Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Consequences => Topic started by: sark on February 17, 2019, 09:58:08 PM

Title: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: sark on February 17, 2019, 09:58:08 PM
North of the ITCZ, February 18th, 2019.  250 miles from Micronesia, Invest 92W is organizing and has been upgraded by Joint Typhoon Warning Center to Medium confidence of development.

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

GFS has been showing this system growing to Cat 4-5 and then blowing north as an extratropical cyclone, right up the Bering Strait and into the Arctic.

We watched the last hurricane of the season, Oscar, turned out to sea in the Atlantic and then straight into the polar cell as an extratropical cyclone.  Oscar entered the Arctic around November 1, and within days the stratospheric polar vortex began to ping pong around, a displacement which culminated in the polar vortex split and wild winter weather we are still experiencing.

It's a similar set up.  A calm, organized polar vortex at the north pole.  Incoming tropical storm.

Is it too much to anticipate, two major polar vortex disruptions in one winter?

Standard disclaimers:  GFS long range, ECMWF forecasts it much weaker, although it strengthened in the last run.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: sark on February 19, 2019, 09:46:30 PM
Invest 92W is now known as Wutip

https://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1902.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on February 23, 2019, 10:01:06 PM
Typhoon near Guam. https://watchers.news/2019/02/23/typhoon-wutip-guam-february-2019/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on February 23, 2019, 11:20:18 PM
Wutip has winds about 155 mph (1-min mean) now.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on February 25, 2019, 10:18:07 AM
Quote
02W WUTIP
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 25, 2019:

Location: 13.8°N 140.2°E
Maximum Winds: 140 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 918 mb
Source (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/).
Category 5 in February!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Gray-Wolf on February 25, 2019, 08:58:02 PM
WOW!

I know I have my ideas about China reducing its dimming impacts across the Pacific but surely not to the point of us seeing cat 5's in Feb!!!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on March 12, 2019, 06:10:32 PM
Intense tropical cyclone Idai in the south-west Indian Ocean. EOSDIS Worldview (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=geographic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2019-03-12-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=29.653894505862176,-24.708828393422166,53.665613255862176,-12.878750268422166). 40 deaths after the first landfall in Africa and it is going to make second.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on March 13, 2019, 09:00:21 PM
Idai has a large eye, 70 km. One day before landfall.
Source (https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18S/18S_floater.html).
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on March 15, 2019, 02:29:40 AM
Cyclone Idai: Mozambique braces for 'worst-case scenario' storm   
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-47576831

People living in one of Mozambique's largest cities have been warned to expect the "worst-case scenario" as a major cyclone makes landfall.

Cyclone Idai, which is carrying winds of up to 225 km/h (140 mph), is making landfall near the port of Beira.

A storm surge of at least six metres (20 feet) is expected near low-lying Beira, a city of 500,000 people, Météo France said.

The surge could be even higher because of high tide, Météo France warned.

Heavy rains have already killed about 100 people in Mozambique and Malawi.

Beira is the fourth largest city in Mozambique and its major port sits on the mouth of the Pungwe river, that runs to Zimbabwe.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on March 18, 2019, 07:53:17 PM
Idai destroyed 90 % of all homes in Beira.  https://www.hln.be/nieuws/buitenland/president-vrees-voor-meer-dan-duizend-doden-door-cycloon-idai-in-mozambique~aaac21bc/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on March 19, 2019, 02:40:23 AM
Cyclone Idai: More than 1,000 Feared Dead in Mozambique
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/18/cyclone-idai-death-toll-climbs-over-120-in-mozambique-and-zimbabwe

... President Filipe Nyusi told Mozambican radio he had seen “many bodies” floating in the overflowing Pungwe and Busi rivers. “It appears that we can register more than 1,000 deaths,” he said, adding that more than 100,000 people were at risk because of severe flooding.

... “The situation is terrible. The scale of devastation is enormous. It seems that 90 per cent of the area is completely destroyed,” said Jamie LeSueur of the Red Cross. “We are also hearing that the situation outside the city could be even worse. Yesterday, a large dam burst and cut off the last road to the city.”

... The cyclone will have far-reaching consequences beyond the flooding. Farmers in the region were about to harvest their maize crop when Idai hit, and many of their fields have been ruined, meaning widespread hunger in at least the year ahead.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on March 19, 2019, 03:31:01 PM
Cyclone Idai: Huge Area of Mozambique Submerged   
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-africa-47624156

An aerial survey of Mozambique's cyclone-hit province shows that a 50km (30 mile) stretch of land is under water, charity Save The Children says.

The flooding was caused after River Buzi burst its banks, it adds.   


Buzi town, which is estimated to be home to more than 2,500 children, could be under water within 24 hours, Save The Children warned.

... Floods of up to six metres deep had caused "incredible devastation" over a huge area in Mozambique, World Food Programme regional chief Lola Castro said.

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/695/cpsprodpb/15354/production/_106086868_map.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on March 20, 2019, 01:36:23 AM
Cyclone Idai 'Might Be Southern Hemisphere's Worst Such Disaster
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/19/cyclone-idai-worst-weather-disaster-to-hit-southern-hemisphere-mozambique-malawi

https://youtu.be/rCO9MSRXYWA
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on March 20, 2019, 08:34:18 AM
Ryan Maue (https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1108251297290092544)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on March 20, 2019, 08:50:51 PM
Veronica has grown by 50 kt per 6 hours. :o
Current storm information (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/)
Quote
21S VERONICA
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 20, 2019:

Location: 15.9°S 117.8°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 987 mb

...

21S VERONICA
As of 18:00 UTC Mar 20, 2019:

Location: 15.9°S 117.6°E
Maximum Winds: 110 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 mb
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on March 21, 2019, 02:40:49 AM
Veronica looks like it's a real steamroller. Cat 5 right up till landfall.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bom.gov.au%2Ffwo%2FIDW60280.png%3F1553130307859&hash=08083778acbe38df59ebba119144254c)
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

Trevor is no slouch, either. CAT 4-5 at landfall

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bom.gov.au%2Ffwo%2FIDD65001.png%3F1553131953804&hash=4108c3da72524b7bd0a4a43fffcedb6f)
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD65011.shtml

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=x1-UE8Ef5bE

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-21/cyclone-trevor-reaches-gulf-but-could-still-threaten-cape-york/10923112
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on March 21, 2019, 08:00:34 AM
Cyclone Idai: Rescuers Race Against Time to Reach Survivors 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/20/cyclone-idai-rising-flood-levels-threaten-mozambique-disaster-relief-effort

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/600/cpsprodpb/A3DF/production/_106115914_floodsbeforeandafter.jpg)

Aid agencies are scrambling to reach survivors of Cyclone Idai in Mozambique as the full scale of the disaster becomes clear.

Charities say thousands of people are stranded by catastrophic flooding, clinging to roofs or stuck in trees.

In the port city of Beira aid workers say they have only two to three days of clean water left.

Mozambique President Felipe Nyusi has said more than 100,000 people are at risk. 


... "We are running out of time. People have been waiting for rescue for more than three days now. We can't pick up all the people so our priority are children, pregnant women, injured people." 

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/ad8cb6f8a0d77481c962a52c67a4844f98943d7d/0_0_960_576/master/960.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=a367113d9102d6913e7c76fae7389e46)

... Rescue workers, military personnel and volunteers are rushing to save thousands of Mozambicans before flood levels rise further, but with four helicopters, a handful of boats and extremely difficult conditions, have only been able to save about 413 so far.

... Trower described the difficulty of rescuing people, most of whom cannot swim, with boats, using 20-metre lines from helicopters or swimming to them in the trees. Saturday night was the most difficult because of strong currents, he said.

“Mothers were throwing their babies out from the trees to us into our boats and we were then paddling them to shore,” he said. “The water was flowing extremely fast underneath and we couldn’t get into the really strong current or we would have been washed away ourselves.”

... There is a limited window in which survivors will be able to stay alive, given that most have no access to food and clean water. 

With heavy rains still falling in the region, floodwaters are predicted to rise in the coming days, meaning more people will need to be rescued; Mozambique’s president, Filipe Nyusi, warned there could be waves up to eight metres high.

Emergency teams are shifting their focus from rescue to delivering aid and evacuating Buzi, a town of 200,000 people that is expected to be partially submerged in the coming surge.   


(https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/mozambique-flood-3.gif)
Copernicus Sentinal#1

... “I have never seen water rise so fast,” he said. “We were about 80km from Vilanculos where we came across this village. Everyone was in the trees and the women were throwing their babies to us. When we went back the next day, only the treetops were visible. The whole village had gone.

“There is huge urgency now to get to people. Given the size of the lake we are seeing on the satellite images we need to ask where are the people who live there.” 


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-47647804
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on March 21, 2019, 12:39:33 PM
I can only imagine what is happening in Mozambique. Without significant outside help this will turn into a tragedy of much bigger proportions.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 23, 2019, 03:00:47 PM
Australia

Port Hedland could be in the eye of Cyclone Veronica for up to eight hours, authorities warn
Quote
The system is also expected to create dangerous storm surges that are likely to cause significant flooding and could see parts of Port Hedland become temporary islands as low lying areas are inundated.

Residents head to evacuation centre

The evacuation centre in South Hedland has been filling with people.

A small army of volunteers has set up bedding and support services, while volunteers have been delivering enough food, water and toiletries to last several days.

"I just volunteered last night, we were talking about it and they didn't know how they were going to get the gear over here," volunteer Jason Maracic said.  "Me and another bloke, with two trucks, sent one to Coles and one to Woolworths just to make it a bit easier for them."

Kirk Morrison was among those staying at the centre and said having spent most of his life in the north-west, that it was not his "first rodeo" when it came to cyclones. ...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-23/cyclone-veronica-saturday-landfall-expected/10932098
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on March 23, 2019, 03:05:29 PM
Cyclone Idai: Cholera cases reported in storm-hit Mozambique

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-47674253

Quote
The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) warned of the risk of other outbreaks, already noting an increase in malaria.

The storm has so far killed 557 people across Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi, but the death toll is expected to rise.

Idai made landfall near Beira with 177km/h (106 mph) winds on 14 March.

Aid workers are slowly delivering relief but conditions are said to be extremely difficult, with some areas completely inaccessible and a scarcity of helicopters.

Some 1.7 million people are said to be affected across southern Africa, with no electricity or running water in areas where homes have been swept away and roads destroyed by the floods.

The illusion that we are independent from what is going in Mozambique (and the midwest, and Australia.. you all know) is what is going to get us.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on March 24, 2019, 03:23:49 AM
Aid agencies in race against time after Cyclone Idai
https://dw.com/en/aid-agencies-in-race-against-time-after-cyclone-idai/a-48034299

... The death toll will likely increase massively, with thousands believed to have died in Mozambique where flooding has created a 125-kilometer (78-mile) wide lake, devastating an area previously populated by hundreds of thousands of people. The World Food Program (WFP) declared the flood crisis a level three emergency, putting it in the same bracket with Yemen, Syria and South Sudan.

At this stage of the rescue effort, there were almost no survivors being recovered from rooftops and trees, Mozambique's disaster management agency said.

... "We are running out of time, it is at a critical point here," the United Nations children's agency (UNICEF) chief Henrietta Fore told AFP news agency. She warned hygiene and safe drinking water are absolute priorities.

"There's stagnant water, it's not draining, decomposing bodies, lack of good hygiene and sanitation," Fore said. "We are worried about cholera, about malaria, because of the stagnant water."  ...


-----------------------------

Meanwhile, with 2 carrier groups 40 rotor-craft and water purification equipment within 1800 miles of the humanitarian disaster, plus an additional 20 transport aircraft from AFRICOM and Diego Garcia even closer - Trump does NOTHING! to help.

(https://news.usni.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/FT_3_18_2019-660x370.jpg)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on March 24, 2019, 04:59:44 PM
90Q (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#90Q) is invest in the South Atlantic Ocean.
(https://pp.userapi.com/c849424/v849424006/15900f/0x5EXobeaj0.jpg)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on March 24, 2019, 05:36:20 PM
Related ...

Rare South Atlantic Tropical Storm May Develop In the Week Ahead   
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2019-03-23-south-atlantic-tropical-storm-brazil
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on March 24, 2019, 05:45:43 PM
It's formed.
Quote
SPECIAL WARNING
ISSUED AT 1600 UTC - SUN - 24/MAR/2019
TROPICAL STORM "IBA" WITH ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 HPA AT 18.5S036W AND ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KT.
Source (https://www.marinha.mil.br/chm/dados-do-smm/warnings-and-forecasts/warnings).
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on March 24, 2019, 07:11:59 PM
Quote
UPDATE from our @WCKitchen team @SamBloch1 on the ground in Beira, #Mozambique! Kitchen already cooking— hundreds of meals delivered today...many more tomorrow and beyond! 100,000+ lost homes...huge need here. #ChefsForMozambique
https://twitter.com/chefjoseandres/status/1109875977105100800

Video in the tweet.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on March 28, 2019, 03:22:34 AM
10,000 hot meals served by our #ChefsForMozambique team across 4 camps & shelters today! Proud of @WCKitchen leading the way, but wouldn’t be possible without incredible local support...so much need here after cyclone—soon we will be serving 50k+ per day...

https://twitter.com/chefjoseandres/status/1111058956850479105


These meals go farther than just the calories they provide. Warm food when all there is chaos around you is a great psychological and physiological relief for both rescue workers and people.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on March 29, 2019, 12:19:49 AM
Small Island Damaged by Second Cyclone this Year 
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.freightwaves.com/news/weather/small-island-damaged-by-second-cyclone-this-year

It’s been a busy year so far for cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere. Australia has been hit by two major storms this March, Trevor and Veronica, that suspended dry bulk shipping around the northern coasts of the country. The world’s two largest dry bulk ports – Hedland and Dampier – are located there, and were still shut down as March 25, 2019. The two large, strong cyclones struck back-to-back in a short period of time. Major liquefied natural gas export facilities along the northwestern Australian coast have also suspended operations. All of this happening about a month before the official end of Australia’s cyclone season.

Another area south of the equator that has had recent run-ins with cyclones is the island of Rodrigues in the Indian Ocean. Tropical Cyclone Joaninha came close to making a direct hit earlier this week, and continues to linger nearby as of this evening (Thursday, March 28), local time (EDT plus eight hours). At its closest point, the eye of the storm was only 50 miles from Rodrigues, which is home to about 40,000 people

(https://watchers.news/data/uploads/tc-joaninha-jtwc-fcst-march-27-2019-1500z.gif)
https://watchers.news/2019/03/27/tropical-cyclone-joaninha-rodrigues-island-march-2019/

Joaninha trudged along, moving at a sluggish 10 mph, ensuring a drawn out onslaught from the cyclone. Winds in Rodrigues’ capital of Port Mathurin, on the north coast, gusted over 60 mph (Tropical Storm strength) for more than 30 hours. The highest recorded gust anywhere on the island was around 100 mph (Category 2 Hurricane strength).

... This is the second storm to hit Rodrigues this year. Cyclone Gelena, a storm of similar size and strength as Joaninha, passed by the island in early February. It destroyed 90 percent of its electric grid, and forced the evacuation of more than 140 people to shelters.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2019/03/tropical-cyclone-joaninha-slams-indian-ocean-island-rodrigues-190327091423484.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on March 30, 2019, 11:13:38 PM
Cholera Is Spreading In Mozambique In the Wake of Cyclone Idai   
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/3/29/18287342/mozambique-cyclone-idai-cholera-how-to-help

... Reports indicate that there are 139 cases of cholera in the port city Beira, Mozambique, and that number is expected to rise (no cases have been reported yet in Zimbabwe or Malawi). There are no confirmed deaths from cholera so far.

If V. cholerae starts spreading, it can be difficult to control. Outbreaks usually happen when a country’s health, hygiene, and water systems break down — and that’s why they can appear after a natural disaster or amid a humanitarian crisis.

... Making matters worse “Cyclone Idai’s wreckage came on top of an already serious food insecurity situation in Mozambique,” the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, reports. “From September to December 2018, an estimated 1.78 million people... were severely food insecure in the country.” Those problems are now exacerbated by the storm. The United Nations World Food Programme has classified the situation in Mozambique as its highest-level emergency.

And that brings us back to cholera spreading in Beira.

“Malnutrition and cholera are interconnected,” Jamie McGoldrick, the UN humanitarian coordinator for Yemen told the Washington Post. “Weakened and hungry people are more likely to contract cholera and cholera is more likely to flourish in places where malnutrition exists.”

--------------------------

Mozambique Cholera Cases Double in 48 Hours 
https://dw.com/en/mozambique-cholera-cases-double-in-48-hours/a-48132887

Having survived a monumental cyclone and widespread flooding, people are now facing a cholera crisis. Almost a million doses of cholera vaccine are on their way, but in the meantime, the number of cases is exploding.

The number of reported cases of cholera in Mozambique has doubled in 48 hours, authorities said.

- 271 cases of cholera have been reported in the port city of Beira. Suspected cases were also reported in the hard-hit areas of Buzi, Tica and Nhamathanda.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Paddy on March 31, 2019, 06:22:19 PM
One good appeal page for the victims of cyclone idai can be found here: https://donation.dec.org.uk/#/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on April 24, 2019, 10:10:36 AM
Still Reeling From Idai, Mozambique Faces Another Powerful Cyclone This Week 
https://earther.gizmodo.com/still-reeling-from-idai-mozambique-faces-another-power-1834252575

(https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--8tLcQodY--/c_fill,f_auto,fl_progressive,g_center,h_358,q_80,w_636/dqpir7mdm5fv8zz3buce.jpg)

... Cyclone Kenneth is chugging from the Pacific toward Mozambique. Currently the equivalent of a tropical storm with sustained winds of about 52 mph, the cyclone is expected to strengthen in the coming days. Cyclone Kenneth is forecast to strafe the island nation of Comoros before plowing into Mozambique’s northern coast on Thursday or early Friday.

The island archipelago of Comoros could actually bear the worst impacts of Kenneth, wind-wise. The storm is expected to top out at 103 mph—the equivalent of a Category 2 storm—early on Thursday as it hits Comoros’ main island. That would make it the first hurricane-force storm in recorded history to make landfall in Comoros, according to data kept by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The 3,000-foot escarpments on the northern end of the island could help weaken Kenneth a bit before the storm strike Mozambique later that day as a strong Category 1 with winds of up to 92 mph ... But that’s where the marginally good news comparisons end. There are a number of population centers still in this storm’s path according, to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast. They include Pemba, a city of roughly 200,000, and Palma, a small town that’s a hub of liquified natural gas exports.

As with Idai, rain is also a major concern. The storm is expected to slowly move inland, a recipe for copious rain and flooding. Up to 20 inches of rain could fall according to Bloomberg, totals that are worrisomely in line with Idai’s forecast.

Any people requiring help in the wake of Cyclone Kenneth will have to rely on a support system still overtaxed by Idai. There are still more than 77,000 internally displaced people and the United Nations reports that even a month after the storm, aid workers are finding communities that have been cut off from the outside world. A cholera outbreak fueled by the Idai’s floodwaters has affected more than 6,000. According to another United Nations report released on Saturday, “[m]any interior roads remain inaccessible, as numerous secondary roads were washed away or cut off.”
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on April 24, 2019, 08:11:48 PM
Landfall for India.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on April 24, 2019, 08:13:26 PM
Accumulated rainfall for the next 10 days. He's going to cross the entire south.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on April 24, 2019, 09:06:43 PM
Kenneth threatens to bring extreme rains to cyclone-
ravaged Mozambique – Rapid intensification expected 

https://desdemonadespair.net/2019/04/kenneth-threatens-to-bring-extreme-rains-to-cyclone-ravaged-mozambique-rapid-intensification-expected.html

(https://desdemonadespair.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Predicted-surface-winds-Tropical-Cyclone-Kenneth-25-Apr-2019-WU.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on April 25, 2019, 07:53:07 AM
Kenneth is intense tropical cyclone now. 2018-19 South-West Indian cyclone season set some new records.

15 storms. Previous highest was 14 in 1993-94.
10 tropical cyclones. Previous highest was 9 in 2001-02.
10 intense tropical cyclones. Previous highest was 6 in 2006-07.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on April 25, 2019, 08:06:22 PM
Cyclone Kenneth coming ashore on Northern Mozambique coast with 120 knot (220kmh) sustained winds, 145 (270kmh) knot gusts.



Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on April 27, 2019, 11:05:40 AM
Tropical cyclone One has formed in the North Indian.
(https://pp.userapi.com/c856024/v856024099/2da31/BfCK81LHIQs.jpg)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bluesky on April 27, 2019, 08:32:11 PM
"An unprecedented event for northern Mozambique
In records going back 50 years, far northern Mozambique has no record of storms of even minimal hurricane strength, much less a system as powerful as Kenneth. The landfall location (12°S) is quite close to the equator, in a latitude range where it becomes more difficult for cyclones to gather enough atmospheric spin to develop. Only a couple of tropical depressions and tropical storms have made landfall this far north in Mozambique or in Tanzania in the several decades of satellite coverage.
Kenneth ranks among the strongest landfalls on record for the entire African mainland. Cyclone Leon-Eline struck Mozambique on Feb. 26, 2000, with top one-minute sustained winds of 134 mph as assessed by JTWC. Off the mainland, Cyclones Hary (2000) and Gafilo (2004) both struck Madagascar at Category 5 strength, with top sustained winds of 160 mph, according to JTWC."

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Category-4-Kenneth-Crashes-Ashore-Mozambique-Devastating-Rains-Still-Come?cm_ven=cat6-widget
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bbr2314 on April 28, 2019, 12:10:23 AM
Parallel equatorial cyclones in the Indian and the remnant over Africa... wow! The cyclone that's forecast to impact India and Bangladesh is likely to result in another +500MB bulge that enters the Arctic via ESS (IMO).
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on April 28, 2019, 03:21:36 AM
After Cyclone Kenneth, Mozambique hit by rain and winds 
https://dw.com/en/after-cyclone-kenneth-mozambique-hit-by-rain-and-winds/a-48507946

Heavy rain and winds across northern Mozambique on Friday brought warnings from the UN of "massive flooding" to come in the next few days as Cyclone Kenneth moves slowly inland over northern Mozambique.

The UN World Food Programme (WFP) said it was possible 600 millimeters (almost 24 inches) of rain could fall over the next few days in some areas. This would be double the amount of rain that fell on the central city of Beira during the cyclone which hit in March.

The storm hit Mozambique just as crops including cotton, maize, soybeans and millet were about to be harvested.
It was the first storm to make landfall over the northern coast's Cabo Delgado province in 60 years.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on April 28, 2019, 08:21:52 PM
India's turn.
Cyclone Fani likely to make landfall around the 3rd of May.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on April 29, 2019, 09:51:58 AM
Mozambique Situation 'Worse than Thought': UN Agency
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-48087906

The situation in northern Mozambique is worse than thought, a UN spokesman says, days after Cyclone Kenneth ravaged the country.

The system struck the Africa nation on Thursday with winds of 220km/h (140mph) which flattened whole villages.

Around 700,000 people are now thought to be at risk in the area as torrential rains continue.

Pemba, regional capital of Cabo Delgado state, has experienced more than 2m (6.5ft) of rain and flooding.


"We are very worried because, according to the forecasts, heavy rain is expected for the next four days," Deborah Nguyen, UN World Food Programme spokeswoman, told AFP news agency.

"We expect the rainfall to be twice as much as that which accompanied Cyclone Idai," she added.

Landslides are a growing worry in the city's Mahate neighbourhood, regional Ocha authorities said, while in the Natite neighbourhood houses have started to collapse.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on May 01, 2019, 10:40:43 PM
Fani is getting bigger. https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/extremely-severe-cyclone-fani-headed-towards-odisha-all-you-need-to-know-119043000128_1.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Rodius on May 02, 2019, 02:59:37 AM
This has growing potential off the coast of the US

https://cbs12.com/weather/hurricane-maps/low-pressure-of-our-coast-now-being-watched-by-national-hurricane-center
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Susan Anderson on May 02, 2019, 05:39:57 AM
Fani is a big deal, about a day and a half away. Could be more than catastrophic. Kenneth is still causing unbearable human suffering (Mozambique etc.), after Idai as well. The thing off Florida is not yet, and unlikely to become, a very big deal, except it's a mite early. For reliable information, here. A lot of meteo enthusiasts and experts post in the comment section, and during storms the leaders do a good job of updating the main Category 6 articles (Masters, Henson, et al.).
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Widespread-Surge-Threat-Fani-Moves-toward-Northeast-India (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Widespread-Surge-Threat-Fani-Moves-toward-Northeast-India)

There are floods in quite a few places and the US is having a stream of tornadoes.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Susan Anderson on May 02, 2019, 05:46:30 AM
See if I can paste this; hah, it worked! Hope it stays ...
(https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6818d0c5f0f71b42be084c88e40548939e9d1e098a1133298eab59e076201700.png?w=800&h=884)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on May 02, 2019, 09:34:25 AM
Latest data (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/) about extremely severe cyclonic storm Fani.
Quote
01B FANI
As of 06:00 UTC May 02, 2019:

Location: 16.8°N 85.0°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 939 mb
This cyclone is the strongest in the North Indian basin since 2015.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Rodius on May 02, 2019, 10:28:17 AM
Fani is a big deal, about a day and a half away. Could be more than catastrophic. Kenneth is still causing unbearable human suffering (Mozambique etc.), after Idai as well. The thing off Florida is not yet, and unlikely to become, a very big deal, except it's a mite early. For reliable information, here. A lot of meteo enthusiasts and experts post in the comment section, and during storms the leaders do a good job of updating the main Category 6 articles (Masters, Henson, et al.).
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Widespread-Surge-Threat-Fani-Moves-toward-Northeast-India (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Widespread-Surge-Threat-Fani-Moves-toward-Northeast-India)

There are floods in quite a few places and the US is having a stream of tornadoes.

I understand that there are large storms in progress around the world and that they are truly bad. I also know the US storm is unlikely to be big news.

While the storm I mentioned is unlikely to turn into anything of importance, I was referring more to the part where hurricanes are beginning earlier in that region of the world.... if this becomes a named storm it will be 5 years in a row of it happening before the hurricane season begins. To me, that is beginning to tell us a story of significance concerning climate change.

I will be clearer next time of the intent of the post
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on May 02, 2019, 03:17:35 PM
Cyclone Fani looks like it is going to clobber the historical city of Puri with sustained winds of 100+ knots. The capital of Odisha (was Orissa) Bhubaneswar is not far inland and will also be affected.

Unless things have changed a lot in the nearly 20 years or so since I was there, Odisha's economy is almost entirely rural small-scale farming.

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on May 02, 2019, 04:03:08 PM
Joint Cyclone Center (https://twitter.com/JointCyclone/status/1123949862293319684)
#CycloneFani Advisory 17
Max Winds: 165mph
Strength: C5
MSLP: 918mb
UPDATE: Core of Cyclone Fani becomes Category 5 tropical cyclone with 165mph. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall also expected along the East Coast of Visakhapatnam offshore...
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Susan Anderson on May 02, 2019, 05:44:25 PM
@Rodius
Sorry, didn't mean to make it personal. I've been following Fani with my heart in my mouth, those poor people, and saw quite a bit of discussion about the Florida thing on the same board (link above, which is useful to those who want more information).

I agree, the general trend towards earlier and later is ominous ...

Another knock-on, though I don't comprehend the scientific part, is that since cyclonic activity is a way of venting excess heat both north and vertically, it's a problem that increases polar melt over time. I am absolutely fascinated by the interlocking systems.

Thanks for your reply.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Rodius on May 03, 2019, 01:05:19 AM
@Rodius
Sorry, didn't mean to make it personal. I've been following Fani with my heart in my mouth, those poor people, and saw quite a bit of discussion about the Florida thing on the same board (link above, which is useful to those who want more information).

I agree, the general trend towards earlier and later is ominous ...

Another knock-on, though I don't comprehend the scientific part, is that since cyclonic activity is a way of venting excess heat both north and vertically, it's a problem that increases polar melt over time. I am absolutely fascinated by the interlocking systems.

Thanks for your reply.

I wasnt taking it personally, I also watch the hurricanes hit these regions and see the death and destruction happening and ignored by Western media as a basic rule and it boggles my mind that it is roundly ignored after a few days while millions will spend years recuperating or dying from disease, starvation and what will likely be violence on top of it all. Poor parts of the world get hit hardest first..... the rest of us will follow suit when the environment refuses to provide for our needs. Money only buys time at the expense of those who dont have it, not much else.

Even so, large events take up space while the smaller, quieter ones can be missed yet, in a big picture, they can mean just as much as the big current events.

Like you, the science aspect is a learning curve and it is intertwined and it is fascinating and terrifying at the same time.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 03, 2019, 11:08:13 AM
A million people evacuated from South Asia cyclone Fani

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nC10Fdy5lTg
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on May 03, 2019, 06:26:26 PM
Most of Odisha (Orissa) is a very low-lying flood plain forming the southern end of the huge delta(s) that form(s) most of Bangladesh and West Bengal.

There is a huge system of bunds and water channels mostly dating from not just the British Raj but from long before that and developed further after indpendence in 1947. When I was there finding the money to maintain the system was a problem. It probably still is.

Who knows what the short and long-term effects of the storm surge and 300 mm of rainfall will be. More significant than the headlines of wind damage and immediate deaths.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on May 04, 2019, 10:36:14 PM
Their equipment broke down with the wind at 274 km/h . https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/odisha-death-toll-in-cyclone-fani-rises-to-16-puri-without-power-water/story-RyLL6QJqnqg9mKwz0ry6zK.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 21, 2019, 12:45:15 AM
Autobiographical/historical Twitter thread describes living through the storm surge and the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina near Mobile, Alabama. 
Quote
Gillis Jones (@Gillis57)5/19/19, 4:26 AM
I grew up in Mobile, Alabama. On the eastern wall of the eye of the hurricane. The eastern wall is (on the gulf) where the water gets pushed hardest into tributaries and waterways. They'd projected a direct NOLA hit, but it ended up landing nearer to Biloxi, which meant we got it
- By 'it', I mean the storm surge. This is what the storm surge looked like on the in downtown Mobile, which hardly ever really floods during a storm. We see and plan for storm surges actively. 6 inches here means our island has about 3-4 ft. here's two ft …
https://twitter.com/gillis57/status/1130026921050480641
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on May 21, 2019, 01:18:31 AM
Atlantic Hurricane Season Could Be Getting a Head Start This Week   
https://earther.gizmodo.com/atlantic-hurricane-season-could-be-getting-a-head-start-1834899526

... Right now, the storm is just a comma-shaped mess of thunderstorms swirling roughly 800 miles off Florida’s coast. But the National Hurricane Center said on Monday afternoon that “conditions are expected to be conducive for the formation of a subtropical or tropical cyclone later today or tonight.” The agency also said a Hurricane Hunter aircraft was en route to visit the disturbance and see how well-organized it was.

(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL012019_wind_probs_34_F120+png/222953.png)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/222953.shtml?tswind120#contents
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Rich on May 21, 2019, 02:08:15 AM
The storm now has a name....Andrea. Not forecast to do much, but season's under way.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 24, 2019, 12:06:36 AM
Dr. Rick Knabb on Twitter: "Should Atlantic #hurricane season start May 15? #Andrea makes it 6 storms during May 15-31 past 12 years, about every other year like long-term east Pac. But east Pac has late-May hurricane every ~4 years, Atlantic only 2 in past century & no hurricane landfall. June 1 works.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/drrickknabb/status/1131284374236925961
~ Bermuda Radar Loop at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on May 25, 2019, 02:49:05 AM
Climate Change is Destroying a Barrier That Protects the U.S. East Coast from Hurricanes 
https://m.phys.org/news/2019-05-climate-barrier-east-coast-hurricanes.html

A new paper, published today in Scientific Reports, finds that climate change could alter wind shear in a way that could deliver more powerful hurricanes to the East Coast. ... as hurricanes move northwestward out of the tropical Atlantic, a strong vertical wind shear along the East Coast prevents the storm from gaining strength, thus providing a protective barrier to strong landfalling hurricanes.

Ting and Kossin, along with Lamont researchers Suzana Camargo and Cuihua Li, used model simulations to examine the effects of climate change on hurricanes in the United States. The group found that these hurricanes will be affected in two different ways. As earlier studies have shown, rising sea surface temperatures will lead to an increase in hurricane intensity. But this study was the first to find that rising anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will weaken the vertical wind shear along the East Coast which will, in turn, enable further intensification of hurricanes that make landfall in this region.

"Once the natural protection is eroded by greenhouse gas warming, we may experience unprecedented hurricane intensification along the East Coast that can lead to stronger landfalling storms and higher storm surges in the future," Ting explains. "This is on top of the stronger tropical cyclone strength expected from the warmer sea surface temperature that we are already aware of. Home owners and policy makers have to take this into account when planning for coastal development and protections." 

Although climate change is typically a slow process, the models point to the possibility of these anthropogenic effects emerging quickly. One of the models with a larger number of simulations indicated that these effects could start to be seen around the year 2040. A timeline like that only gives us about 20 years to try to change course by taking actions to reduce climate change and, at the very least, prepare for more extreme weather events.

(https://www.nymetroweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/5.gif)

Open Access: Mingfang Ting et al. Past and Future Hurricane Intensity Change along the U.S. East Coast (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-44252-w), Scientific Reports (2019)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 01, 2019, 05:03:00 PM
Hurricanes to grow stronger:
https://www.news4jax.com/weather/east-coast-hurricane-landfalls-may-be-more-intense-with-climate-change
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Darvince on June 10, 2019, 03:15:58 AM
Cyclone Vayu is coming:

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc19/IO/93A.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20190609.2330.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.93AINVEST.30kts-1000mb-119N-714E.100pc.jpg

(https://i.imgur.com/YLgdov8.gif)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on June 10, 2019, 04:06:54 AM
Hurricanes to grow stronger:
https://www.news4jax.com/weather/east-coast-hurricane-landfalls-may-be-more-intense-with-climate-change
Actually, they said may grow stronger.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Rich on June 10, 2019, 04:48:36 AM
Hurricanes to grow stronger:
https://www.news4jax.com/weather/east-coast-hurricane-landfalls-may-be-more-intense-with-climate-change
Actually, they said may grow stronger.

According to the IPCC, formed storms are more likely to be stronger as a result of AGW.

Pretty obvious that a warmer ocean leads to stronger storms and a warmer atmosphere leads to wetter storms.

Voila, since 2016 we've had 17 global storms with sustained winds in excess of 150mph and epic rain bombs Harvey and Florence on top of that.

Earlier this decade, we've had two storms that belong on the Mt. Rushmore of tropical cyclones (Haiyan and Patricia).

Pretty damn clear what AGW is doing to storm intensity in general.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Rod on June 10, 2019, 04:58:25 AM
Don't waste your breath Rich.  Neven banned that guy last year.  His old handle was Daniel B. Hurricanes were his favorite topic.  He is not a dummy, but he is a troll. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Rich on June 10, 2019, 07:37:21 AM
What do you have to say for yourself Klondike Kat?

What's your mission here?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on June 10, 2019, 01:35:18 PM
Hurricanes to grow stronger:
https://www.news4jax.com/weather/east-coast-hurricane-landfalls-may-be-more-intense-with-climate-change
Actually, they said may grow stronger.

According to the IPCC, formed storms are more likely to be stronger as a result of AGW.

Pretty obvious that a warmer ocean leads to stronger storms and a warmer atmosphere leads to wetter storms.

Voila, since 2016 we've had 17 global storms with sustained winds in excess of 150mph and epic rain bombs Harvey and Florence on top of that.

Earlier this decade, we've had two storms that belong on the Mt. Rushmore of tropical cyclones (Haiyan and Patricia).

Pretty damn clear what AGW is doing to storm intensity in general.

Warmer oceans are likely to set the stage for more tropical development.  However, cyclone strength is determined largely by wind shear.  This is what the article was implying.  While models indicate that an increase is likely, recent studies linking hurricane activity with global warming have found no connection.

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Rich on June 10, 2019, 02:05:41 PM
Hurricanes to grow stronger:
https://www.news4jax.com/weather/east-coast-hurricane-landfalls-may-be-more-intense-with-climate-change
Actually, they said may grow stronger.

According to the IPCC, formed storms are more likely to be stronger as a result of AGW.

Pretty obvious that a warmer ocean leads to stronger storms and a warmer atmosphere leads to wetter storms.

Voila, since 2016 we've had 17 global storms with sustained winds in excess of 150mph and epic rain bombs Harvey and Florence on top of that.

Earlier this decade, we've had two storms that belong on the Mt. Rushmore of tropical cyclones (Haiyan and Patricia).

Pretty damn clear what AGW is doing to storm intensity in general.

Warmer oceans are likely to set the stage for more tropical development.  However, cyclone strength is determined largely by wind shear.  This is what the article was implying.  While models indicate that an increase is likely, recent studies linking hurricane activity with global warming have found no connection.

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

You are linking to a report which is confirming EVERYTHING I spelled out in my previous post.

Tropical cyclones becoming more intense, wetter and more frequently becoming Cat 4 / 5.

You still didn't answer my question. Why do you come to ASIF? How does this tie in with your purpose in life?

You've been accused by others of being a troll. You should have the opportunity to respond to that.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bligh8 on June 10, 2019, 02:44:11 PM
Spot on reply Rich....thanks

Just so there's no confusion higher water temps are what's driving this rapid intensification of these storms.  Wind sheer will halt development or knock the top off and allow the storm to walk away at a greater pace.

40ft sea's and dark alleys don't scare me.....but all this hot water in the N. Atlantic scares the hell out of me.     
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 10, 2019, 04:20:54 PM
Any chance of a hypercane in a few centuries?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bligh8 on June 10, 2019, 05:09:13 PM
I live at what was ground zero for Sandy....if one listens closely they'll hear a collective sigh of relief once Sept/Oct have passed without incident.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on June 10, 2019, 05:25:09 PM
Hurricanes to grow stronger:
https://www.news4jax.com/weather/east-coast-hurricane-landfalls-may-be-more-intense-with-climate-change
Actually, they said may grow stronger.

According to the IPCC, formed storms are more likely to be stronger as a result of AGW.

Pretty obvious that a warmer ocean leads to stronger storms and a warmer atmosphere leads to wetter storms.

Voila, since 2016 we've had 17 global storms with sustained winds in excess of 150mph and epic rain bombs Harvey and Florence on top of that.

Earlier this decade, we've had two storms that belong on the Mt. Rushmore of tropical cyclones (Haiyan and Patricia).

Pretty damn clear what AGW is doing to storm intensity in general.

Warmer oceans are likely to set the stage for more tropical development.  However, cyclone strength is determined largely by wind shear.  This is what the article was implying.  While models indicate that an increase is likely, recent studies linking hurricane activity with global warming have found no connection.

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

You are linking to a report which is confirming EVERYTHING I spelled out in my previous post.

Tropical cyclones becoming more intense, wetter and more frequently becoming Cat 4 / 5.

You still didn't answer my question. Why do you come to ASIF? How does this tie in with your purpose in life?

You've been accused by others of being a troll. You should have the opportunity to respond to that.

Did you even read the link?  The only observed connection between warmer waters and tropical cyclones is increased rainfall.  "Our regional model projects that Atlantic hurricane and tropical storms are substantially reduced in number, for the average 21st century climate change projected by current models, but have higher rainfall rates, particularly near the storm center."

The rest is pure conjecture. 

As to your question, I come here to learn about the scientist.  I am tired of all the pseudo-science and political mumbo jumbo that so many spread of the extremists (on both sides) spread.  If I have been accuse of being a troll (this is the first I have heard of it), then at least I will be a scientifically-informed troll.  Much better than the alternative.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tim on June 10, 2019, 05:53:20 PM
Klondike Kat, you seem to like to omit a lot of things, isolate certain points while being guilty of omission. I find you to be like a subtle doubt merchant more than any sort of legitimate skeptical thinker, which is how you like to present yourself.

You claim to know a lot about hurricanes, but you just mentioned shear, when Michael last fall rapidly intensified in a high shear environment, which confounded the historical ideas of a lot of experts in the field.

You also ignore the way these systems are both stalling, and also steering differently, due to the changes AGW has produced in jetstream behavior, which is also noted by hurricane experts. I called you out on your omission of that once before here. Think ... Flo last fall and the Carolina's, stalling, and steering, from noted and observable jetstream changes.

You don't seem that up on hurricanes. I find you to just be a doubt merchant, not a legitimate skeptic. You omit a lot of things to make points in very isolated contexts, and I find that disingenuous. Yes, just an intentional doubt merchant, grasping at straws in isolation through a lot of omission and placing things outside of their larger context a lot.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on June 10, 2019, 06:15:17 PM
Klondike Kat, you seem to like to omit a lot of things, isolate certain points while being guilty of omission. I find you to be like a subtle doubt merchant more than any sort of legitimate skeptical thinker, which is how you like to present yourself.

You claim to know a lot about hurricanes, but you just mentioned shear, when Michael last fall rapidly intensified in a high shear environment, which confounded the historical ideas of a lot of experts in the field.

You also ignore the way these systems are both stalling, and also steering differently, due to the changes AGW has produced in jetstream behavior, which is also noted by hurricane experts. I called you out on your omission of that once before here. Think ... Flo last fall and the Carolina's, stalling, and steering, from noted and observable jetstream changes.

You don't seem that up on hurricanes. I find you to just be a doubt merchant, not a legitimate skeptic. You omit a lot of things to make points in very isolated contexts, and I find that disingenuous. Yes, just an intentional doubt merchant, grasping at straws in isolation through a lot of omission and placing things outside of their larger context a lot.

Just because one hurricane was able to intensify in the face of higher wind shear does not discount the overall effect of wind shear on hurricane strengthening.  You seem to be guilty of exactly what you accuse me of doing - omitting certain key points.  If you read my post carefully, I noted the increased rainfall that has been observed in connection with changing weather patterns.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tim on June 10, 2019, 06:22:48 PM
The point was, you try to discount AGW effects through a great deal of omission when you present your arguments. It's pretty obvious to see what your intention is here at ASIF. That was my point.

You try to create a sense that hurricane behavior is not actually changing much, by omitting most of the ways they are being observed to be changing when you make points in isolation.

Your arguments you make here are clearly specious in their nature, dishonest. You're here to obfuscate science, that's pretty clear from watching you make your arguments against climate science here (which is what you do, even though you say you don't.)

A troll.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tim on June 10, 2019, 06:57:59 PM
Here's how you like to phrase things:

"... linking hurricane activity with global warming have found no connection."

Would you like to talk about the jet stream, AGW, and hurricanes?

Jennifer Francis had some thoughts about it's influence on Florence last fall.

You would be laughed off Dr. Masters site for the ignorance you spew about there being no connection between AGW and hurricane behavior, which is what you're arguing hard to try and imply here.

You're just a subtle doubt merchant dude, and it's annoying to watch you do it. Desperately trying to show how it's not happening with most everything you post.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on June 10, 2019, 07:41:29 PM
Here's how you like to phrase things:

"... linking hurricane activity with global warming have found no connection."

Would you like to talk about the jet stream, AGW, and hurricanes?

Jennifer Francis had some thoughts about it's influence on Florence last fall.

You would be laughed off Dr. Masters site for the ignorance you spew about there being no connection between AGW and hurricane behavior, which is what you're arguing hard to try and imply here.

You're just a subtle doubt merchant dude, and it's annoying to watch you do it. Desperately trying to show how it's not happening with most everything you post.

Sorry if I prefer solid research over speculation.  We scientists rely on statistical methods to show connections.  Absent that standard, we can make speculations, but not definitive statements.  Could a warmer climate be influencing hurricane behavior?  Sure.  Is it?  We have no concrete evidence.

This is what the scientists at the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) state,   
"Through research, GFDL scientists have concluded that it is premature to attribute past changes in hurricane activity to greenhouse warming"

While models and simulations have shown the likelihood of increases, they have not been observed to date.

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/hurricanes-and-climate-change/

The full text of the previous paper states:

"Opinion on the author team was divided on whether any observed TC (tropical cyclone) changes demonstrate discernible anthropogenic influence, or whether any other observed changes represent detectable changes"

and

"The relatively low confidence in TC change detection results from several factors, including: observational limitations, the smallness of the expected human-caused change (signal) relative to the expected natural variability (noise), or the lack of confident estimates of the expected signal and noise levels."

I repeat, the claim is not that there is no link.  Rather, that it cannot be detected in the evidence to date.  Whether you call that doubt or truth, is your choice.  I have made mine.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tim on June 10, 2019, 08:04:02 PM
So now you change your story from a very solidly stated 'no connection' to 'too early to make one very specific procedural conclusion, a long term statistical one' ... admitting now that there are observed changes, they just haven't been observed for long enough.

But that's very different from what you first tried to BS us with, which is that there was 'no connection,' implied in a context that there have been no observed changes whatsoever. I know it's subtle, but this is what you do here on this site. You spin things.

That was my point, your here to support the denialists. Same goes with all the other Cato Institute arguments you present here on this site, ad nauseam.  You spin, is what you do, heavily.

We scientists, you say. What, are you a dentist or something? Don't flatter yourself.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on June 10, 2019, 09:30:36 PM
I see.  Basically, whenever you disagree with someone you resort to calling them a BSer, troll or denier, rather than entertaining the possibility that you could be wrong.  I did not change my story.  That is your twist on the subject.  All I did was expound on my claim of no connection, to include the possibility that a connection may exist, but cannot be identified in the current data.  That is called good science, not dentistry. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tim on June 10, 2019, 09:51:07 PM
No, it's what the politicians and economists have asked for as a stalling tactic for thirty years ... more evidence ... while they delayed and blew past the chance for anybody to do anything about it, where the scientists were quite sure of what they were seeing. Extremely long term statistical evidence is just one singular line of reasoning.  For some people, they could still be asking in a thousand years for more statistical evidence. It's a ruse, and supports the, oh, it will change back argument that people like Trump make.

You'll notice that when it comes to spraying chemicals around, or damning a river, that there's no need to bother with long term statistical evidence in your society. They just spray it. It's a ruse. Your whole tact here is to obfuscate what science is certain of. Quit trying to present yourself as rational. You're need for never ending statistical evidence is called prolonging the debate, a well known doubt merchant strategy, whether you are aware of yourself doing it or not.

