Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Consequences => Topic started by: Sigmetnow on February 21, 2019, 08:15:59 PM

Title: Drought 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 21, 2019, 08:15:59 PM
“We’ve decoupled growth from water.  We use the same amount of water that we did 20 years ago, but have added 400,000 more people.” In 2000, some 80 percent of Phoenix had lush green lawns; now only 14 percent does. The city has done this by charging more for water in the summer. Per capita usage has declined 30 percent over the last 20 years. “That’s a huge culture change.”

In Era of Drought, Phoenix, Arizona Prepares for a Future Without Colorado River Water
https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-phoenix-is-preparing-for-a-future-without-colorado-river-water
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: rboyd on February 28, 2019, 09:25:30 PM
Next on the list should be those very green golf courses around Phoenix.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on February 28, 2019, 10:05:31 PM
What do you expect when you build in a desert?
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on March 15, 2019, 02:28:58 PM
Millions Hit in Manila's 'Worst' Water Shortage   
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-millions-manila-worst-shortage.html

Manila has been hit by its worst water shortage in years

Taps are dry from four to 20 hours per day in the homes of about half of the Philippine capital's roughly 12 million people due to rolling outages driven by a dearth of rain and inadequate infrastructure.

The shortages started hitting late last week, with some areas in eastern Manila seeing the supplies of water into their homes being completely cut off.

... The disruption could last until July when monsoon rains are typically in full swing and would replenish regional reservoirs, one of which is at a two-decade low.

.. The government has admitted that the problem of growing demand for water has long been forecast but they failed to address it due to delays in projects that would expand capacity.

-------------------------------

Philippine Water Shortage Forces Cuts for 6.8 Million People
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/philippine-water-shortage-forces-cuts-for-68-million-people/2019/03/14/e3734b34-46bb-11e9-94ab-d2dda3c0df52_story.html

... Water supplies will be cut for at least six hours a day for more than a million households until the rainy season fills dams and reservoirs in May or June, a spokesman for Manila Water Co. Inc., Jeric Sevilla, said Thursday.

The company, one of two government-authorized water suppliers in the densely populated Manila metropolis and nearby Rizal province, said a spike in demand and reduced water levels in a dam and smaller reservoirs in the sweltering summer are the culprit, exacerbated by El Nino weather conditions.

A company advisory said residents in more than a dozen cities and towns would lose their water supply from six to 21 hours a day through the summer months and appealed for public understanding.

... “El Nino is not really the culprit,” Sevilla said. “It’s actually supply and demand.”

-------------------------------

The US Is Only Decades Away From Widespread Water Shortages, Scientists Warn
https://www.sciencealert.com/the-us-is-only-decades-away-from-widespread-water-shortages-scientists-warn

Much of the United States could be gripped by significant water shortages in just five decades' time, according to predictions made in a new study.

From the year 2071 on, scientists say the combined effects of climate change and population increases are projected to present "serious challenges" in close to half of the 204 watersheds covering the contiguous US.

Open Access: Brown, Thomas, et.al., Adaptation to Future Water Shortages in the United States Caused by Population Growth and Climate Change (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018EF001091)
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 27, 2019, 09:21:27 PM
Quote
MacGyver (@MacGyver_BE) 4/25/19, 3:29 PM
It's April and we're already instructed to conserve water. In Belgium. Crazy.
Water levels haven't recovered from the record drought last year.

https://twitter.com/macgyver_be/status/1121496587983781888
The fact we're even instructed to conserve water is rare. But now in April...

Quote
Johan Andersson (@johaan) 4/25/19, 4:18 PM
Same here in Sweden. We haven´t had rain for 3-4 weeks which is highly unusual and worrying.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on April 28, 2019, 12:13:09 AM
Interesting.  Here in the U.S., drought is the lowest since measurements began.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Sleepy on April 28, 2019, 09:04:10 AM
Thought everyone was aware of the drought last year in Europe and Sweden. Unprecedented in some of our southern parts with huge impacts on farming. Some farmers had to slaugther animals as well.

April has been much the same so far, rain forecasts dry out, the same today. Just a tiny bit last night and nothing today. Adding a recent reply, (in response to planting trees) it's a cherry pick but it certainly is dry here. Groundwater levels are falling and with last year in fresh memory, I do hope we get some rain soon. A recent study showed that our crop production would be cut in half with further droughts.
Start here? Crappy photo taken yesterday passing a huge crop field.

Hmm, on a second thought that would be a bad idea. We can only feed half of our population here, the rest is imported.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=143.0;attach=119198;image)

Adding daily precipitation for April below. No need to make it larger, there's not much to see...
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Pmt111500 on April 28, 2019, 09:37:06 AM
Thought everyone was aware of the drought last year in Europe and Sweden. Unprecedented in some of our southern parts with huge impacts on farming. Some farmers had to slaugther animals as well.

April has been much the same so far, rain forecasts dry out, the same today. Just a tiny bit last night and nothing today. Adding a recent reply, (in response to planting trees) it's a cherry pick but it certainly is dry here. Groundwater levels are falling and with last year in fresh memory, I do hope we get some rain soon. A recent study showed that our crop production would be cut in half with further droughts.

<><> Clip <><>

Adding daily precipitation for April below. No need to make it larger, there's not much to see...
As happened here on the other side of Baltic. Too hot later in summer 2018 so some livestock had to be slaughtered prematurely.
This is looking like a pattern emerging. If it goes on for several more years it might force the farmers to wait for rains to sow the fields. This could of course be changed with the general change in the Arctic. I'd rather have cold fronts from Kara and Barents to hit moist warm airs from eastern Atlantic or Black Sea than the heat of last July/beginning of August. Seriously considered letting the grass on yard die. Most here agree, but they also agree on combustion engine powered long-range mobility enhancers, so I don't know what the people here want. Mainly hunkering down with these anomalies
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Sleepy on April 28, 2019, 10:12:12 AM
Warmer wetter winters and warmer drier summers, might very well be a pattern Pmt.
Reminded me of this one:
https://www.clim-past.net/10/1925/2014/cp-10-1925-2014.pdf (https://www.clim-past.net/10/1925/2014/cp-10-1925-2014.pdf)
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: El Cid on April 28, 2019, 10:35:10 AM
Yes, I also quoted that article on some other threads. I believe that it is a likely outcome for N.Europe: much warmer all year, and little rain during summer. Mediterranization...

(hint: grow figs :)
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Pmt111500 on April 28, 2019, 10:46:28 AM
Yes, I also quoted that article on some other threads. I believe that it is a likely outcome for N.Europe: much warmer all year, and little rain during summer. Mediterranization...

(hint: grow figs :)
Thank you Cid for the hint, I do have some aloes on the windowsill, but I don't think they'll manage the winters yet outside. Considering  recommending peach-trees and central europe pear cultivars for people with better local conditions than mine...
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Sleepy on April 28, 2019, 10:58:08 AM
Walpurgis night here in two days, let's see how that goes first. A night of song and fire...
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on April 28, 2019, 01:22:07 PM
And Mumbai is not even 1 of the 21 big indian cities that will run out of groundwater next year. https://m.mid-day.com/articles/mumbais-water-stock-lowest-in-three-years/20755190
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: El Cid on April 28, 2019, 01:45:07 PM
Yes, I also quoted that article on some other threads. I believe that it is a likely outcome for N.Europe: much warmer all year, and little rain during summer. Mediterranization...

(hint: grow figs :)
Thank you Cid for the hint, I do have some aloes on the windowsill, but I don't think they'll manage the winters yet outside. Considering  recommending peach-trees and central europe pear cultivars for people with better local conditions than mine...

Actually, I am from C.Europe and as temperatures have risen 1,5-2 C in the past 30-40 yrs, people have started to grow figs, kiwis, persimmons with success. With some winter protection these are now totally viable here on warmer S-facing hillsides.

As for pears, we have some old cultivars that grew well in the Middle Ages (Little Ice Age), and I am sure those should be OK up north as well. Peaches: If your winter temps don't go below 20-22C, they survive quite well. The real problems come during springtime, because these flower quite early and late frosts can and do kill the fruits/flowers time and again even here...same for apricots.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on April 28, 2019, 02:47:04 PM
Yes, I also quoted that article on some other threads. I believe that it is a likely outcome for N.Europe: much warmer all year, and little rain during summer. Mediterranization...

(hint: grow figs :)
Thank you Cid for the hint, I do have some aloes on the windowsill, but I don't think they'll manage the winters yet outside. Considering  recommending peach-trees and central europe pear cultivars for people with better local conditions than mine...

Actually, I am from C.Europe and as temperatures have risen 1,5-2 C in the past 30-40 yrs, people have started to grow figs, kiwis, persimmons with success. With some winter protection these are now totally viable here on warmer S-facing hillsides.

As for pears, we have some old cultivars that grew well in the Middle Ages (Little Ice Age), and I am sure those should be OK up north as well. Peaches: If your winter temps don't go below 20-22C, they survive quite well. The real problems come during springtime, because these flower quite early and late frosts can and do kill the fruits/flowers time and again even here...same for apricots.

The warmer winters, especially when combined with longer frost-free days, will allow for the expansion of growing these and other foods.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Pmt111500 on April 28, 2019, 04:33:13 PM
<cut>

As for pears, we have some old cultivars that grew well in the Middle Ages (Little Ice Age), and I am sure those should be OK up north as well. Peaches: If your winter temps don't go below 20-22C, they survive quite well. The real problems come during springtime, because these flower quite early and late frosts can and do kill the fruits/flowers time and again even here...same for apricots.

Thanks again, we do have at least one cultivar of pear that can manage on sheltered locations in the south. Peaches and apricots might then start to manage on the Baltic islands sheltered. People with big porches are growing some in pots, taking them in for the coldest months. Cherries are nowadays spreading northwards on the mainland. But this is OT. Could use some rain here.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Archimid on April 28, 2019, 04:48:28 PM
 If the environment is more favorable for some southern products, is the environment more unfavorable for the crops that have been optimized for centuries?

Can the fellows down south growth the same crops with the same effectiveness?
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Pmt111500 on April 29, 2019, 10:44:09 AM
If the environment is more favorable for some southern products, is the environment more unfavorable for the crops that have been optimized for centuries?

Can the fellows down south growth the same crops with the same effectiveness?
That's a good question, last year was one of the first years of poorer yield by drought in Finland, but I've not heard of other special troubles for the northernmost cultivars.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on April 29, 2019, 02:36:31 PM
If the environment is more favorable for some southern products, is the environment more unfavorable for the crops that have been optimized for centuries?

Can the fellows down south growth the same crops with the same effectiveness?
That's a good question, last year was one of the first years of poorer yield by drought in Finland, but I've not heard of other special troubles for the northernmost cultivars.

