Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Antarctica => Topic started by: Paddy on January 15, 2019, 12:26:43 AM

Title: January Poll 2019: JAXA Antarctic minimum
Post by: Paddy on January 15, 2019, 12:26:43 AM
Please give your best guess in answer to the poll title.  The poll closes at the end of January; you may change your answer at any time up to then.  Narrow overlapping bins have been used.

Figures from previous years (with thanks to Darvince for his post in 2016 with most of these):

2018: 2.21 (2nd lowest)
2017: 2.15 (lowest on record)
2016: 2.66
2015: 3.59 (2nd highest)
2014: 3.54
2013: 3.69 (highest on record)
2012: 3.22
2011: 2.32

2006: 2.41

1997: 2.25 (3rd lowest)

1993: 2.37

1986: 3.01
1985: 2.58
1984: 2.53
1983: 2.91
1982: 3.01
1981: 2.74
1980: 2.53
1979: 2.87

Last year's poll results can be found here:https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2240.0.html
 
Give it your best guess :-)
Title: Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Antarctic minimum
Post by: Paddy on January 15, 2019, 04:55:17 AM
Personally, I've gone 2 to 2.25, because of the picture of currently being 0.1 million sq km below the record lowest year (which finished at 2.15), but having mainly pretty compacted ice left, making me think we may finish somewhere close to the record.
Title: Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Antarctic minimum
Post by: Stephan on January 15, 2019, 07:16:21 PM
I bet the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent will just keep above 2 M km² (e.g. 2.08 M km²) but not go below it. According to the slower than average decline in the last week and the compactness of the remaining sea ice I wouldn't bet for the 1.875-2.125 M bin, so I chose the one above it (like Paddy did).
Title: Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Antarctic minimum
Post by: gerontocrat on January 16, 2019, 02:53:08 PM
I bet the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent will just keep above 2 M km² (e.g. 2.08 M km²) but not go below it. According to the slower than average decline in the last week and the compactness of the remaining sea ice I wouldn't bet for the 1.875-2.125 M bin, so I chose the one above it (like Paddy did).
For those wondering about how much further melt will happen, attached is a graph of sea ice concentration derived from https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data

And postings by Tealight highlighted that the key is the Weddell sea so here is that graph as well
Title: Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Antarctic minimum
Post by: Paddy on January 24, 2019, 08:23:19 AM
Gone up half a bin to 2.125 - 2.375 on the basis of recent very slow melt.
Title: Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Antarctic minimum
Post by: Paddy on January 30, 2019, 08:17:32 AM
Just over 24 hours until the poll closes. Last chance to submit or change your vote.
Title: Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Antarctic minimum
Post by: gerontocrat on January 30, 2019, 09:01:37 AM
In my last post re Antarctic Sea Ice Extent ( https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.msg187620.html#msg187620 ) I suggest that while the last 10 years average remaining melt would produce a minimum of 2.14 million km2, current trends in melt look more like producing a min of 2.4 milion km2.

To confuse the issue more, I added trend lines to the graphs of daily change (linear) and daily extent (x2)

The daily change trend line (R2 coefficient 0.996) says only about 100k of more melt to go, i.e. a minimum of around 2.9 million on around the 5th Feb, 2 weeks earlier than average. The daily extent trend line says the melt is over already.

So much for trend lines. Ho hum.
Title: Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Antarctic minimum
Post by: Paddy on January 30, 2019, 07:05:34 PM
Ok, that clinches it. Gone up half a bin again to 2.25 - 2.5. (We're seeing consistently slightly less daily melt this year than last year, and if we saw the same remaining melt as last year, we'd bottom out at 2.3, so I'm guessing just over that).
Title: Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Antarctic minimum
Post by: Stephan on January 30, 2019, 08:30:44 PM
I keep on with my 2.08 M km² I bet for some weeks ago. I think there will be a rallye downward in the next couple of weeks with slightly average to well above average losses.
But this is just a guess, not knowledge...
Title: Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Antarctic minimum
Post by: Juan C. García on January 30, 2019, 08:53:17 PM
Bin 2.25 - 2.50 Just a guess.
Title: Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Antarctic minimum
Post by: Darvince on February 01, 2019, 02:19:45 PM
My final vote was 2.25 - 2.5, although if I had visited this forum since a few days ago I likely would have raised it higher to 2.375 - 2.625. I'll just hope it manages to get below 2.5 then :P
Title: Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Antarctic minimum
Post by: magnamentis on February 01, 2019, 08:59:12 PM
My final vote was 2.25 - 2.5, although if I had visited this forum since a few days ago I likely would have raised it higher to 2.375 - 2.625. I'll just hope it manages to get below 2.5 then :P

i'm kidding because i know you mean the poll and not the implication of:

" hope it will drop belo 2.5...... "

just for awareness, could be misunderstood

nice weekend @all
Title: Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Antarctic minimum
Post by: Paddy on February 18, 2019, 10:06:26 PM
It's now looking not unlikely that all but one of us may have guessed too low... if it turns out that way, much kudos to the one person who went for 2.375 - 2.625, whoever you are.

EDIT: And now it appears 9 of us may be on the money.
Title: Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Antarctic minimum
Post by: Paddy on March 03, 2019, 10:46:20 AM
I'm going to agree with Gerontocrat and call the minimum at 2,424,731 square km. Which means the eight people who guessed 2.25 -> 2.5 and the one who guessed 2.375 -> 2.625 have all proved accurate.  Better luck next time to everyone else, although those who went for 2.125 -> 2.375 shouldn't feel too bad since they were, of course, damn close.

As is often the way in this forum, the median and modal predictions fell a fair ways south of the actual figure, both being in the 2 -> 2.25 band. Still not wildly unrealistic, though, imho.