The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift. - A. Einstein
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tim on June 10, 2019, 09:57:30 PM
And you did backpedal when confronted. Walked straight backwards and backed off of what you were trying to shmeeb with your doublespeak. It's a smarmy way to be.

Meanwhile, your country is drowning, and burning, and getting blown away. It's absurd what you do here on this site with your stream of contrary arguments.

But whatever. Knowing you were banned before brings some solace. Not sure why you aren't banned again, you definitely just bring obfuscation to the subject of AGW.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: sidd on June 10, 2019, 11:57:06 PM
The difficulty with hurricane/cyclone numbers is that there are too few of them to give statistically robust results. Right now the consensus seems to be that there will be an increase in intensity, but not necessarily an increase in the number.

As for the models, they do not have the resolution to effectively simulate processes within a hurricane. Some techniques such as downscaling make the attempt, but there are questions as to their effectiveness.

Aside: Accusations of trolling and denial do not advance the discussion. I reply in another thread.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1562.msg204822.html#msg204822

sidd
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tim on June 11, 2019, 12:34:40 AM
Neither does constantly making tobacco industry style arguments advance the discussion of AGW.

No knowledge base is ever complete. Sometimes, when considering the risks of not acting, we quite often act after just enough information has been gathered to make a reasonably informed decision. That's what eventually happened in the tobacco debacle.

I'm on a tropical weather blog every day, and there's enough evidence gathered to make some reasonably informed conclusions about recent hurricane behavior, especially considering the pace at which climate change is accelerating and the fact that we don't have the luxury of studying this forever before 'noticing.' We also do a lot of things with gravity without having a complete understanding of that either.

In fact we move forward on many things in science confidently, with only cursory information to inform our decisions. Haven't you noticed how with climate change, there's a stall tactic by asking for more and more ... and ever more ... absolutely conclusive evidence before acting? Which is a tactic the tobacco defendants (some of them scientists) put forth to stall action on tobacco as well?

I'm surprised to see you defending such a tactic. People who watch tropical weather closely, along with other connected meteorology, definitely know some things have changed recently, with lot's of atmospheric connections to back up those observations.

I would say some of the institutions embedded within certain particular countries and cultures have been pushed into taking an unusually conservative stance on what they will say. They wouldn't want to be axed completely after all. Their official statements can often differ what the people actually doing the looking are seeing.

Anyway. Complain away in defense of your denier friend.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: wili on June 11, 2019, 12:38:32 AM
"...there will be an increase in intensity, but not necessarily an increase in the number..."

That's my understanding of the current science, but I'm be happy to look at any new studies that say otherwise.

I do wonder whether we are conflating hurricanes and cyclones, here. (Mostly North) Atlantic hurricanes are more subject to the destructive (to hurricanes) effects of windshear, as I understand it. Pacific and Indian Ocean typhoons/cyclones are less likely to be so affected, so they are likely to increase both in intensity and frequency.

But again, I haven't looked at the very latest science on this. Are there new developments?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tim on June 11, 2019, 12:52:02 AM
That's what I took Klondike Kat to task about once before on this site wili, was for pointing only to frequency, while conveniently omitting the observations being made about other changes to storms recently observed, and using only frequency to support a conclusion that there are no changes to storms related to climate change (because he only discussed frequency, and then drew that into a more general conclusion, a pretty definitive one.)

And are we to not look at May's ice behavior, or June's? Because I don't think there's a published research paper out about May or June's ice melt behavior yet. No, we look at the observations, here on this site, long before those papers come out, just like tropical weather analysts are able to do. So let's get real. Is there official papers out about the ice melt? Should we not make observations then?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Rich on June 11, 2019, 01:07:31 AM
It is the denier playbook to sew doubt where they can and they seize on the small number of major tropical.cyclones as their weapon. Not enough to provide a statistical sample, they say.

This despite the overwhelmingly cogent scientific argument that AGW should increase storm intensity (wind speed and precipitation).

We know that AGW is making the ocean and air warmer.
We know that a warm ocean is is a prerequisite for a major hurricane.
We know that warm air holds more water vapor.
We have paleo evidence of massive boulders being moved great distances which can only be explained by storms much larger than those we see today at times when the earth was warmer.

We have an overwhelming amount of anecdotal evidence in front of us supporting the very simple expectation that storms will get more intense and wetter as the planet heats up. In a court of law, we are way beyond the threshold of reasonable doubt.

The thickening GHG blanket is guilty.

There is no cogent explanation for why storms would not get stronger.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tim on June 11, 2019, 01:24:38 AM
And I would add changes to the jetstream as another thing that's influencing storm activity ... already. Here's some science from Dr. Jennifer Frances discussing this regarding Florence last year, which didn't turn north when traditional meteorology would've thought it should have, and stalled it in place for awhile even, because of a blocking high in the Atlantic that was present due to the changes we should all be familiar with regarding the jetsream, it's increased amplitude and slower movement, and the resilient ridges it's been forming on either side of North America recently, a direct result of climate change.

Just talking frequency, and arguing people aren't seeing changes ... currently ... is a red herring. People are watching meteorology you know, just like how people here watch the ice. If you are close to the data, you are familiar with things long before someone publishes a research paper about them, if they even ever do about a particular event sometimes.

Jetstream, jetstream, jetstream. Those of us who follow weather data as closely as people here follow the ice didn't even need Dr. Francis to tell us about this. We watched it happen ourselves, in real time, and knew exactly what we were looking at, and where that resilient jetstream ridge in the Atlantic came from, and why it was there, and what it was connected to, and how it was affecting Florence. Then we watched Florence stall over Carolina, and even turn south a little, as it tried to find a way around that high, all because of the recently changed jetstream.

https://thinkprogress.org/global-warming-double-whammy-may-be-steering-florence-into-the-carolinas-says-researcher-e125cad60819/

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 11, 2019, 01:34:04 AM


Aside: Accusations of trolling and denial do not advance the discussion. I reply in another thread.



While I have some suspicions about the motives of some who comment here, it serves no purpose to argue. Present your argument, backed up with links, and move on.

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tim on June 11, 2019, 01:44:04 AM


Aside: Accusations of trolling and denial do not advance the discussion. I reply in another thread.



While I have some suspicions about the motives of some who comment here, it serves no purpose to argue. Present your argument, backed up with links, and move on.

I disagree. The struggle to address climate change has turned out to be a social problem. It's the last thing there is to actually tackle about it, the thing hanging us up.

Yet when you point out the social problem, it makes people uncomfortable. I would say that's why we are were we are. My biggest interest in this subject is about solving the social problem that's hanging us up. Shoving more data at people certainly hasn't done anything for thirty years ... because it's a social problem. That's what needs to be pointed to. But I realize it's foreign to our culture to do this. I point to the social problem when I see it. And typically get this same response.

It's no different than pointing out the bad arguments of a creationist, which also makes some people uncomfortable, all because it's an ingrained social taboo.
.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on June 11, 2019, 02:01:04 AM


Aside: Accusations of trolling and denial do not advance the discussion. I reply in another thread.



While I have some suspicions about the motives of some who comment here, it serves no purpose to argue. Present your argument, backed up with links, and move on.

I disagree. The struggle to address climate change has turned out to be a social problem. It's the last thing there is to actually tackle about it, the thing hanging us up.

Yet when you point out the social problem, it makes people uncomfortable. I would say that's why we are were we are. My biggest interest in this subject is about solving the social problem that's hanging us up. Shoving more data at people certainly hasn't done anything for thirty years ... because it's a social problem. That's what needs to be pointed to. But I realize it's foreign to our culture to do this. I point to the social problem when I see it. And typically get this same response.

It's no different than pointing out the bad arguments of a creationist.
.

I agree with SH.  If we disregard sound science, in favor of social action, we run the risk of appearing just like those who ignore the consequences of climate change.  If you put forward an argument that cannot be backed with sound science, you are no better than those who you are trying to condemn.  Worst of all, the public will view both arguments as extremism, discounting both as folly.  If you truly wish to confront the social problem, then stick to the facts (there are plenty of them).  Every time you present a projection that fails to materialize, you are placing another nail in your coffin for your opponent to hit.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tim on June 11, 2019, 02:06:12 AM
I'm not talking about social action. I was pointing out social dysfunction. You don't present facts, you isolate information and compartmentalize it into silos, ignoring other connected observations and omitting 'facts' heavily when you make your many specious arguments here on the site ... all always leading to the same conclusion, to underplay climate change.

That's what I was calling you out for. You don't present science, you intentionally misrepresent it.

Like with your frequency red herring.
.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 11, 2019, 02:36:29 AM



Aside: Accusations of trolling and denial do not advance the discussion. I reply in another thread.



While I have some suspicions about the motives of some who comment here, it serves no purpose to argue. Present your argument, backed up with links, and move on.

I agree with SH.  If we disregard sound science, in favor of social action, we run the risk of appearing just like those who ignore the consequences of climate change.  If you put forward an argument that cannot be backed with sound science, you are no better than those who you are trying to condemn.  Worst of all, the public will view both arguments as extremism, discounting both as folly.  If you truly wish to confront the social problem, then stick to the facts (there are plenty of them).  Every time you present a projection that fails to materialize, you are placing another nail in your coffin for your opponent to hit.

You say you agree with what I said and then compose a paragraph proving the opposite.

For the record and in the interest of full disclosure, what you have just done here is what causes me to be suspicious of the motives of some who come here.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 11, 2019, 02:42:41 AM
I know KK is an optimist...I used to be one myself (and occasionally still am). I don't know if he is a deliberate troll, but I don't know if he is not. Tim seems to give good arguments. But I hope this diversion ends.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: sidd on June 11, 2019, 02:44:53 AM
Re: "conflating hurricanes and cyclones"

There are studies that look at hurricanes/cyclones/typhoons in all basins. The advantage to doing so is that there are more of them that hurricanes in the Atlantic alone. But the numbers are still low, and no trend in the total number is evident. So far.  There is some evidence that the intensity of the largest ones is increasing, as is expected from warmer SSTs. The models still have difficulty in getting hurricanes right but perhaps CMIP6 will have better results.

sidd
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Bruce Steele on June 11, 2019, 03:20:38 AM
Re. Social dysfunction. Rather than taking each other at face value or looking for veiled motives it is first important to discuss goals. If we had agreed upon goals then we might judge solutions in their potential for progress.
 I don't think many people are willing to do what is necessary but then I assume we all agree that bringing CO2 levels back into the 350 ppm levels is a priority ( goal )
 We live in an age of excesses , we live beyond our means. Very very few privileged members of society are willing to accept less . We are going to live in our large homes, drive fast cars , fly , and live a life of excess till the system collapses. Yes I believe in collapse. If I saw anything in society that looked like frugality(  ... abstemiousness; asceticism, Spartanism, frugality, parsimony, economy, simple life, plain living, plainness, ... golden mean I Moderation 521 4 calmness, composure, lack of emotion, stoicism, keeping a stiff ...)  was currently considered a virtue I would have a different opinion .
Sorry Sidd and Tom for dragging this back OT . Hurricane season is rather dull right now .
 The goal of saving the planet is simply overridden by our vices, wishes and laziness. The goal requires something like a two ton CO2 emissions per annum limit for every human . The rest is just rationalizing or postponing the inevitable.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Rich on June 11, 2019, 03:44:14 AM
There is some evidence that the intensity of the largest ones is increasing, as is expected from warmer SSTs.

There isn't "some" evidence....there is a lot of evidence.

Once again....

17 storms since 2016 w/ sustained winds >= 150 mph.
Wettest storm in US history (Harvey)
Wettest US storm north of Florida (Florence)
Wettest storm in Hawaiian history (Lane)
Highest wind speed storm globally (Patricia)
Dvorak Scale breaker....8.1 on an 8.0 scale and most powerful landfalling cyclone ever (Haiyan)
Record breaking S. Hemisphere cyclone (Idai)

Outside of the pure tropical storms, we had a record bombogenesis event in the Atlantic the winter before last. We had a record bombogenesis event in the US plains this winter.

We are living in an an era of unprecedented big storm activity in the era of record keeping.

Statistician's want large sample sizes to reach conclusions and tropical storms don't offer that. In the absence of large numbers we're left with common sense to guide us.

There is an abundance of evidence in front of us.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: wili on June 11, 2019, 03:45:54 AM
Sidd wrote: "... intensity of the largest ones is increasing..." Yes, that's my understanding of it, and also as I recall that is what the latest models predict for the future.

Bruce--insightful and well said, as always! :)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on June 11, 2019, 03:50:58 AM
Quote
While models and simulations have shown the likelihood of increases, they have not been observed to date.

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/hurricanes-and-climate-change/

What a load of BS.

The information in that page related to the statistical analysis of Atlantic hurricanes is outdated by more than a decade!

It completely misses the hottest years of record and the most destructive. It completely misses the phenomenon of rapid amplification we have seen for the last few years. It completely misses the wetness experienced during in Harvey or the incredibly crazy year of 2017.

KkK and cowards like him are counting on the increased hurricane frequency and intensity to go back down to 20th century levels. Fools. The warming will continue. So will the increase in hurricane frequency and intensity.  Can there be a lull? sure, but that likelihood is decreasing as temperatures increase.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Rod on June 11, 2019, 03:52:14 AM
I do not pretend to have any expertise on hurricanes.  However, I have noticed the discussion has focused on Atlantic hurricanes. 

It is my understanding the two hurricanes that hit Mozambique this year were unpresidented, I am also pretty sure that in February we had the first ever category 5 hurricane that formed (in the Pacific) that early north of the equator. 

Those seem to be some additional important facts to add to this discussion.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tim on June 11, 2019, 03:59:54 AM
Thanks Bruce for you thoughts.

I didn't see my discussion as being so OT. I pointed out a pretty definitive effect from climate change last year in an effort to point out how only looking in isolation at how many hurricanes there are is dishonest and an example of dysfunction.

If you don't think temperatures have risen, then you don't think arctic amplification has occurred, then you don't think the the jetsream has changed, then you don't think that changed jetstream caused the blocking pattern which definitely affected Florence last year in a very empirical way.

If you intentionally ignore all that, and make a red herring argument based on the one thing that hasn't changed about these storms ... their frequency, how many there have been ... then yes, in that red herring silo you can then say that hurricanes have shown no changes due to climate change. Someone even published a paper about that a few years ago, pointing only to frequency and concluding that therefore ... no changes due to climate change (a particularly renowned meteorologist climate change denier published it.)

But that's dishonest, it ignores all those other empirical observations that have been made, and I gave a link to a pretty renowned scientist discussing those observed empirical effects. That's the social dysfunction I in particular was pointing out, is the omission of pertinent information to the argument in question, that climate change is not influencing hurricanes, except only through speculation about the future, and not in any current observations.

It's typically when I speak up, is when someone tries to peddle some BS like that through omission.

And still people veer back to frequency. I guess this is not a site for discussing hurricanes, except maybe as a rubbernecking sort of sport.

No worries. I presented what I did about Florence, which I didn't think was so OT. Oh wait, I guess it was, because that was last year.  :D

Thanks again Bruce, I didn't disagree with anything else you said, just about being OT when I corrected someone's specious red herring. Poor arguments shouldn't be tolerated, especially when they seem to be an attempt to intentionally mislead. So, I countered the argument, and pointed out how it was disingenuous and specious, which I find dysfunctional, and presented some sound evidence of climate change affecting a hurricane last year.

But I'll leave you guys to your hurricane discussions now. Enjoy.   ;)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Bruce Steele on June 11, 2019, 04:15:23 AM
I think Wili is as close to the 2 ton goal as anyone else here on the forum . If we had a carbon count on contributors we might have a better guide to who is earnest and who is full of it. Talking science , even great climate science , is only entertainment otherwise.
 P.S. The swallows did return and are sitting eggs right now.

https://www.artvilla.com/man-in-the-sun-poem-by-charles-bukowski/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Rod on June 11, 2019, 04:39:45 AM
They are serving drinks in the Nares Strait thread.  I'm buying one for Tim and Bruce.  We all get stressed as hell when the ice looks so bad this time of the year. 

Hopefully we have more time and we can fix the problems.  If not cheers 🍺  It has been nice knowing everyone. 

Personally, I think we have not yet hit the disaster button, but I think it is getting close! 
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tim on June 11, 2019, 04:42:09 AM
Well Bruce, I don't see how that's pertinent, what with the 7 billion other people on the planet not on this forum.

But if it interests you, I don't have a bank account, or participate in the economy, or work for a corporation, or participate in consumerism ... or fly, or go out for dinner, or eat meat, or have a retirement in the stock market or the banking system for them to do their thing with ... and etc, etc, etc ... sacrifice ... all starting way back twenty five years ago. I left civilization a long long time ago. I've done more than most people I meet do to not feed the beast out of fear for themselves.

But what does any of that matter? That doesn't do anything to change the wider cultural dysfunction, or people who try to argue that there isn't even a problem. That's why I was speaking up. Against the counter-productive BS'ing about there not even being a problem to solve.

Cheers Bruce. I kind of like how you think. Drinks! But I don't drink.  :-[
.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Bruce Steele on June 11, 2019, 05:11:09 AM
Tim, The choices we make as individuals does affect society at large just as society affects the individual.
 How we communicate our concern for the enviornment based on sound science is I believe far more convincing if it is mirrored in how we live our lives.
 
   
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tim on June 11, 2019, 05:16:36 AM
Very good Bruce. Regarding the birds, I have a family of Magpies teaching their young how to fly right now outside of my window. They like being around my place, because they know it's a safe place for them, and that I'm not going to kill them. That's my best reflection of how I live my own life regarding the biosphere. The biosphere likes me, and certainly isn't trying to kill me.

Hahahahaha.

Cheers Bruce. You seem like a good being.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: KiwiGriff on June 11, 2019, 07:56:41 AM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.realclimate.org%2Fimages%2FEmanuel.jpg&hash=4b1f23eef48feb87acd8cc212a1e7130)


Percentage increase 1980 to 2016 (as a linear trend) in the number of tropical storms worldwide depending on their strength. Only 95% significant trends are shown. The strongest storms are also increasing the most. Red colors show the hurricane category on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Graph by Kerry Emanuel, MIT. Creative Commons License CC BY-SA 3.0.

Quote
A significant global increase (95% significance level) can be found in all storms with maximum wind speeds from 175 km/h. Storms of 200 km/h and more have doubled in number, and those of 250 km/h and more have tripled. Although some of the trend may be owing to improved observation techniques, this provides some evidence that a global increase in the most intense tropical storms due to global warming is not just predicted by models but already happening.

However, global warming does not only increase the wind speed or frequency of strong storms (which is actually two ways of looking at the same phenomenon, as frequency depends on wind speed).  The average location where the storms are reaching their peak intensity is also slowly migrating poleward (Kossin et al. 2014) and the area where storms occur expands (Benestad 2009, Lucas et al. 2014), which changes patterns of storm risk and increases risk in regions that are historically less threatened by these storms (Kossin et al. 2016).

Most damage caused by tropical storms is not directly caused by the wind, but by water: rain from above, storm surge from the sea. Harvey brought the largest amounts of rain in US history – the probability of such a rain event has increased several times over  recent decades due to global warming (Emanuel 2017; Risser and Wehner, 2017; van Oldenborgh et al., 2017). Not least due to global warming, sea levels are rising at an accelerating rate and storm surges are becoming more dangerous. A recent study (Garner et al. 2017), for example, shows that the return period of a certain storm surge height in New York City will be reduced from 25 years today to 5 years within the next three decades. Therefore, storm surge barriers are the subject of intensive discussion in New York (Rahmstorf 2017).

While there may not yet be a “smoking gun” – a single piece of evidence that removes all doubt – the weight of the evidence suggests that the thirty-year-old prediction of more intense and wetter tropical cyclones is coming to pass. This is a risk that we can no longer afford to ignore.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/05/does-global-warming-make-tropical-cyclones-stronger/

My view of KK is as an optimist rather than a straight out denier.
I view my self as a realist though you can call me a pessimist '
Climate change  is a matter if risk. It far better to eer on the side of caution  when so much is at stake.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on June 11, 2019, 08:16:30 AM
Current storm information (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/).
Quote
02A VAYU
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 11, 2019:

Location: 14.7°N 70.6°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 988 mb
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on June 11, 2019, 12:27:40 PM

My view of KK is as an optimist rather than a straight out denier.


Whatever he is, his posts have one effect, best described by Tolstoy:

Quote
"At the advent of danger there are always two voices that speak with equal force in the human heart: one very reasonably invites a man to consider the nature of the peril and the means of escaping it; the other, with a still greater show of reason, argues that it is too depressing and painful to think of the danger since it is not in man's power to foresee everything and avert the general march of events, and it is better therefore to shut one's eyes to the disagreeable until it actually comes, and to think instead of what is pleasant. When a man is alone he generally listens to the first voice; in the company of his fellow-men, to the second."
- Tolstoy, War and Peace.

People like KkK roam the IPCC, the science academies and the internet, pretending to be the voice of reason. Calm, collected, quoting out of context and outdated cherry picks that reassures everyone that there is no danger. And everyone gladly accepts it because it is what they want to hear.

It is not the truth. It places us on great danger, but it feels so nice and comfy.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 11, 2019, 01:12:34 PM
I agree with Tom and Kiwi. This all can be explained by (misguided) optimism. Kat has to be given the benefit of the doubt.

That said, i wonder when this thread will calm down and goes on topic again. Endless debates of who might be a troll are tiring and aren't helpful.

If someone thinks someone isn't suited for this forum, isn't the way to go to bring it to Nevens attention? He has shown to act accordingly when the concerns are grounded in reality.

Can we please stop accusing and insulting other members now?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tim on June 11, 2019, 03:12:12 PM
I agree with Tom and Kiwi. This all can be explained by (misguided) optimism. Kat has to be given the benefit of the doubt.

That said, i wonder when this thread will calm down and goes on topic again. Endless debates of who might be a troll are tiring and aren't helpful.

If someone thinks someone isn't suited for this forum, isn't the way to go to bring it to Nevens attention? He has shown to act accordingly when the concerns are grounded in reality.

Can we please stop accusing and insulting other members now?

So correcting completely false information with a rebuttal and more accurate information and empirical observations from actual science instead of ten year old cherry picked papaers is off topic?

You people here prefer false information, and don't want it to be rebutted with real observations then?

I see what the problem is. Carry on with your garbage information sharing then.

This place is turning out to be a ridiculous joke.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 11, 2019, 03:24:03 PM
Tim, I sympathize. But are both KK and you going to insist on having the last word? If so, by the end of the year this thread will have 1,000 posts, 450 from you and 450 from KK.
When I started here, a couple bullies ganged up on me. I defended myself a little while, and then just dropped it (and nearly dropped ASIF, BTW). If you think KK is unsuitable for this forum, tell neven. But you have controverted KK's posts several times each, isn't that enough? If KK makes another post you disagree with, controvert that one, but let the old ones go.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 11, 2019, 03:32:33 PM
The rebuttal is fine, Tim. (Even though i would argue against even that, but that's another topic entirely).

You did way more than only pointing out your arguments though. There was some name calling as well. If you can't make your argument without that, your opinion is valued less. This hurts your right cause and your valid arguments. This is not what you want either.

You pointed out a social problem before. Bad communication is also a social problem.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tim on June 11, 2019, 03:33:25 PM
No Tom. I can't support a site that backs flagrant liars. You guys keep your klondike kat, people like me will just leave. I don't want to read anti-science. That's the result you get when nobody corrects someone like  that and their intentional obfuscation game, you get to keep the liar, and the people who actually follow science closely will just leave.

This is not a good place to go for climate discussion when you have to wade through garbage and misinformation from weirdos with an agenda. I'll go elsewhere.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 11, 2019, 03:47:07 PM
Well, Tim, in that case I will miss you. I did not object to your calling out what you see as a piece of disinformation. I objected to you calling it out and calling it out and calling it out...
I wish you luck in finding a forum that meets your criteria. But if you do, I fear you will just be preaching to the choir.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: oren on June 11, 2019, 04:07:59 PM
Tim, bear in mind most of us are intelligent enough to see through false arguments and cherry picking and all that. The fact that someone posts something doesn't make it automatically accepted by the whole forum, especially if that someone is known to have a bias in a certain direction. Also bear in mind some people will always have the last word and will never admit to being wrong, having a back and forth argument is detrimental to the forum and increasing the influence of the very posts you want to prevent.
The best tactic is hit and run. Refute once, and let the readers make up their mind.
If you can't abide reading posts you think are wrong and/or misleading, it's an easy thing to add someone to your blocked list. Otherwise, deep breaths and calming exercises can do a lot of good. If you catch someone posting straight denier stuff, report to Neven and it's bye-bye and sigh of relief. This is how "Daniel B." went away.
I wish you'd stay. But if you'd rather be in a pure environment, maybe indeed this is not the place.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: P-maker on June 11, 2019, 05:04:46 PM
It takes some garbage to recycle good ideas ;o)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: magnamentis on June 11, 2019, 07:23:04 PM

It is my understanding the two hurricanes that hit Mozambique this year were unprecedented, I am also pretty sure that in February we had the first ever category 5 hurricane that formed (in the Pacific) that early north of the equator. 

The only difference between a hurricane and a typhoon is the location where the storm occurs.

In the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific, the term hurricane is used. The same type of disturbance in the Northwest Pacific is called a typhoon. Meanwhile, in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean, the generic term tropical cyclone is used

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/cyclone.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: sidd on June 12, 2019, 02:20:11 AM
Preprint from Knutson et al on tropical cyclone activity and anthro climate change, focussing on twin goals of reducing "Type I errors (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence or detection)" and reducing " Type II errors (i.e., missing or understating anthropogenic influence or detection)"

It's a nice review article among other things.

"Summary ...

"Using the conventional perspective of avoiding Type I error, the strongest case for a detectable change in TC activity is the observed poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the northwest Pacific basin, with eight of 11 authors rating the observed change as low-to- medium confidence for detection (with one other author having medium and two other authors having medium-to-high confidence). A slight majority of authors (six of 11) had only low confidence that anthropogenic forcing had contributed to the poleward shift. The majority of the author team also had only low confidence that any other observed TC changes represented either detectable changes or attributable anthropogenic changes. From the perspective of reducing Type II errors, a majority of the author team agreed on a number of more speculative TC detection and/or attribution statements, which we recognize have substantial potential for being false alarms (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence) but which may be indicators of emerging anthropogenic signals in the data. Most authors agreed that the balance of evidence suggests detectable anthropogenic contributions to:

i) the poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the western North Pacific;
ii) increased occurrence of extremely severe (post-monsoon season) cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea;
iii) increased global average intensity of the strongest TCs since early 1980s;
iv) increase in global proportion of TCs reaching Category 4 or 5 intensity in recent decades; and
v) increased frequency of Hurricane Harvey-like extreme precipitation events in the Texas (U.S.) region.

In addition, a majority of authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggested an anthropogenic influence (without detection) on:
vi) the unusually active TC season in the western North Pacific in 2015. Author opinion was divided but a slight majority concluded that:
vii) unusually high TC frequency near Hawaii in 2014 was a case where the balance of evidence suggested an anthropogenic influence (without detection).

Finally, most authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggests:

viii) detectable (but not attributable) decreases in severe landfalling TC frequency in eastern Australia since the late 1800s; and
ix) detectable (but not attributable) decreased global TC translation speeds since 1949."

I attach Fig 1f-Fig 1j

Read the whole thing:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1

ATTP has some discussion

https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2019/06/11/extreme-weather-event-attribution/#comments

sidd
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Rod on June 12, 2019, 02:28:37 AM

It is my understanding the two hurricanes that hit Mozambique this year were unprecedented, I am also pretty sure that in February we had the first ever category 5 hurricane that formed (in the Pacific) that early north of the equator. 

The only difference between a hurricane and a typhoon is the location where the storm occurs.

In the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific, the term hurricane is used. The same type of disturbance in the Northwest Pacific is called a typhoon. Meanwhile, in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean, the generic term tropical cyclone is used

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/cyclone.html

Thank you Mag, I miss spoke because I live in the USA and I'm use to calling them hurricanes. 

However, the point of my comment was that these seem to be some petty important storms that are relevant to this discussion.   There is more to "hurricane" season than just the Atlantic. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on June 12, 2019, 03:53:54 AM

iii) increased global average intensity of the strongest TCs since early 1980s;
iv) increase in global proportion of TCs reaching Category 4 or 5 intensity in recent decades; and
v) increased frequency of Hurricane Harvey-like extreme precipitation events in the Texas (U.S.) region.
ix) detectable (but not attributable) decreased global TC translation speeds since 1949."


Sigh. Sadly, even as the paper confirms our fears that hurricanes are getting worse the references they use are outdated already. Most of the authors in quoted papers miss the latest years, that also happen to be the worst.

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on June 12, 2019, 04:32:04 AM
Preprint from Knutson et al on tropical cyclone activity and anthro climate change, focussing on twin goals of reducing "Type I errors (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence or detection)" and reducing " Type II errors (i.e., missing or understating anthropogenic influence or detection)"

It's a nice review article among other things.

"Summary ...

"Using the conventional perspective of avoiding Type I error, the strongest case for a detectable change in TC activity is the observed poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the northwest Pacific basin, with eight of 11 authors rating the observed change as low-to- medium confidence for detection (with one other author having medium and two other authors having medium-to-high confidence). A slight majority of authors (six of 11) had only low confidence that anthropogenic forcing had contributed to the poleward shift. The majority of the author team also had only low confidence that any other observed TC changes represented either detectable changes or attributable anthropogenic changes. From the perspective of reducing Type II errors, a majority of the author team agreed on a number of more speculative TC detection and/or attribution statements, which we recognize have substantial potential for being false alarms (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence) but which may be indicators of emerging anthropogenic signals in the data. Most authors agreed that the balance of evidence suggests detectable anthropogenic contributions to:

i) the poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the western North Pacific;
ii) increased occurrence of extremely severe (post-monsoon season) cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea;
iii) increased global average intensity of the strongest TCs since early 1980s;
iv) increase in global proportion of TCs reaching Category 4 or 5 intensity in recent decades; and
v) increased frequency of Hurricane Harvey-like extreme precipitation events in the Texas (U.S.) region.

In addition, a majority of authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggested an anthropogenic influence (without detection) on:
vi) the unusually active TC season in the western North Pacific in 2015. Author opinion was divided but a slight majority concluded that:
vii) unusually high TC frequency near Hawaii in 2014 was a case where the balance of evidence suggested an anthropogenic influence (without detection).

Finally, most authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggests:

viii) detectable (but not attributable) decreases in severe landfalling TC frequency in eastern Australia since the late 1800s; and
ix) detectable (but not attributable) decreased global TC translation speeds since 1949."

I attach Fig 1f-Fig 1j

Read the whole thing:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1

ATTP has some discussion

https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2019/06/11/extreme-weather-event-attribution/#comments

sidd

Funny, someone took me to task for referencing this paper just recently.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: sidd on June 12, 2019, 07:07:35 AM
What strikes me in the data presented is that globally cyclones have no change in maximum intensity thru late 2000s. There is a significant increasing signal in the north atlantic, and perhaps a barely detectable signal in S. Indian.  Marginal decrease in E. Pacific. Agreed that the data needs updated, the grafs in Fig 1f  dont go past late 2000's.

As to more current data, grafs 1g-1j go thru latish 2010s, there is a significant change in latitude of max intensity and a significant decrease in propagation speed. No change in total number/yr or total landfalls.

Another thing that strikes me is that the authors are unwilling to state that there is detectable anthro contribution (to the level of Type 1 error) except for increasing latitude of max intensity. They are willing to state more in the context of Type II error, but feel it necessary to include the caveat "we recognize have substantial potential for being false alarms."

sidd
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: sidd on June 12, 2019, 07:56:46 AM
Re: storm surge and precipitation:

"Regarding storm surge, our expectation is that a widespread worsening of total inundation levels during storms is occurring due to the global mean sea level rise associated with anthropogenic warming, assuming all other factors equal, although we note that no TC climate change signal has been convincingly detected in sea level extremes data. To date, there is not convincing evidence of a detectable anthropogenic influence on hurricane precipitation rates, in contrast to the case for extreme precipitation in general, where some anthropogenic influence has been detected."

That last sentence is interesting. I suppose there are not enuf hurricanes to detect change in extreme precip during hurricanes, altho the evidence for extreme precipitation from all sources (non hurricanes included) is much more robust. The effects of extreme precip are also worsening, due to the fact that non permeable surface area keeps going up due to development.

About a decade ago i saw an estimate in Eos that impermeable surface in the USA was around the size of Ohio. On the other hand, zoning laws requiring retention ponds and permeable surface are becoming much more widespread. My builder acquaintances bitch about that all the time, but even they recognize the need. They get flooded out too.  Unfortunately there requirements are changing far too slowly.

Given sea level rise, it is quite obvious that storm surge from landfalling systems is going to get worse and worse, as they state, even tho the number of hurricanes is too low to detect this effect robustly.

sidd
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: kinbote on June 12, 2019, 08:49:21 AM
What strikes me in the data presented is that globally cyclones have no change in maximum intensity thru late 2000s. There is a significant increasing signal in the north atlantic, and perhaps a barely detectable signal in S. Indian.  Marginal decrease in E. Pacific. Agreed that the data needs updated, the grafs in Fig 1f  dont go past late 2000's.

sidd

I think it's important to convey, as the authors tell us over and over again, their purpose here is to examine anthropogenic influence from the Type I error perspective, testing against a null hypothesis, where influences must rise to a statistically significant level that eliminates any possible natural or cyclic interference. From a scientific perspective this is obviously important, nevertheless, the authors state:

"We are motivated in this report both by the desire to improve scientific understanding and to provide useful guidance to those who need to deal with future risk.  Adopting only the Type I perspective has substantial potential for missing anthropogenic influences that are present but have not yet emerged or been identified to a high level of confidence." (pg. 7)

The approach the authors are taking is to review various studies in a category, for example,  "Case Study: Trends in global TC intensity," and then the authors conclude by voting if they agree those findings meet the thresholds for rejecting the null hypothesis of meeting the .05 significance level. What those determining factors are they use to define that threshold wasn't clear to me.

Regarding your point about 'no change in maximum intensity thru late 2000s,' I read it differently. Especially, as the authors, and I repeat myself and them again, tell us, their threshold is for Type I error null hypothesis testing, nevertheless, the authors state:

"Despite this lack of robust climate change detection, the small observed increasing trend in global intensity (e.g., Kossin et al. 2013) is generally consistent with expectations of increasing TC intensity with global warming from potential intensity theory(e.g.., Sobel et a. 2016) and high resolution models(Knutson et al. 2010), pointing to a possibly emerging anthropogenic signal."
<snip>
"From the perspective of avoiding Type I errors, we conclude that there is only low confidence in detection and attribution of any anthropogenic influence on historical TC intensityin any basin or globally. However, from the perspective of reducing Type II errors, ten of 11 authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggests that there is a detectable increase in the global average intensity of the strongest (hurricane-strength) TCs since the early 1980s,while one author believes that at least half of half of the observed increase is due to improving observations during the period.  Eight of 11 authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggests anthropogenic forcing has contributed to the increase in global average TC intensity, while the other three authors were not convinced that an anthropogenic contribution has been demonstrated to a balance of evidence level using appropriate attribution methodologies." (pg 17-18)

Circling back to the first quote, the paragraph before it sums it up nicely, at least for me anyway. We may not have absolute scientific, null-hypothesis-rejecting, proof of anthropogenic impacts on TC, but we'd be fools to not see what is going on in front of our eyes.

"As discussed by Lloyd and Oreskes, whether a Type I or Type II error is more important to avoid is context-and audience-dependent.  If the goal is to advance scientific understanding, an emphasis on avoiding Type I errors seems logical.  However, for future planning and risk assessment, one may want to reduce Type II errors in particular.  For example, planners for infrastructure development in coastal regions may want to consider emerging detection/attribution findings--even if not at the 0.05 significance level--in their planning and decision-making." (pg. 7)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: jai mitchell on June 12, 2019, 06:46:57 PM
VAYU

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/cyclone-vayu-to-intensify-as-very-severe-cyclone/article27823219.ece

The India Met Department (IMD) has ramped up the expected top wind speed of the very severe cyclone Vayu from 145-155 km/hr to 170-180 km/hr at the time of landfall.

After crossing the Porbandar-Veraval stretch in Gujarat, the system is likely to move along and parallel to the Saurashtra & Kutch coasts with its band of forceful winds and heavy rain lashing the districts from Amreli to Kutch.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: ivica on June 12, 2019, 06:56:56 PM
To add to jai's Vayu post:

https://watchers.news/2019/06/12/300-000-evacuating-ahead-of-tropical-cyclone-vayu-the-strongest-since-1998-to-hit-nw-india/
"
    * Tropical cyclones of this strength are rare for the region.
    * If the forecast verifies, this will be the strongest tropical cyclone to hit NW India since June 9, 1998, when 10 000 people lost their lives.
"
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on June 13, 2019, 12:40:31 AM
Cyclone Vayu Poised to Hit India as Year's Second Major Storm
https://www.meteo974.re/Arabian-Sea-TC-VAYU-02A-now-a-category-2-US-intensifying-gradually-approaching-Porbandar-Gujarat_a919.html

(https://www.meteo974.re/photo/art/default/34702031-31664695.jpg?v=1560312749)
TC VAYU(02A) IS NOW A CATEGORY 2 CYCLONE WITH TOP GUSTS APPROACHING 200KM/H NEAR THE CENTER.

The India Meteorological Department said on Wednesday that Cyclone Vayu was due to hit the Gujarat coast early on Thursday with winds gusting up to 170km an hour.

The warm waters of the Arabian Sea will continue to allow Vayu to gradually strengthen before making possible landfall, potentially making the cyclone the equivalent strength of a Category 2 hurricane. https://www.seatemperature.org/indian-ocean

... One unusual knock-on effect from the approaching storm will be the increasing temperatures for southeastern Pakistan.

The counter-clockwise circulation will mean an easterly flow over the region, allowing much hotter and drier air to move over the area. Temperatures for Karachi could reach as high as 40C in coming days, 11 degrees above its normal average.


... Gujarat is home to large refineries and sea ports that lie near the storm’s path, officials said.

India's Sikka Ports and Terminals Ltd, which handles crude oil and refined products for Reliance Industries Ltd, closed berthing of vessels at its western Indian port on Wednesday due to a cyclone warning, according to a port notice and a shipping industry source.

India's biggest oil refinery, owned by Reliance Industries, is also based in Gujarat. A Reliance executive on Tuesday said the cyclone is expected to weaken by the time it reaches the Jamnagar-based refinery.

Sikka ports also handle oil and refined products cargo for Bharat Oman Refineries Ltd, a subsidiary of Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd.

(https://s.w-x.co/in-vayu4.jpg)
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/06/cyclone-vayu-threatens-india-pakistan-190611090703282.html

(https://www.meteo974.re/photo/art/default/34702031-31665624.jpg?v=1560313376)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on June 13, 2019, 02:04:17 PM
Fortunately for the residents of Gujarat, this category 2 cyclone has veered westward, away from the coast, sparing many from the worst of the storm.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bligh8 on June 14, 2019, 07:37:34 PM
NOAA’s New Global Model: How Does It Handle Tropical Cyclones?

Bob Henson  ·  June 14, 2019, 12:33 PM EDT

"A major upgrade to the global workhorse in NOAA’s suite of numerical weather prediction models become official on Wednesday. The Global Forecast System (GFS) has switched to a new dynamical core for the guidance it generates, which extends out to 16 days (384 hours) and is updated every 6 hours. Tests show that the new finite-volume cubed-sphere dynamical core (FV3)—which has been running in test mode since last year—will bring a number of improvements to prediction of various weather features, including tropical cyclones.
“This is a major milestone in our ongoing effort to deliver the very best forecast products and services to the nation,” said acting NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs in a press briefing on Wednesday."

Figure 1. Rather than narrowing at a point, as traditional model grids do at the North and South poles, the FV3 finite-volume cubed-sphere grid converges onto a inlaid higher-resolution grid that can be located as desired on the globe. In the example shown here, the higher-resolution grid is positioned to include Hurricane Sandy while it was near the Bahamas in October 2012. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

Improved intensity forecasts. Forecasters have struggled to make consistent improvements in predicting hurricane intensity, which hinges on small-scale features that are difficult for models to reproduce (especially global models). The first version of FV3 showed only marginal changes in predicting the peak winds of a tropical cyclone, but the update now in use shows error reductions in the Atlantic of 2-4 knots at most time periods (see Figure 2 above).
Much of this improvement appears to stem from a more accurate depiction of central pressure. The previous version of the GFS was known for overdeepening the most intense storms, resulting in implausibly deep cyclones with unrealistically weak winds.
“The new FV3 simulations are much closer to the best track wind-pressure relationship, likely a result of improved numerics and physics in the current FV3 model,” said Philippe Papin, a postdoctoral researcher at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory who specializes in tropical cyclones. “I don't think we will see as many sub 900-hPa tropical cyclones associated with less-than-120-kt winds that were common in the old GFS runs.”

More within the open access paper
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on July 03, 2019, 07:21:54 AM
Hurricane BARBARA.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: SteveMDFP on July 03, 2019, 01:43:35 PM
Hurricane BARBARA.
Thanks for the "heads up."  It's in the eastern north pacific, between Mexico and Hawaii, heading towards (roughly) Hawaii.  It's predicted to fizzle out before reaching Hawaii.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/083706.shtml?cone#contents (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/083706.shtml?cone#contents)

We'll surely see more ominous systems in the coming weeks/months.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 03, 2019, 02:32:20 PM
One thing rather special about Hurricane Barbara was 
Quote
Barbara vaulted from a tropical storm with 70 mph winds to a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds in just 18.5 hours, as confirmed in a special update issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) [Tuesday morning].
(Weather Underground (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Barbara-Leaps-Category-4-Strength-Eastern-Pacific?cm_ven=cat6-widget))

I understand the NOAA forecasters were not expecting this rapid intensification (RI).  RI seems to be happening more often in recent years - Global Warming, per chance?  [/sarc].
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: aperson on July 03, 2019, 06:24:53 PM
One thing rather special about Hurricane Barbara was 
Quote
Barbara vaulted from a tropical storm with 70 mph winds to a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds in just 18.5 hours, as confirmed in a special update issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) [Tuesday morning].
(Weather Underground (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Barbara-Leaps-Category-4-Strength-Eastern-Pacific?cm_ven=cat6-widget))

I understand the NOAA forecasters were not expecting this rapid intensification (RI).  RI seems to be happening more often in recent years - Global Warming, per chance?  [/sarc].

SHIPS - an intensity forecasting model and one of the primary intensity forecasting tools used by the NHC - was showing heightened chances of RI well in advance. Here's a post from a tropical cyclone tracking forum on Sunday showing very high chances of 48/72hr RI relative to climatological averages from SHIPS output: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2744612#p2744612

Quote
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  41% is   6.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  46% is   9.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 03, 2019, 06:41:55 PM
Thanks for the correction, Aperson.  (I was going off a comment I read on the Cat 6 thread - frequently dangerous!)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 06, 2019, 06:43:18 PM
Quote
Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) 7/6/19, 9:14 AM
The ECMWF hires model continues to illustrate a possible tropical threat next week over the Gulf of Mexico. The model is still not locked onto where this disturbance will develop as shown by the d(prog)/dt analysis here. The American and Canadian models do not show development.
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1147494061361618945
Worst-looking image is below. Gif of the evolving forecast at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on July 06, 2019, 08:46:20 PM
On their radar screen:
From NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure over western Kentucky, Tennessee and
northern Mississippi is forecast to move over the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico where a low pressure area could form early next week.
Some gradual development of the system is then possible as it drifts
westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico through midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png)

-----------------------

Looks like it will be windy for Tor  :(
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Rod on July 06, 2019, 09:34:12 PM
If this actually develops as predicted, then these comments should probably be moved to the Weird Weather thread. 🤔
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Rod on July 06, 2019, 10:04:58 PM
I just noticed that the NWS forecast post by Vox indicates the probability of formation is low. 

However, there are a lot of weather forecasters still posting model runs indicating a tropical cyclone might form from a low pressure system in the Midwest.   If that happens, it would certainly be “unique.”   Maybe it has happened before, but I don’t ever remember seeing anything like that. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 07, 2019, 03:46:25 AM
We had 2.25 inches, I mean 57 mm, of rain today. Related to that tropical disturbance? I don't know.  Because of trees, we basically don't notice if there is wind 'up there' unless it's pretty intense and a Tropical Storm seldom counts by the time it gets here from the coast. 

By the way, that forecast included "as it drifts westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico", so any wind will be felt in Louisiana, rather than Florida.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bbr2314 on July 09, 2019, 08:23:02 PM
This could be a knockout blow for New Orleans.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019070912/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 09, 2019, 08:37:41 PM
NOLA (New Orleans, Louisiana) is vulnerable, but not that vulnerable!  :)
Most forecasting (http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2019/al922019/) currently has future Barry attaining only Tropical Storm force winds, if that.  Ture, a foot of rain, I mean 300 mm of rain, will make the place damp, but they have pumps for that.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bbr2314 on July 09, 2019, 08:43:29 PM
NOLA (New Orleans, Louisiana) is vulnerable, but not that vulnerable!  :)
Most forecasting (http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2019/al922019/) currently has future Barry attaining only Tropical Storm force winds, if that.  Ture, a foot of rain, I mean 300 mm of rain, will make the place damp, but they have pumps for that.

Usually, yes you would be correct. But there are threads on Twitter explaining why now is a very bad time. The Mississippi River is at its highest-ever level for this time of year (16'). When Katrina came in it was at 2 or 3' (or something LOW).

https://twitter.com/SteveWAFB/status/1148295744799088642?

Due to the unprecedented background level, we only have 3-4' of leeway before the levees would be overtopped. The rain would be bad for river flooding, but that is the lesser concern here for New Orleans specifically, which is in a uniquely unprecedented and possibly terrible situation due to the enhanced background flooding ongoing.

12z modeling would indicate 3-4' is well within the realm of possibilities BTW. For maximum surge we would need the storm to track to the west of the city which all modeling is agreeing upon for now.