Currently, the answer is yes.  Southern areas have been less affected by climate change than the northern ones.  As long as summer temperatures and precipitation remain in the same general range, this will be the case.  Any significant changes may affect the effectiveness.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: El Cid on April 29, 2019, 03:34:05 PM
I think the major question is the distribution of the rains. Temperature growth in itself does not mean problems, on the contrary, cold places becoming warmer can produce more. we also know, that global warming brings more rains.

However, the distribution of those (future) rains is not very well understood as I see it (models do not replicate neither European nor N.African precipitation patterns even for the Holocene Optimum!). Problems will arise when precipitation patterns change, eg. instead of previously evenly distributed rains a dry/wet season climate arrives. It is essential to prepare for that first by saving water and second by increasing irrigation infrastructure. Even so, disruptions will emerge for sure as change is always hard.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on April 29, 2019, 03:59:51 PM
I think the major question is the distribution of the rains. Temperature growth in itself does not mean problems, on the contrary, cold places becoming warmer can produce more. we also know, that global warming brings more rains.

However, the distribution of those (future) rains is not very well understood as I see it (models do not replicate neither European nor N.African precipitation patterns even for the Holocene Optimum!). Problems will arise when precipitation patterns change, eg. instead of previously evenly distributed rains a dry/wet season climate arrives. It is essential to prepare for that first by saving water and second by increasing irrigation infrastructure. Even so, disruptions will emerge for sure as change is always hard.

I would agree that the rains are a bigger issue than temperature.  Temperature is really only an issue when it exceeds either a maximum or minimum growth limit. 
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Tor Bejnar on April 29, 2019, 06:05:26 PM
I've seen several maps showing the future boding ill for the Mediterranean Sea area, temperature-wise.  I cannot imagine this will be anything but disastrous for agriculture in the region.  I do not recall 'timing' of these changes, however, a quick internet search reveals this 2019 paper (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331260436_Future_evolution_of_Marine_Heatwaves_in_the_Mediterranean_Sea), although the abstract appears to focus on how absolutely horrible things will get under a RCP8.5 scenario.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on June 02, 2019, 03:14:01 PM
Chennai's Population: 11,133,854 

(https://www.worldatlas.com/img/locator/city/049/10049-chennai-locator-map.jpg)
-----------------------

Chennai's Largest Source Of Drinking Water Dries Up, Residents Hit Hard   
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ndtv.com/chennai-news/chennais-largest-source-of-drinking-water-dries-up-residents-hit-hard-2045155%3famp=1&akamai-rum=off

Chennai: Chennai's largest source of drinking water, Chembarambakkam lake, is bone dry with parched and cracked bed all over. The 3,500 million cubic feet capacity reservoir is left just with storage of silt and slush in the middle largely due to deficit monsoon last year. It was this very lake that overflowed and flooded Chennai in December 2015.

Chennai Metro Water, which supplies drinking water, has cut piped supply by 40 per cent.

Quote
... "Before elections we were getting water regularly. Now we don't get regular supply. We get water just for one hour and half the time it's like toilet water. Tankers come only around 10 or 11 am. It's so difficult."

-----------------

Drought-Hit Chennai Has 1.3% of Water in Its Reservoirs, One of the Lowest in 70 yrs 
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thenewsminute.com/article/drought-hit-chennai-has-13-water-its-reservoirs-one-lowest-70-yrs-102038%3famp

... According to data from the Chennai Metropolitan Water Supply and Sewerage Board (CMWSSB), as of Sunday, Chembarambakkam Lake has only 1mcft of water compared to its capacity of 3645 mcft, Redhills has 28 mcft compared to 3300 mcft of storage, Poondi contains 118 mcft of water as opposed to its storage of 3231 mcft and Cholavaram has 4 mcft compared to a total capacity of 1081 mcft.

... Chennai had received only 390 mm of rainfall in 2018 as against the normal of 850mm during the Northeast monsoon, when it gets a bulk of its annual rainfall.

 "At this rate these four reservoirs will be empty by July.


Chennai is already battling an acute water crisis despite CMWSSB rationing supplies from January. From the total daily supply of about 880 million litres a day, it has been brought down to 550 million litres a day. On May 15, CMWSSB stopped drawing water from the Redhills lake, which supplies the city 90 million litres-120 million litres a day.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 02, 2019, 04:36:33 PM
A human being can survive at most a week without water. If Chennai were to run out of water entirely, large portions of the population would die quickly unless sufficient water was transported to meet minimum requirements or if the population was transported to where water supplies still existed.

The minimum requirement for daily water intake is 3 liters per day. Supporting the population of Chennai would require transporting, at a minimum, 33 million liters of water daily. The largest tanker trucks can hold 44K liters, about 800 tanker truck deliveries per day. Not an impossible task but a logistical nightmare.

There will come a point in time in the not too distant future when we will have an incident in a major urban area where hundreds of thousands of people die of thirst. This will occur in a 3rd world nation or in an underdeveloped region in a developing nation. The western world will blame it on the misuse of water and go about their BAU.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: gerontocrat on June 02, 2019, 05:48:54 PM
The minimum requirement for daily water intake is 3 liters per day.
A long time ago when I did a few water projects we reckoned an absolute minimum of 15 liters per capita per day for the very poorest of the poor to keep the soul attached to the body.

This was for
- drinking,
- cooking,
- personal hygiene (washing one's body and clothes occasionally)
- keeping the dust down on the dirt or concrete floor.

25 to 30 liters per day would be better, but depended on how far to walk to the standpipe or tankers (which can't get into the alleyways of the katchi abadis / barrios / favelas). Water is heavy to carry.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 02, 2019, 06:36:58 PM
The minimum requirement for daily water intake is 3 liters per day.
[/quote
A long time ago when I did a few water projects we reckoned an absolute minimum of 15 liters per capita per day for the very poorest of the poor to keep the soul attached to the body.

This was for
- drinking,
- cooking,
- personal hygiene (washing one's body and clothes occasionally)
- keeping the dust down on the dirt or concrete floor.

25 to 30 liters per day would be better, but depended on how far to walk to the standpipe or tankers (which can't get into the alleyways of the katchi abadis / barrios / favelas). Water is heavy to carry.

Of course your number is more accurate but 3.2 liters was the number I found for staying alive while remaining completely at rest.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on June 02, 2019, 07:57:31 PM
What would be the result of that, in the long run ? Because many of these countries that have water troubles, are big water exporters. India is one of the biggest water exporters in the world. And we import it, like rice, coffee ,cotton.... It takes like 140 liters of water for 1 cup of coffee, or a few 1000 liters for a t-shirt.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 12, 2019, 05:48:58 PM
Indian villages abandoned in drought:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/12/indian-villages-lie-empty-as-drought-forces-thousands-to-flee
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on June 13, 2019, 01:27:14 PM
And further south it's not much better. I think one more bad monsoon and things run out of control. All moving in to these already heavely populated cities. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bengaluru/crisis-in-full-flow-1900-villages-rely-on-tankers-in-karnataka/articleshow/69763924.cms
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on June 13, 2019, 01:32:32 PM
Cyclone Vayu sucking up al moisture, delay in monsoon. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/hyderabad/t-monsoon-wait-gets-longer-imd-issues-fresh-heatwave-alert-for-state/articleshow/69763332.cms
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 18, 2019, 01:32:41 PM
Canada

‘That water is going to be gone later in the summer,’ says Dave Campbell of the River Forecast Centre

B.C. drought fears surge as rivers dry up across the province
Quote
Extreme hot dry weather has left streams and rivers across the province running low and that's creating drought conditions more commonly seen in late July.

On June 12, temperature records for many places in B.C. were broken — with highs not seen in some spots in a century. Provincial drought monitors say this kind of weather is leaving many waterways at record-low flows, fuelling fears over everything from fire risks to salmon survival.
...
Campbell says this is the fifth year of a pattern of drought that used to be something seen every 10 or 20 years. ...
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/drought-bc-rivers-creeks-running-low-summer-heat-in-spring-temperature-records-1.5174220
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on June 20, 2019, 09:42:37 PM
India is Running Out of Water, Fast
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/06/india-running-water-fast-190620085139572.html

The city of Chennai in Tamil Nadu state is now virtually out of water, while it has been hitting temperatures over 41C for nine of the last 10 days; on June 10, it was 43C. The average for June in the city is 37C and the record 43.3C.

Millions of people have been forced to rely on water from tank trucks in the southern Tamil Nadu, which had a 62 percent shortfall in monsoon rains last year.

... Deficient rainfall during the 2017 northeast monsoon and a failed monsoon in 2018 have resulted in the depletion of groundwater levels and the near drying-up of major water bodies. Four major lakes around Chennai - Chembarambakkam, Poondi, Red Hills and Cholavaram - are almost dry.

While 70 percent of India’s population depends on agriculture, 75 percent of water required for the fields comes from the southwest monsoon. Water storage in reservoirs appears insufficient for irrigation and drinking supplies and boreholes down to the groundwater are commonplace.

The increasing population, increase in irrigation requirements, the need for drinking water and deficient monsoon rains have obvious consequences. Boreholes are drawn on for greater supply and the groundwater level consequently drops even further.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: prokaryotes on June 20, 2019, 09:50:39 PM
India's ongoing drought affecting many states of this huge country

Quote
The drought, which officials say is worse than the 1972 famine [..] The village of Hatkarwadi, about 20 miles from Beed in Maharashtra state, is almost completely deserted.
[..] Groundwater, the source of 40% of India’s water needs, is depleting at an unsustainable rate, Niti Aayog, a governmental thinktank, said in a 2018 report. Twenty-one Indian cities – including Delhi, Bengaluru, Chennai and Hyderabad – are expected to run out of groundwater by 2020, and 40% of India’s population will have no access to drinking water by 2030, the report said.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/12/indian-villages-lie-empty-as-drought-forces-thousands-to-flee

From a 2017 news article..
Quote
Chennai's Drinking Water Cut By Half Amid Worst Drought In 140 Years
https://www.ndtv.com/chennai-news/chennai-turns-dry-as-worst-drought-in-140-years-hits-tamil-nadu-1717014
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: bbr2314 on June 20, 2019, 09:50:43 PM
There is gonna be nuclear war on the Indian subcontinent IMO... maybe within the next five years?
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on June 20, 2019, 10:09:51 PM
Hindu nationalists are in power. The population keeps growing. The need for more energy will only get bigger, a lot bigger. But i think they are to late. And that's the moment the scenario of a nuclear war steps in.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: prokaryotes on June 20, 2019, 10:14:45 PM
Re NW: While this is an interesting topic can we have this in a dedicated thread. Would be more interested in learning how India is addressing the drought, what the results are and so on.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: bbr2314 on June 20, 2019, 10:23:56 PM
Hindu nationalists are in power. The population keeps growing. The need for more energy will only get bigger, a lot bigger. But i think they are to late. And that's the moment the scenario of a nuclear war steps in.
It's way too late.. Chennai is already dry, major city after major city could also run dry this year + next.

