08:13:57 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :12,972,565 km2(April 7, 2019)

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 9 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 40k, 11 k more than the average loss of 29 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,299k, 785 k (153%) greater than the average of 513k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 5.2% of the melting season done, with 159 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.61 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.43 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.240 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 9 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. It looks very much if this will continue for at least 2 weeks longer. Indeed, if daily extent loss continues at average 2019 will stay lowest to the end of the month. At that point 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent. 

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +4.5 today to around +1 over the next week.

Will extent loss also gradually moderate, or will it just keep on going, or be cold enough for a refreeze in e.g. the Kara and Laptev seas)?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 08, 2019, 08:30:03 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :13,012,589 km2(April 6, 2019)
I think there is an error in your table of projections. In the last two lines (minimum and maximum) it doesn't take into account 2018 numbers.
Well spotted. Thanks
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Rodius on April 08, 2019, 02:04:15 PM
The last two days in nsidc.org has seen to very large drops of 0.087 and 0.097 respectively.
Are those numbers correct?

I know there is massive melt happening, but is it really that much?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 08, 2019, 02:58:41 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 7 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,037,345 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,037,345    km2      
-764,485    km2   <   2010's average.
-459,859    k   <   2018
-1,031,709    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -41    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -22    k   loss
Central Seas__    25    k   gain
Other Seas___   -44    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -15    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________    6    k   gain
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -37    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

Area loss 41 k, 19 k more than the 2010's average loss of 22 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 10 days in a row.
All the peripheral seas lose area, all the central Arctic seas gain area.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +4.5 today to around +1 over the next week to 10 days.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 08, 2019, 03:05:48 PM
The last two days in nsidc.org has seen to very large drops of 0.087 and 0.097 respectively.
Are those numbers correct?

I know there is massive melt happening, but is it really that much?
Yep - 5 day trailing average daily extent, which irons out off odd burps in the daily data, confirms it.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: FishOutofWater on April 08, 2019, 05:04:21 PM
The weather in the Okhotsk sea and Baffin Bay was exceptionally bad for sea ice. For weeks the ice in the Okhotsk was making the situation look better than it was because cold air outbreaks from Siberia persistently broke out over those waters in the winter and early spring. The spring warming there has caused the ice to melt rapidly, exposing the harsh reality on the Pacific side of the Arctic.

The drop in the Baffin bay was related to storms that brought strong warm easterly winds that drove ice away from the western shores of Greenland. This will have an impact in the coming weeks because these winds are strengthening the west Greenland current of warm salty Atlantic water into Baffin bay. In fact, the lack of an ice bridge in the Nares strait this winter has allowed a stronger than normal counter current of warm salty water to flow up the east side of the Nares strait at intermediate depths. Notice the salty water in the Nares at 100m in the map below.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic-bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr%2Fimg%2F-1%2Fpsy4qv3r1%2F20190407%2Farc%2FA%2Fpsy4qv3r1_20190407_arc_salinity_92m.png&hash=00df3201a4ffe680d3629e3e08a80a0f)

Expect a warmer and saltier Baffin bay this summer than last summer and an earlier melt out.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 08, 2019, 06:30:51 PM
Baffin Bay sea ice is already showing a fairly impressive area loss, some 2+ weeks ahead of average schedule.

A good chance the Okhotsk sea ice may well be more or less history before the end of the month.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: FishOutofWater on April 08, 2019, 08:03:55 PM
The ice extent in the Okhotsk has rapidly dropped because it was thin and dispersed so it was very vulnerable to warm air and storm waves. Continuous flow through the Nares strait, active convection in the Labrador sea and a strong transport of ice down the west side of Baffin bay makes the ice in Baffin bay vulnerable to rapid melt out this year, because it hasn't built up much
thickness.

One subtle feature in the Arctic 100m salinity map in my previous post is that the water at 100m on the NE coast of Greenland is fresher this year than last year the same date. That means that not only has there been stronger export of sea ice out of the Fram strait, but there's also increased export of fresh water that was once stored in the Beaufort gyre. Moreover, there's an increasing amount of Atlantic water that has flowed in along the Siberian shelf margin. That Atlantic water will increase the likelihood of an early melt out along the Siberian continental shelf this summer.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: bbr2314 on April 08, 2019, 08:08:56 PM
The ice extent in the Okhotsk has rapidly dropped because it was thin and dispersed so it was very vulnerable to warm air and storm waves. Continuous flow through the Nares strait, active convection in the Labrador sea and a strong transport of ice down the west side of Baffin bay makes the ice in Baffin bay vulnerable to rapid melt out this year, because it hasn't built up much
thickness.

One subtle feature in the Arctic 100m salinity map in my previous post is that the water at 100m on the NE coast of Greenland is fresher this year than last year the same date. That means that not only has there been stronger export of sea ice out of the Fram strait, but there's also increased export of fresh water that was once stored in the Beaufort gyre. Moreover, there's an increasing amount of Atlantic water that has flowed in along the Siberian shelf margin. That Atlantic water will increase the likelihood of an early melt out along the Siberian continental shelf this summer.
The temp anomalies across much of Eurasia but especially Siberia have been extreme this spring. Much worse than anything we saw in early 2018, and yet we still saw a very severe fire season last year. The ATL waters reaching the Siberian shelf will be met with plumes of black carbon from Siberia (accompanied by 30C+ heat waves into the Arctic proper). There are a multitude of factors that should combine this year for the earliest / most anomalous melt out of the Siberian Seas in the climate record (IMO).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 09, 2019, 05:47:01 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 8th, 2019:
     12,990,137 km2, an increase of 17,572 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: miki on April 09, 2019, 06:15:57 AM

April 8th, 2019:
     an increase of 17,572 km2.     

Is this due to a real small re-freeze, or is it just ice spread around by winds?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Wherestheice on April 09, 2019, 06:58:30 AM

April 8th, 2019:
     an increase of 17,572 km2.     

Is this due to a real small re-freeze, or is it just ice spread around by winds?

Probably most of it is spread. The ice is breathing, but slower
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Killian on April 09, 2019, 07:41:13 AM

It looks as if the line will continue downward in at least as steep an incline as the rest of the years which will make 2019 the record lowest extent!
...
I'm starting to take near term human extinction forecasts more seriously!

You'll come to see that the Arctic is out there to fool you. Noone in my experience can forecast, not even a single year but the next month either.

As for extinction, I don't believe in that. Humanity is quite versatile.

Generally true, but as a permaculture practitioner, and generally my entire life, I've a good sense of patterns. While the scientists still minimize or claim no relation between ENSO and ASI, I believe there is fairly significant one. Ergo, I was able to predict new lows, near new lows in ASI in the 2016-18 time frame due to the EN beginning in 2015.

Since then, I have seen some research showing warm air and moisture from the Pacific affects the ASI - which is exactly what my hypothesis was: EN's lead to a loading of heat into the Arctic, and it can take time, so within two years of an EN (no correlation with LN), there are typically new lows or near new lows.

We all know there were tons of daily (monthy?) records for extent, area over the last couple of years, particularly in the non-peak months, which I think we all assume has some effect on what I refer to as pre-conditioning.

From RealClimate, Aug, 2015:

Quote
Here is what I found going all the way back to the beginning of ASIE decline @ 1953-ish.

EN ’51 – ’54 = inception of ASI Extent decline.
EN ’57 – ’59 = Near New Low/New Low
EN ’65 – ’66 = Near New Low/New Low
EN ’68 – ’70 = New Low
EN ’72 – ’73 = possible correlation, some delay
EN ’76 – ’78 = New Low
EN ’79 – ’80 = New Low
EN ’82 – ’83 = New Low
EN ’86 – ’88 = New Low (’89,’90)
EN ’94 – ’95 = New Low
EN ’97 – ’98 = Drop from Previous (?)
EN ’04 – ’05 = Near New Low/New Low
EN ’04 – ’05/’06 – ’07 = New Low
EN ’09 – ’10 = New Low (’10, ’12)
EN ’15 – ’16 = New Low ’16,’17?...

...the hypothesis is more a 1 to 2 year lag, not only one. Looking at only one year wouldn’t find it...

Quote
Hopefully someone [a scientist] will look at it on the longer 2 year time frame added to the 1 year stuff already done, and update it.

I sent this stuff to Mark Serreze and he found it interesting, but said it wasn't his thing. Then this from last year:

Quote
...found that the strong global and Arctic changes depended on the magnitude of water vapor transfer from the mid-latitude oceans to the Arctic. When warm moist air is carried poleward towards the Arctic, it can lead to more low-lying clouds that act like a blanket, trapping warmth near the surface. The poleward movement of heat and moisture drive the Arctic's sea-ice retreat and low-cloud formation, amplifying Arctic warming.

The so-called ice-albedo feedback causes retreating ice and snow to lead to ever greater warming through increasing absorption of solar energy on darker surfaces.

If true for air and moisture, why not water flows, and over longer time periods, of course, and would EN's not enhance this effect?

Not the first time I've been ahead of the curve. I know eff all about the maths and the innards of the models and theories and details of what does what, which many of you do quite well, but I know patterns.

For your consideration.

Cheers
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 09, 2019, 08:41:46 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 12,990,137 km2(April 8, 2019)

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 10 days in a row.
- Extent gain on this day 18k, a difference of 45k from the average loss of 27 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,281k, 740 k (137%) greater than the average of 540k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 5.5% of the melting season done, with 158 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.65 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.47 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.155 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 10 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. It looks very much if this will continue for at least 2 weeks longer. Indeed, if daily extent loss continues at average 2019 will stay lowest to the end of the month. At that point 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent. 

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +4.2 today to around +1 over the next week. Will extent loss stall?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 09, 2019, 02:26:58 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,025,532 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,025,532    km2      
-753,292    km2   <   2010's average.
-437,524    k   <   2018
-1,015,347    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -12    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    4    k   gain
Central Seas__    32    k   gain
Other Seas___   -48    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________    9    k   gain
Laptev_______    5    k   gain
Chukchi______    6    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -37    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -8    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss

Area loss 12 k, 11 k less than the 2010's average loss of 23 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 11 days in a row.
The Okhotsk, St Lawrence and Hudson seas lose area, all the otherl Arctic seas gain area.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +4.2 today to around +1 over the next week to 10 days.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 09, 2019, 09:14:18 PM
Much excitement as for the last 10 days extent at a new low for the day. Perhaps a good time to be reminded that this is but a brief moment in the long satellite record.

The graph attached looks back 365 days for each day's average reading. You can see that the 2012 record low did not produce a record 365 day average record low, the reason being that before and after that 2012 record low, extent was quite high.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on April 09, 2019, 09:58:19 PM
This graph shows how outstanding 2016 was. Looking at the minima animation just posted by uniquorn (Reply#1) in the "ice edge at minimum poll" 2016 looked worst, although it was not at the lowest minimum ever.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: uniquorn on April 09, 2019, 11:46:05 PM
The graph attached looks back 365 days for each day's average reading.<>
I wonder what the NSIDC 365day area chart looks like overlaid onto that.....
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 10, 2019, 05:54:52 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 9th, 2019:
     13,005,909 km2, an increase of 15,772 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 10, 2019, 08:21:45 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT as at 09 Apr 2019:-  13,005,909 km2

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 11 days in a row.
- Extent gain on this day 16k, a difference of 47k from the average loss of 31 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,265k, 693 k (121%) greater than the average of 571k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 5.8% of the melting season done, with 157 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.7 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.52 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.106 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 11 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. It looks very much if this will continue for at least 2 weeks longer. Indeed, if daily extent loss resumes daily losses,  2019 will likely stay lowest to the end of the month. At that point 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent. 