Gustav hit as a 2 in western LA and produced a 7' surge in NOLA. This may be a decent analog for now in terms of possible surge impacts. And it would double the amount necessary for a critical blow.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/85/Gustav_2008_track.png)

FWIW, if we had a 7' surge on top of forecast river levels, the MS would top 23' at NoLA. The records are all at 21' from the 1920s. It would be catastrophically horrible.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on July 09, 2019, 08:57:46 PM
Not to worry.

We know how well the efficient and trustworthy public administration of New Orleans and Louisiana fixed up the joint after Katrina, and that they are fully prepared to deal with all future emergencies.

And of course, with Trump in overall control, FEMA is ready to leap into action if required.
______________________________________________________________________________
"Where the US of A leads, the UK will surely follow" he said, reaching for a cup of Hemlock.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bbr2314 on July 09, 2019, 09:02:50 PM
12z EURO is BAD

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 09, 2019, 09:21:12 PM
Thanks, I knew the river was up, but forgot about storm surge.  And although no model has suggested more than a week Category 1 hurricane, plenty of folks posting on Weather Underground's Category 6 (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6) blog worry about rapid intensification (RI) that has surprised the experts a couple times recently, so a Cat 2 storm could be a possibility. (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fworldlywise.pbworks.com%2Ff%2F1271537870%2Fsaffir-simpson.gif&hash=681331f901accacb67b073ab89d41060)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bbr2314 on July 09, 2019, 09:23:32 PM
Thanks, I knew the river was up, but forgot about storm surge.  And although no model has suggested more than a week Category 1 hurricane, plenty of folks posting on Weather Underground's Category 6 (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6) blog worry about rapid intensification (RI) that has surprised the experts a couple times recently, so a Cat 2 storm could be a possibility. (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fworldlywise.pbworks.com%2Ff%2F1271537870%2Fsaffir-simpson.gif&hash=681331f901accacb67b073ab89d41060)
Indeed. I think we would need a central pressure of under 990MB for surge to overtop the levees, which is actually not that low and probably higher than the central pressure will end up verifying (IMO). I could see a Cat 2 on the high end but I think a strong TS or weak 1 is most likely.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Rich on July 09, 2019, 09:51:16 PM
The water temperature along the gulf coast from mid peninsula (FL) to New Orleans is 30-31C. Warmest water in the region.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: oren on July 09, 2019, 10:05:34 PM
From the dumb questions department: doesn't the high river water serve as a sort of barrier against the incoming storm surge? It doesn't seem right to add the 16' of the river and the 5' of the surge and conclude the levees will be overtopped.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bbr2314 on July 09, 2019, 10:07:42 PM
From the dumb questions department: doesn't the high river water serve as a sort of barrier against the incoming storm surge? It doesn't seem right to add the 16' of the river and the 5' of the surge and conclude the levees will be overtopped.
A good question. We may find out in a few days!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: kassy on July 09, 2019, 10:16:58 PM
The incoming storm surge should push against the outflowing waters blocking them so they will go higher and then you can add whatever rain falls.

Rivers also communicate with the local water table so if there are any much lower areas in NO they might get wet.

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on July 09, 2019, 11:02:54 PM
Isn't a storm surge a product of a drop in surface air pressure lifting sea level, combined with wind action pushing water on-shore?

Not much anyone can do about an ocean coming ashore?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: J Cartmill on July 09, 2019, 11:37:46 PM
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/new-orleans-achilles-heel-a-storm-surge-on-the-mississippi-river.html (https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/new-orleans-achilles-heel-a-storm-surge-on-the-mississippi-river.html)
Jeff Masters has a nice discussion.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Shared Humanity on July 10, 2019, 12:52:56 AM
I'd be far more concerned about the rain than any storm surge. What is the track for this storm? if it is slow moving they are screwed.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: oren on July 10, 2019, 02:37:39 AM
Thanks for the Jeff Masters link.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: J Cartmill on July 10, 2019, 03:12:37 AM
This could be a real mess for New Orleans. The GFS has 20+ inches (500 mm) of rain forecast. The river is projected to go close to the top of the levee. The Bonne Carre spillway is still open sending water into Lake Pontchartrain.

tropicaltidbits.com (http://tropicaltidbits.com) Video updates during tropical events and lots of models and data.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane (https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane) Jeff Masters usually posts a daily update.

https://www.nola.com/news/weather/article_47445066-a28a-11e9-8d9f-876b05ca99d0.html (https://www.nola.com/news/weather/article_47445066-a28a-11e9-8d9f-876b05ca99d0.html) article discussing 92L impacts from New Orleans newspaper.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: MrGreeny on July 10, 2019, 07:13:59 AM
92L just near Panama City.

Afaik I have never seen such a thing in this area before, and that close to the coast.

That makes wonder if more of these will pop up near the coast this year or if it was a one off thing but it may definitely happen again in the near future.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: dnem on July 10, 2019, 05:25:32 PM
NHC now has a tropical cyclone peaking at 85 mph prior to landfall.  Who wants to bet that peak intensity exceeds this forecast?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on July 10, 2019, 06:22:01 PM
NHC now has a tropical cyclone peaking at 85 mph prior to landfall.  Who wants to bet that peak intensity exceeds this forecast?
With the paragraph in the NHC guidance below, no bets from me.
A lot of rain.
A bit more of the Louisiana boot falls into the Gulf?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/101457.shtml?
Quote
By 48 hours and beyond, however, the combination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions
become ideal for intensification. The very low shear shear conditions, an impressive outflow pattern forecast by all of the global and regional models, and anomalously warm sea-surface
temperatures of 30-31C argue for quick intensification
,
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on July 10, 2019, 07:00:01 PM
New Orleans already got 7 inches of rain today. And this will continue until early next week. https://www.nola.com/news/article_e7cd222a-a329-11e9-8b2d-ab8749f9d28a.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bbr2314 on July 10, 2019, 07:30:15 PM
MS River now forecast to reach 20'... oh boy...

https://twitter.com/DavidBernardTV/status/1148971892130422784?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 10, 2019, 08:06:53 PM
Parts of New Orleans Are Flooded. Worse Is on the Way.
A brewing storm surge could elevate the Mississippi River to 20 feet above sea level—as high as the levees that protect the city.
Henry GrabarJuly 10, 2019 12:23 PM
Quote
There was quite a lot of water in the streets of New Orleans on Wednesday morning, thanks to intense thunderstorms that prompted the National Weather Service to issue a “Flash Flood Emergency” warning. Parts of the city received nearly a foot of rain before noon, turning neighborhoods that rarely flood into canoe routes.

Those scenes offer a preview of what’s to come later in the week, when a tropical depression is projected to turn into Hurricane Barry and make landfall on the Louisiana coast as a Category 1, dropping as much as 2 feet of rain in some parts of the state.

New Orleans has long had a problem with rainfall flooding, since much of the city sits just above sea level, and a good part of it sits below. Enormous pumps were a big part of the city’s $14.6 billion storm protection upgrade after Hurricane Katrina hit in 2005, and their struggles are a subject of citywide scrutiny every time it rains. Topographically, New Orleans is often likened to a bowl, but it’s more like a waffle, with pockets of low ground that fill up with just a few inches of rain.

A rain forecast like Barry’s is never welcome news in New Orleans. But what makes this storm particularly ominous is that it comes at a time when the Mississippi River in New Orleans is just below flood stage, an unusual and unprecedented development this late in the year. As I wrote in June, the river—swollen by a record year of rainfall in the Midwest—has never been so high, so long. A few feet of rain and a midsized storm surge are projected to bring the river to a height it hasn’t hit in more than 90 years, reaching the top of the levees. Another foot would cause river water to crash into the neighborhoods below. Katrina hit when the river was running at 3 feet; it currently sits at 16 feet.
...
The levees top out around 20 feet; storm surge on the Mississippi is projected at 20 feet. If the forecast stands, at least some water will overtop the levees along the banks of the river.
https://slate.com/business/2019/07/new-orleans-is-flooded-in-some-neighborhoods-and-a-storm-surge-is-coming.html
Photos, tweets and a flood graph at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on July 10, 2019, 11:38:08 PM
New Orleans (https://vk.com/wall-21245447_495771), 10.07.2019.
(https://sun9-4.userapi.com/c851324/v851324728/1636a6/u2yOqBCurKE.jpg)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on July 11, 2019, 10:10:36 AM
Latest from NHC.NOAA.gov
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Rich on July 11, 2019, 11:19:40 AM
Barry is percolating in 30C water right now. The warmest water in the Gulf is S. of Louisiana at 31C+ with a small pocket above 32C !

They better hope this storm doesn't linger before it arrives inland. That's a shitload of heat to support rapid intensification.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Burnrate on July 11, 2019, 05:45:41 PM
...

They better hope this storm doesn't linger before it arrives inland. That's a shitload of heat to support rapid intensification.

I remember when Harvey was coming in and the forecast changed from Tropical Storm to Cat 4 in less than 2 days before it made landfall.  You had almost 3 days of warning a storm was coming but it intensified so rapidly we almost didn't have time to get supplies for the flooding (thinking it was just going to be a small storm).
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on July 11, 2019, 08:36:48 PM
Latest from NHC.NOAA.GOV
WTNT42 KNHC 111453
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

The low pressure area over the northern Gulf of Mexico has become
better organized during the past several hours, with a large
convective band in the southern semicircle.  The circulation
center has also become better defined, although it is still
elongated and multiple cloud swirls are seen rotating around the
mean center.  In addition, Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft report flight-level and SFMR winds high enough for
an initial intensity of 35 kt.  Based on these developments, the
system is upgraded to Tropical Storm Barry.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 270/4.  Barry is being
steered by a weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north, and a
weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop during the next
24-48 h.  This should allow the cyclone to turn northwestward and
eventually northward.  However, there is a large spread in the track
guidance.  The HWRF and HMON forecast Barry to move almost due
north from its current position with a landfall in Mississippi,
while the UKMET takes the cyclone to the upper Texas coast.  The
GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models lie between these extremes.
Overall, there has been a slight eastward shift of the guidance
envelope, so the new forecast track is also adjusted slightly to
the east.  It should be noted, though, that the new track is west
of the consensus models.

Barry is being affected by northerly shear, and water vapor imagery
indicates mid- to upper-level dry air moving into the cyclone from
the northeast.  Some moderate shear is now expected to persist until
the cyclone makes landfall. 
Despite this less than ideal
environment, the guidance forecasts slow but steady intensification,
so the NHC forecast follows this trend.  The new intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one in calling for Barry to become a
hurricane just before landfall in Louisiana, and it lies between the
HCCA and ICON consensus models.

Key Messages:

1. Barry is expected to bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind
hazards to the central Gulf Coast during the next several days.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm
Surge Warning has been issued. The highest storm surge inundation is
expected between the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River and Shell Beach.
Residents in these areas should listen to any advice given by local
officials.

3. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
much of the Louisiana coast and additional watches and warnings
could be required later today. Residents in these areas should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration
heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and
potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant,
especially along and east of the track of the system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 27.8N  88.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 27.8N  89.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 28.1N  90.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 28.6N  90.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 29.4N  91.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  14/1200Z 32.0N  91.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  15/1200Z 34.5N  91.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  16/1200Z 37.0N  89.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: wdmn on July 12, 2019, 06:50:01 AM
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 89.4 West. Barry is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h).  A slow westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday.  A turn
toward the northwest is expected Friday night, followed by a turn
toward the north on Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Barry will be near or over the central or southeastern coast of
Louisiana Friday night or Saturday, and then move inland into the
Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85
km/h) with higher gusts.  Strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Barry could become a hurricane late Friday or
early Saturday when the center is near the Louisiana coast.
Weakening is expected after Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the south of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by data from NOAA and Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on July 12, 2019, 12:55:09 PM
The Big Easy & Louisiana
Read all about it at

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/083731.shtml?rainqpf#contents

Looks like as far as wind and storm surge are concerned, bad, but not as bad as could have been.

But rainfall..... a slow moving system is the worst scenario.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Rich on July 12, 2019, 01:55:43 PM
Thanks for the updates.

Who needs storm surge when you get 2 feet of rain? The surge falls from the sky. 

Gonna be very, very ugly in LA.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: wdmn on July 12, 2019, 05:32:03 PM
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 90.4 West. Barry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A motion
toward the northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a
turn toward the north Saturday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Barry will approach the central or southeastern coast of
Louisiana through tonight and then make landfall over the central
Louisiana coast on Saturday.  After landfall, Barry is expected to
move generally northward through the Mississippi Valley through
Sunday.


Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph
(100 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast
before landfall, and Barry is expected to be a hurricane when the
center reaches the Louisiana coast.
  Weakening is expected after
Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.  The NOAA automated station at the Southwest Pass
of the Mississippi River recently reported sustained winds of
54 mph and a wind gust of 60 mph at an elevation of 125 ft.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft and surface
observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Rich on July 13, 2019, 09:25:54 AM
Barry's forward motion has slowed to 3MPH.

A little extra time in that 31C water to strengthen into the first landfall hurricane of 2019.

Epic flooding to follow.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: b_lumenkraft on July 13, 2019, 09:29:24 AM
:-[
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on July 13, 2019, 01:20:54 PM
NHC.NOAA.GOV say they still expect it to make it to hurricane 1 force by landfall today.

Vast quantities of reports on this event except for perhaps the one greatest long-term threat. The levees of the lower Mississippi River are under threat which in turn is a threat to one of the USA's major transportation routes.

The powers that be in Louisiana say that while the Levees may be overtopped, i.e. flood, they will not break. I, for one, felt a tad too much complacency in these remarks. And on the immediate aftermath, just one report (which I've lost) commenting on how due to the multitude of demands on their services over the last year, FEMA's budget is just about bust. They have a reduced work-force.

The graphics say it all, really, on the sheer scale of this weather event affecting a river at record levels for the time of year (the wettest 12 months in the USA's recorded history). Weather events piled upon weather events. The old one-two will do for you..
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on July 13, 2019, 02:32:07 PM
The army Corp of engineers stated that the river crested earlier today at just below 17 feet, due to the storm surge.  Below the original forecast of 20.  The levees have held - so far
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Rich on July 13, 2019, 03:33:48 PM
 Max sustained winds up to 70MPH. Forward speed 5 MPH. Next report should include input from the hurricane hunters.

Rain forecast diminished somewhat.

Barry taking his time to cross land. He wants that hurricane status.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 13, 2019, 04:20:21 PM
Kimberly Nesmith (@KimANesmith) 7/12/19, 8:14 PM
Mississippi River from Algiers Point in NOLA [New Orleans, Louisiana]. That's normally a grassy, open field where the trees are in the water. Not abnormal for the water to get this high at times, but never been this high for this long. #TropicalStormBarry #NewOrleans
https://twitter.com/kimanesmith/status/1149834457362456577
Image at the link.

——-
NWS WPC (@NWSWPC) 7/10/19, 8:11 PM
When a new tropical system is about to be advised upon by @NWSNHC, an internal conference call is held to inform/coordinate the message within @NWS prior to the issuance of NHC products. That way, we can speak with one voice as the information becomes available to the public.
https://twitter.com/nwswpc/status/1149108856473022469
Photo at the link.  Irony: some folks at the conference could not get back to their hotel because of street flooding in NOLA.
- Pictured are a mix of forecasters, development/technical meteorologists, and management from the Weather Prediction Center, along with visiting forecasters in town this week for the Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment.

——-
Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) 7/12/19, 6:09 PM
Memphis could get 10 inches of rain from TS #Barry. That's more than two months worth in two days.
Folks, this is NOT just a Louisiana storm. This is going to be a widespread flooding emergency for a lot of people well inland.   twitter.com/breakingweathe…
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1149803024069644288
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Rich on July 13, 2019, 04:28:28 PM
Nothing official yet, but we may have landfall near Intracoastal City.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: prokaryotes on July 13, 2019, 05:12:12 PM
Barry was just upgraded to Hurricane status. https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/1150059448829972480

Is there potential for stalling, and at what point is a storm considered to stall?

Quote
NAM 3KM has Barry staying off land for at least the next 24 hours. This model was pretty accurate in terms of track for this system
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Barry-Churns-Near-Louisiana-Coast-Massive-Rains-Still-Expected#comment-4538153747
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on July 13, 2019, 05:19:37 PM
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL022019_key_messages+png/145608_key_messages_sm.png)

Louisiana Highway 1 is underwater this morning

The Lafourche Parish Sheriff's Office shared a video showing Louisiana Highway 1 underwater this morning.

https://www.facebook.com/LafourcheSO/videos/636003750251242/

AccuWeather predicts the total damage from Barry will be $8 to $10 billion
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweather-predicts-the-total-damage-from-barry-will-be-8-to-10-billion/70008801

... The estimate includes damage to homes and businesses, as well as their contents and cars, as well as job and wage losses, farm and crop losses, contamination of drinking water wells, infrastructure damage, auxiliary business losses and the long-term impact from flooding, in addition to the lingering health effects resulting from flooding and the disease caused by standing water.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on July 13, 2019, 05:33:40 PM
The army Corp of engineers stated that the river crested earlier today at just below 17 feet, due to the storm surge.  Below the original forecast of 20.  The levees have held - so far
I think there was also talk about the levees further up river that will get the effect of a load of water coming down in two or thre days time, i.e. not all about the storm surge in the lower reaches.

Maybe I was wrong about that.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Pragma on July 13, 2019, 05:47:46 PM
A couple of observations, as others may have mentioned.

The rapid development of the storm/hurricane and the stalling, potentially drenching areas for days, is very reminiscent of Hurricane Harvey. Are we seeing the start of a trend?

According the the NOAA/NHC site, the path of maximum rainfall seems to be using the Mississippi river as a roadmap all the way up to Tennessee. This can not be a good sign. It will be putting the maximum amount of rainfall into the river with minimum delay or absorption.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: prokaryotes on July 13, 2019, 05:59:38 PM
According the the NOAA/NHC site, the path of maximum rainfall seems to be using the Mississippi river as a roadmap all the way up to Tennessee.

And Barry formed originally there, mentioned here https://youtu.be/RuNGJsFtv-U?t=216
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Rod on July 13, 2019, 06:37:11 PM
The Mississippi has breached the levee in Myrtle Grove, LA, a little bit south of New Orleans. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 13, 2019, 07:16:32 PM
AGW making hurricanes wetter:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/11/climate/hurricane-tropical-storms.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fclimate&action=click&contentCollection=climate&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Rich on July 13, 2019, 07:32:46 PM
The heavy rains are SE of the storm center. Just starting to reach the coast.

The Mayor of Morgan City said their pump system could handle 5" of rain + an additional 1" per hour.

They're going over that today.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: prokaryotes on July 13, 2019, 07:42:55 PM
Quote
Barry's center is meandering along the Louisiana coast near 29.7N/92W.
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1150088671791476736
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on July 13, 2019, 09:43:52 PM
AGW making hurricanes wetter:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/11/climate/hurricane-tropical-storms.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fclimate&action=click&contentCollection=climate&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront
That does appear to be the case.  Even though frequency and intensity have been affected significantly.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: b_lumenkraft on July 13, 2019, 10:52:06 PM
Barry via RAMMB-SLIDER Airmass

(Click to play)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on July 30, 2019, 02:11:41 PM
I know it's still far out, but they show 4 typhoons at the same time.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: SteveMDFP on July 30, 2019, 03:44:58 PM
I know it's still far out, but they show 4 typhoons at the same time.

We now have Erick and Flossie in the eastern pacific now, both forecast to strengthen to hurricanes within the coming hours.  Both on a rough trajectory in the direction of Hawaii, but not yet looking like a direct hit to the islands.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 01, 2019, 06:34:16 PM
Quote
National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) 7/31/19, 7:48 PM
8 PM AST Jul 31: NHC continues to watch a broad area of low pressure in the tropical Atlantic. A tropical depression is likely to form from this system by early next week several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Full outlook: hurricanes.gov #96L
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1156713342205140992
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bbr2314 on August 06, 2019, 12:45:57 AM
Looks like we may get our first megacane of the season imminently (or rather, supertyphoon). The eye expands to the size of Taiwan.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019080518/gfs_ir_ea_22.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Juan C. García on August 06, 2019, 01:19:51 AM
Seems that there will be action on the Pacific.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on August 06, 2019, 01:54:35 PM
Francisco just left Japan. And 2 big boys are gaining strength. Lekimas central pressure wil drop into the low 30's by Thursday morning. https://japantoday.com/category/national/Typhoon-leaves-1-dead-in-southwestern-Japan
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on August 08, 2019, 12:52:19 AM
Cyclone Lekima will hit the island of Ishigakijima in a day or so at max strength, 125 knots sustained winds.

Ishigaki Island (石垣島, Ishigakijima) is the main island of the Yaeyama Islands and the region's transportation hub. Ishigaki City, Japan's southernmost city, is the only urban center of the Yaeyama Islands and the site of the region's major airport and ferry terminal, as well as of lots of hotels, shops, restaurants and bars.

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 08, 2019, 01:19:37 AM
Cyclone Lekima will hit the island of Ishigakijima in a day or so at max strength, 125 knots sustained winds.

Ishigaki Island (石垣島, Ishigakijima) is the main island of the Yaeyama Islands and the region's transportation hub. Ishigaki City, Japan's southernmost city, is the only urban center of the Yaeyama Islands and the site of the region's major airport and ferry terminal, as well as of lots of hotels, shops, restaurants and bars.

My guess is the Japanese national government responds more effectively then the U.S. did with Puerto Rico.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: TerryM on August 09, 2019, 08:20:03 AM
[quote author=Shared Humanity link=topic=2569.msg219991#msg219991 date=1565219977
My guess is the Japanese national government responds more effectively then the U.S. did with Puerto Rico.



WOW!


Who would believe such obvious propaganda. ::)
Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: rboyd on August 09, 2019, 09:14:09 PM
Looking at the track I would be more worried about the Shanghai area, a little bit more populated than that Japanese island.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 10, 2019, 08:28:13 PM
More active hurricane season forecast. Seventeen named storms, four major?
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/08/climate/noaa-hurricane-forecast.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fclimate&action=click&contentCollection=climate&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on August 10, 2019, 08:31:49 PM
Typhoon Lekima Kills 18 in China: State Media
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/08/typhoon-lekima-kills-18-china-state-media-190810082658526.html

At least 18 people have been killed and another 14 missing in the eastern Chinese province of Zhejiang, after Typhoon Lekima made landfall on Saturday, according to state broadcaster CCTV.

More than 1 million people were evacuated before the typhoon made landfall at about 1 a.m. local time (1 p.m. Friday ET), with the government opening 122,000 disaster avoidance and resettlement sites, according to a report from Chinese state-run press agency Xinhua.

"With a maximum wind force of 187 kph (116 mph), the super typhoon -- the ninth typhoon this year -- is expected to bring heavy rain to the provinces of Anhui, Fujian, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, and the municipality of Shanghai," Xinhua reported.

It also triggered a landslide and floods in China's Yongjia County in Zhejiang, about 130km north of the coastal city of Wenzhou. The landslide blocked a river, causing a lake to form. That natural dam then burst, sending a deluge of water downstream.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/09/asia/typhoon-lekima-china-taiwan-intl-hnk/index.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 11, 2019, 03:48:56 AM
Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone) 8/10/19, 7:21 PM
Behold: victim of extreme upwelling. #KROSA hasn't moved in days. Ocean underneath is churned up & cooler, fuel supply is killed, & this formerly powerful typhoon's been reduced to half-moon convective band. It'll recover some when it moves, but core's gonna take time to rebuild.
https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1160330299026264065

Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 8/10/19, 7:38 PM
@iCyclone Your cyclone prose is simply the best.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on August 14, 2019, 06:01:44 PM
Flooded Mississippi a Threat as Hurricane Season Heats Up
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-mississippi-threat-hurricane-season.html

The river that drains much of the flood-soaked United States is still running far higher than normal, menacing New Orleans in multiple ways just as the hurricane season intensifies.

For months now, a massive volume of water has been pushing against the levees keeping a city mostly below sea level from being inundated. The Mississippi River has run past New Orleans at more than 11 feet (3.4 meters) above sea level for more than 200 days.

... Experts who study flowing water say there's a risk the river could rise above the tops of some levees in the New Orleans area, if a hurricane pushes enough storm surge up the swollen river. The city's levees held the river back in the great flood of 1927 and haven't been topped since then, Boyett said.

The levees range in height from 20 to 25 feet (6 to 7.5 meters). While river levels are finally falling, the National Weather Service projects the Mississippi will remain well above average at about 11 feet (3.4 meters) above sea-level at New Orleans this week as hurricane season heats up.

... When Katrina formed as a tropical storm in the Bahamas on Aug. 24, 2005, the river stage in New Orleans was just 2.44 feet (0.74 meters) above sea level. It rose to 3.6 feet (1.1 meters) the day before Katrina devastated the city in 2005.

Katrina knocked out an automatic station that would have measured peak surge at the river's mouth, but an analysis by the Federal Emergency Management Agency indicates the surge reached nearly 28 feet at Pass Christian, Mississippi. Surge pushed the Mississippi River up to 11.6 feet (3.5 meters) at New Orleans—not a threatening height with the river low. But surge from the brackish lakes to the city's north and east reached 19 feet, overtopping or breaching those levees and flooding 80 percent of the city with water as much as 20 feet deep in places

--------------------------

The there's the Brown ocean effect (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_ocean_effect) ...

One source of the brown ocean effect has been identified as the large amount of latent heat that can be released from extremely wet soils. Mississippi and Louisiana are still pretty saturated.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on August 22, 2019, 01:37:57 AM
`Back-Loaded' Hurricane Season Bearing Down on U.S. Coast
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-14/-back-loaded-hurricane-season-bearing-down-on-u-s-coastlines

- Next six weeks could see a train of Atlantic storms develop
- Factors that have hindered hurricane since June 1 are now gone


... the next six weeks -- “the season within a season” -- is regularly the most dangerous and active time for storms to develop in the Atlantic, said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Only two named storms have developed in the Atlantic so far this year. Dry, dusty air from Africa’s Sahara robbed potential storms of moisture, and wind shear spurred by the El Nino climate systems ripped apart budding storms. Now, those brakes on hurricane development are gone.

The result: “A big change in the pattern over the Atlantic, going from a very lackluster quiet weather pattern to a much more active one,” said Dan Kottlowski, the lead hurricane forecaster at AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. “We are thinking this season will be back-loaded.”

At risk is $17 trillion in U.S. real estate along the coasts, as well as some of America’s most valuable commodities. More than 45% of U.S. refining capacity and 51% of gas processing is along the Gulf of Mexico coastline. Florida is the world’s second-largest producer of orange juice after Brazil.

There are two other factors that could spur on storms in September, according to Bob Henson, a meteorologist with Weather Underground.

The first is the so-called Madden-Julian Oscillation, a ripple of rising and sinking air that swirls through the atmosphere about every 45 to 60 days that can spark typhoons and hurricanes when combined with other factors. It could affect the Atlantic in late August or September, Henson said.

The second is a fast-moving atmospheric system known as a “convectively-coupled kelvin wave” that’s affected by the earth’s rotation. When one runs into a tropical wave moving off Africa, it can give it a speedy boost to swirl into a hurricane or tropical storm. There is one now moving across the Pacific on its way to the Atlantic, Henson said.

There is a deep pool of warm water tucked into the Gulf of Mexico, across the western Caribbean and along the U.S. Southeast coastline, according to Jim Rouiller, chief meteorologist at the Energy Weather Group outside Philadelphia. Any storm that reaches those areas could explode in power, he said.

“This is high-octane fuel that is all waiting in the wings for the first storm,” Rouiller said. “This is all untapped, and it will really intensify storms.”

(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anal.gif)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: nanning on August 22, 2019, 05:33:44 AM
Thanks vox-mundi.

Quote
At risk is $17 trillion in U.S. real estate along the coasts, as well as some of America’s most valuable commodities.

People?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: TerryM on August 22, 2019, 08:26:36 AM
Thanks vox-mundi.

Quote
At risk is $17 trillion in U.S. real estate along the coasts, as well as some of America’s most valuable commodities.

People?


Commoditized, we've been Commoditized !!!
Terry

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: kassy on August 22, 2019, 03:18:55 PM
People can evacuate so theoretically they are safe.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bligh8 on August 22, 2019, 03:56:45 PM
Hi Kassy .. Not everyone can evacuate, only 22% of folks living in Manhattan have private transportation and 52% of folks living in NYC have private transportation.  Some of the poorer folks in NYC have lived there for generations, meaning Aunt Jenny lives right down the block, so… nowhere to go. Now, I'm referring to Hurricane Sandy which did flood lower Manhattan and much of the five boroughs.  Some if not many of the corner bodegas ran out of food within several days, life became marginalized for many and all of this was with a 13ft storm surge.   
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: kassy on August 22, 2019, 04:08:42 PM
Hi bligh8, i know that is why i said theoretically.  ;)

 
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on August 22, 2019, 04:25:57 PM
I once had a conversation with a retired FEMA coordinator regarding evacuation plans for a natural disaster in the tri-state area (New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut). Between them there are over 20-23 Million people within 50 miles (80 km) of the coast.  ... Evacuation is not an option.

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 22, 2019, 07:28:52 PM
I lived in NYC (Manhattan) for a year and once met a 20-something fellow who said he'd been to Brooklyn once, but he didn't see any reason to ever leave Manhattan again.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on August 24, 2019, 04:52:16 PM
The tropics are starting to sizzle with tropical formation likely off the US coast this weekend
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

(https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/190823140244-weather-tropical-development-all-exlarge-169.jpg)

(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/144923_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bligh8 on August 24, 2019, 05:29:52 PM
Thx Vox

Hurricanes are a capricious thing, but still ..  I don't like the looks of this
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on August 24, 2019, 06:02:52 PM
Water temps ahead of the storm and low upper atmosphere wind shear favor development.  However, the mid-level air is dry, so the forecast is less certain, especially with such a small, poorly defined system.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on August 25, 2019, 12:56:02 AM
It has a name now ...

Tropical Storm Dorian Forms; Forecast to Reach Lesser Antilles Tuesday
https://weather.com/amp/storms/hurricane/news/2019-08-24-tropical-storm-dorian-hurricane-caribbean.html

(https://www.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2019/08/dorian-fan.jpg)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on August 26, 2019, 12:54:43 AM
From the looks of it, this hurricane goes south. I'l be lucky to get rain out of this. More likely an intolerably hot day.  I gladly take a hot day over even a small hurricane like this although some tropical storm rain would be welcomed by my mango.


The shopping centers are busy with people making provisions. There is no panic. Only ordered preparation. I love it. September is the months for hurricanes, so a nice early little scare is great. The people are getting ready. However, the government is too busy playing musical chairs to help organize hurricane preparation like the northern folk prepare for winter.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2019, 01:56:44 PM
I’ll just leave this here....

Here's Why We Cannot Just 'Nuke' Hurricanes
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/05/13/heres-why-we-cannot-just-nuke-hurricanes/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on August 26, 2019, 03:20:53 PM
From the looks of it, this hurricane goes south. I'l be lucky to get rain out of this. More likely an intolerably hot day.  I gladly take a hot day over even a small hurricane like this although some tropical storm rain would be welcomed by my mango.


The shopping centers are busy with people making provisions. There is no panic. Only ordered preparation. I love it. September is the months for hurricanes, so a nice early little scare is great. The people are getting ready. However, the government is too busy playing musical chairs to help organize hurricane preparation like the northern folk prepare for winter.

The latest has the storm tracking a little further north - and closer to Puerto Rico.  Still quite a bit of uncertainty with this storm, but it is forecast to just reach hurricane strength.  Rainfall is not forecast to be excessive.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2019, 03:40:47 PM
Dorian, and ??

Tropical Storm Dorian up to 60 mph, forecast tracks target Florida - Orlando Sentinel
Quote
In its “key messages” about the storm, the hurricane center said, “Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Lesser Antilles, where tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should refer to advice from local government officials and products from their local meteorological service for additional information.”

Forecasters also said the storm is likely to bring 2-4 inches of rain — with isolated amounts as high as 6 inches — across portions of the Lesser Antilles.

Quote
Meanwhile, forecasters are still watching a low pressure system off the coast of Florida that is expected to move farther into the Atlantic away from the state and has a 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next two days, 80% in the next five days.

“Interests along the coasts of South and North Carolina should continue to monitor the progress of this system,” forecasters said. “An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Monday, if necessary.”
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-ne-tropical-storm-dorian-update-20190825-koiaunm2zfcajj527oupyj6dyu-story.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: DrTskoul on August 26, 2019, 05:48:04 PM
Next at a coast near you...

Trump Reportedly Discussed Nuking Hurricanes Headed To The United States (https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5d632362e4b02cc97c8fbf9b)

Quote
Axios reported Sunday that President Donald Trump suggested “multiple times” that Homeland and national security officials explore using nuclear bombs to stop hurricanes from striking the United States.

During one hurricane briefing at the White House, Trump responded: “I got it. Why don’t we nuke them?” according to an unnamed source who was present, Axios reported. “We drop a bomb inside the eye of the hurricane and it disrupts it. Why can’t we do that?”

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on August 26, 2019, 06:21:21 PM
Slim Pickens rides again!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on August 26, 2019, 06:27:40 PM
Is He F*ck'n Crazy! ... (Sorry, rhetorical question - answer already known)

(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/552/585/4a1.png)

NOAA FAQ: Subject: C5c) Why don't we try to destroy tropical cyclones by nuking them ?
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/C5c.html

As NOAA says, among the many reasons nuking a hurricane would be unlikely to make any difference at all is the sheer amount of energy contained inside of a storm: “The heat release is equivalent to a 10-megaton nuclear bomb exploding every 20 minutes,” that is, a hurricane is already releasing energy roughly equivalent to three Hiroshima- or Nagasaki-sized bombs every hour. Moreover, downgrading a catastrophic Category 5 storm to a merely strong Category 2 would require, by NOAA’s calculations, moving half-a-billion tons of air.

... As the understanding that the problem of radiation was not “merely one of detail” grew, strict parameters grew up around the atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons. Soon, ideas like that which Trump has evidently suggested were cast to the fringes of scientific thinking; Trump’s idea would actually now be prohibited under international law by the Peaceful Nuclear Explosions Treaty.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on August 26, 2019, 07:42:09 PM
As NOAA says, among the many reasons nuking a hurricane would be unlikely to make any difference at all is the sheer amount of energy contained inside of a storm: “The heat release is equivalent to a 10-megaton nuclear bomb exploding every 20 minutes,”
Energy of nuclear bomb theoretically unlimited. 50 Mt was reached. It's easy to say that hurricanes are too big to change. But what if bomb is big too?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: kassy on August 26, 2019, 07:58:38 PM
Here is the resume for your friendly 50 MT+ bomb desiring a place in the lightweight division:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsar_Bomba
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on August 26, 2019, 09:13:50 PM
As NOAA says, among the many reasons nuking a hurricane would be unlikely to make any difference at all is the sheer amount of energy contained inside of a storm: “The heat release is equivalent to a 10-megaton nuclear bomb exploding every 20 minutes,”
Energy of nuclear bomb theoretically unlimited. 50 Mt was reached. It's easy to say that hurricanes are too big to change. But what if bomb is big too?
The criteria to kill a hurricane is to remove energy - not add it.

Say you opt for the nukes. 100 Mt each. 12-20 hurricanes per season - every year.

And after you nuke em the fallout travels by tradewind to the US. Mar a Lago will be glowing in the dark.

How long do you think people downwind of this are going too start complaining?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bbr2314 on August 26, 2019, 09:15:22 PM
As NOAA says, among the many reasons nuking a hurricane would be unlikely to make any difference at all is the sheer amount of energy contained inside of a storm: “The heat release is equivalent to a 10-megaton nuclear bomb exploding every 20 minutes,”
Energy of nuclear bomb theoretically unlimited. 50 Mt was reached. It's easy to say that hurricanes are too big to change. But what if bomb is big too?
The criteria to kill a hurricane is to remove energy - not add it.

Say you opt for the nukes. 100 Mt each. 12-20 hurricanes per season - every year.

And after you nuke em the fallout travels by tradewind to the US. Mar a Lago will be glowing in the dark.

How long do you think people downwind of this are going too start complaining?
Technically this could be good for our abundant human problem
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on August 26, 2019, 09:29:57 PM
The criteria to kill a hurricane is to remove energy - not add it.
I assumed, this can increase intensity. However, I'm not sure.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on August 26, 2019, 09:31:16 PM
But what if bomb is big too?

What if the bomb is causing radioactive fallout?

Do we seriously consider even discussing that?

Everything other than making jokes about this bogus puts us in a losing position alright.

So here is the biggest joke: Donald Trump
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on August 26, 2019, 09:39:36 PM
Similar event may occur without our actions and radioactive fallout.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bluice on August 26, 2019, 09:47:19 PM
Because hurricanes aren’t bad enough, let’s spice them up with radioactive fallout.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on August 26, 2019, 09:54:40 PM
Let's talk about Episode 1: Education

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-DdK7BqWa8
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: TerryM on August 26, 2019, 11:29:04 PM
We could dig a Really Big Hole in the ground, and when the hurricane fell into it we could just cap it off!!
As a Canadian can I get a grant, from say North Carolina? to pursue this study?
Pass that joint around quick - I may be onto something that will save the world tm
Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on August 27, 2019, 06:03:49 PM
The latest forecast for Dorian has it skirting Puerto Rico and the D.R.  The winds are expected to fall just short of hurricane strength.  The biggest threat appears to be rain, but even that seems to be six inches or less across the islands.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2019, 06:51:01 PM
Quote
The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel)
8/27/19, 10:52 AM
#Dorian 11 a.m. update:
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1166362940091580416
Image below.
 :o
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 27, 2019, 08:02:21 PM
a hurricane is already releasing energy roughly equivalent to three Hiroshima- or Nagasaki-sized bombs every hour.

Three thousand Hiroshima or Nagasaki sized bombs.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 28, 2019, 03:05:06 AM
Quote
NOAA Satellites (@NOAASatellites) 8/27/19, 8:55 AM
#GOESEast captured this GeoColor imagery of one of the largest plumes of dust from the #SaharaDesert this year, blowing westward across the Atlantic Ocean on 8/26/2019. Interesting fact: Saharan dust can help suppress #hurricane development. More imagery: go.usa.gov/xVjHa
https://twitter.com/noaasatellites/status/1166333315579666432
Image below; gif at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on August 28, 2019, 02:21:13 PM
Dorain has shifted eastward, and is now expected to contact the northeastern portion of Puerto Rico, and San Jaun.  Winds are still at tropical storm force and not expected to strengthen before landfall.  The greatest threat is rainfall, which could top 6".  This is a very small, compact storm, but still capable of causing local damage.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on August 28, 2019, 02:45:20 PM
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_key_messages+png/114938_key_messages_sm.png)

And TS Erin
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL062019_wind_probs_34_F120+png/083351.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on August 28, 2019, 03:04:38 PM
Interesting pictorial combination of the two storms.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on August 28, 2019, 04:20:13 PM
I guess we will see any shortfalls in fixing things after Hurricane Maria as Dorian passes through Puerto Rico.
EDIT:
NHC are saying that there will be 85 100 knot sustained winds by the time it reaches Florida

And just to make things a bit worse, the next King Tides in Florida are Aug 29th to September 3rd, and the hurricane is due to hit Florida early Monday morning 2 September.

Quote
However, once the cyclone reaches the western Atlantic well east of the Bahamas, it will encounter a favorable environment of low shear and warm waters, resulting in a more marked intensification. The NHC foreast is more aggressive than the previous one, and brings Dorian to category 3 intensity by the end of the period. This forecast very closely follows the intensity
consensus, the HCCA model, and the SHIPS guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands, Culebra, and Vieques today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in Puerto Rico today with hurricane conditions possible.

2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands could produce flash flooding during the next
couple of days.  Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of
the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern Untied
States later this week and into early next week.

3. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds is
increasing in the central and northwestern Bahamas and along the
Florida east coast, although it is too soon to determine where these
hazards will occur. Residents in these areas should ensure that
they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact
forecast track of Dorian's center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 17.5N  64.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 18.7N  65.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 20.5N  67.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 22.4N  68.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 24.2N  69.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  31/1200Z 26.5N  74.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  01/1200Z 27.7N  77.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  02/1200Z 28.6N  80.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on August 28, 2019, 07:22:05 PM
Dorian is Shaping Up to Be a Major Threat to the Southeastern United States
https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/08/a-major-hurricane-may-hit-florida-late-this-weekend/

Current forecast calls for a Category 3 hurricane to hit near Kennedy Space Center.

The National Hurricane Center has ratcheted up its intensity forecast for Dorian, such that it is now predicted to come ashore as a Category 3 hurricane on Monday morning, near Kennedy Space Center on Florida's Atlantic coast.

The intensity forecast has really ramped up for a couple of reasons. First of all, the storm is no longer expected to interact with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. Its movement is also slower, meaning it will have several days over the very warm waters near the Bahamas, with moderate wind shear. Finally, the upper-atmosphere pattern is very favorable to intensification.

(https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/AL05_2019082806_GEFS_large.png)

... A final landfall remains possible from north of Miami to Jacksonville. There are also questions about where the hurricane moves after it crosses the Florida peninsula. Dorian now seems more likely than not to reemerge in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and eventually turn north, perhaps making a second landfall anywhere from the Florida Panhandle to Southeastern Louisiana.

(https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/wpc_qpf_168h_p.us_se.png)

... A final concern is heavy rainfall. The steering currents by this weekend, and into early next week, are not overly pronounced. A slower-moving storm means that some areas of the Southeastern United States—Florida, Georgia, Alabama, or the Carolinas—would see a large amount of precipitation and flooding.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: FrostKing70 on August 28, 2019, 07:29:59 PM
Some of the models are taking Dorian to borderline Cat 4 or Cat 4 strength before it reaches Florida.   I hope the intensity stays on the lower end.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: wili on August 28, 2019, 07:31:58 PM
Soooo, it's still possible that it will be a direct hit on Mara Lago, wiping it from the face of the earth? :)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on August 28, 2019, 07:43:22 PM
Soooo, it's still possible that it will be a direct hit on Mara Lago, wiping it from the face of the earth? :)
Unfortunately, at the moment looks like Dorian will landfall quite a bit North.
But we can hope. NHC says there is a 200 mile possible difference in direction in 5 days forward.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: KiwiGriff on August 28, 2019, 10:12:34 PM
Dorian looks to be a real threat .
Spring tides and Florida is  already saturated from heavy rain.
Could those who have gods please put in the word or two .
It would be salubrious if we had a landfall at.
26°40′37″N 80°02′13″W  11:04 AM EDT Sunday.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDFQpnEXkAIyxOt.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: dnem on August 29, 2019, 01:03:26 PM
Well, this morning's NHC discussion says that the GFS is a north outlier and most of the other solutions are farther south, so we can still hope!!

"The models, and their ensembles,
continue to diverge after 48 hours and have not really budged from
their respective solutions compared to yesterday.  The GFS
is a northern outlier from the rest of the guidance, showing a
weaker ridge and bringing Dorian close to the Florida/Georgia
border, while the UKMET and ECMWF models show stronger ridges
and remain the southernmost solutions near South Florida."
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on August 29, 2019, 02:06:21 PM
Much depends on the Bermuda high.  That will determine whether the storm hits southern Florida or gets pulled further north.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on August 29, 2019, 05:12:47 PM
Dorian - From NHC discussion 21 - (5 knots stronger at landfall)

Quote
The new NHC track forecast is virtually unchanged from the
previous advisory, and lies very close to the multi-model consensus.
It should be noted that the ECMWF, UKMET, and HFIP corrected
consensus models remain south of the official forecast. The spread
of the deterministic models and the various ensemble guidance is
still considerable at days 4 and 5, and it is too soon to specify
where along the Florida east coast the greatest impacts could
occur.

Key Messages:

1. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds this weekend continues to increase in the northwestern
Bahamas, and hurricane watches could be issued there tonight or
Friday.  Residents should have their hurricane plan in place and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

2. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge
along portions of the Florida east coast late this weekend or early
next week, although it is too soon to determine where the highest
storm surge will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan
in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida
east coast and peninsula late this weekend and early next week
continues to increase, although it is too soon to determine where
the strongest winds will occur.

4. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected
to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the
southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next
week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 21.4N  67.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 22.9N  68.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 24.5N  69.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 25.6N  71.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  31/1200Z 26.3N  73.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 27.0N  76.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 27.5N  79.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  03/1200Z 28.1N  81.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on August 29, 2019, 06:57:43 PM
Hurricane Dorian Forecast to Reach Florida as a Category 4 Storm on Labor Day
https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/08/29/us/dorian-forecast-thursday-wxc/index.html

Hurricane Dorian is now forecast to be a Category 4 storm -- with sustained winds of around 130 mph -- when it makes its expected landfall in the US on Monday, likely somewhere along Florida's Atlantic coast, the National Hurricane Center says.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: rboyd on August 29, 2019, 08:14:13 PM
The middle of the storm track is taking it very close to West Palm Beach, with a lot of very expensive property to get hot by a Cat 4. The storm may also exit Florida into the Gulf (NOAA's forecast algorithms do not agree on whether or not a ridge keeping it south will weaken), in which case it could restrengthen and do another landfall.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: wili on August 29, 2019, 08:51:14 PM
So a direct hit on Mara Lago as cat 5 is within the realm of possibility! Awesome!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on August 30, 2019, 02:43:14 AM
(https://s.w-x.co/wu/hwrf-aug29.png)

Predicted wind speeds (colors) and pressure (black lines) for Dorian at 11 pm EDT Sunday, September 1, 2019, from the 6Z Thursday, August 29, 2019 run of the HWRF model. This model, one of our top three performing intensity models at long ranges last year, predicted that Dorian would make landfall as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds on the central coast of Florida.

(https://s.w-x.co/wu/ohc-aug29.jpg)

Oceanic heat content—an important factor in rapid intensification—will be greater than 75 kilojoules per square centimeter along Dorian's projected track much of Thursday, and above 50 until the hurricane reaches Florida. Such values are commonly associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. The numbers within each icon show the hours ahead of the forecast issuance time (5 am EDT Thursday).