RE: prokaryotes -- nothing can be done. I guess they could do desal but they have no $. The "day zero" is already here.

The biggest point of tension between India and Pakistan is the waters flowing from the Himalayas... the new Indian dam on the Indus (I think) is in violation of a long-established treaty re: water rights.

What can be done? At this point the only solution is mass depopulation. At first I guess it will happen through "natural" means but as desperation increases, the nukes will fly.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on June 20, 2019, 10:38:21 PM
Satellite Images of Parched Water Bodies Highlight Chennai Drought: Before & After
https://www.news18.com/photogallery/india/tamil-nadu-water-woes-before-after-satellite-photos-of-chennais-dry-lakes-2195293.html

https://www.9news.com.au/world/drought-chennai-indias-sixth-biggest-city-is-almost-entirely-out-of-water/fc504a1b-9da7-4508-a353-4c03089d07d2

(https://images.news18.com/ibnlive/uploads/877x0/jpg/2019/06/Chembarambakkam-Lake-before-the-drought.jpg)
Chembarambakkam Lake in Chennai before the drought. 2018
(https://images.news18.com/ibnlive/uploads/877x0/jpg/2019/06/Chembarambakkam-Lake-in-Chennai-during-the-drought.jpg)
Chembarambakkam Lake in Chennai after the drought. 2019

(https://images.news18.com/ibnlive/uploads/877x0/jpg/2019/06/Puzhal-reservoir-in-Chennai-before-the-drought.jpg)
Puzhal reservoir in Chennai before the drought 2018
(https://images.news18.com/ibnlive/uploads/877x0/jpg/2019/06/Puzhal-reservoir1.jpg)
Puzhal reservoir in Chennai after the drought 2019
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: ivica on June 20, 2019, 11:40:27 PM
Quote
Revitalizing #rivers, lakes and ponds is not for knee jerk actions during summer crisis but a long term commitment. Let us understand this is Generational work. -Sg #WaterCrisis

Chennai water crisis: City's reservoirs run dry (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-48672330?ocid=wsnews.chat-apps.in-app-msg.whatsapp.trial.link1_.auin)
https://twitter.com/SadhguruJV/status/1141625581236174848

Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on June 20, 2019, 11:50:50 PM
From the BBC article

... The situation has prompted clashes to break out between residents. Last week, police arrested a man for stabbing his neighbour during a fight over water-sharing in the neighbourhood.

... "The destruction has just begun," an official said. "If the rain fails us this year too, we are totally destroyed." 
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: prokaryotes on June 21, 2019, 12:51:01 AM
More than 500 arrested after protests and clashes as India water crisis worsens https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/20/india/chennai-water-crisis-intl-hnk/index.html
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: kassy on June 21, 2019, 06:24:02 PM
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2352.150.html

Check out post 173 and the indian temperature graphic in there...quite insane. 
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 22, 2019, 07:23:05 PM
Chennai running out of water:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/06/21/climate/chennai-india-water-shortage-images.html?smid=tw-nytclimate&smtyp=cur&mtrref=t.co
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 23, 2019, 03:54:11 PM
"Each year, India’s June-to-September monsoon season is the most important weather event in the world. Hundreds of millions of people directly depend on the rains. This year, the rains are weeks behind schedule and 39% below normal. It’s a disaster in the making.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1142511152758493185
Image below.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 24, 2019, 06:22:03 PM
Will better forecasting help future Chennais?https://www.circleofblue.org/2019/world/reservoirs-in-parched-chennai-city-of-millions-are-dry-can-better-forecasting-avert-future-crises/
More on Chennai:
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/22/india/chennai-india-water-crisis-intl/index.html
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on June 29, 2019, 06:49:50 PM
U.S. Corn Crop Could Be Smallest Since 2012 Drought
https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/us-corn-crop-could-be-smallest-since-2012-drought

Based on surveys conducted ahead of USDA reports due for release today, analysts say corn plantings will total 86.7 to 87 million acres after a rainy and cold spring. That would be well below the 92.8 million acres that farmers had planned to seed. The 6% downturn in plantings could mean the smallest harvest since drought shriveled fields in 2012, assuming normal weather and yields.

The International Grains Council lowered its forecast for the global corn crop by 2% on Thursday, noting “a difficult start to the growing season for U.S. maize.” Indigo Ag, based in Memphis, Tennessee, said its crop health index for corn, based on satellite imagery, “is significantly below 2018 levels and is ranking below 2012’s historically poor corn harvest.”

Analysts have said there could be a spike in prevented-planting land measuring in the millions of acres. The USDA’s annual Acreage Report, due for release today at noon (EDT), is expected to provide clarity. The USDA surveys tens of thousands of growers during the first two weeks of June for the report.

In a normal year, harvested corn acreage is roughly 8% smaller than planted acreage. The USDA has projected a corn yield of 166 bushels an acre. When those factors are combined with analysts’ estimates of corn plantings, they suggest a harvest of 13.2 to 13.3 billion bushels, which would be the smallest total since 2012’s 10.78 billion bushels.

-----------------------------------

Droughts May Behave Like Dominos: Stanford Study
http://waterinthewest.stanford.edu/news-events/news-insights/domino-droughts

As the United States moves into the summer months, a recent study examines whether a drought in California can be linked to one in the Midwest. The Stanford-led study published in Geophysical Research Letters finds that regions may fall victim to water scarcity like dominos across the nation, the university news service reported.

"We know droughts can travel thousands of miles across continents, but it has not been clear exactly how," said lead author Julio E. Herrera Estrada, a postdoctoral scholar with the Stanford Water in the West program and the Stanford Department of Earth System Science.

In this study, researchers looked at how decreased moisture from this process amplified the 2012 drought in the Midwest, which resulted in losses of over $33 billion.

Like most of the nation, the Midwest relies on moisture imported from other regions. When a drought occurred in the western United States that same year, it resulted in less evaporation and drier air.

The study found that the Midwest eventually recovered from drought when more moisture was imported directly from the ocean. The cycle restarts the process in the region.

"We show that multiple droughts over a continent may not necessarily be a coincidence," Herrera Estrada said.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwaterinthewest.stanford.edu%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2FDrought%2520Prop%2520Figure.jpg&hash=904796e567c9201dc29d0ff403505365)

Julio E. Herrera‐Estrada, et.al., Reduced Moisture Transport Linked to Drought Propagation Across North America (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL082475), Geophysical Research Letters, 24 April 2019

----------------------------------------

Drought in Marathwada, India has Pushed Poor into Penury
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/drought-in-marathwada-has-pushed-poor-into-penury/article28214105.ece

In the last few months severe drought has deprived people of their livelihoods and pushed them into penury. Thousands migrated in search of work while hundreds ended their lives in drought hit region of Marathwada.

But for the tanker lobby money flowed in like water, sand mafia extracted tonnes of sand and gravel from dry rivers, contractors minted money in government’s water conservation works and fodder camp owners earned bumper cash.


“Drought brings death for the poor, but it is an opportunity to multiply money for politicians and the rich... All these years we have witnessed massive corruption in drought relief works, but no effort has been made to stop it”

--------------------------------------

'Our Whole Life is Disrupted': Hope Dries Up as Chennai Battles Historic Drought
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/28/our-whole-life-is-disrupted-hope-dries-up-as-chennai-battles-historic-drought

India is facing the worst water crisis in its history. A government report estimates that 21 cities will run out of groundwater by 2020. ... Political parties are cashing in – the ruling AIADMK government dismisses the crisis as a media creation – while the opposition DMK party has taken to the streets to protest about the government’s inaction.

---------------------------------------

Iraq's Drought Unveils 3,400-Year-Old Palace of Mysterious Empire
https://www.dw.com/en/iraqs-drought-unveils-3400-year-old-palace-of-mysterious-empire/a-49384876

(https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/190628162749-iraq-ancient-palace-kurdistan-large-169.jpg)

A team of German and Kurdish archaeologists have discovered a 3,400-year-old palace that belonged to the mysterious Mittani Empire, the University of Tübingen announced on Thursday.

The discovery was only made possible by a drought that significantly reduced water levels in the Mosul Dam reservoir.


"The find is one of the most important archaeological discoveries in the region in recent decades and illustrates the success of the Kurdish-German cooperation," said Hasan Ahmed Qasim, a Kurdish archaeologist of the Duhok Directorate of Antiquites who worked on the site.

---------------------------------------

No System of Government Designed by Human Beings Can Survive What the Climate Crisis Will Bring
https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a28102591/india-drought-chennai-climate-change-five-years-transform/
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on July 01, 2019, 02:28:47 PM
And in the south of the country it's the opposite. I never payed much attention to what kind of rainfall is normal in the area. But it's already raining a lot for a long time. https://watchers.news/2019/07/01/severe-drought-leaves-1-2-million-ha-2-9-million-acres-of-crops-damaged-shandong-china/
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on July 02, 2019, 06:19:46 PM
Why India's Chennai Has Run Out of Water
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-48797399

Chennai (formerly Madras), the capital of India's southern Tamil Nadu state, is gaining notoriety as the disaster capital of the world - floods one year, cyclone the next, and drought the year after. ... The irony is that Chennai's vulnerability to floods and its water scarcity have common roots. Blinded by a hurry to grow, the city has paved over the very infrastructures that nurtured water.

Between 1980 and 2010, heavy construction in the city meant its area under buildings increased from 47 sq km to 402 sq km. Meanwhile, areas under wetlands declined from 186 to 71.5 sq km.

Early agrarian settlements in Chennai respected the unpredictable weather with growth limited not by availability of land but of water.

This agrarian logic valourised open spaces. Each village had vast tracts of land, including water bodies, grazing grounds and wood lots, demarcated as Poromboke or commons. Construction was outlawed in the commons. The three districts of Chennai, Thiruvallur and Kanchipuram alone had more than 6000 reservoirs (erys) - some as old as 1,500 years.

So rather than transport water over long distances against gravity, early settlers had the technology and good sense to harvest water where it fell.

But this faded with the advent of modern technology.

... As urban logic took root, built-up spaces began to be seen as more valuable than open earth. In fact, one could argue that Chennai's date with "zero water" was made in the 17th Century when it was incorporated as a city by Royal Charter. Born a colony of the British, the city rapidly became a coloniser of the countryside.

Reliance on a distant water source disconnected residents of the fast urbanising settlement from local water and landscapes. For the urban agenda, this was great as it freed up inner-city water bodies for real estate development.

In the 1920s for instance, the ancient 70 acre Mylapore reservoir (tank) was filled up to create what is now a bustling residential and commercial area called T Nagar.

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/15251c19edb248565e7aa2ea25ef36715fb82931/0_0_6089_4126/master/6089.jpg?width=700&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=800771ba9dbeec379c6a3b41a2f45eb7)
India received 24 percent less rainfall than the 50-year average in the week ending on June 26, data from the India Meteorological Department showed, with scant rains over central and western regions of the country. ... The spectre of a crisis this year comes after drought in some parts of India in 2018 destroyed crops, ravaged livestock and exhausted reservoirs, leaving some cities and industries with little water.