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +3.5 today to around zero over the next week. Will extent loss continue to stall?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: FishOutofWater on April 10, 2019, 02:04:56 PM
There is going to continue to be anomalous heat in the Arctic in a week. The Atlantic side will be hard hit by warm air advection into the Arctic. There is a powerful blocking high over Scandinavia that is very persistent. It will advect large amounts of heat northwards from the Atlantic to the Arctic both in the atmosphere and by enhancing the flow of the Norwegian current.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 10, 2019, 02:58:50 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 9 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,021,747 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,021,747    km2      
-733,859    km2   <   2010's average.
-423,465    k   <   2018
-985,737    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -4    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    7    k   gain
Central Seas__    28    k   gain
Other Seas___   -39    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    4    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______    5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
         
Kara_________    10    k   gain
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______    6    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -29    k   loss

St Lawrence___   -9    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Area loss 4 k, 19 k less than the 2010's average loss of 23 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 12 days in a row.
The Okhotsk, St Lawrence / Baffin, and Hudson seas lose area, all the other Arctic seas gain area.(I think when warmth and southerly winds reach the Baffin, usually the St Lawrence gets clobbered on the way).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +3.5 today to around zero over the next week to 10 days. A sign of below average area losses for some time to come?

Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 11, 2019, 05:51:20 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 10th, 2019:
     13,014,792 km2, an increase of 8,883 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 11, 2019, 09:28:02 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 13,014,792 km2(April 10, 2019)

3 days of extent gains - not that unbusual for this time of year (see next post).

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 12 days in a row.
- Extent gain on this day 9k, a difference of 30k from the average loss of 21 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,256k, 664 k (112%) greater than the average of 592k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 6.0% of the melting season done, with 156 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.73 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.55 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.082 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 12 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. It looks very much if this will continue for at least 1 week longer. Indeed, if daily extent loss resumes daily losses,  2019 will likely stay lowest for 2 weeks longer. At that point 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent. 

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +3 today to around +1 over the next week. Will extent loss continue to stall?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 11, 2019, 09:30:07 AM
A look at daily change at this time of year in recent years, showing what is to me the surprising frequency of daily gains.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 11, 2019, 03:19:34 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,023,648 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,023,648    km2      
-709,141    km2   <   2010's average.
-409,291    k   <   2018
-947,606    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    2    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    10    k   gain
Central Seas__    20    k   gain
Other Seas___   -28    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    5    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -4    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    6    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________    8    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -21    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

Area GAIN 2 k, a variation of 25 k from the 2010's average loss of 23 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 13 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +3 today to around +1 over the next week to 10 days. A sign of below average area losses or even area gains for some time to come?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: FishOutofWater on April 11, 2019, 04:45:45 PM
A trend towards northerly winds in the Bering strait should stop the losses in the Beaufort, Chukchi and Bering seas for the next ten days or so. Some small increases are possible in the Bering sea.

The Atlantic side, however, will see continued blocking, forecast to intensify, over Scandinavia, which will intensify the flow of warm water and warm air from the Atlantic into the Barents and Kara seas over the next ten days. There will a see-saw, as there often is in the Arctic tipping towards ice loss on the Atlantic side and ice favorable conditions on the Pacific side over the next 10 days.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 12, 2019, 05:46:54 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 11th, 2019:
     12,989,958 km2, a drop of -24,834 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 12, 2019, 08:44:07 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  12,989,958 km2(April 11, 2019)

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 13 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 25k, 2  k less than the average loss of 27 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,281k, 661 k (107%) greater than the average of 620k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 6.3% of the melting season done, with 155 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.73 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.55 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.046 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 13 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. It looks very much if this will continue for about 1 week longer. If daily extent loss resumes average daily losses,  2019 will likely stay lowest for 2 weeks longer. At that point 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent. 

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +2 today to around +0 over the next week to 10 days.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 12, 2019, 02:11:26 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,040,541 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,040,541    km2      
-666,632    km2   <   2010's average.
-374,359    k   <   2018
-893,080    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    17    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    17    k   gain
Central Seas__    18    k   gain
Other Seas___   -18    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    5    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______    11    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________    10    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -15    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss

Area GAIN 17 k, a variation of 43 k from the 2010's average loss of 26 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 14 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +2 today to around +0 over the next week to 10 days. A sign of below average area losses or even area gains for some time to come?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: FishOutofWater on April 12, 2019, 03:13:13 PM
I would caution that the use of bulk averages for the arctic can be misleading. Average temperatures are reverting to the mean in both the GFS and ECMWF models but both models are doing it by establishing a powerful block over Scandinavia and deep cold low pressure over the Barents and Kara seas. This weather pattern will advect warm water into the Kara sea and will subsequently advect warm air over the Arctic from central Siberia. This pattern will increase the export of ice out of the Fram strait.

Of course, we shouldn't put much weight on forecasts over 5 days, but these blocking patterns have been going on for many months since early winter so we should be aware of the strong effects of blocking over Scandinavia and Alaska on sea ice.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: psymmo7 on April 12, 2019, 10:24:22 PM
The open water caused by ice fragmentation to the West of Barrow (Utqiaġvik)

is now clearly visible
http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/webcam-uaf-barrow-seaice-images/current/image
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 13, 2019, 05:56:03 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 12th, 2019:
     12,945,392 km2, a drop of -44,566 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 13, 2019, 09:49:07 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-12,945,392 km2(April 12, 2019)

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 14 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 45k, 16 k more than the average loss of 29 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,326k, 677 k (104%) greater than the average of 649k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 6.6% of the melting season done, with 154 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.71 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.53 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.079 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 14 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. It looks very much if this will continue for about 1 week longer. If daily extent loss has resumed average or more than average daily losses,  2019 will likely stay lowest for 2 weeks longer. At that point 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent. 

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +2.5 today to around +0.5 over the next week to 10 days.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 13, 2019, 02:17:39 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,055,660 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,055,660    km2      
-624,357    km2   <   2010's average.
-343,011    k   <   2018
-835,210    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    15    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    16    k   gain
Central Seas__    15    k   gain
Other Seas___   -16    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______    12    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
         
Kara_________    9    k   gain
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -13    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss

Area GAIN 15 k, a variation of 42 k from the 2010's average loss of 27 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 15 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +2.5 today to around +0.5 over the next week to 10 days. There appear to be no really extreme +ve temperature anomalies on the horizon.  A sign of below average area losses or even area gains for some time to come? Who knows.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 13, 2019, 03:15:36 PM
The recovery in sea ice area in the Chukchi, Kara and Laptev Seas is quite impressive.
For consistent gradual sea ice area loss one goes to Baffin Bay.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 14, 2019, 05:57:44 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 13th, 2019:
     12,933,264 km2, a drop of -12,128 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 14, 2019, 08:52:24 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,933,264 km2(April 13, 2019)

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 15 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 12k, 15 k less than the average loss of 27 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,338k, 662 k (98%) greater than the average of 676k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 6.8% of the melting season done, with 153 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.73 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.55 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.079 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 15 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. It looks very much if this will continue for about 1 week longer. If daily extent loss has resumed average or more than average daily losses,  2019 will likely stay lowest for 2 weeks longer. At that point 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent. 

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +2 today to around +1 over the next week to 10 days.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 14, 2019, 02:10:04 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,051,890 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,051,890    km2      
-594,935    km2   <   2010's average.
-329,848    k   <   2018
-794,722    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -4    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -2    k   loss
Central Seas__    10    k   gain
Other Seas___   -12    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______    7    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
         
Kara_________    9    k   gain
Laptev_______    5    k   gain
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -11    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

Area loss 4 k, a variation of 27 k from the 2010's average loss of 33 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 16 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually drift down from around +2 today to around +1 over the next week to 10 days. There appear to be no really extreme +ve temperature anomalies on the horizon, although southerly winds will be heading into the Barents for a few days.  A sign of below average area losses or even area gains for some time to come? Who knows.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 15, 2019, 06:06:37 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 14th, 2019:
     12,895,918 km2, a drop of -37,346 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 15, 2019, 11:29:30 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,895,918 km2(April 14, 2019)

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 16 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 37k, 7 k more than the average loss of 30 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,375k, 669 k (95%) greater than the average of 706k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 7.1% of the melting season done, with 152 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.72 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.54 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.158 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 15 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. It looks very much if this will continue for about 1 week longer. If daily extent loss has resumed average or more than average daily losses,  2019 will likely stay lowest for 2 weeks longer. At that point 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent. 

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +2 today to around +0.5 over the next week to 10 days. In the next 7 days a strong +ve anomaly comes from the mid-Atlantic heading north up into the Atlantic Front. Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average, while parts of the West and South of |Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 15, 2019, 02:29:46 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 14 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,036,627 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,036,627    km2      
-575,219    km2   <   2010's average.
-322,493    k   <   2018
-769,813    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -15    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -8    k   loss
Central Seas__    9    k   gain
Other Seas___   -16    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -11    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______    5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
         
Kara_________    8    k   gain
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -13    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

Area loss 15 k, 20 k less than the 2010's average loss of 35 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 17 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +2 today to around +0.5 over the next week to 10 days. In the next 7 days a strong, but not extreme, +ve anomaly comes from the mid-Atlantic heading north up into the Atlantic Front. Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average, while parts of the West and South of |Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 16, 2019, 05:53:37 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 15th, 2019:
     12,821,542 km2, a drop of -74,376 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

P.S. 2016-2019: The four lowest years on record (today). Even that is not a monthly average, it is a proof of the general weakness on the last four years.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Ktb on April 16, 2019, 07:53:43 AM
Bimonthly BOE evaluation.

March 31 extent was 13,375,281 km^2. Requiring average daily drops of -74,550 km^2 for a BOE to occur.

Extent loss has slowed considerably over the past 8-9 days, although it did pick back up today. Total extent loss in April thus far is -553,639 km^2. And total extent loss so far this season is -1,449,479 km^2. This has resulted in the current average daily drop of -42,632 km^2.

So far in the month of April, we have averaged a slower rate of -36,909 km^2 per day. If April ended today, this would be extremely middle of the pack (6th place out of 13 --- counting 2007 onward). Although, we have the entire latter half of the month remaining.

As of April 15th, extent was 12,821,642 km^2, and with on average 151 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -78,289 km^2.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Rodius on April 16, 2019, 08:34:34 AM
Bimonthly BOE evaluation.

March 31 extent was 13,375,281 km^2. Requiring average daily drops of -74,550 km^2 for a BOE to occur.

Extent loss has slowed considerably over the past 8-9 days, although it did pick back up today. Total extent loss in April thus far is -553,639 km^2. And total extent loss so far this season is -1,449,479 km^2. This has resulted in the current average daily drop of -42,632 km^2.

So far in the month of April, we have averaged a slower rate of -36,909 km^2 per day. If April ended today, this would be extremely middle of the pack (6th place out of 13 --- counting 2007 onward). Although, we have the entire latter half of the month remaining.

As of April 15th, extent was 12,821,642 km^2, and with on average 151 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -78,289 km^2.

These numbers are interesting, but without a comparison it is difficult to know what is significant.
For example, if I knew the average drop from now to minimum for 2012, at least it would help get my head around what is required.

So far, while a BOE is still unlikely this year, given an average melt from now on brings it close to 2012, then a decent, well timed storm in July or August could potentially do the job.

Anyway, is it possible to have 2012 average melt to minimum in the column to help with comparisons?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 16, 2019, 08:36:05 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,821,542 km2(April 15, 2019)

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 17 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 74k, 40 k more than the average loss of 34 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,450k, 710 k (96%) greater than the average of 740k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 7.5% of the melting season done, with 151 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.68 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.50 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.229 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 17 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. This will continue for 1 week longer as longer as extent loss is above zero. On 22nd April 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To remain lowest, 2019 will also have to maintain above average extent losses.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +1.5 today to around +0 over the next week to 10 days. For a few days more a strong +ve anomaly comes from the mid-Atlantic into the Atlantic Front. Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average, while parts of the West and South of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Gray-Wolf on April 16, 2019, 12:14:49 PM
As far as a B.O.E. is concerned do we not expect to see melt alter as we approach such an event?

By the time we are down to the last dregs they will no doubt be surrounded by warmed waters and all be of a similar remnant thickness?