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Category-1-Hurricane-Dorian-Expected-be-Cat-4-Sunday
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: KiwiGriff on August 30, 2019, 05:55:46 AM
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_key_messages+png/025521_key_messages_sm.png)
96 hr Forecast
Valid at: 8:00 PM AST September 02, 2019
Location: 27.0 N, -79.8 W
Maximum Wind: 120 knots (140 mph)
Wind Gusts: 145 knots (165 mph)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/025521.shtml?gm_track#contents
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: miki on August 30, 2019, 06:08:15 AM
96 hr Forecast
Valid at: 8:00 PM AST September 02, 2019
Location: 27.0 N, -79.8 W
Maximum Wind: 120 knots (140 mph)
Wind Gusts: 145 knots (165 mph)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/025521.shtml?gm_track#contents

And Mar a Lago be it  ;D
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on August 30, 2019, 06:43:07 AM
Former PM of Canada Kim Campbell concurs ...

I’m rooting for a direct hit on Mar a Lago!
https://mobile.twitter.com/AKimCampbell/status/1166772072002883584
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: budmantis on August 30, 2019, 07:32:29 AM
For sure! While Trump is there!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on August 30, 2019, 07:59:42 AM
So much hate over here.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: nanning on August 30, 2019, 08:09:02 AM
From the tropicaltidbits graph:
Min MSLP: 936.7mb

 :o
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Ajpope85 on August 30, 2019, 08:27:46 AM
So much hate over here.

Gee, I wonder why.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: oren on August 30, 2019, 08:42:39 AM
I intensely dislike Trump, but I'd appreciate it if folks would refrain from posting wishes for a direct hit anywhere, including Mar a Lago. A hurricane is not a pinpoint bomb and there are real people living there and around, I am sure they are unhappy and offended to read such stuff even if made jokingly.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: TerryM on August 30, 2019, 08:45:39 AM
^^
Ramen !
Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: KiwiGriff on August 30, 2019, 09:43:39 AM
Schadenfreude
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 30, 2019, 11:25:53 AM
From the tropicaltidbits graph:
Min MSLP: 936.7mb

From the 18Z run:
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: P-maker on August 30, 2019, 12:05:27 PM
According to Danish media, Trump has cancelled his visit to Poland this weekend. Apparently, he wishes to sit at home with Melanie in Washington watching the tragedies unfold...
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on August 30, 2019, 12:34:24 PM
Making sure FEMA protects his property is a higher duty than matters of state.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on August 30, 2019, 12:42:32 PM
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_tracks_latest.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_intensity_latest.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2019, 01:17:00 PM
Hurricane Dorian is days away from striking Florida and could be a monster storm by landfall
All of Florida is under a state of emergency and authorities are urging residents to stockpile a week's worth of food and supplies as Hurricane Dorian gathers strength and aims to slam the state as soon as Monday as a Category 4 storm.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/30/us/dorian-forecast-friday-wxc/index.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: rboyd on August 30, 2019, 05:20:53 PM
The NOAA track keeps bending a little south, placing the centre of the track very close to West Palm Beach. The more south it bends the worse the impact will be as it landfalls somewhere between West Palm Beach and Miami.

Even worse if it slows down substantially and pivots north parallel to the coastline as seems possible with how the NOAA track looks at the moment and the NOAA forecast comments. The hurricane has also intensified a little bit and has the possibility of getting even stronger.

Quote
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019

Both Air Force and NOAA aircraft have been sending data from Dorian
this morning. The flight-level winds from both planes have peaks
at 100 kt and the SFMR measured 94 kt. The minimum central pressure
has been oscillating between 972 and 976 mb. On this basis, the
initial intensity has been set to 95 kt. The upper-low currently
over Cuba which has been inducing some shear over Dorian is moving
away from the hurricane, and the upper-level flow pattern is
evolving toward a more favorable environment. In fact, the eye is
becoming apparent on visible images as we speak and in radar data
from the NOAA P3 aircraft. Consequently, the NHC forecast calls for
additional intensification, and Dorian is expected to become an
extremely dangerous major hurricane soon with additional
strengthening likely as it heads for the northwestern Bahamas and
the Florida peninsula.

Fixes from both reconnaissance planes indicate that Dorian is moving
toward the northwest of 310 degrees at 9 kt. As the upper-low over
Cuba moves westward and a strong subtropical ridge builds over the
western Atlantic as indicated by global models, the hurricane should
be forced to turn west-northwestward and westward on a track toward
the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. By the end of
the forecast period, the ridge is forecast to erode and the
steering currents will weaken, resulting in Dorian slowing down
considerably near and over the Florida peninsula.  This increases
the uncertainty in the track forecast during the 4- to -5 day
period, and also will lead to a prolonged duration of wind,
storm surge, and rainfall. The official forecast has been very
consistent so far, and this one is very similar to the previous
NHC forecast. It follows the multi-model and corrected consensus,
and is in the middle of the guidance envelope.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/145103_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/145103_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/301449.shtml (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/301449.shtml)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on August 30, 2019, 05:50:48 PM
Florida Gas Stations Are Running Out of Fuel as Hurricane Dorian Approaches
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/08/30/hurricane-dorian-gas-stations/2162882001/

Florida fuel stations are rapidly running out of gasoline as residents rush to fill up in preparation for Hurricane Dorian.

Residents who are hunkering down or evacuating are rushing to get fuel in areas like West Palm Beach, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Gainesville, Fort Myers and Naples.

Long lines are being reported in many areas, following a pattern similar to when Hurricane Irma caused outages throughout the state two years ago.

"This whole situation is more dire than I would’ve expected in terms of outages and people on the move and waiting for gas," said Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, an app that helps people find and save on fuel. "People are taking it seriously."

The outages are the worst in West Palm Beach, where 50% of stations didn't have fuel as of 9 a.m. Friday, according to GasBuddy.

In the Miami-Fort Lauderdale market, 49.3% of stations were out, while 45.7% were out in Ford Myers-Naples.


In Gainesville, 45.7% were out, while 31.3% were out in Orlando-Daytona Beach and 20.1% were out in Tampa-St. Petersburg.

The outages reflect a significant spike from 6:30 p.m. Thursday, when the worst market for outages was West Palm Beach at 28.5%.

“We, in the emergency declaration, waived service and truck rates for fuel trucks so we can increase capacity for fuel being brought in. We're also going to be starting today implementing Florida Highway Patrol escorts for fuel trucks so we can increase fueling in critical parts of the state," DeSantis said, according to CNN.

Long lines have also been reported across the state, especially in Brevard County.

Miami-Dade officials urged residents to fill up their gas tanks in case they needed to evacuate. They also urged people to fill gas cans for their generators and gas-powered tools.

------------------------------

If a major storm threatens South Florida, it could take up to 99 hours to get everyone out, studies show.

That’s more than four days for perhaps millions of evacuees from Miami-Dade and Broward counties to go through Palm Beach County and northward. But authorities typically don’t know a storm’s power or direction that far in advance.


https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/20190829/hurricane-dorian-evacuation-zone-maps-and-shelters

---------------------------

Florida Statewide Regional Evacuation Studies: Regional Population and Vulnerability Analysis
https://www.floridadisaster.org/dem/ITM/regional-evacuation-studies/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: nanning on August 30, 2019, 06:22:05 PM
From Jim Hunt's post above (thanks for the update Jim :) ):
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2569.msg225724.html#msg225724

Min MSLP: 914.9mb forecasted for this monday 9AM.

I'm astonished at this low pressure in the north atlantic.
If this would play out, wouldn't it be a record?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on August 30, 2019, 06:36:17 PM
It only needs one.......

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/301449.shtml
From Discussion 25 -another 5 knots on the wind-speed, and note the word "prolonged" as Dorian slow down as it nears Florida.
Quote
Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a
hurricane watch is in effect. Residents should execute their
hurricane plan and listen to advice given by local emergency
officials.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely along portions of the Florida east coast by early
next week, but it is too soon to determine where the highest storm
surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane
plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. A prolonged period of storm surge, high winds and rainfall is
likely in portions of Florida into next week, including the
possibility of hurricane-force winds over inland portions of the
Florida peninsula.

4. Heavy rains are expected over portions of the Bahamas, Florida,
and elsewhere in the southeastern United States this weekend into
the middle of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 24.5N  69.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 25.3N  71.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 25.9N  72.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 26.3N  74.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 26.6N  76.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 26.8N  78.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 27.0N  80.4W  110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
120H  04/1200Z 29.0N  81.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: dnem on August 30, 2019, 06:39:46 PM
Min MSLP: 914.9mb forecasted for this monday 9AM.

I'm astonished at this low pressure in the north atlantic.
If this would play out, wouldn't it be a record?

No, Wilma got down to 882 mb.  Several have been in the upper 800s.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on August 30, 2019, 06:43:09 PM
That's almost the entire east-coast. And with just a few days out.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on August 30, 2019, 06:48:10 PM
There is an interesting divergence between the GFS and European models.  The GFS model has the storm turning northward much earlier, hitting Florida closer to the Jacksonville area.  The European model has the storm hitting south Florida, near Ft. Lauderdale, and crossing the state and entering the Gulf of Mexico near Tampa, before turning northward.  The composite cone has the storm hitting central Florida and turning northward over the peninsula, leading to faster weakening.  The models are fairly consistent, until late Sunday, when the divergence occurs.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 30, 2019, 07:48:18 PM
So much hate over here.

Gee, I wonder why.

Indeed. The current occupant of the White House, Hair Furor, is the personification of hate.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on August 30, 2019, 07:53:01 PM
There is a big difference. Trump tries to protect it's home. If we all did that, there would be no climate crisis, no immigrant crisis.... But the hate you find here, that's blind hate. You hate him, because you don't agree with him.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on August 30, 2019, 07:56:56 PM
They still predict it's going to be a hurricane  after he moved north half of the state. Probably he keeps getting power from the ocean. That would be the worst case scenario.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: wili on August 30, 2019, 08:44:22 PM
Eric Holthaus is saying this could become a coastal flooding catastrophe, from Miami to NoCarolina

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hurricane-dorian_n_5d68be08e4b02bc6bb37451e
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: KiwiGriff on August 30, 2019, 09:29:29 PM
"King" tide this week.
Surge and wave heights are a function of fetch ,wind speed and time.
The storm is powerful and traveling slowly.
Massive coastal damage is unavoidable at this point even if the storm stays offshore as some models predict.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on August 30, 2019, 10:18:04 PM
Trump ... You hate him, because you don't agree with him.
That man through his actions is a real threat to the future well being of my family, perhaps even their lives. Better him dead than my family.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on August 30, 2019, 10:47:44 PM
Hear, hear!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: TerryM on August 30, 2019, 10:50:02 PM
"King" tide this week.
Surge and wave heights are a function of fetch ,wind speed and time.
The storm is powerful and traveling slowly.
Massive coastal damage is unavoidable at this point even if the storm stays offshore as some models predict.
Miami has been having problems with King Tides without a cloud on the horizon.


It's 440 Miles (710km) from Miami Fl. to Valdosta Ga. If you plan to flee start yesterday. That window is closing/has closed.
This would be a wonderful time for Floridians to visit relatives in Montana.

Do we have any active posters in the area?
Let us know when you've reached safety.
Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: TerryM on August 30, 2019, 10:53:12 PM
Trump ... You hate him, because you don't agree with him.
That man through his actions is a real threat to the future well being of my family, perhaps even their lives. Better him dead than my family anyone I care about.
Raman !
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on August 30, 2019, 10:54:56 PM
Why, because he's drilling for oil ? Than you should tell your family to sell their car. And to stop travelling, and stop going to the supermarket. And nobody will drill for oil anymore. But until today the US needs 20 million barrels every day. That's what feeds their economy. That's how they make their money to go to the supermarket and to travel the world.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on August 30, 2019, 10:59:00 PM
This is not a political thread. Take it to the Trump thread.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: TerryM on August 30, 2019, 11:06:06 PM
Lest anyone be worrying, my friend, the young Chinese PHD I've mentioned from time to time is safe at Waterloo as the Americans still haven't decided whether her presence on a American campus represents a threat to students taking advanced STEM courses. She won't be headed for the University of Florida, or any other American institution of higher learning until the Americans have made their decision, and until she has re-evaluated her options.
She's teaching a few courses at UW for the coming semester(s)
Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on August 30, 2019, 11:07:57 PM
And something els. Because of that high population density over here, the place is a cancer paradise. So it's more like you killing me.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2019, 11:53:08 PM
The Weather Channel on Twitter: "If the current forecast for #Dorian is correct, the United States will have three straight years with a major #hurricane landfall (Category 3 or stronger). That hasn't happened in nearly 60 years:”
https://mobile.twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1167234593822576640
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2019, 12:40:50 AM
Quote
David Lilley (EastNorCarWX1251) (@norcareas1251) 8/30/19, 3:58 PM
Any idea what that ring-shaped cloud formation in the eye is? It's the first time I've seen such a formation in any hurricane.
https://twitter.com/norcareas1251/status/1167527062057472001
- You may've read double eyeWALL. That's a sign of an eyewall replacement cycle. Dorian already underwent it, hence why it's blown up in intensity. Double eyes don't exist, unfortunately. That would be cool to see a hurricane stare at you lol
Other guesses, mostly tongue-in-cheek, in the replies at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: morganism on August 31, 2019, 01:08:51 AM
With a blocking front headed towards AL/FL, it may stall Dorian long enough for the next 'cane to catch up.
The steering winds for that new one aren't blocked, or looping, so it may blow thru the Keys Gap, and then suck back up behind that blocking high, giving a double hit to NC/SC...
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2019, 02:57:53 AM
Quote
NOAA Aircraft Operations Center (@NOAA_HurrHunter) 8/29/19, 2:17 PM
LAKELAND, FL - #NOAA49 prepares for a Hurricane #Dorian reconnaissance mission with the first all female three-pilot flight crew, featuring Capt. Kristie Twining, Cmdr. Rebecca Waddington, and Lt. Lindsey Norman.
Get the latest forecast at hurricanes.gov.
#FlyNOAA
https://twitter.com/noaa_hurrhunter/status/1167139212694441985
Photo below.

You can track the hurricane hunter plane here (it’s up right now):
N49RF Live Flight Tracking and History (GLF4 owned by UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE) FlightAware
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N49RF
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2019, 03:02:01 AM
Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 830 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 ...DORIAN STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that Dorian has strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 130 mph (215 km/h).
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT5+shtml/310027.shtml
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2019, 03:21:29 AM
The Weather Channel:  25% of Florida gas stations are out of gas.  State troopers are escorting tankers to re-supply.
Image below from Gas Buddy.  Red = no gas.  Yellow = limited fuel options.

Mandatory evacuations posted for Brevard County (Melbourne / Space Coast area).

NASA Space Center Prepares for Hurricane Dorian as Satellites Track Storm
https://www.space.com/hurricane-dorian-nasa-kennedy-space-center-prep.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2019, 03:38:19 AM
Quote
Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) 8/30/19, 5:42 PM
Just a remarkable view of Major Hurricane #Dorian this evening. This is a picture of power.
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1167553162787663875
Image below.  Gif at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: sark on August 31, 2019, 04:41:11 AM
it apparently ticked up to 190mph at 1000ft

https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/1167603880018042882

cat 4 with a dropsonde measuring 951mb

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1167578198588174336
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on August 31, 2019, 06:17:17 AM
Where will landfall be?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: nanning on August 31, 2019, 06:37:56 AM
For affected people without a car or without petrol:

take the train or bus north.
There are trains and busses in Florida I guess(?).

Tor, I'm not sure but weren't you living on the north-west side of the Florida peninsula?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: KiwiGriff on August 31, 2019, 06:52:07 AM
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Quote
LOCATION...25.5N 71.4W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES
Cat four
Plenty of time and energy available to hit cat five .
Eye wall replacements could  push the storm out wider.
Big mo fo if you live in the cone  get out now .

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on August 31, 2019, 09:49:44 AM
Dorian, 60 frames, 20 minutes incrememts.

Quite a beautiful beast...
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: oren on August 31, 2019, 11:37:02 AM
Quote
The initial motion is now 290/10.  A low- to mid-level subtropical
ridge to the north of the hurricane should steer it west-
northwestward to westward for the next 48 h or so, with the forward
speed becoming very slow as the center passes near or over the
Abacos and Grand Bahama. The track guidance for this part of the
track is tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is near the
ECMWF, UKMET, and HCCA corrected consensus models.  The track
forecast becomes much more problematic after 48 h.  The global
models the NHC normally uses, along with the regional HWRF and HMON
models, have made another shift to the east to the point where none
of them forecast Dorian to make landfall in Florida.
  However, the
UKMET ensemble mean still brings the hurricane over the Florida
peninsula, as do several GFS and ECMWF ensemble members.  The new
track forecast for 72-120 h will be moved eastward to stay east of
the coast of Florida, and it lies between the old forecast and the
various consensus models.  Additional adjustments to the forecast
track may be necessary later today if current model trends continue.
It should be noted that the new forecast track does not preclude
Dorian making landfall on the Florida coast, as large portions of
the coast remain in the track cone of uncertainty.  Also,
significant impacts could occur even if the center stays offshore.


Hopefully Dorian will continue to shift to the east and miss Florida entirely.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on August 31, 2019, 01:37:26 PM
Dorian:- Mar-A-Lago escapes the worst ?(heavy sigh)
But if it does slide slowly up the coast of Florida..........
Looks definite that any Rich Men's Big Toys (i.e. boats) still in Grand Bahama are heading for the scrapheap. (Makes one really, really sad.)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/310848.shtml
Quote
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  28 (Extracts)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

Dorian continues to look impressive in satellite imagery this morning, with a fairly symmetric area of cold cloud tops surrounding a 10-15 n mi wide eye.  Based on this, the initial intensity remains 120 kt.

The initial motion is now 290/10.  A low- to mid-level subtropical
ridge to the north of the hurricane should steer it west-
northwestward to westward for the next 48 h or so, with the forward
speed becoming very slow as the center passes near or over the
Abacos and Grand Bahama. The track guidance for this part of the
track is tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is near the
ECMWF, UKMET, and HCCA corrected consensus models. 

The track forecast becomes much more problematic after 48 h.  The global models the NHC normally uses, along with the regional HWRF and HMON models, have made another shift to the east to the point where none of them forecast Dorian to make landfall in Florida. However, the UKMET ensemble mean still brings the hurricane over the Florida peninsula, as do several GFS and ECMWF ensemble members. 

Additional adjustments to the forecast track may be necessary later today if current model trends continue.It should be noted that the new forecast track does not preclude Dorian making landfall on the Florida coast, as large portions of the coast remain in the track cone of uncertainty.  Also,
significant impacts could occur even if the center stays offshore.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, particularly on the Abaco Islands and Grand
Bahama Island. 

2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the early to middle part of next week

3. The risk of strong winds and life-threatening storm surge is increasing along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina during the middle of next week. 

4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0900Z 25.8N  72.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 26.1N  74.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 26.5N  75.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 26.7N  77.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 26.9N  78.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 27.5N  79.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 29.5N  80.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 32.0N  80.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 31, 2019, 02:05:44 PM
For affected people without a car or without petrol:

take the train or bus north.
There are trains and busses in Florida I guess(?).

Tor, I'm not sure but weren't you living on the north-west side of the Florida peninsula?

As for passenger rail other than city commuter systems...not really...

Amtrak rail map is below.

Appears to be 2 trains daily to certain Florida cities.

http://cwrr.com/Amtrak/e_fl_s.html

With a population of 21.65 million and 126 million tourists annually, you'd think there would be more than 2 trains.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2019, 02:36:31 PM
Emergency Info | Florida Disaster
https://www.floridadisaster.org/info/

Evacuation orders; apps, links, and a phone number if you need help.

——-

I am also concerned about storm surge and flooding in southeast coastal cities like Charleston and Wilmington.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 31, 2019, 02:45:49 PM
Looks like the Amtrak option is not longer available.

Amtrak

"Due to severe weather expected to impact Florida and the Southeast, Amtrak is canceling select Southeast services beginning on Saturday, Aug. 31. For the safety of our customers and employees, the following trains will not operate.

"Service canceled from Saturday, Aug. 31, to Monday, Sept. 2, includes:

Silver Star 91 (New York – Miami)
Silver Meteor 97 (Miami – New York)
"Service canceled from Saturday, Aug. 31, to Tuesday, Sept. 3, includes:

Silver Star 91 & 92 (New York – Miami)
Silver Meteor 97 & 98 (Miami – New York)
"Service canceled from Sunday, Sept. 1, to Tuesday, Sept. 3, includes:

Auto Train 52 & 53 (Lorton, Va., - Sanford, Fla.)
"Bus transportation will not be provided for canceled trains. Service will be restored pending improved conditions.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on August 31, 2019, 05:51:08 PM
The latest forecast has Dorian skirting the entire southeast coast and heading out to sea.  Florida and other states may have expected landfall from this storm.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: crandles on August 31, 2019, 05:53:17 PM

Hopefully Dorian will continue to shift to the east and miss Florida entirely.

so far

(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/145744_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)

but coast still well inside cone
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on August 31, 2019, 09:03:09 PM
RAMMB update

60 frames, 10-minute increments.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 01, 2019, 01:02:48 AM
Hurricane Dorian: Trump Flies to Golf Club as Likelihood of Direct Hit Recedes
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/31/hurricane-dorian-category-4-florida-bahamas

On Friday, the president had given the impression as he left the White House that he would spend Saturday at Camp David with experts, monitoring Dorian’s progress, and would return to Washington on Sunday to attend a briefing at Fema.

However, Trump went to his Virginia golf club, having travelled there by helicopter from Camp David in Maryland.

Stephanie Grisham, the White House press secretary, said ... that it was better for him to remain in the US after cancelling a planned weekend trip to Poland.

(https://www.mercurynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/golftoon16.jpg)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on September 01, 2019, 09:08:04 AM
A comparison to show the trajectory.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on September 01, 2019, 10:01:43 AM
New storms are forming.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: nanning on September 01, 2019, 10:35:06 AM
Hi Archimid,

How are you doing? Can you please tell us about the situation?
Has Puerto Rico had any problems from the passing of Dorian?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bbr2314 on September 01, 2019, 11:03:54 AM
These slums will get the right front quadrant of the storm.

https://ewnews.com/3041-reside-in-six-abaco-shantytowns-report-reveals

They are situated directly in the path on Abaco Island.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bbr2314 on September 01, 2019, 11:08:42 AM
2,600 people in "The Mudd" and "Peas"

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Marsh+Harbour,+The+Bahamas/@26.5276105,-77.0633197,1288a,35y,39.12t/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x89248250e7282c21:0x1bd6a06bcb76260d!8m2!3d26.5241896!4d-77.0910645
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Bernard on September 01, 2019, 11:59:17 AM
Impressive current image of Dorian at nullscholl
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-76.56,25.12,2250/loc=-66.515,26.285
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: KiwiGriff on September 01, 2019, 01:19:45 PM
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/090018_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
Models are shifting back to the west.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on September 01, 2019, 02:06:09 PM
Dorian was very weird. I spent the day of Wednesday thinking nothing would happen to me because the storm was going to exit south. As the forecast changed I went to bed thinking the storm will pass right over my place. The next morning as I was cleaning the gutters and preparing the back up power I heard the hurricane entirely missed us.  I was happy.

I believe the island of Culebra suffered some damage, but the winds and water missed the big island.

Really not much to tell except that I'm very happy it missed us. It served as a warning for the rest of the season.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 01, 2019, 02:59:03 PM
Dorian Now a Category 5 Storm
https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1168130386628448257

Hurricane Dorian now has maximum sustained winds of 160 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. This would put the storm in the highest category on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Dorian will be capable of catastrophic damage as it tracks towards the Bahamas today into tomorrow.

Dorian is powerful but compact. Satellite images of Dorian portray the hurricane as a relatively small feature, with hurricane-force winds "only" extending out from the center by about 30 miles, while tropical storm-force winds extend outward from the center of the hurricane by about 105 miles.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1167824051823206407
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on September 01, 2019, 03:04:37 PM
Already there.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: oren on September 01, 2019, 04:35:01 PM
Monster Dorian upgraded to 175 mph, 922mb.
Still good chances of a Florida near miss.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: nanning on September 01, 2019, 05:07:02 PM
<snip>
Really not much to tell except that I'm very happy it missed us. It served as a warning for the rest of the season.

Thanks Archimid. I don't know you but I am happy for you.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on September 01, 2019, 05:12:03 PM
180 mph, 913 mb, according to the latest advisory (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/).
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: dnem on September 01, 2019, 05:15:42 PM
With just very slightly different steering conditions for this hurricane, Florida would suffer a $250-500 billion disaster.  It looks like this bullet will be dodged, but one will find its mark before long.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 01, 2019, 06:48:33 PM
Dorian has grown larger in size. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). Ham radio reports indicate that Hope Town in the Abacos just reported wind gust to 100 mph.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: sark on September 01, 2019, 07:14:28 PM
185mph at landfall at Elbow Cay, Abacos

"Labor Day" 1935

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1168204860577026049

Gusts 220+

906-908mb and falling

Cat 6
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Bernard on September 01, 2019, 07:26:13 PM
The latest forecast is closer to Florida coast, and I'm afraid the next one will be yet closer. Models are models, but looking at nullschool the patterns of wind over Atlantic, and the large low deepening in the Gulf, I don't understand how it can make any soon an abrupt shift to the North, against current general circulation.

[edited : just had a conversation with someone-who-knows-best, saying nullschool only shows surface wind, and hurricanes are very sensitive to vertical shift. Sometimes we forget that atmosphere in not in 2-D]
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 01, 2019, 09:07:52 PM
Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) 9/1/19, 2:18 PM
Here's the latest 12Z HWRF simulation for Major Hurricane #Dorian. The high resolution model continues to promote an impactful Florida landfall during the early Wednesday morning hours. The Florida threat is real and preparations should be considered.
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1168226646710788097
Images below; gif at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 01, 2019, 09:08:26 PM
... As the storm’s eye passed over the island, Bahamian Prime Minister Hubert Minnis announced that parts of Marsh Harbor, a town of more than 6,000, appeared to be “underwater,” and reports surfaced of desperate residents in now-roofless homes trying to seek shelter from rising floodwaters.

He continued: “I can say that in the Marsh Harbour area of Abaco, parts of it is already underwater and in some areas you cannot tell the difference as to the beginning of the street or where the ocean begins.

“And they have not yet been hit by the brunt of the storm,” he said.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3jCz6VY1xrc
Marsh Harbour area of Abaco

Residents of the northern Abaco islands and Grand Bahama — including villagers who stayed put on low-lying cays — were hunkering down for a siege that could see some parts of this nation of nearly 400,000 people withstand hurricane conditions for two days.

On the Abacos islands, violent waves and lashing wind and rain tore apart docks and power lines and flooded roads as Dorian strengthened to Category 5 right before it struck. Images on social media showed flooded, impassible roads. Phone lines went down, isolating thousands.

Low-lying Marsh Harbour, the largest town in the Abacos, suffered storm surges. Officials said the Mudds, a shantytown of Haitian immigrants, was severely damaged. Roofs were blown off hotels and homes. A video surfaced of one man begging for help as storm rain raged inside his home.

More than 500 people lived on cays off Central Abaco and that most had remained despite evacuation orders.

https://beta.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/dorian-rips-apart-docks-floods-roads-in-northern-bahamas/2019/09/01/a358e27a-cc1c-11e9-9615-8f1a32962e04_story.html?outputType=amp
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on September 01, 2019, 09:28:46 PM
185 kt in the forecast is something. Is it possible?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 01, 2019, 09:32:00 PM
NASA (@NASA) 9/1/19, 1:56 PM
Take a look at #HurricaneDorian churning over the Atlantic Ocean, as captured by cameras outside the @Space_Station at 12:16pm ET. As a Category 5 hurricane, the storm is carrying the strongest winds in recorded history for the northwestern Bahamas.

Views of Hurricane Dorian from the International Space Station - September 1, 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BTd40ed3sg

The station was moving in a southeasterly direction.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 01, 2019, 09:34:30 PM
Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) 9/1/19, 2:18 PM
Here's the latest 12Z HWRF simulation for Major Hurricane #Dorian. The high resolution model continues to promote an impactful Florida landfall during the early Wednesday morning hours. The Florida threat is real and preparations should be considered.
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1168226646710788097
Images below; gif at the link.

Jeez! That's a direct hit on Cape Canaveral. I don't think the Vehicle Assembly Building can withstand a direct hit from a Cat 5. And there's a one-of-a-kind crawler in that building.

This could take SpaceX with it, also.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle_Assembly_Building

... In the wake of Hurricane Andrew’s trail of destruction through Florida, people at KSC decided that any building built after that storm would be constructed to withstand winds between 130 and 135 miles per hour. Other, older, buildings are also storm-ready. The large, iconic Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) that’s used to store the center’s biggest spacecraft should be able to withstand wind gusts of 125 miles per hour. While that’s a threshold below Dorian’s expected high wind speeds, KSC isn’t too worried about the VAB’s integrity just yet. “It’s a solid steel cage with aluminum siding,” Derrol Nail, a communications representative at NASA’s KSC, tells The Verge. “There are 8,000 tons of steel inside this building, so yes it can withstand a lot.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2019/8/30/20840536/nasa-kennedy-space-center-hurricane-dorian-preparation-hurcon
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: KiwiGriff on September 01, 2019, 09:46:45 PM
Cat 65 and still a  chance it will hit Florida.


Historical data is too noisy and unreliable to tease an AGW effect out as yet and will remain so for decades.
 Ocean heat content is increasing with certainty. The Physics says more energy can power stronger storms.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 01, 2019, 09:50:46 PM
185 kt in the forecast is something. Is it possible?

And a couple of those forecasts have it cat 5 in a week. Could it reach Washington or New York in that much time?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 01, 2019, 10:01:41 PM
KSC was built to withstand hurricanes — after all, the launch structures have to withstand rocket launches — it has held up well through the decades.  SpaceX has no flights scheduled until later in September, so pad preparations should be minimal.  However, the site in nearby Cocoa, Florida where one of the Starship prototypes is being fabricated is not hardened, so there is concern there.  A new protective structure has recently been seen to be erected, but it (currently) has no doors. (Photos at bottom link.)  Edit:  the good news is, SpaceX Falcon rockets are stored horizontally, not vertically!  So their facility is not as vulnerable as the VAB.

SpaceX braces for Florida-bound Dorian as hurricane threatens local Starship facility
Quote
SpaceX may not be new to preparing its Florida launch facilities for hurricanes and tropical storms, but Hurricane Dorian poses entirely new challenges due to the fact that the company has recently begun operating a fairly extensive Starship production facility in Cocoa, Florida. The vast majority of Cocoa’s work is done entirely out in the open, rarely protected by more than a spartan windbreak or temporary tent. According to local photographer Greg Scott, SpaceX has paused all Starship production work for the moment and is working all-out to secure its facilities as the potentially catastrophic Cat 4 Hurricane Dorian fast approaches.
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-braces-for-hurricane-dorian-starship-facility-at-risk/

Quote
SpaceXFleet Updates (@SpaceXFleet) 8/31/19, 7:49 PM
Port Canaveral operations have now ceased until a post-storm survey is complete. The Port is all-but empty, except for a few ships that cannot leave.
OCISLY remains and will be watched by tugboat operators throughout the storm to prevent disaster if the droneship breaks loose. twitter.com/PortCanaveral/…
https://twitter.com/spacexfleet/status/1167947452625780736

Port Canaveral (@PortCanaveral) 8/31/19, 7:35 PM
CONDITION ‘YANKEE’: The Coast Guard Captain of the Port set condition Yankee for Port Canaveral terminals and facilities due to sustained gale-force winds from Hurricane Dorian expected within 24 hours. portcanaveral.com/About/Hurrican…
https://www.portcanaveral.com/About/Hurricane-Awareness?viewmode=0
At the link:  U.S. Coast Guard sent this bulletin at 08/31/2019 04:55 PM EDT

Quote
Greg Scott (@GregScott_photo) 8/31/19, 11:08 AM
FINAL STARSHIP UPDATE: As of this early this morn all people,at least visibly, are off property, gates are locked and #Starship is inside but w/o doors. Not sure how much protection this will provide but seems to be final effort before #Dorian #Nasa #ElonMusk #Space #Mars
https://twitter.com/gregscott_photo/status/1167816327609933824
Photos at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 01, 2019, 10:14:10 PM
185 kt in the forecast is something. Is it possible?

And a couple of those forecasts have it cat 5 in a week. Could it reach Washington or New York in that much time?

Current GFS model puts it near NYC on Sat Sept 7.  But it’s much too soon to rely on this for actual location or strength.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 01, 2019, 11:35:34 PM
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir_05L_201909012122.jpg)

(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_key_messages+png/155815_key_messages_sm.png)

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT5+shtml/011856.shtml.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Milwen on September 01, 2019, 11:51:14 PM
https://tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Aircraft fly-through collecting data. Update every 10mins.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 02, 2019, 12:35:54 AM
Short cellphone video clips from the Bahamas.  Storm surge.

Quote
Deeqs (@lvkvhuni)9/1/19, 1:29 PM
Dorian cutting a whole movie on my little Bahamas
https://twitter.com/lvkvhuni/status/1168214186637312000

Quote
Deeqs (@lvkvhuni) 9/1/19, 2:33 PM
 :o Abaco Bahamas, Dorian
https://twitter.com/lvkvhuni/status/1168230373525995520
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 02, 2019, 01:01:35 AM
Quote
National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) 8/31/19, 7:33 AM
Here a look inside the clear eye of #Dorian this morning from the @HRD_AOML_NOAA Hurricane Hunter P-3 Aircraft. Picture credit Paul Chang
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1167762389678219268

Edit: another photo:

Quote
Garrett Black (@GBlack22wx) 9/1/19, 5:24 PM
The eye of #Dorian
https://twitter.com/gblack22wx/status/1168273327531679744
- Credit to Jordan Sun and @McAlisterHunter on board with us today for their great camera work!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 02, 2019, 01:05:06 AM
Quote
Daryl Sausse` (@SausseImages) 8/30/19, 11:58 PM
Florida folks: If you're going to evac, I suggest you empty your fridge and freezer of anything you don't want to smell when you come back because it spoiled. After Katrina, everyone threw the fridge away whole without even opening it!
https://twitter.com/sausseimages/status/1167647714378735617
Or, if you're going to take the chance, freeze a cup of water with a coin on top and put it in the freezer. When you get back, if the coin is at the bottom, everything thawed and has gone bad.

Just some tips for folks who haven't been through this before.

====
Edit:

On top of everything else it has to do to inform people about Hurricane Dorian, the NWS now has to keep track of Trump’s lies, and correct them. >:(

NWS Birmingham 9/1/19, 11:11 AM:
Alabama will NOT see any impacts from #Dorian. We repeat, no impacts from Hurricane #Dorian will be felt across Alabama. The system will remain too far east. #alwx
https://twitter.com/nwsbirmingham/status/1168179647667814400

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/trump-says-hurricane-dorian-will-hit-alabama-as-forecasters-insist-there-is-no-threat

====
Another edit:
Jacksonville, Flroida and Charleston County, South Carolina are among locations issuing mandatory evacuation orders.
Hurricane Dorian descends on US: Live updates
https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/hurricane-dorian-september-2019/index.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 02, 2019, 02:28:19 AM
Kerrin Jeromin (@KerrinJeromin) 9/1/19, 9:19 AM
The evolution of the NHC forecast cone.
Very challenging task they have. Great work to all the staff at NHC working constantly to predict where this beast will go #Dorian
https://twitter.com/kerrinjeromin/status/1168151373323493376
Gif at the link: sequence of the NHC forecast maps so far.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 02, 2019, 03:21:29 AM
President Donald Trump on the existence of Category 5 hurricanes
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2019/sep/02/hurricane-dorian-category-5-storm-bahamas-florida-south-north-carolina-updates?page=with:block-5d6c68428f08399d62f594c7#block-5d6c68428f08399d62f594c7

Quote
... ‘I’m not sure I’ve even heard of a category 5’ says Donald Trump about Hurricane Dorian – video

... as a reminder, here are the previous times that Donald Trump has been equally surprised to learn of the existence of category 5 storms

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDZiHHCXYAAMepA?format=png&name=small)

https://mobile.twitter.com/ddale8/status/1168229088642981889
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 02, 2019, 03:48:34 AM
Chris G - NSF (@ChrisG_NSF) 9/1/19, 5:07 PM
The 17:00 EDT, 1 Sept. advisory. Projected path cone virtually unchanged. 185mph sustained winds. Slowing down a little to 5mph from 7mph. It will slow before it makes the northward turn. But this is horrible for The Bahamas. #HurricaneDorian
https://twitter.com/chrisg_nsf/status/1168269105893388294
Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral now under Hurricane Warnings.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 02, 2019, 09:05:35 AM
(https://desdemonadespair.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Hurricane-Dorian-landfall-Bahamas-1-Sep-2019-Dakota-Smith-weatherdak-Twitter.gif)
https://desdemonadespair.net/2019/09/hurricane-dorian-strikes-bahamas-with-record-fury-as-category-5-storm-the-winds-are-howling-like-weve-never-ever-experienced-before.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Ktb on September 02, 2019, 09:24:56 AM
That eye-wall is absolutely breathtaking
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on September 02, 2019, 01:49:50 PM
Maria was a cat 4  that hit my place like a Cat 3. I experienced the winds and water for over 24 hours.  The constant pressure changes, vibrations and noise of destruction was almost unbearable. It was horrible. To this day it spoiled rain for me. I still feel Maria fear when it rains. I used to love rain.

Dorian is a cat 5 moving at 5 mph. These people will be under alien planet conditions for over 24 (48?) hours. I bet most of their homes are not concrete, like mine. The tide alone will wipe entire sections of the island.

Who will help them when the storm is over? I know WCK is already to go, but who else? The red cross? The US in solidarity? Rich people with homes, boats and secret bank accounts there?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 02, 2019, 02:39:03 PM
 A British Royal Navy auxiliary ship is set to arrive in the Bahamas to assist in recovery from Hurricane Dorian.

The RFA Mounts Bay vessel was deployed to the region in June in anticipation of hurricane season, according to the British Ministry of Defense.

The vessel is equipped with aid, specialist personnel, building materials, and a helicopter. According to CNN , the vessel was set to arrive in the area Monday.

50,000 in need = 1 helicopter

----------------------

... There is no official word on casualties but the Red Cross fears some 13,000 homes have been damaged or destroyed.

Dorian is travelling west at just over 1mph (2km/h).


The NHC said the hurricane would "continue to pound Grand Bahama Island" through much of the day and evening on Monday.

... video and tweets posted by Latrae Rahming, a former aide to ex-PM Perry Christie, showed severe damage on the Abaco Islands, home to about 17,000 people, where landfall was first made with sustained winds close to 185mph.

Cars have been flipped over and roofs torn off.

Mr Rahming told the BBC it was as though a tornado had swept through Marsh Harbour on the Abacos, with a surge as high as a two-storey building bringing intense flooding.

He said he feared for one shanty town area that houses about 1,500 people.


https://twitter.com/i/status/1168227588533293056

--------------------------

Hurricane Dorian could cause insurance industry losses of up to $25bn (£20.7bn) according to analysts at UBS, Reuters reports.

UBS analysts updated their model to reflect a wider potential industry insured loss range of $5bn to $40bn and raised their base case to $25bn from $15bn, with solvency capital at risk.

The analysts estimate about $70bn of natural catastrophe losses for 2019 and added this could erode excess capital and raise prices.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on September 02, 2019, 02:49:27 PM
Quote
A British Royal Navy auxiliary ship is set to arrive in the Bahamas to assist in recovery from Hurricane Dorian.

That is something. War machinery being used to cure climate change wounds. No doubt they will make a difference.

Quote
He said he feared for one shanty town area that houses about 1,500 people.

I fear the worse for them and many others. It is unlikely we will ever hear about them. National security issue. That's how cowardly government officials deal with these types of circumstances. They hide the numbers to save face.

If only we were expecting these types of events more often. But no. That's too scary to consider.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 02, 2019, 03:00:18 PM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.floodmap.net%2FElevation%2FElevationMap%2FCountryMaps%2F%3Fcz%3DBS_1&hash=0d6fbcbb5dd9b925c70577d1b8f6e6a2)
Grand Bahama Island is the island north of Nassau with its capital labeled Freeport. ... No place to hide

... wind gusts of up to 200 mph and storm surge up to 23 feet above normal tide levels will continue over Grand Bahama Island during most of the day on Monday

... rescue teams won't get to hurricane victims on Great Abaco Island until Wednesday.

... Bahamas Press reported Monday that the Grand Bahama International Airport was under five feet of water.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on September 02, 2019, 03:13:30 PM
@WCKitchen has kitchens ready to go and shelters mapped out. If kitchens are destroyed, we build one and cook in big paella pans!

https://mobile.twitter.com/chefjoseandres/status/1168204488710205442
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: GoodeWeather on September 02, 2019, 03:13:59 PM
Has anyone had a look at the 06z 3KNAM run yet!?!   I know it's the NAM and typically does not perform well with tropical systems, but was one of the few models that predicted that mass IR of Dorian from a high end 4 (150mph) to a super cat5 (180+mph).

Anyways,  it has Dorian deepening again once it hits the gulf stream and this time sub 900mb.  Probably won't happen but definitely something to watch for.  SSTs are crazy high in front of Dorian's path.

BTW GFS and Euro also hint at restrengthening once it hits the gulf stream.  Global models are doing horrible job with the initialization.  They keep starting their runs 30mb higher than what the pressure actually is. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Paddy on September 02, 2019, 04:01:03 PM
Decent article in the Washington Post about Dorian: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/02/catastrophic-hurricane-dorian-blasting-bahamas-bearing-down-florida-georgia-carolinas/

One new record has been flagged up in the article - this is the first time on record that there have been four successive years with at least one Cat 5 hurricane. What are the odds that 2020 will make it five years, I wonder?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on September 02, 2019, 04:23:53 PM
Minister of Agriculture and Marco City MP Michael Pintard, who lives on Grand Bahama, showing some utterly frightening footage of his home during the passage of Hurricane Dorian.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TravisCC/status/1168522003009220608
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 02, 2019, 04:32:42 PM
JFC!!!  ( looks like the final half hour of the Titanic) :o
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: oren on September 02, 2019, 04:59:04 PM
JFC indeed  :o
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on September 02, 2019, 05:16:35 PM
Dorian would be category 6, if this category existed.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 02, 2019, 05:23:16 PM
Dorian is a highest category 5 in wind speed (seen a report of 185mph sustained winds) in my proposed scale (extended beaufort/hfws/tornados), based on earlier suggestions found in the net, gusting to 7 (flattening most stuff). Hopefully no inhabited islands of Bahama disappear.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 02, 2019, 06:02:39 PM
While Dorian is an intense hurricane, it is not a large hurricane.  Hurricane force winds only spread out 45 miles from its center.  Compare that to Katrina, which made landfall with 125 mph maximum winds, but hurricane force winds extended 120 miles from its center.  This led to widespread damage.  The compactness of this storm would cause damage similar to Andrew, if it made a direct hit.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on September 02, 2019, 06:26:54 PM
Someone pinned that thing onto Bahama...  :-\
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on September 02, 2019, 06:30:21 PM
While Dorian is an intense hurricane.

Do i remember you arguing the intensity of storms wouldn't increase? ;)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on September 02, 2019, 06:33:56 PM
Inside the eye of Dorian.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: GoodeWeather on September 02, 2019, 06:44:18 PM
While Dorian is an intense hurricane, it is not a large hurricane.  Hurricane force winds only spread out 45 miles from its center.  Compare that to Katrina, which made landfall with 125 mph maximum winds, but hurricane force winds extended 120 miles from its center.  This led to widespread damage.  The compactness of this storm would cause damage similar to Andrew, if it made a direct hit.

Spot on.   One of the most impressive things about Dorian is that up until now, it was able to maintain it's most interior structure without going through an EWRC, which has also kept the strongest winds very close to the center.   Dorian is now finishing the end of its first EWRC and you can expect he hurricane force wind field to expand from the center a little more.   I can see this maintaining as a Major hurricane up the coast of Florida while expanding its wind field at the same time with the assistance of the gulf stream.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: miki on September 02, 2019, 07:40:25 PM
One of the most impressive things about Dorian is that up until now, it was able to maintain it's most interior structure without going through an EWRC, which has also kept the strongest winds very close to the center.   Dorian is now finishing the end of its first EWRC and you can expect he hurricane force wind field to expand from the center a little more.   I can see this maintaining as a Major hurricane up the coast of Florida while expanding its wind field at the same time with the assistance of the gulf stream.


Truly fascinating. Terrible beauty.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1168531821346336769?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 02, 2019, 07:42:42 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1168531450519408641

#HurricaneDorian has now generated more Accumulated Cyclone Energy than two entire Atlantic #hurricane seasons since 1950: 1977 (25.3) and 1983 (17.4).

It still has another week to go.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

Over the last 12 hours, #HurricaneDorian has traveled only ~40 miles (~3.3 miles per hour) across Grand Bahama island.  It is now moving west at only 1 mph.  The long-duration impacts of #Category5 #Dorian on Grand Bahama Island have been and will continue to be devastating.

------------------------

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019090206/gfs_mslp_pcpn_05L_8.png)
20 miles from Cape Canaveral in 48 hrs.

.... Another trend during the overnight hours has been a convergence of the global forecast models, as well as hurricane specific-models such as the HWRF and HMON, all of which bring Dorian very near to the Florida coast—perhaps somewhere in the vicinity of Melbourne, Titusville, and the Kennedy Space Center.

Under some of these scenarios, the left part of Dorian's eyewall comes ashore, or very nearly so, on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning. During that time frame, the National Hurricane Center forecasts Dorian to retain a maximum wind speed of 140mph, still rated a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson scale.


(https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/gfs-florida-wnd10m_stream_mph-7566000.png)
Here is the GFS model forecast for Dorian's position for 11pm ET Tuesday.

Such a track would be similar to Hurricane Matthew in 2016, with similar or worse damages depending on Dorian's track. Matthew caused an estimated $10 billion in damage to the United States, along with 34 direct fatalities, according to the National Hurricane Center's official report on the storm.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/09/hurricane-dorian-is-going-to-come-very-very-close-to-florida/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: dnem on September 02, 2019, 08:13:03 PM
While Dorian is an intense hurricane, it is not a large hurricane.  Hurricane force winds only spread out 45 miles from its center.  Compare that to Katrina, which made landfall with 125 mph maximum winds, but hurricane force winds extended 120 miles from its center.  This led to widespread damage.  The compactness of this storm would cause damage similar to Andrew, if it made a direct hit.