... Land-use planning today is a far cry from the simple principles that prevailed in medieval Tamil Nadu.

Wetlands were off-limits for construction, and only low-density buildings were permitted on lands immediately upstream of tanks. The reason: These lands have to soak up the rainwater before letting it to run to the reservoir.

It is this sub-surface water that will flow to the lake as the levels go down with use and time. Unmindful of such common sense, the IT Corridor (a road which houses a large number of IT companies in the city) was built almost entirely on Chennai's precious Pallikaranai marshlands.

And the area immediately upstream of Chembarambakkam - the city's largest drinking water reservoir - has now been converted into an automotive special economic zone (SEZ).

Other water bodies have been treated with similar disdain.

The Perungudi garbage dump spreads out through the middle of the Pallikaranai marshlands.

The Manali marshlands were drained in the 1960s for Tamil Nadu's largest petrochemical refinery. Electricity for the city comes from a cluster of power plants built on the Ennore Creek, a tidal wetland that has been converted into a dump for coal-ash.

The Pallavaram Big Tank, which is perhaps more than 1,000 years old, has over the last two decades been bisected by a high-speed road with the remainder serving as a garbage dump for the locality.

... Along the periphery of Chennai, and far into the hinterland, the land is dotted with communities whose water and livelihoods have been forcibly taken to feed the city. The water crises in these localities desiccated by the city never make it to the news.

-------------------------------

Villagers Accuse City of Seizing Water as Drought Parches 'India's Detroit'
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-water-chennai/villagers-accuse-city-of-seizing-water-as-drought-parches-indias-detroit-idUSKCN1TX1BF

Local tensions have been inflamed by the Tamil Nadu state government tapping wells normally used for agriculture and villagers’ daily needs.

... People living on the outskirts of Chennai, this southern Indian metropolis are blocking roads and laying siege to tanker lorries because they fear their water reserves are being sacrificed so city dwellers, businesses and luxury hotels don’t run out.


Private tankers have fitted more than eight bore wells in our village and are indiscriminately extracting thousands of liters of water every day,” the Bangarampettai villagers wrote in a letter to a government official in the region a day after they stopped the tanker.

(https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/12/2666/2641/Areas%20of%20Chennai%20average%20water%20level.jpg)

... We don’t have water in one of the two water tanks in the village now because the private tankers have been extracting water day and night.”

------------------------------

India’s Deadly Drought: Villagers in Mokhada Battle Sleepless Nights, Snakes in Search of Water
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3016818/indias-deadly-drought-villagers-mokhada-battle

... This region is facing a crushing water scarcity. Dominated mostly by tribal hamlets, Mokhada is underdeveloped – it has a literacy rate that is two-thirds lower than the national rate of 74 per cent; it sees hundreds of children dying each year due to poor nourishment and health care facilities.

(https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2019/07/02/3e6424e0-9bef-11e9-baa5-dd214ed0de8f_972x_115323.jpg)

... Mokhada’s drought carries a heavy and almost tragic sense of irony. It is not a dry region; five rivers originate here. The region generally sees over 2,400 millimetres of rainfall a year. But instead of providing for the locals, much of the water is diverted to Mumbai – which gets a major chunk of its water from here – along with other cities and industrial corridors.

The scarcity can turn fatal. In April 2012, a woman died from the exertion of trying to fetch water. In addition, the hilly terrain in the region means the rainwater does not percolate but instead, slides off down the valley into the rivers.

Locals are left with the hard choice of staring at rivers flowing past, even as they struggle for each drop. ... The village’s only source of water, a common well, ran out of water in January this year.

---------------------------

Drought-Hit Kenya Sees 2 Million People Needing Food Aid in July
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-27/drought-hit-kenya-sees-2-million-people-needing-food-aid-in-july

The number of people facing a food crisis in Kenya could reach 2 million in July as the effects of a drought that hit food production and caused prices to soar continue to bite.

People needing food assistance will increase from 1.6 million in May, the National Drought Management Authority said in a report.

... “The food security situation has worsened,” the state’s drought-management agency said. “Crop across the country was affected by the delayed, poorly distributed and cumulatively below-average March-to-May long rains.”
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 09, 2019, 02:52:06 PM
Chile suffers worst drought in 60 years, becoming permanent:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/07/chile-suffers-worst-drought-60-years-190708191849467.html
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on July 09, 2019, 07:48:42 PM
Semi-Arid Land in China expanded in Recent Decades; Will Continue to Expand
https://phys.org/news/2019-07-semi-arid-china-decades.html

Drylands cover approximately 50% of the land surface in China, among which semi-arid regions are the main dryland type. However, these semi-arid regions have undergone continuous expansion and a significant drying trend in recent decades, which increases the risk of land degradation and deterioration in China.

Studies have shown that semi-arid regions dominate the coverage of drylands in northern China, which have experienced the largest warming and significant expansion during the last 60 years. The climate in expanded semi-arid regions has become drier and warmer, particularly in the newly formed semi-arid areas, and the drying trend is strongly associated with the weakened East Asian summer monsoon. The intensity of the regional temperature response over these regions has been amplified by land-atmosphere interactions and human activities, and the decadal to interdecadal climate variation in semi-arid regions is regulated by oceanic oscillations. Dust-cloud-precipitation interactions may have altered semi-arid precipitation by affecting the local energy and hydrological cycles.

"In the 21st century, semi-arid regions in China are projected to continuously expand. It will increase the challenges in dealing with desertification, food security and water supply."

Jianping Huang et al, Progress in Semi-arid Climate Change Studies in China (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00376-018-8200-9), Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (2019)

-------------------------

Before and After Photos: Drought Wipes Chilean Lake From the Map
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/144836/lake-aculeo-dries-up
https://www.geek.com/news/before-and-after-photos-drought-wipes-chilean-lake-from-the-map-1779472/

(https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/144000/144836/lakeaculeo_oli_201457.jpg)
2014
(https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/144000/144836/lakeaculeo_oli_201971.jpg)
2019: In the 2019 image, the green within the lake is vegetation, not water.

There’s no single explanation, but climate change is considered a key factor — locals and experts point to a drastic decrease in rainfall. Average annual rainfall in central Chile during the 1980s was nearly 14 inches, AFP reported. By 2018, that had fallen by half, and scientists predict it will continue to fall because of global warming.

But agricultural practices requiring vast amounts of water and lakeside development have also contributed to the depletion of water sources.

-------------------------------

Chile Suffers the Worst Drought in 60 Years
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/07/chile-suffers-worst-drought-60-years-190708191849467.html

Central Chile is suffering the worst drought in 60 years. That includes the capital Santiago, home to nearly half the country's population of 18 million.

Experts predict climate change, over-exploitation by agriculture and other factors means the shortage of water will be permanent.

Chile's populated capital Santiago, as well as the Valparaiso region, could be left without drinking water by 2030.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on July 11, 2019, 08:25:02 PM
Another metropole in trouble. https://watchers.news/2019/07/11/angat-dam-critical-low-manila-philippines/
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on July 12, 2019, 06:15:04 PM
Water Express Delivers Emergency Supplies to Drought-hit Indian City
https://phys.org/news/2019-07-emergency-drought-hit-indian-city.html

(https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/190712132853-chennai-water-exlarge-169.jpeg:small)

A special 50-wagon train carrying 2.5 million litres of water arrived in the Indian city of Chennai Friday, as the southern hub reels under one of its worst shortages in decades.

Four special trains a day have been called up to bring water to Chennai—India's sixth most populous city—from Vellore, some 80 miles (125 kilometres) away, to help battle the drought.

The first consignment will be taken to a water treatment centre, and then distributed in trucks to different parts of the metropolis on Saturday.

Chennai has seen only a fraction of the rain it usually receives during June and July.

The bustling capital of Tamil Nadu state normally requires at least 825 million litres of water a day, but authorities are currently only able to supply 60 percent of that.

With temperatures regularly hitting 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit), reservoirs have run dry and other water sources are dwindling further each day.


... State government has dismissed reports that water is not reaching everyone in the city. "The reports that every district does not have water is not true. We are working to supply water to every district ... don't make water political," Tamil Nadu's chief minister, Edappadi K. Palaniswami, said during a press conference last month.

Even as the 50 wagons rolled into Chennai on Friday, the process of unloading the water was delayed as officials waited for state ministers to reach the location to officially welcome the train.

--------------------------------

Life in a City Without Water: Anxious, Exhausting and Sweaty
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/11/world/asia/india-water-crisis.html

CHENNAI, India — When the water’s gone, you bathe in what drips out of the air-conditioner.

... Today, Mr. Jeevantham, 60, runs his groundwater pump seven hours a day to satisfy the needs of his own family of four and their tenants. It slurps water from 80 feet under the ground, slowly draining from the lake.

“The lake[Velachery] is God’s gift,” he marveled. But for how much longer? This, he didn't know. “Maybe five years,” he said, laughing uncomfortably.

... Near the city center, the groundwater is nearly gone. Dev Anand, 30, still lives in his childhood home in the Anna Nagar area. For much of his life, his family relied on what city water came through the pipes. When that wasn’t enough, they drew water from under the ground. This summer, that dried up. For a few weeks, his neighbor shared his water. Then his groundwater dried up too. ... No one knows when their bore wells will be exhausted. People are still drilling more wells all over the city, draining the aquifer further and faster.

... And then there’s the air-conditioner. Everyone collects its drip. One day, when Rushyant Baskar woke up after working the night shift and turned on his water pump, a dry wheezing sound was all he heard. The buckets were empty, except the one under the air-conditioner. It was the only water he had.

At that point, we thought: We must get out of Chennai,” said Mr. Baskar, 28


(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-_6PbZ-X_PpY/W1Nk1xsvtnI/AAAAAAAApUQ/pwRsMy1ba7soZgMOrjhBRya6ppf1hq9wACHMYCw/image%255B20%255D?imgmax=800)
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 13, 2019, 07:12:01 PM
The long California drought killed 150,000,000 trees:
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/why-californias-drought-killed-almost-150-million-trees-180972591/
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on July 18, 2019, 06:24:18 PM
California's Future Weather Will Alternate Between Drought and Atmospheric Rivers, Study Says
https://www.sfgate.com/weather/article/Atmospheric-river-drought-Calif-weather-Scripps-14083031.php
https://www.wired.com/story/atmospheric-rivers-get-an-intensity-scale-like-hurricanes/

(https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41598-019-46169-w/MediaObjects/41598_2019_46169_Fig3_HTML.png?as=webp)
Coefficient of variation (i.e. variance normalized by the mean) of de-trended* annual total precipitation during historical (a) and future (b) time periods in the Real-5 LOCA-downscaled GCM ensemble average, and the difference (c).