I imagine the end coming very fast when it does?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 16, 2019, 02:36:57 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,019,748 km2
               
Total Area         
 12,019,748    km2      
-562,413    km2   <   2010's average.
-320,658    k   <   2018
-747,425    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -17    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -16    k   loss
Central Seas__    11    k   gain
Other Seas___   -12    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
Greenland____   -6    k   loss
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________    11    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -14    k   loss
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Area loss 17 k, 13 k less than the 2010's average loss of 30 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 18 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +1.5 today to around +0 over the next week to 10 days. For a few days more a strong +ve anomaly comes from the mid-Atlantic into the Atlantic Front. Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average, while parts of the West and South of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Ktb on April 16, 2019, 05:14:02 PM
These numbers are interesting, but without a comparison it is difficult to know what is significant.
For example, if I knew the average drop from now to minimum for 2012, at least it would help get my head around what is required.

So far, while a BOE is still unlikely this year, given an average melt from now on brings it close to 2012, then a decent, well timed storm in July or August could potentially do the job.

Anyway, is it possible to have 2012 average melt to minimum in the column to help with comparisons?

I have most of what you ask for ready to go, but was saving it for the April 30th update because I don't have mid-month values calculated. Other pieces I don't have made yet, but with the data I already have it would be easy to complete what you are requesting.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on April 16, 2019, 07:49:35 PM
I analysed the ice area of the individual seas from gerontocrat's actual table from April 1 to April 15. Only four seas, all of them in the periphery, show considerable losses (Okhotsk, St. Lawrence, Baffin and Bering). All other seas are constant or increase slightly. From this point of view the melting season has not really begun?!?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Ktb on April 16, 2019, 08:33:21 PM
From April 1 to 2012's minimum on September 16th, 2012 had an average daily loss of -67,033 km^2. In order to have been bumped from record low to record low with BOE, 2012 would have needed an additional loss of -12,885 km^2 per day for those 169 days (daily drop of -79,918 km^2).

In comparison, for a BOE to occur this year, 2019 required a drop of -74,550 km^2 from April 1 to the minimum (average Sept 13). Wowee, we were slightly ahead of 2012 as of April 1 --- but we started April 1.155 million km^2 higher lower than 2012, so this is to be expected.


Hindsight lets us look at attachment 2 and realize that 2018 is so low comparatively because of how late the minimum was (September 21), combined with the low starting extent of that year.

Attachment 1 is the actual daily average ice loss
Attachment 2 is what would have been necessary for the BOE
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: magnamentis on April 16, 2019, 08:55:43 PM
- as far as i can see we were starting lower and not higher than 2012

- it's totally normal that at this time of the year more or less (except some days with warm air
. intrusions) only the periphery is melting "significantly.

- melting season begins obviously always in the periphery and has begun once the maximum has
. been reached and the ice coverage is getting less as long as it remains below sea-ice maximum
. of ta given year.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Rodius on April 17, 2019, 12:45:17 AM
These numbers are interesting, but without a comparison it is difficult to know what is significant.
For example, if I knew the average drop from now to minimum for 2012, at least it would help get my head around what is required.

So far, while a BOE is still unlikely this year, given an average melt from now on brings it close to 2012, then a decent, well timed storm in July or August could potentially do the job.

Anyway, is it possible to have 2012 average melt to minimum in the column to help with comparisons?

I have most of what you ask for ready to go, but was saving it for the April 30th update because I don't have mid-month values calculated. Other pieces I don't have made yet, but with the data I already have it would be easy to complete what you are requesting.

Thank you.
It will make the numbers more meaningful for me and help me know when to start really, really stressing rather than just stressing
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 17, 2019, 05:57:38 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 16th, 2019:
     12,795,927 km2, a drop of -25,615 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 17, 2019, 09:17:23 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,795,927 km2(April 16, 2019)

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 18 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 26k, 8 k less than the average loss of 34 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,475k, 701 k (91%) greater than the average of 774k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 7.8% of the melting season done, with 150 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.69 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.51 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.270 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 18 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. This will continue for a few days longer as long as extent loss is above zero. On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To remain lowest, 2019 will also have to maintain above average extent losses.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +1.5 today to around +0 over the next week to 10 days. For a few days more a strong +ve anomaly is in the Atlantic Front. Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average, while parts of the West and South of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 17, 2019, 03:08:33 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 16 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,988,742 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,988,742    km2      
-563,488    km2   <   2010's average.
-333,003    k   <   2018
-737,847    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -31    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -22    k   loss
Central Seas__    1    k   gain
Other Seas___   -10    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -4    k   loss
Greenland____   -11    k   loss
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
         
Kara_________    8    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -16    k   loss
St Lawrence___    4    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain

Area loss 31 k, 1 k more than the 2010's average loss of 30 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 19 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +1.5 today to around +0 over the next week to 10 days. For a few days more a strong +ve anomaly is in the Atlantic Front. Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average, while parts of the West and South of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline?

ps: I have added 2016 to the Total Arctic Area graph as that is the year to watch for the next two months.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 17, 2019, 03:59:32 PM
Do you happen to know what time of day https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent updates (Eastern Time Zone)? Or is it whenever it gets around to it?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 17, 2019, 04:25:19 PM
Do you happen to know what time of day https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent updates (Eastern Time Zone)? Or is it whenever it gets around to it?
They say they update at around 3 a.m. GMT, 4 a.m. BST , which is, of course, 11 pm USA Eastern Daylight Time the day before. (That dateline twixt Japan and the USA has much to answer for.).
Often they are a bit late and stop Juan going to bed.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on April 17, 2019, 05:20:41 PM
Juan updates it right about when it updates at ADS/NIPR.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 17, 2019, 05:46:52 PM
<snip, on topic, please, and no unnecessary references to religious anecdotes; N.>
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 18, 2019, 06:09:31 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 17th, 2019:
     12,756,648 km2, a drop of -39,279 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

I am going to be traveling from April 18th to April 21st. I will try to post the ADS NIPR data, but I am not sure that I will have a good internet connection. Any delay, please anyone feel free to post the data.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: b_lumenkraft on April 18, 2019, 06:46:42 AM
I am going to be traveling

Have a very nice trip Juan. :)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Rod on April 18, 2019, 07:08:30 AM
Have a nice trip Juan!   I will miss seeing your daily reports!  I hope you are going on vacation and not just traveling for work.  Either way, have a good time. 
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 18, 2019, 10:19:19 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,756,648 km2(April 17, 2019)

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 19 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 39k, 4 k less than the average loss of 43 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,514k, 697 k (85%) greater than the average of 817k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 8.3% of the melting season done, with 149 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.69 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.51 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.270 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 19 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. This will continue for a few days longer as long as extent loss is above zero. On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To remain lowest, 2019 will also have to maintain above average extent losses.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +1.5 today to around +0 over the next week to 10 days. For a few days more a strong, but not extreme, +ve anomaly is in the Atlantic Front. Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average, while parts of the West and South of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 18, 2019, 02:10:53 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 17 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,945,460 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,945,460    km2      
-575,432    km2   <   2010's average.
-337,572    k   <   2018
-742,731    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -43    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -26    k   loss
Central Seas__    0    k   gain
Other Seas___   -17    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____   -15    k   loss
Barents ______   -14    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
         
Kara_________    6    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -18    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss

Area loss 43 k, 12 k more than the 2010's average loss of 31 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 20 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +1.5 today to around +0 over the next week to 10 days. For a few days more a strong, but not extreme, +ve anomaly is in the Atlantic Front. This is already apparent in strong area loss in the Barents and Greenland Seas in the last 2 days.

Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average (as is area loss), while parts of the West and South of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline?

ps: I have added 2016 to the Total Arctic Area graph as that is the year to watch for the next two months.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: wdmn on April 19, 2019, 06:26:07 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 18th, 2019:
     12,693,470 km2, a drop of -63,178 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.

Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: b_lumenkraft on April 19, 2019, 06:33:31 AM
Thanks for taking it wdmn! :)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: wdmn on April 19, 2019, 06:38:23 AM
A scanty substitute, but nourishment nevertheless.  ;)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 19, 2019, 08:58:16 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,693,470 km2(April 18, 2019)

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 20 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 63k, 24 k more than the average loss of 39 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,578k, 721 k (84%) greater than the average of 857k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 8.7% of the melting season done, with 148 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.67 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.49 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.271 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 20 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. This will continue for 8 days longer as long as extent loss is above zero. Modest declines would keep 2019 at lowest at least until the end of the month.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To remain lowest, 2019 will also have to maintain above average extent losses in May and June.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +1.5 and  +0 over the next week to 10 days. For a few days more a strong, but not extreme, +ve anomaly is in the Atlantic Front. Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average, while parts of the West and South of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on April 19, 2019, 09:17:03 AM
Here comes into view the incredible 2016 early cliff, dropping 2.5M km2 over the span of 6 weeks (Apr 18th - May 30th) despite its low starting point. I really hope 2019 doesn't repeat that performance.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 19, 2019, 03:30:43 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,900,731 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,900,731    km2      
-592,983    km2   <   2010's average.
-346,278    k   <   2018
-754,510    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -45    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -21    k   loss
Central Seas__   -2    k   loss
Other Seas___   -22    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    7    k   gain
Greenland____   -15    k   loss
Barents ______   -15    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -17    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss

Area loss 45 k, 18 k more than the 2010's average loss of 27 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 21 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +1.5 and  +0 over the next week to 10 days. For a few days more a strong, but not extreme, +ve anomaly is in the Atlantic Front. This is already apparent in strong area loss in the Barents and Greenland Seas in the last 3 days.

Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average (as is area loss), while parts of the West and South of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline?

ps: I have added 2016 to the Total Arctic Area graph as that is the year to watch for the next two months.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: wdmn on April 20, 2019, 05:43:46 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 19th, 2019:
     12,652,423 km2, a drop of -41,047 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 20, 2019, 06:26:59 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,652,423 km2(April 19, 2019)

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 21 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 41k, 11 k more than the average loss of 30 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,619k, 732 k (83%) greater than the average of 887k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 9.0% of the melting season done, with 147 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.66 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.48 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.336 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 21 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. This will continue for 5 days longer as long as extent loss is above zero. Modest declines would keep 2019 at lowest until the end of the month.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To remain lowest, 2019 will also have to maintain above average extent losses in May and June.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +2.5 and  +0.5 over the next week to 10 days. At various times will be strong, but not extreme, +ve anomaly in the Atlantic Front. Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average, while parts of the West and South of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline to continue?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 20, 2019, 12:46:15 PM
Here comes into view the incredible 2016 early cliff, dropping 2.5M km2 over the span of 6 weeks (Apr 18th - May 30th) despite its low starting point. I really hope 2019 doesn't repeat that performance.

What causes such cliffs? Is it warm air masses, or something else? Could we see such a cliff coming in advance?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Sterks on April 20, 2019, 01:28:35 PM
Here comes into view the incredible 2016 early cliff, dropping 2.5M km2 over the span of 6 weeks (Apr 18th - May 30th) despite its low starting point. I really hope 2019 doesn't repeat that performance.

What causes such cliffs? Is it warm air masses, or something else? Could we see such a cliff coming in advance?
In 2016 the open water due to wind drift in Beaufort reached a unprecedented extent during May. And iirc Barents melted  soon that year.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Shared Humanity on April 20, 2019, 01:59:06 PM
Curious as to what causes the gentle slope upward in May for average extent losses. Is this because the peripheral seas have melted out and it takes a while for the central arctic ice to kick in?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 20, 2019, 02:33:46 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,853,501 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,853,501    km2      
-1,126,424    km2   <   2010's average.
-606,676    k   <   2018
-1,486,553    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -47    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -18    k   loss
Central Seas__   -11    k   loss
Other Seas___   -18    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
Greenland____   -14    k   loss
Barents ______   -17    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -5    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -9    k   loss
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -17    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

Area loss 47 k, 16 k more than the 2010's average loss of 31 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 22 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +2.5 and  +0.5 over the next week to 10 days. At various times will be strong, but not extreme, +ve anomaly in the Atlantic Front. This is already apparent in strong area loss in the Barents and Greenland Seas in the last 4 days.

Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average (as is area loss), while parts of the West and South of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline?
________________________________________________________________
ps: I have added 2016 to the Total Arctic Area graph as that is the year to watch for the next two months.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Sterks on April 20, 2019, 03:05:43 PM
Curious as to what causes the gentle slope upward in May for average extent losses. Is this because the peripheral seas have melted out and it takes a while for the central arctic ice to kick in?
I agree with that, the Arctic proper is well confined and takes a time for the perimeter of ice to start shrinking after most of outer seas have already melted out, or in their way.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Sterks on April 20, 2019, 03:06:59 PM
2016 early opening was an outlier
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: magnamentis on April 20, 2019, 06:34:32 PM
Curious as to what causes the gentle slope upward in May for average extent losses. Is this because the peripheral seas have melted out and it takes a while for the central arctic ice to kick in?

most probably exactly what you assume, at least i think so too ;)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Niall Dollard on April 21, 2019, 12:12:44 AM

In 2016 the open water due to wind drift in Beaufort reached a unprecedented extent during May. And iirc Barents melted  soon that year.

+ Look at the NH snow cover extent anomalies from February to June 2016. Low albedo.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 21, 2019, 06:17:06 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,603,699 km2(April 20, 2019)

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 22 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 49k, 16 k more than the average loss of 33 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,667k, 747 k (82%) greater than the average of 920k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 9.3% of the melting season done, with 146 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.64 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.46 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.328 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 22 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. This will continue for 5 days longer as long as extent loss is above zero. Average declines would keep 2019 at lowest until the end of the month.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To remain lowest, 2019 will also have to maintain above average extent losses in May and June.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from around Zero and  +2.5 over the next week to 10 days. The current strong, but not extreme, +ve anomaly in the Atlantic Front will wane. Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea, the Pacific half of the CAB and Baffin Bay look to be above average, while parts of the Western and Southern parts of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline to continue?
[/quote]
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 21, 2019, 02:26:11 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 20 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,806,364 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,806,364    km2      
-575,244    km2   <   2010's average.
-308,623    k   <   2018
-744,207    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -47    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -8    k   loss
Central Seas__   -11    k   loss
Other Seas___   -28    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    3    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    12    k   gain
Greenland____   -6    k   loss
Barents ______   -17    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -9    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -15    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -12    k   loss

Area loss 47 k, 11 k more than the 2010's average loss of 36 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 23 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from around Zero and  +2.5 over the next week to 10 days. The current strong, but not extreme, +ve anomaly in the Atlantic Front will wane. This is already apparent in strong area loss in the Barents and Greenland Seas in the last 5 days.

Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea, the Pacific half of the CAB  looks to be above average, while parts of the Western and Southern parts of Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline to continue?

Worthy of note is that on this day Arctic Sea Ice Area is 0.575 million km2 less than the 2010's average for this date. An area twice the size of the UK of open water, as opposed to ice covered this early in the melting season, must have some effect on the weather and ocean warming and currents.
________________________________________________________________
ps: I have added 2016 to the Total Arctic Area graph as that is the obvious year to watch to compare with 2019 for the next two months.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Ktb on April 21, 2019, 06:36:51 PM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 20th, 2019:
     12,603,699 km2, a drop of -48,724 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 22, 2019, 05:58:10 AM
Thank you wdmn, Ktb and of course, Gerontocrat, for taking care of posting the data while I was traveling!  :)
 
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 21th, 2019:
     12,594,669 km2, a small drop of -9,030 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 22, 2019, 06:28:26 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

Will 2019 stay as the lowest on record for the whole April?
Or will 2016 become the lowest on record on the following days?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 22, 2019, 07:41:43 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,594,669 km2(April 21, 2019)

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 23 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 9k, 13 k less than the average loss of 22 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,676k, 734 k (78%) greater than the average of 943k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 9.5% of the melting season done, with 145 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.66 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.48 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.320 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 23 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. This will continue for 4 days longer as long as extent loss is above zero. Average declines would keep 2019 at lowest until at least the end of the month. However, on 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To remain lowest, 2019 will also have to maintain above average extent losses in May and June.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from around Zero and  +2.5 over the next week to 10 days. The current +ve anomaly in the Atlantic Front is waning. Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea, the Pacific half of the CAB and Baffin Bay look to be above average, while parts of the Western and Southern parts of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline to continue, or below average extent loss to set in?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 22, 2019, 04:28:44 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 21 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,770,327 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,770,327    km2      
-578,080    km2   <   2010's average.
-322,497    k   <   2018
-751,242    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -36    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    0    k   gain
Central Seas__   -3    k   loss
Other Seas___   -34    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    3    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
Greenland____   -6    k   loss
Barents ______   -8    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -15    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -16    k   loss

Area loss 36 k, 1 k less than the 2010's average loss of 37 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 24 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will range from around Zero and  +2.5 over the next week to 10 days. The current +ve anomaly in the Atlantic Front is waning.  This is already apparent in the reduction in strong area loss in the Barents and Greenland Seas.

Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea, the Pacific half of the CAB  looks to be above average, while parts of the Western and Southern parts of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time, already apparent in area loss in the last 2 days. It looks as if Baffin Bay and the south of the Greenland Sea may become warmer after a few days more of cold. (Watch out for a  Greenland melt before the end of the month?)

Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline to continue?

________________________________________________________________
ps: I have added 2016 to the Total Arctic Area graph as that is the obvious year to watch to compare with 2019 for the next two months.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 23, 2019, 06:01:22 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 22nd, 2019:
     12,586,843 km2, a small drop of -7,826 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 23, 2019, 08:37:09 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,586,843 km2(April 22, 2019)

Extent loss has basically stalled in  the last 2 days.

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 24 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 8k, 31 k less than the average loss of 39 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,684k, 703 k (72%) greater than the average of 982k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 9.9% of the melting season done, with 144 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.69 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.51 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.263 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 24 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. This will continue for 3 days longer as long as extent loss is above zero. Average declines would keep 2019 at lowest until at least the end of the month. However, on 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To remain lowest, 2019 will also have to maintain above average extent losses in May and June.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually increase from around +1 to well over +3 degrees over the next week to 10 days. There will be strong +ve anomalies over most parts of the Arctic at various times. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline to continue, or below average extent loss to set in?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Viggy on April 23, 2019, 11:41:36 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

Will 2019 stay as the lowest on record for the whole April?
Or will 2016 become the lowest on record on the following days?

If the GFS/Euro forecasts hold for the next 8 days, that extreme heat event is going to kill almost all Okhotsk and Bering sea ice. That's 400,000 km2 by itself, which would have us atleast 100k lower than 2016.

I say 2019 holds easy to the end of April. Worse case, we add to the lead over 2016.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 23, 2019, 03:39:22 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 22 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,739,903 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,739,903    km2      
-573,354    km2   <   2010's average.
-328,890    k   <   2018
-752,764    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -30    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas__   -12    k   loss
Other Seas___   -24    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    4    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -12    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -11    k   loss

Area loss 30 k, 8 k less than the 2010's average loss of 38 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 25 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually increase from around +1 to well over +3 degrees over the next week to 10 days. There will be strong +ve anomalies over most parts of the Arctic at various times.
Total area is closing in on 2016. As the area data is a 5 day trailing average, even if a major blast of warmth hits the Pacific Gateway in the next few days, it is likely that 2019 area data will blip up to more than 2016 in the next few days before stronger ice loss kicks in.

To remember is that on average melt to date is just under 10% of the total for the season. Caveat the Perils of Projections.

________________________________________________________________
ps: I have added 2016 to the Total Arctic Area graph as that is the obvious year to watch to compare with 2019 for the next two months.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 24, 2019, 05:48:05 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 23nd, 2019:
     12,614,573 km2, an increase of 27,730 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 24, 2019, 11:00:37 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,586,843 km2(April 22, 2019)

Extent loss has switched to gain after basically stalling in the 2 days before. Not that unusual (see next post).

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 25 days in a row.
- Extent gain on this day 28k, a difference of 84 k from the average loss of 56 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,657k, 620 k (60%) greater than the average of 1037k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 10.5% of the melting season done, with 143 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.77 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.59 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.120 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 25 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. This will continue for just one day longer as long as extent loss is above zero. However, on 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To remain lowest, 2019 will also have to maintain above average extent losses from now until June.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually increase from around +1 to well over +3 degrees over the next week to 10 days. There will be strong +ve anomalies over most parts of the Arctic at various times, including above zero temperatures from Monday in well into the Chukchi Sea. Sea ice decline to accelerate over the 10 day period?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 24, 2019, 11:24:23 AM
Attached is an extract from a table of daily changes in JAXA sea ice extent in recent years at this time of year. It shows occasional daily extent gains are not unknown at this time of year, though a gain of 28k is unusual.

From what I have read this gain is probably due mostly to ice movement. As ice gets thinner over the years it is much more mobile?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: DavidR on April 24, 2019, 03:13:55 PM
According to NSIDC both Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice extent are at record low levels today.
I wonder how long it is since this last occurred
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 24, 2019, 03:18:17 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 23 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,707,041 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,707,041    km2      
-570,385    km2   <   2010's average.
-325,472    k   <   2018
-759,581    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -33    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    7    k   gain
Central Seas__   -23    k   loss
Other Seas___   -16    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    4    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -10    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -7    k   loss

Area loss 33 k, 5 k less than the 2010's average loss of 38 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 26 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually increase from around +1 to well over +3 degrees over the next week to 10 days. There will be strong +ve anomalies over most parts of the Arctic at various times, including above zero temperatures from Monday well into the Chukchi Sea and possibly the CAB .

But at the moment total area is closing in on 2016 that was in strong decline at this time. As the area data is a 5 day trailing average, even if a major blast of warmth hits the Pacific Gateway in a few days time, it is likely that 2019 area data will blip up to more than 2016 in the next few days before stronger ice loss kicks in.

To remember is that on average melt to date is just under 10% of the total for the season. Caveat the Perils of Projections.

________________________________________________________________
ps: I have added 2016 to the Total Arctic Area graph as that is the obvious year to watch to compare with 2019 for the next two months.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: etienne on April 24, 2019, 06:06:32 PM
According to NSIDC both Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice extent are at record low levels today.
I wonder how long it is since this last occurred

On vishop https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
on the right side, there is a possibility to check global values. There it is easy to see when the summ of both is at the lowest.Nov 2016 to Oct. 2017 had most of the time the lowest summ, 2018 was often close to that value. But your question is about both separately at the lowest. Daily data for Arctic can be downloaded lower on the page of the link, but I didn't search yet for Antartic data.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: DavidR on April 24, 2019, 11:42:42 PM
According to NSIDC both Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice extent are at record low levels today.
I wonder how long it is since this last occurred

On vishop https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
on the right side, there is a possibility to check global values. There it is easy to see when the summ of both is at the lowest.Nov 2016 to Oct. 2017 had most of the time the lowest summ, 2018 was often close to that value. But your question is about both separately at the lowest. Daily data for Arctic can be downloaded lower on the page of the link, but I didn't search yet for Antartic data.
This happened quite a bit over the last three years, 12 times last year and over 60 times in 2016 and 2017.  It  only occurred once in the 9 years prior to that. Surprisingly not once in 2007 or 2012. This has more to do with Antarctic levels plummeting in the past 4 years than changes in the Arctic.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: magnamentis on April 25, 2019, 03:10:08 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,586,843 km2(April 22, 2019)

Extent loss has switched to gain after basically stalling in the 2 days before.

while this is a matter of fact and had to be seen coming, i think this will turn around withing a few day, considering  all kinds of forecasts i could find, especially chucki and berings, as well as okhotsk will vanish quickly within a very short time to come ando those will count.

we shall probably see 1 or 2 century drops very soon, let's wait and see.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: interstitial on April 25, 2019, 04:12:04 AM
Area shrank so this is just ice spreading out.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 25, 2019, 06:22:25 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 24th, 2019:
     12,622,457 km2, an increase of 7,884 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).