Andrew came in to Homestead south of Miami and crossed the Florida peninsula quite quickly.  Had Dorian come into Florida just north of Miami and moved slowly up the coast, the damage would have been several multiples of Andrew's.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 02, 2019, 08:20:44 PM
http://www.tribune242.com/news/2019/sep/02/hurricane-Dorian-updates-monday/ 

Video from the second floor deck - Freeport International Airport: FPO
https://mobile.twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1168540276949954560

Used to look like this from the second floor deck

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDeJmJuXkAIepSh?format=jpg&name=small)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDeTrTdXUAAJ8Yd?format=jpg&name=small)

Hurricane Dorian unleashed massive flooding across the Bahamas on Monday, pummeling the islands with so much wind and water that authorities urged people to find floatation devices and grab hammers to break out of their attics if necessary.

... The water reached roofs and the tops of palm trees. One woman filmed water lapping at the stairs of her home's second floor.

... "People who thought they were safe are now calling for help," Rigby said. "My best friend's husband is stuck in the roof of their house with 7 ft water below."

... Officials said they received a "tremendous" number of calls from people in flooded homes. Forecasters warned that Dorian could generate a storm surge as high as 23 feet (7 meters).

----------------------

The eye wall of #Dorian has been sitting over some of the same places of Grand Bahama Island for 6 HOURS.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video_thumb/EDc7_yvXoAEmJdW?format=jpg&name=small)
Video at: https://twitter.com/i/status/1168477216973447168

------------------------

Video of the Grand Bahama International Airport currently being flooded with water. (2nd floor)

https://mobile.twitter.com/mvp242/status/1168468304379469824

------------------------

(https://images.spot.im/image/upload/q_70,fl_lossy,dpr_3,c_limit/v200/cb8485cf64225ff130dce62063205d91)
Gusts of 190 mph
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on September 02, 2019, 09:14:08 PM
Very slowly moving north now.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: RikW on September 02, 2019, 10:14:39 PM
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_tracks_latest.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_intensity_latest.png)

I think these predictions get updated automatically and if I understanding correctly most of them predict Dorian to reach Nova Scotia in 5/6 days while still being near a cat1/ cat2 hurricane?

That is rare, isn’t it?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on September 02, 2019, 10:40:55 PM
More storms are coming soon.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 02, 2019, 10:44:21 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/Bahamaspress

Video: https://mobile.twitter.com/Bahamaspress/status/1168599030261325825

... Residents climbed into their roof as floodwaters wash away homes and cars in Freeport, Grand Bahama.

... Churchill Drive in Freeport is now under water. Residents are seeking assistance.

... A growing wall of missing persons is being published by BP as families in Abaco become frantic on the location of their loveones. Communities in Abaco are under water and many are missing and feared dead

-----------------------

Video shows rows of power trucks assembling in Wildwood, Florida
https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/hurricane-dorian-september-2019/index.html

-----------------------

Quote from: RikW
... I think these predictions get updated automatically and if I understanding correctly most of them predict Dorian to reach Nova Scotia in 5/6 days while still being near a cat1/ cat2 hurricane?

That is rare, isn’t it?

Rare but not unheard of ...

NOAA Historic Hurricane Tracker
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/historical-hurricanes/
https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

(https://aamboceanservice.blob.core.windows.net/oceanservice-prod/news/sep17/hht.jpg)
Shown here: Category 4 and 5 hurricane tracks from 1851-2016 in the East Atlantic ocean basin.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Paddy on September 02, 2019, 10:59:04 PM
"Rare but not unheard of"

I was about to use those exact words: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Canada_hurricanes
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on September 02, 2019, 11:06:05 PM
Judging by that link this is an almost annual occurrence since around the 2000's. Before that it was rare but not unheard of.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 02, 2019, 11:10:55 PM
Spooky!  8)

----------------------

U.S.Coast Guard crews along with health workers are headed to the Bahamas’ Andros Island, where they will be strategically stationed so that they can jump into action post-storm

Meanwhile, Donald Trump has spent much his day so far at the Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, Virginia, after approving emergency declarations in several states.

He retweeted a few updates from the National Hurricane Center on Dorian ... before wishing followers, “Happy labor day,” and retiring to his 800-acre private golf club.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2019/sep/02/hurricane-dorian-category-5-storm-bahamas-florida-south-north-carolina-updates?page=with:block-5d6d50368f0812d9e0267a66#block-5d6d50368f0812d9e0267a66

... and the little fingered slug couldn't even capitalize 'Labor'
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Paddy on September 02, 2019, 11:48:31 PM
Judging by that link this is an almost annual occurrence since around the 2000's. Before that it was rare but not unheard of.

Worth noting that not all the hurricanes listed under that link were still at hurricane strength when they got to Canada.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 03, 2019, 02:42:16 AM
Quote
Brian Lada (@wxlada) 9/1/19, 5:38 PM
Unbelievable footage from the Hurricane Hunters of #lightning inside of Hurricane #Dorian. I can't imaging what it's like to pilot that plane.
https://twitter.com/wxlada/status/1168276946150727681
Image below; 5-seconds of video at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sebastian Jones on September 03, 2019, 07:30:09 AM
24 hours of Dorian sitting motionless at 150-180 mph over Grand Bahama.
I can't imagine the horror.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhOE4UePx2k&feature=youtu.be (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhOE4UePx2k&feature=youtu.be)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Milret2 on September 03, 2019, 07:50:05 AM
I am just glad there is a U.S. Coasty out there who has the guts to go out and try to give comfort and help as much as that ship and crew can for those people while we continue under the illegitimate rule of that bastard in the White House. This retired Army officer salutes that Coast Guard commander, all of the crew, and that boat. Any decent COC of American services would free up a LOT of help via our military and civil services for something as disastrous as this situation just a few miles off our coast but our current president will ignore it to the best of his ability, even with a chattering group of staff people suggesting that just maybe something should be done to help an allied power who did so much for us in WWII and some of people he other dust ups we have been in since. I tend to wonder if the Commander of that ship is allowed to finish service with the honor deserved ... especially if the commander is a woman.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Milret2 on September 03, 2019, 07:57:40 AM
 Just looked it up, the Bahamas have been an independent nation for 47 years ... I thought they were British, sorry for the blunder. Those poor people have my deepest sympathy and I would hope they get ALL the help they will need.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on September 03, 2019, 02:24:30 PM
Quote
Here is the total duration any given location has spent inside the radius of maximum wind, so far.

Portions of Grand Bahama are around 10 to 15 hours. Approaching 20 hours just offshore. And #Dorian continues to sit stationary.

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1168730576398028803/photo/1
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 03, 2019, 02:46:01 PM
^
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDgpYpXWwAAlhF6?format=jpg&name=small)
Like a stationary tornado 
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on September 03, 2019, 02:49:01 PM
A giant stationary tornado under 10 feet of water.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on September 03, 2019, 02:57:44 PM
Quote
Grand Bahama Island:

On the left a satellite image taken on Monday at 11:44aET

On the right an image from Google Maps of the same regions of Grand Bahama Island prior to #HurricaneDorian

Hard to imagine the scale of destruction.

#Dorian #hurricane Via
@ArtemisChats
https://twitter.com/Alex_Verbeek/status/1168863576406331393/photo/1
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 03, 2019, 03:11:27 PM
While Dorian is an intense hurricane.

Do i remember you arguing the intensity of storms wouldn't increase? ;)

No.  You may remember me arguing that the hurricane experts (GFDL/NOAA) have stated, "While models and simulations have shown the likelihood of increases, they have not been observed to date."
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: miki on September 03, 2019, 03:23:50 PM
Went to bed last night and then checked it back this morning.

It. Didn't. Fu...ing. Move.

That is heartbreaking!

https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/1168863409540087809
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on September 03, 2019, 03:37:50 PM
I feel sorry for the scientists that downplayed climate change. As we can start witnessing, when confronted with their crimes, climate change deniers will blame conservative scientists that predicted harm for 2100. Even if the deniers have been trying to convince us for years that things wouldn't get worse and the scientist have been warning us using disclaimers about the risks, the deniers will deny their crime, with a straight face and indignation.

The  fact that honorable scientists will admit to their error, because they are good people, will make it easier for the deniers to shift the blame.

Soon they will start claiming they were warning us all along. It is just the coward's way.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: oren on September 03, 2019, 05:36:32 PM
Quote
Grand Bahama Island:

On the left a satellite image taken on Monday at 11:44aET

On the right an image from Google Maps of the same regions of Grand Bahama Island prior to #HurricaneDorian

Hard to imagine the scale of destruction.

#Dorian #hurricane Via
@ArtemisChats
https://twitter.com/Alex_Verbeek/status/1168863576406331393/photo/1
I am at a loss for words.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: dnem on September 03, 2019, 06:12:11 PM
How is that satellite image obtained through the hurricane's cloud cover?  Is the left image a photograph or some other imaging technique?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tunnelforce9 on September 03, 2019, 06:38:36 PM
LATEST: Dorian is now a Category 2 storm and is expected to approach the east coastline of Florida Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/hurricane-dorian-move-dangerously-close-florida-coast-battering/story?id=65352098&cid=social_twitter_abcn
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Mozi on September 03, 2019, 06:39:58 PM
How is that satellite image obtained through the hurricane's cloud cover?  Is the left image a photograph or some other imaging technique?

https://earth.esa.int/web/guest/missions/esa-operational-eo-missions/ers/instruments/sar/applications

"The ability of SAR to penetrate cloud cover makes it particularly valuable in frequently cloudy areas such as the tropics. Image data serve to map and monitor the use of the land, and are of gaining importance for forestry and agriculture."
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 03, 2019, 06:44:32 PM
Why Are Hurricanes Like Dorian Stalling, and Is Global Warming Involved?
Quote
Hurricane Dorian's slow, destructive track through the Bahamas fits a pattern scientists have been seeing over recent decades, and one they expect to continue as the planet warms: hurricanes stalling over coastal areas and bringing extreme rainfall.

Dorian made landfall in the northern Bahamas on Sept. 1 as one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record, then battered the islands for hours on end with heavy rain, a storm surge of up to 23 feet and sustained wind speeds reaching 185 miles per hour. The storm's slow forward motion—at times only 1 mile per hour—is one of the reasons forecasters were having a hard time pinpointing its exact future path toward the U.S. coast.

With the storm still over the islands on Sept. 2, the magnitude of the devastation and death toll was only beginning to become clear. "We are in the midst of a historic tragedy in parts of our northern Bahamas," Prime Minister Hubert Minnis told reporters.

Recent research shows that more North Atlantic hurricanes have been stalling as Dorian did, leading to more extreme rainfall. Their average forward speed has also decreased by 17 percent—from 11.5 mph, to 9.6 mph—from 1944 to 2017, according to a study published in June by federal scientists at NASA and NOAA.

The researchers don't understand exactly why tropical storms are stalling more, but they think it's caused by a general slowdown of atmospheric circulation (global winds), both in the tropics, where the systems form, and in the mid-latitudes, where they hit land and cause damage. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/03092019/hurricane-dorian-climate-change-stall-record-wind-speed-rainfall-intensity-global-warming-bahamas
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: nanning on September 03, 2019, 06:47:28 PM
<snip>
https://twitter.com/Alex_Verbeek/status/1168863576406331393/photo/1

Most of the Island is submerged :o. Where have all the people gone? Is there any contact?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 03, 2019, 07:02:45 PM
Dense rain may cause some difficulties but the radar altimeter and the frequencies used allow imaging through clouds:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic-aperture_radar

Waters will of course recede afterwards... This is erosion fast-forwarded by .... No can't put a number on this.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 03, 2019, 07:04:55 PM
^^
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDijN9NW4AA6r88?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on September 03, 2019, 07:11:03 PM
That is heartbreaking!

Indeed.  :'(

Quote
It. Didn't. Fu...ing. Move.

Indeed!

Here is 42 (forty-two) hours of madness:
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 03, 2019, 07:18:57 PM
Hurricane Dorian captured by high definition camera outside the Space Station.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bluice on September 03, 2019, 07:25:13 PM
There’s been predictions of global warming causing more frequent hurricanes and/or more powerful hurricanes but I cannot remember anything about stalling hurricanes.

We’ll be in for more such surprises as the planet warms.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 03, 2019, 08:01:40 PM
Quote
Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) 9/3/19, 1:15 PM
NASA's satellite derived rainfall data is quite valuable for tropical cyclones around the world like Hurricane #Dorian in the Bahamas.
There's a 12-hour latency, but so far over 40" estimated to have fallen between eastern tip of Grand Bahama and northern Abaco Islands.
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1168935620217114624
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: pikaia on September 03, 2019, 08:06:33 PM
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/964eb5d8d18025c529d3cfc6fb57610bf19829d9/0_0_2048_1364/master/2048.jpg?width=1010&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=4ab5f9a2c01a66acfec4c5385ee1b29c)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Grubbegrabben on September 03, 2019, 08:37:54 PM
There’s been predictions of global warming causing more frequent hurricanes and/or more powerful hurricanes but I cannot remember anything about stalling hurricanes.

We’ll be in for more such surprises as the planet warms.

I have a very faint memory about a post that refered to a report stating that global warming may make landfalls rarer due to more powerful ridges blocking movement over land. In light of recent events (Harvey, Dorian) the report might be almost correct, the hurricanes stall just off- or almost on-shore with dramatic effects. I'll search a bit and edit this post if I find the report.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 03, 2019, 08:54:32 PM
Quote
Robert Rohde (@RARohde) 9/3/19, 9:24 AM
#Dorian's incredible stall over the island of Grand Bahama appears to set a new record for the slowest moving major hurricane over any 24-hour period since records began in 1851.
Most people can easily walk faster than the mere 1.3 mph (2.0 kph) that Dorian has been advancing.
https://twitter.com/rarohde/status/1168877388429692928
- Interestingly, ranks 5, 8, and 10 also involved major hurricanes that stalled to the east of Florida, though not quite in the same location as Dorian.
- Dorian has been the slowest-moving major hurricane ever observed in the Atlantic.
Considering the larger population of all Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms, Dorian's 1.3 mph (2.0 kph) crawl ranks in the slowest 0.2%.
< How does it compare to Hurricane Harvey, when it hovered over Houston?
RR:  Harvey was only tropical storm force when it stalled, so it wouldn't qualify for this list.
However, for comparison, it's minimum 24-hour speed was 2.6 mph (4.3 kph), which would make it faster than Dorian but still quite slow.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 03, 2019, 08:59:02 PM
In a very general sense, can’t stalled hurricanes be likened to stalled high pressure areas, which result in extended heat waves or cold spells?  The atmospheric steering currents are slowing because of the reduced temperature difference between the equator and the poles.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: FrostKing70 on September 03, 2019, 09:10:24 PM
Try this article from Category 6:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Slow-Moving-Hurricanes-Barry-Growing-More-Common

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 03, 2019, 09:19:45 PM
Hurricanes and Typhoons are Becoming 'Sluggish' — and That Makes Them More Destructive
https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricanes-moving-more-slowly-causing-more-damage-2018-6

- Over the past 70 years, the speed of hurricanes and tropical storms has slowed about 10% on average, according to new research.
- That doesn't mean storm systems have become less intense, just that they're crossing Earth more slowly, which actually gives storms more time to dump rain and lash an area with powerful winds.
- Over land, especially in the North Atlantic and Western North Pacific, storms are moving 20-30% more slowly.

(https://amp.businessinsider.com/images/5b18350d1ae66224008b49c9-960-592.jpg)

James P. Kossin, A global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation speed (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0158-3), Nature Volume 558, pages104–107 (2018)

Open Access: Timothy M. Hall & James P. Kossin, Hurricane stalling along the North American coast and implications for rainfall (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-019-0074-8), Climate and Atmospheric Science Volume 2, Article Number: 17 (2019)

------------------------------------

A Global Slowdown of Tropical-Cyclone Translation Speed and Implications for Flooding
https://riskfrontiers.com/rf2018/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Briefing-Note-370.pdf

(https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41586-018-0585-1/MediaObjects/41586_2018_585_Fig4_HTML.png)

--------------------------------

Hurricanes: A Bit Stronger, a Bit Slower, and a Lot Wetter in a Warmer Climate
https://phys.org/news/2018-05-hurricanes-bit-stronger-slower-lot.html

Scientists have published a detailed analysis of how 22 recent hurricanes would change if they instead formed near the end of this century. While each storm's transformation would be unique, on balance, the hurricanes would become a little stronger, a little slower moving, and a lot wetter.

In one example, Hurricane Ike—which killed more than 100 people and devastated parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast in 2008—could have 13 percent stronger winds, move 17 percent slower, and be 34 percent wetter if it formed in a future, warmer climate.

The study, led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and published in the Journal of Climate, compares high-resolution computer simulations of more than 20 historical, named Atlantic storms with a second set of simulations that are identical except for a warmer, wetter climate that is consistent with the average outcome of scientific projections for the end of this century.

... As a group, the storms in the future simulation had 6 percent stronger average hourly maximum wind speeds than those in the past. They also moved at a 9 percent slower speed and had a 24 percent higher average hourly maximum rainfall rate. Average storm radius did not change.

... there was one consistent feature across storms: They all produced more rain.

(https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/hires/2018/hurricanesab.jpg)

Open Access: Ethan D. Gutmann et al. Changes in Hurricanes from a 13-Yr Convection-Permitting Pseudo–Global Warming Simulation (https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0391.1), Journal of Climate (2018)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: FrostKing70 on September 03, 2019, 09:21:34 PM
Or a slightly older post referencing stalled hurricanes and rain potential:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/extreme-hurricane-rainfall-expected-increase-warmer-world

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 03, 2019, 09:43:03 PM
New Aerial Footage of the Bahamas After Hurricane Dorian Is Absolutely Gut-Wrenching
https://earther.gizmodo.com/new-aerial-footage-of-the-bahamas-after-hurricane-doria-1837843886

(https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--L1ruhs5U--/c_scale,f_auto,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/jpxilxk8ihvuw7fc9c5c.jpg)

After 36 hours of pummeling winds and waves from the Category 5 hurricane, the world is getting its first glimpse at what that devastating transformation looks like.

Aerial footage has revealed shipping containers ripped open like tin cans, houses scattered and torn apart, and boats hundreds of feet inland from the nearest marinas. The aerial footage was shot by storm chasers who flew over Abaco, the first island to get struck by Hurricane Dorian. WXChasing, the storm chasers who shot the footage, reported that conditions were rough and that there were still hurricane-force winds (winds greater than 74 mph) blowing when they took off.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1168935923528208390
https://twitter.com/i/status/1168885165189451781
https://twitter.com/i/status/1168835589027848194

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDjlYRpWwAE9GVC.jpg)

The Red Cross estimates that an astounding 99 percent of people on the islands will need emergency assistance, and at least 13,000 houses—45 percent of the islands’ housing stock—have been damaged or destroyed. Though there are only five reported deaths, that number will almost surely rise as rescue crews begin to make their way across the islands. If you’d like to help with recovery efforts, Lifehacker (https://lifehacker.com/how-to-help-hurricane-dorian-relief-efforts-1837833970) has a helpful guide for how to direct your resources.

https://6abc.com/weather/widespread-destruction-in-bahamas-storm-zone-after-dorian-video/5512084/

https://youtu.be/8QoqtB6HPMY

https://spacecoastdaily.com/2019/09/video-aftermath-from-hurricane-dorian-shows-complete-devastation-in-grand-bahama/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bluice on September 03, 2019, 10:01:37 PM
Thanks for the links about slow moving hurricanes. I do think that this phenomenon was not commonly expected prior Harvey in 2017. Which would mean we had no idea before we started observing it happen.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 04, 2019, 03:39:19 AM
Evacuation orders given for coastal areas in several states.  But highways remain clear.

Florida, Georgia, Carolina residents face evacuation orders as Dorian approaches - CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/02/us/evacuations-hurricane-dorian/index.html

Quote
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 9/3/19, 3:21 PM
Today, I have interstate 95 north all to myself. I never get used to such strange occurrences along when I call “the hurricane highway“.

heading into the Carolinas now.
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1168967336524730368
Brief video clip at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 04, 2019, 03:54:24 AM
Thread by @iCyclone:
Quote
Yep, I’m alive. Made it to Nassau. #Hurricane #DORIAN: By far the most intense cyclone I’ve witnessed in 28 years of chasing. Thought I was playing it safe by riding it out in a solid-concrete school on a hill in Marsh Harbour. Thought wrong. ...
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1169009558167142402.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 04, 2019, 04:08:25 AM
Details of Kennedy Space Center‘s previous brushes with hurricanes, and updates on preparations now for Hurricane Dorian.

“Both of SpaceX’s Starship construction sites in Florida and Texas are in hurricane-prone locations, so this type of securing procedure was always part of SpaceX’s contingency plan for their first two Starships.”

Kennedy Space Center, Cape ready for Hurricane Dorian
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/09/kennedy-space-center-cape-impacts-hurricane-dorian/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 04, 2019, 09:15:47 AM
400-500 people alive at Abaco (Marsh Harbour) Clinic, report says. Only some heavy duty helicopters have been able to get people out of the island due high winds. Rescue/relief efforts to Abaco to become easier today as the winds weaken.

https://reliefweb.int/report/bahamas/hurricane-dorian-situation-report-no-4-2-september-2019-1600-edt
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 04, 2019, 06:44:44 PM
Here’s Why the Carolinas Are So Much More Vulnerable to a Hurricane Like Dorian Right Now
https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2019/08/heres-why-the-carolinas-are-so-much-more-vulnerable-to-a-hurricane-like-dorian-right-now/
Quote


Puerto Rico has escaped the worst of Hurricane Dorian. And it looks like Florida might, too: On Saturday morning, the storm again shifted paths, and it appears likely to skirt Florida’s eastern coast instead of making a direct hit. That doesn’t mean the danger is over for Florida, and it does put the rest of the southeastern coast, especially Georgia and the Carolinas, in harm’s way sometime next week. South Carolina has already declared a state of emergency. Worse still is if the Category 4 storm makes landfall in vulnerable areas still recovering from last year’s Hurricane Florence.

The stakes have grown much higher when a hurricane threatens to hit the coast. There are a lot of reasons for this. As I explained two years ago, “Some are psychological, others are practical, and many are self-inflicted.” Climate change is part of the problem, with warmer temperatures fueling deadlier, wetter storms. Rising sea levels increase the chances of coastal flooding. But it’s also the blind spots that North Carolina politicians have developed on climate change. While seas are rising, these lawmakers have encouraged building in low-lying areas, and in some cases discouraged state law from reflecting scientific realities.

The Carolinas are flanked by low-lying narrow barrier islands that have seen housing and tourist development during the past few decades “in places where it probably should not have been,” according to the Associated Press. Much of that development has been subsidized by a federal flood insurance program that shelled out $1.5 billion to cover flood claims in two dozen coastal counties even before Hurricane Florence struck. Last year, when Florence made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane, it dealt the region $24 billion in damages and 53 deaths. The floodwaters breached hog lagoons and coal ash pits and threatened Superfund sites.

Unwise development isn’t the only problem. As in Florida, North Carolina politicians have also allowed climate change denial to dictate their decision-making.

In 2010, a panel of scientists advising the North Carolina Coastal Resources Commission, which guides the state’s coastal development, issued a report projecting 39 inches of sea-level rise by the end of the century. The report triggered political backlash from developers and the Republican-controlled legislature, which preferred that the commission rely only on historical data. The state ended up passing a law requiring a broader range of projections to dilute findings that sea level rise would accelerate. Newer research has found that the sea level is rising even faster along the southeastern coast than global averages. Instead of considering the best science out there, the governor-appointed commission ultimately limited the science panel’s projections to 30 years into the future.

How Has Climate Change Affected Hurricane Dorian?
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/03/climate/hurricane-dorian-climate-change.html
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While it’s common to hear the question, “Was it caused by climate change?” scientists argue that this is an unhelpful way to look at the issue. As Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at Texas Tech University, put it recently on Twitter, “that’s the wrong question. The right one is, ‘how much worse did climate change make it?’”


Hurricane Dorian + Florida’s Toxic Waste = Trouble
https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/hurricane-dorian-florida-s-toxic-waste-trouble-coal-ash
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Unfortunately for Florida, hurricanes like Dorian have a way of revealing environmental injustices. Hurricane Katrina, along with displacing tens of thousands of people, resulted in what was then the worst oil spill in North America since the Exxon Valdez in 1989. In the wake of Hurricane Maria, Puerto Rican residents had to resort to drinking water contaminated by Superfund sites. Forty inches of rain pummeled Houston during Hurricane Harvey, flooding hazardous waste sites and causing mercury to collect along local riverbanks.

Dorian’s projected path could converge with sewage disposal operations and concentrated animal feeding units, says Lisa Rinaman of Waterkeepers Florida. But the biggest worry is coal ash. At least three coal ash sites could be impacted by the strong winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge of the offshore hurricane: the Seminole Generating Station east of Gainesville, the Stanton Energy Center near Orlando, and the St. Johns River Power Park in Jacksonville.

Bahamas Relief Efforts Frustrated as Dorian Pulls Away
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/03/world/americas/bahamas-hurricane-dorian.html
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As Hurricane Dorian pulled away from the Bahamas, relief workers, medical personnel, pilots and others gathered at a private terminal of the Nassau airport on Wednesday amid boxes of supplies, anxiously awaiting permission from the government to fly to devastated areas and provide assistance.

But with most of the runways on Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama — the islands most heavily pummeled by the storm — flooded or covered in sand, it was difficult to deliver help or even assess the damage wrought by the storm. In addition, the government has given priority to helicopter evacuations.

Hurricane Dorian leaves terrible destruction in Bahamas as it rolls toward U.S.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/hurricane-dorian-leaves-terrible-destruction-in-bahamas-as-it-rolls-toward-us/2019/09/03/71dbebec-ce75-11e9-b29b-a528dc82154a_story.html
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Entire neighborhoods have been wiped out, with houses turned to rubble. Cars and even huge metal shipping containers have been scattered by a storm surge that meteorologists report might have reached 23 feet on islands and cays that are just modestly above sea level. The ocean became, in effect, a bulldozer.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 04, 2019, 08:48:52 PM
One indicator of hurricane strength is energy output measured by a formula called Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). This is a measure of the total energy generated by a hurricane over the course of its lifetime.

The most energetic storm, with an ACE of 70.4, was Hurricane Ivan (2004). A long-lasting Cape Verde storm that tracked all the way from Africa to the Panhandle of Florida in 23 days, spending several days as a category 5.

Dorian's ACE value was 37 as of Tuesday at noon EST.

- 37 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) units generated so far – the 11
th most for a named storm forming in August in the satellite era (since 1966).
- 37 ACE – more than nine full Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1950: 1972, 1977, 1982, 1983, 1986, 1987, 1991, 1994 and 2013.

https://mobile.twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1168889148025069571
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 04, 2019, 09:48:20 PM
Quote
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 9/4/19, 12:48 PM
Uh.... looks to me like it’s becoming quite a bit better organized and this is also seen in radar images. Might we have a strengthening hurricane closing in on the coast?
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1169291048641814529
< It sure looks that way, recon currently finding pressure slowly but surely dropping. Been saying it could reintensify into a cat 3 since this morning.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2019, 01:40:25 AM
The first unofficial sightings of SpaceX assets outside of KSC report no damage from the storm.

Greg Scott (@GregScott_photo) 9/4/19, 2:27 PM
FIRST STARSHIP UPDATE: As of this early this morn #Starship is still inside and seems to be fine. No evidence of people on site yet, but all the fabrication on the ground seems to also still be in place.. I think we dodged a bullet! #Dorian …
https://twitter.com/gregscott_photo/status/1169316168735309826

All is well with #SpaceX’s Starship prototype after Hurricane #Dorian skirted by the Space Coast. No damage in the area.
https://twitter.com/emrekelly/status/1169282802887614464

Of Course I Still Love You appears to have weathered the storm. She’s still berthed, and there’s no obvious damage! #OCISLY
https://twitter.com/spacecoast_stve/status/1169248385288814592

Port Canaveral is officially open. 6 cruise ships will be arriving tomorrow!
Dorian is currently offshore at Jacksonville, where the SpaceX Fleet is sheltering, so don't expect to see them rushing back.
https://twitter.com/spacexfleet/status/1169356738732154880

Images/video clips at the links.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on September 05, 2019, 03:16:41 AM
Dorian is intensifying again. 100 kt, 958 mb according to tropicaltidbits (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/).
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2019, 03:29:29 AM
Flightradar24 (@flightradar24)
9/4/19, 9:20 PM
#NOAA42 once again active inside #Dorian.    fr24.com/NOAA42/21f92e1d
https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1169419895337099270
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on September 05, 2019, 03:51:13 AM
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Using recon data & satellite center fixes, here are wind duration swaths by category for #Dorian, zoomed in on Grand Bahama and Abaco Islands.

As it stalled out, portions of the islands endured:
hurricane-force winds for over 36 hours,
cat 2 for >24 hrs,
cat 3 for 6-12 hours!

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1169398977776803840


Very nice visualization.  Vox, thanks for posting the images of my prior posts, I would post the myself if I knew how. If you can do this one to it would be great. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2019, 04:12:53 AM
Charleston, South Carolina
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Charleston Weather (@chswx)
9/4/19, 7:50 PM
We’ve just passed low tide. The tide bottomed out at 2.85’. The predicted astronomical tide? 0.35’.

Surge is building, folks.
https://twitter.com/chswx/status/1169397417835409408
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Ktb on September 05, 2019, 05:10:45 AM
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The President of the United States altered a National Hurricane Center map with a sharpie to falsely extend the official forecast toward Alabama so he didn't have to admit he was wrong in a tweet.

It is a violation of federal law to falsify a National Weather Service forecast and pass it off as official, as President Trump did here.

18 U.S. Code § 2074

https://twitter.com/wxdam/status/1169309514669199361

Truly breathtaking to watch this man work.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: wili on September 05, 2019, 05:21:58 AM
One commentator equated it to a third grader scribbling on his report card to try to alter a grade. Again, psychiatrists are asserting that there needs to be a thorough evaluation of the POTUS's mental competence for the security of the country: https://www.rawstory.com/2019/09/psychiatrists-demand-full-evaluation-to-determine-if-trump-suffers-from-any-of-multiple-different-disorders/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on September 05, 2019, 07:32:39 AM
Not a psychiatrist, but when a guy looks up to the sky and sais 'i'm the chosen one', i can see how there must be some detachment from reality and narcissism involved here. Or that time when he bragged about his building now being the tallest after 9/11.

Now he is clearly demented. Can't even speak anymore.

People who think there is a need for a psychiatrist to asses if the POTUS is mentally ill are in need of a psychiatrist.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on September 05, 2019, 11:29:25 AM
Turning aside for a moment from the alternative reality of the parallel universe of the White House, a look at the particularities of Dorian and changes to the nature of hurricanes.....extracts from an article by Michael Mann and Andrew E Dessler

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/04/climate-crisis-hurricane-dorian-floods-bahamas
Global heating made Hurricane Dorian bigger, wetter – and more deadly
We know that warm waters fuel hurricanes, and Dorian was strengthened by waters well above average temperatures

Quote
While the science has yet to come in on the specifics of just how much worse climate change made Dorian, we already know enough to say that warming worsened the damage.

Sea surface temperatures were more than 1C warmer in the region where Dorian formed and strengthened than they were before we started burning fossil fuels. Empirically, there is a roughly 7% increase in maximum sustained wind speeds of the strongest storms for each 1C of warming. Since destructive potential is proportional to the third power of the wind speed, that corresponds to a 23% increase in potential wind damage.

We know that the warmer air gets, the more moisture it can hold – and then turn into flooding rains in a storm like this.

But there are two other ways that warming has probably worsened Dorian’s damage.

One is that all that warm water allowed for the storm to ramp up quickly, undergoing what is known as rapid intensification as it exploded from a moderate category 2 to extreme category 5 over just two days. A recent study has shown that this is getting more common because of climate change,

So while climate change is making it so hurricanes can spin up quickly, it may also be slowing down how fast hurricanes move. Had Dorian been moving at a regular pace of a few miles an hour, the devastation in the Bahamas would have been much less severe. But because it sat in place, basically stationary, the damage has been catastrophic. Again, Dorian is far from unique in moving slowly, as a study last year found a 10% decrease in speed for storms like this globally, while a similar study found a 17% decrease along the east coast of the US.

When all these factors combine in one storm, as it has for Dorian, it is truly a nightmare scenario – and a preview of the climate crisis to come. The only question is whether we have the foresight to address it.



Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on September 05, 2019, 11:45:46 AM
Storm surge, strong winds and up to 15" of rain for the coasts of the Carolinas. Ouch.

And on Sunday / Monday Nova Scotia / Newfoundland get a hurricane for breakfast.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: El Cid on September 05, 2019, 12:29:30 PM
And on Sunday / Monday Nova Scotia / Newfoundland get a hurricane for breakfast.

Or not. This baby was expected to land in Florida and see what happened...
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: oren on September 05, 2019, 01:33:01 PM
Indeed. But then model tracks were all over the place, and now they are tightly clustered.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2019, 01:51:01 PM
Dorian

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft
Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

 RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday:
Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Far Southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches
Coastal Georgia...1 to 2 inches
Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

 TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this afternoon near the coastal South and North Carolina border area. This threat will expand northeastward across the rest of eastern North Carolina during the afternoon and continue into tonight.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/050919.shtml?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2019, 01:59:44 PM
Charleston, South Carolina expecting major flood levels.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on September 05, 2019, 02:07:22 PM
60 frames, 40-minute increments
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2019, 02:14:24 PM
Quote
A bunch of majestic horses that spend their days frolicking on the beach in North Carolina's Outer Banks will not be evacuated.

With Hurricane Dorian quickly approaching, the colonial Spanish mustangs will huddle together and ride out the storm using a trick horses have used for centuries.

They will move to higher ground and gather under sturdy oak trees to shelter from the storm, said the Corolla Wild Horse Fund, which manages the herd and sends a similar reminder during major hurricanes due to the outpouring of concern for the horses. "They'll likely ride out winds and rain as their ancestors did before them — in huddles, butts to the wind," it added.

And unlike human beings living in the Outer Banks, the wild horses are better equipped to handle a hurricane. They're already sensing a change in air pressure and are grouping up together.

"Remember, they've been doing this for 500 years!" the Fund said.

The horses' food, water and other supplies have been stocked up at the farm.

They have extra hay and grain, and their troughs are filled with water. They also have ID tags braided into their manes, and the herd manager will ride out the storm at the farm with them, the Fund said. ...
https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/05/us/north-carolina-wild-horses-hurricane-dorian/index.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: FrostKing70 on September 05, 2019, 02:38:58 PM
For those interested in the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy), here is the source I use:

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: FrostKing70 on September 05, 2019, 02:41:55 PM
Dorian now at 41.3 ACE and climbing:

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 05, 2019, 02:49:50 PM
Thanks, FrostKing. I was looking for that.  :)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on September 05, 2019, 03:12:51 PM
Nice. I used this source (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2019_Atlantic_hurricane_season/ACE_calcs).
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 05, 2019, 05:40:35 PM
NOAA buoy 41004 (https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004) is located 41 nautical miles south east of Charleston, and looks to be in Dorian's eye at the moment:

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: SteveMDFP on September 05, 2019, 06:05:12 PM
is located 41 nautical miles south east of Charleston, and looks to be in Dorian's eye at the moment:

Great find!  Thanks Jim.  Also of note, a spun-off tornado near Myrtle Beach, SC:
(https://d1acid63ghtydj.cloudfront.net/09-05-2019/t_da74262a39ec41298b0a65fd3b6d75b7_name_file_720x1280_2000_.jpg)

Video clip of this beast at:
VIDEO: Tornado spotted in North Myrtle Beach; warnings issued throughout morning
https://www.wmbfnews.com/2019/09/05/video-tornado-spotted-north-myrtle-beach/ (https://www.wmbfnews.com/2019/09/05/video-tornado-spotted-north-myrtle-beach/)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on September 05, 2019, 06:09:38 PM
60 frames, 1-minute increments
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: aperson on September 05, 2019, 06:26:28 PM
And on Sunday / Monday Nova Scotia / Newfoundland get a hurricane for breakfast.

Or not. This baby was expected to land in Florida and see what happened...

There's a big difference between a fully tropical system with little to no synoptic steering and a hurricane undergoing extratropical transition that is firmly hooked to a gigantic trough.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2019, 06:32:10 PM
South Carolina Emergency Management Division
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SCEMD (@SCEMD) 9/5/19, 9:18 AM
Situation reports coming in from county emergency managers. More than 202,000 power outages statewide, some reports of damage, trees down in the Lowcountry. 33 emergency shelters open statewide. #Dorian #SCTweets #scwx
https://twitter.com/scemd/status/1169600733051834369

Quote
National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) 9/5/19, 11:05 AM
Here are the 11 am EDT key messages on Hurricane #Dorian. The latest full advisory is always available at hurricanes.gov
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1169627628031995905
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 05, 2019, 07:17:24 PM
A man bought 100 generators to help the Bahamas. They're being delivered by boat
Quote
A man walked into a Costco in Florida and left with 100 generators, all of which are heading to The Bahamas.

His receipt read $49,285.70 and most of that came from paying $450 a pop for 100 generators. Peas, beans, coffee, salt, pepper and other essentials made up the rest of his mega purchase from a Costco in Jacksonville, Florida, on Wednesday.

All of it is going to those in need on the hard-hit islands of Grand Bahama and Abaco, he said. ...
https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/04/us/man-buys-generators-bahamas-trnd/index.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 05, 2019, 07:50:13 PM
https://www.hopetownsailingclub.com/

On the ground reporting

(https://www.hopetownsailingclub.com/s/cc_images/cache_4228710846.jpg?t=1567651245)
Many more images

----The MHH airport is inoperable, under water, with roofs and building debris on the runway. Sandy Point is only place that rescue and relief teams can land, but…all the Ferries to bring people and relief to the island have sunk.

For Elbow Cay right now (where the hurricane made first landfall) — boats, helicopters and planes cannot even get to folks.

A general survey of damages using video footage.

Elbow Cay – 30% of structures demolished . 70% of structures damaged to severely damaged
Most docks destroyed and unusable 99% of boats sunk

Man O War Cay, all docks destroyed and every boat sunk. 90% of structures damaged to severely damaged. 10% of structures destroyed.

Dickies Cay – all docks destroyed. 50% structures destroyed & 50% of structures damaged to severely damage.

... After flying over Marsh Harbour Abaco and the surrounding areas today, I can safely say that we have never in our history experienced a disaster of this magnitude. The size and scale of this hurricane and the response required will be tremendous. I would like to caution aid groups and relief workers that running in this headfirst without proper planning and coordination you may add to the problem. The reality on the ground is not an instagrammable moment, but one that is riddled with risks and is still an active evacuation zone. There are still many ways to get involved and support our trained first responders and coordinate with them prior to any action, you do not want to become a victim while trying to help.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 06, 2019, 11:29:19 AM
Not quite landfall for the centre of Dorian's eye at Cape Lookout (https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=CLKN7)?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 06, 2019, 03:10:46 PM
The NHC has announced (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/al05/al052019.update.09061254.shtml?) that:

Quote
Surface and radar data indicate that the center of Hurricane Dorian made landfall at 835 AM EDT (1235 UTC) over Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Maximum sustained winds were near 90 mph (150 km/h) with a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on September 06, 2019, 05:42:35 PM
Moving away from land atm.

60 frames, 2-minute increments
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bligh8 on September 06, 2019, 06:43:54 PM
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2019-09-06/na-dorian-north-carolina-category-one

Hurricane Dorian makes landfall in North Carolina’s Outer Banks as it pushes up Eastern Seaboard

(https://i.imgur.com/Qx4HgZ6.jpg)

"WILMINGTON, N.C. —  Hurricane Dorian howled over North Carolina’s Outer Banks on Friday — a much weaker version of the brute that wreaked havoc in the Bahamas — flooding homes in the low-lying ribbon of islands and throwing a scare into year-round residents who chose to tough it out. Hundreds were feared trapped on one flooded island, the governor said."

"Its winds down to 90 mph, the Category 1 hurricane lashed communities with rain and surging seawater as it hugged the islands. Around midmorning, its eye came ashore at Cape Hatteras, Dorian’s first landfall on the U.S. mainland."

“It’s bad,” Ann Warner, who owns Howard’s Pub on Ocracoke Island, said by telephone. “The water came up to the inside of our bottom floor, which has never had water.” She said a skylight blew out and whitecaps coursed through her front yard and underneath her elevated house."

(https://i.imgur.com/KgiU8Tb.jpg)

bligh
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: philopek on September 06, 2019, 06:50:29 PM
3 days ago I said to a friend in Halifx that within 10 years they will face a fully fledged =>cat1 hurricane overhead, that was perhaps a bit optimistic :-(

Yes I know it can be better or worse in about 2 days but still, only the real possibility that it will happen and then a slight turn west would make N.Y. the target, slightly before 9/11 this time ;)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2019, 07:50:07 PM
Hurricane Dorian makes landfall in North Carolina, hundreds may be trapped
Quote
Hurricane Dorian made landfall along Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, Friday as those on the state's low-lying islands battled ferocious rain and braced for flash flooding and dangerous storm surge.

Hundreds may be trapped on Ocracoke Island where the deadly storm "is raging" and "waters are rising quickly," North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper said Friday.

"I don't think rescue crews can get in at this point, but they are ready to go as soon as they possibly can," Cooper said.

The Hyde County Sheriff's Office called the flooding on Ocracoke Island "catastrophic."

Leslie Lanier, who lives on Ocracoke Island, said some residents had to climb into their attics to escape the water.

"Hatteras Island is literally drowning... the flooding is insane," Outer Banks resident Sarah Ashley, who evacuated inland but said her husband stayed behind, told ABC News via email. "We're praying that these winds die down before high tide [Friday afternoon]." ...
https://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-dorian-whips-north-carolina-coast-deadly-storm/story?id=65425190
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: aperson on September 06, 2019, 08:55:19 PM
3 days ago I said to a friend in Halifx that within 10 years they will face a fully fledged =>cat1 hurricane overhead, that was perhaps a bit optimistic :-(

The Canadian Maritimes are hit by hurricanes regularly, but not frequently. Hurricane Juan in 2003 (973mb / 85kt) is a good example of one that caused significant damage in Halifax. So impacts happening altogether is well within climatology, though I would expect frequency to increase as systems stay tropical longer before they fully go extratropical and the poleward migration of tropical cyclones results in more hits up there.

That being said. I do not think the maritimes have ever seen a major (cat 3+) hurricane landfall.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2019, 09:27:53 PM
The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) 9/6/19, 2:42 PM
With #Dorian making its way upwards towards Canada, hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued.
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1170044557402263553
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 06, 2019, 11:03:32 PM
Is climate change making hurricanes stall?
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/is-climate-change-making-hurricanes-stall
Quote
Over the last seven decades, hurricane stalling, which causes a storm to release massive amounts of rain on small areas, has become more common, research published in June in the journal Nature shows. But it is currently unclear if the trend is due to climate change or natural variation.

How warm oceans supercharge deadly hurricanes
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/09/how-warm-water-fuels-a-hurricane/
Quote
Both Klotzbach and University of Miami meteorologist Brian McNoldy say linking any one storm to massive global change is challenging, and so is linking Hurricane Dorian to climate change.

Scientists instead look at patterns to assess how storms are changing over time.

The fourth National Climate Assessment predicted hurricanes could become more intense and destructive as the climate warms. Some studies suggest a warming atmosphere could make for slower winds, and research is increasingly showing that warmer conditions make hurricanes slower and wetter.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bluesky on September 07, 2019, 01:07:32 AM
According to the catastrophe modelling agency KCC, Dorian should cost to Bermuda at least USD7bn in economic damage:
https://www.artemis.bm/news/hurricane-dorian-impact-on-bahamas-likely-to-cost-7bn-says-kcc/
which seems to be higher than Bermuda's GDP (USD6.3bn in 2017 at current market price):
https://www.gov.bm/sites/default/files/GDP%202017%20annual%20publication.pdf

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bluesky on September 07, 2019, 01:38:03 AM
HWRF model , Dorian landfall in Nova Scotia could be extremely close to Halifax, the port could be on the East/ North East quadrant, wondering whether there could be funnelling effect when the storm surge happens; let's hope it won't happen at high tide. Weather Canada, hurricane statement at 3am ADT confirms that landfall would be very near or over Halifax on Saturday evening with max sustained wind of 139km/h and MSLP at 960mb while HWRF shows  minimum pressure at 948mb close to landfall.



Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 07, 2019, 02:23:14 AM
“Precious Hours Were Wasted”: Trump’s Doctored Map Affected Hurricane Forecasters
https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/09/precious-hours-were-wasted-trumps-doctored-map-affected-hurricane-forecasters/

On Wednesday, when President Donald Trump was showing off a doctored hurricane forecast in the White House Oval Office, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center were mortified.

It was a critical moment for the federal tropical cyclone experts because Hurricane Dorian had begun to show signs of re-intensifying—it would later become a major hurricane again—and its track appeared increasingly likely to bring the storm's center ashore somewhere in the Carolinas. Two sources in the Miami-based hurricane center told Ars that Trump's "update" on Hurricane Dorian effectively paralyzed operations.

After Trump spoke, the forecasters' cell phones buzzed with incessant distractions. Media briefings were stopped for the afternoon. "Precious hours were wasted," one official at the center told me. "We aren’t going to put out bad forecasts, but we need to keep the eye on the ball here."

Instead of warning residents of the Southeastern United States about a re-strengthening Dorian just as it posed its greatest threat to the nation, the media subsequently pivoted to cover Trump's preposterous attempt to re-write the history of Dorian's forecast. As an American, I felt embarrassed. As a meteorologist, I was livid. ...

--------------------

https://youtu.be/6n7QA0Gr_oQ
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 07, 2019, 03:43:34 AM
Seriously?  Does anyone actually believe that his misstatements hindered efforts in any way?  Please stop posting such nonsense.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: aperson on September 07, 2019, 03:50:08 AM
Seriously?  Does anyone actually believe that his misstatements hindered efforts in any way?  Please stop posting such nonsense.