The study, published Tuesday in the journal Nature Scientific Reports, looked at climate scenarios from 16 global climate models focusing on western North America. All 16 predicted that most of the heavy precipitation that the West receives in the future will come from the vast streams of moisture in the sky known as atmospheric rivers. A single atmospheric river typically carries twice the amount of water flowing in the entire Amazon River.

"As Mediterranean climate regions around the world are becoming more subtropical, the dry season is expanding. California is no exception," Scripps climate scientist and study lead author Alexander Gershunov said. "What is exceptional about California is that the heavy precipitation is projected to become more extreme."

Here's what scientists expect to happen:

—Overall precipitation will be about the same or slightly more over the long term. But it will progressively become more dramatic — more will fall in extreme bursts, increasing the possibility of flooding. Daily precipitation will become less frequent as there will be fewer storms not related to atmospheric rivers (ARs).

—California will not be able to rely on mountain snowpack to portion out water from melting snow. Because atmospheric river storms are warmer, snow levels will be higher. Driving rain will wash away snowpack at lower elevations. As the Sierra Nevada acts as a barrier to easterly moving storms, "California's topography is ideally aligned to extract increasingly heavy precipitation from strengthening ARs," the study said.

—Due to the unpredictability of snowmelt, resource managers may have to overhaul the state's water storage procedures. So far this century, there have only been four wet years — 2005, 2011, 2017 and 2019. In 2015, amid California's five-year drought, the Sierra Nevada received only 5 percent of its normal snow accumulation.

—Periods of drought will become more numerous and lengthy, but California is not projected to dry as severely as other Mediterranean climate regions around the world.

—The state will experience a feast-or-famine rainfall scenario — drought vacillating with flooding.

Open Access: Alexander Gershunov,et.al., Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-46169-w), Scientific Reports volume 9, Article number: 9944 (2019)

---------------------------------

Never Mind Those Earthquakes: Atmospheric Rivers Could Put Sacramento 30 Feet Under Water
https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/environment/article232426112.html
https://climate.nasa.gov/system/video_items/59_atriver_1080p30.mp4

A research team led by Sasha Gershunov at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego published a new study on atmospheric rivers in Nature Scientific Reports this week that places atmospheric rivers under scrutiny as the driving cause behind California’s increasingly extreme, infrequent bouts of precipitation.

Gershunov’s team used 16 global climate models to analyze the expanding role of atmospheric rivers as contributors to precipitation in California. The results show that atmospheric rivers are getting stronger and wetter, and catastrophic events like the Great Flood of 1862 could happen again.

“In 1862, Sacramento was underwater,” Gershunov said. “It was most certainly due to an atmospheric river.”

In 1861, Northern California became the focal point for two consecutive atmospheric rivers that surged into the Sierra Nevada, melting snow at disastrous rates. By 1862, a catastrophic flood swept through the Central Valley, augmented by two rainstorms, creating an inland sea that was 300 miles long and 60 miles wide.

It rained for 45 days straight, according to a film produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. Thousands of cattle drowned, and vineyards and homes were washed away. The state went bankrupt. The American River near Auburn rose 35 feet, submerging towns.

No place was more affected than Sacramento, however.

Situated at the confluence of the American and Sacramento rivers, the city went under 30 feet of water.

Leland Stanford, the governor-elect, had to row a boat to his inauguration in January 1862.

“Nearly every house and farm over this immense region is gone. America has never seen such desolation by a flood,” wrote botanist William Brewer of the California Division of Mines and Geology in 1862.

According to a team led by scientist Dale Cox at the U.S. Geological Survey, California is due for another megaflood.

“Absolutely, it could happen again,” Gershunov said. “The probability of it happening is increasing with stronger atmospheric rivers.”
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 22, 2019, 05:27:10 PM
AGW to stress Southwest waterways:
https://publicintegrity.org/environment/southwestern-waterways-emerge-as-latest-climate-change-battlegrounds/
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on July 25, 2019, 01:33:29 AM
Climate Change May Revive Medieval Megadroughts in US Southwest
https://phys.org/news/2019-07-climate-revive-medieval-megadroughts-southwest.html

About a dozen megadroughts struck the American Southwest between the 9th through the 15th centuries, but then they mysteriously ceased around the year 1600. What caused this clustering of megadroughts—that is, severe droughts that last for decades—and why do they happen at all?

A study published today in Science Advances provides the first comprehensive theory for why there were megadroughts in the American Southwest. The authors found that ocean temperature conditions plus high radiative forcing—when Earth absorbs more sunlight than it radiates back into space—play important roles in triggering megadroughts. The study suggests an increasing risk of future megadroughts in the American Southwest due to climate change.


By reconstructing aquatic climate data and sea-surface temperatures from the last 2,000 years, the team found three key factors that led to megadroughts in the American Southwest: radiative forcing, severe and frequent La Niña events—cool tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures that cause changes to global weather events—and warm conditions in the Atlantic. High radiative forcing appears to have dried out the American Southwest, likely due to an increase in solar activity (which would send more radiation toward us) and a decrease in volcanic activity (which would admit more of it) at the time. The resulting increase in heat would lead to greater evaporation. At the same time, warmer than usual Atlantic sea-surface temperatures combined with very strong and frequent La Niñas decreased precipitation in the already dried-out area. Of these three factors, La Niña conditions were estimated to be more than twice as important in causing the megadroughts.

There are predictions about future trends in temperatures, aridity, and sea surface temperatures, but future El Niño and La Niña activity remains difficult to simulate. Nevertheless, the researchers conclude that human-driven climate change is stacking the deck towards more megadroughts in the future.

"Because you increase the baseline aridity, in the future when you have a big La Niña, or several of them in a row, it could lead to megadroughts in the American West," explained lead author Nathan Steiger, a Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory hydroclimatologist.

During the time of the medieval megadroughts, increased radiative forcing was caused by natural climate variability. But today we are experiencing increased dryness in many locations around the globe due to human-made forces. Climate change is setting the stage for an increased possibility of megadroughts in the future through greater aridity, say the researchers.

(https://cnet1.cbsistatic.com/img/suylzg4zbkDVxoS-FFUubOI7S2A=/940x0/2019/07/24/51e4d084-6875-4ba5-85bc-40b18df467ee/206830.png)

Open Access; N.J. Steiger el al., "Oceanic and radiative forcing of medieval megadroughts in the American Southwest," (https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/7/eaax0087) Science Advances (2019)

-------------------------------

Clues On How Soils May Respond to Climate Change Found
https://phys.org/news/2019-07-clues-soils-climate.html

Rock core samples from a period of warming millions of years ago indicate soils contributed to a rapid rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas and suggest modern climate models may overestimate Earth's ability to mitigate future warming, according to an international team of scientists.

Researchers discovered a drastic drop in organic material preserved in sections of core samples from the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), a global warming event 55.5 million years ago that's considered the best analogue for modern climate change.

Quote
... "We see the amount of carbon drops drastically, by orders of magnitude, during this PETM event," ... So at least in Wyoming, my data suggests soils acted as a source, not a sink, for carbon dioxide

The findings, according to the researchers, suggest ancient soils from a site in modern day Wyoming acted as a source of atmospheric carbon dioxide, emitting the greenhouse gas into the atmosphere, and not a sink, trapping and storing carbon underground.

The researchers said this could mean global climate models, which expect soils to be a sink, may overstate the ability of terrestrial ecosystems to lessen the impacts of climate change.

The researchers found the 130-foot section they believe to represent the PETM had the lowest weight of total carbon and biomarkers of any part of the core.

"At least in the Bighorn Basin, it appears that high PETM temperature, seasonally intense precipitation, or a combination, accelerated organic matter decay rates such that they outpaced plant productivity and ultimately resulted in reduced soil organic carbon during the PETM," Baczynski said.

The PETM is marked by global rise in temperatures, from about 9 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit, and a rapid increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. The carbon dioxide from this time has a unique isotopic signature, and scientists can identify it in tree and plant fossils that absorbed the carbon.

Allison A. Baczynski et al, Carbon Isotope Record of Trace n ‐alkanes in a Continental PETM Section Recovered by the Bighorn Basin Coring Project (BBCP) (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019PA003579), Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology (2019)
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on July 25, 2019, 08:55:56 AM
Rhine River Shipping Faces Another Historic Shutdown as Drought Hits Water Levels
https://amp.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2019/07/24/533767.htm

The bustling boat traffic on Europe’s Rhine river ground to a halt for the first time in living memory last year, as shrinking alpine glaciers and severe drought made the key transport artery impassable. Those historic conditions could be repeated in a few weeks.

With little rainfall recently, water levels at Kaub — a critical chokepoint near Frankfurt — dropped to about 150 centimeters (59 inches), half the depth from just a month ago. Movements of the heaviest barges are already restricted, and all river cargo could again cease if the level falls below 50 centimeters.

(https://www.insurancejournal.com/app/uploads/2019/07/rhine-river-receding.jpg)

Companies up and down the Rhine — from Royal Dutch Shell Plc to BASF SE — are stepping up emergency planning: buying smaller boats, protectively booking truck and train capacity and cramming more supplies into warehouses. Forecasts for a heatwave have further jangled nerves, with hot and dry conditions expected to remain in place for at least the next 10 days, according to weather forecaster Maxar.

“We are expecting clear blue skies” and temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit) in Germany, said Andreas Friedrich, meteorologist at Germany’s DWD federal weather agency. “The water-level situation will get worse.”

... An April study by ETH Zurich predicts that half of the Alps’ glaciers could disappear within three decades.

That would cause the once-mighty Rhine to become even more reliant on rainfall, but changes to the jet stream make it more likely that arid heat from the Sahara sweeps over Europe.
Two-month forecasts from Germany’s DWD federal weather service point to a third consecutive summer of exceptionally dry weather.

Efforts to mitigate the impact of a renewed halt of Rhine shipping — which caused Germany and Switzerland to tap into emergency fuel stockpiles last year — are merely stopgaps. Road and rail capacity is limited and much more expensive than barge transport. Storage availability along the Rhine is already tight because of Brexit-related stockpiling.

But officials acknowledged that they can’t keep boats floating if water runs low.

“The Rhine is a natural river,” said Hans-Heinrich Witte, president of Germany’s WSV rivers authority. “There are limits to what we can do to keep it open as an industrial waterway.” 
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: kassy on July 25, 2019, 09:02:53 AM
Thanks for the reports vox. Could you repost the Clues On How Soils May Respond to Climate Change Found article to Carbon Cycle in Science? It´s a bit lost in here...and i think it is too important for that.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 25, 2019, 03:34:18 PM
Quote
“The Rhine is a natural river,” said Hans-Heinrich Witte, president of Germany’s WSV rivers authority. “There are limits to what we can do to keep it open as an industrial waterway.” 
Imagine putting locks along certain portions of the Rhine.  That sad day may be coming.  "Natural, smatrual", I hear Tom Lehrer singing. Wernher von Braun (https://youtu.be/TjDEsGZLbio)
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: kassy on July 25, 2019, 09:05:43 PM
Not much meltwater from ice and snow + ever higher evaporation will make that problematic after a while.