PS. I was able to access the data, but when I try to make a copy of the graph, it send me to twitter.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 25, 2019, 07:47:58 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 24th, 2019:
     12,622,457 km2, an increase of 7,884 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).


PS. I was able to access the data, but when I try to make a copy of the graph, it send me to twitter.

Can't access JAXA at all now.
Can the data Juan accessed be trusted if JAXA having problems?

Looks like NSIDC only for me.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Pmt111500 on April 25, 2019, 08:25:22 AM
i'd be happy with only weekly posts, since nothing much can be said wrt other years on shorter periods. Of course weather people would want as detailed as possible. Jaxa has always had periods of non-activity. Wouldn't worry about it unless it's over week with no explanation. I'm pretty certain malevolent governments or other actors have secret sections trying to suppress or alter the data at the source, so the intercomparison between the two main ones done here is interesting.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: b_lumenkraft on April 25, 2019, 09:43:51 AM
Good to know Trump is aware. I'm sure he will use this knowledge for the good.

Too sad the media doesn't care that we are in record-breaking territory sea ice wise.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: jplotinus on April 25, 2019, 02:23:09 PM
For the last several days on JAXA, they’ve had a pop-up as follows. The new version does not have the same easy to use format and graph, as nearly as I can tell.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 25, 2019, 02:36:27 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 24 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,671,222 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,671,222    km2      
-568,891    km2   <   2010's average.
-346,990    k   <   2018
-767,558    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -36    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas__   -25    k   loss
Other Seas___   -17    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    3    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -4    k   loss
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______    2    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -11    k   loss
Laptev_______   -5    k   loss
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -12    k   loss

Area loss 36 k, 4 k less than the 2010's average loss of 40 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 27 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually increase from around +1 to about +4.5 degrees over the next week to 10 days. There will be strong +ve anomalies over most parts of the Arctic at various times, including above zero temperatures from Monday well into the Chukchi Sea and possibly the CAB, and similar above freezing temperatures at various times in Baffin Bay and the South-East coast of Greenland.

But at the moment total area is closing in on 2016 that was in strong decline at this time. As the area data is a 5 day trailing average, even if a major blast of warmth hits the Pacific Gateway and elsewhere in a few days time, it is likely that 2019 area data will blip up to more than 2016 in the next few days before stronger ice loss kicks in.

To remember is that on average melt to date is just under 10% of the total for the season. Caveat the Perils of Projections for the next week, let alone the end result in September.

________________________________________________________________
ps: I have added 2016 to the Total Arctic Area graph as that is the obvious year to watch to compare with 2019 for the next two months.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 25, 2019, 04:50:39 PM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 24th, 2019:
     12,622,457 km2, an increase of 7,884 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

It is working fine now.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 26, 2019, 06:10:13 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 25th, 2019:
     12,626,405 km2, a small increase of 3,948 km2.
     2019 is now second lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 26, 2019, 08:05:34 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,626,405 km2(April 25, 2019)

3 days of extent gains totaling nearly 40k this late in the melting season is unique in the JAXA extent record this century at least.

- Extent is now 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 31k greater than 2016.
- Extent gain on this day 4k, a difference of 68 k from the average loss of 64 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,645k, 496 k (43%) greater than the average of 1,148k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 11.6% of the melting season done, with 141 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.89 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.72 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.120 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at ,least June.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually increase from around +2 to well over +4 degrees over the next week to 10 days. There will be strong +ve anomalies over most parts of the Arctic at various times, including above zero temperatures from Monday extending well into the Chukchi Sea and beyond. Baffin Bay will also experience above zero temperatures. Sea ice decline to accelerate over the 10 day period after this hiatus?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 26, 2019, 02:47:31 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 25 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,642,306 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,642,306    km2      
-549,327    km2   <   2010's average.
-362,434    k   <   2018
-762,367    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -29    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    7    k   gain
Central Seas__   -24    k   loss
Other Seas___   -12    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    6    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______    7    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -5    k   loss
Central Arctic_    5    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______   -6    k   loss
Chukchi______   -5    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -8    k   loss

Area loss 29 k, 10 k less than the 2010's average loss of 39 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 28 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually increase from around +2 to well over +4 degrees over the next week to 10 days. There will be strong +ve anomalies over most parts of the Arctic at various times, including above zero temperatures from Monday extending well into the Chukchi Sea and beyond. Baffin Bay will also experience above zero temperatures.

But at the moment total area is closing in on 2016 that was in strong decline at this time. As the area data is a 5 day trailing average, even if a major blast of warmth hits the Pacific Gateway and elsewhere in a few days time, it is likely that 2019 area data will blip up to more than 2016 in the next few days before stronger ice loss kicks in. Even then 2016 may stay lowest for some time to come.

To remember is that on average melt to date is around 10% of the total for the season. Caveat the Perils of Projections for the next week, let alone the end result in September.

________________________________________________________________
ps: I have added 2016 to the Total Arctic Area graph as that is the obvious year to watch to compare with 2019 for the next two months.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 27, 2019, 06:02:40 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 26th, 2019:
     12,608,257 km2, a drop of -18,148 km2.
     2019 is now second lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 27, 2019, 11:57:17 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,608,257 km2(April 26, 2019)

After 3 days of extent gains totaling nearly 40k extent is starting to drop again.

- Extent is now 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 38k greater than 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 18k,  46 k less than the average loss of 64 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,663k, 450 k (37%) greater than the average of 1,213k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 12.3% of the melting season done, with 140 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.94 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.76 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 829 k km2 GREATER THAN 2019. 2012 data already starting to play catch-up

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June.

Other Stuff


My computer cannot reach https://climatereanalyzer.org/ today. Weird.
So no info on temperatures.

Their problem or mine?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on April 27, 2019, 12:51:08 PM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,608,257 km2(April 26, 2019)
...

My computer cannot reach https://climatereanalyzer.org/ today. Weird.
So no info on temperatures.

Their problem or mine?
I think it is their problem. It doesn't work here either.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 27, 2019, 03:15:52 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 26 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,623,175 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,623,175    km2      
-512,598    km2   <   2010's average.
-364,263    k   <   2018
-741,947    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -19    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    3    k   gain
Central Seas__   -17    k   loss
Other Seas___   -5    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______    7    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain

Area loss 19 k, 25 k less than the 2010's average loss of 44 k on this day.
Total area now 2nd lowest after being lowest for 28 days in a row.

Other Stuff

No GFs data as https://climatereanalyzer.org/ refuses to connect.

2016 is likely to stay lowest for some time to come as it was in very strong area decline at this time.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 28, 2019, 05:42:54 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 27th, 2019:
     12,563,633 km2, a drop of -44,624 km2.
     2019 is second lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Altai on April 28, 2019, 07:26:34 AM
According to Karstenhaustein.com GFS expects the positive anomaly in the Arctic ocean to increase from around +2 to 4 for the next week.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 28, 2019, 11:27:47 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,563,633 km2(April 27, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 65k greater than 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 45k, 0 k more than the average loss of 45 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,707k, 450 k (36%) greater than the average of 1,257k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 12.7% of the melting season done, with 139 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.94 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.76 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  increase from around +2 to well over +4 degrees over the next week to 10 days. The strongest and most persistent +ve anomalies will be in a broad band over the Pacific half of the CAB, the CAA, Baffin Bay and Greenland. The Okhotsk and Bering Seas should be warm enough to completely melt out over the next week to 10 days.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 28, 2019, 02:59:13 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 27 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,615,112 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,615,112    km2      
-463,134    km2   <   2010's average.
-354,818    k   <   2018
-704,536    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -8    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -4    k   loss
Central Seas__   -2    k   loss
Other Seas___   -2    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -7    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____   -8    k   loss
Barents ______    11    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________    6    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -10    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -7    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Area loss 8 k, 34 k less than the 2010's average loss of 42 k on this day.
Total area now 2nd lowest after being lowest for 28 days in a row until 2 days ago.

Temperatures
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  increase from around +2 to well over +4 degrees over the next week to 10 days. The strongest and most persistent +ve anomalies will be in a broad band over the Pacific half of the CAB, the CAA, Baffin Bay and Greenland. The Okhotsk and Bering Seas should be warm enough to completely melt out over the next week to 10 days.
Other Stuff
The warmth coming in from the Pacific is already affecting area loss in the Bering and Chukchi Seas. NSIDC Daily Extent still lowest and reducing fast again. See next post.

2016 area is still likely to stay lowest for some time to come as it was in very strong area decline at this time.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 28, 2019, 03:38:22 PM
Total sea ice extent (5 day trailing average) still lowest,

Bering and Chukchi (especially) losing sea ice area.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 29, 2019, 05:49:16 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 28th, 2019:
     12,451,876 km2, a century drop of -111,757 km2.
     (3rd. 2019 century drop)
     2019 is second lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 29, 2019, 12:22:34 PM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,451,876 km2(April 28, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 38k greater than 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 112k, 68 k more than the average loss of 44 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,819 k, 517 k (40%) greater than the average of 1,302k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 13.2% of the melting season done, with 138 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.89 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.71 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  vary from around +2.5 to just under +4 degrees over the next week to 10 days. The strongest and most persistent +ve anomalies will be in a broad band over the Pacific half of the CAB, the CAA, Baffin Bay and Greenland. The Okhotsk and Bering Seas should be warm enough to completely melt out over the next week to 10 days.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 29, 2019, 02:58:01 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 28 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,599,356 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,599,356    km2      
-424,619    km2   <   2010's average.
-357,709    k   <   2018
-673,565    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -16    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -8    k   loss
Central Seas__   -0    k   loss
Other Seas___   -7    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -8    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain
Greenland____   -10    k   loss
Barents ______    9    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________    9    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -11    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain
Area loss 16 k, 30 k less than the 2010's average loss of 46 k on this day.
Total area now 2nd lowest after being lowest for 28 days in a row until 3 days ago.

Temperatures
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  vary from around +2.5 to just under +4 degrees over the next week to 10 days. The strongest and most persistent +ve anomalies will be in a broad band over the Pacific half of the CAB, the CAA, Baffin Bay and Greenland. The Okhotsk and Bering Seas should be warm enough to completely melt out over the next week to 10 days.

Other Stuff
The warmth coming in from the Pacific is already affecting area loss in the Bering and Chukchi Seas. Area sea ice loss should accelerate from now.

2016 area is still likely to stay lowest for some time to come as it was in very strong area decline at this time.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: be cause on April 29, 2019, 06:44:29 PM
looking at the NSIDC area graph it seems that over the next 6 weeks 2016 actually fell in line with the 2010's average .. remaining the same distance ahead for the duration .. my guess is that 2019 will soon be challenging for the lead again .. b.c.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on April 29, 2019, 07:29:13 PM
Losses between Apr 28 and June 03 (from JAXA):
2016: 2.06 M km²
10s: 1.89 M km²
00s: 1.70 M km²
90s: 1.60 M km²
So 2016 was a bit higher than all the averages, but of course 2019 can easily "beat" 2016 even within a few days due to the massive intrusion of warm air through Bering Strait and the movement of ice off the coast of NE Siberia and off the NW coast of Alaska... (see also Aluminium's latest animation in the 2019 melting season thread)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 30, 2019, 05:47:50 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 29th, 2019:
     12,359,667 km2, a drop of -92,209 km2.
     2019 is second lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).


P.S. The five lowest years on April 29th: 2015-2019
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Alison on April 30, 2019, 06:05:38 AM
200k+ in two days...
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: kiwichick16 on April 30, 2019, 06:54:53 AM
2016 ice melt  28th April -  3rd June = 2.06 million sq kms

divided by 36 days = 57,222 sq kms per day   .....unless I stuffed up the maths
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 30, 2019, 11:21:22 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,359,667 km2(April 29, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 12 k greater than 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 92k, 43 k more than the average loss of 49 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,911 k, 560 k (41%) greater than the average of 1,351k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 13.7% of the melting season done, with 137 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.83 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.65 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June.