Dr. Maue, is that you?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: petm on September 07, 2019, 07:03:37 AM
https://www.noaa.gov/news/statement-from-noaa

Well, yet another reliable information source bites the dust. It's amazing how weak America is. Can't even survive one imbecile.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: oren on September 07, 2019, 09:24:13 AM
According to the catastrophe modelling agency KCC, Dorian should cost to Bermuda at least USD7bn in economic damage:
The Bahamas, not Bermuda (for those like me who can get easily confused by "all these islands").
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on September 07, 2019, 12:15:23 PM
Surprise, surprise the current Director of Communications for NOAA worked on the Trump campaign and Trump Inaugural Committee.

This is how fascism feels like, people.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on September 07, 2019, 12:20:18 PM
Seriously?  Does anyone actually believe that his misstatements hindered efforts in any way?  Please stop posting such nonsense.

I'm always trying to stay civil and respectful when i reply to the bogus you post, but this time it's especially hard. It's enough alright. This one can't be explained by stupidity or a screwed up worldview. This is clearly trolling.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: philopek on September 07, 2019, 12:32:23 PM
3 days ago I said to a friend in Halifx that within 10 years they will face a fully fledged =>cat1 hurricane overhead, that was perhaps a bit optimistic :-(

... though I would expect frequency to increase as systems stay tropical longer before they fully go extratropical and the poleward migration of tropical cyclones results in more hits up there.


Thanks for the detailed elaboration, it was about the meaning only that your post is way better formulated, much appreciated ;)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on September 07, 2019, 01:44:21 PM
Had to skip two bad frames there, so excuse the hickup.

60 frames, 10-minute increments.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 07, 2019, 02:03:39 PM
The blow-by-blow of what to expect in Nova Scotia from Hurricane Dorian
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5273642

The latest update on Friday evening from the U.S.-based National Hurricane Centre, has the storm arriving possibly as a Category 2, or at least a strong Category 1. It's expected to make landfall between the South Shore and Cape Breton on Saturday evening. As of Friday evening the Halifax region is looking like the most likely location.

Widespread sustained winds of more than 60 km/h are likely for all of Nova Scotia, southeastern New Brunswick and P.E.I., with gusts of 90 to 110 km/h ⁠— from the South Shore through Halifax and central Nova Scotia to eastern regions, Cape Breton ⁠and P.E.I. — winds gusts will likely reach 110 to 130 km/h, with exposed areas of the coast possibly reaching 150 km/h.

... In a statement released Friday, the Halifax Regional Municipality was recommending residents living close to the ocean evacuate ahead of the storm.

“The latest forecasts predict high winds, considerable rainfall, and significant storm surges. Waves are expected to reach heights of 15-metres (49-feet), which could create dangerous conditions for residents living near the water,” the statement read.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 07, 2019, 02:15:30 PM
Seriously?  Does anyone actually believe that his misstatements hindered efforts in any way?  Please stop posting such nonsense.

I'm always trying to stay civil and respectful when i reply to the bogus you post, but this time it's especially hard. It's enough alright. This one can't be explained by stupidity or a screwed up worldview. This is clearly trolling.

You have it backwards.  I am trying to quell the bogus.  Since when is good science and hard facts a screwed up works view?  That tells me a lot about your perceptions.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on September 07, 2019, 02:41:40 PM
You have it backwards.  I am trying to quell the bogus.  Since when is good science and hard facts a screwed up works view?  That tells me a lot about your perceptions.

Make a poll. Ask if people believe that a commander in chief spreading fake news during a crisis isn't harmful. Go ahead!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: TerryM on September 07, 2019, 02:48:52 PM
^^
I do think this is more than a little overblown.
But I won't get drawn into a debate.
It was stupid. It didn't bring the NOAA to a halt.
Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on September 07, 2019, 03:33:18 PM
Trump is not the weather man, he's the president of the US. This world can move into the 3th worldwar any moment. That possibility is probably also something that's on his mind. He's probably not spending most of the day looking how much area the arctic lost. So i think you are a little bit narrow minded blumenkraft. Time to take some fresh air.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bligh8 on September 07, 2019, 03:40:32 PM
After Hurricane Sandy I walked along the back bay waterfront and adjacent streets, most of this area was a velocity zone.  What I saw was 30yrs of memories piled up in heaps of garbage on the curb, mom sat quietly on what was left of the front porch, dad tried to look busy sorting out life's treasures, now garbage. The kids were looking in vane amongst the piles of trash for their favorite toy.

No one talked, their were no good mornings or have a nice day….people were stunned, staring in disbelief at a life's work now piled up on the curb.

How elected officials act or react matter…more so, how our president acts ….matters. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on September 07, 2019, 03:41:00 PM
Trump is not the weather man, he's the president of the US. This world can move into the 3th worldwar any moment. That possibility is probably also something that's on his mind. He's probably not spending most of the day looking how much area the arctic lost. So i think you are a little bit narrow minded blumenkraft. Time to take some fresh air.
It was a great demonstration of how Trump has to be right about everything.
All he had to do was ask the NOAA to do a real basic half-page crib sheet. But no, know-all knows all.

But that's enough off-topic.

I am basking in my Royal Glory of having posted some days ago that Nova Scotia & Newfoundland would get it in the neck this weekend. Someone questioned my prognosis, ha!

( Am I getting a touch of Trump megalomania ? )
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on September 07, 2019, 04:02:12 PM
Time to take some fresh air.

You can't imagine how fresh and clean the air is here. I would even go so far as to say you will never experience such clean air. That's because i'm not a member of the trumpism cult.

BTW, there is no world war coming, and your so-called president is giving a shit about you and your fellow countryman while destroying FEMA and playing golf. But who cares about reality, eh?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on September 07, 2019, 04:07:48 PM
Maybe he was just pleasing his voters a little bit, after all, the hurricane was already a few days gone. But that's what all politicians do in a democracy. And all these states where the hurricane went to, they all have a government. They don't need Trump to sound the alarm. That's maybe something you can better do yourself.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on September 07, 2019, 04:10:03 PM
So were did you went to if the air is so clean, and how did you get there ?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on September 07, 2019, 04:14:49 PM
Is that West-Germany you are living ?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 07, 2019, 04:27:21 PM
Well, blumenkraft, you may be right about no WWIII.
But there were people who said the same thing about WWII in 1938.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on September 07, 2019, 04:52:02 PM
What does this mean, Tom? That there are different people with different opinions?

Well, yeah.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 07, 2019, 05:12:28 PM
You didn't state it as an opinion, you stated it as a fact.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on September 07, 2019, 05:27:48 PM
To see this statement as a fact is valid only if you think i'm clairvoyant.

Sorry to report i'm not, Tom.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 07, 2019, 05:37:11 PM
OK blumenkraft.
If you had said "I doubt there will be a world war coming" instead of "BTW, there is no world war coming", then I would have had no problem.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on September 07, 2019, 05:50:03 PM
Just for a change a post about a hurricane.
_____________________________________________________________
Bahamas
The death toll, now at 43, is expected to rise drastically, officials said, as hundreds remain missing, buried under rubble on Grand Bahama and the Abaco Islands by the strongest hurricane ever to hit the archipelago nation.
________________________________________________________
000
WTNT45 KNHC 071452
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  57
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

Satellite imagery this morning indicates that Dorian is starting
extratropical transition, with cold air clouds entraining into the
southwestern side of the cyclone and a developing warm front to the
north and east.  However, the cyclone still has persistent
convection just north and northeast of the center, so it remains a
hurricane on this advisory.  NOAA buoy 44011 reported a minimum
pressure of 955.3 mb as the center passed just to the west, so the
initial central pressure is lowered to 953 mb.  The initial
intensity remains 75 kt based partly on recently-received WindSat
data showing hurricane-force winds southwest of the center.

Dorian continues to move rapidly northeastward with an initial
motion of 040/25 kt.  The current motion should bring the center
of Dorian over central and eastern Nova Scotia in about 12 h and
near or over Prince Edward Island shortly thereafter.  Subsequently,
Dorian is forecast to move near or through northern Newfoundland
and southeastern Labrador before turning east-northeastward over the
far north Atlantic.  There are no significant changes to the
previous forecast, and the new forecast is again close to the
various consensus aids.

Dorian is expected to complete extratropical transition during the
next 24 h as it merges with a strong mid- to upper-level trough and
associated surface frontal zone.  The global models agree on a
gradual decay of the winds after transition is complete.  However,
the cyclone will likely still be producing hurricane-force winds as
it moves through portions of eastern Canada.  The global models also
agree that the post-tropical cyclone should become absorbed by
another extratropical low in 2-3 days.  The NHC intensity forecast
again leans towards the GFS and ECMWF models, which typically handle
large extratropical lows better that than the intensity models that
are made for tropical cyclones.


Key Messages:

1. Regardless of whether it is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions
of eastern Canada beginning during the next several hours. Dangerous
storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St.
Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia.
Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward
Island and Newfoundland later today and tonight. Refer to
information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information
on these hazards.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 42.0N  66.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 45.1N  63.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...OVER NOVA SCOTIA
 24H  08/1200Z 48.9N  59.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  09/0000Z 51.7N  54.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  09/1200Z 54.2N  47.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: philopek on September 07, 2019, 07:16:49 PM
That will hurt along the entire "South Shore".

Head-Cinema playing for me as a 12 year resident from Lunenburg County.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 07, 2019, 07:43:34 PM
Do you think Dorian's name will be retired?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on September 07, 2019, 08:13:43 PM
Do you think Dorian's name will be retired?
A high death toll makes it very likely.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: aperson on September 07, 2019, 08:31:26 PM
^^
I do think this is more than a little overblown.
But I won't get drawn into a debate.
It was stupid. It didn't bring the NOAA to a halt.
Terry

I think it's a serious problem because it erodes the public's trust in impact forecasting. Can you imagine how much of a nightmare emergency management & response would be if the populace was as distrusting of the NWS as they were of climate scientists?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: aperson on September 07, 2019, 08:31:56 PM
Do you think Dorian's name will be retired?

It is an absolute certainty.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bbr2314 on September 07, 2019, 08:45:16 PM
^^
I do think this is more than a little overblown.
But I won't get drawn into a debate.
It was stupid. It didn't bring the NOAA to a halt.
Terry

I think it's a serious problem because it erodes the public's trust in impact forecasting. Can you imagine how much of a nightmare emergency management & response would be if the populace was as distrusting of the NWS as they were of climate scientists?
Who cares? This is so overblown and the outrage machine in response is even worse, it has derailed this thread and dominated discourse.

Would it really be so bad if the trust of the "general public" in the NWS was reduced? In those susceptible to "trust reduction" I would argue that most already do not believe in climate change and are generally egregiously stupid. If they get sucked into a tornado or blown away by a hurricane, what's the loss? I would say it is actually a gain in terms of reducing emissions, ironically the roundabout way of doing this is also the most effective.  :)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2019, 08:47:53 PM
The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) 9/7/19, 12:26 AM
The Weather Channel App will be covering Typhoon Faxai all weekend as it will be a major concern for the big city of Tokyo in central Japan. All living there and possibly traveling to the city will want to monitor this developing Typhoon.
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1170191569028288512
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2019, 09:39:27 PM
NWS Eastern Region: "A final listing of peak wind gusts from Hurricane Dorian across Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia. The highest wind gust reported was 110 mph on Cedar Island North Carolina.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/nwseastern/status/1170096937368006656
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: aperson on September 07, 2019, 10:00:35 PM
Would it really be so bad if the trust of the "general public" in the NWS was reduced? In those susceptible to "trust reduction" I would argue that most already do not believe in climate change and are generally egregiously stupid. If they get sucked into a tornado or blown away by a hurricane, what's the loss? I would say it is actually a gain in terms of reducing emissions, ironically the roundabout way of doing this is also the most effective.  :)

You're a bit too high on your own supply of irony here friend. Put it down before you start believing other foolish things like an imminent reglaciation.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on September 07, 2019, 11:34:57 PM
Faxai is getting stronger fast. https://watchers.news/2019/09/07/typhoon-faxai-undergone-extreme-rapid-intensification-closing-in-on-tokyo-japan/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2019, 02:37:40 AM
Quote
"Snapchat Public Story from Halifax. Significant damage and still ongoing. Trees and power lines down, collapsed crane, storm surge, debris coming off buildings. #NSStorm #Dorian #HurricaneDorian
https://mobile.twitter.com/austinmacd73/status/1170438804634853381
Video at the link.

Quote
Brian Walsh (@BrianWalshWX) 9/7/19, 6:43 PM
There are nearly 450,000 customers without power in the Maritimes this evening, including 343,000 in Nova Scotia alone due to wind damage from #Dorian #nlwx #nsstorm #nbstorm #PEStorm
https://twitter.com/brianwalshwx/status/1170467710020595712
Outage maps at the link.

Quote
Dr. Kim Wood: "Two weeks of Dorian as a tropical cyclone:
- 58 NHC advisories
- 48 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)
- 41 hours over Grand Bahama And so many lives forever changed.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/drkimwood/status/1170450626976899072
Radar animation at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 08, 2019, 02:44:21 AM
Hurricanes Can Affect Weather Long After Landfall
https://phys.org/news/2019-09-hurricanes-affect-weather-landfall.html

After a hurricane has made landfall and moved through a community, it can affect the weather in the following weeks and months.

Here are a few reasons why and how:

- Humidity can decrease without leaves, which hold moisture.
- Without the leaves and trees to "sweat," which cools the surface, the air temperature can rise.
- Without tree foliage and vegetation to disperse a heavy rain, communities may be more prone to flash flooding in the days or weeks after a hurricane.
- Additionally, the high discharges in rivers and streams leads to large sediment plumes in the ocean that muddy the water and may affect shrimpers, fisherman and the seafood industry
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 08, 2019, 02:54:59 AM
Dorian has recently passed over the Halifax Harbour buoy (https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44258):

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bbr2314 on September 08, 2019, 06:51:05 AM
Hilarious

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1170546650651271169
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 08, 2019, 08:57:40 AM
Dorian has recently passed over the Halifax Harbour buoy (https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44258):

Ok, the ocean buoy  of course bobs up and down on at least 8 meter  waves so the wind measurements are of lower speed than they should be.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 08, 2019, 02:16:48 PM
According to the latest JTWC bulletin (https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1419prog.txt) Faxai is heading for Tokyo:

Quote
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE KANTO PLAIN BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS INTENSITY.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 08, 2019, 02:17:47 PM
The wind measurements are of lower speed than they should be.

It looks as though the buoy might have failed to record the highest wind speeds?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 08, 2019, 04:52:16 PM
The wind measurements are of lower speed than they should be.

It looks as though the buoy might have failed to record the highest wind speeds?
On some graph the top winds were only at 57 knots before the eye
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Richard Rathbone on September 08, 2019, 05:40:30 PM
Dorian was moving really fast, and that speed adds to the velocity of the winds on one side of it and subtracts on the other side. A buoy is just sampling a couple of points as the eyewall crosses it, the odds are against them being where the wind is highest.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 08, 2019, 07:04:26 PM
Powerful Typhoon Faxai Pummels Tokyo Region
https://phys.org/news/2019-09-powerful-typhoon-faxai-pummels-tokyo.html

(https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/14W_081200sair.jpg)

Faxai, packing winds of up to 216 kilometres (134 miles) per hour, was bearing down on the Japanese capital and was expected to pass right over the megacity in the early hours of Monday.

Faxai was churning near Izuoshima island, south of Tokyo in the Pacific, at 10:00 pm on Sunday (1300 GMT), travelling north at a speed of 20 kilometres per hour and already producing high waves.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 08, 2019, 10:21:53 PM
Faxai appears to have headed slightly west of earlier guidance and made landfall south of Tokyo. According to the JTWC:

Quote
TYPHOON (TY) 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 5 NM WEST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO DETERIORATE BUT STILL PACKED DEEP CONVECTION
AND A 15NM CLOUD-FILLED OBLONG EYE AS IT MADE LANDFALL OVER HONSHU.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM JMA AND NUMEROUS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS NEARBY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90KTS IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 08, 2019, 10:44:07 PM
However according to NHK, and presumably the JMA, landfall was in Chiba, east of Tokyo:

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20190909_80/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2019, 02:28:41 AM
Dorian One of Strongest, Longest-Lasting Hurricanes on Record in the Atlantic
Quote
Dorian was also among the longest-lasting named storms, Klotzbach said.
As of Friday evening, it had been a named storm for more than 13 days, nine of them as a hurricane.

"It's quite unusual for a hurricane to remain a hurricane for as many days as Dorian has," said climate scientist Michael Mann....
...
Dorian May Have Influenced the Gulf Stream
It also looks like Dorian may also have influenced the Gulf Stream, the strong ocean current that brings warm water from the Gulf of Mexico into the Atlantic Ocean, possibly contributing to localized coastal flooding.

An undersea monitor near Miami indicated that Dorian might have slowed the speed of that current, with powerful winds pushing against it, along with a disruptive underwater churn. A slower Gulf Stream can cause the surface of the ocean to rise by several inches to a foot or more, said Tal Ezer, an oceanographer at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Va.

That would underlie any storm surge, he said, and the effect can linger for days as it did in 2016 in Norfolk with extended sunny weather flooding the aftermath of Hurricane Matthew, whose path was similar to Dorian's. He said he's looking for that to happen in the coming days.

"After the hurricane disappears, streets remained flooded," he said. "The drainage system was blocked and couldn't drain the rain."
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/07092019/hurricane-dorian-record-climate-change-bahamas-north-carolina-gulf-stream
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: nanning on September 09, 2019, 07:31:44 AM
  Typhoon Lingling: Powerful typhoon passes over North Korea

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-49621405

  Quote:
"A powerful typhoon has passed over the Korean peninsula, leaving five people dead and 460 houses damaged or destroyed in North Korea, according to state media.

The storm flooded 460 sq km (178 sq miles) of farmland, the official KCNA news agency said, in a country already suffering food shortages.

Typhoon Lingling earlier killed three people in South Korea.

Flights were cancelled and tens of thousands of homes left without power."


Earlier this year, the UN warned that up to 10 million North Koreans were "in urgent need of food assistance" (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-48290957).
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 09, 2019, 05:54:04 PM
Dorian One of Strongest, Longest-Lasting Hurricanes on Record in the Atlantic
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/07092019/hurricane-dorian-record-climate-change-bahamas-north-carolina-gulf-stream
Quote
Dorian's size, rainfall and stalling behavior reflected what scientists expect to see more of as the planet warms.

Global warming, fueled by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations from activities like burning fossil fuels, can exacerbate extreme weather, and it contributes to sea-level rise that then worsens the impact of storm surges. Warmer air also holds more moisture, so storms can dump more rain, particularly when they stall as Dorian did.

Hurricane Dorian's 185 mph sustained winds as it reached the Bahamas tied with Hurricanes Gilbert (1988) and Wilma (2005) for the second-strongest maximum sustained winds in the Atlantic basin since 1950 and one of the strongest at landfall, according to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert and research scientist at Colorado State University's Department of Atmospheric Science.

One-third of Homeowners in Hurricane Dorian’s Path Dropped Their Flood Insurance in Recent Years
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/one-third-of-homeowners-in-hurricane-dorians-path-dropped-their-flood-insurance-in-recent-years
Quote
More than 30 percent of U.S. homeowners in Hurricane Dorian’s path dropped their flood insurance policies in recent years, according to an analysis by E&E News. Analysts say this decline could leave tens of thousands of people along the southeastern coast in dire financial positions following the storm; regular homeowner’s insurance does not cover flood damage.

Hurricane Dorian thrashes farmer’s tobacco crop
https://www.northcarolinahealthnews.org/2019/09/06/hurricane-dorian-thrashes-farmers-tobacco-crop/
Quote
Clemmons estimates that about half of it was destroyed, maybe more. He said he won’t be able to get back into his fields again until Saturday at the earliest. The tobacco losses could be greater if the storm dumped saltwater on them, he said. The boundary of Clemmons’ farm lies about a half-mile from the Atlantic Ocean, not far from where Dorian almost made landfall.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: petm on September 10, 2019, 06:03:20 AM
https://www.axios.com/wilbur-ross-alabama-noaa-trump-tweet-hurricane-906916f7-8ba9-4053-a8df-3d7e8f52c1c3.html

Nothing coming out of NOAA or any other government agency can be trusted while Trump remains in office.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 10, 2019, 08:03:35 AM
Nothing coming out of NOAA or any other government agency can be trusted while Trump remains in office.

Word. Republicans are not fit to be scientists or managing science.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Human Habitat Index on September 10, 2019, 08:09:04 AM
Deliberate gaffe to obfuscate from rational climate debate.

Same thing with Greenland.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2019, 02:15:38 AM
Yes, it’s a joke.  (Sad to say I have to say that.)

Trump Signs Executive Order Giving Him Control of Weather
Andy Borowitz
Quote
WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)—In what some congressional Democrats are calling a flagrant example of Presidential overreach, Donald Trump on Tuesday signed an executive order giving him total control of the weather.

Under the terms of the order, Trump would assume the unilateral power to create all meteorological conditions, including but not limited to hurricanes, tornadoes, tsunamis, hail, sleet, and wintry mix.

After signing the order, a beaming Trump pronounced “total victory” over the weather, which he called “the enemy of the people.” ...
https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/trump-signs-executive-order-giving-him-control-of-weather
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 11, 2019, 02:25:55 AM
(https://eideard.files.wordpress.com/2017/04/trumpascanute.jpg)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 11, 2019, 09:04:58 PM
Trump Warns That Bahamian Hurricane Refugees Could Be ‘Gang Members’
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/hurricane-dorian-bahamas-refugees-denied-entry-united-states-881612/
Quote
Hurricane Dorian may not have hit the U.S. East Coast as hard as many feared, but it decimated the Bahamas, leaving tens of thousands homeless. On Sunday, over 100 of the displaced were instructed to disembark a rescue ferry bound for Florida because they didn’t possess U.S. visas. Customs and Border Protection has been unable to offer an adequate explanation for why this happened, as visas are not required for Bahamians traveling to the U.S.

When asked about the incident on Monday, President Trump said the U.S. needs to be careful about allowing Bahamians into the country following Hurricane Dorian. “I don’t want to allow people that weren’t supposed to be [in the Bahamas],” he said, adding that among the refugees could be “very bad people and some very bad gang members and some very very bad drug dealers.”
and
The plight of Hurricane Dorian evacuees offers a frightening vision of 'climate apartheid'
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/10/has-hurricane-dorian-sparked-climate-apartheid
Quote
Like most things Trump says, this statement is very, very removed from reality. But who needs facts when you can appeal to racist feelings? Trump’s smearing of Hurricane Dorian survivors builds on his tried-and-tested strategy of dehumanising non-white people by describing them as “bad hombres,” rapists and MS-13 gang members. It builds on his strategy of describing any non-white person seeking refuge in America as a threat to the country.

Trump’s comments, it should be noted, were prompted by a question about an incident on Sunday in which 119 Bahamian evacuees, including children, were told to get off a ferry bound for Florida because they didn’t have US visas. This came as a shock because Bahamians don’t need visas to visit America if they don’t have a police record and plan a short stay. According to an American reporter on the ferry, the evacuees he spoke to didn’t plan to move to the US, “They were coming to go grocery shopping, stay in a hotel with AC [air conditioning], chill for a little and then head back.”

26 feet of water: What the worst-case hurricane scenario looks like for Tampa Bay
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/9/11/18485563/hurricane-florida-climate-change-tampa
Quote
It’s become a haunting question of when, not if, a big hurricane will return. Residents surrounding Tampa Bay have been spared the worst-case hurricane scenario many times before. Now, there’s so much more to lose. And sometime soon, we don’t know when, the worst-case scenario will arrive: a Category 5 hurricane, with winds in excess of 160 mph.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 12, 2019, 12:11:50 AM
Trump Demanded Retraction After NWS Disputed His False Hurricane Claim
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/09/white-house-told-noaa-to-back-trumps-false-hurricane-forecast/

The White House pressured the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration into backing President Trump over weather forecasters who disputed Trump's incorrect claim that Hurricane Dorian would likely strike Alabama, according to news reports.

"Mick Mulvaney, the acting White House chief of staff, told Wilbur Ross, the commerce secretary, to have the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration publicly disavow the forecasters' position that Alabama was not at risk," the New York Times reported today, citing anonymous sources. Ross then warned NOAA "that top employees at the agency could be fired if the situation was not addressed," the Times wrote.

Mulvaney took this action after "President Trump told his staff that the [NOAA] needed to correct a tweet that seemed to contradict his statement that Hurricane Dorian posed a significant threat to Alabama as of Sept. 1," the Washington Post wrote in an article on the same topic. There are now multiple investigations into whether the NOAA's scientific integrity and independence were undermined.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 12, 2019, 12:29:05 AM
Hurricane Dorian: Bahamas Lists 2,500 People as Missing
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-49666942

Bahamas emergency services have listed 2,500 people as missing after Hurricane Dorian struck the islands last week.

This official count suggests the death toll will be much higher than the current 50, though the number of missing has yet to be checked against those in shelters and should fall.

Tens of thousands of people remain in need of aid.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 12, 2019, 02:58:44 PM
Oil Spill Adds to Dorian Woes in Bahamas
https://phys.org/news/2019-09-oil-dorian-induced-woes-bahamas.html

After sowing mass destruction across the island, Hurricane Dorian delivered one final blow: an oil spill at the Norwegian Equinor facility.

The spill occurred at Equinor's South Riding Point terminal, which has a storage capacity of 6.75 million barrels of crude and condensate.

According to Equinor, the tanks were storing 1.8 million barrels when the hurricane hit.

... Six kilometers (four miles) away the ground is saturated with a black, thick paste.

"They need to evacuate the whole East End or come do something," Roberts said.

At ground zero, several huge oil storage tanks are colored black by overflown oil, which has spread over a still yet to be defined section of land near the coast.

"Before the hurricane hit, nine of our 10 tanks at the terminal had aluminium domed roofs," said Equinor spokesman Erik Haaland. "Five of these roofs are now gone."

... Equinor said in a statement "there is currently no observed leakage of oil to the sea from the South Riding Point terminal."

However, it said "surveillance has identified potential product in open waters 70-80 kilometers north east of the terminal within Long Point Bight close to Little Abaco Island."

"There are also indications that the product may have impacted a section of the coastline," it said.

(https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/2019/adamagedcont.jpg)

... "This is where most of all of our seafood comes from, from this area, from these magnificent coral reefs," he said, including deep sea fish, like red snapper, grouper and lobster.

The area's bonefish, he said, is a $7 billion industry.

Pointing to the beach, he said: "This is where they go along the shore... and spawn by the millions about three miles offshore."
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 12, 2019, 05:09:41 PM
The latest 2 day prognosis for the North Atlantic from the NHC:


Quote
Disturbance 1: 70% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
As of 8:00 am EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 ...

Satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather over the central and southeastern Bahamas is gradually becoming better organized while surface pressures are falling in the area. Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph. If this development trend continues Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated later today. This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday, especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 12, 2019, 05:36:14 PM
Quote
... This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday, especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian.

They just don't get a break.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2019, 09:17:03 PM
NWS:  Interests in the central and northwestern Bahamas as well as Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, this disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas through Friday.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Richard Rathbone on September 12, 2019, 10:59:56 PM
Its now PTC 9, with a cone that comes so close to touching Alabama that it looks like Trump is being trolled.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204713.shtml?gm_track#contents
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 12, 2019, 11:23:23 PM
Its now PTC 9, with a cone that comes so close to touching Alabama that it looks like Trump is being trolled.

Sharpie sharpening time?

Speaking of which, I've been trolling Trump myself today:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1172158138805608448

He hasn't got back to me yet!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: be cause on September 13, 2019, 09:38:25 AM
Talking of Alabama .. it rained all night the day I left , the weather it was fine .. Oh Susanna .. :)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 13, 2019, 10:38:12 PM
After Dorian, disease is next threat on shattered Bahamian island
http://news.trust.org/item/20190912163814-7q0wm/
Quote
Disease outbreaks could further drive up the death toll of one of the most powerful Atlantic hurricanes on record, which currently stands at 50, but which Bahamian Prime Minister Hubert Minnis said he expects to significantly increase.

Some 1,300 people have been registered as missing in the storm's wake and the Bahamian Ministry of Health has requested 500 body bags, according to the PAHO.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 13, 2019, 11:21:10 PM
The latest NHC forecast reveals Hurricane Humberto heading for Bermuda rather than Alabama:
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 13, 2019, 11:29:00 PM
Yeah, Bermuda has had some hurricanes.
I bought a book there on their hurricanes back when I had a vacation there as a kid.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 14, 2019, 11:46:23 AM
Bahamian Government Revises Number Of Missing After Dorian Down To 1,300
https://www.npr.org/2019/09/13/760718795/bahamanian-government-revises-number-of-missing-after-dorian-down-to-1-300
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 14, 2019, 12:46:56 PM
Humberto has now been named officially. His forecast track is currently drifting to the north of Bermuda. However:

Quote
On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move near or over the northwestern Bahamas today, and offshore of the east coast of Florida this weekend and early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Humberto is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 14, 2019, 02:00:40 PM
Climate Reality: "September 1 is now a day etched into the marble of Bahamian history and Bahamian memory. But it’s also a day that should be remembered the world over: the day that our accumulated choices and our inaction against climate change swelled into a storm."
https://mobile.twitter.com/climatereality/status/1172640867066290176

Hurricane Dorian Was a Climate Injustice
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/hurricane-dorian-was-a-climate-injustice
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 14, 2019, 04:16:36 PM
Things are warming up in the North Atlantic. The current 5 day outlook:
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 16, 2019, 05:36:14 PM
Why a warming planet may mean more Dorian-like storms
https://www.augustachronicle.com/news/20190915/why-warming-planet-may-mean-more-dorian-like-storms
Quote
But most researchers agree the conduct of these storms, including flooding rains, escalating intensities, and a swollen storm surge riding on rising seas, is consistent with what climate change models predict will happen more often as the world warms.

HotSpots H2O: In Bahamas, Lack of Toilets and Safe Water Pose Disease Risk After Dorian
https://www.circleofblue.org/2019/world/hotspots-h2o-in-bahamas-lack-of-toilets-and-safe-water-pose-disease-risk-after-dorian/
Quote
The Bahamas are still reeling after Hurricane Dorian caused widespread destruction earlier this month. Many residents report a shortage of food and water, and health experts warn that the hardest-hit areas could face a health crisis.

Residents of the Abaco Islands, where Dorian made landfall on September 1 as a Category 5 storm, as well as those in Grand Bahama, the country’s second-most populated island, say essential supplies are running low.

“We have no food. No water. We’re abandoned here,” Shenelle Kemp, a resident of Grand Bahama, told The Guardian last week. Aid groups have been rushing to distribute food, water, water purification tablets, and medicine, but access to some areas of the islands is limited. Relief efforts were also slowed by Tropical Storm Humberto, which brought heavy rainfall over the weekend.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 16, 2019, 10:21:16 PM
Hurricane Humberto is now official.

Disturbance 1 is 90% over 5 days.

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 17, 2019, 02:03:51 AM
National Hurricane Center

@NHC_Atlantic

Hurricane Humberto Advisory 17A: Humberto Likely to Become a Major Hurricane Within the Next Day Or So.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: nanning on September 17, 2019, 05:25:46 AM
<snip>
Disturbance 1 is 90% over 5 days.

Hi Jim, thanks for the updates.
Could you please explain what you mean by the expression above?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: oren on September 17, 2019, 05:35:46 AM
The NHC  (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/)lists not just tropical storms but also potential systems that could develop into storms - disturbances.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: nanning on September 17, 2019, 10:56:47 AM
Thank you oren :)

Reading the red box text, the percentage is the chance of storm formation. Got it.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: dnem on September 17, 2019, 01:12:27 PM
There is also a disturbance off the coast of Texas that has only a 30% chance of achieving tropical storm strength before moving on shore and inland. Nonetheless, yesterday the Euro was predicting rainfall totals in the Houston area of up to 2 feet (635 mm). 
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: oren on September 17, 2019, 04:54:16 PM
Disturbance 1 has already become tropical depression 10, forecast to become a hurricane and currently headed towards the Bahamas of all places. I really hope the track changes.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on September 17, 2019, 06:13:54 PM
There is also a disturbance off the coast of Texas that has only a 30% chance of achieving tropical storm strength before moving on shore and inland. Nonetheless, yesterday the Euro was predicting rainfall totals in the Houston area of up to 2 feet (635 mm). 
Chance is increasing.
Quote from: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php
1. Updated: Recent satellite, radar, and surface data show that the
area of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
near the Texas coast has become better defined this morning.  The
associated thunderstorm activity has also increased and become a
little better organized.  If these development trends continue, a
tropical depression could form before the system moves inland later
today or tonight, but significant additional development is not
likely once the system moves inland.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding remain the
primary hazards with this system.  This disturbance is expected to
produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 15 inches across the upper coastal region of Texas
into far southwest Louisiana through Thursday.  This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.  For additional information,
see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the
Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2019, 07:01:35 PM
Disturbance 1 has already become tropical depression 10, forecast to become a hurricane and currently headed towards the Bahamas of all places. I really hope the track changes.

Latest GFS model has TD10 remaining quite weak. 
(Also, eventually turning northeast and staying well off the U.S. east coast.)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on September 17, 2019, 07:08:36 PM
Tropical depression Eleven has formed.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2019, 08:36:06 PM
Quote
Stu Ostro (@StuOstro) 9/17/19, 12:11 PM
A serious threat from excessive rainfall -- regardless of whether #98L becomes a TD or TS. Low-level spin & moisture has consolidated (satellite) and will move slowly the next couple days (forecast sequence) w/training/regenerating bands & clusters of torrential downpours. #txwx
https://twitter.com/stuostro/status/1173992862146543616
Image below; gif at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 17, 2019, 09:36:51 PM
Disturbance 1 has already become tropical depression 10, forecast to become a hurricane and currently headed towards the Bahamas of all places. I really hope the track changes.

Latest GFS model has TD10 remaining quite weak. 
(Also, eventually turning northeast and staying well off the U.S. east coast.)

Remember, Dorian was forecast to remain quite weak also.  That changed.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2019, 11:05:22 PM
From the Weather Channel:

Now Tropical Storm Imelda, history:
Mon 9/16:  Area to watch:  Invest 98L
Tues 9/17 11am CT:  upgrade to moderate chance (50%) of depression or storm
   12pm CT: NHC declares Tropical Depression Eleven
   12:45 pm CT:  NHC upgrades Eleven to Tropical Storm Imelda
   1:30pm CT:  Imelda makes landfall on Texas coast.
   4pm CT: winds 40mph, pressure 1006mb, moving N at 7mph.  Location: 30 mi west of Galveston, Texas.
The slow forward motion is expected to continue over the next 3-4 days, increasing the flood risk.  Rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour are possible.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gandul on September 17, 2019, 11:23:42 PM
Tropical depression 10 will become a hurricane.
Attached PABOTUS forecast.
(posting this stupid and lame joke, one gets the real dimension of the narcissistic-in-chief. It’s being really hard for me to post this joke)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 18, 2019, 01:50:24 AM
Attached PABOTUS forecast.

Unfortunately it's no joke. See my comments on the latest article from Skeptical Science:

https://skepticalscience.com/trollbots-swarm-twitter-attack-climate-science-ahead-of-un.html

With a hat tip to blumenkraft:

Quote
Here is the first overview paper we'll be referencing in our forthcoming in depth investigation of "Trump as Trollbot":

https://www.salon.com/2019/09/17/donald-trump-king-of-chaos-new-research-on-right-wing-psychology-points-toward-big-trouble-ahead/

Donald Trump is the King of Chaos. He has lied at least 12,000 times since becoming president of the United States.

These lies are often obvious and lazy — such as incorrectly claiming that Hurricane Dorian would hit Alabama and then forcing scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to parrot his lies. Trump’s lies are made no less dangerous when they happen to be lazy and obvious.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2019, 04:16:24 AM
Quote
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 9/17/19, 7:19 PM
That is one heck of an MJO forecast by the ECMWF. It lasts well in to October. Sure hope people are ready and pay attention.
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1174100655369281538

< For us layman, does that pattern typically mean a lot of cyclone activity in the E. Pacific or Atlantic, or both?
<< Typically Phase 1 or 2 supports the Atlantic. Phase 8 is more East Pacific. Phase 1 I think is especially favorable for the Gulf/Caribbean region (which is usually favored by October anyway). That strong of an MJO in late Sep/early Oct would be quite something.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on September 18, 2019, 08:49:15 AM
Looks like Bermuda is going to get some +40 feet waves.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 18, 2019, 01:04:09 PM
TS Jerry has officially been christened:
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 18, 2019, 06:15:45 PM
Hurricane Dorian a Catastrophe for Bahamas' Unique Birds
https://phys.org/news/2019-09-hurricane-dorian-catastrophe-bahamas-unique.html

Globally, as many as 182 bird species are thought to have become extinct over the past five centuries. Of these, an astonishing 92% have been island species.

(https://scx1.b-cdn.net/csz/news/800/2019/66-hurricanedor.jpg)
A female Bahama woodstar. These small hummingbirds weigh just two or three grams.

Bahamas' Endemic Species Unlikely To Have Survived Dorian:

Bahama nuthatch
Bahama warbler
Abaco parrot (Bahama Amazon parrot)
Bahama yellow throat
Olive-capped warbler
Bahama woodstar hummingbird
Bahama swallow

https://youtu.be/0eiy6yWxeqA

.. for most birds, the best chance of survival would have been to seek shelter in the pine forest.

Once covering much of the islands, this native ecosystem had evolved alongside Atlantic hurricanes and should in theory provide native birds with protection from a major storm. However, throughout the 20th century much of the Bahama pine forest was lost to industrial logging or urban development, and what remains is highly fragmented. More recently, major hurricanes have caused direct wind damage and storm surges that have sent salt water far inland, killing trees.

For the birds, all this is a disaster. Not only has much of their native habitat disappeared, but going down from trees to hide in ground cover would not be an option if the ground was flooded by the torrential rain.

All this is compounded by a further environmental impact of Dorian: an oil spill from a large storage facility on Grand Bahama island which is reported to have been holding 1.8m barrels at the time. That, along with the fact a hurricane usually dumps lots of plastic into the ocean, means even surviving birds may struggle to find feed and fresh water.

-----------------------

Hundreds of Sea Turtle Nests Lost after Hurricane Dorian: 'It could have been worse'
https://phys.org/news/2019-09-hundreds-sea-turtle-lost-hurricane.html

Strong tropical winds and high tides associated with Hurricane Dorian unearthed hundreds of sea turtle nests on beaches along Florida's Space Coast, officials said.

... The state accounts for 90% of the nation's sea turtle nests and many East Coast beaches are expecting record numbers this year.

Officials at Canaveral National Seashore estimate that 1,500 nests of 6,000 marked before Dorian's arrival were affected.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2019, 07:46:16 PM
Quote
Stu Ostro (@StuOstro) 9/18/19, 11:49 AM
#Jerry #trippy infrared satellite temperature pattern as the sun rises on it is vivid but also meteorologically interesting, as it accentuates the intricacy of the deep convection and waves propagating out from the core of the intensifying storm.
https://twitter.com/stuostro/status/1174349610875121665
Image below; gif at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 18, 2019, 08:18:11 PM
A Haphazard Recovery in the Bahamas
https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/a-haphazard-recovery-in-the-bahamas
Quote
Police officers standing outside told me that journalists were not allowed to enter, but a man in a neon green New Balance shirt walked with me down the street so that he could tell me his story. His name was Wilson Jean-Baptiste. He was Haitian, from the city of Hinche, and had come to the Bahamas a year ago, to work. Until the storm destroyed everything he owned, he lived in the Mudd, in Marsh Harbour. He worked in construction and sent most of his earnings back to Haiti, to support his three children, who still lived there. He was most worried about his family, who had not been in the storm at all but depended on his earnings to survive.

The storm itself, he said, was “the worst in the world.” He said he knew some thirty people who had lost their lives, and had seen many people die. “When it isn’t your day to die, God helps you,” he said, about his own survival. We walked down the street, past a stadium next to the gym where the shelter was housed. Small groups of men and women greeted us in Creole as they walked past. For now, at least, Jean-Baptiste lives in Nassau. He left me at a street corner, then continued walking. He was going to look for work.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2019, 09:22:26 PM
All Was Quiet at the Birmingham Weather Office. Until a Trump Forecast Brought a Storm.
Quote
Until now, the office’s tight-knit staff of about 25 has offered little insight about what transpired that day and the fallout. In interviews with The New York Times, employees stood behind the tweet, which remains on the office’s Twitter feed. The person who wrote it declined through an intermediary to discuss the flap, but co-workers, expressing unity, argued that it had come from every last one of them.
...
“Let me be clear. The Birmingham office did this to stop public panic, to ensure public safety — the same goal that all the National Weather Service offices were working toward at that time,”...
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/15/us/birmingham-national-weather-service-dorian.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on September 18, 2019, 11:44:57 PM
TS Jerry has officially been christened:
Given the average path of hurricanes - maybe Bermuda gets another dose in about a weeks time ?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2019, 01:03:28 AM
TS Imelda
Quote
Matt Lanza (@mattlanza) 9/18/19, 6:04 PM
Tornado Warning east of Houston. This storm is almost certainly producing one west of Mont Belvieu, heading that way. Folks in MB and N or NE of Baytown should be in shelter.
https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1174444125200027649
- We could see a few more of these types of brief tornado producing cells over the next few hours. Probably isolated and nothing too crazy, but don't be shocked to see a few more additional warnings.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bluesky on September 19, 2019, 01:59:23 AM
"MOST Bahamians would be priced out of the real estate market if the building code were changed so residential homes and businesses could withstand a Category Five hurricane, former Bahamas Contractor’s Association President Leonard Sands said yesterday.
#
“If you make it mandatory that houses now have to be built to deal with that category of strength, you’re talking about absolutely wiping out the construction centre because no one would be able to qualify for their homes,” he said. “The cost of the houses is going up already in places where you see the home building market is depressed because a lot of people can’t qualify anymore.
#
“The typical house that you could probably build in Marsh Harbour can probably be built at $130,000. To build for Category Five storms, people in the islands would be building three-bedroom, two bathrooms houses for a quarter million.”
#
The cost increase is because of the amount of steel and concrete needed for reinforcement.
#
Some Bahamians have long taken pride in the strength of the country’s building code, but with 90 percent of the buildings in Marsh Harbour destroyed, for instance, some have questioned whether the standards are outdated in the era of climate change.
#
George Cornish, 51, Abaco’s chief councillor, said evacuating entire islands before a storm is preferable to changing the building code.
#
“From my point of view, we’ve never seen a hurricane like this in our life,” he said from the United States where he went after the storm. “I went through Hurricane Floyd that damaged docks and buildings and stuff and the damage wasn’t this. This was Category Five, maybe even a six. I don’t think the building codes needs to change. I think we have a proper building code that has stood the test of time of other hurricanes. I think they are strong but it’s just this hurricane is something we’ve never seen in our lives before. If you change the code, poor people and those in the middle class wouldn’t be able to afford to build.”
#
Instead, Mr Cornish said massive hurricane shelters should be built in communities on all inhabited islands. Some designated shelters, like the Central Abaco Primary School, initially housed hundreds of residents before the storm but became so severely compromised that people scrambled to leave in the midst of Dorian’s passage.
#
“We need to build something up to code that can stand 180mph winds and more,” he said, noting the only shelter built specifically to withstand major hurricanes is located in Sandy Point, a settlement that did not get directly hit by Dorian.
#
The existing building code is designed to protect buildings when facing winds of up to 150mph. Dorian was a monster storm that had wind gusts exceeding 200mph when it made landfall on Abaco on September 1."

http://www.tribune242.com/news/2019/sep/16/building-to-resist-category-five-too-expensive/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2019, 02:49:01 AM
There were 6 named storms in Atlantic and Pacific on Wednesday morning
https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/18/weather/weather-six-named-storms/index.html
Image below.

Quote
The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) 9/18/19, 4:40 PM
#Imelda has brought more than 20 inches of rain to some areas in the Gulf Coast of Texas. We are LIVE and bringing you the latest.
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1174422899442274305
3:30 pm CT Radar image at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2019, 03:14:38 AM
Hurricane Ike hit in 2008.
Quote
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 9/18/19, 6:30 PM
Some serious elevation going on with the new construction in the wake of hurricane Ike along the bolivar peninsula in Texas.
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1174450770835623937
Image below. 13-second video clip at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on September 19, 2019, 03:59:04 AM

George Cornish, 51, Abaco’s chief councillor, said evacuating entire islands before a storm is preferable to changing the building code.
#
“From my point of view, we’ve never seen a hurricane like this in our life,” he said from the United States where he went after the storm. “I went through Hurricane Floyd that damaged docks and buildings and stuff and the damage wasn’t this. This was Category Five, maybe even a six. I don’t think the building codes needs to change. I think we have a proper building code that has stood the test of time of other hurricanes. I think they are strong but it’s just this hurricane is something we’ve never seen in our lives before. If you change the code, poor people and those in the middle class wouldn’t be able to afford to build.”

The thing is that this types of hurricane will happen more frequently, because of warmer waters an changing atmospheric patterns. This person, Mr. Cornish, who I assume to be a professional in charge of safe guarding the lives of their people is painfully unaware of it. Sadly, we are seeing these types of events more frequently and the rate and severity will keep increasing while the world warms and Earth systems change

.
Quote
Instead, Mr Cornish said massive hurricane shelters should be built in communities on all inhabited islands. Some designated shelters, like the Central Abaco Primary School, initially housed hundreds of residents before the storm but became so severely compromised that people scrambled to leave in the midst of Dorian’s passage.


Not a bad idea. For the population and size of Bahamas a "super refuge" sounds like a good idea. A properly built and well stocked building can preserve life and property. It should be built on a high place with an extremely good foundation, reinforced walls and windows and roof.

Ideally such facility should serve a purpose during the time is not used a shelter.

Also like all real security measures, the people need to be properly trained on the procedures for before, during and after the event.