I think the Rhine going to low for transport might be a good wake up call. We were close last year but not close enough. For many it is closer then any BOE so hopefully it will influence some politicians to not kick the can down the road again.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 27, 2019, 08:16:21 PM
East Africa in crisis:
http://news.trust.org/item/20190725163136-o3xzv/
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on July 29, 2019, 02:51:14 AM
How India's Drought in Tamil Nadu Affects US Pharmaceuticals
https://edmdigest.com/original/drought-us-pharmaceuticals/?amp

Sometimes, in a global economy, an abstract problem 'over there', can suddenly become a concrete problem 'over here.'

Take the drought in Chennai, the capital of Tamil Nadu.

Tamil Nadu is one of India’s most prominent states in pharmaceutical manufacturing, ranking fifth out of the nation’s 29 states. Approximately 50 percent of the pharmaceuticals manufactured in India are exported, with the United States being a major importer of many of these drugs.


According to Pharmaceutical Technology, Tamil Nadu supplies 50% of the global demand for a range of vaccines, 40% of the generics demand in the U.S. and 25% of all UK medicine. That makes the state of Tamil Nadu important to Americans’ health.

No water - no drugs.


If the water crisis continues, the United States will face its own crisis as India is the nation’s ninth largest trading partner. U.S. goods and services trade with India totaled an estimated $142.1 billion in 2018. Exports were $58.9 billion; imports were $83.2 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with India was $24.2 billion in 2018, according to a report from the Office of the United States Trade Representative.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on August 02, 2019, 06:02:16 PM
2°C of Global Warming Would Put Pressure On Melbourne's Water Supply
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-2c-global-pressure-melbourne.html

(https://images.theconversation.com/files/286545/original/file-20190801-169706-1el56mf.gif)

Melbourne's existing water supplies may face pressure if global warming hits the 2℃ level, according to our new research published today in Environmental Research Letters.

The effects of drying and warming in southern Australia are expected to reduce natural water supplies. Climate models and hydrological models together indicate future declines in catchment inflows as global warming increases from 1.5℃ to 2℃. If we overshoot 2℃ of warming, even the desalination plant might not provide enough drinking water to a growing population.

Currently, all capital city urban reservoir systems in southern Australia are below 60%, and several are nearing or below 50%. The Victorian government recently ordered 125 gigalitres of water from the desalination plant.

(https://www.australia.com/content/australia/en/places/melbourne-and-surrounds/_jcr_content/imageMapWithCityLink/image.img.png)
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 06, 2019, 11:10:41 PM
Chennai's growth threatened by water shortage:
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/indias-chennai-rapid-growth-threatened-water-shortages-64775676
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: DrTskoul on August 07, 2019, 12:30:56 PM
It’s the other way around. Growth has created the water shortage...
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: kassy on August 07, 2019, 04:19:59 PM
And lots of bad policies. Quoting just a short snippet:


Bengaluru is typical of urban areas countrywide. Every metro/city/town demands more and more water from outside, instead of cutting loss and wastage, conserving water, harvesting rainwater and protecting water resources. A study shows that Bengaluru’s annual domestic water demand of 18.34 TMC (at a lavish 135 litres person per day) can be met from the annual rainwater yield of 14.80 TMC plus 16.04 TMC from treated domestic wastewater, leaving 12.5 TMC annually for industrial/commercial use.

https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/main-article/looming-water-crisis-there-is-a-way-out-752573.html
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on August 12, 2019, 06:06:53 PM
Irrigation could be delaying monsoon in India, cautions IPCC study
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/irrigation-could-be-delaying-monsoon-in-india-cautions-ipcc-study/article28988517.ece

... “Irrigation in India occurs prior to the start of the monsoon season and the resulting land cooling decreases the land-sea temperature contrast. This can delay the onset of the monsoon and decrease its intensity,” the report said, quoting studies carried out in the past.

... However, according to the Hamburg scientists, if India were to reduce watering its crops, rainfall can decrease in eastern Africa where the consequences of drought are already disastrous.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: TerryM on August 12, 2019, 09:25:49 PM
^^
You make it sound as if it's somehow connected?


You're not one of those believers in butterfly wing flapping are you?


The FSM is the only true Flying God, and He's a jealous SOB (Spaghetti over Bratwurst)
Begone with the fashionable frippery that stands between The Provided Truth and this thing called Math.


Ramen
Terry
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on August 12, 2019, 09:44:01 PM
(https://www.venganza.org/images/spreadword/IDballs_th.jpg) (https://www.venganza.org/images/spreadword/th_pchart1.jpg)
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: TerryM on August 13, 2019, 02:02:05 AM
^^
Ramen Matey!
Terry
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: DrTskoul on August 15, 2019, 12:08:10 PM
Amid drought, plants in Chennai guzzle 21 million liters of groundwater per day (https://desdemonadespair.net/2019/08/amid-drought-plants-in-chennai-guzzle-21-million-liters-of-groundwater-per-day-we-are-moving-towards-a-groundwater-disaster-on-one-hand-the-surface-water-resources-are-being-dest.html)

(https://static.toiimg.com/photo/imgsize-535117,msid-70338713/70338713.jpg)

Quote
Drought-prone Tamil Nadu has the highest number of licensed packaged drinking water and carbonated beverages units in the country. These water-guzzling plants operating in and around Chennai draw at least 21 million litres of water every day. For the record, water-starved Tamil Nadu has 40 percent of the total ‘over-exploited’ groundwater resource locations in India.

Data released by the Union ministry of Jal Shakti in Lok Sabha last week revealed that TN has 3,299 licensed mineral water, packaged drinking water and carbonated beverage units and bottling plants, which is 18 percent of the total such units running in the country.

Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: TerryM on August 15, 2019, 07:38:30 PM
Locally we prefer giving our spring water to Nestle at no charge. They bottle it and return it for a small surcharge. >:(
Terry
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: nanning on August 16, 2019, 06:19:53 AM
Netherlands droughtmonitor report.
(13 aug 2019, from the Government's watermanagement center LCW)

https://waterberichtgeving.rws.nl/LCW/droogtedossier/droogtemonitoren-2019 (https://waterberichtgeving.rws.nl/LCW/droogtedossier/droogtemonitoren-2019)

The report is in Dutch. Here is a translation of part of the introduction.

Despite the recent rainfall, the east and south of the Netherlands and Zeeland are still suffering from drought. Groundwater levels remain too low in many places. The rainfall stabilizes the situation but there is no recovery of groundwater levels yet. In a number of areas, mainly on the elevated sandy soil areas, nature and agriculture are stressed. These areas are dependent on rainfall and groundwater and are not fed by the big rivers and other waterways.

Country wide the quality of the water has a bit improved but e.g. the number of negative swimming advices is not falling.


more info@ https://www.duurzaamnieuws.nl/grondwater-droogt-op-door-klimaatverandering (https://www.duurzaamnieuws.nl/grondwater-droogt-op-door-klimaatverandering)
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on August 25, 2019, 03:36:28 AM
Worst Drought In Decades Hits Chile Capital and Outskirts
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-worst-drought-decades-chile-capital.html

Officials in Chile say the capital city and its outskirts are suffering from the worst drought in many years.

The government has declared an agricultural emergency in many areas to try to fast-track a series of relief measures for farmers, including provision of drinking water and medicine for animals.

Santiago Metropolitan region, Coquimbo, Valparaiso and O'Higgins are among the worst-hit areas.

Agriculture Minister Antonio Walker said this week that 2019 is one of the driest years Chile has faced in six decades.

Officials are increasingly concerned by the effects of climate change after a long-drought. The world's leading copper-producing country uses large quantities of water for the industry, which is the backbone of the economy.

------------------

U.S. Shipments from Chile Dropping Amid Extreme Drought
https://www.google.com/amp/www.freightwaves.com/news/u-s-shipments-from-chile-dropping-amid-extreme-drought/amp

Central Chile is suffering its worst drought in 60 years. This includes the capital of Santiago, home to nearly half the country’s population of 18 million people, as well as the nearby region of Valparaiso. Experts predict climate change, over-exploitation by agriculture and other factors mean the shortage of water will be permanent. Not only is this changing the lives of farmers and ranchers, but it’s also cutting into revenue from agricultural products sent on cargo ships from Chile to the U.S.

Santiago and surrounding areas are in the midst of what scientists have called a Mega Drought (MD) – an uninterrupted period of dry years since 2010. It encompasses a broad area with detrimental effects on water availability, vegetation and forest fires that have scaled into social and economical impacts.

The drought is so bad that Chile’s Minister of Agriculture, Antonio Walker, announced recently that the government had decided to declare an agricultural emergency in the Region of Valparaiso due to the water shortage.

... Imports of grapes (fresh or dried) from Chile to the U.S. fell 14.6 percent, to $659.91 million, for the same year-over-year period; strawberries, blueberries and raspberries combined fell 11.72 percent to $262.91 million.

-----------------------

Farmers in Chile Losing Freshwater Battle with Lithium Mines
https://desdemonadespair.net/2019/08/farmers-in-chile-losing-freshwater-battle-with-lithium-mines-well-be-left-here-with-no-water-no-animals-no-agriculture-with-nothing.html

... Chile is the world’s second-largest producer after Australia, with an output of 16,000 tonnes last year, all from the Atacama. Valued at $949m (£785m) this was a 38% rise on 2017.

There are currently just two companies mining lithium here – a US firm, Albemarle, and Chile’s own SQM.

They need the fresh water to clean machinery and pipes, and also to produce an auxiliary product from the brine – potash – which is used as a fertiliser.

Standing among yellowing tufts of grass that used to be pasture lands Sarah – who monitors water supplies for her indigenous community – points out a small pumping station that draws up underground fresh water and pipes it to the lithium mines.

... “The birds have gone, we can’t keep animals anymore,” ... “It’s getting harder and harder to grow crops. If it gets any worse … we will have to emigrate.” …
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: DrTskoul on August 27, 2019, 07:34:22 PM
World’s largest permafrost river dries to a record low (https://www.siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/worlds-largest-permafrost-river-dries-to-a-record-low/)

Quote
Lena River fleet cannot sail after abnormal heat causes 2.5 metre water level drop.

(https://www.siberiantimes.com/upload/information_system_52/7/6/8/item_7684/information_items_7684.jpg)

Quote
The current water level means critical delays in the summer ritual delivering vital supplies to Arctic settlements in Yakutia, Russia’s biggest region.

Most of its remote corners are only accessible via water, with the lives of thousands of people depending on this traffic flow - which has been halted for weeks due to the low level of the longest river flowing entirely within Russia.