Other Stuff

https://climatereanalyzer.org/ not responding again - so here is yesterday's analysis -
Quote
[/b]GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  vary from around +2.5 to just under +4 degrees over the next week to 10 days. The strongest and most persistent +ve anomalies will be in a broad band over the Pacific half of the CAB, the CAA, Baffin Bay and Greenland. The Okhotsk and Bering Seas should be warm enough to completely melt out over the next week to 10 days.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 30, 2019, 02:24:24 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 29 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,567,983 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,567,983    km2      
-403,651    km2   <   2010's average.
-361,624    k   <   2018
-659,256    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -31    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -18    k   loss
Central Seas__   -4    k   loss
Other Seas___   -9    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -9    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
Greenland____   -11    k   loss
Barents ______    5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
         
Kara_________    8    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______   -15    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Area loss 31 k, 16 k less than the 2010's average loss of 47 k on this day.
Total area now 2nd lowest after being lowest for 28 days in a row until 3 days ago.

Temperatures
https://climatereanalyzer.org/ still will not speak to me. Here is yesterday's summary
Quote
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  vary from around +2.5 to just under +4 degrees over the next week to 10 days. The strongest and most persistent +ve anomalies will be in a broad band over the Pacific half of the CAB, the CAA, Baffin Bay and Greenland. The Okhotsk and Bering Seas should be warm enough to completely melt out over the next week to 10 days.

Other Stuff
The warmth coming in from the Pacific is already affecting area loss in the Bering and Chukchi Seas. Area sea ice loss should accelerate from now.

2016 area is still likely to stay lowest for some time to come as it was in very strong area decline at this time.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tor Bejnar on April 30, 2019, 05:05:23 PM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,359,667 km2(April 29, 2019)
...
Including 2016 [2015-16] in the "JAXA ARCTIC Extent Gain (+) Loss (-) in Km2" chart would give a feel for the horse race these next two months.  [2018 is so 'last year'  :P ::) 8) :o ;D]
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 01, 2019, 05:43:12 AM
ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA) is just a little late, but what I found on "Time and date" is hard to swallow.
I will keep looking for the data, but not too much hope.

Quote
Emperor Akihito of Japan abdicated on 30 April 2019,[1] the first Japanese Emperor to do so since 1817. This marked the end of the Heisei era and the inception of the Reiwa era, and will precipitate numerous festivities leading up to the accession of his successor, Emperor Naruhito.[2] The enthronement ceremony will likely happen on 22 October 2019.[3] Akihito's younger son, Prince Akishino, is his brother's heir presumptive.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Japanese_imperial_transition (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Japanese_imperial_transition)

Holidays in Japan - 2019:
https://www.timeanddate.com/holidays/japan/ (https://www.timeanddate.com/holidays/japan/)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: charles_oil on May 01, 2019, 08:37:22 AM
I thought we do well for holidays here in France - but that looks amazing!    Its 1st May and so its our giant charity book sale and spring bazaar today here so no holiday for me.   :)     Sorry for the OT post !
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on May 01, 2019, 09:37:49 AM
Holidays in Japan - 2019:
It's Japan's "Golden Week", but this year two more days were added because of the abdication. Last year data was absent through these holidays, so there is a good chance that we will have to wait nearly a whole week for the official data.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Neven on May 01, 2019, 10:08:42 AM
Can someone explain to me why automated products need a holiday?  ;D
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: pauldry600 on May 01, 2019, 10:48:37 AM
In that case we will have to guess extent drop to amuse ourselves.

Looking at Uni Bremen graph doesnt look like huge chunks gone since yday
so id say we are down 60k
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 01, 2019, 11:33:15 AM
Can someone explain to me why automated products need a holiday?  ;D
They probably power down most of the computers and do some maintenance the next time they're powering them up...
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 01, 2019, 11:38:24 AM
Can someone explain to me why automated products need a holiday?  ;D
They probably power down most of the computers and do some maintenance the next time they're powering them up...
Perhaps the system is not fully automated, i.e. a human quality check before the go button is pushed.
Perhaps the AI is so advanced the computers have now demanded equal holiday rights?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Dharma Rupa on May 01, 2019, 12:18:21 PM
Perhaps the AI is so advanced the computers have now demanded equal holiday rights?

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?  (Otherwise known as Bladerunner)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Nikita on May 01, 2019, 12:20:26 PM
NSIDC Data for April (1-29)

Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 01, 2019, 02:06:56 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 30 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,509,627 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,509,627    km2      
-409,801    km2   <   2010's average.
-379,567    k   <   2018
-670,722    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -58    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -28    k   loss
Central Seas__   -24    k   loss
Other Seas___   -6    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -14    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
Greenland____   -8    k   loss
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -5    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
         
Kara_________    6    k   gain
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______   -19    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    6    k   gain
Area loss 58 k, 15 k more than the 2010's average loss of 43 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (215k > 2016) after being lowest for 28 days in a row until 4 days ago.

Temperatures
https://climatereanalyzer.org/ still will not speak to me. 
I have asked the University of Maine if there is a problem.

Other Stuff
The warmth coming in from the Pacific is already affecting area loss in the Bering and Chukchi Seas. Area sea ice loss has accelerated and looked as if it would continue for a few days..

2016 area is still likely to stay lowest for some time to come as it was in very strong area decline at this time.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Wipneus on May 01, 2019, 02:38:58 PM
NSIDC NT extent and area for the Basin only. Extent is just starting to drop from 100%  ice, while sea ice area has now dropped to low records for the day.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 01, 2019, 02:49:23 PM
As it is the end of a month for NSIDC data, here are AREA Sea Ice graphs for year to date

Pacific Gateway:-
Bering - on its way out

Chukchi - impressive recent loss
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 01, 2019, 02:55:30 PM
As it is the end of a month for NSIDC data, here are graphs for year to date

Canadian Seas -
Baffin Bay - below average most of the time,
CAA and Hudson Bay - still dithering around the max.


Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 01, 2019, 03:01:36 PM
As it is the end of a month for NSIDC data, here are AREA graphs for year to date

Atlantic Front

Greenland Sea - recent strong area loss making area well below 2010's average,
Barents Sea -     now at 2010's average
Kara & Laptev  - still dithering around the max
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 01, 2019, 03:03:25 PM
As it is the end of a month for NSIDC data, here are AREA graphs for year to date

Central Seas
ESS, Beaufort and Central Arctic  - still dithering around the max
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 01, 2019, 03:14:40 PM
Other Seas

Okhotsk - melting a bit early this year,
St Lawrence average.

Both irrelevant by Mid-May
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 01, 2019, 04:54:59 PM
I asked the University of Maine today what was up with /climatereanalyzer.org/

Their reply was really quick.
The server died on Monday - it is still dead and they don't know when it is coming back.

So much for the benefits of worry-free cloud computing.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: magnamentis on May 01, 2019, 07:49:34 PM
I asked the University of Maine today what was up with /climatereanalyzer.org/

Their reply was really quick.
The server died on Monday - it is still dead and they don't know when it is coming back.

So much for the benefits of worry-free cloud computing.

thanks and kudos to mr. birkel, i love anyone who communicates properly, really kind of him to take care of individual email, considering the importance and probably traffic volume of that site.

 :-*

just another link to watch for changes or news.

https://twitter.com/reanalyzer?lang=en
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: magnamentis on May 01, 2019, 10:03:39 PM

So much for the benefits of worry-free cloud computing.

"the cloud" = someone else's computer  :o

just use encrypted disk images, ie. sparsbundledisimages and you're safe, very high encryption, no backdoor and by using really long PP like myself (36multilanguageetcpassphrases) it would take centuries for the bad boys to get in.

only this way the cloud is safe.

most of the stuff i simply don't care to bother about that small possibility that someone would see me or my wife naked LOL but then some 15GB that are important like banking, stocks etc stuff are strored safely and backed up to every available computer, cloud and phone i can get a hold on. even backing up to my dad's computer off-site, a bit paranoid perhaps but i run 9 full off-site  data backups and 4 bootable full on-site backups. if I lose my data i'm ripe for the island, 30 years of work, books, artwork etc. in there ;) not to forget all my digitalised venyl ;) ;)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 02, 2019, 05:54:44 AM
There is data! Thanks [ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)]!  :)
Arctic Sea Ice Extent.


April 30th, 2019:
     12,305,376 km2, a drop of -54,291 km2.
     2019 is second lowest on record.
     [2016] - [2019]:  -11,929 km2.

May 1st, 2019:
     12,236,563 km2, a drop of -68,813 km2.
     2019 is second lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Ktb on May 02, 2019, 07:04:23 AM
Bimonthly BOE evaluation.

April 30 extent was 12,305,376 km^2. With on average 136 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -83,128 km^2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).

Surprisingly, there were several days of extent gain in April, and several days of low extent losses. Total extent loss in April was -1,069,805 km^2. And total extent loss so far this season is -1,965,745 km^2. This has resulted in the current average daily drop of -40,691 km^2. This is the 2nd fastest rate of melt from maximum to April 30th, behind 2010 at -43,748 km^2. Although, keep in mind that 2010's maximum was reached on March 31st. (See attachment 2 with graph :D).
Fun Addition: If the month of May ended today, 2019 would have the 3rd fastest rate of melt, behind 2010 and 2014.

Looking only at the month of April, we have averaged -35,660 km^2 per day (much slower than the March powerhouse of this season). This average daily drop places April 2019 as 7th out of 13 (2007-2019) in average daily April melt. (See Attachment 3).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Ktb on May 02, 2019, 07:11:15 AM
And for comparisons to other years:

The following attachment is for actual previous years daily average melt from May 1 to their respective minimums (Attachment 1).

The following section is for what the previous years would have needed for a BOE to occur: From May 1st to each years respective minimum, our current BOE requirement is the 2nd highest value, behind only 2018 with an average daily drop of -80,251 km^2. Keep in mind that 2018's minimum was reached on September 21st, and that 2016's minimum was reached on September 7th. (See attachment 2). End
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 02, 2019, 10:56:00 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,236,563 km2(May 1, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 41 k greater than 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 69k, 15 k more than the average loss of 54 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,035 k, 582 k (40%) greater than the average of 1,453k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 14.7% of the melting season done, with 135 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.81 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.63 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June.

Other Stuff

https://climatereanalyzer.org/ not responding again - server kaput
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 02, 2019, 02:27:19 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 30 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,426,064 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,426,064    km2      
-430,139    km2   <   2010's average.
-392,555    k   <   2018
-712,939    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -84    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -26    k   loss
Central Seas__   -43    k   loss
Other Seas___   -14    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -12    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -11    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -13    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______   -11    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -12    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss

Area loss 84 k, 42 k more than the 2010's average loss of 42 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (197k > 2016) after being lowest for 28 days in a row until 5 days ago.

Temperatures
https://climatereanalyzer.org/ still will not speak to me. 
I asked the University of Maine if there is a problem. They said yes, and no idea when service will be resumed.
A real pity as it is obvious that warmth and wind have marched into the Arctic Ocean via the Pacific Gateway and into Baffin Bay from the Atlantic.

Other Stuff
The warmth coming in from the Pacific is already affecting area loss in the Bering and Chukchi Seas and now causing area loss in the ESS and Beaufort. Area sea ice loss has accelerated and looked as if it would continue for a few days..

2016 area is still likely to stay lowest for some time to come as it was in very strong area decline at this time.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Midnightsun on May 02, 2019, 02:41:20 PM
WXcharts are still working and there is indeed heat in the Arctic.

https://www.wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=gfs,gfs,gfs,gfs&region=polar&chart=2mtemp_anom,850temp,snowdepth,snowdepth&run=18&step=000&plottype=10&lat=51.500&lon=-0.250&skewtstep=0
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 02, 2019, 04:34:25 PM
Just possibly an event unfolding in the ESS
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 02, 2019, 06:09:36 PM
Just possibly an event unfolding in the ESS
That initial crack along the margins of the shallowest bays might still close up. Also possible that it will not do that. Is that the earliest? 2,5 weeks early to 2010s average anyway. How's the weather in Easternmost Russia and currents in Chukchi Sea?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: wdmn on May 02, 2019, 06:57:59 PM
Just possibly an event unfolding in the ESS

Gerontocrat,

Possible to repost that graph showing previous early melt years for the ESS?