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: sidd on September 19, 2019, 05:19:09 AM
Re: hurricane shelters

Bangladesh:

https://weburbanist.com/2011/08/28/windbreakers-bangladesh-cyclone-shelter-architecture/

sidd
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2019, 07:10:34 PM
...
The thing is that this types of hurricane will happen more frequently, because of warmer waters an changing atmospheric patterns. This person, Mr. Cornish, who I assume to be a professional in charge of safe guarding the lives of their people is painfully unaware of it. Sadly, we are seeing these types of events more frequently and the rate and severity will keep increasing while the world warms and Earth systems change

Quote
Instead, Mr Cornish said massive hurricane shelters should be built in communities on all inhabited islands. Some designated shelters, like the Central Abaco Primary School, initially housed hundreds of residents before the storm but became so severely compromised that people scrambled to leave in the midst of Dorian’s passage.


Not a bad idea. For the population and size of Bahamas a "super refuge" sounds like a good idea. A properly built and well stocked building can preserve life and property. It should be built on a high place with an extremely good foundation, reinforced walls and windows and roof.

Ideally such facility should serve a purpose during the time is not used a shelter.

Also like all real security measures, the people need to be properly trained on the procedures for before, during and after the event.

A sturdy hurricane shelter is a good idea.  But as you say, destructive storms are occurring more frequently.  How often can the local populace afford to rebuild their own homes, and lives, before they become climate refugees?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on September 19, 2019, 07:23:17 PM
JERRY
The chance of Bermuda getting a 2nd walloping has increased
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2019, 08:17:16 PM
Quote
Eric Berger (@SpaceCityWX) 9/19/19, 2:09 PM
Houston storm tracks today be like ...
https://twitter.com/spacecitywx/status/1174747385337196545
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2019, 08:32:04 PM
Videos from local Texas TV station.  People have abandoned their cars on flooded streets; others saying they’ve been stuck there for four hours.  Water 3 feet deep (1 m) or more in places.

I-10 blocked in Chambers, Jefferson counties | abc13.com
Quote
Chambers County Emergency Management said that water is in businesses and homes, reminding people that if they do evacuate and go to a shelter, remember to bring their pets, have them on a leash and bring food.
https://abc13.com/weather/i-10-blocked-in-chambers-jefferson-counties/5552127/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2019, 08:59:02 PM
Quote
Taylor Trogdon (@TTrogdon) 9/19/19, 1:57 PM
White Oak Bayou near Houston has risen an astounding 20 feet in just one hour. That is a remarkable response to the rainfall rates experienced around metro Houston over the last few hours.
https://twitter.com/ttrogdon/status/1174744357150158849
Image below.

——
Quote
Houston Bush Airport (@iah) 9/19/19, 1:38 PM
Roads approaching the airport are flooded, if you have to pick someone up from the airport right now, delay your drive. The airport is open, we have power and restaurants are open, so your passenger will be ok.
https://twitter.com/iah/status/1174739658573529089
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 19, 2019, 10:44:40 PM
More videos of flooding

https://www.katc.com/news/national-news/imeldas-flooding-rains-close-portion-of-i-10-near-beaumont
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2019, 11:07:27 PM
The Weather Channel:
“Some areas in Southeast Texas have picked up 40 inches of rain in 3 days.”

40 inches = 1 meter!

Hurrican Harvey in 2017 dumped over 50 inches of rain.  At the time, that broke the record for the greatest amount of rain recorded from a single tropical storm or hurricane in the continental United States. It’s more than 4 feet of rain.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2019, 11:25:56 PM
Near (now flooded by) White Oak Bayou.  The gas station was completely rebuilt after being inundated in Hurricane Harvey.  Note the “Flood Gauge” sign.

-TWC
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2019, 11:45:34 PM
White Oak Bayou, on a normal day, and today.
To the far right, behind the line of trees under the ramp in the second image, is actually a highway.

-TWC
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2019, 03:11:27 AM
Houston, Texas.
Buffalo Bayou flooding.
- The Weather Channel
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 20, 2019, 07:13:01 AM
Texas Is Drowning Under One of the Wettest Storms in US History
https://www.livescience.com/amp/imelda-catastrophic-flooding-texas.html

... Storms that drop this much rain are estimated to appear once in a millennium, according to precipitation models created by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). But the last 1,000-year-rainfall to inundate Texas was Hurricane Harvey — which slammed the state just two years ago.

(https://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/plots/29.9247_-94.1392_pds_DDF_in_ari.png)
(https://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/imgs/yrs_legend_pds.png)(https://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/imgs/durs_legend.png)
https://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/pfds_printpage.html?lat=29.9247&lon=-94.1392&data=depth&units=english&series=pds

Eric Holthaus
https://mobile.twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1174719922586472449?s=20

This is now one of the worst fresh-water floods in American history.

TS #Imelda has brought more than 41 inches of rain in the past 3 days to Texas — that’s a 1-in-1000 year rainfall event, just 2 years after Harvey (also a 1-in-1000 year event.)

We are in a climate emergency.

For southeast Texas, 41 inches would be a very wet *two month* period, not expected more than once every 100 years (in a stable climate). It’s happened in three days.

https://t.co/MEipToEeGP?amp=1

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EE1xPj1X4AYXJuV?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on September 20, 2019, 10:41:21 AM
Meanwhile, in the northern Indian Ocean.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 20, 2019, 05:50:27 PM
Barges Break Loose and Strike I-10 Interstate Bridge near Houston after Imelda Forces 400 Water Rescues and Strands 300 Drivers
https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/20/weather/imelda-flooding-friday-wxc/index.html
https://www.nola.com/news/hurricane/article_b1c443c0-dba5-11e9-9b20-8be03c7f238e.html

(https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/190920081926-02-houston-flooding-barge-0920-large-169.jpg)

... The Coast Guard says at least two of the barges struck the Interstate 10 bridge over the San Jacinto River at Channelview, about 15 miles east of Houston.

Harris County Sheriff Ed Gonzalez says there is possible structural damage to the bridge, and that it won't reopen until inspections occur.

Photos from a Houston TV station show at least two support columns with large cracks in them.

Both bridges were closed to traffic Friday morning, and vessel movement beneath them remained suspended following strong currents Thursday evening, Perez said.

At least one loose barge is carrying an unknown hazardous substance, Perez said.

(https://s3-ca-central-1.amazonaws.com/quincy-network/wp-content/uploads/sites/12/2019/09/IMELDA-FLOODING-BRIDGE-CLOSED.png)

https://twitter.com/DougDelonyKHOU/status/1175021301548933120/photo/1

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EE6DopqXkAA61Y8.jpg)

In addition to the bridge, parts of Interstate 10 remain closed in Louisiana and Texas because of flooding related to Imelda, traffic officials said Friday morning.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 20, 2019, 07:07:41 PM
OK, this guy has an axe to grind, yet the topic, if very improbable, does not seem impossible to me:
Is California About To Get Hit By A Hurricane For The Very First Time In U.S. History?
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/is-california-about-to-get-hit-by-a-hurricane-for-the-very-first-time-in-u-s-history
Quote
In the entire history of our country, a hurricane has never made landfall in the state of California.  So if such a thing actually happened, it would be considered to be an extremely unusual event.  Well, right now there are three very dangerous tropical storms swirling in the eastern Pacific Ocean.  Tropical Storm Kiko is not expected to be a serious threat to make landfall, but Tropical Storm Lorena and Tropical Storm Mario “are expected to become hurricanes by Friday as they approach the Mexican coast”.  Tropical Storm Lorena is the more immediate threat, and the latest forecast is projecting that it will reach Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula by Saturday.  If it maintains hurricane strength and continues to ride up the west coast, it is entirely possible that we could see something that we have never seen before.  Most forecasters don’t want to talk too much about it yet, because it truly would be an unprecedented event, but there really is a chance that California could get hit by a hurricane for the very first time in U.S. history.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: mitch on September 20, 2019, 08:19:46 PM
The person is wrong about history. A hurricane hit San Diego in 1858:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1858_San_Diego_hurricane
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 20, 2019, 08:52:26 PM
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/15E_tracks_latest.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14E_tracks_latest.png)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 21, 2019, 01:03:43 AM
Imelda.  Houston, Texas.

2 dead as flooding disaster brings Houston area to standstill
https://abcnews.go.com/US/imelda-dumps-feet-rain-parts-texas/story?id=65739994

Images below from The Weather Channel.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 22, 2019, 02:22:41 AM
Hurricane Lorena makes landfall at Mexico's Los Cabos resort
https://phys.org/news/2019-09-hurricane-lorena-threatens-mexico-los.html

"The eye of Hurricane Lorena is now passing over the coast of Los Cabos," Mexico's hurricane monitor, CONAGUA, wrote on Twitter.

According to CONAGUA, Lorena was packing sustained winds of 140 kilometers (87 miles) per hour as it battered Los Cabos, making it a Category One hurricane on the scale of one to five.

After moving slowly northwest throughout the morning, it ground to a halt 70 kilometers from the beach town of Cabo San Lucas, dumping torrential rain on the area.

The US National Hurricane Center said the storm was expected to pour up to 20 centimeters (eight inches) of rain on the region, which "may result in flash flooding."

It warned that the storm's trajectory was "highly uncertain."

(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP15/refresh/EP152019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/234126_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2019, 06:02:48 PM
National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) 9/22/19, 5:13 AM
NEW: Tropical Storm #Karen has formed in the Windward Islands this morning, and a variety of watches and warnings are in effect. A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued later today for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Full advisory: hurricanes.gov
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1175699547516858371
Image below.  Tropical storm winds map at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 22, 2019, 06:29:42 PM
That sure looks like a redux of 'Sandy'. Hopefully, it'll head towards Greenland.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/12L_geps_latest.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2019, 09:41:15 PM
Quote
EyeOnTheTropics (@OnTropics) 9/22/19, 2:41 PM
New #Euro run for #TropicalStormKaren continues showing a left turn sometime Friday. #12z run backs off #Karen's intensity and has it farther North than the 00z run, which is more in line with the GFS. Still VERY EARLY, but seems a stronger storm=stronger ridge=farther South
https://twitter.com/ontropics/status/1175842598684168192

Quote
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 9/22/19, 2:38 PM
That’s never a good sign.
As I said, going to be a long week ahead. Already tough going today for Tobago as RAIN once again causes significant problems. Will need to watch #Karen closely.
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1175841811547512832
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on September 23, 2019, 10:58:54 AM
Karen

18 frames, 10-minute increments

Click to play!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on September 23, 2019, 11:19:32 AM
This one is going to hit the Arabian Peninsula.

03A HIKAA (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#03A)
Quote
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 23, 2019:

Location: 20.2°N 64.6°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 994 mb
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 23, 2019, 04:59:45 PM
Quote
The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) 9/23/19, 8:11 AM
Tropical Depression Thirteen has formed near the African coast and will likely grow into Hurricane #Lorenzo as it moves through the Atlantic this week:
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2019-09-22-tropical-depression-thirteen-tropical-storm-lorenzo-cabo-verde
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1176106688903966720
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 23, 2019, 07:25:13 PM
At the autumnal equinox, this is where the global tropical season stands based on accumulated cylcone energy (ACE):

North Atlantic:  82.0, an increase of 11.9% above the average ACE of 73.3
Northeast Pacific:  92.1, a decrease of 10.4% from the average of 102.8
Northwest Pacific:  113.4, a decrease of 36.2% from the average of 177.8
North Indian:  34.6, an increase of 317% above the average of 8.3

Northern Hemisphere:  322.1, a decrease of 11% from the average of 362.2

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on September 23, 2019, 09:50:23 PM
Hikaa has hurricane power now. 70 kt / 985 mb. Image from worldview (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov).

Only 3 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Arabian_Peninsula_tropical_cyclones#Climatological_statistics) storms affected the Arabian Peninsula in September.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on September 24, 2019, 06:34:47 PM
Karen moving quite fast now.

18 frames, 20-minute increments

Click to play
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on September 24, 2019, 06:55:32 PM
Quote
The weather station of Duqum airport has recorded a mean wind of 52 knots and gusting of 67 knots at 6:25 PM accompanied with heavy rain as the the tropical cyclone #Hikaa approaches coasts of al Wusta governorate.
Source (https://twitter.com/OmanMeteorology/status/1176508779950686213).
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 24, 2019, 09:54:18 PM
Tropical Storm Imelda left 5 dead in Texas and many flooded. Will FEMA aid come next?
https://www.texastribune.org/2019/09/23/tropical-storm-imelda-leaves-texans-wondering-if-theyll-get-fema-money/
Quote
Five deaths are linked to floods from Tropical Storm Imelda, the worst storm in Texas since Hurricane Harvey and one of the wettest tropical cyclones in the nation’s history, according to the National Weather Service.

Imelda dumped as much as 43 inches of rain in some parts of southeast Texas, according to the National Weather Service. In comparison, Harvey dropped about 60 inches of rain.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 26, 2019, 02:59:17 AM
Quote
… Models agree that Karen’s forward motion will stall as the steering currents collapse. The latest NHC forecast depicts Karen making a small clockwise loop before embarking on a west-southwest track Saturday and Sunday as the upper high builds near and to the north of Karen, blocking recurvature. On such a course, Karen would approach the Bahamas about a week from now and could theoretically continue onward into Cuba or Florida later next week.

On Jerry’s current track, the center is likely to pass less than 70 miles to the northwest of Bermuda on Wednesday evening. Since tropical storm-force winds are predicted to extend out about 70 miles to the northeast of Jerry’s center at that time, Bermuda could see tropical storm-force winds, in addition to about 1” of rain. The 11 am EDT Wednesday wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 67% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo became the Atlantic’s fifth hurricane of the year at 5 am EDT Wednesday. Hurricane Lorenzo gives the Atlantic 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index of 87 so far in 2019. An average season typically has 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index of 76 by September 25.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/After-Puerto-Rico-and-Virgin-Islands-What-Next-Karen
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on September 26, 2019, 03:38:13 PM
Lorenzo is major hurricane currently. 110 kt / 955 mb (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#13L).
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on September 26, 2019, 11:47:54 PM
Lorenzo (September 26) and Dorian (August 31) in comparison. 1 km/pixel. Lorenzo is bigger.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: miki on September 27, 2019, 04:37:25 AM
Lorenzo (September 26) and Dorian (August 31) in comparison. 1 km/pixel. Lorenzo is bigger.

A monster. And so far East. May it remain a storm for the fish.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: be cause on September 28, 2019, 12:14:37 AM
Not happy seeing Lorenzo possibly tracking towards Ireland . We seem to be getting more than our share of post-tropical depressions of late . This could be the season's nasty one . b.c.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: philopek on September 28, 2019, 03:25:09 AM
Not happy seeing Lorenzo possibly tracking towards Ireland . We seem to be getting more than our share of post-tropical depressions of late . This could be the season's nasty one . b.c.

Perhaps the "Lord" decided to send as many of those to places where compared to all the self-destruction in form of Brexit and electing criminal and mentally ill diletants like GWB, DJT, BoJo and the likes, the damage of a little extra storm does not add much to the works. [sarc]
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on September 28, 2019, 06:51:55 AM
And because they keep printing money, The US, UK, Europe... They add more to climate change than anybody else on this planet.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bluesky on September 28, 2019, 08:39:52 AM
  Cat 4 Lorenzo set record of the  strongest hurricane so far East in the Atlantic according to the hurricane scientist Philip Klotzbach from Univeey of Colorado, and reported by wunderground cat 6 / Jeff Masters' blog:

Lorenzo had peaked with 145 mph winds and a central pressure of 937 mb at 5 am EDT Friday at 42.1°W longitude.  Tropical storm wind expands to 450 miles

www.wunderground.com/cat6/Category-4-Lorenzo-Setting-Records-Karen-Weakening-Tropical-Depression?cm_ven=cat6-widget
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on September 29, 2019, 03:43:09 AM
Lorenzo is intensifying again. 130 kt / 936 mb (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#13L) / 23.8°N 45.0°W.

Update: Lorenzo is category 5 hurricane.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: MrGreeny on September 29, 2019, 10:08:08 AM
Hurricane Lorenzo now peaks at 925mb with 160mph winds.

Currently heading north at 10mph.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 29, 2019, 12:16:37 PM
Not happy seeing Lorenzo possibly tracking towards Ireland

The resultant swell is due to arrive here in North Cornwall on Friday:
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: miki on September 29, 2019, 07:03:37 PM
The second Cat 5 hurricane of 2019!

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1178130426885480449

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 29, 2019, 07:23:47 PM
Richard Dixon on Twitter: "All >=115kt hurricanes since 1960 on or after 26th September. Unless I've made a howler in analysing the data, #Lorenzo is quite an anomaly.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/catinsight/status/1177303247553478656
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on September 29, 2019, 10:07:25 PM
Lorenzo has the UK met office scratching its collective head.

Some models say it will collapse near the UK, some say not, some say France, some say North of Scotland. But that was earlier today.

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 30, 2019, 01:58:43 AM
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 9/29/19, 4:17 PM
Take a look at the size of this conglomeration of storms over the north Atlantic in 96 hours. Lorenzo is on the right. We’re talking 1000s of miles of strong wind and huge seas! Amazing!
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1178403429594619905
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Yuha on September 30, 2019, 04:30:01 AM
Three Rescued After Tugboat Sinks in Hurricane Lorenzo
https://weather.com/news/news/2019-09-28-bourbon-rhode-boat-crew-rescued-lorenzo (https://weather.com/news/news/2019-09-28-bourbon-rhode-boat-crew-rescued-lorenzo)

Quote
At a Glance
  • The Bourbon Rhode sank Thursday with 14 crew on board.
  • An emergency beacon indicated the boat was in the center of Hurricane Lorenzo.
  • The three survivors are reported to be in good health.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 30, 2019, 01:25:14 PM
So could Lorenzo be the "Great Storm" of 2019 for the UK, like 1703 and 1987?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on October 01, 2019, 09:45:07 PM
Hurricane Lorenzo to Bring 70-Foot Waves to Azores
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-hurricane-lorenzo-foot-azores.html

The Category 2 Hurricane Lorenzo is expected to hit the Portuguese islands Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Waves up to 22 meters (72 feet) high and hurricane wind gusts over 200 kilometers mph (124 mph) are forecast for some islands.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center forecasts continuing large swells around the North Atlantic basin in the coming days, producing life-threatening surf and rip tide conditions. It predicts that Lorenzo will be slow to weaken but probably will be below hurricane strength as it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom.

Britain's Met Office said Lorenzo would bring very strong winds and heavy rains to western areas of the U.K. on Thursday and Friday.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 06, 2019, 02:25:24 PM
The Weather Channel: "#Hagibis poses a #typhoon threat for the Northern Mariana Islands, then Japan...”
https://mobile.twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1180594986183581696
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 06, 2019, 02:37:32 PM
Hurricane Lorenzo to Bring 70-Foot Waves to Azores.

Britain's Met Office said Lorenzo would bring very strong winds and heavy rains to western areas of the U.K. on Thursday and Friday.

Fortunately inside some shelter the waves were a lot smaller than that in the U.K. yesterday!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 06, 2019, 07:45:20 PM
A monster grew in the Gulf of Mexico. Here’s why more may follow
Quote
The intensity of tropical cyclones likely will increase on average by 1 to 10 percent, with more Category 4 and 5 storms, but the overall number of hurricanes will stay the same or slightly reduce in number.

Also, Emanuel said he expects the odds of hurricanes rapidly intensifying – defined as an increase in wind speeds of 35 mph or more in a 24-hour period – will increase in a warming world. According to one of his studies, a storm that intensifies by 70 mph in the 24 hours before landfall occurred about once per century in the climate of the late 20th Century.

That may occur every 5-10 years by the end of this century if climate change continues without abatement.

“We are confident we will see more rapidly intensifying storms,” Emanuel said.
https://www.jacksonville.com/news/20191005/monster-grew-in-gulf-of-mexico-heres-why-more-may-follow
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 07, 2019, 04:05:35 AM
Or is MJO an overrated threat?
Quote
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 10/6/19, 1:52 PM
Just don't see how we get out of October without significant development in the Caribbean or vicinity with this kind of look to the MJO. Global models hinting at something popping up in about a week. We shall see...
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1180903692414996483
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on October 07, 2019, 08:29:21 PM
It's already a cat 5 typhoon. https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/tropics-storm-hagibis-destined-to-become-a-typhoon?fbclid=IwAR34iNNq2dczUMPhkejW70QO_xy-MsjDaeU5JGJZzvX3--5prII-UdRWAN4
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on October 08, 2019, 01:06:58 AM
Hurricane Dorian Spilled More Than a Million Gallons of Oil in the Bahamas
https://earther.gizmodo.com/hurricane-dorian-spilled-than-a-million-gallons-of-oil-1838844023

Nearly 1.5 million gallons of oil have spilled since Hurricane Dorian destroyed an oil storage facility on Grand Bahama Island last month. The worst part? Equinor, the company that owns the oil facility, still isn’t done cleaning up the mess, which means the final total will be higher than it is right now.

Erik Haaland, a press officer with Equinor, confirmed to Earther on Monday that the Norway-based company had recovered 35,000 barrels of oil as of Sunday. That amounts to 1.47 million gallons—and the company still hasn’t released a final estimate of oil lost.

... The Equinor South Riding Point oil facility sits on the southern coast of Grand Bahama Island near the town of High Rock. It stored 75 million gallons of oil, Romauld Ferreira, the Bahamas’ environment and housing minister, told local news. But it remains unclear how much of that oil has been spilled into the environment. Enough has spilled to paint the on-site containers and leave a pungent smell throughout the area, according to those who have visited. And he clean-up effort has required 250 people and heavy machinery (such as vacuum trucks) on the ground.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 08, 2019, 06:30:26 PM
It seems as though Jeff Masters has parted company with WUnderground. However he has a new blog at Scientific American:

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/eye-of-the-storm/hurricane-dorian-was-worthy-of-a-category-6-rating/

Quote
Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes are rare. Only 7% of the 243 hurricanes observed since accurate satellite measurements began in 1983 have reached that catastrophic intensity. And it is truly exceptional to see a category 5 hurricane as strong as Hurricane Dorian, which powered ashore on Great Abaco Island in The Bahamas on September 1, 2019, with sustained winds of 185 mph and gusts up to 220 mph. Winds of this strength would make Dorian worthy of a category 6 rating, if it existed.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 08, 2019, 07:58:36 PM
Jeff Masters is Leaving Weather Underground in November (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Jeff-Masters-Leaving-Weather-Underground-November)
 
   Dr. Jeff Masters  ·   October 3, 2019, 10:39 AM EDT

He's not quite or totally gone!  "The rumors of [his departure] have been greatly exaggerated"
:)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on October 09, 2019, 10:44:37 AM
Typhoon Hagibis. 140 kt / 909 mb (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#20W).
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 09, 2019, 03:33:11 PM
As we near the end of the 2019 season, global cylconic activity has been near normal.  Higher Atlantic and Indian ocean storms have been counter by lower Pacific (both eastern and western) activity.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 09, 2019, 05:41:52 PM
As far as the Atlantic goes, here's the chart of historical storm frequency.  The first half of October has a pretty good chance of seeing a storm, still.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fangelfishphotography.com%2Fimages%2Fpeakofseason.png&hash=2bbf2a91a6fd0f488a0315aabce43124)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on October 10, 2019, 10:00:30 AM
Hagibis maintains intensity. 140 kt / 904 mb (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#20W).
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Juan C. García on October 11, 2019, 12:38:28 AM
Quote
On Sunday morning, it was a tropical storm. By Monday morning, it had Category 5 winds. Super Typhoon Hagibis, currently moving near the Federated States of Micronesia in the northwestern Pacific Ocean, is a monster that gathered strength at one of the fastest rates ever observed on Earth.

The storm has a massive shield of towering thunderstorms surrounding a pinhole-like eye that is just a few miles across.

Its 160 mph winds firmly establish it as a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon, looming as a behemoth on satellite after a period of extremely rapid intensification.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/10/07/tropical-storm-category-hours-super-typhoon-hagibis-intensifies-one-fastest-rates-record/?wpisrc=nl_green&wpmm=1 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/10/07/tropical-storm-category-hours-super-typhoon-hagibis-intensifies-one-fastest-rates-record/?wpisrc=nl_green&wpmm=1)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on October 11, 2019, 05:07:55 AM
As we near the end of the 2019 season, global cylconic activity has been near normal.  Higher Atlantic and Indian ocean storms have been counter by lower Pacific (both eastern and western) activity.

Global cyclonic activity has not been "normal". Ask anyone in the Bahamas.

 If you mean the sum of the cyclonic winds or some other cherry, then the word you are looking for is average, not normal.

There was nothing normal about the 2 cat 5s in the Atlantic, although if the world keeps warming it will be normal.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on October 11, 2019, 07:59:24 AM
There was nothing normal about the 2 cat 5s in the Atlantic, although if the world keeps warming it will be normal.
1932, 1933, 1961, 2005, 2007, 2017, 2019. It was not extremely rare.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Juan C. García on October 11, 2019, 08:02:33 AM
There was nothing normal about the 2 cat 5s in the Atlantic, although if the world keeps warming it will be normal.
1932, 1933, 1961, 2005, 2007, 2017, 2019. It was not extremely rare.
It happened 3 times in the XX Century & four times in the first 19 years of the XXI Century.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on October 11, 2019, 08:22:57 AM
Some observations could be missed in the XX century.

This year has unusual category 5 cyclones but total activity was not outstanding in the Atlantic.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: TerryM on October 11, 2019, 10:54:09 AM
Time to consider the mainland?
Say a thousand kilometers away from the nearest salt water?

Terry
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Darvince on October 11, 2019, 11:26:54 AM
Many storms are only category 5 away from land, and before recon started in the 1940s, they would have been missed unless they struck land at category 5. And it wasn't until the 60s that we had the satellites to show us when we were missing a hurricane in the first place. If you take a look on Wikipedia (which has very nice coverage for tropical cyclones) at Atlantic hurricane seasons early in the 20th century, there is an abundance of category 2s and 3s that we simply don't see now that we have detailed observation across the whole ocean. Rapid intensification means that the distribution of hurricane intensities we see should have more Category 4s than 2s and 3s. Some of the lack of cat 4s/5s is because you will be hard pressed to get ship observations from stronger storms, simply as they're so likely to capsize or wreck when in a strong hurricane.

Here are a few that show what I mean (yes, I chose them myself and therefore they aren't wholly representative; no, I'm not trying to intentionally mislead you, I chose more active seasons because they show the phenomenon more clearly)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1909_Atlantic_hurricane_season
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/008592470d9a95121ab323cd74279815.png)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1916_Atlantic_hurricane_season
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/479cbc28751f6b501785039618f4482c.png)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1910_Atlantic_hurricane_season
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/92ab4f93b23a4471d0256ee17753f277.png)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1936_Atlantic_hurricane_season
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/daf94e44aec20dbc1564f591eaebe240.png)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1894_Atlantic_hurricane_season
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/d48e3abbf5346f480e011ffd02b81bd2.png)

For category 5, the earliest cat 5 I see that wasn't near or over land when it was thought to be category 5 is the 1938 New England hurricane.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on October 11, 2019, 11:52:47 AM
There was nothing normal about the 2 cat 5s in the Atlantic, although if the world keeps warming it will be normal.
1932, 1933, 1961, 2005, 2007, 2017, 2019. It was not extremely rare.


We are entering a new "normal". It doesn't matter how hard people deny it, the new normal won't last long. It will get worse.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 11, 2019, 04:27:28 PM
There was nothing normal about the 2 cat 5s in the Atlantic, although if the world keeps warming it will be normal.
1932, 1933, 1961, 2005, 2007, 2017, 2019. It was not extremely rare.


We are entering a new "normal". It doesn't matter how hard people deny it, the new normal won't last long. It will get worse.

Except that the new "normal" is not all that different from the old "normal." 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tropical-cyclones/201813
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on October 11, 2019, 07:11:40 PM
When you talk about the Atlantic only, about the last 100 years. There is a giant difference. I can't remember what it was. But the number very big hurricanes more than doubled, if you calculate in groups of 10 years. It was something like that. At some point i was looking at these numbers, and there was no doubt possible how big the difference is.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on October 11, 2019, 07:24:29 PM
Hagibis starts to hit Japan, this will be a hard weekend for them.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: wdmn on October 11, 2019, 07:51:58 PM
There was nothing normal about the 2 cat 5s in the Atlantic, although if the world keeps warming it will be normal.
1932, 1933, 1961, 2005, 2007, 2017, 2019. It was not extremely rare.

We are entering a new "normal". It doesn't matter how hard people deny it, the new normal won't last long. It will get worse.

Except that the new "normal" is not all that different from the old "normal." 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tropical-cyclones/201813


"Climate change has already made Atlantic hurricanes more fierce, driving up the number of storms that rapidly intensify, become more lethal and difficult to forecast, according to new research led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Published Thursday in the journal Nature, the research looked at storms churning in the Atlantic over nearly three decades between the 1980s and 2000s and found the number of storms that underwent rapid intensification nearly tripled. The team considered natural variations in climate that might drive the increase, but still found the number “highly unusual.”

“I wasn’t surprised there was an upward trend, but I was surprised by the magnitude,” said lead author Kiernan Bhatia, who earned a doctoral degree from the University of Miami and completed the research while a fellow at Princeton University working with the NOAA team."


https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2019/02/08/climate-change-is-already-making-atlantic-hurricanes-more-fierce-study-finds.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 11, 2019, 09:20:47 PM
There was nothing normal about the 2 cat 5s in the Atlantic, although if the world keeps warming it will be normal.
1932, 1933, 1961, 2005, 2007, 2017, 2019. It was not extremely rare.

We are entering a new "normal". It doesn't matter how hard people deny it, the new normal won't last long. It will get worse.

Except that the new "normal" is not all that different from the old "normal." 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tropical-cyclones/201813


"Climate change has already made Atlantic hurricanes more fierce, driving up the number of storms that rapidly intensify, become more lethal and difficult to forecast, according to new research led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Published Thursday in the journal Nature, the research looked at storms churning in the Atlantic over nearly three decades between the 1980s and 2000s and found the number of storms that underwent rapid intensification nearly tripled. The team considered natural variations in climate that might drive the increase, but still found the number “highly unusual.”

“I wasn’t surprised there was an upward trend, but I was surprised by the magnitude,” said lead author Kiernan Bhatia, who earned a doctoral degree from the University of Miami and completed the research while a fellow at Princeton University working with the NOAA team."


https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2019/02/08/climate-change-is-already-making-atlantic-hurricanes-more-fierce-study-finds.html

I would not be surprised either, starting with the lowest point.  NOAA went back to 1950, and found no overall trend (although there was a drop down the the 80s, and resurgence to previous levels since).  I guess who can make the data say whatever you like, if you just choose the right range.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 11, 2019, 10:26:01 PM
The NHC has started issuing advisories on Subtropical Storm Melissa:

Quote
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.  Gradual weakening is expected over the next couple of days, and Melissa is forecast to lose its subtropical characteristics by Saturday night.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km) from the center, primarily over waters.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on October 12, 2019, 09:04:14 AM
Typhoon Hagibis (https://twitter.com/AustraliaInJPN/status/1182873102826360833) covers Japan almost completely.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EGpozupVUAABXvk.jpg)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on October 12, 2019, 09:19:00 PM
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4kWSg0V8nYY

https://phys.org/news/2019-10-heavy-lash-tokyo-powerful-typhoon.html

----------------------

NASA Sees Atlantic Subtropical Storm Melissa Form Off New England Coast
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-nasa-atlantic-subtropical-storm-melissa.html

(https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/2019/nasaseesatla.jpg)

Satellite data has confirmed the formation of Subtropical Storm Melissa. NASA's Terra Satellite provided a visible image the former Nor'easter turned subtropical storm off the coast of New England.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 13, 2019, 02:06:03 PM
Typhoon Hagibis covers Japan almost completely.

A "LinkedIn friend" of mine works for Nissan in Tokyo. Ryusuke reported yesterday:

Quote
Blackout in my area of Tokyo, thought about powering the house with V2H but I had to evacuate due to flood...

No further news from him since then.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 13, 2019, 04:23:46 PM
One man was killed when a tornado flipped his car.

Typhoon Hagibis makes landfall in Japan, leaving at least 10 dead
Quote
Tokyo (CNN)Typhoon Hagibis made landfall Saturday night local time, as the country braces for hurricane-force winds that have killed at least 10 people and injured more than 140.

The Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) said the typhoon made landfall just before 7 p.m. local time on the Izu Peninsula, southwest of Tokyo.  The agency called for the public to remain vigilant for rain and gusts of wind, after it issued an "Emergency Weather Warning (Level 5)."  The warning was issued for towns and cities in 12 prefectures including areas in Tochigi, Ibaragi, Fukushima, Miyagi, and NIigat.

"It is a level 5 situation; some sort of disaster may have already taken place," said JMA weather forecaster, Yasushi Kajiwara. "People are strongly advised to act to protect their lives right away."

Authorities have confirmed at least 10 deaths due to the storm so far. Around 140 people have been injured, and nine are missing, according to Japan's Fire Disaster and Management Agency. ...
https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/12/asia/japan-typhoon-hagibis-intl-hnk/index.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 13, 2019, 04:28:59 PM
Things are warming up in West Africa once again:

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on October 13, 2019, 04:57:22 PM
Except that the new "normal" is not all that different from the old "normal." 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tropical-cyclones/201813

I'm sorry but what are you pointing at in this link? This is the final report for 2018, 2019 is not over. Yet you use this link as proof this season is "normal".

But even then when I look within your link what I read is :

Quote
The 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season had 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. This is above the 1981-2010 average of 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes. The number of named storms ranked as a tie for the tenth most on record. Both of the major hurricanes — Florence and Michael — impacted the U.S. mainland causing approximately 49 billion in damages between them and contributed to one of the costliest years in terms of weather and climate disasters for the nation. Although Florence weakened significantly before making landfall as a Category 1 storm, she brought unprecedented amounts of rainfall and subsequent flooding to parts of North and South Carolina. During the 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storms Alberto and Gordon as well as Hurricanes Florence and Michael made landfall in the U.S.

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of tropical cyclone activity also indicated an above-average season in the North Atlantic. The ACE index is used to calculate the intensity of the hurricane season and is a function of the wind speed and duration of each tropical cyclone. The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season had an approximate ACE of about 129 (x104 knots2) which is greater than the 1981-2010 average value of 104 (x104 knots2).


I'm not sure what is so "normal" about that.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 13, 2019, 07:19:46 PM
Except that the new "normal" is not all that different from the old "normal." 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tropical-cyclones/201813

I'm sorry but what are you pointing at in this link? This is the final report for 2018, 2019 is not over. Yet you use this link as proof this season is "normal".

But even then when I look within your link what I read is :

Quote
The 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season had 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. This is above the 1981-2010 average of 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes. The number of named storms ranked as a tie for the tenth most on record. Both of the major hurricanes — Florence and Michael — impacted the U.S. mainland causing approximately 49 billion in damages between them and contributed to one of the costliest years in terms of weather and climate disasters for the nation. Although Florence weakened significantly before making landfall as a Category 1 storm, she brought unprecedented amounts of rainfall and subsequent flooding to parts of North and South Carolina. During the 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storms Alberto and Gordon as well as Hurricanes Florence and Michael made landfall in the U.S.

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of tropical cyclone activity also indicated an above-average season in the North Atlantic. The ACE index is used to calculate the intensity of the hurricane season and is a function of the wind speed and duration of each tropical cyclone. The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season had an approximate ACE of about 129 (x104 knots2) which is greater than the 1981-2010 average value of 104 (x104 knots2).


I'm not sure what is so "normal" about that.

The season was slightly above average, well within one standard deviation.  2018 was 22nd highest, out of 69 years.  Over the past 14 years (including 2018, which currently stands at 118), 8 have been above the 70-year average, and 6 below.  One year was in the top 10, and one in the bottom 10.  How much more “normal” can you get?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: be cause on October 13, 2019, 08:12:40 PM
Republican Hurricanes are obviously stronger than Democratic ones , esp. when it comes to landfall in the good ol' you ass of A . b.c.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on October 13, 2019, 08:51:49 PM
For a second I thought about using bold, but I didn't. The problem is that there is too much to be bolded and it loses effectiveness. I'll try again.

Quote
The 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season had 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. This is above the 1981-2010 average of 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes. The number of named storms ranked as a tie for the tenth most on record. Both of the major hurricanes — Florence and Michael — impacted the U.S. mainland causing approximately 49 billion in damages between them and contributed to one of the costliest years in terms of weather and climate disasters for the nation. Although Florence weakened significantly before making landfall as a Category 1 storm, she brought unprecedented amounts of rainfall and subsequent flooding to parts of North and South Carolina. During the 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storms Alberto and Gordon as well as Hurricanes Florence and Michael made landfall in the U.S.

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of tropical cyclone activity also indicated an above-average season in the North Atlantic. The ACE index is used to calculate the intensity of the hurricane season and is a function of the wind speed and duration of each tropical cyclone. The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season had an approximate ACE of about 129 (x104 knots2) which is greater than the 1981-2010 average value of 104 (x104 knots2).


Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 13, 2019, 09:19:47 PM
Major hurricanes, though, are below average. This is what I would expect to most increase, so I am a bit surprised.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on October 13, 2019, 09:39:47 PM
There is many numbers about hurricane season. At the same time there is normal, below normal, above normal. We have a trend to worse but:
1. The trend should not make a show every year.
2. Unprecedented events should occur from time to time even in "stable" climate. 500-year events should occur 1 time in 5 years if our list contains 100 different ones.
3. This season has not finished.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on October 13, 2019, 10:41:24 PM
I thought that while evidence for increased frequency of hurricanes might be questionable, there was more confidence in the trend of hurricanes to increased intensity, and even worse, slower moving hurricanes, e.g Harvey, Dorian.

I guess the Bahamas thinks one is more than enough for a very long time.   
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 14, 2019, 12:22:17 PM
This morning's 5 day outlook for the North Atlantic:

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bluesky on October 14, 2019, 03:09:31 PM
Heavy death toll in Japan for a country with such a high standard of catastroph risk awareness and preparedness
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20191014_46/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on October 14, 2019, 03:28:51 PM
When we talk ice KkK focuses on area/extent, a lower-dimensional measure than volume that produces a very long term prediction. That way he can avoid the truth that the volume numbers reveal.

When we talk Hurricanes KkK focuses like a laser, on ACE, which only includes wind speed and duration. He must ignore the floods, the rapid intensification, the slower paths, and the increased destructiveness.

He must pretend that average = normal AND that ACE is the only average that matters. Lucky him for being able to do that. I guess I'm just jealous of his bliss.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 14, 2019, 03:39:54 PM
When we talk ice KkK focuses on area/extent, a lower-dimensional measure than volume that produces a very long term prediction. That way he can avoid the truth that the volume numbers reveal.

When we talk Hurricanes KkK focuses like a laser, on ACE, which only includes wind speed and duration. He must ignore the floods, the rapid intensification, the slower paths, and the increased destructiveness.

He must pretend that average = normal AND that ACE is the only average that matters. Lucky him for being able to do that. I guess I'm just jealous of his bliss.

Sometimes it is important to focus on the most relevant numbers, rather than those which best exemplify ones own viewpoint.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: P-maker on October 14, 2019, 04:35:04 PM
Did not realize until now that KK is a cartoon figure, which stems back from the '60ies. Through more than 700 posts over the past year, this guy has tried to divert discussions from relevant and meaningful conversation.

I feel ashamed that this ludicrous character ( from my own time zone! ) has been allowed to spoil so many threads over the past year. This thread in particular is about more than 60 dead people in Japan this weekend,  hundreds of victims in the Bahamas during the past month and many more to come.

To rephrase a certain young activist: "How dare you?"
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 14, 2019, 05:56:38 PM
Did not realize until now that KK is a cartoon figure, which stems back from the '60ies. Through more than 700 posts over the past year, this guy has tried to divert discussions from relevant and meaningful conversation.

I feel ashamed that this ludicrous character ( from my own time zone! ) has been allowed to spoil so many threads over the past year. This thread in particular is about more than 60 dead people in Japan this weekend,  hundreds of victims in the Bahamas during the past month and many more to come.

To rephrase a certain young activist: "How dare you?"

Glad to see that you recognize my character - also from my childhood time zone. 

How dare I?  You are the one diverting this thread from meaningful and relevant conversation.
Your post is typical of those who wish to influence scientific debate by incorporating an emotional element.  Sure, people feel for those who had to suffer through these diasterous events.  However, long term deaths have not increased due to hurricane activity.  Since 1880, the long term trend in Atlantic hurricane deaths is flat, i.e. no change.  On average, 760 hurricane fatalties have occurred annually.  That is the same today as it was 140 years ago, and that is total deaths!  Considering that the population has increased 5-fold since then, that is actually a significant drop in the death rate.  The deadliest years were 1900 (~12,000), 1998 (9,715), and 1930, 1963, and 1974 (~8,000 each).

The national hurricane center has calculated the accumulated cylcone energy (ACE) since 1950.  During that first decade (1950s) there were 69 total hurricanes.  This past decade (2010s), there have been 71.  NOAA has even stated that the trend in Atlantic hurricanes is "not significantly distinguishable from zero."  Sorry if I prefer solid scientific evidence over hyperbole.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: oren on October 14, 2019, 06:10:14 PM
Solid scientific evidence... ignoring the difference in advance warning and weather forecasting since 1880.
It's getting quite tiresome to witness your constant axe-grinding.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on October 14, 2019, 06:20:40 PM
Considering that the population has increased 5-fold since then, that is actually a significant drop in the death rate.

Actually, no! Considering there are weather forecasts and real buildings today, there are many other variables at play.

Quote
Sorry if I prefer solid scientific evidence over hyperbole.

You are cherrypicking. And i think you know that.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 14, 2019, 07:24:19 PM

Quote
Sorry if I prefer solid scientific evidence over hyperbole.

You are cherrypicking. And i think you know that.

Why, because I prefer to use the entire dataset, rather than selective data?  I think you have the cherrypicking backwards.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Lewis on October 14, 2019, 10:24:15 PM
You cant really compare hurricanes in our lifetime to hurricanes in the 1900s, unless it has to do with the strength and size of the hurricane itself. Since then we have had way better warnings that allow people to evacuate or take cover and we have seawalls that better protect us from hurricanes than before. Not to mention we have sturdier buildings.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: KiwiGriff on October 14, 2019, 11:04:44 PM
Global Warming and Hurricanes
An Overview of Current Research Results
F. Summary for Atlantic Hurricanes and Global Warming
Quote
In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm activity support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic. While one of our modeling studies projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century, we estimate that such an increase would not be detectable until the latter half of the century, and we still have only low confidence that such an increase will occur in the Atlantic basin, based on an updated survey of subsequent modeling studies by our and other groups.    A recent study finds that the observed increase in an Atlantic hurricane rapid intensification metric over 1982-2009 is highly unusual compared to one climate model’s simulation of internal multidecadal climate variability, and is consistent in sign with that model’s expected long-term response to anthropogenic forcing.   These climate change detection results for rapid intensification metrics are suggestive but not definitive, and more research is needed for more confident conclusions.
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/
Absence of  95% conclusive  evidence that it is happening is not the same as evidence it is not happening.
The physics of tropical cyclones  suggest warmer seas will result in stronger storms .
Physics  also suggests we will see warm core storms migrate poleward as the oceans warm .
Both of these effects are already apparent in what reliable data we have.
Waiting for such effects to hit an arbitrary level of statistical significance before we act means we would be  to far along to halt the changes. 



 
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Juan C. García on October 14, 2019, 11:44:02 PM
Absence of  XX% conclusive  evidence that it is happening is not the same as evidence it is not happening.

Waiting for such effects to hit an arbitrary level of statistical significance before we act means we would be  to far along to halt the changes.
Great statements, that apply to AWG in general!!!  ;)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Niall Dollard on October 15, 2019, 12:04:47 AM

Absence of  95% conclusive  evidence that it is happening is not the same as evidence it is not happening.


Agreed

Global Warming and Hurricanes
An Overview of Current Research Results
F. Summary for Atlantic Hurricanes and Global Warming

My thoughts precisely. F that Summary  :P

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on October 15, 2019, 12:35:42 AM
Sometimes it is important to focus on the most relevant numbers, rather than those which best exemplify ones own viewpoint.

But that is exactly what you are doing. You focus on the one metric that supports your conclusion and ignore everything else.

 You remind me of John Christy. The cowardly sop is laser focused in mid-troposphere temperature ignoring surface warming, sea warming, ice losses, and atmospheric changes. Even then, the warming is catching up to him. His own dataset confirms warming is real but he can't see it. And this is an actual scientist, even if a dishonest one.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Richard Rathbone on October 15, 2019, 03:51:35 AM
For the current thinking on how climate change is affecting cyclones see:

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I. Detection and Attribution

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1

There isn't overwhelming evidence for anything yet, but the sorts of things that look suspicious are listed in the summary.

 "Most authors agreed that the balance of evidence suggests detectable anthropogenic contributions to:
i) the poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the western North Pacific;
ii) increased occurrence of extremely severe (post-monsoon season) cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea;
iii)increased global average intensity of the strongest TCs since early 1980s;
iv) increase in global proportion of TCs reaching Category 4 or 5 intensity in recent decades;
and v) increased frequency of Hurricane Harvey-like extreme precipitation events in the Texas (U.S.) region. "
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: KiwiGriff on October 15, 2019, 06:56:44 AM
Quote
My thoughts precisely. F that Summary
I know I am not a  scientist.
I am more interested in the future risks of climate change  than  arbitrary significant figures needed for publishing iron clad conclusions in a  scientific paper .
I know  from personal interaction that Kerry Emanuel , Bob Henson and Jeff Masters, accessible and identifiable  experts in tropic cyclones, are all convinced the risk of stronger storms are both physically possible and probably happening now.
They are acknowledged  experts KK is just some random on the interwebs .
KK has a long history of down playing potentials and disregarding risks on here.
KK is a nobody with no authority at all except in questions in  their own field which I understand is chemistry so can safely be ignored.
Kerry Emanuel https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Z6eI_ZYAAAAJ&hl=en
Bob Henson and Jeff Masters, https://www.wunderground.com/cat6
 


Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 15, 2019, 02:25:28 PM
For the current thinking on how climate change is affecting cyclones see:

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I. Detection and Attribution

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1

There isn't overwhelming evidence for anything yet, but the sorts of things that look suspicious are listed in the summary.