In regional capital Yakutsk the water dropped so suddenly that hundreds of cargo ships and smaller boats were left stranded in the sand.

Elsewhere along the river fishermen complained about an extremely low catch, saying that for days they were coming back home with empty buckets.

‘However many times I tried fishing with spinning and net, I caught nothing. I am now having to buy fish at shops, and many of us anglers fear that fish will die out in such shallow water’, bemoaned local fishermen Alexander Chigmarev.

(https://www.siberiantimes.com/PICTURES/OTHERS/river-Lena-runs-dry/8.jpg)
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 27, 2019, 09:14:48 PM
The village surviving a drought on cave water
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/49436917/the-village-surviving-a-drought-on-cave-water
Quote
During Indonesia's summer months, in villages like Klepu in East Java province, the only source of clean water is in a 10m (33ft) deep cave.

To tackle rising demand, the government has made plans to give 10 million more homes running water by 2024.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 29, 2019, 09:55:32 PM
People across Southwest long for seasonal rainstorms
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/people-southwest-longing-seasonal-rainstorms-65228444
Quote
The monsoon season, characterized by a shift in wind patterns and moisture being pulled in from the tropical coast of Mexico, arrives like clockwork in mid-June and runs through September. Usually it means rain but not much has fallen this summer and the Southwest is parched.

The Flagstaff airport usually logs nearly 5.5 inches of rain by now has only seen one-fifth of that — the driest in 120 years. Las Vegas has barely recorded any rain. The city of St. George, Utah, had zero rain in July and August — far from the average 1.25 inches (2.75 cm).

The dryness stretching across the Four Corners region has hydrologists worried, although many places are still above-normal for precipitation because of a wet winter.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 14, 2019, 01:18:47 PM
Zimbabwe Drought Risks Famine and Climate Change Makes It Worse
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-09-13/a-water-crisis-is-making-things-even-worse-in-zimbabwe

... Zimbabwe is in the grip of a nationwide drought that’s depleted dams, cut output by hydropower plants, caused harvests to fail and prompted the government to appeal for $464 million in aid to stave off famine. It’s disastrous for a nation whose economy has been driven to the brink of collapse by two decades of mismanagement, meaning the authorities can’t afford to effect repairs, let alone extend water access to a burgeoning urban population.

But Zimbabwe’s location means it’s likely to experience more frequent droughts in future. The United Nations International Panel on Climate Change has identified southern Africa as a so-called hotspot—a region that faces increased risks of heat extremes and less rainfall as the planet’s temperature rises.

The consequences are plain to see in Zimbabwe’s second city of Bulawayo, in the west of the country. Once a thriving industrial hub, most manufacturing has come to a standstill and the city council has begun rationing water from the pumps and pipes that still work in a bid to stretch supplies until November when the rainy season normally begins.

Quote
... “Life here goes backwards,” ... “First there was no water, now there’s usually no electricity. That’s our life now.”
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Alexander555 on September 15, 2019, 10:01:56 AM
The river Maas is running dry (again), and it's not just climate change. https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2019/09/11/de-maas-als-bron-van-drinkwater-kwetsbaarder-door-droogte-a3972921
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 15, 2019, 02:03:35 PM
Australia

‘Critical’: parts of regional NSW set to run out of water by November
Quote
WaterNSW warns without significant rain, Macquarie River will run dry, wiping out supply to Dubbo, Cobar, Nyngan and Narromine

Parts of regional New South Wales could run out of water as early as November with data showing the worst-case scenario for the state if there’s no rain or government intervention.

The projections from NSW’s river operator and bulk water supplier WaterNSW show without significant rain the first towns to lose water supply will be Dubbo, Cobar, Nyngan and Narromine with the Macquarie River forecast to run dry by November.

The Macquarie River experiences an average inflow of 1,448GL annually but in the past two years has seen just 97GL enter the river system, the data shows.

It has been described as a “critical” situation by the NSW water minister, Melinda Pavey, who told reporters in Canberra on Sunday the government is doing “everything humanly possible” to make sure the state gets through this devastating drought.

The NSW government has committed $130m for extra bores and pipelines to reduce water lost in transmission, she said, citing a pipeline to extend Tamworth’s water supply by 18 months and $30m for bores in Dubbo.

Australia’s longest river, the Murray, has been severely affected with 901GL of water entering the system in the past 12 months compared with its annual average of 5000GL. ...
https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/15/parts-of-regional-nsw-set-to-run-out-of-water-by-november
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: NevB on September 15, 2019, 03:08:06 PM
Australia

‘Critical’: parts of regional NSW set to run out of water by November
Quote
WaterNSW warns without significant rain, Macquarie River will run dry, wiping out supply to Dubbo, Cobar, Nyngan and Narromine

Parts of regional New South Wales could run out of water as early as November with data showing the worst-case scenario for the state if there’s no rain or government intervention.

........

I don't know what government intervention is planed as both the governments at both state and federal are in denial, trucking vast quantities of water is probably the only option. For some background Dubbo is the largest town with around 40k population.

Forecasts aren't showing any signs of significant rain which will make this summer challenging.
The next strong El-Nino, which brings hotter and drier conditions, could well depopulate these towns as they primarily exist to support farming which will collapse if the drought continues into an El-Nino season.

We live in interesting times.



Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 16, 2019, 02:33:21 PM
The drought is now so severe it is biting in even the greenest corners of the country
Farmers along Australia's normally green eastern coast are reeling from the worst drought they have ever seen and face a tough summer if it doesn't rain in the next few months.
Quote
Key points:
• Even the greenest parts of the east coast are now feeling the effects of the drought
• Some areas of the NSW mid-north coast have only received 20 per cent of their annual rainfall
• Farmers have taken on work off the farm or are selling stock to make ends meet

The NSW mid-north coast is usually a lush part of the country, with reliable rain and regular flooding.  But the region has been in drought for two years now and farmers say it is starting to bite.

"We normally get 40 inches of rain [a year] and I think we are up to around 8 inches," fourth-generation beef farmer Tony Saul told 7.30.  "And that might be all we're going to get for the year."

He is standing in a dry river bed that stretches for hundreds of metres through his property near Kempsey.  It's usually full of water where his cattle drink.

"This is the longest and the driest it's been since I can remember and I've been here for my whole life," Mr Saul said.  "We've had dry periods — you know, it might be dry for three or four months.

"But it's been dry for 12 months here and the big concern is we've just been through our wet period of the calendar year." ...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-16/drought-now-affecting-even-the-greenest-parts-of-the-country/11487026
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 16, 2019, 02:41:12 PM
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/#tabs=Rainfall-tracker
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 16, 2019, 05:23:05 PM
Related to: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,622.msg226497.html#msg226497

and https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2452.msg228920.html#msg228920

---------------------

Rare Weather Event Over Antarctica Driving Australia's Hot, Dry Outlook
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-06/rare-weather-event-over-antarctica-drives-hot-outlook/11481498

A rare event that took place 30 kilometres above the South Pole last week is expected to impact upon Australia's rainfall outlook.

https://vimeo.com/355223739

The upper atmosphere above Antarctica warmed by as much as 40 degrees Celsius in the course of a few days — and it is continuing to warm.

This rare phenomenon, known as sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), could deepen one of the worst droughts in Australian history.

The Bureau of Meteorology's Harry Hendon warned of dry weather ahead.

"We will typically see conditions across most of Australia, but primarily concentrated in the eastern part of Australia, become warmer and drier through spring and into early summer," Dr Hendon said.

SSW is rare in the southern hemisphere with only one major event ever identified, in 2002 — one of Australia's driest years on record.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cb/2002decileanomaly_-_new.gif)
2002 Rainfall Anomalies

Dr Hendon said similar, less intense stratospheric warmings had been linked to other dry years in Australia.

"In the past 30 years we probably have had five or six occurrences that didn't quite qualify as a sudden stratospheric warming," he said.

... Sudden stratospheric warming over Antarctica causes westerly winds south of Australia to track further north, a pattern meteorologists refer to as a 'negative SAM'.

In spring and summer, this negative SAM pattern brings warmer, drier air into southern Queensland and New South Wales.

"We looked at what happened over that period and we're pretty confident that we will see an increase in temperatures and a decrease in rainfall in central-eastern Australia in the following months."

(https://www.abc.net.au/news/image/11481866-3x2-700x467.jpg)

"Unfortunately, these are areas already in drought," said a lead author of the BOM's spring climate outlook, Andrew Watkins.

Dr Watkins said cooler than normal water in the Indian Ocean, a phenomenon meteorologists call a 'positive IOD', has led to a lack of moisture drifting over the continent.

(https://www.abc.net.au/cm/rimage/11481884-3x2-large.jpg?v=3)

"This has certainly been a big factor in why winter has been so dry in virtually all of Australia," he said

On top of that, we have the likelihood of prolonged periods of negative SAM, which also brings drier conditions to New South Wales and southern Queensland.

Dr Watkins said the impact of the SSW may be felt in Australia through to the end of the year.

"These sudden stratospheric warming events and the patterns that we see from them can go from September [to] October, sometimes persisting through to January," he said.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on September 17, 2019, 01:24:08 AM
Australia Lowers Wheat Export Forecast by 7.7% on Drought
https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/australia-lowers-wheat-export-forecast-by-77-on-drought

SYDNEY, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Australia on Tuesday lowered its forecast for wheat exports for the 2019/20 season by 7.7% as a prolonged drought wilts supplies.

The reduction comes after Australia's chief commodity forecaster last week cut its production forecast for the 2019/20 harvest by nearly 10% as the drought leaves crops struggling to survive.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) on Tuesday said wheat exports would total 10.8 million tonnes in the crop year beginning in July, down from its previous estimate in June of 11.7 million tonnes.

Smaller Australian exports will also be a drag on the country's stuttering economy.

Wheat is the country's most lucrative rural export from an agricultural sector worth about A$50 billion ($34.39 billion).

With dwindling supplies, Australian end-users have required rare imports. ABARES said that as off Aug. 30, licences to import 300,000 tonnes of Canadian wheat have been issued.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Rodius on September 18, 2019, 12:25:12 PM
And towns are about to run out of water soon.

Oddly, this information hadnt been released by the Govt until last week.... almost as if they were trying to hide it.

At what point do we stop calling it a drought and start calling it desertification?

https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/15/parts-of-regional-nsw-set-to-run-out-of-water-by-november
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on October 03, 2019, 11:04:59 PM
'Flash Drought' Worsening Across 14 Southern US States
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-drought-worsening-southern-states.html

More than 45 million people across 14 Southern states are now in the midst of what's being called a "flash drought" that's cracking farm soil, drying up ponds and raising the risk of wildfires, scientists said Thursday.

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report released Thursday shows extreme drought conditions in parts of Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina and the Florida panhandle. Lesser drought conditions also have expanded in parts of Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi.

Overall, nearly 20 percent of the lower 48 U.S. states is experiencing drought conditions.