Thanks
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Sterks on May 02, 2019, 07:26:04 PM
Just possibly an event unfolding in the ESS
Just add the 2016 and 2017 lines... One of them should show something very similar
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: magnamentis on May 02, 2019, 09:46:49 PM

"the cloud" = someone else's computer  :o

just use encrypted disk images, ie. sparsbundledisimages and you're safe, very high encryption, no backdoor and by using really long PP like myself (36multilanguageetcpassphrases) it would take centuries for the bad boys to get in.

*snip*
Preaching to the choir & I'm way ahead of you (incl. the digitized vinyl)  ;) But pls do not respond here as this is off-topic.  :-X

I just poked around climatereanalyser yet again but could only get a handful of partial page loads...  :'(

analyzer is finally back online but maps are not yet loading, they're probably settings things up as i write.

glad to hear that you're ahead but since i'm interested to learn new and/or better stuff at all times i'd of course appreciate if you would elaborate via PM ;)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Aluminium on May 02, 2019, 10:24:10 PM
Climate Reanalyzer looks good. :D

I tried link on the ASIG.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 03, 2019, 05:56:05 AM
Thanks [ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] for giving us the data on holidays!  :)
Arctic Sea Ice Extent.


May 2nd, 2019:
     12,176,248 km2, a drop of -60,315 km2.
     2019 is second lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 03, 2019, 07:54:07 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,176,248 km2(May 2, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 12 k greater than 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 60k, 12 k more than the average loss of 48 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,095 k, 594 k (40%) greater than the average of 1,501k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 15.2% of the melting season done, with 134 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.80 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.62 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June.

Other Stuff https://climatereanalyzer.org/ has returned.

GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth moving across from the Pacific side as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

Suggests above average but steady sea ice decline?

Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: magnamentis on May 03, 2019, 12:42:32 PM
and climate reanalyzer is gone again for now: 12:41 CEST

emphasizing the time in case it's back in an hour while it's been down now for a while again.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 03, 2019, 02:31:21 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 2 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,332,021 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,332,021    km2      
-460,538    km2   <   2010's average.
-416,241    k   <   2018
-769,120    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -94    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -21    k   loss
Central Seas__   -56    k   loss
Other Seas___   -17    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -7    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -13    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -15    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -14    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -10    k   loss
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______   -9    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss

Area loss 94 k, 47 k more than the 2010's average loss of 47 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (176k > 2016) after being lowest for 28 days in a row until 6 days ago.

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period. Warmth and wind have marched into the Arctic Ocean via the Pacific Gateway and into Baffin Bay from the Atlantic.

Other Stuff
The warmth coming in from the Pacific is affecting area loss in the Bering and Chukchi Seas and now causing area loss in the ESS and Beaufort. Area sea ice loss has accelerated and looks as if it will continue for a few days, as may area loss in Baffin Bay.

2016 area is still likely to stay lowest for some time to come as it was in very strong area decline at this time.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 03, 2019, 03:31:24 PM
NSIDC posted their analysis for April yesterday:  Rapid ice loss in early April leads to new record low (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 04, 2019, 05:44:09 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 3rd, 2019:
     12,117,320 km2, a drop of -58,928 km2.
     2019 is now the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: wdmn on May 04, 2019, 06:50:51 AM
NSIDC posted their analysis for April yesterday:  Rapid ice loss in early April leads to new record low (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 04, 2019, 10:22:52 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,117,320 km2(May 3, 2019)

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record, 27 k less than 2016, and the 27th day extent has been lowest in 2019.
- Extent loss on this day 59k, 13 k more than the average loss of 46 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,154 k, 607 k (39%) greater than the average of 1,547k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 15.7% of the melting season done, with 133 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.78 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.60 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +3 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth moving across from the Pacific side as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

Suggests above average but steady sea ice decline?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 04, 2019, 02:02:52 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 3 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,250,174 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,250,174    km2      
-478,190    km2   <   2010's average.
-430,650    k   <   2018
-811,713    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -82    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -16    k   loss
Central Seas__   -50    k   loss
Other Seas___   -16    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -6    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -20    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -9    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss

Area loss 82 k, 37 k more than the 2010's average loss of 45 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (177k > 2016) after being lowest for 28 days in a row until 7 days ago.

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +3 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period. Warmth and wind have marched into the Arctic Ocean via the Pacific Gateway and into Baffin Bay from the Atlantic.

Other Stuff
The warmth coming in from the Pacific is affecting area loss in the Bering and Chukchi Seas and now causing area loss in the ESS and Beaufort. Area sea ice loss has accelerated and looks as if it will continue for a few days, as may area loss in Baffin Bay.

2016 area is still likely to stay lowest for some time to come as it was in very strong area decline at this time.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 04, 2019, 02:19:03 PM
The East Siberian Sea continues to los area at a rate of knots.
Now 3 weeks ahead of the 2010's average, and 6 weeks ahead of 2018.

The Beaufort also showing signs of joining in.

Getting quite late in the season for a total refreeze? Much depends on how long the above average temperatures and winds favourable for open water expansion last.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 04, 2019, 02:53:45 PM
The East Siberian Sea continues to los area at a rate of knots.
Now 3 weeks ahead of the 2010's average, and 6 weeks ahead of 2018.

The Beaufort also showing signs of joining in.

Getting quite late in the season for a total refreeze? Much depends on how long the above average temperatures and winds favourable for open water expansion last.

Yep, quite late, If the winds don't totally reverse, and that doesn't look likely.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 04, 2019, 03:09:33 PM
NSIDC posted their analysis for April yesterday:  Rapid ice loss in early April leads to new record low (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/)

Amazing how much of the ice exiting and set to exit the Fram is 1st year ice.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 04, 2019, 03:17:02 PM
JAXA daily is in 1st place again (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2533.msg197813.html#msg197813) because 2016 (shown in green) had a (rare) small-loss day.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on May 04, 2019, 04:40:10 PM
The seas with only partial sea ice cover (Okhotsk, St. Lawrence and Barents) show a dramatic decrease in the last week (Okhotsk 36%, St. Lawrence 40%, Barents 55%). If no significant changes (weather, wind direction, drift pattern) occur these seas should be almost ice-free within the next ten to fifteen days.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: uniquorn on May 04, 2019, 05:53:21 PM
Amazing how much of the ice exiting and set to exit the Fram is 1st year ice.
Refreeze between fractured 2-4yr ice perhaps
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Sterks on May 04, 2019, 07:21:06 PM
This year MYI has the shape of a turkey

(just saying, as we have found goats, dinosaurs and other creatures in the pack over the years).
Anyway, this turkey can easily lose the neck
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Thawing Thunder on May 04, 2019, 08:35:09 PM
It will – while its butt is ground in the Fram grinder.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 05, 2019, 07:33:26 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,087,526 km2(May 4, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 6 k more than 2016,
- Extent loss on this day 30k, 19 k less than the average loss of 49 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,184 k, 588 k (37%) greater than the average of 1,596k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 16.1% of the melting season done, with 132 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.80 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.62 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +3 to +4 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth in the Pacific side as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

Suggests average to above average steady sea ice decline?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 05, 2019, 07:40:49 AM
Sorry for being late today…  :(

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 4th, 2019:
     12,087,526 km2, a drop of -29,794 km2.
     2019 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 05, 2019, 07:51:43 AM
Sorry for being late today…  :(

No worries Juan! :)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Wipneus on May 05, 2019, 02:03:09 PM
NSIDC NT sea ice extent and area in the Basin (Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS, Laptev and Cental Basin) continue to drop fast. Area is below anything before in the first days of May.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 05, 2019, 04:18:24 PM
Does anybody have any insight into the fact that 2006 had the lowest extent 'these days' (and was part of the mix for area) while 2019 has the lowest area 'these days' (and is part of the mix for extent)?  All about 'compaction', I think... (but why/how?)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 05, 2019, 05:22:29 PM
Does anybody have any insight into the fact that 2006 had the lowest extent 'these days' (and was part of the mix for area) while 2019 has the lowest area 'these days' (and is part of the mix for extent)?  All about 'compaction', I think... (but why/how?)

I think it was the year a large polynya was born in northern Chukchi that was assumed to be a result of a large influx of Pacific waters, but not sure if this was the year and not sure if this was the time of year either.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 05, 2019, 05:44:10 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 4 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,178,315 km2
               
 11,178,315    km2      
-490,368    km2   <   2010's average.
-426,299    k   <   2018
-843,702    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -72    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -16    k   loss
Central Seas__   -43    k   loss
Other Seas___   -13    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -5    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -22    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -9    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Chukchi______   -6    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss

Area loss 72 k, 8 k more than the 2010's average loss of 64 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (180k > 2016) after being lowest for 28 days in a row until 8 days ago.

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +3 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period. Warmth and wind have marched into the Arctic Ocean via the Pacific Gateway and into Baffin Bay from the Atlantic.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +3 to +4 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth in the Pacific side as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

2016 area is still likely to stay lowest for some time to come as it was in very strong area decline at this time.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Darvince on May 05, 2019, 10:58:46 PM
Does anybody have any insight into the fact that 2006 had the lowest extent 'these days' (and was part of the mix for area) while 2019 has the lowest area 'these days' (and is part of the mix for extent)?  All about 'compaction', I think... (but why/how?)
In 2006 there was lots of compaction from the Atlantic side with it more resembling what it has in recent years than the years directly before and after '06. This year there's uh... pre-preconditioning on the Pacific side of the Arctic?? I don't know what's going on this year, the temperatures there are still quite a ways below freezing.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Sterks on May 06, 2019, 12:29:47 AM
Next week's generalized ramp-up of temperatures in the NH, I guess normal, but with Siberia this time taking the lead (Eastern Siberia will sustain diurnal over freezing temperatures for days) and North America staying cooler with exception of "torrid" Greenland and CAA. We may see the first surface melt over CAA channels.
Attached the GFS ensemble 2m T anom, averaged for next 5 days
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 06, 2019, 05:48:36 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 5th, 2019:
     12,041,650 km2, a drop of -45,876 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: jdallen on May 06, 2019, 09:01:33 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 5th, 2019:
     12,041,650 km2, a drop of -45,876 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

2019 for all intents and purposes, is currently following 2016's track.  The difference is well within the margin of error.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: uniquorn on May 06, 2019, 10:30:49 AM
2019 for all intents and purposes, is currently following 2016's track.  The difference is well within the margin of error.
Extent numbers are similar, the location of the ice is quite different. Click to run
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 06, 2019, 01:35:29 PM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,041,650 km2(May 5, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 3 k more than 2016,
- Extent loss on this day 46k, 7 k less than the average loss of 53 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,229 k, 581 k (35%) greater than the average of 1,648k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 16.7% of the melting season done, with 131 days to average date of minimum (13 September). That is just one-sixth of the average total extent loss in the season

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.81 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.63 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

Suggests average to above average steady sea ice decline?
[/quote]
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 06, 2019, 02:55:12 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,115,138  km2
               
Total Area         
 11,115,138    km2      
-498,816    km2   <   2010's average.
-415,648    k   <   2018
-864,760    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -63    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -18    k   loss
Central Seas__   -31    k   loss
Other Seas___   -15    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -4    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -13    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -6    k   loss
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss


Area loss 63 k, 3 k more than the 2010's average loss of 60 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (168k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +3 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period. Warmth and wind have marched into the Arctic Ocean via the Pacific Gateway and into Baffin Bay from the Atlantic.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

2016 area is still likely to stay lowest for some time to come as it was in very strong area decline at this time.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 07, 2019, 05:47:51 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 6th, 2019:
     11,976,572 km2, a drop of -65,078 km2.
     2019 is now the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on May 07, 2019, 07:08:48 AM
It looks like a race between 2016 and 2019. Let's wait and see what it will look like from mid May on, when 2016 showed higher than average losses...
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Neven on May 07, 2019, 08:17:48 AM
2016 had a 130K drop the day after tomorrow, and a 99K drop after that. Let's see if 2019 can keep up with that for starters.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 07, 2019, 09:12:17 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,976,572 km2(May 6, 2019)