 "Most authors agreed that the balance of evidence suggests detectable anthropogenic contributions to:
i) the poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the western North Pacific;
ii) increased occurrence of extremely severe (post-monsoon season) cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea;
iii)increased global average intensity of the strongest TCs since early 1980s;
iv) increase in global proportion of TCs reaching Category 4 or 5 intensity in recent decades;
and v) increased frequency of Hurricane Harvey-like extreme precipitation events in the Texas (U.S.) region. "

Very nice, and may I add a few more summaries:
i) The opinion on the author team was divided on whether any observed poleward TC changes demonstrate discernible anthropogenic influence.
ii) None of these observed tropical cyclone timeseries demonstrate clear evidence for a century-scale increase similar to that observed for global mean temperature.
iii-a)  U.S. landfalling hurricane counts (1878-2017) show a nominally negative decline, although
        the trend over 1900-2017 is not statistically significant.
iii-b) The timeseries of tropical cylcone landfalls for Japan since 1901 and global tropical cyclone
        and hurricane frequency since 1970 also show no strong evidence for trends.
iii)  In summary, no detectable anthropogenic influence has been identified to date in observed TC
      landfalling data, using Type I error avoidance criteria. From the viewpoint of Type II error
      avoidance, one of the above changes (decrease in severe landfalling TCs in eastern Australia)
      was rated as detectable, though not attributable to anthropogenic forcing.
iv)    A slight increasing trend in global intensity for the strongest TCs (at least hurricane
intensity) was identified (p-value of 0.1).
v)  we conclude that there is only low confidence in detection and attribution of any anthropogenic influence on historical TC intensity in any basin or globally.  However, ten of 11 authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggests that there is a detectable increase in the global average intensity of the strongest (hurricane-strength) tropical clyclones since the early 1980s.
vi)  the evidence for detectable increases in U.S storm total inundation levels, apart from changes expected from sea level rise influence, is mixed.
vii)  In summary, the author team had low confidence that anthropogenic influence specifically on hurricane precipitation rates has been detected. Alternatively, all authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggests that there has been a detectable long-term increase in occurrence of Hurricane Harvey-like extreme precipitation events in the eastern Texas region, and that anthropogenic forcing has contributed to this increase.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on October 15, 2019, 09:20:15 PM
2,667 Bags of Radioactive Waste From Fukushima Nuke Disaster Washed Away by Typhoon Hagibis
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3795303

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — As Typhoon Hagibis hammered Japan on Saturday (Oct. 12), thousands of bags containing radioactive waste have reportedly been carried into a local Fukushima stream by floodwaters, potentially having a devastating environmental impact.

According to Asahi Shimbun, a temporary storage facility containing some 2,667 bags stuffed with radioactive contaminants from the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster was unexpectedly inundated by floodwaters brought by Typhoon Hagibis. Torrential rain flooded the storage facility and released the bags into a stream 100 meters away.

Officials from Tamara City in Fukushima Prefecture said that each bag is approximately one cubic meter in size. Authorities were only able to recover six of the bags by 9 p.m. on Oct. 12, and it is uncertain how many remain on the loose while the possible environmental impact is being assessed.

... In Hakone, in Kanagawa Prefecture, 37.1 inches of rain fell in 24 hours on Saturday, setting a record for that location, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. In addition, 27 inches fell in heavily forested Shizuoka Prefecture southwest of Tokyo. In higher elevations just west of downtown Tokyo, 23.6 inches of rain fell, which was also a record.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: oren on October 15, 2019, 11:54:55 PM
Fukushima, the disaster that keeps on disastering.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on October 15, 2019, 11:59:27 PM
^
It's the Japanese word for clusterfuck.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on October 16, 2019, 10:03:02 AM
Seventeen.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Juan C. García on October 16, 2019, 12:34:13 PM
At Nullschool seems that there are two depressions forming, not just one.
One on the Pacific and one on the Gulf of Mexico.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 16, 2019, 08:17:40 PM
The Florida panhandle still has not recovered from Hurricane Michael.  :'(

Quote
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 10/16/19, 12:12 PM
12z GFS The most aggressive yet in developing a storm system in the Gulf of Mexico. While it may not be your classic looking tropical cyclone, the impacts would still be the same: heavy rain, wind and some coastal inundation possible.
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1184502441703858180
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 17, 2019, 09:14:46 PM
Quote
Capital Weather Gang on Twitter: "Bomb cyclone slams New England with 90 mph winds and 4+ inches of rain. Power was knocked out to >500,000 as the storm blew through, winds will stay gusty all day from D.C. to Maine.
Details:
Washington Post article: https://t.co/SZnOLZKpNY
https://mobile.twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1184841964270821376

Quote
Eric Fisher on Twitter: "Meteotsunami in Boston Harbor last night. Water spiked 4+ feet above normal tide. If this had hit during a high astro tide it would have set a new high water record
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1184809615202099200
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bluesky on October 17, 2019, 11:46:58 PM
in Japan Time


https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/10/16/national/flooding-tama-river-tokyo-crisis-typhoon-hagibis/#.XajgDPZuLIU


"Flooding of Tama River put capital on the brink of crisis during Typhoon Hagibis
by Reiji Yoshida
Staff Writer

Oct 16, 2019



Tokyo faced crisis last Saturday, with water levels in the Tama River quickly climbing as heavy rains and winds from Typhoon Hagibis inundated the Kanto region on an unprecedented scale.
Hakone, in Kanagawa Prefecture, saw a staggering 922.5 mm of rain that day alone — three times as much as the total for the month of October of an average year.


Levees all along the Tama, which stretches over 138 kilometers between Tokyo and Kanagawa Prefecture, were designed to withstand precipitation levels seen only once in every 200 years. But at the Ishihara observation station in the capital’s Chofu area, water levels had hit their highest-ever record of 6.24 meters by 11 p.m. on Saturday, far exceeding the 5.9 meters threshold the levees were built to withstand.
Since the levees were designed to have a safety margin of 1.5 meters, making their total height 7.4 meters at the Ishihara observation station, the riverbanks withstood the storm, but only barely.
Any failure of levees along the Tama River could have brought devastating flooding to areas of Tokyo and Kanagawa. For the first time ever, the city of Kawasaki issued an urgent warning, for 915,770 local residents to evacuate by 7 p.m. that night.
“Yes, the situation was very tense,” said Kenichi Ito, who heads the initial crisis management response team at Kawasaki Municipal Government.

In the age of climate change
That tense night for Tokyo and Kanagawa residents has underscored the risks Japan faces in the age of climate change, predicted to increase the number of powerful typhoons like Hagibis.
“This time, the (levees of the) Tama River withstood the typhoon well,” said Nobuyuki Tsuchiya, a senior civil engineering expert for the Tokyo-based Japan Riverfront Research Center.
But given the progression of climate change, stronger typhoons are more likely to strike Tokyo and the metropolitan area, which are “not in any way ready yet (to handle such storms),” he said.
In March 2018, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government released the results of a flood simulation based on a worst-case scenario involving a massive typhoon simultaneously causing heavy rains and tidal flooding.
The results were shocking: Waters would submerge about one-third of the 23 wards of central Tokyo, including 90 percent of Sumida, Katsushika and Edogawa wards, as well as parts of the Marunouchi, Shimbashi and Ginza downtown business districts — the heart of the nation’s capital.
The three wards in eastern Tokyo are particularly vulnerable because many of them are so-called “zero-meter zones,” meaning they are lower than sea level.
According to the metropolitan government, the simulation was based on a worst-case scenario that could happen only once every 1,000 to 5,000 years. But experts warn that powerful typhoons are likely to hit Tokyo more frequently than in the past as the climate continues to warm.
Last Saturday, the Arakawa River also rose to an alarming level, prompting the Edogawa Ward Office to issue an advisory for 432,000 local residents to evacuate."
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 18, 2019, 02:34:59 AM
Quote
National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) 10/17/19, 5:00 PM
Here are the 4 PM CDT Key Messages on Potential Tropical Cyclone #Sixteen. Latest information at: hurricanes.gov
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1184937203668942848
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 18, 2019, 08:43:59 PM
We're expecting some gusty weather tonight and tomorrow from Tropical Storm Nestor [formerly PTC 16] (Tallahassee, Florida, USA) with less than 60 mm (or between 75 and 125 mm - depending on the NOAA source!) of rain during the next ~24 hours.  A tri-state Sacred Harp (https://www.tallahasseearts.org/event/annual-tri-state-sacred-harp-convention/) sing got cancelled on us as the county which owns the facility we were going to rent is concerned about power outages.  :(  [But more spinach lasagna, which I prepared last night, for us!  :o]

Edit:  the "60 mm" forecast has changed to over 100.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on October 18, 2019, 09:01:51 PM
/me crossing fingers for Tor!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: be cause on October 19, 2019, 02:38:01 AM
Guess the rain is warm .. get out and enjoy it Tor .. b.c. :)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 19, 2019, 01:18:11 PM
What rain?
My rain gauge has 10 mm since yesterday (before this storm) and, except for my bare feet, I stayed dry going out to read the thing. (Still, over 50mm forecast over next 12 hours)
Warm?
It's 21 C outside - the 'coldest' since last spring! (I'll admit it is very pleasant outside right now, except that it's pitch black dark out there.)
Approaching tropical storm?
My approximation of wind at ground level right now, here, is 0 kts (converted to metric is 0 m/s).  Oh wait, I hear a breeze in the tree tops.  It's gone now.

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on October 19, 2019, 02:01:33 PM
See, finger-crossing obviously works.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on October 19, 2019, 02:56:53 PM
See, finger-crossing obviously works.

Not everybody has crossed their fingers, and even if they have......
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 19, 2019, 04:46:21 PM
Update...
rain gauge still indicates 10 mm of rain (I was 'walking' our 21 year old cat earlier (He loves to drink from the bird bath and walk around the house.), and there was this hyper-light rain that functionally evaporated off my skin instantly, so I guess there's been a trace of rain since 6 o'clock this morning (e.g., last 4 hours).  Forecast calls for about 25 mm in next two hours.  I'm wondering if we get 1. Just now a little rain shower has arrived.  Radar shows some 'yellow' overhead.  We'll get more than '1', but I rather doubt even 10 mm more.

It is definitely breezier now, well, intermittently breezier.

It is no longer pitch black dark outside  ::)

For some context, Tallahassee has had a very dry late summer that was broken earlier this week with 75 mm of rain in about 2 days, ending Wednesday.  More context: parts of the Florida Peninsula have received up to 100 mm of rain from Tropical Storm Nestor (now Post Tropical or Extra-tropical Nestor?) and at least one tornado.  Apparently its center has not yet come ashore.

Edit 3 and a half hours later:  my rain gauge has accumulated 25 mm total for this 'storm'.  There's a chance for some more 'rain' (drizzle).  A real pity our event was cancelled on us.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on October 20, 2019, 07:55:44 PM
The highest ACE for the North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone season is 46.1. Current value is 37.1.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on October 22, 2019, 02:04:55 PM
Pacific Typhoons - August & September 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TAbtHfTpPc
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 22, 2019, 03:14:52 PM
The highest ACE for the North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone season is 46.1. Current value is 37.1.

Yes, the North Indian Ocean has been well above average this year.  The North Atlantic has been above average also (by about 25%).  Conversely the entire Pacific basin has been below average for the year, resulting in a global ACE value below average.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bluesky on October 24, 2019, 12:10:26 AM
Typhoon Hagibis: as of October 20, 2019, 135 levees have been reported breached, according to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), affecting 78 rivers. Of the ~540 river gauging stations on Honshu island, more than 85 exceeded their 100-year return period peak flows, with more than 100 exceeding their historical records. A wide swath of Honshu just outside the Tokyo metro area received between 250 mm and 500+ mm (10 and 20+ inches) of rain; the resort town of Hakone, where 939.5 mm (37 inches) of precipitation was recorded, broke the calendar-day rainfall record for all of Japan. Hakone’s rainfall represents the second-heaviest 24-hour rainfall ever recorded in Japan—25 inches (635 mm) of the 37 inches fell in just 12 hours. Many regions received between 30% and 40% of their yearly rainfall in just two days, with more than 100 stations breaking daily rainfall records at those locations.According to the Fire and Disaster Management Agency (FDMA), more than 56,000 buildings in Japan have been impacted, as of October 20, 2019.

Source : Air Worldwide a catastrophe management agency estimating catastrophe risk for the insurance industry. The agency estimated Hagibis insurance losses within USD 8 bn to USD 16 bn but the modelling excludes landslides (they were numerous) , tornado (there was one big in Chiba prefecture) , losses to infrastructure, business interruption (when companies have to stop their business due to direct or indirect impact , e.g. impact on supply chain, by the typhoon) , demand surge (increase of materials and building skills demands leading to shortage and higher price), loss adjustments expenses (associated with investigating and settling insurance claims), marine hull and marine cargoes (e.g. a cargo ship sunk during the storm in the Bay of Tokyo).
Adding to typhoon Faxai, this year Japanes insurance companies will experience major losses and insurance policies will in increase significantly early next year, as it is the second year in a row with major losses,  together with the reinsurance related to catastrophe risk in Japan. Of course economic losses will be significantly higher.

https://alert.air-worldwide.com/EventSummary.aspx?e=932&tp=72&c=1
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bluesky on October 24, 2019, 12:25:25 AM
Typhoon Hagibis is also mentioned on Science mag website with interesting news:

"The disaster has shown that the levees built up over decades along virtually all of Japan’s major rivers may not provide protection from the increasingly powerful storms expected to accompany climate change. Even while construction crews are working to plug the numerous breeches in river embankments, experts and government officials are debating how to prepare for future storms.
Last week, the land and infrastructure ministry announced it was forming a panel of experts to study the embankment failures and recommend remediation options. But experts are also calling for more attention to evacuation planning and long-term measures to encourage people to move off lowlands susceptible to flooding."


The article continues with more scientific content, notably about the likely that there was an atmospheric river linked to Hagibis while the typhoon was going through Honshu island, they say that atmospheric rivers are usually related to mid latitude low pressure and that could be the first time that that an atmospheric was related to a tropical cyclone.

"Instead of high winds, however, Hagibis brought unusually sustained rainfall, apparently thanks to an accompanying weather phenomenon called an atmospheric river. Still imperfectly understood, atmospheric rivers are narrow channels of concentrated moisture in the atmosphere that sometimes form in association with midlatitude cyclones. There’s still some debate about whether what was seen with Hagibis meets the definition of an atmospheric river, says Kazuhisa Tsuboki, a meteorologist at Nagoya University in Japan, who is himself convinced that it does. It might be the first time the phenomenon occurs together with a tropical cyclone. Observations by radar and Japan’s Himawari 8 weather satellite, along with simulations, show a wide band of rainfall extending from the tropics to the northeast rim of Hagibis as it landed on central Japan. Tsuboki, who presented his preliminary findings on Hagibis at a workshop on severe weather in Taipei on 15 October, estimates the atmospheric river was carrying twice the volume of water of the entire Amazon and “provided a large amount of water vapor to the northeastern part of Hagibis.”
“I do agree with Tsuboki’s assessment that atmospheric rivers can be an important ingredient in extreme rainfall events like what we saw with Hagabis,” says Robert Rogers, a meteorologist at the Hurricane Research Division of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Miami, Florida. "

The article continues with the "new normal"
"This may be the new normal. Hagibis is the fourth major rainfall disaster to afflict Japan in the past 14 months; Tokyo was hit twice in less than 2 months. In July 2018, a succession of heavy downpours in western Japan caused flooding and mudslides that claimed more than 220 lives. Three of the top 10 most damaging Japanese typhoons since 1950 have occurred since 2018, according to a review by the Weather Underground meteorology website.
Climate change is likely causing a detectable increase in the global average intensity of hurricane-strength tropical cyclones, which increasingly occur farther north than before, climate modeler Thomas Knutson of NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, New Jersey, and colleagues from around the world concluded in a review paper earlier this year."


and the difficulty to protect the large urban center:
£But urban populations are much harder to protect. Tsuchiya says there is no room for larger river embankments in the major cities. And significant portions of Nagoya, Osaka, and Tokyo have sunk below sea level, leaving them vulnerable not only to overflowing rivers, but also to storm surges. In September 2018, for instance, a surge from Typhoon Jebi flooded Kansai International Airport, built on a humanmade island in Osaka Bay, disrupting flights for more than 2 weeks and causing major damage. A storm-tossed 2600-ton tanker slammed into and damaged the sole bridge connecting the airport to the mainland, stranding 5000 people on the island for a night.
The bottom line, Tsuboki says: “The Japanese government should consider more seriously the future projection of climate change issued by scientists and take action.”"

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/10/deadly-typhoon-forces-japan-face-its-vulnerability-increasingly-powerful-storms

Picture from the article with the possible atmospheric river:



Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: kassy on October 24, 2019, 02:26:44 PM
Lets hope this spurs them on to more action against global warming.

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 24, 2019, 03:14:55 PM
Lets hope this spurs them on to more action against global warming.

Why not just fix the decades-old levees?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on October 24, 2019, 03:19:19 PM
Should we just fix the decades-old levees or should we pretend that stronger waters are expected?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 24, 2019, 03:29:13 PM
Are you suggesting, "Let us pretend that climate change is real."?  "Just as a fanciful notion, let's humorously assume more intense rain events will be in our future.  On this basis, should the levees be stronger and taller or should we not build homes in flood plains any more or were the old levees just not maintained enough and can be repaired to original specifications?" [/sarc]
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on October 24, 2019, 03:38:51 PM
Lets hope this spurs them on to more action against global warming.

Why not just fix the decades-old levees?
Of course, easy peasy. & do it again in the 2020's, the 2040's.........

BUT

"Tsuchiya says there is no room for larger river embankments in the major cities. And significant portions of Nagoya, Osaka, and Tokyo have sunk below sea level, leaving them vulnerable not only to overflowing rivers, but also to storm surges."

Good article in the LA Times about the California Coast - retreat or fight the ocean's rise.

https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-me-sea-level-rise-california-coast/#nt=liF0promoSmall-3col1-7030col1
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: kassy on October 24, 2019, 03:55:50 PM
Why not just fix the decades-old levees?

The problem was not that the levees were bad or in need of repairs. They were filled up by the rainfall beyond historical norms. We know we will get more of this rainfall since atmospheric water vapour content goes up with temperature which goes up with added greenhouse gasses.

So fixing the levees is not a solution.

Japan which is a rich country now has a really clear example why they cannot live in lalaland wrt the carbon budget.

YMMV  ;)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 24, 2019, 04:18:07 PM
Are you suggesting, "Let us pretend that climate change is real."?  "Just as a fanciful notion, let's humorously assume more intense rain events will be in our future.  On this basis, should the levees be stronger and taller or should we not build homes in flood plains any more or were the old levees just not maintained enough and can be repaired to original specifications?" [/sarc]

Some in Japan have questioned the defenses against flooding from typhoons:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-questions-flooding-defenses-after-severe-weekend-typhoon-11571146223

Tadashi Yamada, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Chuo University in Tokyo, said that given the nation’s geography, flood control has been a challenge for governments as long as they have existed in Japan. After several deadly typhoons in the early post-World War II period killed more than 1,000 people, a national program to build up river banks began in the 1960s.

However, Prof. Yamada said cities like Tokyo got first priority. “When you go to rural areas, you see really thin river banks, which look really weak,” he said.

In the 1990s, corruption scandals involving construction companies briefly drove the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party from power. The backlash against big construction projects, plus concerns about paving over verdant river valleys with concrete barriers, led to a slowdown in flood prevention, Prof. Yamada said.

He and others said it was hard to draw a balance between preserving the beauty of the countryside, holding down costs and protecting against disasters that may hit a particular area only once in a century.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Archimid on October 24, 2019, 04:37:37 PM
A few months ago, during the record floods that delayed the planting season,  I saw a video where they interview an Army corps of engineering official in charge of the levees of some flooded place. When asked a similar question that I asked KkK, was he rebuilding at 20th century standards or was he preparing for the future, the coward said, "that is not my expertise". The guy designing the levees is so afraid of even talking about climate change that he is ignoring climate change in his calculation. People will die because of his cowardice induced dereliction of duty.

That KkK prefers to ignore the question is nothing. That decision-makers are also ignoring this question is the makes everything worse.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 24, 2019, 04:38:20 PM
Quote
... protecting against disasters that may hit a particular area only once in a century.
This comment is based on '20th century thinking' with a steady-state climate.  In many places, '100-year' floods will happen every 1 to 30 years, according to new flood maps (https://phys.org/news/2019-08-year-years.html)
Reza Marsooli et al, Climate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in spatially varying patterns (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-11755-z), Nature Communications (2019). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-11755-z
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on October 24, 2019, 05:00:11 PM
Medicane is forming in the Eastern Mediterranean. SST is about 26.5°C.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bluesky on October 24, 2019, 09:47:29 PM
It seems that some of the comments on my post in relation to the Sciencemag website article, forgot to read the post just before, e.g. the statistics of the number of river gauges and rainfall stations breaking their record, and the incredibly large area of Honshu receiving 35 to 40 per cent or yearly rainfall in 48 hours or less. This is an exceptional flood related typhoon with no historic equivalent. Catastrophe modellers like Air Worldwide usually have access to very large data regarding historic events, they know what they are talking about, insurance and reinsurance industry rely on them.
Additionally, Japan is the most well prepared country to face this kind of disaster...
So no, this is not simply a story of levees not maintained or built properly, maybe it played some part here and there but probably a marginal part when you face  this kind of incredible event. Hagibis event is in the same type of outlier / exceptional event as Harvey and Florence, although different, but it is very likely that incoming research paper on this typhoon will place it far at the extreme end of the tail of the exceedance probability curve, should we still be a the 20th century climatology but we are not...
Regarding  Tokyo and other large low lying area, the same typhoon with a landfall slightly more into Tokyo bay and at high tide could probably have had devastating effect due to higher and devastating  storm surge blocking any river flow into the sea... Remember the shutting down of Kansai airport /Osaka after Typhoon Jebi last year....

Typhoon Hagibis: as of October 20, 2019, 135 levees have been reported breached, according to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), affecting 78 rivers. Of the ~540 river gauging stations on Honshu island, more than 85 exceeded their 100-year return period peak flows, with more than 100 exceeding their historical records. A wide swath of Honshu just outside the Tokyo metro area received between 250 mm and 500+ mm (10 and 20+ inches) of rain; the resort town of Hakone, where 939.5 mm (37 inches) of precipitation was recorded, broke the calendar-day rainfall record for all of Japan. Hakone’s rainfall represents the second-heaviest 24-hour rainfall ever recorded in Japan—25 inches (635 mm) of the 37 inches fell in just 12 hours. Many regions received between 30% and 40% of their yearly rainfall in just two days, with more than 100 stations breaking daily rainfall records at those locations.

https://alert.air-worldwide.com/EventSummary.aspx?e=932&tp=72&c=1
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 25, 2019, 12:25:43 AM
To claim this has “no historical equivalent” is to deny history.  Typhoon Vera in 1959 resulted in greater flooding, causing more damage and loss of life.  That event was the impetus to the vast expanse of levees.  Japan is more prone to catastrophic flooding due to its sharply rising terrain and shallow river beds.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bluesky on October 25, 2019, 12:46:03 AM
To claim this has “no historical equivalent” is to deny history.  Typhoon Vera in 1959 resulted in greater flooding, causing more damage and loss of life.  That event was the impetus to the vast expanse of levees.  Japan is more prone to catastrophic flooding due to its sharply rising terrain and shallow river beds.

Again Air Worldwide is a reference in the catastrophe modelling, along with two other modelling agencies this is a top three world leader in catastrophe modelling that the insurance and reinsurance industry rely on. When Air Worldwide says "Please note that the level of rainfall and resultant flooding associated with Typhoon Hagibis is unprecedented, thus there is no analogous event in Japan’s recent history from which to draw insights on the cost associated with damage remediation and claiming behavior."
https://alert.air-worldwide.com/EventSummary.aspx?e=932&tp=72&c=1
It means that Air Worlwide has already made a scientific comparison with typhoon Vera, the reason why typhoon Vera lead to significantly higher loss of lives is simply because the warning devices are now signifcantly more developped and sophisticated than in 1959, when mobile phone did not exist and there was therefore no way to receive weather warning alert on your mobile phone on time as it happened for tens of millions of Japanese before and during typhoon Hagibis, let alone the weather forecasting devices which are far more sophisticated and allow to advise the population about the grade 1 to 5 level of warning. Japan has one of the most sophisticated catastrophe warning system in the world. By the way among the 80 or more people who died it was mostly eldderly  retired people some of them did not received the warning as they did not own a mobile phone or they did not follow the evacuation warning, Others were in areas were levees breaches generated extremely rapid flood water level limiting evacuation capacity, Finally the network of levees was far less extent and thorough in 1959.
 The fact that Japan is more prone to flooding does not explain the exceptionality of typhoon Hagibis, this is denying a scientific fact, Many River gauge and meteorological rain stations that experienced record level of river flow or rain already existed during typhoon Vera

The exceptionality of typhoon Hagibis will likely be confirmed by in depth research paper in the following wich will certainly be posted here on the Artic forum...


Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 25, 2019, 02:02:43 AM
Of course the much greater loss of life could be related to Vera being a stronger typhoon, with a barometric pressure of 895 compared to Hagibis at 915.  Hagibis has been downgraded to a category 2 storm at landfall, with winds of 155 mph, while Vera made landfall near full strength.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: oren on October 25, 2019, 02:16:51 AM
This is tiresome, bluesky talks about a scientifically exceptional rain event, which you continue to ignore with your ripostes. Will you mention ACE next?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on October 25, 2019, 07:12:52 AM
Typhoon Ida in 1958 produced up to 750 mm of rainfall.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bluesky on October 25, 2019, 08:03:03 AM
Typhoon Ida in 1958 produced up to 750 mm of rainfall.


Hagibis: " the resort town of Hakone, where 939.5 mm (37 inches) of precipitation was recorded, broke the calendar-day rainfall record for all of Japan"

already in one of my previous post

https://alert.air-worldwide.com/EventSummary.aspx?e=932&tp=72&c=1

Thank you Oren this is effectively slghtly tiresome...

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: nanning on October 25, 2019, 10:44:25 AM
Thank you bluesky for your interesting information and perseverance.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on October 25, 2019, 11:30:56 AM
Tropical Cyclone Kyarr unusually heading for Arabia.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 25, 2019, 02:27:31 PM
Typhoon Ida in 1958 produced up to 750 mm of rainfall.

Yes.  Another example that this event was not unprecedented.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Mozi on October 25, 2019, 02:30:37 PM
Right, breaking the old record by 190mm is somehow... precedented? That makes no sense by definition. What exactly is your deal here?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on October 25, 2019, 03:49:06 PM
20-25% is quite significant, though even 5% would be unprecedented. These rare events becomes stronger by much every time because they don't occur too often. It's hard to be prepared.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on October 25, 2019, 05:56:18 PM
And the IPCC says......

The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate
This Summary for Policymakers was formally approved at the Second Joint Session
of Working Groups I and II of the IPCC and accepted by the 51th Session of the IPCC,
Principality of Monaco, 24th September 2019
Summary for Policymakers
Quote
........
A3.6 Anthropogenic climate change has increased observed precipitation (medium confidence), winds (low confidence), and extreme sea level events (high confidence) associated with some tropical cyclones, which has increased intensity of multiple extreme events and associated cascading impacts (high confidence). Anthropogenic climate change may have contributed to a poleward migration of maximum tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific in recent decades related to anthropogenically-forced tropical expansion (low confidence). There is emerging evidence for an increase in annual global proportion of Category 4 or 5 tropical cyclones in recent decades (low confidence). ........
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Juan C. García on October 25, 2019, 08:16:10 PM
Stalled' hurricanes like Dorian could become more common
In a warming climate, hurricanes could linger longer, causing extreme rainfall and wind damage.
By Peter Sinclair
Monday, October 21, 2019
Quote
A CNN meteorologist characterizes Dorian with these words: “The thing just wobbles and wobbles and wobbles and just doesn’t go anywhere.”

“Perhaps the term ‘catastrophic’ may fall short for the amount of destruction created over the Bahamas” as a result of the “slow down and stall,” says Ángel F. Adames-Corraliza of the University of Michigan.

Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli citing not only Dorian but also the 2017 Category 4 Hurricane Harvey that pummeled parts of Texas, said researchers recently are pointing to evidence that hurricanes “may be slowing down” in their movements from place to place. Berardelli also explains at one point how the “damage potential” from a 150-mile per hour hurricane is 250 times – not simply two times – that from a 75-mile-per-hour hurricane. “The multiplier is incredible.”

Masters points to three Category 4 storms land-falling in the U.S. in just two straight years, with only 28 previously having done so going back to 1851.
Yale Climate Connections, text & video included:
https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/10/stalled-hurricanes-like-dorian-could-become-more-common/ (https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/10/stalled-hurricanes-like-dorian-could-become-more-common/)

Only video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5RkjYjyVC8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5RkjYjyVC8)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bluesky on October 25, 2019, 11:06:33 PM
cyclone Kyarr has just intensified into a "severe cyclone" according to the Indian Meteorological Department and is likely to intensify further into a very severe cyclone  during next 6 hours  and further intensify into and extremely severe cyclone during the next 24 hours and move NNW towards Oman

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en


1.tropical cyclone scale in North Indian Ocean
2. Kyarr forecast
3. Kyarr forecast track and intensity

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 26, 2019, 01:58:41 AM
Stalled' hurricanes like Dorian could become more common
In a warming climate, hurricanes could linger longer, causing extreme rainfall and wind damage.
By Peter Sinclair
Monday, October 21, 2019
Quote
A CNN meteorologist characterizes Dorian with these words: “The thing just wobbles and wobbles and wobbles and just doesn’t go anywhere.”

“Perhaps the term ‘catastrophic’ may fall short for the amount of destruction created over the Bahamas” as a result of the “slow down and stall,” says Ángel F. Adames-Corraliza of the University of Michigan.

Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli citing not only Dorian but also the 2017 Category 4 Hurricane Harvey that pummeled parts of Texas, said researchers recently are pointing to evidence that hurricanes “may be slowing down” in their movements from place to place. Berardelli also explains at one point how the “damage potential” from a 150-mile per hour hurricane is 250 times – not simply two times – that from a 75-mile-per-hour hurricane. “The multiplier is incredible.”

Masters points to three Category 4 storms land-falling in the U.S. in just two straight years, with only 28 previously having done so going back to 1851.
Yale Climate Connections, text & video included:
https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/10/stalled-hurricanes-like-dorian-could-become-more-common/ (https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/10/stalled-hurricanes-like-dorian-could-become-more-common/)

Only video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5RkjYjyVC8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5RkjYjyVC8)

Yes, there is evidence that tropical cyclones are slowing down.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/insideclimatenews.org/news/03092019/hurricane-dorian-climate-change-stall-record-wind-speed-rainfall-intensity-global-warming-bahamas%3famp
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on October 26, 2019, 09:41:10 PM
Kyarr (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#04A) is intensifying.
Quote
As of 18:00 UTC Oct 26, 2019:

Location: 16.8°N 68.9°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 mb
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on October 27, 2019, 07:27:07 AM
Super cyclonic storm Kyarr this morning. More (http://satellite.imd.gov.in/insat.htm) images.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 27, 2019, 08:32:41 PM
Quote
Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) 10/27/19, 10:54 AM
#Pablo is now a #hurricane. It became a hurricane at 18.3°W - the farthest east an Atlantic named storm has first become a hurricane on record - breaking the old record set by Vince in 2005 (18.9°W).
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1188468933969334272
Satellite gif at the link.
< It’s well north of 40°! I feel like that is incredibly rare. Such a peculiar season.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: kassy on October 28, 2019, 12:23:49 AM
Interesting.

this has a picture of where it formed:
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2019-10-27-hurricane-pablo-weird-atlantic-formation-location

From that link.

Pablo became a hurricane despite sea-surface temperatures being much cooler than what is typically required for a hurricane to form. That negative development factor was offset by a favorable atmospheric environment.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1188472238858747904

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bluesky on October 28, 2019, 12:43:11 AM
Kyarr is the first super cyclone in Arabian sea since Gonu in 2007.
Latest path forecast on
www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/ftrack.png
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: oren on October 28, 2019, 01:56:34 AM
For those like me who are unfamiliar with the N Indian Ocean terminology, a Super Cyclonic Storm is Cat5 or high Cat4.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone#Intensity_classifications (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone#Intensity_classifications)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on October 28, 2019, 07:57:50 AM
Current North Indian Ocean season is already the most active.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on October 29, 2019, 11:54:49 PM
Why Are Big Storms Bringing So Much More Rain? Warming, Yes, But Also Winds
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-big-storms.html

For three hurricane seasons in a row, storms with record-breaking rainfall have caused catastrophic flooding in the southern United States: Harvey in 2017, Florence in 2018 and Imelda in 2019.

A new analysis by Princeton researchers explains why this trend is likely to continue with global warming. Both the higher moisture content of warmer air and storms' increasing wind speeds conspire to produce wetter storms, the researchers reported in a study published on October 18 in the Nature Partner Journal Climate and Atmospheric Science.

Models project that by the end of the century hurricane rainfall rates will increase up to twice as fast as would be expected due to increasing moisture from rising sea surface temperatures alone. The Princeton team wanted to understand what other forces might contribute to the wetter storms.

... The researchers suspected that wind might play a role.

... "We found that not only did a storm's holding capacity for water vapor increase because of global warming," said Liu, "but also that the storms were getting stronger and contributing to higher rainfall rates."

Vecchi noted that several studies have shown the current probability of a storm like Hurricane Harvey is twice as high because of global warming. "This study makes a statement about the future," he said. "But we're having this convergence, where our observations are starting to show the increased rainfall that our models have been predicting for quite a while, and now we also have a clear theoretical understanding as to why it should be happening."

(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/89/c6/16/89c6167fe0eb31addb1f117d7f4e4fc7.jpg)

Open Access: Maofeng Liu et al, Causes of large projected increases in hurricane precipitation rates with global warming (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-019-0095-3), npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2019)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 30, 2019, 02:29:06 AM
The intense rainfall begs the question of whether warmer waters are leading to enhanced total rainfall or  just locally higher totals due to slower traveling storms.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Mozi on October 30, 2019, 03:16:20 AM
No, the article seems to answer that quite explicitly.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on October 30, 2019, 06:39:17 AM
Activity in the North Indian is close to near-normal Atlantic season.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 30, 2019, 02:05:18 PM
No, the article seems to answer that quite explicitly.

As opposed to the following research, which states, "the significant increases in TC stalling frequency and high potential for associated increases in rainfall have very likely exacerbated TC hazards for coastal populations."

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-019-0074-8
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on November 04, 2019, 08:20:28 AM
Insane season continues in the North Indian Ocean. Maha becomes the third extremely severe cyclonic storm (cat 3-4) of the season. ACE surpassed 70. Remnants of Matmo entered the Andaman Sea.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bluesky on November 05, 2019, 12:05:00 AM
"As expected, Tropical cyclone Maha continued strengthening since yesterday and has been upgraded into a Category 3 cyclone today at 12 UTC (November 4). Maha is packing maximum sustained winds of 105 knots / 120 mph / 195 km/h with a central pressure around 960 mbar. It is likely very near its peak strength as is soon coming into less favorable sea surface conditions and also the wind shear will increase after it turns sharp east tonight which usually results in the weakening trend of tropical systems. Maha continues towards landfall in India – expected on Thursday, Nov 7th as a Tropical Storm force."

https://www.severe-weather.eu/tropical-weather/category-3-cyclone-maha-heads-towards-india-mk/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bluesky on November 05, 2019, 12:10:03 AM
"Very favorable western Pacific sea surface conditions are allowing a now Category 3 typhoon Halong to remain in its rapid intensification trend today, clearly visible on the latest satellite imagery and automatic analysis. Halong is packing winds of 105 knots / 120 mph / 195 km/h with a central pressure below 950 mbar. Although it will stay over open waters of the western Pacific and away from any land areas, it is very impressive to observe."
https://www.severe-weather.eu/tropical-weather/typhoon-halong-will-reach-category4-mk/

Latest JMA forecast on typhoon Halong:
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: grixm on November 05, 2019, 07:20:57 PM
Ridiculous intensification of Halong today. While JTWC only has it at 140 knots in the last advisory, AdjT and CI# numbers has reached almost 8.0, suggesting 170 knots is possible.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1191740646022881281
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on November 05, 2019, 11:55:36 PM
897 mb / 155 kt. Halong looks impressive.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 07, 2019, 04:50:35 PM
Climate Signals | 2019 North Indian Ocean cyclone season breaks named storm days record
Quote
Tropical Cyclone "Maha" formed on October 30. It strengthened into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm on November 3 and into Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm on November 4.

On November 3, Maha reached Category 3+ hurricane equivalent, the third of the season to date, tying the year with 1999 for the most North Indian Ocean major hurricane through November 3 since records began in 1972, according to meteorologist Philip Klotzbach.

As of November 4, the 2019 North Indian Ocean has already generated 28 named storm days, shattering the old record of 21 days through November 4 set in 1996, Klotzbach said.

The season has so far had 5 Severe Cyclonic Storms, a record high, and 2 Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storms. It had 1 Super Cyclonic Storm, also a record high, but tied with 1989, 1990, 1991, 1999 and 2007.
https://www.climatesignals.org/headlines/2019-north-indian-ocean-cyclone-season-breaks-named-storm-days-record
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 07, 2019, 07:32:45 PM
Yes, the North Indian has had its most active tropical season on record.  The North Atlantic has been somewhat above average also.  Those combiend with below average activity in the Pacific basin has resulted in a near average 2019 tropical season. 

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Aluminium on November 07, 2019, 09:44:34 PM
The North Indian season usually have a peak in November. Bulbul became the sixth Severe Cyclonic Storm.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bluesky on November 07, 2019, 11:47:05 PM
talking about intensification, as a reminder, this article published last February in Nature Communication about a highly unusual increase in intensification rate of tropical storm in Atlantic bassin versus natural variability:

Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates
Kieran T. Bhatia  February 2019
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08471-z


Abstract
"Tropical cyclones that rapidly intensify are typically associated with the highest forecast errors and cause a disproportionate amount of human and financial losses. Therefore, it is crucial to understand if, and why, there are observed upward trends in tropical cyclone intensification rates. Here, we utilize two observational datasets to calculate 24-hour wind speed changes over the period 1982–2009. We compare the observed trends to natural variability in bias-corrected, high-resolution, global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of tropical cyclone intensification. Both observed datasets show significant increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates in the Atlantic basin that are highly unusual compared to model-based estimates of internal climate variations. Our results suggest a detectable increase of Atlantic intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing and reveal a need for more reliable data before detecting a robust trend at the global scale."

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on November 08, 2019, 12:02:13 AM
The North Indian season usually have a peak in November. Bulbul became the sixth Severe Cyclonic Storm.
The coast from Odisha to Bengal is just a series of deltas - extremely low-lying for a good many miles inland and so extremely vulnerable, and already suffering from severe coastal erosion. For those in the USA think - Louisiana Boot (what's left of it).

There is going to be some damage.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bluesky on November 08, 2019, 12:36:54 AM
latest track, it seems that Bulbul will make landfall on the West part of very low lying Bengladesh coast, likely to bear the highest brunt of the storm surge, depending on the tide, as on the right side of the cyclone (were the wind will be the strongest) the curving close to the coast could mean prolonged wind damage and storm surge. Fortunately Bengladesh has improved its warning system and sheltering during the past 15 years.
If I remember well the west part of Bangladesh coast is partly protected by a mangrove forest (hopefully it has not been too much deforested?) , a good natural barrier for attenuating storm surge impact... and the cyclone should have weakened somewhat (but intensity forecast could change)

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bluesky on November 09, 2019, 01:12:21 AM
Latest Bulbul forecast, intensity near landfall upgraded to very severe cyclone , storm surge for Western coast of Bangladesh of 1.5 to 2.5 meters extending up to 2 to 3km inland. (Source: Indian meteorological department)

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: blumenkraft on November 09, 2019, 08:03:07 AM
OMG  :-[
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on November 09, 2019, 05:05:00 PM
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Matmo) Warning #17
Issued at 09/1500Z

Not a very strong cyclone, as regards wind, but hitting such a vulnerable area already degrading very fast.. Most homes there are made from dried mud bricks.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2019/07/sundarbans-mangrove-forest-in-bangladesh-india-threatened-by-rising-waters-illegal-logging/
This vanishing forest protects the coasts—and lives—of two countries
Rising waters and illicit logging are killing the trees in the Sundarbans, the natural wall that protects the India-Bangladesh coast.

Quote
Lost Protection
The Sundarbans spans nearly 4,000 square miles of India and Bangladesh along the Bay of Bengal. The world’s largest continuous mangrove forest, it’s home to a wide variety of species. For the 7.5 million people who live in the region, the forest is a natural barrier against tides and cyclones. But as people cut the trees and rising seas bring saline waters, the forest and the land itself are shrinking. More than a million coastal residents have already migrated north.

https://news.mongabay.com/2019/10/sundarbans-climate-change-tigers-india/
Quote
The sea level has risen by an average of 3 centimeters a year over the past two decades in the Sundarbans, the vast mangrove delta at the mouth of the Bay of Bengal, leading to one of the fastest rates of coastal erosion in the world.

Residents of the dozens of islands in the Indian part of the Sundarbans have seen their homes swallowed up by the sea and their farmland poisoned by saltwater, forcing many to relocate.

The fast-encroaching sea, driven by climate change, has also eaten away at the hunting grounds of the Sundarbans’ famous Bengal tigers, pushing them to target the villagers’ livestock — and, increasingly, the villagers themselves.

At the same time, villagers unable to farm and experiencing dwindling fish catches are venturing deeper into tiger territory to look for crabs and collect honey, putting them at even greater risk of being attacked by the big cats.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 11, 2019, 12:55:04 AM
NOAA NWS Ocean Prediction Center

“Low pressure rapidly intensified to the south of Greenland yesterday and overnight (November 9 into November 10), becoming the 8th #hurricane force wind event across the N Atlantic basin in the current OPC cold season (2019 Jun to 2020 May). The first image contains a satellite view of the low pressure via GOES East air mass RGB. In the second image, overnight ASCAT passes provided 'sea truth' to the ongoing forecast with a large area of hurricane force winds southwest of the low center (the brightest reds). The third image is from 12Z today(November 10), and shows the significant wave heights that have developed in response to the winds, with max seas to 16 meters (52.5 feet). #SatWind #MarineWx”
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on November 11, 2019, 10:12:14 PM
Hurricanes Have Become Bigger and More Destructive for the U.S., Study Finds
https://phys.org/news/2019-11-hurricanes-bigger-destructive.html

A new study by researchers at the Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Aslak Grinsted, Peter Ditlevsen and Jens Hesselbjerg shows that hurricanes have become more destructive since 1900, and the worst of them are more than three times as frequent now than 100 years ago.

A new way of calculating the destruction, compensating for the societal change in wealth, unequivocally shows a climatic increase in the frequency of the most destructive hurricanes that routinely raise havoc on the North American southern and east coasts.
The study is now published in PNAS.

... Instead of comparing single hurricanes and the damage they would cause today, he and his colleagues have assessed how big an area could be viewed as an "area of total destruction," meaning how large an area a storm would have to destroy completely in order to account for the financial loss. Simultaneously, this makes comparison between rural areas and more densely populated areas like cities easier, as the unit of calculation is now the same: the size of the "area of total destruction."

(https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/2019/2-hurricanesha.jpg)

Aslak Grinsted el al., "Normalized US hurricane damage estimates using area of total destruction, 1900−2018," (https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/11/05/1912277116) PNAS (2019).
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bluesky on November 12, 2019, 12:27:30 AM
It seems that significantly larger area of destruction in the 2000es and 2010ies is not really due to the positive switch of the Atlantic Multidecal Oscillation since the mid 1990ies, contrary to the fairly common belief even in some research papers.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: bluesky on November 13, 2019, 12:09:14 AM
Hurricanes Have Become Bigger and More Destructive for the U.S., Study Finds
https://phys.org/news/2019-11-hurricanes-bigger-destructive.html

A new study by researchers at the Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Aslak Grinsted, Peter Ditlevsen and Jens Hesselbjerg shows that hurricanes have become more destructive since 1900, and the worst of them are more than three times as frequent now than 100 years ago.

Aslak Grinsted el al., "Normalized US hurricane damage estimates using area of total destruction, 1900−2018," (https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/11/05/1912277116) PNAS (2019).


the Insurance Link Security blog artemis.bm has written a long article about the Aslak Grinsted, Peter Ditlevsen and Jens Hesselbjerg  (Niels Bohr Institute) research paper on increasing frequency of more destructive hurricane published recently in PNAS. A few more insight, (of course the most important is the frequency of the most destructive hurricane has increased by 330% in a century),  the article was edited by the highly respected hurricane scientist expert   Kerry A. Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, while the research paper received the backing of  Jim Kossin (NOAA), who was not involved in the research, as commenting on this study, “Their result is consistent with expected changes in the proportion of the strongest hurricanes and is also consistent with the increased frequency of very slow-moving storms that make landfall in the U.S.”

The artemis.bm blog is widely read in the re insurance and insurance industry, which will help to rapidly spread the result of this key research paper among the catastrophe modellers and the modelling agencies on which rely the insurance industry, and maybe less relying on the mantra of  of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in positive mode since the mid 1990ies supposedly justifying (for some not all) the higher  activity of intense hurricane since then.

https://www.artemis.bm/news/study-finds-hurricanes-more-destructive-most-damaging-more-frequent/

The chart below shows the frequency of events destroying a certain amount of land-mass, the area of total destruction (ATD). The white represents the most severe hurricanes and shows a 3.3x increase in frequency (from the artemis article , and likely from A. Grinsted et al research paper)


Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on November 13, 2019, 12:22:10 AM
Thanks bluesky.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 16, 2019, 07:15:38 PM
Hurricane Dorian caused $3.4 billion damages to the Bahamas
Quote
The amount, which puts the Bahamas on a difficult path to reconstruction, is equivalent to one-fourth of the country’s gross domestic product. That’s equivalent to the United States losing the combined economies of Florida, California and Texas.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/article237435814.html