... The drought was affecting some water supplies across the region. Lake levels have been falling throughout Georgia, including at Lake Lanier, which provides much of Atlanta's drinking water. ...

(https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/jpg/20191001/20191001_usdm.jpg)
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on October 10, 2019, 02:28:58 PM
'Flash Drought' Brings Dust and Dread to Southern Farmers
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-drought-dread-southern-farmers.html

... The USDA crop report shows nearly a quarter of the cotton crop is in poor or very poor condition in Texas, where more than 13 million people—more than half the state's population—are experiencing drought conditions, the center reported. Extreme drought spread into several new areas of central and eastern Texas in recent weeks.

The situation is also dire in North Carolina, where 40% of the cotton and 30% of the corn is in poor or very poor shape. In Georgia, nearly 20% of the peanut crop is in poor or very poor condition, the report shows.


The heat has played a large factor, forecasters say. In August, high temperatures and humidity sent the heat index soaring across the South. The heat index—what it actually feels like—rose to 121 degrees (49.4 Celsius) in Clarksdale, Mississippi, on Aug. 12. And that heat stuck around, carrying record high temperatures into October. Several Alabama cities this year have seen their hottest October temperature ever recorded.

... "It's been probably better than 60 days since we had any precipitation that amounted to anything," ... "The dust is just relentless.".

.. "It is frustrating with the weather, complicated by cattle prices not as high as we'd like to see them," ... "So if you are forced to sell, then you're going to have less income. It just all plays into the frustration of trying to make a living farming."
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 10, 2019, 03:20:31 PM
Much of the drought can be tied to the lack of landfalling tropical systems.  The Jet stream has brought pleniful rains north of the Appalachians, but little to the south.  This is typically the wettest time of the year, but the Gulf and Caribbean have not been cooperating. 
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: sidd on October 10, 2019, 10:27:00 PM
That cotton report is interesting. The USA subsidizes cotton by over 50 billion US$/yr. to the dismay of other cotton growing countries. There is already pushback from africa, and china has been making noises in support of Africa. Will be interesting to see if the cotton farmers can extract more subsidies from the federal teat.

Cotton is a  very demanding crop, exhausts the soil very quickly.

sidd
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: TerryM on October 10, 2019, 11:27:32 PM
^^
I remember a lot of desert land around Coolidge AZ that had once been cotton fields.
After ~ a decade of diminishing returns they found that even native cactus had difficulty making a comeback.
Terry
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on October 10, 2019, 11:46:06 PM
^
And this is what Coolidge AZ soil looks like today when it blows over Phoenix AZ.

(https://petapixel.com/assets/uploads/2018/08/7fhqmIl-800x600.jpg)

When I lived in Phoenix in the 80s, dust storms occurred 1-2 times a year; now it's 10-15 times a year. I've seen that 'soil' in Coolidge - it's nothing but dust (... mixed with a lot of pesticides)
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: TerryM on October 11, 2019, 01:11:37 AM
^^
Great picture illustrating that upward mobility is still possible, even in AridZona. ;)
Terry
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: nanning on December 07, 2019, 11:04:18 AM
   Victoria Falls dries to a trickle after worst drought in a century


One of southern Africa’s biggest tourist attractions has seen an unprecedented decline this dry season, fuelling climate change fears

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/07/victoria-falls-dries-to-a-trickle-after-worst-drought-in-a-century
  by Reuters at Victoria Falls


  Excerpts:
For decades Victoria Falls, where southern Africa’s Zambezi river cascades down 100 metres into a gash in the earth, have drawn millions of holidaymakers to Zimbabwe and Zambia for their stunning views.

But the worst drought in a century has slowed the waterfalls to a trickle, fuelling fears that climate change could kill one of the region’s biggest tourist attractions.

While they typically slow down during the dry season, officials said this year had brought an unprecedented decline in water levels.

“In previous years, when it gets dry, it’s not to this extent,” Dominic Nyambe, a seller of tourist handicrafts in his 30s, said outside his shop in Livingstone, on the Zambian side. “This [is] our first experience of seeing it like this.

“It affects us because ... clients ... can see on the internet [that the falls are low] ... We don’t have so many tourists.”

"..southern Africa is already suffering some of its worst effects – with taps running dry and about 45 million people in need of food aid amid crop failures"
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: El Cid on December 07, 2019, 12:25:51 PM
^^
I remember a lot of desert land around Coolidge AZ that had once been cotton fields.
After ~ a decade of diminishing returns they found that even native cactus had difficulty making a comeback.
Terry

We screwed up the soil big time. Most of these dustsorms are man made. Not because of less rain but because we destroyed the soil
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: nanning on December 19, 2019, 03:04:12 PM
Namibia's power supply squeezed as drought hits hydropower plant
  by Reuters

http://news.trust.org/item/20191218101311-y6fjr/


The drought, plus power blackouts at South African power company Eskom, on which Namibia relies for 70% of its energy requirements, has put the security of the country's electricity supply at risk.

WINDHOEK, Dec 18 (Reuters) - Namibia's electricity generation has dropped to below 40% of its capacity as the worst drought in almost a century has hit the country's own hydropower plant and others in the region reliant on water from dams and rivers.



The Kariba hydroelectric plant, which serves Zimbabwe and Zambia and is fed by the Zambezi river, has also been hit by a substantial fall in water levels.

Zambezi River Authority Chief Executive Munyaradzi Munadawafa said last week the Kariba might have to reduce generation drastically, perhaps even to the point where the plant shuts down.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on December 21, 2019, 07:15:03 PM
Water Thieves Steal 80,000 Gallons in Australia as Our Mad Max-Style Future Becomes Reality
https://earther.gizmodo.com/water-thieves-steal-80-000-gallons-in-australia-as-our-1840549648?utm_medium=socialflow&utm_campaign=socialflow_gizmodo_facebook&utm_source=gizmodo_facebook&fbclid=IwAR1k8Iuo8QY1kI3fT7mLikIAoazXT_lojbuU4gVt4gVyVWIafSn0OGtQQbA

Thieves stole roughly 80,000 gallons of water in a region of Australia that’s suffering from one of the worst droughts in the history of the country. And with record-breaking heat and bushfires getting even larger, it feels like Australia is living in the future. That future, unfortunately, looks a lot like Mad Max.

Police in New South Wales, Australia’s most populous state, report that a farmer in the small town of Evans Plain had about 80,000 gallons of water (300,000 liters) stolen from his property, according to the Australian newspaper. The farmer only noticed the theft from two enormous storage tanks on Sunday, though it could have happened at anytime between December 9 and December 15, according to authorities.

It’s becoming more and more common to see thieves targeting water storage facilities, as climate change continues to devastate Australia as it heads into summer. Just a couple of weeks ago, thieves in the small town of Murwillumbah stole about 6,600 gallons (25,000 liters) of water, enough to fill about six or seven fire trucks, according to local authorities.

And it all feels like something out of a sci-fi dystopia, where battles over water are fought to sustain a meager existence.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on January 01, 2020, 02:20:32 PM
Water Shortages Afflict Panama Canal, 20 Years After its Transfer
https://dw.com/en/water-shortages-dog-panama-canal-20-years-after-its-transfer/a-51847280

The Panama Canal's handover from the United States 20 years ago has been marked in Panama amid water supply worries. Managers say less rainfall due to climate change has depleted the inter-ocean conduit's Gatun Lake.

... Recurrent droughts left the 80 kilometer-long (50 mile) system of locks with only 3 billion cubic meters of water this past year, instead of the 5.2 billion cubic meters needed, according to the canal authority (ACP).

Gatun Lake, which sustains the waterway and provides local drinking water, is also losing volume by evaporation, with its temperature up 1.5° Celsius in the past decade.

Currently, the region's rainfall deficit is 27% compared with the average, said the ACP.

Administrator Ricaurte Vasquez on Tuesday blamed climate change, drawing attention to Panama's costly ideas of desalinating seawater or building reservoirs.

... Already, canal officials fear that ships transiting Pacific-Atlantic waters across the narrow Central American isthmus will opt for other global routes, such as Egypt's Suez Canal or Arctic transits north of Russia or Canada as polar ice melts.

The Panama Canal handled 451 million tons of goods in 2019, representing 3.5% of world trade — down from 5% previously.

Consolidation of Asian economies, amid US-China trade standoffs, had also put the canal's prospects in difficulty said Horacio Estribi, an adviser to Panama's economy minister.
Title: Re: Drought 2019
Post by: vox_mundi on January 02, 2020, 05:45:14 PM
A Warning from Ancient Tree Rings: The Americas Are Prone to Catastrophic, Simultaneous Droughts
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/12/warning-ancient-tree-rings-americas-are-prone-catastrophic-simultaneous-droughts

For 10 years, central Chile has been gripped by unrelenting drought. With 30% less rainfall than normal, verdant landscapes have withered, reservoirs are low, and more than 100,000 farm animals have died. The dry spell has lasted so long that researchers are calling it a “megadrought,” rivaling dry stretches centuries ago. It’s not so different from the decadelong drought that California, some 8000 kilometers away, endured until this year.

By analyzing tree ring records, scientists have now found evidence that such tandem droughts are more than a coincidence: They are surprisingly common over the past 1200 years, and they may often share a common cause—an abnormally cool state of the eastern Pacific Ocean known as La Niña. “We did not expect there to be as much coherence as we see,” says Nathan Steiger, a paleoclimatologist at Columbia University who presented the work this month at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union. “They just happen together.” The results suggest that, in the future, extreme aridity could strike all along the Americas’ western coast.

... Steiger combined tree-ring records with thousands of other proxies for dryness and temperature from trees, corals, ocean sediments, and ice cores, and fed them into a global climate model. Aligning itself to the records, it generated a global view of the changing climate, even in places with sparse proxies. The model confirmed that, from 800 to 1600 C.E., multiple megadroughts occurred simultaneously across the hemispheres. “It’s there,” Cook says. “Without question, it’s there.”

Besides correlating the varied climate records, the model also identified the key factors driving the climate variations. Steiger and his co-authors, including Cook, first used the new tool to look at megadroughts in the U.S. Southwest. Their study, published this year in Science Advances, is “amazing,” says David Stahle, a tree ring scientist at the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville. “It’s a bit like … they took those black-and-white films and colorized them.” They found that megadroughts in the Southwest were influenced by three factors: an anomalously warm North Atlantic Ocean, small global temperature rises driven by factors such as a brightening Sun, and, especially, La Niña. The cold cousin of El Niño, La Niña can persist for years, deflecting rainstorms away from their usual tracks.

In the new work, the team finds that La Niña is almost the sole driver of the South American megadroughts. And because La Niña affects conditions on both sides of the equator, it could plausibly trigger simultaneous droughts in both hemispheres.

Open Access: Nathan Steiger, et.al. Oceanic and radiative forcing of medieval megadroughts in the American Southwest (https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/7/eaax0087), Science Advances 2019