- Extent is  lowest in the satellite record, 10 k less than 2016, lowest for the 28th day this year.
- Extent loss on this day 65k, 18 k more than the average loss of 47 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,295 k, 599 k (35%) greater than the average of 1,695k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 17.2% of the melting season done, with 130 days to average date of minimum (13 September). That is just one-sixth of the average total extent loss in the season

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.79 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.61 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

Suggests average to above average steady sea ice decline?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 07, 2019, 09:24:11 AM
Extent loss on this day 65k, 18 k less than the average loss of 47 k on this day

s/less/more

:)
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 07, 2019, 10:31:29 AM
Extent loss on this day 65k, 18 k less than the average loss of 47 k on this day

s/less/more

:)
whoops
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 07, 2019, 02:02:40 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 6 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,060,514  km2
               
Total Area         
 11,060,514    km2      
-511,748    km2   <   2010's average.
-417,442    k   <   2018
-875,976    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -55    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -21    k   loss
Central Seas__   -26    k   loss
Other Seas___   -8    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -3    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -13    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -8    k   loss
Chukchi______   -10    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Area loss 55 k, 0 k more than the 2010's average loss of 55 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (156k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +3 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period. Warmth and wind have marched into the Arctic Ocean via the Pacific Gateway and into Baffin Bay from the Atlantic.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

2016 area is still likely to stay lowest for a time to come as it was in very strong area decline at this time.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 07, 2019, 03:13:44 PM
Some Area graphs

Baffin Bay - the warmth and southerly winds have had an efect.
Bering Area loss in decline simply because its nearly all gone.
Chukchi and Beaufort still losing area at a rate of knots.

(last year it was the Atlantic Front that seemed to be dissolving in front of our eyes).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 07, 2019, 03:16:53 PM
2016 had a 130K drop the day after tomorrow, and a 99K drop after that. Let's see if 2019 can keep up with that for starters.
I'm glad Gerontocrat put the green 2016 daily gains and losses into his JAXA chart, so we can watch 'in chart form' things like what Neven alerted us to 'in words'.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 08, 2019, 05:58:35 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 7th, 2019:
     11,942,527 km2, a drop of -34,045 km2.
     2019 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: FrostKing70 on May 08, 2019, 07:15:24 AM
In looking at the graph, I wonder if we might become lowest in a week or so, at the inflection point in 2016 around May 9th or 10th...
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 08, 2019, 12:23:30 PM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,942,527 km2(May 7, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd  lowest in the satellite record, 30 k more than 2016
- Extent loss on this day 34k, 19 k less than the average loss of 53 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,328 k, 581 k (33%) greater than the average of 1,748k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 17.7% of the melting season done, with 129 days to average date of minimum (13 September). That is just one-sixth of the average total extent loss in the season

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.81 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.63 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.3 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

Suggests average sea ice decline? (2016 sea ice was in very strong decline at this time).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 08, 2019, 04:24:42 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 7 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,020,509  km2
               
Total Area         
 11,020,509    km2      
-511,210    km2   <   2010's average.
-397,163    k   <   2018
-872,073    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -40    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -14    k   loss
Central Seas__   -19    k   loss
Other Seas___   -7    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -3    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______   -11    k   loss
Chukchi______   -9    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

Area loss 40 k, 2 k less than the 2010's average loss of 42 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (140k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.3 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 09, 2019, 05:46:09 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 8th, 2019:
     11,900,579 km2, a drop of -41,948 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 09, 2019, 06:18:32 PM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,900,579 km2(May 8, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd  lowest in the satellite record, 118 k more than 2016
- Extent loss on this day 42k, 27 k less than the average loss of 69 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,371 k, 554 k (31%) greater than the average of 1,816k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 18.4% of the melting season done, with 128 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.84 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.66 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2.

Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner. At the moment 2012 daily loss still below average.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.3 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

Suggests average sea ice decline? (2016 sea ice was in very strong decline at this time).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Wipneus on May 09, 2019, 06:57:03 PM
NSIDC NT sea ice extent and area in the Arctic Basin (you know what I mean) are now both below anything previously on the 8th of May.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on May 09, 2019, 07:05:50 PM

The ice that actually counts in September. Lets hope for a cold summer.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on May 09, 2019, 07:13:51 PM
Please note that we are about half a month ahead of the grey shaded area. And 2019 is not the first year with that behaviour.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 09, 2019, 07:45:29 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,982,989  km2
               
Total Area         
 10,982,989    km2      
-505,819    km2   <   2010's average.
-375,964    k   <   2018
-861,745    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -38    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -14    k   loss
Central Seas__   -17    k   loss
Other Seas___   -7    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -11    k   loss
Chukchi______   -8    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss

Area loss 38 k, 3 k less than the 2010's average loss of 41 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (116k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 10, 2019, 05:51:21 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 9th, 2019:
     11,861,080 km2, a drop of -39,499 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 10, 2019, 11:21:21 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,861,080 km2(May 9, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd  lowest in the satellite record, 178 k more than 2016
- Extent loss on this day 39k, 18 k less than the average loss of 57 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,410 k, 536 k (29%) greater than the average of 1,874k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 19.0% of the melting season done, with 128 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.85 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.67 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2.

Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner. At the moment 2012 daily loss still below average.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2 to +3 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 10, 2019, 02:24:28 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 9 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,953,362  km2
               
Total Area         
 10,953,362    km2      
-486,383    km2   <   2010's average.
-357,081    k   <   2018
-842,708    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -30    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -14    k   loss
Central Seas__   -14    k   loss
Other Seas___   -2    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -7    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______   -8    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
Laptev_______   -12    k   loss
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Area loss 30 k, 13 k less than the 2010's average loss of 43 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (111k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2 to +3 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 10, 2019, 05:35:01 PM
Here is an area graph showing both 2016 and 2012 data for just the "High Arctic" seas as defined by Tealight. (Kara Sea, Laptev Sea, East Siberian Sea, Chukchi Sea, Beaufort Sea, Canadian Archipelago, Central Arctic).

Also are the AWP graphs from Tealight for those same seas.

A nice illustration of how even though melt was much later in 2012 than in 2016, it did not prevent cumulative AWP in the central Arctic in 2012 ending up much higher than in 2016.

Mind you, it did not stop the ice recovering within a year.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on May 10, 2019, 06:41:21 PM
I took the monthly extent value for April 2019 and added it into my long-term plot where I calculate the anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average April extent is now 14,57 M km². April 2019 had an average extent of 13,46 M km², which is 1,11 M km² less than that average and the lowest April extent since 1979.
In April 2019 the anomaly from the red linear trend line is reduced to -0,06 M km² (calculated this April should have been at 13,52 M km²). For the first time since October 2018 the value is now below that linear trend line. To stay in that position May 2019 must show (slightly) higher than average losses which did not occur in the last ten days.
The slope of the overall trend line has decreased again a tiny little bit (last digit) by one number.

See attached graph.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 11, 2019, 05:49:32 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 10th, 2019:
     11,826,209 km2, a drop of -34,871 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 11, 2019, 07:01:13 AM
NSIDC NT sea ice extent and area in the Arctic Basin (you know what I mean) are now both below anything previously on the 8th of May.
If we look at JAXA values, we could think that 2019 has lost the lowest values leadership against 2016. But it is interesting the Wipneus post. Looking at the Arctic Basin (Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS, Laptev and Cental Basin), 2019 is lower than 2016.

We will have to wait a couple of weeks at least, to see how 2019 develops.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 11, 2019, 11:38:24 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,826,209 km2(May 10, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd  lowest in the satellite record, 193 k more than 2016
- Extent loss on this day 35k, 35 k less than the average loss of 70 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,445 k, 501 k (26%) greater than the average of 1,944k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 19.7% of the melting season done, with 128 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.89 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.71 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2.

Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner. At the moment 2012 daily loss still below average.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2 to +3 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on May 11, 2019, 01:37:09 PM
NSIDC NT sea ice extent and area in the Arctic Basin (you know what I mean) are now both below anything previously on the 8th of May.
If we look at JAXA values, we could think that 2019 has lost the lowest values leadership against 2016. But it is interesting the Wipneus post. Looking at the Arctic Basin (Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS, Laptev and Central Basin), 2019 is lower than 2016.

We will have to wait a couple of weeks at least, to see how 2019 develops.
The big difference outside the basin is in the Barents, where 2019 (black line) has 200k km2 more area compared to 2016 (dark green line). This seems to be driven by extra export this year. The difference could easily persist for another month.
As usual, thanks to Wipneus for the charts.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 11, 2019, 02:48:30 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,921,663  km2
               
Total Area         
 10,921,663    km2      
-465,526    km2   <   2010's average.
-343,493    k   <   2018
-829,776    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -32    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -11    k   loss
Central Seas__   -16    k   loss
Other Seas___   -4    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -7    k   loss
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    6    k   gain
CAA_________   -5    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______   -10    k   loss
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Area loss 32 k, 17 k less than the 2010's average loss of 49 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (141k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2 to +3 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 12, 2019, 06:08:05 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 11th, 2019:
     11,811,736 km2, a drop of -14,473 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
     2013 with not official value. Average calculated.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 12, 2019, 06:43:15 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,811,736 km2(May 11, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd  lowest in the satellite record, 239 k more than 2016
- Extent loss on this day 14k, 49 k less than the average loss of 63 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,459 k, 453 k (23%) greater than the average of 2,003k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 20.3% of the melting season done, with 125 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.94 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.76 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. At the moment 2019 daily loss still well below average and likely to become 3rd lowest below 2018 - perhaps today.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2 to +3 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on May 12, 2019, 08:12:19 AM
The "2017 feeling" starts to rise - with below average extent losses, now through already most of this month. Will extent losses rise in the next weeks or will 2019 move to 3rd, 4th, 5th place in the table?
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Pavel on May 12, 2019, 10:21:15 AM
Remember the 2012 extent numbers at this time of year. The current weather conditions are unfavorable for the CAB ice due to the possible early surface melting and high ice export. Only the land snow cover extent is relatively good for the ice
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: pauldry600 on May 12, 2019, 12:12:02 PM
I think a slowdown is now imminent and we will settle in 5th place but the Northern part of Greenland is a worry. It seems to be making the whole ice pack more mobile. Any cyclones and there could be substantial damage.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 12, 2019, 02:27:38 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,903,723  km2
               
Total Area         
 10,903,723    km2      
-427,622    km2   <   2010's average.
-314,792    k   <   2018
-799,195    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -18    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -7    k   loss
Central Seas__   -9    k   loss
Other Seas___   -1    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______   -5    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________   -6    k   loss
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -9    k   loss
Laptev_______   -5    k   loss
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Area loss 18 k, 35 k less than the 2010's average loss of 53 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (205k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2 to +3 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: magnamentis on May 12, 2019, 02:46:04 PM
The "2017 feeling" starts to rise - with below average extent losses, now through already most of this month. Will extent losses rise in the next weeks or will 2019 move to 3rd, 4th, 5th place in the table?

looking at available webcams it's overcast since days, especially in places where the sun would have done a significant job, hence indeed it appears that the early open water has an impact on humidity in the air and that leads to a reduction of insolation at some point.

of course such patterns can change any time, be it for longer or just sufficiently to receive the bullet sooner or later
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 13, 2019, 06:02:05 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 12th, 2019:
     11,788,391 km2, a drop of -23,345 km2.
     2019 is now 3rd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
     2013 with not official value. Average calculated.
Title: Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 13, 2019, 08:30:33 AM
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,788,391 km2(May 12, 2019)

- Extent is 3rd  lowest in the satellite record, 300 k more than 2016
- Extent loss on this day 23k, 50 k less than the average loss of 73 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,483 k, 403 k (21%) greater than the average of 2,080k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 21.0% of the melting season done, with 124 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.99 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.81 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.